Sample records for swat model calibration

  1. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gorgan


    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  2. Impact of Spatial Scale on Calibration and Model Output for a Grid-based SWAT Model (United States)

    Pignotti, G.; Vema, V. K.; Rathjens, H.; Raj, C.; Her, Y.; Chaubey, I.; Crawford, M. M.


    The traditional implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model utilizes common landscape characteristics known as hydrologic response units (HRUs). Discretization into HRUs provides a simple, computationally efficient framework for simulation, but also represents a significant limitation of the model as spatial connectivity between HRUs is ignored. SWATgrid, a newly developed, distributed version of SWAT, provides modified landscape routing via a grid, overcoming these limitations. However, the current implementation of SWATgrid has significant computational overhead, which effectively precludes traditional calibration and limits the total number of grid cells in a given modeling scenario. Moreover, as SWATgrid is a relatively new modeling approach, it remains largely untested with little understanding of the impact of spatial resolution on model output. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of user-defined input resolution on SWATgrid predictions in the Upper Cedar Creek Watershed (near Auburn, IN, USA). Original input data, nominally at 30 m resolution, was rescaled for a range of resolutions between 30 and 4,000 m. A 30 m traditional SWAT model was developed as the baseline for model comparison. Monthly calibration was performed, and the calibrated parameter set was then transferred to all other SWAT and SWATgrid models to focus the effects of resolution on prediction uncertainty relative to the baseline. Model output was evaluated with respect to stream flow at the outlet and water quality parameters. Additionally, output of SWATgrid models were compared to output of traditional SWAT models at each resolution, utilizing the same scaled input data. A secondary objective considered the effect of scale on calibrated parameter values, where each standard SWAT model was calibrated independently, and parameters were transferred to SWATgrid models at equivalent scales. For each model, computational requirements were evaluated

  3. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model for a forested watershed in coastal South Carolina (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Elizabeth B. Haley; Norman S. Levine; Timothy J. Callahan; Artur Radecki-Pawlik; Manoj K. Jha


    Modeling the hydrology of low-gradient coastal watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils is a challenging task due to the complexities in watershed delineation, runoff generation processes and pathways, flooding, and submergence caused by tropical storms. The objective of the study is to calibrate and validate a GIS-based spatially-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT...

  4. Calibration and Validation of the SWAT2000 Watershed Model for Phosphorus Loading to the Cannonsville Reservoir (United States)

    Tolson, B. A.; Shoemaker, C. A.


    A comprehensive modeling effort was undertaken to simulate phosphorus (P) loading to the Cannonsville Reservoir in upstate New York. The Cannonsville Reservoir is one of the City of New York's drinking water supply reservoirs and drains an 1178 km2 watershed that is predominantly agricultural (dairy farming) and forested. The occurrence of eutrophic conditions in the reservoir, due to excessive P loading, resulted in the reservoir being classified as `phosphorus restricted'. This classification restricts future economic growth in the watershed when the growth directly or indirectly increases P loadings. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2000) was used to model the P loading to the reservoir in order to help investigate the effectiveness of proposed management options for reducing P loading. SWAT2000 is a distributed watershed model developed by the Agricultural Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture. This study is the first to apply SWAT2000 for P loading predictions in the Northeast US. SWAT2000 model development with respect to P focused initially on developing Cannonsville Watershed specific P inputs. Agricultural practices in the watershed were generalized, initial soil P levels were determined using aggregated watershed-wide soil P test results, manure spreading was based on the available manure masses as projected from local cattle population estimates and manure production characteristics were based on local manure studies. Ten years of daily P loading data were available for calibration and validation of the model. Additional bi-weekly sampling data of surface water P concentrations across the watershed were also utilized to test the spatial performance of the model. Comparison with measured data and further analysis of model equations showed that the model equations for sediment generation under snow melt conditions required modifications. In addition a number of P model parameters required calibration. Calibration results

  5. Calibration of SWAT model for woody plant encroachment using paired experimental watershed data (United States)

    Qiao, Lei; Zou, Chris B.; Will, Rodney E.; Stebler, Elaine


    Globally, rangeland has been undergoing a transition from herbaceous dominated grasslands into tree or shrub dominated woodlands with great uncertainty of associated changes in water budget. Previous modeling studies simulated the impact of woody plant encroachment on hydrological processes using models calibrated and constrained primarily by historic streamflow from intermediate sized watersheds. In this study, we calibrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model), a widely used model for cropping and grazing systems, for a prolifically encroaching juniper species, eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana), in the south-central Great Plains using species-specific biophysical and hydrological parameters and in situ meteorological forcing from three pairs of experimental watersheds (grassland versus eastern redcedar woodland) for a period of 3-years covering a dry-to-wet cycle. The multiple paired watersheds eliminated the potentially confounding edaphic and topographic influences from changes in hydrological processes related to woody encroachment. The SWAT model was optimized with the Shuffled complexes with Principal component analysis (SP-UCI) algorithm developed from the Shuffled Complexes Evolution (SCE_UA). The mean Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (NSCE) values of the calibrated model for daily and monthly runoff from experimental watersheds reached 0.96 and 0.97 for grassland, respectively, and 0.90 and 0.84 for eastern redcedar woodland, respectively. We then validated the calibrated model with a nearby, larger watershed undergoing rapid eastern redcedar encroachment. The NSCE value for monthly streamflow over a period of 22 years was 0.79. We provide detailed biophysical and hydrological parameters for tallgrass prairie under moderate grazing and eastern redcedar, which can be used to calibrate any model for further validation and application by the hydrologic modeling community.

  6. Simultaneous calibration of surface flow and baseflow simulations: A revisit of the SWAT model calibration framework (United States)

    Accurate analysis of water flow pathways from rainfall to streams is critical for simulating water use, climate change impact, and contaminant transport. In this study, we developed a new scheme to simultaneously calibrate surface flow (SF) and baseflow (BF) simulations of Soil and Water Assessment ...

  7. Calibration and validation of SWAT model for estimating water balance and nitrogen losses in a small agricultural watershed in central Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smarzyńska Karolina


    Full Text Available Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT ver. 2005 was applied to study water balance and nitrogen load pathways in a small agricultural watershed in the lowlands of central Poland. The natural flow regime of the Zgłowiączka River was strongly modified by human activity (deforestation and installation of a subsurface drainage system to facilitate stable crop production. SWAT was calibrated for daily and monthly discharge and monthly nitrate nitrogen load. Model efficiency was tested using manual techniques (subjective and evaluation statistics (objective. Values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, coefficient of determination (R2 and percentage of bias for daily/monthly discharge simulations and monthly load indicated good or very good fit of simulated discharge and nitrate nitrogen load to the observed data set. Model precision and accuracy of fit was proved in validation. The calibrated and validated SWAT was used to assess water balance and nitrogen fluxes in the watershed. According to the results, the share of tile drainage in water yield is equal to 78%. The model analysis indicated the most significant pathway of NO3-N to surface waters in the study area, namely the tile drainage combined with lateral flow. Its share in total NO3-N load amounted to 89%. Identification of nitrogen fluxes in the watershed is crucial for decision makers in order to manage water resources and to implement the most effective measures to limit diffuse pollution from arable land to surface waters.

  8. How to constrain multi-objective calibrations of the SWAT model using water balance components (United States)

    Automated procedures are often used to provide adequate fits between hydrologic model estimates and observed data. While the models may provide good fits based upon numeric criteria, they may still not accurately represent the basic hydrologic characteristics of the represented watershed. Here we ...

  9. Guidelines for using sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration tools for multi-gage or multi-step calibration in SWAT (United States)

    Autocalibration of a water quality model such as SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) can be a powerful, labor-saving tool. When multi-gage or multi-pollutant calibration is desired, autocalibration is essential because the time involved in manual calibration becomes prohibitive. The ArcSWAT Interf...

  10. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model (United States)

    Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.


    A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

  11. Hydrology and sediment yield calibration for the Barasona reservoir catchment (Spain) using SWAT (United States)

    Palazón, Leticia; Navas, Ana


    Hydrological and soil erosion models, as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), have become very useful tools and increasingly serve as vital components of integrated environmental assessments that provide information outside of direct field experiments and causal observation. The purpose of this study was to improve the calibration of SWAT model to use it in an alpine catchment as a simulator of processes related to water quality and soil erosion. SWAT is spatially semi-distributed, agro-hydrological model that operates on a daily time step (as a minimum) at basin scale. It is designed to predict the impact of management on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in ungaged catchments. SWAT provides physically based algorithms as an option to define many of the important components of the hydrologic cycle. The input requirements of the model are used to describe the climate, soil properties, topography, vegetation, and land management practices. SWAT analyzes small or large catchments by discretising into sub-basins, which are then further subdivided into hydrological response units (HRUs) with homogeneous land use, soil type and slope. SWAT model (SWAT2009) coupled with a GIS interface (ArcSWAT), was applied to the Barasona reservoir catchment located in the central Spanish Pyrenees. The 1509 km2 agro-forestry catchment presents a mountain type climate, an altitudinal range close to 3000 meters and a precipitation variation close to 1000 mm/km. The mountainous characteristics of the catchment, in addition to the scarcity of climate data in the region, require specific calibration for some processes. Snowfall and snowmelt are significant processes in the hydrologic regime of the area and were calibrated in a previous work. In this work some of the challenges of the catchment to model with SWAT which affected the hydrology and the sediment yield simulation were performed as improvement of the previous calibration. Two reservoirs, a karst system which

  12. Advancing computational methods for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Application for modeling climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina (United States)

    Ercan, Mehmet Bulent

    Watershed-scale hydrologic models are used for a variety of applications from flood prediction, to drought analysis, to water quality assessments. A particular challenge in applying these models is calibration of the model parameters, many of which are difficult to measure at the watershed-scale. A primary goal of this dissertation is to contribute new computational methods and tools for calibration of watershed-scale hydrologic models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, in particular. SWAT is a physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water quality and quantity. The dissertation follows a manuscript format meaning it is comprised of three separate but interrelated research studies. The first two research studies focus on SWAT model calibration, and the third research study presents an application of the new calibration methods and tools to study climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina using SWAT. The objective of the first two studies is to overcome computational challenges associated with calibration of SWAT models. The first study evaluates a parallel SWAT calibration tool built using the Windows Azure cloud environment and a parallel version of the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) calibration method modified to run in Azure. The calibration tool was tested for six model scenarios constructed using three watersheds of increasing size (the Eno, Upper Neuse, and Neuse) for both a 2 year and 10 year simulation duration. Leveraging the cloud as an on demand computing resource allowed for a significantly reduced calibration time such that calibration of the Neuse watershed went from taking 207 hours on a personal computer to only 3.4 hours using 256 cores in the Azure cloud. The second study aims at increasing SWAT model calibration efficiency by creating an open source, multi-objective calibration tool using the Non

  13. Calibration of Spatially Distributed Hydrological Processes and Model Parameters in SWAT Using Remote Sensing Data and an Auto-Calibration Procedure: A Case Study in a Vietnamese River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Thanh Ha


    Full Text Available In this paper, evapotranspiration (ET and leaf area index (LAI were used to calibrate the SWAT model, whereas remotely sensed precipitation and other climatic parameters were used as forcing data for the 6300 km2 Day Basin, a tributary of the Red River in Vietnam. The efficacy of the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2 parameter sensitivity and optimization model was tested with area specific remote sensing input parameters for every Hydrological Response Units (HRU, rather than with measurements of river flow representing a large set of HRUs, i.e., a bulk calibration. Simulated monthly ET correlations with remote sensing estimates showed an R2 = 0.71, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE = 0.65, and Kling Gupta Efficiency KGE = 0.80 while monthly LAI showed correlations of R2 = 0.59, NSE = 0.57 and KGE = 0.83 over a five-year validation period. Accumulated modelled ET over the 5-year calibration period amounted to 5713 mm compared to 6015 mm of remotely sensed ET, yielding a difference of 302 mm (5.3%. The monthly flow at two flow measurement stations were adequately estimated (R2 = 0.78 and 0.55, NSE = 0.71 and 0.63, KGE = 0.59 and 0.75 for Phu Ly and Ninh Binh, respectively. This outcome demonstrates the capability of SWAT model to obtain spatial and accurate simulation of eco-hydrological processes, also when rivers are ungauged and the water withdrawal system is complex.

  14. Hydrological simulation in a basin of typical tropical climate and soil using the SWAT model part I: Calibration and validation tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donizete dos R. Pereira


    New hydrological insights: The SWAT model was qualified for simulating the Pomba River sub-basin in the sites where rainfall representation was reasonable to good. The model can be used in the simulation of maximum, average and minimum annual daily streamflow based on the paired t-test, contributing with the water resources management of region, although the model still needs to be improved, mainly in the representativeness of rainfall, to give better estimates of extreme values.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preksedis M. Ndomba


    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977¿1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977-1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969-2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  16. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Indrajeet Chaubey


    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  17. Assessing Thermally Stressful Events in a Rhode Island Coldwater Fish Habitat Using the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Britta Chambers


    Full Text Available It has become increasingly important to recognize historical water quality trends so that the future impacts of climate change may be better understood. Climate studies have suggested that inland stream temperatures and average streamflow will increase over the next century in New England, thereby putting aquatic species sustained by coldwater habitats at risk. In this study we evaluated two different approaches for modeling historical streamflow and stream temperature in a Rhode Island, USA, watershed with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, using (i original SWAT and (ii SWAT plus a hydroclimatological model component that considers both hydrological inputs and air temperature. Based on daily calibration results with six years of measured streamflow and four years of stream temperature data, we examined occurrences of stressful conditions for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis using the hydroclimatological model. SWAT with the hydroclimatological component improved modestly during calibration (NSE of 0.93, R2 of 0.95 compared to the original SWAT (NSE of 0.83, R2 of 0.93. Between 1980–2009, the number of stressful events, a moment in time where high or low flows occur simultaneously with stream temperatures exceeding 21 °C, increased by 55% and average streamflow increased by 60%. This study supports using the hydroclimatological SWAT component and provides an example method for assessing stressful conditions in southern New England’s coldwater habitats.

  18. A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karim C. Abbaspour


    Full Text Available Application of integrated hydrological models to manage a watershed’s water resources are increasingly finding their way into the decision-making processes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is a multi-process model integrating hydrology, ecology, agriculture, and water quality. SWAT is a continuation of nearly 40 years of modeling efforts conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS. A large number of SWAT-related papers have appeared in ISI journals, building a world-wide consensus around the model’s stability and usefulness. The current issue is a collection of the latest research using SWAT as the modeling tool. Most models must undergo calibration/validation and uncertainty analysis. Unfortunately, these sciences are not formal subjects of teaching in most universities and the students are often left to their own resources to calibrate their model. In this paper, we focus on calibration and uncertainty analysis highlighting some serious issues in the calibration of distributed models. A protocol for calibration is also highlighted to guide the users to obtain better modeling results. Finally, a summary of the papers published in this special issue is provided in the Appendix.

  19. Impacts of manure application on SWAT model outputs in the Xiangxi River watershed (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Wang, Qingrui; Xu, Fei; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia


    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been widely used to simulate agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution; however, the impacts of livestock manure application on SWAT model outputs have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to investigate the environmental effects of livestock manure application based on the SWAT model in the Xiangxi River watershed, which is one of the largest tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Three newly-built manure databases (NB) were created and applied to different subbasins based on the actual livestock manure discharging amount. The calibration and validation values of SWAT model outputs obtained from the NB manure application and the original mixed (OM) manure were compared. The study results are as follows: (1) The livestock industry of Xingshan County developed quickly between 2005 and 2015. The downstream of the Xiangxi River (Huangliang, Shuiyuesi and Xiakou) had the largest livestock amount, and largely accounted for manure, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) production (>50%). (2) The NB manure application resulted in less phosphorus pollution (1686.35 kg for ORGP and 31.70 kg for MINP) than the OM manure application. Compared with the upstream, the downstream was influenced more by the manure application. (3) The SWAT results obtained from the NB manure had a better calibration and validation values than those from the OM manure. For ORGP, R2 and NSE values were 0.77 and 0.65 for the NB manure calibration; and the same values for the OM manure were 0.72 and 0.61, respectively. For MINP, R2 values were 0.65 and 0.62 for the NB manure and the OM manure, and the NSE values were 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The results indicated that the built-in fertilizer database in SWAT has its limitation because it is set up for the simulation in the USA. Thus, when livestock manure is considered in a SWAT simulation, a newly built fertilizer database needs to be set up to represent

  20. Introducing a new open source GIS user interface for the SWAT model (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a robust watershed modelling tool. It typically uses the ArcSWAT interface to create its inputs. ArcSWAT is public domain software which works in the licensed ArcGIS environment. The aim of this paper was to develop an open source user interface ...

  1. Prediction of phosphorus loads in an artificially drained lowland catchment using a modified SWAT model (United States)

    Bauwe, Andreas; Eckhardt, Kai-Uwe; Lennartz, Bernd


    Eutrophication is still one of the main environmental problems in the Baltic Sea. Currently, agricultural diffuse sources constitute the major portion of phosphorus (P) fluxes to the Baltic Sea and have to be reduced to achieve the HELCOM targets and improve the ecological status. Eco-hydrological models are suitable tools to identify sources of nutrients and possible measures aiming at reducing nutrient loads into surface waters. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Warnow river basin (3300 km2), the second largest watershed in Germany discharging into the Baltic Sea. The Warnow river basin is located in northeastern Germany and characterized by lowlands with a high proportion of artificially drained areas. The aim of this study were (i) to estimate P loadings for individual flow fractions (point sources, surface runoff, tile flow, groundwater flow), spatially distributed on sub-basin scale. Since the official version of SWAT does not allow for the modeling of P in tile drains, we tested (ii) two different approaches of simulating P in tile drains by changing the SWAT source code. The SWAT source code was modified so that (i) the soluble P concentration of the groundwater was transferred to the tile water and (ii) the soluble P in the soil was transferred to the tiles. The SWAT model was first calibrated (2002-2011) and validated (1992-2001) for stream flow at 7 headwater catchments at a daily time scale. Based on this, the stream flow at the outlet of the Warnow river basin was simulated. Performance statistics indicated at least satisfactory model results for each sub-basin. Breaking down the discharge into flow constituents, it becomes visible that stream flow is mainly governed by groundwater and tile flow. Due to the topographic situation with gentle slopes, surface runoff played only a minor role. Results further indicate that the prediction of soluble P loads was improved by the modified SWAT versions. Major sources of

  2. Application of WRF - SWAT OpenMI 2.0 based models integration for real time hydrological modelling and forecasting (United States)

    Bugaets, Andrey; Gonchukov, Leonid


    coinciding as virtual weather stations) realized as OpenMI AdaptedOutput. In order to make sure that SWAT-WRF integration technically sounds and preevaluate the impact of the climatic data resolution on the model parameters a number of test calculations were performed with different time-spatial aggregation of WRF output. Numerical experiments were carried out for the period of 2012-2013 on the Komarovka river watershed (former Primorskaya water-balance station) located in the small mountains landscapes in the western part of the Khankaiskaya plain. The watershed outlet is equipped with the automatic water level and rain gauging stations of Primorie Hydrometeorological Agency (Prigidromet observation network. Spatial structure of SWAT simulation realized by ArcSWAT 2012 with 10m DEM resolution and 1:50000 soils and landuse cover. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are performed with SWAT CUP. WRF-SWAT composition is assembled in the GUI OpenMI. For the test basin in most cases the simulation results show that the predicted and measured water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement. Enforcing SWAT with WRF output avoids some semi-empirical model approximation, replaces a native weather generator for WRF forecast interval and improved upon the operational streamflow forecast. It is anticipated that leveraging direct use of the WRF variables (not only substituted standard SWAT input) will have good potential to make SWAT more physically sound.

  3. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Zarrinehrud Basin Using SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mansouri


    Full Text Available This paper evaluate impacts of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the future Using statistical model, LARS-WG, and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT. In order to the Zarrinehrud river basin, as the biggest catchment of the Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. At first, for the generation of future weather data in the basin, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then 14 models of AOGCM were applied and results of these models were downscaled using LARS-WG model in 6 synoptic stations for period of 2015 to 2030. SWAT model was used for evaluation of climate change impacts on runoff in the basin. In order to, the model was calibrated and validated using 6 gauging stations for period of 1987-2007 and the value of R2 was between 0.49 and 0.71 for calibration and between 0.54 and 0.77 for validation. Then by introducing average of downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, runoff changes of the basin were simulated during 2015-2030. Average of results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly mean of minimum and maximum temperatures will increase compared to the baseline period. Also monthly average of precipitation will decrease in spring season but will increase in summer and autumn. The results showed that in addition to the amount of precipitation, its pattern will change in the future period, too. The results of runoff simulation showed that the amount of inflow to the Zarrinehrud reservoir will reduce 28.4 percent compared to the baseline period.

  4. Modeling nitrate-nitrogen load reduction strategies for the des moines river, iowa using SWAT (United States)

    Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.


    The Des Moines River that drains a watershed of 16,175 km2 in portions of Iowa and Minnesota is impaired for nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) due to concentrations that exceed regulatory limits for public water supplies. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to model streamflow and nitrate loads and evaluate a suite of basin-wide changes and targeting configurations to potentially reduce nitrate loads in the river. The SWAT model comprised 173 subbasins and 2,516 hydrologic response units and included point and nonpoint nitrogen sources. The model was calibrated for an 11-year period and three basin-wide and four targeting strategies were evaluated. Results indicated that nonpoint sources accounted for 95% of the total nitrate export. Reduction in fertilizer applications from 170 to 50 kg/ha achieved the 38% reduction in nitrate loads, exceeding the 34% reduction required. In terms of targeting, the most efficient load reductions occurred when fertilizer applications were reduced in subbasins nearest the watershed outlet. The greatest load reduction for the area of land treated was associated with reducing loads from 55 subbasins with the highest nitrate loads, achieving a 14% reduction in nitrate loads achieved by reducing applications on 30% of the land area. SWAT model results provide much needed guidance on how to begin implementing load reduction strategies most efficiently in the Des Moines River watershed. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  5. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis for pesticide transport in watershed-scale water quality modeling using SWAT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Yuzhou [University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035 (China); Zhang Minghua, E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.ed [University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035 (China)


    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated for hydrology conditions in an agricultural watershed of Orestimba Creek, California, and applied to simulate fate and transport of two organophosphate pesticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon. The model showed capability in evaluating pesticide fate and transport processes in agricultural fields and instream network. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis was conducted by applied stochastic SWAT simulations for pesticide distribution. Results of sensitivity analysis identified the governing processes in pesticide outputs as surface runoff, soil erosion, and sedimentation in the study area. By incorporating sensitive parameters in pesticide transport simulation, effects of structural best management practices (BMPs) in improving surface water quality were demonstrated by SWAT modeling. This study also recommends conservation practices designed to reduce field yield and in-stream transport capacity of sediment, such as filter strip, grassed waterway, crop residue management, and tailwater pond to be implemented in the Orestimba Creek watershed. - Selected structural BMPs are recommended for reducing loads of OP pesticides.

  6. Enabling Large Scale Fine Resolution Flood Modeling Using SWAT and LISFLOOD-FP (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Rajib, A.; Merwade, V.


    Due to computational burden, most large scale hydrologic models are not created to generate streamflow hydrographs for lower order ungauged streams. Similarly, most flood inundation mapping studies are performed at major stream reaches. As a result, it is not possible to get reliable flow estimates and flood extents for vast majority of the areas where no stream gauging stations are available. The objective of this study is to loosely couple spatially distributed hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with a 1D/2D hydrodynamic model, LISFLOOD-FP, for large scale fine resolution flood inundation modeling. The model setup is created for the 491,000 km2 drainage area of the Ohio River Basin in the United States. In the current framework, SWAT model is calibrated with historical streamflow data over the past 80 years (1935-2014) to provide streamflow time-series for more than 100,000 NHDPlus stream reaches in the basin. The post-calibration evaluation shows that the simulated daily streamflow has a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in the range of 0.4-0.7 against observed records across the basin. Streamflow outputs from the calibrated SWAT are subsequently used to drive LISFLOOD-FP and routed along the streams/floodplain using the built-in subgrid solver. LISFLOOD-FP is set up for the Ohio River Basin using 90m digital elevation model, and is executed on high performance computing resources at Purdue University. The flood extents produced by LISFLOOD-FP show good agreement with observed inundation. The current modeling framework lays foundation for near real-time streamflow forecasting and prediction of time-varying flood inundation maps along the NHDPlus network.

  7. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab


    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  8. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Ecohydrological Model Circa 2015: Global Application Trends, Insights and Issues (United States)

    Gassman, P. W.; Arnold, J. G.; Srinivasan, R.


    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed-scale water quality models in the world. Over 2,000 peer-reviewed SWAT-related journal articles have been published and hundreds of other studies have been published in conference proceedings and other formats. The use of SWAT was initially concentrated in North America and Europe but has also expanded dramatically in other countries and regions during the past decade including Brazil, China, India, Iran, South Korea, Southeast Asia and eastern Africa. The SWAT model has proven to be a very flexible tool for investigating a broad range of hydrologic and water quality problems at different watershed scales and environmental conditions, and has proven very adaptable for applications requiring improved hydrologic and other enhanced simulation needs. We investigate here the various technological, networking, and other factors that have supported the expanded use of SWAT, and also highlight current worldwide simulation trends and possible impediments to future increased usage of the model. Examples of technological advances include easy access to web-based documentation, user-support groups, and SWAT literature, a variety of Geographic Information System (GIS) interface tools, pre- and post-processing calibration software and other software, and an open source code which has served as a model development catalyst for multiple user groups. Extensive networking regarding the use of SWAT has further occurred via internet-based user support groups, model training workshops, regional working groups, regional and international conferences, and targeted development workshops. We further highlight several important model development trends that have emerged during the past decade including improved hydrologic, cropping system, best management practice (BMP) and pollutant transport simulation methods. In addition, several current SWAT weaknesses will be addressed and key development needs will be

  9. Comparison of model performance and simulated water balance using NASIM and SWAT for the Wupper River Basin, Germany (United States)

    Lorza, Paula; Nottebohm, Martin; Scheibel, Marc; aus der Beek, Tim


    Under the framework of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), climate change impacts on the water cycle in the Wupper catchment area are being studied. With this purpose, a set of hydrological models in NASIM and SWAT have been set up, calibrated, and validated for past conditions using available data. NASIM is a physically-based, lumped, hydrological model based on the water balance equation. For the upper part of the Dhünn catchment area - Wupper River's main tributary - a SWAT model was also implemented. Observed and simulated discharge by NASIM and SWAT for the drainage area upstream of Neumühle hydrometric station (close to Große Dhünn reservoir's inlet) are compared. Comparison of simulated water balance for several hydrological years between the two models is also carried out. While NASIM offers high level of detail for modelling of complex urban areas and the possibility of entering precipitation time series at fine temporal resolution (e.g. minutely data), SWAT enables to study long-term impacts offering a huge variety of input and output variables including different soil properties, vegetation and land management practices. Beside runoff, also sediment and nutrient transport can be simulated. For most calculations, SWAT operates on a daily time step. The objective of this and future work is to determine catchment responses on different meteorological events and to study parameter sensitivity of stationary inputs such as soil parameters, vegetation or land use. Model performance is assessed with different statistical metrics (relative volume error, coefficient of determination, and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency).

  10. A comparison of single- and multi-site calibration and validation: a case study of SWAT in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China (United States)

    Bai, Jianwen; Shen, Zhenyao; Yan, Tiezhu


    An essential task in evaluating global water resource and pollution problems is to obtain the optimum set of parameters in hydrological models through calibration and validation. For a large-scale watershed, single-site calibration and validation may ignore spatial heterogeneity and may not meet the needs of the entire watershed. The goal of this study is to apply a multi-site calibration and validation of the Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT), using the observed flow data at three monitoring sites within the Baihe watershed of the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China. Our results indicate that the multi-site calibration parameter values are more reasonable than those obtained from single-site calibrations. These results are mainly due to significant differences in the topographic factors over the large-scale area, human activities and climate variability. The multi-site method involves the division of the large watershed into smaller watersheds, and applying the calibrated parameters of the multi-site calibration to the entire watershed. It was anticipated that this case study could provide experience of multi-site calibration in a large-scale basin, and provide a good foundation for the simulation of other pollutants in followup work in the Miyun Reservoir watershed and other similar large areas.

  11. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model ecosystem services: A systematic review (United States)

    Francesconi, Wendy; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Pérez-Miñana, Elena; Willcock, Simon P.; Quintero, Marcela


    SWAT, a watershed modeling tool has been proposed to help quantify ecosystem services. The concept of ecosystem services incorporates the collective benefits natural systems provide primarily to human beings. It is becoming increasingly important to track the impact that human activities have on the environment in order to determine its resilience and sustainability. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of efforts using SWAT to quantify ecosystem services, to determine the model's capability examining various types of services, and to describe the approach used by various researchers. A literature review was conducted to identify studies in which SWAT was explicitly used for quantifying ecosystem services in terms of provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural aspects. A total of 44 peer reviewed publications were identified. Most of these used SWAT to quantify provisioning services (34%), regulating services (27%), or a combination of both (25%). While studies using SWAT for evaluating ecosystem services are limited (approximately 1% of SWAT's peered review publications), and usage (vs. potential) of services by beneficiaries is a current model limitation, the available literature sets the stage for the continuous development and potential of SWAT as a methodological framework for quantifying ecosystem services to assist in decision-making.

  12. Advances in the application of the SWAT model for water resources management (United States)

    Jayakrishnan, R.; Srinivasan, R.; Santhi, C.; Arnold, J. G.


    Developments in computer technology have revolutionized the study of hydrologic systems and water resources management. Several computer-based hydrologic/water quality models have been developed for applications in hydrologic modelling and water resources studies. Distributed parameter models, necessary for basin-scale studies, have large input data requirements. Geographic information systems (GIS) and model-GIS interfaces aid the efficient creation of input data files required by such models. One such model available for the water resources professional is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a distributed parameter model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture. This paper describes some recent advances made in the application of SWAT and the SWAT-GIS interface for water resources management. Four case studies are presented. The Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS) project used SWAT to conduct a national-scale analysis of the effect of management scenarios on water quantity and quality. Integration of the SWAT model with rainfall data available from the WSR-88D radar network helps us to incorporate the spatial variability of rainfall into the modelling process. This study demonstrates the usefulness of radar rainfall data in distributed hydrologic studies and the potential of SWAT for application in flood analysis and prediction. A hydrologic modelling study of the Sondu river basin in Kenya using SWAT indicates the potential for application of the model in African watersheds and points to the need for development of better model input data sets in Africa, which are critical for detailed water resources studies. The application of SWAT for water quality analysis in the Bosque river basin, Texas demonstrates the strength of the model for analysing different management scenarios to minimize point and non-point pollution, and its potential for application in total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies.

  13. Impact Assessment of Morphological Features on Watersheds Using SWAT Model (United States)

    Kaya, S.; Kutukcu, A.


    Defining the morphological characteristics of a basin enables carrying out numerous hydrological assessments such as flow value of the basin. In this study the impacts of morphological features designated for the basins on the flow were analyzed. Related to the basin flow shape, drainage density, bifurcation ratio and texture ratio were evaluated using morphological parameters. In the study, Büyük Menderes River Basin and Gediz River Basin which extend across a long valley and flow into the Aegean Sea, were selected as the study area. In the calculation of morphometric parameters regarding the basins, DTM which has 10 m spatial resolution was used. DTM was used as input data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT model which makes significant contributions to the modelling of big basins for hydrologists. The flow value obtained as a result of operating the model facilitates to verify the conducted morphological analyses. On account of operating the model, hydrological parameters on the basis of sub basins were also obtained, which in return makes it possible to understand the hydrological reactions within the basin. The results of the conducted study can be effectively used for integrated watershed management which requires detailed hydrological parameters can be obtained using modern tools such as numerical models.

  14. Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model (United States)

    This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

  15. Rainfall-runoff modelling of Ajay river catchment using SWAT model (United States)

    Kangsabanik, Subhadip; Murmu, Sneha


    The present study is based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model which integrates the GIS information with attribute database to estimate the runoff of Ajay River catchment. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a physically based distributed parameter model which has been developed to predict runoff, erosion, sediment and nutrient transport from agricultural watersheds under different management practices. The SWAT Model works in conjunction with Arc GIS. In the present study the catchment area has been delineated using the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and then divided into 19 sub-basins. For preparation of landuse map the IRS-P6 LISS-III image has been used and the soil map is extracted from HWSD (Harmonized World Soil Database) Raster world soil map. The sub basins are further divided into 223 HRUs which stands for Hydrological Response Unit. Then by using 30 years of daily rainfall data and daily maximum and minimum temperature data SWAT simulation is done for daily, monthly and yearly basis to find out Runoff for corresponding Rainfall. The coefficient of correlation (r) for rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is found to be 0.9419.

  16. Simulating Flash Floods at Hourly Time-Step Using the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Laurie Boithias


    Full Text Available Flash floods are natural phenomena with environmental, social and economic impacts. To date, few numerical models are able to simulate hydrological processes at catchment scale at a reasonable time scale to describe flash events with accurate details. Considering a ~810 km2 Mediterranean river coastal basin (southwestern France as a study case, the objective of the present study was to assess the ability of the sub-daily module of the lumped Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT to simulate discharge (1 time-continuously, by testing two sub-basin delineation schemes, two catchment sizes, and two output time-steps; and (2 at flood time-scale, by comparing the performances of SWAT to the performances of the event-based fully distributed MARINE model when simulating flash flood events. We showed that there was no benefit of decreasing the size of the minimum drainage area (e.g., from ~15 km2 down to ~1 km2 when delineating sub-basins in SWAT. We also showed that both the MARINE and SWAT models were equally able to reproduce peak discharge, flood timing and volume, and that they were both limited by rainfall and soil data. Hence, the SWAT model appears to be a reliable modelling tool to predict discharge over long periods of time in large flash-flood-prone basins.

  17. Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Heuvelmans


    Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the

  18. Modelling streamflow from two small South African experimental catchments using the SWAT model (United States)

    Govender, M.; Everson, C. S.


    Increasing demand for timber products results in the expansion of commercial afforestation in South Africa. The conversion of indigenous seasonally dormant grassland to evergreen forests results in increased transpiration and ultimately a reduction in catchment runoff, creating a negative impact on the country's scarce water supplies. In order to assist managers in the decision-making processes it is important to be able to accurately assess and predict hydrological processes, and the impact that land use change will have on water resources. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) provides a means of performing these assessments. One of the key strengths of the SWAT model lies in its ability to model the relative impacts of changes in management practices, climate and vegetation on water quantity and quality.The aim of this study was to determine if the SWAT model could reasonably simulate hydrological processes in daily time steps from two small South African catchments. To verify the SWAT model a grassland (C VIgrass) and Pinus patula afforested catchment (C IIpine) were selected from the Cathedral Peak hydrological research station in the KwaZulu Natal Drakensberg mountains. These catchments were chosen because of the availability of detailed hydrological records and suitable land use.Observed and simulated streamflow for C VIgrass and C IIpine were compared. When model fits of observed and simulated streamflow for C VIgrass were acceptable, this parameter set was then used in the configuration of C IIpine. Results show that the model performs well for C VIgrass with reasonable agreement between modelled and observed data (R2 = 0.68). Comparisons for C IIpine show a total oversimulation of streamflow for the period 1950 to 1965, with deviations between observed and modelled data increasing from 1959 to 1965, due to the model not accounting for the increase in ET brought about by the maturing pine plantation.

  19. Simulation of lateral flow with SWAT (United States)

    Calibration of the SWAT model for the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) showed that percolation through the restrictive claypan layer, lateral flow above that layer, and redistribution of excess moisture up to the ground surface were not correctly simulated. In addition, surface runoff a...

  20. The modified SWAT model for predicting fecal coliforms in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed, USA. (United States)

    Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Kim, Joon Ha; Kim, Jung-Woo; Park, Mi-Hyun


    This study assessed fecal coliform contamination in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed in Massachusetts, USA using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) because bacteria are one of the major water quality parameters of concern. The bacteria subroutine in SWAT, considering in-stream bacteria die-off only, was modified in this study to include solar radiation-associated die-off and the contribution of wildlife. The result of sensitivity analysis demonstrates that solar radiation is one of the most significant fate factors of fecal coliform. A water temperature-associated function to represent the contribution of beaver activity in the watershed to fecal contamination improved prediction accuracy. The modified SWAT model provides an improved estimate of bacteria from the watershed. Our approach will be useful for simulating bacterial concentrations to provide predictive and reliable information of fecal contamination thus facilitating the implementation of effective watershed management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Modelling water-harvesting systems in the arid south of Tunisia using SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ouessar


    Full Text Available In many arid countries, runoff water-harvesting systems support the livelihood of the rural population. Little is known, however, about the effect of these systems on the water balance components of arid watersheds. The objective of this study was to adapt and evaluate the GIS-based watershed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool for simulating the main hydrologic processes in arid environments. The model was applied to the 270-km2 watershed of wadi Koutine in southeast Tunisia, which receives about 200 mm annual rain. The main adjustment for adapting the model to this dry Mediterranean environment was the inclusion of water-harvesting systems, which capture and use surface runoff for crop production in upstream subbasins, and a modification of the crop growth processes. The adjusted version of the model was named SWAT-WH. Model evaluation was performed based on 38 runoff events recorded at the Koutine station between 1973 and 1985. The model predicted that the average annual watershed rainfall of the 12-year evaluation period (209 mm was split into ET (72%, groundwater recharge (22% and outflow (6%. The evaluation coefficients for calibration and validation were, respectively, R2 (coefficient of determination 0.77 and 0.44; E (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.73 and 0.43; and MAE (Mean Absolute Error 2.6 mm and 3.0 mm, indicating that the model could reproduce the observed events reasonably well. However, the runoff record was dominated by two extreme events, which had a strong effect on the evaluation criteria. Discrepancies remained mainly due to uncertainties in the observed daily rainfall and runoff data. Recommendations for future research include the installation of additional rainfall and runoff gauges with continuous data logging and the collection of more field data to represent the soils and land use. In addition, crop growth and yield monitoring is needed for a proper evaluation of crop production, to

  2. Flow forecast by SWAT model and ANN in Pracana basin, Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demirel, M.C.; Venancio, Anabela; Kahya, Ercan


    This study provides a unique opportunity to analyze the issue of flow forecast based on the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. In last two decades, the ANNs have been extensively applied to various water resources system problems. In this study, the

  3. Anthropogenic factors as an element of uncertainty in hydrological modelling of water yield with SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Corobov


    Full Text Available In 2014 the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used as a basis for follow-up investigations of Moldova’s small rivers potential flow. The first step of the study included the validation of SWAT for local conditions. As an experimental area, the Cogilnic River watershed was selected. Interim steps included the watershed delineation aimed to identify the subwatersheds and the Hydrological Response Units (small entities with the same characteristics of hydrologic soil type, land use and slopes. To address these tasks, the land cover, soil and slope layers, based on the Digital Elevation Model, were integrated in the SWAT environment. These thematic layers, alongside with long-term information on local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation, enabled reflecting the differences in hydrological conditions and defining the watershed runoff. However, the validation of the modelling outputs, carried out through comparison of a simulated water yield from the studied watershed with actual Cogilnic streamflow measures, observed in 2010-2012, showed a great discrepancy between these parameters caused by anthropogenic loading on this small river. Thus, a ‘classical’ SWAT modelling needs to account for real environmental conditions and water use in the study area.

  4. Assessment of land-use change on streamflow using GIS, remote sensing and a physically-based model, SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. G. Dos Santos


    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the impact of the land-use changes between the periods 1967−1974 and 1997−2008 on the streamflow of Tapacurá catchment (northeastern Brazil using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. The results show that the most sensitive parameters were the baseflow, Manning factor, time of concentration and soil evaporation compensation factor, which affect the catchment hydrology. The model calibration and validation were performed on a monthly basis, and the streamflow simulation showed a good level of accuracy for both periods. The obtained R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for each period were respectively 0.82 and 0.81 for 1967−1974, and 0.93 and 0.92 for the period 1997−2008. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to the land cover has shown that the mean monthly flow, during the rainy seasons for 1967−1974, decreased when compared to 1997−2008.

  5. Quantifying the Contribution of On-Site Wastewater Treatment Systems to Stream Discharge Using the SWAT Model. (United States)

    Oliver, C W; Radcliffe, D E; Risse, L M; Habteselassie, M; Mukundan, R; Jeong, J; Hoghooghi, N


    In the southeastern United States, on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs) are widely used for domestic wastewater treatment. The degree to which OWTSs represent consumptive water use has been questioned in Georgia. The goal of this study was to estimate the effect of OWTSs on streamflow in a gauged watershed in Gwinnett County, Georgia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed-scale model, which includes a new OWTS algorithm. Streamflow was modeled with and without the presence of OWTSs. The model was calibrated using data from 1 Jan. 2003 to 31 Dec. 2006 and validated from 1 Jan. 2007 to 31 Dec. 2010 using the auto-calibration tool SWAT-CUP 4. The daily and monthly streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.49 and 0.71, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.37 and 0.68, respectively, for the validation period, indicating a satisfactory fit. Analysis of water balance output variables between simulations showed a 3.1% increase in total water yield at the watershed scale and a 5.9% increase at the subbasin scale for a high-density OWTS area. The percent change in water yield between simulations was the greatest in dry years, implying that the influence of OWTSs on the water yield is greatest under drought conditions. Mean OWTS water use was approximately 5.7% consumptive, contrary to common assumptions by water planning agencies in Georgia. Results from this study may be used by OWTS users and by watershed planners to understand the influence of OWTSs on water quantity within watersheds in this region. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  6. Evaluation of non-point source pollution reduction by applying best management practices using a SWAT model and QuickBird high resolution satellite imagery. (United States)

    Lee, MiSeon; Park, GeunAe; Park, MinJi; Park, JongYoon; Lee, JiWan; Kim, SeongJoon


    This study evaluated the reduction effect of non-point source pollution by applying best management practices (BMPs) to a 1.21 km2 small agricultural watershed using a SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Two meter QuickBird land use data were prepared for the watershed. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow and monthly water quality (total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and suspended solids (SS)) records from 1999 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2002. The average Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.63 for the streamflow and the coefficients of determination were 0.88, 0.72, and 0.68 for SS, TN, and TP, respectively. Four BMP scenarios viz. the application of vegetation filter strip and riparian buffer system, the regulation of Universal Soil Loss Equation P factor, and the fertilizing control amount for crops were applied and analyzed.

  7. A simple rule based model for scheduling farm management operations in SWAT (United States)

    Schürz, Christoph; Mehdi, Bano; Schulz, Karsten


    For many interdisciplinary questions at the watershed scale, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT; Arnold et al., 1998) has become an accepted and widely used tool. Despite its flexibility, the model is highly demanding when it comes to input data. At SWAT's core the water balance and the modeled nutrient cycles are plant growth driven (implemented with the EPIC crop growth model). Therefore, land use and crop data with high spatial and thematic resolution, as well as detailed information on cultivation and farm management practices are required. For many applications of the model however, these data are unavailable. In order to meet these requirements, SWAT offers the option to trigger scheduled farm management operations by applying the Potential Heat Unit (PHU) concept. The PHU concept solely takes into account the accumulation of daily mean temperature for management scheduling. Hence, it contradicts several farming strategies that take place in reality; such as: i) Planting and harvesting dates are set much too early or too late, as the PHU concept is strongly sensitivity to inter-annual temperature fluctuations; ii) The timing of fertilizer application, in SWAT this often occurs simultaneously on the same date in in each field; iii) and can also coincide with precipitation events. Particularly, the latter two can lead to strong peaks in modeled nutrient loads. To cope with these shortcomings we propose a simple rule based model (RBM) to schedule management operations according to realistic farmer management practices in SWAT. The RBM involves simple strategies requiring only data that are input into the SWAT model initially, such as temperature and precipitation data. The user provides boundaries of time periods for operation schedules to take place for all crops in the model. These data are readily available from the literature or from crop variety trials. The RBM applies the dates by complying with the following rules: i) Operations scheduled in the

  8. Baseflow simulation using SWAT model in an inland river basin in Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Luo


    Full Text Available Baseflow is an important component in hydrological modeling. The complex streamflow recession process complicates the baseflow simulation. In order to simulate the snow and/or glacier melt dominated streamflow receding quickly during the high-flow period but very slowly during the low-flow period in rivers in arid and cold northwest China, the current one-reservoir baseflow approach in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool model was extended by adding a slow- reacting reservoir and applying it to the Manas River basin in the Tianshan Mountains. Meanwhile, a digital filter program was employed to separate baseflow from streamflow records for comparisons. Results indicated that the two-reservoir method yielded much better results than the one-reservoir one in reproducing streamflow processes, and the low-flow estimation was improved markedly. Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values at the calibration and validation stages are 0.68 and 0.62 for the one-reservoir case, and 0.76 and 0.69 for the two-reservoir case. The filter-based method estimated the baseflow index as 0.60, while the model-based as 0.45. The filter-based baseflow responded almost immediately to surface runoff occurrence at onset of rising limb, while the model-based responded with a delay. In consideration of watershed surface storage retention and soil freezing/thawing effects on infiltration and recharge during initial snowmelt season, a delay response is considered to be more reasonable. However, a more detailed description of freezing/thawing processes should be included in soil modules so as to determine recharge to aquifer during these processes, and thus an accurate onset point of rising limb of the simulated baseflow.

  9. SWAT Model Prediction of Phosphorus Loading in a South Carolina Karst Watershed with a Downstream Embayment (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Manoj K. Jha; Thomas M. Williams; Amy E. Edwards; Daniel R.. Hitchcock


    The SWAT model was used to predict total phosphorus (TP) loadings for a 1555-ha karst watershed—Chapel Branch Creek (CBC)—which drains to a lake via a reservoir-like embayment (R-E). The model was first tested for monthly streamflow predictions from tributaries draining three potential source areas as well as the downstream R-E, followed by TP loadings using data...

  10. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  11. Improving streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model by assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture observations (United States)

    Patil, Amol; Ramsankaran, RAAJ


    This article presents a study carried out using EnKF based assimilation of coarser-scale SMOS soil moisture retrievals to improve the streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model in a large catchment. This study has been carried out in Munneru river catchment, India, which is about 10,156 km2. In this study, an EnkF based new approach is proposed for improving the inherent vertical coupling of soil layers of SWAT hydrological model during soil moisture data assimilation. Evaluation of the vertical error correlation obtained between surface and subsurface layers indicates that the vertical coupling can be improved significantly using ensemble of soil storages compared to the traditional static soil storages based EnKF approach. However, the improvements in the simulated streamflow are moderate, which is due to the limitations in SWAT model in reflecting the profile soil moisture updates in surface runoff computations. Further, it is observed that the durability of streamflow improvements is longer when the assimilation system effectively updates the subsurface flow component. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that the passive microwave-based coarser-scale soil moisture products like SMOS hold significant potential to improve the streamflow estimates when assimilating into large-scale distributed hydrological models operating at a daily time step.

  12. Sediment management modelling in the Blue Nile Basin using SWAT model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D. Betrie


    Full Text Available Soil erosion/sedimentation is an immense problem that has threatened water resources development in the Nile river basin, particularly in the Eastern Nile (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. An insight into soil erosion/sedimentation mechanisms and mitigation methods plays an imperative role for the sustainable water resources development in the region. This paper presents daily sediment yield simulations in the Upper Blue Nile under different Best Management Practice (BMP scenarios. Scenarios applied in this paper are (i maintaining existing conditions, (ii introducing filter strips, (iii applying stone bunds (parallel terraces, and (iv reforestation. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was used to model soil erosion, identify soil erosion prone areas and assess the impact of BMPs on sediment reduction. For the existing conditions scenario, the model results showed a satisfactory agreement between daily observed and simulated sediment concentrations as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.83. The simulation results showed that applying filter strips, stone bunds and reforestation scenarios reduced the current sediment yields both at the subbasins and the basin outlets. However, a precise interpretation of the quantitative results may not be appropriate because some physical processes are not well represented in the SWAT model.

  13. Aplicación del modelo hidrológico-swat-en una microcuenca agrícola de La Pampa ondulada Application of the hydrologic model - swat - on a micro agricultural basin of the rolling Pampa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Behrends Kraemer


    Full Text Available El modelado hidrológico es a menudo el primer paso en el desarrollo de sistemas de decisión espacial para identificaráreas vulnerables a la contaminación por nutrientes, pesticidas así como también a contaminantes biológicos. En este sentido el SWAT (Soil and Water Assesment Tool fue desarrollado para predecir impactos de las prácticas de manejo de las tierras en las aguas, sedimentos y agroquímicos en cuencas hidrográficas con diferentes suelos, usos y prácticas en largos períodos de tiempo. Aunque el mismo está siendo aplicado en todo el mundo, todavía no esta difundido su uso en la Argentina, no encontrándose al momento reportes al respecto. Este modelo se utilizó en una microcuenca agrícola de la Pampa Ondulada (Argentina y fue calibrado y validado utilizando los valores de escurrimientos medidos in situ. Se encontraron buenas eficiencias a escala diaria (R²: 0,55; R² ENS: 0,52 y pobres a escala mensual (R²: 0,34; R² ENS: 0,04. En la calibración, los escurrimientos fueron sobreestimados en un 31,8% y 32,6% para la escala mensual y diaria respectivamente, mientras que en la validación se sobreestimó un 42,5% para los valores mensuales y un 41,2% para los diarios. La aplicación del SWAT en esta microcuenca agrícola resultó auspiciosa y conduce a la inclusión de dicho modelo en futuros trabajos.A hydrological model is often the first step for the development of spatial decision systems in order to identify vulnerable areas to the pollution by nutrients, pesticides as well as biological contaminants. The SWAT model was developed to predict the impact of land management on water, agrochemicals and sediments in hydrographical basins with different soils, land uses and practices for long time periods. This model is being used all over the world but it has not been applied in Argentina until present. The SWAT model was used in an agricultural microbasin in the Rolling Pampa (Argentina and was calibrated and validated

  14. Assessment of soil erosion risk in Komering watershed, South Sumatera, using SWAT model (United States)

    Salsabilla, A.; Kusratmoko, E.


    Changes in land use watershed led to environmental degradation. Estimated loss of soil erosion is often difficult due to some factors such as topography, land use, climate and human activities. This study aims to predict soil erosion hazard and sediment yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model. The SWAT was chosen because it can simulate the model with limited data. The study area is Komering watershed (806,001 Ha) in South Sumatera Province. There are two factors land management intervention: 1) land with agriculture, and 2) land with cultivation. These factors selected in accordance with the regulations of spatial plan area. Application of the SWAT demonstrated that the model can predict surface runoff, soil erosion loss and sediment yield. The erosion risk for each watershed can be classified and predicted its changes based on the scenarios which arranged. In this paper, we also discussed the relationship between the distribution of erosion risk and watershed's characteristics in a spatial perspective.

  15. Assessing the Water-Resources Potential of Istanbul by Using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Hydrological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gokhan Cuceloglu


    Full Text Available Uncertainties due to climate change and population growth have created a critical situation for many megacities. Investigating spatio-temporal variability of water resources is, therefore, a critical initial step for water-resource management. This paper is a first study on the evaluation of water-budget components of water resources in Istanbul using a high-resolution hydrological model. In this work, the water resources of Istanbul and surrounding watersheds were modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, which is a continuous-time, semi-distributed, process-based model. The SWAT-CUP program was used for calibration/validation of the model with uncertainty analysis using the SUFI-2 algorithm over the period 1977–2013 at 25 gauge stations. The results reveal that the annual blue-water potential of Istanbul is 3.5 billion m3, whereas the green-water flow and storage are 2.9 billion m3 and 0.7 billion m3, respectively. Watersheds located on the Asian side of the Istanbul megacity yield more blue-water resources compared to the European side, and constitute 75% of the total potential water resources. The model highlights the water potential of the city under current circumstances and gives an insight into its spatial distribution over the region. This study provides a strong basis for forthcoming studies concerning better water-resources management practices, climate change and water-quality studies, as well as other socio-economic scenario analyses in the region.

  16. Integrated modeling approach using SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source loading and in-stream conditions of fecal indicator bacteria. (United States)

    Ranatunga, T.


    Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is generally a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria (E.coli) source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads were input to the SWAT model in order to simulate the transport through the land and in-stream conditions. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on H-GAC's regional land use, population and household projections (up to 2040). Based on the in-stream reductions required to meet the water quality standards, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

  17. Impact of Uncertainty in SWAT Model Simulations on Consequent Decisions on Optimal Crop Management Practices (United States)

    Krishnan, N.; Sudheer, K. P.; Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.


    The diminishing quantities of non-renewable forms of energy have caused an increasing interest in the renewable sources of energy, such as biofuel, in the recent years. However, the demand for biofuel has created a concern for allocating grain between the fuel and food industry. Consequently, appropriate regulations that limit grain based ethanol production have been developed and are put to practice, which resulted in cultivating perennial grasses like Switch grass and Miscanthus to meet the additional cellulose demand. A change in cropping and management practice, therefore, is essential to cater the conflicting requirement for food and biofuel, which has a long-term impact on the downstream water quality. Therefore it is essential to implement optimal cropping practices to reduce the pollutant loadings. Simulation models in conjunction with optimization procedures are useful in developing efficient cropping practices in such situations. One such model is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which can simulate both the water and the nutrient cycle, as well as quantify long-term impacts of changes in management practice in the watershed. It is envisaged that the SWAT model, along with an optimization algorithm, can be used to identify the optimal cropping pattern that achieves the minimum guaranteed grain production with less downstream pollution, while maximizing the biomass production for biofuel generation. However, the SWAT simulations do have a certain level of uncertainty that needs to be accounted for before making decisions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are twofold: (i) to understand how model uncertainties influence decision-making, and (ii) to develop appropriate management scenarios that account the uncertainty. The simulation uncertainty of the SWAT model is assessed using Shuffled Complex Evolutionary Metropolis Algorithm (SCEM). With the data collected from St. Joseph basin, IN, USA, the preliminary results indicate that model

  18. An Assessment of Mean Areal Precipitation Methods on Simulated Stream Flow: A SWAT Model Performance Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Zeiger


    Full Text Available Accurate mean areal precipitation (MAP estimates are essential input forcings for hydrologic models. However, the selection of the most accurate method to estimate MAP can be daunting because there are numerous methods to choose from (e.g., proximate gauge, direct weighted average, surface-fitting, and remotely sensed methods. Multiple methods (n = 19 were used to estimate MAP with precipitation data from 11 distributed monitoring sites, and 4 remotely sensed data sets. Each method was validated against the hydrologic model simulated stream flow using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. SWAT was validated using a split-site method and the observed stream flow data from five nested-scale gauging sites in a mixed-land-use watershed of the central USA. Cross-validation results showed the error associated with surface-fitting and remotely sensed methods ranging from −4.5 to −5.1%, and −9.8 to −14.7%, respectively. Split-site validation results showed the percent bias (PBIAS values that ranged from −4.5 to −160%. Second order polynomial functions especially overestimated precipitation and subsequent stream flow simulations (PBIAS = −160 in the headwaters. The results indicated that using an inverse-distance weighted, linear polynomial interpolation or multiquadric function method to estimate MAP may improve SWAT model simulations. Collectively, the results highlight the importance of spatially distributed observed hydroclimate data for precipitation and subsequent steam flow estimations. The MAP methods demonstrated in the current work can be used to reduce hydrologic model uncertainty caused by watershed physiographic differences.

  19. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan


    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...

  20. Global sensitivity analysis of a SWAT model: comparison of the variance-based and moment-independent approaches (United States)

    Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Sarrazin, Fanny; Nossent, Jiri; Pianosi, Francesca; van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten; Bauwens, Willy


    Uncertainty in parameters is a well-known reason of model output uncertainty which, undermines model reliability and restricts model application. A large number of parameters, in addition to the lack of data, limits calibration efficiency and also leads to higher parameter uncertainty. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of mathematical techniques that provides quantitative information about the contribution of different sources of uncertainties (e.g. model parameters) to the model output uncertainty. Therefore, identifying influential and non-influential parameters using GSA can improve model calibration efficiency and consequently reduce model uncertainty. In this paper, moment-independent density-based GSA methods that consider the entire model output distribution - i.e. Probability Density Function (PDF) or Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) - are compared with the widely-used variance-based method and their differences are discussed. Moreover, the effect of model output definition on parameter ranking results is investigated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and model bias as example outputs. To this end, 26 flow parameters of a SWAT model of the River Zenne (Belgium) are analysed. In order to assess the robustness of the sensitivity indices, bootstrapping is applied and 95% confidence intervals are estimated. The results show that, although the variance-based method is easy to implement and interpret, it provides wider confidence intervals, especially for non-influential parameters, compared to the density-based methods. Therefore, density-based methods may be a useful complement to variance-based methods for identifying non-influential parameters.

  1. Application of SWAT-HS, a lumped hillslope model to simulate hydrology in the Cannonsville Reservoir watershed, New York (United States)

    Hoang, Linh; Schneiderman, Elliot; Mukundan, Rajith; Moore, Karen; Owens, Emmet; Steenhuis, Tammo


    Surface runoff is the primary mechanism transporting substances such as sediments, agricultural chemicals, and pathogens to receiving waters. In order to predict runoff and pollutant fluxes, and to evaluate management practices, it is essential to accurately predict the areas generating surface runoff, which depend on the type of runoff: infiltration-excess runoff and saturation-excess runoff. The watershed of Cannonsville reservoir is part of the New York City water supply system that provides high quality drinking water to nine million people in New York City (NYC) and nearby communities. Previous research identified saturation-excess runoff as the dominant runoff mechanism in this region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a promising tool to simulate the NYC watershed given its broad application and good performance in many watersheds with different scales worldwide, for its ability to model water quality responses, and to evaluate the effect of management practices on water quality at the watershed scale. However, SWAT predicts runoff based mainly on soil and land use characteristics, and implicitly considers only infiltration-excess runoff. Therefore, we developed a modified version of SWAT, referred to as SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS), which explicitly simulates saturation-excess runoff by redefining Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) based on wetness classes with varying soil water storage capacities, and by introducing a surface aquifer with the ability to route interflow from "drier" to "wetter" wetness classes. SWAT-HS was first tested at Town Brook, a 37 km2 headwater watershed draining to the Cannonsville reservoir using a single sub-basin for the whole watershed. SWAT-HS performed well, and predicted streamflow yielded Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.68 and 0.87 at the daily and monthly time steps, respectively. More importantly, it predicted the spatial distribution of saturated areas accurately. Based on the good performance in the Town Brook

  2. User's guide for simulation of waste treatment (SWAT) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macal, C.M.


    This document is a user's guide for the Simulation of Waste Treatment (SWAT) model computer code. (A detailed description of the logic and assumptions of the model was published previously.) A flow diagram depicting the logic of the SWAT computer code is included. Several river basins or regions can be simulated in a single computer run, with each region having numerous treatment plants. Treatment plants are simulated sequentially to reduce computer storage requirements. All input to the model is in the form of cards and all output is to a line printer. The code is written in FORTRAN IV and consists of approximately 3000 statements. Using the IBM 370/195 under OS, a Gl compiler requires a region of 220K. Execution time is under two minutes for a typical run for a river basin with 23 treatment plants, with each plant having an average of one technology modification over a simulation period of 25 years. In the first section of this report a brief description of the subroutines in the model is given along with an explanation of how the subroutines function in the context of the whole program. The third section indicates formatting for input data; sample input data for a test problem are also presented. Section 4 describes the output resulting from the sample input data. A program listing appears in the appendix.

  3. Modeling seasonal variability of fecal coliform in natural surface waters using the modified SWAT (United States)

    Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; Kim, Minjeong; Pyo, JongCheol; Park, Mi-Hyun; Kim, Young Mo; Kim, Jung-Woo; Kim, Joon Ha


    Fecal coliforms are indicators of pathogens and thereby, understanding of their fate and transport in surface waters is important to protect drinking water sources and public health. We compiled fecal coliform observations from four different sites in the USA and Korea and found a seasonal variability with a significant connection to temperature levels. In all observations, fecal coliform concentrations were relatively higher in summer and lower during the winter season. This could be explained by the seasonal dominance of growth or die-off of bacteria in soil and in-stream. Existing hydrologic models, however, have limitations in simulating the seasonal variability of fecal coliform. Soil and in-stream bacterial modules of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model are oversimplified in that they exclude simulations of alternating bacterial growth. This study develops a new bacteria subroutine for the SWAT in an attempt to improve its prediction accuracy. We introduced critical temperatures as a parameter to simulate the onset of bacterial growth/die-off and to reproduce the seasonal variability of bacteria. The module developed in this study will improve modeling for environmental management schemes.

  4. GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological modeling tools have been increasingly used worldwide in the management of water resources at watershed level. The application of these tools have been improved in recent time through the advent of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques which enhance the use of spatially ...

  5. Calibrated Properties Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    H. H. Liu


    This report has documented the methodologies and the data used for developing rock property sets for three infiltration maps. Model calibration is necessary to obtain parameter values appropriate for the scale of the process being modeled. Although some hydrogeologic property data (prior information) are available, these data cannot be directly used to predict flow and transport processes because they were measured on scales smaller than those characterizing property distributions in models used for the prediction. Since model calibrations were done directly on the scales of interest, the upscaling issue was automatically considered. On the other hand, joint use of data and the prior information in inversions can further increase the reliability of the developed parameters compared with those for the prior information. Rock parameter sets were developed for both the mountain and drift scales because of the scale-dependent behavior of fracture permeability. Note that these parameter sets, except those for faults, were determined using the 1-D simulations. Therefore, they cannot be directly used for modeling lateral flow because of perched water in the unsaturated zone (UZ) of Yucca Mountain. Further calibration may be needed for two- and three-dimensional modeling studies. As discussed above in Section 6.4, uncertainties for these calibrated properties are difficult to accurately determine, because of the inaccuracy of simplified methods for this complex problem or the extremely large computational expense of more rigorous methods. One estimate of uncertainty that may be useful to investigators using these properties is the uncertainty used for the prior information. In most cases, the inversions did not change the properties very much with respect to the prior information. The Output DTNs (including the input and output files for all runs) from this study are given in Section 9.4.

  6. Quantifying the Uncertainty in Streamflow Predictions Using Swat for Brazos-Colorado Coastal Watershed, Texas (United States)

    Mandal, D.; Bhatia, N.; Srivastav, R. K.


    Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most comprehensive hydrologic models to simulate streamflow for a watershed. The two major inputs for a SWAT model are: (i) Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and (ii) Land Use and Land Cover Maps (LULC). This study aims to quantify the uncertainty in streamflow predictions using SWAT for San Bernard River in Brazos-Colorado coastal watershed, Texas, by incorporating the respective datasets from different sources: (i) DEM data will be obtained from ASTER GDEM V2, GMTED2010, NHD DEM, and SRTM DEM datasets with ranging resolution from 1/3 arc-second to 30 arc-second, and (ii) LULC data will be obtained from GLCC V2, MRLC NLCD2011, NOAA's C-CAP, USGS GAP, and TCEQ databases. Weather variables (Precipitation and Max-Min Temperature at daily scale) will be obtained from National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and SWAT in-built STASGO tool will be used to obtain the soil maps. The SWAT model will be calibrated using SWAT-CUP SUFI-2 approach and its performance will be evaluated using the statistical indices of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), ratio of Root-Mean-Square-Error to standard deviation of observed streamflow (RSR), and Percent-Bias Error (PBIAS). The study will help understand the performance of SWAT model with varying data sources and eventually aid the regional state water boards in planning, designing, and managing hydrologic systems.

  7. Improvement of the R-SWAT-FME framework to support multiple variables and multi-objective functions (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang


    Application of numerical models is a common practice in the environmental field for investigation and prediction of natural and anthropogenic processes. However, process knowledge, parameter identifiability, sensitivity, and uncertainty analyses are still a challenge for large and complex mathematical models such as the hydrological/water quality model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, the previously developed R program language-SWAT-Flexible Modeling Environment (R-SWAT-FME) was improved to support multiple model variables and objectives at multiple time steps (i.e., daily, monthly, and annually). This expansion is significant because there is usually more than one variable (e.g., water, nutrients, and pesticides) of interest for environmental models like SWAT. To further facilitate its easy use, we also simplified its application requirements without compromising its merits, such as the user-friendly interface. To evaluate the performance of the improved framework, we used a case study focusing on both streamflow and nitrate nitrogen in the Upper Iowa River Basin (above Marengo) in the United States. Results indicated that the R-SWAT-FME performs well and is comparable to the built-in auto-calibration tool in multi-objective model calibration. Overall, the enhanced R-SWAT-FME can be useful for the SWAT community, and the methods we used can also be valuable for wrapping potential R packages with other environmental models.

  8. Evalution of Long-Term Impacts of Conservation Practice Within the Little River Watershed Using the SWAT Model (United States)

    The SWAT model was used to simulate the long-term impacts of conservation practices implemented within the South Georgia Little River Watershed on streamflow hydrology and water quality. Typical practices which have been implemented within the watershed include nutrient management, residue manageme...


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sezar Gülbaz


    Full Text Available The land development and increase in urbanization in a watershed affect water quantityand water quality. On one hand, urbanization provokes the adjustment of geomorphicstructure of the streams, ultimately raises peak flow rate which causes flood; on theother hand, it diminishes water quality which results in an increase in Total SuspendedSolid (TSS. Consequently, sediment accumulation in downstream of urban areas isobserved which is not preferred for longer life of dams. In order to overcome thesediment accumulation problem in dams, the amount of TSS in streams and inwatersheds should be taken under control. Low Impact Development (LID is a BestManagement Practice (BMP which may be used for this purpose. It is a land planningand engineering design method which is applied in managing storm water runoff inorder to reduce flooding as well as simultaneously improve water quality. LID includestechniques to predict suspended solid loads in surface runoff generated over imperviousurban surfaces. In this study, the impact of LID-BMPs on surface runoff and TSS isinvestigated by employing a calibrated hydrodynamic model for Sazlidere Watershedwhich is located in Istanbul, Turkey. For this purpose, a calibrated hydrodynamicmodel was developed by using Environmental Protection Agency Storm WaterManagement Model (EPA SWMM. For model calibration and validation, we set up arain gauge and a flow meter into the field and obtain rainfall and flow rate data. Andthen, we select several LID types such as retention basins, vegetative swales andpermeable pavement and we obtain their influence on peak flow rate and pollutantbuildup and washoff for TSS. Consequently, we observe the possible effects ofLID on surface runoff and TSS in Sazlidere Watershed.

  10. SURF Model Calibration Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menikoff, Ralph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    SURF and SURFplus are high explosive reactive burn models for shock initiation and propagation of detonation waves. They are engineering models motivated by the ignition & growth concept of high spots and for SURFplus a second slow reaction for the energy release from carbon clustering. A key feature of the SURF model is that there is a partial decoupling between model parameters and detonation properties. This enables reduced sets of independent parameters to be calibrated sequentially for the initiation and propagation regimes. Here we focus on a methodology for tting the initiation parameters to Pop plot data based on 1-D simulations to compute a numerical Pop plot. In addition, the strategy for tting the remaining parameters for the propagation regime and failure diameter is discussed.

  11. Pesticide transport to tile-drained fields in SWAT model – macropore flow and sediment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte


    as a fraction of effective rainfall and transported to the tile drains directly. Macropore sediment transport is calculated similarly to the MACRO model (Jarvis et al., 1999). Mobile pesticide transport is calculated with a decay function with the flow, whereas sorbed pesticides transport is associated......Preferential flow and colloidal facilitated transport via macopores connected to tile drains are the main pathways for pesticide transport from agricultural areas to surface waters in some area. We developed a macropore flow module and a sediment transport module for the Soil and Water Assessment...... Tool (SWAT) to simulate transport of both mobile (e.g. Bentazon) and strongly sorbed (e.g. Diuron) pesticides in tile drains. Macropore flow is initiated when soil water content exceeds a threshold and rainfall intensity exceeds infiltration capacity. The amount of macropore flow is calculated...

  12. Sediment trapping analysis of flood control reservoirs in Upstream Ciliwung River using SWAT Model (United States)

    Rofiq Ginanjar, Mirwan; Putra, Santosa Sandy


    The plans of Sukamahi dam and Ciawi dam construction for Jakarta flood risk reduction purpose had been proposed as feasible solutions to be implemented. However, the risk of the dam outlets clogging, caused by the sediment, is important to be anticipated. The prediction of the max sediment concentration in the reservoir is crucial for the dam operation planning. It is important to avoid the flood outlet tunnel clogging. This paper present a hydrologic sediment budget model of The Upstream Ciliwung River Basin, with flood control dam existence scenarios. The model was constructed within SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) plugin and run inside the QGIS framework. The free hydrological data from CFSR, soil data from FAO, and topographical data from CGIAR-CSI were implemented as the model input. The model resulted the sediment concentration dynamics of the Sukamahi and Ciawi reservoirs, on some suspended sediment parameter ranges. The sediment trapping efficiency was also computed by different possible dam capacity alternatives. The research findings will give a scientific decision making base for the river authority, in term of flood control dam planning, especially in The Upstream Ciliwung River Basin.

  13. Evaluation of existing and modified wetland equations in the SWAT model (United States)

    The drainage significantly alters flow and nutrient pathways in small watersheds and reliable simulation at this scale is needed for effective planning of nutrient reduction strategies. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been widely utilized for prediction of flow and nutrient loads, but...

  14. Modelling land use change across elevation gradients in district Swat, Pakistan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qasim, M.; Termansen, M.; Hubacek, K.; Fleskens, L.


    District Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Documentation and analysis of land use change in this region is challenging due to very disparate accounts of the state of forest resources and limited accessible data. Such analysis is, however, important due to

  15. Improving SWAT model performance in the upper Blue Nile Basin using meteorological data integration and subcatchment discretization (United States)

    Polanco, Erwin Isaac; Fleifle, Amr; Ludwig, Ralf; Disse, Markus


    The Blue Nile Basin is confronted by land degradation problems, insufficient agricultural production, and a limited number of developed energy sources. Hydrological models provide useful tools to better understand such complex systems and improve water resources and land management practices. In this study, SWAT was used to model the hydrological processes in the upper Blue Nile Basin. Comparisons between a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a conventional ground weather dataset were done under two sub-basin discretization levels (30 and 87 sub-basins) to create an integrated dataset to improve the spatial and temporal limitations of both datasets. A SWAT error index (SEI) was also proposed to compare the reliability of the models under different discretization levels and weather datasets. This index offers an assessment of the model quality based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. SEI demonstrates to be a reliable additional and useful method to measure the level of error of SWAT. The results showed the discrepancies of using different weather datasets with different sub-basin discretization levels. Datasets under 30 sub-basins achieved Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) values of -0.51, 0.74, and 0.84; p factors of 0.53, 0.66, and 0.70; and r factors of 1.11, 0.83, and 0.67 for the CFSR, ground, and integrated datasets, respectively. Meanwhile, models under 87 sub-basins achieved NS values of -1.54, 0.43, and 0.80; p factors of 0.36, 0.67, and 0.77; r factors of 0.93, 0.68, and 0.54 for the CFSR, ground, and integrated datasets, respectively. Based on the obtained statistical results, the integrated dataset provides a better model of the upper Blue Nile Basin.

  16. Model Calibration in Option Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre Loerx


    Full Text Available We consider calibration problems for models of pricing derivatives which occur in mathematical finance. We discuss various approaches such as using stochastic differential equations or partial differential equations for the modeling process. We discuss the development in the past literature and give an outlook into modern approaches of modelling. Furthermore, we address important numerical issues in the valuation of options and likewise the calibration of these models. This leads to interesting problems in optimization, where, e.g., the use of adjoint equations or the choice of the parametrization for the model parameters play an important role.

  17. Development and application of SWAT to paddy rice district at watershed scale (United States)

    Shi, Yuzhi; Zhang, Chi; Zhou, Huicheng


    In irrigation district, especially in paddy rice fields, agricultural irrigation water use has a great influence on the natural water cycle process at watershed scale. In this study, SWAT model was modified to simulate irrigation water demand and quantify the irrigation return flow coefficient and the irrigation impact coefficient in paddy rice fields. Due to the lack of irrigation observed data, a multi-water source module was add to SWAT to build several feasible extraction scenarios, and a new algorithm of automatic irrigation application was implemented too. According to the simulation accuracy, the optimal scenario was selected to use in the new SWAT model, and then was applied to Changge Irrigation District in Hulan River Basin, northeast China. Comparisons between the enhanced model and old one were conducted at outlet cite, sifangtai. The results showed that the proposed SWAT has higher precision during calibration and validation periods, Nash coefficient of the simulated monthly flow was from 0.74 and 0.69 to 0.88 and 0.80 respectively. in addition, the annual averaged irrigation water and return water were 78 million m3 and 41 million m3, the irrigation return flow coefficient was 0.52, average consumption of irrigation water accounted for 10% of the total runoff. In general, the developed model had been greatly improved as compared to original model. Keywords: SWAT model, hydrological modeling, rice, irrigation return flow coefficient, irrigation impact coefficient

  18. A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. M. Easton


    Full Text Available A multi basin analysis of runoff and erosion in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia was conducted to elucidate sources of runoff and sediment. Erosion is arguably the most critical problem in the Blue Nile Basin, as it limits agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, degrades benthos in the Nile, and results in sedimentation of dams in downstream countries. A modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was developed to predict runoff and sediment losses from the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. The model simulates saturation excess runoff from the landscape using a simple daily water balance coupled to a topographic wetness index in ways that are consistent with observed runoff processes in the basin. The spatial distribution of landscape erosion is thus simulated more correctly. The model was parameterized in a nested design for flow at eight and sediment at three locations in the basin. Subbasins ranged in size from 1.3 to 174 000 km2, and interestingly, the partitioning of runoff and infiltrating flow could be predicted by topographic information. Model predictions showed reasonable accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranged from 0.53–0.92 with measured data across all sites except Kessie, where the water budget could not be closed; however, the timing of flow was well captured. Runoff losses increased with rainfall during the monsoonal season and were greatest from areas with shallow soils and large contributing areas. Analysis of model results indicate that upland landscape erosion dominated sediment delivery to the main stem of the Blue Nile in the early part of the growing season when tillage occurs and before the soil was wetted up and plant cover was established. Once plant cover was established in mid August landscape erosion was negligible and sediment export was dominated by channel processes and re-suspension of landscape sediment deposited early in the growing season. These results imply that targeting small

  19. Spatial multiobjective optimization of agricultural conservation practices using a SWAT model and an evolutionary algorithm. (United States)

    Rabotyagov, Sergey; Campbell, Todd; Valcu, Adriana; Gassman, Philip; Jha, Manoj; Schilling, Keith; Wolter, Calvin; Kling, Catherine


    Finding the cost-efficient (i.e., lowest-cost) ways of targeting conservation practice investments for the achievement of specific water quality goals across the landscape is of primary importance in watershed management. Traditional economics methods of finding the lowest-cost solution in the watershed context (e.g.,(5,12,20)) assume that off-site impacts can be accurately described as a proportion of on-site pollution generated. Such approaches are unlikely to be representative of the actual pollution process in a watershed, where the impacts of polluting sources are often determined by complex biophysical processes. The use of modern physically-based, spatially distributed hydrologic simulation models allows for a greater degree of realism in terms of process representation but requires a development of a simulation-optimization framework where the model becomes an integral part of optimization. Evolutionary algorithms appear to be a particularly useful optimization tool, able to deal with the combinatorial nature of a watershed simulation-optimization problem and allowing the use of the full water quality model. Evolutionary algorithms treat a particular spatial allocation of conservation practices in a watershed as a candidate solution and utilize sets (populations) of candidate solutions iteratively applying stochastic operators of selection, recombination, and mutation to find improvements with respect to the optimization objectives. The optimization objectives in this case are to minimize nonpoint-source pollution in the watershed, simultaneously minimizing the cost of conservation practices. A recent and expanding set of research is attempting to use similar methods and integrates water quality models with broadly defined evolutionary optimization methods(3,4,9,10,13-15,17-19,22,23,25). In this application, we demonstrate a program which follows Rabotyagov et al.'s approach and integrates a modern and commonly used SWAT water quality model(7) with a

  20. Model Calibration for Ship Simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    E.F.G. van Daalen (Ed); J. Fehribach; T. van Leeuwen (Tristan); C. Reinhardt; N. Schenkels; R. Sheombarsing


    htmlabstractModel calibration is an important aspect in ship simulation. Here, ship motion is described by an ODE which includes tuning parameters that capture complex physical processes such as friction of the hull. In order for the simulations to be realistic for a wide range of

  1. Model Calibration for Ship Simulations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Daalen, Ed; Fehribach, Joseph; van Leeuwen, Tristan; Reinhardt, Christian; Schenkels, Nick; Sheombarsing, Ray


    Model calibration is an important aspect in ship simulation. Here, ship motion is described by an ODE which includes tuning parameters that capture complex physical processes such as friction of the hull. In order for the simulations to be realistic for a wide range of scenarios these tuning

  2. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)


    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  3. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology (United States)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh


    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  4. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin (United States)

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  5. Runoff Simulation in the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin Based on the RIEMS–SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songbing Zou


    Full Text Available In the distributed hydrological simulations for complex mountain areas, large amounts of meteorological input parameters with high spatial and temporal resolutions are necessary. However, the extreme scarcity and uneven distribution of the traditional meteorological observation stations in cold and arid regions of Northwest China makes it very difficult in meeting the requirements of hydrological simulations. Alternatively, regional climate models (RCMs, which can provide a variety of distributed meteorological data with high temporal and spatial resolution, have become an effective solution to improve hydrological simulation accuracy and to further study water resource responses to human activities and global climate change. In this study, abundant and evenly distributed virtual weather stations in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB of Northwest China were built for the optimization of the input data, and thus a regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS based on RCM and a distributed hydrological model of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT were integrated as a coupled climate–hydrological RIEMS-SWAT model, which was applied to simulate monthly runoff from 1995 to 2010 in the region. Results show that the simulated and observed values are close; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency is higher than 0.65; determination coefficient (R2 values are higher than 0.70; percent bias is controlled within ±20%; and root-mean-square-error-observation standard deviation ratio is less than 0.65. These results indicate that the coupled model can present basin hydrological processes properly, and provide scientific support for prediction and management of basin water resources.

  6. Improving model prediction reliability through enhanced representation of wetland soil processes and constrained model auto calibration - A paired watershed study (United States)

    Sharifi, Amirreza; Lang, Megan W.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Lee, Sangchul; Yen, Haw; Rabenhorst, Martin C.; Jeong, Jaehak; Yeo, In-Young


    Process based, distributed watershed models possess a large number of parameters that are not directly measured in field and need to be calibrated, in most cases through matching modeled in-stream fluxes with monitored data. Recently, concern has been raised regarding the reliability of this common calibration practice, because models that are deemed to be adequately calibrated based on commonly used metrics (e.g., Nash Sutcliffe efficiency) may not realistically represent intra-watershed responses or fluxes. Such shortcomings stem from the use of an evaluation criteria that only concerns the global in-stream responses of the model without investigating intra-watershed responses. In this study, we introduce a modification to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, and a new calibration technique that collectively reduce the chance of misrepresenting intra-watershed responses. The SWAT model was modified to better represent NO3 cycling in soils with various degrees of water holding capacity. The new calibration tool has the capacity to calibrate paired watersheds simultaneously within a single framework. It was found that when both proposed methodologies were applied jointly to two paired watersheds on the Delmarva Peninsula, the performance of the models as judged based on conventional metrics suffered, however, the intra-watershed responses (e.g., mass of NO3 lost to denitrification) in the two models automatically converged to realistic sums. This approach also demonstrates the capacity to spatially distinguish areas of high denitrification potential, an ability that has implications for improved management of prior converted wetlands under crop production and for identifying prominent areas for wetland restoration.

  7. Comparison of SWAT and GeoWEPP model in predicting the impact of stone bunds on runoff and erosion processes in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands (United States)

    Demelash, Nigus; Flagler, Jared; Renschler, Chris; Strohmeier, Stefan; Holzmann, Hubert; Feras, Ziadat; Addis, Hailu; Zucca, Claudio; Bayu, Wondimu; Klik, Andreas


    Soil degradation is a major issue in the Ethiopian highlands which are most suitable for agriculture and, therefore, support a major part of human population and livestock. Heavy rainstorms during the rainy season in summer create soil erosion and runoff processes which affect soil fertility and food security. In the last years programs for soil conservation and afforestation were initiated by the Ethiopian government to reduce erosion risk, retain water in the landscape and improve crop yields. The study was done in two adjacent watersheds in the Northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. One of the watersheds is developed by soil and water conservation structures (stone bunds) in 2011 and the other one is without soil and water conservation structures. Spatial distribution of soil textures and other soil properties were determined in the field and in the laboratory and a soil map was derived. A land use map was evaluated based on satellite images and ground truth data. A Digital Elevation Model of the watershed was developed based on conventional terrestrial surveying using a total station. At the outlet of the watersheds weirs with cameras were installed to measure surface runoff. During each event runoff samples were collected and sediment concentration was analyzed. The objective of this study is 1) to assess the impact of stone bunds on runoff and erosion processes by using simulation models, and 2) to compare the performance of two soil erosion models in predicting the measurements. The selected erosion models were the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Geospatial Interface to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP). The simulation models were calibrated/verified for the 2011-2013 periods and validated with 2014-2015 data. Results of this comparison will be presented.

  8. Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Hanh Nguyen


    Full Text Available To assist water resource managers with future land use planning efforts, the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was applied to three catchments in South Australia that experience extreme low flow conditions. Particular land uses and management issues of interest included forest covers, known to affect water yields, and farm dams, known to intercept and change the hydrological dynamics in a catchment. The study achieved a satisfactory daily calibration when irrigation farm dams were incorporated in the model. For the catchment dominated by extreme low flows, a better daily simulation across a range of qualitative and quantitative metrics was gained using the base-flow static threshold optimization technique. Scenario analysis on effects of forest cover indicated an increase of surface flow and a reduction of base-flow when native eucalyptus lands were replaced by pastures and vice versa. A decreasing trend was observed for the overall water yield of catchments with more forest plantation due to the higher evapotranspiration (ET rate and the decline in surface flow. With regards to effects of irrigation farm dams, assessment on a daily time step suggested that a significant volume of water is stored in these systems with the water loss rate highest in June and July. On an annual basis, the model indicated that approximately 13.1% to 22.0% of water has been captured by farm dams for irrigation. However, the scenario analysis revealed that the purposes of use of farm dams rather than their volumetric capacities in the catchment determined the magnitude of effects on streamflows. Water extracted from farm dams for irrigation of orchards and vineyards are more likely to diminish streamflows than other land uses. Outputs from this study suggest that the water use restrictions from farm dams during recent drought periods were an effective tool to minimize impacts on streamflows.

  9. Calibration and simulation of Heston model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrázek Milan


    Full Text Available We calibrate Heston stochastic volatility model to real market data using several optimization techniques. We compare both global and local optimizers for different weights showing remarkable differences even for data (DAX options from two consecutive days. We provide a novel calibration procedure that incorporates the usage of approximation formula and outperforms significantly other existing calibration methods.

  10. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir


    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

  11. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir


    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

  12. Evaluation of drought impact on groundwater recharge rate using SWAT and Hydrus models on an agricultural island in western Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jin


    Full Text Available Clarifying the variations of groundwater recharge response to a changing non-stationary hydrological process is important for efficiently managing groundwater resources, particularly in regions with limited precipitation that face the risk of water shortage. However, the rate of aquifer recharge is difficult to evaluate in terms of large annual-variations and frequency of flood events. In our research, we attempt to simulate related groundwater recharge processes under variable climate conditions using the SWAT Model, and validate the groundwater recharge using the Hydrus Model. The results show that annual average groundwater recharge comprised approximately 33% of total precipitation, however, larger variation was found for groundwater recharge and surface runoff compared to evapotranspiration, which fluctuated with annual precipitation variations. The annual variation of groundwater resources is shown to be related to precipitation. In spatial variations, the upstream is the main surface water discharge area; the middle and downstream areas are the main groundwater recharge areas. Validation by the Hydrus Model shows that the estimated and simulated groundwater levels are consistent in our research area. The groundwater level shows a quick response to the groundwater recharge rate. The rainfall intensity had a great impact on the changes of the groundwater level. Consequently, it was estimated that large spatial and temporal variation of the groundwater recharge rate would be affected by precipitation uncertainty in future.

  13. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model. (United States)

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas


    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Model on a small tropical island (Great River Watershed, Jamaica as a tool in Integrated Watershed and Coastal Zone Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orville P. Grey


    Full Text Available The Great River Watershed, located in north-west Jamaica, is critical for development, particularly for housing, tourism, agriculture, and mining. It is a source of sediment and nutrient loading to the coastal environment including the Montego Bay Marine Park. We produced a modeling framework using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and GIS. The calculated model performance statistics for high flow discharge yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE value of 0.68 and a R² value of 0.70 suggesting good measured and simulated (calibrated discharge correlation. Calibration and validation results for streamflow were similar to the observed streamflows. For the dry season the simulated urban landuse scenario predicted an increase in surface runoff in excess of 150%. During the wet season it is predicted to range from 98 to 234% presenting a significant risk of flooding, erosion and other environmental issues. The model should be used for the remaining 25 watersheds in Jamaica and elsewhere in the Caribbean. The models suggests that projected landuse changes will have serious impacts on available water (streamflow, stream health, potable water treatment, flooding and sensitive coastal ecosystems.

  15. Macrophyte growth module for the SWAT model – impact of climate change and management on stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Erfurt, Jytte

    To access how multiple stressors affect the water quantity and quality and stream ecology at catchment scale under various management and climate change scenarios, we implemented macrophyte growth modules for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2012 (SWAT). The macrophyte growth module ori...

  16. Error-in-variables models in calibration (United States)

    Lira, I.; Grientschnig, D.


    In many calibration operations, the stimuli applied to the measuring system or instrument under test are derived from measurement standards whose values may be considered to be perfectly known. In that case, it is assumed that calibration uncertainty arises solely from inexact measurement of the responses, from imperfect control of the calibration process and from the possible inaccuracy of the calibration model. However, the premise that the stimuli are completely known is never strictly fulfilled and in some instances it may be grossly inadequate. Then, error-in-variables (EIV) regression models have to be employed. In metrology, these models have been approached mostly from the frequentist perspective. In contrast, not much guidance is available on their Bayesian analysis. In this paper, we first present a brief summary of the conventional statistical techniques that have been developed to deal with EIV models in calibration. We then proceed to discuss the alternative Bayesian framework under some simplifying assumptions. Through a detailed example about the calibration of an instrument for measuring flow rates, we provide advice on how the user of the calibration function should employ the latter framework for inferring the stimulus acting on the calibrated device when, in use, a certain response is measured.

  17. Multiple-response Bayesian calibration of watershed water quality models with significant input and model structure errors (United States)

    Han, Feng; Zheng, Yi


    While watershed water quality (WWQ) models have been widely used to support water quality management, their profound modeling uncertainty remains an unaddressed issue. Data assimilation via Bayesian calibration is a promising solution to the uncertainty, but has been rarely practiced for WWQ modeling. This study applied multiple-response Bayesian calibration (MRBC) to SWAT, a classic WWQ model, using the nitrate pollution in the Newport Bay Watershed (southern California, USA) as the study case. How typical input and model structure errors would impact modeling uncertainty, parameter identification and management decision-making was systematically investigated through both synthetic and real-situation modeling cases. The main study findings include: (1) with an efficient sampling scheme, MRBC is applicable to WWQ modeling in characterizing its parametric and predictive uncertainties; (2) incorporating hydrology responses, which are less susceptible to input and model structure errors than water quality responses, can improve the Bayesian calibration results and benefit potential modeling-based management decisions; and (3) the value of MRBC to modeling-based decision-making essentially depends on pollution severity, management objective and decision maker's risk tolerance.

  18. Process-based hydrological modeling using SWAT: The effect of permafrost on water resources in the large-scale river catchment Kharaa / Mongolia (United States)

    Hülsmann, L.; Geyer, T.; Karthe, D.; Priess, J.; Schweitzer, C.


    In this study, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to obtain a better understanding of hydrological processes in the semi-arid catchment of the Kharaa River in Northern Mongolia. The transient, physical-based model SWAT was set up using spatial datasets on soil, land use, climate, and stream network provided by the project "IWRM-MoMo" to (i.) simulate the water balance components of the basin and (ii.) to identify potential gaps in the input data. We found that the SWAT model satisfactorily reflects the hydrological processes in the catchment and simulates river runoff as a response to strong rainfall events as well as to snow and ice melt. To obtain correct runoff volumes during spring, permafrost has to be considered. Permafrost-influenced soils constrain water flow in the frozen layer, so that percolation out of the active layer is hampered (Woo 2011). This effect is reproduced in SWAT by assigning an impermeable layer in the subsurface to the areas dominated by permafrost. The simulations indicate that in these regions groundwater resources are limited as a consequence of impermeable ground ice. In addition, groundwater recharge rates in the catchment are generally low due to high evaporation rates (80-90 %). Consequently the base flow contribution is small. Further studies on the estimation of groundwater recharge rates should be carried out, since groundwater is an important resource for water supply. Model results indicate that the non-uniformity of the precipitation distribution was not sufficiently covered by the interpolated input data, so that precipitation and runoff volumes are partially over- or underestimated. Since precipitation defines the overall water availability in river catchments (Baumgartner 1982), additional climate records would considerably improve model outputs. As a consequence of large evapotranspiration losses, discharge as well as groundwater recharge estimates were identified to be highly sensitive to

  19. Critical review of SWAT applications in the upper Nile basin countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. van Griensven


    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is an integrated river basin model that is widely applied within the Nile basin. Up to date, more than 20 peer-reviewed papers describe the use of SWAT for a variety of problems in the upper Nile basin countries, such as erosion modelling, land use and climate change impact modelling and water resources management. The majority of the studies are focused on locations in the tropical highlands in Ethiopia and around Lake Victoria. The popularity of SWAT is attributed to the fact that the tool is freely available and that it is readily applicable through the development of geographic information system (GIS based interfaces and its easy linkage to sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty analysis tools. The online and free availability of basic GIS data that are required for SWAT made its applicability more straightforward even in data-scarce areas. However, the easy use of SWAT may not always lead to appropriate models which is also a consequence of the quality of the available free databases in these regions. In this paper, we aim at critically reviewing the use of SWAT in the context of the modelling purpose and problem descriptions in the tropical highlands of the Nile basin countries. To evaluate the models that are described in journal papers, a number of criteria are used to evaluate the model set-up, model performances, physical representation of the model parameters, and the correctness of the hydrological model balance. On the basis of performance indicators, the majority of the SWAT models were classified as giving satisfactory to very good results. Nevertheless, the hydrological mass balances as reported in several papers contained losses that might not be justified. Several papers also reported the use of unrealistic parameter values. More worrying is that many papers lack this information. For this reason, most of the reported SWAT models have to be evaluated critically. An important gap is

  20. Critical review of the application of SWAT in the upper Nile Basin countries (United States)

    van Griensven, A.; Ndomba, P.; Yalew, S.; Kilonzo, F.


    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological simulation tool that is widely applied within the Nile basin. Up to date, more than 20 peer reviewed papers describe the use of SWAT for a variety of problems in the upper Nile basin countries, such as erosion modeling, land use modeling, climate change impact modeling and water resources management. The majority of the studies are clustered in the tropical highlands in Ethiopia and around Lake Victoria. The popularity of SWAT is attributed to the fact that the tool is freely available and that it is readily applicable through the development of Geographic Information System (GIS) based interfaces and its easy linkage to sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty analysis tools. The online and free availability of basic GIS data that are required for SWAT made its applicability more straight forward even in data scarce areas. However, the easy use of SWAT may not always lead to knowledgeable models. In this paper, we aim at critically reviewing the use of SWAT in the context of the modeling purpose and problem descriptions in the tropical highlands of the Nile Basin countries. A number of criteria are used to evaluate the model set-up, model performances, physical representation of the model parameters, and the correctness of the hydrological model balance. On the basis of performance indicators, the majority of the SWAT models were classified as giving satisfactory to very good results. Nevertheless, the hydrological mass balances as reported in several papers contained losses that might not be justified. Several papers also reported unrealistic parameter values. More worrying is that many papers lack this information. For this reason, it is difficult to give an overall positive evaluation to most of the reported SWAT models. An important gap is the lack of attention that is given to the vegetation and crop processes. None of the papers reported any adaptation to the crop parameters, or any crop related

  1. Integrative systems modeling and multi-objective optimization (United States)

    This presentation presents a number of algorithms, tools, and methods for utilizing multi-objective optimization within integrated systems modeling frameworks. We first present innovative methods using a genetic algorithm to optimally calibrate the VELMA and SWAT ecohydrological ...

  2. Evaluating the SWAT model for a low-gradient forested watershed in coastal South Carolina (United States)

    D.M. Amatya; M.K. Jha.


    Modeling the hydrology of low�]gradient forested watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils of the coastal plain is a challenging task due to complexities in watershed delineation, microtopography, evapotranspiration, runoff generation processes and pathways including flooding and submergence caused by tropical storms, and complexity of vegetation species....

  3. Sensitivity of different satellites gridded data over Brahmaputra Basin byusing Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (United States)

    Paul, S.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Islam, A. S.


    More than half a billion people of India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan are dependent on the water resources of the Brahmaputra river. With climatic and anthropogenic change of this basin region is becoming a cause of concern for future water management and sharing with transboundary riparian nations. To address such issues, robust watershed runoff modeling of the basin is essential. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a widely used semi-distributed watershed model that is capable of analyzing surface runoff, stream flow, water yield, sediment and nutrient transport in a large river basin such as Brahmaputra, but the performance of runoff the model depends on the accuracy of input precipitation datasets. But for a transboundary basin like Brahmaputra, precipitation gauge data from upstream areas is either not available or not accessible to the scientific communities. Satellite rainfall products are very effective where radar datasets are absent and conventional rain gauges are sparse. However, the sensitivity of the SWAT model to different satellite data products as well as hydrologic parameters for the Brahmaputra Basin are largely unknown. Thus in this study, a comparative analysis with different satellite data product has been made to assess the runoff using SWAT model. Here, datafrom three sources: TRMM, APHRDOTIE and GPCP were used as input precipitation satellite data set and ERA-Interim was used as input temperature dataset from 1998 to 2009. The main methods used in modeling the hydrologic processes in SWAT were curve number method for runoff estimating, Penman-Monteith method for PET and Muskingum method for channel routing. Our preliminary results have revealed thatthe TRMM data product is more accurate than APHRODITE and GPCP for runoff analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies for both calibration and validation period from TRMM data are 0.83 and 0.72, respectively.

  4. Algorithm Theory - SWAT 2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    issues of theoretical algorithmics and applications in various fields including graph algorithms, computational geometry, scheduling, approximation algorithms, network algorithms, data storage and manipulation, combinatorics, sorting, searching, online algorithms, optimization, etc.......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th Scandinavian Workshop on Algorithm Theory, SWAT 2006, held in Riga, Latvia, in July 2006. The 36 revised full papers presented together with 3 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 154 submissions. The papers address all...

  5. Impacts of Spatial Climatic Representation on Hydrological Model Calibration and Prediction Uncertainty: A Mountainous Catchment of Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Li


    Full Text Available Sparse climatic observations represent a major challenge for hydrological modeling of mountain catchments with implications for decision-making in water resources management. Employing elevation bands in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SWAT2012-SUFI2 model enabled representation of precipitation and temperature variation with altitude in the Daning river catchment (Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China where meteorological inputs are limited in spatial extent and are derived from observations from relatively low lying locations. Inclusion of elevation bands produced better model performance for 1987–1993 with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE increasing by at least 0.11 prior to calibration. During calibration prediction uncertainty was greatly reduced. With similar R-factors from the earlier calibration iterations, a further 11% of observations were included within the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU compared to the model without elevation bands. For behavioral simulations defined in SWAT calibration using a NSE threshold of 0.3, an additional 3.9% of observations were within the 95PPU while the uncertainty reduced by 7.6% in the model with elevation bands. The calibrated model with elevation bands reproduced observed river discharges with the performance in the calibration period changing to “very good” from “poor” without elevation bands. The output uncertainty of calibrated model with elevation bands was satisfactory, having 85% of flow observations included within the 95PPU. These results clearly demonstrate the requirement to account for orographic effects on precipitation and temperature in hydrological models of mountainous catchments.

  6. Calibration and evaluation of a semi-distributed watershed model of Sub-Saharan Africa using GRACE data (United States)

    Xie, H.; Longuevergne, L.; Ringler, C.; Scanlon, B. R.


    Irrigation development is rapidly expanding in mostly rainfed Sub-Saharan Africa. This expansion underscores the need for a more comprehensive understanding of water resources beyond surface water. Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellites provide valuable information on spatio-temporal variability in water storage. The objective of this study was to calibrate and evaluate a semi-distributed regional-scale hydrologic model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) code for basins in Sub-Saharan Africa using seven-year (July 2002-April 2009) 10-day GRACE data and multi-site river discharge data. The analysis was conducted in a multi-criteria framework. In spite of the uncertainty arising from the tradeoff in optimising model parameters with respect to two non-commensurable criteria defined for two fluxes, SWAT was found to perform well in simulating total water storage variability in most areas of Sub-Saharan Africa, which have semi-arid and sub-humid climates, and that among various water storages represented in SWAT, water storage variations in soil, vadose zone and groundwater are dominant. The study also showed that the simulated total water storage variations tend to have less agreement with GRACE data in arid and equatorial humid regions, and model-based partitioning of total water storage variations into different water storage compartments may be highly uncertain. Thus, future work will be needed for model enhancement in these areas with inferior model fit and for uncertainty reduction in component-wise estimation of water storage variations.

  7. OpenMP-accelerated SWAT simulation using Intel C and FORTRAN compilers: Development and benchmark (United States)

    Ki, Seo Jin; Sugimura, Tak; Kim, Albert S.


    We developed a practical method to accelerate execution of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using open (free) computational resources. The SWAT source code (rev 622) was recompiled using a non-commercial Intel FORTRAN compiler in Ubuntu 12.04 LTS Linux platform, and newly named iOMP-SWAT in this study. GNU utilities of make, gprof, and diff were used to develop the iOMP-SWAT package, profile memory usage, and check identicalness of parallel and serial simulations. Among 302 SWAT subroutines, the slowest routines were identified using GNU gprof, and later modified using Open Multiple Processing (OpenMP) library in an 8-core shared memory system. In addition, a C wrapping function was used to rapidly set large arrays to zero by cross compiling with the original SWAT FORTRAN package. A universal speedup ratio of 2.3 was achieved using input data sets of a large number of hydrological response units. As we specifically focus on acceleration of a single SWAT run, the use of iOMP-SWAT for parameter calibrations will significantly improve the performance of SWAT optimization.

  8. Immune System Model Calibration by Genetic Algorithm

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Presbitero, A.; Krzhizhanovskaya, V.; Mancini, E.; Brands, R.; Sloot, P.


    We aim to develop a mathematical model of the human immune system for advanced individualized healthcare where medication plan is fine-tuned to fit a patient's conditions through monitored biochemical processes. One of the challenges is calibrating model parameters to satisfy existing experimental

  9. Calibration suspended sediment model Markermeer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boderie, P.; Van Kessel, T.; De Boer, G.


    In deze studie is een computermodel voor het Markermeer opgezet, ingeregeld en gevalideerd. Het model beschrijft dynamsch de stroming van water, waterpeilen, golven en slib in het water en in de bodem. Het model is gecalibreerd voorde periode augustus 2007 - april 2008 en gevalideerd voor de periode

  10. Modeling and Calibration of Automatic Guided Vehicle (United States)

    Sawada, Kenji; Tanaka, Kosuke; Shin, Seiichi; Kumagai, Kenji; Yoneda, Hisato

    This paper presents a modeling of an automatic guided vehicle (AGV) to achieve a model-based control. The modeling includes 3 kinds of choices; a choice of input-output data pair from 14 candidate pairs, a choice of system identification technique form 5 candidate techniques, a choice of discrete to continuous transform method from 2 candidate methods. In order to obtain reliable plant models of AGV, an approach for calibration between a statistical model and a physical model is also here. In our approach, the models are combined according to the weight of AGV. As a result, our calibration problem is recast as a nonlinear optimization problem that can be solved by quasi-Newton's method.

  11. Calibrating binary lumped parameter models (United States)

    Morgenstern, Uwe; Stewart, Mike


    Groundwater at its discharge point is a mixture of water from short and long flowlines, and therefore has a distribution of ages rather than a single age. Various transfer functions describe the distribution of ages within the water sample. Lumped parameter models (LPMs), which are mathematical models of water transport based on simplified aquifer geometry and flow configuration can account for such mixing of groundwater of different age, usually representing the age distribution with two parameters, the mean residence time, and the mixing parameter. Simple lumped parameter models can often match well the measured time varying age tracer concentrations, and therefore are a good representation of the groundwater mixing at these sites. Usually a few tracer data (time series and/or multi-tracer) can constrain both parameters. With the building of larger data sets of age tracer data throughout New Zealand, including tritium, SF6, CFCs, and recently Halon-1301, and time series of these tracers, we realised that for a number of wells the groundwater ages using a simple lumped parameter model were inconsistent between the different tracer methods. Contamination or degradation of individual tracers is unlikely because the different tracers show consistent trends over years and decades. This points toward a more complex mixing of groundwaters with different ages for such wells than represented by the simple lumped parameter models. Binary (or compound) mixing models are able to represent a more complex mixing, with mixing of water of two different age distributions. The problem related to these models is that they usually have 5 parameters which makes them data-hungry and therefore difficult to constrain all parameters. Two or more age tracers with different input functions, with multiple measurements over time, can provide the required information to constrain the parameters of the binary mixing model. We obtained excellent results using tritium time series encompassing

  12. SURFplus Model Calibration for PBX 9502

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menikoff, Ralph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    The SURFplus reactive burn model is calibrated for the TATB based explosive PBX 9502 at three initial temperatures; hot (75 C), ambient (23 C) and cold (-55 C). The CJ state depends on the initial temperature due to the variation in the initial density and initial specific energy of the PBX reactants. For the reactants, a porosity model for full density TATB is used. This allows the initial PBX density to be set to its measured value even though the coeffcient of thermal expansion for the TATB and the PBX differ. The PBX products EOS is taken as independent of the initial PBX state. The initial temperature also affects the sensitivity to shock initiation. The model rate parameters are calibrated to Pop plot data, the failure diameter, the limiting detonation speed just above the failure diameters, and curvature effect data for small curvature.

  13. High Accuracy Transistor Compact Model Calibrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hembree, Charles E. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mar, Alan [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robertson, Perry J. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    Typically, transistors are modeled by the application of calibrated nominal and range models. These models consists of differing parameter values that describe the location and the upper and lower limits of a distribution of some transistor characteristic such as current capacity. Correspond- ingly, when using this approach, high degrees of accuracy of the transistor models are not expected since the set of models is a surrogate for a statistical description of the devices. The use of these types of models describes expected performances considering the extremes of process or transistor deviations. In contrast, circuits that have very stringent accuracy requirements require modeling techniques with higher accuracy. Since these accurate models have low error in transistor descriptions, these models can be used to describe part to part variations as well as an accurate description of a single circuit instance. Thus, models that meet these stipulations also enable the calculation of quantifi- cation of margins with respect to a functional threshold and uncertainties in these margins. Given this need, new model high accuracy calibration techniques for bipolar junction transis- tors have been developed and are described in this report.

  14. Objective calibration of numerical weather prediction models (United States)

    Voudouri, A.; Khain, P.; Carmona, I.; Bellprat, O.; Grazzini, F.; Avgoustoglou, E.; Bettems, J. M.; Kaufmann, P.


    Numerical weather prediction (NWP) and climate models use parameterization schemes for physical processes, which often include free or poorly confined parameters. Model developers normally calibrate the values of these parameters subjectively to improve the agreement of forecasts with available observations, a procedure referred as expert tuning. A practicable objective multi-variate calibration method build on a quadratic meta-model (MM), that has been applied for a regional climate model (RCM) has shown to be at least as good as expert tuning. Based on these results, an approach to implement the methodology to an NWP model is presented in this study. Challenges in transferring the methodology from RCM to NWP are not only restricted to the use of higher resolution and different time scales. The sensitivity of the NWP model quality with respect to the model parameter space has to be clarified, as well as optimize the overall procedure, in terms of required amount of computing resources for the calibration of an NWP model. Three free model parameters affecting mainly turbulence parameterization schemes were originally selected with respect to their influence on the variables associated to daily forecasts such as daily minimum and maximum 2 m temperature as well as 24 h accumulated precipitation. Preliminary results indicate that it is both affordable in terms of computer resources and meaningful in terms of improved forecast quality. In addition, the proposed methodology has the advantage of being a replicable procedure that can be applied when an updated model version is launched and/or customize the same model implementation over different climatological areas.

  15. Comparison of performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT 2009 and 2012 in an extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwest (United States)

    Guo, Tian; Gitau, Margaret; Merwade, Venkatesh; Arnold, Jeffrey; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Hirschi, Michael; Engel, Bernard


    Subsurface tile drainage systems are widely used in agricultural watersheds in the Midwestern US and enable the Midwest area to become highly productive agricultural lands, but can also create environmental problems, for example nitrate-N contamination associated with drainage waters. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to model watersheds with tile drainage. SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 provide new tile drainage routines. However, few studies have used these revisions to study tile drainage impacts at both field and watershed scales. Moreover, SWAT2012 revision 645 improved the soil moisture based curve number calculation method, which has not been fully tested. This study used long-term (1991-2003) field site and river station data from the Little Vermilion River (LVR) watershed to evaluate performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT2009 revision 528 (the old routine) and SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 (the new routine). Both the old and new routines provided reasonable but unsatisfactory (NSE sediment and annual corn and soybean yield results from SWAT with the old and new tile drainage routines were compared with observed values. Generally, the new routine provided acceptable simulated tile flow (NSE = 0.48-0.65) and nitrate in tile flow (NSE = 0.48-0.68) for field sites with random pattern tile and constant tile spacing, while the old routine simulated tile flow and nitrate in tile flow results for the field site with constant tile spacing were unacceptable (NSE = 0.00-0.32 and -0.29-0.06, respectively). The new modified curve number calculation method in revision 645 (NSE = 0.50-0.81) better simulated surface runoff than revision 615 (NSE = -0.11-0.49). The calibration provided reasonable parameter sets for the old and new routines in the LVR watershed, and the validation results showed that the new routine has the potential to accurately simulate hydrologic processes in mildly sloped watersheds.

  16. Electroweak Calibration of the Higgs Characterization Model

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva


    I will present the preliminary results of histogram fits using the Higgs Combine histogram fitting package. These fits can be used to estimate the effects of electroweak contributions to the p p -> H mu+ mu- Higgs production channel and calibrate Beyond Standard Model (BSM) simulations which ignore these effects. I will emphasize my findings' significance in the context of other research here at CERN and in the broader world of high energy physics.

  17. SWATMOD-PREP: Graphical user interface for preparing coupled SWAT-modflow simulations (United States)

    This paper presents SWATMOD-Prep, a graphical user interface that couples a SWAT watershed model with a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. The interface is based on a recently published SWAT-MODFLOW code that couples the models via mapping schemes. The spatial layout of SWATMOD-Prep guides the user t...

  18. Validation of Calibrated Energy Models: Common Errors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Germán Ramos Ruiz


    Full Text Available Nowadays, there is growing interest in all the smart technologies that provide us with information and knowledge about the human environment. In the energy field, thanks to the amount of data received from smart meters and devices and the progress made in both energy software and computers, the quality of energy models is gradually improving and, hence, also the suitability of Energy Conservation Measures (ECMs. For this reason, the measurement of the accuracy of building energy models is an important task, because once the model is validated through a calibration procedure, it can be used, for example, to apply and study different strategies to reduce its energy consumption in maintaining human comfort. There are several agencies that have developed guidelines and methodologies to establish a measure of the accuracy of these models, and the most widely recognized are: ASHRAE Guideline 14-2014, the International Performance Measurement and Verification Protocol (IPMVP and the Federal Energy Management Program (FEMP. This article intends to shed light on these validation measurements (uncertainty indices by focusing on the typical mistakes made, as these errors could produce a false belief that the models used are calibrated.

  19. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    P. Dixon


    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM is developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA (see upcoming REV 02 of CRWMS M&O 2000 [153314]), which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model (see BSC 2003 [161530]). The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model; (3) to use inverse modeling to calibrate the SCM and to estimate seepage-relevant, model-related parameters on the drift scale; (4) to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of the derived parameters, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed data and the sensitivity of calculated seepage with respect to the parameters of interest; (5) to characterize the aleatory uncertainty of

  20. Christchurch field data for rockfall model calibration (United States)

    Vick, L.; Glover, J.; Davies, T. R.


    The Canterbury earthquake of 2012-2011 triggered devastating rockfalls in the Port Hills in Christchurch, over 8000 boulders resulted in fatalities and severe building damage. There is a requirement for detailed and defensible rockfall hazard analysis to guide planning decisions in response to these rockfall events, most commonly this is performed with the use of a rockfall model. Calibrating a rockfall model requires a robust data set of past rockfall events. Information of rockfall deposit shape and size should be mapped over the affected area, in addition to information on the dynamics of the rockfall events such as jump heights and velocities of rocks. It is often the case that such information is obtained from expensive rock rolling studies; however the dynamics of an event can be estimated from the runout terrain and impact scars. In this study a calibration of a 3D rigid-body rockfall model was performed based on mapped boulder sizes and shapes over the rockfall affected zones of Christchurch, and estimations of boulder velocities gleaned from rock impact scars of individual trajectories and a high resolution digital terrain model produced following the rockfall events. The impact scars were mapped recording their length and depth of penetration into the loess soil cover of the runout zones. Two methods to estimate the boulder velocities have been applied. The first crudely estimates the velocity based on the vertical free fall potential between the rockfall shadow line and the terrain surface, and a velocity correction factor to account for friction. The second uses the impact scars assuming a parabolic trajectory between rock-ground impacts giving an indication of both jump height and velocity. Maximum runout distances produced a shadow angle of 23° in the area. Applying the first method suggests velocities can reach up to ~26 m s-1 and maxima concentrate in gullies and steep terrain. On average the distance between impact scars was 23 m, from which jump

  1. Thermodynamically consistent model calibration in chemical kinetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goutsias John


    Full Text Available Abstract Background The dynamics of biochemical reaction systems are constrained by the fundamental laws of thermodynamics, which impose well-defined relationships among the reaction rate constants characterizing these systems. Constructing biochemical reaction systems from experimental observations often leads to parameter values that do not satisfy the necessary thermodynamic constraints. This can result in models that are not physically realizable and may lead to inaccurate, or even erroneous, descriptions of cellular function. Results We introduce a thermodynamically consistent model calibration (TCMC method that can be effectively used to provide thermodynamically feasible values for the parameters of an open biochemical reaction system. The proposed method formulates the model calibration problem as a constrained optimization problem that takes thermodynamic constraints (and, if desired, additional non-thermodynamic constraints into account. By calculating thermodynamically feasible values for the kinetic parameters of a well-known model of the EGF/ERK signaling cascade, we demonstrate the qualitative and quantitative significance of imposing thermodynamic constraints on these parameters and the effectiveness of our method for accomplishing this important task. MATLAB software, using the Systems Biology Toolbox 2.1, can be accessed from lab/software.html. An SBML file containing the thermodynamically feasible EGF/ERK signaling cascade model can be found in the BioModels database. Conclusions TCMC is a simple and flexible method for obtaining physically plausible values for the kinetic parameters of open biochemical reaction systems. It can be effectively used to recalculate a thermodynamically consistent set of parameter values for existing thermodynamically infeasible biochemical reaction models of cellular function as well as to estimate thermodynamically feasible values for the parameters of new

  2. Calibrating Treasure Valley Groundwater Model using MODFLOW (United States)

    Hernandez, J.; Tan, K.


    In Idaho, groundwater plays an especially important role in the state. According to the Idaho Department of Environmental Quality, groundwater supplies 95% of the state's drinking water (2011). The USGS estimates that Idaho withdraws 117 million cubic meters (95,000 acre-feet) per year from groundwater sources for domestic usage which includes drinking water. The same report from the USGS also estimates that Idaho withdraws 5,140 million cubic meters (4,170,000 acre-feet) per year from groundwater sources for irrigation usage. Quantifying and managing that resource and estimating groundwater levels in the future is important for a variety of socio-economic reasons. As the population within the Treasure Valley continues to grow, the demand of clean usable groundwater increases. The objective of this study was to develop and calibrate a groundwater model with the purpose of understanding short- and long-term effects of existing and alternative land use scenarios on groundwater changes. Hydrologic simulations were done using the MODFLOW-2000 model. The model was calibrated for predevelopment period by reproducing and comparing groundwater levels of the years before 1925 using steady state boundary conditions representing no change in the land use. Depending on the reliability of the groundwater source, the economic growth of the area can be constrained or allowed to flourish. Mismanagement of the groundwater source can impact its sustainability, quality and could hamper development by increasing operation and maintenance costs. Proper water management is critical because groundwater is such a limited resource.

  3. Automated Calibration For Numerical Models Of Riverflow (United States)

    Fernandez, Betsaida; Kopmann, Rebekka; Oladyshkin, Sergey


    Calibration of numerical models is fundamental since the beginning of all types of hydro system modeling, to approximate the parameters that can mimic the overall system behavior. Thus, an assessment of different deterministic and stochastic optimization methods is undertaken to compare their robustness, computational feasibility, and global search capacity. Also, the uncertainty of the most suitable methods is analyzed. These optimization methods minimize the objective function that comprises synthetic measurements and simulated data. Synthetic measurement data replace the observed data set to guarantee an existing parameter solution. The input data for the objective function derivate from a hydro-morphological dynamics numerical model which represents an 180-degree bend channel. The hydro- morphological numerical model shows a high level of ill-posedness in the mathematical problem. The minimization of the objective function by different candidate methods for optimization indicates a failure in some of the gradient-based methods as Newton Conjugated and BFGS. Others reveal partial convergence, such as Nelder-Mead, Polak und Ribieri, L-BFGS-B, Truncated Newton Conjugated, and Trust-Region Newton Conjugated Gradient. Further ones indicate parameter solutions that range outside the physical limits, such as Levenberg-Marquardt and LeastSquareRoot. Moreover, there is a significant computational demand for genetic optimization methods, such as Differential Evolution and Basin-Hopping, as well as for Brute Force methods. The Deterministic Sequential Least Square Programming and the scholastic Bayes Inference theory methods present the optimal optimization results. keywords: Automated calibration of hydro-morphological dynamic numerical model, Bayesian inference theory, deterministic optimization methods.

  4. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Finsterle


    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM was developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). This Model Report has been revised in response to a comprehensive, regulatory-focused evaluation performed by the Regulatory Integration Team [''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Evaluation of Analysis and Model Reports Supporting the TSPA-LA'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169653])]. The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross-Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA [''Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 167652])], which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model [see ''Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and TH Seepage) Models'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170338])]. The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross-Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross

  5. An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems (United States)

    Alemayehu, Tadesse; van Griensven, Ann; Taddesse Woldegiorgis, Befekadu; Bauwens, Willy


    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a globally applied river basin ecohydrological model used in a wide spectrum of studies, ranging from land use change and climate change impacts studies to research for the development of the best water management practices. However, SWAT has limitations in simulating the seasonal growth cycles for trees and perennial vegetation in the tropics, where rainfall rather than temperature is the dominant plant growth controlling factor. Our goal is to improve the vegetation growth module of SWAT for simulating the vegetation variables - such as the leaf area index (LAI) - for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we present a modified SWAT version for the tropics (SWAT-T) that uses a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI) - a quotient of rainfall (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETr) - to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania) show that the SWAT-T-simulated LAI corresponds well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland. This indicates that the SMI is reliable for triggering a new annual growth cycle. The water balance components (evapotranspiration and streamflow) simulated by the SWAT-T exhibit a good agreement with remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET-RS) and observed streamflow. The SWAT-T model, with the proposed vegetation growth module for tropical ecosystems, can be a robust tool for simulating the vegetation growth dynamics in hydrologic models in tropical regions.

  6. Application of SWAT99.2 to sensitivity analysis of water balance components in unique plots in a hilly region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-feng Dai


    Full Text Available Although many sensitivity analyses using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT in a complex watershed have been conducted, little attention has been paid to the application potential of the model in unique plots. In addition, sensitivity analysis of percolation and evapotranspiration with SWAT has seldom been undertaken. In this study, SWAT99.2 was calibrated to simulate water balance components for unique plots in Southern China from 2000 to 2001, which included surface runoff, percolation, and evapotranspiration. Twenty-one parameters classified into four categories, including meteorological conditions, topographical characteristics, soil properties, and vegetation attributes, were used for sensitivity analysis through one-at-a-time (OAT sampling to identify the factor that contributed most to the variance in water balance components. The results were shown to be different for different plots, with parameter sensitivity indices and ranks varying for different water balance components. Water balance components in the broad-leaved forest and natural grass plots were most sensitive to meteorological conditions, less sensitive to vegetation attributes and soil properties, and least sensitive to topographical characteristics. Compared to those in the natural grass plot, water balance components in the broad-leaved forest plot demonstrated higher sensitivity to the maximum stomatal conductance (GSI and maximum leaf area index (BLAI.

  7. Nonparametric model assisted model calibrated estimation in two ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Nonparametric model assisted model calibrated estimation in two stage survey sampling. RO Otieno, PN Mwita, PN Kihara. Abstract. No Abstract > East African Journal of Statistics Vol. 1 (3) 2007: pp.261-281. Full Text: EMAIL FULL TEXT EMAIL FULL TEXT · DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT DOWNLOAD FULL TEXT.

  8. Case Study: Effect of Climatic Characterization on River Discharge in an Alpine-Prealpine Catchment of the Spanish Pyrenees Using the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leticia Palazón


    Full Text Available The new challenges in assessment of water resources demand new approaches and tools, such as the use of hydrologic models, which could serve to assist managers in the prediction, planning and management of catchment water supplies in view of increased demand of water for irrigation and climatic change. Good characterization of the spatial patterns of climate variables is of paramount importance in hydrological modelling. This is especially so when modelling mountain environments which are characterized by strong altitudinal climate gradients. However, very often there is a poor distribution of climatic stations in these areas, which in many cases, results in under representation of high altitude areas with respect to climatic data. This results in the poor performance of the models. In the present study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to the Barasona reservoir catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees in order to assess the influence of different climatic characterizations in the monthly river discharges. Four simulations with different input data were assessed, using only the available climate data (A1; the former plus one synthetic dataset at a higher altitude (B1; and both plus the altitudinal climate gradient (A2 and B2. The model’s performance was evaluated against the river discharges for the representative periods of 2003–2005 and 1994–1996 by means of commonly used statistical measures. The best results were obtained using the altitudinal climate gradient alone (scenario A2. This study provided insight into the importance of taking into account the sources and the spatial distribution of weather data in modelling water resources in mountainous catchments.

  9. Error Modeling and Calibration for Encoded Sun Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyang Li


    Full Text Available Error factors in the encoded sun sensor (ESS are analyzed and simulated. Based on the analysis results, an ESS error compensation model containing structural errors and fine-code algorithm errors is established, and the corresponding calibration method for model parameters is proposed. As external parameters, installation deviation between ESS and calibration equipment are introduced to the ESS calibration model, so that the model parameters can be calibrated accurately. The experimental results show that within plus/minus 60 degree of incident angle, the ESS measurement accuracy after compensation is three times higher on average than that before compensation.

  10. Determining the importance of model calibration for forecasting absolute/relative changes in streamflow from LULC and climate changes (United States)

    Niraula, Rewati; Meixner, Thomas; Norman, Laura M.


    Land use/land cover (LULC) and climate changes are important drivers of change in streamflow. Assessing the impact of LULC and climate changes on streamflow is typically done with a calibrated and validated watershed model. However, there is a debate on the degree of calibration required. The objective of this study was to quantify the variation in estimated relative and absolute changes in streamflow associated with LULC and climate changes with different calibration approaches. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied in an uncalibrated (UC), single outlet calibrated (OC), and spatially-calibrated (SC) mode to compare the relative and absolute changes in streamflow at 14 gaging stations within the Santa Cruz River Watershed in southern Arizona, USA. For this purpose, the effect of 3 LULC, 3 precipitation (P), and 3 temperature (T) scenarios were tested individually. For the validation period, Percent Bias (PBIAS) values were >100% with the UC model for all gages, the values were between 0% and 100% with the OC model and within 20% with the SC model. Changes in streamflow predicted with the UC and OC models were compared with those of the SC model. This approach implicitly assumes that the SC model is “ideal”. Results indicated that the magnitude of both absolute and relative changes in streamflow due to LULC predicted with the UC and OC results were different than those of the SC model. The magnitude of absolute changes predicted with the UC and SC models due to climate change (both P and T) were also significantly different, but were not different for OC and SC models. Results clearly indicated that relative changes due to climate change predicted with the UC and OC were not significantly different than that predicted with the SC models. This result suggests that it is important to calibrate the model spatially to analyze the effect of LULC change but not as important for analyzing the relative change in streamflow due to climate change. This

  11. Fecal bacteria source characterization and sensitivity analysis of SWAT 2005 (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2005 includes a microbial sub-model to simulate fecal bacteria transport at the watershed scale. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to characterize fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) source loads and to assess the model sensitivity t...

  12. Residual bias in a multiphase flow model calibration and prediction (United States)

    Poeter, E.P.; Johnson, R.H.


    When calibrated models produce biased residuals, we assume it is due to an inaccurate conceptual model and revise the model, choosing the most representative model as the one with the best-fit and least biased residuals. However, if the calibration data are biased, we may fail to identify an acceptable model or choose an incorrect model. Conceptual model revision could not eliminate biased residuals during inversion of simulated DNAPL migration under controlled conditions at the Borden Site near Ontario Canada. This paper delineates hypotheses for the source of bias, and explains the evolution of the calibration and resulting model predictions.

  13. Distributed calibrating snow models using remotely sensed snow cover information (United States)

    Li, H.


    Distributed calibrating snow models using remotely sensed snow cover information Hongyi Li1, Tao Che1, Xin Li1, Jian Wang11. Cold and Arid Regions Environmental and Engineering Research Institute, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China For improving the simulation accuracy of snow model, remotely sensed snow cover data are used to calibrate spatial parameters of snow model. A physically based snow model is developed and snow parameters including snow surface roughness, new snow density and critical threshold temperature distinguishing snowfall from precipitation, are spatially calibrated in this study. The study region, Babaohe basin, located in northwestern China, have seasonal snow cover and with complex terrain. The results indicates that the spatially calibration of snow model parameters make the simulation results more reasonable, and the simulated snow accumulation days, plot-scale snow depth are more better than lumped calibration.

  14. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Global Applications


    Arnold, J.; Srinivasan, R; Neitsch, S. (ed.); George, C.; Abbaspour, K.; Hao, F.H.; van Griensven, A.; Gosain, A.; Debels, P.; N.W. Kim; Somura, H.; Ella, Victor B.; Leon, L.; Jintrawet, A.; Manuel R. Reyes


    Summary: SWAT,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is a river basin, or watershed, scale model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. [from the editors' preamble] LTRA-5 (Agroforestry and Sustainable Vegetable Production)

  15. Influence of rainfall observation network on model calibration and application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy


    Full Text Available The objective in this study is to investigate the influence of the spatial resolution of the rainfall input on the model calibration and application. The analysis is carried out by varying the distribution of the raingauge network. A meso-scale catchment located in southwest Germany has been selected for this study. First, the semi-distributed HBV model is calibrated with the precipitation interpolated from the available observed rainfall of the different raingauge networks. An automatic calibration method based on the combinatorial optimization algorithm simulated annealing is applied. The performance of the hydrological model is analyzed as a function of the raingauge density. Secondly, the calibrated model is validated using interpolated precipitation from the same raingauge density used for the calibration as well as interpolated precipitation based on networks of reduced and increased raingauge density. Lastly, the effect of missing rainfall data is investigated by using a multiple linear regression approach for filling in the missing measurements. The model, calibrated with the complete set of observed data, is then run in the validation period using the above described precipitation field. The simulated hydrographs obtained in the above described three sets of experiments are analyzed through the comparisons of the computed Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and several goodness-of-fit indexes. The results show that the model using different raingauge networks might need re-calibration of the model parameters, specifically model calibrated on relatively sparse precipitation information might perform well on dense precipitation information while model calibrated on dense precipitation information fails on sparse precipitation information. Also, the model calibrated with the complete set of observed precipitation and run with incomplete observed data associated with the data estimated using multiple linear regressions, at the locations treated as

  16. Comparison of performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT 2009 and 2012 in an extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Guo


    Full Text Available Subsurface tile drainage systems are widely used in agricultural watersheds in the Midwestern US and enable the Midwest area to become highly productive agricultural lands, but can also create environmental problems, for example nitrate-N contamination associated with drainage waters. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT has been used to model watersheds with tile drainage. SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 provide new tile drainage routines. However, few studies have used these revisions to study tile drainage impacts at both field and watershed scales. Moreover, SWAT2012 revision 645 improved the soil moisture based curve number calculation method, which has not been fully tested. This study used long-term (1991–2003 field site and river station data from the Little Vermilion River (LVR watershed to evaluate performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT2009 revision 528 (the old routine and SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 (the new routine. Both the old and new routines provided reasonable but unsatisfactory (NSE  <  0.5 uncalibrated flow and nitrate loss results for a mildly sloped watershed with low runoff. The calibrated monthly tile flow, surface flow, nitrate-N in tile and surface flow, sediment and annual corn and soybean yield results from SWAT with the old and new tile drainage routines were compared with observed values. Generally, the new routine provided acceptable simulated tile flow (NSE  =  0.48–0.65 and nitrate in tile flow (NSE  =  0.48–0.68 for field sites with random pattern tile and constant tile spacing, while the old routine simulated tile flow and nitrate in tile flow results for the field site with constant tile spacing were unacceptable (NSE  =  0.00–0.32 and −0.29–0.06, respectively. The new modified curve number calculation method in revision 645 (NSE  =  0.50–0.81 better simulated surface runoff than revision 615 (NSE  =  −0.11–0.49. The calibration

  17. Impact of data quality and quantity and the calibration procedure on crop growth model calibration (United States)

    Seidel, Sabine J.; Werisch, Stefan


    Crop growth models are a commonly used tool for impact assessment of climate variability and climate change on crop yields and water use. Process-based crop models rely on algorithms that approximate the main physiological plant processes by a set of equations containing several calibration parameters as well as basic underlying assumptions. It is well recognized that model calibration is essential to improve the accuracy and reliability of model predictions. However, model calibration and validation is often hindered by a limited quantity and quality of available data. Recent studies suggest that crop model parameters can only be derived from field experiments in which plant growth and development processes have been measured. To be able to achieve a reliable prediction of crop growth under irrigation or drought stress, the correct characterization of the whole soil-plant-atmosphere system is essential. In this context is the accurate simulation of crop development, yield and the soil water dynamics plays an important role. In this study we aim to investigate the importance of a site and cultivar-specific model calibration based on experimental data using the SVAT model Daisy. We investigate to which extent different data sets and different parameter estimation procedures affect particularly yield estimates, irrigation water demand and the soil water dynamics. The comprehensive experimental data has been derived from an experiment conducted in Germany where five irrigation regimes were imposed on cabbage. Data collection included continuous measurements of soil tension and soil water content in two plots at three depths, weekly measurements of LAI, plant heights, leaf-N-content, stomatal conductivity, biomass partitioning, rooting depth as well as harvested yields and duration of growing period. Three crop growth calibration strategies were compared: (1) manual calibration based on yield and duration of growing period, (2) manual calibration based on yield

  18. Improving hydrological simulations by incorporating GRACE data for model calibration (United States)

    Bai, Peng; Liu, Xiaomang; Liu, Changming


    Hydrological model parameters are typically calibrated by observed streamflow data. This calibration strategy is questioned when the simulated hydrological variables of interest are not limited to streamflow. Well-performed streamflow simulations do not guarantee the reliable reproduction of other hydrological variables. One of the reasons is that hydrological model parameters are not reasonably identified. The Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE)-derived total water storage change (TWSC) data provide an opportunity to constrain hydrological model parameterizations in combination with streamflow observations. In this study, a multi-objective calibration scheme based on GRACE-derived TWSC and streamflow observations was compared with the traditional single-objective calibration scheme based on only streamflow simulations. Two hydrological models were employed on 22 catchments in China with different climatic conditions. The model evaluations were performed using observed streamflows, GRACE-derived TWSC, and actual evapotranspiration (ET) estimates from flux towers and from the water balance approach. Results showed that the multi-objective calibration scheme provided more reliable TWSC and ET simulations without significant deterioration in the accuracy of streamflow simulations than the single-objective calibration. The improvement in TWSC and ET simulations was more significant in relatively dry catchments than in relatively wet catchments. In addition, hydrological models calibrated using GRACE-derived TWSC data alone cannot obtain accurate runoff simulations in ungauged catchments. This study highlights the importance of including additional constraints in addition to streamflow observations to improve performances of hydrological models.

  19. Calibration of stormwater quality regression models: a random process? (United States)

    Dembélé, A; Bertrand-Krajewski, J-L; Barillon, B


    Regression models are among the most frequently used models to estimate pollutants event mean concentrations (EMC) in wet weather discharges in urban catchments. Two main questions dealing with the calibration of EMC regression models are investigated: i) the sensitivity of models to the size and the content of data sets used for their calibration, ii) the change of modelling results when models are re-calibrated when data sets grow and change with time when new experimental data are collected. Based on an experimental data set of 64 rain events monitored in a densely urbanised catchment, four TSS EMC regression models (two log-linear and two linear models) with two or three explanatory variables have been derived and analysed. Model calibration with the iterative re-weighted least squares method is less sensitive and leads to more robust results than the ordinary least squares method. Three calibration options have been investigated: two options accounting for the chronological order of the observations, one option using random samples of events from the whole available data set. Results obtained with the best performing non linear model clearly indicate that the model is highly sensitive to the size and the content of the data set used for its calibration.

  20. Hand-eye calibration using a target registration error model. (United States)

    Chen, Elvis C S; Morgan, Isabella; Jayarathne, Uditha; Ma, Burton; Peters, Terry M


    Surgical cameras are prevalent in modern operating theatres and are often used as a surrogate for direct vision. Visualisation techniques (e.g. image fusion) made possible by tracking the camera require accurate hand-eye calibration between the camera and the tracking system. The authors introduce the concept of 'guided hand-eye calibration', where calibration measurements are facilitated by a target registration error (TRE) model. They formulate hand-eye calibration as a registration problem between homologous point-line pairs. For each measurement, the position of a monochromatic ball-tip stylus (a point) and its projection onto the image (a line) is recorded, and the TRE of the resulting calibration is predicted using a TRE model. The TRE model is then used to guide the placement of the calibration tool, so that the subsequent measurement minimises the predicted TRE. Assessing TRE after each measurement produces accurate calibration using a minimal number of measurements. As a proof of principle, they evaluated guided calibration using a webcam and an endoscopic camera. Their endoscopic camera results suggest that millimetre TRE is achievable when at least 15 measurements are acquired with the tracker sensor ∼80 cm away on the laparoscope handle for a target ∼20 cm away from the camera.

  1. Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Xuesong


    As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio_E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio_LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWAT model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT’s performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests.

  2. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean


    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e

  3. Testing of a one dimensional model for Field II calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Willatzen, Morten


    Field II is a program for simulating ultrasound transducer fields. It is capable of calculating the emitted and pulse-echoed fields for both pulsed and continuous wave transducers. To make it fully calibrated a model of the transducer’s electro-mechanical impulse response must be included. We...... examine an adapted one dimensional transducer model originally proposed by Willatzen [9] to calibrate Field II. This model is modified to calculate the required impulse responses needed by Field II for a calibrated field pressure and external circuit current calculation. The testing has been performed...... to the calibrated Field II program for 1, 4, and 10 cycle excitations. Two parameter sets were applied for modeling, one real valued Pz27 parameter set, manufacturer supplied, and one complex valued parameter set found in literature, Alguer´o et al. [11]. The latter implicitly accounts for attenuation. Results show...

  4. Analysis of Sting Balance Calibration Data Using Optimized Regression Models (United States)

    Ulbrich, N.; Bader, Jon B.


    Calibration data of a wind tunnel sting balance was processed using a candidate math model search algorithm that recommends an optimized regression model for the data analysis. During the calibration the normal force and the moment at the balance moment center were selected as independent calibration variables. The sting balance itself had two moment gages. Therefore, after analyzing the connection between calibration loads and gage outputs, it was decided to choose the difference and the sum of the gage outputs as the two responses that best describe the behavior of the balance. The math model search algorithm was applied to these two responses. An optimized regression model was obtained for each response. Classical strain gage balance load transformations and the equations of the deflection of a cantilever beam under load are used to show that the search algorithm s two optimized regression models are supported by a theoretical analysis of the relationship between the applied calibration loads and the measured gage outputs. The analysis of the sting balance calibration data set is a rare example of a situation when terms of a regression model of a balance can directly be derived from first principles of physics. In addition, it is interesting to note that the search algorithm recommended the correct regression model term combinations using only a set of statistical quality metrics that were applied to the experimental data during the algorithm s term selection process.

  5. Bayesian calibration of groundwater models with input data uncertainty (United States)

    Xu, Tianfang; Valocchi, Albert J.; Ye, Ming; Liang, Feng; Lin, Yu-Feng


    Effective water resources management typically relies on numerical models to analyze groundwater flow and solute transport processes. Groundwater models are often subject to input data uncertainty, as some inputs (such as recharge and well pumping rates) are estimated and subject to uncertainty. Current practices of groundwater model calibration often overlook uncertainties in input data; this can lead to biased parameter estimates and compromised predictions. Through a synthetic case study of surface-ground water interaction under changing pumping conditions and land use, we investigate the impacts of uncertain pumping and recharge rates on model calibration and uncertainty analysis. We then present a Bayesian framework of model calibration to handle uncertain input of groundwater models. The framework implements a marginalizing step to account for input data uncertainty when evaluating likelihood. It was found that not accounting for input uncertainty may lead to biased, overconfident parameter estimates because parameters could be over-adjusted to compensate for possible input data errors. Parameter compensation can have deleterious impacts when the calibrated model is used to make forecast under a scenario that is different from calibration conditions. By marginalizing input data uncertainty, the Bayesian calibration approach effectively alleviates parameter compensation and gives more accurate predictions in the synthetic case study. The marginalizing Bayesian method also decomposes prediction uncertainty into uncertainties contributed by parameters, input data, and measurements. The results underscore the need to account for input uncertainty to better inform postmodeling decision making.

  6. Cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis of BMPs in controlling agricultural nonpoint source pollution in China based on the SWAT model. (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Zhang, Peipei; Wang, Xiujuan; Wang, Jiawei; Yu, Wenwen; Shen, Zhenyao


    Best management practices (BMPs) have been widely used in managing agricultural nonpoint source pollution (ANSP) at the watershed level. Most BMPs are related to land use, tillage management, and fertilizer levels. In total, seven BMP scenarios (Reforest1, Reforest2, No Tillage, Contour tillage, and fertilizer level 1-4) that are related to these three factors were estimated in this study. The objectives were to investigate the effectiveness and cost-benefit of these BMPs on ANSP reduction in a large tributary of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, which are based on the simulation results of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results indicated that reforestation was the most economically efficient of all BMPs, and its net benefits were up to CNY 4.36×10(7) years(-1) (about USD 7.08×10(6) years(-1)). Regarding tillage practices, no tillage practice was more environmentally friendly than other tillage practices, and contour tillage was more economically efficient. Reducing the local fertilizer level to 0.8-fold less than that of 2010 can yield a satisfactory environmental and economic efficiency. Reforestation and fertilizer management were more effective in reducing total phosphorus (TP), whereas tillage management was more effective in reducing total nitrogen (TN). When CNY 10,000 (about USD 162) was applied to reforestation, no tillage, contour tillage, and an 0.8-fold reduction in the fertilizer level, then annual TN load can be reduced by 0.08, 0.16, 0.11, and 0.04 t and annual TP load can be reduced by 0.04, 0.02, 0.01 and 0.03 t, respectively. The cost-benefit (CB) ratios of the BMPs were as follows: reforestation (207 %) > contour tillage (129 %) > no tillage (114 %) > fertilizer management (96 and 89 %). The most economical and effective BMPs can be designated as follows: BMP1 (returning arable land with slopes greater than 25° to forests and those lands with slopes of 15-25° to orchards), BMP2 (implementing no tillage

  7. Improving the Performance of Temperature Index Snowmelt Model of SWAT by Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data (United States)

    Yang, Yan; Onishi, Takeo; Hiramatsu, Ken


    Simulation results of the widely used temperature index snowmelt model are greatly influenced by input air temperature data. Spatially sparse air temperature data remain the main factor inducing uncertainties and errors in that model, which limits its applications. Thus, to solve this problem, we created new air temperature data using linear regression relationships that can be formulated based on MODIS land surface temperature data. The Soil Water Assessment Tool model, which includes an improved temperature index snowmelt module, was chosen to test the newly created data. By evaluating simulation performance for daily snowmelt in three test basins of the Amur River, performance of the newly created data was assessed. The coefficient of determination (R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used for evaluation. The results indicate that MODIS land surface temperature data can be used as a new source for air temperature data creation. This will improve snow simulation using the temperature index model in an area with sparse air temperature observations. PMID:25165746

  8. Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China) (United States)

    Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping


    Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.

  9. A Method to Test Model Calibration Techniques: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judkoff, Ron; Polly, Ben; Neymark, Joel


    This paper describes a method for testing model calibration techniques. Calibration is commonly used in conjunction with energy retrofit audit models. An audit is conducted to gather information about the building needed to assemble an input file for a building energy modeling tool. A calibration technique is used to reconcile model predictions with utility data, and then the 'calibrated model' is used to predict energy savings from a variety of retrofit measures and combinations thereof. Current standards and guidelines such as BPI-2400 and ASHRAE-14 set criteria for 'goodness of fit' and assume that if the criteria are met, then the calibration technique is acceptable. While it is logical to use the actual performance data of the building to tune the model, it is not certain that a good fit will result in a model that better predicts post-retrofit energy savings. Therefore, the basic idea here is that the simulation program (intended for use with the calibration technique) is used to generate surrogate utility bill data and retrofit energy savings data against which the calibration technique can be tested. This provides three figures of merit for testing a calibration technique, 1) accuracy of the post-retrofit energy savings prediction, 2) closure on the 'true' input parameter values, and 3) goodness of fit to the utility bill data. The paper will also discuss the pros and cons of using this synthetic surrogate data approach versus trying to use real data sets of actual buildings.

  10. Using Active Learning for Speeding up Calibration in Simulation Models. (United States)

    Cevik, Mucahit; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Stout, Natasha K; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Craven, Mark; Alagoz, Oguzhan


    Most cancer simulation models include unobservable parameters that determine disease onset and tumor growth. These parameters play an important role in matching key outcomes such as cancer incidence and mortality, and their values are typically estimated via a lengthy calibration procedure, which involves evaluating a large number of combinations of parameter values via simulation. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how machine learning approaches can be used to accelerate the calibration process by reducing the number of parameter combinations that are actually evaluated. Active learning is a popular machine learning method that enables a learning algorithm such as artificial neural networks to interactively choose which parameter combinations to evaluate. We developed an active learning algorithm to expedite the calibration process. Our algorithm determines the parameter combinations that are more likely to produce desired outputs and therefore reduces the number of simulation runs performed during calibration. We demonstrate our method using the previously developed University of Wisconsin breast cancer simulation model (UWBCS). In a recent study, calibration of the UWBCS required the evaluation of 378 000 input parameter combinations to build a race-specific model, and only 69 of these combinations produced results that closely matched observed data. By using the active learning algorithm in conjunction with standard calibration methods, we identify all 69 parameter combinations by evaluating only 5620 of the 378 000 combinations. Machine learning methods hold potential in guiding model developers in the selection of more promising parameter combinations and hence speeding up the calibration process. Applying our machine learning algorithm to one model shows that evaluating only 1.49% of all parameter combinations would be sufficient for the calibration. © The Author(s) 2015.

  11. Calibration of microscopic traffic simulation models using metaheuristic algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miao Yu


    Full Text Available This paper presents several metaheuristic algorithms to calibrate a microscopic traffic simulation model. The genetic algorithm (GA, Tabu Search (TS, and a combination of the GA and TS (i.e., warmed GA and warmed TS are implemented and compared. A set of traffic data collected from the I-5 Freeway, Los Angles, California, is used. Objective functions are defined to minimize the difference between simulated and field traffic data which are built based on the flow and speed. Several car-following parameters in VISSIM, which can significantly affect the simulation outputs, are selected to calibrate. A better match to the field measurements is reached with the GA, TS, and warmed GA and TS when comparing with that only using the default parameters in VISSIM. Overall, TS performs very well and can be used to calibrate parameters. Combining metaheuristic algorithms clearly performs better and therefore is highly recommended for calibrating microscopic traffic simulation models.

  12. An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Alemayehu


    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is a globally applied river basin ecohydrological model used in a wide spectrum of studies, ranging from land use change and climate change impacts studies to research for the development of the best water management practices. However, SWAT has limitations in simulating the seasonal growth cycles for trees and perennial vegetation in the tropics, where rainfall rather than temperature is the dominant plant growth controlling factor. Our goal is to improve the vegetation growth module of SWAT for simulating the vegetation variables – such as the leaf area index (LAI – for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we present a modified SWAT version for the tropics (SWAT-T that uses a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI – a quotient of rainfall (P and reference evapotranspiration (ETr – to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania show that the SWAT-T-simulated LAI corresponds well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS LAI for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland. This indicates that the SMI is reliable for triggering a new annual growth cycle. The water balance components (evapotranspiration and streamflow simulated by the SWAT-T exhibit a good agreement with remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET-RS and observed streamflow. The SWAT-T model, with the proposed vegetation growth module for tropical ecosystems, can be a robust tool for simulating the vegetation growth dynamics in hydrologic models in tropical regions.

  13. Soil Water and Temperature System (SWATS) Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, D


    The soil water and temperature system (SWATS) provides vertical profiles of soil temperature, soil-water potential, and soil moisture as a function of depth below the ground surface at hourly intervals. The temperature profiles are measured directly by in situ sensors at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the SGP climate research site. The soil-water potential and soil moisture profiles are derived from measurements of soil temperature rise in response to small inputs of heat. Atmospheric scientists use the data in climate models to determine boundary conditions and to estimate the surface energy flux. The data are also useful to hydrologists, soil scientists, and agricultural scientists for determining the state of the soil.

  14. Embodying, calibrating and caring for a local model of obesity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Winther, Jonas; Hillersdal, Line

    and technologies herein lead to the emergence of what we propose to be local models of obesity. Describing the emergence of local models of obesity we show how a specific model is being cared for, calibrated and embodied by research staff as well as research subjects and how interdisciplinary obesity research...... is an ongoing process of configuring but also extending beyond already established models of obesity. We argue that an articulation of such practices of local care, embodiment and calibration are crucial for the appreciation, evaluation and transferability of interdisciplinary obesity research....

  15. Calibrating the ECCO ocean general circulation model using Green's functions (United States)

    Menemenlis, D.; Fu, L. L.; Lee, T.; Fukumori, I.


    Green's functions provide a simple, yet effective, method to test and calibrate General-Circulation-Model(GCM) parameterizations, to study and quantify model and data errors, to correct model biases and trends, and to blend estimates from different solutions and data products.

  16. Geometrical modelling and calibration of video cameras for underwater navigation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Melen, T.


    Video cameras and other visual sensors can provide valuable navigation information for underwater remotely operated vehicles. The thesis relates to the geometric modelling and calibration of video cameras. To exploit the accuracy potential of a video camera, all systematic errors must be modelled and compensated for. This dissertation proposes a new geometric camera model, where linear image plane distortion (difference in scale and lack of orthogonality between the image axes) is compensated for after, and separately from, lens distortion. The new model can be viewed as an extension of the linear or DLT (Direct Linear Transformation) model and as a modification of the model traditionally used in photogrammetry. The new model can be calibrated from both planar and nonplanar calibration objects. The feasibility of the model is demonstrated in a typical camera calibration experiment, which indicates that the new model is more accurate than the traditional one. It also gives a simple solution to the problem of computing undistorted image coordinates from distorted ones. Further, the dissertation suggests how to get initial estimates for all the camera model parameters, how to select the number of parameters modelling lens distortion and how to reduce the dimension of the search space in the nonlinear optimization. There is also a discussion on the use of analytical partial derivates. The new model is particularly well suited for video images with non-square pixels, but it may also advantagely be used with professional photogrammetric equipment. 63 refs., 11 figs., 6 tabs.

  17. A mathematical model for camera calibration based on straight lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio M. G. Tommaselli


    Full Text Available In other to facilitate the automation of camera calibration process, a mathematical model using straight lines was developed, which is based on the equivalent planes mathematical model. Parameter estimation of the developed model is achieved by the Least Squares Method with Conditions and Observations. The same method of adjustment was used to implement camera calibration with bundles, which is based on points. Experiments using simulated and real data have shown that the developed model based on straight lines gives results comparable to the conventional method with points. Details concerning the mathematical development of the model and experiments with simulated and real data will be presented and the results with both methods of camera calibration, with straight lines and with points, will be compared.

  18. Comparison of streamflow prediction skills from NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT toward an ensemble flood forecasting framework over large scales (United States)

    Rajib, M. A.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Du, L.; Merwade, V.; Lin, P.


    Considering the differences in how individual models represent physical processes for runoff generation and streamflow routing, use of ensemble output is desirable in an operational streamflow estimation and flood forecasting framework. To enable the use of ensemble streamflow, comparison of multiple hydrologic models at finer spatial resolution over a large domain is yet to be explored. The objective of this work is to compare streamflow prediction skills from three different land surface/hydrologic modeling frameworks: NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT, over the Ohio River Basin with a drainage area of 491,000 km2. For a uniform comparison, all the three modeling frameworks share the same setup with common weather inputs, spatial resolution, and gauge stations being employed in the calibration procedure. The runoff output from NOAH-MP and VIC land surface models is routed through a vector-based river routing model named RAPID, that is set up on the high resolution NHDPlus reaches and catchments. SWAT model is used with its default tightly coupled surface-subsurface hydrology and channel routing components to obtain streamflow for each NHDPlus reach. Model simulations are performed in two modes, including: (i) hindcasting/calibration mode in which the models are calibrated against USGS daily streamflow observations at multiple locations, and (ii) validation mode in which the calibrated models are executed at 3-hourly time interval for historical flood events. In order to have a relative assessment on the model-specific nature of biases during storm events as well as dry periods, time-series of surface runoff and baseflow components at the specific USGS gauging locations are extracted from corresponding observed/simulated streamflow data using a recursive digital filter. The multi-model comparison presented here provides insights toward future model improvements and also serves as the first step in implementing an operational ensemble flood forecasting framework

  19. Stochastic calibration and learning in nonstationary hydroeconomic models (United States)

    Maneta, M. P.; Howitt, R.


    Concern about water scarcity and adverse climate events over agricultural regions has motivated a number of efforts to develop operational integrated hydroeconomic models to guide adaptation and optimal use of water. Once calibrated, these models are used for water management and analysis assuming they remain valid under future conditions. In this paper, we present and demonstrate a methodology that permits the recursive calibration of economic models of agricultural production from noisy but frequently available data. We use a standard economic calibration approach, namely positive mathematical programming, integrated in a data assimilation algorithm based on the ensemble Kalman filter equations to identify the economic model parameters. A moving average kernel ensures that new and past information on agricultural activity are blended during the calibration process, avoiding loss of information and overcalibration for the conditions of a single year. A regularization constraint akin to the standard Tikhonov regularization is included in the filter to ensure its stability even in the presence of parameters with low sensitivity to observations. The results show that the implementation of the PMP methodology within a data assimilation framework based on the enKF equations is an effective method to calibrate models of agricultural production even with noisy information. The recursive nature of the method incorporates new information as an added value to the known previous observations of agricultural activity without the need to store historical information. The robustness of the method opens the door to the use of new remote sensing algorithms for operational water management.

  20. Effects of temporal variability on HBV model calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Reinaldo Rusli


    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate the effect of temporal variability on the optimization of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavedlning (HBV model, as well as the calibration performance using manual optimization and average parameter values. By applying the HBV model to the Jiangwan Catchment, whose geological features include lots of cracks and gaps, simulations under various schemes were developed: short, medium-length, and long temporal calibrations. The results show that, with long temporal calibration, the objective function values of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, relative error (RE, root mean square error (RMSE, and high flow ratio generally deliver a preferable simulation. Although NSE and RMSE are relatively stable with different temporal scales, significant improvements to RE and the high flow ratio are seen with longer temporal calibration. It is also noted that use of average parameter values does not lead to better simulation results compared with manual optimization. With medium-length temporal calibration, manual optimization delivers the best simulation results, with NSE, RE, RMSE, and the high flow ratio being 0.563 6, 0.122 3, 0.978 8, and 0.854 7, respectively; and calibration using average parameter values delivers NSE, RE, RMSE, and the high flow ratio of 0.481 1, 0.467 6, 1.021 0, and 2.784 0, respectively. Similar behavior is found with long temporal calibration, when NSE, RE, RMSE, and the high flow ratio using manual optimization are 0.525 3, −0.069 2, 1.058 0, and 0.980 0, respectively, as compared with 0.490 3, 0.224 8, 1.096 2, and 0.547 9, respectively, using average parameter values. This study shows that selection of longer periods of temporal calibration in hydrological analysis delivers better simulation in general for water balance analysis.

  1. Effects of temporal variability on HBV model calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steven Reinaldo Rusli


    Full Text Available This study aimed to investigate the effects of temporal variability on the optimization of the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavedlning (HBV model, as well as the calibration performance using manual optimization and average parameter values. By applying the HBV model to the Jiangwan Catchment, whose geological features include lots of cracks and gaps, simulations under various schemes were developed: short, medium-length, and long temporal calibrations. The results show that, with long temporal calibration, the objective function values of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, relative error (RE, root mean square error (RMSE, and high flow ratio generally deliver a preferable simulation. Although NSE and RMSE are relatively stable with different temporal scales, significant improvements to RE and the high flow ratio are seen with longer temporal calibration. It is also noted that use of average parameter values does not lead to better simulation results compared with manual optimization. With medium-length temporal calibration, manual optimization delivers the best simulation results, with NSE, RE, RMSE, and the high flow ratio being 0.563 6, 0.122 3, 0.978 8, and 0.854 7, respectively; and calibration using average parameter values delivers NSE, RE, RMSE, and the high flow ratio of 0.481 1, 0.467 6, 1.021 0, and 2.784 0, respectively. Similar behavior is found with long temporal calibration, when NSE, RE, RMSE, and the high flow ratio using manual optimization are 0.525 3, −0.069 2, 1.058 0, and 0.980 0, respectively, as compared with 0.490 3, 0.224 8, 1.096 2, and 0.547 9, respectively, using average parameter values. This study shows that selection of longer periods of temporal calibration in hydrological analysis delivers better simulation in general for water balance analysis.

  2. The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration (United States)

    Moore, Catherine; Doherty, John


    Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The "cost of uniqueness" is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, in turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly "well calibrated". Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration

  3. Cloud-Based Model Calibration Using OpenStudio: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, E.; Lisell, L.; Goldwasser, D.; Macumber, D.; Dean, J.; Metzger, I.; Parker, A.; Long, N.; Ball, B.; Schott, M.; Weaver, E.; Brackney, L.


    OpenStudio is a free, open source Software Development Kit (SDK) and application suite for performing building energy modeling and analysis. The OpenStudio Parametric Analysis Tool has been extended to allow cloud-based simulation of multiple OpenStudio models parametrically related to a baseline model. This paper describes the new cloud-based simulation functionality and presents a model cali-bration case study. Calibration is initiated by entering actual monthly utility bill data into the baseline model. Multiple parameters are then varied over multiple iterations to reduce the difference between actual energy consumption and model simulation results, as calculated and visualized by billing period and by fuel type. Simulations are per-formed in parallel using the Amazon Elastic Cloud service. This paper highlights model parameterizations (measures) used for calibration, but the same multi-nodal computing architecture is available for other purposes, for example, recommending combinations of retrofit energy saving measures using the calibrated model as the new baseline.

  4. A methodology to calibrate pedestrian walker models using multiple objectives

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Campanella, M.C.; Daamen, W.; Hoogendoorn, S.P.


    The application of walker models to simulate real situations require accuracy in several traffic situations. One strategy to obtain a generic model is to calibrate the parameters in several situations using multiple-objective functions in the optimization process. In this paper, we propose a general

  5. A Low Cost Calibration Method for Urban Drainage Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld


    . The reduction coefficient is found on basis of a combination of a urban drainage model (MOUSE) and a set of simple switches located in a combined sewer overflow (CSO) structure. By calibrating the model with only the duration of the CSO, it was possible to calculate a hydrological reduction coefficient close...

  6. Evaluation of an ASM1 Model Calibration Precedure on a Municipal-Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Britta; Gernaey, Krist; Henze, Mogens


    The purpose of the calibrated model determines how to approach a model calibration, e.g. which information is needed and to which level of detail the model should be calibrated. A systematic model calibration procedure was therefore defined and evaluated for a municipal–industrial wastewater trea...

  7. Transient Recharge Estimability Through Field-Scale Groundwater Model Calibration. (United States)

    Knowling, Matthew J; Werner, Adrian D


    The estimation of recharge through groundwater model calibration is hampered by the nonuniqueness of recharge and aquifer parameter values. It has been shown recently that the estimability of spatially distributed recharge through calibration of steady-state models for practical situations (i.e., real-world, field-scale aquifer settings) is limited by the need for excessive amounts of hydraulic-parameter and groundwater-level data. However, the extent to which temporal recharge variability can be informed through transient model calibration, which involves larger water-level datasets, but requires the additional consideration of storage parameters, is presently unknown for practical situations. In this study, time-varying recharge estimates, inferred through calibration of a field-scale highly parameterized groundwater model, are systematically investigated subject to changes in (1) the degree to which hydraulic parameters including hydraulic conductivity (K) and specific yield (S y ) are constrained, (2) the number of water-level calibration targets, and (3) the temporal resolution (up to monthly time steps) at which recharge is estimated. The analysis involves the use of a synthetic reality (a reference model) based on a groundwater model of Uley South Basin, South Australia. Identifiability statistics are used to evaluate the ability of recharge and hydraulic parameters to be estimated uniquely. Results show that reasonable estimates of monthly recharge (recharge root-mean-squared error) require a considerable amount of transient water-level data, and that the spatial distribution of K is known. Joint estimation of recharge, S y and K, however, precludes reasonable inference of recharge and hydraulic parameter values. We conclude that the estimation of temporal recharge variability through calibration may be impractical for real-world settings. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  8. Multi-Dimensional Calibration of Impact Dynamic Models (United States)

    Horta, Lucas G.; Reaves, Mercedes C.; Annett, Martin S.; Jackson, Karen E.


    NASA Langley, under the Subsonic Rotary Wing Program, recently completed two helicopter tests in support of an in-house effort to study crashworthiness. As part of this effort, work is on-going to investigate model calibration approaches and calibration metrics for impact dynamics models. Model calibration of impact dynamics problems has traditionally assessed model adequacy by comparing time histories from analytical predictions to test at only a few critical locations. Although this approach provides for a direct measure of the model predictive capability, overall system behavior is only qualitatively assessed using full vehicle animations. In order to understand the spatial and temporal relationships of impact loads as they migrate throughout the structure, a more quantitative approach is needed. In this work impact shapes derived from simulated time history data are used to recommend sensor placement and to assess model adequacy using time based metrics and orthogonality multi-dimensional metrics. An approach for model calibration is presented that includes metric definitions, uncertainty bounds, parameter sensitivity, and numerical optimization to estimate parameters to reconcile test with analysis. The process is illustrated using simulated experiment data.

  9. Stepwise calibration procedure for regional coupled hydrological-hydrogeological models (United States)

    Labarthe, Baptiste; Abasq, Lena; de Fouquet, Chantal; Flipo, Nicolas


    Stream-aquifer interaction is a complex process depending on regional and local processes. Indeed, the groundwater component of hydrosystem and large scale heterogeneities control the regional flows towards the alluvial plains and the rivers. In second instance, the local distribution of the stream bed permeabilities controls the dynamics of stream-aquifer water fluxes within the alluvial plain, and therefore the near-river piezometric head distribution. In order to better understand the water circulation and pollutant transport in watersheds, the integration of these multi-dimensional processes in modelling platform has to be performed. Thus, the nested interfaces concept in continental hydrosystem modelling (where regional fluxes, simulated by large scale models, are imposed at local stream-aquifer interfaces) has been presented in Flipo et al (2014). This concept has been implemented in EauDyssée modelling platform for a large alluvial plain model (900km2) part of a 11000km2 multi-layer aquifer system, located in the Seine basin (France). The hydrosystem modelling platform is composed of four spatially distributed modules (Surface, Sub-surface, River and Groundwater), corresponding to four components of the terrestrial water cycle. Considering the large number of parameters to be inferred simultaneously, the calibration process of coupled models is highly computationally demanding and therefore hardly applicable to a real case study of 10000km2. In order to improve the efficiency of the calibration process, a stepwise calibration procedure is proposed. The stepwise methodology involves determining optimal parameters of all components of the coupled model, to provide a near optimum prior information for the global calibration. It starts with the surface component parameters calibration. The surface parameters are optimised based on the comparison between simulated and observed discharges (or filtered discharges) at various locations. Once the surface parameters

  10. Using optimisation for calibrating finite element models for adobe walls

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wilson Rodríguez Calderón


    Full Text Available This paper presents a proposal for applying optimisation schemes to calibrating 3D linear and non-linear finite element models for analysing structural walls made out of adobe. The calibration was based on laboratory data and that from previous research. Simulation and calibration involves a deep study of the conceptual model of adobe’s structural behaviour, mathematical and nu- merical models and the interrelationship with optimisation schemes arising from minimising an objective function. This is defined in terms of design variables and is restricted by the values of state variables. Both were obtained from the finite element model developed at ANSYS. The optimisation scheme with which the model was automatically calibrated required a macro to be pro- grammed using an APDL language package. This research was aimed at implementing nonlinear computational models for the structural analysis of walls based on experimental data; this provided a tool for assessing the behaviour of adobe walls with grea- ter security so that decisions can be made to make structural rehabilitation feasible and efficient.

  11. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton


    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  12. Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. K. Westerberg


    Full Text Available The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models will normally depend on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, are challenged by problems including: (1 uncertain discharge data, (2 variable sensitivity of different performance measures to different flow magnitudes, (3 influence of unknown input/output errors and (4 inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. This paper explores a calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs to address these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs on the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested – based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application, e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the method appears less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than previous use of limits of

  13. A Response Surface Methodology Approach to Groundwater Model Calibration (United States)


    previously calibrated model to create a target data set had the advantages of eliminating uncertainties due to field measurement errors and providing...exponential, linear, quadratic, and spherical variogram models and the inverse distance method to the first, second, and third powers. The different types... Uncertainty in Numerical Models of Groundwater Flow, 1, Mathematical Development," Water Resour. Res., 17(1): 149-161, (1981). Frind, E.O. and G.F

  14. Hydrologic and water quality models: Use, calibration, and validation (United States)

    This paper introduces a special collection of 22 research articles that present and discuss calibration and validation concepts in detail for hydrologic and water quality models by their developers and presents a broad framework for developing the American Society of Agricultural and Biological Engi...

  15. Hydrologic and water quality models: Key calibration and validation topics (United States)

    As a continuation of efforts to provide a common background and platform for accordant development of calibration and validation (C/V) engineering practices, ASABE members worked to determine critical topics related to model C/V, perform a synthesis of the Moriasi et al. (2012) special collection of...

  16. Calibrating Vadose Zone Models with Time-Lapse Gravity Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars; Hansen, A. B.; Looms, M. C.


    A change in soil water content is a change in mass stored in the subsurface. Given that the mass change is big enough, the change can be measured with a gravity meter. Attempts have been made with varying success over the last decades to use ground-based time-lapse gravity measurements to infer...... experiment on 10m by 10m grass land. Simulation studies show a potential for vadose zone model calibration using gravity data in conjunction with other geophysical data, e.g. cross-borehole georadar. We present early field data and calibration results from a forced infiltration experiment conducted over 30...

  17. I-spline Smoothing for Calibrating Predictive Models. (United States)

    Wu, Yuan; Jiang, Xiaoqian; Kim, Jihoon; Ohno-Machado, Lucila


    We proposed the I-spline Smoothing approach for calibrating predictive models by solving a nonlinear monotone regression problem. We took advantage of I-spline properties to obtain globally optimal solutions while keeping the computational cost low. Numerical studies based on three data sets showed the empirical evidences of I-spline Smoothing in improving calibration (i.e.,1.6x, 1.4x, and 1.4x on the three datasets compared to the average of competitors-Binning, Platt Scaling, Isotonic Regression, Monotone Spline Smoothing, Smooth Isotonic Regression) without deterioration of discrimination.

  18. Calibration of a Hydrological Model using Ensemble Satellite Rainfall Inputs (United States)

    Skinner, Christopher; Bellerby, Timothy


    A combination of satellite rainfall estimates (SRFE) and hydrological models can provide useful information for many remote areas of the planet. However, each component contains its own uncertainties and these uncertainties will interact when SRFE are used as inputs for hydrological models. For any assessment of a coupled system such as this there is a requirement for a comprehensive analysis of all sources of uncertainty, with full consideration of both facets. SRFE have been shown to be useful in many areas that lack the infrastructure to make timely and accurate estimations of rainfall from the ground. Sub-Saharan Africa is typical of this, where a paucity of rain recording radar and sparse gauging networks combine with a highly variable climate and a reliance on rain-fed agriculture. When operating at higher spatial and temporal resolutions, SRFE contain large uncertainties which will propagate through a hydrological model if used as a driving input. This study used a sequential method to produce ensemble SRFE based around the full conditional distribution of recorded rainfall from a sparse, historic raingauge network. The TAMSIM method (introduced by Teo, 2006) was used to produce 200 unique yet equiprobable SRFE, each used as a driver to a downstream hydrological model. Traditional hydrological modelling uses the adjustment of variable parameters within the model to reduce the error between a recorded record of discharge and the modelled one, and many automatic procedures have been produced to refine this calibration process. When SRFE have been used as a driver, little consideration has been paid to this process and often a calibration using the raingauge data has been used, without any consideration to the resulting uncertainty within the hydrological model and its calibration. A similar issue arises when ensemble inputs are used to a hydrological model that has been calibrated using a deterministic estimate of rainfall. This study has shown that such

  19. Assessment of Flood Frequency Alteration by Dam Construction via SWAT Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong Eun Lee


    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of the upstream Soyanggang and Chungju multi-purpose dams on the frequency of downstream floods in the Han River basin, South Korea. A continuous hydrological model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, was used to individually simulate regulated and unregulated daily streamflows entering the Paldang Dam, which is located at the outlet of the basin of interest. The simulation of the regulated flows by the Soyanggang and Chungju dams was calibrated with observed inflow data to the Paldang Dam. The estimated daily flood peaks were used for a frequency analysis, using the extreme Type-I distribution, for which the parameters were estimated via the L-moment method. This novel approach was applied to the study area to assess the effects of the dams on downstream floods. From the results, the two upstream dams were found to be able to reduce downstream floods by approximately 31% compared to naturally occurring floods without dam regulation. Furthermore, an approach to estimate the flood frequency based on the hourly extreme peak flow data, obtained by combining SWAT simulation and Sangal’s method, was proposed and then verified by comparison with the observation-based results. The increased percentage of floods estimated with hourly simulated data for the three scenarios of dam regulation ranged from 16.1% to 44.1%. The reduced percentages were a little higher than those for the daily-based flood frequency estimates. The developed approach allowed for better understanding of flood frequency, as influenced by dam regulation on a relatively large watershed scale.

  20. Uncertainty from model calibration: applying a new method to transport energy demand modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489; van Vuuren, D.P.; Janssen, Peter; Heuberger, P.S.C.; de Vries, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/068361599


    Uncertainties in energy demand modelling originate from both limited understanding of the real-world system and a lack of data for model development, calibration and validation. These uncertainties allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a

  1. Uncertainty from Model Calibration : Applying a New Method to Transport Energy Demand Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, B.; Van der Sluijs, J.P.; Van Vuuren, D.P.; Janssen, P.; Heuberger, P.S.C.; De Vries, B.


    Uncertainties in energy demand modelling originate from both limited understanding of the real-world system and a lack of data for model development, calibration and validation. These uncertainties allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a

  2. Model calibration for changing climates: lessons from Australian droughts. (United States)

    Fowler, K.; Peel, M. C.; Western, A. W.; Zhang, L.


    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. They are often used when translating projected climatic shifts (eg. in rainfall or PET) into potential shortfalls in water availability. However, recent literature suggests that conceptual rainfall-runoff models have variable performance simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions. Models calibrated to wetter conditions tend to perform poorly when climatic conditions become drier. In particular, models often provide biased simulations after a change in climate. This suggests that either the models themselves are deficient, and/or common calibration methods need to be improved. Therefore, this research tested alternative calibration methods. The overall goal was to find parameter sets that are robust to changes in climate and provide better performance when evaluated over multi-year droughts. Two broad approaches were trialled: hydrologic signature matching (using the DREAM-ABC algorithm), and single-objective optimisation (using the CMA-ES algorithm). For hydrologic signature matching, 36 hydrologic signatures were defined and over 200 combinations of these signatures were trialled. For single objective optimisation, 15 different objective functions were trialled. For both methods, testing was carried out in 86 catchments in South East Australia using 5 different rainfall runoff models. The results indicate two broad strategies for improving calibration methods for changing climates. First, common 'least squares' methods are too sensitive to day-to-day variations and not sufficiently sensitive to long-term changes. Thus, signatures or objective functions that incorporate longer timescales (eg. annual) may do better. Second, the least squares method tended to be outperformed by methods that take the absolute error, such as the Index of Agreement. Together, these two strategies have potential to better prepare models for future climatic changes.

  3. Calibrating corneal material model parameters using only inflation data: an ill-posed problem

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kok, S


    Full Text Available is to perform numerical modelling using the finite element method, for which a calibrated material model is required. These material models are typically calibrated using experimental inflation data by solving an inverse problem. In the inverse problem...

  4. Model calibration criteria for estimating ecological flow characteristics (United States)

    Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Poole, Sandra; Wolfe, William J.; Seibert, Jan; Breuer, Lutz; Kraft, Philipp


    Quantification of streamflow characteristics in ungauged catchments remains a challenge. Hydrological modeling is often used to derive flow time series and to calculate streamflow characteristics for subsequent applications that may differ from those envisioned by the modelers. While the estimation of model parameters for ungauged catchments is a challenging research task in itself, it is important to evaluate whether simulated time series preserve critical aspects of the streamflow hydrograph. To address this question, seven calibration objective functions were evaluated for their ability to preserve ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics of the average annual hydrograph using a runoff model, HBV-light, at 27 catchments in the southeastern United States. Calibration trials were repeated 100 times to reduce parameter uncertainty effects on the results, and 12 ecological flow characteristics were computed for comparison. Our results showed that the most suitable calibration strategy varied according to streamflow characteristic. Combined objective functions generally gave the best results, though a clear underprediction bias was observed. The occurrence of low prediction errors for certain combinations of objective function and flow characteristic suggests that (1) incorporating multiple ecological flow characteristics into a single objective function would increase model accuracy, potentially benefitting decision-making processes; and (2) there may be a need to have different objective functions available to address specific applications of the predicted time series.

  5. Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model (United States)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja


    Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

  6. A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.; de Vries, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/068361599; van Vuuren, D.P.; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489


    Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0

  7. Calibration of a mathematical model of Marukh Glacier, Western Caucasus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    О. О. Rybak


    Full Text Available Considered in the paper, three-dimentsional mathematical model of dynamics of Marukh Glacier, Western Caucasus. Block structure of the model and interaction between blocs is described. Key model parameters are calibrated using field radio-echo-sounding, topographic and gravimetrical measurements, as well as observations on surface air temperature and precipitation amount at Klukhorsky Pereval meteostation, closest to the glacier. We determine meanings of parameters favourable to minimum deviations between calculated and observed flow velocities and normalized surface mass balance. The model is supposed to be used in future for prognostic calculations of Caucasus glacier evolution in changing climatic conditions. 

  8. Use of Cloud Computing to Calibrate a Highly Parameterized Model (United States)

    Hayley, K. H.; Schumacher, J.; MacMillan, G.; Boutin, L.


    We present a case study using cloud computing to facilitate the calibration of a complex and highly parameterized model of regional groundwater flow. The calibration dataset consisted of many (~1500) measurements or estimates of static hydraulic head, a high resolution time series of groundwater extraction and disposal rates at 42 locations and pressure monitoring at 147 locations with a total of more than one million raw measurements collected over a ten year pumping history, and base flow estimates at 5 surface water monitoring locations. This modeling project was undertaken to assess the sustainability of groundwater withdrawal and disposal plans for insitu heavy oil extraction in Northeast Alberta, Canada. The geological interpretations used for model construction were based on more than 5,000 wireline logs collected throughout the 30,865 km2 regional study area (RSA), and resulted in a model with 28 slices, and 28 hydro stratigraphic units (average model thickness of 700 m, with aquifers ranging from a depth of 50 to 500 m below ground surface). The finite element FEFLOW model constructed on this geological interpretation had 331,408 nodes and required 265 time steps to simulate the ten year transient calibration period. This numerical model of groundwater flow required 3 hours to run on a on a server with two, 2.8 GHz processers and 16 Gb. RAM. Calibration was completed using PEST. Horizontal and vertical hydraulic conductivity as well as specific storage for each unit were independent parameters. For the recharge and the horizontal hydraulic conductivity in the three aquifers with the most transient groundwater use, a pilot point parameterization was adopted. A 7*7 grid of pilot points was defined over the RSA that defined a spatially variable horizontal hydraulic conductivity or recharge field. A 7*7 grid of multiplier pilot points that perturbed the more regional field was then superimposed over the 3,600 km2 local study area (LSA). The pilot point

  9. Bayesian model calibration of ramp compression experiments on Z (United States)

    Brown, Justin; Hund, Lauren


    Bayesian model calibration (BMC) is a statistical framework to estimate inputs for a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties, making it well suited to dynamic experiments which must be coupled with numerical simulations to interpret the results. Often, dynamic experiments are diagnosed using velocimetry and this output can be modeled using a hydrocode. Several calibration issues unique to this type of scenario including the functional nature of the output, uncertainty of nuisance parameters within the simulation, and model discrepancy identifiability are addressed, and a novel BMC process is proposed. As a proof of concept, we examine experiments conducted on Sandia National Laboratories' Z-machine which ramp compressed tantalum to peak stresses of 250 GPa. The proposed BMC framework is used to calibrate the cold curve of Ta (with uncertainty), and we conclude that the procedure results in simple, fast, and valid inferences. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  10. Design of Experiments, Model Calibration and Data Assimilation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Williams, Brian J. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    This presentation provides an overview of emulation, calibration and experiment design for computer experiments. Emulation refers to building a statistical surrogate from a carefully selected and limited set of model runs to predict unsampled outputs. The standard kriging approach to emulation of complex computer models is presented. Calibration refers to the process of probabilistically constraining uncertain physics/engineering model inputs to be consistent with observed experimental data. An initial probability distribution for these parameters is updated using the experimental information. Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) algorithms are often used to sample the calibrated parameter distribution. Several MCMC algorithms commonly employed in practice are presented, along with a popular diagnostic for evaluating chain behavior. Space-filling approaches to experiment design for selecting model runs to build effective emulators are discussed, including Latin Hypercube Design and extensions based on orthogonal array skeleton designs and imposed symmetry requirements. Optimization criteria that further enforce space-filling, possibly in projections of the input space, are mentioned. Designs to screen for important input variations are summarized and used for variable selection in a nuclear fuels performance application. This is followed by illustration of sequential experiment design strategies for optimization, global prediction, and rare event inference.

  11. HELOKA-HP thermal-hydraulic model validation and calibration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jin, Xue Zhou; Ghidersa, Bradut-Eugen; Badea, Aurelian Florin


    Highlights: • The electrical heater in HELOKA-HP has been modeled with RELAP5-3D using experimental data as input. • The model has been validated using novel techniques for assimilating experimental data and the representative model parameters with BEST-EST. • The methodology is successfully used for reducing the model uncertainties and provides a quantitative measure of the consistency between the experimental data and the model. - Abstract: The Helium Loop Karlsruhe High Pressure (HELOKA-HP) is an experimental facility for the testing of various helium-cooled components at high temperature (500 °C) and high pressure (8 MPa) for nuclear fusion applications. For modeling the loop thermal dynamics, a thermal-hydraulic model has been created using the system code RELAP5-3D. Recently, new experimental data covering the behavior of the loop components under relevant operational conditions have been made available giving the possibility of validating and calibrating the existing models in order to reduce the uncertainties of the simulated responses. This paper presents an example where such process has been applied for the HELOKA electrical heater model. Using novel techniques for assimilating experimental data, implemented in the computational module BEST-EST, the representative parameters of the model have been calibrated.

  12. A Model of Parallel Kinematics for Machine Calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Bue; Bæk Nielsen, Morten; Kløve Christensen, Simon


    the operator with a strong tool for easing this task. The kinematics and calibration of delta robots, in particular, are less researched than that of traditional Cartesian robots, for which tried-and-true methods for calibrating are well known. A forwards and reverse virtual model of a delta robot has been......Parallel kinematics have been adopted by more than 25 manufacturers of high-end desktop 3D printers [Wohlers Report (2015), p.118] as well as by research projects such as the WASP project [WASP (2015)], a 12 meter tall linear delta robot for Additive Manufacture of large-scale components....... This research identifies that the rapid lift and repositioning capabilities of delta robots can reduce defects on extruded 3D printed parts when compared to traditional Cartesian motion systems. This is largely due to the fact that repositioning is so rapid that the extruded strand is instantly broken...

  13. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess land use impact on water resources in an East African watershed (United States)

    Baker, Tracy J.; Miller, Scott N.


    SummaryLand cover and land use changes in Kenya's Rift Valley have altered the hydrologic response of the River Njoro watershed by changing the partitioning of excess rainfall into surface discharge and groundwater recharge. The watershed contributes a significant amount of water to Lake Nakuru National Park, an internationally recognized Ramsar site, as well as groundwater supplies for local communities and the city of Nakuru. Three land use maps representing a 17-year period when the region underwent significant transitions served as inputs for hydrologic modeling using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, a GIS-based hydrologic modeling system. AGWA was used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrologic model suitable for assessing the relative impact of land cover change on hydrologic response. The SWAT model was calibrated using observation data taken during the 1990s with high annual concordance. Simulation results showed that land use changes have resulted in corresponding increases in surface runoff and decreases in groundwater recharge. Hydrologic changes were highly variable both spatially and temporally, and the uppermost reaches of the forested highlands were most significantly affected. These changes have negative implications for the ecological health of the river system as well as Lake Nakuru and local communities.

  14. Application of variance components estimation to calibrate geoid error models. (United States)

    Guo, Dong-Mei; Xu, Hou-Ze


    The method of using Global Positioning System-leveling data to obtain orthometric heights has been well studied. A simple formulation for the weighted least squares problem has been presented in an earlier work. This formulation allows one directly employing the errors-in-variables models which completely descript the covariance matrices of the observables. However, an important question that what accuracy level can be achieved has not yet to be satisfactorily solved by this traditional formulation. One of the main reasons for this is the incorrectness of the stochastic models in the adjustment, which in turn allows improving the stochastic models of measurement noises. Therefore the issue of determining the stochastic modeling of observables in the combined adjustment with heterogeneous height types will be a main focus point in this paper. Firstly, the well-known method of variance component estimation is employed to calibrate the errors of heterogeneous height data in a combined least square adjustment of ellipsoidal, orthometric and gravimetric geoid. Specifically, the iterative algorithms of minimum norm quadratic unbiased estimation are used to estimate the variance components for each of heterogeneous observations. Secondly, two different statistical models are presented to illustrate the theory. The first method directly uses the errors-in-variables as a priori covariance matrices and the second method analyzes the biases of variance components and then proposes bias-corrected variance component estimators. Several numerical test results show the capability and effectiveness of the variance components estimation procedure in combined adjustment for calibrating geoid error model.

  15. Calibrating the Abaqus Crushable Foam Material Model using UNM Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schembri, Philip E. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States); Lewis, Matthew W. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)


    Triaxial test data from the University of New Mexico and uniaxial test data from W-14 is used to calibrate the Abaqus crushable foam material model to represent the syntactic foam comprised of APO-BMI matrix and carbon microballoons used in the W76. The material model is an elasto-plasticity model in which the yield strength depends on pressure. Both the elastic properties and the yield stress are estimated by fitting a line to the elastic region of each test response. The model parameters are fit to the data (in a non-rigorous way) to provide both a conservative and not-conservative material model. The model is verified to perform as intended by comparing the values of pressure and shear stress at yield, as well as the shear and volumetric stress-strain response, to the test data.

  16. Evaluation of multivariate calibration models transferred between spectroscopic instruments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Carl Emil Aae; Hansen, Per W.; Skov, Thomas


    for the same samples using the transferred model. However, sometimes the success of a model transfer is evaluated by comparing the transferred model predictions with the reference values. This is not optimal, as uncertainties in the reference method will impact the evaluation. This paper proposes a new method...... for calibration model transfer evaluation. The new method is based on comparing predictions from different instruments, rather than comparing predictions and reference values. A total of 75 flour samples were available for the study. All samples were measured on ten near infrared (NIR) instruments from two......, this paper highlights the problems of including reference values in the evaluation of a model transfer, as uncertainties in the reference method impact the evaluation. At the same time, this paper highlights the power of the proposed model transfer evaluation, which is based on comparing predictions obtained...

  17. A Linear Viscoelastic Model Calibration of Sylgard 184.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, Kevin Nicholas; Brown, Judith Alice


    We calibrate a linear thermoviscoelastic model for solid Sylgard 184 (90-10 formulation), a lightly cross-linked, highly flexible isotropic elastomer for use both in Sierra / Solid Mechanics via the Universal Polymer Model as well as in Sierra / Structural Dynamics (Salinas) for use as an isotropic viscoelastic material. Material inputs for the calibration in both codes are provided. The frequency domain master curve of oscillatory shear was obtained from a report from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). However, because the form of that data is different from the constitutive models in Sierra, we also present the mapping of the LANL data onto Sandia’s constitutive models. Finally, blind predictions of cyclic tension and compression out to moderate strains of 40 and 20% respectively are compared with Sandia’s legacy cure schedule material. Although the strain rate of the data is unknown, the linear thermoviscoelastic model accurately predicts the experiments out to moderate strains for the slower strain rates, which is consistent with the expectation that quasistatic test procedures were likely followed. This good agreement comes despite the different cure schedules between the Sandia and LANL data.

  18. Assessing the Efficacy of the SWAT Auto-Irrigation Function to Simulate Irrigation, Evapotranspiration, and Crop Response to Management Strategies of the Texas High Plains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Chen


    Full Text Available In the semi-arid Texas High Plains, the underlying Ogallala Aquifer is experiencing continuing decline due to long-term pumping for irrigation with limited recharge. Accurate simulation of irrigation and other associated water balance components are critical for meaningful evaluation of the effects of irrigation management strategies. Modelers often employ auto-irrigation functions within models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. However, some studies have raised concerns as to whether the function is able to adequately simulate representative irrigation practices. In this study, observations of climate, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET, leaf area index (LAI, and crop yield derived from an irrigated lysimeter field at the USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory at Bushland, Texas were used to evaluate the efficacy of the SWAT auto-irrigation functions. Results indicated good agreement between simulated and observed daily ET during both model calibration (2001–2005 and validation (2006–2010 periods for the baseline scenario (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency; NSE ≥ 0.80. The auto-irrigation scenarios resulted in reasonable ET simulations under all the thresholds of soil water deficit (SWD triggers as indicated by NSE values > 0.5. However, the auto-irrigation function did not adequately represent field practices, due to the continuation of irrigation after crop maturity and excessive irrigation when SWD triggers were less than the static irrigation amount.

  19. Simple Parametric Model for Intensity Calibration of Cassini Composite Infrared Spectrometer Data (United States)

    Brasunas, J.; Mamoutkine, A.; Gorius, N.


    Accurate intensity calibration of a linear Fourier-transform spectrometer typically requires the unknown science target and the two calibration targets to be acquired under identical conditions. We present a simple model suitable for vector calibration that enables accurate calibration via adjustments of measured spectral amplitudes and phases when these three targets are recorded at different detector or optics temperatures. Our model makes calibration more accurate both by minimizing biases due to changing instrument temperatures that are always present at some level and by decreasing estimate variance through incorporating larger averages of science and calibration interferogram scans.

  20. Calibration of the simulation model of the VINCY cyclotron magnet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirković Saša


    Full Text Available The MERMAID program will be used to isochronise the nominal magnetic field of the VINCY Cyclotron. This program simulates the response, i. e. calculates the magnetic field, of a previously defined model of a magnet. The accuracy of 3D field calculation depends on the density of the grid points in the simulation model grid. The size of the VINCY Cyclotron and the maximum number of grid points in the XY plane limited by MERMAID define the maximumobtainable accuracy of field calculations. Comparisons of the field simulated with maximum obtainable accuracy with the magnetic field measured in the first phase of the VINCY Cyclotron magnetic field measurements campaign has shown that the difference between these two fields is not as small as required. Further decrease of the difference between these fields is obtained by the simulation model calibration, i. e. by adjusting the current through the main coils in the simulation model.

  1. Calibration of the simulation model of the Vincy cyclotron magnet

    CERN Document Server

    Cirkovic, S; Vorozhtsov, A S; Vorozhtsov, S B


    The MERMAID program will be used to isochronise the nominal magnetic field of the VINCY Cyclotron. This program simulates the response, i. e. calculates the magnetic field, of a previously defined model of a magnet. The accuracy of 3D field calculation depends on the density of the grid points in the simulation model grid. The size of the VINCY Cyclotron and the maximum number of grid points in the XY plane limited by MERMAID define the maximum obtainable accuracy of field calculations. Comparisons of the field simulated with maximum obtainable accuracy with the magnetic field measured in the first phase of the VINCY Cyclotron magnetic field measurements campaign has shown that the difference between these two fields is not as small as required. Further decrease of the difference between these fields is obtained by the simulation model calibration, i. e. by adjusting the current through the main coils in the simulation model.

  2. Calibration of a DG–model for fluorescence microscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Christian Valdemar

    ) is an impor- tant and widely used microscopy method for visualization of molecular transport processes in living cells. Thus, the motivation for making an automated reliable analysis of the image data is high. In this contribution, we present and comment on the calibration of a Discontinuous......–Galerkin simulator [3, 4] on segmented cell images. The cell geometry is extracted from FLIP images using the Chan– Vese active contours algorithm [1] while the DG simulator is implemented in FEniCS [5]. Simulated FLIP sequences based on optimal parameters from the PDE model are presented, with an overall goal...... of making an automated analysis tool for FLIP images....

  3. Testing calibration routines for LISFLOOD, a distributed hydrological model (United States)

    Pannemans, B.


    Traditionally hydrological models are considered as difficult to calibrate: their highly non-linearity results in rugged and rough response surfaces were calibration algorithms easily get stuck in local minima. For the calibration of distributed hydrological models two extra factors play an important role: on the one hand they are often costly on computation, thus restricting the feasible number of model runs; on the other hand their distributed nature smooths the response surface, thus facilitating the search for a global minimum. Lisflood is a distributed hydrological model currently used for the European Flood Alert System - EFAS (Van der Knijff et al, 2008). Its upcoming recalibration over more then 200 catchments, each with an average runtime of 2-3 minutes, proved a perfect occasion to put several existing calibration algorithms to the test. The tested routines are Downhill Simplex (DHS, Nelder and Mead, 1965), SCEUA (Duan et Al. 1993), SCEM (Vrugt et al., 2003) and AMALGAM (Vrugt et al., 2008), and they were evaluated on their capability to efficiently converge onto the global minimum and on the spread in the found solutions in repeated runs. The routines were let loose on a simple hyperbolic function, on a Lisflood catchment using model output as observation, and on two Lisflood catchments using real observations (one on the river Inn in the Alps, the other along the downstream stretch of the Elbe). On the mathematical problem and on the catchment with synthetic observations DHS proved to be the fastest and the most efficient in finding a solution. SCEUA and AMALGAM are a slower, but while SCEUA keeps converging on the exact solution, AMALGAM slows down after about 600 runs. For the Lisflood models with real-time observations AMALGAM (hybrid algorithm that combines several other algorithms, we used CMA, PSO and GA) came as fastest out of the tests, and giving comparable results in consecutive runs. However, some more work is needed to tweak the stopping

  4. A critical comparison of systematic calibration protocols for activated sludge models: a SWOT analysis. (United States)

    Sin, Gürkan; Van Hulle, Stijn W H; De Pauw, Dirk J W; van Griensven, Ann; Vanrolleghem, Peter A


    Modelling activated sludge systems has gained an increasing momentum after the introduction of activated sludge models (ASMs) in 1987. Application of dynamic models for full-scale systems requires essentially a calibration of the chosen ASM to the case under study. Numerous full-scale model applications have been performed so far which were mostly based on ad hoc approaches and expert knowledge. Further, each modelling study has followed a different calibration approach: e.g. different influent wastewater characterization methods, different kinetic parameter estimation methods, different selection of parameters to be calibrated, different priorities within the calibration steps, etc. In short, there was no standard approach in performing the calibration study, which makes it difficult, if not impossible, to (1) compare different calibrations of ASMs with each other and (2) perform internal quality checks for each calibration study. To address these concerns, systematic calibration protocols have recently been proposed to bring guidance to the modeling of activated sludge systems and in particular to the calibration of full-scale models. In this contribution four existing calibration approaches (BIOMATH, HSG, STOWA and WERF) will be critically discussed using a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis. It will also be assessed in what way these approaches can be further developed in view of further improving the quality of ASM calibration. In this respect, the potential of automating some steps of the calibration procedure by use of mathematical algorithms is highlighted.

  5. Geomechanical Simulation of Bayou Choctaw Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Model Calibration.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Byoung [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)


    A finite element numerical analysis model has been constructed that consists of a realistic mesh capturing the geometries of Bayou Choctaw (BC) Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) site and multi - mechanism deformation ( M - D ) salt constitutive model using the daily data of actual wellhead pressure and oil - brine interface. The salt creep rate is not uniform in the salt dome, and the creep test data for BC salt is limited. Therefore, the model calibration is necessary to simulate the geomechanical behavior of the salt dome. The cavern volumetric closures of SPR caverns calculated from CAVEMAN are used for the field baseline measurement. The structure factor, A 2 , and transient strain limit factor, K 0 , in the M - D constitutive model are used for the calibration. The A 2 value obtained experimentally from the BC salt and K 0 value of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) salt are used for the baseline values. T o adjust the magnitude of A 2 and K 0 , multiplication factors A2F and K0F are defined, respectively. The A2F and K0F values of the salt dome and salt drawdown skins surrounding each SPR cavern have been determined through a number of back fitting analyses. The cavern volumetric closures calculated from this model correspond to the predictions from CAVEMAN for six SPR caverns. Therefore, this model is able to predict past and future geomechanical behaviors of the salt dome, caverns, caprock , and interbed layers. The geological concerns issued in the BC site will be explained from this model in a follow - up report .

  6. Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Senent-Aparicio


    Full Text Available The Segura River Basin is one of the most water-stressed basins in Mediterranean Europe. If we add to the actual situation that most climate change projections forecast important decreases in water resource availability in the Mediterranean region, the situation will become totally unsustainable. This study assessed the impact of climate change in the headwaters of the Segura River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT with bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data from two Regional Climate Models (RCMs for the medium term (2041–2070 and the long term (2071–2100 under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bias correction was performed using the distribution mapping approach. The fuzzy TOPSIS technique was applied to rank a set of nine GCM–RCM combinations, choosing the climate models with a higher relative closeness. The study results show that the SWAT performed satisfactorily for both calibration (NSE = 0.80 and validation (NSE = 0.77 periods. Comparing the long-term and baseline (1971–2000 periods, precipitation showed a negative trend between 6% and 32%, whereas projected annual mean temperatures demonstrated an estimated increase of 1.5–3.3 °C. Water resources were estimated to experience a decrease of 2%–54%. These findings provide local water management authorities with very useful information in the face of climate change.

  7. Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System Modeling, Calibration, and Error Analysis (United States)

    Karlgaard, Christopher D.; VanNorman, John; Siemers, Paul M.; Schoenenberger, Mark; Munk, Michelle M.


    The Mars Science Laboratory (MSL) Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation (MEDLI)/Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System (MEADS) project installed seven pressure ports through the MSL Phenolic Impregnated Carbon Ablator (PICA) heatshield to measure heatshield surface pressures during entry. These measured surface pressures are used to generate estimates of atmospheric quantities based on modeled surface pressure distributions. In particular, the quantities to be estimated from the MEADS pressure measurements include the dynamic pressure, angle of attack, and angle of sideslip. This report describes the calibration of the pressure transducers utilized to reconstruct the atmospheric data and associated uncertainty models, pressure modeling and uncertainty analysis, and system performance results. The results indicate that the MEADS pressure measurement system hardware meets the project requirements.

  8. LED-based Photometric Stereo: Modeling, Calibration and Numerical Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quéau, Yvain; Durix, Bastien; Wu, Tao


    We conduct a thorough study of photometric stereo under nearby point light source illumination, from modeling to numerical solution, through calibration. In the classical formulation of photometric stereo, the luminous fluxes are assumed to be directional, which is very difficult to achieve...... in practice. Rather, we use light-emitting diodes to illuminate the scene to be reconstructed. Such point light sources are very convenient to use, yet they yield a more complex photometric stereo model which is arduous to solve. We first derive in a physically sound manner this model, and show how...... approach is not established. The second one directly recovers the depth, by formulating photometric stereo as a system of nonlinear partial differential equations (PDEs), which are linearized using image ratios. Although the sequential approach is avoided, initialization matters a lot and convergence...

  9. Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Li, Tiejian; Sun, Liqun; Chen, Ji


    With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

  10. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models. (United States)

    Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier


    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

  11. A joint calibration model for combining predictive distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Agati


    Full Text Available In many research fields, as for example in probabilistic weather forecasting, valuable predictive information about a future random phenomenon may come from several, possibly heterogeneous, sources. Forecast combining methods have been developed over the years in order to deal with ensembles of sources: the aim is to combine several predictions in such a way to improve forecast accuracy and reduce risk of bad forecasts.In this context, we propose the use of a Bayesian approach to information combining, which consists in treating the predictive probability density functions (pdfs from the individual ensemble members as data in a Bayesian updating problem. The likelihood function is shown to be proportional to the product of the pdfs, adjusted by a joint “calibration function” describing the predicting skill of the sources (Morris, 1977. In this paper, after rephrasing Morris’ algorithm in a predictive context, we propose to model the calibration function in terms of bias, scale and correlation and to estimate its parameters according to the least squares criterion. The performance of our method is investigated and compared with that of Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery, 2005 on simulated data.

  12. Impact of different individual GNSS receiver antenna calibration models on geodetic positioning (United States)

    Baire, Q.; Pottiaux, E.; Bruyninx, C.; Defraigne, P.; Aerts, W.; Legrand, J.; Bergeot, N.; Chevalier, J. M.


    Since April 2011, the igs08.atx antenna calibration model is used in the routine IGS (International GNSS Service) data analysis. The model includes mean robot calibrations to correct for the offset and phase center variations of the GNSS receiver antennas. These so-called "type" calibrations are means of the individual calibrations available for a specific antenna/radome combination. The GNSS data analysis performed within the EUREF Permanent Network (EPN) aims at being as consistent as possible with the IGS analysis. This also applies to the receiver antenna calibrations. However, when available, individual antenna calibrations are used within the EPN analysis instead of the "type" calibration. When these individual calibrations are unavailable, then the EPN analysis falls back to (type) calibrations identical as the ones used within the IGS (igs08.atx). The aim of this study is to evaluate the significance of the offset caused by using different receiver antenna calibration models on the station position. Using the PPP (Precise Point Positioning) technique, we first investigate the differences in positioning obtained when switching between individual antenna calibrations and type calibrations. We analyze the observations of the 43 EPN stations equipped with receiver antenna individually calibrated over the period covering from 2003 to 2010 and we show that these differences can reach up to 4 mm in horizontal and 10 mm in vertical. Secondly, we study the accuracy of the individual calibrations models and we evaluate the effect of different sets of individual calibrations on the positioning. For that purpose, we use the data from 6 GNSS stations equipped with an antenna which has been individually calibrated at two calibration facilities recognized by the IGS: GEO++ and Bonn institute.

  13. Modeling Prairie Pothole Lakes: Linking Satellite Observation and Calibration (Invited) (United States)

    Schwartz, F. W.; Liu, G.; Zhang, B.; Yu, Z.


    This paper examines the response of a complex lake wetland system to variations in climate. The focus is on the lakes and wetlands of the Missouri Coteau, which is part of the larger Prairie Pothole Region of the Central Plains of North America. Information on lake size was enumerated from satellite images, and yielded power law relationships for different hydrological conditions. More traditional lake-stage data were made available to us from the USGS Cottonwood Lake Study Site in North Dakota. A Probabilistic Hydrologic Model (PHM) was developed to simulate lake complexes comprised of tens-of-thousands or more individual closed-basin lakes and wetlands. What is new about this model is a calibration scheme that utilizes remotely-sensed data on lake area as well as stage data for individual lakes. Some ¼ million individual data points are used within a Genetic Algorithm to calibrate the model by comparing the simulated results with observed lake area-frequency power law relationships derived from Landsat images and water depths from seven individual lakes and wetlands. The simulated lake behaviors show good agreement with the observations under average, dry, and wet climatic conditions. The calibrated model is used to examine the impact of climate variability on a large lake complex in ND, in particular, the “Dust Bowl Drought” 1930s. This most famous drought of the 20th Century devastated the agricultural economy of the Great Plains with health and social impacts lingering for years afterwards. Interestingly, the drought of 1930s is unremarkable in relation to others of greater intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the Great Plains. Major droughts and deluges have the ability to create marked variability of the power law function (e.g. up to one and a half orders of magnitude variability from the extreme Dust Bowl Drought to the extreme 1993-2001 deluge). This new probabilistic modeling approach provides a novel tool to examine the response of the

  14. Assimilating Remotely Sensed Surface Soil Moisture into SWAT using Ensemble Kalman Filter (United States)

    In this study, a 1-D Ensemble Kalman Filter has been used to update the soil moisture states of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Experiments were conducted for the Cobb Creek Watershed in southeastern Oklahoma for 2006-2008. Assimilation of in situ data proved limited success in the ...

  15. Non-linear calibration models for near infrared spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ni, Wangdong; Nørgaard, Lars; Mørup, Morten


    -linear models on linear problems, robustness to small or medium sample sets, and robustness to pre-processing, are discussed. The results suggest that GPR and BANN are powerful and promising methods for handling linear as well as nonlinear systems, even when the data sets are moderately small. The LS......-SVM), relevance vector machines (RVM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), artificial neural network (ANN), and Bayesian ANN (BANN). In this comparison, partial least squares (PLS) regression is used as a linear benchmark, while the relationship of the methods is considered in terms of traditional calibration...... by ridge regression (RR). The performance of the different methods is demonstrated by their practical applications using three real-life near infrared (NIR) data sets. Different aspects of the various approaches including computational time, model interpretability, potential over-fitting using the non...

  16. Using land subsidence observations for groundwater model calibration (United States)

    Tufekci, Nesrin; Schoups, Gerrit; Faitouri, Mohamed Al; Mahapatra, Pooja; van de Giesen, Nick; Hanssen, Ramon


    PS-InSAR derived subsidence and groundwater level time series are used to calibrate a groundwater model of Tazerbo well field, Libya, by estimating spatially varying elastic skeletal storage (Sske) and hydraulic conductivity (Hk) of the model area. Tazerbo well field is a part of the Great Man-Made River Project (GMMRP) designed with 108 wells and total pumping rate of 1 million m3/day. The water is pumped from the deep sandstone aquifer (Nubian sandstone), which is overlaid by a thick mudstone-siltstone aquitard. Pumping related deformation patterns around Tazerbo well field are obtained by processing 20 descending Envisat scenes for the period between 2004 and 2010, which yield a concentrated deformation around the well field with the maximum deformation rate around 4 mm/yr. The trends of time series of groundwater head and subsidence are in good agreement for observation wells located in the vicinity of the pumping wells and the pattern of subsidence correlates with the locations of active wells. At the beginning of calibration, different pairs of Sske and Hk are assigned at observation well locations by trial and error so that the simulation results of the forward model would approximate heads and mean linear deformation velocity at these locations. Accordingly, the estimated initial parameters suggest relatively constant Hk(5 m/d) and increasing Sske from south to north (1x10-6 m-1 - 5x10-6 m-1). In order to refine their spatial distribution, representative values of Sske and Hk are assigned at 25 equidistant points over the area, which are restricted by the predetermined values. To calibrate the parameters at assigned locations UCODE is used along with MATLAB. Once the convergence is achieved the estimated parameter values at these locations are held constant and new "in between - equidistant" locations are determined to estimate Sske and Hk in order to spatially refine their distribution. This approach is followed until the relation between observed and

  17. A New Perspective for the Calibration of Computational Predictor Models.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crespo, Luis Guillermo


    This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from sev- eral and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncer- tainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of obser- vations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it is a description of the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain (i.e., roll-up and extrapolation).

  18. Experiences with GOCE models in SONMICAT-BCN calibration site. (United States)

    Martinez-Benjamin, J. J.; Termens, A.; Pros, F.


    SONMICAT - the integrated sea level observation system of Catalonia - aims at providing high-quality continous measurements of sea- and land levels at the Catalan coast from tide gauges and from modern geodetic techniques for studies on long-term sea level trends, but also the calibration of satellite altimeters, for instance. This synergy is indeed the only way to get a clear and unambigous picture of what is actually going on at the coast of Catalonia. Actually, there is a gap of sea level data in the coastal area of Catalonia, although several groups have started to do some work. SONMICAT will fill it and, as a goal, will be a regional implementation and densification of the GGOS . In the framework of SONMICAT project, the sea level infrastructure has been improved by providing the harbour of Barcelona with 3 tide gauges and a GPS station nearby. Furthermore, an airborne LiDAR campaign was carried out with two strips along two ICESat target tracks. The work focuses on the comparison between the GOCE gravity field solutions with existing local an regional gravity field models over the area of Barcelona harbour. The study will estimate how GOCE works on SONMICAT-BCN calibration site in order to prepare future geomatics issues .

  19. VS2DI: Model use, calibration, and validation (United States)

    Healy, Richard W.; Essaid, Hedeff I.


    VS2DI is a software package for simulating water, solute, and heat transport through soils or other porous media under conditions of variable saturation. The package contains a graphical preprocessor for constructing simulations, a postprocessor for displaying simulation results, and numerical models that solve for flow and solute transport (VS2DT) and flow and heat transport (VS2DH). Flow is described by the Richards equation, and solute and heat transport are described by advection-dispersion equations; the finite-difference method is used to solve these equations. Problems can be simulated in one, two, or three (assuming radial symmetry) dimensions. This article provides an overview of calibration techniques that have been used with VS2DI; included is a detailed description of calibration procedures used in simulating the interaction between groundwater and a stream fed by drainage from agricultural fields in central Indiana. Brief descriptions of VS2DI and the various types of problems that have been addressed with the software package are also presented.

  20. Modified calibration protocol evaluated in a model-based testing of SBR flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corominas, Lluís; Sin, Gürkan; Puig, Sebastià


    The purpose of this paper is to refine the BIOMATH calibration protocol for SBR systems, in particular to develop a pragmatic calibration protocol that takes advantage of SBR information-rich data, defines a simulation strategy to obtain proper initial conditions for model calibration and provide...

  1. Impacts of Climate and Land Use/Cover Change on Streamflow Using SWAT and a Separation Method for the Xiying River Basin in Northwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Guo


    Full Text Available A better understanding of the effects of climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC on streamflow promotes the long-term water planning and management in the arid regions of northwestern China. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and a separation approach were used to evaluate and separate the effects of climate change and LUCC on streamflow in the Xiying River basin. The SWAT model was calibrated by the hydro-meteorological data from 1980–1989 to obtain the optimum parameters, which were validated by the subsequent application to the period between 1990–2008. Moreover, streamflow under several scenarios with different climate change and land use conditions in 1990–2008 and 2010–2069 were further investigated. Results indicate that, in the period of 1990–2008, the streamflow was dominated by climate change (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature, which led to a 102.8% increase in the mean annual streamflow, whereas LUCC produced a decrease of 2.8%. Furthermore, in the future period of 2010–2039, the mean annual streamflow will decrease by 5.4% and 4.5% compared with the data of 1961–1990 under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively, while it will decrease by 21.2% and 16.9% in the period of 2040–2069, respectively.

  2. New SWAT tile drain equations: Modifications, Calibration, Validation, and Application (United States)

    Subsurface tile drainage is a commonly used agricultural practice to enhance crop yield in poorly drained but highly productive soils in many other regions of the world. However, the presence of subsurface tile drainage systems also expedites the transport of nitrate-nitrogen (NO3-N) and other chemi...

  3. Hydrologic Response Unit Routing in SWAT to Simulate Effects of Vegetated Filter Strip for South-Korean Conditions Based on VFSMOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung Jae Lim


    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model has been used worldwide for many hydrologic and Non-Point Source (NPS Pollution analyses on a watershed scale. However, it has many limitations in simulating the Vegetative Filter Strip (VFS because it considers only ‘filter strip width’ when the model estimates sediment trapping efficiency and does not consider the routing of sediment with overland flow which is expected to maximize the sediment trapping efficiency from upper agricultural subwatersheds to lower spatially-explicit filter strips. Therefore, the SWAT overland flow option between landuse-subwatersheds with sediment routing capability was enhanced by modifying the SWAT watershed configuration and SWAT engine based on the numerical model VFSMOD applied to South-Korean conditions. The enhanced SWAT can simulate the VFS sediment trapping efficiency for South-Korean conditions in a manner similar to the desktop VFSMOD-w system. Due to this enhancement, SWAT is applicable to simulate the effects of overland flow from upper subwatersheds to reflect increased runoff volume at the lower subwatershed, which occurs in the field if no diversion channel is installed. In this study, the enhanced SWAT model was applied to small watersheds located at Jaun-ri in South-Korea to simulate a diversion channel and spatially-explicit VFS. Sediment can be reduced by 31%, 65%, and 68%, with a diversion channel, the VFS, and the VFS with diversion channel, respectively. The enhanced SWAT should be used in estimating site-specific effects on sediment reduction with diversion channels and VFS, instead of the currently available SWAT, which does not simulate sediment routing in overland flow and does not consider other sensitive factors affecting sediment reduction with VFS.

  4. Comparison of two potato simulation models under climate change. I. Model calibration and sensitivity analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.


    To analyse the effects of climate change on potato growth and production, both a simple growth model, POTATOS, and a comprehensive model, NPOTATO, were applied. Both models were calibrated and tested against results from experiments and variety trials in The Netherlands. The sensitivity of model

  5. Comparison of two soya bean simulation models under climate change : I Model calibration and sensitivity analyses

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wolf, J.


    To analyse the effects of climate change on soya bean growth and production, both a simple growth model, SOYBEANW, and a comprehensive model, CROPGRO, have been applied. Both models were calibrated and tested against results from soya bean trials at Toulouse, France. The sensitivity of model results

  6. Estimated landmark calibration of biomechanical models for inverse kinematics. (United States)

    Trinler, Ursula; Baker, Richard


    Inverse kinematics is emerging as the optimal method in movement analysis to fit a multi-segment biomechanical model to experimental marker positions. A key part of this process is calibrating the model to the dimensions of the individual being analysed which requires scaling of the model, pose estimation and localisation of tracking markers within the relevant segment coordinate systems. The aim of this study is to propose a generic technique for this process and test a specific application to the OpenSim model Gait2392. Kinematic data from 10 healthy adult participants were captured in static position and normal walking. Results showed good average static and dynamic fitting errors between virtual and experimental markers of 0.8 cm and 0.9 cm, respectively. Highest fitting errors were found on the epicondyle (static), feet (static, dynamic) and on the thigh (dynamic). These result from inconsistencies between the model geometry and degrees of freedom and the anatomy and movement pattern of the individual participants. A particular limitation is in estimating anatomical landmarks from the bone meshes supplied with Gait2392 which do not conform with the bone morphology of the participants studied. Soft tissue artefact will also affect fitting the model to walking trials. Copyright © 2017 IPEM. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Root zone water quality model (RZWQM2): Model use, calibration and validation (United States)

    Ma, Liwang; Ahuja, Lajpat; Nolan, B.T.; Malone, Robert; Trout, Thomas; Qi, Z.


    The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) has been used widely for simulating agricultural management effects on crop production and soil and water quality. Although it is a one-dimensional model, it has many desirable features for the modeling community. This article outlines the principles of calibrating the model component by component with one or more datasets and validating the model with independent datasets. Users should consult the RZWQM2 user manual distributed along with the model and a more detailed protocol on how to calibrate RZWQM2 provided in a book chapter. Two case studies (or examples) are included in this article. One is from an irrigated maize study in Colorado to illustrate the use of field and laboratory measured soil hydraulic properties on simulated soil water and crop production. It also demonstrates the interaction between soil and plant parameters in simulated plant responses to water stresses. The other is from a maize-soybean rotation study in Iowa to show a manual calibration of the model for crop yield, soil water, and N leaching in tile-drained soils. Although the commonly used trial-and-error calibration method works well for experienced users, as shown in the second example, an automated calibration procedure is more objective, as shown in the first example. Furthermore, the incorporation of the Parameter Estimation Software (PEST) into RZWQM2 made the calibration of the model more efficient than a grid (ordered) search of model parameters. In addition, PEST provides sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that should help users in selecting the right parameters to calibrate.

  8. Input variable selection and calibration data selection for storm water quality regression models. (United States)

    Sun, Siao; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc


    Storm water quality models are useful tools in storm water management. Interest has been growing in analyzing existing data for developing models for urban storm water quality evaluations. It is important to select appropriate model inputs when many candidate explanatory variables are available. Model calibration and verification are essential steps in any storm water quality modeling. This study investigates input variable selection and calibration data selection in storm water quality regression models. The two selection problems are mutually interacted. A procedure is developed in order to fulfil the two selection tasks in order. The procedure firstly selects model input variables using a cross validation method. An appropriate number of variables are identified as model inputs to ensure that a model is neither overfitted nor underfitted. Based on the model input selection results, calibration data selection is studied. Uncertainty of model performances due to calibration data selection is investigated with a random selection method. An approach using the cluster method is applied in order to enhance model calibration practice based on the principle of selecting representative data for calibration. The comparison between results from the cluster selection method and random selection shows that the former can significantly improve performances of calibrated models. It is found that the information content in calibration data is important in addition to the size of calibration data.

  9. Linking big models to big data: efficient ecosystem model calibration through Bayesian model emulation (United States)

    Fer, I.; Kelly, R.; Andrews, T.; Dietze, M.; Richardson, A. D.


    Our ability to forecast ecosystems is limited by how well we parameterize ecosystem models. Direct measurements for all model parameters are not always possible and inverse estimation of these parameters through Bayesian methods is computationally costly. A solution to computational challenges of Bayesian calibration is to approximate the posterior probability surface using a Gaussian Process that emulates the complex process-based model. Here we report the integration of this method within an ecoinformatics toolbox, Predictive Ecosystem Analyzer (PEcAn), and its application with two ecosystem models: SIPNET and ED2.1. SIPNET is a simple model, allowing application of MCMC methods both to the model itself and to its emulator. We used both approaches to assimilate flux (CO2 and latent heat), soil respiration, and soil carbon data from Bartlett Experimental Forest. This comparison showed that emulator is reliable in terms of convergence to the posterior distribution. A 10000-iteration MCMC analysis with SIPNET itself required more than two orders of magnitude greater computation time than an MCMC run of same length with its emulator. This difference would be greater for a more computationally demanding model. Validation of the emulator-calibrated SIPNET against both the assimilated data and out-of-sample data showed improved fit and reduced uncertainty around model predictions. We next applied the validated emulator method to the ED2, whose complexity precludes standard Bayesian data assimilation. We used the ED2 emulator to assimilate demographic data from a network of inventory plots. For validation of the calibrated ED2, we compared the model to results from Empirical Succession Mapping (ESM), a novel synthesis of successional patterns in Forest Inventory and Analysis data. Our results revealed that while the pre-assimilation ED2 formulation cannot capture the emergent demographic patterns from ESM analysis, constrained model parameters controlling demographic

  10. Hydrological processes and model representation: impact of soft data on calibration (United States)

    J.G. Arnold; M.A. Youssef; H. Yen; M.J. White; A.Y. Sheshukov; A.M. Sadeghi; D.N. Moriasi; J.L. Steiner; Devendra Amatya; R.W. Skaggs; E.B. Haney; J. Jeong; M. Arabi; P.H. Gowda


    Hydrologic and water quality models are increasingly used to determine the environmental impacts of climate variability and land management. Due to differing model objectives and differences in monitored data, there are currently no universally accepted procedures for model calibration and validation in the literature. In an effort to develop accepted model calibration...

  11. Combined calibration and sensitivity analysis for a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Perk, van der M.; Bierkens, M.F.P.


    A study was performed to quantify the error in results of a water quality model of the Biebrza River, Poland, due to uncertainties in calibrated model parameters. The procedure used in this study combines calibration and sensitivity analysis. Finally,the model was validated to test the model

  12. Using Runoff Data to Calibrate the Community Land Model (United States)

    Ray, J.; Hou, Z.; Huang, M.; Swiler, L.


    We present a statistical method for calibrating the Community Land Model (CLM) using streamflow observations collected between 1999 and 2008 at the outlet of two river basins from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX), Oostanaula River at Resaca GA, and Walnut River at Winfield KS.. The observed streamflow shows variability over a large range of time-scales, none of which significantly dominates the others; consequently, the time-series seems noisy and is difficult to be directly used in model parameter estimation efforts without significant filtering. We perform a multi-resolution wavelet decomposition of the observed streamflow, and use the wavelet power coefficients (WPC) as the tuning data. We construct a mapping (a surrogate model) between WPC and three hydrological parameters of the CLM using a training set of 256 CLM runs. The dependence of WPC on the parameters is complex and cannot be captured using a surrogate unless the parameter combinations yield physically plausible model predictions, i.e., those that are skillful when compared to observations. Retaining only the top quartile of the runs ensures skillfulness, as measured by the RMS error between observations and CLM predictions. This "screening" of the training data yields a region (the "valid" region) in the parameter space where accurate surrogate models can be created. We construct a classifier for the "valid" region, and, in conjunction with the surrogate models for WPC, pose a Bayesian inverse problem for the three hydrological parameters. The inverse problem is solved using an adaptive Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) method to construct a three-dimensional posterior distribution for the hydrological parameters. Posterior predictive tests using the surrogate model reveal that the posterior distribution is more predictive than the nominal values of the parameters, which are used as default values in the current version of CLM. The effectiveness of the inversion is then validated by

  13. NSLS-II: Nonlinear Model Calibration for Synchrotrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bengtsson, J.


    This tech note is essentially a summary of a lecture we delivered to the Acc. Phys. Journal Club Apr, 2010. However, since the estimated accuracy of these methods has been naive and misleading in the field of particle accelerators, i.e., ignores the impact of noise, we will elaborate on this in some detail. A prerequisite for a calibration of the nonlinear Hamiltonian is that the quadratic part has been understood, i.e., that the linear optics for the real accelerator has been calibrated. For synchrotron light source operations, this problem has been solved by the interactive LOCO technique/tool (Linear Optics from Closed Orbits). Before that, in the context of hadron accelerators, it has been done by signal processing of turn-by-turn BPM data. We have outlined how to make a basic calibration of the nonlinear model for synchrotrons. In particular, we have shown how this was done for LEAR, CERN (antiprotons) in the mid-80s. Specifically, our accuracy for frequency estimation was {approx} 1 x 10{sup -5} for 1024 turns (to calibrate the linear optics) and {approx} 1 x 10{sup -4} for 256 turns for tune footprint and betatron spectrum. For a comparison, the estimated tune footprint for stable beam for NSLS-II is {approx}0.1. Since the transverse damping time is {approx}20 msec, i.e., {approx}4,000 turns. There is no fundamental difference for: antiprotons, protons, and electrons in this case. Because the estimated accuracy for these methods in the field of particle accelerators has been naive, i.e., ignoring the impact of noise, we have also derived explicit formula, from first principles, for a quantitative statement. For e.g. N = 256 and 5% noise we obtain {delta}{nu} {approx} 1 x 10{sup -5}. A comparison with the state-of-the-arts in e.g. telecomm and electrical engineering since the 60s is quite revealing. For example, Kalman filter (1960), crucial for the: Ranger, Mariner, and Apollo (including the Lunar Module) missions during the 60s. Or Claude Shannon et al

  14. Calibration of a distributed hydrology and land surface model using energy flux measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Jensen, Karsten H.


    In this study we develop and test a calibration approach on a spatially distributed groundwater-surface water catchment model (MIKE SHE) coupled to a land surface model component with particular focus on the water and energy fluxes. The model is calibrated against time series of eddy flux measure...

  15. Calibration of a COTS Integration Cost Model Using Local Project Data (United States)

    Boland, Dillard; Coon, Richard; Byers, Kathryn; Levitt, David


    The software measures and estimation techniques appropriate to a Commercial Off the Shelf (COTS) integration project differ from those commonly used for custom software development. Labor and schedule estimation tools that model COTS integration are available. Like all estimation tools, they must be calibrated with the organization's local project data. This paper describes the calibration of a commercial model using data collected by the Flight Dynamics Division (FDD) of the NASA Goddard Spaceflight Center (GSFC). The model calibrated is SLIM Release 4.0 from Quantitative Software Management (QSM). By adopting the SLIM reuse model and by treating configuration parameters as lines of code, we were able to establish a consistent calibration for COTS integration projects. The paper summarizes the metrics, the calibration process and results, and the validation of the calibration.

  16. Streamflow characteristics from modeled runoff time series - importance of calibration criteria selection (United States)

    Pool, Sandra; Vis, Marc J. P.; Knight, Rodney R.; Seibert, Jan


    Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV - Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning - model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  17. Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection (United States)

    Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan


    Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  18. Streamflow characteristics from modeled runoff time series – importance of calibration criteria selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Pool


    Full Text Available Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency. An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  19. Application of Iterative Robust Model-based Optimal Experimental Design for the Calibration of Biocatalytic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Daele, Timothy; Gernaey, Krist V.; Ringborg, Rolf Hoffmeyer


    The aim of model calibration is to estimate unique parameter values from available experimental data, here applied to a biocatalytic process. The traditional approach of first gathering data followed by performing a model calibration is inefficient, since the information gathered during...... experimentation is not actively used to optimise the experimental design. By applying an iterative robust model-based optimal experimental design, the limited amount of data collected is used to design additional informative experiments. The algorithm is used here to calibrate the initial reaction rate of an ω......-transaminase catalysed reaction in a more accurate way. The parameter confidence region estimated from the Fisher Information Matrix is compared with the likelihood confidence region, which is a more accurate, but also a computationally more expensive method. As a result, an important deviation between both approaches...

  20. Initial sediment transport model of the mining-affected Aries River Basin, Romania (United States)

    Friedel, Michael J.; Linard, Joshua I.


    The Romanian government is interested in understanding the effects of existing and future mining activities on long-term dispersal, storage, and remobilization of sediment-associated metals. An initial Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was prepared using available data to evaluate hypothetical failure of the Valea Sesei tailings dam at the Rosia Poieni mine in the Aries River basin. Using the available data, the initial Aries River Basin SWAT model could not be manually calibrated to accurately reproduce monthly streamflow values observed at the Turda gage station. The poor simulation of the monthly streamflow is attributed to spatially limited soil and precipitation data, limited constraint information due to spatially and temporally limited streamflow measurements, and in ability to obtain optimal parameter values when using a manual calibration process. Suggestions to improve the Aries River basin sediment transport model include accounting for heterogeneity in model input, a two-tier nonlinear calibration strategy, and analysis of uncertainty in predictions.

  1. Exploring the Effects of Sampling Locations for Calibrating the Huff Model Using Mobile Phone Location Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shiwei Lu


    Full Text Available The introduction of the Huff model is of critical significance in many fields, including urban transport, optimal location planning, economics and business analysis. Moreover, parameters calibration is a crucial procedure before using the model. Previous studies have paid much attention to calibrating the spatial interaction model for human mobility research. However, are whole sampling locations always the better solution for model calibration? We use active tracking data of over 16 million cell phones in Shenzhen, a metropolitan city in China, to evaluate the calibration accuracy of Huff model. Specifically, we choose five business areas in this city as destinations and then randomly select a fixed number of cell phone towers to calibrate the parameters in this spatial interaction model. We vary the selected number of cell phone towers by multipliers of 30 until we reach the total number of towers with flows to the five destinations. We apply the least square methods for model calibration. The distribution of the final sum of squared error between the observed flows and the estimated flows indicates that whole sampling locations are not always better for the outcomes of this spatial interaction model. Instead, fewer sampling locations with higher volume of trips could improve the calibration results. Finally, we discuss implications of this finding and suggest an approach to address the high-accuracy model calibration solution.

  2. Forecasting induced seismicity rate and Mmax using calibrated numerical models (United States)

    Dempsey, D.; Suckale, J.


    At Groningen, The Netherlands, several decades of induced seismicity from gas extraction has culminated in a M 3.6 event (mid 2012). From a public safety and commercial perspective, it is desirable to anticipate future seismicity outcomes at Groningen. One way to quantify earthquake risk is Probabilistic Seismic Hazard Analysis (PSHA), which requires an estimate of the future seismicity rate and its magnitude frequency distribution (MFD). This approach is effective at quantifying risk from tectonic events because the seismicity rate, once measured, is almost constant over timescales of interest. In contrast, rates of induced seismicity vary significantly over building lifetimes, largely in response to changes in injection or extraction. Thus, the key to extending PSHA to induced earthquakes is to estimate future changes of the seismicity rate in response to some proposed operating schedule. Numerical models can describe the physical link between fluid pressure, effective stress change, and the earthquake process (triggering and propagation). However, models with predictive potential of individual earthquakes face the difficulty of characterizing specific heterogeneity - stress, strength, roughness, etc. - at locations of interest. Modeling catalogs of earthquakes provides a means of averaging over this uncertainty, focusing instead on the collective features of the seismicity, e.g., its rate and MFD. The model we use incorporates fluid pressure and stress changes to describe nucleation and crack-like propagation of earthquakes on stochastically characterized 1D faults. This enables simulation of synthetic catalogs of induced seismicity from which the seismicity rate, location and MFD are extracted. A probability distribution for Mmax - the largest event in some specified time window - is also computed. Because the model captures the physics linking seismicity to changes in the reservoir, earthquake observations and operating information can be used to calibrate a

  3. New Methods for Kinematic Modelling and Calibration of Robots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søe-Knudsen, Rune


    the accuracy in an easy and accessible way. The required equipment is accessible, since the cost is held to a minimum and can be made with conventional processing equipment. Our first method calibrates the kinematics of a robot using known relative positions measured with the robot itself and a plate...... with holes matching the robot tool flange. The second method calibrates the kinematics using two robots. This method allows the robots to carry out the collection of measurements and the adjustment, by themselves, after the robots have been connected. Furthermore, we also propose a method for restoring...... the functionality of an non-calibrated robot when the robot's physical structure changes due to repairs. In order to improve the robot's accuracy, we have also analysed the encoder and introduced a self-calibration method to identify and compensate for encoder eccentricity in joints of the robot. This dissertation...

  4. Impact of length of dataset on streamflow calibration parameters and performance of APEX model (United States)

    Due to resource constraints, long-term monitoring data for calibration and validation of hydrologic and water quality models are rare. As a result, most models are calibrated and, if possible, validated using limited measured data. However, little research has been done to determine the impact of le...

  5. Parameter subset selection for the dynamic calibration of activated sludge models (ASMs): experience versus systems analysis

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ruano, MV; Ribes, J; de Pauw, DJW


    In this work we address the issue of parameter subset selection within the scope of activated sludge model calibration. To this end, we evaluate two approaches: (i) systems analysis and (ii) experience-based approach. The evaluation has been carried out using a dynamic model (ASM2d) calibrated...

  6. Impact of length of calibration period on the APEX model water quantity and quality simulation performance (United States)

    Availability of continuous long-term measured data for model calibration and validation is limited due to time and resources constraints. As a result, hydrologic and water quality models are calibrated and, if possible, validated when measured data is available. Past work reported on the impact of t...

  7. Effect of calibration data length on performance and optimal parameters of hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan-Zhe LI


    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of calibration data length on the performance and optimal parameter values of hydrological model in ungauged or data limited catchments (actually, data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments, we choose to use non-continuous calibration periods to have more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and percentage water balance error (WBE are used as performance measures. The Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO method is used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different length of data range from 1 year to 10 years randomly sampled used for study on impact of calibration data length. 55 relatively unimpaired catchments all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration (PET, and streamflow data are tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that, longer calibration data does not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, 8 years data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for SIMHYD model. It is also show that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to get good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications in the efficiency of limited observation data used for hydrological model calibration in different climatic catchments.

  8. HRMA calibration handbook: EKC gravity compensated XRCF models (United States)

    Tananbaum, H. D.; Jerius, D.; Hughes, J.


    This document, consisting of hardcopy printout of explanatory text, figures, and tables, represents one incarnation of the AXAF high resolution mirror assembly (HRMA) Calibration Handbook. However, as we have envisioned it, the handbook also consists of electronic versions of this hardcopy printout (in the form of postscript files), the individual scripts which produced the various figures and the associated input data, the model raytrace files, and all scripts, parameter files, and input data necessary to generate the raytraces. These data are all available electronically as either ASCII or FITS files. The handbook is intended to be a living document and will be updated as new information and/or fabrication data on the HRMA are obtained, or when the need for additional results are indicated. The SAO Mission Support Team (MST) is developing a high fidelity HRMA model, consisting of analytical and numerical calculations, computer software, and databases of fundamental physical constants, laboratory measurements, configuration data, finite element models, AXAF assembly data, and so on. This model serves as the basis for the simulations presented in the handbook. The 'core' of the model is the raytrace package OSAC, which we have substantially modified and now refer to as SAOsac. One major structural modification to the software has been to utilize the UNIX binary pipe data transport mechanism for passing rays between program modules. This change has made it possible to simulate rays which are distributed randomly over the entrance aperture of the telescope. It has also resulted in a highly efficient system for tracing large numbers of rays. In one application to date (the analysis of VETA-I ring focus data) we have employed 2 x 10(exp 7) rays, a substantial improvement over the limit of 1 x 10(exp 4) rays in the original OSAC module. A second major modification is the manner in which SAOsac incorporates low spatial frequency surface errors into the geometric raytrace

  9. Sum of ranking differences (SRD) to ensemble multivariate calibration model merits for tuning parameter selection and comparing calibration methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalivas, John H., E-mail: [Department of Chemistry, Idaho State University, Pocatello, ID 83209 (United States); Héberger, Károly [Research Centre for Natural Sciences, Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Pusztaszeri út 59-67, 1025 Budapest (Hungary); Andries, Erik [Center for Advanced Research Computing, University of New Mexico, Albuquerque, NM 87106 (United States); Department of Mathematics, Central New Mexico Community College, Albuquerque, NM 87106 (United States)


    Highlights: • Sum of ranking differences (SRD) used for tuning parameter selection based on fusion of multicriteria. • No weighting scheme is needed for the multicriteria. • SRD allows automatic selection of one model or a collection of models if so desired. • SRD allows simultaneous comparison of different calibration methods with tuning parameter selection. • New MATLAB programs are described and made available. - Abstract: Most multivariate calibration methods require selection of tuning parameters, such as partial least squares (PLS) or the Tikhonov regularization variant ridge regression (RR). Tuning parameter values determine the direction and magnitude of respective model vectors thereby setting the resultant predication abilities of the model vectors. Simultaneously, tuning parameter values establish the corresponding bias/variance and the underlying selectivity/sensitivity tradeoffs. Selection of the final tuning parameter is often accomplished through some form of cross-validation and the resultant root mean square error of cross-validation (RMSECV) values are evaluated. However, selection of a “good” tuning parameter with this one model evaluation merit is almost impossible. Including additional model merits assists tuning parameter selection to provide better balanced models as well as allowing for a reasonable comparison between calibration methods. Using multiple merits requires decisions to be made on how to combine and weight the merits into an information criterion. An abundance of options are possible. Presented in this paper is the sum of ranking differences (SRD) to ensemble a collection of model evaluation merits varying across tuning parameters. It is shown that the SRD consensus ranking of model tuning parameters allows automatic selection of the final model, or a collection of models if so desired. Essentially, the user’s preference for the degree of balance between bias and variance ultimately decides the merits used in SRD

  10. Research on quasi-dynamic calibration model of plastic sensitive element based on neural networks (United States)

    Wang, Fang; Kong, Deren; Yang, Lixia; Zhang, Zouzou


    Quasi-dynamic calibration accuracy of the plastic sensitive element depends on the accuracy of the fitting model between pressure and deformation. By using the excellent nonlinear mapping ability of RBF (Radial Basis Function) neural network, a calibration model is established which use the peak pressure as the input and use the deformation of the plastic sensitive element as the output in this paper. The calibration experiments of a batch of copper cylinders are carried out on the quasi-dynamic pressure calibration device, which pressure range is within the range of 200MPa to 700MPa. The experiment data are acquired according to the standard pressure monitoring system. The network train and study are done to quasi dynamic calibration model based on neural network by using MATLAB neural network toolbox. Taking the testing samples as the research object, the prediction accuracy of neural network model is compared with the exponential fitting model and the second-order polynomial fitting model. The results show that prediction of the neural network model is most close to the testing samples, and the accuracy of prediction model based on neural network is better than 0.5%, respectively one order higher than the second-order polynomial fitting model and two orders higher than the exponential fitting model. The quasi-dynamic calibration model between pressure peak and deformation of plastic sensitive element, which is based on neural network, provides important basis for creating higher accuracy quasi-dynamic calibration table.

  11. Magnification-continuous static calibration model of a scanning-electron microscope.


    Malti, Abed Choaib; Dembélé, Sounkalo; Piat, Nadine; Rougeot, Patrick; Salut, Roland


    International audience; We present a new calibration model of both static distortion and projection for a scanning-electron microscope (SEM). The proposed calibration model depends continuously on the magnification factor. State-of-the-art methods have proposed models to solve the static distortion and projection model but for a discrete set of low and high magnifications: at low magnifications, existing models assume static distortion and perspective projection. At high magnifications, exist...

  12. Soil Water and Temperature System (SWATS) Instrument Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, David R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)


    The soil water and temperature system (SWATS) provides vertical profiles of soil temperature, soil-water potential, and soil moisture as a function of depth below the ground surface at hourly intervals. The temperature profiles are measured directly by in situ sensors at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The soil-water potential and soil moisture profiles are derived from measurements of soil temperature rise in response to small inputs of heat. Atmospheric scientists use the data in climate models to determine boundary conditions and to estimate the surface energy flux. The data are also useful to hydrologists, soil scientists, and agricultural scientists for determining the state of the soil.

  13. Calibration model for the MDT chambers of the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer

    CERN Document Server

    Bagnaia, P; Biebel, O; Bini, C; Borroni, S; Celio, P; Cirilli, M; Curti, M; De Salvo, A; Deile, M; Di Luise, S; Di Mattia, A; Diehl, E; Dimitrov, G; Dubbert, J; Duckeck, G; Falciano, S; Gadomski, S; Gauzzi, P; Groh, M; Hertenberger, R; Hessey, N; Horvat, S; Iodice, M; Kaiser, S; Kortner, O; Kroha, H; Kolos, S; Levin, D; Luminari, L; Martin, B; McKee, S; Merkl, D; Orestano, D; Pasqualucci, E; Petrucci, F; Pontecorvo, L; Potrap, I; Rauscher, F; Rosati, S; Solfaroli Camillocci, E; Spogli, L; Ströhmer, R; Tique Aires Viegas, F; Verducci, M; Vilucchi, E; Van Eldik, N; van Kesteren, Z; von Loeben, J; Woudstra, M; Zhou, B


    The calibration procedures defined for the Monitored Drift Tube detectors of the ATLAS Muon Spectrometer are reviewed with special emphasis on the model developed and on the data processing. The calibration is based upon track segments reconstructed in the spectrometer, therefore the achievable accuracy depends upon the muon tracks statistics. The calibration parameters have to be produced, validated and made available to be used in reconstruction within one day from the end of the LHC fill. These requirements on the statistics and the latency dictated the development of a dedicated data stream for calibration. The data collection, processing and computing is described.

  14. SWAT-MODSIM-PSO optimization of multi-crop planning in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran, under the impacts of climate change. (United States)

    Fereidoon, Majid; Koch, Manfred


    Agriculture is one of the environmental/economic sectors that may adversely be affected by climate change, especially, in already nowadays water-scarce regions, like the Middle East. One way to cope with future changes in absolute as well as seasonal (irrigation) water amounts can be the adaptation of the agricultural crop pattern in a region, i.e. by planting crops which still provide high yields and so economic benefits to farmers under such varying climate conditions. To do this properly, the whole cascade starting from climate change, effects on hydrology and surface water availability, subsequent effects on crop yield, agricultural areas available, and, finally, economic value of a multi-crop cultivation pattern must be known. To that avail, a complex coupled simulation-optimization tool SWAT-LINGO-MODSIM-PSO (SLMP) has been developed here and used to find the future optimum cultivation area of crops for the maximization of the economic benefits in five irrigation-fed agricultural plains in the south of the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) southwest Iran. Starting with the SWAT distributed hydrological model, the KR-streamflow as well as the inflow into the Karkheh-reservoir, as the major storage of irrigation water, is calibrated and validated, based on 1985-2004 observed discharge data. In the subsequent step, the SWAT-predicted streamflow is fed into the MODSIM river basin Decision Support System to simulate and optimize the water allocation between different water users (agricultural, environmental, municipal and industrial) under standard operating policy (SOP) rules. The final step is the maximization of the economic benefit in the five agricultural plains through constrained PSO (particle swarm optimization) by adjusting the cultivation areas (decision variables) of different crops (wheat, barley, maize and "others"), taking into account their specific prizes and optimal crop yields under water deficiency, with the latter computed in the LINGO

  15. Automatic Calibration of Hydrological Models in the Newly Reconstructed Catchments: Issues, Methods and Uncertainties (United States)

    Nazemi, Alireza; Elshorbagy, Amin


    The use of optimisation methods has a long tradition in the calibration of conceptual hydrological models; nevertheless, most of the previous investigations have been made in the catchments with long period of data collection and only with respect to the runoff information. The present study focuses on the automatic calibration of hydrological models using the states (i.e. soil moisture) as well as the fluxes (i.e., AET) in a prototype catchment, in which intensive gauging network collects variety of catchment variables; yet only a short period of data is available. First, the characteristics of such a calibration attempt are highlighted and discussed and a number of research questions are proposed. Then, four different optimisation methods, i.e. Latin Hypercube Sampling, Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis, Multi-Objective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis and Non-dominated Sort Genetic Algorithm II, have been considered and applied for the automatic calibration of the GSDW model in a newly oil-sand reconstructed catchment in northern Alberta, Canada. It is worthwhile to mention that the original GSDW model had to be translated into MATLAB in order to enable the model to be automatically calibrated. Different conceptualisation scenarios are generated and calibrated. The calibration results have been analysed and compared in terms of the optimality and the quality of solutions. The concepts of multi-objectivity and lack of identifiability are addressed in the calibration solutions and the best calibration algorithm is selected based on the error of representing the soil moisture content in different layers. The current study also considers uncertainties, which might occur in the formulation of calibration process by considering different calibration scenarios using the same model and dataset. The interactions among accuracy, identifiability, and the model parsimony are addressed and discussed. The present investigation concludes that the calibration of

  16. Calibration of hydrological models using TOPEX/Poseidon radar altimetry observations (United States)

    Sun, W.; Song, H.; Cheng, T.; Yu, J.


    This paper describes an approach for calibrating hydrological models using satellite radar altimetric observations of river water level at the basin outlet, aiming at providing a new direction for solving the calibration problem in ungauged basins where streamflow observations are unavailable. The methodology is illustrated by a case study in the Upper Mississippi basin. The water level data are derived from the TOPEX/Poseidon (T/P) satellite. The Generalized Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) method is employed for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of averaged simulated streamflow by behavioural parameter sets is 64.50%. And the uncertainty bounds of the ensemble simulation embrace about 65% of daily streamflow. These results indicate that the hydrological model has been calibrated effectively. At the same time, comparison with traditional calibration using streamflow data illustrates that the proposed method is only valuable for applications in ungauged basins.

  17. A critical review of statistical calibration/prediction models handling data inconsistency and model inadequacy

    CERN Document Server

    Pernot, Pascal


    Inference of physical parameters from reference data is a well studied problem with many intricacies (inconsistent sets of data due to experimental systematic errors, approximate physical models...). The complexity is further increased when the inferred parameters are used to make predictions (virtual measurements) because parameters uncertainty has to be estimated in addition to parameters best value. The literature is rich in statistical models for the calibration/prediction problem, each having benefits and limitations. We review and evaluate standard and state-of-the-art statistical models in a common bayesian framework, and test them on synthetic and real datasets of temperature-dependent viscosity for the calibration of Lennard-Jones parameters of a Chapman-Enskog model.

  18. Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Saeidifarzad


    Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.

  19. FEST-C 1.3 & 2.0 for CMAQ Bi-directional NH3, Crop Production, and SWAT Modeling (United States)

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) is developed in a Linux environment, a festc JAVA interface that integrates 14 tools and scenario management options facilitating land use/crop data processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system ...

  20. Improved semi-distributed model for phosphorus losses from Irish catchments. (United States)

    Ali, Igbal; Bruen, Michael


    Phosphorus (P) is one of the important limiting elements governing the quality of natural waters in Ireland. Good models that simulate the loss of P from catchments to water bodies are needed to understand the mechanism and transport of P and to assist in formulating appropriate policies and practices to control or manage the problem. In the present study, a new combined model (NCM) is developed as ahybridbetween soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF) packages. The developed NCM model was tested, with the data from the Oona catchment in Ireland, and evaluated to insure it is capable of predicting flow and total P loads at the same level or better than SWAT and HSPF packages when used alone. The NCM produced better flow simulation in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (R2) than SWAT when used alone for both calibration and validation periods when hourly time steps are used for rainfall and evapotranspiration. In addition, calibration for the total phosphorus load gave better R2 values than previously reported result for either HSPF or SWAT and showed better performance for most of the validation period. Using multi-objective optimization methods for optimizing both flow and total P loads gave better simulated results than using sequential optimization of flow followed by total phosphorus. Hence, the NCM model developed here can be used to improve the prediction of phosphorus loss to water bodies in Ireland.

  1. Hydrological Modelling of Ganga River basin. (United States)

    Anand, J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.


    Application of a hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to the Ganga basin having a total drainage area of around 1.08 M sq. km extending over Tibet, Nepal, India and Bangladesh has been made. The model is calibrated to determine the spatial deviations in runoff at sub-basin level, and to capture the water balance of the river basin. Manual calibration approach was used for calibrating the SWAT model by following multi-step procedure to get to the realistic present situation as close as possible. Simulations were then further made with and without proposed future projects to obtain various scenarios. The various statistical parameters used for the evaluation of the monthly runoff simulation showed that SWAT performed well in mimicking the monthly stream flow for Ganga River basin. The model under predicted the flows in the non-perennial region during non-monsoon season, due to low rainfall and regulated flows and seepage taking place from the reservoirs. The impacts of the interventions, both existing as well as proposed, on the water balance of the basin were evaluated and quantified. The derived results suggest that there is a substantial reduction in overall water resources availability in the study basin on account of the current level of development and further, future developments, as are being proposed, may require a careful study of their potential impact on currently sanctioned water use. The present study showcases that efficacy of the model for simulating the stream flow is admirable.

  2. Regression Model Term Selection for the Analysis of Strain-Gage Balance Calibration Data (United States)

    Ulbrich, Norbert Manfred; Volden, Thomas R.


    The paper discusses the selection of regression model terms for the analysis of wind tunnel strain-gage balance calibration data. Different function class combinations are presented that may be used to analyze calibration data using either a non-iterative or an iterative method. The role of the intercept term in a regression model of calibration data is reviewed. In addition, useful algorithms and metrics originating from linear algebra and statistics are recommended that will help an analyst (i) to identify and avoid both linear and near-linear dependencies between regression model terms and (ii) to make sure that the selected regression model of the calibration data uses only statistically significant terms. Three different tests are suggested that may be used to objectively assess the predictive capability of the final regression model of the calibration data. These tests use both the original data points and regression model independent confirmation points. Finally, data from a simplified manual calibration of the Ames MK40 balance is used to illustrate the application of some of the metrics and tests to a realistic calibration data set.

  3. Calibration and Analysis of SGG Observations of GOCE Based on Prior Gravity Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    XU Xinyu


    Full Text Available GOCE satellite carries a high-sensitivity gradiometer, whose observations are used for recovering high-precision and high-resolution earth gravity field. Based on EIGEN-5C, EGM2008, GGM03S and GOTIM3 global gravity field models, the calibration parameters of the diagonal components(Vxx, Vyy, Vzz of GOCE gravitational gradient tensor(GGT were obtained. We analyzed the stability of scale factors. The influences on the calibration parameters and the calibrated observations from different gravity field models, the same model with different maximum degree and order and whether estimating the drift parameters were discussed in detail.The results shows that the stability of scale factors are about 10-4 and calibrated observations are mainly determined by the low-degree signal of gravity field models. The differences of calibrated observations between EGM2008 and EIGEN-5C up to degree and order 250 are less than 10-4E, which is far less than the noise level of GOCE GGT. We also find that the effects of whether estimating the drift parameter on the calibrated observations could approach 0.4E when the calibration is carried out every day. At the same time, the PSD(power spectral density of the observation difference before and after the calibration shows that the low-frequency part of observations Vxx, Vyy, Vzz are mainly calibrated from the low-medium degree part(<150 of the empirical gravity field models. Taking the measurement bandwidth of GOCE gradiometer into account, the calibrated observations could be used for recovering the middle-high frequency signal of gravity field.

  4. Calibration drift in regression and machine learning models for acute kidney injury. (United States)

    Davis, Sharon E; Lasko, Thomas A; Chen, Guanhua; Siew, Edward D; Matheny, Michael E


    Predictive analytics create opportunities to incorporate personalized risk estimates into clinical decision support. Models must be well calibrated to support decision-making, yet calibration deteriorates over time. This study explored the influence of modeling methods on performance drift and connected observed drift with data shifts in the patient population. Using 2003 admissions to Department of Veterans Affairs hospitals nationwide, we developed 7 parallel models for hospital-acquired acute kidney injury using common regression and machine learning methods, validating each over 9 subsequent years. Discrimination was maintained for all models. Calibration declined as all models increasingly overpredicted risk. However, the random forest and neural network models maintained calibration across ranges of probability, capturing more admissions than did the regression models. The magnitude of overprediction increased over time for the regression models while remaining stable and small for the machine learning models. Changes in the rate of acute kidney injury were strongly linked to increasing overprediction, while changes in predictor-outcome associations corresponded with diverging patterns of calibration drift across methods. Efficient and effective updating protocols will be essential for maintaining accuracy of, user confidence in, and safety of personalized risk predictions to support decision-making. Model updating protocols should be tailored to account for variations in calibration drift across methods and respond to periods of rapid performance drift rather than be limited to regularly scheduled annual or biannual intervals.

  5. Seismology on a Comet: Calibration Measurements, Modeling and Inversion (United States)

    Faber, C.; Hoppe, J.; Knapmeyer, M.; Fischer, H.; Seidensticker, K. J.


    The Mission Rosetta was launched to comet 67P/Churyumov-Gerasimenko in 2004. It will finally reach the comet and will deliver the Lander Philae at the surface of the nucleus in November 2014. The Lander carries ten experiments, one of which is the Surface Electric Sounding and Acoustic Monitoring Experiment (SESAME). Part of this experiment is the Comet Acoustic Surface Sounding Experiment (CASSE) housed in the three feet of the lander. The primary goal of CASSE is to determine the elastic parameters of the surface material, like the Young's modulus and the Poisson ratio. Additional goals are the determination of shallow structure, quantification of porosity, and the location of activity spots and thermally and impact caused cometary activity. We conduct calibration measurements with accelerometers identical to the flight model. The goal of these measurements is to develop inversion procedures for travel times and to estimate the expected accuracy that CASSE can achieve in terms of elastic wave velocity, elastic parameters, and source location. The experiments are conducted mainly on sandy soil, in dry, wet or frozen conditions, and apart from buildings with their reflecting walls and artificial noise sources. We expect that natural sources, like thermal cracking at sunrise and sunset, can be located to an accuracy of about 10 degrees in direction and a few decimeters (1σ) in distance if occurring within the sensor triangle and from first arrivals alone. The accuracy of the direction is essentially independent of the distance, whereas distance determination depends critically on the identification of later arrivals. Determination of elastic wave velocities on the comet will be conducted with controlled sources at known positions and are likely to achieve an accuracy of σ=15% for the velocity of the first arriving wave. Limitations are due to the fixed source-receiver geometry and the wavelength emitted by the CASSE piezo-ceramic sources. In addition to the

  6. Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources. (United States)

    Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A


    Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.

  7. The impact of considering uncertainty in measured calibration/validation data during auto-calibration of hydrologic and water quality models (United States)

    The importance of uncertainty inherent in measured calibration/validation data is frequently stated in literature, but it is not often considered in calibrating and evaluating hydrologic and water quality models. This is due to the limited amount of data available to support relevant research and t...

  8. Elasto-geometrical modeling and calibration of redundantly actuated PKMs


    Ecorchard, Gaël; Neugebauer, Reimund; Maurine, Patrick


    International audience; Redundantlyactuated parallel kinematic machines (PKMs) offer a number of advantages compared to classical non-redundant PKMs. Particularly, they show a better stiffness thanks to singularity avoidance and they have an improved repeatability due to a better behavior against backlashes. The main problem with the calibration of these machines is that the redundancy leads to some mechanical strains in their structure. This makes it difficult to identify the geometrical err...

  9. Application of iterative robust model-based optimal experimental design for the calibration of biocatalytic models. (United States)

    Van Daele, Timothy; Gernaey, Krist V; Ringborg, Rolf H; Börner, Tim; Heintz, Søren; Van Hauwermeiren, Daan; Grey, Carl; Krühne, Ulrich; Adlercreutz, Patrick; Nopens, Ingmar


    The aim of model calibration is to estimate unique parameter values from available experimental data, here applied to a biocatalytic process. The traditional approach of first gathering data followed by performing a model calibration is inefficient, since the information gathered during experimentation is not actively used to optimize the experimental design. By applying an iterative robust model-based optimal experimental design, the limited amount of data collected is used to design additional informative experiments. The algorithm is used here to calibrate the initial reaction rate of an ω-transaminase catalyzed reaction in a more accurate way. The parameter confidence region estimated from the Fisher Information Matrix is compared with the likelihood confidence region, which is not only more accurate but also a computationally more expensive method. As a result, an important deviation between both approaches is found, confirming that linearization methods should be applied with care for nonlinear models. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers Biotechnol. Prog., 33:1278-1293, 2017. © 2017 American Institute of Chemical Engineers.

  10. Neuromusculoskeletal model self-calibration for on-line sequential bayesian moment estimation (United States)

    Bueno, Diana R.; Montano, L.


    Objective. Neuromusculoskeletal models involve many subject-specific physiological parameters that need to be adjusted to adequately represent muscle properties. Traditionally, neuromusculoskeletal models have been calibrated with a forward-inverse dynamic optimization which is time-consuming and unfeasible for rehabilitation therapy. Non self-calibration algorithms have been applied to these models. To the best of our knowledge, the algorithm proposed in this work is the first on-line calibration algorithm for muscle models that allows a generic model to be adjusted to different subjects in a few steps. Approach. In this paper we propose a reformulation of the traditional muscle models that is able to sequentially estimate the kinetics (net joint moments), and also its full self-calibration (subject-specific internal parameters of the muscle from a set of arbitrary uncalibrated data), based on the unscented Kalman filter. The nonlinearity of the model as well as its calibration problem have obliged us to adopt the sum of Gaussians filter suitable for nonlinear systems. Main results. This sequential Bayesian self-calibration algorithm achieves a complete muscle model calibration using as input only a dataset of uncalibrated sEMG and kinematics data. The approach is validated experimentally using data from the upper limbs of 21 subjects. Significance. The results show the feasibility of neuromusculoskeletal model self-calibration. This study will contribute to a better understanding of the generalization of muscle models for subject-specific rehabilitation therapies. Moreover, this work is very promising for rehabilitation devices such as electromyography-driven exoskeletons or prostheses.

  11. Least-MSE calibration procedures for corrections of measurement and misclassification errors in generalized linear models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Parnchit Wattanasaruch


    Full Text Available The analyses of clinical and epidemiologic studies are often based on some kind of regression analysis, mainly linearregression and logistic models. These analyses are often affected by the fact that one or more of the predictors are measuredwith error. The error in the predictors is also known to bias the estimates and hypothesis testing results. One of the proceduresfrequently used to handle such problem in order to reduce the measurement errors is the method of regression calibration forpredicting the continuous covariate. The idea is to predict the true value of error-prone predictor from the observed data, thento use the predicted value for the analyses. In this research we develop four calibration procedures, namely probit, complementary log-log, logit, and logistic calibration procedures for corrections of the measurement error and/or the misclassification error to predict the true values for the misclassification explanatory variables used in generalized linear models. Theprocesses give the predicted true values of a binary explanatory variable using the calibration techniques then use thesepredicted values to fit the three models such that the probit, the complementary log-log, and the logit models under the binaryresponse. All of which are investigated by considering the mean square error (MSE in 1,000 simulation studies in each caseof the known parameters and conditions. The results show that the proposed working calibration techniques that can performadequately well are the probit, logistic, and logit calibration procedures. Both the probit calibration procedure and the probitmodel are superior to the logistic and logit calibrations due to the smallest MSE. Furthermore, the probit model-parameterestimates also improve the effects of the misclassification explanatory variable. Only the complementary log-log model andits calibration technique are appropriate when measurement error is moderate and sample size is high.

  12. Calibrating corneal material model parameters using only inflation data: an ill-posed problem. (United States)

    Kok, S; Botha, N; Inglis, H M


    Goldmann applanation tonometry (GAT) is a method used to estimate the intraocular pressure by measuring the indentation resistance of the cornea. A popular approach to investigate the sensitivity of GAT results to material and geometry variations is to perform numerical modelling using the finite element method, for which a calibrated material model is required. These material models are typically calibrated using experimental inflation data by solving an inverse problem. In the inverse problem, the underlying material constitutive behaviour is inferred from the measured macroscopic response (chamber pressure versus apical displacement). In this study, a biomechanically motivated elastic fibre-reinforced corneal material model is chosen. The inverse problem of calibrating the corneal material model parameters using only experimental inflation data is demonstrated to be ill-posed, with small variations in the experimental data leading to large differences in the calibrated model parameters. This can result in different groups of researchers, calibrating their material model with the same inflation test data, drawing vastly different conclusions about the effect of material parameters on GAT results. It is further demonstrated that multiple loading scenarios, such as inflation as well as bending, would be required to reliably calibrate such a corneal material model. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W


    prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves...... such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk...

  14. Microscopic Calibration and Validation of Car-Following Models -- A Systematic Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Treiber, Martin


    Calibration and validation techniques are crucial in assessing the descriptive and predictive power of car-following models and their suitability for analyzing traffic flow. Using real and generated floating-car and trajectory data, we systematically investigate following aspects: Data requirements and preparation, conceptional approach including local maximum-likelihood and global LSE calibration with several objective functions, influence of the data sampling rate and measuring errors, the effect of data smoothing on the calibration result, and model performance in terms of fitting quality, robustness, parameter orthogonality, completeness and plausible parameter values.

  15. Modeling, Calibration and Control for Extreme-Precision MEMS Deformable Mirrors Project (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Iris AO will develop electromechanical models and actuator calibration methods to enable open-loop control of MEMS deformable mirrors (DMs) with unprecedented...

  16. Crash test for groundwater recharge models: The effects of model complexity and calibration period on groundwater recharge predictions (United States)

    Moeck, Christian; Von Freyberg, Jana; Schrimer, Maria


    An important question in recharge impact studies is how model choice, structure and calibration period affect recharge predictions. It is still unclear if a certain model type or structure is less affected by running the model on time periods with different hydrological conditions compared to the calibration period. This aspect, however, is crucial to ensure reliable predictions of groundwater recharge. In this study, we quantify and compare the effect of groundwater recharge model choice, model parametrization and calibration period in a systematic way. This analysis was possible thanks to a unique data set from a large-scale lysimeter in a pre-alpine catchment where daily long-term recharge rates are available. More specifically, the following issues are addressed: We systematically evaluate how the choice of hydrological models influences predictions of recharge. We assess how different parameterizations of models due to parameter non-identifiability affect predictions of recharge by applying a Monte Carlo approach. We systematically assess how the choice of calibration periods influences predictions of recharge within a differential split sample test focusing on the model performance under extreme climatic and hydrological conditions. Results indicate that all applied models (simple lumped to complex physically based models) were able to simulate the observed recharge rates for five different calibration periods. However, there was a marked impact of the calibration period when the complete 20 years validation period was simulated. Both, seasonal and annual differences between simulated and observed daily recharge rates occurred when the hydrological conditions were different to the calibration period. These differences were, however, less distinct for the physically based models, whereas the simpler models over- or underestimate the observed recharge depending on the considered season. It is, however, possible to reduce the differences for the simple models by

  17. SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff – a Vietnam river basin study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Vu


    Full Text Available Many research studies that focus on basin hydrology have applied the SWAT model using station data to simulate runoff. But over regions lacking robust station data, there is a problem of applying the model to study the hydrological responses. For some countries and remote areas, the rainfall data availability might be a constraint due to many different reasons such as lacking of technology, war time and financial limitation that lead to difficulty in constructing the runoff data. To overcome such a limitation, this research study uses some of the available globally gridded high resolution precipitation datasets to simulate runoff. Five popular gridded observation precipitation datasets: (1 Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE, (2 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, (3 Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN, (4 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, (5 a modified version of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN2 and one reanalysis dataset, National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR are used to simulate runoff over the Dak Bla river (a small tributary of the Mekong River in Vietnam. Wherever possible, available station data are also used for comparison. Bilinear interpolation of these gridded datasets is used to input the precipitation data at the closest grid points to the station locations. Sensitivity Analysis and Auto-calibration are performed for the SWAT model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Coefficient of Determination (R2 indices are used to benchmark the model performance. Results indicate that the APHRODITE dataset performed very well on a daily scale simulation of discharge having a good NSE of 0.54 and R2 of 0.55, when compared to the discharge simulation using station data (0

  18. Multivariate Calibration Models for Sorghum Composition using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfrum, E.; Payne, C.; Stefaniak, T.; Rooney, W.; Dighe, N.; Bean, B.; Dahlberg, J.


    NREL developed calibration models based on near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy coupled with multivariate statistics to predict compositional properties relevant to cellulosic biofuels production for a variety of sorghum cultivars. A robust calibration population was developed in an iterative fashion. The quality of models developed using the same sample geometry on two different types of NIR spectrometers and two different sample geometries on the same spectrometer did not vary greatly.

  19. Integrated corridor management (ICM) analysis, modeling, and simulation (AMS) for Minneapolis site : model calibration and validation report. (United States)


    This technical report documents the calibration and validation of the baseline (2008) mesoscopic model for the I-394 : Minneapolis, Minnesota, Pioneer Site. DynusT was selected as the mesoscopic model for analyzing operating conditions : in the I-394...

  20. Validation and Calibration of Nuclear Thermal Hydraulics Multiscale Multiphysics Models - Subcooled Flow Boiling Study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anh Bui; Nam Dinh; Brian Williams


    In addition to validation data plan, development of advanced techniques for calibration and validation of complex multiscale, multiphysics nuclear reactor simulation codes are a main objective of the CASL VUQ plan. Advanced modeling of LWR systems normally involves a range of physico-chemical models describing multiple interacting phenomena, such as thermal hydraulics, reactor physics, coolant chemistry, etc., which occur over a wide range of spatial and temporal scales. To a large extent, the accuracy of (and uncertainty in) overall model predictions is determined by the correctness of various sub-models, which are not conservation-laws based, but empirically derived from measurement data. Such sub-models normally require extensive calibration before the models can be applied to analysis of real reactor problems. This work demonstrates a case study of calibration of a common model of subcooled flow boiling, which is an important multiscale, multiphysics phenomenon in LWR thermal hydraulics. The calibration process is based on a new strategy of model-data integration, in which, all sub-models are simultaneously analyzed and calibrated using multiple sets of data of different types. Specifically, both data on large-scale distributions of void fraction and fluid temperature and data on small-scale physics of wall evaporation were simultaneously used in this work’s calibration. In a departure from traditional (or common-sense) practice of tuning/calibrating complex models, a modern calibration technique based on statistical modeling and Bayesian inference was employed, which allowed simultaneous calibration of multiple sub-models (and related parameters) using different datasets. Quality of data (relevancy, scalability, and uncertainty) could be taken into consideration in the calibration process. This work presents a step forward in the development and realization of the “CIPS Validation Data Plan” at the Consortium for Advanced Simulation of LWRs to enable

  1. Using Automated On-Site Monitoring to Calibrate Empirical Models of Trihalomethanes Concentrations in Drinking Water

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas E. Watts III


    Full Text Available An automated, on-site trihalomethanes concentration data set from a conventional water treatment plant was used to optimize powdered activated carbon and pre-chlorination doses. The trihalomethanes concentration data set was used with commonly monitored water quality parameters to improve an empirical model of trihalomethanes formation. A calibrated model was used to predict trihalomethanes concentrations the following year. The agreement between the models and measurements was evaluated. The original model predicted trihalomethanes concentrations within ~10 μg·L−1 of the measurement. Calibration improved model prediction by a factor of three to five times better than the literature model.

  2. Subsurface Flow Model Calibration under Uncertain Geologic Scenarios with Adaptive Sparse Reconstruction Techniques (United States)

    Khaninezhad, M. M.; Jafarpour, B.


    Construction of predictive aquifer and reservoir models involves subjective interpretation and interpolation of spatially limited data and imperfect modeling assumptions. Hence, the process can introduce significant uncertainty and bias into subsurface flow and transport modeling. In particular, the uncertainty in the geologic continuity model can markedly degrade the quality of fluid displacement predictions and, hence, the efficiency of resource development plans. We present a novel approach for flow model calibration under uncertainty in geologic continuity model. Our approach is inspired by recent advances in sparse reconstruction and takes advantage of the selection property of the l1-norm minimization in sparse bases. Using an adaptive saprse reconstruction framework, we develop a prior model identification method to discriminate against distinct prior geologic continuity models (e.g., variograms) that are proposed for model calibration. Realizations from each geologic continuity model are used to generate a diverse geologic dictionary that compactly represents models from each proposed prior geologic scenario. The inversion method is initialized by taking the same number of elements from each prior geologic continuity model. At each iteration of the nonlinear model calibration process the contribution of the proposed prior models to the reconstructed solution is monitored and, to improve the solution quality, elements from inconsistent prior models are replaced with additional elements from geologically consistent priors. We use several numerical examples to illustrate the effectiveness of the proposed adaptive prior identification approach for model calibration under uncertainty in prior geologic continuity.

  3. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.


    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  4. The Effect of Hydrologic Model Calibration on Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts for the Western U.S. (United States)

    Shi, X.; Wood, A. W.; Lettenmaier, D. P.


    Forecasts of seasonal streamflow, particularly for the spring and summer period which are dominated by snowmelt runoff, are central to the management of the water resources infrastructure of the western U.S. Operational approaches to seasonal streamflow forecasting, like the Ensemble Streamflow Prediction (ESP) method used by the U.S. National Weather Service, rely heavily on manpower and/or computationally intensive calibration of conceptual streamflow models. We suggest an alternative approach, in which a priori (e.g., based on regional information) model parameters are used for streamflow forecasting, and a post processing bias correction is applied using a percentile mapping approach which utilizes the past history of model errors associated with the uncalibrated model. We evaluate intensively the impact of calibration on ESP forecasts at eight forecast points carefully selected to span a range of basin sizes and hydroclimatic conditions across the western U.S. At each of these sites, we apply the ESP approach, and evaluate forecast errors for a range of forecast dates and lead times. We use both the root mean squared error (RMSE) and coefficient of prediction Cp (which essentially is a measure of the fraction of variance explained by the forecast) to evaluate the effects of model calibration on seasonal streamflow forecast accuracy. We find that while the bias correction approach captures most of the accuracy achievable by model calibration, for most forecast points, forecast dates, and lead times there remains a modest increase in forecast accuracy that can only be captured by model calibration.

  5. Respiratory inductance plethysmography calibration for pediatric upper airway obstruction: an animal model. (United States)

    Khemani, Robinder G; Flink, Rutger; Hotz, Justin; Ross, Patrick A; Ghuman, Anoopindar; Newth, Christopher J L


    We sought to determine optimal methods of respiratory inductance plethysmography (RIP) flow calibration for application to pediatric postextubation upper airway obstruction. We measured RIP, spirometry, and esophageal manometry in spontaneously breathing, intubated Rhesus monkeys with increasing inspiratory resistance. RIP calibration was based on: ΔµV(ao) ≈ M[ΔµV(RC) + K(ΔµV(AB))] where K establishes the relationship between the uncalibrated rib cage (ΔµV(RC)) and abdominal (ΔµV(AB)) RIP signals. We calculated K during (i) isovolume maneuvers during a negative inspiratory force (NIF), (ii) quantitative diagnostic calibration (QDC) during (a) tidal breathing, (b) continuous positive airway pressure (CPAP), and (c) increasing degrees of upper airway obstruction (UAO). We compared the calibrated RIP flow waveform to spirometry quantitatively and qualitatively. Isovolume calibrated RIP flow tracings were more accurate (against spirometry) both quantitatively and qualitatively than those from QDC (P spirometry. In an animal model of pediatric UAO, isovolume calibrated RIP flow tracings are accurate against spirometry. QDC during tidal breathing yields poor RIP flow calibration, particularly as UAO worsens. Routine use of a NIF maneuver before extubation affords the opportunity to use RIP to study postextubation UAO in children.

  6. Evaluation of Automated Model Calibration Techniques for Residential Building Energy Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    and Ben Polly, Joseph Robertson [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Polly, Ben [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Collis, Jon [Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)


    This simulation study adapts and applies the general framework described in BESTEST-EX (Judkoff et al 2010) for self-testing residential building energy model calibration methods. BEopt/DOE-2.2 is used to evaluate four mathematical calibration methods in the context of monthly, daily, and hourly synthetic utility data for a 1960's-era existing home in a cooling-dominated climate. The home's model inputs are assigned probability distributions representing uncertainty ranges, random selections are made from the uncertainty ranges to define "explicit" input values, and synthetic utility billing data are generated using the explicit input values. The four calibration methods evaluated in this study are: an ASHRAE 1051-RP-based approach (Reddy and Maor 2006), a simplified simulated annealing optimization approach, a regression metamodeling optimization approach, and a simple output ratio calibration approach. The calibration methods are evaluated for monthly, daily, and hourly cases; various retrofit measures are applied to the calibrated models and the methods are evaluated based on the accuracy of predicted savings, computational cost, repeatability, automation, and ease of implementation.

  7. Evaluation of Automated Model Calibration Techniques for Residential Building Energy Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, J.; Polly, B.; Collis, J.


    This simulation study adapts and applies the general framework described in BESTEST-EX (Judkoff et al 2010) for self-testing residential building energy model calibration methods. BEopt/DOE-2.2 is used to evaluate four mathematical calibration methods in the context of monthly, daily, and hourly synthetic utility data for a 1960's-era existing home in a cooling-dominated climate. The home's model inputs are assigned probability distributions representing uncertainty ranges, random selections are made from the uncertainty ranges to define 'explicit' input values, and synthetic utility billing data are generated using the explicit input values. The four calibration methods evaluated in this study are: an ASHRAE 1051-RP-based approach (Reddy and Maor 2006), a simplified simulated annealing optimization approach, a regression metamodeling optimization approach, and a simple output ratio calibration approach. The calibration methods are evaluated for monthly, daily, and hourly cases; various retrofit measures are applied to the calibrated models and the methods are evaluated based on the accuracy of predicted savings, computational cost, repeatability, automation, and ease of implementation.

  8. On the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixtures through experimental data, and the design of predictive models (United States)

    Karagiannis, Georgios; Lin, Guang


    For many real systems, several computer models may exist with different physics and predictive abilities. To achieve more accurate simulations/predictions, it is desirable for these models to be properly combined and calibrated. We propose the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixture method which relies on the idea of representing the real system output as a mixture of the available computer model outputs with unknown input dependent weight functions. The method builds a fully Bayesian predictive model as an emulator for the real system output by combining, weighting, and calibrating the available models in the Bayesian framework. Moreover, it fits a mixture of calibrated computer models that can be used by the domain scientist as a mean to combine the available computer models, in a flexible and principled manner, and perform reliable simulations. It can address realistic cases where one model may be more accurate than the others at different input values because the mixture weights, indicating the contribution of each model, are functions of the input. Inference on the calibration parameters can consider multiple computer models associated with different physics. The method does not require knowledge of the fidelity order of the models. We provide a technique able to mitigate the computational overhead due to the consideration of multiple computer models that is suitable to the mixture model framework. We implement the proposed method in a real-world application involving the Weather Research and Forecasting large-scale climate model.

  9. Nitrous oxide emissions from cropland: a procedure for calibrating the DayCent biogeochemical model using inverse modelling (United States)

    Rafique, Rashad; Fienen, Michael N.; Parkin, Timothy B.; Anex, Robert P.


    DayCent is a biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity widely used to simulate greenhouse gases (GHG), soil organic carbon and nutrients in crop, grassland, forest and savannah ecosystems. Although this model has been applied to a wide range of ecosystems, it is still typically parameterized through a traditional “trial and error” approach and has not been calibrated using statistical inverse modelling (i.e. algorithmic parameter estimation). The aim of this study is to establish and demonstrate a procedure for calibration of DayCent to improve estimation of GHG emissions. We coupled DayCent with the parameter estimation (PEST) software for inverse modelling. The PEST software can be used for calibration through regularized inversion as well as model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The DayCent model was analysed and calibrated using N2O flux data collected over 2 years at the Iowa State University Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering Research Farms, Boone, IA. Crop year 2003 data were used for model calibration and 2004 data were used for validation. The optimization of DayCent model parameters using PEST significantly reduced model residuals relative to the default DayCent parameter values. Parameter estimation improved the model performance by reducing the sum of weighted squared residual difference between measured and modelled outputs by up to 67 %. For the calibration period, simulation with the default model parameter values underestimated mean daily N2O flux by 98 %. After parameter estimation, the model underestimated the mean daily fluxes by 35 %. During the validation period, the calibrated model reduced sum of weighted squared residuals by 20 % relative to the default simulation. Sensitivity analysis performed provides important insights into the model structure providing guidance for model improvement.

  10. An algorithmic calibration approach to identify globally optimal parameters for constraining the DayCent model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rafique, Rashid; Kumar, Sandeep; Luo, Yiqi; Kiely, Gerard; Asrar, Ghassem R.


    he accurate calibration of complex biogeochemical models is essential for the robust estimation of soil greenhouse gases (GHG) as well as other environmental conditions and parameters that are used in research and policy decisions. DayCent is a popular biogeochemical model used both nationally and internationally for this purpose. Despite DayCent’s popularity, its complex parameter estimation is often based on experts’ knowledge which is somewhat subjective. In this study we used the inverse modelling parameter estimation software (PEST), to calibrate the DayCent model based on sensitivity and identifi- ability analysis. Using previously published N2 O and crop yield data as a basis of our calibration approach, we found that half of the 140 parameters used in this study were the primary drivers of calibration dif- ferences (i.e. the most sensitive) and the remaining parameters could not be identified given the data set and parameter ranges we used in this study. The post calibration results showed improvement over the pre-calibration parameter set based on, a decrease in residual differences 79% for N2O fluxes and 84% for crop yield, and an increase in coefficient of determination 63% for N2O fluxes and 72% for corn yield. The results of our study suggest that future studies need to better characterize germination tem- perature, number of degree-days and temperature dependency of plant growth; these processes were highly sensitive and could not be adequately constrained by the data used in our study. Furthermore, the sensitivity and identifiability analysis was helpful in providing deeper insight for important processes and associated parameters that can lead to further improvement in calibration of DayCent model.

  11. Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China (United States)

    S. Wang; Z. Zhang; G. Sun; P. Strauss; J. Guo; Y. Tang; A. Yao


    Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped...

  12. Gas chromatographic quantitative analysis of methanol in wine: operative conditions, optimization and calibration model choice. (United States)

    Caruso, Rosario; Gambino, Grazia Laura; Scordino, Monica; Sabatino, Leonardo; Traulo, Pasqualino; Gagliano, Giacomo


    The influence of the wine distillation process on methanol content has been determined by quantitative analysis using gas chromatographic flame ionization (GC-FID) detection. A comparative study between direct injection of diluted wine and injection of distilled wine was performed. The distillation process does not affect methanol quantification in wines in proportions higher than 10%. While quantification performed on distilled samples gives more reliable results, a screening method for wine injection after a 1:5 water dilution could be employed. The proposed technique was found to be a compromise between the time consuming distillation process and direct wine injection. In the studied calibration range, the stability of the volatile compounds in the reference solution is concentration-dependent. The stability is higher in the less concentrated reference solution. To shorten the operation time, a stronger temperature ramp and carrier flow rate was employed. With these conditions, helium consumption and column thermal stress were increased. However, detection limits, calibration limits, and analytical method performances are not affected substantially by changing from normal to forced GC conditions. Statistical data evaluation were made using both ordinary (OLS) and bivariate least squares (BLS) calibration models. Further confirmation was obtained that limit of detection (LOD) values, calculated according to the 3sigma approach, are lower than the respective Hubaux-Vos (H-V) calculation method. H-V LOD depends upon background noise, calibration parameters and the number of reference standard solutions employed in producing the calibration curve. These remarks are confirmed by both calibration models used.

  13. Nested sampling algorithm for subsurface flow model selection, uncertainty quantification, and nonlinear calibration

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, A. H.


    Calibration of subsurface flow models is an essential step for managing ground water aquifers, designing of contaminant remediation plans, and maximizing recovery from hydrocarbon reservoirs. We investigate an efficient sampling algorithm known as nested sampling (NS), which can simultaneously sample the posterior distribution for uncertainty quantification, and estimate the Bayesian evidence for model selection. Model selection statistics, such as the Bayesian evidence, are needed to choose or assign different weights to different models of different levels of complexities. In this work, we report the first successful application of nested sampling for calibration of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems. The estimated Bayesian evidence by the NS algorithm is used to weight different parameterizations of the subsurface flow models (prior model selection). The results of the numerical evaluation implicitly enforced Occam\\'s razor where simpler models with fewer number of parameters are favored over complex models. The proper level of model complexity was automatically determined based on the information content of the calibration data and the data mismatch of the calibrated model.

  14. Hydrologic model calibration using remotely sensed soil moisture and discharge measurements: The impact on predictions at gauged and ungauged locations (United States)

    Li, Yuan; Grimaldi, Stefania; Pauwels, Valentijn R. N.; Walker, Jeffrey P.


    The skill of hydrologic models, such as those used in operational flood prediction, is currently restricted by the availability of flow gauges and by the quality of the streamflow data used for calibration. The increased availability of remote sensing products provides the opportunity to further improve the model forecasting skill. A joint calibration scheme using streamflow measurements and remote sensing derived soil moisture values was examined and compared with a streamflow only calibration scheme. The efficacy of the two calibration schemes was tested in three modelling setups: 1) a lumped model; 2) a semi-distributed model with only the outlet gauge available for calibration; and 3) a semi-distributed model with multiple gauges available for calibration. The joint calibration scheme was found to slightly degrade the streamflow prediction at gauged sites during the calibration period compared with streamflow only calibration, but improvement was found at the same gauged sites during the independent validation period. A more consistent and statistically significant improvement was achieved at gauged sites not used in the calibration, due to the spatial information introduced by the remotely sensed soil moisture data. It was also found that the impact of using soil moisture for calibration tended to be stronger at the upstream and tributary sub-catchments than at the downstream sub-catchments.

  15. Calibration and Validation of the Dynamic Wake Meandering Model for Implementation in an Aeroelastic Code

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Aagaard Madsen, Helge; Larsen, Gunner Chr.; Larsen, Torben J.


    in an aeroelastic model. Calibration and validation of the different parts of the model is carried out by comparisons with actuator disk and actuator line (ACL) computations as well as with inflow measurements on a full-scale 2 MW turbine. It is shown that the load generating part of the increased turbulence...... to the total turbulence and with a small length scale in the range of 10–25% of the ambient turbulence length scale. Comparisons of the calibrated DWM model with ACL results for different downstream positions and ambient turbulence levels show good correlation for both wake deficits and turbulence levels...

  16. Calibrated Blade-Element/Momentum Theory Aerodynamic Model of the MARIN Stock Wind Turbine: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goupee, A.; Kimball, R.; de Ridder, E. J.; Helder, J.; Robertson, A.; Jonkman, J.


    In this paper, a calibrated blade-element/momentum theory aerodynamic model of the MARIN stock wind turbine is developed and documented. The model is created using open-source software and calibrated to closely emulate experimental data obtained by the DeepCwind Consortium using a genetic algorithm optimization routine. The provided model will be useful for those interested in validating interested in validating floating wind turbine numerical simulators that rely on experiments utilizing the MARIN stock wind turbine—for example, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30’s Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continued, with Correlation project.

  17. An approach to identify time consistent model parameters: sub-period calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Gharari


    Full Text Available Conceptual hydrological models rely on calibration for the identification of their parameters. As these models are typically designed to reflect real catchment processes, a key objective of an appropriate calibration strategy is the determination of parameter sets that reflect a "realistic" model behavior. Previous studies have shown that parameter estimates for different calibration periods can be significantly different. This questions model transposability in time, which is one of the key conditions for the set-up of a "realistic" model. This paper presents a new approach that selects parameter sets that provide a consistent model performance in time. The approach consists of testing model performance in different periods, and selecting parameter sets that are as close as possible to the optimum of each individual sub-period. While aiding model calibration, the approach is also useful as a diagnostic tool, illustrating tradeoffs in the identification of time-consistent parameter sets. The approach is applied to a case study in Luxembourg using the HyMod hydrological model as an example.

  18. Stochastic Modeling of Overtime Occupancy and Its Application in Building Energy Simulation and Calibration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Kaiyu; Yan, Da; Hong, Tianzhen; Guo, Siyue


    Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an office building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.

  19. Eutrophication Model Accuracy - Comparison of Calibration and Verification Performance of a Model of the Neuse River Estuary, North Carolina (United States)

    Bowen, J. D.


    A modified version of an existing two-dimensional, laterally averaged model (CE-QUAL-W2) was applied to predict water quality conditions in the lower 80-km of the Neuse River Estuary. Separate time periods were modeled for calibration and verification (model testing). The calibration time period ran from June 1997 to December 1999, while the verification time period ran from January to December 2000. During this time the estuary received two periods of unusually high inflows in early 1998 and again in September and October 1999. The latter rainfall event loaded the estuary with the equivalent of nearly two years worth of water and dissolved inorganic nitrogen in just six weeks. Overall, the level of calibration performance achieved by the model was comparable to that attained in other eutrophication model studies of eastern U.S. estuaries. The model most accurately simulated water quality constituents having a consistent spatial variation within the estuary (e.g. nitrate, salinity), and was least accurate for constituents without a consistent spatial variation (e.g. phosphate, chlorophyll-a). Calibration performance varied widely between the three algal groupings modeled (diatoms and dinoflagellates, cryptomonads and chlorophytes, cyanobacteria). Model performance during verification was comparable to the performance seen during calibration. The model's salinity prediction capabilities were somewhat better in the validation, while dissolved oxygen performance in the validation year was slightly poorer compared to calibration performance. Nutrient and chlorophyll-a performance were virtually the same between the calibration and verification exercises. As part of the TMDL analysis, an unsuccessful attempt was made to capture model error as a component of model uncertainty, but it was found that model residuals were neither unbiased nor normally distributed.

  20. Modelling and calibration with mechatronic blockset for Simulink

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Ole; Szymkat, Maciej


    The paper describes the design considerations for a software tool for modelling and simulation of mechatronic systems. The tool is based on a concept enabling the designer to pick component models that match the physical components of the system to be modelled from a block library. Another...

  1. Innovative Calibration Method for System Level Simulation Models of Internal Combustion Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Prah


    Full Text Available The paper outlines a procedure for the computer-controlled calibration of the combined zero-dimensional (0D and one-dimensional (1D thermodynamic simulation model of a turbocharged internal combustion engine (ICE. The main purpose of the calibration is to determine input parameters of the simulation model in such a way as to achieve the smallest difference between the results of the measurements and the results of the numerical simulations with minimum consumption of the computing time. An innovative calibration methodology is based on a novel interaction between optimization methods and physically based methods of the selected ICE sub-systems. Therein physically based methods were used for steering the division of the integral ICE to several sub-models and for determining parameters of selected components considering their governing equations. Innovative multistage interaction between optimization methods and physically based methods allows, unlike the use of well-established methods that rely only on the optimization techniques, for successful calibration of a large number of input parameters with low time consumption. Therefore, the proposed method is suitable for efficient calibration of simulation models of advanced ICEs.

  2. The Calibration Model and Simulation Analysis of Circular Scanning Airborne Laser Bathymetry System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    SHEN Erhua


    Full Text Available To improve the positioning accuracy of circular scanning airborne laser bathymetry system, a calibration method is presented in this paper. When the laser points are collected by the bathymetry system on the level area, they should be on the same plane. However, they are not coplanar because of systematic error and random error. So we try to fit the points to a plane, which may help to adjust the errors and then correct the point location.Firstly, the circular scanning airborne laser bathymetry positioning model is derived in the simple mode. The intersection of laser line and sea surface is simulated depending on the mathematical principles of line and plane intersection. Combined with the direction vector of laser line in the water got by the refraction principle, the sea floor plane mathematical equation is used to compute the location of the laser points. Then, the parameter weighted least squares adjustment model is derived with the prior variance introduced, which lays the foundation for the following computing of calibration model. Finally, the calibration adjustment mathematic model and the detailed computing process are derived. The simulation computing and analysis for the calibration process is presented, and some meaningful conclusions for the calibration are achieved.

  3. Development of stream-subsurface flow module in sub-daily simulation of Escherichia coli using SWAT (United States)

    Kim, Minjeong; Boithias, Laurie; Cho, Kyung Hwa; Silvera, Norbert; Thammahacksa, Chanthamousone; Latsachack, Keooudone; Rochelle-Newall, Emma; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Pierret, Alain; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; Ribolzi, Olivier


    Water contaminated with pathogenic bacteria poses a large threat to public health, especially in the rural areas in the tropics where sanitation and drinking water facilities are often lacking. Several studies have used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the export of in-stream bacteria at a watershed-scale. However, SWAT is limited to in-stream processes, such as die-off, resuspension and, deposition; and it is usually implemented on a daily time step using the SCS Curve Number method, making it difficult to explore the dynamic fate and transport of bacteria during short but intense events such as flash floods in tropical humid montane headwaters. To address these issues, this study implemented SWAT on an hourly time step using the Green-Ampt infiltration method, and tested the effects of subsurface flow (LATQ+GWQ in SWAT) on bacterial dynamics. We applied the modified SWAT model to the 60-ha Houay Pano catchment in Northern Laos, using sub-daily rainfall and discharge measurements, electric conductivity-derived fractions of overland and subsurface flows, suspended sediments concentrations, and the number of fecal indicator organism Escherichia coli monitored at the catchment outlet from 2011 to 2013. We also took into account land use change by delineating the watershed with the 3-year composite land use map. The results show that low subsurface flow of less than 1 mm recovered the underestimation of E. coli numbers during the dry season, while high subsurface flow caused an overestimation during the wet season. We also found that it is more reasonable to apply the stream-subsurface flow interaction to simulate low in-stream bacteria counts. Using fecal bacteria to identify and understand the possible interactions between overland and subsurface flows may well also provide some insight into the fate of other bacteria, such as those involved in biogeochemical fluxes both in-stream and in the adjacent soils and hyporheic zones.

  4. Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William


    Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

  5. Calibrating and testing a gap model for simulating forest management in the Oregon Coast Range (United States)

    Robert J. Pabst; Matthew N. Goslin; Steven L. Garman; Thomas A. Spies


    The complex mix of economic and ecological objectives facing today's forest managers necessitates the development of growth models with a capacity for simulating a wide range of forest conditions while producing outputs useful for economic analyses. We calibrated the gap model ZELIG to simulate stand level forest development in the Oregon Coast Range as part of a...

  6. Guidebook on LANDFIRE fuels data acquisition, critique, modification, maintenance, and model calibration (United States)

    Richard D. Stratton


    With the advent of LANDFIRE fuels layers, an increasing number of specialists are using the data in a variety of fire modeling systems. However, a comprehensive guide on acquiring, critiquing, and editing (ACE) geospatial fuels data does not exist. This paper provides guidance on ACE as well as on assembling a geospatial fuels team, model calibration, and maintaining...

  7. Calibration of a user-defined mine blast model in LSDYNA and comparison with ale simultions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verreault, J.; Leerdam, P.J.C.; Weerheijm, J.


    The calibration of a user-defined blast model implemented in LS-DYNA is presented using full-scale test rig experiments, partly according to the NATO STANAG 4569 AEP-55 Volume 2 specifications where the charge weight varies between 6 kg and 10 kg and the burial depth is 100 mm and deeper. The model

  8. A Fundamental Parameter-Based Calibration Model for an Intrinsic Germanium X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Leif Højslet; Pind, Niels


    A matrix-independent fundamental parameter-based calibration model for an energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometer has been developed. This model, which is part of a fundamental parameter approach quantification method, accounts for both the excitation and detection probability. For each...

  9. A review of current calibration and validation practices in land-change modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vliet, van Jasper; Bregt, Arnold K.; Brown, Daniel G.; Delden, van Hedwig; Heckbert, Scott; Verburg, Peter H.


    Land-change models are increasingly used to explore land-change dynamics, as well as for policy analyses and scenario studies. In this paper we review calibration and validation approaches adopted for recently published applications of land-change models. We found that statistical analyses and

  10. Calibration and validation of a model describing complete autotrophic nitrogen removal in a granular SBR system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsgaard, Anna Katrine; Mutlu, Ayten Gizem; Gernaey, Krist


    BACKGROUND: A validated model describing the nitritation-anammox process in a granular sequencing batch reactor (SBR) system is an important tool for: a) design of future experiments and b) prediction of process performance during optimization, while applying process control, or during system scale......-up. RESULTS: A model was calibrated using a step-wise procedure customized for the specific needs of the system. The important steps in the procedure were initialization, steady-state and dynamic calibration, and validation. A fast and effective initialization approach was developed to approximate pseudo...... steady-state in the biofilm system. For oxygen mass transfer coefficient (kLa) estimation, long-term data, removal efficiencies, and the stoichiometry of the reactions were used. For the dynamic calibration a pragmatic model fitting approach was used - in this case an iterative Monte Carlo based...

  11. Application of Taguchi Method and Genetic Algorithm for Calibration of Soil Constitutive Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Yazdani


    Full Text Available A special inverse analysis method is established in order to calibrate soil constitutive models. Taguchi method as a systematic sensitivity analysis is conducted to determine the real values of mechanical parameters. This technique was applied on the hardening soil (as an elastoplastic constitutive model which is calibrated using the results from pressuremeter test performed on “Le Rheu” clayey sand. Meanwhile, a genetic algorithm (GA as a well-known optimization technique is used to fit the computed numerical results and observed data of the soil model. This study indicates that the Taguchi method can reasonably calibrate the soil parameters with minimum number of numerical analyses in comparison with GA which needs plenty of analyses. In addition, the contribution of each parameter on mechanical behavior of soil during the test can be determined through the Taguchi method.

  12. Calibration procedure for a potato crop growth model using information from across Europe

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heidmann, Tove; Tofteng, Charlotte; Abrahamsen, Per


    In the FertOrgaNic EU project, 3 years of field experiments with drip irrigation and fertigation were carried out at six different sites across Europe, involving seven different varieties of potato. The Daisy model, which simulates plant growth together with water and nitrogen dynamics, was used...... to simulate the field experiments. An initial potato parameterisation was generated from an independent dataset and was used for site-specific calibrations. At those sites where the same variety was used for all 3 years, the calibration of the initial potato model was based on the first 2 years using the last...... for adaptation of the Daisy model to new potato varieties or for the improvement of the existing parameter set. The procedure is then, as a starting point, to focus the calibration process on the recommended list of parameters to change. We demonstrate this approach by showing the procedure for recalibrating...

  13. Multispectral scanner flight model (F-1) radiometric calibration and alignment handbook (United States)


    This handbook on the calibration of the MSS-D flight model (F-1) provides both the relevant data and a summary description of how the data were obtained for the system radiometric calibration, system relative spectral response, and the filter response characteristics for all 24 channels of the four band MSS-D F-1 scanner. The calibration test procedure and resulting test data required to establish the reference light levels of the MSS-D internal calibration system are discussed. The final set of data ("nominal" calibration wedges for all 24 channels) for the internal calibration system is given. The system relative spectral response measurements for all 24 channels of MSS-D F-1 are included. These data are the spectral response of the complete scanner, which are the composite of the spectral responses of the scan mirror primary and secondary telescope mirrors, fiber optics, optical filters, and detectors. Unit level test data on the measurements of the individual channel optical transmission filters are provided. Measured performance is compared to specification values.

  14. Representative parameter estimation for hydrological models using a lexicographic calibration strategy (United States)

    Gelleszun, Marlene; Kreye, Phillip; Meon, Günter


    We introduce the developed lexicographic calibration strategy to circumvent the imbalance between sophisticated hydrological models in combination with complex optimisation algorithms. The criteria for the evaluation of the approach were (i) robustness and transferability of the resulting parameters, (ii) goodness-of-fit criteria in calibration and validation and (iii) time-efficiency. An order of preference was determined prior to the calibration and the parameters were separated into groups for a stepwise calibration to reduce the search space. A comparison with the global optimisation method SCE-UA showed that only 6% of the calculation time was needed; the conditions total volume, seasonality and shape of the hydrograph were successfully achieved for the calibration and for the cross-validation periods. Furthermore, the parameter sets obtained by the lexicographic calibration strategy for different time periods were much more similar to each other than the parameters obtained by SCE-UA. Besides the similarities of the parameter sets, the goodness-of-fit criteria for the cross-validation were better for the lexicographic approach and the water balance components were also more similar. Thus, we concluded that the resulting parameters were more representative for the corresponding catchments and therefore more suitable for transferability. Time-efficient approximate methods were used to account for parameter uncertainty, confidence intervals and the stability of the solution in the optimum.

  15. Calibration of an advanced material model for a shotcrete lining (United States)

    Chalmovský, Juraj; Závacký, Martin; Miča, Lumír


    Proper choice of a constitutive model is an essential part of any successful application of numerical methods in geotechnical engineering. In most cases, attention is paid to the soil constitutive model. For structural elements, such as tunnel linings, retaining structures etc. elastic constitutive models are often used. These material models however do not involve many aspects of a real structural behavior such as limited tensile and compressive strength, strain softening and time dependent behavior during service life of a construction. In the proposed paper, an application of the novel constitutive model for shotcrete (Schädlich, Schweiger, 2014) is presented. The paper is focused at the process of determination of input parameters values of this model based on performed laboratory test. Section of the primary collector network in Brno was chosen for the purpose of obtaining shotcrete lining samples.

  16. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model (United States)

    Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Perzl, Frank; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Geitner, Clemens


    Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 behavioural model runs with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that

  17. Calibration of parameters of water supply network model using genetic algorithm (United States)

    Boczar, Tomasz; Adamikiewicz, Norbert; Stanisławski, Włodzimierz


    Computer simulation models of water supply networks are commonly applied in the water industry. As part of the research works, results of which are presented in the paper, OFF-LINE and ON-LINE calibration of water supply network model parameters using two methods was carried out and compared. The network skeleton was developed in the Epanet software. For optimization two types of dependent variables were subjected: the pressure on the node and volume flow in the network section. The first calibration method regards to application of the genetic algorithm, which is a build in plugin - "Epanet Calibrator". The second method was related to the use of function ga, which is implemented in the MATLAB toolbox Genetic Algorithm and Direct Search. The possibilities of application of these algorithms to solve the issue of optimizing the parameters of the created model of water supply network in both cases: OFF-LINE and ON-LINE calibration was examined. An analysis of the effectiveness of the considered algorithms for different values of configuration parameters was performed. Based on the achieved results it was stated that application of the ga algorithm gives higher correlation of the calibrated values to the empirical data.

  18. An alternative method for calibration of narrow band radiometer using a radiative transfer model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Salvador, J; Wolfram, E; D' Elia, R [Centro de Investigaciones en Laseres y Aplicaciones, CEILAP (CITEFA-CONICET), Juan B. de La Salle 4397 (B1603ALO), Villa Martelli, Buenos Aires (Argentina); Zamorano, F; Casiccia, C [Laboratorio de Ozono y Radiacion UV, Universidad de Magallanes, Punta Arenas (Chile) (Chile); Rosales, A [Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia San Juan Bosco, UNPSJB, Facultad de Ingenieria, Trelew (Argentina) (Argentina); Quel, E, E-mail: [Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral, Unidad Academica Rio Gallegos Avda. Lisandro de la Torre 1070 ciudad de Rio Gallegos-Sta Cruz (Argentina) (Argentina)


    The continual monitoring of solar UV radiation is one of the major objectives proposed by many atmosphere research groups. The purpose of this task is to determine the status and degree of progress over time of the anthropogenic composition perturbation of the atmosphere. Such changes affect the intensity of the UV solar radiation transmitted through the atmosphere that then interacts with living organisms and all materials, causing serious consequences in terms of human health and durability of materials that interact with this radiation. One of the many challenges that need to be faced to perform these measurements correctly is the maintenance of periodic calibrations of these instruments. Otherwise, damage caused by the UV radiation received will render any one calibration useless after the passage of some time. This requirement makes the usage of these instruments unattractive, and the lack of frequent calibration may lead to the loss of large amounts of acquired data. Motivated by this need to maintain calibration or, at least, know the degree of stability of instrumental behavior, we have developed a calibration methodology that uses the potential of radiative transfer models to model solar radiation with 5% accuracy or better relative to actual conditions. Voltage values in each radiometer channel involved in the calibration process are carefully selected from clear sky data. Thus, tables are constructed with voltage values corresponding to various atmospheric conditions for a given solar zenith angle. Then we model with a radiative transfer model using the same conditions as for the measurements to assemble sets of values for each zenith angle. The ratio of each group (measured and modeled) allows us to calculate the calibration coefficient value as a function of zenith angle as well as the cosine response presented by the radiometer. The calibration results obtained by this method were compared with those obtained with a Brewer MKIII SN 80 located in the

  19. Uncertainty modelling and code calibration for composite materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Branner, Kim; Mishnaevsky, Leon, Jr


    Uncertainties related to the material properties of a composite material can be determined from the micro-, meso- or macro-scales. These three starting points for a stochastic modelling of the material properties are investigated. The uncertainties are divided into physical, model, statistical...

  20. Bayesian Calibration, Validation and Uncertainty Quantification for Predictive Modelling of Tumour Growth: A Tutorial. (United States)

    Collis, Joe; Connor, Anthony J; Paczkowski, Marcin; Kannan, Pavitra; Pitt-Francis, Joe; Byrne, Helen M; Hubbard, Matthew E


    In this work, we present a pedagogical tumour growth example, in which we apply calibration and validation techniques to an uncertain, Gompertzian model of tumour spheroid growth. The key contribution of this article is the discussion and application of these methods (that are not commonly employed in the field of cancer modelling) in the context of a simple model, whose deterministic analogue is widely known within the community. In the course of the example, we calibrate the model against experimental data that are subject to measurement errors, and then validate the resulting uncertain model predictions. We then analyse the sensitivity of the model predictions to the underlying measurement model. Finally, we propose an elementary learning approach for tuning a threshold parameter in the validation procedure in order to maximize predictive accuracy of our validated model.

  1. Towards diagnostic model calibration and evaluation: Approximate Bayesian computation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vrugt, J.A.; Sadegh, M.


    The ever increasing pace of computational power, along with continued advances in measurement technologies and improvements in process understanding has stimulated the development of increasingly complex hydrologic models that simulate soil moisture flow, groundwater recharge, surface runoff, root

  2. Calibration of HEC-Ras hydrodynamic model using gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps (United States)

    Tong, Rui; Komma, Jürgen


    The estimation of flood is essential for disaster alleviation. Hydrodynamic models are implemented to predict the occurrence and variance of flood in different scales. In practice, the calibration of hydrodynamic models aims to search the best possible parameters for the representation the natural flow resistance. Recent years have seen the calibration of hydrodynamic models being more actual and faster following the advance of earth observation products and computer based optimization techniques. In this study, the Hydrologic Engineering River Analysis System (HEC-Ras) model was set up with high-resolution digital elevation model from Laser scanner for the river Inn in Tyrol, Austria. 10 largest flood events from 19 hourly discharge gauges and flood inundation maps were selected to calibrate the HEC-Ras model. Manning roughness values and lateral inflow factors as parameters were automatically optimized with the Shuffled complex with Principal component analysis (SP-UCI) algorithm developed from the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA). Different objective functions (Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, the timing of peak, peak value and Root-mean-square deviation) were used in single or multiple way. It was found that the lateral inflow factor was the most sensitive parameter. SP-UCI algorithm could avoid the local optimal and achieve efficient and effective parameters in the calibration of HEC-Ras model using flood extension images. As results showed, calibration by means of gauged discharge data and flood inundation maps, together with objective function of Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient, was very robust to obtain more reliable flood simulation, and also to catch up with the peak value and the timing of peak.

  3. Identifying best-fitting inputs in health-economic model calibration: a Pareto frontier approach. (United States)

    Enns, Eva A; Cipriano, Lauren E; Simons, Cyrena T; Kong, Chung Yin


    To identify best-fitting input sets using model calibration, individual calibration target fits are often combined into a single goodness-of-fit (GOF) measure using a set of weights. Decisions in the calibration process, such as which weights to use, influence which sets of model inputs are identified as best-fitting, potentially leading to different health economic conclusions. We present an alternative approach to identifying best-fitting input sets based on the concept of Pareto-optimality. A set of model inputs is on the Pareto frontier if no other input set simultaneously fits all calibration targets as well or better. We demonstrate the Pareto frontier approach in the calibration of 2 models: a simple, illustrative Markov model and a previously published cost-effectiveness model of transcatheter aortic valve replacement (TAVR). For each model, we compare the input sets on the Pareto frontier to an equal number of best-fitting input sets according to 2 possible weighted-sum GOF scoring systems, and we compare the health economic conclusions arising from these different definitions of best-fitting. For the simple model, outcomes evaluated over the best-fitting input sets according to the 2 weighted-sum GOF schemes were virtually nonoverlapping on the cost-effectiveness plane and resulted in very different incremental cost-effectiveness ratios ($79,300 [95% CI 72,500-87,600] v. $139,700 [95% CI 79,900-182,800] per quality-adjusted life-year [QALY] gained). Input sets on the Pareto frontier spanned both regions ($79,000 [95% CI 64,900-156,200] per QALY gained). The TAVR model yielded similar results. Choices in generating a summary GOF score may result in different health economic conclusions. The Pareto frontier approach eliminates the need to make these choices by using an intuitive and transparent notion of optimality as the basis for identifying best-fitting input sets. © The Author(s) 2014.

  4. Assessing groundwater vulnerability in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, using a calibrated DRASTIC model (United States)

    Mfumu Kihumba, Antoine; Vanclooster, Marnik; Ndembo Longo, Jean


    This study assessed the vulnerability of groundwater against pollution in the Kinshasa region, DR Congo, as a support of a groundwater protection program. The parametric vulnerability model (DRASTIC) was modified and calibrated to predict the intrinsic vulnerability as well as the groundwater pollution risk. The method uses groundwater body specific parameters for the calibration of the factor ratings and weightings of the original DRASTIC model. These groundwater specific parameters are inferred from the statistical relation between the original DRASTIC model and observed nitrate pollution for a specific period. In addition, site-specific land use parameters are integrated into the method. The method is fully embedded in a Geographic Information System (GIS). Following these modifications, the correlation coefficient between groundwater pollution risk and observed nitrate concentrations for the 2013-2014 survey improved from r = 0.42, for the original DRASTIC model, to r = 0.61 for the calibrated model. As a way to validate this pollution risk map, observed nitrate concentrations from another survey (2008) are compared to pollution risk indices showing a good degree of coincidence with r = 0.51. The study shows that a calibration of a vulnerability model is recommended when vulnerability maps are used for groundwater resource management and land use planning at the regional scale and that it is adapted to a specific area.

  5. Effect of heteroscedasticity treatment in residual error models on model calibration and prediction uncertainty estimation (United States)

    Sun, Ruochen; Yuan, Huiling; Liu, Xiaoli


    The heteroscedasticity treatment in residual error models directly impacts the model calibration and prediction uncertainty estimation. This study compares three methods to deal with the heteroscedasticity, including the explicit linear modeling (LM) method and nonlinear modeling (NL) method using hyperbolic tangent function, as well as the implicit Box-Cox transformation (BC). Then a combined approach (CA) combining the advantages of both LM and BC methods has been proposed. In conjunction with the first order autoregressive model and the skew exponential power (SEP) distribution, four residual error models are generated, namely LM-SEP, NL-SEP, BC-SEP and CA-SEP, and their corresponding likelihood functions are applied to the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) hydrologic model over the Huaihe River basin, China. Results show that the LM-SEP yields the poorest streamflow predictions with the widest uncertainty band and unrealistic negative flows. The NL and BC methods can better deal with the heteroscedasticity and hence their corresponding predictive performances are improved, yet the negative flows cannot be avoided. The CA-SEP produces the most accurate predictions with the highest reliability and effectively avoids the negative flows, because the CA approach is capable of addressing the complicated heteroscedasticity over the study basin.

  6. Calibration under uncertainty for finite element models of masonry monuments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Atamturktur, Sezer,; Hemez, Francois,; Unal, Cetin


    Historical unreinforced masonry buildings often include features such as load bearing unreinforced masonry vaults and their supporting framework of piers, fill, buttresses, and walls. The masonry vaults of such buildings are among the most vulnerable structural components and certainly among the most challenging to analyze. The versatility of finite element (FE) analyses in incorporating various constitutive laws, as well as practically all geometric configurations, has resulted in the widespread use of the FE method for the analysis of complex unreinforced masonry structures over the last three decades. However, an FE model is only as accurate as its input parameters, and there are two fundamental challenges while defining FE model input parameters: (1) material properties and (2) support conditions. The difficulties in defining these two aspects of the FE model arise from the lack of knowledge in the common engineering understanding of masonry behavior. As a result, engineers are unable to define these FE model input parameters with certainty, and, inevitably, uncertainties are introduced to the FE model.

  7. Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. pollen simulations over the Euro-CORDEX domain: model description and emission calibration (United States)

    liu, li; Solmon, Fabien; Giorgi, Filippo; Vautard, Robert


    Ragweed Ambrosia artemisiifolia L. is a highly allergenic invasive plant. Its pollen can be transported over large distances and has been recognized as a significant cause of hayfever and asthma (D'Amato et al., 2007). In the context of the ATOPICA EU program we are studying the links between climate, land use and ecological changes on the ragweed pollen emissions and concentrations. For this purpose, we implemented a pollen emission/transport module in the RegCM4 regional climate model in collaboration with ATOPICA partners. The Abdus Salam International Centre for Theoretical Physics (ICTP) regional climate model, i.e. RegCM4 was adapted to incorporate the pollen emissions from (ORCHIDEE French) Global Land Surface Model and a pollen tracer model for describing pollen convective transport, turbulent mixing, dry and wet deposition over extensive domains, using consistent assumption regarding the transport of multiple species (Fabien et al., 2008). We performed two families of recent-past simulations on the Euro-Cordex domain (simulation for future condition is been considering). Hindcast simulations (2000~2011) were driven by the ERA-Interim re-analyses and designed to best simulate past periods airborne pollens, which were calibrated with parts of observations and verified by comparison with the additional observations. Historical simulations (1985~2004) were driven by HadGEM CMPI5 and designed to serve as a baseline for comparison with future airborne concentrations as obtained from climate and land-use scenarios. To reduce the uncertainties on the ragweed pollen emission, an assimilation-like method (Rouǐl et al., 2009) was used to calibrate release based on airborne pollen observations. The observations were divided into two groups and used for calibration and validation separately. A wide range of possible calibration coefficients were tested for each calibration station, making the bias between observations and simulations within an admissible value then

  8. An auto-calibration procedure for empirical solar radiation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bojanowski, J.S.; Donatelli, Marcello; Skidmore, A.K.; Vrieling, A.


    Solar radiation data are an important input for estimating evapotranspiration and modelling crop growth. Direct measurement of solar radiation is now carried out in most European countries, but the network of measuring stations is too sparse for reliable interpolation of measured values. Instead of

  9. Calibration of a finite element composite delamination model by experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gaiotti, M.; Rizzo, C.M.; Branner, Kim


    distinct sub-laminates. The work focuses on experimental validation of a finite element model built using the 9-noded MITC9 shell elements, which prevent locking effects and aiming to capture the highly non linear buckling features involved in the problem. The geometry has been numerically defined...

  10. Utilizing inventory information to calibrate a landscape simulation model (United States)

    Steven R. Shifley; Frank R., III Thompson; David R. Larsen; David J. Mladenoff; Eric J. Gustafson


    LANDIS is a spatially explicit model that uses mapped landscape conditions as a starting point and projects the patterns in forest vegetation that will result from alternative harvest practices, alternative fire regimes, and wind events. LANDIS was originally developed for Lake States forests, but it is capable of handling the input, output, bookkeeping, and mapping...

  11. Model calibration for the carbon dioxide-amine absorption system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Errico, Massimiliano; Madeddu, Claudio; Pinna, Daniele


    to correctly define the number of segments required in the rate-based model. Moreover, the uncertainty in the kinetic parameters associated to the reaction between MEA and CO2 reaction was examined to define a new set of values that minimize the standard error between the experimental and predicted temperature...... an appropriate control system....

  12. Experimental validation and calibration of pedestrian loading models for footbridges

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ricciardelli, Fransesco; Briatico, C; Ingólfsson, Einar Thór


    Different patterns of pedestrian loading of footbridges exist, whose occurrence depends on a number of parameters, such as the bridge span, frequency, damping and mass, and the pedestrian density and activity. In this paper analytical models for the transient action of one walker and for the stat...

  13. Calibration of Airframe and Occupant Models for Two Full-Scale Rotorcraft Crash Tests (United States)

    Annett, Martin S.; Horta, Lucas G.; Polanco, Michael A.


    Two full-scale crash tests of an MD-500 helicopter were conducted in 2009 and 2010 at NASA Langley's Landing and Impact Research Facility in support of NASA s Subsonic Rotary Wing Crashworthiness Project. The first crash test was conducted to evaluate the performance of an externally mounted composite deployable energy absorber under combined impact conditions. In the second crash test, the energy absorber was removed to establish baseline loads that are regarded as severe but survivable. Accelerations and kinematic data collected from the crash tests were compared to a system integrated finite element model of the test article. Results from 19 accelerometers placed throughout the airframe were compared to finite element model responses. The model developed for the purposes of predicting acceleration responses from the first crash test was inadequate when evaluating more severe conditions seen in the second crash test. A newly developed model calibration approach that includes uncertainty estimation, parameter sensitivity, impact shape orthogonality, and numerical optimization was used to calibrate model results for the second full-scale crash test. This combination of heuristic and quantitative methods was used to identify modeling deficiencies, evaluate parameter importance, and propose required model changes. It is shown that the multi-dimensional calibration techniques presented here are particularly effective in identifying model adequacy. Acceleration results for the calibrated model were compared to test results and the original model results. There was a noticeable improvement in the pilot and co-pilot region, a slight improvement in the occupant model response, and an over-stiffening effect in the passenger region. This approach should be adopted early on, in combination with the building-block approaches that are customarily used, for model development and test planning guidance. Complete crash simulations with validated finite element models can be used

  14. Calibrating a Salt Water Intrusion Model with Time-Domain Electromagnetic Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Herckenrath, Daan; Odlum, Nick; Nenna, Vanessa


    Salt water intrusion models are commonly used to support groundwater resource management in coastal aquifers. Concentration data used for model calibration are often sparse and limited in spatial extent. With airborne and ground-based electromagnetic surveys, electrical resistivity models can...... be obtained to provide high-resolution three-dimensional models of subsurface resistivity variations that can be related to geology and salt concentrations on a regional scale. Several previous studies have calibrated salt water intrusion models with geophysical data, but are typically limited to the use......, we perform a coupled hydrogeophysical inversion (CHI) in which we use a salt water intrusion model to interpret the geophysical data and guide the geophysical inversion. We refer to this methodology as a Coupled Hydrogeophysical Inversion-State (CHI-S), in which simulated salt concentrations...

  15. Statistical validation of engineering and scientific models : bounds, calibration, and extrapolation.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dowding, Kevin J.; Hills, Richard Guy (New Mexico State University, Las Cruces, NM)


    Numerical models of complex phenomena often contain approximations due to our inability to fully model the underlying physics, the excessive computational resources required to fully resolve the physics, the need to calibrate constitutive models, or in some cases, our ability to only bound behavior. Here we illustrate the relationship between approximation, calibration, extrapolation, and model validation through a series of examples that use the linear transient convective/dispersion equation to represent the nonlinear behavior of Burgers equation. While the use of these models represents a simplification relative to the types of systems we normally address in engineering and science, the present examples do support the tutorial nature of this document without obscuring the basic issues presented with unnecessarily complex models.

  16. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Applicability on Nutrients Loadings Prediction in Mountainous Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) Watershed, Utah. (United States)

    Salha, A. A.; Stevens, D. K.


    The application of watershed simulation models is indispensable when pollution is generated by a nonpoint source. These models should be able to simulate large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. This study presents the application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate, manage, and research the transport and fate of nutrients in (Subbasin HUC 16010204) Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) watershed, Box elder County, Utah. Water quality problems arise primarily from high phosphorus and total suspended sediment concentrations that were caused by increasing agricultural and farming activities and complex network of canals and ducts of varying sizes and carrying capacities that transport water (for farming and agriculture uses). Using the available input data (Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use/Land cover (LULC), soil map and weather and climate data for 20 years (1990-2010) to predict the water quantity and quality of the LBMR watershed using a spatially distributed model version of hydrological ArcSWAT model (ArcSWAT 2012.10_1.14). No previous studies have been found in the literature regarding an in-depth simulation study of the Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) watershed to simulate stream flow and to quantify the associated movement of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment. It is expected that the model mainly will predict monthly mean total phosphorus (TP) concentration and loadings in a mountainous LBRM watershed (steep Wellsville mountain range with peak of (2,857 m)) having into consideration the snow and runoff variables affecting the prediction process. The simulated nutrient concentrations were properly consistent with observations based on the R2 and Nash- Sutcliffe fitness factors. Further, the model will be able to manage and assess the land application in that area with corresponding to proper BMPs regarding water quality management. Keywords: Water Quality Modeling; Soil and

  17. Importance of prediction outlier diagnostics in determining a successful inter-vendor multivariate calibration model transfer. (United States)

    Guenard, Robert D; Wehlburg, Christine M; Pell, Randy J; Haaland, David M


    This paper reports on the transfer of calibration models between Fourier transform near-infrared (FT-NIR) instruments from four different manufacturers. The piecewise direct standardization (PDS) method is compared with the new hybrid calibration method known as prediction augmented classical least squares/partial least squares (PACLS/PLS). The success of a calibration transfer experiment is judged by prediction error and by the number of samples that are flagged as outliers that would not have been flagged as such if a complete recalibration were performed. Prediction results must be acceptable and the outlier diagnostics capabilities must be preserved for the transfer to be deemed successful. Previous studies have measured the success of a calibration transfer method by comparing only the prediction performance (e.g., the root mean square error of prediction, RMSEP). However, our study emphasizes the need to consider outlier detection performance as well. As our study illustrates, the RMSEP values for a calibration transfer can be within acceptable range; however, statistical analysis of the spectral residuals can show that differences in outlier performance can vary significantly between competing transfer methods. There was no statistically significant difference in the prediction error between the PDS and PACLS/PLS methods when the same subset sample selection method was used for both methods. However, the PACLS/PLS method was better at preserving the outlier detection capabilities and therefore was judged to have performed better than the PDS algorithm when transferring calibrations with the use of a subset of samples to define the transfer function. The method of sample subset selection was found to make a significant difference in the calibration transfer results using the PDS algorithm, while the transfer results were less sensitive to subset selection when the PACLS/PLS method was used.

  18. Calibrated and Interactive Modelling of Form-Active Hybrid Structures

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quinn, Gregory; Holden Deleuran, Anders; Piker, Daniel


    at a fraction of the weight of traditional building elements and do so with a clear aesthetic expression of force flow and equilibrium. The design of FAHS is limited by one significant restriction: the geometry definition, form-finding and structural analysis are typically performed in separate and bespoke...... software packages which introduce interruptions and data exchange issues in the modelling pipeline. The mechanical precision, stability and open software architecture of Kangaroo has facilitated the development of proof-of-concept modelling pipelines which tackle this challenge and enable powerful...... materially-informed sketching. Making use of a projection-based dynamic relaxation solver for structural analysis, explorative design has proven to be highly effective....

  19. Phytoplankton Productivity numerical model: calibration via laboratory cultures (United States)

    Zavatarelli, Marco; fiori, Emanuela; Carolina, Amadio


    The primary production module of the "Biogeochemical Flux Model" (BFM) has been used to replicate results from laboratory phytoplankton cultures of diatoms, dinoflagellates and picophytoplankton. The model explicitly solve for the phytoplankton, chlorophyll, carbon, phosphorus, nitrogen and (diatoms only) silicon content. Simulations of the temporal evolution of the cultured phytoplankton biomass, have been carried out in order to provide a correct parameterization of the temperature role in modulating the growth dynamics, and to gain insight in the process of chlorophyll turnover, with particular reference to the phytoplankton biomass decay in condition of nutrient stress. Results highligthed some limitation of the Q10 approach in defining the temperature constraints on the primary production (particularly at relatively high temperature) This required a modification of such approach. Moreover, the decay of the chlorophyll concentration under nutrient stress, appeared (as expected) significantly decoupled from the evolution of the carbon content. The implementation of a specific procedure (based on the laboratory culture results) adressing such decoupling, allowed for the achievement of better agreement between model and observations.

  20. Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model using observed spatial patterns from MODIS data (United States)

    Demirel, Mehmet C.; González, Gorka M.; Mai, Juliane; Stisen, Simon


    Distributed hydrologic models are typically calibrated against streamflow observations at the outlet of the basin. Along with these observations from gauging stations, satellite based estimates offer independent evaluation data such as remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration (aET) and land surface temperature. The primary objective of the study is to compare model calibrations against traditional downstream discharge measurements with calibrations against simulated spatial patterns and combinations of both types of observations. While the discharge based model calibration typically improves the temporal dynamics of the model, it seems to give rise to minimum improvement of the simulated spatial patterns. In contrast, objective functions specifically targeting the spatial pattern performance could potentially increase the spatial model performance. However, most modeling studies, including the model formulations and parameterization, are not designed to actually change the simulated spatial pattern during calibration. This study investigates the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mesoscale hydrologic model (mHM). This model is selected as it allows for a change in the spatial distribution of key soil parameters through the optimization of pedo-transfer function parameters and includes options for using fully distributed daily Leaf Area Index (LAI) values directly as input. In addition the simulated aET can be estimated at a spatial resolution suitable for comparison to the spatial patterns observed with MODIS data. To increase our control on spatial calibration we introduced three additional parameters to the model. These new parameters are part of an empirical equation to the calculate crop coefficient (Kc) from daily LAI maps and used to update potential evapotranspiration (PET) as model inputs. This is done instead of correcting/updating PET with just a uniform (or aspect driven) factor used in the mHM model

  1. Using Automated On-Site Monitoring to Calibrate Empirical Models of Trihalomethanes Concentrations in Drinking Water


    Thomas E. Watts III; Robyn A. Snow; Brown, Aaron W.; J. C. York; Greg Fantom; Paul S. Simone Jr.; Emmert, Gary L.


    An automated, on-site trihalomethanes concentration data set from a conventional water treatment plant was used to optimize powdered activated carbon and pre-chlorination doses. The trihalomethanes concentration data set was used with commonly monitored water quality parameters to improve an empirical model of trihalomethanes formation. A calibrated model was used to predict trihalomethanes concentrations the following year. The agreement between the models and measurements was evaluated. The...

  2. Calibration of transient groundwater models using time series analysis and moment matching

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bakker, M.; Maas, K.; Von Asmuth, J.R.


    A comprehensive and efficient approach is presented for the calibration of transient groundwater models. The approach starts with the time series analysis of the measured heads in observation wells using all active stresses as input series, which may include rainfall, evaporation, surface water

  3. Performance and Model Calibration of R-D-N Processes in Pilot Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    de la Sota, A.; Larrea, L.; Novak, L.


    This paper deals with the first part of an experimental programme in a pilot plant configured for advanced biological nutrient removal processes treating domestic wastewater of Bilbao. The IAWPRC Model No.1 was calibrated in order to optimize the design of the full-scale plant. In this first phas...

  4. Complex permittivity model for time domain reflectometry soil water content sensing: II. Calibration (United States)

    Despite numerous applications of time domain reflectometry (TDR), serious difficulties in estimating accurate soil water contents under field conditions remain, especially in fine-textured soils. Our objectives were to calibrate a complex dielectric mixing model described by Schwartz et al. (this is...

  5. Comparison of "E-Rater"[R] Automated Essay Scoring Model Calibration Methods Based on Distributional Targets (United States)

    Zhang, Mo; Williamson, David M.; Breyer, F. Jay; Trapani, Catherine


    This article describes two separate, related studies that provide insight into the effectiveness of "e-rater" score calibration methods based on different distributional targets. In the first study, we developed and evaluated a new type of "e-rater" scoring model that was cost-effective and applicable under conditions of absent human rating and…

  6. Using time-lapse gravity for groundwater model calibration: An application to alluvial aquifer storage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars; Binning, Philip John; Rosbjerg, Dan


    The estimation of hydrological model parameters by calibration to field data is a critical step in the modeling process. However, calibration often fails because of parameter correlation. Here it is shown that time-lapse gravity data can be combined with hydraulic head data in a coupled hydrogeop......The estimation of hydrological model parameters by calibration to field data is a critical step in the modeling process. However, calibration often fails because of parameter correlation. Here it is shown that time-lapse gravity data can be combined with hydraulic head data in a coupled...... shows that time-lapse gravity data are especially useful to constrain specific yield. Furthermore, we demonstrate that evapotranspiration, and riverbed conductance are better constrained by coupled inversion to gravity and head data than to head data alone. When estimating the four parameters...... simultaneously, the six correlation coefficients were reduced from unity when only head data were employed to significantly lower values when gravity and head data were combined. Our analysis reveals that the estimated parameter values are not very sensitive to the choice of weighting between head and gravity...

  7. Analysis and classification of data sets for calibration and validation of agro-ecosystem models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kersebaum, K C; Boote, K J; Jorgenson, J S


    Experimental field data are used at different levels of complexity to calibrate, validate and improve agro-ecosystem models to enhance their reliability for regional impact assessment. A methodological framework and software are presented to evaluate and classify data sets into four classes...

  8. Calibrating the Shan-Chen lattice Boltzmann model for immiscible displacement in porous media

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Britt Stenhøj Baun; Schaap, M.G.; Wildenschild, D.


    physical system; in this case observed oil-water displacement experiments. For this purpose, we use simple, well-characterized, two-fluid-phase systems that furthermore function as a test of the code. The calibrated model is shown to produce realistic capillary pressures, within the pressure range...

  9. Calibration of a Numerical Model for Heat Transfer and Fluid Flow in an Extruder

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hofstätter, Thomas; Pedersen, David Bue; Nielsen, Jakob Skov


    This paper discusses experiments performed in order to validate simulations on a fused deposition modelling (FDM) extruder. The nozzle has been simulated in terms of heat transfer and fluid flow. In order to calibrate and validate these simulations, experiments were performed giving a significant...

  10. The Active Model: a calibration of material intent

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ramsgaard Thomsen, Mette; Tamke, Martin


    created it. This definition suggests structural characteristics that are perhaps not immediately obvious when implemented within architectural models. It opens the idea that materiality might persist into the digital environment, as well as the digital lingering within the material. It implies questions......This chapter examines the idea that material behaviour might persist across the digital/material divide. It looks to the connection between architectural representation and material, and seeks to develop an understanding of persistence as a relational quality that outlives the processes that have...

  11. Model independent approach to the single photoelectron calibration of photomultiplier tubes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Saldanha, R.; Grandi, L.; Guardincerri, Y.; Wester, T.


    The accurate calibration of photomultiplier tubes is critical in a wide variety of applications in which it is necessary to know the absolute number of detected photons or precisely determine the resolution of the signal. Conventional calibration methods rely on fitting the photomultiplier response to a low intensity light source with analytical approximations to the single photoelectron distribution, often leading to biased estimates due to the inability to accurately model the full distribution, especially at low charge values. In this paper we present a simple statistical method to extract the relevant single photoelectron calibration parameters without making any assumptions about the underlying single photoelectron distribution. We illustrate the use of this method through the calibration of a Hamamatsu R11410 photomultiplier tube and study the accuracy and precision of the method using Monte Carlo simulations. The method is found to have significantly reduced bias compared to conventional methods and works under a wide range of light intensities, making it suitable for simultaneously calibrating large arrays of photomultiplier tubes.

  12. Improving the Calibration of the SN Ia Anchor Datasets with a Bayesian Hierarchal Model (United States)

    Currie, Miles; Rubin, David


    Inter-survey calibration remains one of the largest systematic uncertainties in SN Ia cosmology today. Ideally, each survey would measure their system throughputs and observe well characterized spectrophotometric standard stars, but many important surveys have not done so. For these surveys, we calibrate using tertiary survey stars tied to SDSS and Pan-STARRS. We improve on previous efforts by taking the spatially variable response of each telescope/camera into account, and using improved color transformations in the surveys’ natural instrumental photometric system. We use a global hierarchical model of the data, automatically providing a covariance matrix of magnitude offsets and bandpass shifts which reduces the systematic uncertainty in inter-survey calibration, thereby providing better cosmological constraints.

  13. Calibration and Monte Carlo modelling of neutron long counters

    CERN Document Server

    Tagziria, H


    The Monte Carlo technique has become a very powerful tool in radiation transport as full advantage is taken of enhanced cross-section data, more powerful computers and statistical techniques, together with better characterisation of neutron and photon source spectra. At the National Physical Laboratory, calculations using the Monte Carlo radiation transport code MCNP-4B have been combined with accurate measurements to characterise two long counters routinely used to standardise monoenergetic neutron fields. New and more accurate response function curves have been produced for both long counters. A novel approach using Monte Carlo methods has been developed, validated and used to model the response function of the counters and determine more accurately their effective centres, which have always been difficult to establish experimentally. Calculations and measurements agree well, especially for the De Pangher long counter for which details of the design and constructional material are well known. The sensitivit...

  14. How effective and efficient are multiobjective evolutionary algorithms at hydrologic model calibration?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tang


    Full Text Available This study provides a comprehensive assessment of state-of-the-art evolutionary multiobjective optimization (EMO tools' relative effectiveness in calibrating hydrologic models. The relative computational efficiency, accuracy, and ease-of-use of the following EMO algorithms are tested: Epsilon Dominance Nondominated Sorted Genetic Algorithm-II (ε-NSGAII, the Multiobjective Shuffled Complex Evolution Metropolis algorithm (MOSCEM-UA, and the Strength Pareto Evolutionary Algorithm 2 (SPEA2. This study uses three test cases to compare the algorithms' performances: (1 a standardized test function suite from the computer science literature, (2 a benchmark hydrologic calibration test case for the Leaf River near Collins, Mississippi, and (3 a computationally intensive integrated surface-subsurface model application in the Shale Hills watershed in Pennsylvania. One challenge and contribution of this work is the development of a methodology for comprehensively comparing EMO algorithms that have different search operators and randomization techniques. Overall, SPEA2 attained competitive to superior results for most of the problems tested in this study. The primary strengths of the SPEA2 algorithm lie in its search reliability and its diversity preservation operator. The biggest challenge in maximizing the performance of SPEA2 lies in specifying an effective archive size without a priori knowledge of the Pareto set. In practice, this would require significant trial-and-error analysis, which is problematic for more complex, computationally intensive calibration applications. ε-NSGAII appears to be superior to MOSCEM-UA and competitive with SPEA2 for hydrologic model calibration. ε-NSGAII's primary strength lies in its ease-of-use due to its dynamic population sizing and archiving which lead to rapid convergence to very high quality solutions with minimal user input. MOSCEM-UA is best suited for hydrologic model calibration applications that have small

  15. Evaluation of evapotranspiration methods for model validation in a semi-arid watershed in northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Schneider


    Full Text Available This study evaluates the performance of four evapotranspiration methods (Priestley-Taylor, Penman-Monteith, Hargreaves and Makkink of differing complexity in a semi-arid environment in north China. The results are compared to observed water vapour fluxes derived from eddy flux measurements. The analysis became necessary after discharge simulations using an automatically calibrated version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT failed to reproduce runoff measurements. Although the study area receives most of the annual rainfall during the vegetation period, high temperatures can cause water scarcity. We investigate which evapotranspiration method is most suitable for this environment and whether the model performance of SWAT can be improved with the most adequate evapotranspiration method.

    The evapotranspiration models were tested in two consecutive years with different rainfall amounts. In general, the simple Hargreaves and Makkink equations outmatch the more complex Priestley-Taylor and Penman-Monteith methods, although their performance depended on water availability. Effects on the quality of SWAT runoff simulations, however, remained minor. Although evapotranspiration is an important process in the hydrology of this steppe environment, our analysis indicates that other driving factors still need to be identified to improve SWAT simulations.

  16. SWATS: Diurnal Trends in the Soil Temperature Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, David [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Theisen, Adam [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)


    During the processing of data for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ARMBE2D Value-Added Product (VAP), the developers noticed that the SWATS soil temperatures did not show a decreased temporal variability with increased depth with the new E30+ Extended Facilities (EFs), unlike the older EFs at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The instrument mentor analyzed the data and reported that all SWATS locations have shown this behavior but that the magnitude of the problem was greatest at EFs E31-E38. The data were analyzed to verify the initial assessments of: 1. 5 cm SWATS data were valid for all EFs and 15 cm soil temperature measurements were valid at all EFs other than E31-E38, 2. Use only nighttime SWATS soil temperature measurements to calculate daily average soil temperatures, 3. Since it seems likely that the soil temperature measurements below 15cm were affected by the solar heating of the enclosure at all but E31-38, and at all depths below 5cm at E31-38, individual measurements of soil temperature at these depths during daylight hours, and daily averages of the same, can ot be trusted on most (particularly sunny) days.

  17. Residues of cypermethrin and endosulfan in soils of Swat valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Nafees


    Full Text Available Swat Valley was studied for two widely used pesticides; cypermethrin and endosulfan. A total of 63 soil samples were collected from 27 villages selected for this purpose. The collected soil samples were extracted with n-hexane, pesticides were separated, identified and quantified by a GC-ECD system. Endosulfan was 0.24 - 1.51 mg kg-1 and 0.13 - 12.67 mg kg-1 in rainfed and irrigated areas, respectively. The residual level of cypermethrin was comparatively high with a level of0.14 to 27.62 mg kg-1 and 0.05 to 73.75 mg kg-1 in rainfed and irrigated areas, respectively. For assessing the possible causes of pesticide residues in soil, 360 farmers were interviewed. It was found that both, cypermethrin and endosulfan, apart from agriculture were also widely misused for fishing in the entire stretch of River Swat and its tributaries. River Swat is used for irrigation in Swat Valley and this wide misuse of pesticides can also contribute to pesticide residue in soil.

  18. Malnutrition amongst Under-Five Years Children in Swat, Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... The incidence of malnutrition is about the same for both male and female children. Risk factors for malnutrition in the children include lack of education, teenage pregnancy, lack of immunization, and large family size. Keywords: Malnutrition, Gomezfs classification, Weaning time, Risk factors, Teenage pregnancy, Swat ...

  19. Calibration of parameters of water supply network model using genetic algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boczar Tomasz


    Full Text Available Computer simulation models of water supply networks are commonly applied in the water industry. As part of the research works, results of which are presented in the paper, OFF-LINE and ON-LINE calibration of water supply network model parameters using two methods was carried out and compared. The network skeleton was developed in the Epanet software. For optimization two types of dependent variables were subjected: the pressure on the node and volume flow in the network section. The first calibration method regards to application of the genetic algorithm, which is a build in plugin - “Epanet Calibrator”. The second method was related to the use of function ga, which is implemented in the MATLAB toolbox Genetic Algorithm and Direct Search. The possibilities of application of these algorithms to solve the issue of optimizing the parameters of the created model of water supply network in both cases: OFF-LINE and ON-LINE calibration was examined. An analysis of the effectiveness of the considered algorithms for different values of configuration parameters was performed. Based on the achieved results it was stated that application of the ga algorithm gives higher correlation of the calibrated values to the empirical data.

  20. Experimental calibration of the mathematical model of Air Torque Position dampers with non-cascading blades

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bikić Siniša M.


    Full Text Available This paper is focused on the mathematical model of the Air Torque Position dampers. The mathematical model establishes a link between the velocity of air in front of the damper, position of the damper blade and the moment acting on the blade caused by the air flow. This research aims to experimentally verify the mathematical model for the damper type with non-cascading blades. Four different types of dampers with non-cascading blades were considered: single blade dampers, dampers with two cross-blades, dampers with two parallel blades and dampers with two blades of which one is a fixed blade in the horizontal position. The case of a damper with a straight pipeline positioned in front of and behind the damper was taken in consideration. Calibration and verification of the mathematical model was conducted experimentally. The experiment was conducted on the laboratory facility for testing dampers used for regulation of the air flow rate in heating, ventilation and air conditioning systems. The design and setup of the laboratory facility, as well as construction, adjustment and calibration of the laboratory damper are presented in this paper. The mathematical model was calibrated by using one set of data, while the verification of the mathematical model was conducted by using the second set of data. The mathematical model was successfully validated and it can be used for accurate measurement of the air velocity on dampers with non-cascading blades under different operating conditions. [Projekat Ministarstva nauke Republike Srbije, br. TR31058

  1. A 3D Voronoi and subdivision model for calibration of rock properties (United States)

    Zhu, De-Fu; Tu, Shi-Hao; Ma, Hang-sheng; Zhang, Xin-wang


    Rock cleavages consist of the cracks between blocks and the internal faults in blocks. The built-in modeling module in the Three-dimension Distinct Element Code cannot accurately describe the internal structure and the cleavage development characteristics of rock. This study combined 3D Voronoi block elements and scanning electron microscope images, to construct a numerical model equivalent to the rock meso structures. Three strategies are proposed to refine the initial model by block subdivision to achieve a function that allows cleavages in the model to cross through the blocks. A physical uniaxial compression test was performed in the laboratory to calibrate the mechanical parameters of the siltstone and the calibrated parameters then were validated by a Brazilian disc test. Sensitivity analysis was conducted to investigate the relationship between the meso-parameters and the model’s macro-response, and a calibration procedure was established for accurate replication of rock mechanical behavior. The statistics and analyses of failure characteristics for joints in the model showed that when the compressive and tensile strength values peaked, the percentages of tensile failures were approximately 37% and 10%, respectively. Comparing the cleavages after sample failure in lab tests with the cleavage development paths predicted by the models, the compressive and tensile characteristics were analyzed and the results confirmed the reliability of applying the 3D Voronoi block and subdivision modeling method in the numerical simulation study of the mechanical properties of the rock.

  2. Calibrating a trip distribution gravity model stratified by the trip purposes for the city of Alexandria


    Abdel-Aal, Mounir Mahmoud Moghazy


    The trip distribution is the most important yet the most misunderstood model in the Urban Transportation Planning Process (UTPP). One overlooked aspect is the different sensitivities in choosing the destinations based on the trip purposes. This paper proposes a framework to calibrate a doubly-constrained gravity model for the trip distribution of the city of Alexandria based on a Household Travel Survey carried out in 2002. The trip ends are estimated from the available census data. Important...

  3. Hydrological Modeling of the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment Hunza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khan Garee


    Full Text Available The Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT model combined with a temperature index and elevation band algorithm was applied to the Hunza watershed, where snow and glacier-melt are the major contributor to river flow. This study’s uniqueness is its use of a snow melt algorithm (temperature index with elevation bands combined with the SWAT, applied to evaluate the performance of the SWAT model in the highly snow and glacier covered watershed of the Upper Indus Basin in response to climate change on future streamflow volume at the outlet of the Hunza watershed, and its contribution to the Indus River System in both space and time, despite its limitation; it is not designed to cover the watershed of heterogeneous mountains. The model was calibrated for the years 1998–2004 and validated for the years 2008–2010. The model performance is evaluated using the four recommended statistical coefficients with uncertainty analysis (p-factor and r-factor. Simulations generated good calibration and validation results for the daily flow gauge. The model efficiency was evaluated, and a strong relationship was observed between the simulated and observed flows. The model results give a coefficient of determination (R2 of 0.82 and a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NS of 0.80 for the daily flow with values of p-factor (79% and r-factor (76%. The SWAT model was also used to evaluate climate change impact on hydrological regimes, the target watershed with three GCMs (General Circulation Model of the IPCC fifth report for 2030–2059 and 2070–2099, using 1980–2010 as the control period. Overall, temperature (1.39 C to 6.58 C and precipitation (31% indicated increased variability at the end of the century with increasing river flow (5%–10%; in particular, the analysis showed smaller absolute changes in the hydrology of the study area towards the end of the century. The results revealed that the calibrated model was more sensitive towards temperature and

  4. The dielectric calibration of capacitance probes for soil hydrology using an oscillation frequency response model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. A. Robinson


    Full Text Available Capacitance probes are a fast, safe and relatively inexpensive means of measuring the relative permittivity of soils, which can then be used to estimate soil water content. Initial experiments with capacitance probes used empirical calibrations between the frequency response of the instrument and soil water content. This has the disadvantage that the calibrations are instrument-dependent. A twofold calibration strategy is described in this paper; the instrument frequency is turned into relative permittivity (dielectric constant which can then be calibrated against soil water content. This approach offers the advantages of making the second calibration, from soil permittivity to soil water content. instrument-independent and allows comparison with other dielectric methods, such as time domain reflectometry. A physically based model, used to calibrate capacitance probes in terms of relative permittivity (εr is presented. The model, which was developed from circuit analysis, predicts, successfully, the frequency response of the instrument in liquids with different relative permittivities, using only measurements in air and water. lt was used successfully to calibrate 10 prototype surface capacitance insertion probes (SCIPS and a depth capacitance probe. The findings demonstrate that the geometric properties of the instrument electrodes were an important parameter in the model, the value of which could be fixed through measurement. The relationship between apparent soil permittivity and volumetric water content has been the subject of much research in the last 30 years. Two lines of investigation have developed, time domain reflectometry (TDR and capacitance. Both methods claim to measure relative permittivity and should therefore be comparable. This paper demonstrates that the IH capacitance probe overestimates relative permittivity as the ionic conductivity of the medium increases. Electrically conducting ionic solutions were used to test the

  5. Comparison of Various Optimization Methods for Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models (United States)

    Bhatt, Divya; Jain, Ashu


    Runoff forecasts are needed in many water resources activities such as flood and drought management, irrigation practices, and water distribution systems, etc. Runoff is generally forecasted using rainfall-runoff models by using hydrologic data in the catchment. Computer based hydrologic models have become popular with practicing hydrologists and water resources engineers for performing hydrologic forecasts and for managing water systems. Rainfall-runoff library (RRL) is computer software developed by Cooperative Research Centre for Catchment Hydrology (CRCCH), Australia. The RRL consists of five different conceptual rainfall-runoff models and has been in operation in many water resources applications in Australia. RRL is designed to simulate catchment runoff by using daily rainfall and evapotranspiration data. In this paper, the results from an investigation on the use of different optimization methods for the calibration of various conceptual rainfall-runoff models available in RRL toolkit are presented. Out of the five conceptual models in the RRL toolkit, AWBM (The Australian Water Balance Model) has been employed. Seven different optimization methods are investigated for the calibration of the AWBM model. The optimization methods investigated include uniform random sampling, pattern search, multi start pattern search, Rosenbrock search, Rosenbrock multi-start search, Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) and Genetic Algorithm (GA). Trial and error procedures were employed to arrive at the best values of various parameters involved in the optimizers for all to develop the AWBM. The results obtained from the best configuration of the AWBM are presented here for all optimization methods. The daily rainfall and runoff data derived from Bird Creek Basin, Oklahoma, USA have been employed to develop all the models included here. A wide range of error statistics have been used to evaluate the performance of all the models developed in this study. It has been found that

  6. Calibrating a flow model in an irrigation network: Case study in Alicante, Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Modesto Pérez-Sánchez


    Full Text Available The usefulness of models depends on their validation in a calibration process, ensuring that simulated flows and pressure values in any line are really occurring and, therefore, becoming a powerful decision tool for many aspects in the network management (i.e., selection of hydraulic machines in pumped systems, reduction of the installed power in operation, analysis of theoretical energy recovery. A new proposed method to assign consumptions patterns and to determine flows over time in irrigation networks is calibrated in the present research. As novelty, the present paper proposes a robust calibration strategy for flow assignment in lines, based on some key performance indicators (KPIF coming from traditional hydrological models: Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (non-dimensional index, root relative square error (error index and percent bias (tendency index. The proposed strategy for calibration was applied to a real case in Alicante (Spain, with a goodness of fit considered as “very good” in many indicators. KPIF parameters observed present a satisfactory goodness of fit of the series, considering their repeatability. Average Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient value oscillated between 0.30 and 0.63, average percent bias values were below 10% in all the range, and average root relative square error values varied between 0.65 and 0.80.

  7. A nonlinear model for calibration of blood glucose noninvasive measurement using near infrared spectroscopy (United States)

    Li, Qing-Bo; Li, Li-Na; Zhang, Guang-Jun


    In order to improve prediction accuracy of calibration in human blood glucose noninvasive measurement using near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy, a modified uninformative variable elimination (mUVE) method combined with kernel partial least squares (KPLS), named as mUVE-KPLS, is proposed as an alternative nonlinear modeling strategy. Under the mUVE method, high-frequency noise and matrix background can be eliminated simultaneously, which provide a optimized data for calibration in sequence; under the kernel trick, a nonlinear relationship of response variable and predictor variables is constructed, which is different with PLS that is a complex model and inappropriate to describe the underlying data structure with significant nonlinear characteristics. Two NIR spectra data of basic research experiments (simulated physiological solution samples experiment in vitro and human noninvasive measurement experiment in vivo) are introduced to evaluate the performance of the proposed method. The results indicate that, after elimination high-frequency noise and matrix background from optical absorption of water in NIR region, a high-quality spectra data is employed in calibration; and under the selection of kernel function and kernel parameter, the best prediction accuracy can be got by KPLS with Gaussian kernel compared with Spline-PLS and PLS. It is encouraging that mUVE-KPLS is a promising nonlinear calibration strategy with higher prediction accuracy for blood glucose noninvasive measurement using NIR spectroscopy.

  8. Modeling microelectrode biosensors: free-flow calibration can substantially underestimate tissue concentrations. (United States)

    Newton, Adam J H; Wall, Mark J; Richardson, Magnus J E


    Microelectrode amperometric biosensors are widely used to measure concentrations of analytes in solution and tissue including acetylcholine, adenosine, glucose, and glutamate. A great deal of experimental and modeling effort has been directed at quantifying the response of the biosensors themselves; however, the influence that the macroscopic tissue environment has on biosensor response has not been subjected to the same level of scrutiny. Here we identify an important issue in the way microelectrode biosensors are calibrated that is likely to have led to underestimations of analyte tissue concentrations. Concentration in tissue is typically determined by comparing the biosensor signal to that measured in free-flow calibration conditions. In a free-flow environment the concentration of the analyte at the outer surface of the biosensor can be considered constant. However, in tissue the analyte reaches the biosensor surface by diffusion through the extracellular space. Because the enzymes in the biosensor break down the analyte, a density gradient is set up resulting in a significantly lower concentration of analyte near the biosensor surface. This effect is compounded by the diminished volume fraction (porosity) and reduction in the diffusion coefficient due to obstructions (tortuosity) in tissue. We demonstrate this effect through modeling and experimentally verify our predictions in diffusive environments. NEW & NOTEWORTHY Microelectrode biosensors are typically calibrated in a free-flow environment where the concentrations at the biosensor surface are constant. However, when in tissue, the analyte reaches the biosensor via diffusion and so analyte breakdown by the biosensor results in a concentration gradient and consequently a lower concentration around the biosensor. This effect means that naive free-flow calibration will underestimate tissue concentration. We develop mathematical models to better quantify the discrepancy between the calibration and tissue

  9. Importance of calibration for mathematical modeling of self-purification of lotic environments

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marcio Ricardo Salla

    Full Text Available Abstract: Aim To demonstrate the importance of calibration in mathematical modeling of self-purification in lotic environments, this study simulated the behavior of various parameters in a river with average annual flows between 4.0 and 32.0 m3.s-1, in a segment downstream from the entry of treated wastewater from a sewage treatment station (average monthly flow of 2.1 m3.s-1. Methods Numerical solution by finite difference of the advection-diffusion equation was used to study the dispersion and to quantify and monitor the evolution over time of the parameters DO, BOD5, Ptotal, NH3, NO3- and the levels of the heavy metals cadmium, chromium, copper, lead and zinc. The longitudinal behavior of the water quality parameters simulated by calibrating the state variables was compared with the behavior of the same parameters simulated via state variables available in the literature. The sensitivity of the state variables was also analyzed. Results The calibration process led to good fits between the simulated and actual data for all the parameters analyzed. On the other hand, the comparison of the water quality model using calibrated state variables with the model based on state variables obtained in the literature revealed inconsistencies regarding the parameters DO, Ptotal, ammonia, nitrate and all the heavy metals. Conclusions Considering the wide threshold ranges of the state variables in the literature and the dearth of studies on calibrating the coefficient of decay and quantifying the release of heavy metals by bottom sediment, this study can serve as a base for future investigations in lotic environments with similar hydraulic and water quality characteristics.

  10. An EMG-assisted model calibration technique that does not require MVCs. (United States)

    Dufour, Jonathan S; Marras, William S; Knapik, Gregory G


    As personalized biologically-assisted models of the spine have evolved, the normalization of raw electromyographic (EMG) signals has become increasingly important. The traditional method of normalizing myoelectric signals, relative to measured maximum voluntary contractions (MVCs), is susceptible to error and is problematic for evaluating symptomatic low back pain (LBP) patients. Additionally, efforts to circumvent MVCs have not been validated during complex free-dynamic exertions. Therefore, the objective of this study was to develop an MVC-independent biologically-assisted model calibration technique that overcomes the limitations of previous normalization efforts, and to validate this technique over a variety of complex free-dynamic conditions including symmetrical and asymmetrical lifting. The newly developed technique (non-MVC) eliminates the need to collect MVCs by combining gain (maximum strength per unit area) and MVC into a single muscle property (gain ratio) that can be determined during model calibration. Ten subjects (five male, five female) were evaluated to compare gain ratio prediction variability, spinal load predictions, and model fidelity between the new non-MVC and established MVC-based model calibration techniques. The new non-MVC model calibration technique demonstrated at least as low gain ratio prediction variability, similar spinal loads, and similar model fidelity when compared to the MVC-based technique, indicating that it is a valid alternative to traditional MVC-based EMG normalization. Spinal loading for individuals who are unwilling or unable to produce reliable MVCs can now be evaluated. In particular, this technique will be valuable for evaluating symptomatic LBP patients, which may provide significant insight into the underlying nature of the LBP disorder. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Calibration of a hysteretic model for glass fiber reinforced gypsum wall panels (United States)

    Janardhana, Maganti; Robin Davis, P.; Ravichandran, S. S.; Prasad, A. M.; Menon, D.


    Glass fiber reinforced gypsum (GFRG) wall panels are prefabricated panels with hollow cores, originally developed in Australia and subsequently adopted by India and China for use in buildings. This paper discusses identification and calibration of a suitable hysteretic model for GFRG wall panels filled with reinforced concrete. As considerable pinching was observed in the experimental results, a suitable hysteretic model with pinched hysteretic rule is used to conduct a series of quasi-static as inelastic hysteretic response analyses of GFRG panels with two different widths. The calibration of the pinching model parameters was carried out to approximately match the simulated and experimental responses up to 80% of the peak load in the post peak region. Interestingly, the same values of various parameters (energy dissipation and pinching related parameters) were obtained for all five test specimens.

  12. Long-Term Agroecosystem Research in the Central Mississippi River Basin: SWAT Simulation of Flow and Water Quality in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed. (United States)

    Baffaut, Claire; John Sadler, E; Ghidey, Fessehaie; Anderson, Stephen H


    Starting in 1971, stream flow and climatologic data have been collected in the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed, which is part of the Central Mississippi River Basin (CMRB) Long-Term Agroecosystem Research (LTAR) site. Since 1992, water quality and socio-economic data have complemented these data sets. Previous modeling efforts highlighted the challenges created by the presence of a claypan. Specific changes were introduced in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (i) to better simulate percolation through and saturation above the claypan and (ii) to simulate the spatial and temporal distributions of the timing of field operations throughout the watershed. Our objectives were to document the changes introduced into the code, demonstrate that these changes improved simulation results, describe the model's parameterization, calibration, and validation, and assess atrazine [6-chloro--ethyl-'-(1-methylethyl)-1,3,5-triazine-2,4-diamine] management practices in the hydrologic context of claypan soils. Model calibration was achieved for 1993 to 2010 at a daily time step for flow and at a monthly time step for water quality constituents. The new percolation routines ensured correct balance between surface runoff and groundwater. The temporal heterogeneity of atrazine application ensured the correct frequency of daily atrazine loads. Atrazine incorporation by field cultivation resulted in a 17% simulated reduction in atrazine load without a significant increase in sediment yields. Reduced atrazine rates produced proportional reductions in simulated atrazine transport. The model can be used to estimate the impact of other drivers, e.g., changing aspects of climate, land use, cropping systems, tillage, or management practices, in this context. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  13. Calibration of a large-scale hydrological model using satellite-based soil moisture and evapotranspiration products (United States)

    López López, Patricia; Sutanudjaja, Edwin H.; Schellekens, Jaap; Sterk, Geert; Bierkens, Marc F. P.


    A considerable number of river basins around the world lack sufficient ground observations of hydro-meteorological data for effective water resources assessment and management. Several approaches can be developed to increase the quality and availability of data in these poorly gauged or ungauged river basins; among them, the use of Earth observations products has recently become promising. Earth observations of various environmental variables can be used potentially to increase knowledge about the hydrological processes in the basin and to improve streamflow model estimates, via assimilation or calibration. The present study aims to calibrate the large-scale hydrological model PCRaster GLOBal Water Balance (PCR-GLOBWB) using satellite-based products of evapotranspiration and soil moisture for the Moroccan Oum er Rbia River basin. Daily simulations at a spatial resolution of 5 × 5 arcmin are performed with varying parameters values for the 32-year period 1979-2010. Five different calibration scenarios are inter-compared: (i) reference scenario using the hydrological model with the standard parameterization, (ii) calibration using in situ-observed discharge time series, (iii) calibration using the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM) actual evapotranspiration time series, (iv) calibration using ESA Climate Change Initiative (CCI) surface soil moisture time series and (v) step-wise calibration using GLEAM actual evapotranspiration and ESA CCI surface soil moisture time series. The impact on discharge estimates of precipitation in comparison with model parameters calibration is investigated using three global precipitation products, including ERA-Interim (EI), WATCH Forcing methodology applied to ERA-Interim reanalysis data (WFDEI) and Multi-Source Weighted-Ensemble Precipitation data by merging gauge, satellite and reanalysis data (MSWEP). Results show that GLEAM evapotranspiration and ESA CCI soil moisture may be used for model calibration resulting in

  14. Some Remarks on the Calibration and Validation of Numerical Water Quality Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben


    It is a general experience that complete deterministic water quality models for aquatic systems most often show surprisingly poor agreement when it comes to comparison between model estimates and measurement in the actual system. Often this discrepancy is misunderstood as a lack of complexity and....../or an incomplete formulation of the involved varied processes. But in this introduction to a debate it is argued that the explanation usually lies in the high complexity of the models in relation to the limited data available for the calibration of model constants. Two examples are given....

  15. A truncated Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm for the calibration of highly parameterized nonlinear models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Finsterle, S.; Kowalsky, M.B.


    We propose a modification to the Levenberg-Marquardt minimization algorithm for a more robust and more efficient calibration of highly parameterized, strongly nonlinear models of multiphase flow through porous media. The new method combines the advantages of truncated singular value decomposition with those of the classical Levenberg-Marquardt algorithm, thus enabling a more robust solution of underdetermined inverse problems with complex relations between the parameters to be estimated and the observable state variables used for calibration. The truncation limit separating the solution space from the calibration null space is re-evaluated during the iterative calibration process. In between these re-evaluations, fewer forward simulations are required, compared to the standard approach, to calculate the approximate sensitivity matrix. Truncated singular values are used to calculate the Levenberg-Marquardt parameter updates, ensuring that safe small steps along the steepest-descent direction are taken for highly correlated parameters of low sensitivity, whereas efficient quasi-Gauss-Newton steps are taken for independent parameters with high impact. The performance of the proposed scheme is demonstrated for a synthetic data set representing infiltration into a partially saturated, heterogeneous soil, where hydrogeological, petrophysical, and geostatistical parameters are estimated based on the joint inversion of hydrological and geophysical data.

  16. Assessing the efficacy of the SWAT auto-irrigation function to simulate Irrigation, evapotranspiration and crop response to irrigation management strategies of the Texas High Plains (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is widely used for simulation of hydrologic processes at various temporal and spatial scales. Less common are long-term simulation analyses of water balance components including agricultural management practices such as irrigation management. In the se...

  17. Exploring calibration strategies of the SEDD model in two olive orchard catchments (United States)

    Burguet, María; Taguas, Encarnación V.; Gómez, José Alfonso


    To optimize soil conservation strategies in catchments, it is required an accurate diagnosis of the areas contributing to soil erosion by using models such as SEDD (Sediment Delivery Distributed model). In this study, different calibration strategies of the SEDD model were explored to adapt its use in two olive catchments with different environmental features and managements. A data series of rainfall-runoff-sediment load, collected in the catchments for 6 years was used: i) to evaluate calibration strategies for different management and flow conditions through the analysis of the C and R factors, and ii) to describe the temporal patterns of sediment delivery ratio (SDR) at the event and annual scales. Different results and calibration approaches were derived from contrasting soil features and sediment dynamics in the catchments. A good model performance with simple calibration procedure was obtained for the catchment with clayey soil and a very active gully, whereas the model parameterisation was adapted to event features in the catchment with sandy soil where the importance of concentrated flow was minor. Mean annual values of SDR at the watershed scale (SDRw) were 110.1% for the catchment with clayey soil and 64.1% for that with sandy soils. SDRw values greater than 100% occurred in very humid years with precipitations 30% above the mean annual values. At the event scale, similar behaviours of SDR were observed. SDR > 100% were associated with the gully exporting sediments out from the clayey catchment, whereas this was done by rills and an ephemeral gully in the sandy catchment.

  18. MOESHA: A genetic algorithm for automatic calibration and estimation of parameter uncertainty and sensitivity of hydrologic models (United States)

    Characterization of uncertainty and sensitivity of model parameters is an essential and often overlooked facet of hydrological modeling. This paper introduces an algorithm called MOESHA that combines input parameter sensitivity analyses with a genetic algorithm calibration routin...

  19. Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Wang


    Full Text Available Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped calibration protocol that used streamflow measured at one single watershed outlet to a multi-site calibration method which employed streamflow measurements at three stations within the large Chaohe River basin in northern China. Simulation results showed that the single-site calibrated model was able to sufficiently simulate the hydrographs for two of the three stations (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 0.65–0.75, and correlation coefficient 0.81–0.87 during the testing period, but the model performed poorly for the third station (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient only 0.44. Sensitivity analysis suggested that streamflow of upstream area of the watershed was dominated by slow groundwater, whilst streamflow of middle- and down- stream areas by relatively quick interflow. Therefore, a multi-site calibration protocol was deemed necessary. Due to the potential errors and uncertainties with respect to the representation of spatial variability, performance measures from the multi-site calibration protocol slightly decreased for two of the three stations, whereas it was improved greatly for the third station. We concluded that multi-site calibration protocol reached a compromise in term of model performance for the three stations, reasonably representing the hydrographs of all three stations with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranging from 0.59–072. The multi-site calibration protocol applied in the analysis generally has advantages to the single site calibration protocol.

  20. Ultrasound data for laboratory calibration of an analytical model to calculate crack depth on asphalt pavements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miguel A. Franesqui


    Full Text Available This article outlines the ultrasound data employed to calibrate in the laboratory an analytical model that permits the calculation of the depth of partial-depth surface-initiated cracks on bituminous pavements using this non-destructive technique. This initial calibration is required so that the model provides sufficient precision during practical application. The ultrasonic pulse transit times were measured on beam samples of different asphalt mixtures (semi-dense asphalt concrete AC-S; asphalt concrete for very thin layers BBTM; and porous asphalt PA. The cracks on the laboratory samples were simulated by means of notches of variable depths. With the data of ultrasound transmission time ratios, curve-fittings were carried out on the analytical model, thus determining the regression parameters and their statistical dispersion. The calibrated models obtained from laboratory datasets were subsequently applied to auscultate the evolution of the crack depth after microwaves exposure in the research article entitled “Top-down cracking self-healing of asphalt pavements with steel filler from industrial waste applying microwaves” (Franesqui et al., 2017 [1].

  1. Hydrologic Modeling in the Kenai River Watershed using Event Based Calibration (United States)

    Wells, B.; Toniolo, H. A.; Stuefer, S. L.


    Understanding hydrologic changes is key for preparing for possible future scenarios. On the Kenai Peninsula in Alaska the yearly salmon runs provide a valuable stimulus to the economy. It is the focus of a large commercial fishing fleet, but also a prime tourist attraction. Modeling of anadromous waters provides a tool that assists in the prediction of future salmon run size. Beaver Creek, in Kenai, Alaska, is a lowlands stream that has been modeled using the Army Corps of Engineers event based modeling package HEC-HMS. With the use of historic precipitation and discharge data, the model was calibrated to observed discharge values. The hydrologic parameters were measured in the field or calculated, while soil parameters were estimated and adjusted during the calibration. With the calibrated parameter for HEC-HMS, discharge estimates can be used by other researches studying the area and help guide communities and officials to make better-educated decisions regarding the changing hydrology in the area and the tied economic drivers.

  2. Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology (United States)

    Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael


    Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology. DOI: PMID:26473972

  3. Calibration plots for risk prediction models in the presence of competing risks. (United States)

    Gerds, Thomas A; Andersen, Per K; Kattan, Michael W


    A predicted risk of 17% can be called reliable if it can be expected that the event will occur to about 17 of 100 patients who all received a predicted risk of 17%. Statistical models can predict the absolute risk of an event such as cardiovascular death in the presence of competing risks such as death due to other causes. For personalized medicine and patient counseling, it is necessary to check that the model is calibrated in the sense that it provides reliable predictions for all subjects. There are three often encountered practical problems when the aim is to display or test if a risk prediction model is well calibrated. The first is lack of independent validation data, the second is right censoring, and the third is that when the risk scale is continuous, the estimation problem is as difficult as density estimation. To deal with these problems, we propose to estimate calibration curves for competing risks models based on jackknife pseudo-values that are combined with a nearest neighborhood smoother and a cross-validation approach to deal with all three problems. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Calibration of Numerical Model for Shoreline Change Prediction Using Satellite Imagery Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sigit Sutikno


    Full Text Available This paper presents a method for calibration of numerical model for shoreline change prediction using satellite imagery data in muddy beach. Tanjung Motong beach, a muddy beach that is suffered high abrasion in Rangsang Island, Riau province, Indonesia was picked as study area. The primary numerical modeling tool used in this research was GENESIS (GENEralized Model for Simulating Shoreline change, which has been successfully applied in many case studies of shoreline change phenomena on a sandy beach.The model was calibrated using two extracted coastlines satellite imagery data, such as Landsat-5 TM and Landsat-8 OLI/TIRS. The extracted coastline data were analyzed by using DSAS (Digital Shoreline Analysis System tool to get the rate of shoreline change from 1990 to 2014. The main purpose of the calibration process was to find out the appropriate value for K 1 and K coefficients so that the predicted shoreline change had an acceptable correlation with the output of the satellite data processing. The result of this research showed that the shoreline change prediction had a good correlation with the historical evidence data in Tanjung Motong coast. It means that the GENESIS tool is not only applicable for shoreline prediction in sandy beach but also in muddy beach.

  5. Ultrasound data for laboratory calibration of an analytical model to calculate crack depth on asphalt pavements. (United States)

    Franesqui, Miguel A; Yepes, Jorge; García-González, Cándida


    This article outlines the ultrasound data employed to calibrate in the laboratory an analytical model that permits the calculation of the depth of partial-depth surface-initiated cracks on bituminous pavements using this non-destructive technique. This initial calibration is required so that the model provides sufficient precision during practical application. The ultrasonic pulse transit times were measured on beam samples of different asphalt mixtures (semi-dense asphalt concrete AC-S; asphalt concrete for very thin layers BBTM; and porous asphalt PA). The cracks on the laboratory samples were simulated by means of notches of variable depths. With the data of ultrasound transmission time ratios, curve-fittings were carried out on the analytical model, thus determining the regression parameters and their statistical dispersion. The calibrated models obtained from laboratory datasets were subsequently applied to auscultate the evolution of the crack depth after microwaves exposure in the research article entitled "Top-down cracking self-healing of asphalt pavements with steel filler from industrial waste applying microwaves" (Franesqui et al., 2017) [1].

  6. Calibration of the computer model describing flows in the water supply system; example of the application of a genetic algorithm (United States)

    Orłowska-Szostak, Maria; Orłowski, Ryszard


    The paper discusses some relevant aspects of the calibration of a computer model describing flows in the water supply system. The authors described an exemplary water supply system and used it as a practical illustration of calibration. A range of measures was discussed and applied, which improve the convergence and effective use of calculations in the calibration process and also the effect of such calibration which is the validity of the results obtained. Drawing up results of performed measurements, i.e. estimating pipe roughnesses, the authors performed using the genetic algorithm implementation of which is a software developed by Resan Labs company from Brazil.

  7. Application of Dimensional Analysis in Calibration of a Discrete Element Model for Rock Deformation and Fracture (United States)

    Fakhimi, A.; Villegas, T.


    A discrete element approach was used in the simulation of rock fracture. The numerical synthetic material was made of rigid circular particles or cylinders that have interaction through normal and shear springs. The cylinders were bonded to each other at the contact points to withstand the applied loads. To characterize the microscopic properties of this synthetic material, a dimensional analysis approach was presented. It was shown that the dimensionless parameters and graphs obtained were useful tools for fast and efficient calibration of a synthetic material. This calibration method was employed for finding a numerical model for Pennsylvania Blue Sandstone. The numerical model could mimic many deformational and failure characteristics of the sandstone in both conventional and some non-conventional stress paths.

  8. Predictive error dependencies when using pilot points and singular value decomposition in groundwater model calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Steen; Doherty, John


    super parameters), and that the structural errors caused by using pilot points and super parameters to parameterize the highly heterogeneous log-transmissivity field can be significant. For the test case much effort is put into studying how the calibrated model's ability to make accurate predictions...... depends on parameterization specifications. It is shown that there exists no unique parameterization specification that produces the smallest possible prediction error variance for all eight studied predictions simultaneously. However, a reasonable compromise of parameterization can be made. It is further...... shown that it is possible to choose parameterization specifications that result in error variances for some predictions that are greater than those that would be encountered if the model had not been calibrated at all. Test case predictions that have this "problem" are all dependent on the field...

  9. Modeling and de-embedding the interferometric scanning microwave microscopy by means of dopant profile calibration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Michalas, L., E-mail:; Marcelli, R. [National Research Council, Institute for Microelectronics and Microsystems (CNR-IMM), Via del Fosso del Cavaliere 100, 00133 Rome (Italy); Wang, F.; Brillard, C.; Theron, D. [Institut d' Electronique, de Microélectronique et de Nanotechnologie, CNRS UMR 8520/University of Lille 1, Avenue Poincaré, CS 60069, 59652 Villeneuve d' Ascq (France); Chevalier, N.; Hartmann, J. M. [Univ. Grenoble Alpes, F-38000 Grenoble, France and CEA, LETI, MINATEC Campus, F-38054 Grenoble (France)


    This paper presents the full modeling and a methodology for de-embedding the interferometric scanning microwave microscopy measurements by means of dopant profile calibration. A Si calibration sample with different boron-doping level areas is used to that end. The analysis of the experimentally obtained S{sub 11} amplitudes based on the proposed model confirms the validity of the methodology. As a specific finding, changes in the tip radius between new and used tips have been clearly identified, leading to values for the effective tip radius in the range of 45 nm to 85 nm, respectively. Experimental results are also discussed in terms of the effective area concept, taking into consideration details related to the nature of tip-to-sample interaction.

  10. A self-calibrating robot based upon a virtual machine model of parallel kinematics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, David Bue; Eiríksson, Eyþór Rúnar; Hansen, Hans Nørgaard


    A delta-type parallel kinematics system for Additive Manufacturing has been created, which through a probing system can recognise its geometrical deviations from nominal and compensate for these in the driving inverse kinematic model of the machine. Novelty is that this model is derived from...... a virtual machine of the kinematics system, built on principles from geometrical metrology. Relevant mathematically non-trivial deviations to the ideal machine are identified and decomposed into elemental deviations. From these deviations, a routine is added to a physical machine tool, which allows...... it to recognise its own geometry by probing the vertical offset from tool point to the machine table, at positions in the horizontal plane. After automatic calibration the positioning error of the machine tool was reduced from an initial error after its assembly of ±170 µm to a calibrated error of ±3 µm...

  11. Transient Inverse Calibration of Hanford Site-Wide Groundwater Model to Hanford Operational Impacts - 1943 to 1996

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cole, Charles R.; Bergeron, Marcel P.; Wurstner, Signe K.; Thorne, Paul D.; Orr, Samuel; Mckinley, Mathew I.


    This report describes a new initiative to strengthen the technical defensibility of predictions made with the Hanford site-wide groundwater flow and transport model. The focus is on characterizing major uncertainties in the current model. PNNL will develop and implement a calibration approach and methodology that can be used to evaluate alternative conceptual models of the Hanford aquifer system. The calibration process will involve a three-dimensional transient inverse calibration of each numerical model to historical observations of hydraulic and water quality impacts to the unconfined aquifer system from Hanford operations since the mid-1940s.

  12. Elasto-geometrical modeling and calibration of robot manipulators: Application to machining and forming applications


    Marie, Stéphane; Courteille, Eric; Maurine, Patrick


    International audience; This paper proposes an original elasto-geometrical calibration method to improve the static pose accuracy of industrial robots involved in machining, forming or assembly applications. Two approaches are presented respectively based on an analytical parametric modeling and a Takagi-Sugeno fuzzy inference system. These are described and then discussed. This allows to list the main drawbacks and advantages of each of them with respect to the task and the user requirements...

  13. (Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level Changes (United States)

    Ruckert, K. L.; Guan, Y.; Shaffer, G.; Forest, C. E.; Keller, K.


    (Pre-) calibration of a Reduced Complexity Model of the Antarctic Contribution to Sea-level ChangesKelsey L. Ruckert1*, Yawen Guan2, Chris E. Forest1,3,7, Gary Shaffer 4,5,6, and Klaus Keller1,7,81 Department of Geosciences, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 2 Department of Statistics, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 3 Department of Meteorology, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 4 GAIA_Antarctica, University of Magallanes, Punta Arenas, Chile 5 Center for Advanced Studies in Arid Zones, La Serena, Chile 6 Niels Bohr Institute, University of Copenhagen, Copenhagen, Denmark 7 Earth and Environmental Systems Institute, The Pennsylvania State University, University Park, Pennsylvania, USA 8 Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, USA * Corresponding author. E-mail klr324@psu.eduUnderstanding and projecting future sea-level changes poses nontrivial challenges. Sea-level changes are driven primarily by changes in the density of seawater as well as changes in the size of glaciers and ice sheets. Previous studies have demonstrated that a key source of uncertainties surrounding sea-level projections is the response of the Antarctic ice sheet to warming temperatures. Here we calibrate a previously published and relatively simple model of the Antarctic ice sheet over a hindcast period from the last interglacial period to the present. We apply and compare a range of (pre-) calibration methods, including a Bayesian approach that accounts for heteroskedasticity. We compare the model hindcasts and projections for different levels of model complexity and calibration methods. We compare the projections with the upper bounds from previous studies and find our projections have a narrower range in 2100. Furthermore we discuss the implications for the design of climate risk management strategies.

  14. The adaptive calibration model of stress responsivity : An empirical test in the Tracking Adolescents' Individual Lives Survey study

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ellis, Bruce J; Oldehinkel, Albertine J; Nederhof, Esther


    The adaptive calibration model (ACM) is a theory of developmental programing focusing on calibration of stress response systems and associated life history strategies to local environmental conditions. In this article, we tested some key predictions of the ACM in a longitudinal study of Dutch

  15. Dimensional reductions of a cardiac model for effective validation and calibration. (United States)

    Caruel, M; Chabiniok, R; Moireau, P; Lecarpentier, Y; Chapelle, D


    Complex 3D beating heart models are now available, but their complexity makes calibration and validation very difficult tasks. We thus propose a systematic approach of deriving simplified reduced-dimensional models, in "0D"-typically, to represent a cardiac cavity, or several coupled cavities-and in "1D"-to model elongated structures such as muscle samples or myocytes. We apply this approach with an earlier-proposed 3D cardiac model designed to capture length-dependence effects in contraction, which we here complement by an additional modeling component devised to represent length-dependent relaxation. We then present experimental data produced with rat papillary muscle samples when varying preload and afterload conditions, and we achieve some detailed validations of the 1D model with these data, including for the length-dependence effects that are accurately captured. Finally, when running simulations of the 0D model pre-calibrated with the 1D model parameters, we obtain pressure-volume indicators of the left ventricle in good agreement with some important features of cardiac physiology, including the so-called Frank-Starling mechanism, the End-Systolic Pressure-Volume Relationship, as well as varying elastance properties. This integrated multi-dimensional modeling approach thus sheds new light on the relations between the phenomena observed at different scales and at the local versus organ levels.

  16. Calibration and statistical analysis of a simplified model for the anaerobic digestion of solid waste. (United States)

    Daels, Tine; Willems, Bernard; Vervaeren, Han; Dejans, Pascal; Maes, Guy; Dumoulin, Ann; Van Hulle, Stijn W H


    Modelling is increasingly used for optimizing environmental treatment processes such as anaerobic digestion. It allows problems such as instability of the process to be solved by predicting various scenarios. The anaerobic digestion model No. 1 (ADM1) is accepted worldwide as the standard model for the description of anaerobic digestion. However, it is sophisticated and complex, so it is not user friendly. Therefore, a mathematical method was developed that allows the calculation of the reactor pH, as well as the biogas flow rate (Q) and composition (expressed as the CO2 partial pressure, pCO2), based on a small number of widely available analyses such as chemical oxygen demand and total organic carbon. Furthermore, the ADM1 model was originally designed for anaerobic digestion of wastewater. In this work, the ADM1 model is evaluated for the first time for application in the modelling of solid waste digestion. This evaluation was performed in two steps. First, a list of experimentally available lab-scale data (pH and Q) was grouped according to the composition and origin of the treated solid waste (e.g. manure or vegetable waste). For each group the developed model for the calculation of pH, Q and pCO2 was calibrated with this lab-scale data. After calibration, the model was validated with additional experimental results. It could be demonstrated statistically that the model was able to predict the experimental results, although the confidence region was rather large.

  17. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Soltanzadeh


    Full Text Available Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM, with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009 over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

  18. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA) to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soltanzadeh, I. [Tehran Univ. (Iran, Islamic Republic of). Inst. of Geophysics; Azadi, M.; Vakili, G.A. [Atmospheric Science and Meteorological Research Center (ASMERC), Teheran (Iran, Islamic Republic of)


    Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA), an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM), with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME) of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009) over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data. The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast. (orig.)

  19. Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA to calibrate probabilistic surface temperature forecasts over Iran

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. Soltanzadeh


    Full Text Available Using Bayesian Model Averaging (BMA, an attempt was made to obtain calibrated probabilistic numerical forecasts of 2-m temperature over Iran. The ensemble employs three limited area models (WRF, MM5 and HRM, with WRF used with five different configurations. Initial and boundary conditions for MM5 and WRF are obtained from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS and for HRM the initial and boundary conditions come from analysis of Global Model Europe (GME of the German Weather Service. The resulting ensemble of seven members was run for a period of 6 months (from December 2008 to May 2009 over Iran. The 48-h raw ensemble outputs were calibrated using BMA technique for 120 days using a 40 days training sample of forecasts and relative verification data.

    The calibrated probabilistic forecasts were assessed using rank histogram and attribute diagrams. Results showed that application of BMA improved the reliability of the raw ensemble. Using the weighted ensemble mean forecast as a deterministic forecast it was found that the deterministic-style BMA forecasts performed usually better than the best member's deterministic forecast.

  20. Automatic calibration of urban drainage model using a novel multi-objective genetic algorithm. (United States)

    di Pierro, F; Djordjević, S; Kapelan, Z; Khu, S T; Savić, D; Walters, G A


    In order to successfully calibrate an urban drainage model, multiple calibration criteria should be considered. This raises the issue of adopting a method for comparing different solutions (parameter sets) according to a set of objectives. Amongst the global optimization techniques that have blossomed in recent years, Multi Objective Genetic Algorithms (MOGA) have proved effective in numerous engineering applications, including sewer network modelling. Most of the techniques rely on the condition of Pareto efficiency to compare different solutions. However, as the number of criteria increases, the ratio of Pareto optimal to feasible solutions increases as well. The pitfalls are twofold: the efficiency of the genetic algorithm search worsens and decision makers are presented with an overwhelming number of equally optimal solutions. This paper proposes a new MOGA, the Preference Ordering Genetic Algorithm, which alleviates the drawbacks of conventional Pareto-based methods. The efficacy of the algorithm is demonstrated on the calibration of a physically-based, distributed sewer network model and the results are compared with those obtained by NSGA-II, a widely used MOGA.

  1. Influence of physical factors on the accuracy of calibration models for NIR spectroscopy. (United States)

    Blanco, Marcelo; Peguero, Anna


    The quality of pharmaceutical drugs is strongly influenced by a number of physical and chemical factors that require careful control during the production process in order to ensure that the end-product will meet the specifications. Near infrared spectroscopy has proved effective for monitoring changes in such factors and is currently the most widely used technique for controlling drug manufacturing processes. In this work, the authors determined an active pharmaceutical ingredient (API) throughout its production process. The influence of particle size, galenic form, compaction pressure and coating thickness on NIR spectra was evaluated with a view to developing effective methodologies for constructing simple, accurate calibration methods affording API quantization at different stages of a drug production process. All calibration models were constructed from data for laboratory samples alone and NIR calibration models for determining the API determination by using product weights as reference values. The proposed models were validated by application to samples obtained at three stages of a drug manufacturing process and comparison of the predicted values with HPLC reference values. The RSEP values thus obtained never exceeded 1.5%. Copyright 2010 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Caliver: An R package for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. (United States)

    Vitolo, Claudia; Di Giuseppe, Francesca; D'Andrea, Mirko


    The name caliver stands for CALIbration and VERification of forest fire gridded model outputs. This is a package developed for the R programming language and available under an APACHE-2 license from a public repository. In this paper we describe the functionalities of the package and give examples using publicly available datasets. Fire danger model outputs are taken from the modeling components of the European Forest Fire Information System (EFFIS) and observed burned areas from the Global Fire Emission Database (GFED). Complete documentation, including a vignette, is also available within the package.

  3. Calibration of the Multi-Factor HJM Model for Energy Market (United States)

    Broszkiewicz-Suwaj, E.; Weron, A.


    The purpose of this paper is to show that using the toolkit of interest rate theory, already well known in financial engineering as the HJM model [D. Heath, R. Jarrow, A. Morton, {ITALIC Econometrica} 60, 77 (1992)], it is possible to derive explicite option pricing formula and calibrate the theoretical model to the empirical electricity market. The analysis is illustrated by numerical cases from the European Energy Exchange (EEX) in Leipzig. The multi-factor {ITALIC versus} one-factor HJM models are compared.

  4. The Joint Calibration Model in probabilistic weather forecasting: some preliminary issues

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Agati


    Full Text Available Ensemble Prediction Systems play today a fundamental role in weather forecasting. They can represent and measure uncertainty, thereby allowing distributional forecasting as well as deterministic-style forecasts. In this context, we show how the Joint Calibration Model (Agati et al., 2007 – based on a modelization of the Probability Integral Transform distribution – can provide a solution to the problem of information combining in probabilistic forecasting of continuous variables. A case study is presented, where the potentialities of the method are explored and the accuracy of deterministic-style forecasts from JCM is compared with that from Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery et al., 2005.

  5. Calibration of the Nonlinear Accelerator Model at the Diamond Storage Ring

    CERN Document Server

    Bartolini, Riccardo; Rowland, James; Martin, Ian; Schmidt, Frank


    The correct implementation of the nonlinear ring model is crucial to achieve the top performance of a synchrotron light source. Several dynamics quantities can be used to compare the real machine with the model and eventually to correct the accelerator. Most of these methods are based on the analysis of turn-by-turn data of excited betatron oscillations. We present the experimental results of the campaign of measurements carried out at the Diamond. A combination of Frequency Map Analysis (FMA) and detuning with momentum measurements has allowed a precise calibration of the nonlinear model capable of reproducing the nonlinear beam dynamics in the storage ring

  6. Calibration and Groundwater Management Scenario Analysis with the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model (United States)

    Tolley, D. G.; Foglia, L.; Neumann, J.; Harter, T.


    Late summer streamflow for the Scott River in northern California has decreased approximately 50% since the mid 1960's, resulting in increased water temperatures and disconnection of certain portions of the stream which negatively impacts aquatic habitat of fish species such as coho and fall-run Chinook salmon. In collaboration with local stakeholders, the Scott Valley Integrated Hydrologic Model has been developed, which combines a water budget model and a groundwater-surface water model (MODLFOW) of the 200 km2 basin. The goal of the integrated model is to better understand the hydrologic system of the valley and explore effects of different groundwater management scenarios on late summer streamflow. The groundwater model has a quarter-hectare resolution with aggregated monthly stress periods over a 21 year period (1990-2011). The Scott River is represented using either the river (RIV) or streamflow routing (SFR) package. UCODE was used for sensitivity analysis and calibration using head observations for 52 wells in the basin and gain/loss observations for two sections of the river. Of 32 model parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, riverbed conductance and mountain recharge), 13 were found significantly sensitive to observations. Results from the calibration show excellent agreement between modeled and observed heads and to seasonal and interannual variations in streamflow. The calibrated model was used to evaluate several management scenarios: 1) alternative water budget which takes into account measured irrigation rates in the valley, 2) in-lieu recharge where surface-water instead of groundwater is used to irrigate fields near the river while streamflow is sufficiently high, and 3) managed recharge on agricultural fields in gulches on the eastern side of the valley in the winter months. Preliminary results indicate that alternative water management scenarios (in-lieu and managed recharge) significantly increase late summer streamflow by keeping

  7. Monte Carlo modeling provides accurate calibration factors for radionuclide activity meters. (United States)

    Zagni, F; Cicoria, G; Lucconi, G; Infantino, A; Lodi, F; Marengo, M


    Accurate determination of calibration factors for radionuclide activity meters is crucial for quantitative studies and in the optimization step of radiation protection, as these detectors are widespread in radiopharmacy and nuclear medicine facilities. In this work we developed the Monte Carlo model of a widely used activity meter, using the Geant4 simulation toolkit. More precisely the "PENELOPE" EM physics models were employed. The model was validated by means of several certified sources, traceable to primary activity standards, and other sources locally standardized with spectrometry measurements, plus other experimental tests. Great care was taken in order to accurately reproduce the geometrical details of the gas chamber and the activity sources, each of which is different in shape and enclosed in a unique container. Both relative calibration factors and ionization current obtained with simulations were compared against experimental measurements; further tests were carried out, such as the comparison of the relative response of the chamber for a source placed at different positions. The results showed a satisfactory level of accuracy in the energy range of interest, with the discrepancies lower than 4% for all the tested parameters. This shows that an accurate Monte Carlo modeling of this type of detector is feasible using the low-energy physics models embedded in Geant4. The obtained Monte Carlo model establishes a powerful tool for first instance determination of new calibration factors for non-standard radionuclides, for custom containers, when a reference source is not available. Moreover, the model provides an experimental setup for further research and optimization with regards to materials and geometrical details of the measuring setup, such as the ionization chamber itself or the containers configuration. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Fiction and reality in the modelling world - Balance between simplicity and complexity, calibration and identifiability, verification and falsification

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Harremoës, P.; Madsen, H.


    Where is the balance between simplicity and complexity in model prediction of urban drainage structures? The calibration/verification approach to testing of model performance gives an exaggerated sense of certainty. Frequently, the model structure and the parameters are not identifiable by calibr...... and to incorporate that in the design, operation and control of urban drainage structures. (C) 1999 IAWQ Published by Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  9. Fish-eye Camera Calibration Model Based on Vector Observations and Its Application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ZHAN Yinhu


    Full Text Available A fish-eye camera calibration model is presented, basic observations of which consist of both half angle of view and azimuth. Rodrigues matrix is introduced into the model, and three Rodrigues parameters instead of Euler angles are used to represent elements of exterior orientation in order to simplify the expressions and calculations of observation equations.The new model is compared with the existing models based on half angle of view constraint by actual star-map data processing, and the results indicate that the model is superior to control the azimuth error, while slightly inferior to constrain the error of half angle of view. It is advised that radial distortion parameters should be determined by the model based on half angle of view constraint at first, and other camera parameters should be calculated by the new model.

  10. Validation and calibration of a computer simulation model of pediatric HIV infection.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea L Ciaranello

    Full Text Available Computer simulation models can project long-term patient outcomes and inform health policy. We internally validated and then calibrated a model of HIV disease in children before initiation of antiretroviral therapy to provide a framework against which to compare the impact of pediatric HIV treatment strategies.We developed a patient-level (Monte Carlo model of HIV progression among untreated children 1,300 untreated, HIV-infected African children.In internal validation analyses, model-generated survival curves fit IeDEA data well; modeled and observed survival at 16 months of age were 91.2% and 91.1%, respectively. RMSE varied widely with variations in CD4% parameters; the best fitting parameter set (RMSE = 0.00423 resulted when CD4% was 45% at birth and declined by 6%/month (ages 0-3 months and 0.3%/month (ages >3 months. In calibration analyses, increases in IeDEA-derived mortality risks were necessary to fit UNAIDS survival data.The CEPAC-Pediatric model performed well in internal validation analyses. Increases in modeled mortality risks required to match UNAIDS data highlight the importance of pre-enrollment mortality in many pediatric cohort studies.

  11. High-precision method of binocular camera calibration with a distortion model. (United States)

    Li, Weimin; Shan, Siyu; Liu, Hui


    A high-precision camera calibration method for binocular stereo vision system based on a multi-view template and alternative bundle adjustment is presented in this paper. The proposed method could be achieved by taking several photos on a specially designed calibration template that has diverse encoded points in different orientations. In this paper, the method utilized the existing algorithm used for monocular camera calibration to obtain the initialization, which involves a camera model, including radial lens distortion and tangential distortion. We created a reference coordinate system based on the left camera coordinate to optimize the intrinsic parameters of left camera through alternative bundle adjustment to obtain optimal values. Then, optimal intrinsic parameters of the right camera can be obtained through alternative bundle adjustment when we create a reference coordinate system based on the right camera coordinate. We also used all intrinsic parameters that were acquired to optimize extrinsic parameters. Thus, the optimal lens distortion parameters and intrinsic and extrinsic parameters were obtained. Synthetic and real data were used to test the method. The simulation results demonstrate that the maximum mean absolute relative calibration errors are about 3.5e-6 and 1.2e-6 for the focal length and the principal point, respectively, under zero-mean Gaussian noise with 0.05 pixels standard deviation. The real result shows that the reprojection error of our model is about 0.045 pixels with the relative standard deviation of 1.0e-6 over the intrinsic parameters. The proposed method is convenient, cost-efficient, highly precise, and simple to carry out.

  12. Sensitivity analysis and development of calibration methodology for near-surface hydrogeology model of Laxemar

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aneljung, Maria; Sassner, Mona; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran (DHI Sverige AB, Lilla Bommen 1, SE-411 04 Goeteborg (Sweden))


    This report describes modelling where the hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE has been used to describe surface hydrology, near-surface hydrogeology, advective transport mechanisms, and the contact between groundwater and surface water within the SKB site investigation area at Laxemar. In the MIKE SHE system, surface water flow is described with the one-dimensional modelling tool MIKE 11, which is fully and dynamically integrated with the groundwater flow module in MIKE SHE. In early 2008, a supplementary data set will be available and a process of updating, rebuilding and calibrating the MIKE SHE model based on this data set will start. Before the calibration on the new data begins, it is important to gather as much knowledge as possible on calibration methods, and to identify critical calibration parameters and areas within the model that require special attention. In this project, the MIKE SHE model has been further developed. The model area has been extended, and the present model also includes an updated bedrock model and a more detailed description of the surface stream network. The numerical model has been updated and optimized, especially regarding the modelling of evapotranspiration and the unsaturated zone, and the coupling between the surface stream network in MIKE 11 and the overland flow in MIKE SHE. An initial calibration has been made and a base case has been defined and evaluated. In connection with the calibration, the most important changes made in the model were the following: The evapotranspiration was reduced. The infiltration capacity was reduced. The hydraulic conductivities of the Quaternary deposits in the water-saturated part of the subsurface were reduced. Data from one surface water level monitoring station, four surface water discharge monitoring stations and 43 groundwater level monitoring stations (SSM series boreholes) have been used to evaluate and calibrate the model. The base case simulations showed a reasonable agreement

  13. Definition and sensitivity of the conceptual MORDOR rainfall-runoff model parameters using different multi-criteria calibration strategies (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Seyve, E.; Gottardi, F.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.


    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. MORDOR is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 20 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In the matter of parameters calibration we propose and test alternative multi-criteria techniques based on two specific approaches: automatic calibration using single-objective functions and a priori parameter calibration founded on hydrological watershed features. The automatic calibration approach uses single-objective functions, based on Kling-Gupta efficiency, to quantify the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time-series sample, (I) annual hydrological regime, (iii) monthly cumulative distribution functions and (iv) recession sequences.The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the definition and sensitivity of MORDOR parameters testing different calibration techniques in order to: (i) simplify the model structure, (ii) increase the calibration-validation performance of the model and (iii) reduce the equifinality problem of calibration process. We propose an alternative calibration strategy that reaches these goals. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating MORDOR model to daily data for 50 watersheds located in French mountainous regions.

  14. The Benefit of Multi-Mission Altimetry Series for the Calibration of Hydraulic Models (United States)

    Domeneghetti, Alessio; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Tourian, Mohammad J.; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso; Castellarin, Attilio; Sneeuw, Nico


    The growing availability of satellite altimetric time series during last decades has fostered their use in many hydrological and hydraulic applications. However, the use of remotely sensed water level series still remains hampered by the limited temporal resolution that characterizes each sensor (i.e. revisit time varying from 10 to 35 days), as well as by the accuracy of different instrumentation adopted for monitoring inland water. As a consequence, each sensor is characterized by distinctive potentials and limitations that constrain its use for hydrological applications. In this study we refer to a stretch of about 140 km of the Po River (the longest Italian river) in order to investigate the performance of different altimetry series for the calibration of a quasi-2d model built with detailed topographic information. The usefulness of remotely sensed water surface elevation is tested using data collected by different altimetry missions (i.e., ERS-2, ENVISAT, TOPEX/Poseidon, JASON-2 and SARAL/Altika) by investigating the effect of (i) record length (i.e. number of satellite measurements provided by a given sensor at a specific satellite track) and (ii) data uncertainty (i.e. altimetry measurements errors). Since the relatively poor time resolution of satellites constrains the operational use of altimetric time series, in this study we also investigate the use of multi-mission altimetry series obtained by merging datasets sensed by different sensors over the study area. Benefits of the highest temporal frequency of multi-mission series are tested by calibrating the quasi-2d model referring in turn to original satellite series and multi-mission datasets. Jason-2 and ENVISAT outperform other sensors, ensuring the reliability on the calibration process for shorter time series. The multi-mission dataset appears particularly reliable and suitable for the calibration of hydraulic model. If short time periods are considered, the performance of the multi-mission dataset

  15. New Multi-objective Uncertainty-based Algorithm for Water Resource Models' Calibration (United States)

    Keshavarz, Kasra; Alizadeh, Hossein


    Water resource models are powerful tools to support water management decision making process and are developed to deal with a broad range of issues including land use and climate change impacts analysis, water allocation, systems design and operation, waste load control and allocation, etc. These models are divided into two categories of simulation and optimization models whose calibration has been addressed in the literature where great relevant efforts in recent decades have led to two main categories of auto-calibration methods of uncertainty-based algorithms such as GLUE, MCMC and PEST and optimization-based algorithms including single-objective optimization such as SCE-UA and multi-objective optimization such as MOCOM-UA and MOSCEM-UA. Although algorithms which benefit from capabilities of both types, such as SUFI-2, were rather developed, this paper proposes a new auto-calibration algorithm which is capable of both finding optimal parameters values regarding multiple objectives like optimization-based algorithms and providing interval estimations of parameters like uncertainty-based algorithms. The algorithm is actually developed to improve quality of SUFI-2 results. Based on a single-objective, e.g. NSE and RMSE, SUFI-2 proposes a routine to find the best point and interval estimation of parameters and corresponding prediction intervals (95 PPU) of time series of interest. To assess the goodness of calibration, final results are presented using two uncertainty measures of p-factor quantifying percentage of observations covered by 95PPU and r-factor quantifying degree of uncertainty, and the analyst has to select the point and interval estimation of parameters which are actually non-dominated regarding both of the uncertainty measures. Based on the described properties of SUFI-2, two important questions are raised, answering of which are our research motivation: Given that in SUFI-2, final selection is based on the two measures or objectives and on the other

  16. Modeling transducer impulse responses for predicting calibrated pressure pulses with the ultrasound simulation program Field II

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Willatzen, Morten


    FIELD II is a simulation software capable of predicting the field pressure in front of transducers having any complicated geometry. A calibrated prediction with this program is, however, dependent on an exact voltage-to-surface acceleration impulse response of the transducer. Such impulse response...... is not calculated by FIELD II. This work investigates the usability of combining a one-dimensional multilayer transducer modeling principle with the FIELD II software. Multilayer here refers to a transducer composed of several material layers. Measurements of pressure and current from Pz27 piezoceramic disks...... transducer model and the FIELD II software in combination give good agreement with measurements....

  17. Calibration of infiltration parameters on hydrological tank model using runoff coefficient of rational method (United States)

    Suryoputro, Nugroho; Suhardjono, Soetopo, Widandi; Suhartanto, Ery


    In calibrating hydrological models, there are generally two stages of activity: 1) determining realistic model initial parameters in representing natural component physical processes, 2) entering initial parameter values which are then processed by trial error or automatically to obtain optimal values. To determine a realistic initial value, it takes experience and user knowledge of the model. This is a problem for beginner model users. This paper will present another approach to estimate the infiltration parameters in the tank model. The parameters will be approximated by the runoff coefficient of rational method. The value approach of infiltration parameter is simply described as the result of the difference in the percentage of total rainfall minus the percentage of runoff. It is expected that the results of this research will accelerate the calibration process of tank model parameters. The research was conducted on the sub-watershed Kali Bango in Malang Regency with an area of 239,71 km2. Infiltration measurements were carried out in January 2017 to March 2017. Analysis of soil samples at Soil Physics Laboratory, Department of Soil Science, Faculty of Agriculture, Universitas Brawijaya. Rainfall and discharge data were obtained from UPT PSAWS Bango Gedangan in Malang. Temperature, evaporation, relative humidity, wind speed data was obtained from BMKG station of Karang Ploso, Malang. The results showed that the infiltration coefficient at the top tank outlet can be determined its initial value by using the approach of the coefficient of runoff rational method with good result.

  18. Calibrating and validating a FE model for long-term behavior of RC beams

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tošić Nikola D.


    Full Text Available This study presents the research carried out in finding an optimal finite element (FE model for calculating the long-term behavior of reinforced concrete (RC beams. A multi-purpose finite element software DIANA was used. A benchmark test in the form of a simply supported beam loaded in four point bending was selected for model calibration. The result was the choice of 3-node beam elements, a multi-directional fixed crack model with constant stress cut-off, nonlinear tension softening and constant shear retention and a creep and shrinkage model according to CEB-FIP Model Code 1990. The model was then validated on 14 simply supported beams and 6 continuous beams. Good agreement was found with experimental results (within ±15%.

  19. Linear model correction: A method for transferring a near-infrared multivariate calibration model without standard samples. (United States)

    Liu, Yan; Cai, Wensheng; Shao, Xueguang


    Calibration transfer is essential for practical applications of near infrared (NIR) spectroscopy because the measurements of the spectra may be performed on different instruments and the difference between the instruments must be corrected. For most of calibration transfer methods, standard samples are necessary to construct the transfer model using the spectra of the samples measured on two instruments, named as master and slave instrument, respectively. In this work, a method named as linear model correction (LMC) is proposed for calibration transfer without standard samples. The method is based on the fact that, for the samples with similar physical and chemical properties, the spectra measured on different instruments are linearly correlated. The fact makes the coefficients of the linear models constructed by the spectra measured on different instruments are similar in profile. Therefore, by using the constrained optimization method, the coefficients of the master model can be transferred into that of the slave model with a few spectra measured on slave instrument. Two NIR datasets of corn and plant leaf samples measured with different instruments are used to test the performance of the method. The results show that, for both the datasets, the spectra can be correctly predicted using the transferred partial least squares (PLS) models. Because standard samples are not necessary in the method, it may be more useful in practical uses. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. Coupling the land surface model NOAHMP with the generic crop growth model GECROS: Model calibration and validation (United States)

    Ingwersen, Joachim; Högy, Petra; Wizemann, Hans-Dieter; Streck, Thilo


    Weather and climate simulations depend on an accurate description of the exchange of water, energy and momentum between land surface and atmosphere. In state-of-the-art land surface models the vegetation dynamics is "frozen" that means prescribed in lookup tables. As a consequence growth and development of a crop is independent from the prevailing weather conditions, and an important feedback between atmosphere and land surface is not captured. In the present study we coupled the land surface model NOAHMP with the mechanistic generic crop growth model GECROS. On the basis of a comprehensive 5-year dataset on eddy covariance energy- and water fluxes and soil water and crop data from two different climate regions of Southwest Germany, we adapted the crop growth model GECROS, integrated it with NOAHMP, calibrated the coupled model for winter wheat and silage maize and tested its robustness in multiple-year validation runs against independent measurements. For winter wheat the model performed well both for the calibration and validation phase. Inter-annual and regional differences in crop development due to temperature anomalies were well reproduced by the model. Also the decline of evapotranspiration over the maturing phase was properly simulated. In case of maize the model performed not as good as for winter wheat. We attribute this somewhat lower model performance to the pronounced differences among maize cultivars, the high sensitivity of maize development to drill and emergence date, and its higher susceptibility to early summer droughts. Moreover, the model systematically overestimated evapotranspiration during long lasting droughts like in June 2014 indicating that in the current state NOAHMP-GECROS has some limitations in simulating water stress. We attribute this weakness to the uniform root distribution and the hydraulic functions (Clapp-Hornberger) that are implemented in NOAHMP which result in a uniform depletion of the soil water profile. The novel model

  1. Weighted calibration with reduced number of signals by weighing factor modelling: application to the identification of explosives by ion chromatography. (United States)

    Brasil, Beatriz; Bettencourt da Silva, Ricardo J N; Camões, M Filomena G F C; Salgueiro, Pedro A S


    The linear weighted regression model (LW) can be used to calibrate analytical instrumentation in a range of quantities (e.g. concentration or mass) wider than possible by the linear unweighted regression model, LuW (i.e. the least squares regression model), since this model can be applied when signals are not equally precise through the calibration range. If precision of signals varies within the calibration range, the regression line should be defined taking into account that more precise signals are more reliable and should count more to define regression parameters. Nevertheless, the LW requires the determination of the variation of signals precision through the calibration range. Typically, this information is collected experimentally for each calibration, requiring a large number of replicate collection of signals of calibrators. This work proposes reducing the number of signals needed to perform LW calibrations by developing models of weighing factors robust to daily variations of instrument sensibility. These models were applied to the determination of the ionic composition of the water soluble fraction of explosives. The adequacy of the developed models was tested through the analysis of control standards, certified reference materials and the ion balance of anions and cations in aqueous extracts of explosives, considering the measurement uncertainty estimated by detailed metrological models. The high success rate of the comparisons between estimated and known quantity values of reference solutions, considering results uncertainty, proves the validity of developed metrological models. The relative expanded measurement uncertainty of single determinations ranged from 1.93% to 35.7% for calibrations performed along 4 months. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  2. Analysis of a deep well recharge experiment by calibrating a reactive transport model with field data (United States)

    Saaltink, Maarten W.; Ayora, Carlos; Stuyfzand, Pieter J.; Timmer, Harrie


    This paper describes the modeling of the hydrogeochemical effects of deep well recharge of oxic water into an anoxic pyrite-bearing aquifer. Kinetic expressions have been used for mineral dissolution-precipitation rates and organic matter oxidation. Hydrological and chemical parameters of the model were calibrated to field measurements. The results showed that oxidation of pyrite (FeS 2) and, to a lesser extent, organic matter dominate the changes in quality of the recharged water during its passage through the aquifer. The recharge leads to the consumption of oxygen and nitrate and the formation of sulfate and ferrihydrite. Complexation reactions, cation exchange and precipitation and dissolution of calcite, siderite and rhodochrosite were also identified through the modeling. Despite problems of non-uniqueness of the calibrated parameters, the model was used successfully to depict the geochemical processes occurring in the aquifer. Non-uniqueness can be avoided by constraining the model as much as possible to measurements and/or data from literature, although they cannot be considered always as fixed values and should be considered as stochastic variables instead.

  3. Combining engineering and data-driven approaches: Development of a generic fire risk model facilitating calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    De Sanctis, G.; Fischer, K.; Kohler, J.


    are not detailed enough. Engineering risk models, on the other hand, may be detailed but typically involve assumptions that may result in a biased risk assessment and make a cost-benefit study problematic. In two related papers it is shown how engineering and data-driven modeling can be combined by developing......Fire risk models support decision making for engineering problems under the consistent consideration of the associated uncertainties. Empirical approaches can be used for cost-benefit studies when enough data about the decision problem are available. But often the empirical approaches...... a generic risk model that is calibrated to observed fire loss data. Generic risk models assess the risk of buildings based on specific risk indicators and support risk assessment at a portfolio level. After an introduction to the principles of generic risk assessment, the focus of the present paper...

  4. Verification and Calibration of a Reduced Order Wind Farm Model by Wind Tunnel Experiments (United States)

    Schreiber, J.; Nanos, E. M.; Campagnolo, F.; Bottasso, C. L.


    In this paper an adaptation of the FLORIS approach is considered that models the wind flow and power production within a wind farm. In preparation to the use of this model for wind farm control, this paper considers the problem of its calibration and validation with the use of experimental observations. The model parameters are first identified based on measurements performed on an isolated scaled wind turbine operated in a boundary layer wind tunnel in various wind-misalignment conditions. Next, the wind farm model is verified with results of experimental tests conducted on three interacting scaled wind turbines. Although some differences in the estimated absolute power are observed, the model appears to be capable of identifying with good accuracy the wind turbine misalignment angles that, by deflecting the wake, lead to maximum power for the investigated layouts.

  5. Modelling and Calibration Technique of Laser Triangulation Sensors for Integration in Robot Arms and Articulated Arm Coordinate Measuring Machines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juan J. Aguilar


    Full Text Available A technique for intrinsic and extrinsic calibration of a laser triangulation sensor (LTS integrated in an articulated arm coordinate measuring machine (AACMM is presented in this paper. After applying a novel approach to the AACMM kinematic parameter identification problem, by means of a single calibration gauge object, a one-step calibration method to obtain both intrinsic―laser plane, CCD sensor and camera geometry―and extrinsic parameters related to the AACMM main frame has been developed. This allows the integration of LTS and AACMM mathematical models without the need of additional optimization methods after the prior sensor calibration, usually done in a coordinate measuring machine (CMM before the assembly of the sensor in the arm. The experimental tests results for accuracy and repeatability show the suitable performance of this technique, resulting in a reliable, quick and friendly calibration method for the AACMM final user. The presented method is also valid for sensor integration in robot arms and CMMs.

  6. Modelling and calibration technique of laser triangulation sensors for integration in robot arms and articulated arm coordinate measuring machines. (United States)

    Santolaria, Jorge; Guillomía, David; Cajal, Carlos; Albajez, José A; Aguilar, Juan J


    A technique for intrinsic and extrinsic calibration of a laser triangulation sensor (LTS) integrated in an articulated arm coordinate measuring machine (AACMM) is presented in this paper. After applying a novel approach to the AACMM kinematic parameter identification problem, by means of a single calibration gauge object, a one-step calibration method to obtain both intrinsic-laser plane, CCD sensor and camera geometry-and extrinsic parameters related to the AACMM main frame has been developed. This allows the integration of LTS and AACMM mathematical models without the need of additional optimization methods after the prior sensor calibration, usually done in a coordinate measuring machine (CMM) before the assembly of the sensor in the arm. The experimental tests results for accuracy and repeatability show the suitable performance of this technique, resulting in a reliable, quick and friendly calibration method for the AACMM final user. The presented method is also valid for sensor integration in robot arms and CMMs.

  7. The optimization of calibration of the computer model describing the flows in the water distribution network; Study of the example

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orłowska-Szostak Maria


    Full Text Available The paper describes the issues of optimization of calculations performed during the calibration of a computer model describing the flow in the water distribution network. Optimization concerns the efficiency of these calculations which means not only the volume and speed of calculations, but above all, the optimal use of the measurements made during calibration to obtain the best, i.e. the most real value of the searched parameters/characteristics of the system components. The paper includes a short introduction which orders the range of methods of calibration and the area of calculation methods used in this class of issues, and then the description of an example where in the calibration process was used a computational tool called EPANET Calibrator developed by scientists – engineers of cooperating Brazilian universities. This tool is based on genetic...algorithm.

  8. Dynamic material flow modeling: an effort to calibrate and validate aluminum stocks and flows in Austria. (United States)

    Buchner, Hanno; Laner, David; Rechberger, Helmut; Fellner, Johann


    A calibrated and validated dynamic material flow model of Austrian aluminum (Al) stocks and flows between 1964 and 2012 was developed. Calibration and extensive plausibility testing was performed to illustrate how the quality of dynamic material flow analysis can be improved on the basis of the consideration of independent bottom-up estimates. According to the model, total Austrian in-use Al stocks reached a level of 360 kg/capita in 2012, with buildings (45%) and transport applications (32%) being the major in-use stocks. Old scrap generation (including export of end-of-life vehicles) amounted to 12.5 kg/capita in 2012, still being on the increase, while Al final demand has remained rather constant at around 25 kg/capita in the past few years. The application of global sensitivity analysis showed that only small parts of the total variance of old scrap generation could be explained by the variation of single parameters, emphasizing the need for comprehensive sensitivity analysis tools accounting for interaction between parameters and time-delay effects in dynamic material flow models. Overall, it was possible to generate a detailed understanding of the evolution of Al stocks and flows in Austria, including plausibility evaluations of the results. Such models constitute a reliable basis for evaluating future recycling potentials, in particular with respect to application-specific qualities of current and future national Al scrap generation and utilization.

  9. Calibrating the Micromechanical Parameters of the PFC2D(3D Models Using the Improved Simulated Annealing Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Wang


    Full Text Available PFC2D(3D is commercial software, which is commonly used to model the crack initiation of rock and rock-like materials. For the PFC2D(3D numerical simulation, a proper set of microparameters need to be determined before the numerical simulation. To obtain a proper set of microparameters for PFC2D(3D model based on the macroparameters obtained from physical experiments, a novel technique has been carried out in this paper. The improved simulated annealing algorithm was employed to calibrate the microparameters of the numerical simulation model of PFC2D(3D. A Python script completely controls the calibration process, which can terminate automatically based on a termination criterion. The microparameter calibration process is not based on establishing the relationship between microparameters and macroparameters; instead, the microparameters are calibrated according to the improved simulated annealing algorithm. By using the proposed approach, the microparameters of both the contact-bond model and parallel-bond model in PFC2D(3D can be determined. To verify the validity of calibrating the microparameters of PFC2D(3D via the improved simulated annealing algorithm, some examples were selected from the literature. The corresponding numerical simulations were performed, and the numerical simulation results indicated that the proposed method is reliable for calibrating the microparameters of PFC2D(3D model.

  10. Load Model Verification, Validation and Calibration Framework by Statistical Analysis on Field Data (United States)

    Jiao, Xiangqing; Liao, Yuan; Nguyen, Thai


    Accurate load models are critical for power system analysis and operation. A large amount of research work has been done on load modeling. Most of the existing research focuses on developing load models, while little has been done on developing formal load model verification and validation (V&V) methodologies or procedures. Most of the existing load model validation is based on qualitative rather than quantitative analysis. In addition, not all aspects of model V&V problem have been addressed by the existing approaches. To complement the existing methods, this paper proposes a novel load model verification and validation framework that can systematically and more comprehensively examine load model's effectiveness and accuracy. Statistical analysis, instead of visual check, quantifies the load model's accuracy, and provides a confidence level of the developed load model for model users. The analysis results can also be used to calibrate load models. The proposed framework can be used as a guidance to systematically examine load models for utility engineers and researchers. The proposed method is demonstrated through analysis of field measurements collected from a utility system.

  11. Numerical model calibration with the use of an observed sediment mobility mapping technique. (United States)

    Javernick, Luke; Redolfi, Marco; Bertoldi, Walter


    Two-dimensional numerical models' use and accuracy has greatly increased over the last decade partially due ease of topographic data access and acquisition. This is largely due to the surge in survey technologies such as GPS, LiDAR, terrestrial laser scanners (TLS), and Structure-from-Motion (SfM). As many studies have shown, topography is often the greatest influence on a model's predictive accuracy. Recently, studies have shown the use of accurate topographic datasets for numerical modeling yields appreciable accuracies in both depth and inundation patterns when compared to observed data, even in highly complicated planforms such as shallow braided rivers. Model calibration is typically limited by data availability, data quality, and the user's experience. Hydraulic calibrations with a fixed bed mode often focuses purely on depth predictions using gauge data and more rarely spatial depth data, velocity data, and inundation patterns. Morphological models with bed updating and erosion are often calibrated using erosion and deposition patterns and more rarely consider sediment transport acquired field data. Transitioning from a hydraulic to morphological calibration includes a considerable increase in complicated processes, model parameters, assumptions, and sources of errors. With morphological observed data limited to documented topographic changes, a model's 'performance' is merely based on replicating results instead of processes, and thus it is difficult to fully evaluate the model's true ability. With the increase in data acquisition and model usage, there is a need to push numerical model testing beyond traditional performance metrics and toward process evaluations. To address this need, instantaneous morphology processes must be evaluated. Flume experiments of a 24 m x 1.6 m wide channel with 1 mm sediment and a 1% slope were ran to develop a braided river and fully documented with: i) highly accurate Structure-from-Motion derived topography (average errors

  12. A multimethod Global Sensitivity Analysis to aid the calibration of geomechanical models via time-lapse seismic data (United States)

    Price, D. C.; Angus, D. A.; Garcia, A.; Fisher, Q. J.; Parsons, S.; Kato, J.


    Time-lapse seismic attributes are used extensively in the history matching of production simulator models. However, although proven to contain information regarding production induced stress change, it is typically only loosely (i.e. qualitatively) used to calibrate geomechanical models. In this study we conduct a multimethod Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to assess the feasibility and aid the quantitative calibration of geomechanical models via near-offset time-lapse seismic data. Specifically, the calibration of mechanical properties of the overburden. Via the GSA, we analyse the near-offset overburden seismic traveltimes from over 4000 perturbations of a Finite Element (FE) geomechanical model of a typical High Pressure High Temperature (HPHT) reservoir in the North Sea. We find that, out of an initially large set of material properties, the near-offset overburden traveltimes are primarily affected by Young's modulus and the effective stress (i.e. Biot) coefficient. The unexpected significance of the Biot coefficient highlights the importance of modelling fluid flow and pore pressure outside of the reservoir. The FE model is complex and highly nonlinear. Multiple combinations of model parameters can yield equally possible model realizations. Consequently, numerical calibration via a large number of random model perturbations is unfeasible. However, the significant differences in traveltime results suggest that more sophisticated calibration methods could potentially be feasible for finding numerous suitable solutions. The results of the time-varying GSA demonstrate how acquiring multiple vintages of time-lapse seismic data can be advantageous. However, they also suggest that significant overburden near-offset seismic time-shifts, useful for model calibration, may take up to 3 yrs after the start of production to manifest. Due to the nonlinearity of the model behaviour, similar uncertainty in the reservoir mechanical properties appears to influence overburden

  13. Towards an optimal experimental design for N2O model calibration during biological nitrogen removal

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Domingo Felez, Carlos; Valverde Pérez, Borja; Plósz, Benedek G.

    Process models describing nitrous oxide (N2O) production during biological nitrogen removal allow for the development of mitigation strategies of this potent greenhouse gas. N2O is an intermediate of nitrogen removal, hence its prediction is negatively affected by the uncertainty associated to its...... substrates. Improving experimental designs for model calibration reduces prediction uncertainties. Moreover, the individual analysis of autotrophic and heterotrophic contribution to the total NO and N2O pool was assessed for already proposed model structures under different experimental scenarios....... The results show the need for information-rich experiemental designs to assess the predicting capabilities of N2O models. This work represents a step further in understanding the N2O production and emissions associated to conventional wastewater treatment. Moreovere, it will facilitate the development...

  14. Virginia Tech Comprehensive Power-based Fuel Consumption Model (VT-CPFM: Model Validation and Calibration Considerations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sangjun Park


    Full Text Available A power-based vehicle fuel consumption model, entitled the Virginia Tech Comprehensive Power-based Fuel Consumption Model (VT-CPFM that was developed in an earlier publication is validated against in-field fuel consumption measurements. The study demonstrates that the VT-CPFMs calibrated using the EPA city and highway fuel economy ratings generally provide reliable fuel consumption estimates with a coefficient of determination in the range of 0.96. More importantly, both estimates and measurements produce very similar behavioral changes depending on engine load conditions. The VT-CPFMs are demonstrated to be easily calibrated using publically available data without the need to gather in-field instantaneous data.

  15. Calibrating vadose zone models with time-lapse gravity data: a forced infiltration experiment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars; Hansen, Allan Bo; Zibar, Majken Caroline Looms

    A change in soil water content is a change in mass stored in the subsurface, and when large enough, can be measured with a gravity meter. Over the last few decades there has been increased use of ground-based time-lapse gravity measurements to infer hydrogeological parameters. These studies have...... in the unsaturated zone. These results are confirmed by field measurements of gravity and georadar data at a forced infiltration experiment conducted over 14 days on a grassland area of 10 m by 10 m. An unsaturated zone infiltration model can be calibrated using the gravity data with good agreement to the field data...

  16. A parameter for the selection of an optimum balance calibration model by Monte Carlo simulation

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Bidgood, Peter M


    Full Text Available . In turn, this can only result in improved wind tunnel data quality. REFERENCES [1] Raymond Bergman, Iwan Phillipsen. "An experimental comparison of different load tables for balance calibration." Williamsburg, Virginia : 7th International Symposium... Regarding Rules of Thumb for Variance Inflation Factors." s.l. : Springer, 2007. Vols. Quality & Quantity (2007) 41:673-690, DOI 10.1007/s11135-006-9018-6. [5] T.Volden, N.Ulbrich. "Regression Model Term Selection for the Analysis of Strain–Gage Balance...

  17. A Monte Carlo modeling alternative for the API Gamma Ray Calibration Facility. (United States)

    Galford, J E


    The gamma ray pit at the API Calibration Facility, located on the University of Houston campus, defines the API unit for natural gamma ray logs used throughout the petroleum logging industry. Future use of the facility is uncertain. An alternative method is proposed to preserve the gamma ray API unit definition as an industry standard by using Monte Carlo modeling to obtain accurate counting rate-to-API unit conversion factors for gross-counting and spectral gamma ray tool designs. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. A Novel Error Model of Optical Systems and an On-Orbit Calibration Method for Star Sensors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuang Wang


    Full Text Available In order to improve the on-orbit measurement accuracy of star sensors, the effects of image-plane rotary error, image-plane tilt error and distortions of optical systems resulting from the on-orbit thermal environment were studied in this paper. Since these issues will affect the precision of star image point positions, in this paper, a novel measurement error model based on the traditional error model is explored. Due to the orthonormal characteristics of image-plane rotary-tilt errors and the strong nonlinearity among these error parameters, it is difficult to calibrate all the parameters simultaneously. To solve this difficulty, for the new error model, a modified two-step calibration method based on the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF and Least Square Methods (LSM is presented. The former one is used to calibrate the main point drift, focal length error and distortions of optical systems while the latter estimates the image-plane rotary-tilt errors. With this calibration method, the precision of star image point position influenced by the above errors is greatly improved from 15.42% to 1.389%. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate that the presented measurement error model for star sensors has higher precision. Moreover, the proposed two-step method can effectively calibrate model error parameters, and the calibration precision of on-orbit star sensors is also improved obviously.

  19. Validation of a Monte Carlo Model of the Fork Detector with a Calibrated Neutron Source (United States)

    Borella, Alessandro; Mihailescu, Liviu-Cristian


    The investigation of experimental methods for safeguarding spent fuel elements is one of the research areas at the Belgian Nuclear Research Centre SCK•CEN. A version of the so-called Fork Detector has been designed at SCK•CEN and is in use at the Belgian Nuclear Power Plant of Doel for burnup determination purposes. The Fork Detector relies on passive neutron and gamma measurements for the assessment of the burnup and safeguards verification activities. In order to better evaluate and understand the method and in view to extend its capabilities, an effort to model the Fork detector was made with the code MCNPX. A validation of the model was done in the past using spent fuel measurement data. This paper reports about the measurements carried out at the Laboratory for Nuclear Calibrations (LNK) of SCK•CEN with a 252Cf source calibrated according to ISO 8529 standards. The experimental data are presented and compared with simulations. In the simulations, not only was the detector modeled but also the measurement room was taken into account based on the available design information. The results of this comparison exercise are also presented in this paper.

  20. Rapid method for simulating gas spectra using reversed PCR temperature calibration models based on Hitran data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bak, J.


    A computer program was produced to make rapid simulations of CO gas spectra at a spectral resolution of 1 cm(-1) and at temperatures ranging from 295 to 845 K and concentrations from 5 to 400 mg/m(3). The program is based on loadings and scores from three principal component regression (PCR) temp...... a uniform slab of gas at various temperatures, concentrations, and pathlengths. The gain in speed of the calculations of the spectra is based on the fact that the PCR models include mathematical pretreatments and compress the data effectively.......A computer program was produced to make rapid simulations of CO gas spectra at a spectral resolution of 1 cm(-1) and at temperatures ranging from 295 to 845 K and concentrations from 5 to 400 mg/m(3). The program is based on loadings and scores from three principal component regression (PCR......) temperature calibration models. Three sets of 12 Hitran-simulated high-density spectra, each set spanning the entire temperature range at constant concentrations (50, 150, and 300 mg/m(3)), were used as calibration spectra in the PCR temperature models. All the spectra were convoluted with a sine...

  1. On the Free Vibration Modeling of Spindle Systems: A Calibrated Dynamic Stiffness Matrix

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Omar Gaber


    Full Text Available The effect of bearings on the vibrational behavior of machine tool spindles is investigated. This is done through the development of a calibrated dynamic stiffness matrix (CDSM method, where the bearings flexibility is represented by massless linear spring elements with tuneable stiffness. A dedicated MATLAB code is written to develop and to assemble the element stiffness matrices for the system’s multiple components and to apply the boundary conditions. The developed method is applied to an illustrative example of spindle system. When the spindle bearings are modeled as simply supported boundary conditions, the DSM model results in a fundamental frequency much higher than the system’s nominal value. The simply supported boundary conditions are then replaced by linear spring elements, and the spring constants are adjusted such that the resulting calibrated CDSM model leads to the nominal fundamental frequency of the spindle system. The spindle frequency results are also validated against the experimental data. The proposed method can be effectively applied to predict the vibration characteristics of spindle systems supported by bearings.

  2. Calibration and validation of models for short-term decomposition and N mineralization of plant residues in the tropics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alexandre Ferreira do Nascimento


    Full Text Available Insight of nutrient release patterns associated with the decomposition of plant residues is important for their effective use as a green manure in food production systems. Thus, this study aimed to evaluate the ability of the Century, APSIM and NDICEA simulation models for predicting the decomposition and N mineralization of crop residues in the tropical Atlantic forest biome, Brazil. The simulation models were calibrated based on actual decomposition and N mineralization rates of three types of crop residues with different chemical and biochemical composition. The models were also validated for different pedo-climatic conditions and crop residues conditions. In general, the accuracy of decomposition and N mineralization improved after calibration. Overall RMSE values for the decomposition and N mineralization of the crop materials varied from 7.4 to 64.6% before models calibration compared to 3.7 to 16.3 % after calibration. Therefore, adequate calibration of the models is indispensable for use them under humid tropical conditions. The NDICEA model generally outperformed the other models. However, the decomposition and N mineralization was not very accurate during the first 30 days of incubation, especially for easily decomposable crop residues. An additional model variable may be required to capture initial microbiological growth as affected by the moisture dynamics of the residues, as is the case in surface residues decomposition models.

  3. Electricity Price Forecast Using Combined Models with Adaptive Weights Selected and Errors Calibrated by Hidden Markov Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Da Liu


    Full Text Available A combined forecast with weights adaptively selected and errors calibrated by Hidden Markov model (HMM is proposed to model the day-ahead electricity price. Firstly several single models were built to forecast the electricity price separately. Then the validation errors from every individual model were transformed into two discrete sequences: an emission sequence and a state sequence to build the HMM, obtaining a transmission matrix and an emission matrix, representing the forecasting ability state of the individual models. The combining weights of the individual models were decided by the state transmission matrixes in HMM and the best predict sample ratio of each individual among all the models in the validation set. The individual forecasts were averaged to get the combining forecast with the weights obtained above. The residuals of combining forecast were calibrated by the possible error calculated by the emission matrix of HMM. A case study of day-ahead electricity market of Pennsylvania-New Jersey-Maryland (PJM, USA, suggests that the proposed method outperforms individual techniques of price forecasting, such as support vector machine (SVM, generalized regression neural networks (GRNN, day-ahead modeling, and self-organized map (SOM similar days modeling.

  4. Simultaneous geologic scenario identification and flow model calibration with group-sparsity formulations (United States)

    Golmohammadi, Azarang; Jafarpour, Behnam


    Adopting representative geologic connectivity scenarios is critical for reliable modeling and prediction of flow and transport processes in subsurface environments. Geologic scenarios are often developed by integrating several sources of information, including knowledge of the depositional environment, qualitative and quantitative data such as outcrop and well logs, and process-based geologic modeling. In general, flow and transport response data are usually not included in constructing geologic scenarios for a basin. Instead, these data are typically matched using a given prior geologic scenario as constraint. Since data limitations, modeling assumptions and subjective interpretations can lead to significant uncertainty in the adopted geologic scenarios, flow and transport data may also be useful for constraining the uncertainty in proposed geologic scenarios. Constraining geologic scenarios with flow-related data opens an interesting and challenging research area, which goes beyond the traditional model calibration formulations where the geologic scenario is assumed given. In this paper, a novel concept, known as group-sparsity regularization, is proposed as an effective formulation to constrain the uncertainty in the prior geologic scenario during subsurface flow model calibration. Given a collection of model realizations from several plausible geologic scenarios, the proposed method first applies the truncated singular value decomposition (TSVD) to compactly represent the models from each geologic scenario. The TSVD basis for representing each scenario forms a distinct group. The proposed approach searches over these groups (i.e., geologic scenarios) to eliminate inconsistent groups that are not supported by the observed flow/pressure data. The group-sparsity regularization minimizes a l1/l2mixed norm, where the l2-norm quantifies the contribution of each group and operates on the coefficients within the groups while the l1-norm, having a selection property, is

  5. Calibration and Stokes Imaging with Full Embedded Element Primary Beam Model for the Murchison Widefield Array (United States)

    Sokolowski, M.; Colegate, T.; Sutinjo, A. T.; Ung, D.; Wayth, R.; Hurley-Walker, N.; Lenc, E.; Pindor, B.; Morgan, J.; Kaplan, D. L.; Bell, M. E.; Callingham, J. R.; Dwarakanath, K. S.; For, Bi-Qing; Gaensler, B. M.; Hancock, P. J.; Hindson, L.; Johnston-Hollitt, M.; Kapińska, A. D.; McKinley, B.; Offringa, A. R.; Procopio, P.; Staveley-Smith, L.; Wu, C.; Zheng, Q.


    The Murchison Widefield Array (MWA), located in Western Australia, is one of the low-frequency precursors of the international Square Kilometre Array (SKA) project. In addition to pursuing its own ambitious science programme, it is also a testbed for wide range of future SKA activities ranging from hardware, software to data analysis. The key science programmes for the MWA and SKA require very high dynamic ranges, which challenges calibration and imaging systems. Correct calibration of the instrument and accurate measurements of source flux densities and polarisations require precise characterisation of the telescope's primary beam. Recent results from the MWA GaLactic Extragalactic All-sky Murchison Widefield Array (GLEAM) survey show that the previously implemented Average Embedded Element (AEE) model still leaves residual polarisations errors of up to 10-20% in Stokes Q. We present a new simulation-based Full Embedded Element (FEE) model which is the most rigorous realisation yet of the MWA's primary beam model. It enables efficient calculation of the MWA beam response in arbitrary directions without necessity of spatial interpolation. In the new model, every dipole in the MWA tile (4 × 4 bow-tie dipoles) is simulated separately, taking into account all mutual coupling, ground screen, and soil effects, and therefore accounts for the different properties of the individual dipoles within a tile. We have applied the FEE beam model to GLEAM observations at 200-231 MHz and used false Stokes parameter leakage as a metric to compare the models. We have determined that the FEE model reduced the magnitude and declination-dependent behaviour of false polarisation in Stokes Q and V while retaining low levels of false polarisation in Stokes U.

  6. Sediment plume model-a comparison between use of measured turbidity data and satellite images for model calibration. (United States)

    Sadeghian, Amir; Hudson, Jeff; Wheater, Howard; Lindenschmidt, Karl-Erich


    In this study, we built a two-dimensional sediment transport model of Lake Diefenbaker, Saskatchewan, Canada. It was calibrated by using measured turbidity data from stations along the reservoir and satellite images based on a flood event in 2013. In June 2013, there was heavy rainfall for two consecutive days on the frozen and snow-covered ground in the higher elevations of western Alberta, Canada. The runoff from the rainfall and the melted snow caused one of the largest recorded inflows to the headwaters of the South Saskatchewan River and Lake Diefenbaker downstream. An estimated discharge peak of over 5200 m3/s arrived at the reservoir inlet with a thick sediment front within a few days. The sediment plume moved quickly through the entire reservoir and remained visible from satellite images for over 2 weeks along most of the reservoir, leading to concerns regarding water quality. The aims of this study are to compare, quantitatively and qualitatively, the efficacy of using turbidity data and satellite images for sediment transport model calibration and to determine how accurately a sediment transport model can simulate sediment transport based on each of them. Both turbidity data and satellite images were very useful for calibrating the sediment transport model quantitatively and qualitatively. Model predictions and turbidity measurements show that the flood water and suspended sediments entered upstream fairly well mixed and moved downstream as overflow with a sharp gradient at the plume front. The model results suggest that the settling and resuspension rates of sediment are directly proportional to flow characteristics and that the use of constant coefficients leads to model underestimation or overestimation unless more data on sediment formation become available. Hence, this study reiterates the significance of the availability of data on sediment distribution and characteristics for building a robust and reliable sediment transport model.

  7. Ensemble engineering and statistical modeling for parameter calibration towards optimal design of microbial fuel cells (United States)

    Sun, Hongyue; Luo, Shuai; Jin, Ran; He, Zhen


    Mathematical modeling is an important tool to investigate the performance of microbial fuel cell (MFC) towards its optimized design. To overcome the shortcoming of traditional MFC models, an ensemble model is developed through integrating both engineering model and statistical analytics for the extrapolation scenarios in this study. Such an ensemble model can reduce laboring effort in parameter calibration and require fewer measurement data to achieve comparable accuracy to traditional statistical model under both the normal and extreme operation regions. Based on different weight between current generation and organic removal efficiency, the ensemble model can give recommended input factor settings to achieve the best current generation and organic removal efficiency. The model predicts a set of optimal design factors for the present tubular MFCs including the anode flow rate of 3.47 mL min-1, organic concentration of 0.71 g L-1, and catholyte pumping flow rate of 14.74 mL min-1 to achieve the peak current at 39.2 mA. To maintain 100% organic removal efficiency, the anode flow rate and organic concentration should be controlled lower than 1.04 mL min-1 and 0.22 g L-1, respectively. The developed ensemble model can be potentially modified to model other types of MFCs or bioelectrochemical systems.

  8. Optimization of electronic enclosure design for thermal and moisture management using calibrated models of progressive complexity

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mohanty, Sankhya; Staliulionis, Zygimantas; Shojaee Nasirabadi, Parizad


    The thermal and moisture management of electronic enclosures are fields of high interest in recent years. It is now generally accepted that the protection of electronic devices is dependent on avoiding critical levels of relative humidity (typically 60–90%) during operations. Leveraging...... the development of rigorous calibrated CFD models as well as simple predictive numerical tools, the current paper tackles the optimization of critical features of a typical two-chamber electronic enclosure. The progressive optimization strategy begins the design parameter selection by initially using simpler...... equivalent RC-circuit models for concentration of water vapor and temperature in the electronic enclosure. After reducing the potential parameter-value space for the critical features using the RC-approach, the optimization strategy uses simpler 2D CFD models of temperature and moisture transport to further...

  9. A case study on robust optimal experimental design for model calibration of ω-Transaminase

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daele, Timothy, Van; Van Hauwermeiren, Daan; Ringborg, Rolf Hoffmeyer

    is to make the design less dependent on one specific parameter set, but make it suitable for a subset of parameters in a local parameter space.This robust OED methodology is currently being applied to the backward part of the model of Shin and Kim (1998) to design experiments for the conversion of 1-methyl-2...... and measurement errors. Since the latter was not provided, a conservative standard deviation of 5% was assumed. The confidence analysis yielded that only two (Vr and Kac) out of five parameters were reliable estimates, which means that model predictions and decisions based on them are highly uncertain. The reason......” parameter values are not known before finishing the model calibration. However, it is important that the chosen parameter values are close to the real parameter values, otherwise the OED can possibly yield non-informative experiments. To counter this problem, one can use robust OED. The idea of robust OED...

  10. Lattice modeling and calibration with turn-by-turn orbit data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaobiao Huang


    Full Text Available A new method that explores turn-by-turn beam position monitor (BPM data to calibrate lattice models of accelerators is proposed. The turn-by-turn phase space coordinates at one location of the ring are first established using data from two BPMs separated by a simple section with a known transfer matrix, such as a drift space. The phase space coordinates are then tracked with the model to predict positions at other BPMs, which can be compared to measurements. The model is adjusted to minimize the difference between the measured and predicted orbit data. BPM gains and rolls are included as fitting variables. This technique can be applied to either the entire or a section of the ring. We have tested the method experimentally on a part of the SPEAR3 ring.

  11. Calibration of the comprehensive NDHA-N2O dynamics model for nitrifier-enriched biomass using targeted respirometric assays

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Domingo-Felez, Carlos; Calderó-Pascual, María; Sin, Gürkan


    The NDHA model comprehensively describes nitrous oxide (N2O) producing pathways by both autotrophic ammonium oxidizing and heterotrophic bacteria. The model was calibrated via a set of targeted extant respirometric assays using enriched nitrifying biomass from a lab-scale reactor. Biomass response...... determined by the information content of the datasets using identifiability analysis. Dynamic DO profiles were used to calibrate five parameters corresponding to endogenous, nitrite oxidation and ammonium oxidation processes. The subsequent N2O calibration was not significantly affected by the uncertainty...... propagated from the DO calibration because of the high accuracy of the estimates. Five parameters describing the individual contribution of three biological N2O pathways were estimated accurately (variance/mean

  12. Sensitivity analysis and development of calibration methodology for near-surface hydrogeology model of Forsmark

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Aneljung, Maria; Gustafsson, Lars-Goeran [DHI Water and Environment AB, Goeteborg (Sweden)


    The hydrological modelling system MIKE SHE has been used to describe near-surface groundwater flow, transport mechanisms and the contact between ground- and surface water at the Forsmark site. The surface water system at Forsmark is described with the 1D modelling tool MIKE 11, which is fully and dynamically integrated with MIKE SHE. In spring 2007, a new data freeze will be available and a process of updating, rebuilding and calibrating the MIKE SHE model will start, based on the latest data set. Prior to this, it is important to gather as much knowledge as possible on calibration methods and to define critical calibration parameters and areas within the model. In this project, an optimization of the numerical description and an initial calibration of the MIKE SHE model has been made, and an updated base case has been defined. Data from 5 surface water level monitoring stations, 4 surface water discharge monitoring stations and 32 groundwater level monitoring stations (SFM soil boreholes) has been used for model calibration and evaluation. The base case simulations generally show a good agreement between calculated and measured water levels and discharges, indicating that the total runoff from the area is well described by the model. Moreover, with two exceptions (SFM0012 and SFM0022) the base case results show very good agreement between calculated and measured groundwater head elevations for boreholes installed below lakes. The model also shows a reasonably good agreement between calculated and measured groundwater head elevations or depths to phreatic surfaces in many other points. The following major types of calculation-measurement differences can be noted: Differences in groundwater level amplitudes due to transpiration processes. Differences in absolute mean groundwater head, due to differences between borehole casing levels and the interpolated DEM. Differences in absolute mean head elevations, due to local errors in hydraulic conductivity values

  13. Converting computed tomography images into photon interaction coefficients by using stoichiometric calibration and parametric fit models. (United States)

    Shih, Cheng-Ting; Wu, Jay


    X ray and γ-ray are widely applied in radiology, radiotherapy, and nuclear medicine. Linear attenuation coefficients and linear energy absorption coefficients are essential for dose calculation and image correction. In this study, a method that entails combining the stoichiometric calibration and parametric physical models was developed to convert computed tomography (CT) images into the linear attenuation coefficients and linear energy absorption coefficients. A calibration scan was performed using standard tissue-equivalent materials to obtain the characteristics of the x-ray energy spectrum. Subsequently, relationships between CT numbers and tissue parameters were established using standard soft tissue and bone tissue data adopted from the literature. The linear attenuation coefficient and linear energy absorption coefficient were calculated using the parametric fit model. The results showed a linear relationship between CT numbers and tissue parameters. The tissue-equivalent materials differed from real human tissues, leading to considerable errors in estimation of mass attenuation coefficients when the photon energy was lower than 50 keV. Mass attenuation coefficients and mass energy transfer coefficients of five tissues were calculated and validated using clinical CT images. The error was less than ± 5% and ± 8%, compared with the values of the International Commission on Radiation Units (ICRU) 46 report. The probability of photon interaction with tissues and physical characteristics of tissues can be accurately evaluated by using the proposed method and applied in various clinical applications. © 2016 American Association of Physicists in Medicine.

  14. Robust colour calibration of an imaging system using a colour space transform and advanced regression modelling. (United States)

    Jackman, Patrick; Sun, Da-Wen; Elmasry, Gamal


    A new algorithm for the conversion of device dependent RGB colour data into device independent L*a*b* colour data without introducing noticeable error has been developed. By combining a linear colour space transform and advanced multiple regression methodologies it was possible to predict L*a*b* colour data with less than 2.2 colour units of error (CIE 1976). By transforming the red, green and blue colour components into new variables that better reflect the structure of the L*a*b* colour space, a low colour calibration error was immediately achieved (ΔE(CAL) = 14.1). Application of a range of regression models on the data further reduced the colour calibration error substantially (multilinear regression ΔE(CAL) = 5.4; response surface ΔE(CAL) = 2.9; PLSR ΔE(CAL) = 2.6; LASSO regression ΔE(CAL) = 2.1). Only the PLSR models deteriorated substantially under cross validation. The algorithm is adaptable and can be easily recalibrated to any working computer vision system. The algorithm was tested on a typical working laboratory computer vision system and delivered only a very marginal loss of colour information ΔE(CAL) = 2.35. Colour features derived on this system were able to safely discriminate between three classes of ham with 100% correct classification whereas colour features measured on a conventional colourimeter were not. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Calibration of parameters of water supply network model using genetic algorithm

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Tomasz Boczar; Norbert Adamikiewicz; Włodzimierz Stanisławski


    ...: the pressure on the node and volume flow in the network section. The first calibration method regards to application of the genetic algorithm, which is a build in plugin - “Epanet Calibrator...

  16. Three Different Ways of Calibrating Burger's Contact Model for Viscoelastic Model of Asphalt Mixtures by Discrete Element Method

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Huan; Pettinari, Matteo; Stang, Henrik


    In this paper the viscoelastic behavior of asphalt mixture was investigated by employing a three-dimensional discrete element method. Combined with Burger's model, three contact models were used for the construction of constitutive asphalt mixture model with viscoelastic properties in the commerc...... and the laboratory test values for the complex modulus shows that DEM can be used to reliably predict the viscoelastic properties of asphalt mixtures.......In this paper the viscoelastic behavior of asphalt mixture was investigated by employing a three-dimensional discrete element method. Combined with Burger's model, three contact models were used for the construction of constitutive asphalt mixture model with viscoelastic properties...... modulus. Three different approaches have been used and compared for calibrating the Burger's contact model. Values of the dynamic modulus and phase angle of asphalt mixtures were predicted by conducting DE simulation under dynamic strain control loading. The excellent agreement between the predicted...

  17. Dynamic Calibration and Validation of an Accelerometer Force Balance for Hypersonic Lifting Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prakash Singh


    Full Text Available An accelerometer-based force balance was designed and developed for the measurement of drag, lift, and rolling moment on a blunt-nosed, flapped delta wing in a short-duration hypersonic shock tunnel. Calibration and validation of the balance were carried out by a convolution technique using hammer pulse test and surface pressure measurements. In the hammer pulse test, a known impulse was applied to the model in the appropriate direction using an impulse hammer, and the corresponding output of the balance (acceleration was recorded. Fast Fourier Transform (FFT was operated on the output of the balance to generate a system response function, relating the signal output to the corresponding load input. Impulse response functions for three components of the balance, namely, axial, normal, and angular, were obtained for a range of input load. The angular system response function was corresponding to rolling of the model. The impulse response functions thus obtained, through dynamic calibration, were operated on the output (signals of the balance under hypersonic aerodynamic loading conditions in the tunnel to get the time history of the unknown aerodynamic forces and moments acting on the model. Surface pressure measurements were carried out on the model using high frequency pressure transducers, and forces and moments were deduced thereon. Tests were carried out at model angles of incidence of 0, 5, 10, and 15 degrees. A good agreement was observed among the results of different experimental methods. The balance developed is a comprehensive force/moment measurement device that can be used on complex, lifting, aerodynamic geometries in ground-based hypersonic test facilities.

  18. Calibration of a Land Subsidence Model Using InSAR Data via the Ensemble Kalman Filter. (United States)

    Li, Liangping; Zhang, Meijing; Katzenstein, Kurt


    The application of interferometric synthetic aperture radar (InSAR) has been increasingly used to improve capabilities to model land subsidence in hydrogeologic studies. A number of investigations over the last decade show how spatially detailed time-lapse images of ground displacements could be utilized to advance our understanding for better predictions. In this work, we use simulated land subsidences as observed measurements, mimicking InSAR data to inversely infer inelastic specific storage in a stochastic framework. The inelastic specific storage is assumed as a random variable and modeled using a geostatistical method such that the detailed variations in space could be represented and also that the uncertainties of both characterization of specific storage and prediction of land subsidence can be assessed. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a real-time data assimilation algorithm, is used to inversely calibrate a land subsidence model by matching simulated subsidences with InSAR data. The performance of the EnKF is demonstrated in a synthetic example in which simulated surface deformations using a reference field are assumed as InSAR data for inverse modeling. The results indicate: (1) the EnKF can be used successfully to calibrate a land subsidence model with InSAR data; the estimation of inelastic specific storage is improved, and uncertainty of prediction is reduced, when all the data are accounted for; and (2) if the same ensemble is used to estimate Kalman gain, the analysis errors could cause filter divergence; thus, it is essential to include localization in the EnKF for InSAR data assimilation. © 2017, National Ground Water Association.

  19. Discharge and Nitrogen Transfer Modelling in the Berze River: A HYPE Setup and Calibration (United States)

    Veinbergs, Arturs; Lagzdins, Ainis; Jansons, Viesturs; Abramenko, Kaspars; Sudars, Ritvars


    This study is focused on water quality and quantity modelling in the Berze River basin located in the Zemgale region of Latvia. The contributing basin area of 872 km2 is furthermore divided into 15 sub-basins designated according to the characteristics of hydrological network and water sampling programme. The river basin of interest is a spatially complex system with agricultural land and forests as two predominant land use types. Complexity of the system reflects in the discharge intensity and diffuse pollution of nitrogen compounds into the water bodies of the river basin. The presence of urban area has an impact as the load from the existing wastewater treatment plants consist up to 76 % of the total nitrogen load in the Berze River basin. Representative data sets of land cover, agricultural field data base for crop distribution analysis, estimation of crop management, soil type map, digital elevation model, drainage conditions, network of water bodies and point sources were used for the modelling procedures. The semi-distributed hydro chemical model HYPE has a setup to simulate discharge and nitrogen transfer. In order to make the model more robust and appropriate for the current study the data sets previously stated were classified by unifying similar spatially located polygons. The data layers were overlaid and 53 hydrological response units (SLCs) were created. Agricultural land consists of 48 SLCs with the details of soils, drainage conditions, crop types, and land management practices. Manual calibration procedure was applied to improve the performance of discharge simulation. Simulated discharge values showed good agreement with the observed values with the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.82 and bias of -6.6 %. Manual calibration of parameters related to nitrogen leakage simulation was applied to test the most sensitive parameters.

  20. Online Calibration Methods for the DINA Model with Independent Attributes in CD-CAT (United States)

    Chen, Ping; Xin, Tao; Wang, Chun; Chang, Hua-Hua


    Item replenishing is essential for item bank maintenance in cognitive diagnostic computerized adaptive testing (CD-CAT). In regular CAT, online calibration is commonly used to calibrate the new items continuously. However, until now no reference has publicly become available about online calibration for CD-CAT. Thus, this study investigates the…

  1. Can satellite land surface temperature data be used similarly to ground discharge measurements for distributed hydrological model calibration?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Corbari, C.; Mancini, M.; Li, J.; Su, Zhongbo


    This study proposes a new methodology for the calibration of distributed hydrological models at basin scale by constraining an internal model variable using satellite data of land surface temperature. The model algorithm solves the system of energy and mass balances in terms of a representative

  2. Calibrating a large-extent high-resolution coupled groundwater-land surface model using soil moisture and discharge data

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sutanudjaja, E.H.; Beek, L.P.H. van; Jong, S.M. de; Geer, F.C. van; Bierkens, M.F.P.


    We explore the possibility of using remotely sensed soil moisture data and in situ discharge observations to calibrate a large-extent hydrological model. The model used is PCR-GLOBWB-MOD, which is a physically based and fully coupled groundwater-land surface model operating at a daily basis and

  3. Efficient model calibration method based on phase experiments for anaerobic-anoxic/nitrifying (A2N) two-sludge process. (United States)

    Dai, Hongliang; Chen, Wenliang; Dai, Zheqin; Li, Xiang; Lu, Xiwu


    A systematic calibration and validation procedure for the complex mechanistic modeling of anaerobic-anoxic/nitrifying (A2N) two-sludge system is needed. An efficient method based on phase experiments, sensitivity analysis, and genetic algorithm is proposed here for model calibration. Phase experiments (anaerobic phosphorus release, aerobic nitrification, and anoxic denitrifying phosphate accumulation) in an A2N sequencing batch reactor (SBR) were performed to reflect the process conditions accurately and improve the model calibration efficiency. The calibrated model was further validated using 30 batch experiments and 3-month dynamic continuous flow (CF) experiments for A2N-SBR and CF-A2N process, respectively. Several statistical criteria were conducted to evaluate the accuracy of model predications, including the average relative deviation (ARD), mean absolute error (MAE), root mean square error (RMSE), and Janus coefficient. Visual comparisons and statistical analyses indicated that the calibrated model could provide accurate predictions for the effluent chemical oxygen demand (COD), ammonia nitrogen (NH 4 + -N), total nitrogen (TN), and total phosphorus (TP), with only one iteration.

  4. Establishment and calibration of consensus process model for nitrous oxide dynamics in water quality engineering

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Domingo-Felez, Carlos

    that enhance cost and energy efficiency in BNR, while maintaining effluent quali-ty. Now, increasing attention is placed on direct emissions of nitrous oxide (N2O) as by-product of BNR; N2O is a greenhouse gas (GHG) with a high warming potential and also an ozone depleting chemical compound. Several N2O...... consumption (endogenous activity, nitrite and ammonium oxidation) and N2O production (NN, ND and HD pathway contributions). To estimate parameters of the N2O model a rigorous procedure is presented as a case study. The calibrated model predicts the NO and N2O dynamics at varying ammonium, nitrite...... and dissolved oxygen levels in two independent systems: (a) an AOB-enriched biomass and (b) activated sludge (AS) mixed liquor biomass. A total of ten (a) and seventeen (b) parameters are identified with high accuracy (coefficients of variation

  5. Comparison and calibration of numerical models from monitoring data of a reinforced concrete highway bridge

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. G. M. de Andrade

    Full Text Available The last four decades were important for the Brazilian highway system. Financial investments were made so it could expand and many structural solutions for bridges and viaducts were developed. In parallel, there was a significant raise of pathologies in these structures, due to lack of maintenance procedures. Thus, this paper main purpose is to create a short-term monitoring plan in order to check the structural behavior of a curved highway concrete bridge in current use. A bridge was chosen as a case study. A hierarchy of six numerical models is shown, so it can validate the bridge's structural behaviour. The acquired data from the monitoring was compared with the finest models so a calibration could be made.

  6. Calibration of the L-MEB model over a coniferous and a deciduous forest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Grant, Jennifer P.; Saleh-Contell, Kauzar; Wigneron, Jean-Pierre


    In this paper, the L-band Microwave Emission of the Biosphere (L-MEB) model used in the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity (SMOS) Level 2 Soil Moisture algorithm is calibrated using L-band (1.4 GHz) microwave measurements over a coniferous (Pine) and a deciduous (mixed/Beech) forest. This resulted...... temperatures from 2.8 to 3.8 K, depending on data set and polarization. Furthermore, the relationship between canopy optical depth and leaf area index is investigated for the deciduous site. Finally, a sensitivity study is conducted for the focus parameters, temperature, soil moisture, and precipitation....... The results found in this paper will be integrated in the operational SMOS Level 2 Soil Moisture algorithm and used in future inversions of the L-MEB model, for soil moisture retrievals over heterogeneous, partly forested areas....

  7. Clustered iterative stochastic ensemble method for multi-modal calibration of subsurface flow models

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H.


    A novel multi-modal parameter estimation algorithm is introduced. Parameter estimation is an ill-posed inverse problem that might admit many different solutions. This is attributed to the limited amount of measured data used to constrain the inverse problem. The proposed multi-modal model calibration algorithm uses an iterative stochastic ensemble method (ISEM) for parameter estimation. ISEM employs an ensemble of directional derivatives within a Gauss-Newton iteration for nonlinear parameter estimation. ISEM is augmented with a clustering step based on k-means algor