Volume Dynamics Propulsion System Modeling for Supersonics Vehicle Research

Science.gov (United States)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph W.; Paxson, Daniel E.; Ma, Peter

2010-01-01

Under the NASA Fundamental Aeronautics Program the Supersonics Project is working to overcome the obstacles to supersonic commercial flight. The proposed vehicles are long slim body aircraft with pronounced aero-servo-elastic modes. These modes can potentially couple with propulsion system dynamics; leading to performance challenges such as aircraft ride quality and stability. Other disturbances upstream of the engine generated from atmospheric wind gusts, angle of attack, and yaw can have similar effects. In addition, for optimal propulsion system performance, normal inlet-engine operations are required to be closer to compressor stall and inlet unstart. To study these phenomena an integrated model is needed that includes both airframe structural dynamics as well as the propulsion system dynamics. This paper covers the propulsion system component volume dynamics modeling of a turbojet engine that will be used for an integrated vehicle Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic model and for propulsion efficiency studies.

Aggregated Wind Park Models for Analysing Power System Dynamics

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Poeller, Markus; Achilles, Sebastian [DIgSILENT GmbH, Gomaringen (Germany)

2003-11-01

The increasing amount of wind power generation in European power systems requires stability analysis considering interaction between wind-farms and transmission systems. Dynamics introduced by dispersed wind generators at the distribution level can usually be neglected. However, large on- and offshore wind farms have a considerable influence to power system dynamics and must definitely be considered for analyzing power system dynamics. Compared to conventional power stations, wind power plants consist of a large number of generators of small size. Therefore, representing every wind generator individually increases the calculation time of dynamic simulations considerably. Therefore, model aggregation techniques should be applied for reducing calculation times. This paper presents aggregated models for wind parks consisting of fixed or variable speed wind generators.

The System Dynamics Model User Sustainability Explorer (SD-MUSE): a user-friendly tool for interpreting system dynamic models

Science.gov (United States)

System Dynamics (SD) models are useful for holistic integration of data to evaluate indirect and cumulative effects and inform decisions. Complex SD models can provide key insights into how decisions affect the three interconnected pillars of sustainability. However, the complexi...

REMOTE SYNTHESIS AND CONTROL INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY OF SYSTEM-DYNAMIC MODELS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. V. Masloboev

2015-07-01

Full Text Available The general line of research is concerned with development of information technologies and computer simulation tools for management information and analytical support of complex semistructured systems. Regional socio-economic systems are consideredas a representative of this system type. Investigation is carried out within the bounds of development strategy implementation of the Arctic zone of the Russian Federation and national safety until 2020 in the Murmansk region, specifically under engineering of high end information infrastructure for innovation and security control problem-solving of regional development. Research methodology consists of system dynamics modeling method, distributed information system engineering technologies, pattern-based modeling and design techniques. The work deals with development of toolkit for decision-making information support problem-solving in the field of innovation security management of regional economics. For that purpose a system-dynamic models suite of innovation process standard components and information technology for remote formation and control of innovation business simulation models under research have been developed. Designed toolkit provides innovation security index dynamics forecasting and innovation business effectiveness of regional economics. Information technology is implemented within the bounds of thin client architecture and is intended for simulation models design process automation of complex systems. Technology implementation software tools provide pattern-based system-dynamic models distributed formation and simulation control of innovation processes. The technology provides availability and reusability index enhancement of information support facilities in application to innovation process simulation at the expense of distributed access to innovation business simulation modeling tools and model synthesis by the reusable components, simulating standard elements of innovation

Advances in dynamic network modeling in complex transportation systems

CERN Document Server

Ukkusuri, Satish V

2013-01-01

This book focuses on the latest in dynamic network modeling, including route guidance and traffic control in transportation systems and other complex infrastructure networks. Covers dynamic traffic assignment, flow modeling, mobile sensor deployment and more.

System dynamics models as decision-making tools in agritourism

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jere Jakulin Tadeja

2016-12-01

Full Text Available Agritourism as a type of niche tourism is a complex and softly defined phaenomenon. The demands for fast and integrated decision regarding agritourism and its interconnections with environment, economy (investments, traffic and social factors (tourists is urgent. Many different methodologies and methods master softly structured questions and dilemmas with global and local properties. Here we present methods of systems thinking and system dynamics, which were first brought into force in the educational and training area in the form of different computer simulations and later as tools for decision-making and organisational re-engineering. We develop system dynamics models in order to present accuracy of methodology. These models are essentially simple and can serve only as describers of the activity of basic mutual influences among variables. We will pay the attention to the methodology for parameter model values determination and the so-called mental model. This one is the basis of causal connections among model variables. At the end, we restore a connection between qualitative and quantitative models in frame of system dynamics.

Modeling Dynamic Systems with Efficient Ensembles of Process-Based Models.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Nikola Simidjievski

Full Text Available Ensembles are a well established machine learning paradigm, leading to accurate and robust models, predominantly applied to predictive modeling tasks. Ensemble models comprise a finite set of diverse predictive models whose combined output is expected to yield an improved predictive performance as compared to an individual model. In this paper, we propose a new method for learning ensembles of process-based models of dynamic systems. The process-based modeling paradigm employs domain-specific knowledge to automatically learn models of dynamic systems from time-series observational data. Previous work has shown that ensembles based on sampling observational data (i.e., bagging and boosting, significantly improve predictive performance of process-based models. However, this improvement comes at the cost of a substantial increase of the computational time needed for learning. To address this problem, the paper proposes a method that aims at efficiently learning ensembles of process-based models, while maintaining their accurate long-term predictive performance. This is achieved by constructing ensembles with sampling domain-specific knowledge instead of sampling data. We apply the proposed method to and evaluate its performance on a set of problems of automated predictive modeling in three lake ecosystems using a library of process-based knowledge for modeling population dynamics. The experimental results identify the optimal design decisions regarding the learning algorithm. The results also show that the proposed ensembles yield significantly more accurate predictions of population dynamics as compared to individual process-based models. Finally, while their predictive performance is comparable to the one of ensembles obtained with the state-of-the-art methods of bagging and boosting, they are substantially more efficient.

Development of a Stirling System Dynamic Model with Enhanced Thermodynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Regan, Timothy F.; Lewandowski, Edward J.

2005-02-01

The Stirling Convertor System Dynamic Model developed at NASA Glenn Research Center is a software model developed from first principles that includes the mechanical and mounting dynamics, the thermodynamics, the linear alternator, and the controller of a free-piston Stirling power convertor, along with the end user load. As such it represents the first detailed modeling tool for fully integrated Stirling convertor-based power systems. The thermodynamics of the model were originally a form of the isothermal Stirling cycle. In some situations it may be desirable to improve the accuracy of the Stirling cycle portion of the model. An option under consideration is to enhance the SDM thermodynamics by coupling the model with Gedeon Associates' Sage simulation code. The result will be a model that gives a more accurate prediction of the performance and dynamics of the free-piston Stirling convertor. A method of integrating the Sage simulation code with the System Dynamic Model is described. Results of SDM and Sage simulation are compared to test data. Model parameter estimation and model validation are discussed.

Applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy.

Science.gov (United States)

Atkinson, Jo-An M; Wells, Robert; Page, Andrew; Dominello, Amanda; Haines, Mary; Wilson, Andrew

2015-07-09

The value of systems science modelling methods in the health sector is increasingly being recognised. Of particular promise is the potential of these methods to improve operational aspects of healthcare capacity and delivery, analyse policy options for health system reform and guide investments to address complex public health problems. Because it lends itself to a participatory approach, system dynamics modelling has been a particularly appealing method that aims to align stakeholder understanding of the underlying causes of a problem and achieve consensus for action. The aim of this review is to determine the effectiveness of system dynamics modelling for health policy, and explore the range and nature of its application. A systematic search was conducted to identify articles published up to April 2015 from the PubMed, Web of Knowledge, Embase, ScienceDirect and Google Scholar databases. The grey literature was also searched. Papers eligible for inclusion were those that described applications of system dynamics modelling to support health policy at any level of government. Six papers were identified, comprising eight case studies of the application of system dynamics modelling to support health policy. No analytic studies were found that examined the effectiveness of this type of modelling. Only three examples engaged multidisciplinary stakeholders in collective model building. Stakeholder participation in model building reportedly facilitated development of a common 'mental map' of the health problem, resulting in consensus about optimal policy strategy and garnering support for collaborative action. The paucity of relevant papers indicates that, although the volume of descriptive literature advocating the value of system dynamics modelling is considerable, its practical application to inform health policy making is yet to be routinely applied and rigorously evaluated. Advances in software are allowing the participatory model building approach to be extended to

Dynamic Modeling of Process Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin E.; Anderson, Molly S.

2012-01-01

Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents dynamic simulations of chemical process for primary processor technologies including: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system, the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD), and post-distillation water polishing processes such as the Volatiles Removal Assembly (VRA). These dynamic models were developed using the Aspen Custom Modeler (Registered TradeMark) and Aspen Plus(Registered TradeMark) process simulation tools. The results expand upon previous work for water recovery technology models and emphasize dynamic process modeling and results. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and model results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and available test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.

Investigating immune system aging: system dynamics and agent-based modeling

OpenAIRE

Figueredo, Grazziela; Aickelin, Uwe

2010-01-01

System dynamics and agent based simulation models can\\ud both be used to model and understand interactions of entities within a population. Our modeling work presented here is concerned with understanding the suitability of the different types of simulation for the immune system aging problems and comparing their results. We are trying to answer questions such as: How fit is the immune system given a certain age? Would an immune boost be of therapeutic value, e.g. to improve the effectiveness...

Structural system identification: Structural dynamics model validation

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Red-Horse, J.R.

1997-04-01

Structural system identification is concerned with the development of systematic procedures and tools for developing predictive analytical models based on a physical structure`s dynamic response characteristics. It is a multidisciplinary process that involves the ability (1) to define high fidelity physics-based analysis models, (2) to acquire accurate test-derived information for physical specimens using diagnostic experiments, (3) to validate the numerical simulation model by reconciling differences that inevitably exist between the analysis model and the experimental data, and (4) to quantify uncertainties in the final system models and subsequent numerical simulations. The goal of this project was to develop structural system identification techniques and software suitable for both research and production applications in code and model validation.

Function of dynamic models in systems biology: linking structure to behaviour.

Science.gov (United States)

Knüpfer, Christian; Beckstein, Clemens

2013-10-08

Dynamic models in Systems Biology are used in computational simulation experiments for addressing biological questions. The complexity of the modelled biological systems and the growing number and size of the models calls for computer support for modelling and simulation in Systems Biology. This computer support has to be based on formal representations of relevant knowledge fragments. In this paper we describe different functional aspects of dynamic models. This description is conceptually embedded in our "meaning facets" framework which systematises the interpretation of dynamic models in structural, functional and behavioural facets. Here we focus on how function links the structure and the behaviour of a model. Models play a specific role (teleological function) in the scientific process of finding explanations for dynamic phenomena. In order to fulfil this role a model has to be used in simulation experiments (pragmatical function). A simulation experiment always refers to a specific situation and a state of the model and the modelled system (conditional function). We claim that the function of dynamic models refers to both the simulation experiment executed by software (intrinsic function) and the biological experiment which produces the phenomena under investigation (extrinsic function). We use the presented conceptual framework for the function of dynamic models to review formal accounts for functional aspects of models in Systems Biology, such as checklists, ontologies, and formal languages. Furthermore, we identify missing formal accounts for some of the functional aspects. In order to fill one of these gaps we propose an ontology for the teleological function of models. We have thoroughly analysed the role and use of models in Systems Biology. The resulting conceptual framework for the function of models is an important first step towards a comprehensive formal representation of the functional knowledge involved in the modelling and simulation process

OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

C Brandon Ogbunugafor

Full Text Available Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL. Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.

OFFl Models: Novel Schema for Dynamical Modeling of Biological Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Ogbunugafor, C Brandon; Robinson, Sean P

2016-01-01

Flow diagrams are a common tool used to help build and interpret models of dynamical systems, often in biological contexts such as consumer-resource models and similar compartmental models. Typically, their usage is intuitive and informal. Here, we present a formalized version of flow diagrams as a kind of weighted directed graph which follow a strict grammar, which translate into a system of ordinary differential equations (ODEs) by a single unambiguous rule, and which have an equivalent representation as a relational database. (We abbreviate this schema of "ODEs and formalized flow diagrams" as OFFL.) Drawing a diagram within this strict grammar encourages a mental discipline on the part of the modeler in which all dynamical processes of a system are thought of as interactions between dynamical species that draw parcels from one or more source species and deposit them into target species according to a set of transformation rules. From these rules, the net rate of change for each species can be derived. The modeling schema can therefore be understood as both an epistemic and practical heuristic for modeling, serving both as an organizational framework for the model building process and as a mechanism for deriving ODEs. All steps of the schema beyond the initial scientific (intuitive, creative) abstraction of natural observations into model variables are algorithmic and easily carried out by a computer, thus enabling the future development of a dedicated software implementation. Such tools would empower the modeler to consider significantly more complex models than practical limitations might have otherwise proscribed, since the modeling framework itself manages that complexity on the modeler's behalf. In this report, we describe the chief motivations for OFFL, carefully outline its implementation, and utilize a range of classic examples from ecology and epidemiology to showcase its features.

Best practices for system dynamics model design and construction with powersim studio.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Malczynski, Leonard A.

2011-06-01

This guide addresses software quality in the construction of Powersim{reg_sign} Studio 8 system dynamics simulation models. It is the result of almost ten years of experience with the Powersim suite of system dynamics modeling tools (Constructor and earlier Studio versions). It is a guide that proposes a common look and feel for the construction of Powersim Studio system dynamics models.

Mathematical modeling of earth's dynamical systems a primer

CERN Document Server

Slingerland, Rudy

2011-01-01

Mathematical Modeling of Earth's Dynamical Systems gives earth scientists the essential skills for translating chemical and physical systems into mathematical and computational models that provide enhanced insight into Earth's processes. Using a step-by-step method, the book identifies the important geological variables of physical-chemical geoscience problems and describes the mechanisms that control these variables. This book is directed toward upper-level undergraduate students, graduate students, researchers, and professionals who want to learn how to abstract complex systems into sets of dynamic equations. It shows students how to recognize domains of interest and key factors, and how to explain assumptions in formal terms. The book reveals what data best tests ideas of how nature works, and cautions against inadequate transport laws, unconstrained coefficients, and unfalsifiable models. Various examples of processes and systems, and ample illustrations, are provided. Students using this text should be f...

Handbook of electrical power system dynamics modeling, stability, and control

CERN Document Server

Eremia, Mircea

2013-01-01

Complete guidance for understanding electrical power system dynamics and blackouts This handbook offers a comprehensive and up-to-date treatment of power system dynamics. Addressing the full range of topics, from the fundamentals to the latest technologies in modeling, stability, and control, Handbook of Electrical Power System Dynamics provides engineers with hands-on guidance for understanding the phenomena leading to blackouts so they can design the most appropriate solutions for a cost-effective and reliable operation. Focusing on system dynamics, the book details

The dynamics of general developmental mechanisms : From Piaget and Vygotsky to dynamic systems models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Geert, P

Dynamic systems theory conceives of development as a self-organizational process. Both complexity and order emerge as a product of elementary principles of interaction between components involved in the developmental process. This article presents a dynamic systems model based on a general dual

Dynamic modeling and optimal joint torque coordination of advanced robotic systems

Science.gov (United States)

Kang, Hee-Jun

The development is documented of an efficient dynamic modeling algorithm and the subsequent optimal joint input load coordination of advanced robotic systems for industrial application. A closed-form dynamic modeling algorithm for the general closed-chain robotic linkage systems is presented. The algorithm is based on the transfer of system dependence from a set of open chain Lagrangian coordinates to any desired system generalized coordinate set of the closed-chain. Three different techniques for evaluation of the kinematic closed chain constraints allow the representation of the dynamic modeling parameters in terms of system generalized coordinates and have no restriction with regard to kinematic redundancy. The total computational requirement of the closed-chain system model is largely dependent on the computation required for the dynamic model of an open kinematic chain. In order to improve computational efficiency, modification of an existing open-chain KIC based dynamic formulation is made by the introduction of the generalized augmented body concept. This algorithm allows a 44 pct. computational saving over the current optimized one (O(N4), 5995 when N = 6). As means of resolving redundancies in advanced robotic systems, local joint torque optimization is applied for effectively using actuator power while avoiding joint torque limits. The stability problem in local joint torque optimization schemes is eliminated by using fictitious dissipating forces which act in the necessary null space. The performance index representing the global torque norm is shown to be satisfactory. In addition, the resulting joint motion trajectory becomes conservative, after a transient stage, for repetitive cyclic end-effector trajectories. The effectiveness of the null space damping method is shown. The modular robot, which is built of well defined structural modules from a finite-size inventory and is controlled by one general computer system, is another class of evolving

Analyzing dynamic fault trees derived from model-based system architectures

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Dehlinger, Josh; Dugan, Joanne Bechta

2008-01-01

Dependability-critical systems, such as digital instrumentation and control systems in nuclear power plants, necessitate engineering techniques and tools to provide assurances of their safety and reliability. Determining system reliability at the architectural design phase is important since it may guide design decisions and provide crucial information for trade-off analysis and estimating system cost. Despite this, reliability and system engineering remain separate disciplines and engineering processes by which the dependability analysis results may not represent the designed system. In this article we provide an overview and application of our approach to build architecture-based, dynamic system models for dependability-critical systems and then automatically generate Dynamic Fault Trees (DFT) for comprehensive, toolsupported reliability analysis. Specifically, we use the Architectural Analysis and Design Language (AADL) to model the structural, behavioral and failure aspects of the system in a composite architecture model. From the AADL model, we seek to derive the DFT(s) and use Galileo's automated reliability analyses to estimate system reliability. This approach alleviates the dependability engineering - systems engineering knowledge expertise gap, integrates the dependability and system engineering design and development processes and enables a more formal, automated and consistent DFT construction. We illustrate this work using an example based on a dynamic digital feed-water control system for a nuclear reactor

Cyber Physical System Modelling of Distribution Power Systems for Dynamic Demand Response

Science.gov (United States)

Chu, Xiaodong; Zhang, Rongxiang; Tang, Maosen; Huang, Haoyi; Zhang, Lei

2018-01-01

Dynamic demand response (DDR) is a package of control methods to enhance power system security. A CPS modelling and simulation platform for DDR in distribution power systems is presented in this paper. CPS modelling requirements of distribution power systems are analyzed. A coupled CPS modelling platform is built for assessing DDR in the distribution power system, which combines seamlessly modelling tools of physical power networks and cyber communication networks. Simulations results of IEEE 13-node test system demonstrate the effectiveness of the modelling and simulation platform.

System Dynamics as Model-Based Theory Building

OpenAIRE

Schwaninger, Markus; Grösser, Stefan N.

2008-01-01

This paper introduces model-based theory building as a feature of system dynamics (SD) with large potential. It presents a systemic approach to actualizing that potential, thereby opening up a new perspective on theory building in the social sciences. The question addressed is if and how SD enables the construction of high-quality theories. This contribution is based on field experiment type projects which have been focused on model-based theory building, specifically the construction of a mi...

Tinamit: Making coupled system dynamics models accessible to stakeholders

Science.gov (United States)

Malard, Julien; Inam Baig, Azhar; Rojas Díaz, Marcela; Hassanzadeh, Elmira; Adamowski, Jan; Tuy, Héctor; Melgar-Quiñonez, Hugo

2017-04-01

Model coupling is increasingly used as a method of combining the best of two models when representing socio-environmental systems, though barriers to successful model adoption by stakeholders are particularly present with the use of coupled models, due to their high complexity and typically low implementation flexibility. Coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling is a promising method to improve stakeholder participation in environmental modelling while retaining a high level of complexity for physical process representation, as the system dynamics components are readily understandable and can be built by stakeholders themselves. However, this method is not without limitations in practice, including 1) inflexible and complicated coupling methods, 2) difficult model maintenance after the end of the project, and 3) a wide variety of end-user cultures and languages. We have developed the open-source Python-language software tool Tinamit to overcome some of these limitations to the adoption of stakeholder-based coupled system dynamics - physically-based modelling. The software is unique in 1) its inclusion of both a graphical user interface (GUI) and a library of available commands (API) that allow users with little or no coding abilities to rapidly, effectively, and flexibly couple models, 2) its multilingual support for the GUI, allowing users to couple models in their preferred language (and to add new languages as necessary for their community work), and 3) its modular structure allowing for very easy model coupling and modification without the direct use of code, and to which programming-savvy users can easily add support for new types of physically-based models. We discuss how the use of Tinamit for model coupling can greatly increase the accessibility of coupled models to stakeholders, using an example of a stakeholder-built system dynamics model of soil salinity issues in Pakistan coupled with the physically-based soil salinity and water flow model

Capturing complexity in work disability research: application of system dynamics modeling methodology.

Science.gov (United States)

Jetha, Arif; Pransky, Glenn; Hettinger, Lawrence J

2016-01-01

Work disability (WD) is characterized by variable and occasionally undesirable outcomes. The underlying determinants of WD outcomes include patterns of dynamic relationships among health, personal, organizational and regulatory factors that have been challenging to characterize, and inadequately represented by contemporary WD models. System dynamics modeling (SDM) methodology applies a sociotechnical systems thinking lens to view WD systems as comprising a range of influential factors linked by feedback relationships. SDM can potentially overcome limitations in contemporary WD models by uncovering causal feedback relationships, and conceptualizing dynamic system behaviors. It employs a collaborative and stakeholder-based model building methodology to create a visual depiction of the system as a whole. SDM can also enable researchers to run dynamic simulations to provide evidence of anticipated or unanticipated outcomes that could result from policy and programmatic intervention. SDM may advance rehabilitation research by providing greater insights into the structure and dynamics of WD systems while helping to understand inherent complexity. Challenges related to data availability, determining validity, and the extensive time and technical skill requirements for model building may limit SDM's use in the field and should be considered. Contemporary work disability (WD) models provide limited insight into complexity associated with WD processes. System dynamics modeling (SDM) has the potential to capture complexity through a stakeholder-based approach that generates a simulation model consisting of multiple feedback loops. SDM may enable WD researchers and practitioners to understand the structure and behavior of the WD system as a whole, and inform development of improved strategies to manage straightforward and complex WD cases.

Dynamic simulation of a circulating fluidized bed boiler system part I: Description of the dynamic system and transient behavior of sub-models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Seong Il; Choi, Sang Min; Yang, Jong In

2016-01-01

Dynamic performance simulation of a CFB boiler in a commercial-scale power plant is reported. The boiler system was modeled by a finite number of heat exchanger units, which are sub-grouped into the gas-solid circulation loop, the water-steam circulation loop, and the inter-connected heat exchangers blocks of the boiler. This dynamic model is an extension from the previously reported performance simulation model, which was designed to simulate static performance of the same power plant, where heat and mass for each of the heat exchanger units were balanced for the inter-connected heat exchanger network among the fuel combustion system and the water-steam system. Dynamic performance simulation was achieved by calculating the incremental difference from the previous time step, and progressing for the next time step. Additional discretization of the heat exchanger blocks was necessary to accommodate the dynamic response of the water evaporation and natural circulation as well as the transient response of the metal temperature of the heat exchanger elements. Presentation of the simulation modeling is organized into two parts; system configuration of the model plant and the general approach of the simulation are presented along with the transient behavior of the sub-models in Part I. Dynamic sub-models were integrated in terms of the mass flow and the heat transfer for simulating the CFB boiler system. Dynamic simulation for the open loop response was performed to check the integrated system of the water-steam loop and the solid-gas loop of the total boiler system. Simulation of the total boiler system which includes the closed-loop control system blocks is presented in the following Part II

Dynamic simulation of a circulating fluidized bed boiler system part I: Description of the dynamic system and transient behavior of sub-models

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Seong Il; Choi, Sang Min; Yang, Jong In [Dept. of Mechanical Engineering, Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2016-12-15

Dynamic performance simulation of a CFB boiler in a commercial-scale power plant is reported. The boiler system was modeled by a finite number of heat exchanger units, which are sub-grouped into the gas-solid circulation loop, the water-steam circulation loop, and the inter-connected heat exchangers blocks of the boiler. This dynamic model is an extension from the previously reported performance simulation model, which was designed to simulate static performance of the same power plant, where heat and mass for each of the heat exchanger units were balanced for the inter-connected heat exchanger network among the fuel combustion system and the water-steam system. Dynamic performance simulation was achieved by calculating the incremental difference from the previous time step, and progressing for the next time step. Additional discretization of the heat exchanger blocks was necessary to accommodate the dynamic response of the water evaporation and natural circulation as well as the transient response of the metal temperature of the heat exchanger elements. Presentation of the simulation modeling is organized into two parts; system configuration of the model plant and the general approach of the simulation are presented along with the transient behavior of the sub-models in Part I. Dynamic sub-models were integrated in terms of the mass flow and the heat transfer for simulating the CFB boiler system. Dynamic simulation for the open loop response was performed to check the integrated system of the water-steam loop and the solid-gas loop of the total boiler system. Simulation of the total boiler system which includes the closed-loop control system blocks is presented in the following Part II.

Dynamics of sustained use and abandonment of clean cooking systems: study protocol for community-based system dynamics modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kumar, Praveen; Chalise, Nishesh; Yadama, Gautam N

2016-04-26

More than 3 billion of the world's population are affected by household air pollution from relying on unprocessed solid fuels for heating and cooking. Household air pollution is harmful to human health, climate, and environment. Sustained uptake and use of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels are proposed as solutions to this problem. In this paper, we present our study protocol aimed at understanding multiple interacting feedback mechanisms involved in the dynamic behavior between social, ecological, and technological systems driving sustained use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies among the rural poor in India. This study uses a comparative case study design to understand the dynamics of sustained use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels in four rural communities of Rajasthan, India. The study adopts a community based system dynamics modeling approach. We describe our approach of using community based system dynamics with rural communities to delineate the feedback mechanisms involved in the uptake and sustainment of clean cooking technologies. We develop a reference mode with communities showing the trend over time of use or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies and fuels in these communities. Subsequently, the study develops a system dynamics model with communities to understand the complex sub-systems driving the behavior in these communities as reflected in the reference mode. We use group model building techniques to facilitate participation of relevant stakeholders in the four communities and elicit a narrative describing the feedback mechanisms underlying sustained adoption or abandonment of cleaner cooking technologies. In understanding the dynamics of feedback mechanisms in the uptake and exclusive use of cleaner cooking systems, we increase the likelihood of dissemination and implementation of efficacious interventions into everyday settings to improve the health and wellbeing of women and children most affected

The Financial Accounting Model from a System Dynamics' Perspective

OpenAIRE

Melse, Eric

2006-01-01

This paper explores the foundation of the financial accounting model. We examine the properties of the accounting equation as the principal algorithm for the design and the development of a System Dynamics model. Key to the perspective is the foundational requirement that resolves the temporal conflict that resides in a stock and flow model. Through formal analysis the accounting equation is redefined as a cybernetic model by expressing the temporal and dynamic properties of its terms. Articu...

Modelling the crop: from system dynamics to systems biology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Yin, X.; Struik, P.C.

2010-01-01

There is strong interplant competition in a crop stand for various limiting resources, resulting in complex compensation and regulation mechanisms along the developmental cascade of the whole crop. Despite decades-long use of principles in system dynamics (e.g. feedback control), current crop models

The System Dynamics Model for Development of Organic Agriculture

Science.gov (United States)

Rozman, Črtomir; Škraba, Andrej; Kljajić, Miroljub; Pažek, Karmen; Bavec, Martina; Bavec, Franci

2008-10-01

Organic agriculture is the highest environmentally valuable agricultural system, and has strategic importance at national level that goes beyond the interests of agricultural sector. In this paper we address development of organic farming simulation model based on a system dynamics methodology (SD). The system incorporates relevant variables, which affect the development of the organic farming. The group decision support system (GDSS) was used in order to identify most relevant variables for construction of causal loop diagram and further model development. The model seeks answers to strategic questions related to the level of organically utilized area, levels of production and crop selection in a long term dynamic context and will be used for simulation of different policy scenarios for organic farming and their impact on economic and environmental parameters of organic production at an aggregate level.

Hardware-in-the-loop vehicle system including dynamic fuel cell model

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lemes, Z.; Lenhart, T.; Braun, M.; Maencher, H. [MAGNUM Automatisierungstechnik GmbH, Darmstadt (Germany)

2005-07-01

In order to reduce costs and accelerate the development of fuel cells and systems the usage of hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing and dynamic modelling opens new possibilities. The dynamic model of a proton exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) together with a vehicle model is used to carry out a comprehensive system investigation, which allows designing and optimising the behaviour of the components and the entire fuel cell system. The set-up of a HIL system enables real time interaction between the selected hardware and the model. (orig.)

Parameter Estimation for Dynamic Model of the Financial System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Veronika Novotná

2015-01-01

Full Text Available Economy can be considered a large, open system which is influenced by fluctuations, both internal and external. Based on non-linear dynamics theory, the dynamic models of a financial system try to provide a new perspective by explaining the complicated behaviour of the system not as a result of external influences or random behaviour, but as a result of the behaviour and trends of the system’s internal structures. The present article analyses a chaotic financial system from the point of view of determining the time delay of the model variables – the interest rate, investment demand, and price index. The theory is briefly explained in the first chapters of the paper and serves as a basis for formulating the relations. This article aims to determine the appropriate length of time delay variables in a dynamic model of the financial system in order to express the real economic situation and respect the effect of the history of factors under consideration. The determination of the delay length is carried out for the time series representing Euro area. The methodology for the determination of the time delay is illustrated by a concrete example.

Integrated dynamic modeling and management system mission analysis

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, A.K.

1994-12-28

This document summarizes the mission analysis performed on the Integrated Dynamic Modeling and Management System (IDMMS). The IDMMS will be developed to provide the modeling and analysis capability required to understand the TWRS system behavior in terms of the identified TWRS performance measures. The IDMMS will be used to demonstrate in a verified and validated manner the satisfactory performance of the TWRS system configuration and assurance that the requirements have been satisfied.

Integrated dynamic modeling and management system mission analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, A.K.

1994-01-01

This document summarizes the mission analysis performed on the Integrated Dynamic Modeling and Management System (IDMMS). The IDMMS will be developed to provide the modeling and analysis capability required to understand the TWRS system behavior in terms of the identified TWRS performance measures. The IDMMS will be used to demonstrate in a verified and validated manner the satisfactory performance of the TWRS system configuration and assurance that the requirements have been satisfied

Research on Dynamic Models and Performances of Shield Tunnel Boring Machine Cutterhead Driving System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xianhong Li

2013-01-01

Full Text Available A general nonlinear time-varying (NLTV dynamic model and linear time-varying (LTV dynamic model are presented for shield tunnel boring machine (TBM cutterhead driving system, respectively. Different gear backlashes and mesh damped and transmission errors are considered in the NLTV dynamic model. The corresponding multiple-input and multiple-output (MIMO state space models are also presented. Through analyzing the linear dynamic model, the optimal reducer ratio (ORR and optimal transmission ratio (OTR are obtained for the shield TBM cutterhead driving system, respectively. The NLTV and LTV dynamic models are numerically simulated, and the effects of physical parameters under various conditions of NLTV dynamic model are analyzed. Physical parameters such as the load torque, gear backlash and transmission error, gear mesh stiffness and damped, pinions inertia and damped, large gear inertia and damped, and motor rotor inertia and damped are investigated in detail to analyze their effects on dynamic response and performances of the shield TBM cutterhead driving system. Some preliminary approaches are proposed to improve dynamic performances of the cutterhead driving system, and dynamic models will provide a foundation for shield TBM cutterhead driving system's cutterhead fault diagnosis, motion control, and torque synchronous control.

Dynamic Modeling of Process Technologies for Closed-Loop Water Recovery Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Allada, Rama Kumar; Lange, Kevin; Anderson, Molly

2011-01-01

Detailed chemical process simulations are a useful tool in designing and optimizing complex systems and architectures for human life support. Dynamic and steady-state models of these systems help contrast the interactions of various operating parameters and hardware designs, which become extremely useful in trade-study analyses. NASA s Exploration Life Support technology development project recently made use of such models to compliment a series of tests on different waste water distillation systems. This paper presents dynamic simulations of chemical process for primary processor technologies including: the Cascade Distillation System (CDS), the Vapor Compression Distillation (VCD) system, the Wiped-Film Rotating Disk (WFRD), and post-distillation water polishing processes such as the Volatiles Removal Assembly (VRA) that were developed using the Aspen Custom Modeler and Aspen Plus process simulation tools. The results expand upon previous work for water recovery technology models and emphasize dynamic process modeling and results. The paper discusses system design, modeling details, and model results for each technology and presents some comparisons between the model results and available test data. Following these initial comparisons, some general conclusions and forward work are discussed.

A system dynamics model to determine products mix

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mahtab Hajghasem

2014-02-01

Full Text Available This paper presents an implementation of system dynamics model to determine appropriate product mix by considering various factors such as labor, materials, overhead, etc. for an Iranian producer of cosmetic and sanitary products. The proposed model of this paper considers three hypotheses including the relationship between product mix and profitability, optimum production capacity and having minimum amount of storage to take advantage of low cost production. The implementation of system dynamics on VENSIM software package has confirmed all three hypotheses of the survey and suggested that in order to reach better mix product, it is necessary to reach optimum production planning, take advantage of all available production capacities and use inventory management techniques.

Models with Men and Women: Representing Gender in Dynamic Modeling of Social Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Palmer, Erika; Wilson, Benedicte

2018-04-01

Dynamic engineering models have yet to be evaluated in the context of feminist engineering ethics. Decision-making concerning gender in dynamic modeling design is a gender and ethical issue that is important to address regardless of the system in which the dynamic modeling is applied. There are many dynamic modeling tools that operationally include the female population, however, there is an important distinction between females and women; it is the difference between biological sex and the social construct of gender, which is fluid and changes over time and geography. The ethical oversight in failing to represent or misrepresenting gender in model design when it is relevant to the model purpose can have implications for model validity and policy model development. This paper highlights this gender issue in the context of feminist engineering ethics using a dynamic population model. Women are often represented in this type of model only in their biological capacity, while lacking their gender identity. This illustrative example also highlights how language, including the naming of variables and communication with decision-makers, plays a role in this gender issue.

A dynamic model of a photovoltaic vapour compression system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Renno, C.

2009-01-01

A dynamic simulation of a photovoltaic vapour compression system is presented in this paper. In particular, there are several options to convert solar energy into refrigeration effect such as the absorption cycle, the thermo-mechanical refrigeration systems, the regenerative desiccant process or the steam jet system. This effect can also be produced by a conventional vapor compression cycle in which the compressor is driven by an electric motor supplied by means of photovoltaic cells. It is also possible to produce the cooling effect adopting the thermoelectric refrigeration, with electricity supplied by means of photovoltaic cells. Absorption and solar mechanical systems are necessarily larger and require extensive plumbing and electrical connections. The dynamic model allows to obtain some characteristic temperatures of the photovoltaic system and the energy consumptions with and without load perturbations. This model results a useful tool to study the dynamic working, for example, of photovoltaic refrigerators used in rural areas and remote islands, for their simple structure and low costs, to preserve foodstuffs, vaccines and other life saving medicines. (author)

Incorporating Social System Dynamics into the Food-Energy-Water System Resilience-Sustainability Modeling Process

Science.gov (United States)

Givens, J.; Padowski, J.; Malek, K.; Guzman, C.; Boll, J.; Adam, J. C.; Witinok-Huber, R.

2017-12-01

In the face of climate change and multi-scalar governance objectives, achieving resilience of food-energy-water (FEW) systems requires interdisciplinary approaches. Through coordinated modeling and management efforts, we study "Innovations in the Food-Energy-Water Nexus (INFEWS)" through a case-study in the Columbia River Basin. Previous research on FEW system management and resilience includes some attention to social dynamics (e.g., economic, governance); however, more research is needed to better address social science perspectives. Decisions ultimately taken in this river basin would occur among stakeholders encompassing various institutional power structures including multiple U.S. states, tribal lands, and sovereign nations. The social science lens draws attention to the incompatibility between the engineering definition of resilience (i.e., return to equilibrium or a singular stable state) and the ecological and social system realities, more explicit in the ecological interpretation of resilience (i.e., the ability of a system to move into a different, possibly more resilient state). Social science perspectives include but are not limited to differing views on resilience as normative, system persistence versus transformation, and system boundary issues. To expand understanding of resilience and objectives for complex and dynamic systems, concepts related to inequality, heterogeneity, power, agency, trust, values, culture, history, conflict, and system feedbacks must be more tightly integrated into FEW research. We identify gaps in knowledge and data, and the value and complexity of incorporating social components and processes into systems models. We posit that socio-biophysical system resilience modeling would address important complex, dynamic social relationships, including non-linear dynamics of social interactions, to offer an improved understanding of sustainable management in FEW systems. Conceptual modeling that is presented in our study, represents

The importance of correct specification of tribological parameters in dynamical systems modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Alaci, S.; Ciornei, F. C.; Romanu, I. C.; Ciornei, M. C.

2018-01-01

When modelling the behaviour of dynamical systems, the friction phenomenon cannot be neglected. Dry and fluid friction may occur, but dry friction has more severe effects upon the behaviour of the systems, based on the fact that the introduced discontinuities are more important. In the modelling of dynamical systems, dry friction is the main cause of occurrence of the bifurcation phenomenon. These aspects become more complex if, in the case of dry friction, static and dynamic frictions are put forward. The behaviour of a simple dynamical system is studied, consisting in a prismatic body linked to the ground by a spring, placed on a conveyor belt. The theoretical model is described by a nonlinear differential equation which after numerical integration leads to the conclusion that the steady motion of the prism is an un-damped oscillatory motion. The system was qualitatively modelled using specialised software for dynamical analysis. It was impractical to obtain a steady uniform translational motion of a rigid, therefore the conveyor belt was replaced by a metallic disc in uniform rotation motion. The attempts to compare the CAD model to the theoretical model were unsuccessful because the efforts of selecting the tribological parameters directed to the conclusion that the motion of the prism is a damped oscillation. To decide which of the methods depicts reality, a test-rig was assembled and it indicated a sustained oscillation. The conclusion is that the model employed by the dynamical analysis software cannot describe the actual model and a more complex model is required in the description of the friction phenomenon.

Moving alcohol prevention research forward-Part II: new directions grounded in community-based system dynamics modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Apostolopoulos, Yorghos; Lemke, Michael K; Barry, Adam E; Lich, Kristen Hassmiller

2018-02-01

Given the complexity of factors contributing to alcohol misuse, appropriate epistemologies and methodologies are needed to understand and intervene meaningfully. We aimed to (1) provide an overview of computational modeling methodologies, with an emphasis on system dynamics modeling; (2) explain how community-based system dynamics modeling can forge new directions in alcohol prevention research; and (3) present a primer on how to build alcohol misuse simulation models using system dynamics modeling, with an emphasis on stakeholder involvement, data sources and model validation. Throughout, we use alcohol misuse among college students in the United States as a heuristic example for demonstrating these methodologies. System dynamics modeling employs a top-down aggregate approach to understanding dynamically complex problems. Its three foundational properties-stocks, flows and feedbacks-capture non-linearity, time-delayed effects and other system characteristics. As a methodological choice, system dynamics modeling is amenable to participatory approaches; in particular, community-based system dynamics modeling has been used to build impactful models for addressing dynamically complex problems. The process of community-based system dynamics modeling consists of numerous stages: (1) creating model boundary charts, behavior-over-time-graphs and preliminary system dynamics models using group model-building techniques; (2) model formulation; (3) model calibration; (4) model testing and validation; and (5) model simulation using learning-laboratory techniques. Community-based system dynamics modeling can provide powerful tools for policy and intervention decisions that can result ultimately in sustainable changes in research and action in alcohol misuse prevention. © 2017 Society for the Study of Addiction.

Sustainable infrastructure system modeling under uncertainties and dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Huang, Yongxi

Infrastructure systems support human activities in transportation, communication, water use, and energy supply. The dissertation research focuses on critical transportation infrastructure and renewable energy infrastructure systems. The goal of the research efforts is to improve the sustainability of the infrastructure systems, with an emphasis on economic viability, system reliability and robustness, and environmental impacts. The research efforts in critical transportation infrastructure concern the development of strategic robust resource allocation strategies in an uncertain decision-making environment, considering both uncertain service availability and accessibility. The study explores the performances of different modeling approaches (i.e., deterministic, stochastic programming, and robust optimization) to reflect various risk preferences. The models are evaluated in a case study of Singapore and results demonstrate that stochastic modeling methods in general offers more robust allocation strategies compared to deterministic approaches in achieving high coverage to critical infrastructures under risks. This general modeling framework can be applied to other emergency service applications, such as, locating medical emergency services. The development of renewable energy infrastructure system development aims to answer the following key research questions: (1) is the renewable energy an economically viable solution? (2) what are the energy distribution and infrastructure system requirements to support such energy supply systems in hedging against potential risks? (3) how does the energy system adapt the dynamics from evolving technology and societal needs in the transition into a renewable energy based society? The study of Renewable Energy System Planning with Risk Management incorporates risk management into its strategic planning of the supply chains. The physical design and operational management are integrated as a whole in seeking mitigations against the

A Comprehensive Method for Comparing Mental Models of Dynamic Systems

OpenAIRE

Schaffernicht, Martin; Grösser, Stefan N.

2011-01-01

Mental models are the basis on which managers make decisions even though external decision support systems may provide help. Research has demonstrated that more comprehensive and dynamic mental models seem to be at the foundation for improved policies and decisions. Eliciting and comparing such models can systematically explicate key variables and their main underlying structures. In addition, superior dynamic mental models can be identified. This paper reviews existing studies which measure ...

Cognitive Models for Learning to Control Dynamic Systems

National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

Eberhart, Russ; Hu, Xiaohui; Chen, Yaobin

2008-01-01

Report developed under STTR contract for topic "Cognitive models for learning to control dynamic systems" demonstrated a swarm intelligence learning algorithm and its application in unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) mission planning...

Quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms on graphene. I. System-bath modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Bonfanti, Matteo; Jackson, Bret; Hughes, Keith H; Burghardt, Irene; Martinazzo, Rocco

2015-09-28

An accurate system-bath model to investigate the quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms chemisorbed on graphene is presented. The system comprises a hydrogen atom and the carbon atom from graphene that forms the covalent bond, and it is described by a previously developed 4D potential energy surface based on density functional theory ab initio data. The bath describes the rest of the carbon lattice and is obtained from an empirical force field through inversion of a classical equilibrium correlation function describing the hydrogen motion. By construction, model building easily accommodates improvements coming from the use of higher level electronic structure theory for the system. Further, it is well suited to a determination of the system-environment coupling by means of ab initio molecular dynamics. This paper details the system-bath modeling and shows its application to the quantum dynamics of vibrational relaxation of a chemisorbed hydrogen atom, which is here investigated at T = 0 K with the help of the multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree method. Paper II deals with the sticking dynamics.

Quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms on graphene. I. System-bath modeling

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Bonfanti, Matteo, E-mail: matteo.bonfanti@unimi.it [Dipartimento di Chimica, Università degli Studi di Milano, v. Golgi 19, 20133 Milano (Italy); Jackson, Bret [Department of Chemistry, University of Massachusetts, Amherst, Massachusetts 01003 (United States); Hughes, Keith H. [School of Chemistry, Bangor University, Bangor, Gwynedd LL57 2UW (United Kingdom); Burghardt, Irene [Institute of Physical and Theoretical Chemistry, Goethe University Frankfurt, Max-von-Laue-Str. 7, 60438 Frankfurt/Main (Germany); Martinazzo, Rocco, E-mail: rocco.martinazzo@unimi.it [Dipartimento di Chimica, Università degli Studi di Milano, v. Golgi 19, 20133 Milano (Italy); Istituto di Scienze e Tecnologie Molecolari, Consiglio Nazionale delle Richerche, v. Golgi 19, 20133 Milano (Italy)

2015-09-28

An accurate system-bath model to investigate the quantum dynamics of hydrogen atoms chemisorbed on graphene is presented. The system comprises a hydrogen atom and the carbon atom from graphene that forms the covalent bond, and it is described by a previously developed 4D potential energy surface based on density functional theory ab initio data. The bath describes the rest of the carbon lattice and is obtained from an empirical force field through inversion of a classical equilibrium correlation function describing the hydrogen motion. By construction, model building easily accommodates improvements coming from the use of higher level electronic structure theory for the system. Further, it is well suited to a determination of the system-environment coupling by means of ab initio molecular dynamics. This paper details the system-bath modeling and shows its application to the quantum dynamics of vibrational relaxation of a chemisorbed hydrogen atom, which is here investigated at T = 0 K with the help of the multi-configuration time-dependent Hartree method. Paper II deals with the sticking dynamics.

Interactive Dynamic-System Simulation

CERN Document Server

Korn, Granino A

2010-01-01

Showing you how to use personal computers for modeling and simulation, Interactive Dynamic-System Simulation, Second Edition provides a practical tutorial on interactive dynamic-system modeling and simulation. It discusses how to effectively simulate dynamical systems, such as aerospace vehicles, power plants, chemical processes, control systems, and physiological systems. Written by a pioneer in simulation, the book introduces dynamic-system models and explains how software for solving differential equations works. After demonstrating real simulation programs with simple examples, the author

System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience in Nuclear Power Plants

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Florah, Kamanj; Kim, Jonghyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2013-10-15

This paper aims to model and evaluate emergency operation system (EOS) resilience using the System Dynamics. System Dynamics is the study of causal interactions between elements of a complex system. This paper identifies the EOS resilience attributes and their interactions by constructing a causal loop diagram. Then, the interactions are quantified based on literature review and simulated to analyze resilience dynamics. This paper describes the use of system dynamics to improve understanding of the resilience dynamics of complex systems such as emergency operation systems. This paper takes into account two aspects; the strength of resilience attributes interactions and the quantification of dynamic behaviour of resilience over time. This model can be applied to review NPP safety in terms of the resilience level and organization. Simulation results can give managers insights to support their decisions in safety management. A nuclear power plant (NPP) is classified as a safety critical organization whose safety objective is to control hazards that can cause significant harm to the environment, public, or personnel. There has been a significant improvement of safety designs as well as risk analysis tools and methods applied in nuclear power plants over the last decade. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations they primarily focus on technical dimension, the analysis are linear and sequential, they are dominated by static models, they do not take a systemic view into account, and they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. Hence new approaches to risk analysis for NPPs are needed to complement the conventional approaches. Resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. An EOS in a NPP refers to a system consisting of personnel

System Dynamics Modeling for the Resilience in Nuclear Power Plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Florah, Kamanj; Kim, Jonghyun

2013-01-01

This paper aims to model and evaluate emergency operation system (EOS) resilience using the System Dynamics. System Dynamics is the study of causal interactions between elements of a complex system. This paper identifies the EOS resilience attributes and their interactions by constructing a causal loop diagram. Then, the interactions are quantified based on literature review and simulated to analyze resilience dynamics. This paper describes the use of system dynamics to improve understanding of the resilience dynamics of complex systems such as emergency operation systems. This paper takes into account two aspects; the strength of resilience attributes interactions and the quantification of dynamic behaviour of resilience over time. This model can be applied to review NPP safety in terms of the resilience level and organization. Simulation results can give managers insights to support their decisions in safety management. A nuclear power plant (NPP) is classified as a safety critical organization whose safety objective is to control hazards that can cause significant harm to the environment, public, or personnel. There has been a significant improvement of safety designs as well as risk analysis tools and methods applied in nuclear power plants over the last decade. Conventional safety analysis methods such as PSA have several limitations they primarily focus on technical dimension, the analysis are linear and sequential, they are dominated by static models, they do not take a systemic view into account, and they focus primarily on why accidents happen and not how success is achieved. Hence new approaches to risk analysis for NPPs are needed to complement the conventional approaches. Resilience is the intrinsic ability of a system to adjust to its functioning prior to, during, or following changes and disturbances, so that it can sustain required operations under both expected and unexpected conditions. An EOS in a NPP refers to a system consisting of personnel

Modeling workforce demand in North Dakota: a System Dynamics approach

OpenAIRE

Muminova, Adiba

2015-01-01

This study investigates the dynamics behind the workforce demand and attempts to predict the potential effects of future changes in oil prices on workforce demand in North Dakota. The study attempts to join System Dynamics and Input-Output models in order to overcome shortcomings in both of the approaches and gain a more complete understanding of the issue of workforce demand. A system dynamics simulation of workforce demand within different economic sector...

Use of System Dynamics Modeling in Medical Education and Research Projects.

Science.gov (United States)

Bozikov, Jadranka; Relic, Danko; Dezelic, Gjuro

2018-01-01

The paper reviews experiences and accomplishments in application of system dynamics modeling in education, training and research projects at the Andrija Stampar School of Public Health, a branch of the Zagreb University School of Medicine, Croatia. A number of simulation models developed over the past 40 years are briefly described with regard to real problems concerned, objectives and modeling methods and techniques used. Many of them have been developed as the individual students' projects as a part of their graduation, MSc or PhD theses and subsequently published in journals or conference proceedings. Some of them were later used in teaching and simulation training. System dynamics modeling proved to be not only powerful method for research and decision making but also a useful tool in medical and nursing education enabling better understanding of dynamic systems' behavior.

The System Dynamics Model User Sustainability Explorer (SD-MUSE) user interface: a user-friendly tool for interpreting system dynamic models

Science.gov (United States)

Sustainability-based decision making is a challenging process that requires balancing trade-offs among social, economic, and environmental components. System Dynamic (SD) models can be useful tools to inform sustainability-based decision making because they provide a holistic co...

Thermodynamic modeling, energy equipartition, and nonconservation of entropy for discrete-time dynamical systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Chellaboina Vijaysekhar

2005-01-01

Full Text Available We develop thermodynamic models for discrete-time large-scale dynamical systems. Specifically, using compartmental dynamical system theory, we develop energy flow models possessing energy conservation, energy equipartition, temperature equipartition, and entropy nonconservation principles for discrete-time, large-scale dynamical systems. Furthermore, we introduce a new and dual notion to entropy; namely, ectropy, as a measure of the tendency of a dynamical system to do useful work and grow more organized, and show that conservation of energy in an isolated thermodynamic system necessarily leads to nonconservation of ectropy and entropy. In addition, using the system ectropy as a Lyapunov function candidate, we show that our discrete-time, large-scale thermodynamic energy flow model has convergent trajectories to Lyapunov stable equilibria determined by the system initial subsystem energies.

Novel Fuzzy-Modeling-Based Adaptive Synchronization of Nonlinear Dynamic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Shih-Yu Li

2017-01-01

Full Text Available In this paper, a novel fuzzy-model-based adaptive synchronization scheme and its fuzzy update laws of parameters are proposed to address the adaptive synchronization problem. The proposed fuzzy controller does not share the same premise of fuzzy system, and the numbers of fuzzy controllers is reduced effectively through the novel modeling strategy. In addition, based on the adaptive synchronization scheme, the error dynamic system can be guaranteed to be asymptotically stable and the true values of unknown parameters can be obtained. Two identical complicated dynamic systems, Mathieu-Van der pol system (M-V system with uncertainties, are illustrated for numerical simulation example to show the effectiveness and feasibility of the proposed novel adaptive control strategy.

Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

OpenAIRE

Wahyu Adi Tri Joko; Ayu Ratnawinanda Lila

2017-01-01

Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD). System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate...

System Dynamics Approach for Critical Infrastructure and Decision Support. A Model for a Potable Water System.

Science.gov (United States)

Pasqualini, D.; Witkowski, M.

2005-12-01

The Critical Infrastructure Protection / Decision Support System (CIP/DSS) project, supported by the Science and Technology Office, has been developing a risk-informed Decision Support System that provides insights for making critical infrastructure protection decisions. The system considers seventeen different Department of Homeland Security defined Critical Infrastructures (potable water system, telecommunications, public health, economics, etc.) and their primary interdependencies. These infrastructures have been modeling in one model called CIP/DSS Metropolitan Model. The modeling approach used is a system dynamics modeling approach. System dynamics modeling combines control theory and the nonlinear dynamics theory, which is defined by a set of coupled differential equations, which seeks to explain how the structure of a given system determines its behavior. In this poster we present a system dynamics model for one of the seventeen critical infrastructures, a generic metropolitan potable water system (MPWS). Three are the goals: 1) to gain a better understanding of the MPWS infrastructure; 2) to identify improvements that would help protect MPWS; and 3) to understand the consequences, interdependencies, and impacts, when perturbations occur to the system. The model represents raw water sources, the metropolitan water treatment process, storage of treated water, damage and repair to the MPWS, distribution of water, and end user demand, but does not explicitly represent the detailed network topology of an actual MPWS. The MPWS model is dependent upon inputs from the metropolitan population, energy, telecommunication, public health, and transportation models as well as the national water and transportation models. We present modeling results and sensitivity analysis indicating critical choke points, negative and positive feedback loops in the system. A general scenario is also analyzed where the potable water system responds to a generic disruption.

Modeling Dynamic Processes in Smallholder Dairy Value Chains in Nicaragua: A System Dynamics Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Helene Lie

2016-08-01

Full Text Available In Nicaragua, the production of dairy and beef is the most important source of household income for many smallholder producers. However, erratic volumes and quality of milk limit the participation of small- and medium-scale cattle farmers into higher-value dairy value chains. This research uses a system dynamics (SD approach to analyze the Matiguás dairy value chain in Nicaragua. The paper presents the conceptual framework of the model and highlights the dynamic processes in the value chain, with a focus on improving feeding systems to achieve higher milk productivity and increased income for producers. The model was developed using a participatory group model building (GMB technique to jointly conceptualize and validate the model with stakeholders.

Modeling and Dynamic Analysis of Cutterhead Driving System in Tunnel Boring Machine

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wei Sun

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Failure of cutterhead driving system (CDS of tunnel boring machine (TBM often occurs under shock and vibration conditions. To investigate the dynamic characteristics and reduce system vibration further, an electromechanical coupling model of CDS is established which includes the model of direct torque control (DTC system for three-phase asynchronous motor and purely torsional dynamic model of multistage gear transmission system. The proposed DTC model can provide driving torque just as the practical inverter motor operates so that the influence of motor operating behavior will not be erroneously estimated. Moreover, nonlinear gear meshing factors, such as time-variant mesh stiffness and transmission error, are involved in the dynamic model. Based on the established nonlinear model of CDS, vibration modes can be classified into three types, that is, rigid motion mode, rotational vibration mode, and planet vibration mode. Moreover, dynamic responses under actual driving torque and idealized equivalent torque are compared, which reveals that the ripple of actual driving torque would aggravate vibration of gear transmission system. Influence index of torque ripple is proposed to show that vibration of system increases with torque ripple. This study provides useful guideline for antivibration design and motor control of CDS in TBM.

Study of system dynamics model and control of a high-power LED lighting luminaire

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Huang, B.-J.; Hsu, P.-C.; Wu, M.-S.; Tang, C.-W.

2007-01-01

The purpose of the present study is to design a current control system which is robust to the system dynamics uncertainty and the disturbance of ambient temperature to assure a stable optical output property of LED. The system dynamics model of the LED lighting system was first derived. A 96 W high-power LED luminaire was designed and built in the present study. The linearly perturbed system dynamics model for the LED luminaire is derived experimentally. The dynamics model of LED lighting system is of a multiple-input-multiple-output (MIMO) system with two inputs (applied voltage and ambient temperature) and two outputs (forward current and heat conducting body temperature). A step response test method was employed to the 96 W LED luminaire to identify the system dynamics model. It is found that the current model is just a constant gain (resistance) and the disturbance model is of first order, both changing with operating conditions (voltage and ambient temperature). A feedback control system using PI algorithm was designed using the results of the system dynamics model. The control system was implemented on a PIC microprocessor. Experimental results show that the control system can stably and accurately control the LED current to a constant value at the variation of ambient temperature up to 40 o C. The control system is shown to have a robust property with respect to the plant uncertainty and the ambient temperature disturbance

Small System dynamics models for big issues : Triple jump towards real-world complexity

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.

2013-01-01

System Dynamics (SD) is a method to describe, model, simulate and analyze dynamically complex issues and/or systems in terms of the processes, information, organizational boundaries and strategies. Quantitative SD modeling, simulation and analysis facilitates the (re)design of systems and design of

Development of a system dynamics model based on Six Sigma methodology

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

José Jovani Cardiel Ortega

2017-01-01

Full Text Available A dynamic model to analyze the complexity associated with the manufacturing systems and to improve the performance of the process through the Six Sigma philosophy is proposed. The research focuses on the implementation of the system dynamics tool to comply with each of the phases of the DMAIC methodology. In the first phase, define, the problem is articulated, collecting data, selecting the variables, and representing them in a mental map that helps build the dynamic hypothesis. In the second phase, measure, model is formulated, equations are developed, and Forrester diagram is developed to carry out the simulation. In the third phase, analyze, the simulation results are studied. For the fourth phase, improving, the model is validated through a sensitivity analysis. Finally, in control phase, operation policies are proposed. This paper presents the development of a dynamic model of the system of knitted textile production knitted developed; the implementation was done in a textile company in southern Guanajuato. The results show an improvement in the process performance by increasing the level of sigma allowing the validation of the proposed approach.

Modeling of Macroeconomics by a Novel Discrete Nonlinear Fractional Dynamical System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhenhua Hu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available We propose a new nonlinear economic system with fractional derivative. According to the Jumarie’s definition of fractional derivative, we obtain a discrete fractional nonlinear economic system. Three variables, the gross domestic production, inflation, and unemployment rate, are considered by this nonlinear system. Based on the concrete macroeconomic data of USA, the coefficients of this nonlinear system are estimated by the method of least squares. The application of discrete fractional economic model with linear and nonlinear structure is shown to illustrate the efficiency of modeling the macroeconomic data with discrete fractional dynamical system. The empirical study suggests that the nonlinear discrete fractional dynamical system can describe the actual economic data accurately and predict the future behavior more reasonably than the linear dynamic system. The method proposed in this paper can be applied to investigate other macroeconomic variables of more states.

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Hansen, A.; Jauch, Clemens; Soerensen, P.

The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT. The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. The report...

Development of a dynamic model for a DX VAV air conditioning system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Chen Wu; Deng Shiming

2006-01-01

A direct expansion (DX) variable air volume (VAV) air conditioning (A/C) system consists of a VAV air distribution subsystem and a DX refrigeration plant. This paper reports on the development of a representative and complete dynamic mathematical model for the DX VAV A/C system having a variable speed compressor and pressure independent VAV terminals. The model is component based and takes into account the dynamic behaviors of both the DX refrigeration plant and the VAV air distribution subsystem simultaneously. The dynamic model has been developed based on the principles of mass and energy conservation and using correlations describing the operational performance of some of the system's components, which are either field tested or available from manufacturers. An experimental rig has been set up for the DX VAV A/C system, and experimental work has been conducted to obtain the system's responses to the step change of compressor speed. The dynamic model developed was then validated using the experimental data obtained. Steady state and transient responses for five major operating parameters obtained from both the model and the experiment were compared and found to be in good agreement

Local difference measures between complex networks for dynamical system model evaluation.

Science.gov (United States)

Lange, Stefan; Donges, Jonathan F; Volkholz, Jan; Kurths, Jürgen

2015-01-01

A faithful modeling of real-world dynamical systems necessitates model evaluation. A recent promising methodological approach to this problem has been based on complex networks, which in turn have proven useful for the characterization of dynamical systems. In this context, we introduce three local network difference measures and demonstrate their capabilities in the field of climate modeling, where these measures facilitate a spatially explicit model evaluation.Building on a recent study by Feldhoff et al. [8] we comparatively analyze statistical and dynamical regional climate simulations of the South American monsoon system [corrected]. types of climate networks representing different aspects of rainfall dynamics are constructed from the modeled precipitation space-time series. Specifically, we define simple graphs based on positive as well as negative rank correlations between rainfall anomaly time series at different locations, and such based on spatial synchronizations of extreme rain events. An evaluation against respective networks built from daily satellite data provided by the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission 3B42 V7 reveals far greater differences in model performance between network types for a fixed but arbitrary climate model than between climate models for a fixed but arbitrary network type. We identify two sources of uncertainty in this respect. Firstly, climate variability limits fidelity, particularly in the case of the extreme event network; and secondly, larger geographical link lengths render link misplacements more likely, most notably in the case of the anticorrelation network; both contributions are quantified using suitable ensembles of surrogate networks. Our model evaluation approach is applicable to any multidimensional dynamical system and especially our simple graph difference measures are highly versatile as the graphs to be compared may be constructed in whatever way required. Generalizations to directed as well as edge- and node

Dynamic Systems and Control Engineering

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kim, Jong Seok

1994-02-01

This book deals with introduction of dynamic system and control engineering, frequency domain modeling of dynamic system, temporal modeling of dynamic system, typical dynamic system and automatic control device, performance and stability of control system, root locus analysis, analysis of frequency domain dynamic system, design of frequency domain dynamic system, design and analysis of space, space of control system and digital control system such as control system design of direct digital and digitalization of consecutive control system.

Dynamic Systems and Control Engineering

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Kim, Jong Seok

1994-02-15

This book deals with introduction of dynamic system and control engineering, frequency domain modeling of dynamic system, temporal modeling of dynamic system, typical dynamic system and automatic control device, performance and stability of control system, root locus analysis, analysis of frequency domain dynamic system, design of frequency domain dynamic system, design and analysis of space, space of control system and digital control system such as control system design of direct digital and digitalization of consecutive control system.

Bridge Deterioration Prediction Model Based On Hybrid Markov-System Dynamic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Widodo Soetjipto Jojok

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Instantaneous bridge failure tends to increase in Indonesia. To mitigate this condition, Indonesia’s Bridge Management System (I-BMS has been applied to continuously monitor the condition of bridges. However, I-BMS only implements visual inspection for maintenance priority of the bridge structure component instead of bridge structure system. This paper proposes a new bridge failure prediction model based on hybrid Markov-System Dynamic (MSD. System dynamic is used to represent the correlation among bridge structure components while Markov chain is used to calculate temporal probability of the bridge failure. Around 235 data of bridges in Indonesia were collected from Directorate of Bridge the Ministry of Public Works and Housing for calculating transition probability of the model. To validate the model, a medium span concrete bridge was used as a case study. The result shows that the proposed model can accurately predict the bridge condition. Besides predicting the probability of the bridge failure, this model can also be used as an early warning system for bridge monitoring activity.

A System Dynamics Model for Integrated Decision Making ...

Science.gov (United States)

EPA’s Sustainable and Healthy Communities Research Program (SHC) is conducting transdisciplinary research to inform and empower decision-makers. EPA tools and approaches are being developed to enable communities to effectively weigh and integrate human health, socioeconomic, environmental, and ecological factors into their decisions to promote community sustainability. To help achieve this goal, EPA researchers have developed systems approaches to account for the linkages among resources, assets, and outcomes managed by a community. System dynamics (SD) is a member of the family of systems approaches and provides a framework for dynamic modeling that can assist with assessing and understanding complex issues across multiple dimensions. To test the utility of such tools when applied to a real-world situation, the EPA has developed a prototype SD model for community sustainability using the proposed Durham-Orange Light Rail Project (D-O LRP) as a case study.The EPA D-O LRP SD modeling team chose the proposed D-O LRP to demonstrate that an integrated modeling approach could represent the multitude of related cross-sectoral decisions that would be made and the cascading impacts that could result from a light rail transit system connecting Durham and Chapel Hill, NC. In keeping with the SHC vision described above, the proposal for the light rail is a starting point solution for the more intractable problems of population growth, unsustainable land use, environmenta

System dynamics modelling and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Ivona Milić Beran

2015-10-01

Full Text Available System dynamics modelling is one of the best scientific methods for modelling complex, nonlinear natural, economic and technical system dynamics as it enables both monitoring and assessment of the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. Intellectual capital is defined as “the ability to transform knowledge and intangible assets into resources to create wealth for a company and a country.” Transformation of knowledge is crucial. Knowledge increases a country’s wealth only if its importance is recognized and applied differently from existing work practices. The aim of this paper is to show the efficiency of modelling system dynamics and simulating the effects of intellectual capital on economic growth. A computer simulation provided a mathematical model, providing practical insight into the dynamic behavior of the observed system, i.e. the analysis of economic growth and observation of mutual correlation between individual parameters. The results of the simulation are presented in graphical form. The dynamic model of the effects of intellectual capital on Croatia’s economic growth has been verified by comparing simulation results with existing data on economic growth.

Modeling structural change in spatial system dynamics: A Daisyworld example.

Science.gov (United States)

Neuwirth, C; Peck, A; Simonović, S P

2015-03-01

System dynamics (SD) is an effective approach for helping reveal the temporal behavior of complex systems. Although there have been recent developments in expanding SD to include systems' spatial dependencies, most applications have been restricted to the simulation of diffusion processes; this is especially true for models on structural change (e.g. LULC modeling). To address this shortcoming, a Python program is proposed to tightly couple SD software to a Geographic Information System (GIS). The approach provides the required capacities for handling bidirectional and synchronized interactions of operations between SD and GIS. In order to illustrate the concept and the techniques proposed for simulating structural changes, a fictitious environment called Daisyworld has been recreated in a spatial system dynamics (SSD) environment. The comparison of spatial and non-spatial simulations emphasizes the importance of considering spatio-temporal feedbacks. Finally, practical applications of structural change models in agriculture and disaster management are proposed.

UML Modeling for Dynamic Logistics System Based on DEVS

OpenAIRE

Zhang Zhiyong; Liu Jie; Zhang Xinhui

2013-01-01

DEVS is a hierarchical and modular system descriptive method. However, it cannot describe dynamic process and relationship of system members. This article has proposed a way to extend UML using stereotype, making it suitable for simulation modeling. To build a modeling tool, we defined atomic model class and coupled model class, both of which are in line with not only DEVS’s hierarchical and modular requirements but also UML’s object-oriented characteristics. At last, we use the tool to analy...

Smooth Adaptive Internal Model Control Based on U Model for Nonlinear Systems with Dynamic Uncertainties

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Zhao

2016-01-01

Full Text Available An improved smooth adaptive internal model control based on U model control method is presented to simplify modeling structure and parameter identification for a class of uncertain dynamic systems with unknown model parameters and bounded external disturbances. Differing from traditional adaptive methods, the proposed controller can simplify the identification of time-varying parameters in presence of bounded external disturbances. Combining the small gain theorem and the virtual equivalent system theory, learning rate of smooth adaptive internal model controller has been analyzed and the closed-loop virtual equivalent system based on discrete U model has been constructed as well. The convergence of this virtual equivalent system is proved, which further shows the convergence of the complex closed-loop discrete U model system. Finally, simulation and experimental results on a typical nonlinear dynamic system verified the feasibility of the proposed algorithm. The proposed method is shown to have lighter identification burden and higher control accuracy than the traditional adaptive controller.

Dynamic Modeling and Control of Electromechanical Coupling for Mechanical Elastic Energy Storage System

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Yang Yu

2013-01-01

Full Text Available The structural scheme of mechanical elastic energy storage (MEES system served by permanent magnet synchronous motor (PMSM and bidirectional converters is designed. The aim of the research is to model and control the complex electromechanical system. The mechanical device of the complex system is considered as a node in generalized coordinate system, the terse nonlinear dynamic model of electromechanical coupling for the electromechanical system is constructed through Lagrange-Maxwell energy method, and the detailed deduction of the mathematical model is presented in the paper. The theory of direct feedback linearization (DFL is applied to decouple the nonlinear dynamic model and convert the developed model from nonlinear to linear. The optimal control theory is utilized to accomplish speed tracking control for the linearized system. The simulation results in three different cases show that the proposed nonlinear dynamic model of MEES system is correct; the designed algorithm has a better control performance in contrast with the conventional PI control.

CADLIVE toolbox for MATLAB: automatic dynamic modeling of biochemical networks with comprehensive system analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Inoue, Kentaro; Maeda, Kazuhiro; Miyabe, Takaaki; Matsuoka, Yu; Kurata, Hiroyuki

2014-09-01

Mathematical modeling has become a standard technique to understand the dynamics of complex biochemical systems. To promote the modeling, we had developed the CADLIVE dynamic simulator that automatically converted a biochemical map into its associated mathematical model, simulated its dynamic behaviors and analyzed its robustness. To enhance the feasibility by CADLIVE and extend its functions, we propose the CADLIVE toolbox available for MATLAB, which implements not only the existing functions of the CADLIVE dynamic simulator, but also the latest tools including global parameter search methods with robustness analysis. The seamless, bottom-up processes consisting of biochemical network construction, automatic construction of its dynamic model, simulation, optimization, and S-system analysis greatly facilitate dynamic modeling, contributing to the research of systems biology and synthetic biology. This application can be freely downloaded from http://www.cadlive.jp/CADLIVE_MATLAB/ together with an instruction.

Construction Worker Fatigue Prediction Model Based on System Dynamic

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wahyu Adi Tri Joko

2017-01-01

Full Text Available Construction accident can be caused by internal and external factors such as worker fatigue and unsafe project environment. Tight schedule of construction project forcing construction worker to work overtime in long period. This situation leads to worker fatigue. This paper proposes a model to predict construction worker fatigue based on system dynamic (SD. System dynamic is used to represent correlation among internal and external factors and to simulate level of worker fatigue. To validate the model, 93 construction workers whom worked in a high rise building construction projects, were used as case study. The result shows that excessive workload, working elevation and age, are the main factors lead to construction worker fatigue. Simulation result also shows that these factors can increase worker fatigue level to 21.2% times compared to normal condition. Beside predicting worker fatigue level this model can also be used as early warning system to prevent construction worker accident

Data-Driven Modeling of Complex Systems by means of a Dynamical ANN

Science.gov (United States)

Seleznev, A.; Mukhin, D.; Gavrilov, A.; Loskutov, E.; Feigin, A.

2017-12-01

The data-driven methods for modeling and prognosis of complex dynamical systems become more and more popular in various fields due to growth of high-resolution data. We distinguish the two basic steps in such an approach: (i) determining the phase subspace of the system, or embedding, from available time series and (ii) constructing an evolution operator acting in this reduced subspace. In this work we suggest a novel approach combining these two steps by means of construction of an artificial neural network (ANN) with special topology. The proposed ANN-based model, on the one hand, projects the data onto a low-dimensional manifold, and, on the other hand, models a dynamical system on this manifold. Actually, this is a recurrent multilayer ANN which has internal dynamics and capable of generating time series. Very important point of the proposed methodology is the optimization of the model allowing us to avoid overfitting: we use Bayesian criterion to optimize the ANN structure and estimate both the degree of evolution operator nonlinearity and the complexity of nonlinear manifold which the data are projected on. The proposed modeling technique will be applied to the analysis of high-dimensional dynamical systems: Lorenz'96 model of atmospheric turbulence, producing high-dimensional space-time chaos, and quasi-geostrophic three-layer model of the Earth's atmosphere with the natural orography, describing the dynamics of synoptical vortexes as well as mesoscale blocking systems. The possibility of application of the proposed methodology to analyze real measured data is also discussed. The study was supported by the Russian Science Foundation (grant #16-12-10198).

Dynamical system approach to running Λ cosmological models

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Stachowski, Aleksander; Szydlowski, Marek

2016-01-01

We study the dynamics of cosmological models with a time dependent cosmological term. We consider five classes of models; two with the non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term Λ: Λ(H)CDM cosmologies, Λ(a)CDM cosmologies, and three with the covariant parametrization of Λ: Λ(R)CDM cosmologies, where R(t) is the Ricci scalar, Λ(φ)-cosmologies with diffusion, Λ(X)-cosmologies, where X = (1)/(2)g"α"β∇_α∇_βφ is a kinetic part of the density of the scalar field. We also consider the case of an emergent Λ(a) relation obtained from the behaviour of trajectories in a neighbourhood of an invariant submanifold. In the study of the dynamics we used dynamical system methods for investigating how an evolutionary scenario can depend on the choice of special initial conditions. We show that the methods of dynamical systems allow one to investigate all admissible solutions of a running Λ cosmology for all initial conditions. We interpret Alcaniz and Lima's approach as a scaling cosmology. We formulate the idea of an emergent cosmological term derived directly from an approximation of the exact dynamics. We show that some non-covariant parametrization of the cosmological term like Λ(a), Λ(H) gives rise to the non-physical behaviour of trajectories in the phase space. This behaviour disappears if the term Λ(a) is emergent from the covariant parametrization. (orig.)

System Dynamic Analysis of a Wind Tunnel Model with Applications to Improve Aerodynamic Data Quality

Science.gov (United States)

Buehrle, Ralph David

1997-01-01

The research investigates the effect of wind tunnel model system dynamics on measured aerodynamic data. During wind tunnel tests designed to obtain lift and drag data, the required aerodynamic measurements are the steady-state balance forces and moments, pressures, and model attitude. However, the wind tunnel model system can be subjected to unsteady aerodynamic and inertial loads which result in oscillatory translations and angular rotations. The steady-state force balance and inertial model attitude measurements are obtained by filtering and averaging data taken during conditions of high model vibrations. The main goals of this research are to characterize the effects of model system dynamics on the measured steady-state aerodynamic data and develop a correction technique to compensate for dynamically induced errors. Equations of motion are formulated for the dynamic response of the model system subjected to arbitrary aerodynamic and inertial inputs. The resulting modal model is examined to study the effects of the model system dynamic response on the aerodynamic data. In particular, the equations of motion are used to describe the effect of dynamics on the inertial model attitude, or angle of attack, measurement system that is used routinely at the NASA Langley Research Center and other wind tunnel facilities throughout the world. This activity was prompted by the inertial model attitude sensor response observed during high levels of model vibration while testing in the National Transonic Facility at the NASA Langley Research Center. The inertial attitude sensor cannot distinguish between the gravitational acceleration and centrifugal accelerations associated with wind tunnel model system vibration, which results in a model attitude measurement bias error. Bias errors over an order of magnitude greater than the required device accuracy were found in the inertial model attitude measurements during dynamic testing of two model systems. Based on a theoretical modal

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of an Underactuated System

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Duarte Madrid, Juan Libardo; Querubín, E González; Henao, P A Ospina

2017-01-01

In this paper, is used the Lagrangian classical mechanics for modeling the dynamics of an underactuated system, specifically a rotary inverted pendulum that will have two equations of motion. A basic design of the system is proposed in SOLIDWORKS 3D CAD software, which based on the material and dimensions of the model provides some physical variables necessary for modeling. In order to verify the results obtained, a comparison the CAD model simulated in the environment SimMechanics of MATLAB software with the mathematical model who was consisting of Euler-Lagrange’s equations implemented in Simulink MATLAB, solved with the ODE23tb method, included in the MATLAB libraries for the solution of systems of equations of the type and order obtained. This article also has a topological analysis of pendulum trajectories through a phase space diagram, which allows the identification of stable and unstable regions of the system. (paper)

A Dynamic Systems Theory Model of Visual Perception Development

Science.gov (United States)

Coté, Carol A.

2015-01-01

This article presents a model for understanding the development of visual perception from a dynamic systems theory perspective. It contrasts to a hierarchical or reductionist model that is often found in the occupational therapy literature. In this proposed model vision and ocular motor abilities are not foundational to perception, they are seen…

A Generalized Dynamic Model of Geared System: Establishment and Application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hui Liu

2011-12-01

Full Text Available In order to make the dynamic characteristic simulation of the ordinary and planetary gears drive more accurate and more efficient , a generalized dynamic model of geared system is established including internal and external mesh gears in this paper. It is used to build a mathematical model, which achieves the auto judgment of the gear mesh state. We do not need to concern about active or passive gears any more, and the complicated power flow analysis can be avoided. With the numerical integration computation, the axis orbits diagram and dynamic gear mesh force characteristic are acquired and the results show that the dynamic response of translational displacement is greater when contacting line direction change is considered, and with the quickly change of direction of contacting line, the amplitude of mesh force would be increased, which easily causes the damage to the gear tooth. Moreover, compared with ordinary gear, dynamic responses of planetary gear would be affected greater by the gear backlash. Simulation results show the effectiveness of the generalized dynamic model and the mathematical model.

Applications of Nonlinear Dynamics Model and Design of Complex Systems

CERN Document Server

In, Visarath; Palacios, Antonio

2009-01-01

This edited book is aimed at interdisciplinary, device-oriented, applications of nonlinear science theory and methods in complex systems. In particular, applications directed to nonlinear phenomena with space and time characteristics. Examples include: complex networks of magnetic sensor systems, coupled nano-mechanical oscillators, nano-detectors, microscale devices, stochastic resonance in multi-dimensional chaotic systems, biosensors, and stochastic signal quantization. "applications of nonlinear dynamics: model and design of complex systems" brings together the work of scientists and engineers that are applying ideas and methods from nonlinear dynamics to design and fabricate complex systems.

System Dynamics Modeling of the Massachusetts SREC Market

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Wilson Rickerson

2010-08-01

Full Text Available As states across the country struggle to increase local development of renewable energy, policymakers are turning to innovative program designs to meet their renewable electricity targets. Massachusetts recently adopted a unique, auction-based price support mechanism for the solar portion of its renewable portfolio standard. During the program development process, the Massachusetts Department of Energy Resources (DOER used system dynamics to simulate potential solar renewable energy certificate market conditions under the proposed regulations. The modeling exercise resulted in several program design changes that will lead to a more stable certificate market. System dynamics can be a useful tool for developing and improving sustainability programs.

The financial accounting model from a system dynamics' perspective

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Melse, E.

2006-01-01

This paper explores the foundation of the financial accounting model. We examine the properties of the accounting equation as the principal algorithm for the design and the development of a System Dynamics model. Key to the perspective is the foundational requirement that resolves the temporal

A system dynamics model for tritium cycle of pulsed fusion reactor

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhu, Zuolong; Nie, Baojie; Chen, Dehong

2017-01-01

As great challenges and uncertainty exist in achieving steady plasma burning, pulsed plasma burning may be a potential scenario for fusion engineering test reactor, even for fusion DEMOnstration reactor. In order to analyze dynamic tritium inventory and tritium self-sufficiency for pulsed fusion systems, a system dynamics model of tritium cycle was developed on the basis of earlier version of Tritium Analysis program for fusion System (TAS). The model was verified with TRIMO, which was developed by KIT in Germany. Tritium self-sufficiency and dynamic tritium inventory assessment were performed for a typical fusion engineering test reactor. The verification results show that the system dynamics model can be used for tritium cycle analysis of pulsed fusion reactor with sufficient reliability. The assessment results of tritium self-sufficiency indicate that the fusion reactor might only need several hundred gram tritium to startup if achieved high efficient tritium handling ability (Referred ITER: 1 h). And the initial tritium startup inventory in pulsed fusion reactor is determined by the combined influence of pulse length, burn availability, and tritium recycle time. Meanwhile, tritium self-sufficiency can be achieved under the defined condition.

A system dynamics model for tritium cycle of pulsed fusion reactor

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Zhu, Zuolong; Nie, Baojie [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China); University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei, Anhui, 230027 (China); Chen, Dehong, E-mail: dehong.chen@fds.org.cn [Key Laboratory of Neutronics and Radiation Safety, Institute of Nuclear Energy Safety Technology, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Hefei, Anhui, 230031 (China)

2017-05-15

As great challenges and uncertainty exist in achieving steady plasma burning, pulsed plasma burning may be a potential scenario for fusion engineering test reactor, even for fusion DEMOnstration reactor. In order to analyze dynamic tritium inventory and tritium self-sufficiency for pulsed fusion systems, a system dynamics model of tritium cycle was developed on the basis of earlier version of Tritium Analysis program for fusion System (TAS). The model was verified with TRIMO, which was developed by KIT in Germany. Tritium self-sufficiency and dynamic tritium inventory assessment were performed for a typical fusion engineering test reactor. The verification results show that the system dynamics model can be used for tritium cycle analysis of pulsed fusion reactor with sufficient reliability. The assessment results of tritium self-sufficiency indicate that the fusion reactor might only need several hundred gram tritium to startup if achieved high efficient tritium handling ability (Referred ITER: 1 h). And the initial tritium startup inventory in pulsed fusion reactor is determined by the combined influence of pulse length, burn availability, and tritium recycle time. Meanwhile, tritium self-sufficiency can be achieved under the defined condition.

Explorations in combining cognitive models of individuals and system dynamics models of groups.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Backus, George A.

2008-07-01

This report documents a demonstration model of interacting insurgent leadership, military leadership, government leadership, and societal dynamics under a variety of interventions. The primary focus of the work is the portrayal of a token societal model that responds to leadership activities. The model also includes a linkage between leadership and society that implicitly represents the leadership subordinates as they directly interact with the population. The societal model is meant to demonstrate the efficacy and viability of using System Dynamics (SD) methods to simulate populations and that these can then connect to cognitive models depicting individuals. SD models typically focus on average behavior and thus have limited applicability to describe small groups or individuals. On the other hand, cognitive models readily describe individual behavior but can become cumbersome when used to describe populations. Realistic security situations are invariably a mix of individual and population dynamics. Therefore, the ability to tie SD models to cognitive models provides a critical capability that would be otherwise be unavailable.

Propulsion System Dynamic Modeling for the NASA Supersonic Concept Vehicle: AeroPropulsoServoElasticity

Science.gov (United States)

Kopasakis, George; Connolly, Joseph; Seidel, Jonathan

2014-01-01

A summary of the propulsion system modeling under NASA's High Speed Project (HSP) AeroPropulsoServoElasticity (APSE) task is provided with a focus on the propulsion system for the low-boom supersonic configuration developed by Lockheed Martin and referred to as the N+2 configuration. This summary includes details on the effort to date to develop computational models for the various propulsion system components. The objective of this paper is to summarize the model development effort in this task, while providing more detail in the modeling areas that have not been previously published. The purpose of the propulsion system modeling and the overall APSE effort is to develop an integrated dynamic vehicle model to conduct appropriate unsteady analysis of supersonic vehicle performance. This integrated APSE system model concept includes the propulsion system model, and the vehicle structural-aerodynamics model. The development to date of such a preliminary integrated model will also be summarized in this report.propulsion system dynamics, the structural dynamics, and aerodynamics.

Statistically accurate low-order models for uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Sapsis, Themistoklis P; Majda, Andrew J

2013-08-20

A framework for low-order predictive statistical modeling and uncertainty quantification in turbulent dynamical systems is developed here. These reduced-order, modified quasilinear Gaussian (ROMQG) algorithms apply to turbulent dynamical systems in which there is significant linear instability or linear nonnormal dynamics in the unperturbed system and energy-conserving nonlinear interactions that transfer energy from the unstable modes to the stable modes where dissipation occurs, resulting in a statistical steady state; such turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in geophysical and engineering turbulence. The ROMQG method involves constructing a low-order, nonlinear, dynamical system for the mean and covariance statistics in the reduced subspace that has the unperturbed statistics as a stable fixed point and optimally incorporates the indirect effect of non-Gaussian third-order statistics for the unperturbed system in a systematic calibration stage. This calibration procedure is achieved through information involving only the mean and covariance statistics for the unperturbed equilibrium. The performance of the ROMQG algorithm is assessed on two stringent test cases: the 40-mode Lorenz 96 model mimicking midlatitude atmospheric turbulence and two-layer baroclinic models for high-latitude ocean turbulence with over 125,000 degrees of freedom. In the Lorenz 96 model, the ROMQG algorithm with just a single mode captures the transient response to random or deterministic forcing. For the baroclinic ocean turbulence models, the inexpensive ROMQG algorithm with 252 modes, less than 0.2% of the total, captures the nonlinear response of the energy, the heat flux, and even the one-dimensional energy and heat flux spectra.

Low-order dynamical system model of a fully developed turbulent channel flow

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, Nicholas; Tutkun, Murat; Cal, Raúl Bayoán

2017-06-01

A reduced order model of a turbulent channel flow is composed from a direct numerical simulation database hosted at the Johns Hopkins University. Snapshot proper orthogonal decomposition (POD) is used to identify the Hilbert space from which the reduced order model is obtained, as the POD basis is defined to capture the optimal energy content by mode. The reduced order model is defined by coupling the evolution of the dynamic POD mode coefficients through their respective time derivative with a least-squares polynomial fit of terms up to third order. Parameters coupling the dynamics of the POD basis are defined in analog to those produced in the classical Galerkin projection. The resulting low-order dynamical system is tested for a range of basis modes demonstrating that the non-linear mode interactions do not lead to a monotonic decrease in error propagation. A basis of five POD modes accounts for 50% of the integrated turbulence kinetic energy but captures only the largest features of the turbulence in the channel flow and is not able to reflect the anticipated flow dynamics. Using five modes, the low-order model is unable to accurately reproduce Reynolds stresses, and the root-mean-square error of the predicted stresses is as great as 30%. Increasing the basis to 28 modes accounts for 90% of the kinetic energy and adds intermediate scales to the dynamical system. The difference between the time derivatives of the random coefficients associated with individual modes and their least-squares fit is amplified in the numerical integration leading to unstable long-time solutions. Periodic recalibration of the dynamical system is undertaken by limiting the integration time to the range of the sampled data and offering the dynamical system new initial conditions. Renewed initial conditions are found by pushing the mode coefficients in the end of the integration time toward a known point along the original trajectories identified through a least-squares projection. Under

Equation-free model reduction for complex dynamical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Le Maitre, O. P.; Mathelin, L.; Le Maitre, O. P.

2010-01-01

This paper presents a reduced model strategy for simulation of complex physical systems. A classical reduced basis is first constructed relying on proper orthogonal decomposition of the system. Then, unlike the alternative approaches, such as Galerkin projection schemes for instance, an equation-free reduced model is constructed. It consists in the determination of an explicit transformation, or mapping, for the evolution over a coarse time-step of the projection coefficients of the system state on the reduced basis. The mapping is expressed as an explicit polynomial transformation of the projection coefficients and is computed once and for all in a pre-processing stage using the detailed model equation of the system. The reduced system can then be advanced in time by successive applications of the mapping. The CPU cost of the method lies essentially in the mapping approximation which is performed offline, in a parallel fashion, and only once. Subsequent application of the mapping to perform a time-integration is carried out at a low cost thanks to its explicit character. Application of the method is considered for the 2-D flow around a circular cylinder. We investigate the effectiveness of the reduced model in rendering the dynamics for both asymptotic state and transient stages. It is shown that the method leads to a stable and accurate time-integration for only a fraction of the cost of a detailed simulation, provided that the mapping is properly approximated and the reduced basis remains relevant for the dynamics investigated. (authors)

Review of Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Large Scale Belt Conveyor System

Science.gov (United States)

He, Qing; Li, Hong

Belt conveyor is one of the most important devices to transport bulk-solid material for long distance. Dynamic analysis is the key to decide whether the design is rational in technique, safe and reliable in running, feasible in economy. It is very important to study dynamic properties, improve efficiency and productivity, guarantee conveyor safe, reliable and stable running. The dynamic researches and applications of large scale belt conveyor are discussed. The main research topics, the state-of-the-art of dynamic researches on belt conveyor are analyzed. The main future works focus on dynamic analysis, modeling and simulation of main components and whole system, nonlinear modeling, simulation and vibration analysis of large scale conveyor system.

Use of measurement theory for operationalization and quantification of psychological constructs in systems dynamics modelling

Science.gov (United States)

Fitkov-Norris, Elena; Yeghiazarian, Ara

2016-11-01

The analytical tools available to social scientists have traditionally been adapted from tools originally designed for analysis of natural science phenomena. This article discusses the applicability of systems dynamics - a qualitative based modelling approach, as a possible analysis and simulation tool that bridges the gap between social and natural sciences. After a brief overview of the systems dynamics modelling methodology, the advantages as well as limiting factors of systems dynamics to the potential applications in the field of social sciences and human interactions are discussed. The issues arise with regards to operationalization and quantification of latent constructs at the simulation building stage of the systems dynamics methodology and measurement theory is proposed as a ready and waiting solution to the problem of dynamic model calibration, with a view of improving simulation model reliability and validity and encouraging the development of standardised, modular system dynamics models that can be used in social science research.

Dynamic modeling of hybrid renewable energy systems for off-grid applications

Science.gov (United States)

Hasemeyer, Mark David

The volatile prices of fossil fuels and their contribution to global warming have caused many people to turn to renewable energy systems. Many developing communities are forced to use these systems as they are too far from electrical distribution. As a result, numerous software models have been developed to simulate hybrid renewable energy systems. However almost, if not all, implementations are static in design. A static design limits the ability of the model to account for changes over time. Dynamic modeling can be used to fill the gaps where other modeling techniques fall short. This modeling practice allows the user to account for the effects of technological and economic factors over time. These factors can include changes in energy demand, energy production, and income level. Dynamic modeling can be particularly useful for developing communities who are off-grid and developing at rapid rates. In this study, a dynamic model was used to evaluate a real world system. A non-governmental organization interested in improving their current infrastructure was selected. Five different scenarios were analyzed and compared in order to discover which factors the model is most sensitive to. In four of the scenarios, a new energy system was purchased in order to account for the opening of a restaurant that would be used as a source of local income generation. These scenarios were then compared to a base case in which a new system was not purchased, and the restaurant was not opened. Finally, the results were used to determine which variables had the greatest impact on the various outputs of the simulation.

System Dynamics Modeling for Emergency Operating System Resilience

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Eng, Ang Wei; Kim, Jong Hyun [KEPCO International Nuclear Graduate School, Ulsan (Korea, Republic of)

2014-10-15

The purpose of this paper is to present a causal model which explain human error cause-effect relationships of emergency operating system (EOS) by using system dynamics (SD) approach. The causal model will further quantified by analyzes nuclear power plant incidents/accidents data in Korea for simulation modeling. Emergency Operating System (EOS) is generally defined as a system which consists personnel, human-machine interface and procedures; and how these components interact and coordinate to respond to an incident or accident. Understanding the behavior of EOS especially personnel behavior and the factors influencing it during accident will contribute in human reliability evaluation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method which assesses how human decisions and actions affect to system risk and further used to reduce the human errors probability. There are many HRA method used performance influencing factors (PIFs) to identify the causes of human errors. However, these methods have several limitations. In HRA, PIFs are assumed independent each other and relationship between them are not been study. Through the SD simulation, users able to simulate various situation of nuclear power plant respond to emergency from human and organizational aspects. The simulation also provides users a comprehensive view on how to improve the safety in plants. This paper presents a causal model that explained cause-effect relationships of EOS human. Through SD simulation, users able to identify the main contribution of human error easily. Users can also use SD simulation to predict when and how a human error occurs over time. In future work, the SD model can be expanded more on low level factors. The relationship within low level factors can investigated by using correlation method and further included in the model. This can enables users to study more detailed human error cause-effect relationships and the behavior of EOS. Another improvement can be made is on EOS factors

System Dynamics Modeling for Emergency Operating System Resilience

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Eng, Ang Wei; Kim, Jong Hyun

2014-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to present a causal model which explain human error cause-effect relationships of emergency operating system (EOS) by using system dynamics (SD) approach. The causal model will further quantified by analyzes nuclear power plant incidents/accidents data in Korea for simulation modeling. Emergency Operating System (EOS) is generally defined as a system which consists personnel, human-machine interface and procedures; and how these components interact and coordinate to respond to an incident or accident. Understanding the behavior of EOS especially personnel behavior and the factors influencing it during accident will contribute in human reliability evaluation. Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) is a method which assesses how human decisions and actions affect to system risk and further used to reduce the human errors probability. There are many HRA method used performance influencing factors (PIFs) to identify the causes of human errors. However, these methods have several limitations. In HRA, PIFs are assumed independent each other and relationship between them are not been study. Through the SD simulation, users able to simulate various situation of nuclear power plant respond to emergency from human and organizational aspects. The simulation also provides users a comprehensive view on how to improve the safety in plants. This paper presents a causal model that explained cause-effect relationships of EOS human. Through SD simulation, users able to identify the main contribution of human error easily. Users can also use SD simulation to predict when and how a human error occurs over time. In future work, the SD model can be expanded more on low level factors. The relationship within low level factors can investigated by using correlation method and further included in the model. This can enables users to study more detailed human error cause-effect relationships and the behavior of EOS. Another improvement can be made is on EOS factors

Dynamics and Collapse in a Power System Model with Voltage Variation: The Damping Effect.

Science.gov (United States)

Ma, Jinpeng; Sun, Yong; Yuan, Xiaoming; Kurths, Jürgen; Zhan, Meng

2016-01-01

Complex nonlinear phenomena are investigated in a basic power system model of the single-machine-infinite-bus (SMIB) with a synchronous generator modeled by a classical third-order differential equation including both angle dynamics and voltage dynamics, the so-called flux decay equation. In contrast, for the second-order differential equation considering the angle dynamics only, it is the classical swing equation. Similarities and differences of the dynamics generated between the third-order model and the second-order one are studied. We mainly find that, for positive damping, these two models show quite similar behavior, namely, stable fixed point, stable limit cycle, and their coexistence for different parameters. However, for negative damping, the second-order system can only collapse, whereas for the third-order model, more complicated behavior may happen, such as stable fixed point, limit cycle, quasi-periodicity, and chaos. Interesting partial collapse phenomena for angle instability only and not for voltage instability are also found here, including collapse from quasi-periodicity and from chaos etc. These findings not only provide a basic physical picture for power system dynamics in the third-order model incorporating voltage dynamics, but also enable us a deeper understanding of the complex dynamical behavior and even leading to a design of oscillation damping in electric power systems.

Dynamics Analysis for Hydroturbine Regulating System Based on Matrix Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Jiafu Wei

2017-01-01

Full Text Available The hydraulic turbine model is the key factor which affects the analysis precision of the hydraulic turbine governing system. This paper discusses the basic principle of the hydraulic turbine matrix model and gives two methods to realize. Using the characteristic matrix to describe unit flow and torque and their relationship with the opening and unit speed, it can accurately represent the nonlinear characteristics of the turbine, effectively improve the convergence of simulation process, and meet the needs of high precision real-time simulation of power system. Through the simulation of a number of power stations, it indicates that, by analyzing the dynamic process of the hydraulic turbine regulating with 5-order matrix model, the calculation results and field test data will have good consistency, and it can better meet the needs of power system dynamic simulation.

Optimization Scheduling Model for Wind-thermal Power System Considering the Dynamic penalty factor

Science.gov (United States)

PENG, Siyu; LUO, Jianchun; WANG, Yunyu; YANG, Jun; RAN, Hong; PENG, Xiaodong; HUANG, Ming; LIU, Wanyu

2018-03-01

In this paper, a new dynamic economic dispatch model for power system is presented.Objective function of the proposed model presents a major novelty in the dynamic economic dispatch including wind farm: introduced the “Dynamic penalty factor”, This factor could be computed by using fuzzy logic considering both the variable nature of active wind power and power demand, and it could change the wind curtailment cost according to the different state of the power system. Case studies were carried out on the IEEE30 system. Results show that the proposed optimization model could mitigate the wind curtailment and the total cost effectively, demonstrate the validity and effectiveness of the proposed model.

Understanding ecohydrological connectivity in savannas: A system dynamics modeling approach

Science.gov (United States)

Ecohydrological connectivity is a system-level property that results from the linkages in the networks of water transport through ecosystems, by which feedback effects and other emergent system behaviors may be generated. We created a systems dynamic model that represents primary ecohydrological net...

AeroPropulsoServoElasticity: Dynamic Modeling of the Variable Cycle Propulsion System

Science.gov (United States)

Kopasakis, George

2012-01-01

This presentation was made at the 2012 Fundamental Aeronautics Program Technical Conference and it covers research work for the Dynamic Modeling of the Variable cycle Propulsion System that was done under the Supersonics Project, in the area of AeroPropulsoServoElasticity. The presentation covers the objective for the propulsion system dynamic modeling work, followed by the work that has been done so far to model the variable Cycle Engine, modeling of the inlet, the nozzle, the modeling that has been done to model the affects of flow distortion, and finally presenting some concluding remarks and future plans.

Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Huirong; Lim, C. W.; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

2014-01-01

The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony. PMID:25254225

Sustainable deforestation evaluation model and system dynamics analysis.

Science.gov (United States)

Feng, Huirong; Lim, C W; Chen, Liqun; Zhou, Xinnian; Zhou, Chengjun; Lin, Yi

2014-01-01

The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

Sustainable Deforestation Evaluation Model and System Dynamics Analysis

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Huirong Feng

2014-01-01

Full Text Available The current study used the improved fuzzy analytic hierarchy process to construct a sustainable deforestation development evaluation system and evaluation model, which has refined a diversified system to evaluate the theory of sustainable deforestation development. Leveraging the visual image of the system dynamics causal and power flow diagram, we illustrated here that sustainable forestry development is a complex system that encompasses the interaction and dynamic development of ecology, economy, and society and has reflected the time dynamic effect of sustainable forestry development from the three combined effects. We compared experimental programs to prove the direct and indirect impacts of the ecological, economic, and social effects of the corresponding deforest techniques and fully reflected the importance of developing scientific and rational ecological harvesting and transportation technologies. Experimental and theoretical results illustrated that light cableway skidding is an ecoskidding method that is beneficial for the sustainable development of resources, the environment, the economy, and society and forecasted the broad potential applications of light cableway skidding in timber production technology. Furthermore, we discussed the sustainable development countermeasures of forest ecosystems from the aspects of causality, interaction, and harmony.

Discrete event dynamic system (DES)-based modeling for dynamic material flow in the pyroprocess

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Hyo Jik; Kim, Kiho; Kim, Ho Dong; Lee, Han Soo

2011-01-01

A modeling and simulation methodology was proposed in order to implement the dynamic material flow of the pyroprocess. Since the static mass balance provides the limited information on the material flow, it is hard to predict dynamic behavior according to event. Therefore, a discrete event system (DES)-based model named, PyroFlow, was developed at the Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute (KAERI). PyroFlow is able to calculate dynamic mass balance and also show various dynamic operational results in real time. By using PyroFlow, it is easy to rapidly predict unforeseeable results, such as throughput in unit process, accumulated product in buffer and operation status. As preliminary simulations, bottleneck analyses in the pyroprocess were carried out and consequently it was presented that operation strategy had influence on the productivity of the pyroprocess.

A New Dynamic Model for Nuclear Fuel Cycle System Analysis

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Choi, Sungyeol; Ko, Won Il

2014-01-01

The evaluation of mass flow is a complex process where numerous parameters and their complex interaction are involved. Given that many nuclear power countries have light and heavy water reactors and associated fuel cycle technologies, the mass flow analysis has to consider a dynamic transition from the open fuel cycle to other cycles over decades or a century. Although an equilibrium analysis provides insight concerning the end-states of fuel cycle transitions, it cannot answer when we need specific management options, whether the current plan can deliver these options when needed, and how fast the equilibrium can be achieved. As a pilot application, the government brought several experts together to conduct preliminary evaluations for nuclear fuel cycle options in 2010. According to Table 1, they concluded that the closed nuclear fuel cycle has long-term advantages over the open fuel cycle. However, it is still necessary to assess these options in depth and to optimize transition paths of these long-term options with advanced dynamic fuel cycle models. A dynamic simulation model for nuclear fuel cycle systems was developed and its dynamic mass flow analysis capability was validated against the results of existing models. This model can reflects a complex combination of various fuel cycle processes and reactor types, from once-through to multiple recycling, within a single nuclear fuel cycle system. For the open fuel cycle, the results of the developed model are well matched with the results of other models

Mathematical Modeling and Dimension Reduction in Dynamical Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Elmegård, Michael

. These systems are generically nonlinear and the studies of them often become enormously complex. The framework in which such systems are best understood is via the theory of dynamical systems, where the critical behavior is systematically analyzed by performing bifurcation theory. In that context the current...... thesis is attacking two problems. The first is concerned with the mathematical modelling and analysis of an experiment of a vibro-impacting beam. This type of dynamical system has received much attention in the recent years and they occur frequently in mechanical applications, where they induce noise...... the existence of isolas of subharmonic orbits. These were then verified in the practical experiment in the lab. The second problem that is addressed in the current thesis is a problem that has developed as a consequence of the increasing power of computers which has created the demand for analysis of ever more...

Advanced High-Temperature Reactor Dynamic System Model Development: April 2012 Status

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Qualls, A L; Cetiner, M S; Wilson, Jr, T L

2012-04-30

The Advanced High-Temperature Reactor (AHTR) is a large-output fluoride-salt-cooled high-temperature reactor (FHR). An early-phase preconceptual design of a 1500 MW(e) power plant was developed in 2011 [Refs. 1 and 2]. An updated version of this plant is shown as Fig. 1. FHRs feature low-pressure liquid fluoride salt cooling, coated-particle fuel, a high-temperature power cycle, and fully passive decay heat rejection. The AHTR is designed to be a “walk away” reactor that requires no action to prevent large off-site releases following even severe reactor accidents. This report describes the development of dynamic system models used to further the AHTR design toward that goal. These models predict system response during warmup, startup, normal operation, and limited off-normal operating conditions. Severe accidents that include a loss-of-fluid inventory are not currently modeled. The scope of the models is limited to the plant power system, including the reactor, the primary and intermediate heat transport systems, the power conversion system, and safety-related or auxiliary heat removal systems. The primary coolant system, the intermediate heat transport system and the reactor building structure surrounding them are shown in Fig. 2. These systems are modeled in the most detail because the passive interaction of the primary system with the surrounding structure and heat removal systems, and ultimately the environment, protects the reactor fuel and the vessel from damage during severe reactor transients. The reactor silo also plays an important role during system warmup. The dynamic system modeling tools predict system performance and response. The goal is to accurately predict temperatures and pressures within the primary, intermediate, and power conversion systems and to study the impacts of design changes on those responses. The models are design tools and are not intended to be used in reactor qualification. The important details to capture in the primary

Dynamic Causal Models and Autopoietic Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

OLIVIER DAVID

2007-01-01

Full Text Available Dynamic Causal Modelling (DCM and the theory of autopoietic systems are two important conceptual frameworks. In this review, we suggest that they can be combined to answer important questions about self-organising systems like the brain. DCM has been developed recently by the neuroimaging community to explain, using biophysical models, the non-invasive brain imaging data are caused by neural processes. It allows one to ask mechanistic questions about the implementation of cerebral processes. In DCM the parameters of biophysical models are estimated from measured data and the evidence for each model is evaluated. This enables one to test different functional hypotheses (i.e., models for a given data set. Autopoiesis and related formal theories of biological systems as autonomous machines represent a body of concepts with many successful applications. However, autopoiesis has remained largely theoretical and has not penetrated the empiricism of cognitive neuroscience. In this review, we try to show the connections that exist between DCM and autopoiesis. In particular, we propose a simple modification to standard formulations of DCM that includes autonomous processes. The idea is to exploit the machinery of the system identification of DCMs in neuroimaging to test the face validity of the autopoietic theory applied to neural subsystems. We illustrate the theoretical concepts and their implications for interpreting electroencephalographic signals acquired during amygdala stimulation in an epileptic patient. The results suggest that DCM represents a relevant biophysical approach to brain functional organisation, with a potential that is yet to be fully evaluated

Dynamics of pesticide uptake into plants: From system functioning to parsimonious modeling

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Fantke, Peter; Wieland, Peter; Wannaz, Cedric

2013-01-01

Dynamic plant uptake models are suitable for assessing environmental fate and behavior of toxic chemicals in food crops. However, existing tools mostly lack in-depth analysis of system dynamics. Furthermore, no existing model is available as parameterized version that is easily applicable for use...

Machine Learning-based discovery of closures for reduced models of dynamical systems

Science.gov (United States)

Pan, Shaowu; Duraisamy, Karthik

2017-11-01

Despite the successful application of machine learning (ML) in fields such as image processing and speech recognition, only a few attempts has been made toward employing ML to represent the dynamics of complex physical systems. Previous attempts mostly focus on parameter calibration or data-driven augmentation of existing models. In this work we present a ML framework to discover closure terms in reduced models of dynamical systems and provide insights into potential problems associated with data-driven modeling. Based on exact closure models for linear system, we propose a general linear closure framework from viewpoint of optimization. The framework is based on trapezoidal approximation of convolution term. Hyperparameters that need to be determined include temporal length of memory effect, number of sampling points, and dimensions of hidden states. To circumvent the explicit specification of memory effect, a general framework inspired from neural networks is also proposed. We conduct both a priori and posteriori evaluations of the resulting model on a number of non-linear dynamical systems. This work was supported in part by AFOSR under the project ``LES Modeling of Non-local effects using Statistical Coarse-graining'' with Dr. Jean-Luc Cambier as the technical monitor.

The Integrated Use of Enterprise and System Dynamics Modelling Techniques in Support of Business Decisions

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

K. Agyapong-Kodua

2012-01-01

Full Text Available Enterprise modelling techniques support business process (reengineering by capturing existing processes and based on perceived outputs, support the design of future process models capable of meeting enterprise requirements. System dynamics modelling tools on the other hand are used extensively for policy analysis and modelling aspects of dynamics which impact on businesses. In this paper, the use of enterprise and system dynamics modelling techniques has been integrated to facilitate qualitative and quantitative reasoning about the structures and behaviours of processes and resource systems used by a Manufacturing Enterprise during the production of composite bearings. The case study testing reported has led to the specification of a new modelling methodology for analysing and managing dynamics and complexities in production systems. This methodology is based on a systematic transformation process, which synergises the use of a selection of public domain enterprise modelling, causal loop and continuous simulation modelling techniques. The success of the modelling process defined relies on the creation of useful CIMOSA process models which are then converted to causal loops. The causal loop models are then structured and translated to equivalent dynamic simulation models using the proprietary continuous simulation modelling tool iThink.

Modelling the dynamics of traits involved in fighting-predators-prey system.

Science.gov (United States)

Kooi, B W

2015-12-01

We study the dynamics of a predator-prey system where predators fight for captured prey besides searching for and handling (and digestion) of the prey. Fighting for prey is modelled by a continuous time hawk-dove game dynamics where the gain depends on the amount of disputed prey while the costs for fighting is constant per fighting event. The strategy of the predator-population is quantified by a trait being the proportion of the number of predator-individuals playing hawk tactics. The dynamics of the trait is described by two models of adaptation: the replicator dynamics (RD) and the adaptive dynamics (AD). In the RD-approach a variant individual with an adapted trait value changes the population's strategy, and consequently its trait value, only when its payoff is larger than the population average. In the AD-approach successful replacement of the resident population after invasion of a rare variant population with an adapted trait value is a step in a sequence changing the population's strategy, and hence its trait value. The main aim is to compare the consequences of the two adaptation models. In an equilibrium predator-prey system this will lead to convergence to a neutral singular strategy, while in the oscillatory system to a continuous singular strategy where in this endpoint the resident population is not invasible by any variant population. In equilibrium (low prey carrying capacity) RD and AD-approach give the same results, however not always in a periodically oscillating system (high prey carrying-capacity) where the trait is density-dependent. For low costs the predator population is monomorphic (only hawks) while for high costs dimorphic (hawks and doves). These results illustrate that intra-specific trait dynamics matters in predator-prey dynamics.

Availability modeling and optimization of dynamic multi-state series–parallel systems with random reconfiguration

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Li, Y.F.; Peng, R.

2014-01-01

Most studies on multi-state series–parallel systems focus on the static type of system architecture. However, it is insufficient to model many complex industrial systems having several operation phases and each requires a subset of the subsystems combined together to perform certain tasks. To bridge this gap, this study takes into account this type of dynamic behavior in the multi-state series–parallel system and proposes an analytical approach to calculate the system availability and the operation cost. In this approach, Markov process is used to model the dynamics of system phase changing and component state changing, Markov reward model is used to calculate the operation cost associated with the dynamics, and universal generating function (UGF) is used to build system availability function from the system phase model and the component models. Based upon these models, an optimization problem is formulated to minimize the total system cost with the constraint that system availability is greater than a desired level. The genetic algorithm is then applied to solve the optimization problem. The proposed modeling and solution procedures are illustrated on a system design problem modified from a real-world maritime oil transportation system

Dynamic systems models new methods of parameter and state estimation

CERN Document Server

2016-01-01

This monograph is an exposition of a novel method for solving inverse problems, a method of parameter estimation for time series data collected from simulations of real experiments. These time series might be generated by measuring the dynamics of aircraft in flight, by the function of a hidden Markov model used in bioinformatics or speech recognition or when analyzing the dynamics of asset pricing provided by the nonlinear models of financial mathematics. Dynamic Systems Models demonstrates the use of algorithms based on polynomial approximation which have weaker requirements than already-popular iterative methods. Specifically, they do not require a first approximation of a root vector and they allow non-differentiable elements in the vector functions being approximated. The text covers all the points necessary for the understanding and use of polynomial approximation from the mathematical fundamentals, through algorithm development to the application of the method in, for instance, aeroplane flight dynamic...

Dynamic Modelling of a Knowledge Management System Evolution for a Technological Corporation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pershukov, V.; Belenkaya, N.; Sheveleva, S.; Kuptsov, I.; Andrianov, A.; Fesenko, G.

2016-01-01

Full text: The paper describes a dynamic mathematical model of a knowledge management system for a technological corporation. The model consists of three equations for generalized variables which characterize the human capacity, accumulated knowledge and profits interrelated by means of the Cobb–Douglas production function. The presented model is intended to simulate the system evolution over time including identification of possible catastrophic behavior of the system and can be used to solve various problems of forecasting the development of knowledge management systems in technological corporations, and assess the effectiveness of organizational measures aimed at improving the system efficiency. Using this model, it is possible to simulate the system evolution over time and conduct scenario research in the changing internal and external conditions as well as select the optimal system parameters in order to achieve certain goals and formulate requirements for the system components. The authors present the results of applying this model in simulating the dynamics of the knowledge management system development in a technological corporation and discuss some methodological issues related to the mathematical modeling of processes and models of knowledge management. (author

PRESS-based EFOR algorithm for the dynamic parametrical modeling of nonlinear MDOF systems

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Haopeng; Zhu, Yunpeng; Luo, Zhong; Han, Qingkai

2017-09-01

In response to the identification problem concerning multi-degree of freedom (MDOF) nonlinear systems, this study presents the extended forward orthogonal regression (EFOR) based on predicted residual sums of squares (PRESS) to construct a nonlinear dynamic parametrical model. The proposed parametrical model is based on the non-linear autoregressive with exogenous inputs (NARX) model and aims to explicitly reveal the physical design parameters of the system. The PRESS-based EFOR algorithm is proposed to identify such a model for MDOF systems. By using the algorithm, we built a common-structured model based on the fundamental concept of evaluating its generalization capability through cross-validation. The resulting model aims to prevent over-fitting with poor generalization performance caused by the average error reduction ratio (AERR)-based EFOR algorithm. Then, a functional relationship is established between the coefficients of the terms and the design parameters of the unified model. Moreover, a 5-DOF nonlinear system is taken as a case to illustrate the modeling of the proposed algorithm. Finally, a dynamic parametrical model of a cantilever beam is constructed from experimental data. Results indicate that the dynamic parametrical model of nonlinear systems, which depends on the PRESS-based EFOR, can accurately predict the output response, thus providing a theoretical basis for the optimal design of modeling methods for MDOF nonlinear systems.

An energy security management model using quality function deployment and system dynamics

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Shin, Juneseuk; Shin, Wan-Seon; Lee, Changyong

2013-01-01

An energy security management model using quality function deployment (QFD) and system dynamics (SD) is suggested for application in public policymaking in developing economies. Through QFD, experts are guided toward identifying key energy security components, including indicators and policies, and in making these components consistent, focused, and customized for a particular country. Using these components as inputs, we construct an intermediate complex system dynamics model with a minimal number of crucial interactions. Key policies are simulated and evaluated in terms of the improvement of key indicators. Even with little data, our approach provides a coherent, useful, and customized energy security management model to help policymakers more effectively manage national energy security. To demonstrate its advantages, the model is applied to the Korean gas sector as an example. - Highlights: ► We suggest an energy security management model for developing economies. ► We identify a consistent set of key components, indicators and policies by using QFD. ► A coherent and practical system dynamics model based on QFD's output is constructed. ► The model is applied to the Korean gas sector as an example

Identification of linear error-models with projected dynamical systems

Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

Krejčí, Pavel; Kuhnen, K.

2004-01-01

Roč. 10, č. 1 (2004), s. 59-91 ISSN 1387-3954 Keywords : identification * error models * projected dynamical systems Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics Impact factor: 0.292, year: 2004 http://www.informaworld.com/smpp/content~db=all~content=a713682517

Fuel cell/back-up battery hybrid energy conversion systems: Dynamic modeling and harmonic considerations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fathabadi, Hassan

2015-01-01

Highlights: • Novel technique to completely eliminate the harmful harmonics of fuel cell system. • Presenting a novel high accurate detailed electrochemical dynamic model of fuel cells. • Back-up battery system to compensate the slow dynamic response of fuel cell system. • Exact analysis of real electrochemical reactions occurring inside fuel cells. - Abstract: In this study, a novel dynamic model of fuel cells is presented. High accurate static and dynamic responses of the proposed model are experimentally validated by comparing simulated results with real experimental data. The obtained model together with theoretical results shows that a fuel cell or a fuel cell stack has very slow dynamic response, so that, it cannot adapt itself to the fast variations in load demand. It is shown that for adapting well a fuel cell stack to the load demand, the stack should be equipped with a proposed back-up battery system which compensates the slow dynamic response of the stack by providing a bidirectional path to transmit/absorb the extra instant power. It is proved that the conventional switching waveforms used in the converters of the stacks and back-up systems produce an enormous amount of harmful harmonics. Then, a novel technique is proposed to completely eliminate main harmful harmonics. It is worthwhile to note that all the other techniques only reduce the harmful harmonics. Simulated results verify that the back-up battery system together with applying the proposed technique provide a fast dynamic response for the fuel cell/back-up battery system, and also completely eliminate the main harmful harmonics

An Exploration of the System Dynamics Field : A Model-Based Policy Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rose, A.C.

2014-01-01

This report presents a first look study at the field of System Dynamics. The objective of the study is to perform a model-based policy analysis in order to investigate the future advancement of the System Dynamics field. The aim of this investigation is to determine what this advancement should look

System dynamics modeling on health care: supply and demand of dementia care

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Rouwette, E.A.J.A.

2006-01-01

This presentation will address the use of system dynamics models to analyze complex problems in health care. System dynamics has been used on health related issues since at least the 1960s and in the Netherlands since the 1980s. In this approach a group of experts and stakeholders participates in

Understanding bicycling in cities using system dynamics modelling.

Science.gov (United States)

Macmillan, Alexandra; Woodcock, James

2017-12-01

Increasing urban bicycling has established net benefits for human and environmental health. Questions remain about which policies are needed and in what order, to achieve an increase in cycling while avoiding negative consequences. Novel ways of considering cycling policy are needed, bringing together expertise across policy, community and research to develop a shared understanding of the dynamically complex cycling system. In this paper we use a collaborative learning process to develop a dynamic causal model of urban cycling to develop consensus about the nature and order of policies needed in different cycling contexts to optimise outcomes. We used participatory system dynamics modelling to develop causal loop diagrams (CLDs) of cycling in three contrasting contexts: Auckland, London and Nijmegen. We combined qualitative interviews and workshops to develop the CLDs. We used the three CLDs to compare and contrast influences on cycling at different points on a "cycling trajectory" and drew out policy insights. The three CLDs consisted of feedback loops dynamically influencing cycling, with significant overlap between the three diagrams. Common reinforcing patterns emerged: growing numbers of people cycling lifts political will to improve the environment; cycling safety in numbers drives further growth; and more cycling can lead to normalisation across the population. By contrast, limits to growth varied as cycling increases. In Auckland and London, real and perceived danger was considered the main limit, with added barriers to normalisation in London. Cycling congestion and "market saturation" were important in the Netherlands. A generalisable, dynamic causal theory for urban cycling enables a more ordered set of policy recommendations for different cities on a cycling trajectory. Participation meant the collective knowledge of cycling stakeholders was represented and triangulated with research evidence. Extending this research to further cities, especially in low

Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří

2015-01-01

In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text

Options of system integrated environment modelling in the predicated dynamic cyberspace

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Janková, Martina; Dvořák, Jiří [Institute of Informatics, Faculty of Business and Management, Brno University of Technology, Brno (Czech Republic)

2015-03-10

In this article there are briefly mentioned some selected options of contemporary conception of cybernetic system models in the corresponding and possible integratable environment with modern system dynamics thinking and all this in the cyberspace of possible projecting of predicted system characteristics. The key to new capabilities of system integration modelling in the considered cyberspace is mainly the ability to improve the environment and the system integration options, all this with the aim of modern control in the hierarchically arranged dynamic cyberspace, e.g. in the currently desired electronic business with information. The aim of this article is to assess generally the trends in the use of modern modelling methods considering the cybernetics applications verified in practice, modern concept of project management and also the potential integration of artificial intelligence in the new projecting and project management of integratable and intelligent models, e.g. with the optimal structures and adaptable behaviour.The article results from the solution of a specific research partial task at the faculty; especially the moments proving that the new economics will be based more and more on information, knowledge system defined cyberspace of modern management, are stressed in the text.

Dynamic modeling and explicit/multi-parametric MPC control of pressure swing adsorption systems

KAUST Repository

Khajuria, Harish

2011-01-01

Pressure swing adsorption (PSA) is a flexible, albeit complex gas separation system. Due to its inherent nonlinear nature and discontinuous operation, the design of a model based PSA controller, especially with varying operating conditions, is a challenging task. This work focuses on the design of an explicit/multi-parametric model predictive controller for a PSA system. Based on a system involving four adsorbent beds separating 70% H2, 30% CH4 mixture into high purity hydrogen, the key controller objective is to fast track H2 purity to a set point value of 99.99%. To perform this task, a rigorous and systematic framework is employed. First, a high fidelity detailed dynamic model is built to represent the system\\'s real operation, and understand its dynamic behavior. The model is then used to derive appropriate linear models by applying suitable system identification techniques. For the reduced models, a model predictive control (MPC) step is formulated, where latest developments in multi-parametric programming and control are applied to derive a novel explicit MPC controller. To test the performance of the designed controller, closed loop simulations are performed where the dynamic model is used as the virtual plant. Comparison studies of the derived explicit MPC controller are also performed with conventional PID controllers. © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Fluctuation-Response Relation and modeling in systems with fast and slow dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

G. Lacorata

2007-10-01

Full Text Available We show how a general formulation of the Fluctuation-Response Relation is able to describe in detail the connection between response properties to external perturbations and spontaneous fluctuations in systems with fast and slow variables. The method is tested by using the 360-variable Lorenz-96 model, where slow and fast variables are coupled to one another with reciprocal feedback, and a simplified low dimensional system. In the Fluctuation-Response context, the influence of the fast dynamics on the slow dynamics relies in a non trivial behavior of a suitable quadratic response function. This has important consequences for the modeling of the slow dynamics in terms of a Langevin equation: beyond a certain intrinsic time interval even the optimal model can give just statistical prediction.

Nuclear Hybrid Energy System Modeling: RELAP5 Dynamic Coupling Capabilities

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Piyush Sabharwall; Nolan Anderson; Haihua Zhao; Shannon Bragg-Sitton; George Mesina

2012-09-01

The nuclear hybrid energy systems (NHES) research team is currently developing a dynamic simulation of an integrated hybrid energy system. A detailed simulation of proposed NHES architectures will allow initial computational demonstration of a tightly coupled NHES to identify key reactor subsystem requirements, identify candidate reactor technologies for a hybrid system, and identify key challenges to operation of the coupled system. This work will provide a baseline for later coupling of design-specific reactor models through industry collaboration. The modeling capability addressed in this report focuses on the reactor subsystem simulation.

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation on a Hybrid Power System for Electric Vehicle Applications

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hong-Wen He

2010-11-01

Full Text Available Hybrid power systems, formed by combining high-energy-density batteries and high-power-density ultracapacitors in appropriate ways, provide high-performance and high-efficiency power systems for electric vehicle applications. This paper first establishes dynamic models for the ultracapacitor, the battery and a passive hybrid power system, and then based on the dynamic models a comparative simulation between a battery only power system and the proposed hybrid power system was done under the UDDS (Urban Dynamometer Driving Schedule. The simulation results showed that the hybrid power system could greatly optimize and improve the efficiency of the batteries and their dynamic current was also decreased due to the participation of the ultracapacitors, which would have a good influence on batteries’ cycle life. Finally, the parameter matching for the passive hybrid power system was studied by simulation and comparisons.

Societal Aging in the Netherlands : Exploratory System Dynamics Modeling and Analysis

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Logtens, T.; Pruyt, E.; Gijsbers, G.W.

2012-01-01

Mismanagement of societal aging is an important threat to health care systems, social security systems, and the economy of many nations. a System Dynamics simulation model related to societal aging in the Netherlands and its implications for the Dutch welfare system is used here as a scenario

Dynamic model reduction: An overview of available techniques with application to power systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Đukić Savo D.

2012-01-01

Full Text Available This paper summarises the model reduction techniques used for the reduction of large-scale linear and nonlinear dynamic models, described by the differential and algebraic equations that are commonly used in control theory. The groups of methods discussed in this paper for reduction of the linear dynamic model are based on singular perturbation analysis, modal analysis, singular value decomposition, moment matching and methods based on a combination of singular value decomposition and moment matching. Among the nonlinear dynamic model reduction methods, proper orthogonal decomposition, the trajectory piecewise linear method, balancing-based methods, reduction by optimising system matrices and projection from a linearised model, are described. Part of the paper is devoted to the techniques commonly used for reduction (equivalencing of large-scale power systems, which are based on coherency, synchrony, singular perturbation analysis, modal analysis and identification. Two (most interesting of the described techniques are applied to the reduction of the commonly used New England 10-generator, 39-bus test power system.

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Wan, Zhong Yi; Vlachas, Pantelis; Koumoutsakos, Petros; Sapsis, Themistoklis

2018-01-01

The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN) architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM) regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more significant in

Data-assisted reduced-order modeling of extreme events in complex dynamical systems.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Zhong Yi Wan

Full Text Available The prediction of extreme events, from avalanches and droughts to tsunamis and epidemics, depends on the formulation and analysis of relevant, complex dynamical systems. Such dynamical systems are characterized by high intrinsic dimensionality with extreme events having the form of rare transitions that are several standard deviations away from the mean. Such systems are not amenable to classical order-reduction methods through projection of the governing equations due to the large intrinsic dimensionality of the underlying attractor as well as the complexity of the transient events. Alternatively, data-driven techniques aim to quantify the dynamics of specific, critical modes by utilizing data-streams and by expanding the dimensionality of the reduced-order model using delayed coordinates. In turn, these methods have major limitations in regions of the phase space with sparse data, which is the case for extreme events. In this work, we develop a novel hybrid framework that complements an imperfect reduced order model, with data-streams that are integrated though a recurrent neural network (RNN architecture. The reduced order model has the form of projected equations into a low-dimensional subspace that still contains important dynamical information about the system and it is expanded by a long short-term memory (LSTM regularization. The LSTM-RNN is trained by analyzing the mismatch between the imperfect model and the data-streams, projected to the reduced-order space. The data-driven model assists the imperfect model in regions where data is available, while for locations where data is sparse the imperfect model still provides a baseline for the prediction of the system state. We assess the developed framework on two challenging prototype systems exhibiting extreme events. We show that the blended approach has improved performance compared with methods that use either data streams or the imperfect model alone. Notably the improvement is more

Modeling the Afferent Dynamics of the Baroreflex Control System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Ottesen, Johnny T.; Mahdi, Adam; Sturdy, Jacob

2013-01-01

of mechanoreceptors located in the BR nerve-endings, and modulation of the action potential frequency. The three sub-systems are modeled individually following well-established biological principles. The first submodel, predicting arterial wall deformation, uses blood pressure as an input and outputs circumferential...... demonstrate that our preferred model can exhibit all known dynamics and that it is advantageous to combine qualitative and quantitative analysis methods....

Thermodynamic model of a thermal storage air conditioning system with dynamic behavior

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Fleming, Evan; Wen, Shaoyi; Shi, Li; Silva, Alexandre K. da

2013-01-01

Highlights: • We developed an automotive thermal storage air conditioning system model. • The thermal storage unit utilizes phase change materials. • We use semi-analytic solution to the coupled phase change and forced convection. • We model the airside heat exchange using the NTU method. • The system model can incorporate dynamic inputs, e.g. variable inlet airflow. - Abstract: A thermodynamic model was developed to predict transient behavior of a thermal storage system, using phase change materials (PCMs), for a novel electric vehicle climate conditioning application. The main objectives of the paper are to consider the system’s dynamic behavior, such as a dynamic air flow rate into the vehicle’s cabin, and to characterize the transient heat transfer process between the thermal storage unit and the vehicle’s cabin, while still maintaining accurate solution to the complex phase change heat transfer. The system studied consists of a heat transfer fluid circulating between either of the on-board hot and cold thermal storage units, which we refer to as thermal batteries, and a liquid–air heat exchanger that provides heat exchange with the incoming air to the vehicle cabin. Each thermal battery is a shell-and-tube configuration where a heat transfer fluid flows through parallel tubes, which are surrounded by PCM within a larger shell. The system model incorporates computationally inexpensive semi-analytic solution to the conjugated laminar forced convection and phase change problem within the battery and accounts for airside heat exchange using the Number of Transfer Units (NTUs) method for the liquid–air heat exchanger. Using this approach, we are able to obtain an accurate solution to the complex heat transfer problem within the battery while also incorporating the impact of the airside heat transfer on the overall system performance. The implemented model was benchmarked against a numerical study for a melting process and against full system

Dynamic modeling and performance evaluation of axial flux PMSG based wind turbine system with MPPT control

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Vahid Behjat

2014-12-01

Full Text Available This research work develops dynamic model of a gearless small scale wind power generation system based on a direct driven single sided outer rotor AFPMSG with coreless armature winding. Dynamic modeling of the AFPMSG based wind turbine requires machine parameters. To this end, a 3D FEM model of the generator is developed and from magnetostatic and transient analysis of the FEM model, machine parameters are calculated and utilized in dynamic modeling of the system. A maximum power point tracking (MPPT-based FOC control approach is used to obtain maximum power from the variable wind speed. The simulation results show the proper performance of the developed dynamic model of the AFPMSG, control approach and power generation system.

Dynamic modeling and sensitivity analysis of solar thermal energy conversion systems

Science.gov (United States)

Hamilton, C. L.

1977-01-01

Since the energy input to solar thermal conversion systems is both time variant and probabilistic, it is unlikely that simple steady-state methods for estimating lifetime performance will provide satisfactory results. The work described here uses dynamic modeling to begin identifying what must be known about input radiation and system dynamic characteristics to estimate performance reliably. Daily operation of two conceptual solar energy systems was simulated under varying operating strategies with time-dependent radiation intensity ranging from smooth input of several magnitudes to input of constant total energy whose intensity oscillated with periods from 1/4 hour to 6 hours. Integrated daily system output and efficiency were functions of both level and dynamic characteristics of insolation. Sensitivity of output to changes in total input was greater than one.

Sensitivity analysis and optimization of system dynamics models : Regression analysis and statistical design of experiments

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kleijnen, J.P.C.

1995-01-01

This tutorial discusses what-if analysis and optimization of System Dynamics models. These problems are solved, using the statistical techniques of regression analysis and design of experiments (DOE). These issues are illustrated by applying the statistical techniques to a System Dynamics model for

A Dynamic Wind Generation Model for Power Systems Studies

OpenAIRE

Estanqueiro, Ana

2007-01-01

In this paper, a wind park dynamic model is presented together with a base methodology for its application to power system studies. This detailed wind generation model addresses the wind turbine components and phenomena more relevant to characterize the power quality of a grid connected wind park, as well as the wind park response to the grid fast perturbations, e.g., low voltage ride through fault. The developed model was applied to the operating conditions of the selected sets of wind turbi...

Modeling systems-level dynamics: Understanding without mechanistic explanation in integrative systems biology.

Science.gov (United States)

MacLeod, Miles; Nersessian, Nancy J

2015-02-01

In this paper we draw upon rich ethnographic data of two systems biology labs to explore the roles of explanation and understanding in large-scale systems modeling. We illustrate practices that depart from the goal of dynamic mechanistic explanation for the sake of more limited modeling goals. These processes use abstract mathematical formulations of bio-molecular interactions and data fitting techniques which we call top-down abstraction to trade away accurate mechanistic accounts of large-scale systems for specific information about aspects of those systems. We characterize these practices as pragmatic responses to the constraints many modelers of large-scale systems face, which in turn generate more limited pragmatic non-mechanistic forms of understanding of systems. These forms aim at knowledge of how to predict system responses in order to manipulate and control some aspects of them. We propose that this analysis of understanding provides a way to interpret what many systems biologists are aiming for in practice when they talk about the objective of a "systems-level understanding." Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Virtual Habitat -a dynamic simulation of closed life support systems -human model status

Science.gov (United States)

Markus Czupalla, M. Sc.; Zhukov, Anton; Hwang, Su-Au; Schnaitmann, Jonas

In order to optimize Life Support Systems on a system level, stability questions must be in-vestigated. To do so the exploration group of the Technical University of Munich (TUM) is developing the "Virtual Habitat" (V-HAB) dynamic LSS simulation software. V-HAB shall provide the possibility to conduct dynamic simulations of entire mission scenarios for any given LSS configuration. The Virtual Habitat simulation tool consists of four main modules: • Closed Environment Module (CEM) -monitoring of compounds in a closed environment • Crew Module (CM) -dynamic human simulation • P/C Systems Module (PCSM) -dynamic P/C subsystems • Plant Module (PM) -dynamic plant simulation The core module of the simulation is the dynamic and environment sensitive human module. Introduced in its basic version in 2008, the human module has been significantly updated since, increasing its capabilities and maturity significantly. In this paper three newly added human model subsystems (thermal regulation, digestion and schedule controller) are introduced touching also on the human stress subsystem which is cur-rently under development. Upon the introduction of these new subsystems, the integration of these into the overall V-HAB human model is discussed, highlighting the impact on the most important I/F. The overall human model capabilities shall further be summarized and presented based on meaningful test cases. In addition to the presentation of the results, the correlation strategy for the Virtual Habitat human model shall be introduced assessing the models current confidence level and giving an outlook on the future correlation strategy. Last but not least, the remaining V-HAB mod-ules shall be introduced shortly showing how the human model is integrated into the overall simulation.

The application of system dynamics modelling to environmental health decision-making and policy - a scoping review.

Science.gov (United States)

Currie, Danielle J; Smith, Carl; Jagals, Paul

2018-03-27

Policy and decision-making processes are routinely challenged by the complex and dynamic nature of environmental health problems. System dynamics modelling has demonstrated considerable value across a number of different fields to help decision-makers understand and predict the dynamic behaviour of complex systems in support the development of effective policy actions. In this scoping review we investigate if, and in what contexts, system dynamics modelling is being used to inform policy or decision-making processes related to environmental health. Four electronic databases and the grey literature were systematically searched to identify studies that intersect the areas environmental health, system dynamics modelling, and decision-making. Studies identified in the initial screening were further screened for their contextual, methodological and application-related relevancy. Studies deemed 'relevant' or 'highly relevant' according to all three criteria were included in this review. Key themes related to the rationale, impact and limitation of using system dynamics in the context of environmental health decision-making and policy were analysed. We identified a limited number of relevant studies (n = 15), two-thirds of which were conducted between 2011 and 2016. The majority of applications occurred in non-health related sectors (n = 9) including transportation, public utilities, water, housing, food, agriculture, and urban and regional planning. Applications were primarily targeted at micro-level (local, community or grassroots) decision-making processes (n = 9), with macro-level (national or international) decision-making to a lesser degree. There was significant heterogeneity in the stated rationales for using system dynamics and the intended impact of the system dynamics model on decision-making processes. A series of user-related, technical and application-related limitations and challenges were identified. None of the reported limitations or challenges

Dynamics model for real time diagnostics of Triga RC-1 system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gadomski, A.M.; Nanni, V.; Meo, G.

1988-01-01

This paper presents dynamics model of TRIGA RC-1 reactor system. The model is dedicated to the real-time early fault detection during a reactor operation in one week exploitation cycle. The algorithms are specially suited for real-time, long time and also accelerated simulations with assumed diagnostic oriented accuracy. The approximations, modular structure, numerical methods and validation are discussed. The elaborated model will be build in the TRIGA Supervisor System and TRIGA Diagnostic Simulator

Study on system dynamics of evolutionary mix-game models

Science.gov (United States)

Gou, Chengling; Guo, Xiaoqian; Chen, Fang

2008-11-01

Mix-game model is ameliorated from an agent-based MG model, which is used to simulate the real financial market. Different from MG, there are two groups of agents in Mix-game: Group 1 plays a majority game and Group 2 plays a minority game. These two groups of agents have different bounded abilities to deal with historical information and to count their own performance. In this paper, we modify Mix-game model by assigning the evolution abilities to agents: if the winning rates of agents are smaller than a threshold, they will copy the best strategies the other agent has; and agents will repeat such evolution at certain time intervals. Through simulations this paper finds: (1) the average winning rates of agents in Group 1 and the mean volatilities increase with the increases of the thresholds of Group 1; (2) the average winning rates of both groups decrease but the mean volatilities of system increase with the increase of the thresholds of Group 2; (3) the thresholds of Group 2 have greater impact on system dynamics than the thresholds of Group 1; (4) the characteristics of system dynamics under different time intervals of strategy change are similar to each other qualitatively, but they are different quantitatively; (5) As the time interval of strategy change increases from 1 to 20, the system behaves more and more stable and the performances of agents in both groups become better also.

Nonlinear dynamic modeling of rotor system supported by angular contact ball bearings

Science.gov (United States)

Wang, Hong; Han, Qinkai; Zhou, Daning

2017-02-01

In current bearing dynamic models, the displacement coordinate relations are usually utilized to approximately obtain the contact deformations between the rolling element and raceways, and then the nonlinear restoring forces of the rolling bearing could be calculated accordingly. Although the calculation efficiency is relatively higher, the accuracy is lower as the contact deformations should be solved through iterative analysis. Thus, an improved nonlinear dynamic model is presented in this paper. Considering the preload condition, surface waviness, Hertz contact and elastohydrodynamic lubrication, load distribution analysis is solved iteratively to more accurately obtain the contact deformations and angles between the rolling balls and raceways. The bearing restoring forces are then obtained through iteratively solving the load distribution equations at every time step. Dynamic tests upon a typical rotor system supported by two angular contact ball bearings are conducted to verify the model. Through comparisons, the differences between the nonlinear dynamic model and current models are also pointed out. The effects of axial preload, rotor eccentricity and inner/outer waviness amplitudes on the dynamic response are discussed in detail.

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, A.C.; Jauch, C.; Soerensen, P.; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.

2003-12-01

The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create a model database in different simulation tools. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. However, the main attention in this report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of two wind turbine concepts: 1. Active stall wind turbine with induction generator 2. Variable speed, variable pitch wind turbine with doubly fed induction generator. These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. For both these two concepts, control strategies are developed and implemented, their performance assessed and discussed by means of simulations. (au)

The role of model dynamics in ensemble Kalman filter performance for chaotic systems

Science.gov (United States)

Ng, G.-H.C.; McLaughlin, D.; Entekhabi, D.; Ahanin, A.

2011-01-01

The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) is susceptible to losing track of observations, or 'diverging', when applied to large chaotic systems such as atmospheric and ocean models. Past studies have demonstrated the adverse impact of sampling error during the filter's update step. We examine how system dynamics affect EnKF performance, and whether the absence of certain dynamic features in the ensemble may lead to divergence. The EnKF is applied to a simple chaotic model, and ensembles are checked against singular vectors of the tangent linear model, corresponding to short-term growth and Lyapunov vectors, corresponding to long-term growth. Results show that the ensemble strongly aligns itself with the subspace spanned by unstable Lyapunov vectors. Furthermore, the filter avoids divergence only if the full linearized long-term unstable subspace is spanned. However, short-term dynamics also become important as non-linearity in the system increases. Non-linear movement prevents errors in the long-term stable subspace from decaying indefinitely. If these errors then undergo linear intermittent growth, a small ensemble may fail to properly represent all important modes, causing filter divergence. A combination of long and short-term growth dynamics are thus critical to EnKF performance. These findings can help in developing practical robust filters based on model dynamics. ?? 2011 The Authors Tellus A ?? 2011 John Wiley & Sons A/S.

Functional System Dynamics

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Ligterink, N.E.

2007-01-01

Functional system dynamics is the analysis, modelling, and simulation of continuous systems usually described by partial differential equations. From the infinite degrees of freedom of such systems only a finite number of relevant variables have to be chosen for a practical model description. The

Dynamics model for real time diagnostics of TRIGA RC-1 system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gadomski, A.M.; Nanni, V.; Meo, G.B.

1986-01-01

This paper presents dynamics model of TRIGA RC-1 reactor system. The model is dedicated to the real-time early fault detection during a reactor operation in one week exploitation cycle. The algorithms are specially suited for real-time, long time and also accelerated simulations with assumed diagnostic oriented accuracy. The approximations, modular structure, numerical methods and validation are discussed. The elaborated model will be build in the TRIGA Supervisory System and TRIGA Diagnostic Simulator. (author)

Modelling household responses to energy efficiency interventions via system dynamics and survey data

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

S Davis

2010-12-01

Full Text Available An application of building a system dynamics model of the way households might respond to interventions aimed at reducing energy consumption (specifically the use of electricity is described in this paper. A literature review of past research is used to build an initial integrated model of household consumption, and this model is used to generate a small number of research hypotheses about how households possessing different characteristics might react to various types of interventions. These hypotheses are tested using data gathered from an efficiency intervention conducted in a town in the South African Western Cape in which households were able to exchange regular light bulbs for more efficient compact fluorescent lamp light bulbs. Our experiences are (a that a system dynamics approach proved useful in advancing a non-traditional point of view for which, for historical and economic reasons, data were not abundantly available; (b that, in areas where traditional models are heavily quantitative, some scepticism to a system dynamics model may be expected; and (c that a statistical comparison of model results by means of empirical data may be an effective tool in reducing such scepticism.

Modeling Networks and Dynamics in Complex Systems: from Nano-Composites to Opinion Formation

Science.gov (United States)

Shi, Feng

Complex networks are ubiquitous in systems of physical, biological, social or technological origin. Components in those systems range from as large as cities in power grids, to as small as molecules in metabolic networks. Since the dawn of network science, significant attention has focused on the implications of dynamics in establishing network structure and the impact of structural properties on dynamics on those networks. The first part of the thesis follows this direction, studying the network formed by conductive nanorods in nano-materials, and focuses on the electrical response of the composite to the structure change of the network. New scaling laws for the shear-induced anisotropic percolation are introduced and a robust exponential tail of the current distribution across the network is identified. These results are relevant especially to "active" composite materials where materials are exposed to mechanical loading and strain deformations. However, in many real-world networks the evolution of the network topology is tied to the states of the vertices and vice versa. Networks that exhibit such a feedback are called adaptive or coevolutionary networks. The second part of the thesis examines two closely related variants of a simple, abstract model for coevolution of a network and the opinions of its members. As a representative model for adaptive networks, it displays the feature of self-organization of the system into a stable configuration due to the interplay between the network topology and the dynamics on the network. This simple model yields interesting dynamics and the slight change in the rewiring strategy results in qualitatively different behaviors of the system. In conclusion, the dissertation aims to develop new network models and tools which enable insights into the structure and dynamics of various systems, and seeks to advance network algorithms which provide approaches to coherently articulated questions in real-world complex systems such as

Dynamic Systems Modeling in Educational System Design & Policy

Science.gov (United States)

Groff, Jennifer Sterling

2013-01-01

Over the last several hundred years, local and national educational systems have evolved from relatively simple systems to incredibly complex, interdependent, policy-laden structures, to which many question their value, effectiveness, and direction they are headed. System Dynamics is a field of analysis used to guide policy and system design in…

Modeling and Optimal Control of a Class of Warfare Hybrid Dynamic Systems Based on Lanchester (n,1 Attrition Model

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Xiangyong Chen

2014-01-01

hybrid dynamic systems is established based on Lanchester equation in a (n,1 battle, where a heterogeneous force of n different troop types faces a homogeneous force. This model can be characterized by the interaction of continuous-time models (governed by Lanchester equation, and discrete event systems (described by variable tactics. Furthermore, an expository discussion is presented on an optimal variable tactics control problem for warfare hybrid dynamic system. The optimal control strategies are designed based on dynamic programming and differential game theory. As an example of the consequences of this optimal control problem, we take the (2, 1 case and solve the optimal strategies in a (2, 1 case. Simulation results show the feasibility of warfare hybrid system model and the effectiveness of the optimal control strategies designed.

Back to the drawing board : creating drawing or text summaries in support of system dynamics modelling

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Kenbeek, W.K.

2012-01-01

System Dynamics modelling is a promising tool to teach secondary school students how complex systems (such as the climate on earth) work, as well as to give these students the opportunity to experience how System Dynamics modelling can be used in science. However, research to date has shown that

A Few Integrable Dynamical Systems, Recurrence Operators, Expanding Integrable Models and Hamiltonian Structures by the r -Matrix Method

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang Yu-Feng; Muhammad, Iqbal; Yue Chao

2017-01-01

We extend two known dynamical systems obtained by Blaszak, et al. via choosing Casimir functions and utilizing Novikov–Lax equation so that a series of novel dynamical systems including generalized Burgers dynamical system, heat equation, and so on, are followed to be generated. Then we expand some differential operators presented in the paper to deduce two types of expanding dynamical models. By taking the generalized Burgers dynamical system as an example, we deform its expanding model to get a half-expanding system, whose recurrence operator is derived from Lax representation, and its Hamiltonian structure is also obtained by adopting a new way. Finally, we expand the generalized Burgers dynamical system to the (2+1)-dimensional case whose Hamiltonian structure is derived by Poisson tensor and gradient of the Casimir function. Besides, a kind of (2+1)-dimensional expanding dynamical model of the (2+1)-dimensional dynamical system is generated as well. (paper)

Nitrogen dynamics in flooded soil systems: An overview on concepts and performance of models

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Khairudin, Nurul; Gaydon, Donald S.; Jing, Qi; Zakaria, Mohamad P.; Struik, Paul C.; Keesman, Karel J.

2018-01-01

Extensive modelling studies on nitrogen (N) dynamics in flooded soil systems have been published. Consequently, many N dynamics models are available for users to select from. With the current research trend, inclined towards multi-disciplinary research, and with substantial progress in understanding

Coupling fast fluid dynamics and multizone airflow models in Modelica Buildings library to simulate the dynamics of HVAC systems

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Tian, Wei [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Sevilla, Thomas Alonso [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Zuo, Wangda [Univ. of Miami, FL (United States). Dept. of Civil, Architectural and Environmental Engineering; Sohn, Michael D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Lab. (LBNL), Berkeley, CA (United States). Energy Analysis and Environmental Impacts Div.

2017-06-08

Historically, multizone models are widely used in building airflow and energy performance simulations due to their fast computing speed. However, multizone models assume that the air in a room is well mixed, consequently limiting their application. In specific rooms where this assumption fails, the use of computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models may be an alternative option. Previous research has mainly focused on coupling CFD models and multizone models to study airflow in large spaces. While significant, most of these analyses did not consider the coupled simulation of the building airflow with the building's Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) systems. This paper tries to fill the gap by integrating the models for HVAC systems with coupled multizone and CFD simulations for airflows, using the Modelica simul ation platform. To improve the computational efficiency, we incorporated a simplified CFD model named fast fluid dynamics (FFD). We first introduce the data synchronization strategy and implementation in Modelica. Then, we verify the implementation using two case studies involving an isothermal and a non-isothermal flow by comparing model simulations to experiment data. Afterward, we study another three cases that are deemed more realistic. This is done by attaching a variable air volume (VAV) terminal box and a VAV system to previous flows to assess the capability of the models in studying the dynamic control of HVAC systems. Finally, we discuss further research needs on the coupled simulation using the models.

On the dynamics of chain systems. [applications in manipulator and human body models

Science.gov (United States)

Huston, R. L.; Passerello, C. E.

1974-01-01

A computer-oriented method for obtaining dynamical equations of motion for chain systems is presented. A chain system is defined as an arbitrarily assembled set of rigid bodies such that adjoining bodies have at least one common point and such that closed loops are not formed. The equations of motion are developed through the use of Lagrange's form of d'Alembert's principle. The method and procedure is illustrated with an elementary study of a tripod space manipulator. The method is designed for application with systems such as human body models, chains and cables, and dynamic finite-segment models.

Causal Loop-based Modeling on System Dynamics for Risk Communication

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Chang Ju [Korea Institute of Nuclear Safety, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of); Kang, Kyung Min [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2009-10-15

It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models.

Causal Loop-based Modeling on System Dynamics for Risk Communication

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lee, Chang Ju; Kang, Kyung Min

2009-01-01

It is true that a national policy should be based on public confidence, analyzing their recognition and attitude on life safety, since they have very special risk perception characteristics. For achieving effective public consensus regarding a national policy such as nuclear power, we have to utilize a risk communication (hereafter, calls RiCom) process. However, domestic research models on RiCom process do not provide a practical guideline, because most of them are still superficial and stick on an administrative aspect. Also, most of current models have no experience in terms of verification and validation for effective applications to diverse stake holders. This study focuses on public's dynamic mechanism through the modeling on system dynamics, basically utilizing casual loop diagram (CLD) and stock flow diagram (SFD), which regards as a critical technique for decision making in many industrial RiCom models

System Dynamics Modelling in CRM: Window Fashions Gallery

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F.T. Yuen

2010-09-01

Full Text Available The core research issue on which this study focuses is customer relationship management (CRM in a designated window fashions firm. A system dynamics-based CRM model is developed to help evaluate the effectiveness of CRM in the firm and examine factors affecting customer satisfaction. Different relationships and linkages between the firm, its employees, and its customers are identified to establish feedback loops that analyze the system over time. The analysis of the CRM model shows that employee satisfaction is the key leverage point affecting customer satisfaction, number of customers, and sales volume of the firm. Product attractiveness and service quality also play an important role in influencing the level of customer satisfaction. On the other hand, advertising and employee training have only minor effects on customer satisfaction.

Dynamic model including piping acoustics of a centrifugal compression system

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Helvoirt, van J.; Jager, de A.G.

2007-01-01

This paper deals with low frequency pulsation phenomena in full-scale centrifugal compression systems associated with compressor surge. The Greitzer lumped parameter model is applied to describe the dynamic behavior of an industrial compressor test rig and experimental evidence is provided for the

Tunneling dynamics in open ultracold bosonic systems. Numerically exact dynamics - Analytical models - Control schemes

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Lode, Axel U.J.

2013-01-01

This thesis explores the quantum many-body tunneling dynamics of open ultracold bosonic systems with the recently developed multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree for bosons (MCTDHB) method. The capabilities of MCTDHB to provide solutions to the full time-dependent many-body problem are assessed in a benchmark using the analytically solvable harmonic interaction Hamiltonian and a generalization of it with time-dependent both one- and two-body potentials. In a comparison with numerically exact MCTDHB results, it is shown that e.g. lattice methods fail qualitatively to describe the tunneling dynamics. A model assembling the many-body physics of the process from basic simultaneously happening single-particle processes is derived and verified with a numerically exact MCTDHB description. The generality of the model is demonstrated even for strong interactions and large particle numbers. The ejection of the bosons from the source occurs with characteristic velocities. These velocities are defined by the chemical potentials of systems with different particle numbers which are converted to kinetic energy. The tunneling process is accompanied by fragmentation: the ejected bosons lose their coherence with the source and among each other. It is shown that the various aspects of the tunneling dynamics' can be controlled well with the interaction and the potential threshold.

Tunneling dynamics in open ultracold bosonic systems. Numerically exact dynamics - Analytical models - Control schemes

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lode, Axel U.J.

2013-06-03

This thesis explores the quantum many-body tunneling dynamics of open ultracold bosonic systems with the recently developed multiconfigurational time-dependent Hartree for bosons (MCTDHB) method. The capabilities of MCTDHB to provide solutions to the full time-dependent many-body problem are assessed in a benchmark using the analytically solvable harmonic interaction Hamiltonian and a generalization of it with time-dependent both one- and two-body potentials. In a comparison with numerically exact MCTDHB results, it is shown that e.g. lattice methods fail qualitatively to describe the tunneling dynamics. A model assembling the many-body physics of the process from basic simultaneously happening single-particle processes is derived and verified with a numerically exact MCTDHB description. The generality of the model is demonstrated even for strong interactions and large particle numbers. The ejection of the bosons from the source occurs with characteristic velocities. These velocities are defined by the chemical potentials of systems with different particle numbers which are converted to kinetic energy. The tunneling process is accompanied by fragmentation: the ejected bosons lose their coherence with the source and among each other. It is shown that the various aspects of the tunneling dynamics' can be controlled well with the interaction and the potential threshold.

Dynamic heat transfer modeling and parametric study of thermoelectric radiant cooling and heating panel system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Luo, Yongqiang; Zhang, Ling; Liu, Zhongbing; Wang, Yingzi; Wu, Jing; Wang, Xiliang

2016-01-01

Highlights: • Dynamic model of thermoelectric radiant panel system is established. • The internal parameters of thermoelectric module are dynamically calculated in simulation. • Both artificial neural networks model and system model are verified through experiment data. • Optimized system structure is obtained through parametric study. - Abstract: Radiant panel system can optimize indoor thermal comfort with lower energy consumption. The thermoelectric radiant panel (TERP) system is a new and effective prototype of radiant system using thermoelectric module (TEM) instead of conventional water pipes, as heat source. The TERP can realize more stable and easier system control as well as lower initial and operative cost. In this study, an improved system dynamic model was established by combining analytical system model and artificial neural networks (ANN) as well as the dynamic calculation functions of internal parameters of TEM. The double integral was used for the calculation of surface average temperature of TERP. The ANN model and system model were in good agreement with experiment data in both cooling and heating mode. In order to optimize the system design structure, parametric study was conducted in terms of the thickness of aluminum panel and insulation, as well as the arrangement of TEMs on the surface of radiant panel. It was found through simulation results that the optimum thickness of aluminum panel and insulation are respectively around 1–2 mm and 40–50 mm. In addition, TEMs should be uniformly installed on the surface of radiant panel and each TEM should stand at the central position of a square-shaped typical region with length around 0.387–0.548 m.

Forecasting the shortage of neurosurgeons in Iran using a system dynamics model approach.

Science.gov (United States)

Rafiei, Sima; Daneshvaran, Arman; Abdollahzade, Sina

2018-01-01

Shortage of physicians particularly in specialty levels is considered as an important issue in Iran health system. Thus, in an uncertain environment, long-term planning is required for health professionals as a basic priority on a national scale. This study aimed to estimate the number of required neurosurgeons using system dynamic modeling. System dynamic modeling was applied to predict the gap between stock and number of required neurosurgeons in Iran up to 2020. A supply and demand simulation model was constructed for neurosurgeons using system dynamic approach. The demand model included epidemiological, demographic, and utilization variables along with supply model-incorporated current stock of neurosurgeons and flow variables such as attrition, migration, and retirement rate. Data were obtained from various governmental databases and were analyzed by Vensim PLE Version 3.0 to address the flow of health professionals, clinical infrastructure, population demographics, and disease prevalence during the time. It was forecasted that shortage in number of neurosurgeons would disappear at 2020. The most dominant determinants on predicted number of neurosurgeons were the prevalence of neurosurgical diseases, the rate for service utilization, and medical capacity of the region. Shortage of neurosurgeons in some areas of the country relates to maldistribution of the specialists. Accordingly, there is a need to reconsider the allocation system for health professionals within the country instead of increasing the overall number of acceptance quota in training positions.

Modeling the system dynamics for nutrient removal in an innovative septic tank media filter.

Science.gov (United States)

Xuan, Zhemin; Chang, Ni-Bin; Wanielista, Martin

2012-05-01

A next generation septic tank media filter to replace or enhance the current on-site wastewater treatment drainfields was proposed in this study. Unit operation with known treatment efficiencies, flow pattern identification, and system dynamics modeling was cohesively concatenated in order to prove the concept of a newly developed media filter. A multicompartmental model addressing system dynamics and feedbacks based on our assumed microbiological processes accounting for aerobic, anoxic, and anaerobic conditions in the media filter was constructed and calibrated with the aid of in situ measurements and the understanding of the flow patterns. Such a calibrated system dynamics model was then applied for a sensitivity analysis under changing inflow conditions based on the rates of nitrification and denitrification characterized through the field-scale testing. This advancement may contribute to design such a drainfield media filter in household septic tank systems in the future.

Dynamic modeling and simulation of EBR-II steam generator system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Berkan, R.C.; Upadhyaya, B.R.

1989-01-01

This paper presents a low order dynamic model of the Experimental breeder Reactor-II (EBR-II) steam generator system. The model development includes the application of energy, mass and momentum balance equations in state-space form. The model also includes a three-element controller for the drum water level control problem. The simulation results for low-level perturbations exhibit the inherently stable characteristics of the steam generator. The predictions of test transients also verify the consistency of this low order model

Dynamical systems, attractors, and neural circuits.

Science.gov (United States)

Miller, Paul

2016-01-01

Biology is the study of dynamical systems. Yet most of us working in biology have limited pedagogical training in the theory of dynamical systems, an unfortunate historical fact that can be remedied for future generations of life scientists. In my particular field of systems neuroscience, neural circuits are rife with nonlinearities at all levels of description, rendering simple methodologies and our own intuition unreliable. Therefore, our ideas are likely to be wrong unless informed by good models. These models should be based on the mathematical theories of dynamical systems since functioning neurons are dynamic-they change their membrane potential and firing rates with time. Thus, selecting the appropriate type of dynamical system upon which to base a model is an important first step in the modeling process. This step all too easily goes awry, in part because there are many frameworks to choose from, in part because the sparsely sampled data can be consistent with a variety of dynamical processes, and in part because each modeler has a preferred modeling approach that is difficult to move away from. This brief review summarizes some of the main dynamical paradigms that can arise in neural circuits, with comments on what they can achieve computationally and what signatures might reveal their presence within empirical data. I provide examples of different dynamical systems using simple circuits of two or three cells, emphasizing that any one connectivity pattern is compatible with multiple, diverse functions.

Mathematical modeling of alignment dynamics in active motor-filament systems

Science.gov (United States)

Swaminathan, Sumanth

The formation of the cytoskeleton, via motor-mediated microtubule self-organization, is an important subject of study in the biological sciences as well as in nonequilibrium, soft matter physics. Accurate modeling of the dynamics is a formidable task as it involves intrinsic nonlinearities, structural anisotropies, nonequilibrium processes, and a broad window of time scales, length scales, and densities. In this thesis, we study the ordering dynamics and pattern formations arising from motor-mediated microtubule self-organization in dilute and semi-dilute filament solutions. In the dilute case, we use a probabilistic model in which microtubules interact through motor induced, inelastic binary collisions. This model shows that initially disordered filament solutions exhibit an ordering transition resulting in the emergence of well aligned rod bundles. We study the existence and dynamic interaction of microtubule bundles analytically and numerically. Our results show a long term attraction and coalescing of bundles indicating a clear coarsening in the system; microtubule bundles concentrate into fewer orientations on a slow logarithmic time scale. In the semi-dilute case, multiple motors can bind a filament to several others and, for a critical motor density, induce a transition to an ordered state with a nonzero mean orientation. We develop a spatially homogeneous, mean-field theory that explicitly accounts for motor forcing and thermal fluctuations which enter into the model as multiplicative and additive noises respectively. Our model further incorporates a force-dependent detachment rate of motors, which in turn affects the mean and the fluctuations of the net force acting on a filament. We demonstrate that the transition to the oriented state changes from second order to first order when the force-dependent detachment becomes important. In our final analysis, we add complex spatial inhomogeneities to our mean field theory. The revised model consists of a system

Dynamic assessment of urban economy-environment-energy system using system dynamics model: A case study in Beijing.

Science.gov (United States)

Wu, Desheng; Ning, Shuang

2018-07-01

Economic development, accompanying with environmental damage and energy depletion, becomes essential nowadays. There is a complicated and comprehensive interaction between economics, environment and energy. Understanding the operating mechanism of Energy-Environment-Economy model (3E) and its key factors is the inherent part in dealing with the issue. In this paper, we combine System Dynamics model and Geographic Information System to analyze the energy-environment-economy (3E) system both temporally and spatially, which explicitly explore the interaction of economics, energy, and environment and effects of the key influencing factors. Beijing is selected as a case study to verify our SD-GIS model. Alternative scenarios, e.g., current, technology, energy and environment scenarios are explored and compared. Simulation results shows that, current scenario is not sustainable; technology scenario is applicable to economic growth; environment scenario maintains a balanced path of development for long term stability. Policy-making insights are given based on our results and analysis. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Nonlinear Dynamic Modeling of a Supersonic Commercial Transport Turbo-Machinery Propulsion System for Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elasticity Research

Science.gov (United States)

Connolly, Joe; Carlson, Jan-Renee; Kopasakis, George; Woolwine, Kyle

2015-01-01

This paper covers the development of an integrated nonlinear dynamic model for a variable cycle turbofan engine, supersonic inlet, and convergent-divergent nozzle that can be integrated with an aeroelastic vehicle model to create an overall Aero-Propulso-Servo-Elastic (APSE) modeling tool. The primary focus of this study is to provide a means to capture relevant thrust dynamics of a full supersonic propulsion system by using relatively simple quasi-one dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) methods that will allow for accurate control algorithm development and capture the key aspects of the thrust to feed into an APSE model. Previously, propulsion system component models have been developed and are used for this study of the fully integrated propulsion system. An overview of the methodology is presented for the modeling of each propulsion component, with a focus on its associated coupling for the overall model. To conduct APSE studies the described dynamic propulsion system model is integrated into a high fidelity CFD model of the full vehicle capable of conducting aero-elastic studies. Dynamic thrust analysis for the quasi-one dimensional dynamic propulsion system model is presented along with an initial three dimensional flow field model of the engine integrated into a supersonic commercial transport.

Functional System Dynamics

OpenAIRE

Ligterink, N.E.

2007-01-01

Functional system dynamics is the analysis, modelling, and simulation of continuous systems usually described by partial differential equations. From the infinite degrees of freedom of such systems only a finite number of relevant variables have to be chosen for a practical model description. The proper input and output of the system are an important part of the relevant variables.

Using Small Models for Big Issues : Exploratory System Dynamics Modelling and Analysis for Insightful Crisis Management

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Pruyt, E.

2010-01-01

The main goal of this paper is to explain and illustrate different exploratory uses of small System Dynamics models for analysis and decision support in case of dynamically complex issues that are deeply uncertain. The applied focuss of the paper is the field of inter/national safety and security.

A diagnostic expert system for a boiling water reactor using a dynamic model

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sonoda, Y.; Kanemoto, S.; Imaruoka, H.

1990-01-01

A diagnostic expert system for abnormal disturbances in a BWR (Boiling Water Reactor) plant has been developed. The peculiar feature of this system is a diagnostic method which combines artificial intelligence technique with numerical analysis technique. The system has three diagnostic functions, 1) identification of anomaly position (device or sensor), 2) identification of anomaly mode and 3) identification of anomaly cause. Function 1) is implemented as follows. First, a hypothesis about anomaly propagation paths is built up by qualitative reasoning, using knowledge of causal relations among observed signals. Next, the abnormal device or sensor is found by applying model reference method and fuzzy set theory to test the hypothesis, using knowledge of plant structure and function, heuristic strategy of diagnosis and module type dynamic simulator. This simulator is composed of basic transfer function modules. The simulation model for the testing region is built up automatically, according to the requirement from the diagnostic task. Function 2) means identification of dynamic characteristics for an anomaly. It is realized by tuning model parameters so as to reproduce the abnormal signal behavior using the non-linear programing method. Function 3) derives probable anomaly causes from heuristic rules between anomaly mode and cause. A basic plant dynamic model was built up and adjusted to dynamic characteristics for one BWR plant (1100MWe). In order to verify the diagnostic functions of this system, data for several abnormal events was compiled by modifying this model. The diagnostic functions were proved useful, through the simulated abnormal data

Modeling the dynamic response of pressures in a distributed helium refrigeration system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Brubaker, J.C.

1997-12-01

A mathematical model is created of the dynamic response of pressures caused by flow inputs to an existing distributed helium refrigeration system. The dynamic system studied consists of the suction and discharge pressure headers and compressor portions of the refrigeration system used to cool the superconducting magnets of the Tevatron accelerator at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The modeling method involves identifying the system from data recorded during a series of controlled tests, with effort made to detect locational differences in pressure response around the four mile accelerator circumference. A review of the fluid mechanics associated with the system indicates linear time invariant models are suitable for the identification, particularly since the governing equations of one dimensional fluid flow are approximated by linear differential equations. An outline of the experimental design and the data acquisition system are given, followed by a detailed description of the modeling, which utilized the Matlab programming language and associated System Identification Toolbox. Two representations of the system are presented. One, a black box model, provides a multi-input, multi-output description assembled from the results of single input step function testing. This description indicates definite variation in pressure response with distance from the flow input location, and also suggests subtle differences in response with the input location itself. A second system representation is proposed which details the relation between continuous flow changes and pressure response, and provides explanation of a previously unappreciated pressure feedback internal to the system

Modeling the dynamic response of pressures in a distributed helium refrigeration system

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Brubaker, John Carl [Illinois Inst. of Technology, Chicago, IL (United States)

1997-12-01

A mathematical model is created of the dynamic response of pressures caused by flow inputs to an existing distributed helium refrigeration system. The dynamic system studied consists of the suction and discharge pressure headers and compressor portions of the refrigeration system used to cool the superconducting magnets of the Tevatron accelerator at the Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory. The modeling method involves identifying the system from data recorded during a series of controlled tests, with effort made to detect locational differences in pressure response around the four mile accelerator circumference. A review of the fluid mechanics associated with the system indicates linear time invariant models are suitable for the identification, particularly since the governing equations of one dimensional fluid flow are approximated by linear differential equations. An outline of the experimental design and the data acquisition system are given, followed by a detailed description of the modeling, which utilized the Matlab programming language and associated System Identification Toolbox. Two representations of the system are presented. One, a black box model, provides a multi-input, multi-output description assembled from the results of single input step function testing. This description indicates definite variation in pressure response with distance from the flow input location, and also suggests subtle differences in response with the input location itself. A second system representation is proposed which details the relation between continuous flow changes and pressure response, and provides explanation of a previously unappreciated pressure feedback internal to the system.

Toward a Comprehensive Model of Antisocial Development: A Dynamic Systems Approach

Science.gov (United States)

Granic, Isabela; Patterson, Gerald R.

2006-01-01

The purpose of this article is to develop a preliminary comprehensive model of antisocial development based on dynamic systems principles. The model is built on the foundations of behavioral research on coercion theory. First, the authors focus on the principles of multistability, feedback, and nonlinear causality to reconceptualize real-time…

MATHEMATICAL MODEL FOR ESTIMATION OF MECHANICAL SYSTEM CONDITION IN DYNAMICS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

D. N. Mironov

2011-01-01

Full Text Available The paper considers an estimation of a complicated mechanical system condition in dynamics with due account of material degradation and accumulation of micro-damages. An element of continuous medium has been simulated and described with the help of a discrete element. The paper contains description of a model for determination of mechanical system longevity in accordance with number of cycles and operational period.

Nonlinear modeling and dynamic analysis of hydro-turbine governing system in the process of load rejection transient

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Zhang, Hao; Chen, Diyi; Xu, Beibei; Wang, Feifei

2015-01-01

Graphical abstract: Nonlinear dynamic transfer coefficients are introduced to the hydro-turbine governing system. In the process of load reject ion transient, the nonlinear dynamical behaviors of the system are studied in detail. - Highlights: • A novel mathematical model of a hydro-turbine governing system is established. • The process of load rejection transient is considered. • Nonlinear dynamic transfer coefficients are introduced to the system. • The bifurcation diagram with the variable t has better engineering significance. • The nonlinear dynamical behaviors of the system are studied in detail. - Abstract: This article pays attention to the mathematical modeling of a hydro-turbine governing system in the process of load rejection transient. As a pioneer work, the nonlinear dynamic transfer coefficients are introduced in a penstock system. Considering a generator system, a turbine system and a governor system, we present a novel nonlinear dynamical model of a hydro-turbine governing system. Fortunately, for the unchanged of PID parameters, we acquire the stable regions of the governing system in the process of load rejection transient by numerical simulations. Moreover, the nonlinear dynamic behaviors of the governing system are illustrated by bifurcation diagrams, Poincare maps, time waveforms and phase orbits. More importantly, these methods and analytic results will present theoretical groundwork for allowing a hydropower station in the process of load rejection transient

Information-theoretic model selection for optimal prediction of stochastic dynamical systems from data

Science.gov (United States)

Darmon, David

2018-03-01

In the absence of mechanistic or phenomenological models of real-world systems, data-driven models become necessary. The discovery of various embedding theorems in the 1980s and 1990s motivated a powerful set of tools for analyzing deterministic dynamical systems via delay-coordinate embeddings of observations of their component states. However, in many branches of science, the condition of operational determinism is not satisfied, and stochastic models must be brought to bear. For such stochastic models, the tool set developed for delay-coordinate embedding is no longer appropriate, and a new toolkit must be developed. We present an information-theoretic criterion, the negative log-predictive likelihood, for selecting the embedding dimension for a predictively optimal data-driven model of a stochastic dynamical system. We develop a nonparametric estimator for the negative log-predictive likelihood and compare its performance to a recently proposed criterion based on active information storage. Finally, we show how the output of the model selection procedure can be used to compare candidate predictors for a stochastic system to an information-theoretic lower bound.

Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.

2002-01-01

Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers can schedule other events; create or remove Entities from the

From dynamics to structure and function of model biomolecular systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Fontaine-Vive-Curtaz, F.

2007-01-01

The purpose of this thesis was to extend recent works on structure and dynamics of hydrogen bonded crystals to model biomolecular systems and biological processes. The tools that we have used are neutron scattering (NS) and density functional theory (DFT) and force field (FF) based simulation

Dynamical system analysis of interacting models

Science.gov (United States)

Carneiro, S.; Borges, H. A.

2018-01-01

We perform a dynamical system analysis of a cosmological model with linear dependence between the vacuum density and the Hubble parameter, with constant-rate creation of dark matter. We show that the de Sitter spacetime is an asymptotically stable critical point, future limit of any expanding solution. Our analysis also shows that the Minkowski spacetime is an unstable critical point, which eventually collapses to a singularity. In this way, such a prescription for the vacuum decay not only predicts the correct future de Sitter limit, but also forbids the existence of a stable Minkowski universe. We also study the effect of matter creation on the growth of structures and their peculiar velocities, showing that it is inside the current errors of redshift space distortions observations.

Development of a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of municipal watermain networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Rehan, R; Knight, M A; Unger, A J A; Haas, C T

2013-12-15

This paper develops causal loop diagrams and a system dynamics model for financially sustainable management of urban water distribution networks. The developed causal loop diagrams are a novel contribution in that it illustrates the unique characteristics and feedback loops for financially self-sustaining water distribution networks. The system dynamics model is a mathematical realization of the developed interactions among system variables over time and is comprised of three sectors namely watermains network, consumer, and finance. This is the first known development of a water distribution network system dynamics model. The watermains network sector accounts for the unique characteristics of watermain pipes such as service life, deterioration progression, pipe breaks, and water leakage. The finance sector allows for cash reserving by the utility in addition to the pay-as-you-go and borrowing strategies. The consumer sector includes controls to model water fee growth as a function of service performance and a household's financial burden due to water fees. A series of policy levers are provided that allow the impact of various financing strategies to be evaluated in terms of financial sustainability and household affordability. The model also allows for examination of the impact of different management strategies on the water fee in terms of consistency and stability over time. The paper concludes with a discussion on how the developed system dynamics water model can be used by water utilities to achieve a variety of utility short and long-term objectives and to establish realistic and defensible water utility policies. It also discusses how the model can be used by regulatory bodies, government agencies, the financial industry, and researchers. Crown Copyright © 2013. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Thermodynamic model of a thermal storage air conditioning system with dynamic behavior

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Fleming, E; Wen, SY; Shi, L; da Silva, AK

2013-12-01

A thermodynamic model was developed to predict transient behavior of a thermal storage system, using phase change materials (PCMs), for a novel electric vehicle climate conditioning application. The main objectives of the paper are to consider the system's dynamic behavior, such as a dynamic air flow rate into the vehicle's cabin, and to characterize the transient heat transfer process between the thermal storage unit and the vehicle's cabin, while still maintaining accurate solution to the complex phase change heat transfer. The system studied consists of a heat transfer fluid circulating between either of the on-board hot and cold thermal storage units, which we refer to as thermal batteries, and a liquid-air heat exchanger that provides heat exchange with the incoming air to the vehicle cabin. Each thermal battery is a shell-and-tube configuration where a heat transfer fluid flows through parallel tubes, which are surrounded by PCM within a larger shell. The system model incorporates computationally inexpensive semianalytic solution to the conjugated laminar forced convection and phase change problem within the battery and accounts for airside heat exchange using the Number of Transfer Units (NTUs) method for the liquid-air heat exchanger. Using this approach, we are able to obtain an accurate solution to the complex heat transfer problem within the battery while also incorporating the impact of the airside heat transfer on the overall system performance. The implemented model was benchmarked against a numerical study for a melting process and against full system experimental data for solidification using paraffin wax as the PCM. Through modeling, we demonstrate the importance of capturing the airside heat exchange impact on system performance, and we investigate system response to dynamic operating conditions, e.g., air recirculation. (C) 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Establishment and verification of three-dimensional dynamic model for heavy-haul train-track coupled system

Science.gov (United States)

Liu, Pengfei; Zhai, Wanming; Wang, Kaiyun

2016-11-01

For the long heavy-haul train, the basic principles of the inter-vehicle interaction and train-track dynamic interaction are analysed firstly. Based on the theories of train longitudinal dynamics and vehicle-track coupled dynamics, a three-dimensional (3-D) dynamic model of the heavy-haul train-track coupled system is established through a modularised method. Specifically, this model includes the subsystems such as the train control, the vehicle, the wheel-rail relation and the line geometries. And for the calculation of the wheel-rail interaction force under the driving or braking conditions, the large creep phenomenon that may occur within the wheel-rail contact patch is considered. For the coupler and draft gear system, the coupler forces in three directions and the coupler lateral tilt angles in curves are calculated. Then, according to the characteristics of the long heavy-haul train, an efficient solving method is developed to improve the computational efficiency for such a large system. Some basic principles which should be followed in order to meet the requirement of calculation accuracy are determined. Finally, the 3-D train-track coupled model is verified by comparing the calculated results with the running test results. It is indicated that the proposed dynamic model could simulate the dynamic performance of the heavy-haul train well.

Introduction to the application of dynamical systems theory in the study of the dynamics of cosmological models of dark energy

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

García-Salcedo, Ricardo; Sanchez-Guzmán, Daniel; Gonzalez, Tame; Horta-Rangel, Francisco A; Quiros, Israel

2015-01-01

The theory of dynamical systems is a very complex subject that has produced several surprises in the recent past in connection with the theory of chaos and fractals. The application of the tools of dynamical systems in cosmological settings is less known, in spite of the number of published scientific papers on this subject. In this paper, a mostly pedagogical introduction to the cosmological application of the basic tools of dynamical systems theory is presented. It is shown that, in spite of their amazing simplicity, these tools allow us to extract essential information on the asymptotic dynamics of a wide variety of cosmological models. The power of these tools is illustrated within the context of the so-called Λ-cold dark matter (ΛCDM) and scalar field models of dark energy. This paper is suitable for teachers, undergraduate students, and postgraduate students in the disciplines of physics and mathematics. (paper)

Multibody system dynamics, robotics and control

CERN Document Server

Gerstmayr, Johannes

2013-01-01

The volume contains 19 contributions by international experts in the field of multibody system dynamics, robotics and control. The book aims to bridge the gap between the modeling of mechanical systems by means of multibody dynamics formulations and robotics. In the classical approach, a multibody dynamics model contains a very high level of detail, however, the application of such models to robotics or control is usually limited. The papers aim to connect the different scientific communities in multibody dynamics, robotics and control. Main topics are flexible multibody systems, humanoid robots, elastic robots, nonlinear control, optimal path planning, and identification.

Logic-based hierarchies for modeling behavior of complex dynamic systems with applications

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Hu, Y.S.; Modarres, M.

2000-01-01

Most complex systems are best represented in the form of a hierarchy. The Goal Tree Success Tree and Master Logic Diagram (GTST-MLD) are proven powerful hierarchic methods to represent complex snap-shot of plant knowledge. To represent dynamic behaviors of complex systems, fuzzy logic is applied to replace binary logic to extend the power of GTST-MLD. Such a fuzzy-logic-based hierarchy is called Dynamic Master Logic Diagram (DMLD). This chapter discusses comparison of the use of GTST-DMLD when applied as a modeling tool for systems whose relationships are modeled by either physical, binary logical or fuzzy logical relationships. This is shown by applying GTST-DMLD to the Direct Containment Heating (DCH) phenomenon at pressurized water reactors which is an important safety issue being addressed by the nuclear industry. (orig.)

a System Dynamics Model to Study the Importance of Infrastructure Facilities on Quality of Primary Education System in Developing Countries

Science.gov (United States)

Pedamallu, Chandra Sekhar; Ozdamar, Linet; Weber, Gerhard-Wilhelm; Kropat, Erik

2010-06-01

The system dynamics approach is a holistic way of solving problems in real-time scenarios. This is a powerful methodology and computer simulation modeling technique for framing, analyzing, and discussing complex issues and problems. System dynamics modeling and simulation is often the background of a systemic thinking approach and has become a management and organizational development paradigm. This paper proposes a system dynamics approach for study the importance of infrastructure facilities on quality of primary education system in developing nations. The model is proposed to be built using the Cross Impact Analysis (CIA) method of relating entities and attributes relevant to the primary education system in any given community. We offer a survey to build the cross-impact correlation matrix and, hence, to better understand the primary education system and importance of infrastructural facilities on quality of primary education. The resulting model enables us to predict the effects of infrastructural facilities on the access of primary education by the community. This may support policy makers to take more effective actions in campaigns.

Scenario development, qualitative causal analysis and system dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Michael H. Ruge

2009-02-01

Full Text Available The aim of this article is to demonstrate that technology assessments can be supported by methods such as scenario modeling and qualitative causal analysis. At Siemens, these techniques are used to develop preliminary purely qualitative models. These or parts of these comprehensive models may be extended to system dynamics models. While it is currently not possible to automatically generate a system dynamics models (or vice versa, obtain a qualitative simulation model from a system dynamics model, the two thechniques scenario development and qualitative causal analysis provide valuable indications on how to proceed towards a system dynamics model. For the qualitative analysis phase, the Siemens – proprietary prototype Computer – Aided Technology Assessment Software (CATS supportes complete cycle and submodel analysis. Keywords: Health care, telecommucations, qualitative model, sensitivity analysis, system dynamics.

Multiscale Molecular Dynamics Model for Heterogeneous Charged Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Stanton, L. G.; Glosli, J. N.; Murillo, M. S.

2018-04-01

Modeling matter across large length scales and timescales using molecular dynamics simulations poses significant challenges. These challenges are typically addressed through the use of precomputed pair potentials that depend on thermodynamic properties like temperature and density; however, many scenarios of interest involve spatiotemporal variations in these properties, and such variations can violate assumptions made in constructing these potentials, thus precluding their use. In particular, when a system is strongly heterogeneous, most of the usual simplifying assumptions (e.g., spherical potentials) do not apply. Here, we present a multiscale approach to orbital-free density functional theory molecular dynamics (OFDFT-MD) simulations that bridges atomic, interionic, and continuum length scales to allow for variations in hydrodynamic quantities in a consistent way. Our multiscale approach enables simulations on the order of micron length scales and 10's of picosecond timescales, which exceeds current OFDFT-MD simulations by many orders of magnitude. This new capability is then used to study the heterogeneous, nonequilibrium dynamics of a heated interface characteristic of an inertial-confinement-fusion capsule containing a plastic ablator near a fuel layer composed of deuterium-tritium ice. At these scales, fundamental assumptions of continuum models are explored; features such as the separation of the momentum fields among the species and strong hydrogen jetting from the plastic into the fuel region are observed, which had previously not been seen in hydrodynamic simulations.

Application of numerical optimization techniques to control system design for nonlinear dynamic models of aircraft

Science.gov (United States)

Lan, C. Edward; Ge, Fuying

1989-01-01

Control system design for general nonlinear flight dynamic models is considered through numerical simulation. The design is accomplished through a numerical optimizer coupled with analysis of flight dynamic equations. The general flight dynamic equations are numerically integrated and dynamic characteristics are then identified from the dynamic response. The design variables are determined iteratively by the optimizer to optimize a prescribed objective function which is related to desired dynamic characteristics. Generality of the method allows nonlinear effects to aerodynamics and dynamic coupling to be considered in the design process. To demonstrate the method, nonlinear simulation models for an F-5A and an F-16 configurations are used to design dampers to satisfy specifications on flying qualities and control systems to prevent departure. The results indicate that the present method is simple in formulation and effective in satisfying the design objectives.

Dynamics of glassy systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Cugliandolo, Leticia F.

2003-09-01

These lecture notes can be read in two ways. The first two Sections contain a review of the phenomenology of several physical systems with slow nonequilibrium dynamics. In the Conclusions we summarize the scenario for this temporal evolution derived from the solution to some solvable models (p spin and the like) that are intimately connected to the mode coupling approach (and similar ones) to super-cooled liquids. At the end we list a number of open problems of great relevance in this context. These Sections can be read independently of the body of the paper where we present some of the basic analytic techniques used to study the out of equilibrium dynamics of classical and quantum models with and without disorder. We start the technical part by briefly discussing the role played by the environment and by introducing and comparing its representation in the equilibrium and dynamic treatment of classical and quantum systems. We next explain the role played by explicit quenched disorder in both approaches. Later on we focus on analytical techniques; we expand on the dynamic functional methods, and the diagrammatic expansions and resummations used to derive macroscopic equations from the microscopic dynamics. We show why the macroscopic dynamic equations for disordered models and those resulting from self-consistent approximations to non-disordered ones coincide. We review some generic properties of dynamic systems evolving out of equilibrium like the modifications of the fluctuation-dissipation theorem, generic scaling forms of the correlation functions, etc. Finally we solve a family of mean-field models. The connection between the dynamic treatment and the analysis of the free-energy landscape of these models is also presented. We use pedagogical examples all along these lectures to illustrate the properties and results. (author)

Dynamic modelling of nuclear steam generators

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Kerlin, T.W.; Katz, E.M.; Freels, J.; Thakkar, J.

1980-01-01

Moving boundary, nodal models with dynamic energy balances, dynamic mass balances, quasi-static momentum balances, and an equivalent single channel approach have been developed for steam generators used in nuclear power plants. The model for the U-tube recirculation type steam generator is described and comparisons are made of responses from models of different complexity; non-linear versus linear, high-order versus low order, detailed modeling of the control system versus a simple control assumption. The results of dynamic tests on nuclear power systems show that when this steam generator model is included in a system simulation there is good agreement with actual plant performance. (author)

A TSK neuro-fuzzy approach for modeling highly dynamic systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Acampora, G.

2011-01-01

This paper introduces a new type of TSK-based neuro-fuzzy approach and its application to modeling highly dynamic systems. In details, our proposal performs an adaptive supervised learning on a collection of time series in order to create a so-called Timed Automata Based Fuzzy Controller, i.e. an

An investigation of factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values based on the system dynamics modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Lan, Tian-Syung; Chen, Kai-Ling; Chen, Pin-Chang; Ku, Chao-Tai; Chiu, Pei-Hsuan; Wang, Meng-Hsiang

2014-01-01

This study used system dynamics method to investigate the factors affecting elementary school students' BMI values. The construction of the dynamic model is divided into the qualitative causal loop and the quantitative system dynamics modeling. According to the system dynamics modeling, this study consisted of research on the four dimensions: student's personal life style, diet-relevant parenting behaviors, advocacy and implementation of school nutrition education, and students' peer interaction. The results of this study showed that students with more adequate health concepts usually have better eating behaviors and consequently have less chance of becoming obese. In addition, this study also verified that educational attainment and socioeconomic status of parents have a positive correlation with students' amounts of physical activity, and nutrition education has a prominent influence on changing students' high-calorie diets.

System dynamics model for environment - human systems interaction in the mining industry

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Pal, B.K.

1994-01-01

Use of advanced technology in the mining activities are polluting the natural environment, interfering with the normal life of the miners/residents. In this paper, health hazards due to underground workings and effect of environmental conditions on men are discussed. A composite system inter-relationship of the mining industries with the Government, society and environmental sectors is established. Allowing certain level of pollution, a system dynamics model is developed considering the parameters like more revenues from the mining industries, degradation of quality of life index - environmental index on long-term and short-term basis, new diseases due to pollution, social awareness, health care facilities, tax exemption etc. This model will help us to understand the optimisation of the parameters to establish the better interaction in the environment-human systems in the mining industries. 14 refs., 4 figs., 2 tabs

Using Scenario Visioning and Participatory System Dynamics Modeling to Investigate the Future: Lessons from Minnesota 2050

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Kathryn J. Draeger

2010-08-01

Full Text Available Both scenario visioning and participatory system dynamics modeling emphasize the dynamic and uncontrollable nature of complex socio-ecological systems, and the significance of multiple feedback mechanisms. These two methodologies complement one another, but are rarely used together. We partnered with regional organizations in Minnesota to design a future visioning process that incorporated both scenarios and participatory system dynamics modeling. The three purposes of this exercise were: first, to assist regional leaders in making strategic decisions that would make their communities sustainable; second, to identify research gaps that could impede the ability of regional and state groups to plan for the future; and finally, to introduce more systems thinking into planning and policy-making around environmental issues. We found that scenarios and modeling complemented one another, and that both techniques allowed regional groups to focus on the sustainability of fundamental support systems (energy, food, and water supply. The process introduced some creative tensions between imaginative scenario visioning and quantitative system dynamics modeling, and between creating desired futures (a strong cultural norm and inhabiting the future (a premise of the Minnesota 2050 exercise. We suggest that these tensions can stimulate more agile, strategic thinking about the future.

Identifying and Modeling Dynamic Preference Evolution in Multipurpose Water Resources Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Mason, E.; Giuliani, M.; Castelletti, A.; Amigoni, F.

2018-04-01

Multipurpose water systems are usually operated on a tradeoff of conflicting operating objectives. Under steady state climatic and socioeconomic conditions, such tradeoff is supposed to represent a fair and/or efficient preference. Extreme variability in external forcing might affect water operators' risk aversion and force a change in her/his preference. Properly accounting for these shifts is key to any rigorous retrospective assessment of the operator's behaviors, and to build descriptive models for projecting the future system evolution. In this study, we explore how the selection of different preferences is linked to variations in the external forcing. We argue that preference selection evolves according to recent, extreme variations in system performance: underperforming in one of the objectives pushes the preference toward the harmed objective. To test this assumption, we developed a rational procedure to simulate the operator's preference selection. We map this selection onto a multilateral negotiation, where multiple virtual agents independently optimize different objectives. The agents periodically negotiate a compromise policy for the operation of the system. Agents' attitudes in each negotiation step are determined by the recent system performance measured by the specific objective they maximize. We then propose a numerical model of preference dynamics that implements a concept from cognitive psychology, the availability bias. We test our modeling framework on a synthetic lake operated for flood control and water supply. Results show that our model successfully captures the operator's preference selection and dynamic evolution driven by extreme wet and dry situations.

Dynamic flowgraph modeling of process and control systems of a nuclear-based hydrogen production plant

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Al-Dabbagh, Ahmad W. [Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Ontario Institute of Technology, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, Ontario (Canada); Lu, Lixuan [Faculty of Energy Systems and Nuclear Science, Faculty of Engineering and Applied Science, University of Ontario Institute of Technology, 2000 Simcoe Street North, Oshawa, Ontario (Canada)

2010-09-15

Modeling and analysis of system reliability facilitate the identification of areas of potential improvement. The Dynamic Flowgraph Methodology (DFM) is an emerging discrete modeling framework that allows for capturing time dependent behaviour, switching logic and multi-state representation of system components. The objective of this research is to demonstrate the process of dynamic flowgraph modeling of a nuclear-based hydrogen production plant with the copper-chlorine (Cu-Cl) cycle. Modeling of the thermochemical process of the Cu-Cl cycle in conjunction with a networked control system proposed for monitoring and control of the process is provided. This forms the basis for future component selection. (author)

Pseudorandom numbers: evolutionary models in image processing, biology, and nonlinear dynamic systems

Science.gov (United States)

Yaroslavsky, Leonid P.

1996-11-01

We show that one can treat pseudo-random generators, evolutionary models of texture images, iterative local adaptive filters for image restoration and enhancement and growth models in biology and material sciences in a unified way as special cases of dynamic systems with a nonlinear feedback.

Modeling and Optimal Control of a Class of Warfare Hybrid Dynamic Systems Based on Lanchester (n,1) Attrition Model

OpenAIRE

Chen, Xiangyong; Zhang, Ancai

2014-01-01

For the particularity of warfare hybrid dynamic process, a class of warfare hybrid dynamic systems is established based on Lanchester equation in a (n,1) battle, where a heterogeneous force of n different troop types faces a homogeneous force. This model can be characterized by the interaction of continuous-time models (governed by Lanchester equation), and discrete event systems (described by variable tactics). Furthermore, an expository discussion is presented on an optimal variable tact...

A system dynamics evaluation model: implementation of health information exchange for public health reporting.

Science.gov (United States)

Merrill, Jacqueline A; Deegan, Michael; Wilson, Rosalind V; Kaushal, Rainu; Fredericks, Kimberly

2013-06-01

To evaluate the complex dynamics involved in implementing electronic health information exchange (HIE) for public health reporting at a state health department, and to identify policy implications to inform similar implementations. Qualitative data were collected over 8 months from seven experts at New York State Department of Health who implemented web services and protocols for querying, receipt, and validation of electronic data supplied by regional health information organizations. Extensive project documentation was also collected. During group meetings experts described the implementation process and created reference modes and causal diagrams that the evaluation team used to build a preliminary model. System dynamics modeling techniques were applied iteratively to build causal loop diagrams representing the implementation. The diagrams were validated iteratively by individual experts followed by group review online, and through confirmatory review of documents and artifacts. Three casual loop diagrams captured well-recognized system dynamics: Sliding Goals, Project Rework, and Maturity of Resources. The findings were associated with specific policies that address funding, leadership, ensuring expertise, planning for rework, communication, and timeline management. This evaluation illustrates the value of a qualitative approach to system dynamics modeling. As a tool for strategic thinking on complicated and intense processes, qualitative models can be produced with fewer resources than a full simulation, yet still provide insights that are timely and relevant. System dynamics techniques clarified endogenous and exogenous factors at play in a highly complex technology implementation, which may inform other states engaged in implementing HIE supported by federal Health Information Technology for Economic and Clinical Health (HITECH) legislation.

Self-Supervised Dynamical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Zak, Michail

2003-01-01

Some progress has been made in a continuing effort to develop mathematical models of the behaviors of multi-agent systems known in biology, economics, and sociology (e.g., systems ranging from single or a few biomolecules to many interacting higher organisms). Living systems can be characterized by nonlinear evolution of probability distributions over different possible choices of the next steps in their motions. One of the main challenges in mathematical modeling of living systems is to distinguish between random walks of purely physical origin (for instance, Brownian motions) and those of biological origin. Following a line of reasoning from prior research, it has been assumed, in the present development, that a biological random walk can be represented by a nonlinear mathematical model that represents coupled mental and motor dynamics incorporating the psychological concept of reflection or self-image. The nonlinear dynamics impart the lifelike ability to behave in ways and to exhibit patterns that depart from thermodynamic equilibrium. Reflection or self-image has traditionally been recognized as a basic element of intelligence. The nonlinear mathematical models of the present development are denoted self-supervised dynamical systems. They include (1) equations of classical dynamics, including random components caused by uncertainties in initial conditions and by Langevin forces, coupled with (2) the corresponding Liouville or Fokker-Planck equations that describe the evolutions of probability densities that represent the uncertainties. The coupling is effected by fictitious information-based forces, denoted supervising forces, composed of probability densities and functionals thereof. The equations of classical mechanics represent motor dynamics that is, dynamics in the traditional sense, signifying Newton s equations of motion. The evolution of the probability densities represents mental dynamics or self-image. Then the interaction between the physical and

A Dynamic Simulation Model of the Management Accounting Information Systems (MAIS)

Science.gov (United States)

Konstantopoulos, Nikolaos; Bekiaris, Michail G.; Zounta, Stella

2007-12-01

The aim of this paper is to examine the factors which determine the problems and the advantages on the design of management accounting information systems (MAIS). A simulation is carried out with a dynamic model of the MAIS design.

Co-simulation of dynamic systems in parallel and serial model configurations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Sweafford, Trevor; Yoon, Hwan Sik

2013-01-01

Recent advancement in simulation software and computation hardware make it realizable to simulate complex dynamic systems comprised of multiple submodels developed in different modeling languages. The so-called co-simulation enables one to study various aspects of a complex dynamic system with heterogeneous submodels in a cost-effective manner. Among several different model configurations for co-simulation, synchronized parallel configuration is regarded to expedite the simulation process by simulation multiple sub models concurrently on a multi core processor. In this paper, computational accuracies as well as computation time are studied for three different co-simulation frameworks : integrated, serial, and parallel. for this purpose, analytical evaluations of the three different methods are made using the explicit Euler method and then they are applied to two-DOF mass-spring systems. The result show that while the parallel simulation configuration produces the same accurate results as the integrated configuration, results of the serial configuration, results of the serial configuration show a slight deviation. it is also shown that the computation time can be reduced by running simulation in the parallel configuration. Therefore, it can be concluded that the synchronized parallel simulation methodology is the best for both simulation accuracy and time efficiency.

Discrete dynamic modeling of cellular signaling networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Albert, Réka; Wang, Rui-Sheng

2009-01-01

Understanding signal transduction in cellular systems is a central issue in systems biology. Numerous experiments from different laboratories generate an abundance of individual components and causal interactions mediating environmental and developmental signals. However, for many signal transduction systems there is insufficient information on the overall structure and the molecular mechanisms involved in the signaling network. Moreover, lack of kinetic and temporal information makes it difficult to construct quantitative models of signal transduction pathways. Discrete dynamic modeling, combined with network analysis, provides an effective way to integrate fragmentary knowledge of regulatory interactions into a predictive mathematical model which is able to describe the time evolution of the system without the requirement for kinetic parameters. This chapter introduces the fundamental concepts of discrete dynamic modeling, particularly focusing on Boolean dynamic models. We describe this method step-by-step in the context of cellular signaling networks. Several variants of Boolean dynamic models including threshold Boolean networks and piecewise linear systems are also covered, followed by two examples of successful application of discrete dynamic modeling in cell biology.

A dynamic model of the reactor coolant system flow for KMRR plant simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Rhee, B.W.; Noh, T.W.; Park, C.; Sim, B.S.; Oh, S.K.

1990-01-01

To support computer simulation studies for reactor control system design and performance evaluation, a dynamic model of the reactor coolant system (RCS) and reflector cooling system has been developed. This model is composed of the reactor coolant loop momentum equation, RCS pump dynamic equation, RCS pump characteristic equation, and the energy equation for the coolant inside the various components and piping. The model is versatile enough to simulate the normal steady-state conditions as well as most of the anticipated flow transients without pipe rupture. This model has been successfully implemented as the plant simulation code KMRRSIM for the Korea Multi-purpose Research Reactor and is now under extensive validation testing. The initial stage of validation has been comparison of its result with that of already validated, more detailed reactor system transient codes such as RELAP5. The results, as compared to the predictions by RELAP5 simulation, have been generally found to be very encouraging and the model is judged to be accurate enough to fulfill its intended purpose. However, this model will continue to be validated against other plant's data and eventually will be assessed by test data from KMRR

Intrinsic dynamics of heart regulatory systems on short timescales: from experiment to modelling

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Khovanov, I A; Khovanova, N A; McClintock, P V E; Stefanovska, A

2009-01-01

We discuss open problems related to the stochastic modelling of cardiac function. The work is based on an experimental investigation of the dynamics of heart rate variability (HRV) in the absence of respiratory perturbations. We consider first the cardiac control system on short timescales via an analysis of HRV within the framework of a random walk approach. Our experiments show that HRV on timescales of less than a minute takes the form of free diffusion, close to Brownian motion, which can be described as a non-stationary process with stationary increments. Secondly, we consider the inverse problem of modelling the state of the control system so as to reproduce the experimentally observed HRV statistics of. We discuss some simple toy models and identify open problems for the modelling of heart dynamics

Modeling a nucleon system: static and dynamical properties - density fluctuations

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Idier, D.

1997-01-01

This thesis sets forth a quasi-particle model for the static and dynamical properties of nuclear matter. This model is based on a scale ratio of quasi-particle to nucleons and the projection of the semi-classical distribution on a coherent Gaussian state basis. The first chapter is dealing with the transport equations, particularly with the Vlasov equation for Wigner distribution function. The second one is devoted to the statics of nuclear matter. Here, the sampling effect upon the nuclear density is treated and the state equation of the Gaussian fluid is compared with that given by Hartree-Fock approximation. We define state equation as the relationship between the nucleon binding energy and density, for a given temperature. The curvature around the state equation minimum of the quasi-particle system is shown to be related to the speed of propagation of density perturbation. The volume energy and the surface properties of a (semi-)infinite nucleon system are derived. For the resultant saturated auto-coherent semi-infinite system of quasi-particles the surface coefficient appearing in the mass formula is extracted as well as the system density profile. The third chapter treats the dynamics of the two-particle residual interactions. The effect of different parameters on relaxation of a nucleon system without a mean field is studied by means of a Eulerian and Lagrangian modeling. The fourth chapter treats the volume instabilities (spinodal decomposition) in nuclear matter. The quasi-particle systems, initially prepared in the spinodal region of the utilized interaction, are set to evolve. It is shown then that the scale ratio acts upon the amount of fluctuations injected in the system. The inhomogeneity degree and a proper time are defined and the role of collisions in the spinodal decomposition as well as that of the initial temperature and density, are investigated. Assuming different effective macroscopic interactions, the influence of quantities as

Overshoot in biological systems modelled by Markov chains: a non-equilibrium dynamic phenomenon.

Science.gov (United States)

Jia, Chen; Qian, Minping; Jiang, Daquan

2014-08-01

A number of biological systems can be modelled by Markov chains. Recently, there has been an increasing concern about when biological systems modelled by Markov chains will perform a dynamic phenomenon called overshoot. In this study, the authors found that the steady-state behaviour of the system will have a great effect on the occurrence of overshoot. They showed that overshoot in general cannot occur in systems that will finally approach an equilibrium steady state. They further classified overshoot into two types, named as simple overshoot and oscillating overshoot. They showed that except for extreme cases, oscillating overshoot will occur if the system is far from equilibrium. All these results clearly show that overshoot is a non-equilibrium dynamic phenomenon with energy consumption. In addition, the main result in this study is validated with real experimental data.

Dynamic modeling and response of soil-wall systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Veletsos, A.S.; Younan, A.H.

1993-10-01

The study reported herein is the third in a series of investigations motivated by need to gain improved understanding of the responses to earthquakes of deeply embedded and underground tanks storing radioactive wastes, and to develop rational but simple methods of analysis and design for such systems. Following a brief review of the errors that may result from the use of a popular model for evaluating the dynamic soil forces induced in a base-excited rigid wall retaining an elastic stratum, the sources of the errors are identified and a modification is proposed which defines correctly the action of the system. In the proposed modification, the stratum is modeled by a series of elastically supported, semi-infinite horizontal bars with distributed mass instead of massless springs. The concepts involved are introduced by reference to a system composed of a fixed-based wall and a homogeneous elastic stratum, and are then applied to the analysis of more complex soil-wall systems. Both harmonic and transient excitations are considered, and comprehensive numerical solutions are presented which elucidate the actions involved and the effects and relative importance of the relevant parameters

Dynamic Thermal Model And Control Of A Pem Fuel Cell System

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Liso, Vincenzo; Nielsen, Mads Pagh

2013-01-01

the fuel cell system. A PID temperature control is implemented to study the effect of stack temperature on settling times of other variables such as stack voltage, air flow rate, oxygen excess ratio and net power of the stack. The model allows an assessment of the effect of operating parameters (stack...... power output, cooling water flow rate, air flow rate, and environmental temperature) and parameter interactions on the system thermal performance. The model represents a useful tool to determine the operating temperatures of the various components of the thermal system, and thus to fully assess......A lumped parameter dynamic model is developed for predicting the stack performance, temperatures of the exit reactant gases and coolant liquid outlet in a proton-exchange membrane fuel cell (PEMFC) system. The air compressor, humidifier and cooling heat exchanger models are integrated to study...

An Investigation of Factors Affecting Elementary School Students’ BMI Values Based on the System Dynamics Modeling

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tian-Syung Lan

2014-01-01

Full Text Available This study used system dynamics method to investigate the factors affecting elementary school students’ BMI values. The construction of the dynamic model is divided into the qualitative causal loop and the quantitative system dynamics modeling. According to the system dynamics modeling, this study consisted of research on the four dimensions: student’s personal life style, diet-relevant parenting behaviors, advocacy and implementation of school nutrition education, and students’ peer interaction. The results of this study showed that students with more adequate health concepts usually have better eating behaviors and consequently have less chance of becoming obese. In addition, this study also verified that educational attainment and socioeconomic status of parents have a positive correlation with students’ amounts of physical activity, and nutrition education has a prominent influence on changing students’ high-calorie diets.

Modelling machine ensembles with discrete event dynamical system theory

Science.gov (United States)

Hunter, Dan

1990-01-01

Discrete Event Dynamical System (DEDS) theory can be utilized as a control strategy for future complex machine ensembles that will be required for in-space construction. The control strategy involves orchestrating a set of interactive submachines to perform a set of tasks for a given set of constraints such as minimum time, minimum energy, or maximum machine utilization. Machine ensembles can be hierarchically modeled as a global model that combines the operations of the individual submachines. These submachines are represented in the global model as local models. Local models, from the perspective of DEDS theory , are described by the following: a set of system and transition states, an event alphabet that portrays actions that takes a submachine from one state to another, an initial system state, a partial function that maps the current state and event alphabet to the next state, and the time required for the event to occur. Each submachine in the machine ensemble is presented by a unique local model. The global model combines the local models such that the local models can operate in parallel under the additional logistic and physical constraints due to submachine interactions. The global model is constructed from the states, events, event functions, and timing requirements of the local models. Supervisory control can be implemented in the global model by various methods such as task scheduling (open-loop control) or implementing a feedback DEDS controller (closed-loop control).

Dynamic information architecture system (DIAS) : multiple model simulation management.

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Simunich, K. L.; Sydelko, P.; Dolph, J.; Christiansen, J.

2002-05-13

Dynamic Information Architecture System (DIAS) is a flexible, extensible, object-based framework for developing and maintaining complex multidisciplinary simulations of a wide variety of application contexts. The modeling domain of a specific DIAS-based simulation is determined by (1) software Entity (domain-specific) objects that represent the real-world entities that comprise the problem space (atmosphere, watershed, human), and (2) simulation models and other data processing applications that express the dynamic behaviors of the domain entities. In DIAS, models communicate only with Entity objects, never with each other. Each Entity object has a number of Parameter and Aspect (of behavior) objects associated with it. The Parameter objects contain the state properties of the Entity object. The Aspect objects represent the behaviors of the Entity object and how it interacts with other objects. DIAS extends the ''Object'' paradigm by abstraction of the object's dynamic behaviors, separating the ''WHAT'' from the ''HOW.'' DIAS object class definitions contain an abstract description of the various aspects of the object's behavior (the WHAT), but no implementation details (the HOW). Separate DIAS models/applications carry the implementation of object behaviors (the HOW). Any model deemed appropriate, including existing legacy-type models written in other languages, can drive entity object behavior. The DIAS design promotes plug-and-play of alternative models, with minimal recoding of existing applications. The DIAS Context Builder object builds a constructs or scenario for the simulation, based on developer specification and user inputs. Because DIAS is a discrete event simulation system, there is a Simulation Manager object with which all events are processed. Any class that registers to receive events must implement an event handler (method) to process the event during execution. Event handlers

Modelling temperature dynamics of a district heating system in Naestved, Denmark-A case study

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gabrielaitiene, Irina; Bohm, Benny; Sunden, Bengt

2007-01-01

Modelling the temperature dynamics of a district heating system is typically validated for a single pipe or a system with limited information about dynamic consumer behaviour. In the present work, time dependent consumer data from the Naestved district heating system was used to investigate the ability of modelling tools to represent the temperature profile distortion throughout an entire heating system network. The Naestved district heating subsystem was modelled by two approaches (the node method developed at the Technical University of Denmark and the software TERMIS), and these modelling results were compared with measured data. The results indicate that the discrepancies between the predicted and measured temperatures are pronounced for consumers located in pipelines at distant pipelines containing numerous bends and fittings. Additionally, it was found that representing the consumer behaviour on an annual average basis introduced a deviation between the predicted and the measured return temperatures at the heat source

Dynamics of the diffusive DM-DE interaction – Dynamical system approach

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Haba, Zbigniew [Institute of Theoretical Physics, University of Wroclaw, Plac Maxa Borna 9, 50-204 Wrocław (Poland); Stachowski, Aleksander; Szydłowski, Marek, E-mail: zhab@ift.uni.wroc.pl, E-mail: aleksander.stachowski@uj.edu.pl, E-mail: marek.szydlowski@uj.edu.pl [Astronomical Observatory, Jagiellonian University, Orla 171, 30-244 Krakow (Poland)

2016-07-01

We discuss dynamics of a model of an energy transfer between dark energy (DE) and dark matter (DM) . The energy transfer is determined by a non-conservation law resulting from a diffusion of dark matter in an environment of dark energy. The relativistic invariance defines the diffusion in a unique way. The system can contain baryonic matter and radiation which do not interact with the dark sector. We treat the Friedman equation and the conservation laws as a closed dynamical system. The dynamics of the model is examined using the dynamical systems methods for demonstration how solutions depend on initial conditions. We also fit the model parameters using astronomical observation: SNIa, H ( z ), BAO and Alcock-Paczynski test. We show that the model with diffuse DM-DE is consistent with the data.

Dynamics of Financial System: A System Dynamics Approach

OpenAIRE

Girish K. Nair; Lewlyn Lester Raj Rodrigues

2013-01-01

There are several ratios which define the financial health of an organization but the importance of Net cash flow, Gross income, Net income, Pending bills, Receivable bills, Debt, and Book value can never be undermined as they give the exact picture of the financial condition. While there are several approaches to study the dynamics of these variables, system dynamics based modelling and simulation is one of the modern techniques. The paper explores this method to simulate the before mentione...

Dynamical Systems for Creative Technology

NARCIS (Netherlands)

van Amerongen, J.

2010-01-01

Dynamical Systems for Creative Technology gives a concise description of the physical properties of electrical, mechanical and hydraulic systems. Emphasis is placed on modelling the dynamical properties of these systems. By using a system’s approach it is shown that a limited number of mathematical

The Balanced Scorecard and the Strategic Learning Process: A System Dynamics Modeling Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Steen Nielsen

2015-01-01

Full Text Available The main purpose of this paper is to improve on the conceptual as well as the methodological aspects of BSC as a quantitative model by combining elements from traditional balanced scorecard (BSC thinking with the Systems Thinking. This is done by combining short and long term aspects of measurements. The result is then used to build and construct a balanced scorecard model for strategic learning with the specific aim to maintain satisfied customers and motivated employees. Strategic planning, operational execution, feedback, and learning are some of the most important key features of any performance measurement model. This paper aims to address not only the conceptual domain related to BSC, that is, learning and system dynamics causality and feedback, but also the methodological domain concept of precision solved by differential equations. Our results show how a potential move from a static strategic vision map to a linked and dynamic understanding may be not fully realistic but very useful for learning purposes. The new knowledge obtained from the learning feedbacks fertilizes both decision discussion and decision-making and what may be required in order to move to the next level of BSC and system dynamics integration.

Evaluation of Student Models on Current Socio-Scientific Topics Based on System Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Nuhoglu, Hasret

2014-01-01

This study aims to 1) enable primary school students to develop models that will help them understand and analyze a system, through a learning process based on system dynamics approach, 2) examine and evaluate students' models related to socio-scientific issues using certain criteria. The research method used is a case study. The study sample…

Introduction to turbulent dynamical systems in complex systems

CERN Document Server

Majda, Andrew J

2016-01-01

This volume is a research expository article on the applied mathematics of turbulent dynamical systems through the paradigm of modern applied mathematics. It involves the blending of rigorous mathematical theory, qualitative and quantitative modeling, and novel numerical procedures driven by the goal of understanding physical phenomena which are of central importance to the field. The contents cover general framework, concrete examples, and instructive qualitative models. Accessible open problems are mentioned throughout. Topics covered include: · Geophysical flows with rotation, topography, deterministic and random forcing · New statistical energy principles for general turbulent dynamical systems, with applications · Linear statistical response theory combined with information theory to cope with model errors · Reduced low order models · Recent mathematical strategies for online data assimilation of turbulent dynamical systems as well as rigorous results for finite ensemble Kalman filters The volume wi...

MODELING OF DYNAMIC SYSTEMS WITH MODULATION BY MEANS OF KRONECKER VECTOR-MATRIX REPRESENTATION

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

A. S. Vasilyev

2015-09-01

Full Text Available The paper deals with modeling of dynamic systems with modulation by the possibilities of state-space method. This method, being the basis of modern control theory, is based on the possibilities of vector-matrix formalism of linear algebra and helps to solve various problems of technical control of continuous and discrete nature invariant with respect to the dimension of their “input-output” objects. Unfortunately, it turned its back on the wide group of control systems, which hardware environment modulates signals. The marked system deficiency is partially offset by this paper, which proposes Kronecker vector-matrix representations for purposes of system representation of processes with signal modulation. The main result is vector-matrix representation of processes with modulation with no formal difference from continuous systems. It has been found that abilities of these representations could be effectively used in research of systems with modulation. Obtained model representations of processes with modulation are best adapted to the state-space method. These approaches for counting eigenvalues of Kronecker matrix summaries, that are matrix basis of model representations of processes described by Kronecker vector products, give the possibility to use modal direction in research of dynamics for systems with modulation. It is shown that the use of controllability for eigenvalues of general matrixes applied to Kronecker structures enabled to divide successfully eigenvalue spectrum into directed and not directed components. Obtained findings including design problems for models of dynamic processes with modulation based on the features of Kronecker vector and matrix structures, invariant with respect to the dimension of input-output relations, are applicable in the development of alternate current servo drives.

A quantitative dynamic systems model of health-related quality of life among older adults

Science.gov (United States)

Roppolo, Mattia; Kunnen, E Saskia; van Geert, Paul L; Mulasso, Anna; Rabaglietti, Emanuela

2015-01-01

Health-related quality of life (HRQOL) is a person-centered concept. The analysis of HRQOL is highly relevant in the aged population, which is generally suffering from health decline. Starting from a conceptual dynamic systems model that describes the development of HRQOL in individuals over time, this study aims to develop and test a quantitative dynamic systems model, in order to reveal the possible dynamic trends of HRQOL among older adults. The model is tested in different ways: first, with a calibration procedure to test whether the model produces theoretically plausible results, and second, with a preliminary validation procedure using empirical data of 194 older adults. This first validation tested the prediction that given a particular starting point (first empirical data point), the model will generate dynamic trajectories that lead to the observed endpoint (second empirical data point). The analyses reveal that the quantitative model produces theoretically plausible trajectories, thus providing support for the calibration procedure. Furthermore, the analyses of validation show a good fit between empirical and simulated data. In fact, no differences were found in the comparison between empirical and simulated final data for the same subgroup of participants, whereas the comparison between different subgroups of people resulted in significant differences. These data provide an initial basis of evidence for the dynamic nature of HRQOL during the aging process. Therefore, these data may give new theoretical and applied insights into the study of HRQOL and its development with time in the aging population. PMID:26604722

Dynamic Modeling of ThermoFluid Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Jensen, Jakob Munch

2003-01-01

The objective of the present study has been to developed dynamic models for two-phase flow in pipes (evaporation and condensation). Special attention has been given to modeling evaporators for refrigeration plant particular dry-expansion evaporators. Models of different complexity have been...... formulated. The different models deviate with respect to the detail¿s included and calculation time in connection with simulation. The models have been implemented in a new library named ThermoTwoPhase to the programming language Modelica. A test rig has been built with an evaporator instrumented in a way...

SELECT NUMERICAL METHODS FOR MODELING THE DYNAMICS SYSTEMS

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tetiana D. Panchenko

2016-07-01

Full Text Available The article deals with the creation of methodical support for mathematical modeling of dynamic processes in elements of the systems and complexes. As mathematical models ordinary differential equations have been used. The coefficients of the equations of the models can be nonlinear functions of the process. The projection-grid method is used as the main tool. It has been described iterative method algorithms taking into account the approximate solution prior to the first iteration and proposed adaptive control computing process. The original method of estimation error in the calculation solutions as well as for a given level of error of the technique solutions purpose adaptive method for solving configuration parameters is offered. A method for setting an adaptive method for solving the settings for a given level of error is given. The proposed method can be used for distributed computing.

Optically levitated nanoparticle as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Ricci, F; Rica, R A; Spasenović, M; Gieseler, J; Rondin, L; Novotny, L; Quidant, R

2017-05-09

Nano-mechanical resonators have gained an increasing importance in nanotechnology owing to their contributions to both fundamental and applied science. Yet, their small dimensions and mass raises some challenges as their dynamics gets dominated by nonlinearities that degrade their performance, for instance in sensing applications. Here, we report on the precise control of the nonlinear and stochastic bistable dynamics of a levitated nanoparticle in high vacuum. We demonstrate how it can lead to efficient signal amplification schemes, including stochastic resonance. This work contributes to showing the use of levitated nanoparticles as a model system for stochastic bistable dynamics, with applications to a wide variety of fields.

Object Oriented Toolbox for Modelling and Simulation of Dynamical Systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Poulsen, Mikael Zebbelin; Wagner, Falko Jens; Thomsen, Per Grove

1998-01-01

This paper presents the results of an ongoing project, dealing with design and implementation of a simulation toolbox based on object oriented modelling techniques. The paper describes an experimental implementation of parts of such a toolbox in C++, and discusses the experiences drawn from that ...... that process. Essential to the work is the focus on simulation of complex dynamical systems, from modelling the single components/subsystems to building complete systemssuch a toolbox in C++, and discusses the experiences drawn from that process....

Dynamic modeling of gas turbines in integrated gasification fuel cell systems

Science.gov (United States)

Maclay, James Davenport

2009-12-01

Solid oxide fuel cell-gas turbine (SOFC-GT) hybrid systems for use in integrated gasification fuel cell (IGFC) systems operating on coal will stretch existing fossil fuel reserves, generate power with less environmental impact, while having a cost of electricity advantage over most competing technologies. However, the dynamic performance of a SOFC-GT in IGFC applications has not been previously studied in detail. Of particular importance is how the turbo-machinery will be designed, controlled and operated in such applications; this is the focus of the current work. Perturbation and dynamic response analyses using numerical SimulinkRTM models indicate that compressor surge is the predominant concern for safe dynamic turbo-machinery operation while shaft over-speed and excessive turbine inlet temperatures are secondary concerns. Fuel cell temperature gradients and anode-cathode differential pressures were found to be the greatest concerns for safe dynamic fuel cell operation. Two control strategies were compared, that of constant gas turbine shaft speed and constant fuel cell temperature, utilizing a variable speed gas turbine. Neither control strategy could eliminate all vulnerabilities during dynamic operation. Constant fuel cell temperature control ensures safe fuel cell operation, while constant speed control does not. However, compressor surge is more likely with constant fuel cell temperature control than with constant speed control. Design strategies that provide greater surge margin while utilizing constant fuel cell temperature control include increasing turbine design mass flow and decreasing turbine design inlet pressure, increasing compressor design pressure ratio and decreasing compressor design mass flow, decreasing plenum volume, decreasing shaft moment of inertia, decreasing fuel cell pressure drop, maintaining constant compressor inlet air temperature. However, these strategies in some cases incur an efficiency penalty. A broad comparison of cycles

Measurement Model Nonlinearity in Estimation of Dynamical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Majji, Manoranjan; Junkins, J. L.; Turner, J. D.

2012-06-01

The role of nonlinearity of the measurement model and its interactions with the uncertainty of measurements and geometry of the problem is studied in this paper. An examination of the transformations of the probability density function in various coordinate systems is presented for several astrodynamics applications. Smooth and analytic nonlinear functions are considered for the studies on the exact transformation of uncertainty. Special emphasis is given to understanding the role of change of variables in the calculus of random variables. The transformation of probability density functions through mappings is shown to provide insight in to understanding the evolution of uncertainty in nonlinear systems. Examples are presented to highlight salient aspects of the discussion. A sequential orbit determination problem is analyzed, where the transformation formula provides useful insights for making the choice of coordinates for estimation of dynamic systems.

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

OpenAIRE

Hansen, A.D.; Jauch, C.; Sørensen, Poul Ejnar; Iov, F.; Blaabjerg, F.

2004-01-01

The present report describes the dynamic wind turbine models implemented in the power system simulation tool DIgSILENT (Version 12.0). The developed models are a part of the results of a national research project, whose overall objective is to create amodel database in different simulation tools. This model database should be able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The repo...

Evaluation of Sustainability of Brazilian Ethanol Production: A model in System Dynamics

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Arnoldo Jose de Hoyos Guevara

2017-01-01

Full Text Available System dynamics is an approach to analyze the behavior of complex systems, such as the productive chains, strictly considering the inherent characteristics. This approach is based on mathematical concepts of nonlinear processes developed in mathematics and physics and consolidated in engineering. The concepts inherent in this approach assists in creating a mathematical model that represents a production chain by using computer simulation. Thus, the main objective of this paper is to present the formalization of the dynamic model of assessing the sustainability of Brazilian ethanol production. We analyzed the external environment and the scenarios needed for a deeper understanding of relation of cause and effect, causal loops and diagrams of flows and stocks because of the awareness stage, with regard to understanding the problems involved, according to methodology known as design science.

Application of Computer Systems of Dynamic Modeling for Evaluation of Protection Behavior of Electric Power Lines

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

F. A. Romaniouk

2008-01-01

Full Text Available The paper considers problems pertaining to mathematical modeling of a transformer substation with protected electric power lines. It is proposed to use systems of dynamic modeling for investigations applying a method of calculative experiment with the purpose to evaluate behavior of protection and automation at short circuits. The paper contains comparison of results obtained with the help of program-simulated complex on the basis of a complex mathematical model of an object and with the help of dynamic modeling system – MathLab.

Differential equation models for sharp threshold dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Schramm, Harrison C; Dimitrov, Nedialko B

2014-01-01

We develop an extension to differential equation models of dynamical systems to allow us to analyze probabilistic threshold dynamics that fundamentally and globally change system behavior. We apply our novel modeling approach to two cases of interest: a model of infectious disease modified for malware where a detection event drastically changes dynamics by introducing a new class in competition with the original infection; and the Lanchester model of armed conflict, where the loss of a key capability drastically changes the effectiveness of one of the sides. We derive and demonstrate a step-by-step, repeatable method for applying our novel modeling approach to an arbitrary system, and we compare the resulting differential equations to simulations of the system's random progression. Our work leads to a simple and easily implemented method for analyzing probabilistic threshold dynamics using differential equations. Published by Elsevier Inc.

Dynamics of biofilm formation in a model drinking water distribution system

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Boe-Hansen, Rasmus; Albrechtsen, Hans-Jørgen; Arvin, Erik

2002-01-01

The dynamics of biofilm formation in non-chlorinated groundwater-based drinking water was studied in a model distribution system. The formation of biofilm was closely monitored for a period of 522 days by total bacterial counts (AODC), heterotrophic plate counts (R2A media), and ATP content...

Dynamic modeling, experimental evaluation, optimal design and control of integrated fuel cell system and hybrid energy systems for building demands

Science.gov (United States)

Nguyen, Gia Luong Huu

Fuel cells can produce electricity with high efficiency, low pollutants, and low noise. With the advent of fuel cell technologies, fuel cell systems have since been demonstrated as reliable power generators with power outputs from a few watts to a few megawatts. With proper equipment, fuel cell systems can produce heating and cooling, thus increased its overall efficiency. To increase the acceptance from electrical utilities and building owners, fuel cell systems must operate more dynamically and integrate well with renewable energy resources. This research studies the dynamic performance of fuel cells and the integration of fuel cells with other equipment in three levels: (i) the fuel cell stack operating on hydrogen and reformate gases, (ii) the fuel cell system consisting of a fuel reformer, a fuel cell stack, and a heat recovery unit, and (iii) the hybrid energy system consisting of photovoltaic panels, fuel cell system, and energy storage. In the first part, this research studied the steady-state and dynamic performance of a high temperature PEM fuel cell stack. Collaborators at Aalborg University (Aalborg, Denmark) conducted experiments on a high temperature PEM fuel cell short stack at steady-state and transients. Along with the experimental activities, this research developed a first-principles dynamic model of a fuel cell stack. The dynamic model developed in this research was compared to the experimental results when operating on different reformate concentrations. Finally, the dynamic performance of the fuel cell stack for a rapid increase and rapid decrease in power was evaluated. The dynamic model well predicted the performance of the well-performing cells in the experimental fuel cell stack. The second part of the research studied the dynamic response of a high temperature PEM fuel cell system consisting of a fuel reformer, a fuel cell stack, and a heat recovery unit with high thermal integration. After verifying the model performance with the

Hopping system control with an approximated dynamics model and upper-body motion

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Lee, Hyang Jun; Oh, Jun Ho [KAIST, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

2015-11-15

A hopping system is highly non-linear due to the nature of its dynamics, which has alternating phases in a cycle, flight and stance phases and related transitions. Every control method that stabilizes the hopping system satisfies the Poincaré stability condition. At the Poincaré section, a hopping system cycle is considered as discrete sectional data set. By controlling the sectional data in a discrete control form, we can generate a stable hopping cycle. We utilize phase-mapping matrices to build a Poincaré return map by approximating the dynamics of the hopping system with SLIP model. We can generate various Poincaré stable gait patterns with the approximated discrete control form which uses upper-body motions as inputs.

General method to find the attractors of discrete dynamic models of biological systems

Science.gov (United States)

Gan, Xiao; Albert, Réka

2018-04-01

Analyzing the long-term behaviors (attractors) of dynamic models of biological networks can provide valuable insight. We propose a general method that can find the attractors of multilevel discrete dynamical systems by extending a method that finds the attractors of a Boolean network model. The previous method is based on finding stable motifs, subgraphs whose nodes' states can stabilize on their own. We extend the framework from binary states to any finite discrete levels by creating a virtual node for each level of a multilevel node, and describing each virtual node with a quasi-Boolean function. We then create an expanded representation of the multilevel network, find multilevel stable motifs and oscillating motifs, and identify attractors by successive network reduction. In this way, we find both fixed point attractors and complex attractors. We implemented an algorithm, which we test and validate on representative synthetic networks and on published multilevel models of biological networks. Despite its primary motivation to analyze biological networks, our motif-based method is general and can be applied to any finite discrete dynamical system.

General method to find the attractors of discrete dynamic models of biological systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Gan, Xiao; Albert, Réka

2018-04-01

Analyzing the long-term behaviors (attractors) of dynamic models of biological networks can provide valuable insight. We propose a general method that can find the attractors of multilevel discrete dynamical systems by extending a method that finds the attractors of a Boolean network model. The previous method is based on finding stable motifs, subgraphs whose nodes' states can stabilize on their own. We extend the framework from binary states to any finite discrete levels by creating a virtual node for each level of a multilevel node, and describing each virtual node with a quasi-Boolean function. We then create an expanded representation of the multilevel network, find multilevel stable motifs and oscillating motifs, and identify attractors by successive network reduction. In this way, we find both fixed point attractors and complex attractors. We implemented an algorithm, which we test and validate on representative synthetic networks and on published multilevel models of biological networks. Despite its primary motivation to analyze biological networks, our motif-based method is general and can be applied to any finite discrete dynamical system.

Robust and efficient parameter estimation in dynamic models of biological systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Gábor, Attila; Banga, Julio R

2015-10-29

Dynamic modelling provides a systematic framework to understand function in biological systems. Parameter estimation in nonlinear dynamic models remains a very challenging inverse problem due to its nonconvexity and ill-conditioning. Associated issues like overfitting and local solutions are usually not properly addressed in the systems biology literature despite their importance. Here we present a method for robust and efficient parameter estimation which uses two main strategies to surmount the aforementioned difficulties: (i) efficient global optimization to deal with nonconvexity, and (ii) proper regularization methods to handle ill-conditioning. In the case of regularization, we present a detailed critical comparison of methods and guidelines for properly tuning them. Further, we show how regularized estimations ensure the best trade-offs between bias and variance, reducing overfitting, and allowing the incorporation of prior knowledge in a systematic way. We illustrate the performance of the presented method with seven case studies of different nature and increasing complexity, considering several scenarios of data availability, measurement noise and prior knowledge. We show how our method ensures improved estimations with faster and more stable convergence. We also show how the calibrated models are more generalizable. Finally, we give a set of simple guidelines to apply this strategy to a wide variety of calibration problems. Here we provide a parameter estimation strategy which combines efficient global optimization with a regularization scheme. This method is able to calibrate dynamic models in an efficient and robust way, effectively fighting overfitting and allowing the incorporation of prior information.

Dynamic Modelling of a Solar Water Pumping System with Energy Storage

OpenAIRE

Shatadru Biswas; M. Tariq Iqbal

2018-01-01

This paper describes the dynamic modelling of a system used for extraction of groundwater for irrigation using an alternative source of energy. The system is designed based on data of an existing project in Lalmonirhat, Bangladesh. The system comprises a 38.4 kWp solar photovoltaic array, inverter, AC motor, and pump set, which can discharge a maximum of 1,930 m3 of water per day. MATLAB simulation is performed with two types of energy storage system: (i) electric energy using a battery bank ...

Nonlinear Dynamic Models in Advanced Life Support

Science.gov (United States)

Jones, Harry

2002-01-01

To facilitate analysis, ALS systems are often assumed to be linear and time invariant, but they usually have important nonlinear and dynamic aspects. Nonlinear dynamic behavior can be caused by time varying inputs, changes in system parameters, nonlinear system functions, closed loop feedback delays, and limits on buffer storage or processing rates. Dynamic models are usually cataloged according to the number of state variables. The simplest dynamic models are linear, using only integration, multiplication, addition, and subtraction of the state variables. A general linear model with only two state variables can produce all the possible dynamic behavior of linear systems with many state variables, including stability, oscillation, or exponential growth and decay. Linear systems can be described using mathematical analysis. Nonlinear dynamics can be fully explored only by computer simulations of models. Unexpected behavior is produced by simple models having only two or three state variables with simple mathematical relations between them. Closed loop feedback delays are a major source of system instability. Exceeding limits on buffer storage or processing rates forces systems to change operating mode. Different equilibrium points may be reached from different initial conditions. Instead of one stable equilibrium point, the system may have several equilibrium points, oscillate at different frequencies, or even behave chaotically, depending on the system inputs and initial conditions. The frequency spectrum of an output oscillation may contain harmonics and the sums and differences of input frequencies, but it may also contain a stable limit cycle oscillation not related to input frequencies. We must investigate the nonlinear dynamic aspects of advanced life support systems to understand and counter undesirable behavior.

Dynamic modelling of nitrous oxide emissions from three Swedish sludge liquor treatment systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindblom, E.; Arnell, M.; Flores-Alsina, X.

2014-01-01

The objective of this paper is to model the dynamics and validate the results of nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from three Swedish nitrifying/denitrifying, nitritation and anammox systems treating real anaerobic digester sludge liquor. The Activated Sludge Model No. 1 is extended to describe N2O...... production by both heterotrophic and autotrophic denitrification. In addition, mass transfer equations are implemented to characterize the dynamics of N2O in the water and the gas phases.The biochemical model is simulated and validated for two hydraulic patterns: (1) a sequencing batch reactor; and, (2...

Complexified dynamical systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Bender, Carl M; Holm, Darryl D; Hook, Daniel W

2007-01-01

Many dynamical systems, such as the Lotka-Volterra predator-prey model and the Euler equations for the free rotation of a rigid body, are PT symmetric. The standard and well-known real solutions to such dynamical systems constitute an infinitessimal subclass of the full set of complex solutions. This paper examines a subset of the complex solutions that contains the real solutions, namely those having PT symmetry. The condition of PT symmetry selects out complex solutions that are periodic. (fast track communication)

Strategic energy planning: Modelling and simulating energy market behaviours using system thinking and systems dynamics principles

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Papageorgiou, George Nathaniel

2005-01-01

In the face of limited energy reserves and the global warming phenomenon, Europe is undergoing a transition from rapidly depleting fossil fuels to renewable unconventional energy sources. During this transition period, energy shortfalls will occur and energy prices will be increasing in an oscillating manner. As a result of the turbulence and dynamicity that will accompany the transition period, energy analysts need new appropriate methods, techniques and tools in order to develop forecasts for the behaviour of energy markets, which would assist in the long term strategic energy planning and policy analysis. This paper reviews energy market behaviour as related to policy formation, and from a dynamic point of view through the use of ''systems thinking'' and ''system dynamics'' principles, provides a framework for modelling the energy production and consumption process in relation to their environment. Thereby, effective energy planning can be developed via computerised simulation using policy experimentation. In a demonstration model depicted in this paper, it is shown that disasters due to attractive policies can be avoided by using simple computer simulation. (Author)

Strategies for Reduced-Order Models in Uncertainty Quantification of Complex Turbulent Dynamical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Qi, Di

Turbulent dynamical systems are ubiquitous in science and engineering. Uncertainty quantification (UQ) in turbulent dynamical systems is a grand challenge where the goal is to obtain statistical estimates for key physical quantities. In the development of a proper UQ scheme for systems characterized by both a high-dimensional phase space and a large number of instabilities, significant model errors compared with the true natural signal are always unavoidable due to both the imperfect understanding of the underlying physical processes and the limited computational resources available. One central issue in contemporary research is the development of a systematic methodology for reduced order models that can recover the crucial features both with model fidelity in statistical equilibrium and with model sensitivity in response to perturbations. In the first part, we discuss a general mathematical framework to construct statistically accurate reduced-order models that have skill in capturing the statistical variability in the principal directions of a general class of complex systems with quadratic nonlinearity. A systematic hierarchy of simple statistical closure schemes, which are built through new global statistical energy conservation principles combined with statistical equilibrium fidelity, are designed and tested for UQ of these problems. Second, the capacity of imperfect low-order stochastic approximations to model extreme events in a passive scalar field advected by turbulent flows is investigated. The effects in complicated flow systems are considered including strong nonlinear and non-Gaussian interactions, and much simpler and cheaper imperfect models with model error are constructed to capture the crucial statistical features in the stationary tracer field. Several mathematical ideas are introduced to improve the prediction skill of the imperfect reduced-order models. Most importantly, empirical information theory and statistical linear response theory are

Impact of Cross-Axis Structural Dynamics on Validation of Linear Models for Space Launch System

Science.gov (United States)

Pei, Jing; Derry, Stephen D.; Zhou Zhiqiang; Newsom, Jerry R.

2014-01-01

A feasibility study was performed to examine the advisability of incorporating a set of Programmed Test Inputs (PTIs) during the Space Launch System (SLS) vehicle flight. The intent of these inputs is to provide validation to the preflight models for control system stability margins, aerodynamics, and structural dynamics. During October 2009, Ares I-X program was successful in carrying out a series of PTI maneuvers which provided a significant amount of valuable data for post-flight analysis. The resulting data comparisons showed excellent agreement with the preflight linear models across the frequency spectrum of interest. However unlike Ares I-X, the structural dynamics associated with the SLS boost phase configuration are far more complex and highly coupled in all three axes. This presents a challenge when implementing this similar system identification technique to SLS. Preliminary simulation results show noticeable mismatches between PTI validation and analytical linear models in the frequency range of the structural dynamics. An alternate approach was examined which demonstrates the potential for better overall characterization of the system frequency response as well as robustness of the control design.

Fault diagnosis for dynamic power system

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Thabet, A.; Abdelkrim, M.N.; Boutayeb, M.; Didier, G.; Chniba, S.

2011-01-01

The fault diagnosis problem for dynamic power systems is treated, the nonlinear dynamic model based on a differential algebraic equations is transformed with reduced index to a simple dynamic model. Two nonlinear observers are used for generating the fault signals for comparison purposes, one of them being an extended Kalman estimator and the other a new extended kalman filter with moving horizon with a study of convergence based on the choice of matrix of covariance of the noises of system and measurements. The paper illustrates a simulation study applied on IEEE 3 buses test system.

Model implementation for dynamic computation of system cost for advanced life support

Science.gov (United States)

Levri, J. A.; Vaccari, D. A.

2004-01-01

Life support system designs for long-duration space missions have a multitude of requirements drivers, such as mission objectives, political considerations, cost, crew wellness, inherent mission attributes, as well as many other influences. Evaluation of requirements satisfaction can be difficult, particularly at an early stage of mission design. Because launch cost is a critical factor and relatively easy to quantify, it is a point of focus in early mission design. The method used to determine launch cost influences the accuracy of the estimate. This paper discusses the appropriateness of dynamic mission simulation in estimating the launch cost of a life support system. This paper also provides an abbreviated example of a dynamic simulation life support model and possible ways in which such a model might be utilized for design improvement. c2004 COSPAR. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

A Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM)

OpenAIRE

Weber, Michael

2004-01-01

The interactions between climate and the socio-economic system are investigated with a Multi-Actor Dynamic Integrated Assessment Model (MADIAM) obtained by coupling a nonlinear impulse response model of the climate sub-system (NICCS) to a multi-actor dynamic economic model (MADEM). The main goal is to initiate a model development that is able to treat the dynamics of the coupled climate socio-economic system, including endogenous technological change, in a non-equilibrium situation, thereby o...

Generative Models of Conformational Dynamics

Science.gov (United States)

Langmead, Christopher James

2014-01-01

Atomistic simulations of the conformational dynamics of proteins can be performed using either Molecular Dynamics or Monte Carlo procedures. The ensembles of three-dimensional structures produced during simulation can be analyzed in a number of ways to elucidate the thermodynamic and kinetic properties of the system. The goal of this chapter is to review both traditional and emerging methods for learning generative models from atomistic simulation data. Here, the term ‘generative’ refers to a model of the joint probability distribution over the behaviors of the constituent atoms. In the context of molecular modeling, generative models reveal the correlation structure between the atoms, and may be used to predict how the system will respond to structural perturbations. We begin by discussing traditional methods, which produce multivariate Gaussian models. We then discuss GAMELAN (GrAphical Models of Energy LANdscapes), which produces generative models of complex, non-Gaussian conformational dynamics (e.g., allostery, binding, folding, etc) from long timescale simulation data. PMID:24446358

Applying dynamic priority scheduling scheme to static systems of pinwheel task model in power-aware scheduling.

Science.gov (United States)

Seol, Ye-In; Kim, Young-Kuk

2014-01-01

Power-aware scheduling reduces CPU energy consumption in hard real-time systems through dynamic voltage scaling (DVS). In this paper, we deal with pinwheel task model which is known as static and predictable task model and could be applied to various embedded or ubiquitous systems. In pinwheel task model, each task's priority is static and its execution sequence could be predetermined. There have been many static approaches to power-aware scheduling in pinwheel task model. But, in this paper, we will show that the dynamic priority scheduling results in power-aware scheduling could be applied to pinwheel task model. This method is more effective than adopting the previous static priority scheduling methods in saving energy consumption and, for the system being still static, it is more tractable and applicable to small sized embedded or ubiquitous computing. Also, we introduce a novel power-aware scheduling algorithm which exploits all slacks under preemptive earliest-deadline first scheduling which is optimal in uniprocessor system. The dynamic priority method presented in this paper could be applied directly to static systems of pinwheel task model. The simulation results show that the proposed algorithm with the algorithmic complexity of O(n) reduces the energy consumption by 10-80% over the existing algorithms.

Polynomic nonlinear dynamical systems - A residual sensitivity method for model reduction

Science.gov (United States)

Yurkovich, S.; Bugajski, D.; Sain, M.

1985-01-01

The motivation for using polynomic combinations of system states and inputs to model nonlinear dynamics systems is founded upon the classical theories of analysis and function representation. A feature of such representations is the need to make available all possible monomials in these variables, up to the degree specified, so as to provide for the description of widely varying functions within a broad class. For a particular application, however, certain monomials may be quite superfluous. This paper examines the possibility of removing monomials from the model in accordance with the level of sensitivity displayed by the residuals to their absence. Critical in these studies is the effect of system input excitation, and the effect of discarding monomial terms, upon the model parameter set. Therefore, model reduction is approached iteratively, with inputs redesigned at each iteration to ensure sufficient excitation of remaining monomials for parameter approximation. Examples are reported to illustrate the performance of such model reduction approaches.

Dynamic modelling of a PV pumping system with special consideration on water demand

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Campana, Pietro Elia; Li, Hailong; Yan, Jinyue

2013-01-01

Highlights: ► Evaluation of water demand and solar energy is essential for PV pumping system. ► The design for a PV water pumping system has been optimized based on dynamic simulations. ► It is important to conduct dynamic simulations to check the matching between water demand and water supply. ► AC pump driven by the fixed PV array is the most cost-effective solution. - Abstract: The exploitation of solar energy in remote areas through photovoltaic (PV) systems is an attractive solution for water pumping for irrigation systems. The design of a photovoltaic water pumping system (PVWPS) strictly depends on the estimation of the crop water requirements and land use since the water demand varies during the watering season and the solar irradiation changes time by time. It is of significance to conduct dynamic simulations in order to achieve the successful and optimal design. The aim of this paper is to develop a dynamic modelling tool for the design of a of photovoltaic water pumping system by combining the models of the water demand, the solar PV power and the pumping system, which can be used to validate the design procedure in terms of matching between water demand and water supply. Both alternate current (AC) and direct current (DC) pumps and both fixed and two-axis tracking PV array were analyzed. The tool has been applied in a case study. Results show that it has the ability to do rapid design and optimization of PV water pumping system by reducing the power peak and selecting the proper devices from both technical and economic viewpoints. Among the different alternatives considered in this study, the AC fixed system represented the best cost effective solution

Dynamic modeling of IGCC power plants

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Casella, F.; Colonna, P.

2012-01-01

Integrated Gasification Combined Cycle (IGCC) power plants are an effective option to reduce emissions and implement carbon-dioxide sequestration. The combination of a very complex fuel-processing plant and a combined cycle power station leads to challenging problems as far as dynamic operation is concerned. Dynamic performance is extremely relevant because recent developments in the electricity market push toward an ever more flexible and varying operation of power plants. A dynamic model of the entire system and models of its sub-systems are indispensable tools in order to perform computer simulations aimed at process and control design. This paper presents the development of the lumped-parameters dynamic model of an entrained-flow gasifier, with special emphasis on the modeling approach. The model is implemented into software by means of the Modelica language and validated by comparison with one set of data related to the steady operation of the gasifier of the Buggenum power station in the Netherlands. Furthermore, in order to demonstrate the potential of the proposed modeling approach and the use of simulation for control design purposes, a complete model of an exemplary IGCC power plant, including its control system, has been developed, by re-using existing models of combined cycle plant components; the results of a load dispatch ramp simulation are presented and shortly discussed. - Highlights: ► The acausal dynamic model of an entrained gasifier has been developed. ► The model can be used to perform system optimization and control studies. ► The model has been validated using field data. ► Model use is illustrated with an example showing the transient of an IGCC plant.

The Modeling and Complexity of Dynamical Systems by Means of Computation and Information Theories

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Robert Logozar

2011-12-01

Full Text Available We present the modeling of dynamical systems and finding of their complexity indicators by the use of concepts from computation and information theories, within the framework of J. P. Crutchfield's theory of  ε-machines. A short formal outline of the  ε-machines is given. In this approach, dynamical systems are analyzed directly from the time series that is received from a properly adjusted measuring instrument. The binary strings are parsed through the parse tree, within which morphologically and probabilistically unique subtrees or morphs are recognized as system states. The outline and precise interrelation of the information-theoretic entropies and complexities emanating from the model is given. The paper serves also as a theoretical foundation for the future presentation of the DSA program that implements the  ε-machines modeling up to the stochastic finite automata level.

Stochastic modeling and simulation of reaction-diffusion system with Hill function dynamics.

Science.gov (United States)

Chen, Minghan; Li, Fei; Wang, Shuo; Cao, Young

2017-03-14

Stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems presents great challenges for spatiotemporal biological modeling and simulation. One widely used framework for stochastic simulation of reaction-diffusion systems is reaction diffusion master equation (RDME). Previous studies have discovered that for the RDME, when discretization size approaches zero, reaction time for bimolecular reactions in high dimensional domains tends to infinity. In this paper, we demonstrate that in the 1D domain, highly nonlinear reaction dynamics given by Hill function may also have dramatic change when discretization size is smaller than a critical value. Moreover, we discuss methods to avoid this problem: smoothing over space, fixed length smoothing over space and a hybrid method. Our analysis reveals that the switch-like Hill dynamics reduces to a linear function of discretization size when the discretization size is small enough. The three proposed methods could correctly (under certain precision) simulate Hill function dynamics in the microscopic RDME system.

Stochastic Thermodynamics: A Dynamical Systems Approach

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Tanmay Rajpurohit

2017-12-01

Full Text Available In this paper, we develop an energy-based, large-scale dynamical system model driven by Markov diffusion processes to present a unified framework for statistical thermodynamics predicated on a stochastic dynamical systems formalism. Specifically, using a stochastic state space formulation, we develop a nonlinear stochastic compartmental dynamical system model characterized by energy conservation laws that is consistent with statistical thermodynamic principles. In particular, we show that the difference between the average supplied system energy and the average stored system energy for our stochastic thermodynamic model is a martingale with respect to the system filtration. In addition, we show that the average stored system energy is equal to the mean energy that can be extracted from the system and the mean energy that can be delivered to the system in order to transfer it from a zero energy level to an arbitrary nonempty subset in the state space over a finite stopping time.

Dynamic modeling approaches to characterize the functioning of health systems: A systematic review of the literature.

Science.gov (United States)

Chang, Angela Y; Ogbuoji, Osondu; Atun, Rifat; Verguet, Stéphane

2017-12-01

Universal Health Coverage (UHC) is one of the targets for the United Nations Sustainable Development Goal 3. The impetus for UHC has led to an increased demand for time-sensitive tools to enhance our knowledge of how health systems function and to evaluate impact of system interventions. We define the field of "health system modeling" (HSM) as an area of research where dynamic mathematical models can be designed in order to describe, predict, and quantitatively capture the functioning of health systems. HSM can be used to explore the dynamic relationships among different system components, including organizational design, financing and other resources (such as investments in resources and supply chain management systems) - what we call "inputs" - on access, coverage, and quality of care - what we call "outputs", toward improved health system "outcomes", namely increased levels and fairer distributions of population health and financial risk protection. We undertook a systematic review to identify the existing approaches used in HSM. We identified "systems thinking" - a conceptual and qualitative description of the critical interactions within a health system - as an important underlying precursor to HSM, and collated a critical collection of such articles. We then reviewed and categorized articles from two schools of thoughts: "system dynamics" (SD)" and "susceptible-infected-recovered-plus" (SIR+). SD emphasizes the notion of accumulations of stocks in the system, inflows and outflows, and causal feedback structure to predict intended and unintended consequences of policy interventions. The SIR + models link a typical disease transmission model with another that captures certain aspects of the system that impact the outcomes of the main model. These existing methods provide critical insights in informing the design of HSM, and provide a departure point to extend this research agenda. We highlight the opportunity to advance modeling methods to further understand

A model of gene expression based on random dynamical systems reveals modularity properties of gene regulatory networks.

Science.gov (United States)

Antoneli, Fernando; Ferreira, Renata C; Briones, Marcelo R S

2016-06-01

Here we propose a new approach to modeling gene expression based on the theory of random dynamical systems (RDS) that provides a general coupling prescription between the nodes of any given regulatory network given the dynamics of each node is modeled by a RDS. The main virtues of this approach are the following: (i) it provides a natural way to obtain arbitrarily large networks by coupling together simple basic pieces, thus revealing the modularity of regulatory networks; (ii) the assumptions about the stochastic processes used in the modeling are fairly general, in the sense that the only requirement is stationarity; (iii) there is a well developed mathematical theory, which is a blend of smooth dynamical systems theory, ergodic theory and stochastic analysis that allows one to extract relevant dynamical and statistical information without solving the system; (iv) one may obtain the classical rate equations form the corresponding stochastic version by averaging the dynamic random variables (small noise limit). It is important to emphasize that unlike the deterministic case, where coupling two equations is a trivial matter, coupling two RDS is non-trivial, specially in our case, where the coupling is performed between a state variable of one gene and the switching stochastic process of another gene and, hence, it is not a priori true that the resulting coupled system will satisfy the definition of a random dynamical system. We shall provide the necessary arguments that ensure that our coupling prescription does indeed furnish a coupled regulatory network of random dynamical systems. Finally, the fact that classical rate equations are the small noise limit of our stochastic model ensures that any validation or prediction made on the basis of the classical theory is also a validation or prediction of our model. We illustrate our framework with some simple examples of single-gene system and network motifs. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

Modelling the impact of interventions on the dynamics in village poultry systems

NARCIS (Netherlands)

Udo, H.M.J.; Asgedom, A.H.; Viets, T.C.

2006-01-01

There are many technical possibilities to improve free-range and backyard poultry keeping. Rural households, however, are not adopting these technologies widely. This paper presents a model approach for ex ante evaluation of interventions in village poultry systems. The dynamic deterministic

Dynamic simulation of LMFBR systems

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Agrawal, A.K.; Khatib-Rahbar, M.

1980-01-01

This review article focuses on the dynamic analysis of liquid-metal-cooled fast breeder reactor systems in the context of protected transients. Following a brief discussion on various design and simulation approaches, a critical review of various models for in-reactor components, intermediate heat exchangers, heat transport systems and the steam generating system is presented. A brief discussion on choice of fuels as well as core and blanket system designs is also included. Numerical considerations for obtaining system-wide steady-state and transient solutions are discussed, and examples of various system transients are presented. Another area of major interest is verification of phenomenological models. Various steps involved in the code and model verification are briefly outlined. The review concludes by posing some further areas of interest in fast reactor dynamics and safety. (author)

Dynamic Model and Control of a Photovoltaic Generation System using Energetic Macroscopic Representation

Science.gov (United States)

Solano, Javier; Duarte, José; Vargas, Erwin; Cabrera, Jhon; Jácome, Andrés; Botero, Mónica; Rey, Juan

2016-10-01

This paper addresses the Energetic Macroscopic Representation EMR, the modelling and the control of photovoltaic panel PVP generation systems for simulation purposes. The model of the PVP considers the variations on irradiance and temperature. A maximum power point tracking MPPT algorithm is considered to control the power converter. A novel EMR is proposed to consider the dynamic model of the PVP with variations in the irradiance and the temperature. The EMR is evaluated through simulations of a PVP generation system.

Modelling and simulation of a dynamical system with the Atangana-Baleanu fractional derivative

Science.gov (United States)

Owolabi, Kolade M.

2018-01-01

In this paper, we model an ecological system consisting of a predator and two preys with the newly derived two-step fractional Adams-Bashforth method via the Atangana-Baleanu derivative in the Caputo sense. We analyze the dynamical system for correct choice of parameter values that are biologically meaningful. The local analysis of the main model is based on the application of qualitative theory for ordinary differential equations. By using the fixed point theorem idea, we establish the existence and uniqueness of the solutions. Convergence results of the new scheme are verified in both space and time. Dynamical wave phenomena of solutions are verified via some numerical results obtained for different values of the fractional index, which have some interesting ecological implications.

Modelling system dynamics and phytoplankton diversity at Ranchi lake using the carbon and nutrient mass balance equations.

Science.gov (United States)

Mukherjee, B; Nivedita, M; Mukherjee, D

2014-05-01

Modelling system dynamics in a hyper-eutrophic lake is quite complex especially with a constant influx of detergents and sewage material which continually changes the state variables and interferes with the assessment of the chemical rhythm occurring in polluted conditions as compared to unpolluted systems. In this paper, a carbon and nutrient mass balance model for predicting system dynamics in a complex environment was studied. Studies were conducted at Ranchi lake to understand the altered environmental dynamics in hyper-eutrophic conditions, and its impact on the plankton community. The lake was monitored regularly for five years (2007 - 2011) and the data collected on the carbon flux, nitrates, phosphates and silicates was used to design a mass balance model for evaluating and predicting the system. The model was then used to correlate the chemical rhythm with that of the phytoplankton dynamics and diversity. Nitrates and phosphates were not limiting (mean nitrate and phosphate concentrations were 1.74 and 0.83 mgl⁻¹ respectively). Free carbon dioxide was found to control the system and, interacting with other parameters determined the diversity and dynamics of the plankton community. N/P ratio determined which group of phytoplankton dominated the community, above 5 it favoured the growth of chlorophyceae while below 5 cyanobacteria dominates. TOC/TIC ratio determined the abundance. The overall system was controlled by the availability of free carbon dioxide which served as a limiting factor.

Dynamic modeling method for infrared smoke based on enhanced discrete phase model

Science.gov (United States)

Zhang, Zhendong; Yang, Chunling; Zhang, Yan; Zhu, Hongbo

2018-03-01

The dynamic modeling of infrared (IR) smoke plays an important role in IR scene simulation systems and its accuracy directly influences the system veracity. However, current IR smoke models cannot provide high veracity, because certain physical characteristics are frequently ignored in fluid simulation; simplifying the discrete phase as a continuous phase and ignoring the IR decoy missile-body spinning. To address this defect, this paper proposes a dynamic modeling method for IR smoke, based on an enhanced discrete phase model (DPM). A mathematical simulation model based on an enhanced DPM is built and a dynamic computing fluid mesh is generated. The dynamic model of IR smoke is then established using an extended equivalent-blackbody-molecule model. Experiments demonstrate that this model realizes a dynamic method for modeling IR smoke with higher veracity.

Dynamic modeling system for the transfer of radioactivity in terrestrial food chains

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Simmonds, J.R.; Linsley, G.S.

1981-01-01

A dynamic modeling system is described for the transfer of radionuclides in terrestrial food chains. The main features of the system are its ability to predict the time dependence of the major transfer processes and its flexibility and applicability to a range of contamination scenarios. The modeling system is regarded as a basic framework on which more realistic models can be based, given the availability of reliable environmental transfer data. An example of such a development is included for 90 Sr in the pasture-cow-milk pathway. The model predicts annual average concentrations of 90 Sr in milk caused by fallout in the United Kingdom to within 15% of measured values for over most of the 20-y period for which data exist. It makes possible the evaluation of the time dependence of the contributions of various transfer processes. Following acute releases to the atmosphere or releases in any other contamination scenario where direct deposition is absent, certain pathways often not considered in food-chain models, such as the external contamination of plants caused by resuspension processes or the ingestion of contaminants together with soil by grazing animals, are shown to be potentially important in the transfer of activity to man. The main application of dynamic food-chain models is the prediction of the consequences of accidental releases to the terrestrial environment. The predictions can be used in planning countermeasures and in assessing the health, economic, and social impacts of accidental release

Dynamic modelling of nitrous oxide emissions from three Swedish sludge liquor treatment systems

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Lindblom, E.; Arnell, M.; Flores-Alsina, X.

2016-01-01

The objective of this paper is to model the dynamics and validate the results of nitrous oxide (N2O)emissions from three Swedish nitrifying/denitrifying, nitritation and anammox systems treating real anaerobic digester sludge liquor. The Activated Sludge Model No. 1 is extended to describe N2O...

Dynamic wind turbine models in power system simulation tool DIgSILENT

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hansen, A.D.; Iov, F.; Soerensen, Poul.; Cutululis, N.; Jauch, C.; Blaabjerg, F.

2007-08-15

This report presents a collection of models and control strategies developed and implemented in the power system simulation tool PowerFactory DIgSILENT for different wind turbine concepts. It is the second edition of Risoe-R-1400(EN) and it gathers and describes a whole wind turbine model database built-op and developed during several national research projects, carried out at Risoe DTU National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy and Aalborg University, in the period 2001-2007. The overall objective of these projects was to create a wind turbine model database able to support the analysis of the interaction between the mechanical structure of the wind turbine and the electrical grid during different operational modes. The report provides thus a description of the wind turbines modelling, both at a component level and at a system level. The report contains both the description of DIgSILENT built-in models for the electrical components of a grid connected wind turbine (e.g. induction generators, power converters, transformers) and the models developed by the user, in the dynamic simulation language DSL of DIgSILENT, for the non-electrical components of the wind turbine (wind model, aerodynamic model, mechanical model). The initialisation issues on the wind turbine models into the power system simulation are also presented. The main attention in the report is drawn to the modelling at the system level of the following wind turbine concepts: (1) Fixed speed active stall wind turbine concept (2) Variable speed doubly-fed induction generator wind turbine concept (3) Variable speed multi-pole permanent magnet synchronous generator wind turbine concept These wind turbine concept models can be used and even extended for the study of different aspects, e.g. the assessment of power quality, control strategies, connection of the wind turbine at different types of grid and storage systems. Different control strategies have been developed and implemented for these wind turbine

System dynamics model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity and its application

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Li Cheng

2010-06-01

Full Text Available A model of Suzhou water resources carrying capacity (WRCC was set up using the method of system dynamics (SD. In the model, three different water resources utilization programs were adopted: (1 continuity of existing water utilization, (2 water conservation/saving, and (3 water exploitation. The dynamic variation of the Suzhou WRCC was simulated with the supply-decided principle for the time period of 2001 to 2030, and the results were characterized based on socio-economic factors. The corresponding Suzhou WRCC values for several target years were calculated by the model. Based on these results, proper ways to improve the Suzhou WRCC are proposed. The model also produced an optimized plan, which can provide a scientific basis for the sustainable utilization of Suzhou water resources and for the coordinated development of the society, economy, and water resources.

Endangered Butterflies as a Model System for Managing Source Sink Dynamics on Department of Defense Lands

Science.gov (United States)

used three species of endangered butterflies as a model system to rigorously investigate the source-sink dynamics of species being managed on military...lands. Butterflies have numerous advantages as models for source-sink dynamics , including rapid generation times and relatively limited dispersal, but...they are subject to the same processes that determine source-sink dynamics of longer-lived, more vagile taxa.1.2 Technical Approach: For two of our

Parameter and Structure Inference for Nonlinear Dynamical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Morris, Robin D.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Millonas, Mark

2006-01-01

A great many systems can be modeled in the non-linear dynamical systems framework, as x = f(x) + xi(t), where f() is the potential function for the system, and xi is the excitation noise. Modeling the potential using a set of basis functions, we derive the posterior for the basis coefficients. A more challenging problem is to determine the set of basis functions that are required to model a particular system. We show that using the Bayesian Information Criteria (BIC) to rank models, and the beam search technique, that we can accurately determine the structure of simple non-linear dynamical system models, and the structure of the coupling between non-linear dynamical systems where the individual systems are known. This last case has important ecological applications.

Modelling dynamic liquid-gas systems: Extensions to the volume-of-fluid solver

CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

Heyns, Johan A

2013-06-01

Full Text Available This study presents the extension of the volume-of-fluid solver, interFoam, for improved accuracy and efficiency when modelling dynamic liquid-gas systems. Examples of these include the transportation of liquids, such as in the case of fuel carried...

Modeling energy market dynamics using discrete event system simulation

International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

Gutierrez-Alcaraz, G.; Sheble, G.B.

2009-01-01

This paper proposes the use of Discrete Event System Simulation to study the interactions among fuel and electricity markets and consumers, and the decision-making processes of fuel companies (FUELCOs), generation companies (GENCOs), and consumers in a simple artificial energy market. In reality, since markets can reach a stable equilibrium or fail, it is important to observe how they behave in a dynamic framework. We consider a Nash-Cournot model in which marketers are depicted as Nash-Cournot players that determine supply to meet end-use consumption. Detailed engineering considerations such as transportation network flows are omitted, because the focus is upon the selection and use of appropriate market models to provide answers to policy questions. (author)

A System Dynamics Model for Planning Cardiovascular Disease Interventions

Science.gov (United States)

Homer, Jack; Evans, Elizabeth; Zielinski, Ann

2010-01-01

Planning programs for the prevention and treatment of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is a challenge to every community that wants to make the best use of its limited resources. Selecting programs that provide the greatest impact is difficult because of the complex set of causal pathways and delays that link risk factors to CVD. We describe a system dynamics simulation model developed for a county health department that incorporates and tracks the effects of those risk factors over time on both first-time and recurrent events. We also describe how the model was used to evaluate the potential impacts of various intervention strategies for reducing the county's CVD burden and present the results of those policy tests. PMID:20167899

Update on Small Modular Reactors Dynamics System Modeling Tool -- Molten Salt Cooled Architecture

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Hale, Richard Edward [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Cetiner, Sacit M. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Fugate, David L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Qualls, A L. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Borum, Robert C. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Chaleff, Ethan S. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Rogerson, Doug W. [Oak Ridge National Lab. (ORNL), Oak Ridge, TN (United States); Batteh, John J. [Modelon Corporation (Sweden); Tiller, Michael M. [Xogeny Corporation, Canton, MI (United States)

2014-08-01

The Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Dynamic System Modeling Tool project is in the third year of development. The project is designed to support collaborative modeling and study of various advanced SMR (non-light water cooled) concepts, including the use of multiple coupled reactors at a single site. The objective of the project is to provide a common simulation environment and baseline modeling resources to facilitate rapid development of dynamic advanced reactor SMR models, ensure consistency among research products within the Instrumentation, Controls, and Human-Machine Interface (ICHMI) technical area, and leverage cross-cutting capabilities while minimizing duplication of effort. The combined simulation environment and suite of models are identified as the Modular Dynamic SIMulation (MoDSIM) tool. The critical elements of this effort include (1) defining a standardized, common simulation environment that can be applied throughout the program, (2) developing a library of baseline component modules that can be assembled into full plant models using existing geometry and thermal-hydraulic data, (3) defining modeling conventions for interconnecting component models, and (4) establishing user interfaces and support tools to facilitate simulation development (i.e., configuration and parameterization), execution, and results display and capture.

Predicting critical transitions in dynamical systems from time series using nonstationary probability density modeling.

Science.gov (United States)

Kwasniok, Frank

2013-11-01

A time series analysis method for predicting the probability density of a dynamical system is proposed. A nonstationary parametric model of the probability density is estimated from data within a maximum likelihood framework and then extrapolated to forecast the future probability density and explore the system for critical transitions or tipping points. A full systematic account of parameter uncertainty is taken. The technique is generic, independent of the underlying dynamics of the system. The method is verified on simulated data and then applied to prediction of Arctic sea-ice extent.

Learning How to Construct Models of Dynamic Systems: An Initial Evaluation of the Dragoon Intelligent Tutoring System

Science.gov (United States)

VanLehn, Kurt; Wetzel, Jon; Grover, Sachin; van de Sande, Brett

2017-01-01

Constructing models of dynamic systems is an important skill in both mathematics and science instruction. However, it has proved difficult to teach. Dragoon is an intelligent tutoring system intended to quickly and effectively teach this important skill. This paper describes Dragoon and an evaluation of it. The evaluation randomly assigned…

DYNAMICS OF FINANCIAL SYSTEM: A SYSTEM DYNAMICS APPROACH

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Girish K Nair

2013-01-01

Full Text Available There are several ratios which define the financial health of an organization but the importance of Net cash flow, Gross income, Net income, Pending bills, Receivable bills, Debt, and Book value can never be undermined as they give the exact picture of the financial condition. While there are several approaches to study the dynamics of these variables, system dynamics based modelling and simulation is one of the modern techniques. The paper explores this method to simulate the before mentioned parameters during production capacity expansion in an electronic industry. Debt and Book value have shown a non-linear pattern of variation which is discussed. The model can be used by the financial experts as a decision support tool in arriving at conclusions in connection to the expansion plans of the organization.

Dynamic Modeling and Simulation of Deep Geothermal Electric Submersible Pumping Systems

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Julian Kullick

2017-10-01

Full Text Available Deep geothermal energy systems employ electric submersible pumps (ESPs in order to lift geothermal fluid from the production well to the surface. However, rough downhole conditions and high flow rates impose heavy strain on the components, leading to frequent failures of the pump system. As downhole sensor data is limited and often unrealible, a detailed and dynamical model system will serve as basis for deeper understanding and analysis of the overall system behavior. Furthermore, it allows to design model-based condition monitoring and fault detection systems, and to improve controls leading to a more robust and efficient operation. In this paper, a detailed state-space model of the complete ESP system is derived, covering the electrical, mechanical and hydraulic subsystems. Based on the derived model, the start-up phase of an exemplary yet realistic ESP system in the Megawatt range—located at a setting depth of 950 m and producing geothermal fluid of 140 ∘ C temperature at a rate of 0.145 m 3 s − 1 —is simulated in MATLAB/Simulink. The simulation results show that the system reaches a stable operating point with realistic values. Furthermore, the effect of self-excitation between the filter capacitor and the motor inductor can clearly be observed. A full set of parameters is provided, allowing for direct model implementation and reproduction of the presented results.

Transcribing the balanced scorecard into system dynamics

DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

Nielsen, Steen; Nielsen, Erland Hejn

2013-01-01

The purpose of this paper is to show how a System Dynamics Modelling approach can be integrated into the Balanced Scorecard (BSC) for a case company with special focus on the handling of causality in a dynamic perspective. The BSC model includes five perspectives and a number of financial and non...... the cause-and-effect relationships of an integrated BSC model. Including dynamic aspects of BSCs into the discussion is only in its infancy, so the aim of our work is also to contribute to both scholars’ and practitioners’ general understanding of how such delayed dynamic effects propagate through system...

System Dynamics Modelling of the Power Sector in Mauritius

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Deenapanray Prakash N. K.

2015-12-01

Full Text Available A system dynamics model has been developed for the power sector of Mauritius, which captures a range of complex interactions between the economic, social and environmental aspects of the national economy, with deeper emphasis on the role of energy in these interactions. The model has been validated by replicating the historical trends of key development indicators, and its results were compared to the projections of the national utility company. The validation process shows that the model provides a faithful representation of the actual electricity sector of Mauritius, and can be easily adapted to the use of different assumptions. This paper describes the main characteristics of the model and its results as compared to electricity demand projections carried out by the Central Electricity Board to 2022. The results suggest that further analysis could be done to test alternative low carbon investment scenarios.

Dynamism in Electronic Performance Support Systems.

Science.gov (United States)

Laffey, James

1995-01-01

Describes a model for dynamic electronic performance support systems based on NNAble, a system developed by the training group at Apple Computer. Principles for designing dynamic performance support are discussed, including a systems approach, performer-centered design, awareness of situated cognition, organizational memory, and technology use.…

Probabilistic risk assessment modeling of digital instrumentation and control systems using two dynamic methodologies

Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

Aldemir, T., E-mail: aldemir.1@osu.ed [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Guarro, S. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Mandelli, D. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Kirschenbaum, J. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Mangan, L.A. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Bucci, P. [Ohio State University, Department of Computer Science and Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Yau, M. [ASCA, Inc., 1720 S. Catalina Avenue, Suite 220, Redondo Beach, CA 90277-5501 (United States); Ekici, E. [Ohio State University, Department of Electrical and Computer Engineering, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Miller, D.W.; Sun, X. [Ohio State University, Nuclear Engineering Program, Columbus, OH 43210 (United States); Arndt, S.A. [U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission, Washington, DC 20555-0001 (United States)

2010-10-15

The Markov/cell-to-cell mapping technique (CCMT) and the dynamic flowgraph methodology (DFM) are two system logic modeling methodologies that have been proposed to address the dynamic characteristics of digital instrumentation and control (I and C) systems and provide risk-analytical capabilities that supplement those provided by traditional probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) techniques for nuclear power plants. Both methodologies utilize a discrete state, multi-valued logic representation of the digital I and C system. For probabilistic quantification purposes, both techniques require the estimation of the probabilities of basic system failure modes, including digital I and C software failure modes, that appear in the prime implicants identified as contributors to a given system event of interest. As in any other system modeling process, the accuracy and predictive value of the models produced by the two techniques, depend not only on the intrinsic features of the modeling paradigm, but also and to a considerable extent on information and knowledge available to the analyst, concerning the system behavior and operation rules under normal and off-nominal conditions, and the associated controlled/monitored process dynamics. The application of the two methodologies is illustrated using a digital feedwater control system (DFWCS) similar to that of an operating pressurized water reactor. This application was carried out to demonstrate how the use of either technique, or both, can facilitate the updating of an existing nuclear power plant PRA model following an upgrade of the instrumentation and control system from analog to digital. Because of scope limitations, the focus of the demonstration of the methodologies was intentionally limited to aspects of digital I and C system behavior for which probabilistic data was on hand or could be generated within the existing project bounds of time and resources. The data used in the probabilistic quantification portion of the

A DYNAMICAL SYSTEM APPROACH IN MODELING TECHNOLOGY TRANSFER

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Hennie Husniah

2016-05-01

Full Text Available In this paper we discuss a mathematical model of two parties technology transfer from a leader to a follower. The model is reconstructed via dynamical system approach from a known standard Raz and Assa model and we found some important conclusion which have not been discussed in the original model. The model assumes that in the absence of technology transfer from a leader to a follower, both the leader and the follower have a capability to grow independently with a known upper limit of the development. We obtain a rich mathematical structure of the steady state solution of the model. We discuss a special situation in which the upper limit of the technological development of the follower is higher than that of the leader, but the leader has started earlier than the follower in implementing the technology. In this case we show a paradox stating that the follower is unable to reach its original upper limit of the technological development could appear whenever the transfer rate is sufficiently high.  We propose a new model to increase realism so that any technological transfer rate could only has a positive effect in accelerating the rate of growth of the follower in reaching its original upper limit of the development.

On Rank Driven Dynamical Systems

Science.gov (United States)

Veerman, J. J. P.; Prieto, F. J.

2014-08-01

We investigate a class of models related to the Bak-Sneppen (BS) model, initially proposed to study evolution. The BS model is extremely simple and yet captures some forms of "complex behavior" such as self-organized criticality that is often observed in physical and biological systems. In this model, random fitnesses in are associated to agents located at the vertices of a graph . Their fitnesses are ranked from worst (0) to best (1). At every time-step the agent with the worst fitness and some others with a priori given rank probabilities are replaced by new agents with random fitnesses. We consider two cases: The exogenous case where the new fitnesses are taken from an a priori fixed distribution, and the endogenous case where the new fitnesses are taken from the current distribution as it evolves. We approximate the dynamics by making a simplifying independence assumption. We use Order Statistics and Dynamical Systems to define a rank-driven dynamical system that approximates the evolution of the distribution of the fitnesses in these rank-driven models, as well as in the BS model. For this simplified model we can find the limiting marginal distribution as a function of the initial conditions. Agreement with experimental results of the BS model is excellent.

Adaptation Decision Support: An Application of System Dynamics Modeling in Coastal Communities

Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

Daniel Lane; Shima Beigzadeh; Richard Moll

2017-01-01

This research develops and applies a system dynamics (SD) model for the strategic evaluation of environmental adaptation options for coastal communities.The article defines and estimates asset-based measures for community vulnerability,resilience,and adaptive capacity with respect to the environmental,economic,social,and cultural pillars of the coastal community under threat.The SD model simulates the annual multidimensional dynamic impacts of severe coastal storms and storm surges on the community pillars under alternative adaptation strategies.The calculation of the quantitative measures provides valuable information for decision makers for evaluating the alternative strategies.The adaptation strategies are designed model results illustrated for the specific context of the coastal community of Charlottetown,Prince Edward Island,Canada.The dynamic trend of the measures and model sensitivity analyses for Charlottetown-facing increased frequency of severe storms,storm surges,and sea-level rise-provide impetus for enhanced community strategic planning for the changing coastal environment.This research is presented as part of the International Community-University Research Alliance C-Change project "Managing Adaptation to Environmental Change in Coastal Communities:Canada and the Caribbean" sponsored by the Social Science and Humanities Research Council of Canada and the International Development Resource Centre.

Two Monthly Continuous Dynamic Model Based on Nash Bargaining Theory for Conflict Resolution in Reservoir System.

Science.gov (United States)

Homayounfar, Mehran; Zomorodian, Mehdi; Martinez, Christopher J; Lai, Sai Hin

2015-01-01

So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i) having a discrete nature; and (ii) working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance) of the state variable (water level in the reservoir) is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP), and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG). By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in water allocation

Two Monthly Continuous Dynamic Model Based on Nash Bargaining Theory for Conflict Resolution in Reservoir System.

Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

Mehran Homayounfar

Full Text Available So far many optimization models based on Nash Bargaining Theory associated with reservoir operation have been developed. Most of them have aimed to provide practical and efficient solutions for water allocation in order to alleviate conflicts among water users. These models can be discussed from two viewpoints: (i having a discrete nature; and (ii working on an annual basis. Although discrete dynamic game models provide appropriate reservoir operator policies, their discretization of variables increases the run time and causes dimensionality problems. In this study, two monthly based non-discrete optimization models based on the Nash Bargaining Solution are developed for a reservoir system. In the first model, based on constrained state formulation, the first and second moments (mean and variance of the state variable (water level in the reservoir is calculated. Using moment equations as the constraint, the long-term utility of the reservoir manager and water users are optimized. The second model is a dynamic approach structured based on continuous state Markov decision models. The corresponding solution based on the collocation method is structured for a reservoir system. In this model, the reward function is defined based on the Nash Bargaining Solution. Indeed, it is used to yield equilibrium in every proper sub-game, thereby satisfying the Markov perfect equilibrium. Both approaches are applicable for water allocation in arid and semi-arid regions. A case study was carried out at the Zayandeh-Rud river basin located in central Iran to identify the effectiveness of the presented methods. The results are compared with the results of an annual form of dynamic game, a classical stochastic dynamic programming model (e.g. Bayesian Stochastic Dynamic Programming model, BSDP, and a discrete stochastic dynamic game model (PSDNG. By comparing the results of alternative methods, it is shown that both models are capable of tackling conflict issues in