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Sample records for swat model calibration

  1. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Gorgan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  2. SWAT Model Configuration, Calibration and Validation for Lake Champlain Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to develop phosphorus loading estimates for sources in the Lake Champlain Basin. This document describes the model setup and parameterization, and presents calibration results.

  3. Using expert knowledge of the hydrological system to constrain multi-objective calibration of SWAT models

    Science.gov (United States)

    The SWAT model is a helpful tool to predict hydrological processes in a study catchment and their impact on the river discharge at the catchment outlet. For reliable discharge predictions, a precise simulation of hydrological processes is required. Therefore, SWAT has to be calibrated accurately to ...

  4. Transferability of SWAT Models between SWAT2009 and SWAT2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seo, Mijin; Yen, Haw; Kim, Min-Kyeong; Jeong, Jaehak

    2014-05-01

    In recent years, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has experienced upgrades with enhanced functionalities and modeling capacities as it gets to the current version, SWAT2012. Changes in the SWAT code on a specific process may result in propagating influences in the output of other related processes. In this study, the characteristic significance of the enhancements in SWAT code was investigated using the two recent versions, SWAT2009 and SWAT2012. Using a global optimization technique, each model was calibrated for flow, sediment, and nutrient and then tested for transferability of parameters between the models. Results indicate that flow and water quality output were well calibrated with both models. However, the calibrated parameters determined by SWAT2009 and SWAT2012 were noticeably different, due mostly to the enhancements made in SWAT2012. Our results indicate that only the stream flow result was reliable when the models were upgraded or downgraded between the two versions after calibration. Sediment prediction was marginally reliable. SWAT parameters were nontransferrable if nutrient was the main output. The differences are due to various reasons, such as disparities in algorithms at the process level and propagation of the resulting uncertainty into higher-order processes. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  5. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model for a forested watershed in coastal South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Elizabeth B. Haley; Norman S. Levine; Timothy J. Callahan; Artur Radecki-Pawlik; Manoj K. Jha

    2008-01-01

    Modeling the hydrology of low-gradient coastal watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils is a challenging task due to the complexities in watershed delineation, runoff generation processes and pathways, flooding, and submergence caused by tropical storms. The objective of the study is to calibrate and validate a GIS-based spatially-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT...

  6. A multi-objective approach to improve SWAT model calibration in alpine catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuo, Ye; Marcolini, Giorgia; Disse, Markus; Chiogna, Gabriele

    2018-04-01

    Multi-objective hydrological model calibration can represent a valuable solution to reduce model equifinality and parameter uncertainty. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is widely applied to investigate water quality and water management issues in alpine catchments. However, the model calibration is generally based on discharge records only, and most of the previous studies have defined a unique set of snow parameters for an entire basin. Only a few studies have considered snow observations to validate model results or have taken into account the possible variability of snow parameters for different subbasins. This work presents and compares three possible calibration approaches. The first two procedures are single-objective calibration procedures, for which all parameters of the SWAT model were calibrated according to river discharge alone. Procedures I and II differ from each other by the assumption used to define snow parameters: The first approach assigned a unique set of snow parameters to the entire basin, whereas the second approach assigned different subbasin-specific sets of snow parameters to each subbasin. The third procedure is a multi-objective calibration, in which we considered snow water equivalent (SWE) information at two different spatial scales (i.e. subbasin and elevation band), in addition to discharge measurements. We tested these approaches in the Upper Adige river basin where a dense network of snow depth measurement stations is available. Only the set of parameters obtained with this multi-objective procedure provided an acceptable prediction of both river discharge and SWE. These findings offer the large community of SWAT users a strategy to improve SWAT modeling in alpine catchments.

  7. SWAT application in intensive irrigation systems: Model modification, calibration and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dechmi, Farida; Burguete, Javier; Skhiri, Ahmed

    2012-11-01

    SummaryThe Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a well established, distributed, eco-hydrologic model. However, using the study case of an agricultural intensive irrigated watershed, it was shown that all the model versions are not able to appropriately reproduce the total streamflow in such system when the irrigation source is outside the watershed. The objective of this study was to modify the SWAT2005 version for correctly simulating the main hydrological processes. Crop yield, total streamflow, total suspended sediment (TSS) losses and phosphorus load calibration and validation were performed using field survey information and water quantity and quality data recorded during 2008 and 2009 years in Del Reguero irrigated watershed in Spain. The goodness of the calibration and validation results was assessed using five statistical measures, including the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE). Results indicated that the average annual crop yield and actual evapotranspiration estimations were quite satisfactory. On a monthly basis, the values of NSE were 0.90 (calibration) and 0.80 (validation) indicating that the modified model could reproduce accurately the observed streamflow. The TSS losses were also satisfactorily estimated (NSE = 0.72 and 0.52 for the calibration and validation steps). The monthly temporal patterns and all the statistical parameters indicated that the modified SWAT-IRRIG model adequately predicted the total phosphorus (TP) loading. Therefore, the model could be used to assess the impacts of different best management practices on nonpoint phosphorus losses in irrigated systems.

  8. Evaluating the Efficiency of a Multi-core Aware Multi-objective Optimization Tool for Calibrating the SWAT Model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, X. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Izaurralde, R. C. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zong, Z. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Zhao, K. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States); Thomson, A. M. [Pacific Northwest National Lab. (PNNL), Richland, WA (United States)

    2012-08-20

    The efficiency of calibrating physically-based complex hydrologic models is a major concern in the application of those models to understand and manage natural and human activities that affect watershed systems. In this study, we developed a multi-core aware multi-objective evolutionary optimization algorithm (MAMEOA) to improve the efficiency of calibrating a worldwide used watershed model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)). The test results show that MAMEOA can save about 1-9%, 26-51%, and 39-56% time consumed by calibrating SWAT as compared with sequential method by using dual-core, quad-core, and eight-core machines, respectively. Potential and limitations of MAMEOA for calibrating SWAT are discussed. MAMEOA is open source software.

  9. Value of using remotely sensed evapotranspiration for SWAT model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrologic models are useful management tools for assessing water resources solutions and estimating the potential impact of climate variation scenarios. A comprehensive understanding of the water budget components and especially the evapotranspiration (ET) is critical and often overlooked for adeq...

  10. Remote sensing estimation of evapotranspiration for SWAT Model Calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrological models are used to assess many water resource problems from water quantity to water quality issues. The accurate assessment of the water budget, primarily the influence of precipitation and evapotranspiration (ET), is a critical first-step evaluation, which is often overlooked in hydro...

  11. Automating calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis of complex models using the R package Flexible Modeling Environment (FME): SWAT as an example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Liu, S.

    2012-01-01

    Parameter optimization and uncertainty issues are a great challenge for the application of large environmental models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which is a physically-based hydrological model for simulating water and nutrient cycles at the watershed scale. In this study, we present a comprehensive modeling environment for SWAT, including automated calibration, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis capabilities through integration with the R package Flexible Modeling Environment (FME). To address challenges (e.g., calling the model in R and transferring variables between Fortran and R) in developing such a two-language coupling framework, 1) we converted the Fortran-based SWAT model to an R function (R-SWAT) using the RFortran platform, and alternatively 2) we compiled SWAT as a Dynamic Link Library (DLL). We then wrapped SWAT (via R-SWAT) with FME to perform complex applications including parameter identifiability, inverse modeling, and sensitivity and uncertainty analysis in the R environment. The final R-SWAT-FME framework has the following key functionalities: automatic initialization of R, running Fortran-based SWAT and R commands in parallel, transferring parameters and model output between SWAT and R, and inverse modeling with visualization. To examine this framework and demonstrate how it works, a case study simulating streamflow in the Cedar River Basin in Iowa in the United Sates was used, and we compared it with the built-in auto-calibration tool of SWAT in parameter optimization. Results indicate that both methods performed well and similarly in searching a set of optimal parameters. Nonetheless, the R-SWAT-FME is more attractive due to its instant visualization, and potential to take advantage of other R packages (e.g., inverse modeling and statistical graphics). The methods presented in the paper are readily adaptable to other model applications that require capability for automated calibration, and sensitivity and uncertainty

  12. SWAT application in intensive irrigation systems: Model modification, calibration and validation

    OpenAIRE

    Dechmi, Farida; Burguete, Javier; Skhiri, Ahmed

    2012-01-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a well established, distributed, eco-hydrologic model. However, using the study case of an agricultural intensive irrigated watershed, it was shown that all the model versions are not able to appropriately reproduce the total streamflow in such system when the irrigation source is outside the watershed. The objective of this study was to modify the SWAT2005 version for correctly simulating the main hydrological processes. Crop yield, total streamfl...

  13. Watershed Modeling with ArcSWAT and SUFI2 In Cisadane Catchment Area: Calibration and Validation of River Flow Prediction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Iwan Ridwansyah

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Increasing of natural resources utilization as a result of population growth and economic development has caused severe damage on the watershed. The impacts of natural disasters such as floods, landslides and droughts become more frequent. Cisadane Catchment Area is one of 108 priority watershed in Indonesia. SWAT is currently applied world wide and considered as a versatile model that can be used to integrate multiple environmental processes, which support more effective watershed management and the development of better informed policy decision. The objective of this study is to examine the applicability of SWAT model for modeling mountainous catchments, focusing on Cisadane catchment Area in west Java Province, Indonesia. The SWAT model simulation was done for the periods of 2005 – 2010 while it used landuse information in 2009. Methods of Sequential Uncertainty Fitting ver. 2 (SUFI2 and combine with manual calibration were used in this study to calibrate a rainfall-runoff. The Calibration is done on 2007 and the validation on 2009, the R2 and Nash Sutchliffe Efficiency (NSE of the calibration were 0.71 and 0.72 respectively and the validation are 0.708 and 0.7 respectively. The monthly average of surface runoff and total water yield from the simulation were 27.7 mm and 2718.4 mm respectively. This study showed SWAT model can be a potential monitoring tool especially for watersheds in Cisadane Catchment Area or in the tropical regions. The model can be used for another purpose, especially in watershed management.

  14. Simultaneous calibration of surface flow and baseflow simulations: A revisit of the SWAT model calibration framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accurate analysis of water flow pathways from rainfall to streams is critical for simulating water use, climate change impact, and contaminant transport. In this study, we developed a new scheme to simultaneously calibrate surface flow (SF) and baseflow (BF) simulations of Soil and Water Assessment ...

  15. Validation of SWAT+ at field level and comparison with previous SWAT models in simulating hydrologic quantity

    Science.gov (United States)

    GAO, J.; White, M. J.; Bieger, K.; Yen, H.; Arnold, J. G.

    2017-12-01

    Over the past 20 years, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been adopted by many researches to assess water quantity and quality in watersheds around the world. As the demand increases in facilitating model support, maintenance, and future development, the SWAT source code and data have undergone major modifications over the past few years. To make the model more flexible in terms of interactions of spatial units and processes occurring in watersheds, a completely revised version of SWAT (SWAT+) was developed to improve SWAT's ability in water resource modelling and management. There are only several applications of SWAT+ in large watersheds, however, no study pays attention to validate the new model at field level and assess its performance. To test the basic hydrologic function of SWAT+, it was implemented in five field cases across five states in the U.S. and compared the SWAT+ created results with that from the previous models at the same fields. Additionally, an automatic calibration tool was used to test which model is easier to be calibrated well in a limited number of parameter adjustments. The goal of the study was to evaluate the performance of SWAT+ in simulating stream flow on field level at different geographical locations. The results demonstrate that SWAT+ demonstrated similar performance with previous SWAT model, but the flexibility offered by SWAT+ via the connection of different spatial objects can result in a more accurate simulation of hydrological processes in spatial, especially for watershed with artificial facilities. Autocalibration shows that SWAT+ is much easier to obtain a satisfied result compared with the previous SWAT. Although many capabilities have already been enhanced in SWAT+, there exist inaccuracies in simulation. This insufficiency will be improved with advancements in scientific knowledge on hydrologic process in specific watersheds. Currently, SWAT+ is prerelease, and any errors are being addressed.

  16. Improving SWAT model prediction using an upgraded denitrification scheme and constrained auto calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    The reliability of common calibration practices for process based water quality models has recently been questioned. A so-called “adequately calibrated model” may contain input errors not readily identifiable by model users, or may not realistically represent intra-watershed responses. These short...

  17. Calibration of spatially distributed hydrological processes and model parameters in SWAT using remote sensing data and an auto-calibration procedure : A case study in a Vietnamese river basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hà, T.L.; Bastiaanssen, W.G.M.; van Griensven, Ann; Van Dijk, Albert I J M; Senay, Gabriel B.

    2018-01-01

    In this paper, evapotranspiration (ET) and leaf area index (LAI) were used to calibrate the SWAT model, whereas remotely sensed precipitation and other climatic parameters were used as forcing data for the 6300 km2 Day Basin, a tributary of the Red River in Vietnam. The efficacy of the Sequential

  18. Modeling Agricultural Watersheds with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Calibration and Validation with a Novel Procedure for Spatially Explicit HRUs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teshager, Awoke Dagnew; Gassman, Philip W; Secchi, Silvia; Schoof, Justin T; Misgna, Girmaye

    2016-04-01

    Applications of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model typically involve delineation of a watershed into subwatersheds/subbasins that are then further subdivided into hydrologic response units (HRUs) which are homogeneous areas of aggregated soil, landuse, and slope and are the smallest modeling units used within the model. In a given standard SWAT application, multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) in a subbasin are usually aggregated into a single HRU feature. In other words, the standard version of the model combines multiple potential HRUs (farm fields) with the same landuse/landcover, soil, and slope, but located at different places of a subbasin (spatially non-unique), and considers them as one HRU. In this study, ArcGIS pre-processing procedures were developed to spatially define a one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs (spatially unique HRUs) within a subbasin prior to SWAT simulations to facilitate input processing, input/output mapping, and further analysis at the individual farm field level. Model input data such as landuse/landcover (LULC), soil, crop rotation, and other management data were processed through these HRUs. The SWAT model was then calibrated/validated for Raccoon River watershed in Iowa for 2002-2010 and Big Creek River watershed in Illinois for 2000-2003. SWAT was able to replicate annual, monthly, and daily streamflow, as well as sediment, nitrate and mineral phosphorous within recommended accuracy in most cases. The one-to-one match between farm fields and HRUs created and used in this study is a first step in performing LULC change, climate change impact, and other analyses in a more spatially explicit manner.

  19. Calibration and validation of SWAT model for estimating water balance and nitrogen losses in a small agricultural watershed in central Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smarzyńska Karolina

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT ver. 2005 was applied to study water balance and nitrogen load pathways in a small agricultural watershed in the lowlands of central Poland. The natural flow regime of the Zgłowiączka River was strongly modified by human activity (deforestation and installation of a subsurface drainage system to facilitate stable crop production. SWAT was calibrated for daily and monthly discharge and monthly nitrate nitrogen load. Model efficiency was tested using manual techniques (subjective and evaluation statistics (objective. Values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, coefficient of determination (R2 and percentage of bias for daily/monthly discharge simulations and monthly load indicated good or very good fit of simulated discharge and nitrate nitrogen load to the observed data set. Model precision and accuracy of fit was proved in validation. The calibrated and validated SWAT was used to assess water balance and nitrogen fluxes in the watershed. According to the results, the share of tile drainage in water yield is equal to 78%. The model analysis indicated the most significant pathway of NO3-N to surface waters in the study area, namely the tile drainage combined with lateral flow. Its share in total NO3-N load amounted to 89%. Identification of nitrogen fluxes in the watershed is crucial for decision makers in order to manage water resources and to implement the most effective measures to limit diffuse pollution from arable land to surface waters.

  20. How to constrain multi-objective calibrations of the SWAT model using water balance components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Automated procedures are often used to provide adequate fits between hydrologic model estimates and observed data. While the models may provide good fits based upon numeric criteria, they may still not accurately represent the basic hydrologic characteristics of the represented watershed. Here we ...

  1. Guidelines for using sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration tools for multi-gage or multi-step calibration in SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autocalibration of a water quality model such as SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) can be a powerful, labor-saving tool. When multi-gage or multi-pollutant calibration is desired, autocalibration is essential because the time involved in manual calibration becomes prohibitive. The ArcSWAT Interf...

  2. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model for predicting daily ET over irrigated crops in the Texas High Plains using lysimetric data

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a widely used watershed model for simulating stream flow, overland flow, sediment, pesticide, and bacterial loading in response to management practices. All SWAT processes are directly dependent upon the accurate representation of hydrology. Evapotranspiratio...

  3. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model for predicting daily ET for irrigated crops in the Texas High Plains using lysimetric data

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been used to assess the impacts of alternative agricultural management practices on non-point source pollution in watersheds of various topography and scale throughout the world. Water balance is the driving force behind all processes of SWAT, as i...

  4. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

    2015-05-01

    A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

  5. Multi-gauge Calibration for modeling the Semi-Arid Santa Cruz Watershed in Arizona-Mexico Border Area Using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niraula, Rewati; Norman, Laura A.; Meixner, Thomas; Callegary, James B.

    2012-01-01

    In most watershed-modeling studies, flow is calibrated at one monitoring site, usually at the watershed outlet. Like many arid and semi-arid watersheds, the main reach of the Santa Cruz watershed, located on the Arizona-Mexico border, is discontinuous for most of the year except during large flood events, and therefore the flow characteristics at the outlet do not represent the entire watershed. Calibration is required at multiple locations along the Santa Cruz River to improve model reliability. The objective of this study was to best portray surface water flow in this semiarid watershed and evaluate the effect of multi-gage calibration on flow predictions. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated at seven monitoring stations, which improved model performance and increased the reliability of flow, in the Santa Cruz watershed. The most sensitive parameters to affect flow were found to be curve number (CN2), soil evaporation and compensation coefficient (ESCO), threshold water depth in shallow aquifer for return flow to occur (GWQMN), base flow alpha factor (Alpha_Bf), and effective hydraulic conductivity of the soil layer (Ch_K2). In comparison, when the model was established with a single calibration at the watershed outlet, flow predictions at other monitoring gages were inaccurate. This study emphasizes the importance of multi-gage calibration to develop a reliable watershed model in arid and semiarid environments. The developed model, with further calibration of water quality parameters will be an integral part of the Santa Cruz Watershed Ecosystem Portfolio Model (SCWEPM), an online decision support tool, to assess the impacts of climate change and urban growth in the Santa Cruz watershed.

  6. Hydrology and sediment yield calibration for the Barasona reservoir catchment (Spain) using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazón, Leticia; Navas, Ana

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological and soil erosion models, as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), have become very useful tools and increasingly serve as vital components of integrated environmental assessments that provide information outside of direct field experiments and causal observation. The purpose of this study was to improve the calibration of SWAT model to use it in an alpine catchment as a simulator of processes related to water quality and soil erosion. SWAT is spatially semi-distributed, agro-hydrological model that operates on a daily time step (as a minimum) at basin scale. It is designed to predict the impact of management on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in ungaged catchments. SWAT provides physically based algorithms as an option to define many of the important components of the hydrologic cycle. The input requirements of the model are used to describe the climate, soil properties, topography, vegetation, and land management practices. SWAT analyzes small or large catchments by discretising into sub-basins, which are then further subdivided into hydrological response units (HRUs) with homogeneous land use, soil type and slope. SWAT model (SWAT2009) coupled with a GIS interface (ArcSWAT), was applied to the Barasona reservoir catchment located in the central Spanish Pyrenees. The 1509 km2 agro-forestry catchment presents a mountain type climate, an altitudinal range close to 3000 meters and a precipitation variation close to 1000 mm/km. The mountainous characteristics of the catchment, in addition to the scarcity of climate data in the region, require specific calibration for some processes. Snowfall and snowmelt are significant processes in the hydrologic regime of the area and were calibrated in a previous work. In this work some of the challenges of the catchment to model with SWAT which affected the hydrology and the sediment yield simulation were performed as improvement of the previous calibration. Two reservoirs, a karst system which

  7. Calibration of Spatially Distributed Hydrological Processes and Model Parameters in SWAT Using Remote Sensing Data and an Auto-Calibration Procedure: A Case Study in a Vietnamese River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Thanh Ha

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, evapotranspiration (ET and leaf area index (LAI were used to calibrate the SWAT model, whereas remotely sensed precipitation and other climatic parameters were used as forcing data for the 6300 km2 Day Basin, a tributary of the Red River in Vietnam. The efficacy of the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2 parameter sensitivity and optimization model was tested with area specific remote sensing input parameters for every Hydrological Response Units (HRU, rather than with measurements of river flow representing a large set of HRUs, i.e., a bulk calibration. Simulated monthly ET correlations with remote sensing estimates showed an R2 = 0.71, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE = 0.65, and Kling Gupta Efficiency KGE = 0.80 while monthly LAI showed correlations of R2 = 0.59, NSE = 0.57 and KGE = 0.83 over a five-year validation period. Accumulated modelled ET over the 5-year calibration period amounted to 5713 mm compared to 6015 mm of remotely sensed ET, yielding a difference of 302 mm (5.3%. The monthly flow at two flow measurement stations were adequately estimated (R2 = 0.78 and 0.55, NSE = 0.71 and 0.63, KGE = 0.59 and 0.75 for Phu Ly and Ninh Binh, respectively. This outcome demonstrates the capability of SWAT model to obtain spatial and accurate simulation of eco-hydrological processes, also when rivers are ungauged and the water withdrawal system is complex.

  8. Calibration of a Field-Scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Model with Field Placement of Best Management Practices in Alger Creek, Michigan

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    Katherine R. Merriman

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Subwatersheds within the Great Lakes “Priority Watersheds” were targeted by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI to determine the effectiveness of the various best management practices (BMPs from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP Database. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model is created for Alger Creek, a 50 km2 tributary watershed to the Saginaw River in Michigan. Monthly calibration yielded very good Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE ratings for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP, dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP, and total nitrogen (TN (0.90, 0.79, 0.87, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively, and satisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.51. Two-year validation results in at least satisfactory NSE ratings for flow, sediment, TP, DRP, and TN (0.83, 0.54, 0.73, 0.53, and 0.60, respectively, and unsatisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.28. The model estimates the effect of BMPs at the field and watershed scales. At the field-scale, the most effective single practice at reducing sediment, TP, and DRP is no-tillage followed by cover crops (CC; CC are the most effective single practice at reducing nitrate. The most effective BMP combinations include filter strips, which can have a sizable effect on reducing sediment and phosphorus loads. At the watershed scale, model results indicate current NCP BMPs result in minimal sediment and nutrient reductions (<10%.

  9. Calibration of a field-scale Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model with field placement of best management practices in Alger Creek, Michigan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Merriman-Hoehne, Katherine R.; Russell, Amy M.; Rachol, Cynthia M.; Daggupati, Prasad; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Hayhurst, Brett A.; Stuntebeck, Todd D.

    2018-01-01

    Subwatersheds within the Great Lakes “Priority Watersheds” were targeted by the Great Lakes Restoration Initiative (GLRI) to determine the effectiveness of the various best management practices (BMPs) from the U.S. Department of Agriculture-Natural Resources Conservation Service National Conservation Planning (NCP) Database. A Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is created for Alger Creek, a 50 km2 tributary watershed to the Saginaw River in Michigan. Monthly calibration yielded very good Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) ratings for flow, sediment, total phosphorus (TP), dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP), and total nitrogen (TN) (0.90, 0.79, 0.87, 0.88, and 0.77, respectively), and satisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.51). Two-year validation results in at least satisfactory NSE ratings for flow, sediment, TP, DRP, and TN (0.83, 0.54, 0.73, 0.53, and 0.60, respectively), and unsatisfactory NSE rating for nitrate (0.28). The model estimates the effect of BMPs at the field and watershed scales. At the field-scale, the most effective single practice at reducing sediment, TP, and DRP is no-tillage followed by cover crops (CC); CC are the most effective single practice at reducing nitrate. The most effective BMP combinations include filter strips, which can have a sizable effect on reducing sediment and phosphorus loads. At the watershed scale, model results indicate current NCP BMPs result in minimal sediment and nutrient reductions (<10%).

  10. Evaluation of best management practices under intensive irrigation using SWAT model

    OpenAIRE

    Dechmi, Farida; Skhiri, Ahmed

    2013-01-01

    Land management practices such as conservation tillage and optimum irrigation are routinely used to reduce non-point source pollution and improve water quality. The calibrated and validated SWAT-IRRIG model is the first modified SWAT version that reproduces well the irrigation return flows (IRF) when the irrigation source is outside of the watershed. The application of this SWAT version in intensive irrigated systems permits to better evaluate the best management practices (BMPs) in such syst...

  11. Slope effects on SWAT modeling in a mountainous basin

    OpenAIRE

    Yacoub López, Cristina; Pérez Foguet, Agustí

    2013-01-01

    The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a distributed basin model that includes the option of defining spatial discretization in terms of terrain slope. Influence of terrain slope in runoff results from mountain basins is a determining factor in its simulation results; however, its use as a criterion for basin discretization and for the parameter calibration has not yet been analyzed. In this study, this influence is analyzed for calibrations using two different cases. Ten discretization...

  12. Hydrological simulation in a basin of typical tropical climate and soil using the SWAT model part I: Calibration and validation tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donizete dos R. Pereira

    2016-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The SWAT model was qualified for simulating the Pomba River sub-basin in the sites where rainfall representation was reasonable to good. The model can be used in the simulation of maximum, average and minimum annual daily streamflow based on the paired t-test, contributing with the water resources management of region, although the model still needs to be improved, mainly in the representativeness of rainfall, to give better estimates of extreme values.

  13. A GUIDED SWAT MODEL APPLICATION ON SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING IN PANGANI RIVER BASIN: LESSONS LEARNT

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    Preksedis Marco Ndomba

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977–1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977–1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969–2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  14. A GUIDED SWAT MODEL APPLICATION ON SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING IN PANGANI RIVER BASIN: LESSONS LEARNT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Preksedis M. Ndomba

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977¿1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977-1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969-2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  15. A fully integrated SWAT-MODFLOW hydrologic model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and MODFLOW models are being used worldwide for managing surface and groundwater water resources. The SWAT models hydrological processes occurring at the surface including shallow aquifers, while MODFLOW simulate groundwater processes. However, neither SWAT ...

  16. SWAT Check: A Screening Tool to Assist Users in the Identification of Potential Model Application Problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    White, Michael J; Harmel, R Daren; Arnold, Jeff G; Williams, Jimmy R

    2014-01-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a basin-scale hydrologic model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture Agricultural Research Service. SWAT's broad applicability, user-friendly model interfaces, and automatic calibration software have led to a rapid increase in the number of new users. These advancements also allow less experienced users to conduct SWAT modeling applications. In particular, the use of automated calibration software may produce simulated values that appear appropriate because they adequately mimic measured data used in calibration and validation. Autocalibrated model applications (and often those of unexperienced modelers) may contain input data errors and inappropriate parameter adjustments not readily identified by users or the autocalibration software. The objective of this research was to develop a program to assist users in the identification of potential model application problems. The resulting "SWAT Check" is a stand-alone Microsoft Windows program that (i) reads selected SWAT output and alerts users of values outside the typical range; (ii) creates process-based figures for visualization of the appropriateness of output values, including important outputs that are commonly ignored; and (iii) detects and alerts users of common model application errors. By alerting users to potential model application problems, this software should assist the SWAT community in developing more reliable modeling applications. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. Parameterization and Uncertainty Analysis of SWAT model in Hydrological Simulation of Chaohe River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jie, M.; Zhang, J.; Guo, B. B.

    2017-12-01

    As a typical distributed hydrological model, the SWAT model also has a challenge in calibrating parameters and analysis their uncertainty. This paper chooses the Chaohe River Basin China as the study area, through the establishment of the SWAT model, loading the DEM data of the Chaohe river basin, the watershed is automatically divided into several sub-basins. Analyzing the land use, soil and slope which are on the basis of the sub-basins and calculating the hydrological response unit (HRU) of the study area, after running SWAT model, the runoff simulation values in the watershed are obtained. On this basis, using weather data, known daily runoff of three hydrological stations, combined with the SWAT-CUP automatic program and the manual adjustment method are used to analyze the multi-site calibration of the model parameters. Furthermore, the GLUE algorithm is used to analyze the parameters uncertainty of the SWAT model. Through the sensitivity analysis, calibration and uncertainty study of SWAT, the results indicate that the parameterization of the hydrological characteristics of the Chaohe river is successful and feasible which can be used to simulate the Chaohe river basin.

  18. PEMODELAN DAERAH TANGKAPAN AIR WADUK KELILING DENGAN MODEL SWAT (Keliling Reservoir Catchment Area Modeling Using SWAT Model

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    Teuku Ferijal

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available This study aimed to model watershed area of Keliling Reservoir using SWAT model. The reservoir is located in Aceh Besar District, Province of Aceh. The model was setup using 90m x 90m digital elevation model, land use data extracted from remote sensing data and soil characteristic obtained from laboratory analysis on soil samples. Model was calibrated using observed daily reservoir volume and the model performance was analyzed using RMSE-observations standard deviation ratio (RSR, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE and percent bias (PBIAS. The model delineated the study area into 3,448 Ha having 13 subwatersheds and 76 land units (HRUs. The watershed is mostly covered by forest (53% and grassland (31%. The analysis revealed the 10 most sensitive parameters i.e. GW_DELAY, CN2, REVAPMN, ALPHA_BF, SOL_AWC, GW_REVAP, GWQMN, CH_K2 and ESCO. Model performances were categorized into very good for monthly reservoir volume with ENS 0.95, RSR 0.23, and PBIAS 2.97. The model performance decreased when it used to analyze daily reservoir inflow with ENS 0.55, RSR 0.67, and PBIAS 3.46. Keywords: Keliling Reservoir, SWAT, Watershed   ABSTRAK Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk untuk memodelkan daerah tangkapan air Waduk Keliling dengan menggunakan Model SWAT. Waduk Keliling terletak di Kabupaten Aceh Besar, Propinsi Aceh. Dalam penelitian ini Model SWAT dikembangkan berdasarkan data digital elevasi model resolusi 90 m x90 m, tata guna lahan yang diperoleh dari intepretasi citra satelit dan data soil dari hasil analisa sampel tanah yang diperoleh di daerah penelitian. Model dikalibrasi dengan data volume waduk dan kinerja model dianalisa menggunakan parameter rasio akar rata-rata kuadrat error dan standard deviasi observasi (RSR, efesiensi Nash-Sutcliffe (NSE dan persentase bias (PBIAS. Hasil deleniasi untuk daerah penelitian menghasilkan suatu DAS dengan luas 3,448 Ha dan memiliki 13 Sub DAS yang dikelompokkan menjadi 76 unit lahan. Sebagian besar wilayah study

  19. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

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    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  20. Simulation of agricultural non-point source pollution in Xichuan by using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xing, Linan; Zuo, Jiane; Liu, Fenglin; Zhang, Xiaohui; Cao, Qiguang

    2018-02-01

    This paper evaluated the applicability of using SWAT to access agricultural non-point source pollution in Xichuan area. In order to build the model, DEM, soil sort and land use map, climate monitoring data were collected as basic database. The SWAT model was calibrated and validated for the SWAT was carried out using streamflow, suspended solids, total phosphorus and total nitrogen records from 2009 to 2011. Errors, coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were considered to evaluate the applicability. The coefficient of determination were 0.96, 0.66, 0.55 and 0.66 for streamflow, SS, TN, and TP, respectively. Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient were 0.93, 0.5, 0.52 and 0.63, respectively. The results all meet the requirements. It suggested that the SWAT model can simulate the study area.

  1. Assessing Thermally Stressful Events in a Rhode Island Coldwater Fish Habitat Using the SWAT Model

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    Britta Chambers

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available It has become increasingly important to recognize historical water quality trends so that the future impacts of climate change may be better understood. Climate studies have suggested that inland stream temperatures and average streamflow will increase over the next century in New England, thereby putting aquatic species sustained by coldwater habitats at risk. In this study we evaluated two different approaches for modeling historical streamflow and stream temperature in a Rhode Island, USA, watershed with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, using (i original SWAT and (ii SWAT plus a hydroclimatological model component that considers both hydrological inputs and air temperature. Based on daily calibration results with six years of measured streamflow and four years of stream temperature data, we examined occurrences of stressful conditions for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis using the hydroclimatological model. SWAT with the hydroclimatological component improved modestly during calibration (NSE of 0.93, R2 of 0.95 compared to the original SWAT (NSE of 0.83, R2 of 0.93. Between 1980–2009, the number of stressful events, a moment in time where high or low flows occur simultaneously with stream temperatures exceeding 21 °C, increased by 55% and average streamflow increased by 60%. This study supports using the hydroclimatological SWAT component and provides an example method for assessing stressful conditions in southern New England’s coldwater habitats.

  2. A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference

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    Karim C. Abbaspour

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Application of integrated hydrological models to manage a watershed’s water resources are increasingly finding their way into the decision-making processes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is a multi-process model integrating hydrology, ecology, agriculture, and water quality. SWAT is a continuation of nearly 40 years of modeling efforts conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS. A large number of SWAT-related papers have appeared in ISI journals, building a world-wide consensus around the model’s stability and usefulness. The current issue is a collection of the latest research using SWAT as the modeling tool. Most models must undergo calibration/validation and uncertainty analysis. Unfortunately, these sciences are not formal subjects of teaching in most universities and the students are often left to their own resources to calibrate their model. In this paper, we focus on calibration and uncertainty analysis highlighting some serious issues in the calibration of distributed models. A protocol for calibration is also highlighted to guide the users to obtain better modeling results. Finally, a summary of the papers published in this special issue is provided in the Appendix.

  3. Comparison of HSPF and SWAT models performance for runoff and sediment yield prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Im, Sangjun; Brannan, Kevin M; Mostaghimi, Saied; Kim, Sang Min

    2007-09-01

    A watershed model can be used to better understand the relationship between land use activities and hydrologic/water quality processes that occur within a watershed. The physically based, distributed parameter model (SWAT) and a conceptual, lumped parameter model (HSPF), were selected and their performance were compared in simulating runoff and sediment yields from the Polecat Creek watershed in Virginia, which is 12,048 ha in size. A monitoring project was conducted in Polecat Creek watershed during the period of October 1994 to June 2000. The observed data (stream flow and sediment yield) from the monitoring project was used in the calibration/validations of the models. The period of September 1996 to June 2000 was used for the calibration and October 1994 to December 1995 was used for the validation of the models. The outputs from the models were compared to the observed data at several sub-watershed outlets and at the watershed outlet of the Polecat Creek watershed. The results indicated that both models were generally able to simulate stream flow and sediment yields well during both the calibration/validation periods. For annual and monthly loads, HSPF simulated hydrologic and sediment yield more accurately than SWAT at all monitoring sites within the watershed. The results of this study indicate that both the SWAT and HSPF watershed models performed sufficiently well in the simulation of stream flow and sediment yield with HSPF performing moderately better than SWAT for simulation time-steps greater than a month.

  4. Hydrological modeling of the Simly Dam watershed (Pakistan using GIS and SWAT model

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    Shimaa M. Ghoraba

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Modern mathematical models have been developed for studying the complex hydrological processes of a watershed and their direct relation to weather, topography, geology and land use. In this study the hydrology of Simly Dam watershed located in Saon River basin at the north-east of Islamabad is modeled, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. It aims to simulate the stream flow, establish the water balance and estimate the monthly volume inflow to Simly Dam in order to help the managers to plan and handle this important reservoir. The ArcSWAT interface implemented in the ArcGIS software was used to delineate the study area and its sub-components, combine the data layers and edit the model database. The model was calibrated from 1990 to 2001 and evaluated from 2002 to 2011. Based on four recommended statistical coefficients, the evaluation indicates a good performance for both calibration and validation periods and acceptable agreement between measured and simulated values of both annual and monthly scale discharge. The water balance components were correctly estimated and the Simly Dam inflow was successfully reproduced with Coefficient of Determination (R2 of 0.75. These results revealed that if properly calibrated, SWAT model can be used efficiently in semi-arid regions to support water management policies.

  5. Modeling riverine nitrate export from an East-Central Illinois watershed using SWAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, X; McIsaac, G F; David, M B; Louwers, C A L

    2007-01-01

    Reliable water quality models are needed to forecast the water quality consequences of different agricultural nutrient management scenarios. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), version 2000, was applied to simulate streamflow, riverine nitrate (NO(3)) export, crop yield, and watershed nitrogen (N) budgets in the upper Embarras River (UER) watershed in east-central Illinois, which has extensive maize-soybean cultivation, large N fertilizer input, and extensive tile drainage. During the calibration (1994-2002) and validation (1985-1993) periods, SWAT simulated monthly and annual stream flows with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients (E) ranging from 0.67 to 0.94 and R(2) from 0.75 to 0.95. For monthly and annual NO(3) loads, E ranged from -0.16 to 0.45 and R(2) from 0.36 to 0.74. Annual maize and soybean yields were simulated with relative errors ranging from -10 to 6%. The model was then used to predict the changes in NO(3) output with N fertilizer application rates 10 to 50% lower than original application rates in UER. The calibrated SWAT predicted a 10 to 43% decrease in NO(3) export from UER and a 6 to 38% reduction in maize yield in response to the reduction in N fertilizer. The SWAT model markedly overestimated NO(3) export during major wet periods. Moreover, SWAT estimated soybean N fixation rates considerably greater than literature values, and some simulated changes in the N cycle in response to fertilizer reduction seemed to be unrealistic. Improving these aspects of SWAT could lead to more reliable predictions in the water quality outcomes of nutrient management practices in tile-drained watersheds.

  6. Applications of the SWAT Model Special Section: Overview and Insights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassman, Philip W; Sadeghi, Ali M; Srinivasan, Raghavan

    2014-01-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has emerged as one of the most widely used water quality watershed- and river basin-scale models worldwide, applied extensively for a broad range of hydrologic and/or environmental problems. The international use of SWAT can be attributed to its flexibility in addressing water resource problems, extensive networking via dozens of training workshops and the several international conferences that have been held during the past decade, comprehensive online documentation and supporting software, and an open source code that can be adapted by model users for specific application needs. The catalyst for this special collection of papers was the 2011 International SWAT Conference & Workshops held in Toledo, Spain, which featured over 160 scientific presentations representing SWAT applications in 37 countries. This special collection presents 22 specific SWAT-related studies, most of which were presented at the 2011 SWAT Conference; it represents SWAT applications on five different continents, with the majority of studies being conducted in Europe and North America. The papers cover a variety of topics, including hydrologic testing at a wide range of watershed scales, transport of pollutants in northern European lowland watersheds, data input and routing method effects on sediment transport, development and testing of potential new model algorithms, and description and testing of supporting software. In this introduction to the special section, we provide a synthesis of these studies within four main categories: (i) hydrologic foundations, (ii) sediment transport and routing analyses, (iii) nutrient and pesticide transport, and (iv) scenario analyses. We conclude with a brief summary of key SWAT research and development needs. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  7. Analisis Debit Sungai Dengan Menggunakan Model SWAT pada DAS Cipasauran, Banten

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    Maulana Ibrahim Rau

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available Total water demand at non industrial and industrial region in Cilegon is increasing. With its water production capacity of 2,000 l/s, PT Krakatau Tirta Industri cannot fulfill the amount number of demand from the industrial and domestic sectors at Cilegon. To cover the shortage of water supply of ±600 l/s, PT KTI requires taking water from Cipasauran Watershed. The objective of this study was to analyze river discharge of Cipasauran Watershed using SWAT model. Input data such as soil characteristics, climate data, landuse, and hydrology data at the area of the watershed were gathered and put at the data input file. In SWAT simulation, 4 processes were done, i.e. watershed delineation, hydrological response unit (HRU forming, data process and SWAT simulation, and visualization process. The result showed that the daily and monthly calibration process crossed 84% and 83% with the 95PPU area, with daily and monthly p-factor value of 0.84 and 0.83. Thus, calibrated model result was valid, though R2 and NS value were not satisfied. Using the validated SWAT model, the daily discharge in Cipasauran Watershed was about 0 - 3.309 m3/s, whereas the monthly discharge was 0.648 - 3.266m3/s. This showed that daily and monthly PT KTI’s water demand of 0.6 m3/s were fulfilled about 98.22% and 100%. Within the future time, the SWAT model could be potentially used as an assessment for predictive scenarios. However, to gain optimum results, well-observed and precise data is highly required, especially for such calibrations and validations.

  8. Impacts of manure application on SWAT model outputs in the Xiangxi River watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Wang, Qingrui; Xu, Fei; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia

    2017-12-01

    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been widely used to simulate agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution; however, the impacts of livestock manure application on SWAT model outputs have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to investigate the environmental effects of livestock manure application based on the SWAT model in the Xiangxi River watershed, which is one of the largest tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Three newly-built manure databases (NB) were created and applied to different subbasins based on the actual livestock manure discharging amount. The calibration and validation values of SWAT model outputs obtained from the NB manure application and the original mixed (OM) manure were compared. The study results are as follows: (1) The livestock industry of Xingshan County developed quickly between 2005 and 2015. The downstream of the Xiangxi River (Huangliang, Shuiyuesi and Xiakou) had the largest livestock amount, and largely accounted for manure, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) production (>50%). (2) The NB manure application resulted in less phosphorus pollution (1686.35 kg for ORGP and 31.70 kg for MINP) than the OM manure application. Compared with the upstream, the downstream was influenced more by the manure application. (3) The SWAT results obtained from the NB manure had a better calibration and validation values than those from the OM manure. For ORGP, R2 and NSE values were 0.77 and 0.65 for the NB manure calibration; and the same values for the OM manure were 0.72 and 0.61, respectively. For MINP, R2 values were 0.65 and 0.62 for the NB manure and the OM manure, and the NSE values were 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The results indicated that the built-in fertilizer database in SWAT has its limitation because it is set up for the simulation in the USA. Thus, when livestock manure is considered in a SWAT simulation, a newly built fertilizer database needs to be set up to represent

  9. Improving the spatial representation of basin hydrology and flow processes in the SWAT model

    OpenAIRE

    Rathjens, Hendrik

    2014-01-01

    This dissertation aims at improving the spatial representation of basin hydrology and flow processes in the SWAT model. Die vorliegende Dissertation stellt die methodischen Grundlage zur räumlich differenzierten Modellierung mit dem Modell SWAT dar.

  10. Analisis Laju Sedimen DAS Serayu Hulu dengan Menggunakan Model SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nugroho Christanto

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Wilayah DAS Serayu Hulu merupakan DAS prioritas yang memerlukan langkah pengelolaan yang komprehensif. Aplikasi model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT dapat digunakan sebagai media untuk  perencanaan konservasi ataupun evaluasi respon DAS (debit aliran permukaan, sedimen dan pencemaran sungai. Tujuan utama dari penelitian ini adalah menjalankan model SWAT di DAS Serayu Hulu untuk mengetahui laju sedimen di wilayah ini. Pemodelan SWAT membutuhkan sejumlah input parameter berupa relief, tanah, tutupan lahan dan pengelolaan lahan. Pedogeomorfologi digunakan sebagai batas satuan tanah karena tidak tersedianya peta tanah di wilayah penelitian. Hasil Penerapan model SWAT di DAS Serayu Hulu menghasilkan nilai yang cukup memuaskan, hal ini ditunjukkan nilai R2 mencapai 0,94. Hasil pemodelan SWAT dengan menggunakan data selama 10 tahun (2004-2013 menunjukkan bahwa DAS Serayu Hulu memiliki rerata hasil sedimen sebesar 1.926.900 ton/tahun. Sub DAS 8,9 11, 17, 18, dan 19 merupakan penghasil sedimen tertinggi di DAS Serayu Hulu dengan hasil sedimen 43.931– 121.434 ton/ha/tahun.

  11. Pesticide modelling for a small catchment using SWAT-2000.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannan, Narayanan; White, Sue M; Worrall, Fred; Whelan, Mick J

    2006-01-01

    Pesticides in stream flow from the 142 ha Colworth catchment in Bedfordshire, UK were monitored from October 1999 to December 2000. About 47% of the catchment is tile-drained and different pesticides and cropping patterns have recently been evaluated in terms of their effect on nutrient and pesticide losses to the stream. The data from Colworth were used to test soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) 2000 predictions of pesticide concentrations at the catchment outlet. A sound model set-up to carry out pesticide modelling was created by means of hydrological modelling with proper simulation of crop growth and evapotranspiration. The pesticides terbuthylazine, terbutryn, cyanazine and bentazone were modelled. There was close agreement between SWAT-predicted pesticide concentration values and observations. Scenario trials were conducted to explore management options for reducing pesticide loads arriving at the catchment outlet. The results obtained indicate that SWAT can be used as a tool to understand pesticide behavior at the catchment scale.

  12. Introducing a new open source GIS user interface for the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a robust watershed modelling tool. It typically uses the ArcSWAT interface to create its inputs. ArcSWAT is public domain software which works in the licensed ArcGIS environment. The aim of this paper was to develop an open source user interface ...

  13. Adapting SWAT hillslope erosion model to predict sediment concentrations and yields in large Basins.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vigiak, Olga; Malagó, Anna; Bouraoui, Fayçal; Vanmaercke, Matthias; Poesen, Jean

    2015-12-15

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used worldwide for water quality assessment and planning. This paper aimed to assess and adapt SWAT hillslope sediment yield model (Modified Universal Soil Loss Equation, MUSLE) for applications in large basins, i.e. when spatial data is coarse and model units are large; and to develop a robust sediment calibration method for large regions. The Upper Danube Basin (132,000km(2)) was used as case study representative of large European Basins. The MUSLE was modified to reduce sensitivity of sediment yields to the Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU) size, and to identify appropriate algorithms for estimating hillslope length (L) and slope-length factor (LS). HRUs gross erosion was broadly calibrated against plot data and soil erosion map estimates. Next, mean annual SWAT suspended sediment concentrations (SSC, mg/L) were calibrated and validated against SSC data at 55 gauging stations (622 station-years). SWAT annual specific sediment yields in subbasin reaches (RSSY, t/km(2)/year) were compared to yields measured at 33 gauging stations (87station-years). The best SWAT configuration combined a MUSLE equation modified by the introduction of a threshold area of 0.01km(2) where L and LS were estimated with flow accumulation algorithms. For this configuration, the SSC residual interquartile was less than +/-15mg/L both for the calibration (1995-2004) and the validation (2005-2009) periods. The mean SSC percent bias for 1995-2009 was 24%. RSSY residual interquartile was within +/-10t/km(2)/year, with a mean RSSY percent bias of 12%. Residuals showed no bias with respect to drainage area, slope, or spatial distribution. The use of multiple data types at multiple sites enabled robust simulation of sediment concentrations and yields of the region. The MUSLE modifications are recommended for use in large basins. Based on SWAT simulations, we present a sediment budget for the Upper Danube Basin. Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Modeling phosphorus in the Lake Allatoona watershed using SWAT: I. Developing phosphorus parameter values.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, D E; Lin, Z; Risse, L M; Romeis, J J; Jackson, C R

    2009-01-01

    Lake Allatoona is a large reservoir north of Atlanta, GA, that drains an area of about 2870 km2 scheduled for a phosphorus (P) total maximum daily load (TMDL). The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model has been widely used for watershed-scale modeling of P, but there is little guidance on how to estimate P-related parameters, especially those related to in-stream P processes. In this paper, methods are demonstrated to individually estimate SWAT soil-related P parameters and to collectively estimate P parameters related to stream processes. Stream related parameters were obtained using the nutrient uptake length concept. In a manner similar to experiments conducted by stream ecologists, a small point source is simulated in a headwater sub-basin of the SWAT models, then the in-stream parameter values are adjusted collectively to get an uptake length of P similar to the values measured in the streams in the region. After adjusting the in-stream parameters, the P uptake length estimated in the simulations ranged from 53 to 149 km compared to uptake lengths measured by ecologists in the region of 11 to 85 km. Once the a priori P-related parameter set was developed, the SWAT models of main tributaries to Lake Allatoona were calibrated for daily transport. Models using SWAT P parameters derived from the methods in this paper outperformed models using default parameter values when predicting total P (TP) concentrations in streams during storm events and TP annual loads to Lake Allatoona.

  15. SWAT-based streamflow and embayment modeling of Karst-affected Chapel branch watershed, South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra Amatya; M. Jha; A.E. Edwards; T.M. Williams; D.R. Hitchcock

    2011-01-01

    SWAT is a GIS-based basin-scale model widely used for the characterization of hydrology and water quality of large, complex watersheds; however, SWAT has not been fully tested in watersheds with karst geomorphology and downstream reservoir-like embayment. In this study, SWAT was applied to test its ability to predict monthly streamflow dynamics for a 1,555 ha karst...

  16. Evaluation of alternative surface runoff accounting procedures using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    For surface runoff estimation in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, the curve number (CN) procedure is commonly adopted to calculate surface runoff by utilizing antecedent soil moisture condition (SCSI) in field. In the recent version of SWAT (SWAT2005), an alternative approach is ava...

  17. Simulating Landscape Sediment Transport Capacity by Using a Modified SWAT Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonumá, Nadia B; Rossi, Colleen G; Arnold, Jeffrey G; Reichert, José M; Minella, Jean P; Allen, Peter M; Volk, Martin

    2014-01-01

    Sediment delivery from hillslopes to rivers is spatially variable and may lead to long-term delays between initial erosion and related sediment yield at the watershed outlet. Consideration of spatial variability is important for developing sound strategies for water quality improvement and soil protection at the watershed scale. Hence, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was modified and tested in this study to simulate the landscape transport capacity of sediment. The study area was the steeply sloped Arroio Lino watershed in southern Brazil. Observed sediment yield data at the watershed outlet were used to calibrate and validate a modified SWAT model. For the calibration period, the modified model performed better than the unaltered SWAT2009 version; the models achieved Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values of 0.7 and -0.1, respectively. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies were less for the validation period, but the modified model's NSE was higher than the unaltered model (-1.4 and -12.1, respectively). Despite the relatively low NSE values, the results of this first test are promising because the model modifications lowered the percent bias in sediment yield from 73 to 18%. Simulation results for the modified model indicated that approximately 60% of the mobilized soil is deposited along the landscape before it reaches the river channels. This research demonstrates the modified model's ability to simulate sediment yield in watersheds with steep slopes. The results suggest that integration of the sediment deposition routine in SWAT increases accuracy in steeper areas while significantly improving its ability to predict the spatial distribution of sediment deposition areas. Further work is needed regarding (i) improved strategies for spatially distributed sediment transport measurements (for improving process knowledge and model evaluation) and (ii) extensive model tests in other well instrumented experimental watersheds with differing topographic configurations

  18. Modeling of discharge and sediment transport through the SWAT model in the basin of Harraza (Northwest of Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Faiza Hallouz

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study is to model discharge and solid erosion quantification through a small agricultural watershed by applying the SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tools on the Wadi Harraza’s basin of which is part of Wadi Cheliff’s basin, with an average altitude of 500 m, drains an area of 568 sq km. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, version 2009 model integrated with Geographic Information System (ArcGIS, version 10.0 were used to simulate the discharge and sediment concentration of Wadi Harraza’s basin for the period from 2004 to 2009. Model calibration and validation were performed for monthly time periods using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting 2 (SUFI-2, version 2 within SWAT-CUP. Our calibration and validation outputs for monthly simulation showed a good model performance for discharges. Thus the evolution of the average total annual sediment in the Wadi Harraza’s basin which will be deposited in the Wadi Cheliff, is estimated at 54.24 t ha−1. Keywords: SWAT model, Basin, Wadi Harraza, SUFI-2, Discharges, Sediment

  19. Application of the SWAT model to the Xiangjiang river watershed in subtropical central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Qiao; Li, Yong; Wang, Kelin; Wu, Jinshui

    2013-01-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to simulate the water balance in the Xiangjiang river watershed for current and planning scenarios of land uses. The model was first calibrated for the period from 1998 to 2002 and then validated for the period from 2003 to 2007 using the observed stream flow data from four monitoring gages within the watershed. The determination coefficient of linear regression of the observed and simulated monthly stream flows (R(2)) and their Nash-Sutcliffe Index (NSI) was used to evaluate model performance. All values of R(2) and NSI were above 0.8 and ranged from 0.82 to 0.92, which indicates that the SWAT model was capable of simulating the stream flow in the Xiangjiang river watershed. The calibrated and validated SWAT model was then applied to study the hydrological response of three land use change scenarios. Runoff was reduced by increasing the areas of forest and grassland while simultaneously decreasing the areas of agricultural and urban land. In the recent and future land use planning for the Xiangjiang river watershed, the hydrological effect should be considered in regional water management and erosion control.

  20. Validating soil phosphorus routines in the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phosphorus transfer from agricultural soils to surface waters is an important environmental issue. Commonly used models like SWAT have not always been updated to reflect improved understanding of soil P transformations and transfer to runoff. Our objective was to validate the ability of the P routin...

  1. Prediction of phosphorus loads in an artificially drained lowland catchment using a modified SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bauwe, Andreas; Eckhardt, Kai-Uwe; Lennartz, Bernd

    2017-04-01

    Eutrophication is still one of the main environmental problems in the Baltic Sea. Currently, agricultural diffuse sources constitute the major portion of phosphorus (P) fluxes to the Baltic Sea and have to be reduced to achieve the HELCOM targets and improve the ecological status. Eco-hydrological models are suitable tools to identify sources of nutrients and possible measures aiming at reducing nutrient loads into surface waters. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Warnow river basin (3300 km2), the second largest watershed in Germany discharging into the Baltic Sea. The Warnow river basin is located in northeastern Germany and characterized by lowlands with a high proportion of artificially drained areas. The aim of this study were (i) to estimate P loadings for individual flow fractions (point sources, surface runoff, tile flow, groundwater flow), spatially distributed on sub-basin scale. Since the official version of SWAT does not allow for the modeling of P in tile drains, we tested (ii) two different approaches of simulating P in tile drains by changing the SWAT source code. The SWAT source code was modified so that (i) the soluble P concentration of the groundwater was transferred to the tile water and (ii) the soluble P in the soil was transferred to the tiles. The SWAT model was first calibrated (2002-2011) and validated (1992-2001) for stream flow at 7 headwater catchments at a daily time scale. Based on this, the stream flow at the outlet of the Warnow river basin was simulated. Performance statistics indicated at least satisfactory model results for each sub-basin. Breaking down the discharge into flow constituents, it becomes visible that stream flow is mainly governed by groundwater and tile flow. Due to the topographic situation with gentle slopes, surface runoff played only a minor role. Results further indicate that the prediction of soluble P loads was improved by the modified SWAT versions. Major sources of

  2. Application of WRF - SWAT OpenMI 2.0 based models integration for real time hydrological modelling and forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bugaets, Andrey; Gonchukov, Leonid

    2014-05-01

    coinciding as virtual weather stations) realized as OpenMI AdaptedOutput. In order to make sure that SWAT-WRF integration technically sounds and preevaluate the impact of the climatic data resolution on the model parameters a number of test calculations were performed with different time-spatial aggregation of WRF output. Numerical experiments were carried out for the period of 2012-2013 on the Komarovka river watershed (former Primorskaya water-balance station) located in the small mountains landscapes in the western part of the Khankaiskaya plain. The watershed outlet is equipped with the automatic water level and rain gauging stations of Primorie Hydrometeorological Agency (Prigidromet http://primgidromet.ru) observation network. Spatial structure of SWAT simulation realized by ArcSWAT 2012 with 10m DEM resolution and 1:50000 soils and landuse cover. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are performed with SWAT CUP. WRF-SWAT composition is assembled in the GUI OpenMI. For the test basin in most cases the simulation results show that the predicted and measured water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement. Enforcing SWAT with WRF output avoids some semi-empirical model approximation, replaces a native weather generator for WRF forecast interval and improved upon the operational streamflow forecast. It is anticipated that leveraging direct use of the WRF variables (not only substituted standard SWAT input) will have good potential to make SWAT more physically sound.

  3. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Zarrinehrud Basin Using SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mansouri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluate impacts of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the future Using statistical model, LARS-WG, and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT. In order to the Zarrinehrud river basin, as the biggest catchment of the Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. At first, for the generation of future weather data in the basin, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then 14 models of AOGCM were applied and results of these models were downscaled using LARS-WG model in 6 synoptic stations for period of 2015 to 2030. SWAT model was used for evaluation of climate change impacts on runoff in the basin. In order to, the model was calibrated and validated using 6 gauging stations for period of 1987-2007 and the value of R2 was between 0.49 and 0.71 for calibration and between 0.54 and 0.77 for validation. Then by introducing average of downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, runoff changes of the basin were simulated during 2015-2030. Average of results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly mean of minimum and maximum temperatures will increase compared to the baseline period. Also monthly average of precipitation will decrease in spring season but will increase in summer and autumn. The results showed that in addition to the amount of precipitation, its pattern will change in the future period, too. The results of runoff simulation showed that the amount of inflow to the Zarrinehrud reservoir will reduce 28.4 percent compared to the baseline period.

  4. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis for pesticide transport in watershed-scale water quality modeling using SWAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo Yuzhou; Zhang Minghua

    2009-01-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated for hydrology conditions in an agricultural watershed of Orestimba Creek, California, and applied to simulate fate and transport of two organophosphate pesticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon. The model showed capability in evaluating pesticide fate and transport processes in agricultural fields and instream network. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis was conducted by applied stochastic SWAT simulations for pesticide distribution. Results of sensitivity analysis identified the governing processes in pesticide outputs as surface runoff, soil erosion, and sedimentation in the study area. By incorporating sensitive parameters in pesticide transport simulation, effects of structural best management practices (BMPs) in improving surface water quality were demonstrated by SWAT modeling. This study also recommends conservation practices designed to reduce field yield and in-stream transport capacity of sediment, such as filter strip, grassed waterway, crop residue management, and tailwater pond to be implemented in the Orestimba Creek watershed. - Selected structural BMPs are recommended for reducing loads of OP pesticides.

  5. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis for pesticide transport in watershed-scale water quality modeling using SWAT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Yuzhou [University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035 (China); Zhang Minghua, E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.ed [University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035 (China)

    2009-12-15

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated for hydrology conditions in an agricultural watershed of Orestimba Creek, California, and applied to simulate fate and transport of two organophosphate pesticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon. The model showed capability in evaluating pesticide fate and transport processes in agricultural fields and instream network. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis was conducted by applied stochastic SWAT simulations for pesticide distribution. Results of sensitivity analysis identified the governing processes in pesticide outputs as surface runoff, soil erosion, and sedimentation in the study area. By incorporating sensitive parameters in pesticide transport simulation, effects of structural best management practices (BMPs) in improving surface water quality were demonstrated by SWAT modeling. This study also recommends conservation practices designed to reduce field yield and in-stream transport capacity of sediment, such as filter strip, grassed waterway, crop residue management, and tailwater pond to be implemented in the Orestimba Creek watershed. - Selected structural BMPs are recommended for reducing loads of OP pesticides.

  6. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis for pesticide transport in watershed-scale water quality modeling using SWAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yuzhou; Zhang, Minghua

    2009-12-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated for hydrology conditions in an agricultural watershed of Orestimba Creek, California, and applied to simulate fate and transport of two organophosphate pesticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon. The model showed capability in evaluating pesticide fate and transport processes in agricultural fields and instream network. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis was conducted by applied stochastic SWAT simulations for pesticide distribution. Results of sensitivity analysis identified the governing processes in pesticide outputs as surface runoff, soil erosion, and sedimentation in the study area. By incorporating sensitive parameters in pesticide transport simulation, effects of structural best management practices (BMPs) in improving surface water quality were demonstrated by SWAT modeling. This study also recommends conservation practices designed to reduce field yield and in-stream transport capacity of sediment, such as filter strip, grassed waterway, crop residue management, and tailwater pond to be implemented in the Orestimba Creek watershed.

  7. Modeling nitrate-nitrogen load reduction strategies for the des moines river, iowa using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

    2009-01-01

    The Des Moines River that drains a watershed of 16,175 km2 in portions of Iowa and Minnesota is impaired for nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) due to concentrations that exceed regulatory limits for public water supplies. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to model streamflow and nitrate loads and evaluate a suite of basin-wide changes and targeting configurations to potentially reduce nitrate loads in the river. The SWAT model comprised 173 subbasins and 2,516 hydrologic response units and included point and nonpoint nitrogen sources. The model was calibrated for an 11-year period and three basin-wide and four targeting strategies were evaluated. Results indicated that nonpoint sources accounted for 95% of the total nitrate export. Reduction in fertilizer applications from 170 to 50 kg/ha achieved the 38% reduction in nitrate loads, exceeding the 34% reduction required. In terms of targeting, the most efficient load reductions occurred when fertilizer applications were reduced in subbasins nearest the watershed outlet. The greatest load reduction for the area of land treated was associated with reducing loads from 55 subbasins with the highest nitrate loads, achieving a 14% reduction in nitrate loads achieved by reducing applications on 30% of the land area. SWAT model results provide much needed guidance on how to begin implementing load reduction strategies most efficiently in the Des Moines River watershed. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  8. Modeling nitrate-nitrogen load reduction strategies for the Des Moines River, Iowa using SWAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, Keith E; Wolter, Calvin F

    2009-10-01

    The Des Moines River that drains a watershed of 16,175 km(2) in portions of Iowa and Minnesota is impaired for nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) due to concentrations that exceed regulatory limits for public water supplies. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to model streamflow and nitrate loads and evaluate a suite of basin-wide changes and targeting configurations to potentially reduce nitrate loads in the river. The SWAT model comprised 173 subbasins and 2,516 hydrologic response units and included point and nonpoint nitrogen sources. The model was calibrated for an 11-year period and three basin-wide and four targeting strategies were evaluated. Results indicated that nonpoint sources accounted for 95% of the total nitrate export. Reduction in fertilizer applications from 170 to 50 kg/ha achieved the 38% reduction in nitrate loads, exceeding the 34% reduction required. In terms of targeting, the most efficient load reductions occurred when fertilizer applications were reduced in subbasins nearest the watershed outlet. The greatest load reduction for the area of land treated was associated with reducing loads from 55 subbasins with the highest nitrate loads, achieving a 14% reduction in nitrate loads achieved by reducing applications on 30% of the land area. SWAT model results provide much needed guidance on how to begin implementing load reduction strategies most efficiently in the Des Moines River watershed.

  9. Multivariate Bias Correction Procedures for Improving Water Quality Predictions from the SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arumugam, S.; Libera, D.

    2017-12-01

    Water quality observations are usually not available on a continuous basis for longer than 1-2 years at a time over a decadal period given the labor requirements making calibrating and validating mechanistic models difficult. Further, any physical model predictions inherently have bias (i.e., under/over estimation) and require post-simulation techniques to preserve the long-term mean monthly attributes. This study suggests a multivariate bias-correction technique and compares to a common technique in improving the performance of the SWAT model in predicting daily streamflow and TN loads across the southeast based on split-sample validation. The approach is a dimension reduction technique, canonical correlation analysis (CCA) that regresses the observed multivariate attributes with the SWAT model simulated values. The common approach is a regression based technique that uses an ordinary least squares regression to adjust model values. The observed cross-correlation between loadings and streamflow is better preserved when using canonical correlation while simultaneously reducing individual biases. Additionally, canonical correlation analysis does a better job in preserving the observed joint likelihood of observed streamflow and loadings. These procedures were applied to 3 watersheds chosen from the Water Quality Network in the Southeast Region; specifically, watersheds with sufficiently large drainage areas and number of observed data points. The performance of these two approaches are compared for the observed period and over a multi-decadal period using loading estimates from the USGS LOADEST model. Lastly, the CCA technique is applied in a forecasting sense by using 1-month ahead forecasts of P & T from ECHAM4.5 as forcings in the SWAT model. Skill in using the SWAT model for forecasting loadings and streamflow at the monthly and seasonal timescale is also discussed.

  10. Using StorAge Selection Functions to Improve Simulation of Groundwater Nitrate Lag Times in the SWAT Modeling Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilusz, D. C.; Fuka, D.; Cho, C.; Ball, W. P.; Easton, Z. M.; Harman, C. J.

    2017-12-01

    Intensive agriculture and atmospheric deposition have dramatically increased the input of reactive nitrogen into many watersheds worldwide. Reactive nitrogen can leach as nitrate into groundwater, which is stored and eventually released over years to decades into surface waters, potentially degrading water quality. To simulate the fate and transport of groundwater nitrate, many researchers and practitioners use the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) or an enhanced version of SWAT that accounts for topographically-driven variable source areas (TopoSWAT). Both SWAT and TopoSWAT effectively assume that nitrate in the groundwater reservoir is well-mixed, which is known to be a poor assumption at many sites. In this study, we describe modifications to TopoSWAT that (1) relax the assumption of groundwater well-mixedness, (2) more flexibly parameterize groundwater transport as a time-varying distribution of travel times using the recently developed theory of rank StorAge Selection (rSAS) functions, and (3) allow for groundwater age to be represented by position on the hillslope or hydrological distance from the stream. The approach conceptualizes the groundwater aquifer as a population of water parcels entering as recharge with a particular nitrate concentration, aging as they move through storage, and eventually exiting as baseflow. The rSAS function selects the distribution of parcel ages that exit as baseflow based on a parameterized probability distribution; this distribution can be adjusted to preferentially select different distributions of young and old parcels in storage so as to reproduce (in principle) any form of transport. The modified TopoSWAT model (TopoSWAT+rSAS) is tested at a small agricultural catchment in the Eastern Shore, MD with an extensive hydrologic and hydrochemical data record for calibration and evaluation. The results examine (1) the sensitivity of TopoSWAT+rSAS modeling of nitrate transport to assumptions about the distribution of travel

  11. Trail Creek II: Modeling Flow and E. Coli Concentrations in a Small Urban Stream using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radcliffe, D. E.; Saintil, T.

    2017-12-01

    Pathogens are one of the leading causes of stream and river impairment in the State of Georgia. The common presence of fecal bacteria is driven by several factors including rapid population growth stressing pre-existing and ageing infrastructure, urbanization and poor planning, increase percent imperviousness, urban runoff, municipal discharges, sewage, pet/wildlife waste and leaky septic tanks. The Trail Creek watershed, located in Athens-Clarke County, Georgia covers about 33 km2. Stream segments within Trail Creek violate the GA standard due to high levels of fecal coliform bacteria. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) modeling software was used to predict E. coli bacteria concentrations during baseflow and stormflow. Census data from the county was used for human and animal population estimates and the Fecal Indicator Tool to generate the number of colony forming units of E. Coli for each source. The model was calibrated at a daily time step with one year of monitored streamflow and E. coli bacteria data using SWAT-CUP and the SUFI2 algorithm. To simulate leaking sewer lines, we added point sources in the five subbasins in the SWAT model with the greatest length of sewer line within 50 m of the stream. The flow in the point sources were set to 5% of the stream flow and the bacteria count set to that of raw sewage (30,000 cfu/100 mL). The calibrated model showed that the average load during 2003-2013 at the watershed outlet was 13 million cfu per month. Using the calibrated model, we simulated scenarios that assumed leaking sewers were repaired in one of the five subbasins with point sources. The reduction ranged from 10 to 46%, with the largest reduction in subbasin in the downtown area. Future modeling work will focus on the use of green infrastructure to address sources of bacteria.

  12. Historical Streamflow Series Analysis Applied to Furnas HPP Reservoir Watershed Using the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Viviane de Souza Dias

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Over the last few years, the operation of the Furnas Hydropower Plant (HPP reservoir, located in the Grande River Basin, has been threatened due to a significant reduction in inflow. In the region, hydrological modelling tools are being used and tested to support decision making and water sustainability. In this study, the streamflow was modelled in the area of direct influence of the Furnas HPP reservoir, and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model performance was verified for studies in the region. Analyses of sensitivity and uncertainty were undertaken using the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting algorithm (SUFI-2 with a Calibration Uncertainty Program (SWAT-CUP. The hydrological modelling, at a monthly scale, presented good results in the calibration (NS 0.86, with a slight reduction of the coefficient in the validation period (NS 0.64. The results suggested that this tool could be applied in future hydrological studies in the region of study. With the consideration that special attention should be given to the historical series used in the calibration and validation of the models. It is important to note that this region has high demands for water resources, primarily for agricultural use. Water demands must also be taken into account in future hydrological simulations. The validation of this methodology led to important contributions to the management of water resources in regions with tropical climates, whose climatological and geological reality resembles the one studied here.

  13. Transforming SWAT for continental-scale high-resolution modeling of floodplain dynamics: opportunities and challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajib, A.; Merwade, V.; Liu, Z.; Lane, C.; Golden, H. E.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Follum, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    There have been many initiatives to develop frameworks for continental-scale modeling and mapping floodplain dynamics. The choice of a model for such needs should be governed by its suitability to be executed in high performance cyber platforms, ability to integrate supporting hydraulic/hydrodynamic tools, and ability to assimilate earth observations. Furthermore, disseminating large volume of outputs for public use and interoperability with similar frameworks should be considered. Considering these factors, we have conducted a series of modeling experiments and developed a suite of cyber-enabled platforms that have transformed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) into an appropriate model for use in a continental-scale, high resolution, near real-time flood information framework. Our first experiment uses a medium size watershed in Indiana, USA and attempts burning-in a high resolution, National Hydrography Dataset Plus(NHDPlus) into the SWAT model. This is crucial with a view to make the outputs comparable with other global/national initiatives. The second experiment is built upon the first attempt to add a modified landscape representation in the model which differentiates between the upland and floodplain processes. Our third experiment involves two separate efforts: coupling SWAT with a hydrodynamic model LISFLOOD-FP and a new generation, low complexity hydraulic model AutoRoute. We have executed the prototype "loosely-coupled" models for the Upper Mississippi-Ohio River Basin in the USA, encompassing 1 million square km drainage area and nearly 0.2 million NHDPlus river reaches. The preliminary results suggest reasonable accuracy for both streamflow and flood inundation. In this presentation, we will also showcase three cyber-enabled platforms, including SWATShare to run and calibrate large scale SWAT models online using high performance computational resources, HydroGlobe to automatically extract and assimilate multiple remotely sensed earth observations in

  14. Modeling Fate and Transport of Fecal Coliform Bacteria Using SWAT 2005 (Case Study: Jajrood River Watershed, Iran)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maghrebi, M.; Tajrishy, M.

    2010-12-01

    Jajrood River watershed is one of the main drinking water resources of the capital city of Tehran, Iran. In addition it has been available as many recreational usages especially in the warm months. As a result of being located near one of the crowded cities of the world, a variety of microbial pollutions is commonly perceived in the Jajrood River. Among them, there are strong concerns about fecal coliform bacteria concentration. This article aimed to model fate and transport of fecal coliform bacteria in Jajrood River watershed using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model version 2005. Potential pollutant sources in the study area were detected and quantified for modeling purposes. In spite of being lack of knowledge about bacteria die-off rate in small river bodies, as well as in other watershed-based forms, fecal coliform bacteria die-off rates were estimated using both laboratory and field data investigations with some simplifications. The SWAT model was calibrated over an extended time period (1997-2002) for this watershed. The river flow calibrated using SUFI-2 software and resulted in a very good outputs (R2=0.82, E=0.81). Furthermore SWAT model was validated over January 2003 to September 2005 in the study area and has resulted in good outputs (R2=0.61, E=0.57). This research illustrates SWAT 2005 capability to model fecal coliform bacteria in a populated watershed, and deals with most of watershed microbial pollution sources that are usually observed in developing countries. Fecal coliform concentration simulation results were mostly in the same order in comparison with real data. However, Differences were judged to be related to lack of input data. In this article different aspects of SWAT capabilities for modeling of fecal coliform bacteria concentration will be reviewed and it will present new insights in bacteria modeling procedures especially for mountainous, high populated and small sized watersheds.

  15. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  16. Applicability of the SWAT model for hydrologic simulation in Paraopeba river basin, MG

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matheus Fonseca Durães

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available The SWAT model (Soil and Water Assessment Tool was applied for simulating the hydrologic pattern of Paraopeba river basin, in Minas Gerais state, under different land use and occupation scenarios, looking to support basin management actions. The model parameters were calibrated and validated, with respect to the data observed from 1983 to 2005. The basin was assessed at the ‘Porto do Mesquita’ gauging station and change in land use and occupation was based on the annual growth scenarios proposed in the partial report of Paraopeba basin’s master plan. The model was found to be highly sensitive to baseflow, its main calibration variable. Statistical analyses produced a Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient above 0.75, which is considered good and acceptable. The SWAT model provided satisfactory results in simulating hydrologic pattern under different scenarios of land use change, demonstrating that it can be applied for forecasting discharge in the aforesaid basin. The current land use scenario provided a peak discharge simulation of 1250 m³ s-1, while in years 2019 and 2029 peak discharge simulations were 1190 m³ s-1 and 1230 m³ s-1 respectively. The 2019 scenario provided the best results with respect to baseflow increase and peak discharge reduction.

  17. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Ecohydrological Model Circa 2015: Global Application Trends, Insights and Issues

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gassman, P. W.; Arnold, J. G.; Srinivasan, R.

    2015-12-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed-scale water quality models in the world. Over 2,000 peer-reviewed SWAT-related journal articles have been published and hundreds of other studies have been published in conference proceedings and other formats. The use of SWAT was initially concentrated in North America and Europe but has also expanded dramatically in other countries and regions during the past decade including Brazil, China, India, Iran, South Korea, Southeast Asia and eastern Africa. The SWAT model has proven to be a very flexible tool for investigating a broad range of hydrologic and water quality problems at different watershed scales and environmental conditions, and has proven very adaptable for applications requiring improved hydrologic and other enhanced simulation needs. We investigate here the various technological, networking, and other factors that have supported the expanded use of SWAT, and also highlight current worldwide simulation trends and possible impediments to future increased usage of the model. Examples of technological advances include easy access to web-based documentation, user-support groups, and SWAT literature, a variety of Geographic Information System (GIS) interface tools, pre- and post-processing calibration software and other software, and an open source code which has served as a model development catalyst for multiple user groups. Extensive networking regarding the use of SWAT has further occurred via internet-based user support groups, model training workshops, regional working groups, regional and international conferences, and targeted development workshops. We further highlight several important model development trends that have emerged during the past decade including improved hydrologic, cropping system, best management practice (BMP) and pollutant transport simulation methods. In addition, several current SWAT weaknesses will be addressed and key development needs will be

  18. SWAT meta-modeling as support of the management scenario analysis in large watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azzellino, A; Çevirgen, S; Giupponi, C; Parati, P; Ragusa, F; Salvetti, R

    2015-01-01

    In the last two decades, numerous models and modeling techniques have been developed to simulate nonpoint source pollution effects. Most models simulate the hydrological, chemical, and physical processes involved in the entrainment and transport of sediment, nutrients, and pesticides. Very often these models require a distributed modeling approach and are limited in scope by the requirement of homogeneity and by the need to manipulate extensive data sets. Physically based models are extensively used in this field as a decision support for managing the nonpoint source emissions. A common characteristic of this type of model is a demanding input of several state variables that makes the calibration and effort-costing in implementing any simulation scenario more difficult. In this study the USDA Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to model the Venice Lagoon Watershed (VLW), Northern Italy. A Multi-Layer Perceptron (MLP) network was trained on SWAT simulations and used as a meta-model for scenario analysis. The MLP meta-model was successfully trained and showed an overall accuracy higher than 70% both on the training and on the evaluation set, allowing a significant simplification in conducting scenario analysis.

  19. Hydrosedimentological modeling of watershed in southeast Brazil, using SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maria Lúcia Calijuri

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available The quantitative evaluation of soil loss due to erosion, of water loss and of load sediments that reach water bodies is fundamental to the environmental planning of a watershed, contributing to the process of decision for best options for soil tillage and water quality maintenance. Estimates of these data have been accomplished throughout the world using empiric or conceptual models. Besides being economically viable in scenarios development, environmental models may contribute to the location of critical areas, leading to emergency contention operations caused by erosive processes. Among these models, we highlight the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool which was applied in São Bartolomeu watershed, located in the Zona da Mata, Minas Gerais state, southeastern Brazil, to identify areas of greater sensitivity to erosion considering the soil type and land use. To validate the model, 10 experimental plots were installed in the dominant crops of the watershed between 2006 and 2008, for monitoring the runoff and soil losses under natural rainfall. Field results and simulations showed the SWAT efficiency for sediment yield and soil losses estimations, as they are influenced by factors such as soil moisture, rainfall intensity, soil type and land use (dominated by Oxisols, Ultisols, Inceptisols and Entisols. These losses can be reduced significantly by improving crops management of. A simulation scenario replacing pastures cover by Eucalyptus was introduced, which significantly reduced soil loss in many parts of the watershed.

  20. Modeling the impact of nitrogen fertilizer application and tile drain configuration on nitrate leaching using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Recently, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was revised to improve the partitioning of runoff and tile drainage in poorly drained soils by modifying the algorithm for computing the soil moisture retention parameter. In this study, the revised SWAT model was used to evaluate the sensitivity a...

  1. Hydrologic and atrazine simulation of the Cedar Creek Watershed using the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larose, M; Heathman, G C; Norton, L D; Engel, B

    2007-01-01

    One of the major factors contributing to surface water contamination in agricultural areas is the use of pesticides. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrologic model capable of simulating the fate and transport of pesticides in an agricultural watershed. The SWAT model was used in this study to estimate stream flow and atrazine (2-chloro-4-(ethylamino)-6-(isopropylamino)-s-triazine) losses to surface water in the Cedar Creek Watershed (CCW) within the St. Joseph River Basin in northeastern Indiana. Model calibration and validation periods consisted of five and two year periods, respectively. The National Agricultural Statistics Survey (NASS) 2001 land cover classification and the Soil Survey Geographic (SSURGO) database were used as model input data layers. Data from the St. Joseph River Watershed Initiative and the Soil and Water Conservation Districts of Allen, Dekalb, and Noble counties were used to represent agricultural practices in the watershed which included the type of crops grown, tillage practices, fertilizer, and pesticide application rates. Model results were evaluated based on efficiency coefficient values, standard statistical measures, and visual inspection of the measured and simulated hydrographs. The Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficients (E(NS)) for monthly and daily stream flow calibration and validation ranged from 0.51 to 0.66. The E(NS) values for atrazine calibration and validation ranged from 0.43 to 0.59. All E(NS) values were within the range of acceptable model performance standards. The results of this study indicate that the model is an effective tool in capturing the dynamics of stream flow and atrazine concentrations on a large-scale agricultural watershed in the midwestern USA.

  2. Streamflow data assimilation in SWAT model using Extended Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Leqiang; Nistor, Ioan; Seidou, Ousmane

    2015-12-01

    The Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is coupled with the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) model in the streamflow assimilation of the upstream Senegal River in West Africa. Given the large number of distributed variables in SWAT, only the average watershed scale variables are included in the state vector and the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) scale variables are updated with the a posteriori/a priori ratio of their watershed scale counterparts. The Jacobian matrix is calculated numerically by perturbing the state variables. Both the soil moisture and CN2 are significantly updated in the wet season, yet they have opposite update patterns. A case study for a large flood forecast shows that for up to seven days, the streamflow forecast is moderately improved using the EKF-subsequent open loop scheme but significantly improved with a newly designed quasi-error update scheme. The former has better performances in the flood rising period while the latter has better performances in the recession period. For both schemes, the streamflow forecast is improved more significantly when the lead time is shorter.

  3. A comparison of single- and multi-site calibration and validation: a case study of SWAT in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Jianwen; Shen, Zhenyao; Yan, Tiezhu

    2017-09-01

    An essential task in evaluating global water resource and pollution problems is to obtain the optimum set of parameters in hydrological models through calibration and validation. For a large-scale watershed, single-site calibration and validation may ignore spatial heterogeneity and may not meet the needs of the entire watershed. The goal of this study is to apply a multi-site calibration and validation of the Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT), using the observed flow data at three monitoring sites within the Baihe watershed of the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China. Our results indicate that the multi-site calibration parameter values are more reasonable than those obtained from single-site calibrations. These results are mainly due to significant differences in the topographic factors over the large-scale area, human activities and climate variability. The multi-site method involves the division of the large watershed into smaller watersheds, and applying the calibrated parameters of the multi-site calibration to the entire watershed. It was anticipated that this case study could provide experience of multi-site calibration in a large-scale basin, and provide a good foundation for the simulation of other pollutants in followup work in the Miyun Reservoir watershed and other similar large areas.

  4. Evaluation of the applicability of the SWAT model in an arid piedmont plain oasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yong; Li, Changyou; Zhang, Chengfu; Shi, Xiaohong; Bourque, Charles P-A; Zhao, Shengnan

    2016-01-01

    Hetao Oasis is located in a typical piedmont alluvial plain bounded by the Langshan Mountain Range in the north, desert in the west, and the Yellow River in the south. Agricultural activities within the oasis significantly impact the hydrological cycle and water quality in downstream locations. The research uses the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for a piedmont plain by defining the watershed boundary as coinciding with the natural mountain ridge, the border between the oasis and the desert, and the Yellow River. The model simulates water discharge with coefficient of determination and a Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency of 0.78 and 0.62 during model calibration, and 0.75 and 0.69 during model validation, suggesting that delineation of the watershed as carried out in this research is suitable for piedmont plain topography. From the results, the mountains contribute 28.4% to the water discharge at the outlet of the watershed, and water-use efficiency of irrigated water is about 40%, which is consistent with field-based measurements. Methodologies used in delineating watershed boundaries and parameterizing SWAT provide a solid foundation for water balance studies in other regions of the world with similar topography.

  5. Impacts of Irrigation Practices on Groundwater Recharge in Mississippi Delta Using coupled SWAT-MODFLOW Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, F.; Feng, G.; Han, M.; Jenkins, J.; Ouyang, Y.

    2017-12-01

    The Lower Mississippi River alluvial plain (refers to as MS Delta), located in the northwest state of Mississippi, is one of the most productive agricultural region in the U.S. The primary crops grown in this region are soybean, corn, cotton, and rice. Approximately 80% water from the alluvial aquifer in MS Delta are withdrawn for irrigation, which makes it the most used aquifer in the State. As a result, groundwater level has declined > 6 m since 1970, which threaten the sustainability of irrigated agriculture in this region. The objectives of this study were to: 1) couple the SWAT and MODFLOW then calibrate and validate the incorporated model outputs for stream flow, groundwater level and evapotranspiration (ET) in MS Delta; 2) simulate the groundwater recharge as affected by a) conventional irrigation scheme, b) no irrigation scheme, c) ET based and soil moisture based full irrigation schedules using all groundwater, and d) ET and soil moisture based full irrigation schedule using different percentages of surface and ground water. Results indicated that the coupled model performed well during the calibration and validation for daily stream flow at three USGS gauge stations. (R2=0.7; Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) varied from 0.6 to 0.7; Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) ranged from 20 to 27 m3/s). The values of determination coefficient R2 for groundwater level were 0.95 for calibration and 0.88 for validation, their NSE values were 0.99 and 0.93, respectively. The values of RMSE for groundwater level during the calibration and validation period were 0.51 and 0.59 m. The values of R2, NSE and RMSE between SWAT-MODFLOW simulated actual evapotranspiration (ET) and remote sensing evapotranspiration (ET) were 0.52, 0.51 and 28.1 mm. The simulated total average monthly groundwater recharge had lower values of 19 mm/month in the crop season than 30 mm/month in the crop off-growing season. The SWAT-MODFLOW can be a useful tool for not only simulating the recharge in MS

  6. Ethiopian Central Rift Valley basin hydrologic modelling using HEC-HMS and ArcSWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pascual-Ferrer, Jordi; Candela, Lucila; Pérez-Foguet, Agustí

    2013-04-01

    , considering data uncertainty and model complexity a previous hydrologic assessment of the basin based in HEC-HMS simulation is advisable. As a first approach HEC-HMS was implemented for basin modeling in order to get physical parameters of interest, results from HEC-HMS calibration were used to setup the accuracy of the ArcSWAT numerical modelling. References Arnold, J.G., Srinivasan, R., Muttiah, R.S. & Williams, J.R. (1998). Large Area Hydrologic Modeling and Assessment Part I: Model Development. JAWRA Journal of the American Water Resources Association, Vol. 34, No. 1, pp. 73-89. Jansen, H., Hengsdijk, H., Legesse, D., Ayenew, T., Hellegers, P. & Spliethoff, P. (2007). Land and water resources assessment in the Ethiopian Central Rift Valley. In Alterra report 1587. Wageningen: Alterra. p. 81. Neitsch, S.L., Arnold, J.G., Kiniry, J.R. & Williams, J.R. (2005). Soil and Water Assessment Tool Theoretical Documentation. Version 2005, Temple, Texas.

  7. Effects of soil data resolution on SWAT model stream flow and water quality predictions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geza, Mengistu; McCray, John E

    2008-08-01

    The prediction accuracy of agricultural nonpoint source pollution models such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) depends on how well model input spatial parameters describe the characteristics of the watershed. The objective of this study was to assess the effects of different soil data resolutions on stream flow, sediment and nutrient predictions when used as input for SWAT. SWAT model predictions were compared for the two US Department of Agriculture soil databases with different resolution, namely the State Soil Geographic database (STATSGO) and the Soil Survey Geographic database (SSURGO). Same number of sub-basins was used in the watershed delineation. However, the number of HRUs generated when STATSGO and SSURGO soil data were used is 261 and 1301, respectively. SSURGO, with the highest spatial resolution, has 51 unique soil types in the watershed distributed in 1301 HRUs, while STATSGO has only three distributed in 261 HRUS. As a result of low resolution STATSGO assigns a single classification to areas that may have different soil types if SSURGO were used. SSURGO included Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) with soil types that were generalized to one soil group in STATSGO. The difference in the number and size of HRUs also has an effect on sediment yield parameters (slope and slope length). Thus, as a result of the discrepancies in soil type and size of HRUs stream flow predicted was higher when SSURGO was used compared to STATSGO. SSURGO predicted less stream loading than STATSGO in terms of sediment and sediment-attached nutrients components, and vice versa for dissolved nutrients. When compared to mean daily measured flow, STATSGO performed better relative to SSURGO before calibration. SSURGO provided better results after calibration as evaluated by R(2) value (0.74 compared to 0.61 for STATSGO) and the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of Efficiency (NSE) values (0.70 and 0.61 for SSURGO and STATSGO, respectively) although both are in the same satisfactory

  8. Assessment of NASA's Physiographic and Meteorological Datasets as Input to HSPF and SWAT Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alacron, Vladimir J.; Nigro, Joseph D.; McAnally, William H.; OHara, Charles G.; Engman, Edwin Ted; Toll, David

    2011-01-01

    This paper documents the use of simulated Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land use/land cover (MODIS-LULC), NASA-LIS generated precipitation and evapo-transpiration (ET), and Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) datasets (in conjunction with standard land use, topographical and meteorological datasets) as input to hydrological models routinely used by the watershed hydrology modeling community. The study is focused in coastal watersheds in the Mississippi Gulf Coast although one of the test cases focuses in an inland watershed located in northeastern State of Mississippi, USA. The decision support tools (DSTs) into which the NASA datasets were assimilated were the Soil Water & Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Hydrological Simulation Program FORTRAN (HSPF). These DSTs are endorsed by several US government agencies (EPA, FEMA, USGS) for water resources management strategies. These models use physiographic and meteorological data extensively. Precipitation gages and USGS gage stations in the region were used to calibrate several HSPF and SWAT model applications. Land use and topographical datasets were swapped to assess model output sensitivities. NASA-LIS meteorological data were introduced in the calibrated model applications for simulation of watershed hydrology for a time period in which no weather data were available (1997-2006). The performance of the NASA datasets in the context of hydrological modeling was assessed through comparison of measured and model-simulated hydrographs. Overall, NASA datasets were as useful as standard land use, topographical , and meteorological datasets. Moreover, NASA datasets were used for performing analyses that the standard datasets could not made possible, e.g., introduction of land use dynamics into hydrological simulations

  9. Assessment of terrain slope influence in SWAT modeling of Andean watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yacoub, C.; Pérez-Foguet, A.

    2009-04-01

    extensive mining in the upper part may be contributing to it. For this reason, the Jequetepeque watershed was the object of several studies from the government and NGOs. In particular, the "CESAH" study (WWF, CARE and IIED 2007) constitutes the first serious effort to model hydrological basin behavior. It includes a compilation of the data needed to run the SWAT model and an analysis of the first results. In this study, model is calibrated. Model version "ArcSWAT 2005" is used. A sensitivity analysis of terrain slope influence in HRU definition and model results is included. Results confirm the relevance of an accurate calibration process as well as the pertinence of including a fine description of slope variation in the modeling of Andean watersheds. Reference: WWF, CARE and IIED 2007. Compensación Equitativa por Servicios Ambientales Hidrológicos, "CESAH". Análisis biofísico (modelo SWAT). Cajamarca, Perú.

  10. [Coupling SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 models to simulate water quantity and quality in Shanmei Reservoir watershed].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Mei-Bing; Chen, Dong-Ping; Chen, Xing-Wei; Chen, Ying

    2013-12-01

    A coupled watershed-reservoir modeling approach consisting of a watershed distributed model (SWAT) and a two-dimensional laterally averaged model (CE-QUAL-W2) was adopted for simulating the impact of non-point source pollution from upland watershed on water quality of Shanmei Reservoir. Using the daily serial output from Shanmei Reservoir watershed by SWAT as the input to Shanmei Reservoir by CE-QUAL-W2, the coupled modeling was calibrated for runoff and outputs of sediment and pollutant at watershed scale and for elevation, temperature, nitrate, ammonium and total nitrogen in Shanmei Reservoir. The results indicated that the simulated values agreed fairly well with the observed data, although the calculation precision of downstream model would be affected by the accumulative errors generated from the simulation of upland model. The SWAT and CE-QUAL-W2 coupled modeling could be used to assess the hydrodynamic and water quality process in complex watershed comprised of upland watershed and downstream reservoir, and might further provide scientific basis for positioning key pollution source area and controlling the reservoir eutrophication.

  11. Incorporating rainfall uncertainty in a SWAT model: the river Zenne basin (Belgium) case study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolessa Leta, Olkeba; Nossent, Jiri; van Griensven, Ann; Bauwens, Willy

    2013-04-01

    The European Union Water Framework Directive (EU-WFD) called its member countries to achieve a good ecological status for all inland and coastal water bodies by 2015. According to recent studies, the river Zenne (Belgium) is far from this objective. Therefore, an interuniversity and multidisciplinary project "Towards a Good Ecological Status in the river Zenne (GESZ)" was launched to evaluate the effects of wastewater management plans on the river. In this project, different models have been developed and integrated using the Open Modelling Interface (OpenMI). The hydrologic, semi-distributed Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is hereby used as one of the model components in the integrated modelling chain in order to model the upland catchment processes. The assessment of the uncertainty of SWAT is an essential aspect of the decision making process, in order to design robust management strategies that take the predicted uncertainties into account. Model uncertainty stems from the uncertainties on the model parameters, the input data (e.g, rainfall), the calibration data (e.g., stream flows) and on the model structure itself. The objective of this paper is to assess the first three sources of uncertainty in a SWAT model of the river Zenne basin. For the assessment of rainfall measurement uncertainty, first, we identified independent rainfall periods, based on the daily precipitation and stream flow observations and using the Water Engineering Time Series PROcessing tool (WETSPRO). Secondly, we assigned a rainfall multiplier parameter for each of the independent rainfall periods, which serves as a multiplicative input error corruption. Finally, we treated these multipliers as latent parameters in the model optimization and uncertainty analysis (UA). For parameter uncertainty assessment, due to the high number of parameters of the SWAT model, first, we screened out its most sensitive parameters using the Latin Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) technique

  12. Evaluation of precipitation input for SWAT modeling in Alpine catchment: A case study in the Adige river basin (Italy).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuo, Ye; Duan, Zheng; Disse, Markus; Chiogna, Gabriele

    2016-12-15

    Precipitation is often the most important input data in hydrological models when simulating streamflow. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a widely used hydrological model, only makes use of data from one precipitation gauge station that is nearest to the centroid of each subbasin, which is eventually corrected using the elevation band method. This leads in general to inaccurate representation of subbasin precipitation input data, particularly in catchments with complex topography. To investigate the impact of different precipitation inputs on the SWAT model simulations in Alpine catchments, 13years (1998-2010) of daily precipitation data from four datasets including OP (Observed precipitation), IDW (Inverse Distance Weighting data), CHIRPS (Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Station data) and TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has been considered. Both model performances (comparing simulated and measured streamflow data at the catchment outlet) as well as parameter and prediction uncertainties have been quantified. For all three subbasins, the use of elevation bands is fundamental to match the water budget. Streamflow predictions obtained using IDW inputs are better than those obtained using the other datasets in terms of both model performance and prediction uncertainty. Models using the CHIRPS product as input provide satisfactory streamflow estimation, suggesting that this satellite product can be applied to this data-scarce Alpine region. Comparing the performance of SWAT models using different precipitation datasets is therefore important in data-scarce regions. This study has shown that, precipitation is the main source of uncertainty, and different precipitation datasets in SWAT models lead to different best estimate ranges for the calibrated parameters. This has important implications for the interpretation of the simulated hydrological processes. Copyright © 2016 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. ASSESSMENT OF WATER BALANCE OF A WATERSHED USING SWAT MODEL FOR WATER RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

    OpenAIRE

    Sandra George; Sathian, K.K.

    2016-01-01

    An attempt has been made in this study to assess the hydrological behavior of the Kurumali sub basin of Karuvannur river basin using SWAT model and other geospatial technologies. All the thematic maps and attribute information of the watershed have been collected from various Government agencies. SWAT model has been set up for the Kurumali sub basin by inputting the digital thematic maps, physical properties of soil and climatic parameters. Total area of the watershed corresponding to the out...

  14. Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model

    Science.gov (United States)

    This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

  15. A comparison of SWAT, HSPF and SHETRAN/GOPC for modelling phosphorus export from three catchments in Ireland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasr, Ahmed; Bruen, Michael; Jordan, Philip; Moles, Richard; Kiely, Gerard; Byrne, Paul

    2007-03-01

    Recent extensive water quality surveys in Ireland revealed that diffuse phosphorus (P) pollution originating from agricultural land and transported by runoff and subsurface flows is the primary cause of the deterioration of surface water quality. P transport from land to water can be described by mathematical models that vary in modelling approach, complexity and scale (plot, field and catchment). Here, three mathematical models (soil water and analysis tools (SWAT), hydrological simulation program-FORTRAN (HSPF) and système hydrologique Européen TRANsport (SHETRAN)/grid oriented phosphorus component (GOPC)) of diffuse P pollution have been tested in three Irish catchments to explore their suitability in Irish conditions for future use in implementing the European Water Framework Directive. After calibrating the models, their daily flows and total phosphorus (TP) exports are compared and assessed. The HSPF model was the best at simulating the mean daily discharge while SWAT gave the best calibration results for daily TP loads. Annual TP exports for the three models and for two empirical models were compared with measured data. No single model is consistently better in estimating the annual TP export for all three catchments.

  16. Pathogen Transport and Fate Modeling in the Upper Salem River Watershed Using SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is a dynamic watershed model that is applied to simulate the impact of land management practices on water quality over a continuous period. The Upper Salem River, located in Salem County New Jersey, is listed by the New Jersey Department of ...

  17. Annual theme report (October 2007 to September 2008) for the environmental impact (SWAT modeling) component of "Agroforestry and Sustainable Vegetable Production in Southeast Asian Watersheds" project

    OpenAIRE

    Ella, Victor B.

    2008-01-01

    The implementation of the Environmental Impact (SWAT Modeling) component of this SANREM CRSP project in year 3 was highlighted by further work on SWAT model development in Indonesia, Philippines and Vietnam. In all three countries, additional input data have been collected over the past year for SWAT modeling purposes. Data Elevation Models (DEMs), land use maps and soil maps have also been prepared in all three countries. In the Philippines, SWAT model has been developed for assessing the hy...

  18. Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Heuvelmans

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the

  19. Pesticide transport to tile-drained fields in SWAT model – macropore flow and sediment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte

    2015-01-01

    Tool (SWAT) to simulate transport of both mobile (e.g. Bentazon) and strongly sorbed (e.g. Diuron) pesticides in tile drains. Macropore flow is initiated when soil water content exceeds a threshold and rainfall intensity exceeds infiltration capacity. The amount of macropore flow is calculated...... to macropore sediment transport. Simulated tile drain discharge, sediment and pesticide loads are calibrated against data from intensively monitored tile-drained fields and streams in Denmark....

  20. Stream Flow Simulation of a Snow-Fed Mountainous Basin Using the SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shukla, S.; Kansal, M. L.; Jain, S. K.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological budget of the Satluj River (a major tributary of Indus river system) in Western Himalaya, is dominated by monsoonal rainfall and snowmelt during the non-monsoon months. The river watershed experiences extensive snowfall in the winters and snowmelt runoff substantially contributes to the streamflow of the river in the spring and summer months. In order to understand the hydrologic response of Satluj basin, hydrological modeling study is carried out using a semi distributed hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), for the period of thirty years (1985-2014). The basic intent of this study is to derive the parameters required for runoff modeling using the geospatial database. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) algorithm is used to calibrate and validate the model and incorporate uncertainties in the analysis. The results are validated with the observed daily streamflow data at Rampur, in terms of Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC), R2 and Root Mean Square Error (RMSE). Further, the snowmelt-runoff mechanism is modelled by relating the temperature changes to the elevation band in the basin. The northern part of the basin and the south part of the basin on the high elevation zones have the coldest maximum temperatures that is about 7°C. It is found that the average contribution of snow and glacier runoff in the annual flow of the Satluj River at Rampur is about 66% and remaining 34% is from rainfall.

  1. Assessment of the Environmental Fate of the Herbicides Flufenacet and Metazachlor with the SWAT Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fohrer, Nicola; Dietrich, Antje; Kolychalow, Olga; Ulrich, Uta

    2014-01-01

    This study aims to assess the environmental fate of the commonly used herbicides flufenacet and metazachlor in the Northern German Lowlands with the ecohydrological Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model) and to test the sensitivity of pesticide-related input parameters on the modeled transport dynamics. The river discharge of the Kielstau watershed was calibrated (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency [NSE], 0.83; = 0.84) and validated (NSE, 0.76; = 0.77) for a daily time step. The environmental fate of metazachlor (NSE, 0.68; = 0.62) and flufenacet (NSE, 0.13; = 0.51) was simulated adequately. In comparison to metazachlor, the simulated flufenacet concentration and loads show a lower model efficiency due to the weaker simulation of the stream flow. The in-stream herbicide loads were less than 0.01% of the applied amount in the observed time period and thus not in conflict with European Environmental Legislation. The sensitivity analysis showed that, besides the accurate simulation of stream flow, the parameterization of the temporal and spatial distribution of the herbicide application throughout the watershed is the key factor for appropriate modeling results, whereas the physicochemical properties of the pesticides play a minor role in the modeling process. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  2. Code modernization and modularization of APEX and SWAT watershed simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and APEX (Agricultural Policy / Environmental eXtender) are respectively large and small watershed simulation models derived from EPIC Environmental Policy Integrated Climate), a field-scale agroecology simulation model. All three models are coded in FORTRAN an...

  3. Simulation of a low-gradient Coastal Plain watershed using the SWAT landscape model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Accurate representation of landscape processes in natural resource models requires distributed representation of basin hydrology and transport processes. To better represent these processes, a landscape version of the SWAT model has been developed. The model has been modified to represent the runo...

  4. Hydrological modeling of the Simly Dam watershed (Pakistan) using GIS and SWAT model

    OpenAIRE

    Shimaa M. Ghoraba

    2015-01-01

    Modern mathematical models have been developed for studying the complex hydrological processes of a watershed and their direct relation to weather, topography, geology and land use. In this study the hydrology of Simly Dam watershed located in Saon River basin at the north-east of Islamabad is modeled, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). It aims to simulate the stream flow, establish the water balance and estimate the monthly volume inflow to Simly Dam in order to help the manage...

  5. Application of SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source load, fate, and transport of fecal bacteria in watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranatunga, T.

    2017-12-01

    Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads from SELECT model were input to the SWAT model, and simulate the bacteria transport through the land and in-stream. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on regional land use, population and household forecast (up to 2040). Based on the reductions required to meet the water quality standards in-stream, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

  6. The modified SWAT model for predicting fecal coliforms in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Kim, Joon Ha; Kim, Jung-Woo; Park, Mi-Hyun

    2012-10-01

    This study assessed fecal coliform contamination in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed in Massachusetts, USA using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) because bacteria are one of the major water quality parameters of concern. The bacteria subroutine in SWAT, considering in-stream bacteria die-off only, was modified in this study to include solar radiation-associated die-off and the contribution of wildlife. The result of sensitivity analysis demonstrates that solar radiation is one of the most significant fate factors of fecal coliform. A water temperature-associated function to represent the contribution of beaver activity in the watershed to fecal contamination improved prediction accuracy. The modified SWAT model provides an improved estimate of bacteria from the watershed. Our approach will be useful for simulating bacterial concentrations to provide predictive and reliable information of fecal contamination thus facilitating the implementation of effective watershed management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Spatial Mapping of Agricultural Water Productivity Using the SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thokal, Rajesh Tulshiram; Gorantiwar, S. D.; Kothari, Mahesh; Bhakar, S. R.; Nandwana, B. P.

    2015-03-01

    The Sina river basin is facing both episodic and chronic water shortages due to intensive irrigation development. The main objective of this study was to characterize the hydrologic processes of the Sina river basin and assess crop water productivity using the distributed hydrologic model, SWAT. In the simulation year (1998-1999), the inflow to reservoir from upstream side was the major contributor to the reservoir accounting for 92 % of the total required water release for irrigation purpose (119.5 Mm3), while precipitation accounted for 4.1 Mm3. Annual release of water for irrigation was 119.5 Mm3 out of which 54 % water was diverted for irrigation purpose, 26 % was wasted as conveyance loss, average discharge at the command outlet was estimated as 4 % and annual average ground-water recharge coefficient was in the range of 13-17 %. Various scenarios involving water allocation rule were tested with the goal of increasing economic water productivity values in the Sina Irrigation Scheme. Out of those, only most benefited allocation rule is analyzed in this paper. Crop yield varied from 1.98 to 25.9 t/ha, with the majority of the area between 2.14 and 2.78 t/ha. Yield and WP declined significantly in loamy soils of the irrigation command. Crop productivity in the basin was found in the lower range when compared with potential and global values. The findings suggested that there was a potential to improve further. Spatial variations in yield and WP were found to be very high for the crops grown during rabi season, while those were low for the crops grown during kharif season. The crop yields and WP during kharif season were more in the lower reach of the irrigation commands, where loamy soil is more concentrated. Sorghum in both seasons was most profitable. Sorghum fetched net income fivefold that of sunflower, two and half fold of pearl millet and one and half fold of mung beans as far as crop during kharif season were concerned and it fetched fourfold that of

  8. Land use change impacts on discharge analysis using SWAT model at Ciherang Pondok DAM catchment area

    Science.gov (United States)

    Utamahadi, M. A.; Pandjaitan, N. H.; Rau, M. I.

    2018-05-01

    The prompt increase of population influenced the requirement for new regions to fulfill people’s primary needs. Its increased land use change and caused many impacts on the environment, including watersheds as well. Ciherang Pondok DAM catchment area is part of Cisadane watershed and was selected as the research area. This research aimed to analyse the water supply and water discharge change caused by the Urban Planning (RTRW) in 2020. The analysis was conducted using soil and water assessment tools (SWAT) model. Stages of this research were catchment area delineation, HRU identification, calibration and validation of models, and prediction of discharge and water demand. The result showed that RTRW of 2020 increased the maximum discharge of 1.6 m3/s and decreased the minimum discharge of 0.01 m3/s, hence the maximum and minimum discharge ratio increased 0.26% from 2016. Output discharge in 2020 at Ciherang Pondok Dam Catchment Area was classified as well, with discharge of 6.72 – 126.2 m3/s, and could fulfil water demand. For the best result, it is better to use climate data from weather stations inside the study area and it is required an improvement in data archiving system.

  9. Evaluation of nutrient retention in vegetated filter strips using the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elçi, Alper

    2017-11-01

    Nutrient fluxes in stream basins need to be controlled to achieve good water quality status. In stream basins with intensive agricultural activities, nutrients predominantly come from diffuse sources. Therefore, best management practices (BMPs) are increasingly implemented to reduce nutrient input to streams. The objective of this study is to evaluate the impact of vegetated filter strip (VFS) application as an agricultural BMP. For this purpose, SWAT is chosen, a semi-distributed water quality assessment model that works at the watershed scale, and applied on the Nif stream basin, a small-sized basin in Western Turkey. The model is calibrated with an automated procedure against measured monthly discharge data. Nutrient loads for each sub-basin are estimated considering basin-wide data on chemical fertilizer and manure usage, population data for septic tank effluents and information about the land cover. Nutrient loads for 19 sub-basins are predicted on an annual basis. Average total nitrogen and total phosphorus loads are estimated as 47.85 t/yr and 13.36 t/yr for the entire basin. Results show that VFS application in one sub-basin offers limited retention of nutrients and that a selection of 20-m filter width is most effective from a cost-benefit perspective.

  10. A generalized methodology for identification of threshold for HRU delineation in SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    M, J.; Sudheer, K.; Chaubey, I.; Raj, C.

    2016-12-01

    The distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a comprehensive hydrologic model widely used for making various decisions. The simulation accuracy of the distributed hydrological model differs due to the mechanism involved in the subdivision of the watershed. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) considers sub-dividing the watershed and the sub-basins into small computing units known as 'hydrologic response units (HRU). The delineation of HRU is done based on unique combinations of land use, soil types, and slope within the sub-watersheds, which are not spatially defined. The computations in SWAT are done at HRU level and are then aggregated up to the sub-basin outlet, which is routed through the stream system. Generally, the HRUs are delineated by considering a threshold percentage of land use, soil and slope are to be given by the modeler to decrease the computation time of the model. The thresholds constrain the minimum area for constructing an HRU. In the current HRU delineation practice in SWAT, the land use, soil and slope of the watershed within a sub-basin, which is less than the predefined threshold, will be surpassed by the dominating land use, soil and slope, and introduce some level of ambiguity in the process simulations in terms of inappropriate representation of the area. But the loss of information due to variation in the threshold values depends highly on the purpose of the study. Therefore this research studies the effects of threshold values of HRU delineation on the hydrological modeling of SWAT on sediment simulations and suggests guidelines for selecting the appropriate threshold values considering the sediment simulation accuracy. The preliminary study was done on Illinois watershed by assigning different thresholds for land use and soil. A general methodology was proposed for identifying an appropriate threshold for HRU delineation in SWAT model that considered computational time and accuracy of the simulation

  11. Evapotranspiration and Precipitation inputs for SWAT model using remotely sensed observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    The ability of numerical models, such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (or SWAT), to accurately represent the partition of the water budget and describe sediment loads and other pollutant conditions related to water quality strongly depends on how well spatiotemporal variability in precipitatio...

  12. Hydrologic evaluation of a Mediterranean watershed using the SWAT model with multiple PET estimation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Penman-Monteith method suggested by the Food Agricultural Organization in the Irrigation and drainage paper 56 (FAO-56 P-M) was used to evaluate surface runoff and sediment yield predictions by the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model at the outlet of an experimental watershed in Sicily. ...

  13. Flow forecast by SWAT model and ANN in Pracana basin, Portugal

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Demirel, M.C.; Venancio, Anabela; Kahya, Ercan

    2009-01-01

    This study provides a unique opportunity to analyze the issue of flow forecast based on the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. In last two decades, the ANNs have been extensively applied to various water resources system problems. In this study, the

  14. Evaluating Uncertainty of Runoff Simulation using SWAT model of the Feilaixia Watershed in China Based on the GLUE Method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, X.; Huang, G.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, distributed hydrological models have been widely used in storm water management, water resources protection and so on. Therefore, how to evaluate the uncertainty of the model reasonably and efficiently becomes a hot topic today. In this paper, the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) model is constructed for the study area of China's Feilaixia watershed, and the uncertainty of the runoff simulation is analyzed by GLUE method deeply. Taking the initial parameter range of GLUE method as the research core, the influence of different initial parameter ranges on model uncertainty is studied. In this paper, two sets of parameter ranges are chosen as the object of study, the first one (range 1) is recommended by SWAT-CUP and the second one (range 2) is calibrated by SUFI-2. The results showed that under the same number of simulations (10,000 times), the overall uncertainty obtained by the range 2 is less than the range 1. Specifically, the "behavioral" parameter sets for the range 2 is 10000 and for the range 1 is 4448. In the calibration and the validation, the ratio of P-factor to R-factor for range 1 is 1.387 and 1.391, and for range 2 is 1.405 and 1.462 respectively. In addition, the simulation result of range 2 is better with the NS and R2 slightly higher than range 1. Therefore, it can be concluded that using the parameter range calibrated by SUFI-2 as the initial parameter range for the GLUE is a way to effectively capture and evaluate the simulation uncertainty.

  15. Assessment of land-use change on streamflow using GIS, remote sensing and a physically-based model, SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. G. Dos Santos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the impact of the land-use changes between the periods 1967−1974 and 1997−2008 on the streamflow of Tapacurá catchment (northeastern Brazil using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. The results show that the most sensitive parameters were the baseflow, Manning factor, time of concentration and soil evaporation compensation factor, which affect the catchment hydrology. The model calibration and validation were performed on a monthly basis, and the streamflow simulation showed a good level of accuracy for both periods. The obtained R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for each period were respectively 0.82 and 0.81 for 1967−1974, and 0.93 and 0.92 for the period 1997−2008. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to the land cover has shown that the mean monthly flow, during the rainy seasons for 1967−1974, decreased when compared to 1997−2008.

  16. Quantifying the Contribution of On-Site Wastewater Treatment Systems to Stream Discharge Using the SWAT Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, C W; Radcliffe, D E; Risse, L M; Habteselassie, M; Mukundan, R; Jeong, J; Hoghooghi, N

    2014-03-01

    In the southeastern United States, on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs) are widely used for domestic wastewater treatment. The degree to which OWTSs represent consumptive water use has been questioned in Georgia. The goal of this study was to estimate the effect of OWTSs on streamflow in a gauged watershed in Gwinnett County, Georgia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed-scale model, which includes a new OWTS algorithm. Streamflow was modeled with and without the presence of OWTSs. The model was calibrated using data from 1 Jan. 2003 to 31 Dec. 2006 and validated from 1 Jan. 2007 to 31 Dec. 2010 using the auto-calibration tool SWAT-CUP 4. The daily and monthly streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.49 and 0.71, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.37 and 0.68, respectively, for the validation period, indicating a satisfactory fit. Analysis of water balance output variables between simulations showed a 3.1% increase in total water yield at the watershed scale and a 5.9% increase at the subbasin scale for a high-density OWTS area. The percent change in water yield between simulations was the greatest in dry years, implying that the influence of OWTSs on the water yield is greatest under drought conditions. Mean OWTS water use was approximately 5.7% consumptive, contrary to common assumptions by water planning agencies in Georgia. Results from this study may be used by OWTS users and by watershed planners to understand the influence of OWTSs on water quantity within watersheds in this region. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. Evaluation of non-point source pollution reduction by applying best management practices using a SWAT model and QuickBird high resolution satellite imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, MiSeon; Park, GeunAe; Park, MinJi; Park, JongYoon; Lee, JiWan; Kim, SeongJoon

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the reduction effect of non-point source pollution by applying best management practices (BMPs) to a 1.21 km2 small agricultural watershed using a SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Two meter QuickBird land use data were prepared for the watershed. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow and monthly water quality (total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and suspended solids (SS)) records from 1999 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2002. The average Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.63 for the streamflow and the coefficients of determination were 0.88, 0.72, and 0.68 for SS, TN, and TP, respectively. Four BMP scenarios viz. the application of vegetation filter strip and riparian buffer system, the regulation of Universal Soil Loss Equation P factor, and the fertilizing control amount for crops were applied and analyzed.

  18. Free internet datasets for streamflow modelling using SWAT in the Johor river basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tan, M. L.

    2014-02-01

    Streamflow modelling is a mathematical computational approach that represents terrestrial hydrology cycle digitally and is used for water resources assessment. However, such modelling endeavours require a large amount of data. Generally, governmental departments produce and maintain these data sets which make it difficult to obtain this data due to bureaucratic constraints. In some countries, the availability and quality of geospatial and climate datasets remain a critical issue due to many factors such as lacking of ground station, expertise, technology, financial support and war time. To overcome this problem, this research used public domain datasets from the Internet as "input" to a streamflow model. The intention is simulate daily and monthly streamflow of the Johor River Basin in Malaysia. The model used is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). As input free data including a digital elevation model (DEM), land use information, soil and climate data were used. The model was validated by in-situ streamflow information obtained from Rantau Panjang station for the year 2006. The coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.35/0.02 for daily simulated streamflow and 0.92/0.21 for monthly simulated streamflow, respectively. The results show that free data can provide a better simulation at a monthly scale compared to a daily basis in a tropical region. A sensitivity analysis and calibration procedure should be conducted in order to maximize the "goodness-of-fit" between simulated and observed streamflow. The application of Internet datasets promises an acceptable performance of streamflow modelling. This research demonstrates that public domain data is suitable for streamflow modelling in a tropical river basin within acceptable accuracy.

  19. Free internet datasets for streamflow modelling using SWAT in the Johor river basin, Malaysia

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tan, M L

    2014-01-01

    Streamflow modelling is a mathematical computational approach that represents terrestrial hydrology cycle digitally and is used for water resources assessment. However, such modelling endeavours require a large amount of data. Generally, governmental departments produce and maintain these data sets which make it difficult to obtain this data due to bureaucratic constraints. In some countries, the availability and quality of geospatial and climate datasets remain a critical issue due to many factors such as lacking of ground station, expertise, technology, financial support and war time. To overcome this problem, this research used public domain datasets from the Internet as ''input'' to a streamflow model. The intention is simulate daily and monthly streamflow of the Johor River Basin in Malaysia. The model used is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). As input free data including a digital elevation model (DEM), land use information, soil and climate data were used. The model was validated by in-situ streamflow information obtained from Rantau Panjang station for the year 2006. The coefficient of determination and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency were 0.35/0.02 for daily simulated streamflow and 0.92/0.21 for monthly simulated streamflow, respectively. The results show that free data can provide a better simulation at a monthly scale compared to a daily basis in a tropical region. A sensitivity analysis and calibration procedure should be conducted in order to maximize the ''goodness-of-fit'' between simulated and observed streamflow. The application of Internet datasets promises an acceptable performance of streamflow modelling. This research demonstrates that public domain data is suitable for streamflow modelling in a tropical river basin within acceptable accuracy

  20. A simple rule based model for scheduling farm management operations in SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schürz, Christoph; Mehdi, Bano; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    For many interdisciplinary questions at the watershed scale, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT; Arnold et al., 1998) has become an accepted and widely used tool. Despite its flexibility, the model is highly demanding when it comes to input data. At SWAT's core the water balance and the modeled nutrient cycles are plant growth driven (implemented with the EPIC crop growth model). Therefore, land use and crop data with high spatial and thematic resolution, as well as detailed information on cultivation and farm management practices are required. For many applications of the model however, these data are unavailable. In order to meet these requirements, SWAT offers the option to trigger scheduled farm management operations by applying the Potential Heat Unit (PHU) concept. The PHU concept solely takes into account the accumulation of daily mean temperature for management scheduling. Hence, it contradicts several farming strategies that take place in reality; such as: i) Planting and harvesting dates are set much too early or too late, as the PHU concept is strongly sensitivity to inter-annual temperature fluctuations; ii) The timing of fertilizer application, in SWAT this often occurs simultaneously on the same date in in each field; iii) and can also coincide with precipitation events. Particularly, the latter two can lead to strong peaks in modeled nutrient loads. To cope with these shortcomings we propose a simple rule based model (RBM) to schedule management operations according to realistic farmer management practices in SWAT. The RBM involves simple strategies requiring only data that are input into the SWAT model initially, such as temperature and precipitation data. The user provides boundaries of time periods for operation schedules to take place for all crops in the model. These data are readily available from the literature or from crop variety trials. The RBM applies the dates by complying with the following rules: i) Operations scheduled in the

  1. Calibrated Properties Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, C.F.; Liu, H.H.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00 (CRWMS M and O 1999c). These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions

  2. Calibrated Properties Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ahlers, C.; Liu, H.

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this Analysis/Model Report (AMR) is to document the Calibrated Properties Model that provides calibrated parameter sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models for the Yucca Mountain Site Characterization Project (YMP). This work was performed in accordance with the ''AMR Development Plan for U0035 Calibrated Properties Model REV00. These calibrated property sets include matrix and fracture parameters for the UZ Flow and Transport Model (UZ Model), drift seepage models, drift-scale and mountain-scale coupled-processes models, and Total System Performance Assessment (TSPA) models as well as Performance Assessment (PA) and other participating national laboratories and government agencies. These process models provide the necessary framework to test conceptual hypotheses of flow and transport at different scales and predict flow and transport behavior under a variety of climatic and thermal-loading conditions

  3. Baseflow simulation using SWAT model in an inland river basin in Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Luo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Baseflow is an important component in hydrological modeling. The complex streamflow recession process complicates the baseflow simulation. In order to simulate the snow and/or glacier melt dominated streamflow receding quickly during the high-flow period but very slowly during the low-flow period in rivers in arid and cold northwest China, the current one-reservoir baseflow approach in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool model was extended by adding a slow- reacting reservoir and applying it to the Manas River basin in the Tianshan Mountains. Meanwhile, a digital filter program was employed to separate baseflow from streamflow records for comparisons. Results indicated that the two-reservoir method yielded much better results than the one-reservoir one in reproducing streamflow processes, and the low-flow estimation was improved markedly. Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values at the calibration and validation stages are 0.68 and 0.62 for the one-reservoir case, and 0.76 and 0.69 for the two-reservoir case. The filter-based method estimated the baseflow index as 0.60, while the model-based as 0.45. The filter-based baseflow responded almost immediately to surface runoff occurrence at onset of rising limb, while the model-based responded with a delay. In consideration of watershed surface storage retention and soil freezing/thawing effects on infiltration and recharge during initial snowmelt season, a delay response is considered to be more reasonable. However, a more detailed description of freezing/thawing processes should be included in soil modules so as to determine recharge to aquifer during these processes, and thus an accurate onset point of rising limb of the simulated baseflow.

  4. SWAT Model Prediction of Phosphorus Loading in a South Carolina Karst Watershed with a Downstream Embayment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Manoj K. Jha; Thomas M. Williams; Amy E. Edwards; Daniel R.. Hitchcock

    2013-01-01

    The SWAT model was used to predict total phosphorus (TP) loadings for a 1555-ha karst watershed—Chapel Branch Creek (CBC)—which drains to a lake via a reservoir-like embayment (R-E). The model was first tested for monthly streamflow predictions from tributaries draining three potential source areas as well as the downstream R-E, followed by TP loadings using data...

  5. Single-objective vs. multi-objective autocalibration in modelling total suspended solids and phosphorus in a small agricultural watershed with SWAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasolomanana, Santatriniaina Denise; Lessard, Paul; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

    2012-01-01

    To obtain greater precision in modelling small agricultural watersheds, a shorter simulation time step is beneficial. A daily time step better represents the dynamics of pollutants in the river and provides more realistic simulation results. However, with a daily evaluation performance, good fits are rarely obtained. With the Shuffled Complex Evolution (SCE) method embedded in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), two calibration approaches are available, single-objective or multi-objective optimization. The goal of the present study is to evaluate which approach can improve the daily performance with SWAT, in modelling flow (Q), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP). The influence of weights assigned to the different variables included in the objective function has also been tested. The results showed that: (i) the model performance depends not only on the choice of calibration approach, but essentially on the influential parameters; (ii) the multi-objective calibration estimating at once all parameters related to all measured variables is the best approach to model Q, TSS and TP; (iii) changing weights does not improve model performance; and (iv) with a single-objective optimization, an excellent water quality modelling performance may hide a loss of performance of predicting flows and unbalanced internal model components.

  6. Temporal diagnostic analysis of the SWAT model to detect dominant periods of poor model performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guse, Björn; Reusser, Dominik E.; Fohrer, Nicola

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological models generally include thresholds and non-linearities, such as snow-rain-temperature thresholds, non-linear reservoirs, infiltration thresholds and the like. When relating observed variables to modelling results, formal methods often calculate performance metrics over long periods, reporting model performance with only few numbers. Such approaches are not well suited to compare dominating processes between reality and model and to better understand when thresholds and non-linearities are driving model results. We present a combination of two temporally resolved model diagnostic tools to answer when a model is performing (not so) well and what the dominant processes are during these periods. We look at the temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivities and model performance to answer this question. For this, the eco-hydrological SWAT model is applied in the Treene lowland catchment in Northern Germany. As a first step, temporal dynamics of parameter sensitivities are analyzed using the Fourier Amplitude Sensitivity test (FAST). The sensitivities of the eight model parameters investigated show strong temporal variations. High sensitivities were detected for two groundwater (GW_DELAY, ALPHA_BF) and one evaporation parameters (ESCO) most of the time. The periods of high parameter sensitivity can be related to different phases of the hydrograph with dominances of the groundwater parameters in the recession phases and of ESCO in baseflow and resaturation periods. Surface runoff parameters show high parameter sensitivities in phases of a precipitation event in combination with high soil water contents. The dominant parameters give indication for the controlling processes during a given period for the hydrological catchment. The second step included the temporal analysis of model performance. For each time step, model performance was characterized with a "finger print" consisting of a large set of performance measures. These finger prints were clustered into

  7. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Xin; Wang, Sufen; Xue, Han; Singh, Vijay P

    2015-01-01

    Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET) response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1) and summer maize (scenario 2) by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  8. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  9. Improving streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model by assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Amol; Ramsankaran, RAAJ

    2017-12-01

    This article presents a study carried out using EnKF based assimilation of coarser-scale SMOS soil moisture retrievals to improve the streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model in a large catchment. This study has been carried out in Munneru river catchment, India, which is about 10,156 km2. In this study, an EnkF based new approach is proposed for improving the inherent vertical coupling of soil layers of SWAT hydrological model during soil moisture data assimilation. Evaluation of the vertical error correlation obtained between surface and subsurface layers indicates that the vertical coupling can be improved significantly using ensemble of soil storages compared to the traditional static soil storages based EnKF approach. However, the improvements in the simulated streamflow are moderate, which is due to the limitations in SWAT model in reflecting the profile soil moisture updates in surface runoff computations. Further, it is observed that the durability of streamflow improvements is longer when the assimilation system effectively updates the subsurface flow component. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that the passive microwave-based coarser-scale soil moisture products like SMOS hold significant potential to improve the streamflow estimates when assimilating into large-scale distributed hydrological models operating at a daily time step.

  10. Estimation of transported pollutant load in Ardila catchment using the SWAT model

    OpenAIRE

    DURÃO, A.; LEITÃO, P.; BRITO, D.; FERNANDES, R.M.; NEVES, R.; MORAIS, M.

    2011-01-01

    Excess of organic matter and nutrients in the water body promotes algae blooms, which can accelerate the eutrophication process, situation often observed in the Ardila river. This river was identified as very polluted and classified as critical for Alqueva-Pedrogão System. The aim of this study was to estimate the transported nutrients load in a transboundary catchment using the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model and to determine the contribution off nutrients load in the entire catc...

  11. Aplicación del modelo hidrológico-swat-en una microcuenca agrícola de La Pampa ondulada Application of the hydrologic model - swat - on a micro agricultural basin of the rolling Pampa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Behrends Kraemer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available El modelado hidrológico es a menudo el primer paso en el desarrollo de sistemas de decisión espacial para identificaráreas vulnerables a la contaminación por nutrientes, pesticidas así como también a contaminantes biológicos. En este sentido el SWAT (Soil and Water Assesment Tool fue desarrollado para predecir impactos de las prácticas de manejo de las tierras en las aguas, sedimentos y agroquímicos en cuencas hidrográficas con diferentes suelos, usos y prácticas en largos períodos de tiempo. Aunque el mismo está siendo aplicado en todo el mundo, todavía no esta difundido su uso en la Argentina, no encontrándose al momento reportes al respecto. Este modelo se utilizó en una microcuenca agrícola de la Pampa Ondulada (Argentina y fue calibrado y validado utilizando los valores de escurrimientos medidos in situ. Se encontraron buenas eficiencias a escala diaria (R²: 0,55; R² ENS: 0,52 y pobres a escala mensual (R²: 0,34; R² ENS: 0,04. En la calibración, los escurrimientos fueron sobreestimados en un 31,8% y 32,6% para la escala mensual y diaria respectivamente, mientras que en la validación se sobreestimó un 42,5% para los valores mensuales y un 41,2% para los diarios. La aplicación del SWAT en esta microcuenca agrícola resultó auspiciosa y conduce a la inclusión de dicho modelo en futuros trabajos.A hydrological model is often the first step for the development of spatial decision systems in order to identify vulnerable areas to the pollution by nutrients, pesticides as well as biological contaminants. The SWAT model was developed to predict the impact of land management on water, agrochemicals and sediments in hydrographical basins with different soils, land uses and practices for long time periods. This model is being used all over the world but it has not been applied in Argentina until present. The SWAT model was used in an agricultural microbasin in the Rolling Pampa (Argentina and was calibrated and validated

  12. Spatial and temporal changes of water quality, and SWAT modeling of Vosvozis river basin, North Greece.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boskidis, Ioannis; Gikas, Georgios D; Pisinaras, Vassilios; Tsihrintzis, Vassilios A

    2010-09-01

    The results of an investigation of the quantitative and qualitative characteristics of Vosvozis river in Northern Greece is presented. For the purposes of this study, three gaging stations were installed along Vosvozis river, where water quantity and quality measurements were conducted for the period August 2005 to November 2006. Water discharge, temperature, pH, dissolved oxygen (DO) and electrical conductivity (EC) were measured in situ using appropriate equipment. The collected water samples were analyzed in the laboratory for the determination of nitrate, nitrite and ammonium nitrogen, total Kjeldalh nitrogen (TKN), orthophosphate (OP), total phosphorus (TP), COD, and BOD. Agricultural diffuse sources provided the major source of nitrate nitrogen loads during the wet period. During the dry period (from June to October), the major nutrient (N, P) and COD, BOD sources were point sources. The trophic status of Vosvozis river during the monitoring period was determined as eutrophic, based on Dodds classification scheme. Moreover, the SWAT model was used to simulate hydrographs and nutrient loads. SWAT was validated with the measured data. Predicted hydrographs and pollutographs were plotted against observed values and showed good agreement. The validated model was used to test eight alternative scenarios concerning different cropping management approaches. The results of these scenarios indicate that nonpoint source pollution is the prevailing type of pollution in the study area. The SWAT model was found to satisfactorily simulate processes in ephemeral river basins and is an effective tool in water resources management.

  13. Assessment of soil erosion risk in Komering watershed, South Sumatera, using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsabilla, A.; Kusratmoko, E.

    2017-07-01

    Changes in land use watershed led to environmental degradation. Estimated loss of soil erosion is often difficult due to some factors such as topography, land use, climate and human activities. This study aims to predict soil erosion hazard and sediment yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model. The SWAT was chosen because it can simulate the model with limited data. The study area is Komering watershed (806,001 Ha) in South Sumatera Province. There are two factors land management intervention: 1) land with agriculture, and 2) land with cultivation. These factors selected in accordance with the regulations of spatial plan area. Application of the SWAT demonstrated that the model can predict surface runoff, soil erosion loss and sediment yield. The erosion risk for each watershed can be classified and predicted its changes based on the scenarios which arranged. In this paper, we also discussed the relationship between the distribution of erosion risk and watershed's characteristics in a spatial perspective.

  14. Hydrological modeling of the pipestone creek watershed using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT: Assessing impacts of wetland drainage on hydrology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cesar Perez-Valdivia

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Study region: Prairie Pothole Region of North America. Study focus: The Prairie Pothole Region of North America has experienced extensive wetland drainage, potentially impacting peak flows and annual flow volumes. Some of this drainage has occurred in closed basins, possibly impacting lake water levels of these systems. In this study we investigated the potential impact of wetland drainage on peak flows and annual volumes in a 2242 km2 watershed located in southeastern Saskatchewan (Canada using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. New hydrological insights: The SWAT model, which had been calibrated and validated at daily and monthly time steps for the 1997–2009 period, was used to assess the impact of wetland drainage using three hypothetical scenarios that drained 15, 30, and 50% of the non-contributing drainage area. Results of these simulations suggested that drainage increased spring peak flows by about 50, 79 and 113%, respectively while annual flow volumes increased by about 43, 68, and 98% in each scenario. Years that were wetter than normal presented increased peak flows and annual flow volumes below the average of the simulated period. Alternatively, summer peak flows presented smaller increases in terms of percentages during the simulated period. Keywords: Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, Wetland drainage, Peak flow, Annual volume, Prairie Pothole Region

  15. [Impact of changes in land use and climate on the runoff in Liuxihe Watershed based on SWAT model].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Yu-zhi; Zhang, Zheng-dong; Meng, Jin-hua

    2015-04-01

    SWAT model, an extensively used distributed hydrological model, was used to quantitatively analyze the influences of changes in land use and climate on the runoff at watershed scale. Liuxihe Watershed' s SWAT model was established and three scenarios were set. The calibration and validation at three hydrological stations of Wenquan, Taipingchang and Nangang showed that the three factors of Wenquan station just only reached the standard in validated period, and the other two stations had relative error (RE) 0.8 and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency valve (Ens) > 0.75, suggesting that SWAT model was appropriate for simulating runoff response to land use change and climate variability in Liuxihe watershed. According to the integrated scenario simulation, the annual runoff increased by 11.23 m3 x s(-1) from 2001 to 2010 compared with the baseline period from 1991 to 2000, among which, the land use change caused an annual runoff reduction of 0.62 m3 x s(-1), whereas climate variability caused an annual runoff increase of 11.85 m3 x s(-1). Apparently, the impact of climate variability was stronger than that of land use change. On the other hand, the scenario simulation of extreme land use showed that compared with the land use in 2000, the annual runoff of the farmland scenario and the grassland scenario increased by 2.7% and 0.5% respectively, while that of the forest land scenario were reduced by 0.7%, which suggested that forest land had an ability of diversion closure. Furthermore, the scenario simulation of climatic variability indicated that the change of river runoff correlated positively with precipitation change (increase of 11.6% in annual runoff with increase of 10% in annual precipitation) , but negatively with air temperature change (reduction of 0.8% in annual runoff with increase of 1 degrees C in annual mean air temperature), which showed that the impact of precipitation variability was stronger than that of air temperature change. Therefore, in face of climate

  16. Assessment of the SWAT model to simulate a watershed with limited available data in the Pampas region, Argentina.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Romagnoli, Martín; Portapila, Margarita; Rigalli, Alfredo; Maydana, Gisela; Burgués, Martín; García, Carlos M

    2017-10-15

    Argentina has been among the world leaders in the production and export of agricultural products since the 1990s. The Carcarañá River Lower Basin (CRLB), a cropland of the Pampas region supplied by extensive rainfall, is located in an area with few streamgauging and other hydrologic/water-quality stations. Therefore, limited hydrologic data are available resulting in limited water-resources assessment. This work explores the application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the CRLB in the Santa Fe province of the Pampas region. The analysis of field and remote-sensing data characterizing hydrology, water quality, soil types, land use/land cover, management practices, and crop yield, guarantee a comprehensive SWAT modeling approach. A combined manual and automated calibration and validation process incorporating sensitivity and uncertainty analysis is performed using information concerning interior watershed processes. Eleven N/P fertilizer rates are selected to simulate the impact of N fertilizer on crop yield, plant uptake, as well as runoff and leaching losses. Different indices (partial factor productivity, agronomic efficiency, apparent crop recovery efficiency of applied nutrient, internal utilization efficiency, and physiological efficiency) are considered to assess nitrogen-use efficiency. The overall quality of the fit is satisfactory considering the input data limitations. This work provides, for the first time in Argentina, a reliable tool to simulate yield response to soil quality and water availability capable to meet defined environmental targets to support decision making on planning public policies and private activities on the Pampas region. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Integrasi Model SWAT dan SIG dalam Upaya Menekan Laju Erosi DAD Deli, Sumatera Utara

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Riki Rahmad

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk melakukan simulasi model SWAT dalam menghitung besarnya laju erosi DAS, menguji kesesuaian model dalam memprediksi erosi, serta menentukan skenario penggunaan lahan yang paling optimal menurunkan laju erosi. Penelitian ini dilakukan di DAS Deli, Sumatera Utara. Pada penelitian ini analisis SWAT dilakukan dengan bantuan Sistem Informasi Geografi (SIG melalui 4 proses yaitu delineasi, pembentukan Hydrological Response Unit (HRU, pengolahan data dan simulasi, serta proses visualisasi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan besarnya erosi rata-rata DAS Deli adalah 410,72 ton/ha/tahun. Hasil ini menunjukkan DAS Deli termasuk kedalam Tingkat Bahaya Erosi (TBE kategori Berat dengan kriteria sangat berat 37,04%, berat 17,07%, sedang 21,46%, ringan 17,38%, dan sangat ringan 7,04%. Uji validasi model menunjukkan bahwa ada hubungan positif antara debit model dan observasi dimana persentase perbedaan nilainya sangat kecil yang artinya besarnya debit model hampir sangat mendekati besarnya debit observasi, serta model dikategorikan sangat baik dalam melakukan simulasi debit aliran harian pada Sungai Deli. Metode skenario adalah berdasarkan analisis TBE. Hasil skenario penggunaan lahan berhasil menurunkan laju erosi DAS Deli 34,78% menjadi 267,88 ton/ha/tahun. This study aims to conduct SWAT model simulation calculation of the rate of erosion of the watershed, testing the suitability of the model in predicting erosion, land use scenarios and determine the most optimal decrease the rate of erosion. This research was conducted in the watershed Deli, North Sumatra. In this study, SWAT analysis performed with the help of Geographical Information Systems (GIS through 4 delineation process, namely, the establishment of Hydrological Response Unit (HRU, data processing and simulation, as well as the visualization process. The results show the average amount of erosion DAS Deli is 410.72 ton/ha/year. These results indicate DAS Deli included into

  18. Calibrated Properties Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghezzehej, T.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this model report is to document the calibrated properties model that provides calibrated property sets for unsaturated zone (UZ) flow and transport process models (UZ models). The calibration of the property sets is performed through inverse modeling. This work followed, and was planned in, ''Technical Work Plan (TWP) for: Unsaturated Zone Flow Analysis and Model Report Integration'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169654], Sections 1.2.6 and 2.1.1.6). Direct inputs to this model report were derived from the following upstream analysis and model reports: ''Analysis of Hydrologic Properties Data'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170038]); ''Development of Numerical Grids for UZ Flow and Transport Modeling'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169855]); ''Simulation of Net Infiltration for Present-Day and Potential Future Climates'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170007]); ''Geologic Framework Model'' (GFM2000) (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170029]). Additionally, this model report incorporates errata of the previous version and closure of the Key Technical Issue agreement TSPAI 3.26 (Section 6.2.2 and Appendix B), and it is revised for improved transparency

  19. An Assessment of Mean Areal Precipitation Methods on Simulated Stream Flow: A SWAT Model Performance Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Zeiger

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Accurate mean areal precipitation (MAP estimates are essential input forcings for hydrologic models. However, the selection of the most accurate method to estimate MAP can be daunting because there are numerous methods to choose from (e.g., proximate gauge, direct weighted average, surface-fitting, and remotely sensed methods. Multiple methods (n = 19 were used to estimate MAP with precipitation data from 11 distributed monitoring sites, and 4 remotely sensed data sets. Each method was validated against the hydrologic model simulated stream flow using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. SWAT was validated using a split-site method and the observed stream flow data from five nested-scale gauging sites in a mixed-land-use watershed of the central USA. Cross-validation results showed the error associated with surface-fitting and remotely sensed methods ranging from −4.5 to −5.1%, and −9.8 to −14.7%, respectively. Split-site validation results showed the percent bias (PBIAS values that ranged from −4.5 to −160%. Second order polynomial functions especially overestimated precipitation and subsequent stream flow simulations (PBIAS = −160 in the headwaters. The results indicated that using an inverse-distance weighted, linear polynomial interpolation or multiquadric function method to estimate MAP may improve SWAT model simulations. Collectively, the results highlight the importance of spatially distributed observed hydroclimate data for precipitation and subsequent steam flow estimations. The MAP methods demonstrated in the current work can be used to reduce hydrologic model uncertainty caused by watershed physiographic differences.

  20. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...

  1. Advancing representation of hydrologic processes in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) through integration of the TOPographic MODEL (TOPMODEL) features

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, J.; Wu, Y.

    2012-01-01

    This paper presents a study of the integration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model and the TOPographic MODEL (TOPMODEL) features for enhancing the physical representation of hydrologic processes. In SWAT, four hydrologic processes, which are surface runoff, baseflow, groundwater re-evaporation and deep aquifer percolation, are modeled by using a group of empirical equations. The empirical equations usually constrain the simulation capability of relevant processes. To replace these equations and to model the influences of topography and water table variation on streamflow generation, the TOPMODEL features are integrated into SWAT, and a new model, the so-called SWAT-TOP, is developed. In the new model, the process of deep aquifer percolation is removed, the concept of groundwater re-evaporation is refined, and the processes of surface runoff and baseflow are remodeled. Consequently, three parameters in SWAT are discarded, and two new parameters to reflect the TOPMODEL features are introduced. SWAT-TOP and SWAT are applied to the East River basin in South China, and the results reveal that, compared with SWAT, the new model can provide a more reasonable simulation of the hydrologic processes of surface runoff, groundwater re-evaporation, and baseflow. This study evidences that an established hydrologic model can be further improved by integrating the features of another model, which is a possible way to enhance our understanding of the workings of catchments.

  2. Modification of SWAT model for simulation of organic matter in Korean watersheds.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jang, Jae-Ho; Jung, Kwang-Wook; Gyeong Yoon, Chun

    2012-01-01

    The focus of water quality modeling of Korean streams needs to be shifted from dissolved oxygen to algae or organic matter. In particular, the structure of water quality models should be modified to simulate the biochemical oxygen demand (BOD), which is a key factor in calculating total maximum daily loads (TMDLs) in Korea, using 5-day BOD determined in the laboratory (Bottle BOD(5)). Considering the limitations in simulating organic matter under domestic conditions, we attempted to model total organic carbon (TOC) as well as BOD by using a watershed model. For this purpose, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was modified and extended to achieve better correspondence between the measured and simulated BOD and TOC concentrations. For simulated BOD in the period 2004-2008, the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient increased from a value of -2.54 to 0.61. Another indicator of organic matter, namely, the simulated TOC concentration showed that the modified SWAT adequately reflected the observed values. The improved model can be used to predict organic matter and hence, may be a potential decision-making tool for TMDLs. However, it needs further testing for longer simulation periods and other catchments.

  3. Improvement and application of the PCPF-1@SWAT2012 model for predicting pesticide transport: A case study of the Sakura River watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tu, Le Hoang; Boulange, Julien; Iwafune, Takashi; Yadav, Ishwar Chandra; Watanabe, Hirozumi

    2018-04-15

    The PCPF-1@SWAT model was previously developed to simulate the fate and transport of rice pesticide in watersheds. However, the current model is deficient in characterize the rice paddy area and is incompatible with the ArcSWAT2012 program. In this study, we modified original PCPF1@SWAT model to develop new PCPF1@SWAT2012 model to address the deficiency of rice paddy area and utilizing the ArcSWAT2012 program. Next, the new model was applied in Sakura River watershed, Ibaraki, Japan in order to simulate the transport of four herbicides including mefenacet, pretilachlor, bensulfuron-methyl and imazosulfuron. The result showed that the simulated water flow rate by the PCPF1@SWAT2012 was well predicted with the observed data. The calculated NSE (0.73) and PBIAS (-20.38), suggested the satisfactory performance of the model. Besides, the concentrations of herbicides simulated by the PCPF-1@SWAT2012 model were in good agreement with the observed data. Statistical indices, NSE and RMSE estimated for mefenacet (0.69 and 0.18), pretilachlor (0.86 and 0.18), bensulfuronmethyl (0.46 and 0.21) and imazosulfuron (0.64 and 0.28) indicated satisfactory predictions, respectively. The PCPF-1@SWAT2012 model is capable of well simulating the water flow rate and transport of herbicides in given watershed, comprising different land use types, including rice paddy area. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.

  4. ESTIMATIVA DO BALANÇO SEDIMENTAR DA BACIA DO RIO TIJUCAS (SC-BRASIL A PARTIR DA APLICAÇÃO DO MODELO HIDROLÓGICO SWAT / ESTIMATE OF SEDIMENT BUDGET OF THE TIJUCAS RIVER BASIN APPLYING SWAT HYDROLOGIC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean Berná Paim

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available Adopt a basin as a hydrological unit to understand the physical processes related to the water and sediment production is important because its characteristics (area, shape and topography can determine its use in a sustainable manner. This study is aim in the test of the applicability of hydrologic model SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool in the Tijucas River Basin to quantify the water and sediment production along it sub-basins. Together, geoprocessing techniques were applied with the creation of a database of geographical information to describe the region. On this database is included the daily precipitation an temperature data of the gauges distributed on the watershed, soil data, a land use map and the digital elevation model (DEM to create the Hydrologic Response Units (HRU’s. A time series with flow values and sediment concentration measured are very important to calibrate and validate the model output parameters. After the calibration of the initial results, the Flow Gauge number 102 presented a Nash and Sutcliffe Coefficient - COE = 0.6 indicating a good adjust of the model. The results were used to create a sediment production map for Tijucas River Basin, when the 10 years average ranged between 0.5 ton/ha and 9.0 ton/ha in some sub-basins.

  5. Development of Web-Based RECESS Model for Estimating Baseflow Using SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gwanjae Lee

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available Groundwater has received increasing attention as an important strategic water resource for adaptation to climate change. In this regard, the separation of baseflow from streamflow and the analysis of recession curves make a significant contribution to integrated river basin management. The United States Geological Survey (USGS RECESS model adopting the master-recession curve (MRC method can enhance the accuracy with which baseflow may be separated from streamflow, compared to other baseflow-separation schemes that are more limited in their ability to reflect various watershed/aquifer characteristics. The RECESS model has been widely used for the analysis of hydrographs, but the applications using RECESS were only available through Microsoft-Disk Operating System (MS-DOS. Thus, this study aims to develop a web-based RECESS model for easy separation of baseflow from streamflow, with easy applications for ungauged regions. RECESS on the web derived the alpha factor, which is a baseflow recession constant in the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, and this variable was provided to SWAT as the input. The results showed that the alpha factor estimated from the web-based RECESS model improved the predictions of streamflow and recession. Furthermore, these findings showed that the baseflow characteristics of the ungauged watersheds were influenced by the land use and slope angle of watersheds, as well as by precipitation and streamflow.

  6. Application of the SWAT model to an AMD-affected river (Meca River, SW Spain). Estimation of transported pollutant load

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galván, L.; Olías, M.; Fernandez de Villarán, R.; Domingo Santos, J. M.; Nieto, J. M.; Sarmiento, A. M.; Cánovas, C. R.

    2009-10-01

    SummaryThe Meca River is highly contaminated by acid mine drainage coming from the Tharsis mining district, belonging to the Iberian Pyrite Belt. This river is regulated by the Sancho reservoir (58 hm 3), with a pH close to 4.2. In this work, the load transported by the Meca River to the Sancho reservoir has been assessed. Due to the lack of streamflow data, the hydrological behaviour of the Meca River basin has been simulated using the SWAT model. The model has been calibrated against registered daily inflows of the Sancho reservoir (1982-2000), excluding the hydrological years 2000/2001 and 2001/2002 that were kept for the validation. The results were satisfactory; the evaluation coefficients for monthly calibration were: r = 0.85 (Pearson's correlation coefficient), NSE = 0.83 (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient) and DV = 1.08 (runoff volume deviation). The main uncertainty was the calibration during low water because of the poor accuracy in the measurement of the inputs to the reservoir in these conditions. Discharge and dissolved concentration relationships for different elements were obtained from hydrochemical samplings, which allowed us to estimate the element pollutant load transported to the reservoir: 418 ton/year of Al, 8024 ton/year of SO 4, 121 ton/year of Zn, etc. Based on these loads, concentrations in the reservoir were calculated for some elements. Apart from Mn and Sr, good adjustment between calculated and measured values was observed (±20% for Ca, Co, Li, Mg, Na, Ni, Zn and SO 4). Capsule: Hydrological model combined with water quality data show how pollution by AMD can generate huge loads of contaminants acidifying streams and reservoirs.

  7. How to: understanding SWAT model uncertainty relative to measured results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watershed models are being relied upon to contribute to most policy-making decisions of watershed management, and the demand for an accurate accounting of complete model uncertainty is rising. Generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation (GLUE) is a widely used method for quantifying uncertainty i...

  8. Spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on hydrology from the perspective of runoff generation mechanism using SWAT model with evolving parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y.; Chang, J.; Luo, L.

    2017-12-01

    It is of great importance for water resources management to model the truly hydrological process under changing environment, especially under significant changes of underlying surfaces like the Wei River Bain (WRB) where the subsurface hydrology is highly influenced by human activities, and to systematically investigate the interactions among LULC change, streamflow variation and changes in runoff generation process. Therefore, we proposed the idea of evolving parameters in hydrological model (SWAT) to reflect the changes in physical environment with different LULC conditions. Then with these evolving parameters, the spatiotemporal impacts of LULC changes on streamflow were quantified, and qualitative analysis was conducted to further explore how LULC changes affect the streamflow from the perspective of runoff generation mechanism. Results indicate the following: 1) evolving parameter calibration is not only effective but necessary to ensure the validity of the model when dealing with significant changes in underlying surfaces due to human activities. 2) compared to the baseline period, the streamflow in wet seasons increased in the 1990s but decreased in the 2000s. While at yearly and dry seasonal scales, the streamflow decreased in both two decades; 3) the expansion of cropland is the major contributor to the reduction of surface water component, thus causing the decline in streamflow at yearly and dry seasonal scales. While compared to the 1990s, the expansions of woodland in the middle stream and grassland in the downstream are the main stressors that increased the soil water component, thus leading to the more decline of the streamflow in the 2000s.

  9. The Impacts of Different Meteorology Data Sets on Nitrogen Fate and Transport in the SWAT Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, we investigated how different meteorology data sets impacts nitrogen fate and transport responses in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We used two meteorology data sets: National Climatic Data Center (observed) and Mesoscale Model 5/Weather Research ...

  10. Improvement of the R-SWAT-FME framework to support multiple variables and multi-objective functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang

    2014-01-01

    Application of numerical models is a common practice in the environmental field for investigation and prediction of natural and anthropogenic processes. However, process knowledge, parameter identifiability, sensitivity, and uncertainty analyses are still a challenge for large and complex mathematical models such as the hydrological/water quality model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, the previously developed R program language-SWAT-Flexible Modeling Environment (R-SWAT-FME) was improved to support multiple model variables and objectives at multiple time steps (i.e., daily, monthly, and annually). This expansion is significant because there is usually more than one variable (e.g., water, nutrients, and pesticides) of interest for environmental models like SWAT. To further facilitate its easy use, we also simplified its application requirements without compromising its merits, such as the user-friendly interface. To evaluate the performance of the improved framework, we used a case study focusing on both streamflow and nitrate nitrogen in the Upper Iowa River Basin (above Marengo) in the United States. Results indicated that the R-SWAT-FME performs well and is comparable to the built-in auto-calibration tool in multi-objective model calibration. Overall, the enhanced R-SWAT-FME can be useful for the SWAT community, and the methods we used can also be valuable for wrapping potential R packages with other environmental models.

  11. Observation models in radiocarbon calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, M.D.; Nicholls, G.K.

    2001-01-01

    The observation model underlying any calibration process dictates the precise mathematical details of the calibration calculations. Accordingly it is important that an appropriate observation model is used. Here this is illustrated with reference to the use of reservoir offsets where the standard calibration approach is based on a different model to that which the practitioners clearly believe is being applied. This sort of error can give rise to significantly erroneous calibration results. (author). 12 refs., 1 fig

  12. Assessment of Riparian Buffer Impacts Within the Little River Watershed in Georgia USA with the SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Computer based hydrologic and water quality models have proven to be useful tools for examining alternative management scenarios and their impact on the environment. This examination can be an important component of watershed-scale evaluations. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), is a water...

  13. CALIBRATED HYDRODYNAMIC MODEL

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sezar Gülbaz

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The land development and increase in urbanization in a watershed affect water quantityand water quality. On one hand, urbanization provokes the adjustment of geomorphicstructure of the streams, ultimately raises peak flow rate which causes flood; on theother hand, it diminishes water quality which results in an increase in Total SuspendedSolid (TSS. Consequently, sediment accumulation in downstream of urban areas isobserved which is not preferred for longer life of dams. In order to overcome thesediment accumulation problem in dams, the amount of TSS in streams and inwatersheds should be taken under control. Low Impact Development (LID is a BestManagement Practice (BMP which may be used for this purpose. It is a land planningand engineering design method which is applied in managing storm water runoff inorder to reduce flooding as well as simultaneously improve water quality. LID includestechniques to predict suspended solid loads in surface runoff generated over imperviousurban surfaces. In this study, the impact of LID-BMPs on surface runoff and TSS isinvestigated by employing a calibrated hydrodynamic model for Sazlidere Watershedwhich is located in Istanbul, Turkey. For this purpose, a calibrated hydrodynamicmodel was developed by using Environmental Protection Agency Storm WaterManagement Model (EPA SWMM. For model calibration and validation, we set up arain gauge and a flow meter into the field and obtain rainfall and flow rate data. Andthen, we select several LID types such as retention basins, vegetative swales andpermeable pavement and we obtain their influence on peak flow rate and pollutantbuildup and washoff for TSS. Consequently, we observe the possible effects ofLID on surface runoff and TSS in Sazlidere Watershed.

  14. SURF Model Calibration Strategy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menikoff, Ralph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-03-10

    SURF and SURFplus are high explosive reactive burn models for shock initiation and propagation of detonation waves. They are engineering models motivated by the ignition & growth concept of high spots and for SURFplus a second slow reaction for the energy release from carbon clustering. A key feature of the SURF model is that there is a partial decoupling between model parameters and detonation properties. This enables reduced sets of independent parameters to be calibrated sequentially for the initiation and propagation regimes. Here we focus on a methodology for tting the initiation parameters to Pop plot data based on 1-D simulations to compute a numerical Pop plot. In addition, the strategy for tting the remaining parameters for the propagation regime and failure diameter is discussed.

  15. Modeling pesticide loadings from the San Joaquin watershed into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, H.; Zhang, M.

    2016-12-01

    The Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta is an ecologically rich, hydrologically complex area that serves as the hub of California's water supply. However, pesticides have been routinely detected in the Delta waterways, with concentrations exceeding the benchmark for the protection of aquatic life. Pesticide loadings into the Delta are partially attributed to the San Joaquin watershed, a highly productive agricultural watershed located upstream. Therefore, this study aims to simulate pesticide loadings to the Delta by applying the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model to the San Joaquin watershed, under the support of the USDA-ARS Delta Area-Wide Pest Management Program. Pesticide use patterns in the San Joaquin watershed were characterized by combining the California Pesticide Use Reporting (PUR) database and GIS analysis. Sensitivity/uncertainty analyses and multi-site calibration were performed in the simulation of stream flow, sediment, and pesticide loads along the San Joaquin River. Model performance was evaluated using a combination of graphic and quantitative measures. Preliminary results indicated that stream flow was satisfactorily simulated along the San Joaquin River and the major eastern tributaries, whereas stream flow was less accurately simulated in the western tributaries, which are ephemeral small streams that peak during winter storm events and are mainly fed by irrigation return flow during the growing season. The most sensitive parameters to stream flow were CN2, SOL_AWC, HRU_SLP, SLSUBBSN, SLSOIL, GWQMN and GW_REVAP. Regionalization of parameters is important as the sensitivity of parameters vary significantly spatially. In terms of evaluation metric, NSE tended to overrate model performance when compared to PBIAS. Anticipated results will include (1) pesticide use pattern analysis, (2) calibration and validation of stream flow, sediment, and pesticide loads, and (3) characterization of spatial patterns and temporal trends of pesticide yield.

  16. Modeling pesticide diuron loading from the San Joaquin watershed into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta using SWAT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Huajin; Luo, Yuzhou; Potter, Christopher; Moran, Patrick J; Grieneisen, Michael L; Zhang, Minghua

    2017-09-15

    Quantifying pesticide loading into the Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta of northern California is critical for water quality management in the region, and potentially useful for biological weed control planning. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to model streamflow, sediment, and pesticide diuron loading in the San Joaquin watershed, a major contributing area to the elevated pesticide levels in the downstream Delta. The Sequential Uncertainty Fitting version 2 (SUFI-2) algorithm was employed to perform calibration and uncertainty analysis. A combination of performance measures (PMs) and standardized performance evaluation criteria (PEC) was applied to evaluate model performance, while prediction uncertainty was quantified by 95% prediction uncertainty band (95PPU). Results showed that streamflow simulation was at least "satisfactory" at most stations, with more than 50% of the observed data bracketed by the 95PPU. Sediment simulation was rated as at least "satisfactory" based on two PMs, and diuron simulation was judged as "good" by all PMs. The 95PPU of sediment and diuron bracketed about 40% and 30% of the observed data, respectively. Significant correlations were observed between the diuron loads, and precipitation, streamflow, and the current and antecedent pesticide use. Results also showed that the majority (>70%) of agricultural diuron was transported during winter months, when direct exposure of biocontrol agents to diuron runoff is limited. However, exposure in the dry season could be a concern because diuron is relatively persistent in aquatic system. This study not only provides valuable information for the development of biological weed control plan in the Delta, but also serves as a foundation for the continued research on calibration, evaluation, and uncertainty analysis of spatially distributed, physically based hydrologic models. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. Interpretation of Landscape Scale SWAT Model Outputs in the Western Lake Erie Basin: Potential Implications for Conservation Decision-Making

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, M. V. V.; Behrman, K. D.; Atwood, J. D.; White, M. J.; Norfleet, M. L.

    2017-12-01

    There is substantial interest in understanding how conservation practices and agricultural management impact water quality, particularly phosphorus dynamics, in the Western Lake Erie Basin (WLEB). In 2016, the US and Canada accepted total phosphorus (TP) load targets recommended by the Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement Annex 4 Objectives and Targets Task Team; these were 6,000 MTA delivered to Lake Erie and 3,660 MTA delivered to WLEB. Outstanding challenges include development of metrics to determine achievement of these goals, establishment of sufficient monitoring capacity to assess progress, and identification of appropriate conservation practices to achieve the most cost-effective results. Process-based modeling can help inform decisions to address these challenges more quickly than can system observation. As part of the NRCS-led Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP), the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was used to predict impacts of conservation practice adoption reported by farmers on TP loss and load delivery dynamics in WLEB. SWAT results suggest that once the conservation practices in place in 2003-06 and 2012 are fully functional, TP loads delivered to WLEB will average 3,175 MTA and 3,084 MTA, respectively. In other words, SWAT predicts that currently adopted practices are sufficient to meet Annex 4 TP load targets. Yet, WLEB gauging stations show Annex 4 goals are unmet. There are several reasons the model predictions and current monitoring efforts are not in agreement: 1. SWAT assumes full functionality of simulated conservation practices; 2. SWAT does not simulate changing management over time, nor impacts of past management on legacy loads; 3. SWAT assumes WLEB hydrological system equilibrium under simulated management. The SWAT model runs used to construct the scenarios that informed the Annex 4 targets were similarly constrained by model assumptions. It takes time for a system to achieve equilibrium when management changes and it

  18. Developing Land Use Land Cover Maps for the Lower Mekong Basin to Aid SWAT Hydrologic Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, J.; Bolten, J. D.; Srinivasan, R.

    2017-12-01

    This presentation discusses research to develop Land Use Land Cover (LULC) maps for the Lower Mekong Basin (LMB). Funded by a NASA ROSES Disasters grant, the main objective was to produce updated LULC maps to aid the Mekong River Commission's (MRC's) Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) hydrologic model. In producing needed LULC maps, temporally processed MODIS monthly NDVI data for 2010 were used as the primary data source for classifying regionally prominent forest and agricultural types. The MODIS NDVI data was derived from processing MOD09 and MYD09 8-day reflectance data with the Time Series Product Tool, a custom software package. Circa 2010 Landsat multispectral data from the dry season were processed into top of atmosphere reflectance mosaics and then classified to derive certain locally common LULC types, such as urban areas and industrial forest plantations. Unsupervised ISODATA clustering was used to derive most LULC classifications. GIS techniques were used to merge MODIS and Landsat classifications into final LULC maps for Sub-Basins (SBs) 1-8 of the LMB. The final LULC maps were produced at 250-meter resolution and delivered to the MRC for use in SWAT modeling for the LMB. A map accuracy assessment was performed for the SB 7 LULC map with 14 classes. This assessment was performed by comparing random locations for sampled LULC types to geospatial reference data such as Landsat RGBs, MODIS NDVI phenologic profiles, high resolution satellite data from Google Map/Earth, and other reference data from the MRC (e.g., crop calendars). LULC accuracy assessment results for SB 7 indicated an overall agreement to reference data of 81% at full scheme specificity. However, by grouping 3 deciduous forest classes into 1 class, the overall agreement improved to 87%. The project enabled updated LULC maps, plus more specific rice types were classified compared to the previous LULC maps. The LULC maps from this project should improve the use of SWAT for modeling

  19. ANALISIS CURAH HUJAN DAN DEBIT MODEL SWAT DENGAN METODE MOVING AVERAGE DI DAS CILIWUNG HULU

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Defri Satiya Zuma

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Watershed can be regarded as a hydrological system that has a function in transforming rainwater as an input into outputs such as flow and sediment. The transformation of inputs into outputs has specific forms and properties. The transformation involves many processes, including processes occurred on the surface of the land, river basins, in soil and aquifer. This study aimed to apply the SWAT model  in  Ciliwung Hulu Watershed, asses the effect of average rainfall  on 3 days, 5 days, 7 days and 10 days of the hydrological characteristics in Ciliwung Hulu Watershed. The correlation coefficient (r between rainfall and discharge was positive, it indicated that there was an unidirectional relationship between rainfall and discharge in the upstream, midstream and downstream of the watershed. The upper limit ratio of discharge had a downward trend from upstream to downstream, while the lower limit ratio of  discharge had an upward trend from upstream to downstream. It showed that the discharge peak in Ciliwung  Hulu Watershed from upstream to downstream had a downward trend while the baseflow from upstream to downstream had an upward trend. It showed that the upstream of Ciliwung Hulu Watershed had the highest ratio of discharge peak  and baseflow so it needs the soil and water conservations and technical civil measures. The discussion concluded that the SWAT model could be well applied in Ciliwung Hulu Watershed, the most affecting average rainfall on the hydrological characteristics was the average rainfall of 10 days. On average  rainfall of 10 days, all components had contributed maximally for river discharge.

  20. Calibration of a Distributed Hydrological Model using Remote Sensing Evapotranspiration data in the Semi-Arid Punjab Region of Pakista

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, R.; Usman, M.

    2017-12-01

    A SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model is applied in the semi-arid Punjab region in Pakistan. The physically based hydrological model is set up to simulate hydrological processes and water resources demands under future land use, climate change and irrigation management scenarios. In order to successfully run the model, detailed focus is laid on the calibration procedure of the model. The study deals with the following calibration issues:i. lack of reliable calibration/validation data, ii. difficulty to accurately model a highly managed system with a physically based hydrological model and iii. use of alternative and spatially distributed data sets for model calibration. In our study area field observations are rare and the entirely human controlled irrigation system renders central calibration parameters (e.g. runoff/curve number) unsuitable, as it can't be assumed that they represent the natural behavior of the hydrological system. From evapotranspiration (ET) however principal hydrological processes can still be inferred. Usman et al. (2015) derived satellite based monthly ET data for our study area based on SEBAL (Surface Energy Balance Algorithm) and created a reliable ET data set which we use in this study to calibrate our SWAT model. The initial SWAT model performance is evaluated with respect to the SEBAL results using correlation coefficients, RMSE, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies and mean differences. Particular focus is laid on the spatial patters, investigating the potential of a spatially differentiated parameterization instead of just using spatially uniform calibration data. A sensitivity analysis reveals the most sensitive parameters with respect to changes in ET, which are then selected for the calibration process.Using the SEBAL-ET product we calibrate the SWAT model for the time period 2005-2006 using a dynamically dimensioned global search algorithm to minimize RMSE. The model improvement after the calibration procedure is finally evaluated based

  1. A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain

    OpenAIRE

    Patricia Jimeno-Sáez; Javier Senent-Aparicio; Julio Pérez-Sánchez; David Pulido-Velazquez

    2018-01-01

    Streamflow data are of prime importance to water-resources planning and management, and the accuracy of their estimation is very important for decision making. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) models have been evaluated and compared to find a method to improve streamflow estimation. For a more complete evaluation, the accuracy and ability of these streamflow estimation models was also established separately based on their performance during differe...

  2. A Comparison of SWAT and ANN Models for Daily Runoff Simulation in Different Climatic Zones of Peninsular Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patricia Jimeno-Sáez

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Streamflow data are of prime importance to water-resources planning and management, and the accuracy of their estimation is very important for decision making. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and Artificial Neural Network (ANN models have been evaluated and compared to find a method to improve streamflow estimation. For a more complete evaluation, the accuracy and ability of these streamflow estimation models was also established separately based on their performance during different periods of flows using regional flow duration curves (FDCs. Specifically, the FDCs were divided into five sectors: very low, low, medium, high and very high flow. This segmentation of flow allows analysis of the model performance for every important discharge event precisely. In this study, the models were applied in two catchments in Peninsular Spain with contrasting climatic conditions: Atlantic and Mediterranean climates. The results indicate that SWAT and ANNs were generally good tools in daily streamflow modelling. However, SWAT was found to be more successful in relation to better simulation of lower flows, while ANNs were superior at estimating higher flows in all cases.

  3. Modeling Miscanthus in the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) to simulate its water quality effects as a bioenergy crop.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ng, Tze Ling; Eheart, J Wayland; Cai, Ximing; Miguez, Fernando

    2010-09-15

    There is increasing interest in perennial grasses as a renewable source of bioenergy and feedstock for second-generation cellulosic biofuels. The primary objective of this study is to estimate the potential effects on riverine nitrate load of cultivating Miscanthus x giganteus in place of conventional crops. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used to model miscanthus growth and streamwater quality in the Salt Creek watershed in Illinois. SWAT has a built-in crop growth component, but, as miscanthus is relatively new as a potentially commercial crop, data on the SWAT crop growth parameters for the crop are lacking. This leads to the second objective of this study, which is to estimate those parameters to facilitate the modeling of miscanthus in SWAT. Results show a decrease in nitrate load that depends on the percent land use change to miscanthus and the amount of nitrogen fertilizer applied to the miscanthus. Specifically, assuming a nitrogen fertilization rate for miscanthus of 90 kg-N/ha, a 10%, 25%, and 50% land use change to miscanthus will lead to decreases in nitrate load of about 6.4%, 16.5%, and 29.6% at the watershed outlet, respectively. Likewise, nitrate load may be reduced by lowering the fertilizer application rate, but not proportionately. When fertilization drops from 90 to 30 kg-N/ha the difference in nitrate load decrease is less than 1% when 10% of the watershed is miscanthus and less than 6% when 50% of the watershed is miscanthus. It is also found that the nitrate load decrease from converting less than half the watershed to miscanthus from corn and soybean in 1:1 rotation surpasses that from converting the whole watershed to just soybean.

  4. Pesticide transport simulation in a tropical catchment by SWAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bannwarth, M.A.; Sangchan, W.; Hugenschmidt, C.; Lamers, M.; Ingwersen, J.; Ziegler, A.D.; Streck, T.

    2014-01-01

    The application of agrochemicals in Southeast Asia is increasing in rate, variety and toxicity with alarming speed. Understanding the behavior of these different contaminants within the environment require comprehensive monitoring programs as well as accurate simulations with hydrological models. We used the SWAT hydrological model to simulate the fate of three different pesticides, one of each usage type (herbicide, fungicide and insecticide) in a mountainous catchment in Northern Thailand. Three key parameters were identified: the sorption coefficient, the decay coefficient and the coefficient controlling pesticide percolation. We yielded satisfactory results simulating pesticide load dynamics during the calibration period (NSE: 0.92–0.67); the results during the validation period were also acceptable (NSE: 0.61–0.28). The results of this study are an important step in understanding the modeling behavior of these pesticides in SWAT and will help to identify thresholds of worst-case scenarios in order to assess the risk for the environment. - Highlights: • We performed a global LH-sensitivity analysis of all pesticide related parameters. • Key physical parameters are associated to percolation, degradation and sorption. • We simulated the measured loads of three different pesticides. • We performed an uncertainty analysis of all pesticide simulations. • All Pesticides differed considerably in their sensitivity and simulation behavior. - Pesticide load simulations of three pesticides were modeled by SWAT, providing clues on how to handle pesticides in future SWAT studies

  5. Model Calibration in Option Pricing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andre Loerx

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available We consider calibration problems for models of pricing derivatives which occur in mathematical finance. We discuss various approaches such as using stochastic differential equations or partial differential equations for the modeling process. We discuss the development in the past literature and give an outlook into modern approaches of modelling. Furthermore, we address important numerical issues in the valuation of options and likewise the calibration of these models. This leads to interesting problems in optimization, where, e.g., the use of adjoint equations or the choice of the parametrization for the model parameters play an important role.

  6. Uncertainty of SWAT model at different DEM resolutions in a large mountainous watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Peipei; Liu, Ruimin; Bao, Yimeng; Wang, Jiawei; Yu, Wenwen; Shen, Zhenyao

    2014-04-15

    The objective of this study was to enhance understanding of the sensitivity of the SWAT model to the resolutions of Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) based on the analysis of multiple evaluation indicators. The Xiangxi River, a large tributary of Three Gorges Reservoir in China, was selected as the study area. A range of 17 DEM spatial resolutions, from 30 to 1000 m, was examined, and the annual and monthly model outputs based on each resolution were compared. The following results were obtained: (i) sediment yield was greatly affected by DEM resolution; (ii) the prediction of dissolved oxygen load was significantly affected by DEM resolutions coarser than 500 m; (iii) Total Nitrogen (TN) load was not greatly affected by the DEM resolution; (iv) Nitrate Nitrogen (NO₃-N) and Total Phosphorus (TP) loads were slightly affected by the DEM resolution; and (v) flow and Ammonia Nitrogen (NH₄-N) load were essentially unaffected by the DEM resolution. The flow and dissolved oxygen load decreased more significantly in the dry season than in the wet and normal seasons. Excluding flow and dissolved oxygen, the uncertainties of the other Hydrology/Non-point Source (H/NPS) pollution indicators were greater in the wet season than in the dry and normal seasons. Considering the temporal distribution uncertainties, the optimal DEM resolutions for flow was 30-200 m, for sediment and TP was 30-100 m, for dissolved oxygen and NO₃-N was 30-300 m, for NH₄-N was 30 to 70 m and for TN was 30-150 m. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Modelling land use change across elevation gradients in district Swat, Pakistan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qasim, M.; Termansen, M.; Hubacek, K.; Fleskens, L.

    2013-01-01

    District Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Documentation and analysis of land use change in this region is challenging due to very disparate accounts of the state of forest resources and limited accessible data. Such analysis is, however, important due to

  8. The modified SWAT model for predicting fecal coliform in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fecal contamination has been an issue for water quality because fecal coliform bacteria are used as an indicator organism to detect pathogens in water. In order to assess fecal contamination in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed in Massachusetts, USA, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a comm...

  9. Spatial multiobjective optimization of agricultural conservation practices using a SWAT model and an evolutionary algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabotyagov, Sergey; Campbell, Todd; Valcu, Adriana; Gassman, Philip; Jha, Manoj; Schilling, Keith; Wolter, Calvin; Kling, Catherine

    2012-12-09

    Finding the cost-efficient (i.e., lowest-cost) ways of targeting conservation practice investments for the achievement of specific water quality goals across the landscape is of primary importance in watershed management. Traditional economics methods of finding the lowest-cost solution in the watershed context (e.g.,(5,12,20)) assume that off-site impacts can be accurately described as a proportion of on-site pollution generated. Such approaches are unlikely to be representative of the actual pollution process in a watershed, where the impacts of polluting sources are often determined by complex biophysical processes. The use of modern physically-based, spatially distributed hydrologic simulation models allows for a greater degree of realism in terms of process representation but requires a development of a simulation-optimization framework where the model becomes an integral part of optimization. Evolutionary algorithms appear to be a particularly useful optimization tool, able to deal with the combinatorial nature of a watershed simulation-optimization problem and allowing the use of the full water quality model. Evolutionary algorithms treat a particular spatial allocation of conservation practices in a watershed as a candidate solution and utilize sets (populations) of candidate solutions iteratively applying stochastic operators of selection, recombination, and mutation to find improvements with respect to the optimization objectives. The optimization objectives in this case are to minimize nonpoint-source pollution in the watershed, simultaneously minimizing the cost of conservation practices. A recent and expanding set of research is attempting to use similar methods and integrates water quality models with broadly defined evolutionary optimization methods(3,4,9,10,13-15,17-19,22,23,25). In this application, we demonstrate a program which follows Rabotyagov et al.'s approach and integrates a modern and commonly used SWAT water quality model(7) with a

  10. A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. M. Easton

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available A multi basin analysis of runoff and erosion in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia was conducted to elucidate sources of runoff and sediment. Erosion is arguably the most critical problem in the Blue Nile Basin, as it limits agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, degrades benthos in the Nile, and results in sedimentation of dams in downstream countries. A modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was developed to predict runoff and sediment losses from the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. The model simulates saturation excess runoff from the landscape using a simple daily water balance coupled to a topographic wetness index in ways that are consistent with observed runoff processes in the basin. The spatial distribution of landscape erosion is thus simulated more correctly. The model was parameterized in a nested design for flow at eight and sediment at three locations in the basin. Subbasins ranged in size from 1.3 to 174 000 km2, and interestingly, the partitioning of runoff and infiltrating flow could be predicted by topographic information. Model predictions showed reasonable accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranged from 0.53–0.92 with measured data across all sites except Kessie, where the water budget could not be closed; however, the timing of flow was well captured. Runoff losses increased with rainfall during the monsoonal season and were greatest from areas with shallow soils and large contributing areas. Analysis of model results indicate that upland landscape erosion dominated sediment delivery to the main stem of the Blue Nile in the early part of the growing season when tillage occurs and before the soil was wetted up and plant cover was established. Once plant cover was established in mid August landscape erosion was negligible and sediment export was dominated by channel processes and re-suspension of landscape sediment deposited early in the growing season. These results imply that targeting small

  11. Comment on “Modeling Miscanthus in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to Simulate Its Water Quality Effects As a Bioenergy Crop”

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang, Xuesong; Izaurralde, Roberto C.; Arnold, J. G.; Sammons, N. B.; Manowitz, David H.; Thomson, Allison M.; Williams, J.R.

    2011-07-01

    In this paper, the authors comment on several mistakes made in a journal paper "Modeling Miscanthus in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to Simulate Its Water Quality Effects As a Bioenergy Crop" published on Environmental Scienece & Technology, based on field measurements from Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Carbon Sequestration in Terrestrial Ecosystems, and published literature. Our comment has led to the development of another version of SWAT to include better process based description of radiation use efficiency and root-shoot growth.

  12. Model Calibration in Watershed Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yilmaz, Koray K.; Vrugt, Jasper A.; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Sorooshian, Soroosh

    2009-01-01

    Hydrologic models use relatively simple mathematical equations to conceptualize and aggregate the complex, spatially distributed, and highly interrelated water, energy, and vegetation processes in a watershed. A consequence of process aggregation is that the model parameters often do not represent directly measurable entities and must, therefore, be estimated using measurements of the system inputs and outputs. During this process, known as model calibration, the parameters are adjusted so that the behavior of the model approximates, as closely and consistently as possible, the observed response of the hydrologic system over some historical period of time. This Chapter reviews the current state-of-the-art of model calibration in watershed hydrology with special emphasis on our own contributions in the last few decades. We discuss the historical background that has led to current perspectives, and review different approaches for manual and automatic single- and multi-objective parameter estimation. In particular, we highlight the recent developments in the calibration of distributed hydrologic models using parameter dimensionality reduction sampling, parameter regularization and parallel computing.

  13. A SWAT model validation of nested-scale contemporaneous stream flow, suspended sediment and nutrients from a multiple-land-use watershed of the central USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeiger, Sean J; Hubbart, Jason A

    2016-12-01

    There is an ongoing need to validate the accuracy of predictive model simulated pollutant yields, particularly from multiple-land-use (i.e. forested, agricultural, and urban) watersheds. However, there are seldom sufficient observed data sets available that supply requisite spatial and temporal resolution and coupled multi-parameter constituents for rigorous model performance assessment. Four years of hydroclimate and water quality data were used to validate SWAT model estimates of monthly stream flow, suspended sediment, total phosphorus, nitrate, nitrite, ammonium, and total inorganic nitrogen from 5 nested-scale gauging sites located in a multiple-land-use watershed of the central USA. The uncalibrated SWAT model satisfactorily simulated monthly stream flow with Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) values ranging from 0.50 near the headwaters, to 0.75 near the watershed outlet. However, the uncalibrated model did not accurately simulate monthly sediment, total phosphorus, nitrate, nitrite, ammonium, and total inorganic nitrogen with NSE valuesSWAT model to multiple gauging sites within the watershed improved estimates of monthly stream flow (NSE=0.83), sediment (NSE=0.78), total phosphorus (NSE=0.81), nitrate (NSE=0.90), and total inorganic nitrogen (NSE=0.86). However, NSE values were model performance decreased for sediment, nitrate, and total inorganic nitrogen during the validation period with NSE valuesSWAT model to multiple gauging sites and provide guidance to SWAT model (or similar models) users wishing to improve model performance at multiple scales. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

    2010-06-15

    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  15. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  16. Modeling the Impacts of Spatial Heterogeneity in the Castor Watershed on Runoff, Sediment, and Phosphorus Loss Using SWAT: I. Impacts of Spatial Variability of Soil Properties.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boluwade, Alaba; Madramootoo, Chandra

    2013-01-01

    Spatial accuracy of hydrologic modeling inputs influences the output from hydrologic models. A pertinent question is to know the optimal level of soil sampling or how many soil samples are needed for model input, in order to improve model predictions. In this study, measured soil properties were clustered into five different configurations as inputs to the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) simulation of the Castor River watershed (11-km 2 area) in southern Quebec, Canada. SWAT is a process-based model that predicts the impacts of climate and land use management on water yield, sediment, and nutrient fluxes. SWAT requires geographical information system inputs such as the digital elevation model as well as soil and land use maps. Mean values of soil properties are used in soil polygons (soil series); thus, the spatial variability of these properties is neglected. The primary objective of this study was to quantify the impacts of spatial variability of soil properties on the prediction of runoff, sediment, and total phosphorus using SWAT. The spatial clustering of the measured soil properties was undertaken using the regionalized with dynamically constrained agglomerative clustering and partitioning method. Measured soil data were clustered into 5, 10, 15, 20, and 24 heterogeneous regions. Soil data from the Castor watershed which have been used in previous studies was also set up and termed "Reference". Overall, there was no significant difference in runoff simulation across the five configurations including the reference. This may be attributable to SWAT's use of the soil conservation service curve number method in flow simulation. Therefore having high spatial resolution inputs for soil data may not necessarily improve predictions when they are used in hydrologic modeling.

  17. SWAT (Student Weekend Arborist Team): A Model for Land Grant Institutions and Cooperative Extension Systems to Conduct Street Tree Inventories

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cowett, F.D.; Bassuk, N.L.

    2012-01-01

    SWAT (Student Weekend Arborist Team) is a program affiliated with Cornell University and Extension founded to conduct street tree inventories in New York State communities with 10,000 residents or fewer, a group of communities underserved in community forestry planning. Between 2002 and 2010, SWAT conducted 40 inventories, and data from these…

  18. Runoff Simulation in the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin Based on the RIEMS–SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songbing Zou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In the distributed hydrological simulations for complex mountain areas, large amounts of meteorological input parameters with high spatial and temporal resolutions are necessary. However, the extreme scarcity and uneven distribution of the traditional meteorological observation stations in cold and arid regions of Northwest China makes it very difficult in meeting the requirements of hydrological simulations. Alternatively, regional climate models (RCMs, which can provide a variety of distributed meteorological data with high temporal and spatial resolution, have become an effective solution to improve hydrological simulation accuracy and to further study water resource responses to human activities and global climate change. In this study, abundant and evenly distributed virtual weather stations in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB of Northwest China were built for the optimization of the input data, and thus a regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS based on RCM and a distributed hydrological model of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT were integrated as a coupled climate–hydrological RIEMS-SWAT model, which was applied to simulate monthly runoff from 1995 to 2010 in the region. Results show that the simulated and observed values are close; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency is higher than 0.65; determination coefficient (R2 values are higher than 0.70; percent bias is controlled within ±20%; and root-mean-square-error-observation standard deviation ratio is less than 0.65. These results indicate that the coupled model can present basin hydrological processes properly, and provide scientific support for prediction and management of basin water resources.

  19. Developing a Resource for Implementing ArcSWAT Using Global Datasets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taggart, M.; Caraballo Álvarez, I. O.; Mueller, C.; Palacios, S. L.; Schmidt, C.; Milesi, C.; Palmer-Moloney, L. J.

    2015-12-01

    This project developed a comprehensive user manual outlining methods for adapting and implementing global datasets for use within ArcSWAT for international and worldwide applications. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrologic model that looks at a number of hydrologic variables including runoff and the chemical makeup of water at a given location on the Earth's surface using Digital Elevation Models (DEM), land cover, soil, and weather data. However, the application of ArcSWAT for projects outside of the United States is challenging as there is no standard framework for inputting global datasets into ArcSWAT. This project aims to remove this obstacle by outlining methods for adapting and implementing these global datasets via the user manual. The manual takes the user through the processes of data conditioning while providing solutions and suggestions for common errors. The efficacy of the manual was explored using examples from watersheds located in Puerto Rico, Mexico and Western Africa. Each run explored the various options for setting up a ArcSWAT project as well as a range of satellite data products and soil databases. Future work will incorporate in-situ data for validation and calibration of the model and outline additional resources to assist future users in efficiently implementing the model for worldwide applications. The capacity to manage and monitor freshwater availability is of critical importance in both developed and developing countries. As populations grow and climate changes, both the quality and quantity of freshwater are affected resulting in negative impacts on the health of the surrounding population. The use of hydrologic models such as ArcSWAT can help stakeholders and decision makers understand the future impacts of these changes enabling informed and substantiated decisions.

  20. Comparison of MODIS and SWAT evapotranspiration over a complex terrain at different spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abiodun, Olanrewaju O.; Guan, Huade; Post, Vincent E. A.; Batelaan, Okke

    2018-05-01

    In most hydrological systems, evapotranspiration (ET) and precipitation are the largest components of the water balance, which are difficult to estimate, particularly over complex terrain. In recent decades, the advent of remotely sensed data based ET algorithms and distributed hydrological models has provided improved spatially upscaled ET estimates. However, information on the performance of these methods at various spatial scales is limited. This study compares the ET from the MODIS remotely sensed ET dataset (MOD16) with the ET estimates from a SWAT hydrological model on graduated spatial scales for the complex terrain of the Sixth Creek Catchment of the Western Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia. ET from both models was further compared with the coarser-resolution AWRA-L model at catchment scale. The SWAT model analyses are performed on daily timescales with a 6-year calibration period (2000-2005) and 7-year validation period (2007-2013). Differences in ET estimation between the SWAT and MOD16 methods of up to 31, 19, 15, 11 and 9 % were observed at respectively 1, 4, 9, 16 and 25 km2 spatial resolutions. Based on the results of the study, a spatial scale of confidence of 4 km2 for catchment-scale evapotranspiration is suggested in complex terrain. Land cover differences, HRU parameterisation in AWRA-L and catchment-scale averaging of input climate data in the SWAT semi-distributed model were identified as the principal sources of weaker correlations at higher spatial resolution.

  1. PATHOGEN TRANSPORT AND FATE MODELING IN THE UPPER SALEM RIVER WATERSHED USING SWAT MODEL - PEER-REVIEWED JOURNAL ARTICLE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simulation of the fate and transport of pathogen contamination was conducted with SWAT for the Upper Salem River Watershed, located in Salem County, New Jersey. This watershed is 37 km2 and land uses are predominantly agricultural. The watershed drains to a 32 km str...

  2. SWAT2: The improved SWAT code system by incorporating the continuous energy Monte Carlo code MVP

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mochizuki, Hiroki; Suyama, Kenya; Okuno, Hiroshi

    2003-01-01

    SWAT is a code system, which performs the burnup calculation by the combination of the neutronics calculation code, SRAC95 and the one group burnup calculation code, ORIGEN2.1. The SWAT code system can deal with the cell geometry in SRAC95. However, a precise treatment of resonance absorptions by the SRAC95 code using the ultra-fine group cross section library is not directly applicable to two- or three-dimensional geometry models, because of restrictions in SRAC95. To overcome this problem, SWAT2 which newly introduced the continuous energy Monte Carlo code, MVP into SWAT was developed. Thereby, the burnup calculation by the continuous energy in any geometry became possible. Moreover, using the 147 group cross section library called SWAT library, the reactions which are not dealt with by SRAC95 and MVP can be treated. OECD/NEA burnup credit criticality safety benchmark problems Phase-IB (PWR, a single pin cell model) and Phase-IIIB (BWR, fuel assembly model) were calculated as a verification of SWAT2, and the results were compared with the average values of calculation results of burnup calculation code of each organization. Through two benchmark problems, it was confirmed that SWAT2 was applicable to the burnup calculation of the complicated geometry. (author)

  3. Calibration and simulation of Heston model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mrázek Milan

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available We calibrate Heston stochastic volatility model to real market data using several optimization techniques. We compare both global and local optimizers for different weights showing remarkable differences even for data (DAX options from two consecutive days. We provide a novel calibration procedure that incorporates the usage of approximation formula and outperforms significantly other existing calibration methods.

  4. Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Hanh Nguyen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To assist water resource managers with future land use planning efforts, the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was applied to three catchments in South Australia that experience extreme low flow conditions. Particular land uses and management issues of interest included forest covers, known to affect water yields, and farm dams, known to intercept and change the hydrological dynamics in a catchment. The study achieved a satisfactory daily calibration when irrigation farm dams were incorporated in the model. For the catchment dominated by extreme low flows, a better daily simulation across a range of qualitative and quantitative metrics was gained using the base-flow static threshold optimization technique. Scenario analysis on effects of forest cover indicated an increase of surface flow and a reduction of base-flow when native eucalyptus lands were replaced by pastures and vice versa. A decreasing trend was observed for the overall water yield of catchments with more forest plantation due to the higher evapotranspiration (ET rate and the decline in surface flow. With regards to effects of irrigation farm dams, assessment on a daily time step suggested that a significant volume of water is stored in these systems with the water loss rate highest in June and July. On an annual basis, the model indicated that approximately 13.1% to 22.0% of water has been captured by farm dams for irrigation. However, the scenario analysis revealed that the purposes of use of farm dams rather than their volumetric capacities in the catchment determined the magnitude of effects on streamflows. Water extracted from farm dams for irrigation of orchards and vineyards are more likely to diminish streamflows than other land uses. Outputs from this study suggest that the water use restrictions from farm dams during recent drought periods were an effective tool to minimize impacts on streamflows.

  5. Application of the SWAT model to an endorheic watershed in the Central Spanish Pre-Pyrenees: Methodological approach and preliminary results

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaspar, Leticia; White, Sue; Navas, Ana; López-Vicente, Manuel; Palazón, Leticia

    2013-04-01

    Modelling runoff and sediment transport at watershed scale are key tools to predict hydrological and sediment processes, identify soil sediment sources and estimate sediment yield, with the purpose of better managing soil and water resources. This study aims to apply the SWAT model in an endorheic watershed in the Central Spanish Pre-Pyrenees, where there have been a number of previous field-based studies on sediment sources and transfers. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a process based semi-distributed watershed scale hydrologic model, which can provide a high level of spatial detail by allowing the watershed to be divided into sub-basins. This study addresses the challenge of applying the SWAT model to an endorheic watershed that drains to a central lake, without external output, and without a network of permanent rivers. In this case it has been shown that the SWAT model does not correctly reproduce the stream network when using automatic watershed delineation, even with a high resolution Digital Elevation Model (5 x 5 metres). For this purpose, different approaches needed to be considered, such as i) user-defined watersheds and streams, ii) burning in a stream network or iii) modelling each sub-watershed separately. The objective of this study was to develop a new methodological approach for correctly simulating the main hydrological processes in an endorheic and complex karst watershed of the Spanish Pre-Pyrenees. The Estanque de Arriba Lake watershed (74 ha) is an endorheic system located in the Spanish Central Pre-Pyrenees. This watershed holds a small and permanent lake of fresh water (1.7 ha) and is a Site of Community Importance (European NATURA 2000 network). The study area is characterized by an abrupt topography with altitude range between 679 and 862 m and an average slope gradient of 24 %. Steep slopes (> 24 %) occupy the northern part of the watershed, whereas gentle slopes (

  6. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

  7. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

  8. A new R-SWAT Decision Making Framework for the Efficient Allocation of Best Management Practices

    OpenAIRE

    UDIAS MOINELO ANGEL; MALAGO ANNA; REYNAUD ARNAUD; PASTORI MARCO; VIGIAK OLGA; BOURAOUI Faycal

    2015-01-01

    The work presents and illustrates the application of R-SWAT-DM, a new R framework designed for Decision Making (DM), related to the implementation of Best Management Practices (BMPs), for restoring and protecting the good ecological status of freshwater bodies. R-SWAT-DM combines the use of the SWAT watershed model, the spatial representation of BMPs and an economic component. The SWAT model served as the nonpoint source pollution estimator for current conditions (base line) as well as for sc...

  9. Evaluation of drought impact on groundwater recharge rate using SWAT and Hydrus models on an agricultural island in western Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Clarifying the variations of groundwater recharge response to a changing non-stationary hydrological process is important for efficiently managing groundwater resources, particularly in regions with limited precipitation that face the risk of water shortage. However, the rate of aquifer recharge is difficult to evaluate in terms of large annual-variations and frequency of flood events. In our research, we attempt to simulate related groundwater recharge processes under variable climate conditions using the SWAT Model, and validate the groundwater recharge using the Hydrus Model. The results show that annual average groundwater recharge comprised approximately 33% of total precipitation, however, larger variation was found for groundwater recharge and surface runoff compared to evapotranspiration, which fluctuated with annual precipitation variations. The annual variation of groundwater resources is shown to be related to precipitation. In spatial variations, the upstream is the main surface water discharge area; the middle and downstream areas are the main groundwater recharge areas. Validation by the Hydrus Model shows that the estimated and simulated groundwater levels are consistent in our research area. The groundwater level shows a quick response to the groundwater recharge rate. The rainfall intensity had a great impact on the changes of the groundwater level. Consequently, it was estimated that large spatial and temporal variation of the groundwater recharge rate would be affected by precipitation uncertainty in future.

  10. Improvement and comparison of likelihood functions for model calibration and parameter uncertainty analysis within a Markov chain Monte Carlo scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Qin-Bo; Chen, Xi; Xu, Chong-Yu; Reinhardt-Imjela, Christian; Schulte, Achim

    2014-11-01

    In this study, the likelihood functions for uncertainty analysis of hydrological models are compared and improved through the following steps: (1) the equivalent relationship between the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency coefficient (NSE) and the likelihood function with Gaussian independent and identically distributed residuals is proved; (2) a new estimation method of the Box-Cox transformation (BC) parameter is developed to improve the effective elimination of the heteroscedasticity of model residuals; and (3) three likelihood functions-NSE, Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-GED) and Skew Generalized Error Distribution with BC (BC-SGED)-are applied for SWAT-WB-VSA (Soil and Water Assessment Tool - Water Balance - Variable Source Area) model calibration in the Baocun watershed, Eastern China. Performances of calibrated models are compared using the observed river discharges and groundwater levels. The result shows that the minimum variance constraint can effectively estimate the BC parameter. The form of the likelihood function significantly impacts on the calibrated parameters and the simulated results of high and low flow components. SWAT-WB-VSA with the NSE approach simulates flood well, but baseflow badly owing to the assumption of Gaussian error distribution, where the probability of the large error is low, but the small error around zero approximates equiprobability. By contrast, SWAT-WB-VSA with the BC-GED or BC-SGED approach mimics baseflow well, which is proved in the groundwater level simulation. The assumption of skewness of the error distribution may be unnecessary, because all the results of the BC-SGED approach are nearly the same as those of the BC-GED approach.

  11. The Assessment of Green Water Based on the SWAT Model: A Case Study in the Hai River Basin, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kui Zhu

    2018-06-01

    Full Text Available Green water accounts for two-thirds of precipitation, and the proportion could be even higher in dry years. Conflicts between water supply and demand have gradually become severe in the Hai River Basin (HRB due to the socio-economic development. Thus, the exploitation and the utilization of green water have attracted increasing attention. By gathering the related hydrological, meteorological, and geographic data, the spatiotemporal distribution of green water in HRB and the impacts of land use types on green water are analyzed based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool model in this study. Furthermore, three new indices are proposed for evaluation, including the maximum possible storage of green water (MSGW, the consumed green water (CGW, and the utilizable green water (UGW. The results show that (1 the MSGW is relatively low in plain areas and its spatial distribution is significantly associated with the soil type; (2 according to the evaluation results of CGW and UGW in HRB, a further improvement of utilization efficiency of green water could be achieved; (3 in general, the utilization efficiency of precipitation in farmlands is higher than other land use types, which means that the planting of appropriate plants could be helpful to enhance the utilization efficiency of green water. Our results summarize the spatiotemporal distribution of green water resource and provide a reference for water resources management in other water-short agricultural areas.

  12. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas

    2015-12-01

    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Model on a small tropical island (Great River Watershed, Jamaica as a tool in Integrated Watershed and Coastal Zone Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orville P. Grey

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The Great River Watershed, located in north-west Jamaica, is critical for development, particularly for housing, tourism, agriculture, and mining. It is a source of sediment and nutrient loading to the coastal environment including the Montego Bay Marine Park. We produced a modeling framework using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and GIS. The calculated model performance statistics for high flow discharge yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE value of 0.68 and a R² value of 0.70 suggesting good measured and simulated (calibrated discharge correlation. Calibration and validation results for streamflow were similar to the observed streamflows. For the dry season the simulated urban landuse scenario predicted an increase in surface runoff in excess of 150%. During the wet season it is predicted to range from 98 to 234% presenting a significant risk of flooding, erosion and other environmental issues. The model should be used for the remaining 25 watersheds in Jamaica and elsewhere in the Caribbean. The models suggests that projected landuse changes will have serious impacts on available water (streamflow, stream health, potable water treatment, flooding and sensitive coastal ecosystems.

  14. Calibration of PMIS pavement performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-02-01

    Improve the accuracy of TxDOTs existing pavement performance prediction models through calibrating these models using actual field data obtained from the Pavement Management Information System (PMIS). : Ensure logical performance superiority patte...

  15. Error-in-variables models in calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lira, I.; Grientschnig, D.

    2017-12-01

    In many calibration operations, the stimuli applied to the measuring system or instrument under test are derived from measurement standards whose values may be considered to be perfectly known. In that case, it is assumed that calibration uncertainty arises solely from inexact measurement of the responses, from imperfect control of the calibration process and from the possible inaccuracy of the calibration model. However, the premise that the stimuli are completely known is never strictly fulfilled and in some instances it may be grossly inadequate. Then, error-in-variables (EIV) regression models have to be employed. In metrology, these models have been approached mostly from the frequentist perspective. In contrast, not much guidance is available on their Bayesian analysis. In this paper, we first present a brief summary of the conventional statistical techniques that have been developed to deal with EIV models in calibration. We then proceed to discuss the alternative Bayesian framework under some simplifying assumptions. Through a detailed example about the calibration of an instrument for measuring flow rates, we provide advice on how the user of the calibration function should employ the latter framework for inferring the stimulus acting on the calibrated device when, in use, a certain response is measured.

  16. Water quantity and quality optimization modeling of dams operation based on SWAT in Wenyu River Catchment, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongyong; Xia, Jun; Chen, Junfeng; Zhang, Minghua

    2011-02-01

    Water quantity and quality joint operation is a new mode in the present dams' operation research. It has become a hot topic in governmental efforts toward integrated basin improvement. This paper coupled a water quantity and quality joint operation model (QCmode) and genetic algorithm with Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Together, these tools were used to explore a reasonable operation of dams and floodgates at the basin scale. Wenyu River Catchment, a key area in Beijing, was selected as the case study. Results showed that the coupled water quantity and quality model of Wenyu River Catchment more realistically simulates the process of water quantity and quality control by dams and floodgates. This integrated model provides the foundation for research of water quantity and quality optimization on dam operation in Wenyu River Catchment. The results of this modeling also suggest that current water quality of Wenyu River will improve following the implementation of the optimized operation of the main dams and floodgates. By pollution control and water quantity and quality joint operation of dams and floodgates, water quality of Wenyu river will change significantly, and the available water resources will increase by 134%, 32%, 17%, and 82% at the downstream sites of Sha River Reservoir, Lutong Floodgate, Xinpu Floodgate, and Weigou Floodgate, respectively. The water quantity and quality joint operation of dams will play an active role in improving water quality and water use efficiency in Wenyu River Basin. The research will provide the technical support for water pollution control and ecological restoration in Wenyu River Catchment and could be applied to other basins with large number of dams. Its application to the Wenyu River Catchment has a great significance for the sustainable economic development of Beijing City.

  17. Evaluating Impacts of climate and land use changes on streamflow using SWAT and land use models based CESM1-CAM5 Climate scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Tzu Ping; Lin, Yu Pin; Lien, Wan Yu

    2015-04-01

    Climate change projects have various levels of impacts on hydrological cycles around the world. The impact of climate change and uncertainty of climate projections from general circulation models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) which has been just be released in Taiwan, 2014. Since the streamflow run into ocean directly due to the steep terrain and the rainfall difference between wet and dry seasons is apparent; as a result, the allocation water resource reasonable is very challenge in Taiwan, particularly under climate change. The purpose of this study was to evaluate the impacts of climate and land use changes on a small watershed in Taiwan. The AR5 General Circulation Models(GCM) output data was adopted in this study and was downscaled from the monthly to the daily weather data as the input data of hydrological model such as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model in this study. The spatially explicit land uses change model, the Conservation of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent (CLUE-s), was applied to simulate land use scenarios in 2020-2039. Combined climate and land use change scenarios were adopted as input data of the hydrological model, the SWAT model, to estimate the future streamflows. With the increasing precipitation, increasing urban area and decreasing agricultural and grass land, the annual streamflow in the most of twenty-three subbasins were also increased. Besides, due to the increasing rainfall in wet season and decreasing rainfall in dry season, the difference of streamflow between wet season and dry season are also increased. This result indicates a more stringent challenge on the water resource management in future. Therefore, impacts on water resource caused by climate change and land use change should be considered in water resource planning for the Datuan river watershed. Keywords: SWAT, GCM, CLUE-s, streamflow, climate change, land use change

  18. Macrophyte growth module for the SWAT model – impact of climate change and management on stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Erfurt, Jytte

    To access how multiple stressors affect the water quantity and quality and stream ecology at catchment scale under various management and climate change scenarios, we implemented macrophyte growth modules for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2012 (SWAT). The macrophyte growth module...

  19. Integrated Approach to Inform the New York City Water Supply System Coupling SAR Remote Sensing Observations and the SWAT Watershed Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tesser, D.; Hoang, L.; McDonald, K. C.

    2017-12-01

    Efforts to improve municipal water supply systems increasingly rely on an ability to elucidate variables that drive hydrologic dynamics within large watersheds. However, fundamental model variables such as precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration, and soil freeze/thaw state remain difficult to measure empirically across large, heterogeneous watersheds. Satellite remote sensing presents a method to validate these spatially and temporally dynamic variables as well as better inform the watershed models that monitor the water supply for many of the planet's most populous urban centers. PALSAR 2 L-band, Sentinel 1 C-band, and SMAP L-band scenes covering the Cannonsville branch of the New York City (NYC) water supply watershed were obtained for the period of March 2015 - October 2017. The SAR data provides information on soil moisture, free/thaw state, seasonal surface inundation, and variable source areas within the study site. Integrating the remote sensing products with watershed model outputs and ground survey data improves the representation of related processes in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) utilized to monitor the NYC water supply. PALSAR 2 supports accurate mapping of the extent of variable source areas while Sentinel 1 presents a method to model the timing and magnitude of snowmelt runoff events. SMAP Active Radar soil moisture product directly validates SWAT outputs at the subbasin level. This blended approach verifies the distribution of soil wetness classes within the watershed that delineate Hydrologic Response Units (HRUs) in the modified SWAT-Hillslope. The research expands the ability to model the NYC water supply source beyond a subset of the watershed while also providing high resolution information across a larger spatial scale. The global availability of these remote sensing products provides a method to capture fundamental hydrology variables in regions where current modeling efforts and in situ data remain limited.

  20. Financial model calibration using consistency hints.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu-Mostafa, Y S

    2001-01-01

    We introduce a technique for forcing the calibration of a financial model to produce valid parameters. The technique is based on learning from hints. It converts simple curve fitting into genuine calibration, where broad conclusions can be inferred from parameter values. The technique augments the error function of curve fitting with consistency hint error functions based on the Kullback-Leibler distance. We introduce an efficient EM-type optimization algorithm tailored to this technique. We also introduce other consistency hints, and balance their weights using canonical errors. We calibrate the correlated multifactor Vasicek model of interest rates, and apply it successfully to Japanese Yen swaps market and US dollar yield market.

  1. Iowa calibration of MEPDG performance prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    This study aims to improve the accuracy of AASHTO Mechanistic-Empirical Pavement Design Guide (MEPDG) pavement : performance predictions for Iowa pavement systems through local calibration of MEPDG prediction models. A total of 130 : representative p...

  2. Algorithm Theory - SWAT 2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th Scandinavian Workshop on Algorithm Theory, SWAT 2006, held in Riga, Latvia, in July 2006. The 36 revised full papers presented together with 3 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 154 submissions. The papers address all...

  3. Critical review of SWAT applications in the upper Nile basin countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. van Griensven

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is an integrated river basin model that is widely applied within the Nile basin. Up to date, more than 20 peer-reviewed papers describe the use of SWAT for a variety of problems in the upper Nile basin countries, such as erosion modelling, land use and climate change impact modelling and water resources management. The majority of the studies are focused on locations in the tropical highlands in Ethiopia and around Lake Victoria. The popularity of SWAT is attributed to the fact that the tool is freely available and that it is readily applicable through the development of geographic information system (GIS based interfaces and its easy linkage to sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty analysis tools. The online and free availability of basic GIS data that are required for SWAT made its applicability more straightforward even in data-scarce areas. However, the easy use of SWAT may not always lead to appropriate models which is also a consequence of the quality of the available free databases in these regions. In this paper, we aim at critically reviewing the use of SWAT in the context of the modelling purpose and problem descriptions in the tropical highlands of the Nile basin countries. To evaluate the models that are described in journal papers, a number of criteria are used to evaluate the model set-up, model performances, physical representation of the model parameters, and the correctness of the hydrological model balance. On the basis of performance indicators, the majority of the SWAT models were classified as giving satisfactory to very good results. Nevertheless, the hydrological mass balances as reported in several papers contained losses that might not be justified. Several papers also reported the use of unrealistic parameter values. More worrying is that many papers lack this information. For this reason, most of the reported SWAT models have to be evaluated critically. An important gap is

  4. Logarithmic transformed statistical models in calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zeis, C.D.

    1975-01-01

    A general type of statistical model used for calibration of instruments having the property that the standard deviations of the observed values increase as a function of the mean value is described. The application to the Helix Counter at the Rocky Flats Plant is primarily from a theoretical point of view. The Helix Counter measures the amount of plutonium in certain types of chemicals. The method described can be used also for other calibrations. (U.S.)

  5. ROLE OF WATERSHED SUBDIVISION ON MODELING THE EFFECTIVENESS OF BEST MANAGEMENT PRACTICES WITH SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Distributed parameter watershed models are often used for evaluating the effectiveness of various best management practices (BMPs). Streamflow, sediment, and nutrient yield predictions of a watershed model can be affected by spatial resolution as dictated by watershed subdivisio...

  6. Consideration of drainage ditches and sediment rating cure on SWAT model performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Water quality models most often require a considerable amount of data to be properly configured and in some cases this requires additional procedural steps prior to model applications. We examined two different scenarios of such input issues in a small watershed using the Soil and Water Assessment ...

  7. U.S. and Australian Mine Warfare Sonar Performance Assessment Using SWAT and Hodgson Models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Dubsky, Barbra

    2000-01-01

    The purpose of this thesis was to investigate a shallow coastal region to compile a detailed environmental picture of its sediment composition and water characteristics and from this model MCM sonar...

  8. Improved simulation of river water and groundwater exchange in an alluvial plain using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrological interaction between surface and subsurface water systems has a significant impact on water quality, ecosystems and biogeochemistry cycling of both systems. Distributed models have been developed to simulate this function, but they require detailed spatial inputs and extensive computati...

  9. Impacts of Spatial Climatic Representation on Hydrological Model Calibration and Prediction Uncertainty: A Mountainous Catchment of Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Li

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Sparse climatic observations represent a major challenge for hydrological modeling of mountain catchments with implications for decision-making in water resources management. Employing elevation bands in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool-Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SWAT2012-SUFI2 model enabled representation of precipitation and temperature variation with altitude in the Daning river catchment (Three Gorges Reservoir Region, China where meteorological inputs are limited in spatial extent and are derived from observations from relatively low lying locations. Inclusion of elevation bands produced better model performance for 1987–1993 with the Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE increasing by at least 0.11 prior to calibration. During calibration prediction uncertainty was greatly reduced. With similar R-factors from the earlier calibration iterations, a further 11% of observations were included within the 95% prediction uncertainty (95PPU compared to the model without elevation bands. For behavioral simulations defined in SWAT calibration using a NSE threshold of 0.3, an additional 3.9% of observations were within the 95PPU while the uncertainty reduced by 7.6% in the model with elevation bands. The calibrated model with elevation bands reproduced observed river discharges with the performance in the calibration period changing to “very good” from “poor” without elevation bands. The output uncertainty of calibrated model with elevation bands was satisfactory, having 85% of flow observations included within the 95PPU. These results clearly demonstrate the requirement to account for orographic effects on precipitation and temperature in hydrological models of mountainous catchments.

  10. Comparison of MODIS and SWAT evapotranspiration over a complex terrain at different spatial scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    O. O. Abiodun

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available In most hydrological systems, evapotranspiration (ET and precipitation are the largest components of the water balance, which are difficult to estimate, particularly over complex terrain. In recent decades, the advent of remotely sensed data based ET algorithms and distributed hydrological models has provided improved spatially upscaled ET estimates. However, information on the performance of these methods at various spatial scales is limited. This study compares the ET from the MODIS remotely sensed ET dataset (MOD16 with the ET estimates from a SWAT hydrological model on graduated spatial scales for the complex terrain of the Sixth Creek Catchment of the Western Mount Lofty Ranges, South Australia. ET from both models was further compared with the coarser-resolution AWRA-L model at catchment scale. The SWAT model analyses are performed on daily timescales with a 6-year calibration period (2000–2005 and 7-year validation period (2007–2013. Differences in ET estimation between the SWAT and MOD16 methods of up to 31, 19, 15, 11 and 9 % were observed at respectively 1, 4, 9, 16 and 25 km2 spatial resolutions. Based on the results of the study, a spatial scale of confidence of 4 km2 for catchment-scale evapotranspiration is suggested in complex terrain. Land cover differences, HRU parameterisation in AWRA-L and catchment-scale averaging of input climate data in the SWAT semi-distributed model were identified as the principal sources of weaker correlations at higher spatial resolution.

  11. Evaluating the SWAT model for a low-gradient forested watershed in coastal South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.M. Amatya; M.K. Jha.

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the hydrology of low�]gradient forested watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils of the coastal plain is a challenging task due to complexities in watershed delineation, microtopography, evapotranspiration, runoff generation processes and pathways including flooding and submergence caused by tropical storms, and complexity of vegetation species....

  12. Problems and Prospects of SWAT Model Application on an Arid/Semi-arid Watershed in Arizona

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hydrological characteristics in the semi-arid southwest create unique challenges to watershed modelers. Streamflow in these regions is largely dependent on seasonal, short term, and high intensity rainfall events. The objectives of this study are: 1) to analyze the unique hydrolo...

  13. OpenMP-accelerated SWAT simulation using Intel C and FORTRAN compilers: Development and benchmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ki, Seo Jin; Sugimura, Tak; Kim, Albert S.

    2015-02-01

    We developed a practical method to accelerate execution of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using open (free) computational resources. The SWAT source code (rev 622) was recompiled using a non-commercial Intel FORTRAN compiler in Ubuntu 12.04 LTS Linux platform, and newly named iOMP-SWAT in this study. GNU utilities of make, gprof, and diff were used to develop the iOMP-SWAT package, profile memory usage, and check identicalness of parallel and serial simulations. Among 302 SWAT subroutines, the slowest routines were identified using GNU gprof, and later modified using Open Multiple Processing (OpenMP) library in an 8-core shared memory system. In addition, a C wrapping function was used to rapidly set large arrays to zero by cross compiling with the original SWAT FORTRAN package. A universal speedup ratio of 2.3 was achieved using input data sets of a large number of hydrological response units. As we specifically focus on acceleration of a single SWAT run, the use of iOMP-SWAT for parameter calibrations will significantly improve the performance of SWAT optimization.

  14. [Nitrogen non-point source pollution identification based on ArcSWAT in Changle River].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deng, Ou-Ping; Sun, Si-Yang; Lü, Jun

    2013-04-01

    The ArcSWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model was adopted for Non-point source (NPS) nitrogen pollution modeling and nitrogen source apportionment for the Changle River watershed, a typical agricultural watershed in Southeast China. Water quality and hydrological parameters were monitored, and the watershed natural conditions (including soil, climate, land use, etc) and pollution sources information were also investigated and collected for SWAT database. The ArcSWAT model was established in the Changle River after the calibrating and validating procedures of the model parameters. Based on the validated SWAT model, the contributions of different nitrogen sources to river TN loading were quantified, and spatial-temporal distributions of NPS nitrogen export to rivers were addressed. The results showed that in the Changle River watershed, Nitrogen fertilizer, nitrogen air deposition and nitrogen soil pool were the prominent pollution sources, which contributed 35%, 32% and 25% to the river TN loading, respectively. There were spatial-temporal variations in the critical sources for NPS TN export to the river. Natural sources, such as soil nitrogen pool and atmospheric nitrogen deposition, should be targeted as the critical sources for river TN pollution during the rainy seasons. Chemical nitrogen fertilizer application should be targeted as the critical sources for river TN pollution during the crop growing season. Chemical nitrogen fertilizer application, soil nitrogen pool and atmospheric nitrogen deposition were the main sources for TN exported from the garden plot, forest and residential land, respectively. However, they were the main sources for TN exported both from the upland and paddy field. These results revealed that NPS pollution controlling rules should focus on the spatio-temporal distribution of NPS pollution sources.

  15. Calibration of CORSIM models under saturated traffic flow conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This study proposes a methodology to calibrate microscopic traffic flow simulation models. : The proposed methodology has the capability to calibrate simultaneously all the calibration : parameters as well as demand patterns for any network topology....

  16. Evaluation of Gridded Precipitation Data for Driving SWAT Model in Area Upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yan; Wang, Guoqiang; Wang, Lijing; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Zongxue

    2014-01-01

    Gridded precipitation data are becoming an important source for driving hydrologic models to achieve stable and valid simulation results in different regions. Thus, evaluating different sources of precipitation data is important for improving the applicability of gridded data. In this study, we used three gridded rainfall datasets: 1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction - Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR); 2) Asian Precipitation - Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE); and 3) China trend - surface reanalysis (trend surface) data. These are compared with monitoring precipitation data for driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in two basins upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. The results of one test basin with significant topographic influence indicates that all the gridded data have poor abilities in reproducing hydrologic processes with the topographic influence on precipitation quantity and distribution. However, in a relatively flat test basin, the APHRODITE and trend surface data can give stable and desirable results. The results of this study suggest that precipitation data for future applications should be considered comprehensively in the TGR area, including the influence of data density and topography. PMID:25409467

  17. Evaluation of gridded precipitation data for driving SWAT model in area upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yan; Wang, Guoqiang; Wang, Lijing; Yu, Jingshan; Xu, Zongxue

    2014-01-01

    Gridded precipitation data are becoming an important source for driving hydrologic models to achieve stable and valid simulation results in different regions. Thus, evaluating different sources of precipitation data is important for improving the applicability of gridded data. In this study, we used three gridded rainfall datasets: 1) National Centers for Environmental Prediction-Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (NCEP-CFSR); 2) Asian Precipitation-Highly-Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards Evaluation (APHRODITE); and 3) China trend-surface reanalysis (trend surface) data. These are compared with monitoring precipitation data for driving the Soil and Water Assessment Tool in two basins upstream of Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China. The results of one test basin with significant topographic influence indicates that all the gridded data have poor abilities in reproducing hydrologic processes with the topographic influence on precipitation quantity and distribution. However, in a relatively flat test basin, the APHRODITE and trend surface data can give stable and desirable results. The results of this study suggest that precipitation data for future applications should be considered comprehensively in the TGR area, including the influence of data density and topography.

  18. Calibration models for high enthalpy calorimetric probes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kannel, A

    1978-07-01

    The accuracy of gas-aspirated liquid-cooled calorimetric probes used for measuring the enthalpy of high-temperature gas streams is studied. The error in the differential temperature measurements caused by internal and external heat transfer interactions is considered and quantified by mathematical models. The analysis suggests calibration methods for the evaluation of dimensionless heat transfer parameters in the models, which then can give a more accurate value for the enthalpy of the sample. Calibration models for four types of calorimeters are applied to results from the literature and from our own experiments: a circular slit calorimeter developed by the author, single-cooling jacket probe, double-cooling jacket probe, and split-flow cooling jacket probe. The results show that the models are useful for describing and correcting the temperature measurements.

  19. SURFplus Model Calibration for PBX 9502

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Menikoff, Ralph [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2017-12-06

    The SURFplus reactive burn model is calibrated for the TATB based explosive PBX 9502 at three initial temperatures; hot (75 C), ambient (23 C) and cold (-55 C). The CJ state depends on the initial temperature due to the variation in the initial density and initial specific energy of the PBX reactants. For the reactants, a porosity model for full density TATB is used. This allows the initial PBX density to be set to its measured value even though the coeffcient of thermal expansion for the TATB and the PBX differ. The PBX products EOS is taken as independent of the initial PBX state. The initial temperature also affects the sensitivity to shock initiation. The model rate parameters are calibrated to Pop plot data, the failure diameter, the limiting detonation speed just above the failure diameters, and curvature effect data for small curvature.

  20. Assessing River Low-Flow Uncertainties Related to Hydrological Model Calibration and Structure under Climate Change Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mélanie Trudel

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Low-flow is the flow of water in a river during prolonged dry weather. This paper investigated the uncertainty originating from hydrological model calibration and structure in low-flow simulations under climate change conditions. Two hydrological models of contrasting complexity, GR4J and SWAT, were applied to four sub-watersheds of the Yamaska River, Canada. The two models were calibrated using seven different objective functions including the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSEQ and six other objective functions more related to low flows. The uncertainty in the model parameters was evaluated using a PARAmeter SOLutions procedure (PARASOL. Twelve climate projections from different combinations of General Circulation Models (GCMs and Regional Circulation Models (RCMs were used to simulate low-flow indices in a reference (1970–2000 and future (2040–2070 horizon. Results indicate that the NSEQ objective function does not properly represent low-flow indices for either model. The NSE objective function applied to the log of the flows shows the lowest total variance for all sub-watersheds. In addition, these hydrological models should be used with care for low-flow studies, since they both show some inconsistent results. The uncertainty is higher for SWAT than for GR4J. With GR4J, the uncertainties in the simulations for the 7Q2 index (the 7-day low-flow value with a 2-year return period are lower for the future period than for the reference period. This can be explained by the analysis of hydrological processes. In the future horizon, a significant worsening of low-flow conditions was projected.

  1. High Accuracy Transistor Compact Model Calibrations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hembree, Charles E. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Mar, Alan [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Robertson, Perry J. [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Typically, transistors are modeled by the application of calibrated nominal and range models. These models consists of differing parameter values that describe the location and the upper and lower limits of a distribution of some transistor characteristic such as current capacity. Correspond- ingly, when using this approach, high degrees of accuracy of the transistor models are not expected since the set of models is a surrogate for a statistical description of the devices. The use of these types of models describes expected performances considering the extremes of process or transistor deviations. In contrast, circuits that have very stringent accuracy requirements require modeling techniques with higher accuracy. Since these accurate models have low error in transistor descriptions, these models can be used to describe part to part variations as well as an accurate description of a single circuit instance. Thus, models that meet these stipulations also enable the calculation of quantifi- cation of margins with respect to a functional threshold and uncertainties in these margins. Given this need, new model high accuracy calibration techniques for bipolar junction transis- tors have been developed and are described in this report.

  2. Gradient-based model calibration with proxy-model assistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burrows, Wesley; Doherty, John

    2016-02-01

    Use of a proxy model in gradient-based calibration and uncertainty analysis of a complex groundwater model with large run times and problematic numerical behaviour is described. The methodology is general, and can be used with models of all types. The proxy model is based on a series of analytical functions that link all model outputs used in the calibration process to all parameters requiring estimation. In enforcing history-matching constraints during the calibration and post-calibration uncertainty analysis processes, the proxy model is run for the purposes of populating the Jacobian matrix, while the original model is run when testing parameter upgrades; the latter process is readily parallelized. Use of a proxy model in this fashion dramatically reduces the computational burden of complex model calibration and uncertainty analysis. At the same time, the effect of model numerical misbehaviour on calculation of local gradients is mitigated, this allowing access to the benefits of gradient-based analysis where lack of integrity in finite-difference derivatives calculation would otherwise have impeded such access. Construction of a proxy model, and its subsequent use in calibration of a complex model, and in analysing the uncertainties of predictions made by that model, is implemented in the PEST suite.

  3. Electroweak Calibration of the Higgs Characterization Model

    CERN Multimedia

    CERN. Geneva

    2015-01-01

    I will present the preliminary results of histogram fits using the Higgs Combine histogram fitting package. These fits can be used to estimate the effects of electroweak contributions to the p p -> H mu+ mu- Higgs production channel and calibrate Beyond Standard Model (BSM) simulations which ignore these effects. I will emphasize my findings' significance in the context of other research here at CERN and in the broader world of high energy physics.

  4. Validation of integrated burnup code system SWAT2 by the analyses of isotopic composition of spent nuclear fuel

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suyama, K.; Mochizuki, H.; Okuno, H.; Miyoshi, Y.

    2004-01-01

    This paper provides validation results of SWAT2, the revised version of SWAT, which is a code system combining point burnup code ORIGEN2 and continuous energy Monte Carlo code MVP, by the analysis of post irradiation examinations (PIEs). Some isotopes show differences of calculation results between SWAT and SWAT2. However, generally, the differences are smaller than the error of PIE analysis that was reported in previous SWAT validation activity, and improved results are obtained for several important fission product nuclides. This study also includes comparison between an assembly and a single pin cell geometry models. (authors)

  5. Ideas for fast accelerator model calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corbett, J.

    1997-05-01

    With the advent of a simple matrix inversion technique, measurement-based storage ring modeling has made rapid progress in recent years. Using fast computers with large memory, the matrix inversion procedure typically adjusts up to 10 3 model variables to fit the order of 10 5 measurements. The results have been surprisingly accurate. Physics aside, one of the next frontiers is to simplify the process and to reduce computation time. In this paper, the authors discuss two approaches to speed up the model calibration process: recursive least-squares fitting and a piecewise fitting approach

  6. Model calibration for building energy efficiency simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mustafaraj, Giorgio; Marini, Dashamir; Costa, Andrea; Keane, Marcus

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Developing a 3D model relating to building architecture, occupancy and HVAC operation. • Two calibration stages developed, final model providing accurate results. • Using an onsite weather station for generating the weather data file in EnergyPlus. • Predicting thermal behaviour of underfloor heating, heat pump and natural ventilation. • Monthly energy saving opportunities related to heat pump of 20–27% was identified. - Abstract: This research work deals with an Environmental Research Institute (ERI) building where an underfloor heating system and natural ventilation are the main systems used to maintain comfort condition throughout 80% of the building areas. Firstly, this work involved developing a 3D model relating to building architecture, occupancy and HVAC operation. Secondly, the calibration methodology, which consists of two levels, was then applied in order to insure accuracy and reduce the likelihood of errors. To further improve the accuracy of calibration a historical weather data file related to year 2011, was created from the on-site local weather station of ERI building. After applying the second level of calibration process, the values of Mean bias Error (MBE) and Cumulative Variation of Root Mean Squared Error (CV(RMSE)) on hourly based analysis for heat pump electricity consumption varied within the following ranges: (MBE) hourly from −5.6% to 7.5% and CV(RMSE) hourly from 7.3% to 25.1%. Finally, the building was simulated with EnergyPlus to identify further possibilities of energy savings supplied by a water to water heat pump to underfloor heating system. It found that electricity consumption savings from the heat pump can vary between 20% and 27% on monthly bases

  7. Another look at volume self-calibration: calibration and self-calibration within a pinhole model of Scheimpflug cameras

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cornic, Philippe; Le Besnerais, Guy; Champagnat, Frédéric; Illoul, Cédric; Cheminet, Adam; Le Sant, Yves; Leclaire, Benjamin

    2016-01-01

    We address calibration and self-calibration of tomographic PIV experiments within a pinhole model of cameras. A complete and explicit pinhole model of a camera equipped with a 2-tilt angles Scheimpflug adapter is presented. It is then used in a calibration procedure based on a freely moving calibration plate. While the resulting calibrations are accurate enough for Tomo-PIV, we confirm, through a simple experiment, that they are not stable in time, and illustrate how the pinhole framework can be used to provide a quantitative evaluation of geometrical drifts in the setup. We propose an original self-calibration method based on global optimization of the extrinsic parameters of the pinhole model. These methods are successfully applied to the tomographic PIV of an air jet experiment. An unexpected by-product of our work is to show that volume self-calibration induces a change in the world frame coordinates. Provided the calibration drift is small, as generally observed in PIV, the bias on the estimated velocity field is negligible but the absolute location cannot be accurately recovered using standard calibration data. (paper)

  8. SWATMOD-PREP: Graphical user interface for preparing coupled SWAT-modflow simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents SWATMOD-Prep, a graphical user interface that couples a SWAT watershed model with a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. The interface is based on a recently published SWAT-MODFLOW code that couples the models via mapping schemes. The spatial layout of SWATMOD-Prep guides the user t...

  9. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dixon, P.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM is developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA (see upcoming REV 02 of CRWMS M and O 2000 [153314]), which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model (see BSC 2003 [161530]). The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model; (3) to use inverse modeling to calibrate the SCM and to estimate seepage-relevant, model-related parameters on the drift scale; (4) to estimate the epistemic uncertainty of the derived parameters, based on the goodness-of-fit to the observed data and the sensitivity of calculated seepage with respect to the parameters of interest; (5) to characterize the aleatory uncertainty

  10. Thermodynamically consistent model calibration in chemical kinetics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Goutsias John

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The dynamics of biochemical reaction systems are constrained by the fundamental laws of thermodynamics, which impose well-defined relationships among the reaction rate constants characterizing these systems. Constructing biochemical reaction systems from experimental observations often leads to parameter values that do not satisfy the necessary thermodynamic constraints. This can result in models that are not physically realizable and may lead to inaccurate, or even erroneous, descriptions of cellular function. Results We introduce a thermodynamically consistent model calibration (TCMC method that can be effectively used to provide thermodynamically feasible values for the parameters of an open biochemical reaction system. The proposed method formulates the model calibration problem as a constrained optimization problem that takes thermodynamic constraints (and, if desired, additional non-thermodynamic constraints into account. By calculating thermodynamically feasible values for the kinetic parameters of a well-known model of the EGF/ERK signaling cascade, we demonstrate the qualitative and quantitative significance of imposing thermodynamic constraints on these parameters and the effectiveness of our method for accomplishing this important task. MATLAB software, using the Systems Biology Toolbox 2.1, can be accessed from http://www.cis.jhu.edu/~goutsias/CSS lab/software.html. An SBML file containing the thermodynamically feasible EGF/ERK signaling cascade model can be found in the BioModels database. Conclusions TCMC is a simple and flexible method for obtaining physically plausible values for the kinetic parameters of open biochemical reaction systems. It can be effectively used to recalculate a thermodynamically consistent set of parameter values for existing thermodynamically infeasible biochemical reaction models of cellular function as well as to estimate thermodynamically feasible values for the parameters of new

  11. Calibration of hydrological model with programme PEST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brilly, Mitja; Vidmar, Andrej; Kryžanowski, Andrej; Bezak, Nejc; Šraj, Mojca

    2016-04-01

    PEST is tool based on minimization of an objective function related to the root mean square error between the model output and the measurement. We use "singular value decomposition", section of the PEST control file, and Tikhonov regularization method for successfully estimation of model parameters. The PEST sometimes failed if inverse problems were ill-posed, but (SVD) ensures that PEST maintains numerical stability. The choice of the initial guess for the initial parameter values is an important issue in the PEST and need expert knowledge. The flexible nature of the PEST software and its ability to be applied to whole catchments at once give results of calibration performed extremely well across high number of sub catchments. Use of parallel computing version of PEST called BeoPEST was successfully useful to speed up calibration process. BeoPEST employs smart slaves and point-to-point communications to transfer data between the master and slaves computers. The HBV-light model is a simple multi-tank-type model for simulating precipitation-runoff. It is conceptual balance model of catchment hydrology which simulates discharge using rainfall, temperature and estimates of potential evaporation. Version of HBV-light-CLI allows the user to run HBV-light from the command line. Input and results files are in XML form. This allows to easily connecting it with other applications such as pre and post-processing utilities and PEST itself. The procedure was applied on hydrological model of Savinja catchment (1852 km2) and consists of twenty one sub-catchments. Data are temporary processed on hourly basis.

  12. Calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Greacen, E.L.; Correll, R.L.; Cunningham, R.B.; Johns, G.G.; Nicolls, K.D.

    1981-01-01

    Procedures common to different methods of calibration of neutron moisture meters are outlined and laboratory and field calibration methods compared. Gross errors which arise from faulty calibration techniques are described. The count rate can be affected by the dry bulk density of the soil, the volumetric content of constitutional hydrogen and other chemical components of the soil and soil solution. Calibration is further complicated by the fact that the neutron meter responds more strongly to the soil properties close to the detector and source. The differences in slope of calibration curves for different soils can be as much as 40%

  13. Calibration of discrete element model parameters: soybeans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghodki, Bhupendra M.; Patel, Manish; Namdeo, Rohit; Carpenter, Gopal

    2018-05-01

    Discrete element method (DEM) simulations are broadly used to get an insight of flow characteristics of granular materials in complex particulate systems. DEM input parameters for a model are the critical prerequisite for an efficient simulation. Thus, the present investigation aims to determine DEM input parameters for Hertz-Mindlin model using soybeans as a granular material. To achieve this aim, widely acceptable calibration approach was used having standard box-type apparatus. Further, qualitative and quantitative findings such as particle profile, height of kernels retaining the acrylic wall, and angle of repose of experiments and numerical simulations were compared to get the parameters. The calibrated set of DEM input parameters includes the following (a) material properties: particle geometric mean diameter (6.24 mm); spherical shape; particle density (1220 kg m^{-3} ), and (b) interaction parameters such as particle-particle: coefficient of restitution (0.17); coefficient of static friction (0.26); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08), and particle-wall: coefficient of restitution (0.35); coefficient of static friction (0.30); coefficient of rolling friction (0.08). The results may adequately be used to simulate particle scale mechanics (grain commingling, flow/motion, forces, etc) of soybeans in post-harvest machinery and devices.

  14. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    S. Finsterle

    2004-09-02

    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM was developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). This Model Report has been revised in response to a comprehensive, regulatory-focused evaluation performed by the Regulatory Integration Team [''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Evaluation of Analysis and Model Reports Supporting the TSPA-LA'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169653])]. The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross-Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA [''Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 167652])], which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model [see ''Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and TH Seepage) Models'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170338])]. The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross-Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross

  15. Seepage Calibration Model and Seepage Testing Data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Finsterle, S.

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this Model Report is to document the Seepage Calibration Model (SCM). The SCM was developed (1) to establish the conceptual basis for the Seepage Model for Performance Assessment (SMPA), and (2) to derive seepage-relevant, model-related parameters and their distributions for use in the SMPA and seepage abstraction in support of the Total System Performance Assessment for License Application (TSPA-LA). This Model Report has been revised in response to a comprehensive, regulatory-focused evaluation performed by the Regulatory Integration Team [''Technical Work Plan for: Regulatory Integration Evaluation of Analysis and Model Reports Supporting the TSPA-LA'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 169653])]. The SCM is intended to be used only within this Model Report for the estimation of seepage-relevant parameters through calibration of the model against seepage-rate data from liquid-release tests performed in several niches along the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) Main Drift and in the Cross-Drift. The SCM does not predict seepage into waste emplacement drifts under thermal or ambient conditions. Seepage predictions for waste emplacement drifts under ambient conditions will be performed with the SMPA [''Seepage Model for PA Including Drift Collapse'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 167652])], which inherits the conceptual basis and model-related parameters from the SCM. Seepage during the thermal period is examined separately in the Thermal Hydrologic (TH) Seepage Model [see ''Drift-Scale Coupled Processes (DST and TH Seepage) Models'' (BSC 2004 [DIRS 170338])]. The scope of this work is (1) to evaluate seepage rates measured during liquid-release experiments performed in several niches in the Exploratory Studies Facility (ESF) and in the Cross-Drift, which was excavated for enhanced characterization of the repository block (ECRB); (2) to evaluate air-permeability data measured in boreholes above the niches and the Cross-Drift to obtain the permeability structure for the seepage model

  16. Modeling the Effects of Onsite Wastewater Treatment Systems on Nitrate Loads Using SWAT in an Urban Watershed of Metropolitan Atlanta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoghooghi, Nahal; Radcliffe, David E; Habteselassie, Mussie Y; Jeong, Jaehak

    2017-05-01

    Onsite wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs) can be a source of nitrogen (N) pollution in both surface and ground waters. In metropolitan Atlanta, GA, >26% of homes are on OWTSs. In a previous article, we used the Soil Water Assessment Tool to model the effect of OWTSs on stream flow in the Big Haynes Creek Watershed in metropolitan Atlanta. The objective of this study was to estimate the effect of OWTSs, including failing systems, on nitrate as N (NO-N) load in the same watershed. Big Haynes Creek has a drainage area of 44 km with mainly urban land use (67%), and most of the homes use OWTSs. A USGS gauge station where stream flow was measured daily and NO-N concentrations were measured monthly was used as the outlet. The model was simulated for 12 yr. Overall, the model showed satisfactory daily stream flow and NO-N loads with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients of 0.62 and 0.58 for the calibration period and 0.67 and 0.33 for the validation period at the outlet of the Big Haynes Watershed. Onsite wastewater treatment systems caused an average increase in NO-N load of 23% at the watershed scale and 29% at the outlet of a subbasin with the highest density of OWTSs. Failing OWTSs were estimated to be 1% of the total systems and did not have a large impact on stream flow or NO-N load. The NO-N load was 74% of the total N load in the watershed, indicating the important effect of OWTSs on stream loads in this urban watershed. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. Application Of Hydrological Models In Poorly Gauged Watersheds A Review Of The Usage Of The Soil And Water Assessment Tool SWAT In Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wambugu Mwangi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In water-scarce developing countries river basins are some of the most valued natural resources but many are poorly gauged and have incomplete hydrological and climate records. In the recent years tropical rivers are increasingly becoming erratic with many hydrologists attributing this variability to combined effects of landscape-specific anthropogenic activities and climate change. Uncertainties about the impacts of climate change compound the challenges attributed to poor and often inconsistent river monitoring data. Under data-scarce conditions and with the increasing land use intensification and urbanization modelling approaches become a useful tool in planning and management of water resources. In this paper we review the application and usability of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool SWAT model in conventional planning practice in the management of water resources is poorly-gauged tropical watersheds of Kenya. We assess the technical implications of the model in Intergrated Water Resources management IWRM and its applicability as a planning and management tool for water resources in the era of climate change.

  18. Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Xuesong

    2016-01-01

    As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio-E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio-LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWAT model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT's performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests. - Graphical abstract: Evaluating and improving SWAT simulations of water and carbon cycling over ten AmeriFlux sites across the United States. - Highlights: • The default forest parameterization in SWAT results in inadequate simulations of water and carbon. • Radiation use efficiency, leaf to biomass fraction, and parent material weathering processes are modified. • Revised SWAT provides improved simulations of evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange

  19. Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Qichun [Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Lab, College Park, MD 20740 (United States); Zhang, Xuesong, E-mail: xuesong.zhang@pnnl.gov [Joint Global Change Research Institute, Pacific Northwest National Lab, College Park, MD 20740 (United States); Great Lakes Bioenergy Research Center, Michigan State University, East Lansing, MI 48824 (United States)

    2016-11-01

    As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio-E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio-LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWAT model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT's performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests. - Graphical abstract: Evaluating and improving SWAT simulations of water and carbon cycling over ten AmeriFlux sites across the United States. - Highlights: • The default forest parameterization in SWAT results in inadequate simulations of water and carbon. • Radiation use efficiency, leaf to biomass fraction, and parent material weathering processes are modified. • Revised SWAT provides improved simulations of evapotranspiration and net ecosystem exchange.

  20. Modeling of Faecal Contamination in Water from Catchment to Shellfish Growing Area

    OpenAIRE

    Bougeard, Morgane; Le Saux, Jean-claude; Perenne, Nicolas; Le Guyader, Soizick; Pommepuy, Monique

    2009-01-01

    During rainstorms, watersheds can introduce large amounts of faecal pollution into the rivers and sea, leading to shellfish contamination. In this study, we assessed Escherichia coli fluxes from a catchment, and their impact on estuarine water quality, using two assembled models. For the catchment, the agro-hydrological model SWAT was implemented integrating land uses, soil, topography, rainfall and other climatic data on Daoulas watershed (France). Initially, the SWAT model was calibrated an...

  1. Application of SWAT99.2 to sensitivity analysis of water balance components in unique plots in a hilly region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-feng Dai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although many sensitivity analyses using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT in a complex watershed have been conducted, little attention has been paid to the application potential of the model in unique plots. In addition, sensitivity analysis of percolation and evapotranspiration with SWAT has seldom been undertaken. In this study, SWAT99.2 was calibrated to simulate water balance components for unique plots in Southern China from 2000 to 2001, which included surface runoff, percolation, and evapotranspiration. Twenty-one parameters classified into four categories, including meteorological conditions, topographical characteristics, soil properties, and vegetation attributes, were used for sensitivity analysis through one-at-a-time (OAT sampling to identify the factor that contributed most to the variance in water balance components. The results were shown to be different for different plots, with parameter sensitivity indices and ranks varying for different water balance components. Water balance components in the broad-leaved forest and natural grass plots were most sensitive to meteorological conditions, less sensitive to vegetation attributes and soil properties, and least sensitive to topographical characteristics. Compared to those in the natural grass plot, water balance components in the broad-leaved forest plot demonstrated higher sensitivity to the maximum stomatal conductance (GSI and maximum leaf area index (BLAI.

  2. DEM Resolution Impact on the Estimation of the Physical Characteristics of Watersheds by Using SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waranyu Buakhao

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available A digital elevation model (DEM is an important spatial input for automatic extraction of topographic parameters for the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to investigate the impact of DEM resolution (from 5 to 90 m on the delineation process of a SWAT model with two types of watershed characteristics (flat area and mountain area and three sizes of watershed area (about 20,000, 200,000, and 1,500,000 hectares. The results showed that the total lengths of the streamline, main channel slope, watershed area, and area slope were significantly different when using the DEM datasets to delineate. Delineation using the SRTM DEM (90 m, ASTER DEM (30 m, and LDD DEM (5 m for all watershed characteristics showed that the watershed sizes and shapes obtained were only slightly different, whereas the area slopes obtained were significantly different. The total lengths of the generated streams increased when the resolution of the DEM used was higher. The stream slopes obtained using the small area sizes were insignificant, whereas the slopes obtained using the large area sizes were significantly different. This suggests that water resource model users should use the ASTER DEM as opposed to a finer resolution DEM for model input to save time for the model calibration and validation.

  3. Assessing the cumulative impacts of geographically isolated wetlands on watershed hydrology using the SWAT model coupled with improved wetland modules.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S; Yeo, I-Y; Lang, M W; Sadeghi, A M; McCarty, G W; Moglen, G E; Evenson, G R

    2018-06-07

    Despite recognizing the importance of wetlands in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) in terms of ecosystem services, our understanding of wetland functions has mostly been limited to individual wetlands and overall catchment-scale wetland functions have rarely been investigated. This study is aimed at assessing the cumulative impacts of wetlands on watershed hydrology for an agricultural watershed within the Coastal Plain of the CBW using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). We employed two improved wetland modules for enhanced representation of physical processes and spatial distribution of riparian wetlands (RWs) and geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs). This study focused on GIWs as their hydrological impacts on watershed hydrology are poorly understood and GIWs are poorly protected. Multiple wetland scenarios were prepared by removing all or portions of the baseline GIW condition indicated by the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service National Wetlands Inventory geospatial dataset. We further compared the impacts of GIWs and RWs on downstream flow (i.e., streamflow at the watershed outlet). Our simulation results showed that GIWs strongly influenced downstream flow by altering water transport mechanisms in upstream areas. Loss of all GIWs reduced both water routed to GIWs and water infiltrated into the soil through the bottom of GIWs, leading to an increase in surface runoff of 9% and a decrease in groundwater flow of 7% in upstream areas. These changes resulted in increased variability of downstream flow in response to extreme flow conditions. GIW loss also induced an increase in month to month variability of downstream flow and a decrease in the baseflow contribution to streamflow. Loss of all GIWs was shown to cause a greater fluctuation of downstream flow than loss of all RWs for this study site, due to a greater total water storage capacity of GIWs. Our findings indicate that GIWs play a significant role in controlling hydrological

  4. Assessment of TRMM Products and Their Influence on Hydrologic Models within the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) Region Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milewski, A.; El Kadiri, R.; Durham, M. C.

    2013-12-01

    Satellite remote sensing datasets have been increasingly employed as an ancillary source of essential hydrologic measurements used for the modeling of hydrologic fluxes. Precipitation is one of the most important meteorological forcing parameter in hydrological investigations and land surface modeling, yet it is largely unknown or misused in water budgets and hydrologic models. The Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) satellite products are widely being used by the scientific community due to the general spatial and temporal paucity of precipitation data in many parts of world and particularly in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region. This research utilized a two-fold approach towards understanding the accuracy of satellite-based rainfall and its application in hydrologic models First, we evaluated the uncertainty, accuracy, and precision of various rainfall satellite products (i.e. TRMM 3B42 V6, TRMM 3B42 V7, TRMM 3B42 V7a and TRMM 3B42 RT) in comparison to in situ gauge data from more than 150 rain gauges in Morocco and across the MENA region. Our analyses extend over many parts of the MENA region in order to assess the effect that different climatic regimes and topographic characteristics have on each TRMM product. Secondly, we analyzed and compared the hydrologic fluxes produced from different modeling inputs for several watersheds within the MENA region. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) hydrologic models have been developed for the Oum Er Rbia (Morocco), Asyuti (Egypt), and the Sakarya (Turkey) watersheds. SWAT models produced for each watershed include, one model for each of the four satellite TRMM product (STBM-V6, STBM-V7, STBM-V7a, and STBM-RT) and one model for rain gauge based model (RGBM). Findings indicate the best correlation between field-based and satellite-based rainfall measurements is the TRMM V7a (Pearson coefficient: 0.875) product, followed by TRMM V7 (Pearson coefficient: 0.84), then TRMM V6 (Pearson coefficient: 0

  5. Case Study: Effect of Climatic Characterization on River Discharge in an Alpine-Prealpine Catchment of the Spanish Pyrenees Using the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leticia Palazón

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The new challenges in assessment of water resources demand new approaches and tools, such as the use of hydrologic models, which could serve to assist managers in the prediction, planning and management of catchment water supplies in view of increased demand of water for irrigation and climatic change. Good characterization of the spatial patterns of climate variables is of paramount importance in hydrological modelling. This is especially so when modelling mountain environments which are characterized by strong altitudinal climate gradients. However, very often there is a poor distribution of climatic stations in these areas, which in many cases, results in under representation of high altitude areas with respect to climatic data. This results in the poor performance of the models. In the present study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to the Barasona reservoir catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees in order to assess the influence of different climatic characterizations in the monthly river discharges. Four simulations with different input data were assessed, using only the available climate data (A1; the former plus one synthetic dataset at a higher altitude (B1; and both plus the altitudinal climate gradient (A2 and B2. The model’s performance was evaluated against the river discharges for the representative periods of 2003–2005 and 1994–1996 by means of commonly used statistical measures. The best results were obtained using the altitudinal climate gradient alone (scenario A2. This study provided insight into the importance of taking into account the sources and the spatial distribution of weather data in modelling water resources in mountainous catchments.

  6. Future water availability in the largest freshwater Mediterranean lake is at great risk as evidenced from simulations with the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bucak, Tuba; Trolle, Dennis; Andersen, Hans Estrup; Thodsen, Hans; Erdoğan, Şeyda; Levi, Eti E; Filiz, Nur; Jeppesen, Erik; Beklioğlu, Meryem

    2017-03-01

    Inter- and intra-annual water level fluctuations and changes in water flow regime are intrinsic characteristics of Mediterranean lakes. Additionally, considering climate change projections for the water-limited Mediterranean region, increased air temperatures and decreased precipitation are anticipated, leading to dramatic declines in lake water levels as well as severe water scarcity problems. The study site, Lake Beyşehir, the largest freshwater lake in the Mediterranean basin, is - like other Mediterranean lakes - threatened by climatic changes and over-abstraction of water for irrigated crop farming. Therefore, implementation of strict water level management policies is required. In this study, an integrated modeling approach was used to predict the future water levels of Lake Beyşehir in response to potential future changes in climate and land use. Water level estimation was performed by linking the catchment model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with a Support Vector Regression model (ε-SVR). The projected increase in temperature and decrease in precipitation based on the climate change models led to an enhanced potential evapotranspiration and reduced total runoff. On the other hand, the effects of various land use scenarios within the catchment appeared to be comparatively insignificant. According to the ε-SVR model results, changes in hydrological processes caused a water level reduction for all scenarios. Moreover, the MPI-ESM-MR General Circulation Model outputs produced the most dramatic results by predicting that Lake Beyşehir may dry out by the 2040s with the current outflow regime. The results indicate that shallow Mediterranean lakes may face a severe risk of drying out and losing their ecosystem values in the near future if the current intensity of water abstraction is not reduced. In addition, the results also demonstrate that outflow management and sustainable use of water sources are vital to sustain lake ecosystems in water

  7. Fecal bacteria source characterization and sensitivity analysis of SWAT 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2005 includes a microbial sub-model to simulate fecal bacteria transport at the watershed scale. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to characterize fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) source loads and to assess the model sensitivity t...

  8. Influence of rainfall observation network on model calibration and application

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Bárdossy

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective in this study is to investigate the influence of the spatial resolution of the rainfall input on the model calibration and application. The analysis is carried out by varying the distribution of the raingauge network. A meso-scale catchment located in southwest Germany has been selected for this study. First, the semi-distributed HBV model is calibrated with the precipitation interpolated from the available observed rainfall of the different raingauge networks. An automatic calibration method based on the combinatorial optimization algorithm simulated annealing is applied. The performance of the hydrological model is analyzed as a function of the raingauge density. Secondly, the calibrated model is validated using interpolated precipitation from the same raingauge density used for the calibration as well as interpolated precipitation based on networks of reduced and increased raingauge density. Lastly, the effect of missing rainfall data is investigated by using a multiple linear regression approach for filling in the missing measurements. The model, calibrated with the complete set of observed data, is then run in the validation period using the above described precipitation field. The simulated hydrographs obtained in the above described three sets of experiments are analyzed through the comparisons of the computed Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and several goodness-of-fit indexes. The results show that the model using different raingauge networks might need re-calibration of the model parameters, specifically model calibrated on relatively sparse precipitation information might perform well on dense precipitation information while model calibrated on dense precipitation information fails on sparse precipitation information. Also, the model calibrated with the complete set of observed precipitation and run with incomplete observed data associated with the data estimated using multiple linear regressions, at the locations treated as

  9. Comparison of performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT 2009 and 2012 in an extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Guo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Subsurface tile drainage systems are widely used in agricultural watersheds in the Midwestern US and enable the Midwest area to become highly productive agricultural lands, but can also create environmental problems, for example nitrate-N contamination associated with drainage waters. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT has been used to model watersheds with tile drainage. SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 provide new tile drainage routines. However, few studies have used these revisions to study tile drainage impacts at both field and watershed scales. Moreover, SWAT2012 revision 645 improved the soil moisture based curve number calculation method, which has not been fully tested. This study used long-term (1991–2003 field site and river station data from the Little Vermilion River (LVR watershed to evaluate performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT2009 revision 528 (the old routine and SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 (the new routine. Both the old and new routines provided reasonable but unsatisfactory (NSE  <  0.5 uncalibrated flow and nitrate loss results for a mildly sloped watershed with low runoff. The calibrated monthly tile flow, surface flow, nitrate-N in tile and surface flow, sediment and annual corn and soybean yield results from SWAT with the old and new tile drainage routines were compared with observed values. Generally, the new routine provided acceptable simulated tile flow (NSE  =  0.48–0.65 and nitrate in tile flow (NSE  =  0.48–0.68 for field sites with random pattern tile and constant tile spacing, while the old routine simulated tile flow and nitrate in tile flow results for the field site with constant tile spacing were unacceptable (NSE  =  0.00–0.32 and −0.29–0.06, respectively. The new modified curve number calculation method in revision 645 (NSE  =  0.50–0.81 better simulated surface runoff than revision 615 (NSE  =  −0.11–0.49. The calibration

  10. Comparison of performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT 2009 and 2012 in an extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Tian; Gitau, Margaret; Merwade, Venkatesh; Arnold, Jeffrey; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Hirschi, Michael; Engel, Bernard

    2018-01-01

    Subsurface tile drainage systems are widely used in agricultural watersheds in the Midwestern US and enable the Midwest area to become highly productive agricultural lands, but can also create environmental problems, for example nitrate-N contamination associated with drainage waters. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to model watersheds with tile drainage. SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 provide new tile drainage routines. However, few studies have used these revisions to study tile drainage impacts at both field and watershed scales. Moreover, SWAT2012 revision 645 improved the soil moisture based curve number calculation method, which has not been fully tested. This study used long-term (1991-2003) field site and river station data from the Little Vermilion River (LVR) watershed to evaluate performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT2009 revision 528 (the old routine) and SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 (the new routine). Both the old and new routines provided reasonable but unsatisfactory (NSE runoff. The calibrated monthly tile flow, surface flow, nitrate-N in tile and surface flow, sediment and annual corn and soybean yield results from SWAT with the old and new tile drainage routines were compared with observed values. Generally, the new routine provided acceptable simulated tile flow (NSE = 0.48-0.65) and nitrate in tile flow (NSE = 0.48-0.68) for field sites with random pattern tile and constant tile spacing, while the old routine simulated tile flow and nitrate in tile flow results for the field site with constant tile spacing were unacceptable (NSE = 0.00-0.32 and -0.29-0.06, respectively). The new modified curve number calculation method in revision 645 (NSE = 0.50-0.81) better simulated surface runoff than revision 615 (NSE = -0.11-0.49). The calibration provided reasonable parameter sets for the old and new routines in the LVR watershed, and the validation results showed that the new routine has the potential to accurately

  11. A single model procedure for estimating tank calibration equations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liebetrau, A.M.

    1997-10-01

    A fundamental component of any accountability system for nuclear materials is a tank calibration equation that relates the height of liquid in a tank to its volume. Tank volume calibration equations are typically determined from pairs of height and volume measurements taken in a series of calibration runs. After raw calibration data are standardized to a fixed set of reference conditions, the calibration equation is typically fit by dividing the data into several segments--corresponding to regions in the tank--and independently fitting the data for each segment. The estimates obtained for individual segments must then be combined to obtain an estimate of the entire calibration function. This process is tedious and time-consuming. Moreover, uncertainty estimates may be misleading because it is difficult to properly model run-to-run variability and between-segment correlation. In this paper, the authors describe a model whose parameters can be estimated simultaneously for all segments of the calibration data, thereby eliminating the need for segment-by-segment estimation. The essence of the proposed model is to define a suitable polynomial to fit to each segment and then extend its definition to the domain of the entire calibration function, so that it (the entire calibration function) can be expressed as the sum of these extended polynomials. The model provides defensible estimates of between-run variability and yields a proper treatment of between-segment correlations. A portable software package, called TANCS, has been developed to facilitate the acquisition, standardization, and analysis of tank calibration data. The TANCS package was used for the calculations in an example presented to illustrate the unified modeling approach described in this paper. With TANCS, a trial calibration function can be estimated and evaluated in a matter of minutes

  12. Příprava podkladů pro modelování odtoku a odnosu látek v prostředí SWAT

    OpenAIRE

    HOMOLKA, Jan

    2012-01-01

    This bachelor thesis is dealing with preparation bases for modelation draining and carrying materials in SWAT model. Thesis includes literature search about basis of SWAT model, SWAT development, preferences and imprefections of this model. It?s also going over various modelations and general division. Further describes necessary input data, their types and requirements without which would be impossible to complete this task. I?ve chosen Jenín stream basin located near village Jenín which is ...

  13. Calibration of the Site-Scale Saturated Zone Flow Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zyvoloski, G. A.

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the flow calibration analysis work is to provide Performance Assessment (PA) with the calibrated site-scale saturated zone (SZ) flow model that will be used to make radionuclide transport calculations. As such, it is one of the most important models developed in the Yucca Mountain project. This model will be a culmination of much of our knowledge of the SZ flow system. The objective of this study is to provide a defensible site-scale SZ flow and transport model that can be used for assessing total system performance. A defensible model would include geologic and hydrologic data that are used to form the hydrogeologic framework model; also, it would include hydrochemical information to infer transport pathways, in-situ permeability measurements, and water level and head measurements. In addition, the model should include information on major model sensitivities. Especially important are those that affect calibration, the direction of transport pathways, and travel times. Finally, if warranted, alternative calibrations representing different conceptual models should be included. To obtain a defensible model, all available data should be used (or at least considered) to obtain a calibrated model. The site-scale SZ model was calibrated using measured and model-generated water levels and hydraulic head data, specific discharge calculations, and flux comparisons along several of the boundaries. Model validity was established by comparing model-generated permeabilities with the permeability data from field and laboratory tests; by comparing fluid pathlines obtained from the SZ flow model with those inferred from hydrochemical data; and by comparing the upward gradient generated with the model with that observed in the field. This analysis is governed by the Office of Civilian Radioactive Waste Management (OCRWM) Analysis and Modeling Report (AMR) Development Plan ''Calibration of the Site-Scale Saturated Zone Flow Model'' (CRWMS M and O 1999a)

  14. Model Calibration of Exciter and PSS Using Extended Kalman Filter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kalsi, Karanjit; Du, Pengwei; Huang, Zhenyu

    2012-07-26

    Power system modeling and controls continue to become more complex with the advent of smart grid technologies and large-scale deployment of renewable energy resources. As demonstrated in recent studies, inaccurate system models could lead to large-scale blackouts, thereby motivating the need for model calibration. Current methods of model calibration rely on manual tuning based on engineering experience, are time consuming and could yield inaccurate parameter estimates. In this paper, the Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) is used as a tool to calibrate exciter and Power System Stabilizer (PSS) models of a particular type of machine in the Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC). The EKF-based parameter estimation is a recursive prediction-correction process which uses the mismatch between simulation and measurement to adjust the model parameters at every time step. Numerical simulations using actual field test data demonstrate the effectiveness of the proposed approach in calibrating the parameters.

  15. Hand-eye calibration using a target registration error model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Elvis C S; Morgan, Isabella; Jayarathne, Uditha; Ma, Burton; Peters, Terry M

    2017-10-01

    Surgical cameras are prevalent in modern operating theatres and are often used as a surrogate for direct vision. Visualisation techniques (e.g. image fusion) made possible by tracking the camera require accurate hand-eye calibration between the camera and the tracking system. The authors introduce the concept of 'guided hand-eye calibration', where calibration measurements are facilitated by a target registration error (TRE) model. They formulate hand-eye calibration as a registration problem between homologous point-line pairs. For each measurement, the position of a monochromatic ball-tip stylus (a point) and its projection onto the image (a line) is recorded, and the TRE of the resulting calibration is predicted using a TRE model. The TRE model is then used to guide the placement of the calibration tool, so that the subsequent measurement minimises the predicted TRE. Assessing TRE after each measurement produces accurate calibration using a minimal number of measurements. As a proof of principle, they evaluated guided calibration using a webcam and an endoscopic camera. Their endoscopic camera results suggest that millimetre TRE is achievable when at least 15 measurements are acquired with the tracker sensor ∼80 cm away on the laparoscope handle for a target ∼20 cm away from the camera.

  16. Fermentation process tracking through enhanced spectral calibration modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Triadaphillou, Sophia; Martin, Elaine; Montague, Gary; Norden, Alison; Jeffkins, Paul; Stimpson, Sarah

    2007-06-15

    The FDA process analytical technology (PAT) initiative will materialize in a significant increase in the number of installations of spectroscopic instrumentation. However, to attain the greatest benefit from the data generated, there is a need for calibration procedures that extract the maximum information content. For example, in fermentation processes, the interpretation of the resulting spectra is challenging as a consequence of the large number of wavelengths recorded, the underlying correlation structure that is evident between the wavelengths and the impact of the measurement environment. Approaches to the development of calibration models have been based on the application of partial least squares (PLS) either to the full spectral signature or to a subset of wavelengths. This paper presents a new approach to calibration modeling that combines a wavelength selection procedure, spectral window selection (SWS), where windows of wavelengths are automatically selected which are subsequently used as the basis of the calibration model. However, due to the non-uniqueness of the windows selected when the algorithm is executed repeatedly, multiple models are constructed and these are then combined using stacking thereby increasing the robustness of the final calibration model. The methodology is applied to data generated during the monitoring of broth concentrations in an industrial fermentation process from on-line near-infrared (NIR) and mid-infrared (MIR) spectrometers. It is shown that the proposed calibration modeling procedure outperforms traditional calibration procedures, as well as enabling the identification of the critical regions of the spectra with regard to the fermentation process.

  17. hydroPSO: A Versatile Particle Swarm Optimisation R Package for Calibration of Environmental Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zambrano-Bigiarini, M.; Rojas, R.

    2012-04-01

    Optimisation (IPSO), Fully Informed Particle Swarm (FIPS), and weighted FIPS (wFIPS). Finally, an advanced sensitivity analysis using the Latin Hypercube One-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) method and user-friendly plotting summaries facilitate the interpretation and assessment of the calibration/optimisation results. We validate hydroPSO against the standard PSO algorithm (SPSO-2007) employing five test functions commonly used to assess the performance of optimisation algorithms. Additionally, we illustrate how the performance of the optimization/calibration engine is boosted by using several of the fine-tune options included in hydroPSO. Finally, we show how to interface SWAT-2005 with hydroPSO to calibrate a semi-distributed hydrological model for the Ega River basin in Spain, and how to interface MODFLOW-2000 and hydroPSO to calibrate a groundwater flow model for the regional aquifer of the Pampa del Tamarugal in Chile. We limit the applications of hydroPSO to study cases dealing with surface water and groundwater models as these two are the authors' areas of expertise. However, based on the flexibility of hydroPSO we believe this package can be implemented to any model code requiring some form of parameter estimation.

  18. Cosmic CARNage I: on the calibration of galaxy formation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knebe, Alexander; Pearce, Frazer R.; Gonzalez-Perez, Violeta; Thomas, Peter A.; Benson, Andrew; Asquith, Rachel; Blaizot, Jeremy; Bower, Richard; Carretero, Jorge; Castander, Francisco J.; Cattaneo, Andrea; Cora, Sofía A.; Croton, Darren J.; Cui, Weiguang; Cunnama, Daniel; Devriendt, Julien E.; Elahi, Pascal J.; Font, Andreea; Fontanot, Fabio; Gargiulo, Ignacio D.; Helly, John; Henriques, Bruno; Lee, Jaehyun; Mamon, Gary A.; Onions, Julian; Padilla, Nelson D.; Power, Chris; Pujol, Arnau; Ruiz, Andrés N.; Srisawat, Chaichalit; Stevens, Adam R. H.; Tollet, Edouard; Vega-Martínez, Cristian A.; Yi, Sukyoung K.

    2018-04-01

    We present a comparison of nine galaxy formation models, eight semi-analytical, and one halo occupation distribution model, run on the same underlying cold dark matter simulation (cosmological box of comoving width 125h-1 Mpc, with a dark-matter particle mass of 1.24 × 109h-1M⊙) and the same merger trees. While their free parameters have been calibrated to the same observational data sets using two approaches, they nevertheless retain some `memory' of any previous calibration that served as the starting point (especially for the manually tuned models). For the first calibration, models reproduce the observed z = 0 galaxy stellar mass function (SMF) within 3σ. The second calibration extended the observational data to include the z = 2 SMF alongside the z ˜ 0 star formation rate function, cold gas mass, and the black hole-bulge mass relation. Encapsulating the observed evolution of the SMF from z = 2 to 0 is found to be very hard within the context of the physics currently included in the models. We finally use our calibrated models to study the evolution of the stellar-to-halo mass (SHM) ratio. For all models, we find that the peak value of the SHM relation decreases with redshift. However, the trends seen for the evolution of the peak position as well as the mean scatter in the SHM relation are rather weak and strongly model dependent. Both the calibration data sets and model results are publicly available.

  19. Cumulative error models for the tank calibration problem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goldman, A.; Anderson, L.G.; Weber, J.

    1983-01-01

    The purpose of a tank calibration equation is to obtain an estimate of the liquid volume that corresponds to a liquid level measurement. Calibration experimental errors occur in both liquid level and liquid volume measurements. If one of the errors is relatively small, the calibration equation can be determined from wellknown regression and calibration methods. If both variables are assumed to be in error, then for linear cases a prototype model should be considered. Many investigators are not familiar with this model or do not have computing facilities capable of obtaining numerical solutions. This paper discusses and compares three linear models that approximate the prototype model and have the advantage of much simpler computations. Comparisons among the four models and recommendations of suitability are made from simulations and from analyses of six sets of experimental data

  20. Testing of a one dimensional model for Field II calibration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bæk, David; Jensen, Jørgen Arendt; Willatzen, Morten

    2008-01-01

    Field II is a program for simulating ultrasound transducer fields. It is capable of calculating the emitted and pulse-echoed fields for both pulsed and continuous wave transducers. To make it fully calibrated a model of the transducer’s electro-mechanical impulse response must be included. We...... examine an adapted one dimensional transducer model originally proposed by Willatzen [9] to calibrate Field II. This model is modified to calculate the required impulse responses needed by Field II for a calibrated field pressure and external circuit current calculation. The testing has been performed...... to the calibrated Field II program for 1, 4, and 10 cycle excitations. Two parameter sets were applied for modeling, one real valued Pz27 parameter set, manufacturer supplied, and one complex valued parameter set found in literature, Alguer´o et al. [11]. The latter implicitly accounts for attenuation. Results show...

  1. Balance between calibration objectives in a conceptual hydrological model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Booij, Martijn J.; Krol, Martinus S.

    2010-01-01

    Three different measures to determine the optimum balance between calibration objectives are compared: the combined rank method, parameter identifiability and model validation. Four objectives (water balance, hydrograph shape, high flows, low flows) are included in each measure. The contributions of

  2. Application of SWAT to assess the effects of land use change in the Murchison Bay catchment in Uganda

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a versatile model presently used worldwide to evaluate water quality and hydrological concerns under varying land use and environmental conditions. In this study, SWAT was used to simulate streamflow and to estimate sediment yield and nutrients loss from ...

  3. Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Xuesong

    2016-11-01

    As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio_E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio_LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWAT model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT’s performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests.

  4. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean

    2017-01-01

    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e

  5. A Method to Test Model Calibration Techniques: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Judkoff, Ron; Polly, Ben; Neymark, Joel

    2016-09-01

    This paper describes a method for testing model calibration techniques. Calibration is commonly used in conjunction with energy retrofit audit models. An audit is conducted to gather information about the building needed to assemble an input file for a building energy modeling tool. A calibration technique is used to reconcile model predictions with utility data, and then the 'calibrated model' is used to predict energy savings from a variety of retrofit measures and combinations thereof. Current standards and guidelines such as BPI-2400 and ASHRAE-14 set criteria for 'goodness of fit' and assume that if the criteria are met, then the calibration technique is acceptable. While it is logical to use the actual performance data of the building to tune the model, it is not certain that a good fit will result in a model that better predicts post-retrofit energy savings. Therefore, the basic idea here is that the simulation program (intended for use with the calibration technique) is used to generate surrogate utility bill data and retrofit energy savings data against which the calibration technique can be tested. This provides three figures of merit for testing a calibration technique, 1) accuracy of the post-retrofit energy savings prediction, 2) closure on the 'true' input parameter values, and 3) goodness of fit to the utility bill data. The paper will also discuss the pros and cons of using this synthetic surrogate data approach versus trying to use real data sets of actual buildings.

  6. Improving the spatial representation of soil properties and hydrology using topographically derived initialization processes in the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Topography exerts critical controls on many hydrologic, geomorphologic, and environmental biophysical processes. Unfortunately many watershed modeling systems use topography only to define basin boundaries and stream channels and do not explicitly account for the topographic controls on processes su...

  7. Cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis of BMPs in controlling agricultural nonpoint source pollution in China based on the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Zhang, Peipei; Wang, Xiujuan; Wang, Jiawei; Yu, Wenwen; Shen, Zhenyao

    2014-12-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) have been widely used in managing agricultural nonpoint source pollution (ANSP) at the watershed level. Most BMPs are related to land use, tillage management, and fertilizer levels. In total, seven BMP scenarios (Reforest1, Reforest2, No Tillage, Contour tillage, and fertilizer level 1-4) that are related to these three factors were estimated in this study. The objectives were to investigate the effectiveness and cost-benefit of these BMPs on ANSP reduction in a large tributary of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, which are based on the simulation results of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results indicated that reforestation was the most economically efficient of all BMPs, and its net benefits were up to CNY 4.36×10(7) years(-1) (about USD 7.08×10(6) years(-1)). Regarding tillage practices, no tillage practice was more environmentally friendly than other tillage practices, and contour tillage was more economically efficient. Reducing the local fertilizer level to 0.8-fold less than that of 2010 can yield a satisfactory environmental and economic efficiency. Reforestation and fertilizer management were more effective in reducing total phosphorus (TP), whereas tillage management was more effective in reducing total nitrogen (TN). When CNY 10,000 (about USD 162) was applied to reforestation, no tillage, contour tillage, and an 0.8-fold reduction in the fertilizer level, then annual TN load can be reduced by 0.08, 0.16, 0.11, and 0.04 t and annual TP load can be reduced by 0.04, 0.02, 0.01 and 0.03 t, respectively. The cost-benefit (CB) ratios of the BMPs were as follows: reforestation (207 %) > contour tillage (129 %) > no tillage (114 %) > fertilizer management (96 and 89 %). The most economical and effective BMPs can be designated as follows: BMP1 (returning arable land with slopes greater than 25° to forests and those lands with slopes of 15-25° to orchards), BMP2 (implementing no tillage

  8. Using Active Learning for Speeding up Calibration in Simulation Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cevik, Mucahit; Ergun, Mehmet Ali; Stout, Natasha K; Trentham-Dietz, Amy; Craven, Mark; Alagoz, Oguzhan

    2016-07-01

    Most cancer simulation models include unobservable parameters that determine disease onset and tumor growth. These parameters play an important role in matching key outcomes such as cancer incidence and mortality, and their values are typically estimated via a lengthy calibration procedure, which involves evaluating a large number of combinations of parameter values via simulation. The objective of this study is to demonstrate how machine learning approaches can be used to accelerate the calibration process by reducing the number of parameter combinations that are actually evaluated. Active learning is a popular machine learning method that enables a learning algorithm such as artificial neural networks to interactively choose which parameter combinations to evaluate. We developed an active learning algorithm to expedite the calibration process. Our algorithm determines the parameter combinations that are more likely to produce desired outputs and therefore reduces the number of simulation runs performed during calibration. We demonstrate our method using the previously developed University of Wisconsin breast cancer simulation model (UWBCS). In a recent study, calibration of the UWBCS required the evaluation of 378 000 input parameter combinations to build a race-specific model, and only 69 of these combinations produced results that closely matched observed data. By using the active learning algorithm in conjunction with standard calibration methods, we identify all 69 parameter combinations by evaluating only 5620 of the 378 000 combinations. Machine learning methods hold potential in guiding model developers in the selection of more promising parameter combinations and hence speeding up the calibration process. Applying our machine learning algorithm to one model shows that evaluating only 1.49% of all parameter combinations would be sufficient for the calibration. © The Author(s) 2015.

  9. Using genetic algorithms to calibrate a water quality model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shuming; Butler, David; Brazier, Richard; Heathwaite, Louise; Khu, Soon-Thiam

    2007-03-15

    With the increasing concern over the impact of diffuse pollution on water bodies, many diffuse pollution models have been developed in the last two decades. A common obstacle in using such models is how to determine the values of the model parameters. This is especially true when a model has a large number of parameters, which makes a full range of calibration expensive in terms of computing time. Compared with conventional optimisation approaches, soft computing techniques often have a faster convergence speed and are more efficient for global optimum searches. This paper presents an attempt to calibrate a diffuse pollution model using a genetic algorithm (GA). Designed to simulate the export of phosphorus from diffuse sources (agricultural land) and point sources (human), the Phosphorus Indicators Tool (PIT) version 1.1, on which this paper is based, consisted of 78 parameters. Previous studies have indicated the difficulty of full range model calibration due to the number of parameters involved. In this paper, a GA was employed to carry out the model calibration in which all parameters were involved. A sensitivity analysis was also performed to investigate the impact of operators in the GA on its effectiveness in optimum searching. The calibration yielded satisfactory results and required reasonable computing time. The application of the PIT model to the Windrush catchment with optimum parameter values was demonstrated. The annual P loss was predicted as 4.4 kg P/ha/yr, which showed a good fitness to the observed value.

  10. Prediction of land use changes based on land change modeler and attribution of changes in the water balance of Ganga basin to land use change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anand, J.; Gosain, A. K.; Khosa, R.

    2017-12-01

    Conflicts between increasing irrigated agricultural area, commercial crops, shifting cultivation and ever increasing domestic and industrial demand has already been a cause of tension in the society over water in the Ganga River Basin, India. For the development of sustainable water resource strategies, it is essential to establish interaction between landuse changes and local hydrology through proper assessment. Precisely, seeing how change in each LULC affects hydrologic regimes, or conversely evaluating which LULC shall be appropriate for the local hydrological regime can help decision makers to incorporate in the policy instruments. In this study, we assess hydrologic regimes of the Ganga River basin with landuse change. Catchment hydrologic responses were simulated using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Meteorological data from IMD of 0.25°×0.25° spatial resolution were taken as the climate inputs. Simulated stream flow was compared at different gauge stations distributed across the Gang basin and its tributaries. Urbanization was the topmost contributor to the increase in surface runoff and water yield. While, increased irrigation demands was the dominant contributor to the water consumption and also added to the increased evapotranspiration. In addition scenarios have been generated to study the impact of landuse change on various components of hydrology including groundwater recharge, with different cropping patterns and increased irrigation efficiency to determine various mitigation strategies that can be adopted. This study can be important tool in quantifying the changes in hydrological components in response to changes made in landuse in especially basins undergoing rapid commercialization. This shall provide substantive information to the decision makers required to develop ameliorative strategies. Keywords: Landuse and Landcover change, Hydrologic model, Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), Urbanization, Ganga River, Watershed hydrology.

  11. Improving the performance of temperature index snowmelt model of SWAT by using MODIS land surface temperature data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yan; Onishi, Takeo; Hiramatsu, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Simulation results of the widely used temperature index snowmelt model are greatly influenced by input air temperature data. Spatially sparse air temperature data remain the main factor inducing uncertainties and errors in that model, which limits its applications. Thus, to solve this problem, we created new air temperature data using linear regression relationships that can be formulated based on MODIS land surface temperature data. The Soil Water Assessment Tool model, which includes an improved temperature index snowmelt module, was chosen to test the newly created data. By evaluating simulation performance for daily snowmelt in three test basins of the Amur River, performance of the newly created data was assessed. The coefficient of determination (R (2)) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used for evaluation. The results indicate that MODIS land surface temperature data can be used as a new source for air temperature data creation. This will improve snow simulation using the temperature index model in an area with sparse air temperature observations.

  12. Attribution of changes in the water balance of a tropical catchment to land use change using the SWAT model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marhaento, Hero; Booij, Martijn J.; Rientjes, T. H.M.; Hoekstra, Arjen Y.

    2017-01-01

    Changes in the water balance of the Samin catchment (277.9 km2) on Java, Indonesia, can be attributed to land use change using the Soil Water Assessment Tool model. A baseline-altered method was used in which the simulation period 1990–2013 was divided into 4 equal periods to represent baseline

  13. Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping

    2018-01-01

    Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.

  14. Revised SWAT. The integrated burnup calculation code system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Suyama, Kenya; Mochizuki, Hiroki [Department of Fuel Cycle Safety Research, Nuclear Safety Research Center, Tokai Research Establishment, Japan Atomic Energy Research Institute, Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan); Kiyosumi, Takehide [The Japan Research Institute, Ltd., Tokyo (Japan)

    2000-07-01

    SWAT is an integrated burnup code system developed for analysis of post irradiation examination, transmutation of radioactive waste, and burnup credit problem. This report shows an outline and a user's manual of revised SWAT. This revised SWAT includes expansion of functions, increasing supported machines, and correction of several bugs reported from users of previous SWAT. (author)

  15. Revised SWAT. The integrated burnup calculation code system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suyama, Kenya; Mochizuki, Hiroki; Kiyosumi, Takehide

    2000-07-01

    SWAT is an integrated burnup code system developed for analysis of post irradiation examination, transmutation of radioactive waste, and burnup credit problem. This report shows an outline and a user's manual of revised SWAT. This revised SWAT includes expansion of functions, increasing supported machines, and correction of several bugs reported from users of previous SWAT. (author)

  16. A Generic Software Framework for Data Assimilation and Model Calibration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Velzen, N.

    2010-01-01

    The accuracy of dynamic simulation models can be increased by using observations in conjunction with a data assimilation or model calibration algorithm. However, implementing such algorithms usually increases the complexity of the model software significantly. By using concepts from object oriented

  17. A mathematical model for camera calibration based on straight lines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Antonio M. G. Tommaselli

    2005-12-01

    Full Text Available In other to facilitate the automation of camera calibration process, a mathematical model using straight lines was developed, which is based on the equivalent planes mathematical model. Parameter estimation of the developed model is achieved by the Least Squares Method with Conditions and Observations. The same method of adjustment was used to implement camera calibration with bundles, which is based on points. Experiments using simulated and real data have shown that the developed model based on straight lines gives results comparable to the conventional method with points. Details concerning the mathematical development of the model and experiments with simulated and real data will be presented and the results with both methods of camera calibration, with straight lines and with points, will be compared.

  18. Rainfall estimation in SWAT: An alternative method to simulate orographic precipitation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Galván, L.; Olías, M.; Izquierdo, T.; Cerón, J. C.; Fernández de Villarán, R.

    2014-02-01

    The input of water from precipitation is one of the most important aspects of a hydrologic model because it controls the basin's water budget. The model should reproduce the amount and distribution of rainfall in the basin, spatially and temporally. SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) is one of the most widely used hydrologic models. In this paper the rainfall estimation in SWAT is revised, focusing on the treatment of orographic precipitation. SWAT was applied to the Odiel river basin (SW Spain), with a surface of 2300 km2. Results show that SWAT does not reflect reallisticaly the spatial distribution of rainfall in the basin. In relation to orographic precipitation, SWAT estimates the daily precipitation in elevation bands by adding a constant amount to the recorded precipitation in the rain gauge, which depends on the increase in precipitation with altitude and the difference between the mean elevation of each band and the elevation of the recording gauge. This does not reflect rainfall in the subbasin because the increase in precipitation with altitude actually it is not constant, but depends on the amount of rainfall. An alternative methodology to represent the temporal distribution of orographic precipitation is proposed. After simulation, the deviation of runoff volume using the SWAT elevation bands was appreciably higher than that obtained with the proposed methodology.

  19. Stochastic calibration and learning in nonstationary hydroeconomic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maneta, M. P.; Howitt, R.

    2014-05-01

    Concern about water scarcity and adverse climate events over agricultural regions has motivated a number of efforts to develop operational integrated hydroeconomic models to guide adaptation and optimal use of water. Once calibrated, these models are used for water management and analysis assuming they remain valid under future conditions. In this paper, we present and demonstrate a methodology that permits the recursive calibration of economic models of agricultural production from noisy but frequently available data. We use a standard economic calibration approach, namely positive mathematical programming, integrated in a data assimilation algorithm based on the ensemble Kalman filter equations to identify the economic model parameters. A moving average kernel ensures that new and past information on agricultural activity are blended during the calibration process, avoiding loss of information and overcalibration for the conditions of a single year. A regularization constraint akin to the standard Tikhonov regularization is included in the filter to ensure its stability even in the presence of parameters with low sensitivity to observations. The results show that the implementation of the PMP methodology within a data assimilation framework based on the enKF equations is an effective method to calibrate models of agricultural production even with noisy information. The recursive nature of the method incorporates new information as an added value to the known previous observations of agricultural activity without the need to store historical information. The robustness of the method opens the door to the use of new remote sensing algorithms for operational water management.

  20. Model calibration and beam control systems for storage rings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Corbett, W.J.; Lee, M.J.; Ziemann, V.

    1993-04-01

    Electron beam storage rings and linear accelerators are rapidly gaining worldwide popularity as scientific devices for the production of high-brightness synchrotron radiation. Today, everybody agrees that there is a premium on calibrating the storage ring model and determining errors in the machine as soon as possible after the beam is injected. In addition, the accurate optics model enables machine operators to predictably adjust key performance parameters, and allows reliable identification of new errors that occur during operation of the machine. Since the need for model calibration and beam control systems is common to all storage rings, software packages should be made that are portable between different machines. In this paper, we report on work directed toward achieving in-situ calibration of the optics model, detection of alignment errors, and orbit control techniques, with an emphasis on developing a portable system incorporating these tools

  1. The cost of uniqueness in groundwater model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Catherine; Doherty, John

    2006-04-01

    Calibration of a groundwater model requires that hydraulic properties be estimated throughout a model domain. This generally constitutes an underdetermined inverse problem, for which a solution can only be found when some kind of regularization device is included in the inversion process. Inclusion of regularization in the calibration process can be implicit, for example through the use of zones of constant parameter value, or explicit, for example through solution of a constrained minimization problem in which parameters are made to respect preferred values, or preferred relationships, to the degree necessary for a unique solution to be obtained. The "cost of uniqueness" is this: no matter which regularization methodology is employed, the inevitable consequence of its use is a loss of detail in the calibrated field. This, in turn, can lead to erroneous predictions made by a model that is ostensibly "well calibrated". Information made available as a by-product of the regularized inversion process allows the reasons for this loss of detail to be better understood. In particular, it is easily demonstrated that the estimated value for an hydraulic property at any point within a model domain is, in fact, a weighted average of the true hydraulic property over a much larger area. This averaging process causes loss of resolution in the estimated field. Where hydraulic conductivity is the hydraulic property being estimated, high averaging weights exist in areas that are strategically disposed with respect to measurement wells, while other areas may contribute very little to the estimated hydraulic conductivity at any point within the model domain, this possibly making the detection of hydraulic conductivity anomalies in these latter areas almost impossible. A study of the post-calibration parameter field covariance matrix allows further insights into the loss of system detail incurred through the calibration process to be gained. A comparison of pre- and post-calibration

  2. Bayesian calibration of power plant models for accurate performance prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boksteen, Sowande Z.; Buijtenen, Jos P. van; Pecnik, Rene; Vecht, Dick van der

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • Bayesian calibration is applied to power plant performance prediction. • Measurements from a plant in operation are used for model calibration. • A gas turbine performance model and steam cycle model are calibrated. • An integrated plant model is derived. • Part load efficiency is accurately predicted as a function of ambient conditions. - Abstract: Gas turbine combined cycles are expected to play an increasingly important role in the balancing of supply and demand in future energy markets. Thermodynamic modeling of these energy systems is frequently applied to assist in decision making processes related to the management of plant operation and maintenance. In most cases, model inputs, parameters and outputs are treated as deterministic quantities and plant operators make decisions with limited or no regard of uncertainties. As the steady integration of wind and solar energy into the energy market induces extra uncertainties, part load operation and reliability are becoming increasingly important. In the current study, methods are proposed to not only quantify various types of uncertainties in measurements and plant model parameters using measured data, but to also assess their effect on various aspects of performance prediction. The authors aim to account for model parameter and measurement uncertainty, and for systematic discrepancy of models with respect to reality. For this purpose, the Bayesian calibration framework of Kennedy and O’Hagan is used, which is especially suitable for high-dimensional industrial problems. The article derives a calibrated model of the plant efficiency as a function of ambient conditions and operational parameters, which is also accurate in part load. The article shows that complete statistical modeling of power plants not only enhances process models, but can also increases confidence in operational decisions

  3. Calibration and Confirmation in Geophysical Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Werndl, Charlotte

    2016-04-01

    For policy decisions the best geophysical models are needed. To evaluate geophysical models, it is essential that the best available methods for confirmation are used. A hotly debated issue on confirmation in climate science (as well as in philosophy) is the requirement of use-novelty (i.e. that data can only confirm models if they have not already been used before. This talk investigates the issue of use-novelty and double-counting for geophysical models. We will see that the conclusions depend on the framework of confirmation and that it is not clear that use-novelty is a valid requirement and that double-counting is illegitimate.

  4. Applying Hierarchical Model Calibration to Automatically Generated Items.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williamson, David M.; Johnson, Matthew S.; Sinharay, Sandip; Bejar, Isaac I.

    This study explored the application of hierarchical model calibration as a means of reducing, if not eliminating, the need for pretesting of automatically generated items from a common item model prior to operational use. Ultimately the successful development of automatic item generation (AIG) systems capable of producing items with highly similar…

  5. Cloud-Based Model Calibration Using OpenStudio: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hale, E.; Lisell, L.; Goldwasser, D.; Macumber, D.; Dean, J.; Metzger, I.; Parker, A.; Long, N.; Ball, B.; Schott, M.; Weaver, E.; Brackney, L.

    2014-03-01

    OpenStudio is a free, open source Software Development Kit (SDK) and application suite for performing building energy modeling and analysis. The OpenStudio Parametric Analysis Tool has been extended to allow cloud-based simulation of multiple OpenStudio models parametrically related to a baseline model. This paper describes the new cloud-based simulation functionality and presents a model cali-bration case study. Calibration is initiated by entering actual monthly utility bill data into the baseline model. Multiple parameters are then varied over multiple iterations to reduce the difference between actual energy consumption and model simulation results, as calculated and visualized by billing period and by fuel type. Simulations are per-formed in parallel using the Amazon Elastic Cloud service. This paper highlights model parameterizations (measures) used for calibration, but the same multi-nodal computing architecture is available for other purposes, for example, recommending combinations of retrofit energy saving measures using the calibrated model as the new baseline.

  6. Calibrating cellular automaton models for pedestrians walking through corners

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dias, Charitha; Lovreglio, Ruggiero

    2018-05-01

    Cellular Automata (CA) based pedestrian simulation models have gained remarkable popularity as they are simpler and easier to implement compared to other microscopic modeling approaches. However, incorporating traditional floor field representations in CA models to simulate pedestrian corner navigation behavior could result in unrealistic behaviors. Even though several previous studies have attempted to enhance CA models to realistically simulate pedestrian maneuvers around bends, such modifications have not been calibrated or validated against empirical data. In this study, two static floor field (SFF) representations, namely 'discrete representation' and 'continuous representation', are calibrated for CA-models to represent pedestrians' walking behavior around 90° bends. Trajectory data collected through a controlled experiment are used to calibrate these model representations. Calibration results indicate that although both floor field representations can represent pedestrians' corner navigation behavior, the 'continuous' representation fits the data better. Output of this study could be beneficial for enhancing the reliability of existing CA-based models by representing pedestrians' corner navigation behaviors more realistically.

  7. A single model procedure for tank calibration function estimation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    York, J.C.; Liebetrau, A.M.

    1995-01-01

    Reliable tank calibrations are a vital component of any measurement control and accountability program for bulk materials in a nuclear reprocessing facility. Tank volume calibration functions used in nuclear materials safeguards and accountability programs are typically constructed from several segments, each of which is estimated independently. Ideally, the segments correspond to structural features in the tank. In this paper the authors use an extension of the Thomas-Liebetrau model to estimate the entire calibration function in a single step. This procedure automatically takes significant run-to-run differences into account and yields an estimate of the entire calibration function in one operation. As with other procedures, the first step is to define suitable calibration segments. Next, a polynomial of low degree is specified for each segment. In contrast with the conventional practice of constructing a separate model for each segment, this information is used to set up the design matrix for a single model that encompasses all of the calibration data. Estimation of the model parameters is then done using conventional statistical methods. The method described here has several advantages over traditional methods. First, modeled run-to-run differences can be taken into account automatically at the estimation step. Second, no interpolation is required between successive segments. Third, variance estimates are based on all the data, rather than that from a single segment, with the result that discontinuities in confidence intervals at segment boundaries are eliminated. Fourth, the restrictive assumption of the Thomas-Liebetrau method, that the measured volumes be the same for all runs, is not required. Finally, the proposed methods are readily implemented using standard statistical procedures and widely-used software packages

  8. MT3DMS: Model use, calibration, and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, C.; Hill, Mary C.; Cao, G.; Ma, R.

    2012-01-01

    MT3DMS is a three-dimensional multi-species solute transport model for solving advection, dispersion, and chemical reactions of contaminants in saturated groundwater flow systems. MT3DMS interfaces directly with the U.S. Geological Survey finite-difference groundwater flow model MODFLOW for the flow solution and supports the hydrologic and discretization features of MODFLOW. MT3DMS contains multiple transport solution techniques in one code, which can often be important, including in model calibration. Since its first release in 1990 as MT3D for single-species mass transport modeling, MT3DMS has been widely used in research projects and practical field applications. This article provides a brief introduction to MT3DMS and presents recommendations about calibration and validation procedures for field applications of MT3DMS. The examples presented suggest the need to consider alternative processes as models are calibrated and suggest opportunities and difficulties associated with using groundwater age in transport model calibration.

  9. Effect of Using Extreme Years in Hydrologic Model Calibration Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goktas, R. K.; Tezel, U.; Kargi, P. G.; Ayvaz, T.; Tezyapar, I.; Mesta, B.; Kentel, E.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrological models are useful in predicting and developing management strategies for controlling the system behaviour. Specifically they can be used for evaluating streamflow at ungaged catchments, effect of climate change, best management practices on water resources, or identification of pollution sources in a watershed. This study is a part of a TUBITAK project named "Development of a geographical information system based decision-making tool for water quality management of Ergene Watershed using pollutant fingerprints". Within the scope of this project, first water resources in Ergene Watershed is studied. Streamgages found in the basin are identified and daily streamflow measurements are obtained from State Hydraulic Works of Turkey. Streamflow data is analysed using box-whisker plots, hydrographs and flow-duration curves focusing on identification of extreme periods, dry or wet. Then a hydrological model is developed for Ergene Watershed using HEC-HMS in the Watershed Modeling System (WMS) environment. The model is calibrated for various time periods including dry and wet ones and the performance of calibration is evaluated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE), correlation coefficient, percent bias (PBIAS) and root mean square error. It is observed that calibration period affects the model performance, and the main purpose of the development of the hydrological model should guide calibration period selection. Acknowledgement: This study is funded by The Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK) under Project Number 115Y064.

  10. Calibration of a stochastic health evolution model using NHIS data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Aparna; Li, Zhisheng

    2011-10-01

    This paper presents and calibrates an individual's stochastic health evolution model. In this health evolution model, the uncertainty of health incidents is described by a stochastic process with a finite number of possible outcomes. We construct a comprehensive health status index (HSI) to describe an individual's health status, as well as a health risk factor system (RFS) to classify individuals into different risk groups. Based on the maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method and the method of nonlinear least squares fitting, model calibration is formulated in terms of two mixed-integer nonlinear optimization problems. Using the National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) data, the model is calibrated for specific risk groups. Longitudinal data from the Health and Retirement Study (HRS) is used to validate the calibrated model, which displays good validation properties. The end goal of this paper is to provide a model and methodology, whose output can serve as a crucial component of decision support for strategic planning of health related financing and risk management.

  11. Optical model and calibration of a sun tracker

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkov, Sergei N.; Samokhvalov, Ignatii V.; Cheong, Hai Du; Kim, Dukhyeon

    2016-01-01

    Sun trackers are widely used to investigate scattering and absorption of solar radiation in the Earth's atmosphere. We present a method for optimization of the optical altazimuth sun tracker model with output radiation direction aligned with the axis of a stationary spectrometer. The method solves the problem of stability loss in tracker pointing at the Sun near the zenith. An optimal method for tracker calibration at the measurement site is proposed in the present work. A method of moving calibration is suggested for mobile applications in the presence of large temperature differences and errors in the alignment of the optical system of the tracker. - Highlights: • We present an optimal optical sun tracker model for atmospheric spectroscopy. • The problem of loss of stability of tracker pointing at the Sun has been solved. • We propose an optimal method for tracker calibration at a measurement site. • Test results demonstrate the efficiency of the proposed optimization methods.

  12. Bayesian calibration of the Community Land Model using surrogates

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ray, Jaideep; Hou, Zhangshuan; Huang, Maoyi; Swiler, Laura Painton

    2014-02-01

    We present results from the Bayesian calibration of hydrological parameters of the Community Land Model (CLM), which is often used in climate simulations and Earth system models. A statistical inverse problem is formulated for three hydrological parameters, conditional on observations of latent heat surface fluxes over 48 months. Our calibration method uses polynomial and Gaussian process surrogates of the CLM, and solves the parameter estimation problem using a Markov chain Monte Carlo sampler. Posterior probability densities for the parameters are developed for two sites with different soil and vegetation covers. Our method also allows us to examine the structural error in CLM under two error models. We find that surrogate models can be created for CLM in most cases. The posterior distributions are more predictive than the default parameter values in CLM. Climatologically averaging the observations does not modify the parameters' distributions significantly. The structural error model reveals a correlation time-scale which can be used to identify the physical process that could be contributing to it. While the calibrated CLM has a higher predictive skill, the calibration is under-dispersive.

  13. Calibration of hydrological models using flow-duration curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. K. Westerberg

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available The degree of belief we have in predictions from hydrologic models will normally depend on how well they can reproduce observations. Calibrations with traditional performance measures, such as the Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency, are challenged by problems including: (1 uncertain discharge data, (2 variable sensitivity of different performance measures to different flow magnitudes, (3 influence of unknown input/output errors and (4 inability to evaluate model performance when observation time periods for discharge and model input data do not overlap. This paper explores a calibration method using flow-duration curves (FDCs to address these problems. The method focuses on reproducing the observed discharge frequency distribution rather than the exact hydrograph. It consists of applying limits of acceptability for selected evaluation points (EPs on the observed uncertain FDC in the extended GLUE approach. Two ways of selecting the EPs were tested – based on equal intervals of discharge and of volume of water. The method was tested and compared to a calibration using the traditional model efficiency for the daily four-parameter WASMOD model in the Paso La Ceiba catchment in Honduras and for Dynamic TOPMODEL evaluated at an hourly time scale for the Brue catchment in Great Britain. The volume method of selecting EPs gave the best results in both catchments with better calibrated slow flow, recession and evaporation than the other criteria. Observed and simulated time series of uncertain discharges agreed better for this method both in calibration and prediction in both catchments. An advantage with the method is that the rejection criterion is based on an estimation of the uncertainty in discharge data and that the EPs of the FDC can be chosen to reflect the aims of the modelling application, e.g. using more/less EPs at high/low flows. While the method appears less sensitive to epistemic input/output errors than previous use of limits of

  14. Calibration of Automatically Generated Items Using Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Matthew S.; Sinharay, Sandip

    For complex educational assessments, there is an increasing use of "item families," which are groups of related items. However, calibration or scoring for such an assessment requires fitting models that take into account the dependence structure inherent among the items that belong to the same item family. C. Glas and W. van der Linden…

  15. LED-based Photometric Stereo: Modeling, Calibration and Numerical Solutions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Quéau, Yvain; Durix, Bastien; Wu, Tao

    2018-01-01

    We conduct a thorough study of photometric stereo under nearby point light source illumination, from modeling to numerical solution, through calibration. In the classical formulation of photometric stereo, the luminous fluxes are assumed to be directional, which is very difficult to achieve in pr...

  16. Calibration of a Plastic Classification System with the Ccw Model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barcala Riveira, J. M.; Fernandez Marron, J. L.; Alberdi Primicia, J.; Navarrete Marin, J. J.; Oller Gonzalez, J. C.

    2003-01-01

    This document describes the calibration of a plastic Classification system with the Ccw model (Classification by Quantum's built with Wavelet Coefficients). The method is applied to spectra of plastics usually present in domestic wastes. Obtained results are showed. (Author) 16 refs

  17. Technical Note: Calibration and validation of geophysical observation models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Salama, M.S.; van der Velde, R.; van der Woerd, H.J.; Kromkamp, J.C.; Philippart, C.J.M.; Joseph, A.T.; O'Neill, P.E.; Lang, R.H.; Gish, T.; Werdell, P.J.; Su, Z.

    2012-01-01

    We present a method to calibrate and validate observational models that interrelate remotely sensed energy fluxes to geophysical variables of land and water surfaces. Coincident sets of remote sensing observation of visible and microwave radiations and geophysical data are assembled and subdivided

  18. SWAT4.0 - The integrated burnup code system driving continuous energy Monte Carlo codes MVP, MCNP and deterministic calculation code SRAC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kashima, Takao; Suyama, Kenya; Takada, Tomoyuki

    2015-03-01

    There have been two versions of SWAT depending on details of its development history: the revised SWAT that uses the deterministic calculation code SRAC as a neutron transportation solver, and the SWAT3.1 that uses the continuous energy Monte Carlo code MVP or MCNP5 for the same purpose. It takes several hours, however, to execute one calculation by the continuous energy Monte Carlo code even on the super computer of the Japan Atomic Energy Agency. Moreover, two-dimensional burnup calculation is not practical using the revised SWAT because it has problems on production of effective cross section data and applying them to arbitrary fuel geometry when a calculation model has multiple burnup zones. Therefore, SWAT4.0 has been developed by adding, to SWAT3.1, a function to utilize the deterministic code SARC2006, which has shorter calculation time, as an outer module of neutron transportation solver for burnup calculation. SWAT4.0 has been enabled to execute two-dimensional burnup calculation by providing an input data template of SRAC2006 to SWAT4.0 input data, and updating atomic number densities of burnup zones in each burnup step. This report describes outline, input data instruction, and examples of calculations of SWAT4.0. (author)

  19. Evaluation of multivariate calibration models transferred between spectroscopic instruments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Eskildsen, Carl Emil Aae; Hansen, Per W.; Skov, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    In a setting where multiple spectroscopic instruments are used for the same measurements it may be convenient to develop the calibration model on a single instrument and then transfer this model to the other instruments. In the ideal scenario, all instruments provide the same predictions for the ......In a setting where multiple spectroscopic instruments are used for the same measurements it may be convenient to develop the calibration model on a single instrument and then transfer this model to the other instruments. In the ideal scenario, all instruments provide the same predictions...... for the same samples using the transferred model. However, sometimes the success of a model transfer is evaluated by comparing the transferred model predictions with the reference values. This is not optimal, as uncertainties in the reference method will impact the evaluation. This paper proposes a new method...... for calibration model transfer evaluation. The new method is based on comparing predictions from different instruments, rather than comparing predictions and reference values. A total of 75 flour samples were available for the study. All samples were measured on ten near infrared (NIR) instruments from two...

  20. Integrated burnup calculation code system SWAT

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Suyama, Kenya; Hirakawa, Naohiro; Iwasaki, Tomohiko.

    1997-11-01

    SWAT is an integrated burnup code system developed for analysis of post irradiation examination, transmutation of radioactive waste, and burnup credit problem. It enables us to analyze the burnup problem using neutron spectrum depending on environment of irradiation, combining SRAC which is Japanese standard thermal reactor analysis code system and ORIGEN2 which is burnup code widely used all over the world. SWAT makes effective cross section library based on results by SRAC, and performs the burnup analysis with ORIGEN2 using that library. SRAC and ORIGEN2 can be called as external module. SWAT has original cross section library on based JENDL-3.2 and libraries of fission yield and decay data prepared from JNDC FP Library second version. Using these libraries, user can use latest data in the calculation of SWAT besides the effective cross section prepared by SRAC. Also, User can make original ORIGEN2 library using the output file of SWAT. This report presents concept and user's manual of SWAT. (author)

  1. Calibration and verification of numerical runoff and erosion model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gabrić Ognjen

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the field and laboratory measurements, and analogous with development of computational techniques, runoff and erosion models based on equations which describe the physics of the process are also developed. Based on the KINEROS2 model, this paper presents basic modelling principles of runoff and erosion processes based on the St. Venant's equations. Alternative equations for friction calculation, calculation of source and deposition elements and transport capacity are also shown. Numerical models based on original and alternative equations are calibrated and verified on laboratory scale model. According to the results, friction calculation based on the analytic solution of laminar flow must be included in all runoff and erosion models.

  2. An Expectation-Maximization Method for Calibrating Synchronous Machine Models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meng, Da; Zhou, Ning; Lu, Shuai; Lin, Guang

    2013-07-21

    The accuracy of a power system dynamic model is essential to its secure and efficient operation. Lower confidence in model accuracy usually leads to conservative operation and lowers asset usage. To improve model accuracy, this paper proposes an expectation-maximization (EM) method to calibrate the synchronous machine model using phasor measurement unit (PMU) data. First, an extended Kalman filter (EKF) is applied to estimate the dynamic states using measurement data. Then, the parameters are calculated based on the estimated states using maximum likelihood estimation (MLE) method. The EM method iterates over the preceding two steps to improve estimation accuracy. The proposed EM method’s performance is evaluated using a single-machine infinite bus system and compared with a method where both state and parameters are estimated using an EKF method. Sensitivity studies of the parameter calibration using EM method are also presented to show the robustness of the proposed method for different levels of measurement noise and initial parameter uncertainty.

  3. Calibration of a Chemistry Test Using the Rasch Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nancy Coromoto Martín Guaregua

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The Rasch model was used to calibrate a general chemistry test for the purpose of analyzing the advantages and information the model provides. The sample was composed of 219 college freshmen. Of the 12 questions used, good fit was achieved in 10. The evaluation shows that although there are items of variable difficulty, there are gaps on the scale; in order to make the test complete, it will be necessary to design new items to fill in these gaps.

  4. Stochastic isotropic hyperelastic materials: constitutive calibration and model selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mihai, L. Angela; Woolley, Thomas E.; Goriely, Alain

    2018-03-01

    Biological and synthetic materials often exhibit intrinsic variability in their elastic responses under large strains, owing to microstructural inhomogeneity or when elastic data are extracted from viscoelastic mechanical tests. For these materials, although hyperelastic models calibrated to mean data are useful, stochastic representations accounting also for data dispersion carry extra information about the variability of material properties found in practical applications. We combine finite elasticity and information theories to construct homogeneous isotropic hyperelastic models with random field parameters calibrated to discrete mean values and standard deviations of either the stress-strain function or the nonlinear shear modulus, which is a function of the deformation, estimated from experimental tests. These quantities can take on different values, corresponding to possible outcomes of the experiments. As multiple models can be derived that adequately represent the observed phenomena, we apply Occam's razor by providing an explicit criterion for model selection based on Bayesian statistics. We then employ this criterion to select a model among competing models calibrated to experimental data for rubber and brain tissue under single or multiaxial loads.

  5. Analysis of climate change impact on runoff and sediment delivery in a Great Lake watershed using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verma, S.; Bhattarai, R.; Cooke, R.

    2011-12-01

    simulation model which operates on a daily time step. The model is physically based, computationally efficient, and capable of assessing the impact of climate and watershed management on water, sediment, and nutrient/chemical yields. SWAT model has been calibrated for flow and sediment yield from 1982 to 2002 for the watershed. The calibrated model will be used to predict future flow and sediment delivery scenarios due to climate change (increase in temperature).

  6. Calibration of two complex ecosystem models with different likelihood functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hidy, Dóra; Haszpra, László; Pintér, Krisztina; Nagy, Zoltán; Barcza, Zoltán

    2014-05-01

    The biosphere is a sensitive carbon reservoir. Terrestrial ecosystems were approximately carbon neutral during the past centuries, but they became net carbon sinks due to climate change induced environmental change and associated CO2 fertilization effect of the atmosphere. Model studies and measurements indicate that the biospheric carbon sink can saturate in the future due to ongoing climate change which can act as a positive feedback. Robustness of carbon cycle models is a key issue when trying to choose the appropriate model for decision support. The input parameters of the process-based models are decisive regarding the model output. At the same time there are several input parameters for which accurate values are hard to obtain directly from experiments or no local measurements are available. Due to the uncertainty associated with the unknown model parameters significant bias can be experienced if the model is used to simulate the carbon and nitrogen cycle components of different ecosystems. In order to improve model performance the unknown model parameters has to be estimated. We developed a multi-objective, two-step calibration method based on Bayesian approach in order to estimate the unknown parameters of PaSim and Biome-BGC models. Biome-BGC and PaSim are a widely used biogeochemical models that simulate the storage and flux of water, carbon, and nitrogen between the ecosystem and the atmosphere, and within the components of the terrestrial ecosystems (in this research the developed version of Biome-BGC is used which is referred as BBGC MuSo). Both models were calibrated regardless the simulated processes and type of model parameters. The calibration procedure is based on the comparison of measured data with simulated results via calculating a likelihood function (degree of goodness-of-fit between simulated and measured data). In our research different likelihood function formulations were used in order to examine the effect of the different model

  7. Calibrating corneal material model parameters using only inflation data: an ill-posed problem

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Kok, S

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available is to perform numerical modelling using the finite element method, for which a calibrated material model is required. These material models are typically calibrated using experimental inflation data by solving an inverse problem. In the inverse problem...

  8. Calibration process of highly parameterized semi-distributed hydrological model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vidmar, Andrej; Brilly, Mitja

    2017-04-01

    Hydrological phenomena take place in the hydrological system, which is governed by nature, and are essentially stochastic. These phenomena are unique, non-recurring, and changeable across space and time. Since any river basin with its own natural characteristics and any hydrological event therein, are unique, this is a complex process that is not researched enough. Calibration is a procedure of determining the parameters of a model that are not known well enough. Input and output variables and mathematical model expressions are known, while only some parameters are unknown, which are determined by calibrating the model. The software used for hydrological modelling nowadays is equipped with sophisticated algorithms for calibration purposes without possibility to manage process by modeler. The results are not the best. We develop procedure for expert driven process of calibration. We use HBV-light-CLI hydrological model which has command line interface and coupling it with PEST. PEST is parameter estimation tool which is used widely in ground water modeling and can be used also on surface waters. Process of calibration managed by expert directly, and proportionally to the expert knowledge, affects the outcome of the inversion procedure and achieves better results than if the procedure had been left to the selected optimization algorithm. First step is to properly define spatial characteristic and structural design of semi-distributed model including all morphological and hydrological phenomena, like karstic area, alluvial area and forest area. This step includes and requires geological, meteorological, hydraulic and hydrological knowledge of modeler. Second step is to set initial parameter values at their preferred values based on expert knowledge. In this step we also define all parameter and observation groups. Peak data are essential in process of calibration if we are mainly interested in flood events. Each Sub Catchment in the model has own observations group

  9. Impact assessment of salt iodization on the prevalence of goiter in district Swat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Akhtar, J.; Zahoor-Ullah; Paracha, P.I.; Lutfullah, G.

    2004-01-01

    Background: To eliminate Iodine Deficiency Disorders, (IDD) universal salt iodization is the widely practiced intervention. District Swat (a hilly area of NWFP, highly endemic for IDDs is selected as a first model district of the province for salt iodization program. Objectives: To find out the proportion of the families using iodized salt, iodine contents of the salts used by the families, urinary iodine levels in school children and the effect on goiter prevalence in Swat selected as a model district in 1998. Subject and Methods: The study was conducted in 960 children of both sexes, age 8-10 years in primary schools of district Swat in the year 2000. A replicate model used for base line study in 1998 was adopted. The students were clinically examined for goiter using palpation method. 960 edible salt samples for its iodine content and 240 urine samples for iodine level were analysed. Results: The overall goiter prevalence was found to be 52 and 45% in boys and girls respectively. 23% salt samples were found un-iodized, while in 25.6% the iodine content was less than 7ppm. The results revealed 18% decrease in total goiter rate and 35% increase in the use of iodized salt from the base line survey conducted in 1998, in school children of district Swat. Conclusions: The study revealed that since the area of Swat is still highly endemic for Iodine Deficiency Disorders, sustained efforts are required to ensure 100% salt iodization. (author)

  10. Bayesian model calibration of ramp compression experiments on Z

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Justin; Hund, Lauren

    2017-06-01

    Bayesian model calibration (BMC) is a statistical framework to estimate inputs for a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties, making it well suited to dynamic experiments which must be coupled with numerical simulations to interpret the results. Often, dynamic experiments are diagnosed using velocimetry and this output can be modeled using a hydrocode. Several calibration issues unique to this type of scenario including the functional nature of the output, uncertainty of nuisance parameters within the simulation, and model discrepancy identifiability are addressed, and a novel BMC process is proposed. As a proof of concept, we examine experiments conducted on Sandia National Laboratories' Z-machine which ramp compressed tantalum to peak stresses of 250 GPa. The proposed BMC framework is used to calibrate the cold curve of Ta (with uncertainty), and we conclude that the procedure results in simple, fast, and valid inferences. Sandia National Laboratories is a multi-mission laboratory managed and operated by Sandia Corporation, a wholly owned subsidiary of Lockheed Martin Corporation, for the U.S. Department of Energy's National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-AC04-94AL85000.

  11. Calibrating Vadose Zone Models with Time-Lapse Gravity Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christiansen, Lars; Hansen, A. B.; Looms, M. C.

    2009-01-01

    A change in soil water content is a change in mass stored in the subsurface. Given that the mass change is big enough, the change can be measured with a gravity meter. Attempts have been made with varying success over the last decades to use ground-based time-lapse gravity measurements to infer...... hydrogeological parameters. These studies focused on the saturated zone with specific yield as the most prominent target parameter. Any change in storage in the vadose zone has been considered as noise. Our modeling results show a measureable change in gravity from the vadose zone during a forced infiltration...... experiment on 10m by 10m grass land. Simulation studies show a potential for vadose zone model calibration using gravity data in conjunction with other geophysical data, e.g. cross-borehole georadar. We present early field data and calibration results from a forced infiltration experiment conducted over 30...

  12. A new sewage exfiltration model--parameters and calibration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karpf, Christian; Krebs, Peter

    2011-01-01

    Exfiltration of waste water from sewer systems represents a potential danger for the soil and the aquifer. Common models, which are used to describe the exfiltration process, are based on the law of Darcy, extended by a more or less detailed consideration of the expansion of leaks, the characteristics of the soil and the colmation layer. But, due to the complexity of the exfiltration process, the calibration of these models includes a significant uncertainty. In this paper, a new exfiltration approach is introduced, which implements the dynamics of the clogging process and the structural conditions near sewer leaks. The calibration is realised according to experimental studies and analysis of groundwater infiltration to sewers. Furthermore, exfiltration rates and the sensitivity of the approach are estimated and evaluated, respectively, by Monte-Carlo simulations.

  13. Predicting fecal coliform using the interval-to-interval approach and SWAT in the Miyun watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bai, Jianwen; Shen, Zhenyao; Yan, Tiezhu; Qiu, Jiali; Li, Yangyang

    2017-06-01

    Pathogens in manure can cause waterborne-disease outbreaks, serious illness, and even death in humans. Therefore, information about the transformation and transport of bacteria is crucial for determining their source. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to simulate fecal coliform bacteria load in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China. The data for the fecal coliform were obtained at three sampling sites, Chenying (CY), Gubeikou (GBK), and Xiahui (XH). The calibration processes of the fecal coliform were conducted using the CY and GBK sites, and validation was conducted at the XH site. An interval-to-interval approach was designed and incorporated into the processes of fecal coliform calibration and validation. The 95% confidence interval of the predicted values and the 95% confidence interval of measured values were considered during calibration and validation in the interval-to-interval approach. Compared with the traditional point-to-point comparison, this method can improve simulation accuracy. The results indicated that the simulation of fecal coliform using the interval-to-interval approach was reasonable for the watershed. This method could provide a new research direction for future model calibration and validation studies.

  14. Spatial and Temporal Self-Calibration of a Hydroeconomic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howitt, R. E.; Hansen, K. M.

    2008-12-01

    Hydroeconomic modeling of water systems where risk and reliability of water supply are of critical importance must address explicitly how to model water supply uncertainty. When large fluctuations in annual precipitation and significant variation in flows by location are present, a model which solves with perfect foresight of future water conditions may be inappropriate for some policy and research questions. We construct a simulation-optimization model with limited foresight of future water conditions using positive mathematical programming and self-calibration techniques. This limited foresight netflow (LFN) model signals the value of storing water for future use and reflects a more accurate economic value of water at key locations, given that future water conditions are unknown. Failure to explicitly model this uncertainty could lead to undervaluation of storage infrastructure and contractual mechanisms for managing water supply risk. A model based on sequentially updated information is more realistic, since water managers make annual storage decisions without knowledge of yet to be realized future water conditions. The LFN model runs historical hydrological conditions through the current configuration of the California water system to determine the economically efficient allocation of water under current economic conditions and infrastructure. The model utilizes current urban and agricultural demands, storage and conveyance infrastructure, and the state's hydrological history to indicate the scarcity value of water at key locations within the state. Further, the temporal calibration penalty functions vary by year type, reflecting agricultural water users' ability to alter cropping patterns in response to water conditions. The model employs techniques from positive mathematical programming (Howitt, 1995; Howitt, 1998; Cai and Wang, 2006) to generate penalty functions that are applied to deviations from observed data. The functions are applied to monthly flows

  15. Investigation of the transferability of hydrological models and a method to improve model calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Hartmann

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to find a model parameterization such that the hydrological model performs well even under different conditions, appropriate model performance measures have to be determined. A common performance measure is the Nash Sutcliffe efficiency. Usually it is calculated comparing observed and modelled daily values. In this paper a modified version is suggested in order to calibrate a model on different time scales simultaneously (days up to years. A spatially distributed hydrological model based on HBV concept was used. The modelling was applied on the Upper Neckar catchment, a mesoscale river in south western Germany with a basin size of about 4000 km2. The observation period 1961-1990 was divided into four different climatic periods, referred to as "warm", "cold", "wet" and "dry". These sub periods were used to assess the transferability of the model calibration and of the measure of performance. In a first step, the hydrological model was calibrated on a certain period and afterwards applied on the same period. Then, a validation was performed on the climatologically opposite period than the calibration, e.g. the model calibrated on the cold period was applied on the warm period. Optimal parameter sets were identified by an automatic calibration procedure based on Simulated Annealing. The results show, that calibrating a hydrological model that is supposed to handle short as well as long term signals becomes an important task. Especially the objective function has to be chosen very carefully.

  16. Model- and calibration-independent test of cosmic acceleration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seikel, Marina; Schwarz, Dominik J.

    2009-01-01

    We present a calibration-independent test of the accelerated expansion of the universe using supernova type Ia data. The test is also model-independent in the sense that no assumptions about the content of the universe or about the parameterization of the deceleration parameter are made and that it does not assume any dynamical equations of motion. Yet, the test assumes the universe and the distribution of supernovae to be statistically homogeneous and isotropic. A significant reduction of systematic effects, as compared to our previous, calibration-dependent test, is achieved. Accelerated expansion is detected at significant level (4.3σ in the 2007 Gold sample, 7.2σ in the 2008 Union sample) if the universe is spatially flat. This result depends, however, crucially on supernovae with a redshift smaller than 0.1, for which the assumption of statistical isotropy and homogeneity is less well established

  17. Technical note: Bayesian calibration of dynamic ruminant nutrition models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reed, K F; Arhonditsis, G B; France, J; Kebreab, E

    2016-08-01

    Mechanistic models of ruminant digestion and metabolism have advanced our understanding of the processes underlying ruminant animal physiology. Deterministic modeling practices ignore the inherent variation within and among individual animals and thus have no way to assess how sources of error influence model outputs. We introduce Bayesian calibration of mathematical models to address the need for robust mechanistic modeling tools that can accommodate error analysis by remaining within the bounds of data-based parameter estimation. For the purpose of prediction, the Bayesian approach generates a posterior predictive distribution that represents the current estimate of the value of the response variable, taking into account both the uncertainty about the parameters and model residual variability. Predictions are expressed as probability distributions, thereby conveying significantly more information than point estimates in regard to uncertainty. Our study illustrates some of the technical advantages of Bayesian calibration and discusses the future perspectives in the context of animal nutrition modeling. Copyright © 2016 American Dairy Science Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Hydrological Responses of Climate and Land Use/Cover Changes in Tao'er River Basin Based on the SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, J.; Kou, L.

    2015-12-01

    Abstract: The changes of both climate and land use/cover have some impact on the water resources. For Tao'er River Basin, these changes have a direct impact on the land use pattern adjustment, wetland protection, connection project between rivers and reservoirs, local social and economic development, etc. Therefore, studying the impact of climate and land use/cover changes is of great practical significance. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is used as the research method. With historical actual measured runoff data and the yearly land use classification caught by satellite remote sensing maps, analyze the impact of climate change on the runoff of Tao'er River. And according to the land use/cover classification of 1990, 2000 and 2010, analyze the land use/cover change in the recent 30 years, the impact of the land use/cover change on the river runoff and the contribution coefficient of farmland, woodland, grassland and other major land-use types to the runoff. These studies can provide some references to the rational allocation of water resource and adjustment of land use structure in this area.

  19. CALIBRATION OF DISTRIBUTED SHALLOW LANDSLIDE MODELS IN FORESTED LANDSCAPES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gian Battista Bischetti

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available In mountainous-forested soil mantled landscapes all around the world, rainfall-induced shallow landslides are one of the most common hydro-geomorphic hazards, which frequently impact the environment and human lives and properties. In order to produce shallow landslide susceptibility maps, several models have been proposed in the last decade, combining simplified steady state topography- based hydrological models with the infinite slope scheme, in a GIS framework. In the present paper, two of the still open issues are investigated: the assessment of the validity of slope stability models and the inclusion of root cohesion values. In such a perspective the “Stability INdex MAPping” has been applied to a small forested pre-Alpine catchment, adopting different calibrating approaches and target indexes. The Single and the Multiple Calibration Regions modality and three quantitative target indexes – the common Success Rate (SR, the Modified Success Rate (MSR, and a Weighted Modified Success Rate (WMSR herein introduced – are considered. The results obtained show that the target index can 34 003_Bischetti(569_23 1-12-2010 9:48 Pagina 34 significantly affect the values of a model’s parameters and lead to different proportions of stable/unstable areas, both for the Single and the Multiple Calibration Regions approach. The use of SR as the target index leads to an over-prediction of the unstable areas, whereas the use of MSR and WMSR, seems to allow a better discrimination between stable and unstable areas. The Multiple Calibration Regions approach should be preferred, using information on space distribution of vegetation to define the Regions. The use of field-based estimation of root cohesion and sliding depth allows the implementation of slope stability models (SINMAP in our case also without the data needed for calibration. To maximize the inclusion of such parameters into SINMAP, however, the assumption of a uniform distribution of

  20. A Linear Viscoelastic Model Calibration of Sylgard 184.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Long, Kevin Nicholas; Brown, Judith Alice

    2017-04-01

    We calibrate a linear thermoviscoelastic model for solid Sylgard 184 (90-10 formulation), a lightly cross-linked, highly flexible isotropic elastomer for use both in Sierra / Solid Mechanics via the Universal Polymer Model as well as in Sierra / Structural Dynamics (Salinas) for use as an isotropic viscoelastic material. Material inputs for the calibration in both codes are provided. The frequency domain master curve of oscillatory shear was obtained from a report from Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). However, because the form of that data is different from the constitutive models in Sierra, we also present the mapping of the LANL data onto Sandia’s constitutive models. Finally, blind predictions of cyclic tension and compression out to moderate strains of 40 and 20% respectively are compared with Sandia’s legacy cure schedule material. Although the strain rate of the data is unknown, the linear thermoviscoelastic model accurately predicts the experiments out to moderate strains for the slower strain rates, which is consistent with the expectation that quasistatic test procedures were likely followed. This good agreement comes despite the different cure schedules between the Sandia and LANL data.

  1. Evaluation of an ASM1 Model Calibration Precedure on a Municipal-Industrial Wastewater Treatment Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Britta; Gernaey, Krist; Henze, Mogens

    2002-01-01

    treatment plant. In the case that was studied it was important to have a detailed description of the process dynamics, since the model was to be used as the basis for optimisation scenarios in a later phase. Therefore, a complete model calibration procedure was applied including: (1) a description......The purpose of the calibrated model determines how to approach a model calibration, e.g. which information is needed and to which level of detail the model should be calibrated. A systematic model calibration procedure was therefore defined and evaluated for a municipal–industrial wastewater...

  2. Multi-Objective Validation of SWAT for Sparsely-Gauged West African River Basins—A Remote Sensing Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Poméon

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Predicting freshwater resources is a major concern in West Africa, where large parts of the population depend on rain-fed subsistence agriculture. However, a steady decline in the availability of in-situ measurements of climatic and hydrologic variables makes it difficult to simulate water resource availability with hydrological models. In this study, a modeling framework was set up for sparsely-gauged catchments in West Africa using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, whilst largely relying on remote sensing and reanalysis inputs. The model was calibrated using two different strategies and validated using discharge measurements. New in this study is the use of a multi-objective validation conducted to further investigate the performance of the model, where simulated actual evapotranspiration, soil moisture, and total water storage were evaluated using remote sensing data. Results show that the model performs well (R2 calibration: 0.52 and 0.51; R2 validation: 0.63 and 0.61 and the multi-objective validation reveals good agreement between predictions and observations. The study reveals the potential of using remote sensing data in sparsely-gauged catchments, resulting in good performance and providing data for evaluating water balance components that are not usually validated. The modeling framework presented in this study is the basis for future studies, which will address model response to extreme drought and flood events and further examine the coincidence with Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE total water storage retrievals.

  3. Dynamic calibration of agent-based models using data assimilation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Jonathan A; Evans, Andrew J; Malleson, Nicolas S

    2016-04-01

    A widespread approach to investigating the dynamical behaviour of complex social systems is via agent-based models (ABMs). In this paper, we describe how such models can be dynamically calibrated using the ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF), a standard method of data assimilation. Our goal is twofold. First, we want to present the EnKF in a simple setting for the benefit of ABM practitioners who are unfamiliar with it. Second, we want to illustrate to data assimilation experts the value of using such methods in the context of ABMs of complex social systems and the new challenges these types of model present. We work towards these goals within the context of a simple question of practical value: how many people are there in Leeds (or any other major city) right now? We build a hierarchy of exemplar models that we use to demonstrate how to apply the EnKF and calibrate these using open data of footfall counts in Leeds.

  4. A universal Model-R Coupler to facilitate the use of R functions for model calibration and analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shuguang; Yan, Wende

    2014-01-01

    Mathematical models are useful in various fields of science and engineering. However, it is a challenge to make a model utilize the open and growing functions (e.g., model inversion) on the R platform due to the requirement of accessing and revising the model's source code. To overcome this barrier, we developed a universal tool that aims to convert a model developed in any computer language to an R function using the template and instruction concept of the Parameter ESTimation program (PEST) and the operational structure of the R-Soil and Water Assessment Tool (R-SWAT). The developed tool (Model-R Coupler) is promising because users of any model can connect an external algorithm (written in R) with their model to implement various model behavior analyses (e.g., parameter optimization, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis, performance evaluation, and visualization) without accessing or modifying the model's source code.

  5. Calibration and validation of a general infiltration model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Ranjan Kumar, Shashi; Singh, Vijay P.

    1999-08-01

    A general infiltration model proposed by Singh and Yu (1990) was calibrated and validated using a split sampling approach for 191 sets of infiltration data observed in the states of Minnesota and Georgia in the USA. Of the five model parameters, fc (the final infiltration rate), So (the available storage space) and exponent n were found to be more predictable than the other two parameters: m (exponent) and a (proportionality factor). A critical examination of the general model revealed that it is related to the Soil Conservation Service (1956) curve number (SCS-CN) method and its parameter So is equivalent to the potential maximum retention of the SCS-CN method and is, in turn, found to be a function of soil sorptivity and hydraulic conductivity. The general model was found to describe infiltration rate with time varying curve number.

  6. Calibration of the simulation model of the VINCY cyclotron magnet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ćirković Saša

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The MERMAID program will be used to isochronise the nominal magnetic field of the VINCY Cyclotron. This program simulates the response, i. e. calculates the magnetic field, of a previously defined model of a magnet. The accuracy of 3D field calculation depends on the density of the grid points in the simulation model grid. The size of the VINCY Cyclotron and the maximum number of grid points in the XY plane limited by MERMAID define the maximumobtainable accuracy of field calculations. Comparisons of the field simulated with maximum obtainable accuracy with the magnetic field measured in the first phase of the VINCY Cyclotron magnetic field measurements campaign has shown that the difference between these two fields is not as small as required. Further decrease of the difference between these fields is obtained by the simulation model calibration, i. e. by adjusting the current through the main coils in the simulation model.

  7. Recent Improvements to the Calibration Models for RXTE/PCA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahoda, K.

    2008-01-01

    We are updating the calibration of the PCA to correct for slow variations, primarily in energy to channel relationship. We have also improved the physical model in the vicinity of the Xe K-edge, which should increase the reliability of continuum fits above 20 keV. The improvements to the matrix are especially important to simultaneous observations, where the PCA is often used to constrain the continuum while other higher resolution spectrometers are used to study the shape of lines and edges associated with Iron.

  8. Assessing the Efficacy of the SWAT Auto-Irrigation Function to Simulate Irrigation, Evapotranspiration, and Crop Response to Management Strategies of the Texas High Plains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Chen

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available In the semi-arid Texas High Plains, the underlying Ogallala Aquifer is experiencing continuing decline due to long-term pumping for irrigation with limited recharge. Accurate simulation of irrigation and other associated water balance components are critical for meaningful evaluation of the effects of irrigation management strategies. Modelers often employ auto-irrigation functions within models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. However, some studies have raised concerns as to whether the function is able to adequately simulate representative irrigation practices. In this study, observations of climate, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET, leaf area index (LAI, and crop yield derived from an irrigated lysimeter field at the USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory at Bushland, Texas were used to evaluate the efficacy of the SWAT auto-irrigation functions. Results indicated good agreement between simulated and observed daily ET during both model calibration (2001–2005 and validation (2006–2010 periods for the baseline scenario (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency; NSE ≥ 0.80. The auto-irrigation scenarios resulted in reasonable ET simulations under all the thresholds of soil water deficit (SWD triggers as indicated by NSE values > 0.5. However, the auto-irrigation function did not adequately represent field practices, due to the continuation of irrigation after crop maturity and excessive irrigation when SWD triggers were less than the static irrigation amount.

  9. Model validation and calibration based on component functions of model output

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu, Danqing; Lu, Zhenzhou; Wang, Yanping; Cheng, Lei

    2015-01-01

    The target in this work is to validate the component functions of model output between physical observation and computational model with the area metric. Based on the theory of high dimensional model representations (HDMR) of independent input variables, conditional expectations are component functions of model output, and the conditional expectations reflect partial information of model output. Therefore, the model validation of conditional expectations tells the discrepancy between the partial information of the computational model output and that of the observations. Then a calibration of the conditional expectations is carried out to reduce the value of model validation metric. After that, a recalculation of the model validation metric of model output is taken with the calibrated model parameters, and the result shows that a reduction of the discrepancy in the conditional expectations can help decrease the difference in model output. At last, several examples are employed to demonstrate the rationality and necessity of the methodology in case of both single validation site and multiple validation sites. - Highlights: • A validation metric of conditional expectations of model output is proposed. • HDRM explains the relationship of conditional expectations and model output. • An improved approach of parameter calibration updates the computational models. • Validation and calibration process are applied at single site and multiple sites. • Validation and calibration process show a superiority than existing methods

  10. Geomechanical Simulation of Bayou Choctaw Strategic Petroleum Reserve - Model Calibration.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Park, Byoung [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-02-01

    A finite element numerical analysis model has been constructed that consists of a realistic mesh capturing the geometries of Bayou Choctaw (BC) Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) site and multi - mechanism deformation ( M - D ) salt constitutive model using the daily data of actual wellhead pressure and oil - brine interface. The salt creep rate is not uniform in the salt dome, and the creep test data for BC salt is limited. Therefore, the model calibration is necessary to simulate the geomechanical behavior of the salt dome. The cavern volumetric closures of SPR caverns calculated from CAVEMAN are used for the field baseline measurement. The structure factor, A 2 , and transient strain limit factor, K 0 , in the M - D constitutive model are used for the calibration. The A 2 value obtained experimentally from the BC salt and K 0 value of Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP) salt are used for the baseline values. T o adjust the magnitude of A 2 and K 0 , multiplication factors A2F and K0F are defined, respectively. The A2F and K0F values of the salt dome and salt drawdown skins surrounding each SPR cavern have been determined through a number of back fitting analyses. The cavern volumetric closures calculated from this model correspond to the predictions from CAVEMAN for six SPR caverns. Therefore, this model is able to predict past and future geomechanical behaviors of the salt dome, caverns, caprock , and interbed layers. The geological concerns issued in the BC site will be explained from this model in a follow - up report .

  11. Selection, calibration, and validation of models of tumor growth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, E A B F; Oden, J T; Hormuth, D A; Yankeelov, T E; Almeida, R C

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents general approaches for addressing some of the most important issues in predictive computational oncology concerned with developing classes of predictive models of tumor growth. First, the process of developing mathematical models of vascular tumors evolving in the complex, heterogeneous, macroenvironment of living tissue; second, the selection of the most plausible models among these classes, given relevant observational data; third, the statistical calibration and validation of models in these classes, and finally, the prediction of key Quantities of Interest (QOIs) relevant to patient survival and the effect of various therapies. The most challenging aspects of this endeavor is that all of these issues often involve confounding uncertainties: in observational data, in model parameters, in model selection, and in the features targeted in the prediction. Our approach can be referred to as "model agnostic" in that no single model is advocated; rather, a general approach that explores powerful mixture-theory representations of tissue behavior while accounting for a range of relevant biological factors is presented, which leads to many potentially predictive models. Then representative classes are identified which provide a starting point for the implementation of OPAL, the Occam Plausibility Algorithm (OPAL) which enables the modeler to select the most plausible models (for given data) and to determine if the model is a valid tool for predicting tumor growth and morphology ( in vivo ). All of these approaches account for uncertainties in the model, the observational data, the model parameters, and the target QOI. We demonstrate these processes by comparing a list of models for tumor growth, including reaction-diffusion models, phase-fields models, and models with and without mechanical deformation effects, for glioma growth measured in murine experiments. Examples are provided that exhibit quite acceptable predictions of tumor growth in laboratory

  12. Differential Evolution algorithm applied to FSW model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Idagawa, H. S.; Santos, T. F. A.; Ramirez, A. J.

    2014-03-01

    Friction Stir Welding (FSW) is a solid state welding process that can be modelled using a Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) approach. These models use adjustable parameters to control the heat transfer and the heat input to the weld. These parameters are used to calibrate the model and they are generally determined using the conventional trial and error approach. Since this method is not very efficient, we used the Differential Evolution (DE) algorithm to successfully determine these parameters. In order to improve the success rate and to reduce the computational cost of the method, this work studied different characteristics of the DE algorithm, such as the evolution strategy, the objective function, the mutation scaling factor and the crossover rate. The DE algorithm was tested using a friction stir weld performed on a UNS S32205 Duplex Stainless Steel.

  13. A critical comparison of systematic calibration protocols for activated sludge models: a SWOT analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sin, Gürkan; Van Hulle, Stijn W H; De Pauw, Dirk J W; van Griensven, Ann; Vanrolleghem, Peter A

    2005-07-01

    Modelling activated sludge systems has gained an increasing momentum after the introduction of activated sludge models (ASMs) in 1987. Application of dynamic models for full-scale systems requires essentially a calibration of the chosen ASM to the case under study. Numerous full-scale model applications have been performed so far which were mostly based on ad hoc approaches and expert knowledge. Further, each modelling study has followed a different calibration approach: e.g. different influent wastewater characterization methods, different kinetic parameter estimation methods, different selection of parameters to be calibrated, different priorities within the calibration steps, etc. In short, there was no standard approach in performing the calibration study, which makes it difficult, if not impossible, to (1) compare different calibrations of ASMs with each other and (2) perform internal quality checks for each calibration study. To address these concerns, systematic calibration protocols have recently been proposed to bring guidance to the modeling of activated sludge systems and in particular to the calibration of full-scale models. In this contribution four existing calibration approaches (BIOMATH, HSG, STOWA and WERF) will be critically discussed using a SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis. It will also be assessed in what way these approaches can be further developed in view of further improving the quality of ASM calibration. In this respect, the potential of automating some steps of the calibration procedure by use of mathematical algorithms is highlighted.

  14. A calibration hierarchy for risk models was defined: from utopia to empirical data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Calster, Ben; Nieboer, Daan; Vergouwe, Yvonne; De Cock, Bavo; Pencina, Michael J; Steyerberg, Ewout W

    2016-06-01

    Calibrated risk models are vital for valid decision support. We define four levels of calibration and describe implications for model development and external validation of predictions. We present results based on simulated data sets. A common definition of calibration is "having an event rate of R% among patients with a predicted risk of R%," which we refer to as "moderate calibration." Weaker forms of calibration only require the average predicted risk (mean calibration) or the average prediction effects (weak calibration) to be correct. "Strong calibration" requires that the event rate equals the predicted risk for every covariate pattern. This implies that the model is fully correct for the validation setting. We argue that this is unrealistic: the model type may be incorrect, the linear predictor is only asymptotically unbiased, and all nonlinear and interaction effects should be correctly modeled. In addition, we prove that moderate calibration guarantees nonharmful decision making. Finally, results indicate that a flexible assessment of calibration in small validation data sets is problematic. Strong calibration is desirable for individualized decision support but unrealistic and counter productive by stimulating the development of overly complex models. Model development and external validation should focus on moderate calibration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fievet, Lucas; Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data.

  16. Calibrating emergent phenomena in stock markets with agent based models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sornette, Didier

    2018-01-01

    Since the 2008 financial crisis, agent-based models (ABMs), which account for out-of-equilibrium dynamics, heterogeneous preferences, time horizons and strategies, have often been envisioned as the new frontier that could revolutionise and displace the more standard models and tools in economics. However, their adoption and generalisation is drastically hindered by the absence of general reliable operational calibration methods. Here, we start with a different calibration angle that qualifies an ABM for its ability to achieve abnormal trading performance with respect to the buy-and-hold strategy when fed with real financial data. Starting from the common definition of standard minority and majority agents with binary strategies, we prove their equivalence to optimal decision trees. This efficient representation allows us to exhaustively test all meaningful single agent models for their potential anomalous investment performance, which we apply to the NASDAQ Composite index over the last 20 years. We uncover large significant predictive power, with anomalous Sharpe ratio and directional accuracy, in particular during the dotcom bubble and crash and the 2008 financial crisis. A principal component analysis reveals transient convergence between the anomalous minority and majority models. A novel combination of the optimal single-agent models of both classes into a two-agents model leads to remarkable superior investment performance, especially during the periods of bubbles and crashes. Our design opens the field of ABMs to construct novel types of advanced warning systems of market crises, based on the emergent collective intelligence of ABMs built on carefully designed optimal decision trees that can be reversed engineered from real financial data. PMID:29499049

  17. Geomechanical Model Calibration Using Field Measurements for a Petroleum Reserve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Byoung Yoon; Sobolik, Steven R.; Herrick, Courtney G.

    2018-03-01

    A finite element numerical analysis model has been constructed that consists of a mesh that effectively captures the geometries of Bayou Choctaw (BC) Strategic Petroleum Reserve (SPR) site and multimechanism deformation (M-D) salt constitutive model using the daily data of actual wellhead pressure and oil-brine interface location. The salt creep rate is not uniform in the salt dome, and the creep test data for BC salt are limited. Therefore, the model calibration is necessary to simulate the geomechanical behavior of the salt dome. The cavern volumetric closures of SPR caverns calculated from CAVEMAN are used as the field baseline measurement. The structure factor, A 2, and transient strain limit factor, K 0, in the M-D constitutive model are used for the calibration. The value of A 2, obtained experimentally from BC salt, and the value of K 0, obtained from Waste Isolation Pilot Plant salt, are used for the baseline values. To adjust the magnitude of A 2 and K 0, multiplication factors A 2 F and K 0 F are defined, respectively. The A 2 F and K 0 F values of the salt dome and salt drawdown skins surrounding each SPR cavern have been determined through a number of back analyses. The cavern volumetric closures calculated from this model correspond to the predictions from CAVEMAN for six SPR caverns. Therefore, this model is able to predict behaviors of the salt dome, caverns, caprock, and interbed layers. The geotechnical concerns associated with the BC site from this analysis will be explained in a follow-up paper.

  18. Secondary clarifier hybrid model calibration in full scale pulp and paper activated sludge wastewater treatment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sreckovic, G.; Hall, E.R. [British Columbia Univ., Dept. of Civil Engineering, Vancouver, BC (Canada); Thibault, J. [Laval Univ., Dept. of Chemical Engineering, Ste-Foy, PQ (Canada); Savic, D. [Exeter Univ., School of Engineering, Exeter (United Kingdom)

    1999-05-01

    The issue of proper model calibration techniques applied to mechanistic mathematical models relating to activated sludge systems was discussed. Such calibrations are complex because of the non-linearity and multi-model objective functions of the process. This paper presents a hybrid model which was developed using two techniques to model and calibrate secondary clarifier parts of an activated sludge system. Genetic algorithms were used to successfully calibrate the settler mechanistic model, and neural networks were used to reduce the error between the mechanistic model output and real world data. Results of the modelling study show that the long term response of a one-dimensional settler mechanistic model calibrated by genetic algorithms and compared to full scale plant data can be improved by coupling the calibrated mechanistic model to as black-box model, such as a neural network. 11 refs., 2 figs.

  19. A joint calibration model for combining predictive distributions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrizia Agati

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available In many research fields, as for example in probabilistic weather forecasting, valuable predictive information about a future random phenomenon may come from several, possibly heterogeneous, sources. Forecast combining methods have been developed over the years in order to deal with ensembles of sources: the aim is to combine several predictions in such a way to improve forecast accuracy and reduce risk of bad forecasts.In this context, we propose the use of a Bayesian approach to information combining, which consists in treating the predictive probability density functions (pdfs from the individual ensemble members as data in a Bayesian updating problem. The likelihood function is shown to be proportional to the product of the pdfs, adjusted by a joint “calibration function” describing the predicting skill of the sources (Morris, 1977. In this paper, after rephrasing Morris’ algorithm in a predictive context, we propose to model the calibration function in terms of bias, scale and correlation and to estimate its parameters according to the least squares criterion. The performance of our method is investigated and compared with that of Bayesian Model Averaging (Raftery, 2005 on simulated data.

  20. A Solvatochromic Model Calibrates Nitriles’ Vibrational Frequencies to Electrostatic Fields

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bagchi, Sayan; Fried, Stephen D.; Boxer, Steven G.

    2012-01-01

    Electrostatic interactions provide a primary connection between a protein’s three-dimensional structure and its function. Infrared (IR) probes are useful because vibrational frequencies of certain chemical groups, such as nitriles, are linearly sensitive to local electrostatic field, and can serve as a molecular electric field meter. IR spectroscopy has been used to study electrostatic changes or fluctuations in proteins, but measured peak frequencies have not been previously mapped to total electric fields, because of the absence of a field-frequency calibration and the complication of local chemical effects such as H-bonds. We report a solvatochromic model that provides a means to assess the H-bonding status of aromatic nitrile vibrational probes, and calibrates their vibrational frequencies to electrostatic field. The analysis involves correlations between the nitrile’s IR frequency and its 13C chemical shift, whose observation is facilitated by a robust method for introducing isotopes into aromatic nitriles. The method is tested on the model protein Ribonuclease S (RNase S) containing a labeled p-CN-Phe near the active site. Comparison of the measurements in RNase S against solvatochromic data gives an estimate of the average total electrostatic field at this location. The value determined agrees quantitatively with MD simulations, suggesting broader potential for the use of IR probes in the study of protein electrostatics. PMID:22694663

  1. Calibration Modeling Methodology to Optimize Performance for Low Range Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCollum, Raymond A.; Commo, Sean A.; Parker, Peter A.

    2010-01-01

    Calibration is a vital process in characterizing the performance of an instrument in an application environment and seeks to obtain acceptable accuracy over the entire design range. Often, project requirements specify a maximum total measurement uncertainty, expressed as a percent of full-scale. However in some applications, we seek to obtain enhanced performance at the low range, therefore expressing the accuracy as a percent of reading should be considered as a modeling strategy. For example, it is common to desire to use a force balance in multiple facilities or regimes, often well below its designed full-scale capacity. This paper presents a general statistical methodology for optimizing calibration mathematical models based on a percent of reading accuracy requirement, which has broad application in all types of transducer applications where low range performance is required. A case study illustrates the proposed methodology for the Mars Entry Atmospheric Data System that employs seven strain-gage based pressure transducers mounted on the heatshield of the Mars Science Laboratory mission.

  2. Preliminary report on NTS spectral gamma logging and calibration models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mathews, M.A.; Warren, R.G.; Garcia, S.R.; Lavelle, M.J.

    1985-01-01

    Facilities are now available at the Nevada Test Site (NTS) in Building 2201 to calibrate spectral gamma logging equipment in environments of low radioactivity. Such environments are routinely encountered during logging of holes at the NTS. Four calibration models were delivered to Building 2201 in January 1985. Each model, or test pit, consists of a stone block with a 12-inch diameter cored borehole. Preliminary radioelement values from the core for the test pits range from 0.58 to 3.83% potassium (K), 0.48 to 29.11 ppm thorium (Th), and 0.62 to 40.42 ppm uranium (U). Two satellite holes, U19ab number2 and U19ab number3, were logged during the winter of 1984-1985. The response of these logs correlates with contents of the naturally radioactive elements K. Th. and U determined in samples from petrologic zones that occur within these holes. Based on these comparisons, the spectral gamma log aids in the recognition and mapping of subsurface stratigraphic units and alteration features associated with unusual concentration of these radioactive elements, such as clay-rich zones

  3. Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Li, Tiejian; Sun, Liqun; Chen, Ji

    2013-01-01

    With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

  4. Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Senent-Aparicio

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The Segura River Basin is one of the most water-stressed basins in Mediterranean Europe. If we add to the actual situation that most climate change projections forecast important decreases in water resource availability in the Mediterranean region, the situation will become totally unsustainable. This study assessed the impact of climate change in the headwaters of the Segura River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT with bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data from two Regional Climate Models (RCMs for the medium term (2041–2070 and the long term (2071–2100 under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bias correction was performed using the distribution mapping approach. The fuzzy TOPSIS technique was applied to rank a set of nine GCM–RCM combinations, choosing the climate models with a higher relative closeness. The study results show that the SWAT performed satisfactorily for both calibration (NSE = 0.80 and validation (NSE = 0.77 periods. Comparing the long-term and baseline (1971–2000 periods, precipitation showed a negative trend between 6% and 32%, whereas projected annual mean temperatures demonstrated an estimated increase of 1.5–3.3 °C. Water resources were estimated to experience a decrease of 2%–54%. These findings provide local water management authorities with very useful information in the face of climate change.

  5. Modeling Prairie Pothole Lakes: Linking Satellite Observation and Calibration (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwartz, F. W.; Liu, G.; Zhang, B.; Yu, Z.

    2009-12-01

    This paper examines the response of a complex lake wetland system to variations in climate. The focus is on the lakes and wetlands of the Missouri Coteau, which is part of the larger Prairie Pothole Region of the Central Plains of North America. Information on lake size was enumerated from satellite images, and yielded power law relationships for different hydrological conditions. More traditional lake-stage data were made available to us from the USGS Cottonwood Lake Study Site in North Dakota. A Probabilistic Hydrologic Model (PHM) was developed to simulate lake complexes comprised of tens-of-thousands or more individual closed-basin lakes and wetlands. What is new about this model is a calibration scheme that utilizes remotely-sensed data on lake area as well as stage data for individual lakes. Some ¼ million individual data points are used within a Genetic Algorithm to calibrate the model by comparing the simulated results with observed lake area-frequency power law relationships derived from Landsat images and water depths from seven individual lakes and wetlands. The simulated lake behaviors show good agreement with the observations under average, dry, and wet climatic conditions. The calibrated model is used to examine the impact of climate variability on a large lake complex in ND, in particular, the “Dust Bowl Drought” 1930s. This most famous drought of the 20th Century devastated the agricultural economy of the Great Plains with health and social impacts lingering for years afterwards. Interestingly, the drought of 1930s is unremarkable in relation to others of greater intensity and frequency before AD 1200 in the Great Plains. Major droughts and deluges have the ability to create marked variability of the power law function (e.g. up to one and a half orders of magnitude variability from the extreme Dust Bowl Drought to the extreme 1993-2001 deluge). This new probabilistic modeling approach provides a novel tool to examine the response of the

  6. Simulation on Change Law of Runoff, Sediment and Non-point Source Nitrogen and Phosphorus Discharge under Different Land uses Based on SWAT Model: A Case Study of Er hai Lake Small Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tong, Xiao Xia; Lai Cui, Yuan; Chen, Man Yu; Hu, Bo; Xu, Wen Sheng

    2018-05-01

    The Er yuan watershed of Er hai district is chosen as the research area, the law of runoff and sediment and non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus discharges under different land uses during 2001 to 2014 are simulated based on SWAT model. Results of simulation indicate that the order of total runoff yield of different land use type from high to low is grassland, paddy fields, dry land. Specifically, the order of surface runoff yield from high to low is paddy fields, dry land, grassland, the order of lateral runoff yield from high to low is paddy fields, dry land, grassland, the order of groundwater runoff yield from high to low is grassland, paddy fields, dry land. The orders of sediment and nitrogen and phosphorus yield per unit area of different land use type are the same, grassland> paddy fields> dry land. It can be seen, nitrogen and phosphorus discharges from paddy fields and dry land are the main sources of agricultural non-point pollution of the irrigated area. Therefore, reasonable field management measures which can decrease the discharge of nitrogen and phosphorus of paddy fields and dry land are the key to agricultural non-point source pollution prevention and control.

  7. Non-linear calibration models for near infrared spectroscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ni, Wangdong; Nørgaard, Lars; Mørup, Morten

    2014-01-01

    by ridge regression (RR). The performance of the different methods is demonstrated by their practical applications using three real-life near infrared (NIR) data sets. Different aspects of the various approaches including computational time, model interpretability, potential over-fitting using the non-linear...... models on linear problems, robustness to small or medium sample sets, and robustness to pre-processing, are discussed. The results suggest that GPR and BANN are powerful and promising methods for handling linear as well as nonlinear systems, even when the data sets are moderately small. The LS......-SVM), relevance vector machines (RVM), Gaussian process regression (GPR), artificial neural network (ANN), and Bayesian ANN (BANN). In this comparison, partial least squares (PLS) regression is used as a linear benchmark, while the relationship of the methods is considered in terms of traditional calibration...

  8. A New Perspective for the Calibration of Computational Predictor Models.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Crespo, Luis Guillermo

    2014-11-01

    This paper presents a framework for calibrating computational models using data from sev- eral and possibly dissimilar validation experiments. The offset between model predictions and observations, which might be caused by measurement noise, model-form uncertainty, and numerical error, drives the process by which uncertainty in the models parameters is characterized. The resulting description of uncertainty along with the computational model constitute a predictor model. Two types of predictor models are studied: Interval Predictor Models (IPMs) and Random Predictor Models (RPMs). IPMs use sets to characterize uncer- tainty, whereas RPMs use random vectors. The propagation of a set through a model makes the response an interval valued function of the state, whereas the propagation of a random vector yields a random process. Optimization-based strategies for calculating both types of predictor models are proposed. Whereas the formulations used to calculate IPMs target solutions leading to the interval value function of minimal spread containing all observations, those for RPMs seek to maximize the models' ability to reproduce the distribution of obser- vations. Regarding RPMs, we choose a structure for the random vector (i.e., the assignment of probability to points in the parameter space) solely dependent on the prediction error. As such, the probabilistic description of uncertainty is not a subjective assignment of belief, nor is it expected to asymptotically converge to a fixed value, but instead it is a description of the model's ability to reproduce the experimental data. This framework enables evaluating the spread and distribution of the predicted response of target applications depending on the same parameters beyond the validation domain (i.e., roll-up and extrapolation).

  9. Modified calibration protocol evaluated in a model-based testing of SBR flexibility

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Corominas, Lluís; Sin, Gürkan; Puig, Sebastià

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to refine the BIOMATH calibration protocol for SBR systems, in particular to develop a pragmatic calibration protocol that takes advantage of SBR information-rich data, defines a simulation strategy to obtain proper initial conditions for model calibration and provide...

  10. Hydrologic Response Unit Routing in SWAT to Simulate Effects of Vegetated Filter Strip for South-Korean Conditions Based on VFSMOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung Jae Lim

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model has been used worldwide for many hydrologic and Non-Point Source (NPS Pollution analyses on a watershed scale. However, it has many limitations in simulating the Vegetative Filter Strip (VFS because it considers only ‘filter strip width’ when the model estimates sediment trapping efficiency and does not consider the routing of sediment with overland flow which is expected to maximize the sediment trapping efficiency from upper agricultural subwatersheds to lower spatially-explicit filter strips. Therefore, the SWAT overland flow option between landuse-subwatersheds with sediment routing capability was enhanced by modifying the SWAT watershed configuration and SWAT engine based on the numerical model VFSMOD applied to South-Korean conditions. The enhanced SWAT can simulate the VFS sediment trapping efficiency for South-Korean conditions in a manner similar to the desktop VFSMOD-w system. Due to this enhancement, SWAT is applicable to simulate the effects of overland flow from upper subwatersheds to reflect increased runoff volume at the lower subwatershed, which occurs in the field if no diversion channel is installed. In this study, the enhanced SWAT model was applied to small watersheds located at Jaun-ri in South-Korea to simulate a diversion channel and spatially-explicit VFS. Sediment can be reduced by 31%, 65%, and 68%, with a diversion channel, the VFS, and the VFS with diversion channel, respectively. The enhanced SWAT should be used in estimating site-specific effects on sediment reduction with diversion channels and VFS, instead of the currently available SWAT, which does not simulate sediment routing in overland flow and does not consider other sensitive factors affecting sediment reduction with VFS.

  11. Root zone water quality model (RZWQM2): Model use, calibration and validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Liwang; Ahuja, Lajpat; Nolan, B.T.; Malone, Robert; Trout, Thomas; Qi, Z.

    2012-01-01

    The Root Zone Water Quality Model (RZWQM2) has been used widely for simulating agricultural management effects on crop production and soil and water quality. Although it is a one-dimensional model, it has many desirable features for the modeling community. This article outlines the principles of calibrating the model component by component with one or more datasets and validating the model with independent datasets. Users should consult the RZWQM2 user manual distributed along with the model and a more detailed protocol on how to calibrate RZWQM2 provided in a book chapter. Two case studies (or examples) are included in this article. One is from an irrigated maize study in Colorado to illustrate the use of field and laboratory measured soil hydraulic properties on simulated soil water and crop production. It also demonstrates the interaction between soil and plant parameters in simulated plant responses to water stresses. The other is from a maize-soybean rotation study in Iowa to show a manual calibration of the model for crop yield, soil water, and N leaching in tile-drained soils. Although the commonly used trial-and-error calibration method works well for experienced users, as shown in the second example, an automated calibration procedure is more objective, as shown in the first example. Furthermore, the incorporation of the Parameter Estimation Software (PEST) into RZWQM2 made the calibration of the model more efficient than a grid (ordered) search of model parameters. In addition, PEST provides sensitivity and uncertainty analyses that should help users in selecting the right parameters to calibrate.

  12. Modeling discharge and water quality in a temporary river basin using SWAT model: A case-study on the Ardila river

    OpenAIRE

    Durão, Anabela; Serafim, António; Brito, David; Morais, Manuela

    2012-01-01

    Temporary rivers have a hydrologic variability, which are characterized by long drought periods and short floods events, that influences water quality. Analysis of river flow generated in the Ardila river basin (temporary regime) using precipitation data (from 1931 to 2003) from a weather station, located within the basin, at the Portuguese side (which represents only 22% of the study area) showed a discrepancy between the modeled and observed runoff since 1981. It was also revealed a satisfa...

  13. Calibration of a DG–model for fluorescence microscopy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Christian Valdemar

    It is well known that diseases like Alzheimer, Parkinson, Corea Huntington and Arteriosclerosis are caused by a jam in intracellular membrane traffic [2]. Hence to improve treatment, a quantitative analysis of intracellular transport is essential. Fluorescence loss in photobleaching (FLIP......) is an impor- tant and widely used microscopy method for visualization of molecular transport processes in living cells. Thus, the motivation for making an automated reliable analysis of the image data is high. In this contribution, we present and comment on the calibration of a Discontinuous......–Galerkin simulator [3, 4] on segmented cell images. The cell geometry is extracted from FLIP images using the Chan– Vese active contours algorithm [1] while the DG simulator is implemented in FEniCS [5]. Simulated FLIP sequences based on optimal parameters from the PDE model are presented, with an overall goal...

  14. The design and realization of calibration apparatus for measuring the concentration of radon in three models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huiping, Guo [The Second Artillery Engineering College, Xi' an (China)

    2007-06-15

    For satisfying calibration request of radon measure in the laboratory, the calibration apparatus for radon activity measure is designed and realized. The calibration apparatus can auto-control and auto-measure in three models. sequent mode, pulse mode and constant mode. The stability and reliability of the calibration apparatus was tested under the three models. The experimental result shows that the apparatus can provides an adjustable and steady radon activity concentration environment for the research of radon and its progeny and for the calibration of its measure. (authors)

  15. Hydrological processes and model representation: impact of soft data on calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    J.G. Arnold; M.A. Youssef; H. Yen; M.J. White; A.Y. Sheshukov; A.M. Sadeghi; D.N. Moriasi; J.L. Steiner; Devendra Amatya; R.W. Skaggs; E.B. Haney; J. Jeong; M. Arabi; P.H. Gowda

    2015-01-01

    Hydrologic and water quality models are increasingly used to determine the environmental impacts of climate variability and land management. Due to differing model objectives and differences in monitored data, there are currently no universally accepted procedures for model calibration and validation in the literature. In an effort to develop accepted model calibration...

  16. Characterizing snowmelt regime of the river swat - a case study

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malik, M.A.

    2015-01-01

    Snowmelt generates 70 to 80% of runoff of Indus River and its tributaries. Forecasting snowmelt generated flow is important for water management, reservoir operation and channel diversion. River Swat being not direct contributor to the existing reservoirs remained out of focus for characterizing its snowmelt regime. Thirty years (1971-2000) data of upper Swat catchment above Kalam gauging station was acquired from WAPDA. Normal monthly values over the period and average monthly values of each year were determined for stream flow, precipitation and temperature together with average monthly values of weighted and maximum temperature. Snowmelt regime was ascertained from plot of normal values of flow, precipitation and temperature. Using temperature index approach, average monthly flow over the snowmelt months (April, May and June) in terms of mm depth over the catchment was regressed on all the temperature indices using exponential, power and third degree polynomial functions. Tmax was found the best index for snowmelt with R2 as 0.902 for the third degree polynomial function. Runoff coefficient (ROC) for the total precipitation was conceptualized and through iteration was found as T max 100. The optimized value of ROC was used to segregate rain induced and snowmelt induced runoff. The segregated snowmelt induced runoff was again regressed on Tmax using the same function which slightly improved R2 to 0.916. The model was tested for four years of data and forecasted flow was found reasonable in the context of simplicity of the approach. (author)

  17. The SWAT approach for pipeline watercourse crossings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jasper, Steve [WorleyParsons Calgary, Pipeline Systems Business Unit, Calgary, AB (Canada)], email: steve.jasper@worleyparsons.com; Harris, Jason D. [Triton Environmental Consultants Ltd., Terrace, British Columbia (Canada)], email: jharris@triton-env.com; Doering, Raymond [Enbridge Northern Gateway Pipelines, Calgary, AB (Canada)], email: raymond.doering@enbridge.com

    2010-07-01

    In a pipeline project, watercourse crossings are an important environmental and technical challenge. In identifying the best crossing location and method, many factors must be taken into account such as fish habitat, access, geotechnical and hydrological issues. The aim of this paper is to present a program used in a major pipeline project to assess crossings of sensitive watercourses. This program was implemented in the Enbridge Northern Gateway project which extends from Bruderheim, Alberta, to Kitimat, British Columbia, crossing over 750 watercourses. A sensitive watercourse assessment (SWAT) team composed of a fisheries biologist, a pipeline watercourse construction specialist and other personnel carried out assessments on the 200 sensitive watercourses identified. This program led to recommendations to shift the crossing location at 40% of the sensitive sites. This project showed that setting up a SWAT team be helpful in choosing the best location, method and construction timing for a crossing.

  18. A global model for residential energy use: Uncertainty in calibration to regional data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    van Ruijven, Bas; van Vuuren, Detlef P.; de Vries, Bert; van der Sluijs, Jeroen P.

    2010-01-01

    Uncertainties in energy demand modelling allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a single model. We apply an automated model calibration procedure to analyse calibration uncertainty of residential sector energy use modelling in the TIMER 2.0 global energy model. This model simulates energy use on the basis of changes in useful energy intensity, technology development (AEEI) and price responses (PIEEI). We find that different implementations of these factors yield behavioural model results. Model calibration uncertainty is identified as influential source for variation in future projections: amounting 30% to 100% around the best estimate. Energy modellers should systematically account for this and communicate calibration uncertainty ranges. (author)

  19. Evaluation of remotely sensed actual evapotranspiration data for modeling small scale irrigation in Ethiopia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taddele, Y. D.; Ayana, E.; Worqlul, A. W.; Srinivasan, R.; Gerik, T.; Clarke, N.

    2017-12-01

    The research presented in this paper is conducted in Ethiopia, which is located in the horn of Africa. Ethiopian economy largely depends on rainfed agriculture, which employs 80% of the labor force. The rainfed agriculture is frequently affected by droughts and dry spells. Small scale irrigation is considered as the lifeline for the livelihoods of smallholder farmers in Ethiopia. Biophysical models are highly used to determine the agricultural production, environmental sustainability, and socio-economic outcomes of small scale irrigation in Ethiopia. However, detailed spatially explicit data is not adequately available to calibrate and validate simulations from biophysical models. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was setup using finer resolution spatial and temporal data. The actual evapotranspiration (AET) estimation from the SWAT model was compared with two remotely sensed data, namely the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR) and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS). The performance of the monthly satellite data was evaluated with correlation coefficient (R2) over the different land use groups. The result indicated that over the long term and monthly the AVHRR AET captures the pattern of SWAT simulated AET reasonably well, especially on agricultural dominated landscapes. A comparison between SWAT simulated AET and AVHRR AET provided mixed results on grassland dominated landscapes and poor agreement on forest dominated landscapes. Results showed that the AVHRR AET products showed superior agreement with the SWAT simulated AET than MODIS AET. This suggests that remotely sensed products can be used as valuable tool in properly modeling small scale irrigation.

  20. NSLS-II: Nonlinear Model Calibration for Synchrotrons

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bengtsson, J.

    2010-10-08

    This tech note is essentially a summary of a lecture we delivered to the Acc. Phys. Journal Club Apr, 2010. However, since the estimated accuracy of these methods has been naive and misleading in the field of particle accelerators, i.e., ignores the impact of noise, we will elaborate on this in some detail. A prerequisite for a calibration of the nonlinear Hamiltonian is that the quadratic part has been understood, i.e., that the linear optics for the real accelerator has been calibrated. For synchrotron light source operations, this problem has been solved by the interactive LOCO technique/tool (Linear Optics from Closed Orbits). Before that, in the context of hadron accelerators, it has been done by signal processing of turn-by-turn BPM data. We have outlined how to make a basic calibration of the nonlinear model for synchrotrons. In particular, we have shown how this was done for LEAR, CERN (antiprotons) in the mid-80s. Specifically, our accuracy for frequency estimation was {approx} 1 x 10{sup -5} for 1024 turns (to calibrate the linear optics) and {approx} 1 x 10{sup -4} for 256 turns for tune footprint and betatron spectrum. For a comparison, the estimated tune footprint for stable beam for NSLS-II is {approx}0.1. Since the transverse damping time is {approx}20 msec, i.e., {approx}4,000 turns. There is no fundamental difference for: antiprotons, protons, and electrons in this case. Because the estimated accuracy for these methods in the field of particle accelerators has been naive, i.e., ignoring the impact of noise, we have also derived explicit formula, from first principles, for a quantitative statement. For e.g. N = 256 and 5% noise we obtain {delta}{nu} {approx} 1 x 10{sup -5}. A comparison with the state-of-the-arts in e.g. telecomm and electrical engineering since the 60s is quite revealing. For example, Kalman filter (1960), crucial for the: Ranger, Mariner, and Apollo (including the Lunar Module) missions during the 60s. Or Claude Shannon et al

  1. NSLS-II: Nonlinear Model Calibration for Synchrotrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bengtsson, J.

    2010-01-01

    This tech note is essentially a summary of a lecture we delivered to the Acc. Phys. Journal Club Apr, 2010. However, since the estimated accuracy of these methods has been naive and misleading in the field of particle accelerators, i.e., ignores the impact of noise, we will elaborate on this in some detail. A prerequisite for a calibration of the nonlinear Hamiltonian is that the quadratic part has been understood, i.e., that the linear optics for the real accelerator has been calibrated. For synchrotron light source operations, this problem has been solved by the interactive LOCO technique/tool (Linear Optics from Closed Orbits). Before that, in the context of hadron accelerators, it has been done by signal processing of turn-by-turn BPM data. We have outlined how to make a basic calibration of the nonlinear model for synchrotrons. In particular, we have shown how this was done for LEAR, CERN (antiprotons) in the mid-80s. Specifically, our accuracy for frequency estimation was ∼ 1 x 10 -5 for 1024 turns (to calibrate the linear optics) and ∼ 1 x 10 -4 for 256 turns for tune footprint and betatron spectrum. For a comparison, the estimated tune footprint for stable beam for NSLS-II is ∼0.1. Since the transverse damping time is ∼20 msec, i.e., ∼4,000 turns. There is no fundamental difference for: antiprotons, protons, and electrons in this case. Because the estimated accuracy for these methods in the field of particle accelerators has been naive, i.e., ignoring the impact of noise, we have also derived explicit formula, from first principles, for a quantitative statement. For e.g. N = 256 and 5% noise we obtain (delta)ν ∼ 1 x 10 -5 . A comparison with the state-of-the-arts in e.g. telecomm and electrical engineering since the 60s is quite revealing. For example, Kalman filter (1960), crucial for the: Ranger, Mariner, and Apollo (including the Lunar Module) missions during the 60s. Or Claude Shannon et al since the 40s for that matter. Conclusion: what

  2. Calibration of a distributed hydrology and land surface model using energy flux measurements

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Morten Andreas Dahl; Refsgaard, Jens Christian; Jensen, Karsten H.

    2016-01-01

    In this study we develop and test a calibration approach on a spatially distributed groundwater-surface water catchment model (MIKE SHE) coupled to a land surface model component with particular focus on the water and energy fluxes. The model is calibrated against time series of eddy flux measure...

  3. Modelling and calibration of a ring-shaped electrostatic meter

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhang Jianyong [University of Teesside, Middlesbrough TS1 3BA (United Kingdom); Zhou Bin; Xu Chuanlong; Wang Shimin, E-mail: zhoubinde1980@gmail.co [Southeast University, Sipailou 2, Nanjing 210096 (China)

    2009-02-01

    Ring-shaped electrostatic flow meters can provide very useful information on pneumatically transported air-solids mixture. This type of meters are popular in measuring and controlling the pulverized coal flow distribution among conveyors leading to burners in coal-fired power stations, and they have also been used for research purposes, e.g. for the investigation of electrification mechanism of air-solids two-phase flow. In this paper, finite element method (FEM) is employed to analyze the characteristics of ring-shaped electrostatic meters, and a mathematic model has been developed to express the relationship between the meter's voltage output and the motion of charged particles in the sensing volume. The theoretical analysis and the test results using a belt rig demonstrate that the output of the meter depends upon many parameters including the characteristics of conditioning circuitry, the particle velocity vector, the amount and the rate of change of the charge carried by particles, the locations of particles and etc. This paper also introduces a method to optimize the theoretical model via calibration.

  4. Hanford statewide groundwater flow and transport model calibration report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Law, A.; Panday, S.; Denslow, C.; Fecht, K.; Knepp, A.

    1996-04-01

    This report presents the results of the development and calibration of a three-dimensional, finite element model (VAM3DCG) for the unconfined groundwater flow system at the Hanford Site. This flow system is the largest radioactively contaminated groundwater system in the United States. Eleven groundwater plumes have been identified containing organics, inorganics, and radionuclides. Because groundwater from the unconfined groundwater system flows into the Columbia River, the development of a groundwater flow model is essential to the long-term management of these plumes. Cost effective decision making requires the capability to predict the effectiveness of various remediation approaches. Some of the alternatives available to remediate groundwater include: pumping contaminated water from the ground for treatment with reinjection or to other disposal facilities; containment of plumes by means of impermeable walls, physical barriers, and hydraulic control measures; and, in some cases, management of groundwater via planned recharge and withdrawals. Implementation of these methods requires a knowledge of the groundwater flow system and how it responds to remedial actions

  5. Streamflow characteristics from modelled runoff time series: Importance of calibration criteria selection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Poole, Sandra; Vis, Marc; Knight, Rodney; Seibert, Jan

    2017-01-01

    Ecologically relevant streamflow characteristics (SFCs) of ungauged catchments are often estimated from simulated runoff of hydrologic models that were originally calibrated on gauged catchments. However, SFC estimates of the gauged donor catchments and subsequently the ungauged catchments can be substantially uncertain when models are calibrated using traditional approaches based on optimization of statistical performance metrics (e.g., Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency). An improved calibration strategy for gauged catchments is therefore crucial to help reduce the uncertainties of estimated SFCs for ungauged catchments. The aim of this study was to improve SFC estimates from modeled runoff time series in gauged catchments by explicitly including one or several SFCs in the calibration process. Different types of objective functions were defined consisting of the Nash–Sutcliffe model efficiency, single SFCs, or combinations thereof. We calibrated a bucket-type runoff model (HBV – Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenavdelning – model) for 25 catchments in the Tennessee River basin and evaluated the proposed calibration approach on 13 ecologically relevant SFCs representing major flow regime components and different flow conditions. While the model generally tended to underestimate the tested SFCs related to mean and high-flow conditions, SFCs related to low flow were generally overestimated. The highest estimation accuracies were achieved by a SFC-specific model calibration. Estimates of SFCs not included in the calibration process were of similar quality when comparing a multi-SFC calibration approach to a traditional model efficiency calibration. For practical applications, this implies that SFCs should preferably be estimated from targeted runoff model calibration, and modeled estimates need to be carefully interpreted.

  6. Application of Iterative Robust Model-based Optimal Experimental Design for the Calibration of Biocatalytic Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Van Daele, Timothy; Gernaey, Krist V.; Ringborg, Rolf Hoffmeyer

    2017-01-01

    The aim of model calibration is to estimate unique parameter values from available experimental data, here applied to a biocatalytic process. The traditional approach of first gathering data followed by performing a model calibration is inefficient, since the information gathered during...... experimentation is not actively used to optimise the experimental design. By applying an iterative robust model-based optimal experimental design, the limited amount of data collected is used to design additional informative experiments. The algorithm is used here to calibrate the initial reaction rate of an ω......-transaminase catalysed reaction in a more accurate way. The parameter confidence region estimated from the Fisher Information Matrix is compared with the likelihood confidence region, which is a more accurate, but also a computationally more expensive method. As a result, an important deviation between both approaches...

  7. Model Robust Calibration: Method and Application to Electronically-Scanned Pressure Transducers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Eric L.; Starnes, B. Alden; Birch, Jeffery B.; Mays, James E.

    2010-01-01

    This article presents the application of a recently developed statistical regression method to the controlled instrument calibration problem. The statistical method of Model Robust Regression (MRR), developed by Mays, Birch, and Starnes, is shown to improve instrument calibration by reducing the reliance of the calibration on a predetermined parametric (e.g. polynomial, exponential, logarithmic) model. This is accomplished by allowing fits from the predetermined parametric model to be augmented by a certain portion of a fit to the residuals from the initial regression using a nonparametric (locally parametric) regression technique. The method is demonstrated for the absolute scale calibration of silicon-based pressure transducers.

  8. Calibration of a complex activated sludge model for the full-scale wastewater treatment plant

    OpenAIRE

    Liwarska-Bizukojc, Ewa; Olejnik, Dorota; Biernacki, Rafal; Ledakowicz, Stanislaw

    2011-01-01

    In this study, the results of the calibration of the complex activated sludge model implemented in BioWin software for the full-scale wastewater treatment plant are presented. Within the calibration of the model, sensitivity analysis of its parameters and the fractions of carbonaceous substrate were performed. In the steady-state and dynamic calibrations, a successful agreement between the measured and simulated values of the output variables was achieved. Sensitivity analysis revealed that u...

  9. Generator Dynamic Model Validation and Parameter Calibration Using Phasor Measurements at the Point of Connection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Zhenyu; Du, Pengwei; Kosterev, Dmitry; Yang, Steve

    2013-05-01

    Disturbance data recorded by phasor measurement units (PMU) offers opportunities to improve the integrity of dynamic models. However, manually tuning parameters through play-back events demands significant efforts and engineering experiences. In this paper, a calibration method using the extended Kalman filter (EKF) technique is proposed. The formulation of EKF with parameter calibration is discussed. Case studies are presented to demonstrate its validity. The proposed calibration method is cost-effective, complementary to traditional equipment testing for improving dynamic model quality.

  10. A new method to calibrate Lagrangian model with ASAR images for oil slick trajectory.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Siyu; Huang, Xiaoxia; Li, Hongga

    2017-03-15

    Since Lagrangian model coefficients vary with different conditions, it is necessary to calibrate the model to obtain optimal coefficient combination for special oil spill accident. This paper focuses on proposing a new method to calibrate Lagrangian model with time series of Envisat ASAR images. Oil slicks extracted from time series images form a detected trajectory of special oil slick. Lagrangian model is calibrated by minimizing the difference between simulated trajectory and detected trajectory. mean center position distance difference (MCPD) and rotation difference (RD) of Oil slicks' or particles' standard deviational ellipses (SDEs) are calculated as two evaluations. The two parameters are taken to evaluate the performance of Lagrangian transport model with different coefficient combinations. This method is applied to Penglai 19-3 oil spill accident. The simulation result with calibrated model agrees well with related satellite observations. It is suggested the new method is effective to calibrate Lagrangian model. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Calibration models for density borehole logging - construction report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Engelmann, R.E.; Lewis, R.E.; Stromswold, D.C.

    1995-10-01

    Two machined blocks of magnesium and aluminum alloys form the basis for Hanford's density models. The blocks provide known densities of 1.780 ± 0.002 g/cm 3 and 2.804 ± 0.002 g/cm 3 for calibrating borehole logging tools that measure density based on gamma-ray scattering from a source in the tool. Each block is approximately 33 x 58 x 91 cm (13 x 23 x 36 in.) with cylindrical grooves cut into the sides of the blocks to hold steel casings of inner diameter 15 cm (6 in.) and 20 cm (8 in.). Spacers that can be inserted between the blocks and casings can create air gaps of thickness 0.64, 1.3, 1.9, and 2.5 cm (0.25, 0.5, 0.75 and 1.0 in.), simulating air gaps that can occur in actual wells from hole enlargements behind the casing

  12. Bayesian model calibration of computational models in velocimetry diagnosed dynamic compression experiments.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brown, Justin [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States); Hund, Lauren [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-02-01

    Dynamic compression experiments are being performed on complicated materials using increasingly complex drivers. The data produced in these experiments are beginning to reach a regime where traditional analysis techniques break down; requiring the solution of an inverse problem. A common measurement in dynamic experiments is an interface velocity as a function of time, and often this functional output can be simulated using a hydrodynamics code. Bayesian model calibration is a statistical framework to estimate inputs into a computational model in the presence of multiple uncertainties, making it well suited to measurements of this type. In this article, we apply Bayesian model calibration to high pressure (250 GPa) ramp compression measurements in tantalum. We address several issues speci c to this calibration including the functional nature of the output as well as parameter and model discrepancy identi ability. Speci cally, we propose scaling the likelihood function by an e ective sample size rather than modeling the autocorrelation function to accommodate the functional output and propose sensitivity analyses using the notion of `modularization' to assess the impact of experiment-speci c nuisance input parameters on estimates of material properties. We conclude that the proposed Bayesian model calibration procedure results in simple, fast, and valid inferences on the equation of state parameters for tantalum.

  13. Effect of calibration data series length on performance and optimal parameters of hydrological model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chuan-zhe Li

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In order to assess the effects of calibration data series length on the performance and optimal parameter values of a hydrological model in ungauged or data-limited catchments (data are non-continuous and fragmental in some catchments, we used non-continuous calibration periods for more independent streamflow data for SIMHYD (simple hydrology model calibration. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency and percentage water balance error were used as performance measures. The particle swarm optimization (PSO method was used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff models. Different lengths of data series ranging from one year to ten years, randomly sampled, were used to study the impact of calibration data series length. Fifty-five relatively unimpaired catchments located all over Australia with daily precipitation, potential evapotranspiration, and streamflow data were tested to obtain more general conclusions. The results show that longer calibration data series do not necessarily result in better model performance. In general, eight years of data are sufficient to obtain steady estimates of model performance and parameters for the SIMHYD model. It is also shown that most humid catchments require fewer calibration data to obtain a good performance and stable parameter values. The model performs better in humid and semi-humid catchments than in arid catchments. Our results may have useful and interesting implications for the efficiency of using limited observation data for hydrological model calibration in different climates.

  14. Estimating shallow groundwater recharge in the headwaters of the Liverpool Plains using SWAT

    OpenAIRE

    Sun, H.; Cornish, P.S.

    2005-01-01

    Metadata only record A physically based catchment model (SWAT) was used for recharge estimation in the headwaters of the Liverpool Plains in NSW, Australia. The study used water balance modelling at the catchment scale to derive parameters for long-term recharge estimation. The derived parameters were further assessed at a subcatchment scale. Modelling results suggest that recharge occurs only in wet years, and is dominated by a few significant years or periods. The results were matched by...

  15. Beyond discrimination: A comparison of calibration methods and clinical usefulness of predictive models of readmission risk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Colin G; Sharman, Kavya; Hripcsak, George

    2017-12-01

    Prior to implementing predictive models in novel settings, analyses of calibration and clinical usefulness remain as important as discrimination, but they are not frequently discussed. Calibration is a model's reflection of actual outcome prevalence in its predictions. Clinical usefulness refers to the utilities, costs, and harms of using a predictive model in practice. A decision analytic approach to calibrating and selecting an optimal intervention threshold may help maximize the impact of readmission risk and other preventive interventions. To select a pragmatic means of calibrating predictive models that requires a minimum amount of validation data and that performs well in practice. To evaluate the impact of miscalibration on utility and cost via clinical usefulness analyses. Observational, retrospective cohort study with electronic health record data from 120,000 inpatient admissions at an urban, academic center in Manhattan. The primary outcome was thirty-day readmission for three causes: all-cause, congestive heart failure, and chronic coronary atherosclerotic disease. Predictive modeling was performed via L1-regularized logistic regression. Calibration methods were compared including Platt Scaling, Logistic Calibration, and Prevalence Adjustment. Performance of predictive modeling and calibration was assessed via discrimination (c-statistic), calibration (Spiegelhalter Z-statistic, Root Mean Square Error [RMSE] of binned predictions, Sanders and Murphy Resolutions of the Brier Score, Calibration Slope and Intercept), and clinical usefulness (utility terms represented as costs). The amount of validation data necessary to apply each calibration algorithm was also assessed. C-statistics by diagnosis ranged from 0.7 for all-cause readmission to 0.86 (0.78-0.93) for congestive heart failure. Logistic Calibration and Platt Scaling performed best and this difference required analyzing multiple metrics of calibration simultaneously, in particular Calibration

  16. Calibration of the APEX Model to Simulate Management Practice Effects on Runoff, Sediment, and Phosphorus Loss.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhandari, Ammar B; Nelson, Nathan O; Sweeney, Daniel W; Baffaut, Claire; Lory, John A; Senaviratne, Anomaa; Pierzynski, Gary M; Janssen, Keith A; Barnes, Philip L

    2017-11-01

    Process-based computer models have been proposed as a tool to generate data for Phosphorus (P) Index assessment and development. Although models are commonly used to simulate P loss from agriculture using managements that are different from the calibration data, this use of models has not been fully tested. The objective of this study is to determine if the Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender (APEX) model can accurately simulate runoff, sediment, total P, and dissolved P loss from 0.4 to 1.5 ha of agricultural fields with managements that are different from the calibration data. The APEX model was calibrated with field-scale data from eight different managements at two locations (management-specific models). The calibrated models were then validated, either with the same management used for calibration or with different managements. Location models were also developed by calibrating APEX with data from all managements. The management-specific models resulted in satisfactory performance when used to simulate runoff, total P, and dissolved P within their respective systems, with > 0.50, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency > 0.30, and percent bias within ±35% for runoff and ±70% for total and dissolved P. When applied outside the calibration management, the management-specific models only met the minimum performance criteria in one-third of the tests. The location models had better model performance when applied across all managements compared with management-specific models. Our results suggest that models only be applied within the managements used for calibration and that data be included from multiple management systems for calibration when using models to assess management effects on P loss or evaluate P Indices. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  17. Soil Water and Temperature System (SWATS) Instrument Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, David R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-04-01

    The soil water and temperature system (SWATS) provides vertical profiles of soil temperature, soil-water potential, and soil moisture as a function of depth below the ground surface at hourly intervals. The temperature profiles are measured directly by in situ sensors at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The soil-water potential and soil moisture profiles are derived from measurements of soil temperature rise in response to small inputs of heat. Atmospheric scientists use the data in climate models to determine boundary conditions and to estimate the surface energy flux. The data are also useful to hydrologists, soil scientists, and agricultural scientists for determining the state of the soil.

  18. Automatic component calibration and error diagnostics for model-based accelerator control. Phase I final report

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carl Stern; Martin Lee

    1999-01-01

    Phase I work studied the feasibility of developing software for automatic component calibration and error correction in beamline optics models. A prototype application was developed that corrects quadrupole field strength errors in beamline models

  19. Automatic component calibration and error diagnostics for model-based accelerator control. Phase I final report

    CERN Document Server

    Carl-Stern

    1999-01-01

    Phase I work studied the feasibility of developing software for automatic component calibration and error correction in beamline optics models. A prototype application was developed that corrects quadrupole field strength errors in beamline models.

  20. Comparison of global optimization approaches for robust calibration of hydrologic model parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, I. W.

    2015-12-01

    Robustness of the calibrated parameters of hydrologic models is necessary to provide a reliable prediction of future performance of watershed behavior under varying climate conditions. This study investigated calibration performances according to the length of calibration period, objective functions, hydrologic model structures and optimization methods. To do this, the combination of three global optimization methods (i.e. SCE-UA, Micro-GA, and DREAM) and four hydrologic models (i.e. SAC-SMA, GR4J, HBV, and PRMS) was tested with different calibration periods and objective functions. Our results showed that three global optimization methods provided close calibration performances under different calibration periods, objective functions, and hydrologic models. However, using the agreement of index, normalized root mean square error, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency as the objective function showed better performance than using correlation coefficient and percent bias. Calibration performances according to different calibration periods from one year to seven years were hard to generalize because four hydrologic models have different levels of complexity and different years have different information content of hydrological observation. Acknowledgements This research was supported by a grant (14AWMP-B082564-01) from Advanced Water Management Research Program funded by Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport of Korean government.

  1. Genetic Algorithm Calibration of Probabilistic Cellular Automata for Modeling Mining Permit Activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louis, S.J.; Raines, G.L.

    2003-01-01

    We use a genetic algorithm to calibrate a spatially and temporally resolved cellular automata to model mining activity on public land in Idaho and western Montana. The genetic algorithm searches through a space of transition rule parameters of a two dimensional cellular automata model to find rule parameters that fit observed mining activity data. Previous work by one of the authors in calibrating the cellular automaton took weeks - the genetic algorithm takes a day and produces rules leading to about the same (or better) fit to observed data. These preliminary results indicate that genetic algorithms are a viable tool in calibrating cellular automata for this application. Experience gained during the calibration of this cellular automata suggests that mineral resource information is a critical factor in the quality of the results. With automated calibration, further refinements of how the mineral-resource information is provided to the cellular automaton will probably improve our model.

  2. The Value of Hydrograph Partitioning Curves for Calibrating Hydrological Models in Glacierized Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Zhihua; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Unger-Shayesteh, Katy; Gafurov, Abror; Kalashnikova, Olga; Omorova, Elvira; Merz, Bruno

    2018-03-01

    This study refines the method for calibrating a glacio-hydrological model based on Hydrograph Partitioning Curves (HPCs), and evaluates its value in comparison to multidata set optimization approaches which use glacier mass balance, satellite snow cover images, and discharge. The HPCs are extracted from the observed flow hydrograph using catchment precipitation and temperature gradients. They indicate the periods when the various runoff processes, such as glacier melt or snow melt, dominate the basin hydrograph. The annual cumulative curve of the difference between average daily temperature and melt threshold temperature over the basin, as well as the annual cumulative curve of average daily snowfall on the glacierized areas are used to identify the starting and end dates of snow and glacier ablation periods. Model parameters characterizing different runoff processes are calibrated on different HPCs in a stepwise and iterative way. Results show that the HPC-based method (1) delivers model-internal consistency comparably to the tri-data set calibration method; (2) improves the stability of calibrated parameter values across various calibration periods; and (3) estimates the contributions of runoff components similarly to the tri-data set calibration method. Our findings indicate the potential of the HPC-based approach as an alternative for hydrological model calibration in glacierized basins where other calibration data sets than discharge are often not available or very costly to obtain.

  3. Application of heuristic and machine-learning approach to engine model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jie; Ryu, Kwang R.; Newman, C. E.; Davis, George C.

    1993-03-01

    Automation of engine model calibration procedures is a very challenging task because (1) the calibration process searches for a goal state in a huge, continuous state space, (2) calibration is often a lengthy and frustrating task because of complicated mutual interference among the target parameters, and (3) the calibration problem is heuristic by nature, and often heuristic knowledge for constraining a search cannot be easily acquired from domain experts. A combined heuristic and machine learning approach has, therefore, been adopted to improve the efficiency of model calibration. We developed an intelligent calibration program called ICALIB. It has been used on a daily basis for engine model applications, and has reduced the time required for model calibrations from many hours to a few minutes on average. In this paper, we describe the heuristic control strategies employed in ICALIB such as a hill-climbing search based on a state distance estimation function, incremental problem solution refinement by using a dynamic tolerance window, and calibration target parameter ordering for guiding the search. In addition, we present the application of a machine learning program called GID3* for automatic acquisition of heuristic rules for ordering target parameters.

  4. Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Saeidifarzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.

  5. SWAT-MODSIM-PSO optimization of multi-crop planning in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran, under the impacts of climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fereidoon, Majid; Koch, Manfred

    2018-07-15

    Agriculture is one of the environmental/economic sectors that may adversely be affected by climate change, especially, in already nowadays water-scarce regions, like the Middle East. One way to cope with future changes in absolute as well as seasonal (irrigation) water amounts can be the adaptation of the agricultural crop pattern in a region, i.e. by planting crops which still provide high yields and so economic benefits to farmers under such varying climate conditions. To do this properly, the whole cascade starting from climate change, effects on hydrology and surface water availability, subsequent effects on crop yield, agricultural areas available, and, finally, economic value of a multi-crop cultivation pattern must be known. To that avail, a complex coupled simulation-optimization tool SWAT-LINGO-MODSIM-PSO (SLMP) has been developed here and used to find the future optimum cultivation area of crops for the maximization of the economic benefits in five irrigation-fed agricultural plains in the south of the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) southwest Iran. Starting with the SWAT distributed hydrological model, the KR-streamflow as well as the inflow into the Karkheh-reservoir, as the major storage of irrigation water, is calibrated and validated, based on 1985-2004 observed discharge data. In the subsequent step, the SWAT-predicted streamflow is fed into the MODSIM river basin Decision Support System to simulate and optimize the water allocation between different water users (agricultural, environmental, municipal and industrial) under standard operating policy (SOP) rules. The final step is the maximization of the economic benefit in the five agricultural plains through constrained PSO (particle swarm optimization) by adjusting the cultivation areas (decision variables) of different crops (wheat, barley, maize and "others"), taking into account their specific prizes and optimal crop yields under water deficiency, with the latter computed in the LINGO

  6. Development of a station based climate database for SWAT and APEX assessments in the U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Water quality simulation models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and Agricultural Policy EXtender (APEX) are widely used in the U.S. These models require large amounts of spatial and tabular data to simulate the natural world. Accurate and seamless daily climatic data are critical...

  7. Geomorphological hazards in Swat valley, Pakistan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Usman, A.

    1999-01-01

    This study attempts to describe, interpret and analyze, in depth, the varied geomorphological hazards and their impacts prevailing in the swat valley locate in the northern hilly and mountainous regions of Pakistan. The hills and mountains re zones of high geomorphological activity with rapid rates of weathering, active tectonic activities, abundant precipitation, rapid runoff and heavy sediment transport. Due to the varied topography, lithology, steep slope, erodible soil, heavy winter snowfall and intensive rainfall in the spring and summer seasons, several kinds of geomorphological hazards, such as geomorphic gravitational hazards, Fluvial hazards, Glacial hazards, Geo tectonic hazards, are occurring frequently in swat valley. Amongst them, geomorphic gravitational hazards, such as rock fall rock slide, debris slide mud flow avalanches, are major hazards in mountains and hills while fluvial hazards and sedimentation are mainly confined to the alluvial plain and lowlands of the valley. The Getechtonic hazards, on the other hand, have wide spread distribution in the valley the magnitude and occurrence of each king of hazard is thus, varied according to intensity of process and physical geographic environment. This paper discusses the type distribution and damage due to the various geomorphological hazards and their reduction treatments. The study would to be of particular importance and interest to both natural and social scientists, as well as planner, environmentalists and decision-makers for successful developmental interventions in the region. (author)

  8. Calibration of the 7—Equation Transition Model for High Reynolds Flows at Low Mach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colonia, S.; Leble, V.; Steijl, R.; Barakos, G.

    2016-09-01

    The numerical simulation of flows over large-scale wind turbine blades without considering the transition from laminar to fully turbulent flow may result in incorrect estimates of the blade loads and performance. Thanks to its relative simplicity and promising results, the Local-Correlation based Transition Modelling concept represents a valid way to include transitional effects into practical CFD simulations. However, the model involves coefficients that need tuning. In this paper, the γ—equation transition model is assessed and calibrated, for a wide range of Reynolds numbers at low Mach, as needed for wind turbine applications. An aerofoil is used to evaluate the original model and calibrate it; while a large scale wind turbine blade is employed to show that the calibrated model can lead to reliable solutions for complex three-dimensional flows. The calibrated model shows promising results for both two-dimensional and three-dimensional flows, even if cross-flow instabilities are neglected.

  9. Matching Images to Models: Camera Calibration for 3-D Surface Reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Robin D.; Smelyanskiy, Vadim N.; Cheeseman. Peter C.; Norvig, Peter (Technical Monitor)

    2001-01-01

    In a previous paper we described a system which recursively recovers a super-resolved three dimensional surface model from a set of images of the surface. In that paper we assumed that the camera calibration for each image was known. In this paper we solve two problems. Firstly, if an estimate of the surface is already known, the problem is to calibrate a new image relative to the existing surface model. Secondly, if no surface estimate is available, the relative camera calibration between the images in the set must be estimated. This will allow an initial surface model to be estimated. Results of both types of estimation are given.

  10. Effects of temporal and spatial resolution of calibration data on integrated hydrologic water quality model identification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jiang, Sanyuan; Jomaa, Seifeddine; Büttner, Olaf; Rode, Michael

    2014-05-01

    Hydrological water quality modeling is increasingly used for investigating runoff and nutrient transport processes as well as watershed management but it is mostly unclear how data availablity determins model identification. In this study, the HYPE (HYdrological Predictions for the Environment) model, which is a process-based, semi-distributed hydrological water quality model, was applied in two different mesoscale catchments (Selke (463 km2) and Weida (99 km2)) located in central Germany to simulate discharge and inorganic nitrogen (IN) transport. PEST and DREAM(ZS) were combined with the HYPE model to conduct parameter calibration and uncertainty analysis. Split-sample test was used for model calibration (1994-1999) and validation (1999-2004). IN concentration and daily IN load were found to be highly correlated with discharge, indicating that IN leaching is mainly controlled by runoff. Both dynamics and balances of water and IN load were well captured with NSE greater than 0.83 during validation period. Multi-objective calibration (calibrating hydrological and water quality parameters simultaneously) was found to outperform step-wise calibration in terms of model robustness. Multi-site calibration was able to improve model performance at internal sites, decrease parameter posterior uncertainty and prediction uncertainty. Nitrogen-process parameters calibrated using continuous daily averages of nitrate-N concentration observations produced better and more robust simulations of IN concentration and load, lower posterior parameter uncertainty and IN concentration prediction uncertainty compared to the calibration against uncontinuous biweekly nitrate-N concentration measurements. Both PEST and DREAM(ZS) are efficient in parameter calibration. However, DREAM(ZS) is more sound in terms of parameter identification and uncertainty analysis than PEST because of its capability to evolve parameter posterior distributions and estimate prediction uncertainty based on global

  11. A fundamental parameter-based calibration model for an intrinsic germanium X-ray fluorescence spectrometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Christensen, L.H.; Pind, N.

    1982-01-01

    A matrix-independent fundamental parameter-based calibration model for an energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometer has been developed. This model, which is part of a fundamental parameter approach quantification method, accounts for both the excitation and detection probability. For each secondary target a number of relative calibration constants are calculated on the basis of knowledge of the irradiation geometry, the detector specifications, and tabulated fundamental physical parameters. The absolute calibration of the spectrometer is performed by measuring one pure element standard per secondary target. For sample systems where all elements can be analyzed by means of the same secondary target the absolute calibration constant can be determined during the iterative solution of the basic equation. Calculated and experimentally determined relative calibration constants agree to within 5-10% of each other and so do the results obtained from the analysis of an NBS certified alloy using the two sets of constants. (orig.)

  12. PEST modules with regularization for the acceleration of the automatic calibration in hydrodynamic models

    OpenAIRE

    Polomčić, Dušan M.; Bajić, Dragoljub I.; Močević, Jelena M.

    2015-01-01

    The calibration process of hydrodynamic model is done usually manually by 'testing' with different values of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic characteristics of the boundary conditions. By using the PEST program, automatic calibration of models has been introduced, and it has proved to significantly reduce the subjective influence of the model creator on results. With the relatively new approach of PEST, i.e. with the introduction of so-called 'pilot points', the concept of homogeneou...

  13. FEST-C 1.3 & 2.0 for CMAQ Bi-directional NH3, Crop Production, and SWAT Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) is developed in a Linux environment, a festc JAVA interface that integrates 14 tools and scenario management options facilitating land use/crop data processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system ...

  14. New Methods for Kinematic Modelling and Calibration of Robots

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Søe-Knudsen, Rune

    2014-01-01

    the accuracy in an easy and accessible way. The required equipment is accessible, since the cost is held to a minimum and can be made with conventional processing equipment. Our first method calibrates the kinematics of a robot using known relative positions measured with the robot itself and a plate...... with holes matching the robot tool flange. The second method calibrates the kinematics using two robots. This method allows the robots to carry out the collection of measurements and the adjustment, by themselves, after the robots have been connected. Furthermore, we also propose a method for restoring......Improving a robot's accuracy increases its ability to solve certain tasks, and is therefore valuable. Practical ways of achieving this improved accuracy, even after robot repair, is also valuable. In this work, we introduce methods that improve the robot's accuracy and make it possible to maintain...

  15. Validation and calibration of structural models that combine information from multiple sources.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahabreh, Issa J; Wong, John B; Trikalinos, Thomas A

    2017-02-01

    Mathematical models that attempt to capture structural relationships between their components and combine information from multiple sources are increasingly used in medicine. Areas covered: We provide an overview of methods for model validation and calibration and survey studies comparing alternative approaches. Expert commentary: Model validation entails a confrontation of models with data, background knowledge, and other models, and can inform judgments about model credibility. Calibration involves selecting parameter values to improve the agreement of model outputs with data. When the goal of modeling is quantitative inference on the effects of interventions or forecasting, calibration can be viewed as estimation. This view clarifies issues related to parameter identifiability and facilitates formal model validation and the examination of consistency among different sources of information. In contrast, when the goal of modeling is the generation of qualitative insights about the modeled phenomenon, calibration is a rather informal process for selecting inputs that result in model behavior that roughly reproduces select aspects of the modeled phenomenon and cannot be equated to an estimation procedure. Current empirical research on validation and calibration methods consists primarily of methodological appraisals or case-studies of alternative techniques and cannot address the numerous complex and multifaceted methodological decisions that modelers must make. Further research is needed on different approaches for developing and validating complex models that combine evidence from multiple sources.

  16. Uncertainty modelling and code calibration for composite materials

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Toft, Henrik Stensgaard; Branner, Kim; Mishnaevsky, Leon, Jr

    2013-01-01

    and measurement uncertainties which are introduced on the different scales. Typically, these uncertainties are taken into account in the design process using characteristic values and partial safety factors specified in a design standard. The value of the partial safety factors should reflect a reasonable balance...... to wind turbine blades are calibrated for two typical lay-ups using a large number of load cases and ratios between the aerodynamic forces and the inertia forces....

  17. A Low Cost Calibration Method for Urban Drainage Models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Michael R.; Thorndahl, Søren; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2008-01-01

    The calibration of the hydrological reduction coefficient is examined for a small catchment. The objective is to determine the hydrological reduction coefficient, which is used for describing how much of the precipitation which falls on impervious areas, that actually ends up in the sewer...... to what can be found with intensive in-sewer measurement of rain and runoff. The results also clearly indicate that there is a large variation in hydrological reduction coefficient between different rain events....

  18. Sensitivity of Calibrated Parameters and Water Resource Estimates on Different Objective Functions and Optimization Algorithms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Delaram Houshmand Kouchi

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available The successful application of hydrological models relies on careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. However, there are many different calibration/uncertainty analysis algorithms, and each could be run with different objective functions. In this paper, we highlight the fact that each combination of optimization algorithm-objective functions may lead to a different set of optimum parameters, while having the same performance; this makes the interpretation of dominant hydrological processes in a watershed highly uncertain. We used three different optimization algorithms (SUFI-2, GLUE, and PSO, and eight different objective functions (R2, bR2, NSE, MNS, RSR, SSQR, KGE, and PBIAS in a SWAT model to calibrate the monthly discharges in two watersheds in Iran. The results show that all three algorithms, using the same objective function, produced acceptable calibration results; however, with significantly different parameter ranges. Similarly, an algorithm using different objective functions also produced acceptable calibration results, but with different parameter ranges. The different calibrated parameter ranges consequently resulted in significantly different water resource estimates. Hence, the parameters and the outputs that they produce in a calibrated model are “conditioned” on the choices of the optimization algorithm and objective function. This adds another level of non-negligible uncertainty to watershed models, calling for more attention and investigation in this area.

  19. Step wise, multiple objective calibration of a hydrologic model for a snowmelt dominated basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hay, L.E.; Leavesley, G.H.; Clark, M.P.; Markstrom, S.L.; Viger, R.J.; Umemoto, M.

    2006-01-01

    The ability to apply a hydrologic model to large numbers of basins for forecasting purposes requires a quick and effective calibration strategy. This paper presents a step wise, multiple objective, automated procedure for hydrologic model calibration. This procedure includes the sequential calibration of a model's simulation of solar radiation (SR), potential evapotranspiration (PET), water balance, and daily runoff. The procedure uses the Shuffled Complex Evolution global search algorithm to calibrate the U.S. Geological Survey's Precipitation Runoff Modeling System in the Yampa River basin of Colorado. This process assures that intermediate states of the model (SR and PET on a monthly mean basis), as well as the water balance and components of the daily hydrograph are simulated, consistently with measured values.

  20. Modelování průtoků a vybraných parametrů jakosti vod na povodí Jenínského potoka modelem SWAT

    OpenAIRE

    HOMOLKA, Jan

    2014-01-01

    The thesis continues with the bachelor thesis which had dealt with preparation bases for simulation draining and carrying materials in SWAT model. Simulation should have been realized within basin of the Jenín stream, which watershed is 4,65 km2 large. SWAT model is primary developed for the larger watersheds where simulated values doesn't attain tolerances. Because of this is thesis focused on the methodic of simulation itself, discussion of the problem when is SWAT model almost useless for ...

  1. A Fundamental Parameter-Based Calibration Model for an Intrinsic Germanium X-Ray Fluorescence Spectrometer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Leif Højslet; Pind, Niels

    1982-01-01

    A matrix-independent fundamental parameter-based calibration model for an energy-dispersive X-ray fluorescence spectrometer has been developed. This model, which is part of a fundamental parameter approach quantification method, accounts for both the excitation and detection probability. For each...... secondary target a number of relative calibration constants are calculated on the basis of knowledge of the irradiation geometry, the detector specifications, and tabulated fundamental physical parameters. The absolute calibration of the spectrometer is performed by measuring one pure element standard per...

  2. Influence of smoothing of X-ray spectra on parameters of calibration model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Antoniak, W.; Urbanski, P.; Kowalska, E.

    1998-01-01

    Parameters of the calibration model before and after smoothing of X-ray spectra have been investigated. The calibration model was calculated using multivariate procedure - namely the partial least square regression (PLS). Investigations have been performed on an example of six sets of various standards used for calibration of some instruments based on X-ray fluorescence principle. The smoothing methods were compared: regression splines, Savitzky-Golay and Discrete Fourier Transform. The calculations were performed using a software package MATLAB and some home-made programs. (author)

  3. An Open-Source Auto-Calibration Routine Supporting the Stormwater Management Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tiernan, E. D.; Hodges, B. R.

    2017-12-01

    The stormwater management model (SWMM) is a clustered model that relies on subcatchment-averaged parameter assignments to correctly capture catchment stormwater runoff behavior. Model calibration is considered a critical step for SWMM performance, an arduous task that most stormwater management designers undertake manually. This research presents an open-source, automated calibration routine that increases the efficiency and accuracy of the model calibration process. The routine makes use of a preliminary sensitivity analysis to reduce the dimensions of the parameter space, at which point a multi-objective function, genetic algorithm (modified Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm II) determines the Pareto front for the objective functions within the parameter space. The solutions on this Pareto front represent the optimized parameter value sets for the catchment behavior that could not have been reasonably obtained through manual calibration.

  4. Calibration and validation of a model describing complete autotrophic nitrogen removal in a granular SBR system

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vangsgaard, Anna Katrine; Mutlu, Ayten Gizem; Gernaey, Krist

    2013-01-01

    BACKGROUND: A validated model describing the nitritation-anammox process in a granular sequencing batch reactor (SBR) system is an important tool for: a) design of future experiments and b) prediction of process performance during optimization, while applying process control, or during system scale......-up. RESULTS: A model was calibrated using a step-wise procedure customized for the specific needs of the system. The important steps in the procedure were initialization, steady-state and dynamic calibration, and validation. A fast and effective initialization approach was developed to approximate pseudo...... screening of the parameter space proposed by Sin et al. (2008) - to find the best fit of the model to dynamic data. Finally, the calibrated model was validated with an independent data set. CONCLUSION: The presented calibration procedure is the first customized procedure for this type of system...

  5. Modeling, Calibration and Control for Extreme-Precision MEMS Deformable Mirrors, Phase I

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Iris AO will develop electromechanical models and actuator calibration methods to enable open-loop control of MEMS deformable mirrors (DMs) with unprecedented...

  6. Nested sampling algorithm for subsurface flow model selection, uncertainty quantification, and nonlinear calibration

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, A. H.; Wheeler, M. F.; Hoteit, Ibrahim

    2013-01-01

    Calibration of subsurface flow models is an essential step for managing ground water aquifers, designing of contaminant remediation plans, and maximizing recovery from hydrocarbon reservoirs. We investigate an efficient sampling algorithm known

  7. Radiolytic modelling of spent fuel oxidative dissolution mechanism. Calibration against UO2 dynamic leaching experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Merino, J.; Cera, E.; Bruno, J.; Quinones, J.; Casas, I.; Clarens, F.; Gimenez, J.; Pablo, J. de; Rovira, M.; Martinez-Esparza, A.

    2005-01-01

    Calibration and testing are inherent aspects of any modelling exercise and consequently they are key issues in developing a model for the oxidative dissolution of spent fuel. In the present work we present the outcome of the calibration process for the kinetic constants of a UO 2 oxidative dissolution mechanism developed for using in a radiolytic model. Experimental data obtained in dynamic leaching experiments of unirradiated UO 2 has been used for this purpose. The iterative calibration process has provided some insight into the detailed mechanism taking place in the alteration of UO 2 , particularly the role of · OH radicals and their interaction with the carbonate system. The results show that, although more simulations are needed for testing in different experimental systems, the calibrated oxidative dissolution mechanism could be included in radiolytic models to gain confidence in the prediction of the long-term alteration rate of the spent fuel under repository conditions

  8. Evaluation of Uncertainties in hydrogeological modeling and groundwater flow analyses. Model calibration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ijiri, Yuji; Ono, Makoto; Sugihara, Yutaka; Shimo, Michito; Yamamoto, Hajime; Fumimura, Kenichi

    2003-03-01

    This study involves evaluation of uncertainty in hydrogeological modeling and groundwater flow analysis. Three-dimensional groundwater flow in Shobasama site in Tono was analyzed using two continuum models and one discontinuous model. The domain of this study covered area of four kilometers in east-west direction and six kilometers in north-south direction. Moreover, for the purpose of evaluating how uncertainties included in modeling of hydrogeological structure and results of groundwater simulation decreased with progress of investigation research, updating and calibration of the models about several modeling techniques of hydrogeological structure and groundwater flow analysis techniques were carried out, based on the information and knowledge which were newly acquired. The acquired knowledge is as follows. As a result of setting parameters and structures in renewal of the models following to the circumstances by last year, there is no big difference to handling between modeling methods. The model calibration is performed by the method of matching numerical simulation with observation, about the pressure response caused by opening and closing of a packer in MIU-2 borehole. Each analysis technique attains reducing of residual sum of squares of observations and results of numerical simulation by adjusting hydrogeological parameters. However, each model adjusts different parameters as water conductivity, effective porosity, specific storage, and anisotropy. When calibrating models, sometimes it is impossible to explain the phenomena only by adjusting parameters. In such case, another investigation may be required to clarify details of hydrogeological structure more. As a result of comparing research from beginning to this year, the following conclusions are obtained about investigation. (1) The transient hydraulic data are effective means in reducing the uncertainty of hydrogeological structure. (2) Effective porosity for calculating pore water velocity of

  9. Improvement, calibration and validation of a distributed hydrological model over France

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Quintana Seguí

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available The hydrometeorological model SAFRAN-ISBA-MODCOU (SIM computes water and energy budgets on the land surface and riverflows and the level of several aquifers at the scale of France. SIM is composed of a meteorological analysis system (SAFRAN, a land surface model (ISBA, and a hydrogeological model (MODCOU. In this study, an exponential profile of hydraulic conductivity at saturation is introduced to the model and its impact analysed. It is also studied how calibration modifies the performance of the model. A very simple method of calibration is implemented and applied to the parameters of hydraulic conductivity and subgrid runoff. The study shows that a better description of the hydraulic conductivity of the soil is important to simulate more realistic discharges. It also shows that the calibrated model is more robust than the original SIM. In fact, the calibration mainly affects the processes related to the dynamics of the flow (drainage and runoff, and the rest of relevant processes (like evaporation remain stable. It is also proven that it is only worth introducing the new empirical parameterization of hydraulic conductivity if it is accompanied by a calibration of its parameters, otherwise the simulations can be degraded. In conclusion, it is shown that the new parameterization is necessary to obtain good simulations. Calibration is a tool that must be used to improve the performance of distributed models like SIM that have some empirical parameters.

  10. Predictive sensor based x-ray calibration using a physical model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fuente, Matias de la; Lutz, Peter; Wirtz, Dieter C.; Radermacher, Klaus

    2007-01-01

    Many computer assisted surgery systems are based on intraoperative x-ray images. To achieve reliable and accurate results these images have to be calibrated concerning geometric distortions, which can be distinguished between constant distortions and distortions caused by magnetic fields. Instead of using an intraoperative calibration phantom that has to be visible within each image resulting in overlaying markers, the presented approach directly takes advantage of the physical background of the distortions. Based on a computed physical model of an image intensifier and a magnetic field sensor, an online compensation of distortions can be achieved without the need of an intraoperative calibration phantom. The model has to be adapted once to each specific image intensifier through calibration, which is based on an optimization algorithm systematically altering the physical model parameters, until a minimal error is reached. Once calibrated, the model is able to predict the distortions caused by the measured magnetic field vector and build an appropriate dewarping function. The time needed for model calibration is not yet optimized and takes up to 4 h on a 3 GHz CPU. In contrast, the time needed for distortion correction is less than 1 s and therefore absolutely acceptable for intraoperative use. First evaluations showed that by using the model based dewarping algorithm the distortions of an XRII with a 21 cm FOV could be significantly reduced. The model was able to predict and compensate distortions by approximately 80% to a remaining error of 0.45 mm (max) (0.19 mm rms)

  11. The effects of model complexity and calibration period on groundwater recharge simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moeck, Christian; Van Freyberg, Jana; Schirmer, Mario

    2017-04-01

    A significant number of groundwater recharge models exist that vary in terms of complexity (i.e., structure and parametrization). Typically, model selection and conceptualization is very subjective and can be a key source of uncertainty in the recharge simulations. Another source of uncertainty is the implicit assumption that model parameters, calibrated over historical periods, are also valid for the simulation period. To the best of our knowledge there is no systematic evaluation of the effect of the model complexity and calibration strategy on the performance of recharge models. To address this gap, we utilized a long-term recharge data set (20 years) from a large weighting lysimeter. We performed a differential split sample test with four groundwater recharge models that vary in terms of complexity. They were calibrated using six calibration periods with climatically contrasting conditions in a constrained Monte Carlo approach. Despite the climatically contrasting conditions, all models performed similarly well during the calibration. However, during validation a clear effect of the model structure on model performance was evident. The more complex, physically-based models predicted recharge best, even when calibration and prediction periods had very different climatic conditions. In contrast, more simplistic soil-water balance and lumped model performed poorly under such conditions. For these models we found a strong dependency on the chosen calibration period. In particular, our analysis showed that this can have relevant implications when using recharge models as decision-making tools in a broad range of applications (e.g. water availability, climate change impact studies, water resource management, etc.).

  12. Sensitivity analysis for hydrology and pesticide supply towards the river in SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holvoet, K.; van Griensven, A.; Seuntjens, P.; Vanrolleghem, P. A.

    The dynamic behaviour of pesticides in river systems strongly depends on varying climatological conditions and agricultural management practices. To describe this behaviour at the river-basin scale, integrated hydrological and water quality models are needed. A crucial step in understanding the various processes determining pesticide fate is to perform a sensitivity analysis. Sensitivity analysis for hydrology and pesticide supply in SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) will provide useful support for the development of a reliable hydrological model and will give insight in which parameters are most sensitive concerning pesticide supply towards rivers. The study was performed on the Nil catchment in Belgium. In this study we utilised an LH-OAT sensitivity analysis. The LH-OAT method combines the One-factor-At-a-Time (OAT) design and Latin Hypercube (LH) sampling by taking the Latin Hypercube samples as initial points for an OAT design. By means of the LH-OAT sensitivity analysis, the dominant hydrological parameters were determined and a reduction of the number of model parameters was performed. Dominant hydrological parameters were the curve number (CN2), the surface runoff lag (surlag), the recharge to deep aquifer (rchrg_dp) and the threshold depth of water in the shallow aquifer (GWQMN). Next, the selected parameters were estimated by manual calibration. Hereby, the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of efficiency improved from an initial value of -22.4 to +0.53. In the second part, sensitivity analyses were performed to provide insight in which parameters or model inputs contribute most to variance in pesticide output. The results of this study show that for the Nil catchment, hydrologic parameters are dominant in controlling pesticide predictions. The other parameter that affects pesticide concentrations in surface water is ‘apfp_pest’, which meaning was changed into a parameter that controls direct losses to the river system (e.g., through the clean up of spray

  13. Multivariate Calibration Models for Sorghum Composition using Near-Infrared Spectroscopy

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wolfrum, E.; Payne, C.; Stefaniak, T.; Rooney, W.; Dighe, N.; Bean, B.; Dahlberg, J.

    2013-03-01

    NREL developed calibration models based on near-infrared (NIR) spectroscopy coupled with multivariate statistics to predict compositional properties relevant to cellulosic biofuels production for a variety of sorghum cultivars. A robust calibration population was developed in an iterative fashion. The quality of models developed using the same sample geometry on two different types of NIR spectrometers and two different sample geometries on the same spectrometer did not vary greatly.

  14. [Outlier sample discriminating methods for building calibration model in melons quality detecting using NIR spectra].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Hai-Qing; Wang, Chun-Guang; Zhang, Hai-Jun; Yu, Zhi-Hong; Li, Jian-Kang

    2012-11-01

    Outlier samples strongly influence the precision of the calibration model in soluble solids content measurement of melons using NIR Spectra. According to the possible sources of outlier samples, three methods (predicted concentration residual test; Chauvenet test; leverage and studentized residual test) were used to discriminate these outliers respectively. Nine suspicious outliers were detected from calibration set which including 85 fruit samples. Considering the 9 suspicious outlier samples maybe contain some no-outlier samples, they were reclaimed to the model one by one to see whether they influence the model and prediction precision or not. In this way, 5 samples which were helpful to the model joined in calibration set again, and a new model was developed with the correlation coefficient (r) 0. 889 and root mean square errors for calibration (RMSEC) 0.6010 Brix. For 35 unknown samples, the root mean square errors prediction (RMSEP) was 0.854 degrees Brix. The performance of this model was more better than that developed with non outlier was eliminated from calibration set (r = 0.797, RMSEC= 0.849 degrees Brix, RMSEP = 1.19 degrees Brix), and more representative and stable with all 9 samples were eliminated from calibration set (r = 0.892, RMSEC = 0.605 degrees Brix, RMSEP = 0.862 degrees).

  15. Our calibrated model has poor predictive value: An example from the petroleum industry

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carter, J.N.; Ballester, P.J.; Tavassoli, Z.; King, P.R.

    2006-01-01

    It is often assumed that once a model has been calibrated to measurements then it will have some level of predictive capability, although this may be limited. If the model does not have predictive capability then the assumption is that the model needs to be improved in some way. Using an example from the petroleum industry, we show that cases can exit where calibrated models have limited predictive capability. This occurs even when there is no modelling error present. It is also shown that the introduction of a small modelling error can make it impossible to obtain any models with useful predictive capability. We have been unable to find ways of identifying which calibrated models will have some predictive capacity and those which will not

  16. Our calibrated model has poor predictive value: An example from the petroleum industry

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carter, J.N. [Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)]. E-mail: j.n.carter@ic.ac.uk; Ballester, P.J. [Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College, London (United Kingdom); Tavassoli, Z. [Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College, London (United Kingdom); King, P.R. [Department of Earth Science and Engineering, Imperial College, London (United Kingdom)

    2006-10-15

    It is often assumed that once a model has been calibrated to measurements then it will have some level of predictive capability, although this may be limited. If the model does not have predictive capability then the assumption is that the model needs to be improved in some way. Using an example from the petroleum industry, we show that cases can exit where calibrated models have limited predictive capability. This occurs even when there is no modelling error present. It is also shown that the introduction of a small modelling error can make it impossible to obtain any models with useful predictive capability. We have been unable to find ways of identifying which calibrated models will have some predictive capacity and those which will not.

  17. Efficient Calibration of Distributed Catchment Models Using Perceptual Understanding and Hydrologic Signatures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hutton, C.; Wagener, T.; Freer, J. E.; Duffy, C.; Han, D.

    2015-12-01

    Distributed models offer the potential to resolve catchment systems in more detail, and therefore simulate the hydrological impacts of spatial changes in catchment forcing (e.g. landscape change). Such models may contain a large number of model parameters which are computationally expensive to calibrate. Even when calibration is possible, insufficient data can result in model parameter and structural equifinality. In order to help reduce the space of feasible models and supplement traditional outlet discharge calibration data, semi-quantitative information (e.g. knowledge of relative groundwater levels), may also be used to identify behavioural models when applied to constrain spatially distributed predictions of states and fluxes. The challenge is to combine these different sources of information together to identify a behavioural region of state-space, and efficiently search a large, complex parameter space to identify behavioural parameter sets that produce predictions that fall within this behavioural region. Here we present a methodology to incorporate different sources of data to efficiently calibrate distributed catchment models. Metrics of model performance may be derived from multiple sources of data (e.g. perceptual understanding and measured or regionalised hydrologic signatures). For each metric, an interval or inequality is used to define the behaviour of the catchment system, accounting for data uncertainties. These intervals are then combined to produce a hyper-volume in state space. The state space is then recast as a multi-objective optimisation problem, and the Borg MOEA is applied to first find, and then populate the hyper-volume, thereby identifying acceptable model parameter sets. We apply the methodology to calibrate the PIHM model at Plynlimon, UK by incorporating perceptual and hydrologic data into the calibration problem. Furthermore, we explore how to improve calibration efficiency through search initialisation from shorter model runs.

  18. SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff - a Vietnam river basin study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, M. T.; Raghavan, S. V.; Liong, S. Y.

    2012-08-01

    Many research studies that focus on basin hydrology have applied the SWAT model using station data to simulate runoff. But over regions lacking robust station data, there is a problem of applying the model to study the hydrological responses. For some countries and remote areas, the rainfall data availability might be a constraint due to many different reasons such as lacking of technology, war time and financial limitation that lead to difficulty in constructing the runoff data. To overcome such a limitation, this research study uses some of the available globally gridded high resolution precipitation datasets to simulate runoff. Five popular gridded observation precipitation datasets: (1) Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE), (2) Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), (3) Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN), (4) Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP), (5) a modified version of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN2) and one reanalysis dataset, National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR) are used to simulate runoff over the Dak Bla river (a small tributary of the Mekong River) in Vietnam. Wherever possible, available station data are also used for comparison. Bilinear interpolation of these gridded datasets is used to input the precipitation data at the closest grid points to the station locations. Sensitivity Analysis and Auto-calibration are performed for the SWAT model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and Coefficient of Determination (R2) indices are used to benchmark the model performance. Results indicate that the APHRODITE dataset performed very well on a daily scale simulation of discharge having a good NSE of 0.54 and R2 of 0.55, when compared to the discharge simulation using station data (0.68 and 0.71). The GPCP proved to be the

  19. SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff – a Vietnam river basin study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Vu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Many research studies that focus on basin hydrology have applied the SWAT model using station data to simulate runoff. But over regions lacking robust station data, there is a problem of applying the model to study the hydrological responses. For some countries and remote areas, the rainfall data availability might be a constraint due to many different reasons such as lacking of technology, war time and financial limitation that lead to difficulty in constructing the runoff data. To overcome such a limitation, this research study uses some of the available globally gridded high resolution precipitation datasets to simulate runoff. Five popular gridded observation precipitation datasets: (1 Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE, (2 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, (3 Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN, (4 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, (5 a modified version of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN2 and one reanalysis dataset, National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR are used to simulate runoff over the Dak Bla river (a small tributary of the Mekong River in Vietnam. Wherever possible, available station data are also used for comparison. Bilinear interpolation of these gridded datasets is used to input the precipitation data at the closest grid points to the station locations. Sensitivity Analysis and Auto-calibration are performed for the SWAT model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Coefficient of Determination (R2 indices are used to benchmark the model performance. Results indicate that the APHRODITE dataset performed very well on a daily scale simulation of discharge having a good NSE of 0.54 and R2 of 0.55, when compared to the discharge simulation using station data (0

  20. Calibration of Mine Ventilation Network Models Using the Non-Linear Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guang Xu

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Effective ventilation planning is vital to underground mining. To ensure stable operation of the ventilation system and to avoid airflow disorder, mine ventilation network (MVN models have been widely used in simulating and optimizing the mine ventilation system. However, one of the challenges for MVN model simulation is that the simulated airflow distribution results do not match the measured data. To solve this problem, a simple and effective calibration method is proposed based on the non-linear optimization algorithm. The calibrated model not only makes simulated airflow distribution results in accordance with the on-site measured data, but also controls the errors of other parameters within a minimum range. The proposed method was then applied to calibrate an MVN model in a real case, which is built based on ventilation survey results and Ventsim software. Finally, airflow simulation experiments are carried out respectively using data before and after calibration, whose results were compared and analyzed. This showed that the simulated airflows in the calibrated model agreed much better to the ventilation survey data, which verifies the effectiveness of calibrating method.

  1. More efficient evolutionary strategies for model calibration with watershed model for demonstration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggett, J. S.; Skahill, B. E.

    2008-12-01

    Evolutionary strategies allow automatic calibration of more complex models than traditional gradient based approaches, but they are more computationally intensive. We present several efficiency enhancements for evolution strategies, many of which are not new, but when combined have been shown to dramatically decrease the number of model runs required for calibration of synthetic problems. To reduce the number of expensive model runs we employ a surrogate objective function for an adaptively determined fraction of the population at each generation (Kern et al., 2006). We demonstrate improvements to the adaptive ranking strategy that increase its efficiency while sacrificing little reliability and further reduce the number of model runs required in densely sampled parts of parameter space. Furthermore, we include a gradient individual in each generation that is usually not selected when the search is in a global phase or when the derivatives are poorly approximated, but when selected near a smooth local minimum can dramatically increase convergence speed (Tahk et al., 2007). Finally, the selection of the gradient individual is used to adapt the size of the population near local minima. We show, by incorporating these enhancements into the Covariance Matrix Adaption Evolution Strategy (CMAES; Hansen, 2006), that their synergetic effect is greater than their individual parts. This hybrid evolutionary strategy exploits smooth structure when it is present but degrades to an ordinary evolutionary strategy, at worst, if smoothness is not present. Calibration of 2D-3D synthetic models with the modified CMAES requires approximately 10%-25% of the model runs of ordinary CMAES. Preliminary demonstration of this hybrid strategy will be shown for watershed model calibration problems. Hansen, N. (2006). The CMA Evolution Strategy: A Comparing Review. In J.A. Lozano, P. Larrañga, I. Inza and E. Bengoetxea (Eds.). Towards a new evolutionary computation. Advances in estimation of

  2. A hierarchical analysis of terrestrial ecosystem model Biome-BGC: Equilibrium analysis and model calibration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Thornton, Peter E [ORNL; Wang, Weile [ORNL; Law, Beverly E. [Oregon State University; Nemani, Ramakrishna R [NASA Ames Research Center

    2009-01-01

    The increasing complexity of ecosystem models represents a major difficulty in tuning model parameters and analyzing simulated results. To address this problem, this study develops a hierarchical scheme that simplifies the Biome-BGC model into three functionally cascaded tiers and analyzes them sequentially. The first-tier model focuses on leaf-level ecophysiological processes; it simulates evapotranspiration and photosynthesis with prescribed leaf area index (LAI). The restriction on LAI is then lifted in the following two model tiers, which analyze how carbon and nitrogen is cycled at the whole-plant level (the second tier) and in all litter/soil pools (the third tier) to dynamically support the prescribed canopy. In particular, this study analyzes the steady state of these two model tiers by a set of equilibrium equations that are derived from Biome-BGC algorithms and are based on the principle of mass balance. Instead of spinning-up the model for thousands of climate years, these equations are able to estimate carbon/nitrogen stocks and fluxes of the target (steady-state) ecosystem directly from the results obtained by the first-tier model. The model hierarchy is examined with model experiments at four AmeriFlux sites. The results indicate that the proposed scheme can effectively calibrate Biome-BGC to simulate observed fluxes of evapotranspiration and photosynthesis; and the carbon/nitrogen stocks estimated by the equilibrium analysis approach are highly consistent with the results of model simulations. Therefore, the scheme developed in this study may serve as a practical guide to calibrate/analyze Biome-BGC; it also provides an efficient way to solve the problem of model spin-up, especially for applications over large regions. The same methodology may help analyze other similar ecosystem models as well.

  3. Using genetic algorithm and TOPSIS for Xinanjiang model calibration with a single procedure

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Chun-Tian; Zhao, Ming-Yan; Chau, K. W.; Wu, Xin-Yu

    2006-01-01

    Genetic Algorithm (GA) is globally oriented in searching and thus useful in optimizing multiobjective problems, especially where the objective functions are ill-defined. Conceptual rainfall-runoff models that aim at predicting streamflow from the knowledge of precipitation over a catchment have become a basic tool for flood forecasting. The parameter calibration of a conceptual model usually involves the multiple criteria for judging the performances of observed data. However, it is often difficult to derive all objective functions for the parameter calibration problem of a conceptual model. Thus, a new method to the multiple criteria parameter calibration problem, which combines GA with TOPSIS (technique for order performance by similarity to ideal solution) for Xinanjiang model, is presented. This study is an immediate further development of authors' previous research (Cheng, C.T., Ou, C.P., Chau, K.W., 2002. Combining a fuzzy optimal model with a genetic algorithm to solve multi-objective rainfall-runoff model calibration. Journal of Hydrology, 268, 72-86), whose obvious disadvantages are to split the whole procedure into two parts and to become difficult to integrally grasp the best behaviors of model during the calibration procedure. The current method integrates the two parts of Xinanjiang rainfall-runoff model calibration together, simplifying the procedures of model calibration and validation and easily demonstrated the intrinsic phenomenon of observed data in integrity. Comparison of results with two-step procedure shows that the current methodology gives similar results to the previous method, is also feasible and robust, but simpler and easier to apply in practice.

  4. Nonlinear propagation model for ultrasound hydrophones calibration in the frequency range up to 100 MHz.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Radulescu, E G; Wójcik, J; Lewin, P A; Nowicki, A

    2003-06-01

    To facilitate the implementation and verification of the new ultrasound hydrophone calibration techniques described in the companion paper (somewhere in this issue) a nonlinear propagation model was developed. A brief outline of the theoretical considerations is presented and the model's advantages and disadvantages are discussed. The results of simulations yielding spatial and temporal acoustic pressure amplitude are also presented and compared with those obtained using KZK and Field II models. Excellent agreement between all models is evidenced. The applicability of the model in discrete wideband calibration of hydrophones is documented in the companion paper somewhere in this volume.

  5. Modelling Machine Tools using Structure Integrated Sensors for Fast Calibration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Benjamin Montavon

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Monitoring of the relative deviation between commanded and actual tool tip position, which limits the volumetric performance of the machine tool, enables the use of contemporary methods of compensation to reduce tolerance mismatch and the uncertainties of on-machine measurements. The development of a primarily optical sensor setup capable of being integrated into the machine structure without limiting its operating range is presented. The use of a frequency-modulating interferometer and photosensitive arrays in combination with a Gaussian laser beam allows for fast and automated online measurements of the axes’ motion errors and thermal conditions with comparable accuracy, lower cost, and smaller dimensions as compared to state-of-the-art optical measuring instruments for offline machine tool calibration. The development is tested through simulation of the sensor setup based on raytracing and Monte-Carlo techniques.

  6. Evaluating watershed protection programs in New York City's Cannonsville Reservoir source watershed using SWAT-HS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, L.; Mukundan, R.; Moore, K. E.; Owens, E. M.; Steenhuis, T. S.

    2017-12-01

    New York City (NYC)'s reservoirs supply over one billion gallons of drinking water each day to over nine million consumers in NYC and upstate communities. The City has invested more than $1.5 billion in watershed protection programs to maintain a waiver from filtration for the Catskill and Delaware Systems. In the last 25 years, the NYC Department of Environmental Protection (NYCDEP) has implemented programs in cooperation with upstate communities that include nutrient management, crop rotations, improvement of barnyards and manure storage, implementing tertiary treatment for Phosphorus (P) in wastewater treatment plants, and replacing failed septic systems in an effort to reduce P loads to water supply reservoirs. There have been several modeling studies evaluating the effect of agricultural Best Management Practices (BMPs) on P control in the Cannonsville watershed in the Delaware System. Although these studies showed that BMPs would reduce dissolved P losses, they were limited to farm-scale or watershed-scale estimates of reduction factors without consideration of the dynamic nature of overland flow and P losses from variable source areas. Recently, we developed the process-based SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS) model, a modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) that can realistically predict variable source runoff processes. The objective of this study is to use the SWAT-HS model to evaluate watershed protection programs addressing both point and non-point sources of P. SWAT-HS predicts streamflow very well for the Cannonsville watershed with a daily Nash Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) of 0.85 at the watershed outlet and NSE values ranging from 0.56 - 0.82 at five other locations within the watershed. Based on good hydrological prediction, we applied the model to predict P loads using detailed P inputs that change over time due to the implementation of watershed protection programs. Results from P model predictions provide improved projections of P

  7. Calibration and validation of earthquake catastrophe models. Case study: Impact Forecasting Earthquake Model for Algeria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trendafiloski, G.; Gaspa Rebull, O.; Ewing, C.; Podlaha, A.; Magee, B.

    2012-04-01

    Calibration and validation are crucial steps in the production of the catastrophe models for the insurance industry in order to assure the model's reliability and to quantify its uncertainty. Calibration is needed in all components of model development including hazard and vulnerability. Validation is required to ensure that the losses calculated by the model match those observed in past events and which could happen in future. Impact Forecasting, the catastrophe modelling development centre of excellence within Aon Benfield, has recently launched its earthquake model for Algeria as a part of the earthquake model for the Maghreb region. The earthquake model went through a detailed calibration process including: (1) the seismic intensity attenuation model by use of macroseismic observations and maps from past earthquakes in Algeria; (2) calculation of the country-specific vulnerability modifiers by use of past damage observations in the country. The use of Benouar, 1994 ground motion prediction relationship was proven as the most appropriate for our model. Calculation of the regional vulnerability modifiers for the country led to 10% to 40% larger vulnerability indexes for different building types compared to average European indexes. The country specific damage models also included aggregate damage models for residential, commercial and industrial properties considering the description of the buildings stock given by World Housing Encyclopaedia and the local rebuilding cost factors equal to 10% for damage grade 1, 20% for damage grade 2, 35% for damage grade 3, 75% for damage grade 4 and 100% for damage grade 5. The damage grades comply with the European Macroseismic Scale (EMS-1998). The model was validated by use of "as-if" historical scenario simulations of three past earthquake events in Algeria M6.8 2003 Boumerdes, M7.3 1980 El-Asnam and M7.3 1856 Djidjelli earthquake. The calculated return periods of the losses for client market portfolio align with the

  8. Modeling and Calibration of a Novel One-Mirror Galvanometric Laser Scanner

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chengyi Yu

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A laser stripe sensor has limited application when a point cloud of geometric samples on the surface of the object needs to be collected, so a galvanometric laser scanner is designed by using a one-mirror galvanometer element as its mechanical device to drive the laser stripe to sweep along the object. A novel mathematical model is derived for the proposed galvanometer laser scanner without any position assumptions and then a model-driven calibration procedure is proposed. Compared with available model-driven approaches, the influence of machining and assembly errors is considered in the proposed model. Meanwhile, a plane-constraint-based approach is proposed to extract a large number of calibration points effectively and accurately to calibrate the galvanometric laser scanner. Repeatability and accuracy of the galvanometric laser scanner are evaluated on the automobile production line to verify the efficiency and accuracy of the proposed calibration method. Experimental results show that the proposed calibration approach yields similar measurement performance compared with a look-up table calibration method.

  9. CALIBRATING THE JOHNSON-HOLMQUIST CERAMIC MODEL FOR SIC USING CTH

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cazamias, J. U.; Bilyk, S. R.

    2009-01-01

    The Johnson-Holmquist ceramic material model has been calibrated and successfully applied to numerically simulate ballistic events using the Lagrangian code EPIC. While the majority of the constants are ''physics'' based, two of the constants for the failed material response are calibrated using ballistic experiments conducted on a confined cylindrical ceramic target. The maximum strength of the failed ceramic is calibrated by matching the penetration velocity. The second refers to the equivalent plastic strain at failure under constant pressure and is calibrated using the dwell time. Use of these two constants in the CTH Eulerian hydrocode does not predict the ballistic response. This difference may be due to the phenomenological nature of the model and the different numerical schemes used by the codes. This paper determines the aforementioned material constants for SiC suitable for simulating ballistic events using CTH.

  10. A case study on robust optimal experimental design for model calibration of ω-Transaminase

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Daele, Timothy, Van; Van Hauwermeiren, Daan; Ringborg, Rolf Hoffmeyer

    the experimental space. However, it is expected that more informative experiments can be designed to increase the confidence of the parameter estimates. Therefore, we apply Optimal Experimental Design (OED) to the calibrated model of Shin and Kim (1998). The total number of samples was retained to allow fair......” parameter values are not known before finishing the model calibration. However, it is important that the chosen parameter values are close to the real parameter values, otherwise the OED can possibly yield non-informative experiments. To counter this problem, one can use robust OED. The idea of robust OED......Proper calibration of models describing enzyme kinetics can be quite challenging. This is especially the case for more complex models like transaminase models (Shin and Kim, 1998). The latter fitted model parameters, but the confidence on the parameter estimation was not derived. Hence...

  11. Radiometric modeling and calibration of the Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) ground based measurement experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, Jialin; Smith, William L.; Gazarik, Michael J.

    2008-12-01

    The ultimate remote sensing benefits of the high resolution Infrared radiance spectrometers will be realized with their geostationary satellite implementation in the form of imaging spectrometers. This will enable dynamic features of the atmosphere's thermodynamic fields and pollutant and greenhouse gas constituents to be observed for revolutionary improvements in weather forecasts and more accurate air quality and climate predictions. As an important step toward realizing this application objective, the Geostationary Imaging Fourier Transform Spectrometer (GIFTS) Engineering Demonstration Unit (EDU) was successfully developed under the NASA New Millennium Program, 2000-2006. The GIFTS-EDU instrument employs three focal plane arrays (FPAs), which gather measurements across the long-wave IR (LWIR), short/mid-wave IR (SMWIR), and visible spectral bands. The GIFTS calibration is achieved using internal blackbody calibration references at ambient (260 K) and hot (286 K) temperatures. In this paper, we introduce a refined calibration technique that utilizes Principle Component (PC) analysis to compensate for instrument distortions and artifacts, therefore, enhancing the absolute calibration accuracy. This method is applied to data collected during the GIFTS Ground Based Measurement (GBM) experiment, together with simultaneous observations by the accurately calibrated AERI (Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer), both simultaneously zenith viewing the sky through the same external scene mirror at ten-minute intervals throughout a cloudless day at Logan Utah on September 13, 2006. The accurately calibrated GIFTS radiances are produced using the first four PC scores in the GIFTS-AERI regression model. Temperature and moisture profiles retrieved from the PC-calibrated GIFTS radiances are verified against radiosonde measurements collected throughout the GIFTS sky measurement period. Using the GIFTS GBM calibration model, we compute the calibrated radiances from data

  12. Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

    2015-04-01

    A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

  13. The Wally plot approach to assess the calibration of clinical prediction models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanche, Paul; Gerds, Thomas A; Ekstrøm, Claus T

    2017-12-06

    A prediction model is calibrated if, roughly, for any percentage x we can expect that x subjects out of 100 experience the event among all subjects that have a predicted risk of x%. Typically, the calibration assumption is assessed graphically but in practice it is often challenging to judge whether a "disappointing" calibration plot is the consequence of a departure from the calibration assumption, or alternatively just "bad luck" due to sampling variability. We propose a graphical approach which enables the visualization of how much a calibration plot agrees with the calibration assumption to address this issue. The approach is mainly based on the idea of generating new plots which mimic the available data under the calibration assumption. The method handles the common non-trivial situations in which the data contain censored observations and occurrences of competing events. This is done by building on ideas from constrained non-parametric maximum likelihood estimation methods. Two examples from large cohort data illustrate our proposal. The 'wally' R package is provided to make the methodology easily usable.

  14. Evaluation of Automated Model Calibration Techniques for Residential Building Energy Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    and Ben Polly, Joseph Robertson [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Polly, Ben [National Renewable Energy Lab. (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Collis, Jon [Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO (United States)

    2013-09-01

    This simulation study adapts and applies the general framework described in BESTEST-EX (Judkoff et al 2010) for self-testing residential building energy model calibration methods. BEopt/DOE-2.2 is used to evaluate four mathematical calibration methods in the context of monthly, daily, and hourly synthetic utility data for a 1960's-era existing home in a cooling-dominated climate. The home's model inputs are assigned probability distributions representing uncertainty ranges, random selections are made from the uncertainty ranges to define "explicit" input values, and synthetic utility billing data are generated using the explicit input values. The four calibration methods evaluated in this study are: an ASHRAE 1051-RP-based approach (Reddy and Maor 2006), a simplified simulated annealing optimization approach, a regression metamodeling optimization approach, and a simple output ratio calibration approach. The calibration methods are evaluated for monthly, daily, and hourly cases; various retrofit measures are applied to the calibrated models and the methods are evaluated based on the accuracy of predicted savings, computational cost, repeatability, automation, and ease of implementation.

  15. Evaluation of Automated Model Calibration Techniques for Residential Building Energy Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Robertson, J.; Polly, B.; Collis, J.

    2013-09-01

    This simulation study adapts and applies the general framework described in BESTEST-EX (Judkoff et al 2010) for self-testing residential building energy model calibration methods. BEopt/DOE-2.2 is used to evaluate four mathematical calibration methods in the context of monthly, daily, and hourly synthetic utility data for a 1960's-era existing home in a cooling-dominated climate. The home's model inputs are assigned probability distributions representing uncertainty ranges, random selections are made from the uncertainty ranges to define 'explicit' input values, and synthetic utility billing data are generated using the explicit input values. The four calibration methods evaluated in this study are: an ASHRAE 1051-RP-based approach (Reddy and Maor 2006), a simplified simulated annealing optimization approach, a regression metamodeling optimization approach, and a simple output ratio calibration approach. The calibration methods are evaluated for monthly, daily, and hourly cases; various retrofit measures are applied to the calibrated models and the methods are evaluated based on the accuracy of predicted savings, computational cost, repeatability, automation, and ease of implementation.

  16. On the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixtures through experimental data, and the design of predictive models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karagiannis, Georgios; Lin, Guang

    2017-08-01

    For many real systems, several computer models may exist with different physics and predictive abilities. To achieve more accurate simulations/predictions, it is desirable for these models to be properly combined and calibrated. We propose the Bayesian calibration of computer model mixture method which relies on the idea of representing the real system output as a mixture of the available computer model outputs with unknown input dependent weight functions. The method builds a fully Bayesian predictive model as an emulator for the real system output by combining, weighting, and calibrating the available models in the Bayesian framework. Moreover, it fits a mixture of calibrated computer models that can be used by the domain scientist as a mean to combine the available computer models, in a flexible and principled manner, and perform reliable simulations. It can address realistic cases where one model may be more accurate than the others at different input values because the mixture weights, indicating the contribution of each model, are functions of the input. Inference on the calibration parameters can consider multiple computer models associated with different physics. The method does not require knowledge of the fidelity order of the models. We provide a technique able to mitigate the computational overhead due to the consideration of multiple computer models that is suitable to the mixture model framework. We implement the proposed method in a real-world application involving the Weather Research and Forecasting large-scale climate model.

  17. Intercomparison of hydrological model structures and calibration approaches in climate scenario impact projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vansteenkiste, Thomas; Tavakoli, Mohsen; Ntegeka, Victor; De Smedt, Florimond; Batelaan, Okke; Pereira, Fernando; Willems, Patrick

    2014-11-01

    The objective of this paper is to investigate the effects of hydrological model structure and calibration on climate change impact results in hydrology. The uncertainty in the hydrological impact results is assessed by the relative change in runoff volumes and peak and low flow extremes from historical and future climate conditions. The effect of the hydrological model structure is examined through the use of five hydrological models with different spatial resolutions and process descriptions. These were applied to a medium sized catchment in Belgium. The models vary from the lumped conceptual NAM, PDM and VHM models over the intermediate detailed and distributed WetSpa model to the fully distributed MIKE SHE model. The latter model accounts for the 3D groundwater processes and interacts bi-directionally with a full hydrodynamic MIKE 11 river model. After careful and manual calibration of these models, accounting for the accuracy of the peak and low flow extremes and runoff subflows, and the changes in these extremes for changing rainfall conditions, the five models respond in a similar way to the climate scenarios over Belgium. Future projections on peak flows are highly uncertain with expected increases as well as decreases depending on the climate scenario. The projections on future low flows are more uniform; low flows decrease (up to 60%) for all models and for all climate scenarios. However, the uncertainties in the impact projections are high, mainly in the dry season. With respect to the model structural uncertainty, the PDM model simulates significantly higher runoff peak flows under future wet scenarios, which is explained by its specific model structure. For the low flow extremes, the MIKE SHE model projects significantly lower low flows in dry scenario conditions in comparison to the other models, probably due to its large difference in process descriptions for the groundwater component, the groundwater-river interactions. The effect of the model

  18. Nitrous oxide emissions from cropland: a procedure for calibrating the DayCent biogeochemical model using inverse modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rafique, Rashad; Fienen, Michael N.; Parkin, Timothy B.; Anex, Robert P.

    2013-01-01

    DayCent is a biogeochemical model of intermediate complexity widely used to simulate greenhouse gases (GHG), soil organic carbon and nutrients in crop, grassland, forest and savannah ecosystems. Although this model has been applied to a wide range of ecosystems, it is still typically parameterized through a traditional “trial and error” approach and has not been calibrated using statistical inverse modelling (i.e. algorithmic parameter estimation). The aim of this study is to establish and demonstrate a procedure for calibration of DayCent to improve estimation of GHG emissions. We coupled DayCent with the parameter estimation (PEST) software for inverse modelling. The PEST software can be used for calibration through regularized inversion as well as model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis. The DayCent model was analysed and calibrated using N2O flux data collected over 2 years at the Iowa State University Agronomy and Agricultural Engineering Research Farms, Boone, IA. Crop year 2003 data were used for model calibration and 2004 data were used for validation. The optimization of DayCent model parameters using PEST significantly reduced model residuals relative to the default DayCent parameter values. Parameter estimation improved the model performance by reducing the sum of weighted squared residual difference between measured and modelled outputs by up to 67 %. For the calibration period, simulation with the default model parameter values underestimated mean daily N2O flux by 98 %. After parameter estimation, the model underestimated the mean daily fluxes by 35 %. During the validation period, the calibrated model reduced sum of weighted squared residuals by 20 % relative to the default simulation. Sensitivity analysis performed provides important insights into the model structure providing guidance for model improvement.

  19. Identifying influential data points in hydrological model calibration and their impact on streamflow predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wright, David; Thyer, Mark; Westra, Seth

    2015-04-01

    Highly influential data points are those that have a disproportionately large impact on model performance, parameters and predictions. However, in current hydrological modelling practice the relative influence of individual data points on hydrological model calibration is not commonly evaluated. This presentation illustrates and evaluates several influence diagnostics tools that hydrological modellers can use to assess the relative influence of data. The feasibility and importance of including influence detection diagnostics as a standard tool in hydrological model calibration is discussed. Two classes of influence diagnostics are evaluated: (1) computationally demanding numerical "case deletion" diagnostics; and (2) computationally efficient analytical diagnostics, based on Cook's distance. These diagnostics are compared against hydrologically orientated diagnostics that describe changes in the model parameters (measured through the Mahalanobis distance), performance (objective function displacement) and predictions (mean and maximum streamflow). These influence diagnostics are applied to two case studies: a stage/discharge rating curve model, and a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (GR4J). Removing a single data point from the calibration resulted in differences to mean flow predictions of up to 6% for the rating curve model, and differences to mean and maximum flow predictions of up to 10% and 17%, respectively, for the hydrological model. When using the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency in calibration, the computationally cheaper Cook's distance metrics produce similar results to the case-deletion metrics at a fraction of the computational cost. However, Cooks distance is adapted from linear regression with inherit assumptions on the data and is therefore less flexible than case deletion. Influential point detection diagnostics show great potential to improve current hydrological modelling practices by identifying highly influential data points. The findings of this

  20. Calibration of uncertain inputs to computer models using experimentally measured quantities and the BMARS emulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stripling, H.F.; McClarren, R.G.; Kuranz, C.C.; Grosskopf, M.J.; Rutter, E.; Torralva, B.R.

    2011-01-01

    We present a method for calibrating the uncertain inputs to a computer model using available experimental data. The goal of the procedure is to produce posterior distributions of the uncertain inputs such that when samples from the posteriors are used as inputs to future model runs, the model is more likely to replicate (or predict) the experimental response. The calibration is performed by sampling the space of the uncertain inputs, using the computer model (or, more likely, an emulator for the computer model) to assign weights to the samples, and applying the weights to produce the posterior distributions and generate predictions of new experiments within confidence bounds. The method is similar to the Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) calibration methods with independent sampling with the exception that we generate samples beforehand and replace the candidate acceptance routine with a weighting scheme. We apply our method to the calibration of a Hyades 2D model of laser energy deposition in beryllium. We employ a Bayesian Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (BMARS) emulator as a surrogate for Hyades 2D. We treat a range of uncertainties in our system, including uncertainties in the experimental inputs, experimental measurement error, and systematic experimental timing errors. The results of the calibration are posterior distributions that both agree with intuition and improve the accuracy and decrease the uncertainty in experimental predictions. (author)

  1. A system-theory-based model for monthly river runoff forecasting: model calibration and optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Jianhua

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available River runoff is not only a crucial part of the global water cycle, but it is also an important source for hydropower and an essential element of water balance. This study presents a system-theory-based model for river runoff forecasting taking the Hailiutu River as a case study. The forecasting model, designed for the Hailiutu watershed, was calibrated and verified by long-term precipitation observation data and groundwater exploitation data from the study area. Additionally, frequency analysis, taken as an optimization technique, was applied to improve prediction accuracy. Following model optimization, the overall relative prediction errors are below 10%. The system-theory-based prediction model is applicable to river runoff forecasting, and following optimization by frequency analysis, the prediction error is acceptable.

  2. Procedure for the Selection and Validation of a Calibration Model I-Description and Application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Desharnais, Brigitte; Camirand-Lemyre, Félix; Mireault, Pascal; Skinner, Cameron D

    2017-05-01

    Calibration model selection is required for all quantitative methods in toxicology and more broadly in bioanalysis. This typically involves selecting the equation order (quadratic or linear) and weighting factor correctly modelizing the data. A mis-selection of the calibration model will generate lower quality control (QC) accuracy, with an error up to 154%. Unfortunately, simple tools to perform this selection and tests to validate the resulting model are lacking. We present a stepwise, analyst-independent scheme for selection and validation of calibration models. The success rate of this scheme is on average 40% higher than a traditional "fit and check the QCs accuracy" method of selecting the calibration model. Moreover, the process was completely automated through a script (available in Supplemental Data 3) running in RStudio (free, open-source software). The need for weighting was assessed through an F-test using the variances of the upper limit of quantification and lower limit of quantification replicate measurements. When weighting was required, the choice between 1/x and 1/x2 was determined by calculating which option generated the smallest spread of weighted normalized variances. Finally, model order was selected through a partial F-test. The chosen calibration model was validated through Cramer-von Mises or Kolmogorov-Smirnov normality testing of the standardized residuals. Performance of the different tests was assessed using 50 simulated data sets per possible calibration model (e.g., linear-no weight, quadratic-no weight, linear-1/x, etc.). This first of two papers describes the tests, procedures and outcomes of the developed procedure using real LC-MS-MS results for the quantification of cocaine and naltrexone. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  3. Calibration of a distributed hydrologic model for six European catchments using remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stisen, S.; Demirel, M. C.; Mendiguren González, G.; Kumar, R.; Rakovec, O.; Samaniego, L. E.

    2017-12-01

    While observed streamflow has been the single reference for most conventional hydrologic model calibration exercises, the availability of spatially distributed remote sensing observations provide new possibilities for multi-variable calibration assessing both spatial and temporal variability of different hydrologic processes. In this study, we first identify the key transfer parameters of the mesoscale Hydrologic Model (mHM) controlling both the discharge and the spatial distribution of actual evapotranspiration (AET) across six central European catchments (Elbe, Main, Meuse, Moselle, Neckar and Vienne). These catchments are selected based on their limited topographical and climatic variability which enables to evaluate the effect of spatial parameterization on the simulated evapotranspiration patterns. We develop a European scale remote sensing based actual evapotranspiration dataset at a 1 km grid scale driven primarily by land surface temperature observations from MODIS using the TSEB approach. Using the observed AET maps we analyze the potential benefits of incorporating spatial patterns from MODIS data to calibrate the mHM model. This model allows calibrating one-basin-at-a-time or all-basins-together using its unique structure and multi-parameter regionalization approach. Results will indicate any tradeoffs between spatial pattern and discharge simulation during model calibration and through validation against independent internal discharge locations. Moreover, added value on internal water balances will be analyzed.

  4. Nested sampling algorithm for subsurface flow model selection, uncertainty quantification, and nonlinear calibration

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, A. H.

    2013-12-01

    Calibration of subsurface flow models is an essential step for managing ground water aquifers, designing of contaminant remediation plans, and maximizing recovery from hydrocarbon reservoirs. We investigate an efficient sampling algorithm known as nested sampling (NS), which can simultaneously sample the posterior distribution for uncertainty quantification, and estimate the Bayesian evidence for model selection. Model selection statistics, such as the Bayesian evidence, are needed to choose or assign different weights to different models of different levels of complexities. In this work, we report the first successful application of nested sampling for calibration of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems. The estimated Bayesian evidence by the NS algorithm is used to weight different parameterizations of the subsurface flow models (prior model selection). The results of the numerical evaluation implicitly enforced Occam\\'s razor where simpler models with fewer number of parameters are favored over complex models. The proper level of model complexity was automatically determined based on the information content of the calibration data and the data mismatch of the calibrated model.

  5. Calibration and analysis of genome-based models for microbial ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louca, Stilianos; Doebeli, Michael

    2015-10-16

    Microbial ecosystem modeling is complicated by the large number of unknown parameters and the lack of appropriate calibration tools. Here we present a novel computational framework for modeling microbial ecosystems, which combines genome-based model construction with statistical analysis and calibration to experimental data. Using this framework, we examined the dynamics of a community of Escherichia coli strains that emerged in laboratory evolution experiments, during which an ancestral strain diversified into two coexisting ecotypes. We constructed a microbial community model comprising the ancestral and the evolved strains, which we calibrated using separate monoculture experiments. Simulations reproduced the successional dynamics in the evolution experiments, and pathway activation patterns observed in microarray transcript profiles. Our approach yielded detailed insights into the metabolic processes that drove bacterial diversification, involving acetate cross-feeding and competition for organic carbon and oxygen. Our framework provides a missing link towards a data-driven mechanistic microbial ecology.

  6. Multi-site calibration, validation, and sensitivity analysis of the MIKE SHE Model for a large watershed in northern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    S. Wang; Z. Zhang; G. Sun; P. Strauss; J. Guo; Y. Tang; A. Yao

    2012-01-01

    Model calibration is essential for hydrologic modeling of large watersheds in a heterogeneous mountain environment. Little guidance is available for model calibration protocols for distributed models that aim at capturing the spatial variability of hydrologic processes. This study used the physically-based distributed hydrologic model, MIKE SHE, to contrast a lumped...

  7. Understanding the Day Cent model: Calibration, sensitivity, and identifiability through inverse modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Necpálová, Magdalena; Anex, Robert P.; Fienen, Michael N.; Del Grosso, Stephen J.; Castellano, Michael J.; Sawyer, John E.; Iqbal, Javed; Pantoja, Jose L.; Barker, Daniel W.

    2015-01-01

    The ability of biogeochemical ecosystem models to represent agro-ecosystems depends on their correct integration with field observations. We report simultaneous calibration of 67 DayCent model parameters using multiple observation types through inverse modeling using the PEST parameter estimation software. Parameter estimation reduced the total sum of weighted squared residuals by 56% and improved model fit to crop productivity, soil carbon, volumetric soil water content, soil temperature, N2O, and soil3NO− compared to the default simulation. Inverse modeling substantially reduced predictive model error relative to the default model for all model predictions, except for soil 3NO− and 4NH+. Post-processing analyses provided insights into parameter–observation relationships based on parameter correlations, sensitivity and identifiability. Inverse modeling tools are shown to be a powerful way to systematize and accelerate the process of biogeochemical model interrogation, improving our understanding of model function and the underlying ecosystem biogeochemical processes that they represent.

  8. Verification Techniques for Parameter Selection and Bayesian Model Calibration Presented for an HIV Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wentworth, Mami Tonoe

    Uncertainty quantification plays an important role when making predictive estimates of model responses. In this context, uncertainty quantification is defined as quantifying and reducing uncertainties, and the objective is to quantify uncertainties in parameter, model and measurements, and propagate the uncertainties through the model, so that one can make a predictive estimate with quantified uncertainties. Two of the aspects of uncertainty quantification that must be performed prior to propagating uncertainties are model calibration and parameter selection. There are several efficient techniques for these processes; however, the accuracy of these methods are often not verified. This is the motivation for our work, and in this dissertation, we present and illustrate verification frameworks for model calibration and parameter selection in the context of biological and physical models. First, HIV models, developed and improved by [2, 3, 8], describe the viral infection dynamics of an HIV disease. These are also used to make predictive estimates of viral loads and T-cell counts and to construct an optimal control for drug therapy. Estimating input parameters is an essential step prior to uncertainty quantification. However, not all the parameters are identifiable, implying that they cannot be uniquely determined by the observations. These unidentifiable parameters can be partially removed by performing parameter selection, a process in which parameters that have minimal impacts on the model response are determined. We provide verification techniques for Bayesian model calibration and parameter selection for an HIV model. As an example of a physical model, we employ a heat model with experimental measurements presented in [10]. A steady-state heat model represents a prototypical behavior for heat conduction and diffusion process involved in a thermal-hydraulic model, which is a part of nuclear reactor models. We employ this simple heat model to illustrate verification

  9. Calibrated Blade-Element/Momentum Theory Aerodynamic Model of the MARIN Stock Wind Turbine: Preprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Goupee, A.; Kimball, R.; de Ridder, E. J.; Helder, J.; Robertson, A.; Jonkman, J.

    2015-04-02

    In this paper, a calibrated blade-element/momentum theory aerodynamic model of the MARIN stock wind turbine is developed and documented. The model is created using open-source software and calibrated to closely emulate experimental data obtained by the DeepCwind Consortium using a genetic algorithm optimization routine. The provided model will be useful for those interested in validating interested in validating floating wind turbine numerical simulators that rely on experiments utilizing the MARIN stock wind turbine—for example, the International Energy Agency Wind Task 30’s Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration Continued, with Correlation project.

  10. Stochastic Modeling of Overtime Occupancy and Its Application in Building Energy Simulation and Calibration

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sun, Kaiyu; Yan, Da; Hong, Tianzhen; Guo, Siyue

    2014-02-28

    Overtime is a common phenomenon around the world. Overtime drives both internal heat gains from occupants, lighting and plug-loads, and HVAC operation during overtime periods. Overtime leads to longer occupancy hours and extended operation of building services systems beyond normal working hours, thus overtime impacts total building energy use. Current literature lacks methods to model overtime occupancy because overtime is stochastic in nature and varies by individual occupants and by time. To address this gap in the literature, this study aims to develop a new stochastic model based on the statistical analysis of measured overtime occupancy data from an office building. A binomial distribution is used to represent the total number of occupants working overtime, while an exponential distribution is used to represent the duration of overtime periods. The overtime model is used to generate overtime occupancy schedules as an input to the energy model of a second office building. The measured and simulated cooling energy use during the overtime period is compared in order to validate the overtime model. A hybrid approach to energy model calibration is proposed and tested, which combines ASHRAE Guideline 14 for the calibration of the energy model during normal working hours, and a proposed KS test for the calibration of the energy model during overtime. The developed stochastic overtime model and the hybrid calibration approach can be used in building energy simulations to improve the accuracy of results, and better understand the characteristics of overtime in office buildings.

  11. Visible spectroscopy calibration transfer model in determining pH of Sala mangoes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yahaya, O.K.M.; MatJafri, M.Z.; Aziz, A.A.; Omar, A.F.

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this study is to compare the efficiency of calibration transfer procedures between three spectrometers involving two Ocean Optics Inc. spectrometers, namely, QE65000 and Jaz, and also, ASD FieldSpec 3 in measuring the pH of Sala mango by visible reflectance spectroscopy. This study evaluates the ability of these spectrometers in measuring the pH of Sala mango by applying similar calibration algorithms through direct calibration transfer. This visible reflectance spectroscopy technique defines a spectrometer as a master instrument and another spectrometer as a slave. The multiple linear regression (MLR) of calibration model generated using the QE65000 spectrometer is transferred to the Jaz spectrometer and vice versa for Set 1. The same technique is applied for Set 2 with QE65000 spectrometer is transferred to the FieldSpec3 spectrometer and vice versa. For Set 1, the result showed that the QE65000 spectrometer established a calibration model with higher accuracy than that of the Jaz spectrometer. In addition, the calibration model developed on Jaz spectrometer successfully predicted the pH of Sala mango, which was measured using QE65000 spectrometer, with a root means square error of prediction RMSEP = 0.092 pH and coefficients of determination R 2  = 0.892. Moreover, the best prediction result is obtained for Set 2 when the calibration model developed on QE65000 spectrometer is successfully transferred to FieldSpec 3 with R 2  = 0.839 and RMSEP = 0.16 pH

  12. Innovative Calibration Method for System Level Simulation Models of Internal Combustion Engines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ivo Prah

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available The paper outlines a procedure for the computer-controlled calibration of the combined zero-dimensional (0D and one-dimensional (1D thermodynamic simulation model of a turbocharged internal combustion engine (ICE. The main purpose of the calibration is to determine input parameters of the simulation model in such a way as to achieve the smallest difference between the results of the measurements and the results of the numerical simulations with minimum consumption of the computing time. An innovative calibration methodology is based on a novel interaction between optimization methods and physically based methods of the selected ICE sub-systems. Therein physically based methods were used for steering the division of the integral ICE to several sub-models and for determining parameters of selected components considering their governing equations. Innovative multistage interaction between optimization methods and physically based methods allows, unlike the use of well-established methods that rely only on the optimization techniques, for successful calibration of a large number of input parameters with low time consumption. Therefore, the proposed method is suitable for efficient calibration of simulation models of advanced ICEs.

  13. PEST modules with regularization for the acceleration of the automatic calibration in hydrodynamic models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polomčić Dušan M.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The calibration process of hydrodynamic model is done usually manually by 'testing' with different values of hydrogeological parameters and hydraulic characteristics of the boundary conditions. By using the PEST program, automatic calibration of models has been introduced, and it has proved to significantly reduce the subjective influence of the model creator on results. With the relatively new approach of PEST, i.e. with the introduction of so-called 'pilot points', the concept of homogeneous zones with parameter values of porous media or zones with the given boundary conditions has been outdated. However, the consequence of this kind of automatic calibration is that a significant amount of time is required to perform the calculation. The duration of calibration is measured in hours, sometimes even days. PEST contains two modules for the shortening of that process - Parallel PEST and BeoPEST. The paper presents performed experiments and analysis of different cases of PEST module usage, based on which the reduction in the time required to calibrate the model is done.

  14. How does observation uncertainty influence which stream water samples are most informative for model calibration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Ling; van Meerveld, Ilja; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Streamflow isotope samples taken during rainfall-runoff events are very useful for multi-criteria model calibration because they can help decrease parameter uncertainty and improve internal model consistency. However, the number of samples that can be collected and analysed is often restricted by practical and financial constraints. It is, therefore, important to choose an appropriate sampling strategy and to obtain samples that have the highest information content for model calibration. We used the Birkenes hydrochemical model and synthetic rainfall, streamflow and isotope data to explore which samples are most informative for model calibration. Starting with error-free observations, we investigated how many samples are needed to obtain a certain model fit. Based on different parameter sets, representing different catchments, and different rainfall events, we also determined which sampling times provide the most informative data for model calibration. Our results show that simulation performance for models calibrated with the isotopic data from two intelligently selected samples was comparable to simulations based on isotopic data for all 100 time steps. The models calibrated with the intelligently selected samples also performed better than the model calibrations with two benchmark sampling strategies (random selection and selection based on hydrologic information). Surprisingly, samples on the rising limb and at the peak were less informative than expected and, generally, samples taken at the end of the event were most informative. The timing of the most informative samples depends on the proportion of different flow components (baseflow, slow response flow, fast response flow and overflow). For events dominated by baseflow and slow response flow, samples taken at the end of the event after the fast response flow has ended were most informative; when the fast response flow was dominant, samples taken near the peak were most informative. However when overflow

  15. Diagnosing the impact of alternative calibration strategies on coupled hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, T. J.; Perera, C.; Corrigan, C.

    2017-12-01

    Hydrologic models represent a significant tool for understanding, predicting, and responding to the impacts of water on society and society on water resources and, as such, are used extensively in water resources planning and management. Given this important role, the validity and fidelity of hydrologic models is imperative. While extensive focus has been paid to improving hydrologic models through better process representation, better parameter estimation, and better uncertainty quantification, significant challenges remain. In this study, we explore a number of competing model calibration scenarios for simple, coupled snowmelt-runoff models to better understand the sensitivity / variability of parameterizations and its impact on model performance, robustness, fidelity, and transferability. Our analysis highlights the sensitivity of coupled snowmelt-runoff model parameterizations to alterations in calibration approach, underscores the concept of information content in hydrologic modeling, and provides insight into potential strategies for improving model robustness / fidelity.

  16. Bayesian calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models: a study of advanced Markov chain Monte Carlo methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Dan; Ricciuto, Daniel; Walker, Anthony; Safta, Cosmin; Munger, William

    2017-09-01

    Calibration of terrestrial ecosystem models is important but challenging. Bayesian inference implemented by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) sampling provides a comprehensive framework to estimate model parameters and associated uncertainties using their posterior distributions. The effectiveness and efficiency of the method strongly depend on the MCMC algorithm used. In this work, a differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) algorithm is used to estimate posterior distributions of 21 parameters for the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model using 14 years of daily net ecosystem exchange data collected at the Harvard Forest Environmental Measurement Site eddy-flux tower. The calibration of DREAM results in a better model fit and predictive performance compared to the popular adaptive Metropolis (AM) scheme. Moreover, DREAM indicates that two parameters controlling autumn phenology have multiple modes in their posterior distributions while AM only identifies one mode. The application suggests that DREAM is very suitable to calibrate complex terrestrial ecosystem models, where the uncertain parameter size is usually large and existence of local optima is always a concern. In addition, this effort justifies the assumptions of the error model used in Bayesian calibration according to the residual analysis. The result indicates that a heteroscedastic, correlated, Gaussian error model is appropriate for the problem, and the consequent constructed likelihood function can alleviate the underestimation of parameter uncertainty that is usually caused by using uncorrelated error models.

  17. Calibration of a user-defined mine blast model in LSDYNA and comparison with ale simultions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Verreault, J.; Leerdam, P.J.C.; Weerheijm, J.

    2016-01-01

    The calibration of a user-defined blast model implemented in LS-DYNA is presented using full-scale test rig experiments, partly according to the NATO STANAG 4569 AEP-55 Volume 2 specifications where the charge weight varies between 6 kg and 10 kg and the burial depth is 100 mm and deeper. The model

  18. Development of Semi-distributed ecohydrological model in the Rio Grande De Manati River Basin, Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setegn, S. G.; Ortiz, J.; Melendez, J.; Barreto, M.; Torres-Perez, J. L.; Guild, L. S.

    2015-12-01

    There are limited studies in Puerto Rico that shows the water resources availability and variability with respect to changing climates and land use. The main goal of the HICE-PR (Human Impacts to Coastal Ecosystems in Puerto Rico (HICE-PR): the Río Loco Watershed (southwest coast PR) project which was funded by NASA is to evaluate the impacts of land use/land cover changes on the quality and extent of coastal and marine ecosystems (CMEs) in two priority watersheds in Puerto Rico (Manatí and Guánica).The main objective of this study is to set up a physically based spatially distributed hydrological model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) for the analysis of hydrological processes in the Rio Grande de Manati river basin. SWAT (soil and water assessment tool) is a spatially distributed watershed model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds. For efficient use of distributed models for hydrological and scenario analysis, it is important that these models pass through a careful calibration and uncertainty analysis. The model was calibrated and validated using Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2) calibration and uncertainty analysis algorithms. The model evaluation statistics for streamflows prediction shows that there is a good agreement between the measured and simulated flows that was verified by coefficients of determination and Nash Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.5. Keywords: Hydrological Modeling; SWAT; SUFI-2; Rio Grande De Manati; Puerto Rico

  19. Utilization of Electronic Learning System in Swat Rural Areas

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nazir Ahmed Sangi

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available As developments in electronic technologies i.e. personal computers, laptops, tablets, mobiles and wearable devices, the way of learning is also changing. Therefore, utilization of Information and Communication Technology (ICT has great important role in schools and colleges. ICT is using by students, teachers and societies in District Swat, KP, Pakistan in the form of mobiles internet (for social contact and chat, computers internet (for knowledge exploration and entertainment and multimedia (for teaching and learning. One of the difficulties involved in rural areas’ students of District Swat is that they cannot join class rooms due to their poor livelihood condition and far away from schools and colleges. Especially most of the females of rural areas of Swat do not come to schools and colleges for their family tradition and culture. Various questions were examined in every aspect of educational technologies in this study. We surveyed 50 responded randomly at District Swat from different schools and colleges and discovered that the responded were generally positive and have great interest about e-learning in Swat. The use of proposed electronic system for the learning, the literacy rate will increase in rural areas and students will achieve their individual goals.

  20. AUTOMATIC CALIBRATION OF A STOCHASTIC-LAGRANGIAN TRANSPORT MODEL (SLAM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Numerical models are a useful tool in evaluating and designing NAPL remediation systems. Traditional constitutive finite difference and finite element models are complex and expensive to apply. For this reason, this paper presents the application of a simplified stochastic-Lagran...

  1. Modelling and calibration with mechatronic blockset for Simulink

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravn, Ole; Szymkat, Maciej

    1997-01-01

    The paper describes the design considerations for a software tool for modelling and simulation of mechatronic systems. The tool is based on a concept enabling the designer to pick component models that match the physical components of the system to be modelled from a block library. Another...... on the component level and for the whole model. The library that can be extended by the user contains all the standard components, DC-motors, potentiometers, encoders etc. The library is presently being tested in different projects and the response of these users is being incorporated in the code. The Mechatronic...... Simulink Library blockset is implemented basing on MATLAB and Simulink and has been used to model several mechatronic systems....

  2. A simple topography-driven, calibration-free runoff generation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, H.; Birkel, C.; Hrachowitz, M.; Tetzlaff, D.; Soulsby, C.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2017-12-01

    Determining the amount of runoff generation from rainfall occupies a central place in rainfall-runoff modelling. Moreover, reading landscapes and developing calibration-free runoff generation models that adequately reflect land surface heterogeneities remains the focus of much hydrological research. In this study, we created a new method to estimate runoff generation - HAND-based Storage Capacity curve (HSC) which uses a topographic index (HAND, Height Above the Nearest Drainage) to identify hydrological similarity and partially the saturated areas of catchments. We then coupled the HSC model with the Mass Curve Technique (MCT) method to estimate root zone storage capacity (SuMax), and obtained the calibration-free runoff generation model HSC-MCT. Both the two models (HSC and HSC-MCT) allow us to estimate runoff generation and simultaneously visualize the spatial dynamic of saturated area. We tested the two models in the data-rich Bruntland Burn (BB) experimental catchment in Scotland with an unusual time series of the field-mapped saturation area extent. The models were subsequently tested in 323 MOPEX (Model Parameter Estimation Experiment) catchments in the United States. HBV and TOPMODEL were used as benchmarks. We found that the HSC performed better in reproducing the spatio-temporal pattern of the observed saturated areas in the BB catchment compared with TOPMODEL which is based on the topographic wetness index (TWI). The HSC also outperformed HBV and TOPMODEL in the MOPEX catchments for both calibration and validation. Despite having no calibrated parameters, the HSC-MCT model also performed comparably well with the calibrated HBV and TOPMODEL, highlighting the robustness of the HSC model to both describe the spatial distribution of the root zone storage capacity and the efficiency of the MCT method to estimate the SuMax. Moreover, the HSC-MCT model facilitated effective visualization of the saturated area, which has the potential to be used for broader

  3. Sensitivity analysis and calibration of a dynamic physically based slope stability model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zieher, Thomas; Rutzinger, Martin; Schneider-Muntau, Barbara; Perzl, Frank; Leidinger, David; Formayer, Herbert; Geitner, Clemens

    2017-06-01

    Physically based modelling of slope stability on a catchment scale is still a challenging task. When applying a physically based model on such a scale (1 : 10 000 to 1 : 50 000), parameters with a high impact on the model result should be calibrated to account for (i) the spatial variability of parameter values, (ii) shortcomings of the selected model, (iii) uncertainties of laboratory tests and field measurements or (iv) parameters that cannot be derived experimentally or measured in the field (e.g. calibration constants). While systematic parameter calibration is a common task in hydrological modelling, this is rarely done using physically based slope stability models. In the present study a dynamic, physically based, coupled hydrological-geomechanical slope stability model is calibrated based on a limited number of laboratory tests and a detailed multitemporal shallow landslide inventory covering two landslide-triggering rainfall events in the Laternser valley, Vorarlberg (Austria). Sensitive parameters are identified based on a local one-at-a-time sensitivity analysis. These parameters (hydraulic conductivity, specific storage, angle of internal friction for effective stress, cohesion for effective stress) are systematically sampled and calibrated for a landslide-triggering rainfall event in August 2005. The identified model ensemble, including 25 behavioural model runs with the highest portion of correctly predicted landslides and non-landslides, is then validated with another landslide-triggering rainfall event in May 1999. The identified model ensemble correctly predicts the location and the supposed triggering timing of 73.0 % of the observed landslides triggered in August 2005 and 91.5 % of the observed landslides triggered in May 1999. Results of the model ensemble driven with raised precipitation input reveal a slight increase in areas potentially affected by slope failure. At the same time, the peak run-off increases more markedly, suggesting that

  4. Using SWAT-MODFLOW to simulate groundwater flow and groundwater-surface water interactions in an intensively irrigated stream-aquifer system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wei, X.; Bailey, R. T.

    2017-12-01

    Agricultural irrigated watersheds in semi-arid regions face challenges such as waterlogging, high soil salinity, reduced crop yield, and leaching of chemical species due to extreme shallow water tables resulting from long-term intensive irrigation. Hydrologic models can be used to evaluate the impact of land management practices on water yields and groundwater-surface water interactions in such regions. In this study, the newly developed SWAT-MODFLOW, a coupled surface/subsurface hydrologic model, is applied to a 950 km2 watershed in the Lower Arkansas River Valley (southeastern Colorado). The model accounts for the influence of canal diversions, irrigation applications, groundwater pumping, and earth canal seepage losses. The model provides a detailed description of surface and subsurface flow processes, thereby enabling detailed description of watershed processes such as runoff, infiltration, in-streamflow, three-dimensional groundwater flow in a heterogeneous aquifer system with sources and sinks (e.g. pumping, seepage to subsurface drains), and spatially-variable surface and groundwater exchange. The model was calibrated and tested against stream discharge from 5 stream gauges in the Arkansas River and its tributaries, groundwater levels from 70 observation wells, and evapotranspiration (ET) data estimated from satellite (ReSET) data during the 1999 to 2007 period. Since the water-use patterns within the study area are typical of many other irrigated river valleys in the United States and elsewhere, this modeling approach is transferable to other regions.