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Sample records for sylvatic epidemic typhus

  1. Epidemic typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bechah, Yassina; Capo, Christian; Mege, Jean-Louis; Raoult, Didier

    2008-07-01

    Epidemic typhus is transmitted to human beings by the body louse Pediculus humanus corporis. The disease is still considered a major threat by public-health authorities, despite the efficacy of antibiotics, because poor sanitary conditions are conducive to louse proliferation. Until recently, Rickettsia prowazekii, the causal agent, was thought to be confined to human beings and their body lice. Since 1975, R prowazekii infection in human beings has been related to contact with the flying squirrel Glaucomys volans in the USA. Moreover, Brill-Zinsser disease, a relapsed form of epidemic typhus that appears as sporadic cases many years after the initial infection, is unrelated to louse infestation. Stress or a waning immune system are likely to reactivate this earlier persistent infection, which could be the source of new epidemics when conditions facilitate louse infestation. Finally, R prowazekii is a potential category B bioterrorism agent, because it is stable in dried louse faeces and can be transmitted through aerosols. An increased understanding of the pathogenesis of epidemic typhus may be useful for protection against this bacterial threat.

  2. Investigation of Sylvatic Typhus at a Wilderness Camp

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2009-06-30

    In this podcast, Dr. Greg Dasch discusses an outbreak of four cases of sylvatic typhus that occurred at a wilderness camp in Pennsylvania. Sylvatic typhus is very rare in the United States, with only 41 cases since it was discovered in the United States in 1975. Lab work at CDC and the discovery that all four camp counselors who became ill had slept in the same bunk at the camp between 2004 and 2006 ultimately led to confirmation that flying squirrels living in the wall of the cabin were to blame for the illnesses.  Created: 6/30/2009 by Emerging Infectious Diseases.   Date Released: 6/30/2009.

  3. Reemerging threat of epidemic typhus in Algeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mokrani, K; Fournier, P E; Dalichaouche, M; Tebbal, S; Aouati, A; Raoult, D

    2004-08-01

    We report a case of epidemic typhus in a patient from the Batna region of Algeria, who presented with generalized febrile exanthema. The clinical diagnosis was confirmed by serological cross-adsorption followed by Western blotting. Our report emphasizes the threat of epidemic typhus in the highlands of Algeria.

  4. Typhus

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Headache Joint and muscle pain Nausea and vomiting Symptoms of epidemic typhus may include: High fever, chills Confusion, decreased alertness, delirium Cough Severe muscle and joint pain Lights that ...

  5. Association of Drought with Typhus Epidemics in Central Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Acuna-Soto, R.; Stahle, D.; Villanueva Diaz, J.; Therrell, M.

    2007-05-01

    Typhus is an acute infectious disease caused by the bacteria Rickettsia prowazekii, which is transmitted among humans by the body lice (Pediculus humanus corporis). The disease is highly contagious and transmission is favored in populations living in crowded conditions. Under these circumstances, typhus transmission is facilitated by factors that favor the colonization and proliferation of body lice such as absence of personal hygiene and wearing the same clothes for long periods of time. Historically, periods of war and famine were associated with devastating epidemics with high mortality rates in many parts of the world. Central Mexico has a long record of typhus epidemics. In this region, at > 2000 meters above sea level, the disease was endemic and occurred with a seasonal pattern in winter, with occasional large epidemics. Recently, we completed a chronology of epidemics in Mexico. A total of 22 well-defined major typhus epidemics were identified between 1650 and 1920. All of them caused periods of increased mortality that lasted 2 - 4 years (more than one standard deviation from the previous ten year period). The record of typhus epidemics was evaluated against the tree-ring record of Cuauhtmoc La Fragua, Puebla. This chronology, based on Douglas fir, has demonstrated to be a faithful record of precipitation in central Mexico. The results indicate that a statistically significant drought (t test, p war. This indicates that drought alone was capable of inducing the social conditions for increased transmission of typhus in pre-industrial central Mexico.

  6. Autochthonous epidemic typhus associated with Bartonella quintana bacteremia in a homeless person.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badiaga, Sékéné; Brouqui, Philippe; Raoult, Didier

    2005-05-01

    Trench fever, a louse-borne disease caused by Bartonella quintana, is reemerging in homeless persons. Epidemic typhus is another life-threatening louse-borne disease caused by Rickettsia prowazekii and known to occur in conditions of war, famine, refugee camps, cold weather, poverty, or lapses in public health. We report the first case of seroconversion to R. prowazekii in a homeless person of Marseilles, France. This was associated with B. quintana bacteremia. Although no outbreaks of typhus have been notified yet in the homeless population, this disease is likely to reemerge in such situation.

  7. [Analysis of epidemic features of scrub typhus between year 2006 and 2010 in Shandong province, China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Lei; Li, Zhong; Wang, Xian-jun; Ding, Shu-jun; Zhang, Meng; Zhao, Zhong-tang

    2012-04-01

    To explore the epidemic features of scrub typhus between year 2006 and 2010 in Shandong Province. Based on the data collected through Diseases Reporting Information System between year 2006 and 2010 in Shandong province, 1291 cases of scrub typhus were selected. The study described the population distribution features of the scrub typhus patients, and explored the temporal and spatial distribution features of the disease by applying the methods of spatial thematic mapping, inverse distance weighted, spatial autocorrelation analysis, spatial clustering analysis, temporal clustering analysis and spatial variation analysis in temporal trends based on Geographic Information software (ArcGIS 9.3) and Spatial Clustering Software (SatScan 7.0). The onset age of the 1291 patients ranged between 1 and 92 years old.639 out of 1291 patients were over 55 years old, accounting for 49.5%.640 patients were male and the other 651 patients were female, occupying 49.6% and 50.4% respectively. The gender ratio was 1:1.02. Patients were found in farmers, workers, students and preschool children. However, most of the cases were farmers, up to 84.8% (1095/1291). Global Moran's I index was 0.324 (P features of the two clustering areas were inland low hills area and coastal hills area. The highest annual growth rate of the disease was 45.04%, found in the area centered Linyi and Mengyin counties, with the radiation radius at 45.82 km. The RR value was 3.68 (P < 0.01). The majority of the scrub typhus patients were middle-aged and elderly farmers. The epidemic peak was between the last 10 days of September and the first 10 days of November. A positive spatial correlation of the disease was found; and most cases clustered in inland low hills area and costal hills area; especially the area around Linyi and Mengyin, with the highest annual growth rates of the disease.

  8. Scrub typhus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy G Rapsang

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus is an acute febrile illness caused by orientia tsutsugamushi, transmitted to humans by the bite of the larva of trombiculid mites. It causes a disseminated vasculitic and perivascular inflammatory lesions resulting in significant vascular leakage and end-organ injury. It affects people of all ages and even though scrub typhus in pregnancy is uncommon, it is associated with increased foetal loss, preterm delivery, and small for gestational age infants. After an incubation period of 6-21 days, onset is characterized by fever, headache, myalgia, cough, and gastrointestinal symptoms. A primary papular lesion which later crusts to form a flat black eschar, may be present. If untreated, serious complications may occur involving various organs. Laboratory studies usually reveal leukopenia, thrombocytopenia, deranged hepatic and renal function, proteinuria and reticulonodular infiltrate. Owing to the potential for severe complications, diagnosis, and decision to initiate treatment should be based on clinical suspicion and confirmed by serologic tests. A therapeutic trial of tetracycline or chloramphenicol is indicated in patients in whom the diagnosis of scrub typhus is suspected. The recommended treatment regimen for scrub typhus is doxycycline. Alternative regimens include tetracycline, chloramphenicol, azithromycin, ciprofloxacin, rifampicin, and roxithromycin. Treatment of pregnant women with azithromycin was successfully done without relapse and with favorable pregnancy outcomes. Hence, early diagnosis and treatment are essential in order to reduce the mortality and the complications associated with the disease. We searched the English-language literature for reports of scrub typhus in children, pregnant women, and non-pregnant patients with scrub typhus, using the MEDLINE/PubMed database, which includes citations from 1945 to the present time. We used the search terms ′scrub typhus′, ′scrub typhus′ and ′pregnancy′,

  9. Recent findings regarding maintenance of enzootic variants of Yersinia pestis in sylvatic reservoirs and their significance in the evolution of epidemic plague.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bearden, Scott W; Brubaker, Robert R

    2010-01-01

    Despite the widespread presence of bubonic plague in sylvatic reservoirs throughout the world, the causative agent (Yersinia pestis) evolved in its present form within the last 20,000 years from enteropathogenic Yersinia pseudotuberculosis. Comparison of the genomes from the two species revealed that Y. pestis possesses only a few unique plasmid-encoded genes that contribute to acute disease, whereas this organism has lost about 13% of the chromosomal genes that remain active in Y. pseudotuberculosis. These losses reflect readily detectable additions, deletions, transpositions, inversions, and acquisition of about 70 insertion sequence (IS) inserts, none of which are likely to promote increased virulence. In contrast, major enzymes of intermediary metabolism, including glucose 6-phosphate dehydrogenase (Zwf ) and aspartase, are present but not catalytically functional due to the presence of missense mutations. The latter are generally not detectable by the technology of bioinformatics and, in the case of Y. pestis, result in radical changes in the metabolic flow of carbon. As an important consequence, plague bacilli exhibit a stringent low-calcium response characterized by conversion of L-glutamate (and metabolically related amino acids) to L-aspartate with secretion of the latter into supernatant fluid at 37 degrees C in culture media containing Na(+) but lacking added Ca(2+). This phenomenon also occurs in vivo and likely adversely affects the bioenergetics of host amino acid pools. Curiously, aspartase is functional in all tested enzootic (pestoides) strains of Y. pestis. These isolates are typically restricted to the ancient plague reservoirs of Central Asia and Africa and are fully virulent in members of the rodent Superfamily Muroidea but avirulent in guinea pigs and man. The implications of these findings for the distribution and ecology of Y. pestis could be significant.

  10. Pancreatitis in scrub typhus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alok Bhatt

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus is a rickettsial infection prevalent in most parts of India. Acute pancreatitis with pseudocyst formation is a rare complication of this condition. This paper reports acute renal failure, pancreatitis and pseudocyst formation in a 48-year-old female with scrub typhus. Ultrasonography of the abdomen revealed a bulky pancreas with fluid seen along the body of the pancreas in the lesser sac. The infection was successfully treated with doxycycline and supportive treatment. Pancreatitis was managed conservatively. This case report highlights the importance of identifying and managing uncommon complications of a common tropical disease for optimum outcome.

  11. Typhus in Texas

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2017-07-06

    Dr. Kristy Murray, an associate professor in pediatrics and assistant dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and Texas Children’s Hospital, discusses increased cases of typhus in southern Texas.  Created: 7/6/2017 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 7/6/2017.

  12. Scrub typhus meningitis or meningoencephalitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Dong-Min; Chung, Jong-Hoon; Yun, Na-Ra; Kim, Seok Won; Lee, Jun-Young; Han, Mi Ah; Lee, Yong-Bok

    2013-12-01

    Orientia tsutsugamushi induces vasculitis leading to symptoms of systemic organ invasion including meningitis and meningoencephalitis. We conducted a retrospective case-control study of scrub typhus patients to investigate the clinical and laboratory features of patients with scrub typhus meningitis or meningoencephalitis, and the therapeutic outcomes, and to determine the predictor factors. Cases were 22 patients with scrub typhus meningitis or meningoencephalitis, and controls were 303 patients without meningitis or meningoencephalitis. Multivariate analysis showed that the presence of pneumonitis was associated with the occurrence of scrub typhus meningitis and meningoencephalitis (odds ratio [OR] 8.9; P meningitis or meningoencephalitis still occurred in some cases. Physicians should be aware that meningitis or meningoencephalitis may develop during appropriate drug therapy such as doxycycline. Close observation and great care are essential for patients with risk factors, particularly pneumonitis.

  13. Acute Cholecystitis in Patients with Scrub Typhus

    OpenAIRE

    Lee, Hyun; Ji, Misuk; Hwang, Jeong-Hwan; Lee, Ja-Yeon; Lee, Ju-Hyung; Chung, Kyung Min; Lee, Chang-Seop

    2015-01-01

    Acute cholecystitis is a rare complication of scrub typhus. Although a few such cases have been reported in patients with scrub typhus, the clinical course is not well described. Of 12 patients, acute cholecystitis developed in 66.7% (8/12) of patients older than 60 yr. The scrub typhus group with acute cholecystitis had marginal significant longer hospital stay and higher cost than the group without cholecystitis according to propensity score matching. Scrub typhus should be kept in mind as ...

  14. [Typhus fever morbidity among the military personnel and civilians in the regions around Volga river during World War I].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raĭkova, S V; Zav'ialov, A I

    2013-07-01

    The article is concerned to the materials about epidemiologic situation of typhus fever in the regions around Volga river (Saratovsky, Samarsky and others) during World War I (1914-1918) among the military personnel of the Russian army and among the civilians. The main reasons for spread of infection, ways of the transmission, and also measures for decreasing of level of morbidity on the different stages of evacuation of patients with typhus fever in the safer hospitals are shown. The most important methods of fighting against epidemic of typhus fever were: isolation of patients in separate special hospitals, desincection and disinfection measures in the foci of infection and organization appropriate sanitary conditions for military man in the army and among civilians. Acquired valuable experience of territorial and military doctors during the period of epidemic of typhus fever allowed receiving complex effective antiepidemic measures of fighting and prevention from this disease.

  15. Nursing typhus victims in the Second World War, 1942-1944: a discussion paper.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Jane

    2014-07-01

    This article explores the care British nurses provided to victims of typhus during the Second World War. Typhus is associated with poverty and overcrowding. During wars in the pre-antibiotic era, civilians were particularly susceptible to epidemics, which military governments feared would spread to their troops. This discussion paper draws on archival data from three typhus epidemics in the Second World War to examine the expert work of British nurses in caring for victims during these potential public health disasters. The published sources for the paper include material from nursing and medical journals published between 1940-1947. Archival sources come from the National Archives in Kew, the Wellcome Library and the Army Medical Services Museum, between 1943-1945. Of particular interest is the correspondence with Dame Katharine Jones from nurses on active service overseas. Whilst epidemics of typhus are now rare, nurses in the present day may be required to care for the public in environments of extreme poverty and overcrowding, where life-threatening infectious diseases are prevalent. This article has demonstrated that it is possible for expert and compassionate nursing to alleviate suffering and prevent death, even when medical technologies are unavailable. Expert and compassionate care, adequate nutrition and hydration and attention to hygiene needs are crucial when there are limited pharmacological treatments and medical technologies available to treat infectious diseases. The appreciation of this could have implications for nurses working in current global conflicts. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Scrub typhus, a disease with increasing threat in Guangdong, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu De

    Full Text Available There has been a rapid increase in the number of scrub typhus cases in Guangdong Province, China. For this reason, an epidemiologic study was conducted to understand the characteristics of scrub typhus epidemics in Guangdong. From 2006 to 2013, the incidence of human cases increased from 0.4321 to 3.5917 per 100,000 with a bimodal peak in human cases typically occurring between May and November. To detect the prevalence of Orientia tsutsugamushi among suspected human cases and rodents, we performed ELISA tests of IgM/IgG and nested PCR tests on 59 whole blood samples from the suspected cases and 112 spleen samples from the rodents. Suspected cases tested positive for anti-O. tsutsugamushi IgM and IgG 66.1% (39/59 and 50.8% (30/59 of the time, respectively. Additionally, 20.3% (12/59 of blood samples and 13.4% (15/112 of spleen samples were positive for PCR. Phylogenetic analysis revealed that there were four definable clusters among the 27 nucleotide sequences of the 56-kDa antigen genes: 44.4% Karp (12/27, 25.9% Kato (7/27, 22.2% Gilliam (6/27 and 7.4% TA763 (2/27. We concluded many suspected cases may result in diagnostic errors; therefore, it is necessary to perform laboratory tests on suspected cases in hospitals. The high infection rate of O. tsutsugamushi among the limited rodents tested suggested that further rodent sampling throughout the province is necessary to further define high-risk areas. Furthermore, the multiple co-circulating genotypes of O. tsutsugamushi play a key role in the pervasiveness of scrub typhus in the Guangdong area.

  17. Coincidence between geographical distribution of Leptotrombidium scutellare and scrub typhus incidence in South Korea.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jong Yul Roh

    Full Text Available To clarify the geographical distribution of scrub typhus vectors in Korea, a survey of larval trombiculid mites was conducted from 2005 to 2007 by collecting wild small mammals twice a year (spring and autumn at 24 sites nationwide. A total of 67,325 mites representing 4 genera and 14 species were collected from 783 trapped rodents, corresponding to a chigger index (number of chigger mites per rodent of 86.0. The predominant mite species were Leptotrombidium pallidum (52.6%, Leptotrombiduim scutellare (27.1%, Leptotrombidium palpale (8.2%, Leptotrombidium orientale (5.6%, and Neotrombicula tamiyai (1.7%. However, the proportions of L. scutellare in southern areas, including endemic provinces such as Jeollabuk-Do (34.3%, Jeollanam-Do (49.0%, and Gyeongsangnam-Do (88%, were relatively higher than in central Korean regions where L. pallidum was predominant. In autumn, the ratio of L. scutellare increased to 42% while the ratio of L. pallidum decreased. The geographical distribution map of the L. scutellare chigger index was identical to the incidence pattern of scrub typhus, whereas those of overall mites and L. pallidum showed no relationship with case incidence patterns. Distribution mapping analysis shows an identical geographical distribution of L. scutellare and epidemic incidence of scrub typhus in South Korea. L. pallidum could be another vector at all other parts of the Korean peninsula, including the eastern and northern regions that have a low level of scrub typhus incidence.

  18. [Epidemics and disease during the Revolution Period in Mexico].

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    Sanfilippo-Borrás, José

    2010-01-01

    The health condition in Mexico was bad around de beginning of the revolutionary period. The movement of troops led the development of epidemics like yellow fever, typhus, smallpox, and influenza that were enhance with natural disasters and hunger in whole country, from cost to cost and in the north big cities like Monterrey, Guadalajara and Saltillo. Doctor Liceaga conducted a well planned campaign against yellow fever eradicating water stagnant deposits in order to combat the vector transmission, the Aedes aegypti, mosquito with satisfactory results. The first smallpox epidemic in the XX Century in Mexico was in 1916. The Mexican physicians used the smallpox vaccine against this epidemic. An American physician named Howard Taylor Ricketts arrived to Mexico for studying the typhus transmission. Accidentally he had been infected and finally, he died from typhus. Definitively, the epidemics predominate along de revolutionary period in Mexico.

  19. Tsutsugamushi Disease (Scrub Typhus) Meningoencephalitis in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    of the present time. The magnitude of this problem continues to be underestimated in many endemic areas, especially in India where scrub typhus is fast becoming an important cause of acute meningitis.[2] The disease is transmitted to humans by the bite of the larvae Leptotrombidium mite (chigger).[3] The disease often.

  20. Reemergence of Murine Typhus in the US

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2015-04-21

    Dr. Lucas Blanton discusses the Reemergence of Murine Typhus in Galveston Texas in 2013.  Created: 4/21/2015 by National Center for Emerging and Zoonotic Infectious Diseases (NCEZID).   Date Released: 4/27/2015.

  1. A case of scrub typhus requiring maintenance hemodialysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dae-Yeon Kim

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Renal failure caused by scrub typhus is known to be reversible. In most cases, renal function is almost fully restored after appropriate antibiotic treatment. A 71-year-old man was diagnosed with scrub typhus complicated by renal failure. A renal biopsy revealed histopathologic findings consistent with acute tubulointerstitial nephritis. Renal function did not improve 18 months after discharge and the patient required continuous hemodialysis. Although severe renal failure requiring dialysis is a rare complication of scrub typhus, we describe a case of scrub typhus requiring maintenance hemodialysis. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first such report.

  2. Chest radiographic manifestations of scrub typhus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    KPP Abhilash

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background and Rationale: Respiratory system involvement in scrub typhus is seen in 20–72% of patients. In endemic areas, good understanding and familiarity with the various radiologic findings of scrub typhus are essential in identifying pulmonary complications. Materials and Methods: Patients admitted to a tertiary care center with scrub typhus between October 2012 and September 2013 and had a chest X ray done were included in the analysis. Details and radiographic findings were noted and factors associated with abnormal X-rays were analyzed. Results: The study cohort contained 398 patients. Common presenting complaints included fever (100%, generalized myalgia (83%, headache (65%, dyspnea (54%, cough (24.3%, and altered sensorium (14%. Almost half of the patients (49.4% had normal chest radiographs. Common radiological pulmonary abnormalities included pleural effusion (14.6%, acute respiratory distress syndrome (14%, airspace opacity (10.5%, reticulonodular opacities (10.3%, peribronchial thickening (5.8%, and pulmonary edema (2%. Cardiomegaly was noted in 3.5% of patients. Breathlessness, presence of an eschar, platelet counts of 2 mg/dL had the highest odds of having an abnormal chest radiograph. Patients with an abnormal chest X-ray had a higher requirement of noninvasive ventilation (odds ratio [OR]: 13.98; 95% confidence interval CI: 5.89–33.16, invasive ventilation (OR: 18.07; 95% CI: 6.42–50.88, inotropes (OR: 8.76; 95% CI: 4.35–17.62, higher involvement of other organ systems, longer duration of hospital stay (3.18 ± 3 vs. 7.27 ± 5.58 days; P< 0.001, and higher mortality (OR: 4.63; 95% CI: 1.54–13.85. Conclusion: Almost half of the patients with scrub typhus have abnormal chest radiographs. Chest radiography should be included as part of basic evaluation at presentation in patients with scrub typhus, especially in those with breathlessness, eschar, jaundice, and severe thrombocytopenia.

  3. The epidemic of Athens, 430 - 426 BC | Retief | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... number of scholars who studied the subject, Thucydides' description does not accurately fit any existing disease, but we suggest that analysis of the signs and symptoms, considered in conjunction with significant epidemiological evidence, narrows down the many possibilities to epidemic typhus, plague, arboviral disease ...

  4. Seroprevalence of Scrub Typhus Infection in Arunachal Pradesh, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakharia, Aniruddha; Borkakoty, Biswajyoti; Biswas, Dipankar; Yadav, Kaushal; Mahanta, Jagadish

    2016-10-01

    Scrub typhus is a major reason for febrile illness, caused by a bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi, a rickettsial pathogen. Few outbreaks of scrub typhus have been reported from Arunachal Pradesh in recent past. However, there is lack of seroprevalence data from the region. In this regard, this study was undertaken using archival serum sample available from seven districts of Arunachal Pradesh. This serological study was conducted in Regional Medical Research Center for NE Region, Dibrugarh. Reactivity to IgG class of antibodies against scrub typhus was done using Scrub typhus detect IgG ELISA kit as per manufacturer's protocol. Seroprevalence of scrub typhus in seven districts of Arunachal Pradesh was found to be 40% (120/300). The age-specific scrub typhus seroprevalence rose steadily from 5.6% in children <10 years of age to 61.8% in persons aged ≥40 years (p = 0.0001). Prevalence is lowest in Papumpare (25.9%) and highest in East Siang (72.5%) (p = 0.0001). The seroprevalence in males and females was very similar, however, the female prevalence increases from age group ≥30 years (p = 0.053). Moreover, among the farmers, the seroprevalence is higher (58.3%) (p = 0.0001). As clinical symptoms overlap with other viral/bacterial infections, scrub typhus infection should be considered in differential diagnosis of any acute febrile illness in this part of the country. In view of the high prevalence, empirical therapy of doxycycline/azithromycin may be done in cases of undiagnosed fever. Active surveillance has to be done to understand exact magnitude, epidemiological aspects, and distribution of vector and disease of this reemerging neglected tropical disease.

  5. A comparative hospital-based observational study of mono- and co-infections of malaria, dengue virus and scrub typhus causing acute undifferentiated fever.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmad, S; Dhar, M; Mittal, G; Bhat, N K; Shirazi, N; Kalra, V; Sati, H C; Gupta, V

    2016-04-01

    Positive serology for dengue and/or scrub typhus infection with/without positive malarial smear (designated as mixed or co-infection) is being increasingly observed during epidemics of acute undifferentiated febrile illnesses (AUFIs). We planned to study the clinical and biochemical spectrum of co-infections with Plasmodium sp., dengue virus and scrub typhus and compare these with mono-infection by the same organisms. During the period from December 2012 to December 2013, all cases presenting with AUFIs to a single medical unit of a referral centre in Garhwal region of the north Indian state of Uttarakhand were retrospectively selected and categorised aetiologically as co-infections, malaria, dengue or scrub typhus. The groups thus created were compared in terms of demographic, clinical, biochemical and outcome parameters. The co-infection group (n = 49) was associated with milder clinical manifestations, fewer, milder and non-progressive organ dysfunction, and lesser need for intensive care, mechanical ventilation and dialysis as compared to mono-infections. When co-infections were sub-grouped and compared with the relevant mono-infections, there were differences in certain haematological and biochemical parameters; however, this difference did not translate into differential outcomes. Scrub typhus mono-infection was associated with severe disease in terms of both morbidity and mortality. Malaria, dengue and scrub typhus should be routinely tested in all patients with AUFIs. Co-infections, whether true or due to serological cross-reactivity, appear to be a separate entity so far as presentation and morbidity is concerned. Further insight is needed into the mechanism and identification of the protective infection.

  6. THE ANTIGENIC RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN PROTEUS X-19 AND TYPHUS RICKETTSIA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castaneda, M. Ruiz

    1934-01-01

    A soluble specific substance was isolated from Mexican typhus Rickettsia which gave, with Proteus X-19 antiserum and typhus human serum, the same precipitation reactions as the polysaccharides extracted from B. proteus OX-19. The soluble specific substance extracted from Rickettsia and Proteus OX-19 is likely to be of a polysaccharide nature owing to the strong Molisch reactions obtained with such extracts, the heat stability and the negative protein reactions (biuret). Since, however, it still contains 7 per cent nitrogen, this is not certain. In the antigenic composition of both Proteus X-19 and typhus Rickettsia there is a common soluble specific factor which is responsible for the Weil-Felix reaction. PMID:19870282

  7. Prevalence and risk factors for scrub typhus in South India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trowbridge, Paul; P, Divya; Premkumar, Prasanna S; Varghese, George M

    2017-05-01

    To determine the prevalence and risk factors of scrub typhus in Tamil Nadu, South India. We performed a clustered seroprevalence study of the areas around Vellore. All participants completed a risk factor survey, with seropositive and seronegative participants acting as cases and controls, respectively, in a risk factor analysis. After univariate analysis, variables found to be significant underwent multivariate analysis. Of 721 people participating in this study, 31.8% tested seropositive. By univariate analysis, after accounting for clustering, having a house that was clustered with other houses, having a fewer rooms in a house, having fewer people living in a household, defecating outside, female sex, age >60 years, shorter height, lower weight, smaller body mass index and smaller mid-upper arm circumference were found to be significantly associated with seropositivity. After multivariate regression modelling, living in a house clustered with other houses, female sex and age >60 years were significantly associated with scrub typhus exposure. Overall, scrub typhus is much more common than previously thought. Previously described individual environmental and habitual risk factors seem to have less importance in South India, perhaps because of the overall scrub typhus-conducive nature of the environment in this region. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  8. A new focus of scrub typhus in tropical Australia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Currie, B; O'Connor, L; Dwyer, B

    1993-10-01

    A new focus of scrub typhus (Rickettsia tsutsugamushi) is described in a remote rain forest region of the Northern Territory of Australia. Five serologically confirmed cases, two near fatal with multisystem involvement, have occurred since the area became accessible to tourists. As tourism increases, other remote foci of vectors and organisms may also be recognized in tropical Australia.

  9. Molecular detection of Orientia tsutsugamushi from suspected scrub typhus cases

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seethalakshmi Srinivasan

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Context: Scrub typhus is an acute febrile illness caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. The disease is under-diagnosed in India, because of low index of suspicion and also due to its nonspecific presentation, and lack of confirmatory diagnostic tests. Aims: This study was undertaken to diagnose scrub typhus in patients with undifferentiated fevers by serology and molecular methods. Materials and Methods: A total of 68 blood samples were collected from patients clinically suspected to have scrub typhus. After transportation to the laboratory, the serum was separated from the blood and subjected to rapid card test. The ethylenediaminetetraacetic acid blood samples were subjected to DNA extraction using QIAamp DNA Mini Kit followed by nested polymerase chain reaction (nPCR. Results: 24/68 (35.29% cases showed the presence of antibody against scrub typhus by serology. 6/68 (8.8% patients showed the presence of outer membrane protein antigen gene 56 kDa by nPCR. 5/24 serology positive cases showed the presence of 56 kDa outer membrane protein antigen gene by nPCR. A large number of cases positive by serology were negative by PCR which may indicate a low sensitivity of this test either due to low copy numbers or due to excess host DNA. Conclusion: Delay in treatment may increase disease severity and leads to higher mortality. Thus, molecular methods of diagnosis may aid in the early diagnosis of infection and enable prompt treatment. This is the first report on the diagnosis of scrub typhus in the suburbs of Chennai using molecular methods and reemphasizes the need for increased awareness of rickettsial infections in rural areas.

  10. Acute sensorineural hearing loss and severe otalgia due to scrub typhus

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    Kim Dong-Min

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scrub typhus is an acute febrile illness caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. Case presentations We encountered a patient with sensorineural hearing loss complicating scrub typhus, and three patients with scrub typhus who complained of otalgia, which was sudden onset, severe, paroxysmal, intermittent yet persistent pain lasting for several seconds, appeared within 1 week after the onset of fever and rash. The acute sensorineural hearing loss and otalgia were resolved after antibiotic administration. Conclusion When patients in endemic areas present with fever and rash and have sensorineural hearing loss or otalgia without otoscopic abnormalities, clinicians should suspect scrub typhus and consider empirical antibiotic therapy.

  11. Immunohistochemical Study of Scrub Typhus: A Report of Two Cases

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    Bo-Yuan Tseng

    2008-02-01

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus is a zoonotic disease caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, which is transmitted by chiggers. The target cells of this rickettsia are poorly defined in humans. Immunohistochemical staining of tissue sections of patients with scrub typhus is helpful in investigating the target cells of this rickettsia in different organs. We studied two autopsy specimens by immunohistochemical staining using a specific antibody against O. tsutsugamushi. Rickettsiae were located in endothelial cells in all of the organs evaluated, namely heart, lung, brain, kidney, appendix and skin, within cardiac muscle cells and renal tubular epithelial cells, and in macrophages located in the lymph node, liver and spleen. In conclusion, O. tsutsugamushi may disseminate into multiple organs through endothelial cells and macrophages, resulting in the development of fatal complications.

  12. Epidemiology & risk factors of scrub typhus in south India

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    George M Varghese

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Scrub typhus is a major public health threat in South and Southeastern Asian countries including India. Understanding local patterns of disease and factors that place individuals at risk is pivotal to future preventive measures against scrub typhus. The primary aim of this study was to identify specific epidemiological and geographical factors associated with an increased risk of developing scrub typhus in this region. Methods: We mapped 709 patients from Tamil Nadu, Andhra Pradesh and Telangana who were admitted to the Christian Medical College (CMC Hospital, Vellore, Tamil Nadu, India, for the period 2006-2011, assessed seasonality using monthly counts of scrub typhus cases, and conducted a case-control study among a subset of patients residing in Vellore. Results: The geographic distribution of cases at CMC Hospital clusters around the Tamil Nadu-Andhra Pradesh border. However, distinct hotspots clearly exist distal to this area, near Madurai and the coast in Tamil Nadu, and in the Northeast of Andhra Pradesh. Seasonally, the highest numbers of cases were observed in the cooler months of the year, i.e. September to January. In the case-control analysis, cases were more likely to be agricultural laborers (OR 1.79, 95% CI 1.01 - 3.15, not wear a shirt at home (OR 4.23, 95% CI 1.12 - 16.3, live in houses adjacent to bushes or shrubs (OR 1.95, 95% CI 1.08 - 3.53, and live in a single room home (OR 1.75, 95% CI 1.02 - 3.01. On binary logistic regression, the first three of these variables were statistically significant. Interpretation & conclusions: With the growing number of cases detected in India, scrub typhus is fast emerging as a public health threat and further research to protect the population from this deadly infection is essential. Health education campaigns focusing on the agricultural workers of Southern India, especially during the cooler months of the year, can serve as an important public health measure to

  13. Bartonella quintana and Typhus Group Rickettsiae Exposure among Homeless Persons, Bogotá, Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faccini-Martínez, Álvaro A; Márquez, Andrea C; Bravo-Estupiñan, Diana M; Calixto, Omar-Javier; López-Castillo, Christian A; Botero-García, Carlos A; Hidalgo, Marylin; Cuervo, Claudia

    2017-11-01

    In 2015, we investigated Bartonella quintana and typhus group rickettsiae in body lice from homeless persons in Bogotá, Colombia. We found B. quintana-infected body lice and seroprevalence of this microorganism in 19% of homeless persons and typhus group rickettsiae in 56%. Public health professionals should start preemptive measures and active vector control.

  14. A Spatiotemporal Database to Track Human Scrub Typhus Using the VectorMap Application.

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    Daryl J Kelly

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus is a potentially fatal mite-borne febrile illness, primarily of the Asia-Pacific Rim. With an endemic area greater than 13 million km2 and millions of people at risk, scrub typhus remains an underreported, often misdiagnosed febrile illness. A comprehensive, updatable map of the true distribution of cases has been lacking, and therefore the true risk of disease within the very large endemic area remains unknown. The purpose of this study was to establish a database and map to track human scrub typhus. An online search using PubMed and the United States Armed Forces Pest Management Board Literature Retrieval System was performed to identify articles describing human scrub typhus cases both within and outside the traditionally accepted endemic regions. Using World Health Organization guidelines, stringent criteria were used to establish diagnoses for inclusion in the database. The preliminary screening of 181 scrub typhus publications yielded 145 publications that met the case criterion, 267 case records, and 13 serosurvey records that could be georeferenced, describing 13,739 probable or confirmed human cases in 28 countries. A map service has been established within VectorMap (www.vectormap.org to explore the role that relative location of vectors, hosts, and the pathogen play in the transmission of mite-borne scrub typhus. The online display of scrub typhus cases in VectorMap illustrates their presence and provides an up-to-date geographic distribution of proven scrub typhus cases.

  15. Coagulation and inflammation in scrub typhus and murine typhusu-a prospective comparative study from Laos

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Paris, D. H.; Chansamouth, V.; Nawtaisong, P.; Löwenberg, E. C.; Phetsouvanh, R.; Blacksell, S. D.; Lee, S. J.; Dondorp, A. M.; van der Poll, T.; Newton, P. N.; Levi, M. [=Marcel M.; Day, N. P. J.

    2012-01-01

    Scrub typhus (caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi) and murine typhus (caused by Rickettsia typhi) cause up to 28% of febrile episodes in Thailand and Laos. The current understanding of coagulation and inflammation in the pathogenesis of these clinically very similar vasculotropic diseases is limited.

  16. Empirical assessment of a threshold model for sylvatic plague

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davis, Stephen; Leirs, Herwig; Viljugrein, H.

    2007-01-01

    Plague surveillance programmes established in Kazakhstan, Central Asia, during the previous century, have generated large plague archives that have been used to parameterize an abundance threshold model for sylvatic plague in great gerbil (Rhombomys opimus) populations. Here, we assess the model...... examine six hypotheses that could explain the resulting false positive predictions, namely (i) including end-of-outbreak data erroneously lowers the estimated threshold, (ii) too few gerbils were tested, (iii) plague becomes locally extinct, (iv) the abundance of fleas was too low, (v) the climate...

  17. Identification of factors for physicians to facilitate early differential diagnosis of scrub typhus, murine typhus, and Q fever from dengue fever in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Ko; Lee, Nan-Yao; Ko, Wen-Chien; Tsai, Jih-Jin; Lin, Wei-Ru; Chen, Tun-Chieh; Lu, Po-Liang; Chen, Yen-Hsu

    2017-02-01

    Dengue fever, rickettsial diseases, and Q fever are acute febrile illnesses with similar manifestations in tropical areas. Early differential diagnosis of scrub typhus, murine typhus, and Q fever from dengue fever may be made by understanding the distinguishing clinical characteristics and the significance of demographic and weather factors. We conducted a retrospective study to identify clinical, demographic, and meteorological characteristics of 454 dengue fever, 178 scrub typhus, 143 Q fever, and 81 murine typhus cases in three Taiwan hospitals. Case numbers of murine typhus and Q fever correlated significantly with temperature and rainfall; the scrub typhus case number was only significantly related with temperature. Neither temperature nor rainfall correlated with the case number of dengue fever. The rarity of dengue fever cases from January to June in Taiwan may be a helpful clue for diagnosis in the area. A male predominance was observed, as the male-to-female rate was 2.1 for murine typhus and 7.4 for Q fever. Multivariate analysis revealed the following six important factors for differentiating the rickettsial diseases and Q fever group from the dengue fever group: fever ≥8 days, alanine aminotransferase > aspartate aminotransferase, platelets >63,000/mL, C-reactive protein >31.9 mg/L, absence of bone pain, and absence of a bleeding syndrome. Understanding the rarity of dengue in the first half of a year in Taiwan and the six differentiating factors may help facilitate the early differential diagnosis of rickettsial diseases and Q fever from dengue fever, permitting early antibiotic treatment. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  18. Interspecific comparisons of sylvatic plague in prairie dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cully, J.F.; Williams, E.S.

    2001-01-01

    Of the 3 major factors (habitat loss, poisoning, and disease) that limit abundance of prairie dogs today, sylvatic plague caused by Yersinia pestis is the 1 factor that is beyond human control. Plague epizootics frequently kill >99% of prairie dogs in infected colonies. Although epizootics of sylvatic plague occur throughout most of the range of prairie dogs in the United States and are well described, long-term maintenance of plague in enzootic rodent species is not well documented or understood. We review dynamics of plague in white-tailed (Cynomys leucurus), Gunnison's (C. gunnisoni), and black-tailed (C. ludovicianus) prairie dogs, and their rodent and flea associates. We use epidemiologic concepts to support an enzootic hypothesis in which the disease is maintained in a dynamic state, which requires transmission of Y. pestis to be slower than recruitment of new susceptible mammal hosts. Major effects of plague are to reduce colony size of black-tailed prairie dogs and increase intercolony distances within colony complexes. In the presence of plague, black-tailed prairie dogs will probably survive in complexes of small colonies that are usually >3 km from their nearest neighbor colonies.

  19. Scrub typhus islands in the Taiwan area and the association between scrub typhus disease and forest land use and farmer population density: geographically weighted regression.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, Pui-Jen; Yeh, Hsi-Chyi

    2013-04-29

    The Taiwan area comprises the main island of Taiwan and several small islands located off the coast of the Southern China. The eastern two-thirds of Taiwan are characterized by rugged mountains covered with tropical and subtropical vegetation. The western region of Taiwan is characterized by flat or gently rolling plains. Geographically, the Taiwan area is diverse in ecology and environment, although scrub typhus threatens local human populations. In this study, we investigate the effects of seasonal and meteorological factors on the incidence of scrub typhus infection among 10 local climate regions. The correlation between the spatial distribution of scrub typhus and cultivated forests in Taiwan, as well as the relationship between scrub typhus incidence and the population density of farm workers is examined. We applied Pearson's product moment correlation to calculate the correlation between the incidence of scrub typhus and meteorological factors among 10 local climate regions. We used the geographically weighted regression (GWR) method, a type of spatial regression that generates parameters disaggregated by the spatial units of analysis, to detail and map each regression point for the response variables of the standardized incidence ratio (SIR)-district scrub typhus. We also applied the GWR to examine the explanatory variables of types of forest-land use and farm worker density in Taiwan in 2005. In the Taiwan Area, scrub typhus endemic areas are located in the southeastern regions and mountainous townships of Taiwan, as well as the Pescadore, Kinmen, and Matou Islands. Among these islands and low-incidence areas in the central western and southwestern regions of Taiwan, we observed a significant correlation between scrub typhus incidence and surface temperature. No similar significant correlation was found in the endemic areas (e.g., the southeastern region and the mountainous area of Taiwan). Precipitation correlates positively with scrub typhus incidence in

  20. A Comparative Study of Hepatitis Caused by Scrub Typhus and Viral Hepatitis A in South Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Jun; Kim, Dong-Min; Yun, Na Ra; Byeon, Yu Mi; Kim, Young Dae; Park, Chan Guk; Kim, Man Woo; Han, Mi Ah

    2011-01-01

    We compared clinical features and laboratory findings of 104 patients with hepatitis A and 197 patients with scrub typhus. Nausea, vomiting, abdominal pain, hepatomegaly, and jaundice were common in patient with hepatitis A, and fever and headache were significantly more common in patients with scrub typhus. At presentation, an alanine aminotransferase (ALT) level ≥ 500 U/L was observed in 1% of scrub typhus patients and in 87.5% of hepatitis A patients (P hepatitis A patients. The ALT:lactate dehydrogenase ratio was ≤ 5 in 97.4% of the patients with scrub typhus and > 5 in 95.2% of those with hepatitis A (P 5, and hepatomegaly are indications of viral hepatitis A. PMID:22049041

  1. Acute Febrile Illness and Complications Due to Murine Typhus, Texas, USA1,2.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afzal, Zeeshan; Kallumadanda, Sunand; Wang, Feng; Hemmige, Vagish; Musher, Daniel

    2017-08-01

    Murine typhus occurs relatively commonly in southern Texas, as well as in California. We reviewed records of 90 adults and children in whom murine typhus was diagnosed during a 3-year period in 2 hospitals in southern Texas, USA. Most patients lacked notable comorbidities; all were immunocompetent. Initial signs and symptoms included fever (99%), malaise (82%), headache (77%), fatigue (70%), myalgias (68%), and rash (39%). Complications, often severe, in 28% of patients included bronchiolitis, pneumonia, meningitis, septic shock, cholecystitis, pancreatitis, myositis, and rhabdomyolysis; the last 3 are previously unreported in murine typhus. Low serum albumin and elevated procalcitonin, consistent with bacterial sepsis, were observed in >70% of cases. Rash was more common in children; thrombocytopenia, hyponatremia, elevated hepatic transaminases, and complications were more frequent in adults. Murine typhus should be considered as a diagnostic possibility in cases of acute febrile illness in southern and even in more northern US states.

  2. Comparison of Scrub Typhus Meningitis with Acute Bacterial Meningitis and Tuberculous Meningitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kakarlapudi, Svas Raju; Chacko, Anila; Samuel, Prasanna; Verghese, Valsan Philip; Rose, Winsley

    2018-01-15

    To compare scrub typhus meningitis with bacterial and tuberculous meningitis. Children aged <15 years admitted with meningitis were screened and those who fit criteria for diagnosis of scrub typhus meningitis (n=48), bacterial meningitis (n=44) and tuberculous meningitis (n=31) were included for analysis. Clinical features, investigations and outcomes were compared between the three types of meningitis. Mean age, duration of fever at presentation, presence of headache and, altered sensorium and presence of hepatomegaly/splenomegaly were statistically significantly different between the groups. Scrub typhus had statistically significant thrombocytopenia, shorter hospital stay and a better neurological and mortality outcome. Sub-acute presentation of meningitis in older age group children, and good outcome is associated with scrub typhus when compared to bacterial and tuberculous meningitis.

  3. Hematogenously disseminated Orientia tsutsugamushi-infected murine model of scrub typhus [corrected].

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas R Shelite

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Orientia tsutsugamushi, the etiologic agent of scrub typhus, is a mite-borne rickettsia transmitted by the parasitic larval stage of trombiculid mites. Approximately one-third of the world's population is at risk of infection with Orientia tsutsugamushi, emphasizing its importance in global health. In order to study scrub typhus, Orientia tsutsugamushi Karp strain has been used extensively in mouse studies with various inoculation strategies and little success in inducing disease progression similar to that of human scrub typhus. The objective of this project was to develop a disease model with pathology and target cells similar to those of severe human scrub typhus. This study reports an intravenous infection model of scrub typhus in C57BL/6 mice. This mouse strain was susceptible to intravenous challenge, and lethal infection occurred after intravenous inoculation of 1.25 × 10(6 focus (FFU forming units. Signs of illness in lethally infected mice appeared on day 6 with death occurring ∼ 6 days later. Immunohistochemical staining for Orientia antigens demonstrated extensive endothelial infection, most notably in the lungs and brain. Histopathological analysis revealed cerebral perivascular, lymphohistiocytic infiltrates, focal hemorrhages, meningoencephalitis, and interstitial pneumonia. Disseminated infection of endothelial cells with Orientia in C57BL/6 mice resulted in pathology resembling that of human scrub typhus. The use of this model will allow detailed characterization of the mechanisms of immunity to and pathogenesis of O. tsutsugamushi infection.

  4. Uncommon manifestations of scrub typhus encephalitis in two cases: Clinical and magnetic resonance imaging findings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Heo, Young Jin; Jeong, Hae Woong [Dept. of Radiology, Inje University Busan Paik Hospital, Busan (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-11-15

    Scrub typhus is a well-known acute febrile illness caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi. This disease has multiorgan involvement, which includes the lungs, heart, liver, spleen, and the central or peripheral nervous system. Scrub typhus involving the central nervous system (CNS) is not rare. However, meningitis and meningoencephalitis can cause changes in mentation and death and are therefore associated with a poor prognosis. We report two consecutive cases of scrub typhus with CNS involvement. One patient presented with extensive white matter involvement, similar to that observed in acute disseminated encephalomyelitis, whereas the other patient presented with subependymal enhancement along the lateral ventricles. To the best of our knowledge, scrub typhus encephalitis, with extensive white matter involvement and subependymal enhancement, are very rarely described findings in the previous literature. Our patients did not show complete recovery, but the symptoms resolved with treatment. Recognizing these uncommon radiologic findings of scrub typhus may be helpful in the early diagnosis of scrub typhus with CNS involvement, which may alter the prognoses of patients.

  5. The Historical Case for and the Future Study of Antibiotic-Resistant Scrub Typhus

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    Daryl J. Kelly

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus is an acute, and sometimes fatal, human febrile illness, typically successfully treated using chloramphenicol or one of the tetracyclines. Over the past several years, descriptions of strains of Orientia tsutsugamushi with reduced susceptibility to antibiotics have appeared. Because case-fatality ratios approached 50% during the pre-antibiotic era, antibiotic-resistant scrub typhus is concerning. Herein, we review the data on resistant scrub typhus, describe how the theoretical existence of such resistance is affected by interpretation of treatment outcomes, and propose a plan to further identify whether true drug resistance is present and how to deal with drug resistance if it has evolved. Limited resistance is not unambiguous, if present, and antibiotic resistance in scrub typhus is not a dichotomous trait. Rather, evidence of resistance shows a continuous gradation of increasing resistance. The availability of genomes from isolates of O. tsutsugamushi allows the search for loci that might contribute to antibiotic resistance. At least eighteen such loci occur in all genomes of O. tsutsugamushi examined. One gene (gyrA occurs as a quinolone-resistant form in the genome of all isolates of O. tsutsugamushi. At least 13 other genes that are present in some members of the genus Rickettsia do not occur within O. tsutsugamushi. Even though reports of scrub typhus not responding appropriately to chloramphenicol or a tetracycline treatment have been in the literature for approximately 23 years, the existence and importance of antibiotic-resistant scrub typhus remains uncertain.

  6. Sylvatic plague vaccine: combating plague in prarie dogs and black-footed ferrets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocke, Tonie E.; Abbott, Rachel C.

    2012-01-01

    After achieving promising results in laboratory trials, researchers at the USGS National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC) and University of Wisconsin at Madison will soon begin field testing a new oral vaccine for sylvatic plague, a devastating disease affecting prairie dogs and other mammals, particularly the endangered black-footed ferret. Our team has developed and is currently registering a sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) that uses raccoon poxvirus (RCN) to express two key antigens of the Yersinia pestis bacterium, the causative agent of plague.

  7. A Systematic Review of Mortality from Untreated Scrub Typhus (Orientia tsutsugamushi.

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    Andrew J Taylor

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus, a bacterial infection caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is increasingly recognized as an important cause of fever in Asia, with an estimated one million infections occurring each year. Limited access to health care and the disease's non-specific symptoms mean that many patients are undiagnosed and untreated, but the mortality from untreated scrub typhus is unknown. This review systematically summarizes the literature on the untreated mortality from scrub typhus and disease outcomes.A literature search was performed to identify patient series containing untreated patients. Patients were included if they were symptomatic and had a clinical or laboratory diagnosis of scrub typhus and excluded if they were treated with antibiotics. The primary outcome was mortality from untreated scrub typhus and secondary outcomes were total days of fever, clinical symptoms, and laboratory results. A total of 76 studies containing 89 patient series and 19,644 patients were included in the final analysis. The median mortality of all patient series was 6.0% with a wide range (min-max of 0-70%. Many studies used clinical diagnosis alone and had incomplete data on secondary outcomes. Mortality varied by location and increased with age and in patients with myocarditis, delirium, pneumonitis, or signs of hemorrhage, but not according to sex or the presence of an eschar or meningitis. Duration of fever was shown to be long (median 14.4 days Range (9-19.Results show that the untreated mortality from scrub typhus appears lower than previously reported estimates. More data are required to clarify mortality according to location and host factors, clinical syndromes including myocarditis and central nervous system disease, and in vulnerable mother-child populations. Increased surveillance and improved access to diagnostic tests are required to accurately estimate the untreated mortality of scrub typhus. This information would facilitate reliable quantification of

  8. Emergence Potential of Sylvatic Dengue Virus Type 4 in the Urban Transmission Cycle is Restrained by Vaccination and Homotypic Immunity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durbin, Anna P.; Mayer, Sandra V.; Rossi, Shannan L.; Amaya-Larios, Irma Y.; Ramos-Castaneda, Jose; Ooi, Eng Eong; Cardosa, M. Jane; Munoz-Jordan, Jorge L.; Tesh, Robert B.; Messer, William B.; Weaver, Scott C.; Vasilakis, Nikos

    2013-01-01

    Sylvatic dengue viruses (DENV) are both evolutionarily and ecologically distinct from human DENV and are maintained in an enzootic transmission cycle. Evidence of sylvatic human infections from West Africa and Southeast Asia suggests that sylvatic DENV come into regular contact with humans. Thus, this potential of emergence into the human transmission cycle could limit the potential for eradicating this cycle with vaccines currently in late stages of development. We assessed the likelihood of sylvatic DENV-4 emergence in the face of natural immunity to current human strains and vaccination with two DENV-4 vaccine candidates. Our data indicate homotypic neutralization of sylvatic and human DENV-4 strains by human primary convalescent and vaccinee sera but limited heterotypic immunity. These results suggest that emergence of sylvatic strains into the human cycle would be limited by homotypic immunity mediated by virus neutralizing antibodies produced by natural infection or vaccination. PMID:23485373

  9. Sylvatic plague vaccine and management of prairie dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocke, Tonie E.

    2012-01-01

    Scientists at the USGS National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC), in collaboration with colleagues at the University of Wisconsin (UW), have developed a sylvatic plague vaccine that shows great promise in protecting prairie dogs against plague (Mencher and others, 2004; Rocke and others, 2010). Four species of prairie dogs reside in the United States and Canada, and all are highly susceptible to plague and regularly experience outbreaks with devastating losses. Along with habitat loss and poisoning, plague has contributed to a significant historical decline in prairie dog populations. By some estimates, prairie dogs now occupy only 1 to 2 percent of their former range (Proctor and others, 2006), with prairie dog colonies being now much smaller and fragmented than they were historically, making individual colonies more vulnerable to elimination by plague (Antolin and others, 2002). At least one species, the Utah prairie dog (Cynomys parvidens) is listed by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS) as "threatened." Controlling plague is a vital concern for ongoing management and conservation efforts for prairie dogs. Current efforts to halt the spread of plague in prairie dog colonies typically rely on dusting individual prairie dog burrows with pesticides to kill plague-infected fleas. Although flea-control insecticides, such as deltamethrin, are useful in stopping plague outbreaks in these prairie dog colonies, dusting of burrows is labor intensive and time consuming and may affect other insects and arthropods. As an alternative approach, NWHC and UW scientists developed a sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) for prairie dogs that can be delivered via oral bait. Laboratory studies have shown that consumption of this vaccine-laden bait by different prairie dog species results in significant protection against plague infection that can last for at least 9 months (Rocke and others, 2010; Rocke, unpublished). Work has now shifted to optimizing baits and distribution methods for

  10. Typhus Exanthematicus in Romania During the Second World War (1940-1945) Reflected by Romanian Medical Journals of the Time.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jeican, Ionuţ Isaia; Botiş, Florin Ovidiu; Gheban, Dan

    2015-01-01

    This article provides a picture of exanthematic Typhus in Romania during the Second World War: epidemiological aspects of this disease in the inner zone and in the zone of military operations, as well as information about the diagnosis, treatment and prophylaxis of the Typhus in our country during this period.

  11. Ecological factors related to the widespread distribution of sylvatic Rhodnius ecuadoriensis populations in southern Ecuador

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Grijalva Mario J

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Chagas disease transmission risk is a function of the presence of triatomines in domestic habitats. Rhodnius ecuadoriensis is one of the main vectors implicated in transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in Ecuador. This triatomine species is present in domestic, peridomestic and sylvatic habitats in the country. To determine the distribution of sylvatic populations of R. ecuadoriensis and the factors related to this distribution, triatomine searches were conducted between 2005 and 2009 in southern Ecuador. Methods Manual triatomine searches were conducted by skilled bug collectors in 23 communities. Sylvatic searched sites were selected by a directed sampling, where microhabitats were selected by the searchers and b random sampling, where sampling points where randomly generated. Domiciliary triatomine searches were conducted using the one man-hour method. Natural trypanosome infection was determined by microscopic examination and PCR. Generalized linear models were used to test the effect of environmental factors on the presence of sylvatic triatomines. Results In total, 1,923 sylvatic individuals were collected representing a sampling effort of 751 man-hours. Collected sylvatic triatomines were associated with mammal and bird nests. The 1,219 sampled nests presented an infestation index of 11.9%, a crowding of 13 bugs per infested nest, and a colonization of 80% of the nests. Triatomine abundance was significantly higher in squirrel (Sciurus stramineus nests located above five meters from ground level and close to the houses. In addition, 8.5% of the 820 examined houses in the same localities were infested with triatomines. There was a significant correlation between R. ecuadoriensis infestation rates found in sylvatic and synanthropic environments within communities (p = 0.012. Parasitological analysis revealed that 64.7% and 15.7% of the sylvatic bugs examined (n = 300 were infected with Trypanosoma cruzi and T. rangeli

  12. Ecological factors related to the widespread distribution of sylvatic Rhodnius ecuadoriensis populations in southern Ecuador.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grijalva, Mario J; Suarez-Davalos, Victoria; Villacis, Anita G; Ocaña-Mayorga, Sofia; Dangles, Olivier

    2012-01-13

    Chagas disease transmission risk is a function of the presence of triatomines in domestic habitats. Rhodnius ecuadoriensis is one of the main vectors implicated in transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in Ecuador. This triatomine species is present in domestic, peridomestic and sylvatic habitats in the country. To determine the distribution of sylvatic populations of R. ecuadoriensis and the factors related to this distribution, triatomine searches were conducted between 2005 and 2009 in southern Ecuador. Manual triatomine searches were conducted by skilled bug collectors in 23 communities. Sylvatic searched sites were selected by a) directed sampling, where microhabitats were selected by the searchers and b) random sampling, where sampling points where randomly generated. Domiciliary triatomine searches were conducted using the one man-hour method. Natural trypanosome infection was determined by microscopic examination and PCR. Generalized linear models were used to test the effect of environmental factors on the presence of sylvatic triatomines. In total, 1,923 sylvatic individuals were collected representing a sampling effort of 751 man-hours. Collected sylvatic triatomines were associated with mammal and bird nests. The 1,219 sampled nests presented an infestation index of 11.9%, a crowding of 13 bugs per infested nest, and a colonization of 80% of the nests. Triatomine abundance was significantly higher in squirrel (Sciurus stramineus) nests located above five meters from ground level and close to the houses. In addition, 8.5% of the 820 examined houses in the same localities were infested with triatomines. There was a significant correlation between R. ecuadoriensis infestation rates found in sylvatic and synanthropic environments within communities (p = 0.012). Parasitological analysis revealed that 64.7% and 15.7% of the sylvatic bugs examined (n = 300) were infected with Trypanosoma cruzi and T. rangeli respectively, and 8% of the bugs presented mixed

  13. Ecological factors related to the widespread distribution of sylvatic Rhodnius ecuadoriensis populations in southern Ecuador

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-01-01

    Background Chagas disease transmission risk is a function of the presence of triatomines in domestic habitats. Rhodnius ecuadoriensis is one of the main vectors implicated in transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in Ecuador. This triatomine species is present in domestic, peridomestic and sylvatic habitats in the country. To determine the distribution of sylvatic populations of R. ecuadoriensis and the factors related to this distribution, triatomine searches were conducted between 2005 and 2009 in southern Ecuador. Methods Manual triatomine searches were conducted by skilled bug collectors in 23 communities. Sylvatic searched sites were selected by a) directed sampling, where microhabitats were selected by the searchers and b) random sampling, where sampling points where randomly generated. Domiciliary triatomine searches were conducted using the one man-hour method. Natural trypanosome infection was determined by microscopic examination and PCR. Generalized linear models were used to test the effect of environmental factors on the presence of sylvatic triatomines. Results In total, 1,923 sylvatic individuals were collected representing a sampling effort of 751 man-hours. Collected sylvatic triatomines were associated with mammal and bird nests. The 1,219 sampled nests presented an infestation index of 11.9%, a crowding of 13 bugs per infested nest, and a colonization of 80% of the nests. Triatomine abundance was significantly higher in squirrel (Sciurus stramineus) nests located above five meters from ground level and close to the houses. In addition, 8.5% of the 820 examined houses in the same localities were infested with triatomines. There was a significant correlation between R. ecuadoriensis infestation rates found in sylvatic and synanthropic environments within communities (p = 0.012). Parasitological analysis revealed that 64.7% and 15.7% of the sylvatic bugs examined (n = 300) were infected with Trypanosoma cruzi and T. rangeli respectively, and 8% of the

  14. Dynamics of sylvatic Chagas disease vectors in coastal Ecuador is driven by changes in land cover.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grijalva, Mario J; Terán, David; Dangles, Olivier

    2014-06-01

    Chagas disease is a serious public health problem in Latin America where about ten million individuals show Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Despite significant success in controlling domiciliated triatomines, sylvatic populations frequently infest houses after insecticide treatment which hampers long term control prospects in vast geographical areas where vectorial transmission is endemic. As a key issue, the spatio-temporal dynamics of sylvatic populations is likely influenced by landscape yet evidence showing this effect is rare. The aim of this work is to examine the role of land cover changes in sylvatic triatomine ecology, based on an exhaustive field survey of pathogens, vectors, hosts, and microhabitat characteristics' dynamics. The study was performed in agricultural landscapes of coastal Ecuador as a study model. Over one year, a spatially-randomized sampling design (490 collection points) allowed quantifying triatomine densities in natural, cultivated and domestic habitats. We also assessed infection of the bugs with trypanosomes, documented their microhabitats and potential hosts, and recorded changes in landscape characteristics. In total we collected 886 individuals, mainly represented by nymphal stages of one triatomine species Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. As main results, we found that 1) sylvatic triatomines had very high T. cruzi infection rates (71%) and 2) densities of T. cruzi-infected sylvatic triatomines varied predictably over time due to changes in land cover and occurrence of associated rodent hosts. We propose a framework for identifying the factors affecting the yearly distribution of sylvatic T. cruzi vectors. Beyond providing key basic information for the control of human habitat colonization by sylvatic vector populations, our framework highlights the importance of both environmental and sociological factors in shaping the spatio-temporal population dynamics of triatomines. A better understanding of the dynamics of such socio

  15. Dynamics of sylvatic Chagas disease vectors in coastal Ecuador is driven by changes in land cover.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario J Grijalva

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease is a serious public health problem in Latin America where about ten million individuals show Trypanosoma cruzi infection. Despite significant success in controlling domiciliated triatomines, sylvatic populations frequently infest houses after insecticide treatment which hampers long term control prospects in vast geographical areas where vectorial transmission is endemic. As a key issue, the spatio-temporal dynamics of sylvatic populations is likely influenced by landscape yet evidence showing this effect is rare. The aim of this work is to examine the role of land cover changes in sylvatic triatomine ecology, based on an exhaustive field survey of pathogens, vectors, hosts, and microhabitat characteristics' dynamics.The study was performed in agricultural landscapes of coastal Ecuador as a study model. Over one year, a spatially-randomized sampling design (490 collection points allowed quantifying triatomine densities in natural, cultivated and domestic habitats. We also assessed infection of the bugs with trypanosomes, documented their microhabitats and potential hosts, and recorded changes in landscape characteristics. In total we collected 886 individuals, mainly represented by nymphal stages of one triatomine species Rhodnius ecuadoriensis. As main results, we found that 1 sylvatic triatomines had very high T. cruzi infection rates (71% and 2 densities of T. cruzi-infected sylvatic triatomines varied predictably over time due to changes in land cover and occurrence of associated rodent hosts.We propose a framework for identifying the factors affecting the yearly distribution of sylvatic T. cruzi vectors. Beyond providing key basic information for the control of human habitat colonization by sylvatic vector populations, our framework highlights the importance of both environmental and sociological factors in shaping the spatio-temporal population dynamics of triatomines. A better understanding of the dynamics of such socio

  16. STATUS OF SCRUB TYPHUS RESEARCH IN INDONESIA (Based on published reports

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    Lim Boo Liat

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus merupakan penyakit yang endemis di Indonesia. Akan tetapi laporan mengenai hal tersebut sangat sedikit. Penelusuran hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa sebelum tahun 1945 pernah dilaporkan hasil isolasi Rickettsia tsutsugamushi dari penderita demam di beberapa tempat di Indonesia. Setelah tahun 1970 beberapa penelitian seroepidemiologi dilakukan di beberapa daerah di Indonesia terutama daerah transmigrasi dengan hasil prevalensi antibodi terhadap scrub typhus tertinggi di daerah Biak dan Owi, Irian Jaya dan yang terendah di Flores dan Jakarta. Selain itu dilakukan pula penelitian mengenai vektor scrub typhus dan hospesnya dengan hasil di­temukannya 7 species tungau Leptotrombidium termasuk 2 jenis yang merupakan vektor. Saran untuk penelitian di masa yang akan datang diberikan dalam laporan ini.

  17. Use of Multiplex Real-Time PCR To Diagnose Scrub Typhus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tantibhedhyangkul, Wiwit; Wongsawat, Ekkarat; Silpasakorn, Saowaluk; Waywa, Duangdao; Saenyasiri, Nuttawut; Suesuay, Jintapa; Thipmontree, Wilawan; Suputtamongkol, Yupin

    2017-05-01

    Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi , is a common cause of acute undifferentiated febrile illness in the Asia-Pacific region. However, its nonspecific clinical manifestation often prevents early diagnosis. We propose the use of PCR and serologic tests as diagnostic tools. Here, we developed a multiplex real-time PCR assay using hydrolysis (TaqMan) probes targeting O. tsutsugamushi 47-kDa, groEL , and human interferon beta (IFN-β gene) genes to improve early diagnosis of scrub typhus. The amplification efficiency was higher than 94%, and the lower detection limit was 10 copies per reaction. We used a human gene as an internal DNA quality and quantity control. To determine the sensitivity of this PCR assay, we selected patients with confirmed scrub typhus who exhibited a clear 4-fold increase in the level of IgG and/or IgM. The PCR assay result was positive in 45 of 52 patients, indicating a sensitivity of 86.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 74.2 to 94.4). The PCR assessment was negative for all 136 non-scrub typhus patients, indicating a specificity of 100% (95% CI: 97.3 to 100). In addition, this test helped diagnose patients with inconclusive immunofluorescence assay (IFA) results and using single blood samples. In conclusion, the real-time PCR assay proposed here is sensitive and specific in diagnosing scrub typhus. Combining PCR and serologic tests will improve the diagnosis of scrub typhus among patients presenting with acute febrile illness. Copyright © 2017 American Society for Microbiology.

  18. Scrub typhus in Uttarakhand & adjoining Uttar Pradesh: Seasonality, clinical presentations & predictors of mortality

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    Anurag Bhargava

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background & objectives: Scrub typhus is a re-emerging mite-borne rickettsiosis, which continues to be underdiagnosed, with lethal consequences. The present study was conducted to determine the seasonality, clinical presentation and predictors of mortality in patients with scrub typhus at a tertiary care teaching hospital in northern India. Methods: Scrub typhus was suspected in patients attending the hospital as per the standard case definition and serological evidence was obtained by performing an IgM ELISA. Results: A total of 284 patients with scrub typhus from urban and rural areas were seen, predominantly from July to November. The most common clinical presentation was a bilateral community-acquired pneumonia (CAP, which resembled pneumonia due to atypical pathogens and often progressed to acute respiratory distress syndrome (ARDS. An acute undifferentiated febrile illness (AUFI or a febrile illness associated with altered sensorium, aseptic meningitis, shock, abdominal pain, gastrointestinal bleeding or jaundice was also seen. Eschars were seen in 17 per cent of patients, and thrombocytopenia, transaminitis and azotaemia were frequent. There were 24 deaths (8.5% caused predominantly by ARDS and multi-organ dysfunction. The mortality in patients with ARDS was high (37%. ARDS [odds ratio (OR=38.29, 95% confidence interval (CI: 9.93, 147.71] and acute kidney injury (OR=8.30, 95% CI: 2.21, 31.21 were the major predictors of death. Interpretation & conclusions: The present findings indicate that scrub typhus may be considered a cause of CAP, ARDS, AUFI or a febrile illness with multisystem involvement, in Uttarakhand and Uttar Pradesh, especially from July to November. Empiric therapy of CAP may include doxycycline or azithromycin to ensure coverage of underlying unsuspected scrub typhus.

  19. Pregnancy outcome in relation to treatment of murine typhus and scrub typhus infection: a fever cohort and a case series analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rose McGready

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available There is a paucity of published reports on pregnancy outcome following scrub and murine typhus despite these infections being leading causes of undifferentiated fever in Asia. This study aimed to relate pregnancy outcome with treatment of typhus.Data were analyzed from: i pregnant women with a diagnosis of scrub and/or murine typhus from a fever cohort studies; ii case series of published studies in PubMed using the search terms "scrub typhus" (ST, "murine typhus" (MT, "Orientia tsutsugamushi", "Rickettsia tsutsugamushi", "Rickettsia typhi", "rickettsiae", "typhus", or "rickettsiosis"; and "pregnancy", until February 2014 and iii an unpublished case series. Fever clearance time (FCT and pregnancy outcome (miscarriage and delivery were compared to treatment. Poor neonatal outcome was a composite measure for pregnancies sustained to 28 weeks or more of gestation ending in stillbirth, preterm birth, or delivery of a growth restricted or low birth weight newborn.There were 26 women in the fever cohort. MT and ST were clinically indistinguishable apart from two ST patients with eschars. FCTs (median [range] hours were 25 [16-42] for azithromycin (n=5, 34 [20-53] for antimalarials (n=5 and 92 [6-260] for other antibiotics/supportive therapy (n=16. There were 36.4% (8/22 with a poor neonatal outcome. In 18 years, 97 pregnancies were collated, 82 with known outcomes, including two maternal deaths. Proportions of miscarriage 17.3% (14/81 and poor neonatal outcomes 41.8% (28/67 were high, increasing with longer FCTs (p=0.050, linear trend. Use of azithromycin was not significantly associated with improved neonatal outcomes (p=0.610.The published ST and MT world literature amounts to less than 100 pregnancies due to under recognition and under diagnosis. Evidence supporting the most commonly used treatment, azithromycin, is weak. Collaborative, prospective clinical trials in pregnant women are urgently required to reduce the burden of adverse maternal and

  20. Potential for Zika Virus to Establish a Sylvatic Transmission Cycle in the Americas.

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    Benjamin M Althouse

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Zika virus (ZIKV originated and continues to circulate in a sylvatic transmission cycle between non-human primate hosts and arboreal mosquitoes in tropical Africa. Recently ZIKV invaded the Americas, where it poses a threat to human health, especially to pregnant women and their infants. Here we examine the risk that ZIKV will establish a sylvatic cycle in the Americas, focusing on Brazil. We review the natural history of sylvatic ZIKV and present a mathematical dynamic transmission model to assess the probability of establishment of a sylvatic ZIKV transmission cycle in non-human primates and/or other mammals and arboreal mosquito vectors in Brazil. Brazil is home to multiple species of primates and mosquitoes potentially capable of ZIKV transmission, though direct assessment of host competence (ability to mount viremia sufficient to infect a feeding mosquito and vector competence (ability to become infected with ZIKV and disseminate and transmit upon subsequent feedings of New World species is lacking. Modeling reveals a high probability of establishment of sylvatic ZIKV across a large range of biologically plausible parameters. Probability of establishment is dependent on host and vector population sizes, host birthrates, and ZIKV force of infection. Research on the host competence of New World monkeys or other small mammals to ZIKV, on vector competence of New World Aedes, Sabethes, and Haemagogus mosquitoes for ZIKV, and on the geographic range of potential New World hosts and vectors is urgently needed. A sylvatic cycle of ZIKV would make future elimination efforts in the Americas practically impossible, and paints a dire picture for the epidemiology of ZIKV and our ability to end the ongoing outbreak of congenital Zika syndrome.

  1. Between bacteriology and virology: the development of typhus vaccines between the First and Second World Wars.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weindling, P

    1995-01-01

    This paper provides an overview of the development of typhus vaccines between the first and second world wars. It is shown that there was a shift in the classification of the causal Rickettsiae from being classed as bacteria to being conceptualised as a type of virus. This 'paradigm switch' stimulated interest in the possibility of producing an effective medicine.

  2. Comparison of minocycline and azithromycin for the treatment of mild scrub typhus in northern China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Minxing; Wang, Ting; Yuan, Xiaoyu; Du, Weiming; Lin, Miaoxin; Shen, Yanbo

    2016-09-01

    Scrub typhus, caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, has recently emerged in northern China where the disease had not been known to exist. Although doxycycline and azithromycin are the recommended agents for the treatment of scrub typhus, clinical responses depend both on the susceptibilities of various O. tsutsugamushi strains and the severity of the disease. A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients diagnosed with mild scrub typhus from August 2013 to January 2016 in the Affiliated Hospital of Nantong University, northern China. A total of 40 patients who received minocycline treatment and 34 patients who received azithromycin treatment were included in the analysis. All patients except one defervesced within 120 h after initiating antimicrobial therapy. Kaplan-Meier curves in association with log-rank test showed that the median time to defervescence was significantly shorter for the minocycline-treated group than the azithromycin-treated group (P = 0.003). There were no serious adverse events during treatment. No relapse occurred in either group during the 1-month follow-up period. In conclusion, both minocycline and azithromycin are effective and safe for the treatment of mild scrub typhus, but minocycline is more active than azithromycin against O. tsutsugamushi infection acquired in northern China. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. and International Society of Chemotherapy. All rights reserved.

  3. Scrub typhus masquerading as HELLP syndrome and puerperal sepsis in an asymptomatic malaria patient.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karim, Habib Md Reazaul; Bhattacharyya, Prithwis; Kakati, Sonai Datta; Borah, Tridip Jyoti; Yunus, Md

    2016-01-01

    Scrub typhus and malaria can involve multiple organ systems and are notoriously known for varied presentations. However, clinical malaria or scrub typhus is unusual without fever. On the other hand, altered sensorium with or without fever, dehydration, hemorrhage and hemolysis may lead to low blood pressure. Presence of toxic granules and elevated band forms in such patients can even mimic sepsis. When such a patient is in the peripartum period, it creates a strong clinical dilemma for the physician especially in unbooked obstetric cases. We present such a case where a 26-year-old unbooked female presented on second postpartum day with severe anemia, altered sensorium, difficulty in breathing along with jaundice and gum bleeding without history of fever. Rapid diagnostic test for malaria was negative and no eschar was seen. These parameters suggested a diagnosis of HELLP (Hemolysis, Elevated Liver enzymes, Low Platelet) syndrome with or without puerperal sepsis. Subsequently she was diagnosed as having asymptomatic malaria and scrub typhus and responded to the treatment of it. The biochemical changes suggestive of HELLP syndrome also subsided. We present this case to emphasize the fact that mere absence of fever and eschar does not rule out scrub typhus. It should also be considered as a differential diagnosis in patients with symptoms and signs suggesting HELLP syndrome. Asymptomatic malaria can complicate case scenario towards puerperal sepsis by giving false toxic granules and band form in such situations.

  4. Murine typhus and leptospirosis as causes of acute undifferentiated fever, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gasem, M. Hussein; Wagenaar, Jiri F. P.; Goris, Marga G. A.; Adi, Mateus S.; Isbandrio, Bambang B.; Hartskeerl, Rudy A.; Rolain, Jean Marc; Raoult, Didier; van Gorp, Eric C. M.

    2009-01-01

    To investigate rickettsioses and leptospirosis among urban residents of Semarang, Indonesia, we tested the blood of 137 patients with fever. Evidence of Rickettsia typhi, the agent of murine typhus, was found in 9 patients. Another 9 patients showed inconclusive serologic results. Thirteen patients

  5. Murine Typhus and Leptospirosis as Causes of Acute Undifferentiated Fever, Indonesia

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gasem, M.H.; Wagenaar, J.F.P.; Goris, M.G.A.; Adi, M.S.; Isbandrio, B.B.; Hartskeerl, R.A.; Rolain, J.M.; Raoult, D.; van Gorp, E.C.M.

    2009-01-01

    To investigate rickettsioses and leptospirosis among urban residents of Semarang, Indonesia, we tested the blood of 137 patients with fever. Evidence of Rickettsia typhi, the agent of murine typhus, was found in 9 patients. Another 9 patients showed inconclusive serologic results. Thirteen patients

  6. Rapid increase of scrub typhus incidence in Guangzhou, southern China, 2006-2014

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Y. Sun (Ye); Wei, Y.-H. (Yue-Hong); Yang, Y. (Yang); Ma, Y. (Yu); S.J. de Vlas (Sake); H.-W. Yao (Hong-Wu); Huang, Y. (Yong); Ma, M.-J. (Mai-Juan); K. Liu (Kun); Li, X.-N. (Xiao-Ning); X. Li (Xinlou); Zhang, W.-H. (Wen-Hui); Fang, L.-Q. (Li-Qun); Yang, Z.-C. (Zhi-Cong); Cao, W.-C. (Wu-Chun)

    2017-01-01

    textabstractBackground: In the last decade, scrub typhus (ST) has been emerging or re-emerging in some areas of Asia, including Guangzhou, one of the most affected endemic areas of ST in China. Methods: Based on the data on all cases reported in Guangzhou from 2006 to 2014, we characterized the

  7. Epidemiological, clinical and laboratory features of murine typhus in central Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aouam, A; Toumi, A; Ben Brahim, H; Loussaief, C; Jelliti, B; Ben Romdhane, F; Ben Yahia, S; Khairallah, M; Chakroun, M

    2015-04-01

    Murine typhus is an endemic zoonosis. It is difficult to diagnose because of its non-specific clinical manifestations. Our objective was to describe the epidemiological, clinical, laboratory, and treatment features of murine typhus. We conducted a retrospective study of 73 adult patients hospitalized for murine typhus from 2006 to 2011. The diagnosis was confirmed by a single titer of IgM≥128 or by seroconversion to typhus group antigen identified by indirect fluorescent assay. The mean age of patients was 33.1 years (range, 13-68 years). Thirty-eight patients (52%) lived in rural or suburban areas; neither fleabites nor exposure to rats were reported. The most common clinical symptoms were: fever, headache, and myalgia. A maculopapular and non-confluent rash was observed in 47 patients (64.4%). No inoculation eschar was observed in any patient. Eight patients presented with interstitial pneumonia and two with lymphocytic meningitis. The diagnosis was confirmed by indirect fluorescence assay in every case. A single titer of IgM ≥ 128 was found in 62 (84.9%) cases. The other 11 cases were diagnosed by seroconversion. All patients were given antibiotics. Tetracyclines were prescribed in 57 cases (78%). The two patients presenting with meningitis were treated with fluoroquinolone. The outcome was favorable for all patients and no relapse was observed. The features of murine typhus are non-specific. The definitive diagnosis is based on serologic testing by indirect fluorescent assay. Cyclins were the most prescribed antibiotics. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  8. [Clinical features of four atypical pediatric cases of endemic typhus with pneumonia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jin-rong; Xu, Bao-ping; Li, Shao-gang; Liu, Jun; Tian, Bao-lin; Zhao, Shun-ying

    2013-10-01

    To analyze clinical manifestations, treatment and prognosis of 4 cases with endemic typhus. The clinical data of four endemic typhus patients in prognosis were retrospectively analyzed. These four atypical cases of endemic typhus with pneumonia were treated in our department from October 2011 to March 2012. They were all male, with an age range of 15 months to 7 years. The four patients had long history, mild respiratory symptom and no improvement was found after treatment with cephalosporins. There were no evidences of bacterial, viral, or fungal infections and we thought they might have infection with other pathogen. Three were from rural areas. Routine blood tests, Weil-Felix reaction, blood smear (Giemsa staining) , and indirect immunofluorescence assay were performed. Blood smear and IFA tests showed evidences for endemic typhus. The clinical presentations were atypical, the patients had no headache, but all had fever, rash, and pneumonia of varying severity. None of the patients had a severe cough, but bronchial casts were observed in one case. Recurrent fever was reported in three cases. Physical examinations showed no eschars, but one patient had a subconjunctival hemorrhage, and one had skin scratches, cervical lymphadenopathy, pleural effusion, pericardial effusion, and cardiac dilatation. Two patients had remarkably increased peripheral blood leukocyte counts; both these patients also had high alanine aminotransferase (ALT) levels and one had a high C-reactive protein (CRP) level. Weil-Felix testing was negative or the OX19 titer was low. The peripheral blood smear (Giemsa stain) showed intracellular pathogens in all four cases. After combined therapy with doxycycline and macrolide antibiotics, all four patients recovered well. The endemic typhus children often come from rural areas. The clinical presentations were atypical, they usually have no headache, but have fever (often Periodic fever) , rash, and pneumonia of varying severity in these four cases

  9. Murine typhus as a cause of Fever in travelers from Tunisia and mediterranean areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angelakis, Emmanouil; Botelho, Elizabeth; Socolovschi, Cristina; Sobas, Chantal Roure; Piketty, Christophe; Parola, Philippe; Raoult, Didier

    2010-01-01

    Travelers are exposed to a variety of health risks in unfamiliar environments and fever is a common problem in patients returning from travel abroad. Rickettsial diseases are increasingly frequently being reported among international travelers. Here we present cases of Rickettsia typhi infection, the agent of murine typhus, that were identified in our laboratory the last year, in travelers from Tunisia. For each patient we tested an acute-phase serum sample and for one patient we tested a convalescent-phase serum sample. IgG and IgM antibody titers were estimated with use of the microimmunofluorescence (MIF) assay. Western blot (WB) assay was performed for all the patients. We identified three cases of murine typhus after a travel in Tunisia. All cases were observed during late summer and early autumn and patients were suffering by persistent fever. None of them presented rash or inoculation eschar. MIF was positive for Rickettsia sp. in the acute-phase serum samples of two patients. In one patient, two acute-phase serum samples were Rickettsia sp. negative whereas a third convalescent-phase serum sample that was obtained 2 weeks after was Rickettsia sp. positive. By WB assay we identified infection by R typhi. A treatment was immediately started and patients became apyretic. In the countries of North Europe, although autochthones cases of murine typhus have not been described, sporadic cases of R typhi infection are identified in travelers who visited murine typhus endemic areas. Murine typhus should be considered in the diagnosis of febrile illness without rash in travelers returning from disease endemic areas, like the south Mediterranean area. © 2010 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  10. Implications of increased susceptibility to predation for management of the sylvatic cycle of Echinococcus multilocularis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vervaeke, V; Davis, S; Leirs, Herwig

    2006-01-01

    The ability to increase the chances that infectious prey are taken by predators is an observed feature of many parasites that rely on one or more predator-prey relationships to complete their life-cycle. In the sylvatic life-cycle of Echinococcus multilocularis - the causative agent of human...

  11. Etiologies of acute undifferentiated fever and clinical prediction of scrub typhus in a non-tropical endemic area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Ho-Chul; Chon, Sung-Bin; Oh, Won Sup; Lee, Dong-Hyun; Lee, Ho-Jin

    2015-02-01

    Scrub typhus usually presents as acute undifferentiated fever. This cross-sectional study included adult patients presenting with acute undifferentiated fever defined as any febrile illness for ≤ 14 days without evidence of localized infection. Scrub typhus cases were defined by an antibody titer of a ≥ fourfold increase in paired sera, a ≥ 1:160 in a single serum using indirect immunofluorescence assay, or a positive result of the immunochromatographic test. Multiple regression analysis identified predictors associated with scrub typhus to develop a prediction rule. Of 250 cases with known etiology of acute undifferentiated fever, influenza (28.0%), hepatitis A (25.2%), and scrub typhus (16.4%) were major causes. A prediction rule for identifying suspected cases of scrub typhus consisted of age ≥ 65 years (two points), recent fieldwork/outdoor activities (one point), onset of illness during an outbreak period (two points), myalgia (one point), and eschar (two points). The c statistic was 0.977 (95% confidence interval = 0.960-0.994). At a cutoff value ≥ 4, the sensitivity and specificity were 92.7% (79.0-98.1%) and 90.9% (86.0-94.3%), respectively. Scrub typhus, the third leading cause of acute undifferentiated fever in our region, can be identified early using the prediction rule. © The American Society of Tropical Medicine and Hygiene.

  12. First finding of melanic sylvatic Triatoma infestans (Hemiptera: Reduviidae) colonies in the Argentine Chaco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos, L A; Piccinali, R V; Berkunsky, I; Kitron, U; Gürtler, R E

    2009-09-01

    Triatoma infestans (Klug), the most important vector of Chagas disease in southern South America, is a highly domiciliated species with well-known sylvatic foci only in the Bolivian Andean valleys and in the Bolivian Chaco, where melanic insects designated as "dark morphs" were found. After the tentative identification of two melanic bugs collected from parrot nests in a forest reserve in the Argentine Chaco as T. infestans, we conducted an intensive search there using mouse-baited sticky traps in summer 2006 and 2007. Four live T. infestans bugs were collected in trees without parrot nests in 288 trap-nights, whereas no bug was collected from inside trees with active parrot nests in 51 trap-nights. To increase bug captures, hollow tree trunks that recently had had Amazona aestiva (Berlepsch) and Aratinga acuticaudata (Vieillot) parrot nests were treated with insecticide fumigant canisters exhibiting strong knockdown power. Four (22%) of 18 trees were positive for T. infestans with a dark phenotype. A fragment of the mitochondrial gene COI of 8 of the 14 triatomine bugs collected was successfully sequenced and confirmed as T. infestans. Most of the bugs were captured from Aspidosperma quebracho-blanco (Schlechter) hollow tree trunks harboring parrot nests. All of the T. infestans collected from the nearest house located at 10 km from the sylvatic foci displayed normal chromatic characters. The repeated finding of T. infestans in sylvatic habitats, albeit at very low density, shows that this species is capable of maintaining viable sylvatic foci in the absence of human hosts and immigration from domestic populations. These are the first confirmed findings of sylvatic T. infestans colonies in Argentina and of dark morphs in the Argentine Chaco.

  13. Determination of cutoff of ELISA and immunofluorescence assay for scrub typhus

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    Nitin Gupta

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: The most common method employed for diagnosis of scrub typhus is serology. It is widely known that demonstration of ≥4-fold rise in titers of antibody in paired sera is required for diagnosis. However, for guidance of initial treatment, there is a need for rapid diagnosis at the time of admission. Therefore, there is a need for standardized region specific cutoff titers at the time of admission. Materials and Methods: A total of 258 patients of all age groups with clinically suspected scrub typhus over a period of 24 months (October 2013-October 2015 were enrolled. Serum samples of these patients were subjected to immunofluorescent antibody (IFA for immunoglobulin M (IgM (Fuller Labs, USA with dilutions of 1:64, 1:128, 1:256, and 1:512. Serum samples of all 258 patients were subjected to IgM ELISA (Inbios Inc., USA. Any patient with response to antibiotics within 48 h accompanied by either presence of an eschar or positivity by polymerase chain reaction was taken as positive. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve was drawn to generate cutoff for these tests. Results: A total of 20 patients were diagnosed as cases of scrub typhus. The ROC curve analysis revealed a cutoff optical density value of 0.87 with sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 94.12%, respectively. ROC curve analysis of IFA revealed sensitivity and specificity of 100% and 93.5%, respectively at 1:64 dilution. Conclusion: Considering cost constraints, centers in and around New Delhi region can use the cutoffs we determined for the diagnosis of scrub typhus.

  14. Differential Pattern of Infection of Sylvatic Nymphs and Domiciliary Adults of Triatoma infestans with Trypanosoma cruzi Genotypes in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacigalupo, Antonella; Segovia, Verónica; García, Alejandro; Botto-Mahan, Carezza; Ortiz, Sylvia; Solari, Aldo; Acuna-Retamar, Mariana; Torres-Pérez, Fernando; Cattan, Pedro E.

    2012-01-01

    In Chile, the main vector of Chagas disease, Triatoma infestans, is under control after insecticide spraying. However, it has been found colonizing wild habitats. This study evaluated Trypanosoma cruzi infection of sylvatic and domiciliary T. infestans and identified their parasite genotypes. The sample studied was composed mainly of T. infestans sylvatic nymphs and domiciliary adults from a semi-urban area with human dwellings under vector control surveillance. Results showed prevalences of 57.7% in nymphs and 68.6% in adults. Hybridization tests showed a major T. cruzi lineage (TcI) circulating in sylvatic (93.3%) and domiciliary (100%) T. infestans. TcII, TcV, and TcVI were also detected, mainly in nymphs, suggesting differential adaptation of T. cruzi lineages among instars. We also discuss the origin of domiciliary individuals of T. infestans and the risk of human infection by triatomines of sylvatic foci that invade houses despite vector control programs. PMID:22802439

  15. Synchrony of sylvatic dengue isolations: a multi-host, multi-vector SIR model of dengue virus transmission in Senegal.

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    Benjamin M Althouse

    Full Text Available Isolations of sylvatic dengue-2 virus from mosquitoes, humans and non-human primates in Senegal show synchronized multi-annual dynamics over the past 50 years. Host demography has been shown to directly affect the period between epidemics in other pathogen systems, therefore, one might expect unsynchronized multi-annual cycles occurring in hosts with dramatically different birth rates and life spans. However, in Senegal, we observe a single synchronized eight-year cycle across all vector species, suggesting synchronized dynamics in all vertebrate hosts. In the current study, we aim to explore two specific hypotheses: 1 primates with different demographics will experience outbreaks of dengue at different periodicities when observed as isolated systems, and that coupling of these subsystems through mosquito biting will act to synchronize incidence; and 2 the eight-year periodicity of isolations observed across multiple primate species is the result of long-term cycling in population immunity in the host populations. To test these hypotheses, we develop a multi-host, multi-vector Susceptible, Infected, Removed (SIR model to explore the effects of coupling multiple host-vector systems of dengue virus transmission through cross-species biting rates. We find that under small amounts of coupling, incidence in the host species synchronize. Long-period multi-annual dynamics are observed only when prevalence in troughs reaches vanishingly small levels (< 10(-10, suggesting that these dynamics are inconsistent with sustained transmission in this setting, but are consistent with local dengue virus extinctions followed by reintroductions. Inclusion of a constant introduction of infectious individuals into the system causes the multi-annual periods to shrink, while the effects of coupling remain the same. Inclusion of a stochastic rate of introduction allows for multi-annual periods at a cost of reduced synchrony. Thus, we conclude that the eight-year period

  16. Clinical significance of hypoalbuminemia in outcome of patients with scrub typhus

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    Kwon Keun-Sang

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background This study was designed to investigate the clinical significance of hypoalbuminemia as a marker of severity and mortality in patients with Scrub typhus. Methods The patients with scrub typhus were divided into two groups based on the serum albumin levels; Group I (serum albumin Results Of the total 246 patients who underwent the study, 84 patients (34.1% were categorized as Group I and 162 patients were (65.9% as Group II. Group I showed significantly higher incidence of confusion (24.6% vs. 5.3%, p p = 0.002, pleural effusion (22.8% vs. 11.1%, p = 0.03, arrhythmia (12.3% vs. 2.6%, p = 0.008 and non-oliguric acute renal failure (40.4% vs. 11.1%, p p p = 0.012, and higher hospital cost compared to Group II. Conclusions This study showed hypoalbuminemia in scrub typhus was closely related to the frequency of various complication, longer hospital stay, consequently the higher medical cost, necessitating more efficient management of patients, including medical resources.

  17. ROLE OF ECOLOGICAL DISTURBANCES IN EMERGENCE OF SYLVATIC ZOONOSES AND NIDAL DISEASES

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    Shivaji Bhattacharya

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Influence of human civilization and disturbance of ecology has an important role on the evolution and emergence of new sylvatic zoonoses as well as nidal diseases.Proper study of different causes and mechanisms of escape of disease agents from their natural boundaries of niche and taking of suitable biosecurity measures for those diseases should be ensured prior to any developmental and welfare activities of human which are responsible for any kind of ecological disturbance.

  18. Sylvatic population of Triatoma infestans from the Bolivian Chaco: from field collection to characterization

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    François Noireau

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available A sylvatic Triatoma infestans DM (dark morph population detected in the Bolivian Chaco was characterized and compared with various domestic ones. The degree of differentiation of DM was clearly within the T. infestans intra-specific level. Nevertheless marked chromatic and morphometric differences as well as differences in antennal pattern, chromosome banding and randomly amplified polymorphic DNA support the hypothesis of a distinct population. Continuous exchange of insects between wild and domestic habitats seems unlikely in the Chaco.

  19. Entomological investigation of a sylvatic yellow fever area in São Paulo State, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camargo-Neves, Vera L F de; Poletto, Daniela W; Rodas, Lílian A C; Pachioli, Márcio L; Cardoso, Rubens P; Scandar, Sirle A S; Sampaio, Susy M P; Koyanagui, Paulo H; Botti, Mauricio V; Mucci, Luis F; Gomes, Almério de C

    2005-01-01

    Following reports of two autochthonous cases of sylvatic yellow fever in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2000, entomological surveys were conducted with the objective of verifying the occurrence of vector species in forest environments close to or associated with riparian areas located in the western and northwestern regions of the State. Culicidae were captured in 39 sites distributed in four regions. Haemagogus leucocelaenus and Aedes albopictus were the most abundant species and were captured in all the regions studied. H. leucocelaenus was the most abundant species in the municipalities of Santa Albertina and Ouroeste, where the two cases of sylvatic yellow fever had been reported. Mosquitoes from the janthinomys/capricornii group were only found at eight sites in the São José do Rio Preto region, while Sabethes chloropterus was found at one site in Ribeirão Preto. H. leucocelaenus showed its capacity to adapt to a secondary and degraded environment. Our results indicate a wide receptive area for yellow fever transmission in the State of São Paulo, with particular emphasis on the possibility of H. leucocelaenus being involved in the maintenance of this sylvatic focus of the disease.

  20. Dissemination of Orientia tsutsugamushi and inflammatory responses in a murine model of scrub typhus.

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    Christian A Keller

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Central aspects in the pathogenesis of scrub typhus, an infection caused by Orientia (O. tsutsugamushi, have remained obscure. Its organ and cellular tropism are poorly understood. The purpose of this study was to analyze the kinetics of bacterial dissemination and associated inflammatory responses in infected tissues in an experimental scrub typhus mouse model, following infection with the human pathogenic strain Karp. We provide a thorough analysis of O. tsutsugamushi infection in inbred Balb/c mice using footpad inoculation, which is close to the natural way of infection. By a novel, highly sensitive qPCR targeting the multi copy traD genes, we quantitatively monitored the spread of O. tsutsugamushi Karp from the skin inoculation site via the regional lymph node to the internal target organs. The highest bacterial loads were measured in the lung. Using confocal imaging, we also detected O. tsutsugamushi at the single cell level in the lung and found a predominant macrophage rather than endothelial localization. Immunohistochemical analysis of infiltrates in lung and brain revealed differently composed lesions with specific localizations: iNOS-expressing macrophages were frequent in infiltrative parenchymal noduli, but uncommon in perivascular lesions within these organs. Quantitative analysis of the macrophage response by immunohistochemistry in liver, heart, lung and brain demonstrated an early onset of macrophage activation in the liver. Serum levels of interferon (IFN-γ were increased during the acute infection, and we showed that IFN-γ contributed to iNOS-dependent bacterial growth control. Our data show that upon inoculation to the skin, O. tsutsugamushi spreads systemically to a large number of organs and gives rise to organ-specific inflammation patterns. The findings suggest an essential role for the lung in the pathogenesis of scrub typhus. The model will allow detailed studies on host-pathogen interaction and provide further

  1. Validation of a clinical risk-scoring algorithm for severe scrub typhus

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    Sriwongpan P

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Pamornsri Sriwongpan,1,2 Jayanton Patumanond,3 Pornsuda Krittigamas,4 Hutsaya Tantipong,5 Chamaiporn Tawichasri,6 Sirianong Namwongprom1,7 1Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, 2Department of Social Medicine, Chiangrai Prachanukroh Hospital, Chiang Rai, 3Clinical Epidemiology Program, Faculty of Medicine, Thammasat University, Bangkok, 4Department of General Pediatrics, Nakornping Hospital, Chiang Mai, 5Department of Medicine, Chonburi Hospital, Chonburi, 6Clinical Epidemiology Society at Chiang Mai, Chiang Mai, 7Department of Radiology, Faculty of Medicine, Chiang Mai University, Chiang Mai, Thailand Objective: The aim of the study reported here was to validate the risk-scoring algorithm for prognostication of scrub typhus severity. Methods: The risk-scoring algorithm for prognostication of scrub typhus severity developed earlier from two general hospitals in Thailand was validated using an independent dataset of scrub typhus patients in one of the hospitals from a few years later. The predictive performances of the two datasets were compared by analysis of the area under the receiver-operating characteristic curve (AuROC. Classification of patients into non-severe, severe, and fatal cases was also compared. Results: The proportions of non-severe, severe, and fatal patients by operational definition were similar between the development and validation datasets. Patient, clinical, and laboratory profiles were also similar. Scores were similar in both datasets, both in terms of discriminating non-severe from severe and fatal patients (AuROC =88.74% versus 91.48%, P=0.324, and in discriminating fatal from severe and non-severe patients (AuROC =88.66% versus 91.22%, P=0.407. Over- and under-estimations were similar and were clinically acceptable. Conclusion: The previously developed risk-scoring algorithm for prognostication of scrub typhus severity performed similarly with the validation data and

  2. Noneruptive fever revealing murine typhus in a traveler returning from Tunisia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gastellier, Laura; Lanternier, Fanny; Renvoisé, Aurélie; Rivière, Sébastien; Raoult, Didier; Lortholary, Olivier; Lecuit, Marc

    2015-01-01

    Rickettsia species are increasingly being recognized as a cause of infection among returning travelers. Murine typhus (MT) was mistakenly thought to have disappeared in the 1970s in Tunisia, yet recent serological data show that Rickettsia typhi, the causative agent of MT, still circulates in the Tunisian population. We report here a case of MT in a woman returning from Tunisia and hospitalized in France. Her presentation was nonspecific, with acute noneruptive fever. Diagnosis was confirmed by cross-adsorption and immunoblotting. Clinicians taking care of returning travelers with fever should be aware of MT, and know how to diagnose and treat it. © 2014 International Society of Travel Medicine.

  3. Modeling Epidemic Network Failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents the implementation of a failure propagation model for transport networks when multiple failures occur resulting in an epidemic. We model the Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model and validate it by comparing it to analytical solutions. Furthermore, we evaluate...... to evaluate multiple epidemic scenarios in various network types....

  4. Inter-relation of sylvatic and domestic transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi in areas with and without domestic vectorial transmission in Minas Gerais, Brazil

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    L. Diotaiuti

    1995-08-01

    Full Text Available During the period 1980-1986, we captured triatomine bugs and mammalian reservoir hosts from sylvatic and domestic situations in different municipalities of the State of Minas Gerais. Trypanosoma cruzi was isolated from captured bugs, mammals and patients. After cultivation in LIT medium, the electrophoretic enzyme profiles were determined. We obtained atotal of 32 parasite isolates from regions with active domestic transmission, and 24 isolates form areas under control. For the first areas the results suggest introduction of T. cruzi from sylvatic habitats, through incursion of infected opossums and/or sylvatic T. sordida, which appears to have given rise to at least one acute human infection. Of particular interest is the finding of sylvatic opossums and a T. sordida nymph infected with ZB, that could indicate return of parasites from chronic human infections to sylvatic transmission cycles. For the areas under control we also interpret the results as interaction between sylvatic and domestic cycles of transmission, here through the invasion of houses by bugs carrying the Z1 zymodeme from the sylvatic environment. The Multivariate Correspondence Analysis gives a spatial description between the different parasite isolates and confirms the existence of a bridge in the opposite direction in the region with active vectorial transmission including the exporting of Z2 through the peridomestic environment into the sylvatic cycle. For the others areas this bridge corresponds especially to Panstrongylus megistus, importing Z1 into the domestic environment.

  5. Hepatitis E Virus Induced Acute Liver Failure with Scrub Typhus Coinfection in a Pregnant Woman.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, Nipun; Sharma, Megha; Biswal, Manisha; Taneja, Sunil; Batra, Nitya; Kumar, Abhay; Dhiman, Radha K

    2017-06-01

    Coinfections contribute significantly to diagnostic challenges of acute febrile illnesses, especially in endemic areas. The confusion caused by overlapping clinical features impedes timely management. Herein, we report an unusual, previously unreported case of a pregnant woman suffering from a coinfection of scrub typhus and hepatitis E virus. A 25-year-old, 31-week pregnant woman presented with jaundice for 5 days and altered sensorium for 2 days. She had features of both viral acute liver failure (ALF) and tropical infections mimicking ALF, including hyperbilirubinemia, coagulopathy, anemia, thrombocytopenia, intravascular hemolysis, and hepatosplenomegaly. Etiological workup revealed rare coinfection of hepatitis E and scrub typhus. Despite all supportive measures, the patient succumbed to her illness (i.e., absent brainstem reflexes and intracranial bleed secondary to coagulopathy) and had poor fetal outcome, which resulted in stillbirth. ALF in a pregnant woman is a medical and obstetric emergency. It can result from varied etiologies that though differ in their incidence, mode of occurrence, and pregnancy outcome, can clinically masquerade as each other, causing diagnostic dilemma. This unusual case report highlights the significance of keeping all such possibilities in mind while managing a pregnant woman with ALF, especially in a country like India where maternal and perinatal mortality rates, the core indicators of national health, are still among the highest in the world.

  6. High-resolution computed tomography findings of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection: comparison with scrub typhus

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jo, Bang Sil; Lee, In Jae; Lee, Kwanseop [Dept. of Radiology, Hallym Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)], E-mail: ijlee2003@medimail.co.kr; Im, Hyoung June [Dept. of Occupational Medicine, Hallym Univ. College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2012-07-15

    Background. Swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection and scrub typhus, also known as tsutsugamushi disease can manifest as acute respiratory illnesses, particularly during the late fall or early winter, with similar radiographic findings, such as a predominance of ground-glass opacity (GGO). Purpose. To differentiate S-OIV infection from scrub typhus using high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Material and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed the HRCT findings of 14 patients with S-OIV infection and 10 patients with scrub typhus. We assessed the location, cross-sectional distribution, and the presence of a peribronchovascular distribution of GGO and consolidations on HRCT. We also assessed the presence of interlobular septal thickening, bronchial wall thickening, pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, pleural effusion, and mediastinal or axillary lymph node enlargement. Results. Scrub typhus was more common than S-OIV in elderly patients (P < 0.001). The monthly incidences of S-OIV and scrub typhus infection reached a peak between October and November. About 86% of S-OIV patients and 80% of scrub typhus patients presented with GGO. About 67% of the GGO lesions in S-OIV had a peribronchovascular distribution, but this was absent in scrub typhus (P = 0.005). Consolidation (93% vs. 10%, P < 0.001) and bronchial wall thickening (43% vs. 0%, P = 0.024) were more frequent in S-OIV infection than scrub typhus. Interlobular septal thickening (90% vs. 36%, P = 0.013) and axillary lymphadenopathy (90% vs. 0%, P < 0.001) were more common in scrub typhus than S-OIV infection. Conclusion. There was considerable overlap in HRCT findings between S-OIV infection and scrub typhus. However, S-OIV showed a distinctive peribronchovascular distribution of GGO lesions. Consolidation and bronchial wall thickening were seen more frequently in S-OIV infection, whereas interlobular septal thickening and axillary lymphadenopathy were more common in scrub typhus. Thus, CT could

  7. High-resolution computed tomography findings of swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection: comparison with scrub typhus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jo, Bang Sil; Lee, In Jae; Lee, Kwanseop; Im, Hyoung June

    2012-01-01

    Background. Swine-origin influenza A (H1N1) virus (S-OIV) infection and scrub typhus, also known as tsutsugamushi disease can manifest as acute respiratory illnesses, particularly during the late fall or early winter, with similar radiographic findings, such as a predominance of ground-glass opacity (GGO). Purpose. To differentiate S-OIV infection from scrub typhus using high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT). Material and Methods. We retrospectively reviewed the HRCT findings of 14 patients with S-OIV infection and 10 patients with scrub typhus. We assessed the location, cross-sectional distribution, and the presence of a peribronchovascular distribution of GGO and consolidations on HRCT. We also assessed the presence of interlobular septal thickening, bronchial wall thickening, pneumothorax, pneumomediastinum, pleural effusion, and mediastinal or axillary lymph node enlargement. Results. Scrub typhus was more common than S-OIV in elderly patients (P < 0.001). The monthly incidences of S-OIV and scrub typhus infection reached a peak between October and November. About 86% of S-OIV patients and 80% of scrub typhus patients presented with GGO. About 67% of the GGO lesions in S-OIV had a peribronchovascular distribution, but this was absent in scrub typhus (P = 0.005). Consolidation (93% vs. 10%, P < 0.001) and bronchial wall thickening (43% vs. 0%, P = 0.024) were more frequent in S-OIV infection than scrub typhus. Interlobular septal thickening (90% vs. 36%, P = 0.013) and axillary lymphadenopathy (90% vs. 0%, P < 0.001) were more common in scrub typhus than S-OIV infection. Conclusion. There was considerable overlap in HRCT findings between S-OIV infection and scrub typhus. However, S-OIV showed a distinctive peribronchovascular distribution of GGO lesions. Consolidation and bronchial wall thickening were seen more frequently in S-OIV infection, whereas interlobular septal thickening and axillary lymphadenopathy were more common in scrub typhus. Thus, CT could

  8. The Epidemiology and Characteristics of Q fever and Co-infections with Scrub Typhus, Murine Typhus or Leptospirosis in Taiwan: A Nationwide Database Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lai, C-H; Sun, W; Lee, C-H; Lin, J-N; Liao, M-H; Liu, S-S; Chang, T-Y; Tsai, K-F; Chang, Y-C; Lin, H-H; Chen, Y-H

    2017-11-01

    Q fever (QF) is a worldwide zoonosis associated with outbreaks. Only a few nationwide studies regarding the surveillance and epidemiology of human QF have been reported. Although QF is endemic in Taiwan, a nationwide database investigation of the epidemiology and characteristics of QF and its associations with scrub typhus (ST), murine typhus (MT) and leptospirosis (LS) has never been reported. We analysed nationwide databases of suspected QF, ST, MT and LS cases from October 2007 to December 2014 obtained from the Centers for Disease Control, Taiwan. A total of 468 (4.2%) QF cases were identified among 11 109 suspected QF cases. QF cases were mainly distributed in the southern and Kaohsiung-Pingtung regions but rarely in the eastern region. Compared to non-QF cases, QF cases had significantly higher percentages of males (88.7 versus 66.2%) and high-risk occupations (farming, animal husbandry or veterinary medicine) (16.2 versus 10.5%). But the percentages of specific animal contact, including cattle (0.6 versus 0.8%) and goats (0.9 versus 1.0%), were low in both. The majority of suspected QF cases (89.4%) were simultaneously suspected with ST, MT or LS, and the combinations of suspected diseases differed between regions. The number of suspected QF cases from the eastern region decreased since 2009, which was not observed in other regions. A total of 1420 (12.8%) cases had confirmed diseases, including QF (453, 4.1%), QF+ST (7, 0.06%), QF+MT (4, 0.04%), QF+LS (4, 0.04%), MT (186, 1.7%), ST (545, 4.9%), ST+LS (11, 0.1%) and LS (210, 1.9%). Compared to cases of unknown disease, QF cases had larger percentages of high-risk occupations (16.2 versus 9.6%) but similar histories of animal contact (29.8 versus 25.1%). QF is an endemic disease in southern Taiwan. It is difficult to differentiate QF from ST, MT or LS only by high-risk occupations and history of animal contact, and co-infection of QF with these diseases should be considered. © 2016 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  9. Hepatitis E Virus in Sylvatic and Captive Wild Boar from Portugal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesquita, J R; Oliveira, R M S; Coelho, C; Vieira-Pinto, M; Nascimento, M S J

    2016-10-01

    Hepatitis E virus (HEV) is a zoonotic agent today considered a major Public Health issue in industrialized countries. HEV strains belonging to zoonotic genotype 3 are widely present in swine, being today considered important reservoirs for human disease. Unlike in swine, only scarce data are available on the circulation of HEV in wild boar. This study describes the detection and molecular characterization of HEV in livers from sylvatic wild boar hunted in Portugal and destined for consumption. Additionally, the detection of HEV in stools of a confined wild boar population also destined for consumption is also described. A total of 80 liver samples collected during the hunting season of 2011/2012 and 40 stools collected in February 2012 from a wild boar breeding farm in Portugal were tested by a nested broad-spectrum RT-PCR assay targeting open reading frame (ORF) 1. Twenty livers (25.0%) and 4 stools (10%) were positive for HEV. Phylogenetic analysis showed that all strains clustered with sequences classified as HEV genotype 3 subgenotype e. To our knowledge, this is the first report documenting the occurrence and molecular analysis of HEV in sylvatic and captive wild boar destined for human consumption in Portugal. This report demonstrates for the first time the circulation of HEV in wildlife reservoirs of Portugal adding knowledge to the epidemiology of HEV in wild boar populations. © 2014 Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  10. High prevalence of Trichinella spp. in sylvatic carnivore mammals of Latvia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deksne, Gunita; Segliņa, Zanda; Jahundoviča, Inese; Esīte, Zanda; Bakasejevs, Eduards; Bagrade, Guna; Keidāne, Dace; Interisano, Marilena; Marucci, Gianluca; Tonanzi, Daniele; Pozio, Edoardo; Kirjušina, Muza

    2016-11-15

    Trichinella spp. are zoonotic parasites transmitted to humans by the consumption of raw or insufficiently cooked meat of different animal species. Carnivore mammals are important reservoir hosts of these nematodes. The aims of this work were to establish the prevalence of Trichinella spp. and infection intensity in sylvatic carnivore mammals of Latvia, to identify the etiological agents at the species level and their circulation in the Latvian regions. From 2010 to 2014, muscle samples were collected from 1286 hunted animals (2 European badgers, 137 pine martens, 24 stone martens, 4 golden jackals, 394 raccoon dogs, 668 red foxes, 23 grey wolves, and 34 Eurasian lynxes). Trichinella spp. larvae were isolated by muscle digestion. Overall, 633 animals (49.2%; 95% CI 46.5%-52.0%) belonging to all the eight investigated species, tested positive for Trichinella spp. larvae. Trichinella britovi was the most common species (94.0%; 95% CI 91.7%-95.7%). Trichinella nativa was detected in 30 animals as single (6, 1.1%; 95% CI 0.4%-2.3%) or mixed infection (24, 4.4%; 95% CI 2.9%-6.4%) with T. britovi. Trichinella spiralis was detected in only three animals as mixed infection with T. britovi. The high prevalence of Trichinella spp. infection in sylvatic carnivore mammals suggests that they are good indicators for the risk assessment of Trichinella spp. in Latvia. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  11. Isolation and Characterization of Orientia tsutsugamushi from Rodents Captured following a Scrub Typhus Outbreak at a Military Training Base, Bothong District, Chonburi Province, Central Thailand

    OpenAIRE

    Rodkvamtook, Wuttikon; Ruang-areerate, Toon; Gaywee, Jariyanart; Richards, Allen L.; Jeamwattanalert, Pimmada; Bodhidatta, Dharadhida; Sangjun, Noppadon; Prasartvit, Anchana; Jatisatienr, Araya; Jatisatienr, Chaiwat

    2011-01-01

    Orientia tsutsugamushi, an obligate intracellular Gram-negative bacterium, is the causative agent of scrub typhus, a vector-borne disease transmitted by infected chiggers (trombiculid mite larvae). In 2002, an outbreak of scrub typhus occurred among Royal Thai Army troops during the annual field training at a military base in Bothong district, Chonburi province, central Thailand. This report describes the outbreak investigation including its transmission cycle. Results showed that 33.9% of 17...

  12. Dynamic behavior of sylvatic yellow fever in Brazil (1954-2008

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fernando Portela Câmara

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available INTRODUCTION: Sylvatic yellow fever (SYF is enzootic in Brazil, causing periodic outbreaks in humans living near forest borders or in rural areas. In this study, the cycling patterns of this arbovirosis were analyzed. METHODS: Spectral Fourier analysis was used to capture the periodicity patterns of SYF in time series. RESULTS: SYF outbreaks have not increased in frequency, only in the number of cases. There are two dominant cycles in SYF outbreaks, a seven year cycle for the central-western region and a 14 year cycle for the northern region. Most of the variance was concentrated in the central-western region and dominated the entire endemic region. CONCLUSIONS: The seven year cycle is predominant in the endemic region of the disease due the greater contribution of variance in the central-western region; however, it was possible identify a 14 cycle that governs SYF outbreaks in the northern region. No periodicities were identified for the remaining geographical regions.

  13. Scrub typhus meningoencephalitis, a diagnostic challenge for clinicians: A hospital based study from North-East India

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M D Jamil

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Central nervous system (CNS involvement is a known complication of scrub typhus which range from mild meningitis to frank meninigoencephalitis.Aims and objectives: To study the clinical feature, laboratory parameters and response to treatment of scrub typhus meningitis/meningoencephalitis.Methods and Materials: This is a hospital based prospective observational study from North Eastern India. Diagnosis was based on clinical features and positive serological test (Weil's Felix test and IgM antibody card test.Results: 13 patients of scrub typhus with features of meningitis/meningoencephalitis were included. The mean duration of fever before presentation was 5.61±3.08 days and 4 (30.76 % patients had eschar. Altered sensorium, headache, seizure and meningeal sign were present in 13 (100%, 13 (100%, 6 (46.15% and 10 (76.92% patients respectively. Mean CSF protein, glucose and Adenosine deaminase was 152.16±16.88mg/dl, 55.23±21.7mg/dl, and 16.98±7.37U/L respectively. Mean total count of CSF leukocyte and lymphocyte percentage was 46.07±131 cell/cumm and 98.66±3.09% respectively. Tablet doxycycline with or without injection azithromycin was used and that shows good response 15.38% of patients died and all of them had multi organ dysfunction. Conclusion: Meningoencephalitis is a common manifestation of scrub typhus and diagnosis requires high degree of clinical suspicion which if diagnosed early and specific treatment started, patients usually recover completely with few complications.

  14. A suburban focus of endemic typhus in Los Angeles County: association with seropositive domestic cats and opossums.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sorvillo, F J; Gondo, B; Emmons, R; Ryan, P; Waterman, S H; Tilzer, A; Andersen, E M; Murray, R A; Barr, R

    1993-02-01

    Thirty-three cases of locally acquired murine typhus were reported in Los Angeles County residents from May 1984 through February 1988. Only eight cases were reported over the previous 20-year period. Thirty (91%) cases resided within a suburban area encompassing approximately 50 km2 in northcentral Los Angeles or had contact with an animal from this area. Serologic testing (complement fixation and indirect fluorescent antibody) of selected animals in close association with human cases revealed a high prevalence of seropositivity among domestic cats and opossums. Nine (90%) of 10 resident cats tested had demonstrable antibody titers compared with none (0%) of 20 cats from a control area (P commensal rodents, and the classic vector of murine typhus, Xenopsylla cheopis, was not found. Ectoparasite indices form seropositive opossums revealed heavy infestations with the cat flea, Ctenocephalides felis (mean flea count = 104.7), a species that readily bites humans. These data provide evidence that a suburban focus of murine typhus exists in Los Angeles that differs substantially from the classic transmission cycle, and that cats, opossums and C. felis may play an important role in the occurrence of human cases.

  15. Morphometric Wings Similarity among Sylvatic and Domestic Populations of Triatoma infestans(Hemiptera: Reduviidae) from the Gran Chaco Region of Paraguay.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Arias, Antonieta Rojas; Carbajal de la Fuente, Ana Laura; Gómez, Ana; Cecere, María Carla; Rolón, Miriam; Gómez, María Celeste Vega; Villalba, Cesia

    2017-08-01

    Despite sustained efforts for eliminating Triatoma infestans , reinfestation still persists in large part of the endemic area of Chagas disease from the Gran Chaco region. Sylvatic T. infestans populations seem to threat success of control programs of domestic T. infestans . In this study, we analyze whether T. infestans collected after a community-wide spraying were survivors or were immigrants from elsewhere using geometric morphometric tools. We used 101 right wings of female T. infestans captured before and after intervention program carried out in 12 de Junio and Casuarina, villages from Paraguayan Chaco, and in Puerto Casado during presprayed collection. There were no significant differences in wing size of domestic T. infestans between pre- and postspraying populations, and between domestic and sylvatic ones. When shape variables originating from postintervention individuals from 12 de Junio were introduced one by one into a discriminant analysis, the greatest weight (53%) was allocated to the sylvatic group. Furthermore, from the prespraying population, 25% were reallocated as postintervention individuals. Only 11% of the insects were reassigned to other groups Puerto Casado and Casuarina. These results suggest that postspraying individuals appear to have different origins. Half of the postspraying individuals from 12 de Junio were similar to the sylvatic ones and 25% of these were similar to those captured in the prespraying period. This remarkable morphometric wings similarity between sylvatic and domestic populations is new evidence suggesting that they could be highly related to each other in the Paraguayan Chaco; human-fed bugs from sylvatic area also support this.

  16. Understanding the Opioid Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Search Form Controls Cancel Submit Search The CDC Opioid Overdose Note: Javascript is disabled or is not ... message, please visit this page: About CDC.gov . Opioid Overdose Opioid Basics Understanding the Epidemic Commonly Used ...

  17. The Diversity and Geographical Structure of Orientia tsutsugamushi Strains from Scrub Typhus Patients in Laos.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phetsouvanh, Rattanaphone; Sonthayanon, Piengchan; Pukrittayakamee, Sasithon; Paris, Daniel H; Newton, Paul N; Feil, Edward J; Day, Nicholas P J

    2015-01-01

    Orientia tsutsugamushi is the causative agent of scrub typhus, a disease transmitted by Leptotrombidium mites which is responsible for a severe and under-reported public health burden throughout Southeast Asia. Here we use multilocus sequence typing (MLST) to characterize 74 clinical isolates from three geographic locations in the Lao PDR (Laos), and compare them with isolates described from Udon Thani, northeast Thailand. The data confirm high levels of diversity and recombination within the natural O. tsutsugamushi population, and a rate of mixed infection of ~8%. We compared the relationships and geographical structuring of the strains and populations using allele based approaches (eBURST), phylogenetic approaches, and by calculating F-statistics (FST). These analyses all point towards low levels of population differentiation between isolates from Vientiane and Udon Thani, cities which straddle the Mekong River which defines the Lao/Thai border, but with a very distinct population in Salavan, southern Laos. These data highlight how land use, as well as the movement of hosts and vectors, may impact on the epidemiology of zoonotic infections.

  18. Seasonal and environmental determinants of leptospirosis and scrub typhus in small mammals captured at a U.S. military training site (Dagmar North), Republic of Korea, 2001-2004.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payne, Kevin S; Klein, Terry A; Otto, Jean L; Kim, Heung-Chul; Chong, Sung-Tae; Ha, Si Jung; Gu, Se Hun; Jeong, Ji Hae; Baek, Luck Ju; Song, Jin-Won

    2009-10-01

    This study sought to identify seasonal and environmental determinants of scrub typhus, murine typhus, and leptospirosis in small mammals trapped at Dagmar North training area, Gyeonggi Province, South Korea. Small mammals received titer assays to the aforementioned diseases. Logistic regression analyses were conducted to determine whether associations existed between risk of small-mammal infection and independent variables such as season of capture, habitat, small-mammal species, and sex. Murine typhus was not detected among the animals assayed. Risk of scrub typhus infection was associated with season, habitat, and small-mammal species. Risk of leptospirosis infection was associated with season and habitat. These findings indicate determinants of infection exist for scrub typhus and leptospirosis at this training site. This information can be used for developing appropriate preventive medicine plans and coordinating troop activity during periods of reduced exposure decreasing the likelihood of disease transmission to humans.

  19. A rapid field test for sylvatic plague exposure in wild animals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Rachel C.; Hudak, Robert; Mondesire, Roy; Baeten, Laurie A.; Russell, Robin E.; Rocke, Tonie E.

    2014-01-01

    Plague surveillance is routinely conducted to predict future epizootics in wildlife and exposure risk for humans. The most common surveillance method for sylvatic plague is detection of antibodies to Yersinia pestis F1 capsular antigen in sentinel animals, such as coyotes (Canis latrans). Current serologic tests for Y. pestis, hemagglutination (HA) test and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), are expensive and labor intensive. To address this need, we developed a complete lateral flow device for the detection of specific antibodies to Y. pestis F1 and V antigens. Our test detected anti-F1 and anti-V antibodies in serum and Nobuto filter paper samples from coyotes, and in serum samples from prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), lynx (Lynx canadensis), and black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes). Comparison of cassette results for anti-F1 and anti-V antibodies with results of ELISA or HA tests showed correlations ranging from 0.68 to 0.98. This device provides an affordable, user-friendly tool that may be useful in plague surveillance programs and as a research tool.

  20. Factors influencing uptake of sylvatic plague vaccine baits by prairie dogs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Rachel C.; Russell, Robin E.; Richgels, Katherine; Tripp, Daniel W.; Matchett, Marc R.; Biggins, Dean E.; Rocke, Tonie E.

    2017-01-01

    Sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) is a virally vectored bait-delivered vaccine expressing Yersinia pestis antigens that can protect prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) from plague and has potential utility as a management tool. In a large-scale 3-year field trial, SPV-laden baits containing the biomarker rhodamine B (used to determine bait consumption) were distributed annually at a rate of approximately 100–125 baits/hectare along transects at 58 plots encompassing the geographic ranges of four species of prairie dogs. We assessed site- and individual-level factors related to bait uptake in prairie dogs to determine which were associated with bait uptake rates. Overall bait uptake for 7820 prairie dogs sampled was 70% (95% C.I. 69.9–72.0). Factors influencing bait uptake rates by prairie dogs varied by species, however, in general, heavier animals had greater bait uptake rates. Vegetation quality and day of baiting influenced this relationship for black-tailed, Gunnison’s, and Utah prairie dogs. For these species, baiting later in the season, when normalized difference vegetation indices (a measure of green vegetation density) are lower, improves bait uptake by smaller animals. Consideration of these factors can aid in the development of species-specific SPV baiting strategies that maximize bait uptake and subsequent immunization of prairie dogs against plague.

  1. Sylvatic plague vaccine: A new tool for conservation of threatened and endangered species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Rachel C.; Osorio, Jorge E.; Bunck, Christine M.; Rocke, Tonie E.

    2012-01-01

    Plague, a disease caused by Yersinia pestis introduced into North America about 100 years ago, is devastating to prairie dogs and the highly endangered black-footed ferret. Current attempts to control plague in these species have historically relied on insecticidal dusting of prairie dog burrows to kill the fleas that spread the disease. Although successful in curtailing outbreaks in most instances, this method of plague control has significant limitations. Alternative approaches to plague management are being tested, including vaccination. Currently, all black-footed ferret kits released for reintroduction are vaccinated against plague with an injectable protein vaccine, and even wild-born kits are captured and vaccinated at some locations. In addition, a novel, virally vectored, oral vaccine to prevent plague in wild prairie dogs has been developed and will soon be tested as an alternative, preemptive management tool. If demonstrated to be successful, oral vaccination of selected prairie dog populations could decrease the occurrence of plague epizootics in key locations, thereby reducing the source of bacteria while avoiding the indiscriminate environmental effects of dusting. Just as rabies in wild carnivores has largely been controlled through an active surveillance and oral vaccination program, we believe an integrated plague management strategy would be similarly enhanced with the addition of a cost-effective, bait-delivered, sylvatic plague vaccine for prairie dogs. Control of plague in prairie dogs, and potentially other rodents, would significantly advance prairie dog conservation and black-footed ferret recovery.

  2. Sylvatic plague reduces genetic variability in black-tailed prairie dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trudeau, Kristie M; Britten, Hugh B; Restani, Marco

    2004-04-01

    Small, isolated populations are vulnerable to loss of genetic diversity through in-breeding and genetic drift. Sylvatic plague due to infection by the bacterium Yersinia pestis caused an epizootic in the early 1990s resullting in declines and extirpations of many black-tailed prairie dog (Cynomys ludovicianus) colonies in north-central Montana, USA. Plague-induced population bottlenecks may contribute to significant reductions in genetic variability. In contrast, gene flow maintains genetic variability within colonies. We investigated the impacts of the plague epizootic and distance to nearest colony on levels of genetic variability in six prairie dog colonies sampled between June 1999 and July 2001 using 24 variable randomly amplified polymorphic DNA (RAPD) markers. Number of effective alleles per locus (n(e)) and gene diversity (h) were significantly decreased in the three colonies affected by plague that were recovering from the resulting bottlenecks compared with the three colonies that did not experience plague. Genetic variability was not significantly affected by geographic distance between colonies. The majority of variance in gene fieqnencies was found within prairie clog colonies. Conservation of genetic variability in black-tailed prairie dogs will require the preservation of both large and small colony complexes and the gene flow amonog them.

  3. A rapid field test for sylvatic plague exposure in wild animals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Rachel C; Hudak, Robert; Mondesire, Roy; Baeten, Laurie A; Russell, Robin E; Rocke, Tonie E

    2014-04-01

    Plague surveillance is routinely conducted to predict future epizootics in wildlife and exposure risk for humans. The most common surveillance method for sylvatic plague is detection of antibodies to Yersinia pestis F1 capsular antigen in sentinel animals, such as coyotes (Canis latrans). Current serologic tests for Y. pestis, hemagglutination (HA) test and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA), are expensive and labor intensive. To address this need, we developed a complete lateral flow device for the detection of specific antibodies to Y. pestis F1 and V antigens. Our test detected anti-F1 and anti-V antibodies in serum and Nobuto filter paper samples from coyotes, and in serum samples from prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus), lynx (Lynx canadensis), and black-footed ferrets (Mustela nigripes). Comparison of cassette results for anti-F1 and anti-V antibodies with results of ELISA or HA tests showed correlations ranging from 0.68 to 0.98. This device provides an affordable, user-friendly tool that may be useful in plague surveillance programs and as a research tool.

  4. Factors Influencing Uptake of Sylvatic Plague Vaccine Baits by Prairie Dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Rachel C; Russell, Robin E; Richgels, Katherine L D; Tripp, Daniel W; Matchett, Marc R; Biggins, Dean E; Rocke, Tonie E

    2017-11-20

    Sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) is a virally vectored bait-delivered vaccine expressing Yersinia pestis antigens that can protect prairie dogs (Cynomys spp.) from plague and has potential utility as a management tool. In a large-scale 3-year field trial, SPV-laden baits containing the biomarker rhodamine B (used to determine bait consumption) were distributed annually at a rate of approximately 100-125 baits/hectare along transects at 58 plots encompassing the geographic ranges of four species of prairie dogs. We assessed site- and individual-level factors related to bait uptake in prairie dogs to determine which were associated with bait uptake rates. Overall bait uptake for 7820 prairie dogs sampled was 70% (95% C.I. 69.9-72.0). Factors influencing bait uptake rates by prairie dogs varied by species, however, in general, heavier animals had greater bait uptake rates. Vegetation quality and day of baiting influenced this relationship for black-tailed, Gunnison's, and Utah prairie dogs. For these species, baiting later in the season, when normalized difference vegetation indices (a measure of green vegetation density) are lower, improves bait uptake by smaller animals. Consideration of these factors can aid in the development of species-specific SPV baiting strategies that maximize bait uptake and subsequent immunization of prairie dogs against plague.

  5. Protecting Black-Footed Ferrets and Prairie Dogs Against Sylvatic Plague

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocke, Tonie E.

    2008-01-01

    Scientists at the USGS National Wildlife Health Center (NWHC), in collaboration with colleagues at other federal agencies and the University of Wisconsin, are developing and testing vaccines that can be used to protect black-footed ferrets and prairie dogs against plague. The black-footed ferret is commonly regarded as the most endangered mammal in North America, and sylvatic plague is a major impediment to its recovery. The three prairie dog species (Gunnison's, black-tailed, and white-tailed prairie dogs), upon which the ferret depends for food and whose burrows they use for shelter, have been drastically reduced from historical levels, resulting in the near extinction of the ferret. All three species are considered 'at risk' and have been petitioned for listing as 'threatened' or 'endangered' by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service (FWS). Additionally, the Utah prairie dog is listed as threatened and the Mexican prairie dog is considered endangered in Mexico. Like the black-footed ferret, all five prairie dog species are highly susceptible to plague and regularly experience outbreaks with devastating losses. Controlling plague outbreaks in prairie dogs and ferrets is a vital concern for ongoing recovery programs and conservation efforts for both species.

  6. Sylvatic plague vaccine: a new tool for conservation of threatened and endangered species?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Rachel C; Osorio, Jorge E; Bunck, Christine M; Rocke, Tonie E

    2012-09-01

    Plague, a disease caused by Yersinia pestis introduced into North America about 100 years ago, is devastating to prairie dogs and the highly endangered black-footed ferret. Current attempts to control plague in these species have historically relied on insecticidal dusting of prairie dog burrows to kill the fleas that spread the disease. Although successful in curtailing outbreaks in most instances, this method of plague control has significant limitations. Alternative approaches to plague management are being tested, including vaccination. Currently, all black-footed ferret kits released for reintroduction are vaccinated against plague with an injectable protein vaccine, and even wild-born kits are captured and vaccinated at some locations. In addition, a novel, virally vectored, oral vaccine to prevent plague in wild prairie dogs has been developed and will soon be tested as an alternative, preemptive management tool. If demonstrated to be successful, oral vaccination of selected prairie dog populations could decrease the occurrence of plague epizootics in key locations, thereby reducing the source of bacteria while avoiding the indiscriminate environmental effects of dusting. Just as rabies in wild carnivores has largely been controlled through an active surveillance and oral vaccination program, we believe an integrated plague management strategy would be similarly enhanced with the addition of a cost-effective, bait-delivered, sylvatic plague vaccine for prairie dogs. Control of plague in prairie dogs, and potentially other rodents, would significantly advance prairie dog conservation and black-footed ferret recovery.

  7. Risks associated with dispersive nocturnal flights of sylvatic Triatominae to artificial lights in a model house in the northeastern plains of Colombia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jácome-Pinilla, David; Hincapie-Peñaloza, Eduwin; Ortiz, Mario I; Ramírez, Juan David; Guhl, Felipe; Molina, Jorge

    2015-11-19

    Control initiatives and continuous surveillance of vector-borne transmission have proved to be effective measures for diminishing the incidence of Chagas disease in endemic countries. However, the active dispersal of infected sylvatic adult triatomines by flight represents one of the main obstacles to eliminating domestic transmission. In order to determine the risk that active dispersal of sylvatic adult triatomines represents in Colombian northeastern plains, we quantified the distribution and abundance of triatomines in palm trees (primarily Attalea butyracea) using live bait traps. Directional light traps were used to estimate the frequency of sylvatic triatomine dispersal and their possible origin. Finally, the effect of environmental parameters and artificial light sources on the take-off of sylvatic Rhodnius prolixus was evaluated in field experiments. R. prolixus was found in 90 % of the palm trees that densely aggregated toward the northern portion of the study area. R. prolixus, and three other sylvatic triatomine species were found to actively disperse and were attracted to the directional light traps (Triatoma maculata, Panstrongylus geniculatus and Psammolestes arthuri). Temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and night luminosity did not affect the active dispersal of the triatomines which is higher the first two hours after sunset. Artificial lights from houses at 60 and 110 m played a key role in the directionality of the R. prolixus take-offs. Trypanosoma cruzi was isolated from R. prolixus, T. maculata and P. geniculatus and was genotyped as T. cruzi I, III and IV. Our results highlight the potential risk in Colombian northeastern plains of actively dispersing sylvatic triatomines and their role in the domestic introduction of Discrete Typing Units of T. cruzi associated to sylvatic foci of Chagas disease transmission.

  8. Configuring the autism epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Christensen, Fie Lund Lindegaard

    2017-01-01

    is skewed in favour of boys, and girls with autism tend to be diagnosed much later than boys. Building and further developing the notion of ‘configuration’ of epidemics, this article explores the configuration of autism in Denmark, with a particular focus on the health system and social support to families...... with children diagnosed with autism, seen from a parental perspective. The article points to diagnostic dynamics that contribute to explaining why girls with autism are not diagnosed as easily as boys. We unfold these dynamics through the analysis of a case of a Danish family with autism.......Autism has been described as an epidemic, but this claim is contested and may point to an awareness epidemic, i.e. changes in the definition of what autism is and more attention being invested in diagnosis leading to a rise in registered cases. The sex ratio of children diagnosed with autism...

  9. Discrete epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Fred; Feng, Zhilan; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos

    2010-01-01

    The mathematical theory of single outbreak epidemic models really began with the work of Kermack and Mackendrick about decades ago. This gave a simple answer to the long-standing question of why epidemics woould appear suddenly and then disappear just as suddenly without having infected an entire population. Therefore it seemed natural to expect that theoreticians would immediately proceed to expand this mathematical framework both because the need to handle recurrent single infectious disease outbreaks has always been a priority for public health officials and because theoreticians often try to push the limits of exiting theories. However, the expansion of the theory via the inclusion of refined epidemiological classifications or through the incorporation of categories that are essential for the evaluation of intervention strategies, in the context of ongoing epidemic outbreaks, did not materialize. It was the global threat posed by SARS in that caused theoreticians to expand the Kermack-McKendrick single-outbreak framework. Most recently, efforts to connect theoretical work to data have exploded as attempts to deal with the threat of emergent and re-emergent diseases including the most recent H1N1 influenza pandemic, have marched to the forefront of our global priorities. Since data are collected and/or reported over discrete units of time, developing single outbreak models that fit collected data naturally is relevant. In this note, we introduce a discrete-epidemic framework and highlight, through our analyses, the similarities between single-outbreak comparable classical continuous-time epidemic models and the discrete-time models introduced in this note. The emphasis is on comparisons driven by expressions for the final epidemic size.

  10. Comparative effectiveness of azithromycin for treating scrub typhus: A PRISMA-compliant systematic review and meta-analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Szu-Chia; Cheng, Yu-Jyun; Lin, Chao-Hsu; Lei, Wei-Te; Chang, Hung-Yang; Lee, Ming-Dar; Liu, Jui-Ming; Hsu, Ren-Jun; Chiu, Nan-Chang; Chi, Hsin; Peng, Chun-Chih; Tsai, Te-Lung; Lin, Chien-Yu

    2017-09-01

    Scrub typhus is a zoonotic disease that remains an important health threat in endemic areas. Appropriate anti-rickettsial treatment ensures a successful recovery. Doxycycline is a recommended drug, but it is contraindicated in pregnant women and young children. Azithromycin is a safer alternative drug, but its effectiveness remains largely unclear. Herein, we conducted a systematic review and meta-analysis to determine the effectiveness of azithromycin. Studies that investigated azithromycin in treating scrub typhus were systematically identified from electronic databases up to December 2016. Information regarding study population, disease severity, treatment protocols, and responses was extracted and analyzed. In this review, 5 studies were included, which comprised a total of 427 patients. When comparing the treatment failure rate, we observed a favorable outcome in patients treated with azithromycin (risk ratio [RR] 0.83, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.23-2.98). However, patients in the azithromycin group had longer time to defervescence (mean difference 4.38 hours, 95% CI -2.51 to 11.27) and higher rate of fever for more than 48 hours (RR 1.31, 95% CI 0.81-2.12). Moreover, patients treated with azithromycin had less adverse effects (RR 0.8, 95% CI 0.42-1.52). Azithromycin is as effective as other anti-rickettsial drugs with higher treatment success rates, lower frequency of adverse effects, and longer time to defervescence (GRADE 2B). Therefore, it is reasonable to use azithromycin as the first-line treatment against scrub typhus. Further studies are warranted to elucidate the effectiveness of azithromycin in specific patient groups, at high dose and influence of drug resistance.

  11. Orientia tsutsugamushi in human scrub typhus eschars shows tropism for dendritic cells and monocytes rather than endothelium.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Daniel H; Phetsouvanh, Rattanaphone; Tanganuchitcharnchai, Ampai; Jones, Margaret; Jenjaroen, Kemajittra; Vongsouvath, Manivanh; Ferguson, David P J; Blacksell, Stuart D; Newton, Paul N; Day, Nicholas P J; Turner, Gareth D H

    2012-01-01

    Scrub typhus is a common and underdiagnosed cause of febrile illness in Southeast Asia, caused by infection with Orientia tsutsugamushi. Inoculation of the organism at a cutaneous mite bite site commonly results in formation of a localized pathological skin reaction termed an eschar. The site of development of the obligate intracellular bacteria within the eschar and the mechanisms of dissemination to cause systemic infection are unclear. Previous postmortem and in vitro reports demonstrated infection of endothelial cells, but recent pathophysiological investigations of typhus patients using surrogate markers of endothelial cell and leucocyte activation indicated a more prevalent host leucocyte than endothelial cell response in vivo. We therefore examined eschar skin biopsies from patients with scrub typhus to determine and characterize the phenotypes of host cells in vivo with intracellular infection by O. tsutsugamushi, using histology, immunohistochemistry, double immunofluorescence confocal laser scanning microscopy and electron microscopy. Immunophenotyping of host leucocytes infected with O. tsutsugamushi showed a tropism for host monocytes and dendritic cells, which were spatially related to different histological zones of the eschar. Infected leucocyte subsets were characterized by expression of HLADR+, with an "inflammatory" monocyte phenotype of CD14/LSP-1/CD68 positive or dendritic cell phenotype of CD1a/DCSIGN/S100/FXIIIa and CD163 positive staining, or occasional CD3 positive T-cells. Endothelial cell infection was rare, and histology did not indicate a widespread inflammatory vasculitis as the cause of the eschar. Infection of dendritic cells and activated inflammatory monocytes offers a potential route for dissemination of O. tsutsugamushi from the initial eschar site. This newly described cellular tropism for O. tsutsugamushi may influence its interaction with local host immune responses.

  12. The Obesity Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2011-07-18

    Learn about obesity and the community initiatives taking place to prevent and reduce this epidemic.  Created: 7/18/2011 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion, Division of Nutrition, Physical Activity and Obesity.   Date Released: 7/18/2011.

  13. Kanpur epidemic: Time course

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first peak was related to water contamination which began in December 1990. The second peak was related to failure of municipal authorities to chlorinate water during the 2nd week of February 1991. The epidemic came under control quickly after water contamination was controlled, providing confirmation for role of ...

  14. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began in 1991 during investigations into a large epidemic of hepatitis E in Kanpur that my mentor, later Prof SR Naik, and I undertook. I will use this epidemic as an ...

  15. Fever versus Fever: the role of host and vector susceptibility and interspecific competition in shaping the current and future distributions of the sylvatic cycles of dengue virus and yellow fever virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanley, Kathryn A.; Monath, Thomas P.; Weaver, Scott C.; Rossi, Shannan L.; Richman, Rebecca L.; Vasilakis, Nikos

    2013-01-01

    Two different species of flaviviruses, dengue virus (DENV) and yellow fever virus (YFV), that originated in sylvatic cycles maintained in non-human primates and forest-dwelling mosquitoes have emerged repeatedly into sustained human-to-human transmission by Aedes aegypti mosquitoes. Sylvatic cycles of both viruses remain active, and where the two viruses overlap in West Africa they utilize similar suites of monkeys and Aedes mosquitoes. These extensive similarities render the differences in the biogeography and epidemiology of the two viruses all the more striking. First, the sylvatic cycle of YFV originated in Africa and was introduced into the New World, probably as a result of the slave trade, but is absent in Asia; in contrast, sylvatic DENV likely originated in Asia and has spread to Africa but not to the New World. Second, while sylvatic YFV can emerge into extensive urban outbreaks in humans, these invariably die out, whereas four different types of DENV have established human transmission cycles that are ecologically and evolutionarily distinct from their sylvatic ancestors. Finally, transmission of YFV among humans has been documented only in Africa and the Americas, whereas DENV is transmitted among humans across most of the range of competent Aedes vectors, which in the last decade has included every continent save Antarctica. This review summarizes current understanding of sylvatic transmission cycles of YFV and DENV, considers possible explanations for their disjunct distributions, and speculates on the potential consequences of future establishment of a sylvatic cycle of DENV in the Americas. PMID:23523817

  16. Otalgia and eschar in the external auditory canal in scrub typhus complicated by acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiple organ failure

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hu Sung-Yuan

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Scrub typhus, a mite-transmitted zoonosis caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi, is an endemic disease in Taiwan and may be potentially fatal if diagnosis is delayed. Case presentations We encountered a 23-year-old previously healthy Taiwanese male soldier presenting with the right ear pain after training in the jungle and an eleven-day history of intermittent high fever up to 39°C. Amoxicillin/clavulanate was prescribed for otitis media at a local clinic. Skin rash over whole body and abdominal cramping pain with watery diarrhea appeared on the sixth day of fever. He was referred due to progressive dyspnea and cough for 4 days prior to admission in our institution. On physical examination, there were cardiopulmonary distress, icteric sclera, an eschar in the right external auditory canal and bilateral basal rales. Laboratory evaluation revealed thrombocytopenia, elevation of liver function and acute renal failure. Chest x-ray revealed bilateral diffuse infiltration. Doxycycline was prescribed for scrub typhus with acute respiratory distress syndrome and multiple organ failure. Fever subsided dramatically the next day and he was discharged on day 7 with oral tetracycline for 7 days. Conclusion Scrub typhus should be considered in acutely febrile patients with multiple organ involvement, particularly if there is an eschar or a history of environmental exposure in endemic areas. Rapid and accurate diagnosis, timely administration of antibiotics and intensive supportive care are necessary to decrease mortality of serious complications of scrub typhus.

  17. Development of life stages of Leptotrombidium imphalum and Leptotrombidium chiangraiensis (Acari: Trombiculidae) uninfected and infected with the scrub typhus rickettsia, Orientia tsustugamushi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leptotrombidium chiangraiensis Tanskul and Linthicum and Leptotrombidium imphalum Vercammen-Grandjean are important vectors of scrub typhus in ricefield habitats in northern Thailand. The developmental biology of all stages of the life cycle of two generations of mites infected with Orientia tsutsug...

  18. (Epidemic of bacillary dysentery)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Auger, P.; Pouliot, B.; De Grace, M.; Milot, C.; Lafortune, M.; Bergeron, Z.

    1981-10-01

    An outbreak of bacillary dysentery in 1978 affecting 928 persons, most of whom were living in the village of St-Jacques, PQ, is described. An epidemiologic study suggested the water supply as the source of the infection, and it was established that the water carried by the municipal aqueduct was contaminated by feces containing the causal agent, Shigella sonnei. This epidemic, the largest mentioned in he Canadian medical literature, demonstrates how contagious this infection is.

  19. A two years study on vectors of cutaneous Leishmaniasis. Evidence for sylvatic transmission cycle in the state of Campeche, Mexico.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rebollar-Téllez, E A; Ramírez-Fraire, A; Andrade-Narvaez, F J

    1996-01-01

    Vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the State of Campeche were studied in relation to the transmission cycle of Leishmania (Le.) mexicana. To determine how transmission of leishmaniasis occurs, we collected phlebotomine sand flies for two years. In the first year (October 1990 to November 1991) the collections were made with CDC light traps, Shannon traps and direct captures at natural shelters around the village (La Libertad. In the second year (February 1993 to January 1994) the catches were performed at 8 km southeast of La Libertad in the forest. Female sand flies were examined for Leishmania. During the first year, 347 sand flies of nine species were collected, most of which were Lutzomyia deleoni (61.3%). When all nine species were considered, more females than males were captured. Low densities of anthropophillic species of sand flies around the village indicated that sylvatic transmission was taking place. For the second year. 1484 sand flies of 16 species were caught. The most common were L. olmeca olmeca (21.7%), L. cruciata (19.2%) and L. ovallesi (14.1%). Similarly, more females were caught than males. Thirty-five females of five species were found infected with flagellates believed to be Leishmania sp. The highest infection rate was found in L. olmeca olmeca (7.1%) followed by L. cruciata (4.5%) and L. ovallesi (1.1%). These data plus other evidence on the epidemiology of human cases and results from reservoir studies are discussed in relation to the sylvatic transmission cycle.

  20. Sylvatic rabies epidemic in Italy: implementation of a data management system to assess the level of application of preventive dog vaccination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bortolotti, Laura; Cobianchi, Mario; Breda, Tatiana; Favero, Laura; Ruocco, Luigi; Marangon, Stefano

    2013-10-01

    After 20 years of absence, rabies re-emerged in wild animals in north-eastern Italy in October 2008. Besides measures undertaken to fight the spread of infection in wildlife, vaccination against rabies was made compulsory for dogs living in the risk area. In the last 15 years, the veterinary authorities have focused on implementing computerized data collection systems in animal health, to serve as working tools for epidemiological surveillance activities and emergencies management. The prerequisite for implementing any data collection system is knowledge of the animal population. This also applies to the Canine Registry Data Bank, in which data on dogs and their movements, together with personal data on each owner and keeper, have been stored since 2003. The management information system has been updated and specific functions have been integrated in order to support the activity of both the veterinary services and the veterinary practitioners involved in the dog vaccination program. Vaccination became voluntary in February 2013. This paper describes implementation of the software and organization of data gathering, highlighting the benefits of computerized data compared to previously used paper-based data collection systems. The new functions, designed to centralize collection of uniform, updated vaccination data, have led to more efficient organization and better control of the vaccination plan. Automated information processing allowed vaccination operations to be supervised, incurred costs to be calculated, and vaccination coverage of the dog population to be monitored during the 3 years of compulsory vaccination.

  1. Dose-response model of murine typhus (Rickettsia typhi: time post inoculation and host age dependency analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tamrakar Sushil B

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Rickettsia typhi (R. mooseri is the causative agent of murine typhus. It is one of the most widely distributed flea-borne diseases with a relatively mild febrile initial illness with six to 14 days of incubation period. The bacterium is gram negative and an obligate intracellular pathogen. The disease is transmitted to humans and vertebrate host through fleabites or via contact with infected feces. This paper develops dose-response models of different routes of exposure for typhus in rodents. Methods Data from published articles were analyzed using parametric dose-response relationship models. Dose-response relationships were fit to data using the method of maximum likelihood estimation (MLE. Results Dose-response models quantifying the effects of different ages of rats and time post inoculation in BALB/c mice were analyzed in the study. Both the adult rats (inoculated intradermally and newborn rats (inoculated subcutaneously were best fit by exponential models and both distributions could be described by a single dose-response relationship. The BALB/C mice inoculated subcutaneously were best fit by Beta-Poisson models. The time post inoculation analysis showed that there was a definite time and response relationship existed in this case. Conclusions Intradermally or subcutaneously inoculated rats (adult and newborn models suggest that less than 1 plaque-forming unit (PFU (1.33 to 0.38 in 95% confidence limits of the pathogen is enough to seroconvert 50% of the exposed population on average. For the BALB/c mouse time post inoculation model, an average dose of 0.28 plaque-forming units (PFU (0.75 to 0.11 in 95% confidence limits will seroconvert 50% of the exposed mice.

  2. Hepatitis E epidemics in India

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Notes: We compiled this slide in 1992. It shows dates, locations and number of cases for various epidemics reported from different parts of India till that time. The first well recorded epidemic was in 1955-56 here in Delhi with nearly 30000 cases. Large outbreaks occurred in 1978 in Kashmir. My interest in this disease began ...

  3. The epidemic of methylisothiazolinone

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schwensen, Jakob F; Uter, Wolfgang; Bruze, Magnus

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The use of methylisothiazolinone (MI) in cosmetic products has caused an unprecedented epidemic of MI contact allergy. Current data concerning exposures at a European level are required. OBJECTIVES: To describe demographics and MI exposures for European patients with MI contact allergy....... METHODS: Eleven European dermatology departments from eight European countries prospectively collected data between 1 May and 31 October 2015 among consecutive patients who had positive patch test reactions to MI (2000 ppm aq.). RESULTS: A total of 6.0% (205/3434; range 2.6-13.0%) of patients had positive...... patch test reactions to MI. Dermatitis most frequently affected the hands (43.4%), face (32.7%), arms (14.6%), and eyelids (11.7%); 12.7% had widespread dermatitis. For 72.7% (149/205), MI contact allergy was currently relevant mainly because of exposure to cosmetic products (83.2%; 124...

  4. [Epidemic of rubella encephalitis].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben Achour, N; Benrhouma, H; Rouissi, A; Touaiti, H; Kraoua, I; Turki, I; Gouider-Khouja, N

    2013-08-01

    Rubella is a mild viral illness in children. Rubella encephalitis is an extremely uncommon complication of rubella affecting unvaccinated children, aged between 5 and 14 years. From May to June 2011, we observed 9 cases of rubella encephalitis diagnosed during an epidemic of rubella. All were previously healthy (8 boys and 1 girl). None of them had received rubella vaccine. The mean age was 11.6 years. The onset of neurological symptoms occurred within 1-5 days after the typical rush and was associated with seizures and altered consciousness in all cases. The presence of serum immunoglobulin M antibody against rubella virus was demonstrated in all patients. EEGs showed slow wave activity in all patients and brain MRI was normal in the 9 cases. Full recovery was obtained in all patients. However, 4 of them required intensive care unit referral. Acute encephalitis is an extremely rare complication of rubella. The main neurological findings are headache, ataxia, and hemiplegia. Epileptic seizure and altered consciousness are rarely observed. Rubella encephalitis is generally self-limiting with about 80% recovery rate with no sequelae. However, severe courses have been reported. These cases illustrated the potential severity of rubella and they should be prevented by encouraging widespread early childhood vaccination. In Tunisia, rubella encephalitis has been reported once previously and vaccination against rubella virus has only recently been included in the national vaccination program, prescribed only for adolescent females. Following this rubella epidemic, vaccination strategies in Tunisia have been revised. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  5. Analysing deltamethrin susceptibility and pyrethroid esterase activity variations in sylvatic and domestic Triatoma infestans at the embryonic stage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santo-Orihuela, Pablo Luis; Carvajal, Guillermo; Picollo, María Inés; Vassena, Claudia Viviana

    2013-01-01

    The aim of the present work was to study the deltamethrin susceptibility of eggs from Triatoma infestans populations and the contribution of pyrethroid esterases to deltamethrin degradation. Insects were collected from sylvatic areas, including Veinte de Octubre and Kirus-Mayu (Bolivia) and from domiciliary areas, including El Palmar (Bolivia) and La Pista (Argentina). Deltamethrin susceptibility was determined by dose-response bioassays. Serial dilutions of deltamethrin (0.0005-1 mg/mL) were topically applied to 12-day-old eggs. Samples from El Palmar had the highest lethal dose ratio (LDR) value (44.90) compared to the susceptible reference strain (NFS), whereas the Veinte de Octubre samples had the lowest value (0.50). Pyrethroid esterases were evaluated using 7-coumaryl permethrate (7-CP) on individually homogenised eggs from each population and from NFS. The El Palmar and La Pista samples contained 40.11 and 36.64 pmol/min/mg protein, respectively, and these values were statistically similar to NFS (34.92 pmol/min/mg protein) and different from Kirus-Mayu and Veinte de Octubre (27.49 and 22.69 pmol/min/mg protein, respectively). The toxicological data indicate that the domestic populations were resistant to deltamethrin, but no statistical contribution of 7-CP esterases was observed. The sylvatic populations had similar LDR values to NFS, but lower 7-CP esterase activities. Moreover, this is the first study of the pyrethroid esterases on T. infestans eggs employing a specific substrate (7-CP). PMID:24402155

  6. Analysing deltamethrin susceptibility and pyrethroid esterase activity variations in sylvatic and domestic Triatoma infestans at the embryonic stage

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pablo Luis Santo-Orihuela

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the present work was to study the deltamethrin susceptibility of eggs from Triatoma infestans populations and the contribution of pyrethroid esterases to deltamethrin degradation. Insects were collected from sylvatic areas, including Veinte de Octubre and Kirus-Mayu (Bolivia and from domiciliary areas, including El Palmar (Bolivia and La Pista (Argentina. Deltamethrin susceptibility was determined by dose-response bioassays. Serial dilutions of deltamethrin (0.0005-1 mg/mL were topically applied to 12-day-old eggs. Samples from El Palmar had the highest lethal dose ratio (LDR value (44.90 compared to the susceptible reference strain (NFS, whereas the Veinte de Octubre samples had the lowest value (0.50. Pyrethroid esterases were evaluated using 7-coumaryl permethrate (7-CP on individually homogenised eggs from each population and from NFS. The El Palmar and La Pista samples contained 40.11 and 36.64 pmol/min/mg protein, respectively, and these values were statistically similar to NFS (34.92 pmol/min/mg protein and different from Kirus-Mayu and Veinte de Octubre (27.49 and 22.69 pmol/min/mg protein, respectively. The toxicological data indicate that the domestic populations were resistant to deltamethrin, but no statistical contribution of 7-CP esterases was observed. The sylvatic populations had similar LDR values to NFS, but lower 7-CP esterase activities. Moreover, this is the first study of the pyrethroid esterases on T. infestans eggs employing a specific substrate (7-CP.

  7. A two years study on vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis: Evidence for sylvatic transmission cycle in the State of Campeche, Mexico

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo A Rebollar-Téllez

    1996-10-01

    Full Text Available Vectors of cutaneous leishmaniasis in the State of Campeche were studied in relation to the transmission cycle of Leishmania (Le. mexicana. To determine how transmission of leishmaniasis occurs, we collected phlebotomine sand flies for two years. In the first year (October 1990 to November 1991 the collections were made with CDC light traps, Shannon traps and direct captures at natural shelters around the village (<200 m of La Libertad. In the second year (February 1993 to January 1994 the catches were performed at 8 km southeast of La Libertad in the forest. Female sand flies were examined for Leishmania. During the first year, 347 sand flies of nine species were collected, most of which were Lutzomyia deleoni (61.3%. When all nine species were considered, more females than males were captured. Low densities of anthropophillic species of sand flies around the village indicated that sylvatic transmission was taking place. For the second year, 1484 sand flies of 16 species were caught. The most common were L. olmeca olmeca (21.7%, L. cruciata (19.2% and L. ovallesi (14.1%. Similarly, more females were caught than males. Thirty-five females of five species were found infected with flagellates believed to be Leishmania sp. The highest infection rate was found in L. olmeca olmeca (7.1% followed by L. cruciata (4.5% and L. ovallesi (1.1%. These data plus other evidence on the epidemiology of human cases and results from reservoir studies are discussed in relation to the sylvatic transmission cycle.

  8. The identification of two Trypanosoma cruzi I genotypes from domestic and sylvatic transmission cycles in Colombia based on a single polymerase chain reaction amplification of the spliced-leader intergenic region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lina Marcela Villa

    2013-11-01

    Full Text Available A single polymerase chain reaction (PCR reaction targeting the spliced-leader intergenic region of Trypanosoma cruzi I was standardised by amplifying a 231 bp fragment in domestic (TcIDOM strains or clones and 450 and 550 bp fragments in sylvatic strains or clones. This reaction was validated using 44 blind coded samples and 184 non-coded T. cruzi I clones isolated from sylvatic triatomines and the correspondence between the amplified fragments and their domestic or sylvatic origin was determined. Six of the nine strains isolated from acute cases suspected of oral infection had the sylvatic T. cruzi I profile. These results confirmed that the sylvatic T. cruzi I genotype is linked to cases of oral Chagas disease in Colombia. We therefore propose the use of this novel PCR reaction in strains or clones previously characterised as T. cruzi I to distinguish TcIDOMfrom sylvatic genotypes in studies of transmission dynamics, including the verification of population selection within hosts or detection of the frequency of mixed infections by both T. cruzi I genotypes in Colombia.

  9. Epidemic cholera spreads like wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Manojit; Zinck, Richard D.; Bouma, Menno J.; Pascual, Mercedes

    2014-01-01

    Cholera is on the rise globally, especially epidemic cholera which is characterized by intermittent and unpredictable outbreaks that punctuate periods of regional disease fade-out. These epidemic dynamics remain however poorly understood. Here we examine records for epidemic cholera over both contemporary and historical timelines, from Africa (1990-2006) and former British India (1882-1939). We find that the frequency distribution of outbreak size is fat-tailed, scaling approximately as a power-law. This pattern which shows strong parallels with wildfires is incompatible with existing cholera models developed for endemic regions, as it implies a fundamental role for stochastic transmission and local depletion of susceptible hosts. Application of a recently developed forest-fire model indicates that epidemic cholera dynamics are located above a critical phase transition and propagate in similar ways to aggressive wildfires. These findings have implications for the effectiveness of control measures and the mechanisms that ultimately limit the size of outbreaks.

  10. Cascading effect of economic globalization on human risks of scrub typhus and tick-borne rickettsial diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuo, Chi-Chien; Huang, Jing-Lun; Shu, Pei-Yun; Lee, Pei-Lung; Kelt, Douglas A; Wang, Hsi-Chieh

    2012-09-01

    The increase in global travel and trade has facilitated the dissemination of disease vectors. Globalization can also indirectly affect vector-borne diseases through the liberalization of cross-border trade, which has far-reaching, worldwide effects on agricultural practices and may in turn influence vectors through the modification of the ecological landscape. While the cascading effect of economic globalization on vector-borne diseases, sometimes acting synergistically with regional agricultural policy, could be substantial and have significant economic, agricultural, and public health implications, research into this remains very limited. We evaluated how abandonment of rice paddies in Taiwan after joining the World Trade Organization, along with periodic plowing, an agricultural policy to reduce farm pests in abandoned fields can unexpectedly influence risks to diseases transmitted by ticks and chiggers (larval trombiculid mites), which we collected from their small-mammal hosts. Sampling was limited to abandoned (fallow) and plowed fields due to the challenge of trapping small mammals in flooded rice paddies. Striped field mice (Apodemus agrarius) are the main hosts for both vectors. They harbored six times more ticks and three times more chiggers in fallow than in plowed plots. The proportion of ticks infected with Rickettsia spp. (etiologic agent of spotted fever) was three times higher in fallow plots, while that of Orientia tsutsugamushi (scrub typhus) in chiggers was similar in both treatments. Fallow plots had more ground cover and higher vegetation than plowed ones. Moreover, ticks and chiggers in both field types were dominated by species known to infest humans. Because ticks and chiggers should exhibit very low survival in flooded rice paddies, we propose that farm abandonment in Taiwan, driven by globalization, may have inadvertently led to increased risks of spotted fever and scrub typhus. However, periodic plowing can unintentionally mitigate vector

  11. Structure of fumarate hydratase from Rickettsia prowazekii, the agent of typhus and suspected relative of the mitochondria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Phan, Isabelle; Subramanian, Sandhya; Olsen, Christian; Edwards, Thomas E.; Guo, Wenjin; Zhang, Yang; Van Voorhis, Wesley C.; Stewart, Lance J.; Myler, Peter J.

    2011-01-01

    Fumarate hydratase is an enzyme of the tricarboxylic acid cycle, one of the metabolic pathways characteristic of the mitochondria. The structure of R. prowazekii class II fumarate hydratase is reported at 2.4 Å resolution and is compared with the available structure of the human homolog. Rickettsiae are obligate intracellular parasites of eukaryotic cells that are the causative agents responsible for spotted fever and typhus. Their small genome (about 800 protein-coding genes) is highly conserved across species and has been postulated as the ancestor of the mitochondria. No genes that are required for glycolysis are found in the Rickettsia prowazekii or mitochondrial genomes, but a complete set of genes encoding components of the tricarboxylic acid cycle and the respiratory-chain complex is found in both. A 2.4 Å resolution crystal structure of R. prowazekii fumarate hydratase, an enzyme catalyzing the third step of the tricarboxylic acid cycle pathway that ultimately converts phosphoenolpyruvate into succinyl-CoA, has been solved. A structure alignment with human mitochondrial fumarate hydratase highlights the close similarity between R. prowazekii and mitochondrial enzymes

  12. Epidemic processes in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Castellano, Claudio; Van Mieghem, Piet; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2015-07-01

    In recent years the research community has accumulated overwhelming evidence for the emergence of complex and heterogeneous connectivity patterns in a wide range of biological and sociotechnical systems. The complex properties of real-world networks have a profound impact on the behavior of equilibrium and nonequilibrium phenomena occurring in various systems, and the study of epidemic spreading is central to our understanding of the unfolding of dynamical processes in complex networks. The theoretical analysis of epidemic spreading in heterogeneous networks requires the development of novel analytical frameworks, and it has produced results of conceptual and practical relevance. A coherent and comprehensive review of the vast research activity concerning epidemic processes is presented, detailing the successful theoretical approaches as well as making their limits and assumptions clear. Physicists, mathematicians, epidemiologists, computer, and social scientists share a common interest in studying epidemic spreading and rely on similar models for the description of the diffusion of pathogens, knowledge, and innovation. For this reason, while focusing on the main results and the paradigmatic models in infectious disease modeling, the major results concerning generalized social contagion processes are also presented. Finally, the research activity at the forefront in the study of epidemic spreading in coevolving, coupled, and time-varying networks is reported.

  13. Evaluation of Yersinia pestis transmission pathways for sylvatic plague in prairie dog populations in the western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richgels, Katherine L. D.; Russell, Robin E.; Bron, Gebbiena; Rocke, Tonie E.

    2016-01-01

    Sylvatic plague, caused by the bacterium Yersinia pestis, is periodically responsible for large die-offs in rodent populations that can spillover and cause human mortalities. In the western US, prairie dog populations experience nearly 100% mortality during plague outbreaks, suggesting that multiple transmission pathways combine to amplify plague dynamics. Several alternate pathways in addition to flea vectors have been proposed, such as transmission via direct contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, consumption of carcasses, and environmental sources of plague bacteria, such as contaminated soil. However, evidence supporting the ability of these proposed alternate pathways to trigger large-scale epizootics remains elusive. Here we present a short review of potential plague transmission pathways and use an ordinary differential equation model to assess the contribution of each pathway to resulting plague dynamics in black-tailed prairie dogs (Cynomys ludovicianus) and their fleas (Oropsylla hirsuta). Using our model, we found little evidence to suggest that soil contamination was capable of producing plague epizootics in prairie dogs. However, in the absence of flea transmission, direct transmission, i.e., contact with bodily fluids or inhalation of infectious droplets, could produce enzootic dynamics, and transmission via contact with or consumption of carcasses could produce epizootics. This suggests that these pathways warrant further investigation.

  14. Sources of blood meals of sylvatic Triatoma guasayana near Zurima, Bolivia, assayed with qPCR and 12S cloning.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David E Lucero

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study we compared the utility of two molecular biology techniques, cloning of the mitochondrial 12S ribosomal RNA gene and hydrolysis probe-based qPCR, to identify blood meal sources of sylvatic Chagas disease insect vectors collected with live-bait mouse traps (also known as Noireau traps. Fourteen T. guasayana were collected from six georeferenced trap locations in the Andean highlands of the department of Chuquisaca, Bolivia.We detected four blood meals sources with the cloning assay: seven samples were positive for human (Homo sapiens, five for chicken (Gallus gallus and unicolored blackbird (Agelasticus cyanopus, and one for opossum (Monodelphis domestica. Using the qPCR assay we detected chicken (13 vectors, and human (14 vectors blood meals as well as an additional blood meal source, Canis sp. (4 vectors.We show that cloning of 12S PCR products, which avoids bias associated with developing primers based on a priori knowledge, detected blood meal sources not previously considered and that species-specific qPCR is more sensitive. All samples identified as positive for a specific blood meal source by the cloning assay were also positive by qPCR. However, not all samples positive by qPCR were positive by cloning. We show the power of combining the cloning assay with the highly sensitive hydrolysis probe-based qPCR assay provides a more complete picture of blood meal sources for insect disease vectors.

  15. Age at vaccination may influence response to sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) in Gunnison’s prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocke, Tonie E.; Tripp, Daniel W.; Lorenzsonn, Faye; Falendysz, Elizabeth A.; Smith, Susan; Williamson, Judy L.; Abbott, Rachel C.

    2015-01-01

    Gunnison’s prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) have been considered at greater risk from Yersinia pestis (plague) infection in the montane portion of their range compared to populations at lower elevations, possibly due to factors related to flea transmission of the bacteria or greater host susceptibility. To test the latter hypothesis and determine whether vaccination against plague with an oral sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) improved survival, we captured prairie dogs from a C. g. gunnisoni or “montane” population and a C. g. zuniensis or “prairie” population for vaccine efficacy and challenge studies. No differences (P = 0.63) were found in plague susceptibility in non-vaccinated animals between these two populations; however, vaccinates from the prairie population survived plague challenge at significantly higher rates (P dogs, and that SPV could be a useful plague management tool for this species, particularly if targeted at younger cohorts.

  16. Sources of Blood Meals of Sylvatic Triatoma guasayana near Zurima, Bolivia, Assayed with qPCR and 12S Cloning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucero, David E.; Ribera, Wilma; Pizarro, Juan Carlos; Plaza, Carlos; Gordon, Levi W.; Peña, Reynaldo; Morrissey, Leslie A.; Rizzo, Donna M.; Stevens, Lori

    2014-01-01

    Background In this study we compared the utility of two molecular biology techniques, cloning of the mitochondrial 12S ribosomal RNA gene and hydrolysis probe-based qPCR, to identify blood meal sources of sylvatic Chagas disease insect vectors collected with live-bait mouse traps (also known as Noireau traps). Fourteen T. guasayana were collected from six georeferenced trap locations in the Andean highlands of the department of Chuquisaca, Bolivia. Methodology/Principal Findings We detected four blood meals sources with the cloning assay: seven samples were positive for human (Homo sapiens), five for chicken (Gallus gallus) and unicolored blackbird (Agelasticus cyanopus), and one for opossum (Monodelphis domestica). Using the qPCR assay we detected chicken (13 vectors), and human (14 vectors) blood meals as well as an additional blood meal source, Canis sp. (4 vectors). Conclusions/Significance We show that cloning of 12S PCR products, which avoids bias associated with developing primers based on a priori knowledge, detected blood meal sources not previously considered and that species-specific qPCR is more sensitive. All samples identified as positive for a specific blood meal source by the cloning assay were also positive by qPCR. However, not all samples positive by qPCR were positive by cloning. We show the power of combining the cloning assay with the highly sensitive hydrolysis probe-based qPCR assay provides a more complete picture of blood meal sources for insect disease vectors. PMID:25474154

  17. Municipalities of higher vulnerability to Sylvatic Yellow Fever occurrence in the São Paulo State, Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduardo Stramandinoli Moreno

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Until 1999 the endemic cases of Sylvatic Yellow Fever were located in the states of northern, midwestern and pre-Amazon regions. Since then, the disease progressively expanded its territory of occurrence, cases being registered beyond the traditional boundaries of endemism. The São Paulo State is considered to be part of this context, since after decades without registration of autochthonous cases of the disease, it reported, in 2000 and 2008-2009, epizootic occurrence in non-human primates and 30 cases in humans. Facts like these, added to the increase in incidences of serious adverse effects resulting from the Yellow Fever vaccination, have highlighted the importance of defining priority municipalities for vaccination against the disease in the state. Two groups of municipalities, some affected and some non-affected by YF, were compared for environmental variables related to the eco-epidemiology of the disease according to literature. The Multiple Correspondence Analysis (MCA was used to pinpoint the factor able to differentiate the two groups of municipalities and define the levels of risk. The southeast region of the São Paulo State was considered to be the area with a higher number of municipalities classified as high risk and should be considered a priority for the application of prevention measures against Yellow Fever.

  18. Age at vaccination may influence response to sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) in Gunnison’s prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocke, Tonie E.; Tripp, Daniel W.; Lorenzsonn, Faye; Falendysz, Elizabeth A.; Smith, Susan; Williamson, Judy L.; Abbott, Rachel C.

    2015-01-01

    Gunnison’s prairie dogs (Cynomys gunnisoni) have been considered at greater risk from Yersinia pestis (plague) infection in the montane portion of their range compared to populations at lower elevations, possibly due to factors related to flea transmission of the bacteria or greater host susceptibility. To test the latter hypothesis and determine whether vaccination against plague with an oral sylvatic plague vaccine (SPV) improved survival, we captured prairie dogs from a C. g. gunnisoni or “montane” population and a C. g. zuniensis or “prairie” population for vaccine efficacy and challenge studies. No differences (P = 0.63) were found in plague susceptibility in non-vaccinated animals between these two populations; however, vaccinates from the prairie population survived plague challenge at significantly higher rates (P control animals of different ages. These results suggest that host susceptibility is probably not related to the assumed greater risk from plague in the C. g. gunnisoni or “montane” populations of Gunnison’s prairie dogs, and that SPV could be a useful plague management tool for this species, particularly if targeted at younger cohorts.

  19. Do pathogens reduce genetic diversity of their hosts? Variable effects of sylvatic plague in black-tailed prairie dogs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sackett, Loren C; Collinge, Sharon K; Martin, Andrew P

    2013-05-01

    Introduced diseases can cause dramatic declines in-and even the loss of-natural populations. Extirpations may be followed by low recolonization rates, leading to inbreeding and a loss of genetic variation, with consequences on population viability. Conversely, extirpations may create vacant habitat patches that individuals from multiple source populations can colonize, potentially leading to an influx of variation. We tested these alternative hypotheses by sampling 15 colonies in a prairie dog metapopulation during 7 years that encompassed an outbreak of sylvatic plague, providing the opportunity to monitor genetic diversity before, during and after the outbreak. Analysis of nine microsatellite loci revealed that within the metapopulation, there was no change in diversity. However, within extirpated colonies, patterns varied: In half of the colonies, allelic richness after recovery was less than the preplague conditions, and in the other half, richness was greater than the preplague conditions. Finally, analysis of variation within individuals revealed that prairie dogs present in recolonized colonies had higher heterozygosity than those present before plague. We confirmed plague survivorship in six founders; these individuals had significantly higher heterozygosity than expected by chance. Collectively, our results suggest that high immigration rates can maintain genetic variation at a regional scale despite simultaneous extirpations in spatially proximate populations. Thus, virulent diseases may increase genetic diversity of host populations by creating vacant habitats that allow an influx of genetic diversity. Furthermore, even highly virulent diseases may not eliminate individuals randomly; rather, they may selectively remove the most inbred individuals. © 2013 Blackwell Publishing Ltd.

  20. Sources of blood meals of sylvatic Triatoma guasayana near Zurima, Bolivia, assayed with qPCR and 12S cloning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lucero, David E; Ribera, Wilma; Pizarro, Juan Carlos; Plaza, Carlos; Gordon, Levi W; Peña, Reynaldo; Morrissey, Leslie A; Rizzo, Donna M; Stevens, Lori

    2014-12-01

    In this study we compared the utility of two molecular biology techniques, cloning of the mitochondrial 12S ribosomal RNA gene and hydrolysis probe-based qPCR, to identify blood meal sources of sylvatic Chagas disease insect vectors collected with live-bait mouse traps (also known as Noireau traps). Fourteen T. guasayana were collected from six georeferenced trap locations in the Andean highlands of the department of Chuquisaca, Bolivia. We detected four blood meals sources with the cloning assay: seven samples were positive for human (Homo sapiens), five for chicken (Gallus gallus) and unicolored blackbird (Agelasticus cyanopus), and one for opossum (Monodelphis domestica). Using the qPCR assay we detected chicken (13 vectors), and human (14 vectors) blood meals as well as an additional blood meal source, Canis sp. (4 vectors). We show that cloning of 12S PCR products, which avoids bias associated with developing primers based on a priori knowledge, detected blood meal sources not previously considered and that species-specific qPCR is more sensitive. All samples identified as positive for a specific blood meal source by the cloning assay were also positive by qPCR. However, not all samples positive by qPCR were positive by cloning. We show the power of combining the cloning assay with the highly sensitive hydrolysis probe-based qPCR assay provides a more complete picture of blood meal sources for insect disease vectors.

  1. Networked SIS Epidemics With Awareness

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-07-20

    We study a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic process over a static contact network where the nodes have partial information about the epidemic state. They react by limiting their interactions with their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. A node\\'s awareness is weighted by the fraction of infected neighbors in their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time Markov chains, from which mean-field approximations (MFAs) are derived. The states of the MFA are interpreted as the nodes\\' probabilities of being infected. We show a sufficient condition for the existence of a

  2. Stochastic dynamics of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azaele, Sandro; Maritan, Amos; Bertuzzo, Enrico; Rodriguez-Iturbe, Ignacio; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2010-05-01

    We describe the predictions of an analytically tractable stochastic model for cholera epidemics following a single initial outbreak. The exact model relies on a set of assumptions that may restrict the generality of the approach and yet provides a realm of powerful tools and results. Without resorting to the depletion of susceptible individuals, as usually assumed in deterministic susceptible-infected-recovered models, we show that a simple stochastic equation for the number of ill individuals provides a mechanism for the decay of the epidemics occurring on the typical time scale of seasonality. The model is shown to provide a reasonably accurate description of the empirical data of the 2000/2001 cholera epidemic which took place in the Kwa Zulu-Natal Province, South Africa, with possibly notable epidemiological implications.

  3. Environmental Factors Influencing Epidemic Cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jutla, Antarpreet; Whitcombe, Elizabeth; Hasan, Nur; Haley, Bradd; Akanda, Ali; Huq, Anwar; Alam, Munir; Sack, R. Bradley; Colwell, Rita

    2013-01-01

    Cholera outbreak following the earthquake of 2010 in Haiti has reaffirmed that the disease is a major public health threat. Vibrio cholerae is autochthonous to aquatic environment, hence, it cannot be eradicated but hydroclimatology-based prediction and prevention is an achievable goal. Using data from the 1800s, we describe uniqueness in seasonality and mechanism of occurrence of cholera in the epidemic regions of Asia and Latin America. Epidemic regions are located near regional rivers and are characterized by sporadic outbreaks, which are likely to be initiated during episodes of prevailing warm air temperature with low river flows, creating favorable environmental conditions for growth of cholera bacteria. Heavy rainfall, through inundation or breakdown of sanitary infrastructure, accelerates interaction between contaminated water and human activities, resulting in an epidemic. This causal mechanism is markedly different from endemic cholera where tidal intrusion of seawater carrying bacteria from estuary to inland regions, results in outbreaks. PMID:23897993

  4. Scaling behavior of threshold epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ben-Naim, E.; Krapivsky, P. L.

    2012-05-01

    We study the classic Susceptible-Infected-Recovered (SIR) model for the spread of an infectious disease. In this stochastic process, there are two competing mechanism: infection and recovery. Susceptible individuals may contract the disease from infected individuals, while infected ones recover from the disease at a constant rate and are never infected again. Our focus is the behavior at the epidemic threshold where the rates of the infection and recovery processes balance. In the infinite population limit, we establish analytically scaling rules for the time-dependent distribution functions that characterize the sizes of the infected and the recovered sub-populations. Using heuristic arguments, we also obtain scaling laws for the size and duration of the epidemic outbreaks as a function of the total population. We perform numerical simulations to verify the scaling predictions and discuss the consequences of these scaling laws for near-threshold epidemic outbreaks.

  5. OBESITY: OVERVIEW OF AN EPIDEMIC

    OpenAIRE

    Mitchell, Nia; Catenacci, Vicki; Wyatt, Holly R.; Hill, James O.

    2011-01-01

    Despite growing recognition of the problem, the obesity epidemic continues in the U.S., and obesity rates are increasing around the world. The latest estimates are that approximately 34% of adults and 15–20% of children and adolescents in the U.S. are obese. Obesity affects every segment of the U.S. population. Obesity increases the risk of many chronic diseases in children and adults. The epidemic of obesity arose gradually over time, apparently from a small, consistent degree of positive en...

  6. Use of eschar swabbing for the molecular diagnosis and genotyping of Orientia tsutsugamushi causing scrub typhus in Quang Nam province, Vietnam.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nhiem Le Viet

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus is a rickettsiosis which is caused by Orientia tsutsugamushi and occurs throughout the Asia-Pacific region. Molecular diagnosis of rickettsioses using eschar swabs has recently emerged, and may be very useful for the diagnosis of these diseases in tropical settings.Quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR was used to detect O. tsutsugamushi DNA in whole blood and eschar swab specimens of 67 patients who were clinically suspected of scrub typhus in Quang Nam province, Vietnam. Among the 20 patients for whom both eschar and whole blood were obtained, 17 (85% of the eschar specimens and 5 (25% of the whole blood specimens tested positive for O. tsutsugamushi. Genetic analysis of the 56-kDa TSA gene sequences demonstrated that the 14 sequences obtained in this study, including 12 eschar swabs and 2 whole blood specimens, were related to 4 groups: Karp, Kawasaki, Gilliam (JG-v and TG-v and TA716. The majority (9/14; 64.4% of contemporary O. tsutsugamushi genotypes in Quang Nam province were related to the Karp group.These results suggest that polyclonal antigen pools used for serological testing in the future should contain at least Karp, Kawasaki, Gilliam and TA716 antigens for Vietnamese patients, as well as patients who have traveled to Vietnam. qPCR after eschar swabbing should be considered for molecular diagnosis of scrub typhus in endemic patients as well as in travelers, since it is easy to perform and appears very useful for the rapid detection of Orientia tsutsugamushi in the early phase of infection.

  7. Exposure and risk factors to coxiella burnetii, spotted fever group and typhus group Rickettsiae, and Bartonella henselae among volunteer blood donors in Namibia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce H Noden

    Full Text Available The role of pathogen-mediated febrile illness in sub-Saharan Africa is receiving more attention, especially in Southern Africa where four countries (including Namibia are actively working to eliminate malaria. With a high concentration of livestock and high rates of companion animal ownership, the influence of zoonotic bacterial diseases as causes of febrile illness in Namibia remains unknown.The aim of the study was to evaluate exposure to Coxiella burnetii, spotted fever and typhus group rickettsiae, and Bartonella henselae using IFA and ELISA (IgG in serum collected from 319 volunteer blood donors identified by the Blood Transfusion Service of Namibia (NAMBTS. Serum samples were linked to a basic questionnaire to identify possible risk factors. The majority of the participants (64.8% had extensive exposure to rural areas or farms. Results indicated a C. burnetii prevalence of 26.1% (screening titre 1∶16, and prevalence rates of 11.9% and 14.9% (screening titre 1∶100 for spotted fever group and typhus group rickettsiae, respectively. There was a significant spatial association between C. burnetii exposure and place of residence in southern Namibia (P0.012, especially cattle (P>0.006, were also significantly associated with C. burnetii exposure. Males were significantly more likely than females to have been exposed to spotted fever (P<0.013 and typhus (P<0.011 group rickettsiae. Three (2.9% samples were positive for B. henselae possibly indicating low levels of exposure to a pathogen never reported in Namibia.These results indicate that Namibians are exposed to pathogenic fever-causing bacteria, most of which have flea or tick vectors/reservoirs. The epidemiology of febrile illnesses in Namibia needs further evaluation in order to develop comprehensive local diagnostic and treatment algorithms.

  8. The narcissism epidemic is dead : Long live the narcissism epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wetzel, Eunike; Brown, Anna; Hill, Patrick; Chung, J.M.H.; Robins, R.W.; Roberts, B.W.

    2017-01-01

    Are recent cohorts of college students more narcissistic than their predecessors? To address debates about the so-called “narcissism epidemic,” we used data from three cohorts of students (N1990s = 1,166; N2000s = 33,647; N2010s = 25,412) to test whether narcissism levels (overall and specific

  9. HIV epidemic in South Africa: A comparison of HIV epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2014-08-26

    Aug 26, 2014 ... Method: 'Know your epidemic' synthesis suggests that HIV prevalence is rising in older age groups and falling in younger people. Using secondary data analyses of population-based and antenatal care surveillance (ANC) surveys, we explored trends and patterns in HIV prevalence in KwaZulu-Natal and ...

  10. Stochastic Processes in Epidemic Theory

    CERN Document Server

    Lefèvre, Claude; Picard, Philippe

    1990-01-01

    This collection of papers gives a representative cross-selectional view of recent developments in the field. After a survey paper by C. Lefèvre, 17 other research papers look at stochastic modeling of epidemics, both from a theoretical and a statistical point of view. Some look more specifically at a particular disease such as AIDS, malaria, schistosomiasis and diabetes.

  11. Epidemic Synchronization in Robotic Swarms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schiøler, Henrik; Nielsen, Jens Frederik Dalsgaard; Ngo, Trung Dung

    2009-01-01

    Clock synchronization in swarms of networked mobile robots is studied in a probabilistic, epidemic framework. In this setting communication and synchonization is considered to be a randomized process, taking place at unplanned instants of geographical rendezvous between robots. In combination...... as an infinite-dimensional optimal controlproblem. Illustrative numerical examples are given and commented....

  12. The First American Cocaine Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Courtwright, David T.

    1991-01-01

    Discusses the wave of cocaine abuse that followed the drug's recommendation by the late nineteenth-century medical community as a cure all. Details drug addiction among ethnic and social groups at the turn of the century. Warns that drug epidemics have important social and legal consequences. Suggests legal pressure may alter the form of drug…

  13. Opioids: The Prescription Drug & Heroin Overdose Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... About the Epidemic Help, Resources and Information National Opioids Crisis Search Search National Helpline SAMHSA’s National Helpline ... 1-800-662-4357 Visit Helpline Website THE OPIOID EPIDEMIC IN NUMBERS 80% Nearly 80% of heroin ...

  14. Long-term reduction of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in sylvatic mammals following deforestation and sustained vector surveillance in northwestern Argentina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceballos, L.A.; Cardinal, M.V.; Vazquez-Prokopec, G.M.; Lauricella, M.A.; Orozco, M.M.; Cortinas, R.; Schijman, A.G.; Levin, M.J.; Kitron, U.; Gürtler, R.E.

    2007-01-01

    Long-term variations in the dynamics and intensity of sylvatic transmission of Trypanosoma cruzi were investigated around eight rural villages in the semiarid Argentine Chaco in 2002–2004 and compared to data collected locally in 1984–1991. Of 501 wild mammals from 13 identified species examined by xenodiagnosis, only 3 (7.9%) of 38 Didelphis albiventris opossums and 1 (1.1%) of 91 Conepatus chinga skunks were infected by T. cruzi. The period prevalence in opossums was four-fold lower in 2002–2004 than in 1984–1991 (32–36%). The infection prevalence of skunks also decreased five-fold from 4.1–5.6% in 1984–1991 to 1.1% in 2002–2004. Infection in opossums increased with age and from summer to spring in both study periods. The force of infection per 100 opossum-months after weaning declined more than six-fold from 8.2 in 1988–1991 to 1.2 in 2002–2004. Opossums were mainly infected by T. cruzi lineage I and secondarily by lineage IId in 1984–1991, and only by T. cruzi I in 2002–2004; skunks were infected by T. cruzi IId in 1984–1991 and by IIc in 2002–2004. The striking decline of T. cruzi infection in opossums and skunks occurred in parallel to community-wide insecticide spraying followed by selective sprays leading to very low densities of infected Triatoma infestans in domestic and peridomestic habitats since 1992; to massive deforestation around one of the villages or selective extraction of older trees, and apparent reductions in opossum abundance jointly with increases in foxes and skunks. These factors may underlie the dramatic decrease of T. cruzi infection in wild reservoir hosts. PMID:16839513

  15. Two Pathogens and One Disease: Detection and Identification of Flea-Borne Rickettsiae in Areas Endemic for Murine Typhus in California

    Science.gov (United States)

    EREMEEVA, MARINA E.; KARPATHY, SANDOR E.; KRUEGER, LAURA; HAYES, ERICA K.; WILLIAMS, ASHLEY M.; ZALDIVAR, YAMITZEL; BENNETT, STEPHEN; CUMMINGS, ROBERT; TILZER, ART; VELTEN, ROBERT K.; KERR, NELSON; DASCH, GREGORY A.; HU, RENJIE

    2018-01-01

    Results of an environmental assessment conducted in a newly emergent focus of murine typhus in southern California are described. Opossums, Didelphis virginiana Kerr, infested with cat fleas, Ctenocephalides felis Buché, in the suburban area were abundant. Animal and flea specimens were tested for the DNA of two flea-borne rickettsiae, Rickettsia typhi and Rickettsia felis. R. felis was commonly detected in fleas collected throughout this area while R. typhi was found at a much lower prevalence in the vicinity of just 7 of 14 case-patient homes identified. DNA of R. felis, but not R. typhi, was detected in renal, hepatic, and pulmonary tissues of opossums. In contrast, there were no hematologic polymerase chain reaction findings of R. felis or R. typhi in opossums, rats, and cats within the endemic area studied. Our data suggest a significant probability of human exposure to R. felis in the area studied; however, disease caused by this agent is not recognized by the medical community and may be misdiagnosed as murine typhus using nondiscriminatory serologic methods. PMID:23270180

  16. Spatial and temporal abundance of three sylvatic yellow fever vectors in the influence area of the Manso hydroelectric power plant, Mato Grosso, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, A L M; Miyazaki, R D; Silva, M; Zeilhofer, P

    2012-01-01

    Human biting catches of sylvatic yellow fever (SYF) vectors were conducted at eight stations in the influence area of the Manso hydroelectric power plant (Central Brazil) in sampling campaigns every 2 mo from July 2000 to November 2001. In total, 206 individuals were captured and classified as one of three species important for the transmission of SYF in Mato Grosso state: Haemagogus (Haemagogus) janthinomys (Dyar, 1921); Haemagogus (Conopostegus) leucocelaenus (Dyar & Shannon, 1924); and Sabethes (Sabethoides) chloropterus (Humboldt, 1819). The highest vector abundance was observed during the rainy season (November through March) and SYF vectors were present in all sampling points throughout the year, mainly in riparian and shadowed transitional forests at shadowed ramps.

  17. Trypanosoma rangeli (Tejera, 1920 isolated from a sylvatic rodent (Echimys dasythrix in Santa Catarina island, Santa Catarina state: first report of this trypanosome in southern Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Steindel

    1991-03-01

    Full Text Available A trypanosome strain isolated from a sylvatic rodent (Echimys dasythrix from Santa Catarina Island (Santa Catarina State, Brazil was characterized by the following methods: experimental transmission and development in invertebrate hosts, morphometry, cross protection, complement sensitivity, lectin agglutination and isoenzyme profiles. Comparasions were made with standard Trypanosoma cruzi and T. rangeli strains. All methods except isoenzyne analysis led to the identification of the isolate as T. rangeli. The isoenzyme differences found could be explained on the basis of polymorphism. Therefore this is the first report of T. rangeli in southern Brazil, increasing the geographical distribution of this parasite.

  18. Epidemic thresholds for bipartite networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hernández, D. G.; Risau-Gusman, S.

    2013-11-01

    It is well known that sexually transmitted diseases (STD) spread across a network of human sexual contacts. This network is most often bipartite, as most STD are transmitted between men and women. Even though network models in epidemiology have quite a long history now, there are few general results about bipartite networks. One of them is the simple dependence, predicted using the mean field approximation, between the epidemic threshold and the average and variance of the degree distribution of the network. Here we show that going beyond this approximation can lead to qualitatively different results that are supported by numerical simulations. One of the new features, that can be relevant for applications, is the existence of a critical value for the infectivity of each population, below which no epidemics can arise, regardless of the value of the infectivity of the other population.

  19. Multiple routes transmitted epidemics on multiplex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao, Dawei; Li, Lixiang; Peng, Haipeng; Luo, Qun; Yang, Yixian

    2014-01-01

    This letter investigates the multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. We propose detailed theoretical analysis that allows us to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. It is found that the epidemic can spread across the multiplex network even if all the network layers are well below their respective epidemic thresholds. Strong positive degree–degree correlation of nodes in multiplex network could lead to a much lower epidemic threshold and a relatively smaller outbreak size. However, the average similarity of neighbors from different layers of nodes has no obvious effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. -- Highlights: •We studies multiple routes transmitted epidemic process on multiplex networks. •SIR model and bond percolation theory are used to analyze the epidemic processes. •We derive equations to accurately calculate the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •ASN has no effect on the epidemic threshold and outbreak size. •Strong positive DDC leads to a lower epidemic threshold and a smaller outbreak size.

  20. Epidemic spread on weighted networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christel Kamp

    Full Text Available The contact structure between hosts shapes disease spread. Most network-based models used in epidemiology tend to ignore heterogeneity in the weighting of contacts between two individuals. However, this assumption is known to be at odds with the data for many networks (e.g. sexual contact networks and to have a critical influence on epidemics' behavior. One of the reasons why models usually ignore heterogeneity in transmission is that we currently lack tools to analyze weighted networks, such that most studies rely on numerical simulations. Here, we present a novel framework to estimate key epidemiological variables, such as the rate of early epidemic expansion (r0 and the basic reproductive ratio (R0, from joint probability distributions of number of partners (contacts and number of interaction events through which contacts are weighted. These distributions are much easier to infer than the exact shape of the network, which makes the approach widely applicable. The framework also allows for a derivation of the full time course of epidemic prevalence and contact behaviour, which we validate with numerical simulations on networks. Overall, incorporating more realistic contact networks into epidemiological models can improve our understanding of the emergence and spread of infectious diseases.

  1. Understanding the Cholera Epidemic, Haiti

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barrais, Robert; Faucher, Benoît; Haus, Rachel; Piarroux, Martine; Gaudart, Jean; Magloire, Roc; Raoult, Didier

    2011-01-01

    After onset of a cholera epidemic in Haiti in mid-October 2010, a team of researchers from France and Haiti implemented field investigations and built a database of daily cases to facilitate identification of communes most affected. Several models were used to identify spatiotemporal clusters, assess relative risk associated with the epidemic’s spread, and investigate causes of its rapid expansion in Artibonite Department. Spatiotemporal analyses highlighted 5 significant clusters (p<0.001): 1 near Mirebalais (October 16–19) next to a United Nations camp with deficient sanitation, 1 along the Artibonite River (October 20–28), and 3 caused by the centrifugal epidemic spread during November. The regression model indicated that cholera more severely affected communes in the coastal plain (risk ratio 4.91) along the Artibonite River downstream of Mirebalais (risk ratio 4.60). Our findings strongly suggest that contamination of the Artibonite and 1 of its tributaries downstream from a military camp triggered the epidemic. PMID:21762567

  2. Una aproximación a las pestes y epidemias en la antigüedad = An approach to the plagues and epidemics in Ancient World

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Enrique Gozalbes Cravioto

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available En este artículo se estudian los principales episodios de pestes y epidemias que se produjeron en las civilizaciones de la antigüedad. Se analizan la gran peste de los hititas, en época del rey Mursili II (1321 a. C.-1295 a. C., la peste padecida por los filisteos (peste de Azoth, las epidemias padecidas por el ejército cartaginés en Sicilia (siglos V y IV a.C., la gran peste de Atenas en 439-429 a. C. (en la actualidad interpretada como tifus, las epidemias en la República romana de los siglos V y IV a. C., así como las epidemias padecidas por el imperio romano (en especial la peste de los Antoninos en el siglo II, y la de Cipriano en el siglo III, que se interpretan como viruela y sarampión. Finalmente se exponen datos sobre la peste padecida por Bizancio, en época del emperador Justiniano, que constituye ya, sin duda, el primer azote importante de la peste bubónica.This article examines the principal episodes of pest and epidemics that occurred in ancient civilizations. It discusses the great plague of the Hittites, in time of king Mursili II (1321-1295 B.C., the plague sufferend by the Philistines (Azoth Plague, the epidemics suffered by the Carthaginian army in Sicily (V and IV centuries B. C., the great pest of Athens in 431-429 B. C. (at present interpreted as typhus, the epidemics in the Roman Republic of the V and IV centuries B. C., and epidemics suffered by the Roman Empire (especially the plague of the Antonines in the Second century, and that of Cyprian in the Third century. Which are interpreted as smallpox and measles. Finally, we expose data of the plague suffered by Byzantine in time of Emperor Justinian, which is now undoubtedly the main scourge of bubonic plague.

  3. Multiple mitochondrial genes of some sylvatic Brazilian Triatoma: non-monophyly of the T. brasiliensis subcomplex and the need for a generic revision in the Triatomini.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gardim, Sueli; Almeida, Carlos E; Takiya, Daniela M; Oliveira, Jader; Araújo, Renato F; Cicarelli, Regina M B; da Rosa, João A

    2014-04-01

    Multiple fragments of mitochondrial DNA genes (cytochrome b, cytochrome oxidase I, and 16S rDNA) were used to evaluate the phylogenetic relationships among Triatoma melanocephala, Triatoma tibiamaculata, Triatoma vitticeps, and other members of Triatoma brasiliensis subcomplex under a Bayesian framework and maximum parsimony criterion. With the addition of new sequences of T. tibiamaculata and T. vitticeps, Triatoma juazeirensis, Triatoma melanica and the newly sequenced T. melanocephala, the three first sylvatic species, T. melanocephala, T. tibiamaculata and T. vitticeps, were strongly recovered into a clade separate from the other with the remaining Triatoma species from South America, such as the members of T. brasiliensis subcomplex. Panstrongylus megistus was recovered as a sister to T. tibiamaculata, whereas T. vitticeps was a sister to T. melanocephala. This study revealed the non-monophyly of the T. brasiliensis subcomplex, and the polyphyly of Triatoma was reinforced by the placement of these three sylvatic species with Dipetalogaster, Meccus, Mepraia, and Panstrongylus. The results herein shown highlight the need of generic revision in Triatomini. Copyright © 2014 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. Behavioural responses to human skin extracts and antennal phenotypes of sylvatic first filial generation and long rearing laboratory colony Rhodnius prolixus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mario Iván Ortiz

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available Chagas disease is a major public health issue and is mainly spread by Triatominae insects (Hemiptera: Reduviidae. Rhodnius prolixus is the main vector species in Northern South America. Host-seeking behaviour in R. prolixus is mediated by different compounds that are produced by and emanate from the host or microbiota on the host's skin. We tested the behavioural responses of sylvatic first filial generation (F1 and colony insects to extracts of human skin with a dual choice olfactometer. In addition, we compared the antennal phenotypes in both populations. No statistical differences were found between the two populations at the behavioural level. Both showed a preference for face and feet extracts and this effect was abolished for face extracts after treatment with an antibacterial gel. The observation of the antennal phenotype showed that there were differences between both groups in the total length, total surface area and number and density of bristles. However, the number and density of chemoreceptive sensilla (basiconic and thin and thick-walled trichoids and the total density of sensilla did not show statistically significant differences. These results demonstrate that colony insects, which have only been fed with living hens for the last 30 years, are attracted by human skin extracts in a similar way as F1 sylvatic insects.

  5. Modernising epidemic science: enabling patient-centred research during epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojek, Amanda M; Horby, Peter W

    2016-12-19

    Emerging and epidemic infectious disease outbreaks are a significant public health problem and global health security threat. As an outbreak begins, epidemiological investigations and traditional public health responses are generally mounted very quickly. However, patient-centred research is usually not prioritised when planning and enacting the response. Instead, the clinical research response occurs subsequent to and separate from the public health response, and is inadequate for evidence-based decision-making at the bedside or in the offices of public health policymakers. The deficiencies of the clinical research response to severe acute respiratory syndrome, pandemic influenza, Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus and Ebola virus demonstrate that current research models do not adequately inform and improve the quality of clinical care or public health response. Three suggestions for improvements are made. First, integrate the data and sample collection needs for clinical and public health decision-making within a unified framework, combined with a risk-based, rather than a discipline-based, approach to ethical review and consent. Second, develop clinical study methods and tools that are specifically designed to meet the epidemiological and contextual challenges of emerging and epidemic infectious diseases. Third, invest in investigator-led clinical research networks that are primed and incentivised to respond to outbreak infections, and which can call on the support and resources of a central centre of excellence. It is crucial that the field of epidemic science matures to place patients at the heart of the response. This can only be achieved when patient-centred research is integrated in the outbreak response from day one and practical steps are taken to reduce the barriers to the generation of reliable and useful evidence.

  6. SIS Epidemic Propagation on Hypergraphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bodó, Ágnes; Katona, Gyula Y; Simon, Péter L

    2016-04-01

    Mathematical modelling of epidemic propagation on networks is extended to hypergraphs in order to account for both the community structure and the nonlinear dependence of the infection pressure on the number of infected neighbours. The exact master equations of the propagation process are derived for an arbitrary hypergraph given by its incidence matrix. Based on these, moment closure approximation and mean-field models are introduced and compared to individual-based stochastic simulations. The simulation algorithm, developed for networks, is extended to hypergraphs. The effects of hypergraph structure and the model parameters are investigated via individual-based simulation results.

  7. Contact allergy epidemics and their controls

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thyssen, Jacob Pontoppidan; Johansen, Jeanne Duus; Menné, Torkil

    2007-01-01

    Contact dermatitis can be severe and lead to sick leave as well as significant healthcare expenses. The aim of this review is to present the published knowledge on 6 historical epidemics of contact allergy to apply this knowledge on the prevention and control of future contact allergy epidemics...... to prevent contact allergy epidemics. It is essential that dermatologist, scientists, administrators, and consumers organize and structure known methods to accelerate the control of emerging contact allergens....

  8. Strong interferon-gamma mediated cellular immunity to scrub typhus demonstrated using a novel whole cell antigen ELISpot assay in rhesus macaques and humans.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Manutsanun Sumonwiriya

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Scrub typhus is a febrile infection caused by the obligate intracellular bacterium Orientia tsutsugamushi, which causes significant morbidity and mortality across the Asia-Pacific region. The control of this vector-borne disease is challenging due to humans being dead-end hosts, vertical maintenance of the pathogen in the vector itself, and a potentially large rodent reservoir of unclear significance, coupled with a lack of accurate diagnostic tests. Development of an effective vaccine is highly desirable. This however requires better characterization of the natural immune response of this neglected but important disease. Here we implement a novel IFN-γ ELISpot assay as a tool for studying O. tsutsugamushi induced cellular immune responses in an experimental scrub typhus rhesus macaque model and human populations. Whole cell antigen for O. tsutsugamushi (OT-WCA was prepared by heat inactivation of Karp-strain bacteria. Rhesus macaques were infected intradermally with O. tsutsugamushi. Freshly isolated peripheral blood mononuclear cells (PBMC from infected (n = 10 and uninfected animals (n = 5 were stimulated with OT-WCA, and IFN-γ secreting cells quantitated by ELISpot assay at five time points over 28 days. PBMC were then assayed from people in a scrub typhus-endemic region of Thailand (n = 105 and responses compared to those from a partially exposed population in a non-endemic region (n = 14, and to a naïve population in UK (n = 12. Mean results at Day 0 prior to O. tsutsugamushi infection were 12 (95% CI 0-25 and 15 (2-27 spot-forming cells (SFC/106 PBMC for infected and control macaques respectively. Strong O. tsutsugamushi-specific IFN-γ responses were seen post infection, with ELISpot responses 20-fold higher than baseline at Day 7 (mean 235, 95% CI 200-270 SFC/106 PBMC, 105-fold higher at Day 14 (mean 1261, 95% CI 1,097-1,425 SFC/106 PBMC, 125-fold higher at Day 21 (mean 1,498, 95% CI 1,496-1,500 SFC/106 PBMC and 118-fold higher at

  9. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur......, such as in other multiple failure scenarios, identifying the level of vulnerability offered by a network is one of the main challenges. In this paper, we present epidemic survivability, a new network measure that describes the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Moreover......, this metric is able to identify the set of nodes which are more vulnerable under an epidemic attack. In addition, two applications of epidemic survivability are provided. First, we introduce epidemic criticality, a novel robustness metric for epidemic failure scenarios. A case study shows the utility...

  10. Epidemic Survivability: Characterizing Networks Under Epidemic-like Failure Propagation Scenarios

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2013-01-01

    Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models in telecommunicat......Epidemics theory has been used in different contexts in order to describe the propagation of diseases, human interactions or natural phenomena. In computer science, virus spreading has been also characterized using epidemic models. Although in the past the use of epidemic models...... in telecommunication networks has not been extensively considered, nowadays, with the increasing computation capacity and complexity of operating systems of modern network devices (routers, switches, etc.), the study of possible epidemic-like failure scenarios must be taken into account. When epidemics occur...

  11. Can rewiring strategy control the epidemic spreading?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Chao; Yin, Qiuju; Liu, Wenyang; Yan, Zhijun; Shi, Tianyu

    2015-11-01

    Relation existed in the social contact network can affect individuals' behaviors greatly. Considering the diversity of relation intimacy among network nodes, an epidemic propagation model is proposed by incorporating the link-breaking threshold, which is normally neglected in the rewiring strategy. The impact of rewiring strategy on the epidemic spreading in the weighted adaptive network is explored. The results show that the rewiring strategy cannot always control the epidemic prevalence, especially when the link-breaking threshold is low. Meanwhile, as well as strong links, weak links also play a significant role on epidemic spreading.

  12. Sylvatic host associations of Triatominae and implications for Chagas disease reservoirs: a review and new host records based on archival specimens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Y. Georgieva

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Background The 152 extant species of kissing bug include important vectors of the debilitating, chronic, and often fatal Chagas disease, which affects several million people mainly in Central and South America. An understanding of the natural hosts of this speciose group of blood-feeding insects has and will continue to aid ongoing efforts to impede the spread of Chagas disease. However, information on kissing bug biology is piecemeal and scattered, developed using methods with varying levels of accuracy over more than 100 years. Existing host records are heavily biased towards well-studied primary vector species and are derived from primarily three different types of observations, associational, immunological or DNA-based, with varying reliability. Methods We gather a comprehensive and unparalleled number of sources reporting host associations via rigorous targeted searches of publication databases to review all known natural, or sylvatic, host records including information on how each record was collected. We integrate this information with novel host records obtained via attempted amplification and sequencing of a ∼160 base pair (bp region of the vertebrate 12S mitochondrial gene from the gastrointestinal tract of 64 archival specimens of Triatominae representing 19 species collected primarily in sylvatic habitats throughout the southern United States and Central and South America during the past 10 years. We show the utility of this method for uncovering novel and under-studied groups of Triatominae hosts, as well as detecting the presence of the Chagas disease pathogen via Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR of a ∼400 bp sequence of the trypanosome 18S gene. Results New host associations for several groups of arboreal mammals were determined including sloths, New World monkeys, coatis, arboreal porcupines and, for the first time as a host of any Triatominae, tayras. A thorough review of previously documented sylvatic hosts, organized by

  13. Sylvatic host associations of Triatominae and implications for Chagas disease reservoirs: a review and new host records based on archival specimens.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgieva, Anna Y; Gordon, Eric R L; Weirauch, Christiane

    2017-01-01

    The 152 extant species of kissing bug include important vectors of the debilitating, chronic, and often fatal Chagas disease, which affects several million people mainly in Central and South America. An understanding of the natural hosts of this speciose group of blood-feeding insects has and will continue to aid ongoing efforts to impede the spread of Chagas disease. However, information on kissing bug biology is piecemeal and scattered, developed using methods with varying levels of accuracy over more than 100 years. Existing host records are heavily biased towards well-studied primary vector species and are derived from primarily three different types of observations, associational, immunological or DNA-based, with varying reliability. We gather a comprehensive and unparalleled number of sources reporting host associations via rigorous targeted searches of publication databases to review all known natural, or sylvatic, host records including information on how each record was collected. We integrate this information with novel host records obtained via attempted amplification and sequencing of a ∼160 base pair (bp) region of the vertebrate 12S mitochondrial gene from the gastrointestinal tract of 64 archival specimens of Triatominae representing 19 species collected primarily in sylvatic habitats throughout the southern United States and Central and South America during the past 10 years. We show the utility of this method for uncovering novel and under-studied groups of Triatominae hosts, as well as detecting the presence of the Chagas disease pathogen via Polymerase Chain Reaction (PCR) of a ∼400 bp sequence of the trypanosome 18S gene. New host associations for several groups of arboreal mammals were determined including sloths, New World monkeys, coatis, arboreal porcupines and, for the first time as a host of any Triatominae, tayras. A thorough review of previously documented sylvatic hosts, organized by triatomine species and the type of observation

  14. Drivers of house invasion by sylvatic Chagas disease vectors in the Amazon-Cerrado transition: A multi-year, state-wide assessment of municipality-aggregated surveillance data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brito, Raíssa N; Gorla, David E; Diotaiuti, Liléia; Gomes, Anália C F; Souza, Rita C M; Abad-Franch, Fernando

    2017-11-01

    Insecticide spraying efficiently controls house infestation by triatomine bugs, the vectors of Trypanosoma cruzi. The strategy, however, is ineffective against sylvatic triatomines, which can transmit Chagas disease by invading (without colonizing) man-made structures. Despite growing awareness of the relevance of these transmission dynamics, the drivers of house invasion by sylvatic triatomines remain poorly understood. About 12,000 sylvatic triatomines were caught during routine surveillance in houses of Tocantins state, Brazil, in 2005-2013. Using negative binomial regression, information-theoretic model evaluation/averaging, and external model validation, we investigated the effects of regional (Amazon/Cerrado), landscape (preservation/disturbance), and climate covariates (temperature, rainfall) on the municipality-aggregated numbers of house-invading Rhodnius pictipes, R. robustus, R. neglectus, and Panstrongylus geniculatus. House invasion by R. pictipes and R. robustus was overall more frequent in the Amazon biome, tended to increase in municipalities with more well-preserved land, and decreased in rainier municipalities. Across species, invasion decreased with higher landscape-disturbance levels and in hotter-day municipalities. Invasion by R. neglectus and P. geniculatus increased somewhat with more land at intermediate disturbance and peaked in average-rainfall municipalities. Temperature effects were more pronounced on P. geniculatus than on Rhodnius spp. We report widespread, frequent house invasion by sylvatic triatomines in the Amazon-Cerrado transition. Our analyses indicate that readily available environmental metrics may help predict the risk of contact between sylvatic triatomines and humans at coarse geographic scales, and hint at specific hypotheses about climate and deforestation effects on those vectors-with some taxon-specific responses and some seemingly general trends. Thus, our focal species appear to be quite sensitive to higher

  15. Epidemic corruption: a bio-economic homology

    OpenAIRE

    Hathroubi, Salem

    2013-01-01

    This paper aims to study corruption as an epidemic phenomenon using the epidemic diffusion model of Kermack and Mc-Kendrick (1927). We seek to determine the dynamics of corruption and its impact on the composition of the population at a given time. We determine a threshold epidemiological corruption based on the approximation of the honest population.

  16. Epidemic Network Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Katsikas, Dimitrios; Fagertun, Anna Manolova

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a failure propagation model for transport networks which are affected by epidemic failures. The network is controlled using the GMPLS protocol suite. The Susceptible Infected Disabled (SID) epidemic model is investigated and new signaling functionality of GMPLS to support...

  17. A break in the obesity epidemic?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Visscher, T L S; Heitmann, B L; Rissanen, A

    2015-01-01

    epidemic. However, follow-ups of short duration may, in part, explain the apparent break or decrease in the obesity epidemic. On the other hand, a single focus on body mass index (BMI) ⩾25 or ⩾30 kg m(-)(2) is likely to mask a real increase in the obesity epidemic. And, in both children and adults, trends......Recent epidemiologic papers are presenting prevalence data suggesting breaks and decreases in obesity rates. However, before concluding that the obesity epidemic is not increasing anymore, the validity of the presented data should be discussed more thoroughly. We had a closer look...... into the literature presented in recent reviews to address the major potential biases and distortions, and to develop insights about how to interpret the presented suggestions for a potential break in the obesity epidemic. Decreasing participation rates, the use of reported rather than measured data and small sample...

  18. Familial epidemic of meningococcal disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smilović, V; Vrbanec-Megla, L; Payerl-Pal, M; Puntarić, D; Baklaić, Z

    1998-03-01

    Two closely related boys from the same house hold (Home 1), aged two and three, were affected with fulminant meningococcal sepsis known as Waterhouse-Friderichsen syndrome. Neisseria meningitidis serogorup B was isolated from their blood and cerebrospinal fluid. The two-year-old boy died one day after the onset of the disease. Epidemiological examination of contacts and pharyngeal swabs were performed in 14 persons from the household, all of them relatives of the affected children, as well as in a number of other contacts. Chemoprophylaxis with cotrimoxazole was simultaneously administered to all contacts. Family histories revealed that two contacts from the household where the patients did not live (Home 2) were inadvertently omitted. Subsequent examinations, following a report of another contagious disease (salmonelosis), revealed that these two persons were Neisseria meningitidis carriers, together with another one in the same household. The carriers most probably caused the infection of a third, five-year-old boy, the deceased boy's brother (Home 1) who also developed fulminant meningococcal sepsis. The failure to take the appropriate prophylaxis led to a prolonged carrier state in the carrier from the second household. Repeated pharyngeal swab sampling revealed two more carriers from both households that had previously been negative. Control of the epidemic was achieved after 5 weeks by repeated and controlled chemoprophylaxis with ciprofloxacin, and by repeated epidemiological examinations, disinfection, and daily health surveillance by the Sanitary Inspectorate. This extremely rare instance of a familial epidemic with three infected persons emphasizes the need for consistent chemoprophylaxis in meningococcal disease contacts.

  19. Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the Moving Epidemic Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vega, Tomás; Lozano, Jose Eugenio; Meerhoff, Tamara; Snacken, René; Mott, Joshua; Ortiz de Lejarazu, Raul; Nunes, Baltazar

    2012-01-01

    Please cite this paper as: Vega et al. (2012) Influenza surveillance in Europe: establishing epidemic thresholds by the moving epidemic method. Influenza and Other Respiratory Viruses 7(4), 546–558. Background  Timely influenza surveillance is important to monitor influenza epidemics. Objectives  (i) To calculate the epidemic threshold for influenza‐like illness (ILI) and acute respiratory infections (ARI) in 19 countries, as well as the thresholds for different levels of intensity. (ii) To evaluate the performance of these thresholds. Methods  The moving epidemic method (MEM) has been developed to determine the baseline influenza activity and an epidemic threshold. False alerts, detection lags and timeliness of the detection of epidemics were calculated. The performance was evaluated using a cross‐validation procedure. Results  The overall sensitivity of the MEM threshold was 71·8% and the specificity was 95·5%. The median of the timeliness was 1 week (range: 0–4·5). Conclusions  The method produced a robust and specific signal to detect influenza epidemics. The good balance between the sensitivity and specificity of the epidemic threshold to detect seasonal epidemics and avoid false alerts has advantages for public health purposes. This method may serve as standard to define the start of the annual influenza epidemic in countries in Europe. PMID:22897919

  20. Modeling Epidemics Spreading on Social Contact Networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Zhaoyang; Wang, Honggang; Wang, Chonggang; Fang, Hua

    2015-09-01

    Social contact networks and the way people interact with each other are the key factors that impact on epidemics spreading. However, it is challenging to model the behavior of epidemics based on social contact networks due to their high dynamics. Traditional models such as susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) model ignore the crowding or protection effect and thus has some unrealistic assumption. In this paper, we consider the crowding or protection effect and develop a novel model called improved SIR model. Then, we use both deterministic and stochastic models to characterize the dynamics of epidemics on social contact networks. The results from both simulations and real data set conclude that the epidemics are more likely to outbreak on social contact networks with higher average degree. We also present some potential immunization strategies, such as random set immunization, dominating set immunization, and high degree set immunization to further prove the conclusion.

  1. Can epidemics be non-communicable?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Seeberg, Jens; Meinert, Lotte

    2015-01-01

    This article argues that the concept of communicability that is central to the distinction between communicable diseases (CDs) and noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) is poorly conceptualized. The epidemic spread of NCDs such as diabetes, depression, and eating disorders demonstrates...

  2. The hidden epidemic: confronting sexually transmitted diseases

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Eng, Thomas R; Butler, William T

    .... In addition, STDs increase the risk of HIV transmission. The Hidden Epidemic examines the scope of sexually transmitted infections in the United States and provides a critical assessment of the nation's response to this public health crisis...

  3. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Ye [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Liu, Chuang, E-mail: liuchuang@hznu.edu.cn [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Chu-Xu [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Zhang, Zi-Ke, E-mail: zhangzike@gmail.com [Institute of Information Economy, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China); Alibaba Research Center of Complexity Science, Hangzhou Normal University, Hangzhou 311121 (China)

    2014-01-31

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  4. Epidemic spreading on weighted complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Ye; Liu, Chuang; Zhang, Chu-Xu; Zhang, Zi-Ke

    2014-01-01

    Nowadays, the emergence of online services provides various multi-relation information to support the comprehensive understanding of the epidemic spreading process. In this Letter, we consider the edge weights to represent such multi-role relations. In addition, we perform detailed analysis of two representative metrics, outbreak threshold and epidemic prevalence, on SIS and SIR models. Both theoretical and simulation results find good agreements with each other. Furthermore, experiments show that, on fully mixed networks, the weight distribution on edges would not affect the epidemic results once the average weight of whole network is fixed. This work may shed some light on the in-depth understanding of epidemic spreading on multi-relation and weighted networks.

  5. Epidemics and rumours in complex networks

    CERN Document Server

    Draief, Moez

    2009-01-01

    Information propagation through peer-to-peer systems, online social systems, wireless mobile ad hoc networks and other modern structures can be modelled as an epidemic on a network of contacts. Understanding how epidemic processes interact with network topology allows us to predict ultimate course, understand phase transitions and develop strategies to control and optimise dissemination. This book is a concise introduction for applied mathematicians and computer scientists to basic models, analytical tools and mathematical and algorithmic results. Mathematical tools introduced include coupling

  6. Detecting nonlinearity and chaos in epidemic data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ellner, S.; Gallant, A.R. [North Carolina State Univ., Raleigh, NC (United States). Dept. of Statistics; Theiler, J. [Santa Fe Inst., NM (United States)]|[Los Alamos National Lab., NM (United States)

    1993-08-01

    Historical data on recurrent epidemics have been central to the debate about the prevalence of chaos in biological population dynamics. Schaffer and Kot who first recognized that the abundance and accuracy of disease incidence data opened the door to applying a range of methods for detecting chaos that had been devised in the early 1980`s. Using attractor reconstruction, estimates of dynamical invariants, and comparisons between data and simulation of SEIR models, the ``case for chaos in childhood epidemics`` was made through a series of influential papers beginning in the mid 1980`s. The proposition that the precise timing and magnitude of epidemic outbreaks are deterministic but chaotic is appealing, since it raises the hope of finding determinism and simplicity beneath the apparently stochastic and complicated surface of the data. The initial enthusiasm for methods of detecting chaos in data has been followed by critical re-evaluations of their limitations. Early hopes of a ``one size fits all`` algorithm to diagnose chaos vs. noise in any data set have given way to a recognition that a variety of methods must be used, and interpretation of results must take into account the limitations of each method and the imperfections of the data. Our goals here are to outline some newer methods for detecting nonlinearity and chaos that have a solid statistical basis and are suited to epidemic data, and to begin a re-evaluation of the claims for nonlinear dynamics and chaos in epidemics using these newer methods. We also identify features of epidemic data that create problems for the older, better known methods of detecting chaos. When we ask ``are epidemics nonlinear?``, we are not questioning the existence of global nonlinearities in epidemic dynamics, such as nonlinear transmission rates. Our question is whether the data`s deviations from an annual cyclic trend (which would reflect global nonlinearities) are described by a linear, noise-driven stochastic process.

  7. Phylodynamic analysis of HIV sub-epidemics in Mochudi, Botswana

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlad Novitsky

    2015-12-01

    Real-time HIV genotyping and breaking down local HIV epidemics into phylogenetically distinct sub-epidemics may help to reveal the structure and dynamics of HIV transmission networks in communities, and aid in the design of targeted interventions for members of the acute sub-epidemics that likely fuel local HIV/AIDS epidemics.

  8. Feeding habits of mosquitoes (Diptera: Culicidae) in an area of sylvatic transmission of yellow fever in the state of São Paulo, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucci, Luis Filipe; Júnior, Rubens Pinto Cardoso; de Paula, Marcia Bicudo; Scandar, Sirle Abdo Salloum; Pacchioni, Márcio Lunardeli; Fernandes, Aristides; Consales, Cleide Aschenbrenner

    2015-01-01

    The reintroduction of sylvatic yellow fever in the state of São Paulo after about six decades was confirmed in the Northwestern region in 2000, where in 2008 there also occurred an important epizootic. The purpose of this study was to investigate the feeding habits of culicids potentially involved in the sylvatic transmission of the virus in this region. Specimens were collected in 24 forested localities at ground level with hand nets and mouth aspirators. Collections were made quarterly between October 2006 and July 2008 during daylight hours. Blood-meal identification was carried out in mosquitoes of the tribes Aedini, Mansoniini and Sabethini. The biotin/avidin sandwich ELISA was employed to determine six source types: bird, bovine, equine, rat, human and monkey. A total of 24,879 females of the three tribes were obtained, 245 (0.98%) of which were engorged. The presence of three different blood sources per engorged female was the predominant situation, and included 35.10% of the total of samples processed. Samples with two or four different sources were represented by 25.31% and 25.71%, of the specimens, respectively, while just 9.39% had only one type and 1.22%, five different sources. Aedes scapularis, Ae. serratus (Group), Psorophora albigenu and Ps. ferox were the most abundant species and accounted for about 95% of the engorged specimens. Of the principal vector species, Haemagogus janthinomys/capricornii was found with bird, bovine and primate blood. These sources were predominant and alternated top ranking as the most frequent source according to the mosquito species and collection site. In general, primate blood was the most prevalent source. The human population of the region visits this ecotone frequently, which indicates the need for the periodical assessment of vaccination coverage against yellow fever. The frequency of non-human primate blood source in mosquito species that show minor vector importance in yellow fever virus transmission deserves

  9. HIV epidemics in Shenzhen and Chongqing, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shu Yang

    Full Text Available Men who have sex with men (MSM and heterosexuals are the populations with the fastest growing HIV infection rates in China. We characterize the epidemic growth and age patterns between these two routes from 2004 to 2015 in Chongqing and Shenzhen, China.Data were downloaded from the National HIV/ AIDS Comprehensive Response Information Management System. For the new HIV diagnoses of heterosexuals and MSM in both cities, we estimated the growth rates by fitting different sub-exponential models. Heat maps are used to show their age patterns. We used histograms to compare these patterns by birth cohort.The MSM epidemics grew significantly in both cities. Chongqing experienced quadratic growth in HIV reported cases with an estimated growth rate of 0.086 per week and a "deceleration rate" of 0.673. HIV reported cases of MSM in Shenzhen grew even more drastically with a growth rate of 0.033 per week and "deceleration rate" of 0.794. The new infections are mainly affecting the ages of 18 to 30 in Chongqing and ages of 20 to 35 in Shenzhen. They peaked in early 1990's and mid-1990's birth cohorts in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively. The HIV epidemic among heterosexuals grew rapidly in both cities. The growth rates were estimated as 0.02 and 0.028 in Chongqing and Shenzhen respectively whereas the "deceleration rates" were 0.878 and 0.790 in these two places. It affected mostly aged 18 to 75 in males and 18 to 65 in females in Chongqing and aged 18 to 45 in males and 18 to 50 in females in Shenzhen in 2015. In Chongqing, the heterosexual female epidemics display two peaks in HIV diagnoses in the birth cohorts of early 1950's and early 1980's, with heterosexual male epidemics peaked in early 1940's and early 1960's. The heterosexual male and female epidemics display higher rates in the birth cohort 1940-1960, than the birth cohort 1960-1990. It peaked in birth cohorts of 1950's and 1980's in Shenzhen.We revealed striking differences in epidemic growth

  10. Flight height preference for oviposition of mosquito (Diptera: Culicidae) vectors of sylvatic yellow fever virus near the hydroelectric reservoir of Simplício, Minas Gerais, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alencar, Jeronimo; Morone, Fernanda; De Mello, Cecília Ferreira; Dégallier, Nicolas; Lucio, Paulo Sérgio; de Serra-Freire, Nicolau Maués; Guimarães, Anthony Erico

    2013-07-01

    In this study, the oviposition behavior of mosquito species exhibiting acrodendrophilic habits was investigated. The study was conducted near the Simplicio Hydroelectic Reservoir (SHR) located on the border of the states of Minas Gerais and Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. Samples were collected using oviposition traps installed in forest vegetation cover between 1.70 and 4.30 m above ground level during the months of April, June, August, October, and December of 2011. Haemagogus janthinomys (Dyar), Haemagogus leucocelaenus (Dyar and Shannon), Aedes albopictus (Skuse), and Aedes terrens (Walker) specimens were present among the collected samples, the first two of which being proven vectors of sylvatic yellow fever (SYF) in Brazil and the latter is a vector of dengue in mainland Asia. As the data set was zero-inflated, a specific Poisson-based model was used for the statistical analysis. When all four species were considered in the model, only heights used for egg laying and months of sampling were explaining the distribution. However, grouping the species under the genera Haemagogus Williston and Aedes Meigen showed a significant preference for higher traps of the former. Considering the local working population of SHR is very large, fluctuating, and potentially exposed to SYF, and that this virus occurs in almost all Brazilian states, monitoring of Culicidae in Brazil is essential for assessing the risk of transmission of this arbovirus.

  11. Haemagogus leucocelaenus and Other Mosquitoes Potentially Associated With Sylvatic Yellow Fever In Cantareira State Park In the São Paulo Metropolitan Area, Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mucci, Luis Filipe; Medeiros-Sousa, Antônio Ralph; Ceretti-Júnior, Walter; Fernandes, Aristides; Camargo, Amanda Alves; Evangelista, Eduardo; de Oliveira Christe, Rafael; Montes, Joyce; Teixeira, Renildo Souza; Marrelli, Mauro Toledo

    2016-12-01

    The aim of this work was to investigate whether Haemagogus leucocelaenus and other mosquito species associated with sylvatic transmission of yellow fever virus are present in Cantareira State Park (CSP) in the São Paulo Metropolitan Area (SPMA). From October 2015 to March 2016, adult mosquitoes were captured with the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention traps, manual battery-powered aspirators, and Shannon traps; larvae and pupae were collected in natural and artificial breeding sites. A total of 109 adult mosquito specimens and 30 immature forms belonging to 11 taxonomic categories in 4 genera (Aedes, Psorophora, Sabethes, and Haemagogus) were collected, including Hg. leucocelaenus, the main vector of yellow fever. The entomological findings of the present study indicate that the area is of strategic importance for yellow fever surveillance not only because of the significant numbers of humans and nonhuman primates circulating in CSP and its vicinity but also because it represents a potential route for the disease to be introduced to the SPMA.

  12. Epidemic dropsy: A mimic of scleroderma?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anupam Wakhlu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Systemic sclerosis (SSc is an autoimmune connective tissue disease involving the skin and internal organs and characterized pathologically by microvascular damage and increased deposition of connective tissue. Skin changes seen in SSc include edema, inflammation, induration, thickening, and progressive skin fibrosis. Histologically, skin fibrosis, accumulation of compact collagen in the dermis, effacement of rete pegs, infiltration by CD4+ T cells, and skin atrophy are observed. The “toxic oil syndrome” reported from Spain caused an outbreak of a scleroderma-like illness and was caused by ingestion of contaminated rapeseed cooking oil. Epidemic dropsy is caused by ingestion of mustard oil contaminated with the oil of Argemone mexicana. The major alkaloids in Argemone oil are sanguinarine and dihydrosanguinarine. These alkaloids produce widespread capillary dilatation, increased capillary permeability, and endothelial proliferation, akin to the toxic oil syndrome. Cutaneous manifestations include erythematous and tender bilaterally symmetrical pitting edema usually involving lower limbs, skin thickening and tethering, pigmentation, and presence of telangiectasias. The dermatopathology observed in epidemic dropsy includes atrophy and flattening of rete pegs, hypertrophy of and deposition of collagen, vascular dilatation and proliferation, and subcutaneous inflammation and fibrosis. Epidemic dropsy usually presents with subacute multisystem involvement, which may mimic a connective tissue disease. Skin involvement in epidemic dropsy may closely mimic cutaneous manifestations in SSc, both clinically and histologically. Thus, the clinician needs to be aware that epidemic dropsy with cutaneous involvement, especially if encountered sporadically, may be mistakenly diagnosed as scleroderma.

  13. Dimensionality reduction in epidemic spreading models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frasca, M.; Rizzo, A.; Gallo, L.; Fortuna, L.; Porfiri, M.

    2015-09-01

    Complex dynamical systems often exhibit collective dynamics that are well described by a reduced set of key variables in a low-dimensional space. Such a low-dimensional description offers a privileged perspective to understand the system behavior across temporal and spatial scales. In this work, we propose a data-driven approach to establish low-dimensional representations of large epidemic datasets by using a dimensionality reduction algorithm based on isometric features mapping (ISOMAP). We demonstrate our approach on synthetic data for epidemic spreading in a population of mobile individuals. We find that ISOMAP is successful in embedding high-dimensional data into a low-dimensional manifold, whose topological features are associated with the epidemic outbreak. Across a range of simulation parameters and model instances, we observe that epidemic outbreaks are embedded into a family of closed curves in a three-dimensional space, in which neighboring points pertain to instants that are close in time. The orientation of each curve is unique to a specific outbreak, and the coordinates correlate with the number of infected individuals. A low-dimensional description of epidemic spreading is expected to improve our understanding of the role of individual response on the outbreak dynamics, inform the selection of meaningful global observables, and, possibly, aid in the design of control and quarantine procedures.

  14. The epidemic of Tuberculosis on vaccinated population

    Science.gov (United States)

    Syahrini, Intan; Sriwahyuni; Halfiani, Vera; Meurah Yuni, Syarifah; Iskandar, Taufiq; Rasudin; Ramli, Marwan

    2017-09-01

    Tuberculosis is an infectious disease which has caused a large number of mortality in Indonesia. This disease is caused by Mycrobacterium tuberculosis. Besides affecting lung, this disease also affects other organs such as lymph gland, intestine, kidneys, uterus, bone, and brain. This article discusses the epidemic of tuberculosis through employing the SEIR model. Here, the population is divided into four compartments which are susceptible, exposed, infected and recovered. The susceptible population is further grouped into two which are vaccinated group and unvaccinated group. The behavior of the epidemic is investigated through analysing the equilibrium of the model. The result shows that administering vaccine to the susceptible population contributes to the reduction of the tuberculosis epidemic rate.

  15. Epidemic Spreading in Unidirectional Mobile Agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nagatani, Takashi; Ichinose, Genki; Tainaka, Kei-ichi

    2017-11-01

    We present an epidemic model combined with a traffic cellular automaton. Each agent or individual is either susceptible (S) or infected (I). An agent with a certain density moves to a fixed direction on one-dimensional lattice. Simulations for SIS model show that the epidemic spreads via migration. We find a dynamical phase transition between infectious and non-infectious phases. If the density exceeds the critical limit ρC, the epidemic spreads into the population. The value of ρC decreases along with the recovery rate as predicted by mean-field theory. However, this theory cannot explain the simulation result that a traffic jam strongly affects the phase transition. It is found that the minimum value of ρC corresponds to the critical value of the jamming transition.

  16. Epidemic and Cascading Survivability of Complex Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Manzano, Marc; Calle, Eusebi; Ripoll, Jordi

    2014-01-01

    Our society nowadays is governed by complex networks, examples being the power grids, telecommunication networks, biological networks, and social networks. It has become of paramount importance to understand and characterize the dynamic events (e.g. failures) that might happen in these complex...... networks. For this reason, in this paper, we propose two measures to evaluate the vulnerability of complex networks in two different dynamic multiple failure scenarios: epidemic-like and cascading failures. Firstly, we present epidemic survivability ( ES ), a new network measure that describes...... the vulnerability of each node of a network under a specific epidemic intensity. Secondly, we propose cascading survivability ( CS ), which characterizes how potentially injurious a node is according to a cascading failure scenario. Then, we show that by using the distribution of values obtained from ES and CS...

  17. Different Epidemic Models on Complex Networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Small, Michael; Fu Xinchu

    2009-01-01

    Models for diseases spreading are not just limited to SIS or SIR. For instance, for the spreading of AIDS/HIV, the susceptible individuals can be classified into different cases according to their immunity, and similarly, the infected individuals can be sorted into different classes according to their infectivity. Moreover, some diseases may develop through several stages. Many authors have shown that the individuals' relation can be viewed as a complex network. So in this paper, in order to better explain the dynamical behavior of epidemics, we consider different epidemic models on complex networks, and obtain the epidemic threshold for each case. Finally, we present numerical simulations for each case to verify our results.

  18. GENERAL: Epidemic spreading on networks with vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Hong-Jing; Duan, Zhi-Sheng; Chen, Guan-Rong; Li, Rong

    2009-08-01

    In this paper, a new susceptible-infected-susceptible (SIS) model on complex networks with imperfect vaccination is proposed. Two types of epidemic spreading patterns (the recovered individuals have or have not immunity) on scale-free networks are discussed. Both theoretical and numerical analyses are presented. The epidemic thresholds related to the vaccination rate, the vaccination-invalid rate and the vaccination success rate on scale-free networks are demonstrated, showing different results from the reported observations. This reveals that whether or not the epidemic can spread over a network under vaccination control is determined not only by the network structure but also by the medicine's effective duration. Moreover, for a given infective rate, the proportion of individuals to vaccinate can be calculated theoretically for the case that the recovered nodes have immunity. Finally, simulated results are presented to show how to control the disease prevalence.

  19. Urgent epidemic control mechanism for aviation networks

    KAUST Repository

    Peng, Chengbin

    2011-01-01

    In the current century, the highly developed transportation system can not only boost the economy, but also greatly accelerate the spreading of epidemics. While some epidemic diseases may infect quite a number of people ahead of our awareness, the health care resources such as vaccines and the medical staff are usually locally or even globally insufficient. In this research, with the network of major aviation routes as an example, we present a method to determine the optimal locations to allocate the medical service in order to minimize the impact of the infectious disease with limited resources. Specifically, we demonstrate that when the medical resources are insufficient, we should concentrate our efforts on the travelers with the objective of effectively controlling the spreading rate of the epidemic diseases. © 2011 Springer-Verlag Berlin Heidelberg.

  20. Mitigating the future impact of Cholera Epidemics

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Woodborne, S

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available . 2005. Climate Drives the Meningitis Epidemics Onset in West Africa. PLoS Medicine, 2: 0043-0049. TAMPLIN, M.L., GAUZENS, A.L., HUQ,A., SACK, D.A. & COLWELL, R.R. 1990. COLWELL. Attachment of Vibrio cholerae Serogroup 01 to Zooplankton...

  1. Police Brutality--the New Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sandoval, Ruben; Martinez, Douglas R.

    1978-01-01

    Recently, incidents of police abuse against Hispanics have increased so rapidly that the phenomenon has been called an epidemic. Of special concern to Hispanic leaders is the lack of Federal intervention in these police brutality cases. A list of 56 documented cases involving police brutality against Hispanics is included. (Author/NQ)

  2. Phylogenetics of the Danish HIV epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Audelin, Anne Margrethe; Cowan, Susan A; Obel, Niels

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND:: In Denmark 300 new individuals are diagnosed with HIV every year, despite decades of public health campaigns aimed to raise awareness of potential risk behaviour for HIV transmission. It is important to identify the driving forces of the epidemic, to enable more targeted campaigns...

  3. The Prescription Opioid Pain Medication Overdose Epidemic

    Centers for Disease Control (CDC) Podcasts

    2016-04-19

    Overdose related to prescription opioids has become an epidemic. This podcast discusses the risks of this type of drug sometimes used to treat pain, and how to protect yourself. .  Created: 4/19/2016 by National Center for Chronic Disease Prevention and Health Promotion (NCCDPHP).   Date Released: 4/19/2016.

  4. Acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis epidemics and outbreaks of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    An epidemic of acute conjunctivitis in Dar es Salaam in 2010 demonstrated the importance of a strong infectious diseases epidemiological surveillance network to minimise disease outbreaks. Misunderstanding of the causes and management of diseases explains the repetitive nature of acute haemorrhagic conjunctivitis ...

  5. Epidemic spastic paraparesis in Bandundu (Zaire).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carton, H; Kayembe, K; Kabeya; Odio; Billiau, A; Maertens, K

    1986-06-01

    Epidemiological findings of twenty sporadic cases of epidemic spastic paraparesis (buka-buka) in three areas of Bandundu (Zaire) are reported. These findings suggest the involvement of an infectious agent and do not support the hypothesis of a dietary cyanide intoxication, which has been advanced to explain the outbreak of a very similar disease (Mantakassa) in Mozambique.

  6. School Violence, the Media's Phanton Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Best, Joel

    2002-01-01

    Argues that public perceptions of an epidemic of school violence are media-induced; asserts that violence in schools declined during the 1990s; supports assertion with evidence from the National School Safety Center; states the estimates of bullying in school are exaggerated. (PKP)

  7. Cholera Epidemic Control | Zachariah | Malawi Medical Journal

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Malawi Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 13, No 1 (2001) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Cholera Epidemic Control. R Zachariah. Full Text: EMAIL FREE ...

  8. Social epidemics in the aftermath of disasters.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    IJzermans, C.J.

    2002-01-01

    Issue/problem: After disasters, terrorist attacks and wars social epidemics of medically unexplained physical symptoms/syndromes (ups) are often seen. In modern times people feel more vulnerable and especially under pressure of those incidents, everyday symptoms are interpreted as disease and

  9. Epidemics can be prevented with a Doctor on Call

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    First page Back Continue Last page Overview Graphics. Epidemics can be prevented with a Doctor on Call. A potential epidemic of Chicken Pox was halted by a simple email to the right people. Instant response from the Government Doctors.

  10. Genetic shifts in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus epidemic clones and toxin gene profiles in Japan: comparative analysis among pre-epidemic, epidemic and post-epidemic phases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osaka, Shunsuke; Okuzumi, Katsuko; Koide, Shota; Tamai, Kiyoko; Sato, Tomoaki; Tanimoto, Koichi; Tomita, Haruyoshi; Suzuki, Masahiro; Nagano, Yukiko; Shibayama, Keigo; Arakawa, Yoshichika; Nagano, Noriyuki

    2018-03-01

    The decline in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) isolation rates has become a general observation worldwide, including Japan. We hypothesized that some genetic shift in MRSA might cause this phenomenon, and therefore we investigated the genetic profiles among MRSA clinical isolates obtained from three different epidemic phases in Japan. A total of 353 MRSA isolates were selected from 202 medical facilities in 1990 (pre-epidemic phase), 2004 (epidemic phase) and 2016 (post-epidemic phase). Molecular typing was performed by PCR detection of 22 genes using the polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-based ORF typing (POT) system, including an additional eight genes including small genomic islets and seven toxin genes. Isolates with a POT1 of score 93, identified as presumed clonal complex (pCC)5-staphylococcal cassette chromosome mec (SCCmec) type II including ST5-SCCmec type II New York/Japan clone, represented the major epidemic MRSA lineage in 1990 and 2004. In 2016, however, a marked decrease in isolates with a POT1 score of 93, along with changes in the epidemiology of toxin genes carried, was noted, where the carriers of tst genes including the tst-sec combination were markedly reduced, and those possessing the seb gene alone were markedly increased. Rather, isolates with a POT1 score of 106, including pCC1 or pCC8 among the isolates with SCCmec type IV, which often links to community-associated MRSA, were predominant. Interestingly, the pCC1 and pCC8 lineages were related to sea and tst-sec carriage, respectively. Over time, a transition in MRSA genetic profiles from a POT1 score of 93 in 1990 and 2004 to 106 in 2014 was found in Japan.

  11. A comparative study of Trypanosoma cruzi infection in sylvatic mammals from a protected and a disturbed area in the Argentine Chaco.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orozco, M M; Enriquez, G F; Cardinal, M V; Piccinali, R V; Gürtler, R E

    2016-03-01

    Understanding the complex epidemiology of Trypanosoma cruzi transmission cycles requires comparative studies in widely different environments. We assessed the occurrence of T. cruzi infection in sylvatic mammals, their infectiousness to the vector, and parasite genotypes in a protected area of the Argentine Chaco, and compared them with information obtained similarly in a nearby disturbed area. A total of 278 mammals from >23 species in the protected area were diagnosed for T. cruzi infection using xenodiagnosis, kDNA-PCR and nuclear satellite DNA-PCR (SAT) from blood samples. The relative abundance and species composition differed substantially between areas. Didelphis albiventris opossums were less abundant in the protected area; had a significantly lower body mass index, and a stage structure biased toward earlier stages. The capture of armadillos was lower in the protected area. The composite prevalence of T. cruzi infection across host species was significantly lower in the protected area (11.1%) than in the disturbed area (22.1%), and heterogeneous across species groups. The prevalence of infection in D. albiventris and Thylamys pusilla opossums was significantly lower in the protected area (nil for D. albiventris), whereas infection in sigmodontine rodents was three times higher in the protected area (17.5 versus 5.7%). Parasite isolates from the two xenodiagnosis-positive mammals (1 Dasypus novemcinctus and 1 Conepatus chinga) were typed as TcIII; both specimens were highly infectious to Triatoma infestans. Fat-tailed opossums, bats and rodents were kDNA-PCR-positive and xenodiagnosis-negative. Desmodus rotundus and Myotis bats were found infected with T. cruzi for the first time in the Gran Chaco. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. Parameter Scaling for Epidemic Size in a Spatial Epidemic Model with Mobile Individuals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chiyori T Urabe

    Full Text Available In recent years, serious infectious diseases tend to transcend national borders and widely spread in a global scale. The incidence and prevalence of epidemics are highly influenced not only by pathogen-dependent disease characteristics such as the force of infection, the latent period, and the infectious period, but also by human mobility and contact patterns. However, the effect of heterogeneous mobility of individuals on epidemic outcomes is not fully understood. Here, we aim to elucidate how spatial mobility of individuals contributes to the final epidemic size in a spatial susceptible-exposed-infectious-recovered (SEIR model with mobile individuals in a square lattice. After illustrating the interplay between the mobility parameters and the other parameters on the spatial epidemic spreading, we propose an index as a function of system parameters, which largely governs the final epidemic size. The main contribution of this study is to show that the proposed index is useful for estimating how parameter scaling affects the final epidemic size. To demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed index, we show that there is a positive correlation between the proposed index computed with the real data of human airline travels and the actual number of positive incident cases of influenza B in the entire world, implying that the growing incidence of influenza B is attributed to increased human mobility.

  13. Outbreak or Epidemic? How Obama's Language Choice Transformed the Ebola Outbreak Into an Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesser-Edelsburg, Anat; Shir-Raz, Yaffa; Bar-Lev, Oshrat Sassoni; James, James J; Green, Manfred S

    2016-08-01

    Our aim was to examine in what terms leading newspapers' online sites described the current Ebola crisis. We employed a quantitative content analysis of terms attributed to Ebola. We found and analyzed 582 articles published between March 23 and September 30, 2014, on the online websites of 3 newspapers: The New York Times, Daily Mail, and Ynet. Our theoretical framework drew from the fields of health communication and emerging infectious disease communication, including such concepts as framing media literacy, risk signatures, and mental models. We found that outbreak and epidemic were used interchangeably in the articles. From September 16, 2014, onward, epidemic predominated, corresponding to when President Barack Obama explicitly referred to Ebola as an epidemic. Prior to Obama's speech, 86.8% of the articles (323) used the term outbreak and only 8.6% (32) used the term epidemic. Subsequently, both terms were used almost the same amount: 53.8% of the articles (113) used the term outbreak and 53.3% (112) used the term epidemic. Effective communication is crucial during public health emergencies such as Ebola, because language framing affects the decision-making process of social judgments and actions. The choice of one term (outbreak) over another (epidemic) can create different conceptualizations of the disease, thereby influencing the risk signature. (Disaster Med Public Health Preparedness. 2016;10:669-673).

  14. Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Transferring the Malaria Epidemic Prediction Model to Users in East Africa. In the highlands of East Africa, epidemic malaria is an emerging climate-related hazard that urgently needs addressing. Malaria incidence increased by 337% during the 1987 epidemic in Rwanda. In Tanzania, Uganda and Kenya, malaria incidence ...

  15. Epidemic dynamics and endemic states in complex networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Vespignani, Alessandro

    2001-01-01

    We study by analytical methods and large scale simulations a dynamical model for the spreading of epidemics in complex networks. In networks with exponentially bounded connectivity we recover the usual epidemic behavior with a threshold defining a critical point below that the infection prevalence is null. On the contrary, on a wide range of scale-free networks we observe the absence of an epidemic threshold and its associated critical behavior. This implies that scale-free networks are prone to the spreading and the persistence of infections whatever spreading rate the epidemic agents might possess. These results can help understanding computer virus epidemics and other spreading phenomena on communication and social networks

  16. Epidemic of charcoal burning suicide in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoshioka, Eiji; Hanley, Sharon J B; Kawanishi, Yasuyuki; Saijo, Yasuaki

    2014-01-01

    The charcoal burning suicide epidemics in both Hong Kong and Taiwan have been well documented. However, little is known about the situation in Japan. To examine the impact of charcoal burning suicide on the overall and other method-specific suicide rates between 1998 and 2007 in Japan. Using data obtained from the Vital Statistics of Japan, negative binomial regression analyses were performed to investigate the impact of the charcoal burning method. In males and females aged 15-24 and 25-44 years, the charcoal burning epidemic led to a substantial increase in overall suicides, without a decrease in other methods. In all other age groups, no such trend was observed. In young Japanese, the charcoal burning method may have appealed to individuals who might not have chosen other highly or relatively lethal methods, and consequently led to an increase in overall suicides.

  17. [The depression epidemic does not exist].

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Feltz-Cornelis, Christina M

    2009-01-01

    There has been much discussion in the media about the question of the existence of a depression epidemic. This leads on to the questions of whether the social and economic approaches are adequate, and what the alternatives are. The concept of the disease 'depression' can be defined using a medical model, or from a patient's or a societal perspective. From a medical perspective, indeed a depression epidemic has ensued from the increased prosperity and the associated decompression of the mortality rate. Society responded with preventative measures and policies aimed at improving functioning in the workplace. However, patients with a major depressive disorder (MDD) who are eligible for treatment are often not motivated to take it up, or are undertreated. Research is necessary in order to explore what patients think about the identification and treatment of depression. The confusion regarding the concept of depression found in the media, needs to be cleared.

  18. Eight challenges for network epidemic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorenzo Pellis

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Networks offer a fertile framework for studying the spread of infection in human and animal populations. However, owing to the inherent high-dimensionality of networks themselves, modelling transmission through networks is mathematically and computationally challenging. Even the simplest network epidemic models present unanswered questions. Attempts to improve the practical usefulness of network models by including realistic features of contact networks and of host–pathogen biology (e.g. waning immunity have made some progress, but robust analytical results remain scarce. A more general theory is needed to understand the impact of network structure on the dynamics and control of infection. Here we identify a set of challenges that provide scope for active research in the field of network epidemic models.

  19. New Approaches to the Methamphetamine Epidemic

    OpenAIRE

    Zusman, Mara B.

    2004-01-01

    Methamphetamine abuse has become an epidemic in the United States. As methamphetamine becomes increasingly available, more and more people are trying – and becoming addicted to – this potent drug. But although methamphetamine is made using over-the-counter (OTC) drugs containing pseudoephedrine, shifting OTC drugs containing pseudoephedrine to prescription status is not the solution to the methamphetamine crisis. Rather, society must adopt a comprehensive...

  20. Connecting the obesity and the narcissism epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemaitre, Bruno

    2016-10-01

    Obesity and metabolic syndromes are major threats to health in both developed and developing countries. This opinion article is a holistic attempt to understand the obesity epidemic, by connecting it to the widespread narcissism in society. The narcissism epidemic refers to an increased prevalence of status-striving individualism and a decreased sense of community, observed in Westerns populations and spreading worldwide. Based on social personality and evolutionary psychology approaches, I speculate that this rise of narcissism underlies a steep social hierarchy resulting in increase of social stress. This social stress markedly affects individuals who are sensitive to social hierarchy dominance due to their personality, yet are relegated at a lower social position. I speculate that over-eating is one major mechanism for coping with this stress, and discuss the possibility that visceral fat may constitute an adaptive behaviour to the lower social hierarchy position, which is perceived as unjust. Connecting the prevalence of obesity to the narcissism epidemic allows for a more thorough examination of factors, which contribute to obesity, which includes early difficult childhood experience, lower rank, and the overall competitive framework of the society. Copyright © 2016 The Author. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  1. Inferring epidemic network topology from surveillance data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiang Wan

    Full Text Available The transmission of infectious diseases can be affected by many or even hidden factors, making it difficult to accurately predict when and where outbreaks may emerge. One approach at the moment is to develop and deploy surveillance systems in an effort to detect outbreaks as timely as possible. This enables policy makers to modify and implement strategies for the control of the transmission. The accumulated surveillance data including temporal, spatial, clinical, and demographic information, can provide valuable information with which to infer the underlying epidemic networks. Such networks can be quite informative and insightful as they characterize how infectious diseases transmit from one location to another. The aim of this work is to develop a computational model that allows inferences to be made regarding epidemic network topology in heterogeneous populations. We apply our model on the surveillance data from the 2009 H1N1 pandemic in Hong Kong. The inferred epidemic network displays significant effect on the propagation of infectious diseases.

  2. The glue ear 'epidemic': a historical perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderson, David

    2011-12-01

    This paper explores the historical context of the dramatic rise in surgery for glue ear in the mid-20th century, and questions the published assertion that this represented a manufactured 'epidemic'. In examining historical sources, the reader's theoretical viewpoint greatly influences their conclusions: the sustained rise in treatment for glue ear may be seen as the advance of science in a golden age or the resistance of insular professionals to reason in the light of new scientific study methods. Current views on the practice of medicine, consumerism, science and standardisation, rationing and the nature of 'truth' all affect the way that we see this period. Technological advances clearly allowed better diagnosis and more effective treatment, but these did not appear to drive an 'epidemic', rather they were developed to meet the pre-existing challenges of otological practice. The proposition that an 'epidemic' was created does not appear to have any solid grounding. Society's perception of what constitutes disease and what needs treatment may have evolved, but the prevalence of other important diseases changed dramatically over this time period, and a real change in the epidemiology of glue ear cannot be dismissed. In defining the case for and against surgical treatment, a solely positivist, quantitative worldview cannot give us a complete picture of benefit and risk to individuals, families and society at large.

  3. Mechanistic movement models to understand epidemic spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fofana, Abdou Moutalab; Hurford, Amy

    2017-05-05

    An overlooked aspect of disease ecology is considering how and why animals come into contact with one and other resulting in disease transmission. Mathematical models of disease spread frequently assume mass-action transmission, justified by stating that susceptible and infectious hosts mix readily, and foregoing any detailed description of host movement. Numerous recent studies have recorded, analysed and modelled animal movement. These movement models describe how animals move with respect to resources, conspecifics and previous movement directions and have been used to understand the conditions for the occurrence and the spread of infectious diseases when hosts perform a type of movement. Here, we summarize the effect of the different types of movement on the threshold conditions for disease spread. We identify gaps in the literature and suggest several promising directions for future research. The mechanistic inclusion of movement in epidemic models may be beneficial for the following two reasons. Firstly, the estimation of the transmission coefficient in an epidemic model is possible because animal movement data can be used to estimate the rate of contacts between conspecifics. Secondly, unsuccessful transmission events, where a susceptible host contacts an infectious host but does not become infected can be quantified. Following an outbreak, this enables disease ecologists to identify 'near misses' and to explore possible alternative epidemic outcomes given shifts in ecological or immunological parameters.This article is part of the themed issue 'Opening the black box: re-examining the ecology and evolution of parasite transmission'. © 2017 The Author(s).

  4. Memory effects on epidemic evolution: The susceptible-infected-recovered epidemic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saeedian, M.; Khalighi, M.; Azimi-Tafreshi, N.; Jafari, G. R.; Ausloos, M.

    2017-02-01

    Memory has a great impact on the evolution of every process related to human societies. Among them, the evolution of an epidemic is directly related to the individuals' experiences. Indeed, any real epidemic process is clearly sustained by a non-Markovian dynamics: memory effects play an essential role in the spreading of diseases. Including memory effects in the susceptible-infected-recovered (SIR) epidemic model seems very appropriate for such an investigation. Thus, the memory prone SIR model dynamics is investigated using fractional derivatives. The decay of long-range memory, taken as a power-law function, is directly controlled by the order of the fractional derivatives in the corresponding nonlinear fractional differential evolution equations. Here we assume "fully mixed" approximation and show that the epidemic threshold is shifted to higher values than those for the memoryless system, depending on this memory "length" decay exponent. We also consider the SIR model on structured networks and study the effect of topology on threshold points in a non-Markovian dynamics. Furthermore, the lack of access to the precise information about the initial conditions or the past events plays a very relevant role in the correct estimation or prediction of the epidemic evolution. Such a "constraint" is analyzed and discussed.

  5. Epidemic optic neuropathy in Cuba. Eye findings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sadun, A A; Martone, J F; Muci-Mendoza, R; Reyes, L; DuBois, L; Silva, J C; Roman, G; Caballero, B

    1994-05-01

    To characterize and establish a clinical definition of the optic neuropathy that appeared in epidemic form in Cuba in 1992 and 1993. At the invitation of the Cuban Ministry of Health, Havana, members of ORBIS International and the Pan American Health Organization, assembled teams that traveled to Cuba in May 1993. We were initially briefed by Cuban national experts in the areas of virology, nutrition, toxicology, ophthalmology, neurology, and public health. We then examined 20 patients on our own. Thirteen of these patients underwent a comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic examination, including neurologic examination, ophthalmologic examination, visual fields, optic nerve function studies, contrast sensitivity studies, and funduscopy. We returned 4 months later to perform an additional 12 comprehensive neuro-ophthalmologic and follow-up examinations. Only seven of the 13 patients who were alleged to have the optic form of the epidemic and who were rigorously and systematically examined on the first visit demonstrated a bilateral optic neuropathy. These seven patients had several features that included decreased visual acuity, poor color vision, central scotomas, decreased contrast sensitivity, saccadic eye movements, and most prominent and distinctive of all, nerve fiber layer wedge defects of the papillomacular bundle. Our clinical definition was then implemented by the Cuban ophthalmologists and epidemiologists. On returning 4 months later, we found that all newly presented patients were correctly diagnosed to have the epidemic disease. With the new case definition and the application of a few simple psychophysical tests, the false-positive rate of diagnosis became much lower. After vitamin therapy, we reexamined the patients seen on our initial visit, and all showed marked improvement. The Cuban epidemic was characterized by an optic neuropathy with features that were similar to those of tobacco/alcohol amblyopia and Leber's optic atrophy. Recent political

  6. An epidemic model for the future progression of the current Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Righetto, L.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2012-04-01

    As a major cholera epidemic progresses in Haiti, and the figures of the infection, up to December 2011, climb to 522,000 cases and 7,000 deaths, the development of general models to track and predict the evolution of the outbreak, so as to guide the allocation of medical supplies and staff, is gaining notable urgency. We propose here a spatially explicit epidemic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible and infected individuals as well as the redistribution of Vibrio cholera, the causative agent of the disease, among different human communities. In particular, we model two spreading pathways: the advection of pathogens through hydrologic connections and the dissemination due to human mobility described by means of a gravity-like model. To this end the country has been divided into hydrologic units based on drainage directions derived from a digital terrain model. Moreover the population of each unit has been estimated from census data downscaled to 1 km x 1 km resolution via remotely sensed geomorphological information (LandScan project). The model directly accounts for the role of rainfall patterns in driving the seasonality of cholera outbreaks. The two main outbreaks in fact occurred during the rainy seasons (October and May) when extensive floodings severely worsened the sanitation conditions and, in turn, raised the risk of infection. The model capability to reproduce the spatiotemporal features of the epidemic up to date grants robustness to the foreseen future development. To this end, we generate realistic scenario of future precipitation in order to forecast possible epidemic paths up to the end of the 2013. In this context, the duration of acquired immunity, a hotly debated topic in the scientific community, emerges as a controlling factor for progression of the epidemic in the near future. The framework presented here can straightforwardly be used to evaluate the effectiveness of alternative intervention strategies like mass vaccinations

  7. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    McKelvie William R

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Methods Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. Results The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean + 0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Conclusions Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  8. Defining and detecting malaria epidemics in south-east Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKelvie, William R; Haghdoost, Ali Akbar; Raeisi, Ahmad

    2012-03-23

    A lack of consensus on how to define malaria epidemics has impeded the evaluation of early detection systems. This study aimed to develop local definitions of malaria epidemics in a known malarious area of Iran, and to use that definition to evaluate the validity of several epidemic alert thresholds. Epidemic definition variables generated from surveillance data were plotted against weekly malaria counts to assess which most accurately labelled aberrations. Various alert thresholds were then generated from weekly counts or log counts. Finally, the best epidemic definition was used to calculate and compare sensitivities, specificities, detection delays, and areas under ROC curves of the alert thresholds. The best epidemic definition used a minimum duration of four weeks and week-specific and overall smoothed geometric means plus 1.0 standard deviation. It defined 13 epidemics. A modified C-SUM alert of untransformed weekly counts using a threshold of mean+0.25 SD had the highest combined sensitivity and specificity. Untransformed C-SUM alerts also had the highest area under the ROC curve. Defining local malaria epidemics using objective criteria facilitated the evaluation of alert thresholds. This approach needs further study to refine epidemic definitions and prospectively evaluate epidemic alerts.

  9. Dynamical interplay between awareness and epidemic spreading in multiplex networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Granell, Clara; Gómez, Sergio; Arenas, Alex

    2013-09-20

    We present the analysis of the interrelation between two processes accounting for the spreading of an epidemic, and the information awareness to prevent its infection, on top of multiplex networks. This scenario is representative of an epidemic process spreading on a network of persistent real contacts, and a cyclic information awareness process diffusing in the network of virtual social contacts between the same individuals. The topology corresponds to a multiplex network where two diffusive processes are interacting affecting each other. The analysis using a microscopic Markov chain approach reveals the phase diagram of the incidence of the epidemics and allows us to capture the evolution of the epidemic threshold depending on the topological structure of the multiplex and the interrelation with the awareness process. Interestingly, the critical point for the onset of the epidemics has a critical value (metacritical point) defined by the awareness dynamics and the topology of the virtual network, from which the onset increases and the epidemics incidence decreases.

  10. Nine challenges for deterministic epidemic models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Roberts, Mick G; Andreasen, Viggo; Lloyd, Alun

    2015-01-01

    Deterministic models have a long history of being applied to the study of infectious disease epidemiology. We highlight and discuss nine challenges in this area. The first two concern the endemic equilibrium and its stability. We indicate the need for models that describe multi-strain infections......, infections with time-varying infectivity, and those where superinfection is possible. We then consider the need for advances in spatial epidemic models, and draw attention to the lack of models that explore the relationship between communicable and non-communicable diseases. The final two challenges concern...

  11. Heterogeneous Epidemic Model for Assessing Data Dissemination in Opportunistic Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rozanova, Liudmila; Alekseev, Vadim; Temerev, Alexander

    2014-01-01

    that amount of data transferred between network nodes possesses a Pareto distribution, implying scale-free properties. In this context, more heterogeneity in susceptibility means the less severe epidemic progression, and, on the contrary, more heterogeneity in infectivity leads to more severe epidemics...... — assuming that the other parameter (either heterogeneity or susceptibility) stays fixed. The results are general enough to be useful for estimating the epidemic progression with no significant acquired immunity — in the cases where Pareto distribution holds....

  12. Behavioral synchronization induced by epidemic spread in complex networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Mengfeng; Lou, Yijun; Duan, Jinqiao; Fu, Xinchu

    2017-06-01

    During the spread of an epidemic, individuals in realistic networks may exhibit collective behaviors. In order to characterize this kind of phenomenon and explore the correlation between collective behaviors and epidemic spread, in this paper, we construct several mathematical models (including without delay, with a coupling delay, and with double delays) of epidemic synchronization by applying the adaptive feedback motivated by real observations. By using Lyapunov function methods, we obtain the conditions for local and global stability of these epidemic synchronization models. Then, we illustrate that quenched mean-field theory is more accurate than heterogeneous mean-field theory in the prediction of epidemic synchronization. Finally, some numerical simulations are performed to complement our theoretical results, which also reveal some unexpected phenomena, for example, the coupling delay and epidemic delay influence the speed of epidemic synchronization. This work makes further exploration on the relationship between epidemic dynamics and synchronization dynamics, in the hope of being helpful to the study of other dynamical phenomena in the process of epidemic spread.

  13. Epidemics: Lessons from the past and current patterns of response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Paul

    2008-09-01

    Hippocrates gave the term 'epidemic' its medical meaning. From antiquity to modern times, the meaning of the word epidemic has continued to evolve. Over the centuries, researchers have reached an understanding of the varying aspects of epidemics and have tried to combat them. The role played by travel, trade, and human exchanges in the propagation of epidemic infectious diseases has been understood. In 1948, the World Health Organization was created and given the task of advancing ways of combating epidemics. An early warning system to combat epidemics has been implemented by the WHO. The Global Outbreak Alert and Response Network (GOARN) is collaboration between existing institutions and networks that pool their human and technical resources to fight outbreaks. Avian influenza constitutes currently the most deadly epidemic threat, with fears that it could rapidly reach pandemic proportions and put several thousands of lives in jeopardy. Thanks to the WHO's support, most of the world's countries have mobilised and implemented an 'Action Plan for Pandemic Influenza'. As a result, most outbreaks of the H5N1 avian flu virus have so far been speedily contained. Cases of dengue virus introduction in countries possessing every circumstance required for its epidemic spread provide another example pertinent to the prevention of epidemics caused by vector-borne pathogens.

  14. Resource allocation for epidemic control in metapopulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martial L Ndeffo Mbah

    Full Text Available Deployment of limited resources is an issue of major importance for decision-making in crisis events. This is especially true for large-scale outbreaks of infectious diseases. Little is known when it comes to identifying the most efficient way of deploying scarce resources for control when disease outbreaks occur in different but interconnected regions. The policy maker is frequently faced with the challenge of optimizing efficiency (e.g. minimizing the burden of infection while accounting for social equity (e.g. equal opportunity for infected individuals to access treatment. For a large range of diseases described by a simple SIRS model, we consider strategies that should be used to minimize the discounted number of infected individuals during the course of an epidemic. We show that when faced with the dilemma of choosing between socially equitable and purely efficient strategies, the choice of the control strategy should be informed by key measurable epidemiological factors such as the basic reproductive number and the efficiency of the treatment measure. Our model provides new insights for policy makers in the optimal deployment of limited resources for control in the event of epidemic outbreaks at the landscape scale.

  15. The opioid overdose epidemic: opportunities for pharmacists

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu LT

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Li-Tzy Wu,1–4 Udi E Ghitza,5 Anne L Burns,6 Paolo Mannelli,1 1Department of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, 2Department of Medicine, 3Duke Clinical Research Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, 4Center for Child and Family Policy, Sanford School of Public Policy, Duke University, Durham, NC, 5Center for Clinical Trials Network, National Institute on Drug Abuse, Bethesda, MD, 6American Pharmacists Association, Washington, DC, USA The USA is experiencing an opioid overdose epidemic. It has been driven largely by prescription opioids and intensified by a surge of illicit opioids (e.g., heroin and fentanyl.1,2 Drug-involved overdose, mainly opioids (e.g., prescription opioids and heroin, is a leading cause of accidental death in the USA. The opioid overdose epidemic has been escalating consistently for over a decade.2 Every day, an estimated 91 Americans die from opioid-related overdose.3 Opioid overdose appears to have disproportionally affected men, adults aged 25–64 years, and non-Hispanic whites.2

  16. Devastating epidemics in recent ages Greek populations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kotsiou, Antonia; Michalaki, Vasiliki; Anagnostopoulou, Helen N

    2017-12-01

    In the recent Greek ages the most devastating epidemics were plague, smallpox, leprosy and cholera. In 1816 plague struck the Ionian and Aegean Islands, mainland Greece, Constantinople and Smyrna. The Venetians ruling the Ionian Islands effectively combated plague in contrast to the Ottomans ruling all other regions. In 1922, plague appeared in Patras refugees who were expelled by the Turks from Smyrna and Asia Minor. Inoculation against smallpox was first performed in Thessaly by the Greek women, and the Greek doctors Emmanouel Timonis (1713, Oxford) and Jakovos Pylarinos (1715, Venice) made relevant scientific publications. The first leper colony opened in Chios Island. In Crete, Spinalonga was transformed into a leper island, which following the Independence War against Turkish occupation and the unification of Crete with Greece in 1913, was classified as an International Leper Hospital. Cholera struck Greece in 1853-1854 brought by the French troops during the Crimean War, and again during the Balkan Wars (1912-13) when the Bulgarian troops brought cholera to northern Greece. Due to successive wars, medical assistance was not always available, so desperate people turned many times to religion through processions in honor of local saints, for their salvation in epidemics.

  17. America's Opioid Epidemic: Supply and Demand Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, David J; Schumacher, Mark A

    2017-11-01

    America is in the midst of an opioid epidemic characterized by aggressive prescribing practices, highly prevalent opioid misuse, and rising rates of prescription and illicit opioid overdose-related deaths. Medical and lay public sentiment have become more cautious with respect to prescription opioid use in the past few years, but a comprehensive strategy to reduce our reliance on prescription opioids is lacking. Addressing this epidemic through reductions in unnecessary access to these drugs while implementing measures to reduce demand will be important components of any comprehensive solution. Key supply-side measures include avoiding overprescribing, reducing diversion, and discouraging misuse through changes in drug formulations. Important demand-side measures center around educating patients and clinicians regarding the pitfalls of opioid overuse and methods to avoid unnecessary exposure to these drugs. Anesthesiologists, by virtue of their expertise in the use of these drugs and their position in guiding opioid use around the time of surgery, have important roles to play in reducing patient exposure to opioids and providing education about appropriate use. Aside from the many immediate steps that can be taken, clinical and basic research directed at understanding the interaction between pain and opioid misuse is critical to identifying the optimal use of these powerful pain relievers in clinical practice.

  18. Nepalese origin of cholera epidemic in Haiti.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frerichs, R R; Keim, P S; Barrais, R; Piarroux, R

    2012-06-01

    Cholera appeared in Haiti in October 2010 for the first time in recorded history. The causative agent was quickly identified by the Haitian National Public Health Laboratory and the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention as Vibrio cholerae serogroup O1, serotype Ogawa, biotype El Tor. Since then, >500 000 government-acknowledged cholera cases and >7000 deaths have occurred, the largest cholera epidemic in the world, with the real death toll probably much higher. Questions of origin have been widely debated with some attributing the onset of the epidemic to climatic factors and others to human transmission. None of the evidence on origin supports climatic factors. Instead, recent epidemiological and molecular-genetic evidence point to the United Nations peacekeeping troops from Nepal as the source of cholera to Haiti, following their troop rotation in early October 2010. Such findings have important policy implications for shaping future international relief efforts. © 2012 The Authors. Clinical Microbiology and Infection © 2012 European Society of Clinical Microbiology and Infectious Diseases.

  19. [The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Cambodia].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soda, K; Morio, S; Tajima, K; Kitamura, K; Toba, M; Ito, A; Kihara, M; Ichikawa, S; Imai, M; Mizushima, S; Ohshige, K

    1997-05-01

    In December 1995 and March 1996, we visited institutes which were conducting epidemiological studied of HIV/AIDS in Cambodia, and obtained data for further collaborative study between Japan and Cambodia. Data included information on AIDS patients and HIV infected persons, and behavioral epidemiology of CSWs (Commercial Sex Workers). The cumulative reported number of AIDS patients and HIV infected persons in Cambodia was 86 and 2,536 cases respectively in 1995. The cause of infection was mostly heterosexual contact with very few cases from injecting drug use (IDU) and other causes. The seroprevalence rate of HIV antibody among donated blood rapidly increased from 0.08% in 1991 to 4.47% in 1995, and those among CSWs and pregnant women were 37.9% and 2.6%, respectively, in 1995. The average rate of condom use among CSWs was 66%, but the rate of usual usage was only 14%. These results indicate that the HIV/AIDS epidemic had spread rapidly through CSWs, that it had been spread among peoples in communities, and that usage of condoms among CSWs was insufficient in Cambodia. Without strong countermeasures against HIV/AIDS in this country, HIV/AIDS epidemic may spread significantly to not only peoples in this country but also those in neighbouring countries in the future.

  20. [Epidemic process of gonorrhea in modern world].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kostiukova, N N; Bekhalo, V A

    2009-01-01

    Gonorrhea in spite of its fully elucidated etiopathogenesis and available drugs for etiotropic therapy belongs to infections which are not controlled by vaccination due to absence of immunity formation. Analysis of scientific publication, statistical materials and WHO's data showed that epidemic process of gonorrhea infection depends mainly from people's behaviour, first of all, sexual. Modern epidemic process of gonorrhea infection consists from irregular increases and decreases of incidence due to various reasons. Reasons for increases of incidence appear to be simultaneous action of a range of biologic and anthropogenic factors. First reason--rapid increase of resistance of gonococci to widely used antibacterial preparations as well as synergy of pathogenic effects between HIV and gonococci; anthropogenic--wars, increase of high-risk groups due to urbanization, use of oral contraceptives, rise of prostitution, migration, inadequate access to medical care, poverty, intensification of intercourses (including hetero- and homosexual) between people, as well as demographic changes--increase of proportion of young people in population structure. Same but reciprocal factors lead to decrease of morbidity. Of them, the following were considered as most important: mass implementation of new effective antimicrobial drug as well as intensification of sanitary education, availability of early diagnostics and treatment, increase of material and cultural standards of life, decrease in number of persons belonging to high risk groups. Yet, capabilities of modern science expressed only in continuous development of new antibacterial drugs active against circulating population of gonococci, which is resistant to previously used drug.

  1. Colliding Epidemics and the Rise of Cryptococcosis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christina C. Chang

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Discovered more than 100 years ago as a human pathogen, the Cryptococcus neoformans–Cryptococcus gattii (C. neoformans–C. gattii complex has seen a large global resurgence in its association with clinical disease in the last 30 years. First isolated in fermenting peach juice, and identified as a human pathogen in 1894 in a patient with bone lesions, this environmental pathogen has now found niches in soil, trees, birds, and domestic pets. Cryptococcosis is well recognized as an opportunistic infection and was first noted to be associated with reticuloendothelial cancers in the 1950s. Since then, advances in transplant immunology, medical science and surgical techniques have led to increasing numbers of solid organ transplantations (SOT and hematological stem cell transplantations being performed, and the use of biological immunotherapeutics in increasingly high-risk and older individuals, have contributed to the further rise in cryptococcosis. Globally, however, the major driver for revivification of cryptococcosis is undoubtedly the HIV epidemic, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa where access to care and antiretroviral therapy remains limited and advanced immunodeficiency, poverty and malnutrition remains the norm. As a zoonotic disease, environmental outbreaks of both human and animal cryptococcosis have been reported, possibly driven by climate change. This is best exemplified by the resurgence of C. gattii infection in Vancouver Island, Canada, and the Pacific Northwest of the United States since 1999. Here we describe how the colliding epidemics of HIV, transplantation and immunologics, climate change and migration have contributed to the rise of cryptococcosis.

  2. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrahi, Katayoun; Emonet, Rémi; Cebrian, Manuel

    2014-01-01

    Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  3. Epidemic contact tracing via communication traces.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katayoun Farrahi

    Full Text Available Traditional contact tracing relies on knowledge of the interpersonal network of physical interactions, where contagious outbreaks propagate. However, due to privacy constraints and noisy data assimilation, this network is generally difficult to reconstruct accurately. Communication traces obtained by mobile phones are known to be good proxies for the physical interaction network, and they may provide a valuable tool for contact tracing. Motivated by this assumption, we propose a model for contact tracing, where an infection is spreading in the physical interpersonal network, which can never be fully recovered; and contact tracing is occurring in a communication network which acts as a proxy for the first. We apply this dual model to a dataset covering 72 students over a 9 month period, for which both the physical interactions as well as the mobile communication traces are known. Our results suggest that a wide range of contact tracing strategies may significantly reduce the final size of the epidemic, by mainly affecting its peak of incidence. However, we find that for low overlap between the face-to-face and communication interaction network, contact tracing is only efficient at the beginning of the outbreak, due to rapidly increasing costs as the epidemic evolves. Overall, contact tracing via mobile phone communication traces may be a viable option to arrest contagious outbreaks.

  4. Aedes albopictus em área rural do Brasil e implicações na transmissão de febre amarela silvestre Aedes albopictus in rural zone of Brazil and its implication in the sylvatic yellow fever transmission

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Almério de Castro Gomes

    1999-02-01

    Full Text Available Durante estudos ecológicos sobre mosquitos anofelíneos no município de Bataguassu, Estado de Mato Grosso do Sul, foram encontradas larvas e adultos de Aedes albopictus. Pela primeira vez sua introdução ocorre numa área enzoótica do vírus selvático da febre amarela no Brasil. Isto sugere risco potencial para transferência desse vírus para área urbana infestada com Aedes aegypti.Larvae and adult forms of Aedes albopictus were found during ecological study of anopheline mosquitos in the rural zone of the state of Mato Grosso do Sul in Brazil. This occurrence was registered, for the first time in Brazil, in an enzoootic area if sylvatic yellow fever virus. This implies a potential risk of the transfer of this virus to an urban area infested with Aedes aegypti.

  5. Unsynchronized influenza epidemics in two neighboring subtropical cities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiujuan Tang

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Objective: The aim of this study was to examine the synchrony of influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen, two neighboring subtropical cities in South China. Methods: Laboratory-confirmed influenza data for the period January 2006 to December 2016 were obtained from the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention and the Department of Health in Hong Kong. The population data were retrieved from the 2011 population censuses. The weekly rates of laboratory-confirmed influenza cases were compared between Shenzhen and Hong Kong. Results: Unsynchronized influenza epidemics between Hong Kong and Shenzhen were frequently observed during the study period. Influenza A/H1N1 caused a more severe pandemic in Hong Kong in 2009, but the subsequent seasonal epidemics showed similar magnitudes in both cities. Two influenza A/H3N2 dominant epidemic waves were seen in Hong Kong in 2015, but these epidemics were very minor in Shenzhen. More influenza B epidemics occurred in Shenzhen than in Hong Kong. Conclusions: Influenza epidemics appeared to be unsynchronized between Hong Kong and Shenzhen most of the time. Given the close geographical locations of these two cities, this could be due to the strikingly different age structures of their populations. Keywords: Influenza epidemics, Synchrony, Shenzhen, Hong Kong

  6. Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Risk from the frontlines of a hidden epidemic sexuality, masculinities and social pressures among men who have sex with men in South Africa: an overview. ... These factors are discussed in this paper with stress put particularly on the hiddenness of the MSM HIV epidemic, and it is concluded that the complex mix of factors ...

  7. Epidemic cerebrospinal meningitis in children at Federal Medical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Epidemic meningococcal meningitis is a major public health problem still affecting tropical countries, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa, which lies within African meningitis belt. Repeated large scale epidemics of CSM have been reported in northern Nigeria for the past four decades. It is one of the important causes of ...

  8. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    G. Magiorkinis (Gkikas); K. Angelis (Konstantinos); I. Mamais (Ioannis); Katzourakis, A. (Aris); A. Hatzakis (Angelos); J. Albert (Jan); Lawyer, G. (Glenn); O. Hamouda (Osamah); D. Struck (Daniel); J. Vercauteren (Jurgen); A. Wensing (Amj); I. Alexiev (Ivailo); B. Åsjö (Birgitta); C. Balotta (Claudia); Gomes, P. (Perpétua); R.J. Camacho (Ricardo Jorge); S. Coughlan (Suzie); A. Griskevicius (Algirdas); Z. Grossman (Zehava); Horban, A. (Anders); L.G. Kostrikis (Leondios); Lepej, S.J. (Snjezana J.); K. Liitsola (Kirsi); M. Linka (Marek); C. Nielsen; D. Otelea (Dan); R. Paredes (Roger); M. Poljak (Mario); E. Puchhammer-Stöckl (Elisabeth); J.C. Schmit; A. Sonnerborg (Anders); D. Stanekova (Danica); M. Stanojevic (Maja); Stylianou, D.C. (Dora C.); C.A.B. Boucher (Charles); Nikolopoulos, G. (Georgios); Vasylyeva, T. (Tetyana); Friedman, S.R. (Samuel R.); D.A.M.C. van de Vijver (David); G. Angarano (Guiseppe); M.L. Chaix (Marie Laure); A. de Luca (Andrea); K. Korn (Klaus); Loveday, C. (Clive); V. Soriano (Virtudes); S. Yerly (Sabine); M. Zazzi; A.M. Vandamme (Anne Mieke); D. Paraskevis (Dimitrios)

    2016-01-01

    textabstractHuman immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa

  9. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J.; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G.; Lepej, Snjezana J.; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C.; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R.; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti

  10. An information strategy for the epidemic control chain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, T.; Dijkman, J.J.; Grijpink, J.H.A.M.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/095130861; Plomp, M.G.A.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/313946809; Seignette, P.

    2011-01-01

    This article presents the results of the chain analysis of the epidemic control chain according to the method of chain-computerisation. The goal of the epidemic control chain is to prevent the disruption of society that is caused by disease or excess of preventive measures. The current

  11. On The Travelling Wave Solution For An SEIR Epidemic Disease ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We present the travelling wave solution for a Susceptible, Exposed, Infective and Removed (SEIR) epidemic disease model. For this SEIR model, the disease is driven by both the latent and infective class (the diffusion term is included in both classes). The population is closed. Keywords: Epidemic model, spatial spread, ...

  12. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-05-04

    May 4, 1991 ... During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987,. 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in.

  13. Resilience of epidemics for SIS model on networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Yang, Shunkun; Zhang, Jiaquan; Wang, Huijuan; Li, Daqing

    2017-08-01

    Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations and may bounce back to its original state, which is considered resilient. Here, we study the resilience of epidemics on networks, by introducing a different infection rate λ 2 during SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic propagation to model perturbations (control state), whereas the infection rate is λ 1 in the rest of time. Noticing that when λ 1 is below λ c , there is no resilience in the SIS model. Through simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that even for λ 2  < λ c , epidemics eventually could bounce back if the control duration is below a threshold. This critical control time for epidemic resilience, i.e., cd max , seems to be predicted by the diameter (d) of the underlying network, with the quantitative relation cd max ∼ d α . Our findings can help to design a better mitigation strategy for epidemics.

  14. Resilience of epidemics for SIS model on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Yang, Shunkun; Zhang, Jiaquan; Wang, Huijuan; Li, Daqing

    2017-08-01

    Epidemic propagation on complex networks has been widely investigated, mostly with invariant parameters. However, the process of epidemic propagation is not always constant. Epidemics can be affected by various perturbations and may bounce back to its original state, which is considered resilient. Here, we study the resilience of epidemics on networks, by introducing a different infection rate λ2 during SIS (susceptible-infected-susceptible) epidemic propagation to model perturbations (control state), whereas the infection rate is λ1 in the rest of time. Noticing that when λ1 is below λc, there is no resilience in the SIS model. Through simulations and theoretical analysis, we find that even for λ2 < λc, epidemics eventually could bounce back if the control duration is below a threshold. This critical control time for epidemic resilience, i.e., cdmax, seems to be predicted by the diameter (d) of the underlying network, with the quantitative relation cdmax ˜ dα. Our findings can help to design a better mitigation strategy for epidemics.

  15. The cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980 - 1987 Epidemiological ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    During the cholera epidemic in South Africa, 1980-1987, 25251 cases of cholera were bacteriologically proven. The case-fatality rate was 1,4%. Outbreaks occurred in the summer rainfall season. Age-specific aUack rates followed the pattern typically found during the 'epidemic phase' of the disease in most years. The vast ...

  16. development of an epidemic early warning system in Mpwapwa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In some cases, mean:2$D method is used to determine thresholds for malaria epidemics. This involves the calculation of the long-term mean of monthly malaria cases (derived from a minimum 5- year data set from which abnormal years have been excluded) and an epidemic threshold set at two times the standard deviation ...

  17. Control of African swine fever epidemics in industrialized swine populations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hisham Beshara Halasa, Tariq; Bøtner, Anette; Mortensen, Sten

    2016-01-01

    resulted in marginal improvements to the control of the epidemics. However, adding testing of dead animals in the protection and surveillance zones was predicted to be the optimal control scenario for an ASF epidemic in industrialized swine populations without contact to wild boar. This optimal scenario...

  18. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The article uses case studies, extracted from published epidemic stories and interprets these cases from a feminist and power analytical framework. The results suggest that while a disease or an epidemic affect a group of individuals, systemic factors regarding responsible governance and the role of national politics and ...

  19. Fractional virus epidemic model on financial networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balci Mehmet Ali

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this study, we present an epidemic model that characterizes the behavior of a financial network of globally operating stock markets. Since the long time series have a global memory effect, we represent our model by using the fractional calculus. This model operates on a network, where vertices are the stock markets and edges are constructed by the correlation distances. Thereafter, we find an analytical solution to commensurate system and use the well-known differential transform method to obtain the solution of incommensurate system of fractional differential equations. Our findings are confirmed and complemented by the data set of the relevant stock markets between 2006 and 2016. Rather than the hypothetical values, we use the Hurst Exponent of each time series to approximate the fraction size and graph theoretical concepts to obtain the variables.

  20. Open data mining for Taiwan's dengue epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, ChienHsing; Kao, Shu-Chen; Shih, Chia-Hung; Kan, Meng-Hsuan

    2018-03-13

    By using a quantitative approach, this study examines the applicability of data mining technique to discover knowledge from open data related to Taiwan's dengue epidemic. We compare results when Google trend data are included or excluded. Data sources are government open data, climate data, and Google trend data. Research findings from analysis of 70,914 cases are obtained. Location and time (month) in open data show the highest classification power followed by climate variables (temperature and humidity), whereas gender and age show the lowest values. Both prediction accuracy and simplicity decrease when Google trends are considered (respectively 0.94 and 0.37, compared to 0.96 and 0.46). The article demonstrates the value of open data mining in the context of public health care. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. A new epidemic model of computer viruses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Lu-Xing; Yang, Xiaofan

    2014-06-01

    This paper addresses the epidemiological modeling of computer viruses. By incorporating the effect of removable storage media, considering the possibility of connecting infected computers to the Internet, and removing the conservative restriction on the total number of computers connected to the Internet, a new epidemic model is proposed. Unlike most previous models, the proposed model has no virus-free equilibrium and has a unique endemic equilibrium. With the aid of the theory of asymptotically autonomous systems as well as the generalized Poincare-Bendixson theorem, the endemic equilibrium is shown to be globally asymptotically stable. By analyzing the influence of different system parameters on the steady number of infected computers, a collection of policies is recommended to prohibit the virus prevalence.

  2. Spatiotemporal epidemic models for rabies among animals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shigui Ruan

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Rabies is a serious concern to public health and wildlife management worldwide. Over the last three decades, various mathematical models have been proposed to study the transmission dynamics of rabies. In this paper we provide a mini-review on some reaction-diffusion models describing the spatial spread of rabies among animals. More specifically, we introduce the susceptible-exposed-infectious models for the spatial transmission of rabies among foxes (Murray et al., 1986, the spatiotemporal epidemic model for rabies among raccoons (Neilan and Lenhart, 2011, the diffusive rabies model for skunk and bat interactions (Bonchering et al., 2012, and the reaction-diffusion model for rabies among dogs (Zhang et al., 2012. Numerical simulations on the spatiotemporal dynamics of these models from these papers are presented.

  3. Did acetaminophen provoke the autism epidemic?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Good, Peter

    2009-12-01

    Schultz et al (2008) raised the question whether regression into autism is triggered, not by the measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccine, but by acetaminophen (Tylenol) given for its fever and pain. Considerable evidence supports this contention, most notably the exponential rise in the incidence of autism since 1980, when acetaminophen began to replace aspirin for infants and young children. The impetus for this shift - a Centers for Disease Control and Prevention warning that aspirin was associated with Reye's syndrome - has since been compellingly debunked. If aspirin is not to be feared as a cause of Reyes syndrome, and acetaminophen is to be feared as a cause of autism, can the autism epidemic be reversed by replacing acetaminophen with aspirin or other remedies?

  4. Multilingual event extraction for epidemic detection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lejeune, Gaël; Brixtel, Romain; Doucet, Antoine; Lucas, Nadine

    2015-10-01

    This paper presents a multilingual news surveillance system applied to tele-epidemiology. It has been shown that multilingual approaches improve timeliness in detection of epidemic events across the globe, eliminating the wait for local news to be translated into major languages. We present here a system to extract epidemic events in potentially any language, provided a Wikipedia seed for common disease names exists. The Daniel system presented herein relies on properties that are common to news writing (the journalistic genre), the most useful being repetition and saliency. Wikipedia is used to screen common disease names to be matched with repeated characters strings. Language variations, such as declensions, are handled by processing text at the character-level, rather than at the word level. This additionally makes it possible to handle various writing systems in a similar fashion. As no multilingual ground truth existed to evaluate the Daniel system, we built a multilingual corpus from the Web, and collected annotations from native speakers of Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian, with no connection or interest in the Daniel system. This data set is available online freely, and can be used for the evaluation of other event extraction systems. Experiments for 5 languages out of 17 tested are detailed in this paper: Chinese, English, Greek, Polish and Russian. The Daniel system achieves an average F-measure of 82% in these 5 languages. It reaches 87% on BEcorpus, the state-of-the-art corpus in English, slightly below top-performing systems, which are tailored with numerous language-specific resources. The consistent performance of Daniel on multiple languages is an important contribution to the reactivity and the coverage of epidemiological event detection systems. Most event extraction systems rely on extensive resources that are language-specific. While their sophistication induces excellent results (over 90% precision and recall), it restricts their

  5. Quasi-Neutral Theory of Epidemic Outbreaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pinto, Oscar A.; Muñoz, Miguel A.

    2011-01-01

    Some epidemics have been empirically observed to exhibit outbreaks of all possible sizes, i.e., to be scale-free or scale-invariant. Different explanations for this finding have been put forward; among them there is a model for “accidental pathogens” which leads to power-law distributed outbreaks without apparent need of parameter fine tuning. This model has been claimed to be related to self-organized criticality, and its critical properties have been conjectured to be related to directed percolation. Instead, we show that this is a (quasi) neutral model, analogous to those used in Population Genetics and Ecology, with the same critical behavior as the voter-model, i.e. the theory of accidental pathogens is a (quasi)-neutral theory. This analogy allows us to explain all the system phenomenology, including generic scale invariance and the associated scaling exponents, in a parsimonious and simple way. PMID:21760930

  6. Epidemic Dynamics in Open Quantum Spin Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Espigares, Carlos; Marcuzzi, Matteo; Gutiérrez, Ricardo; Lesanovsky, Igor

    2017-10-01

    We explore the nonequilibrium evolution and stationary states of an open many-body system that displays epidemic spreading dynamics in a classical and a quantum regime. Our study is motivated by recent experiments conducted in strongly interacting gases of highly excited Rydberg atoms where the facilitated excitation of Rydberg states competes with radiative decay. These systems approximately implement open quantum versions of models for population dynamics or disease spreading where species can be in a healthy, infected or immune state. We show that in a two-dimensional lattice, depending on the dominance of either classical or quantum effects, the system may display a different kind of nonequilibrium phase transition. We moreover discuss the observability of our findings in laser driven Rydberg gases with particular focus on the role of long-range interactions.

  7. Chernobyl: Symptom of a worrying psychological epidemic

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pretre, S.

    1991-01-01

    The Chernobyl psychological epidemic was already latent well prior to 1986 fully broke out after the accident, and continues to spread. It must be halted. But how can we counter a belief which has taken on the appearance of reality. It is the unknown, linked to alarming symbols, which sustains fear. To get beyond this state, radioactivity, ionizing radiation and nuclear energy have to become as ordinary as air travel and electronic calculators. In a climate of confidence and openness, it should be possible to successfully communicate several solid scientific reference points by first targeting teachers, doctors, and journalists. Thirty years ago, nuclear energy was presented as a universal panacea (clean, safe, and renewable). Now things have swung to the other extreme, and it is presented as diabolical. We have shifted from a symbolically white level to a symbolically black level, and both are misleading. It is high time to rejoin the world of facts, a world full of shades of gray

  8. Florida's tuberculosis epidemic. Public health response.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Witte, J J; Bigler, W J

    1994-03-01

    Florida ranked fourth in the nation with 1,707 tuberculosis cases reported in 1992 for a rate of 12.7 per 100,000 population. Thirteen percent of these patients had AIDS. Recent cases in prisons, shelters, hospitals and schools have stimulated interest and media coverage. Resurgence of strains of multiple-drug resistant tuberculosis is a serious concern. The Florida Department of Health and Rehabilitative Services, in collaboration with allied agencies, has utilized several initiatives in response. The most significant, Tuberculosis Epidemic Containment Plan, details intervention strategies needed to eliminate TB in the state by the year 2010. Successful implementation depends upon local TB prevention and control coalitions that include private and public sector providers.

  9. Determinants of STD epidemics: implications for phase appropriate intervention strategies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aral, S O

    2002-04-01

    Determinants of evolving epidemics of sexually transmitted diseases (STD) are equally influenced by the evolution of the STD epidemics themselves and by the evolution of human societies. A temporal approach to STD transmission dynamics suggests the need to monitor infectivity, rate of exposure between infected and susceptible individuals, and duration of infectiousness in societies. Different indicators may be used to monitor rate of exposure in the general population and in core groups. In addition, underlying determinants of STD epidemics such as poverty, inequality, racial/ethnic discrimination, unemployment, sex ratio, volume of migration, and health care coverage and quality are important variables to monitor through a surveillance system focused on social context. Ongoing large scale societal changes including urbanisation, globalisation, increasing inequality, and increasing volume of migrant populations may affect the evolution of STD epidemics. Globalised STD epidemics could pose a major challenge to local public health systems.

  10. Epidemic spreading between two coupled subpopulations with inner structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruan, Zhongyuan; Tang, Ming; Gu, Changgui; Xu, Jinshan

    2017-10-01

    The structure of underlying contact network and the mobility of agents are two decisive factors for epidemic spreading in reality. Here, we study a model consisting of two coupled subpopulations with intra-structures that emphasizes both the contact structure and the recurrent mobility pattern of individuals simultaneously. We show that the coupling of the two subpopulations (via interconnections between them and round trips of individuals) makes the epidemic threshold in each subnetwork to be the same. Moreover, we find that the interconnection probability between two subpopulations and the travel rate are important factors for spreading dynamics. In particular, as a function of interconnection probability, the epidemic threshold in each subpopulation decreases monotonously, which enhances the risks of an epidemic. While the epidemic threshold displays a non-monotonic variation as travel rate increases. Moreover, the asymptotic infected density as a function of travel rate in each subpopulation behaves differently depending on the interconnection probability.

  11. Extinction times in the subcritical stochastic SIS logistic epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brightwell, Graham; House, Thomas; Luczak, Malwina

    2018-01-31

    Many real epidemics of an infectious disease are not straightforwardly super- or sub-critical, and the understanding of epidemic models that exhibit such complexity has been identified as a priority for theoretical work. We provide insights into the near-critical regime by considering the stochastic SIS logistic epidemic, a well-known birth-and-death chain used to model the spread of an epidemic within a population of a given size N. We study the behaviour of the process as the population size N tends to infinity. Our results cover the entire subcritical regime, including the "barely subcritical" regime, where the recovery rate exceeds the infection rate by an amount that tends to 0 as [Formula: see text] but more slowly than [Formula: see text]. We derive precise asymptotics for the distribution of the extinction time and the total number of cases throughout the subcritical regime, give a detailed description of the course of the epidemic, and compare to numerical results for a range of parameter values. We hypothesise that features of the course of the epidemic will be seen in a wide class of other epidemic models, and we use real data to provide some tentative and preliminary support for this theory.

  12. Can influenza epidemics be prevented by voluntary vaccination?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffaele Vardavas

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available Previous modeling studies have identified the vaccination coverage level necessary for preventing influenza epidemics, but have not shown whether this critical coverage can be reached. Here we use computational modeling to determine, for the first time, whether the critical coverage for influenza can be achieved by voluntary vaccination. We construct a novel individual-level model of human cognition and behavior; individuals are characterized by two biological attributes (memory and adaptability that they use when making vaccination decisions. We couple this model with a population-level model of influenza that includes vaccination dynamics. The coupled models allow individual-level decisions to influence influenza epidemiology and, conversely, influenza epidemiology to influence individual-level decisions. By including the effects of adaptive decision-making within an epidemic model, we can reproduce two essential characteristics of influenza epidemiology: annual variation in epidemic severity and sporadic occurrence of severe epidemics. We suggest that individual-level adaptive decision-making may be an important (previously overlooked causal factor in driving influenza epidemiology. We find that severe epidemics cannot be prevented unless vaccination programs offer incentives. Frequency of severe epidemics could be reduced if programs provide, as an incentive to be vaccinated, several years of free vaccines to individuals who pay for one year of vaccination. Magnitude of epidemic amelioration will be determined by the number of years of free vaccination, an individuals' adaptability in decision-making, and their memory. This type of incentive program could control epidemics if individuals are very adaptable and have long-term memories. However, incentive-based programs that provide free vaccination for families could increase the frequency of severe epidemics. We conclude that incentive-based vaccination programs are necessary to control

  13. Epidemic Spread in Networks Induced by Deactivation Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xiao-Ling; Wu, Xiao; Zhang, Duan-Ming; Li, Zhi-Hao; Liang, Fang; Wang, Xiao-Yu

    2008-05-01

    We have studied the topology and epidemic spreading behaviors on the networks in which deactivation mechanism and long-rang connection are coexisted. By means of numerical simulation, we find that the clustering coefficient C and the Pearson correlation coefficient r decrease with increasing long-range connection μ and the topological state of the network changes into that of BA model at the end (when μ = 1). For the Susceptible Infect Susceptible model of epidemics, the epidemic threshold can reach maximum value at μ = 0.4 and presents two different variable states around μ = 0.4.

  14. Spatially explicit modelling of cholera epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finger, F.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Knox, A. C.; Gatto, M.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-12-01

    Epidemiological models can provide crucial understanding about the dynamics of infectious diseases. Possible applications range from real-time forecasting and allocation of health care resources to testing alternative intervention mechanisms such as vaccines, antibiotics or the improvement of sanitary conditions. We apply a spatially explicit model to the cholera epidemic that struck Haiti in October 2010 and is still ongoing. The dynamics of susceptibles as well as symptomatic and asymptomatic infectives are modelled at the scale of local human communities. Dissemination of Vibrio cholerae through hydrological transport and human mobility along the road network is explicitly taken into account, as well as the effect of rainfall as a driver of increasing disease incidence. The model is calibrated using a dataset of reported cholera cases. We further model the long term impact of several types of interventions on the disease dynamics by varying parameters appropriately. Key epidemiological mechanisms and parameters which affect the efficiency of treatments such as antibiotics are identified. Our results lead to conclusions about the influence of different intervention strategies on the overall epidemiological dynamics.

  15. Diabetes mellitus: The epidemic of the century

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharroubi, Akram T; Darwish, Hisham M

    2015-01-01

    The epidemic nature of diabetes mellitus in different regions is reviewed. The Middle East and North Africa region has the highest prevalence of diabetes in adults (10.9%) whereas, the Western Pacific region has the highest number of adults diagnosed with diabetes and has countries with the highest prevalence of diabetes (37.5%). Different classes of diabetes mellitus, type 1, type 2, gestational diabetes and other types of diabetes mellitus are compared in terms of diagnostic criteria, etiology and genetics. The molecular genetics of diabetes received extensive attention in recent years by many prominent investigators and research groups in the biomedical field. A large array of mutations and single nucleotide polymorphisms in genes that play a role in the various steps and pathways involved in glucose metabolism and the development, control and function of pancreatic cells at various levels are reviewed. The major advances in the molecular understanding of diabetes in relation to the different types of diabetes in comparison to the previous understanding in this field are briefly reviewed here. Despite the accumulation of extensive data at the molecular and cellular levels, the mechanism of diabetes development and complications are still not fully understood. Definitely, more extensive research is needed in this field that will eventually reflect on the ultimate objective to improve diagnoses, therapy and minimize the chance of chronic complications development. PMID:26131326

  16. Human enterovirus 71 epidemics: what's next?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Cyril C. Y.; Lau, Susanna K. P.; Woo, Patrick C. Y.; Yuen, Kwok-Yung

    2013-01-01

    Human enterovirus 71 (EV71) epidemics have affected various countries in the past 40 years. EV71 commonly causes hand, foot and mouth disease (HFMD) in children, but can result in neurological and cardiorespiratory complications in severe cases. Genotypic changes of EV71 have been observed in different places over time, with the emergence of novel genotypes or subgenotypes giving rise to serious outbreaks. Since the late 1990s, intra- and inter-typic recombination events in EV71 have been increasingly reported in the Asia-Pacific region. In particular, ‘double-recombinant’ EV71 strains belonging to a novel genotype D have been predominant in mainland China and Hong Kong over the last decade, though co-circulating with a minority of other EV71 subgenotypes and coxsackie A viruses. Continuous surveillance and genome studies are important to detect potential novel mutants or recombinants in the near future. Rapid and sensitive molecular detection of EV71 is of paramount importance in anticipating and combating EV71 outbreaks. PMID:24119538

  17. [Epidemic of infectious disease with echovirus type 16--epidemic in Tono area, Gifu Prefecture in 1984].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miwa, C; Watanabe, Y

    1990-07-01

    During the period from May to August, 1984, an epidemic of infectious disease with echovirus type 16 occurred in Tono area of southeast in Gifu prefecture. This virus caused children to have different clinical symptoms, one was a exanthem disease and another was aseptic meningitis. These cases confirmed by virological and serological methods were 48 cases, that is, patients with aseptic meningitis were 24 cases and patients with exanthem disease were 24 cases. By serological examination of antibody against echovirus type 16, it was confirmed that this virus type invaded Gifu Prefecture before 1984.

  18. Interactions among symbionts operate across scales to influence parasite epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Halliday, Fletcher W; Umbanhowar, James; Mitchell, Charles E

    2017-10-01

    Parasite epidemics may be influenced by interactions among symbionts, which can depend on past events at multiple spatial scales. Within host individuals, interactions can depend on the sequence in which symbionts infect a host, generating priority effects. Across host individuals, interactions can depend on parasite phenology. To test the roles of parasite interactions and phenology in epidemics, we embedded multiple cohorts of sentinel plants, grown from seeds with and without a vertically transmitted symbiont, into a wild host population, and tracked foliar infections caused by three common fungal parasites. Within hosts, parasite growth was influenced by coinfections, but coinfections were often prevented by priority effects among symbionts. Across hosts, parasite phenology altered host susceptibility to secondary infections, symbiont interactions and ultimately the magnitude of parasite epidemics. Together, these results indicate that parasite phenology can influence parasite epidemics by altering the sequence of infection and interactions among symbionts within host individuals. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  19. Context analysis for epidemic control in the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Huizer, Y.L.; Kraaij-Dirkzwager, M.M.; Timen, A.; Schuitmaker-Warnaar, T.J.; van Steenbergen, J.E.

    2014-01-01

    When epidemics occur, experts advise the Ministries on effective control measures. There is uncertainty in the translation of epidemiological evidence into effective outbreak management interventions, due to contradicatory problem perspectives, diverse interests and time pressure. Several models

  20. Stochastic population and epidemic models persistence and extinction

    CERN Document Server

    Allen, Linda J S

    2015-01-01

    This monograph provides a summary of the basic theory of branching processes for single-type and multi-type processes. Classic examples of population and epidemic models illustrate the probability of population or epidemic extinction obtained from the theory of branching processes. The first chapter develops the branching process theory, while in the second chapter two applications to population and epidemic processes of single-type branching process theory are explored. The last two chapters present multi-type branching process applications to epidemic models, and then continuous-time and continuous-state branching processes with applications. In addition, several MATLAB programs for simulating stochastic sample paths  are provided in an Appendix. These notes originated as part of a lecture series on Stochastics in Biological Systems at the Mathematical Biosciences Institute in Ohio, USA. Professor Linda Allen is a Paul Whitfield Horn Professor of Mathematics in the Department of Mathematics and Statistics ...

  1. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Duan, Wei; Qiu, Xiaogang; Quax, Rick; Lees, Michael; Sloot, Peter M A

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support decision-making on disease control and other diffusive processes. However, a real understanding of epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks is still lacking. Here we conduct a numerical study of the velocity of a Reed–Frost epidemic spreading process in various weighted network topologies as a function of the correlations between edge weights and node degrees. We find that a positive weight-connectivity correlation leads to a faster epidemic spreading compared to an unweighted network. In contrast, we find that both uncorrelated and negatively correlated weight distributions lead to slower spreading processes. In the case of positive weight-connectivity correlations, the acceleration of spreading velocity is weak when the heterogeneity of weight distribution increases. (paper)

  2. Modeling and Analysis of Epidemic Diffusion with Population Migration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ming Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available An improved Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS epidemic diffusion model with population migration between two cities is modeled. Global stability conditions for both the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium are analyzed and proved. The main contribution of this paper is reflected in epidemic modeling and analysis which considers unequal migration rates, and only susceptible individuals can migrate between the two cities. Numerical simulation shows when the epidemic diffusion system is stable, number of infected individuals in one city can reach zero, while the number of infected individuals in the other city is still positive. On the other hand, decreasing population migration in only one city seems not as effective as improving the recovery rate for controlling the epidemic diffusion.

  3. Spatial spread of the West Africa Ebola epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kramer, Andrew M; Pulliam, J Tomlin; Alexander, Laura W; Park, Andrew W; Rohani, Pejman; Drake, John M

    2016-08-01

    Controlling Ebola outbreaks and planning an effective response to future emerging diseases are enhanced by understanding the role of geography in transmission. Here we show how epidemic expansion may be predicted by evaluating the relative probability of alternative epidemic paths. We compared multiple candidate models to characterize the spatial network over which the 2013-2015 West Africa epidemic of Ebola virus spread and estimate the effects of geographical covariates on transmission during peak spread. The best model was a generalized gravity model where the probability of transmission between locations depended on distance, population density and international border closures between Guinea, Liberia and Sierra Leone and neighbouring countries. This model out-performed alternative models based on diffusive spread, the force of infection, mobility estimated from cell phone records and other hypothesized patterns of spread. These findings highlight the importance of integrated geography to epidemic expansion and may contribute to identifying both the most vulnerable unaffected areas and locations of maximum intervention value.

  4. Epidemic cholera in Latin America: spread and routes of transmission.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guthmann, J P

    1995-12-01

    In the most recent epidemic of cholera in Latin America, nearly a million cases were reported and almost 9000 people died between January 1991 and December 1993. The epidemic spread rapidly from country to country, affecting in three years all the countries of Latin America except Uruguay and the Caribbean. Case-control studies carried out in Peru showed a significant association between drinking water and risk of disease. Cholera was associated with the consumption of unwashed fruit and vegetables, with eating food from street vendors and with contaminated crabmeat transported in travellers' luggage. This article documents the spread of the epidemic and its routes of transmission and discusses whether the introduction of the epidemic to Peru and its subsequent spread throughout the continent could have been prevented.

  5. HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... The Basics The HIV/AIDS Epidemic in the United States: The Basics Published: Apr 11, 2018 Facebook Twitter ... become known as AIDS were reported in the United States in June of 1981. 1 Today, there are ...

  6. Epidemic spread in bipartite network by considering risk awareness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, She; Sun, Mei; Ampimah, Benjamin Chris; Han, Dun

    2018-02-01

    Human awareness plays an important role in the spread of infectious diseases and the control of propagation patterns. Exploring the interplay between human awareness and epidemic spreading is a topic that has been receiving increasing attention. Considering the fact, some well-known diseases only spread between different species we propose a theoretical analysis of the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (SIS) epidemic spread from the perspective of bipartite network and risk aversion. Using mean field theory, the epidemic threshold is calculated theoretically. Simulation results are consistent with the proposed analytic model. The results show that, the final infection density is negative linear with the value of individuals' risk awareness. Therefore, the epidemic spread could be effectively suppressed by improving individuals' risk awareness.

  7. [Hippocrates. Aphorisms and Epidemics III. Two clinical texts].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frøland, Anders

    2015-01-01

    The two Hippocratic texts, Aphorisms and Epidemics III, have not been translated into Danish previously. The Aphorisms are 412 short, pithy statements, mostly on the prognosis in relation to certain symptoms in the course of the diseases, very often febrile. The Aphorisms begin with the famous words: "Life is short, the Art long, opportunity fleeting, experiment treacherous, judgment difficult." (Transl. W H S Jones [22]). Epidemics III consists of 28 case histories, again mostly of febrile patients, but also of observations on the connection of the seasons with general morbidity and mortality. The author describes an epidemic, which in some respects resembles Thucydides' report on the plague in Athens in 430 BC. It is suggested, that observations as have been recorded in the seven Hippocratic texts on epidemic diseases are the material on which prognostic statements as those collected in the Aphorisms are founded.

  8. 2,500-year Evolution of the Term Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin-Granel, Estelle

    2006-01-01

    The term epidemic (from the Greek epi [on] plus demos [people]), first used by Homer, took its medical meaning when Hippocrates used it as the title of one of his famous treatises. At that time, epidemic was the name given to a collection of clinical syndromes, such as coughs or diarrheas, occurring and propagating in a given period at a given location. Over centuries, the form and meaning of the term have changed. Successive epidemics of plague in the Middle Ages contributed to the definition of an epidemic as the propagation of a single, well-defined disease. The meaning of the term continued to evolve in the 19th-century era of microbiology. Its most recent semantic evolution dates from the last quarter of the 20th century, and this evolution is likely to continue in the future. PMID:16707055

  9. Underrecognition of Dengue during 2013 Epidemic in Luanda, Angola.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharp, Tyler M; Moreira, Rosa; Soares, Maria José; Miguel da Costa, Lúis; Mann, Jennifer; DeLorey, Mark; Hunsperger, Elizabeth; Muñoz-Jordán, Jorge L; Colón, Candimar; Margolis, Harold S; de Caravalho, Adelaide; Tomashek, Kay M

    2015-08-01

    During the 2013 dengue epidemic in Luanda, Angola, 811 dengue rapid diagnostic test-positive cases were reported to the Ministry of Health. To better understand the magnitude of the epidemic and identify risk factors for dengue virus (DENV) infection, we conducted cluster surveys around households of case-patients and randomly selected households 6 weeks after the peak of the epidemic. Of 173 case cluster participants, 16 (9%) exhibited evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 247 random cluster participants, 25 (10%) had evidence of recent DENV infection. Of 13 recently infected participants who had a recent febrile illness, 7 (54%) had sought medical care, and 1 (14%) was hospitalized with symptoms consistent with severe dengue; however, none received a diagnosis of dengue. Behavior associated with protection from DENV infection included recent use of mosquito repellent or a bed net. These findings suggest that the 2013 dengue epidemic was larger than indicated by passive surveillance data.

  10. Type 2 diabetes: the emerging epidemic | Rheeder | South African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. This article reports on the prevalence of diabetes in South Africa and gives projections for the epidemic proportions that this disease may take by the year 2030. South African Family Practice Vol. 48 (10) 2006: pp. 20 ...

  11. The Topological Weighted Centroid (TWC): A topological approach to the time-space structure of epidemic and pseudo-epidemic processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buscema, Massimo; Massini, Giulia; Sacco, Pier Luigi

    2018-02-01

    This paper offers the first systematic presentation of the topological approach to the analysis of epidemic and pseudo-epidemic spatial processes. We introduce the basic concepts and proofs, at test the approach on a diverse collection of case studies of historically documented epidemic and pseudo-epidemic processes. The approach is found to consistently provide reliable estimates of the structural features of epidemic processes, and to provide useful analytical insights and interpretations of fragmentary pseudo-epidemic processes. Although this analysis has to be regarded as preliminary, we find that the approach's basic tenets are strongly corroborated by this first test and warrant future research in this vein.

  12. Predicting Subnational Ebola Virus Disease Epidemic Dynamics from Sociodemographic Indicators.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Linda Valeri

    Full Text Available The recent Ebola virus disease (EVD outbreak in West Africa has spread wider than any previous human EVD epidemic. While individual-level risk factors that contribute to the spread of EVD have been studied, the population-level attributes of subnational regions associated with outbreak severity have not yet been considered.To investigate the area-level predictors of EVD dynamics, we integrated time series data on cumulative reported cases of EVD from the World Health Organization and covariate data from the Demographic and Health Surveys. We first estimated the early growth rates of epidemics in each second-level administrative district (ADM2 in Guinea, Sierra Leone and Liberia using exponential, logistic and polynomial growth models. We then evaluated how these growth rates, as well as epidemic size within ADM2s, were ecologically associated with several demographic and socio-economic characteristics of the ADM2, using bivariate correlations and multivariable regression models.The polynomial growth model appeared to best fit the ADM2 epidemic curves, displaying the lowest residual standard error. Each outcome was associated with various regional characteristics in bivariate models, however in stepwise multivariable models only mean education levels were consistently associated with a worse local epidemic.By combining two common methods-estimation of epidemic parameters using mathematical models, and estimation of associations using ecological regression models-we identified some factors predicting rapid and severe EVD epidemics in West African subnational regions. While care should be taken interpreting such results as anything more than correlational, we suggest that our approach of using data sources that were publicly available in advance of the epidemic or in real-time provides an analytic framework that may assist countries in understanding the dynamics of future outbreaks as they occur.

  13. The deterministic SIS epidemic model in a Markovian random environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Economou, Antonis; Lopez-Herrero, Maria Jesus

    2016-07-01

    We consider the classical deterministic susceptible-infective-susceptible epidemic model, where the infection and recovery rates depend on a background environmental process that is modeled by a continuous time Markov chain. This framework is able to capture several important characteristics that appear in the evolution of real epidemics in large populations, such as seasonality effects and environmental influences. We propose computational approaches for the determination of various distributions that quantify the evolution of the number of infectives in the population.

  14. Effects of epidemic threshold definition on disease spread statistics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lagorio, C.; Migueles, M. V.; Braunstein, L. A.; López, E.; Macri, P. A.

    2009-03-01

    We study the statistical properties of SIR epidemics in random networks, when an epidemic is defined as only those SIR propagations that reach or exceed a minimum size sc. Using percolation theory to calculate the average fractional size of an epidemic, we find that the strength of the spanning link percolation cluster P∞ is an upper bound to . For small values of sc, P∞ is no longer a good approximation, and the average fractional size has to be computed directly. We find that the choice of sc is generally (but not always) guided by the network structure and the value of T of the disease in question. If the goal is to always obtain P∞ as the average epidemic size, one should choose sc to be the typical size of the largest percolation cluster at the critical percolation threshold for the transmissibility. We also study Q, the probability that an SIR propagation reaches the epidemic mass sc, and find that it is well characterized by percolation theory. We apply our results to real networks (DIMES and Tracerouter) to measure the consequences of the choice sc on predictions of average outcome sizes of computer failure epidemics.

  15. Predictive analysis effectiveness in determining the epidemic disease infected area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ibrahim, Najihah; Akhir, Nur Shazwani Md.; Hassan, Fadratul Hafinaz

    2017-10-01

    Epidemic disease outbreak had caused nowadays community to raise their great concern over the infectious disease controlling, preventing and handling methods to diminish the disease dissemination percentage and infected area. Backpropagation method was used for the counter measure and prediction analysis of the epidemic disease. The predictive analysis based on the backpropagation method can be determine via machine learning process that promotes the artificial intelligent in pattern recognition, statistics and features selection. This computational learning process will be integrated with data mining by measuring the score output as the classifier to the given set of input features through classification technique. The classification technique is the features selection of the disease dissemination factors that likely have strong interconnection between each other in causing infectious disease outbreaks. The predictive analysis of epidemic disease in determining the infected area was introduced in this preliminary study by using the backpropagation method in observation of other's findings. This study will classify the epidemic disease dissemination factors as the features for weight adjustment on the prediction of epidemic disease outbreaks. Through this preliminary study, the predictive analysis is proven to be effective method in determining the epidemic disease infected area by minimizing the error value through the features classification.

  16. Molecular complexity of successive bacterial epidemics deconvoluted by comparative pathogenomics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beres, Stephen B; Carroll, Ronan K; Shea, Patrick R; Sitkiewicz, Izabela; Martinez-Gutierrez, Juan Carlos; Low, Donald E; McGeer, Allison; Willey, Barbara M; Green, Karen; Tyrrell, Gregory J; Goldman, Thomas D; Feldgarden, Michael; Birren, Bruce W; Fofanov, Yuriy; Boos, John; Wheaton, William D; Honisch, Christiane; Musser, James M

    2010-03-02

    Understanding the fine-structure molecular architecture of bacterial epidemics has been a long-sought goal of infectious disease research. We used short-read-length DNA sequencing coupled with mass spectroscopy analysis of SNPs to study the molecular pathogenomics of three successive epidemics of invasive infections involving 344 serotype M3 group A Streptococcus in Ontario, Canada. Sequencing the genome of 95 strains from the three epidemics, coupled with analysis of 280 biallelic SNPs in all 344 strains, revealed an unexpectedly complex population structure composed of a dynamic mixture of distinct clonally related complexes. We discovered that each epidemic is dominated by micro- and macrobursts of multiple emergent clones, some with distinct strain genotype-patient phenotype relationships. On average, strains were differentiated from one another by only 49 SNPs and 11 insertion-deletion events (indels) in the core genome. Ten percent of SNPs are strain specific; that is, each strain has a unique genome sequence. We identified nonrandom temporal-spatial patterns of strain distribution within and between the epidemic peaks. The extensive full-genome data permitted us to identify genes with significantly increased rates of nonsynonymous (amino acid-altering) nucleotide polymorphisms, thereby providing clues about selective forces operative in the host. Comparative expression microarray analysis revealed that closely related strains differentiated by seemingly modest genetic changes can have significantly divergent transcriptomes. We conclude that enhanced understanding of bacterial epidemics requires a deep-sequencing, geographically centric, comparative pathogenomics strategy.

  17. Prediction of invasion from the early stage of an epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pérez-Reche, Francisco J; Neri, Franco M; Taraskin, Sergei N; Gilligan, Christopher A

    2012-09-07

    Predictability of undesired events is a question of great interest in many scientific disciplines including seismology, economy and epidemiology. Here, we focus on the predictability of invasion of a broad class of epidemics caused by diseases that lead to permanent immunity of infected hosts after recovery or death. We approach the problem from the perspective of the science of complexity by proposing and testing several strategies for the estimation of important characteristics of epidemics, such as the probability of invasion. Our results suggest that parsimonious approximate methodologies may lead to the most reliable and robust predictions. The proposed methodologies are first applied to analysis of experimentally observed epidemics: invasion of the fungal plant pathogen Rhizoctonia solani in replicated host microcosms. We then consider numerical experiments of the susceptible-infected-removed model to investigate the performance of the proposed methods in further detail. The suggested framework can be used as a valuable tool for quick assessment of epidemic threat at the stage when epidemics only start developing. Moreover, our work amplifies the significance of the small-scale and finite-time microcosm realizations of epidemics revealing their predictive power.

  18. A simple model for behaviour change in epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brauer Fred

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background People change their behaviour during an epidemic. Infectious members of a population may reduce the number of contacts they make with other people because of the physical effects of their illness and possibly because of public health announcements asking them to do so in order to decrease the number of new infections, while susceptible members of the population may reduce the number of contacts they make in order to try to avoid becoming infected. Methods We consider a simple epidemic model in which susceptible and infectious members respond to a disease outbreak by reducing contacts by different fractions and analyze the effect of such contact reductions on the size of the epidemic. We assume constant fractional reductions, without attempting to consider the way in which susceptible members might respond to information about the epidemic. Results We are able to derive upper and lower bounds for the final size of an epidemic, both for simple and staged progression models. Conclusions The responses of uninfected and infected individuals in a disease outbreak are different, and this difference affects estimates of epidemic size.

  19. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: Monogenean epidemics in guppies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Mirelle B.; Lafferty, Kevin D.; van Oosterhout, Cock; Cable, Joanne

    2011-01-01

    Background Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. Methodology/Principal Findings Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata). Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria), and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. Conclusions/Significance These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

  20. Parasite transmission in social interacting hosts: monogenean epidemics in guppies.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mirelle B Johnson

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Infection incidence increases with the average number of contacts between susceptible and infected individuals. Contact rates are normally assumed to increase linearly with host density. However, social species seek out each other at low density and saturate their contact rates at high densities. Although predicting epidemic behaviour requires knowing how contact rates scale with host density, few empirical studies have investigated the effect of host density. Also, most theory assumes each host has an equal probability of transmitting parasites, even though individual parasite load and infection duration can vary. To our knowledge, the relative importance of characteristics of the primary infected host vs. the susceptible population has never been tested experimentally. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Here, we examine epidemics using a common ectoparasite, Gyrodactylus turnbulli infecting its guppy host (Poecilia reticulata. Hosts were maintained at different densities (3, 6, 12 and 24 fish in 40 L aquaria, and we monitored gyrodactylids both at a population and individual host level. Although parasite population size increased with host density, the probability of an epidemic did not. Epidemics were more likely when the primary infected fish had a high mean intensity and duration of infection. Epidemics only occurred if the primary infected host experienced more than 23 worm days. Female guppies contracted infections sooner than males, probably because females have a higher propensity for shoaling. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: These findings suggest that in social hosts like guppies, the frequency of social contact largely governs disease epidemics independent of host density.

  1. The fundamental drivers of the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, W P T

    2008-03-01

    Most policy makers do not yet understand that the obesity epidemic is a normal population response to the dramatic reduction in the demand for physical activity and the major changes in the food supply of countries over the last 40 years. A national focus on individual behaviour reflects a failure to confront the facts. Thus, the changes in food supply and physical environment are socioeconomically driven, and the health sector simply picks up the consequences. Urbanization alone in China has reduced daily energy expenditure by about 300-400 kcal d(-1) and cycling/bussing or going to work by car determines another variation of 200 kcal d(-1). Thus, energy demands may have dropped with additional TV/media, mechanization and computerized changes by 400-800 kcal d(-1), so weight gain and obesity are inevitable for most or all the population. Food intake should have fallen substantially despite the community's focus on the value of food after all the food crises of the past. Yet, Chinese fat and sugar intakes are escalating, and these policy-mediated features are amplified by the primeval biological drive for those commodities with specialized taste buds for fatty acids, meat, sugar and salt. Yet, traditionally, Chinese diets had negligible sugar, and 25-year-old data show that the optimum diet for Chinese contains 15% fat. Policies relating to food imports, agriculture, food quality standards, appropriate food traffic light labelling, price adjustments and controlled access to unhealthy foods are all within the grasp of the Chinese government. China has traditionally been far more responsive to the value of policies which limit inequalities and establish standards of care than many western governments, who have yet to recognize that the individualistic free-market approach to obesity prevention is guaranteed to fail. China could therefore lead the way: if it follows western approaches, the health and economic burden will become unsustainable.

  2. The global epidemic of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yusuf, Salim; Ounpuu, Stephanie; Anand, Sonia

    2002-01-01

    Of the 50 million deaths that occur in the world, 40 million occur in developing countries. Already a substantial proportion of these deaths are due to cardiovascular diseases. It is projected that by the year 2025 well over 80-90% of all the cardiovascular diseases in the world will be occurring in low income and middle income countries. This increase in cardiovascular disease is due to a number of causes which include the following: (1) conquest of deaths in childhood and infancy from nutritional deficiencies and infection; (2) urbanization with increasing levels of obesity; (3) increasing longevity of the population so that a higher proportion of individuals reach the age when they are subject to chronic diseases, and (4) increasing use of tobacco worldwide. In most countries in the world other than those in the West, the burden of disease is still due to a combination of infections and nutritional disorders as well as those due to chronic diseases. This double burden of disease poses a challenge that is not only medical and epidemiological, but also social and political. Tackling this projected global epidemic of cardiovascular disease therefore needs policies that combine sound knowledge of prevention, good clinical care, but also deals with the allocation of resources for both individual level and community level preventive strategies. The former involves dealing with high-risk individuals through appropriate medical and therapeutic interventions. The latter involves societal level changes including laws that curb the use of tobacco, and strategies that promote physical activities, and appropriate nutrition. Copyright 2002 S. Karger AG, Basel

  3. Ongoing dengue epidemic - Angola, June 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-21

    On April 1, 2013, the Public Health Directorate of Angola announced that six cases of dengue had been reported to the Ministry of Health of Angola (MHA). As of May 31, a total of 517 suspected dengue cases had been reported and tested for dengue with a rapid diagnostic test (RDT). A total of 313 (60.5%) specimens tested positive for dengue, including one from a patient who died. All suspected cases were reported from Luanda Province, except for two from Malanje Province. Confirmatory diagnostic testing of 49 specimens (43 RDT-positive and six RDT-negative) at the CDC Dengue Branch confirmed dengue virus (DENV) infection in 100% of the RDT-positive specimens and 50% of the RDT-negative specimens. Only DENV-1 was detected by molecular diagnostic testing. Phylogenetic analysis indicated this virus has been circulating in the region since at least 1968, strongly suggesting that dengue is endemic in Angola. Health-care professionals throughout Angola should be aware of the ongoing epidemic, the recommended practices for clinical management of dengue patients, and the need to report cases to MHA. Persons in Angola should seek medical care for acute febrile illness to reduce the risk for developing complications. Laboratory-confirmed dengue also has been reported from seven countries on four continents among persons who had recently traveled to Luanda, including 79 persons from Portugal. Angola is the third of four African countries to report a dengue outbreak in 2013. Persons returning from Africa with acute febrile illness should seek medical care, including testing for DENV infection, and suspected cases should be reported to public health authorities.

  4. Is the New Heroin Epidemic Really New? Racializing Heroin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bowser, Benjamin; Fullilove, Robert; Word, Carl

    2017-01-01

    Heroin abuse as an outcome of the prior use of painkillers increased rapidly over the past decade. This "new epidemic" is unique because the new heroin users are primarily young White Americans in rural areas of virtually every state. This commentary argues that the painkiller-to-heroin transition could not be the only cause of heroin use on such a scale and that the new and old heroin epidemics are linked. The social marketing that so successfully drove the old heroin epidemic has innovated and expanded due to the use of cell-phones, text messaging and the "dark web" which requires a Tor browser, and software that allows one to communicate with encrypted sites without detection. Central city gentrification has forced traffickers to take advantage of larger and more lucrative markets. A second outcome is that urban black and Latino communities are no longer needed as heroin stages areas for suburban and exurban illicit drug distribution. Drug dealing can be done directly in predominantly white suburbs and rural areas without the accompanying violence associated with the old epidemic. Denial of the link between the new and old heroin epidemics racially segregates heroin users and more proactive prevention and treatment in the new epidemic than in the old. It also cuts off a half-century of knowledge about the supply-side of heroin drug dealing and the inevitable public policy measures that will have to be implemented to effectively slow and stop both the old and new epidemic. Copyright © 2016 National Medical Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vecchi, G. A.; Munoz, A. G.; Thomson, M. C.; Stewart-Ibarra, A. M.; Chourio, X.; Nájera, P.; Moran, Z.; Yang, X.

    2017-12-01

    Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015-2016 zika virus (ZIKV) epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME), finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  6. Could the Recent Zika Epidemic Have Been Predicted?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ángel G. Muñoz

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Given knowledge at the time, the recent 2015–2016 zika virus (ZIKV epidemic probably could not have been predicted. Without the prior knowledge of ZIKV being already present in South America, and given the lack of understanding of key epidemiologic processes and long-term records of ZIKV cases in the continent, the best related prediction could be carried out for the potential risk of a generic Aedes-borne disease epidemic. Here we use a recently published two-vector basic reproduction number model to assess the predictability of the conditions conducive to epidemics of diseases like zika, chikungunya, or dengue, transmitted by the independent or concurrent presence of Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus. We compare the potential risk of transmission forcing the model with the observed climate and with state-of-the-art operational forecasts from the North American Multi Model Ensemble (NMME, finding that the predictive skill of this new seasonal forecast system is highest for multiple countries in Latin America and the Caribbean during the December-February and March-May seasons, and slightly lower—but still of potential use to decision-makers—for the rest of the year. In particular, we find that above-normal suitable conditions for the occurrence of the zika epidemic at the beginning of 2015 could have been successfully predicted at least 1 month in advance for several zika hotspots, and in particular for Northeast Brazil: the heart of the epidemic. Nonetheless, the initiation and spread of an epidemic depends on the effect of multiple factors beyond climate conditions, and thus this type of approach must be considered as a guide and not as a formal predictive tool of vector-borne epidemics.

  7. On the Use of Human Mobility Proxies for Modeling Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tizzoni, Michele; Bajardi, Paolo; Decuyper, Adeline; Kon Kam King, Guillaume; Schneider, Christian M.; Blondel, Vincent; Smoreda, Zbigniew; González, Marta C.; Colizza, Vittoria

    2014-01-01

    Human mobility is a key component of large-scale spatial-transmission models of infectious diseases. Correctly modeling and quantifying human mobility is critical for improving epidemic control, but may be hindered by data incompleteness or unavailability. Here we explore the opportunity of using proxies for individual mobility to describe commuting flows and predict the diffusion of an influenza-like-illness epidemic. We consider three European countries and the corresponding commuting networks at different resolution scales, obtained from (i) official census surveys, (ii) proxy mobility data extracted from mobile phone call records, and (iii) the radiation model calibrated with census data. Metapopulation models defined on these countries and integrating the different mobility layers are compared in terms of epidemic observables. We show that commuting networks from mobile phone data capture the empirical commuting patterns well, accounting for more than 87% of the total fluxes. The distributions of commuting fluxes per link from mobile phones and census sources are similar and highly correlated, however a systematic overestimation of commuting traffic in the mobile phone data is observed. This leads to epidemics that spread faster than on census commuting networks, once the mobile phone commuting network is considered in the epidemic model, however preserving to a high degree the order of infection of newly affected locations. Proxies' calibration affects the arrival times' agreement across different models, and the observed topological and traffic discrepancies among mobility sources alter the resulting epidemic invasion patterns. Results also suggest that proxies perform differently in approximating commuting patterns for disease spread at different resolution scales, with the radiation model showing higher accuracy than mobile phone data when the seed is central in the network, the opposite being observed for peripheral locations. Proxies should therefore be

  8. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana A. Hacker

    2006-04-01

    Full Text Available The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000 were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates. In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  9. Reconstructing the AIDS epidemic among injection drug users in Brazil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacker, Mariana A; Leite, Iuri C; Renton, Adrian; Torres, Tania Guillén de; Gracie, Renata; Bastos, Francisco I

    2006-04-01

    The HIV/AIDS epidemic among injection drug users (IDUs) in Brazil has been unique in terms of temporal and geographical contrasts. This analysis explores these contrasts through the use of multilevel modeling. Standardized AIDS incidence rates among IDUs for Brazilian municipalities (1986-2000) were used as the dependent variable, with a set of social indicators as independent variables (covariates). In some States of the North/Northeast, the epidemic among IDUs has been incipient. The São Paulo epidemic extended to reach a network of municipalities, most of which located far from the capital. More recently, on a smaller scale, a similar extension has been observed in the southernmost States of the country. Both "number of physicians per inhabitant" and "standard distance to the State capital" were found to be associated with AIDS incidence. AIDS cases among IDUs appeared to cluster in wealthier, more developed municipalities. The relative weight of such extensive dissemination in key, heavily populated States prevails in the Brazilian IDU epidemic, defining a central-western-southeastern strip of wealthier middle-sized municipalities and more recently a southern strip of municipalities deeply affected by the epidemic in this population.

  10. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part of what he called “epidemic intelligence.” Langmuir developed the practice of disease surveillance during an unprecedented moment in which the threat of biological warfare brought civil defense experts and epidemiologists together around a common problem. In this paper, I describe how Langmuir navigated this world, experimenting with new techniques and rationales of epidemic control. Ultimately, I argue, Langmuir′s experiments resulted in a set of techniques and infrastructures – a system of epidemic intelligence – that transformed the epidemic as an object of human art.

  11. Game theory of social distancing in response to an epidemic.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Timothy C Reluga

    2010-05-01

    Full Text Available Social distancing practices are changes in behavior that prevent disease transmission by reducing contact rates between susceptible individuals and infected individuals who may transmit the disease. Social distancing practices can reduce the severity of an epidemic, but the benefits of social distancing depend on the extent to which it is used by individuals. Individuals are sometimes reluctant to pay the costs inherent in social distancing, and this can limit its effectiveness as a control measure. This paper formulates a differential-game to identify how individuals would best use social distancing and related self-protective behaviors during an epidemic. The epidemic is described by a simple, well-mixed ordinary differential equation model. We use the differential game to study potential value of social distancing as a mitigation measure by calculating the equilibrium behaviors under a variety of cost-functions. Numerical methods are used to calculate the total costs of an epidemic under equilibrium behaviors as a function of the time to mass vaccination, following epidemic identification. The key parameters in the analysis are the basic reproduction number and the baseline efficiency of social distancing. The results show that social distancing is most beneficial to individuals for basic reproduction numbers around 2. In the absence of vaccination or other intervention measures, optimal social distancing never recovers more than 30% of the cost of infection. We also show how the window of opportunity for vaccine development lengthens as the efficiency of social distancing and detection improve.

  12. Epidemic spread over networks with agent awareness and social distancing

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2016-04-20

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary connected network topology when the agents receive personalized information about the current epidemic state. The agents utilize their available information to either reduce interactions with their neighbors (social distancing) when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent or resume normal interactions when they believe there is low risk of becoming infected. The information is a weighted combination of three sources: 1) the average states of nodes in contact neighborhoods 2) the average states of nodes in an information network 3) a global broadcast of the average epidemic state of the network. A 2n-state Markov Chain is first considered to model the disease dynamics with awareness, from which a mean-field discrete-time n-state dynamical system is derived, where each state corresponds to an agent\\'s probability of being infected. The nonlinear model is a lower bound of its linearized version about the origin. Hence, global stability of the origin (the diseasefree equilibrium) in the linear model implies global stability in the nonlinear model. When the origin is not stable, we show the existence of a nontrivial fixed point in the awareness model, which obeys a strict partial order in relation to the nontrivial fixed point of the dynamics without distancing. In simulations, we define two performance metrics to understand the effectiveness agent awareness has in reducing the spread of an epidemic. © 2015 IEEE.

  13. Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zobel, Emilie H; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter; von Scholten, Bernt Johan

    2016-12-01

    We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity epidemic and the increasing prevalence of accompanying complications, such as type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer. However, the global shift might also have direct effects on the increase in type 2 diabetes, cardiovascular disease and cancer, independently of overweight and obesity. The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic.

  14. Acanthamoeba keratitis in South India: a longitudinal analysis of epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lalitha, Prajna; Lin, Charles C; Srinivasan, Muthiah; Mascarenhas, Jeena; Prajna, N Venkatesh; Keenan, Jeremy D; McLeod, Stephen D; Acharya, Nisha R; Lietman, Thomas M; Porco, Travis C

    2012-04-01

    In light of the increased incidence of contact lens associated Acanthamoeba keratitis in recent years, this study analyzed longitudinal trends of its incidence among predominantly non-contact lens wearers in a high-volume referral center in South India. A retrospective analysis of microbiology laboratory records at the Aravind Eye Hospital from 1988-2009 was performed. The Maximum Excess Events Test (MEET) was used to identify epidemics of Acanthamoeba keratitis. There were a total of 38,529 unique cases of infectious keratitis evaluated over this time period, of which 372 were culture-positive for Acanthamoeba. Only three cases (0.9%) of Acanthamoeba keratitis occurred among contact lens wearers. MEET identified unique Acanthamoeba keratitis epidemics in 1993 and 2002. Discrete epidemics of Acanthamoeba keratitis occurred among a rural, non-contact lens wearing, population in South India in 1993 and 2002.

  15. The 1974 epidemic of Chikungunya fever in children in Ibadan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomori, O; Fagbami, A; Fabiyi, A

    1975-12-01

    During an epidemic of Chikunguya fever in Ibadan 16 strains of Chikungunya virus were recovered from children reporting sick with fever at the University College Hospital and Oluyoro Catholic Hospital Outpatient Clinic. Twelve strains were obtained from children within the 1-4 year age group, two from 5-10 year group and one each from less than one-year age group, and 10-15 year age group. A retrospective survey for neutralising antibodies to Chikungunya shows a significantly higher proportion of children were positive for Chikungunya N antibodies just after the 1969 epidemic than in 1974 just before the epidemic, with resultant pooling of Chikungunya seronegative children who are susceptible to infection.

  16. Epidemic meningococcal disease: synthesis of a hypothetical immunoepidemiologic model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiss, J M

    1982-01-01

    A hypothetical model of the epidermic behavior of Neisseria meningitidis, based upon the induction of susceptibility to disseminated disease by circulating IgA, is presented. The model is based on the assumption that epidemic susceptibility is acquired as a result of induction of serum IgA by cross-reacting enteric bacteria, the priming organism. Co-colonization with the appropriate strain of N. meningitidis then may result in disseminated disease. Colonization by either bacterium in the absence of the other results in reinforcement of the commensal relationship. Slow, silent, fecal-oral transmission of the priming organism determines the time/space characteristics of an epidemic; interruption of fecal-oral transmission aborts it. Aerosol transmission of the meningococcus determines the magnitude of an epidemic. Independent, age-related acquisition of both capsular polysaccharide and lipopolysaccharide antibodies provides immunity in the absence of aberrantly high levels of co-specific serum IgA.

  17. The paralytic poliomyelitis epidemic of 1978 in Jordan: epidemiological implications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khuri-Bulos, Najwa; Melnick, Joseph L.; Hatch, Milford H.; Dawod, Saleh T.

    1984-01-01

    Poliomyelitis is endemic in Jordan, but until 1978 there were no epidemics. In that year, 66 children were admitted to the Jordan University Hospital with a paralytic illness, compared with 13 in 1979 and 11 in 1980. The epidemic reached a peak in the summer and fall of 1978. While 54% of the patients had not received any vaccine, 19% had received 3 doses of oral poliovaccine; 82% of the cases were in children less than 2 years of age, and all belonged to the lower socioeconomic group. There were 28 deaths with complications of the disease. Poliovirus was isolated from 10 out of 14 rectal swab samples examined (9 with poliovirus 1, 1 with poliovirus 2), and from 4 out of 13 throat specimens from the same patients. It is concluded that as a result of improving living standards in Jordan and neighbouring countries, more epidemics may occur unless immunization efforts against poliomyelitis are intensified. PMID:6609022

  18. Mortality Rates during Cholera Epidemic, Haiti, 2010-2011.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luquero, Francisco J; Rondy, Marc; Boncy, Jacques; Munger, André; Mekaoui, Helmi; Rymshaw, Ellen; Page, Anne-Laure; Toure, Brahima; Degail, Marie Amelie; Nicolas, Sarala; Grandesso, Francesco; Ginsbourger, Maud; Polonsky, Jonathan; Alberti, Kathryn P; Terzian, Mego; Olson, David; Porten, Klaudia; Ciglenecki, Iza

    2016-03-01

    The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was one of the largest cholera epidemics ever recorded. To estimate the magnitude of the death toll during the first wave of the epidemic, we retrospectively conducted surveys at 4 sites in the northern part of Haiti. Overall, 70,903 participants were included; at all sites, the crude mortality rates (19.1-35.4 deaths/1,000 person-years) were higher than the expected baseline mortality rate for Haiti (9 deaths/1,000 person-years). This finding represents an excess of 3,406 deaths (2.9-fold increase) for the 4.4% of the Haiti population covered by these surveys, suggesting a substantially higher cholera mortality rate than previously reported.

  19. Mortality Rates during Cholera Epidemic, Haiti, 2010–2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rondy, Marc; Boncy, Jacques; Munger, André; Mekaoui, Helmi; Rymshaw, Ellen; Page, Anne-Laure; Toure, Brahima; Degail, Marie Amelie; Nicolas, Sarala; Grandesso, Francesco; Ginsbourger, Maud; Polonsky, Jonathan; Alberti, Kathryn P.; Terzian, Mego; Olson, David; Porten, Klaudia; Ciglenecki, Iza

    2016-01-01

    The 2010 cholera epidemic in Haiti was one of the largest cholera epidemics ever recorded. To estimate the magnitude of the death toll during the first wave of the epidemic, we retrospectively conducted surveys at 4 sites in the northern part of Haiti. Overall, 70,903 participants were included; at all sites, the crude mortality rates (19.1–35.4 deaths/1,000 person-years) were higher than the expected baseline mortality rate for Haiti (9 deaths/1,000 person-years). This finding represents an excess of 3,406 deaths (2.9-fold increase) for the 4.4% of the Haiti population covered by these surveys, suggesting a substantially higher cholera mortality rate than previously reported. PMID:26886511

  20. Epidemic Forecasting is Messier Than Weather Forecasting: The Role of Human Behavior and Internet Data Streams in Epidemic Forecast.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moran, Kelly R; Fairchild, Geoffrey; Generous, Nicholas; Hickmann, Kyle; Osthus, Dave; Priedhorsky, Reid; Hyman, James; Del Valle, Sara Y

    2016-12-01

    Mathematical models, such as those that forecast the spread of epidemics or predict the weather, must overcome the challenges of integrating incomplete and inaccurate data in computer simulations, estimating the probability of multiple possible scenarios, incorporating changes in human behavior and/or the pathogen, and environmental factors. In the past 3 decades, the weather forecasting community has made significant advances in data collection, assimilating heterogeneous data steams into models and communicating the uncertainty of their predictions to the general public. Epidemic modelers are struggling with these same issues in forecasting the spread of emerging diseases, such as Zika virus infection and Ebola virus disease. While weather models rely on physical systems, data from satellites, and weather stations, epidemic models rely on human interactions, multiple data sources such as clinical surveillance and Internet data, and environmental or biological factors that can change the pathogen dynamics. We describe some of similarities and differences between these 2 fields and how the epidemic modeling community is rising to the challenges posed by forecasting to help anticipate and guide the mitigation of epidemics. We conclude that some of the fundamental differences between these 2 fields, such as human behavior, make disease forecasting more challenging than weather forecasting. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America 2016. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.

  1. Reemergence of enterovirus 71 epidemic in northern Taiwan, 2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Shu-Ting; Chiang, Pai-Shan; Chung, Wan-Yu; Chia, Min-Yuan; Tsao, Kuo-Chien; Wang, Ying-Hsiang; Lin, Tzou-Yien; Lee, Min-Shi

    2015-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) belongs to picornavirus family and could be classified phylogenetically into three major genogroups (A, B and C) including 11 genotypes (A, B1-B5 and C1-C5). Since 1997, EV71 has caused large-scale of epidemics with neurological complications in Asian children. In Taiwan, nationwide EV71 epidemics with different predominant genotypes have occurred cyclically since 1998. A nationwide EV71 epidemic occurred again in 2012. We conducted genetic and antigenic characterizations of the 2012 epidemic. Chang Gung Memorial Hospital (CGMH) is a medical center in northern Taiwan. In CGMH, specimens were collected from pediatric inpatients with suspected enterovirus infections for virus isolation. Enterovirus isolates were serotyped and genotyped and sera from EV71 inpatients were collected for measuring neutralizing antibody titers. There were 10, 16 and 99 EV71 inpatients identified in 2010, 2011 and 2012, respectively. There were 82 EV71 isolates genotyped, which identified 17 genotype C4a viruses and 65 genotype B5 viruses. The genotype B5 viruses were not detected until November 2011 and caused epidemics in 2012. Interestingly, the B5-2011 viruses were genetically distinguishable from the B5 viruses causing the 2008 epidemic and are likely introduced from China or Southeastern Asia. Based on antigenic analysis, minor antigenic variations were detected among the B5-2008, B5-2011, C4a-2008 and C4a-2012 viruses but these viruses antigenically differed from genotype A. Genotype B5 and C4a viruses antigenically differ from genotype A viruses which have disappeared globally for 30 years but have been detected in China since 2008. Enterovirus surveillance should monitor genetic and antigenic variations of EV71.

  2. Network Performance Improvement under Epidemic Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we investigate epidemic failure spreading in large- scale GMPLS-controlled transport networks. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network, we design several strategies for cost-effective network performance improvement via differentiated repair times....... First we identify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive simulations we show that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly assigning lower repair times among the network nodes. Our OPNET simulation...... model can be used during the network planning process for facilitating cost- effective network survivability design....

  3. Epidemic spreading on networks based on stress response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nian, Fuzhong; Yao, Shuanglong

    2017-06-01

    Based on the stress responses of individuals, the susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model was improved on the small-world networks and BA scale-free networks and the simulations were implemented and analyzed. Results indicate that the behaviors of individual’s stress responses could induce the epidemic spreading resistance and adaptation at the network level. This phenomenon showed that networks were learning how to adapt to the disease and the evolution process could improve their immunization to future infectious diseases and would effectively prevent the spreading of infectious diseases.

  4. Network Performance Improvement under Epidemic Failures in Optical Transport Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée

    2013-01-01

    In this paper we investigate epidemic failure spreading in large- scale GMPLS-controlled transport networks. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network, we design several strategies for cost-effective network performance improvement via differentiated repair times....... First we identify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive simulations we show that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly assigning lower repair times among the network nodes. Our OPNET simulation...

  5. Resolving epidemic network failures through differentiated repair times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Manzano, Marc

    2015-01-01

    In this study, the authors investigate epidemic failure spreading in large-scale transport networks under generalisedmulti-protocol label switching control plane. By evaluating the effect of the epidemic failure spreading on the network,they design several strategies for cost-effective network...... performance improvement via differentiated repair times. First, theyidentify the most vulnerable and the most strategic nodes in the network. Then, via extensive event-driven simulations theyshow that strategic placement of resources for improved failure recovery has better performance than randomly...

  6. Reiter′s Disease - Clinical Profile of Epidemic Form

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H S Girgia

    1980-01-01

    Full Text Available Absence of urethritis need not exclude the possiblity of Reiter′s disease in young males where conjunctivitis and polyarthritis are cardinal features. Appearance of cutaneous lesion early in the course of the disease heralds a poor prognosis specially in the rare epidemic form of the disease. Two cases of Reiter′s disease are reported. Both belonged to the dysentric type of the disease; sometimes ref to as the epidemic form. Relatively high dose of steroids necessary to control symptoms.

  7. Random migration processes between two stochastic epidemic centers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sazonov, Igor; Kelbert, Mark; Gravenor, Michael B

    2016-04-01

    We consider the epidemic dynamics in stochastic interacting population centers coupled by random migration. Both the epidemic and the migration processes are modeled by Markov chains. We derive explicit formulae for the probability distribution of the migration process, and explore the dependence of outbreak patterns on initial parameters, population sizes and coupling parameters, using analytical and numerical methods. We show the importance of considering the movement of resident and visitor individuals separately. The mean field approximation for a general migration process is derived and an approximate method that allows the computation of statistical moments for networks with highly populated centers is proposed and tested numerically. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Ebola Virus Epidemic in West Africa and Beyond

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oscar G Gómez-Duarte

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available Is there a reason to fear that an Ebola outbreak may strike Latin America? The fear may not be unreasonable taking into account the history of epidemics that have affected the American continent since colonization times in 1492. Old World small pox epidemics spread and killed millions of Native Americans north and south from the equator. Imported West Nile virus infections reported in New York in 1999 dramatically spread East to West of the United States. Most recently, Chikungunya virus arrived to Central America in 2013 and has already infected close to 1 million people in Mexico, Central American countries, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, Guyanas, Paraguay, and Venezuela.

  9. A sociocultural study of koro epidemics in Guangdong, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, W S; Mo, K M; Hsu, J; Li, L S; Ou, L W; Chen, G Q; Jiang, D W

    1988-12-01

    Koro, a culture-related psychiatric disorder characterized by panic due to fear of genital retraction, occurred as the rare phenomenon of koro epidemics in a remote region of Guangdong, China, in 1984-1985 and 1987. The sociocultural and historical backgrounds of the area are described. The life pattern and attitudes toward supernatural beings and the commonly shared folk belief of evil-induced genital retraction were considered grounds for the panic, while the community's anxious reaction and hysterical atmosphere facilitated the intensification and recurrence of the episodes. Geographic seclusion associated with localism in folk beliefs and practices may have kept the epidemics confined to the region.

  10. [The Prevalence and prevention of Cattle Epidemics in Song dynasty].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Yi

    2011-07-01

    Cattle epidemics broke out many times in Song Dynasty due to pasture transferring to south, abnormal climate, poor stabling hygiene and climatic sickness caused by migration. Mass Mortality and reduction of animal agriculture productivity threatened the stable production of grain, which influenced society and attracted attention from all social classes. Based on the principle of 'prevention before sicken' and 'contagion protection after sicken', the government took a series of medical and economical actions for prevention, such as veterinarians dispatching, drugs providing, pasturage rule regulating, law modifying (cattle trade permitted) and new farm implements popularization (to prevent missing the opportunity of cultivation), which was effective for Cattle Epidemics prevention at that time.

  11. Epidemic Increase in Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westh, Henrik; Boye, Kit; Bartels, Mette Damkjær

    2006-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We have found an epidemic increase in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Copenhagen. The increase has a complex background and involves hospitals, nursing homes and persons nursed in their own home. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We found 33 MRSA patients in 2003 and 121...... in 2004. All isolates have been spa-typed and epidemiologic information collected. RESULTS: The number of MRSA cases has a doubling time of about six months. The epidemic has been caused by many different MRSA types and 31 staphylococcus protein A genotypes (spa types). MRSA has caused several hospital...

  12. Suppressing traffic-driven epidemic spreading by use of the efficient routing protocol

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Han-Xin; Wu, Zhi-Xi

    2014-01-01

    Despite extensive work on the interplay between traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the control of epidemic spreading by routing strategies has not received adequate attention. In this paper, we study the impact of an efficient routing protocol on epidemic spreading. In the case of infinite node-delivery capacity, where the traffic is free of congestion, we find that that there exist optimal values of routing parameter, leading to the maximal epidemic threshold. This means that epidemic spreading can be effectively controlled by fine tuning the routing scheme. Moreover, we find that an increase in the average network connectivity and the emergence of traffic congestion can suppress the epidemic outbreak. (paper)

  13. Complex networks and agent-based models of HIV epidemic

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zarrabi, N.

    2013-01-01

    In this thesis, we explore the limits of multi-scale models by looking into the HIV data present at different scales (from molecular and cellular to epidemiological scales). We build data-driven models and perform network analysis in order to understand the dynamics of HIV epidemic at different

  14. Perspectives of Spatial Scale in a Wildland Forest Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.W. Dillon; S.E. Haas; D.M. Rizzo; R.K. Meentemeyer

    2014-01-01

    The challenge of observing interactions between plant pathogens, their hosts, and environmental heterogeneity across multiple spatial scales commonly limits our ability to understand and manage wildland forest epidemics. Using the forest pathogen Phytophthora ramorum as a case study, we established 20 multiscale field sites to analyze how host-...

  15. EDITORIAL Plagiarism - time to strike at the epidemic

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    admin

    Plagiarism - time to strike at the epidemic. Lukman Yusuf1, Abraham Aseffa2. We live in a globalized world where information is instantly shared across continents. The number of biomedical journals available for reference is quite enormous and there is a sudden huge surge of free open access journals in the last few years ...

  16. Obesity and kidney disease: hidden consequences of the epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Obesity has become a worldwide epidemic, and its prevalence has been projected to grow by 40% in the next decade. This increasing prevalence has implications for the risk of diabetes, cardiovascular disease and also for Chronic Kidney Disease. A high body mass index is one of the strongest risk factors for new-onset ...

  17. Epidemic Processes on Complex Networks : Modelling, Simulation and Algorithms

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van de Bovenkamp, R.

    2015-01-01

    Local interactions on a graph will lead to global dynamic behaviour. In this thesis we focus on two types of dynamic processes on graphs: the Susceptible-Infected-Susceptilbe (SIS) virus spreading model, and gossip style epidemic algorithms. The largest part of this thesis is devoted to the SIS

  18. The global spread of HIV-1 subtype B epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Magiorkinis, Gkikas; Angelis, Konstantinos; Mamais, Ioannis; Katzourakis, Aris; Hatzakis, Angelos; Albert, Jan; Lawyer, Glenn; Hamouda, Osamah; Struck, Daniel; Vercauteren, Jurgen; Wensing, Annemarie; Alexiev, Ivailo; Åsjö, Birgitta; Balotta, Claudia; Gomes, Perpétua; Camacho, Ricardo J; Coughlan, Suzie; Griskevicius, Algirdas; Grossman, Zehava; Horban, Anders; Kostrikis, Leondios G; Lepej, Snjezana J; Liitsola, Kirsi; Linka, Marek; Nielsen, Claus; Otelea, Dan; Paredes, Roger; Poljak, Mario; Puchhammer-Stöckl, Elizabeth; Schmit, Jean Claude; Sönnerborg, Anders; Staneková, Danica; Stanojevic, Maja; Stylianou, Dora C; Boucher, Charles A B; Nikolopoulos, Georgios; Vasylyeva, Tetyana; Friedman, Samuel R; van de Vijver, David; Angarano, Gioacchino; Chaix, Marie-Laure; de Luca, Andrea; Korn, Klaus; Loveday, Clive; Soriano, Vincent; Yerly, Sabine; Zazzi, Mauricio; Vandamme, Anne-Mieke; Paraskevis, Dimitrios

    2016-12-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) was discovered in the early 1980s when the virus had already established a pandemic. For at least three decades the epidemic in the Western World has been dominated by subtype B infections, as part of a sub-epidemic that traveled from Africa through Haiti to United States. However, the pattern of the subsequent spread still remains poorly understood. Here we analyze a large dataset of globally representative HIV-1 subtype B strains to map their spread around the world over the last 50years and describe significant spread patterns. We show that subtype B travelled from North America to Western Europe in different occasions, while Central/Eastern Europe remained isolated for the most part of the early epidemic. Looking with more detail in European countries we see that the United Kingdom, France and Switzerland exchanged viral isolates with non-European countries than with European ones. The observed pattern is likely to mirror geopolitical landmarks in the post-World War II era, namely the rise and the fall of the Iron Curtain and the European colonialism. In conclusion, HIV-1 spread through specific migration routes which are consistent with geopolitical factors that affected human activities during the last 50years, such as migration, tourism and trade. Our findings support the argument that epidemic control policies should be global and incorporate political and socioeconomic factors. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. One Hundred Years in the Making: The Global Tobacco Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wipfli, Heather; Samet, Jonathan M

    2016-01-01

    Today's global tobacco epidemic may represent one of the first instances of the globalization of a noninfectious cause of disease. This article focuses on the first century of the global tobacco epidemic and its current status, reviewing the current and projected future of the global tobacco epidemic and the steps that are in progress to end it. In the United States and many countries of Western Europe, tobacco consumption peaked during the 1960s and 1970s and declined as tobacco control programs were initiated, motivated by the evidence indicting smoking as a leading cause of disease. Despite this policy advancement and the subsequent reductions in tobacco consumption, the global tobacco epidemic continued to grow exponentially in the later years of the twentieth century, as the multinational companies sought new markets to replace those shrinking in high-income countries. In response, between 2000 and 2004, the World Health Organization developed its first public health treaty, the Framework Convention on Tobacco Control, which entered into force in 2005. An accompanying package of interventions has been implemented. New approaches to tobacco control, including plain packaging and single representation of brands, have been implemented by Australia and Uruguay, respectively, but have been challenged by the tobacco industry.

  20. Examination of the Obesity Epidemic from a Behavioral Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shields, A. Tamlyn

    2009-01-01

    Obesity prevalence has doubled among adults and overweight has tripled among children since 1980. This article discusses behavioral approaches to the obesity epidemic, focusing on recent environmental changes, the resulting behaviors, and possible solutions. Over the last 4 decades, time spent in sedentary activities, the consumption of fast food,…

  1. The looming epidemic of diabetes-associated tuberculosis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harries, A D; Lin, Y; Satyanarayana, S

    2011-01-01

    The prevalence of diabetes mellitus is increasing at a dramatic rate, and countries in Asia, particularly India and China, will bear the brunt of this epidemic. Persons with diabetes have a significantly increased risk of active tuberculosis (TB), which is two to three times higher than in persons...

  2. Antiretroviral Medication Adherence During The Ebola Epidemic In ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The 2014 Ebola outbreak is the largest in history and the first in West Africa. The outbreak affected multiple countries in West Africa. Worldwide, there have been 28,639 cases of Ebola virus disease and 11,316 deaths at 13 March 2016 in the world's worst recorded Ebola epidemic in Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone.

  3. Gendered Epidemics and Systems of Power in Africa: A Feminist ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    we, as women's health researchers and experts, ensure that knowledge and information about epidemics is shared timeously especially to those who are affected first? Because the systems of power and knowledge demand that knowledge only becomes relevant if one collaborates with the right people, if one quotes.

  4. An "Epidemic" of Adolescent Pregnancy? Some Historical and Policy Considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vinovskis, Maris A.

    Adolescent pregnancy (AP) is explored from historical and policy perspectives. The "epidemic" of AP, with 4 out of every 10 teenage girls becoming pregnant, is typically portrayed as a recent and unprecedented problem that requires massive federal intervention, but the problem is not new. Chapter 1 analyzes adolescent sexuality, AP, and…

  5. Spatial Big Data Analytics of Influenza Epidemic in Vellore, India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Daphne; Gunasekaran, M; Murugan, B Senthil; Kaur, Harpreet; Abbas, Kaja M

    2014-10-01

    The study objective is to develop a big spatial data model to predict the epidemiological impact of influenza in Vellore, India. Large repositories of geospatial and health data provide vital statistics on surveillance and epidemiological metrics, and valuable insight into the spatiotemporal determinants of disease and health. The integration of these big data sources and analytics to assess risk factors and geospatial vulnerability can assist to develop effective prevention and control strategies for influenza epidemics and optimize allocation of limited public health resources. We used the spatial epidemiology data of the HIN1 epidemic collected at the National Informatics Center during 2009-2010 in Vellore. We developed an ecological niche model based on geographically weighted regression for predicting influenza epidemics in Vellore, India during 2013-2014. Data on rainfall, temperature, wind speed, humidity and population are included in the geographically weighted regression analysis. We inferred positive correlations for H1N1 influenza prevalence with rainfall and wind speed, and negative correlations for H1N1 influenza prevalence with temperature and humidity. We evaluated the results of the geographically weighted regression model in predicting the spatial distribution of the influenza epidemic during 2013-2014.

  6. Avian Flu Epidemic 2003: Public health consequences. Executive summary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bosman A; Mulder YM; Leeuw JRJ de; Meijer A; Du Ry van Beest Holle M; Kamst RA; Velden PG van der; Conyn-van Spaendonck MAE; Koopmans MPG; Ruijten MWMM; Instituut voor Psychotrauma; CIE; MGO; LIS

    2004-01-01

    Executive summary Avian flu epidemic 2003: public health consequences.Risk factors, health, well-being, health care needs and preventive measures during the H7N7 avian flu outbreak control in the Netherlands.An estimated thousand people, possibly more have been infected with avian flu during the

  7. Neoliberal science, Chinese style: Making and managing the 'obesity epidemic'.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhalgh, Susan

    2016-08-01

    Science and Technology Studies has seen a growing interest in the commercialization of science. In this article, I track the role of corporations in the construction of the obesity epidemic, deemed one of the major public health threats of the century. Focusing on China, a rising superpower in the midst of rampant, state-directed neoliberalization, I unravel the process, mechanisms, and broad effects of the corporate invention of an obesity epidemic. Largely hidden from view, Western firms were central actors at every stage in the creation, definition, and governmental management of obesity as a Chinese disease. Two industry-funded global health entities and the exploitation of personal ties enabled actors to nudge the development of obesity science and policy along lines beneficial to large firms, while obscuring the nudging. From Big Pharma to Big Food and Big Soda, transnational companies have been profiting from the 'epidemic of Chinese obesity', while doing little to effectively treat or prevent it. The China case suggests how obesity might have been constituted an 'epidemic threat' in other parts of the world and underscores the need for global frameworks to guide the study of neoliberal science and policymaking.

  8. Efficient mitigation strategies for epidemics in rural regions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Caterina Scoglio

    Full Text Available Containing an epidemic at its origin is the most desirable mitigation. Epidemics have often originated in rural areas, with rural communities among the first affected. Disease dynamics in rural regions have received limited attention, and results of general studies cannot be directly applied since population densities and human mobility factors are very different in rural regions from those in cities. We create a network model of a rural community in Kansas, USA, by collecting data on the contact patterns and computing rates of contact among a sampled population. We model the impact of different mitigation strategies detecting closely connected groups of people and frequently visited locations. Within those groups and locations, we compare the effectiveness of random and targeted vaccinations using a Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered compartmental model on the contact network. Our simulations show that the targeted vaccinations of only 10% of the sampled population reduced the size of the epidemic by 34.5%. Additionally, if 10% of the population visiting one of the most popular locations is randomly vaccinated, the epidemic size is reduced by 19%. Our results suggest a new implementation of a highly effective strategy for targeted vaccinations through the use of popular locations in rural communities.

  9. Cardiovascular disease: A Global Epidemic extending into Sub ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Cardiovascular disease is a global epidemic; the prevalence is currently stable in the developed world but is on a rapid rise in the developing world particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. It is the commonest cause of morbidity and mortality globally. Its victims are older in the developed world but younger in Africa ...

  10. Information Spreading in Epidemics and in Communication Networks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uekermann, Florian Philipp

    The PhD thesis revolves mainly around models of disease spreading and human behavior. We present models for different epidemic patterns of infectious diseases. This includes investigations of the trajectory of the 2014 Ebola outbreak in West-Africa, influenza evolution and the seasonal dynamics...

  11. The epidemic of childhood obesity | du Toit | South African Medical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    South African Medical Journal. Journal Home · ABOUT · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 93, No 1 (2003) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. The epidemic of childhood obesity. G du Toit, M-T van der Merwe. Abstract.

  12. Community intervention for the emerging epidemic of non ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Community intervention for the emerging epidemic of non-communicable diseases. Thandi Puoane, Hazel Bradley, Gail Hughes. Abstract. No Abstract. South African Journal of Clinical Nutrition Vol. 19(2) 2006: 56-62. Full Text: EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT EMAIL FREE FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD ...

  13. An Epidemic of Oroya Fever in the Peruvian Andes

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-01-01

    Marafion River in regions with elevations of 600-2,450 m in Co- the Department of Ancash. Pomabamba Prov- 6 lumbia. Ecuador. Peru. Chile , Bolivia...lipopolysaccharide T’he epidemic began during the rainy season. (Difco laboratories. Detroit. M11) and Brucella November to May. Many of the lPrsi cases re

  14. Addressing the "Epidemic" of Overweight Children by Using the Internet

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Mick; Wallinga, Charlotte; Bales, Diane

    2009-01-01

    The Internet can be of great assistance to early childhood teachers in planning educational activities for the classroom and with families. This article explores how early childhood teachers can use resources online to address what has been called an "epidemic" of overweight children. Guidelines for using online resources are presented. (Contains…

  15. Topology dependent epidemic spreading velocity in weighted networks

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Duan, W.; Quax, R.; Lees, M.; Qiu, X.; Sloot, P.M.A.

    2014-01-01

    Many diffusive processes occur on structured networks with weighted links, such as disease spread by airplane transport or information diffusion in social networks or blogs. Understanding the impact of weight-connectivity correlations on epidemic spreading in weighted networks is crucial to support

  16. The chemical bases of the various AIDS epidemics: recreational ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Unknown

    [Duesberg P, Koehnlein C and Rasnick D 2003 The chemical bases of the various AIDS epidemics: recreational drugs, anti-viral chemo- ..... on AIDS in 1984 made a coherent case for lifestyle- or chemical AIDS, caused by recreational drugs or malnu- trition. 3. 1984: The virus-AIDS hypothesis takes over. By 1983 AIDS had ...

  17. Malaria Epidemics in Dembia, Northwest Ethiopia 1952 – 1953

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    unhcc

    1Department of History, Bahir Dar University, Email: fantahun@gmail.com, Phone: +251-911759867. Original article ... Objective: The main objective of this study is to investigate the history of the 1952/53 malaria epidemic in. Dembia and the scale of its devastation. ... In sub-Saharan Africa, malaria still claims 1-2 million ...

  18. Formal kinetics of H1N1 epidemic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gurevich Konstantin G

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The formal kinetics of the H1N1 epidemic seems to take the form of an exponential curve. There is a good correlation between this theoretical model and epidemiological data on the number of H1N1-infected people. But this formal model leads to paradoxes about the dates when everyone becomes infected: in Mexico this will happen after one year, then in the rest of the world. Further implications of the formal model The general limitations of this formal kinetics model are discussed. More detailed modeling is examined and the implications are examined in the light of currently available data. The evidence indicates that not more than 10% of the population is initially resistant to the H1N1 virus. Conclusion We are probably only at the initial stage of development of the H1N1 epidemic. Increasing the number of H1N1-resistant people in future (e.g. due to vaccination may influence the dynamics of epidemic development. At present, the development of the epidemic depends only on the number of people in the population who are initially resistant to the virus.

  19. Understanding Virtual Epidemics: Children's Folk Conceptions of a Computer Virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafai, Yasmin B.

    2008-01-01

    Our work investigates the annual outbreak of Whypox, a virtual epidemic in Whyville.net, a virtual world with over 1.2 million registered players ages 8-16. We examined online and classroom participants' understanding of a computer virus using surveys and design activities. Our analyses reveal that students have a mostly naive understanding of a…

  20. Using a Human Ecosystems Approach to the Obesity Epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, James E.; Painter, Rosemary; Wang, Xinyue; Schuster, Margaret

    2017-01-01

    Obesity has been increasing in all age groups worldwide for the past several decades. Yet for hundreds of years before the last quarter of the 20th century, obesity was not an issue. The etiology and the cure for the obesity epidemic have been elusive. Weight reduction diets and behavior therapy have not produced the desired results. Perhaps…

  1. Strengthening HIV surveillance: measurements to track the epidemic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Surveillance for HIV as a public health initiative requires timely, detailed and robust data to systematically understand burden of infection, transmission patterns, direct prevention efforts, guide funding, identify new infections and predict future trends in the epidemic. The methods for HIV surveillance have evolved to reliably ...

  2. Dynamics of cholera epidemics with impulsive vaccination and disinfection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisodiya, Omprakash Singh; Misra, O P; Dhar, Joydip

    2018-04-01

    Waterborne diseases have a tremendous influence on human life. The contaminated drinking water causes water-borne disease like cholera. Pulse vaccination is an important and effective strategy for the elimination of infectious diseases. A waterborne disease like cholera can also be controlled by using impulse technique. In this paper, we have proposed a delayed SEIRB epidemic model with impulsive vaccination and disinfection. We have studied the pulse vaccination strategy and sanitation to control the cholera disease. The existence and stability of the disease-free and endemic periodic solution are investigated both analytically and numerically. It is shown that there exists an infection-free periodic solution, using the impulsive dynamical system defined by the stroboscopic map. It is observed that the infection-free periodic solution is globally attractive when the impulse period is less than some critical value. From the analysis of the model, we have obtained a sufficient condition for the permanence of the epidemic with pulse vaccination. The main highlight of this paper is to introduce impulse technique along with latent period into the SEIRB epidemic model to investigate the role of pulse vaccination and disinfection on the dynamics of the cholera epidemics. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Young adults and aids epidemics: their perception awareness ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Background: Education and awareness is important in appreciating the seriousness of a disease, and in arousing feeling of concern about an epidemic in any society. Continuing trend show a disproportionate increase in new incidences of HIV infection among young adults in sub-Sahara Africa. This study aimed to ...

  4. Epidemics in Networks : Modeling, Optimization and Security Games

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Omic, J.

    2010-01-01

    Epidemic theory has wide range of applications in computer networks, from spreading of malware to the information dissemination algorithms. Our society depends more strongly than ever on such computer networks. Many of these networks rely to a large extent on decentralization and self-organization.

  5. Overcrowding and disease epidemics in colonial Lagos: rethinking ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Thus, it degenerated to overcrowding and disease epidemics as epitomised by the outbreak of tuberculosis and bubonic plague in 1919 and between 1924 and 1930 respectively. The paper, therefore, concludes that with the available evidence at our disposal, it is obvious that the road and railway were constructed to ...

  6. Etoposide for epidemic Kaposi's sarcoma: a phase II study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, P. J.; Danner, S. A.; Lange, J. M.; Veenhof, K. H.

    1988-01-01

    Fourteen untreated patients with epidemic Kaposi's sarcoma stages III and IV were treated with etoposide 150 mg/m2 on 3 consecutive days every 4 weeks. No responses were observed. Myelosuppression was severe with white blood count WHO grade 3-4 in nine patients and with platelets WHO grade 3-4 in

  7. Understanding the epidemic of HIV in South Africa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2. The intrinsic doubling time does not differ significantly among the provinces. 3. The average length of the intrinsic doubling time is 12.0 months (95% Cl. 11.3 - 12.8 months). ... Epidemiology Research Unit, PO Box 30606, Braamfontein, 2017. Brian Williams. ... the intrinsic growth rate of the epidemic (the rate of increase.

  8. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus among Farmed Pigs, Ukraine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dastjerdi, Akbar; Carr, John; Ellis, Richard J; Steinbach, Falko; Williamson, Susanna

    2015-12-01

    An outbreak of porcine epidemic diarrhea occurred in the summer of 2014 in Ukraine, severely affecting piglets <10 days of age; the mortality rate approached 100%. Full genome sequencing showed the virus to be closely related to strains reported from North America, showing a sequence identity of up to 99.8%.

  9. Effect of risk perception on epidemic spreading in temporal networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moinet, Antoine; Pastor-Satorras, Romualdo; Barrat, Alain

    2018-01-01

    Many progresses in the understanding of epidemic spreading models have been obtained thanks to numerous modeling efforts and analytical and numerical studies, considering host populations with very different structures and properties, including complex and temporal interaction networks. Moreover, a number of recent studies have started to go beyond the assumption of an absence of coupling between the spread of a disease and the structure of the contacts on which it unfolds. Models including awareness of the spread have been proposed, to mimic possible precautionary measures taken by individuals that decrease their risk of infection, but have mostly considered static networks. Here, we adapt such a framework to the more realistic case of temporal networks of interactions between individuals. We study the resulting model by analytical and numerical means on both simple models of temporal networks and empirical time-resolved contact data. Analytical results show that the epidemic threshold is not affected by the awareness but that the prevalence can be significantly decreased. Numerical studies on synthetic temporal networks highlight, however, the presence of very strong finite-size effects, resulting in a significant shift of the effective epidemic threshold in the presence of risk awareness. For empirical contact networks, the awareness mechanism leads as well to a shift in the effective threshold and to a strong reduction of the epidemic prevalence.

  10. Understanding the epidemic of HIV in South Africa | Williams | South ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives. To investigate the magnitude and the time course of the HIV epidemic in the provinces of South Africa from the antenatal clinic HIV surveys. Design. We analysed the data on the provincial prevalences of HIV infection from 1990 to 1996 using maximum likelihood methods to determine the intrinsic growth rate and ...

  11. Some Empirical Notes on the Epo Epidemic in Professional Cycling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lodewijkx, Hein F. M.; Brouwer, Bram

    2011-01-01

    The 1990-2010 period in professional cycling is labeled by some as the epo epidemic. Surprisingly, performance enhancement by epo and blood doping is not that clear-cut for endurance athletes, leading to the question whether doping indeed strongly influenced cyclists' performances from the 1990s onwards. We examined the records (1947-2008) of the…

  12. A study of the 2006 Chikungunya epidemic outbreak in Mauritius ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Chikungunya epidemic outbreaks have affected more than 1 million people in 2005-2006 in many Indian Ocean islands and in India. Mauritius experienced a major outbreak in February/March 2006 following a minor outbreak in April/May 2005. No cases have been registered on the island since August 2006.

  13. Is There an Epidemic of Child or Adolescent Depression?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costello, E. Jane; Erkanli, Alaattin; Angold, Adrian

    2006-01-01

    Background: Both the professional and the general media have recently published concerns about an "epidemic" of child and adolescent depression. Reasons for this concern include (1) increases in antidepressant prescriptions, (2) retrospective recall by successive birth cohorts of adults, (3) rising adolescent suicide rates until 1990,…

  14. Traveling Wave Solutions in a Reaction-Diffusion Epidemic Model

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Sheng; Liu, Wenbin; Guo, Zhengguang; Wang, Weiming

    2013-01-01

    We investigate the traveling wave solutions in a reaction-diffusion epidemic model. The existence of the wave solutions is derived through monotone iteration of a pair of classical upper and lower solutions. The traveling wave solutions are shown to be unique and strictly monotonic. Furthermore, we determine the critical minimal wave speed.

  15. Epidemic Hysteria in Schools: An International and Historical Overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartholomew, Robert E.; Sirois, Francois

    1996-01-01

    Examines the characteristic features of epidemic hysteria reports in school settings. Discovers three distinct symptom patterns: (1) mass motor hysteria (psychomotor alterations due to preexisting stress); (2) mass anxiety hysteria (extreme anxiety following the redefinition of a mundane event); and (3) mass pseudo-hysteria (relabeling of mundane…

  16. The Opioid Epidemic: 7 Things Educators Need to Know

    Science.gov (United States)

    Welsh, Justine W.; Rappaport, Nancy; Tretyak, Valeria

    2018-01-01

    Opioid abuse has become an epidemic in America and exposure to the drugs often begins in high school. This article shares some facts about opioid use and some signs and symptoms to look for in students who may be addicted to the drug. The authors also offer tips for educators on how to deal with the legal issues involved in assessing, reporting,…

  17. Molecular evolution and the natural history of select virus epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne

    Molecular evolution of pathogenic viruses with RNA based genomes is most often fast enough to leave an informative genomic sequence signal within a timeframe that is relevant for the study of both recent and on-­‐going epidemics (and epizootics). The true power of molecular evolutionary methodolo...

  18. The effect of awareness on networked SIS epidemics

    KAUST Repository

    Paarporn, Keith

    2017-01-05

    We study an SIS epidemic model over an arbitrary fixed network topology where the n agents, or nodes of the network, have partial information about the epidemic state. The agents react by distancing themselves from their neighbors when they believe the epidemic is currently prevalent. An agent\\'s awareness is weighted from three sources of information: the fraction of infected neighbors in their contact network, their social network, and a global broadcast of the fraction of infected nodes in the entire network. The dynamics of the benchmark (no awareness) and awareness models are described by discrete-time 2-state Markov chains. Through a coupling technique, we establish monotonicity properties between the benchmark and awareness models. Particularly, we show that the expectation of any increasing random variable on the space of sample paths, e.g. eradication time or total infections, is lower for the awareness model. In addition, we give a characterization for this difference of expectations in terms of the coupling distribution. In simulations, we evaluate how different sources of information affect the spread of an epidemic.

  19. Alkaline stabilization of manure slurry inactivates porcine epidemic diarrhea virus

    Science.gov (United States)

    The porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDv) outbreak in North America has substantially impacted swine production since it causes nearly 100% mortality in infected pre-weaned piglets. The PED virus is transmitted via the fecal oral route and manure may remain a source of reinfection; therefore, prop...

  20. The chemical bases of the various AIDS epidemics: recreational ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Assuming immunodeficiency as the common denominator the US Centers for Disease Control (CDC) termed the epidemic, AIDS, for acquired immunodeficiency syndrome. From 1981–1984 leading researchers including those from the CDC proposed that recreational drug use was the cause of AIDS, because of exact ...

  1. The influence of the school year on measles epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andreasen, Viggo

    The measles incidence record for Copenhagen 1880-1966 shows that the date of admission of new pupils has major impact on the structure of the epidemics, suggesting that measles transmission should be modelled in a way that accounts for the pulsed influx of new pupils. Assuming that the school year...

  2. The 1992 measles epidemic in Cape Town - a changing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Over the last 6 years there has been a decline in the incidence of measles in Cape Town. However, during August 1992 an outbreak occurred, with cases reported at many schools in children presumably immunised. The objectives of this study were to characterise the epidemic in Cape Town and to determine possible ...

  3. A stochastic modeling of recurrent measles epidemic | Kassem ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A simple stochastic mathematical model is developed and investigated for the dynamics of measles epidemic. The model, which is a multi-dimensional diffusion process, includes susceptible individuals, latent (exposed), infected and removed individuals. Stochastic effects are assumed to arise in the process of infection of ...

  4. Using Clinicians’ Search Query Data to Monitor Influenza Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillana, Mauricio; Nsoesie, Elaine O.; Mekaru, Sumiko R.; Scales, David; Brownstein, John S.

    2014-01-01

    Search query information from a clinician's database, UpToDate, is shown to predict influenza epidemics in the United States in a timely manner. Our results show that digital disease surveillance tools based on experts' databases may be able to provide an alternative, reliable, and stable signal for accurate predictions of influenza outbreaks. PMID:25115873

  5. A hidden HIV epidemic among women in Vietnam

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nguyen, Thu Anh; Oosterhoff, Pauline; Hardon, Anita; Tran, Hien Nguyen; Coutinho, Roel A.; Wright, Pamela

    2008-01-01

    Background: The HIV epidemic in Vietnam is still concentrated among high risk populations, including IDU and FSW. The response of the government has focused on the recognized high risk populations, mainly young male drug users. This concentration on one high risk population may leave other

  6. Virulence evolution at the front line of spreading epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griette, Quentin; Raoul, Gaël; Gandon, Sylvain

    2015-11-01

    Understanding and predicting the spatial spread of emerging pathogens is a major challenge for the public health management of infectious diseases. Theoretical epidemiology shows that the speed of an epidemic is governed by the life-history characteristics of the pathogen and its ability to disperse. Rapid evolution of these traits during the invasion may thus affect the speed of epidemics. Here we study the influence of virulence evolution on the spatial spread of an epidemic. At the edge of the invasion front, we show that more virulent and transmissible genotypes are expected to win the competition with other pathogens. Behind the front line, however, more prudent exploitation strategies outcompete virulent pathogens. Crucially, even when the presence of the virulent mutant is limited to the edge of the front, the invasion speed can be dramatically altered by pathogen evolution. We support our analysis with individual-based simulations and we discuss the additional effects of demographic stochasticity taking place at the front line on virulence evolution. We confirm that an increase of virulence can occur at the front, but only if the carrying capacity of the invading pathogen is large enough. These results are discussed in the light of recent empirical studies examining virulence evolution at the edge of spreading epidemics. © 2015 The Author(s). Evolution © 2015 The Society for the Study of Evolution.

  7. An epidemic of cockles-associated hepatitis A in Singapore.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goh, K T; Chan, L; Ding, J L; Oon, C J

    1984-01-01

    An epidemic of serologically confirmed hepatitis A occurred between May and September 1983 in Singapore. The vehicle of transmission was traced to raw and partially cooked cockles, Anadara granosa, which had been imported from places with no sanitary control on the production. Strict controls on imported cockles are warranted.

  8. A social contagious model of the obesity epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, He; Yan, Zhijun; Chen, Yahong; Liu, Fangyan

    2016-11-01

    Obesity has been recognized as a global epidemic by WHO, followed by many empirical evidences to prove its infectiousness. However, the inter-person spreading dynamics of obesity are seldom studied. A distinguishing feature of the obesity epidemic is that it is driven by a social contagion process which cannot be perfectly described by the infectious disease models. In this paper, we propose a novel belief decision model based on the famous Dempster-Shafer theory of evidence to model obesity epidemic as the competing spread of two obesity-related behaviors: physical inactivity and physical activity. The transition of health states is described by an SIS model. Results reveal the existence of obesity epidemic threshold, above which obesity is quickly eradicated. When increasing the fading level of information spread, enlarging the clustering of initial obese seeds, or introducing small-world characteristics into the network topology, the threshold is easily met. Social discrimination against the obese people plays completely different roles in two cases: on one hand, when obesity cannot be eradicated, social discrimination can reduce the number of obese people; on the other hand, when obesity is eradicable, social discrimination may instead cause it breaking out.

  9. Predicting epidemic evolution on contact networks from partial observations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacopo Bindi

    Full Text Available The massive employment of computational models in network epidemiology calls for the development of improved inference methods for epidemic forecast. For simple compartment models, such as the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered model, Belief Propagation was proved to be a reliable and efficient method to identify the origin of an observed epidemics. Here we show that the same method can be applied to predict the future evolution of an epidemic outbreak from partial observations at the early stage of the dynamics. The results obtained using Belief Propagation are compared with Monte Carlo direct sampling in the case of SIR model on random (regular and power-law graphs for different observation methods and on an example of real-world contact network. Belief Propagation gives in general a better prediction that direct sampling, although the quality of the prediction depends on the quantity under study (e.g. marginals of individual states, epidemic size, extinction-time distribution and on the actual number of observed nodes that are infected before the observation time.

  10. Zika virus epidemic: the newest international emergency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ruth Minamisava

    2016-03-01

    production, accurate diagnosis and treatment, training for caring for neurological syndromes and congenital malformations. (iii          Measures for travelers: counseling, disinfestation of aircrafts and airports. (iv          Sharing of information. Some inquiries have been made about the magnitude of this epidemic and its association with microcephaly and neurological disorders(4-5. It is reasonable to consider that there is an underreporting of microcephaly in the records of the Live Births Information System in Brazil. It is also to be expected that, after the national alert, the number of suspected cases would rise. When there is an increase or the implementation of surveillance, this always results in higher sensitivity of detection of suspected/reported cases with an increase in false positives. For these reasons, it is possible to say that part of the increase in reported cases of microcephaly may be attributable to the current intense surveillance. What is inconceivable, however, is that the prevalence of microcephaly in northeastern Brazil is 10 to 20 times higher than in other countries(6. At present, there are hypotheses that the Zika virus may have an etiologic and/or pathophysiological role for these events, which is usually rare. What seems indisputable is the gravity of the situation. Health managers cannot wait for high-level scientific evidence. Care and prudence when assessing is advisable, and the same goes for avoiding premature conclusions. However, given the potential threat, we have a duty to at least protect pregnant women and their fetuses. The current situation poses many challenges that we need to face and it seems logical that Brazil take the lead in beginning the actions. We recognize in our history both the success in the fight against yellow fever early in the last century and also our recent inefficiency in the fight against the Aedes aegypti mosquito to control dengue and chikungunya. It is necessary to create, renew, and

  11. Rainfall mediations in the spreading of epidemic cholera

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righetto, L.; Bertuzzo, E.; Mari, L.; Schild, E.; Casagrandi, R.; Gatto, M.; Rodriguez-Iturbe, I.; Rinaldo, A.

    2013-10-01

    Following the empirical evidence of a clear correlation between rainfall events and cholera resurgence that was observed in particular during the recent outbreak in Haiti, a spatially explicit model of epidemic cholera is re-examined. Specifically, we test a multivariate Poisson rainfall generator, with parameters varying in space and time, as a driver of enhanced disease transmission. The relevance of the issue relates to the key insight that predictive mathematical models may provide into the course of an ongoing cholera epidemic aiding emergency management (say, in allocating life-saving supplies or health care staff) or in evaluating alternative management strategies. Our model consists of a set of dynamical equations (SIRB-like i.e. subdivided into the compartments of Susceptible, Infected and Recovered individuals, and including a balance of Bacterial concentrations in the water reservoir) describing a connected network of human communities where the infection results from the exposure to excess concentrations of pathogens in the water. These, in turn, are driven by rainfall washout of open-air defecation sites or cesspool overflows, hydrologic transport through waterways and by mobility of susceptible and infected individuals. We perform an a posteriori analysis (from the beginning of the epidemic in October 2010 until December 2011) to test the model reliability in predicting cholera cases and in testing control measures, involving vaccination and sanitation campaigns, for the ongoing epidemic. Even though predicting reliably the timing of the epidemic resurgence proves difficult due to rainfall inter-annual variability, we find that the model can reasonably quantify the total number of reported infection cases in the selected time-span. We then run a multi-seasonal prediction of the course of the epidemic until December 2015, to investigate conditions for further resurgences and endemicity of cholera in the region with a view to policies which may bring to

  12. The severe acute respiratory syndrome epidemic in mainland China dissected

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wuchun Cao

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available This paper provides a review of a recently published series of studies that give a detailed and comprehensive documentation of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS epidemic in mainland China, which severely struck the country in the spring of 2003. The epidemic spanned a large geographical extent but clustered in two areas: first in Guangdong Province, and about 3 months later in Beijing with its surrounding areas. Reanalysis of all available epidemiological data resulted in a total of 5327 probable cases of SARS, of whom 343 died. The resulting case fatality ratio (CFR of 6.4% was less than half of that in other SARS-affected countries or areas, and this difference could only partly be explained by younger age of patients and higher number of community acquired infections. Analysis of the impact of interventions demonstrated that strong political commitment and a centrally coordinated response was the most important factor to control SARS in mainland China, whereas the most stringent control measures were all initiated when the epidemic was already dying down. The long-term economic consequence of the epidemic was limited, much consumption was merely postponed, but for Beijing irrecoverable losses to the tourist sector were considerable. An important finding from a cohort study was that many former SARS patients currently suffer from avascular osteo­necrosis, as a consequence of the treatment with corticosteroids during their infection. The SARS epidemic provided valuable information and lessons relevant in controlling outbreaks of newly emerging infectious diseases, and has led to fundamental reforms of the Chinese health system. In particular, a comprehensive nation-wide internet-based disease reporting system was established.

  13. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elodie Descloux

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia, and to provide an early warning system. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was

  14. The Cappadocia mesothelioma epidemic: its influence in Turkey and abroad.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emri, Salih A

    2017-06-01

    The epidemic of mesothelioma in Cappadocia, Turkey, is unprecedented in medical history. In three Cappadocian villages, Karain, Tuzkoy and "old" Sarihidir, about 50% of all deaths (including neonatal deaths and traffic fatalities) have been caused by mesothelioma. No other epidemic in medical history has caused such a high incidence of death. This is even more unusual when considering that (I) epidemics are caused by infectious agents, not cancer, and (II) mesothelioma is a rare cancer. World-wide mesothelioma incidence varies between 1/10 6 in areas with no asbestos industry to about 10-30/10 6 in areas with asbestos industry. This article reviews how the mesothelioma epidemic was discovered in Cappadocia by Dr. Baris (my mentor), how we initially linked the epidemic to erionite exposure, and later (with Dr. Carbone) to the interaction between genetic predisposition and environmental exposure. Our team's work had an important positive impact on the lives of those living in Cappadocia and also in many genetically predisposed families living around the world. I will discuss how the work that started in three remote Cappadocian villages led to the award of a NCI P01 grant to support our studies. Our studies proved that genetics modulates mineral fiber carcinogenesis and led to the discovery that carriers of germline BAP1 mutations have a very high risk of developing mesothelioma and other malignancies. A new, very active field of research developed following our discoveries to elucidate the mechanism by which BAP1 modulates mineral fiber carcinogenesis as well as to identify additional genes that when mutated increase the risk of mesothelioma and other environmentally related cancers. I am the only surviving member of this research team who saw all the phases of this research and I believe it is important to provide an accurate report, which hopefully will inspire others.

  15. Outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis caused by adenovirus in medical residents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melendez, Carlos Pantoja; Florentino, Margarita Matias; Martinez, Irma Lopez; Lopez, Herlinda Mejia

    2009-01-01

    The present work documents an outbreak of epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among ophthalmology residents, its influence in the presentation of the community cases, the use of molecular techniques for its diagnosis, and the implementation of successful control measures for its containment. Isolation of the etiologic agent was achieved using cultured African green monkey kidney epithelial cells (VERO). Through molecular tests, such as polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and DNA sequencing, the genotype of the isolated virus was identified. The sequences obtained were aligned with data reported in the NCBI GenBank. A scheme of outbreak control measures was designed to enforce correct sanitary measures in the clinic. The statistical program, Epi info 2002, and openepi were used to determine the attack rate. The Excel Microsoft program was used to elaborate the endemic channel. Nine of the ten samples studied were isolated from the culture and identified by Adenovirus-specifc PCR. Sequencing allowed identification of Ad8 as the agent responsible for the outbreak. The attack rate was 24.39 cases per 100. The epidemic curve allowed identification of a disseminated source in the Institute of Ophthalmology "Conde de Valenciana." It was not possible to calculate the incubation periods among the cases. The endemic channel showed the presence of an epidemic keratoconjunctivitis among the patients that had been cared for at the out-patient services of the institute. One outbreak of a disseminated source caused by Ad8 was detected in the institute among its medical residents, probably associated with relaxation of the habitual sanitary measures during an epidemic of hemorrhagic conjunctivitis among the patients cared for at the institute. The proposed scheme to control the outbreak allowed for its containment and controlled the epidemic of associated cases.

  16. Climate-based models for understanding and forecasting dengue epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descloux, Elodie; Mangeas, Morgan; Menkes, Christophe Eugène; Lengaigne, Matthieu; Leroy, Anne; Tehei, Temaui; Guillaumot, Laurent; Teurlai, Magali; Gourinat, Ann-Claire; Benzler, Justus; Pfannstiel, Anne; Grangeon, Jean-Paul; Degallier, Nicolas; De Lamballerie, Xavier

    2012-01-01

    Dengue dynamics are driven by complex interactions between human-hosts, mosquito-vectors and viruses that are influenced by environmental and climatic factors. The objectives of this study were to analyze and model the relationships between climate, Aedes aegypti vectors and dengue outbreaks in Noumea (New Caledonia), and to provide an early warning system. Epidemiological and meteorological data were analyzed from 1971 to 2010 in Noumea. Entomological surveillance indices were available from March 2000 to December 2009. During epidemic years, the distribution of dengue cases was highly seasonal. The epidemic peak (March-April) lagged the warmest temperature by 1-2 months and was in phase with maximum precipitations, relative humidity and entomological indices. Significant inter-annual correlations were observed between the risk of outbreak and summertime temperature, precipitations or relative humidity but not ENSO. Climate-based multivariate non-linear models were developed to estimate the yearly risk of dengue outbreak in Noumea. The best explicative meteorological variables were the number of days with maximal temperature exceeding 32°C during January-February-March and the number of days with maximal relative humidity exceeding 95% during January. The best predictive variables were the maximal temperature in December and maximal relative humidity during October-November-December of the previous year. For a probability of dengue outbreak above 65% in leave-one-out cross validation, the explicative model predicted 94% of the epidemic years and 79% of the non epidemic years, and the predictive model 79% and 65%, respectively. The epidemic dynamics of dengue in Noumea were essentially driven by climate during the last forty years. Specific conditions based on maximal temperature and relative humidity thresholds were determinant in outbreaks occurrence. Their persistence was also crucial. An operational model that will enable health authorities to anticipate the

  17. Viral conductance : Quantifying the robustness of networks with respect to spread of epidemics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Youssef, M.; Kooij, R.E.; Scoglio, C.

    2011-01-01

    In this paper, we propose a novel measure, viral conductance (VC), to assess the robustness of complex networks with respect to the spread of SIS epidemics. In contrast to classical measures that assess the robustness of networks based on the epidemic threshold above which an epidemic takes place,

  18. An urban epidemic of human myiasis caused by Dermatobia hominis in French Guiana.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clyti, Emmanuel; Deligny, Christophe; Nacher, Mathieu; Del Giudice, Pascal; Sainte-Marie, Dominique; Pradinaud, Roger; Couppie, Pierre

    2008-11-01

    We report the onset of an urban epidemic of human myiasis caused by Dermatobia hominis. To our knowledge, this is the first urban epidemic described for D. hominis. The epidemic was most likely related to exceptional weather conditions and notably high rainfall in January 2000, which may have facilitated the maturation of the pupae.

  19. Estimation of the Malthusian parameter in an stochastic epidemic model using martingale methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindenstrand, David; Svensson, Åke

    2013-12-01

    Data, on the number of infected, gathered from a large epidemic outbreak can be used to estimate parameters related to the strength and speed of the spread. The Malthusian parameter, which determines the initial growth rate of the epidemic is often of crucial interest. Using a simple epidemic SEIR model with known generation time distribution, we define and analyze an estimate, based on martingale methods. We derive asymptotic properties of the estimate and compare them to the results from simulations of the epidemic. The estimate uses all the information contained in the epidemic curve, in contrast to estimates which only use data from the start of the outbreak.

  20. Mobile laboratory to improve response to meningitis epidemics, Burkina Faso epidemic season 2004

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. T. Ouedraogo

    2009-07-01

    Full Text Available A Mobile Laboratory was developed for use primarily during the epidemic meningitis season in Burkina Faso. This report describes the Mobile Laboratory characteristics, its use to date, problems encountered and their resolution, and future directions. During 2004, the mobile laboratory intervention in three remote Burkina Faso districts experiencing meningitis epidemics led to more specific case management and led directly to vaccination of one district. However, in a second district, the intervention occurred too late to allow vaccination. During 2006, the Mobile Laboratory was used to conduct an emergency carriage study that for the first time occurred during the peak of a meningococcal serogroup A epidemic. This information is critical for the design of meningococcal conjugate vaccine schedules and vaccine approaches. During 2004-6, technicians in 11 district laboratories received training by Mobile Laboratory staff. Numerous problems with the initial prototype laboratory were identified, namely that the solar power cells could not provide enough energy to the refrigerator and incubator to maintain appropriate temperatures and having a single integrated unit required use of a separate vehicle for specimen transport. A second laboratory was developed during 2005-6 that used a generator or local energy source for power and that had a laboratory that could be detached from the vehicle. Currently the main limitation of the Mobile Laboratory is that it has not been integrated into routine Ministry of Health activities, limiting its use both during and between meningitis seasons.Un Laboratoire Mobile a été développé pour être utilisé essentiellement pendant la saison d’épidémie de méningite au Burkina Faso. Ce rapport décrit les caractéristiques du Laboratoire Mobile, son utilisation à ce jour, les problèmes rencontrés et leur résolution ainsi que les orientations futures. Au cours de l’année 2004, l’intervention du

  1. Forecast and control of epidemics in a globalized world.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hufnagel, L; Brockmann, D; Geisel, T

    2004-10-19

    The rapid worldwide spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome demonstrated the potential threat an infectious disease poses in a closely interconnected and interdependent world. Here we introduce a probabilistic model that describes the worldwide spread of infectious diseases and demonstrate that a forecast of the geographical spread of epidemics is indeed possible. This model combines a stochastic local infection dynamics among individuals with stochastic transport in a worldwide network, taking into account national and international civil aviation traffic. Our simulations of the severe acute respiratory syndrome outbreak are in surprisingly good agreement with published case reports. We show that the high degree of predictability is caused by the strong heterogeneity of the network. Our model can be used to predict the worldwide spread of future infectious diseases and to identify endangered regions in advance. The performance of different control strategies is analyzed, and our simulations show that a quick and focused reaction is essential to inhibiting the global spread of epidemics.

  2. Approximate Bayesian computation for spatial SEIR(S) epidemic models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Grant D; Porter, Aaron T; Oleson, Jacob J; Hinman, Jessica A

    2018-02-01

    Approximate Bayesia n Computation (ABC) provides an attractive approach to estimation in complex Bayesian inferential problems for which evaluation of the kernel of the posterior distribution is impossible or computationally expensive. These highly parallelizable techniques have been successfully applied to many fields, particularly in cases where more traditional approaches such as Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) are impractical. In this work, we demonstrate the application of approximate Bayesian inference to spatially heterogeneous Susceptible-Exposed-Infectious-Removed (SEIR) stochastic epidemic models. These models have a tractable posterior distribution, however MCMC techniques nevertheless become computationally infeasible for moderately sized problems. We discuss the practical implementation of these techniques via the open source ABSEIR package for R. The performance of ABC relative to traditional MCMC methods in a small problem is explored under simulation, as well as in the spatially heterogeneous context of the 2014 epidemic of Chikungunya in the Americas. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. [An iatrogenic epidemic of ophthalmia neonatorum (author's transl)].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salminen, L; Mattila, L; Pitkänen, Y

    1982-02-01

    Report on an epidemic of five cases of ophthalmia neonatorum caused by pseudomonas aeruginosa. The patients represented about 8% of the infants born and treated in one department during a period of six weeks. In four cases the ON was protracted in two patients it was complicated by dacryostenosis. At first all the patients were treated with locally administered chloramphenicol, to which pseudomonas aeruginosa was resistant. The three cases the serous secretion ended after opening of the lacrimal ducts together with local treatment with polymyxin, neomycin and gramicidin. In one case the pseudomonas aerginosa, together with S. aureus found in the secretion in vitro, was found to be sensitive to a combination of trimethoprim and sulfamethoxazole, given perorally, which terminated the secretion. The epidemic was evidently caused by the use of contaminated water in the nursery room.

  4. Demography and diffusion in epidemics: malaria and black death spread.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudart, J; Ghassani, M; Mintsa, J; Rachdi, M; Waku, J; Demongeot, J

    2010-09-01

    The classical models of epidemics dynamics by Ross and McKendrick have to be revisited in order to incorporate elements coming from the demography (fecundity, mortality and migration) both of host and vector populations and from the diffusion and mutation of infectious agents. The classical approach is indeed dealing with populations supposed to be constant during the epidemic wave, but the presently observed pandemics show duration of their spread during years imposing to take into account the host and vector population changes as well as the transient or permanent migration and diffusion of hosts (susceptible or infected), as well as vectors and infectious agents. Two examples are presented, one concerning the malaria in Mali and the other the plague at the middle-age.

  5. Epidemic Increase in Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus in Copenhagen

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Westh, Henrik; Boye, Kit; Bartels, Mette Damkjær

    2006-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: We have found an epidemic increase in methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) in Copenhagen. The increase has a complex background and involves hospitals, nursing homes and persons nursed in their own home. MATERIAL AND METHODS: We found 33 MRSA patients in 2003 and 121...... in 2004. All isolates have been spa-typed and epidemiologic information collected. RESULTS: The number of MRSA cases has a doubling time of about six months. The epidemic has been caused by many different MRSA types and 31 staphylococcus protein A genotypes (spa types). MRSA has caused several hospital...... outbreaks and is endemic in 10 nursing homes. Five staff members from nursing homes have been infected with MRSA. MRSA commonly causes skin and soft tissue infections (76%), but serious infections such as septicaemia and pneumonia are also found. CONCLUSION: Treatment of MRSA-infected patients is costly due...

  6. Optimal vaccination and treatment of an epidemic network model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, Lijuan [Department of Mathematics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092 (China); College of Mathematics and Computer Science, Fuzhou University, Fuzhou, Fujian 350002 (China); Sun, Jitao, E-mail: sunjt@sh163.net [Department of Mathematics, Tongji University, Shanghai 200092 (China)

    2014-08-22

    In this Letter, we firstly propose an epidemic network model incorporating two controls which are vaccination and treatment. For the constant controls, by using Lyapunov function, global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium of the model is investigated. For the non-constant controls, by using the optimal control strategy, we discuss an optimal strategy to minimize the total number of the infected and the cost associated with vaccination and treatment. Table 1 and Figs. 1–5 are presented to show the global stability and the efficiency of this optimal control. - Highlights: • Propose an optimally controlled SIRS epidemic model on heterogeneous networks. • Obtain criteria of global stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium. • Investigate existence of optimal control for the control problem. • The results be illustrated by some numerical simulations.

  7. [Increased epidemic incidence of hepatitis B in a district hospital].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jakob, A; Mönch, E

    1978-01-15

    It is reported on an epidemic of hepatitis B of 29 patients in a district hospital. Due to diagnostic errors in importation and a more frequent appearance of diseases of hepatitis B in the surgical department and the 2nd medical department, in which above all diabetics are treated, took place. The average age of the patients was 55 years. In all patients the clinical course was to be regarded as severe. 4 of 29 patients died. In all patients the hepatitis B disease showed a pronounced jaundice with high transaminases, particularly the SGOT and LAP were clearly increased. Also the duration of the presence was longer than in hepatitis A as well as the transition into chronic hepatitis was more frequent. By diagnostic information of the physicians and the other medical staff as well as improved measures of desinfection the epidemic could be restricted.

  8. Could viruses contribute to the worldwide epidemic of obesity?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atkinson, Richard L

    2008-01-01

    The prevalence of obesity in children increased rapidly starting about 1980 in both developed and developing countries. Studies of changes in diet and physical activity, television watching, and food advertisements on television suggest that these are not sufficient to explain the epidemic. The pattern of rapid spread is suggestive of an infectious origin. The concept of virus-induced obesity is not new. Eight viruses have been shown to cause obesity in animals and there is evidence for virus-induced obesity in humans. Recent evidence on animal and human adenoviruses suggests that these adenoviruses may infect adipocytes to alter enzymes and transcription factors resulting in accumulation of triglycerides and differentiation of preadipocytes into mature adipocytes. The E4orf1 gene of Ad-36 has been shown to be responsible for the adipogenic effect. It appears that a portion of the worldwide epidemic of obesity since 1980 could be due to infections with human adenoviruses.

  9. Dynamic malware containment under an epidemic model with alert

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Tianrui; Yang, Lu-Xing; Yang, Xiaofan; Wu, Yingbo; Tang, Yuan Yan

    2017-03-01

    Alerting at the early stage of malware invasion turns out to be an important complement to malware detection and elimination. This paper addresses the issue of how to dynamically contain the prevalence of malware at a lower cost, provided alerting is feasible. A controlled epidemic model with alert is established, and an optimal control problem based on the epidemic model is formulated. The optimality system for the optimal control problem is derived. The structure of an optimal control for the proposed optimal control problem is characterized under some conditions. Numerical examples show that the cost-efficiency of an optimal control strategy can be enhanced by adjusting the upper and lower bounds on admissible controls.

  10. Strategies for optical transport network recovery under epidemic network failures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruepp, Sarah Renée; Fagertun, Anna Manolova; Kosteas, Vasileios

    2015-01-01

    are evaluated under multiple correlated large-scale failures. We employ the Susceptible–Infected– Disabled epidemic failure spreading model and look into possible trade-offs between resiliency and resource effi- ciency. Via extensive simulations, we show that source rerouting outperforms on-site rerouting......The current trend in deploying automatic control plane solutions for increased flexibility in the optical transport layer leads to numerous advantages for both the operators and the customers, but also pose challenges related to the stability of the network and its ability to operate in a robust......, and that there exist a clear trade-off between policy performance and network resource consumption, which must be addressed by network operators for improved robustness of their transport infrastructures. Applying proactive methods for avoiding areas where epidemic failures spread results in 50% less connections...

  11. Estimation of under-reporting in epidemics using approximations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gamado, Kokouvi; Streftaris, George; Zachary, Stan

    2017-06-01

    Under-reporting in epidemics, when it is ignored, leads to under-estimation of the infection rate and therefore of the reproduction number. In the case of stochastic models with temporal data, a usual approach for dealing with such issues is to apply data augmentation techniques through Bayesian methodology. Departing from earlier literature approaches implemented using reversible jump Markov chain Monte Carlo (RJMCMC) techniques, we make use of approximations to obtain faster estimation with simple MCMC. Comparisons among the methods developed here, and with the RJMCMC approach, are carried out and highlight that approximation-based methodology offers useful alternative inference tools for large epidemics, with a good trade-off between time cost and accuracy.

  12. Imitations and Transformations: On Side Effects of the ADHD Epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Bjarke

    2017-04-01

    The attention deficit hyperactivity disorder epidemic has been the subject of much scrutiny, especially in relation to the medicalization of children, and, to a lesser degree, to the use of Ritalin as a performance enhancer or party drug (e.g., Keane 2008; Whitaker 2010; Bowden 2013). In this article, my focus is on non-investigated side effects of this epidemic, namely the use of (prescription) Ritalin among heavy drug users. Based on fieldwork conducted in one of the largest cities in Denmark, in this article I trace the spread of intravenous use of Ritalin, and examine how different ways of ingesting Ritalin transform the drug itself, and, with this, transform treatment practices, parts of the drug scene, and the bodies of users. In my analysis, I draw on insights from anthropological theories on imitation and from material semiotics.

  13. Global Changes in Food Supply and the Obesity Epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zobel, Emilie H.; Hansen, Tine W; Rossing, Peter

    2016-01-01

    power and available per capita food. Supermarkets and a growing fast-food industry have transformed our dietary pattern. Ultra-processed food rich on sugars and saturated fat is now the major source of energy in most countries. The shift in food supply is considered a major driver of the obesity......Purpose of Review We explore how a global shift in the food system caused by global economic growth, increase in available food per capita and in food processing is a driver of the obesity epidemic. Recent Findings Economic development in most areas of the world has resulted in increased purchasing...... The shift in the food supply is a major driver of the obesity epidemic....

  14. Mathematics of epidemics on networks from exact to approximate models

    CERN Document Server

    Kiss, István Z; Simon, Péter L

    2017-01-01

    This textbook provides an exciting new addition to the area of network science featuring a stronger and more methodical link of models to their mathematical origin and explains how these relate to each other with special focus on epidemic spread on networks. The content of the book is at the interface of graph theory, stochastic processes and dynamical systems. The authors set out to make a significant contribution to closing the gap between model development and the supporting mathematics. This is done by: Summarising and presenting the state-of-the-art in modeling epidemics on networks with results and readily usable models signposted throughout the book; Presenting different mathematical approaches to formulate exact and solvable models; Identifying the concrete links between approximate models and their rigorous mathematical representation; Presenting a model hierarchy and clearly highlighting the links between model assumptions and model complexity; Providing a reference source for advanced undergraduate...

  15. Vaccination Strategies: a comparative study in an epidemic scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prates, D. B.; Jardim, C. L. T. F.; Ferreira, L. A. F.; da Silva, J. M.; Kritz, M. V.

    2016-08-01

    Epidemics are an extremely important matter of study within the Mathematical Modeling area and can be widely found in the literature. Some epidemiological models use differential equations, which are very sensible to parameters, to represent and describe the diseases mathematically. For this work, a variation of the SIR model is discussed and applied to a certain epidemic scenario, wherein vaccination is introduced through two different strategies: constant vaccination and vaccination in pulses. Other epidemiological and population aspects are also considered, such as mortality/natality and infection rates. The analysis and results are performed through numerical solutions of the model and a special attention is given to the discussion generated by the paramenters variation.

  16. Porcine Epidemic Diarrhea Virus Induces Autophagy to Benefit Its Replication

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaozhen Guo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The new porcine epidemic diarrhea (PED has caused devastating economic losses to the swine industry worldwide. Despite extensive research on the relationship between autophagy and virus infection, the concrete role of autophagy in porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV infection has not been reported. In this study, autophagy was demonstrated to be triggered by the effective replication of PEDV through transmission electron microscopy, confocal microscopy, and Western blot analysis. Moreover, autophagy was confirmed to benefit PEDV replication by using autophagy regulators and RNA interference. Furthermore, autophagy might be associated with the expression of inflammatory cytokines and have a positive feedback loop with the NF-κB signaling pathway during PEDV infection. This work is the first attempt to explore the complex interplay between autophagy and PEDV infection. Our findings might accelerate our understanding of the pathogenesis of PEDV infection and provide new insights into the development of effective therapeutic strategies.

  17. Epidemic of Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection in Denmark, 2010 and 2011

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Uldum, S A; Bangsborg, Jette Marie; Gahrn-Hansen, Bente

    2012-01-01

    Denmark experienced two waves of Mycoplasma pneumoniae infection during autumn and early winter in 2010 and 2011, respectively. Both affected the whole country. The proportion of positive results was almost the same for both, indicating that the two waves were probably of equal size. High macroli...... consumption during the epidemics did not seem to affect levels of macrolide resistance in M. pneumoniae, which remain low in Demark (1% to 3%)....

  18. GEMFsim: A Stochastic Simulator for the Generalized Epidemic Modeling Framework

    OpenAIRE

    Sahneh, Faryad Darabi; Vajdi, Aram; Shakeri, Heman; Fan, Futing; Scoglio, Caterina

    2016-01-01

    The recently proposed generalized epidemic modeling framework (GEMF) \\cite{sahneh2013generalized} lays the groundwork for systematically constructing a broad spectrum of stochastic spreading processes over complex networks. This article builds an algorithm for exact, continuous-time numerical simulation of GEMF-based processes. Moreover the implementation of this algorithm, GEMFsim, is available in popular scientific programming platforms such as MATLAB, R, Python, and C; GEMFsim facilitates ...

  19. COURSE FEATURES EPIDEMIC PROCESS HIV INFECTION IN KHARKIV REGION

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nikolaeva LG

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Introduction. In the context of the transformation of the spheres of human living epidemic HIV-infection continues. According to the intensity of the epidemic process of HIV-infection, Ukraine takes one of the first places among the European countries. The epidemic process of the infection is concentrated mainly on the high-risk groups, and there is uneven prevalence. Besides in most cases this distribution can not be explained by the social and economic characteristics of certain territories. Kharkiv region belongs to the territory of Ukraine with the lowest prevalence level of HIV-infection. Though in terms of the social and economic crisis due to hostilities in the east of the country, which the region borders, the epidemic situation may significantly become worse. Work objective: to study the peculiarities of the course of the epidemic process of HIV-infection for the period from 1987 till 2015 in Kharkiv region that will improve the epidemiological surveillance of the infection and develop appropriate preventive measures in modern conditions. Material & methods. The studies were conducted in Kharkiv region, which is a big industrial and administrative center. The city of Kharkiv is located at the crossroads of drug trafficking from Asia and Russia. The reportings and analytics of the Kharkiv regional center for prevention and control of AIDS and the Ministry of Health of Ukraine for the period of 1987 – 2015 were used in the research. The analysis of incidence of HIV prevalence, structure of transmission routes and sex-age groups were carried out using descriptive and evaluative and analytical ways of epidemiological research method. Results & discussion. During 1987 – 2015 in Kharkiv region there were officially registered 7868 cases of HIV-infection what was equal to 4.0 % of the registered cases in Ukraine. Since 1996 a marked upward tendency of the incidence of HIV infection in Kharkiv region (growth rate – +7.0 %, and on the

  20. Global stability of an SEIR epidemic model with constant immigration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Li Guihua; Wang Wendi; Jin Zhen

    2006-01-01

    An SEIR epidemic model with the infectious force in the latent (exposed), infected and recovered period is studied. It is assumed that susceptible and exposed individuals have constant immigration rates. The model exhibits a unique endemic state if the fraction p of infectious immigrants is positive. If the basic reproduction number R is greater than 1, sufficient conditions for the global stability of the endemic equilibrium are obtained by the compound matrix theory

  1. A review of the HIV epidemic in India.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomon, Suniti; Chakraborty, Anirban; Yepthomi, Rochelle D'Souza

    2004-06-01

    India has a population of more than 1 billion people. Although only about 0.7% of its population is infected with HIV, it has more cases than any other country in the world, with more than 4.5 million HIV-seropositive patients. The epidemic of HIV/AIDS in India is distributed between the urban and rural populations mainly in the southern and western states of the country (APAC-VHS, Community Prevalence of Sexually Transmitted Diseases in Tamil Nadu-A Report, 1998; Solomon, Kumarasamy, Ganesh, & Amalraj, 1998, International Journal of Medical Research, 85; 335-338). India has several different epidemics in various parts of the country. The epidemic in the western and southern states is primarily heterosexual. The northeastern states of India, being in geographical proximity to the Golden Triangle of Asia, initially experienced HIV in the injection drug user population and their sexual partners, but spread to the heterosexual population has been increasing. At present, the northern states, which are the most densely populated, appear to remain largely unaffected by the HIV epidemic. India has mounted a broad intervention program, including the government, and international, nongovernmental, and community-based organizations. The main barriers to effective control are insufficient resources, illiteracy, and stigma. Antiretroviral drugs are manufactured in the country and exported elsewhere, but their affordability (despite a drastic reduction in costs) and the feasibility of monitoring patients on drugs are in question. Starting April 1, 2004, the government of India has announced free provision of ART drugs to all who need it in the six most prevalent states of India.

  2. Predicting epidemic outbreak from individual features of the spreaders

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Da Silva, Renato Aparecido Pimentel; Viana, Matheus Palhares; Da Fontoura Costa, Luciano

    2012-01-01

    Knowing which individuals can be more efficient in spreading a pathogen throughout a determinate environment is a fundamental question in disease control. Indeed, over recent years the spread of epidemic diseases and its relationship with the topology of the involved system have been a recurrent topic in complex network theory, taking into account both network models and real-world data. In this paper we explore possible correlations between the heterogeneous spread of an epidemic disease governed by the susceptible–infected–recovered (SIR) model, and several attributes of the originating vertices, considering Erdös–Rényi (ER), Barabási–Albert (BA) and random geometric graphs (RGG), as well as a real case study, the US air transportation network, which comprises the 500 busiest airports in the US along with inter-connections. Initially, the heterogeneity of the spreading is achieved by considering the RGG networks, in which we analytically derive an expression for the distribution of the spreading rates among the established contacts, by assuming that such rates decay exponentially with the distance that separates the individuals. Such a distribution is also considered for the ER and BA models, where we observe topological effects on the correlations. In the case of the airport network, the spreading rates are empirically defined, assumed to be directly proportional to the seat availability. Among both the theoretical and real networks considered, we observe a high correlation between the total epidemic prevalence and the degree, as well as the strength and the accessibility of the epidemic sources. For attributes such as the betweenness centrality and the k-shell index, however, the correlation depends on the topology considered. (paper)

  3. Molecular evolution and the natural history of select virus epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bruhn, Christian Anders Wathne

    Molecular evolution of pathogenic viruses with RNA based genomes is most often fast enough to leave an informative genomic sequence signal within a timeframe that is relevant for the study of both recent and on-­‐going epidemics (and epizootics). The true power of molecular evolutionary methodolo...... be termed a modern synthesis of infectious disease epidemiology. The present work can be seen as an advocate of moving towards such a completely integrative approach....

  4. Predicting Development of an Epidemics on Cultivar Mixtures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Østergård, Hanne

    1983-01-01

    A mathematical model for the development of an epidemic on a plant cultivar mixture illustrates the influence of the infection efficiency, spore production rate, proportion of deposited spores, frequency of autodeposition, and composition of the mixture on the genetic composition of the pathogen......), and finally mixing fields instead of plants. A relation was found between the long-term rate of disease increase of a pathotype and its number of virulence genes, and this relation was used for evaluating the different strategies....

  5. SIS and SIR Epidemic Models Under Virtual Dispersal.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bichara, Derdei; Kang, Yun; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos; Horan, Richard; Perrings, Charles

    2015-11-01

    We develop a multi-group epidemic framework via virtual dispersal where the risk of infection is a function of the residence time and local environmental risk. This novel approach eliminates the need to define and measure contact rates that are used in the traditional multi-group epidemic models with heterogeneous mixing. We apply this approach to a general n-patch SIS model whose basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] is computed as a function of a patch residence-time matrix [Formula: see text]. Our analysis implies that the resulting n-patch SIS model has robust dynamics when patches are strongly connected: There is a unique globally stable endemic equilibrium when [Formula: see text], while the disease-free equilibrium is globally stable when [Formula: see text]. Our further analysis indicates that the dispersal behavior described by the residence-time matrix [Formula: see text] has profound effects on the disease dynamics at the single patch level with consequences that proper dispersal behavior along with the local environmental risk can either promote or eliminate the endemic in particular patches. Our work highlights the impact of residence-time matrix if the patches are not strongly connected. Our framework can be generalized in other endemic and disease outbreak models. As an illustration, we apply our framework to a two-patch SIR single-outbreak epidemic model where the process of disease invasion is connected to the final epidemic size relationship. We also explore the impact of disease-prevalence-driven decision using a phenomenological modeling approach in order to contrast the role of constant versus state-dependent [Formula: see text] on disease dynamics.

  6. Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoghegan, Jemma L; Saavedra, Aldo F; Duchêne, Sebastián; Sullivan, Sheena; Barr, Ian; Holmes, Edward C

    2018-01-01

    The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health responses in the

  7. Preventing the Epidemic of Mental Ill Health: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Robson , Anthony ,

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Diet, lifestyle and environment do not just affect a person's health, they also determine the health of their children and possibly the health of their grandchildren. Mental ill health is an epidemic worldwide because of the combined effect of the modern diet and a sedentary lifestyle. Primary prevention of mental ill health starts, crucially, with optimal adult nutrition before the inception of pregnancy, includes breastfeeding, and continues throughout the life of th...

  8. Preventing the Epidemic of Non-Communicable Diseases: An Overview

    OpenAIRE

    Robson , Anthony ,

    2013-01-01

    International audience; Diet, lifestyle and environment do not just affect a person's health, they also determine the health of their children and possibly the health of their grandchildren. Non-communicable disease is a global epidemic because of the combined effect of the modern diet (including drug abuse) and a sedentary lifestyle. A low energy dense, drug-free diet rich in bioavailable nutrients-plus-exercise is most effective for preventing non-communicable disease throughout life. Nanoc...

  9. Epidemic Intelligence. Langmuir and the Birth of Disease Surveillance

    OpenAIRE

    Lyle Fearnley

    2010-01-01

    In the wake of the SARS and influenza epidemics of the past decade, one public health solution has become a refrain: surveillance systems for detection of disease outbreaks. This paper is an effort to understand how disease surveillance for outbreak detection gained such paramount rationality in contemporary public health. The epidemiologist Alexander Langmuir is well known as the creator of modern disease surveillance. But less well known is how he imagined disease surveillance as one part o...

  10. Continental synchronicity of human influenza virus epidemics despite climactic variation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jemma L Geoghegan

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The factors that determine the pattern and rate of spread of influenza virus at a continental-scale are uncertain. Although recent work suggests that influenza epidemics in the United States exhibit a strong geographical correlation, the spatiotemporal dynamics of influenza in Australia, a country and continent of approximately similar size and climate complexity but with a far smaller population, are not known. Using a unique combination of large-scale laboratory-confirmed influenza surveillance comprising >450,000 entries and genomic sequence data we determined the local-level spatial diffusion of this important human pathogen nationwide in Australia. We used laboratory-confirmed influenza data to characterize the spread of influenza virus across Australia during 2007-2016. The onset of established epidemics varied across seasons, with highly synchronized epidemics coinciding with the emergence of antigenically distinct viruses, particularly during the 2009 A/H1N1 pandemic. The onset of epidemics was largely synchronized between the most populous cities, even those separated by distances of >3000 km and those that experience vastly diverse climates. In addition, by analyzing global phylogeographic patterns we show that the synchronized dissemination of influenza across Australian cities involved multiple introductions from the global influenza population, coupled with strong domestic connectivity, rather than through the distinct radial patterns of geographic dispersal that are driven by work-flow transmission as observed in the United States. In addition, by comparing the spatial structure of influenza A and B, we found that these viruses tended to occupy different geographic regions, and peak in different seasons, perhaps indicative of moderate cross-protective immunity or viral interference effects. The highly synchronized outbreaks of influenza virus at a continental-scale revealed here highlight the importance of coordinated public health

  11. Temporal prediction of epidemic patterns in community networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peng, Xiao-Long; Xu, Xin-Jian; Fu, Xinchu; Small, Michael

    2013-01-01

    Most previous studies of epidemic dynamics on complex networks suppose that the disease will eventually stabilize at either a disease-free state or an endemic one. In reality, however, some epidemics always exhibit sporadic and recurrent behaviour in one region because of the invasion from an endemic population elsewhere. In this paper we address this issue and study a susceptible–infected–susceptible epidemiological model on a network consisting of two communities, where the disease is endemic in one community but alternates between outbreaks and extinctions in the other. We provide a detailed characterization of the temporal dynamics of epidemic patterns in the latter community. In particular, we investigate the time duration of both outbreak and extinction, and the time interval between two consecutive inter-community infections, as well as their frequency distributions. Based on the mean-field theory, we theoretically analyse these three timescales and their dependence on the average node degree of each community, the transmission parameters and the number of inter-community links, which are in good agreement with simulations, except when the probability of overlaps between successive outbreaks is too large. These findings aid us in better understanding the bursty nature of disease spreading in a local community, and thereby suggesting effective time-dependent control strategies. (paper)

  12. Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Haifeng; Zhang, Jie; Zhou, Changsong; Small, Michael; Wang, Binghong

    2010-02-01

    It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

  13. Dynamic Forecasting of Zika Epidemics Using Google Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Yue; Bi, Dehua; Xie, Guigang; Jin, Yuan; Huang, Yong; Lin, Baihan; An, Xiaoping; Feng, Dan; Tong, Yigang

    2017-01-01

    We developed a dynamic forecasting model for Zika virus (ZIKV), based on real-time online search data from Google Trends (GTs). It was designed to provide Zika virus disease (ZVD) surveillance and detection for Health Departments, and predictive numbers of infection cases, which would allow them sufficient time to implement interventions. In this study, we found a strong correlation between Zika-related GTs and the cumulative numbers of reported cases (confirmed, suspected and total cases; p<0.001). Then, we used the correlation data from Zika-related online search in GTs and ZIKV epidemics between 12 February and 20 October 2016 to construct an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model (0, 1, 3) for the dynamic estimation of ZIKV outbreaks. The forecasting results indicated that the predicted data by ARIMA model, which used the online search data as the external regressor to enhance the forecasting model and assist the historical epidemic data in improving the quality of the predictions, are quite similar to the actual data during ZIKV epidemic early November 2016. Integer-valued autoregression provides a useful base predictive model for ZVD cases. This is enhanced by the incorporation of GTs data, confirming the prognostic utility of search query based surveillance. This accessible and flexible dynamic forecast model could be used in the monitoring of ZVD to provide advanced warning of future ZIKV outbreaks.

  14. Obesity: from the agricultural revolution to the contemporary pediatric epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez, Keila N; Knudson, Jarrod D

    2012-01-01

    Obesity is pandemic in Western society. Currently, approximately 100 million Americans are overweight (body mass index > 25 kg/m2) or obese (body mass index > 30 kg/m2). The pandemic is largely attributable to the relatively recent (from an evolutionary perspective) adoption of a sedentary lifestyle, coupled with the high availability of foods with high caloric content in Western cultures. These factors superimposed on dated genotypes have given rise to the global obesity epidemic. Over the past two decades, the discovery of leptin and other new molecules (e.g., adiponectin, resistin, ghrelin) has shed significant light on the pathophysiologic mechanisms of obesity-related morbidities, many of which became apparent through human epidemiologic studies during the last half of the 20th century. Of high concern for modern Western societies is the pediatric obesity epidemic, which stands to cripple Western cultures, both literally and financially in terms of health care costs and exhaustion of finite medical resources. The prevalence of childhood obesity has more than tripled since the 1960s, and 12.5 million (~17%) of children and teenagers are obese in the United States today. The rate of increasing prevalence of childhood obesity is staggering, and the collective efforts of the pediatric medical community and scientists are essential for battling the epidemic. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Epidemic spreading on hierarchical geographical networks with mobile agents

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Xiao-Pu; Zhao, Zhi-Dan; Hadzibeganovic, Tarik; Wang, Bing-Hong

    2014-05-01

    Hierarchical geographical traffic networks are critical for our understanding of scaling laws in human trajectories. Here, we investigate the susceptible-infected epidemic process evolving on hierarchical networks in which agents randomly walk along the edges and establish contacts in network nodes. We employ a metapopulation modeling framework that allows us to explore the contagion spread patterns in relation to multi-scale mobility behaviors. A series of computer simulations revealed that a shifted power-law-like negative relationship between the peak timing of epidemics τ0 and population density, and a logarithmic positive relationship between τ0 and the network size, can both be explained by the gradual enlargement of fluctuations in the spreading process. We employ a semi-analytical method to better understand the nature of these relationships and the role of pertinent demographic factors. Additionally, we provide a quantitative discussion of the efficiency of a border screening procedure in delaying epidemic outbreaks on hierarchical networks, yielding a rather limited feasibility of this mitigation strategy but also its non-trivial dependence on population density, infector detectability, and the diversity of the susceptible region. Our results suggest that the interplay between the human spatial dynamics, network topology, and demographic factors can have important consequences for the global spreading and control of infectious diseases. These findings provide novel insights into the combined effects of human mobility and the organization of geographical networks on spreading processes, with important implications for both epidemiological research and health policy.

  16. Dynamics of cholera epidemics from Benin to Mauritania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Sandra; Dongdem, Anthony Zunuo; Opare, David; Cottavoz, Paul; Fookes, Maria; Sadji, Adodo Yao; Dzotsi, Emmanuel; Dogbe, Michael; Jeddi, Fakhri; Bidjada, Bawimodom; Piarroux, Martine; Valentin, Ouyi Tante; Glèlè, Clément Kakaï; Rebaudet, Stanislas; Sow, Amy Gassama; Constantin de Magny, Guillaume; Koivogui, Lamine; Dunoyer, Jessica; Bellet, Francois; Garnotel, Eric; Thomson, Nicholas; Piarroux, Renaud

    2018-04-09

    The countries of West Africa are largely portrayed as cholera endemic, although the dynamics of outbreaks in this region of Africa remain largely unclear. To understand the dynamics of cholera in a major portion of West Africa, we analyzed cholera epidemics from 2009 to 2015 from Benin to Mauritania. We conducted a series of field visits as well as multilocus variable tandem repeat analysis and whole-genome sequencing analysis of V. cholerae isolates throughout the study region. During this period, Ghana accounted for 52% of the reported cases in the entire study region (coastal countries from Benin to Mauritania). From 2009 to 2015, we found that one major wave of cholera outbreaks spread from Accra in 2011 northwestward to Sierra Leone and Guinea in 2012. Molecular epidemiology analysis confirmed that the 2011 Ghanaian isolates were related to those that seeded the 2012 epidemics in Guinea and Sierra Leone. Interestingly, we found that many countries deemed "cholera endemic" actually suffered very few outbreaks, with multi-year lulls. This study provides the first cohesive vision of the dynamics of cholera epidemics in a major portion of West Africa. This epidemiological overview shows that from 2009 to 2015, at least 54% of reported cases concerned populations living in the three urban areas of Accra, Freetown, and Conakry. These findings may serve as a guide to better target cholera prevention and control efforts in the identified cholera hotspots in West Africa.

  17. Spread of Epidemic on Complex Networks Under Voluntary Vaccination Mechanism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, Shengjun; Ruan, Feng; Yin, Chuanyang; Zhang, Haifeng; Wang, Binghong

    Under the assumption that the decision of vaccination is a voluntary behavior, in this paper, we use two forms of risk functions to characterize how susceptible individuals estimate the perceived risk of infection. One is uniform case, where each susceptible individual estimates the perceived risk of infection only based on the density of infection at each time step, so the risk function is only a function of the density of infection; another is preferential case, where each susceptible individual estimates the perceived risk of infection not only based on the density of infection but only related to its own activities/immediate neighbors (in network terminology, the activity or the number of immediate neighbors is the degree of node), so the risk function is a function of the density of infection and the degree of individuals. By investigating two different ways of estimating the risk of infection for susceptible individuals on complex network, we find that, for the preferential case, the spread of epidemic can be effectively controlled; yet, for the uniform case, voluntary vaccination mechanism is almost invalid in controlling the spread of epidemic on networks. Furthermore, given the temporality of some vaccines, the waves of epidemic for two cases are also different. Therefore, our work insight that the way of estimating the perceived risk of infection determines the decision on vaccination options, and then determines the success or failure of control strategy.

  18. Travelling Wave Solutions in Multigroup Age-Structured Epidemic Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ducrot, Arnaut; Magal, Pierre; Ruan, Shigui

    2010-01-01

    Age-structured epidemic models have been used to describe either the age of individuals or the age of infection of certain diseases and to determine how these characteristics affect the outcomes and consequences of epidemiological processes. Most results on age-structured epidemic models focus on the existence, uniqueness, and convergence to disease equilibria of solutions. In this paper we investigate the existence of travelling wave solutions in a deterministic age-structured model describing the circulation of a disease within a population of multigroups. Individuals of each group are able to move with a random walk which is modelled by the classical Fickian diffusion and are classified into two subclasses, susceptible and infective. A susceptible individual in a given group can be crisscross infected by direct contact with infective individuals of possibly any group. This process of transmission can depend upon the age of the disease of infected individuals. The goal of this paper is to provide sufficient conditions that ensure the existence of travelling wave solutions for the age-structured epidemic model. The case of two population groups is numerically investigated which applies to the crisscross transmission of feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and some sexual transmission diseases.

  19. Plague Epidemic s in Syria b etween XIII - XV. Centuries

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    Esra ATMACA

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Epidemic diseases that cause mass death has been one of the greatest fears of the society in the past century Usually due to poor living conditions, poverty, the inadequate treatment. Plague is one of them. Plague word is sometimes used synonymously with t he word tâûn, sometimes considered to be a greater sense of the Word plague. These outbreaks occured repeatedly in human society and many times occured between XIII - XV. centuries. Our research aims to examine the plague occured in Syria in the Mamluk state domination discussed period. One of the outbreaks have occured in the period between the years 1347 - 1351. Epidemic was looming at the same time with the European named the black death or large extinction. Many people have been killed in Syria as in other places where the epidemic has spread. Rumors about them are given in the source is situated in the form of the issuance of the number of people who died in one day and sometimes the total number of deaths took place at a given date range. In this study, we aimed to determine which is more severe than the others in the outbreak, to assess the rumor about the number of deaths from this cause, to reveal the difficulties of the funeral of the dead, to uncover practices that people do to get rid of this disease.

  20. Dynamics analysis of epidemic and information spreading in overlay networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Guirong; Liu, Zhimei; Jin, Zhen

    2018-05-07

    We establish an SIS-UAU model to present the dynamics of epidemic and information spreading in overlay networks. The overlay network is represented by two layers: one where the dynamics of the epidemic evolves and another where the information spreads. We theoretically derive the explicit formulas for the basic reproduction number of awareness R 0 a by analyzing the self-consistent equation and the basic reproduction number of disease R 0 d by using the next generation matrix. The formula of R 0 d shows that the effect of awareness can reduce the basic reproduction number of disease. In particular, when awareness does not affect epidemic spreading, R 0 d is shown to match the existing theoretical results. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the disease-free equilibrium is globally asymptotically stable if R 0 d 1. Finally, numerical simulations show that information plays a vital role in preventing and controlling disease and effectively reduces the final disease scale. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. QSource quality initiative. Reversing the diabetes epidemic in Tennessee.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, James E; Gibson, Deborah V; Jain, Manoj; Connelly, Stephanie A; Ryder, Kathryn M; Dagogo-Jack, Samuel

    2003-12-01

    This paper summarizes the results of a recent report on diabetes in Tennessee. Diabetes has reached epidemic proportions in Tennessee. In 2001, an estimated 7.7% of the population was diabetic, an increase from 5.8% a decade earlier. This increase is largely due to widespread unhealthy eating habits, physical inactivity, and associated obesity. The majority of diabetes is preventable and can be effectively treated through daily exercise and a healthy diet. Diabetes prevention efforts in Tennessee schools and communities, however, are grossly inadequate. Providers and payers underemphasize prevention. Since the causes of diabetes can be traced to childhood habits, early prevention is the key to reversing the diabetes epidemic. Immediate statewide action must be taken to promote daily exercise and decrease access to high-calorie, high-fat "junk" food in our schools and communities. Physicians, health professional organizations, health plans, government, churches, schools, and employers must work together to battle the diabetes epidemic through public education, community-wide health promotion programs, and efforts to improve quality of diabetes care for all Tennesseans.

  2. Martingale methods for the analysis of epidemic data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, N G

    1993-01-01

    After explaining why martingale methods play an important role in statistical inference for parameters of epidemic models, we give a tutorial introduction to these methods in the more familiar context of data on independent and identically distributed survival times. In this simpler setting we introduce requisite results from martingale theory and demonstrate that martingale methods simply lead to well known estimates and their standard errors. We then turn to the context of epidemics, and illustrate how martingale methods can be used to derive a method of inference for the infection potential in a simple model with removal of infectives. The resulting method involves only simple computations and we demonstrate that the method applies under much more general assumptions. There follows a critical review of several applications of martingale methods for the analysis of infectious disease data. It emerges that the approach provides simple methods of inference in some situations where standard methods of inference are not available, or are too cumbersome. The range of applications seems limited, but new applications continue to be found. Little has been done to confirm high efficiency of martingale methods in epidemic applications.

  3. A study of the 2006 Chikungunya epidemic outbreak in Mauritius

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    Mr. V. Pydiah

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available Chikungunya epidemic outbreaks have affected more than 1 million people in 2005-2006 in many Indian Ocean islands and in India. Mauritius experienced a major outbreak in February/March 2006 following a minor outbreak in April/May 2005. No cases have been registered on the island since August 2006. The objectives of this study were to understand the timing and development of the 2006-outbreak in Mauritius, to investigate the possibility of a future outbreak, and to propose measures to prevent the recurrence of an epidemic in Mauritius. Mauritius rainfall, temperature and humidity data were analyzed. A door-to-door household census-type survey was carried out in a study locality on the island. A compartmental human-mosquito interaction model was integrated to understand outbreak evolutions in the surveyed locality and in a theoretical locality. It was observed that the onset of the 2006-outbreak in February followed an abnormally high rainfall in the third week of January 2006. 51% of the surveyed population was found to be suspected Chikungunya cases. Computer simulations indicated that a small number of infected humans and mosquitoes existed in the surveyed locality at the outbreak onset. From simulations in the theoretical locality, it was deduced that the level of infectivity in some localities may be below a herd immunity threshold and that the additional percentage of infected inhabitants in a follow-up epidemic would be significantly reduced with the case-reactive control of infected adult mosquitoes.

  4. Hub nodes inhibit the outbreak of epidemic under voluntary vaccination

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang Haifeng; Wang Binghong; Zhang Jie; Small, Michael; Zhou Changsong

    2010-01-01

    It is commonly believed that epidemic spreading on scale-free networks is difficult to control and that the disease can spread even with a low infection rate, lacking an epidemic threshold. In this paper, we study epidemic spreading on complex networks under the framework of game theory, in which a voluntary vaccination strategy is incorporated. In particular, individuals face the 'dilemma' of vaccination: they have to decide whether or not to vaccinate according to the trade-off between the risk and the side effects or cost of vaccination. Remarkably and quite excitingly, we find that disease outbreak can be more effectively inhibited on scale-free networks than on random networks. This is because the hub nodes of scale-free networks are more inclined to take self-vaccination after balancing the pros and cons. This result is encouraging as it indicates that real-world networks, which are often claimed to be scale free, can be favorably and easily controlled under voluntary vaccination. Our work provides a way of understanding how to prevent the outbreak of diseases under voluntary vaccination, and is expected to provide valuable information on effective disease control and appropriate decision-making.

  5. Epidemic Modelling by Ripple-Spreading Network and Genetic Algorithm

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    Jian-Qin Liao

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Mathematical analysis and modelling is central to infectious disease epidemiology. This paper, inspired by the natural ripple-spreading phenomenon, proposes a novel ripple-spreading network model for the study of infectious disease transmission. The new epidemic model naturally has good potential for capturing many spatial and temporal features observed in the outbreak of plagues. In particular, using a stochastic ripple-spreading process simulates the effect of random contacts and movements of individuals on the probability of infection well, which is usually a challenging issue in epidemic modeling. Some ripple-spreading related parameters such as threshold and amplifying factor of nodes are ideal to describe the importance of individuals’ physical fitness and immunity. The new model is rich in parameters to incorporate many real factors such as public health service and policies, and it is highly flexible to modifications. A genetic algorithm is used to tune the parameters of the model by referring to historic data of an epidemic. The well-tuned model can then be used for analyzing and forecasting purposes. The effectiveness of the proposed method is illustrated by simulation results.

  6. The evolutionary rate dynamically tracks changes in HIV-1 epidemics

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Maljkovic-berry, Irina [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Athreya, Gayathri [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Daniels, Marcus [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bruno, William [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Korber, Bette [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Kuiken, Carla [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Ribeiro, Ruy M [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2009-01-01

    Large-sequence datasets provide an opportunity to investigate the dynamics of pathogen epidemics. Thus, a fast method to estimate the evolutionary rate from large and numerous phylogenetic trees becomes necessary. Based on minimizing tip height variances, we optimize the root in a given phylogenetic tree to estimate the most homogenous evolutionary rate between samples from at least two different time points. Simulations showed that the method had no bias in the estimation of evolutionary rates and that it was robust to tree rooting and topological errors. We show that the evolutionary rates of HIV-1 subtype B and C epidemics have changed over time, with the rate of evolution inversely correlated to the rate of virus spread. For subtype B, the evolutionary rate slowed down and tracked the start of the HAART era in 1996. Subtype C in Ethiopia showed an increase in the evolutionary rate when the prevalence increase markedly slowed down in 1995. Thus, we show that the evolutionary rate of HIV-1 on the population level dynamically tracks epidemic events.

  7. An Epidemiological Analysis of Summer Influenza Epidemics in Okinawa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sunagawa, Satoko; Iha, Yoshikazu; Taira, Katsuya; Okano, Sho; Kinjo, Takeshi; Higa, Futoshi; Kuba, Kazufumi; Tateyama, Masao; Nakamura, Katsunori; Nakamura, Shota; Motooka, Daisuke; Horii, Toshihiro; Parrott, Gretchen L; Fujita, Jiro

    Objective This study evaluates the difference between winter influenza and summer influenza in Okinawa. Methods From January 2007 to June 2014, weekly rapid antigen test (RAT) results performed in four acute care hospitals were collected for the surveillance of regional influenza prevalence in the Naha region of the Okinawa Islands. Results An antigenic data analysis revealed that multiple H1N1 and H3N2 viruses consistently co-circulate in Okinawa, creating synchronized seasonal patterns and a high genetic diversity of influenza A. Additionally, influenza B viruses play a significant role in summer epidemics, almost every year. To further understand influenza epidemics during the summer in Okinawa, we evaluated the full genome sequences of some representative human influenza A and influenza B viruses isolated in Okinawa. Phylogenetic data analysis also revealed that multiple H1N1 and H3N2 viruses consistently co-circulate in Okinawa. Conclusion This surveillance revealed a distinct epidemic pattern of seasonal and pandemic influenza in this subtropical region.

  8. Large epidemic thresholds emerge in heterogeneous networks of heterogeneous nodes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Hui; Tang, Ming; Gross, Thilo

    2015-08-01

    One of the famous results of network science states that networks with heterogeneous connectivity are more susceptible to epidemic spreading than their more homogeneous counterparts. In particular, in networks of identical nodes it has been shown that network heterogeneity, i.e. a broad degree distribution, can lower the epidemic threshold at which epidemics can invade the system. Network heterogeneity can thus allow diseases with lower transmission probabilities to persist and spread. However, it has been pointed out that networks in which the properties of nodes are intrinsically heterogeneous can be very resilient to disease spreading. Heterogeneity in structure can enhance or diminish the resilience of networks with heterogeneous nodes, depending on the correlations between the topological and intrinsic properties. Here, we consider a plausible scenario where people have intrinsic differences in susceptibility and adapt their social network structure to the presence of the disease. We show that the resilience of networks with heterogeneous connectivity can surpass those of networks with homogeneous connectivity. For epidemiology, this implies that network heterogeneity should not be studied in isolation, it is instead the heterogeneity of infection risk that determines the likelihood of outbreaks.

  9. Distinguishing epidemic waves from disease spillover in a wildlife population.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craft, Meggan E; Volz, Erik; Packer, Craig; Meyers, Lauren Ancel

    2009-05-22

    Serengeti lions frequently experience viral outbreaks. In 1994, one-third of Serengeti lions died from canine distemper virus (CDV). Based on the limited epidemiological data available from this period, it has been unclear whether the 1994 outbreak was propagated by lion-to-lion transmission alone or involved multiple introductions from other sympatric carnivore species. More broadly, we do not know whether contacts between lions allow any pathogen with a relatively short infectious period to percolate through the population (i.e. reach epidemic proportions). We built one of the most realistic contact network models for a wildlife population to date, based on detailed behavioural and movement data from a long-term lion study population. The model allowed us to identify previously unrecognized biases in the sparse data from the 1994 outbreak and develop methods for judiciously inferring disease dynamics from typical wildlife samples. Our analysis of the model in light of the 1994 outbreak data strongly suggest that, although lions are sufficiently well connected to sustain epidemics of CDV-like diseases, the 1994 epidemic was fuelled by multiple spillovers from other carnivore species, such as jackals and hyenas.

  10. Leveraging social networks for understanding the evolution of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martín Gonzalo

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To understand how infectious agents disseminate throughout a population it is essential to capture the social model in a realistic manner. This paper presents a novel approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus throughout a realistic interconnection network based on actual individual interactions which we extract from online social networks. The advantage is that these networks can be extracted from existing sources which faithfully record interactions between people in their natural environment. We additionally allow modeling the characteristics of each individual as well as customizing his daily interaction patterns by making them time-dependent. Our purpose is to understand how the infection spreads depending on the structure of the contact network and the individuals who introduce the infection in the population. This would help public health authorities to respond more efficiently to epidemics. Results We implement a scalable, fully distributed simulator and validate the epidemic model by comparing the simulation results against the data in the 2004-2005 New York State Department of Health Report (NYSDOH, with similar temporal distribution results for the number of infected individuals. We analyze the impact of different types of connection models on the virus propagation. Lastly, we analyze and compare the effects of adopting several different vaccination policies, some of them based on individual characteristics -such as age- while others targeting the super-connectors in the social model. Conclusions This paper presents an approach to modeling the propagation of the influenza virus via a realistic social model based on actual individual interactions extracted from online social networks. We implemented a scalable, fully distributed simulator and we analyzed both the dissemination of the infection and the effect of different vaccination policies on the progress of the epidemics. The epidemic values

  11. A measles epidemic threshold in a highly vaccinated population.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Mass vaccination against measles has successfully lowered the incidence of the disease and has changed the epidemic pattern from a roughly biennial cycle to an irregular sequence of outbreaks. A possible explanation for this sequence of outbreaks is that the vaccinated population is protected by solid herd immunity. If so, we would expect to see the fraction of susceptible individuals remaining below an epidemic threshold. An alternative explanation is the occurrence of occasional localised lapses in herd immunity that allow for major outbreaks in areas with a low vaccine coverage. In that case, we would expect the fraction of susceptible individuals to exceed an epidemic threshold before outbreaks occur. These two explanations for the irregular sequence of measles outbreaks can be tested against observations of both the fraction of susceptible individuals and infection attack rates. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We have estimated both the fraction of susceptible individuals at the start of each epidemic year and the infection attack rates for each epidemic year in the Netherlands over a 28-y period. During this period the vaccine coverage averaged 93%, and there was no sustained measles transmission. Several measles outbreaks occurred in communities with low vaccine coverage, and these ended without intervention. We show that there is a clear threshold value for the fraction of susceptible individuals, below which only minor outbreaks occurred, and above which both minor and major outbreaks occurred. A precise, quantitative relationship exists between the fraction of susceptible individuals in excess of this threshold and the infection attack rate during the major outbreaks. CONCLUSION: In populations with a high but heterogeneous vaccine coverage, measles transmission can be interrupted without establishing solid herd immunity. When infection is reintroduced, a major outbreak can occur in the communities with low vaccine coverage. During

  12. El Nino-southern Oscillation and Lathyrism Epidemics

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    Olusegun Steven Ayodele Oluwole

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Epidemics of lathyrism, a neurological syndrome of spastic paraparesis, have occurredduring severe droughts in Europe, Asia, and Africa for millenia. Causation is linked toexposure to β-N-oxalyl-L-α,β-diaminopropionic acid (β-L-ODAP, a neurotoxin in Lathyrussativus. Lathyrism shares neurological features with konzo, a syndrome of predominantlyspastic paraparesis which occurs during droughts in East and Central Africa and is linked to El Nino activity. This study was done to determine the relationship of lathyrism epidemics to phases of El Nino-southern oscillation (ENSO and Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO, and to propose a model to explain why the geospatial distributions of lathyrism and konzo are non-overlapping. Contingency table of phases of ENSO and occurrence of lathyrism epidemics in Central Provinces, India from 1833–1902 was created and odds ratio was calculated. Wavelet spectra of time series of annual occurrence of lathyrism in Rewah district, India, and its coherence with ENSO and PDO from 1894–1920 were performed. Lathyrism epidemic was associated with El Nino phase of ENSO, odds ratio 378 (95 % 32–4475. Global spectra showed peaks at periodicity of 2.5 and 4.6 years for lathyrism; 2.7 and 5.0 years for PDO; and 2.5, 4.6, 7.0 years for ENSO. Spectrograms showed time-varying periodicities of 2.5–3.5 and 4.5–5.5 years for lathyrism; 2.0–3.0 and 6.5–9.0 years for ENSO; and 3.5 and 5.0 years for PDO, p < 0.0001. Spectral coherence were at 2.0–3.5 and 4.5–5.0 years for ENSO and lathyrism p < 0.0001, and 5.0 years for PDO and lathyrism p < 0.05. The droughts of El Ninos initiate dependence on Lathyrus sativus, which exposes the population to neurotoxic β-L-ODAP. Public health control of lathyrism epidemics should include development of models to forecast El Ninos and initiate food programmes in susceptible areas.

  13. Journal of Special Operations Medicine. Volume 5, Edition 4, Fall 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    of lakes, slow moving streams, and irrigation ditches in Africa, South America, and Southeast Asia .66 Disease ranges from an acute illness (Katayama...sleeping sickness • Plague, murine typhus • Scrub typhus • Chagas ’ disease • Trench fever, relapsing fever, epidemic typhus • Wear the...infectious disease processes, and/or environment and wilderness medicine. More than anything, we need you to write CME articles. Help keep each other

  14. Virulence variation among epidemic and non-epidemic strains of Saint Louis encephalitis virus circulating in Argentina

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    María Elisa Rivarola

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Saint Louis encephalitis virus caused an outbreak of febrile illness and encephalitis cases in Córdoba, Argentina, in 2005. During this outbreak, the strain CbaAr-4005 was isolated from Culex quinquefasciatus mosquitoes. We hypothesised that this epidemic variant would be more virulent in a mouse model than two other non-epidemic strains (78V-6507 and CorAn-9275 isolated under different epidemiological conditions. To test this hypothesis, we performed a biological characterisation in a murine model, including mortality, morbidity and infection percentages and lethal infection indices using the three strains. Mice were separated into age groups (7, 10 and 21-day-old mice and analysed after infection. The strain CbaAr-4005 was the most infective and lethal of the three variants, whereas the other two strains exhibited a decreasing mortality percentage with increasing animal age. The strain CbaAr-4005 produced the highest morbidity percentages and no significant differences among age groups were observed. The epidemic strain caused signs of illness in all inoculated animals and showed narrower ranges from the onset of symptoms than the other strains. CbaAr-4005 was the most virulent for Swiss albino mice. Our results highlight the importance of performing biological characterisations of arbovirus strains likely to be responsible for emerging or reemerging human diseases.

  15. An improved technique for isolation of environmental Vibrio cholerae with epidemic potential: monitoring the emergence of a multiple-antibiotic-resistant epidemic strain in Bangladesh.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faruque, Shah M; Islam, M Johirul; Ahmad, Qazi Shafi; Biswas, Kuntal; Faruque, A S G; Nair, G Balakrish; Sack, R Bradley; Sack, David A; Mekalanos, John J

    2006-04-01

    Predicting cholera epidemics through monitoring the environment for the presence of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae is complicated by the presence in water of a large number of mostly nonpathogenic V. cholerae strains. V. cholerae strains causing recent cholera epidemics in Bangladesh carry the sulfamethoxazole-trimethoprim (SXT) element, which encodes resistance to several antibiotics. Here, we show that the use of a culture medium containing streptomycin, sulfamethoxazole, and trimethoprim (the antibiotic selection technique [AST]) can significantly enhance the isolation of environmental V. cholerae O1 with epidemic potential (Pantibiotic-resistant strain of V. cholerae in Bangladesh. The results of this study support the hypothesis that pre-epidemic amplification of pathogenic V. cholerae occurs in the human host and leads to the start of an epidemic cycle dominated by a single clone of V. cholerae that spreads rapidly through environmental waters.

  16. Lessons learned during active epidemiological surveillance of Ebola and Marburg viral hemorrhagic fever epidemics in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allaranga, Yokouide; Kone, Mamadou Lamine; Formenty, Pierre; Libama, Francois; Boumandouki, Paul; Woodfill, Celia J I; Sow, Idrissa; Duale, Sambe; Alemu, Wondimagegnehu; Yada, Adamou

    2010-03-01

    To review epidemiological surveillance approaches used during Ebola and Marburg hemorrhagic fever epidemics in Africa in the past fifteen years. Overall, 26 hemorrhagic epidemic outbreaks have been registered in 12 countries; 18 caused by the Ebola virus and eight by the Marburg virus. About 2551 cases have been reported, among which 268 were health workers (9,3%). Based on articles and epidemic management reports, this review analyses surveillance approaches, route of introduction of the virus into the population (urban and rural), the collaboration between the human health sector and the wildlife sector and factors that have affected epidemic management. Several factors affecting the epidemiological surveillance during Ebola and Marburg viruses hemorrhagic epidemics have been observed. During epidemics in rural settings, outbreak investigations have shown multiple introductions of the virus into the human population through wildlife. In contrast, during epidemics in urban settings a single introduction of the virus in the community was responsible for the epidemic. Active surveillance is key to containing outbreaks of Ebola and Marburg viruses Collaboration with those in charge of the conservation of wildlife is essential for the early detection of viral hemorrhagic fever epidemics. Hemorrhagic fever epidemics caused by Ebola and Marburg viruses are occurring more and more frequently in Sub-Saharan Africa and only an adapted epidemiological surveillance system will allow for early detection and effective response.

  17. FluBreaks: early epidemic detection from Google flu trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pervaiz, Fahad; Pervaiz, Mansoor; Abdur Rehman, Nabeel; Saif, Umar

    2012-10-04

    The Google Flu Trends service was launched in 2008 to track changes in the volume of online search queries related to flu-like symptoms. Over the last few years, the trend data produced by this service has shown a consistent relationship with the actual number of flu reports collected by the US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), often identifying increases in flu cases weeks in advance of CDC records. However, contrary to popular belief, Google Flu Trends is not an early epidemic detection system. Instead, it is designed as a baseline indicator of the trend, or changes, in the number of disease cases. To evaluate whether these trends can be used as a basis for an early warning system for epidemics. We present the first detailed algorithmic analysis of how Google Flu Trends can be used as a basis for building a fully automated system for early warning of epidemics in advance of methods used by the CDC. Based on our work, we present a novel early epidemic detection system, called FluBreaks (dritte.org/flubreaks), based on Google Flu Trends data. We compared the accuracy and practicality of three types of algorithms: normal distribution algorithms, Poisson distribution algorithms, and negative binomial distribution algorithms. We explored the relative merits of these methods, and related our findings to changes in Internet penetration and population size for the regions in Google Flu Trends providing data. Across our performance metrics of percentage true-positives (RTP), percentage false-positives (RFP), percentage overlap (OT), and percentage early alarms (EA), Poisson- and negative binomial-based algorithms performed better in all except RFP. Poisson-based algorithms had average values of 99%, 28%, 71%, and 76% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively, whereas negative binomial-based algorithms had average values of 97.8%, 17.8%, 60%, and 55% for RTP, RFP, OT, and EA, respectively. Moreover, the EA was also affected by the region's population size

  18. The Characteristics of TB Epidemic and TB/HIV Co-Infection Epidemic: A 2007-2013 Retrospective Study in Urumqi, Xinjiang Province, China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Wei

    Full Text Available This study was aimed to find out epidemiologic characteristic of tuberculosis (TB cases, and Human Immunodeficiency Virus (HIV positive cases among TB patients (TB/HIV co-infection through demographic, temporal, and spatial study in Urumqi.Descriptive statistics and multivariate logistic regression were applied to identify the epidemiologic characteristics and risk factors of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic. All addresses of each TB case, TB/HIV co-infection case, and administrative street were transformed into geographical coordinate. Subsequently, the geocoded address for 82 streets was transformed into a dot map used as the basis of spatial datasets. In addition, the paper also used quantile map and the spatial scan statistic in order to identify the spatial distribution and spatial clusters of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic.There was a declining trend of the notification rates of TB epidemic from 2007 to 2009, as well as a rising trend from 2010 to 2013. However, the notification rates of TB/HIV co-infection epidemic showed a rising trend from 2007 to 2010, and a declining trend from 2011 to 2013. Moreover, a significant share of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic happened between the age of 15 to 45 years old, indicating an increase in risk of TB and TB/HIV infection. It is worth noting that the risk of HIV infection for male TB patients was 2.947 times (95% CI [2.178, 3.988] than that of female patients. Han ethnicity and Uygur ethnicity in urban region accounted for a large proportion of total TB and TB/HIV co-infection cases. Most of the TB cases of minorities in Urumqi showed a statistically significant increase in risk of HIV infection than Han ethnicity in Urumqi. In addition, the spatial distribution of TB epidemic and TB/HIV co-infection epidemic was highly skewed. Most of the local clusters were located in urban area and rural-urban continuum where showed an increase in risk of TB and TB

  19. The social construction of the breast cancer epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lantz, P M; Booth, K M

    1998-04-01

    The age-adjusted incidence of breast cancer among U.S. women rose by over 30% during the 1980s. Several population-based studies have concluded that most or all of this observed increase is an artifact of the lead time afforded by mammography screening rather than an indication of a true increase in the rate at which women develop the disease. We conducted a study of the social construction of breast cancer trends as a public health problem in popular U.S. magazines. We documented trends in popular magazine article coverage of breast cancer between 1980 and 1995. In addition, we analyzed the content of a convenience sample of 228 popular magazine articles published between 1987 and 1995, focusing on a subsample of articles (n = 91) that mention the increase in breast cancer incidence. Our results show that the increase in incidence is commonly portrayed as a mysterious, unexplained epidemic occurring primarily among young, professional women in their prime years. Many articles suggest that recent changes in women's behavior such as increases in delayed childbearing, nulliparity, the use of oral contraceptives, induced abortion, and the use of tobacco and alcohol are related to the recent upsurge in the disease. The portrayal of the breast cancer epidemic in the U.S. popular press reflects a strong social desire to create order and control over a frightening disease. In the process, a common message is that the behaviors and choices of young, nontraditional women especially those related to fertility control-have led to pathological repercussions within their bodies, which in turn may be responsible for great disorder and pathology at the societal level in the epidemic of breast cancer.

  20. In search for factors that drive hantavirus epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paul eHeyman

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available In Europe, hantaviruses (Bunyaviridae are small mammal-associated zoonotic and emerging pathogens that can cause hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome (HFRS. Puumala virus, the main etiological agent carried by the bank vole Myodes glareolus is responsible for a mild form of HFRS while Dobrava virus induces less frequent but more severe cases of HFRS.Since 2000 in Europe, more than 3000 cases of HFRS have been recorded, in average, each year, which is nearly double compared to the previous decade. In addition to this upside long-term trend, significant oscillations occur. Epidemic years appear, usually every 2-4 years, with an increased incidence, generally in localised hot spots. Moreover, the virus has been identified in new areas in the recent years.A great number of surveys have been carried out in order to assess the prevalence of the infection in the reservoir host and to identify links with different biotic and abiotic factors. The factors that drive the infections are related to the density and diversity of bank vole populations, prevalence of infection in the reservoir host, viral excretion in the environment, survival of the virus outside its host, and human behaviour, which affect the main transmission virus route through inhalation of infected rodent excreta..At the scale of a rodent population, the prevalence of the infection increases with the age of the individuals but also other parameters, such as sex and genetic variability, interfere. The contamination of the environment may be correlated to the number of newly infected rodents, which heavily excrete the virus. The interactions between these different parameters add to the complexity of the situation and explain the absence of reliable tools to predict epidemics. In this review, the factors that drive the epidemics of hantaviruses in Middle Europe are discussed through a panorama of the epidemiological situation in Belgium, France and Germany.

  1. Integrating Remote Sensing and Disease Surveillance to Forecast Malaria Epidemics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Beyane, B.; DeVos, M.; Liu, Y.; Merkord, C. L.; Mihretie, A.

    2015-12-01

    Advance information about the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. Early detection methods can detect incipient outbreaks by identifying deviations from expected seasonal patterns, whereas early warning approaches typically forecast future malaria risk based on lagged responses to meteorological factors. A critical limiting factor for implementing either of these approaches is the need for timely and consistent acquisition, processing and analysis of both environmental and epidemiological data. To address this need, we have developed EPIDEMIA - an integrated system for surveillance and forecasting of malaria epidemics. The EPIDEMIA system includes a public health interface for uploading and querying weekly surveillance reports as well as algorithms for automatically validating incoming data and updating the epidemiological surveillance database. The newly released EASTWeb 2.0 software application automatically downloads, processes, and summaries remotely-sensed environmental data from multiple earth science data archives. EASTWeb was implemented as a component of the EPIDEMIA system, which combines the environmental monitoring data and epidemiological surveillance data into a unified database that supports both early detection and early warning models. Dynamic linear models implemented with Kalman filtering were used to carry out forecasting and model updating. Preliminary forecasts have been disseminated to public health partners in the Amhara Region of Ethiopia and will be validated and refined as the EPIDEMIA system ingests new data. In addition to continued model development and testing, future work will involve updating the public health interface to provide a broader suite of outbreak alerts and data visualization tools that are useful to our public health partners. The EPIDEMIA system demonstrates a feasible approach to synthesizing the information from epidemiological

  2. Homo-psychologicus: Reactionary behavioural aspects of epidemics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alhaji Cherif

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available We formulate an in silico model of pathogen avoidance mechanism and investigate its impact on defensive behavioural measures (e.g., spontaneous social exclusions and distancing, crowd avoidance and voluntary vaccination adaptation. In particular, we use SIR(BS (e.g., susceptible-infected-recovered with additional behavioural component model to investigate the impact of homo-psychologicus aspects of epidemics. We focus on reactionary behavioural changes, which apply to both social distancing and voluntary vaccination participations. Our analyses reveal complex relationships between spontaneous and uncoordinated behavioural changes, the emergence of its contagion properties, and mitigation of infectious diseases. We find that the presence of effective behavioural changes can impede the persistence of disease. Furthermore, it was found that under perfect effective behavioural change, there are three regions in the response factor (e.g., imitation and/or reactionary and behavioural scale factor (e.g., global/local factors ρ–α behavioural space. Mainly, (1 disease is always endemic even in the presence of behavioural change, (2 behavioural-prevalence plasticity is observed and disease can sometimes be eradication, and (3 elimination of endemic disease under permanence of permanent behavioural change is achieved. These results suggest that preventive behavioural changes (e.g., non-pharmaceutical prophylactic measures, social distancing and exclusion, crowd avoidance are influenced by individual differences in perception of risks and are a salient feature of epidemics. Additionally, these findings indicates that care needs to be taken when considering the effect of adaptive behavioural change in predicting the course of epidemics, and as well as the interpretation and development of the public health measures that account for spontaneous behavioural changes.

  3. Virus genomes reveal factors that spread and sustained the Ebola epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudas, Gytis; Carvalho, Luiz Max; Bedford, Trevor; Tatem, Andrew J.; Baele, Guy; Faria, Nuno R.; Park, Daniel J.; Ladner, Jason T.; Arias, Armando; Asogun, Danny; Bielejec, Filip; Caddy, Sarah L.; Cotten, Matthew; D’Ambrozio, Jonathan; Dellicour, Simon; Di Caro, Antonino; Diclaro, JosephW.; Duraffour, Sophie; Elmore, Michael J.; Fakoli, Lawrence S.; Faye, Ousmane; Gilbert, Merle L.; Gevao, Sahr M.; Gire, Stephen; Gladden-Young, Adrianne; Gnirke, Andreas; Goba, Augustine; Grant, Donald S.; Haagmans, Bart L.; Hiscox, Julian A.; Jah, Umaru; Kargbo, Brima; Kugelman, Jeffrey R.; Liu, Di; Lu, Jia; Malboeuf, Christine M.; Mate, Suzanne; Matthews, David A.; Matranga, Christian B.; Meredith, Luke W.; Qu, James; Quick, Joshua; Pas, Suzan D.; Phan, My VT; Pollakis, Georgios; Reusken, Chantal B.; Sanchez-Lockhart, Mariano; Schaffner, Stephen F.; Schieffelin, John S.; Sealfon, Rachel S.; Simon-Loriere, Etienne; Smits, Saskia L.; Stoecker, Kilian; Thorne, Lucy; Tobin, Ekaete Alice; Vandi, Mohamed A.; Watson, Simon J.; West, Kendra; Whitmer, Shannon; Wiley, Michael R.; Winnicki, Sarah M.; Wohl, Shirlee; Wölfel, Roman; Yozwiak, Nathan L.; Andersen, Kristian G.; Blyden, Sylvia O.; Bolay, Fatorma; Carroll, MilesW.; Dahn, Bernice; Diallo, Boubacar; Formenty, Pierre; Fraser, Christophe; Gao, George F.; Garry, Robert F.; Goodfellow, Ian; Günther, Stephan; Happi, Christian T.; Holmes, Edward C.; Kargbo, Brima; Keïta, Sakoba; Kellam, Paul; Koopmans, Marion P. G.; Kuhn, Jens H.; Loman, Nicholas J.; Magassouba, N’Faly; Naidoo, Dhamari; Nichol, Stuart T.; Nyenswah, Tolbert; Palacios, Gustavo; Pybus, Oliver G.; Sabeti, Pardis C.; Sall, Amadou; Ströher, Ute; Wurie, Isatta; Suchard, Marc A.; Lemey, Philippe; Rambaut, Andrew

    2017-01-01

    The 2013–2016 epidemic of Ebola virus disease was of unprecedented magnitude, duration and impact. Analysing 1610 Ebola virus genomes, representing over 5% of known cases, we reconstruct the dispersal, proliferation and decline of Ebola virus throughout the region. We test the association of geography, climate and demography with viral movement among administrative regions, inferring a classic ‘gravity’ model, with intense dispersal between larger and closer populations. Despite attenuation of international dispersal after border closures, cross-border transmission had already set the seeds for an international epidemic, rendering these measures ineffective in curbing the epidemic. We address why the epidemic did not spread into neighbouring countries, showing they were susceptible to significant outbreaks but at lower risk of introductions. Finally, we reveal this large epidemic to be a heterogeneous and spatially dissociated collection of transmission clusters of varying size, duration and connectivity. These insights will help inform interventions in future epidemics. PMID:28405027

  4. Phylogeography and Molecular Epidemiology of an Epidemic Strain of Dengue Virus Type 1 in Sri Lanka

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ocwieja, Karen E.; Fernando, Anira N.; Sherrill-Mix, Scott; Sundararaman, Sesh A.; Tennekoon, Rashika N.; Tippalagama, Rashmi; Krishnananthasivam, Shivankari; Premawansa, Gayani; Premawansa, Sunil; De Silva, Aruna Dharshan

    2014-01-01

    In 2009, a severe epidemic of dengue disease occurred in Sri Lanka, with higher mortality and morbidity than any previously recorded epidemic in the country. It corresponded to a shift to dengue virus 1 as the major disease-causing serotype in Sri Lanka. Dengue disease reached epidemic levels in the next 3 years. We report phylogenetic evidence that the 2009 epidemic DENV-1 strain continued to circulate within the population and caused severe disease in the epidemic of 2012. Bayesian phylogeographic analyses suggest that the 2009 Sri Lankan epidemic DENV-1 strain may have traveled directly or indirectly from Thailand through China to Sri Lanka, and after spreading within the Sri Lankan population, it traveled to Pakistan and Singapore. Our findings delineate the dissemination route of a virulent DENV-1 strain in Asia. Understanding such routes will be of particular importance to global control efforts. PMID:24799375

  5. Epidemic characteristics of two classic SIS models with disease-induced death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fengqin; Li, Jianquan; Li, Jia

    2017-07-07

    The epidemic characteristics of two classic SIS epidemic models, including the epidemic size, peak and turning point, are investigated. The two SIS models are with bilinear and standard incidences, respectively. For the SIS models, the susceptible individuals generally can be divided into two classes. One consists of the individuals who had not been infected by the infection, the other are individuals who have been infected and recovered from the infection. Based on this fact, the classic SIS epidemic models need to be reformulated in order to analyze the turning points of the epidemic for various cumulative cases in detail. The obtained results illustrate how to determine the epidemic characteristics of the two models, and demonstrate their dependence on the initial conditions and the relative parameters of the models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Local Stability Analysis of an SVIR Epidemic Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joko Harianto

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present an SVIR epidemic model with deadly deseases. Initially the basic formulation of the model is presented. Two equilibrium point exists for the system; disease free and endemic equilibrium. The local stability of the disease free and endemic equilibrium exists when the basic reproduction number less or greater than unity, respectively. If the value of R0 less than one then the desease free equilibrium is locally stable, and if its exceeds, the endemic equilibrium is locally stable. The numerical results are presented for illustration.

  7. Social sciences and humanities contribution to tackle the obesity epidemic

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holm, Lotte; Sandøe, Peter; Nielsen, Morten Ebbe Juul

    To address the obesity epidemic, European researchers need to come together to find the best solutions and use their combined knowledge to provide the most innovative research ideas. By gathering more than 50 researchers and stakeholders from around Europe, we took an important step towards...... establishing strong networks and building bridges between the natural sciences and social sciences and humanities that can address obesity as a complex societal challenge and help minimise the gap between research, markets, and citizens. The objectives of the workshop were to create a cross‐European forum...

  8. Taki Onqoy: Mercury poisoning epidemic in 16th century Huamanga

    OpenAIRE

    Santa María, Luis Alberto; Instituto Nacional de Salud. Lima, Perú. Universidad Nacional Mayor de San Marcos. Lima, Perú. Médico cirujano, doctor en Salud Publica

    2017-01-01

    Taki Onqoy is a syndrome that corresponds to the poisoning from exposure to mercury. It appeared as a result of the exploitation of the mercury mines of Paras and Huancavelica in Peru during the 16th century. The Cachexia mercurial, the last stage of the disease, would be associated with the idea of pishtaco. The Taki Onqoy in 16th-century Peru represents the largest epidemic of mercury poisoning known to humanity. Taki Onqoy es un síndrome que corresponde a la intoxicación por exposición ...

  9. The effect of heterogeneity on invasion in spatial epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Neri, Franco M; Bates, Anne; Füchtbauer, Winnie Sophie

    2011-01-01

    Heterogeneity in host populations is an important factor affecting the ability of a pathogen to invade, yet the quantitative investigation of its effects on epidemic spread is still an open problem. In this paper, we test recent theoretical results, which extend the established “percolation...... Bayesian inference methods, estimating pathogen transmission parameters for each individual population. We find a significant, negative correlation between heterogeneity and the probability of pathogen invasion, thereby validating the theory. The value of the correlation is also in remarkably good...

  10. Deriving a model for influenza epidemics from historical data.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Lefantzi, Sophia

    2011-09-01

    In this report we describe how we create a model for influenza epidemics from historical data collected from both civilian and military societies. We derive the model when the population of the society is unknown but the size of the epidemic is known. Our interest lies in estimating a time-dependent infection rate to within a multiplicative constant. The model form fitted is chosen for its similarity to published models for HIV and plague, enabling application of Bayesian techniques to discriminate among infectious agents during an emerging epidemic. We have developed models for the progression of influenza in human populations. The model is framed as a integral, and predicts the number of people who exhibit symptoms and seek care over a given time-period. The start and end of the time period form the limits of integration. The disease progression model, in turn, contains parameterized models for the incubation period and a time-dependent infection rate. The incubation period model is obtained from literature, and the parameters of the infection rate are fitted from historical data including both military and civilian populations. The calibrated infection rate models display a marked difference in which the 1918 Spanish Influenza pandemic differed from the influenza seasons in the US between 2001-2008 and the progression of H1N1 in Catalunya, Spain. The data for the 1918 pandemic was obtained from military populations, while the rest are country-wide or province-wide data from the twenty-first century. We see that the initial growth of infection in all cases were about the same; however, military populations were able to control the epidemic much faster i.e., the decay of the infection-rate curve is much higher. It is not clear whether this was because of the much higher level of organization present in a military society or the seriousness with which the 1918 pandemic was addressed. Each outbreak to which the influenza model was fitted yields a separate set of

  11. Statistical techniques for the characterization of partially observed epidemics.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Safta, Cosmin; Ray, Jaideep; Crary, David (Applied Research Associates, Inc, Arlington, VA); Cheng, Karen (Applied Research Associates, Inc, Arlington, VA)

    2010-11-01

    Techniques appear promising to construct and integrate automated detect-and-characterize technique for epidemics - Working off biosurveillance data, and provides information on the particular/ongoing outbreak. Potential use - in crisis management and planning, resource allocation - Parameter estimation capability ideal for providing the input parameters into an agent-based model, Index Cases, Time of Infection, infection rate. Non-communicable diseases are easier than communicable ones - Small anthrax can be characterized well with 7-10 days of data, post-detection; plague takes longer, Large attacks are very easy.

  12. Inactivation of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus using heated water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michele M. Zentkovich

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV is a very contagious swine pathogen that spreads easily via the fecal-oral route, notably from contaminated fomites. The present study investigated heated water as a method for rapid thermal inactivation of PEDV. Cell-culture adapted PEDV was treated with water at varying temperatures and viral titers were measured at multiple time points post-treatment. Viable PEDV was not recovered after a ten second or longer treatment with water heated to ≥76 °C; however, PEDV nucleic acid was detected in all samples regardless of treatment. Hot water decontamination could be considered in settings where chemical disinfection is impractical.

  13. Effects of stochastic perturbation on the SIS epidemic system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lahrouz, Aadil; Settati, Adel; Akharif, Abdelhadi

    2017-01-01

    In this paper we extend the classical SIS epidemic model from a deterministic framework to a stochastic one. We also study the long time behavior of the stochastic system. We mainly establish conditions for the extinction of disease from the population as well as the persistence of disease under different conditions. In the case of persistence, we show the existence of a stationary distribution. we found that the introduction of stochastic noise changes the basic reproduction number. The presented results are demonstrated by numerical simulations.

  14. SIS epidemic spreading with correlated heterogeneous infection rates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qu, Bo; Wang, Huiijuan

    2017-04-01

    The epidemic spreading has been widely studied in homogeneous cases, where each node may get infected by an infected neighbor with the same rate. However, the infection rate between a pair of nodes, which may depend on e.g. their interaction frequency, is usually heterogeneous and even correlated with their nodal degrees in the contact network. In this paper, we aim to understand how such correlated heterogeneous infection rates influence the epidemic spreading on different network topologies. Motivated by real-world datasets, we propose a Correlated heterogeneous Susceptible-Infected-Susceptible (CSIS) model which assumes that the infection rate βij(=βji) between node i and j is correlated with the degree of the two end nodes: βij = c(didj) α, where α indicates the strength of the correlation between the infection rates and nodal degrees, and c is selected so that the average infection rate is 1 in this work. The recovery rate is the same for all the nodes. In order to understand the effect of such correlation on epidemic spreading, we consider as well the corresponding uncorrected but still heterogeneous infection rate scenario as a reference, where the original correlated infection rates in our CSIS model are shuffled and reallocated to the links of the same network topology. We compare these two scenarios in the average fraction of infected nodes in the metastable state on Erdös-Rényi (ER) and scale-free (SF) networks with a similar average degree. Through the continuous-time simulations, we find that, when the recovery rate is small, the negative correlation is more likely to help the epidemic spread and the positive correlation prohibits the spreading; as the recovery rate increases to be larger than a critical value, the positive but not negative correlation tends to help the spreading. Our findings are further analytically proved in a wheel network (one central node connects with each of the nodes in a ring) and validated on real-world networks with

  15. Legal rights and duties in the AIDS epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dickens, B M

    1988-02-05

    This article provides an overview of some major areas of legal concern in which the AIDS epidemic is having an impact. The rights of infected individuals to testing, treatment, and confidentiality are reviewed, and emphasis is given to their claims to nondiscrimination regarding access to health care, employment, housing, education, insurance, and related interests. Infected persons' duties to contain transmission of AIDS are outlined under principles of criminal and civil law, including liability for provision of contaminated blood products. Uninfected people's general rights to protection are considered, and health professionals' and authorities' rights and duties are given more detailed attention. In conclusion, some legal developments outside the United States are reviewed.

  16. The potential role of sports psychology in the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morelli, Vincent; Davis, Carolyn

    2013-06-01

    Sports psychologists play an important role in enhancing performance among athletes. In conjunction with team physicians, they can also shed light on psychological disorders common in athletes, such as mood and eating disorders, and overtraining syndrome. Sports psychologists can also lend their expertise to assist with injury prevention and recovery and compliance issues. Sports psychology has a role in helping to reverse the growing obesity epidemic among school-aged children. These professionals, working with coaches, can increase children's levels of physical activity. Cognitive-behavioral techniques could lead to enhanced enjoyment, increased participation, improved school performance, and a reduction in obesity. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Dreamless: the silent epidemic of REM sleep loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naiman, Rubin

    2017-10-01

    We are at least as dream deprived as we are sleep deprived. Many of the health concerns attributed to sleep loss result from a silent epidemic of REM sleep deprivation. REM/dream loss is an unrecognized public health hazard that silently wreaks havoc with our lives, contributing to illness, depression, and an erosion of consciousness. This paper compiles data about the causes and extent of REM/dream loss associated with commonly used medications, endemic substance use disorders, rampant sleep disorders, and behavioral and lifestyle factors. It examines the consequences of REM/dream loss and concludes with recommendations for restoring healthy REM/dreaming. © 2017 New York Academy of Sciences.

  18. The Arjenyattah epidemic. A mass phenomenon: spread and triggering factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modan, B; Swartz, T A; Tirosh, M; Costin, C; Weissenberg, E; Donagi, A; Acker, C; Revach, M; Vettorazzi, G

    A massive epidemic of psychogenic aetiology occurred in three districts of the West Bank over two weeks in March-April, 1983. It affected 949 individuals, 727 (77%) of them adolescent females. The symptoms were not accompanied by positive physical signs or by laboratory findings. The epidemiological pattern was pathognomonic of that of a psychogenic disorder. The initial trigger was probably the odour of H2S escaping from a faulty latrine in the schoolyard of the first affected school. Subsequent spread of the disease was due to psychological and extra-medical factors, including publicity by the mass media. Spread was stopped immediately after closure of schools.

  19. Distributive justice and the harm to medical professionals fighting epidemics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Albertsen, Andreas; Thaysen, Jens Damgaard

    2017-01-01

    , cure and care for the vulnerable, luck egalitarianism seems to imply that their claim of justice to medical attention in case of infection is weak or non-existent. The article demonstrates how a recent interpretation of luck egalitarianism offers a solution to this problem. Redefining luck...... egalitarianism as concerned with responsibility for creating disadvantages, rather than for incurring disadvantage as such, makes it possible to maintain that medical professionals are responsible for their choices and that those infected because of their choice to help fight epidemics have a full claim...... of justice to medical attention....

  20. Dynamics of a stochastic SIS model with double epidemic diseases driven by Lévy jumps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xinhong; Jiang, Daqing; Hayat, Tasawar; Ahmad, Bashir

    2017-04-01

    This paper is to investigate the dynamics of a stochastic SIS epidemic model with saturated incidence rate and double epidemic diseases which make the research more complex. The environment variability in this study is characterized by white noise and jump noise. Sufficient conditions for the extinction and persistence in the mean of two epidemic diseases are obtained. It is shown that the two diseases can coexist under appropriate conditions. Finally, numerical simulations are introduced to illustrate the results developed.

  1. Modeling historical tuberculosis epidemics among Canadian First Nations: Effects of malnutrition and genetic variation

    OpenAIRE

    Ackley, SF; Liu, F; Porco, TC; Pepperell, CS

    2015-01-01

    © 2015 Ackley et al. Late 19th century epidemics of tuberculosis (TB) inWestern Canadian First Nations resulted in peak TB mortality rates more than six times the highest rates recorded in Europe. Using a mathematical modeling approach and historical TB mortality time series, we investigate potential causes of high TB mortality and rapid epidemic decline in First Nations from 1885 to 1940. We explore two potential causes of dramatic epidemic dynamics observed in this setting: first, we explor...

  2. Phylogenetic Analysis of Enterovirus 71 Strains Isolated during Linked Epidemics in Malaysia, Singapore, and Western Australia

    OpenAIRE

    McMinn, Peter; Lindsay, Katie; Perera, David; Chan, Hung Ming; Chan, Kwai Peng; Cardosa, Mary Jane

    2001-01-01

    Enterovirus 71 (EV71) is a frequent cause of hand, foot, and mouth disease (HFMD) epidemics associated with severe neurological sequelae in a small proportion of cases. There has been a significant increase in EV71 epidemic activity throughout the Asia-Pacific region since 1997. Recent HFMD epidemics in this region have been associated with a severe form of brainstem encephalitis associated with pulmonary edema and high case fatality rates. In this study, we show that four genetic lineages of...

  3. Malaria hotspot areas in a highland Kenya site are consistent in epidemic and non-epidemic years and are associated with ecological factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ernst Kacey C

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Malaria epidemics in highland areas of East Africa have caused considerable morbidity and mortality in the past two decades. Knowledge of "hotspot" areas of high malaria incidence would allow for focused preventive interventions in resource-poor areas, particularly if the hotspot areas can be discerned during non-epidemic periods and predicted by ecological factors. Methods To address this issue, spatial distribution of malaria incidence and the relationship of ecological factors to malaria incidence were assessed in the highland area of Kipsamoite, Kenya, from 2001–2004. Results Clustering of disease in a single geographic "hotspot" area occurred in epidemic and non-epidemic years, with a 2.6 to 3.2-fold increased risk of malaria inside the hotspot, as compared to outside the area (P Conclusion In this highland area, areas of high malaria risk are consistent in epidemic and non-epidemic years and are associated with specific ecological risk factors. Ongoing interventions in areas of ecological risk factors could be a cost-effective method of significantly reducing malaria incidence and blunting or preventing epidemics, even in the absence of malaria early warning systems. Further studies should be conducted to see if these findings hold true in varied highland settings.

  4. History, Epidemic Evolution, and Model Burn-In for a Network of Annual Invasion: Soybean Rust.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanatkar, M R; Scoglio, C; Natarajan, B; Isard, S A; Garrett, K A

    2015-07-01

    Ecological history may be an important driver of epidemics and disease emergence. We evaluated the role of history and two related concepts, the evolution of epidemics and the burn-in period required for fitting a model to epidemic observations, for the U.S. soybean rust epidemic (caused by Phakopsora pachyrhizi). This disease allows evaluation of replicate epidemics because the pathogen reinvades the United States each year. We used a new maximum likelihood estimation approach for fitting the network model based on observed U.S. epidemics. We evaluated the model burn-in period by comparing model fit based on each combination of other years of observation. When the miss error rates were weighted by 0.9 and false alarm error rates by 0.1, the mean error rate did decline, for most years, as more years were used to construct models. Models based on observations in years closer in time to the season being estimated gave lower miss error rates for later epidemic years. The weighted mean error rate was lower in backcasting than in forecasting, reflecting how the epidemic had evolved. Ongoing epidemic evolution, and potential model failure, can occur because of changes in climate, host resistance and spatial patterns, or pathogen evolution.

  5. A geographic information system for the study of past epidemics: The 1705 epidemic in Martigues (Bouches-du-Rhône, France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéfan Tzortzis

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available At the beginning of the 18th century, the Provence region was hit by several severe epidemics whose causes are still not clearly understood.To draw up epidemic profiles and to identify the pathogenic agents concerned, we constituted a large onomastic database and built ageographic information system for Martigues, a medium-sized community in the south of France. The cross-linking of epidemiological,spatial and demographical data allows us to propose a new diagnosis for the epidemic which reached Martigues in the autumn of 1705.

  6. Entomological investigation of a sylvatic yellow fever area in São Paulo State, Brazil Investigação entomológica em área de ocorrência de febre amarela silvestre no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vera L. F. de Camargo-Neves

    2005-08-01

    Full Text Available Following reports of two autochthonous cases of sylvatic yellow fever in the State of São Paulo, Brazil, in 2000, entomological surveys were conducted with the objective of verifying the occurrence of vector species in forest environments close to or associated with riparian areas located in the western and northwestern regions of the State. Culicidae were captured in 39 sites distributed in four regions. Haemagogus leucocelaenus and Aedes albopictus were the most abundant species and were captured in all the regions studied. H. leucocelaenus was the most abundant species in the municipalities of Santa Albertina and Ouroeste, where the two cases of sylvatic yellow fever had been reported. Mosquitoes from the janthinomys/capricornii group were only found at eight sites in the São José do Rio Preto region, while Sabethes chloropterus was found at one site in Ribeirão Preto. H. leucocelaenus showed its capacity to adapt to a secondary and degraded environment. Our results indicate a wide receptive area for yellow fever transmission in the State of São Paulo, with particular emphasis on the possibility of H. leucocelaenus being involved in the maintenance of this sylvatic focus of the disease.O registro de dois casos autóctones de febre amarela silvestre no Estado de São Paulo, Brasil, em 2000, desencadeou investigações entomológicas com o objetivo de verificar a ocorrência das espécies vetoras em ambientes florestais próximos ou associados às zonas ribeirinhas, situados nas regiões oeste e noroeste do Estado. As capturas foram realizadas em 39 localidades distribuídas por quatro regiões do Estado. Haemagogus leucocelaenus e Aedes albopictus foram as espécies mais abundantes e capturadas em todas as regiões. H. leucocelaenus foi a espécie mais abundante nos municípios de Santa Albertina e Ouroeste, onde os casos de febre amarela silvestre foram registrados. Mosquitos do grupo janthinomys/capricornii foram encontrados em oito

  7. From neurons to epidemics: How trophic coherence affects spreading processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klaise, Janis; Johnson, Samuel

    2016-06-01

    Trophic coherence, a measure of the extent to which the nodes of a directed network are organised in levels, has recently been shown to be closely related to many structural and dynamical aspects of complex systems, including graph eigenspectra, the prevalence or absence of feedback cycles, and linear stability. Furthermore, non-trivial trophic structures have been observed in networks of neurons, species, genes, metabolites, cellular signalling, concatenated words, P2P users, and world trade. Here, we consider two simple yet apparently quite different dynamical models—one a susceptible-infected-susceptible epidemic model adapted to include complex contagion and the other an Amari-Hopfield neural network—and show that in both cases the related spreading processes are modulated in similar ways by the trophic coherence of the underlying networks. To do this, we propose a network assembly model which can generate structures with tunable trophic coherence, limiting in either perfectly stratified networks or random graphs. We find that trophic coherence can exert a qualitative change in spreading behaviour, determining whether a pulse of activity will percolate through the entire network or remain confined to a subset of nodes, and whether such activity will quickly die out or endure indefinitely. These results could be important for our understanding of phenomena such as epidemics, rumours, shocks to ecosystems, neuronal avalanches, and many other spreading processes.

  8. Selective epidemic vaccination under the performant routing algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bamaarouf, O.; Alweimine, A. Ould Baba; Rachadi, A.; EZ-Zahraouy, H.

    2018-04-01

    Despite the extensive research on traffic dynamics and epidemic spreading, the effect of the routing algorithms strategies on the traffic-driven epidemic spreading has not received an adequate attention. It is well known that more performant routing algorithm strategies are used to overcome the congestion problem. However, our main result shows unexpectedly that these algorithms favor the virus spreading more than the case where the shortest path based algorithm is used. In this work, we studied the virus spreading in a complex network using the efficient path and the global dynamic routing algorithms as compared to shortest path strategy. Some previous studies have tried to modify the routing rules to limit the virus spreading, but at the expense of reducing the traffic transport efficiency. This work proposed a solution to overcome this drawback by using a selective vaccination procedure instead of a random vaccination used often in the literature. We found that the selective vaccination succeeded in eradicating the virus better than a pure random intervention for the performant routing algorithm strategies.

  9. The role of environmental transmission in recurrent avian influenza epidemics.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Romulus Breban

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available Avian influenza virus (AIV persists in North American wild waterfowl, exhibiting major outbreaks every 2-4 years. Attempts to explain the patterns of periodicity and persistence using simple direct transmission models are unsuccessful. Motivated by empirical evidence, we examine the contribution of an overlooked AIV transmission mode: environmental transmission. It is known that infectious birds shed large concentrations of virions in the environment, where virions may persist for a long time. We thus propose that, in addition to direct fecal/oral transmission, birds may become infected by ingesting virions that have long persisted in the environment. We design a new host-pathogen model that combines within-season transmission dynamics, between-season migration and reproduction, and environmental variation. Analysis of the model yields three major results. First, environmental transmission provides a persistence mechanism within small communities where epidemics cannot be sustained by direct transmission only (i.e., communities smaller than the critical community size. Second, environmental transmission offers a parsimonious explanation of the 2-4 year periodicity of avian influenza epidemics. Third, very low levels of environmental transmission (i.e., few cases per year are sufficient for avian influenza to persist in populations where it would otherwise vanish.

  10. RABBIT POX : II. PATHOLOGY OF THE EPIDEMIC DISEASE.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greene, H S

    1934-09-30

    The lesions found in animals with epidemic rabbit pox have been described in this paper. The most distinctive gross lesion in all organs and tissues was the small nodule or papule which was found to consist of mononuclear infiltration and necrosis. Diffuse lesions were also found in which the infiltration was widespread and accompanied by edema, hemorrhage and extensive necrosis of affected tissues and organs. The possibility of the diffuse lesions being due to the action of secondary invaders was considered, but available evidence indicated that the different types, including pneumonia, represented reactions to a single causative agent. Moreover, an intimate relationship was observed to exist between lesions and small blood vessels in which primary endothelial damage was usually apparent. The degree of vascular damage generally corresponded to the extent of the lesion and it is probable that this in turn corresponded to the dose of the causative agent. The close analogy between the clinical manifestations and pathological processes of this disease in the rabbit and small pox in man led to the conclusion that the disease in the rabbit is essentially the same as small pox, and that it is probably produced by a virus closely related to the virus of small pox. Available evidence indicated that the infection originated in the Institute and that it spread in atypical form or masked by some other disease until it reached the breeding colony as a clearly defined epidemic infection.

  11. Considerations regarding antiretroviral chemoprophylaxis and heterosexuals in generalized epidemic settings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paxton, Lynn A

    2012-11-01

    To discuss the factors pertinent to the use of pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP) by at-risk heterosexuals in countries with generalized HIV epidemics. PrEP will have the greatest prevention effect if targeted to those at highest risk, but identifying and engaging such persons is challenging. Serodiscordant couples account for a high proportion of new infections and are an appropriate target for PrEP, but the proportion of people in such relationships is small and outside partnerships are common. Differences in adherence coupled to pharmacology of the drugs may account for differences in efficacy seen in the trials. Mathematical modeling indicates that the benefits of PrEP in highly endemic settings outweigh the risk of induced viral resistance. Behavioral risk compensation was not observed in the trials, but current open-label studies will better determine if disinhibition will be an important problem. PrEP is a potentially useful HIV-prevention strategy for generalized heterosexual epidemics. Optimal implementation will require learning more about ways to improve acceptability and adherence and how best to deliver PrEP within the context of limited resource availability.

  12. On the probability of extinction of the Haiti cholera epidemic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bertuzzo, Enrico; Finger, Flavio; Mari, Lorenzo; Gatto, Marino; Rinaldo, Andrea

    2014-05-01

    Nearly 3 years after its appearance in Haiti, cholera has already exacted more than 8,200 deaths and 670,000 reported cases and it is feared to become endemic. However, no clear evidence of a stable environmental reservoir of pathogenic Vibrio cholerae, the infective agent of the disease, has emerged so far, suggesting that the transmission cycle of the disease is being maintained by bacteria freshly shed by infected individuals. Thus in principle cholera could possibly be eradicated from Haiti. Here, we develop a framework for the estimation of the probability of extinction of the epidemic based on current epidemiological dynamics and health-care practice. Cholera spreading is modelled by an individual-based spatially-explicit stochastic model that accounts for the dynamics of susceptible, infected and recovered individuals hosted in different local communities connected through hydrologic and human mobility networks. Our results indicate that the probability that the epidemic goes extinct before the end of 2016 is of the order of 1%. This low probability of extinction highlights the need for more targeted and effective interventions to possibly stop cholera in Haiti.

  13. ObesiTV: how television is influencing the obesity epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boulos, Rebecca; Vikre, Emily Kuross; Oppenheimer, Sophie; Chang, Hannah; Kanarek, Robin B

    2012-08-20

    Obesity is a major public health concern in the United States. Over the last several decades, the prevalence of obesity among both adults and children has grown at an alarming rate and is now reaching epidemic proportions. The increase in obesity has been associated with rises in a host of other chronic conditions including cardiovascular disease, type 2 diabetes, and some cancers. While the causes of obesity are multifaceted, there is growing evidence that television viewing is a major contributor. Results of numerous studies indicate a direct association between time spent watching television and body weight. Possible explanations for this relationship include: 1) watching television acts as a sedentary replacement for physical activity; 2) food advertisements for nutrient-poor, high-calorie foods stimulate food intake; and 3) television viewing is associated with "mindless" eating. In addition to decreasing physical activity and increasing the consumption of highly palatable foods, television viewing can also promote weight gain in indirect ways, such as through the use of targeted product placements in television shows; by influencing social perceptions of body image; and airing programs that portray cooking, eating and losing weight as entertainment. This paper will provide an interdisciplinary review of the direct and indirect ways in which television influences the obesity epidemic, and conclude with ways in which the negative impact of television on obesity could be reduced. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Mathematical models of the AIDS epidemic: An historical perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stanley, E.A.

    1988-01-01

    Researchers developing mathematical models of the spreading of HIV, the Human Immunodeficiency Virus that causes AIDS, hope to achieve a number of goals. These goals may be classified rather broadly into three categories: understanding, prediction, and control. Understanding which are the key biological and sociological processes spreading this epidemic and leading to the deaths of those infected will allow AIDS researchers to collect better data and to identify ways of slowing the epidemic. Predicting the groups at risk and future numbers of ill people will allow an appropriate allocation of health-care resources. Analysis and comparison of proposed control methods will point out unexpected consequences and allow a better design of these programs. The processes which lead to the spread of HIV are biologically and sociologically complex. Mathematical models allow us to organize our knowledge into a coherent picture and examine the logical consequences, therefore they have the potential to be extremely useful in the search to control this disease. 24 refs., 3 figs.

  15. The History of the HIV/AIDS Epidemic in Africa.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kagaayi, Joseph; Serwadda, David

    2016-08-01

    HIV testing of African immigrants in Belgium showed that HIV existed among Africans by 1983. However, the epidemic was recognized much later in most parts of sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) due to stigma and perceived fear of possible negative consequences to the countries' economies. This delay had devastating mortality, morbidity, and social consequences. In countries where earlier recognition occurred, political leadership was vital in mounting a response. The response involved establishment of AIDS control programs and research on the HIV epidemiology and candidate preventive interventions. Over time, the number of effective interventions has grown; the game changer being triple antiretroviral therapy (ART). ART has led to a rapid decline in HIV-related morbidity and mortality in addition to prevention of onward HIV transmission. Other effective interventions include safe male circumcision, pre-exposure prophylaxis, and post-exposure prophylaxis. However, since none of these is sufficient by itself, delivering a combination package of these interventions is important for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat.

  16. Modeling a SI epidemic with stochastic transmission: hyperbolic incidence rate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christen, Alejandra; Maulén-Yañez, M Angélica; González-Olivares, Eduardo; Curé, Michel

    2018-03-01

    In this paper a stochastic susceptible-infectious (SI) epidemic model is analysed, which is based on the model proposed by Roberts and Saha (Appl Math Lett 12: 37-41, 1999), considering a hyperbolic type nonlinear incidence rate. Assuming the proportion of infected population varies with time, our new model is described by an ordinary differential equation, which is analogous to the equation that describes the double Allee effect. The limit of the solution of this equation (deterministic model) is found when time tends to infinity. Then, the asymptotic behaviour of a stochastic fluctuation due to the environmental variation in the coefficient of disease transmission is studied. Thus a stochastic differential equation (SDE) is obtained and the existence of a unique solution is proved. Moreover, the SDE is analysed through the associated Fokker-Planck equation to obtain the invariant measure when the proportion of the infected population reaches steady state. An explicit expression for invariant measure is found and we study some of its properties. The long time behaviour of deterministic and stochastic models are compared by simulations. According to our knowledge this incidence rate has not been previously used for this type of epidemic models.

  17. Optimal allocation of resources for suppressing epidemic spreading on networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Hanshuang; Li, Guofeng; Zhang, Haifeng; Hou, Zhonghuai

    2017-07-01

    Efficient allocation of limited medical resources is crucial for controlling epidemic spreading on networks. Based on the susceptible-infected-susceptible model, we solve the optimization problem of how best to allocate the limited resources so as to minimize prevalence, providing that the curing rate of each node is positively correlated to its medical resource. By quenched mean-field theory and heterogeneous mean-field (HMF) theory, we prove that an epidemic outbreak will be suppressed to the greatest extent if the curing rate of each node is directly proportional to its degree, under which the effective infection rate λ has a maximal threshold λcopt=1 / , where is the average degree of the underlying network. For a weak infection region (λ ≳λcopt ), we combine perturbation theory with the Lagrange multiplier method (LMM) to derive the analytical expression of optimal allocation of the curing rates and the corresponding minimized prevalence. For a general infection region (λ >λcopt ), the high-dimensional optimization problem is converted into numerically solving low-dimensional nonlinear equations by the HMF theory and LMM. Counterintuitively, in the strong infection region the low-degree nodes should be allocated more medical resources than the high-degree nodes to minimize prevalence. Finally, we use simulated annealing to validate the theoretical results.

  18. Women and AIDS in Zimbabwe: the making of an epidemic.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bassett, M T; Mhloyi, M

    1991-01-01

    As the AIDS epidemic in Africa assumes major proportions, the need to understand the social context in which heterosexual transmission occurs takes on urgent importance. In this article we explore how the intersection of traditional culture with the colonial legacy and present-day political economy has influenced family structure and sexual relations, and particularly the social position of women. Drawing on Zimbabwe's historical experience, we show how land expropriation, rural impoverishment, and the forcible introduction of male migrant labor fostered new patterns of sexual relations, characterized by multiple partners. Traditional patriarchal values reinterpreted in European law resulted in further subjugation of women as even limited rights to ownership were withdrawn. For many women, sexual relations with men, either within marriage (for the majority) or outside, become inextricably linked to economic and social survival. In this setting, all sexually transmitted diseases became rampant, including genital ulcer, which facilitates transmission of the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Intervention programs to halt the spread of AIDS need to take into the account the epidemic's historical roots and social nature. For example, efforts to reduce risk of HIV transmission should seek to expand women's limited options, both technically (e.g., by providing alternatives to condoms) and socially (e.g., by promoting employment).

  19. [HIV epidemic: a study among physicians in Vaud].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meystre-Agustoni, G; Van Melle, G; Chave, J P; Martin, J; Billo, N; Glauser, M P; Francioli, P

    1990-09-22

    A two-phase survey was conducted in the Canton of Vaud among the 1006 registered private practitioners (response rate 98%). The first phase aimed at determining the proportion of these physicians involved in the care of HIV+ persons. The results showed that 43% of the practitioners had been consulted by HIV+ patients. In the second phase, all institutions (hospitals, prisons and IV-drug user rehabilitation and testing centers) and a representative sample of the physicians with HIV+ patients were asked about the transmission category of their HIV+ patients. A mathematical method was used to estimate the true number of known HIV+ individuals by December 1988. Approximately 60% of the HIV+ persons had been seen exclusively by the private practitioners. IV-drug users represented 57% of all HIV+ persons compared to only 27% of the AIDS cases registered in 1988, suggesting that an important change in the transmission categories of AIDS cases is to be expected in the near future. These observations underscore the evolving nature of the HIV epidemic on the one hand, and the crucial role of the private practitioners in the prevention of the HIV infection on the other. This also points to the need for methods specifically designed to monitor HIV and AIDS epidemics respectively.

  20. Analytical Computation of the Epidemic Threshold on Temporal Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eugenio Valdano

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The time variation of contacts in a networked system may fundamentally alter the properties of spreading processes and affect the condition for large-scale propagation, as encoded in the epidemic threshold. Despite the great interest in the problem for the physics, applied mathematics, computer science, and epidemiology communities, a full theoretical understanding is still missing and currently limited to the cases where the time-scale separation holds between spreading and network dynamics or to specific temporal network models. We consider a Markov chain description of the susceptible-infectious-susceptible process on an arbitrary temporal network. By adopting a multilayer perspective, we develop a general analytical derivation of the epidemic threshold in terms of the spectral radius of a matrix that encodes both network structure and disease dynamics. The accuracy of the approach is confirmed on a set of temporal models and empirical networks and against numerical results. In addition, we explore how the threshold changes when varying the overall time of observation of the temporal network, so as to provide insights on the optimal time window for data collection of empirical temporal networked systems. Our framework is of both fundamental and practical interest, as it offers novel understanding of the interplay between temporal networks and spreading dynamics.