Experimental Modeling of Dynamic Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Knudsen, Morten Haack
2006-01-01
An engineering course, Simulation and Experimental Modeling, has been developed that is based on a method for direct estimation of physical parameters in dynamic systems. Compared with classical system identification, the method appears to be easier to understand, apply, and combine with physical...
System Dynamics Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn
2008-01-01
/methodology/approach - We use a case study model to develop time or dynamic dimensions by using a System Dynamics modelling (SDM) approach. The model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non-financial measures. All indicators are defined and related to a coherent number of different cause...... have a major influence on other indicators and profit and may be impossible to predict without using a dynamic model. Practical implications - The model may be used as the first step in quantifying the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Using the System Dynamics model provides......Purpose - To construct a dynamic model/framework inspired by a case study based on an international company. As described by the theory, one of the main difficulties of BSC is to foresee the time lag dimension of different types of indicators and their combined dynamic effects. Design...
System dynamics modelling of situation awareness
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Oosthuizen, R
2015-11-01
Full Text Available . The feedback loops and delays in the Command and Control system also contribute to the complex dynamic behavior. This paper will build on existing situation awareness models to develop a System Dynamics model to support a qualitative investigation through...
Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome†
Estes, Anne M.
2015-01-01
“Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1) niche availability and habitat space and 2) a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determi...
Stirling Engine Dynamic System Modeling
Nakis, Christopher G.
2004-01-01
The Thermo-Mechanical systems branch at the Glenn Research Center focuses a large amount time on Stirling engines. These engines will be used on missions where solar power is inefficient, especially in deep space. I work with Tim Regan and Ed Lewandowski who are currently developing and validating a mathematical model for the Stirling engines. This model incorporates all aspects of the system including, mechanical, electrical and thermodynamic components. Modeling is done through Simplorer, a program capable of running simulations of the model. Once created and then proven to be accurate, a model is used for developing new ideas for engine design. My largest specific project involves varying key parameters in the model and quantifying the results. This can all be done relatively trouble-free with the help of Simplorer. Once the model is complete, Simplorer will do all the necessary calculations. The more complicated part of this project is determining which parameters to vary. Finding key parameters depends on the potential for a value to be independently altered in the design. For example, a change in one dimension may lead to a proportional change to the rest of the model, and no real progress is made. Also, the ability for a changed value to have a substantial impact on the outputs of the system is important. Results will be condensed into graphs and tables with the purpose of better communication and understanding of the data. With the changing of these parameters, a more optimal design can be created without having to purchase or build any models. Also, hours and hours of results can be simulated in minutes. In the long run, using mathematical models can save time and money. Along with this project, I have many other smaller assignments throughout the summer. My main goal is to assist in the processes of model development, validation and testing.
Dynamic modeling of the INAPRO aquaponic system
Karimanzira, Divas; Keesman, Karel J.; Kloas, Werner; Baganz, Daniela; Rauschenbach, Thomas
2016-01-01
The use of modeling techniques to analyze aquaponics systems is demonstrated with an example of dynamic modeling for the production of Nile tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) and tomatoes (Solanum lycopersicon) using the innovative double recirculating aquaponic system ASTAF-PRO. For the management
Understanding and Modeling Teams As Dynamical Systems
Gorman, Jamie C.; Dunbar, Terri A.; Grimm, David; Gipson, Christina L.
2017-01-01
By its very nature, much of teamwork is distributed across, and not stored within, interdependent people working toward a common goal. In this light, we advocate a systems perspective on teamwork that is based on general coordination principles that are not limited to cognitive, motor, and physiological levels of explanation within the individual. In this article, we present a framework for understanding and modeling teams as dynamical systems and review our empirical findings on teams as dynamical systems. We proceed by (a) considering the question of why study teams as dynamical systems, (b) considering the meaning of dynamical systems concepts (attractors; perturbation; synchronization; fractals) in the context of teams, (c) describe empirical studies of team coordination dynamics at the perceptual-motor, cognitive-behavioral, and cognitive-neurophysiological levels of analysis, and (d) consider the theoretical and practical implications of this approach, including new kinds of explanations of human performance and real-time analysis and performance modeling. Throughout our discussion of the topics we consider how to describe teamwork using equations and/or modeling techniques that describe the dynamics. Finally, we consider what dynamical equations and models do and do not tell us about human performance in teams and suggest future research directions in this area. PMID:28744231
System Dynamics Modeling of Multipurpose Reservoir Operation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ebrahim Momeni
2006-03-01
Full Text Available System dynamics, a feedback – based object – oriented simulation approach, not only represents complex dynamic systemic systems in a realistic way but also allows the involvement of end users in model development to increase their confidence in modeling process. The increased speed of model development, the possibility of group model development, the effective communication of model results, and the trust developed in the model due to user participation are the main strengths of this approach. The ease of model modification in response to changes in the system and the ability to perform sensitivity analysis make this approach more attractive compared with systems analysis techniques for modeling water management systems. In this study, a system dynamics model was developed for the Zayandehrud basin in central Iran. This model contains river basin, dam reservoir, plains, irrigation systems, and groundwater. Current operation rule is conjunctive use of ground and surface water. Allocation factor for each irrigation system is computed based on the feedback from groundwater storage in its zone. Deficit water is extracted from groundwater.The results show that applying better rules can not only satisfy all demands such as Gawkhuni swamp environmental demand, but it can also prevent groundwater level drawdown in future.
Session 6: Dynamic Modeling and Systems Analysis
Csank, Jeffrey; Chapman, Jeffryes; May, Ryan
2013-01-01
These presentations cover some of the ongoing work in dynamic modeling and dynamic systems analysis. The first presentation discusses dynamic systems analysis and how to integrate dynamic performance information into the systems analysis. The ability to evaluate the dynamic performance of an engine design may allow tradeoffs between the dynamic performance and operability of a design resulting in a more efficient engine design. The second presentation discusses the Toolbox for Modeling and Analysis of Thermodynamic Systems (T-MATS). T-MATS is a Simulation system with a library containing the basic building blocks that can be used to create dynamic Thermodynamic Systems. Some of the key features include Turbo machinery components, such as turbines, compressors, etc., and basic control system blocks. T-MAT is written in the Matlab-Simulink environment and is open source software. The third presentation focuses on getting additional performance from the engine by allowing the limit regulators only to be active when a limit is danger of being violated. Typical aircraft engine control architecture is based on MINMAX scheme, which is designed to keep engine operating within prescribed mechanical/operational safety limits. Using a conditionally active min-max limit regulator scheme, additional performance can be gained by disabling non-relevant limit regulators
Brand Equity Evolution: a System Dynamics Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Edson Crescitelli
2009-04-01
Full Text Available One of the greatest challenges in brand management lies in monitoring brand equity over time. This paper aimsto present a simulation model able to represent this evolution. The model was drawn on brand equity concepts developed by Aaker and Joachimsthaler (2000, using the system dynamics methodology. The use ofcomputational dynamic models aims to create new sources of information able to sensitize academics and managers alike to the dynamic implications of their brand management. As a result, an easily implementable model was generated, capable of executing continuous scenario simulations by surveying casual relations among the variables that explain brand equity. Moreover, the existence of a number of system modeling tools will allow extensive application of the concepts used in this study in practical situations, both in professional and educational settings
Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Red-Horse, J.R.
1997-04-01
Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shin, Seung Ki; Seong, Poong Hyun
2008-01-01
Conventional static reliability analysis methods are inadequate for modeling dynamic interactions between components of a system. Various techniques such as dynamic fault tree, dynamic Bayesian networks, and dynamic reliability block diagrams have been proposed for modeling dynamic systems based on improvement of the conventional modeling methods. In this paper, we review these methods briefly and introduce dynamic nodes to the existing Reliability Graph with General Gates (RGGG) as an intuitive modeling method to model dynamic systems. For a quantitative analysis, we use a discrete-time method to convert an RGGG to an equivalent Bayesian network and develop a software tool for generation of probability tables
Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Anne M. Estes
2015-08-01
Full Text Available “Modeling the Dynamic Digestive System Microbiome” is a hands-on activity designed to demonstrate the dynamics of microbiome ecology using dried pasta and beans to model disturbance events in the human digestive system microbiome. This exercise demonstrates how microbiome diversity is influenced by: 1 niche availability and habitat space and 2 a major disturbance event, such as antibiotic use. Students use a pictorial key to examine prepared models of digestive system microbiomes to determine what the person with the microbiome “ate.” Students then model the effect of taking antibiotics by removing certain “antibiotic sensitive” pasta. Finally, they add in “environmental microbes” or “native microbes” to recolonize the digestive system, determine how resilient their model microbome community is to disturbance, and discuss the implications. Throughout the exercise, students discuss differences in the habitat space available and microbiome community diversity. This exercise can be modified to discuss changes in the microbiome due to diet shifts and the emergence of antibiotic resistance in more depth.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Do Hun; Mun, Tae Hun; Kim, Dong Hwan
1999-02-01
This book introduces systems thinking and conceptual tool and modeling tool of dynamics system such as tragedy of single thinking, accessible way of system dynamics, feedback structure and causal loop diagram analysis, basic of system dynamics modeling, causal loop diagram and system dynamics modeling, information delay modeling, discovery and application for policy, modeling of crisis of agricultural and stock breeding products, dynamic model and lesson in ecosystem, development and decadence of cites and innovation of education forward system thinking.
Coupling population dynamics with earth system models: the POPEM model.
Navarro, Andrés; Moreno, Raúl; Jiménez-Alcázar, Alfonso; Tapiador, Francisco J
2017-09-16
Precise modeling of CO 2 emissions is important for environmental research. This paper presents a new model of human population dynamics that can be embedded into ESMs (Earth System Models) to improve climate modeling. Through a system dynamics approach, we develop a cohort-component model that successfully simulates historical population dynamics with fine spatial resolution (about 1°×1°). The population projections are used to improve the estimates of CO 2 emissions, thus transcending the bulk approach of existing models and allowing more realistic non-linear effects to feature in the simulations. The module, dubbed POPEM (from Population Parameterization for Earth Models), is compared with current emission inventories and validated against UN aggregated data. Finally, it is shown that the module can be used to advance toward fully coupling the social and natural components of the Earth system, an emerging research path for environmental science and pollution research.
Dynamic Causal Models and Autopoietic Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
OLIVIER DAVID
2007-01-01
Full Text Available Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM and the theory of autopoietic systems are two important conceptual frameworks. In this review, we suggest that they can be combined to answer important questions about self-organising systems like the brain. DCM has been developed recently by the neuroimaging community to explain, using biophysical models, the non-invasive brain imaging data are caused by neural processes. It allows one to ask mechanistic questions about the implementation of cerebral processes. In DCM the parameters of biophysical models are estimated from measured data and the evidence for each model is evaluated. This enables one to test different functional hypotheses (i.e., models for a given data set. Autopoiesis and related formal theories of biological systems as autonomous machines represent a body of concepts with many successful applications. However, autopoiesis has remained largely theoretical and has not penetrated the empiricism of cognitive neuroscience. In this review, we try to show the connections that exist between DCM and autopoiesis. In particular, we propose a simple modification to standard formulations of DCM that includes autonomous processes. The idea is to exploit the machinery of the system identification of DCMs in neuroimaging to test the face validity of the autopoietic theory applied to neural subsystems. We illustrate the theoretical concepts and their implications for interpreting electroencephalographic signals acquired during amygdala stimulation in an epileptic patient. The results suggest that DCM represents a relevant biophysical approach to brain functional organisation, with a potential that is yet to be fully evaluated
Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems
Ukkusuri, Satish V
2013-01-01
This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.
Dynamical system analysis of interacting models
Carneiro, S.; Borges, H. A.
2018-01-01
We perform a dynamical system analysis of a cosmological model with linear dependence between the vacuum density and the Hubble parameter, with constant-rate creation of dark matter. We show that the de Sitter spacetime is an asymptotically stable critical point, future limit of any expanding solution. Our analysis also shows that the Minkowski spacetime is an unstable critical point, which eventually collapses to a singularity. In this way, such a prescription for the vacuum decay not only predicts the correct future de Sitter limit, but also forbids the existence of a stable Minkowski universe. We also study the effect of matter creation on the growth of structures and their peculiar velocities, showing that it is inside the current errors of redshift space distortions observations.
Modelling the crop: from system dynamics to systems biology
Yin, X.; Struik, P.C.
2010-01-01
There is strong interplant competition in a crop stand for various limiting resources, resulting in complex compensation and regulation mechanisms along the developmental cascade of the whole crop. Despite decades-long use of principles in system dynamics (e.g. feedback control), current crop models
Dynamic Modeling of ThermoFluid Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Jensen, Jakob Munch
2003-01-01
The objective of the present study has been to developed dynamic models for two-phase flow in pipes (evaporation and condensation). Special attention has been given to modeling evaporators for refrigeration plant particular dry-expansion evaporators. Models of different complexity have been...... formulated. The different models deviate with respect to the detail¿s included and calculation time in connection with simulation. The models have been implemented in a new library named ThermoTwoPhase to the programming language Modelica. A test rig has been built with an evaporator instrumented in a way...
OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.
Ogbunugafor, C Brandon; Robinson, Sean P
2016-01-01
Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL.) Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative) abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.
OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
C Brandon Ogbunugafor
Full Text Available Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL. Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.
System Dynamics Modeling for Supply Chain Information Sharing
Feng, Yang
In this paper, we try to use the method of system dynamics to model supply chain information sharing. Firstly, we determine the model boundaries, establish system dynamics model of supply chain before information sharing, analyze the model's simulation results under different changed parameters and suggest improvement proposal. Then, we establish system dynamics model of supply chain information sharing and make comparison and analysis on the two model's simulation results, to show the importance of information sharing in supply chain management. We wish that all these simulations would provide scientific supports for enterprise decision-making.
Analytical system dynamics modeling and simulation
Fabien, Brian C
2008-01-01
This book offering a modeling technique based on Lagrange's energy method includes 125 worked examples. Using this technique enables one to model and simulate systems as diverse as a six-link, closed-loop mechanism or a transistor power amplifier.
Models for inference in dynamic metacommunity systems
Dorazio, Robert M.; Kery, Marc; Royle, J. Andrew; Plattner, Matthias
2010-01-01
A variety of processes are thought to be involved in the formation and dynamics of species assemblages. For example, various metacommunity theories are based on differences in the relative contributions of dispersal of species among local communities and interactions of species within local communities. Interestingly, metacommunity theories continue to be advanced without much empirical validation. Part of the problem is that statistical models used to analyze typical survey data either fail to specify ecological processes with sufficient complexity or they fail to account for errors in detection of species during sampling. In this paper, we describe a statistical modeling framework for the analysis of metacommunity dynamics that is based on the idea of adopting a unified approach, multispecies occupancy modeling, for computing inferences about individual species, local communities of species, or the entire metacommunity of species. This approach accounts for errors in detection of species during sampling and also allows different metacommunity paradigms to be specified in terms of species- and location-specific probabilities of occurrence, extinction, and colonization: all of which are estimable. In addition, this approach can be used to address inference problems that arise in conservation ecology, such as predicting temporal and spatial changes in biodiversity for use in making conservation decisions. To illustrate, we estimate changes in species composition associated with the species-specific phenologies of flight patterns of butterflies in Switzerland for the purpose of estimating regional differences in biodiversity.
Urban eco-efficiency and system dynamics modelling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hradil, P., Email: petr.hradil@vtt.fi
2012-06-15
Assessment of urban development is generally based on static models of economic, social or environmental impacts. More advanced dynamic models have been used mostly for prediction of population and employment changes as well as for other macro-economic issues. This feasibility study was arranged to test the potential of system dynamic modelling in assessing eco-efficiency changes during urban development. (orig.)
Structural Identifiability of Dynamic Systems Biology Models.
Villaverde, Alejandro F; Barreiro, Antonio; Papachristodoulou, Antonis
2016-10-01
A powerful way of gaining insight into biological systems is by creating a nonlinear differential equation model, which usually contains many unknown parameters. Such a model is called structurally identifiable if it is possible to determine the values of its parameters from measurements of the model outputs. Structural identifiability is a prerequisite for parameter estimation, and should be assessed before exploiting a model. However, this analysis is seldom performed due to the high computational cost involved in the necessary symbolic calculations, which quickly becomes prohibitive as the problem size increases. In this paper we show how to analyse the structural identifiability of a very general class of nonlinear models by extending methods originally developed for studying observability. We present results about models whose identifiability had not been previously determined, report unidentifiabilities that had not been found before, and show how to modify those unidentifiable models to make them identifiable. This method helps prevent problems caused by lack of identifiability analysis, which can compromise the success of tasks such as experiment design, parameter estimation, and model-based optimization. The procedure is called STRIKE-GOLDD (STRuctural Identifiability taKen as Extended-Generalized Observability with Lie Derivatives and Decomposition), and it is implemented in a MATLAB toolbox which is available as open source software. The broad applicability of this approach facilitates the analysis of the increasingly complex models used in systems biology and other areas.
Modelling Dynamic Forgetting in Distributed Information Systems
N.F. Höning (Nicolas); M.C. Schut
2010-01-01
htmlabstractWe describe and model a new aspect in the design of distributed information systems. We build upon a previously described problem on the microlevel, which asks how quickly agents should discount (forget) their experience: If they cherish their memories, they can build their reports on
System Dynamics (SD) models are useful for holistic integration of data to evaluate indirect and cumulative effects and inform decisions. Complex SD models can provide key insights into how decisions affect the three interconnected pillars of sustainability. However, the complexi...
Handbook of electrical power system dynamics modeling, stability, and control
Eremia, Mircea
2013-01-01
Complete guidance for understanding electrical power system dynamics and blackouts This handbook offers a comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of power system dynamics. Addressing the full range of topics, from the fundamentals to the latest technologies in modeling, stability, and control, Handbook of Electrical Power System Dynamics provides engineers with hands-on guidance for understanding the phenomena leading to blackouts so they can design the most appropriate solutions for a cost-effective and reliable operation. Focusing on system dynamics, the book details
Evaluating system behavior through Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD) modeling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu, Y.-S.; Modarres, Mohammad
1999-01-01
In this paper, the Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD) is introduced for representing full-scale time-dependent behavior and uncertain behavior of complex physical systems. Conceptually, the DMLD allows one to decompose a complex system hierarchically to model and to represent: (1) partial success/failure of the system, (2) full-scale logical, physical and fuzzy connectivity relations, (3) probabilistic, resolutional or linguistic uncertainty, (4) multiple-state system dynamics, and (5) floating threshold and transition effects. To demonstrate the technique, examples of using DMLD to model, to diagnose and to control dynamic behavior of a system are presented. A DMLD-based expert system building tool, called Dynamic Reliability Expert System (DREXs), is introduced to automate the DMLD modeling process
System Dynamics Modeling for Emergency Operating System Resilience
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Eng, Ang Wei; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)
2014-10-15
The purpose of this paper is to present a causal model which explain human error cause-effect relationships of emergency operating system (EOS) by using system dynamics (SD) approach. The causal model will further quantified by analyzes nuclear power plant incidents/accidents data in Korea for simulation modeling. Emergency Operating System (EOS) is generally defined as a system which consists personnel, human-machine interface and procedures; and how these components interact and coordinate to respond to an incident or accident. Understanding the behavior of EOS especially personnel behavior and the factors influencing it during accident will contribute in human reliability evaluation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method which assesses how human decisions and actions affect to system risk and further used to reduce the human errors probability. There are many HRA method used performance influencing factors (PIFs) to identify the causes of human errors. However, these methods have several limitations. In HRA, PIFs are assumed independent each other and relationship between them are not been study. Through the SD simulation, users able to simulate various situation of nuclear power plant respond to emergency from human and organizational aspects. The simulation also provides users a comprehensive view on how to improve the safety in plants. This paper presents a causal model that explained cause-effect relationships of EOS human. Through SD simulation, users able to identify the main contribution of human error easily. Users can also use SD simulation to predict when and how a human error occurs over time. In future work, the SD model can be expanded more on low level factors. The relationship within low level factors can investigated by using correlation method and further included in the model. This can enables users to study more detailed human error cause-effect relationships and the behavior of EOS. Another improvement can be made is on EOS factors
System Dynamics Modeling for Emergency Operating System Resilience
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Eng, Ang Wei; Kim, Jong Hyun
2014-01-01
The purpose of this paper is to present a causal model which explain human error cause-effect relationships of emergency operating system (EOS) by using system dynamics (SD) approach. The causal model will further quantified by analyzes nuclear power plant incidents/accidents data in Korea for simulation modeling. Emergency Operating System (EOS) is generally defined as a system which consists personnel, human-machine interface and procedures; and how these components interact and coordinate to respond to an incident or accident. Understanding the behavior of EOS especially personnel behavior and the factors influencing it during accident will contribute in human reliability evaluation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method which assesses how human decisions and actions affect to system risk and further used to reduce the human errors probability. There are many HRA method used performance influencing factors (PIFs) to identify the causes of human errors. However, these methods have several limitations. In HRA, PIFs are assumed independent each other and relationship between them are not been study. Through the SD simulation, users able to simulate various situation of nuclear power plant respond to emergency from human and organizational aspects. The simulation also provides users a comprehensive view on how to improve the safety in plants. This paper presents a causal model that explained cause-effect relationships of EOS human. Through SD simulation, users able to identify the main contribution of human error easily. Users can also use SD simulation to predict when and how a human error occurs over time. In future work, the SD model can be expanded more on low level factors. The relationship within low level factors can investigated by using correlation method and further included in the model. This can enables users to study more detailed human error cause-effect relationships and the behavior of EOS. Another improvement can be made is on EOS factors
Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach
Muminova, Adiba
2015-01-01
This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...
A Comprehensive Method for Comparing Mental Models of Dynamic Systems
Schaffernicht, Martin; Grösser, Stefan N.
2011-01-01
Mental models are the basis on which managers make decisions even though external decision support systems may provide help. Research has demonstrated that more comprehensive and dynamic mental models seem to be at the foundation for improved policies and decisions. Eliciting and comparing such models can systematically explicate key variables and their main underlying structures. In addition, superior dynamic mental models can be identified. This paper reviews existing studies which measure ...
The Financial Accounting Model from a System Dynamics' Perspective
Melse, Eric
2006-01-01
This paper explores the foundation of the financial accounting model. We examine the properties of the accounting equation as the principal algorithm for the design and the development of a System Dynamics model. Key to the perspective is the foundational requirement that resolves the temporal conflict that resides in a stock and flow model. Through formal analysis the accounting equation is redefined as a cybernetic model by expressing the temporal and dynamic properties of its terms. Articu...
Cognitive Models for Learning to Control Dynamic Systems
National Research Council Canada - National Science Library
Eberhart, Russ; Hu, Xiaohui; Chen, Yaobin
2008-01-01
Report developed under STTR contract for topic "Cognitive models for learning to control dynamic systems" demonstrated a swarm intelligence learning algorithm and its application in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mission planning...
Dynamic Systems Modeling in Educational System Design & Policy
Groff, Jennifer Sterling
2013-01-01
Over the last several hundred years, local and national educational systems have evolved from relatively simple systems to incredibly complex, interdependent, policy-laden structures, to which many question their value, effectiveness, and direction they are headed. System Dynamics is a field of analysis used to guide policy and system design in…
System dynamics and control with bond graph modeling
Kypuros, Javier
2013-01-01
Part I Dynamic System ModelingIntroduction to System DynamicsIntroductionSystem Decomposition and Model ComplexityMathematical Modeling of Dynamic SystemsAnalysis and Design of Dynamic SystemsControl of Dynamic SystemsDiagrams of Dynamic SystemsA Graph-Centered Approach to ModelingSummaryPracticeExercisesBasic Bond Graph ElementsIntroductionPower and Energy VariablesBasic 1-Port ElementsBasic 2-Ports ElementsJunction ElementsSimple Bond Graph ExamplesSummaryPracticeExercisesBond Graph Synthesis and Equation DerivationIntroductionGeneral GuidelinesMechanical TranslationMechanical RotationElectrical CircuitsHydraulic CircuitsMixed SystemsState Equation DerivationState-Space RepresentationsAlgebraic Loops and Derivative CausalitySummaryPracticeExercisesImpedance Bond GraphsIntroductionLaplace Transform of the State-Space EquationBasic 1-Port ImpedancesImpedance Bond Graph SynthesisJunctions, Transformers, and GyratorsEffort and Flow DividersSign ChangesTransfer Function DerivationAlternative Derivation of Transf...
Volume Dynamics Propulsion System Modeling for Supersonics Vehicle Research
Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Paxson, Daniel E.; Ma, Peter
2010-01-01
Under the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program the Supersonics Project is working to overcome the obstacles to supersonic commercial flight. The proposed vehicles are long slim body aircraft with pronounced aero-servo-elastic modes. These modes can potentially couple with propulsion system dynamics; leading to performance challenges such as aircraft ride quality and stability. Other disturbances upstream of the engine generated from atmospheric wind gusts, angle of attack, and yaw can have similar effects. In addition, for optimal propulsion system performance, normal inlet-engine operations are required to be closer to compressor stall and inlet unstart. To study these phenomena an integrated model is needed that includes both airframe structural dynamics as well as the propulsion system dynamics. This paper covers the propulsion system component volume dynamics modeling of a turbojet engine that will be used for an integrated vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic model and for propulsion efficiency studies.
A Dynamic Systems Theory Model of Visual Perception Development
Coté, Carol A.
2015-01-01
This article presents a model for understanding the development of visual perception from a dynamic systems theory perspective. It contrasts to a hierarchical or reductionist model that is often found in the occupational therapy literature. In this proposed model vision and ocular motor abilities are not foundational to perception, they are seen…
Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.
The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...
Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach
Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...
Aggregated Wind Park Models for Analysing Power System Dynamics
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Poeller, Markus; Achilles, Sebastian [DIgSILENT GmbH, Gomaringen (Germany)
2003-11-01
The increasing amount of wind power generation in European power systems requires stability analysis considering interaction between wind-farms and transmission systems. Dynamics introduced by dispersed wind generators at the distribution level can usually be neglected. However, large on- and offshore wind farms have a considerable influence to power system dynamics and must definitely be considered for analyzing power system dynamics. Compared to conventional power stations, wind power plants consist of a large number of generators of small size. Therefore, representing every wind generator individually increases the calculation time of dynamic simulations considerably. Therefore, model aggregation techniques should be applied for reducing calculation times. This paper presents aggregated models for wind parks consisting of fixed or variable speed wind generators.
Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic
Wahyu Adi Tri Joko; Ayu Ratnawinanda Lila
2017-01-01
Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD). System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate...
Soil Models and Vehicle System Dynamics
2013-05-07
been further adapted to the Kayenta model [52]. The Sandia GeoModel has yet to be included in tire-terrain interaction studies. However, the...stiffness in one plane, and there is a transversely anisotropic version of the Kayenta model. Anisotropy may also be addressed using fabric tensors [53...71 [52] Brannon, R.M., Fossum, A.F., and Strack, O.E., 2009, “ KAYENTA : Theory and User’s Guide”, Sandia Report
Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems
In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio
2009-01-01
This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.
Integrated dynamic modeling and management system mission analysis
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, A.K.
1994-12-28
This document summarizes the mission analysis performed on the Integrated Dynamic Modeling and Management System (IDMMS). The IDMMS will be developed to provide the modeling and analysis capability required to understand the TWRS system behavior in terms of the identified TWRS performance measures. The IDMMS will be used to demonstrate in a verified and validated manner the satisfactory performance of the TWRS system configuration and assurance that the requirements have been satisfied.
Integrated dynamic modeling and management system mission analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, A.K.
1994-01-01
This document summarizes the mission analysis performed on the Integrated Dynamic Modeling and Management System (IDMMS). The IDMMS will be developed to provide the modeling and analysis capability required to understand the TWRS system behavior in terms of the identified TWRS performance measures. The IDMMS will be used to demonstrate in a verified and validated manner the satisfactory performance of the TWRS system configuration and assurance that the requirements have been satisfied
Development of a Stirling System Dynamic Model with Enhanced Thermodynamics
Regan, Timothy F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.
2005-02-01
The Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center is a software model developed from first principles that includes the mechanical and mounting dynamics, the thermodynamics, the linear alternator, and the controller of a free-piston Stirling power convertor, along with the end user load. As such it represents the first detailed modeling tool for fully integrated Stirling convertor-based power systems. The thermodynamics of the model were originally a form of the isothermal Stirling cycle. In some situations it may be desirable to improve the accuracy of the Stirling cycle portion of the model. An option under consideration is to enhance the SDM thermodynamics by coupling the model with Gedeon Associates' Sage simulation code. The result will be a model that gives a more accurate prediction of the performance and dynamics of the free-piston Stirling convertor. A method of integrating the Sage simulation code with the System Dynamic Model is described. Results of SDM and Sage simulation are compared to test data. Model parameter estimation and model validation are discussed.
The financial accounting model from a system dynamics' perspective
Melse, E.
2006-01-01
This paper explores the foundation of the financial accounting model. We examine the properties of the accounting equation as the principal algorithm for the design and the development of a System Dynamics model. Key to the perspective is the foundational requirement that resolves the temporal
System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience in Nuclear Power Plants
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Florah, Kamanj; Kim, Jonghyun
2013-01-01
This paper aims to model and evaluate emergency operation system (EOS) resilience using the System Dynamics. System Dynamics is the study of causal interactions between elements of a complex system. This paper identifies the EOS resilience attributes and their interactions by constructing a causal loop diagram. Then, the interactions are quantified based on literature review and simulated to analyze resilience dynamics. This paper describes the use of system dynamics to improve understanding of the resilience dynamics of complex systems such as emergency operation systems. This paper takes into account two aspects; the strength of resilience attributes interactions and the quantification of dynamic behaviour of resilience over time. This model can be applied to review NPP safety in terms of the resilience level and organization. Simulation results can give managers insights to support their decisions in safety management. A nuclear power plant (NPP) is classified as a safety critical organization whose safety objective is to control hazards that can cause significant harm to the environment, public, or personnel. There has been a significant improvement of safety designs as well as risk analysis tools and methods applied in nuclear power plants over the last decade. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations they primarily focus on technical dimension, the analysis are linear and sequential, they are dominated by static models, they do not take a systemic view into account, and they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. Hence new approaches to risk analysis for NPPs are needed to complement the conventional approaches. Resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. An EOS in a NPP refers to a system consisting of personnel
System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience in Nuclear Power Plants
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Florah, Kamanj; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)
2013-10-15
This paper aims to model and evaluate emergency operation system (EOS) resilience using the System Dynamics. System Dynamics is the study of causal interactions between elements of a complex system. This paper identifies the EOS resilience attributes and their interactions by constructing a causal loop diagram. Then, the interactions are quantified based on literature review and simulated to analyze resilience dynamics. This paper describes the use of system dynamics to improve understanding of the resilience dynamics of complex systems such as emergency operation systems. This paper takes into account two aspects; the strength of resilience attributes interactions and the quantification of dynamic behaviour of resilience over time. This model can be applied to review NPP safety in terms of the resilience level and organization. Simulation results can give managers insights to support their decisions in safety management. A nuclear power plant (NPP) is classified as a safety critical organization whose safety objective is to control hazards that can cause significant harm to the environment, public, or personnel. There has been a significant improvement of safety designs as well as risk analysis tools and methods applied in nuclear power plants over the last decade. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations they primarily focus on technical dimension, the analysis are linear and sequential, they are dominated by static models, they do not take a systemic view into account, and they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. Hence new approaches to risk analysis for NPPs are needed to complement the conventional approaches. Resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. An EOS in a NPP refers to a system consisting of personnel
Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation
2016-01-01
This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...
Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.
Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P
2015-03-01
System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.
van Geert, P
Dynamic systems theory conceives of development as a self-organizational process. Both complexity and order emerge as a product of elementary principles of interaction between components involved in the developmental process. This article presents a dynamic systems model based on a general dual
System Dynamics as Model-Based Theory Building
Schwaninger, Markus; Grösser, Stefan N.
2008-01-01
This paper introduces model-based theory building as a feature of system dynamics (SD) with large potential. It presents a systemic approach to actualizing that potential, thereby opening up a new perspective on theory building in the social sciences. The question addressed is if and how SD enables the construction of high-quality theories. This contribution is based on field experiment type projects which have been focused on model-based theory building, specifically the construction of a mi...
Model Transformers for Dynamical Systems of Dynamic Epistemic Logic
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Rendsvig, Rasmus Kræmmer
2015-01-01
I artiklen tages et dynamisk system-perspektiv på dynamisk epistemisk logik, og undersøger opdateringskraften af forskellige måder at definere evolutionsafbildninger på.......I artiklen tages et dynamisk system-perspektiv på dynamisk epistemisk logik, og undersøger opdateringskraften af forskellige måder at definere evolutionsafbildninger på....
A Dynamic Wind Generation Model for Power Systems Studies
Estanqueiro, Ana
2007-01-01
In this paper, a wind park dynamic model is presented together with a base methodology for its application to power system studies. This detailed wind generation model addresses the wind turbine components and phenomena more relevant to characterize the power quality of a grid connected wind park, as well as the wind park response to the grid fast perturbations, e.g., low voltage ride through fault. The developed model was applied to the operating conditions of the selected sets of wind turbi...
The System Dynamics Model for Development of Organic Agriculture
Rozman, Črtomir; Škraba, Andrej; Kljajić, Miroljub; Pažek, Karmen; Bavec, Martina; Bavec, Franci
2008-10-01
Organic agriculture is the highest environmentally valuable agricultural system, and has strategic importance at national level that goes beyond the interests of agricultural sector. In this paper we address development of organic farming simulation model based on a system dynamics methodology (SD). The system incorporates relevant variables, which affect the development of the organic farming. The group decision support system (GDSS) was used in order to identify most relevant variables for construction of causal loop diagram and further model development. The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the level of organically utilized area, levels of production and crop selection in a long term dynamic context and will be used for simulation of different policy scenarios for organic farming and their impact on economic and environmental parameters of organic production at an aggregate level.
Mathematical modeling of earth's dynamical systems a primer
Slingerland, Rudy
2011-01-01
Mathematical Modeling of Earth's Dynamical Systems gives earth scientists the essential skills for translating chemical and physical systems into mathematical and computational models that provide enhanced insight into Earth's processes. Using a step-by-step method, the book identifies the important geological variables of physical-chemical geoscience problems and describes the mechanisms that control these variables. This book is directed toward upper-level undergraduate students, graduate students, researchers, and professionals who want to learn how to abstract complex systems into sets of dynamic equations. It shows students how to recognize domains of interest and key factors, and how to explain assumptions in formal terms. The book reveals what data best tests ideas of how nature works, and cautions against inadequate transport laws, unconstrained coefficients, and unfalsifiable models. Various examples of processes and systems, and ample illustrations, are provided. Students using this text should be f...
UML Modeling for Dynamic Logistics System Based on DEVS
Zhang Zhiyong; Liu Jie; Zhang Xinhui
2013-01-01
DEVS is a hierarchical and modular system descriptive method. However, it cannot describe dynamic process and relationship of system members. This article has proposed a way to extend UML using stereotype, making it suitable for simulation modeling. To build a modeling tool, we defined atomic model class and coupled model class, both of which are in line with not only DEVS’s hierarchical and modular requirements but also UML’s object-oriented characteristics. At last, we use the tool to analy...
Nuclear Hybrid Energy System Modeling: RELAP5 Dynamic Coupling Capabilities
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Piyush Sabharwall; Nolan Anderson; Haihua Zhao; Shannon Bragg-Sitton; George Mesina
2012-09-01
The nuclear hybrid energy systems (NHES) research team is currently developing a dynamic simulation of an integrated hybrid energy system. A detailed simulation of proposed NHES architectures will allow initial computational demonstration of a tightly coupled NHES to identify key reactor subsystem requirements, identify candidate reactor technologies for a hybrid system, and identify key challenges to operation of the coupled system. This work will provide a baseline for later coupling of design-specific reactor models through industry collaboration. The modeling capability addressed in this report focuses on the reactor subsystem simulation.
Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.
2004-01-01
Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517
From dynamics to structure and function of model biomolecular systems
Fontaine-Vive-Curtaz, F.
2007-01-01
The purpose of this thesis was to extend recent works on structure and dynamics of hydrogen bonded crystals to model biomolecular systems and biological processes. The tools that we have used are neutron scattering (NS) and density functional theory (DFT) and force field (FF) based simulation
Dynamic model including piping acoustics of a centrifugal compression system
Helvoirt, van J.; Jager, de A.G.
2007-01-01
This paper deals with low frequency pulsation phenomena in full-scale centrifugal compression systems associated with compressor surge. The Greitzer lumped parameter model is applied to describe the dynamic behavior of an industrial compressor test rig and experimental evidence is provided for the
A Generalized Dynamic Model of Geared System: Establishment and Application
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hui Liu
2011-12-01
Full Text Available In order to make the dynamic characteristic simulation of the ordinary and planetary gears drive more accurate and more efficient , a generalized dynamic model of geared system is established including internal and external mesh gears in this paper. It is used to build a mathematical model, which achieves the auto judgment of the gear mesh state. We do not need to concern about active or passive gears any more, and the complicated power flow analysis can be avoided. With the numerical integration computation, the axis orbits diagram and dynamic gear mesh force characteristic are acquired and the results show that the dynamic response of translational displacement is greater when contacting line direction change is considered, and with the quickly change of direction of contacting line, the amplitude of mesh force would be increased, which easily causes the damage to the gear tooth. Moreover, compared with ordinary gear, dynamic responses of planetary gear would be affected greater by the gear backlash. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the generalized dynamic model and the mathematical model.
Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.
Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew
2015-07-09
The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to
A New Dynamic Model for Nuclear Fuel Cycle System Analysis
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Sungyeol; Ko, Won Il
2014-01-01
The evaluation of mass flow is a complex process where numerous parameters and their complex interaction are involved. Given that many nuclear power countries have light and heavy water reactors and associated fuel cycle technologies, the mass flow analysis has to consider a dynamic transition from the open fuel cycle to other cycles over decades or a century. Although an equilibrium analysis provides insight concerning the end-states of fuel cycle transitions, it cannot answer when we need specific management options, whether the current plan can deliver these options when needed, and how fast the equilibrium can be achieved. As a pilot application, the government brought several experts together to conduct preliminary evaluations for nuclear fuel cycle options in 2010. According to Table 1, they concluded that the closed nuclear fuel cycle has long-term advantages over the open fuel cycle. However, it is still necessary to assess these options in depth and to optimize transition paths of these long-term options with advanced dynamic fuel cycle models. A dynamic simulation model for nuclear fuel cycle systems was developed and its dynamic mass flow analysis capability was validated against the results of existing models. This model can reflects a complex combination of various fuel cycle processes and reactor types, from once-through to multiple recycling, within a single nuclear fuel cycle system. For the open fuel cycle, the results of the developed model are well matched with the results of other models
System dynamics models as decision-making tools in agritourism
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jere Jakulin Tadeja
2016-12-01
Full Text Available Agritourism as a type of niche tourism is a complex and softly defined phaenomenon. The demands for fast and integrated decision regarding agritourism and its interconnections with environment, economy (investments, traffic and social factors (tourists is urgent. Many different methodologies and methods master softly structured questions and dilemmas with global and local properties. Here we present methods of systems thinking and system dynamics, which were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. We develop system dynamics models in order to present accuracy of methodology. These models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. We will pay the attention to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model. This one is the basis of causal connections among model variables. At the end, we restore a connection between qualitative and quantitative models in frame of system dynamics.
System Dynamics Modeling of the Massachusetts SREC Market
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wilson Rickerson
2010-08-01
Full Text Available As states across the country struggle to increase local development of renewable energy, policymakers are turning to innovative program designs to meet their renewable electricity targets. Massachusetts recently adopted a unique, auction-based price support mechanism for the solar portion of its renewable portfolio standard. During the program development process, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER used system dynamics to simulate potential solar renewable energy certificate market conditions under the proposed regulations. The modeling exercise resulted in several program design changes that will lead to a more stable certificate market. System dynamics can be a useful tool for developing and improving sustainability programs.
Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wahyu Adi Tri Joko
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD. System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate the model, 93 construction workers whom worked in a high rise building construction projects, were used as case study. The result shows that excessive workload, working elevation and age, are the main factors lead to construction worker fatigue. Simulation result also shows that these factors can increase worker fatigue level to 21.2% times compared to normal condition. Beside predicting worker fatigue level this model can also be used as early warning system to prevent construction worker accident
Dynamics Analysis for Hydroturbine Regulating System Based on Matrix Model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jiafu Wei
2017-01-01
Full Text Available The hydraulic turbine model is the key factor which affects the analysis precision of the hydraulic turbine governing system. This paper discusses the basic principle of the hydraulic turbine matrix model and gives two methods to realize. Using the characteristic matrix to describe unit flow and torque and their relationship with the opening and unit speed, it can accurately represent the nonlinear characteristics of the turbine, effectively improve the convergence of simulation process, and meet the needs of high precision real-time simulation of power system. Through the simulation of a number of power stations, it indicates that, by analyzing the dynamic process of the hydraulic turbine regulating with 5-order matrix model, the calculation results and field test data will have good consistency, and it can better meet the needs of power system dynamic simulation.
Tinamit: Making coupled system dynamics models accessible to stakeholders
Malard, Julien; Inam Baig, Azhar; Rojas Díaz, Marcela; Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Adamowski, Jan; Tuy, Héctor; Melgar-Quiñonez, Hugo
2017-04-01
Model coupling is increasingly used as a method of combining the best of two models when representing socio-environmental systems, though barriers to successful model adoption by stakeholders are particularly present with the use of coupled models, due to their high complexity and typically low implementation flexibility. Coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling is a promising method to improve stakeholder participation in environmental modelling while retaining a high level of complexity for physical process representation, as the system dynamics components are readily understandable and can be built by stakeholders themselves. However, this method is not without limitations in practice, including 1) inflexible and complicated coupling methods, 2) difficult model maintenance after the end of the project, and 3) a wide variety of end-user cultures and languages. We have developed the open-source Python-language software tool Tinamit to overcome some of these limitations to the adoption of stakeholder-based coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling. The software is unique in 1) its inclusion of both a graphical user interface (GUI) and a library of available commands (API) that allow users with little or no coding abilities to rapidly, effectively, and flexibly couple models, 2) its multilingual support for the GUI, allowing users to couple models in their preferred language (and to add new languages as necessary for their community work), and 3) its modular structure allowing for very easy model coupling and modification without the direct use of code, and to which programming-savvy users can easily add support for new types of physically-based models. We discuss how the use of Tinamit for model coupling can greatly increase the accessibility of coupled models to stakeholders, using an example of a stakeholder-built system dynamics model of soil salinity issues in Pakistan coupled with the physically-based soil salinity and water flow model
Object Oriented Toolbox for Modelling and Simulation of Dynamical Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin; Wagner, Falko Jens; Thomsen, Per Grove
1998-01-01
This paper presents the results of an ongoing project, dealing with design and implementation of a simulation toolbox based on object oriented modelling techniques. The paper describes an experimental implementation of parts of such a toolbox in C++, and discusses the experiences drawn from that ...... that process. Essential to the work is the focus on simulation of complex dynamical systems, from modelling the single components/subsystems to building complete systemssuch a toolbox in C++, and discusses the experiences drawn from that process....
Modeling the Afferent Dynamics of the Baroreflex Control System
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ottesen, Johnny T.; Mahdi, Adam; Sturdy, Jacob
2013-01-01
of mechanoreceptors located in the BR nerve-endings, and modulation of the action potential frequency. The three sub-systems are modeled individually following well-established biological principles. The first submodel, predicting arterial wall deformation, uses blood pressure as an input and outputs circumferential...... demonstrate that our preferred model can exhibit all known dynamics and that it is advantageous to combine qualitative and quantitative analysis methods....
Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of an Underactuated System
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Duarte Madrid, Juan Libardo; Querubín, E González; Henao, P A Ospina
2017-01-01
In this paper, is used the Lagrangian classical mechanics for modeling the dynamics of an underactuated system, specifically a rotary inverted pendulum that will have two equations of motion. A basic design of the system is proposed in SOLIDWORKS 3D CAD software, which based on the material and dimensions of the model provides some physical variables necessary for modeling. In order to verify the results obtained, a comparison the CAD model simulated in the environment SimMechanics of MATLAB software with the mathematical model who was consisting of Euler-Lagrange’s equations implemented in Simulink MATLAB, solved with the ODE23tb method, included in the MATLAB libraries for the solution of systems of equations of the type and order obtained. This article also has a topological analysis of pendulum trajectories through a phase space diagram, which allows the identification of stable and unstable regions of the system. (paper)
MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF MECHANICAL SYSTEM CONDITION IN DYNAMICS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
D. N. Mironov
2011-01-01
Full Text Available The paper considers an estimation of a complicated mechanical system condition in dynamics with due account of material degradation and accumulation of micro-damages. An element of continuous medium has been simulated and described with the help of a discrete element. The paper contains description of a model for determination of mechanical system longevity in accordance with number of cycles and operational period.
Modelling and control of dynamic systems using gaussian process models
Kocijan, Juš
2016-01-01
This monograph opens up new horizons for engineers and researchers in academia and in industry dealing with or interested in new developments in the field of system identification and control. It emphasizes guidelines for working solutions and practical advice for their implementation rather than the theoretical background of Gaussian process (GP) models. The book demonstrates the potential of this recent development in probabilistic machine-learning methods and gives the reader an intuitive understanding of the topic. The current state of the art is treated along with possible future directions for research. Systems control design relies on mathematical models and these may be developed from measurement data. This process of system identification, when based on GP models, can play an integral part of control design in data-based control and its description as such is an essential aspect of the text. The background of GP regression is introduced first with system identification and incorporation of prior know...
Using Difference Equation to Model Discrete-time Behavior in System Dynamics Modeling
Hesan, R.; Ghorbani, A.; Dignum, M.V.
2014-01-01
In system dynamics modeling, differential equations have been used as the basic mathematical operator. Using difference equation to build system dynamics models instead of differential equation, can be insightful for studying small organizations or systems with micro behavior. In this paper we
Parameter Estimation for Dynamic Model of the Financial System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Veronika Novotná
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Economy can be considered a large, open system which is influenced by fluctuations, both internal and external. Based on non-linear dynamics theory, the dynamic models of a financial system try to provide a new perspective by explaining the complicated behaviour of the system not as a result of external influences or random behaviour, but as a result of the behaviour and trends of the system’s internal structures. The present article analyses a chaotic financial system from the point of view of determining the time delay of the model variables – the interest rate, investment demand, and price index. The theory is briefly explained in the first chapters of the paper and serves as a basis for formulating the relations. This article aims to determine the appropriate length of time delay variables in a dynamic model of the financial system in order to express the real economic situation and respect the effect of the history of factors under consideration. The determination of the delay length is carried out for the time series representing Euro area. The methodology for the determination of the time delay is illustrated by a concrete example.
Dynamical system approach to running Λ cosmological models
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Stachowski, Aleksander; Szydlowski, Marek
2016-01-01
We study the dynamics of cosmological models with a time dependent cosmological term. We consider five classes of models; two with the non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term Λ: Λ(H)CDM cosmologies, Λ(a)CDM cosmologies, and three with the covariant parametrization of Λ: Λ(R)CDM cosmologies, where R(t) is the Ricci scalar, Λ(φ)-cosmologies with diffusion, Λ(X)-cosmologies, where X = (1)/(2)g"α"β∇_α∇_βφ is a kinetic part of the density of the scalar field. We also consider the case of an emergent Λ(a) relation obtained from the behaviour of trajectories in a neighbourhood of an invariant submanifold. In the study of the dynamics we used dynamical system methods for investigating how an evolutionary scenario can depend on the choice of special initial conditions. We show that the methods of dynamical systems allow one to investigate all admissible solutions of a running Λ cosmology for all initial conditions. We interpret Alcaniz and Lima's approach as a scaling cosmology. We formulate the idea of an emergent cosmological term derived directly from an approximation of the exact dynamics. We show that some non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term like Λ(a), Λ(H) gives rise to the non-physical behaviour of trajectories in the phase space. This behaviour disappears if the term Λ(a) is emergent from the covariant parametrization. (orig.)
Mathematical Modeling and Dimension Reduction in Dynamical Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Elmegård, Michael
. These systems are generically nonlinear and the studies of them often become enormously complex. The framework in which such systems are best understood is via the theory of dynamical systems, where the critical behavior is systematically analyzed by performing bifurcation theory. In that context the current...... thesis is attacking two problems. The first is concerned with the mathematical modelling and analysis of an experiment of a vibro-impacting beam. This type of dynamical system has received much attention in the recent years and they occur frequently in mechanical applications, where they induce noise...... the existence of isolas of subharmonic orbits. These were then verified in the practical experiment in the lab. The second problem that is addressed in the current thesis is a problem that has developed as a consequence of the increasing power of computers which has created the demand for analysis of ever more...
Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory
Hunter, Dan
1990-01-01
Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).
A dynamic model of a photovoltaic vapour compression system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Renno, C.
2009-01-01
A dynamic simulation of a photovoltaic vapour compression system is presented in this paper. In particular, there are several options to convert solar energy into refrigeration effect such as the absorption cycle, the thermo-mechanical refrigeration systems, the regenerative desiccant process or the steam jet system. This effect can also be produced by a conventional vapor compression cycle in which the compressor is driven by an electric motor supplied by means of photovoltaic cells. It is also possible to produce the cooling effect adopting the thermoelectric refrigeration, with electricity supplied by means of photovoltaic cells. Absorption and solar mechanical systems are necessarily larger and require extensive plumbing and electrical connections. The dynamic model allows to obtain some characteristic temperatures of the photovoltaic system and the energy consumptions with and without load perturbations. This model results a useful tool to study the dynamic working, for example, of photovoltaic refrigerators used in rural areas and remote islands, for their simple structure and low costs, to preserve foodstuffs, vaccines and other life saving medicines. (author)
A system dynamics model to determine products mix
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mahtab Hajghasem
2014-02-01
Full Text Available This paper presents an implementation of system dynamics model to determine appropriate product mix by considering various factors such as labor, materials, overhead, etc. for an Iranian producer of cosmetic and sanitary products. The proposed model of this paper considers three hypotheses including the relationship between product mix and profitability, optimum production capacity and having minimum amount of storage to take advantage of low cost production. The implementation of system dynamics on VENSIM software package has confirmed all three hypotheses of the survey and suggested that in order to reach better mix product, it is necessary to reach optimum production planning, take advantage of all available production capacities and use inventory management techniques.
Equation-free model reduction for complex dynamical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Le Maitre, O. P.; Mathelin, L.; Le Maitre, O. P.
2010-01-01
This paper presents a reduced model strategy for simulation of complex physical systems. A classical reduced basis is first constructed relying on proper orthogonal decomposition of the system. Then, unlike the alternative approaches, such as Galerkin projection schemes for instance, an equation-free reduced model is constructed. It consists in the determination of an explicit transformation, or mapping, for the evolution over a coarse time-step of the projection coefficients of the system state on the reduced basis. The mapping is expressed as an explicit polynomial transformation of the projection coefficients and is computed once and for all in a pre-processing stage using the detailed model equation of the system. The reduced system can then be advanced in time by successive applications of the mapping. The CPU cost of the method lies essentially in the mapping approximation which is performed offline, in a parallel fashion, and only once. Subsequent application of the mapping to perform a time-integration is carried out at a low cost thanks to its explicit character. Application of the method is considered for the 2-D flow around a circular cylinder. We investigate the effectiveness of the reduced model in rendering the dynamics for both asymptotic state and transient stages. It is shown that the method leads to a stable and accurate time-integration for only a fraction of the cost of a detailed simulation, provided that the mapping is properly approximated and the reduced basis remains relevant for the dynamics investigated. (authors)
A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...
EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta
System dynamic modeling on construction waste management in Shenzhen, China.
Tam, Vivian W Y; Li, Jingru; Cai, Hong
2014-05-01
This article examines the complexity of construction waste management in Shenzhen, Mainland China. In-depth analysis of waste generation, transportation, recycling, landfill and illegal dumping of various inherent management phases is explored. A system dynamics modeling using Stella model is developed. Effects of landfill charges and also penalties from illegal dumping are also simulated. The results show that the implementation of comprehensive policy on both landfill charges and illegal dumping can effectively control the illegal dumping behavior, and achieve comprehensive construction waste minimization. This article provides important recommendations for effective policy implementation and explores new perspectives for Shenzhen policy makers.
Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics
Huang, Yongxi
Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the
Study on system dynamics of evolutionary mix-game models
Gou, Chengling; Guo, Xiaoqian; Chen, Fang
2008-11-01
Mix-game model is ameliorated from an agent-based MG model, which is used to simulate the real financial market. Different from MG, there are two groups of agents in Mix-game: Group 1 plays a majority game and Group 2 plays a minority game. These two groups of agents have different bounded abilities to deal with historical information and to count their own performance. In this paper, we modify Mix-game model by assigning the evolution abilities to agents: if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will copy the best strategies the other agent has; and agents will repeat such evolution at certain time intervals. Through simulations this paper finds: (1) the average winning rates of agents in Group 1 and the mean volatilities increase with the increases of the thresholds of Group 1; (2) the average winning rates of both groups decrease but the mean volatilities of system increase with the increase of the thresholds of Group 2; (3) the thresholds of Group 2 have greater impact on system dynamics than the thresholds of Group 1; (4) the characteristics of system dynamics under different time intervals of strategy change are similar to each other qualitatively, but they are different quantitatively; (5) As the time interval of strategy change increases from 1 to 20, the system behaves more and more stable and the performances of agents in both groups become better also.
Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis
Feng, Huirong; Lim, C. W.; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi
2014-01-01
The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony. PMID:25254225
Sustainable deforestation evaluation model and system dynamics analysis.
Feng, Huirong; Lim, C W; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi
2014-01-01
The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.
Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Huirong Feng
2014-01-01
Full Text Available The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.
Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling.
Macmillan, Alexandra; Woodcock, James
2017-12-01
Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a "cycling trajectory" and drew out policy insights. The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and "market saturation" were important in the Netherlands. A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low
System Dynamics Modelling of the Power Sector in Mauritius
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Deenapanray Prakash N. K.
2015-12-01
Full Text Available A system dynamics model has been developed for the power sector of Mauritius, which captures a range of complex interactions between the economic, social and environmental aspects of the national economy, with deeper emphasis on the role of energy in these interactions. The model has been validated by replicating the historical trends of key development indicators, and its results were compared to the projections of the national utility company. The validation process shows that the model provides a faithful representation of the actual electricity sector of Mauritius, and can be easily adapted to the use of different assumptions. This paper describes the main characteristics of the model and its results as compared to electricity demand projections carried out by the Central Electricity Board to 2022. The results suggest that further analysis could be done to test alternative low carbon investment scenarios.
Error modeling for surrogates of dynamical systems using machine learning
Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.
2017-12-01
A machine-learning-based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (e.g., random forests, LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed `error indicators' (i.e., features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering), and subsequently constructs a `local' regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider two uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance, and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (e.g., time-integrated errors). We apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil--water subsurface flow simulations. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization with proper orthogonal decomposition. When the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well-averaged errors.
Discrete event dynamic system (DES)-based modeling for dynamic material flow in the pyroprocess
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Hyo Jik; Kim, Kiho; Kim, Ho Dong; Lee, Han Soo
2011-01-01
A modeling and simulation methodology was proposed in order to implement the dynamic material flow of the pyroprocess. Since the static mass balance provides the limited information on the material flow, it is hard to predict dynamic behavior according to event. Therefore, a discrete event system (DES)-based model named, PyroFlow, was developed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). PyroFlow is able to calculate dynamic mass balance and also show various dynamic operational results in real time. By using PyroFlow, it is easy to rapidly predict unforeseeable results, such as throughput in unit process, accumulated product in buffer and operation status. As preliminary simulations, bottleneck analyses in the pyroprocess were carried out and consequently it was presented that operation strategy had influence on the productivity of the pyroprocess.
System Dynamics Modelling in CRM: Window Fashions Gallery
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F.T. Yuen
2010-09-01
Full Text Available The core research issue on which this study focuses is customer relationship management (CRM in a designated window fashions firm. A system dynamics-based CRM model is developed to help evaluate the effectiveness of CRM in the firm and examine factors affecting customer satisfaction. Different relationships and linkages between the firm, its employees, and its customers are identified to establish feedback loops that analyze the system over time. The analysis of the CRM model shows that employee satisfaction is the key leverage point affecting customer satisfaction, number of customers, and sales volume of the firm. Product attractiveness and service quality also play an important role in influencing the level of customer satisfaction. On the other hand, advertising and employee training have only minor effects on customer satisfaction.
Multiscale Molecular Dynamics Model for Heterogeneous Charged Systems
Stanton, L. G.; Glosli, J. N.; Murillo, M. S.
2018-04-01
Modeling matter across large length scales and timescales using molecular dynamics simulations poses significant challenges. These challenges are typically addressed through the use of precomputed pair potentials that depend on thermodynamic properties like temperature and density; however, many scenarios of interest involve spatiotemporal variations in these properties, and such variations can violate assumptions made in constructing these potentials, thus precluding their use. In particular, when a system is strongly heterogeneous, most of the usual simplifying assumptions (e.g., spherical potentials) do not apply. Here, we present a multiscale approach to orbital-free density functional theory molecular dynamics (OFDFT-MD) simulations that bridges atomic, interionic, and continuum length scales to allow for variations in hydrodynamic quantities in a consistent way. Our multiscale approach enables simulations on the order of micron length scales and 10's of picosecond timescales, which exceeds current OFDFT-MD simulations by many orders of magnitude. This new capability is then used to study the heterogeneous, nonequilibrium dynamics of a heated interface characteristic of an inertial-confinement-fusion capsule containing a plastic ablator near a fuel layer composed of deuterium-tritium ice. At these scales, fundamental assumptions of continuum models are explored; features such as the separation of the momentum fields among the species and strong hydrogen jetting from the plastic into the fuel region are observed, which had previously not been seen in hydrodynamic simulations.
SELECT NUMERICAL METHODS FOR MODELING THE DYNAMICS SYSTEMS
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Tetiana D. Panchenko
2016-07-01
Full Text Available The article deals with the creation of methodical support for mathematical modeling of dynamic processes in elements of the systems and complexes. As mathematical models ordinary differential equations have been used. The coefficients of the equations of the models can be nonlinear functions of the process. The projection-grid method is used as the main tool. It has been described iterative method algorithms taking into account the approximate solution prior to the first iteration and proposed adaptive control computing process. The original method of estimation error in the calculation solutions as well as for a given level of error of the technique solutions purpose adaptive method for solving configuration parameters is offered. A method for setting an adaptive method for solving the settings for a given level of error is given. The proposed method can be used for distributed computing.
Measurement Model Nonlinearity in Estimation of Dynamical Systems
Majji, Manoranjan; Junkins, J. L.; Turner, J. D.
2012-06-01
The role of nonlinearity of the measurement model and its interactions with the uncertainty of measurements and geometry of the problem is studied in this paper. An examination of the transformations of the probability density function in various coordinate systems is presented for several astrodynamics applications. Smooth and analytic nonlinear functions are considered for the studies on the exact transformation of uncertainty. Special emphasis is given to understanding the role of change of variables in the calculus of random variables. The transformation of probability density functions through mappings is shown to provide insight in to understanding the evolution of uncertainty in nonlinear systems. Examples are presented to highlight salient aspects of the discussion. A sequential orbit determination problem is analyzed, where the transformation formula provides useful insights for making the choice of coordinates for estimation of dynamic systems.
Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.
2002-01-01
Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers can schedule other events; create or remove Entities from the
Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.
2002-05-13
Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers
Best practices for system dynamics model design and construction with powersim studio.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Malczynski, Leonard A.
2011-06-01
This guide addresses software quality in the construction of Powersim{reg_sign} Studio 8 system dynamics simulation models. It is the result of almost ten years of experience with the Powersim suite of system dynamics modeling tools (Constructor and earlier Studio versions). It is a guide that proposes a common look and feel for the construction of Powersim Studio system dynamics models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Helene Lie
2016-08-01
Full Text Available In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders.
Modeling a nucleon system: static and dynamical properties - density fluctuations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Idier, D.
1997-01-01
This thesis sets forth a quasi-particle model for the static and dynamical properties of nuclear matter. This model is based on a scale ratio of quasi-particle to nucleons and the projection of the semi-classical distribution on a coherent Gaussian state basis. The first chapter is dealing with the transport equations, particularly with the Vlasov equation for Wigner distribution function. The second one is devoted to the statics of nuclear matter. Here, the sampling effect upon the nuclear density is treated and the state equation of the Gaussian fluid is compared with that given by Hartree-Fock approximation. We define state equation as the relationship between the nucleon binding energy and density, for a given temperature. The curvature around the state equation minimum of the quasi-particle system is shown to be related to the speed of propagation of density perturbation. The volume energy and the surface properties of a (semi-)infinite nucleon system are derived. For the resultant saturated auto-coherent semi-infinite system of quasi-particles the surface coefficient appearing in the mass formula is extracted as well as the system density profile. The third chapter treats the dynamics of the two-particle residual interactions. The effect of different parameters on relaxation of a nucleon system without a mean field is studied by means of a Eulerian and Lagrangian modeling. The fourth chapter treats the volume instabilities (spinodal decomposition) in nuclear matter. The quasi-particle systems, initially prepared in the spinodal region of the utilized interaction, are set to evolve. It is shown then that the scale ratio acts upon the amount of fluctuations injected in the system. The inhomogeneity degree and a proper time are defined and the role of collisions in the spinodal decomposition as well as that of the initial temperature and density, are investigated. Assuming different effective macroscopic interactions, the influence of quantities as
Positive dynamical systems in discrete time theory, models, and applications
Krause, Ulrich
2015-01-01
This book provides a systematic, rigorous and self-contained treatment of positive dynamical systems. A dynamical system is positive when all relevant variables of a systemare nonnegative in a natural way. This is in biology, demography or economics, where the levels of populations or prices of goods are positive. The principle also finds application in electrical engineering, physics and computer sciences.
A DYNAMICAL SYSTEM APPROACH IN MODELING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hennie Husniah
2016-05-01
Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a mathematical model of two parties technology transfer from a leader to a follower. The model is reconstructed via dynamical system approach from a known standard Raz and Assa model and we found some important conclusion which have not been discussed in the original model. The model assumes that in the absence of technology transfer from a leader to a follower, both the leader and the follower have a capability to grow independently with a known upper limit of the development. We obtain a rich mathematical structure of the steady state solution of the model. We discuss a special situation in which the upper limit of the technological development of the follower is higher than that of the leader, but the leader has started earlier than the follower in implementing the technology. In this case we show a paradox stating that the follower is unable to reach its original upper limit of the technological development could appear whenever the transfer rate is sufficiently high. We propose a new model to increase realism so that any technological transfer rate could only has a positive effect in accelerating the rate of growth of the follower in reaching its original upper limit of the development.
Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.
2009-01-01
This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)
Setting development goals using stochastic dynamical system models.
Ranganathan, Shyam; Nicolis, Stamatios C; Bali Swain, Ranjula; Sumpter, David J T
2017-01-01
The Millennium Development Goals (MDG) programme was an ambitious attempt to encourage a globalised solution to important but often-overlooked development problems. The programme led to wide-ranging development but it has also been criticised for unrealistic and arbitrary targets. In this paper, we show how country-specific development targets can be set using stochastic, dynamical system models built from historical data. In particular, we show that the MDG target of two-thirds reduction of child mortality from 1990 levels was infeasible for most countries, especially in sub-Saharan Africa. At the same time, the MDG targets were not ambitious enough for fast-developing countries such as Brazil and China. We suggest that model-based setting of country-specific targets is essential for the success of global development programmes such as the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). This approach should provide clear, quantifiable targets for policymakers.
Semi-empirical neural network models of controlled dynamical systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mihail V. Egorchev
2017-12-01
Full Text Available A simulation approach is discussed for maneuverable aircraft motion as nonlinear controlled dynamical system under multiple and diverse uncertainties including knowledge imperfection concerning simulated plant and its environment exposure. The suggested approach is based on a merging of theoretical knowledge for the plant with training tools of artificial neural network field. The efficiency of this approach is demonstrated using the example of motion modeling and the identification of the aerodynamic characteristics of a maneuverable aircraft. A semi-empirical recurrent neural network based model learning algorithm is proposed for multi-step ahead prediction problem. This algorithm sequentially states and solves numerical optimization subproblems of increasing complexity, using each solution as initial guess for subsequent subproblem. We also consider a procedure for representative training set acquisition that utilizes multisine control signals.
A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions
Homer, Jack; Evans, Elizabeth; Zielinski, Ann
2010-01-01
Planning programs for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a challenge to every community that wants to make the best use of its limited resources. Selecting programs that provide the greatest impact is difficult because of the complex set of causal pathways and delays that link risk factors to CVD. We describe a system dynamics simulation model developed for a county health department that incorporates and tracks the effects of those risk factors over time on both first-time and recurrent events. We also describe how the model was used to evaluate the potential impacts of various intervention strategies for reducing the county's CVD burden and present the results of those policy tests. PMID:20167899
Modeling Physical Systems Using Vensim PLE Systems Dynamics Software
Widmark, Stephen
2012-01-01
Many physical systems are described by time-dependent differential equations or systems of such equations. This makes it difficult for students in an introductory physics class to solve many real-world problems since these students typically have little or no experience with this kind of mathematics. In my high school physics classes, I address…
Pruyt, E.
2010-01-01
The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of inter/national safety and security.
Dynamic modeling and response of soil-wall systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Veletsos, A.S.; Younan, A.H.
1993-10-01
The study reported herein is the third in a series of investigations motivated by need to gain improved understanding of the responses to earthquakes of deeply embedded and underground tanks storing radioactive wastes, and to develop rational but simple methods of analysis and design for such systems. Following a brief review of the errors that may result from the use of a popular model for evaluating the dynamic soil forces induced in a base-excited rigid wall retaining an elastic stratum, the sources of the errors are identified and a modification is proposed which defines correctly the action of the system. In the proposed modification, the stratum is modeled by a series of elastically supported, semi-infinite horizontal bars with distributed mass instead of massless springs. The concepts involved are introduced by reference to a system composed of a fixed-based wall and a homogeneous elastic stratum, and are then applied to the analysis of more complex soil-wall systems. Both harmonic and transient excitations are considered, and comprehensive numerical solutions are presented which elucidate the actions involved and the effects and relative importance of the relevant parameters
Cyber Physical System Modelling of Distribution Power Systems for Dynamic Demand Response
Chu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Rongxiang; Tang, Maosen; Huang, Haoyi; Zhang, Lei
2018-01-01
Dynamic demand response (DDR) is a package of control methods to enhance power system security. A CPS modelling and simulation platform for DDR in distribution power systems is presented in this paper. CPS modelling requirements of distribution power systems are analyzed. A coupled CPS modelling platform is built for assessing DDR in the distribution power system, which combines seamlessly modelling tools of physical power networks and cyber communication networks. Simulations results of IEEE 13-node test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the modelling and simulation platform.
Modeling dynamic behavior of superconducting maglev systems under external disturbances
Huang, Chen-Guang; Xue, Cun; Yong, Hua-Dong; Zhou, You-He
2017-08-01
For a maglev system, vertical and lateral displacements of the levitation body may simultaneously occur under external disturbances, which often results in changes in the levitation and guidance forces and even causes some serious malfunctions. To fully understand the effect of external disturbances on the levitation performance, in this work, we build a two-dimensional numerical model on the basis of Newton's second law of motion and a mathematical formulation derived from magnetoquasistatic Maxwell's equations together with a nonlinear constitutive relation between the electric field and the current density. By using this model, we present an analysis of dynamic behavior for two typical maglev systems consisting of an infinitely long superconductor and a guideway of different arrangements of infinitely long parallel permanent magnets. The results show that during the vertical movement, the levitation force is closely associated with the flux motion and the moving velocity of the superconductor. After being disturbed at the working position, the superconductor has a disturbance-induced initial velocity and then starts to periodically vibrate in both lateral and vertical directions. Meanwhile, the lateral and vertical vibration centers gradually drift along their vibration directions. The larger the initial velocity, the faster their vibration centers drift. However, the vertical drift of the vertical vibration center seems to be independent of the direction of the initial velocity. In addition, due to the lateral and vertical drifts, the equilibrium position of the superconductor in the maglev systems is not a space point but a continuous range.
The mathematical model of dynamic stabilization system for autonomous car
Saikin, A. M.; Buznikov, S. E.; Shabanov, N. S.; Elkin, D. S.
2018-02-01
Leading foreign companies and domestic enterprises carry out extensive researches and developments in the field of control systems for autonomous cars and in the field of improving driver assistance systems. The search for technical solutions, as a rule, is based on heuristic methods and does not always lead to satisfactory results. The purpose of this research is to formalize the road safety problem in the terms of modern control theory, to construct the adequate mathematical model for solving it, including the choice of software and hardware environment. For automatic control of the object, it is necessary to solve the problem of dynamic stabilization in the most complete formulation. The solution quality of the problem on a finite time interval is estimated by the value of the quadratic functional. Car speed, turn angle and additional yaw rate (during car drift or skidding) measurements are performed programmatically by the original virtual sensors. The limit speeds at which drift, skidding or rollover begins are calculated programmatically taking into account the friction coefficient identified in motion. The analysis of the results confirms both the adequacy of the mathematical models and the algorithms and the possibility of implementing the system in the minimal technical configuration.
Investigating immune system aging: system dynamics and agent-based modeling
Figueredo, Grazziela; Aickelin, Uwe
2010-01-01
System dynamics and agent based simulation models can\\ud both be used to model and understand interactions of entities within a population. Our modeling work presented here is concerned with understanding the suitability of the different types of simulation for the immune system aging problems and comparing their results. We are trying to answer questions such as: How fit is the immune system given a certain age? Would an immune boost be of therapeutic value, e.g. to improve the effectiveness...
Pasqualini, D.; Witkowski, M.
2005-12-01
The Critical Infrastructure Protection / Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) project, supported by the Science and Technology Office, has been developing a risk-informed Decision Support System that provides insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions. The system considers seventeen different Department of Homeland Security defined Critical Infrastructures (potable water system, telecommunications, public health, economics, etc.) and their primary interdependencies. These infrastructures have been modeling in one model called CIP/DSS Metropolitan Model. The modeling approach used is a system dynamics modeling approach. System dynamics modeling combines control theory and the nonlinear dynamics theory, which is defined by a set of coupled differential equations, which seeks to explain how the structure of a given system determines its behavior. In this poster we present a system dynamics model for one of the seventeen critical infrastructures, a generic metropolitan potable water system (MPWS). Three are the goals: 1) to gain a better understanding of the MPWS infrastructure; 2) to identify improvements that would help protect MPWS; and 3) to understand the consequences, interdependencies, and impacts, when perturbations occur to the system. The model represents raw water sources, the metropolitan water treatment process, storage of treated water, damage and repair to the MPWS, distribution of water, and end user demand, but does not explicitly represent the detailed network topology of an actual MPWS. The MPWS model is dependent upon inputs from the metropolitan population, energy, telecommunication, public health, and transportation models as well as the national water and transportation models. We present modeling results and sensitivity analysis indicating critical choke points, negative and positive feedback loops in the system. A general scenario is also analyzed where the potable water system responds to a generic disruption.
System Dynamic Modelling for a Balanced Scorecard: A Case Study
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn
Purpose - The purpose of this research is to make an analytical model of the BSC foundation by using a dynamic simulation approach for a 'hypothetical case' model, based on only part of an actual case study of BSC. Design/methodology/approach - The model includes five perspectives and a number...
Multiscale modeling of the dynamics of multicellular systems
Kosztin, Ioan
2011-03-01
Describing the biomechanical properties of cellular systems, regarded as complex highly viscoelastic materials, is a difficult problem of great conceptual and practical value. Here we present a novel approach, referred to as the Cellular Particle Dynamics (CPD) method, for: (i) quantitatively relating biomechanical properties at the cell level to those at the multicellular and tissue level, and (ii) describing and predicting the time evolution of multicellular systems that undergo biomechanical relaxations. In CPD cells are modeled as an ensemble of cellular particles (CPs) that interact via short range contact interactions, characterized by an attractive (adhesive interaction) and a repulsive (excluded volume interaction) component. The time evolution of the spatial conformation of the multicellular system is determined by following the trajectories of all CPs through integration of their equations of motion. Cell and multicellular level biomechanical properties (e.g., viscosity, surface tension and shear modulus) are determined through the combined use of experiments and theory of continuum viscoelastic media. The same biomechanical properties are also ``measured'' computationally by employing the CPD method, the results being expressed in terms of CPD parameters. Once these parameters have been calibrated experimentally, the formalism provides a systematic framework to predict the time evolution of complex multicellular systems during shape-changing biomechanical transformations. By design, the CPD method is rather flexible and most suitable for multiscale modeling of multicellular system. The spatial level of detail of the system can be easily tuned by changing the number of CPs in a cell. Thus, CPD can be used equally well to describe both cell level processes (e.g., the adhesion of two cells) and tissue level processes (e.g., the formation of 3D constructs of millions of cells through bioprinting). Work supported by NSF [FIBR-0526854 and PHY-0957914
Description of waste pretreatment and interfacing systems dynamic simulation model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Garbrick, D.J.; Zimmerman, B.D.
1995-05-01
The Waste Pretreatment and Interfacing Systems Dynamic Simulation Model was created to investigate the required pretreatment facility processing rates for both high level and low level waste so that the vitrification of tank waste can be completed according to the milestones defined in the Tri-Party Agreement (TPA). In order to achieve this objective, the processes upstream and downstream of the pretreatment facilities must also be included. The simulation model starts with retrieval of tank waste and ends with vitrification for both low level and high level wastes. This report describes the results of three simulation cases: one based on suggested average facility processing rates, one with facility rates determined so that approximately 6 new DSTs are required, and one with facility rates determined so that approximately no new DSTs are required. It appears, based on the simulation results, that reasonable facility processing rates can be selected so that no new DSTs are required by the TWRS program. However, this conclusion must be viewed with respect to the modeling assumptions, described in detail in the report. Also included in the report, in an appendix, are results of two sensitivity cases: one with glass plant water recycle steams recycled versus not recycled, and one employing the TPA SST retrieval schedule versus a more uniform SST retrieval schedule. Both recycling and retrieval schedule appear to have a significant impact on overall tank usage
Real time modeling, simulation and control of dynamical systems
Mughal, Asif Mahmood
2016-01-01
This book introduces modeling and simulation of linear time invariant systems and demonstrates how these translate to systems engineering, mechatronics engineering, and biomedical engineering. It is organized into nine chapters that follow the lectures used for a one-semester course on this topic, making it appropriate for students as well as researchers. The author discusses state space modeling derived from two modeling techniques and the analysis of the system and usage of modeling in control systems design. It also contains a unique chapter on multidisciplinary energy systems with a special focus on bioengineering systems and expands upon how the bond graph augments research in biomedical and bio-mechatronics systems.
Application of system dynamics on nuclear policy model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
An, N. S.; Kim, J. C.; Kim, D. W.; Kang, S. C.
2000-01-01
A system dynamics model for a nuclear energy policy in Korea (SIMNEP) was developed to analyze the Korea nuclear system and to predict the influence of the nuclear energy policy in the future. Two cases were analyzed using SIMNEP. The first case is to see the effect of the occurrence of severe nuclear accident in foreign country on the Korean government support. In the beginning, the Korean government support drops but jump up to the higher value than normal support due to the intelligentsia support influenced by the delay time of perception. Then, the national government support converges to the normal support. This turns out that the intelligentsia support plays a major role in increasing the government support. The second case is to see the effect of prior efforts on the foreign factors and/or on domestic factors on the U.S. government support. In the short term, effort on the U.S. government is more effective to increase U.S. government support but in the long term (about after 5 years), efforts on the domestic factors influence on the U.S. government support more than efforts on the foreign factors. The Korean government counter reaction among the influencing factors on the U.S. government support plays a major role to explain this result
Models with Men and Women: Representing Gender in Dynamic Modeling of Social Systems.
Palmer, Erika; Wilson, Benedicte
2018-04-01
Dynamic engineering models have yet to be evaluated in the context of feminist engineering ethics. Decision-making concerning gender in dynamic modeling design is a gender and ethical issue that is important to address regardless of the system in which the dynamic modeling is applied. There are many dynamic modeling tools that operationally include the female population, however, there is an important distinction between females and women; it is the difference between biological sex and the social construct of gender, which is fluid and changes over time and geography. The ethical oversight in failing to represent or misrepresenting gender in model design when it is relevant to the model purpose can have implications for model validity and policy model development. This paper highlights this gender issue in the context of feminist engineering ethics using a dynamic population model. Women are often represented in this type of model only in their biological capacity, while lacking their gender identity. This illustrative example also highlights how language, including the naming of variables and communication with decision-makers, plays a role in this gender issue.
Sternberg, Shlomo
2010-01-01
Celebrated mathematician Shlomo Sternberg, a pioneer in the field of dynamical systems, created this modern one-semester introduction to the subject for his classes at Harvard University. Its wide-ranging treatment covers one-dimensional dynamics, differential equations, random walks, iterated function systems, symbolic dynamics, and Markov chains. Supplementary materials offer a variety of online components, including PowerPoint lecture slides for professors and MATLAB exercises.""Even though there are many dynamical systems books on the market, this book is bound to become a classic. The the
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lode, Axel U.J.
2013-01-01
This thesis explores the quantum many-body tunneling dynamics of open ultracold bosonic systems with the recently developed multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree for bosons (MCTDHB) method. The capabilities of MCTDHB to provide solutions to the full time-dependent many-body problem are assessed in a benchmark using the analytically solvable harmonic interaction Hamiltonian and a generalization of it with time-dependent both one- and two-body potentials. In a comparison with numerically exact MCTDHB results, it is shown that e.g. lattice methods fail qualitatively to describe the tunneling dynamics. A model assembling the many-body physics of the process from basic simultaneously happening single-particle processes is derived and verified with a numerically exact MCTDHB description. The generality of the model is demonstrated even for strong interactions and large particle numbers. The ejection of the bosons from the source occurs with characteristic velocities. These velocities are defined by the chemical potentials of systems with different particle numbers which are converted to kinetic energy. The tunneling process is accompanied by fragmentation: the ejected bosons lose their coherence with the source and among each other. It is shown that the various aspects of the tunneling dynamics' can be controlled well with the interaction and the potential threshold.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lode, Axel U.J.
2013-06-03
This thesis explores the quantum many-body tunneling dynamics of open ultracold bosonic systems with the recently developed multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree for bosons (MCTDHB) method. The capabilities of MCTDHB to provide solutions to the full time-dependent many-body problem are assessed in a benchmark using the analytically solvable harmonic interaction Hamiltonian and a generalization of it with time-dependent both one- and two-body potentials. In a comparison with numerically exact MCTDHB results, it is shown that e.g. lattice methods fail qualitatively to describe the tunneling dynamics. A model assembling the many-body physics of the process from basic simultaneously happening single-particle processes is derived and verified with a numerically exact MCTDHB description. The generality of the model is demonstrated even for strong interactions and large particle numbers. The ejection of the bosons from the source occurs with characteristic velocities. These velocities are defined by the chemical potentials of systems with different particle numbers which are converted to kinetic energy. The tunneling process is accompanied by fragmentation: the ejected bosons lose their coherence with the source and among each other. It is shown that the various aspects of the tunneling dynamics' can be controlled well with the interaction and the potential threshold.
Givens, J.; Padowski, J.; Malek, K.; Guzman, C.; Boll, J.; Adam, J. C.; Witinok-Huber, R.
2017-12-01
In the face of climate change and multi-scalar governance objectives, achieving resilience of food-energy-water (FEW) systems requires interdisciplinary approaches. Through coordinated modeling and management efforts, we study "Innovations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (INFEWS)" through a case-study in the Columbia River Basin. Previous research on FEW system management and resilience includes some attention to social dynamics (e.g., economic, governance); however, more research is needed to better address social science perspectives. Decisions ultimately taken in this river basin would occur among stakeholders encompassing various institutional power structures including multiple U.S. states, tribal lands, and sovereign nations. The social science lens draws attention to the incompatibility between the engineering definition of resilience (i.e., return to equilibrium or a singular stable state) and the ecological and social system realities, more explicit in the ecological interpretation of resilience (i.e., the ability of a system to move into a different, possibly more resilient state). Social science perspectives include but are not limited to differing views on resilience as normative, system persistence versus transformation, and system boundary issues. To expand understanding of resilience and objectives for complex and dynamic systems, concepts related to inequality, heterogeneity, power, agency, trust, values, culture, history, conflict, and system feedbacks must be more tightly integrated into FEW research. We identify gaps in knowledge and data, and the value and complexity of incorporating social components and processes into systems models. We posit that socio-biophysical system resilience modeling would address important complex, dynamic social relationships, including non-linear dynamics of social interactions, to offer an improved understanding of sustainable management in FEW systems. Conceptual modeling that is presented in our study, represents
High tech supply chain simulation based on dynamical systems model
Yuan, X.; Ashayeri, J.
2013-01-01
During the last 45 years, system dynamics as a continuous type of simulation has been used for simulating various problems, ranging from economic to engineering and managerial when limited (historical) information is available. Control theory is another alternative for continuous simulation that
Valuating Indonesian upstream oil management scenario through system dynamics modelling
Ketut Gunarta, I.; Putri, F. A.
2018-04-01
Under the existing regulation in Constitution Number 22 Year 2001 (UU No 22 Tahun 2001), Production Sharing Contract (PSC) continues to be the scenario in conducting oil and gas upstream mining activities as the previous regulation (UU No. 8 Tahun 1971). Because of the high costs and risks in upstream mining activities, the contractors are dominated by foreign companies, meanwhile National Oil Company (NOC) doesn’t act much. The domination of foreign contractor companies also warned Indonesia in several issues addressing to energy independence and energy security. Therefore, to achieve the goals of energy which is independence and security, there need to be a revision in upstream oil activities regulating scenario. The scenarios will be comparing the current scenario, which is PSC, with the “full concession” scenario for National Oil Company (NOC) in managing oil upstream mining activities. Both scenario will be modelled using System Dynamics methodology and assessed furthermore using financial valuation method of income approach. Under the 2 scenarios, the author will compare which scenario is better for upstream oil management in reaching the goals mentioned before and more profitable in financial aspect. From the simulation, it is gathered that concession scenario offers better option than PSC in reaching energy independence and energy security.
Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.
1999-02-24
The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.
Kenbeek, W.K.
2012-01-01
System Dynamics modelling is a promising tool to teach secondary school students how complex systems (such as the climate on earth) work, as well as to give these students the opportunity to experience how System Dynamics modelling can be used in science. However, research to date has shown that
Small System dynamics models for big issues : Triple jump towards real-world complexity
Pruyt, E.
2013-01-01
System Dynamics (SD) is a method to describe, model, simulate and analyze dynamically complex issues and/or systems in terms of the processes, information, organizational boundaries and strategies. Quantitative SD modeling, simulation and analysis facilitates the (re)design of systems and design of
Kumar, Praveen; Chalise, Nishesh; Yadama, Gautam N
2016-04-26
More than 3 billion of the world's population are affected by household air pollution from relying on unprocessed solid fuels for heating and cooking. Household air pollution is harmful to human health, climate, and environment. Sustained uptake and use of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels are proposed as solutions to this problem. In this paper, we present our study protocol aimed at understanding multiple interacting feedback mechanisms involved in the dynamic behavior between social, ecological, and technological systems driving sustained use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies among the rural poor in India. This study uses a comparative case study design to understand the dynamics of sustained use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels in four rural communities of Rajasthan, India. The study adopts a community based system dynamics modeling approach. We describe our approach of using community based system dynamics with rural communities to delineate the feedback mechanisms involved in the uptake and sustainment of clean cooking technologies. We develop a reference mode with communities showing the trend over time of use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels in these communities. Subsequently, the study develops a system dynamics model with communities to understand the complex sub-systems driving the behavior in these communities as reflected in the reference mode. We use group model building techniques to facilitate participation of relevant stakeholders in the four communities and elicit a narrative describing the feedback mechanisms underlying sustained adoption or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies. In understanding the dynamics of feedback mechanisms in the uptake and exclusive use of cleaner cooking systems, we increase the likelihood of dissemination and implementation of efficacious interventions into everyday settings to improve the health and wellbeing of women and children most affected
Computational Psychometrics for Modeling System Dynamics during Stressful Disasters
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Pietro Cipresso
2017-08-01
Full Text Available Disasters can be very stressful events. However, computational models of stress require data that might be very difficult to collect during disasters. Moreover, personal experiences are not repeatable, so it is not possible to collect bottom-up information when building a coherent model. To overcome these problems, we propose the use of computational models and virtual reality integration to recreate disaster situations, while examining possible dynamics in order to understand human behavior and relative consequences. By providing realistic parameters associated with disaster situations, computational scientists can work more closely with emergency responders to improve the quality of interventions in the future.
Dynamics of Charged Particulate Systems Modeling, Theory and Computation
Zohdi, Tarek I
2012-01-01
The objective of this monograph is to provide a concise introduction to the dynamics of systems comprised of charged small-scale particles. Flowing, small-scale, particles ("particulates'') are ubiquitous in industrial processes and in the natural sciences. Applications include electrostatic copiers, inkjet printers, powder coating machines, etc., and a variety of manufacturing processes. Due to their small-scale size, external electromagnetic fields can be utilized to manipulate and control charged particulates in industrial processes in order to achieve results that are not possible by purely mechanical means alone. A unique feature of small-scale particulate flows is that they exhibit a strong sensitivity to interparticle near-field forces, leading to nonstandard particulate dynamics, agglomeration and cluster formation, which can strongly affect manufactured product quality. This monograph also provides an introduction to the mathematically-related topic of the dynamics of swarms of interacting objects, ...
Fitkov-Norris, Elena; Yeghiazarian, Ara
2016-11-01
The analytical tools available to social scientists have traditionally been adapted from tools originally designed for analysis of natural science phenomena. This article discusses the applicability of systems dynamics - a qualitative based modelling approach, as a possible analysis and simulation tool that bridges the gap between social and natural sciences. After a brief overview of the systems dynamics modelling methodology, the advantages as well as limiting factors of systems dynamics to the potential applications in the field of social sciences and human interactions are discussed. The issues arise with regards to operationalization and quantification of latent constructs at the simulation building stage of the systems dynamics methodology and measurement theory is proposed as a ready and waiting solution to the problem of dynamic model calibration, with a view of improving simulation model reliability and validity and encouraging the development of standardised, modular system dynamics models that can be used in social science research.
Dynamic Systems and Control Engineering
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Jong Seok
1994-02-01
This book deals with introduction of dynamic system and control engineering, frequency domain modeling of dynamic system, temporal modeling of dynamic system, typical dynamic system and automatic control device, performance and stability of control system, root locus analysis, analysis of frequency domain dynamic system, design of frequency domain dynamic system, design and analysis of space, space of control system and digital control system such as control system design of direct digital and digitalization of consecutive control system.
Dynamic Systems and Control Engineering
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Jong Seok
1994-02-15
This book deals with introduction of dynamic system and control engineering, frequency domain modeling of dynamic system, temporal modeling of dynamic system, typical dynamic system and automatic control device, performance and stability of control system, root locus analysis, analysis of frequency domain dynamic system, design of frequency domain dynamic system, design and analysis of space, space of control system and digital control system such as control system design of direct digital and digitalization of consecutive control system.
Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Nikola Simidjievski
Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.
Emergent spatial structures in flocking models: a dynamical system insight.
Caussin, Jean-Baptiste; Solon, Alexandre; Peshkov, Anton; Chaté, Hugues; Dauxois, Thierry; Tailleur, Julien; Vitelli, Vincenzo; Bartolo, Denis
2014-04-11
We show that hydrodynamic theories of polar active matter generically possess inhomogeneous traveling solutions. We introduce a unifying dynamical-system framework to establish the shape of these intrinsically nonlinear patterns, and show that they correspond to those hitherto observed in experiments and numerical simulation: periodic density waves, and solitonic bands, or polar-liquid droplets both cruising in isotropic phases. We elucidate their respective multiplicity and mutual relations, as well as their existence domain.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Zhao
2016-01-01
Full Text Available An improved smooth adaptive internal model control based on U model control method is presented to simplify modeling structure and parameter identification for a class of uncertain dynamic systems with unknown model parameters and bounded external disturbances. Differing from traditional adaptive methods, the proposed controller can simplify the identification of time-varying parameters in presence of bounded external disturbances. Combining the small gain theorem and the virtual equivalent system theory, learning rate of smooth adaptive internal model controller has been analyzed and the closed-loop virtual equivalent system based on discrete U model has been constructed as well. The convergence of this virtual equivalent system is proved, which further shows the convergence of the complex closed-loop discrete U model system. Finally, simulation and experimental results on a typical nonlinear dynamic system verified the feasibility of the proposed algorithm. The proposed method is shown to have lighter identification burden and higher control accuracy than the traditional adaptive controller.
Coupled Dynamic Modeling of Floating Wind Turbine Systems: Preprint
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Wayman, E. N.; Sclavounos, P. D.; Butterfield, S.; Jonkman, J.; Musial, W.
2006-03-01
This article presents a collaborative research program that the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) and the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) have undertaken to develop innovative and cost-effective floating and mooring systems for offshore wind turbines in water depths of 10-200 m. Methods for the coupled structural, hydrodynamic, and aerodynamic analysis of floating wind turbine systems are presented in the frequency domain. This analysis was conducted by coupling the aerodynamics and structural dynamics code FAST [4] developed at NREL with the wave load and response simulation code WAMIT (Wave Analysis at MIT) [15] developed at MIT. Analysis tools were developed to consider coupled interactions between the wind turbine and the floating system. These include the gyroscopic loads of the wind turbine rotor on the tower and floater, the aerodynamic damping introduced by the wind turbine rotor, the hydrodynamic damping introduced by wave-body interactions, and the hydrodynamic forces caused by wave excitation. Analyses were conducted for two floater concepts coupled with the NREL 5-MW Offshore Baseline wind turbine in water depths of 10-200 m: the MIT/NREL Shallow Drafted Barge (SDB) and the MIT/NREL Tension Leg Platform (TLP). These concepts were chosen to represent two different methods of achieving stability to identify differences in performance and cost of the different stability methods. The static and dynamic analyses of these structures evaluate the systems' responses to wave excitation at a range of frequencies, the systems' natural frequencies, and the standard deviations of the systems' motions in each degree of freedom in various wind and wave environments. This article in various wind and wave environments. This article explores the effects of coupling the wind turbine with the floating platform, the effects of water depth, and the effects of wind speed on the systems' performance. An economic feasibility analysis of
Electroneutral models for dynamic Poisson-Nernst-Planck systems
Song, Zilong; Cao, Xiulei; Huang, Huaxiong
2018-01-01
The Poisson-Nernst-Planck (PNP) system is a standard model for describing ion transport. In many applications, e.g., ions in biological tissues, the presence of thin boundary layers poses both modeling and computational challenges. In this paper, we derive simplified electroneutral (EN) models where the thin boundary layers are replaced by effective boundary conditions. There are two major advantages of EN models. First, it is much cheaper to solve them numerically. Second, EN models are easier to deal with compared to the original PNP system; therefore, it would also be easier to derive macroscopic models for cellular structures using EN models. Even though the approach used here is applicable to higher-dimensional cases, this paper mainly focuses on the one-dimensional system, including the general multi-ion case. Using systematic asymptotic analysis, we derive a variety of effective boundary conditions directly applicable to the EN system for the bulk region. This EN system can be solved directly and efficiently without computing the solution in the boundary layer. The derivation is based on matched asymptotics, and the key idea is to bring back higher-order contributions into the effective boundary conditions. For Dirichlet boundary conditions, the higher-order terms can be neglected and the classical results (continuity of electrochemical potential) are recovered. For flux boundary conditions, higher-order terms account for the accumulation of ions in boundary layer and neglecting them leads to physically incorrect solutions. To validate the EN model, numerical computations are carried out for several examples. Our results show that solving the EN model is much more efficient than the original PNP system. Implemented with the Hodgkin-Huxley model, the computational time for solving the EN model is significantly reduced without sacrificing the accuracy of the solution due to the fact that it allows for relatively large mesh and time-step sizes.
Kleijnen, J.P.C.
1995-01-01
This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for
Modeling and simulation of dynamic voltage restorer in power system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Abdel Aziz, M.A.A.M.
2012-01-01
There are many loads subjected to several Power Quality Problems such as voltage sags/swells, unbalance, harmonics distortion, and short interruption. These loads encompass a wide range of equipment which are very sensitive to voltage disturbances. The Dynamic Voltage Restorer (DVR) has recently been introduced to protect sensitive loads from voltage sags and other voltage disturbances in addition to this, it mitigates current harmonics distortion. It is a series connected power electronic based device. It is considered as one of the most efficient and effective solutions. Its appeal includes smaller size and fast dynamic response to disturbances. This work describes a proposal of the DVR to improve power quality distribution (medium voltage) system. The control of the compensation voltage and harmonics cancellation in the DVR is based on Adaptive Noise Canceling (ANC) technique. Simulation results carried out by PSCAD/EMTDC to investigate the performance of the proposed method.
Dynamic room pricing model for hotel revenue management systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Heba Abdel Aziz
2011-11-01
Full Text Available This paper addresses the problem of room pricing in hotels. We propose a hotel revenue management model based on dynamic pricing to provide hotel managers with a flexible and efficient decision support tool for room revenue maximization. The two pillars of the proposed framework are a novel optimization model, and a multi-class scheme similar to the one implemented in airlines. Our hypothesis is that this framework can overcome the limitations associated with the research gaps in pricing literature; and can also contribute significantly in increasing the revenue of hotels. We test this hypothesis on three different approaches, and the results show an increase in revenue compared to the classical model used in literature.
Phenomenological approach to the statistics and dynamics of model systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, M.Y.
1985-01-01
This thesis investigates the equilibrium and nonequilibrium properties of some model systems, and consists of two parts. Part 1 deals with phase transitions in frustrated xy models, which can serve as a model for the coupled Josephson junction arrays. The Hubbard-Stratanovich transform is developed to construct the Landau-Ginzburg-Wilson Hamiltonians for uniformly frustrated xy models both on a square lattice and on a triangular lattice, which reflect the formation of various superlattices according to the frustration f. Near the critical point, the system with f equal to 1/4 on a triangular lattice is shown to belong to the same universality class as the fully frustrated system on a square lattice. By decomposing two mode systems into two coupled xy models and by applying the Migdal-Kadanoff approximation, the possibilities of Ising-like or three-state Potts-like transition are shown in addition to the Kosterlitz-Thouless-like ones. Part 2 considers the time evaluation of model systems with retarded interactions. For such systems, a master equation is derived with non-Markovian character. It is shown that in higher dimensions, the interplay between interaction strength and delay can lead to complicated behavior
Explorations in combining cognitive models of individuals and system dynamics models of groups.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Backus, George A.
2008-07-01
This report documents a demonstration model of interacting insurgent leadership, military leadership, government leadership, and societal dynamics under a variety of interventions. The primary focus of the work is the portrayal of a token societal model that responds to leadership activities. The model also includes a linkage between leadership and society that implicitly represents the leadership subordinates as they directly interact with the population. The societal model is meant to demonstrate the efficacy and viability of using System Dynamics (SD) methods to simulate populations and that these can then connect to cognitive models depicting individuals. SD models typically focus on average behavior and thus have limited applicability to describe small groups or individuals. On the other hand, cognitive models readily describe individual behavior but can become cumbersome when used to describe populations. Realistic security situations are invariably a mix of individual and population dynamics. Therefore, the ability to tie SD models to cognitive models provides a critical capability that would be otherwise be unavailable.
Inoue, Kentaro; Maeda, Kazuhiro; Miyabe, Takaaki; Matsuoka, Yu; Kurata, Hiroyuki
2014-09-01
Mathematical modeling has become a standard technique to understand the dynamics of complex biochemical systems. To promote the modeling, we had developed the CADLIVE dynamic simulator that automatically converted a biochemical map into its associated mathematical model, simulated its dynamic behaviors and analyzed its robustness. To enhance the feasibility by CADLIVE and extend its functions, we propose the CADLIVE toolbox available for MATLAB, which implements not only the existing functions of the CADLIVE dynamic simulator, but also the latest tools including global parameter search methods with robustness analysis. The seamless, bottom-up processes consisting of biochemical network construction, automatic construction of its dynamic model, simulation, optimization, and S-system analysis greatly facilitate dynamic modeling, contributing to the research of systems biology and synthetic biology. This application can be freely downloaded from http://www.cadlive.jp/CADLIVE_MATLAB/ together with an instruction.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xianhong Li
2013-01-01
Full Text Available A general nonlinear time-varying (NLTV dynamic model and linear time-varying (LTV dynamic model are presented for shield tunnel boring machine (TBM cutterhead driving system, respectively. Different gear backlashes and mesh damped and transmission errors are considered in the NLTV dynamic model. The corresponding multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO state space models are also presented. Through analyzing the linear dynamic model, the optimal reducer ratio (ORR and optimal transmission ratio (OTR are obtained for the shield TBM cutterhead driving system, respectively. The NLTV and LTV dynamic models are numerically simulated, and the effects of physical parameters under various conditions of NLTV dynamic model are analyzed. Physical parameters such as the load torque, gear backlash and transmission error, gear mesh stiffness and damped, pinions inertia and damped, large gear inertia and damped, and motor rotor inertia and damped are investigated in detail to analyze their effects on dynamic response and performances of the shield TBM cutterhead driving system. Some preliminary approaches are proposed to improve dynamic performances of the cutterhead driving system, and dynamic models will provide a foundation for shield TBM cutterhead driving system's cutterhead fault diagnosis, motion control, and torque synchronous control.
Study of system dynamics model and control of a high-power LED lighting luminaire
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Huang, B.-J.; Hsu, P.-C.; Wu, M.-S.; Tang, C.-W.
2007-01-01
The purpose of the present study is to design a current control system which is robust to the system dynamics uncertainty and the disturbance of ambient temperature to assure a stable optical output property of LED. The system dynamics model of the LED lighting system was first derived. A 96 W high-power LED luminaire was designed and built in the present study. The linearly perturbed system dynamics model for the LED luminaire is derived experimentally. The dynamics model of LED lighting system is of a multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) system with two inputs (applied voltage and ambient temperature) and two outputs (forward current and heat conducting body temperature). A step response test method was employed to the 96 W LED luminaire to identify the system dynamics model. It is found that the current model is just a constant gain (resistance) and the disturbance model is of first order, both changing with operating conditions (voltage and ambient temperature). A feedback control system using PI algorithm was designed using the results of the system dynamics model. The control system was implemented on a PIC microprocessor. Experimental results show that the control system can stably and accurately control the LED current to a constant value at the variation of ambient temperature up to 40 o C. The control system is shown to have a robust property with respect to the plant uncertainty and the ambient temperature disturbance
Dynamics of underactuated multibody systems modeling, control and optimal design
Seifried, Robert
2014-01-01
Underactuated multibody systems are intriguing mechatronic systems, as they possess fewer control inputs than degrees of freedom. Some examples are modern light-weight flexible robots and articulated manipulators with passive joints. This book investigates such underactuated multibody systems from an integrated perspective. This includes all major steps from the modeling of rigid and flexible multibody systems, through nonlinear control theory, to optimal system design. The underlying theories and techniques from these different fields are presented using a self-contained and unified approach and notation system. Subsequently, the book focuses on applications to large multibody systems with multiple degrees of freedom, which require a combination of symbolical and numerical procedures. Finally, an integrated, optimization-based design procedure is proposed, whereby both structural and control design are considered concurrently. Each chapter is supplemented by illustrated examples.
Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Hansen, Anca D.; Iov, Florin; Sørensen, Poul
, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine concepts, their performance in normal or fault operation being assessed and discussed by means of simulations. The described control......This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risø-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database...... of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built...
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yang Yu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available The structural scheme of mechanical elastic energy storage (MEES system served by permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM and bidirectional converters is designed. The aim of the research is to model and control the complex electromechanical system. The mechanical device of the complex system is considered as a node in generalized coordinate system, the terse nonlinear dynamic model of electromechanical coupling for the electromechanical system is constructed through Lagrange-Maxwell energy method, and the detailed deduction of the mathematical model is presented in the paper. The theory of direct feedback linearization (DFL is applied to decouple the nonlinear dynamic model and convert the developed model from nonlinear to linear. The optimal control theory is utilized to accomplish speed tracking control for the linearized system. The simulation results in three different cases show that the proposed nonlinear dynamic model of MEES system is correct; the designed algorithm has a better control performance in contrast with the conventional PI control.
Morecroft, John
System dynamics is an approach for thinking about and simulating situations and organisations of all kinds and sizes by visualising how the elements fit together, interact and change over time. This chapter, written by John Morecroft, describes modern system dynamics which retains the fundamentals developed in the 1950s by Jay W. Forrester of the MIT Sloan School of Management. It looks at feedback loops and time delays that affect system behaviour in a non-linear way, and illustrates how dynamic behaviour depends upon feedback loop structures. It also recognises improvements as part of the ongoing process of managing a situation in order to achieve goals. Significantly it recognises the importance of context, and practitioner skills. Feedback systems thinking views problems and solutions as being intertwined. The main concepts and tools: feedback structure and behaviour, causal loop diagrams, dynamics, are practically illustrated in a wide variety of contexts from a hot water shower through to a symphony orchestra and the practical application of the approach is described through several real examples of its use for strategic planning and evaluation.
Nitrogen dynamics in flooded soil systems: An overview on concepts and performance of models
Khairudin, Nurul; Gaydon, Donald S.; Jing, Qi; Zakaria, Mohamad P.; Struik, Paul C.; Keesman, Karel J.
2018-01-01
Extensive modelling studies on nitrogen (N) dynamics in flooded soil systems have been published. Consequently, many N dynamics models are available for users to select from. With the current research trend, inclined towards multi-disciplinary research, and with substantial progress in understanding
Dynamics of pesticide uptake into plants: From system functioning to parsimonious modeling
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Wannaz, Cedric
2013-01-01
Dynamic plant uptake models are suitable for assessing environmental fate and behavior of toxic chemicals in food crops. However, existing tools mostly lack in-depth analysis of system dynamics. Furthermore, no existing model is available as parameterized version that is easily applicable for use...
An Exploration of the System Dynamics Field : A Model-Based Policy Analysis
Rose, A.C.
2014-01-01
This report presents a first look study at the field of System Dynamics. The objective of the study is to perform a model-based policy analysis in order to investigate the future advancement of the System Dynamics field. The aim of this investigation is to determine what this advancement should look
System dynamics modeling on health care: supply and demand of dementia care
Rouwette, E.A.J.A.
2006-01-01
This presentation will address the use of system dynamics models to analyze complex problems in health care. System dynamics has been used on health related issues since at least the 1960s and in the Netherlands since the 1980s. In this approach a group of experts and stakeholders participates in
Birkhoff, George D
1927-01-01
His research in dynamics constitutes the middle period of Birkhoff's scientific career, that of maturity and greatest power. -Yearbook of the American Philosophical Society The author's great book€¦is well known to all, and the diverse active modern developments in mathematics which have been inspired by this volume bear the most eloquent testimony to its quality and influence. -Zentralblatt MATH In 1927, G. D. Birkhoff wrote a remarkable treatise on the theory of dynamical systems that would inspire many later mathematicians to do great work. To a large extent, Birkhoff was writing about his o
Dynamic modelling for two-phase flow systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Guerra, M.A.
1991-06-01
Several models for two-phase flow have been studied, developing a thermal-hydraulic analysis code with one of these models. The program calculates, for one-dimensional cases with variable flow area, the transient behaviour of system process variables, when the boundary conditions (heat flux, flow rate, enthalpy and pressure) are functions of time. The modular structure of the code, eases the program growth. In fact, the present work is the basis for a general purpose accident and transient analysis code in nuclear reactors. Code verification has been made against RETRAN-02 results. Satisfactory results have been achieved with the present version of the code. (Author) [es
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Chellaboina Vijaysekhar
2005-01-01
Full Text Available We develop thermodynamic models for discrete-time large-scale dynamical systems. Specifically, using compartmental dynamical system theory, we develop energy flow models possessing energy conservation, energy equipartition, temperature equipartition, and entropy nonconservation principles for discrete-time, large-scale dynamical systems. Furthermore, we introduce a new and dual notion to entropy; namely, ectropy, as a measure of the tendency of a dynamical system to do useful work and grow more organized, and show that conservation of energy in an isolated thermodynamic system necessarily leads to nonconservation of ectropy and entropy. In addition, using the system ectropy as a Lyapunov function candidate, we show that our discrete-time, large-scale thermodynamic energy flow model has convergent trajectories to Lyapunov stable equilibria determined by the system initial subsystem energies.
Function of dynamic models in systems biology: linking structure to behaviour.
Knüpfer, Christian; Beckstein, Clemens
2013-10-08
Dynamic models in Systems Biology are used in computational simulation experiments for addressing biological questions. The complexity of the modelled biological systems and the growing number and size of the models calls for computer support for modelling and simulation in Systems Biology. This computer support has to be based on formal representations of relevant knowledge fragments. In this paper we describe different functional aspects of dynamic models. This description is conceptually embedded in our "meaning facets" framework which systematises the interpretation of dynamic models in structural, functional and behavioural facets. Here we focus on how function links the structure and the behaviour of a model. Models play a specific role (teleological function) in the scientific process of finding explanations for dynamic phenomena. In order to fulfil this role a model has to be used in simulation experiments (pragmatical function). A simulation experiment always refers to a specific situation and a state of the model and the modelled system (conditional function). We claim that the function of dynamic models refers to both the simulation experiment executed by software (intrinsic function) and the biological experiment which produces the phenomena under investigation (extrinsic function). We use the presented conceptual framework for the function of dynamic models to review formal accounts for functional aspects of models in Systems Biology, such as checklists, ontologies, and formal languages. Furthermore, we identify missing formal accounts for some of the functional aspects. In order to fill one of these gaps we propose an ontology for the teleological function of models. We have thoroughly analysed the role and use of models in Systems Biology. The resulting conceptual framework for the function of models is an important first step towards a comprehensive formal representation of the functional knowledge involved in the modelling and simulation process
used three species of endangered butterflies as a model system to rigorously investigate the source-sink dynamics of species being managed on military...lands. Butterflies have numerous advantages as models for source-sink dynamics , including rapid generation times and relatively limited dispersal, but...they are subject to the same processes that determine source-sink dynamics of longer-lived, more vagile taxa.1.2 Technical Approach: For two of our
Automated sensitivity analysis: New tools for modeling complex dynamic systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pin, F.G.
1987-01-01
Sensitivity analysis is an established methodology used by researchers in almost every field to gain essential insight in design and modeling studies and in performance assessments of complex systems. Conventional sensitivity analysis methodologies, however, have not enjoyed the widespread use they deserve considering the wealth of information they can provide, partly because of their prohibitive cost or the large initial analytical investment they require. Automated systems have recently been developed at ORNL to eliminate these drawbacks. Compilers such as GRESS and EXAP now allow automatic and cost effective calculation of sensitivities in FORTRAN computer codes. In this paper, these and other related tools are described and their impact and applicability in the general areas of modeling, performance assessment and decision making for radioactive waste isolation problems are discussed
MacLeod, Miles; Nersessian, Nancy J
2015-02-01
In this paper we draw upon rich ethnographic data of two systems biology labs to explore the roles of explanation and understanding in large-scale systems modeling. We illustrate practices that depart from the goal of dynamic mechanistic explanation for the sake of more limited modeling goals. These processes use abstract mathematical formulations of bio-molecular interactions and data fitting techniques which we call top-down abstraction to trade away accurate mechanistic accounts of large-scale systems for specific information about aspects of those systems. We characterize these practices as pragmatic responses to the constraints many modelers of large-scale systems face, which in turn generate more limited pragmatic non-mechanistic forms of understanding of systems. These forms aim at knowledge of how to predict system responses in order to manipulate and control some aspects of them. We propose that this analysis of understanding provides a way to interpret what many systems biologists are aiming for in practice when they talk about the objective of a "systems-level understanding." Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Lan, C. Edward; Ge, Fuying
1989-01-01
Control system design for general nonlinear flight dynamic models is considered through numerical simulation. The design is accomplished through a numerical optimizer coupled with analysis of flight dynamic equations. The general flight dynamic equations are numerically integrated and dynamic characteristics are then identified from the dynamic response. The design variables are determined iteratively by the optimizer to optimize a prescribed objective function which is related to desired dynamic characteristics. Generality of the method allows nonlinear effects to aerodynamics and dynamic coupling to be considered in the design process. To demonstrate the method, nonlinear simulation models for an F-5A and an F-16 configurations are used to design dampers to satisfy specifications on flying qualities and control systems to prevent departure. The results indicate that the present method is simple in formulation and effective in satisfying the design objectives.
Zimmerman, Lindsey; Lounsbury, David W; Rosen, Craig S; Kimerling, Rachel; Trafton, Jodie A; Lindley, Steven E
2016-11-01
Implementation planning typically incorporates stakeholder input. Quality improvement efforts provide data-based feedback regarding progress. Participatory system dynamics modeling (PSD) triangulates stakeholder expertise, data and simulation of implementation plans prior to attempting change. Frontline staff in one VA outpatient mental health system used PSD to examine policy and procedural "mechanisms" they believe underlie local capacity to implement evidence-based psychotherapies (EBPs) for PTSD and depression. We piloted the PSD process, simulating implementation plans to improve EBP reach. Findings indicate PSD is a feasible, useful strategy for building stakeholder consensus, and may save time and effort as compared to trial-and-error EBP implementation planning.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Vahid Behjat
2014-12-01
Full Text Available This research work develops dynamic model of a gearless small scale wind power generation system based on a direct driven single sided outer rotor AFPMSG with coreless armature winding. Dynamic modeling of the AFPMSG based wind turbine requires machine parameters. To this end, a 3D FEM model of the generator is developed and from magnetostatic and transient analysis of the FEM model, machine parameters are calculated and utilized in dynamic modeling of the system. A maximum power point tracking (MPPT-based FOC control approach is used to obtain maximum power from the variable wind speed. The simulation results show the proper performance of the developed dynamic model of the AFPMSG, control approach and power generation system.
Hardware-in-the-loop vehicle system including dynamic fuel cell model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lemes, Z.; Lenhart, T.; Braun, M.; Maencher, H. [MAGNUM Automatisierungstechnik GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany)
2005-07-01
In order to reduce costs and accelerate the development of fuel cells and systems the usage of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing and dynamic modelling opens new possibilities. The dynamic model of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) together with a vehicle model is used to carry out a comprehensive system investigation, which allows designing and optimising the behaviour of the components and the entire fuel cell system. The set-up of a HIL system enables real time interaction between the selected hardware and the model. (orig.)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
García-Salcedo, Ricardo; Sanchez-Guzmán, Daniel; Gonzalez, Tame; Horta-Rangel, Francisco A; Quiros, Israel
2015-01-01
The theory of dynamical systems is a very complex subject that has produced several surprises in the recent past in connection with the theory of chaos and fractals. The application of the tools of dynamical systems in cosmological settings is less known, in spite of the number of published scientific papers on this subject. In this paper, a mostly pedagogical introduction to the cosmological application of the basic tools of dynamical systems theory is presented. It is shown that, in spite of their amazing simplicity, these tools allow us to extract essential information on the asymptotic dynamics of a wide variety of cosmological models. The power of these tools is illustrated within the context of the so-called Λ-cold dark matter (ΛCDM) and scalar field models of dark energy. This paper is suitable for teachers, undergraduate students, and postgraduate students in the disciplines of physics and mathematics. (paper)
Evolution of the DeNOC-based dynamic modelling for multibody systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S. K. Saha
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Dynamic modelling of a multibody system plays very essential role in its analyses. As a result, several methods for dynamic modelling have evolved over the years that allow one to analyse multibody systems in a very efficient manner. One such method of dynamic modelling is based on the concept of the Decoupled Natural Orthogonal Complement (DeNOC matrices. The DeNOC-based methodology for dynamics modelling, since its introduction in 1995, has been applied to a variety of multibody systems such as serial, parallel, general closed-loop, flexible, legged, cam-follower, and space robots. The methodology has also proven useful for modelling of proteins and hyper-degree-of-freedom systems like ropes, chains, etc. This paper captures the evolution of the DeNOC-based dynamic modelling applied to different type of systems, and its benefits over other existing methodologies. It is shown that the DeNOC-based modelling provides deeper understanding of the dynamics of a multibody system. The power of the DeNOC-based modelling has been illustrated using several numerical examples.
System Dynamics Modeling in Entrepreneurship Research: A Review of the Literature
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mohammad Reza Zali
2014-11-01
Full Text Available System dynamics is a strategic approach for modeling complex systems and analyzing their behavior. Dynamic behavior in entrepreneurial system can be modeled using System Dynamics Approach and dynamic hypotheses about the system`s behavior can be proposed and tested using simulation and computer aided tools. However, as the review of literature shows, studies which link system dynamics modeling with entrepreneurship are rare and fragmented. This article presents a review of studies on the subject followed by integration and discussion on main research issues that have been the focus of previous studies. The main aim of this review is to categorize the available research related to the application of system dynamics modeling in entrepreneurship to integrate research and enable recommendations for future research. The Results reveal that the previous research could be categorized under a two dimensional taxonomy composed of level of analysis and level of modeling. The Level of analysis has three categories: micro level, meso level and macro level. The Level of modeling has six hierarchical levels. This study identifies several gaps in the literature and discusses the future directions in this field.
System Dynamic Analysis of a Wind Tunnel Model with Applications to Improve Aerodynamic Data Quality
Buehrle, Ralph David
1997-01-01
The research investigates the effect of wind tunnel model system dynamics on measured aerodynamic data. During wind tunnel tests designed to obtain lift and drag data, the required aerodynamic measurements are the steady-state balance forces and moments, pressures, and model attitude. However, the wind tunnel model system can be subjected to unsteady aerodynamic and inertial loads which result in oscillatory translations and angular rotations. The steady-state force balance and inertial model attitude measurements are obtained by filtering and averaging data taken during conditions of high model vibrations. The main goals of this research are to characterize the effects of model system dynamics on the measured steady-state aerodynamic data and develop a correction technique to compensate for dynamically induced errors. Equations of motion are formulated for the dynamic response of the model system subjected to arbitrary aerodynamic and inertial inputs. The resulting modal model is examined to study the effects of the model system dynamic response on the aerodynamic data. In particular, the equations of motion are used to describe the effect of dynamics on the inertial model attitude, or angle of attack, measurement system that is used routinely at the NASA Langley Research Center and other wind tunnel facilities throughout the world. This activity was prompted by the inertial model attitude sensor response observed during high levels of model vibration while testing in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The inertial attitude sensor cannot distinguish between the gravitational acceleration and centrifugal accelerations associated with wind tunnel model system vibration, which results in a model attitude measurement bias error. Bias errors over an order of magnitude greater than the required device accuracy were found in the inertial model attitude measurements during dynamic testing of two model systems. Based on a theoretical modal
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
K. Agyapong-Kodua
2012-01-01
Full Text Available Enterprise modelling techniques support business process (reengineering by capturing existing processes and based on perceived outputs, support the design of future process models capable of meeting enterprise requirements. System dynamics modelling tools on the other hand are used extensively for policy analysis and modelling aspects of dynamics which impact on businesses. In this paper, the use of enterprise and system dynamics modelling techniques has been integrated to facilitate qualitative and quantitative reasoning about the structures and behaviours of processes and resource systems used by a Manufacturing Enterprise during the production of composite bearings. The case study testing reported has led to the specification of a new modelling methodology for analysing and managing dynamics and complexities in production systems. This methodology is based on a systematic transformation process, which synergises the use of a selection of public domain enterprise modelling, causal loop and continuous simulation modelling techniques. The success of the modelling process defined relies on the creation of useful CIMOSA process models which are then converted to causal loops. The causal loop models are then structured and translated to equivalent dynamic simulation models using the proprietary continuous simulation modelling tool iThink.
Modelling of CO2 pipelines in dynamic CCS systems
Nimtz, M.; Klatt, M.; Krautz, H. J.
2012-04-01
deviations from design values. To track the effects of load changes on the system, the software program OLGA® [SPT 2011] is used. The software will give as simulation results detailed information about the dynamic changes of pressure, temperature and mass flow within the pipeline from the power plant down to the injection well and even is able to account for influences from the reservoir. The example which will be presented includes a power grid situation wherein high load changes due to fluctuating wind power induce changes in the CCS power plant load and all associated systems, especially the CO2 mass flow in the pipeline itself. Results will be discussed with regard to the design criterions of such CCS systems and the safe operation of a pipeline under high load changes to prevent critical situations that would force a stop of power plant and injection operation or other measures like a blow down of the pipeline.
System dynamics model for environment - human systems interaction in the mining industry
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pal, B.K.
1994-01-01
Use of advanced technology in the mining activities are polluting the natural environment, interfering with the normal life of the miners/residents. In this paper, health hazards due to underground workings and effect of environmental conditions on men are discussed. A composite system inter-relationship of the mining industries with the Government, society and environmental sectors is established. Allowing certain level of pollution, a system dynamics model is developed considering the parameters like more revenues from the mining industries, degradation of quality of life index - environmental index on long-term and short-term basis, new diseases due to pollution, social awareness, health care facilities, tax exemption etc. This model will help us to understand the optimisation of the parameters to establish the better interaction in the environment-human systems in the mining industries. 14 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs
AeroPropulsoServoElasticity: Dynamic Modeling of the Variable Cycle Propulsion System
Kopasakis, George
2012-01-01
This presentation was made at the 2012 Fundamental Aeronautics Program Technical Conference and it covers research work for the Dynamic Modeling of the Variable cycle Propulsion System that was done under the Supersonics Project, in the area of AeroPropulsoServoElasticity. The presentation covers the objective for the propulsion system dynamic modeling work, followed by the work that has been done so far to model the variable Cycle Engine, modeling of the inlet, the nozzle, the modeling that has been done to model the affects of flow distortion, and finally presenting some concluding remarks and future plans.
A Dynamic Simulation Model of the Management Accounting Information Systems (MAIS)
Konstantopoulos, Nikolaos; Bekiaris, Michail G.; Zounta, Stella
2007-12-01
The aim of this paper is to examine the factors which determine the problems and the advantages on the design of management accounting information systems (MAIS). A simulation is carried out with a dynamic model of the MAIS design.
National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations are routinely used by NASA to optimize the design of propulsion systems. Current methods for CFD modeling rely on...
Multivariable control system for dynamic PEM fuel cell model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tanislav, Vasile; Carcadea, Elena; Capris, Catalin; Culcer, Mihai; Raceanu, Mircea
2010-01-01
Full text: The main objective of this work was to develop a multivariable control system of robust type for a PEM fuel cells assembly. The system will be used in static and mobile applications for different values of power, generated by a fuel cell assembly of up to 10 kW. Intermediate steps were accomplished: a study of a multivariable control strategy for a PEM fuel cell assembly; a mathematic modeling of mass and heat transfer inside of fuel cell assembly, defining the response function to hydrogen and oxygen/air mass flow and inlet pressure changes; a testing stand for fuel cell assembly; experimental determinations of transient response for PEM fuel cell assembly, and more others. To define the multivariable control system for a PEM fuel cell assembly the parameters describing the system were established. Also, there were defined the generic mass and energy balance equations as functions of derivative of m i , in and m i , out , representing the mass going into and out from the fuel cell, while Q in is the enthalpy and Q out is the enthalpy of the unused reactant gases and heat produced by the product, Q dis is the heat dissipated to the surroundings, Q c is the heat taken away from the stack by active cooling and W el is the electricity generated. (authors)
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Papageorgiou, George Nathaniel
2005-01-01
In the face of limited energy reserves and the global warming phenomenon, Europe is undergoing a transition from rapidly depleting fossil fuels to renewable unconventional energy sources. During this transition period, energy shortfalls will occur and energy prices will be increasing in an oscillating manner. As a result of the turbulence and dynamicity that will accompany the transition period, energy analysts need new appropriate methods, techniques and tools in order to develop forecasts for the behaviour of energy markets, which would assist in the long term strategic energy planning and policy analysis. This paper reviews energy market behaviour as related to policy formation, and from a dynamic point of view through the use of ''systems thinking'' and ''system dynamics'' principles, provides a framework for modelling the energy production and consumption process in relation to their environment. Thereby, effective energy planning can be developed via computerised simulation using policy experimentation. In a demonstration model depicted in this paper, it is shown that disasters due to attractive policies can be avoided by using simple computer simulation. (Author)
Sustainability-based decision making is a challenging process that requires balancing trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental components. System Dynamic (SD) models can be useful tools to inform sustainability-based decision making because they provide a holistic co...
Analysis and Modeling of Control Tasks in Dynamic Systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Ursem, Rasmus Kjær; Krink, Thiemo; Jensen, Mikkel Thomas
2002-01-01
Most applications of evolutionary algorithms deal with static optimization problems. However, in recent years, there has been a growing interest in time-varying (dynamic) problems, which are typically found in real-world scenarios. One major challenge in this field is the design of realistic test......-case generators (TCGs), which requires a systematic analysis of dynamic optimization tasks. So far, only a few TCGs have been suggested. Our investigation leads to the conclusion that these TCGs are not capable of generating realistic dynamic benchmark tests. The result of our research is the design of a new TCG...
Societal Aging in the Netherlands : Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis
Logtens, T.; Pruyt, E.; Gijsbers, G.W.
2012-01-01
Mismanagement of societal aging is an important threat to health care systems, social security systems, and the economy of many nations. a System Dynamics simulation model related to societal aging in the Netherlands and its implications for the Dutch welfare system is used here as a scenario
Wu, Desheng; Ning, Shuang
2018-07-01
Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Tian, Wei [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Sevilla, Thomas Alonso [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Zuo, Wangda [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.
2017-06-08
Historically, multizone models are widely used in building airflow and energy performance simulations due to their fast computing speed. However, multizone models assume that the air in a room is well mixed, consequently limiting their application. In specific rooms where this assumption fails, the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models may be an alternative option. Previous research has mainly focused on coupling CFD models and multizone models to study airflow in large spaces. While significant, most of these analyses did not consider the coupled simulation of the building airflow with the building's Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) systems. This paper tries to fill the gap by integrating the models for HVAC systems with coupled multizone and CFD simulations for airflows, using the Modelica simul ation platform. To improve the computational efficiency, we incorporated a simplified CFD model named fast fluid dynamics (FFD). We first introduce the data synchronization strategy and implementation in Modelica. Then, we verify the implementation using two case studies involving an isothermal and a non-isothermal flow by comparing model simulations to experiment data. Afterward, we study another three cases that are deemed more realistic. This is done by attaching a variable air volume (VAV) terminal box and a VAV system to previous flows to assess the capability of the models in studying the dynamic control of HVAC systems. Finally, we discuss further research needs on the coupled simulation using the models.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Al-Dabbagh, Ahmad W. [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Ontario Institute of Technology, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, Ontario (Canada); Lu, Lixuan [Faculty of Energy Systems and Nuclear Science, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Ontario Institute of Technology, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, Ontario (Canada)
2010-09-15
Modeling and analysis of system reliability facilitate the identification of areas of potential improvement. The Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) is an emerging discrete modeling framework that allows for capturing time dependent behaviour, switching logic and multi-state representation of system components. The objective of this research is to demonstrate the process of dynamic flowgraph modeling of a nuclear-based hydrogen production plant with the copper-chlorine (Cu-Cl) cycle. Modeling of the thermochemical process of the Cu-Cl cycle in conjunction with a networked control system proposed for monitoring and control of the process is provided. This forms the basis for future component selection. (author)
Dynamics and Collapse in a Power System Model with Voltage Variation: The Damping Effect.
Ma, Jinpeng; Sun, Yong; Yuan, Xiaoming; Kurths, Jürgen; Zhan, Meng
2016-01-01
Complex nonlinear phenomena are investigated in a basic power system model of the single-machine-infinite-bus (SMIB) with a synchronous generator modeled by a classical third-order differential equation including both angle dynamics and voltage dynamics, the so-called flux decay equation. In contrast, for the second-order differential equation considering the angle dynamics only, it is the classical swing equation. Similarities and differences of the dynamics generated between the third-order model and the second-order one are studied. We mainly find that, for positive damping, these two models show quite similar behavior, namely, stable fixed point, stable limit cycle, and their coexistence for different parameters. However, for negative damping, the second-order system can only collapse, whereas for the third-order model, more complicated behavior may happen, such as stable fixed point, limit cycle, quasi-periodicity, and chaos. Interesting partial collapse phenomena for angle instability only and not for voltage instability are also found here, including collapse from quasi-periodicity and from chaos etc. These findings not only provide a basic physical picture for power system dynamics in the third-order model incorporating voltage dynamics, but also enable us a deeper understanding of the complex dynamical behavior and even leading to a design of oscillation damping in electric power systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Andrew J. Dougill
2010-06-01
Full Text Available It is vitally important to identify agroecosystems that may cease functioning because of changing climate or land degradation. However, identifying such systems is confounded on both conceptual and methodological grounds, especially in systems that are moving toward thresholds, a common trait of dryland environments. This study explores these challenges by analyzing how a range of external pressures affect the vulnerability of dryland pastoral systems in the Kalahari. This is achieved by employing dynamic systems modeling approaches to understand the pathways by which communities became vulnerable to drought. Specifically, we evaluate how external pressures have changed: (1 different agroecosystems' abilities to tolerate drought, i.e., ecosystem resilience; (2 rural communities' abilities to adapt to drought, mediated via their access to assets; and (3 the ability of institutions and policy interventions to play a role in mediating drought-related crises, i.e., socio-political governance. This is done by reanalyzing ecological and participatory research findings along with farm-scale livestock offtake data from across the Kalahari in Botswana. An iterative process was followed to establish narratives exploring how external drivers led to changes in agroecosystem resilience, access to assets, and the institutional capacity to buffer the system. We use "causal loop diagrams" and statistical dynamic system models to express key quantitative relationships and establish future scenarios to help define where uncertainties lie by showing where the system is most sensitive to change. We highlight how that greater sharing of land management knowledge and practices between private and communal land managers can provide 'win-win-win' benefits of reducing system vulnerability, increasing economic income, and building social capital. We use future scenario analyses to identify key areas for future studies of climate change adaptation across the Kalahari.
Evaluation of Student Models on Current Socio-Scientific Topics Based on System Dynamics
Nuhoglu, Hasret
2014-01-01
This study aims to 1) enable primary school students to develop models that will help them understand and analyze a system, through a learning process based on system dynamics approach, 2) examine and evaluate students' models related to socio-scientific issues using certain criteria. The research method used is a case study. The study sample…
REMOTE SYNTHESIS AND CONTROL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OF SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODELS
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. V. Masloboev
2015-07-01
Full Text Available The general line of research is concerned with development of information technologies and computer simulation tools for management information and analytical support of complex semistructured systems. Regional socio-economic systems are consideredas a representative of this system type. Investigation is carried out within the bounds of development strategy implementation of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and national safety until 2020 in the Murmansk region, specifically under engineering of high end information infrastructure for innovation and security control problem-solving of regional development. Research methodology consists of system dynamics modeling method, distributed information system engineering technologies, pattern-based modeling and design techniques. The work deals with development of toolkit for decision-making information support problem-solving in the field of innovation security management of regional economics. For that purpose a system-dynamic models suite of innovation process standard components and information technology for remote formation and control of innovation business simulation models under research have been developed. Designed toolkit provides innovation security index dynamics forecasting and innovation business effectiveness of regional economics. Information technology is implemented within the bounds of thin client architecture and is intended for simulation models design process automation of complex systems. Technology implementation software tools provide pattern-based system-dynamic models distributed formation and simulation control of innovation processes. The technology provides availability and reusability index enhancement of information support facilities in application to innovation process simulation at the expense of distributed access to innovation business simulation modeling tools and model synthesis by the reusable components, simulating standard elements of innovation
Ligterink, N.E.
2007-01-01
Functional system dynamics is the analysis, modelling, and simulation of continuous systems usually described by partial differential equations. From the infinite degrees of freedom of such systems only a finite number of relevant variables have to be chosen for a practical model description. The proper input and output of the system are an important part of the relevant variables.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Y.F.; Peng, R.
2014-01-01
Most studies on multi-state series–parallel systems focus on the static type of system architecture. However, it is insufficient to model many complex industrial systems having several operation phases and each requires a subset of the subsystems combined together to perform certain tasks. To bridge this gap, this study takes into account this type of dynamic behavior in the multi-state series–parallel system and proposes an analytical approach to calculate the system availability and the operation cost. In this approach, Markov process is used to model the dynamics of system phase changing and component state changing, Markov reward model is used to calculate the operation cost associated with the dynamics, and universal generating function (UGF) is used to build system availability function from the system phase model and the component models. Based upon these models, an optimization problem is formulated to minimize the total system cost with the constraint that system availability is greater than a desired level. The genetic algorithm is then applied to solve the optimization problem. The proposed modeling and solution procedures are illustrated on a system design problem modified from a real-world maritime oil transportation system
Overeem, I.; Hutton, E.; Kettner, A.; Peckham, S. D.; Syvitski, J. P.
2012-12-01
The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System - CSDMS- develops a software platform with shared and coupled modules for modeling earth surface processes as a community resource. The framework allows prediction of water, sediment and nutrient transport through the landscape and seacape. The underlying paradigm is that the Earth surface we live on is a dynamic system; topography changes with seasons, with landslides and earthquakes, with erosion and deposition. The Earth Surface changes due to storms and floods, and important boundaries, like the coast, are ever-moving features. CSDMS sets out to make better predictions of these changes. Earth surface process modeling bridges the terrestrial, coastal and marine domains and requires understanding of the system over a range of time scales, which inherently needs interdisciplinarity. Members of CSDMS (~830 in July 2012) are largely from academic institutions (˜75%), followed by federal agencies (˜17%), and oil and gas companies (˜5%). Members and governmental bodies meet once annually and rely additionally on web-based information for communication. As an organization that relies on volunteer participation, CSDMS faces challenges to scientific collaboration. Encouraging volunteerism among its members to provide and adapt metadata and model code to be sufficiently standardized for coupling is crucial to building an integrated community modeling system. We here present CSDMS strategies aimed at providing the appropriate technical tools and cyberinfrastructure to support a variety of user types, ranging from advanced to novice modelers. Application of these advances in science is key, both into the educational realm and for managers and decision-makers. We discuss some of the implemented ideas to further organizational transparency and user engagement in small-scale governance, such as advanced trackers and voting systems for model development prioritization through the CSDMS wiki. We analyzed data on community
Dynamic Modeling of Process Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems
Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.
2012-01-01
Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents dynamic simulations of chemical process for primary processor technologies including: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system, the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD), and post-distillation water polishing processes such as the Volatiles Removal Assembly (VRA). These dynamic models were developed using the Aspen Custom Modeler (Registered TradeMark) and Aspen Plus(Registered TradeMark) process simulation tools. The results expand upon previous work for water recovery technology models and emphasize dynamic process modeling and results. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and model results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and available test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.
Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Seiel, Jonathan
2016-01-01
A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
F. A. Romaniouk
2008-01-01
Full Text Available The paper considers problems pertaining to mathematical modeling of a transformer substation with protected electric power lines. It is proposed to use systems of dynamic modeling for investigations applying a method of calculative experiment with the purpose to evaluate behavior of protection and automation at short circuits. The paper contains comparison of results obtained with the help of program-simulated complex on the basis of a complex mathematical model of an object and with the help of dynamic modeling system – MathLab.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tian-Syung Lan
2014-01-01
Full Text Available This study used system dynamics method to investigate the factors affecting elementary school students’ BMI values. The construction of the dynamic model is divided into the qualitative causal loop and the quantitative system dynamics modeling. According to the system dynamics modeling, this study consisted of research on the four dimensions: student’s personal life style, diet-relevant parenting behaviors, advocacy and implementation of school nutrition education, and students’ peer interaction. The results of this study showed that students with more adequate health concepts usually have better eating behaviors and consequently have less chance of becoming obese. In addition, this study also verified that educational attainment and socioeconomic status of parents have a positive correlation with students’ amounts of physical activity, and nutrition education has a prominent influence on changing students’ high-calorie diets.
Lan, Tian-Syung; Chen, Kai-Ling; Chen, Pin-Chang; Ku, Chao-Tai; Chiu, Pei-Hsuan; Wang, Meng-Hsiang
2014-01-01
This study used system dynamics method to investigate the factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values. The construction of the dynamic model is divided into the qualitative causal loop and the quantitative system dynamics modeling. According to the system dynamics modeling, this study consisted of research on the four dimensions: student's personal life style, diet-relevant parenting behaviors, advocacy and implementation of school nutrition education, and students' peer interaction. The results of this study showed that students with more adequate health concepts usually have better eating behaviors and consequently have less chance of becoming obese. In addition, this study also verified that educational attainment and socioeconomic status of parents have a positive correlation with students' amounts of physical activity, and nutrition education has a prominent influence on changing students' high-calorie diets.
Dynamic Modeling and Simulation on a Hybrid Power System for Electric Vehicle Applications
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hong-Wen He
2010-11-01
Full Text Available Hybrid power systems, formed by combining high-energy-density batteries and high-power-density ultracapacitors in appropriate ways, provide high-performance and high-efficiency power systems for electric vehicle applications. This paper first establishes dynamic models for the ultracapacitor, the battery and a passive hybrid power system, and then based on the dynamic models a comparative simulation between a battery only power system and the proposed hybrid power system was done under the UDDS (Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule. The simulation results showed that the hybrid power system could greatly optimize and improve the efficiency of the batteries and their dynamic current was also decreased due to the participation of the ultracapacitors, which would have a good influence on batteries’ cycle life. Finally, the parameter matching for the passive hybrid power system was studied by simulation and comparisons.
Modeling of Macroeconomics by a Novel Discrete Nonlinear Fractional Dynamical System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhenhua Hu
2013-01-01
Full Text Available We propose a new nonlinear economic system with fractional derivative. According to the Jumarie’s definition of fractional derivative, we obtain a discrete fractional nonlinear economic system. Three variables, the gross domestic production, inflation, and unemployment rate, are considered by this nonlinear system. Based on the concrete macroeconomic data of USA, the coefficients of this nonlinear system are estimated by the method of least squares. The application of discrete fractional economic model with linear and nonlinear structure is shown to illustrate the efficiency of modeling the macroeconomic data with discrete fractional dynamical system. The empirical study suggests that the nonlinear discrete fractional dynamical system can describe the actual economic data accurately and predict the future behavior more reasonably than the linear dynamic system. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to investigate other macroeconomic variables of more states.
Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Hettinger, Lawrence J
2016-01-01
Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models. System dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention. SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered. Contemporary work disability (WD) models provide limited insight into complexity associated with WD processes. System dynamics modeling (SDM) has the potential to capture complexity through a stakeholder-based approach that generates a simulation model consisting of multiple feedback loops. SDM may enable WD researchers and practitioners to understand the structure and behavior of the WD system as a whole, and inform development of improved strategies to manage straightforward and complex WD cases.
Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph; Seidel, Jonathan
2014-01-01
A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.propulsion system dynamics, the structural dynamics, and aerodynamics.
Review of Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Large Scale Belt Conveyor System
He, Qing; Li, Hong
Belt conveyor is one of the most important devices to transport bulk-solid material for long distance. Dynamic analysis is the key to decide whether the design is rational in technique, safe and reliable in running, feasible in economy. It is very important to study dynamic properties, improve efficiency and productivity, guarantee conveyor safe, reliable and stable running. The dynamic researches and applications of large scale belt conveyor are discussed. The main research topics, the state-of-the-art of dynamic researches on belt conveyor are analyzed. The main future works focus on dynamic analysis, modeling and simulation of main components and whole system, nonlinear modeling, simulation and vibration analysis of large scale conveyor system.
Interactive Dynamic-System Simulation
Korn, Granino A
2010-01-01
Showing you how to use personal computers for modeling and simulation, Interactive Dynamic-System Simulation, Second Edition provides a practical tutorial on interactive dynamic-system modeling and simulation. It discusses how to effectively simulate dynamical systems, such as aerospace vehicles, power plants, chemical processes, control systems, and physiological systems. Written by a pioneer in simulation, the book introduces dynamic-system models and explains how software for solving differential equations works. After demonstrating real simulation programs with simple examples, the author
PRESS-based EFOR algorithm for the dynamic parametrical modeling of nonlinear MDOF systems
Liu, Haopeng; Zhu, Yunpeng; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai
2017-09-01
In response to the identification problem concerning multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) nonlinear systems, this study presents the extended forward orthogonal regression (EFOR) based on predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) to construct a nonlinear dynamic parametrical model. The proposed parametrical model is based on the non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model and aims to explicitly reveal the physical design parameters of the system. The PRESS-based EFOR algorithm is proposed to identify such a model for MDOF systems. By using the algorithm, we built a common-structured model based on the fundamental concept of evaluating its generalization capability through cross-validation. The resulting model aims to prevent over-fitting with poor generalization performance caused by the average error reduction ratio (AERR)-based EFOR algorithm. Then, a functional relationship is established between the coefficients of the terms and the design parameters of the unified model. Moreover, a 5-DOF nonlinear system is taken as a case to illustrate the modeling of the proposed algorithm. Finally, a dynamic parametrical model of a cantilever beam is constructed from experimental data. Results indicate that the dynamic parametrical model of nonlinear systems, which depends on the PRESS-based EFOR, can accurately predict the output response, thus providing a theoretical basis for the optimal design of modeling methods for MDOF nonlinear systems.
Chen, Xiangyong; Zhang, Ancai
2014-01-01
For the particularity of warfare hybrid dynamic process, a class of warfare hybrid dynamic systems is established based on Lanchester equation in a (n,1) battle, where a heterogeneous force of n different troop types faces a homogeneous force. This model can be characterized by the interaction of continuous-time models (governed by Lanchester equation), and discrete event systems (described by variable tactics). Furthermore, an expository discussion is presented on an optimal variable tact...
Multi-Planetary Systems: Observations and Models of Dynamical Interactions
Lissauer, Jack J.
2018-01-01
More than 600 multi-planet systems are known. The vast majority of these systems have been discovered by NASA's Kepler spacecraft, but dozens were found using the Doppler technique, the first multi-exoplanet system was identified through pulsar timing, and the most massive system has been found using imaging. More than one-third of the 4000+ planet candidates found by NASA's Kepler spacecraft are associated with target stars that have more than one planet candidate, and the large number of such Kepler "multis" tells us that flat multiplanet systems like our Solar System are common. Virtually all of Kepler candidate multis are stable, as tested by numerical integrations that assume a physically motivated mass-radius relationship. Statistical studies performed on these candidate systems reveal a great deal about the architecture of planetary systems, including the typical spacing of orbits and flatness. The characteristics of several of the most interesting confirmed multi-exoplanet systems will also be discussed.HR 8799's four massive planets orbit tens of AU from their host star and travel on nearly circular orbits. PSR B1257+12 has three much smaller planets orbiting close to a neutron star. Both represent extremes and show that planet formation is a robust process that produces a diversity of outcomes. Although both exomoons and Trojan (triangle Lagrange point) planets have been searched for, neither has yet been found.
System Dynamics Model for VMI&TPL Integrated Supply Chains
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guo Li
2013-01-01
Full Text Available This paper establishes VMI-APIOBPCS II model by extending VMI-APIOBPCS model from serial supply chain to distribution supply chain. Then TPL is introduced to this VMI distribution supply chain, and operational framework and process of VMI&TPL integrated supply chain are analyzed deeply. On this basis VMI-APIOBPCS II model is then changed to VMI&TPL-APIOBPCS model and VMI&TPL integrated operation mode is simulated. Finally, compared with VMI-APIOBPCS model, the TPL’s important role of goods consolidation and risk sharing in VMI&TPL integrated supply chain is analyzed in detail from the aspects of bullwhip effect, inventory level, service level, and so on.
Ligterink, N.E.
2007-01-01
Functional system dynamics is the analysis, modelling, and simulation of continuous systems usually described by partial differential equations. From the infinite degrees of freedom of such systems only a finite number of relevant variables have to be chosen for a practical model description. The
Use of System Dynamics Modeling in Medical Education and Research Projects.
Bozikov, Jadranka; Relic, Danko; Dezelic, Gjuro
2018-01-01
The paper reviews experiences and accomplishments in application of system dynamics modeling in education, training and research projects at the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, a branch of the Zagreb University School of Medicine, Croatia. A number of simulation models developed over the past 40 years are briefly described with regard to real problems concerned, objectives and modeling methods and techniques used. Many of them have been developed as the individual students' projects as a part of their graduation, MSc or PhD theses and subsequently published in journals or conference proceedings. Some of them were later used in teaching and simulation training. System dynamics modeling proved to be not only powerful method for research and decision making but also a useful tool in medical and nursing education enabling better understanding of dynamic systems' behavior.
Optimization Scheduling Model for Wind-thermal Power System Considering the Dynamic penalty factor
PENG, Siyu; LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, Hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; LIU, Wanyu
2018-03-01
In this paper, a new dynamic economic dispatch model for power system is presented.Objective function of the proposed model presents a major novelty in the dynamic economic dispatch including wind farm: introduced the “Dynamic penalty factor”, This factor could be computed by using fuzzy logic considering both the variable nature of active wind power and power demand, and it could change the wind curtailment cost according to the different state of the power system. Case studies were carried out on the IEEE30 system. Results show that the proposed optimization model could mitigate the wind curtailment and the total cost effectively, demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed model.
Modeling the system dynamics for nutrient removal in an innovative septic tank media filter.
Xuan, Zhemin; Chang, Ni-Bin; Wanielista, Martin
2012-05-01
A next generation septic tank media filter to replace or enhance the current on-site wastewater treatment drainfields was proposed in this study. Unit operation with known treatment efficiencies, flow pattern identification, and system dynamics modeling was cohesively concatenated in order to prove the concept of a newly developed media filter. A multicompartmental model addressing system dynamics and feedbacks based on our assumed microbiological processes accounting for aerobic, anoxic, and anaerobic conditions in the media filter was constructed and calibrated with the aid of in situ measurements and the understanding of the flow patterns. Such a calibrated system dynamics model was then applied for a sensitivity analysis under changing inflow conditions based on the rates of nitrification and denitrification characterized through the field-scale testing. This advancement may contribute to design such a drainfield media filter in household septic tank systems in the future.
Solano, Javier; Duarte, José; Vargas, Erwin; Cabrera, Jhon; Jácome, Andrés; Botero, Mónica; Rey, Juan
2016-10-01
This paper addresses the Energetic Macroscopic Representation EMR, the modelling and the control of photovoltaic panel PVP generation systems for simulation purposes. The model of the PVP considers the variations on irradiance and temperature. A maximum power point tracking MPPT algorithm is considered to control the power converter. A novel EMR is proposed to consider the dynamic model of the PVP with variations in the irradiance and the temperature. The EMR is evaluated through simulations of a PVP generation system.
Dynamics model for real time diagnostics of Triga RC-1 system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gadomski, A.M.; Nanni, V.; Meo, G.
1988-01-01
This paper presents dynamics model of TRIGA RC-1 reactor system. The model is dedicated to the real-time early fault detection during a reactor operation in one week exploitation cycle. The algorithms are specially suited for real-time, long time and also accelerated simulations with assumed diagnostic oriented accuracy. The approximations, modular structure, numerical methods and validation are discussed. The elaborated model will be build in the TRIGA Supervisor System and TRIGA Diagnostic Simulator
Dynamics model for real time diagnostics of TRIGA RC-1 system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gadomski, A.M.; Nanni, V.; Meo, G.B.
1986-01-01
This paper presents dynamics model of TRIGA RC-1 reactor system. The model is dedicated to the real-time early fault detection during a reactor operation in one week exploitation cycle. The algorithms are specially suited for real-time, long time and also accelerated simulations with assumed diagnostic oriented accuracy. The approximations, modular structure, numerical methods and validation are discussed. The elaborated model will be build in the TRIGA Supervisory System and TRIGA Diagnostic Simulator. (author)
Analyzing dynamic fault trees derived from model-based system architectures
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dehlinger, Josh; Dugan, Joanne Bechta
2008-01-01
Dependability-critical systems, such as digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants, necessitate engineering techniques and tools to provide assurances of their safety and reliability. Determining system reliability at the architectural design phase is important since it may guide design decisions and provide crucial information for trade-off analysis and estimating system cost. Despite this, reliability and system engineering remain separate disciplines and engineering processes by which the dependability analysis results may not represent the designed system. In this article we provide an overview and application of our approach to build architecture-based, dynamic system models for dependability-critical systems and then automatically generate Dynamic Fault Trees (DFT) for comprehensive, toolsupported reliability analysis. Specifically, we use the Architectural Analysis and Design Language (AADL) to model the structural, behavioral and failure aspects of the system in a composite architecture model. From the AADL model, we seek to derive the DFT(s) and use Galileo's automated reliability analyses to estimate system reliability. This approach alleviates the dependability engineering - systems engineering knowledge expertise gap, integrates the dependability and system engineering design and development processes and enables a more formal, automated and consistent DFT construction. We illustrate this work using an example based on a dynamic digital feed-water control system for a nuclear reactor
Mukhtar, Hussnain; Lin, Yu-Pin; Shipin, Oleg V; Petway, Joy R
2017-07-12
This study presents an approach for obtaining realization sets of parameters for nitrogen removal in a pilot-scale waste stabilization pond (WSP) system. The proposed approach was designed for optimal parameterization, local sensitivity analysis, and global uncertainty analysis of a dynamic simulation model for the WSP by using the R software package Flexible Modeling Environment (R-FME) with the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method. Additionally, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) was integrated into the FME to evaluate the major parameters that affect the simulation outputs in the study WSP. Comprehensive modeling analysis was used to simulate and assess nine parameters and concentrations of ON-N, NH₃-N and NO₃-N. Results indicate that the integrated FME-GLUE-based model, with good Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (0.53-0.69) and correlation coefficients (0.76-0.83), successfully simulates the concentrations of ON-N, NH₃-N and NO₃-N. Moreover, the Arrhenius constant was the only parameter sensitive to model performances of ON-N and NH₃-N simulations. However, Nitrosomonas growth rate, the denitrification constant, and the maximum growth rate at 20 °C were sensitive to ON-N and NO₃-N simulation, which was measured using global sensitivity.
Dynamic modelling of micropollutants in the integrated urban wastewater system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lindblom, Erik Ulfson
hovedemne. Ved integreret modellering af stofferne pyren, der typisk findes i afstrømmet regnvand, og bisphenol-A, der forekommer ofte i spildevand, illustreres det at en forenklet konceptuel model kan bidrage til at øge procesforståelsen samt til at udvikle moniteringsprogrammer og emissions kontrol......-80% af middelværdien. Endelig diskuteres tilføjelser af specifikke processer til eksisterende aktiv slam modeller, og en Monod vækst- og nedbrydningsmodel baseret på et enkelt substrat er udviklet og anvendt til at beskrive nedbrydning af det østrogene stof bisphenol-A i et pilotskala renseanlæg...
On the dynamics of chain systems. [applications in manipulator and human body models
Huston, R. L.; Passerello, C. E.
1974-01-01
A computer-oriented method for obtaining dynamical equations of motion for chain systems is presented. A chain system is defined as an arbitrarily assembled set of rigid bodies such that adjoining bodies have at least one common point and such that closed loops are not formed. The equations of motion are developed through the use of Lagrange's form of d'Alembert's principle. The method and procedure is illustrated with an elementary study of a tripod space manipulator. The method is designed for application with systems such as human body models, chains and cables, and dynamic finite-segment models.
Kulkov, V. M.; Medvedskii, A. L.; Terentyev, V. V.; Firsyuk, S. O.; Shemyakov, A. O.
2017-12-01
The problem of spacecraft attitude control using electromagnetic systems interacting with the Earth's magnetic field is considered. A set of dimensionless parameters has been formed to investigate the spacecraft orientation regimes based on dynamically similar models. The results of experimental studies of small spacecraft with a magnetic attitude control system can be extrapolated to the in-orbit spacecraft motion control regimes by using the methods of the dimensional and similarity theory.
The importance of correct specification of tribological parameters in dynamical systems modelling
Alaci, S.; Ciornei, F. C.; Romanu, I. C.; Ciornei, M. C.
2018-01-01
When modelling the behaviour of dynamical systems, the friction phenomenon cannot be neglected. Dry and fluid friction may occur, but dry friction has more severe effects upon the behaviour of the systems, based on the fact that the introduced discontinuities are more important. In the modelling of dynamical systems, dry friction is the main cause of occurrence of the bifurcation phenomenon. These aspects become more complex if, in the case of dry friction, static and dynamic frictions are put forward. The behaviour of a simple dynamical system is studied, consisting in a prismatic body linked to the ground by a spring, placed on a conveyor belt. The theoretical model is described by a nonlinear differential equation which after numerical integration leads to the conclusion that the steady motion of the prism is an un-damped oscillatory motion. The system was qualitatively modelled using specialised software for dynamical analysis. It was impractical to obtain a steady uniform translational motion of a rigid, therefore the conveyor belt was replaced by a metallic disc in uniform rotation motion. The attempts to compare the CAD model to the theoretical model were unsuccessful because the efforts of selecting the tribological parameters directed to the conclusion that the motion of the prism is a damped oscillation. To decide which of the methods depicts reality, a test-rig was assembled and it indicated a sustained oscillation. The conclusion is that the model employed by the dynamical analysis software cannot describe the actual model and a more complex model is required in the description of the friction phenomenon.
Modeling and Dynamic Analysis of Cutterhead Driving System in Tunnel Boring Machine
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wei Sun
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Failure of cutterhead driving system (CDS of tunnel boring machine (TBM often occurs under shock and vibration conditions. To investigate the dynamic characteristics and reduce system vibration further, an electromechanical coupling model of CDS is established which includes the model of direct torque control (DTC system for three-phase asynchronous motor and purely torsional dynamic model of multistage gear transmission system. The proposed DTC model can provide driving torque just as the practical inverter motor operates so that the influence of motor operating behavior will not be erroneously estimated. Moreover, nonlinear gear meshing factors, such as time-variant mesh stiffness and transmission error, are involved in the dynamic model. Based on the established nonlinear model of CDS, vibration modes can be classified into three types, that is, rigid motion mode, rotational vibration mode, and planet vibration mode. Moreover, dynamic responses under actual driving torque and idealized equivalent torque are compared, which reveals that the ripple of actual driving torque would aggravate vibration of gear transmission system. Influence index of torque ripple is proposed to show that vibration of system increases with torque ripple. This study provides useful guideline for antivibration design and motor control of CDS in TBM.
Dynamic modelling of nitrous oxide emissions from three Swedish sludge liquor treatment systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lindblom, E.; Arnell, M.; Flores-Alsina, X.
2016-01-01
The objective of this paper is to model the dynamics and validate the results of nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from three Swedish nitrifying/denitrifying, nitritation and anammox systems treating real anaerobic digester sludge liquor. The Activated Sludge Model No. 1 is extended to describe N2O...
Yaroslavsky, Leonid P.
1996-11-01
We show that one can treat pseudo-random generators, evolutionary models of texture images, iterative local adaptive filters for image restoration and enhancement and growth models in biology and material sciences in a unified way as special cases of dynamic systems with a nonlinear feedback.
Toward a Comprehensive Model of Antisocial Development: A Dynamic Systems Approach
Granic, Isabela; Patterson, Gerald R.
2006-01-01
The purpose of this article is to develop a preliminary comprehensive model of antisocial development based on dynamic systems principles. The model is built on the foundations of behavioral research on coercion theory. First, the authors focus on the principles of multistability, feedback, and nonlinear causality to reconceptualize real-time…
Tarasenko, Larissa V.; Ougolnitsky, Guennady A.; Usov, Anatoly B.; Vaskov, Maksim A.; Kirik, Vladimir A.; Astoyanz, Margarita S.; Angel, Olga Y.
2016-01-01
A dynamic game theoretic model of concordance of interests in the process of social partnership in the system of continuing professional education is proposed. Non-cooperative, cooperative, and hierarchical setups are examined. Analytical solution for a linear state version of the model is provided. Nash equilibrium algorithms (for non-cooperative…
South African energy model: a system dynamics approach
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Musango, JK
2009-07-01
Full Text Available of electricity, coal, oil, and natural gas in the sector. The model was used to examine a set of policies that the South African government is currently considering, e.g. expansion of nuclear energy production and implementation of more stringent energy...
System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Ivona Milić Beran
2015-10-01
Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.
Chang, Angela Y; Ogbuoji, Osondu; Atun, Rifat; Verguet, Stéphane
2017-12-01
Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is one of the targets for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3. The impetus for UHC has led to an increased demand for time-sensitive tools to enhance our knowledge of how health systems function and to evaluate impact of system interventions. We define the field of "health system modeling" (HSM) as an area of research where dynamic mathematical models can be designed in order to describe, predict, and quantitatively capture the functioning of health systems. HSM can be used to explore the dynamic relationships among different system components, including organizational design, financing and other resources (such as investments in resources and supply chain management systems) - what we call "inputs" - on access, coverage, and quality of care - what we call "outputs", toward improved health system "outcomes", namely increased levels and fairer distributions of population health and financial risk protection. We undertook a systematic review to identify the existing approaches used in HSM. We identified "systems thinking" - a conceptual and qualitative description of the critical interactions within a health system - as an important underlying precursor to HSM, and collated a critical collection of such articles. We then reviewed and categorized articles from two schools of thoughts: "system dynamics" (SD)" and "susceptible-infected-recovered-plus" (SIR+). SD emphasizes the notion of accumulations of stocks in the system, inflows and outflows, and causal feedback structure to predict intended and unintended consequences of policy interventions. The SIR + models link a typical disease transmission model with another that captures certain aspects of the system that impact the outcomes of the main model. These existing methods provide critical insights in informing the design of HSM, and provide a departure point to extend this research agenda. We highlight the opportunity to advance modeling methods to further understand
Dynamic Model of Kaplan Turbine Regulating System Suitable for Power System Analysis
Zhao, Jie; Wang, Li; Liu, Dichen; Wang, Jun; Zhao, Yu; Liu, Tian; Wang, Haoyu
2015-01-01
Accurate modeling of Kaplan turbine regulating system is of great significance for grid security and stability analysis. In this paper, Kaplan turbine regulating system model is divided into the governor system model, the blade control system model, and the turbine and water diversion system model. The Kaplan turbine has its particularity, and the on-cam relationship between the wicket gate opening and the runner blade angle under a certain water head on the whole range was obtained by high-o...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fathabadi, Hassan
2015-01-01
Highlights: • Novel technique to completely eliminate the harmful harmonics of fuel cell system. • Presenting a novel high accurate detailed electrochemical dynamic model of fuel cells. • Back-up battery system to compensate the slow dynamic response of fuel cell system. • Exact analysis of real electrochemical reactions occurring inside fuel cells. - Abstract: In this study, a novel dynamic model of fuel cells is presented. High accurate static and dynamic responses of the proposed model are experimentally validated by comparing simulated results with real experimental data. The obtained model together with theoretical results shows that a fuel cell or a fuel cell stack has very slow dynamic response, so that, it cannot adapt itself to the fast variations in load demand. It is shown that for adapting well a fuel cell stack to the load demand, the stack should be equipped with a proposed back-up battery system which compensates the slow dynamic response of the stack by providing a bidirectional path to transmit/absorb the extra instant power. It is proved that the conventional switching waveforms used in the converters of the stacks and back-up systems produce an enormous amount of harmful harmonics. Then, a novel technique is proposed to completely eliminate main harmful harmonics. It is worthwhile to note that all the other techniques only reduce the harmful harmonics. Simulated results verify that the back-up battery system together with applying the proposed technique provide a fast dynamic response for the fuel cell/back-up battery system, and also completely eliminate the main harmful harmonics
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Tahavori, Maryamsadat; Shaker, Hamid Reza
A method for model reduction of dynamical systems with the second order structure is proposed in this paper. The proposed technique preserves the second order structure of the system, and also preserves the stability of the original systems. The method uses the controllability and observability...... gramians within the time interval to build the appropriate Petrov-Galerkin projection for dynamical systems within the time interval of interest. The bound on approximation error is also derived. The numerical results are compared with the counterparts from other techniques. The results confirm...
Liu, Xiangdong; Li, Qingze; Pan, Jianxin
2018-06-01
Modern medical studies show that chemotherapy can help most cancer patients, especially for those diagnosed early, to stabilize their disease conditions from months to years, which means the population of tumor cells remained nearly unchanged in quite a long time after fighting against immune system and drugs. In order to better understand the dynamics of tumor-immune responses under chemotherapy, deterministic and stochastic differential equation models are constructed to characterize the dynamical change of tumor cells and immune cells in this paper. The basic dynamical properties, such as boundedness, existence and stability of equilibrium points, are investigated in the deterministic model. Extended stochastic models include stochastic differential equations (SDEs) model and continuous-time Markov chain (CTMC) model, which accounts for the variability in cellular reproduction, growth and death, interspecific competitions, and immune response to chemotherapy. The CTMC model is harnessed to estimate the extinction probability of tumor cells. Numerical simulations are performed, which confirms the obtained theoretical results.
Dynamic Modeling of Process Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems
Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin; Anderson, Molly
2011-01-01
Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents dynamic simulations of chemical process for primary processor technologies including: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system, the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD), and post-distillation water polishing processes such as the Volatiles Removal Assembly (VRA) that were developed using the Aspen Custom Modeler and Aspen Plus process simulation tools. The results expand upon previous work for water recovery technology models and emphasize dynamic process modeling and results. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and model results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and available test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.
Dynamic modeling and explicit/multi-parametric MPC control of pressure swing adsorption systems
Khajuria, Harish
2011-01-01
Pressure swing adsorption (PSA) is a flexible, albeit complex gas separation system. Due to its inherent nonlinear nature and discontinuous operation, the design of a model based PSA controller, especially with varying operating conditions, is a challenging task. This work focuses on the design of an explicit/multi-parametric model predictive controller for a PSA system. Based on a system involving four adsorbent beds separating 70% H2, 30% CH4 mixture into high purity hydrogen, the key controller objective is to fast track H2 purity to a set point value of 99.99%. To perform this task, a rigorous and systematic framework is employed. First, a high fidelity detailed dynamic model is built to represent the system\\'s real operation, and understand its dynamic behavior. The model is then used to derive appropriate linear models by applying suitable system identification techniques. For the reduced models, a model predictive control (MPC) step is formulated, where latest developments in multi-parametric programming and control are applied to derive a novel explicit MPC controller. To test the performance of the designed controller, closed loop simulations are performed where the dynamic model is used as the virtual plant. Comparison studies of the derived explicit MPC controller are also performed with conventional PID controllers. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Delayed feedback on the dynamical model of a financial system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Son, Woo-Sik; Park, Young-Jai
2011-01-01
Research highlights: → Effect of delayed feedbacks on the financial model. → Proof on the occurrence of Hopf bifurcation by local stability analysis. → Numerical bifurcation analysis on delay differential equations. → Observation of supercritical and subcritical Hopf, fold limit cycle, Neimark-Sacker, double Hopf and generalized Hopf bifurcations. - Abstract: We investigate the effect of delayed feedbacks on the financial model, which describes the time variation of the interest rate, the investment demand, and the price index, for establishing the fiscal policy. By local stability analysis, we theoretically prove the occurrences of Hopf bifurcation. Through numerical bifurcation analysis, we obtain the supercritical and subcritical Hopf bifurcation curves which support the theoretical predictions. Moreover, the fold limit cycle and Neimark-Sacker bifurcation curves are detected. We also confirm that the double Hopf and generalized Hopf codimension-2 bifurcation points exist.
A Structural Reliability Business Process Modelling with System Dynamics Simulation
Lam, C. Y.; Chan, S. L.; Ip, W. H.
2010-01-01
Business activity flow analysis enables organizations to manage structured business processes, and can thus help them to improve performance. The six types of business activities identified here (i.e., SOA, SEA, MEA, SPA, MSA and FIA) are correlated and interact with one another, and the decisions from any business activity form feedback loops with previous and succeeding activities, thus allowing the business process to be modelled and simulated. For instance, for any company that is eager t...
System dynamics model of Hubbert Peak for China's oil
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Tao Zaipu; Li Mingyu
2007-01-01
American geophysicist M. King Hubbert in 1956 first introduced a logistic equation to estimate the peak and lifetime production for oil of USA. Since then, a fierce debate ensued on the so-called Hubbert Peak, including also its methodology. This paper proposes to use the generic STELLA model to simulate Hubbert Peak, particularly for the Chinese oil production. This model is demonstrated as being robust. We used three scenarios to estimate the Chinese oil peak: according to scenario 1 of this model, the Hubbert Peak for China's crude oil production appears to be in 2019 with a value of 199.5 million tonnes, which is about 1.1 times the 2005 output. Before the peak comes, Chinese oil output will grow by about 1-2% annually, after the peak, however, the output will fall. By 2040, the annual production of Chinese crude oil would be equivalent to the level of 1990. During the coming 20 years, the crude oil demand of China will probably grow at the rate of 2-3% annually, and the gap between domestic supply and total demand may be more than half of this demand
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Luo, Yongqiang; Zhang, Ling; Liu, Zhongbing; Wang, Yingzi; Wu, Jing; Wang, Xiliang
2016-01-01
Highlights: • Dynamic model of thermoelectric radiant panel system is established. • The internal parameters of thermoelectric module are dynamically calculated in simulation. • Both artificial neural networks model and system model are verified through experiment data. • Optimized system structure is obtained through parametric study. - Abstract: Radiant panel system can optimize indoor thermal comfort with lower energy consumption. The thermoelectric radiant panel (TERP) system is a new and effective prototype of radiant system using thermoelectric module (TEM) instead of conventional water pipes, as heat source. The TERP can realize more stable and easier system control as well as lower initial and operative cost. In this study, an improved system dynamic model was established by combining analytical system model and artificial neural networks (ANN) as well as the dynamic calculation functions of internal parameters of TEM. The double integral was used for the calculation of surface average temperature of TERP. The ANN model and system model were in good agreement with experiment data in both cooling and heating mode. In order to optimize the system design structure, parametric study was conducted in terms of the thickness of aluminum panel and insulation, as well as the arrangement of TEMs on the surface of radiant panel. It was found through simulation results that the optimum thickness of aluminum panel and insulation are respectively around 1–2 mm and 40–50 mm. In addition, TEMs should be uniformly installed on the surface of radiant panel and each TEM should stand at the central position of a square-shaped typical region with length around 0.387–0.548 m.
System dynamics modeling of the impact of Internet-of-Things on intelligent urban transportation
Marshall, Phil
2015-01-01
Urban transportation systems are at the cusp of a major transformation that capitalizes on the proliferation of the Internet-of-Things (IoT), autonomous and cooperative vehicular and intelligent roadway technologies, advanced traffic management systems, and big data analytics. The benefits of these smart-transportation technologies were investigated using System Dynamics modeling, with particular emphasis towards vehicle sharing, intelligent highway systems, and smart-parking solutions. The m...
Learning Latent Variable and Predictive Models of Dynamical Systems
2009-10-01
Huijbregts. The ICSI RT07s Speaker Diarization System. Springer-Verlag, 2008. 4.5 [57] Gal Elidan and Nir Friedman. Learning the dimensionality of hidden...13, 435 and a test set of size 1, 771. VOWEL: This data set consists of multiple utterances of a particular Japanese vowel by nine male speakers . We...classification based on cultural style [51]; audio diarization , i.e., extraction of speech segments in long audio signals from background sounds [52]; audio
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Yu-Feng; Muhammad, Iqbal; Yue Chao
2017-01-01
We extend two known dynamical systems obtained by Blaszak, et al. via choosing Casimir functions and utilizing Novikov–Lax equation so that a series of novel dynamical systems including generalized Burgers dynamical system, heat equation, and so on, are followed to be generated. Then we expand some differential operators presented in the paper to deduce two types of expanding dynamical models. By taking the generalized Burgers dynamical system as an example, we deform its expanding model to get a half-expanding system, whose recurrence operator is derived from Lax representation, and its Hamiltonian structure is also obtained by adopting a new way. Finally, we expand the generalized Burgers dynamical system to the (2+1)-dimensional case whose Hamiltonian structure is derived by Poisson tensor and gradient of the Casimir function. Besides, a kind of (2+1)-dimensional expanding dynamical model of the (2+1)-dimensional dynamical system is generated as well. (paper)
Performance metric optimization advocates CPFR in supply chains: A system dynamics model based study
Balaji Janamanchi; James R. Burns
2016-01-01
Background: Supply Chain partners often find themselves in rather helpless positions, unable to improve their firm’s performance and profitability because their partners although willing to share production information do not fully collaborate in tackling customer order variations as they don’t seem to appreciate the benefits of such collaboration. Methods: We use a two-player (supplier-manufacturer) System Dynamics model to study the dynamics to assess the impact and usefulness of supply cha...
Merrill, Jacqueline A; Deegan, Michael; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Fredericks, Kimberly
2013-06-01
To evaluate the complex dynamics involved in implementing electronic health information exchange (HIE) for public health reporting at a state health department, and to identify policy implications to inform similar implementations. Qualitative data were collected over 8 months from seven experts at New York State Department of Health who implemented web services and protocols for querying, receipt, and validation of electronic data supplied by regional health information organizations. Extensive project documentation was also collected. During group meetings experts described the implementation process and created reference modes and causal diagrams that the evaluation team used to build a preliminary model. System dynamics modeling techniques were applied iteratively to build causal loop diagrams representing the implementation. The diagrams were validated iteratively by individual experts followed by group review online, and through confirmatory review of documents and artifacts. Three casual loop diagrams captured well-recognized system dynamics: Sliding Goals, Project Rework, and Maturity of Resources. The findings were associated with specific policies that address funding, leadership, ensuring expertise, planning for rework, communication, and timeline management. This evaluation illustrates the value of a qualitative approach to system dynamics modeling. As a tool for strategic thinking on complicated and intense processes, qualitative models can be produced with fewer resources than a full simulation, yet still provide insights that are timely and relevant. System dynamics techniques clarified endogenous and exogenous factors at play in a highly complex technology implementation, which may inform other states engaged in implementing HIE supported by federal Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) legislation.
Modelling temperature dynamics of a district heating system in Naestved, Denmark-A case study
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Gabrielaitiene, Irina; Bohm, Benny; Sunden, Bengt
2007-01-01
Modelling the temperature dynamics of a district heating system is typically validated for a single pipe or a system with limited information about dynamic consumer behaviour. In the present work, time dependent consumer data from the Naestved district heating system was used to investigate the ability of modelling tools to represent the temperature profile distortion throughout an entire heating system network. The Naestved district heating subsystem was modelled by two approaches (the node method developed at the Technical University of Denmark and the software TERMIS), and these modelling results were compared with measured data. The results indicate that the discrepancies between the predicted and measured temperatures are pronounced for consumers located in pipelines at distant pipelines containing numerous bends and fittings. Additionally, it was found that representing the consumer behaviour on an annual average basis introduced a deviation between the predicted and the measured return temperatures at the heat source
Development of a dynamic model for a DX VAV air conditioning system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Chen Wu; Deng Shiming
2006-01-01
A direct expansion (DX) variable air volume (VAV) air conditioning (A/C) system consists of a VAV air distribution subsystem and a DX refrigeration plant. This paper reports on the development of a representative and complete dynamic mathematical model for the DX VAV A/C system having a variable speed compressor and pressure independent VAV terminals. The model is component based and takes into account the dynamic behaviors of both the DX refrigeration plant and the VAV air distribution subsystem simultaneously. The dynamic model has been developed based on the principles of mass and energy conservation and using correlations describing the operational performance of some of the system's components, which are either field tested or available from manufacturers. An experimental rig has been set up for the DX VAV A/C system, and experimental work has been conducted to obtain the system's responses to the step change of compressor speed. The dynamic model developed was then validated using the experimental data obtained. Steady state and transient responses for five major operating parameters obtained from both the model and the experiment were compared and found to be in good agreement
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kathryn J. Draeger
2010-08-01
Full Text Available Both scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling emphasize the dynamic and uncontrollable nature of complex socio-ecological systems, and the significance of multiple feedback mechanisms. These two methodologies complement one another, but are rarely used together. We partnered with regional organizations in Minnesota to design a future visioning process that incorporated both scenarios and participatory system dynamics modeling. The three purposes of this exercise were: first, to assist regional leaders in making strategic decisions that would make their communities sustainable; second, to identify research gaps that could impede the ability of regional and state groups to plan for the future; and finally, to introduce more systems thinking into planning and policy-making around environmental issues. We found that scenarios and modeling complemented one another, and that both techniques allowed regional groups to focus on the sustainability of fundamental support systems (energy, food, and water supply. The process introduced some creative tensions between imaginative scenario visioning and quantitative system dynamics modeling, and between creating desired futures (a strong cultural norm and inhabiting the future (a premise of the Minnesota 2050 exercise. We suggest that these tensions can stimulate more agile, strategic thinking about the future.
A quantitative dynamic systems model of health-related quality of life among older adults
Roppolo, Mattia; Kunnen, E Saskia; van Geert, Paul L; Mulasso, Anna; Rabaglietti, Emanuela
2015-01-01
Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a person-centered concept. The analysis of HRQOL is highly relevant in the aged population, which is generally suffering from health decline. Starting from a conceptual dynamic systems model that describes the development of HRQOL in individuals over time, this study aims to develop and test a quantitative dynamic systems model, in order to reveal the possible dynamic trends of HRQOL among older adults. The model is tested in different ways: first, with a calibration procedure to test whether the model produces theoretically plausible results, and second, with a preliminary validation procedure using empirical data of 194 older adults. This first validation tested the prediction that given a particular starting point (first empirical data point), the model will generate dynamic trajectories that lead to the observed endpoint (second empirical data point). The analyses reveal that the quantitative model produces theoretically plausible trajectories, thus providing support for the calibration procedure. Furthermore, the analyses of validation show a good fit between empirical and simulated data. In fact, no differences were found in the comparison between empirical and simulated final data for the same subgroup of participants, whereas the comparison between different subgroups of people resulted in significant differences. These data provide an initial basis of evidence for the dynamic nature of HRQOL during the aging process. Therefore, these data may give new theoretical and applied insights into the study of HRQOL and its development with time in the aging population. PMID:26604722
Dynamic modelling of nitrous oxide emissions from three Swedish sludge liquor treatment systems
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Lindblom, E.; Arnell, M.; Flores-Alsina, X.
2014-01-01
The objective of this paper is to model the dynamics and validate the results of nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from three Swedish nitrifying/denitrifying, nitritation and anammox systems treating real anaerobic digester sludge liquor. The Activated Sludge Model No. 1 is extended to describe N2O...... production by both heterotrophic and autotrophic denitrification. In addition, mass transfer equations are implemented to characterize the dynamics of N2O in the water and the gas phases.The biochemical model is simulated and validated for two hydraulic patterns: (1) a sequencing batch reactor; and, (2...
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kim, Seong Il; Choi, Sang Min; Yang, Jong In [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2016-12-15
Dynamic performance simulation of a CFB boiler in a commercial-scale power plant is reported. The boiler system was modeled by a finite number of heat exchanger units, which are sub-grouped into the gas-solid circulation loop, the water-steam circulation loop, and the inter-connected heat exchangers blocks of the boiler. This dynamic model is an extension from the previously reported performance simulation model, which was designed to simulate static performance of the same power plant, where heat and mass for each of the heat exchanger units were balanced for the inter-connected heat exchanger network among the fuel combustion system and the water-steam system. Dynamic performance simulation was achieved by calculating the incremental difference from the previous time step, and progressing for the next time step. Additional discretization of the heat exchanger blocks was necessary to accommodate the dynamic response of the water evaporation and natural circulation as well as the transient response of the metal temperature of the heat exchanger elements. Presentation of the simulation modeling is organized into two parts; system configuration of the model plant and the general approach of the simulation are presented along with the transient behavior of the sub-models in Part I. Dynamic sub-models were integrated in terms of the mass flow and the heat transfer for simulating the CFB boiler system. Dynamic simulation for the open loop response was performed to check the integrated system of the water-steam loop and the solid-gas loop of the total boiler system. Simulation of the total boiler system which includes the closed-loop control system blocks is presented in the following Part II.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kim, Seong Il; Choi, Sang Min; Yang, Jong In
2016-01-01
Dynamic performance simulation of a CFB boiler in a commercial-scale power plant is reported. The boiler system was modeled by a finite number of heat exchanger units, which are sub-grouped into the gas-solid circulation loop, the water-steam circulation loop, and the inter-connected heat exchangers blocks of the boiler. This dynamic model is an extension from the previously reported performance simulation model, which was designed to simulate static performance of the same power plant, where heat and mass for each of the heat exchanger units were balanced for the inter-connected heat exchanger network among the fuel combustion system and the water-steam system. Dynamic performance simulation was achieved by calculating the incremental difference from the previous time step, and progressing for the next time step. Additional discretization of the heat exchanger blocks was necessary to accommodate the dynamic response of the water evaporation and natural circulation as well as the transient response of the metal temperature of the heat exchanger elements. Presentation of the simulation modeling is organized into two parts; system configuration of the model plant and the general approach of the simulation are presented along with the transient behavior of the sub-models in Part I. Dynamic sub-models were integrated in terms of the mass flow and the heat transfer for simulating the CFB boiler system. Dynamic simulation for the open loop response was performed to check the integrated system of the water-steam loop and the solid-gas loop of the total boiler system. Simulation of the total boiler system which includes the closed-loop control system blocks is presented in the following Part II
Dynamic Modelling of a Knowledge Management System Evolution for a Technological Corporation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Pershukov, V.; Belenkaya, N.; Sheveleva, S.; Kuptsov, I.; Andrianov, A.; Fesenko, G.
2016-01-01
Full text: The paper describes a dynamic mathematical model of a knowledge management system for a technological corporation. The model consists of three equations for generalized variables which characterize the human capacity, accumulated knowledge and profits interrelated by means of the Cobb–Douglas production function. The presented model is intended to simulate the system evolution over time including identification of possible catastrophic behavior of the system and can be used to solve various problems of forecasting the development of knowledge management systems in technological corporations, and assess the effectiveness of organizational measures aimed at improving the system efficiency. Using this model, it is possible to simulate the system evolution over time and conduct scenario research in the changing internal and external conditions as well as select the optimal system parameters in order to achieve certain goals and formulate requirements for the system components. The authors present the results of applying this model in simulating the dynamics of the knowledge management system development in a technological corporation and discuss some methodological issues related to the mathematical modeling of processes and models of knowledge management. (author
Homayounfar, Mehran; Zomorodian, Mehdi; Martinez, Christopher J; Lai, Sai Hin
2015-01-01
So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i) having a discrete nature; and (ii) working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance) of the state variable (water level in the reservoir) is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP), and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG). By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in water allocation
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Mehran Homayounfar
Full Text Available So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i having a discrete nature; and (ii working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance of the state variable (water level in the reservoir is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP, and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG. By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in
Apostolopoulos, Yorghos; Lemke, Michael K; Barry, Adam E; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller
2018-02-01
Given the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling; (2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research; and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. System dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational properties-stocks, flows and feedbacks-capture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches; in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. The process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques; (2) model formulation; (3) model calibration; (4) model testing and validation; and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. Community-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.
Dynamical Models of the Solar System Formation and Evolution
Stewart, Glen R.
2002-01-01
synodic periods and the final state is typically reached in 10 to 20 synodic periods. These studies move us closer to understanding the significantly more complex system of Saturn's F ring, where the perturbation magnitude varies over short temporal and spatial time scales due to the orbital eccentricities of the perturbing satellite. We are currently extending the simulation to allow for an eccentric orbit of the satellite.
Kwasniok, Frank
2013-11-01
A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.
Local difference measures between complex networks for dynamical system model evaluation.
Lange, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F; Volkholz, Jan; Kurths, Jürgen
2015-01-01
A faithful modeling of real-world dynamical systems necessitates model evaluation. A recent promising methodological approach to this problem has been based on complex networks, which in turn have proven useful for the characterization of dynamical systems. In this context, we introduce three local network difference measures and demonstrate their capabilities in the field of climate modeling, where these measures facilitate a spatially explicit model evaluation.Building on a recent study by Feldhoff et al. [8] we comparatively analyze statistical and dynamical regional climate simulations of the South American monsoon system [corrected]. types of climate networks representing different aspects of rainfall dynamics are constructed from the modeled precipitation space-time series. Specifically, we define simple graphs based on positive as well as negative rank correlations between rainfall anomaly time series at different locations, and such based on spatial synchronizations of extreme rain events. An evaluation against respective networks built from daily satellite data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 reveals far greater differences in model performance between network types for a fixed but arbitrary climate model than between climate models for a fixed but arbitrary network type. We identify two sources of uncertainty in this respect. Firstly, climate variability limits fidelity, particularly in the case of the extreme event network; and secondly, larger geographical link lengths render link misplacements more likely, most notably in the case of the anticorrelation network; both contributions are quantified using suitable ensembles of surrogate networks. Our model evaluation approach is applicable to any multidimensional dynamical system and especially our simple graph difference measures are highly versatile as the graphs to be compared may be constructed in whatever way required. Generalizations to directed as well as edge- and node
Fluctuation-Response Relation and modeling in systems with fast and slow dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
G. Lacorata
2007-10-01
Full Text Available We show how a general formulation of the Fluctuation-Response Relation is able to describe in detail the connection between response properties to external perturbations and spontaneous fluctuations in systems with fast and slow variables. The method is tested by using the 360-variable Lorenz-96 model, where slow and fast variables are coupled to one another with reciprocal feedback, and a simplified low dimensional system. In the Fluctuation-Response context, the influence of the fast dynamics on the slow dynamics relies in a non trivial behavior of a suitable quadratic response function. This has important consequences for the modeling of the slow dynamics in terms of a Langevin equation: beyond a certain intrinsic time interval even the optimal model can give just statistical prediction.
Optically levitated nanoparticle as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics.
Ricci, F; Rica, R A; Spasenović, M; Gieseler, J; Rondin, L; Novotny, L; Quidant, R
2017-05-09
Nano-mechanical resonators have gained an increasing importance in nanotechnology owing to their contributions to both fundamental and applied science. Yet, their small dimensions and mass raises some challenges as their dynamics gets dominated by nonlinearities that degrade their performance, for instance in sensing applications. Here, we report on the precise control of the nonlinear and stochastic bistable dynamics of a levitated nanoparticle in high vacuum. We demonstrate how it can lead to efficient signal amplification schemes, including stochastic resonance. This work contributes to showing the use of levitated nanoparticles as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics, with applications to a wide variety of fields.
Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT
Hansen, A.D.; Jauch, C.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.
2004-01-01
The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create amodel database in different simulation tools. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The repo...
The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems
Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.
2011-01-01
The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.
A diagnostic expert system for a boiling water reactor using a dynamic model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sonoda, Y.; Kanemoto, S.; Imaruoka, H.
1990-01-01
A diagnostic expert system for abnormal disturbances in a BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) plant has been developed. The peculiar feature of this system is a diagnostic method which combines artificial intelligence technique with numerical analysis technique. The system has three diagnostic functions, 1) identification of anomaly position (device or sensor), 2) identification of anomaly mode and 3) identification of anomaly cause. Function 1) is implemented as follows. First, a hypothesis about anomaly propagation paths is built up by qualitative reasoning, using knowledge of causal relations among observed signals. Next, the abnormal device or sensor is found by applying model reference method and fuzzy set theory to test the hypothesis, using knowledge of plant structure and function, heuristic strategy of diagnosis and module type dynamic simulator. This simulator is composed of basic transfer function modules. The simulation model for the testing region is built up automatically, according to the requirement from the diagnostic task. Function 2) means identification of dynamic characteristics for an anomaly. It is realized by tuning model parameters so as to reproduce the abnormal signal behavior using the non-linear programing method. Function 3) derives probable anomaly causes from heuristic rules between anomaly mode and cause. A basic plant dynamic model was built up and adjusted to dynamic characteristics for one BWR plant (1100MWe). In order to verify the diagnostic functions of this system, data for several abnormal events was compiled by modifying this model. The diagnostic functions were proved useful, through the simulated abnormal data
Prediction of dynamics of bellows in exhaust system of vehicle using equivalent beam modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hong, Jin Ho; Kim, Yong Dae; Lee, Nam Young; Lee, Sang Woo [Noise and vibration CAE Team, Hyundai Motor Company, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)
2015-11-15
The exhaust system is one of the major sources of vibrations, along with the suspension system and engine. When the exhaust system is connected directly to the engine, it transfers vibrations to the vehicle body through the body mounts. Therefore, in order to reduce the vibrations transmitted from the exhaust system, the vibration characteristics of the exhaust system should be predicted. Thus, the dynamic characteristics of the bellows, which form a key component of the exhaust system, must be modeled accurately. However, it is difficult to model the bellows because of the complicated geometry. Though the equivalent beam modeling technique has been applied in the design stage, it is not sufficiently accurate in the case of the bellows which have complicated geometries. In this paper, we present an improved technique for modeling the bellows in a vehicle. The accuracy of the modeling method is verified by comparison with the experimental results.
Advanced High-Temperature Reactor Dynamic System Model Development: April 2012 Status
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Qualls, A L; Cetiner, M S; Wilson, Jr, T L
2012-04-30
The Advanced High-Temperature Reactor (AHTR) is a large-output fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR). An early-phase preconceptual design of a 1500 MW(e) power plant was developed in 2011 [Refs. 1 and 2]. An updated version of this plant is shown as Fig. 1. FHRs feature low-pressure liquid fluoride salt cooling, coated-particle fuel, a high-temperature power cycle, and fully passive decay heat rejection. The AHTR is designed to be a “walk away” reactor that requires no action to prevent large off-site releases following even severe reactor accidents. This report describes the development of dynamic system models used to further the AHTR design toward that goal. These models predict system response during warmup, startup, normal operation, and limited off-normal operating conditions. Severe accidents that include a loss-of-fluid inventory are not currently modeled. The scope of the models is limited to the plant power system, including the reactor, the primary and intermediate heat transport systems, the power conversion system, and safety-related or auxiliary heat removal systems. The primary coolant system, the intermediate heat transport system and the reactor building structure surrounding them are shown in Fig. 2. These systems are modeled in the most detail because the passive interaction of the primary system with the surrounding structure and heat removal systems, and ultimately the environment, protects the reactor fuel and the vessel from damage during severe reactor transients. The reactor silo also plays an important role during system warmup. The dynamic system modeling tools predict system performance and response. The goal is to accurately predict temperatures and pressures within the primary, intermediate, and power conversion systems and to study the impacts of design changes on those responses. The models are design tools and are not intended to be used in reactor qualification. The important details to capture in the primary
Analysing the uncertain future of copper with three exploratory system dynamics models
Auping, W.; Pruyt, E.; Kwakkel, J.H.
2012-01-01
High copper prices, the prospect of a transition to a more sustainable energy mix and increasing copper demands from emerging economies have not led to an in-creased attention to the base metal copper in mineral scarcity discussions. The copper system is well documented, but especially regarding the demand of copper many uncertainties exist. In order to create insight in this systems behaviour in the coming 40 years, an Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis study was performed. T...
Modeling Spring Mass System with System Dynamics Approach in Middle School Education
Nuhoglu, Hasret
2008-01-01
System Dynamics is a well formulated methodology for analyzing the components of a system including cause-effect relationships and their underlying mathematics and logic, time delays, and feedback loops. It began in the business and manufacturing world, but is now affecting education and many other disciplines. Having inspired by successful policy…
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xiangyong Chen
2014-01-01
hybrid dynamic systems is established based on Lanchester equation in a (n,1 battle, where a heterogeneous force of n different troop types faces a homogeneous force. This model can be characterized by the interaction of continuous-time models (governed by Lanchester equation, and discrete event systems (described by variable tactics. Furthermore, an expository discussion is presented on an optimal variable tactics control problem for warfare hybrid dynamic system. The optimal control strategies are designed based on dynamic programming and differential game theory. As an example of the consequences of this optimal control problem, we take the (2, 1 case and solve the optimal strategies in a (2, 1 case. Simulation results show the feasibility of warfare hybrid system model and the effectiveness of the optimal control strategies designed.
Data-Driven Modeling of Complex Systems by means of a Dynamical ANN
Seleznev, A.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E.; Feigin, A.
2017-12-01
The data-driven methods for modeling and prognosis of complex dynamical systems become more and more popular in various fields due to growth of high-resolution data. We distinguish the two basic steps in such an approach: (i) determining the phase subspace of the system, or embedding, from available time series and (ii) constructing an evolution operator acting in this reduced subspace. In this work we suggest a novel approach combining these two steps by means of construction of an artificial neural network (ANN) with special topology. The proposed ANN-based model, on the one hand, projects the data onto a low-dimensional manifold, and, on the other hand, models a dynamical system on this manifold. Actually, this is a recurrent multilayer ANN which has internal dynamics and capable of generating time series. Very important point of the proposed methodology is the optimization of the model allowing us to avoid overfitting: we use Bayesian criterion to optimize the ANN structure and estimate both the degree of evolution operator nonlinearity and the complexity of nonlinear manifold which the data are projected on. The proposed modeling technique will be applied to the analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems: Lorenz'96 model of atmospheric turbulence, producing high-dimensional space-time chaos, and quasi-geostrophic three-layer model of the Earth's atmosphere with the natural orography, describing the dynamics of synoptical vortexes as well as mesoscale blocking systems. The possibility of application of the proposed methodology to analyze real measured data is also discussed. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant #16-12-10198).
Dynamic modeling and optimal joint torque coordination of advanced robotic systems
Kang, Hee-Jun
The development is documented of an efficient dynamic modeling algorithm and the subsequent optimal joint input load coordination of advanced robotic systems for industrial application. A closed-form dynamic modeling algorithm for the general closed-chain robotic linkage systems is presented. The algorithm is based on the transfer of system dependence from a set of open chain Lagrangian coordinates to any desired system generalized coordinate set of the closed-chain. Three different techniques for evaluation of the kinematic closed chain constraints allow the representation of the dynamic modeling parameters in terms of system generalized coordinates and have no restriction with regard to kinematic redundancy. The total computational requirement of the closed-chain system model is largely dependent on the computation required for the dynamic model of an open kinematic chain. In order to improve computational efficiency, modification of an existing open-chain KIC based dynamic formulation is made by the introduction of the generalized augmented body concept. This algorithm allows a 44 pct. computational saving over the current optimized one (O(N4), 5995 when N = 6). As means of resolving redundancies in advanced robotic systems, local joint torque optimization is applied for effectively using actuator power while avoiding joint torque limits. The stability problem in local joint torque optimization schemes is eliminated by using fictitious dissipating forces which act in the necessary null space. The performance index representing the global torque norm is shown to be satisfactory. In addition, the resulting joint motion trajectory becomes conservative, after a transient stage, for repetitive cyclic end-effector trajectories. The effectiveness of the null space damping method is shown. The modular robot, which is built of well defined structural modules from a finite-size inventory and is controlled by one general computer system, is another class of evolving
Modeling the dynamic response of pressures in a distributed helium refrigeration system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Brubaker, John Carl [Illinois Inst. of Technology, Chicago, IL (United States)
1997-12-01
A mathematical model is created of the dynamic response of pressures caused by flow inputs to an existing distributed helium refrigeration system. The dynamic system studied consists of the suction and discharge pressure headers and compressor portions of the refrigeration system used to cool the superconducting magnets of the Tevatron accelerator at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The modeling method involves identifying the system from data recorded during a series of controlled tests, with effort made to detect locational differences in pressure response around the four mile accelerator circumference. A review of the fluid mechanics associated with the system indicates linear time invariant models are suitable for the identification, particularly since the governing equations of one dimensional fluid flow are approximated by linear differential equations. An outline of the experimental design and the data acquisition system are given, followed by a detailed description of the modeling, which utilized the Matlab programming language and associated System Identification Toolbox. Two representations of the system are presented. One, a black box model, provides a multi-input, multi-output description assembled from the results of single input step function testing. This description indicates definite variation in pressure response with distance from the flow input location, and also suggests subtle differences in response with the input location itself. A second system representation is proposed which details the relation between continuous flow changes and pressure response, and provides explanation of a previously unappreciated pressure feedback internal to the system.
Modeling the dynamic response of pressures in a distributed helium refrigeration system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brubaker, J.C.
1997-12-01
A mathematical model is created of the dynamic response of pressures caused by flow inputs to an existing distributed helium refrigeration system. The dynamic system studied consists of the suction and discharge pressure headers and compressor portions of the refrigeration system used to cool the superconducting magnets of the Tevatron accelerator at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The modeling method involves identifying the system from data recorded during a series of controlled tests, with effort made to detect locational differences in pressure response around the four mile accelerator circumference. A review of the fluid mechanics associated with the system indicates linear time invariant models are suitable for the identification, particularly since the governing equations of one dimensional fluid flow are approximated by linear differential equations. An outline of the experimental design and the data acquisition system are given, followed by a detailed description of the modeling, which utilized the Matlab programming language and associated System Identification Toolbox. Two representations of the system are presented. One, a black box model, provides a multi-input, multi-output description assembled from the results of single input step function testing. This description indicates definite variation in pressure response with distance from the flow input location, and also suggests subtle differences in response with the input location itself. A second system representation is proposed which details the relation between continuous flow changes and pressure response, and provides explanation of a previously unappreciated pressure feedback internal to the system
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Maluleke, George
2016-12-01
Full Text Available The contribution of mining activities to social infrastructure and human development is a complex socio-economic development issue in South Africa. Complexity theory has introduced a new approach to solving problems in social systems, recognising them as complex systems. The socio-economic development system in South Africa falls into this category of complex systems. Analysing such a system requires that a number of feedback loops and details about the issues be analysed simultaneously. This level of complexity is above a human’s ability to comprehend without the aid of tools such as systems thinking and system dynamics. The causality between investment in infrastructure capacity and socio-economic development is dynamic. The relationship is influenced by exogenous feedback that, if not managed, is likely to reverse itself. This paper presents the results of a system dynamics modelling of the relationship, based on the principle of relative attractiveness developed in previous system dynamics research. A Monte Carlo analysis is used to determine the sensitivity of the system to changes in feedback. The paper concludes that the limits to growth in a socio-economic environment are determined by more factors than the availability of capital, and also include land capacity constraints and skills shortage.
Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhong Yi Wan
Full Text Available The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more
Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.
Wan, Zhong Yi; Vlachas, Pantelis; Koumoutsakos, Petros; Sapsis, Themistoklis
2018-01-01
The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Trehan, Sumeet; Carlberg, Kevin T.; Durlofsky, Louis J.
2017-01-01
A machine learning–based framework for modeling the error introduced by surrogate models of parameterized dynamical systems is proposed. The framework entails the use of high-dimensional regression techniques (eg, random forests, and LASSO) to map a large set of inexpensively computed “error indicators” (ie, features) produced by the surrogate model at a given time instance to a prediction of the surrogate-model error in a quantity of interest (QoI). This eliminates the need for the user to hand-select a small number of informative features. The methodology requires a training set of parameter instances at which the time-dependent surrogate-model error is computed by simulating both the high-fidelity and surrogate models. Using these training data, the method first determines regression-model locality (via classification or clustering) and subsequently constructs a “local” regression model to predict the time-instantaneous error within each identified region of feature space. We consider 2 uses for the resulting error model: (1) as a correction to the surrogate-model QoI prediction at each time instance and (2) as a way to statistically model arbitrary functions of the time-dependent surrogate-model error (eg, time-integrated errors). We then apply the proposed framework to model errors in reduced-order models of nonlinear oil-water subsurface flow simulations, with time-varying well-control (bottom-hole pressure) parameters. The reduced-order models used in this work entail application of trajectory piecewise linearization in conjunction with proper orthogonal decomposition. Moreover, when the first use of the method is considered, numerical experiments demonstrate consistent improvement in accuracy in the time-instantaneous QoI prediction relative to the original surrogate model, across a large number of test cases. When the second use is considered, results show that the proposed method provides accurate statistical predictions of the time- and well
Dynamic modeling and sensitivity analysis of solar thermal energy conversion systems
Hamilton, C. L.
1977-01-01
Since the energy input to solar thermal conversion systems is both time variant and probabilistic, it is unlikely that simple steady-state methods for estimating lifetime performance will provide satisfactory results. The work described here uses dynamic modeling to begin identifying what must be known about input radiation and system dynamic characteristics to estimate performance reliably. Daily operation of two conceptual solar energy systems was simulated under varying operating strategies with time-dependent radiation intensity ranging from smooth input of several magnitudes to input of constant total energy whose intensity oscillated with periods from 1/4 hour to 6 hours. Integrated daily system output and efficiency were functions of both level and dynamic characteristics of insolation. Sensitivity of output to changes in total input was greater than one.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza
2013-01-01
In this work, a dynamic MATLAB Simulink model of a H3-350 Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell (RMFC) stand-alone battery charger produced by Serenergy is developed on the basis of theoretical and empirical methods. The advantage of RMFC systems is that they use liquid methanol as a fuel instead of gaseous...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...... an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Justesen, Kristian Kjær; Andreasen, Søren Juhl; Shaker, Hamid Reza
2014-01-01
In this work, a dynamic MATLAB Simulink model of a H3-350 Reformed Methanol Fuel Cell (RMFC) stand-alone battery charger produced by Serenergy is developed on the basis of theoretical and empirical methods. The advantage of RMFC systems is that they use liquid methanol as a fuel instead of gaseous...... of the reforming process are implemented. Models of the cooling flow of the blowers for the fuel cell and the burner which supplies process heat for the reformer are made. The two blowers have a common exhaust, which means that the two blowers influence each other’s output. The models take this into account using...... an empirical approach. Fin efficiency models for the cooling effect of the air are also developed using empirical methods. A fuel cell model is also implemented based on a standard model which is adapted to fit the measured performance of the H3-350 module. All the individual parts of the model are verified...
Novel Fuzzy-Modeling-Based Adaptive Synchronization of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Shih-Yu Li
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In this paper, a novel fuzzy-model-based adaptive synchronization scheme and its fuzzy update laws of parameters are proposed to address the adaptive synchronization problem. The proposed fuzzy controller does not share the same premise of fuzzy system, and the numbers of fuzzy controllers is reduced effectively through the novel modeling strategy. In addition, based on the adaptive synchronization scheme, the error dynamic system can be guaranteed to be asymptotically stable and the true values of unknown parameters can be obtained. Two identical complicated dynamic systems, Mathieu-Van der pol system (M-V system with uncertainties, are illustrated for numerical simulation example to show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed novel adaptive control strategy.
Overshoot in biological systems modelled by Markov chains: a non-equilibrium dynamic phenomenon.
Jia, Chen; Qian, Minping; Jiang, Daquan
2014-08-01
A number of biological systems can be modelled by Markov chains. Recently, there has been an increasing concern about when biological systems modelled by Markov chains will perform a dynamic phenomenon called overshoot. In this study, the authors found that the steady-state behaviour of the system will have a great effect on the occurrence of overshoot. They showed that overshoot in general cannot occur in systems that will finally approach an equilibrium steady state. They further classified overshoot into two types, named as simple overshoot and oscillating overshoot. They showed that except for extreme cases, oscillating overshoot will occur if the system is far from equilibrium. All these results clearly show that overshoot is a non-equilibrium dynamic phenomenon with energy consumption. In addition, the main result in this study is validated with real experimental data.
Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Majda, Andrew J
2013-08-20
A framework for low-order predictive statistical modeling and uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems is developed here. These reduced-order, modified quasilinear Gaussian (ROMQG) algorithms apply to turbulent dynamical systems in which there is significant linear instability or linear nonnormal dynamics in the unperturbed system and energy-conserving nonlinear interactions that transfer energy from the unstable modes to the stable modes where dissipation occurs, resulting in a statistical steady state; such turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in geophysical and engineering turbulence. The ROMQG method involves constructing a low-order, nonlinear, dynamical system for the mean and covariance statistics in the reduced subspace that has the unperturbed statistics as a stable fixed point and optimally incorporates the indirect effect of non-Gaussian third-order statistics for the unperturbed system in a systematic calibration stage. This calibration procedure is achieved through information involving only the mean and covariance statistics for the unperturbed equilibrium. The performance of the ROMQG algorithm is assessed on two stringent test cases: the 40-mode Lorenz 96 model mimicking midlatitude atmospheric turbulence and two-layer baroclinic models for high-latitude ocean turbulence with over 125,000 degrees of freedom. In the Lorenz 96 model, the ROMQG algorithm with just a single mode captures the transient response to random or deterministic forcing. For the baroclinic ocean turbulence models, the inexpensive ROMQG algorithm with 252 modes, less than 0.2% of the total, captures the nonlinear response of the energy, the heat flux, and even the one-dimensional energy and heat flux spectra.
A dynamic systems model of basic developmental mechanisms : Piaget, Vygotsky, and beyond
van Geert, P
1998-01-01
A dynamic systems model is proposed on the basis of a general developmental mechanism adopted from the theories of J. Piaget and L. S. Vygotsky, more particularly a mechanism based on the concepts assimilation versus accommodation and actual development versus zone of proximal development. In the
Winkel, Brian
2012-01-01
We give an example of cross coursing in which a subject or approach in one course in undergraduate mathematics is used in a completely different course. This situation crosses falling body modelling in an upper level differential equations course into a modest discrete dynamical systems unit of a first-year mathematics course. (Contains 1 figure.)
Experimental validation of a dynamic waste heat recovery system model for control purposes
Feru, E.; Kupper, F.; Rojer, C.; Seykens, X.L.J.; Scappin, F.; Willems, F.P.T.; Smits, Jeroen; Jager, de A.G.; Steinbuch, M.
2013-01-01
This paper presents the identification and validation of a dynamic Waste Heat Recovery (WHR) system model. Driven by upcoming CO2 emission targets and increasing fuel costs, engine exhaust gas heat utilization has recently attracted much attention to improve fuel efficiency, especially for
A system dynamic model to estimate hydrological processes and water use in a eucalypt plantation
Ying Ouyang; Daping Xu; Ted Leininger; Ningnan Zhang
2016-01-01
Eucalypts have been identified as one of the best feedstocks for bioenergy production due to theirfast-growth rate and coppicing ability. However, their water use efficiency along with the adverse envi-ronmental impacts is still a controversial issue. In this study, a system dynamic model was developed toestimate the hydrological processes and water use in a eucalyptus...
Research Summary 3-D Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) Model Of The Human Respiratory System
The U.S. EPA’s Office of Research and Development (ORD) has developed a 3-D computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the human respiratory system that allows for the simulation of particulate based contaminant deposition and clearance, while being adaptable for age, ethnicity,...
Lee, Chwee Beng
2010-01-01
This study examines the interactions between problem solving and conceptual change in an elementary science class where students build system dynamic models as a form of problem representations. Through mostly qualitative findings, we illustrate the interplay of three emerging intervening conditions (epistemological belief, structural knowledge…
Modelling dynamic liquid-gas systems: Extensions to the volume-of-fluid solver
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Heyns, Johan A
2013-06-01
Full Text Available This study presents the extension of the volume-of-fluid solver, interFoam, for improved accuracy and efficiency when modelling dynamic liquid-gas systems. Examples of these include the transportation of liquids, such as in the case of fuel carried...
Dynamic modeling and explicit/multi-parametric MPC control of pressure swing adsorption systems
Khajuria, Harish; Pistikopoulos, Efstratios N.
2011-01-01
objective is to fast track H2 purity to a set point value of 99.99%. To perform this task, a rigorous and systematic framework is employed. First, a high fidelity detailed dynamic model is built to represent the system's real operation, and understand its
Dynamics of biofilm formation in a model drinking water distribution system
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Boe-Hansen, Rasmus; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Arvin, Erik
2002-01-01
The dynamics of biofilm formation in non-chlorinated groundwater-based drinking water was studied in a model distribution system. The formation of biofilm was closely monitored for a period of 522 days by total bacterial counts (AODC), heterotrophic plate counts (R2A media), and ATP content...
CSIR Research Space (South Africa)
Brent, AC
2011-04-01
Full Text Available review of methods and tools applied in technology assessment. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 75, pp. 1396-1405, 2008. [13] Sterman, J.D., Business dynamics: systems thinking and modelling for a complex world. McGraw-Hill/Irwin, New York...
A TSK neuro-fuzzy approach for modeling highly dynamic systems
Acampora, G.
2011-01-01
This paper introduces a new type of TSK-based neuro-fuzzy approach and its application to modeling highly dynamic systems. In details, our proposal performs an adaptive supervised learning on a collection of time series in order to create a so-called Timed Automata Based Fuzzy Controller, i.e. an
Modelling the impact of interventions on the dynamics in village poultry systems
Udo, H.M.J.; Asgedom, A.H.; Viets, T.C.
2006-01-01
There are many technical possibilities to improve free-range and backyard poultry keeping. Rural households, however, are not adopting these technologies widely. This paper presents a model approach for ex ante evaluation of interventions in village poultry systems. The dynamic deterministic
A Systematic and Numerically Efficient Procedure for Stable Dynamic Model Inversion of LTI Systems
George, K.; Verhaegen, M.; Scherpen, J.M.A.
1999-01-01
Output tracking via the novel Stable Dynamic model Inversion (SDI) technique, applicable to non-minimum phase systems, and which naturally takes into account the presence of noise in target time histories, is considered here. We are motivated by the typical need to replicate time signals in the
Virtual Habitat -a dynamic simulation of closed life support systems -human model status
Markus Czupalla, M. Sc.; Zhukov, Anton; Hwang, Su-Au; Schnaitmann, Jonas
In order to optimize Life Support Systems on a system level, stability questions must be in-vestigated. To do so the exploration group of the Technical University of Munich (TUM) is developing the "Virtual Habitat" (V-HAB) dynamic LSS simulation software. V-HAB shall provide the possibility to conduct dynamic simulations of entire mission scenarios for any given LSS configuration. The Virtual Habitat simulation tool consists of four main modules: • Closed Environment Module (CEM) -monitoring of compounds in a closed environment • Crew Module (CM) -dynamic human simulation • P/C Systems Module (PCSM) -dynamic P/C subsystems • Plant Module (PM) -dynamic plant simulation The core module of the simulation is the dynamic and environment sensitive human module. Introduced in its basic version in 2008, the human module has been significantly updated since, increasing its capabilities and maturity significantly. In this paper three newly added human model subsystems (thermal regulation, digestion and schedule controller) are introduced touching also on the human stress subsystem which is cur-rently under development. Upon the introduction of these new subsystems, the integration of these into the overall V-HAB human model is discussed, highlighting the impact on the most important I/F. The overall human model capabilities shall further be summarized and presented based on meaningful test cases. In addition to the presentation of the results, the correlation strategy for the Virtual Habitat human model shall be introduced assessing the models current confidence level and giving an outlook on the future correlation strategy. Last but not least, the remaining V-HAB mod-ules shall be introduced shortly showing how the human model is integrated into the overall simulation.
Quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms on graphene. I. System-bath modeling.
Bonfanti, Matteo; Jackson, Bret; Hughes, Keith H; Burghardt, Irene; Martinazzo, Rocco
2015-09-28
An accurate system-bath model to investigate the quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms chemisorbed on graphene is presented. The system comprises a hydrogen atom and the carbon atom from graphene that forms the covalent bond, and it is described by a previously developed 4D potential energy surface based on density functional theory ab initio data. The bath describes the rest of the carbon lattice and is obtained from an empirical force field through inversion of a classical equilibrium correlation function describing the hydrogen motion. By construction, model building easily accommodates improvements coming from the use of higher level electronic structure theory for the system. Further, it is well suited to a determination of the system-environment coupling by means of ab initio molecular dynamics. This paper details the system-bath modeling and shows its application to the quantum dynamics of vibrational relaxation of a chemisorbed hydrogen atom, which is here investigated at T = 0 K with the help of the multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree method. Paper II deals with the sticking dynamics.
Quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms on graphene. I. System-bath modeling
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Bonfanti, Matteo, E-mail: matteo.bonfanti@unimi.it [Dipartimento di Chimica, Università degli Studi di Milano, v. Golgi 19, 20133 Milano (Italy); Jackson, Bret [Department of Chemistry, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States); Hughes, Keith H. [School of Chemistry, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd LL57 2UW (United Kingdom); Burghardt, Irene [Institute of Physical and Theoretical Chemistry, Goethe University Frankfurt, Max-von-Laue-Str. 7, 60438 Frankfurt/Main (Germany); Martinazzo, Rocco, E-mail: rocco.martinazzo@unimi.it [Dipartimento di Chimica, Università degli Studi di Milano, v. Golgi 19, 20133 Milano (Italy); Istituto di Scienze e Tecnologie Molecolari, Consiglio Nazionale delle Richerche, v. Golgi 19, 20133 Milano (Italy)
2015-09-28
An accurate system-bath model to investigate the quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms chemisorbed on graphene is presented. The system comprises a hydrogen atom and the carbon atom from graphene that forms the covalent bond, and it is described by a previously developed 4D potential energy surface based on density functional theory ab initio data. The bath describes the rest of the carbon lattice and is obtained from an empirical force field through inversion of a classical equilibrium correlation function describing the hydrogen motion. By construction, model building easily accommodates improvements coming from the use of higher level electronic structure theory for the system. Further, it is well suited to a determination of the system-environment coupling by means of ab initio molecular dynamics. This paper details the system-bath modeling and shows its application to the quantum dynamics of vibrational relaxation of a chemisorbed hydrogen atom, which is here investigated at T = 0 K with the help of the multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree method. Paper II deals with the sticking dynamics.
VanLehn, Kurt; Wetzel, Jon; Grover, Sachin; van de Sande, Brett
2017-01-01
Constructing models of dynamic systems is an important skill in both mathematics and science instruction. However, it has proved difficult to teach. Dragoon is an intelligent tutoring system intended to quickly and effectively teach this important skill. This paper describes Dragoon and an evaluation of it. The evaluation randomly assigned…
Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.
Kooi, B W
2015-12-01
We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.
Coppolino, Robert N.
2018-01-01
Verification and validation (V&V) is a highly challenging undertaking for SLS structural dynamics models due to the magnitude and complexity of SLS subassemblies and subassemblies. Responses to challenges associated with V&V of Space Launch System (SLS) structural dynamics models are presented in Volume I of this paper. Four methodologies addressing specific requirements for V&V are discussed. (1) Residual Mode Augmentation (RMA). (2) Modified Guyan Reduction (MGR) and Harmonic Reduction (HR, introduced in 1976). (3) Mode Consolidation (MC). Finally, (4) Experimental Mode Verification (EMV). This document contains the appendices to Volume I.
Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach.
Rafiei, Sima; Daneshvaran, Arman; Abdollahzade, Sina
2018-01-01
Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long-term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model-incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time. It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region. Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.
Machine Learning-based discovery of closures for reduced models of dynamical systems
Pan, Shaowu; Duraisamy, Karthik
2017-11-01
Despite the successful application of machine learning (ML) in fields such as image processing and speech recognition, only a few attempts has been made toward employing ML to represent the dynamics of complex physical systems. Previous attempts mostly focus on parameter calibration or data-driven augmentation of existing models. In this work we present a ML framework to discover closure terms in reduced models of dynamical systems and provide insights into potential problems associated with data-driven modeling. Based on exact closure models for linear system, we propose a general linear closure framework from viewpoint of optimization. The framework is based on trapezoidal approximation of convolution term. Hyperparameters that need to be determined include temporal length of memory effect, number of sampling points, and dimensions of hidden states. To circumvent the explicit specification of memory effect, a general framework inspired from neural networks is also proposed. We conduct both a priori and posteriori evaluations of the resulting model on a number of non-linear dynamical systems. This work was supported in part by AFOSR under the project ``LES Modeling of Non-local effects using Statistical Coarse-graining'' with Dr. Jean-Luc Cambier as the technical monitor.
The Modeling and Complexity of Dynamical Systems by Means of Computation and Information Theories
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Robert Logozar
2011-12-01
Full Text Available We present the modeling of dynamical systems and finding of their complexity indicators by the use of concepts from computation and information theories, within the framework of J. P. Crutchfield's theory of ε-machines. A short formal outline of the ε-machines is given. In this approach, dynamical systems are analyzed directly from the time series that is received from a properly adjusted measuring instrument. The binary strings are parsed through the parse tree, within which morphologically and probabilistically unique subtrees or morphs are recognized as system states. The outline and precise interrelation of the information-theoretic entropies and complexities emanating from the model is given. The paper serves also as a theoretical foundation for the future presentation of the DSA program that implements the ε-machines modeling up to the stochastic finite automata level.
Formal verification of dynamic hybrid systems: a NuSMV-based model checking approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Xu Zhi
2018-01-01
Full Text Available Software security is an important and challenging research topic in developing dynamic hybrid embedded software systems. Ensuring the correct behavior of these systems is particularly difficult due to the interactions between the continuous subsystem and the discrete subsystem. Currently available security analysis methods for system risks have been limited, as they rely on manual inspections of the individual subsystems under simplifying assumptions. To improve this situation, a new approach is proposed that is based on the symbolic model checking tool NuSMV. A dual PID system is used as an example system, for which the logical part and the computational part of the system are modeled in a unified manner. Constraints are constructed on the controlled object, and a counter-example path is ultimately generated, indicating that the hybrid system can be analyzed by the model checking tool.
An energy security management model using quality function deployment and system dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Shin, Juneseuk; Shin, Wan-Seon; Lee, Changyong
2013-01-01
An energy security management model using quality function deployment (QFD) and system dynamics (SD) is suggested for application in public policymaking in developing economies. Through QFD, experts are guided toward identifying key energy security components, including indicators and policies, and in making these components consistent, focused, and customized for a particular country. Using these components as inputs, we construct an intermediate complex system dynamics model with a minimal number of crucial interactions. Key policies are simulated and evaluated in terms of the improvement of key indicators. Even with little data, our approach provides a coherent, useful, and customized energy security management model to help policymakers more effectively manage national energy security. To demonstrate its advantages, the model is applied to the Korean gas sector as an example. - Highlights: ► We suggest an energy security management model for developing economies. ► We identify a consistent set of key components, indicators and policies by using QFD. ► A coherent and practical system dynamics model based on QFD's output is constructed. ► The model is applied to the Korean gas sector as an example
Dynamic model for the control system simulation and design of a 200 MW nuclear heating reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang Yuai; Liu Longzhi; Ma Changwen
1999-01-01
The author develops a nonlinear dynamic model used in a wide range control system simulation for a 200 MW Nuclear Heating Reactor (NHR-200). Besides a one-point neutron kinetics equation and temperature feedback based on the lumped fuel and coolant temperature, which are the usual methods used in modeling of PWR, two other factors are also considered in order to suit the wide range operation. The first consideration is the natural circulation in the primary loop because it affects the heat transfer coefficients in the core and in the primary heat exchanger (PHE). The second consideration is the flow rate variation in the secondary loop which leads to some nonlinear properties. The simulation results show that the model is accurate enough for control system simulation. Some model reduction basis can be obtained through the dynamic analysis
Intrinsic dynamics of heart regulatory systems on short timescales: from experiment to modelling
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khovanov, I A; Khovanova, N A; McClintock, P V E; Stefanovska, A
2009-01-01
We discuss open problems related to the stochastic modelling of cardiac function. The work is based on an experimental investigation of the dynamics of heart rate variability (HRV) in the absence of respiratory perturbations. We consider first the cardiac control system on short timescales via an analysis of HRV within the framework of a random walk approach. Our experiments show that HRV on timescales of less than a minute takes the form of free diffusion, close to Brownian motion, which can be described as a non-stationary process with stationary increments. Secondly, we consider the inverse problem of modelling the state of the control system so as to reproduce the experimentally observed HRV statistics of. We discuss some simple toy models and identify open problems for the modelling of heart dynamics
Modeling Networks and Dynamics in Complex Systems: from Nano-Composites to Opinion Formation
Shi, Feng
Complex networks are ubiquitous in systems of physical, biological, social or technological origin. Components in those systems range from as large as cities in power grids, to as small as molecules in metabolic networks. Since the dawn of network science, significant attention has focused on the implications of dynamics in establishing network structure and the impact of structural properties on dynamics on those networks. The first part of the thesis follows this direction, studying the network formed by conductive nanorods in nano-materials, and focuses on the electrical response of the composite to the structure change of the network. New scaling laws for the shear-induced anisotropic percolation are introduced and a robust exponential tail of the current distribution across the network is identified. These results are relevant especially to "active" composite materials where materials are exposed to mechanical loading and strain deformations. However, in many real-world networks the evolution of the network topology is tied to the states of the vertices and vice versa. Networks that exhibit such a feedback are called adaptive or coevolutionary networks. The second part of the thesis examines two closely related variants of a simple, abstract model for coevolution of a network and the opinions of its members. As a representative model for adaptive networks, it displays the feature of self-organization of the system into a stable configuration due to the interplay between the network topology and the dynamics on the network. This simple model yields interesting dynamics and the slight change in the rewiring strategy results in qualitatively different behaviors of the system. In conclusion, the dissertation aims to develop new network models and tools which enable insights into the structure and dynamics of various systems, and seeks to advance network algorithms which provide approaches to coherently articulated questions in real-world complex systems such as
Nonlinear dynamic modeling of rotor system supported by angular contact ball bearings
Wang, Hong; Han, Qinkai; Zhou, Daning
2017-02-01
In current bearing dynamic models, the displacement coordinate relations are usually utilized to approximately obtain the contact deformations between the rolling element and raceways, and then the nonlinear restoring forces of the rolling bearing could be calculated accordingly. Although the calculation efficiency is relatively higher, the accuracy is lower as the contact deformations should be solved through iterative analysis. Thus, an improved nonlinear dynamic model is presented in this paper. Considering the preload condition, surface waviness, Hertz contact and elastohydrodynamic lubrication, load distribution analysis is solved iteratively to more accurately obtain the contact deformations and angles between the rolling balls and raceways. The bearing restoring forces are then obtained through iteratively solving the load distribution equations at every time step. Dynamic tests upon a typical rotor system supported by two angular contact ball bearings are conducted to verify the model. Through comparisons, the differences between the nonlinear dynamic model and current models are also pointed out. The effects of axial preload, rotor eccentricity and inner/outer waviness amplitudes on the dynamic response are discussed in detail.
Dynamics of symmetry breaking during quantum real-time evolution in a minimal model system.
Heyl, Markus; Vojta, Matthias
2014-10-31
One necessary criterion for the thermalization of a nonequilibrium quantum many-particle system is ergodicity. It is, however, not sufficient in cases where the asymptotic long-time state lies in a symmetry-broken phase but the initial state of nonequilibrium time evolution is fully symmetric with respect to this symmetry. In equilibrium, one particular symmetry-broken state is chosen as a result of an infinitesimal symmetry-breaking perturbation. From a dynamical point of view the question is: Can such an infinitesimal perturbation be sufficient for the system to establish a nonvanishing order during quantum real-time evolution? We study this question analytically for a minimal model system that can be associated with symmetry breaking, the ferromagnetic Kondo model. We show that after a quantum quench from a completely symmetric state the system is able to break its symmetry dynamically and discuss how these features can be observed experimentally.
Rehan, R; Knight, M A; Unger, A J A; Haas, C T
2013-12-15
This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of urban water distribution networks. The developed causal loop diagrams are a novel contribution in that it illustrates the unique characteristics and feedback loops for financially self-sustaining water distribution networks. The system dynamics model is a mathematical realization of the developed interactions among system variables over time and is comprised of three sectors namely watermains network, consumer, and finance. This is the first known development of a water distribution network system dynamics model. The watermains network sector accounts for the unique characteristics of watermain pipes such as service life, deterioration progression, pipe breaks, and water leakage. The finance sector allows for cash reserving by the utility in addition to the pay-as-you-go and borrowing strategies. The consumer sector includes controls to model water fee growth as a function of service performance and a household's financial burden due to water fees. A series of policy levers are provided that allow the impact of various financing strategies to be evaluated in terms of financial sustainability and household affordability. The model also allows for examination of the impact of different management strategies on the water fee in terms of consistency and stability over time. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the developed system dynamics water model can be used by water utilities to achieve a variety of utility short and long-term objectives and to establish realistic and defensible water utility policies. It also discusses how the model can be used by regulatory bodies, government agencies, the financial industry, and researchers. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Stochastic modeling and simulation of reaction-diffusion system with Hill function dynamics.
Chen, Minghan; Li, Fei; Wang, Shuo; Cao, Young
2017-03-14
Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems presents great challenges for spatiotemporal biological modeling and simulation. One widely used framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems is reaction diffusion master equation (RDME). Previous studies have discovered that for the RDME, when discretization size approaches zero, reaction time for bimolecular reactions in high dimensional domains tends to infinity. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the 1D domain, highly nonlinear reaction dynamics given by Hill function may also have dramatic change when discretization size is smaller than a critical value. Moreover, we discuss methods to avoid this problem: smoothing over space, fixed length smoothing over space and a hybrid method. Our analysis reveals that the switch-like Hill dynamics reduces to a linear function of discretization size when the discretization size is small enough. The three proposed methods could correctly (under certain precision) simulate Hill function dynamics in the microscopic RDME system.
Development of a system dynamics model based on Six Sigma methodology
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
José Jovani Cardiel Ortega
2017-01-01
Full Text Available A dynamic model to analyze the complexity associated with the manufacturing systems and to improve the performance of the process through the Six Sigma philosophy is proposed. The research focuses on the implementation of the system dynamics tool to comply with each of the phases of the DMAIC methodology. In the first phase, define, the problem is articulated, collecting data, selecting the variables, and representing them in a mental map that helps build the dynamic hypothesis. In the second phase, measure, model is formulated, equations are developed, and Forrester diagram is developed to carry out the simulation. In the third phase, analyze, the simulation results are studied. For the fourth phase, improving, the model is validated through a sensitivity analysis. Finally, in control phase, operation policies are proposed. This paper presents the development of a dynamic model of the system of knitted textile production knitted developed; the implementation was done in a textile company in southern Guanajuato. The results show an improvement in the process performance by increasing the level of sigma allowing the validation of the proposed approach.
A system dynamics model for tritium cycle of pulsed fusion reactor
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Zhu, Zuolong; Nie, Baojie [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, 230027 (China); Chen, Dehong, E-mail: dehong.chen@fds.org.cn [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China)
2017-05-15
As great challenges and uncertainty exist in achieving steady plasma burning, pulsed plasma burning may be a potential scenario for fusion engineering test reactor, even for fusion DEMOnstration reactor. In order to analyze dynamic tritium inventory and tritium self-sufficiency for pulsed fusion systems, a system dynamics model of tritium cycle was developed on the basis of earlier version of Tritium Analysis program for fusion System (TAS). The model was verified with TRIMO, which was developed by KIT in Germany. Tritium self-sufficiency and dynamic tritium inventory assessment were performed for a typical fusion engineering test reactor. The verification results show that the system dynamics model can be used for tritium cycle analysis of pulsed fusion reactor with sufficient reliability. The assessment results of tritium self-sufficiency indicate that the fusion reactor might only need several hundred gram tritium to startup if achieved high efficient tritium handling ability (Referred ITER: 1 h). And the initial tritium startup inventory in pulsed fusion reactor is determined by the combined influence of pulse length, burn availability, and tritium recycle time. Meanwhile, tritium self-sufficiency can be achieved under the defined condition.
A system dynamics model for tritium cycle of pulsed fusion reactor
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhu, Zuolong; Nie, Baojie; Chen, Dehong
2017-01-01
As great challenges and uncertainty exist in achieving steady plasma burning, pulsed plasma burning may be a potential scenario for fusion engineering test reactor, even for fusion DEMOnstration reactor. In order to analyze dynamic tritium inventory and tritium self-sufficiency for pulsed fusion systems, a system dynamics model of tritium cycle was developed on the basis of earlier version of Tritium Analysis program for fusion System (TAS). The model was verified with TRIMO, which was developed by KIT in Germany. Tritium self-sufficiency and dynamic tritium inventory assessment were performed for a typical fusion engineering test reactor. The verification results show that the system dynamics model can be used for tritium cycle analysis of pulsed fusion reactor with sufficient reliability. The assessment results of tritium self-sufficiency indicate that the fusion reactor might only need several hundred gram tritium to startup if achieved high efficient tritium handling ability (Referred ITER: 1 h). And the initial tritium startup inventory in pulsed fusion reactor is determined by the combined influence of pulse length, burn availability, and tritium recycle time. Meanwhile, tritium self-sufficiency can be achieved under the defined condition.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Hamid Balali
2015-09-01
Full Text Available In the recent decades, due to many different factors, including climate change effects towards be warming and lower precipitation, as well as some structural policies such as more intensive harvesting of groundwater and low price of irrigation water, the level of groundwater has decreased in most plains of Iran. The objective of this study is to model groundwater dynamics to depletion under different economic policies and climate change by using a system dynamics approach. For this purpose a dynamic hydro-economic model which simultaneously simulates the farmer’s economic behavior, groundwater aquifer dynamics, studied area climatology factors and government economical policies related to groundwater, is developed using STELLA 10.0.6. The vulnerability of groundwater balance is forecasted under three scenarios of climate including the Dry, Nor and Wet and also, different scenarios of irrigation water and energy pricing policies. Results show that implementation of some economic policies on irrigation water and energy pricing can significantly affect on groundwater exploitation and its volume balance. By increasing of irrigation water price along with energy price, exploitation of groundwater will improve, in so far as in scenarios S15 and S16, studied area’s aquifer groundwater balance is positive at the end of planning horizon, even in Dry condition of precipitation. Also, results indicate that climate change can affect groundwater recharge. It can generally be expected that increases in precipitation would produce greater aquifer recharge rates.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Furuno, Akiko; Yamazawa, Hiromi; Lee, Soon-Hwan; Tsujita, Yuichi; Takemiya, Hiroshi; Chino, Masamichi
2000-01-01
WSPEEDI (Worldwide version of System for Prediction of Environmental Emergency Dose Information) is a computer-based emergency response system to predict long-range atmospheric dispersion of radionuclides discharged into the atmosphere due to a nuclear accident. WSPEEDI has been applied to several international exercises and real events. Through such experiences, the new version of WSPEEDI aims to employ a combination of an atmospheric dynamic model and a particle random walk model for more accurate predictions. This paper describes these models, improvement of prediction and computational techniques for quick responses. (author)
Dynamic Model of Kaplan Turbine Regulating System Suitable for Power System Analysis
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jie Zhao
2015-01-01
Full Text Available Accurate modeling of Kaplan turbine regulating system is of great significance for grid security and stability analysis. In this paper, Kaplan turbine regulating system model is divided into the governor system model, the blade control system model, and the turbine and water diversion system model. The Kaplan turbine has its particularity, and the on-cam relationship between the wicket gate opening and the runner blade angle under a certain water head on the whole range was obtained by high-order curve fitting method. Progressively the linearized Kaplan turbine model, improved ideal Kaplan turbine model, and nonlinear Kaplan turbine model were developed. The nonlinear Kaplan turbine model considered the correction function of the blade angle on the turbine power, thereby improving the model simulation accuracy. The model parameters were calculated or obtained by the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm. For the blade control system model, the default blade servomotor time constant given by value of one simplified the modeling and experimental work. Further studies combined with measured test data verified the established model accuracy and laid a foundation for further research into the influence of Kaplan turbine connecting to the grid.
Design and experiments with scale model of a ship with dynamic positioning system
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Souza, Carlos Eduardo S.; Morishita, Helio M.; Moratelli Junior, Lazaro; Lago, Glenan A.; Tannuri, Eduardo A. [Universidade de Sao Paulo (USP), SP (Brazil)
2008-07-01
Dynamic Positioning Systems (DPS) are used to keep a floating vessel on a specific position or follow pre-defined path through the action of controlled propellers. This paper describes a facility used to experimentally analyze DPS and to validate a numerical simulator. It is composed by a scale model of a DP tanker with 3 thrusters, a measurement system based on computational vision and a control software with the same DP algorithms used in industrial systems. Simple wind and current generators were also implemented. This work shows preliminary results of experiments, which has been useful to calibrate the simulator and to validate the mathematical model. (author)
Pervin, Lia; Islam, Md Saiful
2015-02-01
The aim of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for computation of yields and to investigate the dependency of yields on some major climatic parameters, i.e. temperature and rainfall, for Beta vulgaris subsp. (sugar beet crops) under future climate change scenarios. A system dynamics model was developed which takes account of the effects of rainfall and temperature on sugar beet yields under limited irrigation conditions. A relationship was also developed between the seasonal evapotranspiration and seasonal growing degree days for sugar beet crops. The proposed model was set to run for the present time period of 1993-2012 and for the future period 2013-2040 for Lethbridge region (Alberta, Canada). The model provides sugar beet yields on a yearly basis which are comparable to the present field data. It was found that the future average yield will be increased at about 14% with respect to the present average yield. The proposed model can help to improve the understanding of soil water conditions and irrigation water requirements of an area under certain climatic conditions and can be used for future prediction of yields for any crops in any region (with the required information to be provided). The developed system dynamics model can be used as a supporting tool for decision making, for improvement of agricultural management practice of any region. © 2014 Society of Chemical Industry.
Modelling household responses to energy efficiency interventions via system dynamics and survey data
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S Davis
2010-12-01
Full Text Available An application of building a system dynamics model of the way households might respond to interventions aimed at reducing energy consumption (specifically the use of electricity is described in this paper. A literature review of past research is used to build an initial integrated model of household consumption, and this model is used to generate a small number of research hypotheses about how households possessing different characteristics might react to various types of interventions. These hypotheses are tested using data gathered from an efficiency intervention conducted in a town in the South African Western Cape in which households were able to exchange regular light bulbs for more efficient compact fluorescent lamp light bulbs. Our experiences are (a that a system dynamics approach proved useful in advancing a non-traditional point of view for which, for historical and economic reasons, data were not abundantly available; (b that, in areas where traditional models are heavily quantitative, some scepticism to a system dynamics model may be expected; and (c that a statistical comparison of model results by means of empirical data may be an effective tool in reducing such scepticism.
Dynamic modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems for off-grid applications
Hasemeyer, Mark David
The volatile prices of fossil fuels and their contribution to global warming have caused many people to turn to renewable energy systems. Many developing communities are forced to use these systems as they are too far from electrical distribution. As a result, numerous software models have been developed to simulate hybrid renewable energy systems. However almost, if not all, implementations are static in design. A static design limits the ability of the model to account for changes over time. Dynamic modeling can be used to fill the gaps where other modeling techniques fall short. This modeling practice allows the user to account for the effects of technological and economic factors over time. These factors can include changes in energy demand, energy production, and income level. Dynamic modeling can be particularly useful for developing communities who are off-grid and developing at rapid rates. In this study, a dynamic model was used to evaluate a real world system. A non-governmental organization interested in improving their current infrastructure was selected. Five different scenarios were analyzed and compared in order to discover which factors the model is most sensitive to. In four of the scenarios, a new energy system was purchased in order to account for the opening of a restaurant that would be used as a source of local income generation. These scenarios were then compared to a base case in which a new system was not purchased, and the restaurant was not opened. Finally, the results were used to determine which variables had the greatest impact on the various outputs of the simulation.
Links, Jonathan M; Schwartz, Brian S; Lin, Sen; Kanarek, Norma; Mitrani-Reiser, Judith; Sell, Tara Kirk; Watson, Crystal R; Ward, Doug; Slemp, Cathy; Burhans, Robert; Gill, Kimberly; Igusa, Tak; Zhao, Xilei; Aguirre, Benigno; Trainor, Joseph; Nigg, Joanne; Inglesby, Thomas; Carbone, Eric; Kendra, James M
2018-02-01
Policy-makers and practitioners have a need to assess community resilience in disasters. Prior efforts conflated resilience with community functioning, combined resistance and recovery (the components of resilience), and relied on a static model for what is inherently a dynamic process. We sought to develop linked conceptual and computational models of community functioning and resilience after a disaster. We developed a system dynamics computational model that predicts community functioning after a disaster. The computational model outputted the time course of community functioning before, during, and after a disaster, which was used to calculate resistance, recovery, and resilience for all US counties. The conceptual model explicitly separated resilience from community functioning and identified all key components for each, which were translated into a system dynamics computational model with connections and feedbacks. The components were represented by publicly available measures at the county level. Baseline community functioning, resistance, recovery, and resilience evidenced a range of values and geographic clustering, consistent with hypotheses based on the disaster literature. The work is transparent, motivates ongoing refinements, and identifies areas for improved measurements. After validation, such a model can be used to identify effective investments to enhance community resilience. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2018;12:127-137).
Jamali, M. S.; Ismail, K. A.; Taha, Z.; Aiman, M. F.
2017-10-01
In designing suitable isolators to reduce unwanted vibration in vehicles, the response from a mathematical model which characterizes the transmissibility ratio of the input and output of the vehicle is required. In this study, a Matlab Simulink model is developed to study the dynamic behaviour performance of passive suspension system for a lightweight electric vehicle. The Simulink model is based on the two degrees of freedom system quarter car model. The model is compared to the theoretical plots of the transmissibility ratios between the amplitudes of the displacements and accelerations of the sprung and unsprung masses to the amplitudes of the ground, against the frequencies at different damping values. It was found that the frequency responses obtained from the theoretical calculations and from the Simulink simulation is comparable to each other. Hence, the model may be extended to a full vehicle model.
Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hansen, A.C.; Jauch, C.; Soerensen, P.; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.
2003-12-01
The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. However, the main attention in this report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of two wind turbine concepts: 1. Active stall wind turbine with induction generator 2. Variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator. These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. For both these two concepts, control strategies are developed and implemented, their performance assessed and discussed by means of simulations. (au)
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Baccino, Francesco; Marinelli, Mattia; Nørgård, Per Bromand
2013-01-01
The paper aims at characterizing the electrochemical and thermal parameters of a 15 kW/320 kWh vanadium redox flow battery (VRB) installed in the SYSLAB test facility of the DTU Risø Campus and experimentally validating the proposed dynamic model realized in Matlab-Simulink. The adopted testing...... efficiency of the battery system. The test procedure has general validity and could also be used for other storage technologies. The storage model proposed and described is suitable for electrical studies and can represent a general model in terms of validity. Finally, the model simulation outputs...
Dynamic modeling and simulation of EBR-II steam generator system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Berkan, R.C.; Upadhyaya, B.R.
1989-01-01
This paper presents a low order dynamic model of the Experimental breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) steam generator system. The model development includes the application of energy, mass and momentum balance equations in state-space form. The model also includes a three-element controller for the drum water level control problem. The simulation results for low-level perturbations exhibit the inherently stable characteristics of the steam generator. The predictions of test transients also verify the consistency of this low order model
Logic-based hierarchies for modeling behavior of complex dynamic systems with applications
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hu, Y.S.; Modarres, M.
2000-01-01
Most complex systems are best represented in the form of a hierarchy. The Goal Tree Success Tree and Master Logic Diagram (GTST-MLD) are proven powerful hierarchic methods to represent complex snap-shot of plant knowledge. To represent dynamic behaviors of complex systems, fuzzy logic is applied to replace binary logic to extend the power of GTST-MLD. Such a fuzzy-logic-based hierarchy is called Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD). This chapter discusses comparison of the use of GTST-DMLD when applied as a modeling tool for systems whose relationships are modeled by either physical, binary logical or fuzzy logical relationships. This is shown by applying GTST-DMLD to the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) phenomenon at pressurized water reactors which is an important safety issue being addressed by the nuclear industry. (orig.)
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
CAROLINA DELGADO HURTADO
2017-12-01
Full Text Available Research capacities are developed scientific skills that enable universities to accomplish the dissemination of high-quality scientific knowledge. Nowadays, the modeling of their dynamics is one of the most important concerns for the stakeholders related to the scientific activity, including university managers, private sector and government. In this context, the present article aims to approach the issue of modeling the capacities of the Universities’ research systems, presenting Systems Dynamics as an effective methodological tool for the treatment of data contained in intellectual capital indicators, allowing to estimate parameters, conditions and scenarios. The main contribution lays on the modeling and simulations accomplished for several scenarios, which display the critical variables and the more sensitive ones when building or strengthening research capacities. The establishment of parameters through regression techniques allowed to more accurately model the dynamics of the variables. This is an interesting contribution in terms of the accuracy of the simulations that later might be used to propose and carry out changes related to the management of the universities research. Future research with alternative modeling for social systems will allow to broaden the scope of the study.
Dynamic model reduction: An overview of available techniques with application to power systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Đukić Savo D.
2012-01-01
Full Text Available This paper summarises the model reduction techniques used for the reduction of large-scale linear and nonlinear dynamic models, described by the differential and algebraic equations that are commonly used in control theory. The groups of methods discussed in this paper for reduction of the linear dynamic model are based on singular perturbation analysis, modal analysis, singular value decomposition, moment matching and methods based on a combination of singular value decomposition and moment matching. Among the nonlinear dynamic model reduction methods, proper orthogonal decomposition, the trajectory piecewise linear method, balancing-based methods, reduction by optimising system matrices and projection from a linearised model, are described. Part of the paper is devoted to the techniques commonly used for reduction (equivalencing of large-scale power systems, which are based on coherency, synchrony, singular perturbation analysis, modal analysis and identification. Two (most interesting of the described techniques are applied to the reduction of the commonly used New England 10-generator, 39-bus test power system.
Qi, Di
Turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge where the goal is to obtain statistical estimates for key physical quantities. In the development of a proper UQ scheme for systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities, significant model errors compared with the true natural signal are always unavoidable due to both the imperfect understanding of the underlying physical processes and the limited computational resources available. One central issue in contemporary research is the development of a systematic methodology for reduced order models that can recover the crucial features both with model fidelity in statistical equilibrium and with model sensitivity in response to perturbations. In the first part, we discuss a general mathematical framework to construct statistically accurate reduced-order models that have skill in capturing the statistical variability in the principal directions of a general class of complex systems with quadratic nonlinearity. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical closure schemes, which are built through new global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity, are designed and tested for UQ of these problems. Second, the capacity of imperfect low-order stochastic approximations to model extreme events in a passive scalar field advected by turbulent flows is investigated. The effects in complicated flow systems are considered including strong nonlinear and non-Gaussian interactions, and much simpler and cheaper imperfect models with model error are constructed to capture the crucial statistical features in the stationary tracer field. Several mathematical ideas are introduced to improve the prediction skill of the imperfect reduced-order models. Most importantly, empirical information theory and statistical linear response theory are
Dynamic Thermal Model And Control Of A Pem Fuel Cell System
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Liso, Vincenzo; Nielsen, Mads Pagh
2013-01-01
the fuel cell system. A PID temperature control is implemented to study the effect of stack temperature on settling times of other variables such as stack voltage, air flow rate, oxygen excess ratio and net power of the stack. The model allows an assessment of the effect of operating parameters (stack...... power output, cooling water flow rate, air flow rate, and environmental temperature) and parameter interactions on the system thermal performance. The model represents a useful tool to determine the operating temperatures of the various components of the thermal system, and thus to fully assess......A lumped parameter dynamic model is developed for predicting the stack performance, temperatures of the exit reactant gases and coolant liquid outlet in a proton-exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system. The air compressor, humidifier and cooling heat exchanger models are integrated to study...
Dynamic Modelling of a Solar Water Pumping System with Energy Storage
Shatadru Biswas; M. Tariq Iqbal
2018-01-01
This paper describes the dynamic modelling of a system used for extraction of groundwater for irrigation using an alternative source of energy. The system is designed based on data of an existing project in Lalmonirhat, Bangladesh. The system comprises a 38.4 kWp solar photovoltaic array, inverter, AC motor, and pump set, which can discharge a maximum of 1,930 m3 of water per day. MATLAB simulation is performed with two types of energy storage system: (i) electric energy using a battery bank ...
Nonlinear dynamic modeling of a simple flexible rotor system subjected to time-variable base motions
Chen, Liqiang; Wang, Jianjun; Han, Qinkai; Chu, Fulei
2017-09-01
Rotor systems carried in transportation system or under seismic excitations are considered to have a moving base. To study the dynamic behavior of flexible rotor systems subjected to time-variable base motions, a general model is developed based on finite element method and Lagrange's equation. Two groups of Euler angles are defined to describe the rotation of the rotor with respect to the base and that of the base with respect to the ground. It is found that the base rotations would cause nonlinearities in the model. To verify the proposed model, a novel test rig which could simulate the base angular-movement is designed. Dynamic experiments on a flexible rotor-bearing system with base angular motions are carried out. Based upon these, numerical simulations are conducted to further study the dynamic response of the flexible rotor under harmonic angular base motions. The effects of base angular amplitude, rotating speed and base frequency on response behaviors are discussed by means of FFT, waterfall, frequency response curve and orbits of the rotor. The FFT and waterfall plots of the disk horizontal and vertical vibrations are marked with multiplications of the base frequency and sum and difference tones of the rotating frequency and the base frequency. Their amplitudes will increase remarkably when they meet the whirling frequencies of the rotor system.
Polynomic nonlinear dynamical systems - A residual sensitivity method for model reduction
Yurkovich, S.; Bugajski, D.; Sain, M.
1985-01-01
The motivation for using polynomic combinations of system states and inputs to model nonlinear dynamics systems is founded upon the classical theories of analysis and function representation. A feature of such representations is the need to make available all possible monomials in these variables, up to the degree specified, so as to provide for the description of widely varying functions within a broad class. For a particular application, however, certain monomials may be quite superfluous. This paper examines the possibility of removing monomials from the model in accordance with the level of sensitivity displayed by the residuals to their absence. Critical in these studies is the effect of system input excitation, and the effect of discarding monomial terms, upon the model parameter set. Therefore, model reduction is approached iteratively, with inputs redesigned at each iteration to ensure sufficient excitation of remaining monomials for parameter approximation. Examples are reported to illustrate the performance of such model reduction approaches.
Bagheri, Shahriar; Wu, Nan; Filizadeh, Shaahin
2018-06-01
This paper presents an iterative numerical method that accurately models an energy harvesting system charging a capacitor with piezoelectric patches. The constitutive relations of piezoelectric materials connected with an external charging circuit with a diode bridge and capacitors lead to the electromechanical coupling effect and the difficulty of deriving accurate transient mechanical response, as well as the charging progress. The proposed model is built upon the Euler-Bernoulli beam theory and takes into account the electromechanical coupling effects as well as the dynamic process of charging an external storage capacitor. The model is validated through experimental tests on a cantilever beam coated with piezoelectric patches. Several parametric studies are performed and the functionality of the model is verified. The efficiency of power harvesting system can be predicted and tuned considering variations in different design parameters. Such a model can be utilized to design robust and optimal energy harvesting system.
Low-order dynamical system model of a fully developed turbulent channel flow
Hamilton, Nicholas; Tutkun, Murat; Cal, Raúl Bayoán
2017-06-01
A reduced order model of a turbulent channel flow is composed from a direct numerical simulation database hosted at the Johns Hopkins University. Snapshot proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is used to identify the Hilbert space from which the reduced order model is obtained, as the POD basis is defined to capture the optimal energy content by mode. The reduced order model is defined by coupling the evolution of the dynamic POD mode coefficients through their respective time derivative with a least-squares polynomial fit of terms up to third order. Parameters coupling the dynamics of the POD basis are defined in analog to those produced in the classical Galerkin projection. The resulting low-order dynamical system is tested for a range of basis modes demonstrating that the non-linear mode interactions do not lead to a monotonic decrease in error propagation. A basis of five POD modes accounts for 50% of the integrated turbulence kinetic energy but captures only the largest features of the turbulence in the channel flow and is not able to reflect the anticipated flow dynamics. Using five modes, the low-order model is unable to accurately reproduce Reynolds stresses, and the root-mean-square error of the predicted stresses is as great as 30%. Increasing the basis to 28 modes accounts for 90% of the kinetic energy and adds intermediate scales to the dynamical system. The difference between the time derivatives of the random coefficients associated with individual modes and their least-squares fit is amplified in the numerical integration leading to unstable long-time solutions. Periodic recalibration of the dynamical system is undertaken by limiting the integration time to the range of the sampled data and offering the dynamical system new initial conditions. Renewed initial conditions are found by pushing the mode coefficients in the end of the integration time toward a known point along the original trajectories identified through a least-squares projection. Under
Package Flow Model and its fuzzy implementation for simulating nuclear reactor system dynamics
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Matsuoka, Hiroshi; Ishiguro, Misako.
1996-01-01
A simple intuitive simulation model, which we call 'Package Flow Model', has been developed to evaluate physical processes in nuclear reactor system from a macroscopic point of view. In the previous paper, we showed the physical process of each energy generation and transfer stage in a PWR could be modeled by PFM, and its dynamics could be approximately simulated by fuzzy implementation. In this paper, a PFMs network approach for a total PWR system simulation is proposed and some transients of nuclear ship 'MUTSU' reactor system are evaluated. The simulated results are consistent with those from Nuclear Ship Engineering Simulation System developed by JAERI. Furthermore, a visual representation method is proposed to intuitively capture the profile of fuel safety transient. Using the PFMs network, we can handily calculate the transient phenomena of the system even by a notebook-type personal computer. In addition, we can easily interpret the results of calculation surveying a small number of parameters. (author)
Update on Small Modular Reactors Dynamics System Modeling Tool -- Molten Salt Cooled Architecture
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hale, Richard Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Qualls, A L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Borum, Robert C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chaleff, Ethan S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rogerson, Doug W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Batteh, John J. [Modelon Corporation (Sweden); Tiller, Michael M. [Xogeny Corporation, Canton, MI (United States)
2014-08-01
The Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Dynamic System Modeling Tool project is in the third year of development. The project is designed to support collaborative modeling and study of various advanced SMR (non-light water cooled) concepts, including the use of multiple coupled reactors at a single site. The objective of the project is to provide a common simulation environment and baseline modeling resources to facilitate rapid development of dynamic advanced reactor SMR models, ensure consistency among research products within the Instrumentation, Controls, and Human-Machine Interface (ICHMI) technical area, and leverage cross-cutting capabilities while minimizing duplication of effort. The combined simulation environment and suite of models are identified as the Modular Dynamic SIMulation (MoDSIM) tool. The critical elements of this effort include (1) defining a standardized, common simulation environment that can be applied throughout the program, (2) developing a library of baseline component modules that can be assembled into full plant models using existing geometry and thermal-hydraulic data, (3) defining modeling conventions for interconnecting component models, and (4) establishing user interfaces and support tools to facilitate simulation development (i.e., configuration and parameterization), execution, and results display and capture.
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Puyol, D.; Flores Alsina, Xavier; Segura, Y.
2017-01-01
The objective of this study is to show the preliminary results of a (dynamic) mathematical model describing the effects of zero valent iron (ZVI) addition during the anaerobic digestion of waste activated sludge from wastewater treatment systems. A modified version of the Anaerobic Digestion Model...... No. 1 (ADM1) upgraded with an improved physico-chemical description, ZVI corrosion, propionate uptake enhancement and multiple mineral precipitation is used as a modelling platform. The proposed approach is tested against two case studies which correspond to two lab scale anaerobic digesters (AD2, AD....... Simulations demonstrate that the model is capable to satisfactorily reproduce the dynamics of hydrolysis, acetogenesis, acidogenesis, nutrient release, pH and methanogenesis in the control anaerobic digester (AD1). This study also evidences the enhancement of methane production by the influence of ZVI...
System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Li Cheng
2010-06-01
Full Text Available A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity (WRCC was set up using the method of system dynamics (SD. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted: (1 continuity of existing water utilization, (2 water conservation/saving, and (3 water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.
Causal Loop-based Modeling on System Dynamics for Risk Communication
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Chang Ju [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2009-10-15
It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models.
Causal Loop-based Modeling on System Dynamics for Risk Communication
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lee, Chang Ju; Kang, Kyung Min
2009-01-01
It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models
Dynamic modelling of a PV pumping system with special consideration on water demand
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Campana, Pietro Elia; Li, Hailong; Yan, Jinyue
2013-01-01
Highlights: ► Evaluation of water demand and solar energy is essential for PV pumping system. ► The design for a PV water pumping system has been optimized based on dynamic simulations. ► It is important to conduct dynamic simulations to check the matching between water demand and water supply. ► AC pump driven by the fixed PV array is the most cost-effective solution. - Abstract: The exploitation of solar energy in remote areas through photovoltaic (PV) systems is an attractive solution for water pumping for irrigation systems. The design of a photovoltaic water pumping system (PVWPS) strictly depends on the estimation of the crop water requirements and land use since the water demand varies during the watering season and the solar irradiation changes time by time. It is of significance to conduct dynamic simulations in order to achieve the successful and optimal design. The aim of this paper is to develop a dynamic modelling tool for the design of a of photovoltaic water pumping system by combining the models of the water demand, the solar PV power and the pumping system, which can be used to validate the design procedure in terms of matching between water demand and water supply. Both alternate current (AC) and direct current (DC) pumps and both fixed and two-axis tracking PV array were analyzed. The tool has been applied in a case study. Results show that it has the ability to do rapid design and optimization of PV water pumping system by reducing the power peak and selecting the proper devices from both technical and economic viewpoints. Among the different alternatives considered in this study, the AC fixed system represented the best cost effective solution
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Cugliandolo, Leticia F.
2003-09-01
These lecture notes can be read in two ways. The first two Sections contain a review of the phenomenology of several physical systems with slow nonequilibrium dynamics. In the Conclusions we summarize the scenario for this temporal evolution derived from the solution to some solvable models (p spin and the like) that are intimately connected to the mode coupling approach (and similar ones) to super-cooled liquids. At the end we list a number of open problems of great relevance in this context. These Sections can be read independently of the body of the paper where we present some of the basic analytic techniques used to study the out of equilibrium dynamics of classical and quantum models with and without disorder. We start the technical part by briefly discussing the role played by the environment and by introducing and comparing its representation in the equilibrium and dynamic treatment of classical and quantum systems. We next explain the role played by explicit quenched disorder in both approaches. Later on we focus on analytical techniques; we expand on the dynamic functional methods, and the diagrammatic expansions and resummations used to derive macroscopic equations from the microscopic dynamics. We show why the macroscopic dynamic equations for disordered models and those resulting from self-consistent approximations to non-disordered ones coincide. We review some generic properties of dynamic systems evolving out of equilibrium like the modifications of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, generic scaling forms of the correlation functions, etc. Finally we solve a family of mean-field models. The connection between the dynamic treatment and the analysis of the free-energy landscape of these models is also presented. We use pedagogical examples all along these lectures to illustrate the properties and results. (author)
Hopping system control with an approximated dynamics model and upper-body motion
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lee, Hyang Jun; Oh, Jun Ho [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)
2015-11-15
A hopping system is highly non-linear due to the nature of its dynamics, which has alternating phases in a cycle, flight and stance phases and related transitions. Every control method that stabilizes the hopping system satisfies the Poincaré stability condition. At the Poincaré section, a hopping system cycle is considered as discrete sectional data set. By controlling the sectional data in a discrete control form, we can generate a stable hopping cycle. We utilize phase-mapping matrices to build a Poincaré return map by approximating the dynamics of the hopping system with SLIP model. We can generate various Poincaré stable gait patterns with the approximated discrete control form which uses upper-body motions as inputs.
Bridge Deterioration Prediction Model Based On Hybrid Markov-System Dynamic
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Widodo Soetjipto Jojok
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Instantaneous bridge failure tends to increase in Indonesia. To mitigate this condition, Indonesia’s Bridge Management System (I-BMS has been applied to continuously monitor the condition of bridges. However, I-BMS only implements visual inspection for maintenance priority of the bridge structure component instead of bridge structure system. This paper proposes a new bridge failure prediction model based on hybrid Markov-System Dynamic (MSD. System dynamic is used to represent the correlation among bridge structure components while Markov chain is used to calculate temporal probability of the bridge failure. Around 235 data of bridges in Indonesia were collected from Directorate of Bridge the Ministry of Public Works and Housing for calculating transition probability of the model. To validate the model, a medium span concrete bridge was used as a case study. The result shows that the proposed model can accurately predict the bridge condition. Besides predicting the probability of the bridge failure, this model can also be used as an early warning system for bridge monitoring activity.
Darmon, David
2018-03-01
In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.
A dynamic model of the reactor coolant system flow for KMRR plant simulation
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Rhee, B.W.; Noh, T.W.; Park, C.; Sim, B.S.; Oh, S.K.
1990-01-01
To support computer simulation studies for reactor control system design and performance evaluation, a dynamic model of the reactor coolant system (RCS) and reflector cooling system has been developed. This model is composed of the reactor coolant loop momentum equation, RCS pump dynamic equation, RCS pump characteristic equation, and the energy equation for the coolant inside the various components and piping. The model is versatile enough to simulate the normal steady-state conditions as well as most of the anticipated flow transients without pipe rupture. This model has been successfully implemented as the plant simulation code KMRRSIM for the Korea Multi-purpose Research Reactor and is now under extensive validation testing. The initial stage of validation has been comparison of its result with that of already validated, more detailed reactor system transient codes such as RELAP5. The results, as compared to the predictions by RELAP5 simulation, have been generally found to be very encouraging and the model is judged to be accurate enough to fulfill its intended purpose. However, this model will continue to be validated against other plant's data and eventually will be assessed by test data from KMRR
Pedamallu, Chandra Sekhar; Ozdamar, Linet; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm; Kropat, Erik
2010-06-01
The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for study the importance of infrastructure facilities on quality of primary education system in developing nations. The model is proposed to be built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the primary education system in any given community. We offer a survey to build the cross-impact correlation matrix and, hence, to better understand the primary education system and importance of infrastructural facilities on quality of primary education. The resulting model enables us to predict the effects of infrastructural facilities on the access of primary education by the community. This may support policy makers to take more effective actions in campaigns.
Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří [Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno (Czech Republic)
2015-03-10
In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text.
Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří
2015-01-01
In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text
GIS and dynamic phenomena modeling
Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database
Klimešová, Dana
2006-01-01
Roč. 4, č. 4 (2006), s. 11-15 ISSN 0139-570X Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10750506 Keywords : dynamic modelling * temporal analysis * dynamics evaluation * temporal space Subject RIV: BC - Control Systems Theory
Thermodynamic model of a thermal storage air conditioning system with dynamic behavior
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Fleming, E; Wen, SY; Shi, L; da Silva, AK
2013-12-01
A thermodynamic model was developed to predict transient behavior of a thermal storage system, using phase change materials (PCMs), for a novel electric vehicle climate conditioning application. The main objectives of the paper are to consider the system's dynamic behavior, such as a dynamic air flow rate into the vehicle's cabin, and to characterize the transient heat transfer process between the thermal storage unit and the vehicle's cabin, while still maintaining accurate solution to the complex phase change heat transfer. The system studied consists of a heat transfer fluid circulating between either of the on-board hot and cold thermal storage units, which we refer to as thermal batteries, and a liquid-air heat exchanger that provides heat exchange with the incoming air to the vehicle cabin. Each thermal battery is a shell-and-tube configuration where a heat transfer fluid flows through parallel tubes, which are surrounded by PCM within a larger shell. The system model incorporates computationally inexpensive semianalytic solution to the conjugated laminar forced convection and phase change problem within the battery and accounts for airside heat exchange using the Number of Transfer Units (NTUs) method for the liquid-air heat exchanger. Using this approach, we are able to obtain an accurate solution to the complex heat transfer problem within the battery while also incorporating the impact of the airside heat transfer on the overall system performance. The implemented model was benchmarked against a numerical study for a melting process and against full system experimental data for solidification using paraffin wax as the PCM. Through modeling, we demonstrate the importance of capturing the airside heat exchange impact on system performance, and we investigate system response to dynamic operating conditions, e.g., air recirculation. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Thermodynamic model of a thermal storage air conditioning system with dynamic behavior
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Fleming, Evan; Wen, Shaoyi; Shi, Li; Silva, Alexandre K. da
2013-01-01
Highlights: • We developed an automotive thermal storage air conditioning system model. • The thermal storage unit utilizes phase change materials. • We use semi-analytic solution to the coupled phase change and forced convection. • We model the airside heat exchange using the NTU method. • The system model can incorporate dynamic inputs, e.g. variable inlet airflow. - Abstract: A thermodynamic model was developed to predict transient behavior of a thermal storage system, using phase change materials (PCMs), for a novel electric vehicle climate conditioning application. The main objectives of the paper are to consider the system’s dynamic behavior, such as a dynamic air flow rate into the vehicle’s cabin, and to characterize the transient heat transfer process between the thermal storage unit and the vehicle’s cabin, while still maintaining accurate solution to the complex phase change heat transfer. The system studied consists of a heat transfer fluid circulating between either of the on-board hot and cold thermal storage units, which we refer to as thermal batteries, and a liquid–air heat exchanger that provides heat exchange with the incoming air to the vehicle cabin. Each thermal battery is a shell-and-tube configuration where a heat transfer fluid flows through parallel tubes, which are surrounded by PCM within a larger shell. The system model incorporates computationally inexpensive semi-analytic solution to the conjugated laminar forced convection and phase change problem within the battery and accounts for airside heat exchange using the Number of Transfer Units (NTUs) method for the liquid–air heat exchanger. Using this approach, we are able to obtain an accurate solution to the complex heat transfer problem within the battery while also incorporating the impact of the airside heat transfer on the overall system performance. The implemented model was benchmarked against a numerical study for a melting process and against full system
Impact of Cross-Axis Structural Dynamics on Validation of Linear Models for Space Launch System
Pei, Jing; Derry, Stephen D.; Zhou Zhiqiang; Newsom, Jerry R.
2014-01-01
A feasibility study was performed to examine the advisability of incorporating a set of Programmed Test Inputs (PTIs) during the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle flight. The intent of these inputs is to provide validation to the preflight models for control system stability margins, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics. During October 2009, Ares I-X program was successful in carrying out a series of PTI maneuvers which provided a significant amount of valuable data for post-flight analysis. The resulting data comparisons showed excellent agreement with the preflight linear models across the frequency spectrum of interest. However unlike Ares I-X, the structural dynamics associated with the SLS boost phase configuration are far more complex and highly coupled in all three axes. This presents a challenge when implementing this similar system identification technique to SLS. Preliminary simulation results show noticeable mismatches between PTI validation and analytical linear models in the frequency range of the structural dynamics. An alternate approach was examined which demonstrates the potential for better overall characterization of the system frequency response as well as robustness of the control design.
Exploring oil market dynamics: a system dynamics model and microworld of the oil producers
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Morecroft, J.D.W. [London Business School (United Kingdom); Marsh, B. [St Andrews Management Institute, Fife (United Kingdom)
1997-11-01
This chapter focuses on the development of a simulation model of global oil markets by Royal Dutch/Shell Planners in order to explore the implications of different scenarios. The model development process, mapping the decision making logic of the oil producers, the swing producer making enough to defend the intended price, the independents, quota setting, the opportunists, and market oil price and demand are examined. Use of the model to generate scenarios development of the model as a gaming simulator for training, design of the user interface, and the value of the model are considered in detail. (UK)
Model order reduction of large-scale dynamical systems with Jacobi-Davidson style eigensolvers
Benner, P.; Hochstenbach, M.E.; Kürschner, P.
2011-01-01
Many applications concerning physical and technical processes employ dynamical systems for simulation purposes. The increasing demand for a more accurate and detailed description of realistic phenomena leads to high dimensional dynamical systems and hence, simulation often yields an increased
Dynamic emulation modelling for the optimal operation of water systems: an overview
Castelletti, A.; Galelli, S.; Giuliani, M.
2014-12-01
Despite sustained increase in computing power over recent decades, computational limitations remain a major barrier to the effective and systematic use of large-scale, process-based simulation models in rational environmental decision-making. Whereas complex models may provide clear advantages when the goal of the modelling exercise is to enhance our understanding of the natural processes, they introduce problems of model identifiability caused by over-parameterization and suffer from high computational burden when used in management and planning problems. As a result, increasing attention is now being devoted to emulation modelling (or model reduction) as a way of overcoming these limitations. An emulation model, or emulator, is a low-order approximation of the process-based model that can be substituted for it in order to solve high resource-demanding problems. In this talk, an overview of emulation modelling within the context of the optimal operation of water systems will be provided. Particular emphasis will be given to Dynamic Emulation Modelling (DEMo), a special type of model complexity reduction in which the dynamic nature of the original process-based model is preserved, with consequent advantages in a wide range of problems, particularly feedback control problems. This will be contrasted with traditional non-dynamic emulators (e.g. response surface and surrogate models) that have been studied extensively in recent years and are mainly used for planning purposes. A number of real world numerical experiences will be used to support the discussion ranging from multi-outlet water quality control in water reservoir through erosion/sedimentation rebalancing in the operation of run-off-river power plants to salinity control in lake and reservoirs.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hess, Stephen M.; Albano, Alfonso M.; Gaertner, John P.
2005-01-01
Application of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques to model nuclear power plant accident sequences has provided a significant contribution to understanding the potential initiating events, equipment failures and operator errors that can lead to core damage accidents. Application of the lessons learned from these analyses has resulted in significant improvements in plant operation and safety. However, this approach has not been nearly as successful in addressing the impact of plant processes and management effectiveness on the risks of plant operation. The research described in this paper presents an alternative approach to addressing this issue. In this paper we propose a dynamical systems model that describes the interaction of important plant processes on nuclear safety risk. We discuss development of the mathematical model including the identification and interpretation of significant inter-process interactions. Next, we review the techniques applicable to analysis of nonlinear dynamical systems that are utilized in the characterization of the model. This is followed by a preliminary analysis of the model that demonstrates that its dynamical evolution displays features that have been observed at commercially operating plants. From this analysis, several significant insights are presented with respect to the effective control of nuclear safety risk. As an important example, analysis of the model dynamics indicates that significant benefits in effectively managing risk are obtained by integrating the plant operation and work management processes such that decisions are made utilizing a multidisciplinary and collaborative approach. We note that although the model was developed specifically to be applicable to nuclear power plants, many of the insights and conclusions obtained are likely applicable to other process industries
Liu, Hui; Benoit, Gaboury; Liu, Tao; Liu, Yong; Guo, Huaicheng
2015-05-15
A reliable system simulation to relate socioeconomic development with water environment and to comprehensively represent a watershed's dynamic features is important. In this study, after identifying lake watershed system processes, we developed a system dynamics modeling framework for managing lake water quality at the watershed scale. Two reinforcing loops (Development and Investment Promotion) and three balancing loops (Pollution, Resource Consumption, and Pollution Control) were constituted. Based on this work, we constructed Stock and Flow Diagrams that embedded a pollutant load model and a lake water quality model into a socioeconomic system dynamics model. The Dianchi Lake in Yunnan Province, China, which is the sixth largest and among the most severely polluted freshwater lakes in China, was employed as a case study to demonstrate the applicability of the model. Water quality parameters considered in the model included chemical oxygen demand (COD), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP). The business-as-usual (BAU) scenario and three alternative management scenarios on spatial adjustment of industries and population (S1), wastewater treatment capacity construction (S2), and structural adjustment of agriculture (S3), were simulated to assess the effectiveness of certain policies in improving water quality. Results showed that S2 is most effective scenario, and the COD, TN, and TP concentrations in Caohai in 2030 are 52.5, 10.9, and 0.8 mg/L, while those in Waihai are 9.6, 1.2, and 0.08 mg/L, with sustained development in the watershed. Thus, the model can help support the decision making required in development and environmental protection strategies. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Evaluation of Sustainability of Brazilian Ethanol Production: A model in System Dynamics
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Arnoldo Jose de Hoyos Guevara
2017-01-01
Full Text Available System dynamics is an approach to analyze the behavior of complex systems, such as the productive chains, strictly considering the inherent characteristics. This approach is based on mathematical concepts of nonlinear processes developed in mathematics and physics and consolidated in engineering. The concepts inherent in this approach assists in creating a mathematical model that represents a production chain by using computer simulation. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to present the formalization of the dynamic model of assessing the sustainability of Brazilian ethanol production. We analyzed the external environment and the scenarios needed for a deeper understanding of relation of cause and effect, causal loops and diagrams of flows and stocks because of the awareness stage, with regard to understanding the problems involved, according to methodology known as design science.
The effect of food portion sizes on the obesity prevention using system dynamics modelling
Abidin, Norhaslinda Zainal; Zulkepli, Jafri Hj; Zaibidi, Nerda Zura
2014-09-01
The rise in income and population growth have increased the demand for food and induced changes in food habits, food purchasing and consumption patterns in Malaysia. With this transition, one of the plausible causes of weight gain and obesity is the frequent consumption of outside food which is synonymous with bigger portion size. Therefore, the aim of this paper is to develop a system dynamics model to analyse the effect of reducing food portion size on weight and obesity prevention. This study combines the different strands of knowledge comprise of nutrition, physical activity and body metabolism. These elements are synthesized into a system dynamics model called SIMULObese. Findings from this study suggested that changes in eating behavior should not emphasize only on limiting the food portion size consumption. The efforts should also consider other eating events such as controlling the meal frequency and limiting intake of high-calorie food in developing guidelines to prevent obesity.
Modelling and simulation of a dynamical system with the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative
Owolabi, Kolade M.
2018-01-01
In this paper, we model an ecological system consisting of a predator and two preys with the newly derived two-step fractional Adams-Bashforth method via the Atangana-Baleanu derivative in the Caputo sense. We analyze the dynamical system for correct choice of parameter values that are biologically meaningful. The local analysis of the main model is based on the application of qualitative theory for ordinary differential equations. By using the fixed point theorem idea, we establish the existence and uniqueness of the solutions. Convergence results of the new scheme are verified in both space and time. Dynamical wave phenomena of solutions are verified via some numerical results obtained for different values of the fractional index, which have some interesting ecological implications.
Model implementation for dynamic computation of system cost for advanced life support
Levri, J. A.; Vaccari, D. A.
2004-01-01
Life support system designs for long-duration space missions have a multitude of requirements drivers, such as mission objectives, political considerations, cost, crew wellness, inherent mission attributes, as well as many other influences. Evaluation of requirements satisfaction can be difficult, particularly at an early stage of mission design. Because launch cost is a critical factor and relatively easy to quantify, it is a point of focus in early mission design. The method used to determine launch cost influences the accuracy of the estimate. This paper discusses the appropriateness of dynamic mission simulation in estimating the launch cost of a life support system. This paper also provides an abbreviated example of a dynamic simulation life support model and possible ways in which such a model might be utilized for design improvement. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Verheyen, Davy; Bolívar, Araceli; Pérez-Rodríguez, Fernando; Baka, Maria; Skåra, Torstein; Van Impe, Jan F
2018-06-01
Traditionally, predictive growth models for food pathogens are developed based on experiments in broth media, resulting in models which do not incorporate the influence of food microstructure. The use of model systems with various microstructures is a promising concept to get more insight into the influence of food microstructure on microbial dynamics. By means of minimal variation of compositional and physicochemical factors, these model systems can be used to study the isolated effect of certain microstructural aspects on microbial growth, survival and inactivation. In this study, the isolated effect on microbial growth dynamics of Listeria monocytogenes of two food microstructural aspects and one aspect influenced by food microstructure were investigated, i.e., the nature of the food matrix, the presence of fat droplets, and microorganism growth morphology, respectively. To this extent, fish-based model systems with various microstructures were used, i.e., a liquid, a second more viscous liquid system containing xanthan gum, an emulsion, an aqueous gel, and a gelled emulsion. Growth experiments were conducted at 4 and 10 °C, both using homogeneous and surface inoculation (only for the gelled systems). Results regarding the influence of the growth morphology indicated that the lag phase of planktonic cells in the liquid system was similar to the lag phase of submerged colonies in the xanthan system. The lag phase of submerged colonies in each gelled system was considerably longer than the lag phase of surface colonies on these respective systems. The maximum specific growth rate of planktonic cells in the liquid system was significantly lower than for submerged colonies in the xanthan system at 10 °C, while no significant differences were observed at 4 °C. The maximum cell density was higher for submerged colonies than for surface colonies. The nature of the food matrix only exerted an influence on the maximum specific growth rate, which was
MODELING OF DYNAMIC SYSTEMS WITH MODULATION BY MEANS OF KRONECKER VECTOR-MATRIX REPRESENTATION
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
A. S. Vasilyev
2015-09-01
Full Text Available The paper deals with modeling of dynamic systems with modulation by the possibilities of state-space method. This method, being the basis of modern control theory, is based on the possibilities of vector-matrix formalism of linear algebra and helps to solve various problems of technical control of continuous and discrete nature invariant with respect to the dimension of their “input-output” objects. Unfortunately, it turned its back on the wide group of control systems, which hardware environment modulates signals. The marked system deficiency is partially offset by this paper, which proposes Kronecker vector-matrix representations for purposes of system representation of processes with signal modulation. The main result is vector-matrix representation of processes with modulation with no formal difference from continuous systems. It has been found that abilities of these representations could be effectively used in research of systems with modulation. Obtained model representations of processes with modulation are best adapted to the state-space method. These approaches for counting eigenvalues of Kronecker matrix summaries, that are matrix basis of model representations of processes described by Kronecker vector products, give the possibility to use modal direction in research of dynamics for systems with modulation. It is shown that the use of controllability for eigenvalues of general matrixes applied to Kronecker structures enabled to divide successfully eigenvalue spectrum into directed and not directed components. Obtained findings including design problems for models of dynamic processes with modulation based on the features of Kronecker vector and matrix structures, invariant with respect to the dimension of input-output relations, are applicable in the development of alternate current servo drives.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Khaizer, A.N.; Hussain, I.
2015-01-01
This paper presents a time-domain approach for identification of longitudinal dynamics of single rotor model helicopter. A frequency sweep excitation input signal is applied for hover flying mode widely used for space state linearized model. A fully automated programmed flight test method provides high quality flight data for system identification using the computer controlled flight simulator X-plane. The flight test data were recorded, analyzed and reduced using the SIDPAC (System Identification Programs for Air Craft) toolbox for MATLAB, resulting in an aerodynamic model of single rotor helicopter. Finally, the identified model of single rotor helicopter is validated on Raptor 30-class model helicopter at hover showing the reliability of proposed approach. (author)
Identifying and Modeling Dynamic Preference Evolution in Multipurpose Water Resources Systems
Mason, E.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Amigoni, F.
2018-04-01
Multipurpose water systems are usually operated on a tradeoff of conflicting operating objectives. Under steady state climatic and socioeconomic conditions, such tradeoff is supposed to represent a fair and/or efficient preference. Extreme variability in external forcing might affect water operators' risk aversion and force a change in her/his preference. Properly accounting for these shifts is key to any rigorous retrospective assessment of the operator's behaviors, and to build descriptive models for projecting the future system evolution. In this study, we explore how the selection of different preferences is linked to variations in the external forcing. We argue that preference selection evolves according to recent, extreme variations in system performance: underperforming in one of the objectives pushes the preference toward the harmed objective. To test this assumption, we developed a rational procedure to simulate the operator's preference selection. We map this selection onto a multilateral negotiation, where multiple virtual agents independently optimize different objectives. The agents periodically negotiate a compromise policy for the operation of the system. Agents' attitudes in each negotiation step are determined by the recent system performance measured by the specific objective they maximize. We then propose a numerical model of preference dynamics that implements a concept from cognitive psychology, the availability bias. We test our modeling framework on a synthetic lake operated for flood control and water supply. Results show that our model successfully captures the operator's preference selection and dynamic evolution driven by extreme wet and dry situations.
Dynamic modeling system for the transfer of radioactivity in terrestrial food chains
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Simmonds, J.R.; Linsley, G.S.
1981-01-01
A dynamic modeling system is described for the transfer of radionuclides in terrestrial food chains. The main features of the system are its ability to predict the time dependence of the major transfer processes and its flexibility and applicability to a range of contamination scenarios. The modeling system is regarded as a basic framework on which more realistic models can be based, given the availability of reliable environmental transfer data. An example of such a development is included for 90 Sr in the pasture-cow-milk pathway. The model predicts annual average concentrations of 90 Sr in milk caused by fallout in the United Kingdom to within 15% of measured values for over most of the 20-y period for which data exist. It makes possible the evaluation of the time dependence of the contributions of various transfer processes. Following acute releases to the atmosphere or releases in any other contamination scenario where direct deposition is absent, certain pathways often not considered in food-chain models, such as the external contamination of plants caused by resuspension processes or the ingestion of contaminants together with soil by grazing animals, are shown to be potentially important in the transfer of activity to man. The main application of dynamic food-chain models is the prediction of the consequences of accidental releases to the terrestrial environment. The predictions can be used in planning countermeasures and in assessing the health, economic, and social impacts of accidental release
Control Systems for a Dynamic Multi-Physics Model of a Nuclear Hybrid Energy System
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Greenwood, Michael Scott [ORNL; Fugate, David W [ORNL; Cetiner, Sacit M [ORNL
2017-01-01
A Nuclear Hybrid Energy System (NHES) uses a nuclear reactor as the basic power generation unit, and the power generated is used by multiple customers as either thermal power, electrical power, or both. The definition and architecture of a particular NHES can be adapted based on the needs and opportunities of different local markets. For example, locations in need of potable water may be best served by coupling a desalination plant to the NHES. Similarly, a location near oil refineries may have a need for emission-free hydrogen production. Using the flexible, multi-domain capabilities of Modelica, Argonne National Laboratory, Idaho National Laboratory, and Oak Ridge National Laboratory are investigating the dynamics (e.g., thermal hydraulics and electrical generation/consumption) and cost of a hybrid system. This paper examines the NHES work underway, emphasizing the control system developed for individual subsystems and the overall supervisory control system.
Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Deep Geothermal Electric Submersible Pumping Systems
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Julian Kullick
2017-10-01
Full Text Available Deep geothermal energy systems employ electric submersible pumps (ESPs in order to lift geothermal fluid from the production well to the surface. However, rough downhole conditions and high flow rates impose heavy strain on the components, leading to frequent failures of the pump system. As downhole sensor data is limited and often unrealible, a detailed and dynamical model system will serve as basis for deeper understanding and analysis of the overall system behavior. Furthermore, it allows to design model-based condition monitoring and fault detection systems, and to improve controls leading to a more robust and efficient operation. In this paper, a detailed state-space model of the complete ESP system is derived, covering the electrical, mechanical and hydraulic subsystems. Based on the derived model, the start-up phase of an exemplary yet realistic ESP system in the Megawatt range—located at a setting depth of 950 m and producing geothermal fluid of 140 ∘ C temperature at a rate of 0.145 m 3 s − 1 —is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink. The simulation results show that the system reaches a stable operating point with realistic values. Furthermore, the effect of self-excitation between the filter capacitor and the motor inductor can clearly be observed. A full set of parameters is provided, allowing for direct model implementation and reproduction of the presented results.
The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Steen Nielsen
2015-01-01
Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.
Robust and efficient parameter estimation in dynamic models of biological systems.
Gábor, Attila; Banga, Julio R
2015-10-29
Dynamic modelling provides a systematic framework to understand function in biological systems. Parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic models remains a very challenging inverse problem due to its nonconvexity and ill-conditioning. Associated issues like overfitting and local solutions are usually not properly addressed in the systems biology literature despite their importance. Here we present a method for robust and efficient parameter estimation which uses two main strategies to surmount the aforementioned difficulties: (i) efficient global optimization to deal with nonconvexity, and (ii) proper regularization methods to handle ill-conditioning. In the case of regularization, we present a detailed critical comparison of methods and guidelines for properly tuning them. Further, we show how regularized estimations ensure the best trade-offs between bias and variance, reducing overfitting, and allowing the incorporation of prior knowledge in a systematic way. We illustrate the performance of the presented method with seven case studies of different nature and increasing complexity, considering several scenarios of data availability, measurement noise and prior knowledge. We show how our method ensures improved estimations with faster and more stable convergence. We also show how the calibrated models are more generalizable. Finally, we give a set of simple guidelines to apply this strategy to a wide variety of calibration problems. Here we provide a parameter estimation strategy which combines efficient global optimization with a regularization scheme. This method is able to calibrate dynamic models in an efficient and robust way, effectively fighting overfitting and allowing the incorporation of prior information.
Modelling the Effects of Parking Charge and Supply Policy Using System Dynamics Method
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Zhenyu Mei
2017-01-01
Full Text Available Reasonable parking charge and supply policy are essential for the regular operation of the traffic in city center. This paper develops an evaluation model for parking policies using system dynamics. A quantitative study is conducted to examine the effects of parking charge and supply policy on traffic speed. The model, which is composed of three interrelated subsystems, first summarizes the travel cost of each travel mode and then calibrates the travel choice model through the travel mode subsystem. Finally, the subsystem that evaluates the state of traffic forecasts future car speed based on bureau of public roads (BPR function and generates new travel cost until the entire model reaches a steady state. The accuracy of the model is verified in Hangzhou Wulin business district. The related error of predicted speed is only 2.2%. The results indicate that the regular pattern of traffic speed and parking charge can be illustrated using the proposed model based on system dynamics, and the model infers that reducing the parking supply in core area will increase its congestion level and, under certain parking supply conditions, there exists an interval of possible pricing at which the service reaches a level that is fairly stable.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Jahedul Islam Chowdhury
2018-04-01
Full Text Available The organic Rankine cycle (ORC-based waste heat recovery (WHR system operating under a supercritical condition has a higher potential of thermal efficiency and work output than a traditional subcritical cycle. However, the operation of supercritical cycles is more challenging due to the high pressure in the system and transient behavior of waste heat sources from industrial and automotive engines that affect the performance of the system and the evaporator, which is the most crucial component of the ORC. To take the transient behavior into account, the dynamic model of the evaporator using renowned finite volume (FV technique is developed in this paper. Although the FV model can capture the transient effects accurately, the model has a limitation for real-time control applications due to its time-intensive computation. To capture the transient effects and reduce the simulation time, a novel fuzzy-based nonlinear dynamic evaporator model is also developed and presented in this paper. The results show that the fuzzy-based model was able to capture the transient effects at a data fitness of over 90%, while it has potential to complete the simulation 700 times faster than the FV model. By integrating with other subcomponent models of the system, such as pump, expander, and condenser, the predicted system output and pressure have a mean average percentage error of 3.11% and 0.001%, respectively. These results suggest that the developed fuzzy-based evaporator and the overall ORC-WHR system can be used for transient simulations and to develop control strategies for real-time applications.
Nonlinear dynamic model of a gear-rotor-bearing system considering the flash temperature
Gou, Xiangfeng; Zhu, Lingyun; Qi, Changjun
2017-12-01
The instantaneous flash temperature is an important factor for gears in service. To investigate the effect of the flash temperature of a tooth surface on the dynamics of the spur gear system, a modified nonlinear dynamic model of a gear-rotor-bearing system is established. The factors such as the contact temperature of the tooth surface, time-varying stiffness, tooth surface friction, backlash, the comprehensive transmission error and so on are considered. The flash temperature of a tooth surface of pinion and gear is formulated according to Blok's flash temperature theory. The mathematical expression of the contact temperature of the tooth surface varied with time is derived and the tooth profile deformation caused by the change of the flash temperature of the tooth surface is calculated. The expression of the mesh stiffness varied with the flash temperature of the tooth surface is derived based on Hertz contact theory. The temperature stiffness is proposed and added to the nonlinear dynamic model of the system. The influence of load on the flash temperature of the tooth surface is analyzed in the parameters plane. The variation of the flash temperature of the tooth surface is studied. The numerical results indicate that the calculated method of the flash temperature of the gear tooth surface is effective and it can reflect the rules for the change of gear meshing temperature and sliding of the gear tooth surface. The effects of frequency, backlash, bearing clearance, comprehensive transmission error and time-varying stiffness on the nonlinear dynamics of the system are analyzed according to the bifurcation diagrams, Top Lyapunov Exponent (TLE) spectrums, phase portraits and Poincaré maps. Some nonlinear phenomena such as periodic bifurcation, grazing bifurcation, quasi-periodic bifurcation, chaos and its routes to chaos are investigated and the critical parameters are identified. The results provide an understanding of the system and serve as a useful reference
A Comparative Study of Neural Networks and Fuzzy Systems in Modeling of a Nonlinear Dynamic System
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Metin Demirtas
2011-07-01
Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to compare the neural networks and fuzzy modeling approaches on a nonlinear system. We have taken Permanent Magnet Brushless Direct Current (PMBDC motor data and have generated models using both approaches. The predictive performance of both methods was compared on the data set for model configurations. The paper describes the results of these tests and discusses the effects of changing model parameters on predictive and practical performance. Modeling sensitivity was used to compare for two methods.
Dynamic modelling of balance of plant systems for a pulsed DEMO power plant
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Harrington, C., E-mail: Chris.Harrington@ccfe.ac.uk
2015-10-15
Highlights: • A fully dynamic model of the balance of plant systems for pulsed DEMO is presented. • An operating strategy for handling pulse/dwell transitions has been devised. • Operation of a water-cooled system without energy storage appears feasible. • Steam turbine cycling can be minimised if rotation speed is maintained. - Abstract: The current baseline concept for a European DEMO defines a pulsed reactor producing power for periods of 2–4 h at a time, interrupted by dwell periods of approximately half an hour, potentially leading to cyclic fatigue of the heat transfer system and power generation equipment. Thermal energy storage systems could mitigate pulsing issues; however, the requirements for such a system cannot be defined without first understanding the challenges for pulsed operation, while any system will simultaneously increase the cost and complexity of the balance of plant. This work therefore presents a dynamic model of the primary heat transfer system and associated steam plant for a water-cooled DEMO, without energy storage, capable of simulating pulsed plant operation. An operating regime is defined such that the primary coolant flows continuously throughout the dwell period while the secondary steam flow is reduced. Simulation results show minimised thermal and pressure transients in the primary circuit, and small thermally induced stresses on the steam turbine rotor. If the turbine can be kept spinning to also minimise mechanical cycling, pulsed operation of a water-cooled DEMO without thermal energy storage may be feasible.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Monnin, Maxime; Iung, Benoit; Senechal, Olivier
2011-01-01
Mastering system availability all along the system life cycle is now a critical issue with regards to systems engineering. It is more true for military systems which operate in a battle context. Indeed as they must act in a hostile environment, they can become unavailable due to failures of or damage to the system. In both cases, system regeneration is required to restore its availability. Many approaches based on system modelling have been developed to assess availability. However, very few of them take battlefield damage into account and relevant methods for the model development are missing. In this paper, a modelling method for architecture of weapon system of systems that supports regeneration engineering is proposed. On the one hand, this method relies on a unified failure/damage approach to extend acknowledged availability models. It allows to integrate failures, damages, as well as the possibility of regeneration, into operational availability assessment. Architectures are modelled as a set of operational functions, supported by components that belong to platform (system). Modelling atoms (i.e. elementary units of modelling) for both the architecture components and functions are defined, based on state-space formalism. Monte Carlo method is used to estimate availability through simulation. Availability of the architecture is defined on the basis of the possible states of the required functions for a mission. The states of a function directly depend on the state of the corresponding components (i.e. the components that support the function). Aggregation rules define the state of the function knowing the states of each component. Aggregation is defined by means of combinatorial equations of the component states. The modelling approach is supported by means of stochastic activity network for the models simulation. Results are analysed in terms of graphs of availability for mission's days. Thus, given the simulation results, it is possible to plan combat
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
seyyed mohammad zargar
2018-03-01
Full Text Available Cloud computing is a new method to provide computing resources and increase computing power in organizations. Despite the many benefits this method shares, it has not been universally used because of some obstacles including security issues and has become a concern for IT managers in organization. In this paper, the general definition of cloud computing is presented. In addition, having reviewed previous studies, the researchers identified effective variables on technology acceptance and, especially, cloud computing technology. Then, using DEMATEL technique, the effectiveness and permeability of the variable were determined. The researchers also designed a model to show the existing dynamics in cloud computing technology using system dynamics approach. The validity of the model was confirmed through evaluation methods in dynamics model by using VENSIM software. Finally, based on different conditions of the proposed model, a variety of scenarios were designed. Then, the implementation of these scenarios was simulated within the proposed model. The results showed that any increase in data security, government support and user training can lead to the increase in the adoption and use of cloud computing technology.
Aires, Filipe; Rossow, William B.; Hansen, James E. (Technical Monitor)
2001-01-01
A new approach is presented for the analysis of feedback processes in a nonlinear dynamical system by observing its variations. The new methodology consists of statistical estimates of the sensitivities between all pairs of variables in the system based on a neural network modeling of the dynamical system. The model can then be used to estimate the instantaneous, multivariate and nonlinear sensitivities, which are shown to be essential for the analysis of the feedbacks processes involved in the dynamical system. The method is described and tested on synthetic data from the low-order Lorenz circulation model where the correct sensitivities can be evaluated analytically.
Generic dynamic wind turbine models for power system stability analysis: A comprehensive review
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Honrubia-Escribano, A.; Gómez-Lázaro, E.; Fortmann, J.
2018-01-01
In recent years, international working groups, mainly from the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) and the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC), have made a major effort to develop generic —also known as simplified or standard— dynamic wind turbine models to be used for power...... system stability analysis. These models are required by power system operators to conduct the planning and operation activities of their networks since the use of detailed manufacturer models is not practical. This paper presents a comprehensive review of the work done in this field, based on the results...... obtained by IEC and WECC working groups in the course of their research, which have motivated the publication of the IEC 61400-27 in February 2015. The final published versions of the generic models developed according to the existing four wind turbine technology types are detailed, highlighting...
Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Cimler, Richard; Dolezal, Ondrej; Kuca, Kamil
2016-01-01
Alzheimer's disease (AD) is a slowly progressing neurodegenerative brain disease with irreversible brain effects; it is the most common cause of dementia. With increasing age, the probability of suffering from AD increases. In this research, population growth of the European Union (EU) until the year 2080 and the number of patients with AD are modeled. The aim of this research is to predict the spread of AD in the EU population until year 2080 using a computer simulation. For the simulation of the EU population and the occurrence of AD in this population, a system dynamics modeling approach has been used. System dynamics is a useful and effective method for the investigation of complex social systems. Over the past decades, its applicability has been demonstrated in a wide variety of applications. In this research, this method has been used to investigate the growth of the EU population and predict the number of patients with AD. The model has been calibrated on the population prediction data created by Eurostat. Based on data from Eurostat, the EU population until year 2080 has been modeled. In 2013, the population of the EU was 508 million and the number of patients with AD was 7.5 million. Based on the prediction, in 2040, the population of the EU will be 524 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.1 million. By the year 2080, the EU population will be 520 million and the number of patients with AD will be 13.7 million. System dynamics modeling approach has been used for the prediction of the number of patients with AD in the EU population till the year 2080. These results can be used to determine the economic burden of the treatment of these patients. With different input data, the simulation can be used also for the different regions as well as for different noncontagious disease predictions.
A System Dynamics Modeling of Water Supply and Demand in Las Vegas Valley
Parajuli, R.; Kalra, A.; Mastino, L.; Velotta, M.; Ahmad, S.
2017-12-01
The rise in population and change in climate have posed the uncertainties in the balance between supply and demand of water. The current study deals with the water management issues in Las Vegas Valley (LVV) using Stella, a system dynamics modeling software, to model the feedback based relationship between supply and demand parameters. Population parameters were obtained from Center for Business and Economic Research while historical water demand and conservation practices were modeled as per the information provided by local authorities. The water surface elevation of Lake Mead, which is the prime source of water supply to the region, was modeled as the supply side whereas the water demand in LVV was modeled as the demand side. The study was done from the period of 1989 to 2049 with 1989 to 2012 as the historical one and the period from 2013 to 2049 as the future period. This study utilizes Coupled Model Intercomparison Project data sets (2013-2049) (CMIP3&5) to model different future climatic scenarios. The model simulates the past dynamics of supply and demand, and then forecasts the future water budget for the forecasted future population and future climatic conditions. The results can be utilized by the water authorities in understanding the future water status and hence plan suitable conservation policies to allocate future water budget and achieve sustainable water management.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Lu, Yunfan; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli
2015-01-01
An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lu, Yunfan, E-mail: yunfanlu@yeah.net; Wang, Jun; Niu, Hongli
2015-06-12
An agent-based financial stock price model is developed and investigated by a stochastic interacting epidemic system, which is one of the statistical physics systems and has been used to model the spread of an epidemic or a forest fire. Numerical and statistical analysis are performed on the simulated returns of the proposed financial model. Complexity properties of the financial time series are explored by calculating the correlation dimension and using the modified multiscale entropy method. In order to verify the rationality of the financial model, the real stock market indexes, Shanghai Composite Index and Shenzhen Component Index, are studied in comparison with the simulation data of the proposed model for the different infectiousness parameters. The empirical research reveals that this financial model can reproduce some important features of the real stock markets. - Highlights: • A new agent-based financial price model is developed by stochastic interacting epidemic system. • The structure of the proposed model allows to simulate the financial dynamics. • Correlation dimension and MMSE are applied to complexity analysis of financial time series. • Empirical results show the rationality of the proposed financial model.
Complexified dynamical systems
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Bender, Carl M; Holm, Darryl D; Hook, Daniel W
2007-01-01
Many dynamical systems, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model and the Euler equations for the free rotation of a rigid body, are PT symmetric. The standard and well-known real solutions to such dynamical systems constitute an infinitessimal subclass of the full set of complex solutions. This paper examines a subset of the complex solutions that contains the real solutions, namely those having PT symmetry. The condition of PT symmetry selects out complex solutions that are periodic. (fast track communication)
General method to find the attractors of discrete dynamic models of biological systems
Gan, Xiao; Albert, Réka
2018-04-01
Analyzing the long-term behaviors (attractors) of dynamic models of biological networks can provide valuable insight. We propose a general method that can find the attractors of multilevel discrete dynamical systems by extending a method that finds the attractors of a Boolean network model. The previous method is based on finding stable motifs, subgraphs whose nodes' states can stabilize on their own. We extend the framework from binary states to any finite discrete levels by creating a virtual node for each level of a multilevel node, and describing each virtual node with a quasi-Boolean function. We then create an expanded representation of the multilevel network, find multilevel stable motifs and oscillating motifs, and identify attractors by successive network reduction. In this way, we find both fixed point attractors and complex attractors. We implemented an algorithm, which we test and validate on representative synthetic networks and on published multilevel models of biological networks. Despite its primary motivation to analyze biological networks, our motif-based method is general and can be applied to any finite discrete dynamical system.
General method to find the attractors of discrete dynamic models of biological systems.
Gan, Xiao; Albert, Réka
2018-04-01
Analyzing the long-term behaviors (attractors) of dynamic models of biological networks can provide valuable insight. We propose a general method that can find the attractors of multilevel discrete dynamical systems by extending a method that finds the attractors of a Boolean network model. The previous method is based on finding stable motifs, subgraphs whose nodes' states can stabilize on their own. We extend the framework from binary states to any finite discrete levels by creating a virtual node for each level of a multilevel node, and describing each virtual node with a quasi-Boolean function. We then create an expanded representation of the multilevel network, find multilevel stable motifs and oscillating motifs, and identify attractors by successive network reduction. In this way, we find both fixed point attractors and complex attractors. We implemented an algorithm, which we test and validate on representative synthetic networks and on published multilevel models of biological networks. Despite its primary motivation to analyze biological networks, our motif-based method is general and can be applied to any finite discrete dynamical system.
Nguyen, Gia Luong Huu
Fuel cells can produce electricity with high efficiency, low pollutants, and low noise. With the advent of fuel cell technologies, fuel cell systems have since been demonstrated as reliable power generators with power outputs from a few watts to a few megawatts. With proper equipment, fuel cell systems can produce heating and cooling, thus increased its overall efficiency. To increase the acceptance from electrical utilities and building owners, fuel cell systems must operate more dynamically and integrate well with renewable energy resources. This research studies the dynamic performance of fuel cells and the integration of fuel cells with other equipment in three levels: (i) the fuel cell stack operating on hydrogen and reformate gases, (ii) the fuel cell system consisting of a fuel reformer, a fuel cell stack, and a heat recovery unit, and (iii) the hybrid energy system consisting of photovoltaic panels, fuel cell system, and energy storage. In the first part, this research studied the steady-state and dynamic performance of a high temperature PEM fuel cell stack. Collaborators at Aalborg University (Aalborg, Denmark) conducted experiments on a high temperature PEM fuel cell short stack at steady-state and transients. Along with the experimental activities, this research developed a first-principles dynamic model of a fuel cell stack. The dynamic model developed in this research was compared to the experimental results when operating on different reformate concentrations. Finally, the dynamic performance of the fuel cell stack for a rapid increase and rapid decrease in power was evaluated. The dynamic model well predicted the performance of the well-performing cells in the experimental fuel cell stack. The second part of the research studied the dynamic response of a high temperature PEM fuel cell system consisting of a fuel reformer, a fuel cell stack, and a heat recovery unit with high thermal integration. After verifying the model performance with the
Investigation of a Ball Screw Feed Drive System Based on Dynamic Modeling for Motion Control
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Yi-Cheng Huang
2017-06-01
Full Text Available This paper examines the frequency response relationship between the ball screw nut preload, ball screw torsional stiffness variations and table mass effect for a single-axis feed drive system. Identification for the frequency response of an industrial ball screw drive system is very important for the precision motion when the vibration modes of the system are critical for controller design. In this study, there is translation and rotation modes of a ball screw feed drive system when positioning table is actuated by a servo motor. A lumped dynamic model to study the ball nut preload variation and torsional stiffness of the ball screw drive system is derived first. The mathematical modeling and numerical simulation provide the information of peak frequency response as the different levels of ball nut preload, ball screw torsional stiffness and table mass. The trend of increasing preload will indicate the abrupt peak change in frequency response spectrum analysis in some mode shapes. This study provides an approach to investigate the dynamic frequency response of a ball screw drive system, which provides significant information for better control performance when precise motion control is concerned.
System Dynamics Modeling of interactive cost factors for small modular reactors
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Ahn, Nam Sung; Lee, Keun Dae; Yoon, Suk Ho
2011-01-01
As a part of the Study on Economic Efficiency and Marketability of small modular reactors project, we at Nemo partners NEC consulting corporation were studying the various cost factors on small modular reactors (SMRs). To have a better knowledge of the interaction between the cost factors, System Dynamics Modeling has been developed. This model will contribute to our understanding of the interaction on the major factors effecting on the unit cost of SMRs to the SMRs' market share in the market economics as competition
Modelling and dynamics of a self-sustained electrostatic micro electro mechanical system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kwuimy, C.A. Kitio; Woafo, P.
2009-06-01
This paper deals with the study of a model of self-sustained electrostatic micro Electromechanical system (MEMS). The electrical part contains two nonlinear components: a nonlinear resistance with a negative slope in the current-voltage characteristics and a capacitor having a cubic form as the charge-voltage characteristics. The modal approximation and the finite differences numerical scheme are used to analyze the dynamical behavior of the system: resonant oscillations and bifurcation diagram leading to chaos are observed for some values of the polarization voltage. Hints of applications of the device are given. (author)
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Aldemir, T., E-mail: aldemir.1@osu.ed [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guarro, S. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Mandelli, D. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kirschenbaum, J. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Mangan, L.A. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Bucci, P. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Yau, M. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Ekici, E. [Ohio State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Miller, D.W.; Sun, X. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arndt, S.A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)
2010-10-15
The Markov/cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) and the dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) are two system logic modeling methodologies that have been proposed to address the dynamic characteristics of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems and provide risk-analytical capabilities that supplement those provided by traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for nuclear power plants. Both methodologies utilize a discrete state, multi-valued logic representation of the digital I and C system. For probabilistic quantification purposes, both techniques require the estimation of the probabilities of basic system failure modes, including digital I and C software failure modes, that appear in the prime implicants identified as contributors to a given system event of interest. As in any other system modeling process, the accuracy and predictive value of the models produced by the two techniques, depend not only on the intrinsic features of the modeling paradigm, but also and to a considerable extent on information and knowledge available to the analyst, concerning the system behavior and operation rules under normal and off-nominal conditions, and the associated controlled/monitored process dynamics. The application of the two methodologies is illustrated using a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS) similar to that of an operating pressurized water reactor. This application was carried out to demonstrate how the use of either technique, or both, can facilitate the updating of an existing nuclear power plant PRA model following an upgrade of the instrumentation and control system from analog to digital. Because of scope limitations, the focus of the demonstration of the methodologies was intentionally limited to aspects of digital I and C system behavior for which probabilistic data was on hand or could be generated within the existing project bounds of time and resources. The data used in the probabilistic quantification portion of the
Butschli Dynamic Droplet System
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Armstrong, R.; Hanczyc, M.
2013-01-01
Dynamical oil-water systems such as droplets display lifelike properties and may lend themselves to chemical programming to perform useful work, specifically with respect to the built environment. We present Butschli water-in-oil droplets as a model for further investigation into the development...... reconstructed the Butschli system and observed its life span under a light microscope, observing chemical patterns and droplet behaviors in nearly three hundred replicate experiments. Self-organizing patterns were observed, and during this dynamic, embodied phase the droplets provided a means of introducing...... temporal and spatial order in the system with the potential for chemical programmability. The authors propose that the discrete formation of dynamic droplets, characterized by their lifelike behavior patterns, during a variable window of time (from 30 s to 30 min after the addition of alkaline water...
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Zhang, Hao; Chen, Diyi; Xu, Beibei; Wang, Feifei
2015-01-01
Graphical abstract: Nonlinear dynamic transfer coefficients are introduced to the hydro-turbine governing system. In the process of load reject ion transient, the nonlinear dynamical behaviors of the system are studied in detail. - Highlights: • A novel mathematical model of a hydro-turbine governing system is established. • The process of load rejection transient is considered. • Nonlinear dynamic transfer coefficients are introduced to the system. • The bifurcation diagram with the variable t has better engineering significance. • The nonlinear dynamical behaviors of the system are studied in detail. - Abstract: This article pays attention to the mathematical modeling of a hydro-turbine governing system in the process of load rejection transient. As a pioneer work, the nonlinear dynamic transfer coefficients are introduced in a penstock system. Considering a generator system, a turbine system and a governor system, we present a novel nonlinear dynamical model of a hydro-turbine governing system. Fortunately, for the unchanged of PID parameters, we acquire the stable regions of the governing system in the process of load rejection transient by numerical simulations. Moreover, the nonlinear dynamic behaviors of the governing system are illustrated by bifurcation diagrams, Poincare maps, time waveforms and phase orbits. More importantly, these methods and analytic results will present theoretical groundwork for allowing a hydropower station in the process of load rejection transient
System dynamics modeling of social/political factors in nuclear power plant operations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hansen, K.F.; Turek, M.G.; Eubanks, C.K.
1995-01-01
The safety and performance of nuclear power plants are a function of many technical factors such as initial design, service and maintenance programs, and utility investment in improvements. Safety and performance are also a function of the social/political influences that affect requirements on personnel, practices and procedures, and resource availability. This paper describes a process for constructing models of the social/political influences on plant operations using the system dynamics technique. The model incorporates representation of internal utility actions and decisions as affected by external factors such as public opinion, intervenor actions, safety and economic regulation, and the financial community. The feedback between external agents and plant performance is explicitly modeled. The resulting model can be used to simulate performance under a variety of different external and internal policy choices. In particular, the model can be used to study means of improving performance in response to externally imposed regulations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hummel, J. R.; Christiansen, J. H.
2002-01-01
As modeling and simulation becomes a more important part of the day-to-day activities in industry and government, organizations are being faced with the vexing problem of how to integrate a growing suite of heterogeneous models both within their own organizations and between organizations. The Argonne National Laboratory, which is operated by the University of Chicago for the United States Department of Energy, has developed the Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) to address such problems. DIAS is an object-oriented, subject domain independent framework that is used to integrate legacy or custom-built models and applications. In this paper we will give an overview of the features of DIAS and give examples of how it has been used to integrate models in a number of applications. We shall also describe some of the key supporting DIAS tools that provide seamless interoperability between models and applications
Beltrame, Thomas; Amelard, Robert; Wong, Alexander; Hughson, Richard L
2018-02-01
Physical activity levels are related through algorithms to the energetic demand, with no information regarding the integrity of the multiple physiological systems involved in the energetic supply. Longitudinal analysis of the oxygen uptake (V̇o 2 ) by wearable sensors in realistic settings might permit development of a practical tool for the study of the longitudinal aerobic system dynamics (i.e., V̇o 2 kinetics). This study evaluated aerobic system dynamics based on predicted V̇o 2 data obtained from wearable sensors during unsupervised activities of daily living (μADL). Thirteen healthy men performed a laboratory-controlled moderate exercise protocol and were monitored for ≈6 h/day for 4 days (μADL data). Variables derived from hip accelerometer (ACC HIP ), heart rate monitor, and respiratory bands during μADL were extracted and processed by a validated random forest regression model to predict V̇o 2 . The aerobic system analysis was based on the frequency-domain analysis of ACC HIP and predicted V̇o 2 data obtained during μADL. Optimal samples for frequency domain analysis (constrained to ≤0.01 Hz) were selected when ACC HIP was higher than 0.05 g at a given frequency (i.e., participants were active). The temporal characteristics of predicted V̇o 2 data during μADL correlated with the temporal characteristics of measured V̇o 2 data during laboratory-controlled protocol ([Formula: see text] = 0.82, P system dynamics can be investigated during unsupervised activities of daily living by wearable sensors. Although speculative, these algorithms have the potential to be incorporated into wearable systems for early detection of changes in health status in realistic environments by detecting changes in aerobic response dynamics. NEW & NOTEWORTHY The early detection of subclinical aerobic system impairments might be indicative of impaired physiological reserves that impact the capacity for physical activity. This study is the first to use wearable
Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities
Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)
Daniel Lane; Shima Beigzadeh; Richard Moll
2017-01-01
This research develops and applies a system dynamics (SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities.The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability,resilience,and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental,economic,social,and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat.The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alternative adaptation strategies.The calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alternative strategies.The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown,Prince Edward Island,Canada.The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown-facing increased frequency of severe storms,storm surges,and sea-level rise-provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal environment.This research is presented as part of the International Community-University Research Alliance C-Change project "Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities:Canada and the Caribbean" sponsored by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Resource Centre.
Integrated earth system dynamic modeling for life cycle impact assessment of ecosystem services.
Arbault, Damien; Rivière, Mylène; Rugani, Benedetto; Benetto, Enrico; Tiruta-Barna, Ligia
2014-02-15
Despite the increasing awareness of our dependence on Ecosystem Services (ES), Life Cycle Impact Assessment (LCIA) does not explicitly and fully assess the damages caused by human activities on ES generation. Recent improvements in LCIA focus on specific cause-effect chains, mainly related to land use changes, leading to Characterization Factors (CFs) at the midpoint assessment level. However, despite the complexity and temporal dynamics of ES, current LCIA approaches consider the environmental mechanisms underneath ES to be independent from each other and devoid of dynamic character, leading to constant CFs whose representativeness is debatable. This paper takes a step forward and is aimed at demonstrating the feasibility of using an integrated earth system dynamic modeling perspective to retrieve time- and scenario-dependent CFs that consider the complex interlinkages between natural processes delivering ES. The GUMBO (Global Unified Metamodel of the Biosphere) model is used to quantify changes in ES production in physical terms - leading to midpoint CFs - and changes in human welfare indicators, which are considered here as endpoint CFs. The interpretation of the obtained results highlights the key methodological challenges to be solved to consider this approach as a robust alternative to the mainstream rationale currently adopted in LCIA. Further research should focus on increasing the granularity of environmental interventions in the modeling tools to match current standards in LCA and on adapting the conceptual approach to a spatially-explicit integrated model. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Morselli, Melissa; Terzaghi, Elisa; Di Guardo, Antonio
2018-01-24
Nowadays, there is growing interest in inserting more ecological realism into risk assessment of chemicals. On the exposure evaluation side, this can be done by studying the complexity of exposure in the ecosystem, niche partitioning, e.g. variation of the exposure scenario. Current regulatory predictive approaches, to ensure simplicity and predictive ability, generally keep the scenario as static as possible. This could lead to under or overprediction of chemical exposure depending on the chemical and scenario simulated. To account for more realistic exposure conditions, varying temporally and spatially, additional scenario complexity should be included in currently used models to improve their predictive ability. This study presents two case studies (a terrestrial and an aquatic one) in which some polychlorinated biphenyls (PCBs) were simulated with the SoilPlusVeg and ChimERA models to show the importance of scenario variation in time (biotic and abiotic compartments). The results outlined the importance of accounting for planetary boundary layer variation and vegetation dynamics to accurately predict air concentration changes and the timing of chemical dispersion from the source in terrestrial systems. For the aquatic exercise, the results indicated the need to account for organic carbon forms (particulate and dissolved organic carbon) and vegetation biomass dynamics. In both cases the range of variation was up to two orders of magnitude depending on the congener and scenario, reinforcing the need for incorporating such knowledge into exposure assessment.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Wahyu Sardjono
2013-06-01
Full Text Available Green Base transceiver station (BTS or known as remote BTS is a special BTS with IP technology-based that has a small capacity and takes low power consumption with standard features suitable for use in rural areas. BTS utilizes 100% solar energy as a source of energy. The infrastructure Green BTS is composed of high-tech devices which is able to save energy, environmentally friendly, small and lightweight. The high rate service calls and SMS on green BTS is caused by the absence of competition telecom operators at a site. The solution to this problem needs to be done with system dynamics modeling approach with the aim to establish causality (cause and effect between the variables. The standard target of model pattern which has been changed on system dynamics can be used to demonstrate the behavior of the model between the number of subscribers, the availability of network capacity and ARPU (average revenue per user on the Green BTS site. On the changed standard target model, the actual revenue is placed as the actual event, the target revenue is as a target; the difference between the actual and target revenue is as gap, gap changes are as the pressure on the target and the corrective action taken against revenue as a corrective action. Based on simulation results, the standard model change targets can be developed by adding two negative loops (balancing loop as an alternative solution towards the achievement of revenue targets that have been set.
Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Hansen, A.D.; Iov, F.; Soerensen, Poul.; Cutululis, N.; Jauch, C.; Blaabjerg, F.
2007-08-15
This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risoe-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database built-op and developed during several national research projects, carried out at Risoe DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy and Aalborg University, in the period 2001-2007. The overall objective of these projects was to create a wind turbine model database able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. The main attention in the report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of the following wind turbine concepts: (1) Fixed speed active stall wind turbine concept (2) Variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept (3) Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine
Connolly, Joe; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Kopasakis, George; Woolwine, Kyle
2015-01-01
This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic model for a variable cycle turbofan engine, supersonic inlet, and convergent-divergent nozzle that can be integrated with an aeroelastic vehicle model to create an overall Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) modeling tool. The primary focus of this study is to provide a means to capture relevant thrust dynamics of a full supersonic propulsion system by using relatively simple quasi-one dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods that will allow for accurate control algorithm development and capture the key aspects of the thrust to feed into an APSE model. Previously, propulsion system component models have been developed and are used for this study of the fully integrated propulsion system. An overview of the methodology is presented for the modeling of each propulsion component, with a focus on its associated coupling for the overall model. To conduct APSE studies the described dynamic propulsion system model is integrated into a high fidelity CFD model of the full vehicle capable of conducting aero-elastic studies. Dynamic thrust analysis for the quasi-one dimensional dynamic propulsion system model is presented along with an initial three dimensional flow field model of the engine integrated into a supersonic commercial transport.
Atmospheric emissions modeling of energetic biomass alternatives using system dynamics approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Szarka, N.; University of Concepcion; Kakucs, O.; Wolfbauer, J.; Bezama, A.
2008-01-01
To simulate the quantitative effects of regional biomass alternatives for energetic purpose (BfE) on air pollutant emissions, a system dynamics model was developed and applied for the EuRegion Austrian-Hungarian cross-border area. The dynamic simulation program Vensim R was used to build an overall regional model with economic, social and environmental sectors. Within this model, the here-introduced regional air pollution sub-model (RegAir) includes the important human-made emissions of 10 pollutants resulting from all relevant source sectors within the region investigated. Emissions from activities related to biomass production, transport, conversion and final energy consumption were built in detail. After building and calibrating the RegAir model, seven quantitative test scenarios were defined and implemented into the world. Through the scenarios simulation, effects on air emissions were followed and compared over time. The results of these simulations show a significant reduction of CO 2 emission, especially in cases where fossil fuel displacement in heating devices is achieved on the largest scale. On the contrary, traditional air pollutants increase by most BfE options. The results of the RegAir model simulations of BfE alternatives over two decades provide useful quantifications of various air emissions and identify the less pollutant BfE alternatives in the dynamic context of the relevant air pollution sources of the region. After minor structural modification and appropriate calibration, RegAir can be applied to other regions as well. However, it is stated that, to finally decide on the overall most-appropriate options at a regional level, other environmental as well as economic and social effects must be taken into consideration, being the latter the goal of the mentioned overall regional model which serves as a model frame to the RegAir tool. (author)
Pagano, Alessandro; Pluchinotta, Irene; Giordano, Raffaele; Vurro, Michele
2016-04-01
. Moving in such direction, System Dynamics Modeling (SDM) is a suitable operative approach. The SDM allows taking into account all resilience dimensions in an integrated and dynamic way. Furthermore, it allows to combine predictive and learning functionality through feedback mechanisms, and to foster active involvement of stakeholders in the modelling process. The present paper show some results of ongoing research activities. The main aim of the work is to describe using SDM, the relationships and interdependencies between drinking water supply infrastructures and societies in building the resilience of urban communities in case of natural disasters. Reflections are carried out on the comparison between two major earthquakes in Italy: L'Aquila in 2009 and Emilia Romagna in 2012. The model aims at defining a quantitative tool to assess the evolution of resilience of drinking water supply system. Specifically, it has been used to evaluate the impact of actions and strategies for resilience improvement on the dynamic evolution of the system, thus suggesting the most suitable ones.
Control Theory Concepts Applied to Retail Supply Chain: A System Dynamics Modeling Environment Study
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Balaji Janamanchi
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Control theory concepts have been long used to successfully manage and optimize complex systems. Using system dynamics (SD modeling methodology, which is continuous deterministic simulation modeling methodology, we apply control theory concepts to develop a suitable performance functional (or objective function that optimizes the performance of a retail supply chain. The focus is to develop insights for inventory management to prevent stock-outs and unfilled orders and to fill customer orders at the lowest possible cost to supply chain partners under different scenarios, in a two-player supplier-retailer supply chain. Moderate levels of inventory, defining appropriate performance functional, appear to be crucial in choosing the right policies for managing retail supply chain systems. The study also demonstrated how multiple objectives can be combined in a single performance functional (or objective function by carefully assigning suitable weights to the components of objectives based on their priority and the existence of possible trade off opportunities.
Dynamic model of frequency control in Danish power system with large scale integration of wind power
DEFF Research Database (Denmark)
Basit, Abdul; Hansen, Anca Daniela; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar
2013-01-01
This work evaluates the impact of large scale integration of wind power in future power systems when 50% of load demand can be met from wind power. The focus is on active power balance control, where the main source of power imbalance is an inaccurate wind speed forecast. In this study, a Danish...... power system model with large scale of wind power is developed and a case study for an inaccurate wind power forecast is investigated. The goal of this work is to develop an adequate power system model that depicts relevant dynamic features of the power plants and compensates for load generation...... imbalances, caused by inaccurate wind speed forecast, by an appropriate control of the active power production from power plants....
Orion Active Thermal Control System Dynamic Modeling Using Simulink/MATLAB
Wang, Xiao-Yen J.; Yuko, James
2010-01-01
This paper presents dynamic modeling of the crew exploration vehicle (Orion) active thermal control system (ATCS) using Simulink (Simulink, developed by The MathWorks). The model includes major components in ATCS, such as heat exchangers and radiator panels. The mathematical models of the heat exchanger and radiator are described first. Four different orbits were used to validate the radiator model. The current model results were compared with an independent Thermal Desktop (TD) (Thermal Desktop, PC/CAD-based thermal model builder, developed in Cullimore & Ring (C&R) Technologies) model results and showed good agreement for all orbits. In addition, the Orion ATCS performance was presented for three orbits and the current model results were compared with three sets of solutions- FloCAD (FloCAD, PC/CAD-based thermal/fluid model builder, developed in C&R Technologies) model results, SINDA/FLUINT (SINDA/FLUINT, a generalized thermal/fluid network-style solver ) model results, and independent Simulink model results. For each case, the fluid temperatures at every component on both the crew module and service module sides were plotted and compared. The overall agreement is reasonable for all orbits, with similar behavior and trends for the system. Some discrepancies exist because the control algorithm might vary from model to model. Finally, the ATCS performance for a 45-hr nominal mission timeline was simulated to demonstrate the capability of the model. The results show that the ATCS performs as expected and approximately 2.3 lb water was consumed in the sublimator within the 45 hr timeline before Orion docked at the International Space Station.
Comparison of a nonlinear dynamic model of a piping system to test data
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Blakely, K.D.; Howard, G.E.; Walton, W.B.; Johnson, B.A.; Chitty, D.E.
1983-01-01
Response of a nonlinear finite element model of the Heissdampfreaktor recirculation piping loop (URL) was compared to measured data, representing the physical benchmarking of a nonlinear model. Analysis-test comparisons of piping response are presented for snapback tests that induced extreme nonlinear behavior of the URL system. Nonlinearities in the system are due to twelve swaybraces (pipe supports) that possessed nonlinear force-deflection characteristics. These nonlinearities distorted system damping estimates made by using the half-power bandwidth method on Fourier transforms of measured accelerations, with the severity of distortion increasing with increasing degree of nonlinearity. Time domain methods, which are not so severely affected by the presence of nonlinearities, were used to compute system damping ratios. Nonlinear dynamic analyses were accurately and efficiently performed using the pseudo-force technique and the finite element program MSC/NASTRAN. Measured damping was incorporated into the model for snapback simulations. Acceleration time histories, acceleration Fourier transforms, and swaybrace force time histories of the nonlinear model, plus several linear models, were compared to test measurements. The nonlinear model predicted three-fourths of the measured peak accelerations to within 50%, half of the accelerations to within 25%, and one-fifth of the accelerations to within 10%. This nonlinear model predicted accelerations (in the time and frequency domains) and swaybrace forces much better than did any of the linear models, demonstrating the increased accuracy resulting from properly simulating nonlinear support behavior. In addition, earthquake response comparisons were made between the experimentally validated nonlinear model and a linear model. Significantly lower element stresses were predicted for the nonlinear model, indicating the potential usefulness of nonlinear simulations in piping design assessments. (orig.)
Quantifying Key Climate Parameter Uncertainties Using an Earth System Model with a Dynamic 3D Ocean
Olson, R.; Sriver, R. L.; Goes, M. P.; Urban, N.; Matthews, D.; Haran, M.; Keller, K.
2011-12-01
Climate projections hinge critically on uncertain climate model parameters such as climate sensitivity, vertical ocean diffusivity and anthropogenic sulfate aerosol forcings. Climate sensitivity is defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature response to a doubling of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. Vertical ocean diffusivity parameterizes sub-grid scale ocean vertical mixing processes. These parameters are typically estimated using Intermediate Complexity Earth System Models (EMICs) that lack a full 3D representation of the oceans, thereby neglecting the effects of mixing on ocean dynamics and meridional overturning. We improve on these studies by employing an EMIC with a dynamic 3D ocean model to estimate these parameters. We carry out historical climate simulations with the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model (UVic ESCM) varying parameters that affect climate sensitivity, vertical ocean mixing, and effects of anthropogenic sulfate aerosols. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the likelihood of each parameter combination depends on how well the model simulates surface air temperature and upper ocean heat content. We use a Gaussian process emulator to interpolate the model output to an arbitrary parameter setting. We use Markov Chain Monte Carlo method to estimate the posterior probability distribution function (pdf) of these parameters. We explore the sensitivity of the results to prior assumptions about the parameters. In addition, we estimate the relative skill of different observations to constrain the parameters. We quantify the uncertainty in parameter estimates stemming from climate variability, model and observational errors. We explore the sensitivity of key decision-relevant climate projections to these parameters. We find that climate sensitivity and vertical ocean diffusivity estimates are consistent with previously published results. The climate sensitivity pdf is strongly affected by the prior assumptions, and by the scaling
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
R. Baatz
2018-05-01
Full Text Available Advancing our understanding of Earth system dynamics (ESD depends on the development of models and other analytical tools that apply physical, biological, and chemical data. This ambition to increase understanding and develop models of ESD based on site observations was the stimulus for creating the networks of Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER, Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs, and others. We organized a survey, the results of which identified pressing gaps in data availability from these networks, in particular for the future development and evaluation of models that represent ESD processes, and provide insights for improvement in both data collection and model integration. From this survey overview of data applications in the context of LTER and CZO research, we identified three challenges: (1 widen application of terrestrial observation network data in Earth system modelling, (2 develop integrated Earth system models that incorporate process representation and data of multiple disciplines, and (3 identify complementarity in measured variables and spatial extent, and promoting synergies in the existing observational networks. These challenges lead to perspectives and recommendations for an improved dialogue between the observation networks and the ESD modelling community, including co-location of sites in the existing networks and further formalizing these recommendations among these communities. Developing these synergies will enable cross-site and cross-network comparison and synthesis studies, which will help produce insights around organizing principles, classifications, and general rules of coupling processes with environmental conditions.
A System Dynamics Model to Predict the Human Monocyte Response to Endotoxins
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Enrique Álvarez
2017-08-01
Full Text Available System dynamics is a powerful tool that allows modeling of complex and highly networked systems such as those found in the human immune system. We have developed a model that reproduces how the exposure of human monocytes to lipopolysaccharides (LPSs induces an inflammatory state characterized by high production of tumor necrosis factor alpha (TNFα, which is rapidly modulated to enter into a tolerant state, known as endotoxin tolerance (ET. The model contains two subsystems with a total of six states, seven flows, two auxiliary variables, and 14 parameters that interact through six differential and nine algebraic equations. The parameters were estimated and optimized to obtain a model that fits the experimental data obtained from human monocytes treated with various LPS doses. In contrast to publications on other animal models, stimulation of human monocytes with super-low-dose LPSs did not alter the response to a second LPSs challenge, neither inducing ET, nor enhancing the inflammatory response. Moreover, the model confirms the low production of TNFα and increased levels of C–C motif ligand 2 when monocytes exhibit a tolerant state similar to that of patients with sepsis. At present, the model can help us better understand the ET response and might offer new insights on sepsis diagnostics and prognosis by examining the monocyte response to endotoxins in patients with sepsis.
Baatz, Roland; Sullivan, Pamela L.; Li, Li; Weintraub, Samantha R.; Loescher, Henry W.; Mirtl, Michael; Groffman, Peter M.; Wall, Diana H.; Young, Michael; White, Tim; Wen, Hang; Zacharias, Steffen; Kühn, Ingolf; Tang, Jianwu; Gaillardet, Jérôme; Braud, Isabelle; Flores, Alejandro N.; Kumar, Praveen; Lin, Henry; Ghezzehei, Teamrat; Jones, Julia; Gholz, Henry L.; Vereecken, Harry; Van Looy, Kris
2018-05-01
Advancing our understanding of Earth system dynamics (ESD) depends on the development of models and other analytical tools that apply physical, biological, and chemical data. This ambition to increase understanding and develop models of ESD based on site observations was the stimulus for creating the networks of Long-Term Ecological Research (LTER), Critical Zone Observatories (CZOs), and others. We organized a survey, the results of which identified pressing gaps in data availability from these networks, in particular for the future development and evaluation of models that represent ESD processes, and provide insights for improvement in both data collection and model integration. From this survey overview of data applications in the context of LTER and CZO research, we identified three challenges: (1) widen application of terrestrial observation network data in Earth system modelling, (2) develop integrated Earth system models that incorporate process representation and data of multiple disciplines, and (3) identify complementarity in measured variables and spatial extent, and promoting synergies in the existing observational networks. These challenges lead to perspectives and recommendations for an improved dialogue between the observation networks and the ESD modelling community, including co-location of sites in the existing networks and further formalizing these recommendations among these communities. Developing these synergies will enable cross-site and cross-network comparison and synthesis studies, which will help produce insights around organizing principles, classifications, and general rules of coupling processes with environmental conditions.
Mathematical modeling of alignment dynamics in active motor-filament systems
Swaminathan, Sumanth
The formation of the cytoskeleton, via motor-mediated microtubule self-organization, is an important subject of study in the biological sciences as well as in nonequilibrium, soft matter physics. Accurate modeling of the dynamics is a formidable task as it involves intrinsic nonlinearities, structural anisotropies, nonequilibrium processes, and a broad window of time scales, length scales, and densities. In this thesis, we study the ordering dynamics and pattern formations arising from motor-mediated microtubule self-organization in dilute and semi-dilute filament solutions. In the dilute case, we use a probabilistic model in which microtubules interact through motor induced, inelastic binary collisions. This model shows that initially disordered filament solutions exhibit an ordering transition resulting in the emergence of well aligned rod bundles. We study the existence and dynamic interaction of microtubule bundles analytically and numerically. Our results show a long term attraction and coalescing of bundles indicating a clear coarsening in the system; microtubule bundles concentrate into fewer orientations on a slow logarithmic time scale. In the semi-dilute case, multiple motors can bind a filament to several others and, for a critical motor density, induce a transition to an ordered state with a nonzero mean orientation. We develop a spatially homogeneous, mean-field theory that explicitly accounts for motor forcing and thermal fluctuations which enter into the model as multiplicative and additive noises respectively. Our model further incorporates a force-dependent detachment rate of motors, which in turn affects the mean and the fluctuations of the net force acting on a filament. We demonstrate that the transition to the oriented state changes from second order to first order when the force-dependent detachment becomes important. In our final analysis, we add complex spatial inhomogeneities to our mean field theory. The revised model consists of a system
Improved decision-making on irrigation farming in arid zones using a system dynamics model
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Martin de Wit
2013-11-01
Full Text Available The Sandveld region in the Western Cape is a low rainfall area dominated by agricultural production using groundwater resources. The rise in agricultural production in the Sandveld has led to questions regarding the region's ecological sustainability. We developed a system dynamics model for the Sandveld system which captures land-use change, agricultural production, and groundwater abstraction and recharge. Using this model, we find little evidence that pressures on livelihoods result, either currently or in the immediate future, from ecological feedback effects. The model does indicate that the highest risks are associated with the financial viability of agriculture, in its present form, in the region. With lower margins, a drive towards economies of scale in agricultural production is more likely in the future. This process has had severe implications in some sectors already, with a 39% decrease in the number of potato producers in the Sandveld region between 2003 and 2009. These results highlight that an integrated approach to agricultural, economic and environmental management and planning is needed to capture the economic and ecological complexity and dynamics of the Sandveld system.
Co-simulation of dynamic systems in parallel and serial model configurations
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Sweafford, Trevor; Yoon, Hwan Sik
2013-01-01
Recent advancement in simulation software and computation hardware make it realizable to simulate complex dynamic systems comprised of multiple submodels developed in different modeling languages. The so-called co-simulation enables one to study various aspects of a complex dynamic system with heterogeneous submodels in a cost-effective manner. Among several different model configurations for co-simulation, synchronized parallel configuration is regarded to expedite the simulation process by simulation multiple sub models concurrently on a multi core processor. In this paper, computational accuracies as well as computation time are studied for three different co-simulation frameworks : integrated, serial, and parallel. for this purpose, analytical evaluations of the three different methods are made using the explicit Euler method and then they are applied to two-DOF mass-spring systems. The result show that while the parallel simulation configuration produces the same accurate results as the integrated configuration, results of the serial configuration, results of the serial configuration show a slight deviation. it is also shown that the computation time can be reduced by running simulation in the parallel configuration. Therefore, it can be concluded that the synchronized parallel simulation methodology is the best for both simulation accuracy and time efficiency.
Amin, Majdi Talal
Currently, there is no integrated dynamic simulation program for an energy efficient greenhouse coupled with an aquaponic system. This research is intended to promote the thermal management of greenhouses in order to provide sustainable food production with the lowest possible energy use and material waste. A brief introduction of greenhouses, passive houses, energy efficiency, renewable energy systems, and their applications are included for ready reference. An experimental working scaled-down energy-efficient greenhouse was built to verify and calibrate the results of a dynamic simulation model made using TRNSYS software. However, TRNSYS requires the aid of Google SketchUp to develop 3D building geometry. The simulation model was built following the passive house standard as closely as possible. The new simulation model was then utilized to design an actual greenhouse with Aquaponics. It was demonstrated that the passive house standard can be applied to improve upon conventional greenhouse performance, and that it is adaptable to different climates. The energy-efficient greenhouse provides the required thermal environment for fish and plant growth, while eliminating the need for conventional cooling and heating systems.
Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of an Isolated Hybrid Power System in a Rural Area of China
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Bojian Jiang
2018-01-01
Full Text Available In some rural areas in the northwest of China, people are suffering from not only the voltage drop due to long distance transmission but also the power outages due to remoteness and poorly maintained grid. In recent few years, the price of solar energy has been reduced drastically every year in China due to the government policy on renewable energy. In the near future, isolated hybrid power systems for home use could be affordable and used by residences in these rural areas. Thus, it is necessary to design a hybrid power system based on local load and weather condition to check system feasibility and expected performance. It includes load simulation, system sizing, and dynamic system modeling and simulation. This paper firstly introduces current development of renewable energy in China and then goes through the sizing, modeling, and simulation of the system design for a typical remote home in China and finally discusses the system’s availability based on the simulation results. In this paper, the NASA website is the source for weather data, and BEopt is used to generate load data. During system modeling, the MPPT algorithm is much simpler designed than the complex incremental method. A soft starter is adopted with the diesel generator for stability. The charge controller of the battery storage provides external command to the MPPT and diesel PID controller to prevent the battery storage from overcharging. The rms value of the fundamental load voltage is used in the voltage control loop of the inverter.
Dynamic modeling of gas turbines in integrated gasification fuel cell systems
Maclay, James Davenport
2009-12-01
Solid oxide fuel cell-gas turbine (SOFC-GT) hybrid systems for use in integrated gasification fuel cell (IGFC) systems operating on coal will stretch existing fossil fuel reserves, generate power with less environmental impact, while having a cost of electricity advantage over most competing technologies. However, the dynamic performance of a SOFC-GT in IGFC applications has not been previously studied in detail. Of particular importance is how the turbo-machinery will be designed, controlled and operated in such applications; this is the focus of the current work. Perturbation and dynamic response analyses using numerical SimulinkRTM models indicate that compressor surge is the predominant concern for safe dynamic turbo-machinery operation while shaft over-speed and excessive turbine inlet temperatures are secondary concerns. Fuel cell temperature gradients and anode-cathode differential pressures were found to be the greatest concerns for safe dynamic fuel cell operation. Two control strategies were compared, that of constant gas turbine shaft speed and constant fuel cell temperature, utilizing a variable speed gas turbine. Neither control strategy could eliminate all vulnerabilities during dynamic operation. Constant fuel cell temperature control ensures safe fuel cell operation, while constant speed control does not. However, compressor surge is more likely with constant fuel cell temperature control than with constant speed control. Design strategies that provide greater surge margin while utilizing constant fuel cell temperature control include increasing turbine design mass flow and decreasing turbine design inlet pressure, increasing compressor design pressure ratio and decreasing compressor design mass flow, decreasing plenum volume, decreasing shaft moment of inertia, decreasing fuel cell pressure drop, maintaining constant compressor inlet air temperature. However, these strategies in some cases incur an efficiency penalty. A broad comparison of cycles
Brubaker, Douglas; Barbaro, Alethea; R Chance, Mark; Mesiano, Sam
2016-08-19
Progesterone promotes uterine relaxation and is essential for the maintenance of pregnancy. Withdrawal of progesterone activity and increased inflammation within the uterine tissues are key triggers for parturition. Progesterone actions in myometrial cells are mediated by two progesterone receptor (PR) isoforms, PR-A and PR-B, that function as ligand-activated transcription factors. PR-B mediates relaxatory actions of progesterone, in part, by decreasing myometrial cell responsiveness to pro-inflammatory stimuli. These same pro-inflammatory stimuli promote the expression of PR-A which inhibits the anti-inflammatory activity of PR-B. Competitive interaction between the progesterone receptors then augments myometrial responsiveness to pro-inflammatory stimuli. The interaction between PR-B transcriptional activity and inflammation in the pregnancy myometrium is examined using a dynamical systems model in which quiescence and labor are represented as phase-space equilibrium points. Our model shows that PR-B transcriptional activity and the inflammatory load determine the stability of the quiescent and laboring phenotypes. The model is tested using published transcriptome datasets describing the mRNA abundances in the myometrium before and after the onset of labor at term. Surrogate transcripts were selected to reflect PR-B transcriptional activity and inflammation status. The model coupling PR-B activity and inflammation predicts contractile status (i.e., laboring or quiescent) with high precision and recall and outperforms uncoupled single and two-gene classifiers. Linear stability analysis shows that phase space bifurcations exist in our model that may reflect the phenotypic states of the pregnancy uterus. The model describes a possible tipping point for the transition of the quiescent to the contractile laboring phenotype. Our model describes the functional interaction between the PR-A:PR-B hypothesis and tissue level inflammation in the pregnancy uterus and is a
Erickson, Richard A.; Thogmartin, Wayne E.; Russell, Robin E.; Diffendorfer, James E.; Szymanski, Jennifer A.
2014-01-01
Bats are ecologically and economically important species because they consume insects, transport nutrients, and pollinate flowers. Many species of bats, including those in the Myotis genus, are facing population decline and increased extinction risk. Despite these conservation concerns, few models exist for providing insight into the population dynamics of bats in a spatially explicit context. We developed a model for bats by considering the stage-structured colonial life history of Myotis bats with their annual migration behavior. This model provided insight into network dynamics. We specifically focused on two Myotis species living in the eastern United States: the Indiana bat (M. sodalis), which is a Federally listed endangered species, and the little brown bat (M. lucifugus), which is under consideration for listing as an endangered species. We found that multiple equilibria exist for the local, migratory subpopulations even though the total population was constant. These equilibria suggest the location and magnitude of stressors such as White-nose Syndrome, meteorological phenomena, or impacts of wind turbines on survival influence system dynamics and risk of population extirpation in difficult to predict ways.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Papadopoulos, Alessandro Vittorio, E-mail: alessandro.papadopoulos@control.lth.se [Lund University, Department of Automatic Control (Sweden); Leva, Alberto, E-mail: alberto.leva@polimi.it [Politecnico di Milano, Dipartimento di Elettronica, Informazione e Bioingegneria (Italy)
2015-06-15
The presence of different time scales in a dynamic model significantly hampers the efficiency of its simulation. In multibody systems the fact is particularly relevant, as the mentioned time scales may be very different, due, for example, to the coexistence of mechanical components controled by electronic drive units, and may also appear in conjunction with significant nonlinearities. This paper proposes a systematic technique, based on the principles of dynamic decoupling, to partition a model based on the time scales that are relevant for the particular simulation studies to be performed and as transparently as possible for the user. In accordance with said purpose, peculiar to the technique is its neat separation into two parts: a structural analysis of the model, which is general with respect to any possible simulation scenario, and a subsequent decoupled integration, which can conversely be (easily) tailored to the study at hand. Also, since the technique does not aim at reducing but rather at partitioning the model, the state space and the physical interpretation of the dynamic variables are inherently preserved. Moreover, the proposed analysis allows us to define some novel indices relative to the separability of the system, thereby extending the idea of “stiffness” in a way that is particularly keen to its use for the improvement of simulation efficiency, be the envisaged integration scheme monolithic, parallel, or even based on cosimulation. Finally, thanks to the way the analysis phase is conceived, the technique is naturally applicable to both linear and nonlinear models. The paper contains a methodological presentation of the proposed technique, which is related to alternatives available in the literature so as to evidence the peculiarities just sketched, and some application examples illustrating the achieved advantages and motivating the major design choice from an operational viewpoint.
Comprehensive solutions to the Bloch equations and dynamical models for open two-level systems
Skinner, Thomas E.
2018-01-01
The Bloch equation and its variants constitute the fundamental dynamical model for arbitrary two-level systems. Many important processes, including those in more complicated systems, can be modeled and understood through the two-level approximation. It is therefore of widespread relevance, especially as it relates to understanding dissipative processes in current cutting-edge applications of quantum mechanics. Although the Bloch equation has been the subject of considerable analysis in the 70 years since its inception, there is still, perhaps surprisingly, significant work that can be done. This paper extends the scope of previous analyses. It provides a framework for more fully understanding the dynamics of dissipative two-level systems. A solution is derived that is compact, tractable, and completely general, in contrast to previous results. Any solution of the Bloch equation depends on three roots of a cubic polynomial that are crucial to the time dependence of the system. The roots are typically only sketched out qualitatively, with no indication of their dependence on the physical parameters of the problem. Degenerate roots, which modify the solutions, have been ignored altogether. Here the roots are obtained explicitly in terms of a single real-valued root that is expressed as a simple function of the system parameters. For the conventional Bloch equation, a simple graphical representation of this root is presented that makes evident the explicit time dependence of the system for each point in the parameter space. Several intuitive, visual models of system dynamics are developed. A Euclidean coordinate system is identified in which any generalized Bloch equation is separable, i.e., the sum of commuting rotation and relaxation operators. The time evolution in this frame is simply a rotation followed by relaxation at modified rates that play a role similar to the standard longitudinal and transverse rates. These rates are functions of the applied field, which
A nuclear fuel cycle system dynamic model for spent fuel storage options
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Brinton, Samuel; Kazimi, Mujid
2013-01-01
Highlights: • Used nuclear fuel management requires a dynamic system analysis study due to its socio-technical complexity. • Economic comparison of local, regional, and national storage options is limited due to the public financial information. • Local and regional options of used nuclear fuel management are found to be the most economic means of storage. - Abstract: The options for used nuclear fuel storage location and affected parameters such as economic liabilities are currently a focus of several high level studies. A variety of nuclear fuel cycle system analysis models are available for such a task. The application of nuclear fuel cycle system dynamics models for waste management options is important to life-cycle impact assessment. The recommendations of the Blue Ribbon Committee on America’s Nuclear Future led to increased focus on long periods of spent fuel storage [1]. This motivated further investigation of the location dependency of used nuclear fuel in the parameters of economics, environmental impact, and proliferation risk. Through a review of available literature and interactions with each of the programs available, comparisons of post-reactor fuel storage and handling options will be evaluated based on the aforementioned parameters and a consensus of preferred system metrics and boundary conditions will be provided. Specifically, three options of local, regional, and national storage were studied. The preliminary product of this research is the creation of a system dynamics tool known as the Waste Management Module (WMM) which provides an easy to use interface for education on fuel cycle waste management economic impacts. Initial results of baseline cases point to positive benefits of regional storage locations with local regional storage options continuing to offer the lowest cost
Modeling the 3-DOF dynamics of an electrodynamic Maglev suspension system with a passive sled
Boeij, de J.; Gutierrez, H.M.; Agarwal, R.; Steinbuch, M.
2003-01-01
A model that describes the 3-DOF dynamics of a passively levitated electro-dynamic maglevsystem is presented. The model is based on the flux-current-force interactions and the geometricrelationships between the levitation coils and the permanent magnets on the sled. The model ispresented in a
EARLY DYNAMICAL EVOLUTION OF THE SOLAR SYSTEM: PINNING DOWN THE INITIAL CONDITIONS OF THE NICE MODEL
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Batygin, Konstantin; Brown, Michael E.
2010-01-01
In the recent years, the 'Nice' model of solar system formation has attained an unprecedented level of success in reproducing much of the observed orbital architecture of the solar system by evolving the planets to their current locations from a more compact configuration. Within the context of this model, the formation of the classical Kuiper Belt requires a phase during which the ice giants have a high eccentricity. An outstanding question of this model is the initial configuration from which the solar system started out. Recent work has shown that multi-resonant initial conditions can serve as good candidates, as they naturally prevent vigorous type-II migration. In this paper, we use analytical arguments, as well as self-consistent numerical N-body simulations to identify fully resonant initial conditions, whose dynamical evolution is characterized by an eccentric phase of the ice giants, as well as planetary scattering. We find a total of eight such initial conditions. Four of these primordial states are compatible with the canonical 'Nice' model, while the others imply slightly different evolutions. The results presented here should prove useful in further development of a comprehensive model for solar system formation.
A system dynamic model for production and consumption policy in Iran oil and gas sector
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kiani, Behdad; Ali Pourfakhraei, Mohammad
2010-01-01
A system dynamic model is presented, which considers the feedback between supply and demand and oil revenue of the existing system in Iran considering different sectors of the economy. Also the export of the oil surplus and the injection of the gas surplus into the oil reservoirs are seen in the model by establishing a balance between supply and demand. In this model the counter-effects and existing system feedbacks between supply and demand and oil revenue can be seen considering different sectors of the economy. As a result, the effects of oil and gas policies in different scenarios for different sectors of Iran's economy together with the counter-effects of energy consumption and oil revenue are examined. Three scenarios, which show the worst, base and ideal cases, are considered to find future trends of major variables such as seasonal gas consumption in power plants, seasonal injected gas in oil reservoirs, economic growth in the industrial sector, oil consumption in the transportation sector, industrial gas consumption and exported gas. For example, it is shown that the exported gas will reach between 500 and 620 million cubic-meter per day in different scenarios and export revenues can reach up to $500 billion by 2025. - Research Highlights: →A system dynamic model analyzing the feedback between supply, demand and oil revenue is built. →The export of the oil surplus and the injection of the gas surplus into oil reservoirs are modeled. →Effects of oil and gas policies in different scenarios are examined for Iran's economy. →Counter-effects of energy consumption and oil revenue are examined. →Exported gas will reach between 500 and 620 million cubic-meter per day in different scenarios. →Export revenues can reach up to $500 billion by 2025.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kruglova, O.; Mulder, F.M.; Picken, S.J.; Stride, J.; Kearley, G.J.
2004-01-01
Discotic molecules are composed of an aromatic core surrounded by aliphatic chains. These molecules are of importance because they can form columns in which the π orbitals of neighbouring molecules overlap leading to conductivity along the column. These materials find applications in molecular electronics and recently--with record quantum efficiencies--in photo voltaics. Because the correlation time of the electron (or hole) hopping is in the picosecond region, molecular dynamics on this timescale is of central importance. We have recently shown that these dynamics, which is easily measured by quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS), can be understood with a rather simple 'short single-column' model via an MD simulation that reproduces the measured QENS spectra. Before progressing to the larger technologically important systems we must understand any fortuitous error cancellations that may cause the simple model to reproduce the experimental signal so well. By taking a very simple discotic, hexamethyltriphenylene (HMT), we are able to compare QENS data with three types of models: simple column, cluster and periodic. It transpires that the cluster model cannot properly accommodate inter column interactions, and a fairly modest periodic model overcomes this problem and the tendency for un-physical harmonic modes along the column
System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.
Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu
2015-09-15
With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
Hosseini, Mohammad; Jiang, Yu; Wu, Poliang; Berlin, Richard B; Ren, Shangping; Sha, Lui
2016-11-01
There is a great divide between rural and urban areas, particularly in medical emergency care. Although medical best practice guidelines exist and are in hospital handbooks, they are often lengthy and difficult to apply clinically. The challenges are exaggerated for doctors in rural areas and emergency medical technicians (EMT) during patient transport. In this paper, we propose the concept of distributed executable medical best practice guidance systems to assist adherence to best practice from the time that a patient first presents at a rural hospital, through diagnosis and ambulance transfer to arrival and treatment at a regional tertiary hospital center. We codify complex medical knowledge in the form of simplified distributed executable disease automata, from the thin automata at rural hospitals to the rich automata in the regional center hospitals. However, a main challenge is how to efficiently and safely synchronize distributed best practice models as the communication among medical facilities, devices, and professionals generates a large number of messages. This complex problem of patient diagnosis and transport from rural to center facility is also fraught with many uncertainties and changes resulting in a high degree of dynamism. A critically ill patient's medical conditions can change abruptly in addition to changes in the wireless bandwidth during the ambulance transfer. Such dynamics have yet to be addressed in existing literature on telemedicine. To address this situation, we propose a pathophysiological model-driven message exchange communication architecture that ensures the real-time and dynamic requirements of synchronization among distributed emergency best practice models are met in a reliable and safe manner. Taking the signs, symptoms, and progress of stroke patients transported across a geographically distributed healthcare network as the motivating use case, we implement our communication system and apply it to our developed best practice
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Nagai, Haruyasu; Yamazawa, Hiromi
1997-01-01
It is advantageous for an emergency response system to have a forecast function to provide a time margin for countermeasures in case of a nuclear accident. We propose to apply an atmospheric dynamic model PHYSIC (Prognostic HYdroStatic model Including turbulence Closure model) as a meteorological forecast model in the emergency system. The model uses GPV data which are the output of the numerical weather forecast model of Japan Meteorological Agency as the initial and boundary conditions. The roles of PHYSIC are the interface between GPV data and the emergency response system and the forecast of local atmospheric phenomena within the model domain. This paper presents a scheme to use PHYSIC to forecast local wind and its performance. Horizontal grid number of PHYSIC is fixed to 50 x 50, whereas the mesh and domain sizes are determined in consideration of topography causing local winds at an objective area. The model performance was examined for the introduction of GPV data through initial and boundary conditions and the predictability of local wind field and atmospheric stability. The model performance was on an acceptable level as the forecast model. It was also recognized that improvement of cloud calculation was necessary in simulating atmospheric stability. (author)
Freebairn, Louise; Rychetnik, Lucie; Atkinson, Jo-An; Kelly, Paul; McDonnell, Geoff; Roberts, Nick; Whittall, Christine; Redman, Sally
2017-10-02
Evidence-based decision-making is an important foundation for health policy and service planning decisions, yet there remain challenges in ensuring that the many forms of available evidence are considered when decisions are being made. Mobilising knowledge for policy and practice is an emergent process, and one that is highly relational, often messy and profoundly context dependent. Systems approaches, such as dynamic simulation modelling can be used to examine both complex health issues and the context in which they are embedded, and to develop decision support tools. This paper reports on the novel use of participatory simulation modelling as a knowledge mobilisation tool in Australian real-world policy settings. We describe how this approach combined systems science methodology and some of the core elements of knowledge mobilisation best practice. We describe the strategies adopted in three case studies to address both technical and socio-political issues, and compile the experiential lessons derived. Finally, we consider the implications of these knowledge mobilisation case studies and provide evidence for the feasibility of this approach in policy development settings. Participatory dynamic simulation modelling builds on contemporary knowledge mobilisation approaches for health stakeholders to collaborate and explore policy and health service scenarios for priority public health topics. The participatory methods place the decision-maker at the centre of the process and embed deliberative methods and co-production of knowledge. The simulation models function as health policy and programme dynamic decision support tools that integrate diverse forms of evidence, including research evidence, expert knowledge and localised contextual information. Further research is underway to determine the impact of these methods on health service decision-making.
Dynamics of global vegetation biomass simulated by the integrated Earth System Model
Mao, J.; Shi, X.; Di Vittorio, A. V.; Thornton, P. E.; Piao, S.; Yang, X.; Truesdale, J. E.; Bond-Lamberty, B. P.; Chini, L. P.; Thomson, A. M.; Hurtt, G. C.; Collins, W.; Edmonds, J.
2014-12-01
The global vegetation biomass stores huge amounts of carbon and is thus important to the global carbon budget (Pan et al., 2010). For the past few decades, different observation-based estimates and modeling of biomass in the above- and below-ground vegetation compartments have been comprehensively conducted (Saatchi et al., 2011; Baccini et al., 2012). However, uncertainties still exist, in particular for the simulation of biomass magnitude, tendency, and the response of biomass to climatic conditions and natural and human disturbances. The recently successful coupling of the integrated Earth System Model (iESM) (Di Vittorio et al., 2014; Bond-Lamberty et al., 2014), which links the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM), Global Land-use Model (GLM), and Community Earth System Model (CESM), offers a great opportunity to understand the biomass-related dynamics in a fully-coupled natural and human modeling system. In this study, we focus on the systematic analysis and evaluation of the iESM simulated historical (1850-2005) and future (2006-2100) biomass changes and the response of the biomass dynamics to various impact factors, in particular the human-induced Land Use/Land Cover Change (LULCC). By analyzing the iESM simulations with and without the interactive LULCC feedbacks, we further study how and where the climate feedbacks affect socioeconomic decisions and LULCC, such as to alter vegetation carbon storage. References Pan Y et. al: A large and persistent carbon sink in the World's forests. Science 2011, 333:988-993. Saatchi SS et al: Benchmark map of forest carbon stocks in tropical regions across three continents. Proc Natl Acad Sci 2011, 108:9899-9904. Baccini A et al: Estimated carbon dioxide emissions from tropical deforestation improved by carbon-density maps. Nature Clim Change 2012, 2:182-185. Di Vittorio AV et al: From land use to land cover: restoring the afforestation signal in a coupled integrated assessment-earth system model and the implications for
Behr, Joshua G.; Diaz, Rafael
Non-urgent Emergency Department utilization has been attributed with increasing congestion in the flow and treatment of patients and, by extension, conditions the quality of care and profitability of the Emergency Department. Interventions designed to divert populations to more appropriate care may be cautiously received by operations managers due to uncertainty about the impact an adopted intervention may have on the two values of congestion and profitability. System Dynamics (SD) modeling and simulation may be used to measure the sensitivity of these two, often-competing, values of congestion and profitability and, thus, provide an additional layer of information designed to inform strategic decision making.
Dynamical Systems for Creative Technology
van Amerongen, J.
2010-01-01
Dynamical Systems for Creative Technology gives a concise description of the physical properties of electrical, mechanical and hydraulic systems. Emphasis is placed on modelling the dynamical properties of these systems. By using a system’s approach it is shown that a limited number of mathematical
Wang, Hao; Zhang, Kai; Chen, Junhua; Wang, Zhifeng; Li, Guijun; Yang, Yuqi
2018-05-01
Taxis are an important component of urban passenger transport. Research on the daily dispatching of taxis and the utility of governmental management is important for the improvement of passenger travel, taxi driver income and environmental impacts. However, urban taxi management is a complex and dynamic system that is affected by many factors, and positive/negative feedback relationships and nonlinear interactions exist between each subsystem and variable. Therefore, conventional research methods can hardly depict its characteristics comprehensively. To bridge this gap, this paper develops a system dynamics model of urban taxi management, in which the empty-loaded rate and total demand are selected as key factors affecting taxi dispatching, and the impacts of taxi fares on driver income and travel demand are taken into account. After the validation of the model, taxi operations data derived from a prior analysis of origin-destination data of Beijing taxis are used as input for the model to simulate the taxi market in Beijing. Finally, economic and environmental implications are provided for the government to optimise policies on taxi management. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Li, Qiang; Zhang, Wenjuan; Li, Huiquan; He, Peng
2017-01-01
China announced its promise on CO_2 emission peak. When and what level of CO_2 emission peak China's primary aluminum industry will reach is in suspense. In this paper, a system dynamic model is established, with five subsystems of economy development, primary aluminum production, secondary aluminum production, CO_2 emission intensity and policies making involved. The model is applied to examine potential CO_2 emission trends of China's primary aluminum industry in next fifteen years with three scenarios of “no new policies”, “13th five-year plan” and “additional policies”. Simulation results imply that: merely relying on rapid expansion of domestic scarps recycling and reuse could not mitigate CO_2 emission continuously. Combination of energy-saving technology application and electrolytic technology innovation, as well as promoting hydropower utilization in primary aluminum industry are necessary for long term low-carbon development. From a global prospective, enhancing international cooperation on new primary aluminum capacity construction in other countries, especially with rich low-carbon energy, could bring about essential CO_2 emission for both China's and global primary aluminum industry. - Highlights: • A system dynamic model is established for future CO_2 emission trend of China's primary aluminum industry. • Three potential policy scenarios are simulated. • The impacts of potential policies implication on the CO_2 emission trend are discussed.
A dynamic model for beam tube vacuum effects on the SSC cryogenic system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carcagno, R.H.; Schiesser, W.E.; Shih, H.J.; Xu, X.; Yuecel, A.
1992-01-01
The dynamic interaction between the beam-gas scattering induced energy deposition and the SSC cryogenic system is studied by integrating a cryogenic system dynamic simulator with an adsorption model and a beam-gas scattering and energy deposition model. Simulation results are obtained for a 1km long SSC arc section where the beam tube pressure in one of the dipoles is increased up to 150 times its nominal operating pressure. The beam-gas scattering induced heat loads arising from such high pressure perturbations can be very high locally but do not overload the cryogenic system. They are more likely to induce a magnet quench as they result in coil temperatures that largely exceed the desired operating limit. Simulations are also carried out for the case where a large external heat load of 1W/m is imposed on the coldmass of a half-cell in the section. Results show that the coldmass temperatures rise significantly with the added heat load but the energy deposition in the cold mass due to beam-gas scattering remains low despite the increase in the beam tube temperature
A dynamic model for beam tube vacuum effects on the SSC cryogenic system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Carcagno, R.H.; Schiesser, W.E.; Shih, H.J.; Xu, X.; Yuecel, A.
1992-03-01
The dynamic interaction between the beam-gas scattering induced energy deposition and the SSC cryogenic system is studied by integrating a cryogenic system dynamic simulator with an adsorption model and a beam-gas scattering and energy deposition model. Simulation results are obtained for a 1 km long SSC arc section where the beam tube pressure in one of the dipoles in increased up to 150 times its nominal operating pressure. The beam-gas scattering induced heat loads arising from such high pressure perturbations can be very locally but do not overload the cryogenic system. They are more likely to induce a magnet quench as they result in coil temperatures that largely exceed the desired operating limit. Simulations are also carried out for the case where a large external heat load of 1 W/m is imposed on the coldmass of a half-cell in the section. Results show that the coldmass temperatures rise significantly with the added heat load but the energy deposition in the coldmass due to beam-gas scattering remains low despite the increase in the beam tube temperature
Nanaeda, Kimihiro; Mueller, Fabian; Brouwer, Jacob; Samuelsen, Scott
Operating strategies of solid oxide fuel cell (SOFC) combined heat and power (CHP) systems are developed and evaluated from a utility, and end-user perspective using a fully integrated SOFC-CHP system dynamic model that resolves the physical states, thermal integration and overall efficiency of the system. The model can be modified for any SOFC-CHP system, but the present analysis is applied to a hotel in southern California based on measured electric and heating loads. Analysis indicates that combined heat and power systems can be operated to benefit both the end-users and the utility, providing more efficient electric generation as well as grid ancillary services, namely dispatchable urban power. Design and operating strategies considered in the paper include optimal sizing of the fuel cell, thermal energy storage to dispatch heat, and operating the fuel cell to provide flexible grid power. Analysis results indicate that with a 13.1% average increase in price-of-electricity (POE), the system can provide the grid with a 50% operating range of dispatchable urban power at an overall thermal efficiency of 80%. This grid-support operating mode increases the operational flexibility of the SOFC-CHP system, which may make the technology an important utility asset for accommodating the increased penetration of intermittent renewable power.
Respiratory system dynamical mechanical properties: modeling in time and frequency domain.
Carvalho, Alysson Roncally; Zin, Walter Araujo
2011-06-01
The mechanical properties of the respiratory system are important determinants of its function and can be severely compromised in disease. The assessment of respiratory system mechanical properties is thus essential in the management of some disorders as well as in the evaluation of respiratory system adaptations in response to an acute or chronic process. Most often, lungs and chest wall are treated as a linear dynamic system that can be expressed with differential equations, allowing determination of the system's parameters, which will reflect the mechanical properties. However, different models that encompass nonlinear characteristics and also multicompartments have been used in several approaches and most specifically in mechanically ventilated patients with acute lung injury. Additionally, the input impedance over a range of frequencies can be assessed with a convenient excitation method allowing the identification of the mechanical characteristics of the central and peripheral airways as well as lung periphery impedance. With the evolution of computational power, the airway pressure and flow can be recorded and stored for hours, and hence continuous monitoring of the respiratory system mechanical properties is already available in some mechanical ventilators. This review aims to describe some of the most frequently used models for the assessment of the respiratory system mechanical properties in both time and frequency domain.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Kansuporn eSriyudthsak
2016-05-01
Full Text Available The high-throughput acquisition of metabolome data is greatly anticipated for the complete understanding of cellular metabolism in living organisms. A variety of analytical technologies have been developed to acquire large-scale metabolic profiles under different biological or environmental conditions. Time series data are useful for predicting the most likely metabolic pathways because they provide important information regarding the accumulation of metabolites, which implies causal relationships in the metabolic reaction network. Considerable effort has been undertaken to utilize these data for constructing a mathematical model merging system properties and quantitatively characterizing a whole metabolic system in toto. However, there are technical difficulties between benchmarking the provision and utilization of data. Although hundreds of metabolites can be measured, which provide information on the metabolic reaction system, simultaneous measurement of thousands of metabolites is still challenging. In addition, it is nontrivial to logically predict the dynamic behaviors of unmeasurable metabolite concentrations without sufficient information on the metabolic reaction network. Yet, consolidating the advantages of advancements in both metabolomics and mathematical modeling remain to be accomplished. This review outlines the conceptual basis of and recent advances in technologies in both the research fields. It also highlights the potential for constructing a large-scale mathematical model by estimating model parameters from time series metabolome data in order to comprehensively understand metabolism at the systems level.
Energy demand projections based on an uncertain dynamic system modeling approach
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dong, S.
2000-01-01
Today, China has become the world's second largest pollution source of CO 2 . Owing to coal-based energy consumption, it is estimated that 85--90% of the SO 2 and CO 2 emission of China results from coal use. With high economic growth and increasing environmental concerns, China's energy consumption in the next few decades has become an issue of active concern. Forecasting of energy demand over long periods, however, is getting more complex and uncertain. It is believed that the economic and energy systems are chaotic and nonlinear. Traditional linear system modeling, used mostly in energy demand forecasts, therefore, is not a useful approach. In view of uncertainty and imperfect information about future economic growth and energy development, an uncertain dynamic system model, which has the ability to incorporate and absorb the nature of an uncertain system with imperfect or incomplete information, is developed. Using the model, the forecasting of energy demand in the next 25 years is provided. The model predicts that China's energy demand in 2020 will be about 2,700--3,000 Mtce, coal demand 3,500 Mt, increasing by 128% and 154%, respectively, compared with that of 1995
Sriyudthsak, Kansuporn; Shiraishi, Fumihide; Hirai, Masami Yokota
2016-01-01
The high-throughput acquisition of metabolome data is greatly anticipated for the complete understanding of cellular metabolism in living organisms. A variety of analytical technologies have been developed to acquire large-scale metabolic profiles under different biological or environmental conditions. Time series data are useful for predicting the most likely metabolic pathways because they provide important information regarding the accumulation of metabolites, which implies causal relationships in the metabolic reaction network. Considerable effort has been undertaken to utilize these data for constructing a mathematical model merging system properties and quantitatively characterizing a whole metabolic system in toto. However, there are technical difficulties between benchmarking the provision and utilization of data. Although, hundreds of metabolites can be measured, which provide information on the metabolic reaction system, simultaneous measurement of thousands of metabolites is still challenging. In addition, it is nontrivial to logically predict the dynamic behaviors of unmeasurable metabolite concentrations without sufficient information on the metabolic reaction network. Yet, consolidating the advantages of advancements in both metabolomics and mathematical modeling remain to be accomplished. This review outlines the conceptual basis of and recent advances in technologies in both the research fields. It also highlights the potential for constructing a large-scale mathematical model by estimating model parameters from time series metabolome data in order to comprehensively understand metabolism at the systems level.
System Dynamics Model and Simulation of Employee Work-Family Conflict in the Construction Industry
Wu, Guangdong; Duan, Kaifeng; Zuo, Jian; Yang, Jianlin; Wen, Shiping
2016-01-01
The construction industry is a demanding work environment where employees’ work-family conflict is particularly prominent. This conflict has a significant impact on job and family satisfaction and performance of employees. In order to analyze the dynamic evolution of construction industry employee’s work-family conflict between work and family domains, this paper constructs a bi-directional dynamic model framework of work-family conflict by referring to the relevant literature. Consequently, a system dynamics model of employee’s work-family conflict in the construction industry is established, and a simulation is conducted. The simulation results indicate that construction industry employees experience work interference with family conflict (WIFC) levels which are significantly greater than the family interference with work conflict (FIWC) levels. This study also revealed that improving work flexibility and organizational support can have a positive impact on the satisfaction and performance of construction industry employees from a work and family perspective. Furthermore, improving family support can only significantly improve employee job satisfaction. PMID:27801857
System Dynamics Model and Simulation of Employee Work-Family Conflict in the Construction Industry
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Guangdong Wu
2016-10-01
Full Text Available The construction industry is a demanding work environment where employees’ work-family conflict is particularly prominent. This conflict has a significant impact on job and family satisfaction and performance of employees. In order to analyze the dynamic evolution of construction industry employee’s work-family conflict between work and family domains, this paper constructs a bi-directional dynamic model framework of work-family conflict by referring to the relevant literature. Consequently, a system dynamics model of employee’s work-family conflict in the construction industry is established, and a simulation is conducted. The simulation results indicate that construction industry employees experience work interference with family conflict (WIFC levels which are significantly greater than the family interference with work conflict (FIWC levels. This study also revealed that improving work flexibility and organizational support can have a positive impact on the satisfaction and performance of construction industry employees from a work and family perspective. Furthermore, improving family support can only significantly improve employee job satisfaction.
System Dynamics Model and Simulation of Employee Work-Family Conflict in the Construction Industry.
Wu, Guangdong; Duan, Kaifeng; Zuo, Jian; Yang, Jianlin; Wen, Shiping
2016-10-28
The construction industry is a demanding work environment where employees' work-family conflict is particularly prominent. This conflict has a significant impact on job and family satisfaction and performance of employees. In order to analyze the dynamic evolution of construction industry employee's work-family conflict between work and family domains, this paper constructs a bi-directional dynamic model framework of work-family conflict by referring to the relevant literature. Consequently, a system dynamics model of employee's work-family conflict in the construction industry is established, and a simulation is conducted. The simulation results indicate that construction industry employees experience work interference with family conflict (WIFC) levels which are significantly greater than the family interference with work conflict (FIWC) levels. This study also revealed that improving work flexibility and organizational support can have a positive impact on the satisfaction and performance of construction industry employees from a work and family perspective. Furthermore, improving family support can only significantly improve employee job satisfaction.
A system dynamics model for stock and flow of tritium in fusion power plant
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Kasada, Ryuta, E-mail: r-kasada@iae.kyoto-u.ac.jp [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Kwon, Saerom [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Tokai-mura, Naka-gun, Ibaraki-ken 319-1195 (Japan); Konishi, Satoshi [Institute of Advanced Energy, Kyoto University, Gokasho, Uji, Kyoto 611-0011 (Japan); Sakamoto, Yoshiteru; Yamanishi, Toshihiko; Tobita, Kenji [Japan Atomic Energy Agency, Rokkasho-mura, Kamikita-gun, Aomori-ken 039-3212 (Japan)
2015-10-15
Highlights: • System dynamics model of tritium fuel cycle was developed for analyzing stock and flow of tritium in fusion power plants. • Sensitivity of tritium build-up to breeding ratio parameters has been assessed to two plant concepts having 3 GW and 1.5 GW fusion power. • D-D start-up absolutely without initial loading of tritium is possible for both of the 3 GW and 1.5 GW fusion power plant concepts. • Excess stock of tritium is generated by the steady state operation with the value of tritium breeding ratio over unity. - Abstract: In order to analyze self-efficiency of tritium fuel cycle (TFC) and share the systems thinking of TFC among researchers and engineers in the vast area of fusion reactor technology, we develop a system dynamics (SD) TFC model using a commercial software STELLA. The SD-TFC model is illustrated as a pipe diagram which consists of tritium stocks, such as plasma, fuel clean up, isotope separation, fueling with storage and blanket, and pipes connecting among them. By using this model, we survey a possibility of D-D start-up without initial loading of tritium on two kinds of fusion plant having different plasma parameters. The D-D start-up scenario can reduce the necessity of initial loading of tritium through the production in plasma by D-D reaction and in breeding blanket by D-D neutron. The model is also used for considering operation scenario to avoid excess stock of tritium which must be produced at tritium breeding ratio over unity.
Khatiwada, K. R.; Nepal, S.; Panthi, J., Sr.; Shrestha, M.
2015-12-01
Hydrological modelling plays an important role in understanding hydrological processes of a catchment. In the context of climate change, the understanding of hydrological characteristic of the catchment is very vital to understand how the climate change will affect the hydrological regime. This research facilitates in better understanding of the hydrological system dynamics of a himalayan mountainous catchment in western Nepal. The Karnali River, longest river flowing inside Nepal, is one of the three major basins of Nepal, having the area of 45269 sq. km. is unique. The basin has steep topography and high mountains to the northern side. The 40% of the basin is dominated by forest land while other land cover are: grass land, bare rocky land etc. About 2% of the areas in basin is covered by permanent glacier apart from that about 12% of basin has the snow and ice cover. There are 34 meteorological stations distributed across the basin. A process oriented distributed J2000 hydrologial model has been applied to understand the hydrological system dynamics. The model application provides distributed output of various hydrological components. The J2000 model applies Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) as a modelling entity. With 6861 HRU and 1010 reaches, the model was calibrated (1981-1999) and validated (2000-2004) at a daily scale using split-sample test. The model is able to capture the overall hydrological dynamics well. The rising limbs and recession limbs are simulated equally and with satisfactory ground water conditions. Based on the graphical and statistical evaluation of the model performance the model is able to simulate hydrological processes fairly well. Calibration shows that Nash Sutcliffe efficiency is 0.91, coefficient of determination is 0.92 Initial observation shows that during the pre-monsoon season(March to May) the glacial runoff is 25% of the total discharge while in the monsoon(June to September) season it is only 13%. The surface runoff
Aalaei, Amin; Davoudpour, Hamid
2012-11-01
This article presents designing a new mathematical model for integrating dynamic cellular manufacturing into supply chain system with an extensive coverage of important manufacturing features consideration of multiple plants location, multi-markets allocation, multi-period planning horizons with demand and part mix variation, machine capacity, and the main constraints are demand of markets satisfaction in each period, machine availability, machine time-capacity, worker assignment, available time of worker, production volume for each plant and the amounts allocated to each market. The aim of the proposed model is to minimize holding and outsourcing costs, inter-cell material handling cost, external transportation cost, procurement & maintenance and overhead cost of machines, setup cost, reconfiguration cost of machines installation and removal, hiring, firing and salary worker costs. Aimed to prove the potential benefits of such a design, presented an example is shown using a proposed model.
System dynamics model developement for R and D budget allocation strategy
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Kwack, S. M.; Kim, D. H.; Lee, Y. S.; Jung, M. T.
2003-01-01
A computer simulation model was developed for R and D budget allocation problems that usually contain very complex and non-linear social issues. The System Dynamics approach was employed, which is proper to complex and non-linear social problem modeling. An issue of budget allocation to each step in five research areas was analyzed for an application example. The base scenario, that assumes to allocate a large portion of budget to demonstration step, was found to have a weakness in long-term sense. To overcome this weakness, some other better alternatives were recommended through the analysis. In addition, this paper suggests the ways to utilize the updated model in the future
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Lehoucq, Richard B.; Segalman, Daniel Joseph; Hetmaniuk, Ulrich L. (University of Washington, Seattle, WA); Dohrmann, Clark R.
2009-10-01
Advanced computing hardware and software written to exploit massively parallel architectures greatly facilitate the computation of extremely large problems. On the other hand, these tools, though enabling higher fidelity models, have often resulted in much longer run-times and turn-around-times in providing answers to engineering problems. The impediments include smaller elements and consequently smaller time steps, much larger systems of equations to solve, and the inclusion of nonlinearities that had been ignored in days when lower fidelity models were the norm. The research effort reported focuses on the accelerating the analysis process for structural dynamics though combinations of model reduction and mitigation of some factors that lead to over-meshing.
Dynamic modeling of genetic networks using genetic algorithm and S-system.
Kikuchi, Shinichi; Tominaga, Daisuke; Arita, Masanori; Takahashi, Katsutoshi; Tomita, Masaru
2003-03-22
The modeling of system dynamics of genetic networks, metabolic networks or signal transduction cascades from time-course data is formulated as a reverse-problem. Previous studies focused on the estimation of only network structures, and they were ineffective in inferring a network structure with feedback loops. We previously proposed a method to predict not only the network structure but also its dynamics using a Genetic Algorithm (GA) and an S-system formalism. However, it could predict only a small number of parameters and could rarely obtain essential structures. In this work, we propose a unified extension of the basic method. Notable improvements are as follows: (1) an additional term in its evaluation function that aims at eliminating futile parameters; (2) a crossover method called Simplex Crossover (SPX) to improve its optimization ability; and (3) a gradual optimization strategy to increase the number of predictable parameters. The proposed method is implemented as a C program called PEACE1 (Predictor by Evolutionary Algorithms and Canonical Equations 1). Its performance was compared with the basic method. The comparison showed that: (1) the convergence rate increased about 5-fold; (2) the optimization speed was raised about 1.5-fold; and (3) the number of predictable parameters was increased about 5-fold. Moreover, we successfully inferred the dynamics of a small genetic network constructed with 60 parameters for 5 network variables and feedback loops using only time-course data of gene expression.
Merging spatially variant physical process models under an optimized systems dynamics framework.
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Cain, William O. (University of Texas at Austin, Austin, TX); Lowry, Thomas Stephen; Pierce, Suzanne A.; Tidwell, Vincent Carroll
2007-10-01
The complexity of water resource issues, its interconnectedness to other systems, and the involvement of competing stakeholders often overwhelm decision-makers and inhibit the creation of clear management strategies. While a range of modeling tools and procedures exist to address these problems, they tend to be case specific and generally emphasize either a quantitative and overly analytic approach or present a qualitative dialogue-based approach lacking the ability to fully explore consequences of different policy decisions. The integration of these two approaches is needed to drive toward final decisions and engender effective outcomes. Given these limitations, the Computer Assisted Dispute Resolution system (CADRe) was developed to aid in stakeholder inclusive resource planning. This modeling and negotiation system uniquely addresses resource concerns by developing a spatially varying system dynamics model as well as innovative global optimization search techniques to maximize outcomes from participatory dialogues. Ultimately, the core system architecture of CADRe also serves as the cornerstone upon which key scientific innovation and challenges can be addressed.
Fuzzy parametric uncertainty analysis of linear dynamical systems: A surrogate modeling approach
Chowdhury, R.; Adhikari, S.
2012-10-01
Uncertainty propagation engineering systems possess significant computational challenges. This paper explores the possibility of using correlated function expansion based metamodelling approach when uncertain system parameters are modeled using Fuzzy variables. In particular, the application of High-Dimensional Model Representation (HDMR) is proposed for fuzzy finite element analysis of dynamical systems. The HDMR expansion is a set of quantitative model assessment and analysis tools for capturing high-dimensional input-output system behavior based on a hierarchy of functions of increasing dimensions. The input variables may be either finite-dimensional (i.e., a vector of parameters chosen from the Euclidean space RM) or may be infinite-dimensional as in the function space CM[0,1]. The computational effort to determine the expansion functions using the alpha cut method scales polynomially with the number of variables rather than exponentially. This logic is based on the fundamental assumption underlying the HDMR representation that only low-order correlations among the input variables are likely to have significant impacts upon the outputs for most high-dimensional complex systems. The proposed method is integrated with a commercial Finite Element software. Modal analysis of a simplified aircraft wing with Fuzzy parameters has been used to illustrate the generality of the proposed approach. In the numerical examples, triangular membership functions have been used and the results have been validated against direct Monte Carlo simulations.
Integrated decision-making about housing, energy and wellbeing: a qualitative system dynamics model.
Macmillan, Alexandra; Davies, Michael; Shrubsole, Clive; Luxford, Naomi; May, Neil; Chiu, Lai Fong; Trutnevyte, Evelina; Bobrova, Yekatherina; Chalabi, Zaid
2016-03-08
The UK government has an ambitious goal to reduce carbon emissions from the housing stock through energy efficiency improvements. This single policy goal is a strong driver for change in the housing system, but comes with positive and negative "unintended consequences" across a broad range of outcomes for health, equity and environmental sustainability. The resulting policies are also already experiencing under-performance through a failure to consider housing as a complex system. This research aimed to move from considering disparate objectives of housing policies in isolation to mapping the links between environmental, economic, social and health outcomes as a complex system. We aimed to support a broad range of housing policy stakeholders to improve their understanding of housing as a complex system through a collaborative learning process. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop a qualitative causal theory linking housing, energy and wellbeing. Qualitative interviews were followed by two interactive workshops to develop the model, involving representatives from national and local government, housing industries, non-government organisations, communities and academia. More than 50 stakeholders from 37 organisations participated. The process resulted in a shared understanding of wellbeing as it relates to housing; an agreed set of criteria against which to assess to future policy options; and a comprehensive set of causal loop diagrams describing the housing, energy and wellbeing system. The causal loop diagrams cover seven interconnected themes: community connection and quality of neighbourhoods; energy efficiency and climate change; fuel poverty and indoor temperature; household crowding; housing affordability; land ownership, value and development patterns; and ventilation and indoor air pollution. The collaborative learning process and the model have been useful for shifting the thinking of a wide range of housing stakeholders towards a more
Dynamic Modeling, Control, and Analysis of a Solar Water Pumping System for Libya
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Muamer M. Shebani
2017-01-01
Full Text Available In recent years, one of the suitable solar photovoltaic (PV applications is a water pumping system. The simplest solar PV pumping system consists of PV array, DC-DC converter, DC motor, and water pump. In this paper, water pumping system sizing for Libya is evaluated based on a daily demand using HOMER software, and dynamic modeling of a solar PV water pumping system using a Permanent Magnet DC (PMDC motor is presented in Matlab/Simulink environment. The system performance with maximum power point tracking (MPPT based on Fractional Open Circuit Voltage (FOCV is evaluated with and without a battery storage system. In some applications, a rated voltage is needed to connect a PMDC motor to a PV array through a DC-DC converter and in other applications the input voltage can vary. The evaluation of the system is based on the performance during a change in solar irradiation. Using Matlab/Simulink, simulation results are assessed to see the efficiency of the system when it is operating at a specific speed or at the MPPT. The results show that an improvement in the system efficiency can be achieved when the PMDC motor is running at a specific speed rather than at the peak PV power point.
Developing a system dynamics model to analyse environmental problem in construction site
Haron, Fatin Fasehah; Hawari, Nurul Nazihah
2017-11-01
This study aims to develop a system dynamics model at a construction site to analyse the impact of environmental problem. Construction sites may cause damages to the environment, and interference in the daily lives of residents. A proper environmental management system must be used to reduce pollution, enhance bio-diversity, conserve water, respect people and their local environment, measure performance and set targets for the environment and sustainability. This study investigates the damaging impact normally occur during the construction stage. Environmental problem will cause costly mistake in project implementation, either because of the environmental damages that are likely to arise during project implementation, or because of modification that may be required subsequently in order to make the action environmentally acceptable. Thus, findings from this study has helped in significantly reducing the damaging impact towards environment, and improve the environmental management system performance at construction site.
Design and Optimization of Intelligent Service Robot Suspension System Using Dynamic Model
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Choi, Seong Hoon; Park, Tae Won; Lee, Soo Ho; Jung, Sung Pil; Jun, Kab Jin; Yoon, J. W.
2010-01-01
Recently, an intelligent service robot is being developed for use in guiding and providing information to visitors about the building at public institutions. The intelligent robot has a sensor at the bottom to recognize its location. Four wheels, which are arranged in the form of a lozenge, support the robot. This robot cannot be operated on uneven ground because its driving parts are attached to its main body that contains the important internal components. Continuous impact with the ground can change the precise positions of the components and weaken the connection between each structural part. In this paper, the design of the suspension system for such a robot is described. The dynamic model of the robot is created, and the driving characteristics of the robot with the designed suspension system are simulated. Additionally, the suspension system is optimized to reduce the impact for the robot components
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Linliang Guo
2017-04-01
Full Text Available To satisfy the validation requirements of flight control law for advanced aircraft, a wind tunnel based virtual flight testing has been implemented in a low speed wind tunnel. A 3-degree-of-freedom gimbal, ventrally installed in the model, was used in conjunction with an actively controlled dynamically similar model of aircraft, which was equipped with the inertial measurement unit, attitude and heading reference system, embedded computer and servo-actuators. The model, which could be rotated around its center of gravity freely by the aerodynamic moments, together with the flow field, operator and real time control system made up the closed-loop testing circuit. The model is statically unstable in longitudinal direction, and it can fly stably in wind tunnel with the function of control augmentation of the flight control laws. The experimental results indicate that the model responds well to the operator’s instructions. The response of the model in the tests shows reasonable agreement with the simulation results. The difference of response of angle of attack is less than 0.5°. The effect of stability augmentation and attitude control law was validated in the test, meanwhile the feasibility of virtual flight test technique treated as preliminary evaluation tool for advanced flight vehicle configuration research was also verified.
Topology of sustainable management in dynamical Earth system models with desirable states
Heitzig, J.; Kittel, T.
2015-03-01
To keep the Earth system in a desirable region of its state space, such as the recently suggested "tolerable environment and development window", "planetary boundaries", or "safe (and just) operating space", one not only needs to understand the quantitative internal dynamics of the system and the available options for influencing it (management), but also the structure of the system's state space with regard to certain qualitative differences. Important questions are: which state space regions can be reached from which others with or without leaving the desirable region? Which regions are in a variety of senses "safe" to stay in when management options might break away, and which qualitative decision problems may occur as a consequence of this topological structure? In this article, as a complement to the existing literature on optimal control which is more focussed on quantitative optimization and is much applied in both the engineering and the integrated assessment literature, we develop a mathematical theory of the qualitative topology of the state space of a dynamical system with management options and desirable states. We suggest a certain terminology for the various resulting regions of the state space and perform a detailed formal classification of the possible states with respect to the possibility of avoiding or leaving the undesired region. Our results indicate that before performing some form of quantitative optimization, the sustainable management of the Earth system may require decisions of a more discrete type that come in the form of several dilemmata, e.g., choosing between eventual safety and uninterrupted desirability, or between uninterrupted safety and increasing flexibility. We illustrate the concepts and dilemmata with conceptual models from classical mechanics, climate science, ecology, economics, and coevolutionary Earth system modelling and discuss their potential relevance for the climate and sustainability debate.
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
Tinggui Chen
2013-01-01
Full Text Available Complex engineering system optimization usually involves multiple projects or tasks. On the one hand, dependency modeling among projects or tasks highlights structures in systems and their environments which can help to understand the implications of connectivity on different aspects of system performance and also assist in designing, optimizing, and maintaining complex systems. On the other hand, multiple projects or tasks are either happening at the same time or scheduled into a sequence in order to use common resources. In this paper, we propose a dynamic intelligent decision approach to dependency modeling of project tasks in complex engineering system optimization. The approach takes this decision process as a two-stage decision-making problem. In the first stage, a task clustering approach based on modularization is proposed so as to find out a suitable decomposition scheme for a large-scale project. In the second stage, according to the decomposition result, a discrete artificial bee colony (ABC algorithm inspired by the intelligent foraging behavior of honeybees is developed for the resource constrained multiproject scheduling problem. Finally, a certain case from an engineering design of a chemical processing system is utilized to help to understand the proposed approach.
A CONCEPTUAL SYSTEMS DYNAMICS MODEL OF RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT ACTIVITIES IN SOUTH AFRICA
Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)
S.S. Grobbelaar
2012-01-01
Full Text Available
ENGLISH ABSTRACT: Research and Development (R&D is one of the key sub-functions of a National System of Innovation (NSI. It is the primary point of entry for new scientific development and a key focus for industrial innovation. Recent trends show evidence of disinvestments and decay of South Africa’s R&D capacity. The problem investigated in this study is the delayed effect and influence R&D investment has on the system’s ability to produce R&D output. System Dynamics modelling is an excellent tool to assess a system’s ability to adjust to change and the impact of new decisions that have to be made. The conceptual design of a System Dynamics model of R&D activities is presented. The theoretical underpinning and main assumptions made in deriving and developing the model are also discussed.
AFRIKAANSE OPSOMMING: Navorsing en Ontwikkeling (N&O is een van die sleutelsub-funksies van ‘n Nasionale Stelsel van Innovasie (NSI. Dit is die primêre toegangspunt vir nuwe wetenskaplike ontwikkeling en ‘n sleutelfokus vir industriële innovasie. Onlangse neigings lewer bewyse van disinvestering en agteruitgang in Suid-Afrika se N&Okapasiteit. Die probleem wat in hierdie studie ondersoek word, is die vertraagde effek en invloed wat N&O-investering op die stelsel se vermoë het om N&O-uitsette te lewer. Stelseldinamikamodellering is ‘n uitstekende gereedskapstuk om ‘n stelsel se vermoë om aan te pas by verandering te takseer en die impak van nuwe besluite wat geneem moet word te toets. Die konseptuele ontwerp van ‘n Stelseldinamikamodel van N&O-aktiwiteite word voorgehou. Die teoretiese onderbou en die hoofaannames wat gemaak is in die afleiding en ontwikkeling van die model word ook bespreek.
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Dyson, Brian; Chang, N.-B.
2005-01-01
Both planning and design of municipal solid waste management systems require accurate prediction of solid waste generation. Yet achieving the anticipated prediction accuracy with regard to the generation trends facing many fast-growing regions is quite challenging. The lack of complete historical records of solid waste quantity and quality due to insufficient budget and unavailable management capacity has resulted in a situation that makes the long-term system planning and/or short-term expansion programs intangible. To effectively handle these problems based on limited data samples, a new analytical approach capable of addressing socioeconomic and environmental situations must be developed and applied for fulfilling the prediction analysis of solid waste generation with reasonable accuracy. This study presents a new approach - system dynamics modeling - for the prediction of solid waste generation in a fast-growing urban area based on a set of limited samples. To address the impact on sustainable development city wide, the practical implementation was assessed by a case study in the city of San Antonio, Texas (USA). This area is becoming one of the fastest-growing regions in North America due to the economic impact of the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA). The analysis presents various trends of solid waste generation associated with five different solid waste generation models using a system dynamics simulation tool - Stella[reg]. Research findings clearly indicate that such a new forecasting approach may cover a variety of possible causative models and track inevitable uncertainties down when traditional statistical least-squares regression methods are unable to handle such issues
Glaese, John R.; Tobbe, Patrick A.
1986-01-01
The Space Station Mechanism Test Bed consists of a hydraulically driven, computer controlled six degree of freedom (DOF) motion system with which docking, berthing, and other mechanisms can be evaluated. Measured contact forces and moments are provided to the simulation host computer to enable representation of orbital contact dynamics. This report describes the development of a generalized math model which represents the relative motion between two rigid orbiting vehicles. The model allows motion in six DOF for each body, with no vehicle size limitation. The rotational and translational equations of motion are derived. The method used to transform the forces and moments from the sensor location to the vehicles' centers of mass is also explained. Two math models of docking mechanisms, a simple translational spring and the Remote Manipulator System end effector, are presented along with simulation results. The translational spring model is used in an attempt to verify the simulation with compensated hardware in the loop results.
Cimler, Richard; Tomaskova, Hana; Kuhnova, Jitka; Dolezal, Ondrej; Pscheidl, Pavel; Kuca, Kamil
2018-02-01
Alzheimer's disease is one of the most common mental illnesses. It is posited that more than 25 % of the population is affected by some mental disease during their lifetime. Treatment of each patient draws resources from the economy concerned. Therefore, it is important to quantify the potential economic impact. Agent-based, system dynamics and numerical approaches to dynamic modeling of the population of the European Union and its patients with Alzheimer's disease are presented in this article. Simulations, their characteristics, and the results from different modeling tools are compared. The results of these approaches are compared with EU population growth predictions from the statistical office of the EU by Eurostat. The methodology of a creation of the models is described and all three modeling approaches are compared. The suitability of each modeling approach for the population modeling is discussed. In this case study, all three approaches gave us the results corresponding with the EU population prediction. Moreover, we were able to predict the number of patients with AD and, based on the modeling method, we were also able to monitor different characteristics of the population. Copyright© Bentham Science Publishers; For any queries, please email at epub@benthamscience.org.
Dynamic modeling and simulation of the superconducting super collider cryogenic helium system
International Nuclear Information System (INIS)
Hartzog, D.G.; Fox, V.G.; Mathias, P.M.; Nahmias, D.; McAshan, M.; Carcagno, R.
1989-01-01
To study the operation of the Superconducting Super Collider (SSC) cryogenic system during transient operating conditions, they have developed and programmed in FORTRAN, a time-dependent, nonlinear, homogeneous, lumped-parameter simulation model of the SSC cryogenic system. This dynamic simulator has a modular structure so that process flowsheet modifications can be easily accommodated with minimal recoding. It uses the LSODES integration package to advance the solution in time. For helium properties it uses Air Products implementation of the standard thermodynamic model developed by the NBS. Two additional simplified helium thermodynamic models developed by Air Products are available as options to reduce computation time. To facilitate the interpretation of output, they have linked the simulator to the speakeasy conversational language. The authors present a flowsheet of the process simulated, and the material and energy balances used in the engineering models. They then show simulation results for three transient operating scenarios: startup of the refrigeration system from standby to full load; the loss of 4K refrigeration caused by the tripping of one of two parallel compressors in a sector; and a full-field quench of a single magnet half-cell. They discuss the response of the fluid within the cryogenic circuits during these scenarios. 14 refs., 19 figs., 2 tabs
A 3D dynamical model of the colliding winds in binary systems
Parkin, E. R.; Pittard, J. M.
2008-08-01
We present a three-dimensional (3D) dynamical model of the orbital-induced curvature of the wind-wind collision region in binary star systems. Momentum balance equations are used to determine the position and shape of the contact discontinuity between the stars, while further downstream the gas is assumed to behave ballistically. An Archimedean spiral structure is formed by the motion of the stars, with clear resemblance to high-resolution images of the so-called `pinwheel nebulae'. A key advantage of this approach over grid or smoothed particle hydrodynamic models is its significantly reduced computational cost, while it also allows the study of the structure obtained in an eccentric orbit. The model is relevant to symbiotic systems and γ-ray binaries, as well as systems with O-type and Wolf-Rayet stars. As an example application, we simulate the X-ray emission from hypothetical O+O and WR+O star binaries, and describe a method of ray tracing through the 3D spiral structure to account for absorption by the circumstellar material in the system. Such calculations may be easily adapted to study observations at wavelengths ranging from the radio to γ-ray.
A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using a system dynamics model
Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)
Yoo, J. K. [Systemix Company, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, T. S. [Korea Electric Power Research Institute (Korea, Republic of)
2003-07-01
The purpose of this study is to develop a system dynamics model for the assessment of organizational and human factors in the nuclear power plant safety. Previous studies are classified into two major approaches. One is the engineering approach such as ergonomics and Probabilistic Safety Assessment (PSA). The other is socio-psychology one. Both have contributed to find organizational and human factors and increased nuclear safety However, since these approaches assume that the relationship among factors is independent they do not explain the interactions between factors or variables in NPP's. To overcome these restrictions, a system dynamics model, which can show causal relations between factors and quantify organizational and human factors, has been developed. Operating variables such as degree of leadership, adjustment of number of employee, and workload in each department, users can simulate various situations in nuclear power plants in the organization side. Through simulation, user can get an insight to improve safety in plants and to find managerial tools in the organization and human side.
A quantitative assessment of organizational factors affecting safety using system dynamics model</