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Sample records for swat landscape model

  1. Grid based calibration of SWAT hydrological models

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    D. Gorgan

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available The calibration and execution of large hydrological models, such as SWAT (soil and water assessment tool, developed for large areas, high resolution, and huge input data, need not only quite a long execution time but also high computation resources. SWAT hydrological model supports studies and predictions of the impact of land management practices on water, sediment, and agricultural chemical yields in complex watersheds. The paper presents the gSWAT application as a web practical solution for environmental specialists to calibrate extensive hydrological models and to run scenarios, by hiding the complex control of processes and heterogeneous resources across the grid based high computation infrastructure. The paper highlights the basic functionalities of the gSWAT platform, and the features of the graphical user interface. The presentation is concerned with the development of working sessions, interactive control of calibration, direct and basic editing of parameters, process monitoring, and graphical and interactive visualization of the results. The experiments performed on different SWAT models and the obtained results argue the benefits brought by the grid parallel and distributed environment as a solution for the processing platform. All the instances of SWAT models used in the reported experiments have been developed through the enviroGRIDS project, targeting the Black Sea catchment area.

  2. Impact of Spatial Scale on Calibration and Model Output for a Grid-based SWAT Model

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    Pignotti, G.; Vema, V. K.; Rathjens, H.; Raj, C.; Her, Y.; Chaubey, I.; Crawford, M. M.

    2014-12-01

    The traditional implementation of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model utilizes common landscape characteristics known as hydrologic response units (HRUs). Discretization into HRUs provides a simple, computationally efficient framework for simulation, but also represents a significant limitation of the model as spatial connectivity between HRUs is ignored. SWATgrid, a newly developed, distributed version of SWAT, provides modified landscape routing via a grid, overcoming these limitations. However, the current implementation of SWATgrid has significant computational overhead, which effectively precludes traditional calibration and limits the total number of grid cells in a given modeling scenario. Moreover, as SWATgrid is a relatively new modeling approach, it remains largely untested with little understanding of the impact of spatial resolution on model output. The objective of this study was to determine the effects of user-defined input resolution on SWATgrid predictions in the Upper Cedar Creek Watershed (near Auburn, IN, USA). Original input data, nominally at 30 m resolution, was rescaled for a range of resolutions between 30 and 4,000 m. A 30 m traditional SWAT model was developed as the baseline for model comparison. Monthly calibration was performed, and the calibrated parameter set was then transferred to all other SWAT and SWATgrid models to focus the effects of resolution on prediction uncertainty relative to the baseline. Model output was evaluated with respect to stream flow at the outlet and water quality parameters. Additionally, output of SWATgrid models were compared to output of traditional SWAT models at each resolution, utilizing the same scaled input data. A secondary objective considered the effect of scale on calibrated parameter values, where each standard SWAT model was calibrated independently, and parameters were transferred to SWATgrid models at equivalent scales. For each model, computational requirements were evaluated

  3. Introducing a new open source GIS user interface for the SWAT model

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    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is a robust watershed modelling tool. It typically uses the ArcSWAT interface to create its inputs. ArcSWAT is public domain software which works in the licensed ArcGIS environment. The aim of this paper was to develop an open source user interface ...

  4. Prediction of phosphorus loads in an artificially drained lowland catchment using a modified SWAT model

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    Bauwe, Andreas; Eckhardt, Kai-Uwe; Lennartz, Bernd

    2017-04-01

    Eutrophication is still one of the main environmental problems in the Baltic Sea. Currently, agricultural diffuse sources constitute the major portion of phosphorus (P) fluxes to the Baltic Sea and have to be reduced to achieve the HELCOM targets and improve the ecological status. Eco-hydrological models are suitable tools to identify sources of nutrients and possible measures aiming at reducing nutrient loads into surface waters. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to the Warnow river basin (3300 km2), the second largest watershed in Germany discharging into the Baltic Sea. The Warnow river basin is located in northeastern Germany and characterized by lowlands with a high proportion of artificially drained areas. The aim of this study were (i) to estimate P loadings for individual flow fractions (point sources, surface runoff, tile flow, groundwater flow), spatially distributed on sub-basin scale. Since the official version of SWAT does not allow for the modeling of P in tile drains, we tested (ii) two different approaches of simulating P in tile drains by changing the SWAT source code. The SWAT source code was modified so that (i) the soluble P concentration of the groundwater was transferred to the tile water and (ii) the soluble P in the soil was transferred to the tiles. The SWAT model was first calibrated (2002-2011) and validated (1992-2001) for stream flow at 7 headwater catchments at a daily time scale. Based on this, the stream flow at the outlet of the Warnow river basin was simulated. Performance statistics indicated at least satisfactory model results for each sub-basin. Breaking down the discharge into flow constituents, it becomes visible that stream flow is mainly governed by groundwater and tile flow. Due to the topographic situation with gentle slopes, surface runoff played only a minor role. Results further indicate that the prediction of soluble P loads was improved by the modified SWAT versions. Major sources of

  5. Application of WRF - SWAT OpenMI 2.0 based models integration for real time hydrological modelling and forecasting

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    Bugaets, Andrey; Gonchukov, Leonid

    2014-05-01

    coinciding as virtual weather stations) realized as OpenMI AdaptedOutput. In order to make sure that SWAT-WRF integration technically sounds and preevaluate the impact of the climatic data resolution on the model parameters a number of test calculations were performed with different time-spatial aggregation of WRF output. Numerical experiments were carried out for the period of 2012-2013 on the Komarovka river watershed (former Primorskaya water-balance station) located in the small mountains landscapes in the western part of the Khankaiskaya plain. The watershed outlet is equipped with the automatic water level and rain gauging stations of Primorie Hydrometeorological Agency (Prigidromet http://primgidromet.ru) observation network. Spatial structure of SWAT simulation realized by ArcSWAT 2012 with 10m DEM resolution and 1:50000 soils and landuse cover. Sensitivity analysis and calibration are performed with SWAT CUP. WRF-SWAT composition is assembled in the GUI OpenMI. For the test basin in most cases the simulation results show that the predicted and measured water levels demonstrate acceptable agreement. Enforcing SWAT with WRF output avoids some semi-empirical model approximation, replaces a native weather generator for WRF forecast interval and improved upon the operational streamflow forecast. It is anticipated that leveraging direct use of the WRF variables (not only substituted standard SWAT input) will have good potential to make SWAT more physically sound.

  6. A GUIDED SWAT MODEL APPLICATION ON SEDIMENT YIELD MODELING IN PANGANI RIVER BASIN: LESSONS LEARNT

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    Preksedis M. Ndomba

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available The overall objective of this paper is to report on the lessons learnt from applying Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT in a well guided sediment yield modelling study. The study area is the upstream of Pangani River Basin (PRB, the Nyumba Ya Mungu (NYM reservoir catchment, located in the North Eastern part of Tanzania. It should be noted that, previous modeling exercises in the region applied SWAT with preassumption that inter-rill or sheet erosion was the dominant erosion type. In contrast, in this study SWAT model application was guided by results of analysis of high temporal resolution of sediment flow data and hydro-meteorological data. The runoff component of the SWAT model was calibrated from six-years (i.e. 1977¿1982 of historical daily streamflow data. The sediment component of the model was calibrated using one-year (1977-1988 daily sediment loads estimated from one hydrological year sampling programme (between March and November, 2005 rating curve. A long-term period over 37 years (i.e. 1969-2005 simulation results of the SWAT model was validated to downstream NYM reservoir sediment accumulation information. The SWAT model captured 56 percent of the variance (CE and underestimated the observed daily sediment loads by 0.9 percent according to Total Mass Control (TMC performance indices during a normal wet hydrological year, i.e., between November 1, 1977 and October 31, 1978, as the calibration period. SWAT model predicted satisfactorily the long-term sediment catchment yield with a relative error of 2.6 percent. Also, the model has identified erosion sources spatially and has replicated some erosion processes as determined in other studies and field observations in the PRB. This result suggests that for catchments where sheet erosion is dominant SWAT model may substitute the sediment-rating curve. However, the SWAT model could not capture the dynamics of sediment load delivery in some seasons to the catchment outlet.

  7. SWAT Modeling for Depression-Dominated Areas: How Do Depressions Manipulate Hydrologic Modeling?

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    Mohsen Tahmasebi Nasab

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling hydrologic processes for depression-dominated areas such as the North American Prairie Pothole Region is complex and reliant on a clear understanding of dynamic filling-spilling-merging-splitting processes of numerous depressions over the surface. Puddles are spatially distributed over a watershed and their sizes, storages, and interactions vary over time. However, most hydrologic models fail to account for these dynamic processes. Like other traditional methods, depressions are filled as a required preprocessing step in the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. The objective of this study was to facilitate hydrologic modeling for depression-dominated areas by coupling SWAT with a Puddle Delineation (PD algorithm. In the coupled PD-SWAT model, the PD algorithm was utilized to quantify topographic details, including the characteristics, distribution, and hierarchical relationships of depressions, which were incorporated into SWAT at the hydrologic response unit (HRU scale. The new PD-SWAT model was tested for a large watershed in North Dakota under real precipitation events. In addition, hydrologic modeling of a small watershed was conducted under two extreme high and low synthetic precipitation conditions. In particular, the PD-SWAT was compared against the regular SWAT based on depressionless DEMs. The impact of depressions on the hydrologic modeling of the large and small watersheds was evaluated. The simulation results for the large watershed indicated that SWAT systematically overestimated the outlet discharge, which can be attributed to the failure to account for the hydrologic effects of depressions. It was found from the PD-SWAT modeling results that at the HRU scale surface runoff initiation was significantly delayed due to the threshold control of depressions. Under the high precipitation scenario, depressions increased the surface runoff peak. However, the low precipitation scenario could not fully fill depressions to reach

  8. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Ecohydrological Model Circa 2015: Global Application Trends, Insights and Issues

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    Gassman, P. W.; Arnold, J. G.; Srinivasan, R.

    2015-12-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most widely used watershed-scale water quality models in the world. Over 2,000 peer-reviewed SWAT-related journal articles have been published and hundreds of other studies have been published in conference proceedings and other formats. The use of SWAT was initially concentrated in North America and Europe but has also expanded dramatically in other countries and regions during the past decade including Brazil, China, India, Iran, South Korea, Southeast Asia and eastern Africa. The SWAT model has proven to be a very flexible tool for investigating a broad range of hydrologic and water quality problems at different watershed scales and environmental conditions, and has proven very adaptable for applications requiring improved hydrologic and other enhanced simulation needs. We investigate here the various technological, networking, and other factors that have supported the expanded use of SWAT, and also highlight current worldwide simulation trends and possible impediments to future increased usage of the model. Examples of technological advances include easy access to web-based documentation, user-support groups, and SWAT literature, a variety of Geographic Information System (GIS) interface tools, pre- and post-processing calibration software and other software, and an open source code which has served as a model development catalyst for multiple user groups. Extensive networking regarding the use of SWAT has further occurred via internet-based user support groups, model training workshops, regional working groups, regional and international conferences, and targeted development workshops. We further highlight several important model development trends that have emerged during the past decade including improved hydrologic, cropping system, best management practice (BMP) and pollutant transport simulation methods. In addition, several current SWAT weaknesses will be addressed and key development needs will be

  9. Regionalization of SWAT Model Parameters for Use in Ungauged Watersheds

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    Indrajeet Chaubey

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available There has been a steady shift towards modeling and model-based approaches as primary methods of assessing watershed response to hydrologic inputs and land management, and of quantifying watershed-wide best management practice (BMP effectiveness. Watershed models often require some degree of calibration and validation to achieve adequate watershed and therefore BMP representation. This is, however, only possible for gauged watersheds. There are many watersheds for which there are very little or no monitoring data available, thus the question as to whether it would be possible to extend and/or generalize model parameters obtained through calibration of gauged watersheds to ungauged watersheds within the same region. This study explored the possibility of developing regionalized model parameter sets for use in ungauged watersheds. The study evaluated two regionalization methods: global averaging, and regression-based parameters, on the SWAT model using data from priority watersheds in Arkansas. Resulting parameters were tested and model performance determined on three gauged watersheds. Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies (NS for stream flow obtained using regression-based parameters (0.53–0.83 compared well with corresponding values obtained through model calibration (0.45–0.90. Model performance obtained using global averaged parameter values was also generally acceptable (0.4 ≤ NS ≤ 0.75. Results from this study indicate that regionalized parameter sets for the SWAT model can be obtained and used for making satisfactory hydrologic response predictions in ungauged watersheds.

  10. Using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to model ecosystem services: A systematic review

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    Francesconi, Wendy; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Pérez-Miñana, Elena; Willcock, Simon P.; Quintero, Marcela

    2016-04-01

    SWAT, a watershed modeling tool has been proposed to help quantify ecosystem services. The concept of ecosystem services incorporates the collective benefits natural systems provide primarily to human beings. It is becoming increasingly important to track the impact that human activities have on the environment in order to determine its resilience and sustainability. The objectives of this paper are to provide an overview of efforts using SWAT to quantify ecosystem services, to determine the model's capability examining various types of services, and to describe the approach used by various researchers. A literature review was conducted to identify studies in which SWAT was explicitly used for quantifying ecosystem services in terms of provisioning, regulating, supporting, and cultural aspects. A total of 44 peer reviewed publications were identified. Most of these used SWAT to quantify provisioning services (34%), regulating services (27%), or a combination of both (25%). While studies using SWAT for evaluating ecosystem services are limited (approximately 1% of SWAT's peered review publications), and usage (vs. potential) of services by beneficiaries is a current model limitation, the available literature sets the stage for the continuous development and potential of SWAT as a methodological framework for quantifying ecosystem services to assist in decision-making.

  11. Advances in the application of the SWAT model for water resources management

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    Jayakrishnan, R.; Srinivasan, R.; Santhi, C.; Arnold, J. G.

    2005-02-01

    Developments in computer technology have revolutionized the study of hydrologic systems and water resources management. Several computer-based hydrologic/water quality models have been developed for applications in hydrologic modelling and water resources studies. Distributed parameter models, necessary for basin-scale studies, have large input data requirements. Geographic information systems (GIS) and model-GIS interfaces aid the efficient creation of input data files required by such models. One such model available for the water resources professional is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a distributed parameter model developed by the United States Department of Agriculture. This paper describes some recent advances made in the application of SWAT and the SWAT-GIS interface for water resources management. Four case studies are presented. The Hydrologic Unit Model for the United States (HUMUS) project used SWAT to conduct a national-scale analysis of the effect of management scenarios on water quantity and quality. Integration of the SWAT model with rainfall data available from the WSR-88D radar network helps us to incorporate the spatial variability of rainfall into the modelling process. This study demonstrates the usefulness of radar rainfall data in distributed hydrologic studies and the potential of SWAT for application in flood analysis and prediction. A hydrologic modelling study of the Sondu river basin in Kenya using SWAT indicates the potential for application of the model in African watersheds and points to the need for development of better model input data sets in Africa, which are critical for detailed water resources studies. The application of SWAT for water quality analysis in the Bosque river basin, Texas demonstrates the strength of the model for analysing different management scenarios to minimize point and non-point pollution, and its potential for application in total maximum daily load (TMDL) studies.

  12. Impact Assessment of Morphological Features on Watersheds Using SWAT Model

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    Kaya, S.; Kutukcu, A.

    2016-12-01

    Defining the morphological characteristics of a basin enables carrying out numerous hydrological assessments such as flow value of the basin. In this study the impacts of morphological features designated for the basins on the flow were analyzed. Related to the basin flow shape, drainage density, bifurcation ratio and texture ratio were evaluated using morphological parameters. In the study, Büyük Menderes River Basin and Gediz River Basin which extend across a long valley and flow into the Aegean Sea, were selected as the study area. In the calculation of morphometric parameters regarding the basins, DTM which has 10 m spatial resolution was used. DTM was used as input data for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool - SWAT model which makes significant contributions to the modelling of big basins for hydrologists. The flow value obtained as a result of operating the model facilitates to verify the conducted morphological analyses. On account of operating the model, hydrological parameters on the basis of sub basins were also obtained, which in return makes it possible to understand the hydrological reactions within the basin. The results of the conducted study can be effectively used for integrated watershed management which requires detailed hydrological parameters can be obtained using modern tools such as numerical models.

  13. Modeling crop water productivity using a coupled SWAT-MODSIM model

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    This study examines the water productivity of irrigated wheat and maize yields in Karkheh River Basin (KRB) in the semi-arid region of Iran using a coupled modeling approach consisting of the hydrological model (SWAT) and the river basin water allocation model (MODSIM). Dynamic irrigation requireme...

  14. Assessing Thermally Stressful Events in a Rhode Island Coldwater Fish Habitat Using the SWAT Model

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    Britta Chambers

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available It has become increasingly important to recognize historical water quality trends so that the future impacts of climate change may be better understood. Climate studies have suggested that inland stream temperatures and average streamflow will increase over the next century in New England, thereby putting aquatic species sustained by coldwater habitats at risk. In this study we evaluated two different approaches for modeling historical streamflow and stream temperature in a Rhode Island, USA, watershed with the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, using (i original SWAT and (ii SWAT plus a hydroclimatological model component that considers both hydrological inputs and air temperature. Based on daily calibration results with six years of measured streamflow and four years of stream temperature data, we examined occurrences of stressful conditions for brook trout (Salvelinus fontinalis using the hydroclimatological model. SWAT with the hydroclimatological component improved modestly during calibration (NSE of 0.93, R2 of 0.95 compared to the original SWAT (NSE of 0.83, R2 of 0.93. Between 1980–2009, the number of stressful events, a moment in time where high or low flows occur simultaneously with stream temperatures exceeding 21 °C, increased by 55% and average streamflow increased by 60%. This study supports using the hydroclimatological SWAT component and provides an example method for assessing stressful conditions in southern New England’s coldwater habitats.

  15. Rainfall-runoff modelling of Ajay river catchment using SWAT model

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    Kangsabanik, Subhadip; Murmu, Sneha

    2017-05-01

    The present study is based on SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) Model which integrates the GIS information with attribute database to estimate the runoff of Ajay River catchment. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a physically based distributed parameter model which has been developed to predict runoff, erosion, sediment and nutrient transport from agricultural watersheds under different management practices. The SWAT Model works in conjunction with Arc GIS. In the present study the catchment area has been delineated using the DEM (Digital Elevation Model) and then divided into 19 sub-basins. For preparation of landuse map the IRS-P6 LISS-III image has been used and the soil map is extracted from HWSD (Harmonized World Soil Database) Raster world soil map. The sub basins are further divided into 223 HRUs which stands for Hydrological Response Unit. Then by using 30 years of daily rainfall data and daily maximum and minimum temperature data SWAT simulation is done for daily, monthly and yearly basis to find out Runoff for corresponding Rainfall. The coefficient of correlation (r) for rainfall in a period and the corresponding runoff is found to be 0.9419.

  16. A multi basin SWAT model analysis of runoff and sedimentation in the Blue Nile, Ethiopia

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    Z. M. Easton

    2010-10-01

    Full Text Available A multi basin analysis of runoff and erosion in the Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia was conducted to elucidate sources of runoff and sediment. Erosion is arguably the most critical problem in the Blue Nile Basin, as it limits agricultural productivity in Ethiopia, degrades benthos in the Nile, and results in sedimentation of dams in downstream countries. A modified version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was developed to predict runoff and sediment losses from the Ethiopian Blue Nile Basin. The model simulates saturation excess runoff from the landscape using a simple daily water balance coupled to a topographic wetness index in ways that are consistent with observed runoff processes in the basin. The spatial distribution of landscape erosion is thus simulated more correctly. The model was parameterized in a nested design for flow at eight and sediment at three locations in the basin. Subbasins ranged in size from 1.3 to 174 000 km2, and interestingly, the partitioning of runoff and infiltrating flow could be predicted by topographic information. Model predictions showed reasonable accuracy (Nash Sutcliffe Efficiencies ranged from 0.53–0.92 with measured data across all sites except Kessie, where the water budget could not be closed; however, the timing of flow was well captured. Runoff losses increased with rainfall during the monsoonal season and were greatest from areas with shallow soils and large contributing areas. Analysis of model results indicate that upland landscape erosion dominated sediment delivery to the main stem of the Blue Nile in the early part of the growing season when tillage occurs and before the soil was wetted up and plant cover was established. Once plant cover was established in mid August landscape erosion was negligible and sediment export was dominated by channel processes and re-suspension of landscape sediment deposited early in the growing season. These results imply that targeting small

  17. Simulating Flash Floods at Hourly Time-Step Using the SWAT Model

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    Laurie Boithias

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Flash floods are natural phenomena with environmental, social and economic impacts. To date, few numerical models are able to simulate hydrological processes at catchment scale at a reasonable time scale to describe flash events with accurate details. Considering a ~810 km2 Mediterranean river coastal basin (southwestern France as a study case, the objective of the present study was to assess the ability of the sub-daily module of the lumped Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT to simulate discharge (1 time-continuously, by testing two sub-basin delineation schemes, two catchment sizes, and two output time-steps; and (2 at flood time-scale, by comparing the performances of SWAT to the performances of the event-based fully distributed MARINE model when simulating flash flood events. We showed that there was no benefit of decreasing the size of the minimum drainage area (e.g., from ~15 km2 down to ~1 km2 when delineating sub-basins in SWAT. We also showed that both the MARINE and SWAT models were equally able to reproduce peak discharge, flood timing and volume, and that they were both limited by rainfall and soil data. Hence, the SWAT model appears to be a reliable modelling tool to predict discharge over long periods of time in large flash-flood-prone basins.

  18. Modelling streamflow from two small South African experimental catchments using the SWAT model

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    Govender, M.; Everson, C. S.

    2005-02-01

    Increasing demand for timber products results in the expansion of commercial afforestation in South Africa. The conversion of indigenous seasonally dormant grassland to evergreen forests results in increased transpiration and ultimately a reduction in catchment runoff, creating a negative impact on the country's scarce water supplies. In order to assist managers in the decision-making processes it is important to be able to accurately assess and predict hydrological processes, and the impact that land use change will have on water resources. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) provides a means of performing these assessments. One of the key strengths of the SWAT model lies in its ability to model the relative impacts of changes in management practices, climate and vegetation on water quantity and quality.The aim of this study was to determine if the SWAT model could reasonably simulate hydrological processes in daily time steps from two small South African catchments. To verify the SWAT model a grassland (C VIgrass) and Pinus patula afforested catchment (C IIpine) were selected from the Cathedral Peak hydrological research station in the KwaZulu Natal Drakensberg mountains. These catchments were chosen because of the availability of detailed hydrological records and suitable land use.Observed and simulated streamflow for C VIgrass and C IIpine were compared. When model fits of observed and simulated streamflow for C VIgrass were acceptable, this parameter set was then used in the configuration of C IIpine. Results show that the model performs well for C VIgrass with reasonable agreement between modelled and observed data (R2 = 0.68). Comparisons for C IIpine show a total oversimulation of streamflow for the period 1950 to 1965, with deviations between observed and modelled data increasing from 1959 to 1965, due to the model not accounting for the increase in ET brought about by the maturing pine plantation.

  19. The modified SWAT model for predicting fecal coliforms in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed, USA.

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    Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A; Kim, Joon Ha; Kim, Jung-Woo; Park, Mi-Hyun

    2012-10-01

    This study assessed fecal coliform contamination in the Wachusett Reservoir Watershed in Massachusetts, USA using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) because bacteria are one of the major water quality parameters of concern. The bacteria subroutine in SWAT, considering in-stream bacteria die-off only, was modified in this study to include solar radiation-associated die-off and the contribution of wildlife. The result of sensitivity analysis demonstrates that solar radiation is one of the most significant fate factors of fecal coliform. A water temperature-associated function to represent the contribution of beaver activity in the watershed to fecal contamination improved prediction accuracy. The modified SWAT model provides an improved estimate of bacteria from the watershed. Our approach will be useful for simulating bacterial concentrations to provide predictive and reliable information of fecal contamination thus facilitating the implementation of effective watershed management. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Calibration and validation of the SWAT model for a forested watershed in coastal South Carolina

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    Devendra M. Amatya; Elizabeth B. Haley; Norman S. Levine; Timothy J. Callahan; Artur Radecki-Pawlik; Manoj K. Jha

    2008-01-01

    Modeling the hydrology of low-gradient coastal watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils is a challenging task due to the complexities in watershed delineation, runoff generation processes and pathways, flooding, and submergence caused by tropical storms. The objective of the study is to calibrate and validate a GIS-based spatially-distributed hydrologic model, SWAT...

  1. Flow forecast by SWAT model and ANN in Pracana basin, Portugal

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    Demirel, M.C.; Venancio, Anabela; Kahya, Ercan

    2009-01-01

    This study provides a unique opportunity to analyze the issue of flow forecast based on the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) and artificial neural network (ANN) models. In last two decades, the ANNs have been extensively applied to various water resources system problems. In this study, the

  2. Anthropogenic factors as an element of uncertainty in hydrological modelling of water yield with SWAT

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    R. Corobov

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available In 2014 the SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool model was used as a basis for follow-up investigations of Moldova’s small rivers potential flow. The first step of the study included the validation of SWAT for local conditions. As an experimental area, the Cogilnic River watershed was selected. Interim steps included the watershed delineation aimed to identify the subwatersheds and the Hydrological Response Units (small entities with the same characteristics of hydrologic soil type, land use and slopes. To address these tasks, the land cover, soil and slope layers, based on the Digital Elevation Model, were integrated in the SWAT environment. These thematic layers, alongside with long-term information on local monthly maximum and minimum temperatures and precipitation, enabled reflecting the differences in hydrological conditions and defining the watershed runoff. However, the validation of the modelling outputs, carried out through comparison of a simulated water yield from the studied watershed with actual Cogilnic streamflow measures, observed in 2010-2012, showed a great discrepancy between these parameters caused by anthropogenic loading on this small river. Thus, a ‘classical’ SWAT modelling needs to account for real environmental conditions and water use in the study area.

  3. Impacts of manure application on SWAT model outputs in the Xiangxi River watershed

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    Liu, Ruimin; Wang, Qingrui; Xu, Fei; Men, Cong; Guo, Lijia

    2017-12-01

    SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model has been widely used to simulate agricultural non-point source (ANPS) pollution; however, the impacts of livestock manure application on SWAT model outputs have not been well studied. The objective of this study was to investigate the environmental effects of livestock manure application based on the SWAT model in the Xiangxi River watershed, which is one of the largest tributaries of the Three Gorges Reservoir in China. Three newly-built manure databases (NB) were created and applied to different subbasins based on the actual livestock manure discharging amount. The calibration and validation values of SWAT model outputs obtained from the NB manure application and the original mixed (OM) manure were compared. The study results are as follows: (1) The livestock industry of Xingshan County developed quickly between 2005 and 2015. The downstream of the Xiangxi River (Huangliang, Shuiyuesi and Xiakou) had the largest livestock amount, and largely accounted for manure, total nitrogen (TN) and total phosphorus (TP) production (>50%). (2) The NB manure application resulted in less phosphorus pollution (1686.35 kg for ORGP and 31.70 kg for MINP) than the OM manure application. Compared with the upstream, the downstream was influenced more by the manure application. (3) The SWAT results obtained from the NB manure had a better calibration and validation values than those from the OM manure. For ORGP, R2 and NSE values were 0.77 and 0.65 for the NB manure calibration; and the same values for the OM manure were 0.72 and 0.61, respectively. For MINP, R2 values were 0.65 and 0.62 for the NB manure and the OM manure, and the NSE values were 0.60 and 0.58, respectively. The results indicated that the built-in fertilizer database in SWAT has its limitation because it is set up for the simulation in the USA. Thus, when livestock manure is considered in a SWAT simulation, a newly built fertilizer database needs to be set up to represent

  4. A simple rule based model for scheduling farm management operations in SWAT

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    Schürz, Christoph; Mehdi, Bano; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    For many interdisciplinary questions at the watershed scale, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT; Arnold et al., 1998) has become an accepted and widely used tool. Despite its flexibility, the model is highly demanding when it comes to input data. At SWAT's core the water balance and the modeled nutrient cycles are plant growth driven (implemented with the EPIC crop growth model). Therefore, land use and crop data with high spatial and thematic resolution, as well as detailed information on cultivation and farm management practices are required. For many applications of the model however, these data are unavailable. In order to meet these requirements, SWAT offers the option to trigger scheduled farm management operations by applying the Potential Heat Unit (PHU) concept. The PHU concept solely takes into account the accumulation of daily mean temperature for management scheduling. Hence, it contradicts several farming strategies that take place in reality; such as: i) Planting and harvesting dates are set much too early or too late, as the PHU concept is strongly sensitivity to inter-annual temperature fluctuations; ii) The timing of fertilizer application, in SWAT this often occurs simultaneously on the same date in in each field; iii) and can also coincide with precipitation events. Particularly, the latter two can lead to strong peaks in modeled nutrient loads. To cope with these shortcomings we propose a simple rule based model (RBM) to schedule management operations according to realistic farmer management practices in SWAT. The RBM involves simple strategies requiring only data that are input into the SWAT model initially, such as temperature and precipitation data. The user provides boundaries of time periods for operation schedules to take place for all crops in the model. These data are readily available from the literature or from crop variety trials. The RBM applies the dates by complying with the following rules: i) Operations scheduled in the

  5. SWAT Model Prediction of Phosphorus Loading in a South Carolina Karst Watershed with a Downstream Embayment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devendra M. Amatya; Manoj K. Jha; Thomas M. Williams; Amy E. Edwards; Daniel R.. Hitchcock

    2013-01-01

    The SWAT model was used to predict total phosphorus (TP) loadings for a 1555-ha karst watershed—Chapel Branch Creek (CBC)—which drains to a lake via a reservoir-like embayment (R-E). The model was first tested for monthly streamflow predictions from tributaries draining three potential source areas as well as the downstream R-E, followed by TP loadings using data...

  6. Modeling nitrate-nitrogen load reduction strategies for the des moines river, iowa using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schilling, K.E.; Wolter, C.F.

    2009-01-01

    The Des Moines River that drains a watershed of 16,175 km2 in portions of Iowa and Minnesota is impaired for nitrate-nitrogen (nitrate) due to concentrations that exceed regulatory limits for public water supplies. The Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was used to model streamflow and nitrate loads and evaluate a suite of basin-wide changes and targeting configurations to potentially reduce nitrate loads in the river. The SWAT model comprised 173 subbasins and 2,516 hydrologic response units and included point and nonpoint nitrogen sources. The model was calibrated for an 11-year period and three basin-wide and four targeting strategies were evaluated. Results indicated that nonpoint sources accounted for 95% of the total nitrate export. Reduction in fertilizer applications from 170 to 50 kg/ha achieved the 38% reduction in nitrate loads, exceeding the 34% reduction required. In terms of targeting, the most efficient load reductions occurred when fertilizer applications were reduced in subbasins nearest the watershed outlet. The greatest load reduction for the area of land treated was associated with reducing loads from 55 subbasins with the highest nitrate loads, achieving a 14% reduction in nitrate loads achieved by reducing applications on 30% of the land area. SWAT model results provide much needed guidance on how to begin implementing load reduction strategies most efficiently in the Des Moines River watershed. ?? 2009 Springer Science+Business Media, LLC.

  7. Improving streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model by assimilating remotely sensed soil moisture observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patil, Amol; Ramsankaran, RAAJ

    2017-12-01

    This article presents a study carried out using EnKF based assimilation of coarser-scale SMOS soil moisture retrievals to improve the streamflow simulations and forecasting performance of SWAT model in a large catchment. This study has been carried out in Munneru river catchment, India, which is about 10,156 km2. In this study, an EnkF based new approach is proposed for improving the inherent vertical coupling of soil layers of SWAT hydrological model during soil moisture data assimilation. Evaluation of the vertical error correlation obtained between surface and subsurface layers indicates that the vertical coupling can be improved significantly using ensemble of soil storages compared to the traditional static soil storages based EnKF approach. However, the improvements in the simulated streamflow are moderate, which is due to the limitations in SWAT model in reflecting the profile soil moisture updates in surface runoff computations. Further, it is observed that the durability of streamflow improvements is longer when the assimilation system effectively updates the subsurface flow component. Overall, the results of the present study indicate that the passive microwave-based coarser-scale soil moisture products like SMOS hold significant potential to improve the streamflow estimates when assimilating into large-scale distributed hydrological models operating at a daily time step.

  8. Sediment management modelling in the Blue Nile Basin using SWAT model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. D. Betrie

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Soil erosion/sedimentation is an immense problem that has threatened water resources development in the Nile river basin, particularly in the Eastern Nile (Ethiopia, Sudan and Egypt. An insight into soil erosion/sedimentation mechanisms and mitigation methods plays an imperative role for the sustainable water resources development in the region. This paper presents daily sediment yield simulations in the Upper Blue Nile under different Best Management Practice (BMP scenarios. Scenarios applied in this paper are (i maintaining existing conditions, (ii introducing filter strips, (iii applying stone bunds (parallel terraces, and (iv reforestation. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was used to model soil erosion, identify soil erosion prone areas and assess the impact of BMPs on sediment reduction. For the existing conditions scenario, the model results showed a satisfactory agreement between daily observed and simulated sediment concentrations as indicated by Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency greater than 0.83. The simulation results showed that applying filter strips, stone bunds and reforestation scenarios reduced the current sediment yields both at the subbasins and the basin outlets. However, a precise interpretation of the quantitative results may not be appropriate because some physical processes are not well represented in the SWAT model.

  9. Calibration and Validation of the SWAT2000 Watershed Model for Phosphorus Loading to the Cannonsville Reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tolson, B. A.; Shoemaker, C. A.

    2002-12-01

    A comprehensive modeling effort was undertaken to simulate phosphorus (P) loading to the Cannonsville Reservoir in upstate New York. The Cannonsville Reservoir is one of the City of New York's drinking water supply reservoirs and drains an 1178 km2 watershed that is predominantly agricultural (dairy farming) and forested. The occurrence of eutrophic conditions in the reservoir, due to excessive P loading, resulted in the reservoir being classified as `phosphorus restricted'. This classification restricts future economic growth in the watershed when the growth directly or indirectly increases P loadings. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT2000) was used to model the P loading to the reservoir in order to help investigate the effectiveness of proposed management options for reducing P loading. SWAT2000 is a distributed watershed model developed by the Agricultural Research Service of the United States Department of Agriculture. This study is the first to apply SWAT2000 for P loading predictions in the Northeast US. SWAT2000 model development with respect to P focused initially on developing Cannonsville Watershed specific P inputs. Agricultural practices in the watershed were generalized, initial soil P levels were determined using aggregated watershed-wide soil P test results, manure spreading was based on the available manure masses as projected from local cattle population estimates and manure production characteristics were based on local manure studies. Ten years of daily P loading data were available for calibration and validation of the model. Additional bi-weekly sampling data of surface water P concentrations across the watershed were also utilized to test the spatial performance of the model. Comparison with measured data and further analysis of model equations showed that the model equations for sediment generation under snow melt conditions required modifications. In addition a number of P model parameters required calibration. Calibration results

  10. Assessment of soil erosion risk in Komering watershed, South Sumatera, using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salsabilla, A.; Kusratmoko, E.

    2017-07-01

    Changes in land use watershed led to environmental degradation. Estimated loss of soil erosion is often difficult due to some factors such as topography, land use, climate and human activities. This study aims to predict soil erosion hazard and sediment yield using the Soil and Water Assessment Tools (SWAT) hydrological model. The SWAT was chosen because it can simulate the model with limited data. The study area is Komering watershed (806,001 Ha) in South Sumatera Province. There are two factors land management intervention: 1) land with agriculture, and 2) land with cultivation. These factors selected in accordance with the regulations of spatial plan area. Application of the SWAT demonstrated that the model can predict surface runoff, soil erosion loss and sediment yield. The erosion risk for each watershed can be classified and predicted its changes based on the scenarios which arranged. In this paper, we also discussed the relationship between the distribution of erosion risk and watershed's characteristics in a spatial perspective.

  11. Spatial multiobjective optimization of agricultural conservation practices using a SWAT model and an evolutionary algorithm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rabotyagov, Sergey; Campbell, Todd; Valcu, Adriana; Gassman, Philip; Jha, Manoj; Schilling, Keith; Wolter, Calvin; Kling, Catherine

    2012-12-09

    Finding the cost-efficient (i.e., lowest-cost) ways of targeting conservation practice investments for the achievement of specific water quality goals across the landscape is of primary importance in watershed management. Traditional economics methods of finding the lowest-cost solution in the watershed context (e.g.,(5,12,20)) assume that off-site impacts can be accurately described as a proportion of on-site pollution generated. Such approaches are unlikely to be representative of the actual pollution process in a watershed, where the impacts of polluting sources are often determined by complex biophysical processes. The use of modern physically-based, spatially distributed hydrologic simulation models allows for a greater degree of realism in terms of process representation but requires a development of a simulation-optimization framework where the model becomes an integral part of optimization. Evolutionary algorithms appear to be a particularly useful optimization tool, able to deal with the combinatorial nature of a watershed simulation-optimization problem and allowing the use of the full water quality model. Evolutionary algorithms treat a particular spatial allocation of conservation practices in a watershed as a candidate solution and utilize sets (populations) of candidate solutions iteratively applying stochastic operators of selection, recombination, and mutation to find improvements with respect to the optimization objectives. The optimization objectives in this case are to minimize nonpoint-source pollution in the watershed, simultaneously minimizing the cost of conservation practices. A recent and expanding set of research is attempting to use similar methods and integrates water quality models with broadly defined evolutionary optimization methods(3,4,9,10,13-15,17-19,22,23,25). In this application, we demonstrate a program which follows Rabotyagov et al.'s approach and integrates a modern and commonly used SWAT water quality model(7) with a

  12. Assessment of Climate Change Impacts on Water Resources in Zarrinehrud Basin Using SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Mansouri

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper evaluate impacts of climate change on temperature, rainfall and runoff in the future Using statistical model, LARS-WG, and conceptual hydrological model, SWAT. In order to the Zarrinehrud river basin, as the biggest catchment of the Lake Urmia basin was selected as a case study. At first, for the generation of future weather data in the basin, LARS-WG model was calibrated using meteorological data and then 14 models of AOGCM were applied and results of these models were downscaled using LARS-WG model in 6 synoptic stations for period of 2015 to 2030. SWAT model was used for evaluation of climate change impacts on runoff in the basin. In order to, the model was calibrated and validated using 6 gauging stations for period of 1987-2007 and the value of R2 was between 0.49 and 0.71 for calibration and between 0.54 and 0.77 for validation. Then by introducing average of downscaled results of AOGCM models to the SWAT, runoff changes of the basin were simulated during 2015-2030. Average of results of LARS-WG model indicated that the monthly mean of minimum and maximum temperatures will increase compared to the baseline period. Also monthly average of precipitation will decrease in spring season but will increase in summer and autumn. The results showed that in addition to the amount of precipitation, its pattern will change in the future period, too. The results of runoff simulation showed that the amount of inflow to the Zarrinehrud reservoir will reduce 28.4 percent compared to the baseline period.

  13. Evaluation of Distributed Model Structures in Catchment Scale Modeling to Capture Heterogeneous Landscape Characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julich, S.; Breuer, L.; Vaché, K. B.; Frede, H.

    2007-12-01

    The ability of a model to capture dominant ecological and hydrological processes is a prerequisite for the use of the model in studying impacts of landuse change on the water balance and nutrient fluxes from a watershed. However, in many cases, available model structures do not adequately represent processes of interest. In these cases, a pragmatic response is to revise the structure to better represent key processes. In this paper we outline a model application strategy designed to inject additional realism into a commonly applied model structure. Here we focus on the SWAT model in an application to the mesoscale (514 km 2) Wetter catchment, in central Germany. The catchment is characterized by a heterogeneous landscape structure and characteristics. The southwestern part is formed by a low mountain range with shallow soils over bedrock and steep slopes. Here lateral subsurface stormflow appears to be the dominant runoff generation process. The central and north- eastern regions of the basin are characterized by deep loess born soils and shallow slopes. We hypothesize that the much larger storage potential of the soils promotes vertical infiltration and storage, and that lateral runoff is much less significant. We utilize a variety of SWAT versions to evaluate the potential effects of this hypothesis on the capacity of the model to capture the measured runoff response. Our results indicate that the original SWAT- structure as well as the SWAT-G structure (which was applied to other low mountain catchments in Germany) are not able to acceptably represent the hydrograph. However, a hybrid of the two structures, specifically designed to reflect differences between the mountainous regions and the more gentle topography does result in a satisfactory representation of the hydrograph. The inclusion of elements from of both model structures (original SWAT and SWAT-G) seems to be the best way to reflect our hydrological process understanding, producing results which

  14. Enabling Large Scale Fine Resolution Flood Modeling Using SWAT and LISFLOOD-FP

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Z.; Rajib, A.; Merwade, V.

    2016-12-01

    Due to computational burden, most large scale hydrologic models are not created to generate streamflow hydrographs for lower order ungauged streams. Similarly, most flood inundation mapping studies are performed at major stream reaches. As a result, it is not possible to get reliable flow estimates and flood extents for vast majority of the areas where no stream gauging stations are available. The objective of this study is to loosely couple spatially distributed hydrologic model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), with a 1D/2D hydrodynamic model, LISFLOOD-FP, for large scale fine resolution flood inundation modeling. The model setup is created for the 491,000 km2 drainage area of the Ohio River Basin in the United States. In the current framework, SWAT model is calibrated with historical streamflow data over the past 80 years (1935-2014) to provide streamflow time-series for more than 100,000 NHDPlus stream reaches in the basin. The post-calibration evaluation shows that the simulated daily streamflow has a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency in the range of 0.4-0.7 against observed records across the basin. Streamflow outputs from the calibrated SWAT are subsequently used to drive LISFLOOD-FP and routed along the streams/floodplain using the built-in subgrid solver. LISFLOOD-FP is set up for the Ohio River Basin using 90m digital elevation model, and is executed on high performance computing resources at Purdue University. The flood extents produced by LISFLOOD-FP show good agreement with observed inundation. The current modeling framework lays foundation for near real-time streamflow forecasting and prediction of time-varying flood inundation maps along the NHDPlus network.

  15. Impact of Uncertainty in SWAT Model Simulations on Consequent Decisions on Optimal Crop Management Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnan, N.; Sudheer, K. P.; Raj, C.; Chaubey, I.

    2015-12-01

    The diminishing quantities of non-renewable forms of energy have caused an increasing interest in the renewable sources of energy, such as biofuel, in the recent years. However, the demand for biofuel has created a concern for allocating grain between the fuel and food industry. Consequently, appropriate regulations that limit grain based ethanol production have been developed and are put to practice, which resulted in cultivating perennial grasses like Switch grass and Miscanthus to meet the additional cellulose demand. A change in cropping and management practice, therefore, is essential to cater the conflicting requirement for food and biofuel, which has a long-term impact on the downstream water quality. Therefore it is essential to implement optimal cropping practices to reduce the pollutant loadings. Simulation models in conjunction with optimization procedures are useful in developing efficient cropping practices in such situations. One such model is the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), which can simulate both the water and the nutrient cycle, as well as quantify long-term impacts of changes in management practice in the watershed. It is envisaged that the SWAT model, along with an optimization algorithm, can be used to identify the optimal cropping pattern that achieves the minimum guaranteed grain production with less downstream pollution, while maximizing the biomass production for biofuel generation. However, the SWAT simulations do have a certain level of uncertainty that needs to be accounted for before making decisions. Therefore, the objectives of this study are twofold: (i) to understand how model uncertainties influence decision-making, and (ii) to develop appropriate management scenarios that account the uncertainty. The simulation uncertainty of the SWAT model is assessed using Shuffled Complex Evolutionary Metropolis Algorithm (SCEM). With the data collected from St. Joseph basin, IN, USA, the preliminary results indicate that model

  16. An Assessment of Mean Areal Precipitation Methods on Simulated Stream Flow: A SWAT Model Performance Assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean Zeiger

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Accurate mean areal precipitation (MAP estimates are essential input forcings for hydrologic models. However, the selection of the most accurate method to estimate MAP can be daunting because there are numerous methods to choose from (e.g., proximate gauge, direct weighted average, surface-fitting, and remotely sensed methods. Multiple methods (n = 19 were used to estimate MAP with precipitation data from 11 distributed monitoring sites, and 4 remotely sensed data sets. Each method was validated against the hydrologic model simulated stream flow using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT. SWAT was validated using a split-site method and the observed stream flow data from five nested-scale gauging sites in a mixed-land-use watershed of the central USA. Cross-validation results showed the error associated with surface-fitting and remotely sensed methods ranging from −4.5 to −5.1%, and −9.8 to −14.7%, respectively. Split-site validation results showed the percent bias (PBIAS values that ranged from −4.5 to −160%. Second order polynomial functions especially overestimated precipitation and subsequent stream flow simulations (PBIAS = −160 in the headwaters. The results indicated that using an inverse-distance weighted, linear polynomial interpolation or multiquadric function method to estimate MAP may improve SWAT model simulations. Collectively, the results highlight the importance of spatially distributed observed hydroclimate data for precipitation and subsequent steam flow estimations. The MAP methods demonstrated in the current work can be used to reduce hydrologic model uncertainty caused by watershed physiographic differences.

  17. Modelling of hydrologic processes and potential response to climate change through the use of a multisite SWAT

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gül, G.O.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2010-01-01

    Hydrologic models that use components for integrated modelling of surface water and groundwater systems help conveniently simulate the dynamically linked hydrologic and hydraulic processes that govern flow conditions in watersheds. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one such model...... that allows continuous simulations over long time periods in the land phase of the hydrologic cycle by incorporating surface water and groundwater interactions. This study provides a verified structure for the SWAT to evaluate existing flow regimes in a small-sized catchment in Denmark and examines a simple...... simulation to help quantify the effects of climate change on regional water quantities. SWAT can be regarded among the alternative hydrologic simulation tools applicable for catchments with similar characteristics and of similar sizes in Denmark. However, the modellers would be required to determine a proper...

  18. Application of SWAT-HS, a lumped hillslope model to simulate hydrology in the Cannonsville Reservoir watershed, New York

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hoang, Linh; Schneiderman, Elliot; Mukundan, Rajith; Moore, Karen; Owens, Emmet; Steenhuis, Tammo

    2017-04-01

    Surface runoff is the primary mechanism transporting substances such as sediments, agricultural chemicals, and pathogens to receiving waters. In order to predict runoff and pollutant fluxes, and to evaluate management practices, it is essential to accurately predict the areas generating surface runoff, which depend on the type of runoff: infiltration-excess runoff and saturation-excess runoff. The watershed of Cannonsville reservoir is part of the New York City water supply system that provides high quality drinking water to nine million people in New York City (NYC) and nearby communities. Previous research identified saturation-excess runoff as the dominant runoff mechanism in this region. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a promising tool to simulate the NYC watershed given its broad application and good performance in many watersheds with different scales worldwide, for its ability to model water quality responses, and to evaluate the effect of management practices on water quality at the watershed scale. However, SWAT predicts runoff based mainly on soil and land use characteristics, and implicitly considers only infiltration-excess runoff. Therefore, we developed a modified version of SWAT, referred to as SWAT-Hillslope (SWAT-HS), which explicitly simulates saturation-excess runoff by redefining Hydrological Response Units (HRUs) based on wetness classes with varying soil water storage capacities, and by introducing a surface aquifer with the ability to route interflow from "drier" to "wetter" wetness classes. SWAT-HS was first tested at Town Brook, a 37 km2 headwater watershed draining to the Cannonsville reservoir using a single sub-basin for the whole watershed. SWAT-HS performed well, and predicted streamflow yielded Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies of 0.68 and 0.87 at the daily and monthly time steps, respectively. More importantly, it predicted the spatial distribution of saturated areas accurately. Based on the good performance in the Town Brook

  19. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis for pesticide transport in watershed-scale water quality modeling using SWAT

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Luo Yuzhou [University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035 (China); Zhang Minghua, E-mail: mhzhang@ucdavis.ed [University of California, Davis, CA 95616 (United States); Wenzhou Medical College, Wenzhou 325035 (China)

    2009-12-15

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was calibrated for hydrology conditions in an agricultural watershed of Orestimba Creek, California, and applied to simulate fate and transport of two organophosphate pesticides chlorpyrifos and diazinon. The model showed capability in evaluating pesticide fate and transport processes in agricultural fields and instream network. Management-oriented sensitivity analysis was conducted by applied stochastic SWAT simulations for pesticide distribution. Results of sensitivity analysis identified the governing processes in pesticide outputs as surface runoff, soil erosion, and sedimentation in the study area. By incorporating sensitive parameters in pesticide transport simulation, effects of structural best management practices (BMPs) in improving surface water quality were demonstrated by SWAT modeling. This study also recommends conservation practices designed to reduce field yield and in-stream transport capacity of sediment, such as filter strip, grassed waterway, crop residue management, and tailwater pond to be implemented in the Orestimba Creek watershed. - Selected structural BMPs are recommended for reducing loads of OP pesticides.

  20. User's guide for simulation of waste treatment (SWAT) model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Macal, C.M.

    1979-04-01

    This document is a user's guide for the Simulation of Waste Treatment (SWAT) model computer code. (A detailed description of the logic and assumptions of the model was published previously.) A flow diagram depicting the logic of the SWAT computer code is included. Several river basins or regions can be simulated in a single computer run, with each region having numerous treatment plants. Treatment plants are simulated sequentially to reduce computer storage requirements. All input to the model is in the form of cards and all output is to a line printer. The code is written in FORTRAN IV and consists of approximately 3000 statements. Using the IBM 370/195 under OS, a Gl compiler requires a region of 220K. Execution time is under two minutes for a typical run for a river basin with 23 treatment plants, with each plant having an average of one technology modification over a simulation period of 25 years. In the first section of this report a brief description of the subroutines in the model is given along with an explanation of how the subroutines function in the context of the whole program. The third section indicates formatting for input data; sample input data for a test problem are also presented. Section 4 describes the output resulting from the sample input data. A program listing appears in the appendix.

  1. Modeling seasonal variability of fecal coliform in natural surface waters using the modified SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cho, Kyung Hwa; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; Kim, Minjeong; Pyo, JongCheol; Park, Mi-Hyun; Kim, Young Mo; Kim, Jung-Woo; Kim, Joon Ha

    2016-04-01

    Fecal coliforms are indicators of pathogens and thereby, understanding of their fate and transport in surface waters is important to protect drinking water sources and public health. We compiled fecal coliform observations from four different sites in the USA and Korea and found a seasonal variability with a significant connection to temperature levels. In all observations, fecal coliform concentrations were relatively higher in summer and lower during the winter season. This could be explained by the seasonal dominance of growth or die-off of bacteria in soil and in-stream. Existing hydrologic models, however, have limitations in simulating the seasonal variability of fecal coliform. Soil and in-stream bacterial modules of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model are oversimplified in that they exclude simulations of alternating bacterial growth. This study develops a new bacteria subroutine for the SWAT in an attempt to improve its prediction accuracy. We introduced critical temperatures as a parameter to simulate the onset of bacterial growth/die-off and to reproduce the seasonal variability of bacteria. The module developed in this study will improve modeling for environmental management schemes.

  2. GIS-Based Hydrological Modelling Using Swat: Case Study of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Hydrological modeling tools have been increasingly used worldwide in the management of water resources at watershed level. The application of these tools have been improved in recent time through the advent of remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques which enhance the use of spatially ...

  3. Calibration of SWAT model for woody plant encroachment using paired experimental watershed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Lei; Zou, Chris B.; Will, Rodney E.; Stebler, Elaine

    2015-04-01

    Globally, rangeland has been undergoing a transition from herbaceous dominated grasslands into tree or shrub dominated woodlands with great uncertainty of associated changes in water budget. Previous modeling studies simulated the impact of woody plant encroachment on hydrological processes using models calibrated and constrained primarily by historic streamflow from intermediate sized watersheds. In this study, we calibrated the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model), a widely used model for cropping and grazing systems, for a prolifically encroaching juniper species, eastern redcedar (Juniperus virginiana), in the south-central Great Plains using species-specific biophysical and hydrological parameters and in situ meteorological forcing from three pairs of experimental watersheds (grassland versus eastern redcedar woodland) for a period of 3-years covering a dry-to-wet cycle. The multiple paired watersheds eliminated the potentially confounding edaphic and topographic influences from changes in hydrological processes related to woody encroachment. The SWAT model was optimized with the Shuffled complexes with Principal component analysis (SP-UCI) algorithm developed from the Shuffled Complexes Evolution (SCE_UA). The mean Nash-Sutcliff coefficient (NSCE) values of the calibrated model for daily and monthly runoff from experimental watersheds reached 0.96 and 0.97 for grassland, respectively, and 0.90 and 0.84 for eastern redcedar woodland, respectively. We then validated the calibrated model with a nearby, larger watershed undergoing rapid eastern redcedar encroachment. The NSCE value for monthly streamflow over a period of 22 years was 0.79. We provide detailed biophysical and hydrological parameters for tallgrass prairie under moderate grazing and eastern redcedar, which can be used to calibrate any model for further validation and application by the hydrologic modeling community.

  4. Evalution of Long-Term Impacts of Conservation Practice Within the Little River Watershed Using the SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The SWAT model was used to simulate the long-term impacts of conservation practices implemented within the South Georgia Little River Watershed on streamflow hydrology and water quality. Typical practices which have been implemented within the watershed include nutrient management, residue manageme...

  5. Comparison of model performance and simulated water balance using NASIM and SWAT for the Wupper River Basin, Germany

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorza, Paula; Nottebohm, Martin; Scheibel, Marc; aus der Beek, Tim

    2017-04-01

    Under the framework of the Horizon 2020 project BINGO (Bringing INnovation to onGOing water management), climate change impacts on the water cycle in the Wupper catchment area are being studied. With this purpose, a set of hydrological models in NASIM and SWAT have been set up, calibrated, and validated for past conditions using available data. NASIM is a physically-based, lumped, hydrological model based on the water balance equation. For the upper part of the Dhünn catchment area - Wupper River's main tributary - a SWAT model was also implemented. Observed and simulated discharge by NASIM and SWAT for the drainage area upstream of Neumühle hydrometric station (close to Große Dhünn reservoir's inlet) are compared. Comparison of simulated water balance for several hydrological years between the two models is also carried out. While NASIM offers high level of detail for modelling of complex urban areas and the possibility of entering precipitation time series at fine temporal resolution (e.g. minutely data), SWAT enables to study long-term impacts offering a huge variety of input and output variables including different soil properties, vegetation and land management practices. Beside runoff, also sediment and nutrient transport can be simulated. For most calculations, SWAT operates on a daily time step. The objective of this and future work is to determine catchment responses on different meteorological events and to study parameter sensitivity of stationary inputs such as soil parameters, vegetation or land use. Model performance is assessed with different statistical metrics (relative volume error, coefficient of determination, and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency).

  6. Pesticide transport to tile-drained fields in SWAT model – macropore flow and sediment

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Blicher-Mathiesen, Gitte

    2015-01-01

    as a fraction of effective rainfall and transported to the tile drains directly. Macropore sediment transport is calculated similarly to the MACRO model (Jarvis et al., 1999). Mobile pesticide transport is calculated with a decay function with the flow, whereas sorbed pesticides transport is associated......Preferential flow and colloidal facilitated transport via macopores connected to tile drains are the main pathways for pesticide transport from agricultural areas to surface waters in some area. We developed a macropore flow module and a sediment transport module for the Soil and Water Assessment...... Tool (SWAT) to simulate transport of both mobile (e.g. Bentazon) and strongly sorbed (e.g. Diuron) pesticides in tile drains. Macropore flow is initiated when soil water content exceeds a threshold and rainfall intensity exceeds infiltration capacity. The amount of macropore flow is calculated...

  7. Modelling water-harvesting systems in the arid south of Tunisia using SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ouessar

    2009-10-01

    Full Text Available In many arid countries, runoff water-harvesting systems support the livelihood of the rural population. Little is known, however, about the effect of these systems on the water balance components of arid watersheds. The objective of this study was to adapt and evaluate the GIS-based watershed model SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool for simulating the main hydrologic processes in arid environments. The model was applied to the 270-km2 watershed of wadi Koutine in southeast Tunisia, which receives about 200 mm annual rain. The main adjustment for adapting the model to this dry Mediterranean environment was the inclusion of water-harvesting systems, which capture and use surface runoff for crop production in upstream subbasins, and a modification of the crop growth processes. The adjusted version of the model was named SWAT-WH. Model evaluation was performed based on 38 runoff events recorded at the Koutine station between 1973 and 1985. The model predicted that the average annual watershed rainfall of the 12-year evaluation period (209 mm was split into ET (72%, groundwater recharge (22% and outflow (6%. The evaluation coefficients for calibration and validation were, respectively, R2 (coefficient of determination 0.77 and 0.44; E (Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient 0.73 and 0.43; and MAE (Mean Absolute Error 2.6 mm and 3.0 mm, indicating that the model could reproduce the observed events reasonably well. However, the runoff record was dominated by two extreme events, which had a strong effect on the evaluation criteria. Discrepancies remained mainly due to uncertainties in the observed daily rainfall and runoff data. Recommendations for future research include the installation of additional rainfall and runoff gauges with continuous data logging and the collection of more field data to represent the soils and land use. In addition, crop growth and yield monitoring is needed for a proper evaluation of crop production, to

  8. Sediment trapping analysis of flood control reservoirs in Upstream Ciliwung River using SWAT Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rofiq Ginanjar, Mirwan; Putra, Santosa Sandy

    2017-06-01

    The plans of Sukamahi dam and Ciawi dam construction for Jakarta flood risk reduction purpose had been proposed as feasible solutions to be implemented. However, the risk of the dam outlets clogging, caused by the sediment, is important to be anticipated. The prediction of the max sediment concentration in the reservoir is crucial for the dam operation planning. It is important to avoid the flood outlet tunnel clogging. This paper present a hydrologic sediment budget model of The Upstream Ciliwung River Basin, with flood control dam existence scenarios. The model was constructed within SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tools) plugin and run inside the QGIS framework. The free hydrological data from CFSR, soil data from FAO, and topographical data from CGIAR-CSI were implemented as the model input. The model resulted the sediment concentration dynamics of the Sukamahi and Ciawi reservoirs, on some suspended sediment parameter ranges. The sediment trapping efficiency was also computed by different possible dam capacity alternatives. The research findings will give a scientific decision making base for the river authority, in term of flood control dam planning, especially in The Upstream Ciliwung River Basin.

  9. Baseflow simulation using SWAT model in an inland river basin in Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China

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    Y. Luo

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Baseflow is an important component in hydrological modeling. The complex streamflow recession process complicates the baseflow simulation. In order to simulate the snow and/or glacier melt dominated streamflow receding quickly during the high-flow period but very slowly during the low-flow period in rivers in arid and cold northwest China, the current one-reservoir baseflow approach in SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool model was extended by adding a slow- reacting reservoir and applying it to the Manas River basin in the Tianshan Mountains. Meanwhile, a digital filter program was employed to separate baseflow from streamflow records for comparisons. Results indicated that the two-reservoir method yielded much better results than the one-reservoir one in reproducing streamflow processes, and the low-flow estimation was improved markedly. Nash-Sutcliff efficiency values at the calibration and validation stages are 0.68 and 0.62 for the one-reservoir case, and 0.76 and 0.69 for the two-reservoir case. The filter-based method estimated the baseflow index as 0.60, while the model-based as 0.45. The filter-based baseflow responded almost immediately to surface runoff occurrence at onset of rising limb, while the model-based responded with a delay. In consideration of watershed surface storage retention and soil freezing/thawing effects on infiltration and recharge during initial snowmelt season, a delay response is considered to be more reasonable. However, a more detailed description of freezing/thawing processes should be included in soil modules so as to determine recharge to aquifer during these processes, and thus an accurate onset point of rising limb of the simulated baseflow.

  10. Analysis of the spatial variation in the parameters of the SWAT model with application in Flanders, Northern Belgium

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    G. Heuvelmans

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available Operational applications of a hydrological model often require the prediction of stream flow in (future time periods without stream flow observations or in ungauged catchments. Data for a case-specific optimisation of model parameters are not available for such applications, so parameters have to be derived from other catchments or time periods. It has been demonstrated that for applications of the SWAT in Northern Belgium, temporal transfers of the parameters have less influence than spatial transfers on the performance of the model. This study examines the spatial variation in parameter optima in more detail. The aim was to delineate zones wherein model parameters can be transferred without a significant loss of model performance. SWAT was calibrated for 25 catchments that are part of eight larger sub-basins of the Scheldt river basin. Two approaches are discussed for grouping these units in zones with a uniform set of parameters: a single parameter approach considering each parameter separately and a parameter set approach evaluating the parameterisation as a whole. For every catchment, the SWAT model was run with the local parameter optima, with the average parameter values for the entire study region (Flanders, with the zones delineated with the single parameter approach and with the zones obtained by the parameter set approach. Comparison of the model performances of these four parameterisation strategies indicates that both the single parameter and the parameter set zones lead to stream flow predictions that are more accurate than if the entire study region were treated as one single zone. On the other hand, the use of zonal average parameter values results in a considerably worse model fit compared to local parameter optima. Clustering of parameter sets gives a more accurate result than the single parameter approach and is, therefore, the preferred technique for use in the parameterisation of ungauged sub-catchments as part of the

  11. Evaluation of existing and modified wetland equations in the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    The drainage significantly alters flow and nutrient pathways in small watersheds and reliable simulation at this scale is needed for effective planning of nutrient reduction strategies. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been widely utilized for prediction of flow and nutrient loads, but...

  12. Modelling land use change across elevation gradients in district Swat, Pakistan

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Qasim, M.; Termansen, M.; Hubacek, K.; Fleskens, L.

    2013-01-01

    District Swat is part of the high mountain Hindu-Kush Himalayan region of Pakistan. Documentation and analysis of land use change in this region is challenging due to very disparate accounts of the state of forest resources and limited accessible data. Such analysis is, however, important due to

  13. Improving SWAT model performance in the upper Blue Nile Basin using meteorological data integration and subcatchment discretization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polanco, Erwin Isaac; Fleifle, Amr; Ludwig, Ralf; Disse, Markus

    2017-09-01

    The Blue Nile Basin is confronted by land degradation problems, insufficient agricultural production, and a limited number of developed energy sources. Hydrological models provide useful tools to better understand such complex systems and improve water resources and land management practices. In this study, SWAT was used to model the hydrological processes in the upper Blue Nile Basin. Comparisons between a Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) and a conventional ground weather dataset were done under two sub-basin discretization levels (30 and 87 sub-basins) to create an integrated dataset to improve the spatial and temporal limitations of both datasets. A SWAT error index (SEI) was also proposed to compare the reliability of the models under different discretization levels and weather datasets. This index offers an assessment of the model quality based on precipitation and evapotranspiration. SEI demonstrates to be a reliable additional and useful method to measure the level of error of SWAT. The results showed the discrepancies of using different weather datasets with different sub-basin discretization levels. Datasets under 30 sub-basins achieved Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NS) values of -0.51, 0.74, and 0.84; p factors of 0.53, 0.66, and 0.70; and r factors of 1.11, 0.83, and 0.67 for the CFSR, ground, and integrated datasets, respectively. Meanwhile, models under 87 sub-basins achieved NS values of -1.54, 0.43, and 0.80; p factors of 0.36, 0.67, and 0.77; r factors of 0.93, 0.68, and 0.54 for the CFSR, ground, and integrated datasets, respectively. Based on the obtained statistical results, the integrated dataset provides a better model of the upper Blue Nile Basin.

  14. Assessment of land-use change on streamflow using GIS, remote sensing and a physically-based model, SWAT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Y. G. Dos Santos

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims to assess the impact of the land-use changes between the periods 1967−1974 and 1997−2008 on the streamflow of Tapacurá catchment (northeastern Brazil using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model. The results show that the most sensitive parameters were the baseflow, Manning factor, time of concentration and soil evaporation compensation factor, which affect the catchment hydrology. The model calibration and validation were performed on a monthly basis, and the streamflow simulation showed a good level of accuracy for both periods. The obtained R2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values for each period were respectively 0.82 and 0.81 for 1967−1974, and 0.93 and 0.92 for the period 1997−2008. The evaluation of the SWAT model response to the land cover has shown that the mean monthly flow, during the rainy seasons for 1967−1974, decreased when compared to 1997−2008.

  15. Streamflow in the upper Mississippi river basin as simulated by SWAT driven by 20{sup th} century contemporary results of global climate models and NARCCAP regional climate models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Takle, Eugene S.; Jha, Manoj; Lu, Er; Arritt, Raymond W.; Gutowski, William J. [Iowa State Univ. Ames, IA (United States)

    2010-06-15

    We use Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) when driven by observations and results of climate models to evaluate hydrological quantities, including streamflow, in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB) for 1981-2003 in comparison to observed streamflow. Daily meteorological conditions used as input to SWAT are taken from (1) observations at weather stations in the basin, (2) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of regional climate models (RCMs) driven by reanalysis boundary conditions, and (3) daily meteorological conditions simulated by a collection of global climate models (GCMs). Regional models used are those whose data are archived by the North American Regional Climate Change Assessment Program (NARCCAP). Results show that regional models correctly simulate the seasonal cycle of precipitation, temperature, and streamflow within the basin. Regional models also capture interannual extremes represented by the flood of 1993 and the dry conditions of 2000. The ensemble means of both the GCM-driven and RCM-driven simulations by SWAT capture both the timing and amplitude of the seasonal cycle of streamflow with neither demonstrating significant superiority at the basin level. (orig.)

  16. Simulating Crop Evapotranspiration Response under Different Planting Scenarios by Modified SWAT Model in an Irrigation District, Northwest China.

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    Xin Liu

    Full Text Available Modelling crop evapotranspiration (ET response to different planting scenarios in an irrigation district plays a significant role in optimizing crop planting patterns, resolving agricultural water scarcity and facilitating the sustainable use of water resources. In this study, the SWAT model was improved by transforming the evapotranspiration module. Then, the improved model was applied in Qingyuan Irrigation District of northwest China as a case study. Land use, soil, meteorology, irrigation scheduling and crop coefficient were considered as input data, and the irrigation district was divided into subdivisions based on the DEM and local canal systems. On the basis of model calibration and verification, the improved model showed better simulation efficiency than did the original model. Therefore, the improved model was used to simulate the crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios in the irrigation district. Results indicated that crop evapotranspiration decreased by 2.94% and 6.01% under the scenarios of reducing the planting proportion of spring wheat (scenario 1 and summer maize (scenario 2 by keeping the total cultivated area unchanged. However, the total net output values presented an opposite trend under different scenarios. The values decreased by 3.28% under scenario 1, while it increased by 7.79% under scenario 2, compared with the current situation. This study presents a novel method to estimate crop evapotranspiration response under different planting scenarios using the SWAT model, and makes recommendations for strategic agricultural water management planning for the rational utilization of water resources and development of local economy by studying the impact of planting scenario changes on crop evapotranspiration and output values in the irrigation district of northwest China.

  17. SWAT Model Application to Assess the Impact of Intensive Corn‐farming on Runoff, Sediments and Phosphorous loss from an Agricultural Watershed in Wisconsin

    Science.gov (United States)

    The potential future increase in corn-based biofuel may be expected to have a negative impact on water quality in streams and lakes of the Midwestern US due to increased agricultural chemicals usage. This study used the SWAT model to assess the impact of continuous-corn farming o...

  18. Runoff Simulation in the Upper Reaches of Heihe River Basin Based on the RIEMS–SWAT Model

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    Songbing Zou

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available In the distributed hydrological simulations for complex mountain areas, large amounts of meteorological input parameters with high spatial and temporal resolutions are necessary. However, the extreme scarcity and uneven distribution of the traditional meteorological observation stations in cold and arid regions of Northwest China makes it very difficult in meeting the requirements of hydrological simulations. Alternatively, regional climate models (RCMs, which can provide a variety of distributed meteorological data with high temporal and spatial resolution, have become an effective solution to improve hydrological simulation accuracy and to further study water resource responses to human activities and global climate change. In this study, abundant and evenly distributed virtual weather stations in the upper reaches of the Heihe River Basin (HRB of Northwest China were built for the optimization of the input data, and thus a regional integrated environmental model system (RIEMS based on RCM and a distributed hydrological model of soil and water assessment tool (SWAT were integrated as a coupled climate–hydrological RIEMS-SWAT model, which was applied to simulate monthly runoff from 1995 to 2010 in the region. Results show that the simulated and observed values are close; Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency is higher than 0.65; determination coefficient (R2 values are higher than 0.70; percent bias is controlled within ±20%; and root-mean-square-error-observation standard deviation ratio is less than 0.65. These results indicate that the coupled model can present basin hydrological processes properly, and provide scientific support for prediction and management of basin water resources.

  19. Assessing the Water-Resources Potential of Istanbul by Using a Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Hydrological Model

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    Gokhan Cuceloglu

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Uncertainties due to climate change and population growth have created a critical situation for many megacities. Investigating spatio-temporal variability of water resources is, therefore, a critical initial step for water-resource management. This paper is a first study on the evaluation of water-budget components of water resources in Istanbul using a high-resolution hydrological model. In this work, the water resources of Istanbul and surrounding watersheds were modeled using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, which is a continuous-time, semi-distributed, process-based model. The SWAT-CUP program was used for calibration/validation of the model with uncertainty analysis using the SUFI-2 algorithm over the period 1977–2013 at 25 gauge stations. The results reveal that the annual blue-water potential of Istanbul is 3.5 billion m3, whereas the green-water flow and storage are 2.9 billion m3 and 0.7 billion m3, respectively. Watersheds located on the Asian side of the Istanbul megacity yield more blue-water resources compared to the European side, and constitute 75% of the total potential water resources. The model highlights the water potential of the city under current circumstances and gives an insight into its spatial distribution over the region. This study provides a strong basis for forthcoming studies concerning better water-resources management practices, climate change and water-quality studies, as well as other socio-economic scenario analyses in the region.

  20. Aplicación del modelo hidrológico-swat-en una microcuenca agrícola de La Pampa ondulada Application of the hydrologic model - swat - on a micro agricultural basin of the rolling Pampa

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Felipe Behrends Kraemer

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available El modelado hidrológico es a menudo el primer paso en el desarrollo de sistemas de decisión espacial para identificaráreas vulnerables a la contaminación por nutrientes, pesticidas así como también a contaminantes biológicos. En este sentido el SWAT (Soil and Water Assesment Tool fue desarrollado para predecir impactos de las prácticas de manejo de las tierras en las aguas, sedimentos y agroquímicos en cuencas hidrográficas con diferentes suelos, usos y prácticas en largos períodos de tiempo. Aunque el mismo está siendo aplicado en todo el mundo, todavía no esta difundido su uso en la Argentina, no encontrándose al momento reportes al respecto. Este modelo se utilizó en una microcuenca agrícola de la Pampa Ondulada (Argentina y fue calibrado y validado utilizando los valores de escurrimientos medidos in situ. Se encontraron buenas eficiencias a escala diaria (R²: 0,55; R² ENS: 0,52 y pobres a escala mensual (R²: 0,34; R² ENS: 0,04. En la calibración, los escurrimientos fueron sobreestimados en un 31,8% y 32,6% para la escala mensual y diaria respectivamente, mientras que en la validación se sobreestimó un 42,5% para los valores mensuales y un 41,2% para los diarios. La aplicación del SWAT en esta microcuenca agrícola resultó auspiciosa y conduce a la inclusión de dicho modelo en futuros trabajos.A hydrological model is often the first step for the development of spatial decision systems in order to identify vulnerable areas to the pollution by nutrients, pesticides as well as biological contaminants. The SWAT model was developed to predict the impact of land management on water, agrochemicals and sediments in hydrographical basins with different soils, land uses and practices for long time periods. This model is being used all over the world but it has not been applied in Argentina until present. The SWAT model was used in an agricultural microbasin in the Rolling Pampa (Argentina and was calibrated and validated

  1. Quantifying the Contribution of On-Site Wastewater Treatment Systems to Stream Discharge Using the SWAT Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliver, C W; Radcliffe, D E; Risse, L M; Habteselassie, M; Mukundan, R; Jeong, J; Hoghooghi, N

    2014-03-01

    In the southeastern United States, on-site wastewater treatment systems (OWTSs) are widely used for domestic wastewater treatment. The degree to which OWTSs represent consumptive water use has been questioned in Georgia. The goal of this study was to estimate the effect of OWTSs on streamflow in a gauged watershed in Gwinnett County, Georgia using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) watershed-scale model, which includes a new OWTS algorithm. Streamflow was modeled with and without the presence of OWTSs. The model was calibrated using data from 1 Jan. 2003 to 31 Dec. 2006 and validated from 1 Jan. 2007 to 31 Dec. 2010 using the auto-calibration tool SWAT-CUP 4. The daily and monthly streamflow Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients were 0.49 and 0.71, respectively, for the calibration period and 0.37 and 0.68, respectively, for the validation period, indicating a satisfactory fit. Analysis of water balance output variables between simulations showed a 3.1% increase in total water yield at the watershed scale and a 5.9% increase at the subbasin scale for a high-density OWTS area. The percent change in water yield between simulations was the greatest in dry years, implying that the influence of OWTSs on the water yield is greatest under drought conditions. Mean OWTS water use was approximately 5.7% consumptive, contrary to common assumptions by water planning agencies in Georgia. Results from this study may be used by OWTS users and by watershed planners to understand the influence of OWTSs on water quantity within watersheds in this region. Copyright © by the American Society of Agronomy, Crop Science Society of America, and Soil Science Society of America, Inc.

  2. Comparison of SWAT and GeoWEPP model in predicting the impact of stone bunds on runoff and erosion processes in the Northern Ethiopian Highlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Demelash, Nigus; Flagler, Jared; Renschler, Chris; Strohmeier, Stefan; Holzmann, Hubert; Feras, Ziadat; Addis, Hailu; Zucca, Claudio; Bayu, Wondimu; Klik, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Soil degradation is a major issue in the Ethiopian highlands which are most suitable for agriculture and, therefore, support a major part of human population and livestock. Heavy rainstorms during the rainy season in summer create soil erosion and runoff processes which affect soil fertility and food security. In the last years programs for soil conservation and afforestation were initiated by the Ethiopian government to reduce erosion risk, retain water in the landscape and improve crop yields. The study was done in two adjacent watersheds in the Northwestern highlands of Ethiopia. One of the watersheds is developed by soil and water conservation structures (stone bunds) in 2011 and the other one is without soil and water conservation structures. Spatial distribution of soil textures and other soil properties were determined in the field and in the laboratory and a soil map was derived. A land use map was evaluated based on satellite images and ground truth data. A Digital Elevation Model of the watershed was developed based on conventional terrestrial surveying using a total station. At the outlet of the watersheds weirs with cameras were installed to measure surface runoff. During each event runoff samples were collected and sediment concentration was analyzed. The objective of this study is 1) to assess the impact of stone bunds on runoff and erosion processes by using simulation models, and 2) to compare the performance of two soil erosion models in predicting the measurements. The selected erosion models were the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) and the Geospatial Interface to the Water Erosion Prediction Project (GeoWEPP). The simulation models were calibrated/verified for the 2011-2013 periods and validated with 2014-2015 data. Results of this comparison will be presented.

  3. Hydrological simulation in a basin of typical tropical climate and soil using the SWAT model part I: Calibration and validation tests

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donizete dos R. Pereira

    2016-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The SWAT model was qualified for simulating the Pomba River sub-basin in the sites where rainfall representation was reasonable to good. The model can be used in the simulation of maximum, average and minimum annual daily streamflow based on the paired t-test, contributing with the water resources management of region, although the model still needs to be improved, mainly in the representativeness of rainfall, to give better estimates of extreme values.

  4. Integrated modeling approach using SELECT and SWAT models to simulate source loading and in-stream conditions of fecal indicator bacteria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ranatunga, T.

    2016-12-01

    Modeling of fate and transport of fecal bacteria in a watershed is generally a processed based approach that considers releases from manure, point sources, and septic systems. Overland transport with water and sediments, infiltration into soils, transport in the vadose zone and groundwater, die-off and growth processes, and in-stream transport are considered as the other major processes in bacteria simulation. This presentation will discuss a simulation of fecal indicator bacteria (E.coli) source loading and in-stream conditions of a non-tidal watershed (Cedar Bayou Watershed) in South Central Texas using two models; Spatially Explicit Load Enrichment Calculation Tool (SELECT) and Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). Furthermore, it will discuss a probable approach of bacteria source load reduction in order to meet the water quality standards in the streams. The selected watershed is listed as having levels of fecal indicator bacteria that posed a risk for contact recreation and wading by the Texas Commission of Environmental Quality (TCEQ). The SELECT modeling approach was used in estimating the bacteria source loading from land categories. Major bacteria sources considered were, failing septic systems, discharges from wastewater treatment facilities, excreta from livestock (Cattle, Horses, Sheep and Goat), excreta from Wildlife (Feral Hogs, and Deer), Pet waste (mainly from Dogs), and runoff from urban surfaces. The estimated source loads were input to the SWAT model in order to simulate the transport through the land and in-stream conditions. The calibrated SWAT model was then used to estimate the indicator bacteria in-stream concentrations for future years based on H-GAC's regional land use, population and household projections (up to 2040). Based on the in-stream reductions required to meet the water quality standards, the corresponding required source load reductions were estimated.

  5. Evaluation of non-point source pollution reduction by applying best management practices using a SWAT model and QuickBird high resolution satellite imagery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, MiSeon; Park, GeunAe; Park, MinJi; Park, JongYoon; Lee, JiWan; Kim, SeongJoon

    2010-01-01

    This study evaluated the reduction effect of non-point source pollution by applying best management practices (BMPs) to a 1.21 km2 small agricultural watershed using a SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) model. Two meter QuickBird land use data were prepared for the watershed. The SWAT was calibrated and validated using daily streamflow and monthly water quality (total phosphorus (TP), total nitrogen (TN), and suspended solids (SS)) records from 1999 to 2000 and from 2001 to 2002. The average Nash and Sutcliffe model efficiency was 0.63 for the streamflow and the coefficients of determination were 0.88, 0.72, and 0.68 for SS, TN, and TP, respectively. Four BMP scenarios viz. the application of vegetation filter strip and riparian buffer system, the regulation of Universal Soil Loss Equation P factor, and the fertilizing control amount for crops were applied and analyzed.

  6. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells D.; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2 concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085-2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of ˜ 70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater increased rate of 5.2 kg N ha-1 in

  7. Comparative analyses of hydrological responses of two adjacent watersheds to climate variability and change using the SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Yeo, In-Young; Sadeghi, Ali M.; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, Wells; Lang, Megan W.; Sharifi, Amir

    2018-01-01

    Water quality problems in the Chesapeake Bay Watershed (CBW) are expected to be exacerbated by climate variability and change. However, climate impacts on agricultural lands and resultant nutrient loads into surface water resources are largely unknown. This study evaluated the impacts of climate variability and change on two adjacent watersheds in the Coastal Plain of the CBW, using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. We prepared six climate sensitivity scenarios to assess the individual impacts of variations in CO2concentration (590 and 850 ppm), precipitation increase (11 and 21 %), and temperature increase (2.9 and 5.0 °C), based on regional general circulation model (GCM) projections. Further, we considered the ensemble of five GCM projections (2085–2098) under the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 8.5 scenario to evaluate simultaneous changes in CO2, precipitation, and temperature. Using SWAT model simulations from 2001 to 2014 as a baseline scenario, predicted hydrologic outputs (water and nitrate budgets) and crop growth were analyzed. Compared to the baseline scenario, a precipitation increase of 21 % and elevated CO2 concentration of 850 ppm significantly increased streamflow and nitrate loads by 50 and 52 %, respectively, while a temperature increase of 5.0 °C reduced streamflow and nitrate loads by 12 and 13 %, respectively. Crop biomass increased with elevated CO2 concentrations due to enhanced radiation- and water-use efficiency, while it decreased with precipitation and temperature increases. Over the GCM ensemble mean, annual streamflow and nitrate loads showed an increase of  ∼  70 % relative to the baseline scenario, due to elevated CO2 concentrations and precipitation increase. Different hydrological responses to climate change were observed from the two watersheds, due to contrasting land use and soil characteristics. The watershed with a larger percent of croplands demonstrated a greater

  8. Calibration and validation of SWAT model for estimating water balance and nitrogen losses in a small agricultural watershed in central Poland

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Smarzyńska Karolina

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT ver. 2005 was applied to study water balance and nitrogen load pathways in a small agricultural watershed in the lowlands of central Poland. The natural flow regime of the Zgłowiączka River was strongly modified by human activity (deforestation and installation of a subsurface drainage system to facilitate stable crop production. SWAT was calibrated for daily and monthly discharge and monthly nitrate nitrogen load. Model efficiency was tested using manual techniques (subjective and evaluation statistics (objective. Values of Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE, coefficient of determination (R2 and percentage of bias for daily/monthly discharge simulations and monthly load indicated good or very good fit of simulated discharge and nitrate nitrogen load to the observed data set. Model precision and accuracy of fit was proved in validation. The calibrated and validated SWAT was used to assess water balance and nitrogen fluxes in the watershed. According to the results, the share of tile drainage in water yield is equal to 78%. The model analysis indicated the most significant pathway of NO3-N to surface waters in the study area, namely the tile drainage combined with lateral flow. Its share in total NO3-N load amounted to 89%. Identification of nitrogen fluxes in the watershed is crucial for decision makers in order to manage water resources and to implement the most effective measures to limit diffuse pollution from arable land to surface waters.

  9. Evaluation of drought impact on groundwater recharge rate using SWAT and Hydrus models on an agricultural island in western Japan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Jin

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Clarifying the variations of groundwater recharge response to a changing non-stationary hydrological process is important for efficiently managing groundwater resources, particularly in regions with limited precipitation that face the risk of water shortage. However, the rate of aquifer recharge is difficult to evaluate in terms of large annual-variations and frequency of flood events. In our research, we attempt to simulate related groundwater recharge processes under variable climate conditions using the SWAT Model, and validate the groundwater recharge using the Hydrus Model. The results show that annual average groundwater recharge comprised approximately 33% of total precipitation, however, larger variation was found for groundwater recharge and surface runoff compared to evapotranspiration, which fluctuated with annual precipitation variations. The annual variation of groundwater resources is shown to be related to precipitation. In spatial variations, the upstream is the main surface water discharge area; the middle and downstream areas are the main groundwater recharge areas. Validation by the Hydrus Model shows that the estimated and simulated groundwater levels are consistent in our research area. The groundwater level shows a quick response to the groundwater recharge rate. The rainfall intensity had a great impact on the changes of the groundwater level. Consequently, it was estimated that large spatial and temporal variation of the groundwater recharge rate would be affected by precipitation uncertainty in future.

  10. Global sensitivity analysis of a SWAT model: comparison of the variance-based and moment-independent approaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khorashadi Zadeh, Farkhondeh; Sarrazin, Fanny; Nossent, Jiri; Pianosi, Francesca; van Griensven, Ann; Wagener, Thorsten; Bauwens, Willy

    2015-04-01

    Uncertainty in parameters is a well-known reason of model output uncertainty which, undermines model reliability and restricts model application. A large number of parameters, in addition to the lack of data, limits calibration efficiency and also leads to higher parameter uncertainty. Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) is a set of mathematical techniques that provides quantitative information about the contribution of different sources of uncertainties (e.g. model parameters) to the model output uncertainty. Therefore, identifying influential and non-influential parameters using GSA can improve model calibration efficiency and consequently reduce model uncertainty. In this paper, moment-independent density-based GSA methods that consider the entire model output distribution - i.e. Probability Density Function (PDF) or Cumulative Distribution Function (CDF) - are compared with the widely-used variance-based method and their differences are discussed. Moreover, the effect of model output definition on parameter ranking results is investigated using Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) and model bias as example outputs. To this end, 26 flow parameters of a SWAT model of the River Zenne (Belgium) are analysed. In order to assess the robustness of the sensitivity indices, bootstrapping is applied and 95% confidence intervals are estimated. The results show that, although the variance-based method is easy to implement and interpret, it provides wider confidence intervals, especially for non-influential parameters, compared to the density-based methods. Therefore, density-based methods may be a useful complement to variance-based methods for identifying non-influential parameters.

  11. Simulating historical landscape dynamics using the landscape fire succession model LANDSUM version 4.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Lisa M. Holsinger; Sarah D. Pratt

    2006-01-01

    The range and variation of historical landscape dynamics could provide a useful reference for designing fuel treatments on today's landscapes. Simulation modeling is a vehicle that can be used to estimate the range of conditions experienced on historical landscapes. A landscape fire succession model called LANDSUMv4 (LANDscape SUccession Model version 4.0) is...

  12. Assessing the impacts of sustainable agricultural practices for water quality improvements in the Vouga catchment (Portugal) using the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rocha, João; Roebeling, Peter; Rial-Rivas, María Ermitas

    2015-12-01

    The extensive use of fertilizers has become one of the most challenging environmental issues in agricultural catchment areas. In order to reduce the negative impacts from agricultural activities and to accomplish the objectives of the European Water Framework Directive we must consider the implementation of sustainable agricultural practices. In this study, we assess sustainable agricultural practices based on reductions in N-fertilizer application rates (from 100% to 0%) and N-application methods (single, split and slow-release) across key agricultural land use classes in the Vouga catchment, Portugal. The SWAT model was used to relate sustainable agricultural practices, agricultural yields and N-NO3 water pollution deliveries. Results show that crop yields as well as N-NO3 exportation rates decrease with reductions in N-application rates and single N-application methods lead to lower crop yields and higher N-NO3 exportation rates as compared to split and slow-release N-application methods. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Macrophyte growth module for the SWAT model – impact of climate change and management on stream ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lu, Shenglan; Trolle, Dennis; Erfurt, Jytte

    To access how multiple stressors affect the water quantity and quality and stream ecology at catchment scale under various management and climate change scenarios, we implemented macrophyte growth modules for the Soil and Water Assessment Tool version 2012 (SWAT). The macrophyte growth module ori...

  14. Process-based hydrological modeling using SWAT: The effect of permafrost on water resources in the large-scale river catchment Kharaa / Mongolia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hülsmann, L.; Geyer, T.; Karthe, D.; Priess, J.; Schweitzer, C.

    2012-04-01

    In this study, the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was applied to obtain a better understanding of hydrological processes in the semi-arid catchment of the Kharaa River in Northern Mongolia. The transient, physical-based model SWAT was set up using spatial datasets on soil, land use, climate, and stream network provided by the project "IWRM-MoMo" to (i.) simulate the water balance components of the basin and (ii.) to identify potential gaps in the input data. We found that the SWAT model satisfactorily reflects the hydrological processes in the catchment and simulates river runoff as a response to strong rainfall events as well as to snow and ice melt. To obtain correct runoff volumes during spring, permafrost has to be considered. Permafrost-influenced soils constrain water flow in the frozen layer, so that percolation out of the active layer is hampered (Woo 2011). This effect is reproduced in SWAT by assigning an impermeable layer in the subsurface to the areas dominated by permafrost. The simulations indicate that in these regions groundwater resources are limited as a consequence of impermeable ground ice. In addition, groundwater recharge rates in the catchment are generally low due to high evaporation rates (80-90 %). Consequently the base flow contribution is small. Further studies on the estimation of groundwater recharge rates should be carried out, since groundwater is an important resource for water supply. Model results indicate that the non-uniformity of the precipitation distribution was not sufficiently covered by the interpolated input data, so that precipitation and runoff volumes are partially over- or underestimated. Since precipitation defines the overall water availability in river catchments (Baumgartner 1982), additional climate records would considerably improve model outputs. As a consequence of large evapotranspiration losses, discharge as well as groundwater recharge estimates were identified to be highly sensitive to

  15. Simulation of lateral flow with SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calibration of the SWAT model for the Goodwater Creek Experimental Watershed (GCEW) showed that percolation through the restrictive claypan layer, lateral flow above that layer, and redistribution of excess moisture up to the ground surface were not correctly simulated. In addition, surface runoff a...

  16. How to constrain multi-objective calibrations of the SWAT model using water balance components

    Science.gov (United States)

    Automated procedures are often used to provide adequate fits between hydrologic model estimates and observed data. While the models may provide good fits based upon numeric criteria, they may still not accurately represent the basic hydrologic characteristics of the represented watershed. Here we ...

  17. Evaluating the SWAT model for a low-gradient forested watershed in coastal South Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    D.M. Amatya; M.K. Jha.

    2011-01-01

    Modeling the hydrology of low�]gradient forested watersheds on shallow, poorly drained soils of the coastal plain is a challenging task due to complexities in watershed delineation, microtopography, evapotranspiration, runoff generation processes and pathways including flooding and submergence caused by tropical storms, and complexity of vegetation species....

  18. Algorithm Theory - SWAT 2006

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    issues of theoretical algorithmics and applications in various fields including graph algorithms, computational geometry, scheduling, approximation algorithms, network algorithms, data storage and manipulation, combinatorics, sorting, searching, online algorithms, optimization, etc.......This book constitutes the refereed proceedings of the 10th Scandinavian Workshop on Algorithm Theory, SWAT 2006, held in Riga, Latvia, in July 2006. The 36 revised full papers presented together with 3 invited papers were carefully reviewed and selected from 154 submissions. The papers address all...

  19. LEMSI - The Landscape Evolution Model Sensitivity Investigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skinner, Christopher; Coulthard, Tom; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Van De Wiel, Marco

    2017-04-01

    Landscape Evolution Models have been developing through a combination of improvements in model efficiencies and computational power. This improvement has allowed simulations to take on more detail and complexities, pushing the modelling from the realm of pure exploration of major processes, into one of numerical prediction and real-world applications. However, unlike the tools other numerical modelling fields, Landscape Evolution Models have not yet undergone rigorous sensitivity analyses to highlight the main sources of model sensitivity and uncertainty. The Landscape Evolution Model Sensitivity Investigation (LEMSI) is the first large, global analysis of parameter sensitivity within a Landscape Evolution Model. We applied the Morris Method to the CAESAR-Lisflood model, investigating sensitivities to 15 user-defined parameter values and the sensitivities of 14 model output measures, featuring 4,800 individual tests and using over 500,000 cpu hours. This was repeated over two different catchments over 30-year and 1000-year periods. The model showed some sensitivity to most parameters, with variation between the catchments and the timeframe. However, the model showed consistent sensitivity to the choice of sediment transport law throughout, highlighting this as the major source of uncertainty in Landscape Evolution Models. Our results demonstrate the importance of considering parameter uncertainty in Landscape Evolution Modelling, especially if the model is to be used for prediction and/or real-world applications. The reliance on uncertain, deterministic sediment transport laws was shown to be the most important sensitivity in the model, and developing novel, probabilistic approaches could be a solution to this.

  20. A continental-scale hydrology and water quality model for Europe: Calibration and uncertainty of a high-resolution large-scale SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbaspour, K. C.; Rouholahnejad, E.; Vaghefi, S.; Srinivasan, R.; Yang, H.; Kløve, B.

    2015-05-01

    A combination of driving forces are increasing pressure on local, national, and regional water supplies needed for irrigation, energy production, industrial uses, domestic purposes, and the environment. In many parts of Europe groundwater quantity, and in particular quality, have come under sever degradation and water levels have decreased resulting in negative environmental impacts. Rapid improvements in the economy of the eastern European block of countries and uncertainties with regard to freshwater availability create challenges for water managers. At the same time, climate change adds a new level of uncertainty with regard to freshwater supplies. In this research we build and calibrate an integrated hydrological model of Europe using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) program. Different components of water resources are simulated and crop yield and water quality are considered at the Hydrological Response Unit (HRU) level. The water resources are quantified at subbasin level with monthly time intervals. Leaching of nitrate into groundwater is also simulated at a finer spatial level (HRU). The use of large-scale, high-resolution water resources models enables consistent and comprehensive examination of integrated system behavior through physically-based, data-driven simulation. In this article we discuss issues with data availability, calibration of large-scale distributed models, and outline procedures for model calibration and uncertainty analysis. The calibrated model and results provide information support to the European Water Framework Directive and lay the basis for further assessment of the impact of climate change on water availability and quality. The approach and methods developed are general and can be applied to any large region around the world.

  1. SWATMOD-PREP: Graphical user interface for preparing coupled SWAT-modflow simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    This paper presents SWATMOD-Prep, a graphical user interface that couples a SWAT watershed model with a MODFLOW groundwater flow model. The interface is based on a recently published SWAT-MODFLOW code that couples the models via mapping schemes. The spatial layout of SWATMOD-Prep guides the user t...

  2. Sensitivity of resource selection and connectivity models to landscape definition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Katherine A. Zeller; Kevin McGarigal; Samuel A. Cushman; Paul Beier; T. Winston Vickers; Walter M. Boyce

    2017-01-01

    Context: The definition of the geospatial landscape is the underlying basis for species-habitat models, yet sensitivity of habitat use inference, predicted probability surfaces, and connectivity models to landscape definition has received little attention. Objectives: We evaluated the sensitivity of resource selection and connectivity models to four landscape...

  3. Modelling sediment clasts transport during landscape evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carretier, Sébastien; Martinod, Pierre; Reich, Martin; Godderis, Yves

    2016-03-01

    Over thousands to millions of years, the landscape evolution is predicted by models based on fluxes of eroded, transported and deposited material. The laws describing these fluxes, corresponding to averages over many years, are difficult to prove with the available data. On the other hand, sediment dynamics are often tackled by studying the distribution of certain grain properties in the field (e.g. heavy metals, detrital zircons, 10Be in gravel, magnetic tracers). There is a gap between landscape evolution models based on fluxes and these field data on individual clasts, which prevent the latter from being used to calibrate the former. Here we propose an algorithm coupling the landscape evolution with mobile clasts. Our landscape evolution model predicts local erosion, deposition and transfer fluxes resulting from hillslope and river processes. Clasts of any size are initially spread in the basement and are detached, moved and deposited according to probabilities using these fluxes. Several river and hillslope laws are studied. Although the resulting mean transport rate of the clasts does not depend on the time step or the model cell size, our approach is limited by the fact that their scattering rate is cell-size-dependent. Nevertheless, both their mean transport rate and the shape of the scattering-time curves fit the predictions. Different erosion-transport laws generate different clast movements. These differences show that studying the tracers in the field may provide a way to establish these laws on the hillslopes and in the rivers. Possible applications include the interpretation of cosmogenic nuclides in individual gravel deposits, provenance analyses, placers, sediment coarsening or fining, the relationship between magnetic tracers in rivers and the river planform, and the tracing of weathered sediment.

  4. A General Model For Estimating Macroevolutionary Landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boucher, Florian C; Démery, Vincent; Conti, Elena; Harmon, Luke J; Uyeda, Josef

    2017-09-22

    The evolution of quantitative characters over long timescales is often studied using stochastic diffusion models. The current toolbox available to students of macroevolution is however limited to two main models: Brownian motion and the Ornstein-Uhlenbeck process, plus some of their extensions. Here we present a very general model for inferring the dynamics of quantitative characters evolving under both random diffusion and deterministic forces of any possible shape and strength, which can accommodate interesting evolutionary scenarios like directional trends, disruptive selection, or macroevolutionary landscapes with multiple peaks. This model is based on a general partial differential equation widely used in statistical mechanics: the Fokker-Planck equation, also known in population genetics as the Kolmogorov forward equation. We thus call the model FPK, for Fokker-Planck-Kolmogorov. We first explain how this model can be used to describe macroevolutionary landscapes over which quantitative traits evolve and, more importantly, we detail how it can be fitted to empirical data. Using simulations, we show that the model has good behavior both in terms of discrimination from alternative models and in terms of parameter inference. We provide R code to fit the model to empirical data using either maximum-likelihood or Bayesian estimation, and illustrate the use of this code with two empirical examples of body mass evolution in mammals. FPK should greatly expand the set of macroevolutionary scenarios that can be studied since it opens the way to estimating macroevolutionary landscapes of any conceivable shape. © The Author(s) 2017. Published by Oxford University Press, on behalf of the Society of Systematic Biologists. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please email: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  5. An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alemayehu, Tadesse; van Griensven, Ann; Taddesse Woldegiorgis, Befekadu; Bauwens, Willy

    2017-09-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a globally applied river basin ecohydrological model used in a wide spectrum of studies, ranging from land use change and climate change impacts studies to research for the development of the best water management practices. However, SWAT has limitations in simulating the seasonal growth cycles for trees and perennial vegetation in the tropics, where rainfall rather than temperature is the dominant plant growth controlling factor. Our goal is to improve the vegetation growth module of SWAT for simulating the vegetation variables - such as the leaf area index (LAI) - for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we present a modified SWAT version for the tropics (SWAT-T) that uses a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI) - a quotient of rainfall (P) and reference evapotranspiration (ETr) - to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania) show that the SWAT-T-simulated LAI corresponds well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) LAI for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland. This indicates that the SMI is reliable for triggering a new annual growth cycle. The water balance components (evapotranspiration and streamflow) simulated by the SWAT-T exhibit a good agreement with remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET-RS) and observed streamflow. The SWAT-T model, with the proposed vegetation growth module for tropical ecosystems, can be a robust tool for simulating the vegetation growth dynamics in hydrologic models in tropical regions.

  6. Advancing computational methods for calibration of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT): Application for modeling climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ercan, Mehmet Bulent

    Watershed-scale hydrologic models are used for a variety of applications from flood prediction, to drought analysis, to water quality assessments. A particular challenge in applying these models is calibration of the model parameters, many of which are difficult to measure at the watershed-scale. A primary goal of this dissertation is to contribute new computational methods and tools for calibration of watershed-scale hydrologic models and the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, in particular. SWAT is a physically-based, watershed-scale hydrologic model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water quality and quantity. The dissertation follows a manuscript format meaning it is comprised of three separate but interrelated research studies. The first two research studies focus on SWAT model calibration, and the third research study presents an application of the new calibration methods and tools to study climate change impacts on water resources in the Upper Neuse Watershed of North Carolina using SWAT. The objective of the first two studies is to overcome computational challenges associated with calibration of SWAT models. The first study evaluates a parallel SWAT calibration tool built using the Windows Azure cloud environment and a parallel version of the Dynamically Dimensioned Search (DDS) calibration method modified to run in Azure. The calibration tool was tested for six model scenarios constructed using three watersheds of increasing size (the Eno, Upper Neuse, and Neuse) for both a 2 year and 10 year simulation duration. Leveraging the cloud as an on demand computing resource allowed for a significantly reduced calibration time such that calibration of the Neuse watershed went from taking 207 hours on a personal computer to only 3.4 hours using 256 cores in the Azure cloud. The second study aims at increasing SWAT model calibration efficiency by creating an open source, multi-objective calibration tool using the Non

  7. Dynamic-landscape metapopulation models predict complex response of wildlife populations to climate and landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2017-01-01

    The increasing need to predict how climate change will impact wildlife species has exposed limitations in how well current approaches model important biological processes at scales at which those processes interact with climate. We used a comprehensive approach that combined recent advances in landscape and population modeling into dynamic-landscape metapopulation...

  8. LANDSCAPE VARIABILITY AND SURFACE FLUX PARAMETERIZATION IN CLIMATE MODELS

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    KLAASSEN, W; CLAUSSEN, M

    The Earth's surface shows variability at the landscape scale (1-10 km); the influence of surface variability at this scale has been analysed to provide a parameterization for use in large-scale atmospheric models with a grid size unable to solve the landscape scale explicitly. Landscape variations

  9. Simulating pattern-process relationships to validate landscape genetic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. J. Shirk; S. A. Cushman; E. L. Landguth

    2012-01-01

    Landscapes may resist gene flow and thereby give rise to a pattern of genetic isolation within a population. The mechanism by which a landscape resists gene flow can be inferred by evaluating the relationship between landscape models and an observed pattern of genetic isolation. This approach risks false inferences because researchers can never feasibly test all...

  10. Can We Model the Scenic Beauty of an Alpine Landscape?

    OpenAIRE

    Erich Tasser; Ulrike Tappeiner; Georg Leitinger; Maria Bacher; Sonja Hölzler; Uta Schirpke

    2013-01-01

    During the last decade, agriculture has lost its importance in many European mountain regions and tourism, which benefits from attractive landscapes, has become a major source of income. Changes in landscape patterns and elements might affect scenic beauty and therefore the socio-economic welfare of a region. Our study aimed at modeling scenic beauty by quantifying the influence of landscape elements and patterns in relationship to distance. Focusing on Alpine landscapes in South and North Ty...

  11. Case Study: Effect of Climatic Characterization on River Discharge in an Alpine-Prealpine Catchment of the Spanish Pyrenees Using the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leticia Palazón

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The new challenges in assessment of water resources demand new approaches and tools, such as the use of hydrologic models, which could serve to assist managers in the prediction, planning and management of catchment water supplies in view of increased demand of water for irrigation and climatic change. Good characterization of the spatial patterns of climate variables is of paramount importance in hydrological modelling. This is especially so when modelling mountain environments which are characterized by strong altitudinal climate gradients. However, very often there is a poor distribution of climatic stations in these areas, which in many cases, results in under representation of high altitude areas with respect to climatic data. This results in the poor performance of the models. In the present study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model was applied to the Barasona reservoir catchment in the Central Spanish Pyrenees in order to assess the influence of different climatic characterizations in the monthly river discharges. Four simulations with different input data were assessed, using only the available climate data (A1; the former plus one synthetic dataset at a higher altitude (B1; and both plus the altitudinal climate gradient (A2 and B2. The model’s performance was evaluated against the river discharges for the representative periods of 2003–2005 and 1994–1996 by means of commonly used statistical measures. The best results were obtained using the altitudinal climate gradient alone (scenario A2. This study provided insight into the importance of taking into account the sources and the spatial distribution of weather data in modelling water resources in mountainous catchments.

  12. A 'Turing' Test for Landscape Evolution Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parsons, A. J.; Wise, S. M.; Wainwright, J.; Swift, D. A.

    2008-12-01

    Resolving the interactions among tectonics, climate and surface processes at long timescales has benefited from the development of computer models of landscape evolution. However, testing these Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) has been piecemeal and partial. We argue that a more systematic approach is required. What is needed is a test that will establish how 'realistic' an LEM is and thus the extent to which its predictions may be trusted. We propose a test based upon the Turing Test of artificial intelligence as a way forward. In 1950 Alan Turing posed the question of whether a machine could think. Rather than attempt to address the question directly he proposed a test in which an interrogator asked questions of a person and a machine, with no means of telling which was which. If the machine's answer could not be distinguished from those of the human, the machine could be said to demonstrate artificial intelligence. By analogy, if an LEM cannot be distinguished from a real landscape it can be deemed to be realistic. The Turing test of intelligence is a test of the way in which a computer behaves. The analogy in the case of an LEM is that it should show realistic behaviour in terms of form and process, both at a given moment in time (punctual) and in the way both form and process evolve over time (dynamic). For some of these behaviours, tests already exist. For example there are numerous morphometric tests of punctual form and measurements of punctual process. The test discussed in this paper provides new ways of assessing dynamic behaviour of an LEM over realistically long timescales. However challenges remain in developing an appropriate suite of challenging tests, in applying these tests to current LEMs and in developing LEMs that pass them.

  13. Fecal bacteria source characterization and sensitivity analysis of SWAT 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) version 2005 includes a microbial sub-model to simulate fecal bacteria transport at the watershed scale. The objectives of this study were to demonstrate methods to characterize fecal coliform bacteria (FCB) source loads and to assess the model sensitivity t...

  14. Analysing the Effects of Forest Cover and Irrigation Farm Dams on Streamflows of Water-Scarce Catchments in South Australia through the SWAT Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong Hanh Nguyen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available To assist water resource managers with future land use planning efforts, the eco-hydrological model Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT was applied to three catchments in South Australia that experience extreme low flow conditions. Particular land uses and management issues of interest included forest covers, known to affect water yields, and farm dams, known to intercept and change the hydrological dynamics in a catchment. The study achieved a satisfactory daily calibration when irrigation farm dams were incorporated in the model. For the catchment dominated by extreme low flows, a better daily simulation across a range of qualitative and quantitative metrics was gained using the base-flow static threshold optimization technique. Scenario analysis on effects of forest cover indicated an increase of surface flow and a reduction of base-flow when native eucalyptus lands were replaced by pastures and vice versa. A decreasing trend was observed for the overall water yield of catchments with more forest plantation due to the higher evapotranspiration (ET rate and the decline in surface flow. With regards to effects of irrigation farm dams, assessment on a daily time step suggested that a significant volume of water is stored in these systems with the water loss rate highest in June and July. On an annual basis, the model indicated that approximately 13.1% to 22.0% of water has been captured by farm dams for irrigation. However, the scenario analysis revealed that the purposes of use of farm dams rather than their volumetric capacities in the catchment determined the magnitude of effects on streamflows. Water extracted from farm dams for irrigation of orchards and vineyards are more likely to diminish streamflows than other land uses. Outputs from this study suggest that the water use restrictions from farm dams during recent drought periods were an effective tool to minimize impacts on streamflows.

  15. Developing approaches for linear mixed modeling in landscape genetics through landscape-directed dispersal simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Row, Jeffrey R.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Lougheed, Stephen C.; Fedy, Bradley C.

    2017-01-01

    Dispersal can impact population dynamics and geographic variation, and thus, genetic approaches that can establish which landscape factors influence population connectivity have ecological and evolutionary importance. Mixed models that account for the error structure of pairwise datasets are increasingly used to compare models relating genetic differentiation to pairwise measures of landscape resistance. A model selection framework based on information criteria metrics or explained variance may help disentangle the ecological and landscape factors influencing genetic structure, yet there are currently no consensus for the best protocols. Here, we develop landscape-directed simulations and test a series of replicates that emulate independent empirical datasets of two species with different life history characteristics (greater sage-grouse; eastern foxsnake). We determined that in our simulated scenarios, AIC and BIC were the best model selection indices and that marginal R2 values were biased toward more complex models. The model coefficients for landscape variables generally reflected the underlying dispersal model with confidence intervals that did not overlap with zero across the entire model set. When we controlled for geographic distance, variables not in the underlying dispersal models (i.e., nontrue) typically overlapped zero. Our study helps establish methods for using linear mixed models to identify the features underlying patterns of dispersal across a variety of landscapes.

  16. Landscape Modelling and Simulation Using Spatial Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amjed Naser Mohsin AL-Hameedawi

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In this paper a procedure was performed for engendering spatial model of landscape acclimated to reality simulation. This procedure based on combining spatial data and field measurements with computer graphics reproduced using Blender software. Thereafter that we are possible to form a 3D simulation based on VIS ALL packages. The objective was to make a model utilising GIS, including inputs to the feature attribute data. The objective of these efforts concentrated on coordinating a tolerable spatial prototype, circumscribing facilitation scheme and outlining the intended framework. Thus; the eventual result was utilized in simulation form. The performed procedure contains not only data gathering, fieldwork and paradigm providing, but extended to supply a new method necessary to provide the respective 3D simulation mapping production, which authorises the decision makers as well as investors to achieve permanent acceptance an independent navigation system for Geoscience applications.

  17. Exploring component-based approaches in forest landscape modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    H. S. He; D. R. Larsen; D. J. Mladenoff

    2002-01-01

    Forest management issues are increasingly required to be addressed in a spatial context, which has led to the development of spatially explicit forest landscape models. The numerous processes, complex spatial interactions, and diverse applications in spatial modeling make the development of forest landscape models difficult for any single research group. New...

  18. Review of forest landscape models: types, methods, development and applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weimin Xi; Robert N. Coulson; Andrew G. Birt; Zong-Bo Shang; John D. Waldron; Charles W. Lafon; David M. Cairns; Maria D. Tchakerian; Kier D. Klepzig

    2009-01-01

    Forest landscape models simulate forest change through time using spatially referenced data across a broad spatial scale (i.e. landscape scale) generally larger than a single forest stand. Spatial interactions between forest stands are a key component of such models. These models can incorporate other spatio-temporal processes such as...

  19. Quantifying the Uncertainty in Streamflow Predictions Using Swat for Brazos-Colorado Coastal Watershed, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, D.; Bhatia, N.; Srivastav, R. K.

    2016-12-01

    Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is one of the most comprehensive hydrologic models to simulate streamflow for a watershed. The two major inputs for a SWAT model are: (i) Digital Elevation Models (DEM), and (ii) Land Use and Land Cover Maps (LULC). This study aims to quantify the uncertainty in streamflow predictions using SWAT for San Bernard River in Brazos-Colorado coastal watershed, Texas, by incorporating the respective datasets from different sources: (i) DEM data will be obtained from ASTER GDEM V2, GMTED2010, NHD DEM, and SRTM DEM datasets with ranging resolution from 1/3 arc-second to 30 arc-second, and (ii) LULC data will be obtained from GLCC V2, MRLC NLCD2011, NOAA's C-CAP, USGS GAP, and TCEQ databases. Weather variables (Precipitation and Max-Min Temperature at daily scale) will be obtained from National Climatic Data Centre (NCDC) and SWAT in-built STASGO tool will be used to obtain the soil maps. The SWAT model will be calibrated using SWAT-CUP SUFI-2 approach and its performance will be evaluated using the statistical indices of Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE), ratio of Root-Mean-Square-Error to standard deviation of observed streamflow (RSR), and Percent-Bias Error (PBIAS). The study will help understand the performance of SWAT model with varying data sources and eventually aid the regional state water boards in planning, designing, and managing hydrologic systems.

  20. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Global Applications

    OpenAIRE

    Arnold, J.; Srinivasan, R; Neitsch, S. (ed.); George, C.; Abbaspour, K.; Hao, F.H.; van Griensven, A.; Gosain, A.; Debels, P.; N.W. Kim; Somura, H.; Ella, Victor B.; Leon, L.; Jintrawet, A.; Manuel R. Reyes

    2009-01-01

    Summary: SWAT,the Soil and Water Assessment Tool is a river basin, or watershed, scale model developed to predict the impact of land management practices on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. [from the editors' preamble] LTRA-5 (Agroforestry and Sustainable Vegetable Production)

  1. Epistasis and the Structure of Fitness Landscapes: Are Experimental Fitness Landscapes Compatible with Fisher's Geometric Model?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blanquart, François; Bataillon, Thomas

    2016-06-01

    The fitness landscape defines the relationship between genotypes and fitness in a given environment and underlies fundamental quantities such as the distribution of selection coefficient and the magnitude and type of epistasis. A better understanding of variation in landscape structure across species and environments is thus necessary to understand and predict how populations will adapt. An increasing number of experiments investigate the properties of fitness landscapes by identifying mutations, constructing genotypes with combinations of these mutations, and measuring the fitness of these genotypes. Yet these empirical landscapes represent a very small sample of the vast space of all possible genotypes, and this sample is often biased by the protocol used to identify mutations. Here we develop a rigorous statistical framework based on Approximate Bayesian Computation to address these concerns and use this flexible framework to fit a broad class of phenotypic fitness models (including Fisher's model) to 26 empirical landscapes representing nine diverse biological systems. Despite uncertainty owing to the small size of most published empirical landscapes, the inferred landscapes have similar structure in similar biological systems. Surprisingly, goodness-of-fit tests reveal that this class of phenotypic models, which has been successful so far in interpreting experimental data, is a plausible in only three of nine biological systems. More precisely, although Fisher's model was able to explain several statistical properties of the landscapes-including the mean and SD of selection and epistasis coefficients-it was often unable to explain the full structure of fitness landscapes. Copyright © 2016 by the Genetics Society of America.

  2. Badlands: A parallel basin and landscape dynamics model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Salles

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Over more than three decades, a number of numerical landscape evolution models (LEMs have been developed to study the combined effects of climate, sea-level, tectonics and sediments on Earth surface dynamics. Most of them are written in efficient programming languages, but often cannot be used on parallel architectures. Here, I present a LEM which ports a common core of accepted physical principles governing landscape evolution into a distributed memory parallel environment. Badlands (acronym for BAsin anD LANdscape DynamicS is an open-source, flexible, TIN-based landscape evolution model, built to simulate topography development at various space and time scales.

  3. Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ephraim M. Hanks; Melvin B. Hooten; Steven T. Knick; Sara J. Oyler-McCance; Jennifer A. Fike; Todd B. Cross; Michael K. Schwartz

    2016-01-01

    We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial...

  4. Simulation modeling of forest landscape disturbances: An overview

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajith H. Perera; Brian R. Sturtevant; Lisa J. Buse

    2015-01-01

    Quantification of ecological processes and formulation of the mathematical expressions that describe those processes in computer models has been a cornerstone of landscape ecology research and its application. Consequently, the body of publications on simulation models in landscape ecology has grown rapidly in recent decades. This trend is also evident in the subfield...

  5. Evaluating choices in multi-process landscape evolution models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.; Claessens, L.; Veldkamp, A.; Schoorl, J.M.

    2011-01-01

    The interest in landscape evolution models (LEMs) that simulate multiple landscape processes is growing. However, modelling multiple processes constitutes a new starting point for which some aspects of the set up of LEMs must be re-evaluated. The objective of this paper is to demonstrate the

  6. Empirical methods for modeling landscape change, ecosystem services, and biodiversity

    Science.gov (United States)

    David Lewis; Ralph. Alig

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to synthesize recent economics research aimed at integrating discrete-choice econometric models of land-use change with spatially-explicit landscape simulations and quantitative ecology. This research explicitly models changes in the spatial pattern of landscapes in two steps: 1) econometric estimation of parcel-scale transition...

  7. Modelling landscape evolution at the flume scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheraghi, Mohsen; Rinaldo, Andrea; Sander, Graham C.; Barry, D. Andrew

    2017-04-01

    The ability of a large-scale Landscape Evolution Model (LEM) to simulate the soil surface morphological evolution as observed in a laboratory flume (1-m × 2-m surface area) was investigated. The soil surface was initially smooth, and was subjected to heterogeneous rainfall in an experiment designed to avoid rill formation. Low-cohesive fine sand was placed in the flume while the slope and relief height were 5 % and 20 cm, respectively. Non-uniform rainfall with an average intensity of 85 mm h-1 and a standard deviation of 26 % was applied to the sediment surface for 16 h. We hypothesized that the complex overland water flow can be represented by a drainage discharge network, which was calculated via the micro-morphology and the rainfall distribution. Measurements included high resolution Digital Elevation Models that were captured at intervals during the experiment. The calibrated LEM captured the migration of the main flow path from the low precipitation area into the high precipitation area. Furthermore, both model and experiment showed a steep transition zone in soil elevation that moved upstream during the experiment. We conclude that the LEM is applicable under non-uniform rainfall and in the absence of surface incisions, thereby extending its applicability beyond that shown in previous applications. Keywords: Numerical simulation, Flume experiment, Particle Swarm Optimization, Sediment transport, River network evolution model.

  8. Modeling biodiversity dynamics in countryside landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereira, Henrique M; Daily, Gretchen C

    2006-08-01

    The future of biodiversity hinges to a great extent on the conservation value of countryside, the growing fraction of Earth's surface heavily influenced by human activities. How many species, and which species, can persist in such landscapes (and analogous seascapes) are open questions. Here we explore two complementary theoretical frameworks to address these questions: species-area relationships and demographic models. We use the terrestrial mammal fauna of Central America to illustrate the application of both frameworks. We begin by proposing a multi-habitat species-area relationship, the countryside species-area relationship, to forecast species extinction rates. To apply it, we classify the mammal fauna by affinity to native and human-dominated habitats. We show how considering the conservation value of countryside habitats changes estimates derived from the classic species-area approach We also examine how the z value of the species-area relationship affects extinction estimates. Next, we present a framework for assessing the relative vulnerability of species to extinction in the countryside, based on the Skellam model of population dynamics. This model predicts the minimum area of contiguous native habitat required for persistence of a species, which we use as an indicator of vulnerability to habitat change. To apply the model, we use our habitat affinity classification of mammals and we estimate life-history parameters by species and habitat type. The resulting ranking of vulnerabilities is significantly correlated with the World Conservation Union (IUCN) Red List assessment.

  9. 3D-models in landscape architecture

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Nijhuis, S.; Stellingwerff, M.C.

    2011-01-01

    Landscape architecture consists of a basic attitude that involves four principles of study and practice. These are: anamnesis (palimpsest), process, three-dimensional space and scale-continuum (relational context). The core of landscape architecture as a design discipline is the construction and

  10. Using landscape disturbance and succession models to support forest management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Brian R. Sturtevant; Anatoly S. Shvidenko; Robert M. Scheller

    2010-01-01

    Managers of forested landscapes must account for multiple, interacting ecological processes operating at broad spatial and temporal scales. These interactions can be of such complexity that predictions of future forest ecosystem states are beyond the analytical capability of the human mind. Landscape disturbance and succession models (LDSM) are predictive and...

  11. Modeling disturbance and succession in forest landscapes using LANDIS: introduction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Sturtevant; Eric J. Gustafson; Hong S. He

    2004-01-01

    Modeling forest landscape change is challenging because it involves the interaction of a variety of factors and processes, such as climate, succession, disturbance, and management. These processes occur at various spatial and temporal scales, and the interactions can be complex on heterogeneous landscapes. Because controlled field experiments designed to investigate...

  12. Improving SWAT for simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yang, Qichun; Zhang, Xuesong

    2016-11-01

    As a widely used watershed model for assessing impacts of anthropogenic and natural disturbances on water quantity and quality, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has not been extensively tested in simulating water and carbon fluxes of forest ecosystems. Here, we examine SWAT simulations of evapotranspiration (ET), net primary productivity (NPP), net ecosystem exchange (NEE), and plant biomass at ten AmeriFlux forest sites across the U.S. We identify unrealistic radiation use efficiency (Bio_E), large leaf to biomass fraction (Bio_LEAF), and missing phosphorus supply from parent material weathering as the primary causes for the inadequate performance of the default SWAT model in simulating forest dynamics. By further revising the relevant parameters and processes, SWAT’s performance is substantially improved. Based on the comparison between the improved SWAT simulations and flux tower observations, we discuss future research directions for further enhancing model parameterization and representation of water and carbon cycling for forests.

  13. Can We Model the Scenic Beauty of an Alpine Landscape?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erich Tasser

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available During the last decade, agriculture has lost its importance in many European mountain regions and tourism, which benefits from attractive landscapes, has become a major source of income. Changes in landscape patterns and elements might affect scenic beauty and therefore the socio-economic welfare of a region. Our study aimed at modeling scenic beauty by quantifying the influence of landscape elements and patterns in relationship to distance. Focusing on Alpine landscapes in South and North Tyrol, we used a photographic questionnaire showing different landscape compositions. As mountain landscapes offer long vistas, we related scenic beauty to different distance zones. Our results indicate that the near zone contributes by 64% to the valuation of scenic beauty, the middle zone by 22%, and the far zone by 14%. In contrast to artificial elements, naturalness and diversity increased scenic beauty. Significant differences between different social groups (origin, age, gender, cultural background occurred only between the local population and tourists regarding great landscape changes. Changes towards more homogenous landscapes were perceived negatively, thus political decision makers should support the conservation of the cultural landscape.

  14. Hierarchical landscape models for endemic unionid mussels

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The specific objectives of this project are to a) assemble existing mussel, water quality, and landscape level (e.g., GIS) data bases; b) conduct expert interviews,...

  15. Assessing the impacts of future climate conditions on the effectiveness of winter cover crops in reducing nitrate loads into the Chesapeake Bay Watershed using SWAT model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sangchul; Sadeghi, Ali M.; Yeo, In-Young; McCarty, Gregory W.; Hively, W. Dean

    2017-01-01

    Winter cover crops (WCCs) have been widely implemented in the Coastal Plain of the Chesapeake Bay watershed (CBW) due to their high effectiveness at reducing nitrate loads. However, future climate conditions (FCCs) are expected to exacerbate water quality degradation in the CBW by increasing nitrate loads from agriculture. Accordingly, the question remains whether WCCs are sufficient to mitigate increased nutrient loads caused by FCCs. In this study, we assessed the impacts of FCCs on WCC nitrate reduction efficiency on the Coastal Plain of the CBW using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Three FCC scenarios (2085 – 2098) were prepared using General Circulation Models (GCMs), considering three Intergovernmnental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) greenhouse gas emission scenarios. We also developed six representative WCC implementation scenarios based on the most commonly used planting dates and species of WCCs in this region. Simulation results showed that WCC biomass increased by ~ 58 % under FCC scenarios, due to climate conditions conducive to the WCC growth. Prior to implementing WCCs, annual nitrate loads increased by ~ 43 % under FCC scenarios compared to the baseline scenario (2001 – 2014). When WCCs were planted, annual nitrate loads were substantially reduced by ~ 48 % and WCC nitrate reduction efficiency water ~ 5 % higher under FCC scenarios relative to the baseline. The increase rate of WCC nitrate reduction efficiency varied by FCC scenarios and WCC planting methods. As CO2 concentration was higher and winters were warmer under FCC scenarios, WCCs had greater biomass and therefore showed higher nitrate reduction efficiency. In response to FCC scenarios, the performance of less effective WCC practices (e.g., barley, wheat, and late planting) under the baseline indicated ~ 14 % higher increase rate of nitrate reduction efficiency compared to ones with better effectiveness under the baseline (e

  16. Modelling landslide dynamics in forested landscapes

    OpenAIRE

    Claessens, L.F.G.

    2005-01-01

    The research resulting in this thesis covers the geological, geomorphological and landscape ecology related themes of the project 'Podzolisation under Kauri (Agathis australis): for better or worse?' supported by theNetherlands Organisation for Scientific Research (NWO). The general objective of this thesis is to investigate landscape, soil and vegetation dynamics in theWaitakereRangesRegionalParkon the North Island of New Zealand, where also all the fieldwork was carried out. The main core o...

  17. Latent spatial models and sampling design for landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hanks, Ephraim M.; Hooten, Mevin B.; Knick, Steven T.; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer A.; Cross, Todd B.; Schwartz, Michael K.

    2016-01-01

    We propose a spatially-explicit approach for modeling genetic variation across space and illustrate how this approach can be used to optimize spatial prediction and sampling design for landscape genetic data. We propose a multinomial data model for categorical microsatellite allele data commonly used in landscape genetic studies, and introduce a latent spatial random effect to allow for spatial correlation between genetic observations. We illustrate how modern dimension reduction approaches to spatial statistics can allow for efficient computation in landscape genetic statistical models covering large spatial domains. We apply our approach to propose a retrospective spatial sampling design for greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) population genetics in the western United States.

  18. Cost-effectiveness and cost-benefit analysis of BMPs in controlling agricultural nonpoint source pollution in China based on the SWAT model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Ruimin; Zhang, Peipei; Wang, Xiujuan; Wang, Jiawei; Yu, Wenwen; Shen, Zhenyao

    2014-12-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) have been widely used in managing agricultural nonpoint source pollution (ANSP) at the watershed level. Most BMPs are related to land use, tillage management, and fertilizer levels. In total, seven BMP scenarios (Reforest1, Reforest2, No Tillage, Contour tillage, and fertilizer level 1-4) that are related to these three factors were estimated in this study. The objectives were to investigate the effectiveness and cost-benefit of these BMPs on ANSP reduction in a large tributary of the Three Gorges Reservoir (TGR) in China, which are based on the simulation results of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. The results indicated that reforestation was the most economically efficient of all BMPs, and its net benefits were up to CNY 4.36×10(7) years(-1) (about USD 7.08×10(6) years(-1)). Regarding tillage practices, no tillage practice was more environmentally friendly than other tillage practices, and contour tillage was more economically efficient. Reducing the local fertilizer level to 0.8-fold less than that of 2010 can yield a satisfactory environmental and economic efficiency. Reforestation and fertilizer management were more effective in reducing total phosphorus (TP), whereas tillage management was more effective in reducing total nitrogen (TN). When CNY 10,000 (about USD 162) was applied to reforestation, no tillage, contour tillage, and an 0.8-fold reduction in the fertilizer level, then annual TN load can be reduced by 0.08, 0.16, 0.11, and 0.04 t and annual TP load can be reduced by 0.04, 0.02, 0.01 and 0.03 t, respectively. The cost-benefit (CB) ratios of the BMPs were as follows: reforestation (207 %) > contour tillage (129 %) > no tillage (114 %) > fertilizer management (96 and 89 %). The most economical and effective BMPs can be designated as follows: BMP1 (returning arable land with slopes greater than 25° to forests and those lands with slopes of 15-25° to orchards), BMP2 (implementing no tillage

  19. Improving the Performance of Temperature Index Snowmelt Model of SWAT by Using MODIS Land Surface Temperature Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Yan; Onishi, Takeo; Hiramatsu, Ken

    2014-01-01

    Simulation results of the widely used temperature index snowmelt model are greatly influenced by input air temperature data. Spatially sparse air temperature data remain the main factor inducing uncertainties and errors in that model, which limits its applications. Thus, to solve this problem, we created new air temperature data using linear regression relationships that can be formulated based on MODIS land surface temperature data. The Soil Water Assessment Tool model, which includes an improved temperature index snowmelt module, was chosen to test the newly created data. By evaluating simulation performance for daily snowmelt in three test basins of the Amur River, performance of the newly created data was assessed. The coefficient of determination (R 2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE) were used for evaluation. The results indicate that MODIS land surface temperature data can be used as a new source for air temperature data creation. This will improve snow simulation using the temperature index model in an area with sparse air temperature observations. PMID:25165746

  20. Adequacy of TRMM satellite rainfall data in driving the SWAT modeling of Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dan; Christakos, George; Ding, Xinxin; Wu, Jiaping

    2018-01-01

    Spatial rainfall data is an essential input to Distributed Hydrological Models (DHM), and a significant contributor to hydrological model uncertainty. Model uncertainty is higher when rain gauges are sparse, as is often the case in practice. Currently, satellite-based precipitation products increasingly provide an alternative means to ground-based rainfall estimates, in which case a rigorous product assessment is required before implementation. Accordingly, the twofold objective of this work paper was the real-world assessment of both (a) the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) rainfall product using gauge data, and (b) the TRMM product's role in forcing data for hydrologic simulations in the area of the Tiaoxi catchment (Taihu lake basin, China). The TRMM rainfall products used in this study are the Version-7 real-time 3B42RT and the post-real-time 3B42. It was found that the TRMM rainfall data showed a superior performance at the monthly and annual scales, fitting well with surface observation-based frequency rainfall distributions. The Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient of Efficiency (NSCE) and the relative bias ratio (BIAS) were used to evaluate hydrologic model performance. The satisfactory performance of the monthly runoff simulations in the Tiaoxi study supports the view that the implementation of real-time 3B42RT allows considerable room for improvement. At the same time, post-real-time 3B42 can be a valuable tool of hydrologic modeling, water balance analysis, and basin water resource management, especially in developing countries or at remote locations in which rainfall gauges are scarce.

  1. Landscape modelling at Regional to Continental scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.

    Most work on simulating landscape evolution has been focused at scales of about 1 Ha, there are still limitations, particularly in understanding the links between hillslope process rates and climate, soils and channel initiation. However, the need for integration with GCM outputs and with Continental Geosystems now imposes an urgent need for scaling up to Regional and Continental scales. This is reinforced by a need to incorporate estimates of soil erosion and desertification rates into national and supra-national policy. Relevant time-scales range from decadal to geological. Approaches at these regional to continental scales are critical to a fuller collaboration between geomorphologists and others interested in Continental Geosystems. Two approaches to the problem of scaling up are presented here for discussion. The first (MEDRUSH) is to embed representative hillslope flow strips into sub-catchments within a larger catchment of up to 5,000 km2. The second is to link one-dimensional models of SVAT type within DEMs at up to global scales (CSEP/SEDWEB). The MEDRUSH model is being developed as part of the EU Desertification Programme (MEDALUS project), primarily for semi-natural vegetation in southern Europe over time spans of up to 100 years. Catchments of up to 2500 km2 are divided into 50-200 sub-catchments on the basis of flow paths derived from DEMs with a horizontal resolution of 50 m or better. Within each sub-catchment a representative flow strip is selected and Hydrology, Sediment Transport and Vegetation change are simulated in detail for the flow strip, using a 1 hour time step. Changes within each flow strip are transferred back to the appropriate sub-catchment and flows of water and sediment are then routed through the channel network, generating changes in flood plain morphology.

  2. An integrated modeling framework of socio-economic, biophysical, and hydrological processes in Midwest landscapes: Remote sensing data, agro-hydrological model, and agent-based model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ding, Deng

    Intensive human-environment interactions are taking place in Midwestern agricultural systems. An integrated modeling framework is suitable for predicting dynamics of key variables of the socio-economic, biophysical, hydrological processes as well as exploring the potential transitions of system states in response to changes of the driving factors. The purpose of this dissertation is to address issues concerning the interacting processes and consequent changes in land use, water balance, and water quality using an integrated modeling framework. This dissertation is composed of three studies in the same agricultural watershed, the Clear Creek watershed in East-Central Iowa. In the first study, a parsimonious hydrologic model, the Threshold-Exceedance-Lagrangian Model (TELM), is further developed into RS-TELM (Remote Sensing TELM) to integrate remote sensing vegetation data for estimating evapotranspiration. The goodness of fit of RS-TELM is comparable to a well-calibrated SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) and even slightly superior in capturing intra-seasonal variability of stream flow. The integration of RS LAI (Leaf Area Index) data improves the model's performance especially over the agriculture dominated landscapes. The input of rainfall datasets with spatially explicit information plays a critical role in increasing the model's goodness of fit. In the second study, an agent-based model is developed to simulate farmers' decisions on crop type and fertilizer application in response to commodity and biofuel crop prices. The comparison between simulated crop land percentage and crop rotations with satellite-based land cover data suggest that farmers may be underestimating the effects that continuous corn production has on yields (yield drag). The simulation results given alternative market scenarios based on a survey of agricultural land owners and operators in the Clear Creek Watershed show that, farmers see cellulosic biofuel feedstock production in the form

  3. An improved SWAT vegetation growth module and its evaluation for four tropical ecosystems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Alemayehu

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is a globally applied river basin ecohydrological model used in a wide spectrum of studies, ranging from land use change and climate change impacts studies to research for the development of the best water management practices. However, SWAT has limitations in simulating the seasonal growth cycles for trees and perennial vegetation in the tropics, where rainfall rather than temperature is the dominant plant growth controlling factor. Our goal is to improve the vegetation growth module of SWAT for simulating the vegetation variables – such as the leaf area index (LAI – for tropical ecosystems. Therefore, we present a modified SWAT version for the tropics (SWAT-T that uses a straightforward but robust soil moisture index (SMI – a quotient of rainfall (P and reference evapotranspiration (ETr – to dynamically initiate a new growth cycle within a predefined period. Our results for the Mara Basin (Kenya/Tanzania show that the SWAT-T-simulated LAI corresponds well with the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS LAI for evergreen forest, savanna grassland and shrubland. This indicates that the SMI is reliable for triggering a new annual growth cycle. The water balance components (evapotranspiration and streamflow simulated by the SWAT-T exhibit a good agreement with remote-sensing-based evapotranspiration (ET-RS and observed streamflow. The SWAT-T model, with the proposed vegetation growth module for tropical ecosystems, can be a robust tool for simulating the vegetation growth dynamics in hydrologic models in tropical regions.

  4. Soil Water and Temperature System (SWATS) Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bond, D

    2005-01-01

    The soil water and temperature system (SWATS) provides vertical profiles of soil temperature, soil-water potential, and soil moisture as a function of depth below the ground surface at hourly intervals. The temperature profiles are measured directly by in situ sensors at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the SGP climate research site. The soil-water potential and soil moisture profiles are derived from measurements of soil temperature rise in response to small inputs of heat. Atmospheric scientists use the data in climate models to determine boundary conditions and to estimate the surface energy flux. The data are also useful to hydrologists, soil scientists, and agricultural scientists for determining the state of the soil.

  5. Modelling landslide dynamics in forested landscapes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Claessens, L.F.G.

    2005-01-01

    The research resulting in this thesis covers the geological, geomorphological and landscape ecology related themes of the project 'Podzolisation under Kauri (Agathis australis): for better or worse?' supported by theNetherlands Organisation

  6. Landscape Evolution Modelling of naturally dammed rivers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    van Gorp, Wouter; Temme, Arnaud J. A. M.; Baartman, Jantiene E. M.; Schoorl, Jeroen M.

    2014-01-01

    Natural damming of upland river systems, such as landslide or lava damming, occurs worldwide. Many dams fail shortly after their creation, while other dams are long-lived and therefore have a long-term impact on fluvial and landscape evolution. This long-term impact is still poorly understood and

  7. Landscape models: helping land managers think big

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachel White; Rhonda Mazza

    2011-01-01

    In a sun-baked, grassy clearing on the east side of the Cascade Range in central Washington, Pacific Northwest (PNW) Research Station landscape ecologist Miles Hemstrom and a group of ecologists and land managers from the Washington Department of Natural Resources (DNR) gather in the shade of a ponderosa pine. Hundreds of years old, this ancient pine has withstood...

  8. Improvement of the R-SWAT-FME framework to support multiple variables and multi-objective functions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yiping; Liu, Shu-Guang

    2014-01-01

    Application of numerical models is a common practice in the environmental field for investigation and prediction of natural and anthropogenic processes. However, process knowledge, parameter identifiability, sensitivity, and uncertainty analyses are still a challenge for large and complex mathematical models such as the hydrological/water quality model, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). In this study, the previously developed R program language-SWAT-Flexible Modeling Environment (R-SWAT-FME) was improved to support multiple model variables and objectives at multiple time steps (i.e., daily, monthly, and annually). This expansion is significant because there is usually more than one variable (e.g., water, nutrients, and pesticides) of interest for environmental models like SWAT. To further facilitate its easy use, we also simplified its application requirements without compromising its merits, such as the user-friendly interface. To evaluate the performance of the improved framework, we used a case study focusing on both streamflow and nitrate nitrogen in the Upper Iowa River Basin (above Marengo) in the United States. Results indicated that the R-SWAT-FME performs well and is comparable to the built-in auto-calibration tool in multi-objective model calibration. Overall, the enhanced R-SWAT-FME can be useful for the SWAT community, and the methods we used can also be valuable for wrapping potential R packages with other environmental models.

  9. Pathogen population dynamics in agricultural landscapes: the Ddal modelling framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papaïx, Julien; Adamczyk-Chauvat, Katarzyna; Bouvier, Annie; Kiêu, Kiên; Touzeau, Suzanne; Lannou, Christian; Monod, Hervé

    2014-10-01

    Modelling processes that occur at the landscape scale is gaining more and more attention from theoretical ecologists to agricultural managers. Most of the approaches found in the literature lack applicability for managers or, on the opposite, lack a sound theoretical basis. Based on the metapopulation concept, we propose here a modelling approach for landscape epidemiology that takes advantage of theoretical results developed in the metapopulation context while considering realistic landscapes structures. A landscape simulator makes it possible to represent both the field pattern and the spatial distribution of crops. The pathogen population dynamics are then described through a matrix population model both stage- and space-structured. In addition to a classical invasion analysis we present a stochastic simulation experiment and provide a complete framework for performing a sensitivity analysis integrating the landscape as an input factor. We illustrate our approach using an example to evaluate whether the agricultural landscape composition and structure may prevent and mitigate the development of an epidemic. Although designed for a fungal foliar disease, our modelling approach is easily adaptable to other organisms. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Meso-scale modeling of a forested landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, Ebba; Arnqvist, Johan; Bergström, Hans

    2014-01-01

    Meso-scale models are increasingly used for estimating wind resources for wind turbine siting. In this study, we investigate how the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model performs using standard model settings in two different planetary boundary layer schemes for a forested landscape and how...

  11. Calibration of Spatially Distributed Hydrological Processes and Model Parameters in SWAT Using Remote Sensing Data and an Auto-Calibration Procedure: A Case Study in a Vietnamese River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lan Thanh Ha

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, evapotranspiration (ET and leaf area index (LAI were used to calibrate the SWAT model, whereas remotely sensed precipitation and other climatic parameters were used as forcing data for the 6300 km2 Day Basin, a tributary of the Red River in Vietnam. The efficacy of the Sequential Uncertainty Fitting (SUFI-2 parameter sensitivity and optimization model was tested with area specific remote sensing input parameters for every Hydrological Response Units (HRU, rather than with measurements of river flow representing a large set of HRUs, i.e., a bulk calibration. Simulated monthly ET correlations with remote sensing estimates showed an R2 = 0.71, Nash–Sutcliffe Efficiency NSE = 0.65, and Kling Gupta Efficiency KGE = 0.80 while monthly LAI showed correlations of R2 = 0.59, NSE = 0.57 and KGE = 0.83 over a five-year validation period. Accumulated modelled ET over the 5-year calibration period amounted to 5713 mm compared to 6015 mm of remotely sensed ET, yielding a difference of 302 mm (5.3%. The monthly flow at two flow measurement stations were adequately estimated (R2 = 0.78 and 0.55, NSE = 0.71 and 0.63, KGE = 0.59 and 0.75 for Phu Ly and Ninh Binh, respectively. This outcome demonstrates the capability of SWAT model to obtain spatial and accurate simulation of eco-hydrological processes, also when rivers are ungauged and the water withdrawal system is complex.

  12. Modelling long-distance seed dispersal in heterogeneous landscapes.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Levey, Douglas, J.; Tewlsbury, Joshua, J.; Bolker, Benjamin, M.

    2008-01-01

    1. Long-distance seed dispersal is difficult to measure, yet key to understanding plant population dynamics and community composition. 2. We used a spatially explicit model to predict the distribution of seeds dispersed long distances by birds into habitat patches of different shapes. All patches were the same type of habitat and size, but varied in shape. They occurred in eight experimental landscapes, each with five patches of four different shapes, 150 m apart in a matrix of mature forest. The model was parameterized with smallscale movement data collected from field observations of birds. In a previous study we validated the model by testing its predictions against observed patterns of seed dispersal in real landscapes with the same types and spatial configuration of patches as in the model. 3. Here we apply the model more broadly, examining how patch shape influences the probability of seed deposition by birds into patches, how dispersal kernels (distributions of dispersal distances) vary with patch shape and starting location, and how movement of seeds between patches is affected by patch shape. 4. The model predicts that patches with corridors or other narrow extensions receive higher numbers of seeds than patches without corridors or extensions. This pattern is explained by edgefollowing behaviour of birds. Dispersal distances are generally shorter in heterogeneous landscapes (containing patchy habitat) than in homogeneous landscapes, suggesting that patches divert the movement of seed dispersers, ‘holding’ them long enough to increase the probability of seed defecation in the patches. Dispersal kernels for seeds in homogeneous landscapes were smooth, whereas those in heterogenous landscapes were irregular. In both cases, long-distance (> 150 m) dispersal was surprisingly common, usually comprising approximately 50% of all dispersal events. 5. Synthesis . Landscape heterogeneity has a large influence on patterns of long-distance seed dispersal. Our

  13. Development and application of SWAT to paddy rice district at watershed scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Yuzhi; Zhang, Chi; Zhou, Huicheng

    2010-05-01

    In irrigation district, especially in paddy rice fields, agricultural irrigation water use has a great influence on the natural water cycle process at watershed scale. In this study, SWAT model was modified to simulate irrigation water demand and quantify the irrigation return flow coefficient and the irrigation impact coefficient in paddy rice fields. Due to the lack of irrigation observed data, a multi-water source module was add to SWAT to build several feasible extraction scenarios, and a new algorithm of automatic irrigation application was implemented too. According to the simulation accuracy, the optimal scenario was selected to use in the new SWAT model, and then was applied to Changge Irrigation District in Hulan River Basin, northeast China. Comparisons between the enhanced model and old one were conducted at outlet cite, sifangtai. The results showed that the proposed SWAT has higher precision during calibration and validation periods, Nash coefficient of the simulated monthly flow was from 0.74 and 0.69 to 0.88 and 0.80 respectively. in addition, the annual averaged irrigation water and return water were 78 million m3 and 41 million m3, the irrigation return flow coefficient was 0.52, average consumption of irrigation water accounted for 10% of the total runoff. In general, the developed model had been greatly improved as compared to original model. Keywords: SWAT model, hydrological modeling, rice, irrigation return flow coefficient, irrigation impact coefficient

  14. What determines area burned in large landscapes? Insights from a decade of comparative landscape-fire modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Russ A. Parsons

    2015-01-01

    Understanding what determines area burned in large landscapes is critical for informing wildland fire management in fire-prone environments and for representing fire activity in Dynamic Global Vegetation Models. For the past ten years, a group of landscape-fire modellers have been exploring the relative influence of key determinants of area burned in temperate and...

  15. Linking an ecosystem model and a landscape model to study forest species response to climate warming

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Thomas R. Crow

    1999-01-01

    No single model can address forest change from single tree to regional scales. We discuss a framework linking an ecosystem process model {LINKAGES) with a spatial landscape model (LANDIS) to examine forest species responses to climate warming for a large, heterogeneous landscape in northern Wisconsin, USA. Individual species response at the ecosystem scale was...

  16. Social network models predict movement and connectivity in ecological landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fletcher, Robert J.; Acevedo, M.A.; Reichert, Brian E.; Pias, Kyle E.; Kitchens, Wiley M.

    2011-01-01

    Network analysis is on the rise across scientific disciplines because of its ability to reveal complex, and often emergent, patterns and dynamics. Nonetheless, a growing concern in network analysis is the use of limited data for constructing networks. This concern is strikingly relevant to ecology and conservation biology, where network analysis is used to infer connectivity across landscapes. In this context, movement among patches is the crucial parameter for interpreting connectivity but because of the difficulty of collecting reliable movement data, most network analysis proceeds with only indirect information on movement across landscapes rather than using observed movement to construct networks. Statistical models developed for social networks provide promising alternatives for landscape network construction because they can leverage limited movement information to predict linkages. Using two mark-recapture datasets on individual movement and connectivity across landscapes, we test whether commonly used network constructions for interpreting connectivity can predict actual linkages and network structure, and we contrast these approaches to social network models. We find that currently applied network constructions for assessing connectivity consistently, and substantially, overpredict actual connectivity, resulting in considerable overestimation of metapopulation lifetime. Furthermore, social network models provide accurate predictions of network structure, and can do so with remarkably limited data on movement. Social network models offer a flexible and powerful way for not only understanding the factors influencing connectivity but also for providing more reliable estimates of connectivity and metapopulation persistence in the face of limited data.

  17. Integrated landscape/hydrologic modeling tool for semiarid watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mariano Hernandez; Scott N. Miller

    2000-01-01

    An integrated hydrologic modeling/watershed assessment tool is being developed to aid in determining the susceptibility of semiarid landscapes to natural and human-induced changes across a range of scales. Watershed processes are by definition spatially distributed and are highly variable through time, and this approach is designed to account for their spatial and...

  18. Utilizing inventory information to calibrate a landscape simulation model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steven R. Shifley; Frank R., III Thompson; David R. Larsen; David J. Mladenoff; Eric J. Gustafson

    2000-01-01

    LANDIS is a spatially explicit model that uses mapped landscape conditions as a starting point and projects the patterns in forest vegetation that will result from alternative harvest practices, alternative fire regimes, and wind events. LANDIS was originally developed for Lake States forests, but it is capable of handling the input, output, bookkeeping, and mapping...

  19. Forest landscape models, a tool for understanding the effect of the large-scale and long-term landscape processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Robert E. Keane; Louis R. Iverson

    2008-01-01

    Forest landscape models have become important tools for understanding large-scale and long-term landscape (spatial) processes such as climate change, fire, windthrow, seed dispersal, insect outbreak, disease propagation, forest harvest, and fuel treatment, because controlled field experiments designed to study the effects of these processes are often not possible (...

  20. Guidelines for using sensitivity analysis and auto-calibration tools for multi-gage or multi-step calibration in SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Autocalibration of a water quality model such as SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool) can be a powerful, labor-saving tool. When multi-gage or multi-pollutant calibration is desired, autocalibration is essential because the time involved in manual calibration becomes prohibitive. The ArcSWAT Interf...

  1. LANDSCAPE MODELING OF CHARACTERISTIC HABITAT SCALES, DISPERSAL, AND CONNECTIVITY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE ORGANISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    A modeling framework was developed to investigate the interactive effects of life history characteristics and landscape heterogeneity on dispersal success. An individual-based model was used to examine how dispersal between resource patches is affected by four landscape characte...

  2. Land destruction and redevelopment - the use of computer based landscape evolution models for post-mining landscape reconstruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, Greg; Willgoose, Garry

    2017-04-01

    Mining provides essential resources for the global economy as well as considerable employment and economic benefits for the community. Mining is necessary for the modern economy. However, in recent decades the scale and environmental impact of mining has grown in line with the global demand for resources. This requires ever increasing areas of land to be disturbed. In particular, open-cast mining removes topsoil, disrupts aquifers and removes uneconomic material to depths of many hundreds of metres. Post-mining, this highly disturbed landscape system requires rehabilitation. The first and most important component of this process is to construct an erosionally stable landform which then can ecologically integrate with the surrounding undisturbed landscape. The scale and importance of this process cannot be overstated as without planned rehabilitation it is likely that a degraded and highly erosional landscape system with result. Here we discuss computer based landform evolution models which provide essential information on the likely erosional stability of the reconstructed landscape. These models use a digital elevation model to represent the landscape and dynamically adjusts the surface in response to erosion and deposition. They provide information on soil erosion rates at the storm event time scale through to annual time scales. The models can also be run to assess landscape evolution at millennial time scales. They also provide information on the type of erosion (i.e. rilling, gullying) and likely gully depths (and if they will occur). Importantly, the latest models have vegetation, armouring and pedogenesis submodels incorporated into their formulation. This allows both the surface and subsurface landscape evolution to be assessed. These models have been widely used and have huge benefits for the assessment of reconstructed landscapes as well as other disturbed landscape systems. Here we outline the state of the art.

  3. Application of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT Model on a small tropical island (Great River Watershed, Jamaica as a tool in Integrated Watershed and Coastal Zone Management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Orville P. Grey

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The Great River Watershed, located in north-west Jamaica, is critical for development, particularly for housing, tourism, agriculture, and mining. It is a source of sediment and nutrient loading to the coastal environment including the Montego Bay Marine Park. We produced a modeling framework using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT and GIS. The calculated model performance statistics for high flow discharge yielded a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE value of 0.68 and a R² value of 0.70 suggesting good measured and simulated (calibrated discharge correlation. Calibration and validation results for streamflow were similar to the observed streamflows. For the dry season the simulated urban landuse scenario predicted an increase in surface runoff in excess of 150%. During the wet season it is predicted to range from 98 to 234% presenting a significant risk of flooding, erosion and other environmental issues. The model should be used for the remaining 25 watersheds in Jamaica and elsewhere in the Caribbean. The models suggests that projected landuse changes will have serious impacts on available water (streamflow, stream health, potable water treatment, flooding and sensitive coastal ecosystems.

  4. Dynamic landscapes: a model of context and contingency in evolution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foster, David V; Rorick, Mary M; Gesell, Tanja; Feeney, Laura M; Foster, Jacob G

    2013-10-07

    Although the basic mechanics of evolution have been understood since Darwin, debate continues over whether macroevolutionary phenomena are driven by the fitness structure of genotype space or by ecological interaction. In this paper we propose a simple model capturing key features of fitness-landscape and ecological models of evolution. Our model describes evolutionary dynamics in a high-dimensional, structured genotype space with interspecies interaction. We find promising qualitative similarity with the empirical facts about macroevolution, including broadly distributed extinction sizes and realistic exploration of the genotype space. The abstraction of our model permits numerous applications beyond macroevolution, including protein and RNA evolution. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Mesoscopic Model for Free Energy Landscape Analysis of DNA sequences

    CERN Document Server

    Tapia-Rojo, R; Mazo, J J; Falo, F; 10.1103/PhysRevE.86.021908

    2012-01-01

    A mesoscopic model which allows us to identify and quantify the strength of binding sites in DNA sequences is proposed. The model is based on the Peyrard-Bishop-Dauxois model for the DNA chain coupled to a Brownian particle which explores the sequence interacting more importantly with open base pairs of the DNA chain. We apply the model to promoter sequences of different organisms. The free energy landscape obtained for these promoters shows a complex structure that is strongly connected to their biological behavior. The analysis method used is able to quantify free energy differences of sites within genome sequences.

  6. Spatial modelling of landscape aesthetic potential in urban-rural fringes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sahraoui, Yohan; Clauzel, Céline; Foltête, Jean-Christophe

    2016-10-01

    The aesthetic potential of landscape has to be modelled to provide tools for land-use planning. This involves identifying landscape attributes and revealing individuals' landscape preferences. Landscape aesthetic judgments of individuals (n = 1420) were studied by means of a photo-based survey. A set of landscape visibility metrics was created to measure landscape composition and configuration in each photograph using spatial data. These metrics were used as explanatory variables in multiple linear regressions to explain aesthetic judgments. We demonstrate that landscape aesthetic judgments may be synthesized in three consensus groups. The statistical results obtained show that landscape visibility metrics have good explanatory power. Ultimately, we propose a spatial modelling of landscape aesthetic potential based on these results combined with systematic computation of visibility metrics. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Hydrology and sediment yield calibration for the Barasona reservoir catchment (Spain) using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazón, Leticia; Navas, Ana

    2013-04-01

    Hydrological and soil erosion models, as Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), have become very useful tools and increasingly serve as vital components of integrated environmental assessments that provide information outside of direct field experiments and causal observation. The purpose of this study was to improve the calibration of SWAT model to use it in an alpine catchment as a simulator of processes related to water quality and soil erosion. SWAT is spatially semi-distributed, agro-hydrological model that operates on a daily time step (as a minimum) at basin scale. It is designed to predict the impact of management on water, sediment and agricultural chemical yields in ungaged catchments. SWAT provides physically based algorithms as an option to define many of the important components of the hydrologic cycle. The input requirements of the model are used to describe the climate, soil properties, topography, vegetation, and land management practices. SWAT analyzes small or large catchments by discretising into sub-basins, which are then further subdivided into hydrological response units (HRUs) with homogeneous land use, soil type and slope. SWAT model (SWAT2009) coupled with a GIS interface (ArcSWAT), was applied to the Barasona reservoir catchment located in the central Spanish Pyrenees. The 1509 km2 agro-forestry catchment presents a mountain type climate, an altitudinal range close to 3000 meters and a precipitation variation close to 1000 mm/km. The mountainous characteristics of the catchment, in addition to the scarcity of climate data in the region, require specific calibration for some processes. Snowfall and snowmelt are significant processes in the hydrologic regime of the area and were calibrated in a previous work. In this work some of the challenges of the catchment to model with SWAT which affected the hydrology and the sediment yield simulation were performed as improvement of the previous calibration. Two reservoirs, a karst system which

  8. Modeling Criminal Activity in Urban Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brantingham, Patricia; Glässer, Uwe; Jackson, Piper; Vajihollahi, Mona

    Computational and mathematical methods arguably have an enormous potential for serving practical needs in crime analysis and prevention by offering novel tools for crime investigations and experimental platforms for evidence-based policy making. We present a comprehensive formal framework and tool support for mathematical and computational modeling of criminal behavior to facilitate systematic experimental studies of a wide range of criminal activities in urban environments. The focus is on spatial and temporal aspects of different forms of crime, including opportunistic and serial violent crimes. However, the proposed framework provides a basis to push beyond conventional empirical research and engage the use of computational thinking and social simulations in the analysis of terrorism and counter-terrorism.

  9. Impact of LUCC on streamflow based on the SWAT model over the Wei River basin on the Loess Plateau in China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Wang

    2017-04-01

    impact on both soil flow and baseflow by compensating for reduced surface runoff, which leads to a slight increase in the streamflow in the Wei River with the mixed landscapes on the Loess Plateau that include earth–rock mountain area.

  10. Determining landscape extent for succession and disturbance simulation modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eva C. Karau; Robert E. Keane

    2007-01-01

    Dividing regions into manageable landscape units presents special problems in landscape ecology and land management. Ideally, a landscape should be large enough to capture a broad range of vegetation, environmental and disturbance dynamics, but small enough to be useful for focused management objectives. The purpose of this study was to determine the optimal landscape...

  11. Overdeepening development in a glacial landscape evolution model with quarrying

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ugelvig, Sofie Vej; Egholm, D.L.; Iverson, Neal R.

    ) introduced a new model for subglacial erosion by quarrying that operates from the theory of adhesive wear. The model is based on the fact that cavities, with a high level of bedrock differential stress, form in the lee of bed obstacles when the sliding velocity is too high to allow for the ice to creep...... are the primary factors influencing the erosion rate of this new quarrying model [Iverson, 2012]. We have implemented the quarrying model in a depth-integrated higher-order ice-sheet model [Egholm et al. 2011], coupled to a model for glacial hydrology. In order to also include the effects of cavitation......, F02012 (2011). Iverson, N. R. A theory of glacial quarrying for landscape evolution models. Geology, v. 40, no. 8, 679-682 (2012). Schoof, C. The effect of cavitation on glacier sliding. Proc. R. Soc. A , 461, 609-627 (2005)....

  12. The influence of changes in land use and landscape patterns on soil erosion in a watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Shanghong; Fan, Weiwei; Li, Yueqiang; Yi, Yujun

    2017-01-01

    It is very important to have a good understanding of the relation between soil erosion and landscape patterns so that soil and water conservation in river basins can be optimized. In this study, this relationship was explored, using the Liusha River Watershed, China, as a case study. A distributed water and sediment model based on the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was developed to simulate soil erosion from different land use types in each sub-basin of the Liusha River Watershed. Observed runoff and sediment data from 1985 to 2005 and land use maps from 1986, 1995, and 2000 were used to calibrate and validate the model. The erosion modulus for each sub-basin was calculated from SWAT model results using the different land use maps and 12 landscape indices were chosen and calculated to describe the land use in each sub-basin for the different years. The variations in instead of the absolute amounts of the erosion modulus and the landscape indices for each sub-basin were used as the dependent and independent variables, respectively, for the regression equations derived from multiple linear regression. The results indicated that the variations in the erosion modulus were closely related to changes in the large patch index, patch cohesion index, modified Simpson's evenness index, and the aggregation index. From the regression equation and the corresponding landscape indices, it was found that watershed erosion can be reduced by decreasing the physical connectivity between patches, improving the evenness of the landscape patch types, enriching landscape types, and enhancing the degree of aggregation between the landscape patches. These findings will be useful for water and soil conservation and for optimizing the management of watershed landscapes. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. SURFACE WATER FLOW IN LANDSCAPE MODELS: 1. EVERGLADES CASE STUDY. (R824766)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many landscape models require extensive computational effort using a large array of grid cells that represent the landscape. The number of spatial cells may be in the thousands and millions, while the ecological component run in each of the cells to account for landscape dynamics...

  14. Landscape-based hydrological modelling : Understanding the influence of climate, topography, and vegetation on catchment hydrology

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gao, H.

    2015-01-01

    In this thesis, a novel landscape-based hydrological model is presented that was developed and tested in numerous catchments around the world with various landscapes and climate conditions. A landscape is considered to consist of a topography and an ecosystem living on it. Firstly, the influence of

  15. A framework for evaluating forest landscape model predictions using empirical data and knowledge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; William D. Dijak; Qia. Wang

    2014-01-01

    Evaluation of forest landscape model (FLM) predictions is indispensable to establish the credibility of predictions. We present a framework that evaluates short- and long-term FLM predictions at site and landscape scales. Site-scale evaluation is conducted through comparing raster cell-level predictions with inventory plot data whereas landscape-scale evaluation is...

  16. Assimilating Remotely Sensed Surface Soil Moisture into SWAT using Ensemble Kalman Filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    In this study, a 1-D Ensemble Kalman Filter has been used to update the soil moisture states of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model. Experiments were conducted for the Cobb Creek Watershed in southeastern Oklahoma for 2006-2008. Assimilation of in situ data proved limited success in the ...

  17. Listening to Landscapes: Modelling Past Soundscapes in GIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimitrij Mlekuz

    2004-11-01

    Full Text Available The main motivation behind this article is to encourage new ways of approaching landscapes (i.e. 'listening to' instead of just 'looking at' them. This article challenges the privileged status of vision in modern humanistic-oriented GIS studies and thereby stresses the importance of multisensuous approaches within the study of past landscapes. The article is divided into three parts. Firstly, it offers some theoretical perspectives on the perception of sound and its role in social life, and reviews some conceptual problems concerning modelling perception within GIS. Secondly, it guides the reader through the process of constructing a digital soundscape model. The main goal of this article is to develop tools and approaches to understand past soundscapes. The process of creating a soundscape model is illustrated using an example from the late medieval soundscape of church bells in Polhograjsko hribovje, Slovenia. Thirdly, the article offers some technical and mathematical background to the model and presents the use of the software package which is freely available with the paper. The model presented is still in its infancy and much discussion and further development need to be undertaken. Its rationale and potential are addressed here.

  18. A Computer Model of Insect Traps in a Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manoukis, Nicholas C.; Hall, Brian; Geib, Scott M.

    2014-11-01

    Attractant-based trap networks are important elements of invasive insect detection, pest control, and basic research programs. We present a landscape-level, spatially explicit model of trap networks, focused on detection, that incorporates variable attractiveness of traps and a movement model for insect dispersion. We describe the model and validate its behavior using field trap data on networks targeting two species, Ceratitis capitata and Anoplophora glabripennis. Our model will assist efforts to optimize trap networks by 1) introducing an accessible and realistic mathematical characterization of the operation of a single trap that lends itself easily to parametrization via field experiments and 2) allowing direct quantification and comparison of sensitivity between trap networks. Results from the two case studies indicate that the relationship between number of traps and their spatial distribution and capture probability under the model is qualitatively dependent on the attractiveness of the traps, a result with important practical consequences.

  19. Hydrologic Response Unit Routing in SWAT to Simulate Effects of Vegetated Filter Strip for South-Korean Conditions Based on VFSMOD

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kyoung Jae Lim

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT model has been used worldwide for many hydrologic and Non-Point Source (NPS Pollution analyses on a watershed scale. However, it has many limitations in simulating the Vegetative Filter Strip (VFS because it considers only ‘filter strip width’ when the model estimates sediment trapping efficiency and does not consider the routing of sediment with overland flow which is expected to maximize the sediment trapping efficiency from upper agricultural subwatersheds to lower spatially-explicit filter strips. Therefore, the SWAT overland flow option between landuse-subwatersheds with sediment routing capability was enhanced by modifying the SWAT watershed configuration and SWAT engine based on the numerical model VFSMOD applied to South-Korean conditions. The enhanced SWAT can simulate the VFS sediment trapping efficiency for South-Korean conditions in a manner similar to the desktop VFSMOD-w system. Due to this enhancement, SWAT is applicable to simulate the effects of overland flow from upper subwatersheds to reflect increased runoff volume at the lower subwatershed, which occurs in the field if no diversion channel is installed. In this study, the enhanced SWAT model was applied to small watersheds located at Jaun-ri in South-Korea to simulate a diversion channel and spatially-explicit VFS. Sediment can be reduced by 31%, 65%, and 68%, with a diversion channel, the VFS, and the VFS with diversion channel, respectively. The enhanced SWAT should be used in estimating site-specific effects on sediment reduction with diversion channels and VFS, instead of the currently available SWAT, which does not simulate sediment routing in overland flow and does not consider other sensitive factors affecting sediment reduction with VFS.

  20. A network landscape model: stability analysis and numerical tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonacini, E.; Groppi, M.; Monaco, R.; Soares, A. J.; Soresina, C.

    2017-07-01

    A Network Landscape Model (NLM) for the evaluation of the ecological trend of an environmental system is here presented and investigated. The model consists in a network of dynamical systems, where each node represents a single Landscape Unit (LU), endowed by a system of ODEs for two variables relevant to the production of bio-energy and to the percentage of green areas, respectively. The main goal of the paper consists in testing the relevance of connectivity between the LUs. For this purpose we consider first the Single LU Model (SLM) and investigate its equilibria and their stability, in terms of two bifurcation parameters. Then the network dynamics is theoretically investigated by means of a bifurcation analysis of a proper simplified differential system, that allows to understand how the coupling between different LUs modifies the asymptotic scenarios for the single LU model. Numerical simulations of NLM are performed, with reference to an environmental system in Northern Italy, and results are discussed in connection with SLM.

  1. Stoichiometric distribution models: ecological stoichiometry at the landscape extent.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leroux, Shawn J; Wal, Eric Vander; Wiersma, Yolanda F; Charron, Louis; Ebel, Jonathan D; Ellis, Nichola M; Hart, Christopher; Kissler, Emilie; Saunders, Paul W; Moudrá, Lucie; Tanner, Amy L; Yalcin, Semra

    2017-12-01

    Human activities are altering the fundamental geography of biogeochemicals. Yet we lack an understanding of how the spatial patterns in organismal stoichiometry affect biogeochemical processes and the tools to predict the impacts of global changes on biogeochemical processes. In this contribution we develop stoichiometric distribution models (StDMs), which allow us to map spatial structure in resource elemental composition across a landscape and evaluate spatial responses of consumers. We parameterise StDMs for a consumer-resource (moose-white birch) system and demonstrate that we can develop predictive models of resource stoichiometry across a landscape and that such models could improve our predictions of consumer space use. With results from our study system application, we argue that explicit consideration of the spatial patterns in organismal elemental composition may uncover emergent individual, population, community and ecosystem properties that are not revealed at the local extents routinely used in ecological stoichiometry. We discuss perspectives for further developments and application of StDMs to advance three emerging frameworks for spatial ecosystem ecology in an era of global change; meta-ecosystem theory, macroecological stoichiometry and remotely sensed biogeochemistry. Progress on these emerging frameworks will allow for the integration of ecological stoichiometry and individual space use and fitness. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd/CNRS.

  2. Identifying the characteristic of SundaParahiyangan landscape for a model of sustainable agricultural landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahlan, M. Z.; Nurhayati, H. S. A.; Mugnisjah, W. Q.

    2017-10-01

    This study was an explorative study of the various forms of traditional ecological knowledge (TEK) of Sundanese people in the context of sustainable agriculture. The qualitative method was used to identify SundaParahiyangan landscape by using Rapid Participatory Rural Appraisal throughsemi-structured interviews, focus group discussions, and field survey. The Landscape Characteristic Assessment and Community Sustainability Assessment were used to analyze the characteristic of landscape to achieve the sustainable agricultural landscape criteria proposed by US Department of Agriculture. The results revealed that the SundaParahiyangan agricultural landscape has a unique characteristic as a result of the long-term adaptation of agricultural society to theirlandscape through a learning process for generations. In general, this character was reflected in the typical of Sundanese’s agroecosystems such as forest garden, mixed garden, paddy field, and home garden. In addition, concept of kabuyutan is one of the TEKs related to understanding and utilization of landscape has been adapted on revitalizing the role of landscape surrounding the agroecosystem as the buffer zone by calculating and designating protected areas. To support the sustainability of production area, integrated practices of agroforestry with low-external-input and sustainable agriculture (LEISA) system can be applied in utilizing and managing agricultural resources.

  3. Extension of landscape-based population viability models to ecoregional scales for conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. III Thompson; Joshua Millspaugh

    2011-01-01

    Landscape-based population models are potentially valuable tools in facilitating conservation planning and actions at large scales. However, such models have rarely been applied at ecoregional scales. We extended landscape-based population models to ecoregional scales for three species of concern in the Central Hardwoods Bird Conservation Region and compared model...

  4. Critical review of SWAT applications in the upper Nile basin countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. van Griensven

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is an integrated river basin model that is widely applied within the Nile basin. Up to date, more than 20 peer-reviewed papers describe the use of SWAT for a variety of problems in the upper Nile basin countries, such as erosion modelling, land use and climate change impact modelling and water resources management. The majority of the studies are focused on locations in the tropical highlands in Ethiopia and around Lake Victoria. The popularity of SWAT is attributed to the fact that the tool is freely available and that it is readily applicable through the development of geographic information system (GIS based interfaces and its easy linkage to sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty analysis tools. The online and free availability of basic GIS data that are required for SWAT made its applicability more straightforward even in data-scarce areas. However, the easy use of SWAT may not always lead to appropriate models which is also a consequence of the quality of the available free databases in these regions. In this paper, we aim at critically reviewing the use of SWAT in the context of the modelling purpose and problem descriptions in the tropical highlands of the Nile basin countries. To evaluate the models that are described in journal papers, a number of criteria are used to evaluate the model set-up, model performances, physical representation of the model parameters, and the correctness of the hydrological model balance. On the basis of performance indicators, the majority of the SWAT models were classified as giving satisfactory to very good results. Nevertheless, the hydrological mass balances as reported in several papers contained losses that might not be justified. Several papers also reported the use of unrealistic parameter values. More worrying is that many papers lack this information. For this reason, most of the reported SWAT models have to be evaluated critically. An important gap is

  5. Critical review of the application of SWAT in the upper Nile Basin countries

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Griensven, A.; Ndomba, P.; Yalew, S.; Kilonzo, F.

    2012-03-01

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a hydrological simulation tool that is widely applied within the Nile basin. Up to date, more than 20 peer reviewed papers describe the use of SWAT for a variety of problems in the upper Nile basin countries, such as erosion modeling, land use modeling, climate change impact modeling and water resources management. The majority of the studies are clustered in the tropical highlands in Ethiopia and around Lake Victoria. The popularity of SWAT is attributed to the fact that the tool is freely available and that it is readily applicable through the development of Geographic Information System (GIS) based interfaces and its easy linkage to sensitivity, calibration and uncertainty analysis tools. The online and free availability of basic GIS data that are required for SWAT made its applicability more straight forward even in data scarce areas. However, the easy use of SWAT may not always lead to knowledgeable models. In this paper, we aim at critically reviewing the use of SWAT in the context of the modeling purpose and problem descriptions in the tropical highlands of the Nile Basin countries. A number of criteria are used to evaluate the model set-up, model performances, physical representation of the model parameters, and the correctness of the hydrological model balance. On the basis of performance indicators, the majority of the SWAT models were classified as giving satisfactory to very good results. Nevertheless, the hydrological mass balances as reported in several papers contained losses that might not be justified. Several papers also reported unrealistic parameter values. More worrying is that many papers lack this information. For this reason, it is difficult to give an overall positive evaluation to most of the reported SWAT models. An important gap is the lack of attention that is given to the vegetation and crop processes. None of the papers reported any adaptation to the crop parameters, or any crop related

  6. An object-oriented forest landscape model and its representation of tree species

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; David J. Mladenoff; Joel Boeder

    1999-01-01

    LANDIS is a forest landscape model that simulates the interaction of large landscape processes and forest successional dynamics at tree species level. We discuss how object-oriented design (OOD) approaches such as modularity, abstraction and encapsulation are integrated into the design of LANDIS. We show that using OOD approaches, model decisions (olden as model...

  7. Everglades Landscape Model: Integrated Assessment of Hydrology, Biogeochemistry, and Biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fitz, H. C.; Wang, N.; Sklar, F. H.

    2002-05-01

    Water management infrastructure and operations have fragmented the greater Everglades into separate, impounded basins, altering flows and hydropatterns. A significant area of this managed system has experienced anthropogenic eutrophication. This combination of altered hydrology and water quality has interacted to degrade vegetative habitats and other ecological characteristics of the Everglades. One of the modeling tools to be used in developing restoration alternatives is the Everglades Landscape Model (ELM), a process-based, spatially explicit simulation of ecosystem dynamics across a heterogeneous, 10,000 km2 region. The model has been calibrated to capture hydrologic and surface water quality dynamics across most of the Everglades landscape over decadal time scales. We evaluated phosphorus loading throughout the Everglades system under two base scenarios. The 1995 base case assumed current management operations, with phosphorus inflow concentrations fixed at their long term, historical average. The 2050 base case assumed future modifications in water and nutrient management, with all managed inflows to the Everglades having reduced phosphorus concentrations. In an example indicator subregion that currently is highly eutrophic, the 31-yr simulations predicted that desirable periphyton and macrophyte communities were maintained under the 2050 base case, whereas in the 1995 base case, periphyton biomass and production decreased to negligible levels and macrophytes became extremely dense. The negative periphyton response in the 1995 base case was due to high phosphorus loads and rapid macrophyte growth that shaded this algal community. Along an existing 11 km eutrophication gradient, the model indicated that the 2050 base case had ecologically significant reductions in phosphorus accumulation compared to the 1995 base case. Indicator regions (in Everglades National Park) distant from phosphorus inflow points also exhibited reductions in phosphorus accumulation

  8. Soil erosion dynamics response to landscape pattern

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouyang, W.; Skidmore, A.K.; Hao, F.; Wang, T.

    2010-01-01

    Simulating soil erosion variation with a temporal land use database reveals long-term fluctuations in landscape patterns, as well as priority needs for soil erosion conservation. The application of a multi-year land use database in support of a Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) led to an accurate

  9. Landscapes of human evolution: models and methods of tectonic geomorphology and the reconstruction of hominin landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Geoffrey N; Reynolds, Sally C; King, Geoffrey C P

    2011-03-01

    This paper examines the relationship between complex and tectonically active landscapes and patterns of human evolution. We show how active tectonics can produce dynamic landscapes with geomorphological and topographic features that may be critical to long-term patterns of hominin land use, but which are not typically addressed in landscape reconstructions based on existing geological and paleoenvironmental principles. We describe methods of representing topography at a range of scales using measures of roughness based on digital elevation data, and combine the resulting maps with satellite imagery and ground observations to reconstruct features of the wider landscape as they existed at the time of hominin occupation and activity. We apply these methods to sites in South Africa, where relatively stable topography facilitates reconstruction. We demonstrate the presence of previously unrecognized tectonic effects and their implications for the interpretation of hominin habitats and land use. In parts of the East African Rift, reconstruction is more difficult because of dramatic changes since the time of hominin occupation, while fossils are often found in places where activity has now almost ceased. However, we show that original, dynamic landscape features can be assessed by analogy with parts of the Rift that are currently active and indicate how this approach can complement other sources of information to add new insights and pose new questions for future investigation of hominin land use and habitats. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. System dynamic modelling of industrial growth and landscape ecology in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jian; Kang, Jian; Shao, Long; Zhao, Tianyu

    2015-09-15

    With the rapid development of large industrial corridors in China, the landscape ecology of the country is currently being affected. Therefore, in this study, a system dynamic model with multi-dimensional nonlinear dynamic prediction function that considers industrial growth and landscape ecology is developed and verified to allow for more sustainable development. Firstly, relationships between industrial development and landscape ecology in China are examined, and five subsystems are then established: industry, population, urban economy, environment and landscape ecology. The main influencing factors are then examined for each subsystem to establish flow charts connecting those factors. Consequently, by connecting the subsystems, an overall industry growth and landscape ecology model is established. Using actual data and landscape index calculated based on GIS of the Ha-Da-Qi industrial corridor, a typical industrial corridor in China, over the period 2005-2009, the model is validated in terms of historical behaviour, logical structure and future prediction, where for 84.8% of the factors, the error rate of the model is less than 5%, the mean error rate of all factors is 2.96% and the error of the simulation test for the landscape ecology subsystem is less than 2%. Moreover, a model application has been made to consider the changes in landscape indices under four industrial development modes, and the optimal industrial growth plan has been examined for landscape ecological protection through the simulation prediction results over 2015-2020. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. Landscape Epidemiology Modeling Using an Agent-Based Model and a Geographic Information System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Niaz Arifin

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available A landscape epidemiology modeling framework is presented which integrates the simulation outputs from an established spatial agent-based model (ABM of malaria with a geographic information system (GIS. For a study area in Kenya, five landscape scenarios are constructed with varying coverage levels of two mosquito-control interventions. For each scenario, maps are presented to show the average distributions of three output indices obtained from the results of 750 simulation runs. Hot spot analysis is performed to detect statistically significant hot spots and cold spots. Additional spatial analysis is conducted using ordinary kriging with circular semivariograms for all scenarios. The integration of epidemiological simulation-based results with spatial analyses techniques within a single modeling framework can be a valuable tool for conducting a variety of disease control activities such as exploring new biological insights, monitoring epidemiological landscape changes, and guiding resource allocation for further investigation.

  12. Recent developments in computer modeling add ecological realism to landscape genetics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Background / Question / Methods A factor limiting the rate of progress in landscape genetics has been the shortage of spatial models capable of linking life history attributes such as dispersal behavior to complex dynamic landscape features. The recent development of new models...

  13. Comparing fire spread algorithms using equivalence testing and neutral landscape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian R. Miranda; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Eric J. Gustafson

    2009-01-01

    We demonstrate a method to evaluate the degree to which a meta-model approximates spatial disturbance processes represented by a more detailed model across a range of landscape conditions, using neutral landscapes and equivalence testing. We illustrate this approach by comparing burn patterns produced by a relatively simple fire spread algorithm with those generated by...

  14. Landscape-based population viability models demonstrate importance of strategic conservation planning for birds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas W. Bonnot; Frank R. Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; D. Todd. Jones-Farland

    2013-01-01

    Efforts to conserve regional biodiversity in the face of global climate change, habitat loss and fragmentation will depend on approaches that consider population processes at multiple scales. By combining habitat and demographic modeling, landscape-based population viability models effectively relate small-scale habitat and landscape patterns to regional population...

  15. Generation and Dissemination of a National Virtual 3D City and Landscape Model for the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Elberink, S.; Stoter, J.; Ledoux, H.; Commandeur, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the generation and dissemination of a national three-dimensional (3D) dataset representing the virtual and landscape model. The 3D model is produced automatically by fusing a two-dimensional (2D) national objectoriented database describing the physical landscape and the national

  16. Generation of a National Virtual 3D City and Landscape Model for the Netherlands

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oude Elberink, S.; Stoter, J.; Ledoux, H.; Commandeur, T.

    2013-01-01

    This paper describes the generation of a national three-dimensional (3D) dataset representing the virtual and landscape model. The 3D model is produced automatically by fusing a two-dimensional (2D) national object-oriented database describing the physical landscape and the national high-resolution

  17. Predictive Species and Habitat Modeling in Landscape Ecology: Concepts and Applications

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Drew, C. Ashton; Huettmann, Falk; Wiersma, Yolanda F

    2011-01-01

    ... is an excellent example of scholarship under the leadership of some outstanding young landscape ecologists. Focusing on species distribution and habitat modeling, it contributes to landscape ecology theories, methods, and applications in many ways. The book integrates fundamental ecological theories into the model development p...

  18. Repeated holdout Cross-Validation of Model to Estimate Risk of Lyme Disease by Landscape Attributes

    Science.gov (United States)

    We previously modeled Lyme disease (LD) risk at the landscape scale; here we evaluate the model's overall goodness-of-fit using holdout validation. Landscapes were characterized within road-bounded analysis units (AU). Observed LD cases (obsLD) were ascertained per AU. Data were ...

  19. Identification of landscape features influencing gene flow: How useful are habitat selection models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gretchen H. Roffler; Michael K. Schwartz; Kristine Pilgrim; Sandra L. Talbot; George K. Sage; Layne G. Adams; Gordon Luikart

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how dispersal patterns are influenced by landscape heterogeneity is critical for modeling species connectivity. Resource selection function (RSF) models are increasingly used in landscape genetics approaches. However, because the ecological factors that drive habitat selection may be different from those influencing dispersal and gene flow, it is...

  20. Exploring the role of fire, succession, climate, and weather on landscape dynamics using comparative modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Russell A. Parsons; Ian D. Davies; Karen J. King; Chao Li; Ross A. Bradstock; Malcolm Gill

    2013-01-01

    An assessment of the relative importance of vegetation change and disturbance as agents of landscape change under current and future climates would (1) provide insight into the controls of landscape dynamics, (2) help inform the design and development of coarse scale spatially explicit ecosystem models such as Dynamic Global Vegetation Models (DGVMs), and (3) guide...

  1. Soil Water and Temperature System (SWATS) Instrument Handbook

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, David R. [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States)

    2016-04-01

    The soil water and temperature system (SWATS) provides vertical profiles of soil temperature, soil-water potential, and soil moisture as a function of depth below the ground surface at hourly intervals. The temperature profiles are measured directly by in situ sensors at the Central Facility and many of the extended facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE)’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The soil-water potential and soil moisture profiles are derived from measurements of soil temperature rise in response to small inputs of heat. Atmospheric scientists use the data in climate models to determine boundary conditions and to estimate the surface energy flux. The data are also useful to hydrologists, soil scientists, and agricultural scientists for determining the state of the soil.

  2. Modelling the spatial distribution of linear landscape elements in Europe

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zanden, van der E.H.; Verburg, P.H.; Mücher, C.A.

    2013-01-01

    Linear landscape elements, such as ditches, hedgerows, lines of trees and field margins, provide important habitats and ecosystem services and function as ecological infrastructure for species within agricultural landscapes. Spatial maps of the distribution of these elements are needed to better

  3. Should the landscape or the modeler define hydrological model structure? (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiler, M.

    2009-12-01

    In most applications of hydrological models the same model structure is applied everywhere even though the model is unable to provide a faithful description of all occurring hydrological processes. Insights gained from experimental hydrology are rarely used directly to define the structure of hydrological models. Instead, more complex, distributed physically-based models use simple look-up tables to relate the parameters of each structural model element to soil and land-cover information without sufficiently evaluating these relationships. Still, the models are expected to generate the correct processes pattern within the landscape based on the fixed model structure with local parameterization. However, as for example the generation of surface runoff shows, the resulting pattern of the process is often incorrect because the model fails to predict the variable dynamics of soil saturation correctly. Another approach could be to have the landscape and climate define the model structure and hence directly guide selection and description of relevant hydrological processes. From our long experience in experimental hydrology we have collected a wealth of knowledge and data to predict, for example, if a specific hillslope that has developed over a known geologic formation within a specific climate generates surface or subsurface runoff during a storm. If we are able to predict the location of dominating hydrological processes based on landscape information, we could use this “map” of hydrological processes to define or adjust the model structure representing a specific process. This approach would be particularly powerful in ungauged basins. This contribution will compare the two approaches, introduce different methods how landscape can define model structure, and discuss strategies to identify regional differences in perceptual models and to determine the suitability of different model structures in different regions.

  4. Sensitivity of different satellites gridded data over Brahmaputra Basin byusing Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, S.; Pradhanang, S. M.; Islam, A. S.

    2016-12-01

    More than half a billion people of India, China, Nepal, Bangladesh and Bhutan are dependent on the water resources of the Brahmaputra river. With climatic and anthropogenic change of this basin region is becoming a cause of concern for future water management and sharing with transboundary riparian nations. To address such issues, robust watershed runoff modeling of the basin is essential. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) is a widely used semi-distributed watershed model that is capable of analyzing surface runoff, stream flow, water yield, sediment and nutrient transport in a large river basin such as Brahmaputra, but the performance of runoff the model depends on the accuracy of input precipitation datasets. But for a transboundary basin like Brahmaputra, precipitation gauge data from upstream areas is either not available or not accessible to the scientific communities. Satellite rainfall products are very effective where radar datasets are absent and conventional rain gauges are sparse. However, the sensitivity of the SWAT model to different satellite data products as well as hydrologic parameters for the Brahmaputra Basin are largely unknown. Thus in this study, a comparative analysis with different satellite data product has been made to assess the runoff using SWAT model. Here, datafrom three sources: TRMM, APHRDOTIE and GPCP were used as input precipitation satellite data set and ERA-Interim was used as input temperature dataset from 1998 to 2009. The main methods used in modeling the hydrologic processes in SWAT were curve number method for runoff estimating, Penman-Monteith method for PET and Muskingum method for channel routing. Our preliminary results have revealed thatthe TRMM data product is more accurate than APHRODITE and GPCP for runoff analysis. The coefficient of determination (R2) and Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies for both calibration and validation period from TRMM data are 0.83 and 0.72, respectively.

  5. Monitoring Landscape Changes in Japan Using Classification of Modis Data Combined with a Landscape Transformation Sere (LTS Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Harada Ippei

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Japan, with over 75% forest cover, is one of the most heavily forested countries in the world. Various types of climax forest are distributed according to latitude and altitude. At the same time, human intervention in Japan has historically been intensive, and many forest habitats show the influence of various levels of disturbance. Furthermore, Japanese landscapes are changing rapidly, and a system of efficient monitoring is needed. The aim of this research was to identify major historical trends in Japanese landscape change and to develop a system for identifying and monitoring patterns of landscape change at the national level. To provide a base for comparison, Warmth Index (WI climatic data was digitalized and utilized to map potential climax vegetation for all of Japan. Extant Land Use Information System (LUIS data were then modified and digitalized to generate national level Land Use/Land Cover (LU/LC distribution maps for 1900, 1950 and 1985. In addition, MODIS data for 2001 acquired by the Tokyo University of Information Sciences were utilized for remote LU/LC classification using an unsupervised method on multi-temporal composite data. Eight classification categories were established using the ISODATA (cluster analyses method; alpine plant communities, evergreen coniferous forest, evergreen broad-leaved forest, deciduous broad-leaved forest, mixed forest, arable land (irrigated rice paddy, non-irrigated, grassland, urban area, river and marsh. The results of the LUIS analyses and MODIS classifications were interpreted in terms of a Landscape Transformation Sere model assuming that under increasing levels of human disturbance the landscape will change through a series of stages. The results showed that overall forest cover in Japan has actually increased over the century covered by the data; from 72.1% in 1900 to 76.9% in 2001. Comparison of the actual vegetation and the potential vegetation as predicted by WI, however, indicated that in

  6. FEST-C 1.3 & 2.0 for CMAQ Bi-directional NH3, Crop Production, and SWAT Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Fertilizer Emission Scenario Tool for CMAQ (FEST-C) is developed in a Linux environment, a festc JAVA interface that integrates 14 tools and scenario management options facilitating land use/crop data processing for the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling system ...

  7. Forest processes from stands to landscapes: exploring model forecast uncertainties using cross-scale model comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael J. Papaik; Andrew Fall; Brian Sturtevant; Daniel Kneeshaw; Christian Messier; Marie-Josee Fortin; Neal. Simon

    2010-01-01

    Forest management practices conducted primarily at the stand scale result in simplified forests with regeneration problems and low structural and biological diversity. Landscape models have been used to help design management strategies to address these problems. However, there remains a great deal of uncertainty that the actual management practices result in the...

  8. The Integrated Landscape Modeling partnership - Current status and future directions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mushet, David M.; Scherff, Eric J.

    2016-01-28

    The Integrated Landscape Modeling (ILM) partnership is an effort by the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) and U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) to identify, evaluate, and develop models to quantify services derived from ecosystems, with a focus on wetland ecosystems and conservation effects. The ILM partnership uses the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) modeling platform to facilitate regional quantifications of ecosystem services under various scenarios of land-cover change that are representative of differing conservation program and practice implementation scenarios. To date, the ILM InVEST partnership has resulted in capabilities to quantify carbon stores, amphibian habitat, plant-community diversity, and pollination services. Work to include waterfowl and grassland bird habitat quality is in progress. Initial InVEST modeling has been focused on the Prairie Pothole Region (PPR) of the United States; future efforts might encompass other regions as data availability and knowledge increase as to how functions affecting ecosystem services differ among regions.The ILM partnership is also developing the capability for field-scale process-based modeling of depressional wetland ecosystems using the Agricultural Policy/Environmental Extender (APEX) model. Progress was made towards the development of techniques to use the APEX model for closed-basin depressional wetlands of the PPR, in addition to the open systems that the model was originally designed to simulate. The ILM partnership has matured to the stage where effects of conservation programs and practices on multiple ecosystem services can now be simulated in selected areas. Future work might include the continued development of modeling capabilities, as well as development and evaluation of differing conservation program and practice scenarios of interest to partner agencies including the USDA’s Farm Service Agency (FSA) and Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS). When

  9. Spatial modelling and monitoring of natural landscapes with cases in the Amsterdam Waterworks Dunes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Droesen, W.

    1999-01-01

    The utilisation of geographic information systems and digital image processing techniques for the construction of digital landscape models necessitate for a reconsideration of the classical concepts for landscape ecological mapping. In this thesis, some methods are presented for the spatial

  10. Modelling metabolic evolution on phenotypic fitness landscapes: a case study on C4 photosynthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heckmann, David

    2015-12-01

    How did the complex metabolic systems we observe today evolve through adaptive evolution? The fitness landscape is the theoretical framework to answer this question. Since experimental data on natural fitness landscapes is scarce, computational models are a valuable tool to predict landscape topologies and evolutionary trajectories. Careful assumptions about the genetic and phenotypic features of the system under study can simplify the design of such models significantly. The analysis of C4 photosynthesis evolution provides an example for accurate predictions based on the phenotypic fitness landscape of a complex metabolic trait. The C4 pathway evolved multiple times from the ancestral C3 pathway and models predict a smooth 'Mount Fuji' landscape accordingly. The modelled phenotypic landscape implies evolutionary trajectories that agree with data on modern intermediate species, indicating that evolution can be predicted based on the phenotypic fitness landscape. Future directions will have to include structural changes of metabolic fitness landscape structure with changing environments. This will not only answer important evolutionary questions about reversibility of metabolic traits, but also suggest strategies to increase crop yields by engineering the C4 pathway into C3 plants. © 2015 Authors; published by Portland Press Limited.

  11. Spatially explicit modeling of mixed-severity fire regimes and landscape dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael C. Wimberly; Rebecca S.H. Kennedy

    2008-01-01

    Simulation models of disturbance and succession are being increasingly applied to characterize landscape composition and dynamics under natural fire regimes, and to evaluate alternative management strategies for ecological restoration and fire hazard reduction. However, we have a limited understanding of how landscapes respond to changes in fire frequency, and about...

  12. Habitat suitability models for cavity-nesting birds in a postfire landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robin E. Russell; Victoria A. Saab; Jonathan G. Dudley

    2007-01-01

    Models of habitat suitability in postfire landscapes are needed by land managers to make timely decisions regarding postfire timber harvest and other management activities. Many species of cavity-nesting birds are dependent on postfire landscapes for breeding and other aspects of their life history and are responsive to postfire management activities (e.g., timber...

  13. Model forest landscape change in the Missouri Ozarks under alternative management practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; David R. Larsen; William D. Dijak

    2000-01-01

    We used a spatially explicit landscape model, LANDIS, to simulate the effects of five management alternatives on a 3216 ha forest landscape in southeast Missouri, USA. We compared management alternatives among two intensities of even-aged management with clearcutting, uneven-aged management with group selection harvest, a mixture of even- and uneven-aged management,...

  14. A computerized model for integrating the physical environmental factors into metropolitan landscape planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Julius Gy Fabos; Kimball H. Ferris

    1977-01-01

    This paper justifies and illustrates (in simplified form) a landscape planning approach to the environmental management of the metropolitan landscape. The model utilizes a computerized assessment and mapping system, which exhibits a recent advancement in computer technology that allows for greater accuracy and the weighting of different values when mapping at the...

  15. MODELING SCALE-DEPENDENT LANDSCAPE PATTERN, DISPERSAL, AND CONNECTIVITY FROM THE PERSPECTIVE OF THE ORGANISM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Effects of fine- to broad-scale patterns of landscape heterogeneity on dispersal success were examined for organisms varying in life history traits. To systematically control spatial pattern, a landscape model was created by merging physiographically-based maps of simulated land...

  16. The Application of Geobiocoenological Landscape Typology in The Modelling of Climate Change Implications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vlčková Veronika

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Geobiocoenological landscape typology, which is used in landscape planning in the Czech Republic, includes vegetation zonation of the landscape. Vegetation zones are determined by climatic conditions. Changes in climatic conditions will probably be manifested in the shift of vegetation zones in the landscape. Mathematical geobiocoenological model of vegetation zonation of the landscape is based on the general ecological relationship between the current vegetation zonation and present climatic conditions and the assumption that this general relationship will be maintained in the future. The paper presents the application of the model using the example of the prediction of changes in climatic conditions for the Norway spruce (the first-generation of the model and grapevine (the second-generation of the model in the Czech Republic. In the case of the Norway spruce example, the model shows that the predicted changes in climatic conditions will prevent the cultivation of the spruce in the Czech Republic outside its natural range in mountainous areas. The results of the presented model for grapevine show significant enlargement of areas climatically suitable for growing grapes within the studied area.These examples demonstrate the potential for the application of geobiocoenological landscape typology in the modeling of the effects of climate change in the landscape.

  17. Modeling bark beetles and fuels on landscapes: A demonstration of ArcFuels and a discussion of possible model enhancements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. McMahan; Alan A. Ager; Helen Maffei; Jane L. Hayes; Eric L. Smith

    2008-01-01

    The Westwide Pine Beetle Model and the Fire and Fuels Extension were used to simulate a mountain pine beetle outbreak under different fuel treatment scenarios on a 173,000 acre landscape on the Deschutes National Forest. The goal was to use these models within ArcFuels to analyze the interacting impacts of bark beetles and management activities on landscape fuel...

  18. Discrete kinetic models from funneled energy landscape simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schafer, Nicholas P; Hoffman, Ryan M B; Burger, Anat; Craig, Patricio O; Komives, Elizabeth A; Wolynes, Peter G

    2012-01-01

    A general method for facilitating the interpretation of computer simulations of protein folding with minimally frustrated energy landscapes is detailed and applied to a designed ankyrin repeat protein (4ANK). In the method, groups of residues are assigned to foldons and these foldons are used to map the conformational space of the protein onto a set of discrete macrobasins. The free energies of the individual macrobasins are then calculated, informing practical kinetic analysis. Two simple assumptions about the universality of the rate for downhill transitions between macrobasins and the natural local connectivity between macrobasins lead to a scheme for predicting overall folding and unfolding rates, generating chevron plots under varying thermodynamic conditions, and inferring dominant kinetic folding pathways. To illustrate the approach, free energies of macrobasins were calculated from biased simulations of a non-additive structure-based model using two structurally motivated foldon definitions at the full and half ankyrin repeat resolutions. The calculated chevrons have features consistent with those measured in stopped flow chemical denaturation experiments. The dominant inferred folding pathway has an "inside-out", nucleation-propagation like character.

  19. Discrete kinetic models from funneled energy landscape simulations.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicholas P Schafer

    Full Text Available A general method for facilitating the interpretation of computer simulations of protein folding with minimally frustrated energy landscapes is detailed and applied to a designed ankyrin repeat protein (4ANK. In the method, groups of residues are assigned to foldons and these foldons are used to map the conformational space of the protein onto a set of discrete macrobasins. The free energies of the individual macrobasins are then calculated, informing practical kinetic analysis. Two simple assumptions about the universality of the rate for downhill transitions between macrobasins and the natural local connectivity between macrobasins lead to a scheme for predicting overall folding and unfolding rates, generating chevron plots under varying thermodynamic conditions, and inferring dominant kinetic folding pathways. To illustrate the approach, free energies of macrobasins were calculated from biased simulations of a non-additive structure-based model using two structurally motivated foldon definitions at the full and half ankyrin repeat resolutions. The calculated chevrons have features consistent with those measured in stopped flow chemical denaturation experiments. The dominant inferred folding pathway has an "inside-out", nucleation-propagation like character.

  20. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : installation manual.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  1. Developing strategies to initialize landscape-scale vegetation maps from FIA data to enhance resolution of individual species-size cohort representation in the landscape disturbance model SIMPPLLE

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacob John Muller

    2014-01-01

    The ability of forest resource managers to understand and anticipate landscape-scale change in composition and structure relies upon an adequate characterization of the current forest composition and structure of various patches (or stands), along with the capacity of forest landscape models (FLMs) to predict patterns of growth, succession, and disturbance at multiple...

  2. An innovative computer design for modeling forest landscape change in very large spatial extents with fine resolutions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jian Yang; Hong S. He; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson; Yangjian. Zhang

    2011-01-01

    Although forest landscape models (FLMs) have benefited greatly from ongoing advances of computer technology and software engineering, computing capacity remains a bottleneck in the design and development of FLMs. Computer memory overhead and run time efficiency are primary limiting factors when applying forest landscape models to simulate large landscapes with fine...

  3. Localization landscape theory of disorder in semiconductors I: Theory and modeling

    OpenAIRE

    Filoche, Marcel; Piccardo, Marco; Wu, Yuh-Renn; Li, Chi-Kang; Weisbuch, Claude; Mayboroda, Svitlana

    2017-01-01

    We present here a model of carrier distribution and transport in semiconductor alloys accounting for quantum localization effects in disordered materials. This model is based on the recent development of a mathematical theory of quantum localization which introduces for each type of carrier a spatial function called \\emph{localization landscape}. These landscapes allow us to predict the localization regions of electron and hole quantum states, their corresponding energies, and the local densi...

  4. Modeling wildfire regimes in forest landscapes: abstracting a complex reality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald McKenzie; Ajith H. Perera

    2015-01-01

    Fire is a natural disturbance that is nearly ubiquitous in terrestrial ecosystems. The capacity to burn exists virtually wherever vegetation grows. In some forested landscapes, fi re is a principal driver of rapid ecosystem change, resetting succession ( McKenzie et al. 1996a ) and changing wildlife habitat (Cushman et al. 2011 ), hydrology ( Feikema et al. 2013 ),...

  5. Modelling the negative effects of landscape fragmentation on habitat selection

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Langevelde, van F.

    2015-01-01

    Landscape fragmentation constrains movement of animals between habitat patches. Fragmentation may, therefore, limit the possibilities to explore and select the best habitat patches, and some animals may have to cope with low-quality patches due to these movement constraints. If so, these individuals

  6. A comparison of regression methods for model selection in individual-based landscape genetic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirk, Andrew J; Landguth, Erin L; Cushman, Samuel A

    2018-01-01

    Anthropogenic migration barriers fragment many populations and limit the ability of species to respond to climate-induced biome shifts. Conservation actions designed to conserve habitat connectivity and mitigate barriers are needed to unite fragmented populations into larger, more viable metapopulations, and to allow species to track their climate envelope over time. Landscape genetic analysis provides an empirical means to infer landscape factors influencing gene flow and thereby inform such conservation actions. However, there are currently many methods available for model selection in landscape genetics, and considerable uncertainty as to which provide the greatest accuracy in identifying the true landscape model influencing gene flow among competing alternative hypotheses. In this study, we used population genetic simulations to evaluate the performance of seven regression-based model selection methods on a broad array of landscapes that varied by the number and type of variables contributing to resistance, the magnitude and cohesion of resistance, as well as the functional relationship between variables and resistance. We also assessed the effect of transformations designed to linearize the relationship between genetic and landscape distances. We found that linear mixed effects models had the highest accuracy in every way we evaluated model performance; however, other methods also performed well in many circumstances, particularly when landscape resistance was high and the correlation among competing hypotheses was limited. Our results provide guidance for which regression-based model selection methods provide the most accurate inferences in landscape genetic analysis and thereby best inform connectivity conservation actions. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  7. Modeling the effects of forest harvesting on landscape structure and the spatial distribution of cowbird brood parasitism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Thomas R. Crow

    1994-01-01

    Timber harvesting affects both composition and structure of the landscape and has important consequences for organisms using forest habitats. A timber harvest allocation model was constructed that allows the input of specific rules to allocate forest stands for clearcutting to generate landscape patterns reflecting the "look and feel" of managed landscapes....

  8. Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thomas A. Spies; Eric White; Alan Ager; Jeffrey D. Kline; John P. Bolte; Emily K. Platt; Keith A. Olsen; Robert J. Pabst; Ana M. G. Barros; John D. Bailey; Susan Charnley; Anita T. Morzillo; Jennifer Koch; Michelle M. Steen-Adams; Peter H. Singleton; James Sulzman; Cynthia Schwartz; Blair Csuti

    2017-01-01

    Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern...

  9. A method to efficiently apply a biogeochemical model to a landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Kennedy; David P. Turner; Warren B. Cohen; Michael. Guzy

    2006-01-01

    Biogeochemical models offer an important means of understanding carbon dynamics, but the computational complexity of many models means that modeling all grid cells on a large landscape is computationally burdensome. Because most biogeochemical models ignore adjacency effects between cells, however, a more efficient approach is possible. Recognizing that spatial...

  10. Integrating the landscape epidemiology and genetics of RNA viruses: rabies in domestic dogs as a model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brunker, K; Hampson, K; Horton, D L; Biek, R

    2012-12-01

    Landscape epidemiology and landscape genetics combine advances in molecular techniques, spatial analyses and epidemiological models to generate a more real-world understanding of infectious disease dynamics and provide powerful new tools for the study of RNA viruses. Using dog rabies as a model we have identified how key questions regarding viral spread and persistence can be addressed using a combination of these techniques. In contrast to wildlife rabies, investigations into the landscape epidemiology of domestic dog rabies requires more detailed assessment of the role of humans in disease spread, including the incorporation of anthropogenic landscape features, human movements and socio-cultural factors into spatial models. In particular, identifying and quantifying the influence of anthropogenic features on pathogen spread and measuring the permeability of dispersal barriers are important considerations for planning control strategies, and may differ according to cultural, social and geographical variation across countries or continents. Challenges for dog rabies research include the development of metapopulation models and transmission networks using genetic information to uncover potential source/sink dynamics and identify the main routes of viral dissemination. Information generated from a landscape genetics approach will facilitate spatially strategic control programmes that accommodate for heterogeneities in the landscape and therefore utilise resources in the most cost-effective way. This can include the efficient placement of vaccine barriers, surveillance points and adaptive management for large-scale control programmes.

  11. Landscape Development During a Glacial Cycle: Modeling Ecosystems from the Past into the Future

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lindborg, Tobias; Andersson, Eva [Swedish Nuclear Fuel and Waste Management Co, Stockholm (Sweden)], E-mail: tobias.lindborg@skb.se; Brydsten, Lars [Umeaa Marine Sciences Centre, Umeaa (Sweden); Stroemgren, Maarten [Dept. of Ecology and Environmental Science, Umeaa Univ., Umeaa (Sweden); Sohlenius, Gustav [Geological Survey of Sweden, Uppsala (Sweden)] Loefgren, Anders [EcoAnalytica, Haegersten (Sweden)

    2013-05-15

    Understanding how long-term abiotic and biotic processes are linked at a landscape level is of major interest for analyzing future impact on humans and the environment from present-day societal planning. This article uses results derived from multidisciplinary work at a coastal site in Sweden, with the aim of describing future landscape development. First, based on current and historical data, we identified climate change, shoreline displacement, and accumulation/erosion processes as the main drivers of landscape development. Second, site-specific information was combined with data from the Scandinavian region to build models that describe how the identified processes may affect the site development through time. Finally, the process models were combined to describe a whole interglacial period. With this article, we show how the landscape and ecosystem boundaries are affected by changing permafrost conditions, peat formation, sedimentation, human land use, and shoreline displacement.

  12. Spatial capture-recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J. Andrew; Chandler, Richard B.; Gazenski, Kimberly D.; Graves, Tabitha A.

    2013-01-01

    Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture–recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on “ecological distance,” i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture–recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture–recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

  13. Spatial capture--recapture models for jointly estimating population density and landscape connectivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Royle, J Andrew; Chandler, Richard B; Gazenski, Kimberly D; Graves, Tabitha A

    2013-02-01

    Population size and landscape connectivity are key determinants of population viability, yet no methods exist for simultaneously estimating density and connectivity parameters. Recently developed spatial capture--recapture (SCR) models provide a framework for estimating density of animal populations but thus far have not been used to study connectivity. Rather, all applications of SCR models have used encounter probability models based on the Euclidean distance between traps and animal activity centers, which implies that home ranges are stationary, symmetric, and unaffected by landscape structure. In this paper we devise encounter probability models based on "ecological distance," i.e., the least-cost path between traps and activity centers, which is a function of both Euclidean distance and animal movement behavior in resistant landscapes. We integrate least-cost path models into a likelihood-based estimation scheme for spatial capture-recapture models in order to estimate population density and parameters of the least-cost encounter probability model. Therefore, it is possible to make explicit inferences about animal density, distribution, and landscape connectivity as it relates to animal movement from standard capture-recapture data. Furthermore, a simulation study demonstrated that ignoring landscape connectivity can result in negatively biased density estimators under the naive SCR model.

  14. Digging in the past : New conceptual models in landscape history and their relevance in peri-urban landscapes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Palang, Hannes; Spek, Theo; Stenseke, Marie

    2011-01-01

    Although the importance of knowledge about past landscapes has already been stressed in Landscape and Urban Planning, there are still gaps in how this knowledge can be identified and best put to use in landscape planning and management. Two major gaps cited by many researchers are those between

  15. GIS, remote sensing and spatial modeling for conservation of stone forest landscape in Lunan, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Chuanrong

    The Lunan Stone Forest is the World's premier pinnacle karst landscape, with considerable scientific and cultural importance. Because of its inherent ecological fragility and ongoing human disruption, especially recently burgeoning tourism development, the landscape is stressed and is in danger of being destroyed. Conservation policies have been implemented by the local and national governments, but many problems remain in the national park. For example, there is no accurate detailed map and no computer system to help authorities manage the natural resources. By integrating GIS, remote sensing and spatial modeling this dissertation investigates the issue of landscape conservation and develops some methodologies to assist in management of the natural resources in the national park. Four elements are involved: (1) To help decision-makers and residents understand the scope of resource exploitation and develop appropriate protective strategies, the dissertation documents how the landscape has been changed by human activities over the past 3 decades; (2) To help authorities scientifically designate different levels of protection in the park and to let the public actively participate in conservation decision making, a web-based Spatial Decision Support System for the conservation of the landscape was developed; (3) To make data sharing and integration easy in the future, a GML-based interoperable database for the park was implemented; and (4) To acquire more information and provide the uncertainty information to landscape conservation decision-makers, spatial land use patterns were modeled and the distributional uncertainty of land cover categories was assessed using a triplex Markov chain (TMC) model approach.

  16. [Review on landscape heterogeneity].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yutao; Yu, Xinxiao; Guang, Wenbin

    2002-04-01

    On the base of precedent studies, the occurring mechanism, classification, measurement methods, and the important role of landscape heterogeneity in landscape ecology were reviewed. The inner and outer uncertain factors result in landscape heterogeneity. Landscape heterogeneity has close relations with landscape stability, landscape design, architecture, management and disturbance, scale and ecological diversity in ecology. Complexity of landscape heterogeneity research, non-system of measurement indices and methods, difficulties and limitations of landscape heterogeneity modelling were all discussed respectively. In addition, it is suggested that the theory and methods of ecological complexity should be used to improve landscape heterogeneity research.

  17. Remote sensing inputs to landscape models which predict future spatial land use patterns for hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, L. D.; Tom, C.; Nualchawee, K.

    1977-01-01

    A tropical forest area of Northern Thailand provided a test case of the application of the approach in more natural surroundings. Remote sensing imagery subjected to proper computer analysis has been shown to be a very useful means of collecting spatial data for the science of hydrology. Remote sensing products provide direct input to hydrologic models and practical data bases for planning large and small-scale hydrologic developments. Combining the available remote sensing imagery together with available map information in the landscape model provides a basis for substantial improvements in these applications.

  18. Linking population viability, habitat suitability, and landscape simulation models for conservation planning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael A. Larson; Frank R., III Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh; William D. Dijak; Stephen R. Shifley

    2004-01-01

    Methods for habitat modeling based on landscape simulations and population viability modeling based on habitat quality are well developed, but no published study of which we are aware has effectively joined them in a single, comprehensive analysis. We demonstrate the application of a population viability model for ovenbirds (Seiurus aurocapillus)...

  19. Empirical validation of landscape resistance models: insights from the Greater Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrew J. Shirk; Michael A. Schroeder; Leslie A. Robb; Samuel A. Cushman

    2015-01-01

    The ability of landscapes to impede species’ movement or gene flow may be quantified by resistance models. Few studies have assessed the performance of resistance models parameterized by expert opinion. In addition, resistance models differ in terms of spatial and thematic resolution as well as their focus on the ecology of a particular species or more generally on the...

  20. Modelling non-Euclidean movement and landscape connectivity in highly structured ecological networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sutherland, Christopher; Fuller, Angela K.; Royle, J. Andrew

    2015-01-01

    Movement is influenced by landscape structure, configuration and geometry, but measuring distance as perceived by animals poses technical and logistical challenges. Instead, movement is typically measured using Euclidean distance, irrespective of location or landscape structure, or is based on arbitrary cost surfaces. A recently proposed extension of spatial capture-recapture (SCR) models resolves this issue using spatial encounter histories of individuals to calculate least-cost paths (ecological distance: Ecology, 94, 2013, 287) thereby relaxing the Euclidean assumption. We evaluate the consequences of not accounting for movement heterogeneity when estimating abundance in highly structured landscapes, and demonstrate the value of this approach for estimating biologically realistic space-use patterns and landscape connectivity.

  1. State of the Art of the Landscape Architecture Spatial Data Model from a Geospatial Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kastuari, A.; Suwardhi, D.; Hanan, H.; Wikantika, K.

    2016-10-01

    Spatial data and information had been used for some time in planning or landscape design. For a long time, architects were using spatial data in the form of topographic map for their designs. This method is not efficient, and it is also not more accurate than using spatial analysis by utilizing GIS. Architects are sometimes also only accentuating the aesthetical aspect for their design, but not taking landscape process into account which could cause the design could be not suitable for its use and its purpose. Nowadays, GIS role in landscape architecture has been formalized by the emergence of Geodesign terminology that starts in Representation Model and ends in Decision Model. The development of GIS could be seen in several fields of science that now have the urgency to use 3 dimensional GIS, such as in: 3D urban planning, flood modeling, or landscape planning. In this fields, 3 dimensional GIS is able to support the steps in modeling, analysis, management, and integration from related data, that describe the human activities and geophysics phenomena in more realistic way. Also, by applying 3D GIS and geodesign in landscape design, geomorphology information can be better presented and assessed. In some research, it is mentioned that the development of 3D GIS is not established yet, either in its 3D data structure, or in its spatial analysis function. This study literature will able to accommodate those problems by providing information on existing development of 3D GIS for landscape architecture, data modeling, the data accuracy, representation of data that is needed by landscape architecture purpose, specifically in the river area.

  2. STATE OF THE ART OF THE LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE SPATIAL DATA MODEL FROM A GEOSPATIAL PERSPECTIVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Kastuari

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available Spatial data and information had been used for some time in planning or landscape design. For a long time, architects were using spatial data in the form of topographic map for their designs. This method is not efficient, and it is also not more accurate than using spatial analysis by utilizing GIS. Architects are sometimes also only accentuating the aesthetical aspect for their design, but not taking landscape process into account which could cause the design could be not suitable for its use and its purpose. Nowadays, GIS role in landscape architecture has been formalized by the emergence of Geodesign terminology that starts in Representation Model and ends in Decision Model. The development of GIS could be seen in several fields of science that now have the urgency to use 3 dimensional GIS, such as in: 3D urban planning, flood modeling, or landscape planning. In this fields, 3 dimensional GIS is able to support the steps in modeling, analysis, management, and integration from related data, that describe the human activities and geophysics phenomena in more realistic way. Also, by applying 3D GIS and geodesign in landscape design, geomorphology information can be better presented and assessed. In some research, it is mentioned that the development of 3D GIS is not established yet, either in its 3D data structure, or in its spatial analysis function. This study literature will able to accommodate those problems by providing information on existing development of 3D GIS for landscape architecture, data modeling, the data accuracy, representation of data that is needed by landscape architecture purpose, specifically in the river area.

  3. Development of stream-subsurface flow module in sub-daily simulation of Escherichia coli using SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Minjeong; Boithias, Laurie; Cho, Kyung Hwa; Silvera, Norbert; Thammahacksa, Chanthamousone; Latsachack, Keooudone; Rochelle-Newall, Emma; Sengtaheuanghoung, Oloth; Pierret, Alain; Pachepsky, Yakov A.; Ribolzi, Olivier

    2017-04-01

    Water contaminated with pathogenic bacteria poses a large threat to public health, especially in the rural areas in the tropics where sanitation and drinking water facilities are often lacking. Several studies have used the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to predict the export of in-stream bacteria at a watershed-scale. However, SWAT is limited to in-stream processes, such as die-off, resuspension and, deposition; and it is usually implemented on a daily time step using the SCS Curve Number method, making it difficult to explore the dynamic fate and transport of bacteria during short but intense events such as flash floods in tropical humid montane headwaters. To address these issues, this study implemented SWAT on an hourly time step using the Green-Ampt infiltration method, and tested the effects of subsurface flow (LATQ+GWQ in SWAT) on bacterial dynamics. We applied the modified SWAT model to the 60-ha Houay Pano catchment in Northern Laos, using sub-daily rainfall and discharge measurements, electric conductivity-derived fractions of overland and subsurface flows, suspended sediments concentrations, and the number of fecal indicator organism Escherichia coli monitored at the catchment outlet from 2011 to 2013. We also took into account land use change by delineating the watershed with the 3-year composite land use map. The results show that low subsurface flow of less than 1 mm recovered the underestimation of E. coli numbers during the dry season, while high subsurface flow caused an overestimation during the wet season. We also found that it is more reasonable to apply the stream-subsurface flow interaction to simulate low in-stream bacteria counts. Using fecal bacteria to identify and understand the possible interactions between overland and subsurface flows may well also provide some insight into the fate of other bacteria, such as those involved in biogeochemical fluxes both in-stream and in the adjacent soils and hyporheic zones.

  4. Adaptation in tunably rugged fitness landscapes: the rough Mount Fuji model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neidhart, Johannes; Szendro, Ivan G; Krug, Joachim

    2014-10-01

    Much of the current theory of adaptation is based on Gillespie's mutational landscape model (MLM), which assumes that the fitness values of genotypes linked by single mutational steps are independent random variables. On the other hand, a growing body of empirical evidence shows that real fitness landscapes, while possessing a considerable amount of ruggedness, are smoother than predicted by the MLM. In the present article we propose and analyze a simple fitness landscape model with tunable ruggedness based on the rough Mount Fuji (RMF) model originally introduced by Aita et al. in the context of protein evolution. We provide a comprehensive collection of results pertaining to the topographical structure of RMF landscapes, including explicit formulas for the expected number of local fitness maxima, the location of the global peak, and the fitness correlation function. The statistics of single and multiple adaptive steps on the RMF landscape are explored mainly through simulations, and the results are compared to the known behavior in the MLM model. Finally, we show that the RMF model can explain the large number of second-step mutations observed on a highly fit first-step background in a recent evolution experiment with a microvirid bacteriophage. Copyright © 2014 by the Genetics Society of America.

  5. Proceedings of the First Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference, June 14–16, 2011, Portland, Oregon

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becky K. Kerns; Ayn J. Shlisky; Colin J. Daniel

    2012-01-01

    The first ever Landscape State-and-Transition Simulation Modeling Conference was held from June 14–16, 2011, in Portland Oregon. The conference brought together over 70 users of state-and-transition simulation modeling tools—the Vegetation Dynamics Development Tool (VDDT), the Tool for Exploratory Landscape Analysis (TELSA) and the Path Landscape Model. The goal of the...

  6. Modeling urban landscape: New paradigms and challenges in territorial representation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sheyla Aguilar de Santana

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper aims to give a brief background on the production of urban space considering the social functions of the city, the needs of contemporary urban reforms and the need for tools that assist in decision making. This state of the art about the production space justifies the current studies on the development of geoprocessing tools, techniques and methodologies that attempt the needs of creating interpretive portraits of urban landscapes to facilitate dialogue between urban technical, administrators and community. In this sense, it is presented how GIS has been working within the context of urban planning and appointed the new challenges and paradigms of territorial representation.

  7. Mapping, monitoring, and modeling Western Gateway Community landscape dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hester, David J.

    2013-01-01

    Federal public lands in the western United States are becoming increasingly surrounded by Gateway Communities. These communities are undergoing landscape change due to population growth, economic growth, and the resulting land-use development. Socioeconomic, demographic, and land-use changes in Gateway Communities are often perceived as threats to Federal land resources, natural amenities, cultural resources, and recreational opportunities. However, land-surface disturbances on Federal public lands, such as conventional and alternative energy development (which impact surrounding Gateway Communities), are also environmental and societal issues that Federal land and adjacent regional community planners need to consider in their long-range land-use planning.

  8. Ecohydro-geomorphic implications of orographic precipitation on landform evolution using a landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetemen, O.; Saco, P. M.

    2016-12-01

    Orography induced precipitation and its implications on vegetation dynamics and landscape morphology have long been documented in the literature. However a numerical framework that integrates a range of ecohydrologic and geomorphic processes to explore the coupled ecohydro-geomorphic landscape response of catchments where pronounced orographic precipitation prevails has been missing. In this study, our aim is to realistically represent orographic-precipitation-driven ecohydrologic dynamics in a landscape evolution model (LEM). The model is used to investigate how ecohydro-geomorphic differences caused by differential precipitation patterns on the leeward and windward sides of low-relief landscapes lead to differences in the organization of modelled topography, soil moisture and plant biomass. We use the CHILD LEM equipped with a vegetation dynamics component that explicitly tracks above- and below-ground biomass, and a precipitation forcing component that simulates rainfall as a function of elevation and orientation. The preliminary results of the model show how the competition between an increased shear stress through runoff production and an enhanced resistance force due to denser canopy cover shape the landscape. Moreover, orographic precipitation leads to not only the migration of the divide between leeward and windward slopes but also a change in the concavity of streams. These results clearly demonstrate the strong coupling between landform evolution and climate processes.

  9. Identification of landscape features influencing gene flow: How useful are habitat selection models?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roffler, Gretchen H.; Schwartz, Michael K.; Pilgrim, Kristy L.; Talbot, Sandra; Sage, Kevin; Adams, Layne G.; Luikart, Gordon

    2016-01-01

    Understanding how dispersal patterns are influenced by landscape heterogeneity is critical for modeling species connectivity. Resource selection function (RSF) models are increasingly used in landscape genetics approaches. However, because the ecological factors that drive habitat selection may be different from those influencing dispersal and gene flow, it is important to consider explicit assumptions and spatial scales of measurement. We calculated pairwise genetic distance among 301 Dall's sheep (Ovis dalli dalli) in southcentral Alaska using an intensive noninvasive sampling effort and 15 microsatellite loci. We used multiple regression of distance matrices to assess the correlation of pairwise genetic distance and landscape resistance derived from an RSF, and combinations of landscape features hypothesized to influence dispersal. Dall's sheep gene flow was positively correlated with steep slopes, moderate peak normalized difference vegetation indices (NDVI), and open land cover. Whereas RSF covariates were significant in predicting genetic distance, the RSF model itself was not significantly correlated with Dall's sheep gene flow, suggesting that certain habitat features important during summer (rugged terrain, mid-range elevation) were not influential to effective dispersal. This work underscores that consideration of both habitat selection and landscape genetics models may be useful in developing management strategies to both meet the immediate survival of a species and allow for long-term genetic connectivity.

  10. Predicting landscape vegetation dynamics using state-and-transition simulation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colin J. Daniel; Leonardo. Frid

    2012-01-01

    This paper outlines how state-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) can be used to project changes in vegetation over time across a landscape. STSMs are stochastic, empirical simulation models that use an adapted Markov chain approach to predict how vegetation will transition between states over time, typically in response to interactions between succession,...

  11. Challenges and needs in fire management: A landscape simulation modeling perspective [chapter 4

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan

    2011-01-01

    Fire management will face many challenges in the future from global climate change to protecting people, communities, and values at risk. Simulation modeling will be a vital tool for addressing these challenges but the next generation of simulation models must be spatially explicit to address critical landscape ecology relationships and they must use mechanistic...

  12. A multidimensional stability model for predicting shallow landslide size and shape across landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    David G. Milledge; Dino Bellugi; Jim A. McKean; Alexander L. Densmore; William E. Dietrich

    2014-01-01

    The size of a shallow landslide is a fundamental control on both its hazard and geomorphic importance. Existing models are either unable to predict landslide size or are computationally intensive such that they cannot practically be applied across landscapes. We derive a model appropriate for natural slopes that is capable of predicting shallow landslide size but...

  13. Simulation modeling of forest landscape disturbances: Where do we go from here?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ajith H. Perera; Brian R. Sturtevant; Lisa J. Buse

    2015-01-01

    It was nearly a quarter-century ago when Turner and Gardner (1991) drew attention to methods of quantifying landscape patterns and processes, including simulation modeling. The many authors who contributed to that seminal text collectively signaled the emergence of a new field—spatially explicit simulation modeling of broad-scale ecosystem dynamics. Of particular note...

  14. Landscape capability models as a tool to predict fine-scale forest bird occupancy and abundance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loman, Zachary G.; DeLuca, William; Harrison, Daniel J.; Loftin, Cynthia S.; Rolek, Brian W.; Wood, Petra

    2018-01-01

    ContextSpecies-specific models of landscape capability (LC) can inform landscape conservation design. Landscape capability is “the ability of the landscape to provide the environment […] and the local resources […] needed for survival and reproduction […] in sufficient quantity, quality and accessibility to meet the life history requirements of individuals and local populations.” Landscape capability incorporates species’ life histories, ecologies, and distributions to model habitat for current and future landscapes and climates as a proactive strategy for conservation planning.ObjectivesWe tested the ability of a set of LC models to explain variation in point occupancy and abundance for seven bird species representative of spruce-fir, mixed conifer-hardwood, and riparian and wooded wetland macrohabitats.MethodsWe compiled point count data sets used for biological inventory, species monitoring, and field studies across the northeastern United States to create an independent validation data set. Our validation explicitly accounted for underestimation in validation data using joint distance and time removal sampling.ResultsBlackpoll warbler (Setophaga striata), wood thrush (Hylocichla mustelina), and Louisiana (Parkesia motacilla) and northern waterthrush (P. noveboracensis) models were validated as predicting variation in abundance, although this varied from not biologically meaningful (1%) to strongly meaningful (59%). We verified all seven species models [including ovenbird (Seiurus aurocapilla), blackburnian (Setophaga fusca) and cerulean warbler (Setophaga cerulea)], as all were positively related to occupancy data.ConclusionsLC models represent a useful tool for conservation planning owing to their predictive ability over a regional extent. As improved remote-sensed data become available, LC layers are updated, which will improve predictions.

  15. Modelling soil bulk density at the landscape scale and its contributions to C stock uncertainty

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. P. Taalab

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Soil bulk density (Db is a major contributor to uncertainties in landscape-scale carbon and nutrient stock estimation. However, it is time consuming to measure and is, therefore, frequently predicted using surrogate variables, such as soil texture. Using this approach is of limited value for estimating landscape-scale inventories, as its accuracy beyond the sampling point at which texture is measured becomes highly uncertain. In this paper, we explore the ability of soil landscape models to predict soil Db using a suite of landscape attributes and derivatives for both topsoil and subsoil. The models were constructed using random forests and artificial neural networks. Using these statistical methods, we have produced a spatially distributed prediction of Db on a 100 m × 100 m grid, which was shown to significantly improve topsoil carbon stock estimation. In comparison to using mean values from point measurements, stratified by soil class, we found that the gridded method predicted Db more accurately, especially for higher and lower values within the range. Within our study area of the Midlands, UK, we found that the gridded prediction of Db produced a stock inventory of over 1 million tonnes of carbon greater than the stratified mean method. Furthermore, the 95% confidence interval associated with total C stock prediction was almost halved by using the gridded method. The gridded approach was particularly useful in improving organic carbon (OC stock estimation for fine-scale landscape units at which many landscape–atmosphere interaction models operate.

  16. State-and-transition simulation models: a framework for forecasting landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Colin; Frid, Leonardo; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2016-01-01

    SummaryA wide range of spatially explicit simulation models have been developed to forecast landscape dynamics, including models for projecting changes in both vegetation and land use. While these models have generally been developed as separate applications, each with a separate purpose and audience, they share many common features.We present a general framework, called a state-and-transition simulation model (STSM), which captures a number of these common features, accompanied by a software product, called ST-Sim, to build and run such models. The STSM method divides a landscape into a set of discrete spatial units and simulates the discrete state of each cell forward as a discrete-time-inhomogeneous stochastic process. The method differs from a spatially interacting Markov chain in several important ways, including the ability to add discrete counters such as age and time-since-transition as state variables, to specify one-step transition rates as either probabilities or target areas, and to represent multiple types of transitions between pairs of states.We demonstrate the STSM method using a model of land-use/land-cover (LULC) change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. Processes represented in this example include expansion/contraction of agricultural lands, urbanization, wildfire, shrub encroachment into grassland and harvest of tree plantations; the model also projects shifts in moisture zones due to climate change. Key model output includes projections of the future spatial and temporal distribution of LULC classes and moisture zones across the landscape over the next 50 years.State-and-transition simulation models can be applied to a wide range of landscapes, including questions of both land-use change and vegetation dynamics. Because the method is inherently stochastic, it is well suited for characterizing uncertainty in model projections. When combined with the ST-Sim software, STSMs offer a simple yet powerful means for developing a wide range of models of

  17. Periglacial processes incorporated into a long-term landscape evolution model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, D.L.; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    allows us to study the conditions under which a regolith cover is likely to accelerate frost cracking. We find that thin layers of regolith may accelerate erosion in cold regions where the presence of surface water drives bedrock cracking during the summer period. The detailed sensitivity analysis also...... allows us to couple the frost-cracking model to a long- term landscape evolution model where surface elevation, sediment thickness, and air temperature evolve through time. This enables us to explore the spatial distribution of frost cracking in realistic landscapes, and to study the slow feedbacks...

  18. Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) Applicability on Nutrients Loadings Prediction in Mountainous Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) Watershed, Utah.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salha, A. A.; Stevens, D. K.

    2014-12-01

    The application of watershed simulation models is indispensable when pollution is generated by a nonpoint source. These models should be able to simulate large complex watersheds with varying soils, land use and management conditions over long periods of time. This study presents the application of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) to investigate, manage, and research the transport and fate of nutrients in (Subbasin HUC 16010204) Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) watershed, Box elder County, Utah. Water quality problems arise primarily from high phosphorus and total suspended sediment concentrations that were caused by increasing agricultural and farming activities and complex network of canals and ducts of varying sizes and carrying capacities that transport water (for farming and agriculture uses). Using the available input data (Digital Elevation Model (DEM), land use/Land cover (LULC), soil map and weather and climate data for 20 years (1990-2010) to predict the water quantity and quality of the LBMR watershed using a spatially distributed model version of hydrological ArcSWAT model (ArcSWAT 2012.10_1.14). No previous studies have been found in the literature regarding an in-depth simulation study of the Lower Bear Malad River (LBMR) watershed to simulate stream flow and to quantify the associated movement of nitrogen, phosphorus, and sediment. It is expected that the model mainly will predict monthly mean total phosphorus (TP) concentration and loadings in a mountainous LBRM watershed (steep Wellsville mountain range with peak of (2,857 m)) having into consideration the snow and runoff variables affecting the prediction process. The simulated nutrient concentrations were properly consistent with observations based on the R2 and Nash- Sutcliffe fitness factors. Further, the model will be able to manage and assess the land application in that area with corresponding to proper BMPs regarding water quality management. Keywords: Water Quality Modeling; Soil and

  19. Inter-model comparison of the landscape determinants of vector-borne disease: implications for epidemiological and entomological risk modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenz, Alyson; Dhingra, Radhika; Chang, Howard H; Bisanzio, Donal; Liu, Yang; Remais, Justin V

    2014-01-01

    Extrapolating landscape regression models for use in assessing vector-borne disease risk and other applications requires thoughtful evaluation of fundamental model choice issues. To examine implications of such choices, an analysis was conducted to explore the extent to which disparate landscape models agree in their epidemiological and entomological risk predictions when extrapolated to new regions. Agreement between six literature-drawn landscape models was examined by comparing predicted county-level distributions of either Lyme disease or Ixodes scapularis vector using Spearman ranked correlation. AUC analyses and multinomial logistic regression were used to assess the ability of these extrapolated landscape models to predict observed national data. Three models based on measures of vegetation, habitat patch characteristics, and herbaceous landcover emerged as effective predictors of observed disease and vector distribution. An ensemble model containing these three models improved precision and predictive ability over individual models. A priori assessment of qualitative model characteristics effectively identified models that subsequently emerged as better predictors in quantitative analysis. Both a methodology for quantitative model comparison and a checklist for qualitative assessment of candidate models for extrapolation are provided; both tools aim to improve collaboration between those producing models and those interested in applying them to new areas and research questions.

  20. The computational implementation of the landscape model: modeling inferential processes and memory representations of text comprehension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tzeng, Yuhtsuen; van den Broek, Paul; Kendeou, Panayiota; Lee, Chengyuan

    2005-05-01

    The complexity of text comprehension demands a computational approach to describe the cognitive processes involved. In this article, we present the computational implementation of the landscape model of reading. This model captures both on-line comprehension processes during reading and the off-line memory representation after reading is completed, incorporating both memory-based and coherence-based mechanisms of comprehension. The overall architecture and specific parameters of the program are described, and a running example is provided. Several studies comparing computational and behavioral data indicate that the implemented model is able to account for cycle-by-cycle comprehension processes and memory for a variety of text types and reading situations.

  1. A Guideline for Successful Calibration and Uncertainty Analysis for Soil and Water Assessment: A Review of Papers from the 2016 International SWAT Conference

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Karim C. Abbaspour

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Application of integrated hydrological models to manage a watershed’s water resources are increasingly finding their way into the decision-making processes. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT is a multi-process model integrating hydrology, ecology, agriculture, and water quality. SWAT is a continuation of nearly 40 years of modeling efforts conducted by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA Agricultural Research Service (ARS. A large number of SWAT-related papers have appeared in ISI journals, building a world-wide consensus around the model’s stability and usefulness. The current issue is a collection of the latest research using SWAT as the modeling tool. Most models must undergo calibration/validation and uncertainty analysis. Unfortunately, these sciences are not formal subjects of teaching in most universities and the students are often left to their own resources to calibrate their model. In this paper, we focus on calibration and uncertainty analysis highlighting some serious issues in the calibration of distributed models. A protocol for calibration is also highlighted to guide the users to obtain better modeling results. Finally, a summary of the papers published in this special issue is provided in the Appendix.

  2. Adaptive Landscape by Environment Interactions Dictate Evolutionary Dynamics in Models of Drug Resistance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogbunugafor, C. Brandon; Wylie, C. Scott; Diakite, Ibrahim; Weinreich, Daniel M.; Hartl, Daniel L.

    2016-01-01

    regards to their basic contribution to the study of empirical adaptive landscapes, and in terms of how they inform new models for the evolution of drug resistance. PMID:26808374

  3. Spatially-explicit modelling of nutrient loading to the landscape in the Great Lakes Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamlin, Q. F.; Kendall, A. D.; Martin, S. L.; Whitenack, H. D.; Hyndman, D. W.

    2016-12-01

    Loading of nitrogen and phosphorus to the landscape has resulted in dangerous algal blooms, contaminated drinking water, and decreased biodiversity. Here, we developed a GIS model to estimate spatially explicit nutrient loading across the Great Lakes Basin. The model expands on previous work in the lower peninsula of Michigan by Luscz et al. (2015). Inputs to the model include point source loads to streams along with five non-point source landscape loads: atmospheric deposition, chemical agricultural fertilizer, chemical non-agricultural fertilizer, manure application, and septic tanks. Scaling up from Michigan to the eight U.S. states and two Canadian provinces in the Great Lakes Basin provided unique challenges. In the case of the septic tank inputs, we compiled a multistate database of drinking water wells for use in an automated Python script to delineate wastewater treatment plant service areas and to estimate placement of septic tanks appropriately within the landscape. Using a model with individual nutrient inputs showed that even within a single land use class, there is high variability in loading rates. This variability suggests that simply prescribing loading estimates based on land use class is insufficient. Modelling high resolution and source specific landscape nutrient loading will be valuable to target strategies to decrease excessive anthropogenic nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Basin.

  4. Localization landscape theory of disorder in semiconductors. I. Theory and modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Filoche, Marcel; Piccardo, Marco; Wu, Yuh-Renn; Li, Chi-Kang; Weisbuch, Claude; Mayboroda, Svitlana

    2017-04-01

    We present here a model of carrier distribution and transport in semiconductor alloys accounting for quantum localization effects in disordered materials. This model is based on the recent development of a mathematical theory of quantum localization which introduces for each type of carrier a spatial function called localization landscape. These landscapes allow us to predict the localization regions of electron and hole quantum states, their corresponding energies, and the local densities of states. We show how the various outputs of these landscapes can be directly implemented into a drift-diffusion model of carrier transport and into the calculation of absorption/emission transitions. This creates a new computational model which accounts for disorder localization effects while also capturing two major effects of quantum mechanics, namely, the reduction of barrier height (tunneling effect) and the raising of energy ground states (quantum confinement effect), without having to solve the Schrödinger equation. Finally, this model is applied to several one-dimensional structures such as single quantum wells, ordered and disordered superlattices, or multiquantum wells, where comparisons with exact Schrödinger calculations demonstrate the excellent accuracy of the approximation provided by the landscape theory.

  5. SWATS: Diurnal Trends in the Soil Temperature Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cook, David [Argonne National Lab. (ANL), Argonne, IL (United States); Theisen, Adam [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United States)

    2017-06-30

    During the processing of data for the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Climate Research Facility ARMBE2D Value-Added Product (VAP), the developers noticed that the SWATS soil temperatures did not show a decreased temporal variability with increased depth with the new E30+ Extended Facilities (EFs), unlike the older EFs at ARM’s Southern Great Plains (SGP) site. The instrument mentor analyzed the data and reported that all SWATS locations have shown this behavior but that the magnitude of the problem was greatest at EFs E31-E38. The data were analyzed to verify the initial assessments of: 1. 5 cm SWATS data were valid for all EFs and 15 cm soil temperature measurements were valid at all EFs other than E31-E38, 2. Use only nighttime SWATS soil temperature measurements to calculate daily average soil temperatures, 3. Since it seems likely that the soil temperature measurements below 15cm were affected by the solar heating of the enclosure at all but E31-38, and at all depths below 5cm at E31-38, individual measurements of soil temperature at these depths during daylight hours, and daily averages of the same, can ot be trusted on most (particularly sunny) days.

  6. Residues of cypermethrin and endosulfan in soils of Swat valley

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Nafees

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available Swat Valley was studied for two widely used pesticides; cypermethrin and endosulfan. A total of 63 soil samples were collected from 27 villages selected for this purpose. The collected soil samples were extracted with n-hexane, pesticides were separated, identified and quantified by a GC-ECD system. Endosulfan was 0.24 - 1.51 mg kg-1 and 0.13 - 12.67 mg kg-1 in rainfed and irrigated areas, respectively. The residual level of cypermethrin was comparatively high with a level of0.14 to 27.62 mg kg-1 and 0.05 to 73.75 mg kg-1 in rainfed and irrigated areas, respectively. For assessing the possible causes of pesticide residues in soil, 360 farmers were interviewed. It was found that both, cypermethrin and endosulfan, apart from agriculture were also widely misused for fishing in the entire stretch of River Swat and its tributaries. River Swat is used for irrigation in Swat Valley and this wide misuse of pesticides can also contribute to pesticide residue in soil.

  7. Malnutrition amongst Under-Five Years Children in Swat, Pakistan ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... The incidence of malnutrition is about the same for both male and female children. Risk factors for malnutrition in the children include lack of education, teenage pregnancy, lack of immunization, and large family size. Keywords: Malnutrition, Gomezfs classification, Weaning time, Risk factors, Teenage pregnancy, Swat ...

  8. Integrated analysis of landscape management scenarios using state and transition models in the upper Grande Ronde River subbasin, Oregon, USA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miles A. Hemstrom; James Merzenich; Allison Reger; Barbara. Wales

    2007-01-01

    We modeled the integrated effects of natural disturbances and management activities for three disturbance scenarios on a 178 000-ha landscape in the upper Grande Ronde subbasin of northeast Oregon. The landscape included three forest environments (warm-dry, cool-moist, and cold) as well as a mixture of publicly and privately owned lands. Our models were state and...

  9. Design, development, and application of LANDIS-II, a spatial landscape simulation model with flexible temporal and spatial resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert M. Scheller; James B. Domingo; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jeremy S. Williams; Arnold Rudy; Eric J. Gustafson; David J. Mladenoff

    2007-01-01

    We introduce LANDIS-II, a landscape model designed to simulate forest succession and disturbances. LANDIS-II builds upon and preserves the functionality of previous LANDIS forest landscape simulation models. LANDIS-II is distinguished by the inclusion of variable time steps for different ecological processes; our use of a rigorous development and testing process used...

  10. From basalts to badlands : modelling long-term landscape response to lava damming of an upland catchment in western Turkey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gorp, van W.

    2014-01-01

    Combining field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling can be useful to investigate the relative role of different drivers (tectonics, climate, local base level) on long term catchment evolution. In this thesis, field reconstruction and landscape evolution modelling are combined to unravel

  11. Modelling 3D Chemical Weathering Evolution Using Dissolving and Moving Clasts in a Landscape Evolution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carretier, S.; Martinez, J.; Martinod, P.; Reich, M.; Godderis, Y.

    2014-12-01

    During mountain uplift, fresh silicate rocks are exhumed and broken into small pieces, potentially increasing their chemical weathering rate and thus the consumption of atmospheric CO2. This process remains debated because although erosion provides fresh rocks, it may also decrease their residence time near Earth's surface where clasts weather. Several recent publications also emphasized the key role of forelands in the weathering of clasts exported from the mountains by erosion. Predicting the chemical outflux of mountains requires to account for the chemical evolution of these rocks from their source to outlet. Powerful chemical models based on diffusion-advection of species between rocks and water have been developed at pedon scale, and recently at hillslope scale. In order to track the weathered material, we have developed a different approach based on the introduction into a 3D landscape evolution model (CIDRE) of dissolving discrete spherical clasts that move downslope. In CIDRE, local erosion and deposition depend on slope and water discharge which adapt dynamically during the topographical evolution. On a cell, bedrock is converted to soil at a rate depending on soil thickness. Clasts are initially spread at specified depths. They have a specified initial size and mineralogical composition. Once they enter the soil, they begins to dissolve at a rate depending on their minerals, temperature and exposed area, which decreases the clast size. Clasts move downstream according to probabilities depending on the ratio between the calculated local deposition and erosion fluxes. Chemical outflux is calculated for each clast during its life. At pedon scale, the model predicts chemical depleted fractions close to that obtained with advection-diffusion models and in agreement with measurements. An integrated chemical flux is estimated for the whole landscape from the clast dissolution rates. This flux reaches a stable solution using a suitable number of initial clasts

  12. Landscape ecology and wild rabbit (Oryctolagus cuniculus habitat modeling in the Mediterranean region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Narce, M.

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Landscape modification is one of the reasons for the decrease in rabbit populations. The objective of this study was to model wild rabbit habitat using landscape ecology to create a diagnosis method able to assess habitat quality at a large scale. Rabbit presence/absence was recorded on 536 plots of 1 ha. Spotlight transect counts indicated a low relative abundance (KIA = 2.3 rabbits/km. We produced a land use map with metric precision using remote sensing. Water, bare soil, herbaceous, shrubs and trees were identified. Landscape structure and diversity were evaluated using variables available in FRAGSTATS. A logistic regression was performed to assess the link between rabbit presence/absence and landscape structure. Our results indicate that a suitable habitat has a high diversity, a medium number of patches and a small proportion of shrubs. These results could be used to diagnose the landscape prior to any management action to enhance rabbit populations and conversely be helpful as a tool of integrated control in the cases of local outbreaks with agricultural damages.

  13. Potential energy landscapes for the 2D XY model: Minima, transition states, and pathways

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, Dhagash; Hughes, Ciaran; Schröck, Mario; Wales, David J.

    2013-11-01

    We describe a numerical study of the potential energy landscape for the two-dimensional XY model (with no disorder), considering up to 100 spins and central processing unit and graphics processing unit implementations of local optimization, focusing on minima and saddles of index one (transition states). We examine both periodic and anti-periodic boundary conditions, and show that the number of stationary points located increases exponentially with increasing lattice size. The corresponding disconnectivity graphs exhibit funneled landscapes; the global minima are readily located because they exhibit relatively large basins of attraction compared to the higher energy minima as the lattice size increases.

  14. Effects of farm heterogeneity and methods for upscaling on modelled nitrogen losses in agricultural landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dalgaard, Tommy; Hutchings, Nicholas John; Dragosits, U

    2011-01-01

    The aim of this study is to illustrate the importance of farm scale heterogeneity on nitrogen (N) losses in agricultural landscapes. Results are exemplified with a chain of N models calculating farm-N balances and distributing the N-surplus to N-losses (volatilisation, denitrification, leaching...

  15. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eric J. Gustafson; Arjan M.G. De Bruijn; Robert E. Pangle; Jean-Marc Limousin; Nate G. McDowell; William T. Pockman; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jordan D. Muss; Mark E. Kubiske

    2015-01-01

    Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and...

  16. Modeling larval malaria vector habitat locations using landscape features and cumulative precipitation measures

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mc Cann, R.S.; Messina, J.P.; MacFarlane, D.W.; Bayoh, M.N.; Vulule, J.M.; Gimnig, J.E.; Walker, E.D.

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Predictive models of malaria vector larval habitat locations may provide a basis for understanding the spatial determinants of malaria transmission. METHODS: We used four landscape variables (topographic wetness index [TWI], soil type, land use-land cover, and distance to stream) and

  17. Potential energy landscape of the two-dimensional XY model: Higher-index stationary points

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mehta, D.; Hughes, C.; Kastner, M.; Wales, D. J.

    2014-06-01

    The application of numerical techniques to the study of energy landscapes of large systems relies on sufficient sampling of the stationary points. Since the number of stationary points is believed to grow exponentially with system size, we can only sample a small fraction. We investigate the interplay between this restricted sample size and the physical features of the potential energy landscape for the two-dimensional XY model in the absence of disorder with up to N = 100 spins. Using an eigenvector-following technique, we numerically compute stationary points with a given Hessian index I for all possible values of I. We investigate the number of stationary points, their energy and index distributions, and other related quantities, with particular focus on the scaling with N. The results are used to test a number of conjectures and approximate analytic results for the general properties of energy landscapes.

  18. Process and Form in Holocene Landscapes: Modelling Human and Climatic Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainwright, J.

    2003-12-01

    Observations suggest that Mediterranean environments are significantly more sensitive to human impacts that to climate change through the Holocene period. However, many explanations of landscape change rest on interpretations of climatic variability that are difficult to sustain. Erosion and sedimentation data support an interpretation relating to local- (and later regional-) scale human modifications of the landscape with major and often irreversible impacts on the soil resource. For example, on the Causse de Gramat, SW France, erosion rates have varied significantly over distances of several kilometres under very similar geological, soil and climate conditions over the last 6,000 years. Despite the realization that human activity significantly modifies the erosional landscape in such settings, most work aiming at understanding these impacts has been very simplistic. The difficulty of estimating time-varying human impacts has commonly led to the use of relatively basic scenario-based models, particularly over the longer term. Scenario-based approaches suffer from two major problems. They are typically static, so that there is no feedback between the impact and its consequences, even though the latter might often lead to major behavioural modifications. Secondly, there is an element of circularity in the arguments used to generate scenarios for understanding past landform change, in that changes are known to have happened, so that scenarios big enough to produce them are often generated without considering the range of possible alternatives. The approach presented here draws on agent-based models to investigate human interactions with the landscape. Agent-based models use a "bottom-up" approach to the development of these interactions by investing decision-making capacities at the level of individuals, whose behaviour is constrained by the nature of the landscape itself and by interaction with other individuals within it. The model presented consists of four

  19. Calibration and testing of upland hillslope evolution models in a dated landscape: Banco Bonito, New Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, Jon D.; McGuire, Luke A.; Ash, Jeanine L.; Engelder, Todd M.; Hill, Loren E.; Leroy, Kenneth W.; Orem, Caitlin A.; Rosenthal, W. Steven; Trees, Mark A.; Rasmussen, Craig; Chorover, Jon

    2011-12-01

    In this study we tested upland hillslope evolution models and constrained the rates of regolith production, colluvial transport, and eolian deposition over geologic time scales in a dated volcanic landscape in northern New Mexico using field measurements of regolith thickness; geochemical analyses of regolith, bedrock, and regional dust; numerical modeling of regolith production and transport; and quantitative analyses of airborne light detection and ranging (lidar) digital elevation models (DEMs). Within this volcanic landscape, many topographically closed basins exist as a result of compressional folding and explosion pitting during eruption. The landscape has evolved from an initial state of no regolith cover at 40 ± 5 ka to its modern state, which has highly weathered regolith ranging from 0 to 3+ m, with local thickness values controlled primarily by topographic position. Our models constrain the maximum rate of regolith production in the study area to be in the range of 0.02 to 0.12 m kyr-1 and the rate of colluvial transport per unit slope gradient to be in the range of 0.2 to 2.7 m2 kyr-1, with higher values in areas with more aboveground biomass. We conclude that a depth-dependent colluvial transport model better predicts the observed spatial distribution of regolith thickness compared to a model that has no depth dependence. This study adds to the database of estimates for rates of regolith production and transport in the western United States and shows how dated landscapes can be used to improve our understanding of the coevolution of landscapes and regolith cover.

  20. Diploid biological evolution models with general smooth fitness landscapes and recombination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saakian, David B; Kirakosyan, Zara; Hu, Chin-Kun

    2008-06-01

    Using a Hamilton-Jacobi equation approach, we obtain analytic equations for steady-state population distributions and mean fitness functions for Crow-Kimura and Eigen-type diploid biological evolution models with general smooth hypergeometric fitness landscapes. Our numerical solutions of diploid biological evolution models confirm the analytic equations obtained. We also study the parallel diploid model for the simple case of recombination and calculate the variance of distribution, which is consistent with numerical results.

  1. Finite population size effects in quasispecies models with single-peak fitness landscape

    OpenAIRE

    Saakian, David B.; Deem, Michael W.; Hu, Chin Kun

    2012-01-01

    We consider finite population size effects for Crow-Kimura and Eigen quasispecies models with single peak fitness landscape. We formulate accurately the iteration procedure for the finite population models, then derive Hamilton-Jacobi equation (HJE) to describe the dynamic of the probability distribution. The steady state solution of HJE gives the variance of the mean fitness. Our results are useful for understanding population sizes of virus in which the infinite population models can give r...

  2. Comparison of performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT 2009 and 2012 in an extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Tian; Gitau, Margaret; Merwade, Venkatesh; Arnold, Jeffrey; Srinivasan, Raghavan; Hirschi, Michael; Engel, Bernard

    2018-01-01

    Subsurface tile drainage systems are widely used in agricultural watersheds in the Midwestern US and enable the Midwest area to become highly productive agricultural lands, but can also create environmental problems, for example nitrate-N contamination associated with drainage waters. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) has been used to model watersheds with tile drainage. SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 provide new tile drainage routines. However, few studies have used these revisions to study tile drainage impacts at both field and watershed scales. Moreover, SWAT2012 revision 645 improved the soil moisture based curve number calculation method, which has not been fully tested. This study used long-term (1991-2003) field site and river station data from the Little Vermilion River (LVR) watershed to evaluate performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT2009 revision 528 (the old routine) and SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 (the new routine). Both the old and new routines provided reasonable but unsatisfactory (NSE sediment and annual corn and soybean yield results from SWAT with the old and new tile drainage routines were compared with observed values. Generally, the new routine provided acceptable simulated tile flow (NSE = 0.48-0.65) and nitrate in tile flow (NSE = 0.48-0.68) for field sites with random pattern tile and constant tile spacing, while the old routine simulated tile flow and nitrate in tile flow results for the field site with constant tile spacing were unacceptable (NSE = 0.00-0.32 and -0.29-0.06, respectively). The new modified curve number calculation method in revision 645 (NSE = 0.50-0.81) better simulated surface runoff than revision 615 (NSE = -0.11-0.49). The calibration provided reasonable parameter sets for the old and new routines in the LVR watershed, and the validation results showed that the new routine has the potential to accurately simulate hydrologic processes in mildly sloped watersheds.

  3. A Landscape-level Model for Ecosystem Restoration in the San Francisco Estuary and Its Watershed

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wim Kimmerer

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available The CALFED Bay-Delta Program is an ambitious effort to restore ecosystems and improve reliability of ecosystem services in California’s Central Valley. Key issues for CALFED and its Ecosystem Restoration Program (ERP include (1 meeting societal demand for multiple, potentially conflicting ecosystem services; (2 the tradeoff among more or less environmentally intrusive approaches to solving problems; (3 whether restoration should focus at the ecosystem level or on individual species; (4 the appropriate response to uncertainty; and (5 the tension between action and investigation. A long-term, landscape-scale perspective is essential for framing the scientific questions underlying these broad issues. We introduce a landscape-scale conceptual model that illustrates linkages, including material flows and animal migration, among the major ecosystem components being described in detail in a series of review papers. This model shows how linkages between ecosystem components result in remote consequences of locally applied restoration actions. The network of linkages is made more complicated by human interventions, which add components not previously a part of the landscape (e.g., salmonid hatcheries and alter or even reverse causal relations. A landscape perspective also helps identify conceptual gaps in CALFED’s restoration strategy, such as climate change and human population growth, which should be explicitly considered in forecasts of the long-term prospects for restoration. A landscape perspective is no panacea; in particular, the effects of restoration at this scale will be difficult to detect. Nevertheless, we advocate integrating investigations of processes at nested, smaller scales as an approach for evaluating effects of individual restoration actions and of the entire program. We believe CALFED and other large restoration programs will be most successful if they are able to integrate both societal expectations and scientific study at the

  4. Spatially-Explicit Bayesian Information Entropy Metrics for Calibrating Landscape Transformation Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kostas Alexandridis

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Assessing spatial model performance often presents challenges related to the choice and suitability of traditional statistical methods in capturing the true validity and dynamics of the predicted outcomes. The stochastic nature of many of our contemporary spatial models of land use change necessitate the testing and development of new and innovative methodologies in statistical spatial assessment. In many cases, spatial model performance depends critically on the spatially-explicit prior distributions, characteristics, availability and prevalence of the variables and factors under study. This study explores the statistical spatial characteristics of statistical model assessment of modeling land use change dynamics in a seven-county study area in South-Eastern Wisconsin during the historical period of 1963–1990. The artificial neural network-based Land Transformation Model (LTM predictions are used to compare simulated with historical land use transformations in urban/suburban landscapes. We introduce a range of Bayesian information entropy statistical spatial metrics for assessing the model performance across multiple simulation testing runs. Bayesian entropic estimates of model performance are compared against information-theoretic stochastic entropy estimates and theoretically-derived accuracy assessments. We argue for the critical role of informational uncertainty across different scales of spatial resolution in informing spatial landscape model assessment. Our analysis reveals how incorporation of spatial and landscape information asymmetry estimates can improve our stochastic assessments of spatial model predictions. Finally our study shows how spatially-explicit entropic classification accuracy estimates can work closely with dynamic modeling methodologies in improving our scientific understanding of landscape change as a complex adaptive system and process.

  5. Surveying the SO(10) model landscape: The left-right symmetric case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deppisch, Frank F.; Gonzalo, Tomás E.; Graf, Lukas

    2017-09-01

    Grand unified theories (GUTs) are a very well motivated extensions of the Standard Model (SM), but the landscape of models and possibilities is overwhelming, and different patterns can lead to rather distinct phenomenologies. In this work we present a way to automatize the model building process, by considering a top to bottom approach that constructs viable and sensible theories from a small and controllable set of inputs at the high scale. By providing a GUT scale symmetry group and the field content, possible symmetry breaking paths are generated and checked for consistency, ensuring anomaly cancellation, SM embedding and gauge coupling unification. We emphasize the usefulness of this approach for the particular case of a nonsupersymmetric SO(10) model with an intermediate left-right symmetry, and we analyze how low-energy observables such as proton decay and lepton flavor violation might affect the generated model landscape.

  6. Spatial landscape model to characterize biological diversity using R statistical computing environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singh, Hariom; Garg, R D; Karnatak, Harish C; Roy, Arijit

    2018-01-15

    Due to urbanization and population growth, the degradation of natural forests and associated biodiversity are now widely recognized as a global environmental concern. Hence, there is an urgent need for rapid assessment and monitoring of biodiversity on priority using state-of-art tools and technologies. The main purpose of this research article is to develop and implement a new methodological approach to characterize biological diversity using spatial model developed during the study viz. Spatial Biodiversity Model (SBM). The developed model is scale, resolution and location independent solution for spatial biodiversity richness modelling. The platform-independent computation model is based on parallel computation. The biodiversity model based on open-source software has been implemented on R statistical computing platform. It provides information on high disturbance and high biological richness areas through different landscape indices and site specific information (e.g. forest fragmentation (FR), disturbance index (DI) etc.). The model has been developed based on the case study of Indian landscape; however it can be implemented in any part of the world. As a case study, SBM has been tested for Uttarakhand state in India. Inputs for landscape ecology are derived through multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) techniques in an interactive command line environment. MCDM with sensitivity analysis in spatial domain has been carried out to illustrate the model stability and robustness. Furthermore, spatial regression analysis has been made for the validation of the output. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  7. Visualization and modeling of smoke transport over landscape scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Glenn P. Forney; William Mell

    2007-01-01

    Computational tools have been developed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST) for modeling fire spread and smoke transport. These tools have been adapted to address fire scenarios that occur in the wildland urban interface (WUI) over kilometer-scale distances. These models include the smoke plume transport model ALOFT (A Large Open Fire plume...

  8. An individual-based modelling approach to estimate landscape connectivity for bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Corrie H. Allen

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available Background. Preserving connectivity, or the ability of a landscape to support species movement, is among the most commonly recommended strategies to reduce the negative effects of climate change and human land use development on species. Connectivity analyses have traditionally used a corridor-based approach and rely heavily on least cost path modeling and circuit theory to delineate corridors. Individual-based models are gaining popularity as a potentially more ecologically realistic method of estimating landscape connectivity. However, this remains a relatively unexplored approach. We sought to explore the utility of a simple, individual-based model as a land-use management support tool in identifying and implementing landscape connectivity. Methods. We created an individual-based model of bighorn sheep (Ovis canadensis that simulates a bighorn sheep traversing a landscape by following simple movement rules. The model was calibrated for bighorn sheep in the Okanagan Valley, British Columbia, Canada, a region containing isolated herds that are vital to conservation of the species in its northern range. Simulations were run to determine baseline connectivity between subpopulations in the study area. We then applied the model to explore two land management scenarios on simulated connectivity: restoring natural fire regimes and identifying appropriate sites for interventions that would increase road permeability for bighorn sheep. Results. This model suggests there are no continuous areas of good habitat between current subpopulations of sheep in the study area; however, a series of stepping-stones or circuitous routes could facilitate movement between subpopulations and into currently unoccupied, yet suitable, bighorn habitat. Restoring natural fire regimes or mimicking fire with prescribed burns and tree removal could considerably increase bighorn connectivity in this area. Moreover, several key road crossing sites that could benefit from

  9. Assessing the efficacy of the SWAT auto-irrigation function to simulate Irrigation, evapotranspiration and crop response to irrigation management strategies of the Texas High Plains

    Science.gov (United States)

    The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model is widely used for simulation of hydrologic processes at various temporal and spatial scales. Less common are long-term simulation analyses of water balance components including agricultural management practices such as irrigation management. In the se...

  10. TTLEM: Open access tool for building numerically accurate landscape evolution models in MATLAB

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campforts, Benjamin; Schwanghart, Wolfgang; Govers, Gerard

    2017-04-01

    Despite a growing interest in LEMs, accuracy assessment of the numerical methods they are based on has received little attention. Here, we present TTLEM which is an open access landscape evolution package designed to develop and test your own scenarios and hypothesises. TTLEM uses a higher order flux-limiting finite-volume method to simulate river incision and tectonic displacement. We show that this scheme significantly influences the evolution of simulated landscapes and the spatial and temporal variability of erosion rates. Moreover, it allows the simulation of lateral tectonic displacement on a fixed grid. Through the use of a simple GUI the software produces visible output of evolving landscapes through model run time. In this contribution, we illustrate numerical landscape evolution through a set of movies spanning different spatial and temporal scales. We focus on the erosional domain and use both spatially constant and variable input values for uplift, lateral tectonic shortening, erodibility and precipitation. Moreover, we illustrate the relevance of a stochastic approach for realistic hillslope response modelling. TTLEM is a fully open source software package, written in MATLAB and based on the TopoToolbox platform (topotoolbox.wordpress.com). Installation instructions can be found on this website and the therefore designed GitHub repository.

  11. Modelling of evapotranspiration at field and landscape scales. Abstract

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Overgaard, Jesper; Butts, M.B.; Rosbjerg, Dan

    2002-01-01

    The overall aim of this project is to couple a non-hydrostatic atmospheric model (ARPS) to an integrated hydrological model (MIKE SHE) to investigate atmospheric and hydrological feedbacks at different scales. To ensure a consistent coupling a new land-surface component based on a modified...... Shuttleworth-Wallace scheme was implemented in MIKE SHE. To validate the new land-surface component at different scales, the hydrological model was applied to an intensively monitored 10 km2 agricultural area in Denmark with a resolution of 40 meter. The model is forced with half-hourly metorological...... observations from a nearby weather station. Detailed land-use and soil maps were used to set up the model. Leaf area index was derived from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index) images. To validate the model at field scale the simulated evapotranspiration rates were compared to eddy...

  12. Phenomenological Models for Landscape Signatures: Review and Recommendations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Ballard, Jerrell

    2004-01-01

    ... sensors that are commonly applied to the mine detection problem (either surface or buried). The report lists important predictive high-resolution atmospheric, environmental, and geophysical models...

  13. Did tillage erosion play a role in millennial scale landscape development? - an evaluation in SE Spain using a landscape evolution model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Baartman, J.E.M.; Temme, A.J.A.M.; Schoorl, J.M.; Braakhekke, M.H.A.; Veldkamp, A.

    2012-01-01

    Landscape evolution models (LEMs) quantitatively simulate processes of sedimentation and erosion on millennial timescales. An important aspect of human impact on erosion is sediment redistribution due to agriculture, referred to herein as tillage erosion. In this study we aim to analyse the

  14. Revision and application of the LINKAGES model to simulate forest growth in central hardwood landscapes in response to climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    William D. Dijak; Brice B. Hanberry; Jacob S. Fraser; Hong S. He; Wen J. Wang; Frank R. Thompson

    2017-01-01

    Context. Global climate change impacts forest growth and methods of modeling those impacts at the landscape scale are needed to forecast future forest species composition change and abundance. Changes in forest landscapes will affect ecosystem processes and services such as succession and disturbance, wildlife habitat, and production of forest...

  15. Painting a picture across the landscape with ModelMap

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brian Cooke; Elizabeth Freeman; Gretchen Moisen; Tracey Frescino

    2017-01-01

    Scientists and statisticians working for the Rocky Mountain Research Station have created a software package that simplifies and automates many of the processes needed for converting models into maps. This software package, called ModelMap, has helped a variety of specialists and land managers to quickly convert data into easily understood graphical images. The...

  16. Geographically Isolated Wetlands and Catchment Hydrology: A Modified Model Analyses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evenson, G.; Golden, H. E.; Lane, C.; D'Amico, E.

    2014-12-01

    Geographically isolated wetlands (GIWs), typically defined as depressional wetlands surrounded by uplands, support an array of hydrological and ecological processes. However, key research questions concerning the hydrological connectivity of GIWs and their impacts on downgradient surface waters remain unanswered. This is particularly important for regulation and management of these systems. For example, in the past decade United States Supreme Court decisions suggest that GIWs can be afforded protection if significant connectivity exists between these waters and traditional navigable waters. Here we developed a simulation procedure to quantify the effects of various spatial distributions of GIWs across the landscape on the downgradient hydrograph using a refined version of the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), a catchment-scale hydrological simulation model. We modified the SWAT FORTRAN source code and employed an alternative hydrologic response unit (HRU) definition to facilitate an improved representation of GIW hydrologic processes and connectivity relationships to other surface waters, and to quantify their downgradient hydrological effects. We applied the modified SWAT model to an ~ 202 km2 catchment in the Coastal Plain of North Carolina, USA, exhibiting a substantial population of mapped GIWs. Results from our series of GIW distribution scenarios suggest that: (1) Our representation of GIWs within SWAT conforms to field-based characterizations of regional GIWs in most respects; (2) GIWs exhibit substantial seasonally-dependent effects upon downgradient base flow; (3) GIWs mitigate peak flows, particularly following high rainfall events; and (4) The presence of GIWs on the landscape impacts the catchment water balance (e.g., by increasing groundwater outflows). Our outcomes support the hypothesis that GIWs have an important catchment-scale effect on downgradient streamflow.

  17. The Role of Participatory Modeling in Landscape Approaches to Reconcile Conservation and Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marieke Sandker

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Conservation organizations are increasingly turning to landscape approaches to achieve a balance between conservation and development goals. We use six case studies in Africa and Asia to explore the role of participatory modeling with stakeholders as one of the steps towards implementing a landscape approach. The modeling was enthusiastically embraced by some stakeholders and led to impact in some cases. Different stakeholders valued the modeling exercise differently. Noteworthy was the difference between those stakeholders connected to the policy process and scientists; the presence of the former in the modeling activities is key to achieving policy impacts, and the latter were most critical of participatory modeling. Valued aspects of the modeling included stimulating cross-sector strategic thinking, and helping participants to confront the real drivers of change and to recognize trade-offs. The modeling was generally considered to be successful in building shared understanding of issues. This understanding was gained mainly in the discussions held in the process of building the model rather than in the model outputs. The model itself reflects but a few of the main elements of the usually rich discussions that preceded its finalization. Problems emerged when models became too complex. Key lessons for participatory modeling are the need for good facilitation in order to maintain a balance between "models as stories" and technical modeling, and the importance of inviting the appropriate stakeholders to achieve impact.

  18. Prediction of soil depth using a soil-landscape regression model: a case study on forest soils in southern Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tsai, C C; Chen, Z S; Duh, C T; Horng, F W

    2001-01-01

    Techniques for conventional forest soil surveys in Taiwan need to be further developed in order to save time and money. Although some soil-landscape regression models have been developed to describe and predict soil properties and depths, they have seldom been studied in Taiwan. This study establishes linear soil-landscape regression models related to soil depths and landscape factors found in the forest soils of southern Taiwan. These models were evaluated by validating the models according to their mean errors and root mean square errors. The study was carried out at the 60,000 ha Chishan Forest Working Circle. About 310 soil pedons were collected. The landscape factors included elevation, slope, aspect, and surface stone contents. Sixty percent of the total field samples were used to establish the soil-landscape regression models, and forty % were used for validation. The sampling strategy indicated that each representative pedon covers an area of about 147 ha. The number of samples was appropriate considering the available time and budget. The single variate and/or multivariate linear regression soil-landscape models were successfully established. Those models revealed significant inter-relations among the soil depths of the B and B+BC horizons, solum thickness, and landscape factors, including slope and surface stone contents (p stone should be collected in a field soil survey to increase the precision of soil depth prediction of the B and B+BC horizons, and the solum thickness.

  19. The cultural route of present and lost landscapes in the centre of Bucharest - digital model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bostenaru-Dan, Maria

    2015-04-01

    We are developing a digital model of the Magheru boulevard in central Bucharest. This N-S axis in the centre of the city is a unique encounter with interwar architecture. It is a protected area in the city, with buildings listed individually or as group of monuments, and also with protection at urban planning level. But at the same time the landscape does not facilitate the building of urban routes between monuments. A GIS model of the area exists, but does not yet take into account this heritage value of the buildings, being developed in a civil engineering environment. It is also one of the few partial 3D models of Bucharest. It allows datascapes of various buidling characteristics. At the same time a 3D model which equally covers all items in an area is ressources expensive. Hence, we propose, similarly to strategic planning to do a Kevin Lynch type selection. Landmarks will be identified as nodes of the routes, and the remaining area treated as zone. Ways connect the nodes and we paid special attention as we will see to their landscape. We developed a concept on how to further build from the idea of layers in GIS to include the issue of scale. As such, floor plans can build strategic points for the nodes of the route such as in Nolli or Sitte plans. Cooperation between GIS and GoogleEarth is envisaged, since GoogleEarth allows for detailing in SketchUp for the interior space. This way we developed an alternative digital model to the levels of detail of CityGML, the classical for 3D city models. The route itself is to be analysed with the method of Space Syntax. While this part of the research focused on the built heritage, on culture, we included also issues of landscape. First, the landscape of the boulevard has to be shaped as to build the route between these nodes of the route. Our concept includes the creation of pocket parks and of links between the pocket parks through vegetal and mineral elements to connect them. Existing urban spaces and empty plots are

  20. Sequence2Vec: a novel embedding approach for modeling transcription factor binding affinity landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dai, Hanjun; Umarov, Ramzan; Kuwahara, Hiroyuki; Li, Yu; Song, Le; Gao, Xin

    2017-11-15

    An accurate characterization of transcription factor (TF)-DNA affinity landscape is crucial to a quantitative understanding of the molecular mechanisms underpinning endogenous gene regulation. While recent advances in biotechnology have brought the opportunity for building binding affinity prediction methods, the accurate characterization of TF-DNA binding affinity landscape still remains a challenging problem. Here we propose a novel sequence embedding approach for modeling the transcription factor binding affinity landscape. Our method represents DNA binding sequences as a hidden Markov model which captures both position specific information and long-range dependency in the sequence. A cornerstone of our method is a novel message passing-like embedding algorithm, called Sequence2Vec, which maps these hidden Markov models into a common nonlinear feature space and uses these embedded features to build a predictive model. Our method is a novel combination of the strength of probabilistic graphical models, feature space embedding and deep learning. We conducted comprehensive experiments on over 90 large-scale TF-DNA datasets which were measured by different high-throughput experimental technologies. Sequence2Vec outperforms alternative machine learning methods as well as the state-of-the-art binding affinity prediction methods. Our program is freely available at https://github.com/ramzan1990/sequence2vec. xin.gao@kaust.edu.sa or lsong@cc.gatech.edu. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  1. Assessing a landscape barrier using genetic simulation modelling: implications for raccoon rabies management.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rees, Erin E; Pond, Bruce A; Cullingham, Catherine I; Tinline, Rowland; Ball, David; Kyle, Christopher J; White, Bradley N

    2008-08-15

    Landscape barriers influence movement patterns of animals, which in turn, affect spatio-temporal spread of infectious wildlife disease. We compare genetic data from computer simulations to those acquired from field samples to measure the effect of a landscape barrier on raccoon (Procyon lotor) movement, enabling risk assessment of raccoon rabies disease spread across the Niagara River from New York State into Ontario, an area currently uninfected by rabies. An individual-based spatially explicit model is used to simulate the expansion of a raccoon population to cross the Niagara River, for different permeabilities of the river to raccoon crossings. Since the model records individual raccoon genetics, the genetic population structure of neutral mitochondrial DNA haplotypes are characterised in the expanding population, every 25 years, using a genetic distance measure, phi ST, Mantel tests and a gene diversity measure. The river barrier effect is assessed by comparing genetic measures computed from model outputs to those calculated from 166 raccoons recently sampled from the same landscape. The "best fit" between modelled scenarios and field data indicate the river prevents 50% of attempts to cross the river. Founder effects dominated the colonizing genetic population structure, and, as the river barrier effect increased, its genetic diversity decreased. Using gene flow to calibrate the effect of the river as a barrier to movement provides an estimate of the effect of a river in reducing the likelihood of cross-river infection. Including individual genetic markers in simulation modelling benefits investigations of disease spread and control.

  2. Using multilevel models to identify drivers of landscape-genetic structure among management areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dudaniec, Rachael Y; Rhodes, Jonathan R; Worthington Wilmer, Jessica; Lyons, Mitchell; Lee, Kristen E; McAlpine, Clive A; Carrick, Frank N

    2013-07-01

    Landscape genetics offers a powerful approach to understanding species' dispersal patterns. However, a central obstacle is to account for ecological processes operating at multiple spatial scales, while keeping research outcomes applicable to conservation management. We address this challenge by applying a novel multilevel regression approach to model landscape drivers of genetic structure at both the resolution of individuals and at a spatial resolution relevant to management (i.e. local government management areas: LGAs) for the koala (Phascolartos cinereus) in Australia. Our approach allows for the simultaneous incorporation of drivers of landscape-genetic relationships operating at multiple spatial resolutions. Using microsatellite data for 1106 koalas, we show that, at the individual resolution, foliage projective cover (FPC) facilitates high gene flow (i.e. low resistance) until it falls below approximately 30%. Out of six additional land-cover variables, only highways and freeways further explained genetic distance after accounting for the effect of FPC. At the LGA resolution, there was significant variation in isolation-by-resistance (IBR) relationships in terms of their slopes and intercepts. This was predominantly explained by the average resistance distance among LGAs, with a weaker effect of historical forest cover. Rates of recent landscape change did not further explain variation in IBR relationships among LGAs. By using a novel multilevel model, we disentangle the effect of landscape resistance on gene flow at the fine resolution (i.e. among individuals) from effects occurring at coarser resolutions (i.e. among LGAs). This has important implications for our ability to identify appropriate scale-dependent management actions. © 2013 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. Mapping behavioral landscapes for animal movement: a finite mixture modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tracey, Jeff A.; Zhu, Jun; Boydston, Erin E.; Lyren, Lisa M.; Fisher, Robert N.; Crooks, Kevin R.

    2013-01-01

    Because of its role in many ecological processes, movement of animals in response to landscape features is an important subject in ecology and conservation biology. In this paper, we develop models of animal movement in relation to objects or fields in a landscape. We take a finite mixture modeling approach in which the component densities are conceptually related to different choices for movement in response to a landscape feature, and the mixing proportions are related to the probability of selecting each response as a function of one or more covariates. We combine particle swarm optimization and an Expectation-Maximization (EM) algorithm to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of the model parameters. We use this approach to analyze data for movement of three bobcats in relation to urban areas in southern California, USA. A behavioral interpretation of the models revealed similarities and differences in bobcat movement response to urbanization. All three bobcats avoided urbanization by moving either parallel to urban boundaries or toward less urban areas as the proportion of urban land cover in the surrounding area increased. However, one bobcat, a male with a dispersal-like large-scale movement pattern, avoided urbanization at lower densities and responded strictly by moving parallel to the urban edge. The other two bobcats, which were both residents and occupied similar geographic areas, avoided urban areas using a combination of movements parallel to the urban edge and movement toward areas of less urbanization. However, the resident female appeared to exhibit greater repulsion at lower levels of urbanization than the resident male, consistent with empirical observations of bobcats in southern California. Using the parameterized finite mixture models, we mapped behavioral states to geographic space, creating a representation of a behavioral landscape. This approach can provide guidance for conservation planning based on analysis of animal movement data using

  4. Modeling energy fluxes in heterogeneous landscapes employing a mosaic approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klein, Christian; Thieme, Christoph; Priesack, Eckart

    2015-04-01

    Recent studies show that uncertainties in regional and global climate and weather simulations are partly due to inadequate descriptions of the energy flux exchanges between the land surface and the atmosphere. One major shortcoming is the limitation of the grid-cell resolution, which is recommended to be about at least 3x3 km² in most models due to limitations in the model physics. To represent each individual grid cell most models select one dominant soil type and one dominant land use type. This resolution, however, is often too coarse in regions where the spatial diversity of soil and land use types are high, e.g. in Central Europe. An elegant method to avoid the shortcoming of grid cell resolution is the so called mosaic approach. This approach is part of the recently developed ecosystem model framework Expert-N 5.0. The aim of this study was to analyze the impact of the characteristics of two managed fields, planted with winter wheat and potato, on the near surface soil moistures and on the near surface energy flux exchanges of the soil-plant-atmosphere interface. The simulated energy fluxes were compared with eddy flux tower measurements between the respective fields at the research farm Scheyern, North-West of Munich, Germany. To perform these simulations, we coupled the ecosystem model Expert-N 5.0 to an analytical footprint model. The coupled model system has the ability to calculate the mixing ratio of the surface energy fluxes at a given point within one grid cell (in this case at the flux tower between the two fields). This approach accounts for the differences of the two soil types, of land use managements, and of canopy properties due to footprint size dynamics. Our preliminary simulation results show that a mosaic approach can improve modeling and analyzing energy fluxes when the land surface is heterogeneous. In this case our applied method is a promising approach to extend weather and climate models on the regional and on the global scale.

  5. Keystone Species, Forest and Landscape: A Model to Select Protected Areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lins, Daniela Barbosa da Silva; Gardon, Fernando Ravanini; Meyer, João Frederico da Costa Azevedo; Santos, Rozely Ferreira Dos

    2017-06-01

    The selection of forest fragments for conservation is usually based on spatial parameters as forest size and canopy integrity. This strategy assumes that chosen fragments present high conservation status, ensuring biodiversity and ecological functions. We argue that a well-preserved forest fragment that remains connected by the landscape structure, does not necessarily hold attributes that ensure the presence of keystone species. We also discuss that the presence of keystone species does not always mean that it has the best conditions for its occurrence and maintenance. We developed a model to select areas in forest landscapes to be prioritized for protection based on suitability curves that unify and compare spatial indicators of three categories: forest fragment quality, landscape quality, and environmental conditions for the occurrence of a keystone species. We use a case study to compare different suitability degrees for Euterpe edulis presence, considered an important functional element in Atlantic Forest (São Paulo, Brazil) landscapes and a forest resource for local people. The results show that the identification of medium or advanced stage fragments as singular indicator of forest quality does not guarantee the existence or maintenance of this keystone species. Even in some well-preserved forest fragments, connected to others and with palm presence, the reverse J-shaped distribution of the population size structure is not sustained and these forests continue to be threatened due to human disturbances.

  6. Keystone Species, Forest and Landscape: A Model to Select Protected Areas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lins, Daniela Barbosa da Silva; Gardon, Fernando Ravanini; Meyer, João Frederico da Costa Azevedo; Santos, Rozely Ferreira dos

    2017-06-01

    The selection of forest fragments for conservation is usually based on spatial parameters as forest size and canopy integrity. This strategy assumes that chosen fragments present high conservation status, ensuring biodiversity and ecological functions. We argue that a well-preserved forest fragment that remains connected by the landscape structure, does not necessarily hold attributes that ensure the presence of keystone species. We also discuss that the presence of keystone species does not always mean that it has the best conditions for its occurrence and maintenance. We developed a model to select areas in forest landscapes to be prioritized for protection based on suitability curves that unify and compare spatial indicators of three categories: forest fragment quality, landscape quality, and environmental conditions for the occurrence of a keystone species. We use a case study to compare different suitability degrees for Euterpe edulis presence, considered an important functional element in Atlantic Forest (São Paulo, Brazil) landscapes and a forest resource for local people. The results show that the identification of medium or advanced stage fragments as singular indicator of forest quality does not guarantee the existence or maintenance of this keystone species. Even in some well-preserved forest fragments, connected to others and with palm presence, the reverse J-shaped distribution of the population size structure is not sustained and these forests continue to be threatened due to human disturbances.

  7. The expanding epigenetic landscape of non-model organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bonasio, Roberto

    2015-01-01

    Epigenetics studies the emergence of different phenotypes from a single genotype. Although these processes are essential to cellular differentiation and transcriptional memory, they are also widely used in all branches of the tree of life by organisms that require plastic but stable adaptation to their physical and social environment. Because of the inherent flexibility of epigenetic regulation, a variety of biological phenomena can be traced back to evolutionary adaptations of few conserved molecular pathways that converge on chromatin. For these reasons chromatin biology and epigenetic research have a rich history of chasing discoveries in a variety of model organisms, including yeast, flies, plants and humans. Many more fascinating examples of epigenetic plasticity lie outside the realm of model organisms and have so far been only sporadically investigated at a molecular level; however, recent progress on sequencing technology and genome editing tools have begun to blur the lines between model and non-model organisms, opening numerous new avenues for investigation. Here, I review examples of epigenetic phenomena in non-model organisms that have emerged as potential experimental systems, including social insects, fish and flatworms, and are becoming accessible to molecular approaches. © 2015. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  8. Monitoring carnivore populations at the landscape scale: occupancy modelling of tigers from sign surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karanth, Kota Ullas; Gopalaswamy, Arjun M.; Kumar, Narayanarao Samba; Vaidyanathan, Srinivas; Nichols, James D.; MacKenzie, Darryl I.

    2011-01-01

    1. Assessing spatial distributions of threatened large carnivores at landscape scales poses formidable challenges because of their rarity and elusiveness. As a consequence of logistical constraints, investigators typically rely on sign surveys. Most survey methods, however, do not explicitly address the central problem of imperfect detections of animal signs in the field, leading to underestimates of true habitat occupancy and distribution. 2. We assessed habitat occupancy for a tiger Panthera tigris metapopulation across a c. 38 000-km2 landscape in India, employing a spatially replicated survey to explicitly address imperfect detections. Ecological predictions about tiger presence were confronted with sign detection data generated from occupancy sampling of 205 sites, each of 188 km2. 3. A recent occupancy model that considers Markovian dependency among sign detections on spatial replicates performed better than the standard occupancy model (ΔAIC = 184·9). A formulation of this model that fitted the data best showed that density of ungulate prey and levels of human disturbance were key determinants of local tiger presence. Model averaging resulted in a replicate-level detection probability [inline image] = 0·17 (0·17) for signs and a tiger habitat occupancy estimate of [inline image] = 0·665 (0·0857) or 14 076 (1814) km2 of potential habitat of 21 167 km2. In contrast, a traditional presence-versus-absence approach underestimated occupancy by 47%. Maps of probabilities of local site occupancy clearly identified tiger source populations at higher densities and matched observed tiger density variations, suggesting their potential utility for population assessments at landscape scales. 4. Synthesis and applications. Landscape-scale sign surveys can efficiently assess large carnivore spatial distributions and elucidate the factors governing their local presence, provided ecological and observation processes are both explicitly modelled. Occupancy

  9. Application of SWAT99.2 to sensitivity analysis of water balance components in unique plots in a hilly region

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun-feng Dai

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Although many sensitivity analyses using the soil and water assessment tool (SWAT in a complex watershed have been conducted, little attention has been paid to the application potential of the model in unique plots. In addition, sensitivity analysis of percolation and evapotranspiration with SWAT has seldom been undertaken. In this study, SWAT99.2 was calibrated to simulate water balance components for unique plots in Southern China from 2000 to 2001, which included surface runoff, percolation, and evapotranspiration. Twenty-one parameters classified into four categories, including meteorological conditions, topographical characteristics, soil properties, and vegetation attributes, were used for sensitivity analysis through one-at-a-time (OAT sampling to identify the factor that contributed most to the variance in water balance components. The results were shown to be different for different plots, with parameter sensitivity indices and ranks varying for different water balance components. Water balance components in the broad-leaved forest and natural grass plots were most sensitive to meteorological conditions, less sensitive to vegetation attributes and soil properties, and least sensitive to topographical characteristics. Compared to those in the natural grass plot, water balance components in the broad-leaved forest plot demonstrated higher sensitivity to the maximum stomatal conductance (GSI and maximum leaf area index (BLAI.

  10. Modelling the Long-term Periglacial Imprint on Mountain Landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Jane Lund; Egholm, David Lundbek; Knudsen, Mads Faurschou

    Studies of periglacial processes usually focus on small-scale, isolated phenomena, leaving less explored questions of how such processes shape vast areas of Earth’s surface. Here we use numerical surface process modelling to better understand how periglacial processes drive large-scale, long-term...

  11. Automatic 3D Modeling of the Urban Landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esteban, I.; Dijk, J.; Groen, F.A.

    2010-01-01

    In this paper we present a fully automatic system for building 3D models of urban areas at the street level. We propose a novel approach for the accurate estimation of the scale consistent camera pose given two previous images. We employ a new method for global optimization and use a novel sampling

  12. Representing climate, disturbance, and vegetation interactions in landscape models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Robert E. Keane; Donald McKenzie; Donald A. Falk; Erica A.H. Smithwick; Carol Miller; Lara-Karena B. Kellogg

    2015-01-01

    The prospect of rapidly changing climates over the next century calls for methods to predict their effects on myriad, interactive ecosystem processes. Spatially explicit models that simulate ecosystem dynamics at fine (plant, stand) to coarse (regional, global) scales are indispensable tools for meeting this challenge under a variety of possible futures. A special...

  13. Modeling soil erosion and transport on forest landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge Sun; Steven G McNulty

    1998-01-01

    Century-long studies on the impacts of forest management in North America suggest sediment can cause major reduction on stream water quality. Soil erosion patterns in forest watersheds are patchy and heterogeneous. Therefore, patterns of soil erosion are difficult to model and predict. The objective of this study is to develop a user friendly management tool for land...

  14. Scenic beauty estimation model: predicting perceived beauty of forest landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Terry C. Daniel; Herbert Schroeder

    1979-01-01

    An important activity in any land-use planning process is prediction of the consequences of alternative management approaches. Alternative plans must be com-pared in terms of their respective costs (economic and environmental) and benefits (in market and non-market values) if rational choice among them is to be made. The purpose of this paper is to describe a model for...

  15. Large scale semantic 3D modeling of the urban landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esteban Lopez, I.

    2012-01-01

    Modeling and understanding large urban areas is becoming an important topic in a world were everything is being digitized. A semantic and accurate 3D representation of a city can be used in many applications such as event and security planning and management, assisted navigation, autonomous

  16. Neutral model analysis of landscape patterns from mathematical morphology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kurt H. Riitters; Peter Vogt; Pierre Soille; Jacek Kozak; Christine Estreguil

    2007-01-01

    Mathematical morphology encompasses methods for characterizing land-cover patterns in ecological research and biodiversity assessments. This paper reports a neutral model analysis of patterns in the absence of a structuring ecological process, to help set standards for comparing and interpreting patterns identified by mathematical morphology on real land-cover maps. We...

  17. Modeling landscape-scale pathogen spillover between domesticated and wild hosts: Asian soybean rust and kudzu.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabiszewski, Anna M; Umbanhowar, James; Mitchell, Charles E

    2010-03-01

    Many emerging pathogens infect both domesticated and wild host species, creating the potential for pathogen transmission between domesticated and wild populations. This common situation raises the question of whether managing negative impacts of disease on a focal host population (whether domesticated, endangered, or pest) requires management of only the domesticated host, only the wild host, or both. To evaluate the roles of domesticated and wild hosts in the dynamics of shared pathogens, we developed a spatially implicit model of a pathogen transmitted by airborne spores between two host species restricted to two different landscape patch types. As well as exploring the general dynamics and implications of the model, we fully parameterized our model for Asian soybean rust, a multihost infectious disease that emerged in the United States in 2004. The rust fungus Phakopsora pachyrhizi infects many legume species, including soybeans (Glycine max) and the nonnative invasive species kudzu (Pueraria montana var. lobata). Our model predicts that epidemics are driven by the host species that is more abundant in the landscape. In managed landscapes, this will generally be the domesticated host. However, many pathogens overwinter on a wild host, which acts as the source of initial inoculum at the start of the growing season. Our model predicts that very low local densities of infected wild hosts, surviving in landscape patches separate from the domesticated host, are sufficient to initiate epidemics in the domesticated host, such that managing epidemics by reducing wild host local density may not be feasible. In contrast, managing to reduce pathogen infection of a domesticated host can reduce disease impacts on wild host populations.

  18. OpenMP-accelerated SWAT simulation using Intel C and FORTRAN compilers: Development and benchmark

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ki, Seo Jin; Sugimura, Tak; Kim, Albert S.

    2015-02-01

    We developed a practical method to accelerate execution of Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) using open (free) computational resources. The SWAT source code (rev 622) was recompiled using a non-commercial Intel FORTRAN compiler in Ubuntu 12.04 LTS Linux platform, and newly named iOMP-SWAT in this study. GNU utilities of make, gprof, and diff were used to develop the iOMP-SWAT package, profile memory usage, and check identicalness of parallel and serial simulations. Among 302 SWAT subroutines, the slowest routines were identified using GNU gprof, and later modified using Open Multiple Processing (OpenMP) library in an 8-core shared memory system. In addition, a C wrapping function was used to rapidly set large arrays to zero by cross compiling with the original SWAT FORTRAN package. A universal speedup ratio of 2.3 was achieved using input data sets of a large number of hydrological response units. As we specifically focus on acceleration of a single SWAT run, the use of iOMP-SWAT for parameter calibrations will significantly improve the performance of SWAT optimization.

  19. Sequence2Vec: A novel embedding approach for modeling transcription factor binding affinity landscape

    KAUST Repository

    Dai, Hanjun

    2017-07-26

    Motivation: An accurate characterization of transcription factor (TF)-DNA affinity landscape is crucial to a quantitative understanding of the molecular mechanisms underpinning endogenous gene regulation. While recent advances in biotechnology have brought the opportunity for building binding affinity prediction methods, the accurate characterization of TF-DNA binding affinity landscape still remains a challenging problem. Results: Here we propose a novel sequence embedding approach for modeling the transcription factor binding affinity landscape. Our method represents DNA binding sequences as a hidden Markov model (HMM) which captures both position specific information and long-range dependency in the sequence. A cornerstone of our method is a novel message passing-like embedding algorithm, called Sequence2Vec, which maps these HMMs into a common nonlinear feature space and uses these embedded features to build a predictive model. Our method is a novel combination of the strength of probabilistic graphical models, feature space embedding and deep learning. We conducted comprehensive experiments on over 90 large-scale TF-DNA data sets which were measured by different high-throughput experimental technologies. Sequence2Vec outperforms alternative machine learning methods as well as the state-of-the-art binding affinity prediction methods.

  20. Landscape effects on diets of two canids in Northwestern Texas: A multinomial modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemons, P.R.; Sedinger, J.S.; Herzog, M.P.; Gipson, P.S.; Gilliland, R.L.

    2010-01-01

    Analyses of feces, stomach contents, and regurgitated pellets are common techniques for assessing diets of vertebrates and typically contain more than 1 food item per sampling unit. When analyzed, these individual food items have traditionally been treated as independent, which represents pseudoreplication. When food types are recorded as present or absent, these samples can be treated as multinomial vectors of food items, with each vector representing 1 realization of a possible diet. We suggest such data have a similar structure to capture histories for closed-capture, capturemarkrecapture data. To assess the effects of landscapes and presence of a potential competitor, we used closed-capture models implemented in program MARK into analyze diet data generated from feces of swift foxes (Vulpes velox) and coyotes (Canis latrans) in northwestern Texas. The best models of diet contained season and location for both swift foxes and coyotes, but year accounted for less variation, suggesting that landscape type is an important predictor of diets of both species. Models containing the effect of coyote reduction were not competitive (??QAICc 53.6685), consistent with the hypothesis that presence of coyotes did not influence diet of swift foxes. Our findings suggest that landscape type may have important influences on diets of both species. We believe that multinomial models represent an effective approach to assess hypotheses when diet studies have a data structure similar to ours. ?? 2010 American Society of Mammalogists.

  1. An energy landscape model for glass-forming liquids in three dimensions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, Ulf Rørbæk; Hecksher, Tina; Dyre, Jeppe

    2006-01-01

    We present a three-dimensional lattice-gas model with trivial thermodynamics, but non-trivial dynamics. The model is characterized by each particle having its own random energy landscape. The equilibrium dynamics of the model were investigated by continuous time Monte Carlo simulations at two...... different densities at several temperatures. At high densities and low temperatures the model captures the important characteristics of viscous liquid dynamics. We thus observe non-exponential relaxation in the self part of the density auto-correlation function, and fragility plots of the self......-diffusion constant and relaxation times show non-Arrhenius behavior....

  2. Spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequence data faithfully describe HIV fitness landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekhar, Karthik; Ruberman, Claire F; Ferguson, Andrew L; Barton, John P; Kardar, Mehran; Chakraborty, Arup K

    2013-12-01

    Mutational escape from vaccine-induced immune responses has thwarted the development of a successful vaccine against AIDS, whose causative agent is HIV, a highly mutable virus. Knowing the virus' fitness as a function of its proteomic sequence can enable rational design of potent vaccines, as this information can focus vaccine-induced immune responses to target mutational vulnerabilities of the virus. Spin models have been proposed as a means to infer intrinsic fitness landscapes of HIV proteins from patient-derived viral protein sequences. These sequences are the product of nonequilibrium viral evolution driven by patient-specific immune responses and are subject to phylogenetic constraints. How can such sequence data allow inference of intrinsic fitness landscapes? We combined computer simulations and variational theory á la Feynman to show that, in most circumstances, spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequences reflect the correct rank order of the fitness of mutant viral strains. Our findings are relevant for diverse viruses.

  3. Inference of Calmodulin's Ca2+-Dependent Free Energy Landscapes via Gaussian Mixture Model Validation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Westerlund, Annie M; Harpole, Tyler J; Blau, Christian; Delemotte, Lucie

    2018-01-09

    A free energy landscape estimation method based on the well-known Gaussian mixture model (GMM) is used to compare the efficiencies of thermally enhanced sampling methods with respect to regular molecular dynamics. The simulations are carried out on two binding states of calmodulin, and the free energy estimation method is compared with other estimators using a toy model. We show that GMM with cross-validation provides a robust estimate that is not subject to overfitting. The continuous nature of Gaussians provides better estimates on sparse data than canonical histogramming. We find that diffusion properties determine the sampling method effectiveness, such that diffusion-dominated apo calmodulin is most efficiently sampled by regular molecular dynamics, while holo calmodulin, with its rugged free energy landscape, is better sampled by enhanced sampling methods.

  4. Spin models inferred from patient data faithfully describe HIV fitness landscapes and enable rational vaccine design

    CERN Document Server

    Shekhar, Karthik; Ferguson, Andrew L; Barton, John P; Kardar, Mehran; Chakraborty, Arup K

    2013-01-01

    Mutational escape from vaccine induced immune responses has thwarted the development of a successful vaccine against AIDS, whose causative agent is HIV, a highly mutable virus. Knowing the virus' fitness as a function of its proteomic sequence can enable rational design of potent vaccines, as this information can focus vaccine induced immune responses to target mutational vulnerabilities of the virus. Spin models have been proposed as a means to infer intrinsic fitness landscapes of HIV proteins from patient-derived viral protein sequences. These sequences are the product of non-equilibrium viral evolution driven by patient-specific immune responses, and are subject to phylogenetic constraints. How can such sequence data allow inference of intrinsic fitness landscapes? We combined computer simulations and variational theory \\'{a} la Feynman to show that, in most circumstances, spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequences reflect the correct rank order of the fitness of mutant viral strains. Our f...

  5. Spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequence data faithfully describe HIV fitness landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shekhar, Karthik; Ruberman, Claire F.; Ferguson, Andrew L.; Barton, John P.; Kardar, Mehran; Chakraborty, Arup K.

    2013-12-01

    Mutational escape from vaccine-induced immune responses has thwarted the development of a successful vaccine against AIDS, whose causative agent is HIV, a highly mutable virus. Knowing the virus' fitness as a function of its proteomic sequence can enable rational design of potent vaccines, as this information can focus vaccine-induced immune responses to target mutational vulnerabilities of the virus. Spin models have been proposed as a means to infer intrinsic fitness landscapes of HIV proteins from patient-derived viral protein sequences. These sequences are the product of nonequilibrium viral evolution driven by patient-specific immune responses and are subject to phylogenetic constraints. How can such sequence data allow inference of intrinsic fitness landscapes? We combined computer simulations and variational theory á la Feynman to show that, in most circumstances, spin models inferred from patient-derived viral sequences reflect the correct rank order of the fitness of mutant viral strains. Our findings are relevant for diverse viruses.

  6. A soluble model of evolution and extinction dynamics in a rugged fitness landscape

    OpenAIRE

    Sibani, Paolo

    1997-01-01

    We consider a continuum version of a previously introduced and numerically studied model of macroevolution (PRL 75, 2055, (1995)) in which agents evolve by an optimization process in a rugged fitness landscape and die due to their competitive interactions. We first formulate dynamical equations for the fitness distribution and the survival probability. Secondly we analytically derive the $t^{-2}$ law which characterizes the life time distribution of biological genera. Thirdly we discuss other...

  7. Entrepreneurial Universities: Emerging Models in the New Social and Economic Landscape

    OpenAIRE

    Guerrero, Maribel; Urbano, David; Alain, Fayolle; Klofsten, Magnus; Mian, Sarfraz

    2016-01-01

    The purpose of this paper and the special issue is to improve our understanding of the theoretical, empirical, managerial and political implications of emerging models of entrepreneurial universities in the new social and economic landscape. We accomplish this objective by examining the role of entrepreneurial universities as drivers of innovation and entrepreneurship activities. Our analysis starts with an overview by outlining an overarching framework. This allows us to highlight the contri...

  8. CARBON BALANCE OF FOREST ECOSYSTEMS UNDER GLOBAL WARMING: LANDSCAPE-ECOLOGICAL PREDICTIVE MODELING

    OpenAIRE

    Erland Kolomyts; Gennady Rozenberg; Larisa Sharaya

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents the results of application of landscape-ecological methods for evaluation of biotic regulation of the carbon cycle in forest ecosystems. Methods for constructing analytical and cartographic empirical-statistical models for identification of forest associations and zonal/regional types of forest formations capable of stabilizing the continental biosphere under changing climate are described. Possible biotic regulation of the carbon cycle under known scenarios of future gree...

  9. Agents, Individuals, and Networks: Modeling Methods to Inform Natural Resource Management in Regional Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lael Parrott

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Landscapes are complex systems. Landscape dynamics are the result of multiple interacting biophysical and socioeconomic processes that are linked across a broad range of spatial, temporal, and organizational scales. Understanding and describing landscape dynamics poses enormous challenges and demands the use of new multiscale approaches to modeling. In this synthesis article, we present three regional systems - i.e., a forest system, a marine system, and an agricultural system - and describe how hybrid, bottom-up modeling of these systems can be used to represent linkages across scales and between subsystems. Through the use of these three examples, we describe how modeling can be used to simulate emergent system responses to different conservation policy and management scenarios from the bottom up, thereby increasing our understanding of important drivers and feedback loops within a landscape. The first case study involves the use of an individual-based modeling approach to simulate the effects of forest harvesting on the movement patterns of large mammals in Canada's boreal forest and the resulting emergent population dynamics. This model is being used to inform forest harvesting and management guidelines. The second case study combines individual and agent-based approaches to simulate the dynamics of individual boats and whales in a marine park. This model is being used to inform decision-makers on how to mitigate the impacts of maritime traffic on whales in the Saint Lawrence Estuary in eastern Canada. The third example is a case study of biodiversity conservation efforts on the Eyre Peninsula, South Australia. In this example, the social-ecological system is represented as a complex network of interacting components. Methods of network analysis can be used to explore the emergent responses of the system to changes in the network structure or configuration, thus informing managers about the resilience of the system. These three examples

  10. Solar radiation as a global driver of hillslope asymmetry: Insights from an ecogeomorphic landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yetemen, Omer; Istanbulluoglu, Erkan; Duvall, Alison R.

    2015-12-01

    Observations at the field, catchment, and continental scales across a range of arid and semiarid climates and latitudes reveal aspect-controlled patterns in soil properties, vegetation types, ecohydrologic fluxes, and hillslope morphology. Although the global distribution of solar radiation on earth's surface and its implications on vegetation dynamics are well documented, we know little about how variation of solar radiation across latitudes influence landscape evolution and resulting geomorphic difference. Here, we used a landscape evolution model that couples the continuity equations for water, sediment, and aboveground vegetation biomass at each model element in order to explore the controls of latitude and mean annual precipitation (MAP) on the development of hillslope asymmetry (HA). In our model, asymmetric hillslopes emerged from the competition between soil creep and vegetation-modulated fluvial transport, driven by spatial distribution of solar radiation. Latitude was a primary driver of HA because of its effects on the global distribution of solar radiation. In the Northern Hemisphere, north-facing slopes (NFS), which support more vegetation cover and have lower transport efficiency, get steeper toward the North Pole while south-facing slopes (SFS) get gentler. In the Southern Hemisphere, the patterns are reversed and SFS get steeper toward the South Pole. For any given latitude, MAP is found to have minor control on HA. Our results underscore the potential influence of solar radiation as a global control on the development of asymmetric hillslopes in fluvial landscapes.

  11. NetLand: quantitative modeling and visualization of Waddington's epigenetic landscape using probabilistic potential.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, Jing; Lin, Feng; Zhang, Xiaomeng; Tanavde, Vivek; Zheng, Jie

    2017-05-15

    Waddington's epigenetic landscape is a powerful metaphor for cellular dynamics driven by gene regulatory networks (GRNs). Its quantitative modeling and visualization, however, remains a challenge, especially when there are more than two genes in the network. A software tool for Waddington's landscape has not been available in the literature. We present NetLand, an open-source software tool for modeling and simulating the kinetic dynamics of GRNs, and visualizing the corresponding Waddington's epigenetic landscape in three dimensions without restriction on the number of genes in a GRN. With an interactive and graphical user interface, NetLand can facilitate the knowledge discovery and experimental design in the study of cell fate regulation (e.g. stem cell differentiation and reprogramming). NetLand can run under operating systems including Windows, Linux and OS X. The executive files and source code of NetLand as well as a user manual, example models etc. can be downloaded from http://netland-ntu.github.io/NetLand/ . zhengjie@ntu.edu.sg. Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

  12. Modeling the spatiotemporal variability in subsurface thermal regimes across a low-relief polygonal tundra landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Kumar

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Vast carbon stocks stored in permafrost soils of Arctic tundra are under risk of release to the atmosphere under warming climate scenarios. Ice-wedge polygons in the low-gradient polygonal tundra create a complex mosaic of microtopographic features. This microtopography plays a critical role in regulating the fine-scale variability in thermal and hydrological regimes in the polygonal tundra landscape underlain by continuous permafrost. Modeling of thermal regimes of this sensitive ecosystem is essential for understanding the landscape behavior under the current as well as changing climate. We present here an end-to-end effort for high-resolution numerical modeling of thermal hydrology at real-world field sites, utilizing the best available data to characterize and parameterize the models. We develop approaches to model the thermal hydrology of polygonal tundra and apply them at four study sites near Barrow, Alaska, spanning across low to transitional to high-centered polygons, representing a broad polygonal tundra landscape. A multiphase subsurface thermal hydrology model (PFLOTRAN was developed and applied to study the thermal regimes at four sites. Using a high-resolution lidar digital elevation model (DEM, microtopographic features of the landscape were characterized and represented in the high-resolution model mesh. The best available soil data from field observations and literature were utilized to represent the complex heterogeneous subsurface in the numerical model. Simulation results demonstrate the ability of the developed modeling approach to capture – without recourse to model calibration – several aspects of the complex thermal regimes across the sites, and provide insights into the critical role of polygonal tundra microtopography in regulating the thermal dynamics of the carbon-rich permafrost soils. Areas of significant disagreement between model results and observations highlight the importance of field-based observations of

  13. Spatially Distributed Assimilation of Remotely Sensed Leaf Area Index and Potential Evapotranspiration for Hydrologic Modeling in Wetland Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Evapotranspiration (ET), a highly dynamic flux in wetland landscapes, regulates the accuracy of surface/sub-surface runoff simulation in a hydrologic model. However, considerable uncertainty in simulating ET-related processes remains, including our limited ability to incorporate ...

  14. Dissolution on Saturn's Moon Titan: A 3D Karst Landscape Evolution Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cornet, Thomas; Fleurant, Cyril; Seignovert, Benoît; Cordier, Daniel; Bourgeois, Olivier; Le Mouélic, Stéphane; Rodriguez, Sebastien; Lucas, Antoine

    2017-04-01

    Titan is an Earth-like world possessing a nitrogen-rich atmosphere that covers a surface with signs of lacustrine (lakes, seas, depressions), fluvial (channels, valleys) and aeolian (dunes) activity [1]. The chemistry implied in the geological processes is, however, strikingly different from that on Earth. Titan's extremely cold environment (T -180°C) allows water to exist only under the form of icy "bedrock". The presence of methane as the second major constituent in the atmosphere, as well as an active nitrogen-methane photochemistry, allows methane and ethane to drive a hydrocarbon cycle similar to the terrestrial hydrological cycle. A plethora of organic solids, more or less soluble in liquid hydrocarbons, is also produced in the atmosphere and can lead, by atmospheric sedimentation over geological timescales, to formation of some kind of organic geological sedimentary layer. Based on comparisons between Titan's landscapes seen in the Cassini spacecraft data and terrestrial analogues, karstic-like dissolution and evaporitic crystallization have been suggested in various instances to take part in the landscape development on Titan. Dissolution has been invoked, for instance, for the development of the so-called "labyrinthic terrain", located at high latitudes and resembling terrestrial cockpit or polygonal karst terrain. In this work, we aim at testing this hypothesis by comparing the natural landscapes visible in the Cassini/RADAR images of Titan's surface, with those inferred from the use of a 3D Landscape Evolution Model (LEM) based on the Channel-Hillslope Integrated Landscape Development (CHILD) [2] modified to include karstic dissolution as the major geological process [3]. Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) are generated from an initial quasi-planar surface for a set of dissolution rates, diffusion coefficients (solute transport), and sink densities of the mesh. The landscape evolves over millions of years. Synthetic SAR images are generated from these DEMs

  15. Urban Landscape Characterization Using Remote Sensing Data For Input into Air Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Crosson, William; Khan, Maudood

    2005-01-01

    The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models that are used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, particularly for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of air quality models to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well these models predict ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to meteorological and air quality models focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data have been found to better characterize low density/suburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for future scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission. This allows the State Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these transportation plans will affect future air quality.

  16. A Behavioral Model of Landscape Change in the Amazon Basin: The Colonist Case

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, R. A.; Drzyzga, S. A.; Li, Y. L.; Wi, J. G.; Caldas, M.; Arima, E.; Vergara, D.

    2004-01-01

    This paper presents the prototype of a predictive model capable of describing both magnitudes of deforestation and its spatial articulation into patterns of forest fragmentation. In a departure from other landscape models, it establishes an explicit behavioral foundation for algorithm development, predicated on notions of the peasant economy and on household production theory. It takes a 'bottom-up' approach, generating the process of land-cover change occurring at lot level together with the geography of a transportation system to describe regional landscape change. In other words, it translates the decentralized decisions of individual households into a collective, spatial impact. In so doing, the model unites the richness of survey research on farm households with the analytical rigor of spatial analysis enabled by geographic information systems (GIs). The paper describes earlier efforts at spatial modeling, provides a critique of the so-called spatially explicit model, and elaborates a behavioral foundation by considering farm practices of colonists in the Amazon basin. It then uses, insight from the behavioral statement to motivate a GIs-based model architecture. The model is implemented for a long-standing colonization frontier in the eastern sector of the basin, along the Trans-Amazon Highway in the State of Para, Brazil. Results are subjected to both sensitivity analysis and error assessment, and suggestions are made about how the model could be improved.

  17. Landscape Based Modeling of Nonpoint Source Nitrogen Loading in the Neuse River Basin, North Carolina

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garten, C.T.

    2001-01-11

    The objective of this research was to arrive at a quantitative and qualitative assessment of nonpoint sources of potential excess N under different land use/land cover (LULC) categories in the Neuse River Basin on a seasonal time scale. This assessment is being supplied to EPA's Landscape Characterization Branch, National Exposure Research Laboratory, in Research Triangle Park, NC, for inclusion in a hydrologic model to predict seasonal fluxes of N from the terrestrial landscape to surface receiving waters and groundwater in the Neuse River Basin. The analysis was performed in the following five steps: (1) development of a conceptual model to predict potential excess N on land, (2) a literature review to parameterize N fluxes under LULC categories found in the Neuse River Basin, (3) acquisition of high resolution (15-m pixel) LULC data from EPA's Landscape Characterization Branch, National Exposure Research Laboratory, in Research Triangle Park, NC, (4) acquisition of a soil N inventory map for the Neuse River Basin, (5) calculations of potential excess N on a seasonal basis for the entire Neuse River Basin.

  18. Activity and property landscape modeling is at the interface of chemoinformatics and medicinal chemistry.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina-Franco, José L; Navarrete-Vázquez, Gabriel; Méndez-Lucio, Oscar

    2015-01-01

    Property landscape modeling (PLM) methods are at the interface of experimental sciences and computational chemistry. PLM are becoming a common strategy to describe systematically structure-property relationships of datasets. Thus far, PLM have been used mainly in medicinal chemistry and drug discovery. Herein, we survey advances on key topics on PLM with emphasis on questions often raised regarding the outcomes of the property landscape studies. We also emphasize on concepts of PLM that are being extended to other experimental areas beyond drug discovery. Topics discussed in this paper include applications of PLM to further characterize protein-ligand interactions, the utility of PLM as a quantitative and descriptive approach, and the statistical validation of property cliffs.

  19. Modeling the distribution of migratory bird stopovers to inform landscape-scale siting of wind development.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amy Pocewicz

    Full Text Available Conservation of migratory birds requires understanding the distribution of and potential threats to their migratory habitats. However, although migratory birds are protected under international treaties, few maps have been available to represent migration at a landscape scale useful to target conservation efforts or inform the siting of wind energy developments that may affect migratory birds. To fill this gap, we developed models that predict where four groups of birds concentrate or stopover during their migration through the state of Wyoming, USA: raptors, wetland, riparian and sparse grassland birds. The models were based on existing literature and expert knowledge concerning bird migration behavior and ecology and validated using expert ratings and known occurrences. There was significant agreement between migratory occurrence data and migration models for all groups except raptors, and all models ranked well with experts. We measured the overlap between the migration concentration models and a predictive model of wind energy development to assess the potential exposure of migratory birds to wind development and illustrate the utility of migratory concentration models for landscape-scale planning. Wind development potential is high across 15% of Wyoming, and 73% of this high potential area intersects important migration concentration areas. From 5.2% to 18.8% of each group's important migration areas was represented within this high wind potential area, with the highest exposures for sparse grassland birds and the lowest for riparian birds. Our approach could be replicated elsewhere to fill critical data gaps and better inform conservation priorities and landscape-scale planning for migratory birds.

  20. Cultural landscapes and behavioral transformations : An agent-based model for the simulation and discussion of alternative landscape futures in East Lesvos, Greece

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zagaria, Cecilia; Schulp, Catharina J E; Kizos, Thanasis; Gounaridis, Dimitris; Verburg, Peter H.

    2017-01-01

    Agricultural intensification and abandonment have been identified as two of the more prominent and polarizing drivers of landscape change in Europe. These transitions may induce deterioration in landscape functioning and character, particularly in cultural landscapes demonstrative of evolving

  1. Landscape fragmentation and pollinator movement within agricultural environments: a modelling framework for exploring foraging and movement ecology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean A. Rands

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available Pollinator decline has been linked to landscape change, through both habitat fragmentation and the loss of habitat suitable for the pollinators to live within. One method for exploring why landscape change should affect pollinator populations is to combine individual-level behavioural ecological techniques with larger-scale landscape ecology. A modelling framework is described that uses spatially-explicit individual-based models to explore the effects of individual behavioural rules within a landscape. The technique described gives a simple method for exploring the effects of the removal of wild corridors, and the creation of wild set-aside fields: interventions that are common to many national agricultural policies. The effects of these manipulations on central-place nesting pollinators are varied, and depend upon the behavioural rules that the pollinators are using to move through the environment. The value of this modelling framework is discussed, and future directions for exploration are identified.

  2. Landscape fragmentation and pollinator movement within agricultural environments: a modelling framework for exploring foraging and movement ecology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rands, Sean A

    2014-01-01

    Pollinator decline has been linked to landscape change, through both habitat fragmentation and the loss of habitat suitable for the pollinators to live within. One method for exploring why landscape change should affect pollinator populations is to combine individual-level behavioural ecological techniques with larger-scale landscape ecology. A modelling framework is described that uses spatially-explicit individual-based models to explore the effects of individual behavioural rules within a landscape. The technique described gives a simple method for exploring the effects of the removal of wild corridors, and the creation of wild set-aside fields: interventions that are common to many national agricultural policies. The effects of these manipulations on central-place nesting pollinators are varied, and depend upon the behavioural rules that the pollinators are using to move through the environment. The value of this modelling framework is discussed, and future directions for exploration are identified.

  3. Landscape agronomy : a new field for addressing agricultural landscape dynamics

    OpenAIRE

    Marraccini, Élisa; Moonen, Anna Camilla; Galli, Mariassunta; Lardon, Sylvie; Rapey, Hélène; Thenail, Claudine; Bonari, Enrico

    2012-01-01

    Landscape dynamics increasingly challenge agronomists to explain how and why agricultural landscapes are designed and managed by farmers. Nevertheless, agronomy is rarely included in the wide range of disciplines involved in landscape research. In this paper, we describe how landscape agronomy can help explain the relationship between farming systems and agricultural landscape dynamics. For this, we propose a conceptual model of agricultural landscape dynamics that illustrates the specific co...

  4. Soluble Model of Evolution and Extinction Dynamics in a Rugged Fitness Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibani, Paolo

    1997-08-01

    We consider a continuum version of a previously introduced and numerically studied model of macroevolution [P. Sibani, M. R. Schimdt, and P. Alstrøm, Phys. Rev. Lett. 75, 2055 (1995)] in which agents evolve by an optimization process in a rugged fitness landscape and die due to their competitive interactions. We first formulate dynamical equations for the fitness distribution and the survival probability. Secondly, we analytically derive the t-2 law which characterizes the lifetime distribution of biological genera. Thirdly, we discuss other dynamical properties of the model as the rate of extinction and conclude with a brief discussion.

  5. Modeling the Effects of Harvest Alternatives on Mitigating Oak Decline in a Central Hardwood Forest Landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen J Wang

    Full Text Available Oak decline is a process induced by complex interactions of predisposing factors, inciting factors, and contributing factors operating at tree, stand, and landscape scales. It has greatly altered species composition and stand structure in affected areas. Thinning, clearcutting, and group selection are widely adopted harvest alternatives for reducing forest vulnerability to oak decline by removing susceptible species and declining trees. However, the long-term, landscape-scale effects of these different harvest alternatives are not well studied because of the limited availability of experimental data. In this study, we applied a forest landscape model in combination with field studies to evaluate the effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline in a Central Hardwood Forest landscape. Results showed that the potential oak decline in high risk sites decreased strongly in the next five decades irrespective of harvest alternatives. This is because oak decline is a natural process and forest succession (e.g., high tree mortality resulting from intense competition would eventually lead to the decrease in oak decline in this area. However, forest harvesting did play a role in mitigating oak decline and the effectiveness varied among the three harvest alternatives. The group selection and clearcutting alternatives were most effective in mitigating oak decline in the short and medium terms, respectively. The long-term effects of the three harvest alternatives on mitigating oak decline became less discernible as the role of succession increased. The thinning alternative had the highest biomass retention over time, followed by the group selection and clearcutting alternatives. The group selection alternative that balanced treatment effects and retaining biomass was the most viable alternative for managing oak decline. Insights from this study may be useful in developing effective and informed forest harvesting plans for managing oak

  6. Landscape structure and management alter the outcome of a pesticide ERA: evaluating impacts of endocrine disruption using the ALMaSS European Brown Hare model

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Topping, Christopher John; Dalby, Lars; Skov, Flemming

    2016-01-01

    , and indeed how to generate such landscapes. This paper evaluates the contribution of landscape and farming components to a model based risk assessment of a fictitious endocrine disruptor on hares. In addition, we present methods and code examples for generation of landscape structures and farming simulation...

  7. Estimating Net Primary Production of Swedish Forest Landscapes by Combining Mechanistic Modeling and Remote Sensing

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tagesson, Håkan Torbern; Smith, Benjamin; Løfgren, Anders

    2009-01-01

    and the Beer-Lambert law. LAI estimates were compared with satellite-extrapolated field estimates of LAI, and the results were generally acceptable. NPP estimates directly from the dynamic vegetation model and estimates obtained by combining the model estimates with remote sensing information were, on average......The aim of this study was to investigate a combination of satellite images of leaf area index (LAI) with processbased vegetation modeling for the accurate assessment of the carbon balances of Swedish forest ecosystems at the scale of a landscape. Monthly climatologic data were used as inputs...... in a dynamic vegetation model, the Lund Potsdam Jena-General Ecosystem Simulator. Model estimates of net primary production (NPP) and the fraction of absorbed photosynthetic active radiation were constrained by combining them with satellite-based LAI images using a general light use efficiency (LUE) model...

  8. Assessing knowledge ambiguity in the creation of a model based on expert knowledge and comparison with the results of a landscape succession model in central Labrador. Chapter 10.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frederik Doyon; Brian Sturtevant; Michael J. Papaik; Andrew Fall; Brian Miranda; Daniel D. Kneeshaw; Christian Messier; Marie-Josee. Fortin; Patrick M.A. James

    2012-01-01

    Sustainable forest management (SFM) recognizes that the spatial and temporal patterns generated at different scales by natural landscape and stand dynamics processes should serve as a guide for managing the forest within its range of natural variability. Landscape simulation modeling is a powerful tool that can help encompass such complexity and support SFM planning....

  9. Modeling larval malaria vector habitat locations using landscape features and cumulative precipitation measures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCann, Robert S; Messina, Joseph P; MacFarlane, David W; Bayoh, M Nabie; Vulule, John M; Gimnig, John E; Walker, Edward D

    2014-06-06

    Predictive models of malaria vector larval habitat locations may provide a basis for understanding the spatial determinants of malaria transmission. We used four landscape variables (topographic wetness index [TWI], soil type, land use-land cover, and distance to stream) and accumulated precipitation to model larval habitat locations in a region of western Kenya through two methods: logistic regression and random forest. Additionally, we used two separate data sets to account for variation in habitat locations across space and over time. Larval habitats were more likely to be present in locations with a lower slope to contributing area ratio (i.e. TWI), closer to streams, with agricultural land use relative to nonagricultural land use, and in friable clay/sandy clay loam soil and firm, silty clay/clay soil relative to friable clay soil. The probability of larval habitat presence increased with increasing accumulated precipitation. The random forest models were more accurate than the logistic regression models, especially when accumulated precipitation was included to account for seasonal differences in precipitation. The most accurate models for the two data sets had area under the curve (AUC) values of 0.864 and 0.871, respectively. TWI, distance to the nearest stream, and precipitation had the greatest mean decrease in Gini impurity criteria in these models. This study demonstrates the usefulness of random forest models for larval malaria vector habitat modeling. TWI and distance to the nearest stream were the two most important landscape variables in these models. Including accumulated precipitation in our models improved the accuracy of larval habitat location predictions by accounting for seasonal variation in the precipitation. Finally, the sampling strategy employed here for model parameterization could serve as a framework for creating predictive larval habitat models to assist in larval control efforts.

  10. The role of momentum transfer during incoherent neutron scattering is explained by the energy landscape model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frauenfelder, Hans; Young, Robert D; Fenimore, Paul W

    2017-05-16

    We recently introduced a model of incoherent quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS) that treats the neutrons as wave packets of finite length and the protein as a random walker in the free energy landscape. We call the model ELM for "energy landscape model." In ELM, the interaction of the wave packet with a proton in a protein provides the dynamic information. During the scattering event, the momentum [Formula: see text] is transferred by the wave packet to the struck proton and its moiety, exerting the force [Formula: see text] The resultant energy [Formula: see text] is stored elastically and returned to the neutron as it exits. The energy is given by [Formula: see text], where [Formula: see text] is the ambient temperature and [Formula: see text] ([Formula: see text] 91 K Å) is a new elastobaric coefficient. Experiments yield the scattering intensity (dynamic structure factor) [Formula: see text] as a function of [Formula: see text] and [Formula: see text] To test our model, we use published data on proteins where only thermal vibrations are active. ELM competes with the currently accepted theory, here called the spatial motion model (SMM), which explains [Formula: see text] by motions in real space. ELM is superior to SMM: It can explain the experimental angular and temperature dependence, whereas SMM cannot do so.

  11. AnnAGNPS Model Application for Nitrogen Loading Assessment for the Future Midwest Landscape Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael A. Jackson

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available The Future Midwest Landscape (FML project is part of the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA’s new Ecosystem Services Research Program, undertaken to examine the variety of ways in which landscapes that include crop lands, conservation areas, wetlands, lakes, and streams affect human well-being. The goal of the FML project is to quantify current and future ecosystem services across the region and to examine changes expected to occur as a result of the growing demand for biofuels. This study is one of several pilots taking place under the umbrella of the FML research project. In this study, the USDA Annualized Agricultural Non-Point Source Pollution (AnnAGNPS model was applied to the East Fork Kaskaskia River watershed (289.3 km2 located in the Kaskaskia River Basin within the Upper Mississippi River Basin in Illinois. The effect of different spatial resolutions on model performance was investigated by comparing the observed runoff with the AnnAGNPS simulated results. Alternative future scenarios such as meeting future biofuel target were also simulated and analyzed. All delineations of the study area (coarser to finer produced satisfactory results in simulating monthly and annual runoff. However, the size of the delineation does impact the simulation results. Finer delineations better represented the actual landscape and captured small critical areas that would be homogenized in coarser delineation. Those small critical areas are important to target to achieve maximum environment benefit. Simulations of alternative future scenarios showed that as corn production increases to meet future biofuel needs, total nitrogen loss increases. For this watershed, total N loss would be more than doubled if converting all corn/soybean rotation (15,871.2 ha to continuous corn comparing with the base year total N loss which is 11.2 kg/ha. Conservation practices are needed to reduce total nitrogen loss from the watershed. This study provides an important

  12. Modeling and Validation across Scales: Parametrizing the effect of the forested landscape

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Dellwik, Ebba; Badger, Merete; Angelou, Nikolas

    When validating the performance of a flow model in forested areas, it is important that the model accurately represents the forest effects. This presentation concerns the use of remote-sensing technology for describing forest effects, and more specifically, how positioning lidar data can...... be transferred into a parametrization of forests in wind models. The presentation covers three scales: the single tree, the forest edges and clearings, and the large-scale forested landscape in which the forest effects are parameterized with a roughness length. Flow modeling results and validation against...... observations are presented along with the different forest presentations for each of the cases. In a new research project called InnoWind, the use of satellite-based alternatives to airborne lidar campaigns are investigated, and examples of satellite products in wind power modeling are discussed....

  13. Integrating continuous stocks and flows into state-and-transition simulation models of landscape change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daniel, Colin J.; Sleeter, Benjamin M.; Frid, Leonardo; Fortin, Marie-Josée

    2017-01-01

    State-and-transition simulation models (STSMs) provide a general framework for forecasting landscape dynamics, including projections of both vegetation and land-use/land-cover (LULC) change. The STSM method divides a landscape into spatially-referenced cells and then simulates the state of each cell forward in time, as a discrete-time stochastic process using a Monte Carlo approach, in response to any number of possible transitions. A current limitation of the STSM method, however, is that all of the state variables must be discrete.Here we present a new approach for extending a STSM, in order to account for continuous state variables, called a state-and-transition simulation model with stocks and flows (STSM-SF). The STSM-SF method allows for any number of continuous stocks to be defined for every spatial cell in the STSM, along with a suite of continuous flows specifying the rates at which stock levels change over time. The change in the level of each stock is then simulated forward in time, for each spatial cell, as a discrete-time stochastic process. The method differs from the traditional systems dynamics approach to stock-flow modelling in that the stocks and flows can be spatially-explicit, and the flows can be expressed as a function of the STSM states and transitions.We demonstrate the STSM-SF method by integrating a spatially-explicit carbon (C) budget model with a STSM of LULC change for the state of Hawai'i, USA. In this example, continuous stocks are pools of terrestrial C, while the flows are the possible fluxes of C between these pools. Importantly, several of these C fluxes are triggered by corresponding LULC transitions in the STSM. Model outputs include changes in the spatial and temporal distribution of C pools and fluxes across the landscape in response to projected future changes in LULC over the next 50 years.The new STSM-SF method allows both discrete and continuous state variables to be integrated into a STSM, including interactions between

  14. Addressing the multi-scale lapsus of landscape : multi-scale landscape process modelling to support sustainable land use : a case study for the Lower Guadalhorce valley South Spain

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoorl, J.M.

    2002-01-01

    "Addressing the Multi-scale Lapsus of Landscape" with the sub-title "Multi-scale landscape process modelling to support sustainable land use: A case study for the Lower Guadalhorce valley South Spain" focuses on the role of

  15. The potential energy landscape in the Lennard-Jones binary mixture model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Sampoli, M [Dipartimento di Energetica and INFM, Universita di Firenze, Via Santa Marta 3, I-5019, Florence (Italy); Benassi, P [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFM, Universita di L' Aquila, Via Vetoio, Coppito, Aquila (Italy); Eramo, R [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFM, Universita di L' Aquila, Via Vetoio, Coppito, Aquila (Italy); Angelani, L [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFM, Universita di Roma ' La Sapienza' , Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, I-00185, Rome (Italy); Ruocco, G [Dipartimento di Fisica and INFM, Universita di Roma ' La Sapienza' , Piazzale Aldo Moro 2, I-00185, Rome (Italy)

    2003-03-26

    The potential energy landscape in the Kob-Andersen Lennard-Jones binary mixture model has been studied carefully from the liquid down to the supercooled regime, from T = 2 down to 0.46. One thousand independent configurations along the time evolution locus have been examined at each temperature investigated. From the starting configuration, we searched for the nearest saddle (or quasi-saddle) and minimum of the potential energy. The vibrational densities of states for the starting and the two derived configurations have been evaluated. Besides the number of negative eigenvalues of the saddles other quantities show some signature of the approach of the dynamical arrest temperature.

  16. Digital surface models and the landscape: interaction between bedrock and glacial geology in the Ullapool area

    OpenAIRE

    Goodenough, K.M.; Krabbendam, M.; T. Bradwell; Finlayson, A; Leslie, A. G.

    2009-01-01

    The front cover image for this volume is a hill-shaded digital surface model (DSM) of the Ullapool area, created using NEXTMap Britain elevation data from Intermap Technologies. This is a classic area for bedrock geology, transected by the Moine Thrust Zone, and in recent years has also been studied in detail for its glacial history. Perhaps equally important, this is one of Scotland’s most iconic landscapes. The geology of the area comprises a number of distinct sequences, each of which has ...

  17. The application of `least-cost' modelling as a functional landscape model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Adriaensen, F.; Chardon, P.; Blust, de G.; Swinnen, E.; Villalba, S.; Gulinck, H.; Matthysen, E.

    2003-01-01

    The growing awareness of the adverse effects of habitat fragmentation on natural systems has resulted in a rapidly increasing number of actions to reduce current fragmentation of natural systems as well as a growing demand for tools to predict and evaluate the effect of changes in the landscape on

  18. Remote Sensing Characterization of the Urban Landscape for Improvement of Air Quality Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quattrochi, Dale A.; Estes, Maurice G., Jr.; Khan, Maudood

    2005-01-01

    The urban landscape is inherently complex and this complexity is not adequately captured in air quality models, particularly the Community Multiscale Air Quality (CMAQ) model that is used to assess whether urban areas are in attainment of EPA air quality standards, primarily for ground level ozone. This inadequacy of the CMAQ model to sufficiently respond to the heterogeneous nature of the urban landscape can impact how well the model predicts ozone pollutant levels over metropolitan areas and ultimately, whether cities exceed EPA ozone air quality standards. We are exploring the utility of high-resolution remote sensing data and urban growth projections as improved inputs to the meteorology component of the CMAQ model focusing on the Atlanta, Georgia metropolitan area as a case study. These growth projections include "business as usual" and "smart growth" scenarios out to 2030. The growth projections illustrate the effects of employing urban heat island mitigation strategies, such as increasing tree canopy and albedo across the Atlanta metro area, in moderating ground-level ozone and air temperature, compared to "business as usual" simulations in which heat island mitigation strategies are not applied. The National Land Cover Dataset at 30m resolution is being used as the land use/land cover input and aggregated to the 4km scale for the MM5 mesoscale meteorological model and the (CMAQ) modeling schemes. Use of these data has been found to better characterize low densityhburban development as compared with USGS 1 km land use/land cover data that have traditionally been used in modeling. Air quality prediction for fiture scenarios to 2030 is being facilitated by land use projections using a spatial growth model. Land use projections were developed using the 2030 Regional Transportation Plan developed by the Atlanta Regional Commission, the regional planning agency for the area. This allows the state Environmental Protection agency to evaluate how these

  19. Evaluation of landscape models for wolverines in the interior Northwest, United States of America

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, M.M.; Wisdom, M.J.; Johnson, D.H.; Wales, B.C.; Copeland, J.P.; Edelmann, F.B.

    2003-01-01

    The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is an uncommon, wide-ranging carnivore of conservation concern. We evaluated performance of landscape models for wolverines within their historical range at 2 scales in the interior Northwest based on recent observations (n = 421) from Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. At the subbasin scale, simple overlays of habitat and road-density classes were effective in predicting observations of wolverines. At the watershed scale, we used a Bayesian belief network model to provide spatially explicit estimates of relative habitat capability. The model has 3 inputs: amount of habitat, human population density, and road density. At both scales, the best models revealed strong correspondence between means of predicted counts of wolverines and means of observed counts (P < 0.001). Our results can be used to guide regional conservation planning for this elusive animal.

  20. Evaluation of landscape models for wolverines in the interior northwest, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, M.M.; Wisdom, M.J.; Johnson, D.H.; Wales, B.C.; Copeland, J.P.; Edelmann, F.B.

    2003-01-01

    The wolverine (Gulo gulo) is an uncommon, wide-ranging carnivore of conservation concern. We evaluated performance of landscape models for wolverines within their historical range at 2 scales in the interior Northwest based on recent observations (n = 421) from Washington, Oregon, Idaho, and Montana. At the subbasin scale, simple overlays of habitat and road-density classes were effective in predicting observations of wolverines. At the watershed scale, we used a Bayesian belief network model to provide spatially explicit estimates of relative habitat capability. The model has 3 inputs: amount of habitat, human population density, and road density. At both scales, the best models revealed strong correspondence between means of predicted counts of wolverines and means of observed counts (P < 0.001). Our results can be used to guide regional conservation planning for this elusive animal.

  1. Weak gravity conjecture, multiple point principle and the standard model landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamada, Yuta; Shiu, Gary

    2017-11-01

    The requirement for an ultraviolet completable theory to be well-behaved upon compactification has been suggested as a guiding principle for distinguishing the landscape from the swampland. Motivated by the weak gravity conjecture and the multiple point principle, we investigate the vacuum structure of the standard model compactified on S 1 and T 2. The measured value of the Higgs mass implies, in addition to the electroweak vacuum, the existence of a new vacuum where the Higgs field value is around the Planck scale. We explore two- and three-dimensional critical points of the moduli potential arising from compactifications of the electroweak vacuum as well as this high scale vacuum, in the presence of Majorana/Dirac neutrinos and/or axions. We point out potential sources of instability for these lower dimensional critical points in the standard model landscape. We also point out that a high scale AdS4 vacuum of the Standard Model, if exists, would be at odd with the conjecture that all non-supersymmetric AdS vacua are unstable. We argue that, if we require a degeneracy between three- and four-dimensional vacua as suggested by the multiple point principle, the neutrinos are predicted to be Dirac, with the mass of the lightest neutrino ≈ O(1-10) meV, which may be tested by future CMB, large scale structure and 21cm line observations.

  2. A large-scale forest landscape model incorporating multi-scale processes and utilizing forest inventory data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen J. Wang; Hong S. He; Martin A. Spetich; Stephen R. Shifley; Frank R. Thompson III; David R. Larsen; Jacob S. Fraser; Jian. Yang

    2013-01-01

    Two challenges confronting forest landscape models (FLMs) are how to simulate fine, standscale processes while making large-scale (i.e., .107 ha) simulation possible, and how to take advantage of extensive forest inventory data such as U.S. Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data to initialize and constrain model parameters. We present the LANDIS PRO model that...

  3. Scenario Methodology for Modelling of Future Landscape Developments as Basis for Assessing Ecosystem Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthias Rosenberg

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available The ecosystems of our intensively used European landscapes produce a variety of natural goods and services for the benefit of humankind, and secure the basics and quality of life. Because these ecosystems are still undergoing fundamental changes, the interest of the society is to know more about future developments and their ecological impacts. To describe and analyze these changes, scenarios can be developed and an assessment of the ecological changes can be carried out subsequently. In the project „Landscape Saxony 2050“; a methodology for the construction of exploratory scenarios was worked out. The presented methodology provides a possibility to identify the driving forces (socio-cultural, economic and ecological conditions of the landscape development. It allows to indicate possible future paths which lead to a change of structures and processes in the landscape and can influence the capability to provide ecosystem services. One essential component of the applied technique is that an approach for the assessment of the effects of the landscape changes on ecosystem services is integrated into the developed scenario methodology. Another is, that the methodology is strong designed as participatory, i.e. stakeholders are integrated actively. The method is a seven phase model which provides the option for the integration of the stakeholders‘ participation at all levels of scenario development. The scenario framework was applied to the district of Görlitz, an area of 2100 sq km located at the eastern border of Germany. The region is affected by strong demographic as well as economic changes. The core issue focused on the examination of landscape change in terms of biodiversity. Together with stakeholders, a trend scenario and two alternative scenarios were developed. The changes of the landscape structure are represented in story lines, maps and tables. On basis of the driving forces of the issue areas „cultural / social values“ and

  4. Conceptualization and Simulation of the Alaskan Arctic Tundra Landscape Evolution Using the Alaska Thermokarst Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, W. R.; Lara, M. J.; Genet, H.; Romanovsky, V. E.; McGuire, A. D.

    2016-12-01

    The Arctic, including Alaska, is currently undergoing a change in climate, with observed increases in both mean surface temperature and precipitation. The combination of these increases in precipitation and temperature has resulted in a permafrost condition that is susceptible to thermokarst. Changes in the landscape due to thermokarst takes place whenever ice-rich permafrost thaws and the land surface subsides due to the volume loss when ground-ice transitions to water. The important processes associated with thermokarst include surface ponding, changes in topography, vegetation distribution, soil moisture conditions, drainage patterns, and related erosion. The Alaska Thermokarst Model (ATM) is a large-scale, state-and-transition model designed to simulate transitions between landscape units affected by thermokarst disturbance. The ATM using a frame-based methodology to track cohorts transitions and their respective proportions within each model grid cell. In the arctic tundra environment, the ATM tracks thermokarst related transitions among wetland tundra, graminoid tundra,shrub tundra and lakes. The transition from one cohort to another due to thermokarst processes can take place if thaw reaches ice-rich ground layers either due to pulse disturbance or due to gradual active layer deepening that eventually results in penetration of the protective layer. The protective layer buffers the ice-rich soils from the land surface and is critical to determine how susceptible an area is to thermokarst degradation. The initial landcover distribution is based upon analysis of compiled remote sensing data sets at 30-m resolution. Remote sensing analysis and field measurements from previous and ongoing studies are used to determine the ice-content of the soil, the drainage efficiency (or the ability of the landscape to store or transport water), the cumulative probability of thermokarst initiation, distance from rivers, lake dynamics (increasing, decreasing, or stable), and

  5. MARSCAPE: Exploring the Martian Landscape through PARM (Projected Augmented Relief Model)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sprinks, James; Wardlaw, Jessica; Priestnall, Gary

    2017-04-01

    In the past decade through the proliferation of digital technologies, citizen science has grown in popularity and is now used as a data analysis tool across a range of disciplines. Due to the abundance of instruments currently collecting data, planetary science has become a prime candidate for, and adaptor of, citizen science platforms (Sprinks et al., 2015). Current projects (planetfour.org, moonzoo.org etc.) take a Virtual Citizen Science (VCS) approach (Reed et al., 2012), gathering scientific analysis from remotely sensed imagery that's presented to the public through a website interface. However, in presenting the data 'on screen' in a 2D form, issues regarding interpretation and context arise - for instance, depending on the angle of the Sun when the picture was taken, images of craters taken from overhead (i.e. from orbit) may appear to be a mountain. In order to address such issues regarding context and interpretation, we present MARSCAPE, an engaging and informative display that communicates key aspects of the Martian landscape to the public, including the nature and scale of landscape forms, using a unique combination of physical landscape models and synchronised 3D perspective views. It combines the proven power of physical relief models for providing overviews of landscape and discerning more subtle spatial forms and relationships, with first person game-like perspectives on the ground. It also includes the capability of projecting data 'overlays' onto the physical model of surface, such as imagery, geological mapping, or comparison examples from Earth to provide context. The aims of the MARSCAPE project are not only to solve the issues regarding context and interpretation when studying the Martian surface, but also to educate the observer in regards to the geophysical processes that occur on Mars and how they relate to those that are happening on Earth. Through using a physical display presented in a public space citizen science can be moved from an

  6. Component-based Hydrologic and Landscape Evolution Models: Interoperability, Standards, and New Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peckham, S. D.

    2010-12-01

    The Community Surface Dynamics Modeling System (CSDMS) has an ever-growing collection of reusable, plug-and-play components for earth surface process modeling and this includes numerous components for spatial hydrologic and landscape evolution modeling. While components may represent any level of granularity from a simple function to a complete hydrologic model, the optimum level appears to be that of a particular physical process, such as infiltration, evaporation or snowmelt. It is at this level of complexity that researchers are most often interested in "swapping out" one method of modeling a process for another that differs in terms of required input, complexity, accuracy, or computational efficiency. CSDMS model components are designed for maximum reusability and strict adherence to this simple-sounding goal has proven to be a powerful decider when it comes to chosing between a number of different design choices. For example, it determines key aspects of a component's interface, and the need for each component to have or manage its own state variables, input files, output files and help files. As a result, each component can be used either as a stand-alone "submodel" or as a component in some larger model. Components do not, however, need to be written in the same language because the CSDMS project employs a powerful language-interoperability tool called Babel. The purpose of this talk is to share a few lessons learned from the CSDMS project, to provide an overview of the many components that are currently available, and to briefly present performance results from a new fluvial landscape evolution algorithm.

  7. Impact of land management on hydrological functioning in cultivated landscapes: a coupled model of functional assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paré, Nakié; Biarnès, Anne; Barbier, Jean-Marc; Voltz, Marc

    2010-05-01

    In cultivated landscapes, hydrological functioning is highly influenced by anthropic drivers. Indeed, spatio-temporal patterns in land management affect processes such as run-off or pollutant flow. Reciprocally, at the scale of a cropping season, hydrological functioning of land influences farmers' actions on crops. Consequently, the assessment of the hydrologic impacts of land management needs recognition of the global functioning of the system which requires a close coupling between the modelling of land management actions and hydrological processes. Most of hydrological models take into account a spatial representation of the landscape mosaic created by land management. However the resolution used for the temporal evolution of this pattern is coarser than the one required by hydrological model which simulate processes over short time steps. Consequently, there is a need for more accurate temporal representation of land management which means an analysis of the crop management systems and the integration of bio-physical feedback mechanisms on management decisions. We propose an approach for assessing the hydrological impact of crop management system in the specific case of pollutant loading in a perennial crop area, based on the coupling of a distributed hydrological model with a farmer's decision model. This latter model represents land management with decision rules applied by farmers to drive their collection of plots during the whole cropping cycle. It includes agronomic rules based on indicators of the state of the bio-physical system at plot levels as well as work organisation rules at farm level. Different types of crop management system induced by the diversity of farmers are thus represented by different rules set which can be spatially distributed. The spatial pattern in crop management represented by the decision model determines the hydrological functioning of the landscape. A feedback exists since the hydrological processes like the spatio

  8. Using interactive modeling tools to engage with, inform and empower decision making in local communities of landscape managers

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard

    - and long term environmental impact of landscape management. This opens up a number of questions regarding the status and consequence of scientific data and modelled impact estimates as compared to locally held knowledge and expertise. It also opens up questions regarding how the injection of modelling...... for modelling the effect of agricultural land use decisions on nitrogen emission to the environment at landscape scales. Recently Danish authorities proposed to shift the scale of regulation from national regulatory instruments to a more local level to better fit relevant socio-political and agro...... from the workshops, it is discussed how scientific and locally held knowledge interact in participatory scenario situations and how the decision making of local land users is affected by the advent of and authority of interactive landscape scale modelling tools....

  9. Spectral tensor parameters for wind turbine load modeling from forested and agricultural landscapes

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Chougule, Abhijit S.; Mann, Jakob; Segalini, A.

    2015-01-01

    A velocity spectral tensor model was evaluated from the single-point measurements of wind speed. The model contains three parameters representing the dissipation rate of specific turbulent kinetic energy, a turbulence length scale and the turbulence anisotropy. Sonic anemometer measurements taken...... over a forested and an agricultural landscape were used to calculate the model parameters for neutral, slightly stable and slightly unstable atmospheric conditions for a selected wind speed interval. The dissipation rate above the forest was nine times that at the agricultural site. No significant...... differences were observed in the turbulence length scales between the forested and agricultural areas. Only a small difference was observed in the turbulence anisotropy at the two sites, except near the surface, where the forest turbulence was more isotropic. The turbulence anisotropy remained more or less...

  10. Presenting Cultural Heritage Landscapes - from GIS via 3d Models to Interactive Presentation Frameworks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prechtel, N.; Münster, S.; Kröber, C.; Schubert, C.; Schietzold, S.

    2013-07-01

    Two current projects of the authors try to approach cultural heritage landscapes from both cultural sciences and geography through a combination of customised geo-information (GIS) and visualisation/presentation technology. In excess of a mere academic use, easyto- handle virtual 3D web presentations may contribute to knowledge, esteem, commemoration and preservation. The examples relate to pre-historic Scythian burial sites in the South-Siberian Altay Mountains ("Uch Enmek") as well as to a "virtual memorial" of contemporary history ("GEPAM"), a chapter of Jewish prosecution in the "Third Reich", which historically connects the town of Dresden with the Czech Terezin (Theresienstadt). It is common knowledge that a profound understanding of (pre-)historic artefacts and places may reflect a larger environment as well as an individual geographic setting. Coming from this background, the presented projects try to find technical solutions. They start from GIS models and aim at customised interactive presentations of 3D models. In using the latter a widely-spanned public is invited to a land- or townscape of specific cultural importance. The geographic space is thought to work as a door to a repository of educational exhibits under the umbrella of a web application. Within this concept a landscape/townscape also accounts for the time dimension in different scales (time of construction/operation versus actual state, and in sense of a season and time of the day as a principal modulator of visual perception of space).

  11. Inferring landscape effects on gene flow: A new model selection framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    A. J. Shirk; D. O. Wallin; S. A. Cushman; C. G. Rice; K. I. Warheit

    2010-01-01

    Populations in fragmented landscapes experience reduced gene flow, lose genetic diversity over time and ultimately face greater extinction risk. Improving connectivity in fragmented landscapes is now a major focus of conservation biology. Designing effective wildlife corridors for this purpose, however, requires an accurate understanding of how landscapes shape gene...

  12. Assessment of Flood Frequency Alteration by Dam Construction via SWAT Simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeong Eun Lee

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this study is to evaluate the impacts of the upstream Soyanggang and Chungju multi-purpose dams on the frequency of downstream floods in the Han River basin, South Korea. A continuous hydrological model, SWAT (Soil and Water Assessment Tool, was used to individually simulate regulated and unregulated daily streamflows entering the Paldang Dam, which is located at the outlet of the basin of interest. The simulation of the regulated flows by the Soyanggang and Chungju dams was calibrated with observed inflow data to the Paldang Dam. The estimated daily flood peaks were used for a frequency analysis, using the extreme Type-I distribution, for which the parameters were estimated via the L-moment method. This novel approach was applied to the study area to assess the effects of the dams on downstream floods. From the results, the two upstream dams were found to be able to reduce downstream floods by approximately 31% compared to naturally occurring floods without dam regulation. Furthermore, an approach to estimate the flood frequency based on the hourly extreme peak flow data, obtained by combining SWAT simulation and Sangal’s method, was proposed and then verified by comparison with the observation-based results. The increased percentage of floods estimated with hourly simulated data for the three scenarios of dam regulation ranged from 16.1% to 44.1%. The reduced percentages were a little higher than those for the daily-based flood frequency estimates. The developed approach allowed for better understanding of flood frequency, as influenced by dam regulation on a relatively large watershed scale.

  13. Rainfall simulations on steep calanchi landscapes: Generating input parameters for physically based erosion modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Andreas; Buchholz, Arno; Neugirg, Fabian; Schindewolf, Marcus

    2016-04-01

    Calanchi landscapes in central Italy have been subject to geoscientific research since many years, not exclusively but especially for questions regarding soil erosion and land degradation. Seasonal dynamics play an important role for morphological processes within the Calanchi. As in most Mediterranean landscapes also in the research site at Val d'Orcia long and dry summers are ended by heavy rainfall events in autumn. The latter contribute to most of the annual sediment output of the incised hollows and can cause damage to agricultural land and infrastructures. While research for understanding Calanco development is of high importance, the complex morphology and thus limited accessibility impedes in situ works. To still improve the understanding of morphodynamics without unnecessarily impinging natural conditions a remote sensing and erosion modelling approach was carried out in the presented work. UAV and LiDAR based very high resolution digital surface models were produced and served as an input parameter for the raster and physically based soil erosion model EROSION3D. Additionally, data on infiltration, runoff generation and sediment detachment were generated with artificial rainfall simulations - the most invasive but unavoidable method. To increase the 1 m plot length virtually to around 20 m the sediment loaded runoff water was again introduced to the plot by a reflux system. Rather elaborate logistics were required to set up the simulator on strongly inclined slopes, to establish sufficient water supply and to secure the simulator on the slope but experiments produced plausible results and valuable input data for modelling. The model results are then compared to the repeated UAV and LiDAR campaigns and the resulting digital elevation models of difference. By simulating different rainfall and moisture scenarios and implementing in situ measured weather data runoff induced processes can be distinguished from gravitational slides and rockfall.

  14. Landscape scale estimation of soil carbon stock using 3D modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Veronesi, F; Corstanje, R; Mayr, T

    2014-07-15

    Soil C is the largest pool of carbon in the terrestrial biosphere, and yet the processes of C accumulation, transformation and loss are poorly accounted for. This, in part, is due to the fact that soil C is not uniformly distributed through the soil depth profile and most current landscape level predictions of C do not adequately account the vertical distribution of soil C. In this study, we apply a method based on simple soil specific depth functions to map the soil C stock in three-dimensions at landscape scale. We used soil C and bulk density data from the Soil Survey for England and Wales to map an area in the West Midlands region of approximately 13,948 km(2). We applied a method which describes the variation through the soil profile and interpolates this across the landscape using well established soil drivers such as relief, land cover and geology. The results indicate that this mapping method can effectively reproduce the observed variation in the soil profiles samples. The mapping results were validated using cross validation and an independent validation. The cross-validation resulted in an R(2) of 36% for soil C and 44% for BULKD. These results are generally in line with previous validated studies. In addition, an independent validation was undertaken, comparing the predictions against the National Soil Inventory (NSI) dataset. The majority of the residuals of this validation are between ± 5% of soil C. This indicates high level of accuracy in replicating topsoil values. In addition, the results were compared to a previous study estimating the carbon stock of the UK. We discuss the implications of our results within the context of soil C loss factors such as erosion and the impact on regional C process models. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. Habitat fragmentation, vole population fluctuations, and the ROMPA hypothesis: An experimental test using model landscapes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Batzli, George O

    2016-11-01

    Increased habitat fragmentation leads to smaller size of habitat patches and to greater distance between patches. The ROMPA hypothesis (ratio of optimal to marginal patch area) uniquely links vole population fluctuations to the composition of the landscape. It states that as ROMPA decreases (fragmentation increases), vole population fluctuations will increase (including the tendency to display multi-annual cycles in abundance) because decreased proportions of optimal habitat result in greater population declines and longer recovery time after a harsh season. To date, only comparative observations in the field have supported the hypothesis. This paper reports the results of the first experimental test. I used prairie voles, Microtus ochrogaster, and mowed grassland to create model landscapes with 3 levels of ROMPA (high with 25% mowed, medium with 50% mowed and low with 75% mowed). As ROMPA decreased, distances between patches of favorable habitat (high cover) increased owing to a greater proportion of unfavorable (mowed) habitat. Results from the first year with intensive live trapping indicated that the preconditions for operation of the hypothesis existed (inversely density dependent emigration and, as ROMPA decreased, increased per capita mortality and decreased per capita movement between optimal patches). Nevertheless, contrary to the prediction of the hypothesis that populations in landscapes with high ROMPA should have the lowest variability, 5 years of trapping indicated that variability was lowest with medium ROMPA. The design of field experiments may never be perfect, but these results indicate that the ROMPA hypothesis needs further rigorous testing. © 2016 International Society of Zoological Sciences, Institute of Zoology/Chinese Academy of Sciences and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.

  16. Landscape metrics, scales of resolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin McGarigal

    2008-01-01

    Effective implementation of the "multiple path" approach to managing green landscapes depends fundamentally on rigorous quantification of the composition and structure of the landscapes of concern at present, modelling landscape structure trajectories under alternative management paths, and monitoring landscape structure into the future to confirm...

  17. Landscape models of brook trout abundance and distribution in lotic habitat with field validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKenna, James E.; Johnson, James H.

    2011-01-01

    Brook trout Salvelinus fontinalis are native fish in decline owing to environmental changes. Predictions of their potential distribution and a better understanding of their relationship to habitat conditions would enhance the management and conservation of this valuable species. We used over 7,800 brook trout observations throughout New York State and georeferenced, multiscale landscape condition data to develop four regionally specific artificial neural network models to predict brook trout abundance in rivers and streams. Land cover data provided a general signature of human activity, but other habitat variables were resistant to anthropogenic changes (i.e., changing on a geological time scale). The resulting models predict the potential for any stream to support brook trout. The models were validated by holding 20% of the data out as a test set and by comparison with additional field collections from a variety of habitat types. The models performed well, explaining more than 90% of data variability. Errors were often associated with small spatial displacements of predicted values. When compared with the additional field collections (39 sites), 92% of the predictions were off by only a single class from the field-observed abundances. Among “least-disturbed” field collection sites, all predictions were correct or off by a single abundance class, except for one where brown trout Salmo trutta were present. Other degrading factors were evident at most sites where brook trout were absent or less abundant than predicted. The most important habitat variables included landscape slope, stream and drainage network sizes, water temperature, and extent of forest cover. Predicted brook trout abundances were applied to all New York streams, providing a synoptic map of the distribution of brook trout habitat potential. These fish models set benchmarks of best potential for streams to support brook trout under broad-scale human influences and can assist with planning and

  18. Modeling the Epigenetic Attractors Landscape: Towards a Post-Genomic Mechanistic Understanding of Development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jose eDavila-Velderrain

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Robust temporal and spatial patterns of cell types emerge in the course of normal development in multicellular organisms. The onset of degenerative diseases may result from altered cell fate decisions that give rise to pathological phenotypes. Complex networks of genetic and non-genetic components underlie such normal and altered morphogenetic patterns. Here we focus on the networks of regulatory interactions involved in cell-fate decisions. Such networks modeled as dynamical non-linear systems attain particular stable configurations on gene activity that have been interpreted as cell-fate states. The network structure also restricts the most probable transition patterns among such states. The so-called Epigenetic Landscape (EL, originally proposed by C.H. Waddington, was an early attempt to conceptually explain the emergence of developmental choices as the result of intrinsic constraints (regulatory interactions shaped during evolution. Thanks to the wealth of molecular genetic and genomic studies, we are now able to postulate gene regulatory networks (GRN grounded on experimental data, and to derive EL models for specific cases. This, in turn, has motivated several mathematical and computational modeling approaches inspired by the EL concept, that may be useful tools to understand and predict cell-fate decisions and emerging patterns. In order to distinguish between the classical metaphorical EL proposal of Waddington, we refer to the Epigenetic Attractors Landscape (EAL, a proposal that is formally framed in the context of GRNs and dynamical systems theory. In this review we discuss recent EAL modeling strategies, their conceptual basis and their application in studying the emergence of both normal and pathological developmental processes. In addition, we discuss how model predictions can shed light into rational strategies for cell fate regulation, and we point to challenges ahead.

  19. The landscape of chromosomal aberrations in breast cancer mouse models reveals driver-specific routes to tumorigenesis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ben-David, Uri; Ha, Gavin; Khadka, Prasidda; Jin, Xin; Wong, Bang; Franke, Lude; Golub, Todd R.

    Aneuploidy and copy-number alterations (CNAs) are a hallmark of human cancer. Although genetically engineered mouse models (GEMMs) are commonly used to model human cancer, their chromosomal landscapes remain underexplored. Here we use gene expression profiles to infer CNAs in 3,108 samples from 45

  20. Development of landscape-level habitat suitability models for ten wildlife species in the central hardwoods region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chadwick D. Rittenhouse; William D. Dijak; Frank R. III Thompson; Joshua J. Millspaugh

    2007-01-01

    Reports landscape-level habitat suitability models for 10 species in the Central Hardwoods Region of the Midwestern United States: American woodcock, cerulean warbler, Henslow's sparrow, Indiana bat, northern bobwhite, ruffed grouse, timber rattlesnake, wood thrush, worm-eating warbler, and yellow-breasted chat. All models included spatially explicit variables and...

  1. Relative importance of fuel management, ignition management and weather for area burned: Evidence from five landscape-fire-succession models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Mike D. Flannigan; Robert E. Keane; Ross A. Bradstock; Ian D. Davies; James M. Lenihan; Chao Li; Kimberley A. Logan; Russell A. Parsons

    2009-01-01

    The behaviour of five landscape fire models (CAFE, FIRESCAPE, LAMOS(HS), LANDSUM and SEMLAND) was compared in a standardised modelling experiment. The importance of fuel management approach, fuel management effort, ignition management effort and weather in determining variation in area burned and number of edge pixels burned (a measure of potential impact on assets...

  2. LANDIS 4.0 users guide. LANDIS: a spatially explicit model of forest landscape disturbance, management, and succession

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong S. He; Wei Li; Brian R. Sturtevant; Jian Yang; Bo Z. Shang; Eric J. Gustafson; David J. Mladenoff

    2005-01-01

    LANDIS 4.0 is new-generation software that simulates forest landscape change over large spatial and temporal scales. It is used to explore how disturbances, succession, and management interact to determine forest composition and pattern. Also describes software architecture, model assumptions and provides detailed instructions on the use of the model.

  3. Modeling the impact of future development and public conservation orientation on landscape connectivity for conservation planning

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lechner, Alex Mark; Brown, Greg; Raymond, Christopher Mark

    2015-01-01

    Context Recent papers on the spatial assessment of conservation opportunity have focused on how social values for conservation may change modeled conservation outcomes. Accounting for social factors is important for regional wildlife corridor initiatives as they often emphasize the collaborative...... aspects of conservation planning. Objectives We present an approach for characterizing the potential effects of public conservation orientation and projected future development land use scenarios on landscape connectivity. Methods Using public participation GIS techniques (mail-based surveys linked...... to a mapping component), we classified spatially explicit conservation values and preferences into a conservation orientation index consisting of positive, negative, or neutral scores. Connectivity was then modeled using a least-cost path and graph-network approach for a range of conservation orientation...

  4. Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland: A Coupled Natural-Human System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lant, C.; Misgna, G.; Secchi, S.; Schoof, J. T.

    2012-12-01

    This paper will present a methodological overview of an NSF-funded project under the Coupled Natural and Human System program. Climate change, coupled with variations and changes in economic and policy environments and agricultural techniques, will alter the landscape of the U.S. Midwest. Assessing the effects of these changes on watersheds, and thus on water quantity, water quality, and agricultural production, entails modeling a coupled natural-human system capable of answering research questions such as: (1) How will the climate of the U.S. Midwest change through the remainder of the 21st Century? (2) How will climate change, together with changing markets and policies, affect land use patterns at various scales, from the U.S. Midwest, to agricultural regions, to watersheds, to farms and fields? (3) Under what policies and prices does landscape change induced by climate change generate a positive or a negative feedback through changes in carbon storage, evapotranspiration, and albedo? (4) Will climate change expand or diminish the agricultural production and ecosystem service generation capacities of specific watersheds? Such research can facilitate early adaptation and make a timely contribution to the successful integration of agricultural, environmental, and trade policy. Rural landscapes behave as a system through a number of feedback mechanisms: climatic, agro-technology, market, and policy. Methods, including agent-based modeling, SWAT modeling, map algebra using logistic regression, and genetic algorithms for analyzing each of these feedback mechanisms will be described. Selected early results that link sub-system models and incorporate critical feedbacks will also be presented.igure 1. Overall Modeling framework for Climate Change, Hydrology and Landscapes of America's Heartland.

  5. Quantifying nutrient export and deposition with a dynamic landscape evolution model for the lake Bolsena watershed, Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelorosso, Raffaele; Temme, Arnoud; Gobattoni, Federica; Leone, Antonio

    2010-05-01

    Excessive nutrient loads from upstream watershed activities such as agriculture, hydrological modifications, and urban runoff, have been identified as the leading cause of deterioration in assessed lakes and reservoirs (USEPA, 2000; Leone et al., 2001; Leone et al., 2003). Excessive nutrient transport into lakes and reservoirs may accelerate eutrophication rates, causing negative impacts on aesthetic and water quality. As reservoirs become eutrophic, they are depleted in oxygen and enriched in suspended solids, with heavy consequences for ecosystems and natural habitats. Management of nutrient loads into reservoirs requires knowledge of nutrient transport and delivery from the watershed-stream system (Ripa, 2003). Managing uncultivated lands in watersheds may be a cost effective way to improve water quality in agricultural landscapes, and recent advances in landscape ecology highlight important relationships between the structural configuration of these lands and nutrient redistribution (e.g., Forman 1987; Barrett and others 1990). Many studies have been carried out to underline and explain how landscape characteristics and structure may affect these processes. In these studies, relations between land cover and nutrient storage were analyzed using geographic information systems (GIS) (e.g. Lucas, 2002). Nutrients are generally transported from the landscape into streams during runoff events; however, they may also enter stream flow from other sources such as groundwater recharge and point source effluent discharges (Lucas, 2002; Nielsen, 2007; Waldron, 2008; Castillo, 2009). Water moves nutrients and delivers them to downstream water bodies such as lakes and reservoirs so that erosion phenomena play an essential role in determining nutrients fluxes and deposition. On the one hand, several hydrological models take into account nutrients reactions, movements and deposition - coupling soil erosion processes with transport equations (Bartley, 2004; Lű, 2010). On the

  6. The periglacial engine of mountain erosion – Part 2: Modelling large-scale landscape evolution

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. Egholm

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available There is growing recognition of strong periglacial control on bedrock erosion in mountain landscapes, including the shaping of low-relief surfaces at high elevations (summit flats. But, as yet, the hypothesis that frost action was crucial to the assumed Late Cenozoic rise in erosion rates remains compelling and untested. Here we present a landscape evolution model incorporating two key periglacial processes – regolith production via frost cracking and sediment transport via frost creep – which together are harnessed to variations in temperature and the evolving thickness of sediment cover. Our computational experiments time-integrate the contribution of frost action to shaping mountain topography over million-year timescales, with the primary and highly reproducible outcome being the development of flattish or gently convex summit flats. A simple scaling of temperature to marine δ18O records spanning the past 14 Myr indicates that the highest summit flats in mid- to high-latitude mountains may have formed via frost action prior to the Quaternary. We suggest that deep cooling in the Quaternary accelerated mechanical weathering globally by significantly expanding the area subject to frost. Further, the inclusion of subglacial erosion alongside periglacial processes in our computational experiments points to alpine glaciers increasing the long-term efficiency of frost-driven erosion by steepening hillslopes.

  7. Projecting biodiversity and wood production in future forest landscapes: 15 key modeling considerations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Felton, Adam; Ranius, Thomas; Roberge, Jean-Michel; Öhman, Karin; Lämås, Tomas; Hynynen, Jari; Juutinen, Artti; Mönkkönen, Mikko; Nilsson, Urban; Lundmark, Tomas; Nordin, Annika

    2017-07-15

    A variety of modeling approaches can be used to project the future development of forest systems, and help to assess the implications of different management alternatives for biodiversity and ecosystem services. This diversity of approaches does however present both an opportunity and an obstacle for those trying to decide which modeling technique to apply, and interpreting the management implications of model output. Furthermore, the breadth of issues relevant to addressing key questions related to forest ecology, conservation biology, silviculture, economics, requires insights stemming from a number of distinct scientific disciplines. As forest planners, conservation ecologists, ecological economists and silviculturalists, experienced with modeling trade-offs and synergies between biodiversity and wood biomass production, we identified fifteen key considerations relevant to assessing the pros and cons of alternative modeling approaches. Specifically we identified key considerations linked to study question formulation, modeling forest dynamics, forest processes, study landscapes, spatial and temporal aspects, and the key response metrics - biodiversity and wood biomass production, as well as dealing with trade-offs and uncertainties. We also provide illustrative examples from the modeling literature stemming from the key considerations assessed. We use our findings to reiterate the need for explicitly addressing and conveying the limitations and uncertainties of any modeling approach taken, and the need for interdisciplinary research efforts when addressing the conservation of biodiversity and sustainable use of environmental resources. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Landslide model performance in a high resolution small-scale landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Sy, V.; Schoorl, J. M.; Keesstra, S. D.; Jones, K. E.; Claessens, L.

    2013-05-01

    The frequency and severity of shallow landslides in New Zealand threatens life and property, both on- and off-site. The physically-based shallow landslide model LAPSUS-LS is tested for its performance in simulating shallow landslide locations induced by a high intensity rain event in a small-scale landscape. Furthermore, the effect of high resolution digital elevation models on the performance was tested. The performance of the model was optimised by calibrating different parameter values. A satisfactory result was achieved with a high resolution (1 m) DEM. Landslides, however, were generally predicted lower on the slope than mapped erosion scars. This discrepancy could be due to i) inaccuracies in the DEM or in other model input data such as soil strength properties; ii) relevant processes for this environmental context that are not included in the model; or iii) the limited validity of the infinite length assumption in the infinite slope stability model embedded in the LAPSUS-LS. The trade-off between a correct prediction of landslides versus stable cells becomes increasingly worse with coarser resolutions; and model performance decreases mainly due to altering slope characteristics. The optimal parameter combinations differ per resolution. In this environmental context the 1 m resolution topography resembles actual topography most closely and landslide locations are better distinguished from stable areas than for coarser resolutions. More gain in model performance could be achieved by adding landslide process complexities and parameter heterogeneity of the catchment.

  9. Forest Productivity and Diversity: Using Ecological Theory and Landscape Models to Guide Sustainable Forest Management

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huston, M.A.

    1998-11-01

    Sustainable forest management requires maintaining or increasing ecosystem productivity, while preserving or restoring natural levels of biodiversity. Application of general concepts from ecological theory, along with use of mechanistic, landscape-based computer models, can contribute to the successful achievement of both of these objectives. Ecological theories based on the energetics and dynamics of populations can be used to predict the general distribution of individual species, the diversity of different types of species, ecosystem process rates and pool sizes, and patterns of spatial and temporal heterogeneity over a broad range of environmental conditions. This approach requires subdivision of total biodiversity into functional types of organisms, primarily because different types of organisms respond very differently to the spatial and temporal variation of environmental conditions on landscapes. The diversity of species of the same functional type (particularly among plants) tends to be highest at relatively low levels of net primary productivity, while the total number of different functional types (particularly among animals) tends to be highest at high levels of productivity (e.g., site index or potential net primary productivity). In general, the diversity of animals at higher trophic levels (e.g., predators) reaches its maximum at much higher levels of productivity than the diversity of lower trophic levels (e.g., plants). This means that a single environment cannot support high diversity of all types of organisms. Within the framework of the general patterns described above, the distributions, population dynamics, and diversity of organisms in specific regions can be predicted more precisely using a combination of computer simulation models and GIS data based on satellite information and ground surveys. Biophysical models that use information on soil properties, climate, and hydrology have been developed to predict how the abundance and spatial

  10. Comparison of performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT 2009 and 2012 in an extensively tile-drained watershed in the Midwest

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Guo

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Subsurface tile drainage systems are widely used in agricultural watersheds in the Midwestern US and enable the Midwest area to become highly productive agricultural lands, but can also create environmental problems, for example nitrate-N contamination associated with drainage waters. The Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT has been used to model watersheds with tile drainage. SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 provide new tile drainage routines. However, few studies have used these revisions to study tile drainage impacts at both field and watershed scales. Moreover, SWAT2012 revision 645 improved the soil moisture based curve number calculation method, which has not been fully tested. This study used long-term (1991–2003 field site and river station data from the Little Vermilion River (LVR watershed to evaluate performance of tile drainage routines in SWAT2009 revision 528 (the old routine and SWAT2012 revisions 615 and 645 (the new routine. Both the old and new routines provided reasonable but unsatisfactory (NSE  <  0.5 uncalibrated flow and nitrate loss results for a mildly sloped watershed with low runoff. The calibrated monthly tile flow, surface flow, nitrate-N in tile and surface flow, sediment and annual corn and soybean yield results from SWAT with the old and new tile drainage routines were compared with observed values. Generally, the new routine provided acceptable simulated tile flow (NSE  =  0.48–0.65 and nitrate in tile flow (NSE  =  0.48–0.68 for field sites with random pattern tile and constant tile spacing, while the old routine simulated tile flow and nitrate in tile flow results for the field site with constant tile spacing were unacceptable (NSE  =  0.00–0.32 and −0.29–0.06, respectively. The new modified curve number calculation method in revision 645 (NSE  =  0.50–0.81 better simulated surface runoff than revision 615 (NSE  =  −0.11–0.49. The calibration

  11. Searching for Drug Synergy in Complex Dose-Response Landscapes Using an Interaction Potency Model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Bhagwan; Wennerberg, Krister; Aittokallio, Tero; Tang, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Rational design of multi-targeted drug combinations is a promising strategy to tackle the drug resistance problem for many complex disorders. A drug combination is usually classified as synergistic or antagonistic, depending on the deviation of the observed combination response from the expected effect calculated based on a reference model of non-interaction. The existing reference models were proposed originally for low-throughput drug combination experiments, which make the model assumptions often incompatible with the complex drug interaction patterns across various dose pairs that are typically observed in large-scale dose-response matrix experiments. To address these limitations, we proposed a novel reference model, named zero interaction potency (ZIP), which captures the drug interaction relationships by comparing the change in the potency of the dose-response curves between individual drugs and their combinations. We utilized a delta score to quantify the deviation from the expectation of zero interaction, and proved that a delta score value of zero implies both probabilistic independence and dose additivity. Using data from a large-scale anticancer drug combination experiment, we demonstrated empirically how the ZIP scoring approach captures the experimentally confirmed drug synergy while keeping the false positive rate at a low level. Further, rather than relying on a single parameter to assess drug interaction, we proposed the use of an interaction landscape over the full dose-response matrix to identify and quantify synergistic and antagonistic dose regions. The interaction landscape offers an increased power to differentiate between various classes of drug combinations, and may therefore provide an improved means for understanding their mechanisms of action toward clinical translation.

  12. Searching for Drug Synergy in Complex Dose–Response Landscapes Using an Interaction Potency Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Bhagwan; Wennerberg, Krister; Aittokallio, Tero; Tang, Jing

    2015-01-01

    Rational design of multi-targeted drug combinations is a promising strategy to tackle the drug resistance problem for many complex disorders. A drug combination is usually classified as synergistic or antagonistic, depending on the deviation of the observed combination response from the expected effect calculated based on a reference model of non-interaction. The existing reference models were proposed originally for low-throughput drug combination experiments, which make the model assumptions often incompatible with the complex drug interaction patterns across various dose pairs that are typically observed in large-scale dose–response matrix experiments. To address these limitations, we proposed a novel reference model, named zero interaction potency (ZIP), which captures the drug interaction relationships by comparing the change in the potency of the dose–response curves between individual drugs and their combinations. We utilized a delta score to quantify the deviation from the expectation of zero interaction, and proved that a delta score value of zero implies both probabilistic independence and dose additivity. Using data from a large-scale anticancer drug combination experiment, we demonstrated empirically how the ZIP scoring approach captures the experimentally confirmed drug synergy while keeping the false positive rate at a low level. Further, rather than relying on a single parameter to assess drug interaction, we proposed the use of an interaction landscape over the full dose–response matrix to identify and quantify synergistic and antagonistic dose regions. The interaction landscape offers an increased power to differentiate between various classes of drug combinations, and may therefore provide an improved means for understanding their mechanisms of action toward clinical translation. PMID:26949479

  13. pH landscapes in a novel five-species model of early dental biofilm.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlafer, Sebastian; Raarup, Merete K; Meyer, Rikke L; Sutherland, Duncan S; Dige, Irene; Nyengaard, Jens R; Nyvad, Bente

    2011-01-01

    Despite continued preventive efforts, dental caries remains the most common disease of man. Organic acids produced by microorganisms in dental plaque play a crucial role for the development of carious lesions. During early stages of the pathogenetic process, repeated pH drops induce changes in microbial composition and favour the establishment of an increasingly acidogenic and aciduric microflora. The complex structure of dental biofilms, allowing for a multitude of different ecological environments in close proximity, remains largely unexplored. In this study, we designed a laboratory biofilm model that mimics the bacterial community present during early acidogenic stages of the caries process. We then performed a time-resolved microscopic analysis of the extracellular pH landscape at the interface between bacterial biofilm and underlying substrate. Strains of Streptococcus oralis, Streptococcus sanguinis, Streptococcus mitis, Streptococcus downei and Actinomyces naeslundii were employed in the model. Biofilms were grown in flow channels that allowed for direct microscopic analysis of the biofilms in situ. The architecture and composition of the biofilms were analysed using fluorescence in situ hybridization and confocal laser scanning microscopy. Both biofilm structure and composition were highly reproducible and showed similarity to in-vivo-grown dental plaque. We employed the pH-sensitive ratiometric probe C-SNARF-4 to perform real-time microscopic analyses of the biofilm pH in response to salivary solutions containing glucose. Anaerobic glycolysis in the model biofilms created a mildly acidic environment. Decrease in pH in different areas of the biofilms varied, and distinct extracellular pH-microenvironments were conserved over several hours. The designed biofilm model represents a promising tool to determine the effect of potential therapeutic agents on biofilm growth, composition and extracellular pH. Ratiometric pH analysis using C-SNARF-4 gives detailed

  14. Landscape Studio

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Peter Lundsgaard

    2017-01-01

    Landscape studio documents is the biography of the method 'design conversation' and contributes to the way we work with landscapes. The blog communicates renewed landscape didactics and leads to the innovation of design practices.......Landscape studio documents is the biography of the method 'design conversation' and contributes to the way we work with landscapes. The blog communicates renewed landscape didactics and leads to the innovation of design practices....

  15. Modeling the relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality in a typical highly intensive agricultural small watershed, Dongting lake basin, south central China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Hongqing; Liu, Liming; Ji, Xiang

    2015-03-01

    Understanding the relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality is critically important for estimating pollution potential and reducing pollution risk. Therefore, this study examines the relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality at both spatial and temporal scales. The study took place in the Jinjing River watershed in 2010; seven landscape types and four water quality pollutions were chosen as analysis parameters. Three different buffer areas along the river were drawn to analyze the relationship as a function of spatial scale. The results of a Pearson's correlation coefficient analysis suggest that "source" landscape, namely, tea gardens, residential areas, and paddy lands, have positive effects on water quality parameters, while forests exhibit a negative influence on water quality parameters because they represent a "sink" landscape and the sub-watershed level is identified as a suitable scale. Using the principal component analysis, tea gardens, residential areas, paddy lands, and forests were identified as the main landscape index. A stepwise multiple regression analysis was employed to model the relationship between landscape characteristics and water quality for each season. The results demonstrate that both landscape composition and configuration affect water quality. In summer and winter, the landscape metrics explained approximately 80.7 % of the variance in the water quality variables, which was higher than that for spring and fall (60.3 %). This study can help environmental managers to understand the relationships between landscapes and water quality and provide landscape ecological approaches for water quality control and land use management.

  16. Discussing Landscape Compositional Scenarios Generated with Maximization of Non-Expected Utility Decision Models Based on Weighted Entropies

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    José Pinto Casquilho

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available The search for hypothetical optimal solutions of landscape composition is a major issue in landscape planning and it can be outlined in a two-dimensional decision space involving economic value and landscape diversity, the latter being considered as a potential safeguard to the provision of services and externalities not accounted in the economic value. In this paper, we use decision models with different utility valuations combined with weighted entropies respectively incorporating rarity factors associated to Gini-Simpson and Shannon measures. A small example of this framework is provided and discussed for landscape compositional scenarios in the region of Nisa, Portugal. The optimal solutions relative to the different cases considered are assessed in the two-dimensional decision space using a benchmark indicator. The results indicate that the likely best combination is achieved by the solution using Shannon weighted entropy and a square root utility function, corresponding to a risk-averse behavior associated to the precautionary principle linked to safeguarding landscape diversity, anchoring for ecosystem services provision and other externalities. Further developments are suggested, mainly those relative to the hypothesis that the decision models here outlined could be used to revisit the stability-complexity debate in the field of ecological studies.

  17. CoFoLaMo: Comparing forest landscape model simulations under different climate, interaction- and land use scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lischke, Heike; Speich, Matthias; Schmatz, Dirk; Vacchiano, Giorgio; Mairota, Paola; Leronni, Vincenzo; Schuler, Laura; Bugmann, Harald; Bruna, Josef; Thom, Dominik; Seidl, Rupert; Reineking, Björn

    2016-04-01

    Forests play an important role in the global climate system, and are themselves strongly affected by the changing climate. Forest dynamics do not only act at the stand scale, but are also influenced by larger scale drivers, such as landscape management, and by spatial interactions, such as fire spread or seed dispersal. Forest landscape models run on areas larger than a stand and interact spatially and thus are capable of taking into account these effects. We present the setup of the forest landscape model intercomparison CoFoLaMo (which is based on the setup of the ISI-MIP forest stand model comparison), where we examine several forest landscape models- LandClim, ForHyCS, TreeMig, LANDIS II and iLand - in terms of their usefulness for different kinds of applications. We compare the models with respect to their general approach, scales, resolution, and data requirements, processes, interactions, drivers, disturbances, outputs, and uncertainties. We run simulations in different test regions across temperate Europe, e.g., in the northern(Davos)and southern Alps (Valle d'Aosta), the Bavarian Forest and southern Italy (Puglia). Climate drivers (mostly daily T and P) are downscaled to 100 m resolution in the respective regions. For spinup and model testing we use past observed climate, extrapolated back to 1600 AD, for future simulations a set of different RCPs of different model chains from the ISI-MIP community. For model testing we use appropriate spatial forest data available for each region, ranging from NFI data, terrestrial vegetation type maps, or remote sensing derived forest types and high resolution canopy height. To address the landscape aspect of the models, we compare them in different scenarios of spatially interacting disturbances, spatial interactions by seed dispersal and land use.

  18. A computational modeling of semantic knowledge in reading comprehension: Integrating the landscape model with latent semantic analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeari, Menahem; van den Broek, Paul

    2016-09-01

    It is a well-accepted view that the prior semantic (general) knowledge that readers possess plays a central role in reading comprehension. Nevertheless, computational models of reading comprehension have not integrated the simulation of semantic knowledge and online comprehension processes under a unified mathematical algorithm. The present article introduces a computational model that integrates the landscape model of comprehension processes with latent semantic analysis representation of semantic knowledge. In three sets of simulations of previous behavioral findings, the integrated model successfully simulated the activation and attenuation of predictive and bridging inferences during reading, as well as centrality estimations and recall of textual information after reading. Analyses of the computational results revealed new theoretical insights regarding the underlying mechanisms of the various comprehension phenomena.

  19. Modeling effects of traffic and landscape characteristics on ambient nitrogen dioxide levels in Connecticut

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skene, Katherine J.; Gent, Janneane F.; McKay, Lisa A.; Belanger, Kathleen; Leaderer, Brian P.; Holford, Theodore R.

    2010-12-01

    An integrated exposure model was developed that estimates nitrogen dioxide (NO 2) concentration at residences using geographic information systems (GIS) and variables derived within residential buffers representing traffic volume and landscape characteristics including land use, population density and elevation. Multiple measurements of NO 2 taken outside of 985 residences in Connecticut were used to develop the model. A second set of 120 outdoor NO 2 measurements as well as cross-validation were used to validate the model. The model suggests that approximately 67% of the variation in NO 2 levels can be explained by: traffic and land use primarily within 2 km of a residence; population density; elevation; and time of year. Potential benefits of this model for health effects research include improved spatial estimations of traffic-related pollutant exposure and reduced need for extensive pollutant measurements. The model, which could be calibrated and applied in areas other than Connecticut, has importance as a tool for exposure estimation in epidemiological studies of traffic-related air pollution.

  20. Ethnobotanical Study of Tehsil Kabal, Swat District, KPK, Pakistan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Imtiaz Ahmad

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A total of 140 plants have been reported ethnobotanically from Tehsil Kabal, Swat District. These include the 133 plants (95% of angiosperms, 3 (2.14% of gymnosperms, and 2 (1.42% each of pteridophytes and fungi. The largest family is Lamiaceae represented by 11 species followed by Rosaceae represented by 9 species. Among angiosperms 76 (55.63% were herbs, 17 (12.78% were shrubs, and 40 (30.07% were trees; 127 plants (95.48% were dicot while 6 plants (4.51% were monocot. Most of the plants were used for more than one purpose. Generally the plants were used for medicinal, fuel, timber wood, food, and fodder for cattle purposes.

  1. HIGH RESOLUTION LANDCOVER MODELLING WITH PLÉIADES IMAGERY AND DEM DATA IN SUPPORT OF FINE SCALE LANDSCAPE THERMAL MODELLING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Thompson

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available In the evaluation of air-borne thermal infrared imaging sensors, the use of simulated spectral infrared scenery is a cost-effective way to provide input to the sensor. The benefit of simulated scenes includes control over parameters governing the spectral and related thermal behaviour of the terrain as well as atmospheric conditions. Such scenes need to have a high degree of radiometric and geometric accuracy, as well as high resolution to account for small objects having different spectral and associated thermal properties. In support of this, innovative use of tri-stereo, ultra-high resolution Pléiades satellite imagery is being used to generated high detail, small scale quantitative terrain surface data to compliment comparable optical data in order to produce detailed urban and rural landscape datasets representative of different landscape features, within which spectrally defined characteristics can be subsequently matched to thermal signatures. Pléiades tri-stereo mode, acquired from the same orbit during the same pass, is particularly favourable for reaching the required metric accuracy because images are radiometrically and geometrically very homogeneous, which allows a very good radiometric matching for relief computation. The tri-stereo approach reduces noise and allows significantly enhanced relief description in landscapes where simple stereo imaging cannot see features, such as in dense urban areas or valley bottoms in steep, mountainous areas. This paper describes the datasets that have been generated for DENEL over the Hartebeespoort Dam region, west of Pretoria, South Africa. The final terrain datasets are generated by integrated modelling of both height and spectral surface characteristics within an object-based modelling environment. This approach provides an operational framework for rapid and highly accurate mapping of building and vegetation structure of wide areas, as is required in support of the evaluation of thermal

  2. Evaluation Of The Two Model Biocorridors In Soth-West Part Of Slovakia In Agricultural Landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Petra Debnáriková

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The aim of the research is to evaluate two different models of biocorridors in south-west part of Slovakia in intensively utilized agricultural landscape. The first biocorridor is a part of fragmented alluvial softwood forest along the Žitava’s river in its unregulated part in cadastral territory Horný Ohaj, district Vráble. This biocorridor should be the representative biocorridor by its structure and plant composition in its area. The second biocorridor is biocorridor composed by Robinia pseudoacacia L. in the village Báb, district Nitra. The research analyzes the structure of the selected biocorridors by using the methods of phytocoenology, evaluate functional integrity by monitoring of their spatial parameters in terrain and by processing maps in the AutoCAD program. At the base of phytocoenological report evaluates occurence of alien species.

  3. Cultural Landscapes and Neolithisation Processes: Outline of a model for the Scheldt basin (Belgium

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Erick N. Robinson

    2007-12-01

    Full Text Available Recent research has indicated the continuation of a hunting-fishing-gathering way of life in the lower Scheldt basin (Belgium for over a millennium after the first arrival of agriculture in the middle Scheldt. Current evidence suggests multiple hiatuses in cultural change from the late 6th-late 5th millennium BC. This article provides the outline of a model that seeks to explain these hiatuses from the perspective of indigenous hunter-fisher-gatherer cultural landscapes. The outline investigates the significance of palaeoecological and social contexts in relation to contact and cultural transmission processes during the transition to agriculture. Recent ethnoarchaeological research from hunter-fisher-gatherers in temperate and boreal environments is referenced as a structural analogy for illuminating the important relationship between territoriality and social mediation within hunter-gatherer groups at the Mesolithic-Neolithic interface.

  4. Wetland Restoration as a Tool for Peak Flow Mitigation: Combining Watershed Scale Modeling with a Genetic Algorithm Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dalzell, B. J.; Gassman, P. W.; Kling, C.

    2015-12-01

    In the Minnesota River Basin, sediments originating from failing stream banks and bluffs account for the majority of the riverine load and contribute to water quality impairments in the Minnesota River as well as portions of the Mississippi River upstream of Lake Pepin. One approach for mitigating this problem may be targeted wetland restoration in Minnesota River Basin tributaries in order to reduce the magnitude and duration of peak flow events which contribute to bluff and stream bank failures. In order to determine effective arrangements and properties of wetlands to achieve peak flow reduction, we are employing a genetic algorithm approach coupled with a SWAT model of the Cottonwood River, a tributary of the Minnesota River. The genetic algorithm approach will evaluate combinations of basic wetland features as represented by SWAT: surface area, volume, contributing area, and hydraulic conductivity of the wetland bottom. These wetland parameters will be weighed against economic considerations associated with land use trade-offs in this agriculturally productive landscape. Preliminary results show that the SWAT model is capable of simulating daily hydrology very well and genetic algorithm evaluation of wetland scenarios is ongoing. Anticipated results will include (1) combinations of wetland parameters that are most effective for reducing peak flows, and (2) evaluation of economic trade-offs between wetland restoration, water quality, and agricultural productivity in the Cottonwood River watershed.

  5. On Eigen's Quasispecies Model, Two-Valued Fitness Landscapes, and Isometry Groups Acting on Finite Metric Spaces.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenov, Yuri S; Novozhilov, Artem S

    2016-05-01

    A two-valued fitness landscape is introduced for the classical Eigen's quasispecies model. This fitness landscape can be considered as a direct generalization of the so-called single- or sharply peaked landscape. A general, non-permutation invariant quasispecies model is studied, and therefore the dimension of the problem is [Formula: see text], where N is the sequence length. It is shown that if the fitness function is equal to [Formula: see text] on a G-orbit A and is equal to w elsewhere, then the mean population fitness can be found as the largest root of an algebraic equation of degree at most [Formula: see text]. Here G is an arbitrary isometry group acting on the metric space of sequences of zeroes and ones of the length N with the Hamming distance. An explicit form of this exact algebraic equation is given in terms of the spherical growth function of the G-orbit A. Motivated by the analysis of the two-valued fitness landscapes, an abstract generalization of Eigen's model is introduced such that the sequences are identified with the points of a finite metric space X together with a group of isometries acting transitively on X. In particular, a simplicial analog of the original quasispecies model is discussed, which can be considered as a mathematical model of the switching of the antigenic variants for some bacteria.

  6. Application of GIS to Empirical Windthrow Risk Model in Mountain Forested Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lukas Krejci

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Norway spruce dominates mountain forests in Europe. Natural variations in the mountainous coniferous forests are strongly influenced by all the main components of forest and landscape dynamics: species diversity, the structure of forest stands, nutrient cycling, carbon storage, and other ecosystem services. This paper deals with an empirical windthrow risk model based on the integration of logistic regression into GIS to assess forest vulnerability to wind-disturbance in the mountain spruce forests of Šumava National Park (Czech Republic. It is an area where forest management has been the focus of international discussions by conservationists, forest managers, and stakeholders. The authors developed the empirical windthrow risk model, which involves designing an optimized data structure containing dependent and independent variables entering logistic regression. The results from the model, visualized in the form of map outputs, outline the probability of risk to forest stands from wind in the examined territory of the national park. Such an application of the empirical windthrow risk model could be used as a decision support tool for the mountain spruce forests in a study area. Future development of these models could be useful for other protected European mountain forests dominated by Norway spruce.

  7. A coupled human and landscape conceptual model of risk and resilience in mountain communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramirez, Jorge; Haisch, Tina; Martius, Olivia; Mayer, Heike; Ifejika Speranza, Chinwe; Keiler, Margreth

    2017-04-01

    Recent extreme natural disasters have focused the attention of the global community to society's vulnerability to these events. Simultaneously these natural disasters occur within a broader social and physical context that is interconnected and may include social upheavals, economic crises, and climate change. While progress has been made to mitigate and adapt to natural hazards, much of the existing research lacks interdisciplinary approaches that equally consider both natural and social processes. More importantly, this lack of integration between approaches remains a major challenge in developing disaster risk management plans for communities. In this study we focus on European Alpine communities that face numerous human and environmental risks and differ regarding their ability to cope with these risks and develop resilience. Herein we present a conceptual model of mountain communities exposed to socio-economic (e.g. economic downturn) and biophysical (e.g. floods) "shocks". We identify system boundaries, structure, components, and processes required to describe both human and landscape systems for mountain communities. More importantly we determine feedbacks within and between both systems. The purpose of the model is to investigate which shocks overcome the buffering capacity of mountain communities, and determine which shocks have a greater effect on mountain communities. Socioeconomic, climate, and hazard 'shock' scenarios have been developed for communities with different geographic sizes. Examples of inputs for the model and methods required to test the model are provided. Guided by the model and scenarios we discuss potential outcomes regarding community resilience.

  8. Scale-dependency of LiDAR derived terrain attributes in quantitative soil-landscape modeling: Effects of grid resolution vs. neighborhood extent

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quantifying the spatial distribution of soil properties is essential for ecological and environmental modeling at the landscape scale. Terrain attributes are one of the primary covariates in soil-landscape models due to their control on energy and mass fluxes, which in turn contr...

  9. Exploring southern African Plateau uplift with landscape evolution model inversion and erosion history data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Jessica; Braun, Jean; Flowers, Rebecca; Guillocheau, François; Robin, Cécile; Baby, Guillaume

    2017-04-01

    The southern African plateau is a dominant feature of African topography but there is considerable debate about when and how it formed. Cretaceous kimberlite activity and the presence of a large low shear seismic velocity province (LLSVP) in the deep mantle below southern Africa have lead many to propose uplift related to mantle processes. Better constraints on the timing of uplift have the potential to constrain the nature of the LLSVP and the source of support for southern Africa's anomalous elevations. However, surface uplift is difficult to detect directly in the geologic record and the relationships between mantle-sourced uplift and erosion are not necessarily direct. Here, we use a landscape evolution model combined with data constraining the spatiotemporal erosion patterns across southern Africa to explore how topographic development and erosion are related. This is an ideal location to utilize this approach because several recent studies have helped to constrain the erosion history of this region over different spatial and temporal scales but the uplift history is still widely debated. We integrate a highly efficient landscape evolution model (FastScape, Braun and Willett, 2013) and a thermal module with a large low temperature thermochronology dataset, sedimentary flux volumes for the major offshore basins, and geologic observations to address these questions. We used inversion methods based on the Neighborhood Algorithm to investigate how data is best simulated by the model while varying model parameters related to plateau uplift and the physical characteristics of the eroding material. This is a powerful approach because we are able to compare model outputs to many aspects of topographic shape and constraints on the erosion history simultaneously. Results from the inversions show that the data are sufficient to constrain many model parameters. Additionally, we show that the combination of different types of data, and in particular the spatiotemporal

  10. Modeling DNA affinity landscape through two-round support vector regression with weighted degree kernels

    KAUST Repository

    Wang, Xiaolei

    2014-12-12

    Background: A quantitative understanding of interactions between transcription factors (TFs) and their DNA binding sites is key to the rational design of gene regulatory networks. Recent advances in high-throughput technologies have enabled high-resolution measurements of protein-DNA binding affinity. Importantly, such experiments revealed the complex nature of TF-DNA interactions, whereby the effects of nucleotide changes on the binding affinity were observed to be context dependent. A systematic method to give high-quality estimates of such complex affinity landscapes is, thus, essential to the control of gene expression and the advance of synthetic biology. Results: Here, we propose a two-round prediction method that is based on support vector regression (SVR) with weighted degree (WD) kernels. In the first round, a WD kernel with shifts and mismatches is used with SVR to detect the importance of subsequences with different lengths at different positions. The subsequences identified as important in the first round are then fed into a second WD kernel to fit the experimentally measured affinities. To our knowledge, this is the first attempt to increase the accuracy of the affinity prediction by applying two rounds of string kernels and by identifying a small number of crucial k-mers. The proposed method was tested by predicting the binding affinity landscape of Gcn4p in Saccharomyces cerevisiae using datasets from HiTS-FLIP. Our method explicitly identified important subsequences and showed significant performance improvements when compared with other state-of-the-art methods. Based on the identified important subsequences, we discovered two surprisingly stable 10-mers and one sensitive 10-mer which were not reported before. Further test on four other TFs in S. cerevisiae demonstrated the generality of our method. Conclusion: We proposed in this paper a two-round method to quantitatively model the DNA binding affinity landscape. Since the ability to modify

  11. Comparison of the sensitivity of landscape-fire-succession models to variation in terrain, fuel pattern, climate and weather.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geoffrey J. Cary; Robert E. Keane; Robert H. Gardner; Sandra Lavorel; Mike D. Flannigan; Ian D. Davies; Chao Li; James M. Lenihan; T. Scott Rupp; Florent. Mouillot

    2006-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to compare the sensitivity of nlodelled area burned to environmental factors across a range of independently-developed landscape-fire-succession models. The sensitivity of area burned to variation in four factors, namely terrain (flat, undulating and mountainous), fuel pattern (finely and coarsely clumped), climate (observed, warmer &...

  12. A comparative framework to infer landscape effects on population genetic structure: Are habitat suitability models effective in explaining gene flow?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maria C. Mateo-Sanchez; Niko Balkenhol; Samuel Cushman; Trinidad Perez; Ana Dominguez; Santiago Saura

    2015-01-01

    Most current methods to assess connectivity begin with landscape resistance maps. The prevailing resistance models are commonly based on expert opinion and, more recently, on a direct transformation of habitat suitability. However, habitat associations are not necessarily accurate indicators of dispersal, and thus may fail as a surrogate of resistance to...

  13. Epidemiological modeling of invasion in heterogeneous landscapes: Spread of sudden oak death in California (1990-2030)

    Science.gov (United States)

    R.K. Meentemeyer; N.J. Cunniffe; A.R. Cook; J.A.N. Filipe; R.D. Hunter; D.M. Rizzo; C.A. Gilligan

    2011-01-01

    The spread of emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) in natural environments poses substantial risks to biodiversity and ecosystem function. As EIDs and their impacts grow, landscape- to regional-scale models of disease dynamics are increasingly needed for quantitative prediction of epidemic outcomes and design of practicable strategies for control. Here we use spatio-...

  14. Modeling relationships between landscape-level attributes and snorkel counts of chinook salmon and steelhead parr in Idaho

    Science.gov (United States)

    William L. Thompson; Danny C. Lee

    2000-01-01

    Knowledge of environmental factors impacting anadromous salmonids in their freshwater habitats, particularly at large spatial scales, may be important for restoring them to previously recorded levels in the northwestern United States. Consequently, we used existing data sets and an information-theoretic approach to model landscape-level attributes and snorkel count...

  15. Effect of spatial forcing data and landscape heterogeneity on performance and consistency of model structures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Euser, Tanja; Winsemius, Hessel; Hrachowitz, Markus; Savenije, Hubert

    2014-05-01

    One of the main questions in hydrological modelling is how to design conceptual rainfall-runoff models with a higher degree of realism. It is expected that if models have a higher degree of realism, their predictive power will increase. One frequently discussed option is the use of more spatial information, which is increasingly available. Information with spatial variability can be found for example for forcing data, elevation, land use, etc. The abundance of spatially variable data requires the modeller to carefully select which data add realism to the model and which data only add complexity. An additional complication is further that the spatial detail required is a function of the time scales of the forcing data and the required output. The amount of spatially variable data available can guide the choice of an adequate distribution level of a model. As it is often difficult to determine the most suitable level of distribution for a certain catchment, this study systematically evaluates the value of incorporating distributed forcing data and distributed model structures in a stepwise approach for the Ourthe catchment (Belgium). The distribution of the model structures is based on landscape heterogeneity, using both elevation data and land use data. Eight different model configurations are tested: a lumped and a distributed model structure, each with lumped and stepwise distributed fluxes and stocks. To stepwise distribute the fluxes and stocks, the distributed forcing data is sequentially kept distributed for each reservoir of the model. To compare the degree of realism of the different configurations, both model performance and consistency are compared. Performance describes the ability of a model configuration to mimic a specific part of the hydrological behaviour in a specific catchment. Consistency describes the ability of a model configuration to adequately reproduce several hydrological signatures simultaneously. FARM (Framework to Assess the Realism of

  16. Handbook on advances in remote sensing and geographic information systems paradigms and applications in forest landscape modeling

    CERN Document Server

    Favorskaya, Margarita N

    2017-01-01

    This book presents the latest advances in remote-sensing and geographic information systems and applications. It is divided into four parts, focusing on Airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) and Optical Measurements of Forests; Individual Tree Modelling; Landscape Scene Modelling; and Forest Eco-system Modelling. Given the scope of its coverage, the book offers a valuable resource for students, researchers, practitioners, and educators interested in remote sensing and geographic information systems and applications.

  17. Performance of salsnes water to algae treatment (swat) technology in a continuous mode for high algae recovery

    OpenAIRE

    Ramos Barragán, Germán

    2014-01-01

    Master's thesis in Environmental technology. *KAR OK,.KONF MAI 2016* Many researchers consider efficient harvesting is the major bottleneck in cost efficient production of microalgae, contributing 20 – 30 % to total production cost. This thesis is the conclusion of a two years research project to develop Salsnes Water to Algae Treatment (SWAT) harvesting technology. SWAT uses two main processes: flocculation and filtration. The SWAT objectives were achieved, 95 % algae removal and p...

  18. From Particles and Point Clouds to Voxel Models: High Resolution Modeling of Dynamic Landscapes in Open Source GIS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitasova, H.; Hardin, E. J.; Kratochvilova, A.; Landa, M.

    2012-12-01

    Multitemporal data acquired by modern mapping technologies provide unique insights into processes driving land surface dynamics. These high resolution data also offer an opportunity to improve the theoretical foundations and accuracy of process-based simulations of evolving landforms. We discuss development of new generation of visualization and analytics tools for GRASS GIS designed for 3D multitemporal data from repeated lidar surveys and from landscape process simulations. We focus on data and simulation methods that are based on point sampling of continuous fields and lead to representation of evolving surfaces as series of raster map layers or voxel models. For multitemporal lidar data we present workflows that combine open source point cloud processing tools with GRASS GIS and custom python scripts to model and analyze dynamics of coastal topography (Figure 1) and we outline development of coastal analysis toolbox. The simulations focus on particle sampling method for solving continuity equations and its application for geospatial modeling of landscape processes. In addition to water and sediment transport models, already implemented in GIS, the new capabilities under development combine OpenFOAM for wind shear stress simulation with a new module for aeolian sand transport and dune evolution simulations. Comparison of observed dynamics with the results of simulations is supported by a new, integrated 2D and 3D visualization interface that provides highly interactive and intuitive access to the redesigned and enhanced visualization tools. Several case studies will be used to illustrate the presented methods and tools and demonstrate the power of workflows built with FOSS and highlight their interoperability.Figure 1. Isosurfaces representing evolution of shoreline and a z=4.5m contour between the years 1997-2011at Cape Hatteras, NC extracted from a voxel model derived from series of lidar-based DEMs.

  19. Gene flow in complex landscapes: Testing multiple hypotheses with causal modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samuel A. Cushman; Kevin S. McKelvey; Jim Hayden; Michael K. Schwartz

    2006-01-01

    Predicting population-level effects of landscape change depends on identifying factors that influence population connectivity in complex landscapes. However, most putative movement corridors and barriers have not been based on empirical data. In this study, we identify factors that influence connectivity by comparing patterns of genetic similarity among 146 black bears...

  20. Assessing public concern for landscape quality: a potential model to identify visual thresholds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arthur W. Magill

    1990-01-01

    Considerable public criticism and sometimes legal obstructions have been directed toward landscape management in relation to the extraction of natural resources. Many managers do not understand public concerns for visually attractive resources. Managers need to know when landscape alterations, like clearcuts, attract public attention and become visually objectionable....

  1. pH landscapes in a novel five-species model of early dental biofilm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sebastian Schlafer

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Despite continued preventive efforts, dental caries remains the most common disease of man. Organic acids produced by microorganisms in dental plaque play a crucial role for the development of carious lesions. During early stages of the pathogenetic process, repeated pH drops induce changes in microbial composition and favour the establishment of an increasingly acidogenic and aciduric microflora. The complex structure of dental biofilms, allowing for a multitude of different ecological environments in close proximity, remains largely unexplored. In this study, we designed a laboratory biofilm model that mimics the bacterial community present during early acidogenic stages of the caries process. We then performed a time-resolved microscopic analysis of the extracellular pH landscape at the interface between bacterial biofilm and underlying substrate. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Strains of Streptococcus oralis, Streptococcus sanguinis, Streptococcus mitis, Streptococcus downei and Actinomyces naeslundii were employed in the model. Biofilms were grown in flow channels that allowed for direct microscopic analysis of the biofilms in situ. The architecture and composition of the biofilms were analysed using fluorescence in situ hybridization and confocal laser scanning microscopy. Both biofilm structure and composition were highly reproducible and showed similarity to in-vivo-grown dental plaque. We employed the pH-sensitive ratiometric probe C-SNARF-4 to perform real-time microscopic analyses of the biofilm pH in response to salivary solutions containing glucose. Anaerobic glycolysis in the model biofilms created a mildly acidic environment. Decrease in pH in different areas of the biofilms varied, and distinct extracellular pH-microenvironments were conserved over several hours. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The designed biofilm model represents a promising tool to determine the effect of potential therapeutic agents on biofilm growth

  2. Integrating ecophysiology and forest landscape models to improve projections of drought effects under climate change.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J; De Bruijn, Arjan M G; Pangle, Robert E; Limousin, Jean-Marc; McDowell, Nate G; Pockman, William T; Sturtevant, Brian R; Muss, Jordan D; Kubiske, Mark E

    2015-02-01

    Fundamental drivers of ecosystem processes such as temperature and precipitation are rapidly changing and creating novel environmental conditions. Forest landscape models (FLM) are used by managers and policy-makers to make projections of future ecosystem dynamics under alternative management or policy options, but the links between the fundamental drivers and projected responses are weak and indirect, limiting their reliability for projecting the impacts of climate change. We developed and tested a relatively mechanistic method to simulate the effects of changing precipitation on species competition within the LANDIS-II FLM. Using data from a field precipitation manipulation experiment in a piñon pine (Pinus edulis) and juniper (Juniperus monosperma) ecosystem in New Mexico (USA), we calibrated our model to measurements from ambient control plots and tested predictions under the drought and irrigation treatments against empirical measurements. The model successfully predicted behavior of physiological variables under the treatments. Discrepancies between model output and empirical data occurred when the monthly time step of the model failed to capture the short-term dynamics of the ecosystem as recorded by instantaneous field measurements. We applied the model to heuristically assess the effect of alternative climate scenarios on the piñon-juniper ecosystem and found that warmer and drier climate reduced productivity and increased the risk of drought-induced mortality, especially for piñon. We concluded that the direct links between fundamental drivers and growth rates in our model hold great promise to improve our understanding of ecosystem processes under climate change and improve management decisions because of its greater reliance on first principles. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

  3. Managing landscape connectivity for a fragmented area using spatial analysis model at town scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Shiliang; Dong, Yuhong; Fu, Wei; Zhang, Zhaoling

    2009-10-01

    Urban growth has great effect on land uses of its suburbs. The habitat loss and fragmentation in those areas are a main threat to conservation of biodiversity. Enhancing landscape functional connectivity is usually an effective way to maintain high biodiversity level in disturbed area. Taking a small town in Beijing as an example, we designed potential landscape corridors based on identification of landscape element quality and "least-cost" path analysis. We described a general approach to establish the corridor network in such fragmented area at town scale. The results showed that landscape elements position has various effects on landscape suitability. Small forest patches and other green lands such as meadow, shrub, even farmland could be a potential stepping-stone or corridor for animal movements. Also, the analysis reveals that critical areas should be managed to facilitate the movement of dispersers among habitat patches.

  4. Exploring the free energy landscape of a model β-hairpin peptide and its isoform.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Narayanan, Chitra; Dias, Cristiano L

    2014-10-01

    Secondary structural transitions from α-helix to β-sheet conformations are observed in several misfolding diseases including Alzheimer's and Parkinson's. Determining factors contributing favorably to the formation of each of these secondary structures is therefore essential to better understand these disease states. β-hairpin peptides form basic components of anti-parallel β-sheets and are suitable model systems for characterizing the fundamental forces stabilizing β-sheets in fibrillar structures. In this study, we explore the free energy landscape of the model β-hairpin peptide GB1 and its E2 isoform that preferentially adopts α-helical conformations at ambient conditions. Umbrella sampling simulations using all-atom models and explicit solvent are performed over a large range of end-to-end distances. Our results show the strong preference of GB1 and the E2 isoform for β-hairpin and α-helical conformations, respectively, consistent with previous studies. We show that the unfolded states of GB1 are largely populated by misfolded β-hairpin structures which differ from each other in the position of the β-turn. We discuss the energetic factors contributing favorably to the formation of α-helix and β-hairpin conformations in these peptides and highlight the energetic role of hydrogen bonds and non-bonded interactions. © 2014 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  5. Process-based modelling of the methane balance in periglacial landscapes (JSBACH-methane)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Sonja; Göckede, Mathias; Castro-Morales, Karel; Knoblauch, Christian; Ekici, Altug; Kleinen, Thomas; Zubrzycki, Sebastian; Sachs, Torsten; Wille, Christian; Beer, Christian

    2017-01-01

    A detailed process-based methane module for a global land surface scheme has been developed which is general enough to be applied in permafrost regions as well as wetlands outside permafrost areas. Methane production, oxidation and transport by ebullition, diffusion and plants are represented. In this model, oxygen has been explicitly incorporated into diffusion, transport by plants and two oxidation processes, of which one uses soil oxygen, while the other uses oxygen that is available via roots. Permafrost and wetland soils show special behaviour, such as variable soil pore space due to freezing and thawing or water table depths due to changing soil water content. This has been integrated directly into the methane-related processes. A detailed application at the Samoylov polygonal tundra site, Lena River Delta, Russia, is used for evaluation purposes. The application at Samoylov also shows differences in the importance of the several transport processes and in the methane dynamics under varying soil moisture, ice and temperature conditions during different seasons and on different microsites. These microsites are the elevated moist polygonal rim and the depressed wet polygonal centre. The evaluation shows sufficiently good agreement with field observations despite the fact that the module has not been specifically calibrated to these data. This methane module is designed such that the advanced land surface scheme is able to model recent and future methane fluxes from periglacial landscapes across scales. In addition, the methane contribution to carbon cycle-climate feedback mechanisms can be quantified when running coupled to an atmospheric model.

  6. Epigenomic Landscapes of hESC-Derived Neural Rosettes: Modeling Neural Tube Formation and Diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valensisi, Cristina; Andrus, Colin; Buckberry, Sam; Doni Jayavelu, Naresh; Lund, Riikka J; Lister, Ryan; Hawkins, R David

    2017-08-08

    We currently lack a comprehensive understanding of the mechanisms underlying neural tube formation and their contributions to neural tube defects (NTDs). Developing a model to study such a complex morphogenetic process, especially one that models human-specific aspects, is critical. Three-dimensional, human embryonic stem cell (hESC)-derived neural rosettes (NRs) provide a powerful resource for in vitro modeling of human neural tube formation. Epigenomic maps reveal enhancer elements unique to NRs relative to 2D systems. A master regulatory network illustrates that key NR properties are related to their epigenomic landscapes. We found that folate-associated DNA methylation changes were enriched within NR regulatory elements near genes involved in neural tube formation and metabolism. Our comprehensive regulatory maps offer insights into the mechanisms by which folate may prevent NTDs. Lastly, our distal regulatory maps provide a better understanding of the potential role of neurological-disorder-associated SNPs. Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. GEOGRAPHY IN CHILDHOOD FOR THE VISUALLY IMPAIRED STUDENTS: the use of a multi-sensorial landscape model for the learning of the landscape concept

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luciana Maria Santos de Arruda

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The teaching of Geography for the visually impaired students needs to be re-contextualized so that this leaner may build up his knowledge through multi sensorial experiences, in which the other senses may be used. Rethinking the teaching of Geography for the visually impaired students regarding the landscape concept, from a sensorial experience, makes possible to build the concept through a dimension of textures, smell, sounds, and flavors, being necessary to exploit touch, smell, hearing and taste. This article aims to present multi-sensorial didactic material using the experiences lived by students in the landscape of the Institute Benjamin Constant (IBC. By means of sensorial activities, didactic materials were built so as to help students in the understanding of the landscape concept and enabling the use of the senses. In order to do so, IBC itself was one of the starting points for the observations that were made. As a result, four sensorial materials were obtained. However, in this article a multi-sensorial model was used to work the landscape concept with the blind students of the first year, searching to go through situations with these students that favored the concept of construction in them. The theoretical reference for the research was based on Tuan (2012 and Soler (1999, considering the multi-sensorial landscape and on Lopes (2010 concerning Geography and childhood. O Ensino de Geografia para alunos com Deficiência Visual, precisa ser recontextualizado para que esses educandos possam construir seus conhecimentos através de experiências multissensoriais, nas quais os outros sentidos sejam utilizados. Repensar o Ensino de Geografia para alunos com Deficiência Visual no que tange ao conceito de paisagem, a partir de uma vivência sensorial, torna-se possível por meio da construção do conceito através de uma dimensão de texturas, aromas, sons e sabores, sendo necessário explorar o tato, o olfato, a audição e o paladar. Esse

  8. LandSoil, a model for evaluating soil erosion on mid-term agricultural landscape evolution: Sensitivity analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciampalini, R.; Cheviron, B.; Follain, S.; Le Bissonnais, Y.

    2012-04-01

    Soil-landscape evolution modelling is a widespread research topic; many models have been developed to analyse space-time dynamics in soil redistribution processes. Such modelling presumes both to use precision input data and affordable models able to model different land use scenarios and climatic variations. Based on this context, we tested the LandSoil model (Landscape design for Soil conservation under soil use and climate change) for sensitivity analysis. This model is designed for the analysis of agricultural landscape evolution at a fine spatial resolution scale [1-10 meters] and a mid-term temporal scale [10-100 years]. It is spatially distributed, event-based, and considers water and tillage erosion processes. Specificity of the model is to have dynamic representation of the agricultural landscape with a monthly representation of soil surface properties and to account for the climate component directly in rainfall events. Sensitivity analysis (SA) is a classical tool for the evaluation of the model's reaction to the different input variables. We investigated local SA of the model to rainfall inputs, related hydrological fluxes and specific erosion parameters responsible for diffusion and concentrated soil erosion. Tests analysed multiple combinations of rain amounts and intensities, as well as different runoff conditions within the soil parameter space using the one-at-a-time and Latin-Hypercube resampling methods. Sensitivity to spatial distributions of erosion parameters was calculated as an index of numerical spread of soil loss results obtained at the outlet of virtual catchment endowed with a fixed flow network. The study furnished a ranking of the parameters' sensitivity and provides evidence that some discontinuities in response are due to the non-linearity in parameterisations.

  9. Development of a Hydrologic Connectivity Dataset for SWAT Assessments in the US

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J. White

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Model-based water quality assessments are an important informer of conservation and environmental policy in the U.S. The recently completed national scale Conservation Effects Assessment Project (CEAP is being replicated using an improved model populated with new and higher resolution data. National assessments are particularly difficult as models must operate with both a very large spatial extent (the contiguous U.S. while maintaining a level of granularity required to capture important small scale processes. In this research, we developed datasets to describe the hydrologic connectivity at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS 12-digit Hydrologic Unit Code (HUC-12 level. Connectivity between 86,000 HUC-12s as provided by the Watershed Boundary Dataset (WBD was evaluated and corrected. We also detailed a method to resolve the highly detailed National Hydrography Dataset (NHD stream segments within each HUC-12 into vastly simplified representative channel schemes suitable for use in the recently developed Soil and Water Assessment Tool + (SWAT+ model. This representative channel approach strikes a balance between computational complexity and accurate representation of the hydrologic system. These data will be tested in the upcoming CEAP II national assessment. Until then, all the WBD corrections and NHDPlus representative channel data are provided via the web for other researchers to evaluate and utilize.

  10. A Community Landscape Model of Pro-Environmental Behavior: The Effects of Landscape and Community Interaction on Residential Energy Behaviors in Two Pennsylvania Towns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mainzer, Stephen P.

    We are using more energy every year. Between 2001 and 2011, Pennsylvania residential electricity sales increased by two and a half times the number of new customers, accounting for almost one third of the state's total electricity consumption. Our ability to meet demand by acquiring new energy sources faces several challenges. Confusion surrounds the physical and economic accessibility of remaining fossil fuel sources. Immense land use requirements and subsequent environmental impacts challenge a total shift to renewable energy sources. The laws of thermodynamics limit the potential for new technology to efficiently convert raw energy to consumable sources. As a result, any rational strategy to meet future energy demands must involve conservation. Conservation is a pro-environmental behavior, an act intended to benefit the environment surrounding a person. I posit that a transdisciplinary model, the community landscape model of the pro-environmental behavior, unifies the conceptually analogous - yet disparate - fields of landscape, community, and behavior towards explaining residential energy conservation actions. Specifically, the study attempted to describe links between the physical environment, social environment, and conservation behaviors through a mixed-method framework. Two Pennsylvania townships - Spring and East Buffalo townships - were selected from an analysis of housing, electricity consumption, and land cover trends. Key informants from both townships informed the design of a survey instrument that captured the utility consumption, residential conservation actions, energy and environmental values, types and levels of community engagement, perceived barriers, and socio-demographic information from 107 randomly selected households. A mixed-method analysis produced evidence that place-based values and intention to participate in the community were significantly linked to lower utility consumption in households. People who cared deeply about their town

  11. A spatially explicit model of functional connectivity for the endangered Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii in a patchy landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chunlin Li

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Habitat fragmentation, associated with human population expansion, impedes dispersal, reduces gene flow and aggravates inbreeding in species on the brink of extinction. Both scientific and conservation communities increasingly realize that maintaining and restoring landscape connectivity is of vital importance in biodiversity conservation. Prior to any conservation initiatives, it is helpful to present conservation practitioners with a spatially explicit model of functional connectivity for the target species or landscape. METHODOLOGY/PRINCIPAL FINDINGS: Using Przewalski's gazelle (Procapra przewalskii as a model of endangered ungulate species in highly fragmented landscape, we present a model providing spatially explicit information to inform the long-term preservation of well-connected metapopulations. We employed a Geographic Information System (GIS and expert-literature method to create a habitat suitability map, to identify potential habitats and to delineate a functional connectivity network (least-cost movement corridors and paths for the gazelle. Results indicated that there were limited suitable habitats for the gazelle, mainly found to the north and northwest of the Qinghai Lake where four of five potential habitat patches were identified. Fifteen pairs of least-cost corridors and paths were mapped connecting eleven extant populations and two neighboring potential patches. The least-cost paths ranged from 0.2 km to 26.8 km in length (averaging 12.4 km and were all longer than corresponding Euclidean distances. CONCLUSIONS/SIGNIFICANCE: The model outputs were validated and supported by the latest findings in landscape genetics of the species, and may provide impetus for connectivity conservation programs. Dispersal barriers were examined and appropriate mitigation strategies were suggested. This study provides conservation practitioners with thorough and visualized information to reserve the landscape connectivity for

  12. Linking landscape characteristics to local grizzly bear abundance using multiple detection methods in a hierarchical model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Graves, T.A.; Kendall, Katherine C.; Royle, J. Andrew; Stetz, J.B.; Macleod, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    Few studies link habitat to grizzly bear Ursus arctos abundance and these have not accounted for the variation in detection or spatial autocorrelation. We collected and genotyped bear hair in and around Glacier National Park in northwestern Montana during the summer of 2000. We developed a hierarchical Markov chain Monte Carlo model that extends the existing occupancy and count models by accounting for (1) spatially explicit variables that we hypothesized might influence abundance; (2) separate sub-models of detection probability for two distinct sampling methods (hair traps and rub trees) targeting different segments of the population; (3) covariates to explain variation in each sub-model of detection; (4) a conditional autoregressive term to account for spatial autocorrelation; (5) weights to identify most important variables. Road density and per cent mesic habitat best explained variation in female grizzly bear abundance; spatial autocorrelation was not supported. More female bears were predicted in places with lower road density and with more mesic habitat. Detection rates of females increased with rub tree sampling effort. Road density best explained variation in male grizzly bear abundance and spatial autocorrelation was supported. More male bears were predicted in areas of low road density. Detection rates of males increased with rub tree and hair trap sampling effort and decreased over the sampling period. We provide a new method to (1) incorporate multiple detection methods into hierarchical models of abundance; (2) determine whether spatial autocorrelation should be included in final models. Our results suggest that the influence of landscape variables is consistent between habitat selection and abundance in this system.

  13. Modelling the landscape of palliative care for people with dementia: a European mixed methods study

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background Palliative care for people with dementia is often sub-optimal. This is partly because of the challenging nature of dementia itself, and partly because of system failings that are particularly salient in primary care and community services. There is a need to systematize palliative care for people with dementia, to clarify where changes in practice could be made. To develop a model of palliative care for people with dementia that captures commonalities and differences across Europe, a technology development approach was adopted, using mixed methods including 1) critical synthesis of the research literature and policy documents, 2) interviews with national experts in policy, service organisation, service delivery, patient and carer interests, and research in palliative care, and 3) nominal groups of researchers tasked with synthesising data and modelling palliative care. Discussion A generic model of palliative care, into which quality indicators can be embedded. The proposed model includes features deemed important for the systematisation of palliative care for people with dementia. These are: the division of labour amongst practitioners of different disciplines; the structure and function of care planning; the management of rising risk and increasing complexity; boundaries between disease-modifying treatment and palliative care and between palliative and end-of-life care; and the process of bereavement. Summary The co-design approach to developing a generic model of palliative care for people with dementia has placed the person needing palliative care within a landscape of services and professional disciplines. This model will be explored further in the intervention phase of the IMPACT project. PMID:23937891

  14. Modelling the landscape of palliative care for people with dementia: a European mixed methods study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iliffe, Steve; Davies, Nathan; Vernooij-Dassen, Myrra; van Riet Paap, Jasper; Sommerbakk, Ragni; Mariani, Elena; Jaspers, Birgit; Radbruch, Lukas; Manthorpe, Jill; Maio, Laura; Haugen, Dagny; Engels, Yvonne

    2013-08-12

    Palliative care for people with dementia is often sub-optimal. This is partly because of the challenging nature of dementia itself, and partly because of system failings that are particularly salient in primary care and community services. There is a need to systematize palliative care for people with dementia, to clarify where changes in practice could be made.To develop a model of palliative care for people with dementia that captures commonalities and differences across Europe, a technology development approach was adopted, using mixed methods including 1) critical synthesis of the research literature and policy documents, 2) interviews with national experts in policy, service organisation, service delivery, patient and carer interests, and research in palliative care, and 3) nominal groups of researchers tasked with synthesising data and modelling palliative care. A generic model of palliative care, into which quality indicators can be embedded. The proposed model includes features deemed important for the systematisation of palliative care for people with dementia. These are: the division of labour amongst practitioners of different disciplines; the structure and function of care planning; the management of rising risk and increasing complexity; boundaries between disease-modifying treatment and palliative care and between palliative and end-of-life care; and the process of bereavement. The co-design approach to developing a generic model of palliative care for people with dementia has placed the person needing palliative care within a landscape of services and professional disciplines. This model will be explored further in the intervention phase of the IMPACT project.

  15. Modelling the effects of plant facilitation-competition mechanisms on semiarid landscape co-evolution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saco, Patricia M.

    2015-04-01

    Semiarid landscapes function as tightly coupled systems with strong biogeomorphic feedbacks. Worldwide, a vast portion of these areas are covered by patchy vegetation consisting of mixed herbaceous and woody plant species that interact exhibiting both competition and facilitation effects. Though the role of facilitative interactions in plant communities has received considerable attention in the last two decades, their effects on the coevolution of landscapes are still not clearly understood. Here a modelling framework is used to investigate the effects of facilitative interactions among vegetation species, as well as their role on the coevolution of water redistribution, vegetation patterns, and landforms. The model simulates the dynamics of and interactions between coexisting grasses and shrubs under varying competition-facilitation conditions. We explore facilitation effects associated with changes in micro environmental conditions for water availability in dry environments focussing on the role of infiltration enhancement and shading effects. Field experiments have shown that in many semiarid environments vegetation enhances infiltration. However, herbaceous and woody plants seem to have varying hydrologic traits in different areas and it is therefore not clear which species has the greatest contribution to infiltration enhancement. This study tests alternative hypothesis, varying the relative contributions to total infiltration of both species, through a sensitivity analysis of the key parameters affecting infiltration. We analyze the results by examining the simulated spatial patterns of biomass density, soil moisture and erosion. Results indicate that final vegetation cover structure and hydrologic connectivity strongly depend on the facilitation mechanisms included in the model. We find that the removal of woody species can lead to alternative steady states, including an increase on herbaceous cover, which is the expected outcome of these management

  16. Process based modelling of soil organic carbon redistribution on landscape scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindewolf, Marcus; Seher, Wiebke; Amorim, Amorim S. S.; Maeso, Daniel L.; Jürgen, Schmidt

    2014-05-01

    Recent studies have pointed out the great importance of erosion processes in global carbon cycling. Continuous erosion leads to a massive loss of top soils including the loss of organic carbon accumulated over long time in the soil humus fraction. Lal (2003) estimates that 20% of the organic carbon eroded with top soils is emitted into atmosphere, due to aggregate breakdown and carbon mineralization during transport by surface runoff. Furthermore soil erosion causes a progressive decrease of natural soil fertility, since cation exchange capacity is associated with organic colloids. As a consequence the ability of soils to accumulate organic carbon is reduced proportionately to the drop in soil productivity. The colluvial organic carbon might be protected from further degradation depending on the depth of the colluvial cover and local decomposing conditions. Some colluvial sites can act as long-term sinks for organic carbon. The erosional transport of organic carbon may have an effect on the global carbon budget, however, it is uncertain, whether erosion is a sink or a source for carbon in the atmosphere. Another part of eroded soils and organic carbon will enter surface water bodies and might be transported over long distances. These sediments might be deposited in the riparian zones of river networks. Erosional losses of organic carbon will not pass over into atmosphere for the most part. But soil erosion limits substantially the potential of soils to sequester atmospheric CO2 by generating humus. The present study refers to lateral carbon flux modelling on landscape scale using the process based EROSION 3D soil loss simulation model, using existing parameter values. The selective nature of soil erosion results in a preferentially transport of fine particles while less carbonic larger particles remain on site. Consequently organic carbon is enriched in the eroded sediment compared to the origin soil. For this reason it is essential that EROSION 3D provides the

  17. Evaluating Weather Research and Forecasting Model Sensitivity to Land and Soil Conditions Representative of Karst Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnson, Christopher M.; Fan, Xingang; Mahmood, Rezaul; Groves, Chris; Polk, Jason S.; Yan, Jun

    2017-10-01

    Due to their particular physiographic, geomorphic, soil cover, and complex surface-subsurface hydrologic conditions, karst regions produce distinct land-atmosphere interactions. It has been found that floods and droughts over karst regions can be more pronounced than those in non-karst regions following a given rainfall event. Five convective weather events are simulated using the Weather Research and Forecasting model to explore the potential impacts of land-surface conditions on weather simulations over karst regions. Since no existing weather or climate model has the ability to represent karst landscapes, simulation experiments in this exploratory study consist of a control (default land-cover/soil types) and three land-surface conditions, including barren ground, forest, and sandy soils over the karst areas, which mimic certain karst characteristics. Results from sensitivity experiments are compared with the control simulation, as well as with the National Centers for Environmental Prediction multi-sensor precipitation analysis Stage-IV data, and near-surface atmospheric observations. Mesoscale features of surface energy partition, surface water and energy exchange, the resulting surface-air temperature and humidity, and low-level instability and convective energy are analyzed to investigate the potential land-surface impact on weather over karst regions. We conclude that: (1) barren ground used over karst regions has a pronounced effect on the overall simulation of precipitation. Barren ground provides the overall lowest root-mean-square errors and bias scores in precipitation over the peak-rain periods. Contingency table-based equitable threat and frequency bias scores suggest that the barren and forest experiments are more successful in simulating light to moderate rainfall. Variables dependent on local surface conditions show stronger contrasts between karst and non-karst regions than variables dominated by large-scale synoptic systems; (2) significant

  18. Po'ouli landscape bioinformatics models predict energetics, behavior, diets, and distribution on Maui.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, W P; Vakharia, N; Klousie, W D; Duffy, D

    2006-12-01

    This study uses a spatially explicit microclimate/biophysical approach to examine the potential distribution of the Po'ouli on Maui to find either new habitats to search for existence or refine search efforts in previously occupied areas. We used specific physiological and behavioral ecology bird data, and Po'ouli morphological and spectral data obtained from museum specimens to address ecological and conservation-related questions about the Po'ouli that are otherwise very difficult to quantify. Laboratory and field tested microclimate and biophysical-behavioral animal computer models were integrated with remote sensing technologies. To show that the generic microclimate and endotherm models can predict metabolic and water loss requirements of Hawaiian Honeycreepers, we used the 2 species with known physiological properties, the Hawaiian Amakihi, Hemignathus virens, and the Hawaiian Anianiau, Hemignathus parvus. Predictions were within experimental measurement error of the laboratory measurements. Then using field rather than laboratory conditions as input data, we predict the field distribution of the Amakihi on Maui as the first spatial test of the models applied to birds. Results are consistent with Amakihi field distribution data. Fossils show that the Po'ouli once lived on Maui at low elevations in dry/mesic habitats on a likely diet of native tree snails and insects. The arrival of lethal mosquito-borne avian malaria in Hawaii exterminated low elevation Po'ouli forcing a population shift to mountain rainforests and possibly a snail diet instead of insects. To explore the maximum consequences of such a diet shift we assumed exclusive diets of snails versus insects at both low and high elevations. Snail diets require ∼4 times higher foraging rates than do insect diets, making a predominantly snail diet an unlikely prospect for the Po'ouli. Landscape scale simulations suggest that a snail diet would force a Po'ouli distribution inconsistent with observations

  19. Developing and exploring a theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channels for use in landscape evolution models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langston, Abigail L.; Tucker, Gregory E.

    2018-01-01

    Understanding how a bedrock river erodes its banks laterally is a frontier in geomorphology. Theories for the vertical incision of bedrock channels are widely implemented in the current generation of landscape evolution models. However, in general existing models do not seek to implement the lateral migration of bedrock channel walls. This is problematic, as modeling geomorphic processes such as terrace formation and hillslope-channel coupling depends on the accurate simulation of valley widening. We have developed and implemented a theory for the lateral migration of bedrock channel walls in a catchment-scale landscape evolution model. Two model formulations are presented, one representing the slow process of widening a bedrock canyon and the other representing undercutting, slumping, and rapid downstream sediment transport that occurs in softer bedrock. Model experiments were run with a range of values for bedrock erodibility and tendency towards transport- or detachment-limited behavior and varying magnitudes of sediment flux and water discharge in order to determine the role that each plays in the development of wide bedrock valleys. The results show that this simple, physics-based theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channels produces bedrock valleys that are many times wider than the grid discretization scale. This theory for the lateral erosion of bedrock channel walls and the numerical implementation of the theory in a catchment-scale landscape evolution model is a significant first step towards understanding the factors that control the rates and spatial extent of wide bedrock valleys.

  20. Use of output from high-resolution atmospheric models in landscape-scale hydrologic models: An assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hostetler, S.W.; Giorgi, F.

    1993-01-01

    In this paper we investigate the feasibility of coupling regional climate models (RCMs) with landscape-scale hydrologic models (LSHMs) for studies of the effects of climate on hydrologic systems. The RCM used is the National Center for Atmospheric Research/Pennsylvania State University mesoscale model (MM4). Output from two year-round simulations (1983 and 1988) over the western United States is used to drive a lake model for Pyramid Lake in Nevada and a streamfiow model for Steamboat Creek in Oregon. Comparisons with observed data indicate that MM4 is able to produce meteorologic data sets that can be used to drive hydrologic models. Results from the lake model simulations indicate that the use of MM4 output produces reasonably good predictions of surface temperature and evaporation. Results from the streamflow simulations indicate that the use of MM4 output results in good simulations of the seasonal cycle of streamflow, but deficiencies in simulated wintertime precipitation resulted in underestimates of streamflow and soil moisture. Further work with climate (multiyear) simulations is necessary to achieve a complete analysis, but the results from this study indicate that coupling of LSHMs and RCMs may be a useful approach for evaluating the effects of climate change on hydrologic systems.

  1. A Comparison of the CHILD and Landlab Computational Landscape Evolution Models and Examples of Best Practices in Numerical Modeling of Surface Processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gasparini, N. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.; Tucker, G. E.; Istanbulluoglu, E.; Adams, J. M.; Nudurupati, S. S.; Hutton, E. W. H.

    2014-12-01

    Computational models are important tools that can be used to quantitatively understand the evolution of real landscapes. Commonalities exist among most landscape evolution models, although they are also idiosyncratic, in that they are coded in different languages, require different input values, and are designed to tackle a unique set of questions. These differences can make applying a landscape evolution model challenging, especially for novice programmers. In this study, we compare and contrast two landscape evolution models that are designed to tackle similar questions, but the actual model designs are quite different. The first model, CHILD, is over a decade-old and is relatively well-tested, well-developed and well-used. It is coded in C++, operates on an irregular grid and was designed more with function rather than user-experience in mind. In contrast, the second model, Landlab, is relatively new and was designed to be accessible to a wide range of scientists, including those who have not previously used or developed a numerical model. Landlab is coded in Python, a relatively easy language for the non-proficient programmer, and has the ability to model landscapes described on both regular and irregular grids. We present landscape simulations from both modeling platforms. Our goal is to illustrate best practices for implementing a new process module in a landscape evolution model, and therefore the simulations are applicable regardless of the modeling platform. We contrast differences and highlight similarities between the use of the two models, including setting-up the model and input file for different evolutionary scenarios, computational time, and model output. Whenever possible, we compare model output with analytical solutions and illustrate the effects, or lack thereof, of a uniform vs. non-uniform grid. Our simulations focus on implementing a single process, including detachment-limited or transport-limited fluvial bedrock incision and linear or non

  2. Landscape epidemiology and machine learning: A geospatial approach to modeling West Nile virus risk in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Young, Sean Gregory

    The complex interactions between human health and the physical landscape and environment have been recognized, if not fully understood, since the ancient Greeks. Landscape epidemiology, sometimes called spatial epidemiology, is a sub-discipline of medical geography that uses environmental conditions as explanatory variables in the study of disease or other health phenomena. This theory suggests that pathogenic organisms (whether germs or larger vector and host species) are subject to environmental conditions that can be observed on the landscape, and by identifying where such organisms are likely to exist, areas at greatest risk of the disease can be derived. Machine learning is a sub-discipline of artificial intelligence that can be used to create predictive models from large and complex datasets. West Nile virus (WNV) is a relatively new infectious disease in the United States, and has a fairly well-understood transmission cycle that is believed to be highly dependent on environmental conditions. This study takes a geospatial approach to the study of WNV risk, using both landscape epidemiology and machine learning techniques. A combination of remotely sensed and in situ variables are used to predict WNV incidence with a correlation coefficient as high as 0.86. A novel method of mitigating the small numbers problem is also tested and ultimately discarded. Finally a consistent spatial pattern of model errors is identified, indicating the chosen variables are capable of predicting WNV disease risk across most of the United States, but are inadequate in the northern Great Plains region of the US.

  3. Probabilistic modelling of chromatin code landscape reveals functional diversity of enhancer-like chromatin states

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Jian; Troyanskaya, Olga G.

    2016-01-01

    Interpreting the functional state of chromatin from the combinatorial binding patterns of chromatin factors, that is, the chromatin codes, is crucial for decoding the epigenetic state of the cell. Here we present a systematic map of Drosophila chromatin states derived from data-driven probabilistic modelling of dependencies between chromatin factors. Our model not only recapitulates enhancer-like chromatin states as indicated by widely used enhancer marks but also divides these states into three functionally distinct groups, of which only one specific group possesses active enhancer activity. Moreover, we discover a strong association between one specific enhancer state and RNA Polymerase II pausing, linking transcription regulatory potential and chromatin organization. We also observe that with the exception of long-intron genes, chromatin state transition positions in transcriptionally active genes align with an absolute distance to their corresponding transcription start site, regardless of gene length. Using our method, we provide a resource that helps elucidate the functional and spatial organization of the chromatin code landscape. PMID:26841971

  4. Approaches to modeling landscape-scale drought-induced forest mortality

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gustafson, Eric J.; Shinneman, Douglas

    2015-01-01

    Drought stress is an important cause of tree mortality in forests, and drought-induced disturbance events are projected to become more common in the future due to climate change. Landscape Disturbance and Succession Models (LDSM) are becoming widely used to project climate change impacts on forests, including potential interactions with natural and anthropogenic disturbances, and to explore the efficacy of alternative management actions to mitigate negative consequences of global changes on forests and ecosystem services. Recent studies incorporating drought-mortality effects into LDSMs have projected significant potential changes in forest composition and carbon storage, largely due to differential impacts of drought on tree species and interactions with other disturbance agents. In this chapter, we review how drought affects forest ecosystems and the different ways drought effects have been modeled (both spatially and aspatially) in the past. Building on those efforts, we describe several approaches to modeling drought effects in LDSMs, discuss advantages and shortcomings of each, and include two case studies for illustration. The first approach features the use of empirically derived relationships between measures of drought and the loss of tree biomass to drought-induced mortality. The second uses deterministic rules of species mortality for given drought events to project changes in species composition and forest distribution. A third approach is more mechanistic, simulating growth reductions and death caused by water stress. Because modeling of drought effects in LDSMs is still in its infancy, and because drought is expected to play an increasingly important role in forest health, further development of modeling drought-forest dynamics is urgently needed.

  5. Understanding landscape dynamics over thousand years : combining field and model work : with case study in the Drakensberg foothill, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Temme, A.J.A.M.

    2008-01-01

    The title of this thesis is “Understanding landscape dynamics over thousands of years : combining field and model work, with a case study in the Drakensberg Foothills, KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa”. As the title clearly states, the overall objective is an increased knowledge of landscape dynamics

  6. Chapter 3: Simulating fire hazard across landscapes through time: integrating state-and-transition models with the Fuel Characteristic Classification System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jessica E. Halofsky; Stephanie K. Hart; Miles A. Hemstrom; Joshua S. Halofsky; Morris C. Johnson

    2014-01-01

    Information on the effects of management activities such as fuel reduction treatments and of processes such as vegetation growth and disturbance on fire hazard can help land managers prioritize treatments across a landscape to best meet management goals. State-and-transition models (STMs) allow landscape-scale simulations that incorporate effects of succession,...

  7. Measuring and modeling the spatial pattern of understory bamboo across landscapes: Implications for giant panda habitat

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linderman, Marc Alan

    We examined an approach to classifying understory bamboo, the staple food of the giant panda (Ailuropoda melanoleuca), from remote sensing imagery in the Wolong Nature Reserve, China. We also used these data to estimate the landscape-scale distribution of giant panda habitat, and model the human effects on forest cover and the spatio-temporal dynamics of bamboo and the resulting implications for giant panda habitat. The spatial distribution of understory bamboo was mapped using an artificial neural network and leaf-on remote sensing data. Training on a limited set of ground truth data and using widely available Landsat TM data as input, a non-linear artificial neural network achieved a classification accuracy of 80% despite the presence of co-occurring mid-story and understory vegetation. Using information on the spatial distribution of bamboo in Wolong, we compared the results of giant panda habitat analyses with and without bamboo information. Total amount of habitat decreased by 29--56% and overall habitat patch size decreased by 16--48% after bamboo information was incorporated into the analyses. The decreases in the quantity of panda habitat and increases in habitat fragmentation resulted in decreases of 41--60% in carrying capacity. Using a spatio-temporal model of bamboo dynamics and human activities, we found that local fuelwood collection and household creation will likely reduce secondary habitat relied upon by pandas. Human impacts would likely contribute up to an additional 16% loss of habitat. Furthermore, these impacts primarily occur in the habitat relied upon by giant pandas during past bamboo die-offs. Decreased total area of habitat and increased fragmentation from human activities will likely make giant pandas increasingly sensitive to natural disturbances such as cyclical bamboo die-offs. Our studies suggest that it is necessary to further examine approaches to monitor understory vegetation and incorporate understory information into wildlife

  8. Spatial allocation of future landscape patterns for biomass and alleviation of hydrologic impacts of climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ssegane, H.; Negri, M. C.

    2015-12-01

    Current and future demand for food, feed, fiber, and energy require novel approaches to land management, which demands that multifunctional landscapes are created to integrate various ecosystem functions into a sustainable land use. Concurrently, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) predicts an increase of 2 to 4°C over the next 100 years above the preindustrial baseline, beginning as early as 2016 to 2035 over all seasons in the North America. This climate change is projected to further strain water resources currently stressed by anthropogenic activities. Therefore, placement of bioenergy crops on strategically selected sub-field areas in an agricultural landscape has the potential to increase the environmental and economic sustainability if location and choice of the crops result in minimal disruption of current food production systems and therefore cause minimal indirect land use change. This study identified sub-field marginal areas in an agricultural watershed using soil-based environmental sustainability criteria and a crop productivity index. Future landscape patterns (FLPs) were developed by allocating bioenergy crops (switchgrass: Panicum virgatum or shrub willows: Salix spp.) to these marginal areas (20% of the watershed). SWAT hydrologic model and dynamically downscaled climatic projection were used to asses impact of climate change on extreme flow conditions, total annual production of commodity and bioenergy crops, and water quality under current and future landscape patterns for the mid-21st century (2045-2055) and late 21st century (2085-2095) climatic projections. The frequency of flood and drought conditions was projected to increase while the corresponding durations to decrease. Sediment yields were projected to increase by 85% to 170% while FLPs would mitigate this increase by 26% to 32%.

  9. REDD+ and climate smart agriculture in landscapes: A case study in Vietnam using companion modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvini, G; Ligtenberg, A; van Paassen, A; Bregt, A K; Avitabile, V; Herold, M

    2016-05-01

    Finding land use strategies that merge land-based climate change mitigation measures and adaptation strategies is still an open issue in climate discourse. This article explores synergies and trade-offs between REDD+, a scheme that focuses mainly on mitigation through forest conservation, with "Climate Smart Agriculture", an approach that emphasizes adaptive agriculture. We introduce a framework for ex-ante assessment of the impact of land management policies and interventions and for quantifying their impacts on land-based mitigation and adaptation goals. The framework includes a companion modelling (ComMod) process informed by interviews with policymakers, local experts and local farmers. The ComMod process consists of a Role-Playing Game with local farmers and an Agent Based Model. The game provided a participatory means to develop policy and climate change scenarios. These scenarios were then used as inputs to the Agent Based Model, a spatially explicit model to simulate landscape dynamics and the associated carbon emissions over decades. We applied the framework using as case study a community in central Vietnam, characterized by deforestation for subsistence agriculture and cultivation of acacias as a cash crop. The main findings show that the framework is useful in guiding consideration of local stakeholders' goals, needs and constraints. Additionally the framework provided beneficial information to policymakers, pointing to ways that policies might be re-designed to make them better tailored to local circumstances and therefore more effective in addressing synergistically climate change mitigation and adaptation objectives. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Climate Change Impacts and Adaptation to Flow of Swat River and Glaciers in Hindu Kush Ranges, Swat District, Pakistan (2003-2013

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saifullah Khan

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available This work aims at the climate change impacts and adaptation to surface flow of Swat river and glacier resources in Swat river catchments area, Hindu Kush ranges, Northwest Pakistan. The data about temperature and precipitation have been collected from the Pakistan Meteorological Department, Karachi, whereas the Swat River flow data from the Irrigation Department, Peshawar, Khyber Pukhtunkhwa. Two types of climate that is humid and undifferentiated highlands prevail over the area. The total precipitation recorded has been 41.8inches (1061.7 millimeters with mean monthly precipitation of 3.5 inches (88.9 millimeters having a decrease of -0.1 inch (-2.8 millimeters. The area has been humid during 2004 and currently at the threshold of the sub-humid climates (20-40 inches. Kalam valley experiences cold long winters (7 months and short warm summers (5 months. The mean temperature reveals an increase of 0.90C, maximum temperature 0.40C and mean minimum temperature 0.50Celsius. This increase in the temperature of the area has caused water stress and retreat of glaciers and affected the permafrost condition at higher altitudes in the area. The annual flow of the Swat river is 192.2 cubic meter/seconds with a decline of -0.03 cubic m/sec from 2003 to 2013. The annual trend of water flow is directly proportional to precipitation and contrary to maximum temperature during 2003 to 2012 and shows converse condition till 2013. The decrease in the flow of Swat river seems both in winter and summer season. The glaciers and snow covered area of the Kalam valley decreases with passage of time and required mitigation. The vulnerability of the study area to climate change can be minimized by the construction of small reservoirs, river embankments, improvement in sewerage and sanitation, planning for flood water, and revision of the water management policy, implementation, and establishment of research and development funds.

  11. Spatial exposure-hazard and landscape models for assessing the impact of GM crops on non-target organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leclerc, Melen; Walker, Emily; Messéan, Antoine; Soubeyrand, Samuel

    2017-12-18

    The cultivation of Genetically Modified (GM) crops may have substantial impacts on populations of non-target organisms (NTOs) in agroecosystems. These impacts should be assessed at larger spatial scales than the cultivated field, and, as landscape-scale experiments are difficult, if not impossible, modelling approaches are needed to address landscape risk management. We present an original stochastic and spatially explicit modelling framework for assessing the risk at the landscape level. We use techniques from spatial statistics for simulating simplified landscapes made up of (aggregated or non-aggregated) GM fields, neutral fields and NTO's habitat areas. The dispersal of toxic pollen grains is obtained by convolving the emission of GM plants and validated dispersal kernel functions while the locations of exposed individuals are drawn from a point process. By taking into account the adherence of the ambient pollen on plants, the loss of pollen due to climatic events, and, an experimentally-validated mortality-dose function we predict risk maps and provide a distribution giving how the risk varies within exposed individuals in the landscape. Then, we consider the impact of the Bt maize on Inachis io in worst-case scenarii where exposed individuals are located in the vicinity of GM fields and pollen shedding overlaps with larval emergence. We perform a Global Sensitivity Analysis (GSA) to explore numerically how our input parameters influence the risk. Our results confirm the important effects of pollen emission and loss. Most interestingly they highlight that the optimal spatial distribution of GM fields that mitigates the risk depends on our knowledge of the habitats of NTOs, and finally, moderate the influence of the dispersal kernel function. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  12. STATE OF THE ART OF THE LANDSCAPE ARCHITECTURE SPATIAL DATA MODEL FROM A GEOSPATIAL PERSPECTIVE

    OpenAIRE

    A. Kastuari; D. Suwardhi; H. Hanan; K. Wikantika

    2016-01-01

    Spatial data and information had been used for some time in planning or landscape design. For a long time, architects were using spatial data in the form of topographic map for their designs. This method is not efficient, and it is also not more accurate than using spatial analysis by utilizing GIS. Architects are sometimes also only accentuating the aesthetical aspect for their design, but not taking landscape process into account which could cause the design could be not suitable for its us...

  13. An integrated social and ecological modeling framework - impacts of agricultural conservation practices on water quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Irem Daloğlu

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available We present a modeling framework that synthesizes social, economic, and ecological aspects of landscape change to evaluate how different agricultural policy and land tenure scenarios and land management preferences affect landscape pattern and downstream water quality. We linked a stylized agent-based model (ABM of farmers' conservation practice adoption decisions with a water quality model, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT, to simulate the water quality effects of changing land tenure dynamics and different policies for crop revenue insurance in lieu of commodity payments over 41 years (1970-2010 for a predominantly agricultural watershed of Lake Erie. Results show that non-operator owner involvement in land management decisions yields the highest reduction in sediment and nutrient loads, and crop revenue insurance leads to more homogeneous farmer decisions and a slight increase in sediment and nutrient loads unless cross compliance with expanded conservation requirements is implemented.

  14. Coevolutionary modeling of protein sequences: Predicting structure, function, and mutational landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weigt, Martin

    Over the last years, biological research has been revolutionized by experimental high-throughput techniques, in particular by next-generation sequencing technology. Unprecedented amounts of data are accumulating, and there is a growing request for computational methods unveiling the information hidden in raw data, thereby increasing our understanding of complex biological systems. Statistical-physics models based on the maximum-entropy principle have, in the last few years, played an important role in this context. To give a specific example, proteins and many non-coding RNA show a remarkable degree of structural and functional conservation in the course of evolution, despite a large variability in amino acid sequences. We have developed a statistical-mechanics inspired inference approach - called Direct-Coupling Analysis - to link this sequence variability (easy to observe in sequence alignments, which are available in public sequence databases) to bio-molecular structure and function. In my presentation I will show, how this methodology can be used (i) to infer contacts between residues and thus to guide tertiary and quaternary protein structure prediction and RNA structure prediction, (ii) to discriminate interacting from non-interacting protein families, and thus to infer conserved protein-protein interaction networks, and (iii) to reconstruct mutational landscapes and thus to predict the phenotypic effect of mutations. References [1] M. Figliuzzi, H. Jacquier, A. Schug, O. Tenaillon and M. Weigt ''Coevolutionary landscape inference and the context-dependence of mutations in beta-lactamase TEM-1'', Mol. Biol. Evol. (2015), doi: 10.1093/molbev/msv211 [2] E. De Leonardis, B. Lutz, S. Ratz, S. Cocco, R. Monasson, A. Schug, M. Weigt ''Direct-Coupling Analysis of nucleotide coevolution facilitates RNA secondary and tertiary structure prediction'', Nucleic Acids Research (2015), doi: 10.1093/nar/gkv932 [3] F. Morcos, A. Pagnani, B. Lunt, A. Bertolino, D. Marks, C

  15. Modelling the distribution of the invasive Roesel’s bush-cricket (Metrioptera roeselii in a fragmented landscape

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sonja Preuss

    2011-11-01

    Full Text Available The development of conservation strategies to mitigate the impact of invasive species requires knowledge of the species ecology and distribution. This is, however, often lacking as collecting biological data may be both time-consuming and resource intensive. Species distribution models can offer a solution to this dilemma by analysing the species-environment relationship with help of Geographic information systems (GIS. In this study, we model the distribution of the non-native bush-cricket Metrioptera roeselii in the agricultural landscape in mid-Sweden where the species has been rapidly expanding in its range since the 1990s. We extract ecologically relevant landscape variables from Swedish CORINE land-cover maps and use species presence-absence data from large-scale surveys to construct a species distribution model (SDM. The aim of the study is to increase the knowledge of the species range expansion pattern by examining how its distribution is affected by landscape composition and structure, and to evaluate SDM performance at two different spatial scales. We found that models including data on a scale of 1 × 1 km were able to explain more of the variation in species distribution than those on the local scale (10 m buffer on each side of surveyed road. The amount of grassland in the landscape, estimated from the area of arable land, pasture and rural settlements, was a good predictor of the presence of the species on both scales. The measurements of landscape structure – linear elements and fragmentation - gave ambivalent results which differed from previous small scaled studies on species dispersal behaviour and occupancy patterns. The models had good predictive ability and showed that areas dominated by agricultural fields and their associated grassland edges have a high probability being colonised by the species. Our study identified important landscape variables that explain the distribution of M. roeselii in Mid-Sweden that may also

  16. The development and application of landscape evolution models to coupled coast-estuarine environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morris, Chloe; Coulthard, Tom; Parsons, Daniel R.; Manson, Susan; Barkwith, Andrew

    2017-04-01

    Landscape Evolution Models (LEMs) are proven to be useful tools in understanding the morphodynamics of coast and estuarine systems. However, perhaps owing to the lack of research in this area, current models are not capable of simulating the dynamic interactions between these systems and their co-evolution at the meso-scale. Through a novel coupling of numerical models, this research is designed to explore coupled coastal-estuarine interactions, controls on system behaviour and the influence that environmental change could have. This will contribute to the understanding of the morphodynamics of these systems and how they may behave and evolve over the next century in response to climate changes, with the aim of informing management practices. This goal is being achieved through the modification and coupling of the one-line Coastline Evolution Model (CEM) with the hydrodynamic LEM CAESAR-Lisflood (C-L). The major issues faced with coupling these programs are their differing complexities and the limited graphical visualisations produced by the CEM that hinder the dissemination of results. The work towards overcoming these issues and reported here, include a new version of the CEM that incorporates a range of more complex geomorphological processes and boasts a graphical user interface that guides users through model set-up and projects a live output during model runs. The improved version is a stand-alone tool that can be used for further research projects and for teaching purposes. A sensitivity analysis using the Morris method has been completed to identify which key variables, including wave climate, erosion and weathering values, dominate the control of model behaviour. The model is being applied and tested using the evolution of the Holderness Coast, Humber Estuary and Spurn Point on the east coast of England (UK), which possess diverse geomorphologies and complex, co-evolving sediment pathways. Simulations using the modified CEM are currently being completed to

  17. Coupled barrier island-resort model: 1. Emergent instabilities induced by strong human-landscape interactions

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNamara, D. E.; Werner, B. T.

    2008-03-01

    As humans increasingly occupy and modify marginal landscapes, previously unobserved long timescale, emergent behaviors related to interactions between natural processes and human agency are possible. Barrier islands, which are low-lying strips of sand separated from a coast by lagoons, cut by inlets and topped by sand dunes, have been significantly modified through the development of tourist resorts. Resorts and barrier islands are dynamically coupled through storm damage and beach erosion, and measures taken to prevent or mitigate them. In response to rising sea level, a natural barrier island migrates steadily up the continental shelf. In contrast, we show that in a novel numerical model-coupling barrier island processes with resort development, storm damage, and hazard mitigation, policy decisions driven by market dynamics destabilize barrier island response to rising sea level, giving rise to emergent, episodic boom and bust cycles, which alternate in phase alongshore, and less frequent, regionally extensive resort destruction events. Developed barrier islands are precariously maintained at lower elevations and further offshore than their natural counterparts, a situation exacerbated by insurance, which can lead to island inundation. Our results suggest that coastal areas that have recently instituted protection measures eventually will experience a widespread upsurge in damage if these practices are sustained, even in the absence of climate-change-induced increased storminess.

  18. High Resolution Modeling for Improved Quantification of Snow Accumulation Across an Arctic Shrub-tundra Landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toure, A. M.; Marsh, P.; Liston, G. E.; de Jong, T.; Mann, P.; Walker, B.; Wilcox, E.

    2016-12-01

    Arctic regions are experiencing climate change at a faster pace than anywhere else on the Earth, resulting in a profound transformation of the landscape and regional ecosystems. In particular, climate change affects the seasonal cycle of water availability and phase, which in turn affects the plants, wildlife, and human populations. The Arctic snow duration has shortened by 3 to 5 days / decade and this trend is predicted to continue. Changing in distribution of permafrost also leads in changes in hydrologic conditions. Across the Arctic, interactions between wind, vegetation, topography and snowfall produce an uneven spatial distribution of snow over distances of tens of centimeters to hundreds of meters known as snowdrifts. These large patches of snow can produce a proglacial-like runoff pattern due to delay in snowmelt in the spring. Therefore, knowing the location and magnitude of drifts is key for understanding runoff in these regions. In this study, we used a high-resolution snow model ( 1 m) with snow transportation capabilities to locate and estimate snow depth and snow water equivalent (SWE) as a function of topography, vegetation and land use. Snow accumulation and melt across natural terrain heterogeneity, patches of tundra, shrubs, and forest environments are evaluated against ground-based and Unmanned Aerial System (UAS) observations.

  19. Integrated dynamic landscape analysis and modeling system (IDLAMS) : programmer's manual.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klaus, C. M.; Li, Z.; Majerus, K. A.; Sundell, R. C.; Sydelko, P. J.; Vogt, M. C.

    1999-02-24

    The Integrated Dynamic Landscape Analysis and Modeling System (IDLAMS) is a prototype, integrated land management technology developed through a joint effort between Argonne National Laboratory (ANL) and the US Army Corps of Engineers Construction Engineering Research Laboratories (USACERL). Dr. Ronald C. Sundell, Ms. Pamela J. Sydelko, and Ms. Kimberly A. Majerus were the principal investigators (PIs) for this project. Dr. Zhian Li was the primary software developer. Dr. Jeffrey M. Keisler, Mr. Christopher M. Klaus, and Mr. Michael C. Vogt developed the decision analysis component of this project. It was developed with funding support from the Strategic Environmental Research and Development Program (SERDP), a land/environmental stewardship research program with participation from the US Department of Defense (DoD), the US Department of Energy (DOE), and the US Environmental Protection Agency (EPA). IDLAMS predicts land conditions (e.g., vegetation, wildlife habitats, and erosion status) by simulating changes in military land ecosystems for given training intensities and land management practices. It can be used by military land managers to help predict the future ecological condition for a given land use based on land management scenarios of various levels of training intensity. It also can be used as a tool to help land managers compare different land management practices and further determine a set of land management activities and prescriptions that best suit the needs of a specific military installation.

  20. A Monte Carlo Approach to Modeling Wildfire Risk on Changing Landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burzynski, A. M.; Beavers, A.

    2016-12-01

    The U.S. Department of Defense (DoD) maintains approximately 28 million acres of land across 420 of their largest installations. These sites harbored 425 federally listed Threatened and Endangered species as of 2013, representing a density of rare species that is several times greater than any other land management agency in the U.S. This is a major driver of DoD natural resources policy and many of these species are affected by wildland fire, both positively and negatively. Military installations collectively experience thousands of wildfires per year, and the majority of ignitions are caused by mission and training activities that can be planned to accommodate fire risk. Motivated by the need for accurately modeled wildfire under the unique land-use conditions of military installations and the assessment of risk exposure at installations throughout the U.S., we developed custom, FARSITE-based scientific software that applies a Monte Carlo approach to wildfire risk analysis. This simulation accounts for the dynamics of vegetation and weather over time, as well as the spatial and temporal distribution of wildfire ignitions, and can be applied to landscapes up to several million acres in size. The data-driven simulation provides insight that feeds directly into mitigation decision-making and can be used to assess future risk scenarios, both real and hypothetical. We highlight an example of a future scenario comparing wildfire behavior between unmitigated fuels and one in which a prescribed burn program is implemented. The same process can be used for a variety of scenarios including changes in vegetation (e.g. new or altered grazing regimes, extreme weather, or drought) and changes in spatiotemporal ignition probability. The modeling capabilities that we apply to predicting wildfire risk on military lands are also relevant to the greater scientific community for modeling wildland fire in the context of environmental change, historical ecology, or climate change.

  1. Discharge competence and pattern formation in peatlands: a meta-ecosystem model of the Everglades ridge-slough landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heffernan, James B; Watts, Danielle L; Cohen, Matthew J

    2013-01-01

    Regular landscape patterning arises from spatially-dependent feedbacks, and can undergo catastrophic loss in response to changing landscape drivers. The central Everglades (Florida, USA) historically exhibited regular, linear, flow-parallel orientation of high-elevation sawgrass ridges and low-elevation sloughs that has degraded due to hydrologic modification. In this study, we use a meta-ecosystem approach to model a mechanism for the establishment, persistence, and loss of this landscape. The discharge competence (or self-organizing canal) hypothesis assumes non-linear relationships between peat accretion and water depth, and describes flow-dependent feedbacks of microtopography on water depth. Closed-form model solutions demonstrate that 1) this mechanism can produce spontaneous divergence of local elevation; 2) divergent and homogenous states can exhibit global bi-stability; and 3) feedbacks that produce divergence act anisotropically. Thus, discharge competence and non-linear peat accretion dynamics may explain the establishment, persistence, and loss of landscape pattern, even in the absence of other spatial feedbacks. Our model provides specific, testable predictions that may allow discrimination between the self-organizing canal hypotheses and competing explanations. The potential for global bi-stability suggested by our model suggests that hydrologic restoration may not re-initiate spontaneous pattern establishment, particularly where distinct soil elevation modes have been lost. As a result, we recommend that management efforts should prioritize maintenance of historic hydroperiods in areas of conserved pattern over restoration of hydrologic regimes in degraded regions. This study illustrates the value of simple meta-ecosystem models for investigation of spatial processes.

  2. Discharge competence and pattern formation in peatlands: a meta-ecosystem model of the Everglades ridge-slough landscape.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James B Heffernan

    Full Text Available Regular landscape patterning arises from spatially-dependent feedbacks, and can undergo catastrophic loss in response to changing landscape drivers. The central Everglades (Florida, USA historically exhibited regular, linear, flow-parallel orientation of high-elevation sawgrass ridges and low-elevation sloughs that has degraded due to hydrologic modification. In this study, we use a meta-ecosystem approach to model a mechanism for the establishment, persistence, and loss of this landscape. The discharge competence (or self-organizing canal hypothesis assumes non-linear relationships between peat accretion and water depth, and describes flow-dependent feedbacks of microtopography on water depth. Closed-form model solutions demonstrate that 1 this mechanism can produce spontaneous divergence of local elevation; 2 divergent and homogenous states can exhibit global bi-stability; and 3 feedbacks that produce divergence act anisotropically. Thus, discharge competence and non-linear peat accretion dynamics may explain the establishment, persistence, and loss of landscape pattern, even in the absence of other spatial feedbacks. Our model provides specific, testable predictions that may allow discrimination between the self-organizing canal hypotheses and competing explanations. The potential for global bi-stability suggested by our model suggests that hydrologic restoration may not re-initiate spontaneous pattern establishment, particularly where distinct soil elevation modes have been lost. As a result, we recommend that management efforts should prioritize maintenance of historic hydroperiods in areas of conserved pattern over restoration of hydrologic regimes in degraded regions. This study illustrates the value of simple meta-ecosystem models for investigation of spatial processes.

  3. lumpR 2.0.0: an R package facilitating landscape discretisation for hillslope-based hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pilz, Tobias; Francke, Till; Bronstert, Axel

    2017-08-01

    The characteristics of a landscape pose essential factors for hydrological processes. Therefore, an adequate representation of the landscape of a catchment in hydrological models is vital. However, many of such models exist differing, amongst others, in spatial concept and discretisation. The latter constitutes an essential pre-processing step, for which many different algorithms along with numerous software implementations exist. In that context, existing solutions are often model specific, commercial, or depend on commercial back-end software, and allow only a limited or no workflow automation at all. Consequently, a new package for the scientific software and scripting environment R, called lumpR, was developed. lumpR employs an algorithm for hillslope-based landscape discretisation directed to large-scale application via a hierarchical multi-scale approach. The package addresses existing limitations as it is free and open source, easily extendible to other hydrological models, and the workflow can be fully automated. Moreover, it is user-friendly as the direct coupling to a GIS allows for immediate visual inspection and manual adjustment. Sufficient control is furthermore retained via parameter specification and the option to include expert knowledge. Conversely, completely automatic operation also allows for extensive analysis of aspects related to landscape discretisation. In a case study, the application of the package is presented. A sensitivity analysis of the most important discretisation parameters demonstrates its efficient workflow automation. Considering multiple streamflow metrics, the employed model proved reasonably robust to the discretisation parameters. However, parameters determining the sizes of subbasins and hillslopes proved to be more important than the others, including the number of representative hillslopes, the number of attributes employed for the lumping algorithm, and the number of sub-discretisations of the representative hillslopes.

  4. Interplay between dynamic topography and flexure along the U.S. Atlantic passive margin: Insights from landscape evolution modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moucha, Robert; Ruetenik, Gregory A.; Hoke, Gregory D.; Rovere, Alessio

    2015-04-01

    Recent global backwards-in time models of mantle convection have resulted in vastly different interpretations of the transient state of dynamic topography on the U.S. Atlantic passive margin over the past 30 Myr (Moucha et al., 2008; Spacejovic et al., 2008; Rowley et al., 2013; Liu, 2014). A promising way of benchmarking these geodynamic models is by reconciling them with the observed offshore sedimentary record. However, it is difficult to deconvolve the erosional response produced by changes in dynamic topography from other sources of landscape change because the erosional response is a convolution of dynamic topography changes, tectonic uplift/subsidence, flexural response to erosional unloading and depositional loading, rock properties, and climate. Herein, we present results from a new landscape evolution model that is capable of producing simulations that are required at the scale and resolution necessary to quantify the landscape response to various models of dynamic topographic change on the U.S. Atlantic passive margin in the presence of flexural unloading and loading due to erosion and deposition. We focus here on the deformation of the Orangeburg scarp, a well-documented mid-Pliocene shoreline, and demonstrate that flexural effects along this margin may be comparable to changes in dynamic topography. We conclude by exploring the parameter space to find an acceptable fit to the observed warping of the Orangeburg scarp by combining dynamic topography and flexural effects changes.

  5. Using an agent-based model to examine forest management outcomes in a fire-prone landscape in Oregon, USA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thomas A. Spies

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Fire-prone landscapes present many challenges for both managers and policy makers in developing adaptive behaviors and institutions. We used a coupled human and natural systems framework and an agent-based landscape model to examine how alternative management scenarios affect fire and ecosystem services metrics in a fire-prone multiownership landscape in the eastern Cascades of Oregon. Our model incorporated existing models of vegetation succession and fire spread and information from original empirical studies of landowner decision making. Our findings indicate that alternative management strategies can have variable effects on landscape outcomes over 50 years for fire, socioeconomic, and ecosystem services metrics. For example, scenarios with federal restoration treatments had slightly less high-severity fire than a scenario without treatment; exposure of homes in the wildland-urban interface to fire was also slightly less with restoration treatments compared to no management. Treatments appeared to be more effective at reducing high-severity fire in years with more fire than in years with less fire. Under the current management scenario, timber production could be maintained for at least 50 years on federal lands. Under an accelerated restoration scenario, timber production fell because of a shortage of areas meeting current stand structure treatment targets. Trade-offs between restoration outcomes (e.g., open forests with large fire-resistant trees and habitat for species that require dense older forests were evident. For example, the proportional area of nesting habitat for northern spotted owl (Strix occidentalis was somewhat less after 50 years under the restoration scenarios than under no management. However, the amount of resilient older forest structure and habitat for white-headed woodpecker (Leuconotopicus albolarvatus was higher after 50 years under active management. More carbon was stored on this landscape without management than

  6. Land use, water and Mediterranean landscapes: modelling long-term dynamics of complex socio-ecological systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barton, C Michael; Ullah, Isaac I; Bergin, Sean

    2010-11-28

    The evolution of Mediterranean landscapes during the Holocene has been increasingly governed by the complex interactions of water and human land use. Different land-use practices change the amount of water flowing across the surface and infiltrating the soil, and change water's ability to move surface sediments. Conversely, water amplifies the impacts of human land use and extends the ecological footprint of human activities far beyond the borders of towns and fields. Advances in computational modelling offer new tools to study the complex feedbacks between land use, land cover, topography and surface water. The Mediterranean Landscape Dynamics project (MedLand) is building a modelling laboratory where experiments can be carried out on the long-term impacts of agropastoral land use, and whose results can be tested against the archaeological record. These computational experiments are providing new insights into the socio-ecological consequences of human decisions at varying temporal and spatial scales.

  7. Patterns and scaling properties of surface soil moisture in an agricultural landscape: An ecohydrological modeling study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korres, W.; Reichenau, T. G.; Schneider, K.

    2013-08-01

    Soil moisture is a key variable in hydrology, meteorology and agriculture. Soil moisture, and surface soil moisture in particular, is highly variable in space and time. Its spatial and temporal patterns in agricultural landscapes are affected by multiple natural (precipitation, soil, topography, etc.) and agro-economic (soil management, fertilization, etc.) factors, making it difficult to identify unequivocal cause and effect relationships between soil moisture and its driving variables. The goal of this study is to characterize and analyze the spatial and temporal patterns of surface soil moisture (top 20 cm) in an intensively used agricultural landscape (1100 km2 northern part of the Rur catchment, Western Germany) and to determine the dominant factors and underlying processes controlling these patterns. A second goal is to analyze the scaling behavior of surface soil moisture patterns in order to investigate how spatial scale affects spatial patterns. To achieve these goals, a dynamically coupled, process-based and spatially distributed ecohydrological model was used to analyze the key processes as well as their interactions and feedbacks. The model was validated for two growing seasons for the three main crops in the investigation area: Winter wheat, sugar beet, and maize. This yielded RMSE values for surface soil moisture between 1.8 and 7.8 vol.% and average RMSE values for all three crops of 0.27 kg m-2 for total aboveground biomass and 0.93 for green LAI. Large deviations of measured and modeled soil moisture can be explained by a change of the infiltration properties towards the end of the growing season, especially in maize fields. The validated model was used to generate daily surface soil moisture maps, serving as a basis for an autocorrelation analysis of spatial patterns and scale. Outside of the growing season, surface soil moisture patterns at all spatial scales depend mainly upon soil properties. Within the main growing season, larger scale

  8. Landscape-scale evaluation of asymmetric interactions between Brown Trout and Brook Trout using two-species occupancy models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Tyler; Jefferson T. Deweber,; Jason Detar,; John A. Sweka,

    2013-01-01

    Predicting the distribution of native stream fishes is fundamental to the management and conservation of many species. Modeling species distributions often consists of quantifying relationships between species occurrence and abundance data at known locations with environmental data at those locations. However, it is well documented that native stream fish distributions can be altered as a result of asymmetric interactions between dominant exotic and subordinate native species. For example, the naturalized exotic Brown Trout Salmo trutta has been identified as a threat to native Brook Trout Salvelinus fontinalis in the eastern United States. To evaluate large-scale patterns of co-occurrence and to quantify the potential effects of Brown Trout presence on Brook Trout occupancy, we used data from 624 stream sites to fit two-species occupancy models. These models assumed that asymmetric interactions occurred between the two species. In addition, we examined natural and anthropogenic landscape characteristics we hypothesized would be important predictors of occurrence of both species. Estimated occupancy for Brook Trout, from a co-occurrence model with no landscape covariates, at sites with Brown Trout present was substantially lower than sites where Brown Trout were absent. We also observed opposing patterns for Brook and Brown Trout occurrence in relation to percentage forest, impervious surface, and agriculture within the network catchment. Our results are consistent with other studies and suggest that alterations to the landscape, and specifically the transition from a forested catchment to one that contains impervious surface or agriculture, reduces the occurrence probability of wild Brook Trout. Our results, however, also suggest that the presence of Brown Trout results in lower occurrence probability of Brook Trout over a range of anthropogenic landscape characteristics, compared with streams where Brown Trout were absent.

  9. Modeling seasonal dynamics of the small fish cohorts in fluctuating freshwater marsh landscapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jopp, Fred; DeAngelis, Donald L.; Trexler, Joel C.

    2010-01-01

    Small-bodied fishes constitute an important assemblage in many wetlands. In wetlands that dry periodically except for small permanent waterbodies, these fishes are quick to respond to change and can undergo large fluctuations in numbers and biomasses. An important aspect of landscapes that are mixtures of marsh and permanent waterbodies is that high rates of biomass production occur in the marshes during flooding phases, while the permanent waterbodies serve as refuges for many biotic components during the dry phases. The temporal and spatial dynamics of the small fishes are ecologically important, as these fishes provide a crucial food base for higher trophic levels, such as wading birds. We develop a simple model that is analytically tractable, describing the main processes of the spatio-temporal dynamics of a population of small-bodied fish in a seasonal wetland environment, consisting of marsh and permanent waterbodies. The population expands into newly flooded areas during the wet season and contracts during declining water levels in the dry season. If the marsh dries completely during these times (a drydown), the fish need refuge in permanent waterbodies. At least three new and general conclusions arise from the model: (1) there is an optimal rate at which fish should expand into a newly flooding area to maximize population production; (2) there is also a fluctuation amplitude of water level that maximizes fish production, and (3) there is an upper limit on the number of fish that can reach a permanent waterbody during a drydown, no matter how large the marsh surface area is that drains into the waterbody. Because water levels can be manipulated in many wetlands, it is useful to have an understanding of the role of these fluctuations.

  10. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roques, Lionel; Bonnefon, Olivier

    2016-01-01

    We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D) landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D) corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid "2D/1D model", i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department) and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape), and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case) on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature.

  11. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lionel Roques

    Full Text Available We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid "2D/1D model", i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape, and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature.

  12. Landscape characteristics influencing the genetic structure of greater sage-grouse within the stronghold of their range: a holistic modeling approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Row, Jeff R; Oyler-McCance, Sara J.; Fike, Jennifer; O'Donnell, Michael; Doherty, Kevin E.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Bowen, Zachary H.; Fedy, Brad C.

    2015-01-01

    Given the significance of animal dispersal to population dynamics and geographic variability, understanding how dispersal is impacted by landscape patterns has major ecological and conservation importance. Speaking to the importance of dispersal, the use of linear mixed models to compare genetic differentiation with pairwise resistance derived from landscape resistance surfaces has presented new opportunities to disentangle the menagerie of factors behind effective dispersal across a given landscape. Here, we combine these approaches with novel resistance surface parameterization to determine how the distribution of high- and low-quality seasonal habitat and individual landscape components shape patterns of gene flow for the greater sage-grouse (Centrocercus urophasianus) across Wyoming. We found that pairwise resistance derived from the distribution of low-quality nesting and winter, but not summer, seasonal habitat had the strongest correlation with genetic differentiation. Although the patterns were not as strong as with habitat distribution, multivariate models with sagebrush cover and landscape ruggedness or forest cover and ruggedness similarly had a much stronger fit with genetic differentiation than an undifferentiated landscape. In most cases, landscape resistance surfaces transformed with 17.33-km-diameter moving windows were preferred, suggesting small-scale differences in habitat were unimportant at this large spatial extent. Despite the emergence of these overall patterns, there were differences in the selection of top models depending on the model selection criteria, suggesting research into the most appropriate criteria for landscape genetics is required. Overall, our results highlight the importance of differences in seasonal habitat preferences to patterns of gene flow and suggest the combination of habitat suitability modeling and linear mixed models with our resistance parameterization is a powerful approach to discerning the effects of landscape

  13. Hydrological effects of the increased CO2 and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin using a modified SWAT

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Y.; Liu, S.; Abdul-Aziz, O. I.

    2012-01-01

    Increased atmospheric CO2 concentration and climate change may significantly impact the hydrological and meteorological processes of a watershed system. Quantifying and understanding hydrological responses to elevated ambient CO2 and climate change is, therefore, critical for formulating adaptive strategies for an appropriate management of water resources. In this study, the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model was applied to assess the effects of increased CO2 concentration and climate change in the Upper Mississippi River Basin (UMRB). The standard SWAT model was modified to represent more mechanistic vegetation type specific responses of stomatal conductance reduction and leaf area increase to elevated CO2 based on physiological studies. For estimating the historical impacts of increased CO2 in the recent past decades, the incremental (i.e., dynamic) rises of CO2 concentration at a monthly time-scale were also introduced into the model. Our study results indicated that about 1–4% of the streamflow in the UMRB during 1986 through 2008 could be attributed to the elevated CO2 concentration. In addition to evaluating a range of future climate sensitivity scenarios, the climate projections by four General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios were used to predict the hydrological effects in the late twenty-first century (2071–2100). Our simulations demonstrated that the water yield would increase in spring and substantially decrease in summer, while soil moisture would rise in spring and decline in summer. Such an uneven distribution of water with higher variability compared to the baseline level (1961–1990) may cause an increased risk of both flooding and drought events in the basin.

  14. Modelling Population Dynamics in Realistic Landscapes with Linear Elements: A Mechanistic-Statistical Reaction-Diffusion Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-01-01

    We propose and develop a general approach based on reaction-diffusion equations for modelling a species dynamics in a realistic two-dimensional (2D) landscape crossed by linear one-dimensional (1D) corridors, such as roads, hedgerows or rivers. Our approach is based on a hybrid “2D/1D model”, i.e, a system of 2D and 1D reaction-diffusion equations with homogeneous coefficients, in which each equation describes the population dynamics in a given 2D or 1D element of the landscape. Using the example of the range expansion of the tiger mosquito Aedes albopictus in France and its main highways as 1D corridors, we show that the model can be fitted to realistic observation data. We develop a mechanistic-statistical approach, based on the coupling between a model of population dynamics and a probabilistic model of the observation process. This allows us to bridge the gap between the data (3 levels of infestation, at the scale of a French department) and the output of the model (population densities at each point of the landscape), and to estimate the model parameter values using a maximum-likelihood approach. Using classical model comparison criteria, we obtain a better fit and a better predictive power with the 2D/1D model than with a standard homogeneous reaction-diffusion model. This shows the potential importance of taking into account the effect of the corridors (highways in the present case) on species dynamics. With regard to the particular case of A. albopictus, the conclusion that highways played an important role in species range expansion in mainland France is consistent with recent findings from the literature. PMID:26986201

  15. Landscape Ecology

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Andreas Aagaard; Brandt, Jesper; Svenningsen, Stig Roar

    2017-01-01

    Landscape ecology is an interdisciplinary field of research and practice that deals with the mutual association between the spatial configuration and ecological functioning of landscapes, exploring and describing processes involved in the differentiation of spaces within landscapes......, and the ecological significance of the patterns which are generated by such processes. In landscape ecology, perspectives drawn from existing academic disciplines are integrated based on a common, spatially explicit mode of analysis developed from classical holistic geography, emphasizing spatial and landscape...... pattern analysis and ecological interaction of land units. The landscape is seen as a holon: an assemblage of interrelated phenomena, both cultural and biophysical, that together form a complex whole. Enduring challenges to landscape ecology include the need to develop a systematic approach able...

  16. Sediment transport in forested head water catchments - Calibration and validation of a soil erosion and landscape evolution model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hancock, G. R.; Webb, A. A.; Turner, L.

    2017-11-01

    Sediment transport and soil erosion can be determined by a variety of field and modelling approaches. Computer based soil erosion and landscape evolution models (LEMs) offer the potential to be reliable assessment and prediction tools. An advantage of such models is that they provide both erosion and deposition patterns as well as total catchment sediment output. However, before use, like all models they require calibration and validation. In recent years LEMs have been used for a variety of both natural and disturbed landscape assessment. However, these models have not been evaluated for their reliability in steep forested catchments. Here, the SIBERIA LEM is calibrated and evaluated for its reliability for two steep forested catchments in south-eastern Australia. The model is independently calibrated using two methods. Firstly, hydrology and sediment transport parameters are inferred from catchment geomorphology and soil properties and secondly from catchment sediment transport and discharge data. The results demonstrate that both calibration methods provide similar parameters and reliable modelled sediment transport output. A sensitivity study of the input parameters demonstrates the model's sensitivity to correct parameterisation and also how the model could be used to assess potential timber harvesting as well as the removal of vegetation by fire.

  17. The fitness landscape of HIV-1 gag: advanced modeling approaches and validation of model predictions by in vitro testing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Jaclyn K; Barton, John P; Ferguson, Andrew L; Omarjee, Saleha; Walker, Bruce D; Chakraborty, Arup; Ndung'u, Thumbi

    2014-08-01

    Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a major hindrance to HIV-1 vaccine design. To address this challenge, our group has developed a computational model, rooted in physics, that aims to predict the fitness landscape of HIV-1 proteins in order to design vaccine immunogens that lead to impaired viral fitness, thus blocking viable escape routes. Here, we advance the computational models to address previous limitations, and directly test model predictions against in vitro fitness measurements of HIV-1 strains containing multiple Gag mutations. We incorporated regularization into the model fitting procedure to address finite sampling. Further, we developed a model that accounts for the specific identity of mutant amino acids (Potts model), generalizing our previous approach (Ising model) that is unable to distinguish between different mutant amino acids. Gag mutation combinations (17 pairs, 1 triple and 25 single mutations within these) predicted to be either harmful to HIV-1 viability or fitness-neutral were introduced into HIV-1 NL4-3 by site-directed mutagenesis and replication capacities of these mutants were assayed in vitro. The predicted and measured fitness of the corresponding mutants for the original Ising model (r = -0.74, p = 3.6×10-6) are strongly correlated, and this was further strengthened in the regularized Ising model (r = -0.83, p = 3.7×10-12). Performance of the Potts model (r = -0.73, p = 9.7×10-9) was similar to that of the Ising model, indicating that the binary approximation is sufficient for capturing fitness effects of common mutants at sites of low amino acid diversity. However, we show that the Potts model is expected to improve predictive power for more variable proteins. Overall, our results support the ability of the computational models to robustly predict the relative fitness of mutant viral strains, and indicate the potential value of this approach for understanding viral immune evasion, and

  18. The fitness landscape of HIV-1 gag: advanced modeling approaches and validation of model predictions by in vitro testing.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jaclyn K Mann

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Viral immune evasion by sequence variation is a major hindrance to HIV-1 vaccine design. To address this challenge, our group has developed a computational model, rooted in physics, that aims to predict the fitness landscape of HIV-1 proteins in order to design vaccine immunogens that lead to impaired viral fitness, thus blocking viable escape routes. Here, we advance the computational models to address previous limitations, and directly test model predictions against in vitro fitness measurements of HIV-1 strains containing multiple Gag mutations. We incorporated regularization into the model fitting procedure to address finite sampling. Further, we developed a model that accounts for the specific identity of mutant amino acids (Potts model, generalizing our previous approach (Ising model that is unable to distinguish between different mutant amino acids. Gag mutation combinations (17 pairs, 1 triple and 25 single mutations within these predicted to be either harmful to HIV-1 viability or fitness-neutral were introduced into HIV-1 NL4-3 by site-directed mutagenesis and replication capacities of these mutants were assayed in vitro. The predicted and measured fitness of the corresponding mutants for the original Ising model (r = -0.74, p = 3.6×10-6 are strongly correlated, and this was further strengthened in the regularized Ising model (r = -0.83, p = 3.7×10-12. Performance of the Potts model (r = -0.73, p = 9.7×10-9 was similar to that of the Ising model, indicating that the binary approximation is sufficient for capturing fitness effects of common mutants at sites of low amino acid diversity. However, we show that the Potts model is expected to improve predictive power for more variable proteins. Overall, our results support the ability of the computational models to robustly predict the relative fitness of mutant viral strains, and indicate the potential value of this approach for understanding viral immune evasion

  19. Landscape and flow metrics affecting the distribution of a federally-threatened fish: Improving management, model fit, and model transferability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worthington, Thomas A.; Zhang, T.; Logue, Daniel R.; Mittelstet, Aaron R.; Brewer, Shannon K.

    2016-01-01

    Truncated distributions of pelagophilic fishes have been observed across the Great Plains of North America, with water use and landscape fragmentation implicated as contributing factors. Developing conservation strategies for these species is hindered by the existence of multiple competing flow regime hypotheses related to species persistence. Our primary study objective was to compare the predicted distributions of one pelagophil, the Arkansas River Shiner Notropis girardi, constructed using different flow regime metrics. Further, we investigated different approaches for improving temporal transferability of the species distribution model (SDM). We compared four hypotheses: mean annual flow (a baseline), the 75th percentile of daily flow, the number of zero-flow days, and the number of days above 55th percentile flows, to examine the relative importance of flows during the spawning period. Building on an earlier SDM, we added covariates that quantified wells in each catchment, point source discharges, and non-native species presence to a structured variable framework. We assessed the effects on model transferability and fit by reducing multicollinearity using Spearman’s rank correlations, variance inflation factors, and principal component analysis, as well as altering the regularization coefficient (β) within MaxEnt. The 75th percentile of daily flow was the most important flow metric related to structuring the species distribution. The number of wells and point source discharges were also highly ranked. At the default level of β, model transferability was improved using all methods to reduce collinearity; however, at higher levels of β, the correlation method performed best. Using β = 5 provided the best model transferability, while retaining the majority of variables that contributed 95% to the model. This study provides a workflow for improving model transferability and also presents water-management options that may be considered to improve the

  20. Evaluating the effect of corridors and landscape heterogeneity on dispersal probability: a comparison of three spatially explicit modelling approaches

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jepsen, J. U.; Baveco, J. M.; Topping, C. J.

    2004-01-01

    Spatially explicit simulation models of varying degree of complexity are increasingly used in landscape and species management and conservation. The choice as to which type of model to employ in a particular situation, is however, far too often governed by logistic constraints and the personal...... and demographics (IBPM)). The IBPM was analysed in two versions (IBPM_st and IBPM_dyn). Both assumed spatial heterogeneity of the matrix, but the IBPM_dyn in addition included temporal matrix dynamics. The models were developed with a shared minimum objective, namely to predict dynamics of individuals...

  1. Environmental gamma radiation measurement in district Swat, Pakistan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jabbar, T; Khan, K; Subhani, M S; Akhter, P; Jabbar, A

    2008-01-01

    External exposure to environmental gamma ray sources is an important component of exposure to the public. A survey was carried out to determine activity concentration levels and associated doses from (226)Ra, (232)Th, (40)K and (137)Cs by means of high-resolution gamma ray spectrometry in the Swat district, famous for tourism. The mean concentrations for (226)Ra, (232)Th and (40)K were found to be 50.4 +/- 0.7, 34.8 +/- 0.7 and 434.5 +/- 7.4 Bq kg(-1), respectively, in soil samples, which are slightly more than the world average values. However, (137)Cs was only found in the soil sample of Barikot with an activity concentration of 34 +/- 1.2 Bq kg(-1). Only (40)K was determined in vegetation samples with an average activity of 172.2 +/- 1.7 Bq kg(-1), whereas in water samples, all radionuclides were found below lower limits of detection. The radium equivalent activity in all soil samples is lower than the limit set in the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development report (370 Bq kg(-1)). The value of the external exposure dose has been determined from the content of these radionuclides in soil. The average terrestrial gamma air absorbed dose rate was observed to be 62.4 nGy h(-1), which yields an annual effective dose of 0.08 mSv. The average value of the annual effective dose lies close to the global range of outdoor radiation exposure given in United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation. However, the main component of the radiation dose to the population residing in the study area arises from cosmic ray due to high altitude.

  2. Predicting which species will benefit from corridors in fragmented landscapes from population growth models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hudgens, Brian R.; Haddad, Nick M.

    2003-05-01

    abstract: Connecting isolated patches of habitat in fragmented landscapes with corridors is a popular conservation strategy. This strategy is also controversial in large part because of uncertainty about what characteristics of a species and its environment promote corridor use. In this article we address the question, For what types of species will populations benefit from corridors? We asked this question using a model of two logistically growing populations connected by migration in which both emigration and migration success were determined by the presence or absence of a corridor. We found that in the short run (e.g., during recovery from disaster), corridors are most effective for species with fast-growing populations that have low survivorship when dispersing through unsuitable (matrix) habitat. We also found that emigration rates and habitat-specific mortality rates are key determinants of the effects of corridors on population size. In the long term, corridors are most likely to benefit species with slow-growing populations that have low survivorship when dispersing through matrix habitat. Our results confirm the major conclusions from previous empirical studies of corridor benefits. However, most studies fail to consider the most appropriate questions to determine the potential benefits of habitat corridors. First, what is the time scale of the conservation goal? Corridors have positive effects on different suites of species in the short and long term. Second, is the major threat of local extinction due to sustained population decline or boom-bust cycles? Third, what is the migration rate through the matrix? Fourth, what fraction of migrants dispersing through the matrix successfully immigrate to another patch?

  3. Detailed analysis of an Eigen quasispecies model in a periodically moving sharp-peak landscape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neves, Armando G. M.

    2010-09-01

    The Eigen quasispecies model in a periodically moving sharp-peak landscape considered in previous seminal works [M. Nilsson and N. Snoad, Phys. Rev. Lett. 84, 191 (2000)10.1103/PhysRevLett.84.191] and [C. Ronnewinkel , in Theoretical Aspects of Evolutionary Computing, edited by L. Kallel, B. Naudts, and A. Rogers (Springer-Verlag, Heidelberg, 2001)] is analyzed in greater detail. We show here, through a more rigorous analysis, that results in those papers are qualitatively correct. In particular, we obtain a phase diagram for the existence of a quasispecies with the same shape as in the above cited paper by C. Ronnewinkel , with upper and lower thresholds for the mutation rate between which a quasispecies may survive. A difference is that the upper value is larger and the lower value is smaller than the previously reported ones, so that the range for quasispecies existence is always larger than thought before. The quantitative information provided might also be important in understanding genetic variability in virus populations and has possible applications in antiviral therapies. The results in the quoted papers were obtained by studying the populations only at some few genomes. As we will show, this amounts to diagonalizing a 3×3 matrix. Our work is based instead in a different division of the population allowing a finer control of the populations at various relevant genetic sequences. The existence of a quasispecies will be related to Perron-Frobenius eigenvalues. Although huge matrices of sizes 2ℓ , where ℓ is the genome length, may seem necessary at a first look, we show that such large sizes are not necessary and easily obtain numerical and analytical results for their eigenvalues.

  4. Reducing fertilizer-nitrogen losses from rowcrop landscapes: Insights and implications from a spatially explicit watershed model

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLellan, Eileen; Schilling, Keith; Robertson, Dale

    2015-01-01

    We present conceptual and quantitative models that predict changes in fertilizer-derived nitrogen delivery from rowcrop landscapes caused by agricultural conservation efforts implemented to reduce nutrient inputs and transport and increase nutrient retention in the landscape. To evaluate the relative importance of changes in the sources, transport, and sinks of fertilizer-derived nitrogen across a region, we use the spatially explicit SPAtially Referenced Regression On Watershed attributes watershed model to map the distribution, at the small watershed scale within the Upper Mississippi-Ohio River Basin (UMORB), of: (1) fertilizer inputs; (2) nutrient attenuation during delivery of those inputs to the UMORB outlet; and (3) nitrogen export from the UMORB outlet. Comparing these spatial distributions suggests that the amount of fertilizer input and degree of nutrient attenuation are both important in determining the extent of nitrogen export. From a management perspective, this means that agricultural conservation efforts to reduce nitrogen export would benefit by: (1) expanding their focus to include activities that restore and enhance nutrient processing in these highly altered landscapes; and (2) targeting specific types of best management practices to watersheds where they will be most valuable. Doing so successfully may result in a shift in current approaches to conservation planning, outreach, and funding.

  5. Modeling the effects of land cover and use on landscape capability for urban ungulate populations: Chapter 11

    Science.gov (United States)

    Underwood, Harold; Kilheffer, Chellby R.; Francis, Robert A.; Millington, James D. A.; Chadwick, Michael A.

    2016-01-01

    Expanding ungulate populations are causing concerns for wildlife professionals and residents in many urban areas worldwide. Nowhere is the phenomenon more apparent than in the eastern US, where urban white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus) populations are increasing. Most habitat suitability models for deer have been developed in rural areas and across large (>1000 km2) spatial extents. Only recently have we begun to understand the factors that contribute to space use by deer over much smaller spatial extents. In this study, we explore the concepts, terminology, methodology and state-of-the-science in wildlife abundance modeling as applied to overabundant deer populations across heterogeneous urban landscapes. We used classified, high-resolution digital orthoimagery to extract landscape characteristics in several urban areas of upstate New York. In addition, we assessed deer abundance and distribution in 1-km2 blocks across each study area from either aerial surveys or ground-based distance sampling. We recorded the number of detections in each block and used binomial mixture models to explore important relationships between abundance and key landscape features. Finally, we cross-validated statistical models of abundance and compared covariate relationships across study sites. Study areas were characterized along a gradient of urbanization based on the proportions of impervious surfaces and natural vegetation which, based on the best-supported models, also distinguished blocks potentially occupied by deer. Models performed better at identifying occurrence of deer and worse at predicting abundance in cross-validation comparisons. We attribute poor predictive performance to differences in deer population trajectories over time. The proportion of impervious surfaces often yielded better predictions of abundance and occurrence than did the proportion of natural vegetation, which we attribute to a lack of certain land cover classes during cold and snowy winters

  6. Use of individual-based forest succession models to link physiological whole-tree models to landscape-scale ecosystem models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huston, Michael A.

    1991-01-01

    Models of the spatial and temporal dynamics of forests that are based on competition between individual plants can be used to predict changes in the abundance of different tree species that result from natural succession or environmental change. These individual-based models can be designed to take into account important physiological and chemical properties of individual species, and thus provide a mechanism for scaling up the predictions of whole-plant physiological process models to intermediate-scale patterns in ecosystems and landscapes. Because plant species differ greatly in such properties as carbon fixation and evapotranspiration rates, models that predict species composition could provide information on the distribution of parameter values used as input for large-scale (e.g., "big leaf") models of regional vegetation-atmosphere interactions.

  7. Modeling forest site productivity using mapped geospatial attributes within a South Carolina landscape, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    B.R. Parresol; D.A. Scott; S.J. Zarnoch; L.A. Edwards; J.I. Blake

    2017-01-01

    Spatially explicit mapping of forest productivity is important to assess many forest management alternatives. We assessed the relationship between mapped variables and site index of forests ranging from southern pine plantations to natural hardwoods on a 74,000-ha landscape in South Carolina, USA. Mapped features used in the analysis were soil association, land use...

  8. Restoring habitat corridors in fragmented landscapes using optimization and percolation models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justin C. Williams; Stephanie A. Snyder

    2005-01-01

    Landscape fragmentation and habitat loss are significant threats to the conservation of biological diversity. Creating and restoring corridors between isolated habitat patches can help mitigate or reverse the impacts of fragmentation. It is important that restoration and protection efforts be undertaken in the most efficient and effective way possible because...

  9. Three-Dimensional Soil Landscape Modeling: A Potential Earth Science Teaching Tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmid, Brian M.; Manu, Andrew; Norton, Amy E.

    2009-01-01

    Three-dimensional visualization is helpful in understanding soils, and three dimensional (3-D) tools are gaining popularity in teaching earth sciences. Those tools are still somewhat underused in soil science, yet soil properties such as texture, color, and organic carbon content vary both vertically and horizontally across the landscape. These…

  10. Transcriptional landscape estimation from tiling array data using a model of signal shift and drift

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rasmussen, Simon; Jarmer, Hanne Østergaard; Nicolas, P

    2009-01-01

    MOTIVATION: High-density oligonucleotide tiling array technology holds the promise of a better description of the complexity and the dynamics of transcriptional landscapes. In organisms such as bacteria and yeasts, transcription can be measured on a genome-wide scale with a resolution >25 bp...

  11. Using landscape metrics to model source habitat for Neotropical migrants in the midwestern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peter T. Fauth; Eric J. Gustafson; Kerry N. Rabenold

    2000-01-01

    Size of a forest patch is a useful predictor of density and reproductive success of Neotropical migratory birds in much of eastern North America. Within these forested landscapes, large forest tracts appear to be sources-fragments in which surpluses of offspring are produced and can potentially colonize new fragments including woodlot sinks where reproduction fails to...

  12. Modeling of hydroecological feedbacks predicts distinct classes of landscape pattern, process, and restoration potential in shallow aquatic ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsen, Laurel G.; Harvey, Judson W.

    2011-01-01

    It is widely recognized that interactions between vegetation and flow cause the emergence of channel patterns that are distinct from the standard Schumm classification of river channels. Although landscape pattern is known to be linked to ecosystem services such as habitat provision, pollutant removal, and sustaining biodiversity, the mechanisms responsible for the development and stability of different landscape patterns in shallow, vegetated flows have remained poorly understood. Fortunately, recent advances have made possible large-scale models of flow through vegetated environments that can be run over a range of environmental variables and over timescales of millennia. We describe a new, quasi-3D cellular automata model that couples simulations of shallow-water flow, bed shear stresses, sediment transport, and vegetation dynamics in an efficient manner. That efficiency allowed us to apply the model widely in order to determine how different hydroecological feedbacks control landscape pattern and process in various types of wetlands and floodplains. Distinct classes of landscape pattern were uniquely associated with specific types of allogenic and autogenic drivers in wetland flows. Regular, anisotropically patterned wetlands were dominated by allogenic processes (i.e., processes driven by periodic high water levels and flow velocities that redistribute sediment), relative to autogenic processes (e.g., vegetation production, peat accretion, and gravitational erosion). These anistropically patterned wetlands are therefore particularly prone to hydrologic disturbance. Other classes of wetlands that emerged from simulated interactions included maze-patterned, amorphous, and topographically noisy marshes, open marsh with islands, banded string-pool sequences perpendicular to flow, parallel deep and narrow channels flanked by marsh, and ridge-and-slough patterned marsh oriented parallel to flow. Because vegetation both affects and responds to the balance between the

  13. SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff – a Vietnam river basin study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Vu

    2012-08-01

    Full Text Available Many research studies that focus on basin hydrology have applied the SWAT model using station data to simulate runoff. But over regions lacking robust station data, there is a problem of applying the model to study the hydrological responses. For some countries and remote areas, the rainfall data availability might be a constraint due to many different reasons such as lacking of technology, war time and financial limitation that lead to difficulty in constructing the runoff data. To overcome such a limitation, this research study uses some of the available globally gridded high resolution precipitation datasets to simulate runoff. Five popular gridded observation precipitation datasets: (1 Asian Precipitation Highly Resolved Observational Data Integration Towards the Evaluation of Water Resources (APHRODITE, (2 Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM, (3 Precipitation Estimation from Remote Sensing Information using Artificial Neural Network (PERSIANN, (4 Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP, (5 a modified version of Global Historical Climatology Network (GHCN2 and one reanalysis dataset, National Centers for Environment Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCEP/NCAR are used to simulate runoff over the Dak Bla river (a small tributary of the Mekong River in Vietnam. Wherever possible, available station data are also used for comparison. Bilinear interpolation of these gridded datasets is used to input the precipitation data at the closest grid points to the station locations. Sensitivity Analysis and Auto-calibration are performed for the SWAT model. The Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE and Coefficient of Determination (R2 indices are used to benchmark the model performance. Results indicate that the APHRODITE dataset performed very well on a daily scale simulation of discharge having a good NSE of 0.54 and R2 of 0.55, when compared to the discharge simulation using station data (0

  14. The Application of GIS 3D Modeling and Analysis Technology in Real Estate Mass Appraisal - Taking landscape and sunlight factors as the example

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, H.; Li, Y.; Liu, B.; Liu, C.

    2014-04-01

    Based on procedural modeling approach and buildings 2D GIS data of Shenzhen, 3D external models of buildings are generated by CityEngine in a quick and batch mode. And 3D internal model is generated by vectorization of houses distribution within the target building. Following that, the landscape analysis and the sunlight analysis based on GIS visibility analysis method are applied on 3D model of the target building to get the concrete quantization indexes, such as landscape visual range and sunshine duration which could significantly influence real estate value. Finally, the drawing with 3D visualization effect for landscape information and sunshine information is produced. Compared with traditional manual modeling method, the results showed that rule-based 3D modeling method in CityEngine platform could take full advantage of existing GIS data. It could improve the efficiency of 3D modeling by rapidly and automatically generate refined building 3D models in batch mode. Meanwhile, compared with man-made subjective judgment, the building landscape and sunlight analysis model built by visibility analysis could quantify landscape and sunshine indexes more accurately. Furthermore, the application in real estate mass appraisal model for calculation and analysis will reduce the index errors caused by man-made subjective judgment. In addition, precise 3D visualization effect can provide appraisers with more intuitive and efficient view for real estate expression. It greatly improves the efficiency and accuracy in real estate appraisal.

  15. Hierarchical multi-taxa models inform riparian vs. hydrologic restoration of urban streams in a permeable landscape.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gwinn, Daniel C; Middleton, Jen A; Beesley, Leah; Close, Paul; Quinton, Belinda; Storer, Tim; Davies, Peter M

    2018-03-01

    The degradation of streams caused by urbanization tends to follow predictable patterns; however, there is a growing appreciation for heterogeneity in stream response to urbanization due to the local geoclimatic context. Furthermore, there is building evidence that streams in mildly sloped, permeable landscapes respond uncharacteristically to urban stress calling for a more nuanced approach to restoration. We evaluated the relative influence of local-scale riparian characteristics and catchment-scale imperviousness on the macroinvertebrate assemblages of streams in the flat, permeable urban landscape of Perth, Western Australia. Using a hierarchical multi-taxa model, we predicted the outcomes of stylized stream restoration strategies to increase the riparian integrity at the local scale or decrease the influences of imperviousness at the catchment scale. In the urban streams of Perth, we show that local-scale riparian restoration can influence the structure of macroinvertebrate assemblages to a greater degree than managing the influences of catchment-scale imperviousness. We also observed an interaction between the effect of riparian integrity and imperviousness such that the effect of increased riparian integrity was enhanced at lower levels of catchment imperviousness. This study represents one of few conducted in flat, permeable landscapes and the first aimed at informing urban stream restoration in Perth, adding to the growing appreciation for heterogeneity of the Urban Stream Syndrome and its importance for urban stream restoration. © 2017 by the Ecological Society of America.

  16. Landscape genomics: A brief perspective [Chapter 9

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michael K. Schwartz; Gordon Luikart; Kevin S. McKelvey; Samuel A. Cushman

    2010-01-01

    Landscape genetics is the amalgamation of population genetics and landscape ecology (see Manel et al. 2003; Storfer et al. 2007). In Chapter 17, we discuss landscape genetics and provide two examples of applications in the area of modeling population connectivity and inferring fragmentation. These examples, like virtually all extant landscape genetic analyses, were...

  17. Time series evaluation of landscape dynamics using annual Landsat imagery and spatial statistical modeling: Evidence from the Phoenix metropolitan region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fan, Chao; Myint, Soe W.; Rey, Sergio J.; Li, Wenwen

    2017-06-01

    Urbanization is a natural and social process involving simultaneous changes to the Earth's land systems, energy flow, demographics, and the economy. Understanding the spatiotemporal pattern of urbanization is increasingly important for policy formulation, decision making, and natural resource management. A combination of satellite remote sensing and patch-based models has been widely adopted to characterize landscape changes at various spatial and temporal scales. Nevertheless, the validity of this type of framework in identifying long-term changes, especially subtle or gradual land modifications is seriously challenged. In this paper, we integrate annual image time series, continuous spatial indices, and non-parametric trend analysis into a spatiotemporal study of landscape dynamics over the Phoenix metropolitan area from 1991 to 2010. We harness local indicators of spatial dependence and modified Mann-Kendall test to describe the monotonic trends in the quantity and spatial arrangement of two important land use land cover types: vegetation and built-up areas. Results suggest that declines in vegetation and increases in built-up areas are the two prevalent types of changes across the region. Vegetation increases mostly occur at the outskirts where new residential areas are developed from natural desert. A sizable proportion of vegetation declines and built-up increases are seen in the central and southeast part. Extensive land conversion from agricultural fields into urban land use is one important driver of vegetation declines. The xeriscaping practice also contributes to part of vegetation loss and an increasingly heterogeneous landscape. The quantitative framework proposed in this study provides a pathway to effective landscape mapping and change monitoring from a spatial statistical perspective.

  18. Landscape relatedness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Norman, Anita J; Strønen, Astrid Vik; Fuglstad, Geir-Arne

    2017-01-01

    Context Methods for detecting contemporary, fine-scale population genetic structure in continuous populations are scarce. Yet such methods are vital for ecological and conservation studies, particularly under a changing landscape. Objectives Here we present a novel, spatially explicit method...... that we call landscape relatedness (LandRel). With this method, we aim to detect contemporary, fine-scale population structure that is sensitive to spatial and temporal changes in the landscape. Methods We interpolate spatially determined relatedness values based on SNP genotypes across the landscape...

  19. Modelling hydrological processes and analysing water-related ecosystem services of Western Siberian lowland basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmalz, Britta; Kiesel, Jens; Kruse, Marion; Pfannerstill, Matthias; Sheludkov, Artyom; Khoroshavin, Vitaliy; Veshkurseva, Tatyana; Müller, Felix; Fohrer, Nicola

    2015-04-01

    For discussing and planning sustainable land management of river basins, stakeholders need suitable information on spatio-temporal patterns of hydrological components and ecosystem services. The ecosystem services concept, i.e., services provided by ecosystems that contribute to human welfare benefits, contributes comprehensive information for sustainable river management. This study shows an approach to use ecohydrological modelling results for quantifying and assessing water-related ecosystem services in three lowland river basins in Western Siberia, a region which is of global significance in terms of carbon sequestration, agricultural production and biodiversity preservation. Using the ecohydrological model SWAT, the three basins Pyschma (16762 km²), Vagai (3348 km²) and Loktinka (373 km²) were modelled following a gradient from the landscape units taiga, pre-taiga to forest steppe. For a correct representation of the Siberian lowland hydrology, the consideration of snow melt and retention of surface runoff as well as the implementation of a second groundwater aquifer was of great importance. Good to satisfying model performances were obtained for the extreme hydrological conditions. The simulated SWAT output variables of different hydrological processes were used as indicators for the two regulating services water flow and erosion regulation. The model results were translated into a relative ecosystem service valuation scale. The resulting ecosystem service maps show different spatial and seasonal patterns. Although the high resolution modelling results are averaged out within the aggregated relative valuation scale, seasonal differences can be depicted: during snowmelt, low relevant regulation can be determined, especially for water flow regulation, but a very high relevant regulation was calculated for the vegetation period during summer and for the winter period. The SWAT model serves as a suitable quantification method for the assessment of water

  20. Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART 5 for Modeling Airborne and Satellite Spectroradiometer and LIDAR Acquisitions of Natural and Urban Landscapes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Philippe Gastellu-Etchegorry

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available Satellite and airborne optical sensors are increasingly used by scientists, and policy makers, and managers for studying and managing forests, agriculture crops, and urban areas. Their data acquired with given instrumental specifications (spectral resolution, viewing direction, sensor field-of-view, etc. and for a specific experimental configuration (surface and atmosphere conditions, sun direction, etc. are commonly translated into qualitative and quantitative Earth surface parameters. However, atmosphere properties and Earth surface 3D architecture often confound their interpretation. Radiative transfer models capable of simulating the Earth and atmosphere complexity are, therefore, ideal tools for linking remotely sensed data to the surface parameters. Still, many existing models are oversimplifying the Earth-atmosphere system interactions and their parameterization of sensor specifications is often neglected or poorly considered. The Discrete Anisotropic Radiative Transfer (DART model is one of the most comprehensive physically based 3D models simulating the Earth-atmosphere radiation interaction from visible to thermal infrared wavelengths. It has been developed since 1992. It models optical signals at the entrance of imaging radiometers and laser scanners on board of satellites and airplanes, as well as the 3D radiative budget, of urban and natural landscapes for any experimental configuration and instrumental specification. It is freely distributed for research and teaching activities. This paper presents DART physical bases and its latest functionality for simulating imaging spectroscopy of natural and urban landscapes with atmosphere, including the perspective projection of airborne acquisitions and LIght Detection And Ranging (LIDAR waveform and photon counting signals.

  1. Conceptual model development for landscape management in the mountains of the Indian Himalayan region: an approach for sustainable socio-ecological development

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sunil Nautiyal

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This study aims at presenting a conceptual model for landscape management in the Himalayan region of India, using quantitative/mathematical approach. Keeping in view the requirement, (based on fifteen years empirical field work in the Himalayan region and as well as literature survey the MODAM (Multiple Objectives Decision Support Tools for Landscape Management model along with linear programming approach was adopted with a view to presenting additional methodological perspectives on interdisciplinary landscape research. The work has stemmed out from the original research contribution, which tries to integrate interdisciplinary research planning with landscape management related research in the Himalayan region. This biodiversity hotspot has relatively high complexity in terms of sustainable socioeconomic development vis a vis conservation and management of the resources. The concepts and insights presented in this article will provide the basis for a discussion, on decisionmaking issues among multidisciplinary experts with regard to sustainable socioecological development within complex environments.

  2. SWAT.nz: New-Zeland-based "Sand Waves and Turbulence" experimental programme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coleman, Stephen; Nikora, Vladimir; Melville, Bruce; Goring, Derek; Clunie, Thomas; Friedrich, Heide

    2008-06-01

    The SWAT.nz ("New-Zealand-based Sand Waves and Turbulence") research programme was carried out to advance understanding of subaqueous sand waves. The programme was based around detailed measurements at varying scales of bed morphologies and associated flow fields as sand waves formed from plane-bed conditions and grew to equilibrium. This paper outlines the philosophy and details of the SWAT.nz programme, with the aim of providing insight into experiment and analysis design and methodologies for studies of highly-variable bed surfaces and flows. Example challenges addressed in the SWAT.nz programme include the measurement over large spatial domains of developing flow fields and three-dimensional bed morphology, including flow measurements below roughness (sand-wave) crests, and how to interpret the collected measurements. Insights into sand-wave dynamics that have arisen from the programme are presented to illustrate the values of the SWAT.nz programme and the developed methodologies. Results are presented in terms of mobile-bed processes, and flow-bed interaction and flow processes for fixed-bed roughness and erodible beds, respectively.

  3. Contributing towards a conceptual model of soil-landscape co-evolution: observations from historic mining sites in Alberta, Canada

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raab, Thomas; Naeth, Anne; Hirsch, Florian; Raab, Alexandra

    2016-04-01

    characteristic geomorphology of the prairie can be found in landscape (i). Distinct differences are found in properties and types of soils in these four landscapes. Natural soils and pile soils characteristically differ in parent material and soil horizons. No information is gathered yet for the reclaimed soils and the landslides soils due to prohibited access. However, based on what we find at the former Diplomat Mine we can conclude that distribution, development and properties of unreclaimed soils in historical open cast mines in Alberta are primarily controlled by parent material and topography. The geomorphological set-up is dominating the trajectory of vegetation development and post-mining geomorphodynamics. Contrasting slope aspects determine micro climatic conditions and lead to different vegetation types. This has likely had an effect on soil development and soil properties (especially carbon stocks). Further studies will be conducted to quantify these differing soil properties to refine this conceptual model of initial pedogenesis and soil distribution on very young landforms in the prairie landscapes.

  4. Analyses of PWR spent fuel composition using SCALE and SWAT code systems to find correction factors for criticality safety applications adopting burnup credit

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shin, Hee Sung; Suyama, Kenya; Mochizuki, Hiroki; Okuno, Hiroshi; Nomura, Yasushi [Japan Atomic Energy Research Inst., Tokai, Ibaraki (Japan). Tokai Research Establishment

    2001-01-01

    The isotopic composition calculations were performed for 26 spent fuel samples from the Obrigheim PWR reactor and 55 spent fuel samples from 7 PWR reactors using the SAS2H module of the SCALE4.4 code system with 27, 44 and 238 group cross-section libraries and the SWAT code system with the 107 group cross-section library. For the analyses of samples from the Obrigheim PWR reactor, geometrical models were constructed for each of SCALE4.4/SAS2H and SWAT. For the analyses of samples from 7 PWR reactors, the geometrical model already adopted in the SCALE/SAS2H was directly converted to the model of SWAT. The four kinds of calculation results were compared with the measured data. For convenience, the ratio of the measured to calculated values was used as a parameter. When the ratio is less than unity, the calculation overestimates the measurement, and the ratio becomes closer to unity, they have a better agreement. For many important nuclides for burnup credit criticality safety evaluation, the four methods applied in this study showed good coincidence with measurements in general. More precise observations showed, however: (1) Less unity ratios were found for Pu-239 and -241 for selected 16 samples out of the 26 samples from the Obrigheim reactor (10 samples were deselected because their burnups were measured with Cs-137 non-destructive method, less reliable than Nd-148 method the rest 16 samples were measured with); (2) Larger than unity ratios were found for Am-241 and Cm-242 for both the 16 and 55 samples; (3) Larger than unity ratios were found for Sm-149 for the 55 samples; (4) SWAT was generally accompanied by larger ratios than those of SAS2H with some exceptions. Based on the measured-to-calculated ratios for 71 samples of a combined set in which 16 selected samples and 55 samples were included, the correction factors that should be multiplied to the calculated isotopic compositions were generated for a conservative estimate of the neutron multiplication factor

  5. Landscape Builder: software for the creation of initial landscapes for LANDIS from FIA data

    Science.gov (United States)

    William. Dijak

    2013-01-01

    I developed Landscape Builder to create spatially explicit landscapes as starting conditions for LANDIS Pro 7.0 and LANDIS II landscape forest simulation models from classified satellite imagery and Forest Inventory and Analysis (FIA) data collected over multiple years. LANDIS Pro and LANDIS II models project future landscapes by simulating tree growth, tree species...

  6. Modeling individual movement decisions of brown hare (Lepus europaeus) as a key concept for realistic spatial behavior and exposure: A population model for landscape-level risk assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleinmann, Joachim U; Wang, Magnus

    2017-09-01

    Spatial behavior is of crucial importance for the risk assessment of pesticides and for the assessment of effects of agricultural practice or multiple stressors, because it determines field use, exposition, and recovery. Recently, population models have increasingly been used to understand the mechanisms driving risk and recovery or to conduct landscape-level risk assessments. To include spatial behavior appropriately in population models for use in risk assessments, a new method, "probabilistic walk," was developed, which simulates the detailed daily movement of individuals by taking into account food resources, vegetation cover, and the presence of conspecifics. At each movement step, animals decide where to move next based on probabilities being determined from this information. The model was parameterized to simulate populations of brown hares (Lepus europaeus). A detailed validation of the model demonstrated that it can realistically reproduce various natural patterns of brown hare ecology and behavior. Simulated proportions of time animals spent in fields (PT values) were also comparable to field observations. It is shown that these important parameters for the risk assessment may, however, vary in different landscapes. The results demonstrate the value of using population models to reduce uncertainties in risk assessment and to better understand which factors determine risk in a landscape context. Environ Toxicol Chem 2017;36:2299-2307. © 2017 SETAC. © 2017 SETAC.

  7. A Transient Landscape: Geospatial Analysis and Numerical Modeling of Coastal Geomorphology in the Outer Banks, North Carolina

    Science.gov (United States)

    Har