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Sample records for system dynamics model

  1. Dynamic Modeling of ALS Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Harry

    2002-01-01

    The purpose of dynamic modeling and simulation of Advanced Life Support (ALS) systems is to help design them. Static steady state systems analysis provides basic information and is necessary to guide dynamic modeling, but static analysis is not sufficient to design and compare systems. ALS systems must respond to external input variations and internal off-nominal behavior. Buffer sizing, resupply scheduling, failure response, and control system design are aspects of dynamic system design. We develop two dynamic mass flow models and use them in simulations to evaluate systems issues, optimize designs, and make system design trades. One model is of nitrogen leakage in the space station, the other is of a waste processor failure in a regenerative life support system. Most systems analyses are concerned with optimizing the cost/benefit of a system at its nominal steady-state operating point. ALS analysis must go beyond the static steady state to include dynamic system design. All life support systems exhibit behavior that varies over time. ALS systems must respond to equipment operating cycles, repair schedules, and occasional off-nominal behavior or malfunctions. Biological components, such as bioreactors, composters, and food plant growth chambers, usually have operating cycles or other complex time behavior. Buffer sizes, material stocks, and resupply rates determine dynamic system behavior and directly affect system mass and cost. Dynamic simulation is needed to avoid the extremes of costly over-design of buffers and material reserves or system failure due to insufficient buffers and lack of stored material.

  2. Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Morten Haack

    2006-01-01

    An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...... insight. It is based on a sensitivity approach that is useful for choice of model structure, for experiment design, and for accuracy verification. The method is implemented in the Matlab toolkit Senstools. The method and the presentation have been developed with generally preferred learning styles in mind...

  3. System dynamics modelling of situation awareness

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Oosthuizen, R

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available . The feedback loops and delays in the Command and Control system also contribute to the complex dynamic behavior. This paper will build on existing situation awareness models to develop a System Dynamics model to support a qualitative investigation through...

  4. Very Large System Dynamics Models - Lessons Learned

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacob J. Jacobson; Leonard Malczynski

    2008-10-01

    This paper provides lessons learned from developing several large system dynamics (SD) models. System dynamics modeling practice emphasize the need to keep models small so that they are manageable and understandable. This practice is generally reasonable and prudent; however, there are times that large SD models are necessary. This paper outlines two large SD projects that were done at two Department of Energy National Laboratories, the Idaho National Laboratory and Sandia National Laboratories. This paper summarizes the models and then discusses some of the valuable lessons learned during these two modeling efforts.

  5. Dynamic modeling of the INAPRO aquaponic system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Karimanzira, Divas; Keesman, Karel J.; Kloas, Werner; Baganz, Daniela; Rauschenbach, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    The use of modeling techniques to analyze aquaponics systems is demonstrated with an example of dynamic modeling for the production of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicon) using the innovative double recirculating aquaponic system ASTAF-PRO. For the management

  6. Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jamie C. Gorman

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals in the context of teams, (c describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area.

  7. Session 6: Dynamic Modeling and Systems Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Csank, Jeffrey; Chapman, Jeffryes; May, Ryan

    2013-01-01

    These presentations cover some of the ongoing work in dynamic modeling and dynamic systems analysis. The first presentation discusses dynamic systems analysis and how to integrate dynamic performance information into the systems analysis. The ability to evaluate the dynamic performance of an engine design may allow tradeoffs between the dynamic performance and operability of a design resulting in a more efficient engine design. The second presentation discusses the Toolbox for Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS). T-MATS is a Simulation system with a library containing the basic building blocks that can be used to create dynamic Thermodynamic Systems. Some of the key features include Turbo machinery components, such as turbines, compressors, etc., and basic control system blocks. T-MAT is written in the Matlab-Simulink environment and is open source software. The third presentation focuses on getting additional performance from the engine by allowing the limit regulators only to be active when a limit is danger of being violated. Typical aircraft engine control architecture is based on MINMAX scheme, which is designed to keep engine operating within prescribed mechanical/operational safety limits. Using a conditionally active min-max limit regulator scheme, additional performance can be gained by disabling non-relevant limit regulators

  8. Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edson Crescitelli

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings

  9. Modelling and parameter estimation of dynamic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Raol, JR; Singh, J

    2004-01-01

    Parameter estimation is the process of using observations from a system to develop mathematical models that adequately represent the system dynamics. The assumed model consists of a finite set of parameters, the values of which are calculated using estimation techniques. Most of the techniques that exist are based on least-square minimization of error between the model response and actual system response. However, with the proliferation of high speed digital computers, elegant and innovative techniques like filter error method, H-infinity and Artificial Neural Networks are finding more and mor

  10. Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Red-Horse, J.R.

    1997-04-01

    Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

  11. System and mathematical modeling of quadrotor dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Jacob M.; Kim, Jinho; Gadsden, S. Andrew; Wilkerson, Stephen A.

    2015-05-01

    Unmanned aerial systems (UAS) are becoming increasingly visible in our daily lives; and range in operation from search and rescue, monitoring hazardous environments, and to the delivery of goods. One of the most popular UAS are based on a quad-rotor design. These are typically small devices that rely on four propellers for lift and movement. Quad-rotors are inherently unstable, and rely on advanced control methodologies to keep them operating safely and behaving in a predictable and desirable manner. The control of these devices can be enhanced and improved by making use of an accurate dynamic model. In this paper, we examine a simple quadrotor model, and note some of the additional dynamic considerations that were left out. We then compare simulation results of the simple model with that of another comprehensive model.

  12. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fallah-Fini, Saeideh; Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2013-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model.

  13. Connecting micro dynamics and population distributions in system dynamics models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Chen, Hsin-Jen; Xue, Hong; Wang, Youfa

    2014-01-01

    Researchers use system dynamics models to capture the mean behavior of groups of indistinguishable population elements (e.g., people) aggregated in stock variables. Yet, many modeling problems require capturing the heterogeneity across elements with respect to some attribute(s) (e.g., body weight). This paper presents a new method to connect the micro-level dynamics associated with elements in a population with the macro-level population distribution along an attribute of interest without the need to explicitly model every element. We apply the proposed method to model the distribution of Body Mass Index and its changes over time in a sample population of American women obtained from the U.S. National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey. Comparing the results with those obtained from an individual-based model that captures the same phenomena shows that our proposed method delivers accurate results with less computation than the individual-based model. PMID:25620842

  14. Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anne M. Estes

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available “Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1 niche availability and habitat space and 2 a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determine what the person with the microbiome “ate.” Students then model the effect of taking antibiotics by removing certain “antibiotic sensitive” pasta. Finally, they add in “environmental microbes” or “native microbes” to recolonize the digestive system, determine how resilient their model microbome community is to disturbance, and discuss the implications. Throughout the exercise, students discuss differences in the habitat space available and microbiome community diversity. This exercise can be modified to discuss changes in the microbiome due to diet shifts and the emergence of antibiotic resistance in more depth.

  15. Dynamic Modeling of Solar Dynamic Components and Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hochstein, John I.; Korakianitis, T.

    1992-01-01

    The purpose of this grant was to support NASA in modeling efforts to predict the transient dynamic and thermodynamic response of the space station solar dynamic power generation system. In order to meet the initial schedule requirement of providing results in time to support installation of the system as part of the initial phase of space station, early efforts were executed with alacrity and often in parallel. Initially, methods to predict the transient response of a Rankine as well as a Brayton cycle were developed. Review of preliminary design concepts led NASA to select a regenerative gas-turbine cycle using a helium-xenon mixture as the working fluid and, from that point forward, the modeling effort focused exclusively on that system. Although initial project planning called for a three year period of performance, revised NASA schedules moved system installation to later and later phases of station deployment. Eventually, NASA selected to halt development of the solar dynamic power generation system for space station and to reduce support for this project to two-thirds of the original level.

  16. A System Dynamic Model of Leader Emergence

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-03-01

    Judge, 2004; Judge, Bono, Ilies, & Gerhardt, 2002; Eagly, Johanneses-Schmidt, & Van Engen , 2003; Taggar, Hackett, & Saha, 1999; Stogdill, 1948...System dynamics emerged from the study of electrical control systems, and when generalized found many useful applications in natural systems outside...of the electrical world (Forrester, 1992). Whereas correlations describe cause and effect relationships in a linear equation, system dynamics

  17. Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J

    2017-09-16

    Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.

  18. Hybrid Dynamical Systems Modeling, Stability, and Robustness

    CERN Document Server

    Goebel, Rafal; Teel, Andrew R

    2012-01-01

    Hybrid dynamical systems exhibit continuous and instantaneous changes, having features of continuous-time and discrete-time dynamical systems. Filled with a wealth of examples to illustrate concepts, this book presents a complete theory of robust asymptotic stability for hybrid dynamical systems that is applicable to the design of hybrid control algorithms--algorithms that feature logic, timers, or combinations of digital and analog components. With the tools of modern mathematical analysis, Hybrid Dynamical Systems unifies and generalizes earlier developments in continuous-time and discret

  19. Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

    CERN Document Server

    Ukkusuri, Satish V

    2013-01-01

    This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

  20. Dynamical system analysis of interacting models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carneiro, S.; Borges, H. A.

    2018-01-01

    We perform a dynamical system analysis of a cosmological model with linear dependence between the vacuum density and the Hubble parameter, with constant-rate creation of dark matter. We show that the de Sitter spacetime is an asymptotically stable critical point, future limit of any expanding solution. Our analysis also shows that the Minkowski spacetime is an unstable critical point, which eventually collapses to a singularity. In this way, such a prescription for the vacuum decay not only predicts the correct future de Sitter limit, but also forbids the existence of a stable Minkowski universe. We also study the effect of matter creation on the growth of structures and their peculiar velocities, showing that it is inside the current errors of redshift space distortions observations.

  1. Modelling the crop: from system dynamics to systems biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, X.; Struik, P.C.

    2010-01-01

    There is strong interplant competition in a crop stand for various limiting resources, resulting in complex compensation and regulation mechanisms along the developmental cascade of the whole crop. Despite decades-long use of principles in system dynamics (e.g. feedback control), current crop models

  2. OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C Brandon Ogbunugafor

    Full Text Available Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL. Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.

  3. Dynamic Modeling of ThermoFluid Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Jakob Munch

    2003-01-01

    The objective of the present study has been to developed dynamic models for two-phase flow in pipes (evaporation and condensation). Special attention has been given to modeling evaporators for refrigeration plant particular dry-expansion evaporators. Models of different complexity have been...... formulated. The different models deviate with respect to the detail¿s included and calculation time in connection with simulation. The models have been implemented in a new library named ThermoTwoPhase to the programming language Modelica. A test rig has been built with an evaporator instrumented in a way...... that the models can be validated against experimental data. The models developed van be used in connection with intelligent control of refrigerant flow to dry-expansion evaporators....

  4. Analytical system dynamics modeling and simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Fabien, Brian C

    2008-01-01

    This book offering a modeling technique based on Lagrange's energy method includes 125 worked examples. Using this technique enables one to model and simulate systems as diverse as a six-link, closed-loop mechanism or a transistor power amplifier.

  5. Dynamic modelling of packaging material flow systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsiliyannis, Christos A

    2005-04-01

    A dynamic model has been developed for reused and recycled packaging material flows. It allows a rigorous description of the flows and stocks during the transition to new targets imposed by legislation, product demand variations or even by variations in consumer discard behaviour. Given the annual reuse and recycle frequency and packaging lifetime, the model determines all packaging flows (e.g., consumption and reuse) and variables through which environmental policy is formulated, such as recycling, waste and reuse rates and it identifies the minimum number of variables to be surveyed for complete packaging flow monitoring. Simulation of the transition to the new flow conditions is given for flows of packaging materials in Greece, based on 1995--1998 field inventory and statistical data.

  6. Generic solar photovoltaic system dynamic simulation model specification

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellis, Abraham [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Behnke, Michael Robert [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Elliott, Ryan Thomas [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2013-10-01

    This document is intended to serve as a specification for generic solar photovoltaic (PV) system positive-sequence dynamic models to be implemented by software developers and approved by the WECC MVWG for use in bulk system dynamic simulations in accordance with NERC MOD standards. Two specific dynamic models are included in the scope of this document. The first, a Central Station PV System model, is intended to capture the most important dynamic characteristics of large scale (> 10 MW) PV systems with a central Point of Interconnection (POI) at the transmission level. The second, a Distributed PV System model, is intended to represent an aggregation of smaller, distribution-connected systems that comprise a portion of a composite load that might be modeled at a transmission load bus.

  7. Automated Qualitative Modeling of Dynamic Physical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-01-01

    Resnick, Naomi Ribner, Ruth Schonfeld, Re- becca Simmons, Cindy Wible, and especially David Clemens, Nomi Harris, Michele Popper , Karen Sarachik, and...describe a part of a system by using a component name, such as "mo- tor." MM accepts both geometric and component descriptions, and allows t, e two...not a scientific discovery program along the lines of, say, BACON [201, which could also be said to be constructing models of systems. Thus the first

  8. The System Dynamics Model User Sustainability Explorer (SD-MUSE): a user-friendly tool for interpreting system dynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    System Dynamics (SD) models are useful for holistic integration of data to evaluate indirect and cumulative effects and inform decisions. Complex SD models can provide key insights into how decisions affect the three interconnected pillars of sustainability. However, the complexi...

  9. Handbook of electrical power system dynamics modeling, stability, and control

    CERN Document Server

    Eremia, Mircea

    2013-01-01

    Complete guidance for understanding electrical power system dynamics and blackouts This handbook offers a comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of power system dynamics. Addressing the full range of topics, from the fundamentals to the latest technologies in modeling, stability, and control, Handbook of Electrical Power System Dynamics provides engineers with hands-on guidance for understanding the phenomena leading to blackouts so they can design the most appropriate solutions for a cost-effective and reliable operation. Focusing on system dynamics, the book details

  10. Cognitive Models for Learning to Control Dynamic Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eberhart, Russ; Hu, Xiaohui; Chen, Yaobin

    2008-01-01

    Report developed under STTR contract for topic "Cognitive models for learning to control dynamic systems" demonstrated a swarm intelligence learning algorithm and its application in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mission planning...

  11. Dynamic Systems Modeling in Educational System Design & Policy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Groff, Jennifer Sterling

    2013-01-01

    Over the last several hundred years, local and national educational systems have evolved from relatively simple systems to incredibly complex, interdependent, policy-laden structures, to which many question their value, effectiveness, and direction they are headed. System Dynamics is a field of analysis used to guide policy and system design in…

  12. Volume Dynamics Propulsion System Modeling for Supersonics Vehicle Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Paxson, Daniel E.; Ma, Peter

    2010-01-01

    Under the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program the Supersonics Project is working to overcome the obstacles to supersonic commercial flight. The proposed vehicles are long slim body aircraft with pronounced aero-servo-elastic modes. These modes can potentially couple with propulsion system dynamics; leading to performance challenges such as aircraft ride quality and stability. Other disturbances upstream of the engine generated from atmospheric wind gusts, angle of attack, and yaw can have similar effects. In addition, for optimal propulsion system performance, normal inlet-engine operations are required to be closer to compressor stall and inlet unstart. To study these phenomena an integrated model is needed that includes both airframe structural dynamics as well as the propulsion system dynamics. This paper covers the propulsion system component volume dynamics modeling of a turbojet engine that will be used for an integrated vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic model and for propulsion efficiency studies.

  13. A Dynamic Systems Theory Model of Visual Perception Development

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coté, Carol A.

    2015-01-01

    This article presents a model for understanding the development of visual perception from a dynamic systems theory perspective. It contrasts to a hierarchical or reductionist model that is often found in the occupational therapy literature. In this proposed model vision and ocular motor abilities are not foundational to perception, they are seen…

  14. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...

  15. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...... provides a description of the wind turbine modelling, both at a component level and at a system level....

  16. Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...

  17. Mathematical Modeling and Dimension Reduction in Dynamical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Elmegård, Michael

    Processes that change in time are in mathematics typically described by differential equations. These may be applied to model everything from weather forecasting, brain patterns, reaction kinetics, water waves, finance, social dynamics, structural dynamics and electrodynamics to name only a few....... These systems are generically nonlinear and the studies of them often become enormously complex. The framework in which such systems are best understood is via the theory of dynamical systems, where the critical behavior is systematically analyzed by performing bifurcation theory. In that context the current...

  18. SYSTEM DYNAMIC MODEL OF MARKETING IN HOTEL COMPANY

    OpenAIRE

    Milić Beran, Ivona; Briš Alić, Martina; Antunica, Nikica

    2017-01-01

    The subject of this paper is qualitative as well as quantitative system dynamics modeling of the marketing department in a hotel company. It is known that there is an increasing number of tourists in Croatia and also that in some regions hotel capacities are insufficient so hotel management has a major challenge to make decisions about increasing hotel capacities. The dynamic model, in this study, is oriented towards building new hotel capacities according to the increased demand. The paper ...

  19. Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems

    CERN Document Server

    In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio

    2009-01-01

    This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.

  20. Synthesized dynamic modeling and stability analysis of novel HVDC system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu Sun; Li Kong [Inst. of Electrical Engineering, CAS, BJ (China)

    2008-07-01

    At the present time, many projects large offshore wind power fields connecting to the grid adopt the novel HVDC technology. Voltage source converter structure and PWM modulation technology are used in the system and active power and reactive power can be controlled respectively, so it can ensure the excellent performance of the projects. It is very necessary to build its detailed dynamic model and analyze its stability to be the base for further research. In this paper, firstly, the switch function model is established as the base of further analysis. Secondly, the steady model, small signal model and high frequency dynamic model of novel HVDC based on state space average method are established respectively. Thirdly, the stability of the whole system is analyzed on the base of above models of the novel HVDC. Finally, the whole system is validated practically by simulation analysis to prove the validity of model and stability analysis. (orig.)

  1. Integrated dynamic modeling and management system mission analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, A.K.

    1994-12-28

    This document summarizes the mission analysis performed on the Integrated Dynamic Modeling and Management System (IDMMS). The IDMMS will be developed to provide the modeling and analysis capability required to understand the TWRS system behavior in terms of the identified TWRS performance measures. The IDMMS will be used to demonstrate in a verified and validated manner the satisfactory performance of the TWRS system configuration and assurance that the requirements have been satisfied.

  2. Integrated dynamic modeling and management system mission analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, A.K.

    1994-01-01

    This document summarizes the mission analysis performed on the Integrated Dynamic Modeling and Management System (IDMMS). The IDMMS will be developed to provide the modeling and analysis capability required to understand the TWRS system behavior in terms of the identified TWRS performance measures. The IDMMS will be used to demonstrate in a verified and validated manner the satisfactory performance of the TWRS system configuration and assurance that the requirements have been satisfied

  3. Systemic risk: the dynamics of model banking systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    May, Robert M; Arinaminpathy, Nimalan

    2010-05-06

    The recent banking crises have made it clear that increasingly complex strategies for managing risk in individual banks have not been matched by corresponding attention to overall systemic risks. We explore some simple mathematical caricatures for 'banking ecosystems', with emphasis on the interplay between the characteristics of individual banks (capital reserves in relation to total assets, etc.) and the overall dynamical behaviour of the system. The results are discussed in relation to potential regulations aimed at reducing systemic risk.

  4. Soil Models and Vehicle System Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-07

    soil was modeled using the parametric CU-ARL sand model. The vehicle consisted of interconnected subcomponents which include the chassis , suspension...Reece, A.R., 1965, “Principles of Soil-Vehicle Mechanics”, Proceedings of the Institution of Mechanical Engineers, Automobile Division, 180(2A), pp...77 Mechanical Engineers, Part D: Journal of Automobile Engineering, 223(11), pp. 1419- 1434. [99] Xia, K

  5. The financial accounting model from a system dynamics' perspective

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Melse, E.

    2006-01-01

    This paper explores the foundation of the financial accounting model. We examine the properties of the accounting equation as the principal algorithm for the design and the development of a System Dynamics model. Key to the perspective is the foundational requirement that resolves the temporal

  6. Stochastic modelling of dynamical systems in biology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pellin, Danilo

    2017-01-01

    In this thesis two relevant biological problems will be addressed from a statistical modelling perspective. The first regards the study of hematopoiesis, a still not well understood biological process rarely observable in humans due to technical and ethical reasons. Hematopoiesis is responsible for

  7. Neural networks for nonlinear dynamic system modelling and identification

    OpenAIRE

    Chen, S.; Billings, S. A.

    1992-01-01

    Many real-world systems exhibit complex non-linear characteristics and cannot be treated satisfactorily using linear systems theory. A neural network which has the ability to learn sophisticated non-linear relationships provides an ideal means of modelling complicated non-linear systems. This paper addresses the issues related to the identification of non-linear discrete-time dynamic systems using neural networks..........

  8. System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience in Nuclear Power Plants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Florah, Kamanj; Kim, Jonghyun

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to model and evaluate emergency operation system (EOS) resilience using the System Dynamics. System Dynamics is the study of causal interactions between elements of a complex system. This paper identifies the EOS resilience attributes and their interactions by constructing a causal loop diagram. Then, the interactions are quantified based on literature review and simulated to analyze resilience dynamics. This paper describes the use of system dynamics to improve understanding of the resilience dynamics of complex systems such as emergency operation systems. This paper takes into account two aspects; the strength of resilience attributes interactions and the quantification of dynamic behaviour of resilience over time. This model can be applied to review NPP safety in terms of the resilience level and organization. Simulation results can give managers insights to support their decisions in safety management. A nuclear power plant (NPP) is classified as a safety critical organization whose safety objective is to control hazards that can cause significant harm to the environment, public, or personnel. There has been a significant improvement of safety designs as well as risk analysis tools and methods applied in nuclear power plants over the last decade. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations they primarily focus on technical dimension, the analysis are linear and sequential, they are dominated by static models, they do not take a systemic view into account, and they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. Hence new approaches to risk analysis for NPPs are needed to complement the conventional approaches. Resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. An EOS in a NPP refers to a system consisting of personnel

  9. Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation

    CERN Document Server

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...

  10. Elements of a dynamic systems model of canopy photosynthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xin-Guang; Song, Qingfeng; Ort, Donald R

    2012-06-01

    Improving photosynthesis throughout the full canopy rather than photosynthesis of only the top leaves of the canopy is central to improving crop yields. Many canopy photosynthesis models have been developed from physiological and ecological perspectives, however most do not consider heterogeneities of microclimatic factors inside a canopy, canopy dynamics and associated energetics, or competition among different plants, and most models lack a direct linkage to molecular processes. Here we described the rationale, elements, and approaches necessary to build a dynamic systems model of canopy photosynthesis. A systems model should integrate metabolic processes including photosynthesis, respiration, nitrogen metabolism, resource re-mobilization and photosynthate partitioning with canopy level light, CO(2), water vapor distributions and heat exchange processes. In so doing a systems-based canopy photosynthesis model will enable studies of molecular ecology and dramatically improve our insight into engineering crops for improved canopy photosynthetic CO(2) uptake, resource use efficiencies and yields. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

    2015-03-01

    System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

  12. System Dynamics as Model-Based Theory Building

    OpenAIRE

    Schwaninger, Markus; Grösser, Stefan N.

    2008-01-01

    This paper introduces model-based theory building as a feature of system dynamics (SD) with large potential. It presents a systemic approach to actualizing that potential, thereby opening up a new perspective on theory building in the social sciences. The question addressed is if and how SD enables the construction of high-quality theories. This contribution is based on field experiment type projects which have been focused on model-based theory building, specifically the construction of a mi...

  13. The dynamics of general developmental mechanisms : From Piaget and Vygotsky to dynamic systems models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Geert, P

    Dynamic systems theory conceives of development as a self-organizational process. Both complexity and order emerge as a product of elementary principles of interaction between components involved in the developmental process. This article presents a dynamic systems model based on a general dual

  14. Dynamic causal models of neural system dynamics: current state ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Prakash

    2006-09-28

    Sep 28, 2006 ... 3. Principles of DCM. An important limitation of previous methods for determining effective connectivity from functional imaging data, e.g. structural equation modelling (McIntosh and Gonzalez-. Lima 1994; Büchel and Friston 1997) or multivariate autoregressive models (Goebel et al 2003; Harrison et al.

  15. Mathematical modeling of earth's dynamical systems a primer

    CERN Document Server

    Slingerland, Rudy

    2011-01-01

    Mathematical Modeling of Earth's Dynamical Systems gives earth scientists the essential skills for translating chemical and physical systems into mathematical and computational models that provide enhanced insight into Earth's processes. Using a step-by-step method, the book identifies the important geological variables of physical-chemical geoscience problems and describes the mechanisms that control these variables. This book is directed toward upper-level undergraduate students, graduate students, researchers, and professionals who want to learn how to abstract complex systems into sets of dynamic equations. It shows students how to recognize domains of interest and key factors, and how to explain assumptions in formal terms. The book reveals what data best tests ideas of how nature works, and cautions against inadequate transport laws, unconstrained coefficients, and unfalsifiable models. Various examples of processes and systems, and ample illustrations, are provided. Students using this text should be f...

  16. [Ageing and Alzheimer disease - system dynamics model prediction].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomášková, Hana; Kühnová, Jitka; Kuča, Kamil

    The aim of the paper is to describe asystem dynamics model applied on aprediction of the number of patients with Alzheimers disease in the EU in the future and related financial impacts. Dementia resulting from Alzheimers disease is the most widely spread type of dementia and is highly connected with the age of the person - the patient. Most people are diagnosed with Alzheimers disease when they are older than 64. The ageing of population will be an ongoing problem in the next few decades due to alow birth rate and increasing life expectancy. This is areason to focus on prediction models of Alzheimers disease and its impact on economy. The paper presents adynamic modelling approach of system dynamics. The created model of the EU population and patients with AD is expanded by afinancial submodel at the end. This submodel estimates the cost on patients from three available cost studies.Key words: systém dynamic Alzhimers disease population ageing.

  17. Nuclear Hybrid Energy System Modeling: RELAP5 Dynamic Coupling Capabilities

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Piyush Sabharwall; Nolan Anderson; Haihua Zhao; Shannon Bragg-Sitton; George Mesina

    2012-09-01

    The nuclear hybrid energy systems (NHES) research team is currently developing a dynamic simulation of an integrated hybrid energy system. A detailed simulation of proposed NHES architectures will allow initial computational demonstration of a tightly coupled NHES to identify key reactor subsystem requirements, identify candidate reactor technologies for a hybrid system, and identify key challenges to operation of the coupled system. This work will provide a baseline for later coupling of design-specific reactor models through industry collaboration. The modeling capability addressed in this report focuses on the reactor subsystem simulation.

  18. Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

  19. From dynamics to structure and function of model biomolecular systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fontaine-Vive-Curtaz, F.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to extend recent works on structure and dynamics of hydrogen bonded crystals to model biomolecular systems and biological processes. The tools that we have used are neutron scattering (NS) and density functional theory (DFT) and force field (FF) based simulation

  20. Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew

    2015-07-09

    The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to

  1. System Dynamics Modeling of the Massachusetts SREC Market

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rickerson

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available As states across the country struggle to increase local development of renewable energy, policymakers are turning to innovative program designs to meet their renewable electricity targets. Massachusetts recently adopted a unique, auction-based price support mechanism for the solar portion of its renewable portfolio standard. During the program development process, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER used system dynamics to simulate potential solar renewable energy certificate market conditions under the proposed regulations. The modeling exercise resulted in several program design changes that will lead to a more stable certificate market. System dynamics can be a useful tool for developing and improving sustainability programs.

  2. Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Adi Tri Joko

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD. System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate the model, 93 construction workers whom worked in a high rise building construction projects, were used as case study. The result shows that excessive workload, working elevation and age, are the main factors lead to construction worker fatigue. Simulation result also shows that these factors can increase worker fatigue level to 21.2% times compared to normal condition. Beside predicting worker fatigue level this model can also be used as early warning system to prevent construction worker accident

  3. Tinamit: Making coupled system dynamics models accessible to stakeholders

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malard, Julien; Inam Baig, Azhar; Rojas Díaz, Marcela; Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Adamowski, Jan; Tuy, Héctor; Melgar-Quiñonez, Hugo

    2017-04-01

    Model coupling is increasingly used as a method of combining the best of two models when representing socio-environmental systems, though barriers to successful model adoption by stakeholders are particularly present with the use of coupled models, due to their high complexity and typically low implementation flexibility. Coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling is a promising method to improve stakeholder participation in environmental modelling while retaining a high level of complexity for physical process representation, as the system dynamics components are readily understandable and can be built by stakeholders themselves. However, this method is not without limitations in practice, including 1) inflexible and complicated coupling methods, 2) difficult model maintenance after the end of the project, and 3) a wide variety of end-user cultures and languages. We have developed the open-source Python-language software tool Tinamit to overcome some of these limitations to the adoption of stakeholder-based coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling. The software is unique in 1) its inclusion of both a graphical user interface (GUI) and a library of available commands (API) that allow users with little or no coding abilities to rapidly, effectively, and flexibly couple models, 2) its multilingual support for the GUI, allowing users to couple models in their preferred language (and to add new languages as necessary for their community work), and 3) its modular structure allowing for very easy model coupling and modification without the direct use of code, and to which programming-savvy users can easily add support for new types of physically-based models. We discuss how the use of Tinamit for model coupling can greatly increase the accessibility of coupled models to stakeholders, using an example of a stakeholder-built system dynamics model of soil salinity issues in Pakistan coupled with the physically-based soil salinity and water flow model

  4. Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of an Underactuated System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duarte Madrid, Juan Libardo; Querubín, E González; Henao, P A Ospina

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, is used the Lagrangian classical mechanics for modeling the dynamics of an underactuated system, specifically a rotary inverted pendulum that will have two equations of motion. A basic design of the system is proposed in SOLIDWORKS 3D CAD software, which based on the material and dimensions of the model provides some physical variables necessary for modeling. In order to verify the results obtained, a comparison the CAD model simulated in the environment SimMechanics of MATLAB software with the mathematical model who was consisting of Euler-Lagrange’s equations implemented in Simulink MATLAB, solved with the ODE23tb method, included in the MATLAB libraries for the solution of systems of equations of the type and order obtained. This article also has a topological analysis of pendulum trajectories through a phase space diagram, which allows the identification of stable and unstable regions of the system. (paper)

  5. Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of an Underactuated System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Libardo Duarte Madrid, Juan; Ospina Henao, P. A.; González Querubín, E.

    2017-06-01

    In this paper, is used the Lagrangian classical mechanics for modeling the dynamics of an underactuated system, specifically a rotary inverted pendulum that will have two equations of motion. A basic design of the system is proposed in SOLIDWORKS 3D CAD software, which based on the material and dimensions of the model provides some physical variables necessary for modeling. In order to verify the results obtained, a comparison the CAD model simulated in the environment SimMechanics of MATLAB software with the mathematical model who was consisting of Euler-Lagrange’s equations implemented in Simulink MATLAB, solved with the ODE23tb method, included in the MATLAB libraries for the solution of systems of equations of the type and order obtained. This article also has a topological analysis of pendulum trajectories through a phase space diagram, which allows the identification of stable and unstable regions of the system.

  6. MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF MECHANICAL SYSTEM CONDITION IN DYNAMICS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. N. Mironov

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers an estimation of a complicated mechanical system condition in dynamics with due account of material degradation and accumulation of micro-damages. An element of continuous medium has been simulated and described with the help of a discrete element. The paper contains description of a model for determination of mechanical system longevity in accordance with number of cycles and operational period.

  7. Modelling and control of dynamic systems using gaussian process models

    CERN Document Server

    Kocijan, Juš

    2016-01-01

    This monograph opens up new horizons for engineers and researchers in academia and in industry dealing with or interested in new developments in the field of system identification and control. It emphasizes guidelines for working solutions and practical advice for their implementation rather than the theoretical background of Gaussian process (GP) models. The book demonstrates the potential of this recent development in probabilistic machine-learning methods and gives the reader an intuitive understanding of the topic. The current state of the art is treated along with possible future directions for research. Systems control design relies on mathematical models and these may be developed from measurement data. This process of system identification, when based on GP models, can play an integral part of control design in data-based control and its description as such is an essential aspect of the text. The background of GP regression is introduced first with system identification and incorporation of prior know...

  8. A novel system dynamics model of female obesity and fertility.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabounchi, Nasim S; Hovmand, Peter S; Osgood, Nathaniel D; Dyck, Roland F; Jungheim, Emily S

    2014-07-01

    Our objective was to create a system dynamics model specific to weight gain and obesity in women of reproductive age that could inform future health policies and have the potential for use in preconception interventions targeting obese women. We used our system dynamics model of obesity in women to test various strategies for family building, including ovulation induction versus weight loss to improve ovulation. Outcomes included relative fecundability, postpartum body mass index, and mortality. Our system dynamics model demonstrated that obese women who become pregnant exhibit increasing obesity levels over time with elevated morbidity and mortality. Alternatively, obese women who lose weight prior to pregnancy have improved reproductive outcomes but may risk an age-related decline in fertility, which can affect overall family size. Our model highlights important public health issues regarding obesity in women of reproductive age. The model may be useful in preconception counseling of obese women who are attempting to balance the competing risks associated with age-related declines in fertility and clinically meaningful weight loss.

  9. Parameter Estimation for Dynamic Model of the Financial System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veronika Novotná

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Economy can be considered a large, open system which is influenced by fluctuations, both internal and external. Based on non-linear dynamics theory, the dynamic models of a financial system try to provide a new perspective by explaining the complicated behaviour of the system not as a result of external influences or random behaviour, but as a result of the behaviour and trends of the system’s internal structures. The present article analyses a chaotic financial system from the point of view of determining the time delay of the model variables – the interest rate, investment demand, and price index. The theory is briefly explained in the first chapters of the paper and serves as a basis for formulating the relations. This article aims to determine the appropriate length of time delay variables in a dynamic model of the financial system in order to express the real economic situation and respect the effect of the history of factors under consideration. The determination of the delay length is carried out for the time series representing Euro area. The methodology for the determination of the time delay is illustrated by a concrete example.

  10. Dynamical system approach to running Λ cosmological models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stachowski, Aleksander; Szydlowski, Marek

    2016-01-01

    We study the dynamics of cosmological models with a time dependent cosmological term. We consider five classes of models; two with the non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term Λ: Λ(H)CDM cosmologies, Λ(a)CDM cosmologies, and three with the covariant parametrization of Λ: Λ(R)CDM cosmologies, where R(t) is the Ricci scalar, Λ(φ)-cosmologies with diffusion, Λ(X)-cosmologies, where X = (1)/(2)g αβ ∇ α ∇ β φ is a kinetic part of the density of the scalar field. We also consider the case of an emergent Λ(a) relation obtained from the behaviour of trajectories in a neighbourhood of an invariant submanifold. In the study of the dynamics we used dynamical system methods for investigating how an evolutionary scenario can depend on the choice of special initial conditions. We show that the methods of dynamical systems allow one to investigate all admissible solutions of a running Λ cosmology for all initial conditions. We interpret Alcaniz and Lima's approach as a scaling cosmology. We formulate the idea of an emergent cosmological term derived directly from an approximation of the exact dynamics. We show that some non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term like Λ(a), Λ(H) gives rise to the non-physical behaviour of trajectories in the phase space. This behaviour disappears if the term Λ(a) is emergent from the covariant parametrization. (orig.)

  11. Equation-free model reduction for complex dynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Maitre, O. P.; Mathelin, L.; Le Maitre, O. P.

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents a reduced model strategy for simulation of complex physical systems. A classical reduced basis is first constructed relying on proper orthogonal decomposition of the system. Then, unlike the alternative approaches, such as Galerkin projection schemes for instance, an equation-free reduced model is constructed. It consists in the determination of an explicit transformation, or mapping, for the evolution over a coarse time-step of the projection coefficients of the system state on the reduced basis. The mapping is expressed as an explicit polynomial transformation of the projection coefficients and is computed once and for all in a pre-processing stage using the detailed model equation of the system. The reduced system can then be advanced in time by successive applications of the mapping. The CPU cost of the method lies essentially in the mapping approximation which is performed offline, in a parallel fashion, and only once. Subsequent application of the mapping to perform a time-integration is carried out at a low cost thanks to its explicit character. Application of the method is considered for the 2-D flow around a circular cylinder. We investigate the effectiveness of the reduced model in rendering the dynamics for both asymptotic state and transient stages. It is shown that the method leads to a stable and accurate time-integration for only a fraction of the cost of a detailed simulation, provided that the mapping is properly approximated and the reduced basis remains relevant for the dynamics investigated. (authors)

  12. Biotechonomy System Dynamics Modelling: Sustainability of Pellet Production

    OpenAIRE

    Andra Blumberga; Armands Gravelsins; Haralds Vigants; Dagnija Blumberga

    2017-01-01

    The paper discovers biotechonomy development analysis by use of system dynamics modelling. The research is connected with investigations of biomass application for production of bioproducts with higher added value. The most popular bioresource is wood, and therefore, the main question today is about future development and eco-design of products. The paper emphasizes and evaluates energy sector which is open for use of wood logs, wood chips, wood pellets and so on. The main aim for this resear...

  13. Dynamical systems modeling of early childhood self-regulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cole, Pamela M; Bendezú, Jason J; Ram, Nilam; Chow, Sy-Miin

    2017-06-01

    Self-regulation can be conceptualized in terms of dynamic tension between highly probable reactions (prepotent responses) and use of strategies that can modulate those reactions (executive processes). This study investigated the value of a dynamical systems approach to the study of early childhood self-regulation. Specifically, ordinary differential equations (ODEs) were used to model the interactive influences of 115 36-month-olds' executive processes (strategy use) and prepotent responses to waiting to open a gift (desire for the gift and frustration about waiting to open it). Using a pair of coupled second-order ODEs in a nonlinear mixed effects framework, the study tested predictions for specific within- and between-child patterns of prepotent response-executive process coupling. Dynamic modeling results articulated the limits of 36-month olds' strategic efforts. They engaged executive processes when their prepotent responding levels were high, which delayed the resurgence of prepotent responses, but ultimately did not damp prepotent responding over the course of the wait. There was, however, preliminary evidence that the effectiveness of 36-month-olds' self-regulation depended upon child characteristics. Externalizing behavior problems were associated with more regulatory interference. Temperamental negative affectivity was marginally associated with more regulatory inefficiency. Compared with conventional methods of studying self-regulation, dynamic modeling yielded complementary and unique findings, suggesting its potential. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

  15. Dynamic Modeling of Systemic Risk in Financial Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Avakian, Adam

    Modern financial networks are complicated structures that can contain multiple types of nodes and connections between those nodes. Banks, governments and even individual people weave into an intricate network of debt, risk correlations and many other forms of interconnectedness. We explore multiple types of financial network models with a focus on understanding the dynamics and causes of cascading failures in such systems. In particular, we apply real-world data from multiple sources to these models to better understand real-world financial networks. We use the results of the Federal Reserve "Banking Organization Systemic Risk Report" (FR Y-15), which surveys the largest US banks on their level of interconnectedness, to find relationships between various measures of network connectivity and systemic risk in the US financial sector. This network model is then stress-tested under a number of scenarios to determine systemic risks inherent in the various network structures. We also use detailed historical balance sheet data from the Venezuelan banking system to build a bipartite network model and find relationships between the changing network structure over time and the response of the system to various shocks. We find that the relationship between interconnectedness and systemic risk is highly dependent on the system and model but that it is always a significant one. These models are useful tools that add value to regulators in creating new measurements of systemic risk in financial networks. These models could be used as macroprudential tools for monitoring the health of the entire banking system as a whole rather than only of individual banks.

  16. System dynamic modeling on construction waste management in Shenzhen, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tam, Vivian W Y; Li, Jingru; Cai, Hong

    2014-05-01

    This article examines the complexity of construction waste management in Shenzhen, Mainland China. In-depth analysis of waste generation, transportation, recycling, landfill and illegal dumping of various inherent management phases is explored. A system dynamics modeling using Stella model is developed. Effects of landfill charges and also penalties from illegal dumping are also simulated. The results show that the implementation of comprehensive policy on both landfill charges and illegal dumping can effectively control the illegal dumping behavior, and achieve comprehensive construction waste minimization. This article provides important recommendations for effective policy implementation and explores new perspectives for Shenzhen policy makers.

  17. Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yongxi

    Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the

  18. Dynamic Response of Linear Mechanical Systems Modeling, Analysis and Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Angeles, Jorge

    2012-01-01

    Dynamic Response of Linear Mechanical Systems: Modeling, Analysis and Simulation can be utilized for a variety of courses, including junior and senior-level vibration and linear mechanical analysis courses. The author connects, by means of a rigorous, yet intuitive approach, the theory of vibration with the more general theory of systems. The book features: A seven-step modeling technique that helps structure the rather unstructured process of mechanical-system modeling A system-theoretic approach to deriving the time response of the linear mathematical models of mechanical systems The modal analysis and the time response of two-degree-of-freedom systems—the first step on the long way to the more elaborate study of multi-degree-of-freedom systems—using the Mohr circle Simple, yet powerful simulation algorithms that exploit the linearity of the system for both single- and multi-degree-of-freedom systems Examples and exercises that rely on modern computational toolboxes for both numerical and symbolic compu...

  19. Study on system dynamics of evolutionary mix-game models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Chengling; Guo, Xiaoqian; Chen, Fang

    2008-11-01

    Mix-game model is ameliorated from an agent-based MG model, which is used to simulate the real financial market. Different from MG, there are two groups of agents in Mix-game: Group 1 plays a majority game and Group 2 plays a minority game. These two groups of agents have different bounded abilities to deal with historical information and to count their own performance. In this paper, we modify Mix-game model by assigning the evolution abilities to agents: if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will copy the best strategies the other agent has; and agents will repeat such evolution at certain time intervals. Through simulations this paper finds: (1) the average winning rates of agents in Group 1 and the mean volatilities increase with the increases of the thresholds of Group 1; (2) the average winning rates of both groups decrease but the mean volatilities of system increase with the increase of the thresholds of Group 2; (3) the thresholds of Group 2 have greater impact on system dynamics than the thresholds of Group 1; (4) the characteristics of system dynamics under different time intervals of strategy change are similar to each other qualitatively, but they are different quantitatively; (5) As the time interval of strategy change increases from 1 to 20, the system behaves more and more stable and the performances of agents in both groups become better also.

  20. A new dynamic model of rotor-blade systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Hui; Lu, Yang; Wu, Zhiyuan; Tai, Xingyu; Li, Hui; Wen, Bangchun

    2015-11-01

    A new dynamic model of rotor-blade systems is developed in this paper considering the lateral and torsional deformations of the shaft, gyroscopic effects of the rotor which consists of shaft and disk, and the centrifugal stiffening, spin softening and Coriolis force of the blades. In this model, the rotating flexible blades are represented by Timoshenko beams. The shaft and rigid disk are described by multiple lumped mass points (LMPs), and these points are connected by massless springs which have both lateral and torsional stiffness. LMPs are represented by the corresponding masses and mass moments of inertia in lateral and rotational directions, where each point has five degrees of freedom (dofs) excluding axial dof. Equations of motion of the rotor-blade system are derived using Hamilton's principle in conjunction with the assumed modes method to describe blade deformation. The proposed model is compared with both finite element (FE) model and real experiments. The proposed model is first validated by comparing the model natural frequencies and vibration responses with those obtained from an FE model. A further verification of the model is then performed by comparing the model natural frequencies at zero rotational speed with those obtained from experimental studies. The results shown a good agreement between the model predicted system characteristics and those obtained from the FE model and experimental tests. Moreover, the following interesting phenomena have been revealed from the new model based analysis: The torsional natural frequency of the system decreases with the increase of rotational speed, and the frequency veering phenomenon has been observed at high rotational speed; The complicated coupling modes, such as the blade-blade coupling mode (BB), the coupling mode between the rotor lateral vibration and blade bending (RBL), and the coupling mode between the rotor torsional vibration and blade bending (RBT), have also been observed when the number of

  1. Dynamic modeling and simulation of trailer with compliance steering system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qingyun Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Stability of a vehicle and tire wear is affected by the movement inference between the tractor and the trailer when the trailer is turning. Therefore, to solve the problem, Compliant Steering (CS system is used. The system makes the rear-wheel of the trailer steer. After establishing a dynamic model of the trailer and the CS system, the simulation result shows that the system has a smaller lateral force. This smaller force at the hinge point indicates movement inference is reduced and motion response is far better. Furthermore, this paper contains the analysis of the influence of the key parameters of CS system and the speed on the moving characteristics of the trailer.

  2. Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Huirong Feng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

  3. Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Huirong; Lim, C. W.; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

    2014-01-01

    The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony. PMID:25254225

  4. Sustainable deforestation evaluation model and system dynamics analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Huirong; Lim, C W; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

    2014-01-01

    The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

  5. Forced versus coupled dynamics in Earth system modelling and prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Knopf

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We compare coupled nonlinear climate models and their simplified forced counterparts with respect to predictability and phase space topology. Various types of uncertainty plague climate change simulation, which is, in turn, a crucial element of Earth System modelling. Since the currently preferred strategy for simulating the climate system, or the Earth System at large, is the coupling of sub-system modules (representing, e.g. atmosphere, oceans, global vegetation, this paper explicitly addresses the errors and indeterminacies generated by the coupling procedure. The focus is on a comparison of forced dynamics as opposed to fully, i.e. intrinsically, coupled dynamics. The former represents a particular type of simulation, where the time behaviour of one complex systems component is prescribed by data or some other external information source. Such a simplifying technique is often employed in Earth System models in order to save computing resources, in particular when massive model inter-comparisons need to be carried out. Our contribution to the debate is based on the investigation of two representative model examples, namely (i a low-dimensional coupled atmosphere-ocean simulator, and (ii a replica-like simulator embracing corresponding components.Whereas in general the forced version (ii is able to mimic its fully coupled counterpart (i, we show in this paper that for a considerable fraction of parameter- and state-space, the two approaches qualitatively differ. Here we take up a phenomenon concerning the predictability of coupled versus forced models that was reported earlier in this journal: the observation that the time series of the forced version display artificial predictive skill. We present an explanation in terms of nonlinear dynamical theory. In particular we observe an intermittent version of artificial predictive skill, which we call on-off synchronization, and trace it back to the appearance of unstable periodic orbits. We also

  6. System Dynamics Modelling of the Power Sector in Mauritius

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deenapanray Prakash N. K.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available A system dynamics model has been developed for the power sector of Mauritius, which captures a range of complex interactions between the economic, social and environmental aspects of the national economy, with deeper emphasis on the role of energy in these interactions. The model has been validated by replicating the historical trends of key development indicators, and its results were compared to the projections of the national utility company. The validation process shows that the model provides a faithful representation of the actual electricity sector of Mauritius, and can be easily adapted to the use of different assumptions. This paper describes the main characteristics of the model and its results as compared to electricity demand projections carried out by the Central Electricity Board to 2022. The results suggest that further analysis could be done to test alternative low carbon investment scenarios.

  7. Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2017-12-01

    A machine-learning-based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (e.g., random forests, LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed `error indicators' (i.e., features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering), and subsequently constructs a `local' regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider two uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance, and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (e.g., time-integrated errors). We apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil--water subsurface flow simulations. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization with proper orthogonal decomposition. When the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.

  8. System Dynamics Modelling in CRM: Window Fashions Gallery

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F.T. Yuen

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available The core research issue on which this study focuses is customer relationship management (CRM in a designated window fashions firm. A system dynamics-based CRM model is developed to help evaluate the effectiveness of CRM in the firm and examine factors affecting customer satisfaction. Different relationships and linkages between the firm, its employees, and its customers are identified to establish feedback loops that analyze the system over time. The analysis of the CRM model shows that employee satisfaction is the key leverage point affecting customer satisfaction, number of customers, and sales volume of the firm. Product attractiveness and service quality also play an important role in influencing the level of customer satisfaction. On the other hand, advertising and employee training have only minor effects on customer satisfaction.

  9. Data2Dynamics: a modeling environment tailored to parameter estimation in dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raue, A; Steiert, B; Schelker, M; Kreutz, C; Maiwald, T; Hass, H; Vanlier, J; Tönsing, C; Adlung, L; Engesser, R; Mader, W; Heinemann, T; Hasenauer, J; Schilling, M; Höfer, T; Klipp, E; Theis, F; Klingmüller, U; Schöberl, B; Timmer, J

    2015-11-01

    Modeling of dynamical systems using ordinary differential equations is a popular approach in the field of systems biology. Two of the most critical steps in this approach are to construct dynamical models of biochemical reaction networks for large datasets and complex experimental conditions and to perform efficient and reliable parameter estimation for model fitting. We present a modeling environment for MATLAB that pioneers these challenges. The numerically expensive parts of the calculations such as the solving of the differential equations and of the associated sensitivity system are parallelized and automatically compiled into efficient C code. A variety of parameter estimation algorithms as well as frequentist and Bayesian methods for uncertainty analysis have been implemented and used on a range of applications that lead to publications. The Data2Dynamics modeling environment is MATLAB based, open source and freely available at http://www.data2dynamics.org. andreas.raue@fdm.uni-freiburg.de Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  10. Best practices for system dynamics model design and construction with powersim studio.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Malczynski, Leonard A.

    2011-06-01

    This guide addresses software quality in the construction of Powersim{reg_sign} Studio 8 system dynamics simulation models. It is the result of almost ten years of experience with the Powersim suite of system dynamics modeling tools (Constructor and earlier Studio versions). It is a guide that proposes a common look and feel for the construction of Powersim Studio system dynamics models.

  11. Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.

    2002-05-13

    Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers

  12. Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.

    2002-01-01

    Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers can schedule other events; create or remove Entities from the

  13. Modeling Dynamic Processes in Smallholder Dairy Value Chains in Nicaragua: A System Dynamics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Helene Lie

    2016-08-01

    Full Text Available In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders.

  14. Modeling a nucleon system: static and dynamical properties - density fluctuations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idier, D.

    1997-01-01

    This thesis sets forth a quasi-particle model for the static and dynamical properties of nuclear matter. This model is based on a scale ratio of quasi-particle to nucleons and the projection of the semi-classical distribution on a coherent Gaussian state basis. The first chapter is dealing with the transport equations, particularly with the Vlasov equation for Wigner distribution function. The second one is devoted to the statics of nuclear matter. Here, the sampling effect upon the nuclear density is treated and the state equation of the Gaussian fluid is compared with that given by Hartree-Fock approximation. We define state equation as the relationship between the nucleon binding energy and density, for a given temperature. The curvature around the state equation minimum of the quasi-particle system is shown to be related to the speed of propagation of density perturbation. The volume energy and the surface properties of a (semi-)infinite nucleon system are derived. For the resultant saturated auto-coherent semi-infinite system of quasi-particles the surface coefficient appearing in the mass formula is extracted as well as the system density profile. The third chapter treats the dynamics of the two-particle residual interactions. The effect of different parameters on relaxation of a nucleon system without a mean field is studied by means of a Eulerian and Lagrangian modeling. The fourth chapter treats the volume instabilities (spinodal decomposition) in nuclear matter. The quasi-particle systems, initially prepared in the spinodal region of the utilized interaction, are set to evolve. It is shown then that the scale ratio acts upon the amount of fluctuations injected in the system. The inhomogeneity degree and a proper time are defined and the role of collisions in the spinodal decomposition as well as that of the initial temperature and density, are investigated. Assuming different effective macroscopic interactions, the influence of quantities as

  15. Positive dynamical systems in discrete time theory, models, and applications

    CERN Document Server

    Krause, Ulrich

    2015-01-01

    This book provides a systematic, rigorous and self-contained treatment of positive dynamical systems. A dynamical system is positive when all relevant variables of a systemare nonnegative in a natural way. This is in biology, demography or economics, where the levels of populations or prices of goods are positive. The principle also finds application in electrical engineering, physics and computer sciences.

  16. Modeling Adaptive Dynamical Systems to Analyze Eating Regulation Disorders

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosse, T.; Delfos, M.F.; Jonker, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2006-01-01

    To analyze the disorders of their patients, psychotherapists often have to get insight in adaptive dynamical systems. Analysis of dynamical systems usually is performed using mathematical techniques. Such an analysis is not precisely the type of reasoning performed in psychotherapy practice. In this

  17. Modeling the afferent dynamics of the baroreflex control system.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adam Mahdi

    Full Text Available In this study we develop a modeling framework for predicting baroreceptor firing rate as a function of blood pressure. We test models within this framework both quantitatively and qualitatively using data from rats. The models describe three components: arterial wall deformation, stimulation of mechanoreceptors located in the BR nerve-endings, and modulation of the action potential frequency. The three sub-systems are modeled individually following well-established biological principles. The first submodel, predicting arterial wall deformation, uses blood pressure as an input and outputs circumferential strain. The mechanoreceptor stimulation model, uses circumferential strain as an input, predicting receptor deformation as an output. Finally, the neural model takes receptor deformation as an input predicting the BR firing rate as an output. Our results show that nonlinear dependence of firing rate on pressure can be accounted for by taking into account the nonlinear elastic properties of the artery wall. This was observed when testing the models using multiple experiments with a single set of parameters. We find that to model the response to a square pressure stimulus, giving rise to post-excitatory depression, it is necessary to include an integrate-and-fire model, which allows the firing rate to cease when the stimulus falls below a given threshold. We show that our modeling framework in combination with sensitivity analysis and parameter estimation can be used to test and compare models. Finally, we demonstrate that our preferred model can exhibit all known dynamics and that it is advantageous to combine qualitative and quantitative analysis methods.

  18. A DYNAMICAL SYSTEM APPROACH IN MODELING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hennie Husniah

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a mathematical model of two parties technology transfer from a leader to a follower. The model is reconstructed via dynamical system approach from a known standard Raz and Assa model and we found some important conclusion which have not been discussed in the original model. The model assumes that in the absence of technology transfer from a leader to a follower, both the leader and the follower have a capability to grow independently with a known upper limit of the development. We obtain a rich mathematical structure of the steady state solution of the model. We discuss a special situation in which the upper limit of the technological development of the follower is higher than that of the leader, but the leader has started earlier than the follower in implementing the technology. In this case we show a paradox stating that the follower is unable to reach its original upper limit of the technological development could appear whenever the transfer rate is sufficiently high.  We propose a new model to increase realism so that any technological transfer rate could only has a positive effect in accelerating the rate of growth of the follower in reaching its original upper limit of the development.

  19. Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranganathan, Shyam; Nicolis, Stamatios C; Bali Swain, Ranjula; Sumpter, David J T

    2017-01-01

    The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.

  20. Modeling Physical Systems Using Vensim PLE Systems Dynamics Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Widmark, Stephen

    2012-01-01

    Many physical systems are described by time-dependent differential equations or systems of such equations. This makes it difficult for students in an introductory physics class to solve many real-world problems since these students typically have little or no experience with this kind of mathematics. In my high school physics classes, I address…

  1. Using Small Models for Big Issues : Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis for Insightful Crisis Management

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.

    2010-01-01

    The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of inter/national safety and security.

  2. Dynamic modeling and response of soil-wall systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Veletsos, A.S.; Younan, A.H.

    1993-10-01

    The study reported herein is the third in a series of investigations motivated by need to gain improved understanding of the responses to earthquakes of deeply embedded and underground tanks storing radioactive wastes, and to develop rational but simple methods of analysis and design for such systems. Following a brief review of the errors that may result from the use of a popular model for evaluating the dynamic soil forces induced in a base-excited rigid wall retaining an elastic stratum, the sources of the errors are identified and a modification is proposed which defines correctly the action of the system. In the proposed modification, the stratum is modeled by a series of elastically supported, semi-infinite horizontal bars with distributed mass instead of massless springs. The concepts involved are introduced by reference to a system composed of a fixed-based wall and a homogeneous elastic stratum, and are then applied to the analysis of more complex soil-wall systems. Both harmonic and transient excitations are considered, and comprehensive numerical solutions are presented which elucidate the actions involved and the effects and relative importance of the relevant parameters

  3. Cyber Physical System Modelling of Distribution Power Systems for Dynamic Demand Response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Rongxiang; Tang, Maosen; Huang, Haoyi; Zhang, Lei

    2018-01-01

    Dynamic demand response (DDR) is a package of control methods to enhance power system security. A CPS modelling and simulation platform for DDR in distribution power systems is presented in this paper. CPS modelling requirements of distribution power systems are analyzed. A coupled CPS modelling platform is built for assessing DDR in the distribution power system, which combines seamlessly modelling tools of physical power networks and cyber communication networks. Simulations results of IEEE 13-node test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the modelling and simulation platform.

  4. Modeling dynamic behavior of superconducting maglev systems under external disturbances

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Chen-Guang; Xue, Cun; Yong, Hua-Dong; Zhou, You-He

    2017-08-01

    For a maglev system, vertical and lateral displacements of the levitation body may simultaneously occur under external disturbances, which often results in changes in the levitation and guidance forces and even causes some serious malfunctions. To fully understand the effect of external disturbances on the levitation performance, in this work, we build a two-dimensional numerical model on the basis of Newton's second law of motion and a mathematical formulation derived from magnetoquasistatic Maxwell's equations together with a nonlinear constitutive relation between the electric field and the current density. By using this model, we present an analysis of dynamic behavior for two typical maglev systems consisting of an infinitely long superconductor and a guideway of different arrangements of infinitely long parallel permanent magnets. The results show that during the vertical movement, the levitation force is closely associated with the flux motion and the moving velocity of the superconductor. After being disturbed at the working position, the superconductor has a disturbance-induced initial velocity and then starts to periodically vibrate in both lateral and vertical directions. Meanwhile, the lateral and vertical vibration centers gradually drift along their vibration directions. The larger the initial velocity, the faster their vibration centers drift. However, the vertical drift of the vertical vibration center seems to be independent of the direction of the initial velocity. In addition, due to the lateral and vertical drifts, the equilibrium position of the superconductor in the maglev systems is not a space point but a continuous range.

  5. The mathematical model of dynamic stabilization system for autonomous car

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saikin, A. M.; Buznikov, S. E.; Shabanov, N. S.; Elkin, D. S.

    2018-02-01

    Leading foreign companies and domestic enterprises carry out extensive researches and developments in the field of control systems for autonomous cars and in the field of improving driver assistance systems. The search for technical solutions, as a rule, is based on heuristic methods and does not always lead to satisfactory results. The purpose of this research is to formalize the road safety problem in the terms of modern control theory, to construct the adequate mathematical model for solving it, including the choice of software and hardware environment. For automatic control of the object, it is necessary to solve the problem of dynamic stabilization in the most complete formulation. The solution quality of the problem on a finite time interval is estimated by the value of the quadratic functional. Car speed, turn angle and additional yaw rate (during car drift or skidding) measurements are performed programmatically by the original virtual sensors. The limit speeds at which drift, skidding or rollover begins are calculated programmatically taking into account the friction coefficient identified in motion. The analysis of the results confirms both the adequacy of the mathematical models and the algorithms and the possibility of implementing the system in the minimal technical configuration.

  6. Nonequilibrium phase transition in a system with chaotic dynamics. The ABCDE model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Friedrich, R.; Haken, H.

    1992-04-01

    For the ABCDE model, a low-dimensional dynamical system devised to study the generation of magnetic fields by convective fluid motions, we examine a nonequilibrium phase transition in a system with chaotic dynamics.

  7. Social Insects: A Model System for Network Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Charbonneau, Daniel; Blonder, Benjamin; Dornhaus, Anna

    Social insect colonies (ants, bees, wasps, and termites) show sophisticated collective problem-solving in the face of variable constraints. Individuals exchange information and materials such as food. The resulting network structure and dynamics can inform us about the mechanisms by which the insects achieve particular collective behaviors and these can be transposed to man-made and social networks. We discuss how network analysis can answer important questions about social insects, such as how effective task allocation or information flow is realized. We put forward the idea that network analysis methods are under-utilized in social insect research, and that they can provide novel ways to view the complexity of collective behavior, particularly if network dynamics are taken into account. To illustrate this, we present an example of network tasks performed by ant workers, linked by instances of workers switching from one task to another. We show how temporal network analysis can propose and test new hypotheses on mechanisms of task allocation, and how adding temporal elements to static networks can drastically change results. We discuss the benefits of using social insects as models for complex systems in general. There are multiple opportunities emergent technologies and analysis methods in facilitating research on social insect network. The potential for interdisciplinary work could significantly advance diverse fields such as behavioral ecology, computer sciences, and engineering.

  8. Description of waste pretreatment and interfacing systems dynamic simulation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garbrick, D.J.; Zimmerman, B.D.

    1995-05-01

    The Waste Pretreatment and Interfacing Systems Dynamic Simulation Model was created to investigate the required pretreatment facility processing rates for both high level and low level waste so that the vitrification of tank waste can be completed according to the milestones defined in the Tri-Party Agreement (TPA). In order to achieve this objective, the processes upstream and downstream of the pretreatment facilities must also be included. The simulation model starts with retrieval of tank waste and ends with vitrification for both low level and high level wastes. This report describes the results of three simulation cases: one based on suggested average facility processing rates, one with facility rates determined so that approximately 6 new DSTs are required, and one with facility rates determined so that approximately no new DSTs are required. It appears, based on the simulation results, that reasonable facility processing rates can be selected so that no new DSTs are required by the TWRS program. However, this conclusion must be viewed with respect to the modeling assumptions, described in detail in the report. Also included in the report, in an appendix, are results of two sensitivity cases: one with glass plant water recycle steams recycled versus not recycled, and one employing the TPA SST retrieval schedule versus a more uniform SST retrieval schedule. Both recycling and retrieval schedule appear to have a significant impact on overall tank usage.

  9. Real time modeling, simulation and control of dynamical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Mughal, Asif Mahmood

    2016-01-01

    This book introduces modeling and simulation of linear time invariant systems and demonstrates how these translate to systems engineering, mechatronics engineering, and biomedical engineering. It is organized into nine chapters that follow the lectures used for a one-semester course on this topic, making it appropriate for students as well as researchers. The author discusses state space modeling derived from two modeling techniques and the analysis of the system and usage of modeling in control systems design. It also contains a unique chapter on multidisciplinary energy systems with a special focus on bioengineering systems and expands upon how the bond graph augments research in biomedical and bio-mechatronics systems.

  10. Application of system dynamics on nuclear policy model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    An, N. S.; Kim, J. C.; Kim, D. W.; Kang, S. C.

    2000-01-01

    A system dynamics model for a nuclear energy policy in Korea (SIMNEP) was developed to analyze the Korea nuclear system and to predict the influence of the nuclear energy policy in the future. Two cases were analyzed using SIMNEP. The first case is to see the effect of the occurrence of severe nuclear accident in foreign country on the Korean government support. In the beginning, the Korean government support drops but jump up to the higher value than normal support due to the intelligentsia support influenced by the delay time of perception. Then, the national government support converges to the normal support. This turns out that the intelligentsia support plays a major role in increasing the government support. The second case is to see the effect of prior efforts on the foreign factors and/or on domestic factors on the U.S. government support. In the short term, effort on the U.S. government is more effective to increase U.S. government support but in the long term (about after 5 years), efforts on the domestic factors influence on the U.S. government support more than efforts on the foreign factors. The Korean government counter reaction among the influencing factors on the U.S. government support plays a major role to explain this result

  11. Dynamical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Sternberg, Shlomo

    2010-01-01

    Celebrated mathematician Shlomo Sternberg, a pioneer in the field of dynamical systems, created this modern one-semester introduction to the subject for his classes at Harvard University. Its wide-ranging treatment covers one-dimensional dynamics, differential equations, random walks, iterated function systems, symbolic dynamics, and Markov chains. Supplementary materials offer a variety of online components, including PowerPoint lecture slides for professors and MATLAB exercises.""Even though there are many dynamical systems books on the market, this book is bound to become a classic. The the

  12. Incorporating Social System Dynamics into the Food-Energy-Water System Resilience-Sustainability Modeling Process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Givens, J.; Padowski, J.; Malek, K.; Guzman, C.; Boll, J.; Adam, J. C.; Witinok-Huber, R.

    2017-12-01

    In the face of climate change and multi-scalar governance objectives, achieving resilience of food-energy-water (FEW) systems requires interdisciplinary approaches. Through coordinated modeling and management efforts, we study "Innovations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (INFEWS)" through a case-study in the Columbia River Basin. Previous research on FEW system management and resilience includes some attention to social dynamics (e.g., economic, governance); however, more research is needed to better address social science perspectives. Decisions ultimately taken in this river basin would occur among stakeholders encompassing various institutional power structures including multiple U.S. states, tribal lands, and sovereign nations. The social science lens draws attention to the incompatibility between the engineering definition of resilience (i.e., return to equilibrium or a singular stable state) and the ecological and social system realities, more explicit in the ecological interpretation of resilience (i.e., the ability of a system to move into a different, possibly more resilient state). Social science perspectives include but are not limited to differing views on resilience as normative, system persistence versus transformation, and system boundary issues. To expand understanding of resilience and objectives for complex and dynamic systems, concepts related to inequality, heterogeneity, power, agency, trust, values, culture, history, conflict, and system feedbacks must be more tightly integrated into FEW research. We identify gaps in knowledge and data, and the value and complexity of incorporating social components and processes into systems models. We posit that socio-biophysical system resilience modeling would address important complex, dynamic social relationships, including non-linear dynamics of social interactions, to offer an improved understanding of sustainable management in FEW systems. Conceptual modeling that is presented in our study, represents

  13. Tunneling dynamics in open ultracold bosonic systems. Numerically exact dynamics - Analytical models - Control schemes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lode, Axel U.J.

    2013-06-03

    This thesis explores the quantum many-body tunneling dynamics of open ultracold bosonic systems with the recently developed multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree for bosons (MCTDHB) method. The capabilities of MCTDHB to provide solutions to the full time-dependent many-body problem are assessed in a benchmark using the analytically solvable harmonic interaction Hamiltonian and a generalization of it with time-dependent both one- and two-body potentials. In a comparison with numerically exact MCTDHB results, it is shown that e.g. lattice methods fail qualitatively to describe the tunneling dynamics. A model assembling the many-body physics of the process from basic simultaneously happening single-particle processes is derived and verified with a numerically exact MCTDHB description. The generality of the model is demonstrated even for strong interactions and large particle numbers. The ejection of the bosons from the source occurs with characteristic velocities. These velocities are defined by the chemical potentials of systems with different particle numbers which are converted to kinetic energy. The tunneling process is accompanied by fragmentation: the ejected bosons lose their coherence with the source and among each other. It is shown that the various aspects of the tunneling dynamics' can be controlled well with the interaction and the potential threshold.

  14. System Dynamic Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    and the number of measures. Originality/value - A large number of case studies and surveys are now present in the literature of BSC. However, there is a lack of more theoretical and analytical modelling of the BSC. Our paper just throws a little light to this modelling approach....... variables: skills, customer base and work in process. We are able to show that only minimal changes may create large effects on profit. Research limitations/implications - Our analytical model is based on both assumed but also on case documented assumptions of a concrete model. In every such kind of model......Purpose - The purpose of this research is to make an analytical model of the BSC foundation by using a dynamic simulation approach for a 'hypothetical case' model, based on only part of an actual case study of BSC. Design/methodology/approach - The model includes five perspectives and a number...

  15. High tech supply chain simulation based on dynamical systems model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yuan, X.; Ashayeri, J.

    2013-01-01

    During the last 45 years, system dynamics as a continuous type of simulation has been used for simulating various problems, ranging from economic to engineering and managerial when limited (historical) information is available. Control theory is another alternative for continuous simulation that

  16. Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.

    2018-04-01

    Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.

  17. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  18. Ultrafast Structural Dynamics in Combustion Relevant Model Systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Weber, Peter M. [Brown University

    2014-03-31

    The research project explored the time resolved structural dynamics of important model reaction system using an array of novel methods that were developed specifically for this purpose. They include time resolved electron diffraction, time resolved relativistic electron diffraction, and time resolved Rydberg fingerprint spectroscopy. Toward the end of the funding period, we also developed time-resolved x-ray diffraction, which uses ultrafast x-ray pulses at LCLS. Those experiments are just now blossoming, as the funding period expired. In the following, the time resolved Rydberg Fingerprint Spectroscopy is discussed in some detail, as it has been a very productive method. The binding energy of an electron in a Rydberg state, that is, the energy difference between the Rydberg level and the ground state of the molecular ion, has been found to be a uniquely powerful tool to characterize the molecular structure. To rationalize the structure sensitivity we invoke a picture from electron diffraction: when it passes the molecular ion core, the Rydberg electron experiences a phase shift compared to an electron in a hydrogen atom. This phase shift requires an adjustment of the binding energy of the electron, which is measurable. As in electron diffraction, the phase shift depends on the molecular, geometrical structure, so that a measurement of the electron binding energy can be interpreted as a measurement of the molecule’s structure. Building on this insight, we have developed a structurally sensitive spectroscopy: the molecule is first elevated to the Rydberg state, and the binding energy is then measured using photoelectron spectroscopy. The molecule’s structure is read out as the binding energy spectrum. Since the photoionization can be done with ultrafast laser pulses, the technique is inherently capable of a time resolution in the femtosecond regime. For the purpose of identifying the structures of molecules during chemical reactions, and for the analysis of

  19. Using system dynamics modeling to understand the impact of social change initiatives.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hirsch, Gary B; Levine, Ralph; Miller, Robin Lin

    2007-06-01

    Community psychologists have a long history of interest in understanding social systems and how to bring about enduring positive change in these systems. However, the methods that community psychologists use to anticipate and evaluate the changes that result from system change efforts are less well developed. In the current paper, we introduce readers to system dynamics modeling, an action research approach to studying complex systems and the consequences of system change. We illustrate this approach by describing a system dynamics model of educational reform. We provide readers with an introduction to system dynamics modeling, as well as describe the strengths and limitations of the approach for application to community psychology.

  20. Back to the drawing board : creating drawing or text summaries in support of system dynamics modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kenbeek, W.K.

    2012-01-01

    System Dynamics modelling is a promising tool to teach secondary school students how complex systems (such as the climate on earth) work, as well as to give these students the opportunity to experience how System Dynamics modelling can be used in science. However, research to date has shown that

  1. Small System dynamics models for big issues : Triple jump towards real-world complexity

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pruyt, E.

    2013-01-01

    System Dynamics (SD) is a method to describe, model, simulate and analyze dynamically complex issues and/or systems in terms of the processes, information, organizational boundaries and strategies. Quantitative SD modeling, simulation and analysis facilitates the (re)design of systems and design of

  2. Dynamics of sustained use and abandonment of clean cooking systems: study protocol for community-based system dynamics modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Praveen; Chalise, Nishesh; Yadama, Gautam N

    2016-04-26

    More than 3 billion of the world's population are affected by household air pollution from relying on unprocessed solid fuels for heating and cooking. Household air pollution is harmful to human health, climate, and environment. Sustained uptake and use of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels are proposed as solutions to this problem. In this paper, we present our study protocol aimed at understanding multiple interacting feedback mechanisms involved in the dynamic behavior between social, ecological, and technological systems driving sustained use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies among the rural poor in India. This study uses a comparative case study design to understand the dynamics of sustained use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels in four rural communities of Rajasthan, India. The study adopts a community based system dynamics modeling approach. We describe our approach of using community based system dynamics with rural communities to delineate the feedback mechanisms involved in the uptake and sustainment of clean cooking technologies. We develop a reference mode with communities showing the trend over time of use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels in these communities. Subsequently, the study develops a system dynamics model with communities to understand the complex sub-systems driving the behavior in these communities as reflected in the reference mode. We use group model building techniques to facilitate participation of relevant stakeholders in the four communities and elicit a narrative describing the feedback mechanisms underlying sustained adoption or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies. In understanding the dynamics of feedback mechanisms in the uptake and exclusive use of cleaner cooking systems, we increase the likelihood of dissemination and implementation of efficacious interventions into everyday settings to improve the health and wellbeing of women and children most affected

  3. Computational Psychometrics for Modeling System Dynamics during Stressful Disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pietro Cipresso

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Disasters can be very stressful events. However, computational models of stress require data that might be very difficult to collect during disasters. Moreover, personal experiences are not repeatable, so it is not possible to collect bottom-up information when building a coherent model. To overcome these problems, we propose the use of computational models and virtual reality integration to recreate disaster situations, while examining possible dynamics in order to understand human behavior and relative consequences. By providing realistic parameters associated with disaster situations, computational scientists can work more closely with emergency responders to improve the quality of interventions in the future.

  4. Dynamics of Charged Particulate Systems Modeling, Theory and Computation

    CERN Document Server

    Zohdi, Tarek I

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this monograph is to provide a concise introduction to the dynamics of systems comprised of charged small-scale particles. Flowing, small-scale, particles ("particulates'') are ubiquitous in industrial processes and in the natural sciences. Applications include electrostatic copiers, inkjet printers, powder coating machines, etc., and a variety of manufacturing processes. Due to their small-scale size, external electromagnetic fields can be utilized to manipulate and control charged particulates in industrial processes in order to achieve results that are not possible by purely mechanical means alone. A unique feature of small-scale particulate flows is that they exhibit a strong sensitivity to interparticle near-field forces, leading to nonstandard particulate dynamics, agglomeration and cluster formation, which can strongly affect manufactured product quality. This monograph also provides an introduction to the mathematically-related topic of the dynamics of swarms of interacting objects, ...

  5. Use of measurement theory for operationalization and quantification of psychological constructs in systems dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitkov-Norris, Elena; Yeghiazarian, Ara

    2016-11-01

    The analytical tools available to social scientists have traditionally been adapted from tools originally designed for analysis of natural science phenomena. This article discusses the applicability of systems dynamics - a qualitative based modelling approach, as a possible analysis and simulation tool that bridges the gap between social and natural sciences. After a brief overview of the systems dynamics modelling methodology, the advantages as well as limiting factors of systems dynamics to the potential applications in the field of social sciences and human interactions are discussed. The issues arise with regards to operationalization and quantification of latent constructs at the simulation building stage of the systems dynamics methodology and measurement theory is proposed as a ready and waiting solution to the problem of dynamic model calibration, with a view of improving simulation model reliability and validity and encouraging the development of standardised, modular system dynamics models that can be used in social science research.

  6. Dynamic Systems and Control Engineering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jong Seok

    1994-02-01

    This book deals with introduction of dynamic system and control engineering, frequency domain modeling of dynamic system, temporal modeling of dynamic system, typical dynamic system and automatic control device, performance and stability of control system, root locus analysis, analysis of frequency domain dynamic system, design of frequency domain dynamic system, design and analysis of space, space of control system and digital control system such as control system design of direct digital and digitalization of consecutive control system.

  7. Model Of The Human Observer and Controller Of A Dynamic System Theory and model application to ship handling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wewerinke, P.H.; Perdok, J.; van der Tak, C.

    1988-01-01

    The MMS model presented in ths paper describes rather detailed human control of a dynamic system. The model is an integration and extension of previously developped (validated) (sub-)models. The model describes human control of a dynamic system, involving intermittent control behavior during finite

  8. A Model of Gear Transmission: Fractional Order System Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katica (Stevanović Hedrih

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available A theoretical model of multistep gear transmission dynamics is presented. This model is based on the assumption that the connection between the teeth of the gears is with properties within the range from ideal clasic to viscoelastic so that a new model of connection between the teeth was expressed by means of derivative of fractional order. For this model a two-step gear transmision with three degrees of freedom of motion has been used. The obtained solutions are in the analytic form of the expansion according to time. As boundary cases this model gives results for the case of ideally elastic connection of the gear teeth and for the case of viscoelastic connection of the gear teeth, as well. Eigen fractional modes are obtained and a vizualization is done.

  9. Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikola Simidjievski

    Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.

  10. Emergent spatial structures in flocking models: a dynamical system insight.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caussin, Jean-Baptiste; Solon, Alexandre; Peshkov, Anton; Chaté, Hugues; Dauxois, Thierry; Tailleur, Julien; Vitelli, Vincenzo; Bartolo, Denis

    2014-04-11

    We show that hydrodynamic theories of polar active matter generically possess inhomogeneous traveling solutions. We introduce a unifying dynamical-system framework to establish the shape of these intrinsically nonlinear patterns, and show that they correspond to those hitherto observed in experiments and numerical simulation: periodic density waves, and solitonic bands, or polar-liquid droplets both cruising in isotropic phases. We elucidate their respective multiplicity and mutual relations, as well as their existence domain.

  11. Integrated wetland management: an analysis with group model building based on system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hsin; Chang, Yang-Chi; Chen, Kung-Chen

    2014-12-15

    The wetland system possesses diverse functions such as preserving water sources, mediating flooding, providing habitats for wildlife and stabilizing coastlines. Nonetheless, rapid economic growth and the increasing population have significantly deteriorated the wetland environment. To secure the sustainability of the wetland, it is essential to introduce integrated and systematic management. This paper examines the resource management of the Jiading Wetland by applying group model building (GMB) and system dynamics (SD). We systematically identify local stakeholders' mental model regarding the impact brought by the yacht industry, and further establish a SD model to simulate the dynamic wetland environment. The GMB process improves the stakeholders' understanding about the interaction between the wetland environment and management policies. Differences between the stakeholders' perceptions and the behaviors shown by the SD model also suggest that our analysis would facilitate the stakeholders to broaden their horizons and achieve consensus on the wetland resource management. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Human growth and body weight dynamics: an integrative systems model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir

    2014-01-01

    Quantifying human weight and height dynamics due to growth, aging, and energy balance can inform clinical practice and policy analysis. This paper presents the first mechanism-based model spanning full individual life and capturing changes in body weight, composition and height. Integrating previous empirical and modeling findings and validated against several additional empirical studies, the model replicates key trends in human growth including A) Changes in energy requirements from birth to old ages. B) Short and long-term dynamics of body weight and composition. C) Stunted growth with chronic malnutrition and potential for catch up growth. From obesity policy analysis to treating malnutrition and tracking growth trajectories, the model can address diverse policy questions. For example I find that even without further rise in obesity, the gap between healthy and actual Body Mass Indexes (BMIs) has embedded, for different population groups, a surplus of 14%-24% in energy intake which will be a source of significant inertia in obesity trends. In another analysis, energy deficit percentage needed to reduce BMI by one unit is found to be relatively constant across ages. Accompanying documented and freely available simulation model facilitates diverse applications customized to different sub-populations.

  13. Coupled Dynamic Modeling of Floating Wind Turbine Systems: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wayman, E. N.; Sclavounos, P. D.; Butterfield, S.; Jonkman, J.; Musial, W.

    2006-03-01

    This article presents a collaborative research program that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have undertaken to develop innovative and cost-effective floating and mooring systems for offshore wind turbines in water depths of 10-200 m. Methods for the coupled structural, hydrodynamic, and aerodynamic analysis of floating wind turbine systems are presented in the frequency domain. This analysis was conducted by coupling the aerodynamics and structural dynamics code FAST [4] developed at NREL with the wave load and response simulation code WAMIT (Wave Analysis at MIT) [15] developed at MIT. Analysis tools were developed to consider coupled interactions between the wind turbine and the floating system. These include the gyroscopic loads of the wind turbine rotor on the tower and floater, the aerodynamic damping introduced by the wind turbine rotor, the hydrodynamic damping introduced by wave-body interactions, and the hydrodynamic forces caused by wave excitation. Analyses were conducted for two floater concepts coupled with the NREL 5-MW Offshore Baseline wind turbine in water depths of 10-200 m: the MIT/NREL Shallow Drafted Barge (SDB) and the MIT/NREL Tension Leg Platform (TLP). These concepts were chosen to represent two different methods of achieving stability to identify differences in performance and cost of the different stability methods. The static and dynamic analyses of these structures evaluate the systems' responses to wave excitation at a range of frequencies, the systems' natural frequencies, and the standard deviations of the systems' motions in each degree of freedom in various wind and wave environments. This article in various wind and wave environments. This article explores the effects of coupling the wind turbine with the floating platform, the effects of water depth, and the effects of wind speed on the systems' performance. An economic feasibility analysis of

  14. Electroneutral models for dynamic Poisson-Nernst-Planck systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Zilong; Cao, Xiulei; Huang, Huaxiong

    2018-01-01

    The Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) system is a standard model for describing ion transport. In many applications, e.g., ions in biological tissues, the presence of thin boundary layers poses both modeling and computational challenges. In this paper, we derive simplified electroneutral (EN) models where the thin boundary layers are replaced by effective boundary conditions. There are two major advantages of EN models. First, it is much cheaper to solve them numerically. Second, EN models are easier to deal with compared to the original PNP system; therefore, it would also be easier to derive macroscopic models for cellular structures using EN models. Even though the approach used here is applicable to higher-dimensional cases, this paper mainly focuses on the one-dimensional system, including the general multi-ion case. Using systematic asymptotic analysis, we derive a variety of effective boundary conditions directly applicable to the EN system for the bulk region. This EN system can be solved directly and efficiently without computing the solution in the boundary layer. The derivation is based on matched asymptotics, and the key idea is to bring back higher-order contributions into the effective boundary conditions. For Dirichlet boundary conditions, the higher-order terms can be neglected and the classical results (continuity of electrochemical potential) are recovered. For flux boundary conditions, higher-order terms account for the accumulation of ions in boundary layer and neglecting them leads to physically incorrect solutions. To validate the EN model, numerical computations are carried out for several examples. Our results show that solving the EN model is much more efficient than the original PNP system. Implemented with the Hodgkin-Huxley model, the computational time for solving the EN model is significantly reduced without sacrificing the accuracy of the solution due to the fact that it allows for relatively large mesh and time-step sizes.

  15. Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models : Regression analysis and statistical design of experiments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    1995-01-01

    This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for

  16. Dynamic Thermal Model And Control Of A Pem Fuel Cell System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liso, Vincenzo; Nielsen, Mads Pagh

    2013-01-01

    A lumped parameter dynamic model is developed for predicting the stack performance, temperatures of the exit reactant gases and coolant liquid outlet in a proton-exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system. The air compressor, humidifier and cooling heat exchanger models are integrated to study...... the performance of the thermal system, especially when investigating applications that have highly dynamic operating conditions....

  17. Modeling and simulation of dynamic voltage restorer in power system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Abdel Aziz, M.A.A.M.

    2012-01-01

    There are many loads subjected to several Power Quality Problems such as voltage sags/swells, unbalance, harmonics distortion, and short interruption. These loads encompass a wide range of equipment which are very sensitive to voltage disturbances. The Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR) has recently been introduced to protect sensitive loads from voltage sags and other voltage disturbances in addition to this, it mitigates current harmonics distortion. It is a series connected power electronic based device. It is considered as one of the most efficient and effective solutions. Its appeal includes smaller size and fast dynamic response to disturbances. This work describes a proposal of the DVR to improve power quality distribution (medium voltage) system. The control of the compensation voltage and harmonics cancellation in the DVR is based on Adaptive Noise Canceling (ANC) technique. Simulation results carried out by PSCAD/EMTDC to investigate the performance of the proposed method.

  18. Dynamic room pricing model for hotel revenue management systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heba Abdel Aziz

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of room pricing in hotels. We propose a hotel revenue management model based on dynamic pricing to provide hotel managers with a flexible and efficient decision support tool for room revenue maximization. The two pillars of the proposed framework are a novel optimization model, and a multi-class scheme similar to the one implemented in airlines. Our hypothesis is that this framework can overcome the limitations associated with the research gaps in pricing literature; and can also contribute significantly in increasing the revenue of hotels. We test this hypothesis on three different approaches, and the results show an increase in revenue compared to the classical model used in literature.

  19. Explorations in combining cognitive models of individuals and system dynamics models of groups.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.

    2008-07-01

    This report documents a demonstration model of interacting insurgent leadership, military leadership, government leadership, and societal dynamics under a variety of interventions. The primary focus of the work is the portrayal of a token societal model that responds to leadership activities. The model also includes a linkage between leadership and society that implicitly represents the leadership subordinates as they directly interact with the population. The societal model is meant to demonstrate the efficacy and viability of using System Dynamics (SD) methods to simulate populations and that these can then connect to cognitive models depicting individuals. SD models typically focus on average behavior and thus have limited applicability to describe small groups or individuals. On the other hand, cognitive models readily describe individual behavior but can become cumbersome when used to describe populations. Realistic security situations are invariably a mix of individual and population dynamics. Therefore, the ability to tie SD models to cognitive models provides a critical capability that would be otherwise be unavailable.

  20. CADLIVE toolbox for MATLAB: automatic dynamic modeling of biochemical networks with comprehensive system analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Kentaro; Maeda, Kazuhiro; Miyabe, Takaaki; Matsuoka, Yu; Kurata, Hiroyuki

    2014-09-01

    Mathematical modeling has become a standard technique to understand the dynamics of complex biochemical systems. To promote the modeling, we had developed the CADLIVE dynamic simulator that automatically converted a biochemical map into its associated mathematical model, simulated its dynamic behaviors and analyzed its robustness. To enhance the feasibility by CADLIVE and extend its functions, we propose the CADLIVE toolbox available for MATLAB, which implements not only the existing functions of the CADLIVE dynamic simulator, but also the latest tools including global parameter search methods with robustness analysis. The seamless, bottom-up processes consisting of biochemical network construction, automatic construction of its dynamic model, simulation, optimization, and S-system analysis greatly facilitate dynamic modeling, contributing to the research of systems biology and synthetic biology. This application can be freely downloaded from http://www.cadlive.jp/CADLIVE_MATLAB/ together with an instruction.

  1. The Dynamic Anaerobic Reactor & Integrated Energy System (DARIES) model: model development, validation, and sensitivity analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brouwer, A F; Grimberg, S J; Powers, S E

    2012-12-01

    The Dynamic Anaerobic Reactor & Integrated Energy System (DARIES) model has been developed as a biogas and electricity production model of a dairy farm anaerobic digester system. DARIES, which incorporates the Anaerobic Digester Model No. 1 (ADM1) and simulations of both combined heat and power (CHP) and digester heating systems, may be run in either completely mixed or plug flow reactor configurations. DARIES biogas predictions were shown to be statistically coincident with measured data from eighteen full-scale dairy operations in the northeastern United States. DARIES biogas predictions were more accurate than predictions made by the U.S. AgSTAR model FarmWare 3.4. DARIES electricity production predictions were verified against data collected by the NYSERDA DG/CHP Integrated Data System. Preliminary sensitivity analysis demonstrated that DARIES output was most sensitive to influent flow rate, chemical oxygen demand (COD), and biodegradability, and somewhat sensitive to hydraulic retention time and digester temperature.

  2. Study of system dynamics model and control of a high-power LED lighting luminaire

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, B.-J.; Hsu, P.-C.; Wu, M.-S.; Tang, C.-W.

    2007-01-01

    The purpose of the present study is to design a current control system which is robust to the system dynamics uncertainty and the disturbance of ambient temperature to assure a stable optical output property of LED. The system dynamics model of the LED lighting system was first derived. A 96 W high-power LED luminaire was designed and built in the present study. The linearly perturbed system dynamics model for the LED luminaire is derived experimentally. The dynamics model of LED lighting system is of a multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) system with two inputs (applied voltage and ambient temperature) and two outputs (forward current and heat conducting body temperature). A step response test method was employed to the 96 W LED luminaire to identify the system dynamics model. It is found that the current model is just a constant gain (resistance) and the disturbance model is of first order, both changing with operating conditions (voltage and ambient temperature). A feedback control system using PI algorithm was designed using the results of the system dynamics model. The control system was implemented on a PIC microprocessor. Experimental results show that the control system can stably and accurately control the LED current to a constant value at the variation of ambient temperature up to 40 o C. The control system is shown to have a robust property with respect to the plant uncertainty and the ambient temperature disturbance

  3. Dynamic Modeling and Control of Electromechanical Coupling for Mechanical Elastic Energy Storage System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yang Yu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available The structural scheme of mechanical elastic energy storage (MEES system served by permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM and bidirectional converters is designed. The aim of the research is to model and control the complex electromechanical system. The mechanical device of the complex system is considered as a node in generalized coordinate system, the terse nonlinear dynamic model of electromechanical coupling for the electromechanical system is constructed through Lagrange-Maxwell energy method, and the detailed deduction of the mathematical model is presented in the paper. The theory of direct feedback linearization (DFL is applied to decouple the nonlinear dynamic model and convert the developed model from nonlinear to linear. The optimal control theory is utilized to accomplish speed tracking control for the linearized system. The simulation results in three different cases show that the proposed nonlinear dynamic model of MEES system is correct; the designed algorithm has a better control performance in contrast with the conventional PI control.

  4. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Anca D.; Iov, Florin; Sørensen, Poul

    This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risø-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database...... speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept 3. Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies......, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine concepts, their performance in normal or fault operation being assessed and discussed by means of simulations. The described control...

  5. Nitrogen dynamics in flooded soil systems: An overview on concepts and performance of models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khairudin, Nurul; Gaydon, Donald S.; Jing, Qi; Zakaria, Mohamad P.; Struik, Paul C.; Keesman, Karel J.

    2018-01-01

    Extensive modelling studies on nitrogen (N) dynamics in flooded soil systems have been published. Consequently, many N dynamics models are available for users to select from. With the current research trend, inclined towards multi-disciplinary research, and with substantial progress in understanding

  6. System dynamics modeling on health care: supply and demand of dementia care

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rouwette, E.A.J.A.

    2006-01-01

    This presentation will address the use of system dynamics models to analyze complex problems in health care. System dynamics has been used on health related issues since at least the 1960s and in the Netherlands since the 1980s. In this approach a group of experts and stakeholders participates in

  7. An Exploration of the System Dynamics Field : A Model-Based Policy Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Rose, A.C.

    2014-01-01

    This report presents a first look study at the field of System Dynamics. The objective of the study is to perform a model-based policy analysis in order to investigate the future advancement of the System Dynamics field. The aim of this investigation is to determine what this advancement should look

  8. Integrating System Dynamics with Object-Role Modeling and Petri Nets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tulinayo, F.P.; Hoppenbrouwers, S.J.B.A.; Bommel, P. van; Proper, H.A.; Mendling, J.; Rinderle-Ma, S.; Esswein, W.

    2009-01-01

    The art of System Dynamics (SD) modeling lies in discovering and repre- senting the feedback processes and other elements that determine the dynamics of a system. However, SD shows a lack of means for discovering and expressing precise, language-based concepts in domains. Therefore, we choose to use

  9. Thermodynamic modeling, energy equipartition, and nonconservation of entropy for discrete-time dynamical systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chellaboina Vijaysekhar

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We develop thermodynamic models for discrete-time large-scale dynamical systems. Specifically, using compartmental dynamical system theory, we develop energy flow models possessing energy conservation, energy equipartition, temperature equipartition, and entropy nonconservation principles for discrete-time, large-scale dynamical systems. Furthermore, we introduce a new and dual notion to entropy; namely, ectropy, as a measure of the tendency of a dynamical system to do useful work and grow more organized, and show that conservation of energy in an isolated thermodynamic system necessarily leads to nonconservation of ectropy and entropy. In addition, using the system ectropy as a Lyapunov function candidate, we show that our discrete-time, large-scale thermodynamic energy flow model has convergent trajectories to Lyapunov stable equilibria determined by the system initial subsystem energies.

  10. Dynamical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Birkhoff, George D

    1927-01-01

    His research in dynamics constitutes the middle period of Birkhoff's scientific career, that of maturity and greatest power. -Yearbook of the American Philosophical Society The author's great book€¦is well known to all, and the diverse active modern developments in mathematics which have been inspired by this volume bear the most eloquent testimony to its quality and influence. -Zentralblatt MATH In 1927, G. D. Birkhoff wrote a remarkable treatise on the theory of dynamical systems that would inspire many later mathematicians to do great work. To a large extent, Birkhoff was writing about his o

  11. Complex stochastic dynamics in the modeling of living systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lesne, A.

    2010-01-01

    I will discuss on general grounds some specific aspects of living systems compared to physical ones and the ensuing requirements for their modeling. I will argue that a main specificity of living systems lies in their complex multilevel organization, in which emergent properties exert regulatory feedbacks onto the elements state spaces and rules of evolution. As an illustration, I will detail a scenario of metastasis formation (cancer cells escape from a primary tumor to form a secondary tumor) we recently proposed in collaboration with experimental cell biologists. (author)

  12. Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pin, F.G.

    1987-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed

  13. Participatory System Dynamics Modeling: Increasing Stakeholder Engagement and Precision to Improve Implementation Planning in Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zimmerman, Lindsey; Lounsbury, David W; Rosen, Craig S; Kimerling, Rachel; Trafton, Jodie A; Lindley, Steven E

    2016-11-01

    Implementation planning typically incorporates stakeholder input. Quality improvement efforts provide data-based feedback regarding progress. Participatory system dynamics modeling (PSD) triangulates stakeholder expertise, data and simulation of implementation plans prior to attempting change. Frontline staff in one VA outpatient mental health system used PSD to examine policy and procedural "mechanisms" they believe underlie local capacity to implement evidence-based psychotherapies (EBPs) for PTSD and depression. We piloted the PSD process, simulating implementation plans to improve EBP reach. Findings indicate PSD is a feasible, useful strategy for building stakeholder consensus, and may save time and effort as compared to trial-and-error EBP implementation planning.

  14. Analysis of Ecodesign Implementation and Solutions for Packaging Waste System by Using System Dynamics Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berzina, Alise; Dace, Elina; Bazbauers, Gatis

    2010-01-01

    This paper discusses the findings of a research project which explored the packaging waste management system in Latvia. The paper focuses on identifying how the policy mechanisms can promote ecodesign implementation and material efficiency improvement and therefore reduce the rate of packaging waste accumulation in landfill. The method used for analyzing the packaging waste management policies is system dynamics modeling. The main conclusion is that the existing legislative instruments can be used to create an effective policy for ecodesign implementation but substantially higher tax rates on packaging materials and waste disposal than the existing have to be applied.

  15. Dynamic modeling and performance evaluation of axial flux PMSG based wind turbine system with MPPT control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Behjat

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available This research work develops dynamic model of a gearless small scale wind power generation system based on a direct driven single sided outer rotor AFPMSG with coreless armature winding. Dynamic modeling of the AFPMSG based wind turbine requires machine parameters. To this end, a 3D FEM model of the generator is developed and from magnetostatic and transient analysis of the FEM model, machine parameters are calculated and utilized in dynamic modeling of the system. A maximum power point tracking (MPPT-based FOC control approach is used to obtain maximum power from the variable wind speed. The simulation results show the proper performance of the developed dynamic model of the AFPMSG, control approach and power generation system.

  16. Evolution of the DeNOC-based dynamic modelling for multibody systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. K. Saha

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic modelling of a multibody system plays very essential role in its analyses. As a result, several methods for dynamic modelling have evolved over the years that allow one to analyse multibody systems in a very efficient manner. One such method of dynamic modelling is based on the concept of the Decoupled Natural Orthogonal Complement (DeNOC matrices. The DeNOC-based methodology for dynamics modelling, since its introduction in 1995, has been applied to a variety of multibody systems such as serial, parallel, general closed-loop, flexible, legged, cam-follower, and space robots. The methodology has also proven useful for modelling of proteins and hyper-degree-of-freedom systems like ropes, chains, etc. This paper captures the evolution of the DeNOC-based dynamic modelling applied to different type of systems, and its benefits over other existing methodologies. It is shown that the DeNOC-based modelling provides deeper understanding of the dynamics of a multibody system. The power of the DeNOC-based modelling has been illustrated using several numerical examples.

  17. System Dynamics Modeling in Entrepreneurship Research: A Review of the Literature

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Reza Zali

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics is a strategic approach for modeling complex systems and analyzing their behavior. Dynamic behavior in entrepreneurial system can be modeled using System Dynamics Approach and dynamic hypotheses about the system`s behavior can be proposed and tested using simulation and computer aided tools. However, as the review of literature shows, studies which link system dynamics modeling with entrepreneurship are rare and fragmented. This article presents a review of studies on the subject followed by integration and discussion on main research issues that have been the focus of previous studies. The main aim of this review is to categorize the available research related to the application of system dynamics modeling in entrepreneurship to integrate research and enable recommendations for future research. The Results reveal that the previous research could be categorized under a two dimensional taxonomy composed of level of analysis and level of modeling. The Level of analysis has three categories: micro level, meso level and macro level. The Level of modeling has six hierarchical levels. This study identifies several gaps in the literature and discusses the future directions in this field.

  18. System Dynamic Analysis of a Wind Tunnel Model with Applications to Improve Aerodynamic Data Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buehrle, Ralph David

    1997-01-01

    The research investigates the effect of wind tunnel model system dynamics on measured aerodynamic data. During wind tunnel tests designed to obtain lift and drag data, the required aerodynamic measurements are the steady-state balance forces and moments, pressures, and model attitude. However, the wind tunnel model system can be subjected to unsteady aerodynamic and inertial loads which result in oscillatory translations and angular rotations. The steady-state force balance and inertial model attitude measurements are obtained by filtering and averaging data taken during conditions of high model vibrations. The main goals of this research are to characterize the effects of model system dynamics on the measured steady-state aerodynamic data and develop a correction technique to compensate for dynamically induced errors. Equations of motion are formulated for the dynamic response of the model system subjected to arbitrary aerodynamic and inertial inputs. The resulting modal model is examined to study the effects of the model system dynamic response on the aerodynamic data. In particular, the equations of motion are used to describe the effect of dynamics on the inertial model attitude, or angle of attack, measurement system that is used routinely at the NASA Langley Research Center and other wind tunnel facilities throughout the world. This activity was prompted by the inertial model attitude sensor response observed during high levels of model vibration while testing in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The inertial attitude sensor cannot distinguish between the gravitational acceleration and centrifugal accelerations associated with wind tunnel model system vibration, which results in a model attitude measurement bias error. Bias errors over an order of magnitude greater than the required device accuracy were found in the inertial model attitude measurements during dynamic testing of two model systems. Based on a theoretical modal

  19. System dynamics model for environment - human systems interaction in the mining industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pal, B.K.

    1994-01-01

    Use of advanced technology in the mining activities are polluting the natural environment, interfering with the normal life of the miners/residents. In this paper, health hazards due to underground workings and effect of environmental conditions on men are discussed. A composite system inter-relationship of the mining industries with the Government, society and environmental sectors is established. Allowing certain level of pollution, a system dynamics model is developed considering the parameters like more revenues from the mining industries, degradation of quality of life index - environmental index on long-term and short-term basis, new diseases due to pollution, social awareness, health care facilities, tax exemption etc. This model will help us to understand the optimisation of the parameters to establish the better interaction in the environment-human systems in the mining industries. 14 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

  20. AeroPropulsoServoElasticity: Dynamic Modeling of the Variable Cycle Propulsion System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopasakis, George

    2012-01-01

    This presentation was made at the 2012 Fundamental Aeronautics Program Technical Conference and it covers research work for the Dynamic Modeling of the Variable cycle Propulsion System that was done under the Supersonics Project, in the area of AeroPropulsoServoElasticity. The presentation covers the objective for the propulsion system dynamic modeling work, followed by the work that has been done so far to model the variable Cycle Engine, modeling of the inlet, the nozzle, the modeling that has been done to model the affects of flow distortion, and finally presenting some concluding remarks and future plans.

  1. Integrated Reacting Fluid Dynamics and Predictive Materials Degradation Models for Propulsion System Conditions, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are routinely used by NASA to optimize the design of propulsion systems. Current methods for CFD modeling rely on...

  2. Strategic energy planning: Modelling and simulating energy market behaviours using system thinking and systems dynamics principles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Papageorgiou, George Nathaniel

    2005-01-01

    In the face of limited energy reserves and the global warming phenomenon, Europe is undergoing a transition from rapidly depleting fossil fuels to renewable unconventional energy sources. During this transition period, energy shortfalls will occur and energy prices will be increasing in an oscillating manner. As a result of the turbulence and dynamicity that will accompany the transition period, energy analysts need new appropriate methods, techniques and tools in order to develop forecasts for the behaviour of energy markets, which would assist in the long term strategic energy planning and policy analysis. This paper reviews energy market behaviour as related to policy formation, and from a dynamic point of view through the use of ''systems thinking'' and ''system dynamics'' principles, provides a framework for modelling the energy production and consumption process in relation to their environment. Thereby, effective energy planning can be developed via computerised simulation using policy experimentation. In a demonstration model depicted in this paper, it is shown that disasters due to attractive policies can be avoided by using simple computer simulation. (Author)

  3. Multivariable control system for dynamic PEM fuel cell model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tanislav, Vasile; Carcadea, Elena; Capris, Catalin; Culcer, Mihai; Raceanu, Mircea

    2010-01-01

    Full text: The main objective of this work was to develop a multivariable control system of robust type for a PEM fuel cells assembly. The system will be used in static and mobile applications for different values of power, generated by a fuel cell assembly of up to 10 kW. Intermediate steps were accomplished: a study of a multivariable control strategy for a PEM fuel cell assembly; a mathematic modeling of mass and heat transfer inside of fuel cell assembly, defining the response function to hydrogen and oxygen/air mass flow and inlet pressure changes; a testing stand for fuel cell assembly; experimental determinations of transient response for PEM fuel cell assembly, and more others. To define the multivariable control system for a PEM fuel cell assembly the parameters describing the system were established. Also, there were defined the generic mass and energy balance equations as functions of derivative of m i , in and m i , out , representing the mass going into and out from the fuel cell, while Q in is the enthalpy and Q out is the enthalpy of the unused reactant gases and heat produced by the product, Q dis is the heat dissipated to the surroundings, Q c is the heat taken away from the stack by active cooling and W el is the electricity generated. (authors)

  4. The System Dynamics Model User Sustainability Explorer (SD-MUSE) user interface: a user-friendly tool for interpreting system dynamic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sustainability-based decision making is a challenging process that requires balancing trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental components. System Dynamic (SD) models can be useful tools to inform sustainability-based decision making because they provide a holistic co...

  5. Using System Dynamic Model and Neural Network Model to Analyse Water Scarcity in Sudan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Tang, C.; Xu, L.; Ye, S.

    2017-07-01

    Many parts of the world are facing the problem of Water Scarcity. Analysing Water Scarcity quantitatively is an important step to solve the problem. Water scarcity in a region is gauged by WSI (water scarcity index), which incorporate water supply and water demand. To get the WSI, Neural Network Model and SDM (System Dynamic Model) that depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand are developed to depict how environmental and social factors affect water supply and demand. The uneven distribution of water resource and water demand across a region leads to an uneven distribution of WSI within this region. To predict WSI for the future, logistic model, Grey Prediction, and statistics are applied in predicting variables. Sudan suffers from severe water scarcity problem with WSI of 1 in 2014, water resource unevenly distributed. According to the result of modified model, after the intervention, Sudan’s water situation will become better.

  6. Interpersonal pattern dynamics and adaptive behavior in multiagent neurobiological systems: conceptual model and data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Passos, Pedro; Araújo, Duarte; Davids, Keith; Gouveia, Luis; Serpa, Sidónio; Milho, João; Fonseca, Sofia

    2009-10-01

    Ecological dynamics characterizes adaptive behavior as an emergent, self-organizing property of interpersonal interactions in complex social systems. The authors conceptualize and investigate constraints on dynamics of decisions and actions in the multiagent system of team sports. They studied coadaptive interpersonal dynamics in rugby union to model potential control parameter and collective variable relations in attacker-defender dyads. A videogrammetry analysis revealed how some agents generated fluctuations by adapting displacement velocity to create phase transitions and destabilize dyadic subsystems near the try line. Agent interpersonal dynamics exhibited characteristics of chaotic attractors and informational constraints of rugby union boxed dyadic systems into a low dimensional attractor. Data suggests that decisions and actions of agents in sports teams may be characterized as emergent, self-organizing properties, governed by laws of dynamical systems at the ecological scale. Further research needs to generalize this conceptual model of adaptive behavior in performance to other multiagent populations.

  7. Societal Aging in the Netherlands : Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Logtens, T.; Pruyt, E.; Gijsbers, G.W.

    2012-01-01

    Mismanagement of societal aging is an important threat to health care systems, social security systems, and the economy of many nations. a System Dynamics simulation model related to societal aging in the Netherlands and its implications for the Dutch welfare system is used here as a scenario

  8. Analysis and Modeling of Control Tasks in Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ursem, Rasmus Kjær; Krink, Thiemo; Jensen, Mikkel Thomas

    2002-01-01

    Most applications of evolutionary algorithms deal with static optimization problems. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in time-varying (dynamic) problems, which are typically found in real-world scenarios. One major challenge in this field is the design of realistic test......-case generators (TCGs), which requires a systematic analysis of dynamic optimization tasks. So far, only a few TCGs have been suggested. Our investigation leads to the conclusion that these TCGs are not capable of generating realistic dynamic benchmark tests. The result of our research is the design of a new TCG...

  9. Dynamic assessment of urban economy-environment-energy system using system dynamics model: A case study in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Desheng; Ning, Shuang

    2018-07-01

    Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  10. Anticipating Vulnerability to Climate Change in Dryland Pastoral Systems: Using Dynamic Systems Models for the Kalahari

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrew J. Dougill

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because of changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamic systems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1 different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2 rural communities' abilities to adapt to drought, mediated via their access to assets; and (3 the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a role in mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance. This is done by reanalyzing ecological and participatory research findings along with farm-scale livestock offtake data from across the Kalahari in Botswana. An iterative process was followed to establish narratives exploring how external drivers led to changes in agroecosystem resilience, access to assets, and the institutional capacity to buffer the system. We use "causal loop diagrams" and statistical dynamic system models to express key quantitative relationships and establish future scenarios to help define where uncertainties lie by showing where the system is most sensitive to change. We highlight how that greater sharing of land management knowledge and practices between private and communal land managers can provide 'win-win-win' benefits of reducing system vulnerability, increasing economic income, and building social capital. We use future scenario analyses to identify key areas for future studies of climate change adaptation across the Kalahari.

  11. Dynamics and Collapse in a Power System Model with Voltage Variation: The Damping Effect.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Jinpeng; Sun, Yong; Yuan, Xiaoming; Kurths, Jürgen; Zhan, Meng

    2016-01-01

    Complex nonlinear phenomena are investigated in a basic power system model of the single-machine-infinite-bus (SMIB) with a synchronous generator modeled by a classical third-order differential equation including both angle dynamics and voltage dynamics, the so-called flux decay equation. In contrast, for the second-order differential equation considering the angle dynamics only, it is the classical swing equation. Similarities and differences of the dynamics generated between the third-order model and the second-order one are studied. We mainly find that, for positive damping, these two models show quite similar behavior, namely, stable fixed point, stable limit cycle, and their coexistence for different parameters. However, for negative damping, the second-order system can only collapse, whereas for the third-order model, more complicated behavior may happen, such as stable fixed point, limit cycle, quasi-periodicity, and chaos. Interesting partial collapse phenomena for angle instability only and not for voltage instability are also found here, including collapse from quasi-periodicity and from chaos etc. These findings not only provide a basic physical picture for power system dynamics in the third-order model incorporating voltage dynamics, but also enable us a deeper understanding of the complex dynamical behavior and even leading to a design of oscillation damping in electric power systems.

  12. Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators–prey system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kooi, B.W.

    2015-01-01

    We study the dynamics of a predator–prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk–dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for

  13. Physically based dynamic modeling of planar anode-supported sofc cogeneration systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Albrecht, Kevin J.

    Abstract Solid oxide fuel cells (SOFC) have been a key area of academic research interest over the past decade due to their high electrical efficiency, fuel flexibility, and high quality waste heat. These benefits suggest that SOFCs could play a significant role as a future distributed generation, combined heat and power source if life cycle cost can be reduced or significant incentives such as a carbon tax are implemented. At the current point in SOFC development, degradation effects limit the operational lifetime of SOFCs. Other research efforts have suggested that the dynamic operation of SOFCs could improve the economics in addition to reducing degradation. Thus the development of high fidelity modeling tools for the assessment of dynamic SOFC system operation is important to determine the potential load-following ability of SOFC systems. One of the goals of this research is to identify the required level of fidelity necessary for a dynamic SOFC system-level simulation tool. The channel-level steady-state simulation and dynamic response to step changes in current density are presented for a one-dimensional and `quasi' two-dimensional model. The results indicate the predicted temperature gradient is less severe when implementing a higher fidelity `quasi' two-dimensional model. Additionally, the modeling and sizing of the balance of plant components to simulate off-design and system dynamics are presented. The effects of dynamic balance of plant components are compared to the typically accepted steady-state models. The incorporation of the dynamic balance of plant components are shown to have a significant effect on the dynamics of the waste heat recovery, where the power dynamics are only minimally affected. Finally, the steady-state performance at off-design conditions and dynamic response to step changes in the net system power are presented to assess the potential load-following ability of a combined heat and power SOFC system.

  14. Validation of a "Kane's Dynamics" Model for the Active Rack Isolation System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beech, Geoffrey S.; Hampton, R. David

    2000-01-01

    Many microgravity space-science experiments require vibratory acceleration levels unachievable without active isolation. The Boeing Corporation's Active Rack Isolation System (ARIS) employs a novel combination of magnetic actuation and mechanical linkages, to address these isolation requirements on the International Space Station (ISS). ARIS provides isolation at the rack (international Standard Payload Rack, or ISPR) level. Effective model-based vibration isolation requires (1) an isolation device, (2) an adequate dynamic (i.e., mathematical) model of that isolator, and (3) a suitable, corresponding controller, ARIS provides the ISS response to the first requirement. In November 1999, the authors presented a response to the second ("A 'Kane's Dynamics' model for the Active Rack Isolation System", Hampton and Beech) intended to facilitate an optimal-controls approach to the third. This paper documents the validation of that high-fidelity dynamic model of ARIS. As before, this model contains the full actuator dynamics, however, the umbilical models are not included in this presentation. The validation of this dynamics model was achieved by utilizing two Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) software tools: Deneb's ENVISION, and Online Dynamics' AUTOLEV. ENVISION is a robotics software package developed for the automotive industry that employs 3-dimensional (3-D) Computer Aided Design (CAD) models to facilitate both forward and inverse kinematics analyses. AUTOLEV is a DOS based interpreter that is designed in general to solve vector based mathematical problems and specifically to solve Dynamics problems using Kane's method.

  15. Evaluation of Student Models on Current Socio-Scientific Topics Based on System Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuhoglu, Hasret

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to 1) enable primary school students to develop models that will help them understand and analyze a system, through a learning process based on system dynamics approach, 2) examine and evaluate students' models related to socio-scientific issues using certain criteria. The research method used is a case study. The study sample…

  16. Modeling of integral-type Stirling refrigerator using system dynamics approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, B.J.; Chen, H.Y. [National Taiwan Univ., Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Taipei (Taiwan)

    2000-07-01

    A modeling of the integral-type Stirling refrigerator (ITSR) using a system dynamics approach is developed in the present study. The system dynamics models are derived to describe the input/output relation of each component of an ITSR. Connecting the equivalent circuits of the components together, we obtain a flow network diagram and derive a transfer function to represent system dynamics behavior of an ITSR. The performance analysis of an ITSR is then easily carried out by use of the transfer function with sinusoidal signal assumption. The performance calculation for a test refrigerator has shown that the analysis is accurate. An empirical correlation for a correction coefficient r in the expansion space was also derived for better results. The present study has demonstrated how a linear system theory or system dynamics approach can be applied to the design of an ITSR. (Author)

  17. REMOTE SYNTHESIS AND CONTROL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OF SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODELS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. V. Masloboev

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available The general line of research is concerned with development of information technologies and computer simulation tools for management information and analytical support of complex semistructured systems. Regional socio-economic systems are consideredas a representative of this system type. Investigation is carried out within the bounds of development strategy implementation of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and national safety until 2020 in the Murmansk region, specifically under engineering of high end information infrastructure for innovation and security control problem-solving of regional development. Research methodology consists of system dynamics modeling method, distributed information system engineering technologies, pattern-based modeling and design techniques. The work deals with development of toolkit for decision-making information support problem-solving in the field of innovation security management of regional economics. For that purpose a system-dynamic models suite of innovation process standard components and information technology for remote formation and control of innovation business simulation models under research have been developed. Designed toolkit provides innovation security index dynamics forecasting and innovation business effectiveness of regional economics. Information technology is implemented within the bounds of thin client architecture and is intended for simulation models design process automation of complex systems. Technology implementation software tools provide pattern-based system-dynamic models distributed formation and simulation control of innovation processes. The technology provides availability and reusability index enhancement of information support facilities in application to innovation process simulation at the expense of distributed access to innovation business simulation modeling tools and model synthesis by the reusable components, simulating standard elements of innovation

  18. Use of System Dynamics Techniques in the Garrison Health Modelling Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-11-01

    Joint Health Command (JHC) tasked DSTO to develop techniques for modelling Defence health service delivery both in a Garrison environment in Australia ...UNCLASSIFIED UNCLASSIFIED Use of System Dynamics Techniques in the Garrison Health Modelling Tool Mark Burnett, Kerry Clifford and...Garrison Health Modelling Tool, a prototype software package designed to provide decision-support to JHC health officers and managers in a garrison

  19. The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System: Experiences on Building a Collaborative Modeling Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Overeem, I.; Hutton, E.; Kettner, A.; Peckham, S. D.; Syvitski, J. P.

    2012-12-01

    The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System - CSDMS- develops a software platform with shared and coupled modules for modeling earth surface processes as a community resource. The framework allows prediction of water, sediment and nutrient transport through the landscape and seacape. The underlying paradigm is that the Earth surface we live on is a dynamic system; topography changes with seasons, with landslides and earthquakes, with erosion and deposition. The Earth Surface changes due to storms and floods, and important boundaries, like the coast, are ever-moving features. CSDMS sets out to make better predictions of these changes. Earth surface process modeling bridges the terrestrial, coastal and marine domains and requires understanding of the system over a range of time scales, which inherently needs interdisciplinarity. Members of CSDMS (~830 in July 2012) are largely from academic institutions (˜75%), followed by federal agencies (˜17%), and oil and gas companies (˜5%). Members and governmental bodies meet once annually and rely additionally on web-based information for communication. As an organization that relies on volunteer participation, CSDMS faces challenges to scientific collaboration. Encouraging volunteerism among its members to provide and adapt metadata and model code to be sufficiently standardized for coupling is crucial to building an integrated community modeling system. We here present CSDMS strategies aimed at providing the appropriate technical tools and cyberinfrastructure to support a variety of user types, ranging from advanced to novice modelers. Application of these advances in science is key, both into the educational realm and for managers and decision-makers. We discuss some of the implemented ideas to further organizational transparency and user engagement in small-scale governance, such as advanced trackers and voting systems for model development prioritization through the CSDMS wiki. We analyzed data on community

  20. Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling of the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle for AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seiel, Jonathan

    2016-01-01

    A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report

  1. Dynamics of pesticide uptake into plants: From system functioning to parsimonious modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Wannaz, Cedric

    2013-01-01

    harvested for human consumption by taking wheat grains as example. Results show that grains, grain surface and soil are the compartments predominantly influencing the mass evolution of most pesticides in the plant–environment system as a function of substance degradation in plant components and overall...... of model dynamics provides additional information of the evolution of pesticides in food crops, which is important for regulators and practitioners. In addition, the parametric representation of system dynamics allows for drastically reducing input data requirements and for comparing harvest fractions......Dynamic plant uptake models are suitable for assessing environmental fate and behavior of toxic chemicals in food crops. However, existing tools mostly lack in-depth analysis of system dynamics. Furthermore, no existing model is available as parameterized version that is easily applicable for use...

  2. An investigation of factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values based on the system dynamics modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lan, Tian-Syung; Chen, Kai-Ling; Chen, Pin-Chang; Ku, Chao-Tai; Chiu, Pei-Hsuan; Wang, Meng-Hsiang

    2014-01-01

    This study used system dynamics method to investigate the factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values. The construction of the dynamic model is divided into the qualitative causal loop and the quantitative system dynamics modeling. According to the system dynamics modeling, this study consisted of research on the four dimensions: student's personal life style, diet-relevant parenting behaviors, advocacy and implementation of school nutrition education, and students' peer interaction. The results of this study showed that students with more adequate health concepts usually have better eating behaviors and consequently have less chance of becoming obese. In addition, this study also verified that educational attainment and socioeconomic status of parents have a positive correlation with students' amounts of physical activity, and nutrition education has a prominent influence on changing students' high-calorie diets.

  3. System Dynamic Model for Simulating Demand-Supply Interaction of Railway Express Freight System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lingli Wang

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Express freight transportation is a rich seam of profit for China railway, and railway express freight system is a complex system with multiple variables and nonlinear feedback loops. This paper presents a System Dynamic Model for simulating the interaction between demand and supply of railway express freight system in China. The model consists of three submodels including economic environment, demand, supply, and investment, and its validity is verified by running in Vensim DDS software using historical data. In the simulation of period 2000–2025, the three variables are taken as control variables including growth rate of the national economy, railway express freight rate, and investment in fixed railway assets. Three scenarios for each control variable are simulated, and their effects are analyzed to provide beneficial reference for regulating the demand-supply gap of railway express freight. The simulation demonstrated that raising freight rate, adding investment in fixed railway assets, and decelerating economic growth rate are all effective ways to shrink the demand-supply gap of railway express freight. The model can be used to forecast the transport demand of railway express freight and test the outcomes of demand-supply regulating measures.

  4. Modeling of Macroeconomics by a Novel Discrete Nonlinear Fractional Dynamical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhenhua Hu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a new nonlinear economic system with fractional derivative. According to the Jumarie’s definition of fractional derivative, we obtain a discrete fractional nonlinear economic system. Three variables, the gross domestic production, inflation, and unemployment rate, are considered by this nonlinear system. Based on the concrete macroeconomic data of USA, the coefficients of this nonlinear system are estimated by the method of least squares. The application of discrete fractional economic model with linear and nonlinear structure is shown to illustrate the efficiency of modeling the macroeconomic data with discrete fractional dynamical system. The empirical study suggests that the nonlinear discrete fractional dynamical system can describe the actual economic data accurately and predict the future behavior more reasonably than the linear dynamic system. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to investigate other macroeconomic variables of more states.

  5. Dynamic Modeling and Simulation on a Hybrid Power System for Electric Vehicle Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-Wen He

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available Hybrid power systems, formed by combining high-energy-density batteries and high-power-density ultracapacitors in appropriate ways, provide high-performance and high-efficiency power systems for electric vehicle applications. This paper first establishes dynamic models for the ultracapacitor, the battery and a passive hybrid power system, and then based on the dynamic models a comparative simulation between a battery only power system and the proposed hybrid power system was done under the UDDS (Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule. The simulation results showed that the hybrid power system could greatly optimize and improve the efficiency of the batteries and their dynamic current was also decreased due to the participation of the ultracapacitors, which would have a good influence on batteries’ cycle life. Finally, the parameter matching for the passive hybrid power system was studied by simulation and comparisons.

  6. Dynamic modeling and simulation of a two-stage series-parallel vibration isolation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rong Guo

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available A two-stage series-parallel vibration isolation system is already widely used in various industrial fields. However, when the researchers analyze the vibration characteristics of a mechanical system, the system is usually regarded as a single-stage one composed of two substructures. The dynamic modeling of a two-stage series-parallel vibration isolation system using frequency response function–based substructuring method has not been studied. Therefore, this article presents the source-path-receiver model and the substructure property identification model of such a system. These two models make up the transfer path model of the system. And the model is programmed by MATLAB. To verify the proposed transfer path model, a finite element model simulating a vehicle system, which is a typical two-stage series-parallel vibration isolation system, is developed. The substructure frequency response functions and system level frequency response functions can be obtained by MSC Patran/Nastran and LMS Virtual.lab based on the finite element model. Next, the system level frequency response functions are substituted into the transfer path model to predict the substructural frequency response functions and the system response of the coupled structure can then be further calculated. By comparing the predicted results and exact value, the model proves to be correct. Finally, the random noise is introduced into several relevant system level frequency response functions for error sensitivity analysis. The system level frequency response functions that are most sensitive to the random error are found. Since a two-stage series-parallel system has not been well studied, the proposed transfer path model improves the dynamic theory of the multi-stage vibration isolation system. Moreover, the validation process of the model here actually provides an example for acoustic and vibration transfer path analysis based on the proposed model. And it is worth noting that the

  7. Capturing complexity in work disability research: application of system dynamics modeling methodology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Hettinger, Lawrence J

    2016-01-01

    Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models. System dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention. SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered. Contemporary work disability (WD) models provide limited insight into complexity associated with WD processes. System dynamics modeling (SDM) has the potential to capture complexity through a stakeholder-based approach that generates a simulation model consisting of multiple feedback loops. SDM may enable WD researchers and practitioners to understand the structure and behavior of the WD system as a whole, and inform development of improved strategies to manage straightforward and complex WD cases.

  8. Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling for the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle: AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph; Seidel, Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.propulsion system dynamics, the structural dynamics, and aerodynamics.

  9. Interactive Dynamic-System Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Korn, Granino A

    2010-01-01

    Showing you how to use personal computers for modeling and simulation, Interactive Dynamic-System Simulation, Second Edition provides a practical tutorial on interactive dynamic-system modeling and simulation. It discusses how to effectively simulate dynamical systems, such as aerospace vehicles, power plants, chemical processes, control systems, and physiological systems. Written by a pioneer in simulation, the book introduces dynamic-system models and explains how software for solving differential equations works. After demonstrating real simulation programs with simple examples, the author

  10. Modeling the Afferent Dynamics of the Baroreflex Control System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottesen, Johnny T.; Mahdi, Adam; Sturdy, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    In this study we develop a modeling framework for predicting baroreceptor firing rate as a function of blood pressure. We test models within this framework both quantitatively and qualitatively using data from rats. The models describe three components: arterial wall deformation, stimulation of m...

  11. PRESS-based EFOR algorithm for the dynamic parametrical modeling of nonlinear MDOF systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Haopeng; Zhu, Yunpeng; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai

    2017-09-01

    In response to the identification problem concerning multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) nonlinear systems, this study presents the extended forward orthogonal regression (EFOR) based on predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) to construct a nonlinear dynamic parametrical model. The proposed parametrical model is based on the non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model and aims to explicitly reveal the physical design parameters of the system. The PRESS-based EFOR algorithm is proposed to identify such a model for MDOF systems. By using the algorithm, we built a common-structured model based on the fundamental concept of evaluating its generalization capability through cross-validation. The resulting model aims to prevent over-fitting with poor generalization performance caused by the average error reduction ratio (AERR)-based EFOR algorithm. Then, a functional relationship is established between the coefficients of the terms and the design parameters of the unified model. Moreover, a 5-DOF nonlinear system is taken as a case to illustrate the modeling of the proposed algorithm. Finally, a dynamic parametrical model of a cantilever beam is constructed from experimental data. Results indicate that the dynamic parametrical model of nonlinear systems, which depends on the PRESS-based EFOR, can accurately predict the output response, thus providing a theoretical basis for the optimal design of modeling methods for MDOF nonlinear systems.

  12. Model Reduction of Linear Switched Systems by Restricting Discrete Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bastug, Mert; Petreczky, Mihaly; Wisniewski, Rafal

    2014-01-01

    We present a procedure for reducing the number of continuous states of discrete-time linear switched systems, such that the reduced system has the same behavior as the original system for a subset of switching sequences. The proposed method is expected to be useful for abstraction based control...

  13. Model selection for dynamical systems via sparse regression and information criteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mangan, N M; Kutz, J N; Brunton, S L; Proctor, J L

    2017-08-01

    We develop an algorithm for model selection which allows for the consideration of a combinatorially large number of candidate models governing a dynamical system. The innovation circumvents a disadvantage of standard model selection which typically limits the number of candidate models considered due to the intractability of computing information criteria. Using a recently developed sparse identification of nonlinear dynamics algorithm, the sub-selection of candidate models near the Pareto frontier allows feasible computation of Akaike information criteria (AIC) or Bayes information criteria scores for the remaining candidate models. The information criteria hierarchically ranks the most informative models, enabling the automatic and principled selection of the model with the strongest support in relation to the time-series data. Specifically, we show that AIC scores place each candidate model in the strong support , weak support or no support category. The method correctly recovers several canonical dynamical systems, including a susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered disease model, Burgers' equation and the Lorenz equations, identifying the correct dynamical system as the only candidate model with strong support.

  14. Functional System Dynamics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ligterink, N.E.

    2007-01-01

    Functional system dynamics is the analysis, modelling, and simulation of continuous systems usually described by partial differential equations. From the infinite degrees of freedom of such systems only a finite number of relevant variables have to be chosen for a practical model description. The

  15. Optimally Convex Controller and Model Reduction for a Dynamic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. S. KHUNTIA

    2008-07-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents analysis and design of a family of controllers based on numerical convex optimization for an aircraft pitch control system. A design method is proposed here to solve control system design problems in which a set of multiple closed loop performance specifications are simultaneously satisfied. The transfer matrix of the system is determined through the convex combination of the transfer matrices of the plant and the controllers. The present system with optimal convex controller has been tested for stability using Kharitonov’s Stability Criteria. The simulation deals here withthe problem of pitch control system of a BRAVO fighter aircraft which results in higher order close loop transfer function. So the order of the higher order transfer function is reduced to minimize the complexity of the system.

  16. Optimization Scheduling Model for Wind-thermal Power System Considering the Dynamic penalty factor

    Science.gov (United States)

    PENG, Siyu; LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, Hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; LIU, Wanyu

    2018-03-01

    In this paper, a new dynamic economic dispatch model for power system is presented.Objective function of the proposed model presents a major novelty in the dynamic economic dispatch including wind farm: introduced the “Dynamic penalty factor”, This factor could be computed by using fuzzy logic considering both the variable nature of active wind power and power demand, and it could change the wind curtailment cost according to the different state of the power system. Case studies were carried out on the IEEE30 system. Results show that the proposed optimization model could mitigate the wind curtailment and the total cost effectively, demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed model.

  17. Use of System Dynamics Modeling in Medical Education and Research Projects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bozikov, Jadranka; Relic, Danko; Dezelic, Gjuro

    2018-01-01

    The paper reviews experiences and accomplishments in application of system dynamics modeling in education, training and research projects at the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, a branch of the Zagreb University School of Medicine, Croatia. A number of simulation models developed over the past 40 years are briefly described with regard to real problems concerned, objectives and modeling methods and techniques used. Many of them have been developed as the individual students' projects as a part of their graduation, MSc or PhD theses and subsequently published in journals or conference proceedings. Some of them were later used in teaching and simulation training. System dynamics modeling proved to be not only powerful method for research and decision making but also a useful tool in medical and nursing education enabling better understanding of dynamic systems' behavior.

  18. Object Oriented Toolbox for Modelling and Simulation of Dynamic Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thomsen, Per Grove; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin; Wagner, Falko Jens

    1999-01-01

    Design and Implementation of a simulation toolbox based on Object Oriented modelling Techniques.Experimental implementation in C++ using the Godess ODE-solution platform.......Design and Implementation of a simulation toolbox based on Object Oriented modelling Techniques.Experimental implementation in C++ using the Godess ODE-solution platform....

  19. System Dynamics Model for VMI&TPL Integrated Supply Chains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guo Li

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper establishes VMI-APIOBPCS II model by extending VMI-APIOBPCS model from serial supply chain to distribution supply chain. Then TPL is introduced to this VMI distribution supply chain, and operational framework and process of VMI&TPL integrated supply chain are analyzed deeply. On this basis VMI-APIOBPCS II model is then changed to VMI&TPL-APIOBPCS model and VMI&TPL integrated operation mode is simulated. Finally, compared with VMI-APIOBPCS model, the TPL’s important role of goods consolidation and risk sharing in VMI&TPL integrated supply chain is analyzed in detail from the aspects of bullwhip effect, inventory level, service level, and so on.

  20. Dynamic Model and Control of a Photovoltaic Generation System using Energetic Macroscopic Representation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solano, Javier; Duarte, José; Vargas, Erwin; Cabrera, Jhon; Jácome, Andrés; Botero, Mónica; Rey, Juan

    2016-10-01

    This paper addresses the Energetic Macroscopic Representation EMR, the modelling and the control of photovoltaic panel PVP generation systems for simulation purposes. The model of the PVP considers the variations on irradiance and temperature. A maximum power point tracking MPPT algorithm is considered to control the power converter. A novel EMR is proposed to consider the dynamic model of the PVP with variations in the irradiance and the temperature. The EMR is evaluated through simulations of a PVP generation system.

  1. Analyzing dynamic fault trees derived from model-based system architectures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dehlinger, Josh; Dugan, Joanne Bechta

    2008-01-01

    Dependability-critical systems, such as digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants, necessitate engineering techniques and tools to provide assurances of their safety and reliability. Determining system reliability at the architectural design phase is important since it may guide design decisions and provide crucial information for trade-off analysis and estimating system cost. Despite this, reliability and system engineering remain separate disciplines and engineering processes by which the dependability analysis results may not represent the designed system. In this article we provide an overview and application of our approach to build architecture-based, dynamic system models for dependability-critical systems and then automatically generate Dynamic Fault Trees (DFT) for comprehensive, toolsupported reliability analysis. Specifically, we use the Architectural Analysis and Design Language (AADL) to model the structural, behavioral and failure aspects of the system in a composite architecture model. From the AADL model, we seek to derive the DFT(s) and use Galileo's automated reliability analyses to estimate system reliability. This approach alleviates the dependability engineering - systems engineering knowledge expertise gap, integrates the dependability and system engineering design and development processes and enables a more formal, automated and consistent DFT construction. We illustrate this work using an example based on a dynamic digital feed-water control system for a nuclear reactor

  2. On the dynamics of chain systems. [applications in manipulator and human body models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huston, R. L.; Passerello, C. E.

    1974-01-01

    A computer-oriented method for obtaining dynamical equations of motion for chain systems is presented. A chain system is defined as an arbitrarily assembled set of rigid bodies such that adjoining bodies have at least one common point and such that closed loops are not formed. The equations of motion are developed through the use of Lagrange's form of d'Alembert's principle. The method and procedure is illustrated with an elementary study of a tripod space manipulator. The method is designed for application with systems such as human body models, chains and cables, and dynamic finite-segment models.

  3. Dynamic Computer Model of a Stirling Space Nuclear Power System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-05-04

    attention in terms of analysis and modeling. Thus a study of the Stirling option could produce some meaningful results in an area that has received...less attention . This is especially true for a model of large Stirling engines such as those used for the SP- 100 design. Creating a model using this...Exchanger Cross Section Area (m^2) nht=2750*4; %number of hot heat exchanger gas tubes htd=0.0013/2; %Hot Heat Exchanger gas tube diameter (m) htA =nht*pi

  4. The importance of correct specification of tribological parameters in dynamical systems modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alaci, S.; Ciornei, F. C.; Romanu, I. C.; Ciornei, M. C.

    2018-01-01

    When modelling the behaviour of dynamical systems, the friction phenomenon cannot be neglected. Dry and fluid friction may occur, but dry friction has more severe effects upon the behaviour of the systems, based on the fact that the introduced discontinuities are more important. In the modelling of dynamical systems, dry friction is the main cause of occurrence of the bifurcation phenomenon. These aspects become more complex if, in the case of dry friction, static and dynamic frictions are put forward. The behaviour of a simple dynamical system is studied, consisting in a prismatic body linked to the ground by a spring, placed on a conveyor belt. The theoretical model is described by a nonlinear differential equation which after numerical integration leads to the conclusion that the steady motion of the prism is an un-damped oscillatory motion. The system was qualitatively modelled using specialised software for dynamical analysis. It was impractical to obtain a steady uniform translational motion of a rigid, therefore the conveyor belt was replaced by a metallic disc in uniform rotation motion. The attempts to compare the CAD model to the theoretical model were unsuccessful because the efforts of selecting the tribological parameters directed to the conclusion that the motion of the prism is a damped oscillation. To decide which of the methods depicts reality, a test-rig was assembled and it indicated a sustained oscillation. The conclusion is that the model employed by the dynamical analysis software cannot describe the actual model and a more complex model is required in the description of the friction phenomenon.

  5. Systems With Emergent Dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, Ian

    2002-09-01

    Evolutionary biologists often reject deterministic models of evolutionary processes because they equate `deterministic' with `goal-seeking', and have learned the hard way not to trust goal-seeking explanations of evolutionary adaptations. On the other hand, the general theory of dynamical systems potentially has much to offer for evolutionary biology— for example, as a resolution of the conflict between gradualism and punctuated equilibrium. The concept of a system with emergent dynamics retains the deterministic nature of dynamical systems, while eliminating any goal-seeking interpretation. Define an emergent property of a complex system to be a property whose computation from the entity-level rules of the system is intractable (in some reasonable sense). Say that a dynamical system has emergent dynamics if the computation of trajectories is intractable. Then systems with emergent dynamics are deterministic but not goal-seeking. As such, they offer a sensible way to use dynamical systems as models for evolutionary processes in biology, and in other areas. We discuss these issues and examine a few simple aspects of emergence in dynamical systems.

  6. Modeling the angular motion dynamics of spacecraft with a magnetic attitude control system based on experimental studies and dynamic similarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkov, V. M.; Medvedskii, A. L.; Terentyev, V. V.; Firsyuk, S. O.; Shemyakov, A. O.

    2017-12-01

    The problem of spacecraft attitude control using electromagnetic systems interacting with the Earth's magnetic field is considered. A set of dimensionless parameters has been formed to investigate the spacecraft orientation regimes based on dynamically similar models. The results of experimental studies of small spacecraft with a magnetic attitude control system can be extrapolated to the in-orbit spacecraft motion control regimes by using the methods of the dimensional and similarity theory.

  7. Modeling and Dynamic Analysis of Cutterhead Driving System in Tunnel Boring Machine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Sun

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Failure of cutterhead driving system (CDS of tunnel boring machine (TBM often occurs under shock and vibration conditions. To investigate the dynamic characteristics and reduce system vibration further, an electromechanical coupling model of CDS is established which includes the model of direct torque control (DTC system for three-phase asynchronous motor and purely torsional dynamic model of multistage gear transmission system. The proposed DTC model can provide driving torque just as the practical inverter motor operates so that the influence of motor operating behavior will not be erroneously estimated. Moreover, nonlinear gear meshing factors, such as time-variant mesh stiffness and transmission error, are involved in the dynamic model. Based on the established nonlinear model of CDS, vibration modes can be classified into three types, that is, rigid motion mode, rotational vibration mode, and planet vibration mode. Moreover, dynamic responses under actual driving torque and idealized equivalent torque are compared, which reveals that the ripple of actual driving torque would aggravate vibration of gear transmission system. Influence index of torque ripple is proposed to show that vibration of system increases with torque ripple. This study provides useful guideline for antivibration design and motor control of CDS in TBM.

  8. Dynamic Modeling and Simulation Tools for Utility Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Hock, Vincent

    2002-01-01

    Utility systems are enablers for the force projection process. They provide the electricity, water, transportation fuel, heating, cooling, compressed air, and communications required for the various steps of force projection...

  9. Dynamic modelling of nitrous oxide emissions from three Swedish sludge liquor treatment systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindblom, E.; Arnell, M.; Flores-Alsina, X.

    2014-01-01

    The objective of this paper is to model the dynamics and validate the results of nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from three Swedish nitrifying/denitrifying, nitritation and anammox systems treating real anaerobic digester sludge liquor. The Activated Sludge Model No. 1 is extended to describe N2O pr...

  10. Parameter subset selection for the dynamic calibration of activated sludge models (ASMs): experience versus systems analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruano, MV; Ribes, J; de Pauw, DJW

    2007-01-01

    In this work we address the issue of parameter subset selection within the scope of activated sludge model calibration. To this end, we evaluate two approaches: (i) systems analysis and (ii) experience-based approach. The evaluation has been carried out using a dynamic model (ASM2d) calibrated...

  11. Pseudorandom numbers: evolutionary models in image processing, biology, and nonlinear dynamic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yaroslavsky, Leonid P.

    1996-11-01

    We show that one can treat pseudo-random generators, evolutionary models of texture images, iterative local adaptive filters for image restoration and enhancement and growth models in biology and material sciences in a unified way as special cases of dynamic systems with a nonlinear feedback.

  12. Concordance of Interests in Dynamic Models of Social Partnership in the System of Continuing Professional Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarasenko, Larissa V.; Ougolnitsky, Guennady A.; Usov, Anatoly B.; Vaskov, Maksim A.; Kirik, Vladimir A.; Astoyanz, Margarita S.; Angel, Olga Y.

    2016-01-01

    A dynamic game theoretic model of concordance of interests in the process of social partnership in the system of continuing professional education is proposed. Non-cooperative, cooperative, and hierarchical setups are examined. Analytical solution for a linear state version of the model is provided. Nash equilibrium algorithms (for non-cooperative…

  13. System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivona Milić Beran

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

  14. Object Oriented Toolbox for Modelling and Simulation of Dynamical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin; Wagner, Falko Jens; Thomsen, Per Grove

    1998-01-01

    This paper presents the results of an ongoing project, dealing with design and implementation of a simulation toolbox based on object oriented modelling techniques. The paper describes an experimental implementation of parts of such a toolbox in C++, and discusses the experiences drawn from...

  15. Quantitative modeling of human performance in complex, dynamic systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Baron, Sheldon; Kruser, Dana S; Huey, Beverly Messick

    1990-01-01

    ... Sheldon Baron, Dana S. Kruser, and Beverly Messick Huey, editors Panel on Human Performance Modeling Committee on Human Factors Commission on Behavioral and Social Sciences and Education National Research Council NATIONAL ACADEMY PRESS Washington, D.C. 1990 Copyrightoriginal retained, the be not from cannot book, paper original however, for version forma...

  16. South African energy model: a system dynamics approach

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Musango, JK

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available of electricity, coal, oil, and natural gas in the sector. The model was used to examine a set of policies that the South African government is currently considering, e.g. expansion of nuclear energy production and implementation of more stringent energy...

  17. Dynamic modeling approaches to characterize the functioning of health systems: A systematic review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Angela Y; Ogbuoji, Osondu; Atun, Rifat; Verguet, Stéphane

    2017-12-01

    Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is one of the targets for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3. The impetus for UHC has led to an increased demand for time-sensitive tools to enhance our knowledge of how health systems function and to evaluate impact of system interventions. We define the field of "health system modeling" (HSM) as an area of research where dynamic mathematical models can be designed in order to describe, predict, and quantitatively capture the functioning of health systems. HSM can be used to explore the dynamic relationships among different system components, including organizational design, financing and other resources (such as investments in resources and supply chain management systems) - what we call "inputs" - on access, coverage, and quality of care - what we call "outputs", toward improved health system "outcomes", namely increased levels and fairer distributions of population health and financial risk protection. We undertook a systematic review to identify the existing approaches used in HSM. We identified "systems thinking" - a conceptual and qualitative description of the critical interactions within a health system - as an important underlying precursor to HSM, and collated a critical collection of such articles. We then reviewed and categorized articles from two schools of thoughts: "system dynamics" (SD)" and "susceptible-infected-recovered-plus" (SIR+). SD emphasizes the notion of accumulations of stocks in the system, inflows and outflows, and causal feedback structure to predict intended and unintended consequences of policy interventions. The SIR + models link a typical disease transmission model with another that captures certain aspects of the system that impact the outcomes of the main model. These existing methods provide critical insights in informing the design of HSM, and provide a departure point to extend this research agenda. We highlight the opportunity to advance modeling methods to further understand

  18. Fuel cell/back-up battery hybrid energy conversion systems: Dynamic modeling and harmonic considerations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fathabadi, Hassan

    2015-01-01

    Highlights: • Novel technique to completely eliminate the harmful harmonics of fuel cell system. • Presenting a novel high accurate detailed electrochemical dynamic model of fuel cells. • Back-up battery system to compensate the slow dynamic response of fuel cell system. • Exact analysis of real electrochemical reactions occurring inside fuel cells. - Abstract: In this study, a novel dynamic model of fuel cells is presented. High accurate static and dynamic responses of the proposed model are experimentally validated by comparing simulated results with real experimental data. The obtained model together with theoretical results shows that a fuel cell or a fuel cell stack has very slow dynamic response, so that, it cannot adapt itself to the fast variations in load demand. It is shown that for adapting well a fuel cell stack to the load demand, the stack should be equipped with a proposed back-up battery system which compensates the slow dynamic response of the stack by providing a bidirectional path to transmit/absorb the extra instant power. It is proved that the conventional switching waveforms used in the converters of the stacks and back-up systems produce an enormous amount of harmful harmonics. Then, a novel technique is proposed to completely eliminate main harmful harmonics. It is worthwhile to note that all the other techniques only reduce the harmful harmonics. Simulated results verify that the back-up battery system together with applying the proposed technique provide a fast dynamic response for the fuel cell/back-up battery system, and also completely eliminate the main harmful harmonics

  19. Dynamic modeling and explicit/multi-parametric MPC control of pressure swing adsorption systems

    KAUST Repository

    Khajuria, Harish

    2011-01-01

    Pressure swing adsorption (PSA) is a flexible, albeit complex gas separation system. Due to its inherent nonlinear nature and discontinuous operation, the design of a model based PSA controller, especially with varying operating conditions, is a challenging task. This work focuses on the design of an explicit/multi-parametric model predictive controller for a PSA system. Based on a system involving four adsorbent beds separating 70% H2, 30% CH4 mixture into high purity hydrogen, the key controller objective is to fast track H2 purity to a set point value of 99.99%. To perform this task, a rigorous and systematic framework is employed. First, a high fidelity detailed dynamic model is built to represent the system\\'s real operation, and understand its dynamic behavior. The model is then used to derive appropriate linear models by applying suitable system identification techniques. For the reduced models, a model predictive control (MPC) step is formulated, where latest developments in multi-parametric programming and control are applied to derive a novel explicit MPC controller. To test the performance of the designed controller, closed loop simulations are performed where the dynamic model is used as the virtual plant. Comparison studies of the derived explicit MPC controller are also performed with conventional PID controllers. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Accuracy Enhanced Stability and Structure Preserving Model Reduction Technique for Dynamical Systems with Second Order Structure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    gramians within the time interval to build the appropriate Petrov-Galerkin projection for dynamical systems within the time interval of interest. The bound on approximation error is also derived. The numerical results are compared with the counterparts from other techniques. The results confirm......A method for model reduction of dynamical systems with the second order structure is proposed in this paper. The proposed technique preserves the second order structure of the system, and also preserves the stability of the original systems. The method uses the controllability and observability...

  1. Dynamical systems approach to models in fluid mechanics

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Feireisl, Eduard

    2014-01-01

    Roč. 69, č. 2 (2014), s. 331-357 ISSN 0036-0279 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 320078 - MATHEF Keywords : Navier-Stokes-Fourier system * weak solution * long-time behaviour Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 1.036, year: 2014 http://iopscience.iop.org/0036-0279/69/2/331/

  2. A Study of Developing a System Dynamics Model for the Learning Effectiveness Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tian-Syung Lan

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This study used the research method of system dynamics and applied the Vensim software to develop a learning effectiveness evaluation model. This study developed four cause-and-effect chains affecting learning effectiveness, including teachers’ teaching enthusiasm, family involvement, school’s implementation of scientific activities, and creative teaching method, as well as the system dynamics model based on the four cause-and-effect chains. Based on the developed system dynamic model, this study performed simulation to investigate the relationship among family involvement, learning effectiveness, teaching achievement, creative teaching method, and students’ learning interest. The results of this study verified that there are positive correlations between family involvement and students’ learning effectiveness, as well as students’ learning effectiveness and teachers’ teaching achievements. The results also indicated that the use of creative teaching method is able to increase students’ learning interest and learning achievement.

  3. Dynamic heat transfer modeling and parametric study of thermoelectric radiant cooling and heating panel system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Yongqiang; Zhang, Ling; Liu, Zhongbing; Wang, Yingzi; Wu, Jing; Wang, Xiliang

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Dynamic model of thermoelectric radiant panel system is established. • The internal parameters of thermoelectric module are dynamically calculated in simulation. • Both artificial neural networks model and system model are verified through experiment data. • Optimized system structure is obtained through parametric study. - Abstract: Radiant panel system can optimize indoor thermal comfort with lower energy consumption. The thermoelectric radiant panel (TERP) system is a new and effective prototype of radiant system using thermoelectric module (TEM) instead of conventional water pipes, as heat source. The TERP can realize more stable and easier system control as well as lower initial and operative cost. In this study, an improved system dynamic model was established by combining analytical system model and artificial neural networks (ANN) as well as the dynamic calculation functions of internal parameters of TEM. The double integral was used for the calculation of surface average temperature of TERP. The ANN model and system model were in good agreement with experiment data in both cooling and heating mode. In order to optimize the system design structure, parametric study was conducted in terms of the thickness of aluminum panel and insulation, as well as the arrangement of TEMs on the surface of radiant panel. It was found through simulation results that the optimum thickness of aluminum panel and insulation are respectively around 1–2 mm and 40–50 mm. In addition, TEMs should be uniformly installed on the surface of radiant panel and each TEM should stand at the central position of a square-shaped typical region with length around 0.387–0.548 m.

  4. Delayed feedback on the dynamical model of a financial system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Son, Woo-Sik, E-mail: dawnmail@sogang.ac.k [Department of Physics, Sogang University, Seoul 121-742 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Service Systems Management and Engineering, Sogang University, Seoul 121-742 (Korea, Republic of); Park, Young-Jai, E-mail: yjpark@sogang.ac.k [Department of Physics, Sogang University, Seoul 121-742 (Korea, Republic of); Department of Service Systems Management and Engineering, Sogang University, Seoul 121-742 (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-04-15

    Research highlights: Effect of delayed feedbacks on the financial model. Proof on the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation by local stability analysis. Numerical bifurcation analysis on delay differential equations. Observation of supercritical and subcritical Hopf, fold limit cycle, Neimark-Sacker, double Hopf and generalized Hopf bifurcations. - Abstract: We investigate the effect of delayed feedbacks on the financial model, which describes the time variation of the interest rate, the investment demand, and the price index, for establishing the fiscal policy. By local stability analysis, we theoretically prove the occurrences of Hopf bifurcation. Through numerical bifurcation analysis, we obtain the supercritical and subcritical Hopf bifurcation curves which support the theoretical predictions. Moreover, the fold limit cycle and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation curves are detected. We also confirm that the double Hopf and generalized Hopf codimension-2 bifurcation points exist.

  5. Dynamic modelling of micropollutants in the integrated urban wastewater system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lindblom, Erik Ulfson

    strategier på oplands skala. En usikkerheds-baseret model kalibre¬rings¬metode er endvidere udviklet og anvendt i sammenhæng med en intensiv målekam¬pagne fra et separat kloakopland til at påvise, at totalafstrømningen af tungmetallerne zink, kobber, bly og cadmium kan estimeres med en usikkerhed på 20...

  6. System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tao Zaipu; Li Mingyu

    2007-01-01

    American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology. This paper proposes to use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly for the Chinese oil production. This model is demonstrated as being robust. We used three scenarios to estimate the Chinese oil peak: according to scenario 1 of this model, the Hubbert Peak for China's crude oil production appears to be in 2019 with a value of 199.5 million tonnes, which is about 1.1 times the 2005 output. Before the peak comes, Chinese oil output will grow by about 1-2% annually, after the peak, however, the output will fall. By 2040, the annual production of Chinese crude oil would be equivalent to the level of 1990. During the coming 20 years, the crude oil demand of China will probably grow at the rate of 2-3% annually, and the gap between domestic supply and total demand may be more than half of this demand

  7. A SYSTEM DYNAMICS-BASED CONFLICT RESOLUTION MODEL FOR RIVER WATER QUALITY MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Karamouz, M. Akhbari, A. Moridi, R. Kerachian

    2006-07-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics approach by simulating a bargaining process can be used for resolving conflict of interests in water quality management. This approach can be a powerful alternative for traditional approaches for conflict resolution, which often rely on classical game theory. Waste load allocation models for river water quality management determine the optimal monthly waste load allocation to each point load. Most of these approaches are based on the multi-objective optimization models and do not consider the existing conflicts. In this study, a system dynamics-based conflict resolution model is presented for monthly waste load allocation in river systems. In this model, the stakeholders and decision-makers negotiate with each other considering their relative authorities, aspirations and dissatisfactions. System dynamics approach is actually used for simulating the bargaining process among the players. The model incorporates the objectives and preferences of stakeholders and decision-makers of the system in the form of utility functions and could provide a final agreement among the players. To evaluate the spatial and temporal variation of the concentration of the water quality indicator in the system, a water quality simulation model is also linked to the conflict resolution model. In the proposed model, a pre-assigned utility is allocated to different water users and the results are evaluated using a simulation model. The allocated utilities are tested and adjusted in order to provide an agreement between the assumed utilities and the utilities assigned by the model. The proposed model is applied to the Karkheh River system located in the southwest of Iran. The results show that the model can effectively incorporate the preferences of the players in providing a final agreement and the runtime of the proposed model is much less than the classical conflict resolution models. It is also shown that the waste load allocation can significantly reduce

  8. Modeling US Adult Obesity Trends: A System Dynamics Model for Estimating Energy Imbalance Gap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahmandad, Hazhir; Huang, Terry T.-K.; Bures, Regina M.; Glass, Thomas A.

    2014-01-01

    Objectives. We present a system dynamics model that quantifies the energy imbalance gap responsible for the US adult obesity epidemic among gender and racial subpopulations. Methods. We divided the adult population into gender–race/ethnicity subpopulations and body mass index (BMI) classes. We defined transition rates between classes as a function of metabolic dynamics of individuals within each class. We estimated energy intake in each BMI class within the past 4 decades as a multiplication of the equilibrium energy intake of individuals in that class. Through calibration, we estimated the energy gap multiplier for each gender–race–BMI group by matching simulated BMI distributions for each subpopulation against national data with maximum likelihood estimation. Results. No subpopulation showed a negative or zero energy gap, suggesting that the obesity epidemic continues to worsen, albeit at a slower rate. In the past decade the epidemic has slowed for non-Hispanic Whites, is starting to slow for non-Hispanic Blacks, but continues to accelerate among Mexican Americans. Conclusions. The differential energy balance gap across subpopulations and over time suggests that interventions should be tailored to subpopulations’ needs. PMID:24832405

  9. Modelling temperature dynamics of a district heating system in Naestved, Denmark-A case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gabrielaitiene, Irina; Bohm, Benny; Sunden, Bengt

    2007-01-01

    Modelling the temperature dynamics of a district heating system is typically validated for a single pipe or a system with limited information about dynamic consumer behaviour. In the present work, time dependent consumer data from the Naestved district heating system was used to investigate the ability of modelling tools to represent the temperature profile distortion throughout an entire heating system network. The Naestved district heating subsystem was modelled by two approaches (the node method developed at the Technical University of Denmark and the software TERMIS), and these modelling results were compared with measured data. The results indicate that the discrepancies between the predicted and measured temperatures are pronounced for consumers located in pipelines at distant pipelines containing numerous bends and fittings. Additionally, it was found that representing the consumer behaviour on an annual average basis introduced a deviation between the predicted and the measured return temperatures at the heat source

  10. Nonlinear FOPDT Model Identification for the Superheat Dynamic in a Refrigeration System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Yang, Zhenyu; Sun, Zhen; Andersen, Casper

    2011-01-01

    An on-line nonlinear FOPDT system identification method is proposed and applied to model the superheat dynamic in a supermarket refrigeration system. The considered nonlinear FOPDT model is an extension of the standard FOPDT model by means that its parameters are time dependent. After...... the considered system is discretized, the nonlinear FOPDT identification problem is formulated as a Mixed Integer Non-Linear Programming problem, and then an identification algorithm is proposed by combining the Branch-and-Bound method and Least Square technique, in order to on-line identify these time......-dependent parameters. The proposed method is firstly tested through a number of numerical examples, and then applied to model the superheat dynamic in a supermarket refrigeration system based on experimental data. As shown in these studies, the proposed method is quite promising in terms of reasonable accuracy, large...

  11. A system dynamics evaluation model: implementation of health information exchange for public health reporting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merrill, Jacqueline A; Deegan, Michael; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Fredericks, Kimberly

    2013-06-01

    To evaluate the complex dynamics involved in implementing electronic health information exchange (HIE) for public health reporting at a state health department, and to identify policy implications to inform similar implementations. Qualitative data were collected over 8 months from seven experts at New York State Department of Health who implemented web services and protocols for querying, receipt, and validation of electronic data supplied by regional health information organizations. Extensive project documentation was also collected. During group meetings experts described the implementation process and created reference modes and causal diagrams that the evaluation team used to build a preliminary model. System dynamics modeling techniques were applied iteratively to build causal loop diagrams representing the implementation. The diagrams were validated iteratively by individual experts followed by group review online, and through confirmatory review of documents and artifacts. Three casual loop diagrams captured well-recognized system dynamics: Sliding Goals, Project Rework, and Maturity of Resources. The findings were associated with specific policies that address funding, leadership, ensuring expertise, planning for rework, communication, and timeline management. This evaluation illustrates the value of a qualitative approach to system dynamics modeling. As a tool for strategic thinking on complicated and intense processes, qualitative models can be produced with fewer resources than a full simulation, yet still provide insights that are timely and relevant. System dynamics techniques clarified endogenous and exogenous factors at play in a highly complex technology implementation, which may inform other states engaged in implementing HIE supported by federal Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) legislation.

  12. Discrete dynamical models

    CERN Document Server

    Salinelli, Ernesto

    2014-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to the analysis of discrete dynamical systems. The content is presented by an unitary approach that blends the perspective of mathematical modeling together with the ones of several discipline as Mathematical Analysis, Linear Algebra, Numerical Analysis, Systems Theory and Probability. After a preliminary discussion of several models, the main tools for the study of linear and non-linear scalar dynamical systems are presented, paying particular attention to the stability analysis. Linear difference equations are studied in detail and an elementary introduction of Z and Discrete Fourier Transform is presented. A whole chapter is devoted to the study of bifurcations and chaotic dynamics. One-step vector-valued dynamical systems are the subject of three chapters, where the reader can find the applications to positive systems, Markov chains, networks and search engines. The book is addressed mainly to students in Mathematics, Engineering, Physics, Chemistry, Biology and Economic...

  13. Fuzzy cognitive maps outmatch loop analysis in dynamic modeling of ecological systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alessandro Ferrarini

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Modeling natural systems is challenging due to their complexity in terms of variables, interactions, and dynamics. Much of this complexity is rooted in the existence of multiple ways through which acting variables affect each other. Besides the simple direct effects, numerous indirect effects emerge in ecological systems. Through an illustrative example, I exemplify here several advantages of fuzzy cognitive maps (FCM over loop analysis (LA in dynamic modeling of ecological systems. In addition to being able to incorporate information about the magnitude of variables interactions, FCM can make predictions about multiple simultaneous perturbations. Furthermore, FCM allow for the simulation of different magnitude of initial perturbations to the system. Last, FCM estimate the amount of variable increase/decrease, not just the likely direction of change. Hence, even if LA is still much more used than FCM in the scientific literature, FCM can be considered fitter than LA in modeling ecological systems.

  14. Dynamic Modelling of Compliant-Moored Submerged Systems with Applications to Marine Energy Converters

    OpenAIRE

    Nichol, Tyler; DuBuque, Geoff; Fabien, Brian

    2014-01-01

    This paper presents a full‐range‐of‐motion numerical model of the dynamic characteristics of compliant‐moored submerged systems in unsteady fluid flow using a first‐principles approach. The program, implemented using the MATLAB software package, is in development with the primary intention of being applicable to in‐stream hydrokinetic turbines, though many wave energy converter and offshore wind turbine platform systems will also be capable of being modeled. A Lagrangian frame of reference is...

  15. Dynamic modeling and analysis of gyroscopic multibody systems and flexible robots

    OpenAIRE

    Rios, Oscar

    2017-01-01

    The dissertation presents dynamic modeling and analysis of single rigid bodies, gyroscopic multi-body systems, and flexible robotics through the use of the moving frame method. Before analyzing the projects at hand, a brief introduction to the moving frame method will be presented. To properly model the gyroscopic systems and flexible robots, it is first necessary to establish the kinematical description of freely rotating bodies. To demonstrate the validity and efficacy of the method, it is ...

  16. Dynamic model of the vergence eye movement system: simulations using MATLAB/SIMULINK.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hung, G K

    1998-01-01

    A dynamic model of the vergence eye movement system was developed and simulated using MATLAB/SIMULINK. The model was based on a dual-mode dynamic model previously written in FORTRAN. It consisted of a fast open-loop component and a slow closed-loop component. The new model contained several important modifications. For example, in the fast component, a zero-order hold element replaced the sampler and the target trajectory estimator in the earlier model to provide more stable and accurate responses. Also, a periodicity detector was added to automatically detect periodicity in the stimulus waveform. The stored periodic stimulus, with a reduction in latency, was used to drive the fast component output. Moreover, a connection representing the efference copy signal was added from the fast component output to the disparity input to provide an accurate estimate of the stimulus waveform. Further, Robinson's model of the extraocular muscles replaced the earlier 2nd-order plant to provide more realistic muscle dynamics. The entire model, containing the fast and slow components, was simulated using a variety of stimuli such as pulses, positive and negative ramps, square-wave, and sine-wave. The responses showed dynamic characteristics similar to experimental results. Thus, this new MATLAB/SIMULINK program provides a relatively easy-to-use, versatile, and powerful simulation environment for investigating the basic as well as clinical aspects of vergence dynamics. Moreover, the simulation program has general characteristics that can be modified to represent other oculomotor systems such as the versional and accommodation systems. This provides a framework for future investigation of dynamic interactions between oculomotor systems.

  17. Dynamic simulation of a circulating fluidized bed boiler system part I: Description of the dynamic system and transient behavior of sub-models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Seong Il; Choi, Sang Min; Yang, Jong In

    2016-01-01

    Dynamic performance simulation of a CFB boiler in a commercial-scale power plant is reported. The boiler system was modeled by a finite number of heat exchanger units, which are sub-grouped into the gas-solid circulation loop, the water-steam circulation loop, and the inter-connected heat exchangers blocks of the boiler. This dynamic model is an extension from the previously reported performance simulation model, which was designed to simulate static performance of the same power plant, where heat and mass for each of the heat exchanger units were balanced for the inter-connected heat exchanger network among the fuel combustion system and the water-steam system. Dynamic performance simulation was achieved by calculating the incremental difference from the previous time step, and progressing for the next time step. Additional discretization of the heat exchanger blocks was necessary to accommodate the dynamic response of the water evaporation and natural circulation as well as the transient response of the metal temperature of the heat exchanger elements. Presentation of the simulation modeling is organized into two parts; system configuration of the model plant and the general approach of the simulation are presented along with the transient behavior of the sub-models in Part I. Dynamic sub-models were integrated in terms of the mass flow and the heat transfer for simulating the CFB boiler system. Dynamic simulation for the open loop response was performed to check the integrated system of the water-steam loop and the solid-gas loop of the total boiler system. Simulation of the total boiler system which includes the closed-loop control system blocks is presented in the following Part II

  18. Two Monthly Continuous Dynamic Model Based on Nash Bargaining Theory for Conflict Resolution in Reservoir System.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mehran Homayounfar

    Full Text Available So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i having a discrete nature; and (ii working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance of the state variable (water level in the reservoir is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP, and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG. By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in

  19. Two Monthly Continuous Dynamic Model Based on Nash Bargaining Theory for Conflict Resolution in Reservoir System.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Homayounfar, Mehran; Zomorodian, Mehdi; Martinez, Christopher J; Lai, Sai Hin

    2015-01-01

    So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i) having a discrete nature; and (ii) working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance) of the state variable (water level in the reservoir) is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP), and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG). By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in water allocation

  20. Moving alcohol prevention research forward-Part II: new directions grounded in community-based system dynamics modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Apostolopoulos, Yorghos; Lemke, Michael K; Barry, Adam E; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller

    2018-02-01

    Given the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling; (2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research; and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. System dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational properties-stocks, flows and feedbacks-capture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches; in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. The process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques; (2) model formulation; (3) model calibration; (4) model testing and validation; and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. Community-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

  1. Fluctuation-Response Relation and modeling in systems with fast and slow dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Lacorata

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We show how a general formulation of the Fluctuation-Response Relation is able to describe in detail the connection between response properties to external perturbations and spontaneous fluctuations in systems with fast and slow variables. The method is tested by using the 360-variable Lorenz-96 model, where slow and fast variables are coupled to one another with reciprocal feedback, and a simplified low dimensional system. In the Fluctuation-Response context, the influence of the fast dynamics on the slow dynamics relies in a non trivial behavior of a suitable quadratic response function. This has important consequences for the modeling of the slow dynamics in terms of a Langevin equation: beyond a certain intrinsic time interval even the optimal model can give just statistical prediction.

  2. Optically levitated nanoparticle as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ricci, F; Rica, R A; Spasenović, M; Gieseler, J; Rondin, L; Novotny, L; Quidant, R

    2017-05-09

    Nano-mechanical resonators have gained an increasing importance in nanotechnology owing to their contributions to both fundamental and applied science. Yet, their small dimensions and mass raises some challenges as their dynamics gets dominated by nonlinearities that degrade their performance, for instance in sensing applications. Here, we report on the precise control of the nonlinear and stochastic bistable dynamics of a levitated nanoparticle in high vacuum. We demonstrate how it can lead to efficient signal amplification schemes, including stochastic resonance. This work contributes to showing the use of levitated nanoparticles as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics, with applications to a wide variety of fields.

  3. The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.

    2011-01-01

    The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

  4. A diagnostic expert system for a boiling water reactor using a dynamic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sonoda, Y.; Kanemoto, S.; Imaruoka, H.

    1990-01-01

    A diagnostic expert system for abnormal disturbances in a BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) plant has been developed. The peculiar feature of this system is a diagnostic method which combines artificial intelligence technique with numerical analysis technique. The system has three diagnostic functions, 1) identification of anomaly position (device or sensor), 2) identification of anomaly mode and 3) identification of anomaly cause. Function 1) is implemented as follows. First, a hypothesis about anomaly propagation paths is built up by qualitative reasoning, using knowledge of causal relations among observed signals. Next, the abnormal device or sensor is found by applying model reference method and fuzzy set theory to test the hypothesis, using knowledge of plant structure and function, heuristic strategy of diagnosis and module type dynamic simulator. This simulator is composed of basic transfer function modules. The simulation model for the testing region is built up automatically, according to the requirement from the diagnostic task. Function 2) means identification of dynamic characteristics for an anomaly. It is realized by tuning model parameters so as to reproduce the abnormal signal behavior using the non-linear programing method. Function 3) derives probable anomaly causes from heuristic rules between anomaly mode and cause. A basic plant dynamic model was built up and adjusted to dynamic characteristics for one BWR plant (1100MWe). In order to verify the diagnostic functions of this system, data for several abnormal events was compiled by modifying this model. The diagnostic functions were proved useful, through the simulated abnormal data

  5. Advanced High-Temperature Reactor Dynamic System Model Development: April 2012 Status

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Qualls, A L; Cetiner, M S; Wilson, Jr, T L

    2012-04-30

    The Advanced High-Temperature Reactor (AHTR) is a large-output fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR). An early-phase preconceptual design of a 1500 MW(e) power plant was developed in 2011 [Refs. 1 and 2]. An updated version of this plant is shown as Fig. 1. FHRs feature low-pressure liquid fluoride salt cooling, coated-particle fuel, a high-temperature power cycle, and fully passive decay heat rejection. The AHTR is designed to be a “walk away” reactor that requires no action to prevent large off-site releases following even severe reactor accidents. This report describes the development of dynamic system models used to further the AHTR design toward that goal. These models predict system response during warmup, startup, normal operation, and limited off-normal operating conditions. Severe accidents that include a loss-of-fluid inventory are not currently modeled. The scope of the models is limited to the plant power system, including the reactor, the primary and intermediate heat transport systems, the power conversion system, and safety-related or auxiliary heat removal systems. The primary coolant system, the intermediate heat transport system and the reactor building structure surrounding them are shown in Fig. 2. These systems are modeled in the most detail because the passive interaction of the primary system with the surrounding structure and heat removal systems, and ultimately the environment, protects the reactor fuel and the vessel from damage during severe reactor transients. The reactor silo also plays an important role during system warmup. The dynamic system modeling tools predict system performance and response. The goal is to accurately predict temperatures and pressures within the primary, intermediate, and power conversion systems and to study the impacts of design changes on those responses. The models are design tools and are not intended to be used in reactor qualification. The important details to capture in the primary

  6. Modeling Spring Mass System with System Dynamics Approach in Middle School Education

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nuhoglu, Hasret

    2008-01-01

    System Dynamics is a well formulated methodology for analyzing the components of a system including cause-effect relationships and their underlying mathematics and logic, time delays, and feedback loops. It began in the business and manufacturing world, but is now affecting education and many other disciplines. Having inspired by successful policy…

  7. Data-Driven Modeling of Complex Systems by means of a Dynamical ANN

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seleznev, A.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E.; Feigin, A.

    2017-12-01

    The data-driven methods for modeling and prognosis of complex dynamical systems become more and more popular in various fields due to growth of high-resolution data. We distinguish the two basic steps in such an approach: (i) determining the phase subspace of the system, or embedding, from available time series and (ii) constructing an evolution operator acting in this reduced subspace. In this work we suggest a novel approach combining these two steps by means of construction of an artificial neural network (ANN) with special topology. The proposed ANN-based model, on the one hand, projects the data onto a low-dimensional manifold, and, on the other hand, models a dynamical system on this manifold. Actually, this is a recurrent multilayer ANN which has internal dynamics and capable of generating time series. Very important point of the proposed methodology is the optimization of the model allowing us to avoid overfitting: we use Bayesian criterion to optimize the ANN structure and estimate both the degree of evolution operator nonlinearity and the complexity of nonlinear manifold which the data are projected on. The proposed modeling technique will be applied to the analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems: Lorenz'96 model of atmospheric turbulence, producing high-dimensional space-time chaos, and quasi-geostrophic three-layer model of the Earth's atmosphere with the natural orography, describing the dynamics of synoptical vortexes as well as mesoscale blocking systems. The possibility of application of the proposed methodology to analyze real measured data is also discussed. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant #16-12-10198).

  8. Modeling the dynamic response of pressures in a distributed helium refrigeration system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brubaker, John Carl [Illinois Inst. of Technology, Chicago, IL (United States)

    1997-12-01

    A mathematical model is created of the dynamic response of pressures caused by flow inputs to an existing distributed helium refrigeration system. The dynamic system studied consists of the suction and discharge pressure headers and compressor portions of the refrigeration system used to cool the superconducting magnets of the Tevatron accelerator at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The modeling method involves identifying the system from data recorded during a series of controlled tests, with effort made to detect locational differences in pressure response around the four mile accelerator circumference. A review of the fluid mechanics associated with the system indicates linear time invariant models are suitable for the identification, particularly since the governing equations of one dimensional fluid flow are approximated by linear differential equations. An outline of the experimental design and the data acquisition system are given, followed by a detailed description of the modeling, which utilized the Matlab programming language and associated System Identification Toolbox. Two representations of the system are presented. One, a black box model, provides a multi-input, multi-output description assembled from the results of single input step function testing. This description indicates definite variation in pressure response with distance from the flow input location, and also suggests subtle differences in response with the input location itself. A second system representation is proposed which details the relation between continuous flow changes and pressure response, and provides explanation of a previously unappreciated pressure feedback internal to the system.

  9. Modeling the dynamic response of pressures in a distributed helium refrigeration system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brubaker, J.C.

    1997-12-01

    A mathematical model is created of the dynamic response of pressures caused by flow inputs to an existing distributed helium refrigeration system. The dynamic system studied consists of the suction and discharge pressure headers and compressor portions of the refrigeration system used to cool the superconducting magnets of the Tevatron accelerator at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The modeling method involves identifying the system from data recorded during a series of controlled tests, with effort made to detect locational differences in pressure response around the four mile accelerator circumference. A review of the fluid mechanics associated with the system indicates linear time invariant models are suitable for the identification, particularly since the governing equations of one dimensional fluid flow are approximated by linear differential equations. An outline of the experimental design and the data acquisition system are given, followed by a detailed description of the modeling, which utilized the Matlab programming language and associated System Identification Toolbox. Two representations of the system are presented. One, a black box model, provides a multi-input, multi-output description assembled from the results of single input step function testing. This description indicates definite variation in pressure response with distance from the flow input location, and also suggests subtle differences in response with the input location itself. A second system representation is proposed which details the relation between continuous flow changes and pressure response, and provides explanation of a previously unappreciated pressure feedback internal to the system

  10. Modelling the impact of mining on socio-economic infrastructure development: a system dynamics approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maluleke, George

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The contribution of mining activities to social infrastructure and human development is a complex socio-economic development issue in South Africa. Complexity theory has introduced a new approach to solving problems in social systems, recognising them as complex systems. The socio-economic development system in South Africa falls into this category of complex systems. Analysing such a system requires that a number of feedback loops and details about the issues be analysed simultaneously. This level of complexity is above a human’s ability to comprehend without the aid of tools such as systems thinking and system dynamics. The causality between investment in infrastructure capacity and socio-economic development is dynamic. The relationship is influenced by exogenous feedback that, if not managed, is likely to reverse itself. This paper presents the results of a system dynamics modelling of the relationship, based on the principle of relative attractiveness developed in previous system dynamics research. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to determine the sensitivity of the system to changes in feedback. The paper concludes that the limits to growth in a socio-economic environment are determined by more factors than the availability of capital, and also include land capacity constraints and skills shortage.

  11. Experiment design through dynamical characterisation of non-linear systems biology models utilising sparse grids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donahue, M M; Buzzard, G T; Rundell, A E

    2010-07-01

    The sparse grid-based experiment design algorithm sequentially selects an experimental design point to discriminate between hypotheses for given experimental conditions. Sparse grids efficiently screen the global uncertain parameter space to identify acceptable parameter subspaces. Clustering the located acceptable parameter vectors by the similarity of the simulated model trajectories characterises the data-compatible model dynamics. The experiment design algorithm capitalizes on the diversity of the experimentally distinguishable system output dynamics to select the design point that best discerns between competing model-structure and parameter-encoded hypotheses. As opposed to designing the experiments to explicitly reduce uncertainty in the model parameters, this approach selects design points to differentiate between dynamical behaviours. This approach further differs from other experimental design methods in that it simultaneously addresses both parameter- and structural-based uncertainty that is applicable to some ill-posed problems where the number of uncertain parameters exceeds the amount of data, places very few requirements on the model type, available data and a priori parameter estimates, and is performed over the global uncertain parameter space. The experiment design algorithm is demonstrated on a mitogen-activated protein kinase cascade model. The results show that system dynamics are highly uncertain with limited experimental data. Nevertheless, the algorithm requires only three additional experimental data points to simultaneously discriminate between possible model structures and acceptable parameter values. This sparse grid-based experiment design process provides a systematic and computationally efficient exploration over the entire uncertain parameter space of potential model structures to resolve the uncertainty in the non-linear systems biology model dynamics.

  12. Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning: Machine-learning-based error model for surrogates of dynamical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.

    2017-01-01

    A machine learning–based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (eg, random forests, and LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed “error indicators” (ie, features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering) and subsequently constructs a “local” regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider 2 uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (eg, time-integrated errors). We then apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil-water subsurface flow simulations, with time-varying well-control (bottom-hole pressure) parameters. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization in conjunction with proper orthogonal decomposition. Moreover, when the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well

  13. Dynamic modeling and sensitivity analysis of solar thermal energy conversion systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, C. L.

    1977-01-01

    Since the energy input to solar thermal conversion systems is both time variant and probabilistic, it is unlikely that simple steady-state methods for estimating lifetime performance will provide satisfactory results. The work described here uses dynamic modeling to begin identifying what must be known about input radiation and system dynamic characteristics to estimate performance reliably. Daily operation of two conceptual solar energy systems was simulated under varying operating strategies with time-dependent radiation intensity ranging from smooth input of several magnitudes to input of constant total energy whose intensity oscillated with periods from 1/4 hour to 6 hours. Integrated daily system output and efficiency were functions of both level and dynamic characteristics of insolation. Sensitivity of output to changes in total input was greater than one.

  14. A system dynamic model to estimate hydrological processes and water use in a eucalypt plantation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying Ouyang; Daping Xu; Ted Leininger; Ningnan Zhang

    2016-01-01

    Eucalypts have been identified as one of the best feedstocks for bioenergy production due to theirfast-growth rate and coppicing ability. However, their water use efficiency along with the adverse envi-ronmental impacts is still a controversial issue. In this study, a system dynamic model was developed toestimate the hydrological processes and water use in a eucalyptus...

  15. Research Summary 3-D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model Of The Human Respiratory System

    Science.gov (United States)

    The U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development (ORD) has developed a 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the human respiratory system that allows for the simulation of particulate based contaminant deposition and clearance, while being adaptable for age, ethn...

  16. The Interactions between Problem Solving and Conceptual Change: System Dynamic Modelling as a Platform for Learning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Chwee Beng

    2010-01-01

    This study examines the interactions between problem solving and conceptual change in an elementary science class where students build system dynamic models as a form of problem representations. Through mostly qualitative findings, we illustrate the interplay of three emerging intervening conditions (epistemological belief, structural knowledge…

  17. Dynamics of biofilm formation in a model drinking water distribution system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Boe-Hansen, Rasmus; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Arvin, Erik

    2002-01-01

    The dynamics of biofilm formation in non-chlorinated groundwater-based drinking water was studied in a model distribution system. The formation of biofilm was closely monitored for a period of 522 days by total bacterial counts (AODC), heterotrophic plate counts (R2A media), and ATP content...

  18. Cross Coursing in Mathematics: Physical Modelling in Differential Equations Crossing to Discrete Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winkel, Brian

    2012-01-01

    We give an example of cross coursing in which a subject or approach in one course in undergraduate mathematics is used in a completely different course. This situation crosses falling body modelling in an upper level differential equations course into a modest discrete dynamical systems unit of a first-year mathematics course. (Contains 1 figure.)

  19. Modelling the impact of interventions on the dynamics in village poultry systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Udo, H.M.J.; Asgedom, A.H.; Viets, T.C.

    2006-01-01

    There are many technical possibilities to improve free-range and backyard poultry keeping. Rural households, however, are not adopting these technologies widely. This paper presents a model approach for ex ante evaluation of interventions in village poultry systems. The dynamic deterministic

  20. Experimental validation of a dynamic waste heat recovery system model for control purposes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Feru, E.; Kupper, F.; Rojer, C.; Seykens, X.L.J.; Scappin, F.; Willems, F.P.T.; Smits, J.; Jager, B. de; Steinbuch, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the identification and validation of a dynamic Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) system model. Driven by upcoming CO2 emission targets and increasing fuel costs, engine exhaust gas heat utilization has recently attracted much attention to improve fuel efficiency, especially for

  1. A role for low-order system dynamics models in urban health policy making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, Barry; Siri, José

    2016-10-01

    Cities are complex adaptive systems whose responses to policy initiatives emerge from feedback interactions between their parts. Urban policy makers must routinely deal with both detail and dynamic complexity, coupled with high levels of diversity, uncertainty and contingency. In such circumstances, it is difficult to generate reliable predictions of health-policy outcomes. In this paper we explore the potential for low-order system dynamics (LOSD) models to make a contribution towards meeting this challenge. By definition, LOSD models have few state variables (≤5), illustrate the non-linear effects caused by feedback and accumulation, and focus on endogenous dynamics generated within well-defined boundaries. We suggest that experience with LOSD models can help practitioners to develop an understanding of basic principles of system dynamics, giving them the ability to 'see with new eyes'. Because efforts to build a set of LOSD models can help a transdisciplinary group to develop a shared, coherent view of the problems that they seek to tackle, such models can also become the foundations of 'powerful ideas'. Powerful ideas are conceptual metaphors that provide the members of a policy-making group with the a priori shared context required for effective communication, the co-production of knowledge, and the collaborative development of effective public health policies. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Implementation of an object-oriented dynamic modeling library for absorption refrigeration systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fu, D.G.; Lu, Z. [Institute of Refrigeration and Cryogenics, School of Mechanical and Power Engineering, Shanghai Jiao Tong University, No. 1954, Hua Shan Road, Shanghai 200030 (China); Poncia, G. [United Technologies Research Center, East Hartford, CT 06108 (United States)

    2006-02-01

    The integration of absorption refrigeration equipment into Cooling, Heating and Power systems must guarantee economic viability, operability and reliability. Accurate control design is mandatory to fulfill such requirements, and make system design successful. The use of model-based control techniques and the introduction of controls testing via numerical simulation rely on the availability of accurate, robust and flexible dynamic models. In this paper, a model library of absorption systems with different working mediums and cycle configurations is presented. Library flexibility and extensibility is achieved through the adoption of object-oriented modeling techniques, allowing considerable reduction of the development time through model reuse. The library has been used to simulate the transient behavior, including startup and shutdown, of several systems. Validation against experimental data has proven the accuracy of modeling assumption. (author)

  3. Learning How to Construct Models of Dynamic Systems: An Initial Evaluation of the Dragoon Intelligent Tutoring System

    Science.gov (United States)

    VanLehn, Kurt; Wetzel, Jon; Grover, Sachin; van de Sande, Brett

    2017-01-01

    Constructing models of dynamic systems is an important skill in both mathematics and science instruction. However, it has proved difficult to teach. Dragoon is an intelligent tutoring system intended to quickly and effectively teach this important skill. This paper describes Dragoon and an evaluation of it. The evaluation randomly assigned…

  4. Quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms on graphene. I. System-bath modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonfanti, Matteo; Jackson, Bret; Hughes, Keith H; Burghardt, Irene; Martinazzo, Rocco

    2015-09-28

    An accurate system-bath model to investigate the quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms chemisorbed on graphene is presented. The system comprises a hydrogen atom and the carbon atom from graphene that forms the covalent bond, and it is described by a previously developed 4D potential energy surface based on density functional theory ab initio data. The bath describes the rest of the carbon lattice and is obtained from an empirical force field through inversion of a classical equilibrium correlation function describing the hydrogen motion. By construction, model building easily accommodates improvements coming from the use of higher level electronic structure theory for the system. Further, it is well suited to a determination of the system-environment coupling by means of ab initio molecular dynamics. This paper details the system-bath modeling and shows its application to the quantum dynamics of vibrational relaxation of a chemisorbed hydrogen atom, which is here investigated at T = 0 K with the help of the multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree method. Paper II deals with the sticking dynamics.

  5. Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kooi, B W

    2015-12-01

    We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.

  6. Embedding complex hydrology in the regional climate systemDynamic coupling across different modelling domains

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Butts, Michael; Drews, Martin; Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl

    2014-01-01

    To improve our understanding of the impacts of feedback between the atmosphere and the terrestrial water cycle including groundwater and to improve the integration of water resource management modelling for climate adaption we have developed a dynamically coupled climate–hydrological modelling...... system. The OpenMI modelling interface is used to couple a comprehensive hydrological modelling system, MIKE SHE running on personal computers, and a regional climate modelling system, HIRHAM running on a high performance computing platform. The coupled model enables two-way interaction between...... the atmosphere and the groundwater via the land surface and can represent the lateral movement of water in both the surface and subsurface and their interactions, not normally accounted for in climate models. Meso-scale processes are important for climate in general and rainfall in particular. Hydrological...

  7. Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafiei, Sima; Daneshvaran, Arman; Abdollahzade, Sina

    2018-01-01

    Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long-term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model-incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time. It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region. Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

  8. Methodologies for Verification and Validation of Space Launch System (SLS) Structural Dynamic Models: Appendices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppolino, Robert N.

    2018-01-01

    Verification and validation (V&V) is a highly challenging undertaking for SLS structural dynamics models due to the magnitude and complexity of SLS subassemblies and subassemblies. Responses to challenges associated with V&V of Space Launch System (SLS) structural dynamics models are presented in Volume I of this paper. Four methodologies addressing specific requirements for V&V are discussed. (1) Residual Mode Augmentation (RMA). (2) Modified Guyan Reduction (MGR) and Harmonic Reduction (HR, introduced in 1976). (3) Mode Consolidation (MC). Finally, (4) Experimental Mode Verification (EMV). This document contains the appendices to Volume I.

  9. Machine Learning-based discovery of closures for reduced models of dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Shaowu; Duraisamy, Karthik

    2017-11-01

    Despite the successful application of machine learning (ML) in fields such as image processing and speech recognition, only a few attempts has been made toward employing ML to represent the dynamics of complex physical systems. Previous attempts mostly focus on parameter calibration or data-driven augmentation of existing models. In this work we present a ML framework to discover closure terms in reduced models of dynamical systems and provide insights into potential problems associated with data-driven modeling. Based on exact closure models for linear system, we propose a general linear closure framework from viewpoint of optimization. The framework is based on trapezoidal approximation of convolution term. Hyperparameters that need to be determined include temporal length of memory effect, number of sampling points, and dimensions of hidden states. To circumvent the explicit specification of memory effect, a general framework inspired from neural networks is also proposed. We conduct both a priori and posteriori evaluations of the resulting model on a number of non-linear dynamical systems. This work was supported in part by AFOSR under the project ``LES Modeling of Non-local effects using Statistical Coarse-graining'' with Dr. Jean-Luc Cambier as the technical monitor.

  10. Formal verification of dynamic hybrid systems: a NuSMV-based model checking approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xu Zhi

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Software security is an important and challenging research topic in developing dynamic hybrid embedded software systems. Ensuring the correct behavior of these systems is particularly difficult due to the interactions between the continuous subsystem and the discrete subsystem. Currently available security analysis methods for system risks have been limited, as they rely on manual inspections of the individual subsystems under simplifying assumptions. To improve this situation, a new approach is proposed that is based on the symbolic model checking tool NuSMV. A dual PID system is used as an example system, for which the logical part and the computational part of the system are modeled in a unified manner. Constraints are constructed on the controlled object, and a counter-example path is ultimately generated, indicating that the hybrid system can be analyzed by the model checking tool.

  11. The Modeling and Complexity of Dynamical Systems by Means of Computation and Information Theories

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Logozar

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available We present the modeling of dynamical systems and finding of their complexity indicators by the use of concepts from computation and information theories, within the framework of J. P. Crutchfield's theory of  ε-machines. A short formal outline of the  ε-machines is given. In this approach, dynamical systems are analyzed directly from the time series that is received from a properly adjusted measuring instrument. The binary strings are parsed through the parse tree, within which morphologically and probabilistically unique subtrees or morphs are recognized as system states. The outline and precise interrelation of the information-theoretic entropies and complexities emanating from the model is given. The paper serves also as a theoretical foundation for the future presentation of the DSA program that implements the  ε-machines modeling up to the stochastic finite automata level.

  12. An energy security management model using quality function deployment and system dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shin, Juneseuk; Shin, Wan-Seon; Lee, Changyong

    2013-01-01

    An energy security management model using quality function deployment (QFD) and system dynamics (SD) is suggested for application in public policymaking in developing economies. Through QFD, experts are guided toward identifying key energy security components, including indicators and policies, and in making these components consistent, focused, and customized for a particular country. Using these components as inputs, we construct an intermediate complex system dynamics model with a minimal number of crucial interactions. Key policies are simulated and evaluated in terms of the improvement of key indicators. Even with little data, our approach provides a coherent, useful, and customized energy security management model to help policymakers more effectively manage national energy security. To demonstrate its advantages, the model is applied to the Korean gas sector as an example. - Highlights: ► We suggest an energy security management model for developing economies. ► We identify a consistent set of key components, indicators and policies by using QFD. ► A coherent and practical system dynamics model based on QFD's output is constructed. ► The model is applied to the Korean gas sector as an example

  13. Simulink library project for modeling and simulation of dynamic phenomena in rotating power transmission systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz MATYJA

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the concept and an example of usage of Simulink blocks library with which dynamic simulation of complex systems with rotating shafts, rigid rotors, bearings and couplings, general rotating power transmission systems of any configuration can be performed. The assumption is that library is modular and expandable. The main part of the library currently being developed is rigid rotor model with 6 degrees of freedom of the static and dynamic imbalance. Other components are: block modeling the bearing with mounting stiffness, damping and inertia; linear elastic-damping element and rigid beam finite element (RFEM. Also in preparation are: block modeling shaft with Timoshenko beam elements and Rayleigh damping, block modeling clutch.

  14. Dynamic model for the control system simulation and design of a 200 MW nuclear heating reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Yuai; Liu Longzhi; Ma Changwen

    1999-01-01

    The author develops a nonlinear dynamic model used in a wide range control system simulation for a 200 MW Nuclear Heating Reactor (NHR-200). Besides a one-point neutron kinetics equation and temperature feedback based on the lumped fuel and coolant temperature, which are the usual methods used in modeling of PWR, two other factors are also considered in order to suit the wide range operation. The first consideration is the natural circulation in the primary loop because it affects the heat transfer coefficients in the core and in the primary heat exchanger (PHE). The second consideration is the flow rate variation in the secondary loop which leads to some nonlinear properties. The simulation results show that the model is accurate enough for control system simulation. Some model reduction basis can be obtained through the dynamic analysis

  15. Modeling Networks and Dynamics in Complex Systems: from Nano-Composites to Opinion Formation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Feng

    Complex networks are ubiquitous in systems of physical, biological, social or technological origin. Components in those systems range from as large as cities in power grids, to as small as molecules in metabolic networks. Since the dawn of network science, significant attention has focused on the implications of dynamics in establishing network structure and the impact of structural properties on dynamics on those networks. The first part of the thesis follows this direction, studying the network formed by conductive nanorods in nano-materials, and focuses on the electrical response of the composite to the structure change of the network. New scaling laws for the shear-induced anisotropic percolation are introduced and a robust exponential tail of the current distribution across the network is identified. These results are relevant especially to "active" composite materials where materials are exposed to mechanical loading and strain deformations. However, in many real-world networks the evolution of the network topology is tied to the states of the vertices and vice versa. Networks that exhibit such a feedback are called adaptive or coevolutionary networks. The second part of the thesis examines two closely related variants of a simple, abstract model for coevolution of a network and the opinions of its members. As a representative model for adaptive networks, it displays the feature of self-organization of the system into a stable configuration due to the interplay between the network topology and the dynamics on the network. This simple model yields interesting dynamics and the slight change in the rewiring strategy results in qualitatively different behaviors of the system. In conclusion, the dissertation aims to develop new network models and tools which enable insights into the structure and dynamics of various systems, and seeks to advance network algorithms which provide approaches to coherently articulated questions in real-world complex systems such as

  16. Development of a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of municipal watermain networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rehan, R; Knight, M A; Unger, A J A; Haas, C T

    2013-12-15

    This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of urban water distribution networks. The developed causal loop diagrams are a novel contribution in that it illustrates the unique characteristics and feedback loops for financially self-sustaining water distribution networks. The system dynamics model is a mathematical realization of the developed interactions among system variables over time and is comprised of three sectors namely watermains network, consumer, and finance. This is the first known development of a water distribution network system dynamics model. The watermains network sector accounts for the unique characteristics of watermain pipes such as service life, deterioration progression, pipe breaks, and water leakage. The finance sector allows for cash reserving by the utility in addition to the pay-as-you-go and borrowing strategies. The consumer sector includes controls to model water fee growth as a function of service performance and a household's financial burden due to water fees. A series of policy levers are provided that allow the impact of various financing strategies to be evaluated in terms of financial sustainability and household affordability. The model also allows for examination of the impact of different management strategies on the water fee in terms of consistency and stability over time. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the developed system dynamics water model can be used by water utilities to achieve a variety of utility short and long-term objectives and to establish realistic and defensible water utility policies. It also discusses how the model can be used by regulatory bodies, government agencies, the financial industry, and researchers. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Dynamic Task Distribution Model for On-Chip Reconfigurable High Speed Computing System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahendra Vucha

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modern embedded systems are being modeled as Reconfigurable High Speed Computing System (RHSCS where Reconfigurable Hardware, that is, Field Programmable Gate Array (FPGA, and softcore processors configured on FPGA act as computing elements. As system complexity increases, efficient task distribution methodologies are essential to obtain high performance. A dynamic task distribution methodology based on Minimum Laxity First (MLF policy (DTD-MLF distributes the tasks of an application dynamically onto RHSCS and utilizes available RHSCS resources effectively. The DTD-MLF methodology takes the advantage of runtime design parameters of an application represented as DAG and considers the attributes of tasks in DAG and computing resources to distribute the tasks of an application onto RHSCS. In this paper, we have described the DTD-MLF model and verified its effectiveness by distributing some of real life benchmark applications onto RHSCS configured on Virtex-5 FPGA device. Some benchmark applications are represented as DAG and are distributed to the resources of RHSCS based on DTD-MLF model. The performance of the MLF based dynamic task distribution methodology is compared with static task distribution methodology. The comparison shows that the dynamic task distribution model with MLF criteria outperforms the static task distribution techniques in terms of schedule length and effective utilization of available RHSCS resources.

  18. Development of a system dynamics model based on Six Sigma methodology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Jovani Cardiel Ortega

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic model to analyze the complexity associated with the manufacturing systems and to improve the performance of the process through the Six Sigma philosophy is proposed. The research focuses on the implementation of the system dynamics tool to comply with each of the phases of the DMAIC methodology. In the first phase, define, the problem is articulated, collecting data, selecting the variables, and representing them in a mental map that helps build the dynamic hypothesis. In the second phase, measure, model is formulated, equations are developed, and Forrester diagram is developed to carry out the simulation. In the third phase, analyze, the simulation results are studied. For the fourth phase, improving, the model is validated through a sensitivity analysis. Finally, in control phase, operation policies are proposed. This paper presents the development of a dynamic model of the system of knitted textile production knitted developed; the implementation was done in a textile company in southern Guanajuato. The results show an improvement in the process performance by increasing the level of sigma allowing the validation of the proposed approach.

  19. Stochastic modeling and simulation of reaction-diffusion system with Hill function dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Minghan; Li, Fei; Wang, Shuo; Cao, Young

    2017-03-14

    Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems presents great challenges for spatiotemporal biological modeling and simulation. One widely used framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems is reaction diffusion master equation (RDME). Previous studies have discovered that for the RDME, when discretization size approaches zero, reaction time for bimolecular reactions in high dimensional domains tends to infinity. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the 1D domain, highly nonlinear reaction dynamics given by Hill function may also have dramatic change when discretization size is smaller than a critical value. Moreover, we discuss methods to avoid this problem: smoothing over space, fixed length smoothing over space and a hybrid method. Our analysis reveals that the switch-like Hill dynamics reduces to a linear function of discretization size when the discretization size is small enough. The three proposed methods could correctly (under certain precision) simulate Hill function dynamics in the microscopic RDME system.

  20. A system dynamics model for tritium cycle of pulsed fusion reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhu, Zuolong; Nie, Baojie; Chen, Dehong

    2017-01-01

    As great challenges and uncertainty exist in achieving steady plasma burning, pulsed plasma burning may be a potential scenario for fusion engineering test reactor, even for fusion DEMOnstration reactor. In order to analyze dynamic tritium inventory and tritium self-sufficiency for pulsed fusion systems, a system dynamics model of tritium cycle was developed on the basis of earlier version of Tritium Analysis program for fusion System (TAS). The model was verified with TRIMO, which was developed by KIT in Germany. Tritium self-sufficiency and dynamic tritium inventory assessment were performed for a typical fusion engineering test reactor. The verification results show that the system dynamics model can be used for tritium cycle analysis of pulsed fusion reactor with sufficient reliability. The assessment results of tritium self-sufficiency indicate that the fusion reactor might only need several hundred gram tritium to startup if achieved high efficient tritium handling ability (Referred ITER: 1 h). And the initial tritium startup inventory in pulsed fusion reactor is determined by the combined influence of pulse length, burn availability, and tritium recycle time. Meanwhile, tritium self-sufficiency can be achieved under the defined condition.

  1. Dynamical systems modeling of low-frequency variability in low-order atmospheric models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Broer, H.W.; Vitolo, R.

    2008-01-01

    The understanding of atmospheric and oceanic low-frequency variability is an old problem having both theoretical interest and practical importance, e.g., for the assessment of climate change. In this paper possible relations with dynamical systems theory are given, in particular through bifurcation

  2. Dynamic Model of Kaplan Turbine Regulating System Suitable for Power System Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jie Zhao

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Accurate modeling of Kaplan turbine regulating system is of great significance for grid security and stability analysis. In this paper, Kaplan turbine regulating system model is divided into the governor system model, the blade control system model, and the turbine and water diversion system model. The Kaplan turbine has its particularity, and the on-cam relationship between the wicket gate opening and the runner blade angle under a certain water head on the whole range was obtained by high-order curve fitting method. Progressively the linearized Kaplan turbine model, improved ideal Kaplan turbine model, and nonlinear Kaplan turbine model were developed. The nonlinear Kaplan turbine model considered the correction function of the blade angle on the turbine power, thereby improving the model simulation accuracy. The model parameters were calculated or obtained by the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm. For the blade control system model, the default blade servomotor time constant given by value of one simplified the modeling and experimental work. Further studies combined with measured test data verified the established model accuracy and laid a foundation for further research into the influence of Kaplan turbine connecting to the grid.

  3. Modular Approach of Dynamic Modeling of Type - 3 Wind Energy Conversion Systems

    OpenAIRE

    Rani M, Deepthi; Kumar M, Satyendra

    2017-01-01

    Modular approach towards type 3 Wind Energy Conversion System (WECS) is presented in this paper. This consists of design, dynamic modeling, simulation and stability analysis of wind power system which includes Wind Turbine (WT), Doubly Fed Induction Generator (DFIG) and advanced AC/DC/AC power converters. The dq reference frame is used to obtain the equivalent circuit of the DFIG. MATLAB Simulink has been used as the tool to evaluate the stability analysis of the WECS. It is proved that the...

  4. Development of regional atmospheric dynamic and air pollution models for nuclear emergency response system WSPEEDI

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Furuno, Akiko; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Lee, Soon-Hwan; Tsujita, Yuichi; Takemiya, Hiroshi; Chino, Masamichi

    2000-01-01

    WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is a computer-based emergency response system to predict long-range atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere due to a nuclear accident. WSPEEDI has been applied to several international exercises and real events. Through such experiences, the new version of WSPEEDI aims to employ a combination of an atmospheric dynamic model and a particle random walk model for more accurate predictions. This paper describes these models, improvement of prediction and computational techniques for quick responses. (author)

  5. Applying a System Dynamics Approach for Modeling Groundwater Dynamics to Depletion under Different Economical and Climate Change Scenarios

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hamid Balali

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.

  6. Design and experiments with scale model of a ship with dynamic positioning system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Souza, Carlos Eduardo S.; Morishita, Helio M.; Moratelli Junior, Lazaro; Lago, Glenan A.; Tannuri, Eduardo A. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)

    2008-07-01

    Dynamic Positioning Systems (DPS) are used to keep a floating vessel on a specific position or follow pre-defined path through the action of controlled propellers. This paper describes a facility used to experimentally analyze DPS and to validate a numerical simulator. It is composed by a scale model of a DP tanker with 3 thrusters, a measurement system based on computational vision and a control software with the same DP algorithms used in industrial systems. Simple wind and current generators were also implemented. This work shows preliminary results of experiments, which has been useful to calibrate the simulator and to validate the mathematical model. (author)

  7. Modelling household responses to energy efficiency interventions via system dynamics and survey data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Davis

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available An application of building a system dynamics model of the way households might respond to interventions aimed at reducing energy consumption (specifically the use of electricity is described in this paper. A literature review of past research is used to build an initial integrated model of household consumption, and this model is used to generate a small number of research hypotheses about how households possessing different characteristics might react to various types of interventions. These hypotheses are tested using data gathered from an efficiency intervention conducted in a town in the South African Western Cape in which households were able to exchange regular light bulbs for more efficient compact fluorescent lamp light bulbs. Our experiences are (a that a system dynamics approach proved useful in advancing a non-traditional point of view for which, for historical and economic reasons, data were not abundantly available; (b that, in areas where traditional models are heavily quantitative, some scepticism to a system dynamics model may be expected; and (c that a statistical comparison of model results by means of empirical data may be an effective tool in reducing such scepticism.

  8. System dynamics approach for modeling of sugar beet yield considering the effects of climatic variables.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervin, Lia; Islam, Md Saiful

    2015-02-01

    The aim of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for computation of yields and to investigate the dependency of yields on some major climatic parameters, i.e. temperature and rainfall, for Beta vulgaris subsp. (sugar beet crops) under future climate change scenarios. A system dynamics model was developed which takes account of the effects of rainfall and temperature on sugar beet yields under limited irrigation conditions. A relationship was also developed between the seasonal evapotranspiration and seasonal growing degree days for sugar beet crops. The proposed model was set to run for the present time period of 1993-2012 and for the future period 2013-2040 for Lethbridge region (Alberta, Canada). The model provides sugar beet yields on a yearly basis which are comparable to the present field data. It was found that the future average yield will be increased at about 14% with respect to the present average yield. The proposed model can help to improve the understanding of soil water conditions and irrigation water requirements of an area under certain climatic conditions and can be used for future prediction of yields for any crops in any region (with the required information to be provided). The developed system dynamics model can be used as a supporting tool for decision making, for improvement of agricultural management practice of any region. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.

  9. Modeling the nexus across water supply, power generation and environment systems using the system dynamics approach: Hehuang Region, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Maoyuan; Liu, Pan; Li, Zejun; Zhang, Jingwen; Liu, Dedi; Xiong, Lihua

    2016-12-01

    Nexus approaches address the complex interconnections across coupled systems, providing a new and effective way to identify the dynamics of coevolution process. The connections across water supply, power generation and environment (WPE) systems are increasingly tight and thus can be profiled as a WPE nexus. This paper aims to model the WPE nexus in the China's Hehuang Region by using the system dynamics approach. Six nonlinear ordinary differential equations of storage, water supply, power generation, population, biomass, and environmental awareness are formulated to dominate the coevolution process. Their constitutive relations are then obtained from observed data to complete the WPE nexus model. The results show that the system dynamics approach is competent in modeling the WPE nexus of the Hehuang Region. The coevolution process is divided into four cyclic stages (i.e., exploitation, deterioration, depression and recovery stages) and terminates with a stationary cycling after thousands of years. The dynamics of state variables are explicitly interpreted to show how different driving variables affect the variations of system states. The observations obtained by modeling the nexus are insightful, improving the understanding of interactions across coupled systems.

  10. Dynamic modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems for off-grid applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hasemeyer, Mark David

    The volatile prices of fossil fuels and their contribution to global warming have caused many people to turn to renewable energy systems. Many developing communities are forced to use these systems as they are too far from electrical distribution. As a result, numerous software models have been developed to simulate hybrid renewable energy systems. However almost, if not all, implementations are static in design. A static design limits the ability of the model to account for changes over time. Dynamic modeling can be used to fill the gaps where other modeling techniques fall short. This modeling practice allows the user to account for the effects of technological and economic factors over time. These factors can include changes in energy demand, energy production, and income level. Dynamic modeling can be particularly useful for developing communities who are off-grid and developing at rapid rates. In this study, a dynamic model was used to evaluate a real world system. A non-governmental organization interested in improving their current infrastructure was selected. Five different scenarios were analyzed and compared in order to discover which factors the model is most sensitive to. In four of the scenarios, a new energy system was purchased in order to account for the opening of a restaurant that would be used as a source of local income generation. These scenarios were then compared to a base case in which a new system was not purchased, and the restaurant was not opened. Finally, the results were used to determine which variables had the greatest impact on the various outputs of the simulation.

  11. COPEWELL: A Conceptual Framework and System Dynamics Model for Predicting Community Functioning and Resilience After Disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Links, Jonathan M; Schwartz, Brian S; Lin, Sen; Kanarek, Norma; Mitrani-Reiser, Judith; Sell, Tara Kirk; Watson, Crystal R; Ward, Doug; Slemp, Cathy; Burhans, Robert; Gill, Kimberly; Igusa, Tak; Zhao, Xilei; Aguirre, Benigno; Trainor, Joseph; Nigg, Joanne; Inglesby, Thomas; Carbone, Eric; Kendra, James M

    2018-02-01

    Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster. We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties. The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature. The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:127-137).

  12. Development of Matlab Simulink model for dynamics analysis of passive suspension system for lightweight vehicle

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamali, M. S.; Ismail, K. A.; Taha, Z.; Aiman, M. F.

    2017-10-01

    In designing suitable isolators to reduce unwanted vibration in vehicles, the response from a mathematical model which characterizes the transmissibility ratio of the input and output of the vehicle is required. In this study, a Matlab Simulink model is developed to study the dynamic behaviour performance of passive suspension system for a lightweight electric vehicle. The Simulink model is based on the two degrees of freedom system quarter car model. The model is compared to the theoretical plots of the transmissibility ratios between the amplitudes of the displacements and accelerations of the sprung and unsprung masses to the amplitudes of the ground, against the frequencies at different damping values. It was found that the frequency responses obtained from the theoretical calculations and from the Simulink simulation is comparable to each other. Hence, the model may be extended to a full vehicle model.

  13. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.C.; Jauch, C.; Soerensen, P.; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2003-12-01

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. However, the main attention in this report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of two wind turbine concepts: 1. Active stall wind turbine with induction generator 2. Variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator. These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. For both these two concepts, control strategies are developed and implemented, their performance assessed and discussed by means of simulations. (au)

  14. Dynamic modeling and simulation of EBR-II steam generator system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berkan, R.C.; Upadhyaya, B.R.

    1989-01-01

    This paper presents a low order dynamic model of the Experimental breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) steam generator system. The model development includes the application of energy, mass and momentum balance equations in state-space form. The model also includes a three-element controller for the drum water level control problem. The simulation results for low-level perturbations exhibit the inherently stable characteristics of the steam generator. The predictions of test transients also verify the consistency of this low order model

  15. Logic-based hierarchies for modeling behavior of complex dynamic systems with applications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hu, Y.S.; Modarres, M.

    2000-01-01

    Most complex systems are best represented in the form of a hierarchy. The Goal Tree Success Tree and Master Logic Diagram (GTST-MLD) are proven powerful hierarchic methods to represent complex snap-shot of plant knowledge. To represent dynamic behaviors of complex systems, fuzzy logic is applied to replace binary logic to extend the power of GTST-MLD. Such a fuzzy-logic-based hierarchy is called Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD). This chapter discusses comparison of the use of GTST-DMLD when applied as a modeling tool for systems whose relationships are modeled by either physical, binary logical or fuzzy logical relationships. This is shown by applying GTST-DMLD to the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) phenomenon at pressurized water reactors which is an important safety issue being addressed by the nuclear industry. (orig.)

  16. Strategies for Reduced-Order Models in Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Turbulent Dynamical Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qi, Di

    Turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge where the goal is to obtain statistical estimates for key physical quantities. In the development of a proper UQ scheme for systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities, significant model errors compared with the true natural signal are always unavoidable due to both the imperfect understanding of the underlying physical processes and the limited computational resources available. One central issue in contemporary research is the development of a systematic methodology for reduced order models that can recover the crucial features both with model fidelity in statistical equilibrium and with model sensitivity in response to perturbations. In the first part, we discuss a general mathematical framework to construct statistically accurate reduced-order models that have skill in capturing the statistical variability in the principal directions of a general class of complex systems with quadratic nonlinearity. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical closure schemes, which are built through new global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity, are designed and tested for UQ of these problems. Second, the capacity of imperfect low-order stochastic approximations to model extreme events in a passive scalar field advected by turbulent flows is investigated. The effects in complicated flow systems are considered including strong nonlinear and non-Gaussian interactions, and much simpler and cheaper imperfect models with model error are constructed to capture the crucial statistical features in the stationary tracer field. Several mathematical ideas are introduced to improve the prediction skill of the imperfect reduced-order models. Most importantly, empirical information theory and statistical linear response theory are

  17. A user-friendly earth system model of low complexity: the ESCIMO system dynamics model of global warming towards 2100

    Science.gov (United States)

    Randers, Jorgen; Golüke, Ulrich; Wenstøp, Fred; Wenstøp, Søren

    2016-11-01

    We have made a simple system dynamics model, ESCIMO (Earth System Climate Interpretable Model), which runs on a desktop computer in seconds and is able to reproduce the main output from more complex climate models. ESCIMO represents the main causal mechanisms at work in the Earth system and is able to reproduce the broad outline of climate history from 1850 to 2015. We have run many simulations with ESCIMO to 2100 and beyond. In this paper we present the effects of introducing in 2015 six possible global policy interventions that cost around USD 1000 billion per year - around 1 % of world GDP. We tentatively conclude (a) that these policy interventions can at most reduce the global mean surface temperature - GMST - by up to 0.5 °C in 2050 and up to 1.0 °C in 2100 relative to no intervention. The exception is injection of aerosols into the stratosphere, which can reduce the GMST by more than 1.0 °C in a decade but creates other serious problems. We also conclude (b) that relatively cheap human intervention can keep global warming in this century below +2 °C relative to preindustrial times. Finally, we conclude (c) that run-away warming is unlikely to occur in this century but is likely to occur in the longer run. The ensuing warming is slow, however. In ESCIMO, it takes several hundred years to lift the GMST to +3 °C above preindustrial times through gradual self-reinforcing melting of the permafrost. We call for research to test whether more complex climate models support our tentative conclusions from ESCIMO.

  18. Modelling of Mass Transfer Phenomena in Chemical and Biochemical Reactor Systems using Computational Fluid Dynamics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsson, Hilde Kristina

    Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) is the application of numerical methods to solve systems of partial differential equations related to fluid dynamics. The continuity and the momentum equations are the most commonly applied equations within CFD, and together they can be used to calculate...... the velocity and pressure distributions in a fluid. CFD also enables the modelling of several fluids simultaneously, e.g. gas bubbles in a liquid, as well as the presence of turbulence and dissolved chemicals in a fluid, and many other phenomena. This makes CFD an appreciated tool for studying flow structures...... and an ion-exchange reaction are also modelled and compared to experimental data. The thesis includes a comprehensive overview of the fundamentals behind a CFD software, as well as a more detailed review of the fluid dynamic phenomena investigated in this project. The momentum and continuity equations...

  19. Accelerated Simulation of Discrete Event Dynamic Systems via a Multi-Fidelity Modeling Framework

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seon Han Choi

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Simulation analysis has been performed for simulation experiments of all possible input combinations as a “what-if” analysis, which causes the simulation to be extremely time-consuming. To resolve this problem, this paper proposes a multi-fidelity modeling framework for enhancing simulation speed while minimizing simulation accuracy loss. A target system for this framework is a discrete event dynamic system. The dynamic property of the system facilitates the development of variable fidelity models for the target system due to its high computational cost; and the discrete event property allows for determining when to change the fidelity within a simulation scenario. For formal representation, the paper defines several key concepts such as an interest region, a fidelity change condition, and a selection model. These concepts are integrated into the framework to allow for the achievement of a condition-based disjunction of high- and low-fidelity simulations within a scenario. The proposed framework is applied to two case studies: unmanned underwater and urban transportation vehicles. The results show that simulation speed increases at least 1.21 times with a 5% accuracy loss. We expect that the proposed framework will resolve a computationally expensive problem in the simulation analysis of discrete event dynamic systems.

  20. Generic dynamic wind turbine models for power system stability analysis: A comprehensive review

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Honrubia-Escribano, A.; Gómez-Lázaro, E.; Fortmann, J.

    2018-01-01

    the subsequent changes made during the development phase. The main differences between IEC and WECC generic models are also analyzed. Not only is the final model structure presented but we also provide a complete description of the physical behavior of wind turbines facing power system stability problems......In recent years, international working groups, mainly from the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), have made a major effort to develop generic —also known as simplified or standard— dynamic wind turbine models to be used for power...... system stability analysis. These models are required by power system operators to conduct the planning and operation activities of their networks since the use of detailed manufacturer models is not practical. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done in this field, based on the results...

  1. Low-order dynamical system model of a fully developed turbulent channel flow

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamilton, Nicholas; Tutkun, Murat; Cal, Raúl Bayoán

    2017-06-01

    A reduced order model of a turbulent channel flow is composed from a direct numerical simulation database hosted at the Johns Hopkins University. Snapshot proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is used to identify the Hilbert space from which the reduced order model is obtained, as the POD basis is defined to capture the optimal energy content by mode. The reduced order model is defined by coupling the evolution of the dynamic POD mode coefficients through their respective time derivative with a least-squares polynomial fit of terms up to third order. Parameters coupling the dynamics of the POD basis are defined in analog to those produced in the classical Galerkin projection. The resulting low-order dynamical system is tested for a range of basis modes demonstrating that the non-linear mode interactions do not lead to a monotonic decrease in error propagation. A basis of five POD modes accounts for 50% of the integrated turbulence kinetic energy but captures only the largest features of the turbulence in the channel flow and is not able to reflect the anticipated flow dynamics. Using five modes, the low-order model is unable to accurately reproduce Reynolds stresses, and the root-mean-square error of the predicted stresses is as great as 30%. Increasing the basis to 28 modes accounts for 90% of the kinetic energy and adds intermediate scales to the dynamical system. The difference between the time derivatives of the random coefficients associated with individual modes and their least-squares fit is amplified in the numerical integration leading to unstable long-time solutions. Periodic recalibration of the dynamical system is undertaken by limiting the integration time to the range of the sampled data and offering the dynamical system new initial conditions. Renewed initial conditions are found by pushing the mode coefficients in the end of the integration time toward a known point along the original trajectories identified through a least-squares projection. Under

  2. Dynamical implications of prescribing part of a coupled system: Results from a low-order model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. T. Wittenberg

    1998-01-01

    Full Text Available It is a common procedure in climate modelling to specify dynamical system components from an external source; a prominent example is the forcing of an atmospheric model with observed sea surface temperatures. In this paper, we examine the dynamics of such forced models using a simple prototype climate system. A particular fully coupled run of the model is designated the "true" solution, and an ensemble of perturbed initial states is generated by adding small errors to the "true" initial state. The perturbed ensemble is then integrated for the same period as the true solution, using both the fully-coupled model and a model in which the ocean is prescribed exactly from the true solution at every time step. Although the prescribed forcing is error-free, the forced-atmosphere ensemble is shown to converge to spurious solutions. Statistical tests show that neither the time-mean state nor the variability of the forced ensemble is consistent with the fully-coupled system. A stability analysis reveals the source of the inconsistency, and suggests that such behaviour may be a more general feature of models with prescribed subsystems. Possible implications for model validation and predictability are discussed.

  3. A modified precise integration method for transient dynamic analysis in structural systems with multiple damping models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Zhe; Li, Li; Hu, Yujin

    2018-01-01

    Sophisticated engineering systems are usually assembled by subcomponents with significantly different levels of energy dissipation. Therefore, these damping systems often contain multiple damping models and lead to great difficulties in analyzing. This paper aims at developing a time integration method for structural systems with multiple damping models. The dynamical system is first represented by a generally damped model. Based on this, a new extended state-space method for the damped system is derived. A modified precise integration method with Gauss-Legendre quadrature is then proposed. The numerical stability and accuracy of the proposed integration method are discussed in detail. It is verified that the method is conditionally stable and has inherent algorithmic damping, period error and amplitude decay. Numerical examples are provided to assess the performance of the proposed method compared with other methods. It is demonstrated that the method is more accurate than other methods with rather good efficiency and the stable condition is easy to be satisfied in practice.

  4. Dynamic analysis of planar mechanical systems with clearance joints using a new nonlinear contact force model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wang, Xupeng; Liu, Geng; Ma, Shangjun [Northwestern Polytechnical University, Xi' an (China)

    2016-04-15

    We investigated the dynamic behavior of planar mechanical systems with clearance joints. First, the contact effect in clearance joint was studied using a new nonlinear contact force model, and the rationality of this model was verified by the results of numerical simulations, which are based on a journal and bearing contact model. Then, the dynamic characteristics of a planar slider-crank mechanism with clearance were analyzed based on the new nonlinear contact force model, and the friction effect of clearance joint was also considered using modified Coulomb friction model. Finally, the numerical results of the influence of clearance size on the acceleration of slider are presented, and compared with the published experimental results. The numerical and experimental results show that the new nonlinear contact force model presented in this paper is an effective method to predict the dynamic behavior of planar mechanical system with clearance joints, and appears to be suitable for a wide range of impact situations, especially with low coefficient of restitution.

  5. A dynamical systems approach to the tilted Bianchi models of solvable type

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coley, Alan; Hervik, Sigbjørn

    2005-02-01

    We use a dynamical systems approach to analyse the tilting spatially homogeneous Bianchi models of solvable type (e.g., types VIh and VIIh) with a perfect fluid and a linear barotropic γ-law equation of state. In particular, we study the late-time behaviour of tilted Bianchi models, with an emphasis on the existence of equilibrium points and their stability properties. We briefly discuss the tilting Bianchi type V models and the late-time asymptotic behaviour of irrotational Bianchi type VII0 models. We prove the important result that for non-inflationary Bianchi type VIIh models vacuum plane-wave solutions are the only future attracting equilibrium points in the Bianchi type VIIh invariant set. We then investigate the dynamics close to the plane-wave solutions in more detail, and discover some new features that arise in the dynamical behaviour of Bianchi cosmologies with the inclusion of tilt. We point out that in a tiny open set of parameter space in the type IV model (the loophole) there exist closed curves which act as attracting limit cycles. More interestingly, in the Bianchi type VIIh models there is a bifurcation in which a set of equilibrium points turns into closed orbits. There is a region in which both sets of closed curves coexist, and it appears that for the type VIIh models in this region the solution curves approach a compact surface which is topologically a torus.

  6. Update on Small Modular Reactors Dynamics System Modeling Tool -- Molten Salt Cooled Architecture

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, Richard Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Qualls, A L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Borum, Robert C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chaleff, Ethan S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rogerson, Doug W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Batteh, John J. [Modelon Corporation (Sweden); Tiller, Michael M. [Xogeny Corporation, Canton, MI (United States)

    2014-08-01

    The Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Dynamic System Modeling Tool project is in the third year of development. The project is designed to support collaborative modeling and study of various advanced SMR (non-light water cooled) concepts, including the use of multiple coupled reactors at a single site. The objective of the project is to provide a common simulation environment and baseline modeling resources to facilitate rapid development of dynamic advanced reactor SMR models, ensure consistency among research products within the Instrumentation, Controls, and Human-Machine Interface (ICHMI) technical area, and leverage cross-cutting capabilities while minimizing duplication of effort. The combined simulation environment and suite of models are identified as the Modular Dynamic SIMulation (MoDSIM) tool. The critical elements of this effort include (1) defining a standardized, common simulation environment that can be applied throughout the program, (2) developing a library of baseline component modules that can be assembled into full plant models using existing geometry and thermal-hydraulic data, (3) defining modeling conventions for interconnecting component models, and (4) establishing user interfaces and support tools to facilitate simulation development (i.e., configuration and parameterization), execution, and results display and capture.

  7. System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Cheng

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity (WRCC was set up using the method of system dynamics (SD. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted: (1 continuity of existing water utilization, (2 water conservation/saving, and (3 water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

  8. Dynamic modelling of a PV pumping system with special consideration on water demand

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Campana, Pietro Elia; Li, Hailong; Yan, Jinyue

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► Evaluation of water demand and solar energy is essential for PV pumping system. ► The design for a PV water pumping system has been optimized based on dynamic simulations. ► It is important to conduct dynamic simulations to check the matching between water demand and water supply. ► AC pump driven by the fixed PV array is the most cost-effective solution. - Abstract: The exploitation of solar energy in remote areas through photovoltaic (PV) systems is an attractive solution for water pumping for irrigation systems. The design of a photovoltaic water pumping system (PVWPS) strictly depends on the estimation of the crop water requirements and land use since the water demand varies during the watering season and the solar irradiation changes time by time. It is of significance to conduct dynamic simulations in order to achieve the successful and optimal design. The aim of this paper is to develop a dynamic modelling tool for the design of a of photovoltaic water pumping system by combining the models of the water demand, the solar PV power and the pumping system, which can be used to validate the design procedure in terms of matching between water demand and water supply. Both alternate current (AC) and direct current (DC) pumps and both fixed and two-axis tracking PV array were analyzed. The tool has been applied in a case study. Results show that it has the ability to do rapid design and optimization of PV water pumping system by reducing the power peak and selecting the proper devices from both technical and economic viewpoints. Among the different alternatives considered in this study, the AC fixed system represented the best cost effective solution

  9. Bridge Deterioration Prediction Model Based On Hybrid Markov-System Dynamic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Widodo Soetjipto Jojok

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Instantaneous bridge failure tends to increase in Indonesia. To mitigate this condition, Indonesia’s Bridge Management System (I-BMS has been applied to continuously monitor the condition of bridges. However, I-BMS only implements visual inspection for maintenance priority of the bridge structure component instead of bridge structure system. This paper proposes a new bridge failure prediction model based on hybrid Markov-System Dynamic (MSD. System dynamic is used to represent the correlation among bridge structure components while Markov chain is used to calculate temporal probability of the bridge failure. Around 235 data of bridges in Indonesia were collected from Directorate of Bridge the Ministry of Public Works and Housing for calculating transition probability of the model. To validate the model, a medium span concrete bridge was used as a case study. The result shows that the proposed model can accurately predict the bridge condition. Besides predicting the probability of the bridge failure, this model can also be used as an early warning system for bridge monitoring activity.

  10. a System Dynamics Model to Study the Importance of Infrastructure Facilities on Quality of Primary Education System in Developing Countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedamallu, Chandra Sekhar; Ozdamar, Linet; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm; Kropat, Erik

    2010-06-01

    The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for study the importance of infrastructure facilities on quality of primary education system in developing nations. The model is proposed to be built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the primary education system in any given community. We offer a survey to build the cross-impact correlation matrix and, hence, to better understand the primary education system and importance of infrastructural facilities on quality of primary education. The resulting model enables us to predict the effects of infrastructural facilities on the access of primary education by the community. This may support policy makers to take more effective actions in campaigns.

  11. Hopping system control with an approximated dynamics model and upper-body motion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hyang Jun; Oh, Jun Ho [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    A hopping system is highly non-linear due to the nature of its dynamics, which has alternating phases in a cycle, flight and stance phases and related transitions. Every control method that stabilizes the hopping system satisfies the Poincaré stability condition. At the Poincaré section, a hopping system cycle is considered as discrete sectional data set. By controlling the sectional data in a discrete control form, we can generate a stable hopping cycle. We utilize phase-mapping matrices to build a Poincaré return map by approximating the dynamics of the hopping system with SLIP model. We can generate various Poincaré stable gait patterns with the approximated discrete control form which uses upper-body motions as inputs.

  12. Information-theoretic model selection for optimal prediction of stochastic dynamical systems from data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Darmon, David

    2018-03-01

    In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.

  13. Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří

    2015-01-01

    In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text

  14. Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří [Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno (Czech Republic)

    2015-03-10

    In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text.

  15. Thermodynamic model of a thermal storage air conditioning system with dynamic behavior

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fleming, E; Wen, SY; Shi, L; da Silva, AK

    2013-12-01

    A thermodynamic model was developed to predict transient behavior of a thermal storage system, using phase change materials (PCMs), for a novel electric vehicle climate conditioning application. The main objectives of the paper are to consider the system's dynamic behavior, such as a dynamic air flow rate into the vehicle's cabin, and to characterize the transient heat transfer process between the thermal storage unit and the vehicle's cabin, while still maintaining accurate solution to the complex phase change heat transfer. The system studied consists of a heat transfer fluid circulating between either of the on-board hot and cold thermal storage units, which we refer to as thermal batteries, and a liquid-air heat exchanger that provides heat exchange with the incoming air to the vehicle cabin. Each thermal battery is a shell-and-tube configuration where a heat transfer fluid flows through parallel tubes, which are surrounded by PCM within a larger shell. The system model incorporates computationally inexpensive semianalytic solution to the conjugated laminar forced convection and phase change problem within the battery and accounts for airside heat exchange using the Number of Transfer Units (NTUs) method for the liquid-air heat exchanger. Using this approach, we are able to obtain an accurate solution to the complex heat transfer problem within the battery while also incorporating the impact of the airside heat transfer on the overall system performance. The implemented model was benchmarked against a numerical study for a melting process and against full system experimental data for solidification using paraffin wax as the PCM. Through modeling, we demonstrate the importance of capturing the airside heat exchange impact on system performance, and we investigate system response to dynamic operating conditions, e.g., air recirculation. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Thermodynamic model of a thermal storage air conditioning system with dynamic behavior

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fleming, Evan; Wen, Shaoyi; Shi, Li; Silva, Alexandre K. da

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • We developed an automotive thermal storage air conditioning system model. • The thermal storage unit utilizes phase change materials. • We use semi-analytic solution to the coupled phase change and forced convection. • We model the airside heat exchange using the NTU method. • The system model can incorporate dynamic inputs, e.g. variable inlet airflow. - Abstract: A thermodynamic model was developed to predict transient behavior of a thermal storage system, using phase change materials (PCMs), for a novel electric vehicle climate conditioning application. The main objectives of the paper are to consider the system’s dynamic behavior, such as a dynamic air flow rate into the vehicle’s cabin, and to characterize the transient heat transfer process between the thermal storage unit and the vehicle’s cabin, while still maintaining accurate solution to the complex phase change heat transfer. The system studied consists of a heat transfer fluid circulating between either of the on-board hot and cold thermal storage units, which we refer to as thermal batteries, and a liquid–air heat exchanger that provides heat exchange with the incoming air to the vehicle cabin. Each thermal battery is a shell-and-tube configuration where a heat transfer fluid flows through parallel tubes, which are surrounded by PCM within a larger shell. The system model incorporates computationally inexpensive semi-analytic solution to the conjugated laminar forced convection and phase change problem within the battery and accounts for airside heat exchange using the Number of Transfer Units (NTUs) method for the liquid–air heat exchanger. Using this approach, we are able to obtain an accurate solution to the complex heat transfer problem within the battery while also incorporating the impact of the airside heat transfer on the overall system performance. The implemented model was benchmarked against a numerical study for a melting process and against full system

  17. Impact of Cross-Axis Structural Dynamics on Validation of Linear Models for Space Launch System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pei, Jing; Derry, Stephen D.; Zhou Zhiqiang; Newsom, Jerry R.

    2014-01-01

    A feasibility study was performed to examine the advisability of incorporating a set of Programmed Test Inputs (PTIs) during the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle flight. The intent of these inputs is to provide validation to the preflight models for control system stability margins, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics. During October 2009, Ares I-X program was successful in carrying out a series of PTI maneuvers which provided a significant amount of valuable data for post-flight analysis. The resulting data comparisons showed excellent agreement with the preflight linear models across the frequency spectrum of interest. However unlike Ares I-X, the structural dynamics associated with the SLS boost phase configuration are far more complex and highly coupled in all three axes. This presents a challenge when implementing this similar system identification technique to SLS. Preliminary simulation results show noticeable mismatches between PTI validation and analytical linear models in the frequency range of the structural dynamics. An alternate approach was examined which demonstrates the potential for better overall characterization of the system frequency response as well as robustness of the control design.

  18. GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Klimešová, Dana

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory

  19. Dynamical system analysis of a low-order tropical cyclone model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daria Schönemann

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Tropical cyclone dynamics is investigated by means of a conceptual box model. The tropical cyclone (TC is divided into three regions, the eye, eyewall and ambient region. The model forms a low-order dynamical system of three ordinary differential equations. These are based on entropy budget equations comprising processes of surface enthalpy transfer, entropy advection, convection and radiative cooling. For tropical ocean parameter settings, the system possesses four non-trivial steady state solutions when the sea surface temperature (SST is above a critical value. Two steady states are unstable while the two remaining states are stable. Bifurcation diagrams provide an explanation why only finite-amplitude perturbations above a critical SST can transform into TCs. Besides SST, relative humidity of the ambient region forms an important model parameter. The surfaces that describe equilibria as a function of SST and relative humidity reveal a cusp-catastrophe where the two non-trivial equilibria split into four. Within the model regime of four equilibria, cyclogenesis becomes very unlikely due to the repelling and attracting effects of the two additional equilibria. The results are in qualitative agreement with observations and evince the relevance of the simple model approach to the dynamics of TC formation and its maximum potential intensity.

  20. An integrated system dynamics model developed for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Hui; Benoit, Gaboury; Liu, Tao; Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng

    2015-05-15

    A reliable system simulation to relate socioeconomic development with water environment and to comprehensively represent a watershed's dynamic features is important. In this study, after identifying lake watershed system processes, we developed a system dynamics modeling framework for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale. Two reinforcing loops (Development and Investment Promotion) and three balancing loops (Pollution, Resource Consumption, and Pollution Control) were constituted. Based on this work, we constructed Stock and Flow Diagrams that embedded a pollutant load model and a lake water quality model into a socioeconomic system dynamics model. The Dianchi Lake in Yunnan Province, China, which is the sixth largest and among the most severely polluted freshwater lakes in China, was employed as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Water quality parameters considered in the model included chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three alternative management scenarios on spatial adjustment of industries and population (S1), wastewater treatment capacity construction (S2), and structural adjustment of agriculture (S3), were simulated to assess the effectiveness of certain policies in improving water quality. Results showed that S2 is most effective scenario, and the COD, TN, and TP concentrations in Caohai in 2030 are 52.5, 10.9, and 0.8 mg/L, while those in Waihai are 9.6, 1.2, and 0.08 mg/L, with sustained development in the watershed. Thus, the model can help support the decision making required in development and environmental protection strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling and simulation of a dynamical system with the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative

    Science.gov (United States)

    Owolabi, Kolade M.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, we model an ecological system consisting of a predator and two preys with the newly derived two-step fractional Adams-Bashforth method via the Atangana-Baleanu derivative in the Caputo sense. We analyze the dynamical system for correct choice of parameter values that are biologically meaningful. The local analysis of the main model is based on the application of qualitative theory for ordinary differential equations. By using the fixed point theorem idea, we establish the existence and uniqueness of the solutions. Convergence results of the new scheme are verified in both space and time. Dynamical wave phenomena of solutions are verified via some numerical results obtained for different values of the fractional index, which have some interesting ecological implications.

  2. The effect of food portion sizes on the obesity prevention using system dynamics modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zulkepli, Jafri Hj; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura

    2014-09-01

    The rise in income and population growth have increased the demand for food and induced changes in food habits, food purchasing and consumption patterns in Malaysia. With this transition, one of the plausible causes of weight gain and obesity is the frequent consumption of outside food which is synonymous with bigger portion size. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model to analyse the effect of reducing food portion size on weight and obesity prevention. This study combines the different strands of knowledge comprise of nutrition, physical activity and body metabolism. These elements are synthesized into a system dynamics model called SIMULObese. Findings from this study suggested that changes in eating behavior should not emphasize only on limiting the food portion size consumption. The efforts should also consider other eating events such as controlling the meal frequency and limiting intake of high-calorie food in developing guidelines to prevent obesity.

  3. Evaluation of Sustainability of Brazilian Ethanol Production: A model in System Dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnoldo Jose de Hoyos Guevara

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics is an approach to analyze the behavior of complex systems, such as the productive chains, strictly considering the inherent characteristics. This approach is based on mathematical concepts of nonlinear processes developed in mathematics and physics and consolidated in engineering. The concepts inherent in this approach assists in creating a mathematical model that represents a production chain by using computer simulation. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to present the formalization of the dynamic model of assessing the sustainability of Brazilian ethanol production. We analyzed the external environment and the scenarios needed for a deeper understanding of relation of cause and effect, causal loops and diagrams of flows and stocks because of the awareness stage, with regard to understanding the problems involved, according to methodology known as design science.

  4. A new simulation model building process for use in dynamic systems integration research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbuckle, P. Douglas; Buttrill, Carey S.; Zeiler, Thomas A.

    1987-01-01

    A framework to build simulation models for aircraft dynamic systems integration is described. The objective of the framework is increased simulation model fidelity and reduced time required to develop and modify these models. The equations of motion for an elastic aircraft and their impact on the framework are discussed in broad terms. A software tool which automatically generates FORTRAN routines for tabular data lookups, the language used to develop a simulation model, and the structures for passing information into a simulation are discussed. A simulation variable nomenclature is presented. The framework has been applied to build an open-loop F/A-18 simulation model. This example model is used to illustrate model reduction issues. Current deficiencies in the framework are identified as areas for future research.

  5. MODELING OF DYNAMIC SYSTEMS WITH MODULATION BY MEANS OF KRONECKER VECTOR-MATRIX REPRESENTATION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. S. Vasilyev

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper deals with modeling of dynamic systems with modulation by the possibilities of state-space method. This method, being the basis of modern control theory, is based on the possibilities of vector-matrix formalism of linear algebra and helps to solve various problems of technical control of continuous and discrete nature invariant with respect to the dimension of their “input-output” objects. Unfortunately, it turned its back on the wide group of control systems, which hardware environment modulates signals. The marked system deficiency is partially offset by this paper, which proposes Kronecker vector-matrix representations for purposes of system representation of processes with signal modulation. The main result is vector-matrix representation of processes with modulation with no formal difference from continuous systems. It has been found that abilities of these representations could be effectively used in research of systems with modulation. Obtained model representations of processes with modulation are best adapted to the state-space method. These approaches for counting eigenvalues of Kronecker matrix summaries, that are matrix basis of model representations of processes described by Kronecker vector products, give the possibility to use modal direction in research of dynamics for systems with modulation. It is shown that the use of controllability for eigenvalues of general matrixes applied to Kronecker structures enabled to divide successfully eigenvalue spectrum into directed and not directed components. Obtained findings including design problems for models of dynamic processes with modulation based on the features of Kronecker vector and matrix structures, invariant with respect to the dimension of input-output relations, are applicable in the development of alternate current servo drives.

  6. Ecohealth System Dynamic Model as a Planning Tool for the Reduction of Breeding Sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Respati, T.; Raksanagara, A.; Djuhaeni, H.; Sofyan, A.; Shandriasti, A.

    2017-03-01

    Dengue is still one of major health problem in Indonesia. Dengue transmission is influenced by dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment and climate. The complexity of the disease coupled with limited resources necessitates different approach for prevention methods that include factors contribute to the transmission. One way to prevent the dengue transmission is by reducing the mosquito’s breeding sites. Four factors suspected to influence breeding sites are dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment, and weather condition. In order to have an effective program in reducing the breeding site it is needed to have a model which can predict existence of the breeding sites while the four factors under study are controlled. The objective of this study is to develop an Ecohealth model using system dynamic as a planning tool for the reduction of breeding sites to prevent dengue transmission with regard to dengue prevention and eradication program, community participation, housing environment, and weather condition. The methodology is a mixed method study using sequential exploratory design. The study comprised of 3 stages: first a qualitative study to 14 respondents using in-depth interview and 6 respondents for focus group discussion. The results from the first stage was used to develop entomology and household survey questionnaires for second stage conducted in 2036 households across 12 sub districts in Bandung City. Ecohealth system dynamic model was developed using data from first and second stages. Analyses used are thematic analysis for qualitative data; spatial, generalized estimating equation (GEE) and structural equation modeling for quantitative data; also average mean error (AME) and average variance error (AVE) for dynamic system model validation. System dynamic model showed that the most effective approach to eliminate breeding places was by ensuring the availability

  7. COMPUTER DYNAMICS MODELING OF TRANSPORT FACILITIES WITH ANTI-LOCKING AND ANTI-SLIPPAGE SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. N. Hurski

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper considers a methodology for testing anti-locking system (ALS of new generation. Results of computer  dynamics  modeling of automobile motion at braking with ALS and without ALS are given in the paper. The paper also contains an analysis of  basic characteristics: a braking distance, a value of longitudinal delay, an influence of modulator speed on the efficiency of a braking 

  8. A System Dynamics Model to Predict Municipal Waste Generation and Management Costs in Developing Areas

    OpenAIRE

    Al-Khatib, I.A.; Eleyan, D.; Garfield, Joy

    2015-01-01

    This paper utilized system dynamics modeling as a new analytical approach to predict both the municipal waste generated and the associated disposal costs in developing areas. This approach facilitates the decomposition of general waste into its main components to enable municipalities to manage recyclables and find out the feasibility of performing recycling better rather than disposal by performing comparative disposal cost analysis. This study is different from previous work as it only cons...

  9. Dynamic modeling system for the transfer of radioactivity in terrestrial food chains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Simmonds, J.R.; Linsley, G.S.

    1981-01-01

    A dynamic modeling system is described for the transfer of radionuclides in terrestrial food chains. The main features of the system are its ability to predict the time dependence of the major transfer processes and its flexibility and applicability to a range of contamination scenarios. The modeling system is regarded as a basic framework on which more realistic models can be based, given the availability of reliable environmental transfer data. An example of such a development is included for 90 Sr in the pasture-cow-milk pathway. The model predicts annual average concentrations of 90 Sr in milk caused by fallout in the United Kingdom to within 15% of measured values for over most of the 20-y period for which data exist. It makes possible the evaluation of the time dependence of the contributions of various transfer processes. Following acute releases to the atmosphere or releases in any other contamination scenario where direct deposition is absent, certain pathways often not considered in food-chain models, such as the external contamination of plants caused by resuspension processes or the ingestion of contaminants together with soil by grazing animals, are shown to be potentially important in the transfer of activity to man. The main application of dynamic food-chain models is the prediction of the consequences of accidental releases to the terrestrial environment. The predictions can be used in planning countermeasures and in assessing the health, economic, and social impacts of accidental release

  10. Control Systems for a Dynamic Multi-Physics Model of a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Greenwood, Michael Scott [ORNL; Fugate, David W [ORNL; Cetiner, Sacit M [ORNL

    2017-01-01

    A Nuclear Hybrid Energy System (NHES) uses a nuclear reactor as the basic power generation unit, and the power generated is used by multiple customers as either thermal power, electrical power, or both. The definition and architecture of a particular NHES can be adapted based on the needs and opportunities of different local markets. For example, locations in need of potable water may be best served by coupling a desalination plant to the NHES. Similarly, a location near oil refineries may have a need for emission-free hydrogen production. Using the flexible, multi-domain capabilities of Modelica, Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are investigating the dynamics (e.g., thermal hydraulics and electrical generation/consumption) and cost of a hybrid system. This paper examines the NHES work underway, emphasizing the control system developed for individual subsystems and the overall supervisory control system.

  11. Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Deep Geothermal Electric Submersible Pumping Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Julian Kullick

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Deep geothermal energy systems employ electric submersible pumps (ESPs in order to lift geothermal fluid from the production well to the surface. However, rough downhole conditions and high flow rates impose heavy strain on the components, leading to frequent failures of the pump system. As downhole sensor data is limited and often unrealible, a detailed and dynamical model system will serve as basis for deeper understanding and analysis of the overall system behavior. Furthermore, it allows to design model-based condition monitoring and fault detection systems, and to improve controls leading to a more robust and efficient operation. In this paper, a detailed state-space model of the complete ESP system is derived, covering the electrical, mechanical and hydraulic subsystems. Based on the derived model, the start-up phase of an exemplary yet realistic ESP system in the Megawatt range—located at a setting depth of 950 m and producing geothermal fluid of 140 ∘ C temperature at a rate of 0.145 m 3 s − 1 —is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink. The simulation results show that the system reaches a stable operating point with realistic values. Furthermore, the effect of self-excitation between the filter capacitor and the motor inductor can clearly be observed. A full set of parameters is provided, allowing for direct model implementation and reproduction of the presented results.

  12. The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steen Nielsen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

  13. Fuzzy Nonlinear Dynamic Evaporator Model in Supercritical Organic Rankine Cycle Waste Heat Recovery Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jahedul Islam Chowdhury

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The organic Rankine cycle (ORC-based waste heat recovery (WHR system operating under a supercritical condition has a higher potential of thermal efficiency and work output than a traditional subcritical cycle. However, the operation of supercritical cycles is more challenging due to the high pressure in the system and transient behavior of waste heat sources from industrial and automotive engines that affect the performance of the system and the evaporator, which is the most crucial component of the ORC. To take the transient behavior into account, the dynamic model of the evaporator using renowned finite volume (FV technique is developed in this paper. Although the FV model can capture the transient effects accurately, the model has a limitation for real-time control applications due to its time-intensive computation. To capture the transient effects and reduce the simulation time, a novel fuzzy-based nonlinear dynamic evaporator model is also developed and presented in this paper. The results show that the fuzzy-based model was able to capture the transient effects at a data fitness of over 90%, while it has potential to complete the simulation 700 times faster than the FV model. By integrating with other subcomponent models of the system, such as pump, expander, and condenser, the predicted system output and pressure have a mean average percentage error of 3.11% and 0.001%, respectively. These results suggest that the developed fuzzy-based evaporator and the overall ORC-WHR system can be used for transient simulations and to develop control strategies for real-time applications.

  14. Nonlinear dynamic model of a gear-rotor-bearing system considering the flash temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gou, Xiangfeng; Zhu, Lingyun; Qi, Changjun

    2017-12-01

    The instantaneous flash temperature is an important factor for gears in service. To investigate the effect of the flash temperature of a tooth surface on the dynamics of the spur gear system, a modified nonlinear dynamic model of a gear-rotor-bearing system is established. The factors such as the contact temperature of the tooth surface, time-varying stiffness, tooth surface friction, backlash, the comprehensive transmission error and so on are considered. The flash temperature of a tooth surface of pinion and gear is formulated according to Blok's flash temperature theory. The mathematical expression of the contact temperature of the tooth surface varied with time is derived and the tooth profile deformation caused by the change of the flash temperature of the tooth surface is calculated. The expression of the mesh stiffness varied with the flash temperature of the tooth surface is derived based on Hertz contact theory. The temperature stiffness is proposed and added to the nonlinear dynamic model of the system. The influence of load on the flash temperature of the tooth surface is analyzed in the parameters plane. The variation of the flash temperature of the tooth surface is studied. The numerical results indicate that the calculated method of the flash temperature of the gear tooth surface is effective and it can reflect the rules for the change of gear meshing temperature and sliding of the gear tooth surface. The effects of frequency, backlash, bearing clearance, comprehensive transmission error and time-varying stiffness on the nonlinear dynamics of the system are analyzed according to the bifurcation diagrams, Top Lyapunov Exponent (TLE) spectrums, phase portraits and Poincaré maps. Some nonlinear phenomena such as periodic bifurcation, grazing bifurcation, quasi-periodic bifurcation, chaos and its routes to chaos are investigated and the critical parameters are identified. The results provide an understanding of the system and serve as a useful reference

  15. A Comparative Study of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems in Modeling of a Nonlinear Dynamic System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Metin Demirtas

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the neural networks and fuzzy modeling approaches on a nonlinear system. We have taken Permanent Magnet Brushless Direct Current (PMBDC motor data and have generated models using both approaches. The predictive performance of both methods was compared on the data set for model configurations. The paper describes the results of these tests and discusses the effects of changing model parameters on predictive and practical performance. Modeling sensitivity was used to compare for two methods.

  16. Dynamic Modeling and Damping Function of GUPFC in Multi-Machine Power System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sasongko Pramono Hadi

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents a new dynamic model of multi-machine power system equipped with GUPFC for power system study, and using PSS and GUPFC POD controller some effective control schemes are proposed to improve power system stability. Based on UPFC configuration, an additional series boosting transformer is considered to define a GUPFC configuration and its mathematical model; Phillips-Heffron scheme is used to formulate machine model, and modification of network dealing with GUPFC parameter is carried out to develop a MIMO as well as comprehensive power system with GUPFC model. Genetics Algorithm method was proposed to lead-lag compensation design, this technique provides the parameter controller. The controller produced supplementary signals, the PSS for machine and POD for GUPFC. By applying a small disturbance, the dynamic stability power system was investigated. Simulation results show that the proposed power system with GUPFC model is valid and suitable for stability analysis. The installation of GUPFC without POD decreased the damping oscillation. But, the results show that the presence of GUPFC in power system network provided by PSS and POD controller is very potential to improve system stability. A 66% overshoot reduction could be reached, it is obtained 12 s in settling time (shorter, although the rise time become 700 ms longer. Simulation results revealed that the role of POD controller is more dominant than the PSS, however both PSS and GUPFC POD controller simultaneously present a positive interaction. Phase angle of converter C, δC is the most significant control signal POD in oscillation damping.

  17. Butschli Dynamic Droplet System

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Armstrong, R.; Hanczyc, M.

    2013-01-01

    Dynamical oil-water systems such as droplets display lifelike properties and may lend themselves to chemical programming to perform useful work, specifically with respect to the built environment. We present Butschli water-in-oil droplets as a model for further investigation into the development ...

  18. Prediction of population with Alzheimer's disease in the European Union using a system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil

    2016-01-01

    Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.

  19. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-01-01

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model

  20. Agent-based financial dynamics model from stochastic interacting epidemic system and complexity analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli

    2015-06-12

    An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.

  1. A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.

    2017-12-01

    The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.

  2. Dynamic modeling, experimental evaluation, optimal design and control of integrated fuel cell system and hybrid energy systems for building demands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Gia Luong Huu

    Fuel cells can produce electricity with high efficiency, low pollutants, and low noise. With the advent of fuel cell technologies, fuel cell systems have since been demonstrated as reliable power generators with power outputs from a few watts to a few megawatts. With proper equipment, fuel cell systems can produce heating and cooling, thus increased its overall efficiency. To increase the acceptance from electrical utilities and building owners, fuel cell systems must operate more dynamically and integrate well with renewable energy resources. This research studies the dynamic performance of fuel cells and the integration of fuel cells with other equipment in three levels: (i) the fuel cell stack operating on hydrogen and reformate gases, (ii) the fuel cell system consisting of a fuel reformer, a fuel cell stack, and a heat recovery unit, and (iii) the hybrid energy system consisting of photovoltaic panels, fuel cell system, and energy storage. In the first part, this research studied the steady-state and dynamic performance of a high temperature PEM fuel cell stack. Collaborators at Aalborg University (Aalborg, Denmark) conducted experiments on a high temperature PEM fuel cell short stack at steady-state and transients. Along with the experimental activities, this research developed a first-principles dynamic model of a fuel cell stack. The dynamic model developed in this research was compared to the experimental results when operating on different reformate concentrations. Finally, the dynamic performance of the fuel cell stack for a rapid increase and rapid decrease in power was evaluated. The dynamic model well predicted the performance of the well-performing cells in the experimental fuel cell stack. The second part of the research studied the dynamic response of a high temperature PEM fuel cell system consisting of a fuel reformer, a fuel cell stack, and a heat recovery unit with high thermal integration. After verifying the model performance with the

  3. Dynamical systems analysis of the Maasch-Saltzman model for glacial cycles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engler, Hans; Kaper, Hans G.; Kaper, Tasso J.; Vo, Theodore

    2017-11-01

    This article is concerned with the internal dynamics of a conceptual model proposed by Maasch and Saltzman (1990) to explain central features of the glacial cycles observed in the climate record of the Pleistocene Epoch. It is shown that, in most parameter regimes, the long-term system dynamics occur on certain intrinsic two-dimensional invariant manifolds in the three-dimensional state space. These invariant manifolds are slow manifolds when the characteristic time scales for the total global ice mass and the volume of the North Atlantic Deep Water are well separated, and they are center manifolds when these characteristic time scales are comparable. In both cases, the reduced dynamics on these manifolds are governed by Bogdanov-Takens singularities, and the bifurcation curves associated to these singularities organize the parameter regions in which the model exhibits glacial cycles. In addition, knowledge of the reduced systems and their bifurcations is useful for understanding the effects of slowly varying parameters, which cause passage through Hopf bifurcations, and of orbital (Milankovitch) forcing. Both are central to the mechanism proposed by Maasch and Saltzman for the mid-Pleistocene transition in their model.

  4. System Dynamics Modeling of interactive cost factors for small modular reactors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahn, Nam Sung; Lee, Keun Dae; Yoon, Suk Ho

    2011-01-01

    As a part of the Study on Economic Efficiency and Marketability of small modular reactors project, we at Nemo partners NEC consulting corporation were studying the various cost factors on small modular reactors (SMRs). To have a better knowledge of the interaction between the cost factors, System Dynamics Modeling has been developed. This model will contribute to our understanding of the interaction on the major factors effecting on the unit cost of SMRs to the SMRs' market share in the market economics as competition

  5. [Simulation and prediction of water environmental carrying capacity in Liaoning Province based on system dynamics model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jian; Li, Xue-liang; Li, Fa-yun; Bao, Hong-xu

    2009-09-01

    By the methods of system dynamics, a water environmental carrying capacity (WECC) model was constructed, and the dynamic trend of the WECC in Liaoning Province was simulated by using this model, in combining with analytical hierarchy process (AHP) and the vector norm method. It was predicted that under the conditions of maintaining present development schemes, the WECC in this province in 2000-2050 would be decreased year after year. Only increasing water resources supply while not implementing scientific and rational management of water environment could not improve the regional WECC, and the integration of searching for new and saving present water resources with controlling wastewater pollution and reducing sewage discharge would be the only effective way to improve the WECC and the coordinated development of economy, society, and environment in Liaoning.

  6. Control method and system for hydraulic machines employing a dynamic joint motion model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danko, George [Reno, NV

    2011-11-22

    A control method and system for controlling a hydraulically actuated mechanical arm to perform a task, the mechanical arm optionally being a hydraulically actuated excavator arm. The method can include determining a dynamic model of the motion of the hydraulic arm for each hydraulic arm link by relating the input signal vector for each respective link to the output signal vector for the same link. Also the method can include determining an error signal for each link as the weighted sum of the differences between a measured position and a reference position and between the time derivatives of the measured position and the time derivatives of the reference position for each respective link. The weights used in the determination of the error signal can be determined from the constant coefficients of the dynamic model. The error signal can be applied in a closed negative feedback control loop to diminish or eliminate the error signal for each respective link.

  7. Probabilistic risk assessment modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems using two dynamic methodologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aldemir, T., E-mail: aldemir.1@osu.ed [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guarro, S. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Mandelli, D. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kirschenbaum, J. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Mangan, L.A. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Bucci, P. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Yau, M. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Ekici, E. [Ohio State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Miller, D.W.; Sun, X. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arndt, S.A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

    2010-10-15

    The Markov/cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) and the dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) are two system logic modeling methodologies that have been proposed to address the dynamic characteristics of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems and provide risk-analytical capabilities that supplement those provided by traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for nuclear power plants. Both methodologies utilize a discrete state, multi-valued logic representation of the digital I and C system. For probabilistic quantification purposes, both techniques require the estimation of the probabilities of basic system failure modes, including digital I and C software failure modes, that appear in the prime implicants identified as contributors to a given system event of interest. As in any other system modeling process, the accuracy and predictive value of the models produced by the two techniques, depend not only on the intrinsic features of the modeling paradigm, but also and to a considerable extent on information and knowledge available to the analyst, concerning the system behavior and operation rules under normal and off-nominal conditions, and the associated controlled/monitored process dynamics. The application of the two methodologies is illustrated using a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS) similar to that of an operating pressurized water reactor. This application was carried out to demonstrate how the use of either technique, or both, can facilitate the updating of an existing nuclear power plant PRA model following an upgrade of the instrumentation and control system from analog to digital. Because of scope limitations, the focus of the demonstration of the methodologies was intentionally limited to aspects of digital I and C system behavior for which probabilistic data was on hand or could be generated within the existing project bounds of time and resources. The data used in the probabilistic quantification portion of the

  8. System dynamics modeling of social/political factors in nuclear power plant operations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansen, K.F.; Turek, M.G.; Eubanks, C.K.

    1995-01-01

    The safety and performance of nuclear power plants are a function of many technical factors such as initial design, service and maintenance programs, and utility investment in improvements. Safety and performance are also a function of the social/political influences that affect requirements on personnel, practices and procedures, and resource availability. This paper describes a process for constructing models of the social/political influences on plant operations using the system dynamics technique. The model incorporates representation of internal utility actions and decisions as affected by external factors such as public opinion, intervenor actions, safety and economic regulation, and the financial community. The feedback between external agents and plant performance is explicitly modeled. The resulting model can be used to simulate performance under a variety of different external and internal policy choices. In particular, the model can be used to study means of improving performance in response to externally imposed regulations

  9. Extracting aerobic system dynamics during unsupervised activities of daily living using wearable sensor machine learning models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beltrame, Thomas; Amelard, Robert; Wong, Alexander; Hughson, Richard L

    2018-02-01

    Physical activity levels are related through algorithms to the energetic demand, with no information regarding the integrity of the multiple physiological systems involved in the energetic supply. Longitudinal analysis of the oxygen uptake (V̇o 2 ) by wearable sensors in realistic settings might permit development of a practical tool for the study of the longitudinal aerobic system dynamics (i.e., V̇o 2 kinetics). This study evaluated aerobic system dynamics based on predicted V̇o 2 data obtained from wearable sensors during unsupervised activities of daily living (μADL). Thirteen healthy men performed a laboratory-controlled moderate exercise protocol and were monitored for ≈6 h/day for 4 days (μADL data). Variables derived from hip accelerometer (ACC HIP ), heart rate monitor, and respiratory bands during μADL were extracted and processed by a validated random forest regression model to predict V̇o 2 . The aerobic system analysis was based on the frequency-domain analysis of ACC HIP and predicted V̇o 2 data obtained during μADL. Optimal samples for frequency domain analysis (constrained to ≤0.01 Hz) were selected when ACC HIP was higher than 0.05 g at a given frequency (i.e., participants were active). The temporal characteristics of predicted V̇o 2 data during μADL correlated with the temporal characteristics of measured V̇o 2 data during laboratory-controlled protocol ([Formula: see text] = 0.82, P system dynamics can be investigated during unsupervised activities of daily living by wearable sensors. Although speculative, these algorithms have the potential to be incorporated into wearable systems for early detection of changes in health status in realistic environments by detecting changes in aerobic response dynamics. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The early detection of subclinical aerobic system impairments might be indicative of impaired physiological reserves that impact the capacity for physical activity. This study is the first to use wearable

  10. Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia

    2014-02-15

    Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. An analysis of household waste management policy using system dynamics modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inghels, Dirk; Dullaert, Wout

    2011-04-01

    This paper analyses the Flemish household waste management policy. Based on historical data from the period 1991-2006, literature reviews and interviews, both mathematical and descriptive relationships are derived that describe Flemish waste collection, reuse, recycling and disposal behaviour. This provides insights into how gross domestic product (GDP), population and selective collection behaviour have influenced household waste production and collection over time. These relationships are used to model the dynamic relationships underlying household waste management in Flanders by using a system dynamics (SD) modelling approach. Where most SD models in literature are conceptual and descriptive, in the present study a real-life case with both correlational and descriptive relationships was modelled for Flanders, a European region with an outstanding waste management track record. This model was used to evaluate the current Flemish household waste management policy based on the principles of the waste hierarchy, also referred as the Lansink ranking. The results show that Flemish household waste targets up to 2015 can be achieved by the current waste policy measures. It also shows the sensitivity of some key policy parameters such as prevention and reuse. Given the general nature of the model and its limited data requirements, the authors believe that the approach implemented in this model can also assist waste policy makers in other regions or countries to meet their policy targets by simulating the effect of their current and potential household waste policy measures.

  12. Mesoscale Modeling of Shock Wave Propagation and Dynamic Failure in Metallic Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dongare, Avinash

    2013-03-01

    The response of materials under conditions of thermomechanical extremes is very complex and involves damage creation and propagation, phase transformation, heat generation and transfer, etc. A principal challenge in predictive modeling of failure behavior is presented by the gap between the atomistic description of micromechanisms of the relevant processes and the macoscale response in continuum simulations/experiments. This difficulty can be approached through the development of a robust mesoscopic computational model that retains the relevant physics and is capable of representing the material behavior at time- and length-scales intermediate between the atomistic or continuum levels. Mesoscale models typically reduce a group of atoms by a mesoparticle system with much smaller number of collective degrees of freedom, and hence are often difficult to apply for problems such as heat transfer, phase transformation, and dissipation of mechanical energy during wave propagation. To achieve this goal, a novel mesoscopic model is being developed based on the idea of coarse-graining with the energetics defined for the particles based on interatomic potentials used in molecular dynamics (MD) simulations. The coarse-grained molecular dynamics simulations (CGMD) allows larger size systems and improved time-steps for simulations and thus able to extend the capabilities of MD simulations to model materials behavior at mesoscales. The successful application of the CGMD method is demonstrated by prediction of the phase-transformation, heat generation and wave-propagation behavior under the conditions of shock loading, as would be predicted using MD simulations.

  13. Model System Dynamics Infrastruktur BTS Ramah Lingkungan Daerah Rural untuk Optimalisasi Perhitungan ARPU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wahyu Sardjono

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Green Base transceiver station (BTS or known as remote BTS is a special BTS with IP technology-based that has a small capacity and takes low power consumption with standard features suitable for use in rural areas. BTS utilizes 100% solar energy as a source of energy. The infrastructure Green BTS is composed of high-tech devices which is able to save energy, environmentally friendly, small and lightweight. The high rate service calls and SMS on green BTS is caused by the absence of competition telecom operators at a site. The solution to this  problem needs to be done with system dynamics modeling approach with the aim to establish causality (cause and effect between the variables. The standard target of model pattern which has been changed on system dynamics can be used to demonstrate the behavior of the model between the number of subscribers, the availability of network capacity and ARPU (average revenue per user on the Green BTS site. On the changed standard target model, the actual revenue is placed as the actual event, the target revenue is as a target; the difference between the actual and target revenue is as gap, gap changes are as the pressure on the target and the corrective action taken against revenue as a corrective action. Based on simulation results, the standard model change targets can be developed by adding two negative loops (balancing loop as an alternative solution towards the achievement of revenue targets that have been set.

  14. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansen, A.D.; Iov, F.; Soerensen, Poul.; Cutululis, N.; Jauch, C.; Blaabjerg, F.

    2007-08-15

    This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risoe-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database built-op and developed during several national research projects, carried out at Risoe DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy and Aalborg University, in the period 2001-2007. The overall objective of these projects was to create a wind turbine model database able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. The main attention in the report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of the following wind turbine concepts: (1) Fixed speed active stall wind turbine concept (2) Variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept (3) Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine

  15. Modeling the pressure-strain correlation of turbulence: An invariant dynamical systems approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speziale, Charles G.; Sarkar, Sutanu; Gatski, Thomas B.

    1990-01-01

    The modeling of the pressure-strain correlation of turbulence is examined from a basic theoretical standpoint with a view toward developing improved second-order closure models. Invariance considerations along with elementary dynamical systems theory are used in the analysis of the standard hierarchy of closure models. In these commonly used models, the pressure-strain correlation is assumed to be a linear function of the mean velocity gradients with coefficients that depend algebraically on the anisotropy tensor. It is proven that for plane homogeneous turbulent flows the equilibrium structure of this hierarchy of models is encapsulated by a relatively simple model which is only quadratically nonlinear in the anisotropy tensor. This new quadratic model - the SSG model - is shown to outperform the Launder, Reece, and Rodi model (as well as more recent models that have a considerably more complex nonlinear structure) in a variety of homogeneous turbulent flows. Some deficiencies still remain for the description of rotating turbulent shear flows that are intrinsic to this general hierarchy of models and, hence, cannot be overcome by the mere introduction of more complex nonlinearities. It is thus argued that the recent trend of adding substantially more complex nonlinear terms containing the anisotropy tensor may be of questionable value in the modeling of the pressure-strain correlation. Possible alternative approaches are discussed briefly.

  16. Modelling the pressure-strain correlation of turbulence - An invariant dynamical systems approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Speziale, Charles G.; Sarkar, Sutanu; Gatski, Thomas B.

    1991-01-01

    The modeling of the pressure-strain correlation of turbulence is examined from a basic theoretical standpoint with a view toward developing improved second-order closure models. Invariance considerations along with elementary dynamical systems theory are used in the analysis of the standard hierarchy of closure models. In these commonly used models, the pressure-strain correlation is assumed to be a linear function of the mean velocity gradients with coefficients that depend algebraically on the anisotropy tensor. It is proven that for plane homogeneous turbulent flows the equilibrium structure of this hierarchy of models is encapsulated by a relatively simple model which is only quadratically nonlinear in the anisotropy tensor. This new quadratic model - the SSG model - is shown to outperform the Launder, Reece, and Rodi model (as well as more recent models that have a considerably more complex nonlinear structure) in a variety of homogeneous turbulent flows. Some deficiencies still remain for the description of rotating turbulent shear flows that are intrinsic to this general hierarchy of models and, hence, cannot be overcome by the mere introduction of more complex nonlinearities. It is thus argued that the recent trend of adding substantially more complex nonlinear terms containing the anisotropy tensor may be of questionable value in the modeling of the pressure-strain correlation. Possible alternative approaches are discussed briefly.

  17. Performance Management through a Balanced Scorecard - A SystemsDynamics Modelling Approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

    . Building mainly on [Kaplan, R. S. & Norton, D. P. (2008) 'Mastering the Management System, Harvard Business Review, January, 2008); Ferreira A. & Otley, D. (2005). The Design and Use of Management Control Systems: An Extended Framework for Analysis, Working Paper; and Sterman, J. D. (2000), Business......The object of this paper is to show how - normally separate practices - can be linked together to support the performance management system in a balanced scorecard framework. The monitor and learn of the strategy evaluation and the feedback process is important for the company to be on track...... Dynamics. System Thinking and Modelling for a Complex World] we provide evidence of companies to overlook the] we provide evidence of companies to overlook the possible benefits of combining and integrating several accounting practice into a single BSC-framework. We extend their thoughts by using a system...

  18. Atmospheric emissions modeling of energetic biomass alternatives using system dynamics approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szarka, N.; University of Concepcion; Kakucs, O.; Wolfbauer, J.; Bezama, A.

    2008-01-01

    To simulate the quantitative effects of regional biomass alternatives for energetic purpose (BfE) on air pollutant emissions, a system dynamics model was developed and applied for the EuRegion Austrian-Hungarian cross-border area. The dynamic simulation program Vensim R was used to build an overall regional model with economic, social and environmental sectors. Within this model, the here-introduced regional air pollution sub-model (RegAir) includes the important human-made emissions of 10 pollutants resulting from all relevant source sectors within the region investigated. Emissions from activities related to biomass production, transport, conversion and final energy consumption were built in detail. After building and calibrating the RegAir model, seven quantitative test scenarios were defined and implemented into the world. Through the scenarios simulation, effects on air emissions were followed and compared over time. The results of these simulations show a significant reduction of CO 2 emission, especially in cases where fossil fuel displacement in heating devices is achieved on the largest scale. On the contrary, traditional air pollutants increase by most BfE options. The results of the RegAir model simulations of BfE alternatives over two decades provide useful quantifications of various air emissions and identify the less pollutant BfE alternatives in the dynamic context of the relevant air pollution sources of the region. After minor structural modification and appropriate calibration, RegAir can be applied to other regions as well. However, it is stated that, to finally decide on the overall most-appropriate options at a regional level, other environmental as well as economic and social effects must be taken into consideration, being the latter the goal of the mentioned overall regional model which serves as a model frame to the RegAir tool. (author)

  19. Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, A.D.; Jauch, C.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2004-01-01

    The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create amodel database in different simulation tools....... Active stall wind turbine withinduction generator 2. Variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine with doubly-fed induction generator These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, controlstrategies, connection...... of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. For both these two concepts, control strategies are developed and implemented, their performance assessed and discussed by means of simulations....

  20. Master-slave system with force feedback based on dynamics of virtual model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nojima, Shuji; Hashimoto, Hideki

    1994-01-01

    A master-slave system can extend manipulating and sensing capabilities of a human operator to a remote environment. But the master-slave system has two serious problems: one is the mechanically large impedance of the system; the other is the mechanical complexity of the slave for complex remote tasks. These two problems reduce the efficiency of the system. If the slave has local intelligence, it can help the human operator by using its good points like fast calculation and large memory. The authors suggest that the slave is a dextrous hand with many degrees of freedom able to manipulate an object of known shape. It is further suggested that the dimensions of the remote work space be shared by the human operator and the slave. The effect of the large impedance of the system can be reduced in a virtual model, a physical model constructed in a computer with physical parameters as if it were in the real world. A method to determine the damping parameter dynamically for the virtual model is proposed. Experimental results show that this virtual model is better than the virtual model with fixed damping.

  1. Control Theory Concepts Applied to Retail Supply Chain: A System Dynamics Modeling Environment Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balaji Janamanchi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Control theory concepts have been long used to successfully manage and optimize complex systems. Using system dynamics (SD modeling methodology, which is continuous deterministic simulation modeling methodology, we apply control theory concepts to develop a suitable performance functional (or objective function that optimizes the performance of a retail supply chain. The focus is to develop insights for inventory management to prevent stock-outs and unfilled orders and to fill customer orders at the lowest possible cost to supply chain partners under different scenarios, in a two-player supplier-retailer supply chain. Moderate levels of inventory, defining appropriate performance functional, appear to be crucial in choosing the right policies for managing retail supply chain systems. The study also demonstrated how multiple objectives can be combined in a single performance functional (or objective function by carefully assigning suitable weights to the components of objectives based on their priority and the existence of possible trade off opportunities.

  2. Dynamic model of frequency control in Danish power system with large scale integration of wind power

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Basit, Abdul; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar

    2013-01-01

    This work evaluates the impact of large scale integration of wind power in future power systems when 50% of load demand can be met from wind power. The focus is on active power balance control, where the main source of power imbalance is an inaccurate wind speed forecast. In this study, a Danish...... power system model with large scale of wind power is developed and a case study for an inaccurate wind power forecast is investigated. The goal of this work is to develop an adequate power system model that depicts relevant dynamic features of the power plants and compensates for load generation...... imbalances, caused by inaccurate wind speed forecast, by an appropriate control of the active power production from power plants....

  3. Orion Active Thermal Control System Dynamic Modeling Using Simulink/MATLAB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Yuko, James

    2010-01-01

    This paper presents dynamic modeling of the crew exploration vehicle (Orion) active thermal control system (ATCS) using Simulink (Simulink, developed by The MathWorks). The model includes major components in ATCS, such as heat exchangers and radiator panels. The mathematical models of the heat exchanger and radiator are described first. Four different orbits were used to validate the radiator model. The current model results were compared with an independent Thermal Desktop (TD) (Thermal Desktop, PC/CAD-based thermal model builder, developed in Cullimore & Ring (C&R) Technologies) model results and showed good agreement for all orbits. In addition, the Orion ATCS performance was presented for three orbits and the current model results were compared with three sets of solutions- FloCAD (FloCAD, PC/CAD-based thermal/fluid model builder, developed in C&R Technologies) model results, SINDA/FLUINT (SINDA/FLUINT, a generalized thermal/fluid network-style solver ) model results, and independent Simulink model results. For each case, the fluid temperatures at every component on both the crew module and service module sides were plotted and compared. The overall agreement is reasonable for all orbits, with similar behavior and trends for the system. Some discrepancies exist because the control algorithm might vary from model to model. Finally, the ATCS performance for a 45-hr nominal mission timeline was simulated to demonstrate the capability of the model. The results show that the ATCS performs as expected and approximately 2.3 lb water was consumed in the sublimator within the 45 hr timeline before Orion docked at the International Space Station.

  4. Comparison of a nonlinear dynamic model of a piping system to test data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Blakely, K.D.; Howard, G.E.; Walton, W.B.; Johnson, B.A.; Chitty, D.E.

    1983-01-01

    Response of a nonlinear finite element model of the Heissdampfreaktor recirculation piping loop (URL) was compared to measured data, representing the physical benchmarking of a nonlinear model. Analysis-test comparisons of piping response are presented for snapback tests that induced extreme nonlinear behavior of the URL system. Nonlinearities in the system are due to twelve swaybraces (pipe supports) that possessed nonlinear force-deflection characteristics. These nonlinearities distorted system damping estimates made by using the half-power bandwidth method on Fourier transforms of measured accelerations, with the severity of distortion increasing with increasing degree of nonlinearity. Time domain methods, which are not so severely affected by the presence of nonlinearities, were used to compute system damping ratios. Nonlinear dynamic analyses were accurately and efficiently performed using the pseudo-force technique and the finite element program MSC/NASTRAN. Measured damping was incorporated into the model for snapback simulations. Acceleration time histories, acceleration Fourier transforms, and swaybrace force time histories of the nonlinear model, plus several linear models, were compared to test measurements. The nonlinear model predicted three-fourths of the measured peak accelerations to within 50%, half of the accelerations to within 25%, and one-fifth of the accelerations to within 10%. This nonlinear model predicted accelerations (in the time and frequency domains) and swaybrace forces much better than did any of the linear models, demonstrating the increased accuracy resulting from properly simulating nonlinear support behavior. In addition, earthquake response comparisons were made between the experimentally validated nonlinear model and a linear model. Significantly lower element stresses were predicted for the nonlinear model, indicating the potential usefulness of nonlinear simulations in piping design assessments. (orig.)

  5. A System Dynamics Model to Predict the Human Monocyte Response to Endotoxins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Álvarez

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available System dynamics is a powerful tool that allows modeling of complex and highly networked systems such as those found in the human immune system. We have developed a model that reproduces how the exposure of human monocytes to lipopolysaccharides (LPSs induces an inflammatory state characterized by high production of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα, which is rapidly modulated to enter into a tolerant state, known as endotoxin tolerance (ET. The model contains two subsystems with a total of six states, seven flows, two auxiliary variables, and 14 parameters that interact through six differential and nine algebraic equations. The parameters were estimated and optimized to obtain a model that fits the experimental data obtained from human monocytes treated with various LPS doses. In contrast to publications on other animal models, stimulation of human monocytes with super-low-dose LPSs did not alter the response to a second LPSs challenge, neither inducing ET, nor enhancing the inflammatory response. Moreover, the model confirms the low production of TNFα and increased levels of C–C motif ligand 2 when monocytes exhibit a tolerant state similar to that of patients with sepsis. At present, the model can help us better understand the ET response and might offer new insights on sepsis diagnostics and prognosis by examining the monocyte response to endotoxins in patients with sepsis.

  6. A System Dynamics Model to Predict the Human Monocyte Response to Endotoxins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Álvarez, Enrique; Toledano, Víctor; Morilla, Fernando; Hernández-Jiménez, Enrique; Cubillos-Zapata, Carolina; Varela-Serrano, Aníbal; Casas-Martín, José; Avendaño-Ortiz, José; Aguirre, Luis A.; Arnalich, Francisco; Maroun-Eid, Charbel; Martín-Quirós, Alejandro; Quintana Díaz, Manuel; López-Collazo, Eduardo

    2017-01-01

    System dynamics is a powerful tool that allows modeling of complex and highly networked systems such as those found in the human immune system. We have developed a model that reproduces how the exposure of human monocytes to lipopolysaccharides (LPSs) induces an inflammatory state characterized by high production of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα), which is rapidly modulated to enter into a tolerant state, known as endotoxin tolerance (ET). The model contains two subsystems with a total of six states, seven flows, two auxiliary variables, and 14 parameters that interact through six differential and nine algebraic equations. The parameters were estimated and optimized to obtain a model that fits the experimental data obtained from human monocytes treated with various LPS doses. In contrast to publications on other animal models, stimulation of human monocytes with super-low-dose LPSs did not alter the response to a second LPSs challenge, neither inducing ET, nor enhancing the inflammatory response. Moreover, the model confirms the low production of TNFα and increased levels of C–C motif ligand 2 when monocytes exhibit a tolerant state similar to that of patients with sepsis. At present, the model can help us better understand the ET response and might offer new insights on sepsis diagnostics and prognosis by examining the monocyte response to endotoxins in patients with sepsis. PMID:28824640

  7. Dynamic Modeling of a Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell System using Empirical Data and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza

    2013-01-01

    an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...... hydrogen, which is difficult and energy consuming to store and transport. The models include thermal equilibrium models of the individual components of the system. Models of the heating and cooling of the gas flows between components are also modeled and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System models...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...

  8. Improved decision-making on irrigation farming in arid zones using a system dynamics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin de Wit

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available The Sandveld region in the Western Cape is a low rainfall area dominated by agricultural production using groundwater resources. The rise in agricultural production in the Sandveld has led to questions regarding the region's ecological sustainability. We developed a system dynamics model for the Sandveld system which captures land-use change, agricultural production, and groundwater abstraction and recharge. Using this model, we find little evidence that pressures on livelihoods result, either currently or in the immediate future, from ecological feedback effects. The model does indicate that the highest risks are associated with the financial viability of agriculture, in its present form, in the region. With lower margins, a drive towards economies of scale in agricultural production is more likely in the future. This process has had severe implications in some sectors already, with a 39% decrease in the number of potato producers in the Sandveld region between 2003 and 2009. These results highlight that an integrated approach to agricultural, economic and environmental management and planning is needed to capture the economic and ecological complexity and dynamics of the Sandveld system.

  9. Dynamic modeling of gas turbines in integrated gasification fuel cell systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maclay, James Davenport

    2009-12-01

    Solid oxide fuel cell-gas turbine (SOFC-GT) hybrid systems for use in integrated gasification fuel cell (IGFC) systems operating on coal will stretch existing fossil fuel reserves, generate power with less environmental impact, while having a cost of electricity advantage over most competing technologies. However, the dynamic performance of a SOFC-GT in IGFC applications has not been previously studied in detail. Of particular importance is how the turbo-machinery will be designed, controlled and operated in such applications; this is the focus of the current work. Perturbation and dynamic response analyses using numerical SimulinkRTM models indicate that compressor surge is the predominant concern for safe dynamic turbo-machinery operation while shaft over-speed and excessive turbine inlet temperatures are secondary concerns. Fuel cell temperature gradients and anode-cathode differential pressures were found to be the greatest concerns for safe dynamic fuel cell operation. Two control strategies were compared, that of constant gas turbine shaft speed and constant fuel cell temperature, utilizing a variable speed gas turbine. Neither control strategy could eliminate all vulnerabilities during dynamic operation. Constant fuel cell temperature control ensures safe fuel cell operation, while constant speed control does not. However, compressor surge is more likely with constant fuel cell temperature control than with constant speed control. Design strategies that provide greater surge margin while utilizing constant fuel cell temperature control include increasing turbine design mass flow and decreasing turbine design inlet pressure, increasing compressor design pressure ratio and decreasing compressor design mass flow, decreasing plenum volume, decreasing shaft moment of inertia, decreasing fuel cell pressure drop, maintaining constant compressor inlet air temperature. However, these strategies in some cases incur an efficiency penalty. A broad comparison of cycles

  10. Dynamic modeling of a methanol reformer-PEMFC stack system for analysis and design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stamps, Andrew T.; Gatzke, Edward P.

    Considerable effort has been devoted to the modeling of proton exchange membrane fuel cells (PEMFCs) as well as fuel processing units (FPUs). Many of these models consider only steady state analysis; the available dynamic models typically operate only in simple open loop configurations. However, a liquid fuel processor/PEMFC stack power unit for vehicular application will require tight integration and regulation of multiple units in order to function economically and reliably. Moreover, vehicular operation is inherently dynamic in nature, so traditional steady state process design approaches will be of limited value. This work addresses a minimum set of subcomponents necessary for modeling an overall vehicular power system. Additionally, the integration and control of these sub-units is addressed so that the unit can be operated as needed in a vehicular application by following a reference power trajectory. A number of design and operational parameters can be adjusted and the impact on system performance studied. Based on this preliminary analysis, heuristics are developed for optimal operation and design.

  11. Identification of gene interactions in fungal-plant symbiosis through discrete dynamical system modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeles, J G C; Ouyang, Z; Aguirre, A M; Lammers, P J; Song, M

    2009-09-01

    Fungal-plant root associations involve nutrient exchanges, between the partners and the soil, particularly phosphate, that benefit both organisms. Discrete dynamical system (DDS) models are reconstructed to capture gene regulation in the arbuscular mycorrhizae Glomus versiforme-Medicago trunculata root symbiosis. Previously published time-course gene expression data derived from various days post-inoculation were clustered to identify genes co-regulated in mycorrhizal roots. Uncolonised roots grown with high phosphate provide a key nutritional control condition. First-order linear DDS models were created using a data-driven method to fit to the observed gene expression data. The result of the modelling constitutes active gene interactions in the regulatory network of the plant root at 8, 15, 22, 31 and 36 days post-inoculation. These genes are involved in basic metabolism, development, oxidative stress and defense pathways, and show consistent dynamic behaviours in the model. The functions of previously unannotated genes were further elucidated from the developed system maps.

  12. A genetic-based neuro-fuzzy approach for modeling and control of dynamical systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farag, W A; Quintana, V H; Lambert-Torres, G

    1998-01-01

    Linguistic modeling of complex irregular systems constitutes the heart of many control and decision making systems, and fuzzy logic represents one of the most effective algorithms to build such linguistic models. In this paper, a linguistic (qualitative) modeling approach is proposed. The approach combines the merits of the fuzzy logic theory, neural networks, and genetic algorithms (GA's). The proposed model is presented in a fuzzy-neural network (FNN) form which can handle both quantitative (numerical) and qualitative (linguistic) knowledge. The learning algorithm of an FNN is composed of three phases. The first phase is used to find the initial membership functions of the fuzzy model. In the second phase, a new algorithm is developed and used to extract the linguistic-fuzzy rules. In the third phase, a multiresolutional dynamic genetic algorithm (MRD-GA) is proposed and used for optimized tuning of membership functions of the proposed model. Two well-known benchmarks are used to evaluate the performance of the proposed modeling approach, and compare it with other modeling approaches.

  13. Comprehensive solutions to the Bloch equations and dynamical models for open two-level systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Thomas E.

    2018-01-01

    The Bloch equation and its variants constitute the fundamental dynamical model for arbitrary two-level systems. Many important processes, including those in more complicated systems, can be modeled and understood through the two-level approximation. It is therefore of widespread relevance, especially as it relates to understanding dissipative processes in current cutting-edge applications of quantum mechanics. Although the Bloch equation has been the subject of considerable analysis in the 70 years since its inception, there is still, perhaps surprisingly, significant work that can be done. This paper extends the scope of previous analyses. It provides a framework for more fully understanding the dynamics of dissipative two-level systems. A solution is derived that is compact, tractable, and completely general, in contrast to previous results. Any solution of the Bloch equation depends on three roots of a cubic polynomial that are crucial to the time dependence of the system. The roots are typically only sketched out qualitatively, with no indication of their dependence on the physical parameters of the problem. Degenerate roots, which modify the solutions, have been ignored altogether. Here the roots are obtained explicitly in terms of a single real-valued root that is expressed as a simple function of the system parameters. For the conventional Bloch equation, a simple graphical representation of this root is presented that makes evident the explicit time dependence of the system for each point in the parameter space. Several intuitive, visual models of system dynamics are developed. A Euclidean coordinate system is identified in which any generalized Bloch equation is separable, i.e., the sum of commuting rotation and relaxation operators. The time evolution in this frame is simply a rotation followed by relaxation at modified rates that play a role similar to the standard longitudinal and transverse rates. These rates are functions of the applied field, which

  14. A nuclear fuel cycle system dynamic model for spent fuel storage options

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brinton, Samuel; Kazimi, Mujid

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Used nuclear fuel management requires a dynamic system analysis study due to its socio-technical complexity. • Economic comparison of local, regional, and national storage options is limited due to the public financial information. • Local and regional options of used nuclear fuel management are found to be the most economic means of storage. - Abstract: The options for used nuclear fuel storage location and affected parameters such as economic liabilities are currently a focus of several high level studies. A variety of nuclear fuel cycle system analysis models are available for such a task. The application of nuclear fuel cycle system dynamics models for waste management options is important to life-cycle impact assessment. The recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Committee on America’s Nuclear Future led to increased focus on long periods of spent fuel storage [1]. This motivated further investigation of the location dependency of used nuclear fuel in the parameters of economics, environmental impact, and proliferation risk. Through a review of available literature and interactions with each of the programs available, comparisons of post-reactor fuel storage and handling options will be evaluated based on the aforementioned parameters and a consensus of preferred system metrics and boundary conditions will be provided. Specifically, three options of local, regional, and national storage were studied. The preliminary product of this research is the creation of a system dynamics tool known as the Waste Management Module (WMM) which provides an easy to use interface for education on fuel cycle waste management economic impacts. Initial results of baseline cases point to positive benefits of regional storage locations with local regional storage options continuing to offer the lowest cost

  15. EARLY DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: PINNING DOWN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE NICE MODEL

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, Michael E.

    2010-01-01

    In the recent years, the 'Nice' model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the solar system by evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration. Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial configuration from which the solar system started out. Recent work has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. In this paper, we use analytical arguments, as well as self-consistent numerical N-body simulations to identify fully resonant initial conditions, whose dynamical evolution is characterized by an eccentric phase of the ice giants, as well as planetary scattering. We find a total of eight such initial conditions. Four of these primordial states are compatible with the canonical 'Nice' model, while the others imply slightly different evolutions. The results presented here should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.

  16. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. A Pathophysiological Model-Driven Communication for Dynamic Distributed Medical Best Practice Guidance Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hosseini, Mohammad; Jiang, Yu; Wu, Poliang; Berlin, Richard B; Ren, Shangping; Sha, Lui

    2016-11-01

    There is a great divide between rural and urban areas, particularly in medical emergency care. Although medical best practice guidelines exist and are in hospital handbooks, they are often lengthy and difficult to apply clinically. The challenges are exaggerated for doctors in rural areas and emergency medical technicians (EMT) during patient transport. In this paper, we propose the concept of distributed executable medical best practice guidance systems to assist adherence to best practice from the time that a patient first presents at a rural hospital, through diagnosis and ambulance transfer to arrival and treatment at a regional tertiary hospital center. We codify complex medical knowledge in the form of simplified distributed executable disease automata, from the thin automata at rural hospitals to the rich automata in the regional center hospitals. However, a main challenge is how to efficiently and safely synchronize distributed best practice models as the communication among medical facilities, devices, and professionals generates a large number of messages. This complex problem of patient diagnosis and transport from rural to center facility is also fraught with many uncertainties and changes resulting in a high degree of dynamism. A critically ill patient's medical conditions can change abruptly in addition to changes in the wireless bandwidth during the ambulance transfer. Such dynamics have yet to be addressed in existing literature on telemedicine. To address this situation, we propose a pathophysiological model-driven message exchange communication architecture that ensures the real-time and dynamic requirements of synchronization among distributed emergency best practice models are met in a reliable and safe manner. Taking the signs, symptoms, and progress of stroke patients transported across a geographically distributed healthcare network as the motivating use case, we implement our communication system and apply it to our developed best practice

  18. Utilization of mesoscale atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC as a meteorological forecast model in nuclear emergency response system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi

    1997-01-01

    It is advantageous for an emergency response system to have a forecast function to provide a time margin for countermeasures in case of a nuclear accident. We propose to apply an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC (Prognostic HYdroStatic model Including turbulence Closure model) as a meteorological forecast model in the emergency system. The model uses GPV data which are the output of the numerical weather forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency as the initial and boundary conditions. The roles of PHYSIC are the interface between GPV data and the emergency response system and the forecast of local atmospheric phenomena within the model domain. This paper presents a scheme to use PHYSIC to forecast local wind and its performance. Horizontal grid number of PHYSIC is fixed to 50 x 50, whereas the mesh and domain sizes are determined in consideration of topography causing local winds at an objective area. The model performance was examined for the introduction of GPV data through initial and boundary conditions and the predictability of local wind field and atmospheric stability. The model performance was on an acceptable level as the forecast model. It was also recognized that improvement of cloud calculation was necessary in simulating atmospheric stability. (author)

  19. Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.

    2014-12-01

    The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for

  20. Parametric and cadaveric models of lumbar flexion instability and flexion restricting dynamic stabilization system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fielding, Louis C; Alamin, Todd F; Voronov, Leonard I; Carandang, Gerard; Havey, Robert M; Patwardhan, Avinash G

    2013-12-01

    Development of a dynamic stabilization system often involves costly and time-consuming design iterations, testing and computational modeling. The aims of this study were (1) develop a simple parametric model of lumbar flexion instability and use this model to identify the appropriate stiffness of a flexion restricting stabilization system (FRSS), and (2) in a cadaveric experiment, validate the predictive value of the parametric model. Literature was surveyed for typical parameters of intact and destabilized spines: stiffness in the high flexibility zone (HFZ) and high stiffness zone, and size of the HFZ. These values were used to construct a bilinear parametric model of flexion kinematics of intact and destabilized lumbar spines. FRSS implantation was modeled by iteratively superimposing constant flexion stiffnesses onto the parametric model. Five cadaveric lumbar spines were tested intact; after L4-L5 destabilization (nucleotomy, midline decompression); and after FRSS implantation. Specimens were loaded in flexion/extension (8 Nm/6 Nm) with 400 N follower load to characterize kinematics for comparison with the parametric model. To accomplish the goal of reducing ROM to intact levels and increasing stiffness to approximately 50 % greater than intact levels, flexion stiffness contributed by the FRSS was determined to be 0.5 Nm/deg using the parametric model. In biomechanical testing, the FRSS restored ROM of the destabilized segment from 146 ± 13 to 105 ± 21 % of intact, and stiffness in the HFZ from 41 ± 7 to 135 ± 38 % of intact. Testing demonstrated excellent predictive value of the parametric model, and that the FRSS attained the desired biomechanical performance developed with the model. A simple parametric model may allow efficient optimization of kinematic design parameters.

  1. Forest-fire model as a supercritical dynamic model in financial systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Deokjae; Kim, Jae-Young; Lee, Jeho; Kahng, B.

    2015-02-01

    Recently large-scale cascading failures in complex systems have garnered substantial attention. Such extreme events have been treated as an integral part of self-organized criticality (SOC). Recent empirical work has suggested that some extreme events systematically deviate from the SOC paradigm, requiring a different theoretical framework. We shed additional theoretical light on this possibility by studying financial crisis. We build our model of financial crisis on the well-known forest fire model in scale-free networks. Our analysis shows a nontrivial scaling feature indicating supercritical behavior, which is independent of system size. Extreme events in the supercritical state result from bursting of a fat bubble, seeds of which are sown by a protracted period of a benign financial environment with few shocks. Our findings suggest that policymakers can control the magnitude of financial meltdowns by keeping the economy operating within reasonable duration of a benign environment.

  2. System dynamics model of taxi management in metropolises: Economic and environmental implications for Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Hao; Zhang, Kai; Chen, Junhua; Wang, Zhifeng; Li, Guijun; Yang, Yuqi

    2018-05-01

    Taxis are an important component of urban passenger transport. Research on the daily dispatching of taxis and the utility of governmental management is important for the improvement of passenger travel, taxi driver income and environmental impacts. However, urban taxi management is a complex and dynamic system that is affected by many factors, and positive/negative feedback relationships and nonlinear interactions exist between each subsystem and variable. Therefore, conventional research methods can hardly depict its characteristics comprehensively. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a system dynamics model of urban taxi management, in which the empty-loaded rate and total demand are selected as key factors affecting taxi dispatching, and the impacts of taxi fares on driver income and travel demand are taken into account. After the validation of the model, taxi operations data derived from a prior analysis of origin-destination data of Beijing taxis are used as input for the model to simulate the taxi market in Beijing. Finally, economic and environmental implications are provided for the government to optimise policies on taxi management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Dynamic modeling and evaluation of solid oxide fuel cell - combined heat and power system operating strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nanaeda, Kimihiro; Mueller, Fabian; Brouwer, Jacob; Samuelsen, Scott

    Operating strategies of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) combined heat and power (CHP) systems are developed and evaluated from a utility, and end-user perspective using a fully integrated SOFC-CHP system dynamic model that resolves the physical states, thermal integration and overall efficiency of the system. The model can be modified for any SOFC-CHP system, but the present analysis is applied to a hotel in southern California based on measured electric and heating loads. Analysis indicates that combined heat and power systems can be operated to benefit both the end-users and the utility, providing more efficient electric generation as well as grid ancillary services, namely dispatchable urban power. Design and operating strategies considered in the paper include optimal sizing of the fuel cell, thermal energy storage to dispatch heat, and operating the fuel cell to provide flexible grid power. Analysis results indicate that with a 13.1% average increase in price-of-electricity (POE), the system can provide the grid with a 50% operating range of dispatchable urban power at an overall thermal efficiency of 80%. This grid-support operating mode increases the operational flexibility of the SOFC-CHP system, which may make the technology an important utility asset for accommodating the increased penetration of intermittent renewable power.

  4. Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dong, S.

    2000-01-01

    Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995

  5. Mathematical Modeling and Dynamic Simulation of Metabolic Reaction Systems Using Metabolome Time Series Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sriyudthsak, Kansuporn; Shiraishi, Fumihide; Hirai, Masami Yokota

    2016-01-01

    The high-throughput acquisition of metabolome data is greatly anticipated for the complete understanding of cellular metabolism in living organisms. A variety of analytical technologies have been developed to acquire large-scale metabolic profiles under different biological or environmental conditions. Time series data are useful for predicting the most likely metabolic pathways because they provide important information regarding the accumulation of metabolites, which implies causal relationships in the metabolic reaction network. Considerable effort has been undertaken to utilize these data for constructing a mathematical model merging system properties and quantitatively characterizing a whole metabolic system in toto. However, there are technical difficulties between benchmarking the provision and utilization of data. Although, hundreds of metabolites can be measured, which provide information on the metabolic reaction system, simultaneous measurement of thousands of metabolites is still challenging. In addition, it is nontrivial to logically predict the dynamic behaviors of unmeasurable metabolite concentrations without sufficient information on the metabolic reaction network. Yet, consolidating the advantages of advancements in both metabolomics and mathematical modeling remain to be accomplished. This review outlines the conceptual basis of and recent advances in technologies in both the research fields. It also highlights the potential for constructing a large-scale mathematical model by estimating model parameters from time series metabolome data in order to comprehensively understand metabolism at the systems level.

  6. A system dynamics model for stock and flow of tritium in fusion power plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kasada, Ryuta, E-mail: r-kasada@iae.kyoto-u.ac.jp [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Kwon, Saerom [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki-ken 319-1195 (Japan); Konishi, Satoshi [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Sakamoto, Yoshiteru; Yamanishi, Toshihiko; Tobita, Kenji [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Rokkasho-mura, Kamikita-gun, Aomori-ken 039-3212 (Japan)

    2015-10-15

    Highlights: • System dynamics model of tritium fuel cycle was developed for analyzing stock and flow of tritium in fusion power plants. • Sensitivity of tritium build-up to breeding ratio parameters has been assessed to two plant concepts having 3 GW and 1.5 GW fusion power. • D-D start-up absolutely without initial loading of tritium is possible for both of the 3 GW and 1.5 GW fusion power plant concepts. • Excess stock of tritium is generated by the steady state operation with the value of tritium breeding ratio over unity. - Abstract: In order to analyze self-efficiency of tritium fuel cycle (TFC) and share the systems thinking of TFC among researchers and engineers in the vast area of fusion reactor technology, we develop a system dynamics (SD) TFC model using a commercial software STELLA. The SD-TFC model is illustrated as a pipe diagram which consists of tritium stocks, such as plasma, fuel clean up, isotope separation, fueling with storage and blanket, and pipes connecting among them. By using this model, we survey a possibility of D-D start-up without initial loading of tritium on two kinds of fusion plant having different plasma parameters. The D-D start-up scenario can reduce the necessity of initial loading of tritium through the production in plasma by D-D reaction and in breeding blanket by D-D neutron. The model is also used for considering operation scenario to avoid excess stock of tritium which must be produced at tritium breeding ratio over unity.

  7. System Dynamics Model and Simulation of Employee Work-Family Conflict in the Construction Industry

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Guangdong; Duan, Kaifeng; Zuo, Jian; Yang, Jianlin; Wen, Shiping

    2016-01-01

    The construction industry is a demanding work environment where employees’ work-family conflict is particularly prominent. This conflict has a significant impact on job and family satisfaction and performance of employees. In order to analyze the dynamic evolution of construction industry employee’s work-family conflict between work and family domains, this paper constructs a bi-directional dynamic model framework of work-family conflict by referring to the relevant literature. Consequently, a system dynamics model of employee’s work-family conflict in the construction industry is established, and a simulation is conducted. The simulation results indicate that construction industry employees experience work interference with family conflict (WIFC) levels which are significantly greater than the family interference with work conflict (FIWC) levels. This study also revealed that improving work flexibility and organizational support can have a positive impact on the satisfaction and performance of construction industry employees from a work and family perspective. Furthermore, improving family support can only significantly improve employee job satisfaction. PMID:27801857

  8. System Dynamics Model and Simulation of Employee Work-Family Conflict in the Construction Industry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Guangdong; Duan, Kaifeng; Zuo, Jian; Yang, Jianlin; Wen, Shiping

    2016-10-28

    The construction industry is a demanding work environment where employees' work-family conflict is particularly prominent. This conflict has a significant impact on job and family satisfaction and performance of employees. In order to analyze the dynamic evolution of construction industry employee's work-family conflict between work and family domains, this paper constructs a bi-directional dynamic model framework of work-family conflict by referring to the relevant literature. Consequently, a system dynamics model of employee's work-family conflict in the construction industry is established, and a simulation is conducted. The simulation results indicate that construction industry employees experience work interference with family conflict (WIFC) levels which are significantly greater than the family interference with work conflict (FIWC) levels. This study also revealed that improving work flexibility and organizational support can have a positive impact on the satisfaction and performance of construction industry employees from a work and family perspective. Furthermore, improving family support can only significantly improve employee job satisfaction.

  9. System Dynamics Model and Simulation of Employee Work-Family Conflict in the Construction Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guangdong Wu

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The construction industry is a demanding work environment where employees’ work-family conflict is particularly prominent. This conflict has a significant impact on job and family satisfaction and performance of employees. In order to analyze the dynamic evolution of construction industry employee’s work-family conflict between work and family domains, this paper constructs a bi-directional dynamic model framework of work-family conflict by referring to the relevant literature. Consequently, a system dynamics model of employee’s work-family conflict in the construction industry is established, and a simulation is conducted. The simulation results indicate that construction industry employees experience work interference with family conflict (WIFC levels which are significantly greater than the family interference with work conflict (FIWC levels. This study also revealed that improving work flexibility and organizational support can have a positive impact on the satisfaction and performance of construction industry employees from a work and family perspective. Furthermore, improving family support can only significantly improve employee job satisfaction.

  10. Final report LDRD project 105816 : model reduction of large dynamic systems with localized nonlinearities.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lehoucq, Richard B.; Segalman, Daniel Joseph; Hetmaniuk, Ulrich L. (University of Washington, Seattle, WA); Dohrmann, Clark R.

    2009-10-01

    Advanced computing hardware and software written to exploit massively parallel architectures greatly facilitate the computation of extremely large problems. On the other hand, these tools, though enabling higher fidelity models, have often resulted in much longer run-times and turn-around-times in providing answers to engineering problems. The impediments include smaller elements and consequently smaller time steps, much larger systems of equations to solve, and the inclusion of nonlinearities that had been ignored in days when lower fidelity models were the norm. The research effort reported focuses on the accelerating the analysis process for structural dynamics though combinations of model reduction and mitigation of some factors that lead to over-meshing.

  11. System dynamics model developement for R and D budget allocation strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kwack, S. M.; Kim, D. H.; Lee, Y. S.; Jung, M. T.

    2003-01-01

    A computer simulation model was developed for R and D budget allocation problems that usually contain very complex and non-linear social issues. The System Dynamics approach was employed, which is proper to complex and non-linear social problem modeling. An issue of budget allocation to each step in five research areas was analyzed for an application example. The base scenario, that assumes to allocate a large portion of budget to demonstration step, was found to have a weakness in long-term sense. To overcome this weakness, some other better alternatives were recommended through the analysis. In addition, this paper suggests the ways to utilize the updated model in the future

  12. Designing a mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aalaei, Amin; Davoudpour, Hamid

    2012-11-01

    This article presents designing a new mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system with an extensive coverage of important manufacturing features consideration of multiple plants location, multi-markets allocation, multi-period planning horizons with demand and part mix variation, machine capacity, and the main constraints are demand of markets satisfaction in each period, machine availability, machine time-capacity, worker assignment, available time of worker, production volume for each plant and the amounts allocated to each market. The aim of the proposed model is to minimize holding and outsourcing costs, inter-cell material handling cost, external transportation cost, procurement & maintenance and overhead cost of machines, setup cost, reconfiguration cost of machines installation and removal, hiring, firing and salary worker costs. Aimed to prove the potential benefits of such a design, presented an example is shown using a proposed model.

  13. Dynamic modeling of genetic networks using genetic algorithm and S-system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kikuchi, Shinichi; Tominaga, Daisuke; Arita, Masanori; Takahashi, Katsutoshi; Tomita, Masaru

    2003-03-22

    The modeling of system dynamics of genetic networks, metabolic networks or signal transduction cascades from time-course data is formulated as a reverse-problem. Previous studies focused on the estimation of only network structures, and they were ineffective in inferring a network structure with feedback loops. We previously proposed a method to predict not only the network structure but also its dynamics using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and an S-system formalism. However, it could predict only a small number of parameters and could rarely obtain essential structures. In this work, we propose a unified extension of the basic method. Notable improvements are as follows: (1) an additional term in its evaluation function that aims at eliminating futile parameters; (2) a crossover method called Simplex Crossover (SPX) to improve its optimization ability; and (3) a gradual optimization strategy to increase the number of predictable parameters. The proposed method is implemented as a C program called PEACE1 (Predictor by Evolutionary Algorithms and Canonical Equations 1). Its performance was compared with the basic method. The comparison showed that: (1) the convergence rate increased about 5-fold; (2) the optimization speed was raised about 1.5-fold; and (3) the number of predictable parameters was increased about 5-fold. Moreover, we successfully inferred the dynamics of a small genetic network constructed with 60 parameters for 5 network variables and feedback loops using only time-course data of gene expression.

  14. Merging spatially variant physical process models under an optimized systems dynamics framework.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cain, William O. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Pierce, Suzanne A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll

    2007-10-01

    The complexity of water resource issues, its interconnectedness to other systems, and the involvement of competing stakeholders often overwhelm decision-makers and inhibit the creation of clear management strategies. While a range of modeling tools and procedures exist to address these problems, they tend to be case specific and generally emphasize either a quantitative and overly analytic approach or present a qualitative dialogue-based approach lacking the ability to fully explore consequences of different policy decisions. The integration of these two approaches is needed to drive toward final decisions and engender effective outcomes. Given these limitations, the Computer Assisted Dispute Resolution system (CADRe) was developed to aid in stakeholder inclusive resource planning. This modeling and negotiation system uniquely addresses resource concerns by developing a spatially varying system dynamics model as well as innovative global optimization search techniques to maximize outcomes from participatory dialogues. Ultimately, the core system architecture of CADRe also serves as the cornerstone upon which key scientific innovation and challenges can be addressed.

  15. Integrated decision-making about housing, energy and wellbeing: a qualitative system dynamics model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macmillan, Alexandra; Davies, Michael; Shrubsole, Clive; Luxford, Naomi; May, Neil; Chiu, Lai Fong; Trutnevyte, Evelina; Bobrova, Yekatherina; Chalabi, Zaid

    2016-03-08

    The UK government has an ambitious goal to reduce carbon emissions from the housing stock through energy efficiency improvements. This single policy goal is a strong driver for change in the housing system, but comes with positive and negative "unintended consequences" across a broad range of outcomes for health, equity and environmental sustainability. The resulting policies are also already experiencing under-performance through a failure to consider housing as a complex system. This research aimed to move from considering disparate objectives of housing policies in isolation to mapping the links between environmental, economic, social and health outcomes as a complex system. We aimed to support a broad range of housing policy stakeholders to improve their understanding of housing as a complex system through a collaborative learning process. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop a qualitative causal theory linking housing, energy and wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were followed by two interactive workshops to develop the model, involving representatives from national and local government, housing industries, non-government organisations, communities and academia. More than 50 stakeholders from 37 organisations participated. The process resulted in a shared understanding of wellbeing as it relates to housing; an agreed set of criteria against which to assess to future policy options; and a comprehensive set of causal loop diagrams describing the housing, energy and wellbeing system. The causal loop diagrams cover seven interconnected themes: community connection and quality of neighbourhoods; energy efficiency and climate change; fuel poverty and indoor temperature; household crowding; housing affordability; land ownership, value and development patterns; and ventilation and indoor air pollution. The collaborative learning process and the model have been useful for shifting the thinking of a wide range of housing stakeholders towards a more

  16. Dynamic Modeling, Control, and Analysis of a Solar Water Pumping System for Libya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muamer M. Shebani

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, one of the suitable solar photovoltaic (PV applications is a water pumping system. The simplest solar PV pumping system consists of PV array, DC-DC converter, DC motor, and water pump. In this paper, water pumping system sizing for Libya is evaluated based on a daily demand using HOMER software, and dynamic modeling of a solar PV water pumping system using a Permanent Magnet DC (PMDC motor is presented in Matlab/Simulink environment. The system performance with maximum power point tracking (MPPT based on Fractional Open Circuit Voltage (FOCV is evaluated with and without a battery storage system. In some applications, a rated voltage is needed to connect a PMDC motor to a PV array through a DC-DC converter and in other applications the input voltage can vary. The evaluation of the system is based on the performance during a change in solar irradiation. Using Matlab/Simulink, simulation results are assessed to see the efficiency of the system when it is operating at a specific speed or at the MPPT. The results show that an improvement in the system efficiency can be achieved when the PMDC motor is running at a specific speed rather than at the peak PV power point.

  17. Developing a system dynamics model to analyse environmental problem in construction site

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haron, Fatin Fasehah; Hawari, Nurul Nazihah

    2017-11-01

    This study aims to develop a system dynamics model at a construction site to analyse the impact of environmental problem. Construction sites may cause damages to the environment, and interference in the daily lives of residents. A proper environmental management system must be used to reduce pollution, enhance bio-diversity, conserve water, respect people and their local environment, measure performance and set targets for the environment and sustainability. This study investigates the damaging impact normally occur during the construction stage. Environmental problem will cause costly mistake in project implementation, either because of the environmental damages that are likely to arise during project implementation, or because of modification that may be required subsequently in order to make the action environmentally acceptable. Thus, findings from this study has helped in significantly reducing the damaging impact towards environment, and improve the environmental management system performance at construction site.

  18. Design and Optimization of Intelligent Service Robot Suspension System Using Dynamic Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Choi, Seong Hoon; Park, Tae Won; Lee, Soo Ho; Jung, Sung Pil; Jun, Kab Jin; Yoon, J. W.

    2010-01-01

    Recently, an intelligent service robot is being developed for use in guiding and providing information to visitors about the building at public institutions. The intelligent robot has a sensor at the bottom to recognize its location. Four wheels, which are arranged in the form of a lozenge, support the robot. This robot cannot be operated on uneven ground because its driving parts are attached to its main body that contains the important internal components. Continuous impact with the ground can change the precise positions of the components and weaken the connection between each structural part. In this paper, the design of the suspension system for such a robot is described. The dynamic model of the robot is created, and the driving characteristics of the robot with the designed suspension system are simulated. Additionally, the suspension system is optimized to reduce the impact for the robot components

  19. Initial virtual flight test for a dynamically similar aircraft model with control augmentation system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linliang Guo

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available To satisfy the validation requirements of flight control law for advanced aircraft, a wind tunnel based virtual flight testing has been implemented in a low speed wind tunnel. A 3-degree-of-freedom gimbal, ventrally installed in the model, was used in conjunction with an actively controlled dynamically similar model of aircraft, which was equipped with the inertial measurement unit, attitude and heading reference system, embedded computer and servo-actuators. The model, which could be rotated around its center of gravity freely by the aerodynamic moments, together with the flow field, operator and real time control system made up the closed-loop testing circuit. The model is statically unstable in longitudinal direction, and it can fly stably in wind tunnel with the function of control augmentation of the flight control laws. The experimental results indicate that the model responds well to the operator’s instructions. The response of the model in the tests shows reasonable agreement with the simulation results. The difference of response of angle of attack is less than 0.5°. The effect of stability augmentation and attitude control law was validated in the test, meanwhile the feasibility of virtual flight test technique treated as preliminary evaluation tool for advanced flight vehicle configuration research was also verified.

  20. Topology of sustainable management in dynamical Earth system models with desirable states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heitzig, J.; Kittel, T.

    2015-03-01

    To keep the Earth system in a desirable region of its state space, such as the recently suggested "tolerable environment and development window", "planetary boundaries", or "safe (and just) operating space", one not only needs to understand the quantitative internal dynamics of the system and the available options for influencing it (management), but also the structure of the system's state space with regard to certain qualitative differences. Important questions are: which state space regions can be reached from which others with or without leaving the desirable region? Which regions are in a variety of senses "safe" to stay in when management options might break away, and which qualitative decision problems may occur as a consequence of this topological structure? In this article, as a complement to the existing literature on optimal control which is more focussed on quantitative optimization and is much applied in both the engineering and the integrated assessment literature, we develop a mathematical theory of the qualitative topology of the state space of a dynamical system with management options and desirable states. We suggest a certain terminology for the various resulting regions of the state space and perform a detailed formal classification of the possible states with respect to the possibility of avoiding or leaving the undesired region. Our results indicate that before performing some form of quantitative optimization, the sustainable management of the Earth system may require decisions of a more discrete type that come in the form of several dilemmata, e.g., choosing between eventual safety and uninterrupted desirability, or between uninterrupted safety and increasing flexibility. We illustrate the concepts and dilemmata with conceptual models from classical mechanics, climate science, ecology, economics, and coevolutionary Earth system modelling and discuss their potential relevance for the climate and sustainability debate.

  1. Modeling stock price dynamics by continuum percolation system and relevant complex systems analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Di; Wang, Jun

    2012-10-01

    The continuum percolation system is developed to model a random stock price process in this work. Recent empirical research has demonstrated various statistical features of stock price changes, the financial model aiming at understanding price fluctuations needs to define a mechanism for the formation of the price, in an attempt to reproduce and explain this set of empirical facts. The continuum percolation model is usually referred to as a random coverage process or a Boolean model, the local interaction or influence among traders is constructed by the continuum percolation, and a cluster of continuum percolation is applied to define the cluster of traders sharing the same opinion about the market. We investigate and analyze the statistical behaviors of normalized returns of the price model by some analysis methods, including power-law tail distribution analysis, chaotic behavior analysis and Zipf analysis. Moreover, we consider the daily returns of Shanghai Stock Exchange Composite Index from January 1997 to July 2011, and the comparisons of return behaviors between the actual data and the simulation data are exhibited.

  2. An automated toolchain for the data-driven and dynamical modeling of combined sewer systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Troutman, Sara C; Schambach, Nathaniel; Love, Nancy G; Kerkez, Branko

    2017-12-01

    The recent availability and affordability of sensors and wireless communications is poised to transform our understanding and management of water systems. This will enable a new generation of adaptive water models that can ingest large quantities of sensor feeds and provide the best possible estimates of current and future conditions. To that end, this paper presents a novel data-driven identification/learning toolchain for combined sewer and stormwater systems. The toolchain uses Gaussian Processes to model dry-weather flows (domestic wastewater) and dynamical System Identification to represent wet-weather flows (rainfall runoff). By using a large and high-resolution sensor dataset across a real-world combined sewer system, we illustrate that relatively simple models can achieve good forecasting performance, subject to a finely-tuned and continuous re-calibration procedure. The data requirements of the proposed toolchain are evaluated, showing sensitivity to spatial heterogeneity and unique time-scales across which models of individual sites remain representative. We identify a near-optimal time record, or data "age," for which historical measurements must be available to ensure good forecasting performance. We also show that more data do not always lead to a better model due to system uncertainty, such as shifts in climate or seasonal wastewater patterns. Furthermore, the individual components of the model (wet- and dry-weather) often require different volumes of historical observations for optimal forecasting performance, thus highlighting the need for a flexible re-calibration toolchain rather than a one-size-fits-all approach. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A CONCEPTUAL SYSTEMS DYNAMICS MODEL OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.S. Grobbelaar

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available

    ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Research and Development (R&D is one of the key sub-functions of a National System of Innovation (NSI. It is the primary point of entry for new scientific development and a key focus for industrial innovation. Recent trends show evidence of disinvestments and decay of South Africa’s R&D capacity. The problem investigated in this study is the delayed effect and influence R&D investment has on the system’s ability to produce R&D output. System Dynamics modelling is an excellent tool to assess a system’s ability to adjust to change and the impact of new decisions that have to be made. The conceptual design of a System Dynamics model of R&D activities is presented. The theoretical underpinning and main assumptions made in deriving and developing the model are also discussed.

    AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Navorsing en Ontwikkeling (N&O is een van die sleutelsub-funksies van ‘n Nasionale Stelsel van Innovasie (NSI. Dit is die primêre toegangspunt vir nuwe wetenskaplike ontwikkeling en ‘n sleutelfokus vir industriële innovasie. Onlangse neigings lewer bewyse van disinvestering en agteruitgang in Suid-Afrika se N&Okapasiteit. Die probleem wat in hierdie studie ondersoek word, is die vertraagde effek en invloed wat N&O-investering op die stelsel se vermoë het om N&O-uitsette te lewer. Stelseldinamikamodellering is ‘n uitstekende gereedskapstuk om ‘n stelsel se vermoë om aan te pas by verandering te takseer en die impak van nuwe besluite wat geneem moet word te toets. Die konseptuele ontwerp van ‘n Stelseldinamikamodel van N&O-aktiwiteite word voorgehou. Die teoretiese onderbou en die hoofaannames wat gemaak is in die afleiding en ontwikkeling van die model word ook bespreek.

  4. Forecasting municipal solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban region with system dynamics modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B.

    2005-01-01

    Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues

  5. Monomial Dynamical and Control Systems over a Finite Field and Applications to Agent-based Models in Immunology

    OpenAIRE

    Delgado-Eckert, Edgar Wilfried

    2010-01-01

    In this dissertation we study time discrete monomial dynamical systems as well as control systems over a finite field. Furthermore, we study the performance of a recently developed “reverse engineering” method that was conceived to reconstruct a time discrete dynamical system over a finite field out of biological time series data. We establish to what extent this method can be used to approximate the stochastic agent-based model PathSim, which simulates Epstein-Barr virus infection. The main ...

  6. System Dynamics and Computer Modeling Expertise. A Conceptual Structure Research Inquiry

    Science.gov (United States)

    1993-07-12

    the initial theoretical framework of modern System Dynamics, wrote a programmed text Introduction to the field. Roberts, Anderson, Deal, Garet , and...The answer is a probable no and a likely yes. It is no to the extent that, at least for system dynamics, reasonable experts do differ in the way they

  7. A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using a system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yoo, J. K.; Yoon, T. S.

    2003-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of organizational and human factors in the nuclear power plant safety. Previous studies are classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach such as ergonomics and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is socio-psychology one. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and increased nuclear safety However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions between factors or variables in NPP's. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show causal relations between factors and quantify organizational and human factors, has been developed. Operating variables such as degree of leadership, adjustment of number of employee, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plants in the organization side. Through simulation, user can get an insight to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in the organization and human side

  8. A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yu, Jae Kook; Ahn, Nam Sung; Jae, Moo Sung

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of the organizational and human factors in a nuclear power plant which contribute to nuclear safety. Previous studies can be classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach using tools such as ergonomics and Probability Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is the socio-psychology approach. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and to present guidelines to lessen human error in plants. However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions among the factors or variables in nuclear power plants. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show cause and effect relationships among factors and quantify the organizational and human factors, has been developed. Handling variables such as the degree of leadership, the number of employees, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plant organization. Through simulation, users can get insights to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in both organizational and human factors

  9. Water Usage for In-Situ Oil Shale Retorting – A Systems Dynamics Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Earl D. Mattson; Larry Hull; Kara Cafferty

    2012-12-01

    A system dynamic model was construction to evaluate the water balance for in-situ oil shale conversion. The model is based on a systems dynamics approach and uses the Powersim Studio 9™ software package. Three phases of an insitu retort were consider; a construction phase primarily accounts for water needed for drilling and water produced during dewatering, an operation phase includes the production of water from the retorting process, and a remediation phase water to remove heat and solutes from the subsurface as well as return the ground surface to its natural state. Throughout these three phases, the water is consumed and produced. Consumption is account for through the drill process, dust control, returning the ground water to its initial level and make up water losses during the remedial flushing of the retort zone. Production of water is through the dewatering of the retort zone, and during chemical pyrolysis reaction of the kerogen conversion. The major water consumption was during the remediation of the insitu retorting zone.

  10. Modeling the growth dynamics of four candidate crops for Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volk, Tyler

    1987-01-01

    The production of food for human life support for advanced space missions will require the management of many different crops. The research to design these food production capabilities along with the waste management to recycle human metabolic wastes and inedible plant components are parts of Controlled Ecological Life Support Systems (CELSS). Since complete operating CELSS were not yet built, a useful adjunct to the research developing the various pieces of a CELSS are system simulation models that can examine what is currently known about the possible assembly of subsystems into a full CELSS. The growth dynamics of four crops (wheat, soybeans, potatoes, and lettuce) are examined for their general similarities and differences within the context of their important effects upon the dynamics of the gases, liquids, and solids in the CELSS. Data for the four crops currently under active research in the CELSS program using high-production hydroponics are presented. Two differential equations are developed and applied to the general characteristics of each crop growth pattern. Model parameters are determined by closely approximating each crop's data.

  11. Contact dynamics math model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glaese, John R.; Tobbe, Patrick A.

    1986-01-01

    The Space Station Mechanism Test Bed consists of a hydraulically driven, computer controlled six degree of freedom (DOF) motion system with which docking, berthing, and other mechanisms can be evaluated. Measured contact forces and moments are provided to the simulation host computer to enable representation of orbital contact dynamics. This report describes the development of a generalized math model which represents the relative motion between two rigid orbiting vehicles. The model allows motion in six DOF for each body, with no vehicle size limitation. The rotational and translational equations of motion are derived. The method used to transform the forces and moments from the sensor location to the vehicles' centers of mass is also explained. Two math models of docking mechanisms, a simple translational spring and the Remote Manipulator System end effector, are presented along with simulation results. The translational spring model is used in an attempt to verify the simulation with compensated hardware in the loop results.

  12. Application of a New Dynamic Heating System Model Using a Range of Common Control Strategies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joshua Fong

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This research investigates the overall heating energy consumptions using various control strategies, secondary heat emitters, and primary plant for a building. Previous research has successfully demonstrated that a dynamic distributed heat emitter model embedded within a simplified third-order lumped parameter building model is capable of achieving improved results when compared to other commercially available modelling tools. With the enhanced ability to capture transient effects of emitter thermal capacity, this research studies the influence of control strategies and primary plant configurations on the rate of energy consumption of a heating system. Four alternative control strategies are investigated: zone feedback; weather-compensated; a combination of both of these methods; and thermostatic control. The plant alternative configurations consist of conventional boilers, biomass boilers, and heat pumps supporting radiator heating and underfloor heating. The performance of the model is tested on a primary school building and can be applied to any residential or commercial building with a heating system. Results show that the new methods reported offer greater detail and rigor in the conduct of building energy modelling.

  13. Dynamic Model and Fault Feature Research of Dual-Rotor System with Bearing Pedestal Looseness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nanfei Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents a finite element model of dual-rotor system with pedestal looseness stemming from loosened bolts. Dynamic model including bearing pedestal looseness is established based on the dual-rotor test rig. Three-degree-of-freedom (DOF planar rigid motion of loose bearing pedestal is fully considered and collision recovery coefficient is also introduced in the model. Based on the Timoshenko beam elements, using the finite element method, rigid body kinematics, and the Newmark-β algorithm for numerical simulation, dynamic characteristics of the inner and outer rotors and the bearing pedestal plane rigid body motion under bearing pedestal looseness condition are studied. Meanwhile, the looseness experiments under two different speed combinations are carried out, and the experimental results are basically the same. The simulation results are compared with the experimental results, indicating that vibration displacement waveforms of loosened rotor have “clipping” phenomenon. When the bearing pedestal looseness fault occurs, the inner and outer rotors vibration spectrum not only contains the difference and sum frequency of the two rotors’ fundamental frequency but also contains 2X and 3X component of rotor with loosened support, and so forth; low frequency spectrum is more, containing dividing component, and so forth; the rotor displacement spectrums also contain fewer combination frequency components, and so forth; when one side of the inner rotor bearing pedestal is loosened, the inner rotor axis trajectory is drawn into similar-ellipse shape.

  14. Jacobian projection reduced-order models for dynamic systems with contact nonlinearities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastaldi, Chiara; Zucca, Stefano; Epureanu, Bogdan I.

    2018-02-01

    In structural dynamics, the prediction of the response of systems with localized nonlinearities, such as friction dampers, is of particular interest. This task becomes especially cumbersome when high-resolution finite element models are used. While state-of-the-art techniques such as Craig-Bampton component mode synthesis are employed to generate reduced order models, the interface (nonlinear) degrees of freedom must still be solved in-full. For this reason, a new generation of specialized techniques capable of reducing linear and nonlinear degrees of freedom alike is emerging. This paper proposes a new technique that exploits spatial correlations in the dynamics to compute a reduction basis. The basis is composed of a set of vectors obtained using the Jacobian of partial derivatives of the contact forces with respect to nodal displacements. These basis vectors correspond to specifically chosen boundary conditions at the contacts over one cycle of vibration. The technique is shown to be effective in the reduction of several models studied using multiple harmonics with a coupled static solution. In addition, this paper addresses another challenge common to all reduction techniques: it presents and validates a novel a posteriori error estimate capable of evaluating the quality of the reduced-order solution without involving a comparison with the full-order solution.

  15. Study on the hydrogen demand in China based on system dynamics model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Tao; Ji, Jie; Chen, Ming-qi

    2010-01-01

    Reasonable estimation of hydrogen energy and other renewable energy demand of China's medium and long-term energy is of great significance for China's medium and long-term energy plan. Therefore, based on both China's future economic development and relative economic theory and system dynamics theory, this article analyzes qualitatively the internal factors and external factors of hydrogen energy demand system, and makes the state high and low two assumptions about China's medium and long-term hydrogen demand according to the different speed of China's economic development. After the system dynamic model setting up export and operation, the output shows the data changes of the total hydrogen demand and the four kinds of hydrogen demand. According to the analysis of the output, two conclusions are concluded: The secondary industry, not the tertiary industry (mainly the transportation), should be firstly satisfied by the hydrogen R and D and support of Government policy. Change of Chinese hydrogen demand scale, on basis of its economic growth, can not be effective explained through Chinese economic growth rate, and other influencing factor and mechanism should be probed deeply. (author)

  16. Forebay Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for The Dalles Dam to Support Behavior Guidance System Siting Studies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rakowski, Cynthia L.; Richmond, Marshall C.; Serkowski, John A.; Johnson, Gary E.

    2005-03-10

    Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were developed to support the siting and design of a behavioral guidance system (BGS) structure in The Dalles Dam (TDA) forebay on the Columbia River. The work was conducted by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory for the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Portland District (CENWP). The CFD results were an invaluable tool for the analysis, both from a Regional and Agency perspective (for the fish passage evaluation) and a CENWP perspective (supporting the BGS design and location). The new CFD model (TDA forebay model) included the latest bathymetry (surveyed in 1999) and a detailed representation of the engineered structures (spillway, powerhouse main, fish, and service units). The TDA forebay model was designed and developed in a way that future studies could easily modify or, to a large extent, reuse large portions of the existing mesh. This study resulted in these key findings: (1) The TDA forebay model matched well with field-measured velocity data. (2) The TDA forebay model matched observations made at the 1:80 general physical model of the TDA forebay. (3) During the course of this study, the methodology typically used by CENWP to contour topographic data was shown to be inaccurate when applied to widely-spaced transect data. Contouring methodologies need to be revisited--especially before such things as modifying the bathymetry in the 1:80 general physical model are undertaken. Future alignments can be evaluated with the model staying largely intact. The next round of analysis will need to address fish passage demands and navigation concerns. CFD models can be used to identify the most promising locations and to provide quantified metrics for biological, hydraulic, and navigation criteria. The most promising locations should then be further evaluated in the 1:80 general physical model.

  17. Distributed model predictive control for constrained nonlinear systems with decoupled local dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Meng; Ding, Baocang

    2015-03-01

    This paper considers the distributed model predictive control (MPC) of nonlinear large-scale systems with dynamically decoupled subsystems. According to the coupled state in the overall cost function of centralized MPC, the neighbors are confirmed and fixed for each subsystem, and the overall objective function is disassembled into each local optimization. In order to guarantee the closed-loop stability of distributed MPC algorithm, the overall compatibility constraint for centralized MPC algorithm is decomposed into each local controller. The communication between each subsystem and its neighbors is relatively low, only the current states before optimization and the optimized input variables after optimization are being transferred. For each local controller, the quasi-infinite horizon MPC algorithm is adopted, and the global closed-loop system is proven to be exponentially stable. Copyright © 2014 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling and Controls Development for Supersonic Propulsion System Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Connolly, Joseph W.; Kopasakis, George; Paxson, Daniel E.; Stuber, Eric; Woolwine, Kyle

    2012-01-01

    This paper covers the propulsion system component modeling and controls development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic simulation for an inlet and engine that can be used for an overall vehicle (APSE) model. The focus here is on developing a methodology for the propulsion model integration, which allows for controls design that prevents inlet instabilities and minimizes the thrust oscillation experienced by the vehicle. Limiting thrust oscillations will be critical to avoid exciting vehicle aeroelastic modes. Model development includes both inlet normal shock position control and engine rotor speed control for a potential supersonic commercial transport. A loop shaping control design process is used that has previously been developed for the engine and verified on linear models, while a simpler approach is used for the inlet control design. Verification of the modeling approach is conducted by simulating a two-dimensional bifurcated inlet and a representative J-85 jet engine previously used in a NASA supersonics project. Preliminary results are presented for the current supersonics project concept variable cycle turbofan engine design.

  19. On the Free Vibration Modeling of Spindle Systems: A Calibrated Dynamic Stiffness Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Gaber

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The effect of bearings on the vibrational behavior of machine tool spindles is investigated. This is done through the development of a calibrated dynamic stiffness matrix (CDSM method, where the bearings flexibility is represented by massless linear spring elements with tuneable stiffness. A dedicated MATLAB code is written to develop and to assemble the element stiffness matrices for the system’s multiple components and to apply the boundary conditions. The developed method is applied to an illustrative example of spindle system. When the spindle bearings are modeled as simply supported boundary conditions, the DSM model results in a fundamental frequency much higher than the system’s nominal value. The simply supported boundary conditions are then replaced by linear spring elements, and the spring constants are adjusted such that the resulting calibrated CDSM model leads to the nominal fundamental frequency of the spindle system. The spindle frequency results are also validated against the experimental data. The proposed method can be effectively applied to predict the vibration characteristics of spindle systems supported by bearings.

  20. Solutions Stability of Initial Boundary Problem, Modeling of Dynamics of Some Discrete Continuum Mechanical System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Eliseev

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The solution stability of an initial boundary problem for a linear hybrid system of differential equations, which models the rotation of a rigid body with two elastic rods located in the same plane is studied in the paper. To an axis passing through the mass center of the rigid body perpendicularly to the rods location plane is applied the stabilizing moment proportional to the angle of the system rotation, derivative of the angle, integral of the angle. The external moment provides a feedback. A method of studying the behavior of solutions of the initial boundary problem is proposed. This method allows to exclude from the hybrid system of differential equations partial differential equations, which describe the dynamics of distributed elements of a mechanical system. It allows us to build one equation for an angle of the system rotation. Its characteristic equation defines the stability of solutions of all the system. In the space of feedback-coefficients the areas that provide the asymptotic stability of solutions of the initial boundary problem are built up.

  1. Dynamic Interactive Learning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sabry, Khaled; Barker, Jeff

    2009-01-01

    This paper reviews and discusses the notions of interactivity and dynamicity of learning systems in relation to information technologies and design principles that can contribute to interactive and dynamic learning. It explores the concept of dynamic interactive learning systems based on the emerging generation of information as part of a…

  2. The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

    2018-03-27

    Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

  3. Embedded Sensors and Controls to Improve Component Performance and Reliability - System Dynamics Modeling and Control System Design

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melin, Alexander M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Kisner, Roger A. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States)

    2013-10-01

    This report documents the current status of the modeling, control design, and embedded control research for the magnetic bearing canned rotor pump being used as a demonstration platform for deeply integrating instrumentation and controls (I{\\&}C) into nuclear power plant components. This pump is a highly inter-connected thermo/electro/mechanical system that requires an active control system to operate. Magnetic bearings are inherently unstable system and without active, moment by moment control, the rotor would contact fixed surfaces in the pump causing physical damage. This report details the modeling of the pump rotordynamics, fluid forces, electromagnetic properties of the protective cans, active magnetic bearings, power electronics, and interactions between different dynamical models. The system stability of the unforced and controlled rotor are investigated analytically. Additionally, controllers are designed using proportional derivative (PD) control, proportional integral derivative (PID) control, voltage control, and linear quadratic regulator (LQR) control. Finally, a design optimization problem that joins the electrical, mechanical, magnetic, and control system design into one problem to balance the opposing needs of various design criteria using the embedded system approach is presented.

  4. Average circulation, seasonal cycle, and mesoscale dynamics of the Peru Current System: A modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Penven, P.; Echevin, V.; Pasapera, J.; Colas, F.; Tam, J.

    2005-10-01

    The Humboldt Current System is the most productive of the eastern boundary currents. In the northern part, the Peru Current System (PCS) is located between 5°S and 20°S. Along the Peruvian coast, an equatorward wind forces a strong coastal upwelling. A high resolution model is designed to investigate the mean circulation, the seasonal cycle, and the mesoscale dynamics for the PCS. The model is able to reproduce the equatorward Peru Coastal Current (PCC), the Peru Chile Under-Current (PCUC) which follows the shelf break towards the pole, and the Peru-Chile Counter-Current (PCCC) which flows directly towards the south and veers to the west around 15°S. While the upper part of the PCUC is close to the surface and might even outcrop as a counter current, the bottom part follows ? isolines. The PCCC appears to be directly forced by the cyclonic wind stress curl. The model is able to produce the upwelling front, the cold water tongue which extends toward the equator and the equatorial front as described in the literature. Model seasonal changes in SST and SSH are compared to measurements. For the central PCS, model EKE is 10% to 30% lower than the observations. The model eddy diameters follow a strong equatorward increase. The injection length scales, derived from the energy spectra, strongly correlate to the Rossby radius of deformation, confirming the predominant role of baroclinic instability. At 3°S, the model solution appears to switch from a turbulent oceanic regime to an equatorial regime dominated by zonal currents.

  5. A model of population dynamics of TB in a prison system and application to South Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witbooi, Peter; Vyambwera, Sibaliwe Maku

    2017-11-29

    Tuberculosis (TB) continues to spread in South African prisons in particular, as prisons are over-capacitated and have poor ventilation. The awaiting trial detainees are not screened on admission and are at high risk of getting infected with TB. We propose a compartmental model to describe the population dynamics of TB disease in prisons. Our model considers the inflow of susceptible, exposed and TB infectives into the prison population. Removal of individuals out of the prison population can be either by death or by being released from prison, as compared to a general population in which removal is only by death. We describe conditions, including non-inflow of infectives into the prison, which will ensure that TB can be eradicated from the prison population. The model is calibrated for the South African prison system, by using data in existing literature. The model can be used to make quantitative projections of TB prevalence and to measure the effect of interventions. Illustrative simulations in this regard are presented. The model can be used for other prison populations too, if data is available to calculate the model parameters. Various simulations generated with our model serve to illustrate how it can be utilized in making future projections of the levels of prevalence of TB, and to quantify the effect of interventions such as screening, treatment or reduction of transmission parameter values through improved living conditions for inmates. This makes it particularly useful as there are various targets set by the World Health Organization and by governments, for reduction of TB prevalence and ultimately its eradication. Towards eradication of TB from a prison system, the theorem on global stability of the disease-free state is a useful indicator.

  6. Training the Next Generation of Scientists: System Dynamics Modeling of Chagas Disease (American Trypanosomiasis) transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goff, P.; Hulse, A.; Harder, H. R.; Pierce, L. A.; Rizzo, D.; Hanley, J.; Orantes, L.; Stevens, L.; Justi, S.; Monroy, C.

    2015-12-01

    A computational simulation has been designed as an investigative case study by high school students to introduce system dynamics modeling into high school curriculum. This case study approach leads users through the forensics necessary to diagnose an unknown disease in a Central American village. This disease, Chagas, is endemic to 21 Latin American countries. The CDC estimates that of the 110 million people living in areas with the disease, 8 million are infected, with as many as 300,000 US cases. Chagas is caused by the protozoan parasite, Trypanosoma cruzi, and is spread via blood feeding insect (vectors), that feed on vertebrates and live in crevasses in the walls and roofs of adobe homes. One-third of the infected people will develop chronic Chagas who are asymptomatic for years before their heart or GI tract become enlarged resulting in death. The case study has three parts. Students play the role of WHO field investigators and work collaboratively to: 1) use genetics to identify the host(s) and vector of the disease 2) use a STELLA™ SIR (Susceptible, Infected, Recovered) system dynamics model to study Chagas at the village scale and 3) develop management strategies. The simulations identify mitigation strategies known as Ecohealth Interventions (e.g., home improvements using local materials) to help stakeholders test and compare multiple optima. High school students collaborated with researchers from the University of Vermont, Loyola University and Universidad de San Carlos, Guatemala, working in labs, interviewing researchers, and incorporating mulitple field data as part of a NSF-funded multiyear grant. The model displays stable equilibria of hosts, vectors, and disease-states. Sensitivity analyses show measures of household condition and presence of vertebrates were significant leverage points, supporting other findings by the University research team. The village-scale model explores multiple solutions to disease mitigation for the purpose of producing

  7. Root causes occurrence of low BIM adoption in Malaysia: System dynamics modelling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mamter, Shahela; Aziz, Abdul Rashid Abdul; Zulkepli, Jafri

    2017-11-01

    The global implementation of BIM in the construction field is increasing worldwide. Due to the advantages offered by BIM, its implementation is considered important in the construction projects. Nevertheless, the Construction Industry Transformation Plan has reported that the adoption of Building Information Modelling (BIM) in Malaysia is still low and it is estimated at only 10 percent adoption amongst construction stake players. The barriers influencing the occurrence of low adoption BIM in Malaysia have been studied by some researchers. However, these researchers did not investigate the root causes which might lead to the recurring of the barriers to BIM adoption. Root causes that immediately occurrence of barriers, also known as precipitants or trigger causes. This conceptual paper developed the causal loop diagram (CLD) which presents the relationship between the perceived variables using system dynamic modelling approach. The findings revealed a novelty validated diagrams that design the holistic dynamic relationship on the root causes occurrence of low BIM adoption. Nonetheless, the diagram subject to more empirical testing for its practicability and further refinement upon more results expected to emerge as the research progresses.

  8. Dynamic simulation model of a coal thermoelectric plant with a flue gas desulphurisation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Antonio Caselles-Moncho; Liliana Ferrandiz-Serrano; Eduardo Peris-Mora [Universitat de Valencia, Burjassot (Spain). Departament de Matematica Aplicada

    2006-12-15

    In this paper a Dynamic Simulation Model has been used to present the likely responses of the electricity industries' latest perturbations such as: changes in environmental regulations, international fuel market evolution, restriction on fuel supply and increase on fuel prices, liberalisation of the European electricity market, and the results of applying energy policies and official tools such as taxes and emission allowances. The case study refers to the Teruel Power Plant, built after the 1970s oil crisis to ensure Spain's electricity supply, burning domestically produced coal in order to ensure local mining activity. The Teruel Power Plant has made relevant investments in order to meet emission limits, such as a flue gas desulphurisation plant. The economic viability of the power stations has to be analysed after environmental costs have been internalised. A system is defined that studies the coal-firing electric power plant selling energy to the free electricity market, whenever the generation cost is competitive. A Dynamic Simulation Model would appear to be an accurate tool to optimise power station management within different frameworks. 82 refs., 2 figs., 5 tabs., 2 apps.

  9. Dynamic simulation model of a coal thermoelectric plant with a flue gas desulphurisation system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Caselles-Moncho, Antonio [Departament de Matematica Aplicada, Universitat de Valencia, 46100 Burjassot (Spain)]. E-mail: Antonio.Caselles@uv.es; Ferrandiz-Serrano, Liliana [Departamento de Ingenieria de la Construccion, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain); Peris-Mora, Eduardo [Departamento de Ingenieria de la Construccion, Universidad Politecnica de Valencia, Camino de Vera s/n, 46022 Valencia (Spain)

    2006-12-15

    In this paper a Dynamic Simulation Model has been used to present the likely responses of the electricity industries' latest perturbations such as: changes in environmental regulations, international fuel market evolution, restriction on fuel supply and increase on fuel prices, liberalisation of the European Electricity Market, and the results of applying energy policies and official tools such as taxes and emission allowances. The case under study refers to the Teruel Power Plant, built after the 1970s oil crisis to ensure national electricity supply; burning domestically produced coal in order to ensure local mining activity. The Teruel Power Plant has made relevant investments in order to meet emission limits, such as a Flue Gas Desulphurisation Plant. The economic viability of the power stations has to be analysed after environmental costs have been internalised. A system is defined that studies the coal-firing Electric Power Plant selling energy to the free electricity market, whenever the generation cost is competitive. A Dynamic Simulation Model would appear to be an accurate tool to optimise power station management within different frameworks.

  10. Dynamic simulation model of a coal thermoelectric plant with a flue gas desulphurisation system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Caselles-Moncho, Antonio; Ferrandiz-Serrano, Liliana; Peris-Mora, Eduardo

    2006-01-01

    In this paper a Dynamic Simulation Model has been used to present the likely responses of the electricity industries' latest perturbations such as: changes in environmental regulations, international fuel market evolution, restriction on fuel supply and increase on fuel prices, liberalisation of the European Electricity Market, and the results of applying energy policies and official tools such as taxes and emission allowances. The case under study refers to the Teruel Power Plant, built after the 1970s oil crisis to ensure national electricity supply; burning domestically produced coal in order to ensure local mining activity. The Teruel Power Plant has made relevant investments in order to meet emission limits, such as a Flue Gas Desulphurisation Plant. The economic viability of the power stations has to be analysed after environmental costs have been internalised. A system is defined that studies the coal-firing Electric Power Plant selling energy to the free electricity market, whenever the generation cost is competitive. A Dynamic Simulation Model would appear to be an accurate tool to optimise power station management within different frameworks

  11. Roll System and Stock's Multi-parameter Coupling Dynamic Modeling Based on the Shape Control of Steel Strip

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yang; Peng, Yan; Sun, Jianliang; Zang, Yong

    2017-05-01

    The existence of rolling deformation area in the rolling mill system is the main characteristic which distinguishes the other machinery. In order to analyze the dynamic property of roll system's flexural deformation, it is necessary to consider the transverse periodic movement of stock in the rolling deformation area which is caused by the flexural deformation movement of roll system simultaneously. Therefore, the displacement field of roll system and flow of metal in the deformation area is described by kinematic analysis in the dynamic system. Through introducing the lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area, the dynamic variation of per unit width rolling force can be determined at the same time. Then the coupling law caused by the co-effect of rigid movement and flexural deformation of the system structural elements is determined. Furthermore, a multi-parameter coupling dynamic model of the roll system and stock is established by the principle of virtual work. More explicitly, the coupled motion modal analysis was made for the roll system. Meanwhile, the analytical solutions for the flexural deformation movement's mode shape functions of rolls are discussed. In addition, the dynamic characteristic of the lateral flow of metal in the rolling deformation area has been analyzed at the same time. The establishment of dynamic lateral displacement function of metal in the deformation area makes the foundation for analyzing the coupling law between roll system and rolling deformation area, and provides a theoretical basis for the realization of the dynamic shape control of steel strip.

  12. TOCATTA: a dynamic transfer model of 3H from the atmosphere to soil–plant systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Le Dizès, S.; Aulagnier, C.; Henner, P.; Simon-Cornu, M.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes a dynamic compartment model (TOCATTA) that simulates tritium transfer in agricultural plants of several categories including vegetables, pasture and annual crops, exposed to time-varying HTO concentrations of water vapour in the air and possibly in irrigation and rainwater. Consideration is also given to the transfer pathways of HTO in soil. Though the transfer of tritium is quite complex, from its release into the environment to its absorption and its incorporation within the organic material of living organisms, the TOCATTA model is relatively simple, with a limited number of compartments and input parameters appropriate to its use in an operational mode. In this paper, we took the opportunity to have data obtained on an ornamental plant – an indoor palm tree – within an industrial building where tritium was released accidentally over several weeks (or months). More specifically, the model's ability to provide hindsight on the chronology of the release scenario is discussed by comparing model predictions of TFWT and OBT activity concentrations in the plant leaves with measurements performed on three different leaves characterized by different developmental stages. The data-model comparison shows some limitations, mainly because of a lack of knowledge about the initial conditions of the accident and when it actually started and about the processes involved in the transfer of tritium. Efforts are needed in both experimental and modelling areas for future evaluation of tritium behaviour in agricultural soil and plants exposed to gaseous HTO releases and/or to irrigation with contaminated water. -- Highlights: • We modelled 3 H transfer from the atmosphere to soil-plant systems. • Model-data comparison provided hindsight on the chronology of a real case scenario. • Efforts are needed in experimental and modelling areas to handle discrete 3 H releases

  13. A system dynamic simulation model for managing the human error in power tools industries

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jamil, Jastini Mohd; Shaharanee, Izwan Nizal Mohd

    2017-10-01

    In the era of modern and competitive life of today, every organization will face the situations in which the work does not proceed as planned when there is problems occur in which it had to be delay. However, human error is often cited as the culprit. The error that made by the employees would cause them have to spend additional time to identify and check for the error which in turn could affect the normal operations of the company as well as the company's reputation. Employee is a key element of the organization in running all of the activities of organization. Hence, work performance of the employees is a crucial factor in organizational success. The purpose of this study is to identify the factors that cause the increasing errors make by employees in the organization by using system dynamics approach. The broadly defined targets in this study are employees in the Regional Material Field team from purchasing department in power tools industries. Questionnaires were distributed to the respondents to obtain their perceptions on the root cause of errors make by employees in the company. The system dynamics model was developed to simulate the factor of the increasing errors make by employees and its impact. The findings of this study showed that the increasing of error make by employees was generally caused by the factors of workload, work capacity, job stress, motivation and performance of employees. However, this problem could be solve by increased the number of employees in the organization.

  14. The simulation of glazing systems in the dynamic thermal model HTB2

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alexander, D.K.; Mylona, A.; Jones, P.J. [Cardiff Univ., Cardiff (United Kingdom). Welsh School of Architecture

    2005-07-01

    The existing dynamic thermal simulation code, HTB2, is a general-purpose finite difference simulation code for energy and environmental performance of buildings. This paper presents modifications to, and testing of, the HTB2 to allow more detailed consideration of glazing and solar shading systems. The changes were needed in order to model the effects of placement and specification of horizontal and vertical blinds. As building envelopes become better insulated, the performance of glazing systems play a more critical role in the energy performance of a building. The specification of solar control devices such as slatted blinds still creates controversy in the design industry in terms of the best options for a particular situation. Dark coloured blinds are often used by default, resulting in uncomfortable summer conditions. The modifications to the dynamic thermal model included the development of a data format to enable the specification of optical transmission characteristics with respect to relative altitude and azimuth, the calculation of transmission through slatted blinds and the consideration of recent standard algorithms for cavity and surface heat transfer. A comparison with reference standard software and test-cell measurements indicates that the software can predict total solar transmission of glazing with mid-pane shading combinations, to a root-mean-square error of {+-}0.04 when an anisotropic sky radiance model is applied. The optical characteristics of the blinds can be specified to a resolution of 5 degrees, which is sufficient to distinguish between several glazing options faced during the design stage of a building. 19 refs., 4 tabs., 6 figs.

  15. System dynamic model and charging control of lead-acid battery for stand-alone solar PV system

    KAUST Repository

    Huang, B.J.

    2010-05-01

    The lead-acid battery which is widely used in stand-alone solar system is easily damaged by a poor charging control which causes overcharging. The battery charging control is thus usually designed to stop charging after the overcharge point. This will reduce the storage energy capacity and reduce the service time in electricity supply. The design of charging control system however requires a good understanding of the system dynamic behaviour of the battery first. In the present study, a first-order system dynamics model of lead-acid battery at different operating points near the overcharge voltage was derived experimentally, from which a charging control system based on PI algorithm was developed using PWM charging technique. The feedback control system for battery charging after the overcharge point (14 V) was designed to compromise between the set-point response and the disturbance rejection. The experimental results show that the control system can suppress the battery voltage overshoot within 0.1 V when the solar irradiation is suddenly changed from 337 to 843 W/m2. A long-term outdoor test for a solar LED lighting system shows that the battery voltage never exceeded 14.1 V for the set point 14 V and the control system can prevent the battery from overcharging. The test result also indicates that the control system is able to increase the charged energy by 78%, as compared to the case that the charging stops after the overcharge point (14 V). © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Multi-mass dynamic model of a variable-length tether used in a high altitude wind energy system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Milutinović, Milan; Kranjčević, Nenad; Deur, Joško

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • A multi-mass dynamics model of a variable length tether has been developed. • The modelling approach enables straightforward description of the aerodynamic drag. • The model is used in high altitude wind energy system control-oriented simulations. • The model accurately describes the shape, forces and vibrations of the tether. - Abstract: This paper presents a multibody approach to dynamics modelling of a variable-length tether moving through air, in a system where an airborne module generates aerodynamic lift and uses the tether to cyclically drive the winch-generator unit fixed on the ground. The rope is modelled as a series of straight, massless, elastic segments with the rope mass fragments lumped to the segment joints. Individual segment length is constant, with the exception of segment being wound out from the winch, while the number of segments is variable. For the segment being wound out, a special modelling approach is derived. The forces acting on the rope are also concentrated at the joints, thus simplifying computations and facilitating rope aerodynamic drag modelling. The proposed tether dynamics model is integrated into the overall model of controlled power production system and verified by computer simulation. The model is compared with two simpler tether dynamics models also proposed in the paper

  17. Spaces of Dynamical Systems

    CERN Document Server

    Pilyugin, Sergei Yu

    2012-01-01

    Dynamical systems are abundant in theoretical physics and engineering. Their understanding, with sufficient mathematical rigor, is vital to solving many problems. This work conveys the modern theory of dynamical systems in a didactically developed fashion.In addition to topological dynamics, structural stability and chaotic dynamics, also generic properties and pseudotrajectories are covered, as well as nonlinearity. The author is an experienced book writer and his work is based on years of teaching.

  18. Incorporating Vibration Test Results for the Advanced Stirling Convertor into the System Dynamic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meer, David W.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

    2010-01-01

    The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Lockheed Martin Corporation (LM), and NASA Glenn Research Center (GRC) have been developing the Advanced Stirling Radioisotope Generator (ASRG) for use as a power system for space science missions. As part of the extended operation testing of this power system, the Advanced Stirling Convertors (ASC) at NASA GRC undergo a vibration test sequence intended to simulate the vibration history that an ASC would experience when used in an ASRG for a space mission. During these tests, a data system collects several performance-related parameters from the convertor under test for health monitoring and analysis. Recently, an additional sensor recorded the slip table position during vibration testing to qualification level. The System Dynamic Model (SDM) integrates Stirling cycle thermodynamics, heat flow, mechanical mass, spring, damper systems, and electrical characteristics of the linear alternator and controller. This Paper presents a comparison of the performance of the ASC when exposed to vibration to that predicted by the SDM when exposed to the same vibration.

  19. Modeling a solar-heated anaerobic digester for the developing world using system dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bentley, Johanna Lynn

    Much of the developing world lacks access to a dependable source of energy. Agricultural societies such as Mozambique and Papua New Guinea could sustain a reliable energy source through the microbacterial decomposition of animal and crop waste. Anaerobic digestion produces methane, which can be used directly for heating, cooking, and lighting. Adding a solar component to the digester provides a catalyst for bacteria activity, accelerating digestion and increasing biogas production. Using methane decreases the amount of energy expended by collecting and preparing firewood, eliminates hazardous health effects linked to inhalation of particles, and provides energy close to where it is needed. The purpose of this work is two fold: initial efforts focus on the development and validation of a computer-based system dynamics model that combines elements of the anaerobic digestion process in order to predict methane output; second, the model is flexed to explore how the addition of a solar component increases robustness of the design, examines predicted biogas generation as a function of varying input conditions, and determines how best to configure such systems for use in varying developing world environments. Therefore, the central components of the system: solar insolation, waste feedstock, bacteria population and consumption rates, and biogas production are related both conceptually and mathematically through a serious of equations, conversions, and a causal loop and feedback diagram. Given contextual constraints and initial assumptions for both locations, it was determined that solar insolation and subsequent digester temperature control, amount of waste, and extreme weather patterns had the most significant impact on the system as a whole. Model behavior was both reproducible and comparable to that demonstrated in existing experimental systems. This tool can thus be flexed to fit specific contexts within the developing world to improve the standard of living of many

  20. Dynamical system with plastic self-organized velocity field as an alternative conceptual model of a cognitive system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Janson, Natalia B; Marsden, Christopher J

    2017-12-05

    It is well known that architecturally the brain is a neural network, i.e. a collection of many relatively simple units coupled flexibly. However, it has been unclear how the possession of this architecture enables higher-level cognitive functions, which are unique to the brain. Here, we consider the brain from the viewpoint of dynamical systems theory and hypothesize that the unique feature of the brain, the self-organized plasticity of its architecture, could represent the means of enabling the self-organized plasticity of its velocity vector field. We propose that, conceptually, the principle of cognition could amount to the existence of appropriate rules governing self-organization of the velocity field of a dynamical system with an appropriate account of stimuli. To support this hypothesis, we propose a simple non-neuromorphic mathematical model with a plastic self-organized velocity field, which has no prototype in physical world. This system is shown to be capable of basic cognition, which is illustrated numerically and with musical data. Our conceptual model could provide an additional insight into the working principles of the brain. Moreover, hardware implementations of plastic velocity fields self-organizing according to various rules could pave the way to creating artificial intelligence of a novel type.

  1. Design of a dynamic positioning system using model-based control

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asgeir J. Sørensen

    1996-04-01

    Full Text Available A dynamic positioning (DP system includes different control functions for automatic positioning and guidance of marine vessels by means of thruster and propeller actions. This paper describes the control functions which provide station-keeping and tracking. The DP controller is designed using model-based control, where a new modified LQG feedback controller and a model reference feedforward controller are applied. A reference model calculates appropriate reference trajectories. Since it is not desirable nor even possible to counteract the wave-frequency movement caused by first-order wave loads, the control action of the propulsion system should be produced by the low frequency part of the vessel movement caused by current, wind and second-order mean and slowly varying wave loads. A Kalman filter based state estimator and a Luenberger observer are used to compute the low-frequency feedback and feedforward control signals. Full-scale experiments with a supply vessel demonstrate the performance of the proposed controller.

  2. Boolean Networks in Inference and Dynamic Modeling of Biological Systems at the Molecular and Physiological Level

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thakar, Juilee; Albert, Réka

    The following sections are included: * Introduction * Boolean Network Concepts and History * Extensions of the Classical Boolean Framework * Boolean Inference Methods and Examples in Biology * Dynamic Boolean Models: Examples in Plant Biology, Developmental Biology and Immunology * Conclusions * References

  3. Modeling Relationship between R&D Activities and Organization Knowledge Stock Using System Dynamics Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Mohaghar

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available Knowledge is identified as a critical factor for innovation. On the other side, knowledge creation takes place through investing on R&D activities and developing new products. Furthermore, not all types of R&D activities result in similar types of innovation. Indeed, investing on research activities result in radical innovation and investing on development activities concludein incremental innovation. Keeping a balance between these two kinds of innovation in products is critical to acquire competitive advantages. To investigate the dynamic-nature and complex relationship between knowledge creation and investing on R&D activities, presenting paper tried to study impacts of different investing policies on knowledge stockusing a systematic view. Hence, “system dynamics” which is an approach to study the complex system is used to model and simulate the presenting system. Beside, a case study was also presented to test applicable capability of the model. The simulation results showed that investing policies on R&D activities must be based on comparing the real performance and the goal performance.

  4. How many doctors should we train for Sri Lanka? System dynamics modelling for training needs

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Silva, D

    2017-12-26

    Over the years, Sri Lanka has achieved remarkable health gains for the money spent on health. Currently about 1450 doctors enter the health system annually. While some advocate opening up of new medical schools to address an apparent shortage of doctors in the country, others argue against it. To identify the number of doctors Sri Lanka need. System dynamics, an analytical modelling approach and a methodology for studying complex feedback systems was used. Two sub models of “need” and “supply” were developed and simulated for a period of 15 years from 2017 to 2032 At present the doctor to population ratio is 1:671 and 91% of the need has been met. This study shows that currently there is a shortage of doctors in the country. However, the supply will match the need by 2025/26. Increasing the number of doctors, will result in oversupply of doctors towards the latter part of the next decade. There is no acute necessity to open up new Medical Schools. However comprehensive health workforce analysis needs to be done once in 5 years and the number of doctors to be trained, decided accordingly.

  5. Direct Visualization of Aggregate Morphology and Dynamics in a Model Soil Organic–Mineral System

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hufschmid, Ryan D.; Newcomb, Christina J.; Grate, Jay W.; De Yoreo, James J.; Browning, Nigel D.; Qafoku, Nikolla

    2017-04-03

    Interactions between mineral surfaces and organic matter are ubiquitous in soils and the environment. Through both physical and chemical mechanisms, organic-mineral assemblages prevent decomposition of soil organic matter by limiting accessibility or reducing efficacy of enzymes and microbes. To understand the mechanisms underlying organic-mineral interactions, researchers have begun to interrogate these systems at smaller length scales. Current techniques that maintain a hydrated state and allow researchers to characterize nanometer length scales are limited. Here we chose a model organic-mineral system and performed complementary imaging techniques that enable direct nanoscale observations in environmentally relevant conditions: cryogenic TEM and in-situ liquid cell TEM. We observed a three-fold increase in aggregate size of goethite nanoparticles upon addition of a model organic phosphate ligand and quantification of nanoparticle orientation reveals a preference for side-to-side interactions independent of the addition of an organic ligand. Additionally, in-situ liquid cell TEM experiments provides a dynamic view of the interactions allowing us to report velocities of mineral assemblages during aggregation and disaggregation, which could potentially provide binding energetics and kinetic parameters about organic-mineral and mineral-mineral systems.

  6. Thermodynamic Modeling of Ag-Ni System Combining Experiments and Molecular Dynamic Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajkumar, V. B.; Chen, Sinn-wen

    2017-04-01

    Ag-Ni is a simple and important system with immiscible liquids and (Ag,Ni) phases. Previously, this system has been thermodynamically modeled utilizing certain thermochemical and phase equilibria information based on conjecture. An attempt is made in this study to determine the missing information which are difficult to measure experimentally. The boundaries of the liquid miscibility gap at high temperatures are determined using a pyrometer. The temperature of the liquid ⇌ (Ag) + (Ni) eutectic reaction is measured using differential thermal analysis. Tie-lines of the Ag-Ni system at 1023 K and 1473 K are measured using a conventional metallurgical method. The enthalpy of mixing of the liquid at 1773 K and the (Ag,Ni) at 973 K is calculated by molecular dynamics simulation using a large-scale atomic/molecular massively parallel simulator. These results along with literature information are used to model the Gibbs energy of the liquid and (Ag,Ni) by a calculation of phase diagrams approach, and the Ag-Ni phase diagram is then calculated.

  7. A dynamic model of an innovative high-temperature solar heating and cooling system

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Buonomano Annamaria

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a new simulation model of a novel solar heating and cooling system based on innovative high temperature flat plate evacuated solar thermal collector is presented. The system configuration includes: flat-plate evacuated solar collectors, a double-stage LiBr-H2O absorption chiller, gas-fired auxiliary heater, a closed loop cooling tower, pumps, heat exchangers, storage tanks, valves, mixers and controllers. The novelty of this study lies in the utilization of flat-plate stationary solar collectors, manufactured by TVP Solar, rather than concentrating ones (typically adopted for driving double-stage absorption chillers. Such devices show ultra-high thermal efficiencies, even at very high (about 200°C operating temperatures, thanks to the high vacuum insulation. Aim of the paper is to analyse the energy and economic feasibility of such novel technology, by including it in a prototypal solar heating and cooling system. For this purpose, the solar heating and cooling system design and performance were analysed by means of a purposely developed dynamic simulation model, implemented in TRNSYS. A suitable case study is also presented. Here, the simulated plant is conceived for the space heating and cooling and the domestic hot water production of a small building, whose energy needs are fulfilled through a real installation (settled also for experimental purposes built up close to Naples (South Italy. Simulation results show that the investigated system is able to reach high thermal efficiencies and very good energy performance. Finally, the economic analysis shows results comparable to those achieved through similar renewable energy systems.

  8. Dynamical Systems Conference

    CERN Document Server

    Gils, S; Hoveijn, I; Takens, F; Nonlinear Dynamical Systems and Chaos

    1996-01-01

    Symmetries in dynamical systems, "KAM theory and other perturbation theories", "Infinite dimensional systems", "Time series analysis" and "Numerical continuation and bifurcation analysis" were the main topics of the December 1995 Dynamical Systems Conference held in Groningen in honour of Johann Bernoulli. They now form the core of this work which seeks to present the state of the art in various branches of the theory of dynamical systems. A number of articles have a survey character whereas others deal with recent results in current research. It contains interesting material for all members of the dynamical systems community, ranging from geometric and analytic aspects from a mathematical point of view to applications in various sciences.

  9. Teaching Sustainability through System Dynamics: Exploring Stocks and Flows Embedded in Dynamic Computer Models of an Agricultural Land Management System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pallant, Amy; Lee, Hee-Sun

    2017-01-01

    During the past several decades, there has been a growing awareness of the ways humans affect Earth systems. As global problems emerge, educating the next generation of citizens to be able to make informed choices related to future outcomes is increasingly important. The challenge for educators is figuring out how to prepare students to think…

  10. Systems dynamics modelling to assess the sustainability of renewable energy technologies in developing countries

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Brent, AC

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available supply, and the related cost implications, for water supply; concentrated solar thermal technology options are currently considered. In this paper a systems dynamics approach is used to assess the sustainability of these types of renewable energy...

  11. Modeling Unsteady Cavitation Effects and Dynamic Loads in Cryogenic Systems, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — There currently are no analytical or CFD tools that can reliably predict unsteady cavitation dynamics in liquid rocket cryogenic systems. Analysis of cavitating...

  12. FCJ-199 Modelling Systemic Racism: Mobilising the Dynamics of Race and Games in Everyday Racism

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robbie Fordyce

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available This article is concerned with attempts to pose videogames as solutions to systemic racism. The mobile app, Everyday Racism, is one such game. Its method is to directly address players as subjects of racism interpellating them as victims of racist language and behaviour within Australian society, implicating the impact of racism on mental health and wellbeing. While the game has politically laudable goals, its effectiveness is undermined by several issues themselves attributable to the dynamics of race and games. This paper will spell out those issues by addressing three separate facets of the game: the problematic relationship between the player and their elected avatar; the pedagogic compromises that are made in modelling racism as a game; finally, the superliminal narrative that attempts to transcend the limited diegetic world of the game.

  13. Effect of Policy Analysis on Indonesia’s Maritime Cluster Development Using System Dynamics Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nursyamsi, A.; Moeis, A. O.; Komarudin

    2018-03-01

    As an archipelago with two third of its territory consist of water, Indonesia should address more attention to its maritime industry development. One of the catalyst to fasten the maritime industry growth is by developing a maritime cluster. The purpose of this research is to gain understanding of the effect if Indonesia implement maritime cluster policy to the growth of maritime economic and its role to enhance the maritime cluster performance, hence enhancing Indonesia’s maritime industry as well. The result of the constructed system dynamic model simulation shows that with the effect of maritime cluster, the growth of employment rate and maritime economic is much bigger that the business as usual case exponentially. The result implies that the government should act fast to form a legitimate cluster maritime organizer institution so that there will be a synergize, sustainable, and positive maritime cluster environment that will benefit the performance of Indonesia’s maritime industry.

  14. A SIMPLIFIED MODEL OF THREE-PHASE BANK OF CURRENT TRANSFORMERS IN THE DYNAMIC SIMULATION SYSTEM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. V. Novash

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available  The article presents and substantiates a simplified mathematical simulation model realization technique for a three-phase bank of current transformers (CT based on their nameplate data. The secondary windings and load of the current transformers form a Y-connected circuit with neutral conductor. Consistent with the presented technique the simplified mathematical simulation realizes in the dynamic-modeling environment of MatLab–Simulink–SimPowerSystems. This simulation allows obtaining the secondary current curve shape entering only the nameplate data of the CT being simulated. Thus, the simulation under consideration enables the assessment of technical feasibility of the CT from viewpoint of correct functioning of the relay protective devices during transient processes in the electric energy systems.Employing the model, the authors conduct computational experiments simulating the CT typical operating modes: short-circuit current passage with presence/absence of the direct component and short-circuit current passage with presence of the direct component and residual magnetic induction of the CT. The paper examines the modes of automatic re-closing failure at different stages of the breaker closure with oscillograms drawn illustrating each characteristic case.The authors compare two methods for the CT iron magnetization-curve assigning: manual approximation and the Ollendorf-formula approximation. Relying on this comparison they conclude on feasability of application of the magnetization-curve approximating function for the CT operating analysis during transient processes in the electric energy systems. An elaborated user-friendly graphic interface provides a means of visual assigning the CT nominal parameters, the residual magnetic induction, and the method of the transformer iron magnetization curve approximation. The results of conducted computational experiments prove feasibility of the CT-bank simulation model.

  15. Patterns of Use of an Agent-Based Model and a System Dynamics Model: The Application of Patterns of Use and the Impacts on Learning Outcomes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thompson, Kate; Reimann, Peter

    2010-01-01

    A classification system that was developed for the use of agent-based models was applied to strategies used by school-aged students to interrogate an agent-based model and a system dynamics model. These were compared, and relationships between learning outcomes and the strategies used were also analysed. It was found that the classification system…

  16. A System Dynamics Model of Serum Prostate-Specific Antigen Screening for Prostate Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palma, Anton; Lounsbury, David W; Schlecht, Nicolas F; Agalliu, Ilir

    2016-02-01

    Since 2012, US guidelines have recommended against prostate-specific antigen (PSA) screening for prostate cancer. However, evidence of screening benefit from the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal and Ovarian (PLCO) Cancer Screening trial and the European Randomized Study of Screening for Prostate Cancer has been inconsistent, due partly to differences in noncompliance and contamination. Using system dynamics modeling, we replicated the PLCO trial and extrapolated follow-up to 20 years. We then simulated 3 scenarios correcting for contamination in the PLCO control arm using Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) incidence and survival data collected prior to the PSA screening era (scenario 1), SEER data collected during the PLCO trial period (1993-2001) (scenario 2), and data from the European trial's control arm (1991-2005) (scenario 3). In all scenarios, noncompliance was corrected using incidence and survival rates for men with screen-detected cancer in the PLCO screening arm. Scenarios 1 and 3 showed a benefit of PSA screening, with relative risks of 0.62 (95% confidence interval: 0.53, 0.72) and 0.70 (95% confidence interval: 0.59, 0.83) for cancer-specific mortality after 20 years, respectively. In scenario 2, however, there was no benefit of screening. This simulation showed that after correcting for noncompliance and contamination, there is potential benefit of PSA screening in reducing prostate cancer mortality. It also demonstrates the utility of system dynamics modeling for synthesizing epidemiologic evidence to inform public policy. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  17. Relating structure and dynamics in organisation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jonkers, C.M.; Treur, J.

    2002-01-01

    To understand how an organisational structure relates to dynamics is an interesting fundamental challenge in the area of social modelling. Specifications of organisational structure usually have a diagrammatic form that abstracts from more detailed dynamics. Dynamic properties of agent systems,

  18. Modelling system dynamics and phytoplankton diversity at Ranchi lake using the carbon and nutrient mass balance equations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mukherjee, B; Nivedita, M; Mukherjee, D

    2014-05-01

    Modelling system dynamics in a hyper-eutrophic lake is quite complex especially with a constant influx of detergents and sewage material which continually changes the state variables and interferes with the assessment of the chemical rhythm occurring in polluted conditions as compared to unpolluted systems. In this paper, a carbon and nutrient mass balance model for predicting system dynamics in a complex environment was studied. Studies were conducted at Ranchi lake to understand the altered environmental dynamics in hyper-eutrophic conditions, and its impact on the plankton community. The lake was monitored regularly for five years (2007 - 2011) and the data collected on the carbon flux, nitrates, phosphates and silicates was used to design a mass balance model for evaluating and predicting the system. The model was then used to correlate the chemical rhythm with that of the phytoplankton dynamics and diversity. Nitrates and phosphates were not limiting (mean nitrate and phosphate concentrations were 1.74 and 0.83 mgl⁻¹ respectively). Free carbon dioxide was found to control the system and, interacting with other parameters determined the diversity and dynamics of the plankton community. N/P ratio determined which group of phytoplankton dominated the community, above 5 it favoured the growth of chlorophyceae while below 5 cyanobacteria dominates. TOC/TIC ratio determined the abundance. The overall system was controlled by the availability of free carbon dioxide which served as a limiting factor.

  19. Respectful Modeling: Addressing Uncertainty in Dynamic System Models for Molecular Biology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsigkinopoulou, Areti; Baker, Syed Murtuza; Breitling, Rainer

    2017-06-01

    Although there is still some skepticism in the biological community regarding the value and significance of quantitative computational modeling, important steps are continually being taken to enhance its accessibility and predictive power. We view these developments as essential components of an emerging 'respectful modeling' framework which has two key aims: (i) respecting the models themselves and facilitating the reproduction and update of modeling results by other scientists, and (ii) respecting the predictions of the models and rigorously quantifying the confidence associated with the modeling results. This respectful attitude will guide the design of higher-quality models and facilitate the use of models in modern applications such as engineering and manipulating microbial metabolism by synthetic biology. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Performance metric optimization advocates CPFR in supply chains: A system dynamics model based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balaji Janamanchi

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Supply Chain partners often find themselves in rather helpless positions, unable to improve their firm’s performance and profitability because their partners although willing to share production information do not fully collaborate in tackling customer order variations as they don’t seem to appreciate the benefits of such collaboration. Methods: We use a two-player (supplier-manufacturer System Dynamics model to study the dynamics to assess the impact and usefulness of supply chain partner collaboration on the supply chain performance measures. Results: Simulation results of supply chain metrics under varied customer order patterns viz., basecase, random normal, random uniform, random upwardtrend, and random downwardtrend under (a basecase, (b independent optimization by manufacturer, and (c collaborative optimization by manufacturer and supplier, are obtained to contrast them to develop useful insights. Conclusions: Focus on obtaining improved inventory turns with optimization techniques provides some viable options to managers and makes a strong case for increased collaborative planning forecasting and replenishment (CPFR in supply chains. Despite the differences in the inventory management practices that it was contrasted with, CPFR has proven to be beneficial in a supply chain environment for all SC partners.

  1. Dynamic Characteristics of Mechanical Ventilation System of Double Lungs with Bi-Level Positive Airway Pressure Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dongkai Shen

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In recent studies on the dynamic characteristics of ventilation system, it was considered that human had only one lung, and the coupling effect of double lungs on the air flow can not be illustrated, which has been in regard to be vital to life support of patients. In this article, to illustrate coupling effect of double lungs on flow dynamics of mechanical ventilation system, a mathematical model of a mechanical ventilation system, which consists of double lungs and a bi-level positive airway pressure (BIPAP controlled ventilator, was proposed. To verify the mathematical model, a prototype of BIPAP system with a double-lung simulators and a BIPAP ventilator was set up for experimental study. Lastly, the study on the influences of key parameters of BIPAP system on dynamic characteristics was carried out. The study can be referred to in the development of research on BIPAP ventilation treatment and real respiratory diagnostics.

  2. Noether's theorem for non-conservative Hamilton system based on El-Nabulsi dynamical model extended by periodic laws

    Science.gov (United States)

    Long, Zi-Xuan; Zhang, Yi

    2014-11-01

    This paper focuses on the Noether symmetries and the conserved quantities for both holonomic and nonholonomic systems based on a new non-conservative dynamical model introduced by El-Nabulsi. First, the El-Nabulsi dynamical model which is based on a fractional integral extended by periodic laws is introduced, and El-Nabulsi—Hamilton's canonical equations for non-conservative Hamilton system with holonomic or nonholonomic constraints are established. Second, the definitions and criteria of El-Nabulsi—Noether symmetrical transformations and quasi-symmetrical transformations are presented in terms of the invariance of El-Nabulsi—Hamilton action under the infinitesimal transformations of the group. Finally, Noether's theorems for the non-conservative Hamilton system under the El-Nabulsi dynamical system are established, which reveal the relationship between the Noether symmetry and the conserved quantity of the system.

  3. An Organizational Model and Dynamic Goal Model for Autonomous, Adaptive Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    DeLoach, Scott A; Oyenan, Walamitien H

    2006-01-01

    Systems are becoming more complex, in part due to increased customer requirements and the expectation that applications should be seamlessly integrated with other existing, often distributed applications and systems...

  4. Reasoning about Dynamic Normative Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Knobbout, Max; Dastani, Mehdi; Meyer, John-Jules Charles

    2014-01-01

    The use of normative systems is widely accepted as an effective approach to control and regulate the behaviour of agents in multiagent systems. When norms are added to a normative system, the behaviour of such a system changes. As of yet, there is no clear formal methodology to model the dynamics of

  5. Methodologies for Verification and Validation of Space Launch System (SLS) Structural Dynamic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coppolino, Robert N.

    2018-01-01

    Responses to challenges associated with verification and validation (V&V) of Space Launch System (SLS) structural dynamics models are presented in this paper. Four methodologies addressing specific requirements for V&V are discussed. (1) Residual Mode Augmentation (RMA), which has gained acceptance by various principals in the NASA community, defines efficient and accurate FEM modal sensitivity models that are useful in test-analysis correlation and reconciliation and parametric uncertainty studies. (2) Modified Guyan Reduction (MGR) and Harmonic Reduction (HR, introduced in 1976), developed to remedy difficulties encountered with the widely used Classical Guyan Reduction (CGR) method, are presented. MGR and HR are particularly relevant for estimation of "body dominant" target modes of shell-type SLS assemblies that have numerous "body", "breathing" and local component constituents. Realities associated with configuration features and "imperfections" cause "body" and "breathing" mode characteristics to mix resulting in a lack of clarity in the understanding and correlation of FEM- and test-derived modal data. (3) Mode Consolidation (MC) is a newly introduced procedure designed to effectively "de-feature" FEM and experimental modes of detailed structural shell assemblies for unambiguous estimation of "body" dominant target modes. Finally, (4) Experimental Mode Verification (EMV) is a procedure that addresses ambiguities associated with experimental modal analysis of complex structural systems. Specifically, EMV directly separates well-defined modal data from spurious and poorly excited modal data employing newly introduced graphical and coherence metrics.

  6. An Investigation on the Dynamics of High-Speed Systems Using Nonlinear Analytical Floating Ring Bearing Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Athanasios Chasalevris

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The scope of this paper is to investigate the dynamics of a rotor-bearing system of high-speed under recently developed analytical bearing models. The development of a theory that can yield the dynamic response of a high-speed system without short/long bearing approximation and without time-consuming numerical methods for the finite-length bearing model is the outcome of this work. The rotor system is introduced as a rigid body so that the dynamics of the system are influenced only from the nonlinear bearing forces which are introduced with closed form expressions. The outcome is a system of nonlinear equations and its solution produces the dynamic response of the high-speed system using exact analytical solution for the bearing forces. The transient dynamic response of the system is evaluated through the wide range of rotating speed and under different bearing solutions including short bearing approximation, presenting the subsynchronous components that are developed when instabilities occur. Time-frequency analysis of the resulting response time-series is presented and the outcome is compared with that obtained from numerical solution of the bearing lubrication and with the short bearing approximation model.

  7. A Stakeholder-Based System Dynamics Model of Return-to-Work: A Research Protocol.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Fish, Jon; Jeffries, Susan; Hettinger, Lawrence J

    2015-07-16

    Returning to work following a job-related injury or illness can be a complex process, influenced by a range of interrelated personal, psychosocial, and organizational components. System dynamics modelling (SDM) takes a sociotechnical systems perspective to view return-to-work (RTW) as a system made up of multiple feedback relationships between influential components. To build the RTW SDM, a mixed-method approach will be used. The first stage, that has already been completed, involved creating a baseline model using key informant interviews. Second, in two manufacturing companies, stakeholder-based models will be developed through interviews and focus groups with senior management, frontline workers, and frontline supervisors. Participants will be asked about the RTW process in general and more targeted questions regarding influential components. Participants will also be led through a reference mode exercise where they will be asked to estimate the direction, shape and magnitude of relationships between influential components. Data will be entered into the software program Vensim that provides a platform for visualizing system-structure and simulating the effects of adapting components. Finally, preliminary model validity testing will be conducted to provide insights on model generalizability and sensitivity. The proposed methodology will create a SDM of the RTW process using feedback relationships of influential components. It will also provide an important simulation tool to understand system behaviour that underlies complex RTW cases, and examine anticipated and unanticipated consequences of disability management policies. Significance for public healthWhile the incidence of occupational injuries and illnesses has declined over the past two decades, the proportion resulting in sickness absence has actually increased. Implementing strategies to address sickness absences and promote return-to-work (RTW) can significantly benefit physical and mental health, and

  8. Information model of trainee characteristics with definition of stochastic behavior of dynamic system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sumin, V. I.; Smolentseva, T. E.; Belokurov, S. V.; Lankin, O. V.

    2018-03-01

    In the work the process of formation of trainee characteristics with their subsequent change is analyzed and analyzed. Characteristics of trainees were obtained as a result of testing for each section of information on the chosen discipline. The results obtained during testing were input to the dynamic system. The area of control actions consisting of elements of the dynamic system is formed. The limit of deterministic predictability of element trajectories in dynamical systems based on local or global attractors is revealed. The dimension of the phase space of the dynamic system is determined, which allows estimating the parameters of the initial system. On the basis of time series of observations, it is possible to determine the predictability interval of all parameters, which make it possible to determine the behavior of the system discretely in time. Then the measure of predictability will be the sum of Lyapunov’s positive indicators, which are a quantitative measure for all elements of the system. The components for the formation of an algorithm allowing to determine the correlation dimension of the attractor for known initial experimental values of the variables are revealed. The generated algorithm makes it possible to carry out an experimental study of the dynamics of changes in the trainee’s parameters with initial uncertainty.

  9. Modeling and Dynamic Simulation of the Adjust and Control System Mechanism for Reactor CAREM-25

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Larreteguy, A.E; Mazufri, C.M

    2000-01-01

    The adjust and control system mechanism, MSAC, is an advanced, and in some senses unique, hydromechanical device.The efforts in modeling this mechanism are aimed to: Get a deep understanding of the physical phenomena involved,Identify the set of parameters relevant to the dynamics of the system,Allow the numerical simulation of the system,Predict the behavior of the mechanism in conditions other than that obtainable within the range of operation of the experimental setup (CEM), and Help in defining the design of the CAPEM (loop for testing the mechanism under high pressure/high temperature conditions).Thanks to the close interaction between the mechanics, the experimenters, and the modelists that compose the MSAC task force, it has been possible to suggest improvements, not only in the design of the mechanism, but also in the design and the operation of the pulse generator (GDP) and the rest of the CEM.This effort has led to a design mature enough so as to be tested in a high-pressure loop

  10. Establishment and verification of three-dimensional dynamic model for heavy-haul train-track coupled system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Pengfei; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

    2016-11-01

    For the long heavy-haul train, the basic principles of the inter-vehicle interaction and train-track dynamic interaction are analysed firstly. Based on the theories of train longitudinal dynamics and vehicle-track coupled dynamics, a three-dimensional (3-D) dynamic model of the heavy-haul train-track coupled system is established through a modularised method. Specifically, this model includes the subsystems such as the train control, the vehicle, the wheel-rail relation and the line geometries. And for the calculation of the wheel-rail interaction force under the driving or braking conditions, the large creep phenomenon that may occur within the wheel-rail contact patch is considered. For the coupler and draft gear system, the coupler forces in three directions and the coupler lateral tilt angles in curves are calculated. Then, according to the characteristics of the long heavy-haul train, an efficient solving method is developed to improve the computational efficiency for such a large system. Some basic principles which should be followed in order to meet the requirement of calculation accuracy are determined. Finally, the 3-D train-track coupled model is verified by comparing the calculated results with the running test results. It is indicated that the proposed dynamic model could simulate the dynamic performance of the heavy-haul train well.

  11. Validated dynamic flow model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Knudsen, Torben

    2011-01-01

    model structure suggested by University of Lund the WP4 leader. This particular model structure has the advantages that it fits better into the control design frame work used by WP3-4 compared to the model structures previously developed in WP2. The different model structures are first summarised....... Then issues dealing with optimal experimental design is considered. Finally the parameters are estimated in the chosen static and dynamic models and a validation is performed. Two of the static models, one of them the additive model, explains the data well. In case of dynamic models the suggested additive...

  12. A stochastic spatial model of HIV dynamics with an asymmetric battle between the virus and the immune system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Hai; Shuai, J W

    2010-01-01

    A stochastic spatial model based on the Monte Carlo approach is developed to study the dynamics of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection. We aim to propose a more detailed and realistic simulation frame by incorporating many important features of HIV dynamics, which include infections, replications and mutations of viruses, antigen recognitions, activations and proliferations of lymphocytes, and diffusions, encounters and interactions of virions and lymphocytes. Our model successfully reproduces the three-phase pattern observed in HIV infection, and the simulation results for the time distribution from infection to AIDS onset are also in good agreement with the clinical data. The interactions of viruses and the immune system in all the three phases are investigated. We assess the relative importance of various immune system components in the acute phase. The dynamics of how the two important factors, namely the viral diversity and the asymmetric battle between HIV and the immune system, result in AIDS are investigated in detail with the model.

  13. C++ Toolbox for Object-Oriented Modeling and Dynamic Simulation of Physical Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Falko Jens; Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin

    1999-01-01

    This paper presents the efforts made in an ongoing project that exploits the advantages of using object-oriented methodologies for describing and simulating dynamical systems. The background for this work is a search for new and better ways to simulate physical systems....

  14. Dynamic Latent Classification Model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhong, Shengtong; Martínez, Ana M.; Nielsen, Thomas Dyhre

    Monitoring a complex process often involves keeping an eye on hundreds or thousands of sensors to determine whether or not the process is under control. We have been working with dynamic data from an oil production facility in the North sea, where unstable situations should be identified as soon...... as possible. Motivated by this problem setting, we propose a generative model for dynamic classification in continuous domains. At each time point the model can be seen as combining a naive Bayes model with a mixture of factor analyzers (FA). The latent variables of the FA are used to capture the dynamics...... in the process as well as modeling dependences between attributes....

  15. Cosmological dynamical systems

    CERN Document Server

    Leon, Genly

    2011-01-01

    In this book are studied, from the perspective of the dynamical systems, several Universe models. In chapter 1 we give a bird's eye view on cosmology and cosmological problems. Chapter 2 is devoted to a brief review on some results and useful tools from the qualitative theory of dynamical systems. They provide the theoretical basis for the qualitative study of concrete cosmological models. Chapters 1 and 2 are a review of well-known results. Chapters 3, 4, 5 and 6 are devoted to our main results. In these chapters are extended and settled in a substantially different, more strict mathematical language, several results obtained by one of us in arXiv:0812.1013 [gr-qc]; arXiv:1009.0689 [gr-qc]; arXiv:0904.1577[gr-qc]; and arXiv:0909.3571 [hep-th]. In chapter 6, we provide a different approach to the subject discussed in astro-ph/0503478. Additionally, we perform a Poincar\\'e compactification process allowing to construct a global phase space containing all the cosmological information in both finite and infinite...

  16. A fully integrated Earth System Model: focus on dynamical coupling of climatic and cryospheric model sub-systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morozova, Polina; Volodin, Evgeny; Rybak, Oleg; Huybrechts, Philippe; Korneva, Irina; Kaminskaia, Mariia

    2017-04-01

    Earth system models (ESMs) have been widely used in the recent years for complex studies of the climate system of the planet in the context of interactions between the atmosphere, oceans, ice sheets and the biosphere. Incorporation of the Earth syb-systems with very different spatial and temporal scales and response times into one model is really a challenging task. In particular, coupling of an AO GCM and ice sheet models of Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) requires application of special downscaling procedures. Within the frameworks of our research study, we implemented several coupling strategies. The choice of a strategy is dictated mostly by two factors - by the purpose of the research and by spatial resolution of an AO GCM. Several versions of the latter (called INMCM) were developed in the Institute of Numerical Mathematics (Moscow, Russia). For instance, the version aimed primarily for the relatively long numerical experiments (for e.g. palaeostudies) has spatial resolution of 5°×4°, 21 vertical layers in the atmospheric block, 2.5°×2°, 33 vertical layers in the oceanic block. To provide proper data exchange between the INMCM and GrIS and AIS models (spatial resolution 20×20 km), we employ rather simple buffer (sub-) models, describing regional heat and moisture diffusion. Applying buffer models enables to avoid systematic shifts in INMCM-generated precipitation fields and to much more realistically describe influence orographically driven precipitation (in Greenland) and elevation-temperature dependence. Novel versions of the INMCM with the spatial resolution of 2,5°×2° and higher generate much more realistic climatic fields, therefore the coupling procedure can be simplified to just averaging, resampling and remapping data from the AO GCM global domain to regional domains enclosing ice sheets. Increase in spatial resolution inevitably causes additional computational cost and reduces the area of the ESM application to

  17. A System Dynamics Model to Conserve Arid Region Water Resources through Aquifer Storage and Recovery in Conjunction with a Dam

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amir Niazi

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater depletion poses a significant threat in arid and semi-arid areas where rivers are usually ephemeral and groundwater is the major source of water. The present study investigated whether an effective water resources management strategy, capable of minimizing evaporative water losses and groundwater depletion while providing water for expanded agricultural activities, can be achieved through aquifer storage and recovery (ASR implemented in conjunction with water storage in an ephemeral river. A regional development modeling framework, including both ASR and a dam design developed through system dynamics modeling, was validated using a case study for the Sirik region of Iran. The system dynamics model of groundwater flow and the comprehensive system dynamics model developed in this study showed that ASR was a beneficial strategy for the region’s farmers and the groundwater system, since the rate of groundwater depletion declined significantly (from 14.5 meters per 40 years to three meters over the same period. Furthermore, evaporation from the reservoir decreased by 50 million cubic meters over the simulation period. It was concluded that the proposed system dynamics model is an effective tool in helping to conserve water resources and reduce depletion in arid regions and semi-arid areas.

  18. Forecasting the regional distribution and sufficiency of physicians in Japan with a coupled system dynamics-geographic information system model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ishikawa, Tomoki; Fujiwara, Kensuke; Ohba, Hisateru; Suzuki, Teppei; Ogasawara, Katsuhiko

    2017-09-12

    In Japan, the shortage of physicians has been recognized as a major medical issue. In our previous study, we reported that the absolute shortage will be resolved in the long term, but maldistribution among specialties will persist. To address regional shortage, several Japanese medical schools increased existing quota and established "regional quotas." This study aims to assist policy makers in designing effective policies; we built a model for forecasting physician numbers by region to evaluate future physician supply-demand balances. For our case study, we selected Hokkaido Prefecture in Japan, a region displaying disparities in healthcare services availability between urban and rural areas. We combined a system dynamics (SD) model with geographic information system (GIS) technology to analyze the dynamic change in spatial distribution of indicators. For Hokkaido overall and for each secondary medical service area (SMSA) within the prefecture, we analyzed the total number of practicing physicians. For evaluating absolute shortage and maldistribution, we calculated sufficiency levels and Gini coefficient. Our study covered the period 2010-2030 in 5-year increments. According to our forecast, physician shortage in Hokkaido Prefecture will largely be resolved by 2020. Based on current policies, we forecast that four SMSAs in Hokkaido will continue to experience physician shortages past that date, but only one SMSA would still be understaffed in 2030. The results show the possibility that diminishing imbalances between SMSAs would not necessarily mean that regional maldistribution would be eliminated, as seen from the sufficiency levels of the various SMSAs. Urgent steps should be taken to place doctors in areas where our forecasting model predicts that physician shortages could occur in the future.

  19. System Dynamics Modeling on Integrated Supply Chain Management of Potato Agribusiness

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukman Hakim

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available The objectives of this study is to design a model of integrated supply chain management of potato agribusiness in an effort to increase revenue and bargaining position of farmers in Aceh Province. The method applied to achieve these objectives was the methodology of system dynamics. Formulation of the models was conducted by using Vensim DSS Software, followed by simulation. The result of this study showed the role of five major scenarios which were important to actualize the integrated supply chain management of potato agribusiness in Aceh Province, those were: scenario 1, increasing the productive land area, resulting in the increasing of production volume; scenario 2, using the certified potato seed named “umbi G2”, generating the higher level of production; scenario 3, providing the certified potato seed based on the needs, showing that the quantity of production increased; scenario 4, shortening the payment receivables interval of farmers and cooperatives, which showing the increasing of cash amount; scenario 5, doing certification to the potato from synergistic partnerships farmers, showing the increasing of acceptance, profitability, R/C, and cash.

  20. Chapter 15: Using System Dynamics to Model Industry's Developmental Response to Energy Policy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bush, Brian; Inman, Daniel; Newes, Emily; Peck, Corey; Peterson, Steve; Stright, Dana; Vimmerstedt, Laura

    2016-11-01

    In this chapter we explore the potential development of the biofuels industry using the Biomass Scenario Model (BSM), a system dynamics model developed at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory through the support of the U.S. Department of Energy. The BSM is designed to analyze the implications of policy on the development of the supply chain for biofuels in the United States. It explicitly represents the behavior of decision makers such as farmers, investors, fueling station owners, and consumers. We analyze several illustrative case studies that explore a range of policies and discuss how incentives interact with individual parts of the supply chain as well as the industry as a whole. The BSM represents specific incentives that are intended to approximate policy in the form of selected laws and regulations. Through characterizing the decision making behaviors of economic actors within the supply chain that critically influence the adoption rate of new biofuels production technologies and demonstrating synergies among policies, we find that incentives with coordinated impacts on each major element of the supply chain catalyze net effects of decision maker behavior such that the combined incentives are greater than the summed effects of individual incentives in isolation.

  1. Research on the Sustainable Development of Green-Space in Beijing Using the Dynamic Systems Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fangzheng Li

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Greater contradiction and conflict among urban green space, the development of social economy and the environment have occurred in Beijing. However, few studies have been conducted that consider the three subsystems as a whole. In this study, we defined sustainable development of green space (SDGS as the coordinated development of the urban green system, social economy, and environment. Based on the datasets from 2000 to 2015, we forecast the SDGS in Beijing under multiple scenarios based on real-world policies using a system dynamics model. We found that the historical SDGS value increased to its highest level in 2012, but declined slightly by 2015. Second, the forecasted SDGS values declined over time in all scenarios, but the decline was greater in scenarios placing a high priority on economic development. In these scenarios, the performance of the indices only improved in certain subsystems. The simulation shows the implementation of the four policies proposed by the government failed to improve the overall level of SDGS in Beijing. This study could provide support for decision-making designed to improve the overall condition of urban green space in Beijing through integrated forecast and scenario simulation.

  2. Elucidation of the conformational dynamics of multi-body systems by construction of Markov state models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Lizhe; Sheong, Fu Kit; Zeng, Xiangze; Huang, Xuhui

    2016-11-09

    Constructing Markov State Models (MSMs) based on short molecular dynamics simulations is a powerful computational technique to complement experiments in predicting long-time kinetics of biomolecular processes at atomic resolution. Even though the MSM approach has been widely applied to study one-body processes such as protein folding and enzyme conformational changes, the majority of biological processes, e.g. protein-ligand recognition, signal transduction, and protein aggregation, essentially involve multiple entities. Here we review the attempts at constructing MSMs for multi-body systems, point out the challenges therein and discuss recent algorithmic progresses that alleviate these challenges. In particular, we describe an automatic kinetics based partitioning method that achieves optimal definition of the conformational states in a multi-body system, and discuss a novel maximum-likelihood approach that efficiently estimates the slow uphill kinetics utilizing pre-computed equilibrium populations of all states. We expect that these new algorithms and their combinations may boost investigations of important multi-body biological processes via the efficient construction of MSMs.

  3. Model describes subsea control dynamics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-02-01

    A mathematical model of the hydraulic control systems for subsea completions and their umbilicals has been developed and applied successfully to Jabiru and Challis field production projects in the Timor Sea. The model overcomes the limitations of conventional linear steady state models and yields for the hydraulic system an accurate description of its dynamic response, including the valve shut-in times and the pressure transients. Results of numerical simulations based on the model are in good agreement with measurements of the dynamic response of the tree valves and umbilicals made during land testing.

  4. A system dynamics model of clinical decision thresholds for the detection of developmental-behavioral disorders

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Christopher Sheldrick

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Clinical decision-making has been conceptualized as a sequence of two separate processes: assessment of patients’ functioning and application of a decision threshold to determine whether the evidence is sufficient to justify a given decision. A range of factors, including use of evidence-based screening instruments, has the potential to influence either or both processes. However, implementation studies seldom specify or assess the mechanism by which screening is hypothesized to influence clinical decision-making, thus limiting their ability to address unexpected findings regarding clinicians’ behavior. Building on prior theory and empirical evidence, we created a system dynamics (SD model of how physicians’ clinical decisions are influenced by their assessments of patients and by factors that may influence decision thresholds, such as knowledge of past patient outcomes. Using developmental-behavioral disorders as a case example, we then explore how referral decisions may be influenced by changes in context. Specifically, we compare predictions from the SD model to published implementation trials of evidence-based screening to understand physicians’ management of positive screening results and changes in referral rates. We also conduct virtual experiments regarding the influence of a variety of interventions that may influence physicians’ thresholds, including improved access to co-located mental health care and improved feedback systems regarding patient outcomes. Results Results of the SD model were consistent with recent implementation trials. For example, the SD model suggests that if screening improves physicians’ accuracy of assessment without also influencing decision thresholds, then a significant proportion of children with positive screens will not be referred and the effect of screening implementation on referral rates will be modest—results that are consistent with a large proportion of published

  5. On dynamics of seismicity simulated by the models of blocks-and-faults systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. A. Vorobieva

    1997-06-01

    Full Text Available The major results obtained by numerical simulation of block structure dynamics are juxtaposed and analysed: the possibilities to reconstruct tectonic driving forces from territorial distribution of seismicity, clustering of earthquakes in the model, and dependence of the occurrence of strong earthquakes on fragmentation of the media, and on rotation of blocks. These results show that modelling of block structure dynamics is a useful tool to study relations between the geometry of faults and block movements and earthquake flow, including premonitory seismicity patterns, to test the existing earthquake prediction algorithms, and to develop new ones.

  6. Exploring agricultural production systems and their fundamental components with system dynamics modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agricultural production in the United States is undergoing marked changes due to rapid shifts in consumer demands, input costs, and concerns for food safety and environmental impact. Agricultural production systems are comprised of multidimensional components and drivers that interact in complex wa...

  7. Dynamics of stochastic systems

    CERN Document Server

    Klyatskin, Valery I

    2005-01-01

    Fluctuating parameters appear in a variety of physical systems and phenomena. They typically come either as random forces/sources, or advecting velocities, or media (material) parameters, like refraction index, conductivity, diffusivity, etc. The well known example of Brownian particle suspended in fluid and subjected to random molecular bombardment laid the foundation for modern stochastic calculus and statistical physics. Other important examples include turbulent transport and diffusion of particle-tracers (pollutants), or continuous densities (''''oil slicks''''), wave propagation and scattering in randomly inhomogeneous media, for instance light or sound propagating in the turbulent atmosphere.Such models naturally render to statistical description, where the input parameters and solutions are expressed by r