Sample records for swat model applied

  1. Evaluation of non-point source pollution reduction by applying best management practices using a SWAT model and QuickBird high resolution satellite imagery. (United States)

    Lee, MiSeon; Park, GeunAe; Park, MinJi; Park, JongYoon; Lee, JiWan; Kim, SeongJoon


    This study evaluated the reduction effect of non-point source pollution by applying best management practices (BMPs) to a 1.21 km2 small agricultural watershed using a SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Two meter QuickBird land use data were prepared for the watershed. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow and monthly water quality (total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and suspended solids (SS)) records from 1999 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2002. The average Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.63 for the streamflow and the coefficients of determination were 0.88, 0.72, and 0.68 for SS, TN, and TP, respectively. Four BMP scenarios viz. the application of vegetation filter strip and riparian buffer system, the regulation of Universal Soil Loss Equation P factor, and the fertilizing control amount for crops were applied and analyzed.

  2. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

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    D. Gorgan


    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.


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    Preksedis M. Ndomba


    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977¿1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977-1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969-2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  4. Flow forecast by SWAT model and ANN in Pracana basin, Portugal

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    Demirel, M.C.; Venancio, Anabela; Kahya, Ercan


    This study provides a unique opportunity to analyze the issue of flow forecast based on the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. In last two decades, the ANNs have been extensively applied to various water resources system problems. In this study, the

  5. Introducing a new open source GIS user interface for the SWAT model (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a robust watershed modelling tool. It typically uses the ArcSWAT interface to create its inputs. ArcSWAT is public domain software which works in the licensed ArcGIS environment. The aim of this paper was to develop an open source user interface ...

  6. Impacts of manure application on SWAT model outputs in the Xiangxi River watershed (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Wang, Qingrui; Xu, Fei; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia


    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been widely used to simulate agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution; however, the impacts of livestock manure application on SWAT model outputs have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to investigate the environmental effects of livestock manure application based on the SWAT model in the Xiangxi River watershed, which is one of the largest tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Three newly-built manure databases (NB) were created and applied to different subbasins based on the actual livestock manure discharging amount. The calibration and validation values of SWAT model outputs obtained from the NB manure application and the original mixed (OM) manure were compared. The study results are as follows: (1) The livestock industry of Xingshan County developed quickly between 2005 and 2015. The downstream of the Xiangxi River (Huangliang, Shuiyuesi and Xiakou) had the largest livestock amount, and largely accounted for manure, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) production (>50%). (2) The NB manure application resulted in less phosphorus pollution (1686.35 kg for ORGP and 31.70 kg for MINP) than the OM manure application. Compared with the upstream, the downstream was influenced more by the manure application. (3) The SWAT results obtained from the NB manure had a better calibration and validation values than those from the OM manure. For ORGP, R2 and NSE values were 0.77 and 0.65 for the NB manure calibration; and the same values for the OM manure were 0.72 and 0.61, respectively. For MINP, R2 values were 0.65 and 0.62 for the NB manure and the OM manure, and the NSE values were 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The results indicated that the built-in fertilizer database in SWAT has its limitation because it is set up for the simulation in the USA. Thus, when livestock manure is considered in a SWAT simulation, a newly built fertilizer database needs to be set up to represent

  7. Prediction of phosphorus loads in an artificially drained lowland catchment using a modified SWAT model (United States)

    Bauwe, Andreas; Eckhardt, Kai-Uwe; Lennartz, Bernd


    Eutrophication is still one of the main environmental problems in the Baltic Sea. Currently, agricultural diffuse sources constitute the major portion of phosphorus (P) fluxes to the Baltic Sea and have to be reduced to achieve the HELCOM targets and improve the ecological status. Eco-hydrological models are suitable tools to identify sources of nutrients and possible measures aiming at reducing nutrient loads into surface waters. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Warnow river basin (3300 km2), the second largest watershed in Germany discharging into the Baltic Sea. The Warnow river basin is located in northeastern Germany and characterized by lowlands with a high proportion of artificially drained areas. The aim of this study were (i) to estimate P loadings for individual flow fractions (point sources, surface runoff, tile flow, groundwater flow), spatially distributed on sub-basin scale. Since the official version of SWAT does not allow for the modeling of P in tile drains, we tested (ii) two different approaches of simulating P in tile drains by changing the SWAT source code. The SWAT source code was modified so that (i) the soluble P concentration of the groundwater was transferred to the tile water and (ii) the soluble P in the soil was transferred to the tiles. The SWAT model was first calibrated (2002-2011) and validated (1992-2001) for stream flow at 7 headwater catchments at a daily time scale. Based on this, the stream flow at the outlet of the Warnow river basin was simulated. Performance statistics indicated at least satisfactory model results for each sub-basin. Breaking down the discharge into flow constituents, it becomes visible that stream flow is mainly governed by groundwater and tile flow. Due to the topographic situation with gentle slopes, surface runoff played only a minor role. Results further indicate that the prediction of soluble P loads was improved by the modified SWAT versions. Major sources of

  8. A simple rule based model for scheduling farm management operations in SWAT (United States)

    Schürz, Christoph; Mehdi, Bano; Schulz, Karsten


    For many interdisciplinary questions at the watershed scale, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT; Arnold et al., 1998) has become an accepted and widely used tool. Despite its flexibility, the model is highly demanding when it comes to input data. At SWAT's core the water balance and the modeled nutrient cycles are plant growth driven (implemented with the EPIC crop growth model). Therefore, land use and crop data with high spatial and thematic resolution, as well as detailed information on cultivation and farm management practices are required. For many applications of the model however, these data are unavailable. In order to meet these requirements, SWAT offers the option to trigger scheduled farm management operations by applying the Potential Heat Unit (PHU) concept. The PHU concept solely takes into account the accumulation of daily mean temperature for management scheduling. Hence, it contradicts several farming strategies that take place in reality; such as: i) Planting and harvesting dates are set much too early or too late, as the PHU concept is strongly sensitivity to inter-annual temperature fluctuations; ii) The timing of fertilizer application, in SWAT this often occurs simultaneously on the same date in in each field; iii) and can also coincide with precipitation events. Particularly, the latter two can lead to strong peaks in modeled nutrient loads. To cope with these shortcomings we propose a simple rule based model (RBM) to schedule management operations according to realistic farmer management practices in SWAT. The RBM involves simple strategies requiring only data that are input into the SWAT model initially, such as temperature and precipitation data. The user provides boundaries of time periods for operation schedules to take place for all crops in the model. These data are readily available from the literature or from crop variety trials. The RBM applies the dates by complying with the following rules: i) Operations scheduled in the

  9. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

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    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab


    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  10. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis for pesticide transport in watershed-scale water quality modeling using SWAT

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    Luo Yuzhou [University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035 (China); Zhang Minghua, E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.ed [University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035 (China)


    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated for hydrology conditions in an agricultural watershed of Orestimba Creek, California, and applied to simulate fate and transport of two organophosphate pesticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon. The model showed capability in evaluating pesticide fate and transport processes in agricultural fields and instream network. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis was conducted by applied stochastic SWAT simulations for pesticide distribution. Results of sensitivity analysis identified the governing processes in pesticide outputs as surface runoff, soil erosion, and sedimentation in the study area. By incorporating sensitive parameters in pesticide transport simulation, effects of structural best management practices (BMPs) in improving surface water quality were demonstrated by SWAT modeling. This study also recommends conservation practices designed to reduce field yield and in-stream transport capacity of sediment, such as filter strip, grassed waterway, crop residue management, and tailwater pond to be implemented in the Orestimba Creek watershed. - Selected structural BMPs are recommended for reducing loads of OP pesticides.

  11. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

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    Indrajeet Chaubey


    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  12. Sediment management modelling in the Blue Nile Basin using SWAT model

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    G. D. Betrie


    Full Text Available Soil erosion/sedimentation is an immense problem that has threatened water resources development in the Nile river basin, particularly in the Eastern Nile (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. An insight into soil erosion/sedimentation mechanisms and mitigation methods plays an imperative role for the sustainable water resources development in the region. This paper presents daily sediment yield simulations in the Upper Blue Nile under different Best Management Practice (BMP scenarios. Scenarios applied in this paper are (i maintaining existing conditions, (ii introducing filter strips, (iii applying stone bunds (parallel terraces, and (iv reforestation. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was used to model soil erosion, identify soil erosion prone areas and assess the impact of BMPs on sediment reduction. For the existing conditions scenario, the model results showed a satisfactory agreement between daily observed and simulated sediment concentrations as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.83. The simulation results showed that applying filter strips, stone bunds and reforestation scenarios reduced the current sediment yields both at the subbasins and the basin outlets. However, a precise interpretation of the quantitative results may not be appropriate because some physical processes are not well represented in the SWAT model.

  13. Calibration and Validation of the SWAT2000 Watershed Model for Phosphorus Loading to the Cannonsville Reservoir (United States)

    Tolson, B. A.; Shoemaker, C. A.


    A comprehensive modeling effort was undertaken to simulate phosphorus (P) loading to the Cannonsville Reservoir in upstate New York. The Cannonsville Reservoir is one of the City of New York's drinking water supply reservoirs and drains an 1178 km2 watershed that is predominantly agricultural (dairy farming) and forested. The occurrence of eutrophic conditions in the reservoir, due to excessive P loading, resulted in the reservoir being classified as `phosphorus restricted'. This classification restricts future economic growth in the watershed when the growth directly or indirectly increases P loadings. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2000) was used to model the P loading to the reservoir in order to help investigate the effectiveness of proposed management options for reducing P loading. SWAT2000 is a distributed watershed model developed by the Agricultural Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture. This study is the first to apply SWAT2000 for P loading predictions in the Northeast US. SWAT2000 model development with respect to P focused initially on developing Cannonsville Watershed specific P inputs. Agricultural practices in the watershed were generalized, initial soil P levels were determined using aggregated watershed-wide soil P test results, manure spreading was based on the available manure masses as projected from local cattle population estimates and manure production characteristics were based on local manure studies. Ten years of daily P loading data were available for calibration and validation of the model. Additional bi-weekly sampling data of surface water P concentrations across the watershed were also utilized to test the spatial performance of the model. Comparison with measured data and further analysis of model equations showed that the model equations for sediment generation under snow melt conditions required modifications. In addition a number of P model parameters required calibration. Calibration results

  14. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Zarrinehrud Basin Using SWAT Model

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    B. Mansouri


    Full Text Available This paper evaluate impacts of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the future Using statistical model, LARS-WG, and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT. In order to the Zarrinehrud river basin, as the biggest catchment of the Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. At first, for the generation of future weather data in the basin, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then 14 models of AOGCM were applied and results of these models were downscaled using LARS-WG model in 6 synoptic stations for period of 2015 to 2030. SWAT model was used for evaluation of climate change impacts on runoff in the basin. In order to, the model was calibrated and validated using 6 gauging stations for period of 1987-2007 and the value of R2 was between 0.49 and 0.71 for calibration and between 0.54 and 0.77 for validation. Then by introducing average of downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, runoff changes of the basin were simulated during 2015-2030. Average of results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly mean of minimum and maximum temperatures will increase compared to the baseline period. Also monthly average of precipitation will decrease in spring season but will increase in summer and autumn. The results showed that in addition to the amount of precipitation, its pattern will change in the future period, too. The results of runoff simulation showed that the amount of inflow to the Zarrinehrud reservoir will reduce 28.4 percent compared to the baseline period.

  15. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model ecosystem services: A systematic review (United States)

    Francesconi, Wendy; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Pérez-Miñana, Elena; Willcock, Simon P.; Quintero, Marcela


    SWAT, a watershed modeling tool has been proposed to help quantify ecosystem services. The concept of ecosystem services incorporates the collective benefits natural systems provide primarily to human beings. It is becoming increasingly important to track the impact that human activities have on the environment in order to determine its resilience and sustainability. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of efforts using SWAT to quantify ecosystem services, to determine the model's capability examining various types of services, and to describe the approach used by various researchers. A literature review was conducted to identify studies in which SWAT was explicitly used for quantifying ecosystem services in terms of provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural aspects. A total of 44 peer reviewed publications were identified. Most of these used SWAT to quantify provisioning services (34%), regulating services (27%), or a combination of both (25%). While studies using SWAT for evaluating ecosystem services are limited (approximately 1% of SWAT's peered review publications), and usage (vs. potential) of services by beneficiaries is a current model limitation, the available literature sets the stage for the continuous development and potential of SWAT as a methodological framework for quantifying ecosystem services to assist in decision-making.

  16. Advances in the application of the SWAT model for water resources management (United States)

    Jayakrishnan, R.; Srinivasan, R.; Santhi, C.; Arnold, J. G.


    Developments in computer technology have revolutionized the study of hydrologic systems and water resources management. Several computer-based hydrologic/water quality models have been developed for applications in hydrologic modelling and water resources studies. Distributed parameter models, necessary for basin-scale studies, have large input data requirements. Geographic information systems (GIS) and model-GIS interfaces aid the efficient creation of input data files required by such models. One such model available for the water resources professional is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a distributed parameter model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture. This paper describes some recent advances made in the application of SWAT and the SWAT-GIS interface for water resources management. Four case studies are presented. The Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS) project used SWAT to conduct a national-scale analysis of the effect of management scenarios on water quantity and quality. Integration of the SWAT model with rainfall data available from the WSR-88D radar network helps us to incorporate the spatial variability of rainfall into the modelling process. This study demonstrates the usefulness of radar rainfall data in distributed hydrologic studies and the potential of SWAT for application in flood analysis and prediction. A hydrologic modelling study of the Sondu river basin in Kenya using SWAT indicates the potential for application of the model in African watersheds and points to the need for development of better model input data sets in Africa, which are critical for detailed water resources studies. The application of SWAT for water quality analysis in the Bosque river basin, Texas demonstrates the strength of the model for analysing different management scenarios to minimize point and non-point pollution, and its potential for application in total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies.

  17. Impact of Spatial Scale on Calibration and Model Output for a Grid-based SWAT Model (United States)

    Pignotti, G.; Vema, V. K.; Rathjens, H.; Raj, C.; Her, Y.; Chaubey, I.; Crawford, M. M.


    The traditional implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model utilizes common landscape characteristics known as hydrologic response units (HRUs). Discretization into HRUs provides a simple, computationally efficient framework for simulation, but also represents a significant limitation of the model as spatial connectivity between HRUs is ignored. SWATgrid, a newly developed, distributed version of SWAT, provides modified landscape routing via a grid, overcoming these limitations. However, the current implementation of SWATgrid has significant computational overhead, which effectively precludes traditional calibration and limits the total number of grid cells in a given modeling scenario. Moreover, as SWATgrid is a relatively new modeling approach, it remains largely untested with little understanding of the impact of spatial resolution on model output. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of user-defined input resolution on SWATgrid predictions in the Upper Cedar Creek Watershed (near Auburn, IN, USA). Original input data, nominally at 30 m resolution, was rescaled for a range of resolutions between 30 and 4,000 m. A 30 m traditional SWAT model was developed as the baseline for model comparison. Monthly calibration was performed, and the calibrated parameter set was then transferred to all other SWAT and SWATgrid models to focus the effects of resolution on prediction uncertainty relative to the baseline. Model output was evaluated with respect to stream flow at the outlet and water quality parameters. Additionally, output of SWATgrid models were compared to output of traditional SWAT models at each resolution, utilizing the same scaled input data. A secondary objective considered the effect of scale on calibrated parameter values, where each standard SWAT model was calibrated independently, and parameters were transferred to SWATgrid models at equivalent scales. For each model, computational requirements were evaluated

  18. Impact Assessment of Morphological Features on Watersheds Using SWAT Model (United States)

    Kaya, S.; Kutukcu, A.


    Defining the morphological characteristics of a basin enables carrying out numerous hydrological assessments such as flow value of the basin. In this study the impacts of morphological features designated for the basins on the flow were analyzed. Related to the basin flow shape, drainage density, bifurcation ratio and texture ratio were evaluated using morphological parameters. In the study, Büyük Menderes River Basin and Gediz River Basin which extend across a long valley and flow into the Aegean Sea, were selected as the study area. In the calculation of morphometric parameters regarding the basins, DTM which has 10 m spatial resolution was used. DTM was used as input data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT model which makes significant contributions to the modelling of big basins for hydrologists. The flow value obtained as a result of operating the model facilitates to verify the conducted morphological analyses. On account of operating the model, hydrological parameters on the basis of sub basins were also obtained, which in return makes it possible to understand the hydrological reactions within the basin. The results of the conducted study can be effectively used for integrated watershed management which requires detailed hydrological parameters can be obtained using modern tools such as numerical models.

  19. Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model (United States)

    This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

  20. Assessing Thermally Stressful Events in a Rhode Island Coldwater Fish Habitat Using the SWAT Model

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    Britta Chambers


    Full Text Available It has become increasingly important to recognize historical water quality trends so that the future impacts of climate change may be better understood. Climate studies have suggested that inland stream temperatures and average streamflow will increase over the next century in New England, thereby putting aquatic species sustained by coldwater habitats at risk. In this study we evaluated two different approaches for modeling historical streamflow and stream temperature in a Rhode Island, USA, watershed with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, using (i original SWAT and (ii SWAT plus a hydroclimatological model component that considers both hydrological inputs and air temperature. Based on daily calibration results with six years of measured streamflow and four years of stream temperature data, we examined occurrences of stressful conditions for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis using the hydroclimatological model. SWAT with the hydroclimatological component improved modestly during calibration (NSE of 0.93, R2 of 0.95 compared to the original SWAT (NSE of 0.83, R2 of 0.93. Between 1980–2009, the number of stressful events, a moment in time where high or low flows occur simultaneously with stream temperatures exceeding 21 °C, increased by 55% and average streamflow increased by 60%. This study supports using the hydroclimatological SWAT component and provides an example method for assessing stressful conditions in southern New England’s coldwater habitats.

  1. Rainfall-runoff modelling of Ajay river catchment using SWAT model (United States)

    Kangsabanik, Subhadip; Murmu, Sneha


    The present study is based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model which integrates the GIS information with attribute database to estimate the runoff of Ajay River catchment. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a physically based distributed parameter model which has been developed to predict runoff, erosion, sediment and nutrient transport from agricultural watersheds under different management practices. The SWAT Model works in conjunction with Arc GIS. In the present study the catchment area has been delineated using the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and then divided into 19 sub-basins. For preparation of landuse map the IRS-P6 LISS-III image has been used and the soil map is extracted from HWSD (Harmonized World Soil Database) Raster world soil map. The sub basins are further divided into 223 HRUs which stands for Hydrological Response Unit. Then by using 30 years of daily rainfall data and daily maximum and minimum temperature data SWAT simulation is done for daily, monthly and yearly basis to find out Runoff for corresponding Rainfall. The coefficient of correlation (r) for rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is found to be 0.9419.

  2. Simulating Flash Floods at Hourly Time-Step Using the SWAT Model

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    Laurie Boithias


    Full Text Available Flash floods are natural phenomena with environmental, social and economic impacts. To date, few numerical models are able to simulate hydrological processes at catchment scale at a reasonable time scale to describe flash events with accurate details. Considering a ~810 km2 Mediterranean river coastal basin (southwestern France as a study case, the objective of the present study was to assess the ability of the sub-daily module of the lumped Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT to simulate discharge (1 time-continuously, by testing two sub-basin delineation schemes, two catchment sizes, and two output time-steps; and (2 at flood time-scale, by comparing the performances of SWAT to the performances of the event-based fully distributed MARINE model when simulating flash flood events. We showed that there was no benefit of decreasing the size of the minimum drainage area (e.g., from ~15 km2 down to ~1 km2 when delineating sub-basins in SWAT. We also showed that both the MARINE and SWAT models were equally able to reproduce peak discharge, flood timing and volume, and that they were both limited by rainfall and soil data. Hence, the SWAT model appears to be a reliable modelling tool to predict discharge over long periods of time in large flash-flood-prone basins.

  3. Modelling streamflow from two small South African experimental catchments using the SWAT model (United States)

    Govender, M.; Everson, C. S.


    Increasing demand for timber products results in the expansion of commercial afforestation in South Africa. The conversion of indigenous seasonally dormant grassland to evergreen forests results in increased transpiration and ultimately a reduction in catchment runoff, creating a negative impact on the country's scarce water supplies. In order to assist managers in the decision-making processes it is important to be able to accurately assess and predict hydrological processes, and the impact that land use change will have on water resources. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) provides a means of performing these assessments. One of the key strengths of the SWAT model lies in its ability to model the relative impacts of changes in management practices, climate and vegetation on water quantity and quality.The aim of this study was to determine if the SWAT model could reasonably simulate hydrological processes in daily time steps from two small South African catchments. To verify the SWAT model a grassland (C VIgrass) and Pinus patula afforested catchment (C IIpine) were selected from the Cathedral Peak hydrological research station in the KwaZulu Natal Drakensberg mountains. These catchments were chosen because of the availability of detailed hydrological records and suitable land use.Observed and simulated streamflow for C VIgrass and C IIpine were compared. When model fits of observed and simulated streamflow for C VIgrass were acceptable, this parameter set was then used in the configuration of C IIpine. Results show that the model performs well for C VIgrass with reasonable agreement between modelled and observed data (R2 = 0.68). Comparisons for C IIpine show a total oversimulation of streamflow for the period 1950 to 1965, with deviations between observed and modelled data increasing from 1959 to 1965, due to the model not accounting for the increase in ET brought about by the maturing pine plantation.

  4. The modified SWAT model for predicting fecal coliforms in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed, USA. (United States)

    Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Kim, Joon Ha; Kim, Jung-Woo; Park, Mi-Hyun


    This study assessed fecal coliform contamination in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed in Massachusetts, USA using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) because bacteria are one of the major water quality parameters of concern. The bacteria subroutine in SWAT, considering in-stream bacteria die-off only, was modified in this study to include solar radiation-associated die-off and the contribution of wildlife. The result of sensitivity analysis demonstrates that solar radiation is one of the most significant fate factors of fecal coliform. A water temperature-associated function to represent the contribution of beaver activity in the watershed to fecal contamination improved prediction accuracy. The modified SWAT model provides an improved estimate of bacteria from the watershed. Our approach will be useful for simulating bacterial concentrations to provide predictive and reliable information of fecal contamination thus facilitating the implementation of effective watershed management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model for a forested watershed in coastal South Carolina (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Elizabeth B. Haley; Norman S. Levine; Timothy J. Callahan; Artur Radecki-Pawlik; Manoj K. Jha


    Modeling the hydrology of low-gradient coastal watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils is a challenging task due to the complexities in watershed delineation, runoff generation processes and pathways, flooding, and submergence caused by tropical storms. The objective of the study is to calibrate and validate a GIS-based spatially-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT...

  6. Anthropogenic factors as an element of uncertainty in hydrological modelling of water yield with SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Corobov


    Full Text Available In 2014 the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used as a basis for follow-up investigations of Moldova’s small rivers potential flow. The first step of the study included the validation of SWAT for local conditions. As an experimental area, the Cogilnic River watershed was selected. Interim steps included the watershed delineation aimed to identify the subwatersheds and the Hydrological Response Units (small entities with the same characteristics of hydrologic soil type, land use and slopes. To address these tasks, the land cover, soil and slope layers, based on the Digital Elevation Model, were integrated in the SWAT environment. These thematic layers, alongside with long-term information on local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation, enabled reflecting the differences in hydrological conditions and defining the watershed runoff. However, the validation of the modelling outputs, carried out through comparison of a simulated water yield from the studied watershed with actual Cogilnic streamflow measures, observed in 2010-2012, showed a great discrepancy between these parameters caused by anthropogenic loading on this small river. Thus, a ‘classical’ SWAT modelling needs to account for real environmental conditions and water use in the study area.

  7. Modelling water-harvesting systems in the arid south of Tunisia using SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ouessar


    Full Text Available In many arid countries, runoff water-harvesting systems support the livelihood of the rural population. Little is known, however, about the effect of these systems on the water balance components of arid watersheds. The objective of this study was to adapt and evaluate the GIS-based watershed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool for simulating the main hydrologic processes in arid environments. The model was applied to the 270-km2 watershed of wadi Koutine in southeast Tunisia, which receives about 200 mm annual rain. The main adjustment for adapting the model to this dry Mediterranean environment was the inclusion of water-harvesting systems, which capture and use surface runoff for crop production in upstream subbasins, and a modification of the crop growth processes. The adjusted version of the model was named SWAT-WH. Model evaluation was performed based on 38 runoff events recorded at the Koutine station between 1973 and 1985. The model predicted that the average annual watershed rainfall of the 12-year evaluation period (209 mm was split into ET (72%, groundwater recharge (22% and outflow (6%. The evaluation coefficients for calibration and validation were, respectively, R2 (coefficient of determination 0.77 and 0.44; E (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.73 and 0.43; and MAE (Mean Absolute Error 2.6 mm and 3.0 mm, indicating that the model could reproduce the observed events reasonably well. However, the runoff record was dominated by two extreme events, which had a strong effect on the evaluation criteria. Discrepancies remained mainly due to uncertainties in the observed daily rainfall and runoff data. Recommendations for future research include the installation of additional rainfall and runoff gauges with continuous data logging and the collection of more field data to represent the soils and land use. In addition, crop growth and yield monitoring is needed for a proper evaluation of crop production, to

  8. Application of WRF - SWAT OpenMI 2.0 based models integration for real time hydrological modelling and forecasting (United States)

    Bugaets, Andrey; Gonchukov, Leonid


    Intake of deterministic distributed hydrological models into operational water management requires intensive collection and inputting of spatial distributed climatic information in a timely manner that is both time consuming and laborious. The lead time of the data pre-processing stage could be essentially reduced by coupling of hydrological and numerical weather prediction models. This is especially important for the regions such as the South of the Russian Far East where its geographical position combined with a monsoon climate affected by typhoons and extreme heavy rains caused rapid rising of the mountain rivers water level and led to the flash flooding and enormous damage. The objective of this study is development of end-to-end workflow that executes, in a loosely coupled mode, an integrated modeling system comprised of Weather Research and Forecast (WRF) atmospheric model and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT 2012) hydrological model using OpenMI 2.0 and web-service technologies. Migration SWAT into OpenMI compliant involves reorganization of the model into a separate initialization, performing timestep and finalization functions that can be accessed from outside. To save SWAT normal behavior, the source code was separated from OpenMI-specific implementation into the static library. Modified code was assembled into dynamic library and wrapped into C# class implemented the OpenMI ILinkableComponent interface. Development of WRF OpenMI-compliant component based on the idea of the wrapping web-service clients into a linkable component and seamlessly access to output netCDF files without actual models connection. The weather state variables (precipitation, wind, solar radiation, air temperature and relative humidity) are processed by automatic input selection algorithm to single out the most relevant values used by SWAT model to yield climatic data at the subbasin scale. Spatial interpolation between the WRF regular grid and SWAT subbasins centroid (which are

  9. SWAT Model Prediction of Phosphorus Loading in a South Carolina Karst Watershed with a Downstream Embayment (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Manoj K. Jha; Thomas M. Williams; Amy E. Edwards; Daniel R.. Hitchcock


    The SWAT model was used to predict total phosphorus (TP) loadings for a 1555-ha karst watershed—Chapel Branch Creek (CBC)—which drains to a lake via a reservoir-like embayment (R-E). The model was first tested for monthly streamflow predictions from tributaries draining three potential source areas as well as the downstream R-E, followed by TP loadings using data...

  10. Modeling nitrate-nitrogen load reduction strategies for the des moines river, iowa using SWAT (United States)

    Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.


    The Des Moines River that drains a watershed of 16,175 km2 in portions of Iowa and Minnesota is impaired for nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) due to concentrations that exceed regulatory limits for public water supplies. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to model streamflow and nitrate loads and evaluate a suite of basin-wide changes and targeting configurations to potentially reduce nitrate loads in the river. The SWAT model comprised 173 subbasins and 2,516 hydrologic response units and included point and nonpoint nitrogen sources. The model was calibrated for an 11-year period and three basin-wide and four targeting strategies were evaluated. Results indicated that nonpoint sources accounted for 95% of the total nitrate export. Reduction in fertilizer applications from 170 to 50 kg/ha achieved the 38% reduction in nitrate loads, exceeding the 34% reduction required. In terms of targeting, the most efficient load reductions occurred when fertilizer applications were reduced in subbasins nearest the watershed outlet. The greatest load reduction for the area of land treated was associated with reducing loads from 55 subbasins with the highest nitrate loads, achieving a 14% reduction in nitrate loads achieved by reducing applications on 30% of the land area. SWAT model results provide much needed guidance on how to begin implementing load reduction strategies most efficiently in the Des Moines River watershed. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  11. Improving streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model by assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture observations (United States)

    Patil, Amol; Ramsankaran, RAAJ


    This article presents a study carried out using EnKF based assimilation of coarser-scale SMOS soil moisture retrievals to improve the streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model in a large catchment. This study has been carried out in Munneru river catchment, India, which is about 10,156 km2. In this study, an EnkF based new approach is proposed for improving the inherent vertical coupling of soil layers of SWAT hydrological model during soil moisture data assimilation. Evaluation of the vertical error correlation obtained between surface and subsurface layers indicates that the vertical coupling can be improved significantly using ensemble of soil storages compared to the traditional static soil storages based EnKF approach. However, the improvements in the simulated streamflow are moderate, which is due to the limitations in SWAT model in reflecting the profile soil moisture updates in surface runoff computations. Further, it is observed that the durability of streamflow improvements is longer when the assimilation system effectively updates the subsurface flow component. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that the passive microwave-based coarser-scale soil moisture products like SMOS hold significant potential to improve the streamflow estimates when assimilating into large-scale distributed hydrological models operating at a daily time step.

  12. Assessment of soil erosion risk in Komering watershed, South Sumatera, using SWAT model (United States)

    Salsabilla, A.; Kusratmoko, E.


    Changes in land use watershed led to environmental degradation. Estimated loss of soil erosion is often difficult due to some factors such as topography, land use, climate and human activities. This study aims to predict soil erosion hazard and sediment yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model. The SWAT was chosen because it can simulate the model with limited data. The study area is Komering watershed (806,001 Ha) in South Sumatera Province. There are two factors land management intervention: 1) land with agriculture, and 2) land with cultivation. These factors selected in accordance with the regulations of spatial plan area. Application of the SWAT demonstrated that the model can predict surface runoff, soil erosion loss and sediment yield. The erosion risk for each watershed can be classified and predicted its changes based on the scenarios which arranged. In this paper, we also discussed the relationship between the distribution of erosion risk and watershed's characteristics in a spatial perspective.

  13. Baseflow simulation using SWAT model in an inland river basin in Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Luo


    Full Text Available Baseflow is an important component in hydrological modeling. The complex streamflow recession process complicates the baseflow simulation. In order to simulate the snow and/or glacier melt dominated streamflow receding quickly during the high-flow period but very slowly during the low-flow period in rivers in arid and cold northwest China, the current one-reservoir baseflow approach in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool model was extended by adding a slow- reacting reservoir and applying it to the Manas River basin in the Tianshan Mountains. Meanwhile, a digital filter program was employed to separate baseflow from streamflow records for comparisons. Results indicated that the two-reservoir method yielded much better results than the one-reservoir one in reproducing streamflow processes, and the low-flow estimation was improved markedly. Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values at the calibration and validation stages are 0.68 and 0.62 for the one-reservoir case, and 0.76 and 0.69 for the two-reservoir case. The filter-based method estimated the baseflow index as 0.60, while the model-based as 0.45. The filter-based baseflow responded almost immediately to surface runoff occurrence at onset of rising limb, while the model-based responded with a delay. In consideration of watershed surface storage retention and soil freezing/thawing effects on infiltration and recharge during initial snowmelt season, a delay response is considered to be more reasonable. However, a more detailed description of freezing/thawing processes should be included in soil modules so as to determine recharge to aquifer during these processes, and thus an accurate onset point of rising limb of the simulated baseflow.

  14. Enabling Large Scale Fine Resolution Flood Modeling Using SWAT and LISFLOOD-FP (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Rajib, A.; Merwade, V.


    Due to computational burden, most large scale hydrologic models are not created to generate streamflow hydrographs for lower order ungauged streams. Similarly, most flood inundation mapping studies are performed at major stream reaches. As a result, it is not possible to get reliable flow estimates and flood extents for vast majority of the areas where no stream gauging stations are available. The objective of this study is to loosely couple spatially distributed hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with a 1D/2D hydrodynamic model, LISFLOOD-FP, for large scale fine resolution flood inundation modeling. The model setup is created for the 491,000 km2 drainage area of the Ohio River Basin in the United States. In the current framework, SWAT model is calibrated with historical streamflow data over the past 80 years (1935-2014) to provide streamflow time-series for more than 100,000 NHDPlus stream reaches in the basin. The post-calibration evaluation shows that the simulated daily streamflow has a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in the range of 0.4-0.7 against observed records across the basin. Streamflow outputs from the calibrated SWAT are subsequently used to drive LISFLOOD-FP and routed along the streams/floodplain using the built-in subgrid solver. LISFLOOD-FP is set up for the Ohio River Basin using 90m digital elevation model, and is executed on high performance computing resources at Purdue University. The flood extents produced by LISFLOOD-FP show good agreement with observed inundation. The current modeling framework lays foundation for near real-time streamflow forecasting and prediction of time-varying flood inundation maps along the NHDPlus network.

  15. Impact of Uncertainty in SWAT Model Simulations on Consequent Decisions on Optimal Crop Management Practices (United States)

    Krishnan, N.; Sudheer, K. P.; Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.


    The diminishing quantities of non-renewable forms of energy have caused an increasing interest in the renewable sources of energy, such as biofuel, in the recent years. However, the demand for biofuel has created a concern for allocating grain between the fuel and food industry. Consequently, appropriate regulations that limit grain based ethanol production have been developed and are put to practice, which resulted in cultivating perennial grasses like Switch grass and Miscanthus to meet the additional cellulose demand. A change in cropping and management practice, therefore, is essential to cater the conflicting requirement for food and biofuel, which has a long-term impact on the downstream water quality. Therefore it is essential to implement optimal cropping practices to reduce the pollutant loadings. Simulation models in conjunction with optimization procedures are useful in developing efficient cropping practices in such situations. One such model is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which can simulate both the water and the nutrient cycle, as well as quantify long-term impacts of changes in management practice in the watershed. It is envisaged that the SWAT model, along with an optimization algorithm, can be used to identify the optimal cropping pattern that achieves the minimum guaranteed grain production with less downstream pollution, while maximizing the biomass production for biofuel generation. However, the SWAT simulations do have a certain level of uncertainty that needs to be accounted for before making decisions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are twofold: (i) to understand how model uncertainties influence decision-making, and (ii) to develop appropriate management scenarios that account the uncertainty. The simulation uncertainty of the SWAT model is assessed using Shuffled Complex Evolutionary Metropolis Algorithm (SCEM). With the data collected from St. Joseph basin, IN, USA, the preliminary results indicate that model

  16. An Assessment of Mean Areal Precipitation Methods on Simulated Stream Flow: A SWAT Model Performance Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Zeiger


    Full Text Available Accurate mean areal precipitation (MAP estimates are essential input forcings for hydrologic models. However, the selection of the most accurate method to estimate MAP can be daunting because there are numerous methods to choose from (e.g., proximate gauge, direct weighted average, surface-fitting, and remotely sensed methods. Multiple methods (n = 19 were used to estimate MAP with precipitation data from 11 distributed monitoring sites, and 4 remotely sensed data sets. Each method was validated against the hydrologic model simulated stream flow using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. SWAT was validated using a split-site method and the observed stream flow data from five nested-scale gauging sites in a mixed-land-use watershed of the central USA. Cross-validation results showed the error associated with surface-fitting and remotely sensed methods ranging from −4.5 to −5.1%, and −9.8 to −14.7%, respectively. Split-site validation results showed the percent bias (PBIAS values that ranged from −4.5 to −160%. Second order polynomial functions especially overestimated precipitation and subsequent stream flow simulations (PBIAS = −160 in the headwaters. The results indicated that using an inverse-distance weighted, linear polynomial interpolation or multiquadric function method to estimate MAP may improve SWAT model simulations. Collectively, the results highlight the importance of spatially distributed observed hydroclimate data for precipitation and subsequent steam flow estimations. The MAP methods demonstrated in the current work can be used to reduce hydrologic model uncertainty caused by watershed physiographic differences.

  17. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  18. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan


    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...

  19. Application of SWAT-HS, a lumped hillslope model to simulate hydrology in the Cannonsville Reservoir watershed, New York (United States)

    Hoang, Linh; Schneiderman, Elliot; Mukundan, Rajith; Moore, Karen; Owens, Emmet; Steenhuis, Tammo


    Surface runoff is the primary mechanism transporting substances such as sediments, agricultural chemicals, and pathogens to receiving waters. In order to predict runoff and pollutant fluxes, and to evaluate management practices, it is essential to accurately predict the areas generating surface runoff, which depend on the type of runoff: infiltration-excess runoff and saturation-excess runoff. The watershed of Cannonsville reservoir is part of the New York City water supply system that provides high quality drinking water to nine million people in New York City (NYC) and nearby communities. Previous research identified saturation-excess runoff as the dominant runoff mechanism in this region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a promising tool to simulate the NYC watershed given its broad application and good performance in many watersheds with different scales worldwide, for its ability to model water quality responses, and to evaluate the effect of management practices on water quality at the watershed scale. However, SWAT predicts runoff based mainly on soil and land use characteristics, and implicitly considers only infiltration-excess runoff. Therefore, we developed a modified version of SWAT, referred to as SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS), which explicitly simulates saturation-excess runoff by redefining Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) based on wetness classes with varying soil water storage capacities, and by introducing a surface aquifer with the ability to route interflow from "drier" to "wetter" wetness classes. SWAT-HS was first tested at Town Brook, a 37 km2 headwater watershed draining to the Cannonsville reservoir using a single sub-basin for the whole watershed. SWAT-HS performed well, and predicted streamflow yielded Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.68 and 0.87 at the daily and monthly time steps, respectively. More importantly, it predicted the spatial distribution of saturated areas accurately. Based on the good performance in the Town Brook

  20. Calibration and validation of SWAT model for estimating water balance and nitrogen losses in a small agricultural watershed in central Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smarzyńska Karolina


    Full Text Available Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT ver. 2005 was applied to study water balance and nitrogen load pathways in a small agricultural watershed in the lowlands of central Poland. The natural flow regime of the Zgłowiączka River was strongly modified by human activity (deforestation and installation of a subsurface drainage system to facilitate stable crop production. SWAT was calibrated for daily and monthly discharge and monthly nitrate nitrogen load. Model efficiency was tested using manual techniques (subjective and evaluation statistics (objective. Values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, coefficient of determination (R2 and percentage of bias for daily/monthly discharge simulations and monthly load indicated good or very good fit of simulated discharge and nitrate nitrogen load to the observed data set. Model precision and accuracy of fit was proved in validation. The calibrated and validated SWAT was used to assess water balance and nitrogen fluxes in the watershed. According to the results, the share of tile drainage in water yield is equal to 78%. The model analysis indicated the most significant pathway of NO3-N to surface waters in the study area, namely the tile drainage combined with lateral flow. Its share in total NO3-N load amounted to 89%. Identification of nitrogen fluxes in the watershed is crucial for decision makers in order to manage water resources and to implement the most effective measures to limit diffuse pollution from arable land to surface waters.

  1. Runoff Simulation in the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin Based on the RIEMS–SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Songbing Zou


    Full Text Available In the distributed hydrological simulations for complex mountain areas, large amounts of meteorological input parameters with high spatial and temporal resolutions are necessary. However, the extreme scarcity and uneven distribution of the traditional meteorological observation stations in cold and arid regions of Northwest China makes it very difficult in meeting the requirements of hydrological simulations. Alternatively, regional climate models (RCMs, which can provide a variety of distributed meteorological data with high temporal and spatial resolution, have become an effective solution to improve hydrological simulation accuracy and to further study water resource responses to human activities and global climate change. In this study, abundant and evenly distributed virtual weather stations in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB of Northwest China were built for the optimization of the input data, and thus a regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS based on RCM and a distributed hydrological model of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT were integrated as a coupled climate–hydrological RIEMS-SWAT model, which was applied to simulate monthly runoff from 1995 to 2010 in the region. Results show that the simulated and observed values are close; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency is higher than 0.65; determination coefficient (R2 values are higher than 0.70; percent bias is controlled within ±20%; and root-mean-square-error-observation standard deviation ratio is less than 0.65. These results indicate that the coupled model can present basin hydrological processes properly, and provide scientific support for prediction and management of basin water resources.

  2. User's guide for simulation of waste treatment (SWAT) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macal, C.M.


    This document is a user's guide for the Simulation of Waste Treatment (SWAT) model computer code. (A detailed description of the logic and assumptions of the model was published previously.) A flow diagram depicting the logic of the SWAT computer code is included. Several river basins or regions can be simulated in a single computer run, with each region having numerous treatment plants. Treatment plants are simulated sequentially to reduce computer storage requirements. All input to the model is in the form of cards and all output is to a line printer. The code is written in FORTRAN IV and consists of approximately 3000 statements. Using the IBM 370/195 under OS, a Gl compiler requires a region of 220K. Execution time is under two minutes for a typical run for a river basin with 23 treatment plants, with each plant having an average of one technology modification over a simulation period of 25 years. In the first section of this report a brief description of the subroutines in the model is given along with an explanation of how the subroutines function in the context of the whole program. The third section indicates formatting for input data; sample input data for a test problem are also presented. Section 4 describes the output resulting from the sample input data. A program listing appears in the appendix.

  3. Modeling seasonal variability of fecal coliform in natural surface waters using the modified SWAT (United States)

    Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; Kim, Minjeong; Pyo, JongCheol; Park, Mi-Hyun; Kim, Young Mo; Kim, Jung-Woo; Kim, Joon Ha


    Fecal coliforms are indicators of pathogens and thereby, understanding of their fate and transport in surface waters is important to protect drinking water sources and public health. We compiled fecal coliform observations from four different sites in the USA and Korea and found a seasonal variability with a significant connection to temperature levels. In all observations, fecal coliform concentrations were relatively higher in summer and lower during the winter season. This could be explained by the seasonal dominance of growth or die-off of bacteria in soil and in-stream. Existing hydrologic models, however, have limitations in simulating the seasonal variability of fecal coliform. Soil and in-stream bacterial modules of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model are oversimplified in that they exclude simulations of alternating bacterial growth. This study develops a new bacteria subroutine for the SWAT in an attempt to improve its prediction accuracy. We introduced critical temperatures as a parameter to simulate the onset of bacterial growth/die-off and to reproduce the seasonal variability of bacteria. The module developed in this study will improve modeling for environmental management schemes.

  4. Aplicación del modelo hidrológico-swat-en una microcuenca agrícola de La Pampa ondulada Application of the hydrologic model - swat - on a micro agricultural basin of the rolling Pampa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Behrends Kraemer


    Full Text Available El modelado hidrológico es a menudo el primer paso en el desarrollo de sistemas de decisión espacial para identificaráreas vulnerables a la contaminación por nutrientes, pesticidas así como también a contaminantes biológicos. En este sentido el SWAT (Soil and Water Assesment Tool fue desarrollado para predecir impactos de las prácticas de manejo de las tierras en las aguas, sedimentos y agroquímicos en cuencas hidrográficas con diferentes suelos, usos y prácticas en largos períodos de tiempo. Aunque el mismo está siendo aplicado en todo el mundo, todavía no esta difundido su uso en la Argentina, no encontrándose al momento reportes al respecto. Este modelo se utilizó en una microcuenca agrícola de la Pampa Ondulada (Argentina y fue calibrado y validado utilizando los valores de escurrimientos medidos in situ. Se encontraron buenas eficiencias a escala diaria (R²: 0,55; R² ENS: 0,52 y pobres a escala mensual (R²: 0,34; R² ENS: 0,04. En la calibración, los escurrimientos fueron sobreestimados en un 31,8% y 32,6% para la escala mensual y diaria respectivamente, mientras que en la validación se sobreestimó un 42,5% para los valores mensuales y un 41,2% para los diarios. La aplicación del SWAT en esta microcuenca agrícola resultó auspiciosa y conduce a la inclusión de dicho modelo en futuros trabajos.A hydrological model is often the first step for the development of spatial decision systems in order to identify vulnerable areas to the pollution by nutrients, pesticides as well as biological contaminants. The SWAT model was developed to predict the impact of land management on water, agrochemicals and sediments in hydrographical basins with different soils, land uses and practices for long time periods. This model is being used all over the world but it has not been applied in Argentina until present. The SWAT model was used in an agricultural microbasin in the Rolling Pampa (Argentina and was calibrated and validated

  5. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Ecohydrological Model Circa 2015: Global Application Trends, Insights and Issues (United States)

    Gassman, P. W.; Arnold, J. G.; Srinivasan, R.


    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed-scale water quality models in the world. Over 2,000 peer-reviewed SWAT-related journal articles have been published and hundreds of other studies have been published in conference proceedings and other formats. The use of SWAT was initially concentrated in North America and Europe but has also expanded dramatically in other countries and regions during the past decade including Brazil, China, India, Iran, South Korea, Southeast Asia and eastern Africa. The SWAT model has proven to be a very flexible tool for investigating a broad range of hydrologic and water quality problems at different watershed scales and environmental conditions, and has proven very adaptable for applications requiring improved hydrologic and other enhanced simulation needs. We investigate here the various technological, networking, and other factors that have supported the expanded use of SWAT, and also highlight current worldwide simulation trends and possible impediments to future increased usage of the model. Examples of technological advances include easy access to web-based documentation, user-support groups, and SWAT literature, a variety of Geographic Information System (GIS) interface tools, pre- and post-processing calibration software and other software, and an open source code which has served as a model development catalyst for multiple user groups. Extensive networking regarding the use of SWAT has further occurred via internet-based user support groups, model training workshops, regional working groups, regional and international conferences, and targeted development workshops. We further highlight several important model development trends that have emerged during the past decade including improved hydrologic, cropping system, best management practice (BMP) and pollutant transport simulation methods. In addition, several current SWAT weaknesses will be addressed and key development needs will be

  6. GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological modeling tools have been increasingly used worldwide in the management of water resources at watershed level. The application of these tools have been improved in recent time through the advent of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques which enhance the use of spatially ...

  7. Spatial multiobjective optimization of agricultural conservation practices using a SWAT model and an evolutionary algorithm. (United States)

    Rabotyagov, Sergey; Campbell, Todd; Valcu, Adriana; Gassman, Philip; Jha, Manoj; Schilling, Keith; Wolter, Calvin; Kling, Catherine


    Finding the cost-efficient (i.e., lowest-cost) ways of targeting conservation practice investments for the achievement of specific water quality goals across the landscape is of primary importance in watershed management. Traditional economics methods of finding the lowest-cost solution in the watershed context (e.g.,(5,12,20)) assume that off-site impacts can be accurately described as a proportion of on-site pollution generated. Such approaches are unlikely to be representative of the actual pollution process in a watershed, where the impacts of polluting sources are often determined by complex biophysical processes. The use of modern physically-based, spatially distributed hydrologic simulation models allows for a greater degree of realism in terms of process representation but requires a development of a simulation-optimization framework where the model becomes an integral part of optimization. Evolutionary algorithms appear to be a particularly useful optimization tool, able to deal with the combinatorial nature of a watershed simulation-optimization problem and allowing the use of the full water quality model. Evolutionary algorithms treat a particular spatial allocation of conservation practices in a watershed as a candidate solution and utilize sets (populations) of candidate solutions iteratively applying stochastic operators of selection, recombination, and mutation to find improvements with respect to the optimization objectives. The optimization objectives in this case are to minimize nonpoint-source pollution in the watershed, simultaneously minimizing the cost of conservation practices. A recent and expanding set of research is attempting to use similar methods and integrates water quality models with broadly defined evolutionary optimization methods(3,4,9,10,13-15,17-19,22,23,25). In this application, we demonstrate a program which follows Rabotyagov et al.'s approach and integrates a modern and commonly used SWAT water quality model(7) with a

  8. Calibration of SWAT model for woody plant encroachment using paired experimental watershed data (United States)

    Qiao, Lei; Zou, Chris B.; Will, Rodney E.; Stebler, Elaine


    Globally, rangeland has been undergoing a transition from herbaceous dominated grasslands into tree or shrub dominated woodlands with great uncertainty of associated changes in water budget. Previous modeling studies simulated the impact of woody plant encroachment on hydrological processes using models calibrated and constrained primarily by historic streamflow from intermediate sized watersheds. In this study, we calibrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model), a widely used model for cropping and grazing systems, for a prolifically encroaching juniper species, eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana), in the south-central Great Plains using species-specific biophysical and hydrological parameters and in situ meteorological forcing from three pairs of experimental watersheds (grassland versus eastern redcedar woodland) for a period of 3-years covering a dry-to-wet cycle. The multiple paired watersheds eliminated the potentially confounding edaphic and topographic influences from changes in hydrological processes related to woody encroachment. The SWAT model was optimized with the Shuffled complexes with Principal component analysis (SP-UCI) algorithm developed from the Shuffled Complexes Evolution (SCE_UA). The mean Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (NSCE) values of the calibrated model for daily and monthly runoff from experimental watersheds reached 0.96 and 0.97 for grassland, respectively, and 0.90 and 0.84 for eastern redcedar woodland, respectively. We then validated the calibrated model with a nearby, larger watershed undergoing rapid eastern redcedar encroachment. The NSCE value for monthly streamflow over a period of 22 years was 0.79. We provide detailed biophysical and hydrological parameters for tallgrass prairie under moderate grazing and eastern redcedar, which can be used to calibrate any model for further validation and application by the hydrologic modeling community.

  9. Evalution of Long-Term Impacts of Conservation Practice Within the Little River Watershed Using the SWAT Model (United States)

    The SWAT model was used to simulate the long-term impacts of conservation practices implemented within the South Georgia Little River Watershed on streamflow hydrology and water quality. Typical practices which have been implemented within the watershed include nutrient management, residue manageme...

  10. Comparison of model performance and simulated water balance using NASIM and SWAT for the Wupper River Basin, Germany (United States)

    Lorza, Paula; Nottebohm, Martin; Scheibel, Marc; aus der Beek, Tim


    Under the framework of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), climate change impacts on the water cycle in the Wupper catchment area are being studied. With this purpose, a set of hydrological models in NASIM and SWAT have been set up, calibrated, and validated for past conditions using available data. NASIM is a physically-based, lumped, hydrological model based on the water balance equation. For the upper part of the Dhünn catchment area - Wupper River's main tributary - a SWAT model was also implemented. Observed and simulated discharge by NASIM and SWAT for the drainage area upstream of Neumühle hydrometric station (close to Große Dhünn reservoir's inlet) are compared. Comparison of simulated water balance for several hydrological years between the two models is also carried out. While NASIM offers high level of detail for modelling of complex urban areas and the possibility of entering precipitation time series at fine temporal resolution (e.g. minutely data), SWAT enables to study long-term impacts offering a huge variety of input and output variables including different soil properties, vegetation and land management practices. Beside runoff, also sediment and nutrient transport can be simulated. For most calculations, SWAT operates on a daily time step. The objective of this and future work is to determine catchment responses on different meteorological events and to study parameter sensitivity of stationary inputs such as soil parameters, vegetation or land use. Model performance is assessed with different statistical metrics (relative volume error, coefficient of determination, and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency).

  11. An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems (United States)

    Alemayehu, Tadesse; van Griensven, Ann; Taddesse Woldegiorgis, Befekadu; Bauwens, Willy


    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a globally applied river basin ecohydrological model used in a wide spectrum of studies, ranging from land use change and climate change impacts studies to research for the development of the best water management practices. However, SWAT has limitations in simulating the seasonal growth cycles for trees and perennial vegetation in the tropics, where rainfall rather than temperature is the dominant plant growth controlling factor. Our goal is to improve the vegetation growth module of SWAT for simulating the vegetation variables - such as the leaf area index (LAI) - for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we present a modified SWAT version for the tropics (SWAT-T) that uses a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI) - a quotient of rainfall (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETr) - to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania) show that the SWAT-T-simulated LAI corresponds well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland. This indicates that the SMI is reliable for triggering a new annual growth cycle. The water balance components (evapotranspiration and streamflow) simulated by the SWAT-T exhibit a good agreement with remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET-RS) and observed streamflow. The SWAT-T model, with the proposed vegetation growth module for tropical ecosystems, can be a robust tool for simulating the vegetation growth dynamics in hydrologic models in tropical regions.

  12. Pesticide transport to tile-drained fields in SWAT model – macropore flow and sediment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte


    as a fraction of effective rainfall and transported to the tile drains directly. Macropore sediment transport is calculated similarly to the MACRO model (Jarvis et al., 1999). Mobile pesticide transport is calculated with a decay function with the flow, whereas sorbed pesticides transport is associated......Preferential flow and colloidal facilitated transport via macopores connected to tile drains are the main pathways for pesticide transport from agricultural areas to surface waters in some area. We developed a macropore flow module and a sediment transport module for the Soil and Water Assessment...... Tool (SWAT) to simulate transport of both mobile (e.g. Bentazon) and strongly sorbed (e.g. Diuron) pesticides in tile drains. Macropore flow is initiated when soil water content exceeds a threshold and rainfall intensity exceeds infiltration capacity. The amount of macropore flow is calculated...

  13. Process-based hydrological modeling using SWAT: The effect of permafrost on water resources in the large-scale river catchment Kharaa / Mongolia (United States)

    Hülsmann, L.; Geyer, T.; Karthe, D.; Priess, J.; Schweitzer, C.


    In this study, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to obtain a better understanding of hydrological processes in the semi-arid catchment of the Kharaa River in Northern Mongolia. The transient, physical-based model SWAT was set up using spatial datasets on soil, land use, climate, and stream network provided by the project "IWRM-MoMo" to (i.) simulate the water balance components of the basin and (ii.) to identify potential gaps in the input data. We found that the SWAT model satisfactorily reflects the hydrological processes in the catchment and simulates river runoff as a response to strong rainfall events as well as to snow and ice melt. To obtain correct runoff volumes during spring, permafrost has to be considered. Permafrost-influenced soils constrain water flow in the frozen layer, so that percolation out of the active layer is hampered (Woo 2011). This effect is reproduced in SWAT by assigning an impermeable layer in the subsurface to the areas dominated by permafrost. The simulations indicate that in these regions groundwater resources are limited as a consequence of impermeable ground ice. In addition, groundwater recharge rates in the catchment are generally low due to high evaporation rates (80-90 %). Consequently the base flow contribution is small. Further studies on the estimation of groundwater recharge rates should be carried out, since groundwater is an important resource for water supply. Model results indicate that the non-uniformity of the precipitation distribution was not sufficiently covered by the interpolated input data, so that precipitation and runoff volumes are partially over- or underestimated. Since precipitation defines the overall water availability in river catchments (Baumgartner 1982), additional climate records would considerably improve model outputs. As a consequence of large evapotranspiration losses, discharge as well as groundwater recharge estimates were identified to be highly sensitive to

  14. Global sensitivity analysis of a SWAT model: comparison of the variance-based and moment-independent approaches (United States)

    Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Sarrazin, Fanny; Nossent, Jiri; Pianosi, Francesca; van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten; Bauwens, Willy


    Uncertainty in parameters is a well-known reason of model output uncertainty which, undermines model reliability and restricts model application. A large number of parameters, in addition to the lack of data, limits calibration efficiency and also leads to higher parameter uncertainty. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of mathematical techniques that provides quantitative information about the contribution of different sources of uncertainties (e.g. model parameters) to the model output uncertainty. Therefore, identifying influential and non-influential parameters using GSA can improve model calibration efficiency and consequently reduce model uncertainty. In this paper, moment-independent density-based GSA methods that consider the entire model output distribution - i.e. Probability Density Function (PDF) or Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) - are compared with the widely-used variance-based method and their differences are discussed. Moreover, the effect of model output definition on parameter ranking results is investigated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and model bias as example outputs. To this end, 26 flow parameters of a SWAT model of the River Zenne (Belgium) are analysed. In order to assess the robustness of the sensitivity indices, bootstrapping is applied and 95% confidence intervals are estimated. The results show that, although the variance-based method is easy to implement and interpret, it provides wider confidence intervals, especially for non-influential parameters, compared to the density-based methods. Therefore, density-based methods may be a useful complement to variance-based methods for identifying non-influential parameters.

  15. Sediment trapping analysis of flood control reservoirs in Upstream Ciliwung River using SWAT Model (United States)

    Rofiq Ginanjar, Mirwan; Putra, Santosa Sandy


    The plans of Sukamahi dam and Ciawi dam construction for Jakarta flood risk reduction purpose had been proposed as feasible solutions to be implemented. However, the risk of the dam outlets clogging, caused by the sediment, is important to be anticipated. The prediction of the max sediment concentration in the reservoir is crucial for the dam operation planning. It is important to avoid the flood outlet tunnel clogging. This paper present a hydrologic sediment budget model of The Upstream Ciliwung River Basin, with flood control dam existence scenarios. The model was constructed within SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) plugin and run inside the QGIS framework. The free hydrological data from CFSR, soil data from FAO, and topographical data from CGIAR-CSI were implemented as the model input. The model resulted the sediment concentration dynamics of the Sukamahi and Ciawi reservoirs, on some suspended sediment parameter ranges. The sediment trapping efficiency was also computed by different possible dam capacity alternatives. The research findings will give a scientific decision making base for the river authority, in term of flood control dam planning, especially in The Upstream Ciliwung River Basin.

  16. Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Heuvelmans


    Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the

  17. Evaluation of existing and modified wetland equations in the SWAT model (United States)

    The drainage significantly alters flow and nutrient pathways in small watersheds and reliable simulation at this scale is needed for effective planning of nutrient reduction strategies. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been widely utilized for prediction of flow and nutrient loads, but...

  18. Modelling land use change across elevation gradients in district Swat, Pakistan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qasim, M.; Termansen, M.; Hubacek, K.; Fleskens, L.


    District Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Documentation and analysis of land use change in this region is challenging due to very disparate accounts of the state of forest resources and limited accessible data. Such analysis is, however, important due to

  19. Improving SWAT model performance in the upper Blue Nile Basin using meteorological data integration and subcatchment discretization (United States)

    Polanco, Erwin Isaac; Fleifle, Amr; Ludwig, Ralf; Disse, Markus


    The Blue Nile Basin is confronted by land degradation problems, insufficient agricultural production, and a limited number of developed energy sources. Hydrological models provide useful tools to better understand such complex systems and improve water resources and land management practices. In this study, SWAT was used to model the hydrological processes in the upper Blue Nile Basin. Comparisons between a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a conventional ground weather dataset were done under two sub-basin discretization levels (30 and 87 sub-basins) to create an integrated dataset to improve the spatial and temporal limitations of both datasets. A SWAT error index (SEI) was also proposed to compare the reliability of the models under different discretization levels and weather datasets. This index offers an assessment of the model quality based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. SEI demonstrates to be a reliable additional and useful method to measure the level of error of SWAT. The results showed the discrepancies of using different weather datasets with different sub-basin discretization levels. Datasets under 30 sub-basins achieved Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) values of -0.51, 0.74, and 0.84; p factors of 0.53, 0.66, and 0.70; and r factors of 1.11, 0.83, and 0.67 for the CFSR, ground, and integrated datasets, respectively. Meanwhile, models under 87 sub-basins achieved NS values of -1.54, 0.43, and 0.80; p factors of 0.36, 0.67, and 0.77; r factors of 0.93, 0.68, and 0.54 for the CFSR, ground, and integrated datasets, respectively. Based on the obtained statistical results, the integrated dataset provides a better model of the upper Blue Nile Basin.

  20. A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. M. Easton


    Full Text Available A multi basin analysis of runoff and erosion in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia was conducted to elucidate sources of runoff and sediment. Erosion is arguably the most critical problem in the Blue Nile Basin, as it limits agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, degrades benthos in the Nile, and results in sedimentation of dams in downstream countries. A modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was developed to predict runoff and sediment losses from the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. The model simulates saturation excess runoff from the landscape using a simple daily water balance coupled to a topographic wetness index in ways that are consistent with observed runoff processes in the basin. The spatial distribution of landscape erosion is thus simulated more correctly. The model was parameterized in a nested design for flow at eight and sediment at three locations in the basin. Subbasins ranged in size from 1.3 to 174 000 km2, and interestingly, the partitioning of runoff and infiltrating flow could be predicted by topographic information. Model predictions showed reasonable accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranged from 0.53–0.92 with measured data across all sites except Kessie, where the water budget could not be closed; however, the timing of flow was well captured. Runoff losses increased with rainfall during the monsoonal season and were greatest from areas with shallow soils and large contributing areas. Analysis of model results indicate that upland landscape erosion dominated sediment delivery to the main stem of the Blue Nile in the early part of the growing season when tillage occurs and before the soil was wetted up and plant cover was established. Once plant cover was established in mid August landscape erosion was negligible and sediment export was dominated by channel processes and re-suspension of landscape sediment deposited early in the growing season. These results imply that targeting small

  1. Assessment of land-use change on streamflow using GIS, remote sensing and a physically-based model, SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. G. Dos Santos


    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the impact of the land-use changes between the periods 1967−1974 and 1997−2008 on the streamflow of Tapacurá catchment (northeastern Brazil using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. The results show that the most sensitive parameters were the baseflow, Manning factor, time of concentration and soil evaporation compensation factor, which affect the catchment hydrology. The model calibration and validation were performed on a monthly basis, and the streamflow simulation showed a good level of accuracy for both periods. The obtained R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for each period were respectively 0.82 and 0.81 for 1967−1974, and 0.93 and 0.92 for the period 1997−2008. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to the land cover has shown that the mean monthly flow, during the rainy seasons for 1967−1974, decreased when compared to 1997−2008.

  2. An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Alemayehu


    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is a globally applied river basin ecohydrological model used in a wide spectrum of studies, ranging from land use change and climate change impacts studies to research for the development of the best water management practices. However, SWAT has limitations in simulating the seasonal growth cycles for trees and perennial vegetation in the tropics, where rainfall rather than temperature is the dominant plant growth controlling factor. Our goal is to improve the vegetation growth module of SWAT for simulating the vegetation variables – such as the leaf area index (LAI – for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we present a modified SWAT version for the tropics (SWAT-T that uses a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI – a quotient of rainfall (P and reference evapotranspiration (ETr – to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania show that the SWAT-T-simulated LAI corresponds well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS LAI for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland. This indicates that the SMI is reliable for triggering a new annual growth cycle. The water balance components (evapotranspiration and streamflow simulated by the SWAT-T exhibit a good agreement with remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET-RS and observed streamflow. The SWAT-T model, with the proposed vegetation growth module for tropical ecosystems, can be a robust tool for simulating the vegetation growth dynamics in hydrologic models in tropical regions.

  3. Advancing computational methods for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Application for modeling climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina (United States)

    Ercan, Mehmet Bulent

    Watershed-scale hydrologic models are used for a variety of applications from flood prediction, to drought analysis, to water quality assessments. A particular challenge in applying these models is calibration of the model parameters, many of which are difficult to measure at the watershed-scale. A primary goal of this dissertation is to contribute new computational methods and tools for calibration of watershed-scale hydrologic models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, in particular. SWAT is a physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water quality and quantity. The dissertation follows a manuscript format meaning it is comprised of three separate but interrelated research studies. The first two research studies focus on SWAT model calibration, and the third research study presents an application of the new calibration methods and tools to study climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina using SWAT. The objective of the first two studies is to overcome computational challenges associated with calibration of SWAT models. The first study evaluates a parallel SWAT calibration tool built using the Windows Azure cloud environment and a parallel version of the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) calibration method modified to run in Azure. The calibration tool was tested for six model scenarios constructed using three watersheds of increasing size (the Eno, Upper Neuse, and Neuse) for both a 2 year and 10 year simulation duration. Leveraging the cloud as an on demand computing resource allowed for a significantly reduced calibration time such that calibration of the Neuse watershed went from taking 207 hours on a personal computer to only 3.4 hours using 256 cores in the Azure cloud. The second study aims at increasing SWAT model calibration efficiency by creating an open source, multi-objective calibration tool using the Non

  4. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)


    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  5. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin (United States)

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  6. Assessing the Water-Resources Potential of Istanbul by Using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Hydrological Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gokhan Cuceloglu


    Full Text Available Uncertainties due to climate change and population growth have created a critical situation for many megacities. Investigating spatio-temporal variability of water resources is, therefore, a critical initial step for water-resource management. This paper is a first study on the evaluation of water-budget components of water resources in Istanbul using a high-resolution hydrological model. In this work, the water resources of Istanbul and surrounding watersheds were modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, which is a continuous-time, semi-distributed, process-based model. The SWAT-CUP program was used for calibration/validation of the model with uncertainty analysis using the SUFI-2 algorithm over the period 1977–2013 at 25 gauge stations. The results reveal that the annual blue-water potential of Istanbul is 3.5 billion m3, whereas the green-water flow and storage are 2.9 billion m3 and 0.7 billion m3, respectively. Watersheds located on the Asian side of the Istanbul megacity yield more blue-water resources compared to the European side, and constitute 75% of the total potential water resources. The model highlights the water potential of the city under current circumstances and gives an insight into its spatial distribution over the region. This study provides a strong basis for forthcoming studies concerning better water-resources management practices, climate change and water-quality studies, as well as other socio-economic scenario analyses in the region.

  7. Quantifying the Contribution of On-Site Wastewater Treatment Systems to Stream Discharge Using the SWAT Model. (United States)

    Oliver, C W; Radcliffe, D E; Risse, L M; Habteselassie, M; Mukundan, R; Jeong, J; Hoghooghi, N


    In the southeastern United States, on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs) are widely used for domestic wastewater treatment. The degree to which OWTSs represent consumptive water use has been questioned in Georgia. The goal of this study was to estimate the effect of OWTSs on streamflow in a gauged watershed in Gwinnett County, Georgia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed-scale model, which includes a new OWTS algorithm. Streamflow was modeled with and without the presence of OWTSs. The model was calibrated using data from 1 Jan. 2003 to 31 Dec. 2006 and validated from 1 Jan. 2007 to 31 Dec. 2010 using the auto-calibration tool SWAT-CUP 4. The daily and monthly streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.49 and 0.71, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.37 and 0.68, respectively, for the validation period, indicating a satisfactory fit. Analysis of water balance output variables between simulations showed a 3.1% increase in total water yield at the watershed scale and a 5.9% increase at the subbasin scale for a high-density OWTS area. The percent change in water yield between simulations was the greatest in dry years, implying that the influence of OWTSs on the water yield is greatest under drought conditions. Mean OWTS water use was approximately 5.7% consumptive, contrary to common assumptions by water planning agencies in Georgia. Results from this study may be used by OWTS users and by watershed planners to understand the influence of OWTSs on water quantity within watersheds in this region. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  8. Development and application of SWAT to paddy rice district at watershed scale (United States)

    Shi, Yuzhi; Zhang, Chi; Zhou, Huicheng


    In irrigation district, especially in paddy rice fields, agricultural irrigation water use has a great influence on the natural water cycle process at watershed scale. In this study, SWAT model was modified to simulate irrigation water demand and quantify the irrigation return flow coefficient and the irrigation impact coefficient in paddy rice fields. Due to the lack of irrigation observed data, a multi-water source module was add to SWAT to build several feasible extraction scenarios, and a new algorithm of automatic irrigation application was implemented too. According to the simulation accuracy, the optimal scenario was selected to use in the new SWAT model, and then was applied to Changge Irrigation District in Hulan River Basin, northeast China. Comparisons between the enhanced model and old one were conducted at outlet cite, sifangtai. The results showed that the proposed SWAT has higher precision during calibration and validation periods, Nash coefficient of the simulated monthly flow was from 0.74 and 0.69 to 0.88 and 0.80 respectively. in addition, the annual averaged irrigation water and return water were 78 million m3 and 41 million m3, the irrigation return flow coefficient was 0.52, average consumption of irrigation water accounted for 10% of the total runoff. In general, the developed model had been greatly improved as compared to original model. Keywords: SWAT model, hydrological modeling, rice, irrigation return flow coefficient, irrigation impact coefficient

  9. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model (United States)

    Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.


    A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

  10. Hydrological simulation in a basin of typical tropical climate and soil using the SWAT model part I: Calibration and validation tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donizete dos R. Pereira


    New hydrological insights: The SWAT model was qualified for simulating the Pomba River sub-basin in the sites where rainfall representation was reasonable to good. The model can be used in the simulation of maximum, average and minimum annual daily streamflow based on the paired t-test, contributing with the water resources management of region, although the model still needs to be improved, mainly in the representativeness of rainfall, to give better estimates of extreme values.

  11. Hydrologic Response Unit Routing in SWAT to Simulate Effects of Vegetated Filter Strip for South-Korean Conditions Based on VFSMOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung Jae Lim


    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model has been used worldwide for many hydrologic and Non-Point Source (NPS Pollution analyses on a watershed scale. However, it has many limitations in simulating the Vegetative Filter Strip (VFS because it considers only ‘filter strip width’ when the model estimates sediment trapping efficiency and does not consider the routing of sediment with overland flow which is expected to maximize the sediment trapping efficiency from upper agricultural subwatersheds to lower spatially-explicit filter strips. Therefore, the SWAT overland flow option between landuse-subwatersheds with sediment routing capability was enhanced by modifying the SWAT watershed configuration and SWAT engine based on the numerical model VFSMOD applied to South-Korean conditions. The enhanced SWAT can simulate the VFS sediment trapping efficiency for South-Korean conditions in a manner similar to the desktop VFSMOD-w system. Due to this enhancement, SWAT is applicable to simulate the effects of overland flow from upper subwatersheds to reflect increased runoff volume at the lower subwatershed, which occurs in the field if no diversion channel is installed. In this study, the enhanced SWAT model was applied to small watersheds located at Jaun-ri in South-Korea to simulate a diversion channel and spatially-explicit VFS. Sediment can be reduced by 31%, 65%, and 68%, with a diversion channel, the VFS, and the VFS with diversion channel, respectively. The enhanced SWAT should be used in estimating site-specific effects on sediment reduction with diversion channels and VFS, instead of the currently available SWAT, which does not simulate sediment routing in overland flow and does not consider other sensitive factors affecting sediment reduction with VFS.

  12. Integrated modeling approach using SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source loading and in-stream conditions of fecal indicator bacteria. (United States)

    Ranatunga, T.


    Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is generally a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria (E.coli) source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads were input to the SWAT model in order to simulate the transport through the land and in-stream conditions. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on H-GAC's regional land use, population and household projections (up to 2040). Based on the in-stream reductions required to meet the water quality standards, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

  13. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir


    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

  14. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir


    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

  15. Evaluation of drought impact on groundwater recharge rate using SWAT and Hydrus models on an agricultural island in western Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jin


    Full Text Available Clarifying the variations of groundwater recharge response to a changing non-stationary hydrological process is important for efficiently managing groundwater resources, particularly in regions with limited precipitation that face the risk of water shortage. However, the rate of aquifer recharge is difficult to evaluate in terms of large annual-variations and frequency of flood events. In our research, we attempt to simulate related groundwater recharge processes under variable climate conditions using the SWAT Model, and validate the groundwater recharge using the Hydrus Model. The results show that annual average groundwater recharge comprised approximately 33% of total precipitation, however, larger variation was found for groundwater recharge and surface runoff compared to evapotranspiration, which fluctuated with annual precipitation variations. The annual variation of groundwater resources is shown to be related to precipitation. In spatial variations, the upstream is the main surface water discharge area; the middle and downstream areas are the main groundwater recharge areas. Validation by the Hydrus Model shows that the estimated and simulated groundwater levels are consistent in our research area. The groundwater level shows a quick response to the groundwater recharge rate. The rainfall intensity had a great impact on the changes of the groundwater level. Consequently, it was estimated that large spatial and temporal variation of the groundwater recharge rate would be affected by precipitation uncertainty in future.

  16. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model. (United States)

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas


    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Case Study: Effect of Climatic Characterization on River Discharge in an Alpine-Prealpine Catchment of the Spanish Pyrenees Using the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leticia Palazón


    Full Text Available The new challenges in assessment of water resources demand new approaches and tools, such as the use of hydrologic models, which could serve to assist managers in the prediction, planning and management of catchment water supplies in view of increased demand of water for irrigation and climatic change. Good characterization of the spatial patterns of climate variables is of paramount importance in hydrological modelling. This is especially so when modelling mountain environments which are characterized by strong altitudinal climate gradients. However, very often there is a poor distribution of climatic stations in these areas, which in many cases, results in under representation of high altitude areas with respect to climatic data. This results in the poor performance of the models. In the present study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to the Barasona reservoir catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees in order to assess the influence of different climatic characterizations in the monthly river discharges. Four simulations with different input data were assessed, using only the available climate data (A1; the former plus one synthetic dataset at a higher altitude (B1; and both plus the altitudinal climate gradient (A2 and B2. The model’s performance was evaluated against the river discharges for the representative periods of 2003–2005 and 1994–1996 by means of commonly used statistical measures. The best results were obtained using the altitudinal climate gradient alone (scenario A2. This study provided insight into the importance of taking into account the sources and the spatial distribution of weather data in modelling water resources in mountainous catchments.

  18. Macrophyte growth module for the SWAT model – impact of climate change and management on stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Erfurt, Jytte

    To access how multiple stressors affect the water quantity and quality and stream ecology at catchment scale under various management and climate change scenarios, we implemented macrophyte growth modules for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2012 (SWAT). The macrophyte growth module ori...

  19. Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Hanh Nguyen


    Full Text Available To assist water resource managers with future land use planning efforts, the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was applied to three catchments in South Australia that experience extreme low flow conditions. Particular land uses and management issues of interest included forest covers, known to affect water yields, and farm dams, known to intercept and change the hydrological dynamics in a catchment. The study achieved a satisfactory daily calibration when irrigation farm dams were incorporated in the model. For the catchment dominated by extreme low flows, a better daily simulation across a range of qualitative and quantitative metrics was gained using the base-flow static threshold optimization technique. Scenario analysis on effects of forest cover indicated an increase of surface flow and a reduction of base-flow when native eucalyptus lands were replaced by pastures and vice versa. A decreasing trend was observed for the overall water yield of catchments with more forest plantation due to the higher evapotranspiration (ET rate and the decline in surface flow. With regards to effects of irrigation farm dams, assessment on a daily time step suggested that a significant volume of water is stored in these systems with the water loss rate highest in June and July. On an annual basis, the model indicated that approximately 13.1% to 22.0% of water has been captured by farm dams for irrigation. However, the scenario analysis revealed that the purposes of use of farm dams rather than their volumetric capacities in the catchment determined the magnitude of effects on streamflows. Water extracted from farm dams for irrigation of orchards and vineyards are more likely to diminish streamflows than other land uses. Outputs from this study suggest that the water use restrictions from farm dams during recent drought periods were an effective tool to minimize impacts on streamflows.

  20. Hydrology and sediment yield calibration for the Barasona reservoir catchment (Spain) using SWAT (United States)

    Palazón, Leticia; Navas, Ana


    Hydrological and soil erosion models, as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), have become very useful tools and increasingly serve as vital components of integrated environmental assessments that provide information outside of direct field experiments and causal observation. The purpose of this study was to improve the calibration of SWAT model to use it in an alpine catchment as a simulator of processes related to water quality and soil erosion. SWAT is spatially semi-distributed, agro-hydrological model that operates on a daily time step (as a minimum) at basin scale. It is designed to predict the impact of management on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in ungaged catchments. SWAT provides physically based algorithms as an option to define many of the important components of the hydrologic cycle. The input requirements of the model are used to describe the climate, soil properties, topography, vegetation, and land management practices. SWAT analyzes small or large catchments by discretising into sub-basins, which are then further subdivided into hydrological response units (HRUs) with homogeneous land use, soil type and slope. SWAT model (SWAT2009) coupled with a GIS interface (ArcSWAT), was applied to the Barasona reservoir catchment located in the central Spanish Pyrenees. The 1509 km2 agro-forestry catchment presents a mountain type climate, an altitudinal range close to 3000 meters and a precipitation variation close to 1000 mm/km. The mountainous characteristics of the catchment, in addition to the scarcity of climate data in the region, require specific calibration for some processes. Snowfall and snowmelt are significant processes in the hydrologic regime of the area and were calibrated in a previous work. In this work some of the challenges of the catchment to model with SWAT which affected the hydrology and the sediment yield simulation were performed as improvement of the previous calibration. Two reservoirs, a karst system which

  1. Applied impulsive mathematical models

    CERN Document Server

    Stamova, Ivanka


    Using the theory of impulsive differential equations, this book focuses on mathematical models which reflect current research in biology, population dynamics, neural networks and economics. The authors provide the basic background from the fundamental theory and give a systematic exposition of recent results related to the qualitative analysis of impulsive mathematical models. Consisting of six chapters, the book presents many applicable techniques, making them available in a single source easily accessible to researchers interested in mathematical models and their applications. Serving as a valuable reference, this text is addressed to a wide audience of professionals, including mathematicians, applied researchers and practitioners.

  2. Simulation of lateral flow with SWAT (United States)

    Calibration of the SWAT model for the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) showed that percolation through the restrictive claypan layer, lateral flow above that layer, and redistribution of excess moisture up to the ground surface were not correctly simulated. In addition, surface runoff a...

  3. How to constrain multi-objective calibrations of the SWAT model using water balance components (United States)

    Automated procedures are often used to provide adequate fits between hydrologic model estimates and observed data. While the models may provide good fits based upon numeric criteria, they may still not accurately represent the basic hydrologic characteristics of the represented watershed. Here we ...

  4. Evaluating the SWAT model for a low-gradient forested watershed in coastal South Carolina (United States)

    D.M. Amatya; M.K. Jha.


    Modeling the hydrology of low�]gradient forested watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils of the coastal plain is a challenging task due to complexities in watershed delineation, microtopography, evapotranspiration, runoff generation processes and pathways including flooding and submergence caused by tropical storms, and complexity of vegetation species....

  5. Algorithm Theory - SWAT 2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    issues of theoretical algorithmics and applications in various fields including graph algorithms, computational geometry, scheduling, approximation algorithms, network algorithms, data storage and manipulation, combinatorics, sorting, searching, online algorithms, optimization, etc.......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th Scandinavian Workshop on Algorithm Theory, SWAT 2006, held in Riga, Latvia, in July 2006. The 36 revised full papers presented together with 3 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 154 submissions. The papers address all...

  6. Development of a comprehensive watershed model applied to study stream yield under drought conditions (United States)

    Perkins, S.P.; Sophocleous, M.


    We developed a model code to simulate a watershed's hydrology and the hydraulic response of an interconnected stream-aquifer system, and applied the model code to the Lower Republican River Basin in Kansas. The model code links two well-known computer programs: MODFLOW (modular 3-D flow model), which simulates ground water flow and stream-aquifer interaction; and SWAT (soil water assessment tool), a soil water budget simulator for an agricultural watershed. SWAT represents a basin as a collection of subbasins in terms of soil, land use, and weather data, and simulates each subbasin on a daily basis to determine runoff, percolation, evaporation, irrigation, pond seepages and crop growth. Because SWAT applies a lumped hydrologic model to each subbasin, spatial heterogeneities with respect to factors such as soil type and land use are not resolved geographically, but can instead be represented statistically. For the Republican River Basin model, each combination of six soil types and three land uses, referred to as a hydrologic response unit (HRU), was simulated with a separate execution of SWAT. A spatially weighted average was then taken over these results for each hydrologic flux and time step by a separate program, SWBAVG. We wrote a package for MOD-FLOW to associate each subbasin with a subset of aquifer grid cells and stream reaches, and to distribute the hydrologic fluxes given for each subbasin by SWAT and SWBAVG over MODFLOW's stream-aquifer grid to represent tributary flow, surface and ground water diversions, ground water recharge, and evapotranspiration from ground water. The Lower Republican River Basin model was calibrated with respect to measured ground water levels, streamflow, and reported irrigation water use. The model was used to examine the relative contributions of stream yield components and the impact on stream yield and base flow of administrative measures to restrict irrigation water use during droughts. Model results indicate that tributary

  7. Critical review of SWAT applications in the upper Nile basin countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. van Griensven


    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is an integrated river basin model that is widely applied within the Nile basin. Up to date, more than 20 peer-reviewed papers describe the use of SWAT for a variety of problems in the upper Nile basin countries, such as erosion modelling, land use and climate change impact modelling and water resources management. The majority of the studies are focused on locations in the tropical highlands in Ethiopia and around Lake Victoria. The popularity of SWAT is attributed to the fact that the tool is freely available and that it is readily applicable through the development of geographic information system (GIS based interfaces and its easy linkage to sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty analysis tools. The online and free availability of basic GIS data that are required for SWAT made its applicability more straightforward even in data-scarce areas. However, the easy use of SWAT may not always lead to appropriate models which is also a consequence of the quality of the available free databases in these regions. In this paper, we aim at critically reviewing the use of SWAT in the context of the modelling purpose and problem descriptions in the tropical highlands of the Nile basin countries. To evaluate the models that are described in journal papers, a number of criteria are used to evaluate the model set-up, model performances, physical representation of the model parameters, and the correctness of the hydrological model balance. On the basis of performance indicators, the majority of the SWAT models were classified as giving satisfactory to very good results. Nevertheless, the hydrological mass balances as reported in several papers contained losses that might not be justified. Several papers also reported the use of unrealistic parameter values. More worrying is that many papers lack this information. For this reason, most of the reported SWAT models have to be evaluated critically. An important gap is

  8. Critical review of the application of SWAT in the upper Nile Basin countries (United States)

    van Griensven, A.; Ndomba, P.; Yalew, S.; Kilonzo, F.


    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological simulation tool that is widely applied within the Nile basin. Up to date, more than 20 peer reviewed papers describe the use of SWAT for a variety of problems in the upper Nile basin countries, such as erosion modeling, land use modeling, climate change impact modeling and water resources management. The majority of the studies are clustered in the tropical highlands in Ethiopia and around Lake Victoria. The popularity of SWAT is attributed to the fact that the tool is freely available and that it is readily applicable through the development of Geographic Information System (GIS) based interfaces and its easy linkage to sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty analysis tools. The online and free availability of basic GIS data that are required for SWAT made its applicability more straight forward even in data scarce areas. However, the easy use of SWAT may not always lead to knowledgeable models. In this paper, we aim at critically reviewing the use of SWAT in the context of the modeling purpose and problem descriptions in the tropical highlands of the Nile Basin countries. A number of criteria are used to evaluate the model set-up, model performances, physical representation of the model parameters, and the correctness of the hydrological model balance. On the basis of performance indicators, the majority of the SWAT models were classified as giving satisfactory to very good results. Nevertheless, the hydrological mass balances as reported in several papers contained losses that might not be justified. Several papers also reported unrealistic parameter values. More worrying is that many papers lack this information. For this reason, it is difficult to give an overall positive evaluation to most of the reported SWAT models. An important gap is the lack of attention that is given to the vegetation and crop processes. None of the papers reported any adaptation to the crop parameters, or any crop related

  9. Cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis of BMPs in controlling agricultural nonpoint source pollution in China based on the SWAT model. (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Zhang, Peipei; Wang, Xiujuan; Wang, Jiawei; Yu, Wenwen; Shen, Zhenyao


    Best management practices (BMPs) have been widely used in managing agricultural nonpoint source pollution (ANSP) at the watershed level. Most BMPs are related to land use, tillage management, and fertilizer levels. In total, seven BMP scenarios (Reforest1, Reforest2, No Tillage, Contour tillage, and fertilizer level 1-4) that are related to these three factors were estimated in this study. The objectives were to investigate the effectiveness and cost-benefit of these BMPs on ANSP reduction in a large tributary of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, which are based on the simulation results of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results indicated that reforestation was the most economically efficient of all BMPs, and its net benefits were up to CNY 4.36×10(7) years(-1) (about USD 7.08×10(6) years(-1)). Regarding tillage practices, no tillage practice was more environmentally friendly than other tillage practices, and contour tillage was more economically efficient. Reducing the local fertilizer level to 0.8-fold less than that of 2010 can yield a satisfactory environmental and economic efficiency. Reforestation and fertilizer management were more effective in reducing total phosphorus (TP), whereas tillage management was more effective in reducing total nitrogen (TN). When CNY 10,000 (about USD 162) was applied to reforestation, no tillage, contour tillage, and an 0.8-fold reduction in the fertilizer level, then annual TN load can be reduced by 0.08, 0.16, 0.11, and 0.04 t and annual TP load can be reduced by 0.04, 0.02, 0.01 and 0.03 t, respectively. The cost-benefit (CB) ratios of the BMPs were as follows: reforestation (207 %) > contour tillage (129 %) > no tillage (114 %) > fertilizer management (96 and 89 %). The most economical and effective BMPs can be designated as follows: BMP1 (returning arable land with slopes greater than 25° to forests and those lands with slopes of 15-25° to orchards), BMP2 (implementing no tillage

  10. Applied stochastic modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Morgan, Byron JT; Tanner, Martin Abba; Carlin, Bradley P


    Introduction and Examples Introduction Examples of data sets Basic Model Fitting Introduction Maximum-likelihood estimation for a geometric model Maximum-likelihood for the beta-geometric model Modelling polyspermy Which model? What is a model for? Mechanistic models Function Optimisation Introduction MATLAB: graphs and finite differences Deterministic search methods Stochastic search methods Accuracy and a hybrid approach Basic Likelihood ToolsIntroduction Estimating standard errors and correlations Looking at surfaces: profile log-likelihoods Confidence regions from profiles Hypothesis testing in model selectionScore and Wald tests Classical goodness of fit Model selection biasGeneral Principles Introduction Parameterisation Parameter redundancy Boundary estimates Regression and influence The EM algorithm Alternative methods of model fitting Non-regular problemsSimulation Techniques Introduction Simulating random variables Integral estimation Verification Monte Carlo inference Estimating sampling distributi...

  11. SWATMOD-PREP: Graphical user interface for preparing coupled SWAT-modflow simulations (United States)

    This paper presents SWATMOD-Prep, a graphical user interface that couples a SWAT watershed model with a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. The interface is based on a recently published SWAT-MODFLOW code that couples the models via mapping schemes. The spatial layout of SWATMOD-Prep guides the user t...

  12. Applied Bayesian modelling

    CERN Document Server

    Congdon, Peter


    This book provides an accessible approach to Bayesian computing and data analysis, with an emphasis on the interpretation of real data sets. Following in the tradition of the successful first edition, this book aims to make a wide range of statistical modeling applications accessible using tested code that can be readily adapted to the reader's own applications. The second edition has been thoroughly reworked and updated to take account of advances in the field. A new set of worked examples is included. The novel aspect of the first edition was the coverage of statistical modeling using WinBU

  13. Development of stream-subsurface flow module in sub-daily simulation of Escherichia coli using SWAT (United States)

    Kim, Minjeong; Boithias, Laurie; Cho, Kyung Hwa; Silvera, Norbert; Thammahacksa, Chanthamousone; Latsachack, Keooudone; Rochelle-Newall, Emma; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Pierret, Alain; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; Ribolzi, Olivier


    Water contaminated with pathogenic bacteria poses a large threat to public health, especially in the rural areas in the tropics where sanitation and drinking water facilities are often lacking. Several studies have used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the export of in-stream bacteria at a watershed-scale. However, SWAT is limited to in-stream processes, such as die-off, resuspension and, deposition; and it is usually implemented on a daily time step using the SCS Curve Number method, making it difficult to explore the dynamic fate and transport of bacteria during short but intense events such as flash floods in tropical humid montane headwaters. To address these issues, this study implemented SWAT on an hourly time step using the Green-Ampt infiltration method, and tested the effects of subsurface flow (LATQ+GWQ in SWAT) on bacterial dynamics. We applied the modified SWAT model to the 60-ha Houay Pano catchment in Northern Laos, using sub-daily rainfall and discharge measurements, electric conductivity-derived fractions of overland and subsurface flows, suspended sediments concentrations, and the number of fecal indicator organism Escherichia coli monitored at the catchment outlet from 2011 to 2013. We also took into account land use change by delineating the watershed with the 3-year composite land use map. The results show that low subsurface flow of less than 1 mm recovered the underestimation of E. coli numbers during the dry season, while high subsurface flow caused an overestimation during the wet season. We also found that it is more reasonable to apply the stream-subsurface flow interaction to simulate low in-stream bacteria counts. Using fecal bacteria to identify and understand the possible interactions between overland and subsurface flows may well also provide some insight into the fate of other bacteria, such as those involved in biogeochemical fluxes both in-stream and in the adjacent soils and hyporheic zones.

  14. Comparison of SWAT and GeoWEPP model in predicting the impact of stone bunds on runoff and erosion processes in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands (United States)

    Demelash, Nigus; Flagler, Jared; Renschler, Chris; Strohmeier, Stefan; Holzmann, Hubert; Feras, Ziadat; Addis, Hailu; Zucca, Claudio; Bayu, Wondimu; Klik, Andreas


    Soil degradation is a major issue in the Ethiopian highlands which are most suitable for agriculture and, therefore, support a major part of human population and livestock. Heavy rainstorms during the rainy season in summer create soil erosion and runoff processes which affect soil fertility and food security. In the last years programs for soil conservation and afforestation were initiated by the Ethiopian government to reduce erosion risk, retain water in the landscape and improve crop yields. The study was done in two adjacent watersheds in the Northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. One of the watersheds is developed by soil and water conservation structures (stone bunds) in 2011 and the other one is without soil and water conservation structures. Spatial distribution of soil textures and other soil properties were determined in the field and in the laboratory and a soil map was derived. A land use map was evaluated based on satellite images and ground truth data. A Digital Elevation Model of the watershed was developed based on conventional terrestrial surveying using a total station. At the outlet of the watersheds weirs with cameras were installed to measure surface runoff. During each event runoff samples were collected and sediment concentration was analyzed. The objective of this study is 1) to assess the impact of stone bunds on runoff and erosion processes by using simulation models, and 2) to compare the performance of two soil erosion models in predicting the measurements. The selected erosion models were the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Geospatial Interface to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP). The simulation models were calibrated/verified for the 2011-2013 periods and validated with 2014-2015 data. Results of this comparison will be presented.

  15. Fecal bacteria source characterization and sensitivity analysis of SWAT 2005 (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2005 includes a microbial sub-model to simulate fecal bacteria transport at the watershed scale. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to characterize fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) source loads and to assess the model sensitivity t...

  16. Quantifying the Uncertainty in Streamflow Predictions Using Swat for Brazos-Colorado Coastal Watershed, Texas (United States)

    Mandal, D.; Bhatia, N.; Srivastav, R. K.


    Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most comprehensive hydrologic models to simulate streamflow for a watershed. The two major inputs for a SWAT model are: (i) Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and (ii) Land Use and Land Cover Maps (LULC). This study aims to quantify the uncertainty in streamflow predictions using SWAT for San Bernard River in Brazos-Colorado coastal watershed, Texas, by incorporating the respective datasets from different sources: (i) DEM data will be obtained from ASTER GDEM V2, GMTED2010, NHD DEM, and SRTM DEM datasets with ranging resolution from 1/3 arc-second to 30 arc-second, and (ii) LULC data will be obtained from GLCC V2, MRLC NLCD2011, NOAA's C-CAP, USGS GAP, and TCEQ databases. Weather variables (Precipitation and Max-Min Temperature at daily scale) will be obtained from National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and SWAT in-built STASGO tool will be used to obtain the soil maps. The SWAT model will be calibrated using SWAT-CUP SUFI-2 approach and its performance will be evaluated using the statistical indices of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), ratio of Root-Mean-Square-Error to standard deviation of observed streamflow (RSR), and Percent-Bias Error (PBIAS). The study will help understand the performance of SWAT model with varying data sources and eventually aid the regional state water boards in planning, designing, and managing hydrologic systems.

  17. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Global Applications


    Arnold, J.; Srinivasan, R; Neitsch, S. (ed.); George, C.; Abbaspour, K.; Hao, F.H.; van Griensven, A.; Gosain, A.; Debels, P.; N.W. Kim; Somura, H.; Ella, Victor B.; Leon, L.; Jintrawet, A.; Manuel R. Reyes


    Summary: SWAT,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is a river basin, or watershed, scale model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. [from the editors' preamble] LTRA-5 (Agroforestry and Sustainable Vegetable Production)

  18. Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Xuesong


    As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio_E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio_LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWAT model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT’s performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests.

  19. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean


    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e

  20. Improving the Performance of Temperature Index Snowmelt Model of SWAT by Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data (United States)

    Yang, Yan; Onishi, Takeo; Hiramatsu, Ken


    Simulation results of the widely used temperature index snowmelt model are greatly influenced by input air temperature data. Spatially sparse air temperature data remain the main factor inducing uncertainties and errors in that model, which limits its applications. Thus, to solve this problem, we created new air temperature data using linear regression relationships that can be formulated based on MODIS land surface temperature data. The Soil Water Assessment Tool model, which includes an improved temperature index snowmelt module, was chosen to test the newly created data. By evaluating simulation performance for daily snowmelt in three test basins of the Amur River, performance of the newly created data was assessed. The coefficient of determination (R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used for evaluation. The results indicate that MODIS land surface temperature data can be used as a new source for air temperature data creation. This will improve snow simulation using the temperature index model in an area with sparse air temperature observations. PMID:25165746

  1. Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China) (United States)

    Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping


    Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.

  2. Soil Water and Temperature System (SWATS) Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, D


    The soil water and temperature system (SWATS) provides vertical profiles of soil temperature, soil-water potential, and soil moisture as a function of depth below the ground surface at hourly intervals. The temperature profiles are measured directly by in situ sensors at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the SGP climate research site. The soil-water potential and soil moisture profiles are derived from measurements of soil temperature rise in response to small inputs of heat. Atmospheric scientists use the data in climate models to determine boundary conditions and to estimate the surface energy flux. The data are also useful to hydrologists, soil scientists, and agricultural scientists for determining the state of the soil.

  3. Improvement of the R-SWAT-FME framework to support multiple variables and multi-objective functions (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang


    Application of numerical models is a common practice in the environmental field for investigation and prediction of natural and anthropogenic processes. However, process knowledge, parameter identifiability, sensitivity, and uncertainty analyses are still a challenge for large and complex mathematical models such as the hydrological/water quality model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, the previously developed R program language-SWAT-Flexible Modeling Environment (R-SWAT-FME) was improved to support multiple model variables and objectives at multiple time steps (i.e., daily, monthly, and annually). This expansion is significant because there is usually more than one variable (e.g., water, nutrients, and pesticides) of interest for environmental models like SWAT. To further facilitate its easy use, we also simplified its application requirements without compromising its merits, such as the user-friendly interface. To evaluate the performance of the improved framework, we used a case study focusing on both streamflow and nitrate nitrogen in the Upper Iowa River Basin (above Marengo) in the United States. Results indicated that the R-SWAT-FME performs well and is comparable to the built-in auto-calibration tool in multi-objective model calibration. Overall, the enhanced R-SWAT-FME can be useful for the SWAT community, and the methods we used can also be valuable for wrapping potential R packages with other environmental models.

  4. Calibration of Spatially Distributed Hydrological Processes and Model Parameters in SWAT Using Remote Sensing Data and an Auto-Calibration Procedure: A Case Study in a Vietnamese River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Thanh Ha


    Full Text Available In this paper, evapotranspiration (ET and leaf area index (LAI were used to calibrate the SWAT model, whereas remotely sensed precipitation and other climatic parameters were used as forcing data for the 6300 km2 Day Basin, a tributary of the Red River in Vietnam. The efficacy of the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2 parameter sensitivity and optimization model was tested with area specific remote sensing input parameters for every Hydrological Response Units (HRU, rather than with measurements of river flow representing a large set of HRUs, i.e., a bulk calibration. Simulated monthly ET correlations with remote sensing estimates showed an R2 = 0.71, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE = 0.65, and Kling Gupta Efficiency KGE = 0.80 while monthly LAI showed correlations of R2 = 0.59, NSE = 0.57 and KGE = 0.83 over a five-year validation period. Accumulated modelled ET over the 5-year calibration period amounted to 5713 mm compared to 6015 mm of remotely sensed ET, yielding a difference of 302 mm (5.3%. The monthly flow at two flow measurement stations were adequately estimated (R2 = 0.78 and 0.55, NSE = 0.71 and 0.63, KGE = 0.59 and 0.75 for Phu Ly and Ninh Binh, respectively. This outcome demonstrates the capability of SWAT model to obtain spatial and accurate simulation of eco-hydrological processes, also when rivers are ungauged and the water withdrawal system is complex.

  5. Guidelines for using sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration tools for multi-gage or multi-step calibration in SWAT (United States)

    Autocalibration of a water quality model such as SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) can be a powerful, labor-saving tool. When multi-gage or multi-pollutant calibration is desired, autocalibration is essential because the time involved in manual calibration becomes prohibitive. The ArcSWAT Interf...

  6. Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Model on a small tropical island (Great River Watershed, Jamaica as a tool in Integrated Watershed and Coastal Zone Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orville P. Grey


    Full Text Available The Great River Watershed, located in north-west Jamaica, is critical for development, particularly for housing, tourism, agriculture, and mining. It is a source of sediment and nutrient loading to the coastal environment including the Montego Bay Marine Park. We produced a modeling framework using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and GIS. The calculated model performance statistics for high flow discharge yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE value of 0.68 and a R² value of 0.70 suggesting good measured and simulated (calibrated discharge correlation. Calibration and validation results for streamflow were similar to the observed streamflows. For the dry season the simulated urban landuse scenario predicted an increase in surface runoff in excess of 150%. During the wet season it is predicted to range from 98 to 234% presenting a significant risk of flooding, erosion and other environmental issues. The model should be used for the remaining 25 watersheds in Jamaica and elsewhere in the Caribbean. The models suggests that projected landuse changes will have serious impacts on available water (streamflow, stream health, potable water treatment, flooding and sensitive coastal ecosystems.

  7. Assimilating Remotely Sensed Surface Soil Moisture into SWAT using Ensemble Kalman Filter (United States)

    In this study, a 1-D Ensemble Kalman Filter has been used to update the soil moisture states of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Experiments were conducted for the Cobb Creek Watershed in southeastern Oklahoma for 2006-2008. Assimilation of in situ data proved limited success in the ...

  8. Assessment of Flood Frequency Alteration by Dam Construction via SWAT Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong Eun Lee


    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of the upstream Soyanggang and Chungju multi-purpose dams on the frequency of downstream floods in the Han River basin, South Korea. A continuous hydrological model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, was used to individually simulate regulated and unregulated daily streamflows entering the Paldang Dam, which is located at the outlet of the basin of interest. The simulation of the regulated flows by the Soyanggang and Chungju dams was calibrated with observed inflow data to the Paldang Dam. The estimated daily flood peaks were used for a frequency analysis, using the extreme Type-I distribution, for which the parameters were estimated via the L-moment method. This novel approach was applied to the study area to assess the effects of the dams on downstream floods. From the results, the two upstream dams were found to be able to reduce downstream floods by approximately 31% compared to naturally occurring floods without dam regulation. Furthermore, an approach to estimate the flood frequency based on the hourly extreme peak flow data, obtained by combining SWAT simulation and Sangal’s method, was proposed and then verified by comparison with the observation-based results. The increased percentage of floods estimated with hourly simulated data for the three scenarios of dam regulation ranged from 16.1% to 44.1%. The reduced percentages were a little higher than those for the daily-based flood frequency estimates. The developed approach allowed for better understanding of flood frequency, as influenced by dam regulation on a relatively large watershed scale.

  9. Geostatistical methods applied to field model residuals

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Maule, Fox; Mosegaard, K.; Olsen, Nils

    consists of measurement errors and unmodelled signal), and is typically assumed to be uncorrelated and Gaussian distributed. We have applied geostatistical methods to analyse the residuals of the Oersted(09d/04) field model [], which is based......The geomagnetic field varies on a variety of time- and length scales, which are only rudimentary considered in most present field models. The part of the observed field that can not be explained by a given model, the model residuals, is often considered as an estimate of the data uncertainty (which....... Once these are known, they can be used in the modelling process to improve the model, estimate its uncertainty and eventually determine the optimal sampling rate in time and space. The uncertainty estimate on the field model can be used to estimate the uncertainty on quantities deduced from the field...

  10. Applying incentive sensitization models to behavioral addiction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rømer Thomsen, Kristine; Fjorback, Lone; Møller, Arne


    The incentive sensitization theory is a promising model for understanding the mechanisms underlying drug addiction, and has received support in animal and human studies. So far the theory has not been applied to the case of behavioral addictions like Gambling Disorder, despite sharing clinical...

  11. Applied probability models with optimization applications

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon M


    Concise advanced-level introduction to stochastic processes that frequently arise in applied probability. Largely self-contained text covers Poisson process, renewal theory, Markov chains, inventory theory, Brownian motion and continuous time optimization models, much more. Problems and references at chapter ends. ""Excellent introduction."" - Journal of the American Statistical Association. Bibliography. 1970 edition.

  12. Applied Integer Programming Modeling and Solution

    CERN Document Server

    Chen, Der-San; Dang, Yu


    An accessible treatment of the modeling and solution of integer programming problems, featuring modern applications and software In order to fully comprehend the algorithms associated with integer programming, it is important to understand not only how algorithms work, but also why they work. Applied Integer Programming features a unique emphasis on this point, focusing on problem modeling and solution using commercial software. Taking an application-oriented approach, this book addresses the art and science of mathematical modeling related to the mixed integer programming (MIP) framework and

  13. Applied research in uncertainty modeling and analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Ayyub, Bilal


    Uncertainty has been a concern to engineers, managers, and scientists for many years. For a long time uncertainty has been considered synonymous with random, stochastic, statistic, or probabilistic. Since the early sixties views on uncertainty have become more heterogeneous. In the past forty years numerous tools that model uncertainty, above and beyond statistics, have been proposed by several engineers and scientists. The tool/method to model uncertainty in a specific context should really be chosen by considering the features of the phenomenon under consideration, not independent of what is known about the system and what causes uncertainty. In this fascinating overview of the field, the authors provide broad coverage of uncertainty analysis/modeling and its application. Applied Research in Uncertainty Modeling and Analysis presents the perspectives of various researchers and practitioners on uncertainty analysis and modeling outside their own fields and domain expertise. Rather than focusing explicitly on...

  14. Applied Mathematics, Modelling and Computational Science

    CERN Document Server

    Kotsireas, Ilias; Makarov, Roman; Melnik, Roderick; Shodiev, Hasan


    The Applied Mathematics, Modelling, and Computational Science (AMMCS) conference aims to promote interdisciplinary research and collaboration. The contributions in this volume cover the latest research in mathematical and computational sciences, modeling, and simulation as well as their applications in natural and social sciences, engineering and technology, industry, and finance. The 2013 conference, the second in a series of AMMCS meetings, was held August 26–30 and organized in cooperation with AIMS and SIAM, with support from the Fields Institute in Toronto, and Wilfrid Laurier University. There were many young scientists at AMMCS-2013, both as presenters and as organizers. This proceedings contains refereed papers contributed by the participants of the AMMCS-2013 after the conference. This volume is suitable for researchers and graduate students, mathematicians and engineers, industrialists, and anyone who would like to delve into the interdisciplinary research of applied and computational mathematics ...

  15. Soil Water and Temperature System (SWATS) Instrument Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, David R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)


    The soil water and temperature system (SWATS) provides vertical profiles of soil temperature, soil-water potential, and soil moisture as a function of depth below the ground surface at hourly intervals. The temperature profiles are measured directly by in situ sensors at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The soil-water potential and soil moisture profiles are derived from measurements of soil temperature rise in response to small inputs of heat. Atmospheric scientists use the data in climate models to determine boundary conditions and to estimate the surface energy flux. The data are also useful to hydrologists, soil scientists, and agricultural scientists for determining the state of the soil.

  16. Hydrological effects of the increased CO2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Liu, S.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.


    Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO2 and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO2 concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO2 based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO2 concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (2071–2100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.

  17. Analyses of PWR spent fuel composition using SCALE and SWAT code systems to find correction factors for criticality safety applications adopting burnup credit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Hee Sung; Suyama, Kenya; Mochizuki, Hiroki; Okuno, Hiroshi; Nomura, Yasushi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment


    The isotopic composition calculations were performed for 26 spent fuel samples from the Obrigheim PWR reactor and 55 spent fuel samples from 7 PWR reactors using the SAS2H module of the SCALE4.4 code system with 27, 44 and 238 group cross-section libraries and the SWAT code system with the 107 group cross-section library. For the analyses of samples from the Obrigheim PWR reactor, geometrical models were constructed for each of SCALE4.4/SAS2H and SWAT. For the analyses of samples from 7 PWR reactors, the geometrical model already adopted in the SCALE/SAS2H was directly converted to the model of SWAT. The four kinds of calculation results were compared with the measured data. For convenience, the ratio of the measured to calculated values was used as a parameter. When the ratio is less than unity, the calculation overestimates the measurement, and the ratio becomes closer to unity, they have a better agreement. For many important nuclides for burnup credit criticality safety evaluation, the four methods applied in this study showed good coincidence with measurements in general. More precise observations showed, however: (1) Less unity ratios were found for Pu-239 and -241 for selected 16 samples out of the 26 samples from the Obrigheim reactor (10 samples were deselected because their burnups were measured with Cs-137 non-destructive method, less reliable than Nd-148 method the rest 16 samples were measured with); (2) Larger than unity ratios were found for Am-241 and Cm-242 for both the 16 and 55 samples; (3) Larger than unity ratios were found for Sm-149 for the 55 samples; (4) SWAT was generally accompanied by larger ratios than those of SAS2H with some exceptions. Based on the measured-to-calculated ratios for 71 samples of a combined set in which 16 selected samples and 55 samples were included, the correction factors that should be multiplied to the calculated isotopic compositions were generated for a conservative estimate of the neutron multiplication factor

  18. Applying incentive sensitization models to behavioral addiction. (United States)

    Rømer Thomsen, Kristine; Fjorback, Lone O; Møller, Arne; Lou, Hans C


    The incentive sensitization theory is a promising model for understanding the mechanisms underlying drug addiction, and has received support in animal and human studies. So far the theory has not been applied to the case of behavioral addictions like Gambling Disorder, despite sharing clinical symptoms and underlying neurobiology. We examine the relevance of this theory for Gambling Disorder and point to predictions for future studies. The theory promises a significant contribution to the understanding of behavioral addiction and opens new avenues for treatment. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Applied Regression Modeling A Business Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pardoe, Iain


    An applied and concise treatment of statistical regression techniques for business students and professionals who have little or no background in calculusRegression analysis is an invaluable statistical methodology in business settings and is vital to model the relationship between a response variable and one or more predictor variables, as well as the prediction of a response value given values of the predictors. In view of the inherent uncertainty of business processes, such as the volatility of consumer spending and the presence of market uncertainty, business professionals use regression a

  20. Commercial Consolidation Model Applied to Transport Infrastructure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Guilherme de Aragão, J.J.; Santos Fontes Pereira, L. dos; Yamashita, Y.


    Since the 1990s, transport concessions, including public-private partnerships (PPPs), have been increasingly adopted by governments as an alternative for financing and operations in public investments, especially in transport infrastructure. The advantage pointed out by proponents of these models lies in merging the expertise and capital of the private sector to the public interest. Several arrangements are possible and have been employed in different cases. After the duration of the first PPP contracts in transportation, many authors have analyzed the success and failure factors of partnerships. The occurrence of failures in some stages of the process can greatly encumber the public administration, incurring losses to the fiscal responsibility of the competent bodies. This article aims to propose a new commercial consolidation model applied to transport infrastructure to ensure fiscal sustainability and overcome the weaknesses of current models. Initially, a systematic review of the literature covering studies on transport concessions between 1990 and 2015 is offered, where the different approaches between various countries are compared and the critical success factors indicated in the studies are identified. In the subsequent part of the paper, an approach for the commercial consolidation of the infrastructure concessions is presented, where the concessionary is paid following a finalistic performance model, which includes the overall fiscal balance of regional growth. Finally, the papers analyses the usefulness of the model in coping with the critical success factors explained before. (Author)

  1. Sensitivity of different satellites gridded data over Brahmaputra Basin byusing Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) (United States)

    Paul, S.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Islam, A. S.


    More than half a billion people of India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan are dependent on the water resources of the Brahmaputra river. With climatic and anthropogenic change of this basin region is becoming a cause of concern for future water management and sharing with transboundary riparian nations. To address such issues, robust watershed runoff modeling of the basin is essential. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a widely used semi-distributed watershed model that is capable of analyzing surface runoff, stream flow, water yield, sediment and nutrient transport in a large river basin such as Brahmaputra, but the performance of runoff the model depends on the accuracy of input precipitation datasets. But for a transboundary basin like Brahmaputra, precipitation gauge data from upstream areas is either not available or not accessible to the scientific communities. Satellite rainfall products are very effective where radar datasets are absent and conventional rain gauges are sparse. However, the sensitivity of the SWAT model to different satellite data products as well as hydrologic parameters for the Brahmaputra Basin are largely unknown. Thus in this study, a comparative analysis with different satellite data product has been made to assess the runoff using SWAT model. Here, datafrom three sources: TRMM, APHRDOTIE and GPCP were used as input precipitation satellite data set and ERA-Interim was used as input temperature dataset from 1998 to 2009. The main methods used in modeling the hydrologic processes in SWAT were curve number method for runoff estimating, Penman-Monteith method for PET and Muskingum method for channel routing. Our preliminary results have revealed thatthe TRMM data product is more accurate than APHRODITE and GPCP for runoff analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies for both calibration and validation period from TRMM data are 0.83 and 0.72, respectively.

  2. FEST-C 1.3 & 2.0 for CMAQ Bi-directional NH3, Crop Production, and SWAT Modeling (United States)

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) is developed in a Linux environment, a festc JAVA interface that integrates 14 tools and scenario management options facilitating land use/crop data processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system ...

  3. Using SWAT and Fuzzy TOPSIS to Assess the Impact of Climate Change in the Headwaters of the Segura River Basin (SE Spain

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Javier Senent-Aparicio


    Full Text Available The Segura River Basin is one of the most water-stressed basins in Mediterranean Europe. If we add to the actual situation that most climate change projections forecast important decreases in water resource availability in the Mediterranean region, the situation will become totally unsustainable. This study assessed the impact of climate change in the headwaters of the Segura River Basin using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT with bias-corrected precipitation and temperature data from two Regional Climate Models (RCMs for the medium term (2041–2070 and the long term (2071–2100 under two emission scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5. Bias correction was performed using the distribution mapping approach. The fuzzy TOPSIS technique was applied to rank a set of nine GCM–RCM combinations, choosing the climate models with a higher relative closeness. The study results show that the SWAT performed satisfactorily for both calibration (NSE = 0.80 and validation (NSE = 0.77 periods. Comparing the long-term and baseline (1971–2000 periods, precipitation showed a negative trend between 6% and 32%, whereas projected annual mean temperatures demonstrated an estimated increase of 1.5–3.3 °C. Water resources were estimated to experience a decrease of 2%–54%. These findings provide local water management authorities with very useful information in the face of climate change.

  4. Terahertz spectroscopy applied to food model systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Uffe

    Water plays a crucial role in the quality of food. Apart from the natural water content of a food product, the state of that water is very important. Water can be found integrated into the biological material or it can be added during production of the product. Currently it is difficult to differ...... to differentiate between these types of water in subsequent quality controls. This thesis describes terahertz time-domain spectroscopy applied on aqueous food model systems, with particular focus on ethanol-water mixtures and confined water pools in inverse micelles.......Water plays a crucial role in the quality of food. Apart from the natural water content of a food product, the state of that water is very important. Water can be found integrated into the biological material or it can be added during production of the product. Currently it is difficult...

  5. Conformal Field Theory Applied to Loop Models (United States)

    Jacobsen, Jesper Lykke

    The application of methods of quantum field theory to problems of statistical mechanics can in some sense be traced back to Onsager's 1944 solution [1] of the two-dimensional Ising model. It does however appear fair to state that the 1970's witnessed a real gain of momentum for this approach, when Wilson's ideas on scale invariance [2] were applied to study critical phenomena, in the form of the celebrated renormalisation group [3]. In particular, the so-called ɛ expansion permitted the systematic calculation of critical exponents [4], as formal power series in the space dimensionality d, below the upper critical dimension d c . An important lesson of these efforts was that critical exponents often do not depend on the precise details of the microscopic interactions, leading to the notion of a restricted number of distinct universality classes.

  6. Evaluation of Distributed Model Structures in Catchment Scale Modeling to Capture Heterogeneous Landscape Characteristics (United States)

    Julich, S.; Breuer, L.; Vaché, K. B.; Frede, H.


    The ability of a model to capture dominant ecological and hydrological processes is a prerequisite for the use of the model in studying impacts of landuse change on the water balance and nutrient fluxes from a watershed. However, in many cases, available model structures do not adequately represent processes of interest. In these cases, a pragmatic response is to revise the structure to better represent key processes. In this paper we outline a model application strategy designed to inject additional realism into a commonly applied model structure. Here we focus on the SWAT model in an application to the mesoscale (514 km 2) Wetter catchment, in central Germany. The catchment is characterized by a heterogeneous landscape structure and characteristics. The southwestern part is formed by a low mountain range with shallow soils over bedrock and steep slopes. Here lateral subsurface stormflow appears to be the dominant runoff generation process. The central and north- eastern regions of the basin are characterized by deep loess born soils and shallow slopes. We hypothesize that the much larger storage potential of the soils promotes vertical infiltration and storage, and that lateral runoff is much less significant. We utilize a variety of SWAT versions to evaluate the potential effects of this hypothesis on the capacity of the model to capture the measured runoff response. Our results indicate that the original SWAT- structure as well as the SWAT-G structure (which was applied to other low mountain catchments in Germany) are not able to acceptably represent the hydrograph. However, a hybrid of the two structures, specifically designed to reflect differences between the mountainous regions and the more gentle topography does result in a satisfactory representation of the hydrograph. The inclusion of elements from of both model structures (original SWAT and SWAT-G) seems to be the best way to reflect our hydrological process understanding, producing results which

  7. A Cooperation Model Applied in a Kindergarten

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose I. Rodriguez


    Full Text Available The need for collaboration in a global world has become a key factor for success for many organizations and individuals. However in several regions and organizations in the world, it has not happened yet. One of the settings where major obstacles occur for collaboration is in the business arena, mainly because of competitive beliefs that cooperation could hurt profitability. We have found such behavior in a wide variety of countries, in advanced and developing economies. Such cultural behaviors or traits characterized entrepreneurs by working in isolation, avoiding the possibilities of building clusters to promote regional development. The needs to improve the essential abilities that conforms cooperation are evident. It is also very difficult to change such conduct with adults. So we decided to work with children to prepare future generations to live in a cooperative world, so badly hit by greed and individualism nowadays. We have validated that working with children at an early age improves such behavior. This paper develops a model to enhance the essential abilities in order to improve cooperation. The model has been validated by applying it at a kindergarten school.

  8. Parallelization of a hydrological model using the message passing interface (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Li, Tiejian; Sun, Liqun; Chen, Ji


    With the increasing knowledge about the natural processes, hydrological models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) are becoming larger and more complex with increasing computation time. Additionally, other procedures such as model calibration, which may require thousands of model iterations, can increase running time and thus further reduce rapid modeling and analysis. Using the widely-applied SWAT as an example, this study demonstrates how to parallelize a serial hydrological model in a Windows® environment using a parallel programing technology—Message Passing Interface (MPI). With a case study, we derived the optimal values for the two parameters (the number of processes and the corresponding percentage of work to be distributed to the master process) of the parallel SWAT (P-SWAT) on an ordinary personal computer and a work station. Our study indicates that model execution time can be reduced by 42%–70% (or a speedup of 1.74–3.36) using multiple processes (two to five) with a proper task-distribution scheme (between the master and slave processes). Although the computation time cost becomes lower with an increasing number of processes (from two to five), this enhancement becomes less due to the accompanied increase in demand for message passing procedures between the master and all slave processes. Our case study demonstrates that the P-SWAT with a five-process run may reach the maximum speedup, and the performance can be quite stable (fairly independent of a project size). Overall, the P-SWAT can help reduce the computation time substantially for an individual model run, manual and automatic calibration procedures, and optimization of best management practices. In particular, the parallelization method we used and the scheme for deriving the optimal parameters in this study can be valuable and easily applied to other hydrological or environmental models.

  9. SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff – a Vietnam river basin study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Vu


    Full Text Available Many research studies that focus on basin hydrology have applied the SWAT model using station data to simulate runoff. But over regions lacking robust station data, there is a problem of applying the model to study the hydrological responses. For some countries and remote areas, the rainfall data availability might be a constraint due to many different reasons such as lacking of technology, war time and financial limitation that lead to difficulty in constructing the runoff data. To overcome such a limitation, this research study uses some of the available globally gridded high resolution precipitation datasets to simulate runoff. Five popular gridded observation precipitation datasets: (1 Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE, (2 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, (3 Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN, (4 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, (5 a modified version of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN2 and one reanalysis dataset, National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR are used to simulate runoff over the Dak Bla river (a small tributary of the Mekong River in Vietnam. Wherever possible, available station data are also used for comparison. Bilinear interpolation of these gridded datasets is used to input the precipitation data at the closest grid points to the station locations. Sensitivity Analysis and Auto-calibration are performed for the SWAT model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Coefficient of Determination (R2 indices are used to benchmark the model performance. Results indicate that the APHRODITE dataset performed very well on a daily scale simulation of discharge having a good NSE of 0.54 and R2 of 0.55, when compared to the discharge simulation using station data (0

  10. Applying Modeling Tools to Ground System Procedures (United States)

    Di Pasquale, Peter


    As part of a long-term effort to revitalize the Ground Systems (GS) Engineering Section practices, Systems Modeling Language (SysML) and Business Process Model and Notation (BPMN) have been used to model existing GS products and the procedures GS engineers use to produce them.

  11. Water quality modelling in the San Antonio River Basin driven by radar rainfall data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Almoutaz Elhassan


    Full Text Available Continuous monitoring of stream water quality is needed as it has significant impacts on human and ecological health and well-being. Estimating water quality between sampling dates requires model simulation based on the available geospatial and water quality data for a given watershed. Models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT can be used to estimate the missing water quality data. In this study, SWAT was used to estimate water quality at a monitoring station near the outlet of the San Antonio River. Precipitation data from both rain gauges and weather radar were used to force the SWAT simulations. Virtual rain gauges which were based on weather radar data were created in the approximate centres of the 163 sub-watersheds of the San Antonio River Basin for SWAT simulations. This method was first tested in a smaller watershed in the middle of the Guadalupe River Basin resulting in increased model efficiency in simulating surface run-off. The method was then applied to the San Antonio River watershed and yielded good simulations for surface run-off (R2 = 0.7, nitrate (R2 = 0.6 and phosphate (R2 = 0.5 at the watershed outlet (Goliad, TX – USGS (United States Geological Survey gauge as compared to observed data. The study showed that the proper use of weather radar precipitation in SWAT model simulations improves the estimation of missing water quality data.

  12. Applying mechanistic models in bioprocess development

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lencastre Fernandes, Rita; Bodla, Vijaya Krishna; Carlquist, Magnus


    incorporates process-relevant input (critical process variables)-output (product concentration and product quality attributes) relations. The model therefore has great value in planning experiments, or in determining which critical process variables need to be monitored and controlled tightly. Mechanistic......The available knowledge on the mechanisms of a bioprocess system is central to process analytical technology. In this respect, mechanistic modeling has gained renewed attention, since a mechanistic model can provide an excellent summary of available process knowledge. Such a model therefore...... models should be combined with proper model analysis tools, such as uncertainty and sensitivity analysis. When assuming distributed inputs, the resulting uncertainty in the model outputs can be decomposed using sensitivity analysis to determine which input parameters are responsible for the major part...

  13. Applying the Sport Education Model to Tennis (United States)

    Ayvazo, Shiri


    The physical education field abounds with theoretically sound curricular approaches such as fitness education, skill theme approach, tactical approach, and sport education. In an era that emphasizes authentic sport experiences, the Sport Education Model includes unique features that sets it apart from other curricular models and can be a valuable…

  14. Applied modelling and computing in social science

    CERN Document Server

    Povh, Janez


    In social science outstanding results are yielded by advanced simulation methods, based on state of the art software technologies and an appropriate combination of qualitative and quantitative methods. This book presents examples of successful applications of modelling and computing in social science: business and logistic process simulation and optimization, deeper knowledge extractions from big data, better understanding and predicting of social behaviour and modelling health and environment changes.

  15. Applying waste logistics modeling to regional planning

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holter, G.M.; Khawaja, A.; Shaver, S.R.; Peterson, K.L.


    Waste logistics modeling is a powerful analytical technique that can be used for effective planning of future solid waste storage, treatment, and disposal activities. Proper waste management is essential for preventing unacceptable environmental degradation from ongoing operations, and is also a critical part of any environmental remediation activity. Logistics modeling allows for analysis of alternate scenarios for future waste flowrates and routings, facility schedules, and processing or handling capacities. Such analyses provide an increased understanding of the critical needs for waste storage, treatment, transport, and disposal while there is still adequate lead time to plan accordingly. They also provide a basis for determining the sensitivity of these critical needs to the various system parameters. This paper discusses the application of waste logistics modeling concepts to regional planning. In addition to ongoing efforts to aid in planning for a large industrial complex, the Pacific Northwest Laboratory (PNL) is currently involved in implementing waste logistics modeling as part of the planning process for material recovery and recycling within a multi-city region in the western US.

  16. Applying the WEAP Model to Water Resource

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gao, Jingjing; Christensen, Per; Li, Wei

    in assessing the effects on water resources using a case study on a Coal Industry Development Plan in an arid region in North Western China. In the case the WEAP model (Water Evaluation And Planning System) were used to simulate various scenarios using a diversity of technological instruments like irrigation...... thus providing a good basis for an SEA that can support the choice among different alternative scenarios and contribute to adjusting and optimizing the original plan....

  17. Private healthcare quality: applying a SERVQUAL model. (United States)

    Butt, Mohsin Muhammad; de Run, Ernest Cyril


    This paper seeks to develop and test the SERVQUAL model scale for measuring Malaysian private health service quality. The study consists of 340 randomly selected participants visiting a private healthcare facility during a three-month data collection period. Data were analyzed using means, correlations, principal component and confirmatory factor analysis to establish the modified SERVQUAL scale's reliability, underlying dimensionality and convergent, discriminant validity. Results indicate a moderate negative quality gap for overall Malaysian private healthcare service quality. Results also indicate a moderate negative quality gap on each service quality scale dimension. However, scale development analysis yielded excellent results, which can be used in wider healthcare policy and practice. Respondents were skewed towards a younger population, causing concern that the results might not represent all Malaysian age groups. The study's major contribution is that it offers a way to assess private healthcare service quality. Second, it successfully develops a scale that can be used to measure health service quality in Malaysian contexts.

  18. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Applicability on Nutrients Loadings Prediction in Mountainous Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) Watershed, Utah. (United States)

    Salha, A. A.; Stevens, D. K.


    The application of watershed simulation models is indispensable when pollution is generated by a nonpoint source. These models should be able to simulate large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. This study presents the application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate, manage, and research the transport and fate of nutrients in (Subbasin HUC 16010204) Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) watershed, Box elder County, Utah. Water quality problems arise primarily from high phosphorus and total suspended sediment concentrations that were caused by increasing agricultural and farming activities and complex network of canals and ducts of varying sizes and carrying capacities that transport water (for farming and agriculture uses). Using the available input data (Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use/Land cover (LULC), soil map and weather and climate data for 20 years (1990-2010) to predict the water quantity and quality of the LBMR watershed using a spatially distributed model version of hydrological ArcSWAT model (ArcSWAT 2012.10_1.14). No previous studies have been found in the literature regarding an in-depth simulation study of the Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) watershed to simulate stream flow and to quantify the associated movement of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment. It is expected that the model mainly will predict monthly mean total phosphorus (TP) concentration and loadings in a mountainous LBRM watershed (steep Wellsville mountain range with peak of (2,857 m)) having into consideration the snow and runoff variables affecting the prediction process. The simulated nutrient concentrations were properly consistent with observations based on the R2 and Nash- Sutcliffe fitness factors. Further, the model will be able to manage and assess the land application in that area with corresponding to proper BMPs regarding water quality management. Keywords: Water Quality Modeling; Soil and

  19. A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karim C. Abbaspour


    Full Text Available Application of integrated hydrological models to manage a watershed’s water resources are increasingly finding their way into the decision-making processes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is a multi-process model integrating hydrology, ecology, agriculture, and water quality. SWAT is a continuation of nearly 40 years of modeling efforts conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS. A large number of SWAT-related papers have appeared in ISI journals, building a world-wide consensus around the model’s stability and usefulness. The current issue is a collection of the latest research using SWAT as the modeling tool. Most models must undergo calibration/validation and uncertainty analysis. Unfortunately, these sciences are not formal subjects of teaching in most universities and the students are often left to their own resources to calibrate their model. In this paper, we focus on calibration and uncertainty analysis highlighting some serious issues in the calibration of distributed models. A protocol for calibration is also highlighted to guide the users to obtain better modeling results. Finally, a summary of the papers published in this special issue is provided in the Appendix.

  20. SWATS: Diurnal Trends in the Soil Temperature Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, David [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Theisen, Adam [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)


    During the processing of data for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ARMBE2D Value-Added Product (VAP), the developers noticed that the SWATS soil temperatures did not show a decreased temporal variability with increased depth with the new E30+ Extended Facilities (EFs), unlike the older EFs at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The instrument mentor analyzed the data and reported that all SWATS locations have shown this behavior but that the magnitude of the problem was greatest at EFs E31-E38. The data were analyzed to verify the initial assessments of: 1. 5 cm SWATS data were valid for all EFs and 15 cm soil temperature measurements were valid at all EFs other than E31-E38, 2. Use only nighttime SWATS soil temperature measurements to calculate daily average soil temperatures, 3. Since it seems likely that the soil temperature measurements below 15cm were affected by the solar heating of the enclosure at all but E31-38, and at all depths below 5cm at E31-38, individual measurements of soil temperature at these depths during daylight hours, and daily averages of the same, can ot be trusted on most (particularly sunny) days.

  1. Residues of cypermethrin and endosulfan in soils of Swat valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Nafees


    Full Text Available Swat Valley was studied for two widely used pesticides; cypermethrin and endosulfan. A total of 63 soil samples were collected from 27 villages selected for this purpose. The collected soil samples were extracted with n-hexane, pesticides were separated, identified and quantified by a GC-ECD system. Endosulfan was 0.24 - 1.51 mg kg-1 and 0.13 - 12.67 mg kg-1 in rainfed and irrigated areas, respectively. The residual level of cypermethrin was comparatively high with a level of0.14 to 27.62 mg kg-1 and 0.05 to 73.75 mg kg-1 in rainfed and irrigated areas, respectively. For assessing the possible causes of pesticide residues in soil, 360 farmers were interviewed. It was found that both, cypermethrin and endosulfan, apart from agriculture were also widely misused for fishing in the entire stretch of River Swat and its tributaries. River Swat is used for irrigation in Swat Valley and this wide misuse of pesticides can also contribute to pesticide residue in soil.

  2. Malnutrition amongst Under-Five Years Children in Swat, Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... The incidence of malnutrition is about the same for both male and female children. Risk factors for malnutrition in the children include lack of education, teenage pregnancy, lack of immunization, and large family size. Keywords: Malnutrition, Gomezfs classification, Weaning time, Risk factors, Teenage pregnancy, Swat ...

  3. Learning to Apply Models of Materials While Explaining Their Properties (United States)

    Karpin, Tiia; Juuti, Kalle; Lavonen, Jari


    Background: Applying structural models is important to chemistry education at the upper secondary level, but it is considered one of the most difficult topics to learn. Purpose: This study analyses to what extent in designed lessons students learned to apply structural models in explaining the properties and behaviours of various materials.…

  4. Comparison of performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT 2009 and 2012 in an extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwest (United States)

    Guo, Tian; Gitau, Margaret; Merwade, Venkatesh; Arnold, Jeffrey; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Hirschi, Michael; Engel, Bernard


    Subsurface tile drainage systems are widely used in agricultural watersheds in the Midwestern US and enable the Midwest area to become highly productive agricultural lands, but can also create environmental problems, for example nitrate-N contamination associated with drainage waters. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to model watersheds with tile drainage. SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 provide new tile drainage routines. However, few studies have used these revisions to study tile drainage impacts at both field and watershed scales. Moreover, SWAT2012 revision 645 improved the soil moisture based curve number calculation method, which has not been fully tested. This study used long-term (1991-2003) field site and river station data from the Little Vermilion River (LVR) watershed to evaluate performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT2009 revision 528 (the old routine) and SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 (the new routine). Both the old and new routines provided reasonable but unsatisfactory (NSE sediment and annual corn and soybean yield results from SWAT with the old and new tile drainage routines were compared with observed values. Generally, the new routine provided acceptable simulated tile flow (NSE = 0.48-0.65) and nitrate in tile flow (NSE = 0.48-0.68) for field sites with random pattern tile and constant tile spacing, while the old routine simulated tile flow and nitrate in tile flow results for the field site with constant tile spacing were unacceptable (NSE = 0.00-0.32 and -0.29-0.06, respectively). The new modified curve number calculation method in revision 645 (NSE = 0.50-0.81) better simulated surface runoff than revision 615 (NSE = -0.11-0.49). The calibration provided reasonable parameter sets for the old and new routines in the LVR watershed, and the validation results showed that the new routine has the potential to accurately simulate hydrologic processes in mildly sloped watersheds.

  5. Sobol‧'s sensitivity analysis for a distributed hydrological model of Yichun River Basin, China (United States)

    Zhang, Chi; Chu, Jinggang; Fu, Guangtao


    SummaryThis paper aims to provide an enhanced understanding of the parameter sensitivities of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using a variance-based global sensitivity analysis, i.e., Sobol''s method. The Yichun River Basin, China, is used as a case study, and the sensitivity of the SWAT parameters is analyzed under typical dry, normal and wet years, respectively. To reduce the number of model parameters, some spatial model parameters are grouped in terms of data availability and multipliers are then applied to parameter groups, reflecting spatial variation in the distributed SWAT model. The SWAT model performance is represented using two statistical metrics - Root Mean Square Error (RMSE) and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and two hydrological metrics - RunOff Coefficient Error (ROCE) and Slope of the Flow Duration Curve Error (SFDCE). The analysis reveals the individual effects of each parameter and its interactions with other parameters. Parameter interactions contribute to a significant portion of the variation in all metrics considered under moderate and wet years. In particular, the variation in the two hydrological metrics is dominated by the interactions, illustrating the necessity of choosing a global sensitivity analysis method that is able to consider interactions in the SWAT model identification process. In the dry year, however, the individual effects control the variation in the other three metrics except SFDCE. Further, the two statistical metrics fail to identify the SWAT parameters that control the flashiness (i.e., variability of mid-flows) and overall water balance. Overall, the results obtained from the global sensitivity analysis provide an in-depth understanding of the underlying hydrological processes under different metrics and climatic conditions in the case study catchment.

  6. Assessing the efficacy of the SWAT auto-irrigation function to simulate Irrigation, evapotranspiration and crop response to irrigation management strategies of the Texas High Plains (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is widely used for simulation of hydrologic processes at various temporal and spatial scales. Less common are long-term simulation analyses of water balance components including agricultural management practices such as irrigation management. In the se...

  7. Nonlinear Eddy Viscosity Models applied to Wind Turbine Wakes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laan, van der, Paul Maarten; Sørensen, Niels N.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan


    The linear k−ε eddy viscosity model and modified versions of two existing nonlinear eddy viscosity models are applied to single wind turbine wake simulations using a Reynolds Averaged Navier-Stokes code. Results are compared with field wake measurements. The nonlinear models give better results...

  8. Apply Functional Modelling to Consequence Analysis in Supervision Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhang, Xinxin; Lind, Morten; Gola, Giulio


    This paper will first present the purpose and goals of applying functional modelling approach to consequence analysis by adopting Multilevel Flow Modelling (MFM). MFM Models describe a complex system in multiple abstraction levels in both means-end dimension and whole-part dimension. It contains...

  9. Teaching students to apply multiple physical modeling methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Wiegers, T.; Verlinden, J.C.; Vergeest, J.S.M.


    Design students should be able to explore a variety of shapes before elaborating one particular shape. Current modelling courses don’t address this issue. We developed the course Rapid Modelling, which teaches students to explore multiple shape models in a short time, applying different methods and

  10. Comparison of two multiaxial fatigue models applied to dental implants

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    JM. Ayllon


    Full Text Available This paper presents two multiaxial fatigue life prediction models applied to a commercial dental implant. One model is called Variable Initiation Length Model and takes into account both the crack initiation and propagation phases. The second model combines the Theory of Critical Distance with a critical plane damage model to characterise the initiation and initial propagation of micro/meso cracks in the material. This paper discusses which material properties are necessary for the implementation of these models and how to obtain them in the laboratory from simple test specimens. It also describes the FE models developed for the stress/strain and stress intensity factor characterisation in the implant. The results of applying both life prediction models are compared with experimental results arising from the application of ISO-14801 standard to a commercial dental implant.

  11. Application of SWAT99.2 to sensitivity analysis of water balance components in unique plots in a hilly region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-feng Dai


    Full Text Available Although many sensitivity analyses using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT in a complex watershed have been conducted, little attention has been paid to the application potential of the model in unique plots. In addition, sensitivity analysis of percolation and evapotranspiration with SWAT has seldom been undertaken. In this study, SWAT99.2 was calibrated to simulate water balance components for unique plots in Southern China from 2000 to 2001, which included surface runoff, percolation, and evapotranspiration. Twenty-one parameters classified into four categories, including meteorological conditions, topographical characteristics, soil properties, and vegetation attributes, were used for sensitivity analysis through one-at-a-time (OAT sampling to identify the factor that contributed most to the variance in water balance components. The results were shown to be different for different plots, with parameter sensitivity indices and ranks varying for different water balance components. Water balance components in the broad-leaved forest and natural grass plots were most sensitive to meteorological conditions, less sensitive to vegetation attributes and soil properties, and least sensitive to topographical characteristics. Compared to those in the natural grass plot, water balance components in the broad-leaved forest plot demonstrated higher sensitivity to the maximum stomatal conductance (GSI and maximum leaf area index (BLAI.

  12. OpenMP-accelerated SWAT simulation using Intel C and FORTRAN compilers: Development and benchmark (United States)

    Ki, Seo Jin; Sugimura, Tak; Kim, Albert S.


    We developed a practical method to accelerate execution of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using open (free) computational resources. The SWAT source code (rev 622) was recompiled using a non-commercial Intel FORTRAN compiler in Ubuntu 12.04 LTS Linux platform, and newly named iOMP-SWAT in this study. GNU utilities of make, gprof, and diff were used to develop the iOMP-SWAT package, profile memory usage, and check identicalness of parallel and serial simulations. Among 302 SWAT subroutines, the slowest routines were identified using GNU gprof, and later modified using Open Multiple Processing (OpenMP) library in an 8-core shared memory system. In addition, a C wrapping function was used to rapidly set large arrays to zero by cross compiling with the original SWAT FORTRAN package. A universal speedup ratio of 2.3 was achieved using input data sets of a large number of hydrological response units. As we specifically focus on acceleration of a single SWAT run, the use of iOMP-SWAT for parameter calibrations will significantly improve the performance of SWAT optimization.

  13. The HPT Model Applied to a Kayak Company's Registration Process (United States)

    Martin, Florence; Hall, Herman A., IV; Blakely, Amanda; Gayford, Matthew C.; Gunter, Erin


    This case study describes the step-by-step application of the traditional human performance technology (HPT) model at a premier kayak company located on the coast of North Carolina. The HPT model was applied to address lost revenues related to three specific business issues: misinformed customers, dissatisfied customers, and guides not showing up…


    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    VERSPOOR, KARIN [Los Alamos National Laboratory; LIN, SHOU-DE [Los Alamos National Laboratory


    An N-gram language model aims at capturing statistical syntactic word order information from corpora. Although the concept of language models has been applied extensively to handle a variety of NLP problems with reasonable success, the standard model does not incorporate semantic information, and consequently limits its applicability to semantic problems such as word sense disambiguation. We propose a framework that integrates semantic information into the language model schema, allowing a system to exploit both syntactic and semantic information to address NLP problems. Furthermore, acknowledging the limited availability of semantically annotated data, we discuss how the proposed model can be learned without annotated training examples. Finally, we report on a case study showing how the semantics-enhanced language model can be applied to unsupervised word sense disambiguation with promising results.

  15. Modeling in applied sciences a kinetic theory approach

    CERN Document Server

    Pulvirenti, Mario


    Modeling complex biological, chemical, and physical systems, in the context of spatially heterogeneous mediums, is a challenging task for scientists and engineers using traditional methods of analysis Modeling in Applied Sciences is a comprehensive survey of modeling large systems using kinetic equations, and in particular the Boltzmann equation and its generalizations An interdisciplinary group of leading authorities carefully develop the foundations of kinetic models and discuss the connections and interactions between model theories, qualitative and computational analysis and real-world applications This book provides a thoroughly accessible and lucid overview of the different aspects, models, computations, and methodology for the kinetic-theory modeling process Topics and Features * Integrated modeling perspective utilized in all chapters * Fluid dynamics of reacting gases * Self-contained introduction to kinetic models * Becker–Doring equations * Nonlinear kinetic models with chemical reactions * Kinet...

  16. Learning to apply models of materials while explaining their properties (United States)

    Karpin, Tiia; Juuti, Kalle; Lavonen, Jari


    Background:Applying structural models is important to chemistry education at the upper secondary level, but it is considered one of the most difficult topics to learn. Purpose:This study analyses to what extent in designed lessons students learned to apply structural models in explaining the properties and behaviours of various materials. Sample:An experimental group is 27 Finnish upper secondary school students and control group included 18 students from the same school. Design and methods:In quasi-experimental setting, students were guided through predict, observe, explain activities in four practical work situations. It was intended that the structural models would encourage students to learn how to identify and apply appropriate models when predicting and explaining situations. The lessons, organised over a one-week period, began with a teacher's demonstration and continued with student experiments in which they described the properties and behaviours of six household products representing three different materials. Results:Most students in the experimental group learned to apply the models correctly, as demonstrated by post-test scores that were significantly higher than pre-test scores. The control group showed no significant difference between pre- and post-test scores. Conclusions:The findings indicate that the intervention where students engage in predict, observe, explain activities while several materials and models are confronted at the same time, had a positive effect on learning outcomes.

  17. Applying a realistic evaluation model to occupational safety interventions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Louise Møller


    Background: Recent literature characterizes occupational safety interventions as complex social activities, applied in complex and dynamic social systems. Hence, the actual outcomes of an intervention will vary, depending on the intervention, the implementation process, context, personal...... and qualitative methods. This revised model has, however, not been applied in a real life context. Method: The model is applied in a controlled, four-component, integrated behaviour-based and safety culture-based safety intervention study (2008-2010) in a medium-sized wood manufacturing company. The interventions...... involve the company’s safety committee, safety manager, safety groups and 130 workers. Results: The model provides a framework for more valid evidence of what works within injury prevention. Affective commitment and role behaviour among key actors are identified as crucial for the implementation...

  18. Forecast model applied to quality control with autocorrelational data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriano Mendonça Souza


    Full Text Available This research approaches the prediction models applied to industrial processes, in order to check the stability of the process by means of control charts, applied to residues from linear modeling. The data used for analysis refers to the moisture content, permeability and compression resistance to the green (RCV, belonging to the casting process of green sand molding in A Company, which operates in the casting and machining, for which dynamic multivariate regression model was set. As the observations were auto-correlated, it was necessary to seek a mathematical model that produces independent and identically distribuibed residues. The models found make possible to understand the variables behavior, assisting in the achievement of the forecasts and in the monitoring of the referred process. Thus, it can be stated that the moisture content is very unstable comparing to the others variables.

  19. Methods for model selection in applied science and engineering.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Field, Richard V., Jr.


    Mathematical models are developed and used to study the properties of complex systems and/or modify these systems to satisfy some performance requirements in just about every area of applied science and engineering. A particular reason for developing a model, e.g., performance assessment or design, is referred to as the model use. Our objective is the development of a methodology for selecting a model that is sufficiently accurate for an intended use. Information on the system being modeled is, in general, incomplete, so that there may be two or more models consistent with the available information. The collection of these models is called the class of candidate models. Methods are developed for selecting the optimal member from a class of candidate models for the system. The optimal model depends on the available information, the selected class of candidate models, and the model use. Classical methods for model selection, including the method of maximum likelihood and Bayesian methods, as well as a method employing a decision-theoretic approach, are formulated to select the optimal model for numerous applications. There is no requirement that the candidate models be random. Classical methods for model selection ignore model use and require data to be available. Examples are used to show that these methods can be unreliable when data is limited. The decision-theoretic approach to model selection does not have these limitations, and model use is included through an appropriate utility function. This is especially important when modeling high risk systems, where the consequences of using an inappropriate model for the system can be disastrous. The decision-theoretic method for model selection is developed and applied for a series of complex and diverse applications. These include the selection of the: (1) optimal order of the polynomial chaos approximation for non-Gaussian random variables and stationary stochastic processes, (2) optimal pressure load model to be

  20. Lessons Learned from Applying Safety Culture Maturity Model in Thailand


    Bordin Vongvitayapirom; Punnamee Sachakamol; Hanna Kropsu-Vehkapera; Pekka Kess


    Purpose – The purpose of this paper it to provide practitioner and researcher lessons learned from applying a safety culture maturity model in the oil and gas industry in Thailand. It proposes a roadmap to improve safety culture maturity in an organization. Design/methodology/approach – A safety culture maturity of 5 levels was chosen (Hudson’s model) to be applied in oil and gas company, and a questionnaire survey was conducted with 2,251 employees or 74% of the target group across the compa...

  1. Hydrological Modeling of Highly Glacierized Basins (Andes, Alps, and Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Omani


    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was used to simulate five glacierized river basins that are global in coverage and vary in climate. The river basins included the Narayani (Nepal, Vakhsh (Central Asia, Rhone (Switzerland, Mendoza (Central Andes, Argentina, and Central Dry Andes (Chile, with a total area of 85,000 km2. A modified SWAT snow algorithm was applied in order to consider spatial variation of associated snowmelt/accumulation by elevation band across each subbasin. In previous studies, melt rates varied as a function of elevation because of an air temperature gradient while the snow parameters were constant throughout the entire basin. A major improvement of the new snow algorithm is the separation of the glaciers from seasonal snow based on their characteristics. Two SWAT snow algorithms were evaluated in simulation of monthly runoff from the glaciered watersheds: (1 the snow parameters are lumped (constant throughout the entire basin and (2 the snow parameters are spatially variable based on elevation bands of a subbasin (modified snow algorithm. Applying the distributed SWAT snow algorithm improved the model performance in simulation of monthly runoff with snow-glacial regime, so that mean RSR decreased to 0.49 from 0.55 and NSE increased to 0.75 from 0.69. Improvement of model performance was negligible in simulations of monthly runoff from the basins with a monsoon runoff regime.

  2. A generalized mixture model applied to diabetes incidence data. (United States)

    Zuanetti, Daiane Aparecida; Milan, Luis Aparecido


    We present a generalization of the usual (independent) mixture model to accommodate a Markovian first-order mixing distribution. We propose the data-driven reversible jump, a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) procedure, for estimating the a posteriori probability for each model in a model selection procedure and estimating the corresponding parameters. Simulated datasets show excellent performance of the proposed method in the convergence, model selection, and precision of parameters estimates. Finally, we apply the proposed method to analyze USA diabetes incidence datasets. © 2017 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  3. Applied data analysis and modeling for energy engineers and scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Reddy, T Agami


    ""Applied Data Analysis and Modeling for Energy Engineers and Scientists"" discusses mathematical models, data analysis, and decision analysis in modeling. The approach taken in this volume focuses on the modeling and analysis of thermal systems in an engineering environment, while also covering a number of other critical areas. Other material covered includes the tools that researchers and engineering professionals will need in order to explore different analysis methods, use critical assessment skills and reach sound engineering conclusions. The book also covers process and system design and

  4. Modeling Organizational Design - Applying A Formalism Model From Theoretical Physics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Robert Fabac


    Full Text Available Modern organizations are exposed to diverse external environment influences. Currently accepted concepts of organizational design take into account structure, its interaction with strategy, processes, people, etc. Organization design and planning aims to align this key organizational design variables. At the higher conceptual level, however, completely satisfactory formulation for this alignment doesn’t exist. We develop an approach originating from the application of concepts of theoretical physics to social systems. Under this approach, the allocation of organizational resources is analyzed in terms of social entropy, social free energy and social temperature. This allows us to formalize the dynamic relationship between organizational design variables. In this paper we relate this model to Galbraith's Star Model and we also suggest improvements in the procedure of the complex analytical method in organizational design.

  5. Remarks on orthotropic elastic models applied to wood

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nilson Tadeu Mascia


    Full Text Available Wood is generally considered an anisotropic material. In terms of engineering elastic models, wood is usually treated as an orthotropic material. This paper presents an analysis of two principal anisotropic elastic models that are usually applied to wood. The first one, the linear orthotropic model, where the material axes L (Longitudinal, R( radial and T(tangential are coincident with the Cartesian axes (x, y, z, is more accepted as wood elastic model. The other one, the cylindrical orthotropic model is more adequate of the growth caracteristics of wood but more mathematically complex to be adopted in practical terms. Specifically due to its importance in wood elastic parameters, this paper deals with the fiber orientation influence in these models through adequate transformation of coordinates. As a final result, some examples of the linear model, which show the variation of elastic moduli, i.e., Young´s modulus and shear modulus, with fiber orientation are presented.

  6. Applying the knowledge creation model to the management of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)


    The contribution of evaluation to socialization and externalization of tacit knowledge: The case of the World Bank. Evaluation, 10(3), 263-283. Mclean, E. R. 2004. Measuring e-commerce success: Applying the DeLone & McLean information systems success model. International Journal of Electronic Commerce, 9(1), 31-47.

  7. The limitations of applying rational decision-making models to ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The aim of this paper is to show the limitations of rational decision-making models as applied to child spacing and more specifically to the use of modern methods of contraception. In the light of factors known to influence low uptake of child spacing services in other African countries, suggestions are made to explain the ...

  8. An applied general equilibrium model for Dutch agribusiness policy analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Peerlings, J.


    The purpose of this thesis was to develop a basic static applied general equilibrium (AGE) model to analyse the effects of agricultural policy changes on Dutch agribusiness. In particular the effects on inter-industry transactions, factor demand, income, and trade are of

  9. Applying the Flipped Classroom Model to English Language Arts Education (United States)

    Young, Carl A., Ed.; Moran, Clarice M., Ed.


    The flipped classroom method, particularly when used with digital video, has recently attracted many supporters within the education field. Now more than ever, language arts educators can benefit tremendously from incorporating flipped classroom techniques into their curriculum. "Applying the Flipped Classroom Model to English Language Arts…

  10. Knowledge Growth: Applied Models of General and Individual Knowledge Evolution (United States)

    Silkina, Galina Iu.; Bakanova, Svetlana A.


    The article considers the mathematical models of the growth and accumulation of scientific and applied knowledge since it is seen as the main potential and key competence of modern companies. The problem is examined on two levels--the growth and evolution of objective knowledge and knowledge evolution of a particular individual. Both processes are…

  11. Applying Model Based Systems Engineering to NASA's Space Communications Networks (United States)

    Bhasin, Kul; Barnes, Patrick; Reinert, Jessica; Golden, Bert


    System engineering practices for complex systems and networks now require that requirement, architecture, and concept of operations product development teams, simultaneously harmonize their activities to provide timely, useful and cost-effective products. When dealing with complex systems of systems, traditional systems engineering methodology quickly falls short of achieving project objectives. This approach is encumbered by the use of a number of disparate hardware and software tools, spreadsheets and documents to grasp the concept of the network design and operation. In case of NASA's space communication networks, since the networks are geographically distributed, and so are its subject matter experts, the team is challenged to create a common language and tools to produce its products. Using Model Based Systems Engineering methods and tools allows for a unified representation of the system in a model that enables a highly related level of detail. To date, Program System Engineering (PSE) team has been able to model each network from their top-level operational activities and system functions down to the atomic level through relational modeling decomposition. These models allow for a better understanding of the relationships between NASA's stakeholders, internal organizations, and impacts to all related entities due to integration and sustainment of existing systems. Understanding the existing systems is essential to accurate and detailed study of integration options being considered. In this paper, we identify the challenges the PSE team faced in its quest to unify complex legacy space communications networks and their operational processes. We describe the initial approaches undertaken and the evolution toward model based system engineering applied to produce Space Communication and Navigation (SCaN) PSE products. We will demonstrate the practice of Model Based System Engineering applied to integrating space communication networks and the summary of its

  12. Agrochemical fate models applied in agricultural areas from Colombia (United States)

    Garcia-Santos, Glenda; Yang, Jing; Andreoli, Romano; Binder, Claudia


    The misuse application of pesticides in mainly agricultural catchments can lead to severe problems for humans and environment. Especially in developing countries where there is often found overuse of agrochemicals and incipient or lack of water quality monitoring at local and regional levels, models are needed for decision making and hot spots identification. However, the complexity of the water cycle contrasts strongly with the scarce data availability, limiting the number of analysis, techniques, and models available to researchers. Therefore there is a strong need for model simplification able to appropriate model complexity and still represent the processes. We have developed a new model so-called Westpa-Pest to improve water quality management of an agricultural catchment located in the highlands of Colombia. Westpa-Pest is based on the fully distributed hydrologic model Wetspa and a fate pesticide module. We have applied a multi-criteria analysis for model selection under the conditions and data availability found in the region and compared with the new developed Westpa-Pest model. Furthermore, both models were empirically calibrated and validated. The following questions were addressed i) what are the strengths and weaknesses of the models?, ii) which are the most sensitive parameters of each model?, iii) what happens with uncertainties in soil parameters?, and iv) how sensitive are the transfer coefficients?

  13. A general diagnostic model applied to language testing data. (United States)

    von Davier, Matthias


    Probabilistic models with one or more latent variables are designed to report on a corresponding number of skills or cognitive attributes. Multidimensional skill profiles offer additional information beyond what a single test score can provide, if the reported skills can be identified and distinguished reliably. Many recent approaches to skill profile models are limited to dichotomous data and have made use of computationally intensive estimation methods such as Markov chain Monte Carlo, since standard maximum likelihood (ML) estimation techniques were deemed infeasible. This paper presents a general diagnostic model (GDM) that can be estimated with standard ML techniques and applies to polytomous response variables as well as to skills with two or more proficiency levels. The paper uses one member of a larger class of diagnostic models, a compensatory diagnostic model for dichotomous and partial credit data. Many well-known models, such as univariate and multivariate versions of the Rasch model and the two-parameter logistic item response theory model, the generalized partial credit model, as well as a variety of skill profile models, are special cases of this GDM. In addition to an introduction to this model, the paper presents a parameter recovery study using simulated data and an application to real data from the field test for TOEFL Internet-based testing.

  14. Applied systems ecology: models, data, and statistical methods

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Eberhardt, L L


    In this report, systems ecology is largely equated to mathematical or computer simulation modelling. The need for models in ecology stems from the necessity to have an integrative device for the diversity of ecological data, much of which is observational, rather than experimental, as well as from the present lack of a theoretical structure for ecology. Different objectives in applied studies require specialized methods. The best predictive devices may be regression equations, often non-linear in form, extracted from much more detailed models. A variety of statistical aspects of modelling, including sampling, are discussed. Several aspects of population dynamics and food-chain kinetics are described, and it is suggested that the two presently separated approaches should be combined into a single theoretical framework. It is concluded that future efforts in systems ecology should emphasize actual data and statistical methods, as well as modelling.

  15. Developing Methodologies for Applying TRMM-Estimated Precipitation Data to Hydrological Modeling of a South TX Watershed - Initial Results (United States)

    Tobin, K. J.; Bennett, M. E.


    Previous experience with hydrological modeling in South Texas, which is located along the Texas-Mexico border, suggests that NWS ground measurements are too widely scattered to provide reliable precipitation input for modeling. In addition, a significant fraction of the study region is located at the edge of the coverage envelopes of the NWS NEXRAD weather radars present in the region limiting the accuracy of these systems to provide reliable precipitation estimates. Therefore, we are exploring whether TRMM estimated-precipitation data (3B42), in some form, can be used to support hydrological modeling in the Middle Rio Grande and Nueces River Basin watersheds. We have begun our modeling efforts by focusing on the middle Nueces watershed (7770 sq km). To model this largely rural watershed we selected the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Three precipitation datasets were selected for our initial model runs that include: (1) nearest NWS cooperative hourly rain gauge data, (2) three hourly TRMM 3B42 estimated precipitation, and (3) combination TRMM 3B42/NWS rain gauge datasets in which ground measurements are used for three hourly periods lacking high quality satellite microwave precipitation estimates as determined from TRMM 3G68 data. Three dataset were aggregated into an average daily estimate of precipitation for each TRMM grid cell. Manual calibration of was completed achieving model results that yield realistic monthly and annual water balances with both gauge and satellite estimate precipitation datasets. In the future, we plan to use the newly developed automatic calibration routine for SWAT, which is based on the Shuffled Complex Evolution algorithm, to optimize modeled discharge results from this study.

  16. Fractional Calculus Model of Electrical Impedance Applied to Human Skin (United States)

    Vosika, Zoran B.; Lazovic, Goran M.; Misevic, Gradimir N.; Simic-Krstic, Jovana B.


    Fractional calculus is a mathematical approach dealing with derivatives and integrals of arbitrary and complex orders. Therefore, it adds a new dimension to understand and describe basic nature and behavior of complex systems in an improved way. Here we use the fractional calculus for modeling electrical properties of biological systems. We derived a new class of generalized models for electrical impedance and applied them to human skin by experimental data fitting. The primary model introduces new generalizations of: 1) Weyl fractional derivative operator, 2) Cole equation, and 3) Constant Phase Element (CPE). These generalizations were described by the novel equation which presented parameter related to remnant memory and corrected four essential parameters We further generalized single generalized element by introducing specific partial sum of Maclaurin series determined by parameters We defined individual primary model elements and their serial combination models by the appropriate equations and electrical schemes. Cole equation is a special case of our generalized class of models for Previous bioimpedance data analyses of living systems using basic Cole and serial Cole models show significant imprecisions. Our new class of models considerably improves the quality of fitting, evaluated by mean square errors, for bioimpedance data obtained from human skin. Our models with new parameters presented in specific partial sum of Maclaurin series also extend representation, understanding and description of complex systems electrical properties in terms of remnant memory effects. PMID:23577065

  17. Online traffic flow model applying dynamic flow-density relation

    CERN Document Server

    Kim, Y


    This dissertation describes a new approach of the online traffic flow modelling based on the hydrodynamic traffic flow model and an online process to adapt the flow-density relation dynamically. The new modelling approach was tested based on the real traffic situations in various homogeneous motorway sections and a motorway section with ramps and gave encouraging simulation results. This work is composed of two parts: first the analysis of traffic flow characteristics and second the development of a new online traffic flow model applying these characteristics. For homogeneous motorway sections traffic flow is classified into six different traffic states with different characteristics. Delimitation criteria were developed to separate these states. The hysteresis phenomena were analysed during the transitions between these traffic states. The traffic states and the transitions are represented on a states diagram with the flow axis and the density axis. For motorway sections with ramps the complicated traffic fl...

  18. A comparison of single- and multi-site calibration and validation: a case study of SWAT in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China (United States)

    Bai, Jianwen; Shen, Zhenyao; Yan, Tiezhu


    An essential task in evaluating global water resource and pollution problems is to obtain the optimum set of parameters in hydrological models through calibration and validation. For a large-scale watershed, single-site calibration and validation may ignore spatial heterogeneity and may not meet the needs of the entire watershed. The goal of this study is to apply a multi-site calibration and validation of the Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT), using the observed flow data at three monitoring sites within the Baihe watershed of the Miyun Reservoir watershed, China. Our results indicate that the multi-site calibration parameter values are more reasonable than those obtained from single-site calibrations. These results are mainly due to significant differences in the topographic factors over the large-scale area, human activities and climate variability. The multi-site method involves the division of the large watershed into smaller watersheds, and applying the calibrated parameters of the multi-site calibration to the entire watershed. It was anticipated that this case study could provide experience of multi-site calibration in a large-scale basin, and provide a good foundation for the simulation of other pollutants in followup work in the Miyun Reservoir watershed and other similar large areas.

  19. Applying a Dynamic Resource Supply Model in a Smart Grid

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kaiyu Wan


    Full Text Available Dynamic resource supply is a complex issue to resolve in a cyber-physical system (CPS. In our previous work, a resource model called the dynamic resource supply model (DRSM has been proposed to handle resources specification, management and allocation in CPS. In this paper, we are integrating the DRSM with service-oriented architecture and applying it to a smart grid (SG, one of the most complex CPS examples. We give the detailed design of the SG for electricity charging request and electricity allocation between plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEV and DRSM through the Android system. In the design, we explain a mechanism for electricity consumption with data collection and re-allocation through ZigBee network. In this design, we verify the correctness of this resource model for expected electricity allocation.

  20. Dynamic Decision Making for Graphical Models Applied to Oil Exploration

    CERN Document Server

    Martinelli, Gabriele; Hauge, Ragnar


    We present a framework for sequential decision making in problems described by graphical models. The setting is given by dependent discrete random variables with associated costs or revenues. In our examples, the dependent variables are the potential outcomes (oil, gas or dry) when drilling a petroleum well. The goal is to develop an optimal selection strategy that incorporates a chosen utility function within an approximated dynamic programming scheme. We propose and compare different approximations, from simple heuristics to more complex iterative schemes, and we discuss their computational properties. We apply our strategies to oil exploration over multiple prospects modeled by a directed acyclic graph, and to a reservoir drilling decision problem modeled by a Markov random field. The results show that the suggested strategies clearly improve the simpler intuitive constructions, and this is useful when selecting exploration policies.

  1. Climate Change and Market Collapse: A Model Applied to Darfur

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ola Olsson


    Full Text Available A recurring argument in the global debate is that climate deterioration is likely to make social conflicts over diminishing natural resources more common in the future. The exact mechanism behind such a development has so far not been successfully characterized in the literature. In this paper, we present a general model of a community populated by farmers and herders who can either divide up land in a market economy or in autarky. The key insight from our model is that decreasing resources can make trade between the two groups collapse, which in turn makes each group’s welfare independent of that of the other. Predictions from the model are then applied to the conflict in Darfur. Our analysis suggests that three decades of drought in the area can at least partially explain the observed disintegration of markets and the subsequent rise of social tensions.

  2. Remote sensing applied to numerical modelling. [water resources pollution (United States)

    Sengupta, S.; Lee, S. S.; Veziroglu, T. N.; Bland, R.


    Progress and remaining difficulties in the construction of predictive mathematical models of large bodies of water as ecosystems are reviewed. Surface temperature is at present the only variable than can be measured accurately and reliably by remote sensing techniques, but satellite infrared data are of sufficient resolution for macro-scale modeling of oceans and large lakes, and airborne radiometers are useful in meso-scale analysis (of lakes, bays, and thermal plumes). Finite-element and finite-difference techniques applied to the solution of relevant coupled time-dependent nonlinear partial differential equations are compared, and the specific problem of the Biscayne Bay and environs ecosystem is tackled in a finite-differences treatment using the rigid-lid model and a rigid-line grid system.

  3. Applying Mechanistic Dam Breach Models to Historic Levee Breaches

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Risher Paul


    Full Text Available Hurricane Katrina elevated levee risk in the US national consciousness, motivating agencies to assess and improve their levee risk assessment methodology. Accurate computation of the flood flow magnitude and timing associated with a levee breach remains one of the most difficult and uncertain components of levee risk analysis. Contemporary methods are largely empirical and approximate, introducing substantial uncertainty to the damage and life loss models. Levee breach progressions are often extrapolated to the final width and breach formation time based on limited experience with past breaches or using regression equations developed from a limited data base of dam failures. Physically based embankment erosion models could improve levee breach modeling. However, while several mechanistic embankment breach models are available, they were developed for dams. Several aspects of the levee breach problem are distinct, departing from dam breach assumptions. This study applies three embankments models developed for dam breach analysis (DL Breach, HR BREACH, and WinDAM C to historic levee breaches with observed (or inferred breach rates, assessing the limitations, and applicability of each model to the levee breach problem.

  4. A Log Logistic Survival Model Applied to Hypobaric Decompression Sickness (United States)

    Conkin, Johnny


    Decompression sickness (DCS) is a complex, multivariable problem. A mathematical description or model of the likelihood of DCS requires a large amount of quality research data, ideas on how to define a decompression dose using physical and physiological variables, and an appropriate analytical approach. It also requires a high-performance computer with specialized software. I have used published DCS data to develop my decompression doses, which are variants of equilibrium expressions for evolved gas plus other explanatory variables. My analytical approach is survival analysis, where the time of DCS occurrence is modeled. My conclusions can be applied to simple hypobaric decompressions - ascents lasting from 5 to 30 minutes - and, after minutes to hours, to denitrogenation (prebreathing). They are also applicable to long or short exposures, and can be used whether the sufferer of DCS is at rest or exercising at altitude. Ultimately I would like my models to be applied to astronauts to reduce the risk of DCS during spacewalks, as well as to future spaceflight crews on the Moon and Mars.

  5. Inverse geothermal modelling applied to Danish sedimentary basins (United States)

    Poulsen, Søren E.; Balling, Niels; Bording, Thue S.; Mathiesen, Anders; Nielsen, Søren B.


    This paper presents a numerical procedure for predicting subsurface temperatures and heat-flow distribution in 3-D using inverse calibration methodology. The procedure is based on a modified version of the groundwater code MODFLOW by taking advantage of the mathematical similarity between confined groundwater flow (Darcy's law) and heat conduction (Fourier's law). Thermal conductivity, heat production and exponential porosity-depth relations are specified separately for the individual geological units of the model domain. The steady-state temperature model includes a model-based transient correction for the long-term palaeoclimatic thermal disturbance of the subsurface temperature regime. Variable model parameters are estimated by inversion of measured borehole temperatures with uncertainties reflecting their quality. The procedure facilitates uncertainty estimation for temperature predictions. The modelling procedure is applied to Danish onshore areas containing deep sedimentary basins. A 3-D voxel-based model, with 14 lithological units from surface to 5000 m depth, was built from digital geological maps derived from combined analyses of reflection seismic lines and borehole information. Matrix thermal conductivity of model lithologies was estimated by inversion of all available deep borehole temperature data and applied together with prescribed background heat flow to derive the 3-D subsurface temperature distribution. Modelled temperatures are found to agree very well with observations. The numerical model was utilized for predicting and contouring temperatures at 2000 and 3000 m depths and for two main geothermal reservoir units, the Gassum (Lower Jurassic-Upper Triassic) and Bunter/Skagerrak (Triassic) reservoirs, both currently utilized for geothermal energy production. Temperature gradients to depths of 2000-3000 m are generally around 25-30 °C km-1, locally up to about 35 °C km-1. Large regions have geothermal reservoirs with characteristic temperatures

  6. Comparison of performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT 2009 and 2012 in an extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Guo


    Full Text Available Subsurface tile drainage systems are widely used in agricultural watersheds in the Midwestern US and enable the Midwest area to become highly productive agricultural lands, but can also create environmental problems, for example nitrate-N contamination associated with drainage waters. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT has been used to model watersheds with tile drainage. SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 provide new tile drainage routines. However, few studies have used these revisions to study tile drainage impacts at both field and watershed scales. Moreover, SWAT2012 revision 645 improved the soil moisture based curve number calculation method, which has not been fully tested. This study used long-term (1991–2003 field site and river station data from the Little Vermilion River (LVR watershed to evaluate performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT2009 revision 528 (the old routine and SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 (the new routine. Both the old and new routines provided reasonable but unsatisfactory (NSE  <  0.5 uncalibrated flow and nitrate loss results for a mildly sloped watershed with low runoff. The calibrated monthly tile flow, surface flow, nitrate-N in tile and surface flow, sediment and annual corn and soybean yield results from SWAT with the old and new tile drainage routines were compared with observed values. Generally, the new routine provided acceptable simulated tile flow (NSE  =  0.48–0.65 and nitrate in tile flow (NSE  =  0.48–0.68 for field sites with random pattern tile and constant tile spacing, while the old routine simulated tile flow and nitrate in tile flow results for the field site with constant tile spacing were unacceptable (NSE  =  0.00–0.32 and −0.29–0.06, respectively. The new modified curve number calculation method in revision 645 (NSE  =  0.50–0.81 better simulated surface runoff than revision 615 (NSE  =  −0.11–0.49. The calibration

  7. Applied economic model development algorithm for electronics company

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mikhailov I.


    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to report about received experience in the field of creating the actual methods and algorithms that help to simplify development of applied decision support systems. It reports about an algorithm, which is a result of two years research and have more than one-year practical verification. In a case of testing electronic components, the time of the contract conclusion is crucial point to make the greatest managerial mistake. At this stage, it is difficult to achieve a realistic assessment of time-limit and of wage-fund for future work. The creation of estimating model is possible way to solve this problem. In the article is represented an algorithm for creation of those models. The algorithm is based on example of the analytical model development that serves for amount of work estimation. The paper lists the algorithm’s stages and explains their meanings with participants’ goals. The implementation of the algorithm have made possible twofold acceleration of these models development and fulfilment of management’s requirements. The resulting models have made a significant economic effect. A new set of tasks was identified to be further theoretical study.

  8. Nature preservation acceptance model applied to tanker oil spill simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Friis-Hansen, Peter; Ditlevsen, Ove Dalager


    is exemplified by a study of oil spills due to simulated tanker collisions in the Danish straits. It is found that the distribution of the oil spill volume per spill is well represented by an exponential distribution both in Oeresund and in Great Belt. When applied in the Poisson model, a risk profile reasonably...... close to the standard lognormal profile is obtained. Moreover, based on data pairs (volume, cost) for world wide oil spills it is inferred that the conditional distribution of the costs given the spill volume is well modeled by a lognormal distribution. By unconditioning by the exponential distribution...... of the single oil spill, a risk profile for the costs is obtained that is indistinguishable from the standard lognormal risk profile.Finally the question of formulating a public risk acceptance criterion is addressed following Ditlevsen, and it is argued that a Nature Preservation Willingness Index can...

  9. Enhanced pid vs model predictive control applied to bldc motor (United States)

    Gaya, M. S.; Muhammad, Auwal; Aliyu Abdulkadir, Rabiu; Salim, S. N. S.; Madugu, I. S.; Tijjani, Aminu; Aminu Yusuf, Lukman; Dauda Umar, Ibrahim; Khairi, M. T. M.


    BrushLess Direct Current (BLDC) motor is a multivariable and highly complex nonlinear system. Variation of internal parameter values with environment or reference signal increases the difficulty in controlling the BLDC effectively. Advanced control strategies (like model predictive control) often have to be integrated to satisfy the control desires. Enhancing or proper tuning of a conventional algorithm results in achieving the desired performance. This paper presents a performance comparison of Enhanced PID and Model Predictive Control (MPC) applied to brushless direct current motor. The simulation results demonstrated that the PSO-PID is slightly better than the PID and MPC in tracking the trajectory of the reference signal. The proposed scheme could be useful algorithms for the system.

  10. Applying the Canonical Text Services Model to the Coptic SCRIPTORIUM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bridget Almas


    Full Text Available Coptic SCRIPTORIUM is a platform for interdisciplinary and computational research in Coptic texts and linguistics. The purpose of this project was to research and implement a system of stable identification for the texts and linguistic data objects in Coptic SCRIPTORIUM to facilitate their citation and reuse. We began the project with a preferred solution, the Canonical Text Services URN model, which we validated for suitability for the corpus and compared it to other approaches, including HTTP URLs and Handles. The process of applying the CTS model to Coptic SCRIPTORIUM required an in-depth analysis that took into account the domain-specific scholarly research and citation practices, the structure of the textual data, and the data management workflow.

  11. Risk matrix model applied to the outsourcing of logistics' activities

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fouad Jawab


    Full Text Available Purpose: This paper proposes the application of the risk matrix model in the field of logistics outsourcing. Such an application can serve as the basis for decision making regarding the conduct of a risk management in the logistics outsourcing process and allow its prevention. Design/methodology/approach: This study is based on the risk management of logistics outsourcing in the field of the retail sector in Morocco. The authors identify all possible risks and then classify and prioritize them using the Risk Matrix Model. Finally, we have come to four possible decisions for the identified risks. The analysis was made possible through interviews and discussions with the heads of departments and agents who are directly involved in each outsourced activity. Findings and Originality/value: It is possible to improve the risk matrix model by proposing more personalized prevention measures according to each company that operates in the mass-market retailing. Originality/value: This study is the only one made in the process of logistics outsourcing in the retail sector in Morocco through Label’vie as a case study. First, we had identified as thorough as we could all possible risks, then we applied the Risk Matrix Model to sort them out in an ascending order of importance and criticality. As a result, we could hand out to the decision-makers the mapping for an effective control of risks and a better guiding of the process of risk management.

  12. Model output statistics applied to wind power prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Joensen, A.; Giebel, G.; Landberg, L. [Risoe National Lab., Roskilde (Denmark); Madsen, H.; Nielsen, H.A. [The Technical Univ. of Denmark, Dept. of Mathematical Modelling, Lyngby (Denmark)


    Being able to predict the output of a wind farm online for a day or two in advance has significant advantages for utilities, such as better possibility to schedule fossil fuelled power plants and a better position on electricity spot markets. In this paper prediction methods based on Numerical Weather Prediction (NWP) models are considered. The spatial resolution used in NWP models implies that these predictions are not valid locally at a specific wind farm. Furthermore, due to the non-stationary nature and complexity of the processes in the atmosphere, and occasional changes of NWP models, the deviation between the predicted and the measured wind will be time dependent. If observational data is available, and if the deviation between the predictions and the observations exhibits systematic behavior, this should be corrected for; if statistical methods are used, this approaches is usually referred to as MOS (Model Output Statistics). The influence of atmospheric turbulence intensity, topography, prediction horizon length and auto-correlation of wind speed and power is considered, and to take the time-variations into account, adaptive estimation methods are applied. Three estimation techniques are considered and compared, Extended Kalman Filtering, recursive least squares and a new modified recursive least squares algorithm. (au) EU-JOULE-3. 11 refs.

  13. Applying the model of excellence in dental healthcare

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tekić Jasmina


    Full Text Available Introduction. Models of excellence are considered a practical tool in the field of management that should help a variety of organizations, including dental, to carry out the measurement of the quality of provided services, and so define their position in relation to excellence. The quality of healthcare implies the degree within which the system of healthcare and health services increases the likelihood of positive treatment outcome. Objective. The aim of the present study was to define a model of excellence in the field of dental healthcare (DHC in the Republic of Serbia and suggest the model of DHC whose services will have the characteristics of outstanding service in the dental practice. Methods. In this study a specially designed questionnaire was used for the assessment of the maturity level of applied management regarding quality in healthcare organizations of the Republic of Serbia. The questionnaire consists of 13 units and a total of 240 questions. Results. The results of the study were discussed involving four areas: (1 defining the main criteria and sub-criteria, (2 the elements of excellence of DHC in the Republic of Serbia, (3 the quality of DHC in the Republic of Serbia, and (4 defining the framework of the model of excellence for the DHC in the Republic of Serbia. The main criteria which defined the framework and implementation model of excellence in the field of DHC in Serbia were: leadership, management, human resources, policy and strategy, other resources, processes, patients’ satisfaction, employee’s satisfaction, impact on society and business results. The model had two main parts: the possibilities for the first five criteria and options for the other four criteria. Conclusion. Excellence in DHC business as well as the excellence of provided dental services are increasingly becoming the norm and good practice, and progressively less the exception.

  14. Ethnobotanical Study of Tehsil Kabal, Swat District, KPK, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imtiaz Ahmad


    Full Text Available A total of 140 plants have been reported ethnobotanically from Tehsil Kabal, Swat District. These include the 133 plants (95% of angiosperms, 3 (2.14% of gymnosperms, and 2 (1.42% each of pteridophytes and fungi. The largest family is Lamiaceae represented by 11 species followed by Rosaceae represented by 9 species. Among angiosperms 76 (55.63% were herbs, 17 (12.78% were shrubs, and 40 (30.07% were trees; 127 plants (95.48% were dicot while 6 plants (4.51% were monocot. Most of the plants were used for more than one purpose. Generally the plants were used for medicinal, fuel, timber wood, food, and fodder for cattle purposes.

  15. Applying Atmospheric Measurements to Constrain Parameters of Terrestrial Source Models (United States)

    Hyer, E. J.; Kasischke, E. S.; Allen, D. J.


    Quantitative inversions of atmospheric measurements have been widely applied to constrain atmospheric budgets of a range of trace gases. Experiments of this type have revealed persistent discrepancies between 'bottom-up' and 'top-down' estimates of source magnitudes. The most common atmospheric inversion uses the absolute magnitude as the sole parameter for each source, and returns the optimal value of that parameter. In order for atmospheric measurements to be useful for improving 'bottom-up' models of terrestrial sources, information about other properties of the sources must be extracted. As the density and quality of atmospheric trace gas measurements improve, examination of higher-order properties of trace gas sources should become possible. Our model of boreal forest fire emissions is parameterized to permit flexible examination of the key uncertainties in this source. Using output from this model together with the UM CTM, we examined the sensitivity of CO concentration measurements made by the MOPITT instrument to various uncertainties in the boreal source: geographic distribution of burned area, fire type (crown fires vs. surface fires), and fuel consumption in above-ground and ground-layer fuels. Our results indicate that carefully designed inversion experiments have the potential to help constrain not only the absolute magnitudes of terrestrial sources, but also the key uncertainties associated with 'bottom-up' estimates of those sources.

  16. Linear model applied to the evaluation of pharmaceutical stability data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Renato Cesar Souza


    Full Text Available The expiry date on the packaging of a product gives the consumer the confidence that the product will retain its identity, content, quality and purity throughout the period of validity of the drug. The definition of this term in the pharmaceutical industry is based on stability data obtained during the product registration. By the above, this work aims to apply the linear regression according to the guideline ICH Q1E, 2003, to evaluate some aspects of a product undergoing in a registration phase in Brazil. With this propose, the evaluation was realized with the development center of a multinational company in Brazil, with samples of three different batches composed by two active principal ingredients in two different packages. Based on the preliminary results obtained, it was possible to observe the difference of degradation tendency of the product in two different packages and the relationship between the variables studied, added knowledge so new models of linear equations can be applied and developed for other products.

  17. Applying threshold models to donations to a green electricity fund

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ito, Nobuyuki; Takeuchi, Kenji [Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University (Japan); Tsuge, Takahiro [Faculty of Economics, Konan University (Japan); Kishimoto, Atsuo [National Institute of Advanced Industrial Science and Technology (Japan)


    This study applies a threshold model proposed by to analyze the diffusion process of donating behavior for renewable energy. We first use a stated preference survey to estimate the determinants of a decision to support the donation scheme under various predicted participation rates. Using the estimated coefficients, we simulate how herd behavior spreads and the participation rate reaches the equilibrium. The participation rate at the equilibrium is estimated as 37.88% when the suggested donation is 500 yen, while it is 17.76% when the suggested amount is 1000 yen. The influence of environmentalism and altruism is also examined, and we find that these motivations increase the participation rate by 31.51% on average. (author)

  18. Performance of salsnes water to algae treatment (swat) technology in a continuous mode for high algae recovery


    Ramos Barragán, Germán


    Master's thesis in Environmental technology. *KAR OK,.KONF MAI 2016* Many researchers consider efficient harvesting is the major bottleneck in cost efficient production of microalgae, contributing 20 – 30 % to total production cost. This thesis is the conclusion of a two years research project to develop Salsnes Water to Algae Treatment (SWAT) harvesting technology. SWAT uses two main processes: flocculation and filtration. The SWAT objectives were achieved, 95 % algae removal and p...

  19. Hierarchic stochastic modelling applied to intracellular Ca(2+ signals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gregor Moenke

    Full Text Available Important biological processes like cell signalling and gene expression have noisy components and are very complex at the same time. Mathematical analysis of such systems has often been limited to the study of isolated subsystems, or approximations are used that are difficult to justify. Here we extend a recently published method (Thurley and Falcke, PNAS 2011 which is formulated in observable system configurations instead of molecular transitions. This reduces the number of system states by several orders of magnitude and avoids fitting of kinetic parameters. The method is applied to Ca(2+ signalling. Ca(2+ is a ubiquitous second messenger transmitting information by stochastic sequences of concentration spikes, which arise by coupling of subcellular Ca(2+ release events (puffs. We derive analytical expressions for a mechanistic Ca(2+ model, based on recent data from live cell imaging, and calculate Ca(2+ spike statistics in dependence on cellular parameters like stimulus strength or number of Ca(2+ channels. The new approach substantiates a generic Ca(2+ model, which is a very convenient way to simulate Ca(2+ spike sequences with correct spiking statistics.

  20. Development of a Hydrologic Connectivity Dataset for SWAT Assessments in the US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. White


    Full Text Available Model-based water quality assessments are an important informer of conservation and environmental policy in the U.S. The recently completed national scale Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP is being replicated using an improved model populated with new and higher resolution data. National assessments are particularly difficult as models must operate with both a very large spatial extent (the contiguous U.S. while maintaining a level of granularity required to capture important small scale processes. In this research, we developed datasets to describe the hydrologic connectivity at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-12 level. Connectivity between 86,000 HUC-12s as provided by the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD was evaluated and corrected. We also detailed a method to resolve the highly detailed National Hydrography Dataset (NHD stream segments within each HUC-12 into vastly simplified representative channel schemes suitable for use in the recently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool + (SWAT+ model. This representative channel approach strikes a balance between computational complexity and accurate representation of the hydrologic system. These data will be tested in the upcoming CEAP II national assessment. Until then, all the WBD corrections and NHDPlus representative channel data are provided via the web for other researchers to evaluate and utilize.

  1. Defining Requirements and Applying Information Modeling for Protecting Enterprise Assets (United States)

    Fortier, Stephen C.; Volk, Jennifer H.

    The advent of terrorist threats has heightened local, regional, and national governments' interest in emergency response and disaster preparedness. The threat of natural disasters also challenges emergency responders to act swiftly and in a coordinated fashion. When a disaster occurs, an ad hoc coalition of pre-planned groups usually forms to respond to the incident. History has shown that these “system of systems” do not interoperate very well. Communications between fire, police and rescue components either do not work or are inefficient. Government agencies, non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and private industry use a wide array of software platforms for managing data about emergency conditions, resources and response activities. Most of these are stand-alone systems with very limited capability for data sharing with other agencies or other levels of government. Information technology advances have facilitated the movement towards an integrated and coordinated approach to emergency management. Other communication mechanisms, such as video teleconferencing, digital television and radio broadcasting, are being utilized to combat the challenges of emergency information exchange. Recent disasters, such as Hurricane Katrina and the tsunami in Indonesia, have illuminated the weaknesses in emergency response. This paper will discuss the need for defining requirements for components of ad hoc coalitions which are formed to respond to disasters. A goal of our effort was to develop a proof of concept that applying information modeling to the business processes used to protect and mitigate potential loss of an enterprise was feasible. These activities would be modeled both pre- and post-incident.

  2. Electrodynamic modeling applied to micro-strip gas chambers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fang, R


    Gas gain variations as functions of time, counting rate and substrate resistivity have been observed with Micro-Strip Gas Chambers (MSGC). Such a chamber is here treated as a system of 2 dielectrics, gas and substrate, with finite resistivities. Electric charging between their interface results in variations of the electric field and the gas gain. The electrodynamic equations (including time dependence) for such a system are proposed. A Rule of Charge Accumulation (RCA) is then derived which allows to determine the quantity and sign of charges accumulated on the surface at equilibrium. In order to apply the equations and the rule to MSGCs, a model of gas conductance induced by ionizing radiation is proposed, and a differential equation and some formulae are derived to calculate the rms dispersion and the spatial distribution of electrons (ions) in inhomogeneous electric fields. RCA coupled with a precise simulation of the electric fields gives the first quantitative explanation of gas gain variations of MSGCs. Finally an electrodynamic simulation program is made to reproduce the dynamic process of gain variation due to surface charging with an uncertainty of at most 15% relative to experimental data. As a consequence, the methods for stabilizing operation of MSGCs are proposed. (author) 18 refs.

  3. Applying Quality Function Deployment Model in Burn Unit Service Improvement. (United States)

    Keshtkaran, Ali; Hashemi, Neda; Kharazmi, Erfan; Abbasi, Mehdi


    Quality function deployment (QFD) is one of the most effective quality design tools. This study applies QFD technique to improve the quality of the burn unit services in Ghotbedin Hospital in Shiraz, Iran. First, the patients' expectations of burn unit services and their priorities were determined through Delphi method. Thereafter, burn unit service specifications were determined through Delphi method. Further, the relationships between the patients' expectations and service specifications and also the relationships between service specifications were determined through an expert group's opinion. Last, the final importance scores of service specifications were calculated through simple additive weighting method. The findings show that burn unit patients have 40 expectations in six different areas. These expectations are in 16 priority levels. Burn units also have 45 service specifications in six different areas. There are four-level relationships between the patients' expectations and service specifications and four-level relationships between service specifications. The most important burn unit service specifications have been identified in this study. The QFD model developed in the study can be a general guideline for QFD planners and executives.

  4. Applied genre analysis: a multi-perspective model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vijay K Bhatia


    Full Text Available Genre analysis can be viewed from two different perspectives: it may be seen as a reflection of the complex realities of the world of institutionalised communication, or it may be seen as a pedagogically effective and convenient tool for the design of language teaching programmes, often situated within simulated contexts of classroom activities. This paper makes an attempt to understand and resolve the tension between these two seemingly contentious perspectives to answer the question: "Is generic description a reflection of reality, or a convenient fiction invented by applied linguists?". The paper also discusses issues related to the nature and use of linguistic description in a genre-based educational enterprise, claiming that instead of using generic descriptions as models for linguistic reproduction of conventional forms to respond to recurring social contexts, as is often the case in many communication based curriculum contexts, they can be used as analytical resource to understand and manipulate complex inter-generic and multicultural realisations of professional discourse, which will enable learners to use generic knowledge to respond to novel social contexts and also to create new forms of discourse to achieve pragmatic success as well as other powerful human agendas.

  5. Hydrological Modeling of the Upper Indus Basin: A Case Study from a High-Altitude Glacierized Catchment Hunza

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Khan Garee


    Full Text Available The Soil andWater Assessment Tool (SWAT model combined with a temperature index and elevation band algorithm was applied to the Hunza watershed, where snow and glacier-melt are the major contributor to river flow. This study’s uniqueness is its use of a snow melt algorithm (temperature index with elevation bands combined with the SWAT, applied to evaluate the performance of the SWAT model in the highly snow and glacier covered watershed of the Upper Indus Basin in response to climate change on future streamflow volume at the outlet of the Hunza watershed, and its contribution to the Indus River System in both space and time, despite its limitation; it is not designed to cover the watershed of heterogeneous mountains. The model was calibrated for the years 1998–2004 and validated for the years 2008–2010. The model performance is evaluated using the four recommended statistical coefficients with uncertainty analysis (p-factor and r-factor. Simulations generated good calibration and validation results for the daily flow gauge. The model efficiency was evaluated, and a strong relationship was observed between the simulated and observed flows. The model results give a coefficient of determination (R2 of 0.82 and a Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency index (NS of 0.80 for the daily flow with values of p-factor (79% and r-factor (76%. The SWAT model was also used to evaluate climate change impact on hydrological regimes, the target watershed with three GCMs (General Circulation Model of the IPCC fifth report for 2030–2059 and 2070–2099, using 1980–2010 as the control period. Overall, temperature (1.39 C to 6.58 C and precipitation (31% indicated increased variability at the end of the century with increasing river flow (5%–10%; in particular, the analysis showed smaller absolute changes in the hydrology of the study area towards the end of the century. The results revealed that the calibrated model was more sensitive towards temperature and

  6. International Conference on Applied Mathematics, Modeling and Computational Science & Annual meeting of the Canadian Applied and Industrial Mathematics

    CERN Document Server

    Bélair, Jacques; Kunze, Herb; Makarov, Roman; Melnik, Roderick; Spiteri, Raymond J


    Focusing on five main groups of interdisciplinary problems, this book covers a wide range of topics in mathematical modeling, computational science and applied mathematics. It presents a wealth of new results in the development of modeling theories and methods, advancing diverse areas of applications and promoting interdisciplinary interactions between mathematicians, scientists, engineers and representatives from other disciplines. The book offers a valuable source of methods, ideas, and tools developed for a variety of disciplines, including the natural and social sciences, medicine, engineering, and technology. Original results are presented on both the fundamental and applied level, accompanied by an ample number of real-world problems and examples emphasizing the interdisciplinary nature and universality of mathematical modeling, and providing an excellent outline of today’s challenges. Mathematical modeling, with applied and computational methods and tools, plays a fundamental role in modern science a...

  7. A unified framework for benchmark dose estimation applied to mixed models and model averaging

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ritz, Christian; Gerhard, Daniel; Hothorn, Ludwig A.


    This article develops a framework for benchmark dose estimation that allows intrinsically nonlinear dose-response models to be used for continuous data in much the same way as is already possible for quantal data. This means that the same dose-response model equations may be applied to both...

  8. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation to Flow of Swat River and Glaciers in Hindu Kush Ranges, Swat District, Pakistan (2003-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saifullah Khan


    Full Text Available This work aims at the climate change impacts and adaptation to surface flow of Swat river and glacier resources in Swat river catchments area, Hindu Kush ranges, Northwest Pakistan. The data about temperature and precipitation have been collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Karachi, whereas the Swat River flow data from the Irrigation Department, Peshawar, Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. Two types of climate that is humid and undifferentiated highlands prevail over the area. The total precipitation recorded has been 41.8inches (1061.7 millimeters with mean monthly precipitation of 3.5 inches (88.9 millimeters having a decrease of -0.1 inch (-2.8 millimeters. The area has been humid during 2004 and currently at the threshold of the sub-humid climates (20-40 inches. Kalam valley experiences cold long winters (7 months and short warm summers (5 months. The mean temperature reveals an increase of 0.90C, maximum temperature 0.40C and mean minimum temperature 0.50Celsius. This increase in the temperature of the area has caused water stress and retreat of glaciers and affected the permafrost condition at higher altitudes in the area. The annual flow of the Swat river is 192.2 cubic meter/seconds with a decline of -0.03 cubic m/sec from 2003 to 2013. The annual trend of water flow is directly proportional to precipitation and contrary to maximum temperature during 2003 to 2012 and shows converse condition till 2013. The decrease in the flow of Swat river seems both in winter and summer season. The glaciers and snow covered area of the Kalam valley decreases with passage of time and required mitigation. The vulnerability of the study area to climate change can be minimized by the construction of small reservoirs, river embankments, improvement in sewerage and sanitation, planning for flood water, and revision of the water management policy, implementation, and establishment of research and development funds.

  9. Model predictive control based on reduced order models applied to belt conveyor system. (United States)

    Chen, Wei; Li, Xin


    In the paper, a model predictive controller based on reduced order model is proposed to control belt conveyor system, which is an electro-mechanics complex system with long visco-elastic body. Firstly, in order to design low-degree controller, the balanced truncation method is used for belt conveyor model reduction. Secondly, MPC algorithm based on reduced order model for belt conveyor system is presented. Because of the error bound between the full-order model and reduced order model, two Kalman state estimators are applied in the control scheme to achieve better system performance. Finally, the simulation experiments are shown that balanced truncation method can significantly reduce the model order with high-accuracy and model predictive control based on reduced-model performs well in controlling the belt conveyor system. Copyright © 2016 ISA. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Robust Decision-making Applied to Model Selection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hemez, Francois M. [Los Alamos National Laboratory


    The scientific and engineering communities are relying more and more on numerical models to simulate ever-increasingly complex phenomena. Selecting a model, from among a family of models that meets the simulation requirements, presents a challenge to modern-day analysts. To address this concern, a framework is adopted anchored in info-gap decision theory. The framework proposes to select models by examining the trade-offs between prediction accuracy and sensitivity to epistemic uncertainty. The framework is demonstrated on two structural engineering applications by asking the following question: Which model, of several numerical models, approximates the behavior of a structure when parameters that define each of those models are unknown? One observation is that models that are nominally more accurate are not necessarily more robust, and their accuracy can deteriorate greatly depending upon the assumptions made. It is posited that, as reliance on numerical models increases, establishing robustness will become as important as demonstrating accuracy.

  11. Novel multiscale modeling tool applied to Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew B Biggs

    Full Text Available Multiscale modeling is used to represent biological systems with increasing frequency and success. Multiscale models are often hybrids of different modeling frameworks and programming languages. We present the MATLAB-NetLogo extension (MatNet as a novel tool for multiscale modeling. We demonstrate the utility of the tool with a multiscale model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation that incorporates both an agent-based model (ABM and constraint-based metabolic modeling. The hybrid model correctly recapitulates oxygen-limited biofilm metabolic activity and predicts increased growth rate via anaerobic respiration with the addition of nitrate to the growth media. In addition, a genome-wide survey of metabolic mutants and biofilm formation exemplifies the powerful analyses that are enabled by this computational modeling tool.

  12. Novel multiscale modeling tool applied to Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation. (United States)

    Biggs, Matthew B; Papin, Jason A


    Multiscale modeling is used to represent biological systems with increasing frequency and success. Multiscale models are often hybrids of different modeling frameworks and programming languages. We present the MATLAB-NetLogo extension (MatNet) as a novel tool for multiscale modeling. We demonstrate the utility of the tool with a multiscale model of Pseudomonas aeruginosa biofilm formation that incorporates both an agent-based model (ABM) and constraint-based metabolic modeling. The hybrid model correctly recapitulates oxygen-limited biofilm metabolic activity and predicts increased growth rate via anaerobic respiration with the addition of nitrate to the growth media. In addition, a genome-wide survey of metabolic mutants and biofilm formation exemplifies the powerful analyses that are enabled by this computational modeling tool.

  13. Empirical modeling and data analysis for engineers and applied scientists

    CERN Document Server

    Pardo, Scott A


    This textbook teaches advanced undergraduate and first-year graduate students in Engineering and Applied Sciences to gather and analyze empirical observations (data) in order to aid in making design decisions. While science is about discovery, the primary paradigm of engineering and "applied science" is design. Scientists are in the discovery business and want, in general, to understand the natural world rather than to alter it. In contrast, engineers and applied scientists design products, processes, and solutions to problems. That said, statistics, as a discipline, is mostly oriented toward the discovery paradigm. Young engineers come out of their degree programs having taken courses such as "Statistics for Engineers and Scientists" without any clear idea as to how they can use statistical methods to help them design products or processes. Many seem to think that statistics is only useful for demonstrating that a device or process actually does what it was designed to do. Statistics courses emphasize creati...

  14. Adequateness of applying the Zmijewski model on Serbian companies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pavlović Vladan


    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to determine the accuracy of the prediction of Zmijewski model in Serbia on the eligible sample. At the same time, the paper identifies model's strengths, weaknesses and limitations of its possible application. Bearing in mind that the economic environment in Serbia is not similar to the United States at the time the model was developed, Zmijewski model is surprisingly accurate in the case of Serbian companies. The accuracy was slightly weaker than the model results in the U.S. in its original form, but much better than the results model gave in the U.S. in the period 1988-1991, and 1992-1999. Model gave also better results in Serbia comparing those in Croatia, even in Croatia model was adjusted.

  15. Apply Model Checking to Security Analysis in Trust Management (United States)


    checking tool called SMY Model checking is an automated technique that checks if desired purposes hold in the model. Our experience, reported here...efforts to build practical tools that answer such questions in many cases nevertheless by using a lightweight approach that leverages a mature model

  16. Applying a mesoscale atmospheric model to Svalbard glaciers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claremar, B.; Obleitner, F.; Reijmer, C.H.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/229345956; Pohjola, V.; Waxegard, A.; Karner, F.; Rutgersson, A.


    The mesoscale atmospheric model WRF is used over three Svalbard glaciers. The simulations are done with a setup of the model corresponding to the state-of-the-art model for polar conditions, Polar WRF, and it was validated using surface observations. The ERA-Interim reanalysis was used for boundary

  17. A biophysical model applied to the Benguela upwelling system ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    A three-dimensional biophysical model for the Benguela upwelling system is described. The model (NORWECOM) has been used in previous works to study model circulation, primary production and dispersion of particles (fish larvae and pollution) in the North Sea. The primary task of this work has been to validate its ...

  18. Applying the Job Characteristics Model to the College Education Experience (United States)

    Kass, Steven J.; Vodanovich, Stephen J.; Khosravi, Jasmine Y.


    Boredom is one of the most common complaints among university students, with studies suggesting its link to poor grades, drop out, and behavioral problems. Principles borrowed from industrial-organizational psychology may help prevent boredom and enrich the classroom experience. In the current study, we applied the core dimensions of the job…

  19. Environmental gamma radiation measurement in district Swat, Pakistan. (United States)

    Jabbar, T; Khan, K; Subhani, M S; Akhter, P; Jabbar, A


    External exposure to environmental gamma ray sources is an important component of exposure to the public. A survey was carried out to determine activity concentration levels and associated doses from (226)Ra, (232)Th, (40)K and (137)Cs by means of high-resolution gamma ray spectrometry in the Swat district, famous for tourism. The mean concentrations for (226)Ra, (232)Th and (40)K were found to be 50.4 +/- 0.7, 34.8 +/- 0.7 and 434.5 +/- 7.4 Bq kg(-1), respectively, in soil samples, which are slightly more than the world average values. However, (137)Cs was only found in the soil sample of Barikot with an activity concentration of 34 +/- 1.2 Bq kg(-1). Only (40)K was determined in vegetation samples with an average activity of 172.2 +/- 1.7 Bq kg(-1), whereas in water samples, all radionuclides were found below lower limits of detection. The radium equivalent activity in all soil samples is lower than the limit set in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development report (370 Bq kg(-1)). The value of the external exposure dose has been determined from the content of these radionuclides in soil. The average terrestrial gamma air absorbed dose rate was observed to be 62.4 nGy h(-1), which yields an annual effective dose of 0.08 mSv. The average value of the annual effective dose lies close to the global range of outdoor radiation exposure given in United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. However, the main component of the radiation dose to the population residing in the study area arises from cosmic ray due to high altitude.

  20. Polarimetric SAR interferometry applied to land ice: modeling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dall, Jørgen; Papathanassiou, Konstantinos; Skriver, Henning


    depths. The validity of the scattering models is examined using L-band polarimetric interferometric SAR data acquired with the EMISAR system over an ice cap located in the percolation zone of the Greenland ice sheet. Radar reflectors were deployed on the ice surface prior to the data acquisition in order......This paper introduces a few simple scattering models intended for the application of polarimetric SAR interfer-ometry to land ice. The principal aim is to eliminate the penetration bias hampering ice sheet elevation maps generated with single-channel SAR interferometry. The polarimetric coherent...... scattering models are similar to the oriented-volume model and the random-volume-over-ground model used in vegetation studies, but the ice models are adapted to the different geometry of land ice. Also, due to compaction, land ice is not uniform; a fact that must be taken into account for large penetration...

  1. Applying Model Checking to Industrial-Sized PLC Programs

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(CDS)2079190; Darvas, Daniel; Blanco Vinuela, Enrique; Tournier, Jean-Charles; Bliudze, Simon; Blech, Jan Olaf; Gonzalez Suarez, Victor M


    Programmable logic controllers (PLCs) are embedded computers widely used in industrial control systems. Ensuring that a PLC software complies with its specification is a challenging task. Formal verification has become a recommended practice to ensure the correctness of safety-critical software but is still underused in industry due to the complexity of building and managing formal models of real applications. In this paper, we propose a general methodology to perform automated model checking of complex properties expressed in temporal logics (\\eg CTL, LTL) on PLC programs. This methodology is based on an intermediate model (IM), meant to transform PLC programs written in various standard languages (ST, SFC, etc.) to different modeling languages of verification tools. We present the syntax and semantics of the IM and the transformation rules of the ST and SFC languages to the nuXmv model checker passing through the intermediate model. Finally, two real cases studies of \\CERN PLC programs, written mainly in th...

  2. Transforming Collaborative Process Models into Interface Process Models by Applying an MDA Approach (United States)

    Lazarte, Ivanna M.; Chiotti, Omar; Villarreal, Pablo D.

    Collaborative business models among enterprises require defining collaborative business processes. Enterprises implement B2B collaborations to execute these processes. In B2B collaborations the integration and interoperability of processes and systems of the enterprises are required to support the execution of collaborative processes. From a collaborative process model, which describes the global view of the enterprise interactions, each enterprise must define the interface process that represents the role it performs in the collaborative process in order to implement the process in a Business Process Management System. Hence, in this work we propose a method for the automatic generation of the interface process model of each enterprise from a collaborative process model. This method is based on a Model-Driven Architecture to transform collaborative process models into interface process models. By applying this method, interface processes are guaranteed to be interoperable and defined according to a collaborative process.

  3. Modeling Educational Choices. A Binomial Logit Model Applied to the Demand for Higher Education. (United States)

    Jimenez, Juan de Dios; Salas-Velasco, Manual


    Presents a microeconomic analysis of the choice of university degree course (3 year or 4 year course) Spanish students make on finishing their secondary studies and applies the developed binomial logit model to survey data from 388 high school graduates. Findings show the importance of various factors in determining the likelihood of choosing the…

  4. Applying Transtheoretical Model to Promote Physical Activities Among Women

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Pirzadeh, Asiyeh; Mostafavi, Firoozeh; Ghofranipour, Fazllolah; Feizi, Awat


    .... Inadequate regular physical activities among women, the importance of education in promoting the physical activities, and lack of studies on the women using transtheoretical model, persuaded us...

  5. Surface-bounded growth modeling applied to human mandibles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Per Rønsholt


    to yield a spatially dense field. Different methods for constructing the sparse field are compared. Adaptive Gaussian smoothing is the preferred method since it is parameter free and yields good results in practice. A new method, geometry-constrained diffusion, is used to simplify The most successful...... growth model is linear and based on results from shape analysis and principal component analysis. The growth model is tested in a cross validation study with good results. The worst case mean modeling error in the cross validation study is 3.7 mm. It occurs when modeling the shape and size of a 12 years...

  6. Community Mobilization Model Applied to Support Grandparents Raising Grandchildren (United States)

    Miller, Jacque; Bruce, Ann; Bundy-Fazioli, Kimberly; Fruhauf, Christine A.


    This article discusses the application of a community mobilization model through a case study of one community's response to address the needs of grandparents raising grandchildren. The community mobilization model presented is one that is replicable in addressing diverse community identified issues. Discussed is the building of the partnerships,…

  7. Applying a Model-Based Approach for Embedded System Development

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bunse, C.; Gross, H.G.; Peper, C.


    Model-based and component-oriented software development approaches are slowly superseding traditional ways of developing embedded systems. For investigating to which extent model-based development is feasible for embedded system development, we conducted a case study in which a small embedded system

  8. Surface-bounded growth modeling applied to human mandibles

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andresen, Per Rønsholt; Brookstein, F. L.; Conradsen, Knut


    automatically using shape features and a new algorithm called geometry-constrained diffusion. The semilandmarks are mapped into Procrustes space. Principal component analysis extracts a one-dimensional subspace, which is used to construct a linear growth model. The worst case mean modeling error in a cross...

  9. Applying reliability models to the maintenance of Space Shuttle software (United States)

    Schneidewind, Norman F.


    Software reliability models provide the software manager with a powerful tool for predicting, controlling, and assessing the reliability of software during maintenance. We show how a reliability model can be effectively employed for reliability prediction and the development of maintenance strategies using the Space Shuttle Primary Avionics Software Subsystem as an example.

  10. Hydrologic and water quality terminology as applied to modeling (United States)

    A survey of literature and examination in particular of terminology use in a previous special collection of modeling calibration and validation papers has been conducted to arrive at a list of consistent terminology recommended for writing about hydrologic and water quality model calibration and val...

  11. Studying, Teaching and Applying Sustainability Visions Using Systems Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Iwaniec


    Full Text Available The objective of articulating sustainability visions through modeling is to enhance the outcomes and process of visioning in order to successfully move the system toward a desired state. Models emphasize approaches to develop visions that are viable and resilient and are crafted to adhere to sustainability principles. This approach is largely assembled from visioning processes (resulting in descriptions of desirable future states generated from stakeholder values and preferences and participatory modeling processes (resulting in systems-based representations of future states co-produced by experts and stakeholders. Vision modeling is distinct from normative scenarios and backcasting processes in that the structure and function of the future desirable state is explicitly articulated as a systems model. Crafting, representing and evaluating the future desirable state as a systems model in participatory settings is intended to support compliance with sustainability visioning quality criteria (visionary, sustainable, systemic, coherent, plausible, tangible, relevant, nuanced, motivational and shared in order to develop rigorous and operationalizable visions. We provide two empirical examples to demonstrate the incorporation of vision modeling in research practice and education settings. In both settings, vision modeling was used to develop, represent, simulate and evaluate future desirable states. This allowed participants to better identify, explore and scrutinize sustainability solutions.

  12. An electricity billing model | Adetona | Journal of Applied Science ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Linear regression analysis has been employed to develop a model for predicting accurately the electricity billing for commercial consumers in Ogun State (Nigeria) at faster rate. The electricity billing model was implement-ed, executed and tested using embedded MATLAB function blocks. The correlations between the ...

  13. Applied model for the growth of the daytime mixed layer

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Batchvarova, E.; Gryning, Sven-Erik


    A slab model is proposed for developing the height of the mixed layer capped by stable air aloft. The model equations are closed by relating the consumption of energy (potential and kinetic) at the top of the mixed layer to the production of convective and mechanical turbulent kinetic energy with...

  14. Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression Applied to Credit Scoring Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pedro Henrique Melo Albuquerque

    Full Text Available Abstract This study used real data from a Brazilian financial institution on transactions involving Consumer Direct Credit (CDC, granted to clients residing in the Distrito Federal (DF, to construct credit scoring models via Logistic Regression and Geographically Weighted Logistic Regression (GWLR techniques. The aims were: to verify whether the factors that influence credit risk differ according to the borrower’s geographic location; to compare the set of models estimated via GWLR with the global model estimated via Logistic Regression, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution; and to verify the viability of using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models. The metrics used to compare the models developed via the two techniques were the AICc informational criterion, the accuracy of the models, the percentage of false positives, the sum of the value of false positive debt, and the expected monetary value of portfolio default compared with the monetary value of defaults observed. The models estimated for each region in the DF were distinct in their variables and coefficients (parameters, with it being concluded that credit risk was influenced differently in each region in the study. The Logistic Regression and GWLR methodologies presented very close results, in terms of predictive power and financial losses for the institution, and the study demonstrated viability in using the GWLR technique to develop credit scoring models for the target population in the study.

  15. Nonstandard Finite Difference Method Applied to a Linear Pharmacokinetics Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Oluwaseun Egbelowo


    Full Text Available We extend the nonstandard finite difference method of solution to the study of pharmacokinetic–pharmacodynamic models. Pharmacokinetic (PK models are commonly used to predict drug concentrations that drive controlled intravenous (I.V. transfers (or infusion and oral transfers while pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PD interaction models are used to provide predictions of drug concentrations affecting the response of these clinical drugs. We structure a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD scheme for the relevant system of equations which models this pharamcokinetic process. We compare the results obtained to standard methods. The scheme is dynamically consistent and reliable in replicating complex dynamic properties of the relevant continuous models for varying step sizes. This study provides assistance in understanding the long-term behavior of the drug in the system, and validation of the efficiency of the nonstandard finite difference scheme as the method of choice.

  16. Nonstandard Finite Difference Method Applied to a Linear Pharmacokinetics Model. (United States)

    Egbelowo, Oluwaseun; Harley, Charis; Jacobs, Byron


    We extend the nonstandard finite difference method of solution to the study of pharmacokinetic-pharmacodynamic models. Pharmacokinetic (PK) models are commonly used to predict drug concentrations that drive controlled intravenous (I.V.) transfers (or infusion and oral transfers) while pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic (PD) interaction models are used to provide predictions of drug concentrations affecting the response of these clinical drugs. We structure a nonstandard finite difference (NSFD) scheme for the relevant system of equations which models this pharamcokinetic process. We compare the results obtained to standard methods. The scheme is dynamically consistent and reliable in replicating complex dynamic properties of the relevant continuous models for varying step sizes. This study provides assistance in understanding the long-term behavior of the drug in the system, and validation of the efficiency of the nonstandard finite difference scheme as the method of choice.

  17. Alexandrium minutum growth controlled by phosphorus . An applied model (United States)

    Chapelle, A.; Labry, C.; Sourisseau, M.; Lebreton, C.; Youenou, A.; Crassous, M. P.


    Toxic algae are a worldwide problem threatening aquaculture, public health and tourism. Alexandrium, a toxic dinoflagellate proliferates in Northwest France estuaries (i.e. the Penzé estuary) causing Paralytic Shellfish Poisoning events. Vegetative growth, and in particular the role of nutrient uptake and growth rate, are crucial parameters to understand toxic blooms. With the goal of modelling in situ Alexandrium blooms related to environmental parameters, we first try to calibrate a zero-dimensional box model of Alexandrium growth. This work focuses on phosphorus nutrition. Our objective is to calibrate Alexandrium minutum as well as Heterocapsa triquetra (a non-toxic dinoflagellate) growth under different rates of phosphorus supply, other factors being optimal and constant. Laboratory experiments are used to calibrate two growth models and three uptake models for each species. Models are then used to simulate monospecific batch and semi-continuous experiments as well as competition between the two algae (mixed cultures). Results show that the Droop growth model together with linear uptake versus quota can represent most of our observations, although a power law uptake function can more accurately simulate our phosphorus uptake data. We note that such models have limitations in non steady-state situations and cell quotas can depend on a variety of factors, so care must be taken in extrapolating these results beyond the specific conditions studied.

  18. Robust model identification applied to type 1diabetes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Finan, Daniel Aaron; Jørgensen, John Bagterp; Poulsen, Niels Kjølstad


    In many realistic applications, process noise is known to be neither white nor normally distributed. When identifying models in these cases, it may be more effective to minimize a different penalty function than the standard sum of squared errors (as in a least-squares identification method). Thi...... accurate estimates of parameters than the standard least-squares solution, and more accurate model predictions for test data. The identification techniques are demonstrated on a simple toy problem as well as a physiological model of type 1 diabetes....

  19. Modular Modelling and Simulation Approach - Applied to Refrigeration Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Kresten Kjær; Stoustrup, Jakob


    This paper presents an approach to modelling and simulation of the thermal dynamics of a refrigeration system, specifically a reefer container. A modular approach is used and the objective is to increase the speed and flexibility of the developed simulation environment. The refrigeration system...... is divided into components where the inputs and outputs are described by a set of XML files that can be combined into a composite system model that may be loaded into MATLABtrade. A set of tools that allows the user to easily load the model and run a simulation are provided. The results show a simulation...

  20. Trailing edge noise model applied to wind turbine airfoils

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertagnolio, F.


    The aim of this work is firstly to provide a quick introduction to the theory of noise generation that are relevant to wind turbine technology with focus on trailing edge noise. Secondly, the socalled TNO trailing edge noise model developed by Parchen [1] is described in more details. The model is tested and validated by comparing with other results from the literature. Finally, this model is used in the optimization process of two reference airfoils in order to reduce their noise signature: the RISOE-B1-18 and the S809 airfoils. (au)

  1. Watershed modeling tools and data for prognostic and diagnostic (United States)

    Chambel-Leitao, P.; Brito, D.; Neves, R.


    's widely used in the world. Watershed models can be characterized by the high number of processes associated simulated. The estimation of these processes is also data intensive, requiring data on topography, land use / land cover, agriculture practices, soil type, precipitation, temperature, relative humidity, wind and radiation. Every year new data is being made available namely by satellite, that has allow to improve the quality of model input and also the calibration of the models (Galvão et. al, 2004b). Tools to cope with the vast amount of data have been developed: data formatting, data retrieving, data bases, metadata bases. The high number of processes simulated in watershed models makes them very wide in terms of output. The SWAT model outputs were modified to produce MOHID compliant result files (time series and HDF). These changes maintained the integrity of the original model, thus guarantying that results remain equal to the original version of SWAT. This allowed to output results in MOHID format, thus making it possible to immediately process it with MOHID visualization and data analysis tools (Chambel-Leitão et. al 2007; Trancoso et. al, 2009). Besides SWAT was modified to produce results files in HDF5 format, this allows the visualization of watershed properties (modeled by SWAT) in animated maps using MOHID GIS. The modified version of SWAT described here has been applied to various national and European projects. Results of the application of this modified version of SWAT to estimate hydrology and nutrients loads to estuaries and water bodies will be shown (Chambel-Leitão, 2008; Yarrow & Chambel-Leitão 2008; Chambel-Leitão et. al 2008; Yarrow & P. Chambel-Leitão, 2007; Yarrow & P. Chambel-Leitão, 2007; Coelho et. al., 2008). Keywords: Watershed models, SWAT, MOHID LAND, Hydrology, Nutrient Loads Arnold, J. G. and Fohrer, N. (2005). SWAT2000: current capabilities and research opportunities in applied watershed modeling. Hydrol. Process. 19, 563

  2. Agent-Based Modelling applied to 5D model of the HIV infection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Toufik Laroum


    The simplest model was the 3D mathematical model. But the complexity of this phenomenon and the diversity of cells and actors which affect its evolution requires the use of new approaches such as multi-agents approach that we have applied in this paper. The results of our simulator on the 5D model are promising because they are consistent with biological knowledge’s. Therefore, the proposed approach is well appropriate to the study of population dynamics in general and could help to understand and predict the dynamics of HIV infection.

  3. Hydrodynamics and water quality models applied to Sepetiba Bay (United States)

    Cunha, Cynara de L. da N.; Rosman, Paulo C. C.; Ferreira, Aldo Pacheco; Carlos do Nascimento Monteiro, Teófilo


    A coupled hydrodynamic and water quality model is used to simulate the pollution in Sepetiba Bay due to sewage effluent. Sepetiba Bay has a complicated geometry and bottom topography, and is located on the Brazilian coast near Rio de Janeiro. In the simulation, the dissolved oxygen (DO) concentration and biochemical oxygen demand (BOD) are used as indicators for the presence of organic matter in the body of water, and as parameters for evaluating the environmental pollution of the eastern part of Sepetiba Bay. Effluent sources in the model are taken from DO and BOD field measurements. The simulation results are consistent with field observations and demonstrate that the model has been correctly calibrated. The model is suitable for evaluating the environmental impact of sewage effluent on Sepetiba Bay from river inflows, assessing the feasibility of different treatment schemes, and developing specific monitoring activities. This approach has general applicability for environmental assessment of complicated coastal bays.

  4. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  5. Lithospheric structure models applied for locating the Romanian seismic events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Oancea


    Full Text Available The paper presents our attempts made for improving the locations obtained for local seismic events, using refined lithospheric structure models. The location program (based on Geiger method supposes a known model. The program is run for some seismic sequences which occurred in different regions, on the Romanian territory, using for each of the sequences three velocity models: 1 7 layers of constant velocity of seismic waves, as an average structure of the lithosphere for the whole territory; 2 site dependent structure (below each station, based on geophysical and geological information on the crust; 3 curves deseribing the dependence of propagation velocities with depth in the lithosphere, characterizing the 7 structural units delineated on the Romanian territory. The results obtained using the different velocity models are compared. Station corrections are computed for each data set. Finally, the locations determined for some quarry blasts are compared with the real ones.

  6. A Model-Based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain...

  7. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nucler Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin


    The paper investigates applications of functional modeling for accident management in complex industrial plant with special reference to nuclear power production. Main applications for information sharing among decision makers and decision support are identified. An overview of Multilevel Flow...

  8. Applying Functional Modeling for Accident Management of Nuclear Power Plant

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lind, Morten; Zhang, Xinxin


    The paper investigate applications of functional modeling for accident management in complex industrial plant with special reference to nuclear power production. Main applications for information sharing among decision makers and decision support are identified. An overview of Multilevel Flow...

  9. Joint regression analysis and AMMI model applied to oat improvement (United States)

    Oliveira, A.; Oliveira, T. A.; Mejza, S.


    In our work we present an application of some biometrical methods useful in genotype stability evaluation, namely AMMI model, Joint Regression Analysis (JRA) and multiple comparison tests. A genotype stability analysis of oat (Avena Sativa L.) grain yield was carried out using data of the Portuguese Plant Breeding Board, sample of the 22 different genotypes during the years 2002, 2003 and 2004 in six locations. In Ferreira et al. (2006) the authors state the relevance of the regression models and of the Additive Main Effects and Multiplicative Interactions (AMMI) model, to study and to estimate phenotypic stability effects. As computational techniques we use the Zigzag algorithm to estimate the regression coefficients and the agricolae-package available in R software for AMMI model analysis.

  10. Tensegrity applied to modelling the motion of viruses (United States)

    Simona-Mariana, Cretu; Gabriela-Catalina, Brinzan


    A considerable number of viruses' structures have been discovered and more are expected to be identified. Different viruses' symmetries can be observed at the nanoscale level. The mechanical models of some viruses realised by scientists are described in this paper, none of which has taken into consideration the internal deformation of subsystems. The authors' models for some viruses' elements are introduced, with rigid and flexible links, which reproduce the movements of viruses including internal deformations of the subunits.

  11. Linkage of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool and the Texas Water Availability Model to simulate the effects of brush management on monthly storage of Canyon Lake, south-central Texas, 1995-2010 (United States)

    Asquith, William H.; Bumgarner, Johnathan R.


    The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in cooperation with the Texas State Soil and Water Conservation Board, developed and applied an approach to create a linkage between the published upper Guadalupe River Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) brush-management (ashe juniper [Juniperus ashei]) model and the full authorization version Guadalupe River Water Availability Model (WAM). The SWAT model was published by the USGS, and the Guadalupe River WAM is available from the Texas Commission on Environmental Quality. The upper Guadalupe River watershed is a substantial component of the Guadalupe River WAM. This report serves in part as documentation of a proof of concept on the feasibility of linking these two water-resources planning models for the purpose of simulating possible increases in water storage in Canyon Lake as a result of different brush-management scenarios.

  12. Validation of models with constant bias: an applied approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Salvador Medina-Peralta


    Full Text Available Objective. This paper presents extensions to the statistical validation method based on the procedure of Freese when a model shows constant bias (CB in its predictions and illustrate the method with data from a new mechanistic model that predict weight gain in cattle. Materials and methods. The extensions were the hypothesis tests and maximum anticipated error for the alternative approach, and the confidence interval for a quantile of the distribution of errors. Results. The model evaluated showed CB, once the CB is removed and with a confidence level of 95%, the magnitude of the error does not exceed 0.575 kg. Therefore, the validated model can be used to predict the daily weight gain of cattle, although it will require an adjustment in its structure based on the presence of CB to increase the accuracy of its forecasts. Conclusions. The confidence interval for the 1-α quantile of the distribution of errors after correcting the constant bias, allows determining the top limit for the magnitude of the error of prediction and use it to evaluate the evolution of the model in the forecasting of the system. The confidence interval approach to validate a model is more informative than the hypothesis tests for the same purpose.

  13. Applying artificial vision models to human scene understanding. (United States)

    Aminoff, Elissa M; Toneva, Mariya; Shrivastava, Abhinav; Chen, Xinlei; Misra, Ishan; Gupta, Abhinav; Tarr, Michael J


    How do we understand the complex patterns of neural responses that underlie scene understanding? Studies of the network of brain regions held to be scene-selective-the parahippocampal/lingual region (PPA), the retrosplenial complex (RSC), and the occipital place area (TOS)-have typically focused on single visual dimensions (e.g., size), rather than the high-dimensional feature space in which scenes are likely to be neurally represented. Here we leverage well-specified artificial vision systems to explicate a more complex understanding of how scenes are encoded in this functional network. We correlated similarity matrices within three different scene-spaces arising from: (1) BOLD activity in scene-selective brain regions; (2) behavioral measured judgments of visually-perceived scene similarity; and (3) several different computer vision models. These correlations revealed: (1) models that relied on mid- and high-level scene attributes showed the highest correlations with the patterns of neural activity within the scene-selective network; (2) NEIL and SUN-the models that best accounted for the patterns obtained from PPA and TOS-were different from the GIST model that best accounted for the pattern obtained from RSC; (3) The best performing models outperformed behaviorally-measured judgments of scene similarity in accounting for neural data. One computer vision method-NEIL ("Never-Ending-Image-Learner"), which incorporates visual features learned as statistical regularities across web-scale numbers of scenes-showed significant correlations with neural activity in all three scene-selective regions and was one of the two models best able to account for variance in the PPA and TOS. We suggest that these results are a promising first step in explicating more fine-grained models of neural scene understanding, including developing a clearer picture of the division of labor among the components of the functional scene-selective brain network.

  14. Applying artificial vision models to human scene understanding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elissa Michele Aminoff


    Full Text Available How do we understand the complex patterns of neural responses that underlie scene understanding? Studies of the network of brain regions held to be scene-selective – the parahippocampal/lingual region (PPA, the retrosplenial complex (RSC, and the occipital place area (TOS – have typically focused on single visual dimensions (e.g., size, rather than the high-dimensional feature space in which scenes are likely to be neurally represented. Here we leverage well-specified artificial vision systems to explicate a more complex understanding of how scenes are encoded in this functional network. We correlated similarity matrices within three different scene-spaces arising from: 1 BOLD activity in scene-selective brain regions; 2 behavioral measured judgments of visually-perceived scene similarity; and 3 several different computer vision models. These correlations revealed: 1 models that relied on mid- and high-level scene attributes showed the highest correlations with the patterns of neural activity within the scene-selective network; 2 NEIL and SUN – the models that best accounted for the patterns obtained from PPA and TOS – were different from the GIST model that best accounted for the pattern obtained from RSC; 3 The best performing models outperformed behaviorally-measured judgments of scene similarity in accounting for neural data. One computer vision method – NEIL (Never-Ending-Image-Learner, which incorporates visual features learned as statistical regularities across web-scale numbers of scenes – showed significant correlations with neural activity in all three scene-selective regions and was one of the two models best able to account for variance in the PPA and TOS. We suggest that these results are a promising first step in explicating more fine-grained models of neural scene understanding, including developing a clearer picture of the division of labor among the components of the functional scene-selective brain network.

  15. A Model-based Prognostics Approach Applied to Pneumatic Valves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J. Daigle


    Full Text Available Within the area of systems health management, the task of prognostics centers on predicting when components will fail. Model-based prognostics exploits domain knowledge of the system, its components, and how they fail by casting the underlying physical phenomena in a physics-based model that is derived from first principles. Uncertainty cannot be avoided in prediction, therefore, algorithms are employed that help in managing these uncertainties. The particle filtering algorithm has become a popular choice for model-based prognostics due to its wide applicability, ease of implementation, and support for uncertainty management. We develop a general model-based prognostics methodology within a robust probabilistic framework using particle filters. As a case study, we consider a pneumatic valve from the Space Shuttle cryogenic refueling system. We develop a detailed physics-based model of the pneumatic valve, and perform comprehensive simulation experiments to illustrate our prognostics approach and evaluate its effectiveness and robustness. The approach is demonstrated using historical pneumatic valve data from the refueling system.

  16. Radiative transfer theory applied to ocean bottom modeling. (United States)

    Quijano, Jorge E; Zurk, Lisa M


    Research on the propagation of acoustic waves in the ocean bottom sediment is of interest for active sonar applications such as target detection and remote sensing. The interaction of acoustic energy with the sea floor sublayers is usually modeled with techniques based on the full solution of the wave equation, which sometimes leads to mathematically intractable problems. An alternative way to model wave propagation in layered media containing random scatterers is the radiative transfer (RT) formulation, which is a well established technique in the electromagnetics community and is based on the principle of conservation of energy. In this paper, the RT equation is used to model the backscattering of acoustic energy from a layered elastic bottom sediment containing distributions of independent scatterers due to a constant single frequency excitation in the water column. It is shown that the RT formulation provides insight into the physical phenomena of scattering and conversion of energy between waves of different polarizations.

  17. Applied Bounded Model Checking for Interlocking System Designs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Peleska, Jan; Pinger, Ralf


    In this article the verification and validation of interlocking systems is investigated. Reviewing both geographical and route-related interlocking, the verification objectives can be structured from a perspective of computer science into (1) verification of static semantics, and (2) verification...... of behavioural (operational) semantics. The former checks that the plant model – that is, the software components reflecting the physical components of the interlocking system – has been set up in an adequate way. The latter investigates trains moving through the network, with the objective to uncover potential...... safety violations. From a formal methods perspective, these verification objectives can be approached by theorem proving, global, or bounded model checking. This article explains the techniques for application of bounded model checking techniques, and discusses their advantages in comparison...

  18. The OTP-model applied to the Aklim site database (United States)

    Mraini, Kamilia; Jabiri, Abdelhadi; Benkhaldoun, Zouhair; Bounhir, Aziza; Hach, Youssef; Sabil, Mohammed; Habib, Abdelfettah


    Within the framework of the site prospection for the future European Extremely Large Telescope (E-ELT), a wide site characterization was achieved. Aklim site located at an altitude of 2350 m at the geographical coordinates: lat.= 30°07'38" N, long.= 8°18'31" W , in the Moroccan Middle Atlas Mountains, was one of the candidate sites chosen by the Framework Programme VI (FP6) of the European Union. To complete the fulfilled study ([19]; [21]), we have used the ModelOTP (model of optical turbulence profiles) established by [15] and improved by [6]. This model allows getting the built-in profiles of the optical turbulence under various conditions. In this paper, we present an overview of the Aklim database results, in the boundary layers and in the free atmosphere separately and we make a comparison with Cerro Pachon result [15].

  19. Modeling the microstructure of surface by applying BRDF function (United States)

    Plachta, Kamil


    The paper presents the modeling of surface microstructure using a bidirectional reflectance distribution function. This function contains full information about the reflectance properties of the flat surfaces - it is possible to determine the share of the specular, directional and diffuse components in the reflected luminous stream. The software is based on the authorial algorithm that uses selected elements of this function models, which allows to determine the share of each component. Basing on obtained data, the surface microstructure of each material can be modeled, which allows to determine the properties of this materials. The concentrator directs the reflected solar radiation onto the photovoltaic surface, increasing, at the same time, the value of the incident luminous stream. The paper presents an analysis of selected materials that can be used to construct the solar concentrator system. The use of concentrator increases the power output of the photovoltaic system by up to 17% as compared to the standard solution.

  20. Continuous Molecular Fields Approach Applied to Structure-Activity Modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Baskin, Igor I


    The Method of Continuous Molecular Fields is a universal approach to predict various properties of chemical compounds, in which molecules are represented by means of continuous fields (such as electrostatic, steric, electron density functions, etc). The essence of the proposed approach consists in performing statistical analysis of functional molecular data by means of joint application of kernel machine learning methods and special kernels which compare molecules by computing overlap integrals of their molecular fields. This approach is an alternative to traditional methods of building 3D structure-activity and structure-property models based on the use of fixed sets of molecular descriptors. The methodology of the approach is described in this chapter, followed by its application to building regression 3D-QSAR models and conducting virtual screening based on one-class classification models. The main directions of the further development of this approach are outlined at the end of the chapter.

  1. Hidden multidimensional social structure modeling applied to biased social perception (United States)

    Maletić, Slobodan; Zhao, Yi


    Intricacies of the structure of social relations are realized by representing a collection of overlapping opinions as a simplicial complex, thus building latent multidimensional structures, through which agents are, virtually, moving as they exchange opinions. The influence of opinion space structure on the distribution of opinions is demonstrated by modeling consensus phenomena when the opinion exchange between individuals may be affected by the false consensus effect. The results indicate that in the cases with and without bias, the road toward consensus is influenced by the structure of multidimensional space of opinions, and in the biased case, complete consensus is achieved. The applications of proposed modeling framework can easily be generalized, as they transcend opinion formation modeling.

  2. A new inverse regression model applied to radiation biodosimetry (United States)

    Higueras, Manuel; Puig, Pedro; Ainsbury, Elizabeth A.; Rothkamm, Kai


    Biological dosimetry based on chromosome aberration scoring in peripheral blood lymphocytes enables timely assessment of the ionizing radiation dose absorbed by an individual. Here, new Bayesian-type count data inverse regression methods are introduced for situations where responses are Poisson or two-parameter compound Poisson distributed. Our Poisson models are calculated in a closed form, by means of Hermite and negative binomial (NB) distributions. For compound Poisson responses, complete and simplified models are provided. The simplified models are also expressible in a closed form and involve the use of compound Hermite and compound NB distributions. Three examples of applications are given that demonstrate the usefulness of these methodologies in cytogenetic radiation biodosimetry and in radiotherapy. We provide R and SAS codes which reproduce these examples. PMID:25663804

  3. Gordon's model applied to nursing care of people with depression. (United States)

    Temel, M; Kutlu, F Y


    Psychiatric nurses should consider the patient's biological, psychological and social aspects. Marjory Gordon's Functional Health Pattern Model ensures a holistic approach for the patient. To examine the effectiveness of Gordon's Functional Health Pattern Model in reducing depressive symptoms, increasing self-efficacy, coping with depression and increasing hope in people with depression. A quasi-experimental two-group pre-test and post-test design was adopted. Data were collected from April 2013 to May 2014 from people with depression at the psychiatry clinic of a state hospital in Turkey; they were assigned to the intervention (n = 34) or control group (n = 34). The intervention group received nursing care according to Gordon's Functional Health Pattern Model and routine care, while the control group received routine care only. The Beck Depression Inventory, Beck Hopelessness Scale and Depression Coping Self-Efficacy Scale were used. The intervention group had significantly lower scores on the Beck Depression Inventory and Beck Hopelessness Scale at the post-test and 3-month follow-up; they had higher scores on the Depression Coping Self-Efficacy Scale at the 3-month follow-up when compared with the control group. The study was conducted at only one psychiatry clinic. The intervention and control group patients were at the clinic at the same time and influenced each other. Moreover, because clinical routines were in progress during the study, the results cannot only be attributed to nursing interventions. Nursing models offer guidance for the care provided. Practices based on the models return more efficient and systematic caregiving results with fewer health problems. Gordon's Functional Health Pattern Model was effective in improving the health of people with depression and could be introduced as routine care with ongoing evaluation in psychiatric clinics. More research is needed to evaluate Gordon's Nursing Model effect on people with depression. Future

  4. Applied Bounded Model Checking for Interlocking System Designs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haxthausen, Anne Elisabeth; Peleska, Jan; Pinger, Ralf


    of behavioural (operational) semantics. The former checks that the plant model – that is, the software components reflecting the physical components of the interlocking system – has been set up in an adequate way. The latter investigates trains moving through the network, with the objective to uncover potential...

  5. Applying the knowledge creation model to the management of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In present-day society, the need to manage indigenous knowledge is widely recognised. However, there is a debate in progress on whether or not indigenous knowledge can be easily managed. The purpose of this paper is to examine the possibility of using knowledge management models like knowledge creation theory ...

  6. Applying Buddhist Practices to Advocacy: The Advocacy-Serving Model (United States)

    Warren, Jane; Klepper, Konja K.; Lambert, Serena; Nunez, Johnna; Williams, Susan


    Creating and retaining empathic connections with the most disenfranchised among us can take a toll on the wellness of counselor advocates. The Advocacy-Serving Model is introduced as a creative approach to strengthening the ability of advocates to serve through enhancing awareness, focusing actions, and connecting to community. The model…

  7. Applying an Employee-Motivation Model to Prevent Student Plagiarism. (United States)

    Malouff, John M.; Sims, Randi L.


    A model based on Vroom's expectancy theory of employee motivation posits that instructors can prevent plagiarism by ensuring that students understand the rules of ethical writing, expect assignments to be manageable and have personal benefits, and expect plagiarism to be difficult and have important personal costs. (SK)

  8. Dynamics Model Applied to Pricing Options with Uncertain Volatility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lorella Fatone


    model is proposed. The data used to test the calibration problem included observations of asset prices over a finite set of (known equispaced discrete time values. Statistical tests were used to estimate the statistical significance of the two parameters of the Black-Scholes model: the volatility and the drift. The effects of these estimates on the option pricing problem were investigated. In particular, the pricing of an option with uncertain volatility in the Black-Scholes framework was revisited, and a statistical significance was associated with the price intervals determined using the Black-Scholes-Barenblatt equations. Numerical experiments involving synthetic and real data were presented. The real data considered were the daily closing values of the S&P500 index and the associated European call and put option prices in the year 2005. The method proposed here for calibrating the Black-Scholes dynamics model could be extended to other science and engineering models that may be expressed in terms of stochastic dynamical systems.

  9. A comparison of various modelling approaches applied to Cholera ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The application of a methodology that proposes the use of spectral methods to inform the development of statistical forecasting models for cholera case data is explored in this paper. The seasonal behaviour of the target variable (cholera cases) is analysed using singular spectrum analysis followed by spectrum estimation ...

  10. A comparison of various modelling approaches applied to Cholera ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Abstract. The application of a methodology that proposes the use of spectral methods to inform the development of statistical forecasting models for cholera case data is explored in this pa- per. The seasonal behaviour of the target variable (cholera cases) is analysed using singular spectrum analysis followed by spectrum ...

  11. An Analytical Model for Learning: An Applied Approach. (United States)

    Kassebaum, Peter Arthur

    A mediated-learning package, geared toward non-traditional students, was developed for use in the College of Marin's cultural anthropology courses. An analytical model for learning was used in the development of the package, utilizing concepts related to learning objectives, programmed instruction, Gestalt psychology, cognitive psychology, and…

  12. Leadership Identity Development: Challenges in Applying a Developmental Model (United States)

    Komives, Susan R.; Longerbeam, Susan D.; Mainella, Felicia; Osteen, Laura; Owen, Julie E.; Wagner, Wendy


    The leadership identity development (LID) grounded theory (Komives, Owen, Longerbeam, Mainella, & Osteen, 2005) and related LID model (Komives, Longerbeam, Owen, Mainella, & Osteen, 2006) present a framework for understanding how individual college students develop the social identity of being collaborative, relational leaders…

  13. The Limitations of Applying Rational Decision-Making Models

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    also assumes that the individual operates as a rational decision- making organism in determining the benefits and costs of taking action to control pregnancies. The model .... dren, Male, Maldives,january 1990. Ms. S. Collins. Lecturer in Psychology. Chancellor College. University of Malawi. P.O. Box 280. Zomba. Malawi.

  14. A Spatial Lattice Model Applied for Meteorological Visualization and Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingyue Lu


    Full Text Available Meteorological information has obvious spatial-temporal characteristics. Although it is meaningful to employ a geographic information system (GIS to visualize and analyze the meteorological information for better identification and forecasting of meteorological weather so as to reduce the meteorological disaster loss, modeling meteorological information based on a GIS is still difficult because meteorological elements generally have no stable shape or clear boundary. To date, there are still few GIS models that can satisfy the requirements of both meteorological visualization and analysis. In this article, a spatial lattice model based on sampling particles is proposed to support both the representation and analysis of meteorological information. In this model, a spatial sampling particle is regarded as the basic element that contains the meteorological information, and the location where the particle is placed with the time mark. The location information is generally represented using a point. As these points can be extended to a surface in two dimensions and a voxel in three dimensions, if these surfaces and voxels can occupy a certain space, then this space can be represented using these spatial sampling particles with their point locations and meteorological information. In this case, the full meteorological space can then be represented by arranging numerous particles with their point locations in a certain structure and resolution, i.e., the spatial lattice model, and extended at a higher resolution when necessary. For practical use, the meteorological space is logically classified into three types of spaces, namely the projection surface space, curved surface space, and stereoscopic space, and application-oriented spatial lattice models with different organization forms of spatial sampling particles are designed to support the representation, inquiry, and analysis of meteorological information within the three types of surfaces. Cases

  15. Applying Transtheoretical Model to Promote Physical Activities Among Women (United States)

    Pirzadeh, Asiyeh; Mostafavi, Firoozeh; Ghofranipour, Fazllolah; Feizi, Awat


    Background: Physical activity is one of the most important indicators of health in communities but different studies conducted in the provinces of Iran showed that inactivity is prevalent, especially among women. Objectives: Inadequate regular physical activities among women, the importance of education in promoting the physical activities, and lack of studies on the women using transtheoretical model, persuaded us to conduct this study with the aim of determining the application of transtheoretical model in promoting the physical activities among women of Isfahan. Materials and Methods: This research was a quasi-experimental study which was conducted on 141 women residing in Isfahan, Iran. They were randomly divided into case and control groups. In addition to the demographic information, their physical activities and the constructs of the transtheoretical model (stages of change, processes of change, decisional balance, and self-efficacy) were measured at 3 time points; preintervention, 3 months, and 6 months after intervention. Finally, the obtained data were analyzed through t test and repeated measures ANOVA test using SPSS version 16. Results: The results showed that education based on the transtheoretical model significantly increased physical activities in 2 aspects of intensive physical activities and walking, in the case group over the time. Also, a high percentage of people have shown progress during the stages of change, the mean of the constructs of processes of change, as well as pros and cons. On the whole, a significant difference was observed over the time in the case group (P < 0.01). Conclusions: This study showed that interventions based on the transtheoretical model can promote the physical activity behavior among women. PMID:26834796

  16. Consideration of an applied model of public health program infrastructure. (United States)

    Lavinghouze, René; Snyder, Kimberly; Rieker, Patricia; Ottoson, Judith


    Systemic infrastructure is key to public health achievements. Individual public health program infrastructure feeds into this larger system. Although program infrastructure is rarely defined, it needs to be operationalized for effective implementation and evaluation. The Ecological Model of Infrastructure (EMI) is one approach to defining program infrastructure. The EMI consists of 5 core (Leadership, Partnerships, State Plans, Engaged Data, and Managed Resources) and 2 supporting (Strategic Understanding and Tactical Action) elements that are enveloped in a program's context. We conducted a literature search across public health programs to determine support for the EMI. Four of the core elements were consistently addressed, and the other EMI elements were intermittently addressed. The EMI provides an initial and partial model for understanding program infrastructure, but additional work is needed to identify evidence-based indicators of infrastructure elements that can be used to measure success and link infrastructure to public health outcomes, capacity, and sustainability.

  17. Applying learning theories and instructional design models for effective instruction. (United States)

    Khalil, Mohammed K; Elkhider, Ihsan A


    Faculty members in higher education are involved in many instructional design activities without formal training in learning theories and the science of instruction. Learning theories provide the foundation for the selection of instructional strategies and allow for reliable prediction of their effectiveness. To achieve effective learning outcomes, the science of instruction and instructional design models are used to guide the development of instructional design strategies that elicit appropriate cognitive processes. Here, the major learning theories are discussed and selected examples of instructional design models are explained. The main objective of this article is to present the science of learning and instruction as theoretical evidence for the design and delivery of instructional materials. In addition, this article provides a practical framework for implementing those theories in the classroom and laboratory. Copyright © 2016 The American Physiological Society.

  18. Synthetic neural modeling applied to a real-world artifact.


    Edelman, G M; Reeke, G N; Gall, W E; Tononi, G; Williams, D.; Sporns, O.


    We describe the general design, operating principles, and performance of a neurally organized, multiply adaptive device (NOMAD) under control of a nervous system simulated in a computer. The complete system, Darwin IV, is the latest in a series of models based on the theory of neuronal group selection, which postulates that adaptive behavior is the result of selection in somatic time among synaptic populations. The simulated brain of Darwin IV includes visual and motor areas that are connecte...

  19. Applying CIPP Model for Learning-Object Management (United States)

    Morgado, Erla M. Morales; Peñalvo, Francisco J. García; Martín, Carlos Muñoz; Gonzalez, Miguel Ángel Conde

    Although knowledge management process needs to receive some evaluation in order to determine their suitable functionality. There is not a clear definition about the stages where LOs need to be evaluated and the specific metrics to continuously promote their quality. This paper presents a proposal for LOs evaluation during their management for e-learning systems. To achieve this, we suggest specific steps for LOs design, implementation and evaluation into the four stages proposed by CIPP model (Context, Input, Process, Product).

  20. New-Zeland-based "Sand Waves and Turbulence" experimental programme (United States)

    Coleman, Stephen; Nikora, Vladimir; Melville, Bruce; Goring, Derek; Clunie, Thomas; Friedrich, Heide


    The ("New-Zealand-based Sand Waves and Turbulence") research programme was carried out to advance understanding of subaqueous sand waves. The programme was based around detailed measurements at varying scales of bed morphologies and associated flow fields as sand waves formed from plane-bed conditions and grew to equilibrium. This paper outlines the philosophy and details of the programme, with the aim of providing insight into experiment and analysis design and methodologies for studies of highly-variable bed surfaces and flows. Example challenges addressed in the programme include the measurement over large spatial domains of developing flow fields and three-dimensional bed morphology, including flow measurements below roughness (sand-wave) crests, and how to interpret the collected measurements. Insights into sand-wave dynamics that have arisen from the programme are presented to illustrate the values of the programme and the developed methodologies. Results are presented in terms of mobile-bed processes, and flow-bed interaction and flow processes for fixed-bed roughness and erodible beds, respectively.

  1. Simulation of Road Traffic Applying Model-Driven Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)



    Full Text Available Road traffic is an important phenomenon in modern societies. The study of its different aspects in the multiple scenarios where it happens is relevant for a huge number of problems. At the same time, its scale and complexity make it hard to study. Traffic simulations can alleviate these difficulties, simplifying the scenarios to consider and controlling their variables. However, their development also presents difficulties. The main ones come from the need to integrate the way of working of researchers and developers from multiple fields. Model-Driven Engineering (MDE addresses these problems using Modelling Languages (MLs and semi-automatic transformations to organise and describe the development, from requirements to code. This paper presents a domain-specific MDE framework for simulations of road traffic. It comprises an extensible ML, support tools, and development guidelines. The ML adopts an agent-based approach, which is focused on the roles of individuals in road traffic and their decision-making. A case study shows the process to model a traffic theory with the ML, and how to specialise that specification for an existing target platform and its simulations. The results are the basis for comparison with related work.

  2. Applying fuzzy analytic network process in quality function deployment model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Ali Afsharkazemi


    Full Text Available In this paper, we propose an empirical study of QFD implementation when fuzzy numbers are used to handle the uncertainty associated with different components of the proposed model. We implement fuzzy analytical network to find the relative importance of various criteria and using fuzzy numbers we calculate the relative importance of these factors. The proposed model of this paper uses fuzzy matrix and house of quality to study the products development in QFD and also the second phase i.e. part deployment. In most researches, the primary objective is only on CRs to implement the quality function deployment and some other criteria such as production costs, manufacturing costs etc were disregarded. The results of using fuzzy analysis network process based on the QFD model in Daroupat packaging company to develop PVDC show that the most important indexes are being waterproof, resistant pill packages, and production cost. In addition, the PVDC coating is the most important index in terms of company experts’ point of view.

  3. Geographically Isolated Wetlands and Catchment Hydrology: A Modified Model Analyses (United States)

    Evenson, G.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; D'Amico, E.


    Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), typically defined as depressional wetlands surrounded by uplands, support an array of hydrological and ecological processes. However, key research questions concerning the hydrological connectivity of GIWs and their impacts on downgradient surface waters remain unanswered. This is particularly important for regulation and management of these systems. For example, in the past decade United States Supreme Court decisions suggest that GIWs can be afforded protection if significant connectivity exists between these waters and traditional navigable waters. Here we developed a simulation procedure to quantify the effects of various spatial distributions of GIWs across the landscape on the downgradient hydrograph using a refined version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a catchment-scale hydrological simulation model. We modified the SWAT FORTRAN source code and employed an alternative hydrologic response unit (HRU) definition to facilitate an improved representation of GIW hydrologic processes and connectivity relationships to other surface waters, and to quantify their downgradient hydrological effects. We applied the modified SWAT model to an ~ 202 km2 catchment in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA, exhibiting a substantial population of mapped GIWs. Results from our series of GIW distribution scenarios suggest that: (1) Our representation of GIWs within SWAT conforms to field-based characterizations of regional GIWs in most respects; (2) GIWs exhibit substantial seasonally-dependent effects upon downgradient base flow; (3) GIWs mitigate peak flows, particularly following high rainfall events; and (4) The presence of GIWs on the landscape impacts the catchment water balance (e.g., by increasing groundwater outflows). Our outcomes support the hypothesis that GIWs have an important catchment-scale effect on downgradient streamflow.

  4. Inverse geothermal modelling applied to Danish sedimentary basins

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Poulsen, Soren E.; Balling, Niels; Bording, Thue S.


    . The numerical model was utilized for predicting and contouring temperatures at 2000 and 3000 m depths and for two main geothermal reservoir units, the Gassum (Lower Jurassic-Upper Triassic) and Bunter/Skagerrak (Triassic) reservoirs, both currently utilized for geothermal energy production. Temperature...... gradients to depths of 2000-3000 m are generally around 25-30. degrees C km(-1), locally up to about 35. degrees C km(-1). Large regions have geothermal reservoirs with characteristic temperatures ranging from ca. 40-50. degrees C, at 1000-1500 m depth, to ca. 80-110. degrees C, at 2500-3500 m, however...

  5. Comparison of various modelling approaches applied to cholera case data

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Van Den Bergh, F


    Full Text Available and outbreaks of cholera in Bangladesh have been demonstrated by Huq et al. [15]. A study by Gil et al. [12] indicated a relationship between cholera incidence and elevated sea surface temperatures in Peru, including e ects from the 1997{1998 El Ni~no, while... regression has previously been used to model cholera case data in the Bangladesh study of Huq et al. [15]. Further details on Poisson regression may be found in McCullagh & Nelder [22], Agresti [2] or Montgomery et al. [23]. Negative binomial regression...

  6. Synthetic neural modeling applied to a real-world artifact. (United States)

    Edelman, G M; Reeke, G N; Gall, W E; Tononi, G; Williams, D; Sporns, O


    We describe the general design, operating principles, and performance of a neurally organized, multiply adaptive device (NOMAD) under control of a nervous system simulated in a computer. The complete system, Darwin IV, is the latest in a series of models based on the theory of neuronal group selection, which postulates that adaptive behavior is the result of selection in somatic time among synaptic populations. The simulated brain of Darwin IV includes visual and motor areas that are connected with NOMAD by telemetry. Under suitable conditions, Darwin IV can be trained to track a light moving in a random path. After such training, it can approach colored blocks and collect them to a home position. Following a series of contacts with such blocks, value signals received through a "snout" that senses conductivity allow it to sort these blocks on the basis of differences in color associated with differences in their conductivity. Darwin IV represents a new approach to synthetic neural modeling (SNM), a technique in which large-scale computer simulations are employed to analyze the interactions among the nervous system, the phenotype, and the environment of a designed organism as behavior develops. Darwin IV retains the advantages of SNM while avoiding the difficulties and pitfalls of attempting to simulate a rich environment in addition to a brain.

  7. Neighborhood Design, Physical Activity, and Wellbeing: Applying the Walkability Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Adriana A. Zuniga-Teran


    Full Text Available Neighborhood design affects lifestyle physical activity, and ultimately human wellbeing. There are, however, a limited number of studies that examine neighborhood design types. In this research, we examine four types of neighborhood designs: traditional development, suburban development, enclosed community, and cluster housing development, and assess their level of walkability and their effects on physical activity and wellbeing. We examine significant associations through a questionnaire (n = 486 distributed in Tucson, Arizona using the Walkability Model. Among the tested neighborhood design types, traditional development showed significant associations and the highest value for walkability, as well as for each of the two types of walking (recreation and transportation representing physical activity. Suburban development showed significant associations and the highest mean values for mental health and wellbeing. Cluster housing showed significant associations and the highest mean value for social interactions with neighbors and for perceived safety from crime. Enclosed community did not obtain the highest means for any wellbeing benefit. The Walkability Model proved useful in identifying the walkability categories associated with physical activity and perceived crime. For example, the experience category was strongly and inversely associated with perceived crime. This study provides empirical evidence of the importance of including vegetation, particularly trees, throughout neighborhoods in order to increase physical activity and wellbeing. Likewise, the results suggest that regular maintenance is an important strategy to improve mental health and overall wellbeing in cities.

  8. Neighborhood Design, Physical Activity, and Wellbeing: Applying the Walkability Model. (United States)

    Zuniga-Teran, Adriana A; Orr, Barron J; Gimblett, Randy H; Chalfoun, Nader V; Guertin, David P; Marsh, Stuart E


    Neighborhood design affects lifestyle physical activity, and ultimately human wellbeing. There are, however, a limited number of studies that examine neighborhood design types. In this research, we examine four types of neighborhood designs: traditional development, suburban development, enclosed community, and cluster housing development, and assess their level of walkability and their effects on physical activity and wellbeing. We examine significant associations through a questionnaire ( n = 486) distributed in Tucson, Arizona using the Walkability Model. Among the tested neighborhood design types, traditional development showed significant associations and the highest value for walkability, as well as for each of the two types of walking (recreation and transportation) representing physical activity. Suburban development showed significant associations and the highest mean values for mental health and wellbeing. Cluster housing showed significant associations and the highest mean value for social interactions with neighbors and for perceived safety from crime. Enclosed community did not obtain the highest means for any wellbeing benefit. The Walkability Model proved useful in identifying the walkability categories associated with physical activity and perceived crime. For example, the experience category was strongly and inversely associated with perceived crime. This study provides empirical evidence of the importance of including vegetation, particularly trees, throughout neighborhoods in order to increase physical activity and wellbeing. Likewise, the results suggest that regular maintenance is an important strategy to improve mental health and overall wellbeing in cities.

  9. Applying a Hybrid MCDM Model for Six Sigma Project Selection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fu-Kwun Wang


    Full Text Available Six Sigma is a project-driven methodology; the projects that provide the maximum financial benefits and other impacts to the organization must be prioritized. Project selection (PS is a type of multiple criteria decision making (MCDM problem. In this study, we present a hybrid MCDM model combining the decision-making trial and evaluation laboratory (DEMATEL technique, analytic network process (ANP, and the VIKOR method to evaluate and improve Six Sigma projects for reducing performance gaps in each criterion and dimension. We consider the film printing industry of Taiwan as an empirical case. The results show that our study not only can use the best project selection, but can also be used to analyze the gaps between existing performance values and aspiration levels for improving the gaps in each dimension and criterion based on the influential network relation map.

  10. Two Dimensional Projection Pursuit Applied to Gaussian Mixture Model Fitting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natella Likhterov


    Full Text Available In this paper we seek a Gaussian mixture model (GMM of an n-variate probability density function. Usually the parameters of GMMs are determined by a maximum likelihood (ML criterion. A practical deficiency of ML fitting of GMMs is poor performance when dealing with high-dimensional data since a large sample size is needed to match the accuracy that is possible in low dimensions. We propose a method to fit the GMM to multivariate data which is based on the two-dimensional projection pursuit (PP method. By means of simulations we compare the proposed method with a one-dimensional PP method for GMM. We conclude that a combination of one- and twodimensional PP methods could be useful in some applications.

  11. Virtual building environments (VBE) - Applying information modeling to buildings

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bazjanac, Vladimir


    A Virtual Building Environment (VBE) is a ''place'' where building industry project staffs can get help in creating Building Information Models (BIM) and in the use of virtual buildings. It consists of a group of industry software that is operated by industry experts who are also experts in the use of that software. The purpose of a VBE is to facilitate expert use of appropriate software applications in conjunction with each other to efficiently support multidisciplinary work. This paper defines BIM and virtual buildings, and describes VBE objectives, set-up and characteristics of operation. It informs about the VBE Initiative and the benefits from a couple of early VBE projects.

  12. Sensorless position estimator applied to nonlinear IPMC model (United States)

    Bernat, Jakub; Kolota, Jakub


    This paper addresses the issue of estimating position for an ionic polymer metal composite (IPMC) known as electro active polymer (EAP). The key step is the construction of a sensorless mode considering only current feedback. This work takes into account nonlinearities caused by electrochemical effects in the material. Owing to the recent observer design technique, the authors obtained both Lyapunov function based estimation law as well as sliding mode observer. To accomplish the observer design, the IPMC model was identified through a series of experiments. The research comprises time domain measurements. The identification process was completed by means of geometric scaling of three test samples. In the proposed design, the estimated position accurately tracks the polymer position, which is illustrated by the experiments.

  13. Applying the welfare model to at-own-risk discharges. (United States)

    Krishna, Lalit Kumar Radha; Menon, Sumytra; Kanesvaran, Ravindran


    "At-own-risk discharges" or "self-discharges" evidences an irretrievable breakdown in the patient-clinician relationship when patients leave care facilities before completion of medical treatment and against medical advice. Dissolution of the therapeutic relationship terminates the physician's duty of care and professional liability with respect to care of the patient. Acquiescence of an at-own-risk discharge by the clinician is seen as respecting patient autonomy. The validity of such requests pivot on the assumptions that the patient is fully informed and competent to invoke an at-own-risk discharge and that care up to the point of the at-own-risk discharge meets prevailing clinical standards. Palliative care's use of a multidisciplinary team approach challenges both these assumptions. First by establishing multiple independent therapeutic relations between professionals in the multidisciplinary team and the patient who persists despite an at-own-risk discharge. These enduring therapeutic relationships negate the suggestion that no duty of care is owed the patient. Second, the continued employ of collusion, familial determinations, and the circumnavigation of direct patient involvement in family-centric societies compromises the patient's decision-making capacity and raises questions as to the patient's decision-making capacity and their ability to assume responsibility for the repercussions of invoking an at-own-risk discharge. With the validity of at-own-risk discharge request in question and the welfare and patient interest at stake, an alternative approach to assessing at-own-risk discharge requests are called for. The welfare model circumnavigates these concerns and preserves the patient's welfare through the employ of a multidisciplinary team guided holistic appraisal of the patient's specific situation that is informed by clinical and institutional standards and evidenced-based practice. The welfare model provides a robust decision-making framework for

  14. Nonspherical Radiation Driven Wind Models Applied to Be Stars (United States)

    Arauxo, F. X.


    ABSTRACT. In this work we present a model for the structure of a radiatively driven wind in the meridional plane of a hot star. Rotation effects and simulation of viscous forces were included in the motion equations. The line radiation force is considered with the inclusion of the finite disk correction in self-consistent computations which also contain gravity darkening as well as distortion of the star by rotation. An application to a typical BlV star leads to mass-flux ratios between equator and pole of the order of 10 and mass loss rates in the range 5.l0 to Mo/yr. Our envelope models are flattened towards the equator and the wind terminal velocities in that region are rather high (1000 Km/s). However, in the region near the star the equatorial velocity field is dominated by rotation. RESUMEN. Se presenta un modelo de la estructura de un viento empujado radiativamente en el plano meridional de una estrella caliente. Se incluyeron en las ecuaciones de movimiento los efectos de rotaci6n y la simulaci6n de fuerzas viscosas. Se consider6 la fuerza de las lineas de radiaci6n incluyendo la correcci6n de disco finito en calculos autoconsistentes los cuales incluyen oscurecimiento gravitacional asi como distorsi6n de la estrella por rotaci6n. La aplicaci6n a una estrella tipica BlV lleva a cocientes de flujo de masa entre el ecuador y el polo del orden de 10 de perdida de masa en el intervalo 5.l0 a 10 Mo/ano. Nuestros modelos de envolvente estan achatados hacia el ecuador y las velocidads terminales del viento en esa regi6n son bastante altas (1000 Km/s). Sin embargo, en la regi6n cercana a la estrella el campo de velocidad ecuatorial esta dominado por la rotaci6n. Key words: STARS-BE -- STARS-WINDS

  15. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to assess land use impact on water resources in an East African watershed (United States)

    Baker, Tracy J.; Miller, Scott N.


    SummaryLand cover and land use changes in Kenya's Rift Valley have altered the hydrologic response of the River Njoro watershed by changing the partitioning of excess rainfall into surface discharge and groundwater recharge. The watershed contributes a significant amount of water to Lake Nakuru National Park, an internationally recognized Ramsar site, as well as groundwater supplies for local communities and the city of Nakuru. Three land use maps representing a 17-year period when the region underwent significant transitions served as inputs for hydrologic modeling using the Automated Geospatial Watershed Assessment (AGWA) tool, a GIS-based hydrologic modeling system. AGWA was used to parameterize the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a hydrologic model suitable for assessing the relative impact of land cover change on hydrologic response. The SWAT model was calibrated using observation data taken during the 1990s with high annual concordance. Simulation results showed that land use changes have resulted in corresponding increases in surface runoff and decreases in groundwater recharge. Hydrologic changes were highly variable both spatially and temporally, and the uppermost reaches of the forested highlands were most significantly affected. These changes have negative implications for the ecological health of the river system as well as Lake Nakuru and local communities.

  16. Atomistic Method Applied to Computational Modeling of Surface Alloys (United States)

    Bozzolo, Guillermo H.; Abel, Phillip B.


    The formation of surface alloys is a growing research field that, in terms of the surface structure of multicomponent systems, defines the frontier both for experimental and theoretical techniques. Because of the impact that the formation of surface alloys has on surface properties, researchers need reliable methods to predict new surface alloys and to help interpret unknown structures. The structure of surface alloys and when, and even if, they form are largely unpredictable from the known properties of the participating elements. No unified theory or model to date can infer surface alloy structures from the constituents properties or their bulk alloy characteristics. In spite of these severe limitations, a growing catalogue of such systems has been developed during the last decade, and only recently are global theories being advanced to fully understand the phenomenon. None of the methods used in other areas of surface science can properly model even the already known cases. Aware of these limitations, the Computational Materials Group at the NASA Glenn Research Center at Lewis Field has developed a useful, computationally economical, and physically sound methodology to enable the systematic study of surface alloy formation in metals. This tool has been tested successfully on several known systems for which hard experimental evidence exists and has been used to predict ternary surface alloy formation (results to be published: Garces, J.E.; Bozzolo, G.; and Mosca, H.: Atomistic Modeling of Pd/Cu(100) Surface Alloy Formation. Surf. Sci., 2000 (in press); Mosca, H.; Garces J.E.; and Bozzolo, G.: Surface Ternary Alloys of (Cu,Au)/Ni(110). (Accepted for publication in Surf. Sci., 2000.); and Garces, J.E.; Bozzolo, G.; Mosca, H.; and Abel, P.: A New Approach for Atomistic Modeling of Pd/Cu(110) Surface Alloy Formation. (Submitted to Appl. Surf. Sci.)). Ternary alloy formation is a field yet to be fully explored experimentally. The computational tool, which is based on

  17. Applying revised gap analysis model in measuring hotel service quality. (United States)

    Lee, Yu-Cheng; Wang, Yu-Che; Chien, Chih-Hung; Wu, Chia-Huei; Lu, Shu-Chiung; Tsai, Sang-Bing; Dong, Weiwei


    With the number of tourists coming to Taiwan growing by 10-20 % since 2010, the number has increased due to an increasing number of foreign tourists, particularly after deregulation allowed admitting tourist groups, followed later on by foreign individual tourists, from mainland China. The purpose of this study is to propose a revised gap model to evaluate and improve service quality in Taiwanese hotel industry. Thus, service quality could be clearly measured through gap analysis, which was more effective for offering direction in developing and improving service quality. The HOLSERV instrument was used to identify and analyze service gaps from the perceptions of internal and external customers. The sample for this study included three main categories of respondents: tourists, employees, and managers. The results show that five gaps influenced tourists' evaluations of service quality. In particular, the study revealed that Gap 1 (management perceptions vs. customer expectations) and Gap 9 (service provider perceptions of management perceptions vs. service delivery) were more critical than the others in affecting perceived service quality, making service delivery the main area of improvement. This study contributes toward an evaluation of the service quality of the Taiwanese hotel industry from the perspectives of customers, service providers, and managers, which is considerably valuable for hotel managers. It was the aim of this study to explore all of these together in order to better understand the possible gaps in the hotel industry in Taiwan.

  18. Optical Neural Network Models Applied To Logic Program Execution (United States)

    Stormon, Charles D.


    Logic programming is being used extensively by Artificial Intelligence researchers to solve problems including natural language processing and expert systems. These languages, of which Prolog is the most widely used, promise to revolutionize software engineering, but much greater performance is needed. Researchers have demonstrated the applicability of neural network models to the solution of certain NP-complete problems, but these methods are not obviously applicable to the execution of logic programs. This paper outlines the use of neural networks in four aspects of the logic program execution cycle, and discusses results of a simulation of three of these. Four neural network functional units are described, called the substitution agent, the clause filter, the structure processor, and the heuristics generator, respectively. Simulation results suggest that the system described may provide several orders of magnitude improvement in execution speed for large logic programs. However, practical implementation of the proposed architecture will require the application of optical computing techniques due to the large number of neurons required, and the need for massive, adaptive connectivity.

  19. A model of smoldering combustion applied to flexible polyurethane foams (United States)

    Ohlemiller, T. J.; Rogers, F.; Bellan, J.


    Smoldering combustion, particularly in upholstery and bedding materials, has been proven a serious life hazard. The simplest representation of this hazard situation is one-dimensional downward propagation of a smolder wave against a buoyant upflow (cocurrent smolder); the configuration treated here is identical in all respects to this except for the presence of a forced flow replacing the buoyant one. The complex degradation chemistry of the polyurethanes is here reduced to the two major overall reactions of char formation and char oxidation. The model solutions, which are in reasonable agreement with experimental results, show the smolder process to be oxygen-limited, which leads to some very simple trends. More subtle behavior aspects determine actual propagation velocity, fraction of fuel consumed, and apparent equivalence ratio (all of which are variable). The self-insulating character of the smolder wave makes it viable in a wide-ranging set of conditions if the igniting stimulus is sufficiently long. These results have significant implications regarding the problem of smolder prevention or hindrance.

  20. A variable polytrope index applied to planet and material models (United States)

    Thielen, Kevin; Weppner, Stephen; Zielinski, Alexander


    We introduce a new approach to a century-old assumption which enhances not only planetary interior calculations but also high-pressure material physics. We show that the polytropic index is the derivative of the bulk modulus with respect to pressure. We then augment the traditional polytrope theory by including a variable polytrope index within the confines of the Lane-Emden differential equation. To investigate the possibilities of this method, we create a high-quality universal equation of state, transforming the traditional polytrope method to a tool with the potential for excellent predictive power. The theoretical foundation of our equation of state is the same elastic observable which we found equivalent to the polytrope index, the derivative of the bulk modulus with respect to pressure. We calculate the density-pressure of six common materials up to 1018 Pa, mass-radius relationships for the same materials, and produce plausible density-radius models for the rocky planets of our Solar system. We argue that the bulk modulus and its derivatives have been underutilized in previous planet formation methods. We constrain the material surface observables for the inner core, outer core, and mantle of planet Earth in a systematic way including pressure, bulk modulus, and the polytrope index in the analysis. We believe that this variable polytrope method has the necessary apparatus to be extended further to gas giants and stars. As supplemental material we provide computer code to calculate multi-layered planets.

  1. Applying horizontal diffusion on pressure surface to mesoscale models on terrain-following coordinates (United States)

    Hann-Ming Henry Juang; Ching-Teng Lee; Yongxin Zhang; Yucheng Song; Ming-Chin Wu; Yi-Leng Chen; Kevin Kodama; Shyh-Chin Chen


    The National Centers for Environmental Prediction regional spectral model and mesoscale spectral model (NCEP RSM/MSM) use a spectral computation on perturbation. The perturbation is defined as a deviation between RSM/MSM forecast value and their outer model or analysis value on model sigma-coordinate surfaces. The horizontal diffusion used in the models applies...

  2. Assessing the Efficacy of the SWAT Auto-Irrigation Function to Simulate Irrigation, Evapotranspiration, and Crop Response to Management Strategies of the Texas High Plains

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Chen


    Full Text Available In the semi-arid Texas High Plains, the underlying Ogallala Aquifer is experiencing continuing decline due to long-term pumping for irrigation with limited recharge. Accurate simulation of irrigation and other associated water balance components are critical for meaningful evaluation of the effects of irrigation management strategies. Modelers often employ auto-irrigation functions within models such as the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. However, some studies have raised concerns as to whether the function is able to adequately simulate representative irrigation practices. In this study, observations of climate, irrigation, evapotranspiration (ET, leaf area index (LAI, and crop yield derived from an irrigated lysimeter field at the USDA-ARS Conservation and Production Research Laboratory at Bushland, Texas were used to evaluate the efficacy of the SWAT auto-irrigation functions. Results indicated good agreement between simulated and observed daily ET during both model calibration (2001–2005 and validation (2006–2010 periods for the baseline scenario (Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency; NSE ≥ 0.80. The auto-irrigation scenarios resulted in reasonable ET simulations under all the thresholds of soil water deficit (SWD triggers as indicated by NSE values > 0.5. However, the auto-irrigation function did not adequately represent field practices, due to the continuation of irrigation after crop maturity and excessive irrigation when SWD triggers were less than the static irrigation amount.

  3. The morpho-agronomic characterization study of Lens culinaris germplasm under salt marsh habitat in Swat, Pakistan

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Rabia Noor; Shujaul Mulk Khan; Fayaz Ahmad; Murtaza Hussain; Elsayed Fathi Abd_Allah; Abdulaziz A. Alqarawi; Abeer Hashem; Abdullah Aldubise


    The present research study evaluate and identify the most suitable and high yielding genotypes of Lens culinaris for the salt marsh habitat of Swat in moist temperate sort of agro climatic environment of Pakistan...

  4. Model Proposition for the Fiscal Policies Analysis Applied in Economic Field

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Larisa Preda


    Full Text Available This paper presents a study about fiscal policy applied in economic development. Correlations between macroeconomics and fiscal indicators signify the first steep in our analysis. Next step is a new model proposal for the fiscal and budgetary choices. This model is applied on the date of the Romanian case.

  5. Does the interpersonal model apply across eating disorder diagnostic groups? A structural equation modeling approach. (United States)

    Ivanova, Iryna V; Tasca, Giorgio A; Proulx, Geneviève; Bissada, Hany


    Interpersonal model has been validated with binge-eating disorder (BED), but it is not yet known if the model applies across a range of eating disorders (ED). The goal of this study was to investigate the validity of the interpersonal model in anorexia nervosa (restricting type; ANR and binge-eating/purge type; ANBP), bulimia nervosa (BN), BED, and eating disorder not otherwise specified (EDNOS). Data from a cross-sectional sample of 1459 treatment-seeking women diagnosed with ANR, ANBP, BN, BED and EDNOS were examined for indirect effects of interpersonal problems on ED psychopathology mediated through negative affect. Findings from structural equation modeling demonstrated the mediating role of negative affect in four of the five diagnostic groups. There were significant, medium to large (.239, .558), indirect effects in the ANR, BN, BED and EDNOS groups but not in the ANBP group. The results of the first reverse model of interpersonal problems as a mediator between negative affect and ED psychopathology were nonsignificant, suggesting the specificity of these hypothesized paths. However, in the second reverse model ED psychopathology was related to interpersonal problems indirectly through negative affect. This is the first study to find support for the interpersonal model of ED in a clinical sample of women with diverse ED diagnoses, though there may be a reciprocal relationship between ED psychopathology and relationship problems through negative affect. Negative affect partially explains the relationship between interpersonal problems and ED psychopathology in women diagnosed with ANR, BN, BED and EDNOS. Interpersonal psychotherapies for ED may be addressing the underlying interpersonal-affective difficulties, thereby reducing ED psychopathology. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Optimal selection for and mutation testing using a combination of 'easy to apply' probability models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library


    ... optimal ascertainment, many risk assessment models and prior probability models have been developed and evaluated (; ). Four such models, the Claus, Gilpin, Frank and Evans model (; ; ; ) are empirically derived scoring systems, easy to apply in daily practice with the use of a pencil and a paper and easy to understand for both counsellor...

  7. Comparison of streamflow prediction skills from NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT toward an ensemble flood forecasting framework over large scales (United States)

    Rajib, M. A.; Tavakoly, A. A.; Du, L.; Merwade, V.; Lin, P.


    Considering the differences in how individual models represent physical processes for runoff generation and streamflow routing, use of ensemble output is desirable in an operational streamflow estimation and flood forecasting framework. To enable the use of ensemble streamflow, comparison of multiple hydrologic models at finer spatial resolution over a large domain is yet to be explored. The objective of this work is to compare streamflow prediction skills from three different land surface/hydrologic modeling frameworks: NOAH-MP/RAPID, VIC/RAPID and SWAT, over the Ohio River Basin with a drainage area of 491,000 km2. For a uniform comparison, all the three modeling frameworks share the same setup with common weather inputs, spatial resolution, and gauge stations being employed in the calibration procedure. The runoff output from NOAH-MP and VIC land surface models is routed through a vector-based river routing model named RAPID, that is set up on the high resolution NHDPlus reaches and catchments. SWAT model is used with its default tightly coupled surface-subsurface hydrology and channel routing components to obtain streamflow for each NHDPlus reach. Model simulations are performed in two modes, including: (i) hindcasting/calibration mode in which the models are calibrated against USGS daily streamflow observations at multiple locations, and (ii) validation mode in which the calibrated models are executed at 3-hourly time interval for historical flood events. In order to have a relative assessment on the model-specific nature of biases during storm events as well as dry periods, time-series of surface runoff and baseflow components at the specific USGS gauging locations are extracted from corresponding observed/simulated streamflow data using a recursive digital filter. The multi-model comparison presented here provides insights toward future model improvements and also serves as the first step in implementing an operational ensemble flood forecasting framework

  8. A parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology applied to a street canyon air pollution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ottosen, Thor Bjørn; Ketzel, Matthias; Skov, Henrik


    Mathematical models are increasingly used in environmental science thus increasing the importance of uncertainty and sensitivity analyses. In the present study, an iterative parameter estimation and identifiability analysis methodology is applied to an atmospheric model – the Operational Street...... applied for the uncertainty calculations underestimated the parameter uncertainties. The model parameter uncertainty was qualitatively assessed to be significant, and reduction strategies were identified. © 2016 Elsevier Ltd...

  9. Semantic Web applications and tools for the life sciences: SWAT4LS 2010. (United States)

    Burger, Albert; Paschke, Adrian; Romano, Paolo; Marshall, M Scott; Splendiani, Andrea


    As Semantic Web technologies mature and new releases of key elements, such as SPARQL 1.1 and OWL 2.0, become available, the Life Sciences continue to push the boundaries of these technologies with ever more sophisticated tools and applications. Unsurprisingly, therefore, interest in the SWAT4LS (Semantic Web Applications and Tools for the Life Sciences) activities have remained high, as was evident during the third international SWAT4LS workshop held in Berlin in December 2010. Contributors to this workshop were invited to submit extended versions of their papers, the best of which are now made available in the special supplement of BMC Bioinformatics. The papers reflect the wide range of work in this area, covering the storage and querying of Life Sciences data in RDF triple stores, tools for the development of biomedical ontologies and the semantics-based integration of Life Sciences as well as clinicial data.

  10. A comparison of economic evaluation models as applied to geothermal energy technology (United States)

    Ziman, G. M.; Rosenberg, L. S.


    Several cost estimation and financial cash flow models have been applied to a series of geothermal case studies. In order to draw conclusions about relative performance and applicability of these models to geothermal projects, the consistency of results was assessed. The model outputs of principal interest in this study were net present value, internal rate of return, or levelized breakeven price. The models used were VENVAL, a venture analysis model; the Geothermal Probabilistic Cost Model (GPC Model); the Alternative Power Systems Economic Analysis Model (APSEAM); the Geothermal Loan Guarantee Cash Flow Model (GCFM); and the GEOCOST and GEOCITY geothermal models. The case studies to which the models were applied include a geothermal reservoir at Heber, CA; a geothermal eletric power plant to be located at the Heber site; an alcohol fuels production facility to be built at Raft River, ID; and a direct-use, district heating system in Susanville, CA.

  11. Impacts of Climate and Land Use/Cover Change on Streamflow Using SWAT and a Separation Method for the Xiying River Basin in Northwestern China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jing Guo


    Full Text Available A better understanding of the effects of climate change and land use/cover change (LUCC on streamflow promotes the long-term water planning and management in the arid regions of northwestern China. In this paper, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and a separation approach were used to evaluate and separate the effects of climate change and LUCC on streamflow in the Xiying River basin. The SWAT model was calibrated by the hydro-meteorological data from 1980–1989 to obtain the optimum parameters, which were validated by the subsequent application to the period between 1990–2008. Moreover, streamflow under several scenarios with different climate change and land use conditions in 1990–2008 and 2010–2069 were further investigated. Results indicate that, in the period of 1990–2008, the streamflow was dominated by climate change (i.e., changes in precipitation and temperature, which led to a 102.8% increase in the mean annual streamflow, whereas LUCC produced a decrease of 2.8%. Furthermore, in the future period of 2010–2039, the mean annual streamflow will decrease by 5.4% and 4.5% compared with the data of 1961–1990 under scenarios A2 and B2, respectively, while it will decrease by 21.2% and 16.9% in the period of 2040–2069, respectively.

  12. SWAT-MODSIM-PSO optimization of multi-crop planning in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran, under the impacts of climate change. (United States)

    Fereidoon, Majid; Koch, Manfred


    Agriculture is one of the environmental/economic sectors that may adversely be affected by climate change, especially, in already nowadays water-scarce regions, like the Middle East. One way to cope with future changes in absolute as well as seasonal (irrigation) water amounts can be the adaptation of the agricultural crop pattern in a region, i.e. by planting crops which still provide high yields and so economic benefits to farmers under such varying climate conditions. To do this properly, the whole cascade starting from climate change, effects on hydrology and surface water availability, subsequent effects on crop yield, agricultural areas available, and, finally, economic value of a multi-crop cultivation pattern must be known. To that avail, a complex coupled simulation-optimization tool SWAT-LINGO-MODSIM-PSO (SLMP) has been developed here and used to find the future optimum cultivation area of crops for the maximization of the economic benefits in five irrigation-fed agricultural plains in the south of the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) southwest Iran. Starting with the SWAT distributed hydrological model, the KR-streamflow as well as the inflow into the Karkheh-reservoir, as the major storage of irrigation water, is calibrated and validated, based on 1985-2004 observed discharge data. In the subsequent step, the SWAT-predicted streamflow is fed into the MODSIM river basin Decision Support System to simulate and optimize the water allocation between different water users (agricultural, environmental, municipal and industrial) under standard operating policy (SOP) rules. The final step is the maximization of the economic benefit in the five agricultural plains through constrained PSO (particle swarm optimization) by adjusting the cultivation areas (decision variables) of different crops (wheat, barley, maize and "others"), taking into account their specific prizes and optimal crop yields under water deficiency, with the latter computed in the LINGO

  13. Applying Resilience Promotion Training Among Special Forces Police Officers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Judith P. Andersen


    Full Text Available Police Special Forces (a.k.a. special weapons and tactics [SWAT] officers are tasked with responding to the most critical situations, including incidents that require specialized skills and equipment beyond typical policing activities. In this study, we tested the feasibility of applying Arnetz and colleagues’ resilience promotion training that was developed for patrol officers to SWAT team officers (n = 18. The resilience promotion training program included psychoeducation focused on police stress and resilience, and the practice of resilience promotion techniques (controlled breathing and imagery while listening to audio-recorded critical incident scenarios. The aims of this study were to (a examine if a resilience training program was relevant and accepted by SWAT team officers and (b assess participants’ physiological stress responses (heart rate, respiration during the resilience training sessions to note if there were improvements in stress responding over time. Our findings revealed that participants were able to significantly reduce their average heart rate and improve their ability to engage in controlled respiration (i.e., breathing during simulated critical incidents over the course of the 5-day training. Improvements in stress responding were observed even when the critical incident scenarios became more graphic. Results suggest that an intervention to reduce stress responses of SWAT officers to critical incident scenarios works in a simulated training setting. Translation of these findings to real-world occupational hazards is a recommended next step.

  14. Making Faces - State-Space Models Applied to Multi-Modal Signal Processing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lehn-Schiøler, Tue


    The two main focus areas of this thesis are State-Space Models and multi modal signal processing. The general State-Space Model is investigated and an addition to the class of sequential sampling methods is proposed. This new algorithm is denoted as the Parzen Particle Filter. Furthermore...... optimizer can be applied to speed up convergence. The linear version of the State-Space Model, the Kalman Filter, is applied to multi modal signal processing. It is demonstrated how a State-Space Model can be used to map from speech to lip movements. Besides the State-Space Model and the multi modal...

  15. Dynamical properties of the Penna aging model applied to the population of wolves (United States)

    Makowiec, Danuta


    The parameters of th Penna bit-string model of aging of biological systems are systematically tested to better understand the model itself as well as the results arising from applying this model to studies of the development of the stationary population of Alaska wolves.

  16. "Analyze, Acquire, Apply, and Write" as a New Learning Model in Science (United States)

    Choe, Jeong V.


    I have developed a new teaching and learning model called AAAW, which stand for Analyze, Acquire, Apply and Write. This model grows from action research and unique experience in teaching a biochemistry course to high school students who are talented in math and science. In this model, students first "Analyze" lab data to generate…

  17. Evaluation of MM5 model resolution when applied to prediction of national fire danger rating indexes (United States)

    Jeanne L. Hoadley; Miriam L. Rorig; Larry Bradshaw; Sue A. Ferguson; Kenneth J. Westrick; Scott L. Goodrick; Paul Werth


    Weather predictions from the MM5 mesoscale model were used to compute gridded predictions of National Fire Danger Rating System (NFDRS) indexes. The model output was applied to a case study of the 2000 fire season in Northern Idaho and Western Montana to simulate an extreme event. To determine the preferred resolution for automating NFD RS predictions, model...

  18. Temporal-spatial distribution of non-point source pollution in a drinking water source reservoir watershed based on SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Wang


    Full Text Available The conservation of drinking water source reservoirs has a close relationship between regional economic development and people’s livelihood. Research on the non-point pollution characteristics in its watershed is crucial for reservoir security. Tang Pu Reservoir watershed was selected as the study area. The non-point pollution model of Tang Pu Reservoir was established based on the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool model. The model was adjusted to analyse the temporal-spatial distribution patterns of total nitrogen (TN and total phosphorus (TP. The results showed that the loss of TN and TP in the reservoir watershed were related to precipitation in flood season. And the annual changes showed an "M" shape. It was found that the contribution of loss of TN and TP accounted for 84.5% and 85.3% in high flow years, and for 70.3% and 69.7% in low flow years, respectively. The contributions in normal flow years were 62.9% and 63.3%, respectively. The TN and TP mainly arise from Wangtan town, Gulai town, and Wangyuan town, etc. In addition, it was found that the source of TN and TP showed consistency in space.

  19. Assessment of future climate change impacts on nonpoint source pollution in snowmelt period for a cold area using SWAT. (United States)

    Wang, Yu; Bian, Jianmin; Zhao, Yongsheng; Tang, Jie; Jia, Zhuo


    The source area of Liao River is a typical cold region in northeastern China, which experiences serious problems with agricultural nonpoint source pollution (NPS), it is important to understand future climate change impacts on NPS in the watershed. This issue has been investigated by coupling semi distributed hydrological model (SWAT), statistical downscaling model (SDSM) and global circulation model (GCMs). The results show that annual average temperature would rise by 2.1 °C (1.3 °C) in the 2080 s under scenario RCP8.5 (RCP4.5), and annual precipitation would increase by 67 mm (33 mm). The change in winter temperature and precipitation is most significant with an increase by 0.23 °C/10a (0.17 °C/10a) and 1.94 mm/10a (2.78 mm/10a). The future streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease by 19.05% (10.59%), 12.27% (8.81%) and 10.63% (6.11%), respectively. Monthly average streamflow, TN and TP loads would decrease from March to November, and increase from December to February. This is because the increased precipitation and temperature in winter, which made the spring snowpack melting earlier. These study indicate the trends of nonpoint source pollution during the snowmelt period under climate change conditions, accordingly adaptation measures will be necessary.

  20. Applying Statistical Models and Parametric Distance Measures for Music Similarity Search (United States)

    Lukashevich, Hanna; Dittmar, Christian; Bastuck, Christoph

    Automatic deriving of similarity relations between music pieces is an inherent field of music information retrieval research. Due to the nearly unrestricted amount of musical data, the real-world similarity search algorithms have to be highly efficient and scalable. The possible solution is to represent each music excerpt with a statistical model (ex. Gaussian mixture model) and thus to reduce the computational costs by applying the parametric distance measures between the models. In this paper we discuss the combinations of applying different parametric modelling techniques and distance measures and weigh the benefits of each one against the others.

  1. Automated estimation of the truncation of room impulse response by applying a nonlinear decay model. (United States)

    Janković, Marko; Ćirić, Dejan G; Pantić, Aleksandar


    Noise represents one of the most significant disturbances in measured room impulse responses (RIRs), and it has a potentially large impact on evaluation of the decay parameters. In order to reduce noise effects, various methods have been applied, including truncation of an RIR. In this paper, a procedure for the response truncation based on a model of RIR (nonlinear decay model) is presented. The model is represented by an exponential decay plus stationary noise. Unknown parameters of the model are calculated by an optimization that minimizes the difference between the curve generated by the model and the target one of the response to be truncated. Different curves can be applied in the optimization-absolute value of the RIR, logarithmic decay curve, and Schroeder curve obtained by the backward integration of the RIR. The proposed procedure is tested on various synthesized and measured impulse responses. It is compared with the procedure taken from the literature, often applied in practice.

  2. Applying MDA to SDR for Space to Model Real-time Issues (United States)

    Blaser, Tammy M.


    NASA space communications systems have the challenge of designing SDRs with highly-constrained Size, Weight and Power (SWaP) resources. A study is being conducted to assess the effectiveness of applying the MDA Platform-Independent Model (PIM) and one or more Platform-Specific Models (PSM) specifically to address NASA space domain real-time issues. This paper will summarize our experiences with applying MDA to SDR for Space to model real-time issues. Real-time issues to be examined, measured, and analyzed are: meeting waveform timing requirements and efficiently applying Real-time Operating System (RTOS) scheduling algorithms, applying safety control measures, and SWaP verification. Real-time waveform algorithms benchmarked with the worst case environment conditions under the heaviest workload will drive the SDR for Space real-time PSM design.

  3. Future integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment considering land use / land cover and climate change using DRASTIC and SWAT (United States)

    Jang, W.; Engel, B.; Chaubey, I.


    Climate change causes significant changes to temperature regimes and precipitation patterns across the world. Such alterations in climate pose serious risks for not only inland freshwater ecosystems but also groundwater systems, and may adversely affect numerous critical services they provide to humans. All groundwater results from precipitation, and precipitation is affected by climate change. Climate change is also influenced by land use / land cover (LULC) change and vice versa. According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) reports, climate change is caused by global warming which is generated by the increase of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the atmosphere. LULC change is a major driving factor causing an increase in GHG emissions. LULC change data (years 2006-2100) will be produced by the Land Transformation Model (LTM) which simulates spatial patterns of LULC change over time. MIROC5 (years 2006-2100) will be obtained considering GCMs and ensemble characteristics such as resolution and trend of temperature and precipitation which is a consistency check with observed data from local weather stations and historical data from GCMs output data. Thus, MIROC5 will be used to account for future climate change scenarios and relationship between future climate change and alteration of groundwater quality in this study. For efficient groundwater resources management, integrated aquifer vulnerability assessments (= intrinsic vulnerability + hazard potential assessment) are required. DRASTIC will be used to evaluate intrinsic vulnerability, and aquifer hazard potential will be evaluated by Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) which can simulate pollution potential from surface and transport properties of contaminants. Thus, for effective integrated aquifer vulnerability assessment for LULC and climate change in the Midwestern United States, future projected LULC and climate data from the LTM and GCMs will be incorporated with DRASTIC and SWAT. It is

  4. Development and application of the modelling system J2000-S for the EU-water framework directive

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Fink


    Full Text Available The scientific sound definition of measures to achieve the goals of the EU water framework directive (WFD acquires spatially distributed analyses of the water and substance dynamics in meso- to macro-scale catchments. For this purpose, modelling tools or systems are needed which are robust and fast enough to be applied on such scales, but which are also able to simulate the impact of changes on single fields or small areas of a specific land use in the catchment.

    To face these challenges, we combined the fully-distributed hydrological model J2000 with the nitrogen transport routines of the Soil Water Assessment Tool SWAT model, which are normally applied in a semi-distributive approach. With this combination, we could extend the quantitative focus of J2000 with qualitative processes and could overcome the semi-distributed limitation of SWAT. For the implementation and combination of the components, we used the Jena Adaptable Modelling System JAMS (Kralisch and Krause, 2006 which helped tremendously in the relatively rapid and easy development of the new resultant model J2000-S (J2000-Substance.

    The modelling system was applied in the upper Gera watershed, located in Thuringia, Germany. The catchment has an area of 844 km2 and includes three of the typical landscape forms of Thuringia. The application showed, that the new modelling system was able to reproduce the daily hydrological as well as the nitrogen dynamics with a sufficient quality. The paper will describe the results of the new model and compare them with the results obtained with the original semi-distributed application of SWAT.

  5. To Be or Not to Be an Entrepreneur: Applying a Normative Model to Career Decisions (United States)

    Callanan, Gerard A.; Zimmerman, Monica


    Reflecting the need for a better and broader understanding of the factors influencing the choices to enter into or exit an entrepreneurial career, this article applies a structured, normative model of career management to the career decision-making of entrepreneurs. The application of a structured model can assist career counselors, college career…

  6. An improved k-ε model applied to a wind turbine wake in atmospheric turbulence

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Laan, van der, Paul Maarten; Sørensen, Niels N.; Réthoré, Pierre-Elouan


    An improved k-ε turbulence model is developed and applied to a single wind turbine wake in a neutral atmospheric boundary layer using a Reynolds averaged Navier–Stokes solver. The proposed model includes a flow-dependent Cμ that is sensitive to high velocity gradients, e.g., at the edge of a wind...

  7. A Dyadic Approach: Applying a Developmental-Conceptual Model to Couples Coping with Chronic Illness (United States)

    Checton, Maria G.; Magsamen-Conrad, Kate; Venetis, Maria K.; Greene, Kathryn


    The purpose of the present study was to apply Berg and Upchurch's developmental-conceptual model toward a better understanding of how couples cope with chronic illness. Specifically, a model was hypothesized in which proximal factors (relational quality), dyadic appraisal (illness interference), and dyadic coping (partner support) influence…

  8. How High Is the Tramping Track? Mathematising and Applying in a Calculus Model-Eliciting Activity (United States)

    Yoon, Caroline; Dreyfus, Tommy; Thomas, Michael O. J.


    Two complementary processes involved in mathematical modelling are mathematising a realistic situation and applying a mathematical technique to a given realistic situation. We present and analyse work from two undergraduate students and two secondary school teachers who engaged in both processes during a mathematical modelling task that required…

  9. Divorce and Child Behavior Problems: Applying Latent Change Score Models to Life Event Data (United States)

    Malone, Patrick S.; Lansford, Jennifer E.; Castellino, Domini R.; Berlin, Lisa J.; Dodge, Kenneth A.; Bates, John E.; Pettit, Gregory S.


    Effects of parents' divorce on children's adjustment have been studied extensively. This article applies new advances in trajectory modeling to the problem of disentangling the effects of divorce on children's adjustment from related factors such as the child's age at the time of divorce and the child's gender. Latent change score models were used…

  10. A generalised chemical precipitation modelling approach in wastewater treatment applied to calcite

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mbamba, Christian Kazadi; Batstone, Damien J.; Flores Alsina, Xavier


    , the present study aims to identify a broadly applicable precipitation modelling approach. The study uses two experimental platforms applied to calcite precipitating from synthetic aqueous solutions to identify and validate the model approach. Firstly, dynamic pH titration tests are performed to define...

  11. Applying a Conceptual Model in Sport Sector Work- Integrated Learning Contexts (United States)

    Agnew, Deborah; Pill, Shane; Orrell, Janice


    This paper applies a conceptual model for work-integrated learning (WIL) in a multidisciplinary sports degree program. Two examples of WIL in sport will be used to illustrate how the conceptual WIL model is being operationalized. The implications for practice are that curriculum design must recognize a highly flexible approach to the nature of…

  12. An experimental test of two mathematical models applied to the size-weight illusion. (United States)

    Sarris, V; Heineken, E


    Two quantitative models, which make different quantitative predictions for the amount of the size-weight illusion, were tested according to the psychophysical methods employed by the respective authors (magnitude estimation versus category ratings). Both models with their corresponding method were supported. This causes uncertainty over Anderson's chaim that the validity of both a model and the applied scale used is sufficiently test by the socalled joint testing procedure.

  13. Applying circular economy innovation theory in business process modeling and analysis (United States)

    Popa, V.; Popa, L.


    The overall aim of this paper is to develop a new conceptual framework for business process modeling and analysis using circular economy innovative theory as a source for business knowledge management. The last part of the paper presents an author’s proposed basic structure for a new business models applying circular economy innovation theories. For people working on new innovative business models in the field of the circular economy this paper provides new ideas for clustering their concepts.

  14. OpenMP parallelization of a gridded SWAT (SWATG) (United States)

    Zhang, Ying; Hou, Jinliang; Cao, Yongpan; Gu, Juan; Huang, Chunlin


    Large-scale, long-term and high spatial resolution simulation is a common issue in environmental modeling. A Gridded Hydrologic Response Unit (HRU)-based Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWATG) that integrates grid modeling scheme with different spatial representations also presents such problems. The time-consuming problem affects applications of very high resolution large-scale watershed modeling. The OpenMP (Open Multi-Processing) parallel application interface is integrated with SWATG (called SWATGP) to accelerate grid modeling based on the HRU level. Such parallel implementation takes better advantage of the computational power of a shared memory computer system. We conducted two experiments at multiple temporal and spatial scales of hydrological modeling using SWATG and SWATGP on a high-end server. At 500-m resolution, SWATGP was found to be up to nine times faster than SWATG in modeling over a roughly 2000 km2 watershed with 1 CPU and a 15 thread configuration. The study results demonstrate that parallel models save considerable time relative to traditional sequential simulation runs. Parallel computations of environmental models are beneficial for model applications, especially at large spatial and temporal scales and at high resolutions. The proposed SWATGP model is thus a promising tool for large-scale and high-resolution water resources research and management in addition to offering data fusion and model coupling ability.

  15. Statistical procedures for evaluating daily and monthly hydrologic model predictions (United States)

    Coffey, M.E.; Workman, S.R.; Taraba, J.L.; Fogle, A.W.


    The overall study objective was to evaluate the applicability of different qualitative and quantitative methods for comparing daily and monthly SWAT computer model hydrologic streamflow predictions to observed data, and to recommend statistical methods for use in future model evaluations. Statistical methods were tested using daily streamflows and monthly equivalent runoff depths. The statistical techniques included linear regression, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, nonparametric tests, t-test, objective functions, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation. None of the methods specifically applied to the non-normal distribution and dependence between data points for the daily predicted and observed data. Of the tested methods, median objective functions, sign test, autocorrelation, and cross-correlation were most applicable for the daily data. The robust coefficient of determination (CD*) and robust modeling efficiency (EF*) objective functions were the preferred methods for daily model results due to the ease of comparing these values with a fixed ideal reference value of one. Predicted and observed monthly totals were more normally distributed, and there was less dependence between individual monthly totals than was observed for the corresponding predicted and observed daily values. More statistical methods were available for comparing SWAT model-predicted and observed monthly totals. The 1995 monthly SWAT model predictions and observed data had a regression Rr2 of 0.70, a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.41, and the t-test failed to reject the equal data means hypothesis. The Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient and the R r2 coefficient were the preferred methods for monthly results due to the ability to compare these coefficients to a set ideal value of one.

  16. Recent progress and modern challenges in applied mathematics, modeling and computational science

    CERN Document Server

    Makarov, Roman; Belair, Jacques


    This volume is an excellent resource for professionals in various areas of applications of mathematics, modeling, and computational science. It focuses on recent progress and modern challenges in these areas. The volume provides a balance between fundamental theoretical and applied developments, emphasizing the interdisciplinary nature of modern trends and detailing state-of-the-art achievements in Applied Mathematics, Modeling, and Computational Science.  The chapters have been authored by international experts in their respective fields, making this book ideal for researchers in academia, practitioners, and graduate students. It can also serve as a reference in the diverse selected areas of applied mathematics, modelling, and computational sciences, and is ideal for interdisciplinary collaborations.

  17. Developing empirical monthly groundwater recharge equations based on modeling and remote sensing data - Modeling future groundwater recharge to predict potential climate change impacts (United States)

    Gemitzi, Alexandra; Ajami, Hoori; Richnow, Hans-Hermann


    Groundwater recharge is one of main components of the water budget that is difficult to quantify due to complexity of recharge processes and limited observations. In the present work a simple regression equation for monthly groundwater recharge estimation is developed by relating simulated recharge from a calibrated Soil and Water Assessment tool (SWAT) model to effective precipitation. Monthly groundwater recharge and actual evapotranspiration (AET) were computed by applying a calibrated (SWAT) model for a ten year period (2005-2015) in Vosvozis river basin in NE Greece. SWAT actual evapotranspiration (AET) results were compared to remotely sensed AET values from the MODerate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), indicating the integrity of the modeling process. Water isotopes of 2H and 18O, originally presented herein, were used to infer recharge resources in the basin and provided additional evidence of the applicability of the developed formula. Results showed that the developed recharge estimation method can be effectively applied using MODIS evapotranspiration data, without having to adhere to numerical modeling which is many times constrained by the lack of available data especially in poorly gauged basins. Future trends of groundwater recharge up to 2100 using an ensemble of five downscaled climate change projections indicated that annual recharge will increase up to the middle of the present century and gradually decrease thereafter. However, the predicted magnitude is highly variable depending on the Global Climate Model (GCM) used. While winter recharge will likely increase in the future, summer recharge is expected to decrease as a result of temperature rise in the future.

  18. A two-fluid model for vertical flow applied to CO2 injection wells

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Linga, Gaute; Lund, Halvor


    the well, including tubing, packer fluid, casing, cement or drilling mud, and rock formation. This enables prediction of the temperature in the well fluid and in each layer of the well. The model is applied to sudden shut-in and blowout cases of a CO2 injection well, where we employ the highly accurate...... to thermal stresses and subsequent loss of well integrity, and it is therefore crucial to employ models that can predict this accurately. In this work, we present a model for vertical well flow that includes both two-phase flow and heat conduction. The flow is described by a two-fluid model, where mass...

  19. Applying model analysis to a resource-based analysis of the Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Trevor I. Smith


    Full Text Available Previously, we analyzed the Force and Motion Conceptual Evaluation in terms of a resources-based model that allows for clustering of questions so as to provide useful information on how students correctly or incorrectly reason about physics. In this paper, we apply model analysis to show that the associated model plots provide more information regarding the results of investigations using these question clusters than normalized gain graphs. We provide examples from two different institutions to show how the use of model analysis with our redefined clusters can provide previously hidden insight into the effectiveness of instruction.

  20. Applying Mathematical Optimization Methods to an ACT-R Instance-Based Learning Model. (United States)

    Said, Nadia; Engelhart, Michael; Kirches, Christian; Körkel, Stefan; Holt, Daniel V


    Computational models of cognition provide an interface to connect advanced mathematical tools and methods to empirically supported theories of behavior in psychology, cognitive science, and neuroscience. In this article, we consider a computational model of instance-based learning, implemented in the ACT-R cognitive architecture. We propose an approach for obtaining mathematical reformulations of such cognitive models that improve their computational tractability. For the well-established Sugar Factory dynamic decision making task, we conduct a simulation study to analyze central model parameters. We show how mathematical optimization techniques can be applied to efficiently identify optimal parameter values with respect to different optimization goals. Beyond these methodological contributions, our analysis reveals the sensitivity of this particular task with respect to initial settings and yields new insights into how average human performance deviates from potential optimal performance. We conclude by discussing possible extensions of our approach as well as future steps towards applying more powerful derivative-based optimization methods.

  1. The LIFE Model: A Meta-Theoretical Conceptual Map for Applied Positive Psychology


    Lomas, Tim; Hefferon, Kate; Ivtzan, Itai


    Since its emergence in 1998, positive psychology has flourished. Among its successes is the burgeoning field of applied positive psychology (APP), involving interventions to promote wellbeing. However, the remit of APP is currently unclear. As such, we offer a meta-theoretical conceptual map delineating the terrain that APP might conceivably cover, namely, the Layered Integrated Framework Example model. The model is based on Wilber’s (J Conscious Stud 4(1):71–92, 1997) Integral Framework, whi...

  2. Leaders Are the Network: Applying the Kotter Model in Shaping Future Information Systems (United States)


    Comunications and Information Systems ,” New York, NY: Springer Publishing, 1997, 183-193. Findley, Mike and Luck, Gary, “Information Overload...1 LEADERS ARE THE NETWORK: APPLYING THE KOTTER MODEL IN SHAPING FUTURE INFORMATION SYSTEMS Submitted...Model in Shaping Future Information Systems 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT NUMBER 6. AUTHOR(S) 5d. PROJECT NUMBER 5e

  3. Divorce and Child Behavior Problems: Applying Latent Change Score Models to Life Event Data


    Malone, Patrick S.; Lansford, Jennifer E.; Castellino, Domini R.; Berlin, Lisa J.; Dodge, Kenneth A.; Bates, John E.; Pettit, Gregory S.


    Effects of parents' divorce on children's adjustment have been studied extensively. This article applies new advances in trajectory modeling to the problem of disentangling the effects of divorce on children's adjustment from related factors such as the child's age at the time of divorce and the child's gender. Latent change score models were used to examine trajectories of externalizing behavior problems in relation to children's experience of their parents' divorce. Participants included 35...

  4. Integrative systems modeling and multi-objective optimization (United States)

    This presentation presents a number of algorithms, tools, and methods for utilizing multi-objective optimization within integrated systems modeling frameworks. We first present innovative methods using a genetic algorithm to optimally calibrate the VELMA and SWAT ecohydrological ...

  5. Modeling the current distribution in HTS tapes with transport current and applied magnetic field

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yazawa, T.; Yazawa, Takashi; Rabbers, J.J.; Chevtchenko, O.A.; ten Haken, Bernard; ten Kate, Herman H.J.; Maeda, Hideaki


    A numerical model is developed for the current distribution in a high temperature superconducting (HTS) tape, (Bi,Pb)2Sr2 Ca2Cu3Ox-Ag, subjected to a combination of a transport current and an applied magnetic field. This analysis is based on a two-dimensional formulation of Maxwell's equations in

  6. Lovaas Model of Applied Behavior Analysis. What Works Clearinghouse Intervention Report (United States)

    What Works Clearinghouse, 2010


    The "Lovaas Model of Applied Behavior Analysis" is a type of behavioral therapy that initially focuses on discrete trials: brief periods of one-on-one instruction, during which a teacher cues a behavior, prompts the appropriate response, and provides reinforcement to the child. Children in the program receive an average of 35 to 40 hours…

  7. Problems and advantages of applying the e-learning model to the teaching of English


    Shaparenko, А.; Golikova, А.


    In this article we mention some potential and noted problems and advantages of applying the e-learning model to the teaching of English. In the area of foreign language teaching a lot has been done, but there are constant attempts for new solutions. Another option for e-learning is a hybrid course.

  8. Flipped Classroom Adapted to the ARCS Model of Motivation and Applied to a Physics Course (United States)

    Asiksoy, Gülsüm; Özdamli, Fezile


    This study aims to determine the effect on the achievement, motivation and self-sufficiency of students of the flipped classroom approach adapted to Keller's ARCS (Attention, Relevance, Confidence and Satisfaction) motivation model and applied to a physics course. The study involved 66 students divided into two classes of a physics course. The…

  9. Applying the cube model to pediatric psychology: development of research competency skills at the doctoral level. (United States)

    Madan-Swain, Avi; Hankins, Shirley L; Gilliam, Margaux Barnes; Ross, Kelly; Reynolds, Nina; Milby, Jesse; Schwebel, David C


    This article considers the development of research competencies in professional psychology and how that movement might be applied to training in pediatric psychology. The field of pediatric psychology has a short but rich history, and experts have identified critical competencies. However, pediatric psychology has not yet detailed a set of research-based competencies. This article initially reviews the competency initiative in professional psychology, including the cube model as it relates to research training. Next, we review and adapt the knowledge-based/foundational and applied/functional research competencies proposed by health psychology into a cube model for pediatric psychology. We focus especially on graduate-level training but allude to its application throughout professional development. We present the cube model as it is currently being applied to the development of a systematic research competency evaluation for graduate training at our medical/clinical psychology doctoral program at the University of Alabama at Birmingham. Based on the review and synthesis of the literature on research competency in professional psychology we propose future initiatives to develop these competencies for the field of pediatric psychology. The cube model can be successfully applied to the development of research training competencies in pediatric psychology. Future research should address the development, implementation, and assessment of the research competencies for training and career development of future pediatric psychologists.

  10. Applying footprint models to investigate MO-dissimilarity over heterogeneous areas

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boer, van de A.; Graf, A.; Moene, A.F.; Schüttemeyer, D.


    Monin Obukhov Similarity Theory (MOST) is one of the cornerstones of surface layer meteorology and as such it is widely applied in models and for data analysis. One major disadvantage of using MOST for describing land-atmosphere interactions is that all turbulence properties are described as a

  11. An Investigation of Employees' Use of E-Learning Systems: Applying the Technology Acceptance Model (United States)

    Lee, Yi-Hsuan; Hsieh, Yi-Chuan; Chen, Yen-Hsun


    The purpose of this study is to apply the technology acceptance model to examine the employees' attitudes and acceptance of electronic learning (e-learning) systems in organisations. This study examines four factors (organisational support, computer self-efficacy, prior experience and task equivocality) that are believed to influence employees'…

  12. Designing and Applying Web Assisted Activities to Be Used in Flipped Classroom Model (United States)

    Çetinkaya, Murat


    The purpose of this study is to develop personalized web assisted activities for the flipped classroom model applied in the "Human and Environment Interactions" unit of science lesson and to research its effect on students' achievement. The study was conducted with the 74 participation of 7th grade science lesson students within a period…

  13. Applying the Transtheoretical Model to Reality Television: The Biggest Loser Case Study (United States)

    Barry, Adam E.; Piazza-Gardner, Anna K.


    This teaching idea presents a heuristic example using reality television as a tool for applying health behavior theory. It utilizes The Biggest Loser (TBL) to provide "real world" cases depicting how individuals progress through/experience the Transtheoretical Model (TTM). Observing TBL contestants provides students practice grounding…

  14. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Spanjersberg, M.Q.I.; Kruizinga, A.G.; Rennen, M.A.J.; Houben, G.F.


    In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on

  15. Uncertainty from model calibration: applying a new method to transport energy demand modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Ruijven, B.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304834521; van der Sluijs, J.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073427489; van Vuuren, D.P.; Janssen, Peter; Heuberger, P.S.C.; de Vries, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/068361599


    Uncertainties in energy demand modelling originate from both limited understanding of the real-world system and a lack of data for model development, calibration and validation. These uncertainties allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a

  16. Uncertainty from Model Calibration : Applying a New Method to Transport Energy Demand Modelling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ruijven, B.; Van der Sluijs, J.P.; Van Vuuren, D.P.; Janssen, P.; Heuberger, P.S.C.; De Vries, B.


    Uncertainties in energy demand modelling originate from both limited understanding of the real-world system and a lack of data for model development, calibration and validation. These uncertainties allow for the development of different models, but also leave room for different calibrations of a

  17. Accelerating quality improvement within your organization: Applying the Model for Improvement. (United States)

    Crowl, Ashley; Sharma, Anita; Sorge, Lindsay; Sorensen, Todd


    To discuss the fundamentals of the Model for Improvement and how the model can be applied to quality improvement activities associated with medication use, including understanding the three essential questions that guide quality improvement, applying a process for actively testing change within an organization, and measuring the success of these changes on care delivery. PubMed from 1990 through April 2014 using the search terms quality improvement, process improvement, hospitals, and primary care. At the authors' discretion, studies were selected based on their relevance in demonstrating the quality improvement process and tests of change within an organization. Organizations are continuously seeking to enhance quality in patient care services, and much of this work focuses on improving care delivery processes. Yet change in these systems is often slow, which can lead to frustration or apathy among frontline practitioners. Adopting and applying the Model for Improvement as a core strategy for quality improvement efforts can accelerate the process. While the model is frequently well known in hospitals and primary care settings, it is not always familiar to pharmacists. In addition, while some organizations may be familiar with the "plan, do, study, act" (PDSA) cycles-one element of the Model for Improvement-many do not apply it effectively. The goal of the model is to combine a continuous process of small tests of change (PDSA cycles) within an overarching aim with a longitudinal measurement process. This process differs from other forms of improvement work that plan and implement large-scale change over an extended period, followed by months of data collection. In this scenario it may take months or years to determine whether an intervention will have a positive impact. By following the Model for Improvement, frontline practitioners and their organizational leaders quickly identify strategies that make a positive difference and result in a greater degree of

  18. Modelling the effects of the sterile insect technique applied to Eldana saccharina Walker in sugarcane

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L Potgieter


    Full Text Available A mathematical model is formulated for the population dynamics of an Eldana saccharina Walker infestation of sugarcane under the influence of partially sterile released insects. The model describes the population growth of and interaction between normal and sterile E.saccharina moths in a temporally variable, but spatially homogeneous environment. The model consists of a deterministic system of difference equations subject to strictly positive initial data. The primary objective of this model is to determine suitable parameters in terms of which the above population growth and interaction may be quantified and according to which E.saccharina infestation levels and the associated sugarcane damage may be measured. Although many models have been formulated in the past describing the sterile insect technique, few of these models describe the technique for Lepidopteran species with more than one life stage and where F1-sterility is relevant. In addition, none of these models consider the technique when fully sterile females and partially sterile males are being released. The model formulated is also the first to describe the technique applied specifically to E.saccharina, and to consider the economic viability of applying the technique to this species. Pertinent decision support is provided to farm managers in terms of the best timing for releases, release ratios and release frequencies.

  19. A simple model for fatigue crack growth in concrete applied to a hinge beam model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skar, Asmus; Poulsen, Peter Noe; Olesen, John Forbes


    In concrete structures, fatigue is one of the major causes of material deterioration. Repeated loads result in formation of cracks. Propagation of these cracks cause internal progressive damage within the concrete material which ultimately leads to failure. This paper presents a simplified general...... concept for non-linear analysis of concrete subjected to cyclic loading. The model is based on the fracture mechanics concepts of the fictitious crack model, considering a fiber of concrete material, and a simple energy based approach for estimating the bridging stress under cyclic loading. Further......, the uni-axial fiber response is incorporated in a numerical hinge model for beam analysis. Finally, the hinge model is implemented into a finite element beam element on a constitutive level. The proposed model is compared to experimental results on both fiber-and beam level. The proposed model shows good...

  20. Analytical Compliance Modeling of Serial Flexure-Based Compliant Mechanism Under Arbitrary Applied Load (United States)

    Wang, Li-Ping; Jiang, Yao; Li, Tie-Min


    Analytical compliance model is vital to the flexure- based compliant mechanism in its mechanical design and motion control. The matrix is a common and effective approach in the compliance modeling while it is not well developed for the closed-loop serial and parallel compliant mechanisms and is not applicable to the situation when the external loads are applied on the flexure members. Concise and explicit analytical compliance models of the serial flexure-based compliant mechanisms under arbitrary loads are derived by using the matrix method. An equivalent method is proposed to deal with the situation when the external loads are applied on the flexure members. The external loads are transformed to concentrated forces applied on the rigid links, which satisfy the equations of static equilibrium and also guarantee that the deformations at the displacement output point remain unchanged. Then the matrix method can be still adopted for the compliance analysis of the compliant mechanism. Finally, several specific examples and an experimental test are given to verify the effectiveness of the compliance models and the force equivalent method. The research enriches the matrix method and provides concise analytical compliance models for the serial compliant mechanism.

  1. Comparison among Models to Estimate the Shielding Effectiveness Applied to Conductive Textiles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alberto Lopez


    Full Text Available The purpose of this paper is to present a comparison among two models and its measurement to calculate the shielding effectiveness of electromagnetic barriers, applying it to conductive textiles. Each one, models a conductive textile as either a (1 wire mesh screen or (2 compact material. Therefore, the objective is to perform an analysis of the models in order to determine which one is a better approximation for electromagnetic shielding fabrics. In order to provide results for the comparison, the shielding effectiveness of the sample has been measured by means of the standard ASTM D4935-99.

  2. Dynamic plant uptake model applied for drip irrigation of an insecticide to pepper fruit plants

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Legind, Charlotte Nielsen; Kennedy, C. M.; Rein, Arno


    irrigation, its application for a soil-applied insecticide and a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. RESULTS: The model predicted the measured increase and decline of residues following two soil applications of an insecticide to peppers, with an absolute error between model and measurement ranging...... from 0.002 to 0.034 mg kg fw—1. Maximum measured concentrations in pepper fruit were approximately 0.22 mg kg fw—1. Temperature was the most sensitive component for predicting the peak and final concentration in pepper fruit, through its influence on soil and plant degradation rates...

  3. A software complex intended for constructing applied models and meta-models on the basis of mathematical programming principles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Михаил Юрьевич Чернышов


    Full Text Available A software complex (SC elaborated by the authors on the basis of the language LMPL and representing a software tool intended for synthesis of applied software models and meta-models constructed on the basis of mathematical programming (MP principles is described. LMPL provides for an explicit form of declarative representation of MP-models, presumes automatic constructing and transformation of models and the capability of adding external software packages. The following software versions of the SC have been implemented: 1 a SC intended for representing the process of choosing an optimal hydroelectric power plant model (on the principles of meta-modeling and 2 a SC intended for representing the logic-sense relations between the models of a set of discourse formations in the discourse meta-model.

  4. [Applying temporally-adjusted land use regression models to estimate ambient air pollution exposure during pregnancy]. (United States)

    Zhang, Y J; Xue, F X; Bai, Z P


    The impact of maternal air pollution exposure on offspring health has received much attention. Precise and feasible exposure estimation is particularly important for clarifying exposure-response relationships and reducing heterogeneity among studies. Temporally-adjusted land use regression (LUR) models are exposure assessment methods developed in recent years that have the advantage of having high spatial-temporal resolution. Studies on the health effects of outdoor air pollution exposure during pregnancy have been increasingly carried out using this model. In China, research applying LUR models was done mostly at the model construction stage, and findings from related epidemiological studies were rarely reported. In this paper, the sources of heterogeneity and research progress of meta-analysis research on the associations between air pollution and adverse pregnancy outcomes were analyzed. The methods of the characteristics of temporally-adjusted LUR models were introduced. The current epidemiological studies on adverse pregnancy outcomes that applied this model were systematically summarized. Recommendations for the development and application of LUR models in China are presented. This will encourage the implementation of more valid exposure predictions during pregnancy in large-scale epidemiological studies on the health effects of air pollution in China.

  5. Addressing dependability by applying an approach for model-based risk assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gran, Bjorn Axel [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail:; Fredriksen, Rune [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail:; Thunem, Atoosa P.-J. [Institutt for energiteknikk, OECD Halden Reactor Project, NO-1751 Halden (Norway)]. E-mail:


    This paper describes how an approach for model-based risk assessment (MBRA) can be applied for addressing different dependability factors in a critical application. Dependability factors, such as availability, reliability, safety and security, are important when assessing the dependability degree of total systems involving digital instrumentation and control (I and C) sub-systems. In order to identify risk sources their roles with regard to intentional system aspects such as system functions, component behaviours and intercommunications must be clarified. Traditional risk assessment is based on fault or risk models of the system. In contrast to this, MBRA utilizes success-oriented models describing all intended system aspects, including functional, operational and organizational aspects of the target. The EU-funded CORAS project developed a tool-supported methodology for the application of MBRA in security-critical systems. The methodology has been tried out within the telemedicine and e-commerce areas, and provided through a series of seven trials a sound basis for risk assessments. In this paper the results from the CORAS project are presented, and it is discussed how the approach for applying MBRA meets the needs of a risk-informed Man-Technology-Organization (MTO) model, and how methodology can be applied as a part of a trust case development.

  6. Dynamics modeling and vibration analysis of a piezoelectric diaphragm applied in valveless micropump (United States)

    He, Xiuhua; Xu, Wei; Lin, Nan; Uzoejinwa, B. B.; Deng, Zhidan


    This paper presents the dynamical model involved with load of fluid pressure, electric-solid coupling simulation and experimental performance of the piezoelectric diaphragm fabricated and applied in valveless micropump. The model is based on the theory of plate-shell with small deflection, considering the two-layer structure of piezoelectric ceramic and elastic substrate. The high-order non-homogeneous vibration equation of the piezoelectric diaphragm, derived in the course of the study, was solved by being divided into a homogeneous Bessel equation and a non-homogeneous static equation according to the superposition principle. The amplitude of the piezoelectric diaphragm driven by sinusoidal voltage against the load of fluid pressure was obtained from the solution of the vibration equation. Also, finite element simulation of electric-solid coupling between displacement of piezoelectric diaphragm due to an applied voltage and resulting deformation of membrane was considered. The simulation result showed that the maximum deflection of diaphragm is 9.51 μm at a quarter cycle time when applied a peak-to-peak voltage of 150VP-P with a frequency of 90 Hz, and the displacement distribution according to the direction of the radius was demonstrated. Experiments were performed to verify the prediction of the dynamic modeling and the coupling simulation, the experimental data showed a good agreement with the dynamical model and simulation.

  7. The Motivational Knowledge Management Model: proposal to apply it in the library sector

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel López-Fernández


    Full Text Available In professional environments, attention paid to aspects such as supervisory styles, interpersonal relationships and workers eagerness can have a positive impact on employee motivation and, consequently, on their performance and well-being. To achieve this, knowledge management models such as those presented here can be applied. This model generates diagnoses of motivation and recommendations for improvement, both systematically and scientifically. Consequently, it is especially useful for managers and human resource departments. The proposed model can be adapted to different kinds of professional groups, including those in library and documentation services. The suitability, reliability and usefulness of the proposed model have been empirically checked through case studies with 92 students and 166 professionals. The positive results allow us to conclude that the model is effective and useful for assessing and improving motivation.

  8. Predictive Modeling of Influenza Shows the Promise of Applied Evolutionary Biology. (United States)

    Morris, Dylan H; Gostic, Katelyn M; Pompei, Simone; Bedford, Trevor; Łuksza, Marta; Neher, Richard A; Grenfell, Bryan T; Lässig, Michael; McCauley, John W


    Seasonal influenza is controlled through vaccination campaigns. Evolution of influenza virus antigens means that vaccines must be updated to match novel strains, and vaccine effectiveness depends on the ability of scientists to predict nearly a year in advance which influenza variants will dominate in upcoming seasons. In this review, we highlight a promising new surveillance tool: predictive models. Developed through data-sharing and close collaboration between the World Health Organization and academic scientists, these models use surveillance data to make quantitative predictions regarding influenza evolution. Predictive models demonstrate the potential of applied evolutionary biology to improve public health and disease control. We review the state of influenza predictive modeling and discuss next steps and recommendations to ensure that these models deliver upon their considerable biomedical promise. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Positive Mathematical Programming Approaches – Recent Developments in Literature and Applied Modelling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas Heckelei


    Full Text Available This paper reviews and discusses the more recent literature and application of Positive Mathematical Programming in the context of agricultural supply models. Specifically, advances in the empirical foundation of parameter specifications as well as the economic rationalisation of PMP models – both criticized in earlier reviews – are investigated. Moreover, the paper provides an overview on a larger set of models with regular/repeated policy application that apply variants of PMP. Results show that most applications today avoid arbitrary parameter specifications and rely on exogenous information on supply responses to calibrate model parameters. However, only few approaches use multiple observations to estimate parameters, which is likely due to the still considerable technical challenges associated with it. Equally, we found only limited reflection on the behavioral or technological assumptions that could rationalise the PMP model structure while still keeping the model’s advantages.

  10. Modelling of composite concrete block pavement systems applying a cohesive zone model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Skar, Asmus; Poulsen, Peter Noe

    This paper presents a numerical analysis of the fracture behaviour of the cement bound base material in composite concrete block pavement systems, using a cohesive zone model. The functionality of the proposed model is tested on experimental and numerical investigations of beam bending tests....... The pavement is modelled as a simple slab on grade structure and parameters influencing the response, such as analysis technique, geometry and material parameters are studied. Moreover, the analysis is extended to a real scale example, modelling the pavement as a three-layered structure. It is found...... block pavements. It is envisaged that the methodology implemented in this study can be extended and thereby contribute to the ongoing development of rational failure criteria that can replace the empirical formulas currently used in pavement engineering....

  11. A stereovision model applied in bio-micromanipulation system based on stereo light microscope. (United States)

    Wang, Yuezong


    A bio-micromanipulation system is designed for manipulating micro-objects with a length scale of tens or hundreds of microns based on stereo light microscope. The world coordinate reconstruction of points on the surface of micro-objects is an important goal for the micromanipulation. Traditional pinhole camera model is applied widely in macrocomputer vision. However, this model will output bad data with remarkable error if it is directly used to reconstruct three-dimensional world coordinates for stereo light microscope. Therefore, a novel and improved pinhole camera model applied in bio-micromanipulation system is proposed in this article. The new model is composed of binocular-pinhole model and error-correction model. The binocular-pinhole model is used to output the basic world coordinates. The error-correction model is used to correct the errors from the basic world coordinates and outputs the final high-precision world coordinates. The results show that the new model achieves a precision of 0.01 mm in the X direction, 0.01 mm in the Y direction, and 0.015 mm in the Z direction within a maximum reconstruction distance of 4.1 mm in the X direction, 2.9 mm in the Y direction, and 2.25 mm in the Z direction, and that traditional pinhole camera model achieves a lower and unsatisfactory precision of about 0.1 mm. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  12. Test of a trust and confidence model in the applied context of electromagnetic field (EMF) risks. (United States)

    Siegrist, Michael; Earle, Timothy C; Gutscher, Heinz


    Trust is an important factor in risk management. There is little agreement among researchers, however, on how trust in risk management should be studied. Based on a comprehensive review of the trust literature a "dual-mode model of social trust and confidence" is proposed. Trust and confidence are separate but, under some circumstances, interacting sources of cooperation. Trust is based on value similarity, and confidence is based on performance. According to our model, judging similarity between an observer's currently active values and the values attributed to others determines social trust. Thus, the basis for trust is a judgment that the person to be trusted would act as the trusting person would. Interpretation of the other's performance influences confidence. Both social trust and confidence have an impact on people's willingness to cooperate (e.g., accept electromagnetic fields or EMF in the neighborhood). The postulated model was tested in the applied context of EMF risks. Structural equation modeling procedures and data from a random sample of 1,313 Swiss citizens between 18 and 74 years old were used. Results indicated that after minor modifications the model explained the data very well. In the applied context of EMF risks, both trust and confidence had an impact on cooperation. Results suggest that the dual-mode model of social trust and confidence could be used as a common framework in the field of trust and risk management. Practical implications of the results are discussed.

  13. Applying risk and resilience models to predicting the effects of media violence on development. (United States)

    Prot, Sara; Gentile, Douglas A


    Although the effects of media violence on children and adolescents have been studied for over 50 years, they remain controversial. Much of this controversy is driven by a misunderstanding of causality that seeks the cause of atrocities such as school shootings. Luckily, several recent developments in risk and resilience theories offer a way out of this controversy. Four risk and resilience models are described, including the cascade model, dose-response gradients, pathway models, and turning-point models. Each is described and applied to the existing media effects literature. Recommendations for future research are discussed with regard to each model. In addition, we examine current developments in theorizing that stressors have sensitizing versus steeling effects and recent interest in biological and gene by environment interactions. We also discuss several of the cultural aspects that have supported the polarization and misunderstanding of the literature, and argue that applying risk and resilience models to the theories and data offers a more balanced way to understand the subtle effects of media violence on aggression within a multicausal perspective.

  14. Applying trait-based models to achieve functional targets for theory-driven ecological restoration. (United States)

    Laughlin, Daniel C


    Manipulating community assemblages to achieve functional targets is a key component of restoring degraded ecosystems. The response-and-effect trait framework provides a conceptual foundation for translating restoration goals into functional trait targets, but a quantitative framework has been lacking for translating trait targets into assemblages of species that practitioners can actually manipulate. This study describes new trait-based models that can be used to generate ranges of species abundances to test theories about which traits, which trait values and which species assemblages are most effective for achieving functional outcomes. These models are generalisable, flexible tools that can be widely applied across many terrestrial ecosystems. Examples illustrate how the framework generates assemblages of indigenous species to (1) achieve desired community responses by applying the theories of environmental filtering, limiting similarity and competitive hierarchies, or (2) achieve desired effects on ecosystem functions by applying the theories of mass ratios and niche complementarity. Experimental applications of this framework will advance our understanding of how to set functional trait targets to achieve the desired restoration goals. A trait-based framework provides restoration ecology with a robust scaffold on which to apply fundamental ecological theory to maintain resilient and functioning ecosystems in a rapidly changing world. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  15. Mathematical Modeling Applied to Drilling Engineering: An Application of Bourgoyne and Young ROP Model to a Presalt Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Nascimento


    Full Text Available Several mathematical ROP models were developed in the last five decades in the petroleum industry, departing from rather simple but less reliable R-W-N (drilling rate, weight on bit, and rotary speed formulations until the arrival to more comprehensive and complete approaches such as the Bourgoyne and Young ROP model (BYM widely used in the petroleum industry. The paper emphasizes the BYM formulation, how it is applied in terms of ROP modeling, identifies the main drilling parameters driving each subfunction, and introduces how they were developed; the paper is also addressing the normalization factors and modeling coefficients which have significant influence on the model. The present work details three simulations aiming to understand the approach by applying the formulation in a presalt layer and how some modification of the main method may impact the modeling of the fitting process. The simulation runs show that the relative error measures can be seen as the most reliable fitting verification on top of R-squared. Applying normalization factors and by allowing a more wide range of applicable drillability coefficients, the regression could allow better fitting of the simulation to real data from 54% to 73%, which is an improvement of about 20%.

  16. Applying Infinite State Model Checking and Other Analysis Techniques to Tabular Requirements Specifications of Safety-Critical Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bultan, Tevfik; Heitmeyer, Constance


    Although it is most often applied to finite state models, in recent years, symbolic model checking has been extended to infinite state models using symbolic representations that encode infinite sets...

  17. Bang-Bang Control Applied on an HIV-1 within host Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Rahmoun


    Full Text Available Local controllability analysis of an HIV infection model on which three controls are effective is investigated, the optimal control policy to minimize the number of infected cells, the number of free virus and maximize the number of healthy cells for each control separately, then for all controls applied at once is formulated and solved as an optimal bang-bang control problem (command all or nothing. Numerical examples are given to illustrate the obtained results.

  18. A Formal Verification Model for Performance Analysis of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms Applied t o Dynamic Networks


    Shrirang Ambaji KULKARNI; Raghavendra G . RAO


    Routing data packets in a dynamic network is a difficult and important problem in computer networks. As the network is dynamic, it is subject to frequent topology changes and is subject to variable link costs due to congestion and bandwidth. Existing shortest path algorithms fail to converge to better solutions under dynamic network conditions. Reinforcement learning algorithms posses better adaptation techniques in dynamic environments. In this paper we apply model based Q-Routing technique ...

  19. Applying nonlinear MODM model to supply chain management with quantity discount policy under complex fuzzy environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhe Zhang


    Full Text Available Purpose: The aim of this paper is to deal with the supply chain management (SCM with quantity discount policy under the complex fuzzy environment, which is characterized as the bi-fuzzy variables. By taking into account the strategy and the process of decision making, a bi-fuzzy nonlinear multiple objective decision making (MODM model is presented to solve the proposed problem.Design/methodology/approach: The bi-fuzzy variables in the MODM model are transformed into the trapezoidal fuzzy variables by the DMs's degree of optimism ?1 and ?2, which are de-fuzzified by the expected value index subsequently. For solving the complex nonlinear model, a multi-objective adaptive particle swarm optimization algorithm (MO-APSO is designed as the solution method.Findings: The proposed model and algorithm are applied to a typical example of SCM problem to illustrate the effectiveness. Based on the sensitivity analysis of the results, the bi-fuzzy nonlinear MODM SCM model is proved to be sensitive to the possibility level ?1.Practical implications: The study focuses on the SCM under complex fuzzy environment in SCM, which has a great practical significance. Therefore, the bi-fuzzy MODM model and MO-APSO can be further applied in SCM problem with quantity discount policy.Originality/value: The bi-fuzzy variable is employed in the nonlinear MODM model of SCM to characterize the hybrid uncertain environment, and this work is original. In addition, the hybrid crisp approach is proposed to transferred to model to an equivalent crisp one by the DMs's degree of optimism and the expected value index. Since the MODM model consider the bi-fuzzy environment and quantity discount policy, so this paper has a great practical significance.

  20. Models, validation, and applied geochemistry: Issues in science, communication, and philosophy (United States)

    Nordstrom, D. Kirk


    Models have become so fashionable that many scientists and engineers cannot imagine working without them. The predominant use of computer codes to execute model calculations has blurred the distinction between code and model. The recent controversy regarding model validation has brought into question what we mean by a ‘model’ and by ‘validation.’ It has become apparent that the usual meaning of validation may be common in engineering practice and seems useful in legal practice but it is contrary to scientific practice and brings into question our understanding of science and how it can best be applied to such problems as hazardous waste characterization, remediation, and aqueous geochemistry in general. This review summarizes arguments against using the phrase model validation and examines efforts to validate models for high-level radioactive waste management and for permitting and monitoring open-pit mines. Part of the controversy comes from a misunderstanding of ‘prediction’ and the need to distinguish logical from temporal prediction. Another problem stems from the difference in the engineering approach contrasted with the scientific approach. The reductionist influence on the way we approach environmental investigations also limits our ability to model the interconnected nature of reality. Guidelines are proposed to improve our perceptions and proper utilization of models. Use of the word ‘validation’ is strongly discouraged when discussing model reliability.

  1. Applying global sensitivity analysis to the modelling of flow and water quality in sewers. (United States)

    Gamerith, Valentin; Neumann, Marc B; Muschalla, Dirk


    While several approaches for global sensitivity analysis (GSA) have been proposed in literature, only few applications exist in urban drainage modelling. This contribution discusses two GSA methods applied to a sewer flow and sewer water quality model: Standardised Regression Coefficients (SRCs) using Monte-Carlo simulation as well as the Morris Screening method. For selected model variables we evaluate how the sensitivities are influenced by the choice of the rainfall event. The aims are to i) compare both methods concerning the similarity of results and their applicability, ii) discuss the implications for factor fixing (identifying non-influential parameters) and factor prioritisation (identifying important parameters) and iii) rank the important parameters for the investigated model. It was shown that both methods lead to similar results for the hydraulic model. Parameter interactions and non-linearity were identified for the water quality model and the parameter ranking differs between the methods. For the investigated model the results allow a sound choice of output variables and rainfall events in view of detailed uncertainty analysis or model calibration. We advocate the simultaneous use of both methods for a first model assessment as they allow answering both factor fixing and factor prioritisation at low computational cost. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Nonlinear models applied to seed germination of Rhipsalis cereuscula Haw (Cactaceae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Terezinha Aparecida Guedes


    Full Text Available The objective of this analysis was to fit germination data of Rhipsalis cereuscula Haw seeds to the Weibull model with three parameters using Frequentist and Bayesian methods. Five parameterizations were compared using the Bayesian analysis to fit a prior distribution. The parameter estimates from the Frequentist method were similar to the Bayesian responses considering the following non-informative a priori distribution for the parameter vectors: gamma (10³, 10³ in the model M1, normal (0, 106 in the model M2, uniform (0, Lsup in the model M3, exp (μ in the model M4 and Lnormal (μ, 106 in the model M5. However, to achieve the convergence in the models M4 and M5, we applied the μ from the estimates of the Frequentist approach. The best models fitted by the Bayesian method were the M1 and M3. The adequacy of these models was based on the advantages over the Frequentist method such as the reduced computational efforts and the possibility of comparison.

  3. An Integrated Optimization Design Method Based on Surrogate Modeling Applied to Diverging Duct Design (United States)

    Hanan, Lu; Qiushi, Li; Shaobin, Li


    This paper presents an integrated optimization design method in which uniform design, response surface methodology and genetic algorithm are used in combination. In detail, uniform design is used to select the experimental sampling points in the experimental domain and the system performance is evaluated by means of computational fluid dynamics to construct a database. After that, response surface methodology is employed to generate a surrogate mathematical model relating the optimization objective and the design variables. Subsequently, genetic algorithm is adopted and applied to the surrogate model to acquire the optimal solution in the case of satisfying some constraints. The method has been applied to the optimization design of an axisymmetric diverging duct, dealing with three design variables including one qualitative variable and two quantitative variables. The method of modeling and optimization design performs well in improving the duct aerodynamic performance and can be also applied to wider fields of mechanical design and seen as a useful tool for engineering designers, by reducing the design time and computation consumption.

  4. Active lubrication applied to radial gas journal bearings. Part 2: Modelling improvement and experimental validation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pierart, Fabián G.; Santos, Ilmar F.


    Actively-controlled lubrication techniques are applied to radial gas bearings aiming at enhancing one of their most critical drawbacks, their lack of damping. A model-based control design approach is presented using simple feedback control laws, i.e. proportional controllers. The design approach...... by finite element method and the global model is used as control design tool. Active lubrication allows for significant increase in damping factor of the rotor-bearing system. Very good agreement between theory and experiment is obtained, supporting the multi-physic design tool developed....

  5. Applying downscaled global climate model data to a hydrodynamic surface-water and groundwater model (United States)

    Swain, Eric; Stefanova, Lydia; Smith, Thomas


    Precipitation data from Global Climate Models have been downscaled to smaller regions. Adapting this downscaled precipitation data to a coupled hydrodynamic surface-water/groundwater model of southern Florida allows an examination of future conditions and their effect on groundwater levels, inundation patterns, surface-water stage and flows, and salinity. The downscaled rainfall data include the 1996-2001 time series from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting ERA-40 simulation and both the 1996-1999 and 2038-2057 time series from two global climate models: the Community Climate System Model (CCSM) and the Geophysical Fluid Dynamic Laboratory (GFDL). Synthesized surface-water inflow datasets were developed for the 2038-2057 simulations. The resulting hydrologic simulations, with and without a 30-cm sea-level rise, were compared with each other and field data to analyze a range of projected conditions. Simulations predicted generally higher future stage and groundwater levels and surface-water flows, with sea-level rise inducing higher coastal salinities. A coincident rise in sea level, precipitation and surface-water flows resulted in a narrower inland saline/fresh transition zone. The inland areas were affected more by the rainfall difference than the sea-level rise, and the rainfall differences make little difference in coastal inundation, but a larger difference in coastal salinities.

  6. Modelling the Progression of Bird Migration with Conditional Autoregressive Models Applied to Ringing Data (United States)

    Ambrosini, Roberto; Borgoni, Riccardo; Rubolini, Diego; Sicurella, Beatrice; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Bairlein, Franz; Baillie, Stephen R.; Robinson, Robert A.; Clark, Jacquie A.; Spina, Fernando; Saino, Nicola


    Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908–2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area (‘progression of migration’) and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908–1969, 1970–1990, 1991–2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals. PMID:25047331

  7. Modelling the progression of bird migration with conditional autoregressive models applied to ringing data. (United States)

    Ambrosini, Roberto; Borgoni, Riccardo; Rubolini, Diego; Sicurella, Beatrice; Fiedler, Wolfgang; Bairlein, Franz; Baillie, Stephen R; Robinson, Robert A; Clark, Jacquie A; Spina, Fernando; Saino, Nicola


    Migration is a fundamental stage in the life history of several taxa, including birds, and is under strong selective pressure. At present, the only data that may allow for both an assessment of patterns of bird migration and for retrospective analyses of changes in migration timing are the databases of ring recoveries. We used ring recoveries of the Barn Swallow Hirundo rustica collected from 1908-2008 in Europe to model the calendar date at which a given proportion of birds is expected to have reached a given geographical area ('progression of migration') and to investigate the change in timing of migration over the same areas between three time periods (1908-1969, 1970-1990, 1991-2008). The analyses were conducted using binomial conditional autoregressive (CAR) mixed models. We first concentrated on data from the British Isles and then expanded the models to western Europe and north Africa. We produced maps of the progression of migration that disclosed local patterns of migration consistent with those obtained from the analyses of the movements of ringed individuals. Timing of migration estimated from our model is consistent with data on migration phenology of the Barn Swallow available in the literature, but in some cases it is later than that estimated by data collected at ringing stations, which, however, may not be representative of migration phenology over large geographical areas. The comparison of median migration date estimated over the same geographical area among time periods showed no significant advancement of spring migration over the whole of Europe, but a significant advancement of autumn migration in southern Europe. Our modelling approach can be generalized to any records of ringing date and locality of individuals including those which have not been recovered subsequently, as well as to geo-referenced databases of sightings of migratory individuals.

  8. Identifying 'unhealthy' food advertising on television: a case study applying the UK Nutrient Profile model. (United States)

    Jenkin, Gabrielle; Wilson, Nick; Hermanson, Nicole


    To evaluate the feasibility of the UK Nutrient Profile (NP) model for identifying 'unhealthy' food advertisements using a case study of New Zealand television advertisements. Four weeks of weekday television from 15.30 hours to 18.30 hours was videotaped from a state-owned (free-to-air) television channel popular with children. Food advertisements were identified and their nutritional information collected in accordance with the requirements of the NP model. Nutrient information was obtained from a variety of sources including food labels, company websites and a national nutritional database. From the 60 h sample of weekday afternoon television, there were 1893 advertisements, of which 483 were for food products or retailers. After applying the NP model, 66 % of these were classified as advertising high-fat, high-salt and high-sugar (HFSS) foods; 28 % were classified as advertising non-HFSS foods; and the remaining 2 % were unclassifiable. More than half (53 %) of the HFSS food advertisements were for 'mixed meal' items promoted by major fast-food franchises. The advertising of non-HFSS food was sparse, covering a narrow range of food groups, with no advertisements for fresh fruit or vegetables. Despite the NP model having some design limitations in classifying real-world televised food advertisements, it was easily applied to this sample and could clearly identify HFSS products. Policy makers who do not wish to completely restrict food advertising to children outright should consider using this NP model for regulating food advertising.

  9. Online Cancer Information Seeking: Applying and Extending the Comprehensive Model of Information Seeking. (United States)

    Van Stee, Stephanie K; Yang, Qinghua


    This study applied the comprehensive model of information seeking (CMIS) to online cancer information and extended the model by incorporating an exogenous variable: interest in online health information exchange with health providers. A nationally representative sample from the Health Information National Trends Survey 4 Cycle 4 was analyzed to examine the extended CMIS in predicting online cancer information seeking. Findings from a structural equation model supported most of the hypotheses derived from the CMIS, as well as the extension of the model related to interest in online health information exchange. In particular, socioeconomic status, beliefs, and interest in online health information exchange predicted utility. Utility, in turn, predicted online cancer information seeking, as did information-carrier characteristics. An unexpected but important finding from the study was the significant, direct relationship between cancer worry and online cancer information seeking. Theoretical and practical implications are discussed.

  10. Adapted strategic plannig model applied to small business: a case study in the fitness area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eduarda Tirelli Hennig


    Full Text Available The strategic planning is an important management tool in the corporate scenario and shall not be restricted to big Companies. However, this kind of planning process in small business may need special adaptations due to their own characteristics. This paper aims to identify and adapt the existent models of strategic planning to the scenario of a small business in the fitness area. Initially, it is accomplished a comparative study among models of different authors to identify theirs phases and activities. Then, it is defined which of these phases and activities should be present in a model that will be utilized in a small business. That model was applied to a Pilates studio; it involves the establishment of an organizational identity, an environmental analysis as well as the definition of strategic goals, strategies and actions to reach them. Finally, benefits to the organization could be identified, as well as hurdles in the implementation of the tool.

  11. Evaluation model applied to TRANSPETRO's Marine Terminals Standardization Program

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Almeida, Maria Fatima Ludovico de; Mueller, Gabriela [Pontificia Universidade Catolica do Rio de Janeiro (PUC-Rio), Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil). Instituto Tecnologico; Garcia, Luciano Maldonado [TRANSPETRO - PETROBRAS Transporte S.A., Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)


    This paper describes an innovative evaluation model applied to TRANSPETRO's 'Marine Terminals Standardization Program' based on updating approaches of programs evaluation and organizational learning. Since the program was launched in 2004, the need for having an evaluation model able to evaluate its implementation progress, to measure the degree of standards compliance and its potential economic, social and environmental impacts has become evident. Within a vision of safe and environmentally responsible operations of marine terminals, this evaluation model was jointly designed by TRANSPETRO and PUC-Rio to promote continuous improvement and learning in operational practices and in the standardization process itself. TRANSPETRO believes that standardization supports its services and management innovation capability by creating objective and internationally recognized parameters, targets and metrology for its business activities. The conceptual model and application guidelines for this important tool are presented in this paper, as well as the next steps towards its implementation. (author)

  12. Neural networks and differential evolution algorithm applied for modelling the depollution process of some gaseous streams. (United States)

    Curteanu, Silvia; Suditu, Gabriel Dan; Buburuzan, Adela Marina; Dragoi, Elena Niculina


    The depollution of some gaseous streams containing n-hexane is studied by adsorption in a fixed bed column, under dynamic conditions, using granular activated carbon and two types of non-functionalized hypercross-linked polymeric resins. In order to model the process, a new neuro-evolutionary approach is proposed. It is a combination of a modified differential evolution (DE) with neural networks (NNs) and two local search algorithms, the global and local optimizers, working together to determine the optimal NN model. The main elements that characterize the applied variant of DE consist in using an opposition-based learning initialization, a simple self-adaptive procedure for the control parameters, and a modified mutation principle based on the fitness function as a criterion for reorganization. The results obtained prove that the proposed algorithm is able to determine a good model of the considered process, its performance being better than those of an available phenomenological model.

  13. Diversity and use of ethno-medicinal plants in the region of Swat, North Pakistan. (United States)

    Akhtar, Naveed; Rashid, Abdur; Murad, Waheed; Bergmeier, Erwin


    Due to its diverse geographical and habitat conditions, northern Pakistan harbors a wealth of medicinal plants. The plants and their traditional use are part of the natural and cultural heritage of the region. This study was carried out to document which medicinal plant species and which plant parts are used in the region of Swat, which syndrome categories are particularly concerned, and which habitat spectrum is frequented by collectors. Finally, we assessed to which extent medicinal plants are vulnerable due to collection and habitat destruction. An ethnobotanical survey was undertaken in the Miandam area of Swat, North Pakistan. Data were collected through field assessment as well as from traditional healers and locals by means of personal interviews and semi-structured questionnaires. A total of 106 ethno-medicinal plant species belonging to 54 plant families were recorded. The most common growth forms were perennial (43%) and short-lived herbs (23%), shrubs (16%), and trees (15%). Most frequently used plant parts were leaves (24%), fruits (18%) and subterranean parts (15%). A considerable proportion of the ethno-medicinal plant species and remedies concerns gastro-intestinal disorders. The remedies were mostly prepared in the form of decoction or powder and were mainly taken orally. Eighty out of 106 ethno-medicinal plants were indigenous. Almost 50% of the plants occurred in synanthropic vegetation while slightly more than 50% were found in semi-natural, though extensively grazed, woodland and grassland vegetation. Three species (Aconitum violaceum, Colchicum luteum, Jasminum humile) must be considered vulnerable due to excessive collection. Woodlands are the main source for non-synanthropic indigenous medicinal plants. The latter include many range-restricted taxa and plants of which rhizomes and other subterranean parts are dug out for further processing as medicine. Medicinal plants are still widely used for treatment in the area of Swat. Some species of

  14. The 5D to 4D projection model applied as a Lepton to Galaxy Creation model

    CERN Document Server

    Wong, Kai-Wai; Jungner, Högne


    The 5D to 4D projection is presented in a simple geometry giving the Perelman Theorem, resulting in a 3D doughnut structure for the space manifold of the Lorentz space-time. It is shown that in the lowest quantum state, this Lorentz manifold confines and gives the de Broglie leptons from the massless 5D e-trinos. On the scale of the universe, it allows for a model for the creation of galaxies.

  15. Implementing team huddles in small rural hospitals: How does the Kotter model of change apply? (United States)

    Baloh, Jure; Zhu, Xi; Ward, Marcia M


    To examine how the process of change prescribed in Kotter's change model applies in implementing team huddles, and to assess the impact of the execution of early change phases on change success in later phases. Kotter's model can help to guide hospital leaders to implement change and potentially to improve success rates. However, the model is under studied, particularly in health care. We followed eight hospitals implementing team huddles for 2 years, interviewing the change teams quarterly to inquire about implementation progress. We assessed how the hospitals performed in the three overarching phases of the Kotter model, and examined whether performance in the initial phase influenced subsequent performance. In half of the hospitals, change processes were congruent with Kotter's model, where performance in the initial phase influenced their success in subsequent phases. In other hospitals, change processes were incongruent with the model, and their success depended on implementation scope and the strategies employed. We found mixed support for the Kotter model. It better fits implementation that aims to spread to multiple hospital units. When the scope is limited, changes can be successful even when steps are skipped. Kotter's model can be a useful guide for nurse managers implementing changes. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. A methodology for estimating the uncertainty in model parameters applying the robust Bayesian inferences

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Joo Yeon; Lee, Seung Hyun; Park, Tai Jin [Korean Association for Radiation Application, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)


    Any real application of Bayesian inference must acknowledge that both prior distribution and likelihood function have only been specified as more or less convenient approximations to whatever the analyzer's true belief might be. If the inferences from the Bayesian analysis are to be trusted, it is important to determine that they are robust to such variations of prior and likelihood as might also be consistent with the analyzer's stated beliefs. The robust Bayesian inference was applied to atmospheric dispersion assessment using Gaussian plume model. The scopes of contaminations were specified as the uncertainties of distribution type and parametric variability. The probabilistic distribution of model parameters was assumed to be contaminated as the symmetric unimodal and unimodal distributions. The distribution of the sector-averaged relative concentrations was then calculated by applying the contaminated priors to the model parameters. The sector-averaged concentrations for stability class were compared by applying the symmetric unimodal and unimodal priors, respectively, as the contaminated one based on the class of ε-contamination. Though ε was assumed as 10%, the medians reflecting the symmetric unimodal priors were nearly approximated within 10% compared with ones reflecting the plausible ones. However, the medians reflecting the unimodal priors were approximated within 20% for a few downwind distances compared with ones reflecting the plausible ones. The robustness has been answered by estimating how the results of the Bayesian inferences are robust to reasonable variations of the plausible priors. From these robust inferences, it is reasonable to apply the symmetric unimodal priors for analyzing the robustness of the Bayesian inferences.

  17. Applying Mathematical Optimization Methods to an ACT-R Instance-Based Learning Model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nadia Said

    Full Text Available Computational models of cognition provide an interface to connect advanced mathematical tools and methods to empirically supported theories of behavior in psychology, cognitive science, and neuroscience. In this article, we consider a computational model of instance-based learning, implemented in the ACT-R cognitive architecture. We propose an approach for obtaining mathematical reformulations of such cognitive models that improve their computational tractability. For the well-established Sugar Factory dynamic decision making task, we conduct a simulation study to analyze central model parameters. We show how mathematical optimization techniques can be applied to efficiently identify optimal parameter values with respect to different optimization goals. Beyond these methodological contributions, our analysis reveals the sensitivity of this particular task with respect to initial settings and yields new insights into how average human performance deviates from potential optimal performance. We conclude by discussing possible extensions of our approach as well as future steps towards applying more powerful derivative-based optimization methods.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anatoly N. Vetrov


    Full Text Available Abstract. Objectives To increase the functional efficiency of information and educational environments created by automated training systems by realising individually oriented formation of knowledge using adaptive generation of heterogeneous educational influences based on an innovative block of parametric cognitive models and a set of programs to support the automation of research tasks. Method System analysis and modeling of the information and educational environment. In the process of automating the diagnosis of the individual personality characteristics of the subject of education, each method of investigation determines the input: localisation of research method, name of block of questions (subtest, textual explanatory content, formulation of question and answer variants, nominal value of the time interval for displaying the formulation of the question, as well as the graphical accompaniment of a specific question and answers thereto. Results The applied diagnostic module acts as a component of the automated learning system with adaptation properties on the basis of the innovative block of parametric cognitive models. The training system implements the generation of an ordered sequence of informational and educational influences that reflect the content of the subject of a study. Conclusion The applied diagnostic module is designed to automate the study of physiological, psychological and linguistic parameters of the cognitive model of the subject of education to provide a systematic analysis of the information and educational environment and the realisation of adaptive generation of educational influences by using training automation approaches that allow the individual characteristics of trainees to be taken into account. 

  19. Use of Generalised Linear Models to quantify rainfall input uncertainty to hydrological modelling in the Upper Nile (United States)

    Kigobe, M.; McIntyre, N.; Wheater, H. S.


    Interest in the application of climate and hydrological models in the Nile basin has risen in the recent past; however, the first drawback for most efforts has been the estimation of historic precipitation patterns. In this study we have applied stochastic models to infill and extend observed data sets to generate inputs for hydrological modelling. Several stochastic climate models within the Generalised Linear Modelling (GLM) framework have been applied to reproduce spatial and temporal patterns of precipitation in the Kyoga basin. A logistic regression model (describing rainfall occurrence) and a gamma distribution (describing rainfall amounts) are used to model rainfall patterns. The parameters of the models are functions of spatial and temporal covariates, and are fitted to the observed rainfall data using log-likelihood methods. Using the fitted model, multi-site rainfall sequences over the Kyoga basin are generated stochastically as a function of the dominant seasonal, climatic and geographic controls. The rainfall sequences generated are then used to drive a semi distributed hydrological model using the Soil Water and Assessment Tool (SWAT). The sensitivity of runoff to uncertainty associated with missing precipitation records is thus tested. In an application to the Lake Kyoga catchment, the performance of the hydrological model highly depends on the spatial representation of the input precipitation patterns, model parameterisation and the performance of the GLM stochastic models used to generate the input rainfall. The results obtained so far disclose that stochastic models can be developed for several climatic regions within the Kyoga basin; and, given identification of a stochastic rainfall model; input uncertainty due to precipitation can be usefully quantified. The ways forward for rainfall modelling and hydrological simulation in Uganda and the Upper Nile are discussed. Key Words: Precipitation, Generalised Linear Models, Input Uncertainty, Soil Water

  20. Evaluation of distributed parameters mathematical models applied to grain hydration with volume change (United States)

    Nicolin, Douglas J.; Jorge, Regina Maria M.; Jorge, Luiz Mario M.


    Several studies have taken into account the volume change of foods that undergo hydration or drying. However, the simplest boundary condition at the surface is usually considered to facilitate the solution of variable volume models. This paper presents a model of moisture diffusion in soybean grains that considers the volume change of these grains when absorbing water and also the dependence of diffusivity on moisture content. The boundary condition of equality of diffusive and convective flows on the surface was used and compared with two other approaches commonly found in the literature of grain hydration. This boundary condition was also applied to the case of constant volume of the grains and it was concluded that there are significant differences when the change in volume is taken into account. An analysis of the diffusion coefficients determined as functions of moisture content, temperature, and hydration time is presented for the best model.

  1. Model-based testing with UML applied to a roaming algorithm for bluetooth devices. (United States)

    Dai, Zhen Ru; Grabowski, Jens; Neukirchen, Helmut; Pals, Holger


    In late 2001, the Object Management Group issued a Request for Proposal to develop a testing profile for UML 2.0. In June 2003, the work on the UML 2.0 Testing Profile was finally adopted by the OMG. Since March 2004, it has become an official standard of the OMG. The UML 2.0 Testing Profile provides support for UML based model-driven testing. This paper introduces a methodology on how to use the testing profile in order to modify and extend an existing UML design model for test issues. The application of the methodology will be explained by applying it to an existing UML Model for a Bluetooth device.

  2. The Chemical Percolation Devolatilization Model Applied to the Devolatilization of Coal in High Intensity Acoustic Fields

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Veras Carlos A. G.


    Full Text Available The chemical percolation devolatilization model (CPD was extended for the prediction of drying and devolatilization of coal particles in high intensity acoustic fields found in Rijke tube reactors. The acoustic oscillations enhance the heat and mass transfer processes in the fuel bed as well as in the freeboard, above the grate. The results from simulations in a Rijke tube combustor have shown an increase in the rate of water evaporation and thermal degradation of the particles. The devolatilization model, based on chemical percolation, applied in pulsating regime allowed the dynamic prediction on the yields of CO, CO2, CH4, H2O, other light gases as well as tar which are important on ignition and stabilization of flames. The model predicted the quantity and form of nitrogen containing species generated during devolatilization, for which knowledge is strategically indispensable for reducing pollutant emissions (NOx in flames under acoustic excitation .

  3. A decision model applied to alcohol effects on driver signal light behavior (United States)

    Schwartz, S. H.; Allen, R. W.


    A decision model including perceptual noise or inconsistency is developed from expected value theory to explain driver stop and go decisions at signaled intersections. The model is applied to behavior in a car simulation and instrumented vehicle. Objective and subjective changes in driver decision making were measured with changes in blood alcohol concentration (BAC). Treatment levels averaged 0.00, 0.10 and 0.14 BAC for a total of 26 male subjects. Data were taken for drivers approaching signal lights at three timing configurations. The correlation between model predictions and behavior was highly significant. In contrast to previous research, analysis indicates that increased BAC results in increased perceptual inconsistency, which is the primary cause of increased risk taking at low probability of success signal lights.

  4. An effective model for ergonomic optimization applied to a new automotive assembly line

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Duraccio, Vincenzo [University Niccolò Cusano, Rome Via Don Gnocchi,00166, Roma Italy (Italy); Elia, Valerio [Dept. of Innovation Engineering - University of Salento Via Monteroni, 73100, Lecce (Italy); Forcina, Antonio [University Parthenope, Dep. of Engineering Centro Direzionale - Isola C4 80143 - Naples - Italy (Italy)


    An efficient ergonomic optimization can lead to a significant improvement in production performance and a considerable reduction of costs. In the present paper new model for ergonomic optimization is proposed. The new approach is based on the criteria defined by National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health and, adapted to Italian legislation. The proposed model provides an ergonomic optimization, by analyzing ergonomic relations between manual work in correct conditions. The model includes a schematic and systematic analysis method of the operations, and identifies all possible ergonomic aspects to be evaluated. The proposed approach has been applied to an automotive assembly line, where the operation repeatability makes the optimization fundamental. The proposed application clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the new approach.

  5. An effective model for ergonomic optimization applied to a new automotive assembly line (United States)

    Duraccio, Vincenzo; Elia, Valerio; Forcina, Antonio


    An efficient ergonomic optimization can lead to a significant improvement in production performance and a considerable reduction of costs. In the present paper new model for ergonomic optimization is proposed. The new approach is based on the criteria defined by National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health and, adapted to Italian legislation. The proposed model provides an ergonomic optimization, by analyzing ergonomic relations between manual work in correct conditions. The model includes a schematic and systematic analysis method of the operations, and identifies all possible ergonomic aspects to be evaluated. The proposed approach has been applied to an automotive assembly line, where the operation repeatability makes the optimization fundamental. The proposed application clearly demonstrates the effectiveness of the new approach.

  6. Method for evaluating prediction models that apply the results of randomized trials to individual patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kattan Michael W


    Full Text Available Abstract Introduction The clinical significance of a treatment effect demonstrated in a randomized trial is typically assessed by reference to differences in event rates at the group level. An alternative is to make individualized predictions for each patient based on a prediction model. This approach is growing in popularity, particularly for cancer. Despite its intuitive advantages, it remains plausible that some prediction models may do more harm than good. Here we present a novel method for determining whether predictions from a model should be used to apply the results of a randomized trial to individual patients, as opposed to using group level results. Methods We propose applying the prediction model to a data set from a randomized trial and examining the results of patients for whom the treatment arm recommended by a prediction model is congruent with allocation. These results are compared with the strategy of treating all patients through use of a net benefit function that incorporates both the number of patients treated and the outcome. We examined models developed using data sets regarding adjuvant chemotherapy for colorectal cancer and Dutasteride for benign prostatic hypertrophy. Results For adjuvant chemotherapy, we found that patients who would opt for chemotherapy even for small risk reductions, and, conversely, those who would require a very large risk reduction, would on average be harmed by using a prediction model; those with intermediate preferences would on average benefit by allowing such information to help their decision making. Use of prediction could, at worst, lead to the equivalent of an additional death or recurrence per 143 patients; at best it could lead to the equivalent of a reduction in the number of treatments of 25% without an increase in event rates. In the Dutasteride case, where the average benefit of treatment is more modest, there is a small benefit of prediction modelling, equivalent to a reduction of

  7. Heavy metals in agricultural soils and crops and their health risks in Swat District, northern Pakistan. (United States)

    Khan, Kifayatullah; Lu, Yonglong; Khan, Hizbullah; Ishtiaq, Muhammad; Khan, Sardar; Waqas, Muhammad; Wei, Luo; Wang, Tieyu


    This study assessed the concentrations of heavy metals such as cadmium (Cd), chromium (Cr), copper (Cu), manganese (Mn), nickel (Ni) and zinc (Zn) in agricultural soils and crops (fruits, grains and vegetable) and their possible human health risk in Swat District, northern Pakistan. Cd concentration was found higher than the limit (0.05 mg/kg) set by world health organization in 95% fruit and 100% vegetable samples. Moreover, the concentrations of Cr, Cu, Mn, Ni and Zn in the soils were shown significant correlations with those in the crops. The metal transfer factor (MTF) was found highest for Cd followed by Cr>Ni>Zn>Cu>Mn, while the health risk assessment revealed that there was no health risk for most of the heavy metals except Cd, which showed a high level of health risk index (HRI⩾10E-1) that would pose a potential health risk to the consumers. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Assessing ways to combat eutrophication in a Chinese drinking water reservoir using SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Anders; Trolle, Dennis; Me, W


    Across China, nutrient losses associated with agricultural production and domestic sewage have triggered eutrophication, and local managers are challenged to comply with drinking water quality requirements. Evidently, the improvement of water quality should be targeted holistically and encompass...... both point sources and surface activities within the watershed of a reservoir. We expanded the ordinary Soil Water Assessment Tool – (SWAT) with a widely used empirical equation to estimate total phosphorus (TP) concentrations in lakes and reservoirs. Subsequently, we examined the effects of changes...... in land and livestock management and sewage treatment on nutrient export and derived consequences for water quality in the Chinese subtropical Kaiping (Dashahe) drinking water reservoir (supplying 0.4 million people). The critical load of TP was estimated to 13.5 tonnes yr–1 in order to comply...

  9. A Semiotic Model of Destination Representations Applied to Cultural and Heritage Tourism Marketing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pennington, Jody; Thomsen, Robert Chr.


    The article argues that semiotic analysis can be applied advantageously in tourism studies. C.S. Peirce’s representation triad is applied to destination representations by conceptualizing destinations, related activities, or entities as objects; photographs or textual descriptions as signs......; and potential tourists’ comprehension of the sign as interpretants. Three formal analyses of selected photographs used by convention and visitor bureaus (VISIT FLORIDA, Destination Halifax and VisitDenmark) illustrate how the sign-object relationship is always characterized by a combination of iconic, indexical......, and symbolic qualities, each of which destination marketers should consider in choosing representations because of the influence those qualities exert on reception. It is argued that the semiotic model can help marketers make informed decisions about the relevance and probable impact of the iconicity...

  10. Dynamic plant uptake model applied for drip irrigation of an insecticide to pepper fruit plants. (United States)

    Legind, Charlotte N; Kennedy, Coleen M; Rein, Arno; Snyder, Nathan; Trapp, Stefan


    Drip application of insecticides is an effective way to deliver the chemical to the plant that avoids off-site movement via spray drift and minimizes applicator exposure. The aim of this paper is to present a cascade model for the uptake of pesticide into plants following drip irrigation, its application for a soil-applied insecticide and a sensitivity analysis of the model parameters. The model predicted the measured increase and decline of residues following two soil applications of an insecticide to peppers, with an absolute error between model and measurement ranging from 0.002 to 0.034 mg kg fw(-1). Maximum measured concentrations in pepper fruit were approximately 0.22 mg kg fw(-1). Temperature was the most sensitive component for predicting the peak and final concentration in pepper fruit, through its influence on soil and plant degradation rates. Repeated simulations of pulse inputs with the cascade model adequately describe soil pesticide applications to an actual cropped system and reasonably mimic it. The model has the potential to be used for the optimization of practical features, such as application rates and waiting times between applications and before harvest, through the integrated accounting of soil, plant and environmental influences. Copyright © 2011 Society of Chemical Industry.

  11. FDTD-based Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation model applied to specific neurodegenerative disorders. (United States)

    Fanjul-Vélez, Félix; Salas-García, Irene; Ortega-Quijano, Noé; Arce-Diego, José Luis


    Non-invasive treatment of neurodegenerative diseases is particularly challenging in Western countries, where the population age is increasing. In this work, magnetic propagation in human head is modelled by Finite-Difference Time-Domain (FDTD) method, taking into account specific characteristics of Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation (TMS) in neurodegenerative diseases. It uses a realistic high-resolution three-dimensional human head mesh. The numerical method is applied to the analysis of magnetic radiation distribution in the brain using two realistic magnetic source models: a circular coil and a figure-8 coil commonly employed in TMS. The complete model was applied to the study of magnetic stimulation in Alzheimer and Parkinson Diseases (AD, PD). The results show the electrical field distribution when magnetic stimulation is supplied to those brain areas of specific interest for each particular disease. Thereby the current approach entails a high potential for the establishment of the current underdeveloped TMS dosimetry in its emerging application to AD and PD. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Applying Infinite State Model Checking and Other Analysis Techniques to Tabular Requirements Specifications of Safety-Critical Systems (United States)


    Although it is most often applied to finite state models, in recent years, symbolic model checking has been extended to infinite state models using...toolset. Based on the experimental results, strengths and weaknesses of infinite state model checking with respect to other formal analysis...approaches such as explicit and finite state model checking and theorem proving are discussed.

  13. Risk assessment and food allergy: the probabilistic model applied to allergens. (United States)

    Spanjersberg, M Q I; Kruizinga, A G; Rennen, M A J; Houben, G F


    In order to assess the risk of unintended exposure to food allergens, traditional deterministic risk assessment is usually applied, leading to inconsequential conclusions as 'an allergic reaction cannot be excluded'. TNO therefore developed a quantitative risk assessment model for allergens based on probabilistic techniques resulting in a more exhaustive risk assessment and more detailed information. By now, this approach is recognized as the future approach in allergen risk assessment. A case study (hazelnut proteins in chocolate spread) is presented as a proof of concept.

  14. Analysis, Modelling, and Simulation of Droop Control with Virtual Impedance Loop Applied to Parallel UPS Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lima, Francisco Kleber A.; Branco, Carlos Gustavo C.; Guerrero, Josep M.


    This paper explores a control strategy for parallel uninterruptible power systems (UPS). The control technique used in that work was based on the droop control method. This method is usually applied to achieve good active and reactive power sharing when communication between the inverters...... is difficult due to its physical location. This paper has considered that the UPS systems there were no comunication between their controls. A detailed mathematical model about the explored system is shown in that work and simulation results are presented in order to prove the theory presented....

  15. Applied Distributed Model Predictive Control for Energy Efficient Buildings and Ramp Metering (United States)

    Koehler, Sarah Muraoka

    suited for nonlinear optimization problems. The parallel computation of the algorithm exploits iterative linear algebra methods for the main linear algebra computations in the algorithm. We show that the splitting of the algorithm is flexible and can thus be applied to various distributed platform configurations. The two proposed algorithms are applied to two main energy and transportation control problems. The first application is energy efficient building control. Buildings represent 40% of energy consumption in the United States. Thus, it is significant to improve the energy efficiency of buildings. The goal is to minimize energy consumption subject to the physics of the building (e.g. heat transfer laws), the constraints of the actuators as well as the desired operating constraints (thermal comfort of the occupants), and heat load on the system. In this thesis, we describe the control systems of forced air building systems in practice. We discuss the "Trim and Respond" algorithm which is a distributed control algorithm that is used in practice, and show that it performs similarly to a one-step explicit DMPC algorithm. Then, we apply the novel distributed primal-dual active-set method and provide extensive numerical results for the building MPC problem. The second main application is the control of ramp metering signals to optimize traffic flow through a freeway system. This application is particularly important since urban congestion has more than doubled in the past few decades. The ramp metering problem is to maximize freeway throughput subject to freeway dynamics (derived from mass conservation), actuation constraints, freeway capacity constraints, and predicted traffic demand. In this thesis, we develop a hybrid model predictive controller for ramp metering that is guaranteed to be persistently feasible and stable. This contrasts to previous work on MPC for ramp metering where such guarantees are absent. We apply a smoothing method to the hybrid model predictive

  16. Development of A Darcy-flow model applied to simulate the drying of shrinking media

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Chemkhi


    Full Text Available A mathematical model is developed to describe the coupling between heat, mass, and momentum transfers and is applied to simulate the drying of saturated and shrinking media. This model is called "the Darcy-flow model", which is based on the fact that the liquid flow is induced by a pressure gradient. The main novelties of the model are that firstly no phenomenological law need be introduced by keeping solid mass conservation and solid volume conservation together and secondly we use the effective stresses notion strongly coupling mechanical behaviour with mass transport. The analysis is limited to the preheating and the constant rate drying periods because shrinkage occurs during these two periods for most materials. Our purpose is to simulate the drying process and to compare the results of the simulations and the experiments done on clay material to demonstrate the consistency of the model developed. One of the important conclusions is that is no correlation between moisture flow and moisture gradient.

  17. A system simulation model applied to the production schedule of a fish processing facility

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carla Roberta Pereira


    Full Text Available The simulation seeks to import the reality to a controlled environment, where it is possible to study it behavior, under several conditions, without involving physical risks and/or high costs. Thus, the system simulation becomes a useful and powerful technique in emergence markets, as the tilapiculture sector that needs to expand its business. The main purpose of this study was the development of a simulation model to assist the decisions making of the production scheduling of a fish processing facility. It was applied, as research method, the case study and the modeling/simulation, including in this set the SimuCAD methodology and the development phases of a simulation model. The model works with several alternative scenarios, testing different working shifts, types of flows and production capacity, besides variations of the ending inventory and sales. The result of this research was a useful and differentiated model simulation to assist the decision making of the production scheduling of fish processing facility studied.

  18. Hybrid nested sampling algorithm for Bayesian model selection applied to inverse subsurface flow problems

    KAUST Repository

    Elsheikh, Ahmed H.


    A Hybrid Nested Sampling (HNS) algorithm is proposed for efficient Bayesian model calibration and prior model selection. The proposed algorithm combines, Nested Sampling (NS) algorithm, Hybrid Monte Carlo (HMC) sampling and gradient estimation using Stochastic Ensemble Method (SEM). NS is an efficient sampling algorithm that can be used for Bayesian calibration and estimating the Bayesian evidence for prior model selection. Nested sampling has the advantage of computational feasibility. Within the nested sampling algorithm, a constrained sampling step is performed. For this step, we utilize HMC to reduce the correlation between successive sampled states. HMC relies on the gradient of the logarithm of the posterior distribution, which we estimate using a stochastic ensemble method based on an ensemble of directional derivatives. SEM only requires forward model runs and the simulator is then used as a black box and no adjoint code is needed. The developed HNS algorithm is successfully applied for Bayesian calibration and prior model selection of several nonlinear subsurface flow problems. © 2013 Elsevier Inc.

  19. Monitoring the latent and sensible heat fluxes in vineyard by applying the energy balance model METRIC

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. González-Piqueras


    Full Text Available The monitoring of the energy fluxes over vineyard applying the one source energy balance model METRIC (Allen et al., 2007b are shown in this work. This model is considered operaive because it uses an internalized calibration method derived from the selection of two extreme pixels in the scene, from the minimum ET values such as the bare soil to a maximum that corresponds to full cover active vegetation. The model provides the maps of net radiation (Rn, soil heat flux (G, sensible heat (H, latent heat (LE, evapotranspiration (ET and crop coefficient (Kc. The flux values have been validated with a flux tower installed in the plot, providing a RMSE for instantaneous fluxes of 43 W m2, 33 W m2, 55 W m2 y 40 W m2 on Rn, G, H and LE. In relative terms are 8%, 29%, 21% and 20% respectively. The RMSE at daily scale for the ET is 0.58 mm day-1, with a value in the crop coefficient for the mid stage of 0.42±0.08. These results allow considering the model adequate for crop monitoring and irrigation purposes in vineyard. The values obtained have been compared to other studies over vineyard and with alternative energy balance models showing similar results.

  20. Project Management for a Wind Turbine Construction by Applying Fuzzy Multiple Objective Linear Programming Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    He-Yau Kang


    Full Text Available Meeting the demand of energy is a challenge for many countries these days, and generating electricity from renewable resources has become a main trend for future economic development. The construction of a renewable energy plant is costly and timely; therefore, a good project management model is essential. In this paper, a fuzzy multiple objective linear programming (FMOLP model is constructed based on program evaluation and review technique (PERT first. With the consideration of the different degrees of importance of the multiple objectives, a fuzzy multiple weighted-objective linear programming (FMWOLP model is constructed next. Through each proposed model, a compromise solution can be devised to maximize the total degree of satisfaction while considering multiple objectives. The results can provide references for the management on what activities and how long these activities should be crashed, how much the total project cost should be, and how long the total project duration time should be. Finally, the proposed models are applied to a case study of a wind turbine construction in Taiwan.

  1. Modeling the QSAR of ACE-Inhibitory Peptides with ANN and Its Applied Illustration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ronghai He


    Full Text Available A quantitative structure-activity relationship (QSAR model of angiotensin-converting enzyme- (ACE- inhibitory peptides was built with an artificial neural network (ANN approach based on structural or activity data of 58 dipeptides (including peptide activity, hydrophilic amino acids content, three-dimensional shape, size, and electrical parameters, the overall correlation coefficient of the predicted versus actual data points is =0.928, and the model was applied in ACE-inhibitory peptides preparation from defatted wheat germ protein (DWGP. According to the QSAR model, the C-terminal of the peptide was found to have principal importance on ACE-inhibitory activity, that is, if the C-terminal is hydrophobic amino acid, the peptide's ACE-inhibitory activity will be high, and proteins which contain abundant hydrophobic amino acids are suitable to produce ACE-inhibitory peptides. According to the model, DWGP is a good protein material to produce ACE-inhibitory peptides because it contains 42.84% of hydrophobic amino acids, and structural information analysis from the QSAR model showed that proteases of Alcalase and Neutrase were suitable candidates for ACE-inhibitory peptides preparation from DWGP. Considering higher DH and similar ACE-inhibitory activity of hydrolysate compared with Neutrase, Alcalase was finally selected through experimental study.

  2. Women's Situational Coping With Acquaintance Sexual Assault: Applying an Appraisal-Based Model. (United States)

    Nurius, Paula S; Norris, Jeanette; Macy, Rebecca J; Huang, B U


    Drawing on theories of appraisal-based coping, the present study applied structural modeling to examine relationships among personal goal orientations, primary and secondary appraisals of acquaintance sexual assault, and women's emotional and behavioral responses to it. Based on 415 college women's reports of a sexual assault experience, the model shows both direct and indirect effects. Assertive, diplomatic, and immobilized responding were each predicted by a unique profile of appraisals and orientations; personal goal orientations and primary appraisals were completely mediated by secondary appraisals. Ways that these findings can facilitate self-protective coping in an acquaintance sexual assault situation, leading to the development of effective, well-tailored self-defense and resistance programs, are discussed.

  3. New 2D Thermal Model Applied to an LHC Inner Triplet Quadrupole Magnet

    CERN Document Server

    Bielert, ER; Ten Kate, HHJ; Verweij, AP


    A newly developed numerical model is presented that enables to compute two-dimensional heat transfer and temperature distributions over the cross-section of superconducting accelerator magnets. The entire thermal path from strand-in-cable to heat sink, including helium channels is considered. Superfluid helium properties are combined with temperature- and field-dependent non-linear solid material properties. Interfacial interactions are also taken into account. The model is applied to the cross-section of an inner triplet quadrupole magnet featuring a new concept for the ground insulation. Beam loss profiles are implemented as main heat source. It is concluded that operational margins can be considerably increased by opening additional thermal paths, improving the cooling conditions.

  4. A Formal Verification Model for Performance Analysis of Reinforcement Learning Algorithms Applied t o Dynamic Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shrirang Ambaji KULKARNI


    Full Text Available Routing data packets in a dynamic network is a difficult and important problem in computer networks. As the network is dynamic, it is subject to frequent topology changes and is subject to variable link costs due to congestion and bandwidth. Existing shortest path algorithms fail to converge to better solutions under dynamic network conditions. Reinforcement learning algorithms posses better adaptation techniques in dynamic environments. In this paper we apply model based Q-Routing technique for routing in dynamic network. To analyze the correctness of Q-Routing algorithms mathematically, we provide a proof and also implement a SPIN based verification model. We also perform simulation based analysis of Q-Routing for given metrics.

  5. Control Theory Concepts Applied to Retail Supply Chain: A System Dynamics Modeling Environment Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Balaji Janamanchi


    Full Text Available Control theory concepts have been long used to successfully manage and optimize complex systems. Using system dynamics (SD modeling methodology, which is continuous deterministic simulation modeling methodology, we apply control theory concepts to develop a suitable performance functional (or objective function that optimizes the performance of a retail supply chain. The focus is to develop insights for inventory management to prevent stock-outs and unfilled orders and to fill customer orders at the lowest possible cost to supply chain partners under different scenarios, in a two-player supplier-retailer supply chain. Moderate levels of inventory, defining appropriate performance functional, appear to be crucial in choosing the right policies for managing retail supply chain systems. The study also demonstrated how multiple objectives can be combined in a single performance functional (or objective function by carefully assigning suitable weights to the components of objectives based on their priority and the existence of possible trade off opportunities.

  6. Uncertainty analysis for complex watershed water quality models: the parameter identifiability problem (United States)

    Han, F.; Zheng, Y.


    Watershed-scale water quality simulation using distributed models like the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) usually involves significant uncertainty. The uncertainty needs to be appropriately quantified if the simulation is used to support management practices. Many uncertainty analysis (UA) approaches have been developed for watershed hydrologic models, but their applicability to watershed water quality models, which are more complex, has not been well investigated. This study applied a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, DiffeRential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis algorithm (DREAM), to the SWAT model. The sediment and total nitrogen pollution in the Newport Bay watershed (Southern California) was used as a case study. Different error assumptions were tested. The major findings include: 1) in the water quality simulation, many parameters are non-identifiable due to different causes; 2) the existence of identifiability seriously reduces the efficiency of the MCMC algorithm, and distorts the posterior distributions of the non-identifiable parameters, although the uncertainty band produced by the algorithm does not change much if enough samples are obtained. It was concluded that a sensitivity analysis (SA) followed by an identifiability analysis is necessary to reduce the non-identifiability, and enhances the applicability of a Bayesian UA approach to complex watershed water quality models. In addition, the analysis on the different causes of non-identifiablity provides insights into model tradeoffs between complexity and performance.

  7. RISCOM Applied to the Belgian Partnership Model: More and Deeper Levels

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bombaerts, Gunter; Bovy, Michel; Laes, Erik [SCKCEN, Mol (Belgium). PISA


    Technology participation is not a new concept. It has been applied in different settings in different countries. In this article, we report a comparing analysis of the RISCOM model in Sweden and the Belgian partnership model for low and intermediate short-lived nuclear waste. After a brief description of the partnerships and the RISCOM model, we apply the latter to the first and come to recommendations for the partnership model. The strength of the partnership approach is at the community level. In one of the villages, up to one percent of the population was motivated to discuss at least once a month for four years the nuts and bolts of the repository concept. The stress on the community level and the lack of a guardian includes a weakness as well. First of all, if communities come into competition, the inter-community discussions can start resembling local politics and can become less transparent. Local actors are concerned actors but actors at the national level are concerned as well. The local decisions influence how the waste will be transported. The local decisions also determine an extra cost of electricity. We therefore recommend a broad (in terms of territory) public debate on the participation experiments preceding and concluding the local participation process in which this local process maintains an important position. The conclusions of our comparative analysis are: (1) The guardian of the process at the national level is missing. Since the Belgian nuclear regulator plays a controlling role after the process, we recommend a technology assessment institute at the federal level. (2) We state that stretching in the partnership model can happen more profoundly and recommend a 'counter institute' at the European level. The role of non-participative actors should be valued. (3) Recursion levels can be taken as a point of departure for discussion about the problem framing. If people accept them, there is no problem. If people clearly mention issues

  8. Nonlinear model updating applied to the IMAC XXXII Round Robin benchmark system (United States)

    Kurt, Mehmet; Moore, Keegan J.; Eriten, Melih; McFarland, D. Michael; Bergman, Lawrence A.; Vakakis, Alexander F.


    We consider the application of a new nonlinear model updating strategy to a computational benchmark system. The approach relies on analyzing system response time series in the frequency-energy domain by constructing both Hamiltonian and forced and damped frequency-energy plots (FEPs). The system parameters are then characterized and updated by matching the backbone branches of the FEPs with the frequency-energy wavelet transforms of experimental and/or computational time series. The main advantage of this method is that no nonlinearity model is assumed a priori, and the system model is updated solely based on simulation and/or experimental measured time series. By matching the frequency-energy plots of the benchmark system and its reduced-order model, we show that we are able to retrieve the global strongly nonlinear dynamics in the frequency and energy ranges of interest, identify bifurcations, characterize local nonlinearities, and accurately reconstruct time series. We apply the proposed methodology to a benchmark problem, which was posed to the system identification community prior to the IMAC XXXII (2014) and XXXIII (2015) Conferences as a "Round Robin Exercise on Nonlinear System Identification". We show that we are able to identify the parameters of the non-linear element in the problem with a priori knowledge about its position.

  9. Spatial modeling of occlusion patterns applied to the detection of surface-laid mines (United States)

    Lundberg, Magnus P.; Brown, Christopher L.; Uppsall, Magnus S.


    Images recorded in ground areas potentially containing surface laid land mines are considered. The first hypothesis is that the image is of clutter (grass) only, while the alternative is that the image contains a partially occluded (covered) land mine in addition to the clutter. In such a scenario, the occlusion pattern is unknown and has to be treated as a nuisance parameter. In a previous paper it was shown that deterministic treatment of the unknown occlusion pattern, in companion with the applied model, renders a substantial increase in detector performance as compared to employment of the traditional additive model. However, a deterministic assumption ignores possible correlation and additional gains could be possible by taking the spatial properties into account. In order to incorporate knowledge regarding the occlusion, the spatial distribution is characterized in terms of an underlying Markov Random Field (MRF) model. A major concern with MRF models is their complexity. Therefore, in addition to this, a less computationally demanding technique to accommodate the occlusion behavior is also proposed. The main purpose of this paper is to investigate if significant gains are possible by acknowledging the spatial dependence. Evaluation on data using real occluded targets however indicates that the gain seem to be marginal.

  10. Sustainable intermodal freight transportation: Applying the geospatial intermodal freight transport model (United States)

    Comer, Bryan

    To study the energy and environmental impacts of emissions associated with freight transportation, the Geospatial Intermodal Freight Transport (GIFT) model was created as a joint research collaborative between the Rochester Institute of Technology (RIT) and the University of Delaware (UD). The GIFT model is a Geographic Information Systems (GIS) based model that links the U.S. and Canadian water, rail, and road transportation networks through intermodal transfer facilities to create an intermodal network. The purpose of my thesis is to apply the GIFT model to examine potential public policies related to intermodal freight transportation in the Great Lakes region of the United States. My thesis will consist of two papers. The first paper will examine the environmental, economic, and time-of-delivery tradeoffs associated with freight transportation in the Great Lakes region and examine opportunities for marine vessels to replace a portion of heavy-duty trucks for containerized freight transport. The second paper will explore the potential benefits of using the Great Lakes as a corridor for short-sea shipping as part of a longer intermodal route. The intent of my thesis is to shed light on the current issues associated with freight transport in the Great Lakes region and present public policy alternatives to address said issues. Ideally, this thesis will better inform policymakers on the impacts and tradeoffs associated with freight transportation.


    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Natal’ya Yur’evna Gorbunova


    Full Text Available We described several aspects of organizing student research work, as well as solving a number of mathematical modeling problems: professionally-oriented, multi-stage, etc. We underlined the importance of their economic content. Samples of using such problems in teaching Mathematics at agricultural university were given. Several questions connected with information material selection and peculiarities of research problems application were described. Purpose. The author aims to show the possibility and necessity of using professionally-oriented problems of mathematical modeling in teaching Mathematics at agricultural university. The subject of analysis is including such problems into educational process. Methodology. The main research method is dialectical method of obtaining knowledge of finding approaches to selection, writing and using mathematical modeling and professionally-oriented problems in educational process; the methodology is study of these methods of obtaining knowledge. Results. As a result of analysis of literature, students opinions, observation of students work, and taking into account personal teaching experience, it is possible to make conclusion about importance of using mathematical modeling problems, as it helps to systemize theoretical knowledge, apply it to practice, raise students study motivation in engineering sphere. Practical implications. Results of the research can be of interest for teachers of Mathematics in preparing Bachelor and Master students of engineering departments of agricultural university both for theoretical research and for modernization of study courses.

  12. HESS Opinions "Should we apply bias correction to global and regional climate model data?"

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Liebert


    Full Text Available Despite considerable progress in recent years, output of both global and regional circulation models is still afflicted with biases to a degree that precludes its direct use, especially in climate change impact studies. This is well known, and to overcome this problem, bias correction (BC; i.e. the correction of model output towards observations in a post-processing step has now become a standard procedure in climate change impact studies. In this paper we argue that BC is currently often used in an invalid way: it is added to the GCM/RCM model chain without sufficient proof that the consistency of the latter (i.e. the agreement between model dynamics/model output and our judgement as well as the generality of its applicability increases. BC methods often impair the advantages of circulation models by altering spatiotemporal field consistency, relations among variables and by violating conservation principles. Currently used BC methods largely neglect feedback mechanisms, and it is unclear whether they are time-invariant under climate change conditions. Applying BC increases agreement of climate model output with observations in hindcasts and hence narrows the uncertainty range of simulations and predictions without, however, providing a satisfactory physical justification. This is in most cases not transparent to the end user. We argue that this hides rather than reduces uncertainty, which may lead to avoidable forejudging of end users and decision makers. We present here a brief overview of state-of-the-art bias correction methods, discuss the related assumptions and implications, draw conclusions on the validity of bias correction and propose ways to cope with biased output of circulation models in the short term and how to reduce the bias in the long term. The most promising strategy for improved future global and regional circulation model simulations is the increase in model resolution to the convection-permitting scale in combination with

  13. Summary of discrete fracture network modelling as applied to hydrogeology of the Forsmark and Laxemar sites

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hartley, Lee; Roberts, David


    The Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Company (SKB) is responsible for the development of a deep geological repository for spent nuclear fuel. The permitting of such a repository is informed by assessment studies to estimate the risks of the disposal method. One of the potential risks involves the transport of radionuclides in groundwater from defective canisters in the repository to the accessible environment. The Swedish programme for geological disposal of spent nuclear fuel has involved undertaking detailed surface-based site characterisation studies at two different sites, Forsmark and Laxemar-Simpevarp. A key component of the hydrogeological modelling of these two sites has been the development of Discrete Fracture Network (DFN) concepts of groundwater flow through the fractures in the crystalline rocks present. A discrete fracture network model represents some of the characteristics of fractures explicitly, such as their, orientation, intensity, size, spatial distribution, shape and transmissivity. This report summarises how the discrete fracture network methodology has been applied to model groundwater flow and transport at Forsmark and Laxemar. The account has involved summarising reports previously published by SKB between 2001 and 2011. The report describes the conceptual framework and assumptions used in interpreting site data, and in particular how data has been used to calibrate the various parameters that define the discrete fracture network representation of bedrock hydrogeology against borehole geologic and hydraulic data. Steps taken to confirm whether the developed discrete fracture network models provide a description of regional-scale groundwater flow and solute transport consistent with wider hydraulic tests hydrochemical data from Forsmark and Laxemar are discussed. It illustrates the use of derived hydrogeological DFN models in the simulations of the temperate period hydrogeology that provided input to radionuclide transport

  14. Linear and nonlinear stability analysis in BWRs applying a reduced order model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Olvera G, O. A.; Espinosa P, G.; Prieto G, A., E-mail: [Universidad Autonoma Metropolitana, Unidad Iztapalapa, San Rafael Atlixco No. 186, Col. Vicentina, 09340 Ciudad de Mexico (Mexico)


    Boiling Water Reactor (BWR) stability studies are generally conducted through nonlinear reduced order models (Rom) employing various techniques such as bifurcation analysis and time domain numerical integration. One of those models used for these studies is the March-Leuba Rom. Such model represents qualitatively the dynamic behavior of a BWR through a one-point reactor kinetics, a one node representation of the heat transfer process in fuel, and a two node representation of the channel Thermal hydraulics to account for the void reactivity feedback. Here, we study the effect of this higher order model on the overall stability of the BWR. The change in the stability boundaries is determined by evaluating the eigenvalues of the Jacobian matrix. The nonlinear model is also integrated numerically to show that in the nonlinear region, the system evolves to stable limit cycles when operating close to the stability boundary. We also applied a new technique based on the Empirical Mode Decomposition (Emd) to estimate a parameter linked with stability in a BWR. This instability parameter is not exactly the classical Decay Ratio (Dr), but it will be linked with it. The proposed method allows decomposing the analyzed signal in different levels or mono-component functions known as intrinsic mode functions (Imf). One or more of these different modes can be associated to the instability problem in BWRs. By tracking the instantaneous frequencies (calculated through Hilbert Huang Transform (HHT) and the autocorrelation function (Acf) of the Imf linked to instability. The estimation of the proposed parameter can be achieved. The current methodology was validated with simulated signals of the studied model. (Author)

  15. A model of directional selection applied to the evolution of drug resistance in HIV-1. (United States)

    Seoighe, Cathal; Ketwaroo, Farahnaz; Pillay, Visva; Scheffler, Konrad; Wood, Natasha; Duffet, Rodger; Zvelebil, Marketa; Martinson, Neil; McIntyre, James; Morris, Lynn; Hide, Winston


    Understanding how pathogens acquire resistance to drugs is important for the design of treatment strategies, particularly for rapidly evolving viruses such as HIV-1. Drug treatment can exert strong selective pressures and sites within targeted genes that confer resistance frequently evolve far more rapidly than the neutral rate. Rapid evolution at sites that confer resistance to drugs can be used to help elucidate the mechanisms of evolution of drug resistance and to discover or corroborate novel resistance mutations. We have implemented standard maximum likelihood methods that are used to detect diversifying selection and adapted them for use with serially sampled reverse transcriptase (RT) coding sequences isolated from a group of 300 HIV-1 subtype C-infected women before and after single-dose nevirapine (sdNVP) to prevent mother-to-child transmission. We have also extended the standard models of codon evolution for application to the detection of directional selection. Through simulation, we show that the directional selection model can provide a substantial improvement in sensitivity over models of diversifying selection. Five of the sites within the RT gene that are known to harbor mutations that confer resistance to nevirapine (NVP) strongly supported the directional selection model. There was no evidence that other mutations that are known to confer NVP resistance were selected in this cohort. The directional selection model, applied to serially sampled sequences, also had more power than the diversifying selection model to detect selection resulting from factors other than drug resistance. Because inference of selection from serial samples is unlikely to be adversely affected by recombination, the methods we describe may have general applicability to the analysis of positive selection affecting recombining coding sequences when serially sampled data are available.

  16. A microphysical model for fault gouge friction applied to subduction megathrusts (United States)

    Hartog, Sabine A. M.; Spiers, Christopher J.


    A microphysical model is developed for the steady state frictional behavior of illite-quartz fault gouge and applied to subduction megathrust P-T conditions. The model assumes a foliated, phyllosilicate-supported microstructure which shears by rate-independent frictional slip on the aligned phyllosilicates plus thermally activated deformation of the intervening quartz clasts. At low slip rates or high temperatures, the deformation of the clasts is easy, accommodating slip on the foliation without dilatation. With increasing velocity or decreasing temperature, the shear of the clasts becomes more difficult, increasing bulk shear strength, until slip is activated on inclined portions of the phyllosilicate foliation, where it anastomoses around the clasts. Slip at these sites leads to dilation involving clast/matrix debonding, balanced, at steady state, by compaction through thermally activated clast deformation. Model predictions, taking pressure solution as the thermally activated mechanism, show three regimes of velocity-dependent frictional behavior at temperatures in the range of 200-500°C, with velocity weakening occurring at 300-400°C, in broad agreement with previous experiments on illite-quartz gouge. Effects of slip rate, normal stress, and quartz fraction predicted by the model also resemble those seen experimentally. Extrapolation of the model to earthquake nucleation slip rates successfully predicts the onset of velocity-weakening behavior at the updip seismogenic limit on subduction megathrusts. The model further implies that the onset of seismogenesis is controlled by the thermally activated initiation of fault rock compaction through pressure solution of quartz, which counteracts dilatation due to slip on the fault rock foliation.

  17. Locally Applied Simvastatin Promotes Bone Formation in a Rat Model of Spinal Fusion. (United States)

    Ishihara, Toshinobu; Miyazaki, Masashi; Notani, Naoki; Kanezaki, Shozo; Kawano, Masanori; Tsumura, Hiroshi


    Simvastatin, an inexpensive lipid-lowering drug widely used to prevent cardiovascular disorders, is known to increase osteoblastic activity, inhibit osteoclastic activity, and stimulate osteoblastic production of bone morphogenetic protein 2. Furthermore, local simvastatin application increased bone formation in animal models of fracture or bone defects. We investigated the effect of locally applied simvastatin in a rat model of spinal fusion. We performed posterolateral lumbar fusion surgery with iliac crest autograft in 36 rats divided into group I (n = 17; implanted with a gelatin scaffold) and group II (n = 19; implanted with a gelatin scaffold infused with 0.5 mg simvastatin). The rats were euthanized at 6 or 12 weeks postoperatively, and the spines were explanted and assessed. The fusion rates in group II (16.7%: 6 weeks, 30%: 12 weeks) were considerably higher than those in groups I (0%: 6 weeks, 0%: 12 weeks). The 6- and 12-week radiographic scores were significantly higher in group II than in group I. High-resolution micro-computerized tomography revealed that the tissue and bone volumes of the callus tended to be higher in group II than in group I. Histologic analysis of the spines explanted after 12 weeks demonstrated new bone formation between the transverse processes in group II, but thicker and wider individual trabeculae with fibrotic tissue and muscle fiber between the transverse processes in group I. Locally applied simvastatin was efficacious in accelerating bone formation in our rat model of spinal fusion, supporting its potential clinical application as a promoter of bone morphogenesis in spinal fusion. © 2016 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. J Orthop Res 35:1942-1948, 2017. © 2016 Orthopaedic Research Society. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  18. HPAC (Hazard Prediction and Assessment Capability) jSWAT (Joint Seminar Wargaming Adjudication Tool) Integration; A Technical Solution (United States)


    Tool is an LOD developed software package (programmed in Java) that aims to facilitate the seminar wargaming process that Army currently uses to...For display, the jSWAT package name has been truncated from “com.classforge.jswat”. Similarly, the actual client and server classes...The above example places a sulphur hexafluoride sensor in the continental US. To place Sarin samplers on Kangaroo Island we might use the

  19. Watershed-scale modeling on the fate and transport of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ligaray, Mayzonee; Baek, Sang Soo [School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, UNIST-gil 50, Ulsan 44919 (Korea, Republic of); Kwon, Hye-Ok [Disaster Scientific Investigation Division, National Disaster Management Research Institute, 365 Jongga-ro Jung-gu, Ulsan 44538 (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Sung-Deuk, E-mail: [School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, UNIST-gil 50, Ulsan 44919 (Korea, Republic of); Cho, Kyung Hwa, E-mail: [School of Urban and Environmental Engineering, Ulsan National Institute of Science and Technology, UNIST-gil 50, Ulsan 44919 (Korea, Republic of)


    PAHs are potentially carcinogenic substances that are persistent in the environment. Increasing concentrations of PAHs were observed due to rapid urbanization, thus; monitoring PAHs concentrations is necessary. However, it is expensive to conduct intensive monitoring activities of a large number of PAHs. This study addressed this issue by developing a multimedia model coupled with a hydrological model (i.e., Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)) for Taehwa River (TR) watershed in Ulsan, the industrial capital of South Korea. The hydrologic module of the SWAT was calibrated, and further used to simulate the fate and transport of PAHs in soil and waterbody. The model demonstrated that the temporal or seasonal variation of PAHs in soil and waterbody can be well reproduced. Meanwhile, the spatial distribution of PAHs showed that urban areas in TR watershed have the highest PAH loadings compared to rural areas. Sensitivity analyses of the PAH soil and PAH water parameters were also able to determine the critical processes in TR watershed: degradation, deposition, volatilization, and wash off mechanism. We hope that this model will be able to aid the stakeholders in: regulating PAH concentrations emitted by various sources; and also apply the model to other Persistent Organic Pollutants (POPs).

  20. Embedding chiropractic in Indigenous Health Care Organisations: applying the normalisation process model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Polus Barbara I


    Full Text Available Abstract Background Improving the health of Indigenous Australians remains a major challenge. A chiropractic service was established to evaluate this treatment option for musculoskeletal illness in rural Indigenous communities, based on the philosophy of keeping the community involved in all the phases of development, implementation, and evaluation. The development and integration of this service has experienced many difficulties with referrals, funding and building sustainability. Evaluation of the program was a key aspect of its implementation, requiring an appropriate process to identify specific problems and formulate solutions to improve the service. Methods We used the normalisation process model (May 2006 to order the data collected in consultation meetings and to inform our strategy and actions. The normalisation process model provided us with a structure for organising consultation meeting data and helped prioritise tasks. Our data was analysed as it applied to each dimension of the model, noting aspects that the model did not encompass. During this process we reworded the dimensions into more everyday terminology. The final analysis focused on to what extent the model helped us to prioritise and systematise our tasks and plans. Results We used the model to consider ways to promote the chiropractic service, to enhance relationships and interactions between clinicians and procedures within the health service, and to avoid disruption of the existing service. We identified ways in which chiropractors can become trusted team members who have acceptable and recognised knowledge and skills. We also developed strategies that should result in chiropractic practitioners finding a place within a complex occupational web, by being seen as similar to well-known occupations such as physiotherapy. Interestingly, one dimension identified by our data, which we have labelled ‘emancipatory’, was absent from the model. Conclusions The normalisation

  1. Embedding chiropractic in Indigenous Health Care Organisations: applying the normalisation process model. (United States)

    Polus, Barbara I; Paterson, Charlotte; van Rotterdam, Joan; Vindigni, Dein


    Improving the health of Indigenous Australians remains a major challenge. A chiropractic service was established to evaluate this treatment option for musculoskeletal illness in rural Indigenous communities, based on the philosophy of keeping the community involved in all the phases of development, implementation, and evaluation. The development and integration of this service has experienced many difficulties with referrals, funding and building sustainability. Evaluation of the program was a key aspect of its implementation, requiring an appropriate process to identify specific problems and formulate solutions to improve the service. We used the normalisation process model (May 2006) to order the data collected in consultation meetings and to inform our strategy and actions. The normalisation process model provided us with a structure for organising consultation meeting data and helped prioritise tasks. Our data was analysed as it applied to each dimension of the model, noting aspects that the model did not encompass. During this process we reworded the dimensions into more everyday terminology. The final analysis focused on to what extent the model helped us to prioritise and systematise our tasks and plans. We used the model to consider ways to promote the chiropractic service, to enhance relationships and interactions between clinicians and procedures within the health service, and to avoid disruption of the existing service. We identified ways in which chiropractors can become trusted team members who have acceptable and recognised knowledge and skills. We also developed strategies that should result in chiropractic practitioners finding a place within a complex occupational web, by being seen as similar to well-known occupations such as physiotherapy. Interestingly, one dimension identified by our data, which we have labelled 'emancipatory', was absent from the model. The normalisation process model has resulted in a number of new insights and questions. We

  2. Effect of farmyard manure, mineral fertilizers and mung bean residues on some microbiological properties of eroded soil in district Swat

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Naeem


    Full Text Available The present study was conducted to evaluate the efficacy of organic and inorganic fertilizers and mung bean residues on improving microbiological properties of eroded lands of District Swat, North West Frontier Province (NWFP Pakistan under wheat-mung bean-wheat cropping system during 2006 to 2008. The experiment was laid out in RCBD split-plot arrangement. Mung bean was grown and a basal dose of 25-60 kg N-P2O5 ha-1 was applied. After mung bean harvest, three residues management practices, i.e., R+ (mung bean residues incorporated into soil, R- (mung bean residues removed and F (fallow were performed in the main-plots. Sub-plot factor consisted of six fertilizer treatments for wheat crop i.e., T1 (control, T2 (120 kg N ha-1, T3 (120-90-0 kg N-P2O5-K2O ha-1, T4 (120-90-60 kg N-P2O5-K2O ha-1, T5 (90-90-60 kg N-P2O5-K2O + 10 t FYM ha-1 and T6 (60-90-60 kg N-P2O5- K2O + 20 t FYM ha-1. The results showed that microbial activity, microbial biomass-C and-N, mineralizable C and N were highest with T6 as well as with the incorporation of mung bean residues (R+. Compared with control, T6 increased microbial biomass C, N, mineralizable C and N by 33.8, 164.1, 35.5 and 110.6% at surface and 38.4, 237.5, 38.7 and 124.1% at sub-surface soil, respectively, while R+ compared with fallow increased these properties by 33.7, 47.4, 21.4 and 32.2% at surface and 36.8, 51, 21.9 and 35.4% at sub-surface soil, respectively. Inclusion of mung bean with its residues incorporated and application of 20 t FYM ha-1 and reducing inorganic N fertilizer to 60 kg N ha-1 for wheat is recommended for improving microbiological properties of slightly eroded lands

  3. Predicting regional recovery from acidification; the MAGIC model applied to Scotland, England and Wales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. D. Evans


    Full Text Available A dynamic, process-based model of surface water acidification, MAGIC, has been applied to over a thousand sites across the UK. The model is calibrated to surface water samples collected during a survey for the Critical Loads programme, and utilises the best available and consistent estimates of soil physical and chemical properties, rainfall and runoff volumes, and deposition chemistry. A total of 698 sites were calibrated successfully. At these sites, surface water chemistry was reconstructed from 1850 to the present day, and forecast to 2050 based on future decreases in sulphur (S deposition in response to the Second S Protocol. Model outputs capture distinct regional patterns of acidification and recovery. the most acidic present-day conditions are found in acid-sensitive regions of Northern England (the Pennines, Lake District and North York Moors. Although a significant proportion of sites in these areas failed to calibrate, those that did are predicted to have experienced severe historic decreases in acidic neutralising capacity (ANC in response to high levels of acidic deposition. The model also indicates significant acidification in the moderate deposition areas of Wales and Galloway, whereas in the low deposition region of northern Scotland, acidification has been minor even in areas of acid-sensitive geology. ANC is forecast to recover at virtually all sites, with the greatest recovery predicted for areas currently subject to high deposition. The model indicates that the Second S Protocol, however, will not be sufficient to produce full recovery, with average ANC increases to 2050 counteracting just 27% of the simulated decline from 1850 to present day. Acidic conditions (ANC < 0 are predicted to persist until 2050 at a significant number of sites in Northern England, Wales and Galloway.

  4. A model to Estimate the Implicit Values of Housing Attributes by Applying the Hedonic Pricing Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    TD Randeniya


    Full Text Available Many scholars focused on the location based attributes rather than the non-location factors in decision making on land prices. Further, new research studies have identified the importance of the non-location attributes with the location factors. Many studies suggest that, many attributes exist which affects the housing price. Since the attributes involved and dominant for a particular case differs from one situation to the other, there cannot be an exact list of attributes. Yet, identification of factors that determine housing price and their relationships and the level of influence have poorly understood in planning and property development in the context of Sri Lanka. This study attempts to address what make householders to decide on housing price and application of hedonic pricing approach to estimate the implicit price of housing attributes in context of Sri Lanka. A sample study of selected fifty (50 single house transactions in Maharagama urban neighborhood area has been utilized to illustrate the applicability of the hedonic pricing model. As a methodology, correlation analysis has been carried out to study the degree of relationship between the housing price and the independent variables. The attributes which correlate with housing prices, the study identified the most significant attributes. A model was developed to estimate the future house price by applying the pricing model which is incorporated with these attributes. A hedonic house price model derived from multiple liner regression analysis was developed for the purpose. The findings reveal that six attributes as design type of the house, distance to the local road, quality of Infrastructure, garden size, number of the bed rooms and property age are contributed to estimate the implicit value of Housing property. The model developed would be used to identify implicit values of houses located in urban neighborhood area of Sri Lanka.

  5. The RESET Mindset Model applied on decreasing antibiotic usage in dairy cattle in the Netherlands. (United States)

    Lam, T J G M; Jansen, J; Wessels, R J


    cooperation between the most important stakeholders in the dairy chain, taking communication seriously and applying the RESET Mindset Model.

  6. Bayesian network modeling applied to coastal geomorphology: lessons learned from a decade of experimentation and application (United States)

    Plant, N. G.; Thieler, E. R.; Gutierrez, B.; Lentz, E. E.; Zeigler, S. L.; Van Dongeren, A.; Fienen, M. N.


    We evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of Bayesian networks that have been used to address scientific and decision-support questions related to coastal geomorphology. We will provide an overview of coastal geomorphology research that has used Bayesian networks and describe what this approach can do and when it works (or fails to work). Over the past decade, Bayesian networks have been formulated to analyze the multi-variate structure and evolution of coastal morphology and associated human and ecological impacts. The approach relates observable system variables to each other by estimating discrete correlations. The resulting Bayesian-networks make predictions that propagate errors, conduct inference via Bayes rule, or both. In scientific applications, the model results are useful for hypothesis testing, using confidence estimates to gage the strength of tests while applications to coastal resource management are aimed at decision-support, where the probabilities of desired ecosystems outcomes are evaluated. The range of Bayesian-network applications to coastal morphology includes emulation of high-resolution wave transformation models to make oceanographic predictions, morphologic response to storms and/or sea-level rise, groundwater response to sea-level rise and morphologic variability, habitat suitability for endangered species, and assessment of monetary or human-life risk associated with storms. All of these examples are based on vast observational data sets, numerical model output, or both. We will discuss the progression of our experiments, which has included testing whether the Bayesian-network approach can be implemented and is appropriate for addressing basic and applied scientific problems and evaluating the hindcast and forecast skill of these implementations. We will present and discuss calibration/validation tests that are used to assess the robustness of Bayesian-network models and we will compare these results to tests of other models. This will

  7. A Thrombus Generation Model Applied to Aneurysms Treated with Shape Memory Polymer Foam and Metal Coils (United States)

    Horn, John; Ortega, Jason; Hartman, Jonathan; Maitland, Duncan


    To prevent their rupture, intracranial aneurysms are often treated with endovascular metal coils which fill the aneurysm sac and isolate it from the arterial flow. Despite its widespread use, this method can result in suboptimal outcomes leading to aneurysm recurrence. Recently, shape memory polymer foam has been proposed as an alternative aneurysm filler. In this work, a computational model has been developed to predict thrombus formation in blood in response to such cardiovascular implantable devices. The model couples biofluid and biochemical phenomena present as the blood interacts with a device and stimulates thrombus formation. This model is applied to simulations of both metal coil and shape memory polymer foam treatments within an idealized 2D aneurysm geometry. Using the predicted thrombus responses, the performance of these treatments is evaluated and compared. The results suggest that foam-treated aneurysms may fill more quickly and more completely with thrombus than coil-filled aneurysms, potentially leading to improved long-term aneurysm healing. This work was performed in part under the auspices of the U.S. Department of Energy by Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory under Contract DE-AC52-07NA27344.

  8. A Nonlinear Multiparameters Temperature Error Modeling and Compensation of POS Applied in Airborne Remote Sensing System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianli Li


    Full Text Available The position and orientation system (POS is a key equipment for airborne remote sensing systems, which provides high-precision position, velocity, and attitude information for various imaging payloads. Temperature error is the main source that affects the precision of POS. Traditional temperature error model is single temperature parameter linear function, which is not sufficient for the higher accuracy requirement of POS. The traditional compensation method based on neural network faces great problem in the repeatability error under different temperature conditions. In order to improve the precision and generalization ability of the temperature error compensation for POS, a nonlinear multiparameters temperature error modeling and compensation method based on Bayesian regularization neural network was proposed. The temperature error of POS was analyzed and a nonlinear multiparameters model was established. Bayesian regularization method was used as the evaluation criterion, which further optimized the coefficients of the temperature error. The experimental results show that the proposed method can improve temperature environmental adaptability and precision. The developed POS had been successfully applied in airborne TSMFTIS remote sensing system for the first time, which improved the accuracy of the reconstructed spectrum by 47.99%.

  9. Applying Data Envelopment Analysis and Grey Model for the Productivity Evaluation of Vietnamese Agroforestry Industry

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chia-Nan Wang


    Full Text Available Agriculture and forestry play important roles in Vietnam, particularly as they contribute to the creation of food, conservation of forest resources, and improvement of soil fertility. Therefore, understanding the performances of relevant enterprises in this field contributes to the sustainable development of this country’s agroforestry industry. This research proposes a hybrid model, which includes a grey model (GM and a Malmquist productivity index (MPI, to assess the performances of Vietnamese agroforestry enterprises over several time periods. After collecting the data of selected input and output variables for 10 Vietnam agroforestry enterprises in the period of 2011–2014, GM is used to forecast the future values of these input and output variables for the 10 agroforestry enterprises in 2015 and 2016. Following the results of GM, the MPI is used to measure the performance of these enterprises. The MPI scores showed some enterprises will become more efficient, while others will become less efficient. The proposed model gives past–present–future insights in order for decision-makers to sustain agroforestry development in Vietnam. This hybrid approach can be applied to performance analysis of other industries as well.

  10. The applied model of imagery use: Examination of moderation and mediation effects. (United States)

    Koehn, S; Stavrou, N A M; Young, J A; Morris, T


    The applied model of mental imagery use proposed an interaction effect between imagery type and imagery ability. This study had two aims: (a) the examination of imagery ability as a moderating variable between imagery type and dispositional flow, and (b) the testing of alternative mediation models. The sample consisted of 367 athletes from Scotland and Australia, who completed the Sport Imagery Questionnaire, Sport Imagery Ability Questionnaire, and Dispositional Flow Scale-2. Hierarchical regression analysis showed direct effects of imagery use and imagery ability on flow, but no significant interaction. Mediation analysis revealed a significant indirect path, indicating a partially mediated relationship (P = 0.002) between imagery use, imagery ability, and flow. Partial mediation was confirmed when the effect of cognitive imagery use and cognitive imagery ability was tested, and a full mediation model was found between motivational imagery use, motivational imagery ability, and flow. The results are discussed in conjunction with potential future research directions on advancing theory and applications. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  11. Work environment antecedents of bullying: A review and integrative model applied to registered nurses. (United States)

    Trépanier, Sarah-Geneviève; Fernet, Claude; Austin, Stéphanie; Boudrias, Valérie


    This review paper provides an overview of the current state of knowledge on work environment antecedents of workplace bullying and proposes an integrative model of bullying applied to registered nurses. A literature search was conducted on the databases PsycInfo, ProQuest, and CINAHL. Included in this review were empirical studies pertaining to work-related antecedents of workplace bullying in nurses. A total of 12 articles were maintained in the review. An examination of these articles highlights four main categories of work-related antecedents of workplace bullying: job characteristics, quality of interpersonal relationships, leadership styles, and organizational culture. A conceptual model depicting the interplay between these factors in relation to bullying is also presented. Suggestions regarding other factors to incorporate within the model (e.g., individual factors, outcomes of bullying) are provided to increase our understanding of bullying in registered nurses. This paper hopes to guide future efforts in order to effectively prevent and/or address this problem and ultimately ensure patient safety and quality of care provided by health care organizations. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Tetrahedral node for Transmission-Line Modeling (TLM) applied to Bio-heat Transfer. (United States)

    Milan, Hugo F M; Gebremedhin, Kifle G


    Transmission-Line Modeling (TLM) is a numerical method used to solve complex and time-domain bio-heat transfer problems. In TLM, parallelepipeds are used to discretize three-dimensional problems. The drawback in using parallelepiped shapes is that instead of refining only the domain of interest, a large additional domain would also have to be refined, which results in increased computational time and memory space. In this paper, we developed a tetrahedral node for TLM applied to bio-heat transfer that does not have the drawback associated with the parallelepiped node. The model includes heat source, blood perfusion, boundary conditions and initial conditions. The boundary conditions could be adiabatic, temperature, heat flux, or convection. The predicted temperature and heat flux were compared against results from an analytical solution and the results agreed within 2% for a mesh size of 69,941 nodes and a time step of 5ms. The method was further validated against published results of maximum skin-surface temperature difference in a breast with and without tumor and the results agreed within 6%. The published results were obtained from a model that used parallelepiped TLM node. An open source software, TLMBHT, was written using the theory developed herein and is available for download free-of-charge. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Applying Biometric Growth Curve Models to Developmental Synchronies in Cognitive Development: The Louisville Twin Study. (United States)

    Finkel, Deborah; Davis, Deborah Winders; Turkheimer, Eric; Dickens, William T


    Biometric latent growth curve models were applied to data from the LTS in order to replicate and extend Wilson's (Child Dev 54:298-316, 1983) findings. Assessments of cognitive development were available from 8 measurement occasions covering the period 4-15 years for 1032 individuals. Latent growth curve models were fit to percent correct for 7 subscales: information, similarities, arithmetic, vocabulary, comprehension, picture completion, and block design. Models were fit separately to WPPSI (ages 4-6 years) and WISC-R (ages 7-15). Results indicated the expected increases in heritability in younger childhood, and plateaus in heritability as children reached age 10 years. Heritability of change, per se (slope estimates), varied dramatically across domains. Significant genetic influences on slope parameters that were independent of initial levels of performance were found for only information and picture completion subscales. Thus evidence for both genetic continuity and genetic innovation in the development of cognitive abilities in childhood were found.

  14. Trade-offs and coexistence: a lottery model applied to fig wasp communities. (United States)

    Duthie, A Bradley; Abbott, Karen C; Nason, John D


    Ecological communities in which organisms complete their life cycles on discrete ephemeral patches are common and often support an unusually large number of species. Explaining this diversity is challenging for communities of ecologically similar species undergoing preemptive competition, where classic coexistence mechanisms may not readily apply. We use nonpollinating fig wasps as a model community characterized by high diversity and preemptive competition to show how subadditive population growth and a trade-off between competitor fecundity and dispersal ability can lead to coexistence. Because nonpollinator species are often closely related, have similar life histories, and compete for the same discrete resources, understanding their coexistence is challenging given competitive exclusion is expected. Empirical observations suggest that nonpollinating fig wasp species may face a trade-off between egg loads and dispersal abilities. We model a lottery in which a species' competitive ability is determined by a trade-off between fecundity and dispersal ability. Variation in interpatch distance between figs generates temporal variability in the relative benefit of fecundity versus dispersal. We show that the temporal storage effect leads to coexistence for a range of biologically realistic parameter values. We further use individual-based modeling to show that when species' traits evolve, coexistence is less likely but trait divergence can result. We discuss the implications of this coexistence mechanism for ephemeral patch systems wherein competition is strongly preemptive.

  15. Quantum correlated cluster mean-field theory applied to the transverse Ising model. (United States)

    Zimmer, F M; Schmidt, M; Maziero, Jonas


    Mean-field theory (MFT) is one of the main available tools for analytical calculations entailed in investigations regarding many-body systems. Recently, there has been a surge of interest in ameliorating this kind of method, mainly with the aim of incorporating geometric and correlation properties of these systems. The correlated cluster MFT (CCMFT) is an improvement that succeeded quite well in doing that for classical spin systems. Nevertheless, even the CCMFT presents some deficiencies when applied to quantum systems. In this article, we address this issue by proposing the quantum CCMFT (QCCMFT), which, in contrast to its former approach, uses general quantum states in its self-consistent mean-field equations. We apply the introduced QCCMFT to the transverse Ising model in honeycomb, square, and simple cubic lattices and obtain fairly good results both for the Curie temperature of thermal phase transition and for the critical field of quantum phase transition. Actually, our results match those obtained via exact solutions, series expansions or Monte Carlo simulations.

  16. A modeling of radiation induced microstructural evolution under applied stress in austenitic alloys

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tanigawa, Hiroyasu; Kohyama, Akira [Kyoto Univ., Uji (Japan). Inst. of Advanced Energy; Katoh, Yutai; Kohno, Yutaka


    Effects of applied stress on interstitial type Frank loop evolution at early stages of irradiation were investigated by both numerical calculation and irradiation experiments. In the experimental part of this work, microstructural inspection has been made by transmission electron microscopy with a special emphasis on Frank loops and perfect loops on every {l_brace}111{r_brace} plane. The results of the TEM observation revealed that Frank loop concentration on a {l_brace}111{r_brace} plane increased as the resolved normal stress to a {l_brace}111{r_brace} plane increased and that small perfect loops were more likely produced on {l_brace}111{r_brace} planes where larger resolved shear stress was applied. The model of a stress effect on Frank loop unfaulting was provided, which is triggered by nucleation of a Shockley partial dislocation loop in a Frank loop, was proposed. The results of the numerical calculation was successful to predict the strong dependence of Frank loop concentration on the resolved normal stress to {l_brace}111{r_brace} plane, which was the characteristic feature seen in the irradiation experiments. (author)

  17. Couples and pairs formation—thermodynamic and kinetic modelling applied to Al-Mg-Si (United States)

    Svoboda, J.; Shan, Y. V.; Kozeschnik, E.; Fischer, F. D.


    Kinetics of formation of couples (B-C) and pairs (B-B, C-C) is studied in an alloy with B-atoms and C-atoms as dilute solutes and A-atoms as solvent. The trapping concept, allowing division of the system into subsystems, the Bragg-Williams approximation used for the configurational entropy of each subsystem, and the thermodynamic extremal principle are applied in the model. The derived equilibrium conditions provide an extended Oriani-type equation. The kinetics of couples and pairs formation is given by explicit ordinary differential equations for the concentrations of couples and pairs allowing calculation of all relevant state variables. The concept is applied to an Al-Mg-Si system with the bonding energy terms E BB , E CC , E BC taken from ab-initio calculations. The presence of excess vacancies that are eventually frozen in by instant quenching as well as their subsequent annihilation influence the formation kinetics in a decisive way.

  18. Knowledge Creation and Conversion in Military Organizations: How the SECI Model is Applied Within Armed Forces

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrzej Lis


    Full Text Available The aim of the paper is to analyze the knowledge creation and conversion processes in military organizations using the SECI model as a framework. First of all, knowledge creation activities in military organizations are identified and categorized. Then, knowledge socialization, externalization, combination and internalization processes are analyzed. The paper studies methods, techniques and tools applied by NATO and the U.S. Army to support the aforementioned processes. As regards the issue of knowledge socialization, counseling, coaching, mentoring and communities of practice are discussed. Lessons Learned systems and After Action Reviews illustrate the military approaches to knowledge externalization. Producing doctrines in the process of operational standardization is presented as a solution used by the military to combine knowledge in order to codify it. Finally, knowledge internalization through training and education is explored.

  19. Structural-functional model of medical students’ professional-applied physical training

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A.V. Petryshyn


    Full Text Available Purpose: to work out and experimentally prove model of professional-applied physical training of medical higher educational establishments’ students. Material: in the research 80 students participated. In questioning physical education instructors of medical higher education establishments (n=20 participated. Results: influence of students’ professionally important characteristics on general physical fitness indicators and functional state has been shown. Directions of students’ physical fitness parameters’ individual diagnostic and control over physical education effectiveness have been offered. Volumes of physical exercises in the structure of training have been found: special training (15-20% and competition exercises (20-30%. Conclusions: the need in raising the level of professionally important for students’ abilities has been noted: speed power, static power endurance, power endurance, coordination of arms’ movements, static balance.

  20. [Methodological novelties applied to the anthropology of food: agent-based models and social networks analysis]. (United States)

    Díaz Córdova, Diego


    The aim of this article is to introduce two methodological strategies that have not often been utilized in the anthropology of food: agent-based models and social networks analysis. In order to illustrate these methods in action, two cases based in materials typical of the anthropology of food are presented. For the first strategy, fieldwork carried out in Quebrada de Humahuaca (province of Jujuy, Argentina) regarding meal recall was used, and for the second, elements of the concept of "domestic consumption strategies" applied by Aguirre were employed. The underlying idea is that, given that eating is recognized as a "total social fact" and, therefore, as a complex phenomenon, the methodological approach must also be characterized by complexity. The greater the number of methods utilized (with the appropriate rigor), the better able we will be to understand the dynamics of feeding in the social environment.

  1. Functional analysis and applied optimization in Banach spaces applications to non-convex variational models

    CERN Document Server

    Botelho, Fabio


    This book introduces the basic concepts of real and functional analysis. It presents the fundamentals of the calculus of variations, convex analysis, duality, and optimization that are necessary to develop applications to physics and engineering problems. The book includes introductory and advanced concepts in measure and integration, as well as an introduction to Sobolev spaces. The problems presented are nonlinear, with non-convex variational formulation. Notably, the primal global minima may not be attained in some situations, in which cases the solution of the dual problem corresponds to an appropriate weak cluster point of minimizing sequences for the primal one. Indeed, the dual approach more readily facilitates numerical computations for some of the selected models. While intended primarily for applied mathematicians, the text will also be of interest to engineers, physicists, and other researchers in related fields.

  2. Nonlinear Model-Based Predictive Control applied to Large Scale Cryogenic Facilities

    CERN Document Server

    Blanco Vinuela, Enrique; de Prada Moraga, Cesar


    The thesis addresses the study, analysis, development, and finally the real implementation of an advanced control system for the 1.8 K Cooling Loop of the LHC (Large Hadron Collider) accelerator. The LHC is the next accelerator being built at CERN (European Center for Nuclear Research), it will use superconducting magnets operating below a temperature of 1.9 K along a circumference of 27 kilometers. The temperature of these magnets is a control parameter with strict operating constraints. The first control implementations applied a procedure that included linear identification, modelling and regulation using a linear predictive controller. It did improve largely the overall performance of the plant with respect to a classical PID regulator, but the nature of the cryogenic processes pointed out the need of a more adequate technique, such as a nonlinear methodology. This thesis is a first step to develop a global regulation strategy for the overall control of the LHC cells when they will operate simultaneously....

  3. Residential Demand Response Behaviour Modeling applied to Cyber-physical Intrusion Detection

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Heussen, Kai; Tyge, Emil; Kosek, Anna Magdalena


    be identified and how the characterization can be updated continuously. Finally, we propose an approach to apply this behaviour characterization to the identification of anomalous and potentially malicious behaviour modifications as part of a cyber-physical intrusion detection mechanism.......A real-time demand response system can be viewed as a cyber-physical system, with physical systems dependent on cyber infrastructure for coordination and control, which may be vulnerable to cyber-attacks. The time domain dynamic behaviour of individual residential demand responses is governed...... by a mix of physical system parameters, exogenous influences, user behaviour and preferences, which can be characterized by unstructured models such as a time-varying finite impulse response. In this study, which is based on field data, it is shown how this characteristic response behaviours can...

  4. Higher Order, Hybrid BEM/FEM Methods Applied to Antenna Modeling (United States)

    Fink, P. W.; Wilton, D. R.; Dobbins, J. A.


    In this presentation, the authors address topics relevant to higher order modeling using hybrid BEM/FEM formulations. The first of these is the limitation on convergence rates imposed by geometric modeling errors in the analysis of scattering by a dielectric sphere. The second topic is the application of an Incomplete LU Threshold (ILUT) preconditioner to solve the linear system resulting from the BEM/FEM formulation. The final tOpic is the application of the higher order BEM/FEM formulation to antenna modeling problems. The authors have previously presented work on the benefits of higher order modeling. To achieve these benefits, special attention is required in the integration of singular and near-singular terms arising in the surface integral equation. Several methods for handling these terms have been presented. It is also well known that achieving he high rates of convergence afforded by higher order bases may als'o require the employment of higher order geometry models. A number of publications have described the use of quadratic elements to model curved surfaces. The authors have shown in an EFIE formulation, applied to scattering by a PEC .sphere, that quadratic order elements may be insufficient to prevent the domination of modeling errors. In fact, on a PEC sphere with radius r = 0.58 Lambda(sub 0), a quartic order geometry representation was required to obtain a convergence benefi.t from quadratic bases when compared to the convergence rate achieved with linear bases. Initial trials indicate that, for a dielectric sphere of the same radius, - requirements on the geometry model are not as severe as for the PEC sphere. The authors will present convergence results for higher order bases as a function of the geometry model order in the hybrid BEM/FEM formulation applied to dielectric spheres. It is well known that the system matrix resulting from the hybrid BEM/FEM formulation is ill -conditioned. For many real applications, a good preconditioner is required

  5. Applying Meta-Modeling for the Definition of Model-Driven Development Methods of Advanced User Interfaces (United States)

    Sauer, Stefan

    The user interfaces of interactive systems become increasingly complex due to new interaction paradigms, required adaptability, use of innovative technologies, multi-media and interaction modalities. Their development thus demands for sophisticated processes and methods, as they are deployed in software engineering. Model-driven development is a promising candidate for mastering the complex development task in a systematic, precise and appropriately formal way. Although diverse models of advanced user interfaces are deployed in a development process to specify, design and implement the user interface, it is not standardized which models to use, how to combine them, and how to proceed in the course of development. Rather, this has to be defined by methods in the context of organizations, domains, projects. To cope with the definition of model-driven development methods for advanced user interfaces, we propose a meta-method for method engineering. It can be used for modeling and tailoring such development methods. We show how to apply this meta-method for designing development methods in the domain of advanced user interfaces.

  6. Integrating field and numerical modeling methods for applied urban karst hydrogeology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Romanov


    Full Text Available Infrastructures constructed on unstable geologic formations are prone to subsidence. Data have been collected in the context of an upgrading project for a highway located beside a river dam constructed on gypsum-bearing formations. Surface water infiltrates upstream of the dam, circulates through the gravel deposits and into the weathered bedrock around and beneath the dam, and exfiltrates downstream into the river. As a result, an extended weathering zone within the bedrock and preferential flow paths within voids and conduits developed as part of a rapidly evolving karst system. Enhanced karstification in the soluble units of the gypsum-bearing formations resulted in subsidence of the dam and the highway.

    Since 2006, changes in the groundwater flow regime have been investigated by different methods that allowed the evaluation of the long-term performance of the infrastructures. Geological (outcrops, lithostratigraphic information from boreholes, hydrometrical (extensive groundwater monitoring, dye tracer tests and hydrogeophysical (Electrical Resistivity Tomography, ERT data were integrated into high-resolution 3-D hydrogeological and 2-D karst evolution models. The applied methods are validated and the sensitivity of relevant parameters governing the processes determined.

    It could be demonstrated that the applied methods for karst aquifer characterization complement each other. Short-term impacts and long-term developments on system-dynamics and the flow regime could be evaluated. This includes the description of the transient character of the flow regime during and after episodic flood events (surface-groundwater interaction, conduit and diffuse model outflow as well as the evaluation of time scales for karst evolution. Results allow the optimization of investigation methods for similar subsidence problems, ranging from general measurements and monitoring technologies to tools with predictive utility.

  7. Applied Macroeconomics

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Heijman, W.J.M.


    This book contains a course in applied macroeconomics. Macroeconomic theory is applied to real world cases. Students are expected to compute model results with the help of a spreadsheet program. To that end the book also contains descriptions of the spreadsheet applications used, such as linear

  8. A Comprehensive Entomological, Serological and Molecular Study of 2013 Dengue Outbreak of Swat, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jehangir Khan

    Full Text Available Aedes aegypti and Aedes albopictus play a fundamental role in transmission of dengue virus to humans. A single infected Aedes mosquito is capable to act as a reservoir/amplifier host for dengue virus and may cause epidemics via horizontal and vertical modes of dengue virus (DENV transmission. The present and future dengue development can be clarified by understanding the elements which help the dissemination of dengue transmission. The current study deals with molecular surveillance of dengue in addition to ecological and social context of 2013 dengue epidemics in Swat, Pakistan.Herein, we reported dengue vectors surveillance in domestic and peridomistic containers in public and private places in 7 dengue epidemic-prone sites in District Swat, Pakistan from July to November 2013. Using the Flaviviruses genus-specific reverse transcriptase (RT semi nested-PCR assay, we screened blood samples (N = 500 of dengue positive patients, 150 adult mosquito pools and 25 larval pools.The 34 adult and 7 larval mosquito pools were found positive. The adult positive pools comprised 30 pools of Ae. aegypti and 4 pools of Ae. albopictus, while among the 7 larval pools, 5 pools of Ae. aegypti and 2 pools of Ae. albopictus were positive. The detected putative genomes of dengue virus were of DENV-2 (35% in 14 mosquito pools & 39% in serum and DENV-3 (65% in 27 mosquito pools & 61% in serum. The higher vector density and dengue transmission rate was recorded in July and August (due to favorable conditions for vector growth. About 37% of Ae. aegpti and 34% Ae. albopictus mosquitoes were collected from stagnant water in drums, followed by drinking water tanks (23% & 26%, tires (20% & 18% and discarded containers (10% & 6%. Among the surveyed areas, Saidu was heavily affected (26% by dengue followed by Kanju (20% and Landikas (12%. The maximum infection was observed in the age group of 45 (25% years and was more in males (55.3% as compare to females (44.7%. The

  9. Soil and Water Assessment Tool model predictions of annual maximum pesticide concentrations in high vulnerability watersheds. (United States)

    Winchell, Michael F; Peranginangin, Natalia; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Chen, Wenlin


    Recent national regulatory assessments of potential pesticide exposure of threatened and endangered species in aquatic habitats have led to increased need for watershed-scale predictions of pesticide concentrations in flowing water bodies. This study was conducted to assess the ability of the uncalibrated Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations in the flowing water bodies of highly vulnerable small- to medium-sized watersheds. The SWAT was applied to 27 watersheds, largely within the midwest corn belt of the United States, ranging from 20 to 386 km2 , and evaluated using consistent input data sets and an uncalibrated parameterization approach. The watersheds were selected from the Atrazine Ecological Exposure Monitoring Program and the Heidelberg Tributary Loading Program, both of which contain high temporal resolution atrazine sampling data from watersheds with exceptionally high vulnerability to atrazine exposure. The model performance was assessed based upon predictions of annual maximum atrazine concentrations in 1-d and 60-d durations, predictions critical in pesticide-threatened and endangered species risk assessments when evaluating potential acute and chronic exposure to aquatic organisms. The simulation results showed that for nearly half of the watersheds simulated, the uncalibrated SWAT model was able to predict annual maximum pesticide concentrations within a narrow range of uncertainty resulting from atrazine application timing patterns. An uncalibrated model's predictive performance is essential for the assessment of pesticide exposure in flowing water bodies, the majority of which have insufficient monitoring data for direct calibration, even in data-rich countries. In situations in which SWAT over- or underpredicted the annual maximum concentrations, the magnitude of the over- or underprediction was commonly less than a factor of 2, indicating that the model and uncalibrated parameterization

  10. Describing model of empowering managers by applying structural equation modeling: A case study of universities in Ardabil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maryam Ghahremani Germi


    Full Text Available Empowerment is still on the agenda as a management concept and has become a widely used management term in the last decade or so. The purpose of this research was describing model of empowering managers by applying structural equation modeling (SEM at Ardabil universities. Two hundred and twenty managers of Ardabil universities including chancellors, managers, and vice presidents of education, research, and studies participated in this study. Clear and challenging goals, evaluation of function, access to resources, and rewarding were investigated. The results indicated that the designed SEM for empowering managers at university reflects a good fitness level. As it stands out, the conceptual model in the society under investigation was used appropriately. Among variables, access to resources with 88 per cent of load factor was known as the affective variable. Evaluation of function containing 51 per cent of load factor was recognized to have less effect. Results of average rating show that evaluation of function and access to resources with 2.62 coefficients stand at first level. Due to this, they had great impact on managers' empowerment. The results of the analysis provided compelling evidence that model of empowering managers was desirable at Ardabil universities.

  11. Divorce and Child Behavior Problems: Applying Latent Change Score Models to Life Event Data. (United States)

    Malone, Patrick S; Lansford, Jennifer E; Castellino, Domini R; Berlin, Lisa J; Dodge, Kenneth A; Bates, John E; Pettit, Gregory S


    Effects of parents' divorce on children's adjustment have been studied extensively. This article applies new advances in trajectory modeling to the problem of disentangling the effects of divorce on children's adjustment from related factors such as the child's age at the time of divorce and the child's gender. Latent change score models were used to examine trajectories of externalizing behavior problems in relation to children's experience of their parents' divorce. Participants included 356 boys and girls whose biological parents were married at kindergarten entry. The children were assessed annually through Grade 9. Mothers reported whether they had divorced or separated in each 12-month period, and teachers reported children's externalizing behavior problems each year. Girls' externalizing behavior problem trajectories were not affected by experiencing their parents' divorce, regardless of the timing of the divorce. In contrast, boys who were in elementary school when their parents divorced showed an increase in externalizing behavior problems in the year of the divorce. This increase persisted in the years following the divorce. Boys who were in middle school when their parents divorced showed an increase in externalizing behavior problems in the year of the divorce followed by a decrease to below baseline levels in the year after the divorce. This decrease persisted in the following years.

  12. Neural networks-based modeling applied to a process of heavy metals removal from wastewaters. (United States)

    Suditu, Gabriel D; Curteanu, Silvia; Bulgariu, Laura


    This article approaches the problem of environment pollution with heavy metals from disposal of industrial wastewaters, namely removal of these metals by means of biosorbents, particularly with Romanian peat (from Poiana Stampei). The study is carried out by simulation using feed-forward and modular neural networks with one or two hidden layers, pursuing the influence of certain operating parameters (metal nature, sorbent dose, pH, temperature, initial concentration of metal ion, contact time) on the amount of metal ions retained on the unit mass of sorbent. In neural network modeling, a consistent data set was used, including five metals: lead, mercury, cadmium, nickel and cobalt, the quantification of the metal nature being done by its electronegativity. Even if based on successive trials, the method of designing neural models was systematically conducted, recording and comparing the errors obtained with different types of neural networks, having various numbers of hidden layers and neurons, number of training epochs, or using various learning methods. The errors with values under 5% make clear the efficiency of the applied method.

  13. Calcium dependent plasticity applied to repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation with a neural field model. (United States)

    Wilson, M T; Fung, P K; Robinson, P A; Shemmell, J; Reynolds, J N J


    The calcium dependent plasticity (CaDP) approach to the modeling of synaptic weight change is applied using a neural field approach to realistic repetitive transcranial magnetic stimulation (rTMS) protocols. A spatially-symmetric nonlinear neural field model consisting of populations of excitatory and inhibitory neurons is used. The plasticity between excitatory cell populations is then evaluated using a CaDP approach that incorporates metaplasticity. The direction and size of the plasticity (potentiation or depression) depends on both the amplitude of stimulation and duration of the protocol. The breaks in the inhibitory theta-burst stimulation protocol are crucial to ensuring that the stimulation bursts are potentiating in nature. Tuning the parameters of a spike-timing dependent plasticity (STDP) window with a Monte Carlo approach to maximize agreement between STDP predictions and the CaDP results reproduces a realistically-shaped window with two regions of depression in agreement with the existing literature. Developing understanding of how TMS interacts with cells at a network level may be important for future investigation.

  14. Triangular node for Transmission-Line Modeling (TLM) applied to bio-heat transfer. (United States)

    Milan, Hugo F M; Gebremedhin, Kifle G


    Transmission-Line Modeling (TLM) is a numerical method used to solve complex and time-domain bio-heat transfer problems. In TLM, rectangles are used to discretize two-dimensional problems. The drawback in using rectangular shapes is that instead of refining only the domain of interest, a large additional domain will also be refined in the x and y axes, which results in increased computational time and memory space. In this paper, we developed a triangular node for TLM applied to bio-heat transfer that does not have the drawback associated with the rectangular nodes. The model includes heat source, blood perfusion (advection), boundary conditions and initial conditions. The boundary conditions could be adiabatic, temperature, heat flux, or convection. A matrix equation for TLM, which simplifies the solution of time-domain problems or solves steady-state problems, was also developed. The predicted results were compared against results obtained from the solution of a simplified two-dimensional problem, and they agreed within 1% for a mesh length of triangular faces of 59µm±9µm (mean±standard deviation) and a time step of 1ms. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. From LCAs to simplified models: a generic methodology applied to wind power electricity. (United States)

    Padey, Pierryves; Girard, Robin; le Boulch, Denis; Blanc, Isabelle


    This study presents a generic methodology to produce simplified models able to provide a comprehensive life cycle impact assessment of energy pathways. The methodology relies on the application of global sensitivity analysis to identify key parameters explaining the impact variability of systems over their life cycle. Simplified models are built upon the identification of such key parameters. The methodology is applied to one energy pathway: onshore wind turbines of medium size considering a large sample of possible configurations representative of European conditions. Among several technological, geographical, and methodological parameters, we identified the turbine load factor and the wind turbine lifetime as the most influent parameters. Greenhouse Gas (GHG) performances have been plotted as a function of these key parameters identified. Using these curves, GHG performances of a specific wind turbine can be estimated, thus avoiding the undertaking of an extensive Life Cycle Assessment (LCA). This methodology should be useful for decisions makers, providing them a robust but simple support tool for assessing the environmental performance of energy systems.

  16. Bending stress modeling of dismountable furniture joints applied with a use of finite element method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Milan Šimek


    Full Text Available Presented work focuses on bending moment stress modeling of dismountable furniture joints with a use of Finite Element Method. The joints are created from Minifix and Rondorfix cams combined with non-glued wooden dowels. Laminated particleboard 18 mm of thickness is used as a connected material. The connectors were chosen such as the most applied kind in furniture industry for the case furniture. All gained results were reciprocally compared to each other and also in comparison to experimental testing by the mean of stiffness. The non-linear numerical model of chosen joints was successfully created using the software Ansys Workbench. The detailed analysis of stress distribution in the joint was achieved with non-linear numerical simulation. A relationship between numerical si­mu­la­tion and experimental testing was showed by comparison stiffness tangents. A numerical simulation of RTA joint loads also demonstrated the important role of non-glued dowels in the tested joints. The low strength of particleboard in the tension parallel to surface (internal bond is the most likely the cause of the joint failure. Results are applicable for strength designing of furniture with the aid of Computer Aided Engineering.

  17. Parametric Accuracy: Building Information Modeling Process Applied to the Cultural Heritage Preservation (United States)

    Garagnani, S.; Manferdini, A. M.


    Since their introduction, modeling tools aimed to architectural design evolved in today's "digital multi-purpose drawing boards" based on enhanced parametric elements able to originate whole buildings within virtual environments. Semantic splitting and elements topology are features that allow objects to be "intelligent" (i.e. self-aware of what kind of element they are and with whom they can interact), representing this way basics of Building Information Modeling (BIM), a coordinated, consistent and always up to date workflow improved in order to reach higher quality, reliability and cost reductions all over the design process. Even if BIM was originally intended for new architectures, its attitude to store semantic inter-related information can be successfully applied to existing buildings as well, especially if they deserve particular care such as Cultural Heritage sites. BIM engines can easily manage simple parametric geometries, collapsing them to standard primitives connected through hierarchical relationships: however, when components are generated by existing morphologies, for example acquiring point clouds by digital photogrammetry or laser scanning equipment, complex abstractions have to be introduced while remodeling elements by hand, since automatic feature extraction in available software is still not effective. In order to introduce a methodology destined to process point cloud data in a BIM environment with high accuracy, this paper describes some experiences on monumental sites documentation, generated through a plug-in written for Autodesk Revit and codenamed GreenSpider after its capability to layout points in space as if they were nodes of an ideal cobweb.

  18. Applying Interpretive Structural Modeling to Cost Overruns in Construction Projects in the Sultanate of Oman

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Alzebdeh


    Full Text Available Cost overruns in construction projects are a problem faced by project managers, engineers, and clients throughout the Middle East.  Globally, several studies in the literature have focused on identifying the causes of these overruns and used statistical methods to rank them according to their impacts. None of these studies have considered the interactions among these factors. This paper examines interpretive structural modelling (ISM as a viable technique for modelling complex interactions among factors responsible for cost overruns in construction projects in the Sultanate of Oman. In particular, thirteen interrelated factors associated with cost overruns were identified, along with their contextual interrelationships. Application of ISM leads to organizing these factors in a hierarchical structure which effectively demonstrates their interactions in a simple way. Four factors were found to be at the root of cost overruns: instability of the US dollar, changes in governmental regulations, faulty cost estimation, and poor coordination among projects’ parties. Taking appropriate actions to minimize the influence of these factors can ultimately lead to better control of future project costs. Thisstudy is of value to managers and decision makers because it provides a powerful yet very easy to apply approach for investigating the problem of cost overruns and other similar issues.

  19. Making change last: applying the NHS institute for innovation and improvement sustainability model to healthcare improvement. (United States)

    Doyle, Cathal; Howe, Cathy; Woodcock, Thomas; Myron, Rowan; Phekoo, Karen; McNicholas, Chris; Saffer, Jessica; Bell, Derek


    The implementation of evidence-based treatments to deliver high-quality care is essential to meet the healthcare demands of aging populations. However, the sustainable application of recommended practice is difficult to achieve and variable outcomes well recognised. The NHS Institute for Innovation and Improvement Sustainability Model (SM) was designed to help healthcare teams recognise determinants of sustainability and take action to embed new practice in routine care. This article describes a formative evaluation of the application of the SM by the National Institute for Health Research Collaboration for Leadership in Applied Health Research and Care for Northwest London (CLAHRC NWL). Data from project teams' responses to the SM and formal reviews was used to assess acceptability of the SM and the extent to which it prompted teams to take action. Projects were classified as 'engaged,' 'partially engaged' and 'non-engaged.' Quarterly survey feedback data was used to explore reasons for variation in engagement. Score patterns were compared against formal review data and a 'diversity of opinion' measure was derived to assess response variance over time. Of the 19 teams, six were categorized as 'engaged,' six 'partially engaged,' and seven as 'non-engaged.' Twelve teams found the model acceptable to some extent. Diversity of opinion reduced over time. A minority of teams used the SM consistently to take action to promote sustainability but for the majority SM use was sporadic. Feedback from some team members indicates difficulty in understanding and applying the model and negative views regarding its usefulness. The SM is an important attempt to enable teams to systematically consider determinants of sustainability, provide timely data to assess progress, and prompt action to create conditions for sustained practice. Tools such as these need to be tested in healthcare settings to assess strengths and weaknesses and findings disseminated to aid development. This

  20. Design of a three-dimensional hand/forearm model to apply computational fluid dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Almeida Marinho


    Full Text Available The purpose of this study was to develop a three-dimensional digital model of a human hand and forearm to apply Computational Fluid Dynamics to propulsion analysis in swimming. Computer tomography scans of the hand and forearm of an Olympic swimmer were applied. The data were converted, using image processing techniques, into relevant coordinate input, which could be used in Computational Fluid Dynamics software. From that analysis, it was possible to verify an almost perfect agreement between the true human segment and the digital model. This technique could be used as a means to overcome the difficulties in developing a true three-dimensional model of a specific segment of the human body. Additionally, it could be used to improve the use of Computational Fluid Dynamics generally in sports and specifically in swimming studies, decreasing the gap between the experimental and the computational data.O objetivo do presente estudo foi desenvolver um modelo digital tridimensional de uma mão e um antebraço humano para aplicar a Dinâmica Computacional de Fluidos ao estudo da propulsão em natação. Foram aplicados procedimentos computorizados de tomografia axial na mão e antebraço de um nadador Olímpico. Através de técnicas de processamento de imagem, os dados foram convertidos em coordenadas tridimensionais, que podem ser utilizadas em programas de simulação computacional. Através dos resultados encontrados, foi possível verificar uma semelhança quase perfeita entre o segmento humano e o modelo digital. Esta técnica pode ser utilizada como uma forma de ultrapassar as dificuldades em desenvolver um modelo digital tridimensional de um segmento específico do corpo humano. Complementarmente, pode ser bastante útil na melhoria da utilização da Dinâmica Computacional de Fluidos no Desporto, de uma forma geral, e, mais especificamente, nos estudos em natação, diminuindo a diferença entre a investigação experimental e a investiga

  1. Applying the Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model in Support of Integratability, Interoperability, and Composability for System-of-Systems Engineering

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Tolk


    Full Text Available The Levels of Conceptual Interoperability Model (LCIM was developed to cope with the different layers of interoperation of modeling and simulation applications. It introduced technical, syntactic, semantic, pragmatic, dynamic, and conceptual layers of interoperation and showed how they are related to the ideas of integratability, interoperability, and composability. The model was successfully applied in various domains of systems, cybernetics, and informatics.

  2. Verification of extended model of goal directed behavior applied on aggression

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Katarína Vasková


    Full Text Available The study was aimed to verify Model of Goal Directed Behavior (EMGB by Perugini and Bagozzi (2001 applied on aggression by Richetin, Richardson and Boykin (2011. Two different studies were performed. Firstly original form of model was verified. In the second study, modification of EMGB through new conceptualization of scale of perceived behavioral control was executed. The research sample consisted together from 385 students of University of P.J. Šafárik and High school in Košice (182 respondents (78 men, 104 women with average age 20,84 years and standard deviation 1,94, who were involved in first study and 203 students (49 men and 154 women, with average age 19,71 and standard deviation 1,99 participated in second study who were administrated questionnaire by Richetin et al. (2011 and Richardson Conflict Response Questionnaire (Richardson & Green, 2006. Expectancy of comparable relationships between particular factors of EMGB in comparison to its published original version was verified. Data were analyzed by structural equation modeling. In first study was shown insufficient fit of EMGB model. There were hypothesized two main sources of problems. At first, weak relationship between attitudes and behavioral desire was shown. Following statistical procedures confirmed its direct impact on intention, what is in correspondence with another studies (see Leone, Perugini & Ercolani, 2004, Perugini & Bagozzi, 2001, Richetin et al., 2011. Second source of problems was identified in factor named perceived behavioral control. Difficulties from our point of view lied in conceptualization of the term and its subsequent measurement. In the second study was involved new conceptualization of control. It corresponded with Baumeister´s understanding of selfcontrol as asserting control over one´s emotions, thoughts and behavior. After this modification sufficient fit of EMGB was shown. Besides this, factor of self-control was the strongest predictor of

  3. Identification of water quality degradation hotspots in developing countries by applying large scale water quality modelling (United States)

    Malsy, Marcus; Reder, Klara; Flörke, Martina


    Decreasing water quality is one of the main global issues which poses risks to food security, economy, and public health and is consequently crucial for ensuring environmental sustainability. During the last decades access to clean drinking water increased, but 2.5 billion people still do not have access to basic sanitation, especially in Africa and parts of Asia. In this context not only connection to sewage system is of high importance, but also treatment, as an increasing connection rate will lead to higher loadings and therefore higher pressure on water resources. Furthermore, poor people in developing countries use local surface waters for daily activities, e.g. bathing and washing. It is thus clear that water utilization and water sewerage are indispensable connected. In this study, large scale water quality modelling is used to point out hotspots of water pollution to get an insight on potential environmental impacts, in particular, in regions with a low observation density and data gaps in measured water quality parameters. We applied the global water quality model WorldQual to calculate biological oxygen demand (BOD) loadings from point and diffuse sources, as well as in-stream concentrations. Regional focus in this study is on developing countries i.e. Africa, Asia, and South America, as they are most affected by water pollution. Hereby, model runs were conducted for the year 2010 to draw a picture of recent status of surface waters quality and to figure out hotspots and main causes of pollution. First results show that hotspots mainly occur in highly agglomerated regions where population density is high. Large urban areas are initially loading hotspots and pollution prevention and control become increasingly important as point sources are subject to connection rates and treatment levels. Furthermore, river discharge plays a crucial role due to dilution potential, especially in terms of seasonal variability. Highly varying shares of BOD sources across

  4. Sensor Management for Applied Research Technologies (SMART) On Demand Modeling (ODM) Project (United States)

    Conover, H.; Berthiau, G.; Blakeslee, R.; Botts, M.; Goodman, M.; Hood, R.; Jedlovec, G.; Li, X.; Lu, J.; Maskey, M.


    On-demand data processing and analysis of Earth science observations will facilitate timely decision making that can lead to the realization of the practical benefits of satellite instruments, airborne and surface remote sensing systems. However, a significant challenge exists in accessing and integrating data from multiple sensors or platforms to address Earth science problems because of the large data volumes, varying sensor scan characteristics, unique orbital coverage, and the steep learning curve associated with each sensor, data type and associated products. The development of sensor web capabilities to autonomously process these data streams (whether real-time or archived) provides an opportunity to overcome these obstacles and facilitate the integration and synthesis of Earth science data and weather model output. The authors will present initial results from Sensor Management for Applied Research Technologies (SMART) On Demand Modeling (ODM). This NASA- funded project is developing and demonstrating the readiness of Open Geospatial Consortium Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) capabilities that integrate both Earth observations and forecast model output into new data acquisition and assimilation strategies. First year accomplishments include development of numerous Sensor Observation Services (SOS) and an SOS registry for sensor data discovery and access, as well as a prototype user application, built on these services, for validating cloud types as observed by multiple instruments. The three-year goal of this project is to demonstration how SWE-enabled systems can have practical and efficient uses in the Earth science community for enhanced data set generation, real-time data assimilation with operational applications, and for autonomous sensor tasking for unique data collection.

  5. Cost-effectiveness analysis in melanoma detection: A transition model applied to dermoscopy. (United States)

    Tromme, Isabelle; Legrand, Catherine; Devleesschauwer, Brecht; Leiter, Ulrike; Suciu, Stefan; Eggermont, Alexander; Sacré, Laurine; Baurain, Jean-François; Thomas, Luc; Beutels, Philippe; Speybroeck, Niko


    The main aim of this study is to demonstrate how our melanoma disease model (MDM) can be used for cost-effectiveness analyses (CEAs) in the melanoma detection field. In particular, we used the data of two cohorts of Belgian melanoma patients to investigate the cost-effectiveness of dermoscopy. A MDM, previously constructed to calculate the melanoma burden, was slightly modified to be suitable for CEAs. Two cohorts of patients entered into the model to calculate morbidity, mortality and costs. These cohorts were constituted by melanoma patients diagnosed by dermatologists adequately, or not adequately, trained in dermoscopy. Effectiveness and costs were calculated for each cohort and compared. Effectiveness was expressed in quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), a composite measure depending on melanoma-related morbidity and mortality. Costs included costs of treatment and follow-up as well as costs of detection in non-melanoma patients and costs of excision and pathology of benign lesions excised to rule out melanoma. The result of our analysis concluded that melanoma diagnosis by dermatologists adequately trained in dermoscopy resulted in both a gain of QALYs (less morbidity and/or mortality) and a reduction in costs. This study demonstrates how our MDM can be used in CEAs in the melanoma detection field. The model and the methodology suggested in this paper were applied to two cohorts of Belgian melanoma patients. Their analysis concluded that adequate dermoscopy training is cost-effective. The results should be confirmed by a large-scale randomised study. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  6. Optimal administrative scale for planning public services: a social cost model applied to Flemish hospital care. (United States)

    Blank, Jos L T; van Hulst, Bart


    In choosing the scale of public services, such as hospitals, both economic and public administrative considerations play important roles. The scale and the corresponding spatial distribution of public institutions have consequences for social costs, defined as the institutions' operating costs and the users' travel costs (which include the money and time costs). Insight into the relationship between scale and spatial distribution and social costs provides a practical guide for the best possible administrative planning level. This article presents a purely economic model that is suitable for deriving the optimal scale for public services. The model also reveals the corresponding optimal administrative planning level from an economic perspective. We applied this model to hospital care in Flanders for three different types of care. For its application, we examined the social costs of hospital services at different levels of administrative planning. The outcomes show that the social costs of rehabilitation in Flanders with planning at the urban level (38 areas) are 11% higher than those at the provincial level (five provinces). At the regional level (18 areas), the social costs of rehabilitation are virtually equal to those at the provincial level. For radiotherapy, there is a difference of 88% in the social costs between the urban and the provincial level. For general care, there are hardly any cost differences between the three administrative levels. Thus, purely from the perspective of social costs, rehabilitation should preferably be planned at the regional level, general services at the urban level and radiotherapy at the provincial level. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Interdisciplinary approaches of transcranial magnetic stimulation applied to a respiratory neuronal circuitry model.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stéphane Vinit

    Full Text Available Respiratory related diseases associated with the neuronal control of breathing represent life-threatening issues and to date, no effective therapeutics are available to enhance the impaired function. The aim of this study was to determine whether a preclinical respiratory model could be used for further studies to develop a non-invasive therapeutic tool applied to rat diaphragmatic neuronal circuitry. Transcranial magnetic stimulation (TMS was performed on adult male Sprague-Dawley rats using a human figure-of-eight coil. The largest diaphragmatic motor evoked potentials (MEPdia were recorded when the center of the coil was positioned 6 mm caudal from Bregma, involving a stimulation of respiratory supraspinal pathways. Magnetic shielding of the coil with mu metal reduced magnetic field intensities and improved focality with increased motor threshold and lower amplitude recruitment curve. Moreover, transynaptic neuroanatomical tracing with pseudorabies virus (applied to the diaphragm suggest that connections exist between the motor cortex, the periaqueductal grey cell regions, several brainstem neurons and spinal phrenic motoneurons (distributed in the C3-4 spinal cord. These results reveal the anatomical substrate through which supraspinal stimulation can convey descending action potential volleys to the spinal motoneurons (directly or indirectly. We conclude that MEPdia following a single pulse of TMS can be successfully recorded in the rat and may be used in the assessment of respiratory supraspinal plasticity. Supraspinal non-invasive stimulations aimed to neuromodulate respiratory circuitry will enable new avenues of research into neuroplasticity and the development of therapies for respiratory dysfunction associated with neural injury and disease (e.g. spinal cord injury, amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

  8. The transfer and growth of Salmonella modelled during pork processing and applied to a risk assessment for the catering sector

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Cleide

    Microbiological Risk Assessment (QMRA), following the Codex Alimentarius Principles and using the modular process risk model (MPRM) methodology, was used as the tool to investigate the fate of Salmonella during processing of pork meatballs from the reception of whole pork cuttings, through processing, until...... and concentration of Salmonellahad higher impact on the risk estimates, thereby justifying the efforts to keep these factors low. The flexible structure of the QMRA model allows scenario analysis, which consequently makes it possible to expand the use of the QMRA model from pathogen outbreak investigation...... observational studies. Applying the proposed QMRA model (MANUSCRIPT II), risk estimates of illness from meatballs processed by the catering sector per year in Denmark were obtained (no cases applying a core temperature >71°C, 27 cases applying a core temperature of 65°C, 69 cases without applying a final heat...

  9. Optimal selection for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation testing using a combination of 'easy to apply' probability models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bodmer, D; Ligtenberg, M.J.L; Hout, A.H. van der; Gloudemans, S; Ansink, K; Oosterwijk-Wakka, J.C; Hoogerbrugge-van der Linden, N


    To establish an efficient, reliable and easy to apply risk assessment tool to select families with breast and/or ovarian cancer patients for BRCA mutation testing, using available probability models...

  10. Optimal selection for BRCA1 and BRCA2 mutation testing using a combination of ' easy to apply ' probability models

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Bodmer, D; Ligtenberg, M. J. L; van der Hout, A. H; Gloudemans, S; Ansink, K; Oosterwijk, J. C; Hoogerbrugge, N


    To establish an efficient, reliable and easy to apply risk assessment tool to select families with breast and/or ovarian cancer patients for BRCA mutation testing, using available probability models...

  11. A variable age of onset segregation model for linkage analysis, with correction for ascertainment, applied to glioma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sun, Xiangqing; Vengoechea, Jaime; Elston, Robert


    We propose a 2-step model-based approach, with correction for ascertainment, to linkage analysis of a binary trait with variable age of onset and apply it to a set of multiplex pedigrees segregating for adult glioma....

  12. Economic advantages of applying model predictive control to distributed energy resources : The case of micro-CHP systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Houwing, M.; Negenborn, R.R.; De Schutter, B.


    The increasing presence of distributed energy resources, information and intelligence in the electricity infrastructure increases the possibilities for larger economic efficiency of power systems. This work shows the possible cost advantages of applying a model predictive control (MPC) strategy to

  13. Insight into human pubertal growth by applying the QEPS growth model. (United States)

    Holmgren, Anton; Niklasson, Aimon; Gelander, Lars; Aronson, A Stefan; Nierop, Andreas F M; Albertsson-Wikland, Kerstin


    Computerized mathematical models describing absolute and relative individual growth during puberty in both cm and standard deviation (SD)-scores are lacking. The present study aimed to fill this gap, by applying the QEPS-model that delineates mathematically the specific pubertal functions of the total growth curve. Study population used was the individual growth curves of the longitudinally followed cohort GrowUp1974 Gothenburg (n = 2280). The QEPS-model describes total height as (T)otal-function: a combination of four shape-invariant growth functions, modified by time-scale and height-scale parameters: a (Q)uadratic-function for the continuous growth from fetal life to adulthood; a negative (E)xponential-function adds the rapid, declining fetal/infancy growth; a (P)ubertal-function the specific pubertal growth spurt; a (S)top-function the declining growth until adult height. A constructed variable, MathSelect, was developed for assessing data-quality. CIs and SD-scores for growth estimates were calculated for each individual. QEPS-model estimates used for pubertal growth; from the T-function: onset of puberty as minimal height velocity (AgeT ONSET ); mid-puberty as peak height velocity (AgeT PHV ); end of puberty as height velocity decreased to 1 cm/year (AgeT END ); duration of different intervals and gain (AgeT ONSET-END and Tpubgain); from the P-function: onset of puberty, estimated as growth at 1% or 5% (AgeP1 , AgeP5); mid-puberty as 50% (AgeP50) and PHV (AgeP PHV ); end of pubertal growth at 95 or 99% (AgeP95, AgeP99); duration of different intervals and pubertal gain (Ppubgain; P max ); from the QES-function: gain (QESpubgain) . RESULTS: Application of these mathematical estimates for onset, middle and end of puberty of P-function, QES-function, and T-function during puberty showed: the later the onset of puberty, the greater the adult height; pubertal gain due to the P-function growth was independent of age at onset of puberty; boys had higher total

  14. Pu-239 organ specific dosimetric model applied to non-human biota (United States)

    Kaspar, Matthew Jason

    There are few locations throughout the world, like the Maralinga nuclear test site located in south western Australia, where sufficient plutonium contaminate concentration levels exist that they can be utilized for studies of the long-term radionuclide accumulation in non-human biota. The information obtained will be useful for the potential human users of the site while also keeping with international efforts to better understand doses to non-human biota. In particular, this study focuses primarily on a rabbit sample set collected from the population located within the site. Our approach is intended to employ the same dose and dose rate methods selected by the International Commission on Radiological Protection and adapted by the scientific community for similar research questions. These models rely on a series of simplifying assumptions on biota and their geometry; in particular; organisms are treated as spherical and ellipsoidal representations displaying the animal mass and volume. These simplifications assume homogeneity of all animal tissues. In collaborative efforts between Colorado State University and the Australian Nuclear Science and Technology Organisation (ANSTO), we are expanding current knowledge on radionuclide accumulation in specific organs causing organ-specific dose rates, such as Pu-239 accumulating in bone, liver, and lungs. Organ-specific dose models have been developed for humans; however, little has been developed for the dose assessment to biota, in particular rabbits. This study will determine if it is scientifically valid to use standard software, in particular ERICA Tool, as a means to determine organ-specific dosimetry due to Pu-239 accumulation in organs. ERICA Tool is normally applied to whole organisms as a means to determine radiological risk to whole ecosystems. We will focus on the aquatic model within ERICA Tool, as animal organs, like aquatic organisms, can be assumed to lie within an infinite uniform medium. This model would

  15. GEM-E3: A computable general equilibrium model applied for Switzerland

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bahn, O. [Paul Scherrer Inst., CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland); Frei, C. [Ecole Polytechnique Federale de Lausanne (EPFL) and Paul Scherrer Inst. (Switzerland)


    The objectives of the European Research Project GEM-E3-ELITE, funded by the European Commission and coordinated by the Centre for European Economic Research (Germany), were to further develop the general equilibrium model GEM-E3 (Capros et al., 1995, 1997) and to conduct policy analysis through case studies. GEM-E3 is an applied general equilibrium model that analyses the macro-economy and its interaction with the energy system and the environment through the balancing of energy supply and demand, atmospheric emissions and pollution control, together with the fulfillment of overall equilibrium conditions. PSI's research objectives within GEM-E3-ELITE were to implement and apply GEM-E3 for Switzerland. The first objective required in particular the development of a Swiss database for each of GEM-E3 modules (economic module and environmental module). For the second objective, strategies to reduce CO{sub 2} emissions were evaluated for Switzerland. In order to develop the economic, PSI collaborated with the Laboratory of Applied Economics (LEA) of the University of Geneva and the Laboratory of Energy Systems (LASEN) of the Federal Institute of Technology in Lausanne (EPFL). The Swiss Federal Statistical Office (SFSO) and the Institute for Business Cycle Research (KOF) of the Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH Zurich) contributed also data. The Swiss environmental database consists mainly of an Energy Balance Table and of an Emission Coefficients Table. Both were designed using national and international official statistics. The Emission Coefficients Table is furthermore based on know-how of the PSI GaBE Project. Using GEM-E3 Switzerland, two strategies to reduce the Swiss CO{sub 2} emissions were evaluated: a carbon tax ('tax only' strategy), and the combination of a carbon tax with the buying of CO{sub 2} emission permits ('permits and tax' strategy). In the first strategy, Switzerland would impose the necessary carbon tax to achieve

  16. Mishal: A Case Study of a Deradicalization and Emancipation Program in SWAT Valley, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zubair Azam


    Full Text Available Nestled in the SWAT valley lies Pakistan’s earliest known deradicalization initiative for former militants, the Mishal Deradicalization and Emancipation Program (DREP. The Deradicalization program was launched following a military operation in 2009 against the Pakistan wing of the Taliban, namely, the Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP. The program aimed to deradicalize and rehabilitate arrested militants, with what officials claim is a 99 percent success rate and with more than 2,500 former Taliban fighters now ‘reformed’. The program abides by a ‘no blood on hand’ policy, whereby it only takes in militants who have not caused any bodily harm to others. In this paper, we analyze the deradicalization program and highlight the limits and challenges it faces. The paper also highlights the common individual and environmental factors among the beneficiary population of the deradicalization program. This study finds that most participants of the program belonged to large or broken families with weak socio-economic profiles. Additionally, these individuals had very little technical knowledge of religion. This study also finds that the program is more oriented towards re-integration rather than deradicalization due to its policy of inducting only low and mid-level cadre militants. The program also has other severe limitations including lack of credible religious scholars, limited financial and human resources.

  17. Economically and ecologically important plant communities in high altitude coniferous forest of Malam Jabba, Swat, Pakistan. (United States)

    Sher, Hassan; Al Yemeni, Mohammad


    A study on the economically important plant communities was carried out during summer 2008 in various parts of Malam Jabba valley, Swat. The principal aim of the study was phytosociological evaluation with special reference to the occurrence of commercially important medicinal plant species in coniferous forest of the study area. Secondly to prepare ethnobotanical inventory of the plant resources of the area, as well as to evaluate the conservation status of important medicinal and aromatic plants (MAPs) through rapid vulnerable assessment (RVA) procedure. The study documented 90 species of ethnobotanical importance, out of these 71 spp used as medicinal plant, 20 spp fodder plant, 10 spp vegetables, 14 spp wild fruit, 18 spp fuel wood, 9 spp furniture and agricultural tools, 9 spp thatching, fencing and hedges, 4 spp honey bee, 2 spp evil eyes, 2 spp religious and 3 spp as poison. Phytosociologically six plant communities were found, comprising five herbs-shrubs-trees communities and one meadow community. Further study is, therefore, required to quantify the availability of species and to suggest suitable method for their production and conservation. Recommendations are also given in the spheres of training in identification, sustainable collection, value addition, trade monitoring and cooperative system of marketing.

  18. Uncertainty propagation analysis applied to volcanic ash dispersal at Mt. Etna by using a Lagrangian model (United States)

    de'Michieli Vitturi, Mattia; Pardini, Federica; Spanu, Antonio; Neri, Augusto; Vittoria Salvetti, Maria


    Volcanic ash clouds represent a major hazard for populations living nearby volcanic centers producing a risk for humans and a potential threat to crops, ground infrastructures, and aviation traffic. Lagrangian particle dispersal models are commonly used for tracking ash particles emitted from volcanic plumes and transported under the action of atmospheric wind fields. In this work, we present the results of an uncertainty propagation analysis applied to volcanic ash dispersal from weak plumes with specific focus on the uncertainties related to the grain-size distribution of the mixture. To this aim, the Eulerian fully compressible mesoscale non-hydrostatic model WRF was used to generate the driving wind, representative of the atmospheric conditions occurring during the event of November 24, 2006 at Mt. Etna. Then, the Lagrangian particle model LPAC (de' Michieli Vitturi et al., JGR 2010) was used to simulate the transport of mass particles under the action of atmospheric conditions. The particle motion equations were derived by expressing the Lagrangian particle acceleration as the sum of the forces acting along its trajectory, with drag forces calculated as a function of particle diameter, density, shape and Reynolds number. The simulations were representative of weak plume events of Mt. Etna and aimed to quantify the effect on the dispersal process of the uncertainty in the particle sphericity and in the mean and variance of a log-normal distribution function describing the grain-size of ash particles released from the eruptive column. In order to analyze the sensitivity of particle dispersal to these uncertain parameters with a reasonable number of simulations, and therefore with affordable computational costs, response surfaces in the parameter space were built by using the generalized polynomial chaos technique. The uncertainty analysis allowed to quantify the most probable values, as well as their pdf, of the number of particles as well as of the mean and

  19. Applying the Stages of Change model to Type 2 diabetes care in Trinidad: a randomised trial. (United States)

    Partapsingh, V A; Maharaj, R G; Rawlins, J M


    To improve glycaemic control among Type 2 diabetics using patient-physician consultations guided by the Stages of Change (SOC) model. A randomised trial was conducted. After ensuring concealment of allocation, Type 2 diabetics were randomly assigned to receive the intervention or the control. The intervention consisted of identifying each patient's Stage of Change for managing their diabetes by diet, exercise and medications, and applying personalised, stage-specific care during the patient-physician consultations based on the SOC model. Patients in the control group received routine care. The variables of interest were effect on glycaemic control (measured by the difference in HbA1c levels) and patients' readiness to change (measured by identifying patients' SOC for managing their diabetes by diet, exercise and medications). Participants were primarily over age 50, male and Indo-Trinidadian. Most had received only a primary school education and over 65% had a monthly income of $320 USD/month or less. Sixty-one Type 2 diabetics participated in each arm. Three patients were lost to follow-up in the intervention arm. After 48 weeks, there was an overall increase in HbA1c of 0.52% (SE 0.17) and 1.09% (SE 0.18) for both the intervention and control groups respectively. There was a relative reduction in HbA1c of 0.57% (95% CI 0.07, 1.07) with the intervention group compared to the control (p = 0.025). For exercise and diet there was an overall tendency for participants in the intervention arm to move to a more favourable SOC, but little change was noted with regards medication use. The result suggests a tendency to a worsening of glycaemic control in this population despite adopting more favourable SOC for diet and exercise. We hypothesized that harsh social conditions prevailing at the time of the study overrode the clinical intervention.

  20. A coupled regolith-lake development model applied to the Forsmark site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brydsten, Lars; Stroemgren, Maarten (Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden))


    The Quaternary geology at the Forsmark site has been characterized using both a map of Quaternary deposits and a regolith depth model (RDM) that show the stratigraphy and thickness of different deposits. Regolith refers to all the unconsolidated deposits overlying the bedrock. The surface geology and regolith depth are important parameters for hydrogeological and geochemical modelling and for the overall understanding of the area. The safety assessment analysis should focus on processes involved during a period of 120,000 years, which includes a full glacial cycle; however, the investigations within the site description model do not cover the temporal change of the regolith, a limitation that does not fulfil the requirements for the safety assessment. To this end, this study constructs a model that can predict the surface geology, stratigraphy, and thickness of different strata at any time during a glacial cycle and applies this model to the Forsmark site. The Weichselian ice sheet covered the study area until around 9500 BC. The deglaciation revealed a marine landscape with bedrock, till and glacial clay. For the safety assessment, the most important unconsolidated strata are clay or silt: these small grains can bind nuclear elements more easily than coarser sediment particles. Thick layers of clay can be found where post-glacial clay settled on top of glacial clay, especially where the middle-aged erosion of postglacial clay is missing and where there is an uninterrupted sequence of accumulation of finegrained particles. Such areas could be found in deep marine basins that later become lakes when raised into a supra-marine position. The coupled regolith-lake development model (RLDM) predicts the course of events described above during an interglacial, especially the dynamics of the clay and silt particles. The RLDM is divided into two modules: a marine module that predicts the sediment dynamics caused by wind waves and a lake module that predicts the lake infill