WorldWideScience

Sample records for sustainable early warning

  1. A Sustainable Early Warning System for Climate Change Impacts on Water Quality Management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, T.; Tung, C.; Chung, N.

    2007-12-01

    In this era of rapid social and technological change leading to interesting life complexity and environmental displacement, both positive and negative effects among ecosystems call for a balance in which there are impacts by climate changes. Early warning systems for climate change impacts are necessary in order to allow society as a whole to properly and usefully assimilate the masses of new information and knowledge. Therefore, our research addresses to build up a sustainable early warning mechanism. The main goal is to mitigate the cumulative impacts on the environment of climate change and enhance adaptive capacities. An effective early warning system has been proven for protection. However, there is a problem that estimate future climate changes would be faced with high uncertainty. In general, take estimations for climate change impacts would use the data from General Circulation Models and take the analysis as the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change declared. We follow the course of the method for analyzing climate change impacts and attempt to accomplish the sustainable early warning system for water quality management. Climate changes impact not only on individual situation but on short-term variation and long-term gradually changes. This kind characteristic should adopt the suitable warning system for long-term formulation and short- term operation. To continue the on-going research of the long-term early warning system for climate change impacts on water quality management, the short-term early warning system is established by using local observation data for reappraising the warning issue. The combination of long-term and short-term system can provide more circumstantial details. In Taiwan, a number of studies have revealed that climate change impacts on water quality, especially in arid period, the concentration of biological oxygen demand may turn into worse. Rapid population growth would also inflict injury on its assimilative capacity to

  2. Gender and Early Warning

    OpenAIRE

    Schmeidl, Susanne

    2016-01-01

    This paper argues that the introduction of gender into early warning will lead to more practical, realistic and usable early warning approaches, especially if early warning is understood as a flexible system that is sensitive to the diverse situations or on the ground necessitating customised solution. A gender-sensitive approach can enhance early warning models in their basic assumption (what we consider as important or not and the questions we are asking), in their modelling (incorporating ...

  3. Early warning scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-27

    A free app available from the Apple App Store is aimed at supporting health professionals in Wales to use the National Early Warning Score (NEWS). The tool helps staff identify patients who are developing serious illness.

  4. Crowdsourced earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Brooks, Benjamin A.; Glennie, Craig L.; Murray, Jessica R.; Langbein, John O.; Owen, Susan E.; Heaton, Thomas H.; Iannucci, Robert A.; Hauser, Darren L.

    2015-01-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) can reduce harm to people and infrastructure from earthquakes and tsunamis, but it has not been implemented in most high earthquake-risk regions because of prohibitive cost. Common consumer devices such as smartphones contain low-cost versions of the sensors used in EEW. Although less accurate than scientific-grade instruments, these sensors are globally ubiquitous. Through controlled tests of consumer devices, simulation of an Mw (moment magnitude) 7 earthquake on California’s Hayward fault, and real data from the Mw 9 Tohoku-oki earthquake, we demonstrate that EEW could be achieved via crowdsourcing.

  5. Early warning scores: a health warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Challen, Kirsty; Roland, Damian

    2016-11-01

    Early warning scores are frequently used in UK adult emergency departments (EDs) and are gaining traction in paediatric emergency care. Like many innovations with inherent face validity, they have great appeal to clinicians, managers and commissioners. However, it is important to ensure unintended consequences and balancing measures are mitigated. We review the background to their development and introduction in the ED, the evidence for their usefulness, their limitations in our field and areas for further research. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://www.bmj.com/company/products-services/rights-and-licensing/.

  6. Tsunamis: Monitoring, Detection, and Early Warning Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Morrissey, Wayne A

    2005-01-01

    ...) to develop a regional tsunami detection and warning network that would guard coastal populations around the Indian Ocean. Those efforts would coincide with the United States goal of upgrading and expanding its tsunami detection and early warning network.

  7. Earthquake Early Warning and Public Policy: Opportunities and Challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goltz, J. D.; Bourque, L.; Tierney, K.; Riopelle, D.; Shoaf, K.; Seligson, H.; Flores, P.

    2003-12-01

    Development of an earthquake early warning capability and pilot project were objectives of TriNet, a 5-year (1997-2001) FEMA-funded project to develop a state-of-the-art digital seismic network in southern California. In parallel with research to assemble a protocol for rapid analysis of earthquake data and transmission of a signal by TriNet scientists and engineers, the public policy, communication and educational issues inherent in implementation of an earthquake early warning system were addressed by TriNet's outreach component. These studies included: 1) a survey that identified potential users of an earthquake early warning system and how an earthquake early warning might be used in responding to an event, 2) a review of warning systems and communication issues associated with other natural hazards and how lessons learned might be applied to an alerting system for earthquakes, 3) an analysis of organization, management and public policy issues that must be addressed if a broad-based warning system is to be developed and 4) a plan to provide earthquake early warnings to a small number of organizations in southern California as an experimental prototype. These studies provided needed insights into the social and cultural environment in which this new technology will be introduced, an environment with opportunities to enhance our response capabilities but also an environment with significant barriers to overcome to achieve a system that can be sustained and supported. In this presentation we will address the main public policy issues that were subjects of analysis in these studies. They include a discussion of the possible division of functions among organizations likely to be the principle partners in the management of an earthquake early warning system. Drawing on lessons learned from warning systems for other hazards, we will review the potential impacts of false alarms and missed events on warning system credibility, the acceptability of fully automated

  8. Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) Contributions to Strengthening Resilience and Sustainability for the East African Community

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, M. E.; Galu, G.; Funk, C. C.; Verdin, J. P.; Rowland, J.

    2014-12-01

    The Planning for Resilience in East Africa through Policy, Adaptation, Research, and Economic Development (PREPARED) is a multi-organizational project aimed at mainstreaming climate-resilient development planning and program implementation into the East African Community (EAC). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has partnered with the PREPARED project to address three key development challenges for the EAC; 1) increasing resiliency to climate change, 2) managing trans-boundary freshwater biodiversity and conservation and 3) improving access to drinking water supply and sanitation services. USGS FEWS NET has been instrumental in the development of gridded climate data sets that are the fundamental building blocks for climate change adaptation studies in the region. Tools such as the Geospatial Climate Tool (GeoCLIM) have been developed to interpolate time-series grids of precipitation and temperature values from station observations and associated satellite imagery, elevation data, and other spatially continuous fields. The GeoCLIM tool also allows the identification of anomalies and assessments of both their frequency of occurrence and directional trends. A major effort has been put forth to build the capacities of local and regional institutions to use GeoCLIM to integrate their station data (which is not typically available to the public) into improved national and regional gridded climate data sets. In addition to the improvements and capacity building activities related to geospatial analysis tools, FEWS NET will assist in two other areas; 1) downscaling of climate change scenarios and 2) vulnerability impact assessments. FEWS NET will provide expertise in statistical downscaling of Global Climate Model output fields and work with regional institutions to assess results of other downscaling methods. Completion of a vulnerability impact assessment (VIA) involves the examination of sectoral consequences in identified climate "hot spots". FEWS NET

  9. Sustainable nanomaterials? – How to apply “early warning signs” to screen nanomaterials for harmful properties

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Baun, Anders; Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2014-01-01

    such as novelty, persistency, whether materials are readily dispersed in the environment, and whether they bioaccumulate or lead to potentially irreversible action. Through an analysis of these criteria using five well‐known nanomaterials (titanium dioxide, carbon nanotubes, liposomes, poly(lacticcoglycolic acid...... endeavors. This presentation explores how the first lesson – “Acknowledge and respond to ignorance, uncertainty and risk in technology appraisal” could be applied to screen nanomaterials. In cases of ignorance, uncertainty and risk, the EEA recommends paying particular attention to important warning signs......) and nanoscale zero‐valent iron), it was found that only nanoTiO2 fulfils all the five criteria. Depending on the length of the nanotubes, carbon nanotubes fulfil 3 or 4 criteria whereas liposomes, poly(lactic‐co‐glycolic acid), nanoscale zero‐valent iron fulfil only one criteria. We will discuss how...

  10. The SuperNova Early Warning System

    OpenAIRE

    Scholberg, K.

    2008-01-01

    A core collapse in the Milky Way will produce an enormous burst of neutrinos in detectors world-wide. Such a burst has the potential to provide an early warning of a supernova's appearance. I will describe the nature of the signal, the sensitivity of current detectors, and SNEWS, the SuperNova Early Warning System, a network designed to alert astronomers as soon as possible after the detected neutrino signal.

  11. Early warning systems based on geospatial standards

    OpenAIRE

    Hilbring, D.; Bonn, G.

    2009-01-01

    The project EWS Transport (Early Warning System for Transportation Lines) analyses the potential of earthquake early warning for railway systems. The study focuses on rapidly producing an alert map during an ongoing earthquake as well as providing a shake map immediately after the strong-motion phase. Potential hazards for the railway system are estimated on the basis of the alert map. After the earthquake potential damages to the railway infrastructure are calculated based on the shake map. ...

  12. A survey of early warning technologies

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Smith, G.D.; Arlowe, H.D.; Williams, J.D.

    1995-07-01

    This paper presents a survey of technologies useful in providing early warning in physical security systems. Early warning is important in virtually all types of security systems whether they are used for temporary (tactical, portable, or semi-permanent) applications, border warning, fixed-site detection, or standoff surveillance detection. With the exception of the standoff surveillance detection systems, all systems discussed in this paper usually involve a moving target. The fact that a person(s) to be detected in a standoff surveillance scenario is not moving presents challenging problems and requires different applications of technology. The technologies commonly used to detect moving targets and some suggestions for detection of stationary targets are addressed in this paper.

  13. Tsunami early warning and decision support

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Steinmetz

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available An innovative newly developed modular and standards based Decision Support System (DSS is presented which forms part of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS. The GITEWS project stems from the effort to implement an effective and efficient Tsunami Early Warning and Mitigation System for the coast of Indonesia facing the Sunda Arc along the islands of Sumatra, Java and Bali. The geological setting along an active continental margin which is very close to densely populated areas is a particularly difficult one to cope with, because potential tsunamis' travel times are thus inherently short. National policies require an initial warning to be issued within the first five minutes after an earthquake has occurred. There is an urgent requirement for an end-to-end solution where the decision support takes the entire warning chain into account. The system of choice is based on pre-computed scenario simulations and rule-based decision support which is delivered to the decision maker through a sophisticated graphical user interface (GUI using information fusion and fast information aggregation to create situational awareness in the shortest time possible. The system also contains risk and vulnerability information which was designed with the far end of the warning chain in mind – it enables the decision maker to base his acceptance (or refusal of the supported decision also on regionally differentiated risk and vulnerability information (see Strunz et al., 2010. While the system strives to provide a warning as quickly as possible, it is not in its proper responsibility to send and disseminate the warning to the recipients. The DSS only broadcasts its messages to a dissemination system (and possibly any other dissemination system which is operated under the responsibility of BMKG – the meteorological, climatological and geophysical service of Indonesia – which also hosts the tsunami early warning center. The system is to be seen

  14. Childhood cancer: Early warning signs | Stones | Continuing ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Continuing Medical Education. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 28, No 7 (2010) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads. Username, Password, Remember me, or Register. Childhood cancer: Early warning signs. DK Stones. Abstract.

  15. How helpful are early warning scores?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carberry, Martin; Clements, Pauline; Headley, Elaine

    This article discusses a literature review examining UK practice and the origins, benefits and limitations of early warning scores. An accompanying article (page 15) discusses the introduction of clinical-based trigger questions to help ward-based nurses to identify patients whose condition is deteriorating.

  16. Early warning scores: unravelling detection and escalation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Gary B; Prytherch, David R; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this paper is to increase understanding of how patient deterioration is detected and how clinical care escalates when early warning score (EWS) systems are used. The authors critically review a recent National Early Warning Score paper published in IJHCQA using personal experience and EWS-related publications, and debate the difference between detection and escalation. Incorrect EWS choice or poorly understood EWS escalation may result in unnecessary workloads forward and responding staff. EWS system implementers may need to revisit their guidance materials; medical and nurse educators may need to expand the curriculum to improve EWS system understanding and use. The paper raises the EWS debate and alerts EWS users that scrutiny is required.

  17. Rapid telemetry and earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, R.; Bose, M.; Brown, H.; Cua, G.; Given, D.; Hauksson, E.; Heaton, T.; Hellweg, M.; Jordan, T.; Kireev, A.; Maechling, P.; Neuhauser, D.; Oppenheimer, D.; Solanki, K.; Zeleznik, M.

    2008-05-01

    The California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN) is currently testing algorithms for earthquake early warning on the realtime seismic systems in the state. An earthquake warning system rapidly detects the initiation of earthquakes and assesses the associated hazard. The goal is to provide warning of potentially damaging ground motion in a target region prior to the arrival of seismic waves. The network-based approach to early warning requires station data to be gathered at a central site for joint processing. ElarmS, one network-based approach being tested, currently runs 15 sec behind realtime in order to gather ~90% of station data before processing. Even with this delay the recent Mw 5.4 Alum Rock earthquake near San Jose was detected and an accurate hazard assessment was available before ground shaking in San Francisco. The Virtual Seismologist (VS) method, another network-based approach, is a Bayesian method that incorporates information such as network topology, previously observed seismicity, and the Gutenberg-Richter relationship in magnitude and location estimation. The VS method is currently being transitioned from off-line to real-time testing and will soon be running 15 sec behind real-time, as in the case of ElarmS. We are also testing an on-site warning approach, which is based on single-station observations. On-site systems can deliver earthquake information faster than regional systems, and the warning could possibly reach potential users at much closer epicentral distances before the damaging shaking starts. By definition, on-site systems do not require a central processing facility or delivery of data from a distant seismic station, but they are less robust that networked-based systems and need a fast and reliable telemetry to deliver warnings to local users. The range of possible warning times is typically seconds to tens of seconds and every second of data latency translates into an equal reduction in the available warning time. Minimal latency

  18. LIVE DEMONSTRATION OF DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Lendholt, M.; Wächter, J.

    2009-12-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of earthquakes, for the monitoring of sea level, ocean floor events, and ground displacements. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems. The introductory part of the demonstration briefly explains the DEWS project, the CCUI in conjunction with operators’ workflow, the system architecture, details of information logistics and the virtual scenario of live demonstration. The live demonstration exhibits the CCUI on screen and the service

  19. Home seismometer for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horiuchi, Shigeki; Horiuchi, Yuko; Yamamoto, Shunroku; Nakamura, Hiromitsu; Wu, Changjiang; Rydelek, Paul A.; Kachi, Masaaki

    2009-02-01

    The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has started the practical service of Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) and a very dense deployment of receiving units is expected in the near future. The receiving/alarm unit of an EEW system is equipped with a CPU and memory and is on-line via the internet. By adding an inexpensive seismometer and A/D converter, this unit is transformed into a real-time seismic observatory, which we are calling a home seismometer. If the home seismometer is incorporated in the standard receiving unit of EEW, then the number of seismic observatories will be drastically increased. Since the background noise inside a house caused by human activity may be very large, we have developed specialized software for on-site warning using the home seismometer. We tested our software and found that our algorithm can correctly distinguish between noise and earthquakes for nearly all the events.

  20. Crowd-Sourced Global Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, S. E.; Brooks, B. A.; Glennie, C. L.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Owen, S. E.; Iannucci, B. A.; Hauser, D. L.

    2014-12-01

    Although earthquake early warning (EEW) has shown great promise for reducing loss of life and property, it has only been implemented in a few regions due, in part, to the prohibitive cost of building the required dense seismic and geodetic networks. However, many cars and consumer smartphones, tablets, laptops, and similar devices contain low-cost versions of the same sensors used for earthquake monitoring. If a workable EEW system could be implemented based on either crowd-sourced observations from consumer devices or very inexpensive networks of instruments built from consumer-quality sensors, EEW coverage could potentially be expanded worldwide. Controlled tests of several accelerometers and global navigation satellite system (GNSS) receivers typically found in consumer devices show that, while they are significantly noisier than scientific-grade instruments, they are still accurate enough to capture displacements from moderate and large magnitude earthquakes. The accuracy of these sensors varies greatly depending on the type of data collected. Raw coarse acquisition (C/A) code GPS data are relatively noisy. These observations have a surface displacement detection threshold approaching ~1 m and would thus only be useful in large Mw 8+ earthquakes. However, incorporating either satellite-based differential corrections or using a Kalman filter to combine the raw GNSS data with low-cost acceleration data (such as from a smartphone) decreases the noise dramatically. These approaches allow detection thresholds as low as 5 cm, potentially enabling accurate warnings for earthquakes as small as Mw 6.5. Simulated performance tests show that, with data contributed from only a very small fraction of the population, a crowd-sourced EEW system would be capable of warning San Francisco and San Jose of a Mw 7 rupture on California's Hayward fault and could have accurately issued both earthquake and tsunami warnings for the 2011 Mw 9 Tohoku-oki, Japan earthquake.

  1. Fixing famine : the politics of information in famine early warning

    OpenAIRE

    Burg, Suzanne M. M.

    2008-01-01

    This dissertation combines ethnographic, interview, and documentary data gathered in Ethiopia to analyze famine early warning systems - large-scale information systems bringing together climate, food production, market, and public health data, which have become a major focus in international famine prevention efforts since the 1970s. Famine early warning is part of a top-down international response that even many early warning experts themselves feel has been unable to solve the problems lead...

  2. Inpatient nursing care and early warning scores: a workflow mismatch.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Anne; Skipper, Chantel; Steury, Rachel; Walsh, Heather; Levin, Amanda

    2014-01-01

    Early warning scores calculated by registered nurses (RNs) are used in hospitals to enhance the recognition of and communication about patient deterioration. This study evaluated workflow variables surrounding calculation and documentation of one pediatric hospital's use of an early warning score. Results indicated that there were significant delays in documentation of early warning scores by RNs and inconsistencies between the early warning scores and vital signs collected and documented by non-RN personnel. These findings reflected information obtained from the RNs about how they prioritize tasks and use work-arounds to specific systems issues regarding assessment and documentation in the electronic medical record.

  3. Famines in Africa: is early warning early enough?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jeeyon Janet Kim

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Following the second Sahelian famine in 1984–1985, major investments were made to establish Early Warning Systems. These systems help to ensure that timely warnings and vulnerability information are available to decision makers to anticipate and avert food crises. In the recent crisis in the Horn of Africa, alarming levels of acute malnutrition were documented from March 2010, and by August 2010, an impending food crisis was forecast. Despite these measures, the situation remained unrecognised, and further deteriorated causing malnutrition levels to grow in severity and scope. By the time the United Nations officially declared famine on 20 July 2011, and the humanitarian community sluggishly went into response mode, levels of malnutrition and mortality exceeded catastrophic levels. At this time, an estimated 11 million people were in desperate and immediate need for food. With warnings of food crises in the Sahel, South Sudan, and forecast of the drought returning to the Horn, there is an immediate need to institutionalize change in the health response during humanitarian emergencies. Early warning systems are only effective if they trigger an early response.

  4. Tipping Points: Early warning and wishful thinking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ditlevsen, Peter

    2010-05-01

    Climate changes and especially the risk of rapid and irreversible changes is of great socioeconomic concern. Abrupt transitions from one statistically steady state to another occur in many complex dynamical systems. Common for these are that crossing a critical threshold can lead to a structural change of the system. This is mathematically described as a bifurcation, which gives the hope that the generic dynamical behavior at bifurcation- or tipping points may be observed even with only imperfect knowledge of the dynamics of the system. It would be especially useful if early warning signals prior to a climate transition could be identified, and perhaps even prevented. The two generic characteristics of the approach to a bifurcation point is increased variance of the observed signal, following from the fluctuation-dissipation theorem and the corresponding increased autocorrelation, related to critical slow down. These two signals are connected, and the detection of only one and not the other, cannot be taken as a sign of an approaching tipping point. This is contrary to what was recently claimed (Dakos et al., PNAS, 105, 14308-14312, 2008; Scheffer et al.,Nature, 461, 53-59, 2009). We shall in the following show this, assess the statistical significance and examine these two signals for the most pronounced observed climate jumps, the Dansgaard-Oeschger events and the termination of the last glacial period. The conclusions drawn is that these most probably are not generated by bifurcations: They are noise induced transitions without early warning signals. This means that it is necessary to understand the full non-linear structure of the climate system, including assessing the influence by an external perturbation (such as increased greenhouse gas concentrations) on the short time scale fluctuations (noise), which might push the system into a different (quasi-)stationary state.

  5. development of an epidemic early warning system in Mpwapwa

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    to develop an early warning system in Mpwapwa district of central Tanzania. Retrospective epidemiological and ... Key words: malaria, epidemics, surveillance, early warning system, Tanzania. Introduction Muheza, Lushoto, Babati, ..... used to provide both alert and action lines. These kinds of charts have been tested and ...

  6. An Integrative Review of Pediatric Early Warning System Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murray, John S; Williams, Lee Ann; Pignataro, Shelly; Volpe, Diana

    2015-01-01

    Increasingly, early warning system scores are being introduced into pediatric clinical practice to support the early recognition of and intervention for clinical deterioration in hospitalized children at risk. This integrative review explored what is known about early warning system scores with pediatric patients. Twenty-eight publications, including research, clinical practice articles, and conference abstracts, were identified. Five major concepts emerged from analysis of retrieved documents: overview of pediatric early warning system scores, supplementary benefits, facilitators to successful implementation, barriers to successful implementation, and needed research. Greater psychometric testing of tools is needed before any recommendations can be made regarding extensive implementation with the pediatric population.

  7. Landslide risk mitigation by means of early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    Among the many options available to mitigate landslide risk, early warning systems may be used where, in specific circumstances, the risk to life increases above tolerable levels. A coherent framework to classify and analyse landslide early warning systems (LEWS) is herein presented. Once the objectives of an early warning strategy are defined depending on the scale of analysis and the type of landslides to address, the process of designing and managing a LEWS should synergically employ technical and social skills. A classification scheme for the main components of LEWSs is proposed for weather-induced landslides. The scheme is based on a clear distinction among: i) the landslide model, i.e. a functional relationship between weather characteristics and landslide events considering the geotechnical, geomorphological and hydro-geological characterization of the area as well as an adequate monitoring strategy; ii) the warning model, i.e. the landslide model plus procedures to define the warning events and to issue the warnings; iii) the warning system, i.e. the warning model plus warning dissemination procedures, communication and education tools, strategies for community involvement and emergency plans. Each component of a LEWS is related to a number of actors involved with their deployment, operational activities and management. For instance, communication and education, community involvement and emergency plans are all significantly influenced by people's risk perception and by operational aspects system managers need to address in cooperation with scientists.

  8. Early warning and crop condition assessment research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boatwright, G. O.; Whitehead, V. S.

    1986-01-01

    The Early Warning Crop Condition Assessment Project of AgRISTARS was a multiagency and multidisciplinary effort. Its mission and objectives were centered around development and testing of remote-sensing techniques that enhance operational methodologies for global crop-condition assessments. The project developed crop stress indicators models that provide data filter and alert capabilities for monitoring global agricultural conditions. The project developed a technique for using NOAA-n satellite advanced very-high-resolution radiometer (AVHRR) data for operational crop-condition assessments. This technology was transferred to the Foreign Agricultural Service of the USDA. The project developed a U.S. Great Plains data base that contains various meteorological parameters and vegetative index numbers (VIN) derived from AVHRR satellite data. It developed cloud screening techniques and scan angle correction models for AVHRR data. It also developed technology for using remotely acquired thermal data for crop water stress indicator modeling. The project provided basic technology including spectral characteristics of soils, water, stressed and nonstressed crop and range vegetation, solar zenith angle, and atmospheric and canopy structure effects.

  9. The Role of Cash Flow in Financial Early Warning of Agricultural Enterprises Based on Logistic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fengru

    2018-01-01

    This paper chooses the agricultural listed companies as the research object, compares the financial situation of the enterprise and the theory of financial early warning, combines the financial status of the agricultural listed companies, selects the relevant cash flow indicators, discusses the application of the Logistic financial early warning model in the agricultural listed companies, Agricultural enterprises get better development. Research on financial early warning of agricultural listed companies will help the agricultural listed companies to predict the financial crisis. Financial early warning model is simple to establish, operational and strong, the use of financial early warning model, to help enterprises in the financial crisis before taking rapid and effective measures, which can avoid losses. Help enterprises to discover signs of deterioration of the financial situation in time to maintain the sustainable development of agricultural enterprises. In addition, through the financial early warning model, investors can correctly identify the financial situation of agricultural enterprises, and can evaluate the financial situation of agricultural enterprises and to help investors to invest in scientific and rational, beneficial to investors to analyze the safety of investment. But also help the relevant regulatory agencies to effectively monitor the market and promote the healthy and stable development of the market.

  10. Obstetric early warning systems to prevent bad outcome.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinn, Audrey Catherine; Meek, Tim; Waldmann, Carl

    2016-06-01

    Early warning scores, early warning systems and rapid response systems, were established in 1999. In the UK, a National Early Warning Score was launched in 2013 and is now used throughout the National Health Service. In 2007, a firm recommendation was made by the maternal confidential death enquiry that maternity units should incorporate a modified early obstetric warning score chart into clinical practice. Although there was enthusiastic uptake of this recommendation, local recording systems vary throughout the country and there is now a need to revisit revise and standardize an obstetric early warning system (ObsEWS). The intercollegiate Maternal Critical Care group of the Obstetric Anaesthetists' Association have produced an ObsEWS in line with the aggregate UK National Early Warning Score. Six physiological parameters are incorporated: respiratory rate, oxygen saturations, temperature, systolic blood pressure, diastolic blood pressure, and pulse rate. However, robust physiological thresholds for the measured parameters are currently lacking but required for a more sensitive and specific ObsEWS. A greater focus and study on the management of maternal morbidity (in addition to mortality data) and the development of better systems within and across the multidisciplinary team to detect early deterioration should improve management of serious illness in obstetrics. It is imperative that we undertake robust ObsEWS and data collection, including electronic systems with research and evidence-based recommendations to underpin this system. This should improve patient safety and result in more efficient, cost-effective management of sicker patients in our complex modern healthcare systems.

  11. Early Warning Signals of Ecological Transitions: Methods for Spatial Patterns

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kefi, S.; Guttal, V.; Brock, W.A.; Carpenter, S.R.; Ellison, A.M.; Livina, V.N.; Seekell, D.A.; Scheffer, M.; Nes, van E.H.; Dakos, V.

    2014-01-01

    A number of ecosystems can exhibit abrupt shifts between alternative stable states. Because of their important ecological and economic consequences, recent research has focused on devising early warning signals for anticipating such abrupt ecological transitions. In particular, theoretical studies

  12. Early warning reporting categories analysis of recall and complaints data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-12-31

    This analysis was performed to assist the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA) in identifying components and systems to be included in early warning reporting (EWR) categories that would be based upon historical safety-related recal...

  13. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Wächter

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT, the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean.

    Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies.

    In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS, a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS have been successfully incorporated.

    In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC, new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP and event-driven architecture (EDA are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  14. Development of tsunami early warning systems and future challenges

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wächter, J.; Babeyko, A.; Fleischer, J.; Häner, R.; Hammitzsch, M.; Kloth, A.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-06-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of information and communications technology (ICT), the evolution of tsunami warning systems (TWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors (e.g. tide gauges and buoys) for the detection of tsunami waves in the ocean. Currently, the beginning implementation of regional tsunami warning infrastructures indicates a new phase in the development of TWS. A new generation of TWS should not only be able to realise multi-sensor monitoring for tsunami detection. Moreover, these systems have to be capable to form a collaborative communication infrastructure of distributed tsunami warning systems in order to implement regional, ocean-wide monitoring and warning strategies. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and in the EU-funded FP6 project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the FP7 project Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), new developments in ICT (e.g. complex event processing (CEP) and event-driven architecture (EDA)) are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems.

  15. Managing Risks? Early Warning Systems for Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sitati, A. M.; Zommers, Z. A.; Habilov, M.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems are a tool with which to minimize risks posed by climate related hazards. Although great strides have been made in developing early warning systems most deal with one hazard, only provide short-term warnings and do not reach the most vulnerable. This presentation will review research results of the United Nations Environment Programme's CLIM-WARN project. The project seeks to identify how governments can better communicate risks by designing multi-hazard early warning systems that deliver actionable warnings across timescales. Household surveys and focus group discussions were conducted in 36 communities in Kenya, Ghana and Burkina Faso in order to identify relevant climate related hazards, current response strategies and early warning needs. Preliminary results show significant variability in both risks and needs within and between countries. For instance, floods are more frequent in rural western parts of Kenya. Droughts are frequent in the north while populations in urban areas face a range of hazards - floods, droughts, disease outbreaks - that sometimes occur simultaneously. The majority of the rural population, especially women, the disabled and the elderly, do not have access to modern media such as radio, television, or internet. While 55% of rural populace never watches television, 64% of urban respondents watch television on a daily basis. Communities have different concepts of how to design warning systems. It will be a challenge for national governments to create systems that accommodate such diversity yet provide standard quality of service to all. There is a need for flexible and forward-looking early warning systems that deliver broader information about risks. Information disseminated through the system could not only include details of hazards, but also long-term adaptation options, general education, and health information, thus increasingly both capabilities and response options.

  16. The Method of Oilfield Development Risk Forecasting and Early Warning Using Revised Bayesian Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yihua Zhong

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Oilfield development aiming at crude oil production is an extremely complex process, which involves many uncertain risk factors affecting oil output. Thus, risk prediction and early warning about oilfield development may insure operating and managing oilfields efficiently to meet the oil production plan of the country and sustainable development of oilfields. However, scholars and practitioners in the all world are seldom concerned with the risk problem of oilfield block development. The early warning index system of blocks development which includes the monitoring index and planning index was refined and formulated on the basis of researching and analyzing the theory of risk forecasting and early warning as well as the oilfield development. Based on the indexes of warning situation predicted by neural network, the method dividing the interval of warning degrees was presented by “3σ” rule; and a new method about forecasting and early warning of risk was proposed by introducing neural network to Bayesian networks. Case study shows that the results obtained in this paper are right and helpful to the management of oilfield development risk.

  17. Earthquake Early Warning with Seismogeodesy: Detection, Location, and Magnitude Estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D.; Bock, Y.; Melgar, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning is critical to reducing injuries and casualties in case of a large magnitude earthquake. The system must rely on near-source data to minimize the time between event onset and issuance of a warning. Early warning systems typically use seismic instruments (seismometers and accelerometers), but these instruments experience difficulty maintaining reliable data in the near-source region and undergo magnitude saturation for large events. Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) instruments capture the long period motions and have been shown to produce robust estimates of the true size of the earthquake source. However, GNSS is often overlooked in this context in part because it is not precise enough to record the first seismic wave arrivals (P-wave detection), an important consideration for issuing an early warning. GNSS instruments are becoming integrated into early warning, but are not yet fully exploited. Our approach involves the combination of direct measurements from collocated GNSS and accelerometer stations to estimate broadband coseismic displacement and velocity waveforms [Bock et al., 2011], a method known as seismogeodesy. We present the prototype seismogeodetic early warning system developed at Scripps and demonstrate that the seismogeodetic dataset can be used for P-wave detection, hypocenter location, and shaking onset determination. We discuss uncertainties in each of these estimates and include discussion of the sensitivity of our estimates as a function of the azimuthal distribution of monitoring stations. The seismogeodetic combination has previously been shown to be immune to magnitude saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. Rapid magnitude estimation is an important product in earthquake early warning, and is the critical metric in current tsunami hazard warnings. Using the seismogeodetic approach, we refine earthquake magnitude scaling using P-wave amplitudes (Pd) and peak ground displacements (PGD) for a

  18. The SAFER-Project and Seismic Early Warning in Europe (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zschau, J.; Gasparini, P.

    2009-12-01

    SAFER (Seismic EArly Warning For EuRope) is the first large scale scientific project in Europe on earthquake early warning. It is funded by the European Commission in the context of Framework Program 6 under the theme Sustainable Development, Global Change and Ecosystems. Its general objective is to develop knowledge and tools for increasing the capability of effective earthquake early warning in Europe and to implement and test these tools in selected European cities. The SAFER project was carried out between 2006 and 2009 by a consortium formed by 20 institutes from 11 European and Mediterranean countries (Germany, Italy, Greece, Romania, Switzerland, Norway, France, the Netherlands, Iceland, Turkey and Egypt) and one each from Japan, Taiwan and USA. Five major earthquake prone cities were chosen as test areas: Athens, Bucharest, Cairo, Istanbul and Naples. The combined population of these cities is about 40 million inhabitants and all have experienced severe earthquakes in recent years. SAFER is strongly multi-disciplinary, calling upon expertise in seismology, structural and geotechnical engineering, informatics and statistics. Some of the specific problems addressed are related to - the rapid determination of earthquake size, complex earthquake features, and damage potential; - the implementation of a fully probabilistic framework for applications of earthquake early warning based on cost-benefit analysis; - the development of a new generation of early warning systems being decentralised and people-centred, and - the implementation of the real-time “shake map”-technology in large European cities. The presentation will review the major scientific findings, comment on the improvements of the earthquake early warning capabilities achieved by SAFER in the five test cities, and present some ideas for the future development of earthquake early warning in Europe.

  19. Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet; Nilles, Eric

    2014-11-01

    On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands' population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities.

  20. Establishing an early warning alert and response network following the Solomon Islands tsunami in 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bilve, Augustine; Nogareda, Francisco; Joshua, Cynthia; Ross, Lester; Betcha, Christopher; Durski, Kara; Fleischl, Juliet

    2014-01-01

    Abstract Problem On 6 February 2013, an 8.0 magnitude earthquake generated a tsunami that struck the Santa Cruz Islands, Solomon Islands, killing 10 people and displacing over 4700. Approach A post-disaster assessment of the risk of epidemic disease transmission recommended the implementation of an early warning alert and response network (EWARN) to rapidly detect, assess and respond to potential outbreaks in the aftermath of the tsunami. Local setting Almost 40% of the Santa Cruz Islands’ population were displaced by the disaster, and living in cramped temporary camps with poor or absent sanitation facilities and insufficient access to clean water. There was no early warning disease surveillance system. Relevant changes By 25 February, an EWARN was operational in five health facilities that served 90% of the displaced population. Eight priority diseases or syndromes were reported weekly; unexpected health events were reported immediately. Between 25 February and 19 May, 1177 target diseases or syndrome cases were reported. Seven alerts were investigated. No sustained transmission or epidemics were identified. Reporting compliance was 85%. The EWARN was then transitioned to the routine four-syndrome early warning disease surveillance system. Lesson learnt It was necessary to conduct a detailed assessment to evaluate the risk and potential impact of serious infectious disease outbreaks, to assess whether and how enhanced early warning disease surveillance should be implemented. Local capacities and available resources should be considered in planning EWARN implementation. An EWARN can be an opportunity to establish or strengthen early warning disease surveillance capabilities. PMID:25378746

  1. European Neolithic societies showed early warning signals of population collapse.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, Sean S; Haas, W Randall; Shennan, Stephen J

    2016-08-30

    Ecosystems on the verge of major reorganization-regime shift-may exhibit declining resilience, which can be detected using a collection of generic statistical tests known as early warning signals (EWSs). This study explores whether EWSs anticipated human population collapse during the European Neolithic. It analyzes recent reconstructions of European Neolithic (8-4 kya) population trends that reveal regime shifts from a period of rapid growth following the introduction of agriculture to a period of instability and collapse. We find statistical support for EWSs in advance of population collapse. Seven of nine regional datasets exhibit increasing autocorrelation and variance leading up to collapse, suggesting that these societies began to recover from perturbation more slowly as resilience declined. We derive EWS statistics from a prehistoric population proxy based on summed archaeological radiocarbon date probability densities. We use simulation to validate our methods and show that sampling biases, atmospheric effects, radiocarbon calibration error, and taphonomic processes are unlikely to explain the observed EWS patterns. The implications of these results for understanding the dynamics of Neolithic ecosystems are discussed, and we present a general framework for analyzing societal regime shifts using EWS at large spatial and temporal scales. We suggest that our findings are consistent with an adaptive cycling model that highlights both the vulnerability and resilience of early European populations. We close by discussing the implications of the detection of EWS in human systems for archaeology and sustainability science.

  2. Impact of social preparedness on flood early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, M.; Di Baldassarre, G.; Seibert, J.

    2017-01-01

    Flood early warning systems play a major role in the disaster risk reduction paradigm as cost-effective methods to mitigate flood disaster damage. The connections and feedbacks between the hydrological and social spheres of early warning systems are increasingly being considered as key aspects for successful flood mitigation. The behavior of the public and first responders during flood situations, determined by their preparedness, is heavily influenced by many behavioral traits such as perceived benefits, risk awareness, or even denial. In this study, we use the recency of flood experiences as a proxy for social preparedness to assess its impact on the efficiency of flood early warning systems through a simple stylized model and implemented this model using a simple mathematical description. The main findings, which are based on synthetic data, point to the importance of social preparedness for flood loss mitigation, especially in circumstances where the technical forecasting and warning capabilities are limited. Furthermore, we found that efforts to promote and preserve social preparedness may help to reduce disaster-induced losses by almost one half. The findings provide important insights into the role of social preparedness that may help guide decision-making in the field of flood early warning systems.

  3. On-site early-warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dino Bindi

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available In this work, the development of an on-site early warning system for Bishkek (Kyrgyzstan is outlined. Several low cost sensors equipped with MEMS accelerometers are installed in eight buildings distributed within the urban area. The different sensing units communicate each other via wireless links and the seismic data are streamed in real-time to the data center using internet. Since each single sensing unit has computing capabilities, software for data processing can be installed to perform decentralized actions. In particular, each sensing unit can perform event detection task and run software for on-site early warning. If a description for the vulnerability of the building is uploaded in the sensing unit, this piece of information can be exploited to introduce the expected probability of damage in the early-warning protocol customized for a specific structure.

  4. EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS FOR FINANCIAL CRISES -A CRITICAL APPROACH

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantin-Marius Apostoaie

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available This research paper aims to analyse some Early Warning Systems (EWS for predicting financial crises. The importance of such a study is undeniable in the context of the current and future mix of policies applied by the monetary authority, in which financial stability and price stability play an important role. The EWS for crises enable the prediction of the occurrence of a crisis within a specified time period. Hence, the theoretical approach of the main early warning systems for crises, the models based on signal extraction and the logit/probit models represent an important stage in preventing and fighting financial crises.

  5. Dynamic Data Driven Operator Error Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-08-13

    AFRL-AFOSR-VA-TR-2015-0291 Dynamic Data Driven Operator Error Early Warning System Alok Chaturvedi PURDUE UNIVERSITY Final Report 08/13/2015...14-04-2015 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Dynamic Data Driven Operator Error Early Warning System 5a.  CONTRACT NUMBER 5b.  GRANT NUMBER FA9550-14-1-0058 5c...cognitive activities), 3 types of sensors were used in the proposed experiment. A B- Alert X10 EEG headset system (Advanced Brain Monitoring, Inc., USA

  6. Republished: paediatric early warning scores: Holy Grail and Achilles' heel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland, Damian

    2013-06-01

    Early Warning Scores (EWS) have become increasingly used by hospitals throughout the world to prevent unexpected admission to intensive care or even death in their inpatient population. It is well known that signs of deterioration are present well before collapse and by a combination of systems, EWS enable healthcare professionals to intervene at an appropriate time. A number of national bodies and regulators in the UK have required the use of Early Warning Scores in locations where children are inpatients. This article attempts to describe the background to their development, identify common problems and provide information for units interested in introducing an EWS into their department.

  7. Paediatric Early Warning Scores: Holy Grail and Achilles' heel.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roland, Damian

    2012-12-01

    Early Warning Scores (EWS) have become increasingly used by hospitals throughout the world to prevent unexpected admission to intensive care or even death in their inpatient population. It is well known that signs of deterioration are present well before collapse and by a combination of systems, EWS enable healthcare professionals to intervene at an appropriate time. A number of national bodies and regulators in the UK have required the use of Early Warning Scores in locations where children are inpatients. This article attempts to describe the background to their development, identify common problems and provide information for units interested in introducing an EWS into their department.

  8. Late lessons from early warnings: science, precaution, innovation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hansen, Steffen Foss

    2013-01-01

    The 2013 Late lessons from early warnings report is the second of its type produced by the European Environment Agency (EEA) in collaboration with a broad range of external authors and peer reviewers. The case studies across both volumes of Late lessons from early warnings cover a diverse range...... of chemical and technological innovations, and highlight a number of systemic problems. The 'Late Lessons Project' illustrates how damaging and costly the misuse or neglect of the precautionary principle can be, using case studies and a synthesis of the lessons to be learned and applied to maximising...

  9. Development of Early Warning Methods for Electric Power Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jóhannsson, Hjörtur

    This thesis concerns the development of methods that can provide, in realtime, an early warning for an emerging blackout in electric power systems. The blackout in E-Denmark and S-Sweden on September 23, 2003 is the main motivation for the method development. The blackout was caused by occurrence...

  10. Interaction network based early-warning indicators of vegetation transitions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tirabassi, Giulio; Viebahn, Jan; Dakos, V.; Dijkstra, Hendrik; Masoller, C.; Rietkerk, Max; Dekker, Stefan

    2014-01-01

    Changes in vegetation patterns in semi-arid regions can precede the abrupt transition to bare soil. Here, complex network techniques are used to develop novel early-warning indicators for these desertification transitions. These indicators are applied to results from a local positive feedback

  11. The Food Early Warning System Project in Somalia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Leblanc, M.

    1992-01-01

    Full Text Available The article describes shortly the objectives of a Food Early Warning System (FEWS project, as well as its organisation. The specifie case of Somalia, where the project had to evolve in increasingly difficult situations, and the solutions used so as to preserve the output, are described.

  12. The comparison of modified early warning score and Glasgow coma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Introduction: The purpose of this study is to assess and compare the discriminatory ability of the Glasgow coma scale (GCS)‑age‑systolic blood pressure (GAP) score and modified early warning scoring system (mEWS) score for 4‑week mortality, for the patients being in the triage category 1 and 2 who refer to Emergency ...

  13. Wetlands as early warning (eco)systems for water resource ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Implications for water resources management are considered, with particular attention paid to determining the Ecological Reserve for wetlands, and the potential role that wetlands could play in providing an early warning of hydrological change in a catchment. Keywords: wetland ecology, delineation, water resources ...

  14. The comparison of modified early warning score and Glasgow coma ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2016-02-08

    Feb 8, 2016 ... Modified early warning score is calculated by measuring pulse, respiratory rate, fever, level of conscious (assessed by alert/verbal/painful/unresponsive [AVPU]), and systolic blood pressure. Grading varies between 0 and 14 [Table 1]. Glasgow coma scale (GCS)‑age‑systolic blood pressure (GAP) score is ...

  15. Public Health Measures: Alerts and Early Warning Systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Marvin, H.J.P.; Kleter, G.A.

    2014-01-01

    This article reviews various reactive and proactive alert and early warning systems that can be used for the identification of emerging risks to food safety, both within the European Union and at the global level. Recent developments include the establishment of a unit dedicated to emerging risks at

  16. Operational real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    R Grapenthin; I A Johanson; R M Allen

    2014-01-01

    .... Recently, a range of high-rate GPS strategies have been demonstrated on off-line data. Here we present the first operational system for real-time GPS-enhanced earthquake early warning as implemented at the Berkeley Seismological Laboratory (BSL...

  17. Current Status on Flood Forecasting and Early Warning in Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiemig, V.; Roo, A.P.J. de

    2011-01-01

    An overview of the current state of flood forecasting and early warning in Africa is provided in order to identify future user needs and research. Information was collected by reviewing previously published research in the scientific literature and from institutional websites. This information was

  18. Agro-meteorological early warning to reduce agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    Agro-meteorological early warning to reduce agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The experiences of PARBCC in Benin. 22 avril 2016. Image. In Benin, extreme climate variability has threatened the food security of rural populations, with agricultural yields declining and crop losses increasing due to extreme weather ...

  19. Agro-meteorological early warning to reduce agricultural ...

    International Development Research Centre (IDRC) Digital Library (Canada)

    2016-04-22

    Agro-meteorological early warning to reduce agricultural vulnerability to climate change: The experiences of PARBCC in Benin. April 22, 2016. Image. In Benin, extreme climate variability has threatened the food security of rural populations, with agricultural yields declining and crop losses increasing due to extreme ...

  20. Value of early warning scores in emergency departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-12-07

    Developed in the belief that early identification and intervention of deteriorating patients would reduce the number of deaths, early warning scores (EWS) have become a routine feature of work in UK emergency departments (EDs) and are becoming increasingly common in paediatric emergency care. They are popular with managers, commissioners and clinicians, yet the authors of this report state that there is little evidence of this reduction in the literature.

  1. Tsunami early warning using earthquake rupture duration (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Michelini, A.; Lomax, A.

    2009-12-01

    Real-time seismological data collected through the International Monitoring System and acquired at the International Data Center can be used for civil applications including rapid earthquake location and magnitude determination, and tsunami early warning. Effective tsunami early warning for coastlines near a tsunamigenic earthquake requires notification within 5-15 minutes. We have shown recently that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T0, allows rapid estimation of moment magnitude, Mw, for large earthquakes, that tsunamigenic earthquakes have T0 greater than about 50 s, and that T0 gives more information on tsunami importance than moment magnitude, Mw. A “duration-exceedance” procedure using seismograms recorded near an earthquake to rapidly determine if T0 is likely to exceed 50 s correctly identifies within about 10 min after the earthquake occurrence most recent earthquakes which produced large or devastating tsunamis. This identification forms a complement to initial estimates of the location, depth and magnitude of an earthquake to improve the reliability of tsunami early warning, and, in some cases, may make possible such warning. The IMS global seismological network appears well suited for rapid determination of all of these earthquake parameters.

  2. Raising awareness of Graves' orbitopathy with early warning cards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mitchell, Anna L; Hickey, Janis; Vaidya, Bijay; Mason, Rhianne; Ajjan, Ramzi; Zammitt, Nicola; Perros, Petros; Dayan, Colin

    2017-12-01

    Clinically significant Graves' orbitopathy (GO) develops in about 25% of those with Graves' disease (GD); most cases of GD in the UK are managed by endocrinologists. Despite this, patients report significant delays before a diagnosis of GO is made. Measures to increase awareness of the early signs of GO and establishing a fast-track referral pathway to specialist care should overcome these delays and potentially improve outcomes. We aimed to determine whether issuing a "GO early warning card" to all GD patients raises awareness of GO and facilitates early diagnosis, what percentage of cards result in a telephone contact, the number of "false reports" from card carriers and patient perceptions of the cards. We designed cards, detailing common GO symptoms and a telephone number for patients developing symptoms. Cards were distributed to 160 GD patients, without known GO, attending four endocrine clinics in the UK (December 2015-March 2016). We recorded telephone contacts over twelve months from when the last card was distributed and gathered patient feedback. The early warning cards were well received by patients in general. Over twelve months, ten telephone contacts from nine patients, all related to ocular symptoms, were received (6% of cards issued). Nine calls resulted in an additional clinic review (for eight patients), and four diagnoses of GO were made. This pilot study demonstrates that it is feasible to distribute GO early warning cards in clinic, and that they can be used to facilitate an early diagnosis of GO. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. A communication model for interlinking national tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, M.; Hammitzsch, M.; Esbri Palomares, M. A.

    2012-04-01

    The integration of national Tsunami Early Earning Systems (TEWS) to ocean-wide networks is a main objective of the UNESCO Intergovernmental Oceanic Commission (IOC) tsunami programme. The intention is to interlink national TEWSs leveraging warning communication during hazards. For this purpose a communication model has been developed enabling an efficient message exchange within a centre-to-centre (C2C) communication in a system-of-systems environment. The model, designed to be robust and simple, is based on existing interoperability standards from the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization of the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). For the exchange of tsunami warning bulletins the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) is used. It supports geospatial referencing by addressing geocoded Points of Interests (POIs), Areas of Interest (AOIs) and Coastal Forecast Zones (CFZs). Moreover it supports hazard classification by standardized criticality parameters and the transmission of attachments, e.g. situation maps. The communication model also supports the exchange of sensor observations and measurements such as sea level data or earthquake parameters. For this purpose markup languages of the Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) suite are used. Both communication products, warning bulletins and sensor observations, are embedded in an envelope providing addressing and routing information using the Emergency Data Exchange Language Distribution Element (EDXL-DE). The communication model has been implemented in a first pilot based on Message Oriented Middleware (MOM). Implementation, test and validation was started in the European research project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) and is continued successively in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision Processes in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC). Stimulated by the concepts and results of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and based on its sensor integration platform

  4. Early warning of atmospheric regime transitions using transfer operators

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tantet, Alexis; Dijkstra, Henk

    2015-04-01

    The existence of persistent midlatitude atmospheric regimes, such as blocking events, with time scales larger than 5-10 days and indications of preferred transition paths between them motivates the development of early-warning indicators of regime transitions. Here, we use a barotropic model of the northern midlatitudes winter flow to study such meta-stable regimes. We look at estimates of transfer operators acting on densities evolving on a reduced phase space spanned by the first Empirical Orthogonal Functions of the streamfunction and develop an early-warning indicator of zonal to blocked flow transition. The study of the spectra of transfer operators estimated for different lags reveals a multi-level structure in the flow as well as the effect of memory on the reduced dynamics due to past interactions between the resolved and unresolved variables. The slowest motions in the reduced phase space are thereby found to have time scales larger than 8 days and to behave as Markovian for larger lags. These motions are associated with meta-stable regimes and their transitions and can be detected as almost-invariant sets of the transfer operator. The early-warning indicator is based on the action on an initial density of products of the transfer operators estimated for sufficiently long lags, making use of the semi-group property of these operators and shows relatively good Peirce skill score. From the energy budget of the model, we are able to explain the meta-stability of the regimes and the existence of preferred transition paths as the manifestation of barotropic instability. Finally, even though the model is highly simplified, the skill of the early warning indicator is promising, suggesting that the transfer operator approach can be used in parallel to an operational deterministic model for stochastic prediction or to assess forecast uncertainty.

  5. Assessing Early Warning Systems; How Have they Worked in Practice?

    OpenAIRE

    Andrew Berg; Eduardo Borensztein; Catherine A Pattillo

    2004-01-01

    Since 1999, IMF staff have been tracking several early warning system (EWS) models of currency crisis. The results have been mixed. One of the long-horizon models has performed well relative to pure guesswork and to available non-model-based forecasts, such as agency ratings and private analysts' currency crisis risk scores. The data do not speak clearly on the other long-horizon EWS model. The two short-horizon private sector models generally performed poorly. Copyright 2005, International M...

  6. Risk management: application of early warning systems to emergency plans

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, C.; Sterlacchini, S.; Pasuto, A.; de Amicis, M.

    2009-04-01

    Warning System and emergency plans are two fundamental elements of risk management and governance, but unfortunately, most of the times, they are developed independently one from the other, as sequential steps not necessary linked. The main goal of this research is to develop a methodology for applying Early Warning Systems - Community Based to the emergency plan using the results of social surveys and quantitative risk assessment, taking into account the administrative structure and the planning system of the study area, as well as the legislative obligations of each entity involved in the risk governance and emergency management. Using a integrative scientific and social approach to natural hazards the research aim to contribute to fill the gap between scientists, policy makers, stakeholders and community. Initially applied in Comunità Montana Valtellina di Tirano, Italy, the methodology involves the application of two comprehensive surveys. The first is addressed to stakeholders (including policy makers, emergency managers, emergency volunteers, consultants and scientists) in order to determine their needs, points of view, concerns and constraints. The second survey is addressed specifically to local community to assess risk perception, awareness, needs, capacity and level of trust towards stakeholders, besides asking for their willingness to participate in future risk communication activities. The Early Warning System developed includes all the stages of the early warning process (hazard evaluation and forecasting; warning and dissemination and public response) and would be based on a multidisciplinary partnership that takes into account the different actors involved in the risk management in order to accomplish a more reliable and credible result, including an emergency plan specifically designed for each study area. After evaluating the results of the surveys, information and education campaigns will be developed with the objective of reducing vulnerability

  7. Climate science and famine early warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Verdin, James; Funk, Chris; Senay, Gabriel; Choularton, Richard

    2005-11-29

    Food security assessment in sub-Saharan Africa requires simultaneous consideration of multiple socio-economic and environmental variables. Early identification of populations at risk enables timely and appropriate action. Since large and widely dispersed populations depend on rainfed agriculture and pastoralism, climate monitoring and forecasting are important inputs to food security analysis. Satellite rainfall estimates (RFE) fill in gaps in station observations, and serve as input to drought index maps and crop water balance models. Gridded rainfall time-series give historical context, and provide a basis for quantitative interpretation of seasonal precipitation forecasts. RFE are also used to characterize flood hazards, in both simple indices and stream flow models. In the future, many African countries are likely to see negative impacts on subsistence agriculture due to the effects of global warming. Increased climate variability is forecast, with more frequent extreme events. Ethiopia requires special attention. Already facing a food security emergency, troubling persistent dryness has been observed in some areas, associated with a positive trend in Indian Ocean sea surface temperatures. Increased African capacity for rainfall observation, forecasting, data management and modelling applications is urgently needed. Managing climate change and increased climate variability require these fundamental technical capacities if creative coping strategies are to be devised.

  8. Financial distress in Brazilian banks: an early warning model,

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Sérgio Rosa

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT This study aims to propose an early warning model for predicting financial distress events in Brazilian banking institutions. Initially, a set of economic-financial indicators is evaluated, suggested by the risk management literature for identifying situations of bank insolvency and exclusively taking public information into account. For this, multivariate logistic regressions are performed, using as independent variables financial indicators involving capital adequacy, asset quality, management quality, earnings, and liquidity. The empirical analysis was based on a sample of 142 financial institutions, including privately and publicly held and state-owned companies, using monthly data from 2006 to 2014, which resulted in panel data with 12,136 observations. In the sample window there were nine cases of Brazilian Central Bank intervention or mergers and acquisitions motivated by financial distress. The results were evaluated based on the estimation of the in-sample parameters, out-of-sample tests, and the early warning model signs for a 12-month forecast horizon. These obtained true positive rates of 81%, 94%, and 89%, respectively. We conclude that typical balance-sheet indicators are relevant for the early warning signs of financial distress in Brazilian banks, which contributes to the literature on financial intermediary credit risk, especially from the perspective of bank supervisory agencies acting towards financial stability.

  9. Current use of early warning scores in UK emergency departments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffiths, James R; Kidney, Elizabeth M

    2012-01-01

    There is recent evidence that the modified early warning scoring systems (MEWS) in the emergency department (ED) can identify patients at risk of deterioration. However, concerns remain that they are not sensitive enough to use as a risk assessment tool. To assess use of MEWS in UK EDs. A postal survey was undertaken of 254 adult EDs within the UK. Questionnaires were sent to the clinical lead at each department about their use of early warning scoring systems. Responses were received from 145 departments giving a response rate of 57%. 87% of respondents are currently using early warning scores (EWS). Of those, 80% are using MEWS. In 71% high EWS results in senior ED review, however in 25% it does not. Less than half of departments use high MEWS to trigger critical care input. 93% of respondents support using EWS in the ED. Despite the lack of strong evidence, the majority of UK EDs are using EWS in some form. MEWS is the most commonly used but departments vary on their use of EWS for senior ED and/or critical care review. Over 90% of respondents in this survey support EWS in the ED.

  10. Early Warning Models for Systemic Banking Crises in Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željka Asanović

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available The purpose of this research is to create an adequate early warning model for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The probability of banking crisis occurrence is calculated using discrete dependent variable models, more precisely, estimating logit regression. Afterwards, seven simple logit regressions that individually have two explanatory variables are estimated. Adequate weights have been assigned to all seven regressions using the technique of Bayesian model averaging. The advantage of this technique is that it takes into account the model uncertainty by considering various combinations of models in order to minimize the author’s subjective judgment when determining reliable early warning indicators. The results of Bayesian model averaging largely coincide with the results of a previously estimated dynamic logit model. Indicators of credit expansion, thanks to their performances, have a dominant role in early warning models for systemic banking crises in Montenegro. The results have also shown that the Montenegrin banking system is significantly exposed to trends on the global level.

  11. Drought early warning and risk management in a changing environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    Drought has long been recognized as falling into the category of incremental but long-term and cumulative environmental changes, also termed slow-onset or creeping events. These event types would include: air and water quality decline, desertification processes, deforestation and forest fragmentation, loss of biodiversity and habitats, and nitrogen overloading, among others. Climate scientists continue to struggle with recognizing the onset of drought and scientists and policy makers continue to debate the basis (i.e., criteria) for declaring an end to a drought. Risk-based management approaches to drought planning at the national and regional levels have been recommended repeatedly over the years but their prototyping, testing and operational implementation have been limited. This presentation will outline two avenues for disaster risk reduction in the context of drought (1) integrated early warning information systems, and (2) linking disaster risk reduction to climate change adaptation strategies. Adaptation involves not only using operational facilities and infrastructure to cope with the immediate problems but also leaving slack or reserve for coping with multiple stress problems that produce extreme impacts and surprise. Increasing the 'anticipatability' of an event, involves both monitoring of key indicators from appropriate baseline data, and observing early warning signs that assumptions in risk management plans are failing and critical transitions are occurring. Illustrative cases will be drawn from the IPCC Special Report on Managing the Risks of Extreme Events and Disasters (2011), the UN Global Assessment of Disaster Risk Reduction (2011) and implementation activities in which the author has been engaged. Most drought early warning systems have tended to focus on the development and use of physical system indicators and forecasts of trends and thresholds. We show that successful early warning systems that meet expectations of risk management also have

  12. New measuring and evaluation procedures for Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muench, U.; Lauterjung, J.; Rudloff, A.; Gitews-Project Team

    2009-04-01

    The Tsunami Early Warning System for the Indian Ocean just recently went into operation in Indonesia. The different sensor stations have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before March 2010, however, the interaction between the different component parts must be improved and optimized, personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. This current system differs from previous Tsunami Warning Systems through the application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, the modelling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System. In particular, the direct incorporation of a broad variety of different sensors provides for information from a number of sources thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used in other regions such as the Mediterranean Sea and/or for different purposes e.g. storm tides. Up to now the German Project Group has been cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to build up equipment primarily for seismological monitoring and data evaluation. Close ties have also been established with Australia, South Africa and India for the real-time exchange mainly of seismological, but also of sea level data.

  13. A Walk through TRIDEC's intermediate Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Reißland, S.; Lendholt, M.

    2012-04-01

    The management of natural crises is an important application field of the technology developed in the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC), co-funded by the European Commission in its Seventh Framework Programme. TRIDEC is based on the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) providing a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination. In TRIDEC new developments in Information and Communication Technology (ICT) are used to extend the existing platform realising a component-based technology framework for building distributed tsunami warning systems for deployment, e.g. in the North-eastern Atlantic, the Mediterranean and Connected Seas (NEAM) region. The TRIDEC system will be implemented in three phases, each with a demonstrator. Successively, the demonstrators are addressing challenges, such as the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources with accelerated generation of large volumes of data. These include sensor systems, geo-information repositories, simulation tools and data fusion tools. In addition to conventional sensors also unconventional sensors and sensor networks play an important role in TRIDEC. The system version presented is based on service-oriented architecture (SOA) concepts and on relevant standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), the World Wide Web Consortium (W3C) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS). In this way the system continuously gathers, processes and displays events and data coming from open sensor platforms to enable operators to quickly decide whether an early warning is necessary and to send personalized warning messages to the authorities and the population at large through a wide range of communication channels. The system

  14. Early warning, warning or alarm systems for natural hazards? A generic classification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sättele, Martina; Bründl, Michael; Straub, Daniel

    2013-04-01

    Early warning, warning and alarm systems have gained popularity in recent years as cost-efficient measures for dangerous natural hazard processes such as floods, storms, rock and snow avalanches, debris flows, rock and ice falls, landslides, flash floods, glacier lake outburst floods, forest fires and even earthquakes. These systems can generate information before an event causes loss of property and life. In this way, they mainly mitigate the overall risk by reducing the presence probability of endangered objects. These systems are typically prototypes tailored to specific project needs. Despite their importance there is no recognised system classification. This contribution classifies warning and alarm systems into three classes: i) threshold systems, ii) expert systems and iii) model-based expert systems. The result is a generic classification, which takes the characteristics of the natural hazard process itself and the related monitoring possibilities into account. The choice of the monitoring parameters directly determines the system's lead time. The classification of 52 active systems moreover revealed typical system characteristics for each system class. i) Threshold systems monitor dynamic process parameters of ongoing events (e.g. water level of a debris flow) and incorporate minor lead times. They have a local geographical coverage and a predefined threshold determines if an alarm is automatically activated to warn endangered objects, authorities and system operators. ii) Expert systems monitor direct changes in the variable disposition (e.g crack opening before a rock avalanche) or trigger events (e.g. heavy rain) at a local scale before the main event starts and thus offer extended lead times. The final alarm decision incorporates human, model and organisational related factors. iii) Model-based expert systems monitor indirect changes in the variable disposition (e.g. snow temperature, height or solar radiation that influence the occurrence probability

  15. The Lake Victoria Intense Storm Early Warning System (VIEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-04-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on NWP, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that also false alarms contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  16. Recommendations to harmonize European early warning dosimetry network systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dombrowski, H.; Bleher, M.; De Cort, M.; Dabrowski, R.; Neumaier, S.; Stöhlker, U.

    2017-12-01

    After the Chernobyl nuclear power plant accident in 1986, followed by the Fukushima Nuclear power plant accident 25 years later, it became obvious that real-time information is required to quickly gain radiological information. As a consequence, the European countries established early warning network systems with the aim to provide an immediate warning in case of a major radiological emergency, to supply reliable information on area dose rates, contamination levels, radioactivity concentrations in air and finally to assess public exposure. This is relevant for governmental decisions on intervention measures in an emergency situation. Since different methods are used by national environmental monitoring systems to measure area dose rate values and activity concentrations, there are significant differences in the results provided by different countries. Because European and neighboring countries report area dose rate data to a central data base operated on behalf of the European Commission, the comparability of the data is crucial for its meaningful interpretation, especially in the case of a nuclear accident with transboundary implications. Only by harmonizing measuring methods and data evaluation, is the comparability of the dose rate data ensured. This publication concentrates on technical requirements and methods with the goal to effectively harmonize area dose rate monitoring data provided by automatic early warning network systems. The requirements and procedures laid down in this publication are based on studies within the MetroERM project, taking into account realistic technical approaches and tested procedures.

  17. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H. M.; Lhermitte, Stef; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-07-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we complement ongoing early warning efforts based on numerical weather prediction, by presenting a new satellite data-driven storm prediction system, the prototype Lake Victoria Intense storm Early Warning System (VIEWS). VIEWS derives predictability from the correlation between afternoon land storm activity and nighttime storm intensity on Lake Victoria, and relies on logistic regression techniques to forecast extreme thunderstorms from satellite observations. Evaluation of the statistical model reveals that predictive power is high and independent of the type of input dataset. We then optimise the configuration and show that false alarms also contain valuable information. Our results suggest that regression-based models that are motivated through process understanding have the potential to reduce the vulnerability of local fishing communities around Lake Victoria. The experimental prediction system is publicly available under the MIT licence at http://github.com/wthiery/VIEWS.

  18. The Earthquake Early Warning System in Japan (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, J. J.; Yamada, M.

    2010-12-01

    In Japan, the earthquake early warning system (Kinkyu Jishin Sokuhou in Japanese) maintained by the Japan Meterological Agency (JMA) has been in operation and sending pubic information since October 1, 2007. Messages have been broadcast on television and radio to warn of strong shaking to the public. The threshold for broadcasting a message is an estimated intensity of JMA 5 lower, which is approximately equivalent to MM VII to VIII. During the period from October 2007 through August 2010, messages have been sent 9 times for earthquakes of magnitude 5.2 to 7.0. There have been a few instances of significantly over-estimating or under-estimating the predicted shaking, but in general the performance of the system has been quite good. The quality of the detection system depends on the dense network of high-quality seismometers that cover the Japanese Islands. Consequently, the system works very well for events on or close to the 4 main islands, but there is more uncertainty for events near the smaller and more distant islands where the density of instrumentation is much less The Early Warning System is also tied to an extensive education program so that the public can react appropriately in the short amount of time given by the warning. There appears to be good public support in Japan, where people have become accustomed to a high level of fast information on a daily basis. There has also been development of a number of specific safety applications in schools and industry that work off the backbone information provided in the national system.

  19. Multi-Use Seismic Stations for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parker, T.; Townsend, B.; Moores, A. O.; Bainbridge, G. S.; Easton, D.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning network performance improves with the number and density of sensing stations, quality of the sites, quality of strong-motion instrumentation, degree of coverage near at-risk populated areas and potential fault zones, and minimizing latency of signal processing and transmission. Seismic research tends to emphasize competing requirements: low-noise sites, high-performance broadband seismic instrumentation, and high-quality signal processing without regard for latency. Recent advances in instrumentation and processing techniques have made feasible the concept of a multi-use seismic station in which strong-motion and weak-motion seismometry are both cost-effectively served without compromising the performance demands of either. We present a concept for a multi-use seismic station that cost-effectively meets the needs of both earthquake early warning and high-quality seismic research. One significant enabler is a 6-channel dual-sensor instrument that combines a 120s broadband seismometer and a class A accelerometer in a single ultra-compact sonde suitable for direct burial. Combining two sensors into one effectively adds broadband capability to a station without increasing the already optimized site footprint, preparation and management costs associated with shallow direct-burial installations. The combined sensors also complement each other, simplifying and speeding installation (for example, the accelerometer provides real-time tilt readings useful to leveling the seismometer). Integration simplifies alignment to North, as there is only one instrument to orient. A dual-use 6-channel digitizer simultaneously provides two sets of independently processed streams from both sensors, one set optimized for low-latency earthquake warning, and the other set for high quality seismic research purposes. Such a dual-use seismic station can serve both seismic research and civil warning infrastructure objectives without adding significantly to the cost of a

  20. [Establishment of malaria early warning system in Jiangsu Province III effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Wei-Ming; Zhou, Hua-Yun; Liu, Yao-Bao; Cao, Yuan-Yuan; Cao, Jun; Gao, Qi

    2014-02-01

    To evaluate the effect of automatic early warning information system on the response of malaria elimination in Jiangsu Province through the operation of the national automatic early warning system of infectious diseases. The malaria early warning information was collected from the automatic early warning information subsystem in the national information system for diseases control and prevention. Malaria early warning signals were analyzed from September 1 to December 31, 2012. The statistical analysis was conducted for the completion rates of case investigation within 3 days before and after the application of malaria early warning information system. Jiangsu Province received 85 mobile phone short messages (SMS) of malaria case from early warning system from September 1 to December 31, 2012. After judgments, 23 cases were deleted including 8 repeated cases and 15 cases that were excluded through the microscopy examination and epidemiological investigation by the confirmation of county CDC. From July to December in 2012, the monthly completion rates of case investigation within 3 days were 55.56%, 78.57%, 90.00%, 100%, 100% and 100%, respectively. The completion rates of case investigation within 3 days in July, August, September and October were significantly different by chi2 test ( chi2 = 10.66, P system. The malaria warning system from the national infectious diseases can effectively improve the response to malaria cases for primary CDC. It also plays an important role for the timely confirmation and diagnosis of malaria cases.

  1. GPS water level measurements for Indonesia's Tsunami Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Schöne

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available On Boxing Day 2004, a severe tsunami was generated by a strong earthquake in Northern Sumatra causing a large number of casualties. At this time, neither an offshore buoy network was in place to measure tsunami waves, nor a system to disseminate tsunami warnings to local governmental entities. Since then, buoys have been developed by Indonesia and Germany, complemented by NOAA's Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART buoys, and have been moored offshore Sumatra and Java. The suite of sensors for offshore tsunami detection in Indonesia has been advanced by adding GPS technology for water level measurements.

    The usage of GPS buoys in tsunami warning systems is a relatively new approach. The concept of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS (Rudloff et al., 2009 combines GPS technology and ocean bottom pressure (OBP measurements. Especially for near-field installations where the seismic noise may deteriorate the OBP data, GPS-derived sea level heights provide additional information.

    The GPS buoy technology is precise enough to detect medium to large tsunamis of amplitudes larger than 10 cm. The analysis presented here suggests that for about 68% of the time, tsunamis larger than 5 cm may be detectable.

  2. Generic tsunami scenarios for disasters and early warning preparedness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillande, Richard; Gardi, Annalisa; Valencia, Nathalia; Salaün, Tugdual

    2010-05-01

    The implementation of the tsunami early warning systems in the NE Atlantic and Mediterranean regions will occur in countries with no preparedness and very little knowledge of potentially affected coastal zones by the various tsunami sources. The final link to coastal communities will be sirens to distribute in the concerned areas. The SCHEMA project aims at elaboration of a generic method to consider various parameters of a particular tsunami scenario. A scenario corresponds to a specific source with a given magnitude or intensity. Since we do not consider only the remote sources with possibilities of warning, local earthquake and submarine landslides are also translated in scenarios to allow the civil protections, municipalities and local stakeholders to assess cases with no real warning possibility, where life will be saved by self evacuation in nearby shelter areas or buildings. The specific temporal dimension of tsunami phenomenon is considered. Oceanic propagation time, expected duration of dangerous waves and wavelength are taken into account with their level of uncertainties. Scenarios are presented by maps and layouts with various information: inundation extension, submersion depth, receding sea limit, currents velocity or modulus of flow, modeled damage level to buildings, affected networks and lifelines. Variable dimensions such as residing or working population, by hour of the day and by season are also considered. Secondary vulnerability factors which may increase damage level to buildings are added (potentially floating objects which may turn into projectiles). The potential evacuation routes and obstacles are represented to support installation of warning networks and definition of shelters as well as evacuation routes. The scenarios are calculated using accurate digital bathymetric and topographic model with less than 10 m ground resolution allowing a very detailed mapping. This accuracy is especially important for scenarios with moderate waves for

  3. Study of Disseminating Landslide Early Warning Information in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, Swee Peng; Lateh, Habibah; Tien Tay, Lea; Ahamd, Jamilah; Chan, Huah Yong; Sakai, Naoki; Jamaludin, Suhaimi

    2015-04-01

    In Malaysia, rain induced landslides are occurring more often than before. The Malaysian Government allocates millions of Malaysian Ringgit for slope monitoring and slope failure remedial measures in the budget every year. In rural areas, local authorities also play a major role in monitoring the slope to prevent casualty by giving information to the residents who are staying near to the slopes. However, there are thousands of slopes which are classified as high risk slopes in Malaysia. Implementing site monitoring system in these slopes to monitor the movement of the soil in the slopes, predicting the occurrence of slopes failure and establishing early warning system are too costly and almost impossible. In our study, we propose Accumulated Rainfall vs. Rainfall Intensity prediction method to predict the slope failure by referring to the predicted rainfall data from radar and the rain volume from rain gauges. The critical line which determines if the slope is in danger, is generated by simulator with well-surveyed the soil property in the slope and compared with historical data. By establishing such predicting system, the slope failure warning information can be obtained and disseminated to the surroundings via SMS, internet and siren. However, establishing the early warning dissemination system is not enough in disaster prevention, educating school children and the community by giving knowledge on landslides, such as landslide's definition, how and why does the slope failure happen and when will it fail, to raise the risk awareness on landslides will reduce landslides casualty, especially in rural area. Moreover, showing video on the risk and symptom of landslides in school will also help the school children gaining the knowledge of landslides. Generating hazard map and landslides historical data provides further information on the occurrence of the slope failure. In future, further study on fine tuning of landslides prediction method, applying IT technology to

  4. Debris flow early warning systems in Norway: organization and tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kleivane, I.; Colleuille, H.; Haugen, L. E.; Alve Glad, P.; Devoli, G.

    2012-04-01

    In Norway, shallow slides and debris flows occur as a combination of high-intensity precipitation, snowmelt, high groundwater level and saturated soil. Many events have occurred in the last decades and are often associated with (or related to) floods events, especially in the Southern of Norway, causing significant damages to roads, railway lines, buildings, and other infrastructures (i.e November 2000; August 2003; September 2005; November 2005; Mai 2008; June and Desember 2011). Since 1989 the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) has had an operational 24 hour flood forecasting system for the entire country. From 2009 NVE is also responsible to assist regions and municipalities in the prevention of disasters posed by landslides and snow avalanches. Besides assisting the municipalities through implementation of digital landslides inventories, susceptibility and hazard mapping, areal planning, preparation of guidelines, realization of mitigation measures and helping during emergencies, NVE is developing a regional scale debris flow warning system that use hydrological models that are already available in the flood warning systems. It is well known that the application of rainfall thresholds is not sufficient to evaluate the hazard for debris flows and shallow slides, and soil moisture conditions play a crucial role in the triggering conditions. The information on simulated soil and groundwater conditions and water supply (rain and snowmelt) based on weather forecast, have proved to be useful variables that indicate the potential occurrence of debris flows and shallow slides. Forecasts of runoff and freezing-thawing are also valuable information. The early warning system is using real-time measurements (Discharge; Groundwater level; Soil water content and soil temperature; Snow water equivalent; Meteorological data) and model simulations (a spatially distributed version of the HBV-model and an adapted version of 1-D soil water and energy balance

  5. Synthetic testing of the Pacific Northwest earthquake early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B. W.; Schmidt, D. A.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.; Gomberg, J. S.; Jamison, D.; Minson, S. E.; Hartog, J. R.; Kress, V. C.; Malone, S. D.; Usher, M.

    2014-12-01

    The Cascadia subduction zone poses one of the greatest risks for a megaquake in the continental United States and, because of this, the Pacific Northwest Seismic Network (PNSN) at the University of Washington is building a joint seismic and geodetic earthquake early warning system. Our two-stage approach to earthquake early warning includes: (1) detection and initial characterization using strong-motion and broadband data from the PNSN with the ElarmS package, and (2) geodetic modeling modules using GPS data from the Pacific Northwest Geodetic Array (PANGA) and combined seismogeodetic (GPS + strong-motion) data. Because of Cascadia's relatively low seismicity rate and the paucity of data from plate boundary earthquakes, we have prioritized the development of a test system and the creation of several large simulated events. The test system permits us to: (1) replay segments of actual seismic waveform data recorded from the PNSN and neighboring networks to represent both earthquakes and noise conditions, and (2) broadcast synthetic data into the system to simulate signals we anticipate from earthquakes for which we have no actual ground motion recordings. The test system lets us also simulate various error conditions (latent and/or out-of-sequence data, telemetry drop-outs, etc.) and to explore how best to mitigate them. Here, we report on the performance of the joint early warning system and the geodetic modeling modules in a simulated real-time mode using simulated 5-Hz displacements from plausible Cascadian earthquake scenarios. The simulations are created using the FK integration method for hypothetical source models for a wide array of possible faulting types and magnitudes. The results show that the geodetic modeling modules are able to properly characterize the simulated events, and we discuss the limitations with respect to latency, network architecture, and earthquake location throughout the Pacific Northwest.

  6. Tsunami Early Warning for the Indian Ocean Region - Status and Outlook

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lauterjung, Joern; Rudloff, Alexander; Muench, Ute; Gitews Project Team

    2010-05-01

    The German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) for the Indian Ocean region has gone into operation in Indonesia in November 2008. The system includes a seismological network, together with GPS stations and a network of GPS buoys additionally equipped with ocean bottom pressure sensors and a tide gauge network. The different sensor systems have, for the most part, been installed and now deliver respective data either online or interactively upon request to the Warning Centre in Jakarta. Before 2011, however, the different components requires further optimization and fine tuning, local personnel needs to be trained and eventual problems in the daily operation have to be dealt with. Furthermore a company will be founded in the near future, which will guarantee a sustainable maintenance and operation of the system. This concludes the transfer from a temporarily project into a permanent service. This system established in Indonesia differs from other Tsunami Warning Systems through its application of modern scientific methods and technologies. New procedures for the fast and reliable determination of strong earthquakes, deformation monitoring by GPS, the modeling of tsunamis and the assessment of the situation have been implemented in the Warning System architecture. In particular, the direct incorporation of different sensors provides broad information already at the early stages of Early Warning thus resulting in a stable system and minimizing breakdowns and false alarms. The warning system is designed in an open and modular structure based on the most recent developments and standards of information technology. Therefore, the system can easily integrate additional sensor components to be used for other multi-hazard purposes e.g. meteorological and hydrological events. Up to now the German project group is cooperating in the Indian Ocean region with Sri Lanka, the Maldives, Iran, Yemen, Tanzania and Kenya to set up the equipment primarily for

  7. Flexible Early Warning Systems with Workflows and Decision Tables

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riedel, F.; Chaves, F.; Zeiner, H.

    2012-04-01

    An essential part of early warning systems and systems for crisis management are decision support systems that facilitate communication and collaboration. Often official policies specify how different organizations collaborate and what information is communicated to whom. For early warning systems it is crucial that information is exchanged dynamically in a timely manner and all participants get exactly the information they need to fulfil their role in the crisis management process. Information technology obviously lends itself to automate parts of the process. We have experienced however that in current operational systems the information logistics processes are hard-coded, even though they are subject to change. In addition, systems are tailored to the policies and requirements of a certain organization and changes can require major software refactoring. We seek to develop a system that can be deployed and adapted to multiple organizations with different dynamic runtime policies. A major requirement for such a system is that changes can be applied locally without affecting larger parts of the system. In addition to the flexibility regarding changes in policies and processes, the system needs to be able to evolve; when new information sources become available, it should be possible to integrate and use these in the decision process. In general, this kind of flexibility comes with a significant increase in complexity. This implies that only IT professionals can maintain a system that can be reconfigured and adapted; end-users are unable to utilise the provided flexibility. In the business world similar problems arise and previous work suggested using business process management systems (BPMS) or workflow management systems (WfMS) to guide and automate early warning processes or crisis management plans. However, the usability and flexibility of current WfMS are limited, because current notations and user interfaces are still not suitable for end-users, and workflows

  8. Developing an Early Warning System for Machu Picchu Pueblo, Peru.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bulmer, Mark; Farquhar, Tony

    2010-05-01

    The town of Machu Picchu, Peru, is linked to Ollantaytambo and Cusco by rail and serves as the main station for the 400,000+ tourists visiting Machu Picchu. Due to the tourist industry the town grown threefold in population in the past two decades. Today, due to the limited availability of low-lying ground, construction is occurring higher up on the unstable valley slopes. The town is located at 2000 m asl while the surrounding peaks rise to over 4000 m asl. Slopes range from 70° in the surrounding granite mountains. The town has grown on the downstream right bank of the Vilcanota River, at the confluence of the Alcamayo and the Aguas Calientes Rivers. Broadly, a dry winter season runs from May to August with a rainy summer season running from October to March. The rainy months provide around 80% of the annual rainfall average, which ranges from 1,600 to 2,300 mm. Seasonal temperature variations are considered modest. An assessment of the geohazards in and around the town has been undertaken. Those of particular concern to the town are 1) large rocks falling onto the town and/or the rail line, 2) flash flooding by any one of its three rivers, and 3) mudflows and landslides. To improve the existing municipal warning system a prototype early warning system incorporating suitable technologies that could monitor weather, river flow and slope satability was installed along the Aguas Calientes River in 2009. This has a distributed modular construction allowing most components to be installed, maintained, swapped, salvaged, repaired and/or replaced by local technicians. A diverse set of candidate power, communication and sensor technologies was deployed and evaluated. Most of the candidate technologies had never been deployed in similar terrain, altitude or weather. The successful deployment of the prototype proved that it is technically feasible to develop early warning capacity in the town.

  9. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System Updates and Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    The ElarmS earthquake early warning algorithm has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to CISN's ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for California. Overall, ElarmS performance has been excellent. Over the past year (July 1, 2014 - July 1, 2015), ElarmS successfully detected all but three of the significant earthquakes (M4+) that occurred within California. Of the 24 events that were detected, the most notable was the M6.0 South Napa earthquake that occurred on August 24, 2014. The first alert for this event was sent in 5.1 seconds with an initial magnitude estimate of M5.7. This alert provided approximately 8 seconds of warning of the impending S-wave arrival to the city of San Francisco. The magnitude estimate increased to the final value of M6.0 within 15 seconds of the initial alert. One of the two events that were not detected by ElarmS occurred within 30 seconds of the M6.0 Napa mainshock. The two other missed events occurred offshore in a region with sparse station coverage in the Eureka area. Since its inception, ElarmS has evolved and adapted to meet new challenges. On May 30, 2015, an extraordinarily deep (678km) M7.8 teleseism in Japan generated 5 false event detections for earthquakes greater than M4 within a minute due to the simultaneous arrival of the P-waves at stations throughout California. In order to improve the speed and accuracy of the ElarmS detections, we are currently exploring new methodologies to quickly evaluate incoming triggers from individual stations. Rapidly determining whether or not a trigger at a given station is due to a local earthquake or some other source (such as a distant teleseism) could dramatically increase the confidence in individual triggers and reduce false alerts.

  10. Technology, conflict early warning systems, public health, and human rights.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pham, Phuong N; Vinck, Patrick

    2012-12-15

    Public health and conflict early warning are evolving rapidly in response to technology changes for the gathering, management, analysis and communication of data. It is expected that these changes will provide an unprecedented ability to monitor, detect, and respond to crises. One of the potentially most profound and lasting expected change affects the roles of the various actors in providing and sharing information and in responding to early warning. Communities and civil society actors have the opportunity to be empowered as a source of information, analysis, and response, while the role of traditional actors shifts toward supporting those communities and building resilience. However, by creating new roles, relationships, and responsibilities, technology changes raise major concerns and ethical challenges for practitioners, pressing the need for practical guidelines and actionable recommendations in line with existing ethical principles. Copyright © 2012 Pham and Vinck. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution Non-Commercial License (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/3.0/), which permits unrestricted non-commercial use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.

  11. Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suweis, Samir; D'Odorico, Paolo

    2014-01-01

    A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance--measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network--is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.

  12. Community participation in tsunami early warning system in Pangandaran town

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hadian, Sapari D.; Khadijah, Ute Lies Siti; Saepudin, Encang; Budiono, Agung; Yuliawati, Ayu Krishna

    2017-07-01

    Disaster-resilient communities are communities capable of anticipating and minimizing destructive forces through adaptation. Disaster is an event very close to the people of Indonesia, especially in the small tourism town of Pangadaran located at West Java, Indonesia. On July 17, 2006, the town was hit by a Mw 7.8 earthquake and tsunami that effected over 300 km of the coastline, where the community suffered losses in which more than 600 people were killed, with run up heights exceeding 20 m. The devastation of the tsunami have made the community more alert and together with the local government and other stakeholder develop an Early Warning System for Tsunami. The study is intended to discover issues on tsunami Early Warning System (EWS), disaster risk reduction measures taken and community participation. The research method used is descriptive and explanatory research. The study describe the Tsunami EWS and community based Disaster Risk Reduction in Pangandaran, the implementation of Tsunami alert/EWS in disaster preparedness and observation of community participation in EWS. Data were gathered by secondary data collection, also primary data through interviews, focus group discussions and field observations. Research resulted in a description of EWS implementation, community participation and recommendation to reduce disaster risk in Pangandaran.

  13. Early warning indicators for challenges in underground coal storage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sipilä, Juha; Auerkari, Pertti; Holmström, Stefan; Vela, Iris

    2014-12-01

    Early warning or leading indicators are discussed for unexpected incidences in case of large-scale underground coal storage at a power plant. The experience is compared with above-ground stockpiles for which established procedures are available but where access for prevention and mitigation are much easier. It is suggested that while the explicit organization, procedures, and the general safety systems aim to provide the targeted levels of performance for the storage, representing new technology without much precedence elsewhere in the world, the extensive experience and tacit knowledge from above-ground open and closed storage systems can help to prepare for and to prevent unwanted incidents in the underground storage. This kind of experience has been also found useful for developing the leading or early warning indicators for underground storage. Examples are given on observed autoignition and freezing of coal in the storage silos, and on occupational hazards. Selection of the leading indicators needs to consider the specific features of the unique underground facility. © 2014 Society for Risk Analysis.

  14. Early warning signs in social-ecological networks.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Suweis

    Full Text Available A number of social-ecological systems exhibit complex behaviour associated with nonlinearities, bifurcations, and interaction with stochastic drivers. These systems are often prone to abrupt and unexpected instabilities and state shifts that emerge as a discontinuous response to gradual changes in environmental drivers. Predicting such behaviours is crucial to the prevention of or preparation for unwanted regime shifts. Recent research in ecology has investigated early warning signs that anticipate the divergence of univariate ecosystem dynamics from a stable attractor. To date, leading indicators of instability in systems with multiple interacting components have remained poorly investigated. This is a major limitation in the understanding of the dynamics of complex social-ecological networks. Here, we develop a theoretical framework to demonstrate that rising variance--measured, for example, by the maximum element of the covariance matrix of the network--is an effective leading indicator of network instability. We show that its reliability and robustness depend more on the sign of the interactions within the network than the network structure or noise intensity. Mutualistic, scale free and small world networks are less stable than their antagonistic or random counterparts but their instability is more reliably predicted by this leading indicator. These results provide new advances in multidimensional early warning analysis and offer a framework to evaluate the resilience of social-ecological networks.

  15. The Construction of Early-warning Index System in Regional Circular Economy of China

    OpenAIRE

    Kang Yanqing; Zhang Rui

    2017-01-01

    In this paper, the model of early warning system for circular economy development system was studied, the early-warning system for circular economy provides a quantitative model to support the pollution control. Specifically, this paper built an early warning index system of regional circular economy, and put forward the measure model for the development of circular economy. In addition, this paper constructed prediction model of the circulation economy development. Finally, by the proposed e...

  16. The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eveslage, Ingmar; Fischer, Joachim; Kühnlenz, Frank; Lichtblau, Björn; Milkereit, Claus; Picozzi, Matteo

    2010-05-01

    The Self-Organising Seismic Early Warning Information Network (SOSEWIN) represents a new approach for Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS), consisting in taking advantage of novel wireless communications technologies without the need of a planned, centralised infrastructure. It also sets out to overcome problems of insufficient node density, which typically affects present existing early warning systems, by having the SOSEWIN seismological sensing units being comprised of low-cost components (generally bought "off-the-shelf"), with each unit initially costing 100's of Euros, in contrast to 1,000's to 10,000's for standard seismological stations. The reduced sensitivity of the new sensing units arising from the use of lower-cost components will be compensated by the network's density, which in the future is expected to number 100's to 1000's over areas served currently by the order of 10's of standard stations. The robustness, independence of infrastructure, spontaneous extensibility due to a self-healing/self-organizing character in the case of removing/failing or adding sensors makes SOSEWIN potentially useful for various use cases, e.g. monitoring of building structures (as we could proof during the L'Aquila earthquake) or technical systems and most recently for seismic microzonation. Nevertheless the main purpose SOSEWIN was initially invented for is the earthquake early warning and rapid response, for which reason the ground motion is continuously monitored by conventional accelerometers (3-component) and processed within a station. Based on this, the network itself decides whether an event is detected cooperatively in a two-level hierarchical alarming protocol. Experiences and experiment results with the SOSEWIN-prototype installation in the Ataköy district of Istanbul (Turkey) are presented. The limited size of this installation with currently 20 nodes allows not answering certain questions regarding the useful or possible size of a SOSEWIN installation

  17. Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    McNally, A.; Verdin, J. P.; Peters-Lidard, C. D.; Arsenault, K. R.; Wang, S.; Kumar, S.; Shukla, S.; Funk, C. C.; Pervez, M. S.; Fall, G. M.; Karsten, L. R.

    2015-12-01

    AGU 2015 Fall Meeting Session ID#: 7598 Remote Sensing Applications for Water Resources Management Land Surface Modeling Applications for Famine Early Warning James Verdin, USGS EROS Christa Peters-Lidard, NASA GSFC Amy McNally, NASA GSFC, UMD/ESSIC Kristi Arsenault, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shugong Wang, NASA GSFC, SAIC Sujay Kumar, NASA GSFC, SAIC Shrad Shukla, UCSB Chris Funk, USGS EROS Greg Fall, NOAA Logan Karsten, NOAA, UCAR Famine early warning has traditionally required close monitoring of agro-climatological conditions, putting them in historical context, and projecting them forward to anticipate end-of-season outcomes. In recent years, it has become necessary to factor in the effects of a changing climate as well. There has also been a growing appreciation of the linkage between food security and water availability. In 2009, Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) science partners began developing land surface modeling (LSM) applications to address these needs. With support from the NASA Applied Sciences Program, an instance of the Land Information System (LIS) was developed to specifically support FEWS NET. A simple crop water balance model (GeoWRSI) traditionally used by FEWS NET took its place alongside the Noah land surface model and the latest version of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model, and LIS data readers were developed for FEWS NET precipitation forcings (NOAA's RFE and USGS/UCSB's CHIRPS). The resulting system was successfully used to monitor and project soil moisture conditions in the Horn of Africa, foretelling poor crop outcomes in the OND 2013 and MAM 2014 seasons. In parallel, NOAA created another instance of LIS to monitor snow water resources in Afghanistan, which are an early indicator of water availability for irrigation and crop production. These successes have been followed by investment in LSM implementations to track and project water availability in Sub-Saharan Africa and Yemen, work that is now underway. Adoption of

  18. Multi-parameter algorithm for Earthquake Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rakhi Bhardwaj

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Earthquake Early Warning (EEW system is a real-time earthquake damage mitigation system. It detects, analyzes and transmits information of the impending event at the potential user sites. In the present study, an attempt has been made to develop a multi-parameter-based EEW algorithm for accurate and reliable issuance of EEW. In the present study, not only the individual parameters such as maximum predominant period (, average period (τc, peak displacement (Pd, cumulative absolute velocity and root sum of squares cumulative velocity have been used to develop an algorithm but also various combinations have been attempted to issue alarm. The criterion for issuing warning is based on the alarm status of combinations of parameters at nearest four stations within selected epicentral distance of the event. It has been concluded that three parameter preference-based approach provides most efficient results at a time window of 4 s. The data-set for estimating various parameters required for multi-parameter algorithm has been taken from K-NET seismic array (Japan. The algorithm has been validated on the data taken from different regions. Based on the validation carried out using Indian and PEER-NGA database, the results revealed better performance of multi-parametric EEW algorithm.

  19. Early warning of changing drinking water quality by trend analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomperi, Jani; Juuso, Esko; Leiviskä, Kauko

    2016-06-01

    Monitoring and control of water treatment plants play an essential role in ensuring high quality drinking water and avoiding health-related problems or economic losses. The most common quality variables, which can be used also for assessing the efficiency of the water treatment process, are turbidity and residual levels of coagulation and disinfection chemicals. In the present study, the trend indices are developed from scaled measurements to detect warning signs of changes in the quality variables of drinking water and some operating condition variables that strongly affect water quality. The scaling is based on monotonically increasing nonlinear functions, which are generated with generalized norms and moments. Triangular episodes are classified with the trend index and its derivative. Deviation indices are used to assess the severity of situations. The study shows the potential of the described trend analysis as a predictive monitoring tool, as it provides an advantage over the traditional manual inspection of variables by detecting changes in water quality and giving early warnings.

  20. On the importance of risk knowledge for an end-to-end tsunami early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Post, Joachim; Strunz, Günter; Riedlinger, Torsten; Mück, Matthias; Wegscheider, Stephanie; Zosseder, Kai; Steinmetz, Tilmann; Gebert, Niklas; Anwar, Herryal

    2010-05-01

    Warning systems commonly use information provided by networks of sensors able to monitor and detect impending disasters, aggregate and condense these information to provide reliable information to a decision maker whether to warn or not, disseminates the warning message and provide this information to people at risk. Ultimate aim is to enable those in danger to make decisions (e.g. initiate protective actions for buildings) and to take action to safe their lives. This involves very complex issues when considering all four elements of early warning systems (UNISDR-PPEW), namely (1) risk knowledge, (2) monitoring and warning service, (3) dissemination and communication, (4) response capability with the ultimate aim to gain as much time as possible to empower individuals and communities to act in an appropriate manner to reduce injury, loss of life, damage to property and the environment and loss of livelihoods. Commonly most warning systems feature strengths and main attention on the technical/structural dimension (monitoring & warning service, dissemination tools) with weaknesses and less attention on social/cultural dimension (e.g. human response capabilities, defined warning chain to and knowing what to do by the people). Also, the use of risk knowledge in early warning most often is treated in a theoretical manner (knowing that it is somehow important), yet less in an operational, practical sense. Risk assessments and risk maps help to motivate people, prioritise early warning system needs and guide preparations for response and disaster prevention activities. Beyond this risk knowledge can be seen as a tie between national level early warning and community level reaction schemes. This presentation focuses on results, key findings and lessons-learnt related to tsunami risk assessment in the context of early warning within the GITEWS (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning) project. Here a novel methodology reflecting risk information needs in the early warning

  1. Multicriteria Early Warning System of Enterprises against the Bankruptcy Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Korol

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available This article is devoted to the issue of forecasting the bankruptcy risk of the enterprises. In the article author compares the effectiveness of multicriteria early warning system with the traditional discriminant analysis model of forecasting the risks of bankruptcy of companies. In the conducted research author has used data on 185 companies listed on the Warsaw Stock Exchange Market. This population of firms was divided into learning and testing setdata. Each company has been analyzed using the absolute values of 14 financial ratios and the dynamics of change of these ratios. Additionally, author has used the macroeconomic variables in developed multicriteria system. The author’s developed models are characterized by high efficiency. These studies are the first attempt to use fuzzy logic to predict the bankruptcy of companies in Poland and one of the first in the world. Obtained results demonstrate the great potential of this method.  

  2. Early-warning indicators for rate-induced tipping.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ritchie, Paul; Sieber, Jan

    2016-09-01

    A dynamical system is said to undergo rate-induced tipping when it fails to track its quasi-equilibrium state due to an above-critical-rate change of system parameters. We study a prototypical model for rate-induced tipping, the saddle-node normal form subject to time-varying equilibrium drift and noise. We find that both most commonly used early-warning indicators, increase in variance and increase in autocorrelation, occur not when the equilibrium drift is fastest but with a delay. We explain this delay by demonstrating that the most likely trajectory for tipping also crosses the tipping threshold with a delay, and therefore, the tipping itself is delayed. We find solutions of the variational problem determining the most likely tipping path using numerical continuation techniques. The result is a systematic study of the most likely tipping time in the plane of two parameters, distance from tipping threshold and noise intensity.

  3. Early-warning signals of topological collapse in interbank networks

    CERN Document Server

    Squartini, Tiziano; Garlaschelli, Diego

    2013-01-01

    The financial crisis marked a paradigm shift, from traditional studies of individual risk to recent research on the "systemic risk" generated by whole networks of institutions. However, the reverse effects of realized defaults on network topology are poorly understood. Here we analyze the Dutch interbank network over the period 1998-2008, ending with the global crisis. We find that many topological properties, after controlling for overall density effects, display an abrupt change in 2008, thus providing a clear but unpredictable signature of the crisis. By contrast, if the intrinsic heterogeneity of banks is controlled for, the same properties undergo a slow and continuous transition, gradually connecting the crisis period to a much earlier stationary phase. This early-warning signal begins in 2005, and is preceded by an even earlier period of "risk autocatalysis" characterized by anomalous debt loops. These remarkable precursors are undetectable if the network is reconstructed from partial bank-specific inf...

  4. Early Warning of El Nino Impacts on Food Security

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rowland, J.; Verdin, J. P.; Hillbruner, C.; Budde, M. E.

    2016-12-01

    Before and during the El Niño of 2015-2016, regular and frequent application of climate monitoring and seasonal forecasts enabled early warning of food insecurity in Africa, Central America, and the Caribbean. As it happened, drought associated with the quasi-El Niño of 2014 had already adversely impacted harvests in Central America, Haiti, and Southern Africa, so the effects of the El Niño of 2015-2016 were especially hard-hitting and particularly devastating to crop conditions and food security. In the case of Ethiopia, 2014 conditions were normal but there were record rainfall deficits in 2015, with consequent crop failure, inadequate forage, and sharply curtailed water availability. Combining such agro-climatological information with knowledge of household economies, livelihood systems, markets & trade, and health & nutrition, FEWS NET constructed scenarios of food insecurity eight months into the future, with monthly updates. These scenarios informed assistance programming by USAID and partners. Overall, FEWS NET estimates that at least 18 million people will be severely food insecure during 2015/16 as a direct result of the impact of El Nino on rainfall. However, in Ethiopia, the contrast with the 1982-1983 El Niño is dramatic; though the two events were climatically similar, the human impacts of the 2015-2016 El Niño are much less, thanks not only to well-functioning early warning systems and large scale emergency response, but also improved social safety nets and lack of ongoing armed conflict. In southern Africa, El Nino resulted in extensive failed crops, with some areas of South Africa and Zimbabwe having insufficient rain to plant crops. Remote sensing products provided relevant information to depict the severity of rainfall and vegetation deficits. Likewise, in Central America and the Caribbean (Hispaniola), rainfall deficits were portrayed in the perspective of 30+ years of data.

  5. Malaria stratification, climate, and epidemic early warning in Eritrea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ceccato, Pietro; Ghebremeskel, Tewolde; Jaiteh, Malanding; Graves, Patricia M; Levy, Marc; Ghebreselassie, Shashu; Ogbamariam, Andom; Barnston, Anthony G; Bell, Michael; del Corral, John; Connor, Stephen J; Fesseha, Issac; Brantly, Eugene P; Thomson, Madeleine C

    2007-12-01

    Eritrea has a successful malaria control program, but it is still susceptible to devastating malaria epidemics. Monthly data on clinical malaria cases from 242 health facilities in 58 subzobas (districts) of Eritrea from 1996 to 2003 were used in a novel stratification process using principal component analysis and nonhierarchical clustering to define five areas with distinct malaria intensity and seasonality patterns, to guide future interventions and development of an epidemic early warning system. Relationships between monthly clinical malaria incidence by subzoba and monthly climate data from several sources, and with seasonal climate forecasts, were investigated. Remotely sensed climate data were averaged over the same subzoba geographic administrative units as the malaria cases. Although correlation was good between malaria anomalies and actual rainfall from ground stations (lagged by 2 months), the stations did not have sufficiently even coverage to be widely useful. Satellite derived rainfall from the Climate Prediction Center Merged Analysis of Precipitation was correlated with malaria incidence anomalies, with a lead time of 2-3 months. NDVI anomalies were highly correlated with malaria incidence anomalies, particularly in the semi-arid north of the country and along the northern Red Sea coast, which is a highly epidemic-prone area. Eritrea has 2 distinct rainy seasons in different parts of the country. The seasonal forecasting skill from Global Circulation Models for the June/July/August season was low except for the Eastern border. For the coastal October/November/December season, forecasting skill was good only during the 1997-1998 El Niño event. For epidemic control, shorter-range warning based on remotely sensed rainfall estimates and an enhanced epidemic early-detection system based on data derived for this study are needed.

  6. Assessing the Applicability of Earthquake Early Warning in Nicaragua.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massin, F.; Clinton, J. F.; Behr, Y.; Strauch, W.; Cauzzi, C.; Boese, M.; Talavera, E.; Tenorio, V.; Ramirez, J.

    2016-12-01

    Nicaragua, like much of Central America, suffers from frequent damaging earthquakes (6 M7+ earthquakes occurred in the last 100 years). Thrust events occur at the Middle America Trench where the Cocos plate subducts by 72-81 mm/yr eastward beneath the Caribbean plate. Shallow crustal events occur on-shore, with potential extensive damage as demonstrated in 1972 by a M6.2 earthquake, 5 km beneath Managua. This seismotectonic setting is challenging for Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) because the target events derive from both the offshore seismicity, with potentially large lead times but uncertain locations, and shallow seismicity in close proximity to densely urbanized areas, where an early warning would be short if available at all. Nevertheless, EEW could reduce Nicaragua's earthquake exposure. The Swiss Development and Cooperation Fund and the Nicaraguan Government have funded a collaboration between the Swiss Seismological Service (SED) at ETH Zurich and the Nicaraguan Geosciences Institute (INETER) in Managua to investigate and build a prototype EEW system for Nicaragua and the wider region. In this contribution, we present the potential of EEW to effectively alert Nicaragua and the neighbouring regions. We model alert time delays using all available seismic stations (existing and planned) in the region, as well as communication and processing delays (observed and optimal) to estimate current and potential performances of EEW alerts. Theoretical results are verified with the output from the Virtual Seismologist in SeisComP3 (VS(SC3)). VS(SC3) is implemented in the INETER SeisComP3 system for real-time operation and as an offline instance, that simulates real-time operation, to record processing delays of playback events. We compare our results with similar studies for Europe, California and New Zealand. We further highlight current capabilities and challenges for providing EEW alerts in Nicaragua. We also discuss how combining different algorithms, like e.g. VS

  7. Early warning signals of desertification transitions in semiarid ecosystems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corrado, Raffaele; Cherubini, Anna Maria; Pennetta, Cecilia

    2014-12-01

    The identification of early warning signals for regime shifts in ecosystems is of crucial importance given their impact in terms of economic and social effects. We present here the results of a theoretical study on the desertification transition in semiarid ecosystems under external stress. We performed numerical simulations based on a stochastic cellular automaton model, and we studied the dynamics of the vegetation clusters in terms of percolation theory, assumed as an effective tool for analyzing the geometrical properties of the clusters. Focusing on the role played by the strength of external stresses, measured by the mortality rate m, we followed the progressive degradation of the ecosystem for increasing m, identifying different stages: first, the fragmentation transition occurring at relatively low values of m, then the desertification transition at higher mortality rates, and finally the full desertification transition corresponding to the extinction of the vegetation and the almost complete degradation of the soil, attained at the maximum value of m. For each transition we calculated the spanning probabilities as functions of m and the percolation thresholds according to different spanning criteria. The identification of the different thresholds is proposed as an useful tool for monitoring the increasing degradation of real-world finite-size systems. Moreover, we studied the time fluctuations of the sizes of the biggest clusters of vegetated and nonvegetated cells over the entire range of mortality values. The change of sign in the skewness of the size distributions, occurring at the fragmentation threshold for the biggest vegetation cluster and at the desertification threshold for the nonvegetated cluster, offers new early warning signals for desertification. Other new and robust indicators are given by the maxima of the root-mean-square deviation of the distributions, which are attained respectively inside the fragmentation interval, for the vegetated

  8. Acquiring Comprehensive Observations using an Integrated Sensorweb for Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Shahid; Ambrose, Steve

    2006-01-01

    As an integrated observing strategy, the concept of sensorweb for Earth observations is appealing in many aspects. For instance, by increasing the spatial and temporal coverage of observations from space and other vantage points, one can eventually aid in increasing the accuracy of the atmospheric models which are precursor to hurricane track prediction, volcanic eruption forecast, and trajectory path of transcontinental transport of dust, harmful nuclear and chemical plumes. In reality, there is little analysis'available in terms of benefits, costs and optimized set of sensors needed to make these necessary observations. This is a complex problem that must be carefully studied and balanced over many boundaries such as science, defense, early warning security, and surveillance. Simplistically, the sensorweb concept from the technological point of view alone has a great appeal in the defense, early warning and security applications. In fact, it can be relatively less expensive in per unit cost as opposed to building and deploying it for the scientific use. However, overall observing approach should not be singled out and aligned somewhat . orthogonally to serve a particular need. On the other hand, the sensorweb should be designed and deployed to serve multiple subject areas and customers simultaneously; and can behave as directed measuring systems for both science and operational entities. Sensorweb can be designed to act as expert systems, and/or also provide a dedicated integrated surveillance network. Today, there is no system in the world that is fully integrated in terms of reporting timely multiple hazards warnings, computing the lass of life and property damage estimates, and is also designed to cater to everyone's needs. It is not an easier problem to undertake and more so is not practically solvable. At this time due to some recent events in the world, the scientific community, social scientists, and operational agencies are more cognizant and getting

  9. Enhanced early warning system impact on nursing practice: A phenomenological study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burns, Kathleen A; Reber, Tracey; Theodore, Karen; Welch, Brenda; Roy, Debra; Siedlecki, Sandra L

    2017-12-29

    To determine how an enhanced early warning system has an impact on nursing practice. Early warning systems score physiologic measures and alert nurses to subtle changes in patient condition. Critics of early warning systems have expressed concern that nurses would rely on a score rather than assessment skills and critical thinking to determine the need for intervention. Enhancing early warning systems with innovative technology is still in its infancy, so the impact of an enhanced early warning system on nursing behaviours or practice has not yet been studied. Phenomenological design. Scripted, semistructured interviews were conducted in September 2015 with 25 medical/surgical nurses who used the enhanced early warning system. Data were analysed using thematic analysis techniques (coding and bracketing). Emerging themes were examined for relationships and a model describing the enhanced early warning system experience was developed. Nurses identified awareness leading to investigation and ease of prioritization as the enhanced early warning system's most important impact on their nursing practice. There was also an impact on organizational culture, with nurses reporting improved communication, increased collaboration, increased accountability and proactive responses to early changes in patient condition. Rather than hinder critical thinking, as many early warning systems' critics claim, nurses in this study found that the enhanced early warning system increased their awareness of changes in a patient's condition, resulting in earlier response and reassessment times. It also had an impact on the organization by improving communication and collaboration and supporting a culture of proactive rather than reactive response to early signs of deterioration. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Early warning system for Douglas-fir tussock moth outbreaks in the Western United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gary E. Daterman; John M. Wenz; Katharine A. Sheehan

    2004-01-01

    The Early Warning System is a pheromone-based trapping system used to detect outbreaks of Douglas-fir tussock moth (DFTM, Orgyia pseudotsugata) in the western United States. Millions of acres are susceptible to DFTM defoliation, but Early Warning System monitoring focuses attention only on the relatively limited areas where outbreaks may be...

  11. Early warning score predicts acute mortality in stroke patients

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Liljehult, J; Christensen, Thomas

    2016-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study wa...... tool for identifying patients at risk of dying after acute stroke. Readily available physiological parameters are converted to a single score, which can guide both nurses and physicians in clinical decision making and resource allocation.......OBJECTIVES: Clinical deterioration and death among patients with acute stroke are often preceded by detrimental changes in physiological parameters. Systematic and effective tools to identify patients at risk of deterioration early enough to intervene are therefore needed. The aim of the study...... was to investigate whether the aggregate weighted track and trigger system early warning score (EWS) can be used as a simple observational tool to identify patients at risk and predict mortality in a population of patients with acute stroke. MATERIALS AND METHODS: Patients admitted with acute stroke...

  12. Panel 2.2: surveillance, early warning alert, and response: communicable and vector-borne diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roure, Collette; Khalakdina, Asheena; Ungchusak, Kumnuan; Yulizar, Media; Ravindran, P; Watson, John; Pinto, Augusto

    2005-01-01

    This is a summary of the presentations and discussion of Surveillance, Early Warning Alert and Response at the Conference, Health Aspects of the Tsunami Disaster in Asia, convened by the World Health Organization (WHO) in Phuket, Thailand, 04-06 May 2005. The topics discussed included issues related to the surveillance, early warning alert, and response to communicable and vector-borne diseases as pertaining to the responses to the damage created by the Tsunami. It is presented in the following major sections: (1) key questions; (2) needs assessment; (3) coordination; (4) gap filling; and (5) capacity building. The key questions section is presented in six sub-sections: (1) communicable diseases; (2) early warning; (3) laboratory capacity and referral networking; (4) coordination of disease surveillance, early warning, and response; (5) health infrastructure rebuilding; and (6) using existing national surveillance plans to enhance disease surveillance and early warning systems.

  13. Exploring the Role of Social Memory of Floods for Designing Flood Early Warning Operations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Girons Lopez, Marc; Di Baldassarre, Giuliano; Grabs, Thomas; Halldin, Sven; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Early warning systems are an important tool for natural disaster mitigation practices, especially for flooding events. Warnings rely on near-future forecasts to provide time to take preventive actions before a flood occurs, thus reducing potential losses. However, on top of the technical capacities, successful warnings require an efficient coordination and communication among a range of different actors and stakeholders. The complexity of integrating the technical and social spheres of warning systems has, however, resulted in system designs neglecting a number of important aspects such as social awareness of floods thus leading to suboptimal results. A better understanding of the interactions and feedbacks among the different elements of early warning systems is therefore needed to improve their efficiency and therefore social resilience. When designing an early warning system two important decisions need to be made regarding (i) the hazard magnitude at and from which a warning should be issued and (ii) the degree of confidence required for issuing a warning. The first decision is usually taken based on the social vulnerability and climatic variability while the second one is related to the performance (i.e. accuracy) of the forecasting tools. Consequently, by estimating the vulnerability and the accuracy of the forecasts, these two variables can be optimized to minimize the costs and losses. Important parameters with a strong influence on the efficiency of warning systems such as social awareness are however not considered in their design. In this study we present a theoretical exploration of the impact of social awareness on the design of early warning systems. For this purpose we use a definition of social memory of flood events as a proxy for flood risk awareness and test its effect on the optimization of the warning system design variables. Understanding the impact of social awareness on warning system design is important to make more robust warnings that can

  14. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System) for Sicily

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brigandì, Giuseppina; Tito Aronica, Giuseppe; Bonaccorso, Brunella; Gueli, Roberto; Basile, Giuseppe

    2017-09-01

    The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System), specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF). The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA) model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall-streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall-runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall-runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015) have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002-2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall threshold models to produce

  15. Decision-tree early warning score (DTEWS) validates the design of the National Early Warning Score (NEWS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Badriyah, Tessy; Briggs, James S; Meredith, Paul; Jarvis, Stuart W; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2014-03-01

    To compare the performance of a human-generated, trial and error-optimised early warning score (EWS), i.e., National Early Warning Score (NEWS), with one generated entirely algorithmically using Decision Tree (DT) analysis. We used DT analysis to construct a decision-tree EWS (DTEWS) from a database of 198,755 vital signs observation sets collected from 35,585 consecutive, completed acute medical admissions. We evaluated the ability of DTEWS to discriminate patients at risk of cardiac arrest, unanticipated intensive care unit admission or death, each within 24h of a given vital signs observation. We compared the performance of DTEWS and NEWS using the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (AUROC) curve. The structures of DTEWS and NEWS were very similar. The AUROC (95% CI) for DTEWS for cardiac arrest, unanticipated ICU admission, death, and any of the outcomes, all within 24h, were 0.708 (0.669-0.747), 0.862 (0.852-0.872), 0.899 (0.892-0.907), and 0.877 (0.870-0.883), respectively. Values for NEWS were 0.722 (0.685-0.759) [cardiac arrest], 0.857 (0.847-0.868) [unanticipated ICU admission}, 0.894 (0.887-0.902) [death], and 0.873 (0.866-0.879) [any outcome]. The decision-tree technique independently validates the composition and weightings of NEWS. The DT approach quickly provided an almost identical EWS to NEWS, although one that admittedly would benefit from fine-tuning using clinical knowledge. We believe that DT analysis could be used to quickly develop candidate models for disease-specific EWSs, which may be required in future. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. A proposed Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) with emphasis on early detection of sepsis in the elderly.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anderson, Ian

    2016-03-01

    There are several secondary care early warning scores which alert for severe illness including sepsis. None are specifically adjusted for primary care. A Primary Health Early Warning Score (PHEWS) is proposed which incorporates practical parameters from both secondary and primary care.

  17. Integration of WERA Ocean Radar into Tsunami Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dzvonkovskaya, Anna; Helzel, Thomas; Kniephoff, Matthias; Petersen, Leif; Weber, Bernd

    2016-04-01

    High-frequency (HF) ocean radars give a unique capability to deliver simultaneous wide area measurements of ocean surface current fields and sea state parameters far beyond the horizon. The WERA® ocean radar system is a shore-based remote sensing system to monitor ocean surface in near real-time and at all-weather conditions up to 300 km offshore. Tsunami induced surface currents cause increasing orbital velocities comparing to normal oceanographic situation and affect the measured radar spectra. The theoretical approach about tsunami influence on radar spectra showed that a tsunami wave train generates a specific unusual pattern in the HF radar spectra. While the tsunami wave is approaching the beach, the surface current pattern changes slightly in deep water and significantly in the shelf area as it was shown in theoretical considerations and later proved during the 2011 Japan tsunami. These observed tsunami signatures showed that the velocity of tsunami currents depended on a tsunami wave height and bathymetry. The HF ocean radar doesn't measure the approaching wave height of a tsunami; however, it can resolve the surface current velocity signature, which is generated when tsunami reaches the shelf edge. This strong change of the surface current can be detected by a phased-array WERA system in real-time; thus the WERA ocean radar is a valuable tool to support Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). Based on real tsunami measurements, requirements for the integration of ocean radar systems into TEWS are already defined. The requirements include a high range resolution, a narrow beam directivity of phased-array antennas and an accelerated data update mode to provide a possibility of offshore tsunami detection in real-time. The developed software package allows reconstructing an ocean surface current map of the area observed by HF radar based on the radar power spectrum processing. This fact gives an opportunity to issue an automated tsunami identification message

  18. Prototype early warning systems for vector-borne diseases in Europe.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Semenza, Jan C

    2015-06-02

    Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2) Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3) Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

  19. Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan C. Semenza

    2015-06-01

    Full Text Available Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3 Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1 The environmental suitability of malaria transmission in Greece was mapped in order to target epidemiological and entomological surveillance and vector control activities. Malaria transmission in these areas was interrupted in 2013 through such integrated preparedness and response activities. (2 Since 2010, recurrent West Nile fever outbreaks have ensued in South/eastern Europe. Temperature deviations from a thirty year average proved to be associated with the 2010 outbreak. Drivers of subsequent outbreaks were computed through multivariate logistic regression models and included monthly temperature anomalies for July and a normalized water index. (3 Dengue is a tropical disease but sustained transmission has recently emerged in Madeira. Autochthonous transmission has also occurred repeatedly in France and in Croatia mainly due to travel importation. The risk of dengue importation into Europe in 2010 was computed with the volume of international travelers from dengue affected areas worldwide.These prototype early warning systems indicate that monitoring drivers of infectious diseases can help predict vector-borne disease threats.

  20. Experiences from site-specific landslide early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Michoud

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available Landslide early warning systems (EWSs have to be implemented in areas with large risk for populations or infrastructures when classical structural remediation measures cannot be set up. This paper aims to gather experiences of existing landslide EWSs, with a special focus on practical requirements (e.g., alarm threshold values have to take into account the smallest detectable signal levels of deployed sensors before being established and specific issues when dealing with system implementations. Within the framework of the SafeLand European project, a questionnaire was sent to about one-hundred institutions in charge of landslide management. Finally, we interpreted answers from experts belonging to 14 operational units related to 23 monitored landslides. Although no standard requirements exist for designing and operating EWSs, this review highlights some key elements, such as the importance of pre-investigation work, the redundancy and robustness of monitoring systems, the establishment of different scenarios adapted to gradual increasing of alert levels, and the necessity of confidence and trust between local populations and scientists. Moreover, it also confirms the need to improve our capabilities for failure forecasting, monitoring techniques and integration of water processes into landslide conceptual models.

  1. Distributed GIS for automated natural hazard zonation mapping Internet-SMS warning towards sustainable society

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Devanjan Bhattacharya

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Today, open systems are needed for real time analysis and warnings on geo-hazards and over time can be achieved using Open Source Geographical Information System (GIS-based platform such as GeoNode which is being contributed to by developers around the world. To develop on an open source platform is a very vital component for better disaster information management as far as spatial data infrastructures are concerned and this would be extremely vital when huge databases are to be created and consulted regularly for city planning at different scales, particularly satellite images and maps of locations. There is a big need for spatially referenced data creation, analysis, and management. Some of the salient points that this research would be able to definitely contribute with GeoNode, being an open source platform, are facilitating the creation, sharing, and collaborative use of geospatial data. The objective is development of an automated natural hazard zonation system with Internet-short message service (SMS warning utilizing geomatics for sustainable societies. A concept of developing an internet-resident geospatial geohazard warning system has been put forward in this research, which can communicate alerts via SMS. There has been a need to develop an automated integrated system to categorize hazard and issue warning that reaches users directly. At present, no web-enabled warning system exists which can disseminate warning after hazard evaluation at one go and in real time. The objective of this research work has been to formalize a notion of an integrated, independent, generalized, and automated geo-hazard warning system making use of geo-spatial data under popular usage platform. In this paper, a model of an automated geo-spatial hazard warning system has been elaborated. The functionality is to be modular in architecture having GIS-graphical user interface (GUI, input, understanding, rainfall prediction, expert, output, and warning modules. A

  2. Application of Seismic Array Processing to Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meng, L.; Allen, R. M.; Ampuero, J. P.

    2013-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems that can issue warnings prior to the arrival of strong ground shaking during an earthquake are essential in mitigating seismic hazard. Many of the currently operating EEW systems work on the basis of empirical magnitude-amplitude/frequency scaling relations for a point source. This approach is of limited effectiveness for large events, such as the 2011 Tohoku-Oki earthquake, for which ignoring finite source effects may result in underestimation of the magnitude. Here, we explore the concept of characterizing rupture dimensions in real time for EEW using clusters of dense low-cost accelerometers located near active faults. Back tracing the waveforms recorded by such arrays allows the estimation of the earthquake rupture size, duration and directivity in real-time, which enables the EEW of M > 7 earthquakes. The concept is demonstrated with the 2004 Parkfield earthquake, one of the few big events (M>6) that have been recorded by a local small-scale seismic array (UPSAR array, Fletcher et al, 2006). We first test the approach against synthetic rupture scenarios constructed by superposition of empirical Green's functions. We find it important to correct for the bias in back azimuth induced by dipping structures beneath the array. We implemented the proposed methodology to the mainshock in a simulated real-time environment. After calibrating the dipping-layer effect with data from smaller events, we obtained an estimated rupture length of 9 km, consistent with the distance between the two main high frequency subevents identified by back-projection using all local stations (Allman and Shearer, 2007). We proposed to deploy small-scale arrays every 30 km along the San Andreas Fault. The array processing is performed in local processing centers at each array. The output is compared with finite fault solutions based on real-time GPS system and then incorporated into the standard ElarmS system. The optimal aperture and array geometry is

  3. Feasibility and Reliability of Pediatric Early Warning Score in the Emergency Department.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Xun; Tilford, Bradley; Duffy, Elizabeth; Kobayashi, Hitomi; Ryan, Kelley; Johnson, Mindi; Page, Bethany; Martin, Claire; Caldwell, Rhonda; Mahajan, Prashant

    2016-01-01

    Pediatric early warning scores in an emergency department may be used in routine patient evaluation of illness severity and resource allocation, thereby positively impacting quality and safety in pediatric care. This prospective nursing study assessed the feasibility and reliability of pediatric early warning scores in a busy, inner-city, level 1 trauma center pediatric emergency department. The pediatric early warning scores demonstrated high interrater reliability (degree of agreement among scorers) (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.91) and intrarater reliability (multiple repetitions by a single scorer) (intraclass correlation coefficient = 0.90).

  4. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juliana de Oliveira Freitas Miranda

    Full Text Available ABSTRACT Objective: to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. Method: a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. Results: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. Conclusion: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied.

  5. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration 1

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; de Camargo, Climene Laura; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

    2017-01-01

    ABSTRACT Objective: to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. Method: a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. Results: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. Conclusion: the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. PMID:28699997

  6. Tsunamis: Detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Joseph, A.

    globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami...

  7. Application of real-time GPS to earthquake early warning

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Richard M. Allen; Alon Ziv

    2011-01-01

      Real-time GPS can provide static-offset observations during an earthquake Real-time GPS provides a robust constrain on magnitude for warnings GPS networks should be used as a companion to seismic...

  8. The Most Effective Methods for Delivering Severe Weather Early Warnings to Fishermen on Lake Victoria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tushemereirwe, Richard; Tuhebwe, Doreen; Cooper, Mary Ann; D'ujanga, Florence Mutonyi

    2017-02-22

    Introduction : It is estimated that five thousand people die on Lake Victoria every year by drowning which is triggered by severe weather hazards like lightning. Objectives :  In order to improve predictability of severe weather conditions on Lake Victoria, there is need to deliver timely and effective Severe Weather Early Warning Systems (SWEWS) to those at risk. On Lake Victoria, previous SWEW service trials ceased with the end of the funding grants. This study therefore assessed the possibility of sustaining the SWEW service by assessing willingness to pay.   Methods : An assessment was conducted between March and May 2015 to determine the SWEW service improvements desired by the population. A convenience sample of respondents was gathered and interviewed during impromptu visits to landing sites on Lake Victoria. The respondents were also among community members that had earlier participated in a pilot assessing the feasibility of mobile phones is delivering SWEW alerts.  Semi-structured questionnaires were administered to fishermen and fisher folks at the landing site to gather suggestions/strategies for (i) better design and implementation of SWEW service, (ii) use of smart phones, and (iii) their ability and willingness to pay for a SWEW service. Results were presented as frequencies. Results : Two hundred fifteen respondents from fourteen landing sites (communities) were interviewed. Over 50% of the respondents (113/215) were aware about at least one community member who had been injured due to lightening on the lake in the past year. Ninety two percent (198/215) of the respondents reported using mobile phones as their main tool of communication but only 4% had smart phones that could receive early warning weather alerts through internet connectivity. Seventy five percent of respondents said they would welcome a system that could deliver commercial weather alerts and 65% were willing to pay for such a service.   Conclusions : A SWEW service is feasible

  9. The Namibia Early Flood Warning System, A CEOS Pilot Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandl, Daniel; Frye, Stuart; Cappelaere, Pat; Sohlberg, Robert; Handy, Matthew; Grossman, Robert

    2012-01-01

    Over the past year few years, an international collaboration has developed a pilot project under the auspices of Committee on Earth Observation Satellite (CEOS) Disasters team. The overall team consists of civilian satellite agencies. For this pilot effort, the development team consists of NASA, Canadian Space Agency, Univ. of Maryland, Univ. of Colorado, Univ. of Oklahoma, Ukraine Space Research Institute and Joint Research Center(JRC) for European Commission. This development team collaborates with regional , national and international agencies to deliver end-to-end disaster coverage. In particular, the team in collaborating on this effort with the Namibia Department of Hydrology to begin in Namibia . However, the ultimate goal is to expand the functionality to provide early warning over the South Africa region. The initial collaboration was initiated by United Nations Office of Outer Space Affairs and CEOS Working Group for Information Systems and Services (WGISS). The initial driver was to demonstrate international interoperability using various space agency sensors and models along with regional in-situ ground sensors. In 2010, the team created a preliminary semi-manual system to demonstrate moving and combining key data streams and delivering the data to the Namibia Department of Hydrology during their flood season which typically is January through April. In this pilot, a variety of moderate resolution and high resolution satellite flood imagery was rapidly delivered and used in conjunction with flood predictive models in Namibia. This was collected in conjunction with ground measurements and was used to examine how to create a customized flood early warning system. During the first year, the team made use of SensorWeb technology to gather various sensor data which was used to monitor flood waves traveling down basins originating in Angola, but eventually flooding villages in Namibia. The team made use of standardized interfaces such as those articulated

  10. Validation of a Paediatric Early Warning Score: first results and implications of usage

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fuijkschot, J.; Vernhout, B.; Lemson, J.; Draaisma, J.M.T.; Loeffen, J.L.C.M.

    2015-01-01

    Timely recognition of deterioration of hospitalised children is important to improve mortality. We developed a modified Paediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) and studied the effects by performing three different cohort studies using different end points. Taking unplanned Paediatric Intensive Care

  11. Body size shifts and early warning signals precede the historic collapse of whale stocks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clements, Christopher F; Blanchard, Julia L; Nash, Kirsty L; Hindell, Mark A; Ozgul, Arpat

    2017-06-22

    Predicting population declines is a key challenge in the face of global environmental change. Abundance-based early warning signals have been shown to precede population collapses; however, such signals are sensitive to the low reliability of abundance estimates. Here, using historical data on whales harvested during the 20th century, we demonstrate that early warning signals can be present not only in the abundance data, but also in the more reliable body size data of wild populations. We show that during the period of commercial whaling, the mean body size of caught whales declined dramatically (by up to 4 m over a 70-year period), leading to early warning signals being detectable up to 40 years before the global collapse of whale stocks. Combining abundance and body size data can reduce the length of the time series required to predict collapse, and decrease the chances of false positive early warning signals.

  12. ANALYSIS OF FORECASTING METHODS FROM THE POINT OF VIEW OF EARLY WARNING CONCEPT IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2017-12-01

    Full Text Available Early warning system (EWS based on a reliable forecasting process has become a critical component of the management of large complex industrial projects in the globalized transnational environment. The purpose of this research is to critically analyze the forecasting methods from the point of view of early warning, choosing those useful for the construction of EWS. This research addresses complementary techniques, using Bayesian Networks, which addresses both uncertainties and causality in project planning and execution, with the goal of generating early warning signals for project managers. Even though Bayesian networks have been widely used in a range of decision-support applications, their application as early warning systems for project management is still new.

  13. EPA, NASA, NOAA and USGS Creating Early Warning System to Detect Harmful Algal Blooms

    Science.gov (United States)

    WASHINGTON- The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) announced today that it is developing an early warning indicator system using historical and current satellite data to detect algal blooms. EPA researchers will develop a mobile app to inform water

  14. Early Warning Indicators for Population-Based Monitoring of HIV Drug Resistance in 6 African Countries

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sigaloff, Kim C. E.; Hamers, Raph L.; Menke, Jack; Labib, Moheb; Siwale, Margaret; Ive, Prudence; Botes, Mariette E.; Kityo, Cissy; Mandaliya, Kishor; Wellington, Maureen; Osibogun, Akin; Geskus, Ronald B.; Stevens, Wendy S.; van Vugt, Michèle; Rinke de Wit, Tobias F.

    2012-01-01

    Human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) RNA testing and HIV drug resistance (HIVDR) testing are not routinely available for therapeutic monitoring of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy (ART) in resource-limited settings. World Health Organization HIVDR early warning indicators (EWIs) assess ART

  15. [Early-warning and prediction technology of harmful algal bloom: a review].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Hai-Nan; Wang, Xin-Ze; He, Sheng-Bing; Zheng, Xiang-Yong; Wu, De-Yi

    2009-11-01

    Harmful algal bloom (HAB) occurs frequently and causes serious damage. To study the early-warning and prediction technology of HAB is of significance for the early-warning and prediction, ecological control, and disaster prevention and mitigation of HAB. This paper reviewed the research progress in the early-warning and prediction technologies of HAB, including transport prediction, specific factors critical value prediction, data-driven model, and ecological math model, and evaluated the advantages and disadvantages of these four types of technologies. Some new ideas were brought forward about the prediction of cyanobacterial growth rate based on cell characteristics, and the early-warning of cyanobacterial bloom based on algal community characteristics.

  16. Flood and landslide warning based on rainfall thresholds and soil moisture indexes: the HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System for Sicily

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Brigandì

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The main focus of the paper is to present a flood and landslide early warning system, named HEWS (Hydrohazards Early Warning System, specifically developed for the Civil Protection Department of Sicily, based on the combined use of rainfall thresholds, soil moisture modelling and quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF. The warning system is referred to 9 different Alert Zones in which Sicily has been divided into and based on a threshold system of three different increasing critical levels: ordinary, moderate and high. In this system, for early flood warning, a Soil Moisture Accounting (SMA model provides daily soil moisture conditions, which allow to select a specific set of three rainfall thresholds, one for each critical level considered, to be used for issue the alert bulletin. Wetness indexes, representative of the soil moisture conditions of a catchment, are calculated using a simple, spatially-lumped rainfall–streamflow model, based on the SCS-CN method, and on the unit hydrograph approach, that require daily observed and/or predicted rainfall, and temperature data as input. For the calibration of this model daily continuous time series of rainfall, streamflow and air temperature data are used. An event based lumped rainfall–runoff model has been, instead, used for the derivation of the rainfall thresholds for each catchment in Sicily characterised by an area larger than 50 km2. In particular, a Kinematic Instantaneous Unit Hydrograph based lumped rainfall–runoff model with the SCS-CN routine for net rainfall was developed for this purpose. For rainfall-induced shallow landslide warning, empirical rainfall thresholds provided by Gariano et al. (2015 have been included in the system. They were derived on an empirical basis starting from a catalogue of 265 shallow landslides in Sicily in the period 2002–2012. Finally, Delft-FEWS operational forecasting platform has been applied to link input data, SMA model and rainfall

  17. Behavioural ecotoxicology, an "early warning" signal to assess environmental quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellou, Jocelyne

    2011-01-01

    In this review, the position of behavioural ecotoxicology within the available means to assess the status of marine environments is described as filling the gap for the needed "early warning" signals. A few examples of studies performed since the 1960s are discussed to highlight the sensitivity of these approaches in investigating the effects of chemicals, including priority pollutants and emerging contaminants, relative to conventional toxicity tests measuring survival. The advantage of the behavioural response is due to the integration of biochemical and physiological processes that reflect changes at higher levels of organisation with ecological relevance. Avoidance often represents a behavioural symptom easily detected in many animals exposed to contaminants and would be a useful test to explore more widely. This rapid response would reflect a defence mechanism protective against further exposure and the potential development of more pronounced deleterious effects, whilst in some cases, escape could lead to the relocation of a species with negative consequences. An investigation of the avoidance behaviour of mud shrimp, Corophium volutator, along with the chemical analyses of sediments and amphipods to assess the quality of harbour sediments is summarised. The body burden of the amphipods was 1,000 times lower than the one associated with narcosis, emphasizing the sensitivity of this endpoint. The application of this acute toxicity test is briefly compared to additional work that involved intertidal mussels collected in the field. Recent research undertaken with mud snails, Ilyanassa obsoleta, and harbour sediments confirmed the usefulness of the escape behaviour as an assessment tool. However, the limits of the state of knowledge regarding the fate of contaminants in species with the ability to metabolise contaminants is further discussed along with directions to be pursued to address questions arising from the reviewed literature.

  18. Neural Network Methodology for Earthquake Early Warning - first applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenzel, F.; Koehler, N.; Cua, G.; Boese, M.

    2007-12-01

    PreSEIS is a method for earthquake early warning for finite faults (Böse, 2006) that is based on Artificial Neural Networks (ANN's), which are used for the mapping of seismic observations onto likely source parameters, including the moment magnitude and the location of an earthquake. PreSEIS integrates all available information on ground shaking at different sensors in a seismic network and up-dates the estimates of seismic source parameters regularly with proceeding time. PreSEIS has been developed and tested with synthetic waveform data using the example of Istanbul, Turkey (Böse, 2006). We will present first results of the application of PreSEIS to real data from Southern California, recorded at stations from the Southern California Seismic Network. The dataset consists of 69 shallow local earthquakes with moment magnitudes ranging between 1.96 and 7.1. The data come from broadband (20 or 40 Hz) or high broadband (80 or 100 Hz), high gain channels (3-component). The Southern California dataset will allow a comparison of our results to those of the Virtual Seismologist (Cua, 2004). We used the envelopes of the waveforms defined by Cua (2004) as input for the ANN's. The envelopes were obtained by taking the maximum absolute amplitude value of the recorded ground motion time history over a 1-second time window. Due to the fact that not all of the considered stations have recorded each earthquake, the missing records were replaced by synthetic envelopes, calculated by envelope attenuation relationships developed by Cua (2004).

  19. Factors affecting response to national early warning score (NEWS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolic, Ivana; Crane, Smiley; McCartney, Suzanne; Perkins, Zane; Taylor, Alex

    2015-05-01

    The NEWS is a physiological score, which prescribes an appropriate response for the deteriorating patient in need of urgent medical care. However, it has been suggested that compliance with early warning scoring systems for identifying patient deterioration may vary out of hours. We aimed to (1) assess the scoring accuracy and the adequacy of the prescribed clinical responses to NEWS and (2) assess whether responses were affected by time of day, day of week and score severity. We performed a prospective observational study of 370 adult patients admitted to an acute medical ward in a London District General Hospital. Patient characteristics, NEW score, time of day, day of week and clinical response data were collected for the first 24h of admission. Patients with less than a 12h hospital stay were excluded. We analysed data with univariate and multivariate logistic regression. In 70 patients (18.9%) the NEW score was calculated incorrectly. There was a worsening of the clinical response with increasing NEW score. An appropriate clinical response to the NEWS was observed in 274 patients (74.1%). Patients admitted on the weekend were more likely to receive an inadequate response, compared to patients admitted during the week (pscore remained significantly associated with an inadequate clinical response. Furthermore, our results demonstrate a small increase in inadequate NEWS responses at night, however this was not clinically or statistically significant. The high rate of incorrectly calculated NEW scores has implications for the prescribed actions. Clinical response to NEWS score triggers is significantly worse at weekends, highlighting an important patient safety concern. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. CISN ShakeAlert Earthquake Early Warning System Monitoring Tools

    Science.gov (United States)

    Henson, I. H.; Allen, R. M.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2015-12-01

    CISN ShakeAlert is a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed and tested by the California Integrated Seismic Network. The system has recently been expanded to support redundant data processing and communications. It now runs on six machines at three locations with ten Apache ActiveMQ message brokers linking together 18 waveform processors, 12 event association processes and 4 Decision Module alert processes. The system ingests waveform data from about 500 stations and generates many thousands of triggers per day, from which a small portion produce earthquake alerts. We have developed interactive web browser system-monitoring tools that display near real time state-of-health and performance information. This includes station availability, trigger statistics, communication and alert latencies. Connections to regional earthquake catalogs provide a rapid assessment of the Decision Module hypocenter accuracy. Historical performance can be evaluated, including statistics for hypocenter and origin time accuracy and alert time latencies for different time periods, magnitude ranges and geographic regions. For the ElarmS event associator, individual earthquake processing histories can be examined, including details of the transmission and processing latencies associated with individual P-wave triggers. Individual station trigger and latency statistics are available. Detailed information about the ElarmS trigger association process for both alerted events and rejected events is also available. The Google Web Toolkit and Map API have been used to develop interactive web pages that link tabular and geographic information. Statistical analysis is provided by the R-Statistics System linked to a PostgreSQL database.

  1. Optical-Fiber Strainmeters for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zumberge, M. A.; Agnew, D. C.; Hatfield, W.; Wyatt, F. K.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) includes two tasks: detecting an earthquake and estimating its size. Detection requires low instrumental noise; estimating the size can be done most simply by estimating the moment from the static (near-field) signal, which does not saturate with magnitude. The usual approach in EEW has been to use inertial sensors (detecting acceleration) for low noise, and GPS (measuring displacement) to determine the static signal. Because a strainmeter can combine low noise and broad frequency response in a single sensor, such systems should also be considered for EEW networks. While borehole strainmeters often do not record the static offset correctly, past results from longbase laser strainmeters (LSM's) show that this can be done reliably if the strain is measured over hundreds of meters. Recent developments in optical fiber LSM's have allowed the construction of low-cost, low-power long-base LSM's with low noise in the frequency band of interest. Digital processing of the interference signal makes possible a flat frequency response from 0 to 100 Hz and a high dynamic range, with the upper limit (strain of 0.1%) set by the tensioning of the fiber. Such instruments can be flexibly sited, including in locations, such as the ocean floor, impracticable for GPS. Application of such instruments to EEW will require further, though straightforward, development of processing methods and installation techniques, as well as testing under conditions of high dynamic strain; additional modeling will be needed to determine the optimal use LSM's in an EEW seismometer/GPS network.

  2. Incorporating Hydroepidemiology into the Epidemia Malaria Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wimberly, M. C.; Merkord, C. L.; Henebry, G. M.; Senay, G. B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning of the timing and locations of malaria epidemics can facilitate the targeting of resources for prevention and emergency response. In response to this need, we are developing the Epidemic Prognosis Incorporating Disease and Environmental Monitoring for Integrated Assessment (EPIDEMIA) computer system. EPIDEMIA incorporates software for capturing, processing, and integrating environmental and epidemiological data from multiple sources; data assimilation techniques that continually update models and forecasts; and a web-based interface that makes the resulting information available to public health decision makers. The system will enable forecasts that incorporate lagged responses to environmental risk factors as well as information about recent trends in malaria cases. Because the egg, larval, and pupal stages of mosquito development occur in aquatic habitats, information about the spatial and temporal distributions of stagnant water bodies is critical for modeling malaria risk. Potential sources of hydrological data include satellite-derived rainfall estimates, evapotranspiration (ET) calculated using a simplified surface energy balance model, and estimates of soil moisture and fractional water cover from passive microwave radiometry. We used partial least squares regression to analyze and visualize seasonal patterns of these variables in relation to malaria cases using data from 49 districts in the Amhara region of Ethiopia. Seasonal patterns of rainfall were strongly associated with the incidence and seasonality of malaria across the region, and model fit was improved by the addition of remotely-sensed ET and soil moisture variables. The results highlight the importance of remotely-sensed hydrological data for modeling malaria risk in this region and emphasize the value of an ensemble approach that utilizes multiple sources of information about precipitation and land surface wetness. These variables will be incorporated into the forecasting models at

  3. New dimensions in early flood warning across the globe using grand-ensemble weather predictions

    OpenAIRE

    Pappenberger, Florian; Bartholmes, Jens; Thielen, Jutta; Cloke, Hannah L.; Buizza, Roberto; de Roo, Ad

    2008-01-01

    Early and effective flood warning is essential to initiate timely measures to reduce loss of life and economic damage. The availability of several global ensemble weather prediction systems through the “THORPEX Interactive Grand Global Ensemble” (TIGGE) archive provides an opportunity to explore new dimensions in early flood forecasting and warning. TIGGE data has been used as meteorological input to the European Flood Alert System (EFAS) for a case study of a flood event in Romania in Octobe...

  4. A Randomized Trial of Palliative Care Discussions Linked to an Automated Early Warning System Alert.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picker, David; Dans, Maria; Heard, Kevin; Bailey, Thomas; Chen, Yixin; Lu, Chenyang; Kollef, Marin H

    2017-02-01

    To determine whether an Early Warning System could identify patients wishing to focus on palliative care measures. Prospective, randomized, pilot study. Barnes-Jewish Hospital, Saint Louis, MO (January 15, 2015, to December 12, 2015). A total of 206 patients; 89 intervention (43.2%) and 117 controls (56.8%). Palliative care in high-risk patients targeted by an Early Warning System. Advanced directive documentation was significantly greater prior to discharge in the intervention group (37.1% vs 15.4%; p Warning System alerts can identify patients potentially benefitting from directed palliative care discussions and reduce the number of ICU transfers.

  5. ShakeAlert—An earthquake early warning system for the United States west coast

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burkett, Erin R.; Given, Douglas D.; Jones, Lucile M.

    2014-08-29

    Earthquake early warning systems use earthquake science and the technology of monitoring systems to alert devices and people when shaking waves generated by an earthquake are expected to arrive at their location. The seconds to minutes of advance warning can allow people and systems to take actions to protect life and property from destructive shaking. The U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), in collaboration with several partners, has been working to develop an early warning system for the United States. ShakeAlert, a system currently under development, is designed to cover the West Coast States of California, Oregon, and Washington.

  6. Rapid Earthquake Magnitude Estimation for Early Warning Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, Dara; Bock, Yehuda; Melgar, Diego

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake magnitude is a concise metric that provides invaluable information about the destructive potential of a seismic event. Rapid estimation of magnitude for earthquake and tsunami early warning purposes requires reliance on near-field instrumentation. For large magnitude events, ground motions can exceed the dynamic range of near-field broadband seismic instrumentation (clipping). Strong motion accelerometers are designed with low gains to better capture strong shaking. Estimating earthquake magnitude rapidly from near-source strong-motion data requires integration of acceleration waveforms to displacement. However, integration amplifies small errors, creating unphysical drift that must be eliminated with a high pass filter. The loss of the long period information due to filtering is an impediment to magnitude estimation in real-time; the relation between ground motion measured with strong-motion instrumentation and magnitude saturates, leading to underestimation of earthquake magnitude. Using station displacements from Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) observations, we can supplement the high frequency information recorded by traditional seismic systems with long-period observations to better inform rapid response. Unlike seismic-only instrumentation, ground motions measured with GNSS scale with magnitude without saturation [Crowell et al., 2013; Melgar et al., 2015]. We refine the current magnitude scaling relations using peak ground displacement (PGD) by adding a large GNSS dataset of earthquakes in Japan. Because it does not suffer from saturation, GNSS alone has significant advantages over seismic-only instrumentation for rapid magnitude estimation of large events. The earthquake's magnitude can be estimated within 2-3 minutes of earthquake onset time [Melgar et al., 2013]. We demonstrate that seismogeodesy, the optimal combination of GNSS and seismic data at collocated stations, provides the added benefit of improving the sensitivity of

  7. Validation of the Children's Hospital Early Warning System for Critical Deterioration Recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLellan, Mary C; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Connor, Jean Anne

    Early warning scores, such as the Children's Hospital Early Warning Score (CHEWS), are used by hospitals to identify patients at risk for critical deterioration and trigger clinicians to intervene and prevent further deterioration. This study's objectives were to validate the CHEWS and to compare the CHEWS to the previously validated Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) for early detection of critical deterioration in hospitalized, non-cardiac patients at a pediatric hospital. A retrospective cohort study reviewed medical and surgical patients at a quaternary academic pediatric hospital. CHEWS scores and abstracted PEWS scores were obtained on cases (n=360) and a randomly selected comparison sample (n=776). Specificity, sensitivity, area under the receiver-operating characteristic curves (AUROC) and early warning times were calculated for both scoring tools. The AUROC for CHEWS was 0.902 compared to 0.798 for PEWS (pscores ≥3 was 91.4% for CHEWS and 73.6% for PEWS with specificity of 67.8% for CHEWS and 88.5% for PEWS. Sensitivity for scores ≥5 was 75.6% for CHEWS and 38.9% for PEWS with specificity of 88.5% for CHEWS and 93.9% for PEWS. The early warning time from critical score (≥5) to critical deterioration was 3.8h for CHEWS versus 0.6h for PEWS (pearly warning time than the PEWS for identifying children at risk for critical deterioration. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Implementation of a Seismic Early Warning System in Portugal Mainland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madureira, Guilherme; Carrilho, Fernando

    2017-04-01

    Portugal mainland is located near the border between the Eurasian and Nubian plates, whose interaction is the main responsible for a significant seismic activity in the area, with historical occurrence of several catastrophic events (e.g. Lisbon 1755 earthquake [Mag 8.7]), most of which haviguilhng epicenter rise in submerged area, located in the Cadiz Gulf and Southwest of San Vincent Cape. Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is presently a very effective concept to be applied in the mitigation of the effects caused by large earthquakes. For the mentioned area a feasibility study of a EEWS was made in the ALERT-ES project. It was found that the system could be effective to protect cities and infrastructures located at larger distances (ex: Lisbon) from the areas, located south and southwest of PT mainland, where the larger earthquakes are expected to be originated. Considering the use of a new strong-motion network recently implemented in the south of PT mainland, we concluded that the lead-times could be improved. We opted by the implementation of the well known computational platform PRESTO. In the adaptation of the mentioned platform to the local reality one of the challenges was the computation of fast moment magnitude estimates, because regional attenuation must be properly considered, and a specific study was made on this issue. The several simulations that were performed showed a reasonably good performance of the system, both on magnitude evaluation and epicentre location. However we also noted that the problems in the acquisition instruments are a very important source of disturbance in the performance of the EEWS, pointing to a need of a very accurate quality control of the strong-motion network. Considering end-users, we are also developing specific software for intensity estimation at the target places and to trigger visual and audio alerts in accordance to the expected level of shaking. This work is supported by the EU project TSUMAPS-NEAM, Agreement Number

  9. Early warnings of hazardous thunderstorms over Lake Victoria

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Thiery, Wim; Gudmundsson, Lukas; Bedka, Kristopher; Semazzi, Fredrick H.M.; Lhermitte, S.L.M.; Willems, Patrick; van Lipzig, Nicole P. M.; Seneviratne, Sonia I.

    2017-01-01

    Weather extremes have harmful impacts on communities around Lake Victoria in East Africa. Every year, intense nighttime thunderstorms cause numerous boating accidents on the lake, resulting in thousands of deaths among fishermen. Operational storm warning systems are therefore crucial. Here we

  10. Web-based Tsunami Early Warning System with instant Tsunami Propagation Calculations in the GPU Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, M.; Spazier, J.; Reißland, S.

    2014-12-01

    Usually, tsunami early warning and mitigation systems (TWS or TEWS) are based on several software components deployed in a client-server based infrastructure. The vast majority of systems importantly include desktop-based clients with a graphical user interface (GUI) for the operators in early warning centers. However, in times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms, introduced by continuously evolving approaches in information and communications technology (ICT), have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in three research projects - 'German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System' (GITEWS), 'Distant Early Warning System' (DEWS), and 'Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises' (TRIDEC) - new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based prototype to open up new prospects for EWS. This prototype, named 'TRIDEC Cloud', merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services into one platform for automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The prototype in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. The integration of GPU accelerated tsunami simulation computations have been an integral part of this prototype to foster early warning with on-demand tsunami predictions based on actual source parameters. However, the platform is meant for researchers around the world to make use of the cloud-based GPU computation to analyze other types of geohazards and natural hazards and react upon the computed situation picture with a web-based GUI in a web browser at remote sites. The current website is an early alpha version for demonstration purposes to give the

  11. How do I know if I’ve improved my continental scale flood early warning system?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cloke, Hannah L.; Pappenberger, Florian; Smith, Paul J.; Wetterhall, Fredrik

    2017-04-01

    Flood early warning systems mitigate damages and loss of life and are an economically efficient way of enhancing disaster resilience. The use of continental scale flood early warning systems is rapidly growing. The European Flood Awareness System (EFAS) is a pan-European flood early warning system forced by a multi-model ensemble of numerical weather predictions. Responses to scientific and technical changes can be complex in these computationally expensive continental scale systems, and improvements need to be tested by evaluating runs of the whole system. It is demonstrated here that forecast skill is not correlated with the value of warnings. In order to tell if the system has been improved an evaluation strategy is required that considers both forecast skill and warning value. The combination of a multi-forcing ensemble of EFAS flood forecasts is evaluated with a new skill-value strategy. The full multi-forcing ensemble is recommended for operational forecasting, but, there are spatial variations in the optimal forecast combination. Results indicate that optimizing forecasts based on value rather than skill alters the optimal forcing combination and the forecast performance. Also indicated is that model diversity and ensemble size are both important in achieving best overall performance. The use of several evaluation measures that consider both skill and value is strongly recommended when considering improvements to early warning systems.

  12. Information systems in a changing climate: Early warnings and drought risk management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Roger S. Pulwarty

    2014-06-01

    Full Text Available Drought is among the most damaging, and least understood, of all “natural” hazards. Although some droughts last a single season and affect only small areas, the instrumental and paleoclimate records show that droughts have sometimes continued for decades and have impacted millions of square kilometers in North America, West Africa, and East Asia. To cross the spectrum of potential drivers and impacts, drought information systems have multiple sub-systems which include an integrated risk assessment, communication and decision support system of which early warning is a central component and output. An early warning system is much more than a forecast – it is a linked risk information (including people׳s perception of risk and communication system that actively engages communities involved in preparedness. There are numerous drought systems warning systems being implemented at different scales of governance. We draw on the lessons of over 21 drought early warning systems around the world, in both developing and developed countries and at regional, national and community levels. The successes illustrate that effective early warning depends upon a multi-sectoral and interdisciplinary collaboration among all concerned actors at each stage in the warning process from monitoring to response and evaluation. However, the links between the community-based approach and the national and global EWSs are relatively weak. Using the rich experience of information systems across the globe, this paper identifies pathways for knowledge management and action at the relevant scales for decision-making in response to a changing climate.

  13. Building an Early Warning System for Crude Oil Price Using Neural Network

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wonho Song

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, a crisis index for the oil price shock is defined and a neural network model is specified for the prediction of the crisis index. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we build an early warning system for crude oil price. Although the oil price became one of the most important price index recently, no research efforts have been made to build an early warning system for crude oil price. Second, the neural network (NN model is used to construct the early warning sysIn this paper, a crisis index for the oil price shock is defined and a neural network model is specified for the prediction of the crisis index. This paper contributes to the literature in three ways. First, we build an early warning system for crude oil price. Although the oil price became one of the most important price index recently, no research efforts have been made to build an early warning system for crude oil price. Second, the neural network (NN model is used to construct the early warning system. Most early warning systems are built based on the signaling approach. In this paper, we show that the neural network models are more flexible and have greater potential as EWS than the signaling approach. Third, we allow the multi-level crisis index. Previous models allowed only a zero/one crisis index whereas our model permits as many levels as possible. With this new model, we try to answer whether the oil price collapse following the historical peak in 2008 was predictable. We compare the results from the NN model with those from the ordered probit (OP model, and show that the oil price crisis and the following crash were predictable by the NN model, but not by the OP model.

  14. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond

    OpenAIRE

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M.; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-01-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are...

  15. Early warning system scores for clinical deterioration in hospitalized patients: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, M E Beth; Chiovaro, Joseph C; O'Neil, Maya; Kansagara, Devan; Quiñones, Ana R; Freeman, Michele; Motu'apuaka, Makalapua L; Slatore, Christopher G

    2014-11-01

    Early warning system (EWS) scores are used by hospital care teams to recognize early signs of clinical deterioration and trigger more intensive care. To systematically review the evidence on the ability of early warning system scores to predict a patient's risk of clinical deterioration and the impact of early warning system implementation on health outcomes and resource utilization. We searched the MEDLINE, CINAHL, and Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials databases through May 2014. We included English-language studies of early warning system scores used with adults admitted to medical or surgical wards. We abstracted study characteristics, including population, setting, sample size, duration, and criteria used for early warning system scoring. For predictive ability, the primary outcomes were modeled for discrimination on 48-hour mortality, cardiac arrest, or pulmonary arrest. Outcomes for the impact of early warning system implementation included 30-day mortality, cardiovascular events, use of vasopressors, respiratory failure, days on ventilator, and resource utilization. We assessed study quality using a modified Quality in Prognosis Studies assessment tool where applicable. Of 11,183 citations studies reviewed, one controlled trial and 20 observational studies of 13 unique models met our inclusion criteria. In eight studies, researchers addressed the predictive ability of early warning system tools and found a strong predictive value for death (area under the receiver operating characteristic curve [AUROC], 0.88-0.93) and cardiac arrest (AUROC, 0.74-0.86) within 48 hours. In 13 studies (one controlled trial and 12 pre-post observational studies), researchers addressed the impact on health outcomes and resource utilization and had mixed results. The one controlled trial was of good quality, and the researchers found no difference in mortality, transfers to the ICU, or length of hospital stay. The pre-post designs of the remaining studies have

  16. People-centred landslide early warning systems in the context of risk management

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haß, S.; Asch, K.; Fernandez-Steeger, T.; Arnhardt, C.

    2009-04-01

    In the current hazard research people-centred warning becomes more and more important, because different types of organizations and groups have to be involved in the warning process. This fact has to be taken into account when developing early warning systems. The effectiveness of early warning depends not only on technical capabilities but also on the preparedness of decision makers and their immediate response on how to act in case of emergency. Hence early warning systems have to be regarded in the context of an integrated and holistic risk management. Disaster Risk Reduction (DRR) measures include people-centred, timely and understandable warning. Further responsible authorities have to be identified in advance and standards for risk communication have to be established. Up to now, hazard and risk assessment for geohazards focuses on the development of inventory, susceptibility, hazard and risk maps. But often, especially in Europe, there are no institutional structures for managing geohazards and in addition there is a lack of an authority that is legally obliged to alarm on landslides at national or regional level. One of the main characteristics within the warning process for natural hazards e.g. in Germany is the split of responsibility between scientific authorities (wissenschaftliche Fachbehörde) and enforcement authorities (Vollzugsbehörde). The scientific authority provides the experts who define the methods and measures for monitoring and evaluate the hazard level. The main focus is the acquisition and evaluation of data and subsequently the distribution of information. The enforcement authority issues official warnings about dangerous natural phenomena. Hence the information chain in the context of early warning ranges over two different institutions, the forecast service and the warning service. But there doesn't exist a framework for warning processes in terms of landslides as yet. The concept for managing natural disasters is often reduced to

  17. Tsunamis detection, monitoring, and early-warning technologies

    CERN Document Server

    Joseph, Antony

    2011-01-01

    The devastating impacts of tsunamis have received increased focus since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 2004, the most devastating tsunami in over 400 years of recorded history. This professional reference is the first of its kind: it provides a globally inclusive review of the current state of tsunami detection technology and will be a much-needed resource for oceanographers and marine engineers working to upgrade and integrate their tsunami warning systems. It focuses on the two main tsunami warning systems (TWS): International and Regional. Featured are comparative assessments of detection, monitoring, and real-time reporting technologies. The challenges of detection through remote measuring stations are also addressed, as well as the historical and scientific aspects of tsunamis.

  18. Early warnings of extreme winds using the ECMWF Extreme Forecast Index

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petroliagis, Thomas I.; Pinson, Pierre

    2014-01-01

    The European FP7 SafeWind Project aims at developing research towards a European vision of wind power forecasting, which requires advanced meteorological support concerning extreme wind events. This study is focused mainly on early warnings of extreme winds in the early medium-range. Three synoptic...... regimes. Overall, it becomes clear that the first indications of an extreme wind event might come from the ECMWF deterministic and/or probabilistic components capturing very intense weather systems (possible windstorms) in the medium term. For early warnings, all available EPS Extreme Forecast Index (EFI......) formulations were used, by linking daily maximum wind speeds to EFI values for different forecast horizons. From all possible EFI schemes deployed for issuing early warnings, the highest skill was found for the Gust Factor formulation (EFI-10FGI). Using EFI-10FGI, the corresponding 99% threshold could provide...

  19. Development of an Impact-Oriented Quantitative Coastal Inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fakhruddin, S. H. M.; Babel, Mukand S.; Kawasaki, Akiyuki

    2014-05-01

    Coastal inundations are an increasing threat to the lives and livelihoods of people living in low-lying, highly-populated coastal areas. According to a World Bank Report in 2005, at least 2.6 million people may have drowned due to coastal inundation, particularly caused by storm surges, over the last 200 years. Forecasting and prediction of natural events, such as tropical and extra-tropical cyclones, inland flooding, and severe winter weather, provide critical guidance to emergency managers and decision-makers from the local to the national level, with the goal of minimizing both human and economic losses. This guidance is used to facilitate evacuation route planning, post-disaster response and resource deployment, and critical infrastructure protection and securing, and it must be available within a time window in which decision makers can take appropriate action. Recognizing this extreme vulnerability of coastal areas to inundation/flooding, and with a view to improve safety-related services for the community, research should strongly enhance today's forecasting, prediction and early warning capabilities in order to improve the assessment of coastal vulnerability and risks and develop adequate prevention, mitigation and preparedness measures. This paper tries to develop an impact-oriented quantitative coastal inundation forecasting and early warning system with social and economic assessment to address the challenges faced by coastal communities to enhance their safety and to support sustainable development, through the improvement of coastal inundation forecasting and warning systems.

  20. Strategic framework for socioeconomic viability of community-based early warning system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Homberg, M.J.C. van den; Posthumus, A.L.

    2014-01-01

    Christian Aid, Cordaid, PVGS and Practical Action established a community-based early warning system for cross-border floods between India and Nepal in 45 Indian villages. The project will scale to 95 villages early 2016. The number of stakeholders and organizational levels of this system with four

  1. Nurse-administered early warning score system can be used for emergency department triage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Christensen, Dorthea; Jensen, Nanna Martin; Maaløe, Rikke

    2011-01-01

    Studies have shown that early warning score systems can identify in-patients at high risk of catastrophic deterioration and this may possibly be used for an emergency department (ED) triage. Bispebjerg Hospital has introduced a multidisciplinary team (MT) in the ED activated by the Bispebjerg Early...

  2. Theory and Application of Early Warning Systems for High School and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carl, Bradley; Richardson, Jed T.; Cheng, Emily; Kim, HeeJin; Meyer, Robert H.

    2013-01-01

    This article describes the development of early warning indicators for high school and beyond in the Milwaukee Public Schools (MPS) by the Value-Added Research Center (VARC) at the University of Wisconsin-Madison, working in conjunction with staff from the Division of Research and Evaluation at MPS. Our work in MPS builds on prior early warning…

  3. A Framework for Monitoring and Maintenance of a Tsunami Early Warning System using ITIL®

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gensch, Stephan; Günther, Michael; Henneberger, Ralph; Strollo, Angelo

    2013-04-01

    Within this work, we present our approach and ongoing efforts to establish monitoring and maintenance processes for Tsunami Early Warning Systems. Practical work is done within the context of the Indonesian Tsunami Warning System (INATEWS) at Badan Meteorologi, Klimatologi dan Geofisika (BMKG) in Jakarta, Indonesia. The German contribution is well known as GITEWS. INATEWS is composed of several thousand integrated system components and numerous software processes. Due to the heterogeneity and complexity of the system, as well as the high availability needs, being an operational TEWS, real-time monitoring, reporting and scheduled preventive maintenance are needed. To develop and install an organizational and operational methodology for maintenance processes for INATEWS, we asserted ITIL® methods and are in development of Standard Operating Procedures (SOP) together with BMKG operational and management staff. ITIL®-conforming methods are one means of IT Service Management which has been adopted by a variety of service oriented IT providers. An early warning system does not expose classical consumer services, but the dissemination of warning messages and an early warning as a product may nevertheless be viewed as distinct services provided by a TEWS. We applied methods from ITIL® to the modular and hierarchical components of an early warning center, where minimum requirements on service availability, reliability and correctness of the warning product exist, from dissemination down to each sensor component. We describe functions of actors that ensure management of incidents and problems, as well as managing applications, IT operations and further technical issues. For the components of the early warning system, we present a model of event detection and event resolution. Real-time monitoring provides automated health-checks. Errors lead to reports to designated targets. Preventive maintenance provides findings on data and system availability, and data quality. Each

  4. Instant tsunami early warning based on real-time GPS – Tohoku 2011 case study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Hoechner

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available Taking the 2011 Tohoku earthquake as an example, we demonstrate the ability of real-time GPS to provide qualified tsunami early warning within minutes. While in earlier studies we demonstrated the power of the so-called GPS shield concept based on synthetic data, we here present a complete processing chain starting from actual GPS raw data and fully simulate the situation as it would be in a warning center. The procedure includes processing of GPS observations with predicted high precision orbits, inversion for slip and computation of the tsunami propagation and coastal warning levels. We show that in case of the Tohoku earthquake, it would be feasible to provide accurate tsunami warning as soon as 3 min after the beginning of the earthquake.

  5. Control charts as an early-warning system for workplace health outcomes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsson, J; Landstad, B J; Wiklund, H; Vinberg, S

    2011-01-01

    Statistical process control (SPC) charts have not been widely used to monitor workplace health and work environments. This research and effort to develop a more accurate and easy to use management control system for employee health is important from a humanistic, societal and economic standpoint, as well as complying with laws that regulate work environments. The purpose of the study is to design and discuss control charts as an early warning system for workplace health outcomes to promote workplace health management. Another purpose is to discuss relevant factors in the concept of the out-of-control action plan (OCAP) as a response when a chart warns that the workplace process may be malfunctioning. Two Swedish organizations were selected as case study organizations: a department at a university and an elderly care operation in a municipality. This study was explorative and should be seen as a starting point in learning how to use control charts for workplace health management. Self-assessed general health and new sick-cases per employee were selected as indicators for the control charts. An integrated early warning system with Cumulative Sums- and Shewhart-charts are presented to show a possible method as to how an early warning system can be structured through the use of statistical control charts. The conclusion of this study is that control charts, along with well-designed implementation, make up a powerful and useable managerial early-warning system which promotes workplace health and helps to prevent sickness absence.

  6. An early warning and control system for urban, drinking water quality protection: China's experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hou, Dibo; Song, Xiaoxuan; Zhang, Guangxin; Zhang, Hongjian; Loaiciga, Hugo

    2013-07-01

    An event-driven, urban, drinking water quality early warning and control system (DEWS) is proposed to cope with China's urgent need for protecting its urban drinking water. The DEWS has a web service structure and provides users with water quality monitoring functions, water quality early warning functions, and water quality accident decision-making functions. The DEWS functionality is guided by the principles of control theory and risk assessment as applied to the feedback control of urban water supply systems. The DEWS has been deployed in several large Chinese cities and found to perform well insofar as water quality early warning and emergency decision-making is concerned. This paper describes a DEWS for urban water quality protection that has been developed in China.

  7. A Systems Approach to Designing a Traffic Collision Avoidance Early Warning System

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marián Lamr

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available This article examines and evaluates the systems view of the concept of the collision avoidance early warning system (will be referred to as "the early warning system" in all further instances which uses traffic accident data and data mining algorithms. Principles of the General Systems Theory are used in describing the system and elaborating upon its attributes. Connections to other current telematic systems and its location in the hierarchy of state traffic safety units are discussed steadily and gradually in the article. It also describes the principles of the collision avoidance early warning system, along with its inputs and outputs and the elements and connections it is formed out of. With regard to the principles of the General Systems Theory isomorphism's are searched for and the feedback and the goals of the system are discussed within.

  8. Early warning method of Glacial Lake Outburst Floods based on temperature and rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Jingjing; Su, Pengcheng; Cheng, Zunlan

    2017-04-01

    Glacial lake outburst floods (GLOFs) are serious disasters in glacial areas. At present, glaciers are retreating while glacial lake area and the outburst risk increases due to the global warming. Therefore, the research of early warning method of GLOFs is important to prevent and reduce the disasters. This paper provides an early warning method using the temperature and rainfall as indices. The daily growth rate of positive antecedent accumulative temperature and the antecedent thirty days accumulative precipitation are calculated for 21 events of GLOF before 2010, based on data from the 21 meteorological stations nearby. The result shows that all the events are above the curve, TV = -0.0193RDC + 3.0018, which can be taken as the early warning threshold curve. This has been verified by the GLOF events in the Ranzeaco glacial lake on 2013-07-05.

  9. Constructing early warning information release system in towns enterprise clean production

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuwen, Huixin; He, Xueqiu; Qian, Xinming; Yuan, Mengqi

    2017-08-01

    China’s industry boom has not only brought unprecedented prosperity, but also caused the gradual depletion of various resources and the worsening of the natural environment. Experts admit that China is facing serious environmental problem, but they believe that they can seek a new path to overcome it through joint efforts. Early warning information release and clean production are the important concepts in addressing the imminent crisis. Early warning information release system can monitor and forecast the risk that affects the clean production. The author drawn the experiences and lessons from developed countries, combined with China’s reality, put forward countermeasures and suggestions about constructing early warning information release system in process of Chinese town-scaled enterprises clean production.

  10. Climate change implications and use of early warning systems for global dust storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harriman, Lindsey M.

    2014-01-01

    With increased changes in land cover and global climate, early detection and warning of dust storms in conjunction with effective and widespread information broadcasts will be essential to the prevention and mitigation of future risks and impacts. Human activities, seasonal variations and long-term climatic patterns influence dust storms. More research is needed to analyse these factors of dust mobilisation to create more certainty for the fate of vulnerable populations and ecosystems in the future. Early warning and communication systems, when in place and effectively implemented, can offer some relief to these vulnerable areas. As an issue that affects many regions of the world, there is a profound need to understand the potential changes and ultimately create better early warning systems for dust storms.

  11. Accuracy of a pediatric early warning score in the recognition of clinical deterioration.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miranda, Juliana de Oliveira Freitas; Camargo, Climene Laura de; Nascimento, Carlito Lopes; Portela, Daniel Sales; Monaghan, Alan

    2017-07-10

    to evaluate the accuracy of the version of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score translated and adapted for the Brazilian context, in the recognition of clinical deterioration. a diagnostic test study to measure the accuracy of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, in relation to a reference standard. The sample consisted of 271 children, aged 0 to 10 years, blindly evaluated by a nurse and a physician, specialists in pediatrics, with interval of 5 to 10 minutes between the evaluations, for the application of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context and of the reference standard. The data were processed and analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences and VassarStats.net programs. The performance of the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context was evaluated through the indicators of sensitivity, specificity, predictive values, area under the ROC curve, likelihood ratios and post-test probability. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context showed sensitivity of 73.9%, specificity of 95.5%, positive predictive value of 73.3%, negative predictive value of 94.7%, area under Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve of 91.9% and the positive post-test probability was 80%. the Brighton Pediatric Early Warning Score for the Brazilian context, presented good performance, considered valid for the recognition of clinical deterioration warning signs of the children studied. avaliar a acurácia da versão traduzida e adaptada do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score para o contexto brasileiro, no reconhecimento da deterioração clínica. estudo de teste diagnóstico para medir a acurácia do Brighton Paediatric Early Warning Score, para o contexto brasileiro, em relação a um padrão de referência. A amostra foi composta por 271 crianças de 0 a 10 anos, avaliadas de forma cega por uma enfermeira e um médico, especialistas em pediatria, com

  12. Evaluation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score Across Different Subspecialty Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dean, Nathan P; Fenix, J B; Spaeder, Michael; Levin, Amanda

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the ability of a Pediatric Early Warning Score to predict deterioration in different subspecialty patient populations. Single center, retrospective cohort study. Patients were classified into five groups: 1) cardiac; 2) hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant; 3) surgical; 4) neurologic; and 5) general medical. The relationship between the Pediatric Early Warning Score and unplanned ICU transfer requiring initiation of specific ICU therapies (intubation, high-flow nasal cannula, noninvasive ventilation, inotropes, or aggressive fluid hydration within 12 hr of transfer) was evaluated. Tertiary care, free-standing, academic children's hospital. All hospitalized acute care patients admitted over a 6-month time period (September 2012 to March 2013). None. During the study time period, 33,800 patient-days and 136 deteriorations were evaluated. Area under the curve ranged from 0.88 (surgical) to 0.94 (cardiac). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 3 ranged from 75% (surgical) to 94% (cardiology) and number needed to evaluate to find one deterioration was 11.5 (neurologic) to 43 patients (surgical). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score greater than or equal to 4 ranged from 54% (general medical) to 79% (hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant) and number needed to evaluate of 5.5 (neurologic) to 12 patients (general medical). Sensitivities for a Pediatric Early Warning Score of greater than or equal to 5 ranged from 25% (surgical) to 58% (hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant) and number needed to evaluate of 3.5 (cardiac, hematology/oncology/bone marrow transplant, neurologic) to eight patients (surgical). An elevated Pediatric Early Warning Score is associated with ICU transfer and receipt of ICU-specific interventions in patients across different pediatric subspecialty patient populations.

  13. RED Alert – Early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Deshpande, Alina [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2016-07-13

    This is the PDF of a presentation for a webinar given by Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) on the early warning or detection of global re-emerging infectious disease (RED). First, there is an overview of LANL biosurveillance tools. Then, information is given about RED Alert. Next, a demonstration is given of a component prototype. RED Alert is an analysis tool that can provide early warning or detection of the re-emergence of an infectious disease at the global level, but through a local lens.

  14. NEAR REAL-TIME DETERMINATION OF EARTHQUAKE SOURCE PARAMETERS FOR TSUNAMI EARLY WARNING FROM GEODETIC OBSERVATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Manneela

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Exemplifying the tsunami source immediately after an earthquake is the most critical component of tsunami early warning, as not every earthquake generates a tsunami. After a major under sea earthquake, it is very important to determine whether or not it has actually triggered the deadly wave. The near real-time observations from near field networks such as strong motion and Global Positioning System (GPS allows rapid determination of fault geometry. Here we present a complete processing chain of Indian Tsunami Early Warning System (ITEWS, starting from acquisition of geodetic raw data, processing, inversion and simulating the situation as it would be at warning center during any major earthquake. We determine the earthquake moment magnitude and generate the centroid moment tensor solution using a novel approach which are the key elements for tsunami early warning. Though the well established seismic monitoring network, numerical modeling and dissemination system are currently capable to provide tsunami warnings to most of the countries in and around the Indian Ocean, the study highlights the critical role of geodetic observations in determination of tsunami source for high-quality forecasting.

  15. Smartphone-Based Earthquake and Tsunami Early Warning in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, B. A.; Baez, J. C.; Ericksen, T.; Barrientos, S. E.; Minson, S. E.; Duncan, C.; Guillemot, C.; Smith, D.; Boese, M.; Cochran, E. S.; Murray, J. R.; Langbein, J. O.; Glennie, C. L.; Dueitt, J.; Parra, H.

    2016-12-01

    Many locations around the world face high seismic hazard, but do not have the resources required to establish traditional earthquake and tsunami warning systems (E/TEW) that utilize scientific grade seismological sensors. MEMs accelerometers and GPS chips embedded in, or added inexpensively to, smartphones are sensitive enough to provide robust E/TEW if they are deployed in sufficient numbers. We report on a pilot project in Chile, one of the most productive earthquake regions world-wide. There, magnitude 7.5+ earthquakes occurring roughly every 1.5 years and larger tsunamigenic events pose significant local and trans-Pacific hazard. The smartphone-based network described here is being deployed in parallel to the build-out of a scientific-grade network for E/TEW. Our sensor package comprises a smartphone with internal MEMS and an external GPS chipset that provides satellite-based augmented positioning and phase-smoothing. Each station is independent of local infrastructure, they are solar-powered and rely on cellular SIM cards for communications. An Android app performs initial onboard processing and transmits both accelerometer and GPS data to a server employing the FinDer-BEFORES algorithm to detect earthquakes, producing an acceleration-based line source model for smaller magnitude earthquakes or a joint seismic-geodetic finite-fault distributed slip model for sufficiently large magnitude earthquakes. Either source model provides accurate ground shaking forecasts, while distributed slip models for larger offshore earthquakes can be used to infer seafloor deformation for local tsunami warning. The network will comprise 50 stations by Sept. 2016 and 100 stations by Dec. 2016. Since Nov. 2015, batch processing has detected, located, and estimated the magnitude for Mw>5 earthquakes. Operational since June, 2016, we have successfully detected two earthquakes > M5 (M5.5, M5.1) that occurred within 100km of our network while producing zero false alarms.

  16. The Role of Kenya Meteorological Service in Weather Early Warning in Kenya

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zablon W. Shilenje

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Early warning in weather forecasting entails provision of timely and effective weather information that allows individuals, organisations, or communities exposed to likely weather hazards to take action that avoids or reduces their exposure to risks. Various sectors have developed different ways to mitigate the effects of climate anomalies. The study reviews the existing monitoring and response structures, and communications flow channels of weather data at different levels, focusing on the role of Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS. The methodology employed was literature review of various documents. The study argues that early warning and weather information communication are essential elements for effective governance of weather risks through a well-developed warning system. At the end, the study recommends strengthening the existing structures with respect to weather monitoring, processing, and dissemination of weather products to end users.

  17. Toward a cross-border early-warning system for Central Asia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jacek Stankiewicz

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Rapidly expanding urban areas in Central Asia are increasingly vulnerable to seismic risk; but at present, no earthquake early warning (EEW systems exist in the region despite their successful implementation in other earthquake-prone areas. Such systems aim to provide short (seconds to tens of seconds warnings of impending disaster, enabling the first risk mitigation and damage control steps to be taken. This study presents the feasibility of a large scale cross-border regional system for Central Asian countries. Genetic algorithms are used to design efficient EEW networks, computing optimal station locations and trigger thresholds in recorded ground acceleration. Installation of such systems within 3 years aims to both reducing the endemic lack of strong motion data in Central Asia that is limiting the possibility of improving seismic hazard assessment, and at providing the first regional earthquake early warning system in the area.

  18. A Novel Fault Early Warning Model Based on Fault Gene Table for Smart Distribution Grids

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Min Xiang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Since a smart distribution grid has a diversity of components and complicated topology; it is very hard to achieve fault early warning for each part. A fault early warning model for smart distribution grid combining a back propagation (BP neural network with a gene sequence alignment algorithm is proposed. Firstly; the operational state of smart distribution grid is divided into four states; and a BP neural network is adopted to explore the operational state from the historical fault data of the smart distribution grid. This obtains the relationship between each state transition time sequence and corresponding fault, and is used to construct the fault gene table. Then; a state transition time sequence is obtained online periodically, which is matched with each gene in fault gene table by an improved Smith–Waterman algorithm. If the maximum match score exceeds the given threshold, the relevant fault will be detected early. Finally, plenty of time domain simulation is performed on the proposed fault early warning model to IEEE-14 bus. The simulation results show that the proposed model can achieve efficient early fault warning of smart distribution grids.

  19. Role of MODIS Vegetation Phenology Products in the U.S. for Warn Early Warning System for Forest Threats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William; Norman, Steve; Gasser, Gerald; Smoot, James; Kuper, Philip

    2012-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx 751 million acres (approx 1/3 of total land). Several abiotic and biotic damage agents disturb, damage, kill, and/or threaten these forests. Regionally extensive forest disturbances can also threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work at finer scales. daily MODIS data provide a means to monitor regional forest disturbances on a weekly basis, leveraging vegetation phenology. In response, the USFS and NASA began collaborating in 2006 to develop a Near Real Time (NRT) forest monitoring capability, based on MODIS NDVI data, as part of a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS).

  20. REWSET: A prototype seismic and tsunami early warning system in Rhodes island, Greece

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papadopoulos, Gerasimos; Argyris, Ilias; Aggelou, Savvas; Karastathis, Vasilis

    2014-05-01

    Tsunami warning in near-field conditions is a critical issue in the Mediterranean Sea since the most important tsunami sources are situated within tsunami wave travel times starting from about five minutes. The project NEARTOWARN (2012-2013) supported by the EU-DG ECHO contributed substantially to the development of new tools for the near-field tsunami early warning in the Mediterranean. One of the main achievements is the development of a local warning system in the test-site of Rhodes island (Rhodes Early Warning System for Earthquakes and Tsunamis - REWSET). The system is composed by three main subsystems: (1) a network of eight seismic early warning devices installed in four different localities of the island, one in the civil protection, another in the Fire Brigade and another two in municipality buildings; (2) two radar-type (ultrasonic) tide-gauges installed in the eastern coastal zine of the island which was selected since research on the historical earthquake and tsunami activity has indicated that the most important, near-field tsunami sources are situated offshore to the east of Rhodes; (3) a crisis Geographic Management System (GMS), which is a web-based and GIS-based application incorporating a variety of thematic maps and other information types. The seismic early warning devices activate by strong (magnitude around 6 or more) earthquakes occurring at distances up to about 100 km from Rhodes, thus providing immediate mobilization of the civil protection. The tide-gauges transmit sea level data, while during the crisis the GMS supports decisions to be made by civil protection. In the near future it is planned the REWSET system to be integrated with national and international systems. REWSET is a prototype which certainly could be developed in other coastal areas of the Mediterranean and beyond.

  1. Modeling of dengue occurrences early warning involving temperature and rainfall factors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prama Setia Putra

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Objective: To understand dengue transmission process and its vector dynamics and to develop early warning model of dengue occurrences based on mosquito population and host-vector threshold values considering temperature and rainfall. Methods: To obtain the early warning model, mosquito population and host-vector models are developed initially. Both are developed using differential equations. Basic offspring number (R0m and basic reproductive ratio (R0d which are the threshold values are derived from the models under constant parameters assumption. Temperature and rainfall effects on mosquito and dengue are performed in entomological and disease transmission parameters. Some of parameters are set as functions of temperature or rainfall while other parameters are set to be constant. Hereafter, both threshold values are computed using those parameters. Monthly dengue occurrences data are categorized as zero and one values which one means the outbreak does occur in that month. Logistics regression is chosen to bridge the threshold values and categorized data. Threshold values are considered as the input of early warning model. Semarang city is selected as the sample to develop this early waning model. Results: The derived threshold values which are R 0 m and R 0 d show to have relation that mosquito as dengue vector affects transmission of the disease. Result of the early warning model will be a value between zero and one. It is categorized as outbreak does occur when the value is larger than 0.5 while other is categorized as outbreak does not occur. By using single predictor, the model can perform 68% accuracy approximately. Conclusions: The extinction of mosquitoes will be followed by disease disappearance while mosquitoes existence can lead to disease free or endemic states. Model simulations show that mosquito population are more affected by weather factors than human. Involving weather factors implicitly in the threshold value and linking them

  2. Early Warning System for reducing disaster risk: the technological platform DEWETRA for the Republic of Serbia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massabo, Marco; Molini, Luca; Kostic, Bojan; Campanella, Paolo; Stevanovic, Slavimir

    2015-04-01

    Disaster risk reduction has long been recognized for its role in mitigating the negative environmental, social and economic impacts of natural hazards. Flood Early Warning System is a disaster risk reduction measure based on the capacities of institutions to observe and predict extreme hydro-meteorological events and to disseminate timely and meaningful warning information; it is furthermore based on the capacities of individuals, communities and organizations to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss. An operational definition of an Early Warning System has been suggested by ISDR - UN Office for DRR [15 January 2009]: "EWS is the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.". ISDR continues by commenting that a people-centered early warning system necessarily comprises four key elements: 1-knowledge of the risks; 2-monitoring, analysis and forecasting of the hazards; 3-communication or dissemination of alerts and warnings; and 4- local capabilities to respond to the warnings received." The technological platform DEWETRA supports the strengthening of the first three key elements of EWS suggested by ISDR definition, hence to improve the capacities to build real-time risk scenarios and to inform and warn the population in advance The technological platform DEWETRA has been implemented for the Republic of Serbia. DEWETRA is a real time-integrate system that supports decision makers for risk forecasting and monitoring and for distributing warnings to end-user and to the general public. The system is based on the rapid availability of different data that helps to establish up-to-date and reliable risk scenarios. The integration of all relevant data for risk management significantly

  3. Design of a reliable and operational landslide early warning system at regional scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calvello, Michele; Piciullo, Luca; Gariano, Stefano Luigi; Melillo, Massimo; Brunetti, Maria Teresa; Peruccacci, Silvia; Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    Landslide early warning systems at regional scale are used to warn authorities, civil protection personnel and the population about the occurrence of rainfall-induced landslides over wide areas, typically through the prediction and measurement of meteorological variables. A warning model for these systems must include a regional correlation law and a decision algorithm. A regional correlation law can be defined as a functional relationship between rainfall and landslides; it is typically based on thresholds of rainfall indicators (e.g., cumulated rainfall, rainfall duration) related to different exceedance probabilities of landslide occurrence. A decision algorithm can be defined as a set of assumptions and procedures linking rainfall thresholds to warning levels. The design and the employment of an operational and reliable early warning system for rainfall-induced landslides at regional scale depend on the identification of a reliable correlation law as well as on the definition of a suitable decision algorithm. Herein, a five-step process chain addressing both issues and based on rainfall thresholds is proposed; the procedure is tested in a landslide-prone area of the Campania region in southern Italy. To this purpose, a database of 96 shallow landslides triggered by rainfall in the period 2003-2010 and rainfall data gathered from 58 rain gauges are used. First, a set of rainfall thresholds are defined applying a frequentist method to reconstructed rainfall conditions triggering landslides in the test area. In the second step, several thresholds at different exceedance probabilities are evaluated, and different percentile combinations are selected for the activation of three warning levels. Subsequently, within steps three and four, the issuing of warning levels is based on the comparison, over time and for each combination, between the measured rainfall and the pre-defined warning level thresholds. Finally, the optimal percentile combination to be employed in

  4. Network based early warning indicators of vegetation changes in a land-atmosphere model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Yin, Z.; Dekker, S.C.; van den Hurk, B.J.J.M.; Dijkstra, H.A.

    2016-01-01

    Numerous model studies demonstrate that ecosystems might not shift smoothly with a gradual change in resource concentration. At specific points, vegetation can suddenly shift from one stable state to another. To predict such undesirable shifts, statistical indicators are proposed for early warning

  5. Early Warning System for Disasters within Health Organizations: A Mandatory System for Developing Countries

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rouhollah Zaboli

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Background: Disaster identification and alert systems can be processed in different ways. An early warning system is designed to detect impending danger and send appropriate and clear signals to at risk communities and organizations at the right time and in an unambiguous way. This study aimed to determine early warning system for disaster within health organization in Iran. Methods: This article presents the findings of a mixed-methods study of early warning systems for disaster management within the health organizations in Iran. During the years 2011 to 2012, a sample of 230 health managers was surveyed using a questionnaire and 65 semi-structured interviews were conducted with public health and therapeutic affairs managers who were responsible for disaster management. Results: A range of problems were identified. Although there is a multiagency alert system within the health organizations, other indicators of early warning system are not satisfactory. Furthermore, standard messages which are used to alert organizations are not used under the current system. Conclusion: Some activities such as memorandum of understanding among different stakeholders of disaster response and education of staff and communities could improve the response to disasters within the health organizations.

  6. An evaluation of the Triage Early Warning Score in an urban ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objective: Triage is an essential first step in the efficient and effective running of any emergency department. A good triage tool saves lives and reduces mortality. The Triage Early Warning Score (TEWS) is a useful tool used to identify patients in emergency departments who are at risk of deterioration and who may require ...

  7. Geospatiotemporal data mining in an early warning system for forest threats in the United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    F.M. Hoffman; R.T. Mills; J. Kumar; S.S. Vulli; W.W. Hargrove

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250 m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster...

  8. An evaluation of the Triage Early Warning Score in an urban ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2013-12-03

    Dec 3, 2013 ... Original Research: An evaluation of the Triage Early Warning Score in an urban accident and emergency department. 69. Vol 56 No 1. S Afr Fam Pract 2014. Introduction. Traditionally, clinicians are well trained in history taking and physical examinations which are used to make a diagnosis. Protocols in ...

  9. Developing a drought early warning information system for coastal ecosystems in the Carolinas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirsten Lackstrom; Amanda Brennan; Paul Conrads; Lisa Darby; Kirstin Dow; Daniel Tuford

    2016-01-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) and the Carolinas Integrated Sciences and Assessments (CISA), a National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA)- funded Regional Integrated Sciences and Assessments (RISA) program, are partnering to develop and support a Carolinas Drought Early Warning System pilot program. Research and projects focus on...

  10. A Cardiac Early Warning System with Multi Channel SCG and ECG Monitoring for Mobile Health

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Prasan Kumar Sahoo

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Use of information and communication technology such as smart phone, smart watch, smart glass and portable health monitoring devices for healthcare services has made Mobile Health (mHealth an emerging research area. Coronary Heart Disease (CHD is considered as a leading cause of death world wide and an increasing number of people die prematurely due to CHD. Under such circumstances, there is a growing demand for a reliable cardiac monitoring system to catch the intermittent abnormalities and detect critical cardiac behaviors which lead to sudden death. Use of mobile devices to collect Electrocardiography (ECG, Seismocardiography (SCG data and efficient analysis of those data can monitor a patient’s cardiac activities for early warning. This paper presents a novel cardiac data acquisition method and combined analysis of Electrocardiography (ECG and multi channel Seismocardiography (SCG data. An early warning system is implemented to monitor the cardiac activities of a person and accuracy assessment of the early warning system is conducted for the ECG data only. The assessment shows 88% accuracy and effectiveness of our proposed analysis, which implies the viability and applicability of the proposed early warning system.

  11. Early warning of snow-caused disasters in pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W. Wang

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available This study develops a model for early warning of snow-caused livestock disasters on a county basis and proposes a method of qualitative risk assessment of snow disasters at 500 m resolution for pastoral areas on the Tibetan Plateau (TP. Data used for the model development include remote sensing data, statistical data of weather, livestock, and social economy, and 45 typical snow disaster cases from 2000 to 2010. The principal component analysis (PCA approach is used to choose 7 crucial factors that contribute over 85% of information for early warning snow disasters on the TP. They are mean annual probability of snow disaster, number of snow-covered days, livestock stocking rate, continual days of mean daily temperature below −10 °C, grassland burial index, rate of snow-covered grassland, and per livestock gross domestic product. The chosen 411 cases from 2008 to 2010 are used to validate the prediction results from the developed early warning model, with an overall accuracy of 85.64% in predicting snow disasters and no disasters. This suggests that the early warning approach developed in the study has operational potential for predicting snow disasters on the TP.

  12. The UrbanFlood common information space for early warning systems

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Balis, B.; Kasztelnik, M.; Bubak, M.; Bartynski, T.; Gubala, T.; Nowakowski, P.; Broekhuijsen, B.J.

    2011-01-01

    Early Warning Systems (EWS) can play a crucial role in mitigating the effects of natural disasters. Modern EWSs leverage wireless sensors for real-time monitoring of natural phenomena and computing-intensive scientific applications for scenario-based prediction and analysis of sensor data. This

  13. Accuracy of an expanded early warning score for patients in general and trauma surgery wards

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    T. Smith (Tim); D. den Hartog (Dennis); T. Moerman (Tineke); P. Patka (Peter); E.M.M. van Lieshout (Esther); N.W.L. Schep (Niels)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: Early warning scores (EWS) may aid the prediction of major adverse events in hospitalized patients. Recently, an expanded EWS was introduced in the Netherlands. The aim of this study was to assess the relationship between this EWS and the occurrence of major adverse clinical

  14. Are early warning scores the only way to rapidly detect and manage deterioration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odell, Mandy

    A systematic literature review recently highlighted the complexity of nursing practice in terms of detecting and managing deteriorating ward patients (Odell et al, 2009). The findings suggest that rapid response systems, including early warning scores, may not be the only solution to the problems of detecting and managing signs of deterioration. This article summarises the findings of this review.

  15. Validity of different pediatric early warning scores in the emergency department

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    N. Seiger (Nienke); I.K. MacOnochie (Ian); R. Oostenbrink (Rianne); H.A. Moll (Henriëtte)

    2013-01-01

    textabstractObjective: Pediatric early warning scores (PEWS) are being advocated for use in the emergency department (ED). The goal of this study was to compare the validity of different PEWS in a pediatric ED. Methods: Ten different PEWS were evaluated in a large prospective cohort. We included

  16. A single-centre observational cohort study of admission National Early Warning Score (NEWS).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Tom E F; Vaid, Nidhi; Ip, Dorothy; Cron, Nicholas; Wells, Matt; Torrance, Hew D T; Emmanuel, Julian

    2015-07-01

    Early warning scores are commonly used in hospitals to identify patients at risk of deterioration. The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) has recently been introduced to UK practice. However, it is not yet widely implemented. We aimed to compare NEWS to the early warning score currently used in our hospital--the Patient at Risk Score (PARS). We conducted a prospective observational cohort study of all adult general medical patients admitted to a single hospital over a 20-day period. Physiological data and early warning scores recorded in bedside charts were collected on admission and a NEWS score was retrospectively calculated. The patient notes were reviewed at 48 h after admission. The primary outcome was a composite of critical care admission or death within 2 days of admission. The secondary outcome was hospital length of stay. NEWS was more strongly associated with the primary outcome than PARS (odds ratio 1.54, p score was correlated with hospital length of stay. NEWS on admission is superior to PARS for identifying patients at risk of death or critical care admission within the first 2 days of hospital stay. Current guidelines advocate a threshold of 5 for triggering a clinical review. However, since a score of 3 or more was associated with a poor outcome, this recommendation should be reviewed. Both scores were poor predictors of hospital length of stay. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  17. 77 FR 55605 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-09-10

    ... certain provisions of the early warning reporting (EWR) rule and the regulations governing motor vehicle and equipment safety recalls. The amendments to the EWR rule would require light vehicle manufacturers... FURTHER INFORMATION CONTACT: For non-legal issues on EWR requirements, contact Tina Morgan, Office of...

  18. 78 FR 51381 - Early Warning Reporting, Foreign Defect Reporting, and Motor Vehicle and Equipment Recall...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-20

    ... amendments to certain provisions of the early warning reporting (EWR) rule and the regulations governing motor vehicle and equipment safety recalls. The amendments to the EWR rule require light vehicle... vehicle manufacturers to segregate their Service Brake EWR data into two new discrete component categories...

  19. 78 FR 48863 - Agency Information Collection Activities; Comment Request; Evaluation of the Early Warning and...

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-08-12

    ... warning systems by states, districts and schools to date there have been no rigorous studies testing the... study is a two-year randomized controlled trial (RCT) to examine the impact of implementing an early... members of the REL Midwest's Ohio Dropout Prevention Alliance for clear information about the efficacy of...

  20. A threshold-based earthquake early warning using dense accelerometer networks

    OpenAIRE

    Zollo, Aldo; Amoroso, Ortensia; Lancieri, Maria; Wu, Yih-min; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2010-01-01

    Most earthquake early warning systems (EEWS) developed so far are conceived as either ‘regional’ (network-based) or ‘on-site’ (stand-alone) systems. The recent implementation of nationwide, high dynamic range, dense accelerometer arrays makes now available, potentially in real time, unsaturated waveforms of moderate-to-large magnitude earthquakes recorded at very short epicentral distances (

  1. End points for validating early warning scores in the context of rapid response systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, N. E.; Oestergaard, D.; Lippert, A.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: When investigating early warning scores and similar physiology-based risk stratification tools, death, cardiac arrest and intensive care unit admission are traditionally used as end points. A large proportion of the patients identified by these end points cannot be saved, even with ...

  2. Early warning of illegal development for protected areas by integrating cellular automata with neural networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xia; Lao, Chunhua; Liu, Yilun; Liu, Xiaoping; Chen, Yimin; Li, Shaoying; Ai, Bing; He, Zijian

    2013-11-30

    Ecological security has become a major issue under fast urbanization in China. As the first two cities in this country, Shenzhen and Dongguan issued the ordinance of Eco-designated Line of Control (ELC) to "wire" ecologically important areas for strict protection in 2005 and 2009 respectively. Early warning systems (EWS) are a useful tool for assisting the implementation ELC. In this study, a multi-model approach is proposed for the early warning of illegal development by integrating cellular automata (CA) and artificial neural networks (ANN). The objective is to prevent the ecological risks or catastrophe caused by such development at an early stage. The integrated model is calibrated by using the empirical information from both remote sensing and handheld GPS (global positioning systems). The MAR indicator which is the ratio of missing alarms to all the warnings is proposed for better assessment of the model performance. It is found that the fast urban development has caused significant threats to natural-area protection in the study area. The integration of CA, ANN and GPS provides a powerful tool for describing and predicting illegal development which is in highly non-linear and fragmented forms. The comparison shows that this multi-model approach has much better performances than the single-model approach for the early warning. Compared with the single models of CA and ANN, this integrated multi-model can improve the value of MAR by 65.48% and 5.17% respectively. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Transfusion-associated circulatory overload in adult, medical emergency patients with perspectives on early warning practice

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gosmann, Fanny; Nørgaard, Astrid; Rasmussen, Maj-Britt

    2017-01-01

    to the haemovigilance system. The clinical implications are discussed within the frame of the Early Warning Score. METHODS: We conducted a retrospective audit of electronic hospital medical records of patients receiving blood transfusion in a single medical emergency unit. Patients were admitted during a 6-month period...

  4. Majalaya Flood Early Warning System: A Community Based Approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Junnaedhi, I. Dewa Gede A.; Riawan, Edi; Suwarman, Rusmawan; Wahyu Hadi, Tri; Lubis, Atika; Joko Trilaksono, Nurjanna; Rahayu, Rahmawati; Kombara, PrawiraYudha; Waskito, Riki; Ekalaya Oktora, Hendra; Supriatna, Rahmat; Anugrah, Aan; Haq Mudzakkir, Abdul; Setiawan, Wawar

    2017-06-01

    Majalaya, a small city to the south-east of Bandung, was hit by flood almost every year. From January to June 2016, up to 5 severe floods and 4 moderate floods have hit this city. Although it usually not last for long, but the flood stream could be very rapid, thus have a high potential to bring damage to the city. Starting from 2012, ITB through Weather and Climate Prediction Laboratory (WCPL) has support Garda Caah (flood watcher society in Majalaya) with weather prediction system. In the late 2015, ITB also enhancing Garda Caah observation system by installing several Automatic Weather Station (AWS) and Automatic Water Level Recorder (AWLR) throughout Majalaya upstream area. The instruments itself was supported by a re-insurance company MAIPARK and some was built in house by WCPL. The collaboration between ITB, Garda Caah, and Majalaya citizens has been proved to be mutually beneficial. Garda Caah could get more accurate and faster observation and enhanced knowledge, thus could provide a better flood warning for Majalaya citizens. On the other hand, ITB could get data from observation network, with more efficient way to maintain observation instruments as it done by Garda Caah and other Majalaya citizens.

  5. Coronal Mass Ejection early-warning mission by solar-photon sailcraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vulpetti, Giovanni; Circi, Christian; Pino, Tommaso

    2017-11-01

    A preliminary investigation of the early warning of solar storms caused by Coronal Mass Ejection has been carried out. A long warning time could be obtained with a sailcraft synchronous with the Earth-Moon barycenter, and stationed well below the L1 point. In this paper, the theory of heliocentric synchronous sailcraft is set up, its perturbed orbit is analyzed, and a potential solution capable of providing an annual synchrony is carried out. A simple analysis of the response from a low-mass electrochromic actuator for the realization of station-keeping attitude maneuvers is put forwards, and an example of propellantless re-orientation maneuver is studied.

  6. An Early Warning System for Identification and Monitoring of Disturbances to Forest Ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marshall, A. A.; Hoffman, F. M.; Kumar, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Spruce, J.; Mills, R. T.

    2011-12-01

    Forest ecosystems are susceptible to damage due to threat events like wildfires, insect and disease attacks, extreme weather events, land use change, and long-term climate change. Early identification of such events is desired to devise and implement a protective response. The mission of the USDA Forest Service is to sustain the health, diversity, and productivity of the nation's forests. However, limited resources for aerial surveys and ground-based inspections are insufficient for monitoring the large areas covered by the U.S. forests. The USDA Forest Service, Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and NASA Stennis Space Center are developing an early warning system for the continuous tracking and long-term monitoring of disturbances and responses in forest ecosystems using high resolution satellite remote sensing data. Geospatiotemporal data mining techniques were developed and applied to normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI) products derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) MOD 13 data at 250 m resolution on eight day intervals. Representative phenologically similar regions, or phenoregions, were developed for the conterminous United States (CONUS) by applying a k-means clustering algorithm to the NDVI data spanning the full eight years of the MODIS record. Annual changes in the phenoregions were quantitatively analyzed to identify the significant changes in phenological behavior. This methodology was successfully applied for identification of various forest disturbance events, including wildfire, tree mortality due to Mountain Pine Beetle, and other insect infestation and diseases, as well as extreme events like storms and hurricanes in the United States. Where possible, the results were validated and quantitatively compared with aerial and ground-based survey data available from different agencies. This system was able to identify most of the disturbances reported by aerial and ground-based surveys, and it also identified

  7. Concept study of radar sensors for near-field tsunami early warning

    OpenAIRE

    Börner, T.; Galletti, M.; Marquart, N. P.; Krieger, G.

    2010-01-01

    Off-shore detection of tsunami waves is a critical component of an effective tsunami early warning system (TEWS). Even more critical is the off-shore detection of local tsunamis, namely tsunamis that strike coastal areas within minutes after generation. In this paper we propose new concepts for near-field tsunami early detection, based on innovative and up-to-date microwave remote sensing techniques. We particularly introduce the NESTRAD (NEar-Space Tsunami RADar) concept, which consists of a...

  8. Design of flood early warning system with wifi network based on smartphone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Supani, Ahyar; Andriani, Yuli; Taqwa, Ahmad

    2017-11-01

    Today, the development using internet of things enables activities surrounding us to be monitored, controlled, predicted and calculated remotely through connections to the internet network such as monitoring activities of long-distance flood warning with information technology. Applying an information technology in the field of flood early warning has been developed in the world, either connected to internet network or not. The internet network that has been done in this paper is the design of WiFi network to access data of rainfall, water level and flood status at any time with a smartphone coming from flood early warning system. The results obtained when test of data accessing with smartphone are in form of rainfall and water level graphs against time and flood status indicators consisting of 3 flood states: Standby 2, Standby 1 and Flood. It is concluded that data are from flood early warning system has been able to accessed and displayed on smartphone via WiFi network in any time and real time.

  9. Availability and Reliability of Disaster Early Warning Systems and the IT Infrastructure Library

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wächter, J.; Loewe, P.

    2012-12-01

    The Boxing Day Tsunami of 2004 caused an information catastrophy. Crucial early warning information could not be delivered to the communities under imminent threat, resulting in over 240,000 casualties in 14 countries. This tragedy sparked the development of a new generation of integrated modular Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS). While significant advances were accomplished in the past years, recent events, like the Chile 2010 and the Tohoku 2011 tsunami demonstrate that the key technical challenge for Tsunami Early Warning research on the supranational scale still lies in the timely issuing of status information and reliable early warning messages. A key challenge stems from the main objective of the IOC Tsunami Programme, the integration of national TEWS towards ocean-wide networks: Each of the increasing number of integrated Tsunami Early Warning Centres has to cope with the continuing evolution of sensors, hardware and software while having to maintain reliable inter-center information exchange services. To avoid future information catastrophes, the performance of all components, ranging from sensors to Warning Centers, has to be regularly validated against defined criteria. This task is complicated by the fact that in term of ICT system life cycles tsunami are very rare event resulting in very difficult framing conditions to safeguard the availability and reliability of TWS. Since 2004, GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ) has built up expertise in the field of TEWS. Within GFZ, the Centre for GeoInformation Technology (CEGIT) has focused its work on the geoinformatics aspects of TEWS in two projects already: The German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) funded by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) and the Distant Early Warning System (DEWS), a European project funded under the sixth Framework Programme (FP6). These developments are continued in the TRIDEC project (Collaborative, Complex, and Critical

  10. Study of Water Pollution Early Warning Framework Based on Internet of Things

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chengfang, H.; Xiao, X.; Dingtao, S.; Bo, C.; Xiongfei, W.

    2016-06-01

    In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  11. STUDY OF WATER POLLUTION EARLY WARNING FRAMEWORK BASED ON INTERNET OF THINGS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Chengfang

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, with the increasing world environmental pollution happening, sudden water pollution incident has become more and more frequently in China. It has posed a serious threat to water safety of the people living in the water source area. Conventional water pollution monitoring method is manual periodic testing, it maybe miss the best time to find that pollution incident. This paper proposes a water pollution warning framework to change this state. On the basis of the Internet of things, we uses automatic water quality monitoring technology to realize monitoring. We calculate the monitoring data with water pollution model to judge whether the water pollution incident is happen or not. Water pollution warning framework is divided into three layers: terminal as the sensing layer, it with the deployment of the automatic water quality pollution monitoring sensor. The middle layer is the transfer network layer, data information implementation is based on GPRS wireless network transmission. The upper one is the application layer. With these application systems, early warning information of water pollution will realize the high-speed transmission between grassroots units and superior units. The paper finally gives an example that applying this pollution warning framework to water quality monitoring of Beijing, China, it greatly improves the speed of the pollution warning responding of Beijing.

  12. Assessment of early warning system performance and improvements since it is in operational phase in Romania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Marmureanu, Gheorghe; Ortansa Cioflan, Carmen

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake represents a major natural disaster for Romanian territory. The main goal following the occurrence of a strong earthquake is to minimize the total number of fatalities. A rapid early warning system (REWS) was developed in Romania in order to provide 25-35 seconds warning time to Bucharest facilities for the earthquakes with M>5.0. The system consists of four components: a network of strong motion sensors installed in the epicentral area, a redundant communication network, an automatic analyzing system located in the Romanian Data Centre and an alert distribution system. The detection algorithm is based on the magnitude computation using strong motion data and rapid evaluation and scaling relation between the maximum P-wave acceleration measured in the epicentral area and the higher ground motion amplitude recorded in Bucharest. In order to reduce the damages caused by earthquakes, the exploitation of the up to date technology is very important. The information is the key point in the disaster management, and the internet is one of the most used instrument, implying also low costs. The Rapid Early Warning System was expanded to cover all countries affected by major earthquakes originating in the Vrancea seismic area and reduce their impact on existing installations of national interest in neighbouring Romania and elsewhere. REWS provides an efficient instrument for prevention and reaction based on the integrated system for seismic detection in South-Eastern Europe. REWS has been operational since 2013 and sends alert the authorities, hazardous facilities in Romania and Bulgaria (NPP, emergency response agencies etc.) and to public via twitter and some smartphone applications developed in the house. Also, NIEP is part of the UNESCO initiative case on developing a platform on earthquake early warning systems (IP-MEP) that aims to promote and strengthen the development of earthquake early warning systems in earthquake-prone regions of the world by sharing

  13. Measuring the modified early warning score and the Rothman index: advantages of utilizing the electronic medical record in an early warning system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Finlay, G Duncan; Rothman, Michael J; Smith, Robert A

    2014-02-01

    Early detection of an impending cardiac or pulmonary arrest is an important focus for hospitals trying to improve quality of care. Unfortunately, all current early warning systems suffer from high false-alarm rates. Most systems are based on the Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS); 4 of its 5 inputs are vital signs. The purpose of this study was to compare the accuracy of MEWS against the Rothman Index (RI), a patient acuity score based upon summation of excess risk functions that utilize additional data from the electronic medical record (EMR). MEWS and RI scores were computed retrospectively for 32,472 patient visits. Nursing assessments, a category of EMR inputs only used by the RI, showed sharp differences 24 hours before death. Receiver operating characteristic curves for 24-hour mortality demonstrated superior RI performance with c-statistics, 0.82 and 0.93, respectively. At the point where MEWS triggers an alarm, we identified the RI point corresponding to equal sensitivity and found the positive likelihood ratio (LR+) for MEWS was 7.8, and for the RI was 16.9 with false alarms reduced by 53%. At the RI point corresponding to equal LR+, the sensitivity for MEWS was 49% and 77% for RI, capturing 54% more of those patients who will die within 24 hours. Published 2013. The Authors Journal of Hospital Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of Society of Hospital Medicine.

  14. Early warning scores: a sign of deterioration in patients and systems

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Fox, A

    2015-02-01

    The early warning score is a decision-making tool that has a simple design, yet its implementation in healthcare organisations is proving complex. This article reports the results of a survey that evaluated the nurses’ experiences of using the NEWS (National Early Warning Score) in an acute hospital in Ireland. Staff reported that the NEWS was easy to use, did not increase workload and enhanced their ability to identify deteriorating patients. However, they also identified problems related to doctors’ delayed response times, doctors lack of training in the use of the tool, and a failure by doctors to modify parameters for patients with chronic conditions. NEWS enhances nurses’ role in early detection of patient deterioration but delays in response times by doctors, exposes systematic flaws in healthcare. This suggests that it is not only an indicator of patient deterioration but also of deteriorating healthcare systems.

  15. Early warning scores: a sign of deterioration in patients and systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Adrian; Elliott, Naomi

    2015-04-01

    The early warning score system is a decision-making tool that has a simple design, yet its implementation in healthcare organisations is proving complex. This article reports the results of a survey that evaluated nurses' experiences of using the National Early Warning Score (NEWS) in an acute hospital in Ireland. Staff reported that the NEWS was easy to use, did not increase workload and enhanced their ability to identify deteriorating patients. However, they also identified problems related to doctors' delayed response times, doctors' lack of training in the use of the tool, and a failure by doctors to modify trigger parameters for patients with chronic conditions. NEWS enhances nurses' roles in early detection of patient deterioration, but delays in response times by doctors expose systematic flaws in health care. This suggests that it is not only an indicator of patient deterioration, but also of deteriorating healthcare systems.

  16. Food Security, Decision Making and the Use of Remote Sensing in Famine Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.

    2008-01-01

    Famine early warning systems use remote sensing in combination with socio-economic and household food economy analysis to provide timely and rigorous information on emerging food security crises. The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) is the US Agency for International Development's decision support system in 20 African countries, as well as in Guatemala, Haiti and Afghanistan. FEWS NET provides early and actionable policy guidance for the US Government and its humanitarian aid partners. As we move into an era of climate change where weather hazards will become more frequent and severe, understanding how to provide quantitative and actionable scientific information for policy makers using biophysical data is critical for an appropriate and effective response.

  17. Performance Analysis of a Citywide Real-time Landslide Early Warning System in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Joon-Young; Lee, Seung-Rae; Kang, Sinhang; Lee, Deuk-hwan; Nedumpallile Vasu, Nikhil

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-induced landslide has been one of the major disasters in Korea since the beginning of 21st century when the global climate change started to give rise to the growth of the magnitude and frequency of extreme precipitation events. In order to mitigate the increasing damage to properties and loss of lives and to provide an effective tool for public officials to manage the landslide disasters, a real-time landslide early warning system with an advanced concept has been developed by taking into account for Busan, the second largest metropolitan city in Korea, as an operational test-bed. The system provides with warning information based on a five-level alert scheme (Normal, Attention, Watch, Alert, and Emergency) using the forecasted/observed rainfall data or the data obtained from ground monitoring (volumetric water content and matric suction). The alert levels are determined by applying seven different thresholds in a step-wise manner following a decision tree. In the pursuit of improved reliability of an early warning level assigned to a specific area, the system makes assessments repetitively using the thresholds of different theoretical backgrounds including statistical(empirical), physically-based, and mathematical analyses as well as direct measurement-based approaches. By mapping the distribution of the five early warning levels determined independently for each of tens of millions grids covering the entire mountainous area of Busan, the regional-scale system can also provide with the early warning information for a specific local area. The fact that the highest warning level is determined by using a concept of a numerically-modelled potential debris-flow risk is another distinctive feature of the system. This study tested the system performance by applying it for four previous rainy seasons in order to validate the operational applicability. During the rainy seasons of 2009, 2011, and 2014, the number of landslides recorded throughout Busan's territory

  18. An Envelope Based Feedback Control System for Earthquake Early Warning: Reality Check Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heaton, T. H.; Karakus, G.; Beck, J. L.

    2016-12-01

    Earthquake early warning systems are, in general, designed to be open loop control systems in such a way that the output, i.e., the warning messages, only depend on the input, i.e., recorded ground motions, up to the moment when the message is issued in real-time. We propose an algorithm, which is called Reality Check Algorithm (RCA), which would assess the accuracy of issued warning messages, and then feed the outcome of the assessment back into the system. Then, the system would modify its messages if necessary. That is, we are proposing to convert earthquake early warning systems into feedback control systems by integrating them with RCA. RCA works by continuously monitoring and comparing the observed ground motions' envelopes to the predicted envelopes of Virtual Seismologist (Cua 2005). Accuracy of magnitude and location (both spatial and temporal) estimations of the system are assessed separately by probabilistic classification models, which are trained by a Sparse Bayesian Learning technique called Automatic Relevance Determination prior.

  19. Near-field tsunami early warning and emergency planning in the Mediterranean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gerassimos A. Papadopoulos

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available The new European project Near-field Tsunami Early Warning and Emergency Planning in the Mediterranean Sea (NEARTOWARN faces the need to develop operational tsunami early warning systems in near-field (local conditions where the travel time of the first tsunami wave is very short, that is less than 30 min, which is a typical case in the North East Atlantic and the Mediterranean Sea region but also elsewhere around the globe. The operational condition that should be fulfilled is that the time of tsunami detection, plus the time of warning transmitting, plus the time of evacuation should not exceed the travel time of the first tsunami wave from its source to the closest evacuation zone. To this goal the time to detect of the causative earthquake should be compressed at the very minimum. In this context the core of the proposed system is a network of seismic early warning devices, which activate and send alert in a few seconds after the generation of a near-field earthquake, when a seismic ground motion exceeding a prescribed threshold is detected. Then civil protection mobilizes to manage the earthquake crisis but also to detect and manage a possible tsunami through a geographical risk management system. For the tsunami detection the system is supported by tide-gauges of radar type, a database of presimulated tsunami scenarios, and a local tsunami decision matrix. The island of Rhodes in the eastern termination of the Hellenic Arc and Trench has been selected for a pilot and operational development of the local tsunami warning system given that the island is a highly popular tourist destination, historically it was hit by large tsunamigenic earthquakes and was recently the master test-site for the pan-European FP6 tsunami research project Tsunami Risk ANd Strategies For the European Region (TRANSFER.

  20. Development of Smart Grid for Community and Cyber based Landslide Hazard Monitoring and Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karnawati, D.; Wilopo, W.; Fathani, T. F.; Fukuoka, H.; Andayani, B.

    2012-12-01

    A Smart Grid is a cyber-based tool to facilitate a network of sensors for monitoring and communicating the landslide hazard and providing the early warning. The sensor is designed as an electronic sensor installed in the existing monitoring and early warning instruments, and also as the human sensors which comprise selected committed-people at the local community, such as the local surveyor, local observer, member of the local task force for disaster risk reduction, and any person at the local community who has been registered to dedicate their commitments for sending reports related to the landslide symptoms observed at their living environment. This tool is designed to be capable to receive up to thousands of reports/information at the same time through the electronic sensors, text message (mobile phone), the on-line participatory web as well as various social media such as Twitter and Face book. The information that should be recorded/ reported by the sensors is related to the parameters of landslide symptoms, for example the progress of cracks occurrence, ground subsidence or ground deformation. Within 10 minutes, this tool will be able to automatically elaborate and analyse the reported symptoms to predict the landslide hazard and risk levels. The predicted level of hazard/ risk can be sent back to the network of electronic and human sensors as the early warning information. The key parameters indicating the symptoms of landslide hazard were recorded/ monitored by the electrical and the human sensors. Those parameters were identified based on the investigation on geological and geotechnical conditions, supported with the laboratory analysis. The cause and triggering mechanism of landslide in the study area was also analysed in order to define the critical condition to launch the early warning. However, not only the technical but also social system were developed to raise community awareness and commitments to serve the mission as the human sensors, which will

  1. DISTANT EARLY WARNING SYSTEM for Tsunamis - A wide-area and multi-hazard approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Lendholt, Matthias; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the objective to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems based on an open sensor platform. This platform integrates OGC [2] SWE [3] compliant sensor systems for the rapid detection of hazardous events, like earthquakes, sea level anomalies, ocean floor occurrences, and ground displacements in the case of tsunami early warning. Based on the upstream information flow DEWS focuses on the improvement of downstream capacities of warning centres especially by improving information logistics for effective and targeted warning message aggregation for a multilingual environment. Multiple telecommunication channels will be used for the dissemination of warning messages. Wherever possible, existing standards have been integrated. The Command and Control User Interface (CCUI), a rich client application based on Eclipse RCP (Rich Client Platform) [4] and the open source GIS uDig [5], integrates various OGC services. Using WMS (Web Map Service) [6] and WFS (Web Feature Service) [7] spatial data are utilized to depict the situation picture and to integrate a simulation system via WPS (Web Processing Service) [8] to identify affected areas. Warning messages are compiled and transmitted in the OASIS [9] CAP (Common Alerting Protocol) [10] standard together with addressing information defined via EDXL-DE (Emergency Data Exchange Language - Distribution Element) [11]. Internal interfaces are realized with SOAP [12] web services. Based on results of GITEWS [13] - in particular the GITEWS Tsunami Service Bus [14] - the DEWS approach provides an implementation for tsunami early warning systems but other geological paradigms are going to follow, e.g. volcanic eruptions or landslides. Therefore in future also multi-hazard functionality is conceivable. The specific software architecture of DEWS makes it possible to dock varying sensors to the

  2. Safety Early Warning Research for Highway Construction Based on Case-Based Reasoning and Variable Fuzzy Sets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yan Liu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available As a high-risk subindustry involved in construction projects, highway construction safety has experienced major developments in the past 20 years, mainly due to the lack of safe early warnings in Chinese construction projects. By combining the current state of early warning technology with the requirements of the State Administration of Work Safety and using case-based reasoning (CBR, this paper expounds on the concept and flow of highway construction safety early warnings based on CBR. The present study provides solutions to three key issues, index selection, accident cause association analysis, and warning degree forecasting implementation, through the use of association rule mining, support vector machine classifiers, and variable fuzzy qualitative and quantitative change criterion modes, which fully cover the needs of safe early warning systems. Using a detailed description of the principles and advantages of each method and by proving the methods’ effectiveness and ability to act together in safe early warning applications, effective means and intelligent technology for a safe highway construction early warning system are established.

  3. Famine Early Warning Systems and Their Use of Satellite Remote Sensing Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, Molly E.; Essam, Timothy; Leonard, Kenneth

    2011-01-01

    Famine early warning organizations have experience that has much to contribute to efforts to incorporate climate and weather information into economic and political systems. Food security crises are now caused almost exclusively by problems of food access, not absolute food availability, but the role of monitoring agricultural production both locally and globally remains central. The price of food important to the understanding of food security in any region, but it needs to be understood in the context of local production. Thus remote sensing is still at the center of much food security analysis, along with an examination of markets, trade and economic policies during food security analyses. Technology including satellite remote sensing, earth science models, databases of food production and yield, and modem telecommunication systems contributed to improved food production information. Here we present an econometric approach focused on bringing together satellite remote sensing and market analysis into food security assessment in the context of early warning.

  4. A holistic approach to SIM platform and its application to early-warning satellite system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Fuyu; Zhou, Jianping; Xu, Zheyao

    2018-01-01

    This study proposes a new simulation platform named Simulation Integrated Management (SIM) for the analysis of parallel and distributed systems. The platform eases the process of designing and testing both applications and architectures. The main characteristics of SIM are flexibility, scalability, and expandability. To improve the efficiency of project development, new models of early-warning satellite system were designed based on the SIM platform. Finally, through a series of experiments, the correctness of SIM platform and the aforementioned early-warning satellite models was validated, and the systematical analyses for the orbital determination precision of the ballistic missile during its entire flight process were presented, as well as the deviation of the launch/landing point. Furthermore, the causes of deviation and prevention methods will be fully explained. The simulation platform and the models will lay the foundations for further validations of autonomy technology in space attack-defense architecture research.

  5. Paediatric Early Warning Score - A multi-center randomized controlled intervention study

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, Claus Sixtus; Aagaard, Hanne; Olesen, Hanne Vebert

    of the intervention and evaluation. The study involves all paediatric departments and some acute departments in Central Denmark Region. The project both includes quantitative studies and a qualitative evaluation study. The studies will have different designs: • Registry study - exploring and describing life......Paediatric Early Warning System on evolving critical illness and intervention in hospitalised children; a regional multicentre study on implementation of a Paediatric Early Warning System Background: Critical illness in the patient and death can potentially be predicted and prevented. Deterioration...... of the clinical condition of hospitalised patients is often preceded by physiological changes up to 24 hours before death. Despite this several reports show that lack of identification and proper actions in patients developing acute and critical illness remains a problem. Challenges in assessing if a child...

  6. Late Lessons from Early Warnings: Towards realism and precaution with EMF?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gee, David

    2009-08-01

    The histories of some well-known public and environmental hazards, from the first scientifically based early warnings about potential harm, to the subsequent precautionary and preventive measures, have been reviewed by the European Environment Agency in their report "Late Lessons from Early Warnings: The Precautionary Principle 1896-2000". This paper summarises some of the definitional and other issues that arise from the report and subsequent debates, such as the contingent nature of knowledge; the definitions of precaution, prevention, risk, uncertainty, and ignorance; the use of different strengths of evidence for different purposes; the nature and main direction of the methodological and cultural biases within the environmental health sciences; the need for transparency in evaluating risks; and public participation in risk analysis. These issues are relevant to the risk assessment of electro-magnetic fields (EMF). Some implications of these issues and of the "late lessons" for the evaluation and reduction of risks from EMF are indicated.

  7. Global early warning systems for natural hazards: systematic and people-centred.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basher, Reid

    2006-08-15

    To be effective, early warning systems for natural hazards need to have not only a sound scientific and technical basis, but also a strong focus on the people exposed to risk, and with a systems approach that incorporates all of the relevant factors in that risk, whether arising from the natural hazards or social vulnerabilities, and from short-term or long-term processes. Disasters are increasing in number and severity and international institutional frameworks to reduce disasters are being strengthened under United Nations oversight. Since the Indian Ocean tsunami of 26 December 2004, there has been a surge of interest in developing early warning systems to cater to the needs of all countries and all hazards.

  8. Surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China: From 2012 to 2014.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Honglong; Wang, Liping; Lai, Shengjie; Li, Zhongjie; Sun, Qiao; Zhang, Peng

    2017-07-01

    Appropriate surveillance and early warning of infectious diseases have very useful roles in disease control and prevention. In 2004, China established the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System and the Public Health Emergency Event Surveillance System to report disease surveillance and events on the basis of data sources from the National Notifiable Infectious Disease Surveillance System, China Infectious Disease Automated-alert and Response System in this country. This study provided a descriptive summary and a data analysis, from 2012 to 2014, of these 3 key surveillance and early warning systems of infectious disease in China with the intent to provide suggestions for system improvement and perfection. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. An Intelligent Broadcasting Algorithm for Early Warning Message Dissemination in VANETs

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ihn-Han Bae

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Vehicular ad hoc network (VANET has gained much attention recently to improve road safety, reduce traffic congestion, and enable efficient traffic management because of its many important applications in transportation. In this paper, an early warning intelligence broadcasting algorithm is proposed, EW-ICAST, to disseminate a safety message for VANETs. The proposed EW-ICAST uses not only the early warning system on the basis of time to collision (TTC but also the intelligent broadcasting algorithm on the basis of fuzzy logic. Thus, the EW-ICAST resolves effectively broadcast storm problem and meets time-critical requirement. The performance of EW-ICAST is evaluated through simulation and compared with that of other alert message dissemination algorithms. From the simulation results, we know that EW-ICAST is superior to Simple, P-persistence, and EDB algorithms.

  10. Modifications of the National Early Warning Score for patients with chronic respiratory disease

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, N. E.; Rasmussen, L. S.; Petersen, J. A.

    2017-01-01

    System (CROS), the Chronic Respiratory Early Warning Score (CREWS) and the Salford NEWS (S-NEWS) affected NEWS total scores and NEWS performance. METHODS: In an observational study, we included patients with chronic respiratory disease. The frequency of use of CROS and the NEWS total score changes caused...... and specialist consultation' total score intervals to lower intervals. CONCLUSION: Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override System was frequently used in patients with chronic respiratory disease. CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS reduced sensitivity for 48-h mortality and ICU admission. Using the methodology prevalent......BACKGROUND: The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) uses physiological variables to detect deterioration in hospitalized patients. However, patients with chronic respiratory disease may have abnormal variables not requiring interventions. We studied how the Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override...

  11. Uncertainty assessment of early flood warning driven by the TIGGE ensemble weather predictions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yingchun; Li, Zhijia; He, Yi; Wetterhall, Fredrik; Manful, Desmond; Cloke, Hannah; Pappenberger, Florian

    2010-05-01

    The Xinanjiang hydrological model is used in flood forecasting driven by the TIGGE ensemble weather predictions. Uncertainties are inherent in both the ensemble weather predictions and the hydrological models. The study aims to study uncertainties originated from (1) the ensemble weather predictions and (2) the hydrological model. The study area is the Xixian catchment, upstream of the Huai River located in central east China. The catchment has a number of reservoirs which account for approximately 10% of the total catchment area. Reservoir water release plan is the key to a successful and reliable flood early warning and mitigation scheme. Different scenarios of reservoir releases are taken into account in this study. A benefit-cost analysis is carried out to estimate the overall value for money when an early warning is issued under various scenarios and probabilistic forecasts.

  12. Recent Advances in Optical Biosensors for Environmental Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Zhu

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The growing number of pollutants requires the development of innovative analytical devices that are precise, sensitive, specific, rapid, and easy-to-use to meet the increasing demand for legislative actions on environmental pollution control and early warning. Optical biosensors, as a powerful alternative to conventional analytical techniques, enable the highly sensitive, real-time, and high-frequency monitoring of pollutants without extensive sample preparation. This article reviews important advances in functional biorecognition materials (e.g., enzymes, aptamers, DNAzymes, antibodies and whole cells that facilitate the increasing application of optical biosensors. This work further examines the significant improvements in optical biosensor instrumentation and their environmental applications. Innovative developments of optical biosensors for environmental pollution control and early warning are also discussed.

  13. Serious adverse events in a hospital using early warning score - what went wrong?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, John Asger; Mackel, Rebecca; Antonsen, Kristian

    2014-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the performance of a new early warning score (EWS) system by reviewing all serious adverse events in our hospital over a 6-month time period. METHOD: All incidents of unexpected death (UD), cardiac arrest (CA) and unanticipated intensive care unit admission(UICU) of adult patients...... physicians provided adequate care in 49% of cases of UICU and 29% of cases of the CO. Senior staff was involved according to protocol in 53% and 36% of cases of UICU and CO, respectively. CONCLUSION: Poor compliance with the escalation protocol was commonly found when serious adverse events occurred...... but level of care provided by physicians was also a problem in a hospital with implemented early warning system. This information may prove useful in improving performance of EWS systems....

  14. Prototype Early Warning Systems for Vector-Borne Diseases in Europe

    OpenAIRE

    Semenza, Jan C.

    2015-01-01

    Globalization and environmental change, social and demographic determinants and health system capacity are significant drivers of infectious diseases which can also act as epidemic precursors. Thus, monitoring changes in these drivers can help anticipate, or even forecast, an upsurge of infectious diseases. The European Environment and Epidemiology (E3) Network has been built for this purpose and applied to three early warning case studies: (1) The environmental suitability of malaria transm...

  15. Imperfect implementation of an early warning scoring system in a Danish teaching hospital

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Niegsch, Mark; Fabritius, Maria Louise; Anhøj, Jacob

    2013-01-01

    In 2007, the initiation of a patient safety campaign led to the introduction of Ward Observational Charts (WOC) and Medical Early Warning Score (MEWS) at Naestved Regional Hospital. This included systematic measuring of vital signs of all patients in order to prevent patient deterioration and ass...... and assure timely and correct initiation of treatment. The aim of this study was to assess to what degree WOC guidelines being followed by ward staff....

  16. Interpreting Financial Market Crashes as Earthquakes: A New early Warning System for Medium Term Crashes

    OpenAIRE

    Gresnigt, Francine; Kole, Erik; Franses, Philip Hans

    2014-01-01

    This discussion paper has led to a publication in the Journal of Banking and Finance , 2015, 56, 123-139. We propose a modeling framework which allows for creating probability predictions on a future market crash in the medium term, like sometime in the next five days. Our framework draws upon noticeable similarities between stock returns around a financial market crash and seismic activity around earthquakes. Our model is incorporated in an Early Warning System for future crash days. Testing...

  17. Pediatric early warning score at time of emergency department disposition is associated with level of care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breslin, Kristen; Marx, Julie; Hoffman, Heather; McBeth, Ryan; Pavuluri, Padmaja

    2014-02-01

    The objective of this study was to determine the association between the Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) at time of emergency department (ED) disposition and level of care. We conducted a prospective observational study with a convenience sample of patients aged 0 to 21 years in the ED of an urban, tertiary care children's hospital between November 2010 and July 2011. Pediatric Early Warning Score data were obtained at time of ED disposition, and the disposition decision was collected from the electronic medical record. Multinomial logistic regression was used to determine the association between PEWS and disposition. The sample of 383 patients included 239 (62%) who were discharged, 126 (33%) admitted to acute care, and 18 (5%) admitted to intensive care. Assigned scores ranged from 0 to 9. Adjusting for triage level, a 1-point increase in PEWS increased the odds of acute care admission 48% relative to the odds of discharge (odds ratio, 1.48; 95% confidence interval, 1.25-1.76) and increased the odds of intensive care admission 41% relative to the odds of acute care admission (odds ratio, 1.41; 95% confidence interval, 1.13-1.76). Pediatric Early Warning Score of 1 or more had maximum discriminant ability for admission, and PEWS of 3 or greater had maximum discriminant ability for intensive care. Area under the receiver operator characteristic curve was 0.68 to detect need for admission for the entire sample and 0.80 among the 97 patients with respiratory complaints. Pediatric Early Warning Score is associated with the level of care at ED disposition but does not provide adequate sensitivity and specificity to be used in isolation. Performance characteristics are better for patients with respiratory complaints.

  18. Tsunami Early Warning System: Deep Sea Measurements in the Source Area.

    OpenAIRE

    Pignagnoli, Luca; Chierici, Francesco; Favali, P.; Beranzoli, L.; Embriaco, D.; Monna, S.; D'Oriano, Filippo; Zitellini, Nevio

    2011-01-01

    In the framework of the EU project NEAREST, a new Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS), able to operate in tsunami generation areas, was developed and installed in the Gulf of Cadiz. The TEWS is based on the abyssal station GEOSTAR, placed above a major tsunamigenic structure, and on three seismic centres of Portugal, Spain and Morocco. The core of the system is a tsunami detector installed onboard of GEOSTAR. The tsunami detector communicates with a surface buoy through a dual acoustic lin...

  19. An online operational rainfall-monitoring resource for epidemic malaria early warning systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grover-Kopec, Emily; Kawano, Mika; Klaver, Robert W.; Blumenthal, Benno; Ceccato, Pietro; Connor, Stephen J.

    2005-01-01

    Periodic epidemics of malaria are a major public health problem for many sub-Saharan African countries. Populations in epidemic prone areas have a poorly developed immunity to malaria and the disease remains life threatening to all age groups. The impact of epidemics could be minimized by prediction and improved prevention through timely vector control and deployment of appropriate drugs. Malaria Early Warning Systems are advocated as a means of improving the opportunity for preparedness and timely response.Rainfall is one of the major factors triggering epidemics in warm semi-arid and desert-fringe areas. Explosive epidemics often occur in these regions after excessive rains and, where these follow periods of drought and poor food security, can be especially severe. Consequently, rainfall monitoring forms one of the essential elements for the development of integrated Malaria Early Warning Systems for sub-Saharan Africa, as outlined by the World Health Organization.The Roll Back Malaria Technical Resource Network on Prevention and Control of Epidemics recommended that a simple indicator of changes in epidemic risk in regions of marginal transmission, consisting primarily of rainfall anomaly maps, could provide immediate benefit to early warning efforts. In response to these recommendations, the Famine Early Warning Systems Network produced maps that combine information about dekadal rainfall anomalies, and epidemic malaria risk, available via their Africa Data Dissemination Service. These maps were later made available in a format that is directly compatible with HealthMapper, the mapping and surveillance software developed by the WHO's Communicable Disease Surveillance and Response Department. A new monitoring interface has recently been developed at the International Research Institute for Climate Prediction (IRI) that enables the user to gain a more contextual perspective of the current rainfall estimates by comparing them to previous seasons and climatological

  20. Validation of the Cardiac Children's Hospital Early Warning Score: an early warning scoring tool to prevent cardiopulmonary arrests in children with heart disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McLellan, Mary C; Gauvreau, Kimberlee; Connor, Jean A

    2014-01-01

    Most inpatient pediatric arrests are preventable by early recognition/treatment of deterioration. Children with cardiac disease have the highest arrest rates; however, early warning scoring systems have not been validated in this population. The objective of this study was to validate the Cardiac Children's Hospital Early Warning Score (C-CHEWS) tool in inpatient pediatric cardiac patients. The associated escalation of care algorithm directs: routine care (score 0-2), increased assessment/intervention (3-4), or cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) consult/transfer (≥5). Sensitivity and specificity were estimated based on retrospective review of patients that experienced unplanned CICU transfer/arrest (n = 64) and a comparison sample (n = 248) of admissions. The previously validated Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) tool was used for comparison. Patients' highest C-CHEWS scores were compared with calculated PEWS scores. Area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUROC) curve was calculated for PEWS and C-CHEWS to measure discrimination. The AUROC curve for C-CHEWS was 0.917 compared with PEWS 0.785 (P score ≥ 2), 79.7 (≥4), and 67.2 (≥5) vs. PEWS of 81.1(≥2), 37.5 (≥4), and 23.4 (≥5). C-CHEWS specificity was 58.1 (≥2), 85.5 (≥4), and 93.6 (≥5) vs. PEWS of 81.1 (≥2), 94.8 (≥4) and 97.6 (≥5). Lead time of elevated C-CHEWS scores (≥2) was a median of 9.25 hours prior to event vs. PEWS, which was 2.25 hours and lead time for critical C-CHEWS scores (≥5) was 2 hours vs. 0 hours for PEWS (P < .001). C-CHEWS has excellent discrimination to identify deterioration in children with cardiac disease and performed significantly better than PEWS both as an ordinal variable and when choosing cut points to maximize AUROC. C-CHEWS has a higher sensitivity than PEWS at all cut points. © 2013 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  1. Development of structural health monitoring and early warning system for reinforced concrete system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Iranata, Data, E-mail: iranata-data@yahoo.com, E-mail: data@ce.its.ac.id; Wahyuni, Endah [Civil Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya 60111 (Indonesia); Murtiadi, Suryawan [Civil Engineering Department, Universitas Mataram, Mataram 83125 (Indonesia); Widodo, Amien [Geophysical Engineering Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya 60111 (Indonesia); Riksakomara, Edwin; Sani, Nisfu Asrul [Information Systems Department, Institut Teknologi Sepuluh Nopember (ITS), Surabaya 60111 (Indonesia)

    2015-04-24

    Many buildings have been damaged due to earthquakes that occurred recently in Indonesia. The main cause of the damage is the large deformation of the building structural component cannot accommodate properly. Therefore, it is necessary to develop the Structural Health Monitoring System (SHMS) to measure precisely the deformation of the building structural component in the real time conditions. This paper presents the development of SHMS for reinforced concrete structural system. This monitoring system is based on deformation component such as strain of reinforcement bar, concrete strain, and displacement of reinforced concrete component. Since the deformation component has exceeded the limit value, the warning message can be sent to the building occupies. This warning message has also can be performed as early warning system of the reinforced concrete structural system. The warning message can also be sent via Short Message Service (SMS) through the Global System for Mobile Communications (GSM) network. Hence, the SHMS should be integrated with internet modem to connect with GSM network. Additionally, the SHMS program is verified with experimental study of simply supported reinforced concrete beam. Verification results show that the SHMS has good agreement with experimental results.

  2. Power Quality Prediction, Early Warning, and Control for Points of Common Coupling with Wind Farms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jingjing Bai

    2015-08-01

    Full Text Available Wind farms can affect the power quality (PQ of the power supply grid, with subsequent impacts on the safe and stable operation of other electrical equipment. A novel PQ prediction, early warning, and control approach for the common coupling points between wind farms and the network is proposed in this paper. We then quantify PQ problems and provide rational support measures. To obtain predicted PQ data, we first establish a trend analysis model. The model incorporates a distance-based cluster analysis, probability distribution analysis based on polynomial fitting, pattern matching based on similarity, and Monte Carlo random sampling. A data mining algorithm then uses the PQ early warning flow to analyze limit-exceeding and abnormal data, quantify their severity, and output early warning prompts. Finally, PQ decision support is applied to inform both the power suppliers and users of anomalous changes in PQ, and advise on corresponding countermeasures to reduce relevant losses. Case studies show that the proposed approach is effective and feasible, and it has now been applied to an actual PQ monitoring platform.

  3. Methods for detecting early warnings of critical transitions in time series illustrated using simulated ecological data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasilis Dakos

    Full Text Available Many dynamical systems, including lakes, organisms, ocean circulation patterns, or financial markets, are now thought to have tipping points where critical transitions to a contrasting state can happen. Because critical transitions can occur unexpectedly and are difficult to manage, there is a need for methods that can be used to identify when a critical transition is approaching. Recent theory shows that we can identify the proximity of a system to a critical transition using a variety of so-called 'early warning signals', and successful empirical examples suggest a potential for practical applicability. However, while the range of proposed methods for predicting critical transitions is rapidly expanding, opinions on their practical use differ widely, and there is no comparative study that tests the limitations of the different methods to identify approaching critical transitions using time-series data. Here, we summarize a range of currently available early warning methods and apply them to two simulated time series that are typical of systems undergoing a critical transition. In addition to a methodological guide, our work offers a practical toolbox that may be used in a wide range of fields to help detect early warning signals of critical transitions in time series data.

  4. Assessing Earthquake Early Warning Using Sparse Networks in Developing Countries: Case Study of the Kyrgyz Republic

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefano Parolai

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol and Kazakhstan (Almaty, where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centers. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

  5. Dynamical state transitions into addictive behaviour and their early-warning signals.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foo, Jerome Clifford; Noori, Hamid Reza; Yamaguchi, Ikuhiro; Vengeliene, Valentina; Cosa-Linan, Alejandro; Nakamura, Toru; Morita, Kenji; Spanagel, Rainer; Yamamoto, Yoshiharu

    2017-08-16

    The theory of critical transitions in complex systems (ecosystems, climate, etc.), and especially its ability to predict abrupt changes by early-warning signals based on analysis of fluctuations close to tipping points, is seen as a promising avenue to study disease dynamics. However, the biomedical field still lacks a clear demonstration of this concept. Here, we used a well-established animal model in which initial alcohol exposure followed by deprivation and subsequent reintroduction of alcohol induces excessive alcohol drinking as an example of disease onset. Intensive longitudinal data (ILD) of rat drinking behaviour and locomotor activity were acquired by a fully automated drinkometer device over 14 weeks. Dynamical characteristics of ILD were extracted using a multi-scale computational approach. Our analysis shows a transition into addictive behaviour preceded by early-warning signals such as instability of drinking patterns and locomotor circadian rhythms, and a resultant increase in low frequency, ultradian rhythms during the first week of deprivation. We find evidence that during prolonged deprivation, a critical transition takes place pushing the system to excessive alcohol consumption. This study provides an adaptable framework for processing ILD from clinical studies and for examining disease dynamics and early-warning signals in the biomedical field. © 2017 The Authors.

  6. Assessing earthquake early warning using sparse networks in developing countries: Case study of the Kyrgyz Republic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parolai, Stefano; Boxberger, Tobias; Pilz, Marco; Fleming, Kevin; Haas, Michael; Pittore, Massimiliano; Petrovic, Bojana; Moldobekov, Bolot; Zubovich, Alexander; Lauterjung, Joern

    2017-09-01

    The first real-time digital strong-motion network in Central Asia has been installed in the Kyrgyz Republic since 2014. Although this network consists of only 19 strong-motion stations, they are located in near-optimal locations for earthquake early warning and rapid response purposes. In fact, it is expected that this network, which utilizes the GFZ-Sentry software, allowing decentralized event assessment calculations, not only will provide useful strong motion data useful for improving future seismic hazard and risk assessment, but will serve as the backbone for regional and on-site earthquake early warning operations. Based on the location of these stations, and travel-time estimates for P- and S-waves, we have determined potential lead times for several major urban areas in Kyrgyzstan (i.e., Bishkek, Osh, and Karakol) and Kazakhstan (Almaty), where we find the implementation of an efficient earthquake early warning system would provide lead times outside the blind zone ranging from several seconds up to several tens of seconds. This was confirmed by the simulation of the possible shaking (and intensity) that would arise considering a series of scenarios based on historical and expected events, and how they affect the major urban centres. Such lead times would allow the instigation of automatic mitigation procedures, while the system as a whole would support prompt and efficient actions to be undertaken over large areas.

  7. Early warning of climate tipping points from critical slowing down: comparing methods to improve robustness.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lenton, T M; Livina, V N; Dakos, V; van Nes, E H; Scheffer, M

    2012-03-13

    We address whether robust early warning signals can, in principle, be provided before a climate tipping point is reached, focusing on methods that seek to detect critical slowing down as a precursor of bifurcation. As a test bed, six previously analysed datasets are reconsidered, three palaeoclimate records approaching abrupt transitions at the end of the last ice age and three models of varying complexity forced through a collapse of the Atlantic thermohaline circulation. Approaches based on examining the lag-1 autocorrelation function or on detrended fluctuation analysis are applied together and compared. The effects of aggregating the data, detrending method, sliding window length and filtering bandwidth are examined. Robust indicators of critical slowing down are found prior to the abrupt warming event at the end of the Younger Dryas, but the indicators are less clear prior to the Bølling-Allerød warming, or glacial termination in Antarctica. Early warnings of thermohaline circulation collapse can be masked by inter-annual variability driven by atmospheric dynamics. However, rapidly decaying modes can be successfully filtered out by using a long bandwidth or by aggregating data. The two methods have complementary strengths and weaknesses and we recommend applying them together to improve the robustness of early warnings.

  8. Rapid and robust characterization of the earthquake source for tsunami early-warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lomax, Anthony; Michelini, Alberto; Bernardi, Fabrizio; Lauciani, Valentino

    2015-04-01

    Effective tsunami early-warning after an earthquake is difficult when the distances and tsunami travel-times between earthquake/tsunami source regions and coast lines at risk are small, especially since the density of seismic and other monitoring stations is very low in most regions of risk. For tsunami warning worldwide, seismic monitoring and analysis currently provide the majority of information available within the first tens of minutes after an earthquake. This information is used for direct tsunami hazard assessment, and as basic input to real-time, tsunami hazard modeling. It is thus crucial that key earthquake parameters are determined as rapidly and reliably as possible, in a probabilistic, time-evolving manner, along with full uncertainties. Early-est (EArthquake Rapid Location sYstem with EStimation of Tsunamigenesis) is the module for rapid earthquake detection, location and analysis at the INGV tsunami alert center (CAT, "Centro di Allerta Tsunami"), part of the Italian, candidate Tsunami Watch Provider. Here we present the information produced by Early-est within the first 10 min after an earthquake to characterize the location, depth, magnitude, mechanism and tsunami potential of an earthquake. We discuss key algorithms in Early-est that produce fully automatic, robust results and their uncertainties in the shortest possible time using sparse observations. For example, a broadband picker and a robust, probabilistic, global-search detector/associator/locator component of Early-est can detect and locate a seismic event with as few as 4 to 5 P onset observations. We also discuss how these algorithms may be further evolved to provide even earlier and more robust results. Finally, we illustrate how the real-time, evolutionary and probabilistic earthquake information produced by Early-est, along with prior and non-seismic information and later seismic information (e.g., full-waveform moment-tensors), may be used within time-evolving, decision and modeling

  9. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald; Norman, Steve

    2013-01-01

    U.S. forests occupy approx.1/3 of total land area (approx. 304 million ha). Since 2000, a growing number of regionally evident forest disturbances have occurred due to abiotic and biotic agents. Regional forest disturbances can threaten human life and property, bio-diversity and water supplies. Timely regional forest disturbance monitoring products are needed to aid forest health management work. Near Real Time (NRT) twice daily MODIS NDVI data provide a means to monitor U.S. regional forest disturbances every 8 days. Since 2010, these NRT forest change products have been produced and posted on the US Forest Service ForWarn Early Warning System for Forest Threats.

  10. PRESSCA: A regional operative Early Warning System for landslides risk scenario assessment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponziani, Francesco; Stelluti, Marco; Berni, Nicola; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2013-04-01

    The Italian national alert system for the hydraulic and hydrogeological risk is ensured by the National Civil Protection Department, through the "Functional Centres" Network, together with scientific/technical Support Centres, named "Competence Centres". The role of the Functional Centres is to alert regional/national civil protection network, to manage the prediction and the monitoring phases, thus ensuring the flow of data for the management of the emergency. The Umbria regional alerting procedure is based on three increasing warning levels of criticality for 6 sub-areas (~1200 km²). Specifically, for each duration (from 1 to 48 hours), three criticality levels are assigned to the rainfall values corresponding to a recurrence interval of 2, 5, and 10 years. In order to improve confidence on the daily work for hydrogeological risk assessment and management, a simple and operational early warning system for the prediction of shallow landslide triggering on regional scale was implemented. The system is primarily based on rainfall thresholds, which represent the main element of evaluation for the early-warning procedures of the Italian Civil Protection system. Following previous studies highlighting that soil moisture conditions play a key role on landslide triggering, a continuous physically-based soil water balance model was implemented for the estimation of soil moisture conditions over the whole regional territory. In fact, a decreasing trend between the cumulated rainfall values over 24, 36 and 48 hours and the soil moisture conditions prior to past landslide events was observed. This trend provides an easy-to-use tool to dynamically adjust the operational rainfall thresholds with the soil moisture conditions simulated by the soil water balance model prior to rainfall events. The application of this procedure allowed decreasing the uncertainties tied to the application of the rainfall thresholds only. The system is actually operational in real-time and it was

  11. Application of real‐time GPS to earthquake early warning in subduction and strike‐slip environments

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Colombelli, Simona; Allen, Richard M; Zollo, Aldo

    2013-01-01

    We explore the application of GPS data to earthquake early warning and investigate whether the coseismic ground deformation can be used to provide fast and reliable magnitude estimations and ground shaking predictions...

  12. Self-contained local broadband seismogeodetic early warning system: Detection and location

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldberg, D. E.; Bock, Y.

    2017-04-01

    Earthquake and local tsunami early warning is critical to mitigating adverse impacts of large-magnitude earthquakes. An optimal system must rely on near-source data to maximize warning time. To this end, we have developed a self-contained seismogeodetic early warning system employing an optimal combination of high-frequency information from strong-motion accelerometers and low-frequency information from collocated Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS) instruments to estimate real-time displacements and velocities. Like GNSS, and unlike broadband seismometers, seismogeodetic stations record the full waveform, including static offset, without clipping in the near-field or saturating for large magnitude earthquakes. However, GNSS alone cannot provide a self-contained system and requires an external seismic trigger. Seismogeodetic stations detect P wave arrivals with the same sensitivity as strong-motion accelerometers and thus provide a stand-alone system. We demonstrate the utility of near-source seismogeodesy for event detection and location with analysis of the 2010 Mw7.2 El Mayor-Cucapah, Baja, California and 2014 Mw6.0 Napa, California strike-slip events, and the 2014 Mw8.2 Iquique, Chile subduction zone earthquake using observatory-grade accelerometers and GPS data. We present lessons from the 2014 Mw4.0 Piedmont, California and 2016 Mw5.2 Borrego Springs, California earthquakes, recorded by our seismogeodetic system with Micro-Electro Mechanical System (MEMS) accelerometers and GPS data and reanalyzed retrospectively. We conclude that our self-contained seismogeodetic system is suitable for early warning for earthquakes of significance (>M5) using either observatory-grade or MEMS accelerometers. Finally, we discuss the effect of network design on hypocenter location and suggest the deployment of additional seismogeodetic stations for the western U.S.

  13. Integrated Land- and Underwater-Based Sensors for a Subduction Zone Earthquake Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pirenne, B.; Rosenberger, A.; Rogers, G. C.; Henton, J.; Lu, Y.; Moore, T.

    2016-12-01

    Ocean Networks Canada (ONC — oceannetworks.ca/ ) operates cabled ocean observatories off the coast of British Columbia (BC) to support research and operational oceanography. Recently, ONC has been funded by the Province of BC to deliver an earthquake early warning (EEW) system that integrates offshore and land-based sensors to deliver alerts of incoming ground shaking from the Cascadia Subduction Zone. ONC's cabled seismic network has the unique advantage of being located offshore on either side of the surface expression of the subduction zone. The proximity of ONC's sensors to the fault can result in faster, more effective warnings, which translates into more lives saved, injuries avoided and more ability for mitigative actions to take place.ONC delivers near real-time data from various instrument types simultaneously, providing distinct advantages to seismic monitoring and earthquake early warning. The EEW system consists of a network of sensors, located on the ocean floor and on land, that detect and analyze the initial p-wave of an earthquake as well as the crustal deformation on land during the earthquake sequence. Once the p-wave is detected and characterized, software systems correlate the data streams of the various sensors and deliver alerts to clients through a Common Alerting Protocol-compliant data package. This presentation will focus on the development of the earthquake early warning capacity at ONC. It will describe the seismic sensors and their distribution, the p-wave detection algorithms selected and the overall architecture of the system. It will further overview the plan to achieve operational readiness at project completion.

  14. Experiences integrating autonomous components and legacy systems into tsunami early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reißland, S.; Herrnkind, S.; Guenther, M.; Babeyko, A.; Comoglu, M.; Hammitzsch, M.

    2012-04-01

    Fostered by and embedded in the general development of Information and Communication Technology (ICT) the evolution of Tsunami Early Warning Systems (TEWS) shows a significant development from seismic-centred to multi-sensor system architectures using additional sensors, e.g. sea level stations for the detection of tsunami waves and GPS stations for the detection of ground displacements. Furthermore, the design and implementation of a robust and scalable service infrastructure supporting the integration and utilisation of existing resources serving near real-time data not only includes sensors but also other components and systems offering services such as the delivery of feasible simulations used for forecasting in an imminent tsunami threat. In the context of the development of the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS) and the project Distant Early Warning System (DEWS) a service platform for both sensor integration and warning dissemination has been newly developed and demonstrated. In particular, standards of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) and the Organization for the Advancement of Structured Information Standards (OASIS) have been successfully incorporated. In the project Collaborative, Complex, and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises (TRIDEC) new developments are used to extend the existing platform to realise a component-based technology framework for building distributed TEWS. This talk will describe experiences made in GITEWS, DEWS and TRIDEC while integrating legacy stand-alone systems and newly developed special-purpose software components into TEWS using different software adapters and communication strategies to make the systems work together in a corporate infrastructure. The talk will also cover task management and data conversion between the different systems. Practical approaches and software solutions for the integration of sensors, e.g. providing seismic and sea level data, and utilisation of special

  15. Strengths and limitations of early warning scores: A systematic review and narrative synthesis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downey, C L; Tahir, W; Randell, R; Brown, J M; Jayne, D G

    2017-09-13

    Early warning scores are widely used to identify deteriorating patients. Whilst their ability to predict clinical outcomes has been extensively reviewed, there has been no attempt to summarise the overall strengths and limitations of these scores for patients, staff and systems. This review aims to address this gap in the literature to guide improvements for the optimization of patient safety. A systematic review was conducted of MEDLINE(®), PubMed, CINAHL and The Cochrane Library in September 2016. The citations and reference lists of selected studies were reviewed for completeness. Studies were included if they evaluated vital signs monitoring in adult human subjects. Studies regarding the paediatric population were excluded, as were studies describing the development or validation of monitoring models. A narrative synthesis of qualitative, quantitative and mixed- methods studies was undertaken. 232 studies met the inclusion criteria. Twelve themes were identified from synthesis of the data: Strengths of early warning scores included their prediction value, influence on clinical outcomes, cross-specialty application, international relevance, interaction with other variables, impact on communication and opportunity for automation. Limitations included their sensitivity, the need for practitioner engagement, the need for reaction to escalation and the need for clinical judgment, and the intermittent nature of recording. Early warning scores are known to have good predictive value for patient deterioration and have been shown to improve patient outcomes across a variety of specialties and international settings. This is partly due to their facilitation of communication between healthcare workers. There is evidence that the prediction value of generic early warning scores suffers in comparison to specialty-specific scores, and that their sensitivity can be improved by the addition of other variables. They are also prone to inaccurate recording and user error, which

  16. Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Real-Time Strong Motion Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hiroo Kanamori

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available As urbanization progresses worldwide, earthquakes pose serious threat to livesand properties for urban areas near major active faults on land or subduction zonesoffshore. Earthquake Early Warning (EEW can be a useful tool for reducing earthquakehazards, if the spatial relation between cities and earthquake sources is favorable for suchwarning and their citizens are properly trained to respond to earthquake warning messages.An EEW system forewarns an urban area of forthcoming strong shaking, normally with afew sec to a few tens of sec of warning time, i.e., before the arrival of the destructive Swavepart of the strong ground motion. Even a few second of advanced warning time willbe useful for pre-programmed emergency measures for various critical facilities, such asrapid-transit vehicles and high-speed trains to avoid potential derailment; it will be alsouseful for orderly shutoff of gas pipelines to minimize fire hazards, controlled shutdown ofhigh-technological manufacturing operations to reduce potential losses, and safe-guardingof computer facilities to avoid loss of vital databases. We explored a practical approach toEEW with the use of a ground-motion period parameter τc and a high-pass filtered verticaldisplacement amplitude parameter Pd from the initial 3 sec of the P waveforms. At a givensite, an earthquake magnitude could be determined from τc and the peak ground-motionvelocity (PGV could be estimated from Pd. In this method, incoming strong motion acceleration signals are recursively converted to ground velocity and displacement. A Pwavetrigger is constantly monitored. When a trigger occurs, τc and Pd are computed. Theearthquake magnitude and the on-site ground-motion intensity could be estimated and thewarning could be issued. In an ideal situation, such warnings would be available within 10sec of the origin time of a large earthquake whose subsequent ground motion may last fortens of seconds.

  17. Challenges for operational forecasting and early warning of rainfall induced landslides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzzetti, Fausto

    2017-04-01

    In many areas of the world, landslides occur every year, claiming lives and producing severe economic and environmental damage. Many of the landslides with human or economic consequences are the result of intense or prolonged rainfall. For this reason, in many areas the timely forecast of rainfall-induced landslides is of both scientific interest and social relevance. In the recent years, there has been a mounting interest and an increasing demand for operational landslide forecasting, and for associated landslide early warning systems. Despite the relevance of the problem, and the increasing interest and demand, only a few systems have been designed, and are currently operated. Inspection of the - limited - literature on operational landslide forecasting, and on the associated early warning systems, reveals that common criteria and standards for the design, the implementation, the operation, and the evaluation of the performances of the systems, are lacking. This limits the possibility to compare and to evaluate the systems critically, to identify their inherent strengths and weaknesses, and to improve the performance of the systems. Lack of common criteria and of established standards can also limit the credibility of the systems, and consequently their usefulness and potential practical impact. Landslides are very diversified phenomena, and the information and the modelling tools used to attempt landslide forecasting vary largely, depending on the type and size of the landslides, the extent of the geographical area considered, the timeframe of the forecasts, and the scope of the predictions. Consequently, systems for landslide forecasting and early warning can be designed and implemented at several different geographical scales, from the local (site or slope specific) to the regional, or even national scale. The talk focuses on regional to national scale landslide forecasting systems, and specifically on operational systems based on empirical rainfall threshold

  18. Main components and characteristics of landslide early warning systems operational worldwide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piciullo, Luca; Cepeda, José

    2017-04-01

    During the last decades the number of victims and economic losses due to natural hazards are dramatically increased worldwide. The reason can be mainly ascribed to climate changes and urbanization in areas exposed at high level of risk. Among the many mitigation measures available for reducing the risk to life related to natural hazards, early warning systems certainly constitute a significant cost-effective option available to the authorities in charge of risk management and governance. The aim is to help and protect populations exposed to natural hazards, reducing fatalities when major events occur. Landslide is one of the natural hazards addressed by early warning systems. Landslide early warning systems (LEWSs) are mainly composed by the following four components: set-up, correlation laws, decisional algorithm and warning management. Within this framework, the set-up includes all the preliminary actions and choices necessary for designing a LEWS, such as: the area covered by the system, the types of landslides and the monitoring instruments. The monitoring phase provides a series of important information on different variables, considered as triggering factors for landslides, in order to define correlation laws and thresholds. Then, a decisional algorithm is necessary for defining the: number of warning levels to be employed in the system, decision making procedures, and everything else system managers may need for issuing warnings in different warning zones. Finally the warning management is composed by: monitoring and warning strategy; communication strategy; emergency plan and, everything connected to the social sphere. Among LEWSs operational worldwide, two categories can be defined as a function of the scale of analysis: "local" and "territorial" systems. The scale of analysis influences several actions and aspects connected to the design and employment of the system, such as: the actors involved, the monitoring systems, type of landslide phenomena

  19. Evaluation of Early Warning Alert and Response System (Ewars) Health Office in Tulang Bawang Lampung Province 2012

    OpenAIRE

    Saleh, Muhammad; Budi, Iwan Stia; Purba, Imelda G

    2015-01-01

    Background: Early Warning Alert and Response System (EWARS) is one of the surveillance tools to determine early the presence warning signals of infectious disease, outbreaks potential. Based on weekly reports in 2012 at Tulang Bawang Health Office, it was showed that the accuracy and completeness of EWARS reports had been the lowest rates among 13 offices in Lampung. In the other hand, it hand not reach the Ministry of Health standard. Method: This research was qualitative research by using ...

  20. Concept Design of a Near-Space Radar for Maritime Surveillance and Near-Field Tsunami Early-Warning

    OpenAIRE

    Galletti, Michele; Börner, Thomas; Krieger, Gerhard

    2008-01-01

    Off-shore detection of Tsunami waves is a critical component of an effective Tsunami early warning system (TEWS). Even more critical is the off-shore detection of local Tsunamis, namely Tsunamis that strike coastal areas within minutes from the triggering quake. In this paper we propose a new concept for near-field Tsunami early warning. NESTRAD (Near-Space Tsunami Radar) consists of a real aperture radar accommodated inside a stationary stratospheric airship providing continuous monitoring o...

  1. Concept Study and Designs of Radar Sensors for Maritime Surveillance and Near-Field Tsunami Early Warning

    OpenAIRE

    Börner, Thomas; Galletti, Michele; Marquart, Nicolas

    2009-01-01

    Off-shore detection of Tsunami waves is a critical component of an effective Tsunami early warning system (TEWS). Even more critical is the off-shore detection of local Tsunamis, namely Tsunamis that strike coastal areas within minutes from the triggering quake. In this paper we propose new concepts for near-field Tsunami early warning, based on innovative and up-to-date microwave remote sensing techniques. We particularly introduce the NESTRAD (NEar-Space Tsunami RADar) concept, which consis...

  2. Concept study of radar sensors for near-field tsunami early warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Börner

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Off-shore detection of tsunami waves is a critical component of an effective tsunami early warning system (TEWS. Even more critical is the off-shore detection of local tsunamis, namely tsunamis that strike coastal areas within minutes after generation. In this paper we propose new concepts for near-field tsunami early detection, based on innovative and up-to-date microwave remote sensing techniques. We particularly introduce the NESTRAD (NEar-Space Tsunami RADar concept, which consists of a real aperture radar accommodated inside a stationary stratospheric airship providing continuous monitoring of tsunamigenic oceanic trenches.

  3. Concept study of radar sensors for near-field tsunami early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Börner, T.; Galletti, M.; Marquart, N. P.; Krieger, G.

    2010-09-01

    Off-shore detection of tsunami waves is a critical component of an effective tsunami early warning system (TEWS). Even more critical is the off-shore detection of local tsunamis, namely tsunamis that strike coastal areas within minutes after generation. In this paper we propose new concepts for near-field tsunami early detection, based on innovative and up-to-date microwave remote sensing techniques. We particularly introduce the NESTRAD (NEar-Space Tsunami RADar) concept, which consists of a real aperture radar accommodated inside a stationary stratospheric airship providing continuous monitoring of tsunamigenic oceanic trenches.

  4. The infrared-based early warning system for bird strike prevention at Frankfurt airport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Münzberg, M.; Schilling, A.; Schlemmer, H.; Vogel, H.; Cramer, H.; Schlosshauer, J.

    2011-06-01

    Flocks of migratory birds are very often using geographic structures like rivers, valleys or coast lines for orientation. Wherever the preferred migration routes are crossing the approach corridor of an airport there is an increased risk of bird strike. Flocks of birds crossing the runway corridor of the new runway Northwest of the Frankfurt airport are kept under surveillance now with in total three watch towers located at the river Main which in this case is the preferred used line of orientation. Each of the watch towers carries an early warning system which consists of two pairs of stereoscopic thermal imaging cameras sensitive in the mid wavelength infrared range (3 - 5 μm). A stereoscopic pair measures the swarm size, direction of flight and velocity in real time and with high accuracy. From these results an early warning is derived under all relevant weather conditions. The fixed focus thermal imaging cameras are thermally compensated and designed for ultra low image distortion. Each stereoscopic pair is aligned in the sub-pixel range and is controlled by a reference beam to ensure that the alignment is preserved under all environmental conditions and over a very long time. The technical concept is discussed and the design of the realized warning system at the Frankfurt airport is presented.

  5. Real-Time Performance of PRESTo Earthquake Early Warning System at the Ibero-Maghrebian Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carranza, Marta; Cruz, Eva; Buforn, Elisa; Zollo, Aldo

    2017-04-01

    Recently, the first correlations for an Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) at the Ibero-Maghrebian region have been developed. In order to validate them, we have adapted the Earthquake Early Warning System software platform PRESTo to operate in real time at the Ibero-Maghrebian region. After the period of configuration, it became operative on October 2015, sending warnings to few private users. Here we show the performance of the system during the first 15 months that the EEWS has been operative. More than 400 earthquakes have been detected at the region during the period, for which we have analysed the time needed to issue the alert. We have also compared the first and final estimation of PRESTo with those of the Instituto Geográfico Nacional, for the hipocentral location, origin time and magnitude. A detailed study of the performance of PRESTo for the Alboran 01/25/2016 (Mw=6.3) earthquake, the largest occurred in the region in the last ten years, has been carried out. From the analysis of PRESTo during this period we conclude that an EEWS is feasible and very useful for the Ibero-Maghrebian region.

  6. An analysis of the early-warning system in emerging markets for reducing the financial crisis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiangguang; Song, Xiaozhong

    2009-07-01

    The large number of financial crises in emerging markets over the past ten years has left many observers, both from academia and financial institutions, puzzled by an apparent lack of homogenous causal relations between endogenous economic variables and the bursting of large financial shocks. The frequency of financial crises in the last 20 years can be attributed to the lack of a comprehensive theory of financial regulation to guide policy makers. Existing theories fail to define the range of regulatory models, the causes of regulatory failure, and how to measure and prevent it. Faulty design of regulatory models, and the lack of ongoing performance monitoring incorporating early warning systems, is disrupting economic and social development. The main aim of this article is to propose an early warning system (EWS) which purposes issuing warning signal against the possible financial crisis in the emerging market, and makes the emerging market survived the first wave of the crisis be able to continue their operation in the following years.

  7. Progress on Development of an Earthquake Early Warning System Using Low-Cost Sensors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min

    2015-09-01

    Taiwan is one of the leading developers of earthquake early warning (EEW) systems. The Central Weather Bureau has been the primary developer of the EEW system in Taiwan since 1993. In 2010, the National Taiwan University (NTU) developed an EEW system for research purposes using low-cost accelerometers. As of 2014, a total of 506 stations have been deployed and configured. The NTU system can provide earthquake information within 15 s of an earthquake occurrence. Thus, this system may provide early warnings for cities located more than 50 km from the epicenter. Additionally, the NTU system also has an onsite alert function that triggers a warning for incoming P-waves greater than a certain magnitude threshold, thus providing a 2-3 s lead time before peak ground acceleration for regions close to an epicenter. Detailed shaking maps are produced by the NTU system within one or two minutes after an earthquake. Regions of high shaking indicated by the shalking map can indicate locations of damage and casualties and help estimate the damage incurred. The direction of earthquake ruptures are also potentially identified based on detailed shaking maps and strong motion records of the NTU system.

  8. Development of a consortium for water security and safety: Planning for an early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clark, R.M.; Adam, N.R.; Atluri, V.; Halem, M.; Vowinkel, E.F.; ,

    2004-01-01

    The events of September 11, 2001 have raised concerns over the safety and security of the Nation's critical infrastructure including water and waste water systems. In June 2002, the U.S. EPA's Region II Office (New York City), in response to concerns over water security, in collaboration with Rutgers University agreed to establish a Regional Drinking Water Security and Safety Consortium (RDWSSC). Members of the consortium include: Rutgers University's Center for Information Management, Integration and Connectivity (CIMIC), American Water (AW), the Passaic Valley Water Commission (PVWC), the North Jersey District Water Supply Commission (NJDWSC), the N.J. Department of Environmental Protection, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS), and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agencies, Region II Office. In December of 2002 the consortium members signed a memorandum of understanding (MOU) to pursue activities to enhance regional water security. Development of an early warning system for source and distributed water was identified as being of primary importance by the consortium. In this context, an early warning system (EWS) is an integrated system of monitoring stations located at strategic points in a water utilities source waters or in its distribution system, designed to warn against contaminants that might threaten the health and welfare of drinking water consumers. This paper will discuss the consortium's progress in achieving these important objectives.

  9. False alarms: How early warning signals falsely predict abrupt sea ice loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Till J. W.; Eisenman, Ian

    2016-04-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  10. Early Warning Signals for Abrupt Change Raise False Alarm During Sea Ice Loss

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, T. J. W.; Eisenman, I.

    2015-12-01

    Uncovering universal early warning signals for critical transitions has become a coveted goal in diverse scientific disciplines, ranging from climate science to financial mathematics. There has been a flurry of recent research proposing such signals, with increasing autocorrelation and increasing variance being among the most widely discussed candidates. A number of studies have suggested that increasing autocorrelation alone may suffice to signal an impending transition, although some others have questioned this. Here, we consider variance and autocorrelation in the context of sea ice loss in an idealized model of the global climate system. The model features no bifurcation, nor increased rate of retreat, as the ice disappears. Nonetheless, the autocorrelation of summer sea ice area is found to increase with diminishing sea ice cover in a global warming scenario. The variance, by contrast, decreases. A simple physical mechanism is proposed to explain the occurrence of increasing autocorrelation but not variance in the model when there is no approaching bifurcation. Additionally, a similar mechanism is shown to allow an increase in both indicators with no physically attainable bifurcation. This implies that relying on autocorrelation and variance as early warning signals can raise false alarms in the climate system, warning of "tipping points" that are not actually there.

  11. A Video Camera Road Sign System of the Early Warning from Collision with the Wild Animals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matuska Slavomir

    2016-05-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a camera road sign system of the early warning, which can help to avoid from vehicle collision with the wild animals. The system consists of camera modules placed down the particularly chosen route and the intelligent road signs. The camera module consists of the camera device and the computing unit. The video stream is captured from video camera using computing unit. Then the algorithms of object detection are deployed. Afterwards, the machine learning algorithms will be used to classify the moving objects. If the moving object is classified as animal and this animal can be dangerous for safety of the vehicle, warning will be displayed on the intelligent road sings.

  12. Diversity of Rainfall Thresholds for early warning of hydro-geological disasters

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. L. De Luca

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available For early warning of disasters induced by precipitation (such as floods and landslides, different kinds of rainfall thresholds are adopted, which vary from each other, on the basis on adopted hypotheses. In some cases, they represent the occurrence probability of an event (landslide or flood, in other cases the exceedance probability of a critical value for an assigned indicator I (a function of rainfall heights, and in further cases they only indicate the exceeding of a prefixed percentage a critical value for I, indicated as Icr. For each scheme, it is usual to define three different criticality levels (ordinary, moderate and severe, which are associated to warning levels, according to emergency plans. This work briefly discusses different schemes of rainfall thresholds, focusing attention on landslide prediction, with some applications to a real case study in Calabria region (southern Italy.

  13. Green's Function-Based Tsunami Data Assimilation: A Fast Data Assimilation Approach Toward Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yuchen; Satake, Kenji; Maeda, Takuto; Gusman, Aditya Riadi

    2017-10-01

    We propose a new tsunami data assimilation approach based on Green's functions to reduce the computation time for tsunami early warning. Green's Function-based Tsunami Data Assimilation (GFTDA) forecasts the waveforms at points of interest (PoIs) by superposition of Green's functions between observation stations and PoIs. Unlike the previous assimilation approach, GFTDA does not require the calculation of the tsunami wavefield for the whole region during the assimilation process, because the Green's functions have been calculated in advance. The forecasted waveforms can be calculated by a simple matrix manipulation. The application to the tsunami waveforms recorded by the bottom pressure gauges of the Cascadia Initiative from the 2012 Haida Gwaii earthquake reveals that GFTDA achieves the same accuracy as the previous assimilation approach while reducing the time required to issue a valid tsunami warning.

  14. Near real-time GPS applications for tsunami early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Falck

    2010-02-01

    Full Text Available GPS (Global Positioning System technology is widely used for positioning applications. Many of them have high requirements with respect to precision, reliability or fast product delivery, but usually not all at the same time as it is the case for early warning applications. The tasks for the GPS-based components within the GITEWS project (German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System, Rudloff et al., 2009 are to support the determination of sea levels (measured onshore and offshore and to detect co-seismic land mass displacements with the lowest possible latency (design goal: first reliable results after 5 min. The completed system was designed to fulfil these tasks in near real-time, rather than for scientific research requirements. The obtained data products (movements of GPS antennas are supporting the warning process in different ways. The measurements from GPS instruments on buoys allow the earliest possible detection or confirmation of tsunami waves on the ocean. Onshore GPS measurements are made collocated with tide gauges or seismological stations and give information about co-seismic land mass movements as recorded, e.g., during the great Sumatra-Andaman earthquake of 2004 (Subarya et al., 2006. This information is important to separate tsunami-caused sea height movements from apparent sea height changes at tide gauge locations (sensor station movement and also as additional information about earthquakes' mechanisms, as this is an essential information to predict a tsunami (Sobolev et al., 2007.

    This article gives an end-to-end overview of the GITEWS GPS-component system, from the GPS sensors (GPS receiver with GPS antenna and auxiliary systems, either onshore or offshore to the early warning centre displays. We describe how the GPS sensors have been installed, how they are operated and the methods used to collect, transfer and process the GPS data in near real-time. This includes the sensor system design, the communication

  15. Can binary early warning scores perform as well as standard early warning scores for discriminating a patient's risk of cardiac arrest, death or unanticipated intensive care unit admission?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarvis, Stuart; Kovacs, Caroline; Briggs, Jim; Meredith, Paul; Schmidt, Paul E; Featherstone, Peter I; Prytherch, David R; Smith, Gary B

    2015-08-01

    Although the weightings to be summed in an early warning score (EWS) calculation are small, calculation and other errors occur frequently, potentially impacting on hospital efficiency and patient care. Use of a simpler EWS has the potential to reduce errors. We truncated 36 published 'standard' EWSs so that, for each component, only two scores were possible: 0 when the standard EWS scored 0 and 1 when the standard EWS scored greater than 0. Using 1564,153 vital signs observation sets from 68,576 patient care episodes, we compared the discrimination (measured using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve--AUROC) of each standard EWS and its truncated 'binary' equivalent. The binary EWSs had lower AUROCs than the standard EWSs in most cases, although for some the difference was not significant. One system, the binary form of the National Early Warning System (NEWS), had significantly better discrimination than all standard EWSs, except for NEWS. Overall, Binary NEWS at a trigger value of 3 would detect as many adverse outcomes as are detected by NEWS using a trigger of 5, but would require a 15% higher triggering rate. The performance of Binary NEWS is only exceeded by that of standard NEWS. It may be that Binary NEWS, as a simplified system, can be used with fewer errors. However, its introduction could lead to significant increases in workload for ward and rapid response team staff. The balance between fewer errors and a potentially greater workload needs further investigation. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. An on-site alert level early warning system for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Alessandro; Colombelli, Simona; Elia, Luca; Zollo, Aldo

    2017-04-01

    An Earthquake Early Warning (EEW) system is a real-time seismic monitoring infrastructure that has the capability to provide warnings to target cities before the arrival of the strongest shaking waves. In order to provide a rapid alert when targets are very close to the epicenter of the events, we developed an on-site EEW approach and evaluated its performance at the nation-wide scale of Italy. We use a single-station, P-wave based method that measures in real-time two ground motion quantities along the early P-wave signal: the initial Peak Displacement (Pd) and the average period parameter (τc). In output, the system provides the predicted ground shaking intensity at the monitored site, the alert level (as defined by Zollo et al., 2010) and a qualitative classification of both earthquake magnitude and source-to-receiver distance. We applied the on-site EEW methodology to a dataset of Italian earthquakes, recorded by the Italian accelerometric network, with magnitude ranging from 3.8 to 6, and evaluated the performance of the system in terms of correct warning and lead-times (i.e., time available for security actions at the target). The results of this retrospective analysis show that, for the large majority of the analyzed cases, the method is able to deliver a correct warning shortly after the P-wave detection, with more than 80% of successful intensity predictions at the target site. The lead-times increase with distance, with a value of 2-6 seconds at 30 km, 8-10 seconds at 50 km and 15-18 seconds at 100 km.

  17. Enhancing Community Based Early Warning Systems in Nepal with Flood Forecasting Using Local and Global Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugar, Sumit; Smith, Paul; Parajuli, Binod; Khanal, Sonu; Brown, Sarah; Gautam, Dilip; Bhandari, Dinanath; Gurung, Gehendra; Shakya, Puja; Kharbuja, RamGopal; Uprety, Madhab

    2017-04-01

    Operationalising effective Flood Early Warning Systems (EWS) in developing countries like Nepal poses numerous challenges, with complex topography and geology, sparse network of river and rainfall gauging stations and diverse socio-economic conditions. Despite these challenges, simple real-time monitoring based EWSs have been in place for the past decade. A key constraint of these simple systems is the very limited lead time for response - as little as 2-3 hours, especially for rivers originating from steep mountainous catchments. Efforts to increase lead time for early warning are focusing on imbedding forecasts into the existing early warning systems. In 2016, the Nepal Department of Hydrology and Meteorology (DHM) piloted an operational Probabilistic Flood Forecasting Model in major river basins across Nepal. This comprised a low data approach to forecast water levels, developed jointly through a research/practitioner partnership with Lancaster University and WaterNumbers (UK) and the International NGO Practical Action. Using Data-Based Mechanistic Modelling (DBM) techniques, the model assimilated rainfall and water levels to generate localised hourly flood predictions, which are presented as probabilistic forecasts, increasing lead times from 2-3 hours to 7-8 hours. The Nepal DHM has simultaneously started utilizing forecasts from the Global Flood Awareness System (GLoFAS) that provides streamflow predictions at the global scale based upon distributed hydrological simulations using numerical ensemble weather forecasts from the ECMWF (European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts). The aforementioned global and local models have already affected the approach to early warning in Nepal, being operational during the 2016 monsoon in the West Rapti basin in Western Nepal. On 24 July 2016, GLoFAS hydrological forecasts for the West Rapti indicated a sharp rise in river discharge above 1500 m3/sec (equivalent to the river warning level at 5 meters) with 53

  18. Big data managing in a landslide early warning system: experience from a ground-based interferometric radar application

    Science.gov (United States)

    Intrieri, Emanuele; Bardi, Federica; Fanti, Riccardo; Gigli, Giovanni; Fidolini, Francesco; Casagli, Nicola; Costanzo, Sandra; Raffo, Antonio; Di Massa, Giuseppe; Capparelli, Giovanna; Versace, Pasquale

    2017-10-01

    A big challenge in terms or landslide risk mitigation is represented by increasing the resiliency of society exposed to the risk. Among the possible strategies with which to reach this goal, there is the implementation of early warning systems. This paper describes a procedure to improve early warning activities in areas affected by high landslide risk, such as those classified as critical infrastructures for their central role in society. This research is part of the project LEWIS (Landslides Early Warning Integrated System): An Integrated System for Landslide Monitoring, Early Warning and Risk Mitigation along Lifelines. LEWIS is composed of a susceptibility assessment methodology providing information for single points and areal monitoring systems, a data transmission network and a data collecting and processing center (DCPC), where readings from all monitoring systems and mathematical models converge and which sets the basis for warning and intervention activities. The aim of this paper is to show how logistic issues linked to advanced monitoring techniques, such as big data transfer and storing, can be dealt with compatibly with an early warning system. Therefore, we focus on the interaction between an areal monitoring tool (a ground-based interferometric radar) and the DCPC. By converting complex data into ASCII strings and through appropriate data cropping and average, and by implementing an algorithm for line-of-sight correction, we managed to reduce the data daily output without compromising the capability for performing.

  19. Slope Failure Prediction and Early Warning Awareness Education for Reducing Landslides Casualty in Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koay, S. P.; Tay, L. T.; Fukuoka, H.; Koyama, T.; Sakai, N.; Jamaludin, S. B.; Lateh, H.

    2015-12-01

    Northeast monsoon causes heavy rain in east coast of Peninsular Malaysia from November to March, every year. During this monsoon period, besides the happening of flood along east coast, landslides also causes millions of Malaysian Ringgit economical losses. Hence, it is essential to study the prediction of slope failure to prevent the casualty of landslides happening. In our study, we introduce prediction method of the accumulated rainfall affecting the stability of the slope. If the curve, in the graph, which is presented by rainfall intensity versus accumulated rainfall, crosses over the critical line, the condition of the slope is considered in high risk where the data are calculated and sent from rain gauge in the site via internet. If the possibility of slope failure is going high, the alert message will be sent out to the authorities for decision making on road block or setting the warning light at the road side. Besides road block and warning light, we propose to disseminate short message, to pre-registered mobile phone user, to notify the public for easing the traffic jam and avoiding unnecessary public panic. Prediction is not enough to prevent the casualty. Early warning awareness of the public is very important to reduce the casualty of landslides happening. IT technology does not only play a main role in disseminating information, early warning awareness education, by using IT technology, should be conducted, in schools, to give early warning awareness on natural hazard since childhood. Knowing the pass history on landslides occurrence will gain experience on the landslides happening. Landslides historical events with coordinate information are stored in database. The public can browse these historical events via internet. By referring to such historical landslides events, the public may know where did landslides happen before and the possibility of slope failure occurrence again is considered high. Simulation of rainfall induced slope failure mechanism

  20. Application of SOA (Service Oriented Architecture) in Early Warning Systems for Tsunamis and other Natural Hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The DEWS (Distant Early Warning System) [1] project, funded under the 6th Framework Programme of the European Union, has the target to create a new generation of interoperable early warning systems. Two major objectives have steered the development process: usage of free and open source software (FOSS) and compliance to the principles of a Service Oriented Architecture (SOA). The second objective was mainly driven by the superior ambition of the development of a generic early warning framework not only for tsunamis but also for other natural hazards. The development of a reference architecture enforced the clear separation between hazard-specific and generic functionality. Integration of sensor networks was realized with Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC) [2] Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) [3] services. Sensor types are relatively specific for different hazard types: while inundation sensors can be used both for tsunami and floodwater hazards, contamination meters requires a complete different semantic integration into the client application. Based on sensor measurements a simulation system supports the operator with forecasts to enable the dissemination of precise warning messages. The simulation integration was realized with the Web Processing Service (WPS) [4] but here again semantic integration is simulation specific and has to be realized inside the client application. In contrast the integration of Spatial Data Infrastructure (SDI) via Web Mapping Service (WMS) [5] and Web Feature Service (WFS) [6] to complete the situation report is independent from any hazard type and depends on the data availability and requirements of each warning centre. The downstream component - the message dissemination from the operator via information logistics to the dissemination channel endpoints - has been realized independently from any specific hazard type. Using the Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [7] and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) [8] enables the re-usage for all kind

  1. Early warning systems and rapid response to the deteriorating patient in hospital: A realist evaluation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGaughey, Jennifer; O'Halloran, Peter; Porter, Sam; Trinder, John; Blackwood, Bronagh

    2017-12-01

    To test the Rapid Response Systems programme theory against actual practice components of the Rapid Response Systems implemented to identify those contexts and mechanisms which have an impact on the successful achievement of desired outcomes in practice. Rapid Response Systems allow deteriorating patients to be recognized using Early Warning Systems, referred early via escalation protocols and managed at the bedside by competent staff. Realist evaluation. The research design was an embedded multiple case study approach of four wards in two hospitals in Northern Ireland which followed the principles of Realist Evaluation. We used various mixed methods including individual and focus group interviews, observation of nursing practice between June-November 2010 and document analysis of Early Warning Systems audit data between May-October 2010 and hospital acute care training records over 4.5 years from 2003-2008. Data were analysed using NiVivo8 and SPPS. A cross-case analysis highlighted similar patterns of factors which enabled or constrained successful recognition, referral and response to deteriorating patients in practice. Key enabling factors were the use of clinical judgement by experienced nurses and the empowerment of nurses as a result of organizational change associated with implementation of Early Warning System protocols. Key constraining factors were low staffing and inappropriate skill mix levels, rigid implementation of protocols and culturally embedded suboptimal communication processes. Successful implementation of Rapid Response Systems was dependent on adopting organizational and cultural changes that facilitated staff empowerment, flexible implementation of protocols and ongoing experiential learning. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  2. How did the earthquake early warning perform for the 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamada, M.; Nishimae, Y.

    2016-12-01

    The 2016 Kumamoto earthquakes are the sequence of two major earthquakes occurred in the Kumamoto, South part of Japan, in April 2016. The first earthquake occurred on April, 14 9:26pm with Mj6.5. The second and larger earthquake occurred 27 hours later, on April 16 1:25am with Mj 7.3. About 50 people were killed due to the collapse of housings and landslides. The Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) properly provided earthquake early warnings (EEW) for both earthquakes: the warning for the April 14 earthquake was issued at 4 seconds after the first P-wave detection, which is 8 seconds after the origin time. The warning for the April 16 earthquake was issued at 4 seconds after the first P-arrival, and 8.5 seconds after the origin time. The blind zone where EEW was not provided before S-wave arrival is about 25km from the epicenter. This range of blind zone is expected for inland earthquakes whose S-P time is relatively short, so the EEW system worked properly as it was designed. The estimated magnitude was 6.5 and 6.9, respectively, when the warning was reported to public, so the performance of the accuracy and speed was satisfactory. The EEW provided other 17 warnings for smaller earthquakes in Kumamoto prefecture in April 2016. 80% of the warnings (14/17) predicted the seismic intensity within plus-minus 1. However, three events overestimated the seismic intensity by more than 1 unit, and two events underestimated the intensity by more than 1 unit. For the underestimated cases, the magnitude was estimated reasonably well with the error less than 0.3, which suggests this underestimation was due to the error in either attenuation relationship or subsurface soil amplification. For the overestimated cases, the magnitude was also overestimated, which suggests the source estimation had a significant error due to multiple aftershocks. We try to improve this performance to the aftershocks by applying the integrated particle filter approach to the JMA strong motion and Hi

  3. Performance of the Obstetric Early Warning Score in critically ill patients for the prediction of maternal death.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paternina-Caicedo, Angel; Miranda, Jezid; Bourjeily, Ghada; Levinson, Andrew; Dueñas, Carmelo; Bello-Muñoz, Camilo; Rojas-Suarez, José A

    2017-01-01

    Every day, about 830 women die worldwide from preventable causes related to pregnancy and childbirth. Obstetric early warning scores have been proposed as a potential tool to reduce maternal morbidity and mortality, based on the identification of predetermined abnormal values in the vital signs or laboratory parameters, to generate a rapid and effective medical response. Several early warning scores have been developed for obstetrical patients, but the majority are the result of a clinical consensus rather than statistical analyses of clinical outcome measures (ie, maternal deaths). In 2013, the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center Case Mix Program reported the first statistically validated early warning scoring system for pregnant women. We sought to assess the performance of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Center Obstetric Early Warning Score in predicting death among pregnant women who required admission to the intensive care unit. This retrospective cohort study included pregnant women admitted to the intensive care unit at a tertiary referral center from January 2006 through December 2011 in Colombia, a developing country, with direct and indirect obstetric-related conditions. The Obstetric Early Warning Score was calculated based on data collected during the first 24 hours of intensive care unit admission. The Obstetric Early Warning Score is calculated based on values of the following variables: systolic and diastolic blood pressure, respiratory rate, heart rate, fraction of inspired oxygen (FiO2) required to maintain an oxygen saturation ≥96%, temperature, and level of consciousness. The performance of the Obstetric Early Warning Score was evaluated using the area under the receiver operator characteristic curve. Outcomes selected were: maternal death, need for mechanical ventilation, and/or vasoactive support. Statistical methods included distribution appropriate univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression

  4. Enough is not enough: Medical students’ knowledge of early warning signs of childhood cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jennifer Ann Geel

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Background. The reported incidence of childhood cancer in upper-middle-income South Africa (SA is much lower than in high-income countries, partly due to under-diagnosis and under-reporting. Documented survival rates are disturbingly low, prompting an analysis of potential factors that may be responsible. Objectives. To determine final-year medical students’ level of knowledge of early warning signs of childhood cancer and whether a correlation existed between test scores and participants’ age, gender and previous exposure to a person with cancer. Methods. A two-part questionnaire based on the Saint Siluan mnemonic, testing both recall and recognition of early warning signs of childhood cancer, was administered. The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was used to assess differences in continuous and count variables between demographic data, experience and responses, and Fisher’s exact test and Spearman’s rank correlation coefficient were used to determine correlations between demographic data, previous contact with persons with cancer and test scores. A novel equality ratio was calculated to compare the recall and recognition sections and allowed analysis of recall v. recognition. Results. The 84 participants recalled a median of six signs each (interquartile range 4 - 7 and correctly recognised a median of 70% in the recognition section, considered a pass mark. There was no correlation between participants’ age, gender, previous contact with a person with cancer and recognition scores. Students with previous exposure to a person with cancer had higher scores in the recall section, but this did not achieve statistical significance. Students were able to recognise more signs of haematological malignancies than central nervous system (CNS malignancies. Conclusion. The study demonstrated a marked inconsistency between recall and recognition of signs of childhood cancer, with signs of CNS malignancies being least recognised. However, the majority

  5. Enough is not enough: Medical students' knowledge of early warning signs of childhood cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geel, Jennifer Ann; Stevenson, Brent T; Jennings, Rebecca B; Krook, Lisa E; Winnan, Sinead J; Katz, Bracha T; Fox, T J; Nyati, Lukhanyo

    2017-06-30

    The reported incidence of childhood cancer in upper-middle-income South Africa (SA) is much lower than in high-income countries, partly due to under-diagnosis and under-reporting. Documented survival rates are disturbingly low, prompting an analysis of potential factors that may be responsible. To determine final-year medical students' level of knowledge of early warning signs of childhood cancer and whether a correlation existed between test scores and participants' age, gender and previous exposure to a person with cancer. A two-part questionnaire based on the Saint Siluan mnemonic, testing both recall and recognition of early warning signs of childhood cancer, was administered. The Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon test was used to assess differences in continuous and count variables between demographic data, experience and responses, and Fisher's exact test and Spearman's rank correlation coefficient were used to determine correlations between demographic data, previous contact with persons with cancer and test scores. A novel equality ratio was calculated to compare the recall and recognition sections and allowed analysis of recall v. recognition. The 84 participants recalled a median of six signs each (interquartile range 4 - 7) and correctly recognised a median of 70% in the recognition section, considered a pass mark. There was no correlation between participants' age, gender, previous contact with a person with cancer and recognition scores. Students with previous exposure to a person with cancer had higher scores in the recall section, but this did not achieve statistical significance. Students were able to recognise more signs of haematological malignancies than central nervous system (CNS) malignancies. The study demonstrated a marked inconsistency between recall and recognition of signs of childhood cancer, with signs of CNS malignancies being least recognised. However, the majority of students could recognise enough early warning signs to meet the university pass

  6. A combined method for high-speed rail seismic monitoring and early warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhigao Chen

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The ground motion characteristics include the strength, frequency spectrum and duration time. In China, the PGA (peak ground acceleration is commonly used in determination of whether an earthquake warning is necessary when the high-speed train is on the rail. This method has not given an earthquake early warning time, and it only considers the strength factor of an earthquake, so the system may release an alarm for the near and small earthquakes which are no destructive. The new alarm method reconciles the timeliness and stability. It issues a P wave warning when the system receives seismic wave first, which will make the train to decelerate. Then, the system will confirm whether the P wave alarm is correct using the joint alarm result of CAV (cumulative absolute velocity and PGA, and then take measures according to the result. The new method eliminates the interference from the near and small earthquakes, as well as the large and far earthquakes, and ensures the safety of the train when it is subjected to earthquakes. In this paper, we use seismic data to simulate the combined alarm of CAV and PGA, and then obtain the cumulative time of CAV and the time interval between CAV and PGA. Finally, we compare the new method with the double-station, earthquake monitoring alarm method which is currently used on China's high-speed rail, and find the new alarm method is better in the aspect of alarm timeliness.

  7. Early warning model based on correlated networks in global crude oil markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Jia-Wei; Xie, Wen-Jie; Jiang, Zhi-Qiang

    2018-01-01

    Applying network tools on predicting and warning the systemic risks provides a novel avenue to manage risks in financial markets. Here, we construct a series of global crude oil correlated networks based on the historical 57 oil prices covering a period from 1993 to 2012. Two systemic risk indicators are constructed based on the density and modularity of correlated networks. The local maximums of the risk indicators are found to have the ability to predict the trends of oil prices. In our sample periods, the indicator based on the network density sends five signals and the indicator based on the modularity index sends four signals. The four signals sent by both indicators are able to warn the drop of future oil prices and the signal only sent by the network density is followed by a huge rise of oil prices. Our results deepen the application of network measures on building early warning models of systemic risks and can be applied to predict the trends of future prices in financial markets.

  8. The Path Towards Public Earthquake Early Warning for the Western U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cochran, E. S.

    2016-12-01

    Seconds of advanced warning of imminent strong shaking from an earthquake underway can be used to trigger a range of automated responses to reduce losses and warn the public to take protective action. A prototype earthquake early warning (EEW) system has been in operation for the west coast of the United States since February 2016. Alerts produced by the EEW system, known as ShakeAlert, will be an additional product of the Advanced National Seismic System regional networks in California and the Pacific Northwest. ShakeAlert is operated by the U.S. Geological Survey and has been developed in close collaboration with partners at several universities, including UC Berkeley, Caltech, and University of Washington. The system is currently based on a set of algorithms that determine point source information (magnitude, location, and origin time) from real-time seismic data. This point source information can then be used to estimate expected ground shaking at a user's location and issue a warning or trigger an action if expected ground shaking exceeds a user-defined threshold. In this presentation, I describe the current system as well as ongoing developments, including seismic- and geodetic-based finite fault algorithms, an improved aggregator of alerts, and improvements to estimate expected ground-shaking levels. Additionally, I describe efforts to assess the performance of the system both in terms of how closely alerts match to catalog information and whether an appropriate action would have been initiated by an end user at a defined shaking threshold. Finally, I briefly describe issues related to alert distribution, as well as outcomes from pilot projects that are employing ShakeAlert messages and helping to define best practices for use of EEW in various sectors, e.g. emergency management, transportation, education, and others.

  9. Exploring the feasibility of a nationwide earthquake early warning system in Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Colombelli, S.; Elia, L.; Martino, C.

    2015-04-01

    When accompanied by appropriate training and preparedness of a population, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) are effective and viable tools for the real-time reduction of societal exposure to seismic events in metropolitan areas. The Italian Accelerometric Network, RAN, which consists of about 500 stations installed over all the active seismic zones, as well as many cities and strategic infrastructures in Italy, has the potential to serve as a nationwide early warning system. In this work, we present a feasibility study for a nationwide EEWS in Italy obtained by the integration of the RAN and the software platform PRobabilistic and Evolutionary early warning SysTem (PRESTo). The performance of the RAN-PRESTo EEWS is first assessed by testing it on real strong motion recordings of 40 of the largest earthquakes that have occurred during the last 10 years in Italy. Furthermore, we extend the analysis to regions that did not experience earthquakes by considering a nationwide grid of synthetic sources capable of generating Gutenberg-Richter sequences corresponding to the one adopted by the seismic hazard map of the Italian territory. Our results indicate that the RAN-PRESTo EEWS could theoretically provide for higher seismic hazard areas reliable alert messages within about 5 to 10 s and maximum lead times of about 25 s. In case of large events (M > 6.5), this amount of lead time would be sufficient for taking basic protective measures (e.g., duck and cover, move away from windows or equipment) in tens to hundreds of municipalities affected by large ground shaking.

  10. New early warning system for gravity-driven ruptures based on codetection of acoustic signal

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faillettaz, J.

    2016-12-01

    Gravity-driven rupture phenomena in natural media - e.g. landslide, rockfalls, snow or ice avalanches - represent an important class of natural hazards in mountainous regions. To protect the population against such events, a timely evacuation often constitutes the only effective way to secure the potentially endangered area. However, reliable prediction of imminence of such failure events remains challenging due to the nonlinear and complex nature of geological material failure hampered by inherent heterogeneity, unknown initial mechanical state, and complex load application (rainfall, temperature, etc.). Here, a simple method for real-time early warning that considers both the heterogeneity of natural media and characteristics of acoustic emissions attenuation is proposed. This new method capitalizes on codetection of elastic waves emanating from microcracks by multiple and spatially separated sensors. Event-codetection is considered as surrogate for large event size with more frequent codetected events (i.e., detected concurrently on more than one sensor) marking imminence of catastrophic failure. Simple numerical model based on a Fiber Bundle Model considering signal attenuation and hypothetical arrays of sensors confirms the early warning potential of codetection principles. Results suggest that although statistical properties of attenuated signal amplitude could lead to misleading results, monitoring the emergence of large events announcing impeding failure is possible even with attenuated signals depending on sensor network geometry and detection threshold. Preliminary application of the proposed method to acoustic emissions during failure of snow samples has confirmed the potential use of codetection as indicator for imminent failure at lab scale. The applicability of such simple and cheap early warning system is now investigated at a larger scale (hillslope). First results of such a pilot field experiment are presented and analysed.

  11. A Risk-Based Multi-Objective Optimization Concept for Early-Warning Monitoring Networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, F.; Loschko, M.; Nowak, W.

    2014-12-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs.In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations and the early warning time and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. A qualitative risk ranking is used to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. The unknown risk sources can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well.We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk sources and an extra category for the unknown ones. With that, early warning time and detection probability become individual objectives for each risk class. Thus, decision makers can identify monitoring networks which are valid for controlling the top risk sources, and evaluate the capabilities (or search for least-cost upgrade) to also cover moderate, tolerable and unknown risk sources. Monitoring networks which are valid for the remaining risk also cover all other risk sources but the early-warning time suffers.The data provided for the optimization algorithm are calculated in a preprocessing step by a flow and transport model. Uncertainties due to hydro(geo)logical phenomena are taken into account by Monte-Carlo simulations. To avoid numerical dispersion during the transport simulations we use the

  12. Validation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score in Hospitalized Pediatric Oncology and Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplant Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agulnik, Asya; Forbes, Peter W; Stenquist, Nicole; Rodriguez-Galindo, Carlos; Kleinman, Monica

    2016-04-01

    To evaluate the correlation of a Pediatric Early Warning Score with unplanned transfer to the PICU in hospitalized oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients. We performed a retrospective matched case-control study, comparing the highest documented Pediatric Early Warning Score within 24 hours prior to unplanned PICU transfers in hospitalized pediatric oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant patients between September 2011 and December 2013. Controls were patients who remained on the inpatient unit and were matched 2:1 using age, condition (oncology vs hematopoietic stem cell transplant), and length of hospital stay. Pediatric Early Warning Scores were documented by nursing staff at least every 4 hours as part of routine care. Need for transfer was determined by a PICU physician called to evaluate the patient. A large tertiary/quaternary free-standing academic children's hospital. One hundred ten hospitalized pediatric oncology patients (42 oncology, 68 hematopoietic stem cell transplant) requiring unplanned PICU transfer and 220 matched controls. None. Using the highest score in the 24 hours prior to transfer for cases and a matched time period for controls, the Pediatric Early Warning Score was highly correlated with the need for PICU transfer overall (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.96), and in the oncology and hematopoietic stem cell transplant groups individually (area under the receiver operating characteristic = 0.95 and 0.96, respectively). The difference in Pediatric Early Warning Score results between the cases and controls was noted as early as 24 hours prior to PICU admission. Seventeen patients died (15.4%). Patients with higher Pediatric Early Warning Scores prior to transfer had increased PICU mortality (p = 0.028) and length of stay (p = 0.004). We demonstrate that our institution's Pediatric Early Warning Score is highly correlated with the need for unplanned PICU transfer in hospitalized oncology and

  13. Application of Collocated GPS and Seismic Sensors to Earthquake Monitoring and Early Warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bofeng Guo

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation.

  14. Application of collocated GPS and seismic sensors to earthquake monitoring and early warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Xingxing; Zhang, Xiaohong; Guo, Bofeng

    2013-10-24

    We explore the use of collocated GPS and seismic sensors for earthquake monitoring and early warning. The GPS and seismic data collected during the 2011 Tohoku-Oki (Japan) and the 2010 El Mayor-Cucapah (Mexico) earthquakes are analyzed by using a tightly-coupled integration. The performance of the integrated results is validated by both time and frequency domain analysis. We detect the P-wave arrival and observe small-scale features of the movement from the integrated results and locate the epicenter. Meanwhile, permanent offsets are extracted from the integrated displacements highly accurately and used for reliable fault slip inversion and magnitude estimation.

  15. Space geodetic tools provide early warnings for earthquakes and volcanic eruptions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aoki, Yosuke

    2017-04-01

    Development of space geodetic techniques such as Global Navigation Satellite System and Synthetic Aperture Radar in last few decades allows us to monitor deformation of Earth's surface in unprecedented spatial and temporal resolution. These observations, combined with fast data transmission and quick data processing, enable us to quickly detect and locate earthquakes and volcanic eruptions and assess potential hazards such as strong earthquake shaking, tsunamis, and volcanic eruptions. These techniques thus are key parts of early warning systems, help identify some hazards before a cataclysmic event, and improve the response to the consequent damage.

  16. Evaluating and Improving the ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning Algorithm

    OpenAIRE

    Brown, Holly Moore

    2012-01-01

    Earthquake Alarm Systems, or ElarmS, is a network-based earthquake early warning (EEW) system developed in California. This dissertation concerns the transition of ElarmS from research prototype to production-grade code. We test ElarmS' performance for large earthquakes with an extensive dataset of large events from Japan. Using the Japanese dataset and results, we develop a statistical error model for the magnitude, location, and ground motion prediction algorithms. We adapt ElarmS to run co...

  17. Mandatory early warning scoring-implementation evaluated with a mixed-methods approach

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bunkenborg, Gitte; Poulsen, Ingrid; Samuelson, Karin

    2016-01-01

    AIM: The aim of this study was to evaluate adherence to an intervention optimizing in-hospital monitoring practice, by introducing early warning scoring (EWS) of vital parameters. BACKGROUND: Interventions comprising EWS systems reduce in-hospital mortality, but evaluation of adherence to such in...... modified EWS levels of 0, 2 or 4. The theme Motivation by clinical relevance and meaningfulness was identified as crucial to the implementation process. CONCLUSION: High adherence to an intervention may be strongly related to nurses' perceived clinical relevance of the intervention....

  18. Implementing early-warning indicators of HIV drug resistance in the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jack, Noreen; Ravasi, Giovanni; Schrooten, Ward; Sutherland, Donald; Ghidinelli, Massimo; Del Riego, Amalia

    2012-05-01

    A key component of the World Health Organization's (WHO's) Global HIV Drug Resistance (HIVDR) prevention and assessment strategy is to monitor HIVDR early-warning indicators (EWIs), which provide strategic information for HIVDR containment. The Pan American Health Organization (PAHO)/WHO supported implementation of HIVDR EWI monitoring in 16 Caribbean countries. Results from 15 countries were analyzed by year of patient initiation of antiretroviral therapy for the period 2005-2009. This report demonstrates the need for capacity-building to standardize prescribing practices and to strengthen adherence strategies and antiretroviral drug procurement management systems.

  19. An Early Warning and Monitoring System for Distributed Process Control Systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bach, K.R.

    This thesis describes an approach based on early warning and monitoring of system metrics and task deadlines in a distributed real-time system. The main reason for applying this, is the fact that while a system used for critical purposes can be checked formally pre-runtime for validity, there are......This thesis describes an approach based on early warning and monitoring of system metrics and task deadlines in a distributed real-time system. The main reason for applying this, is the fact that while a system used for critical purposes can be checked formally pre-runtime for validity...... in order to minimize hazardous impact on the environment controlled by the system. Such failures may stem from degraded system performance originating from parts of the operating system or applications not functioning properly because of poor design or indirectly by malfunctioning hardware also degrading...... overall (operating) system performance. We propose a scheme by which it is possible to monitor specific system metrics and task deadlines in order to detect abnormalities contained herein as early as possible at which time various "recovery" actions may be applied to correct the situation....

  20. Developing the Framework for an Early Warning System for Ebola based on Environmental Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dartevelle, Sebastien; Nguy-Robertson, Anthony; Bell, Jesse; Chretien, Jean-Paul

    2017-04-01

    The 2014-2016 Ebola outbreak in West Africa indicated that this lethal disease can become a National Security issue as it crossed boarders and taxed regional health care systems. Ebola symptoms are also similar to other endemic diseases. Thus, forewarning of its possible presence can alert local public health facilities and populations, and may thereby reduce response time. Early work by our group has identified local climate (e.g. temperature, precipitation) and vegetation health (e.g. remote sensing using normalized difference vegetation index, NDVI) variables as leading indicators to known historical Ebola outbreaks. The environmental stress placed on the system as it reaches a climatic tipping point provides optimal conditions for spillover of Ebola virus from the reservoir host (which is unknown but suspected to be bats) to humans. This work outlines a framework for an approach to provide early warning maps based on the present state of the environment. Time series data from Climate Forecast System ver. 2 and AVHRR and MODIS satellite sensors are the basis for the early warning models used. These maps can provide policy makers and local health care professionals timely information for disease surveillance and preparation for future Ebola outbreaks.

  1. Landslide monitoring and early warning systems in Lower Austria - current situation and new developments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thiebes, Benni; Glade, Thomas; Schweigl, Joachim; Jäger, Stefan; Canli, Ekrem

    2014-05-01

    Landslides represent significant hazards in the mountainous areas of Austria. The Regional Geological Surveys are responsible to inform and protect the population, and to mitigate damage to infrastructure. Efforts of the Regional Geological Survey of Lower Austria include detailed site investigations, the planning and installation of protective structures (e.g. rock fall nets) as well as preventive measures such as regional scale landslide susceptibility assessments. For potentially endangered areas, where protection works are not feasible or would simply be too costly, monitoring systems have been installed. However, these systems are dominantly not automatic and require regular field visits to take measurements. Therefore, it is difficult to establish any relation between initiating and controlling factors, thus to fully understand the underlying process mechanism which is essential for any early warning system. Consequently, the implementation of new state-of-the-art monitoring and early warning systems has been started. In this presentation, the design of four landslide monitoring and early warning systems is introduced. The investigated landslide process types include a deep-seated landslide, a rock fall site, a complex earth flow, and a debris flow catchment. The monitoring equipment was chosen depending on the landslide processes and their activity. It aims to allow for a detailed investigation of process mechanisms in relation to its triggers and for reliable prediction of future landslide activities. The deep-seated landslide will be investigated by manual and automatic inclinometers to get detailed insights into subsurface displacements. In addition, TDR sensors and a weather station will be employed to get a better understanding on the influence of rainfall on sub-surface hydrology. For the rockfall site, a wireless sensor network will be installed to get real-time information on acceleration and inclination of potentially unstable blocks. The movement

  2. Simulating Earthquake Early Warning Systems in the Classroom as a New Approach to Teaching Earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    D'Alessio, M. A.

    2010-12-01

    A discussion of P- and S-waves seems an ubiquitous part of studying earthquakes in the classroom. Textbooks from middle school through university level typically define the differences between the waves and illustrate the sense of motion. While many students successfully memorize the differences between wave types (often utilizing the first letter as a memory aide), textbooks rarely give tangible examples of how the two waves would "feel" to a person sitting on the ground. One reason for introducing the wave types is to explain how to calculate earthquake epicenters using seismograms and travel time charts -- very abstract representations of earthquakes. Even when the skill is mastered using paper-and-pencil activities or one of the excellent online interactive versions, locating an epicenter simply does not excite many of our students because it evokes little emotional impact, even in students located in earthquake-prone areas. Despite these limitations, huge numbers of students are mandated to complete the task. At the K-12 level, California requires that all students be able to locate earthquake epicenters in Grade 6; in New York, the skill is a required part of the Regent's Examination. Recent innovations in earthquake early warning systems around the globe give us the opportunity to address the same content standard, but with substantially more emotional impact on students. I outline a lesson about earthquakes focused on earthquake early warning systems. The introductory activities include video clips of actual earthquakes and emphasize the differences between the way P- and S-waves feel when they arrive (P arrives first, but is weaker). I include an introduction to the principle behind earthquake early warning (including a summary of possible uses of a few seconds warning about strong shaking) and show examples from Japan. Students go outdoors to simulate P-waves, S-waves, and occupants of two different cities who are talking to one another on cell phones

  3. Early warning scores generated in developed healthcare settings are not sufficient at predicting early mortality in Blantyre, Malawi : a prospective cohort study

    OpenAIRE

    Wheeler, India; Price, Charlotte L; Sitch, Alice; Banda, Peter; Kellett, John; Nyirenda, Mulinda; Rylance, Jamie

    2013-01-01

    Early warning scores (EWS) are widely used in well-resourced healthcare settings to identify patients at risk of mortality. The Modified Early Warning Score (MEWS) is a well-known EWS used comprehensively in the United Kingdom. The HOTEL score (Hypotension, Oxygen saturation, Temperature, ECG abnormality, Loss of independence) was developed and tested in a European cohort; however, its validity is unknown in resource limited settings. This study compared the performance of both scores and sug...

  4. The Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide in the Republic of Mauritius

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bogaard, Tom; de Lima Rego, Joao; Vatvani, Deepak; Virasami, Renganaden; Verlaan, Martin

    2016-04-01

    The Republic of Mauritius (ROM) is a group of islands in the South West of the Indian Ocean, consisting of the main islands of Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega and the archipelago of Saint Brandon. The ROM is particularly vulnerable to the adverse effects of climate change, especially in the coastal zone, where a convergence of accelerating sea level rise and increasing intensity of tropical cyclones is expected to result in considerable economic loss, humanitarian stresses, and environmental degradation. Storm surges and swell waves are expected to be aggravated through sea level rise and climate change effects on weather patterns. Adaptation to increased vulnerability requires a re-evaluation of existing preparedness measures. The focus of this project is on more effective preparedness and issuing of alerts developing a fully-automated Early-Warning System for incoming storm surge and tide, together with the Mauritius Meteorological Services and the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Centre (NDRRMC), such that coastal communities in Mauritius, Rodrigues and Agalega Islands are able to evacuate timely and safely in case of predicted extreme water levels. The Mauritius Early-Warning System for storm surge and tide was implemented using software from Deltares' Open-Source and free software Community. A set of five depth-averaged Delft3D-FLOW hydrodynamic models are run every six-hours with a forecast horizon of three days, simulating water levels along the coast of the three main islands. Two regional models of horizontal resolution 5km force the three detailed models of 500m resolution; all models are forced at the surface by the 0.25° NOAA/GFS meteorological forecasts. In addition, our Wind-Enhancement Scheme is used to blend detailed cyclone track bulletin's info with the larger-scale Numerical Weather Predictions. Measured data is retrieved near real-time from available Automatic Weather Stations. All these workflows are managed by the operational

  5. Developing a dengue early warning system using time series model: Case study in Tainan, Taiwan

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Xiao-Wei; Jan, Chyan-Deng; Wang, Ji-Shang

    2017-04-01

    Dengue fever (DF) is a climate-sensitive disease that has been emerging in southern regions of Taiwan over the past few decades, causing a significant health burden to affected areas. This study aims to propose a predictive model to implement an early warning system so as to enhance dengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. The Seasonal Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (SARIMA) model was used herein to forecast dengue cases. Temporal correlation between dengue incidences and climate variables were examined by Pearson correlation analysis and Cross-correlation tests in order to identify key determinants to be included as predictors. The dengue surveillance data between 2000 and 2009, as well as their respective climate variables were then used as inputs for the model. We validated the model by forecasting the number of dengue cases expected to occur each week between January 1, 2010 and December 31, 2015. In addition, we analyzed historical dengue trends and found that 25 cases occurring in one week was a trigger point that often led to a dengue outbreak. This threshold point was combined with the season-based framework put forth by the World Health Organization to create a more accurate epidemic threshold for a Tainan-specific warning system. A Seasonal ARIMA model with the general form: (1,0,5)(1,1,1)52 is identified as the most appropriate model based on lowest AIC, and was proven significant in the prediction of observed dengue cases. Based on the correlation coefficient, Lag-11 maximum 1-hr rainfall (r=0.319, Pdengue surveillance and control in Tainan, Taiwan. We conclude that this timely dengue early warning system will enable public health services to allocate limited resources more effectively, and public health officials to adjust dengue emergency response plans to their maximum capabilities.

  6. Implementation and evaluation of early gastroscopy for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs in Primary Care.

    Science.gov (United States)

    García-Alonso, Francisco Javier; Hernández Tejero, María; Rubio Benito, Elvira; Valer, Paz; Guerra, Iván; García Ceballos, Victoria Gema; Noguerol, Mar; Llinares, Victoria; Bermejo, Fernando

    2017-05-01

    Dyspepsia is a common disorder in both Primary (PC) and Specialised Care (SC). Gastroscopy is recommended at the start of the study if there are warning signs, although it is not always available in PC. We developed a pilot project establishing an early gastroscopy programme for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs in PC, subsequently extending it to the entire healthcare area. The aim was to evaluate the requirements, impact and opinion of this service at the PC level. Demographic, symptomatic and endoscopic variables on the patients referred to SC from the pilot centre were recorded. A satisfaction survey was conducted among the PC physicians. The one-year pilot study and the first year of implementation of the programme were evaluated. A total of 355 patients were included (median age 56.4 years; IQR 45.5-64.3); 61.2% (56.1-66.3%) were women. The waiting time for examination was 1.5 weeks (IQR 1.5-2.5). Gastroscopy was correctly indicated in 82.7% (78.4-86.3%) of patients. The median number of requests per month was 1.1 per 10,000 adults (range 0.8-1.6). Monthly referrals to SC clinics from the pilot centre fell by 11 subjects (95% CI 5.9-16) with respect to the previous median of 58 (IQR 48-64.5). Almost all those polled (98.4%) considered the programme useful in routine practice. The availability of an early gastroscopy programme in PC for patients with dyspepsia and warning signs reduced the number of referrals to SC. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier España, S.L.U., AEEH y AEG. All rights reserved.

  7. A comparative study of data-driven approaches for flood early warning in small catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzkes, Christine; Singer, Thomas; Wagner, Michael; Philipp, Andy; Kerl, Florian; Schütze, Niels

    2017-04-01

    Flood early warning for small catchments is a challenging task: As the basin response is fast, proper warning lead times strongly depend on precipitation forecasts which are subject to quantitative and spatial uncertainties. In addition, gauge data in small catchments is often sparse and therefore, the hydrological regime is hardly known. In presence of these uncertainties, the benefit of different model approaches in terms of their predictive quality and their transferability to ungauged catchments is in question. For investigating this issue, two data-driven model approaches of different complexity were developed and comparatively tested. The first model is an artificial neural network for flood forecasting, in particular a two-layer perceptron feedforward network. Precipitation and discharge here serve as forcing data. The second approach is a flood potential assessment procedure. Precipitation history and precipitation forecasts are classified based on threshold values from a precipitation analysis. From this, a score of flood potential is derived. For the model evaluation a quantile-based mapping procedure is used to assign the resulting scores to catchment-specific discharge values. The two model approaches have been tested on 50 catchments in Saxony, Germany, with areas ranging from 5 to 1000 km2. Two datasets of quantitative precipitation estimates - one from rain gauge measurements, one from radar measurements RADOLAN - and two datasets of quantitative precipitation forecasts - a probabilistic forecast based on expert knowledge Quantile Forecast and a numerical weather forecast COSMO-DE - are used as input data. Update cycles as well as lead times are varied within the tests. The model performance is evaluated using different statistical quality criteria. Based on a Leave-one-out cross-validation, the potential of model parameter transfer to ungauged catchments is examined. The large number and the wide range of considered catchments provide a

  8. Performance evaluation of the national early warning system for shallow landslides in Norway

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahl, Mads-Peter; Piciullo, Luca; Devoli, Graziella; Colleuille, Hervé; Calvello, Michele

    2017-04-01

    As a consequence of the increased number of rainfall-and snowmelt-induced landslides (debris flows, debris slides, debris avalanches and slush flows) occurring in Norway, a national landslide early warning system (EWS) has been developed for monitoring and forecasting the hydro-meteorological conditions potentially necessary of triggering slope failures. The system, operational since 2013, is managed by the Norwegian Water Resources and Energy Directorate (NVE) and has been designed in cooperation with the Norwegian Public Road Administration (SVV), the Norwegian National Rail Administration (JBV) and the Norwegian Meteorological Institute (MET). Decision-making in the EWS is based upon hazard threshold levels, hydro-meteorological and real-time landslide observations as well as landslide inventory and susceptibility maps. Hazard threshold levels have been obtained through statistical analyses of historical landslides and modelled hydro-meteorological parameters. Daily hydro-meteorological conditions such as rainfall, snowmelt, runoff, soil saturation, groundwater level and frost depth have been derived from a distributed version of the hydrological HBV-model. Two different landslide susceptibility maps are used as supportive data in deciding daily warning levels. Daily alerts are issued throughout the country considering variable warning zones. Warnings are issued once per day for the following 3 days with an update possibility later during the day according to the information gathered by the monitoring variables. The performance of the EWS has been evaluated applying the EDuMaP method. In particular, the performance of warnings issued in Western Norway, in the period 2013-2014 has been evaluated using two different landslide datasets. The best performance is obtained for the smallest and more accurate dataset. Different performance results may be observed as a function of changing the landslide density criterion, Lden(k), (i.e., thresholds considered to

  9. An Early Warning System from debris flows based on ground vibration monitoring data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arattano, Massimo; Coviello, Velio

    2015-04-01

    Among the different countermeasures that can be adopted for the mitigation of landslide hazard, Early Warning Systems (EWSs) are receiving an increasing attention. EWSs are the set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals and communities threatened by a hazard to appropriately act, in sufficient time, to reduce the possibility of harm or loss (UNEP, 2012). An EWS from debris flows can be classified into two main categories: advance and event EWSs. Advance EWSs predict the occurrence of a debris flow by monitoring hydro-meteorological conditions that may lead to its initiation. Despite their widespread adoption, these latter systems are prone to false alarms because they are heavily affected by bias between regional rainfall threshold and local conditions. Event EWSs, on the contrary, detect the occurrence of a debris flow when the process is already in progress. They usually rely on the use of algorithms for processing in real time the monitoring data. Their effectiveness depends on the reliability of those algorithms, which require long development and testing phases. A specific testing field for event EWSs has been equipped in the Gadria instrumented basin, located in the Eastern Italian Alps. A specifically designed monitoring unit capable to record data from different type of sensors and to implement aboard warning algorithms has been installed along a straight reach of the torrent. A flashing light, installed on the bank of the torrent, has been wired to this unit. The flashing light is framed by a fixed video camera that also shoots the passage of debris flows in the torrent. This provides a visual verification of the efficacy of the algorithm under test, particularly useful to show to practitioners and administrators a clear demonstration of the warning outcome. In this work, we present the performance of a warning algorithm that has been experimented in the Gadria testing field in 2013

  10. Population-based study of capsular warning syndrome and prognosis after early recurrent TIA.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paul, Nicola L M; Simoni, Michela; Chandratheva, Arvind; Rothwell, Peter M

    2012-09-25

    Many guidelines recommend emergency assessment for patients with ≥2 TIAs within 7 days, perhaps in recognition of the capsular warning syndrome. However, it is unclear whether all patients with multiple TIAs are at high early risk of stroke and whether treatable underlying pathologies are more prevalent in this group. We studied clinical characteristics, Trial of Org 10172 in Acute Stroke Treatment (TOAST) classification, and risk of stroke in 1,000 consecutive patients with incident and recurrent TIAs in a prospective, population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study). Of 1,000 patients with TIAs, 170 had a further TIA within 7 days (105 within 24 hours). Multiple TIAs were not associated with carotid stenosis or atrial fibrillation, and much of the 10.6 (95% confidence interval [CI] 6.5-15.9) risk of stroke during the 7 days after the first TIA was due to patients with small-vessel disease (SVD) etiology (10 of 24 vs 8 of 146, odds ratio [OR] = 12.3, 95% CI 3.7-41.9, p warning syndrome) compared with hemisensory events (9 of 15 [60%], 95% CI 35.3-84.7 vs 1 of 9 [11.1%], 95% CI 0-31.7, p = 0.03). The 7-day risk of stroke after a recurrent TIA was similar to the risk after a single TIA in patients with non-SVD TIA (8 of 146 [5.5%] vs 76 of 830 [9.2%], OR = 0.58, 95% CI 0.25-1.3, p = 0.20). Of the 9 patients with stroke after a capsular warning syndrome, all had the recurrent TIA within 24 hours after the first TIA, and the subsequent stroke occurred within 72 hours of the second TIA in 8. The ABCD2 scores of all preceding TIAs were ≥4 in all 9 patients with capsular warning syndrome before stroke. Capsular warning syndrome is rare (1.5% of TIA presentations) but has a poor prognosis (7-day stroke risk of 60%). Otherwise, recurrent TIA within 7 days is not associated with a greater stroke risk than that after a single TIA.

  11. [Evaluation and analysis of monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system in China].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, Xiaojun; Li, Tao; Liu, Mengxuan

    2015-06-01

    To evaluate the monitoring and early warning functions of the occupational disease reporting system right now in China, and to analyze their influencing factors. An improved audit tool (ODIT) was used to score the monitoring and early warning functions with a total score of 10. The nine indices were completeness of information on the reporting form, coverage of the reporting system, accessibility of criteria or guidelines for diagnosis, education and training for physicians, completeness of the reporting system, statistical methods, investigation of special cases, release of monitoring information, and release of early warning information. According to the evaluation, the occupational disease reporting system in China had a score of 5.5 in monitoring existing occupational diseases with a low score for release of monitoring information; the reporting system had a score of 6.5 in early warning of newly occurring occupational diseases with low scores for education and training for physicians as well as completeness of the reporting system. The occupational disease reporting system in China still does not have full function in monitoring and early warning. It is the education and participation of physicians from general hospitals in the diagnosis and treatment of occupational diseases and suspected occupational diseases that need to be enhanced. In addition, the problem of monitoring the incidence of occupational diseases needs to be solved as soon as possible.

  12. Surveillance of Dengue Fever Virus: A Review of Epidemiological Models and Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Racloz, Vanessa; Ramsey, Rebecca; Tong, Shilu; Hu, Wenbiao

    2012-01-01

    Dengue fever affects over a 100 million people annually hence is one of the world's most important vector-borne diseases. The transmission area of this disease continues to expand due to many direct and indirect factors linked to urban sprawl, increased travel and global warming. Current preventative measures include mosquito control programs, yet due to the complex nature of the disease and the increased importation risk along with the lack of efficient prophylactic measures, successful disease control and elimination is not realistic in the foreseeable future. Epidemiological models attempt to predict future outbreaks using information on the risk factors of the disease. Through a systematic literature review, this paper aims at analyzing the different modeling methods and their outputs in terms of acting as an early warning system. We found that many previous studies have not sufficiently accounted for the spatio-temporal features of the disease in the modeling process. Yet with advances in technology, the ability to incorporate such information as well as the socio-environmental aspect allowed for its use as an early warning system, albeit limited geographically to a local scale. PMID:22629476

  13. LIMITS OF SWOT ANALYSIS AND THEIR IMPACT ON DECISIONS IN EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florin POPESCU

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available SWOT (strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats analysis is useful in the decision-making process – crucial to any organization manager and/or strategist. This study aims to add value to the existing literature on SWOT, indicating its use and limitations, showing the need to link SWOT to other strategic tools and methodologies. As the current environment is turbulent and unpredictable, and economic cycles no longer comply with traditional rules, the precaution has become extremely important. That’s why SWOT should be supplemented with newer dynamic analysis capabilities and strategy tools, as early warning and opportunities system (EWOS, which can provide crucial inputs for scenario building, strategic thinking and decisions. EWOS is a novel approach based on three concepts that contribute to the ability of organization/project managers to develop outstanding capacity to "understand" and "benefit" in identifying opportunities and threats: (i business and competitive intelligence; (ii early warning thinking; (iii strategic thinking in decision making process. EWOS is of practical use for strategists and decision makers.

  14. Predicting Systemic Banking Crises Using Early Warning Models: The Case of Montenegro

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Asanović Željka

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available Very high costs of systemic banking crises emphasize the importance of early warning models for these crises. In order to create an early warning model for systemic banking crises a combined approach is implemented. The first approach applied in this paper is signal approach, however, with some modifications as compared with its standard application in the literature. On the basis of individual indicators two composite indices are created. Unlike other papers in this field, the author has chosen a 24-month period before the beginning of the crisis as a signal horizon, while the signal horizon in the literature is usually considered to be a period of 12 months before and 12 months after the crisis onset. The second approach represents logit model whereas the independent variables are actually the indicators with the best performances obtained within the signal approach. In order to check the robustness of indicators, the Bayesian model averaging technique is used. The indicator that represents the credit growth rate, besides being a part of the composite index, is statistically significant in all estimated specifications of the logit model, including the technique of Bayesian model averaging. Additionally, trends in the international market have a significant influence on the domestic banking system and its stability, and hence also on the probability of occurrence of a systemic banking crisis.

  15. Research on cost early warning of textile industry based on AC algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaolu Meng

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, the textile industry faces huge pressure domestically and internationally. With a small profit margin in the textile industry, it becomes very important to improve the economic efficiency and the cost management. Therefore, establishing an effective cost early warning system for the textile industry is necessary. The proposal of AC algorithm predicts the cost alert completely based on the historical data without estimating or assuming the future trend of the input variables in advance. Based on its advantages, the length of pattern (k is 2, 3, 4 or 5, and then we respectively build the cost early warning model. According to the results of comparison, the model with k =3 has the strongest predictive ability. The predictive error of the total cost is 1.8%, smaller than that of others. Then, this paper predicts the cost alert of the next five years by the model with k =3. The results show that the cost alert has certain volatility. Accordingly, we proposed some suggestions to cope with the crisis. This paper also provides references for the industry, government and relevant investors.

  16. Early warning score independently predicts adverse outcome and mortality in patients with acute pancreatitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Michael J; Neal, Christopher P; Ngu, Wee Sing; Dennison, Ashley R; Garcea, Giuseppe

    2017-08-01

    The aim of this study was to compare the prognostic value of established scoring systems with early warning scores in a large cohort of patients with acute pancreatitis. In patients presenting with acute pancreatitis, age, sex, American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) grade, Modified Glasgow Score, Ranson criteria, APACHE II scores and early warning score (EWS) were recorded for the first 72 h following admission. These variables were compared between survivors and non-survivors, between patients with mild/moderate and severe pancreatitis (based on the 2012 Atlanta Classification) and between patients with a favourable or adverse outcome. A total of 629 patients were identified. EWS was the best predictor of adverse outcome amongst all of the assessed variables (area under curve (AUC) values 0.81, 0.84 and 0.83 for days 1, 2 and 3, respectively) and was the most accurate predictor of mortality on both days 2 and 3 (AUC values of 0.88 and 0.89, respectively). Multivariable analysis revealed that an EWS ≥2 was independently associated with severity of pancreatitis, adverse outcome and mortality. This study confirms the usefulness of EWS in predicting the outcome of acute pancreatitis. It should become the mainstay of risk stratification in patients with acute pancreatitis.

  17. A topology visualization early warning distribution algorithm for large-scale network security incidents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hui; Fan, Guotao; Ye, Jianwei; Zhang, Weizhe

    2013-01-01

    It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system's emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks' damage, and strengthen the system's counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system's plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks' topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology.

  18. G-FAST Early Warning Potential for Great Earthquakes in Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crowell, B.; Schmidt, D. A.; Baker, B. I.; Bodin, P.; Vidale, J. E.

    2016-12-01

    The importance of GNSS-based earthquake early warning for modeling large earthquakes has been studied extensively over the past decade and several such systems are currently under development. In the Pacific Northwest, we have developed the G-FAST GNSS-based earthquake early warning module for eventual inclusion in the US West-Coast wide ShakeAlert system. We have also created a test system that allows us to replay past and synthetic earthquakes to identify problems with both the network architecture and the algorithms. Between 2010 and 2016, there have been seven M > 8 earthquakes across the globe, of which three struck offshore Chile; the 27 February 2010 Mw 8.8 Maule, the 1 April 2014 Mw 8.2 Iquique, and the 16 September 2015 Mw 8.3 Illapel. Subsequent to these events, the Chilean national GNSS network operated by the Centro Sismologico Nacional (http://www.sismologia.cl/) greatly expanded to over 150 continuous GNSS stations, providing the best recordings of great earthquakes with GNSS outside of Japan. Here we report on retrospective G-FAST performance for those three great earthquakes in Chile. We discuss the interplay of location errors, latency, and data completeness with respect to the precision and timing of G-FAST earthquake source alerts as well as the computational demands of the system.

  19. Design of early warning system for nuclear preparedness case study at Serpong

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farid, M. M.; Prawito, Susila, I. P.; Yuniarto, A.

    2017-07-01

    One effort to protect the environment from the increasing of potentially environmental radiation hazards as an impact of radiation discharge around nuclear facilities is by a continuous monitoring of the environmental radiation in real time It is important to disclose the dose rate information to public or authorities for radiological protection. In this research, we have designed a nuclear preparedness early warning system around the Serpong nuclear facility. The design is based on Arduino program, general packet radio service (GPRS) shield, and radio frequencies technology to transmit environmental radiation result of the measurement and meteorological data. Data was collected at a certain location at The Center for Informatics and Nuclear Strategic Zone Utilization BATAN Serpong. The system consistency models are defined by the quality of data and the level of radiation exposure in the deployed environment. Online users can access the website which displays the radiation dose on the environment marked on Google Map. This system is capable to issue an early warning emergency when the dose reaches three times of the background radiation exposure value, 250 nSv/hour.

  20. A Topology Visualization Early Warning Distribution Algorithm for Large-Scale Network Security Incidents

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui He

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system’s emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks’ damage, and strengthen the system’s counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system’s plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks’ topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology.

  1. A Topology Visualization Early Warning Distribution Algorithm for Large-Scale Network Security Incidents

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Hui; Fan, Guotao; Ye, Jianwei; Zhang, Weizhe

    2013-01-01

    It is of great significance to research the early warning system for large-scale network security incidents. It can improve the network system's emergency response capabilities, alleviate the cyber attacks' damage, and strengthen the system's counterattack ability. A comprehensive early warning system is presented in this paper, which combines active measurement and anomaly detection. The key visualization algorithm and technology of the system are mainly discussed. The large-scale network system's plane visualization is realized based on the divide and conquer thought. First, the topology of the large-scale network is divided into some small-scale networks by the MLkP/CR algorithm. Second, the sub graph plane visualization algorithm is applied to each small-scale network. Finally, the small-scale networks' topologies are combined into a topology based on the automatic distribution algorithm of force analysis. As the algorithm transforms the large-scale network topology plane visualization problem into a series of small-scale network topology plane visualization and distribution problems, it has higher parallelism and is able to handle the display of ultra-large-scale network topology. PMID:24191145

  2. Operational Earthquake Forecasting and Earthquake Early Warning: The Challenges of Introducing Scientific Innovations for Public Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goltz, J. D.

    2016-12-01

    Although variants of both earthquake early warning and short-term operational earthquake forecasting systems have been implemented or are now being implemented in some regions and nations, they have been slow to gain acceptance within the disciplines that produced them as well as among those for whom they were intended to assist. To accelerate the development and implementation of these technologies will require the cooperation and collaboration of multiple disciplines, some inside and others outside of academia. Seismologists, social scientists, emergency managers, elected officials and key opinion leaders from the media and public must be the participants in this process. Representatives of these groups come from both inside and outside of academia and represent very different organizational cultures, backgrounds and expectations for these systems, sometimes leading to serious disagreements and impediments to further development and implementation. This presentation will focus on examples of the emergence of earthquake early warning and operational earthquake forecasting systems in California, Japan and other regions and document the challenges confronted in the ongoing effort to improve seismic safety.

  3. Early warning epidemic surveillance in the Pacific island nations: an evaluation of the Pacific syndromic surveillance system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Craig, Adam T; Kama, Mike; Samo, Marcus; Vaai, Saine; Matanaicake, Jane; Joshua, Cynthia; Kolbe, Anthony; Durrheim, David N; Paterson, Beverley J; Biaukula, Viema; Nilles, Eric J

    2016-07-01

    The Pacific Syndromic Surveillance System (PSSS), launched in 2010, provides a simple mechanism by which 121 sentinel surveillance sites in 21 Pacific island countries and areas perform routine indicator- and event-based surveillance for the early detection of infectious disease outbreaks. This evaluation aims to assess whether the PSSS is meeting its objectives, what progress has been made since a formative evaluation of the system was conducted in 2011, and provides recommendations to enhance the PSSS's performance in the future. Twenty-one informant interviews were conducted with national operators of the system and regional public health agencies that use information generated by it. Historic PSSS data were analysed to assess timeliness and completeness of reporting. The system is simple, acceptable and useful for public health decision-makers. The PSSS has greatly enhanced Pacific island countries' ability to undertake early warning surveillance and has contributed to efforts to meet national surveillance-related International Health Regulation (2005) capacity development obligations. Despite this, issues with timeliness and completeness of reporting, data quality and system stability persist. A balance between maintaining the system's simplicity and technical advances will need to be found to ensure its long-term sustainability, given the low-resource context for which it is designed. © 2016 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  4. High Resolution Time Series of Plankton Communities: From Early Warning of Harmful Blooms to Sentinels of Climate Change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sosik, H. M.; Campbell, L.; Olson, R. J.

    2016-02-01

    The combination of ocean observatory infrastructure and automated submersible flow cytometry provides an unprecedented capability for sustained high resolution time series of plankton, including taxa that are harmful or early indicators of ecosystem response to environmental change. On-going time series produced with the FlowCytobot series of instruments document important ways this challenge is already being met for phytoplankton and microzooplankton. FlowCytobot and Imaging FlowCytobot use a combination of laser-based scattering and fluorescence measurements and video imaging of individual particles to enumerate and characterize cells ranging from picocyanobacteria to large chaining-forming diatoms. Over a decade of observations at the Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory (MVCO), a cabled facility on the New England Shelf, have been compiled from repeated instrument deployments, typically 6 months or longer in duration. These multi-year high resolution (hourly to daily) time series are providing new insights into dynamics of community structure such as blooms, seasonality, and multi-year trends linked to regional climate-related variables. Similar observations in Texas coastal waters at the Texas Observatory for Algal Succession Time series (TOAST) have repeatedly provided early warning of harmful algal bloom events that threaten human and ecosystem health. As coastal ocean observing systems mature and expand, the continued integration of these type of detailed observations of the plankton will provide unparalleled information about variability and patterns of change at the base of the marine food webs, with direct implications for informed ecosystem-based management.

  5. Improvements of the offshore earthquake locations in the Earthquake Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Ta-Yi; Hsu, Hsin-Chih

    2017-04-01

    Since 2014 the Earthworm Based Earthquake Alarm Reporting (eBEAR) system has been operated and been used to issue warnings to schools. In 2015 the system started to provide warnings to the public in Taiwan via television and the cell phone. Online performance of the eBEAR system indicated that the average reporting times afforded by the system are approximately 15 and 28 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively. The eBEAR system in average can provide more warning time than the current EEW system (3.2 s and 5.5 s for inland and offshore earthquakes, respectively). However, offshore earthquakes were usually located poorly because only P-wave arrivals were used in the eBEAR system. Additionally, in the early stage of the earthquake early warning system, only fewer stations are available. The poor station coverage may be a reason to answer why offshore earthquakes are difficult to locate accurately. In the Geiger's inversion procedure of earthquake location, we need to put an initial hypocenter and origin time into the location program. For the initial hypocenter, we defined some test locations on the offshore area instead of using the average of locations from triggered stations. We performed 20 programs concurrently running the Geiger's method with different pre-defined initial position to locate earthquakes. We assume that if the program with the pre-defined initial position is close to the true earthquake location, during the iteration procedure of the Geiger's method the processing time of this program should be less than others. The results show that using pre-defined locations for trial-hypocenter in the inversion procedure is able to improve the accurate of offshore earthquakes. Especially for EEW system, in the initial stage of the EEW system, only use 3 or 5 stations to locate earthquakes may lead to bad results because of poor station coverage. In this study, the pre-defined trial-locations provide a feasible way to improve the estimations of

  6. Paediatric early warning scores on a children's ward: a quality improvement initiative.

    LENUS (Irish Health Repository)

    Ennis, Linda

    2014-09-09

    The aim of this quality improvement initiative was to incorporate a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) and track and trigger system in the routine care of children in an acute general children\\'s ward at a regional hospital in the Republic of Ireland. In the absence of a nationally recommended specific PEWS strategy, a local plan was developed. The experience of structuring and implementing the PEWS and track and trigger system is presented in this article. Data from the first year of use were collected to evaluate the clinical utility and effectiveness of this system. In the busy acute children\\'s service, the PEWS initiative was found to benefit processes of early detection, prompt referral and timely, appropriate management of children at potential risk of clinical deterioration. Nursing staff were empowered and supported to communicate concerns immediately and to seek rapid medical review, according to an agreed PEWS escalation plan. Outcomes were significantly improved.

  7. Real-Time Surveillance in Emergencies Using the Early Warning Alert and Response Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cordes, Kristina M; Cookson, Susan T; Boyd, Andrew T; Hardy, Colleen; Malik, Mamunur Rahman; Mala, Peter; El Tahir, Khalid; Everard, Marthe; Jasiem, Mohamad; Husain, Farah

    2017-11-01

    Humanitarian emergencies often result in population displacement and increase the risk for transmission of communicable diseases. To address the increased risk for outbreaks during humanitarian emergencies, the World Health Organization developed the Early Warning Alert and Response Network (EWARN) for early detection of epidemic-prone diseases. The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has worked with the World Health Organization, ministries of health, and other partners to support EWARN through the implementation and evaluation of these systems and the development of standardized guidance. Although protocols have been developed for the implementation and evaluation of EWARN, a need persists for standardized training and additional guidance on supporting these systems remotely when access to affected areas is restricted. Continued collaboration between partners and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention for surveillance during emergencies is necessary to strengthen capacity and support global health security.

  8. Paediatric early warning scores on a children's ward: a quality improvement initiative.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ennis, Linda

    2014-09-01

    The aim of this quality improvement initiative was to incorporate a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) and track and trigger system in the routine care of children in an acute general children's ward at a regional hospital in the Republic of Ireland. In the absence of a nationally recommended specific PEWS strategy, a local plan was developed. The experience of structuring and implementing the PEWS and track and trigger system is presented in this article. Data from the first year of use were collected to evaluate the clinical utility and effectiveness of this system. In the busy acute children's service, the PEWS initiative was found to benefit processes of early detection, prompt referral and timely, appropriate management of children at potential risk of clinical deterioration. Nursing staff were empowered and supported to communicate concerns immediately and to seek rapid medical review, according to an agreed PEWS escalation plan. Outcomes were significantly improved.

  9. Early warnings of the potential for malaria transmission in Rural Africa using the Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Transmission Simulator (HYDREMATS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamana, T. K.; Eltahir, E. A.

    2010-12-01

    Early warnings of malaria transmission allow health officials to better prepare for future epidemics. Monitoring rainfall is recognized as an important part of malaria early warning systems, as outlined by the Roll Back Malaria Initiative. The Hydrology, Entomology and Malaria Simulator (HYDREMATS) is a mechanistic model that relates rainfall to malaria transmission, and could be used to provide early warnings of malaria epidemics. HYDREMATS is used to make predictions of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity for 2005, 2006, and 2007 in Banizoumbou village in western Niger. HYDREMATS is forced by observed rainfall, followed by a rainfall prediction based on the seasonal mean rainfall for a period two or four weeks into the future. Predictions made using this method provided reasonable estimates of mosquito populations and vectorial capacity, two to four weeks in advance. The predictions were significantly improved compared to those made when HYDREMATS was forced with seasonal mean rainfall alone.

  10. Perancangan Prototype Early Warning System pada Kontrol On/Off Belt Conveyor Menggunakan PLC Siemens S7-300

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taufik Taufik

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Nowadays, automation system become an important aspect of the manufacturing process because could make integration manufacturing process on it more effective and more efficient. PLC or Programmable Logic Controller is one kind of automation system. Many industries use PLC as automation control device in the manufacturing process to control all kind of process. For example at transportation process of coals in generator industry. Coals could be burned because main elements of coals are carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Base on this prototype early warning system design, we get the result if sensor thermocouple detects temperature larger than setpoint temperature (it is 2000C, then PLC will give an order to shut down the output, that is a belt conveyor. The result of this prototype design could use at coals transportation as an early warning system. The design of prototype early warning system could detect and prevent fire because of the consequence of burned coals until spreading of fire could be avoided.

  11. Application of FBG sensing technique for monitoring and early warning system of high-speed railway track conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongjia; Liu, Fang; Jing, Yuhai; Li, Weilai

    2017-04-01

    High-speed railway has achieved remarkable development in China, and safety monitoring of high-speed railway is becoming an important research. Fiber bragg grating (FBG) sensing technology is applied for monitoring and early warning system of high-speed railway track condition in this paper. The sensor network is built by putting FBG sensors on the high-speed rail tracks, which is necessary for real-time online monitoring of railway track temperature, displacement and strain. These different variables are collected, processed and analyzed by FBG demodulator. In addition, the railway track temperature prediction model are established based on relevance vector regression algorithm, which further improves the prediction accuracy and generalization performance. The system has been applied in the realtime online monitoring and early warning system of Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Hong Kong high-speed railway track condition. The system is running in good condition and playing an important role in early warning.

  12. Research and implement of remote vehicle monitoring and early-warning system based on GPS/GPRS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Shiwu; Tian, Jingjing; Yang, Zhifa; Qiao, Feiyan

    2013-03-01

    Concerning the problem of road traffic safety, remote monitoring and early-warning of vehicle states was the key to prevent road traffic accidents and improve the transportation effectiveness. Through the embedded development technology, a remote vehicle monitoring and early-warning system was developed based on UNO2170 industrial computer of Advantech with WinCE operating system using Embedded Visual C++ (EVC), which combined with multisensor data acquisition technology, global positioning system (GPS) and general packet radio service (GPRS). It achieved the remote monitoring and early-warning of commercial vehicle. This system was installed in a CA1046L2 light truck. Through many road tests, test results showed that the system reacted rapidly for abnormal vehicle states and had stable performance.

  13. [Results of applying a paediatric early warning score system as a healthcare quality improvement plan].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rivero-Martín, M J; Prieto-Martínez, S; García-Solano, M; Montilla-Pérez, M; Tena-Martín, E; Ballesteros-García, M M

    2016-06-01

    The aims of this study were to introduce a paediatric early warning score (PEWS) into our daily clinical practice, as well as to evaluate its ability to detect clinical deterioration in children admitted, and to train nursing staff to communicate the information and response effectively. An analysis was performed on the implementation of PEWS in the electronic health records of children (0-15 years) in our paediatric ward from February 2014 to September 2014. The maximum score was 6. Nursing staff reviewed scores >2, and if >3 medical and nursing staff reviewed it. Monitoring indicators: % of admissions with scoring; % of complete data capture; % of scores >3; % of scores >3 reviewed by medical staff, % of changes in treatment due to the warning system, and number of patients who needed Paediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) admission, or died without an increased warning score. The data were collected from all patients (931) admitted. The scale was measured 7,917 times, with 78.8% of them with complete data capture. Very few (1.9%) showed scores >3, and 14% of them with changes in clinical management (intensifying treatment or new diagnostic tests). One patient (scored 2) required PICU admission. There were no deaths. Parents or nursing staff concern was registered in 80% of cases. PEWS are useful to provide a standardised assessment of clinical status in the inpatient setting, using a unique scale and implementing data capture. Because of the lack of severe complications requiring PICU admission and deaths, we will have to use other data to evaluate these scales. Copyright © 2016 SECA. Published by Elsevier Espana. All rights reserved.

  14. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products Resident to the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, Joseph P.; Hargrove, William W.; Gasser, Gerald

    2013-01-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. Sometimes these have resulted in regionally evident disturbance progressions (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and have resulted in extensive forest overstory mortality. In addition to stand replacement disturbances, other forests are subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and varying types and intensities of ephemeral damage from storms. Sometimes, after prolonged severe disturbance, signs of recovery in terms of Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) can occur. The growing prominence and threat of forest disturbances in part have led to the formation and implementation of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act which mandated that national forest threat early warning system be developed and deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oakridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build and roll-out the near real time ForWarn early warning system for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines that are used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six forest change products that are refreshed every 8 days. ForWarn employs daily quarter kilometer MODIS NDVI data from the Aqua and Terra satellites, including MOD13 data for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS 7 NDVI for compiling current NDVI. In doing so, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally de-noise, fuse, and aggregate current and historical MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of products per year. The 24 day compositing interval enables disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. Forest change products are

  15. Building Better Drought Resilience Through Improved Monitoring and Early Warning: Learning From Stakeholders in Europe, the USA, and Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stahl, K.; Hannaford, J.; Bachmair, S.; Tijdeman, E.; Collins, K.; Svoboda, M.; Knutson, C. L.; Wall, N.; Smith, K. H.; Bernadt, T.; Crossman, N. D.; Overton, I. C.; Barker, L. J.; Acreman, M. C.

    2016-12-01

    With climate projections suggesting that droughts will intensify in many regions in future, improved drought risk management may reduce potential threats to freshwater security across the globe. One aspect that has been called for in this respect is an improvement of the linkage of drought monitoring and early warning, which currently focuses largely on indicators from meteorology and hydrology, to drought impacts on environment and society. However, a survey of existing monitoring and early warning systems globally, that we report on in this contribution, demonstrates that although impacts are being monitored, there is limited work, and certainly little consensus, on how to best achieve this linkage. The Belmont Forum project DrIVER (Drought impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and early-warning research) carried out a number of stakeholder workshops in North America, Europe and Australia to elaborate on options for such improvements. A first round of workshops explored current drought management practices among a very diverse range of stakeholders, and their expectations from monitoring and early warning systems (particularly regarding impact characterization). The workshops revealed some disconnects between the indices used in the public early warning systems and those used by local decision-makers, e.g. to trigger drought measures. Follow-up workshops then explored how the links between information at these different scales can be bridged and applied. Impact information plays a key role in this task. This contribution draws on the lessons learned from the transdisciplinary interactions in DrIVER, to enhance the usability of drought monitoring and early-warning systems and other risk management strategies.

  16. TRIDEC Cloud - a Web-based Platform for Tsunami Early Warning tested with NEAMWave14 Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammitzsch, Martin; Spazier, Johannes; Reißland, Sven; Necmioglu, Ocal; Comoglu, Mustafa; Ozer Sozdinler, Ceren; Carrilho, Fernando; Wächter, Joachim

    2015-04-01

    In times of cloud computing and ubiquitous computing the use of concepts and paradigms introduced by information and communications technology (ICT) have to be considered even for early warning systems (EWS). Based on the experiences and the knowledge gained in research projects new technologies are exploited to implement a cloud-based and web-based platform - the TRIDEC Cloud - to open up new prospects for EWS. The platform in its current version addresses tsunami early warning and mitigation. It merges several complementary external and in-house cloud-based services for instant tsunami propagation calculations and automated background computation with graphics processing units (GPU), for web-mapping of hazard specific geospatial data, and for serving relevant functionality to handle, share, and communicate threat specific information in a collaborative and distributed environment. The TRIDEC Cloud can be accessed in two different modes, the monitoring mode and the exercise-and-training mode. The monitoring mode provides important functionality required to act in a real event. So far, the monitoring mode integrates historic and real-time sea level data and latest earthquake information. The integration of sources is supported by a simple and secure interface. The exercise and training mode enables training and exercises with virtual scenarios. This mode disconnects real world systems and connects with a virtual environment that receives virtual earthquake information and virtual sea level data re-played by a scenario player. Thus operators and other stakeholders are able to train skills and prepare for real events and large exercises. The GFZ German Research Centre for Geosciences (GFZ), the Kandilli Observatory and Earthquake Research Institute (KOERI), and the Portuguese Institute for the Sea and Atmosphere (IPMA) have used the opportunity provided by NEAMWave14 to test the TRIDEC Cloud as a collaborative activity based on previous partnership and commitments at

  17. Early warning and prevention of pneumonia in acute leukemia by patient education, spirometry, and positive expiratory pressure

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller, Tom; Moser, Claus; Adamsen, Lis

    2016-01-01

    fever, emphasizing the need to approach infection protection with complementary efforts. In a randomized controlled design, we examined the applicability of patient-performed daily spirometry [forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1)] as an early warning tool and explored the effectiveness...... in their continuous daily measurement of FEV1 and use of PEP. Daily measures of FEV1 may be an important early warning tool for assessment of pulmonary deterioration during critical phases of neutropenia. We suggest that strategic patient education in the use of spirometry and PEP should be part of standard of care...

  18. Toward Global Drought Early Warning Capability - Expanding International Cooperation for the Development of a Framework for Monitoring and Forecasting

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pozzi, Will; Sheffield, Justin; Stefanski, Robert; Cripe, Douglas; Pulwarty, Roger; Vogt, Jurgen V.; Heim, Richard R., Jr.; Brewer, Michael J.; Svoboda, Mark; Westerhoff, Rogier; hide

    2013-01-01

    Drought has had a significant impact on civilization throughout history in terms of reductions in agricultural productivity, potable water supply, and economic activity, and in extreme cases this has led to famine. Every continent has semiarid areas, which are especially vulnerable to drought. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change has noted that average annual river runoff and water availability are projected to decrease by 10 percent-13 percent over some dry and semiarid regions in mid and low latitudes, increasing the frequency, intensity, and duration of drought, along with its associated impacts. The sheer magnitude of the problem demands efforts to reduce vulnerability to drought by moving away from the reactive, crisis management approach of the past toward a more proactive, risk management approach that is centered on reducing vulnerability to drought as much as possible while providing early warning of evolving drought conditions and possible impacts. Many countries, unfortunately, do not have adequate resources to provide early warning, but require outside support to provide the necessary early warning information for risk management. Furthermore, in an interconnected world, the need for information on a global scale is crucial for understanding the prospect of declines in agricultural productivity and associated impacts on food prices, food security, and potential for civil conflict. This paper highlights the recent progress made toward a Global Drought Early Warning Monitoring Framework (GDEWF), an underlying partnership and framework, along with its Global Drought Early Warning System (GDEWS), which is its interoperable information system, and the organizations that have begun working together to make it a reality. The GDEWF aims to improve existing regional and national drought monitoring and forecasting capabilities by adding a global component, facilitating continental monitoring and forecasting (where lacking), and improving these tools at

  19. Can the prehospital National Early Warning Score identify patients most at risk from subsequent deterioration?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shaw, Joanna; Fothergill, Rachael T; Clark, Sophie; Moore, Fionna

    2017-08-01

    The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) aids the early recognition of those at risk of becoming critically ill. NEWS has been recommended for use by ambulance services, but very little work has been undertaken to date to determine its suitability. This paper examines whether a prehospital NEWS derived from ambulance service clinical observations is associated with the hospital ED disposition. Prehospital NEWS was retrospectively calculated from the ambulance service clinical records of 287 patients who were treated by the ambulance service and transported to hospital. In this cohort study, derived NEWS scores were compared with ED disposition data and patients were categorised into the following groups depending on their outcome: discharged from ED, admitted to a ward, admitted to intensive therapy unit (ITU) or died. Prehospital NEWS-based ambulance service clinical observations were significantly associated with discharge disposition groups (pscores escalating in line with increasing severity of outcome. Patients who died or were admitted to ITU had higher scores than those admitted to a ward or discharged from ED (mean NEWS 7.2 and 7.5 vs 2.6 and 1.7, respectively), and in turn those who were admitted to a ward had higher pre-hospital NEWS than those who were discharged (2.6 vs 1.7). Our findings suggest that the NEWS could successfully be used by ambulance services to identify patients most at risk from subsequent deterioration. The implementation of this early warning system has the potential to support ambulance clinician decision making, providing an additional tool to identify and appropriately escalate care for acutely unwell patients. © Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.

  20. Monitoring Regional Forest Disturbances across the US with Near Real Time MODIS NDVI Products included in the ForWarn Forest Threat Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spruce, J.; Hargrove, W. W.; Gasser, J.; Norman, S. P.

    2013-12-01

    Forest threats across the US have become increasingly evident in recent years. These include regionally extensive disturbances (e.g., from drought, bark beetle outbreaks, and wildfires) that can occur across multiyear durations and result in extensive forest mortality. In addition, forests can be subject to ephemeral, sometimes yearly defoliation from various insects and types of storm damage. After prolonged severe disturbance, signs of forest recovery can vary in terms of satellite-based Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values. The increased extent and threat of forest disturbances in part led to the enactment of the 2003 Healthy Forest Restoration Act, which mandated that a national forest threat Early Warning System (EWS) be deployed. In response, the US Forest Service collaborated with NASA, DOE Oak Ridge National Laboratory, and the USGS Eros Data Center to build the near real time ForWarn forest threat EWS for monitoring regionally evident forest disturbances, starting on-line operations in 2010. Given the diversity of disturbance types, severities, and durations, ForWarn employs multiple historical baselines used with current NDVI to derive a suite of six nationwide 'weekly' forest change products. ForWarn uses daily 232 meter MODIS Aqua and Terra satellite NDVI data, including MOD13 products for deriving historical baseline NDVIs and eMODIS products for compiling current NDVI. Separately pre-processing the current and historical NDVIs, the Time Series Product Tool and the Phenological Parameters Estimation Tool are used to temporally reduce noise, fuse, and aggregate MODIS NDVIs into 24 day composites refreshed every 8 days with 46 dates of forest change products per year. The 24 day compositing interval typically enables new disturbances to be detected, while minimizing the frequency of residual atmospheric contamination. ForWarn's three standard forest change products compare current NDVI to that from the previous year, previous 3 years, and

  1. GloFAS – global ensemble streamflow forecasting and flood early warning

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Alfieri

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Anticipation and preparedness for large-scale flood events have a key role in mitigating their impact and optimizing the strategic planning of water resources. Although several developed countries have well-established systems for river monitoring and flood early warning, figures of populations affected every year by floods in developing countries are unsettling. This paper presents the Global Flood Awareness System (GloFAS, which has been set up to provide an overview on upcoming floods in large world river basins. GloFAS is based on distributed hydrological simulation of numerical ensemble weather predictions with global coverage. Streamflow forecasts are compared statistically to climatological simulations to detect probabilistic exceedance of warning thresholds. In this article, the system setup is described, together with an evaluation of its performance over a two-year test period and a qualitative analysis of a case study for the Pakistan flood, in summer 2010. It is shown that hazardous events in large river basins can be skilfully detected with a forecast horizon of up to 1 month. In addition, results suggest that an accurate simulation of initial model conditions and an improved parameterization of the hydrological model are key components to reproduce accurately the streamflow variability in the many different runoff regimes of the earth.

  2. Local Facilitation May Cause Tipping Points on a Landscape Level Preceded by Early-Warning Indicators.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Chi; Van Nes, Egbert H; Holmgren, Milena; Kéfi, Sonia; Scheffer, Marten

    2015-10-01

    Positive biotic interactions play a significant role in shaping ecological communities. We used an individual-based model to demonstrate that plant facilitation on a microscale may cause ecosystem shifts on a landscape scale that can be announced by generic early-warning indicators. Recruitment of woody plants in harsh environments such as drylands often depends on nurse plants that ameliorate stressful conditions and facilitate the establishment of seedlings under their canopy. We found that these facilitative interactions may cause a treeless and a woodland state to be alternative stable states on a landscape scale if nurse plant effects are strong and if the environment is harsh enough to make facilitation necessary for seedling survival. A corollary is that under such conditions environmental change can bring drylands to tipping points for woody plant encroachment or woodland collapse. We show that the proximity of tipping points may be indicated by slowness of recovery of woody vegetation cover from small perturbations as well as by elevated temporal and spatial autocorrelation and variance. These signs are known to be indicators of critical slowing down. This is the first demonstration that the systemic phenomena of tipping points, announced by critical slowing down as a warning signal, may plausibly arise from microscale individual interactions, such as plant facilitation.

  3. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) adaption in National Early Warning Alerting Systems of China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Chao

    2017-04-01

    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In China, from local communities to entire nations, there was a patchwork of specialized hazard public alerting systems. And each system was often designed just for certain emergency situations and for certain communications media. Application took place in the NEWAS (National Early Warning Alerting Systems) [2]project where CAP serves as central message to integrate all kind of hazard situations, including the natural calamity, accident disaster, public health emergency , social safety etc. Officially operated on May 2015, NEWAS now has completed docking work with 14 departments including civil administration, safety supervision, forestry, land, water conservancy, earthquake, traffic, meteorology, agriculture, tourism, food and drug supervision, public security and oceanic administration. Thus, several items in CAP has been modified, redefined and extended according to the various grading standards and publishing strategies, as well as the characteristics of Chinese Geocoding. NEWAS successfully delivers information to end users through 4 levels (i.e. State, province, prefecture and county) structure and by various means. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] http://www.12379.cn/

  4. The value of real-time GNSS to earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruhl, C. J.; Melgar, D.; Grapenthin, R.; Allen, R. M.

    2017-08-01

    Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS)-based earthquake early warning (EEW) algorithms estimate fault finiteness and unsaturated moment magnitude for the largest, most damaging earthquakes. Because large events are infrequent, algorithms are not regularly exercised and insufficiently tested on few available data sets. We use 1300 realistic, time-dependent, synthetic earthquakes on the Cascadia megathrust to rigorously test the Geodetic Alarm System. Solutions are reliable once six GNSS stations report static offsets, which we require for a "first alert." Median magnitude and length errors are -0.15 ± 0.24 units and -31 ± 40% for the first alert, and -0.04 ± 0.11 units and +7 ± 31% for the final solution. We perform a coupled test of a seismic-geodetic EEW system using synthetic waveforms for a Mw8.7 scenario. Seismic point-source solutions result in severely underestimated peak ground acceleration. Geodetic finite-fault solutions provide more accurate predictions at larger distances, thus increasing warning times. Hence, GNSS observations are essential in EEW to accurately characterize large (out-of-network) events and correctly predict ground motion.

  5. MyShake: A smartphone seismic network for earthquake early warning and beyond.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kong, Qingkai; Allen, Richard M; Schreier, Louis; Kwon, Young-Woo

    2016-02-01

    Large magnitude earthquakes in urban environments continue to kill and injure tens to hundreds of thousands of people, inflicting lasting societal and economic disasters. Earthquake early warning (EEW) provides seconds to minutes of warning, allowing people to move to safe zones and automated slowdown and shutdown of transit and other machinery. The handful of EEW systems operating around the world use traditional seismic and geodetic networks that exist only in a few nations. Smartphones are much more prevalent than traditional networks and contain accelerometers that can also be used to detect earthquakes. We report on the development of a new type of seismic system, MyShake, that harnesses personal/private smartphone sensors to collect data and analyze earthquakes. We show that smartphones can record magnitude 5 earthquakes at distances of 10 km or less and develop an on-phone detection capability to separate earthquakes from other everyday shakes. Our proof-of-concept system then collects earthquake data at a central site where a network detection algorithm confirms that an earthquake is under way and estimates the location and magnitude in real time. This information can then be used to issue an alert of forthcoming ground shaking. MyShake could be used to enhance EEW in regions with traditional networks and could provide the only EEW capability in regions without. In addition, the seismic waveforms recorded could be used to deliver rapid microseism maps, study impacts on buildings, and possibly image shallow earth structure and earthquake rupture kinematics.

  6. A General Introduction of the Earthquake Early Warning System Technology Developed in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, T.

    2015-12-01

    Since the Wenchuan earthquake in 2008, a dramatic progress on earthquake early warning (EEW) has been made by Institute of Care-life (ICL) in China. The research on EEW by ICL covers choosing appropriate sensors, methods of installing the sensors, data automatic process methods of the seismic waves for EEW, methods of applying of EEW warnings for public, schools and life-line projects. ICL innovatively applies distributed computing and cloud computing technology. So far, ICL has deployed over 5500 EEW sensors in China, which is 5 times the number of EEW sensors in Japan, covering more than 2.1 million square kilometers. Since June, 2011, over 5000 earthquakes, with 28 of them are destructive quakes, have triggered the EEWS with no false alert. The root mean square (RMS) error of the magnitude for the 28 destructive quakes is 0.32. In addition, innovative work is done to suppress false alarm and miss alarm, which pushes forward the application of EEW in China. The technology is also being applied in Nepal now.

  7. A Feasibility Study for Earthquake Early Warning in a School in Southern Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, A.; Martino, C.; Picozzi, M.; Zollo, A.; Elia, L.; Festa, G.; Colombelli, S.; Caruso, A.; Brondi, P.; Miranda, N.

    2015-12-01

    We present the results of a feasibility study on the application of earthquake early-warning procedures in the high school ITIS E. Majorana, Somma Vesuviana, Naples, located about 80 km far from the seismogenic Irpinia region. The study was performed in the framework of the European REAKT project. The school was equipped with an EEWS composed of: a small seismic network of accelerometers, the PRESToPlus software platform, and an actuator, named Sentinel. The Sentinel is made up of low-cost hardware (i.e., Arduino®) programmed to accomplish three main tasks: 1) listen and interpret messages delivered by the EEW system PRESToPlus on the ground motion severity expected at the target site; 2) provides different warnings as alert levels by the control of different hardware (i.e., alarm bells, emergency lights, and so on); 3) declare the end of the most threatening condition, which will assist the emergency coordinator starting the evacuation plan defined by the current legislation. The Sentinel was developed within REAKT in close collaboration with the students and the teachers of the school. The EEW system and the Sentinel were successfully tested during some blind drills performed during normal school activities.

  8. A Prototype Flood Early Warning SensorWeb System for Namibia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sohlberg, R. A.; Mandl, D.; Frye, S. W.; Cappelaere, P. G.; Szarzynski, J.; Policelli, F.; van Langenhove, G.

    2010-12-01

    During the past two years, there have been extensive floods in the country of Namibia, Africa which have affected up to a quarter of the population. Via a collaboration between a group funded by the Earth Science Technology Office (ESTO) at NASA that has been performing various SensorWeb prototyping activities for disasters, the Department of Hydrology in Namibia and the United Nations Space-based Information for Disaster and Emergency Response (UN-SPIDER) , experiments were conducted on how to apply various satellite resources integrated into a SensorWeb architecture along with in-situ sensors such as river gauges and rain gauges into a flood early warning system. The SensorWeb includes a global flood model and a higher resolution basin specific flood model. Furthermore, flood extent and status is monitored by optical and radar types of satellites and integrated via some automation. We have taken a practical approach to find out how to create a working system by selectively using the components that provide good results. The vision for the future is to combine this with the country side dwelling unit data base to create risk maps that provide specific warnings to houses within high risk areas based on near term predictions. This presentation will show some of the highlights of the effort thus far plus our future plans.

  9. It's time for Canadian community early warning systems for illicit drug overdoses

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marsh David C

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Although fatal and non-fatal overdoses represent a significant source of morbidity and mortality, current systems of surveillance and communication in Canada provide inadequate measurement of drug trends and lack a timely response to drug-related hazards. In order for an effective early warning system for illicit drug overdoses to become a reality, a number of elements will be required: real-time epidemiologic surveillance systems for illicit drug trends and overdoses, inter-agency networks for gathering data and disseminating alerts, and mechanisms for effectively and respectfully engaging with members of drug using communities. An overdose warning system in an urban area like Vancouver would ideally be imbedded within a system that monitors drug trends and overdoses by incorporating qualitative and quantitative information obtained from multiple sources. Valuable information may be collected and disseminated through community organizations and services associated with public health, emergency health services, law enforcement, medical laboratories, emergency departments, community-based organizations, research institutions and people with addiction themselves. The present paper outlines considerations and conceptual elements required to guide implementation of such systems in Canadian cities such as Vancouver.

  10. Snow accumulation/melting model (SAMM for integrated use in regional scale landslide early warning systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Martelloni

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We propose a simple snow accumulation/melting model (SAMM to be applied at regional scale in conjunction with landslide warning systems based on empirical rainfall thresholds. SAMM is based on two modules modelling the snow accumulation and the snowmelt processes. Each module is composed by two equations: a conservation of mass equation is solved to model snowpack thickness and an empirical equation for the snow density. The model depends on 13 empirical parameters, whose optimal values were defined with an optimisation algorithm (simplex flexible using calibration measures of snowpack thickness. From an operational point of view, SAMM uses as input data only temperature and rainfall measurements, bringing about the additional benefit of a relatively easy implementation. After performing a cross validation and a comparison with two simpler temperature index models, we simulated an operational employment in a regional scale landslide early warning system (EWS and we found that the EWS forecasting effectiveness was substantially improved when used in conjunction with SAMM.

  11. Evaluation of Passive Samplers as a Monitoring Tool for Early Warning of Dinophysis Toxins in Shellfish

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pizarro, Gemita; Moroño, Ángeles; Paz, Beatriz; Franco, José M.; Pazos, Yolanda; Reguera, Beatriz

    2013-01-01

    From June 2006 to January 2007 passive samplers (solid phase adsorbing toxin tracking, SPATT) were tested as a monitoring tool with weekly monitoring of phytoplankton and toxin content (liquid chromatography–mass spectrometry, LC-MS) in picked cells of Dinophysis and plankton concentrates. Successive blooms of Dinophysis acuminata, D. acuta and D. caudata in 2006 caused a long mussel harvesting closure (4.5 months) in the Galician Rías (NW Spain) and a record (up to 9246 ng·g resin-week−1) accumulation of toxins in SPATT discs. Best fit of a toxin accumulation model was between toxin accumulation in SPATT and the product of cell densities by a constant value, for each species of Dinophysis, of toxin content (average) in picked cells. Detection of Dinophysis populations provided earlier warning of oncoming diarrhetic shellfish poisoning (DSP) outbreaks than the SPATT, which at times overestimated the expected toxin levels in shellfish because: (i) SPATT accumulated toxins did not include biotransformation and depuration loss terms and (ii) accumulation of toxins not available to mussels continued for weeks after Dinophysis cells were undetectable and mussels were toxin-free. SPATT may be a valuable environmental monitoring and research tool for toxin dynamics, in particular in areas with no aquaculture, but does not provide a practical gain for early warning of DSP outbreaks. PMID:24152559

  12. A Distributed Architecture for Tsunami Early Warning and Collaborative Decision-support in Crises

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moßgraber, J.; Middleton, S.; Hammitzsch, M.; Poslad, S.

    2012-04-01

    The presentation will describe work on the system architecture that is being developed in the EU FP7 project TRIDEC on "Collaborative, Complex and Critical Decision-Support in Evolving Crises". The challenges for a Tsunami Early Warning System (TEWS) are manifold and the success of a system depends crucially on the system's architecture. A modern warning system following a system-of-systems approach has to integrate various components and sub-systems such as different information sources, services and simulation systems. Furthermore, it has to take into account the distributed and collaborative nature of warning systems. In order to create an architecture that supports the whole spectrum of a modern, distributed and collaborative warning system one must deal with multiple challenges. Obviously, one cannot expect to tackle these challenges adequately with a monolithic system or with a single technology. Therefore, a system architecture providing the blueprints to implement the system-of-systems approach has to combine multiple technologies and architectural styles. At the bottom layer it has to reliably integrate a large set of conventional sensors, such as seismic sensors and sensor networks, buoys and tide gauges, and also innovative and unconventional sensors, such as streams of messages from social media services. At the top layer it has to support collaboration on high-level decision processes and facilitates information sharing between organizations. In between, the system has to process all data and integrate information on a semantic level in a timely manner. This complex communication follows an event-driven mechanism allowing events to be published, detected and consumed by various applications within the architecture. Therefore, at the upper layer the event-driven architecture (EDA) aspects are combined with principles of service-oriented architectures (SOA) using standards for communication and data exchange. The most prominent challenges on this layer

  13. Educator professional development as a component of earthquake and tsunami readiness and early warning systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pratt-Sitaula, B. A.; Butler, R. F.; Lillie, R. J.; Hunter, N.; Magura, B.; Groom, R.; Hedeen, C.; Johnson, J. A.; Olds, S. E.; Charlevoix, D.; Coe, M.

    2014-12-01

    The implementation of any real-time earthquake analysis for disaster mitigation requires not just scientific expertise and equipment but thoughtful, far-reaching, and long term education for emergency management personnel and the public. The "Cascadia EarthScope Earthquake and Tsunami Education Program" (CEETEP) is working to mitigate these potential disasters through collaboration building and professional development for K-12 teachers, park and museum interpreters, and emergency management outreach educators in communities along the Oregon and Washington coast (2013-2016). In this project nearly 150 coastal Cascadia educators are being introduced to critical knowledge about (among other things) earthquake monitoring and earthquake early warning systems. In collaboration last year with UNAVCO, CEETEP developed an animation explaining how GPS and seismic systems can work in concert to greatly enhance earthquake early warning systems for Cascadia and other subduction zone areas (www.youtube.com/user/unavcovideos, "animations"). Science and preparedness educators are key partners in the endeavor of implementing earthquake and tsunami early warning systems. The knowledge of how to run effective professional development programs for such educators will greatly enhance outreach efforts. Initial results from CEETEP are very encouraging. Four of the planned six workshops were held in 2013 (northern coastal Oregon) and 2014 (Olympic Peninsula, Washington). Results from Year 1 show that participant content knowledge improved from 50% to 86% over the course of the workshop. Similarly, confidence in teaching about workshop topics increased from an average of 2.8 to 5.2 on a 6-point scale. Participant optimism about the efficacy and tractability of community-level planning also increased from 5.7 to 7.4 on a 9-point scale. Nearly 90% of participants continued to be active with the program through the time of the March 8, 2014 Share-a-thon and presented on a wide range of

  14. Urban flood early warning systems: approaches to hydrometeorological forecasting and communicating risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cranston, Michael; Speight, Linda; Maxey, Richard; Tavendale, Amy; Buchanan, Peter

    2015-04-01

    One of the main challenges for the flood forecasting community remains the provision of reliable early warnings of surface (or pluvial) flooding. The Scottish Flood Forecasting Service has been developing approaches for forecasting the risk of surface water flooding including capitalising on the latest developments in quantitative precipitation forecasting from the Met Office. A probabilistic Heavy Rainfall Alert decision support tool helps operational forecasters assess the likelihood of surface water flooding against regional rainfall depth-duration estimates from MOGREPS-UK linked to historical short-duration flooding in Scotland. The surface water flood risk is communicated through the daily Flood Guidance Statement to emergency responders. A more recent development is an innovative risk-based hydrometeorological approach that links 24-hour ensemble rainfall forecasts through a hydrological model (Grid-to-Grid) to a library of impact assessments (Speight et al., 2015). The early warning tool - FEWS Glasgow - presents the risk of flooding to people, property and transport across a 1km grid over the city of Glasgow with a lead time of 24 hours. Communication of the risk was presented in a bespoke surface water flood forecast product designed based on emergency responder requirements and trialled during the 2014 Commonwealth Games in Glasgow. The development of new approaches to surface water flood forecasting are leading to improved methods of communicating the risk and better performance in early warning with a reduction in false alarm rates with summer flood guidance in 2014 (67%) compared to 2013 (81%) - although verification of instances of surface water flooding remains difficult. However the introduction of more demanding hydrometeorological capabilities with associated greater levels of uncertainty does lead to an increased demand on operational flood forecasting skills and resources. Speight, L., Cole, S.J., Moore, R.J., Pierce, C., Wright, B., Golding, B

  15. Bridging Empirical and Physical Approaches for Landslide Monitoring and Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirschbaum, Dalia; Peters-Lidard, Christa; Adler, Robert; Kumar, Sujay; Harrison, Ken

    2011-01-01

    Rainfall-triggered landslides typically occur and are evaluated at local scales, using slope-stability models to calculate coincident changes in driving and resisting forces at the hillslope level in order to anticipate slope failures. Over larger areas, detailed high resolution landslide modeling is often infeasible due to difficulties in quantifying the complex interaction between rainfall infiltration and surface materials as well as the dearth of available in situ soil and rainfall estimates and accurate landslide validation data. This presentation will discuss how satellite precipitation and surface information can be applied within a landslide hazard assessment framework to improve landslide monitoring and early warning by considering two disparate approaches to landslide hazard assessment: an empirical landslide forecasting algorithm and a physical slope-stability model. The goal of this research is to advance near real-time landslide hazard assessment and early warning at larger spatial scales. This is done by employing high resolution surface and precipitation information within a probabilistic framework to provide more physically-based grounding to empirical landslide triggering thresholds. The empirical landslide forecasting tool, running in near real-time at http://trmm.nasa.gov, considers potential landslide activity at the global scale and relies on Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) precipitation data and surface products to provide a near real-time picture of where landslides may be triggered. The physical approach considers how rainfall infiltration on a hillslope affects the in situ hydro-mechanical processes that may lead to slope failure. Evaluation of these empirical and physical approaches are performed within the Land Information System (LIS), a high performance land surface model processing and data assimilation system developed within the Hydrological Sciences Branch at NASA's Goddard Space Flight Center. LIS provides the

  16. Toward tsunami early warning system in Indonesia by using rapid rupture durations estimation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Madlazim [Physics Department, Faculty Mathematics and Sciences of Surabaya State University (UNESA) Jl. Ketintang, Surabaya 60231 (Indonesia)

    2012-06-20

    Indonesia has Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (Ina-TEWS) since 2008. The Ina-TEWS has used automatic processing on hypocenter; Mwp, Mw (mB) and Mj. If earthquake occurred in Ocean, depth < 70 km and magnitude > 7, then Ina-TEWS announce early warning that the earthquake can generate tsunami. However, the announcement of the Ina-TEWS is still not accuracy. Purposes of this research are to estimate earthquake rupture duration of large Indonesia earthquakes that occurred in Indian Ocean, Java, Timor sea, Banda sea, Arafura sea and Pasific ocean. We analyzed at least 330 vertical seismogram recorded by IRIS-DMC network using a direct procedure for rapid assessment of earthquake tsunami potential using simple measures on P-wave vertical seismograms on the velocity records, and the likelihood that the high-frequency, apparent rupture duration, T{sub dur}. T{sub dur} can be related to the critical parameters rupture length (L), depth (z), and shear modulus ({mu}) while T{sub dur} may be related to wide (W), slip (D), z or {mu}. Our analysis shows that the rupture duration has a stronger influence to generate tsunami than Mw and depth. The rupture duration gives more information on tsunami impact, Mo/{mu}, depth and size than Mw and other currently used discriminants. We show more information which known from the rupture durations. The longer rupture duration, the shallower source of the earthquake. For rupture duration greater than 50 s, the depth less than 50 km, Mw greater than 7, the longer rupture length, because T{sub dur} is proportional L and greater Mo/{mu}. Because Mo/{mu} is proportional L. So, with rupture duration information can be known information of the four parameters. We also suggest that tsunami potential is not directly related to the faulting type of source and for events that have rupture duration greater than 50 s, the earthquakes generated tsunami. With available real-time seismogram data, rapid calculation, rupture duration discriminant

  17. Regional seismic hazard for Revithoussa, Greece: an earthquake early warning Shield and selection of alert signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Xu

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available The feasibility of an earthquake early warning Shield in Greece is being explored as a European demonstration project. This will be the first early warning system in Europe. The island of Revithoussa is a liquid natural gas storage facility near Athens from which a pipeline runs to a gas distribution centre in Athens. The Shield is being centred on these facilities. The purpose here is to analyze seismicity and seismic hazard in relation to the Shield centre and the remote sensor sites in the Shield network, eventually to help characterize the hazard levels, seismic signals and ground vibration levels that might be observed or create an alert situation at a station. Thus this paper mainly gives estimation of local seismic hazard in the regional working area of Revithoussa by studying extreme peak ground acceleration (PGA and magnitudes. Within the Shield region, the most important zone to be detected is WNW from the Shield centre and is at a relatively short distance (50 km or less, the Gulf of Corinth (active normal faults region. This is the critical zone for early warning of strong ground shaking. A second key region of seismicity is at an intermediate distance (100 km or more from the centre, the Hellenic seismic zone south or southeast from Peloponnisos. A third region to be detected would be the northeastern region from the centre and is at a relatively long distance (about 150 km, Lemnos Island and neighboring region. Several parameters are estimated to characterize the seismicity and hazard. These include: the 50-year PGA with 90% probability of not being exceeded (pnbe using Theodulidis & Papazachos strong motion attenuation for Greece, PGANTP; the 50-year magnitude and also at the 90% pnbe, M50 and MP50, respectively. There are also estimates of the earthquake that is most likely to be felt at a damaging intensity level, these are the most perceptible earthquakes at intensities VI, VII and VIII with magnitudes MVI, MVII and MVIII

  18. Early warning of EUSIG-defined hypotensive events using a Bayesian Artificial Neural Network.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donald, Rob; Howells, Tim; Piper, Ian; Chambers, I; Citerio, G; Enblad, P; Gregson, B; Kiening, K; Mattern, J; Nilsson, P; Ragauskas, A; Sahuquillo, Juan; Sinnott, R; Stell, A

    2012-01-01

    Hypotension is recognized as a potentially damaging secondary insult after traumatic brain injury. Systems to give clinical teams some early warning of likely hypotensive instability could be added to the range of existing techniques used in the management of this group of patients. By using the Edinburgh University Secondary Insult Grades (EUSIG) definitions for -hypotension (systolic arterial pressure Bayesian Artificial Neural Network (an advanced statistical modeling technique) that is able to provide some early warning when trained on this previously collected demographic and physiological data. Using EUSIG defined event data from the Brain-IT database, we identified a Bayesian artificial neural network (BANN) topology and constructed a series of datasets using a group of clinically guided input variables. This allowed us to train a BANN, which was then tested on an unseen set of patients from the Brain-IT database. The initial tests used a particularly harsh assessment criterion whereby a true positive prediction was only allowed if the BANN predicted an upcoming event to the exact minute. We have now developed the system to the point where it is about to be used in a two-stage Phase II clinical trial and we are also researching a more realistic assessment technique. We have constructed a BANN that is able to provide early warning to the clinicians based on a model that uses information from the physiological inputs; systolic and mean arterial pressure and heart rate; and demographic variables age and gender. We use 15-min SubWindows starting at 15 and 30 min before an event and process mean, slope and standard deviations. Based on 10 simulation runs, our current sensitivity is 36.25% (SE 1.31) with a specificity of 90.82% (SE 0.85). Initial results from a Phase I clinical study shows a model sensitivity of 40.95% (SE 6%) and specificity of 86.46% (SE 3%) Although this figure is low it is considered clinically useful for this dangerous condition, provided the

  19. A P-wave based, on-site method for Earthquake Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zollo, Aldo

    2016-04-01

    Can we rapidly predict the potential damage of earthquakes by-passing the estimation of its location and magnitude? One possible approach is to predict the expected peak ground shaking at the site and the earthquake magnitude from the initial P-peak amplitude and characteristic period, respectively. The idea, first developed by Wu and Kanamori (2005), is to combine the two parameters for declaring the alert once the real-time measured quantities have passed pre-defined thresholds. Our proposed on-site early warning method generalized this approach, based on the analysis of strong motion data from modern accelerograph networks in Japan, Taiwan and Italy (Zollo et al., 2010). It is based on the real-time measurement of the period (τc) and peak displacement (Pd) parameters at one or more co-located stations at a given target site to be protected against the earthquake effects. By converting these real-time proxies in predicted values of Peak Ground Velocity (PGV) or instrumental intensity (IMM) and magnitude, an alert level is issued at the recording site based on a decisional table with four entries defined upon threshold values of the parameters Pd and Tc. The latter ones are set according to the error bounds estimated on the derived prediction equations. A near-source network of stations running the onsite method can provide the event location and transmit the information about the alert levels recorded at near-source stations to more distant sites, before the arrival of the most destructive phase. The network-based approach allows for the rapid and robust estimation of the Potential Damage Zone (PDZ), that is the area where most of earthquake damage is expected (Colombelli et al., 2012). A new strategy for a P-wave based, on-site earthquake early warning system has been developed and tested on Japanese strong motion data and under testing on Italian data. The key elements are the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters and their

  20. Non-stationary time series modeling on caterpillars pest of palm oil for early warning system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setiyowati, Susi; Nugraha, Rida F.; Mukhaiyar, Utriweni

    2015-12-01

    The oil palm production has an important role for the plantation and economic sector in Indonesia. One of the important problems in the cultivation of oil palm plantation is pests which causes damage to the quality of fruits. The caterpillar pest which feed palm tree's leaves will cause decline in quality of palm oil production. Early warning system is needed to minimize losses due to this pest. Here, we applied non-stationary time series modeling, especially the family of autoregressive models to predict the number of pests based on its historical data. We realized that there is some uniqueness of these pests data, i.e. the spike value that occur almost periodically. Through some simulations and case study, we obtain that the selection of constant factor has a significance influence to the model so that it can shoot the spikes value precisely.

  1. The International Platform on Earthquake Early Warning Systems (IP-EEWS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torres, Jair; Fanchiotti, Margherita

    2017-04-01

    The Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015-2030 recognizes the need to "substantially increase the availability of and access to multi-hazard early warning systems and disaster risk information and assessments to the people by 2030" as one of its global targets (target "g"). While considerable progress has been made in recent decades, early warning systems (EWSs) continue to be less developed for geo-hazards and significant challenges remain in advancing the development of EWSs for specific hazards, particularly for fastest onset hazards such as earthquakes. An earthquake early warning system (EEWS) helps in disseminating timely information about potentially catastrophic earthquake hazards to the public, emergency managers and the private sector to provide enough time to implement automatized emergency measures. At the same time, these systems help to reduce considerably the CO2 emissions produced by the catastrophic impacts and subsequent effects of earthquakes, such as those generated by fires, collapses, and pollution (among others), as well as those produced in the recovery and reconstruction processes. In recent years, EEWSs have been developed independently in few countries: EEWSs have shown operational in Japan and Mexico, while other regions in California (USA), Turkey, Italy, Canada, South Korea and China (including Taiwan) are in the development stages or under restricted applications. Many other countries in the Indian Subcontinent, Southeast Asia, Central Asia, Middle East, Eastern Africa, Southeast Africa, as well as Central America, South America and the Caribbean, are located in some of the most seismically active regions in the world, or present moderate seismicity but high vulnerability, and would strongly benefit from the development of EEWSs. Given that, in many instances, the development of an EEWS still requires further testing, increased density coverage in seismic observation stations, regional coordination, and further scientific

  2. Study on Catastrophic Air Current Early-warning and Control System of Coalmines

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L.F. Fang

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Catastrophic air current significantly influences the stability of ventilation system, and existing studies have not considered the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current when designing the control systems. To analyze the effects of different kinds of coalmine accidents on safety production, grey relation entropy theory was used to analyze the hazard assessment of coalmine accidents. Fluent software was employed to study the flow characteristics of catastrophic air current, and the catastrophic air current early-warning and control system of coalmine was researched according to the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation. The threat of fire accidents and roof accidents were larger than other accidents. The influence of temperature and CO volume fraction distribution of fire accidents to the tailwind side was larger than that of the weather side, and gradient decreased on the weather side. This system can effectively control the spread of fire and poisonous gas,

  3. Magnitude estimation using the first three seconds P-wave amplitude in earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Yih-Min; Zhao, Li

    2006-08-01

    Pd is the peak amplitude of displacement in the first three seconds after the arrival of the P wave. We investigated the attenuation of Pd with the hypocentral distance R in southern California as a function of magnitude M, and obtained the following relationship: log (Pd) = -3.463 + 0.729 × M - 1.374 × log (R) +/- 0.305. Given an earthquake location determined by the P-wave arrival times at stations close to the epicenter, this relationship can be used to define a so-called ``Pd magnitude'' of earthquakes. Our result shows that for earthquakes in southern California the Pd magnitudes agree with the catalog magnitudes with a standard deviation of 0.18 for events less than magnitude 6.5. Therefore, Pd is a robust measurement for estimating the magnitudes of earthquakes and has practical application in earthquake early warning systems.

  4. A possible space-based tsunami early warning system using observations of the tsunami ionospheric hole

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi

    2016-01-01

    Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas. PMID:27905487

  5. A Simple Early Warning System for Evaluating the Credit Portfolio's Quality

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nicolae Dardac

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The last decade has witnessed the development of a vast literature devoted to the study of several phenomena like banking crises or episodes of vulnerability and distress, characterized by inadequate capitalization, impairment of the asset quality and of the credit institutions' rating. The purpose of this study is to design an early warning system in order to highlight at an earlier stage the likelihood of deterioration of the Romanian banking system credit portfolio's quality. We have applied an econometric model which constitutes a reference for this type of analysis, having as purpose the identification of a significant correlation between increasing weight of bad loans in total assets, on the one hand, and a number of macroeconomic variables and indicators of the banking system, on the other hand.

  6. ProMED-mail: an early warning system for emerging diseases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Madoff, Lawrence C

    2004-07-15

    The Program for Monitoring Emerging Diseases (ProMED-mail) reports on outbreaks of diseases of infectious or toxic etiology, whether natural or intentionally released, that affect humans. Open to all sources, free of political constraints, and available to users free of charge, ProMED-mail exploits the speed and ubiquity of the Internet to serve as an early warning system for the detection of emerging disease outbreaks. ProMED-mail monitors diseases of plants and animals of agricultural importance in addition to zoonoses because of their key role in disease emergence. Reports are carefully screened for validity and are placed in an appropriate context by commentary and references from a panel of expert moderators. Reports are then posted to the Web and sent by e-mail to >32,000 subscribers in >150 countries.

  7. A possible space-based tsunami early warning system using observations of the tsunami ionospheric hole.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kamogawa, Masashi; Orihara, Yoshiaki; Tsurudome, Chiaki; Tomida, Yuto; Kanaya, Tatsuya; Ikeda, Daiki; Gusman, Aditya Riadi; Kakinami, Yoshihiro; Liu, Jann-Yenq; Toyoda, Atsushi

    2016-12-01

    Ionospheric plasma disturbances after a large tsunami can be detected by measurement of the total electron content (TEC) between a Global Positioning System (GPS) satellite and its ground-based receivers. TEC depression lasting for a few minutes to tens of minutes termed as tsunami ionospheric hole (TIH) is formed above the tsunami source area. Here we describe the quantitative relationship between initial tsunami height and the TEC depression rate caused by a TIH from seven tsunamigenic earthquakes in Japan and Chile. We found that the percentage of TEC depression and initial tsunami height are correlated and the largest TEC depressions appear 10 to 20 minutes after the main shocks. Our findings imply that Ionospheric TEC measurement using the existing ground receiver networks could be used in an early warning system for near-field tsunamis that take more than 20 minutes to arrive in coastal areas.

  8. The National Early Warning Score: Translation, testing and prediction in a Swedish setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spångfors, Martin; Arvidsson, Lisa; Karlsson, Victoria; Samuelson, Karin

    2016-12-01

    The National Early Warning Score - NEWS is a "track and trigger" scale designed to assess in-hospital patients' vital signs and detect clinical deterioration. In this study the NEWS was translated into Swedish and its association with the need of intensive care was investigated. A total of 868 patient charts, recorded by the medical emergency team at a university hospital, containing the parameters needed to calculate the NEWS were audited. The NEWS was translated into Swedish and tested for inter-rater reliability with a perfect agreement (weighted κ=1.0) among the raters. The median score for patients admitted to the ICU were higher than for those who were not (10 vs. 8, pscores for the parameters oxygen saturation and level of consciousness in the NEWS may predict admission to the ICU. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Detection of rain events in radiological early warning networks with spectro-dosimetric systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dąbrowski, R.; Dombrowski, H.; Kessler, P.; Röttger, A.; Neumaier, S.

    2017-10-01

    Short-term pronounced increases of the ambient dose equivalent rate, due to rainfall are a well-known phenomenon. Increases in the same order of magnitude or even below may also be caused by a nuclear or radiological event, i.e. by artificial radiation. Hence, it is important to be able to identify natural rain events in dosimetric early warning networks and to distinguish them from radiological events. Novel spectrometric systems based on scintillators may be used to differentiate between the two scenarios, because the measured gamma spectra provide significant nuclide-specific information. This paper describes three simple, automatic methods to check whether an dot H*(10) increase is caused by a rain event or by artificial radiation. These methods were applied to measurements of three spectrometric systems based on CeBr3, LaBr3 and SrI2 scintillation crystals, investigated and tested for their practicability at a free-field reference site of PTB.

  10. Early warning of diarrhea and pen fouling in growing pigs using sensor-based monitoring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jensen, D. B.; Toft, N.; Kristensen, A. R.

    as the area under the receiver operating characteristics curve (AUC). Results: We achieved an AUC of 0.83 when all variables were included. Omitting live weight and humidity had no effect. Omitting drinking behavior, temperature, and feed usage reduced the AUC to 0.70, 0.81, and 0.82 respectively. Conclusion...... then identify specific pens in need of extra attention. Here we evaluate the value of monitoring live weight, feed usage, humidity, drinking behavior and pen temperature in relation to early warnings of diarrhea and pen fouling in slaughter pigs. Materials and methods: We used data collected in 16 pens (8...... double-pens) between November 2013 and December 2014 at a commercial Danish farm. During this time, three new batches were inserted. We monitored the mean live weight of the pigs per pen (weekly, only in 4 pens), feed usage per double-pen (daily), humidity per section (daily), temperature at two...

  11. Geospatiotemporal Data Mining in an Early Warning System for Forest Threats in the United States

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hoffman, Forrest M [ORNL; Mills, Richard T [ORNL; Kumar, Jitendra [ORNL; Vulli, Srinivasa S [ORNL; HargroveJr., William Walter [United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), United States Forest Service (USFS)

    2010-01-01

    We investigate the potential of geospatiotemporal data mining of multi-year land surface phenology data (250~m Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) values derived from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) in this study) for the conterminous United States as part of an early warning system to identify threats to forest ecosystems. Cluster analysis of this massive data set, using high-performance computing, provides a basis for several possible approaches to defining the bounds of ``normal'' phenological patterns, indicating healthy vegetation in a given geographic location. We demonstrate the applicability of such an approach, using it to identify areas in Colorado, USA, where an ongoing mountain pine beetle outbreak has caused significant tree mortality.

  12. Detection of pathogenic viruses in sewage provided early warnings of hepatitis A virus and norovirus outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellmér, Maria; Paxéus, Nicklas; Magnius, Lars; Enache, Lucica; Arnholm, Birgitta; Johansson, Annette; Bergström, Tomas; Norder, Heléne

    2014-11-01

    Most persons infected with enterically transmitted viruses shed large amounts of virus in feces for days or weeks, both before and after onset of symptoms. Therefore, viruses causing gastroenteritis may be detected in wastewater, even if only a few persons are infected. In this study, the presence of eight pathogenic viruses (norovirus, astrovirus, rotavirus, adenovirus, Aichi virus, parechovirus, hepatitis A virus [HAV], and hepatitis E virus) was investigated in sewage to explore whether their identification could be used as an early warning of outbreaks. Samples of the untreated sewage were collected in proportion to flow at Ryaverket, Gothenburg, Sweden. Daily samples collected during every second week between January and May 2013 were pooled and analyzed for detection of viruses by concentration through adsorption to milk proteins and PCR. The largest amount of noroviruses was detected in sewage 2 to 3 weeks before most patients were diagnosed with this infection in Gothenburg. The other viruses were detected at lower levels. HAV was detected between weeks 5 and 13, and partial sequencing of the structural VP1protein identified three different strains. Two strains were involved in an ongoing outbreak in Scandinavia and were also identified in samples from patients with acute hepatitis A in Gothenburg during spring of 2013. The third strain was unique and was not detected in any patient sample. The method used may thus be a tool to detect incipient outbreaks of these viruses and provide early warning before the causative pathogens have been recognized in health care. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  13. Cervical Spine Status of Pilots and Air-Controllers of Airborne Early Warning and Control Aircraft.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shin, Young Ho; Yun, Chul; Han, Andrew Hogyu

    2017-05-01

    Many countries have developed their own airborne early warning and control (AEW&C) systems for use in surveying their territorial sky in real time. However, a review of the literature suggests that no studies have been conducted to analyze the cervical spine of pilots and air-controllers of AEW&C aircraft. The study subjects were 80 pilots and air-controllers of AEW&C aircraft with a period of service of > 1 yr and had data on physical examinations, simple radiographs and functional scores of the axial skeleton, and questionnaires about lifestyle and working conditions. Information about physical characteristics and experience of neck pain were collected. Functional scores including the neck disability index and short-form 36-item health survey were obtained. Radiological measurements were performed for the C2-7 Cobb angle and degree of forward head posture. Of the 80 subjects, 33 (41.3%) had experienced neck pain and 63 (78.8%) had impaired cervical lordosis. The results of functional and radiological evaluations were not significantly different between pilots and air-controllers. In multivariate analysis, only the age was significantly related to the occurrence of impaired cervical lordosis. However, there were no significant factors related to the occurrence of neck pain. The results of this study suggest that the working environment of pilots and air-controllers of AEW&C aircraft has a negative effect on their cervical spine. Age seemed to be the most significant factor affecting the occurrence of impaired cervical lordosis in these subjects.Shin YH, Yun C, Han AH. Cervical spine status of pilots and air-controllers of airborne early warning and control aircraft. Aerosp Med Hum Perform. 2017; 88(5):476-480.

  14. Predicting unplanned readmissions to a pediatric cardiac intensive care unit using predischarge Pediatric Early Warning Scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kroeger, Ashley R; Morrison, Jacqueline; Smith, Andrew H

    2017-08-01

    Unplanned readmission to the pediatric cardiac intensive care unit (CICU) is associated with significant morbidity and mortality. The Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) predicts ward patients at risk for decompensation but has not been previously reported to identify at-risk patients with cardiac disease prior to ward transfer. This study aimed to determine whether PEWS prior to transfer may serve as a predictor of unplanned readmission to the CICU. All patients discharged from a tertiary children's hospital CICU from September 2012 through August 2015 were included for analysis. PEWS assessment was performed following transfer to the cardiac ward, and starting in January 2014, PEWS scores were also assigned by bedside CICU nurse prior to transfer from the CICU. Scores exceeding a predetermined threshold prompted further stability assessment by provider team prior to transfer. Among 1320 discharges of 1082 patients during the study period, there were 130 unplanned readmissions during their hospitalization. Following implementation of pretransfer PEWS scoring, there was no significant reduction in unplanned readmission frequency (10.2% vs 9.2%, P = .39). A secondary analysis of PEWS scores revealed cardiac scoring as a strong discriminator of those likely to experience an unplanned readmission, independent of other significant clinical predictors of readmission (OR 1.78, 95% CI 1.17-2.71, P = .007). The resultant multivariate model was a good predictor of unplanned readmission (AUC 0.77, 95% CI 0.71-0.83, P early warning scoring system, along with other patient characteristics serves as a good discriminator of patients likely to experience an unplanned readmission following CICU discharge. Further prospective investigation is needed to define objective measures of pretransfer discharge readiness to potentially reduce the likelihood of unplanned readmissions. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Comparison of the National Early Warning Score in non-elective medical and surgical patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kovacs, C; Jarvis, S W; Prytherch, D R; Meredith, P; Schmidt, P E; Briggs, J S; Smith, G B

    2016-09-01

    The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) is used to identify deteriorating patients in hospital. NEWS is a better discriminator of outcomes than other early warning scores in acute medical admissions, but it has not been evaluated in a surgical population. The study aims were to evaluate the ability of NEWS to discriminate cardiac arrest, death and unanticipated ICU admission in patients admitted to surgical specialties, and to compare the performance of NEWS in admissions to medical and surgical specialties. Hospitalwide data over 31 months, from adult inpatients who stayed at least one night or died on the day of admission, were analysed. The data were categorized as elective or non-elective surgical or medical admissions. The ability of NEWS to discriminate the outcomes above in these different groups was assessed using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). There were too few outcomes to permit meaningful comparison of elective admissions, so the analysis was constrained to comparison of non-elective admissions. NEWS performed equally well, or better, for surgical as for medical patients. For death within 24 h the AUROC for surgical admissions was 0·914 (95 per cent c.i. 0·907 to 0·922), compared with 0·902 (0·898 to 0·905) for medical admissions. For the combined outcome of any of death, cardiac arrest or unanticipated ICU admission, the AUROC was 0·874 (0·868 to 0·880) for surgical admissions and 0·874 (0·871 to 0·877) for medical admissions. NEWS discriminated deterioration in non-elective surgical patients at least as well as in non-elective medical patients. © 2016 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  16. Modifications of the National Early Warning Score for patients with chronic respiratory disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pedersen, N E; Rasmussen, L S; Petersen, J A; Gerds, T A; Østergaard, D; Lippert, A

    2017-10-26

    The National Early Warning Score (NEWS) uses physiological variables to detect deterioration in hospitalized patients. However, patients with chronic respiratory disease may have abnormal variables not requiring interventions. We studied how the Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override System (CROS), the Chronic Respiratory Early Warning Score (CREWS) and the Salford NEWS (S-NEWS) affected NEWS total scores and NEWS performance. In an observational study, we included patients with chronic respiratory disease. The frequency of use of CROS and the NEWS total score changes caused by CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS were described. NEWS, CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS were compared using 48-h mortality and intensive care unit (ICU) admission within 48 h as outcomes. We studied 11,266 patients during 25,978 admissions; the use of CROS lowered NEWS total scores in 40% of included patients. CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS had lower sensitivities than NEWS for 48-h mortality and ICU admission. Specificities and PPV were higher. CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS downgraded, respectively, 51.5%, 44.9% and 32.8% of the NEWS total scores from the 'mandatory doctor presence' and 'immediate doctor presence and specialist consultation' total score intervals to lower intervals. Capital Region of Denmark NEWS Override System was frequently used in patients with chronic respiratory disease. CROS, CREWS and S-NEWS reduced sensitivity for 48-h mortality and ICU admission. Using the methodology prevalent in the NEWS literature, we cannot conclude on the safety of these systems. Future prospective studies should investigate the balance between detection rate and alarm fatigue of different systems, or use controlled designs and patient-centred outcomes. © 2017 The Acta Anaesthesiologica Scandinavica Foundation. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. A search for applications of Fiber Optics in early warning systems for natural hazards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wenker, Koen; Bogaard, Thom

    2013-04-01

    In order to reduce the societal risk associated with natural hazards novel technologies could help to advance in early warning systems. In our study we evaluate the use of multi-sensor technologies as possible early-warning systems for landslides and man-made structures, and the integration of the information in a simple Decision Support System (DSS). In this project, particular attention will be paid to some new possibilities available in the field of distributed monitoring systems of relevant parameters for landslide and man-made structures monitoring (such as large dams and bridges), and among them the distributed monitoring of temperature, strain and acoustic signals by FO cables. Fiber Optic measurements are becoming more and more popular. Fiber optic cables have been developed in the telecommunication business to send large amounts of information over large distances with the speed of light. Because of the commercial application, production costs are relatively low. Using fiber optics for measurements has several advantages. This novel technology is, for instance, immune to electromagnetic interference, appears stable, very accurate, and has the potential to measure several independent physical properties in a distributed manner. The high resolution spatial and temporal distributed information on e.g. temperature or strain (or both) make fiber optics an interesting measurement technique. Several applications have been developed in both engineering as science and the possibilities seem numerous. We will present a thorough literature review that was done to assess the applicability and limitations of FO cable technology. This review was focused but not limited to application in landslide research. Several examples of current practices will be shown, also from outside the natural hazard practice and possible application will be discussed.

  18. Tsunami early warning system for the western coast of the Black Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ionescu, Constantin; Partheniu, Raluca; Cioflan, Carmen; Constantin, Angela; Danet, Anton; Diaconescu, Mihai; Ghica, Daniela; Grecu, Bogdan; Manea, Liviu; Marmureanu, Alexandru; Moldovan, Iren; Neagoe, Cristian; Radulian, Mircea; Raileanu, Victor; Verdes, Ioan

    2014-05-01

    The Black Sea area is liable to tsunamis generation and the statistics show that more than twenty tsunamis have been observed in the past. The last tsunami was observed on 31st of March 1901 in the western part of the Black Sea, in the Shabla area. An earthquake of magnitude generated at a depth of 15 km below the sea level , triggered tsunami waves of 5 m height and material losses as well. The oldest tsunami ever recorded close to the Romanian shore-line dates from year 104. This paper emphasises the participation of The National Institute for Earth Physics (NIEP) to the development of a tsunami warning system for the western cost of the Black Sea. In collaboration with the National Institute for Marine Geology and Geoecology (GeoEcoMar), the Institute of Oceanology and the Geological Institute, the last two belonging to the Bulgarian Academy of Science, NIEP has participated as partner, to the cross-border project "Set-up and implementation of key core components of a regional early-warning system for marine geohazards of risk to the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea coastal area - MARINEGEOHAZARDS", coordinated by GeoEcoMar. The main purpose of the project was the implementation of an integrated early-warning system accompanied by a common decision-support tool, and enhancement of regional technical capability, for the adequate detection, assessment, forecasting and rapid notification of natural marine geohazards for the Romanian-Bulgarian Black Sea cross-border area. In the last years, NIEP has increased its interest on the marine related hazards, such as tsunamis and, in collaboration with other institutions of Romania, is acting to strengthen the cooperation and data exchanges with institutions from the Black Sea surrounding countries which already have tsunami monitoring infrastructures. In this respect, NIEP has developed a coastal network for marine seismicity, by installing three new seismic stations in the coastal area of the Black Sea, Sea Level Sensors

  19. The Lund University Checklist for Incipient Exhaustion: a prospective validation of the onset of sustained stress and exhaustion warnings.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Österberg, Kai; Persson, Roger; Viborg, Njördur; Jönsson, Peter; Tenenbaum, Artur

    2016-09-29

    The need for instruments that can assist in detecting the prodromal stages of stress-related exhaustion has been acknowledged. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether the Lund University Checklist for Incipient Exhaustion (LUCIE) could accurately and prospectively detect the onset of incipient exhaustion and to what extent work stressor exposure and private burdens were associated with increasing LUCIE scores. Using surveys, 1355 employees were followed for 11 quarters. Participants with prospectively elevated LUCIE scores were targeted by three algorithms entailing 4 quarters: (1) abrupt onset to a sustained Stress Warning (n = 18), (2) gradual onset to a sustained Stress Warning (n = 42), and (3) sustained Exhaustion Warning (n = 36). The targeted participants' survey reports on changes in work situation and private life during the fulfillment of any algorithm criteria were analyzed, together with the interview data. Participants untargeted by the algorithms constituted a control group (n = 745). Eighty-seven percent of participants fulfilling any LUCIE algorithm criteria (LUCIE indication cases) rated a negative change in their work situation during the 4 quarters, compared to 48 % of controls. Ratings of negative changes in private life were also more common in the LUCIE indication groups than among controls (58 % vs. 29 %), but free-text commentaries revealed that almost half of the ratings in the LUCIE indication groups were due to work-to-family conflicts and health problems caused by excessive workload, assigned more properly to work-related negative changes. When excluding the themes related to work-stress-related private life compromises, negative private life changes in the LUCIE indication groups dropped from 58 to 32 %, while only a negligible drop from 29 to 26 % was observed among controls. In retrospective interviews, 79 % of the LUCIE indication participants confirmed exclusively/predominantly work stressors

  20. The Lund University Checklist for Incipient Exhaustion: a prospective validation of the onset of sustained stress and exhaustion warnings

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kai Österberg

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The need for instruments that can assist in detecting the prodromal stages of stress-related exhaustion has been acknowledged. The aim of the present study was to evaluate whether the Lund University Checklist for Incipient Exhaustion (LUCIE could accurately and prospectively detect the onset of incipient exhaustion and to what extent work stressor exposure and private burdens were associated with increasing LUCIE scores. Methods Using surveys, 1355 employees were followed for 11 quarters. Participants with prospectively elevated LUCIE scores were targeted by three algorithms entailing 4 quarters: (1 abrupt onset to a sustained Stress Warning (n = 18, (2 gradual onset to a sustained Stress Warning (n = 42, and (3 sustained Exhaustion Warning (n = 36. The targeted participants’ survey reports on changes in work situation and private life during the fulfillment of any algorithm criteria were analyzed, together with the interview data. Participants untargeted by the algorithms constituted a control group (n = 745. Results Eighty-seven percent of participants fulfilling any LUCIE algorithm criteria (LUCIE indication cases rated a negative change in their work situation during the 4 quarters, compared to 48 % of controls. Ratings of negative changes in private life were also more common in the LUCIE indication groups than among controls (58 % vs. 29 %, but free-text commentaries revealed that almost half of the ratings in the LUCIE indication groups were due to work-to-family conflicts and health problems caused by excessive workload, assigned more properly to work-related negative changes. When excluding the themes related to work-stress-related private life compromises, negative private life changes in the LUCIE indication groups dropped from 58 to 32 %, while only a negligible drop from 29 to 26 % was observed among controls. In retrospective interviews, 79 % of the LUCIE indication participants

  1. Future of Earthquake Early Warning: Quantifying Uncertainty and Making Fast Automated Decisions for Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Stephen

    Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems have been rapidly developing over the past decade. Japan Meteorological Agency (JMA) has an EEW system that was operating during the 2011 M9 Tohoku earthquake in Japan, and this increased the awareness of EEW systems around the world. While longer-time earthquake prediction still faces many challenges to be practical, the availability of shorter-time EEW opens up a new door for earthquake loss mitigation. After an earthquake fault begins rupturing, an EEW system utilizes the first few seconds of recorded seismic waveform data to quickly predict the hypocenter location, magnitude, origin time and the expected shaking intensity level around the region. This early warning information is broadcast to different sites before the strong shaking arrives. The warning lead time of such a system is short, typically a few seconds to a minute or so, and the information is uncertain. These factors limit human intervention to activate mitigation actions and this must be addressed for engineering applications of EEW. This study applies a Bayesian probabilistic approach along with machine learning techniques and decision theories from economics to improve different aspects of EEW operation, including extending it to engineering applications. Existing EEW systems are often based on a deterministic approach. Often, they assume that only a single event occurs within a short period of time, which led to many false alarms after the Tohoku earthquake in Japan. This study develops a probability-based EEW algorithm based on an existing deterministic model to extend the EEW system to the case of concurrent events, which are often observed during the aftershock sequence after a large earthquake. To overcome the challenge of uncertain information and short lead time of EEW, this study also develops an earthquake probability-based automated decision-making (ePAD) framework to make robust decision for EEW mitigation applications. A cost-benefit model that

  2. The Ancona Early Warning Centre, Instrumentation and Continuous Monitoring of the Landslide

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardellini, S.

    2013-12-01

    The 'Grande frana di Ancona' is an deep-seated landslide reactivated in 1982 after a long period of precipitation. The landslide involves clay and silty clay layers (Pliocene-Pleistocene), fractured with different OCR parameter, alternated with thin sand levels. Overlapped sliding zones are active (maximum depth: 100-120 m, maximum depth 1982 event is 75 m bgl). All the investigations aimed at the consolidation preliminary design in 2000, but the plan concluded that a final consolidation was impossible. Ancona Administration decided then to 'live with the landslide' reducing nevertheless the risk for the people living there. In 2002 a regional law was specifically issued for the people living in the landslide, to give Ancona Administration the responsibility of creating an Early Warning System and an Emergency Plan for people. It's active a surface monitoring system based on 7 total stations and 33 geodetic GPS integrated by a subsurface in place geotechnical system based on 3 DMS multiparametric columns installed down to 95 m depth. Surface Monitoring system The combination of the different instruments: GPS, Automatic Robotic Stations and the clinometric sensors allows us to monitor in the 3D (3D, X, Y, Z) a great number of points previously identified, to keep them under supervision with different measuring technical and from different control positions. The adoption of the geodetic GPS at dual frequency assure an high quality of the GPS measures, and a greater versatility at all the system. The measuring cycle is set up on 30 minutes, but in emergency or after a long rainy period, the system can operate on every points of the dual frequency GPS net also in Real Time RTK, and with the 7 Automatic Robotic Stations. Geotechnical monitoring (DMS) The in place Geotechnical Monitoring System DMS (patents and trade mark CSG srl -Italy) was installed in February 2009. It is made by n°3 Modular Dynamic System columns positioned inside borehole 100 m depth. DMS columns

  3. A seamless global hydrological monitoring and forecasting system for water resources assessment and hydrological hazard early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheffield, Justin; He, Xiaogang; Wood, Eric; Pan, Ming; Wanders, Niko; Zhan, Wang; Peng, Liqing

    2017-04-01

    Sustainable management of water resources and mitigation of the impacts of hydrological hazards are becoming ever more important at large scales because of inter-basin, inter-country and inter-continental connections in water dependent sectors. These include water resources management, food production, and energy production, whose needs must be weighed against the water needs of ecosystems and preservation of water resources for future generations. The strains on these connections are likely to increase with climate change and increasing demand from burgeoning populations and rapid development, with potential for conflict over water. At the same time, network connections may provide opportunities to alleviate pressures on water availability through more efficient use of resources such as trade in water dependent goods. A key constraint on understanding, monitoring and identifying solutions to increasing competition for water resources and hazard risk is the availability of hydrological data for monitoring and forecasting water resources and hazards. We present a global online system that provides continuous and consistent water products across time scales, from the historic instrumental period, to real-time monitoring, short-term and seasonal forecasts, and climate change projections. The system is intended to provide data and tools for analysis of historic hydrological variability and trends, water resources assessment, monitoring of evolving hazards and forecasts for early warning, and climate change scale projections of changes in water availability and extreme events. The system is particular useful for scientists and stakeholders interested in regions with less available in-situ data, and where forecasts have the potential to help decision making. The system is built on a database of high-resolution climate data from 1950 to present that merges available observational records with bias-corrected reanalysis and satellite data, which then drives a coupled land

  4. Regional drought early warning, impacts, and assessment for water and agriculture in the lower Rio Grande basin, 2016-2017

    Science.gov (United States)

    USDA’s Southern Plains Climate Hub (SPCH) and the University of Oklahoma’s Southern Climate Impacts Planning Program (SCIPP) contributed to a broad, multi-partnered effort to provide drought early warning information to water and agriculture management interests in the middle and lower Rio Grande ba...

  5. Comparing Methodologies for Developing an Early Warning System: Classification and Regression Tree Model versus Logistic Regression. REL 2015-077

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koon, Sharon; Petscher, Yaacov

    2015-01-01

    The purpose of this report was to explicate the use of logistic regression and classification and regression tree (CART) analysis in the development of early warning systems. It was motivated by state education leaders' interest in maintaining high classification accuracy while simultaneously improving practitioner understanding of the rules by…

  6. Understanding the High School Proficiency Test and the Early Warning Test in Relation to HCCC Enrollment Trends.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Taffy, Fred

    The Grade 11 High School Proficiency Test (HSPT) and the New Jersey Early Warning Test (EWT) are two key standardized tests that indicate academic ability of county high school graduates which colleges will need to address. While HSPT scores for county high school districts reflect a range of competency in reading, math, and writing, the majority…

  7. The value of ProMED-mail for the Early Warning Committee in the Netherlands : more specific approach recommended

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zeldenrust, M E; Rahamat-Langendoen, J C; Postma, M.J.; van Vliet, J A

    2008-01-01

    This article describes a retrospective and descriptive study into the added value of ProMED-mail--the global electronic reporting system for outbreaks of emerging infectious diseases and toxins maintained by the International Society for Infectious Diseases--as an early warning system for The

  8. A Multi-Source Early Warning System of MEMS Based Wireless Monitoring for Rainfall-Induced Landslides

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongji Yang

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available Landslide monitoring and early warning systems are the most successful countermeasures to reduce fatalities and economic losses from landslide hazards. The traditional strategies such as GPS and extensometers are relatively expensive and difficult to be installed in steep, high mountains. In this study, a MEMS (Micro Electro Mechanical Systems based multivariate wireless monitoring sensor unit was used to build a monitoring and early warning system for rainfall-triggered landslides, as one of the most practical and cost-effective countermeasures for hard-reached mountains. The multi-source wireless monitoring system and its well-developed equipment were tested in a landslide-prone slope to monitor the triggering of landslides and debris flows in the Wenchuan earthquake region, China. The variations of several state variables were observed, including the soil moisture content, soil matric suction, rainfall, inclination and ground vibration. The results of a slope stability analysis were benchmarked with the in situ measurements to identify the multivariate early warning parameters for rainfall-induced landslides. The proposed early warning system for the slope stability analysis can provide a more accurate prediction for rainfall-induced landslides and debris flows in earthquake hit regions.

  9. Early Warning Indicator System: Supporting K-12 Educators in the Identification, Support, and Monitoring of At-Risk Students

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massachusetts Department of Elementary and Secondary Education, 2016

    2016-01-01

    A rise in data availability gives educators the opportunity to tailor instructional practices and interventions to student needs and invest resources in areas where students require the most support. Massachusetts developed the Early Warning Indicator System (EWIS), which synthesizes the wealth of student data available in the state, including…

  10. The challenge of installing a tsunami early warning system in the vicinity of the Sunda Arc, Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Lauterjung

    2010-04-01

    Full Text Available Indonesia is located along the most prominent active continental margin in the Indian Ocean, the so-called Sunda Arc and, therefore, is one of the most threatened regions of the world in terms of natural hazards such as earthquakes, volcanoes, and tsunamis. On 26 December 2004 the third largest earthquake ever instrumentally recorded (magnitude 9.3, Stein and Okal, 2005 occurred off-shore northern Sumatra and triggered a mega-tsunami affecting the whole Indian Ocean. Almost a quarter of a million people were killed, as the region was not prepared either in terms of early-warning or in terms of disaster response.

    In order to be able to provide, in future, a fast and reliable warning procedure for the population, Germany, immediately after the catastrophe, offered during the UN World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Kobe, Hyogo/Japan in January 2005 technical support for the development and installation of a tsunami early warning system for the Indian Ocean in addition to assistance in capacity building in particular for local communities. This offer was accepted by Indonesia but also by other countries like Sri Lanka, the Maldives and some East-African countries. Anyhow the main focus of our activities has been carried out in Indonesia as the main source of tsunami threat for the entire Indian Ocean. Challenging for the technical concept of this warning system are the extremely short warning times for Indonesia, due to its vicinity to the Sunda Arc. For this reason the German Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System (GITEWS integrates different modern and new scientific monitoring technologies and analysis methods.

  11. Seismogeodetic monitoring techniques for tsunami and earthquake early warning and rapid assessment of structural damage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Saunders, J. K.; Goldberg, D.; Restrepo, J. I.

    2016-12-01

    As part of an effort to promote the use of NASA-sponsored Earth science information for disaster risk reduction, real-time high-rate seismogeodetic data are being incorporated into early warning and structural monitoring systems. Seismogeodesy combines seismic acceleration and GPS displacement measurements using a tightly-coupled Kalman filter to provide absolute estimates of seismic acceleration, velocity and displacement. Traditionally, the monitoring of earthquakes and tsunamis has been based on seismic networks for estimating earthquake magnitude and slip, and tide gauges and deep-ocean buoys for direct measurement of tsunami waves. Real-time seismogeodetic observations at subduction zones allow for more robust and rapid magnitude and slip estimation that increase warning time in the near-source region. A NASA-funded effort to utilize GPS and seismogeodesy in NOAA's Tsunami Warning Centers in Alaska and Hawaii integrates new modules for picking, locating, and estimating magnitudes and moment tensors for earthquakes into the USGS earthworm environment at the TWCs. In a related project, NASA supports the transition of this research to seismogeodetic tools for disaster preparedness, specifically by implementing GPS and low-cost MEMS accelerometers for structural monitoring in partnership with earthquake engineers. Real-time high-rate seismogeodetic structural monitoring has been implemented on two structures. The first is a parking garage at the Autonomous University of Baja California Faculty of Medicine in Mexicali, not far from the rupture of the 2011 Mw 7.2 El Mayor Cucapah earthquake enabled through a UCMexus collaboration. The second is the 8-story Geisel Library at University of California, San Diego (UCSD). The system has also been installed for several proof-of-concept experiments at the UCSD Network for Earthquake Engineering Simulation (NEES) Large High Performance Outdoor Shake Table. We present MEMS-based seismogeodetic observations from the 10 June

  12. Development of an advanced radioactive airborne particle monitoring system for use in early warning networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baeza, A; Corbacho, J A; Caballero, J M; Ontalba, M A; Vasco, J; Valencia, D

    2017-09-25

    Automatic real-time warning networks are essential for the almost immediate detection of anomalous levels of radioactivity in the environment. In the case of Extremadura region (SW Spain), a radiological network (RARE) has been operational in the vicinity of the Almaraz nuclear power plant and in other areas farther away since 1992. There are ten air monitoring stations equipped with Geiger-Müller counters in order to evaluate the external ambient gamma dose rate. Four of these stations have a commercial system that provides estimates of the total artificial alpha and beta activity concentrations in aerosols, and of the 131 I activity (gaseous fraction). Despite experience having demonstrated the benefits and robustness of these commercial systems, important improvements have been made to one of these air monitoring systems. In this paper, the analytical and maintenance shortcomings of the original commercial air monitoring system are described first; the new custom-designed advanced air monitoring system is then presented. This system is based mainly on the incorporation of gamma spectrometry using two scintillation detectors, one of NaI:Tl and the other of LaBr 3 :Ce, and compact multichannel analysers. Next, a comparison made of the results provided by the two systems operating simultaneously at the same location for three months shows the advantages of the new advanced air monitoring system. As a result, the gamma spectrometry analysis allows passing from global alpha and beta activity determinations due to artificial radionuclides in aerosols, and the inaccurate measurement of the gaseous 131 I activity concentration, to the possibility of identifying a large number of radionuclides and quantifying each of their activity concentrations. Moreover, the new station's dual capacity is designed to work in early warning monitoring mode and surveillance monitoring mode. This is based on custom developed software that includes an intelligent system to issue the

  13. Early warning system hypertension thresholds to predict adverse outcomes in pre-eclampsia: A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nathan, Hannah L; Seed, Paul T; Hezelgrave, Natasha L; De Greeff, Annemarie; Lawley, Elodie; Anthony, John; Hall, David R; Steyn, Wilhelm; Chappell, Lucy C; Shennan, Andrew H

    2017-11-21

    To evaluate the association between blood pressure (BP) measurements and adverse outcomes in women with pre-eclampsia. A prospective cohort study of women with pre-eclampsia admitted to three South African tertiary facilities. BP was measured using the CRADLE Vital Signs Alert (VSA), incorporated with a traffic light early warning system; green: systolic BP warning system, can identify women who are hypertensive, at increased risk of severe pre-eclampsia complications and in need of escalation of care. Women who triggered a red light were at increased risk of kidney injury, magnesium sulfate use and CCU admission. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  14. Effects of stressor characteristics on early warning signs of critical transitions and "critical coupling" in complex dynamical systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blume, Steffen O. P.; Sansavini, Giovanni

    2017-12-01

    Complex dynamical systems face abrupt transitions into unstable and catastrophic regimes. These critical transitions are triggered by gradual modifications in stressors, which push the dynamical system towards unstable regimes. Bifurcation analysis can characterize such critical thresholds, beyond which systems become unstable. Moreover, the stochasticity of the external stressors causes small-scale fluctuations in the system response. In some systems, the decomposition of these signal fluctuations into precursor signals can reveal early warning signs prior to the critical transition. Here, we present a dynamical analysis of a power system subjected to an increasing load level and small-scale stochastic load perturbations. We show that the auto- and cross-correlations of bus voltage magnitudes increase, leading up to a Hopf bifurcation point, and further grow until the system collapses. This evidences a gradual transition into a state of "critical coupling," which is complementary to the established concept of "critical slowing down." Furthermore, we analyze the effects of the type of load perturbation and load characteristics on early warning signs and find that gradient changes in the autocorrelation provide early warning signs of the imminent critical transition under white-noise but not for auto-correlated load perturbations. Furthermore, the cross-correlation between all voltage magnitude pairs generally increases prior to and beyond the Hopf bifurcation point, indicating "critical coupling," but cannot provide early warning indications. Finally, we show that the established early warning indicators are oblivious to limit-induced bifurcations and, in the case of the power system model considered here, only react to an approaching Hopf bifurcation.

  15. A Threshold-based, on-site earthquake early warning approach for Italy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruso, Alessandro; Colombelli, Simona; Zollo, Aldo; Kanamori, Hiroo

    2017-04-01

    A real-time strategy for a P-wave based, on-site earthquake early warning system has been developed and tested using the database of Italian earthquakes. The key elements of the proposed methodology are: 1) the real-time, continuous measurement of three peak amplitude parameters (the initial peak of displacement, Pd, velocity, Pv, and acceleration, Pa) along the vertical component of the P-wave signal and 2) their empirical combination to predict the ensuing Peak Ground Velocity at the same site. The observed parameters are compared to prior established threshold values and then converted into a single, dimensionless variable. A local alert level is issued at the recording site as soon as the empirical combination overcomes a given threshold. The three parameters are continuously measured along the recorded signals, starting from the P-wave arrival time, and progressively expanding the time window. A possible risk when using this approach is the inclusion of the S-waves in the analyzed P-wave signal portion, which may lead to an overestimation of the predicted ground shaking level. To minimize the S-wave contamination, an efficient algorithm for the automatic detection of the S-wave arrival time has been included. The algorithm is based on the real-time polarization analysis of the three-component seismogram and on the Singular Value Decomposition (SVD) (Rosenberger, 2010; Amoroso et al., 2012) and is able to distinguish variations in the polarization of the original signal, and to discriminate the dominant P-wave signal from the arrival of later S-wave phases. The performance of the method has been evaluated by defining successful, missed and false alarms, and counting the relative percentage, after applying the approach to a testing catalog of Italian earthquake records. The database we used for the system testing and calibration consists of more than 200 Italian events in a magnitude range 3.5 warning system.

  16. An early warning system for incursions of Bluetongue disease to the UK

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burgin, Laura; Sanders, Christopher; Carpenter, Simon; Mellor, Philip; Gloster, John

    2010-05-01

    Since 2006 northern Europe has been in the midst of an extensive epidemic of the animal disease, Bluetongue, which has cost the European economy hundreds of millions of euros due to death, sickness and movement restrictions of livestock. Bluetongue is spread by biting midges which can be carried for hundreds of kilometers on the wind. A scheme within the UK Met Office's dispersion model, the Numerical Atmospheric-dispersion Modelling Environment (NAME), has been developed to reflect the effects of meteorology on the long-distance transport of these midge vectors. The scheme is based on data from field and laboratory experiments carried out at the Institute for Animal Health, Pirbright. From these experiments, certain threshold values which define when midges do not become airborne have been obtained for several meteorological variables. Within NAME, particles representing midges are removed from the model atmosphere if these thresholds are exceeded. Following outbreaks of the disease in Belgium and the Netherlands in 2006, an early-warning website was developed based on the model, to provide the UK Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) advance knowledge of potential disease incursions by infected midges carried on the wind across the English Channel. The service has been in daily operation since April 2007 and correctly warned of the high risk of an incursion of infected midges causing the first UK outbreak in Suffolk on 4 August 2007. The website has since been expanded to predict potential incursions of disease into the Channel Islands and Northern Ireland and was used to inform on vaccination policy decisions by Defra and the Scottish government.

  17. Caltech/USGS Southern California Seismic Network (SCSN): Infrastructure upgrade to support Earthquake Early Warning (EEW)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhadha, R. J.; Hauksson, E.; Boese, M.; Felizardo, C.; Thomas, V. I.; Yu, E.; Given, D. D.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    The SCSN is the modern digital ground motion seismic network in Southern California and performs the following tasks: 1) Operates remote seismic stations and the central data processing systems in Pasadena; 2) Generates and reports real-time products including location, magnitude, ShakeMap, aftershock probabilities and others; 3) Responds to FEMA, CalOES, media, and public inquiries about earthquakes; 4) Manages the production, archival, and distribution of waveforms, phase picks, and other data at the SCEDC; 5) Contributes to development and implementation of the demonstration EEW system called CISN ShakeAlert. Initially, the ShakeAlert project was funded through the US Geological Survey (USGS) and in early 2012, the Gordon and Betty Moore Foundation provided three years of new funding for EEW research and development for the US west coast. Recently, we have also received some Urban Areas Security Initiative (UASI) funding to enhance the EEW capabilities for the local UASI region by making our system overall faster, more reliable and redundant than the existing system. The additional and upgraded stations will be capable of decreasing latency and ensuring data delivery by using more reliable and redundant telemetry pathways. Overall, this will enhance the reliability of the earthquake early warnings by providing denser station coverage and more resilient data centers than before. * Seismic Datalogger upgrade: replaces existing dataloggers with modern equipment capable of sending one-second uncompressed packets and utilizing redundant Ethernet telemetry. * GPS upgrade: replaces the existing GPS receivers and antennas, especially at "zipper array" sites near the major faults, with receivers that perform on-board precise point positioning to calculate position and velocity in real time and stream continuous data for use in EEW calculations. * New co-located seismic/GPS stations: increases station density and reduces early warning delays that are incurred by travel

  18. Moving towards the operational seismogeodesy component of earthquake and tsunami early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haase, J. S.; Bock, Y.; Geng, J.; Melgar, D.; Crowell, B. W.; Squibb, M. B.

    2013-12-01

    A robust technique for rapid estimation of extended earthquake source properties from seismogeodetic (combined seismic acceleration and GPS displacement) time series has been demonstrated for recent large events. By simulating the recording and analysis of GPS and seismic data in real time using Precise Point Positioning with Ambiguity Resolution (PPP-AR) we have determined the latency in creating a fast-Centroid Moment Tensor (fast-CMT) solution to be less than 3 minutes following the initiation of rupture for the 2011 M9.0 Tohoku-Oki tsunamigenic earthquake. This would have made an estimate of the ~290 km source length available in time to update an early warning of the impending tsunami with a better estimate of the wave height. Combining this information with wave gauge data, which could also be implemented in real time, provides improved estimates of tsunami run-up heights at coastal sites (see Melgar et al., 'Near-field tsunami models with rapid earthquake source inversions', this meeting). The fast-CMT method produces continuous updates of a static source inversion using many possible line source fault geometries to determine a rough estimate of the fault slip and area that does not rely on a priori assumptions about fault zone geometry. The key to this new capability is robust, fast, and accurate analysis of real-time 1Hz GPS data that incorporates the following advances: 1) a real time GPS service that produces satellite clocks and fractional cycle biases available for positioning individual sites within the San Andreas fault system and Cascadia subduction zone. This means cpu requirements increase linearly with the number of sites in PPP mode, increasing the feasibility of analyzing data from large dense networks in real time; 2) the tightly-coupled Kalman filter combination of GPS observations with local accelerometer data. This provides ambiguity resolution comparable in quality to a network solution and real-time precision of mitigate errors due to

  19. The application of trajectory analysis for an early warning system in STEM courses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Un Jung

    The retention of STEM (science, technology, engineering, and mathematics) majors has become a national concern. "Early warning systems" (EWS) are being developed to identify students who perform poorly early in the semester so that interventions can be implemented. The research reported here utilizes clicker scores and review quiz scores collected in every class session for the longitudinal analysis, as well as pre-course concept inventory scores and self-reported student characteristics. Pre course concept inventory scores were significantly predictive of final course grade. Student demographic characteristics had a smaller fraction of final course grade explained. The cumulative average student clicker score was highly predictive of final course grade. The cumulative average student review quiz score was also highly predictive of final course grade in spring 2014 semester, but was less predictive and less correlated with final course grade in the fall 2014 semester. The trajectories of transformed clicker and review quiz scores identified student longitudinal patterns of scores. Students with scores that were high at the beginning of the semester had consistently higher scores through the semester. In addition, the Bayesian Posterior Probabilities (BPPs) of clicker score trajectory were significant predictors of final course grade. In a trajectory analysis of ACF and PACF, the number of zero clicker scores was associated with final course grade. In conclusion, pre-course concept inventory scores and clicker scores were effective predictive variables for an EWS.

  20. Genetic Circuit for the Early Warning of Lung Cancer using iBioSim

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Xiang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available With the development of molecular biology and gene-engineering technology, gene diagnosis has been an emerging approach for modern life sciences. Biological marker, recognized as the hot topic in the molecular and gene fields, has important values in early diagnosis, malignant tumour stage, treatment and therapeutic efficacy evaluation. The design of markers detection genetic circuit system for lung cancer is presented as a new method to provide basis for early warning and therapy. The system consists of three single-marker detection circuits and an integration circuit. The single-marker detection circuit provides an instantaneous low level when target marker’s concentration reaches the threshold. The integration circuit uses gene and gate to complete the output data fusion from single-marker detection circuit through logic operations to finish the combined detection. All the structure is modelled and analyzed by iBioSim through the biochemical reactions of different gene circuits. The experimental result indicates that the whole lung cancer detection system can realize joint detection of tumor markers with good stability and sensitivity.

  1. Evaluation of Early Warning Scoring System and Nursing Guide Application in Post-Anaesthesia Care Unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pazar, Berrin; Yava, Ayla

    2013-12-01

    To determine the effect of nursing guide application developed for the present study and to evaluate the Early Warning Scoring System (EWSS) in post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). The study was carried out as a randomised-controlled experimental study. The study sample comprised of 123 adult patients having thoracic and abdominal surgery between January 2011 and April 2011 in the Anaesthesiology and Reanimation Department of a training and research hospital. Patients were randomised during the pre-operative period; the patients who were followed-up according to the EWSS and a nursing guide constituted the study group (SG=63) and the patients whose EWSS score was calculated but routine follow-up in PACU was not intervened constituted the control group (CG=60). During the PACU, complications developed in in 34.92% of SG patients and in 30.00% of CG patients. Of the SG patients, 95.45% developing complications and of the CG patients, 22.22% developing complications were treated in the first 10 minutes, and it was determined that in 61.12% of CG patients, complications were not treated. There was a significant difference between the SG and CG patients in terms of treatment duration against complications (pguide provides early determination and treatment of patients developing complications. Thus, it is recommended to use the EWSS and a nursing guide in PACU.

  2. Pediatric Early Warning Score and unplanned readmission to the pediatric intensive care unit.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandell, Iris M; Bynum, Francine; Marshall, Lori; Bart, Robert; Gold, Jeffrey I; Rubin, Sarah

    2015-10-01

    Early unplanned Pediatric Intensive Care Unit (PICU) readmission is associated with greater length of stay and mortality. No tools exist to identify children at risk for PICU readmission. The Pediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) currently identify children at risk for deterioration on the ward. Our primary objective was to evaluate the ability of PEWS to identify children at risk for unplanned PICU readmission. A single-center case-control study of 189 children (38 cases and 151 age-matched controls) 18years or younger transferred from the PICU to the pediatric ward from January 1, 2010-March 30, 2013, at an urban tertiary care children's hospital was conducted. Thirty-eight cases had unplanned PICU readmission within 48hours of transfer to pediatric ward, whereas 151 controls were not readmitted. The PEWS assigned prior to PICU discharge and first PEWS assigned on the ward were collected for cases and controls. Each 1-point increase in the PEWS score significantly increased risk of PICU readmission (odds ratios [95% confidence intervals], 1.6 [1.12-2.27; P = .009] and 1.89 [1.33-2.69; P scores were associated with increased risk of unplanned PICU readmission. However, cutoff scores are not sensitive or specific enough to be clinically useful. Adding chronic disease variables may improve the clinical utility of cutoff PEWS scores. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Validation of the National Early Warning Score in the prehospital setting.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silcock, Daniel J; Corfield, Alasdair R; Gowens, Paul A; Rooney, Kevin D

    2015-04-01

    Early intervention and response to deranged physiological parameters in the critically ill patient improves outcomes. A National Early Warning Score (NEWS) based on physiological observations has been developed for use throughout the National Health Service (NHS) in the UK. Although a good predictor of mortality and deterioration in inpatients, its performance in the prehospital setting is largely untested. This study aimed to assess the validity of the NEWS in unselected prehospital patients. All clinical observations taken by emergency ambulance crews transporting patients to a single hospital were collated along with information relating to hospital outcome over a two month period. The performance of the NEWS in identifying the endpoints of 48h and 30 day mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, and a combined endpoint of 48h mortality or ICU admission was analysed. 1684 patients were analysed. All three of the primary endpoints and the combined endpoint were associated with higher NEWS scores (pearly involvement of senior Emergency Department staff and appropriate critical care. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. Global situational awareness and early warning of high-consequence climate change.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Backus, George A.; Carr, Martin J.; Boslough, Mark Bruce Elrick

    2009-08-01

    Global monitoring systems that have high spatial and temporal resolution, with long observational baselines, are needed to provide situational awareness of the Earth's climate system. Continuous monitoring is required for early warning of high-consequence climate change and to help anticipate and minimize the threat. Global climate has changed abruptly in the past and will almost certainly do so again, even in the absence of anthropogenic interference. It is possible that the Earth's climate could change dramatically and suddenly within a few years. An unexpected loss of climate stability would be equivalent to the failure of an engineered system on a grand scale, and would affect billions of people by causing agricultural, economic, and environmental collapses that would cascade throughout the world. The probability of such an abrupt change happening in the near future may be small, but it is nonzero. Because the consequences would be catastrophic, we argue that the problem should be treated with science-informed engineering conservatism, which focuses on various ways a system can fail and emphasizes inspection and early detection. Such an approach will require high-fidelity continuous global monitoring, informed by scientific modeling.

  5. The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) and Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) - Application in Early Warning Systems for Natural Hazard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lendholt, Matthias; Hammitzsch, Martin; Wächter, Joachim

    2010-05-01

    The Common Alerting Protocol (CAP) [1] is an XML-based data format for exchanging public warnings and emergencies between alerting technologies. In conjunction with the Emergency Data Exchange Language (EDXL) Distribution Element (-DE) [2] these data formats can be used for warning message dissemination in early warning systems for natural hazards. Application took place in the DEWS (Distance Early Warning System) [3] project where CAP serves as central message format containing both human readable warnings and structured data for automatic processing by message receivers. In particular the spatial reference capabilities are of paramount importance both in CAP and EDXL. Affected areas are addressable via geo codes like HASC (Hierarchical Administrative Subdivision Codes) [4] or UN/LOCODE [5] but also with arbitrary polygons that can be directly generated out of GML [6]. For each affected area standardized criticality values (urgency, severity and certainty) have to be set but also application specific key-value-pairs like estimated time of arrival or maximum inundation height can be specified. This enables - together with multilingualism, message aggregation and message conversion for different dissemination channels - the generation of user-specific tailored warning messages. [1] CAP, http://www.oasis-emergency.org/cap [2] EDXL-DE, http://docs.oasis-open.org/emergency/edxl-de/v1.0/EDXL-DE_Spec_v1.0.pdf [3] DEWS, http://www.dews-online.org [4] HASC, "Administrative Subdivisions of Countries: A Comprehensive World Reference, 1900 Through 1998" ISBN 0-7864-0729-8 [5] UN/LOCODE, http://www.unece.org/cefact/codesfortrade/codes_index.htm [6] GML, http://www.opengeospatial.org/standards/gml

  6. Real-time earthquake monitoring at the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System for tsunami advisories in the Indian Ocean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E Uma Devi

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available The Indian Tsunami Early Warning System situated at Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, India, monitors real-time earthquake activity throughout the Indian Ocean to evaluate potential tsunamigenic earthquakes. The functions of the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System earthquake monitoring system include detection, location and determination of the magnitude of potentially tsunamigenic earthquakes occurring in the Indian Ocean. The real-time seismic monitoring network comprises 17 broadband Indian seismic stations transmitting real-time earthquake data through VSAT communication to the central receiving stations located at the Indian Meteorological Department, New Delhi, and the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services, Hyderabad, simultaneously for processing and interpretation. In addition to this, earthquake data from around 300 global seismic stations are also received at the Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services in near-real-time. Most of these data are provided by IRIS Global Seismographic Network and GEOFON Extended Virtual Network through Internet. The Indian National Center for Ocean Information Services uses SeisComP3 software for auto-location of earthquake parameters (location, magnitude, focal depth and origin time. All earthquakes of Mw >5.0 are auto-located within 5–10 minutes of the occurrence of the earthquake. Since its inception in October 2007 to date, the warning centre has monitored and reported 55 tsunamigenic earthquakes (under-sea and near coast earthquakes of magnitude ⩾6.5 in the Indian Ocean region. Comparison of the earthquake parameters (elapsed time, magnitude, focal depth and location estimated by the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System with the US Geological Survey suggests that the Indian Tsunami Early Warning System is performing well and has achieved the target set up by the Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission.

  7. Developing Drought Outlook Forums in Support of a Regional Drought Early Warning Information System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mcnutt, C. A.; Pulwarty, R. S.; Darby, L. S.; Verdin, J. P.; Webb, R. S.

    2011-12-01

    The National Integrated Drought Information System (NIDIS) Act of 2006 (P.L. 109-430) charged NIDIS with developing the leadership and partnerships necessary to implement an integrated national drought monitoring and forecasting system that creates a drought "early warning system". The drought early warning information system should be capable of providing accurate, timely and integrated information on drought conditions at the relevant spatial scale to facilitate proactive decisions aimed at minimizing the economic, social and ecosystem losses associated with drought. As part of this effort, NIDIS has held Regional Drought Outlook Forums in several regions of the U.S. The purpose of the Forums is to inform practices that reduce vulnerability to drought through an interactive and collaborative process that includes the users of the information. The Forums have focused on providing detailed assessments of present conditions and impacts, comparisons with past drought events, and seasonal predictions including discussion of the state and expected evolution of the El Niño Southern Oscillation phenomena. Regional Climate Outlook Forums (RCOFs) that include close interaction between information providers and users are not a new concept, however. RCOFs started in Africa in the 1990s in response to the 1997-98 El Niño and have since expanded to South America, Asia, the Pacific islands, and the Caribbean. As a result of feedback from the RCOFs a large body of research has gone into improving seasonal forecasts and the capacity of the users to apply the information in a way that improves their decision-making. Over time, it has become clear that more is involved than just improving the interaction between the climate forecasters and decision-makers. NIDIS is using the RCOF approach as one component in a larger effort to develop Regional Drought Early Warning Information Systems (RDEWS) around the U.S. Using what has been learned over the past decade in the RCOF process

  8. How to Decide? Multi-Objective Early-Warning Monitoring Networks for Water Suppliers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bode, Felix; Loschko, Matthias; Nowak, Wolfgang

    2015-04-01

    Groundwater is a resource for drinking water and hence needs to be protected from contaminations. However, many well catchments include an inventory of known and unknown risk sources, which cannot be eliminated, especially in urban regions. As a matter of risk control, all these risk sources should be monitored. A one-to-one monitoring situation for each risk source would lead to a cost explosion and is even impossible for unknown risk sources. However, smart optimization concepts could help to find promising low-cost monitoring network designs. In this work we develop a concept to plan monitoring networks using multi-objective optimization. Our considered objectives are to maximize the probability of detecting all contaminations, to enhance the early warning time before detected contaminations reach the drinking water well, and to minimize the installation and operating costs of the monitoring network. Using multi-objectives optimization, we avoid the problem of having to weight these objectives to a single objective-function. These objectives are clearly competing, and it is impossible to know their mutual trade-offs beforehand - each catchment differs in many points and it is hardly possible to transfer knowledge between geological formations and risk inventories. To make our optimization results more specific to the type of risk inventory in different catchments we do risk prioritization of all known risk sources. Due to the lack of the required data, quantitative risk ranking is impossible. Instead, we use a qualitative risk ranking to prioritize the known risk sources for monitoring. Additionally, we allow for the existence of unknown risk sources that are totally uncertain in location and in their inherent risk. Therefore, they can neither be located nor ranked. Instead, we represent them by a virtual line of risk sources surrounding the production well. We classify risk sources into four different categories: severe, medium and tolerable for known risk

  9. Searching for early-warning signals of impending dieback and death in Mediterranean oaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colangelo, Michele; Ripullone, Francesco; Julio Camarero, Jesus; De Micco, Veronica; Gazol, Antonio; Gentilesca, Tiziana; Borghetti, Marco

    2017-04-01

    In recent decades, forest dieback episodes have been recorded worldwide affecting different tree species. In particular, several cases of widespread dieback and increased mortality rates have been described for Mediterranean oak (Quercus spp.) species. These dieback cases are revealing the high vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks, manifested as a loss in tree vigour (leaf shedding, canopy and shoot dieback), growth decline and sometimes tree death, as a consequence of temperatures rising at unprecedented rates and drying trends. However, in the wake of the so-called 'oak decline phenomenon', the attention on these species has generally been limited, perhaps because they are often regarded as well-adapted to the dry conditions typical of Mediterranean areas. Indeed, according to recent studies, the reduced size, the ability to sprout and the anisohydric behavior of Mediterranean oak species (reduced control of water loss and high stomatal conductance rates) would make them better adapted to withstand heat and drought stress then taller and non-sprouting isohydric species (e.g. conifer, with strict control of water loss by closing stomata). Here, we investigated the vulnerability of Mediterranean oaks by comparing neighboring living and recently dead trees in species with low (Q. pubescens), intermediate (Q. cerris, Q. frainetto) and high (Q. robur) sensitivity to water shortage. We analysed changes in tree vigour using tree-ring width and functional wood anatomical traits as proxies to search for early-warning signals of dieback, in connection with the main proposed dieback mechanisms (hydraulic failure and/or carbon starvation). We also modeled the probability of tree death as a function of tree size (diameter, height) by quantifying recent changes in growth and wood anatomy along tree-ring series. Contrary to the general concept that trees tend to experience increasing cavitation risk with increasing height, our studies show that smaller oaks are more prone to die

  10. A new, ultra-low latency data transmission protocol for Earthquake Early Warning Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hill, P.; Hicks, S. P.; McGowan, M.

    2016-12-01

    One measure used to assess the performance of Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWS) is the delay time between earthquake origin and issued alert. EEWS latency is dependent on a number of sources (e.g. P-wave propagation, digitisation, transmission, receiver processing, triggering, event declaration). Many regional seismic networks use the SEEDlink protocol; however, packet size is fixed to 512-byte miniSEED records, resulting in transmission latencies of >0.5 s. Data packetisation is seen as one of the main sources of delays in EEWS (Brown et al., 2011). Optimising data-logger and telemetry configurations is a cost-effective strategy to improve EEWS alert times (Behr et al., 2015). Digitisers with smaller, selectable packets can result in faster alerts (Sokos et al., 2016). We propose a new seismic protocol for regional seismic networks benefiting low-latency applications such as EEWS. The protocol, based on Güralp's existing GDI-link format is an efficient and flexible method to exchange data between seismic stations and data centers for a range of network configurations. The main principle is to stream data sample-by-sample instead of fixed-length packets to minimise transmission latency. Self-adaptive packetisation with compression maximises available telemetry bandwidth. Highly flexible metadata fields within GDI-link are compatible with existing miniSEED definitions. Data is sent as integers or floats, supporting a wide range of data formats, including discrete parameters such as Pd & τC for on-site earthquake early warning. Other advantages include: streaming station state-of-health information, instrument control, support of backfilling and fail-over strategies during telemetry outages. Based on tests carried out on the Güralp Minimus data-logger, we show our new protocol can reduce transmission latency to as low as 1 ms. The low-latency protocol is currently being implemented with common processing packages. The results of these tests will help to

  11. ElarmS Earthquake Early Warning System 2016 Performance and New Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chung, A. I.; Allen, R. M.; Hellweg, M.; Henson, I. H.; Neuhauser, D. S.

    2016-12-01

    The ElarmS earthquake early warning system has been detecting earthquakes throughout California since 2007. It is one of the algorithms that contributes to the West Coast ShakeAlert, a prototype earthquake early warning system being developed for the US West Coast. ElarmS is also running in the Pacific Northwest, and in Israel, Chile, Turkey, and Peru in test mode. We summarize the performance of the ElarmS system over the past year and review some of the more problematic events that the system has encountered. During the first half of 2016 (2016-01-01 through 2016-07-21), ElarmS successfully alerted on all events with ANSS catalog magnitudes M>3 in the Los Angeles area. The mean alert time for these 9 events was just 4.84 seconds. In the San Francisco Bay Area, ElarmS detected 26 events with ANSS catalog magnitudes M>3. The alert times for these events is 9.12 seconds. The alert times are longer in the Bay Area than in the Los Angeles area due to the sparser network of stations in the Bay Area. 7 Bay Area events were not detected by ElarmS. These events occurred in areas where there is less dense station coverage. In addition, ElarmS sent alerts for 13 of the 16 moderately-sized (ANSS catalog magnitudes M>4) events that occurred throughout the state of California. One of those missed events was a M4.5 that occurred far offshore in the northernmost part of the state. The other two missed events occurred inland in regions with sparse station coverage. Over the past year, we have worked towards the implementation of a new filterbank teleseismic filter algorithm, which we will discuss. Other than teleseismic events, a significant cause of false alerts and severely mislocated events is spurious triggers being associated with triggers from a real earthquake. Here, we address new approaches to filtering out problematic triggers.

  12. Towards developing drought impact functions to advance drought monitoring and early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bachmair, Sophie; Stahl, Kerstin; Hannaford, Jamie; Svoboda, Mark

    2015-04-01

    In natural hazard analysis, damage functions (also referred to as vulnerability or susceptibility functions) relate hazard intensity to the negative effects of the hazard event, often expressed as damage ratio or monetary loss. While damage functions for floods and seismic hazards have gained considerable attention, there is little knowledge on how drought intensity translates into ecological and socioeconomic impacts. One reason for this is the multifaceted nature of drought affecting different domains of the hydrological cycle and different sectors of human activity (for example, recognizing meteorological - agricultural - hydrological - socioeconomic drought) leading to a wide range of drought impacts. Moreover, drought impacts are often non-structural and hard to quantify or monetarize (e.g. impaired navigability of streams, bans on domestic water use, increased mortality of aquatic species). Knowledge on the relationship between drought intensity and drought impacts, i.e. negative environmental, economic or social effects experienced under drought conditions, however, is vital to identify critical thresholds for drought impact occurrence. Such information may help to improve drought monitoring and early warning (M&EW), one goal of the international DrIVER project (Drought Impacts: Vulnerability thresholds in monitoring and Early-warning Research). The aim of this study is to test the feasibility of designing "drought impact functions" for case study areas in Europe (Germany and UK) and the United States to derive thresholds meaningful for drought impact occurrence; to account for the multidimensionality of drought impacts, we use the broader term "drought impact function" over "damage function". First steps towards developing empirical drought impact functions are (1) to identify meaningful indicators characterizing the hazard intensity (e.g. indicators expressing a precipitation or streamflow deficit), (2) to identify suitable variables representing impacts

  13. Developing a Nationwide Early Warning System of Meteorological Disasters for the Mongolian Pastoralism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shinoda, M.; Tachiiri, K.; Morinaga, Y.; Klinkenberg, B.

    2007-12-01

    Among natural disasters, drought affected the most people worldwide during the past few decades. Since the late 1970s, there has been a shift in El Niño-Southern Oscillation toward more warm events, closely related to a worldwide trend for intensified drought. Pastoral livestock husbandry, a major industry in Mongolia, has repeatedly suffered from drought and dzud (anomalous climatic and/or land-surface conditions leading to significant livestock mortality in winter-spring) due to its dry, cold climate. Droughts and dzuds between 1999 and 2002 killed 8.2 million livestock, which accounts for about one forth of the total number of livestock in Mongolia, and 3.0 million female livestock miscarried. The present paper proposes an early warning system (EWS) of the Mongolian meteorological disasters that is suitable for the environment and socio-economy. Although the state-of-the-art long-range weather forecasting has not yet produced reliable quantitative information, timely and accurate monitoring of the climate memory of land-surface anomaly conditions (such as soil moisture, pasture, and livestock) that resulted, with a time lag, from summer deficit rainfall will enable us to deliver early warnings of possible drought and dzud and finally to mitigate their effects on livestock husbandry. With this background in mind, the first attempt has been made to integrate operationally observed ground data and newly introduced remote sensing data in the context of climate memory to be overlaid on a nationwide map. A regression tree model is being developed in order to predict livestock mortality; the predictor variables included two indices developed from remote sensing data--the Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) and the Snow Water Equivalent (SWE) --as well as the previous year's livestock numbers and mortality. According to the regression tree model, the most serious livestock mortality in winter-spring was associated with low NDVI values in August of the

  14. Efforts Toward an Early Warning Crop Monitor for Countries at Risk

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budde, M. E.; Verdin, J. P.; Barker, B.; Humber, M. L.; Becker-Reshef, I.; Justice, C. O.; Magadzire, T.; Galu, G.; Rodriguez, M.; Jayanthi, H.

    2015-12-01

    Assessing crop growing conditions is a crucial aspect of monitoring food security in the developing world. One of the core components of the Group on Earth Observations - Global Agricultural Monitoring (GEOGLAM) targets monitoring Countries at Risk (component 3). The Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) has a long history of utilizing remote sensing and crop modeling to address food security threats in the form of drought, floods, pest infestation, and climate change in some of the world's most at risk countries. FEWS NET scientists at the U.S. Geological Survey Earth Resources Observation and Science (EROS) Center and the University of Maryland Department of Geography have undertaken efforts to address component 3, by promoting the development of a collaborative Early Warning Crop Monitor (EWCM) that would specifically address Countries at Risk. A number of organizations utilize combinations of satellite earth observations, field campaigns, network partner inputs, and crop modeling techniques to monitor crop conditions throughout the world. Agencies such as the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO), United Nations World Food Programme (WFP), and the European Commission's Joint Research Centre (JRC) provide agricultural monitoring information and reporting across a broad number of areas at risk and in many cases, organizations routinely report on the same countries. The latter offers an opportunity for collaboration on crop growing conditions among agencies. The reduction of uncertainty and achievement of consensus will help strengthen confidence in decisions to commit resources for mitigation of acute food insecurity and support for resilience and development programs. In addition, the development of a collaborative global EWCM will provide each of the partner agencies with the ability to quickly gather crop condition information for areas where they may not typically work or have access to local networks. Using a framework

  15. OPERATIONAL REMOTE SENSING SERVICES IN NORTH EASTERN REGION OF INDIA FOR NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT, EARLY WARNING FOR DISASTER RISK REDUCTION AND DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION AND SERVICES

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. L. N. Raju

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available North Eastern Region (NER of India comprising of eight states considered to be most unique and one of the most challenging regions to govern due to its unique physiographic condition, rich biodiversity, disaster prone and diverse socio-economic characteristics. Operational Remote Sensing services increased manifolds in the region with the establishment of North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC in the year 2000. Since inception, NESAC has been providing remote sensing services in generating inventory, planning and developmental activities, and management of natural resources, disasters and dissemination of information and services through geo-web services for NER. The operational remote sensing services provided by NESAC can be broadly divided into three categories viz. natural resource planning and developmental services, disaster risk reduction and early warning services and information dissemination through geo-portal services. As a apart of natural resources planning and developmental services NESAC supports the state forest departments in preparing the forest working plans by providing geospatial inputs covering entire NER, identifying the suitable culturable wastelands for cultivation of silkworm food plants, mapping of natural resources such as land use/land cover, wastelands, land degradation etc. on temporal basis. In the area of disaster risk reduction, NESAC has initiated operational services for early warning and post disaster assessment inputs for flood early warning system (FLEWS using satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling etc.; forest fire alert system with actionable attribute information; Japanese Encephalitis Early Warning System (JEWS based on mosquito vector abundance, pig population and historical disease intensity and agriculture drought monitoring for the region. The large volumes of geo-spatial databases generated as part of operational services are made available to the

  16. Operational Remote Sensing Services in North Eastern Region of India for Natural Resources Management, Early Warning for Disaster Risk Reduction and Dissemination of Information and Services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raju, P. L. N.; Sarma, K. K.; Barman, D.; Handique, B. K.; Chutia, D.; Kundu, S. S.; Das, R. Kr.; Chakraborty, K.; Das, R.; Goswami, J.; Das, P.; Devi, H. S.; Nongkynrih, J. M.; Bhusan, K.; Singh, M. S.; Singh, P. S.; Saikhom, V.; Goswami, C.; Pebam, R.; Borgohain, A.; Gogoi, R. B.; Singh, N. R.; Bharali, A.; Sarma, D.; Lyngdoh, R. B.; Mandal, P. P.; Chabukdhara, M.

    2016-06-01

    North Eastern Region (NER) of India comprising of eight states considered to be most unique and one of the most challenging regions to govern due to its unique physiographic condition, rich biodiversity, disaster prone and diverse socio-economic characteristics. Operational Remote Sensing services increased manifolds in the region with the establishment of North Eastern Space Applications Centre (NESAC) in the year 2000. Since inception, NESAC has been providing remote sensing services in generating inventory, planning and developmental activities, and management of natural resources, disasters and dissemination of information and services through geo-web services for NER. The operational remote sensing services provided by NESAC can be broadly divided into three categories viz. natural resource planning and developmental services, disaster risk reduction and early warning services and information dissemination through geo-portal services. As a apart of natural resources planning and developmental services NESAC supports the state forest departments in preparing the forest working plans by providing geospatial inputs covering entire NER, identifying the suitable culturable wastelands for cultivation of silkworm food plants, mapping of natural resources such as land use/land cover, wastelands, land degradation etc. on temporal basis. In the area of disaster risk reduction, NESAC has initiated operational services for early warning and post disaster assessment inputs for flood early warning system (FLEWS) using satellite remote sensing, numerical weather prediction, hydrological modeling etc.; forest fire alert system with actionable attribute information; Japanese Encephalitis Early Warning System (JEWS) based on mosquito vector abundance, pig population and historical disease intensity and agriculture drought monitoring for the region. The large volumes of geo-spatial databases generated as part of operational services are made available to the administrators and

  17. Forecasting weed distributions using climate data: a GIS early warning tool

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jarnevich, Catherine S.; Holcombe, Tracy R.; Barnett, David T.; Stohlgren, Thomas J.; Kartesz, John T.

    2010-01-01

    The number of invasive exotic plant species establishing in the United States is continuing to rise. When prevention of exotic species from entering into a country fails at the national level and the species establishes, reproduces, spreads, and becomes invasive, the most successful action at a local level is early detection followed eradication. We have developed a simple geographic information system (GIS) analysis for developing watch lists for early detection of invasive exotic plants that relies upon currently available species distribution data coupled with environmental data to aid in describing coarse-scale potential distributions. This GIS analysis tool develops environmental envelopes for species based upon the known distribution of a species thought to be invasive and represents the first approximation of its potential habitat while the necessary data are collected to perform more in­-depth analyses. To validate this method we looked at a time series of species distributions for 66 species in Pacific Northwest, and northern Rocky Mountain counties. The time series analysis presented here did select counties that the invasive exotic weeds invaded in subsequent years, showing that this technique could be useful in developing watch lists for the spread of particular exotic species. We applied this same habitat-matching model based upon bioclimaric envelopes to 100 invasive exotics with various levels of known distributions within continental U.S. counties. For species with climatically limited distributions, county watch lists describe county-specific vulnerability to invasion. Species with matching habitats in a county would be added to that county's list. These watch lists can influence management decisions for early warning, control prioritization, and targeted research to determine specific locations within vulnerable counties. This tool provides useful information for rapid assessment of the potential distribution based upon climate envelopes of

  18. Early-Warning Method of Train Running Safety of a High-Speed Railway Bridge Based on Transverse Vibration Monitoring

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Liang Ding

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Making use of long-term transverse vibration monitoring data of DaShengGuan Bridge, the early-warning method of train running safety of the high-speed railway bridge is established by adopting principal component analysis (PCA method. Firstly, the root mean square (RMS of the transverse acceleration of the main girder is used as the monitoring parameter for the train running safety. The correlation model between the RMS values measured from different positions is further adopted as the evaluating model for the train running safety. Finally, the effects of the environmental changes on the evaluating model are eliminated using the PCA method and the warning index for the train running safety is further constructed. The analysis results show that the correlation between the RMS values of the accelerations from different measuring positions on the main girder can be analyzed by a quadratic polynomial fitting model. The PCA method can effectively remove the environmental effects on the quadratic polynomial fitting model. The proposed warning method provides a good capability for detecting the abnormal changes of the measured transverse accelerations and hence it is suitable for early-warning of the train running safety.

  19. Design Principles for resilient cyber-physical Early Warning Systems - Challenges, Experiences, Design Patterns, and Best Practices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gensch, S.; Wächter, J.; Schnor, B.

    2014-12-01

    Early warning systems (EWS) are safety-critical IT-infrastructures that serve the purpose of potentially saving lives or assets by observing real-world phenomena and issuing timely warning products to authorities and communities. An EWS consists of sensors, communication networks, data centers, simulation platforms, and dissemination channels. The components of this cyber-physical system may all be affected by both natural hazards and malfunctions of components alike. Resilience engineering so far has mostly been applied to safety-critical systems and processes in transportation (aviation, automobile), construction and medicine. Early warning systems need equivalent techniques to compensate for failures, and furthermore means to adapt to changing threats, emerging technology and research findings. We present threats and pitfalls from our experiences with the German and Indonesian tsunami early warning system, as well as architectural, technological and organizational concepts employed that can enhance an EWS' resilience. The current EWS is comprised of a multi-type sensor data upstream part, different processing and analysis engines, a decision support system, and various warning dissemination channels. Each subsystem requires a set of approaches towards ensuring stable functionality across system layer boundaries, including also institutional borders. Not only must services be available, but also produce correct results. Most sensors are distributed components with restricted resources, communication channels and power supply. An example for successful resilience engineering is the power capacity based functional management for buoy and tide gauge stations. We discuss various fault-models like cause and effect models on linear pathways, interaction of multiple events, complex and non-linear interaction of assumedly reliable subsystems and fault tolerance means implemented to tackle these threats.

  20. Rainfall height stochastic modelling as a support tool for landslides early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capparelli, G.; Giorgio, M.; Greco, R.; Versace, P.

    2009-04-01

    Occurrence of landslides is uneasy to predict, since it is affected by a number of variables, such as mechanical and hydraulic soil properties, slope morphology, vegetation coverage, rainfall spatial and temporal variability. Although heavy landslides frequently occurred in Campania, southern Italy, during the last decade, no complete data sets are available for natural slopes where landslides occurred. As a consequence, landslide risk assessment procedures and early warning systems in Campania still rely on simple empirical models based on correlation between daily rainfall records and observed landslides, like FLAIR model [Versace et al., 2003]. Effectiveness of such systems could be improved by reliable quantitative rainfall prediction. In mountainous areas, rainfall spatial and temporal variability are very pronounced due to orographic effects, making predictions even more complicated. Existing rain gauge networks are not dense enough to resolve the small scale spatial variability, and the same limitation of spatial resolution affects rainfall height maps provided by radar sensors as well as by meteorological physically based models. Therefore, analysis of on-site recorded rainfall height time series still represents the most effective approach for a reliable prediction of local temporal evolution of rainfall. Hydrological time series analysis is a widely studied field in hydrology, often carried out by means of autoregressive models, such as AR and ARMA [Box and Jenkins, 1976]. Sometimes exogenous information coming from additional series of observations is also taken into account, and the models are called ARX and ARMAX (e.g. Salas [1992]). Such models gave the best results when applied to the analysis of autocorrelated hydrological time series, like river flow or level time series. Conversely, they are not able to model the behaviour of intermittent time series, like point rainfall height series usually are, especially when recorded with short sampling time

  1. Collaborative community hazard exposure mapping: Distant Early Warning radar sites in Alaska's North Slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brady, M.

    2015-12-01

    A method to produce hazard exposure maps that are developed in collaboration with local coastal communities is the focus of this research. Typically efforts to map community exposure to climate threats over large areas have limited consideration of local perspectives about associated risks, constraining their utility for local management. This problem is especially acute in remote locations such as the Arctic where there are unique vulnerabilities to coastal threats that can be fully understood only through inclusion of community stakeholders. Through collaboration with community members, this study identifies important coastal assets and places and surveys local perspectives of exposure to climate threats along Alaska's vast North Slope coastline spanning multiple municipalities. To model physical exposure, the study adapts the U.S. Geological Survey's (USGS) coastal vulnerability index (CVI) to the Arctic context by incorporating the effects of open water distance determined by sea ice extent, and assigning CVI values to coastal assets and places according to direction and proximity. The study found that in addition to concerns about exposed municipal and industrial assets, North Slope communities viewed exposure of traditional activity sites as presenting a particular risk for communities. Highly exposed legacy Cold War Distant Early Warning Line sites are of particular concern with impacts ranging from financial risk to contamination of sensitive coastal marine environments. This research demonstrates a method to collaboratively map community exposure to coastal climate threats to better understand local risks and produce locally usable exposure maps.

  2. Early Warning Systems of natural disasters in the frame of EUNADICS-AV

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenot, Hugues; Theys, Nicolas; Clarisse, Lieven; Kopp, Anna; Graf, Kaspar; Mona, Lucia; Coltelli, Mauro; Peltonen, Tuomas; Hirtl, Marcus; Virtanen, Timo; Nína Petersen, Guðrún

    2017-04-01

    Aviation is one of the most critical infrastructures of the 21st century. In Europe, safe flight operations, air traffic management and air traffic control are shared responsibilities of EUROCONTROL, national authorities, airlines and pilots. All stakeholders have one common goal, namely to warrant and maintain the safety of flight crews and passengers. Currently, however, there is a significant gap in the availability of real-time hazard measurement and monitoring information for airborne hazards. The main objective of the new Horizon 2020 project EUNADICS-AV (European Natural Airborne Disaster Information and Coordination System for Aviation; http://www.eunadics.eu) is to close this gap in data and information availability, enabling all stakeholders in the aviation system to obtain fast, coherent, and consistent information. Here we report on WP5 of EUNADICS-AV, the objective of which is to develop a prototype multi-hazard monitoring and early warning system. This task includes the development of a service for improved near real-time analyses (delay of a few hours maximum) of observations from satellite and ground-based platforms in order to detect ash and SO2 plumes (at the global scale), as well as desert sand dusts, fire plumes, and radioactive plumes.

  3. Modernization of the french early warning network in IRSN, experience feedback and perspectives

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Debayle, C.; Bardet, A.; Beguin-Leprieur, M.; Chevreuil, M.; Malfait, V.; Mechenet, V. [PRP-ENV/SESURE/LS2A (France)

    2014-07-01

    Developed few years after the Chernobyl accident in 1991, the French early warning network, Teleray, composed by 160 ambient dose equivalent rate probes, had operated for 15 years. It was decided in 2007 to modernize this facility in order to keep the infrastructure up-to-date. The sensors, the data transmission network and the supervising system were considered separately, but each development took care about the modularity of the final IT system. After a benchmarking period and technical choices, a five years project started with the aim to increase the number of probes to 420, especially around the French nuclear facilities, to change the technology and the IT system including a new data transmission network. The project kick-off was planned in june 2011, but due to the Fukushima accident, the French government asked IRSN to implement a probe on the roof of the French embassy in Tokyo on March 18, 2011. Results and feedback will be discussed, focusing on new approach about data analysis purpose. In 2014, the modernization of this network will be finished one year before it was expected and with significant cost savings. All the relevant phase of the project will be described, including time schedule and economical aspects, with the aim to describe how it is now considered fundamental to have complementary mobile systems in case of nuclear crisis. Document available in abstract form only. (authors)

  4. Fall Risk Assessment and Early-Warning for Toddler Behaviors at Home

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mau-Tsuen Yang

    2013-12-01

    Full Text Available Accidental falls are the major cause of serious injuries in toddlers, with most of these falls happening at home. Instead of providing immediate fall detection based on short-term observations, this paper proposes an early-warning childcare system to monitor fall-prone behaviors of toddlers at home. Using 3D human skeleton tracking and floor plane detection based on depth images captured by a Kinect system, eight fall-prone behavioral modules of toddlers are developed and organized according to four essential criteria: posture, motion, balance, and altitude. The final fall risk assessment is generated by a multi-modal fusion using either a weighted mean thresholding or a support vector machine (SVM classification. Optimizations are performed to determine local parameter in each module and global parameters of the multi-modal fusion. Experimental results show that the proposed system can assess fall risks and trigger alarms with an accuracy rate of 92% at a speed of 20 frames per second.

  5. Building an Early Warning Towards The Resilience of Islamic Banking in Indonesia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Dimas Bagus Kusuma

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available An early warning system (EWS is widely used as surveillance mechanism for preserving financial system stability. This paper addresses the issue of namely which macroeconomic indicators that are capable of signaling adverse shocks towards the resilience of Islamic banking in Indonesia. This research uses an extraction signal approach as EWS mechanism. The results suggest that there are several indicators that (1 IBRI, which is composed from standardized deposit and financing, is able to figure out the resilience of Islamic banking. The resilience of Islamic banking was considered stable since the index was moving below the normal line during the global financial crises, and (2 Some selected macro financial indicators, M2/reserve (M2res, credit growth (CG, real effective exchange rate (REER, and inflation rate (INF empirically show low noise to signal ratio. It means that these four variables are capable of signaling vulnerabilities due to adverse external shocks. The paper recommends that the resilience of Islamic banking needs to be supported by the resilience in the real sector.DOI: 10.15408/aiq.v9i1.3881

  6. Application of Advanced Wide Area Early Warning Systems with Adaptive Protection

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blumstein, Carl [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Cibulka, Lloyd [Univ. of California, Berkeley, CA (United States); Thorp, James [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); Centeno, Virgilio [Virginia Polytechnic Inst. and State Univ. (Virginia Tech), Blacksburg, VA (United States); King, Roger [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Reeves, Kari [Mississippi State Univ., Mississippi State, MS (United States); Ashrafi, Frank [Southern California Edison Co., Rosemead, CA (United States); Madani, Vahid [Pacific Gas & Electric Co., San Francisco, CA (United States)

    2014-09-30

    Recent blackouts of power systems in North America and throughout the world have shown how critical a reliable power system is to modern societies, and the enormous economic and societal damage a blackout can cause. It has been noted that unanticipated operation of protection systems can contribute to cascading phenomena and, ultimately, blackouts. This project developed and field-tested two methods of Adaptive Protection systems utilizing synchrophasor data. One method detects conditions of system stress that can lead to unintended relay operation, and initiates a supervisory signal to modify relay response in real time to avoid false trips. The second method detects the possibility of false trips of impedance relays as stable system swings “encroach” on the relays’ impedance zones, and produces an early warning so that relay engineers can re-evaluate relay settings. In addition, real-time synchrophasor data produced by this project was used to develop advanced visualization techniques for display of synchrophasor data to utility operators and engineers.

  7. Miniaturized Water Flow and Level Monitoring System for Flood Disaster Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ifedapo Abdullahi, Salami; Hadi Habaebi, Mohamed; Surya Gunawan, Teddy; Rafiqul Islam, MD

    2017-11-01

    This study presents the performance of a prototype miniaturised water flow and water level monitoring sensor designed towards supporting flood disaster early warning systems. The design involved selection of sensors, coding to control the system mechanism, and automatic data logging and storage. During the design phase, the apparatus was constructed where all the components were assembled using locally sourced items. Subsequently, under controlled laboratory environment, the system was tested by running water through the inlet during which the flow rate and rising water levels are automatically recorded and stored in a database via Microsoft Excel using Coolterm software. The system is simulated such that the water level readings measured in centimeters is output in meters using a multiplicative of 10. A total number of 80 readings were analyzed to evaluate the performance of the system. The result shows that the system is sensitive to water level rise and yielded accurate measurement of water level. But, the flow rate fluctuates due to the manual water supply that produced inconsistent flow. It was also observed that the flow sensor has a duty cycle of 50% of operating time under normal condition which implies that the performance of the flow sensor is optimal.

  8. Real-time 3-D space numerical shake prediction for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Huang, Yandan; Wei, Yongxiang

    2017-12-01

    In earthquake early warning systems, real-time shake prediction through wave propagation simulation is a promising approach. Compared with traditional methods, it does not suffer from the inaccurate estimation of source parameters. For computation efficiency, wave direction is assumed to propagate on the 2-D surface of the earth in these methods. In fact, since the seismic wave propagates in the 3-D sphere of the earth, the 2-D space modeling of wave direction results in inaccurate wave estimation. In this paper, we propose a 3-D space numerical shake prediction method, which simulates the wave propagation in 3-D space using radiative transfer theory, and incorporate data assimilation technique to estimate the distribution of wave energy. 2011 Tohoku earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed model. 2-D space model and 3-D space model are compared in this article, and the prediction results show that numerical shake prediction based on 3-D space model can estimate the real-time ground motion precisely, and overprediction is alleviated when using 3-D space model.

  9. Combining multiple earthquake models in real time for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Minson, Sarah E.; Wu, Stephen; Beck, James L; Heaton, Thomas H.

    2017-01-01

    The ultimate goal of earthquake early warning (EEW) is to provide local shaking information to users before the strong shaking from an earthquake reaches their location. This is accomplished by operating one or more real‐time analyses that attempt to predict shaking intensity, often by estimating the earthquake’s location and magnitude and then predicting the ground motion from that point source. Other EEW algorithms use finite rupture models or may directly estimate ground motion without first solving for an earthquake source. EEW performance could be improved if the information from these diverse and independent prediction models could be combined into one unified, ground‐motion prediction. In this article, we set the forecast shaking at each location as the common ground to combine all these predictions and introduce a Bayesian approach to creating better ground‐motion predictions. We also describe how this methodology could be used to build a new generation of EEW systems that provide optimal decisions customized for each user based on the user’s individual false‐alarm tolerance and the time necessary for that user to react.

  10. Early Warning Signals for Regime Transition in the Stable Boundary Layer: A Model Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Hooijdonk, I. G. S.; Moene, A. F.; Scheffer, M.; Clercx, H. J. H.; van de Wiel, B. J. H.

    2017-02-01

    The evening transition is investigated in an idealized model for the nocturnal boundary layer. From earlier studies it is known that the nocturnal boundary layer may manifest itself in two distinct regimes, depending on the ambient synoptic conditions: strong-wind or overcast conditions typically lead to weakly stable, turbulent nights; clear-sky and weak-wind conditions, on the other hand, lead to very stable, weakly turbulent conditions. Previously, the dynamical behaviour near the transition between these regimes was investigated in an idealized setting, relying on Monin-Obukhov (MO) similarity to describe turbulent transport. Here, we investigate a similar set-up, using direct numerical simulation; in contrast to MO-based models, this type of simulation does not need to rely on turbulence closure assumptions. We show that previous predictions are verified, but now independent of turbulence parametrizations. Also, it appears that a regime shift to the very stable state is signaled in advance by specific changes in the dynamics of the turbulent boundary layer. Here, we show how these changes may be used to infer a quantitative estimate of the transition point from the weakly stable boundary layer to the very stable boundary layer. In addition, it is shown that the idealized, nocturnal boundary-layer system shares important similarities with generic non-linear dynamical systems that exhibit critical transitions. Therefore, the presence of other, generic early warning signals is tested as well. Indeed, indications are found that such signals are present in stably stratified turbulent flows.

  11. Comparing operational performance of the Virtual Seismologist and FinDer for earthquake early warning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massin, Frederick; Boese, Maren; Cauzzi, Carlo V.; Clinton, John F.

    2017-04-01

    An earthquake early warning (EEW) system can provide fast and accurate parameter estimations across wide ranges of source dimensions, event types and epicentral distances by integrating event or ground motion parameter estimations from different EEW algorithms, each of them optimized for specific tasks. We have integrated two such independent EEW algorithms, Virtual Seismologist (VS) and FinDer in the popular open-source seismic monitoring framework, SeisComP3 (SC3). VS(SC3) provides rapid magnitude estimates for network-based point-source origins using conventional triggering and association, while FinDer matches evolving patterns of ground motion to track on-going rupture extent, and hence can provide accurate ground motion predictions for finite fault ruptures. SC3 is operated by a large number of regional seismic network across the world, many of which have a long term interest to develop EEW capabilities. By combining real-time performance with playbacks from significant events, we report on the configuration and performance of VS and FinDer in various different tectonic and monitoring environments - Switzerland, Nicaragua and Southern California. We discuss how real-time EEW reports from these complimentary algorithms can be combined in practice to provide a single EEW from the SC3 system.

  12. Building a Framework in Improving Drought Monitoring and Early Warning Systems in Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tadesse, T.; Wall, N.; Haigh, T.; Shiferaw, A. S.; Beyene, S.; Demisse, G. B.; Zaitchik, B.

    2015-12-01

    Decision makers need a basic understanding of the prediction models and products of hydro-climatic extremes and their suitability in time and space for strategic resource and development planning to develop mitigation and adaptation strategies. Advances in our ability to assess and predict climate extremes (e.g., droughts and floods) under evolving climate change suggest opportunity to improve management of climatic/hydrologic risk in agriculture and water resources. In the NASA funded project entitled, "Seasonal Prediction of Hydro-Climatic Extremes in the Greater Horn of Africa (GHA) under Evolving Climate Conditions to Support Adaptation Strategies," we are attempting to develop a framework that uses dialogue between managers and scientists on how to enhance the use of models' outputs and prediction products in the GHA as well as improve the delivery of this information in ways that can be easily utilized by managers. This process is expected to help our multidisciplinary research team obtain feedback on the models and forecast products. In addition, engaging decision makers is essential in evaluating the use of drought and flood prediction models and products for decision-making processes in drought and flood management. Through this study, we plan to assess information requirements to implement a robust Early Warning Systems (EWS) by engaging decision makers in the process. This participatory process could also help the existing EWSs in Africa and to develop new local and regional EWSs. In this presentation, we report the progress made in the past two years of the NASA project.

  13. Early Warning Monitoring of Natural and Engineered Slopes with Ground-Based Synthetic-Aperture Radar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Atzeni, C.; Barla, M.; Pieraccini, M.; Antolini, F.

    2015-01-01

    The first application of ground-based interferometric synthetic-aperture radar (GBInSAR) for slope monitoring dates back 13 years. Today, GBInSAR is used internationally as a leading-edge tool for near-real-time monitoring of surface slope movements in landslides and open pit mines. The success of the technology relies mainly on its ability to measure slope movements rapidly with sub-millimetric accuracy over wide areas and in almost any weather conditions. In recent years, GBInSAR has experienced significant improvements, due to the development of more advanced radar techniques in terms of both data processing and sensor performance. These improvements have led to widespread diffusion of the technology for early warning monitoring of slopes in both civil and mining applications. The main technical features of modern SAR technology for slope monitoring are discussed in this paper. A comparative analysis with other monitoring technologies is also presented along with some recent examples of successful slope monitoring.

  14. Evaluation of Early Warning Scoring System and Nursing Guide Application in Post-Anaesthesia Care Unit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pazar, Berrin; Yava, Ayla

    2013-01-01

    Objective To determine the effect of nursing guide application developed for the present study and to evaluate the Early Warning Scoring System (EWSS) in post-anaesthesia care unit (PACU). Methods The study was carried out as a randomised-controlled experimental study. The study sample comprised of 123 adult patients having thoracic and abdominal surgery between January 2011 and April 2011 in the Anaesthesiology and Reanimation Department of a training and research hospital. Patients were randomised during the pre-operative period; the patients who were followed-up according to the EWSS and a nursing guide constituted the study group (SG=63) and the patients whose EWSS score was calculated but routine follow-up in PACU was not intervened constituted the control group (CG=60). Results During the PACU, complications developed in in 34.92% of SG patients and in 30.00% of CG patients. Of the SG patients, 95.45% developing complications and of the CG patients, 22.22% developing complications were treated in the first 10 minutes, and it was determined that in 61.12% of CG patients, complications were not treated. There was a significant difference between the SG and CG patients in terms of treatment duration against complications (pearly determination and treatment of patients developing complications. Thus, it is recommended to use the EWSS and a nursing guide in PACU. PMID:27366375

  15. Centile-based early warning scores derived from statistical distributions of vital signs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tarassenko, Lionel; Clifton, David A; Pinsky, Michael R; Hravnak, Marilyn T; Woods, John R; Watkinson, Peter J

    2011-08-01

    To develop an early warning score (EWS) system based on the statistical properties of the vital signs in at-risk hospitalised patients. A large dataset comprising 64,622 h of vital-sign data, acquired from 863 acutely ill in-hospital patients using bedside monitors, was used to investigate the statistical properties of the four main vital signs. Normalised histograms and cumulative distribution functions were plotted for each of the four variables. A centile-based alerting system was modelled using the aggregated database. The means and standard deviations of our population's vital signs are very similar to those published in previous studies. When compared with EWS systems based on a future outcome, the cut-off values in our system are most different for respiratory rate and systolic blood pressure. With four-hourly observations in a 12-h shift, about 1 in 8 at-risk patients would trigger our alerting system during the shift. A centile-based EWS system will identify patients with abnormal vital signs regardless of their eventual outcome and might therefore be more likely to generate an alert when presented with patients with redeemable morbidity or avoidable mortality. We are about to start a stepped-wedge clinical trial gradually introducing an electronic version of our EWS system on the trauma wards in a teaching hospital. Copyright © 2011 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Development and Psychometric Evaluation of the Pre-hospital Medical Emergencies Early Warning Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Abbasali; Masoumi, Gholamreza; Jamshidi-Orak, Roohangiz; Seyedin, Hesam

    2017-01-01

    Introduction: The number of requests for emergency medical services (EMSs) has increased during the past decade. However, most of the transports are not essential. Therefore, it seems crucial to develop an instrument to help EMS staff accurately identify patients who need pre-hospital care and transportation. The aim of this study was to develop and evaluate the psychometric properties of the Pre-hospital Medical Emergencies Early Warning Scale (Pre-MEWS). Materials and Methods: This mixed-method study was conducted in two phases. In the first phase, a qualitative content analysis study was conducted to identify the predictors of medical patients' need for pre-hospital EMS and transportation. In the second phase, the face and the content validity as well as the internal consistency of the scale were evaluated. Finally, the items of the scale were scored and scoring system was presented. Results: The final version of the scale contained 22 items and its total score ranged from 0 to 54. Conclusions: Pre-MEWS helps EMS staffs properly understand medical patients' conditions in pre-hospital environments and accurately identify their need for EMS and transportation. PMID:28515604

  17. Predictors of severity and survival in acute pancreatitis: validation of the efficacy of early warning scores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcea, Giuseppe; Gouda, Mohammed; Hebbes, Christopher; Ong, Seok Ling; Neal, Christopher P; Dennison, Ashley R; Berry, David Paul

    2008-10-01

    Early Warning Scores (EWS) is a widely used scoring system monitoring patient progress, which we have previously shown to predict outcome from acute pancreatitis. This study examined EWS from a larger group of patients to confirm if this predictive value held true. The EWS scores were compared with the Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II) scores, modified organ dysfunction scores, Imrie scores, computed tomography grading scores, and Ranson criteria for 181 admissions with acute pancreatitis. The accuracy of EWS in predicting outcome was determined by receiver operator characteristics. A total of 181 patients were identified with acute pancreatitis. On day 1 of admission, APACHE II scores were the most accurate predictor of mortality with an area under curve (AUC) values of 0.876, closely followed by EWS (AUC, 0.827). By day 2 and 3 after admission, the EWS was the most accurate predictor of mortality (AUC, 0.910 and 0.934, respectively). The APACHE II was the second most accurate scoring system at 48 and 72 hours (AUC, 0.892 and 0.911, respectively). The EWSs on days 2 and 3 after admission are sensitive and specific in predicting mortality from acute pancreatitis. It is as accurate as the APACHE II scores and easier to implement in daily practice.

  18. Economics of Early Warning Scores for identifying clinical deterioration-a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murphy, A; Cronin, J; Whelan, R; Drummond, F J; Savage, E; Hegarty, J

    2017-06-03

    In 2013, a National Early Warning System (EWS) was implemented in Ireland. Whilst evidence exists to support the clinical effectiveness of EWS in the acute health care setting, there is a paucity of information on their cost and cost effectiveness. The objective of this systematic literature review was to critically evaluate the economic literature on the use of EWS in adult patients in acute health care settings for the timely detection of physiological deterioration. A systematic literature review was conducted to accumulate the economic evidence on the use of EWS in adult patients in acute health care settings. The search yielded one health technology assessment, two budget impact analyses and two cost descriptions. Three of the studies were Irish, and considered the national EWS system. A Dutch study reported financial consequences of a single parameter EWS, as part of a rapid response system, in a surgical ward. The fifth study examined an advanced triage system in a medical emergency admission unit in Wales. The economic evidence on the use of EWS amongst adult patients in acute health care settings for the timely detection of physiological deterioration is limited. Further research is required to investigate the cost effectiveness of EWS, and the appropriateness of using standard methods to do so. The recent implementation of a national EWS in Ireland offers a unique opportunity to bridge this gap in the literature to examine the costs and cost effectiveness of a nationally implemented EWS system.

  19. Daily surveillance with early warning scores help predicthospital mortality in medical wards.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durusu Tanrıöver, Mine; Halaçlı, Burçin; Sait, Bilgin; Öcal, Serpil; Topeli, Arzu

    2016-12-20

    To analyze the potency of a modified early warning score (EWS) to help predict hospital mortality when used for surveillance in nonacute medical wards. Patients in internal medicine wards were prospectively recruited. First, highest, and last scores; and mean daily score recordings and values were recorded. Nurses calculated scores for each patient upon admission and every 4 h. The last score was the score before death, discharge, or transfer to another ward. The highest scores in total and for each single parameter were used for analysis. Fifty-nine percent of 182 recruited patients had recordings eligible for data analysis. Patients admitted from the emergency room had higher mortality rates than patients admitted from outpatient clinics (15% vs. 1.5%; P = 0.01) as well as patients whose first (40% vs. 4.9%; P = 0.033) and highest scores (18.8% vs. 1.3%; P = 0.003) were equal to or more than 3. The first recorded EWS was not predictive for mortality while the maximum score during the admission period was. This study underlines the fact that each physiological variable of EWS may not have the same weight in determining the outcome.

  20. Monitoring chicken flock behaviour provides early warning of infection by human pathogen Campylobacter.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colles, Frances M; Cain, Russell J; Nickson, Thomas; Smith, Adrian L; Roberts, Stephen J; Maiden, Martin C J; Lunn, Daniel; Dawkins, Marian Stamp

    2016-01-13

    Campylobacter is the commonest bacterial cause of gastrointestinal infection in humans, and chicken meat is the major source of infection throughout the world. Strict and expensive on-farm biosecurity measures have been largely unsuccessful in controlling infection and are hampered by the time needed to analyse faecal samples, with the result that Campylobacter status is often known only after a flock has been processed. Our data demonstrate an alternative approach that monitors the behaviour of live chickens with cameras and analyses the 'optical flow' patterns made by flock movements. Campylobacter-free chicken flocks have higher mean and lower kurtosis of optical flow than those testing positive for Campylobacter by microbiological methods. We show that by monitoring behaviour in this way, flocks likely to become positive can be identified within the first 7-10 days of life, much earlier than conventional on-farm microbiological methods. This early warning has the potential to lead to a more targeted approach to Campylobacter control and also provides new insights into possible sources of infection that could transform the control of this globally important food-borne pathogen. © 2016 The Authors.

  1. ABNORMAL MICROFAUNAL SHELLS AS EARLY WARNING INDICATOR OF ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGES SURROUNDING BERAU DELTA, EAST KALIMANTAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kresna Tri Dewi

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available A total of 25 sediment samples from surrounding Berau Delta, East Kalimantan have been used for microfaunal study. It is found some abnormal shells of ostracoda, foraminifera and other forms with darkish shells (black, dark green and dark brown. These forms were analyzed using SEM-Energy Dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDX or EDS to know their chemical composition. The result shows that these abnormal forms composed of CaO, SiO2, C, FeO, Al2O3, K2O, and small amount of Na2O and Cl. They may derive from different sources: CaO and MgO from neutralized component during the environmental management to handle the Acid Mine Drainage (AMD. The other components may derive from coal ash during combustion process or other activities. From this result, the small amount (less than 5% of abnormal shells may be used as early warning indicator of environmental changes in the study area.

  2. Real-time numerical shake prediction and updating for earthquake early warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Tianyun; Jin, Xing; Wei, Yongxiang; Huang, Yandan

    2017-12-01

    Ground motion prediction is important for earthquake early warning systems, because the region's peak ground motion indicates the potential disaster. In order to predict the peak ground motion quickly and precisely with limited station wave records, we propose a real-time numerical shake prediction and updating method. Our method first predicts the ground motion based on the ground motion prediction equation after P waves detection of several stations, denoted as the initial prediction. In order to correct the prediction error of the initial prediction, an updating scheme based on real-time simulation of wave propagation is designed. Data assimilation technique is incorporated to predict the distribution of seismic wave energy precisely. Radiative transfer theory and Monte Carlo simulation are used for modeling wave propagation in 2-D space, and the peak ground motion is calculated as quickly as possible. Our method has potential to predict shakemap, making the potential disaster be predicted before the real disaster happens. 2008 M S8.0 Wenchuan earthquake is studied as an example to show the validity of the proposed method.

  3. MONITORING AND EARLY-WARNING OF METEOROLOGICAL RISK SITUATIONS IN OLTENIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    BURADA CRISTINA

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Among the natural hazards affecting the human well-being and properties, meterological events are first to come in mind, due to their frequency, (immediate effects and (improving predictability. Assesment of these components are the first step in risk management, when the knowledge on the hazard type and characteristics is essential for defining the vulnerability and exposure and thus for preparing the mitigation plans. The spatial scale of dangerous meteorological situations is, in most cases, the regional one, but sometimes the area of major intensity or even the area of manifestation is small enough (e.g. hail, heavy rain showers to be classifed as ‚local’. Furthermore, other factors like the local geographical features, population density, goods and properties at risk (e.g. cultivated areas, buildings, infrastructure etc come into play in defining the severity of the weather event and/or the needs for interventions aiming to reduce the effects of the weather situation. In this context, the monitoring of potentially dangerous meteorological conditions and the improved forecasting capabilities and accuracy become increasingly important. In this paper, we present a short overview of the severe meteorological events affecting the Oltenia region along with aspects regarding their monitoring, early-warning and socio-economical impact in the area of interest, with a focus on the Dolj county during the 2013-2015 period.

  4. Determination of Megathrust Rupture Processes Using 3D Green Functions for Tsunami Early Warning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baag, S. Y.; Rhie, J.; Yoo, S. H.; Kim, S.

    2014-12-01

    In order to mitigate disasters from devastating tsunamis caused by large earthquakes occurring in subduction zones, it is necessary to have early warning systems utilizing information from fast determination of rupture processes of the megathrust earthquakes. In this study, we develop a new method for fast and accurate estimation of megathrust rupture processes in the subduction zones, applicable right after occurrence of the earthquakes with large magnitudes, using broadband full waveforms of real-time recording from global seismic network. Most of the tsunami-generating large earthquakes occur on the megathrust faults of subduction regions, locations of which are already known. Therefore, using the most recent numerical models describing the geometries of the plate interfaces in the global subduction zones and the locations of broadband seismic stations in global database, it is possible to calculate Green functions in 3D global earth model well before the occurrence of the earthquake. This will enable the fast calculation of slip models promptly after the earthquake using least square inversion. The resulting slip model can be applied to tsunami model, enabling the fast and accurate prediction of tsunami waves. The applicability of this method is tested with major megathrust earthquakes such as 2011 Tohoku-oki and 2010 Chile earthquake.

  5. Science and Systems in Support of Multi-hazard Early Warnings and Decisions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pulwarty, R. S.

    2015-12-01

    The demand for improved climate knowledge and information is well documented. As noted in the IPCC (SREX, AR5), the UNISDR Global Assessment Reports and other assessments, this demand has increased pressure for information to support planning under changing rates and emergence of multiple hazards including climate extremes (drought, heat waves, floods). "Decision support" is now a popular term in the climate applications research community. While existing decision support activities can be identified in many disparate settings (e.g. federal, academic, private), the challenge of changing environments (coupled physical and social) is actually one of crafting implementation strategies for improving decision quality (not just meeting "user needs"). This includes overcoming weaknesses in co-production models, moving beyond DSSs as simply "software", coordinating innovation mapping and diffusion, and providing fora and gaming tools to identify common interests and differences in the way risks are perceived and managed among the affected groups. We outline the development and evolution of multi-hazard early warning systems in the United States and elsewhere, focusing on climate-related hazards. In particular, the presentation will focus on the climate science and information needed for (1) improved monitoring and modeling, (2) generating risk profiles, (3) developing information systems and scenarios for critical thresholds, (4) the net benefits of using new information (5) characterizing and bridging the "last mile" in the context of longer-term risk management.

  6. Rapid Estimation of Macroseismic Intensity for On-site Earthquake Early Warning in Italy from Early Radiated Energ

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emolo, A.; Zollo, A.; Brondi, P.; Picozzi, M.; Mucciarelli, M.

    2015-12-01

    Earthquake Early Warning System (EEWS) are effective tools for the risk mitigation in active seismic regions. Recently, a feasibility study of a nation-wide earthquake early warning systems has been conducted for Italy considering the RAN Network and the EEW software platform PRESTo. This work showed that a reliable estimations in terms of magnitude and epicentral localization would be available within 3-4 seconds after the first P-wave arrival. On the other hand, given the RAN's density, a regional EEWS approach would result in a Blind Zone (BZ) of 25-30 km in average. Such BZ dimension would provide lead-times greater than zero only for events having magnitude larger than 6.5. Considering that in Italy also smaller events are capable of generating great losses both in human and economic terms, as dramatically experienced during the recent 2009 L'Aquila (ML 5.9) and 2012 Emilia (ML 5.9) earthquakes, it has become urgent to develop and test on-site approaches. The present study is focused on the development of a new on-site EEW metodology for the estimation of the macroseismic intensity at a target site or area. In this analysis we have used a few thousands of accelerometric traces recorded by RAN related to the largest earthquakes (ML>4) occurred in Italy in the period 1997-2013. The work is focused on the integral EW parameter Squared Velocity Integral (IV2) and on its capability to predict the peak ground velocity PGV and the Housner Intensity IH, as well as from these latters we parameterized a new relation between IV2 and the Macroseismic Intensity. To assess the performance of the developed on-site EEW relation, we used data of the largest events occurred in Italy in the last 6 years recorded by the Osservatorio Sismico delle Strutture, as well as on the recordings of the moderate earthquake reported by INGV Strong Motion Data. The results shows that the macroseismic intensity values predicted by IV2 and the one estimated by PGV and IH are in good agreement.

  7. AN INTEROPERABLE ARCHITECTURE FOR AIR POLLUTION EARLY WARNING SYSTEM BASED ON SENSOR WEB

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Samadzadegan

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC, which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research

  8. Early Warning Systems: Feasibility and End-Users' Point of View

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, C. S.; Mota de Sá, F.; Lopes, M.; Ferreira, M. A.; Pais, I.

    2015-09-01

    From the user's point of view, Earthquake Early Warning Systems (EEWSs) have a number of applications that need to be viewed in detail for better utilisation of the "lead time" and the usefulness of the associated information . From the seismological point of view, the most important information is of two types: (1) the amount of lead time, the period from the moment the end-user receives the warning until the moment of arrival of larger S waves of significant importance or of exceeding a threshold value of a parameter characteristic of the seismic motion and (2) the reliability of the information transmitted. Missing events and false alarms may be critical or not to the type of "facilities/equipment" we are trying to protect, depending of the consequences. And to be more confident of the predictions, the lead time becomes shorter because the number of stations required increases. To check the level of possible lead time for the Portuguese industrial complex of Sines, we used the available procedures (front and on-site detection for SS and SP wave arrivals) and published the results obtained with the present configuration of the station network and with a hypothetical station configuration. Monte-Carlo simulation was used for the epicentre location within the most critical seismic source zones. The level of reliability and useful lead time ideal for different operators may be quite different, depending on the type of equipment under analysis. Therefore, the optimum balance between reliability and lead time may vary significantly between end-users, and some may even be interested in more than one option. In this article we study the effect of these problems on the industrial infrastructures, a group of installations where EEWSs may have a tremendous impact. Lead times, false and missing events are analysed from the end-users' viewpoint. We applied a simplified and preliminary cost-benefit analysis of using EEWSs at an industrial site and concluded that it is worth

  9. An Interoperable Architecture for Air Pollution Early Warning System Based on Sensor Web

    Science.gov (United States)

    Samadzadegan, F.; Zahmatkesh, H.; Saber, M.; Ghazi khanlou, H. J.

    2013-09-01

    Environmental monitoring systems deal with time-sensitive issues which require quick responses in emergency situations. Handling the sensor observations in near real-time and obtaining valuable information is challenging issues in these systems from a technical and scientific point of view. The ever-increasing population growth in urban areas has caused certain problems in developing countries, which has direct or indirect impact on human life. One of applicable solution for controlling and managing air quality by considering real time and update air quality information gathered by spatially distributed sensors in mega cities, using sensor web technology for developing monitoring and early warning systems. Urban air quality monitoring systems using functionalities of geospatial information system as a platform for analysing, processing, and visualization of data in combination with Sensor Web for supporting decision support systems in disaster management and emergency situations. This system uses Sensor Web Enablement (SWE) framework of the Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC), which offers a standard framework that allows the integration of sensors and sensor data into spatial data infrastructures. SWE framework introduces standards for services to access sensor data and discover events from sensor data streams as well as definition set of standards for the description of sensors and the encoding of measurements. The presented system provides capabilities to collect, transfer, share, process air quality sensor data and disseminate air quality status in real-time. It is possible to overcome interoperability challenges by using standard framework. In a routine scenario, air quality data measured by in-situ sensors are communicated to central station where data is analysed and processed. The extracted air quality status is processed for discovering emergency situations, and if necessary air quality reports are sent to the authorities. This research proposed an

  10. Retrospect on the tsunami simulation efforts for the German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rakowsky, Natalja; Androsov, Alexey; Harig, Sven; Immerz, Antonia; Behrens, Jörn; Danilov, Sergey; Hiller, Wolfgang; Schröter, Jens

    2014-05-01

    Starting in 2005, the GITEWS project (German-Indonesian Tsunami Early Warning System) established from scratch a fully operational tsunami warning system at BMKG in Jakarta. GITEWS was succeeded in 2011 by the smaller project PROTECTS for training the Indonesian staff and consolidating the technical system. With the official end in March 2014, it is time to draw a balance and evaluate the approach. This presentation focuses on the contribution of the tsunami modelling group at the Alfred Wegener Institute. We will give a short overview on the developments of the numerical tsunami simulation model TsunAWI, of the scenario database built with TsunAWI, and of the simulation module SIM that interfaces the database to the decision support system. Some distinctive experiences will be highlighted. Topics include the modeling part as well as the matching process after the database is already set up. On the modeling side, unstructured mesh generation with focus on local bathymetric features and inclusion of precise coastline position as well as numerical parametrization and post processing are covered. The matching of pre calculated scenarios with incoming data in case of a tsunamigenic earthquake is performed in the simulation system SIM, which processes the data of multiple sensors and employs various metrics to limit the choice of possible scenarios from the database. One challenge was that the development of the matching algorithm had to start without having access to real sensor data except seismic information on epicenter and magnitude. Therefore, the algorithm is designed with robustness in mind. Still, the conservative approach allows to narrow down the scenario selection even with limited sensor information. Given more experience in the typical behaviour of sensor data in real events, the algorithm parameters can easily be calibrated towards a more restrictive scenario selection. Another challenge was to ensure the quality control of the data products derived from

  11. Design and internal validation of an obstetric early warning score: secondary analysis of the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre Case Mix Programme database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carle, C; Alexander, P; Columb, M; Johal, J

    2013-04-01

    We designed and internally validated an aggregate weighted early warning scoring system specific to the obstetric population that has the potential for use in the ward environment. Direct obstetric admissions from the Intensive Care National Audit and Research Centre's Case Mix Programme Database were randomly allocated to model development (n = 2240) or validation (n = 2200) sets. Physiological variables collected during the first 24 h of critical care admission were analysed. Logistic regression analysis for mortality in the model development set was initially used to create a statistically based early warning score. The statistical score was then modified to create a clinically acceptable early warning score. Important features of this clinical obstetric early warning score are that the variables are weighted according to their statistical importance, a surrogate for the FI O2 /Pa O2 relationship is included, conscious level is assessed using a simplified alert/not alert variable, and the score, trigger thresholds and response are consistent with the new non-obstetric National Early Warning Score system. The statistical and clinical early warning scores were internally validated using the validation set. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.995 (95% CI 0.992-0.998) for the statistical score and 0.957 (95% CI 0.923-0.991) for the clinical score. Pre-existing empirically designed early warning scores were also validated in the same way for comparison. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve was 0.955 (95% CI 0.922-0.988) for Swanton et al.'s Modified Early Obstetric Warning System, 0.937 (95% CI 0.884-0.991) for the obstetric early warning score suggested in the 2003-2005 Report on Confidential Enquiries into Maternal Deaths in the UK, and 0.973 (95% CI 0.957-0.989) for the non-obstetric National Early Warning Score. This highlights that the new clinical obstetric early warning score has an excellent ability to

  12. Convective Scale Ensemble Prediction System in KMA for Early Warning of High Impact Weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.

    2016-12-01

    Economic and societal damages due to severe weather events have been increasing in association with the concentration of human and economic resources such as in metropolitan areas. Severe weather events are often associated with rapidly developing convective scale systems, which are strongly influenced by topography, land use, and urbanization, etc. In the forecast those kinds of severe weather events, the high resolution numerical model is crucial to predict these convective scale severe weather events. However, the NWP models have an inherent limitation in the predictability of atmospheric phenomena, especially in predicting the severe weather. It is partly due to the poor resolution and model physics and partly due to the uncertainty of meteorological events. Nowadays most operational centers are being asked to develop more effective early detection systems that can be used to reduce the risk associated with severe weather events. Furthermore, forecasters need to assess and quantify the risk of occurrence of rare but destructive events. Thus, a policy in KMA to provide the probabilistic information of the severe events in limited area using ensemble method was adapted to meets these needs of the effective early warning systems. Ensemble forecasting using finite members is one of the feasible methods to quantify possibilities of extreme severe weather events. The ensemble forecasting has proved to be a successful way of dealing with that kind of inherent uncertainty of weather and climate forecasts. In this study, the limited area ensemble prediction system (LENS) using the Unified Model (UM) in KMA was developed and evaluated for the warm season of 2015. The model domain covers the limited area over the Korean Peninsula. The high resolution(3-km) limited area ensemble prediction system showed beneficial probabilistic forecast skill in predicting the heavy precipitation events. The sensitive experiment to evaluate the impact of uncertainty in model physics on the

  13. Combining Real-Time Seismic and GPS Data for Earthquake Early Warning (Invited)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boese, M.; Heaton, T. H.; Hudnut, K. W.

    2013-12-01

    Scientists at Caltech, UC Berkeley, the Univ. of SoCal, the Univ. of Washington, the US Geological Survey, and ETH Zurich have developed an earthquake early warning (EEW) demonstration system for California and the Pacific Northwest. To quickly determine the earthquake magnitude and location, 'ShakeAlert' currently processes and interprets real-time data-streams from ~400 seismic broadband and strong-motion stations within the California Integrated Seismic Network (CISN). Based on these parameters, the 'UserDisplay' software predicts and displays the arrival and intensity of shaking at a given user site. Real-time ShakeAlert feeds are currently shared with around 160 individuals, companies, and emergency response organizations to educate potential users about EEW and to identify needs and applications of EEW in a future operational warning system. Recently, scientists at the contributing institutions have started to develop algorithms for ShakeAlert that make use of high-rate real-time GPS data to improve the magnitude estimates for large earthquakes (M>6.5) and to determine slip distributions. Knowing the fault slip in (near) real-time is crucial for users relying on or operating distributed systems, such as for power, water or transportation, especially if these networks run close to or across large faults. As shown in an earlier study, slip information is also useful to predict (in a probabilistic sense) how far a fault rupture will propagate, thus enabling more robust probabilistic ground-motion predictions at distant locations. Finally, fault slip information is needed for tsunami warning, such as in the Cascadia subduction-zone. To handle extended fault-ruptures of large earthquakes in real-time, Caltech and USGS Pasadena are currently developing and testing a two-step procedure that combines seismic and geodetic data; in the first step, high-frequency strong-motion amplitudes are used to rapidly classify near-and far-source stations. Then, the location and

  14. An international intercomparison of national network systems used to provide early warning of a nuclear accident having transboundary implications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thompson, I.M.G.; Andersen, C.E.; Bøtter-Jensen, L.

    2000-01-01

    Since the Chernobyl accident many countries now operate large national networks of radiation detectors that continuously monitor radiation levels in order to give early warning of nuclear accidents having transboundary implications. The networks are used to provide data to assist in determining...... of these detectors are used. During an accident the data produced by such systems will be exchanged between countries within the European Communities, (EC) and as required by the IAEA's Early Warning Convention between the rest of the world and Europe. It is therefore important to ensure that such data should...... be harmonised so that it can be accurately interpreted by other countries and by international organisations. To assist with such harmonisation an intercomparison was held during May/June 1999 at the Riso Natural Environmental Radiation Measurement Station in Denmark and at the PTB underground laboratory...

  15. Virtual Quake and Tsunami Squares: Scenario Earthquake and Tsunami Simulations for a Pacific Rim GNSS Tsunami Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, K.; Yoder, M. R.; Sachs, M. K.; Heien, E. M.; Donnellan, A.; Rundle, J. B.; Turcotte, D. L.

    2015-12-01

    Plans for the first operational prototype for a Pacific Rim Tsunami Early Warning (TEW) system utilizing real-time data from the Global Navigational Satellite System (GNSS) are now gaining momentum. The proposed Pacific Rim TEW prototype may resemble the Japanese Meteorological Society's early warning algorithms and use earthquake parameters rapidly determined from GPS data to select the most similar earthquake and tsunami scenario from a database of precomputed scenarios to guide alerts and disaster response. To facilitate the development of this Pacific Rim TEW system, we have integrated tsunami modeling capabilities into the earthquake simulator Virtual Quake (formerly Virtual California). We will present the first results from coupling the earthquake simulator output (seafloor displacements) with the tsunami modeling method called Tsunami Squares. Combining Virtual Quake and Tsunami Squares provides a highly scalable and flexible platform for producing catalogs of tsunami scenarios for a wide range of simulated subduction zone earthquakes.

  16. Into the night: factors affecting response to abnormal Early Warning Scores out-of-hours and implications for service improvement.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yiu, C J; Khan, S U; Subbe, C P; Tofeec, K; Madge, R A

    2014-01-01

    Early Warning Scores alert staff to preventable deterioration. Raised scores should lead to escalation of care. To establish response of staff to patients scoring National Early Warning Score (NEWS) of six or above and to identify patient and environmental factors affecting escalation by nursing staff. Service evaluation with prospective review of patient records of 118 beds on four medical wards during 20 night-shifts. During 2360 observed bed days 109 patients triggered NEWS>=6 at least once during the observation period. Nursing staff escalated only 18 (17%) of these patients; nearly all of them had predefined chronic health conditions, the majority fulfilled criteria for frailty. Despite their higher 30-day mortality patients with COPD had lower escalation rates. Additionally wards that had more patients with a NEWS>=6 had lower escalation rates. Alarm fatigue and clinical judgement of staff might result in deviation from escalation protocols.

  17. The Role of Bank and Corporate Balance Sheets on Early Warning Systems of Currency Crises—An Empirical Study

    OpenAIRE

    Mulder, Christian; Perrelli, Roberto; Duarte Rocha, Manuel

    2016-01-01

    This study analyzes the role of bank and corporate balance sheets on early warning systems (EWS) of currency crises. Using firm-level data on debt structure, leverage, liquidity, and profitability, this study presents estimations of EWS for a panel of emerging markets. Using calibration experiments, we assess the performance of alternative EWS specifications in a comprehensive range of crisis-probability cut-offs‏. These models supplement EWS based on traditional macroeconomic indicators, imp...

  18. Regime switching as an alternative early warning system of currency crises - an application to South-East Asia

    OpenAIRE

    Arias, Guillaume; Erlandsson, Ulf

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we develop an early warning system of currency crises based on the Markov switching methodology. Constructed data on speculative pressure from six Asian countries indicate that currency crises are mainly captured through volatility effects. Based on an extensive survey, we test potential determinants of exiting the tranquil state and find a number of variables with significant medians across the panel. Using these candidates, we obtain final specifications using a recently propo...

  19. How to evaluate an Early Warning System? Towards a United Statistical Framework for Assessing Financial Crises Forecasting Methods

    OpenAIRE

    Candelon, B.; Dumitrescu, E-I.; Hurlin, C.

    2010-01-01

    This paper proposes a new statistical framework originating from the traditional credit-scoring literature, to evaluate currency crises Early Warning Systems (EWS). Based on an assessment of the predictive power of panel logit and Markov frameworks, the panel logit model is outperforming the Markov switching specitcations. Furthermore, the introduction of forward-looking variables clearly improves the forecasting properties of the EWS. This improvement confirms the adequacy of the second gene...

  20. Strengthening Carrying Capacity of a Water Supply System under Climate Change with the Drought Early Warning System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Syujie; Liu, Tzuming; Li, Minghsu; Tung, Chingpin

    2016-04-01

    The carrying capacity of a water supply system is the maximal probable water supply amount under an acceptable risk which is related to the systematic combination of hydrology conditions, climatic conditions, and water infrastructures, for instance, reservoirs, weirs, and water treatment plants. Due to long-term imbalance of water supply and demand during the drought seasons, the carrying capacity of a water supply system may be affected gradually with more extreme climate events resulting from the climate change. To evaluate the carrying capacity of the water supply system under climate change, three major steps to build adaptation capacity under climate change are adopted, including problem identification and goal setting, current risk assessment, and future risk assessment. The carrying capacities for current climate condition and future climate condition were estimated respectively. The early warning system was taken as the effective measure to strengthen the carrying capacity for the uncertain changing climate. The water supply system of Chuoshui River basin in Taiwan is used as the case study. The system dynamics modeling software, Vensim, was used to build the water resources allocation model for Chuoshui River basin. To apply the seasonal climate forecasts released from Taiwan Central Weather Bureau (CWB) on modeling, a weather generator is adopted to generate daily weather data for the input of the hydrological component of GWLF model, to project inflows with the lead time of three months. Consequently, the water shortages with and without a drought early warning system were estimated to evaluate the effectiveness of a drought early warning system under climate change. Keywords: Climate change, Carrying capacity, Risk Assessment, Seasonal Climate Forecasts, Drought Early Warning System

  1. Implementation of a landslide early warning system based on near-real-time monitoring, multisensor mapping and geophysical measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teza, Giordano; Galgaro, Antonio; Francese, Roberto; Ninfo, Andrea; Mariani, Rocco

    2017-04-01

    An early warning system has been implemented to monitor the Perarolo di Cadore landslide (North-Eastern Italian Alps), which is a slump whose induced risk is fairly high because a slope collapse could form a temporary dam on the underlying torrent and, therefore, could directly threaten the close village. A robotic total station (RTS) measures, with 6h returning time, the positions of 23 retro-reflectors placed on the landslide upper and middle sectors. The landslide's kinematical behavior derived from these near-real-time (NRT) surface displacements is interpreted on the basis of available geomorphological and geological information, geometrical data provided by some laser scanning and photogrammetric surveys, and a landslide model obtained by means of 3D Electrical Resistivity Tomography (3D ERT) measurements. In this way, an analysis of the time series provided by RTS and a pluviometer, which cover several years, allows the definition of some pre-alert and alert kinematical and rainfall thresholds. These thresholds, as well as the corresponding operational recommendations, are currently used for early warning purposes by Authorities involved in risk management for the Perarolo landslide. It should be noted the fact that, as new RTS and pluviometric data are available, the thresholds can be updated and, therefore, a fine tuning of the early warning system can be carried out in order to improve its performance. Although the proposed approach has been implemented in a particular case, it can be used to develop an early warning system based on NRT data in each site where a landslide threatens infrastructures and/or villages that cannot be relocated.

  2. Less is more: the design of early-warning scoring systems affects the speed and accuracy of scoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christofidis, Melany J; Hill, Andrew; Horswill, Mark S; Watson, Marcus O

    2015-07-01

    To evaluate the effect of early-warning scoring system design on the speed and accuracy of scoring. Despite the widespread implementation of early-warning scoring systems in hospitals, the speed and accuracy with which chart-users determine patients' early-warning scores has received minimal research attention. Within-subjects, with scoring-system design as the independent variable. Forty-seven novice chart-users were presented with realistic vital sign observations recorded on charts with three different scoring-system designs. The rows for recording individual vital sign scores were either: (1) grouped together beneath all of the vital sign rows; (2) separated, with each row presented immediately below the corresponding vital sign row; or (3) excluded altogether. Participants' response times and error rates for determining the overall scores were measured for 54 time-points per design. Data were collected in December 2012-January 2013. Contrary to predictions, participants responded fastest and made the fewest errors when using the chart design without individual vital sign scoring-rows. For the other two designs, participants were faster when the rows for scoring individual vital signs were separated (vs. grouped), but accuracy did not differ. For both of these designs, significantly more time-points were affected by scoring errors compared with adding errors. Finally, data for patients with more serious derangements yielded greater response times and error rates on all three charts. Early-warning scoring systems may be more effective without individual vital sign scoring-rows. Even when charts are designed by multi-disciplinary teams of human factors specialists and clinicians, empirical evaluations are essential. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  3. The Virtual Seismologist in SeisComP3: A New Implementation Strategy for Earthquake Early Warning Algorithms

    OpenAIRE

    Behr, Yannik; Clinton, John F.; Cauzzi, Carlo; Hauksson, Egill; Jónsdóttir, Kristín; Marius, Craiu G.; Pinar, Ali; Salichon, Jerome; Sokos, Efthimios

    2016-01-01

    The feasibility of earthquake early warning (EEW) is now widely recognized. However, EEW systems that are in operation or under evaluation worldwide have significant variations and are usually operated independently of routine earthquake monitoring. We introduce a software that allows testing and evaluation of a well‐known EEW algorithm directly within a widely used earthquake monitoring software platform. In the long term, we envision this approach can lead to (1) an easier transition from p...

  4. Exploring early warning signs of failure in offshore-outsourced software development projects at the team level

    OpenAIRE

    Philip, Tom; Wende, Erik; Schwabe, Gerhard

    2013-01-01

    Organizations face many challenges in executing offshore-outsourced software development (OOSD) projects involving several countries. In such contexts, complex software development efforts are exposed to a greater number of risks, which make OOSD projects prone to failures. We analyzed 19 cases of OOSD project failures to explore the concept of early warning signs (EWS) in OOSD projects at the team level. Using the grounded theory methodology, we studied the EWSs specific to OOSD project fail...

  5. Evaluation on the Implementation of Early Warning System for Debris Flow in Merapi Area (Case Study at Boyong River

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ali Cahyadi Achmad

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available One of disasters caused by volcanic activity of Mount Merapi is secondary disaster. The disaster usually occurs after eruption and this volcanic activity produces volcanic and pyroclastic material deposit around the top of the mountain as a result of previous eruption. This material might collapse downward in the form of debris flow as it is affected by natural event such as high intensity rainfall. Therefore, a research is needed to analyze whether existing forecasting and early warning system are capable to provide information for the people living in hazardous area before the debris flood occur. This research was carried out using field survey, observation and interview method. Data analysis used qualitative descriptive method by making description of actual condition of the researched location general condition and qualitative analysis of telemetry system installed on Mount Merapi. The qualitative analysis of telemetry system covers network, hardware, software, power supply, security system, operation and maintenance, also human resources. Research analysis used primary and secondary data. Research results revealed that mean rainfall intensity above of 60 mm/hour might trigger debris flood. Early warning should be given at the rainfall intensity level of 50-55 mm/hour, and debris flood time travel from the upstream to the observed location in Pulowatu Village is 45 minute. Based on the analysis of the present forecasting and early warning system, it is known that some of the equipment is not well functioned, so that debris flow cannot be predicted and detected. This is caused by the lack of human resource quality of the officers in operating and maintaining the equipment. Concerning that matter, it is necessary to conduct some improvement to achieve better forecasting and early warning system in order to give information regarding occurrence of debris flow.

  6. Automated DNA sequence-based early warning system for the detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus outbreaks.

    OpenAIRE

    Alexander Mellmann; Alexander W Friedrich; Nicole Rosenkötter; Jörg Rothgänger; Helge Karch; Ralf Reintjes; Dag Harmsen

    2006-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The detection of methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA) usually requires the implementation of often rigorous infection-control measures. Prompt identification of an MRSA epidemic is crucial for the control of an outbreak. In this study we evaluated various early warning algorithms for the detection of an MRSA cluster. METHODS AND FINDINGS: Between 1998 and 2003, 557 non-replicate MRSA strains were collected from staff and patients admitted to a German tertiary-care un...

  7. Early Childhood Education for Sustainability: The OMEP World Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engdahl, Ingrid

    2015-01-01

    At the closure of the UNESCO decade on Education for Sustainable Development (2005-2014), this article reports on large research projects on sustainability conducted within the World Organisation for Early Childhood Education (OMEP) through 2009-2014. The overall aim of the projects within OMEP was to enhance awareness of Education for Sustainable…