WorldWideScience

Sample records for survive significant storms

  1. Lower survival probabilities for adult Florida manatees in years with intense coastal storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langtimm, C.A.; Beck, C.A.

    2003-01-01

    The endangered Florida manatee (Trichechus manatus latirostris) inhabits the subtropical waters of the southeastern United States, where hurricanes are a regular occurrence. Using mark-resighting statistical models, we analyzed 19 years of photo-identification data and detected significant annual variation in adult survival for a subpopulation in northwest Florida where human impact is low. That variation coincided with years when intense hurricanes (Category 3 or greater on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Scale) and a major winter storm occurred in the northern Gulf of Mexico. Mean survival probability during years with no or low intensity storms was 0.972 (approximate 95% confidence interval = 0.961-0.980) but dropped to 0.936 (0.864-0.971) in 1985 with Hurricanes Elena, Kate, and Juan; to 0.909 (0.837-0.951) in 1993 with the March "Storm of the Century"; and to 0.817 (0.735-0.878) in 1995 with Hurricanes Opal, Erin, and Allison. These drops in survival probability were not catastrophic in magnitude and were detected because of the use of state-of-the-art statistical techniques and the quality of the data. Because individuals of this small population range extensively along the north Gulf coast of Florida, it was possible to resolve storm effects on a regional scale rather than the site-specific local scale common to studies of more sedentary species. This is the first empirical evidence in support of storm effects on manatee survival and suggests a cause-effect relationship. The decreases in survival could be due to direct mortality, indirect mortality, and/or emigration from the region as a consequence of storms. Future impacts to the population by a single catastrophic hurricane, or series of smaller hurricanes, could increase the probability of extinction. With the advent in 1995 of a new 25- to 50-yr cycle of greater hurricane activity, and longer term change possible with global climate change, it becomes all the more important to reduce mortality and injury

  2. Critical storm thresholds for the generation of significant dune erosion at Dziwnow Spit, Poland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furmańczyk, K. K.; Dudzińska-Nowak, J.; Furmańczyk, K. A.; Paplińska-Swerpel, B.; Brzezowska, N.

    2012-03-01

    Storm influence on the southern Baltic coast was examined for a 14-km long section of the Polish coast along the Dziwnow Spit based on 30 years of post-storm dune erosion observations. In this study, we assumed that a significant storm causes noticeable sand dune erosion. Significant changes of the coast after each major storm were analysed based on reports from 1978 to 2008 provided by the Maritime Office, Szczecin. Thirty-two storms that caused dune losses were chosen for analysis. Correlation and hierarchical cluster analysis allowed us to distinguish three groups of storms that caused varying amounts of dune erosion: G1 (small), G2 (medium), and G3 (large). Sea level is the main parameter that influences the amount of dune erosion caused by storms on the southern Baltic coast. Factors such as maximum significant wave height, mean wave direction, storm energy and duration can also, but less significantly, influence dune erosion. The study area was divided into two sections: Dziwnow, where there are many protection measures in place, and Miedzywodzie, which has no protection measures in place. In both areas, we observed differences in the impact of sea level and significant wave height and storm groupings. Approximate minimum sea level and significant wave height thresholds were defined for particular storm groups.

  3. Predicting the impact from significant storm events on a hazardous waste site

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Singh, U.P. [CH2M Hill, Oakland, CA (United States); Dixon, N.P. [CH2M Hill, Redding, CA (United States); Mitchell, J.S. [CH2M Hill, Helena, MT (United States)

    1994-12-31

    The Stringfellow Hazardous Waste Site is a former Class 1 industrial waste disposal facility located near the community of Glen Avon in southern California. In response to community concerns regarding flooding and possible exposure to contaminants via the surface water pathway, a study was performed to evaluate the potential effect significant/episodic storm events may have on the site and its engineered structures as they exist during present day conditions. Specific storm events such as significant recorded historic storms as well as synthetic design storms were considered and the impact on the onsite area and surface channels in Pyrite Canyon downstream of the site was evaluated. Conclusions were reached, and recommendations were made to minimize the potential flood impacts and exposure to contaminants via the surface water pathway in the areas downstream of the site.

  4. Possibility Of Generating Significant Storm Surge On The Western Seaboard Of Metro Manila, Philippines

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suarez, J. K. B.; Santiago, J. T.; Tablazon, J. P.; Dasallas, L. L.; Goting, P. G.; Lagmay, A. M. A.

    2016-12-01

    The Philippines, located in the Northwestern Pacific Typhoon gateway to Asia, is considered one of the most susceptible to tropical cyclone related hazards. One of the most disastrous effects of tropical cyclones is storm surge. With Metro Manila being a coastal area and the most populous region in the country, with approximately 12.8 million people residing in it, it is of great interest to determine the possibility of generating significant level of storm surge in the country's capital. The necessity to determine the storm surge susceptibility was brought upon by the effect of Typhoon Haiyan on eastern Visayas in 2013, where more than 6,000 people died and resulted to about 2.86 billion dollars' worth of damages. To achieve the objectives, the actual tracks and wind speed of historical typhoon (JMA data since 1951) was mapped for the Philippines. The simulated wind speed map shows that the maximum winds are mostly experienced on the eastern side of the country; with a considerable decrease in wind intensity as the typhoon reaches the western seaboard due to land surface. The Haiyan-strength wind speed is then applied to the actual historical typhoon tracks to determine the hypothetical values of wind speed as a typhoon with Haiyan intensity reached Metro Manila. Results show that, if a typhoon with a Haiyan-like intensity is to traverse tracks like those of Rita 1978, Collen 1992, Sybil 1995, Bebinca 2000 and Xangsane 2000, there is a huge possibility of generating storm surge height of 3.9 to 5.6 m in the western seaboard of Metro Manila, even after considering the diminishing effect of surface friction.

  5. Significant prolongation of segmental pancreatic allograft survival in two species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Du Toit, D.F.; Heydenrych, J.J.

    1988-06-01

    A study was conducted to assess the suppression of segmental pancreatic allograft rejection by cyclosporine (CSA) alone in baboons and dogs, and subtotal marrow irradiation (TL1) alone and TL 1 in combination with CSA in baboons. Total pancreatectomy in the dog and primate provided a reliable diabetic model, induced an absolute deficiency of insulin and was uniformly lethal if not treated. Continuous administration of CSA in baboons resulted in modest allograft survival. As in baboons, dogs receiving CSA 25 mg/kg/d rendered moderate graft prolongation but a dose of 40 mg/kg/d resulted in significant graft survival (greater than 100 days) in 5 of 8 allograft recipients. Irradiation alone resulted in minimal baboon pancreatic allograft survival of 20 baboons receiving TL1 1,000 rad and CSA, 3 had graft survival greater than of 100 days. Of 15 baboons receiving TL1 800 rad and CSA, 6 had graft survival of greater than 100 days. In conclusion, CSA administration in dogs and TL1 in combination with CSA in baboons resulted in highly significant segmental pancreatic allograft survival.

  6. Metastatic breast cancer - age has a significant effect on survival

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    1991-03-02

    Mar 2, 1991 ... months for patients aged 55 - 64 years (P= 0,08; Cox model). The median survival improves again to 24,6 months ... in the very old (aged 75 - 84 years) (P = 0,52; Cox model). The more favourable prognosis in the elderly ... po Box 667, Pretoria, 0001 RSA. Accepted 18 Ocr 1990. tic breast cancer seen in ...

  7. Metastatic breast cancer - age has a significant effect on survival ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The data on 217 elderly (aged ≥ 65 years) and 209 middleaged postmenopausal patients with metastatic breast cancer treated in the Department of Medical Oncology, University of Pretoria, from 1976 to 1985 were analysed to determine the effect of age on survival. When considered as a group, the elderly have a more ...

  8. Character, distribution, and ecological significance of storm wave-induced scour in Rhode Island Sound, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    McMullen, Katherine Y.; Poppe, Lawrence J.; Parker, Castle E.

    2015-01-01

    Multibeam bathymetry, collected during NOAA hydrographic surveys in 2008 and 2009, is coupled with USGS data from sampling and photographic stations to map the seabed morphology and composition of Rhode Island Sound along the US Atlantic coast, and to provide information on sediment transport and benthic habitats. Patchworks of scour depressions cover large areas on seaward-facing slopes and bathymetric highs in the sound. These depressions average 0.5-0.8 m deep and occur in water depths reaching as much as 42 m. They have relatively steep well-defined sides and coarser-grained floors, and vary strongly in shape, size, and configuration. Some individual scour depressions have apparently expanded to combine with adjacent depressions, forming larger eroded areas that commonly contain outliers of the original seafloor sediments. Where cobbles and scattered boulders are present on the depression floors, the muddy Holocene sands have been completely removed and the winnowed relict Pleistocene deposits exposed. Low tidal-current velocities and the lack of obstacle marks suggest that bidirectional tidal currents alone are not capable of forming these features. These depressions are formed and maintained under high-energy shelf conditions owing to repetitive cyclic loading imposed by high-amplitude, long-period, storm-driven waves that reduce the effective shear strength of the sediment, cause resuspension, and expose the suspended sediments to erosion by wind-driven and tidal currents. Because epifauna dominate on gravel floors of the depressions and infauna are prevalent in the finer-grained Holocene deposits, it is concluded that the resultant close juxtaposition of silty sand-, sand-, and gravel-dependent communities promotes regional faunal complexity. These findings expand on earlier interpretations, documenting how storm wave-induced scour produces sorted bedforms that control much of the benthic geologic and biologic diversity in Rhode Island Sound.

  9. Double blockade of CD14 and complement C5 abolishes the cytokine storm and improves morbidity and survival in polymicrobial sepsis in mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huber-Lang, Markus; Barratt-Due, Andreas; Pischke, Søren E; Sandanger, Øystein; Nilsson, Per H; Nunn, Miles A; Denk, Stephanie; Gaus, Wilhelm; Espevik, Terje; Mollnes, Tom E

    2014-06-01

    Sepsis and septic shock, caused by an excessive systemic host-inflammatory response, are associated with high morbidity and mortality. The complement system and TLRs provide important pattern recognition receptors initiating the cytokine storm by extensive cross-talk. We hypothesized that double blockade of complement C5 and the TLR coreceptor CD14 could improve survival of experimental polymicrobial sepsis. Mice undergoing cecal ligation and puncture (CLP)-induced sepsis were treated with neutralizing anti-CD14 Ab biG 53, complement C5 inhibitor coversin (Ornithodoros moubata C inhibitor), or a combination thereof. The inflammatory study (24-h observation) revealed statistically significant increases in 22 of 24 measured plasma biomarkers in the untreated CLP group, comprising 14 pro- and anti-inflammatory cytokines and 8 chemokines, growth factors, and granulocyte activation markers. Single CD14 or C5 blockade significantly inhibited 20 and 19 of the 22 biomarkers, respectively. Combined CD14 and C5 inhibition significantly reduced all 22 biomarkers (mean reduction 85%; range 54-95%) compared with the untreated CLP group. Double blockade was more potent than single treatment and was required to significantly inhibit IL-6 and CXCL1. Combined inhibition significantly reduced morbidity (motility and eyelid movement) and mortality measured over 10 d. In the positive control CLP group, median survival was 36 h (range 24-48 h). Combined treatment increased median survival to 96 h (range 24-240 h) (p = 0.001), whereas survival in the single-treatment groups was not significantly increased (median and range for anti-CD14 and anti-C5 treatment were 36 h [24-48 h] and 48 h [24-96 h]). Combined with standard intervention therapy, specific blockade of CD14 and C5 might represent a promising new therapeutic strategy for treatment of polymicrobial sepsis. Copyright © 2014 by The American Association of Immunologists, Inc.

  10. Weathering the storm: how lodgepole pine trees survive mountain pine beetle outbreaks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erbilgin, Nadir; Cale, Jonathan A; Hussain, Altaf; Ishangulyyeva, Guncha; Klutsch, Jennifer G; Najar, Ahmed; Zhao, Shiyang

    2017-06-01

    Recent mountain pine beetle outbreaks in western North America killed millions of lodgepole pine trees, leaving few survivors. However, the mechanism underlying the ability of trees to survive bark beetle outbreaks is unknown, but likely involve phytochemicals such as monoterpenes and fatty acids that can drive beetle aggregation and colonization on their hosts. Thus, we conducted a field survey of beetle-resistant lodgepole pine (Pinus contorta) trees to retrospectively deduce whether these phytochemicals underlie their survival by comparing their chemistry to that of non-attacked trees in the same stands. We also compared beetle attack characteristics between resistant and beetle-killed trees. Beetle-killed trees had more beetle attacks and longer ovipositional galleries than resistant trees, which also lacked the larval establishment found in beetle-killed trees. Resistant trees contained high amounts of toxic and attraction-inhibitive compounds and low amounts of pheromone-precursor and synergist compounds. During beetle host aggregation and colonization, these compounds likely served three critical roles in tree survival. First, low amounts of pheromone-precursor (α-pinene) and synergist (mycrene, terpinolene) compounds reduced or prevented beetles from attracting conspecifics to residual trees. Second, high amounts of 4-allyanisole further inhibited beetle attraction to its pheromone. Finally, high amounts of toxic limonene, 3-carene, 4-allyanisole, α-linolenic acid, and linoleic acid inhibited beetle gallery establishment and oviposition. We conclude that the variation of chemotypic expression of local plant populations can have profound ecological consequences including survival during insect outbreaks.

  11. To the 100th Anniversary of Storming of the Erzerum: the Offensive Operationand Its Significance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vladimir B. Karataev

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The article is considered the Erzurum offensive and its significance for Russian society due to the 100th anniversary.There were used the published materials – the collections of documents, scientific research, as well as private sources: memoirs and diaries. The methodological basis of the study were the principles of objectivity and historicism, suggesting an unbiased approach to the analysis of the studied problems, a critical attitude to the sources, making judgments under result of the analysis of set of facts and the screening phenomena in the development and the context of the historical situation. The authors conclude that the Erzurum offensive was the result of the efficient conduct tactical and strategic planning of the Russian command. Despite the considerable force of the enemy and his strong defensive positions, the operation has been a success with relatively small losses of the Russian army. The victory inspired not only the army, but also the Russian rear, which had a positive impact on the mood in society.

  12. Thyroid storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thyrotoxic storm; Hyperthyroid storm; Accelerated hyperthyroidism; Thyroid crisis; Thyrotoxicosis - thyroid storm ... Thyroid storm occurs due to a major stress such as trauma, heart attack , or infection. In rare ...

  13. Always follow your nose: the functional significance of social chemosignals in human reproduction and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lübke, Katrin T; Pause, Bettina M

    2015-02-01

    This article is part of a Special Issue "Chemosignals and Reproduction" Across phyla, chemosensory communication is crucial for mediating a variety of social behaviors, which form the basis for ontogenetic and phylogenetic survival. In the present paper, evidence on chemosensory communication in humans, with special reference to reproduction and survival, will be presented. First, the impact of chemosignals on human reproduction will be reviewed. Work will be presented, showing how chemosensory signals are involved in mate choice and partnership formation by communicating attractiveness and facilitating a partner selection, which is of evolutionary advantage, and furthermore providing information about the level of sexual hormones. In addition to direct effects on phylogenetic survival, chemosignals indirectly aid reproductive success by fostering harm protection. Results will be presented, showing that chemosensory communication aids the emotional bond between mother and child, which in turn motivates parental caretaking and protection, leading to infant survival. Moreover, the likelihood of group survival can be increased through the use of stress-related chemosignals. Stress-related chemosignals induce a stress-related physiology in the perceiver, thereby priming a fight-flight-response, which is necessary for an optimum adaption to environmental harm. Finally, effects of sexual orientation on chemosensory communication will be discussed in terms of their putative role in stabilizing social groups, which might indirectly provide harm protection and foster survival. An integrative model of the presented data will be introduced. In conclusion, an outlook, focusing on the involvement of chemosensory communication in human social behavior and illustrating a novel approach to the significance of chemosensory signals in human survival, will be given. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Significance of platelet and AFP levels and liver function parameters for HCC size and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Brian I; Guerra, Vito; Giannini, Edoardo G; Farinati, Fabio; Ciccarese, Francesca; Rapaccini, Gian Ludovico; Di Marco, Maria; Benvegnù, Luisa; Zoli, Marco; Borzio, Franco; Caturelli, Eugenio; Chiaramonte, Maria; Trevisani, Franco

    2014-09-30

    Hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) is a heterogeneous disease with both tumor and liver factors being involved. To investigate HCC clinical phenotypes and factors related to HCC size. Prospectively-collected HCC patients' data from a large Italian database were arranged according to the maximum tumor diameter (MTD) and divided into tumor size terciles, which were then compared in terms of several common clinical parameters and patients' survival. An higer MTD tercile was significantly associated with increased blood alpha-fetoprotein (AFP), gamma-glutamyl transpeptidase (GGTP), and platelet levels. Patients with higher platelet levels had larger tumors and higher GGTP levels, with lower bilirubin levels. However, patients with the highest AFP levels had larger tumors and higher bilirubin levels, reflecting an aggressive biology. AFP correlation analysis revealed the existence of 2 different groups of patients: those with higher and with lower AFP levels, each with different patient and tumor characteristics. The Cox proportional-hazard model showed that a higher risk of death was correlated with GGTP and bilirubin levels, tumor size and number, and portal vein thrombosis (PVT), but not with AFP or platelet levels. An increased tumor size was associated with increased blood platelet counts, AFP and GGTP levels. Platelet and AFP levels were important indicators of tumor size, but not of survival.

  15. Shakespeare's storms

    OpenAIRE

    Jones, Gwilym John

    2010-01-01

    This thesis seeks to provide a new perspective on storms in Shakespeare. Rather than a recurrent motif, the storm is seen as protean: each play uses the storm in a singular way. The works of Shakespeare’s contemporaries are explored for comparison, whilst meteorological texts and accounts of actual storms are examined for context. Using close reading and theories of ecocriticism throughout, I show that Shakespeare’s storms are attentive to the environmental conditions of experience. Although ...

  16. Significance of cyclonic SubTropical Oceanic Rings of Magnitude (STORM) eddies for the carbon budget of the euphotic layer in the subtropical northeast Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    MouriñO, Beatriz; FernáNdez, Emilio; Etienne, Helene; HernáNdez, Fabrice; Giraud, Sylvie

    2003-12-01

    The interannual and seasonal variability of cyclonic eddies budded from the Azores Current during the period 1993-1999 in the northeast subtropical Atlantic region (20°N-34°N; 19°W-35°W) was studied by using TOPEX/Poseidon and ERS-1/2 altimeter images, the operational ocean mesoscale forecasting system SOPRANE, and a mesoscale eddies automatic detection system. Seventeen cyclonic eddies were detected and monitored for time periods ranging from 50 to 360 days. They were characterized by mean westward velocity, amplitude, diameter, and eccentricity of about 2 km d-1, 8 cm, 187 km and 0.7, respectively. The generation of cyclonic eddies was subjected to an important interannual variability, especially in 1995 when the activity of cyclonic eddies in the northeast Atlantic was more intense and associated with parallel changes in the eddy energy of the Azores Current. Seventy-five percent of the mesoscale features were generated throughout the October-February period. Significant relationships were found between the seasonal NAO index and both the annual eddy kinetic and potential energy in the Azores Current region and also the total annual area occupied by STORM eddies, calculated with a 1-year phase lag. The outcome of this study was used to estimate the contribution of STORM eddies to the organic carbon deficit measured in the northeast subtropical Atlantic. On average, these eddies accounted for <1% of the net community production in the region.

  17. Storm Surge Predictability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morss, R. E.; Fossell, K.; Ahijevych, D.; Davis, C. A.; Snyder, C.

    2016-12-01

    Storm surge is one of the most dangerous hazards of hurricanes; it results in devastating flooding and billions of dollars in damage to coastal regions and is one of the primary hurricane threats for loss of life. As such it is of great interest to better understand the probability of significant storm surge occurrence and the potential extent of impact at longer lead times to give emergency managers adequate time to plan for necessary evacuation and protective measures. This work aims to quantify the practical predictability of storm surge at various lead times and the sensitivity of the storm surge to storm parameters such as track, strength, size, and translation speed. This study also draws a distinction between inundation of a fixed region and inundation following the storm landfall location as the track varies. The latter is not usually considered, but is important for identifying particularly dangerous scenarios within the envelope of possible realizations. We quantify the predictability of storm surge from both the local and storm-following perspectives. The ADCIRC model is used to produce an ensemble of storm surge simulations. The ensemble is generated in an idealized context where the model is driven by best track data and perturbations from the best track (e.g. storm track, maximum wind, storm speed, and storm size). Inundation metrics are computed for both storm-following inundation and location-based inundation to better understand the predictive nature. While the magnitude of maximum inundation at a point is often emphasized in storm surge prediction studies, this study focuses on integrated metrics such as inundation volume and spatial extent of inundation along the coast and inland. Results will be presented from simulations of Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Charley, and a hypothetical storm that combines the size and intensity of Hurricane Charley over the track of Hurricane Ike, to demonstrate the sensitivity of inundation to a certain storm of certain

  18. Prognostic significance of tumour vascularisation on survival of patients with advanced ovarian carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Labiche, Alexandre; Elie, Nicolas; Herlin, Paulette; Denoux, Yves; Crouet, Hubert; Heutte, Natacha; Joly, Florence; Héron, Jean-François; Gauduchon, Pascal; Henry-Amar, Michel

    2009-04-01

    The prognostic significance of microvessel density in ovarian cancer is still a matter of debate. Classically, the degree of vascularisation is assessed in areas of high vascular density (hot spots), considered as regions of increased probability of metastasis. Since ovarian tumours have a particular progression and dissemination behaviour, vascularisation outside hot spots may also contribute to their evolution. In the present study, the degree of tumour vascularisation was estimated both in whole histogical sections and in hot spots, in 235 patients with ovarian carcinoma, using fully automatic image analysis methods. Six parameters were estimated: mean microvessel density (MVD) and mean microvessel surface fraction (MSP) on the whole section, mean and maximum values of MVD and MSP inside hot spots (MVDHS1, MSPHS1 and MVDHS2, MSPHS2). Relationships between vascular parameters and clinicopathologic features were analysed. In stage III-IV patients multivariate analysis showed that stage IV disease (hazards ratio (HR)=1.72, p=0.001), post-surgical residual disease 1cm (HR=2.86, p<0.001), upper MVD tercile (HR=1.45, p<0.022) and medial MVDHS1 tercile (HR=1.36, p=0.060) retained an independent prognostic value upon overall survival. Our results suggest that quantification of blood vessels, both on the whole histological section and in hot spots might be helpful in evaluating prognosis in advanced ovarian carcinomas.

  19. Learning Storm

    CERN Document Server

    Jain, Ankit

    2014-01-01

    If you are a Java developer who wants to enter into the world of real-time stream processing applications using Apache Storm, then this book is for you. No previous experience in Storm is required as this book starts from the basics. After finishing this book, you will be able to develop not-so-complex Storm applications.

  20. Local-regional radiotherapy and surgery is associated with a significant survival advantage in metastatic breast cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ly, Bevan Hong; Vlastos, Georges; Rapiti, Elisabetta; Vinh-Hung, Vincent; Nguyen, Nam Phong

    2010-01-01

    There is growing evidence of a survival benefit for metastatic breast cancer patients receiving surgery of the primary tumor. We investigated whether or not adjuvant radiotherapy can improve survival. Women diagnosed between 1988 and 2003 with metastatic, histologically confirmed unilateral primary breast cancer were selected from the SEER Program. Overall survival and specific survival were computed by the Kaplan-Meier method. Treatment hazard ratios of breast-conserving surgery or mastectomy versus no surgery, and radiotherapy versus none, were computed by Cox regression adjusting for period of diagnosis, age, marital status, race, histology, grade, and hormone receptors. Of 8761 women, radiotherapy was given to 1473 of 3905 who did not undergo surgery, to 882 of 2070 who underwent breast-conserving surgery, and to 1103 of 2786 mastectomy patients. Median overall survival was: for no surgery, 14 months; for breast-conserving surgery, 23 months; and for mastectomy, 28 months (P < 0.0001). The median overall survival of radiotherapy versus none was respectively 16 vs. 13 months without surgery (P = 0.0003), 28 vs. 20 months for breast-conserving surgery patients (P < 0.0001), and 28 vs. 28 months among mastectomy patients (P = 0.895). Multivariate analysis showed relative mortality reductions of 28% by breast-conserving surgery, 42% by mastectomy, and 10% by radiotherapy. Specific survival showed comparable results. Surgery and radiotherapy were associated with a significant survival advantage. We argue that local therapy should be considered even in metastatic disease.

  1. Sweet waste extract uptake by a mosquito vector: Survival, biting, fecundity responses, and potential epidemiological significance.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dieng, Hamady; Satho, Tomomitsu; Abang, Fatimah; Meli, Nur Khairatun Khadijah Binti; Ghani, Idris A; Nolasco-Hipolito, Cirilo; Hakim, Hafijah; Miake, Fumio; Ahmad, Abu Hassan; Noor, Sabina; Zuharah, Wan Fatma; Ahmad, Hamdan; Majid, Abdul Hafiz A; Morales Vargas, Ronald E; Morales, Noppawan P; Attrapadung, Siriluck; Noweg, Gabriel Tonga

    2017-05-01

    In nature, adult mosquitoes typically utilize nectar as their main energy source, but they can switch to other as yet unidentified sugary fluids. Contemporary lifestyles, with their associated unwillingness to consume leftovers and improper disposal of waste, have resulted in the disposal of huge amounts of waste into the environment. Such refuse often contains unfinished food items, many of which contain sugar and some of which can collect water from rain and generate juices. Despite evidence that mosquitoes can feed on sugar-rich suspensions, semi-liquids, and decaying fruits, which can be abundant in garbage sites, the impacts of sweet waste fluids on dengue vectors are unknown. Here, we investigated the effects of extracts from some familiar sweet home waste items on key components of vectorial capacity of Aedes aegypti. Adult mosquitoes were fed one of five diets in this study: water (WAT); sucrose (SUG); bakery product (remnant of chocolate cake, BAK); dairy product (yogurt, YOG); and fruit (banana (BAN). Differences in survival, response time to host, and egg production were examined between groups. For both males and females, maintenance on BAK extract resulted in marked survival levels that were similar to those seen with SUG. Sweet waste extracts provided better substrates for survival compared to water, but this superiority was mostly seen with BAK. Females maintained on BAK, YOG, and BAN exhibited shorter response times to a host compared to their counterparts maintained on SUG. The levels of egg production were equivalent in waste extract- and SUG-fed females. The findings presented here illustrate the potential of sweet waste-derived fluids to contribute to the vectorial capacity of dengue vectors and suggest the necessity of readdressing the issue of waste disposal, especially that of unfinished sweet foods. Such approaches can be particularly relevant in dengue endemic areas where rainfall is frequent and waste collection infrequent. Copyright

  2. Continues administration of Nano-PSO significantly increased survival of genetic CJD mice.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Binyamin, Orli; Keller, Guy; Frid, Kati; Larush, Liraz; Magdassi, Shlomo; Gabizon, Ruth

    2017-12-01

    We have shown previously that Nano-PSO, a nanodroplet formulation of pomegranate seed oil, delayed progression of neurodegeneration signs when administered for a designated period of time to TgMHu2ME199K mice, modeling for genetic prion disease. In the present work, we treated these mice with a self-emulsion formulation of Nano-PSO or a parallel Soybean oil formulation from their day of birth until a terminal disease stage. We found that long term Nano-PSO administration resulted in increased survival of TgMHu2ME199K lines by several months. Interestingly, initiation of treatment at day 1 had no clinical advantage over initiation at day 70, however cessation of treatment at 9months of age resulted in the rapid loss of the beneficial clinical effect. Pathological studies revealed that treatment with Nano-PSO resulted in the reduction of GAG accumulation and lipid oxidation, indicating a strong neuroprotective effect. Contrarily, the clinical effect of Nano-PSO did not correlate with reduction in the levels of disease related PrP, the main prion marker. We conclude that long term administration of Nano-PSO is safe and may be effective in the prevention/delay of onset of neurodegenerative conditions such as genetic CJD. Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Inc.

  3. Survival

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — These data provide information on the survival of California red-legged frogs in a unique ecosystem to better conserve this threatened species while restoring...

  4. Trace fossils of an amalgamated storm-bed succession from the Jurassic of the Kachchh Basin, India: The significance of time-averaging in ichnology

    OpenAIRE

    Franz T. Fürsich; Alfred Uchman; Matthias Alberti; Dhirendra K. Pandey

    2018-01-01

    The uppermost part of the Upper Bathonian Sponge Limestone member, Patcham Formation, of the Jhura Dome of Kachchh Mainland is a thickening- and shallowing-upward succession topped by medium- to thick-bedded hummocky cross-stratified grainstones deposited by storm waves. Occasionally, thin, commonly lenticular, intraclastic–bioclastic silty marl intercalations between the grainstones are highly bioturbated, in contrast to the grainstones, in which, for the most part, trace fossils occur scatt...

  5. Prognostic significance of tumour vascularisation on survival of patients with advanced ovarian carcinoma

    OpenAIRE

    Labiche, Alexandre; Elie, Nicolas; Herlin, Paulette; Denoux, Yves; Crouet, Hubert; Heutte, Natacha; Joly, Florence; Héron, Jean-François; Gauduchon, Pascal; Henry-Amar, Michel

    2009-01-01

    Objective. The prognostic significance of microvessel density in ovarian cancer is still a matter of debate. Classically, the degree of vascularisation is assessed in areas of high vascular density (hot spots), considered as regions of increased probability of metastasis. Since ovarian tumours have a particular progression and dissemination behaviour, vascularisation outside hot spots may also contribute to their evolution. Methods. In the present study, the degree of ...

  6. Significantly improved survival time in pigs with complete liver ischemia treated with a novel bioartificial liver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flendrig, L M; Calise, F; Di Florio, E; Mancini, A; Ceriello, A; Santaniello, W; Mezza, E; Sicoli, F; Belleza, G; Bracco, A; Cozzolino, S; Scala, D; Mazzone, M; Fattore, M; Gonzales, E; Chamuleau, R A

    1999-10-01

    Aim of the study was to evaluate treatment efficacy and safety of a scaled-up version of our porcine hepatocytes based BAL system in pigs with complete liver ischemia (LIS). Thirty-one pigs underwent total devascularization of the liver (LIS) by termino-lateral porta-caval shunts and sutures around the bile duct, the common hepatic and gastroduodenal arteries and their accessory branches. The hepato-duodenal ligament was completely transected. Four experimental groups were studied: the first control group (LIS Control, n = 10) received glucose infusion only, the second control group (LIS Plasmapheresis, n = 8) was connected to a centrifugal plasma-separator with a bottle representing the bioreactor volume, the third control group (LIS Empty-BAL, n = 5) received BAL treatment without cells, and the treated group (LIS Cell-BAL, n = 8) was connected for a maximum period of 24 hours to our scaled-up BAL seeded with around 14 billion viable primary porcine hepatocytes. BAL treatment significantly prolonged life in large animals (approximately 35 kg) with complete LIS (Controls, mean +/- SEM: 33.1 +/- 3 h, Cell-BAL: 51.1 +/- 3.4 h; p = 0.001; longest survivor 63 h). In addition, blood ammonia and total bilirubin levels decreased significantly, indicating metabolic activity of porcine hepatocytes in the bioreactor. No significant differences were noticed among the three control groups, indicating that there was no device effect and that the plasmapheresis procedure was well tolerated. No important adverse effects were observed.

  7. Tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes are significantly associated with better overall survival and disease-free survival in triple-negative but not estrogen receptor-positive breast cancers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krishnamurti, Uma; Wetherilt, Ceyda Sonmez; Yang, Jing; Peng, Limin; Li, Xiaoxian

    2017-06-01

    Correlation between tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes (TILs) and complete pathological response (pCR) in breast cancers in neoadjuvant settings have been reported. In this study, we analyzed the association between TILs and diagnostic and prognostic parameters in estrogen receptor-positive (ER+) and triple-negative breast cancer (TNBC) without neoadjuvant treatments. Three hundred forty-four (344) patients who underwent mastectomy for breast cancer (187 ER+ and 157 TNBC) without neoadjuvant treatments were evaluated. Percentage of overall and peripheral TILs were correlated with lymphovascular invasion (LVI), Nottingham histologic grade (NHG, 1/2 versus 3), stage, lymph node status (LN), overall survival (OS), and disease-free survival (DFS). In TNBC, both peripheral and overall TILs were significantly associated with NHG 3 (PP=.0354) and DFS (HR: 0.95; 95% CI: 0.91-1.00; P=.0314) in univariate and multivariate analysis. In ER+ breast cancer, only peripheral TILs were associated with NHG 3 (P=.018) but not with OS or DFS (both P>.05). In ER+ breast cancer, there was a negative association between Oncotype DX recurrence score and both overall (P=.0007) and peripheral TILs (P=.0119). In conclusion, peripheral but not overall TILs correlate with better OS and DFS in TNBC, indicating the location of TILs may be important in TNBC. The negative association between TILs and Oncotype DX score in ER+ may indicate the possible prognostic value of TILs in ER+ breast cancer. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Dust storms

    OpenAIRE

    Jin, Bihui; Rousseau, Ronald

    2008-01-01

    Dust storms are remarkable natural phenomena. They affect many countries in the Northern Hemisphere and, as such, have become an interesting research topic. We show that nowadays China is the number one publishing country of articles related to their study. On a world scale the number of publications on this topic is increasing exponentially.

  9. Trace fossils of an amalgamated storm-bed succession from the Jurassic of the Kachchh Basin, India: The significance of time-averaging in ichnology

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Franz T. Fürsich

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available The uppermost part of the Upper Bathonian Sponge Limestone member, Patcham Formation, of the Jhura Dome of Kachchh Mainland is a thickening- and shallowing-upward succession topped by medium- to thick-bedded hummocky cross-stratified grainstones deposited by storm waves. Occasionally, thin, commonly lenticular, intraclastic–bioclastic silty marl intercalations between the grainstones are highly bioturbated, in contrast to the grainstones, in which, for the most part, trace fossils occur scattered. Large exposures of bedding planes of the grainstones allow the detailed investigation of ichnological features, whereas the high density of traces in the soft marls precludes the identification of any ichnotaxa. Eighteen ichnotaxa have been recorded including Ophiomorpha, Thalassinoides, Taenidium, Gyrophyllites, Chondrites, Dactyloidites, Teichichnus, Bolonia, and Ancorichnus. Except for Ophiomorpha nodosa and Thalassinoides, which generally indicate moderate to high energy conditions and are the dwelling burrows of suspension-feeding to omnivorous crustaceans, the ichnotaxa represent a deposit-feeding behaviour of their producers and thus are characteristic of low-energy environments. The trace fossils form three ichnoassemblages characterized by (1 Ophiomorpha nodosa and Thalassinoides suevicus, (2 ?Thalassinoides isp. A, Taenidium, and Bolonia lata, and (3 Ancorichnus. The dominance of traces of deposit-feeders in rocks indicative of high-energy events is counterintuitive and points to their non-contemporaneity. The sediments were deposited during brief high-energy events, whereas the trace fossils were produced when, after waning of storms low-energy conditions prevailed. This time-averaging is particularly pronounced in trace fossils that extend vertically downwards and may reach strata deposited under distinctly different conditions. Thus, environmental interpretations based on trace fossils should refer to colonisation surfaces rather than

  10. Functionalized Scaffold-mediated Interleukin 10 Gene Delivery Significantly Improves Survival Rates of Stem Cells In Vivo

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holladay, Carolyn; Power, Karen; Sefton, Michael; O'Brien, Timothy; Gallagher, William M.; Pandit, Abhay

    2011-01-01

    While stem cell transplantation could potentially treat a variety of disorders, clinical studies have not yet demonstrated conclusive benefits. This may be partly because transplanted stem cells have low survival rates, potentially due to host inflammation. The system described herein used two different gene therapy techniques to improve retention of rat mesenchymal stem cells. In the first, stem cells were transfected with interleukin-10 (IL-10) before being loaded into a collagen scaffold. In the second, unmodified stem cells were loaded into a collagen scaffold along with polymer-complexed IL-10 plasmids. The scaffolds were surgically implanted into the dorsum of syngeneic rats. At each endpoint, the scaffolds were explanted and cell retention, IL-10 level and inflammatory response were quantified. All treatment groups had statistically significant increases in cell retention after 7 days, but the group treated with 2 µg of IL-10 polyplexes had a significant improvement even at 21 days. This cell retention was associated with increased IL-10 and decreased levels of proinflammatory cytokines and apoptosis. The primary effect on the inflammatory response appeared to be on macrophage differentiation, encouraging the regulatory phenotype over the cytotoxic lineage. Improving cell survival may be an important step toward realization of the therapeutic potential of stem cells. PMID:21266957

  11. Physical, Chemical and Biological Properties of the SubTropical Oceanic Rings of Magnitude (STORM) in the Eastern North Atlantic: Significance for the Carbon Budget of the Euphotic Layer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mouriño, B.; Fernandez, E.; Pingree, R.; Sinha, B.; Etienne, H.; Hernandez, F.; Giraud, S.; Escanez, J.; de Armas, D.

    2001-12-01

    A SubTropical Oceanic Ring of Magnitude (STORM) that budded from the Azores Current was studied in the Eastern North Atlantic Ocean in April 1999. The cyclonic eddy, called Leticia, was centred at ~32.4{ ~}N - 28.7{ ~}W and extended across a scale of more than 200 km in an east-west direction. Shallowing (>50 m) of the deep chlorophyll maximum (>0.3 mg m-3) was observed at the eddy centre associated with vertical displacements of the isotherms (>100 m) within the photic layer. Integrated nitrate concentration over the photic layer was ~four-folds higher inside Leticia than at external region, however primary production rates were only slightly higher. Eddy diffusive fluxes across the nitracline explained less than 25% of the nitrate required to sustain the estimated new production. Intensive knowledge on the duration and intensity of the isopycnal doming above the euphotic layer and the residence time of the Storm eddies is needed in order to understand the significance of these mesoscale features upon the carbon and nitrogen budgets of the subtropical NE Atlantic. To this aim, a study of the interannual and seasonal variability in the generation of Storm eddies was carried out during the period 1993-1999 by using TOPEX-POSEIDON altimeter images and the operational ocean mesoscale forecasting system SOPRANE. The outcome of this study was used to quantify the contribution of Storm eddies to the photosynthetic production, as well as to the the respiration rate, of particulate organic carbon in the NE Atlantic Subtropical Gyre region (20-34{ ~} N; 19-35{ ~}W).

  12. [Electrical storm in patients with prophylactic defibrillator implantation].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Mañero, Moisés; González-Cambeiro, Cristina; Moreno-Arribas, Jose; Expósito-García, Víctor; Sánchez-Gómez, Juan Miguel; González-Torres, Luis; Arce-León, Álvaro; Arguedas-Jiménez, Hugo; Gaztañaga, Larraitz; Salvador-Montañés, Oscar; Iglesias-Bravo, Jose Antonio; Huerta, Ana Andrés La; Fernández-Armenta, Juan; Arias, Miguel Ángel; Martínez-Sande, Luis

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the prevalence of electrical storm, baseline characteristics and mortality implications of patients with implantable cardioverter defibrillator in primary prevention versus those patients without electrical storm. We sought to assess the prevalence, baseline risk profile and survival significance of electrical storm in patients with implantable defibrillator for primary prevention. Retrospective multicenter study performed in 15 Spanish hospitals. Consecutives patients referred for desfibrillator implantation, with or without left ventricular lead (at least those performed in 2010 and 2011), were included. Over all 1,174 patients, 34 (2,9%) presented an electrical storm, mainly due to ventricular tachycardia (82.4%). There were no significant baseline differences between groups, with similar punctuation in the mortality risk scores (SHOCKED, MADIT and FADES). A clear trigger was identified in 47% of the events. During the study period (38±21 months), long-term total mortality (58.8% versus 14.4%, p<0.001) and cardiac mortality (52.9% versus 8.6%, p<0.001) were both increased among electrical storm patients. Rate of inappropriate desfibrillator intervention was also higher (14.7 versus 8.6%, p<0.001). In the present study of patients with desfibrillator implantation for primary prevention, prevalence of electrical storm was 2.9%. There were no baseline differences in the cardiovascular risk profile versus those without electrical storm. However, all cause mortality and cardiovascular mortality was increased in these patients versus control desfibrillator patients without electrical storm, as was the rate of inappropriate desfibrillator intervention. Copyright © 2015 Instituto Nacional de Cardiología Ignacio Chávez. Published by Masson Doyma México S.A. All rights reserved.

  13. Histological Subtype Remains a Significant Prognostic Factor for Survival Outcomes in Patients With Appendiceal Mucinous Neoplasm With Peritoneal Dissemination.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Yeqian; Alzahrani, Nayef A; Chua, Terence C; Morris, David L

    2017-04-01

    It has been increasingly recognized that appendiceal mucinous neoplasm with peritoneal dissemination is not a homogenous disease. This study aimed to examine the impact of different histological subtypes on survival of a large cohort of patients with appendiceal mucinous neoplasms uniformly treated by cytoreductive surgery and intraperitoneal chemotherapy. This was a retrospective study of prospectively collected data of patients with peritoneal dissemination of appendiceal neoplasm who underwent cytoreductive surgery and intraperitoneal chemotherapy. The study was conducted by 1 surgical team at St. George Hospital. A total of 444 patients formed the cohort of this study. Histological diagnoses were categorized based on Carr criteria to include acellular mucin, disseminated peritoneal adenomucinosis, peritoneal mucinous neoplasms without signet ring cells, and peritoneal mucinous carcinomatosis with signet cells. Patients with low-grade appendiceal mucinous neoplasms with neoplastic epithelium absent tended to have lower CEA, CA19-9, and CA125 levels preoperatively (p = 0.109, 0.008, and 0.034). Factor analysis showed that histological diagnosis was an independent prognostic factor for survival outcomes (HR = 3.13 (95% CI, 2.34-4.39); p 20, completeness of cytoreductive score ≥2, use of early postoperative intraperitoneal chemotherapy, transfusion units, CEA >7.0 mg/L, CA19-9 >24.0 U/mL, and CA125 >24 U/mL. This study was limited by its retrospective nature, lack of uniform classifications of appendiceal mucinous neoplasms in early years, and the heterogeneity of this study cohort given the long study period. Histological subtype remains a significant prognostic factor for survival outcomes in patients with appendiceal mucinous neoplasms. It should be taken into account when selecting patients for cytoreductive surgery, tailoring appropriate adjuvant therapies and follow-up surveillance plan.

  14. Ice storm `98

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soulard, F.; Trant, D.; Filoso, J.; Van Wesenbeeck, P. [Statistics Canada, Ottawa, ON (Canada). Environment Statistics Program

    1998-12-31

    As much as 100 millimeters of freezing rain fell on central and eastern Canada between January 4 to 10, 1998. This study concentrates on Canada`s St. Lawrence River Valley where total precipitation exceeded 73 mm in Kingston, 85 mm in Ottawa and 100 mm in areas south of Montreal. By comparison, the largest previously recorded ice storms left between 30 and 40 mm of ice. A state of emergency was declared for the affected regions. 56 per cent of Quebec`s population and 11 per cent of Ontario`s population were affected by the storm. Over 1000 power transmission towers collapsed and more than 30,000 wooden utility poles were brought down. In Quebec, nearly 1.4 million customers were left without electricity. In Ontario that number was about 230,000. While some manufacturers benefited directly from the storm, including makers of hydro and telephone poles, batteries and specialized electrical equipment, the overall economic losses for Montreal and Ottawa were high as estimates run to $585 million and $114 million, respectively. Almost 5 million sugar maple taps in Quebec and Ontario were located and suffered some damage in the affected areas. Nearly one-quarter (274,000) of all dairy cows were also located in the affected areas. Since in the absence of electricity they could not be milked, many of them suffered from mastitis. Many succumbed, others that survived may never attain their former level of productivity. As of June 1998, over 600,000 insurance claims totaling one billion dollars had been filed by Canadian households and businesses from the area affected by the ice storm.1 fig.

  15. Inhibition of CDK4/6 by Palbociclib Significantly Extends Survival in Medulloblastoma Patient-Derived Xenograft Mouse Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cook Sangar, Michelle L; Genovesi, Laura A; Nakamoto, Madison W; Davis, Melissa J; Knobluagh, Sue E; Ji, Pengxiang; Millar, Amanda; Wainwright, Brandon J; Olson, James M

    2017-10-01

    Purpose: Bioinformatics analysis followed by in vivo studies in patient-derived xenograft (PDX) models were used to identify and validate CDK 4/6 inhibition as an effective therapeutic strategy for medulloblastoma, particularly group 3 MYC-amplified tumors that have the worst clinical prognosis.Experimental Design: A protein interaction network derived from a Sleeping Beauty mutagenesis model of medulloblastoma was used to identify potential novel therapeutic targets. The top hit from this analysis was validated in vivo using PDX models of medulloblastoma implanted subcutaneously in the flank and orthotopically in the cerebellum of mice.Results: Informatics analysis identified the CDK4/6/CYCLIN D/RB pathway as a novel "druggable" pathway for multiple subgroups of medulloblastoma. Palbociclib, a highly specific inhibitor of CDK4/6, was found to inhibit RB phosphorylation and cause G1 arrest in PDX models of medulloblastoma. The drug caused rapid regression of Sonic hedgehog (SHH) and MYC-amplified group 3 medulloblastoma subcutaneous tumors and provided a highly significant survival advantage to mice bearing MYC-amplified intracranial tumors.Conclusions: Inhibition of CDK4/6 is potentially a highly effective strategy for the treatment of SHH and MYC-amplified group 3 medulloblastoma. Clin Cancer Res; 23(19); 5802-13. ©2017 AACR. ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  16. Cyclin D1 is significantly associated with stage of tumor and predicts poor survival in endometrial carcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khabaz, Mohamad Nidal; Abdelrahman, Amer Shafie; Butt, Nadeem Shafique; Al-Maghrabi, Basim; Al-Maghrabi, Jaudah

    2017-10-01

    Cyclin D1 overexpression has been described to have oncogenic role and association with diagnosis, prognosis and survival in various tumors. This study will describe the immunohistochemical phenotype of cyclin D1, and investigate the correlation between these patterns of expression and clinicopathological parameters of endometrial carcinomas, to conclude the clinical relevance of cyclin D1 expression in the evolution of endometrial neoplasms. This study employed 101 endometrial tissue samples which include 71 endometrial carcinomas and thirty normal and benign endometrium cases. All these tissue samples were used in the assembly of tissue microarrays which have been utilized afterward in immunohistochemistry staining to detect cyclin D1 expression. Forty (56.3%) cases of endometrial carcinomas showed brown nuclear expression of cyclin D1 including 36 (61%) cases of endometrioid carcinomas, and 3 (33.3%) cases of serous carcinomas. Twenty three (76.6%) cases of control group demonstrated nuclear expression. High score cyclin D1 immunohistochemical staining has been significantly linked with patient age (P=0.0001). Large proportion of high score cyclin D1 immunohistochemical staining was observed in females who are endometrial tissues in comparison with carcinomas. The distribution pattern of cyclin D1 immunoexpression suggests poor prognoses in endometrial carcinoma patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. Bromelain and N-acetylcysteine inhibit proliferation and survival of gastrointestinal cancer cells in vitro: significance of combination therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amini, Afshin; Masoumi-Moghaddam, Samar; Ehteda, Anahid; Morris, David Lawson

    2014-11-12

    Bromelain and N-acetylcysteine are two natural, sulfhydryl-containing compounds with good safety profiles which have been investigated for their benefits and application in health and disease for more than fifty years. As such, the potential values of these agents in cancer therapy have been variably reported in the literature. In the present study, the efficacy of bromelain and N-acetylcysteine in single agent and combination treatment of human gastrointestinal carcinoma cells was evaluated in vitro and the underlying mechanisms of effect were explored. The growth-inhibitory effects of bromelain and N-acetylcysteine, on their own and in combination, on a panel of human gastrointestinal carcinoma cell lines, including MKN45, KATO-III, HT29-5F12, HT29-5M21 and LS174T, were assessed by sulforhodamine B assay. Moreover, the influence of the treatment on the expression of a range of proteins involved in the regulation of cell cycle and survival was investigated by Western blot. The presence of apoptosis was also examined by TUNEL assay. Bromelain and N-acetylcysteine significantly inhibited cell proliferation, more potently in combination therapy. Drug-drug interaction in combination therapy was found to be predominantly synergistic or additive. Mechanistically, apoptotic bodies were detected in treated cells by TUNEL assay. Furthermore, Western blot analysis revealed diminution of cyclins A, B and D, the emergence of immunoreactive subunits of caspase-3, caspase-7, caspase-8 and cleaved PARP, withering or cleavage of procaspase-9, overexpression of cytochrome c, reduced expression of anti-apoptotic Bcl-2 and pro-survival phospho-Akt, the emergence of the autophagosomal marker LC3-II and deregulation of other autophagy-related proteins, including Atg3, Atg5, Atg7, Atg12 and Beclin 1. These results were more prominent in combination therapy. We report for the first time to our knowledge the growth-inhibitory and cytotoxic effects of bromelain and N-acetylcysteine, in

  18. Geomagnetic Storm Sudden Commencements

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Sudden Commencements (ssc) 1868 to present: STORM1 and STORM2 Lists: (Some text here is taken from the International Association of Geomagnetism and Aeronomy...

  19. Impacts on coralligenous outcrop biodiversity of a dramatic coastal storm.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Núria Teixidó

    Full Text Available Extreme events are rare, stochastic perturbations that can cause abrupt and dramatic ecological change within a short period of time relative to the lifespan of organisms. Studies over time provide exceptional opportunities to detect the effects of extreme climatic events and to measure their impacts by quantifying rates of change at population and community levels. In this study, we show how an extreme storm event affected the dynamics of benthic coralligenous outcrops in the NW Mediterranean Sea using data acquired before (2006-2008 and after the impact (2009-2010 at four different sites. Storms of comparable severity have been documented to occur occasionally within periods of 50 years in the Mediterranean Sea. We assessed the effects derived from the storm comparing changes in benthic community composition at sites exposed to and sheltered from this extreme event. The sites analyzed showed different damage from severe to negligible. The most exposed and impacted site experienced a major shift immediately after the storm, represented by changes in the species richness and beta diversity of benthic species. This site also showed higher compositional variability immediately after the storm and over the following year. The loss of cover of benthic species resulted between 22% and 58%. The damage across these species (e.g. calcareous algae, sponges, anthozoans, bryozoans, tunicates was uneven, and those with fragile forms were the most impacted, showing cover losses up to 50 to 100%. Interestingly, small patches survived after the storm and began to grow slightly during the following year. In contrast, sheltered sites showed no significant changes in all the studied parameters, indicating no variations due to the storm. This study provides new insights into the responses to large and rare extreme events of Mediterranean communities with low dynamics and long-lived species, which are among the most threatened by the effects of global change.

  20. Magnetic Storms at Mars and Earth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Falkenberg, Thea Vilstrup

    In analogy with magnetic storms at the Earth, periods of significantly enhanced global magnetic activity also exist at Mars. The extensive database of magnetic measurements from Mars Global Surveyor (MGS), covering almost an entire solar cycle, is used in combination with geomagnetic activity...... indices at Earth to compare the occurrence of magnetic storms at Mars and Earth. Based on superposed epochs analysis the time-development of typical magnetic storms at Mars and Earth is described. In contradiction to storms at Earth, most magnetic storms at Mars are found to be associated...... with heliospheric current sheet crossings, where the IMF changes polarity. While most storms at the Earth occur due to significant southward excursions of the IMF associated with CMEs, at Mars most storms seem to be associated with the density enhancement of the heliospheric current sheet. Density enhancements...

  1. Towards Developing Science of Survival (SOS) Pamphlets for "Typhoon, Flashflood, Storm Surge and Tsunami" and for "Earthquakes and Their Aftermath": A Pilot Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nivera, Gladys; Camacho, Vic Marie; Sia, Shila Rose; Avilla, Ruel; Butron, Benilda; Fernandez, Eisha Vienna; Pastor, Crist John; Reyes, Allan; Palomar, Brando

    2017-01-01

    The catastrophic devastation from recent natural calamities in the Philippines such as Typhoon Yolanda and Central Visayas earthquake in 2013 had made disaster preparedness a primary concern in the country. Prompted by the critical need to use science to save lives, this study developed Science of Survival (SOS) pamphlets titled "When the…

  2. Shoreline resilience to individual storms and storm clusters on a meso-macrotidal barred beach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angnuureng, Donatus Bapentire; Almar, Rafael; Senechal, Nadia; Castelle, Bruno; Addo, Kwasi Appeaning; Marieu, Vincent; Ranasinghe, Roshanka

    2017-08-01

    This study investigates the impact of individual storms and storm clusters on shoreline recovery for the meso-to macrotidal, barred Biscarrosse beach in SW France, using 6 years of daily video observations. While the study area experienced 60 storms during the 6-year study period, only 36 storms were analysed due to gaps in the video data. Based on the 36 individual storms and 13 storm clusters analysed, our results show that clustering impact is cumulatively weak and shoreline retreat is governed by the first storms in clusters, while the impact of subsequent events is less pronounced. The average post-storm beach recovery period at this site is 9 days, consistent with observations at other beaches. Apart from the dominant effect of present storm conditions, shoreline dynamics are also significantly affected by previous storm influence, while recovery is strongly modulated by tidal range and the bar location. Our results reveal that not only is the storm energy important but also the frequency of recurrence (storms result in greater retreat when time intervals between them are longer), which suggests an interaction between short storm events and longer-term evolution.

  3. Solar noise storms

    CERN Document Server

    Elgaroy, E O

    2013-01-01

    Solar Noise Storms examines the properties and features of solar noise storm phenomenon. The book also presents some theories that can be used to gain a better understanding of the phenomenon. The coverage of the text includes topics that cover the features and behavior of noise storms, such as the observable features of noise storms; the relationship between noise storms and the observable features on the sun; and ordered behavior of storm bursts in the time-frequency plane. The book also covers the spectrum, polarization, and directivity of noise storms. The text will be of great use to astr

  4. Cardiopulmonary Bypass has No Significant Impact on Survival in Patients Undergoing Nephrectomy and Level III-IV Inferior Vena Cava Thrombectomy: Multi-Institutional Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Hao G; Tilki, Derya; Dall'Era, Marc A; Durbin-Johnson, Blythe; Carballido, Joaquín A; Chandrasekar, Thenappan; Chromecki, Thomas; Ciancio, Gaetano; Daneshmand, Siamak; Gontero, Paolo; Gonzalez, Javier; Haferkamp, Axel; Hohenfellner, Markus; Huang, William C; Espinós, Estefania Linares; Mandel, Philipp; Martinez-Salamanca, Juan I; Master, Viraj A; McKiernan, James M; Montorsi, Francesco; Novara, Giacomo; Pahernik, Sascha; Palou, Juan; Pruthi, Raj S; Rodriguez-Faba, Oscar; Russo, Paul; Scherr, Douglas S; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Spahn, Martin; Terrone, Carlo; Vergho, Daniel; Wallen, Eric M; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Zigeuner, Richard; Libertino, John A; Evans, Christopher P

    2015-08-01

    The impact of cardiopulmonary bypass in level III-IV tumor thrombectomy on surgical and oncologic outcomes is unknown. We determine the impact of cardiopulmonary bypass on overall and cancer specific survival, as well as surgical complication rates and immediate outcomes in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III-IV tumor thrombectomy with or without cardiopulmonary bypass. We retrospectively analyzed 362 patients with renal cell cancer and with level III or IV tumor thrombus from 1992 to 2012 at 22 U.S. and European centers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare overall and cancer specific survival between patients with and without cardiopulmonary bypass. Perioperative mortality and complication rates were assessed using logistic regression analyses. Median overall survival was 24.6 months in noncardiopulmonary bypass cases and 26.6 months in cardiopulmonary bypass cases. Overall survival and cancer specific survival did not differ significantly in both groups on univariate analysis or when adjusting for known risk factors. On multivariate analysis no significant differences were seen in hospital length of stay, Clavien 1-4 complication rate, intraoperative or 30-day mortality and cancer specific survival. Limitations include the retrospective nature of the study. In our multi-institutional analysis the use of cardiopulmonary bypass did not significantly impact cancer specific survival or overall survival in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III or IV tumor thrombectomy. Neither approach was independently associated with increased mortality on multivariate analysis. Greater surgical complications were not independently associated with the use of cardiopulmonary bypass. Copyright © 2015 American Urological Association Education and Research, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. TIMP-1 Is Significantly Associated with Objective Response and Survival in Metastatic Colorectal Cancer Patients Receiving Combination of Irinotecan, 5-Fluorouracil, and Folinic Acid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sørensen, Nanna M; Byström, Per; Christensen, Ib Jarle

    2007-01-01

    the curve 0.66) butmuchless so. PlasmaTIMP-1was the only significant covariate in a multivariable analysis of best objective response (OR, 3.6; 95%CI,1.4-9.5; P = 0.001). PlasmaTIMP-1scoredas a continuous variable on the log scale (loge) was significantly associatedwith overall survival [OS; hazardr atio...

  6. Physical activity level significantly affects the survival of patients with end-stage lung disease on a waiting list for lung transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komatsu, Teruya; Oshima, Ayako; Chen-Yoshikawa, Toyofumi F; Harashima, Shin-Ichi; Aoyama, Akihiro; Inagaki, Nobuya; Date, Hiroshi

    2017-12-01

    Our objective was to investigate the factors predicting the survival of patients on the waiting list for lung transplantation (LT) during the waiting period, with a special emphasis on the physical activity level. The study included 70 patients with end-stage pulmonary disease who were on the waiting list for LT at Kyoto University Hospital. We examined the association between the baseline characteristics, including the body mass index and body composition, serum albumin, serum C-reactive protein (CRP), steroid administration, physical activity level (calculated by the food frequency questionnaire) and survival during the waiting period using Kaplan-Meier curves and Cox proportional hazard regression models. A physical activity level of ≤1.2 was correlated with significantly decreased survival (1-year survival: 68 vs. 90.9%, p = 0.0089), with a hazard ratio (HR) of 2.24 (95% confidence interval (CI) 1.22-4.19, p = 0.0001). Hypo-albumin (HR 2.024, 95% CI 1.339-6.009, p = 0.004), a high level of CRP (HR 2.551, CI 1.229-4.892, p = 0.02), and the administration of steroids (HR 2.258, CI 1.907-5.032, p = 0.024) were also significant predictors of survival. Low levels of physical activity during the waiting period for LT led to decreased survival times among LT candidates.

  7. Cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) has no significant impact on survival in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III-IV inferior vena cava thrombectomy; a multi-institutional analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dall'Era, Marc A.; Durbin-Johnson, Blythe; Carballido, Joaquín A.; Chandrasekar, Thenappan; Chromecki, Thomas; Ciancio, Gaetano; Daneshmand, Siamak; Gontero, Paolo; Gonzalez, Javier; Haferkamp, Axel; Hohenfellner, Markus; Huang, William C.; Espinós, Estefania Linares; Mandel, Philipp; Martinez-Salamanca, Juan I.; Master, Viraj A.; McKiernan, James M.; Montorsi, Francesco; Novara, Giacomo; Pahernik, Sascha; Palou, Juan; Pruthi, Raj S.; Rodriguez-Faba, Oscar; Russo, Paul; Scherr, Douglas S.; Shariat, Shahrokh F.; Spahn, Martin; Terrone, Carlo; Vergho, Daniel; Wallen, Eric M.; Xylinas, Evanguelos; Zigeuner, Richard; Libertino, John A.; Evans, Christopher P.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose The impact of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) usage in level III-IV tumor thrombectomy on surgical and oncologic outcomes is unknown. We sought to determine the impact of cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) on overall and cancer specific survival, as well as surgical complication rates, and immediate outcomes in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III-IV tumor thrombectomy with or without CPB. Patients and Methods We retrospectively analyzed 362 patients with RCC and with level III or IV tumor thrombus from 1992 to 2012 in 22 US and European centers. Cox proportional hazards models were used to compare overall and cancer-specific survival between patients with and without CPB. Perioperative mortality and complications rates were assessed using logistic regression analyses. Results The median overall survival was 24.6 months in non-CPB patients and 26.6 months in CPB patients. Overall survival and cancer-specific survival (CSS) did not differ significantly in both groups, neither in univariate analysis nor when adjusting for known risk factors. In multivariate analysis, no significant differences were seen in hospital LOS, Clavien 1-4 complication rate, intraoperative or 30 day mortality, and CSS between both groups. Limitations include the retrospective nature of the study. Conclusions In our multi-institutional analysis, the use of cardiopulmonary bypass did not significantly impact cancer specific survival or overall survival in patients undergoing nephrectomy and level III or IV tumor thrombectomy. Neither approach was independently associated with increased mortality in the multivariate analysis. Higher surgical complications were not independently associated with the use of CPB. PMID:25797392

  8. Significant survival improvement of patients with recurrent breast cancer in the periods 2001-2008 vs. 1992-2000

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nishimura Sumiko

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background It is unclear whether individualized treatments based on biological factors have improved the prognosis of recurrent breast cancer. The purpose of this study is to evaluate the survival improvement of patients with recurrent breast cancer after the introduction of third generation aromatase inhibitors (AIs and trastuzumab. Methods A total of 407 patients who received first diagnosis of recurrent breast cancer and treatment at National Kyushu Cancer Center between 1992 and 2008 were retrospectively evaluated. As AIs and trastuzumab were approved for clinical use in Japan in 2001, the patients were divided into two time cohorts depending on whether the cancer recurred before or after 2001. Cohort A: 170 patients who were diagnosed between 1992 and 2000. Cohort B: 237 patients who were diagnosed between 2001 and 2008. Tumor characteristics, treatments, and outcome were compared. Results Fourteen percent of cohort A and 76% of cohort B received AIs and/or trastuzumab (P Conclusions The prognosis of patients with recurrent breast cancer was improved over time following the introduction of AIs and trastuzumab and the survival improvement was apparent in HR- and/or HER-2-positive tumors.

  9. The Earth's Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapivin, Vladimir F; Varotsos, Costas A; Soldatov, Vladimir Yu

    2017-08-07

    This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled "nature-society system (NSS) model", through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts.

  10. The Earth’s Population Can Reach 14 Billion in the 23rd Century without Significant Adverse Effects on Survivability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krapivin, Vladimir F.; Varotsos, Costas A.; Soldatov, Vladimir Yu.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the results obtained from the study of the sustainable state between nature and human society on a global scale, focusing on the most critical interactions between the natural and anthropogenic processes. Apart from the conventional global models, the basic tool employed herein is the newly proposed complex model entitled “nature-society system (NSS) model”, through which a reliable modeling of the processes taking place in the global climate-nature-society system (CNSS) is achieved. This universal tool is mainly based on the information technology that allows the adaptive conformance of the parametric and functional space of this model. The structure of this model includes the global biogeochemical cycles, the hydrological cycle, the demographic processes and a simple climate model. In this model, the survivability indicator is used as a criterion for the survival of humanity, which defines a trend in the dynamics of the total biomass of the biosphere, taking into account the trends of the biocomplexity dynamics of the land and hydrosphere ecosystems. It should be stressed that there are no other complex global models comparable to those of the CNSS model developed here. The potential of this global model is demonstrated through specific examples in which the classification of the terrestrial ecosystem is accomplished by separating 30 soil-plant formations for geographic pixels 4° × 5°. In addition, humanity is considered to be represented by three groups of economic development status (high, transition, developing) and the World Ocean is parameterized by three latitude zones (low, middle, high). The modelling results obtained show the dynamics of the CNSS at the beginning of the 23rd century, according to which the world population can reach the level of 14 billion without the occurrence of major negative impacts. PMID:28783136

  11. Significance of baseline bone markers on disease progression and survival in hormone-sensitive prostate cancer with bone metastasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nozawa, Masahiro; Hara, Isao; Matsuyama, Hideyasu; Iki, Masayuki; Nagao, Kazuhiro; Nishioka, Tsukasa; Komura, Takahiro; Esa, Atsunobu; Uejima, Shigeya; Imanishi, Masaaki; Uekado, Yasunari; Ogawa, Takatoshi; Kajikawa, Hiroshi; Uemura, Hirotsugu

    2015-09-01

    This study evaluated the baseline patient characteristics associated with the time to biochemical progression and overall survival in patients who participated in a phase II trial on zoledronic acid combined with the initial androgen-deprivation therapy for treatment-naïve bone-metastatic prostate cancer. Patients received zoledronic acid 4 mg intravenously every 4 weeks for up to 24 months, concomitantly started with bicalutamide 80 mg orally every day and goserelin acetate 10.8 mg subcutaneously every 12 weeks. A total of 53 Japanese patients were enrolled between July 2008 and April 2010, and 52 patients were evaluable. Median follow-up period was 41.6 months. Updated median time to biochemical progression was 25.9 months (95 % confidence interval 14.5-49.9). Higher serum bone-specific alkaline phosphatase was an independent risk factor for time to biochemical progression based on multivariate analysis (hazard ratio 6.51; 95 % confidence interval 2.71-15.62; P prostate cancer treated with upfront zoledronic acid concomitantly started with androgen-deprivation therapy.

  12. NCDC Storm Events Database

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Storm Data is provided by the National Weather Service (NWS) and contain statistics on personal injuries and damage estimates. Storm Data covers the United States of...

  13. Reduced-dose cyclosporine with mycophenolate mofetil and prednisone significantly improves the long-term glomerular filtration rate and graft survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Rending; Xu, Ying; Wu, Jianyong; Wang, Yimin; He, Qiang; Chen, Jianghua

    2013-01-01

    It remains debated whether reduced doses of chronic calcineurin inhibitors benefit graft survival. This retrospective study analyzed 60 first cadaveric renal transplant recipients who received cyclosporine (CSA), mycophenolate mofetil (MMF) and prednisone (CMP group) and 71 recipients who received reduced-dose CSA with prednisone and MMF (RCMP group). All recipients were followed for at least 96 months. The Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) glomerular filtration rate (GFR) calculated at different time points, graft survival, the incidence of chronic allograft nephropathy (CAN) and the acute rejection rate within six months were analyzed and compared between the two groups. The incidence of acute rejection within six months post-transplant was 15.5% (11/71) in the RCMP group and 13.3% (8/60) in the CMP group. This difference was not significant (p=0.727). The MDRD-calculated GFR in the CMP group reached a peak at 24 months post-transplant (66.6 ± 20.2 mL/min/1.73 m(2)) then decreased gradually. In contrast, in the RCMP group, the GFR reached a peak at 36 months post-transplant (76.9 ± 19.6 mL/min/1.73 m(2)). The GFR from month 36 to month 96 was significantly higher in the RCMP group than in the CMP group. The Kaplan-Meier calculated death-censored graft survival in the RCMP group was significantly higher than that observed in the CMP group, with an estimated cumulative proportion surviving at 96 months of 95.5% in the RCMP group and 83.5% in the CMP group. The incidence of CAN within 96 months was 5.6% (4/71) in the RCMP group vs. 16.7% (10/60) in the CMP group (p=0.042). An RCMP regimen can significantly improve the long-term GFR level and benefit graft survival.

  14. Understanding Storm Time Poynting Flux Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garner, H. M.; Ober, D. M.; Wilson, G. R.

    2012-12-01

    It is known that energy deposited by dayside Earth-directed Poynting flux (S||) is greater during geomagnetic storms; however, S|| spatial and temporal variability are less well understood. Eight years (2000-2008) of data from the WDC for Geomagnetism, Kyoto, were collected to identify thirteen large and five super storms according to specific criteria: "classic" storm structure in which the time interval between sudden storm commencement (SSC) and minimum Dst (Dstmin) was ≤ 24 hours; the main and recovery phases did not experience secondary or tertiary disturbances; large storms where Dst ≤ -93 nT; and, super storms where Dst ≤ -184 nT. Solar wind and magnetospheric data for the 18 storms were collected from the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP F-15) and NASA OMNI. For all storms, the data were averaged and plotted to identify S|| variability for the mantle, cusp, polar rain, and central and boundary layer plasma sheet regions during geomagnetic storm time. As known for all storms, while Dst decreased, average S|| peaked, as did Kp. The energy deposited per square-meter by precipitating energetic particles (electrons) did not increase, though average hemispheric power increased by nearly a factor of two for the large and super storms between SSC and Dstmin. For the large storms, average S|| from the central and boundary layer plasma sheet regions (on closed field lines) was enhanced by nearly a factor of two between SSC and Dstmin; for the super storms, enhancement was over a factor of three. Average large storm S|| enhancement from the mantle, cusp, and polar rain regions (on open field lines) was significantly more enhanced by a factor of three between SSC and Dstmin. It was enhanced by a factor of over five for the super storms. For the open field line regions, a large, prolonged secondary peak in S|| was observed for large and super storms during the recovery phase. As suggested by this and prior studies, research is needed to better

  15. Minimally invasive esophagectomy provides significant survival advantage compared with open or hybrid esophagectomy for patients with cancers of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palazzo, Francesco; Rosato, Ernest L; Chaudhary, Asadulla; Evans, Nathaniel R; Sendecki, Jocelyn A; Keith, Scott; Chojnacki, Karen A; Yeo, Charles J; Berger, Adam C

    2015-04-01

    Minimally invasive esophagectomy (MIE) is increasingly being used to treat patients with cancer of the esophagus and gastroesophageal junction. We previously reported that oncologic efficacy may be improved with MIE compared with open or hybrid esophagectomy (OHE). We compared survival of patients undergoing MIE and OHE. Our contemporary series of patients who underwent MIE (2008 to 2013) was compared with a cohort undergoing OHE (3-hole [n = 39], Ivor Lewis [n = 16], hybrid [n = 13], 2000 to 2013). Summary statistics were calculated by operation type; Kaplan-Meier methods were used to compare survival. Cox regression was used to assess the impact of operation type (MIE vs OHE) on mortality, adjusting for age, sex, total lymph nodes, lymph node ratio (LNR), neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy (CRT), and stage. The MIE (n = 104) and OHE (n = 68) groups were similar with respect to age and sex. The MIE group tended to have higher BMI, earlier stage disease, and was less likely to receive CRT. The MIE group experienced lower operative mortality (3.9% vs 8.8%, p = 0.35) and significantly fewer major complications. Five-year survival between groups was significantly different (MIE, 64%, OHE, 35%, p analysis demonstrated that patients undergoing OHE had a significantly worse survival compared with MIE independent of age, LNR, CRT, and pathologic stage (hazard ratio 2.00, p = 0.019). This study supports MIE for EC as a superior procedure with respect to overall survival, perioperative mortality, and severity of postoperative complications. Several biases may have affected these results: earlier stage in the MIE group and disparity in timing of the procedures. These results will need to be confirmed in future prospective studies with longer follow-up. Copyright © 2015 American College of Surgeons. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. Ecosystem Responses to Pacific Storm Track Variability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dannenberg, M. P.; Wise, E.

    2016-12-01

    Much of the precipitation delivered to western North America arrives during winter via the midlatitude Pacific storm track. The strength and position and of the storm track varies from year to year, and this variation is a major driver of western hydroclimate. We examine the responses of both hydrological and ecological indicators to the position of the storm track using a regional reanalysis, historical climate data, and remotely sensed land surface phenology and burn area estimates. We find that the standardized precipitation-evapotranspiration index (SPEI) exhibits a dipole-type response to variation in the position of the storm track. In the northwestern United States, more northerly storm tracks are associated with dry winters while more southerly storm tracks are associated with wet winters. Northwestern Canada shows the opposite response. Likewise, there is a negative relationship between snow water equivalent and storm track latitude throughout the Cascades, Sierras, and parts of the Rockies, but a positive relationship in northwestern Canada and eastern Alaska. Variability of the Pacific storm track and associated precipitation and snow pack anomalies have significant consequences for ecological and biogeochemical processes in the water-sensitive ecosystems of western North America. In the northwestern United States, the area burned by moderate and severe fire is positively correlated with storm track latitude, likely a result of drier conditions when the storm track is displaced north. While there is a relatively small response of vegetation phenology to storm track variability, the peak greenness of the land surface exhibits a dipole response similar to the SPEI. A long-term northerly shift in the position of the midlatitude Pacific storm track, as expected under a warming climate, could therefore alter both the prevailing hydroclimatic regimes and ecosystem processes of western North America.

  17. Gemtuzumab Ozogamicin (GO Inclusion to Induction Chemotherapy Eliminates Leukemic Initiating Cells and Significantly Improves Survival in Mouse Models of Acute Myeloid Leukemia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cathy C Zhang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Gemtuzumab ozogamicin (GO is an anti-CD33 antibody-drug conjugate for the treatment of acute myeloid leukemia (AML. Although GO shows a narrow therapeutic window in early clinical studies, recent reports detailing a modified dosing regimen of GO can be safely combined with induction chemotherapy, and the combination provides significant survival benefits in AML patients. Here we tested whether the survival benefits seen with the combination arise from the enhanced reduction of chemoresidual disease and leukemic initiating cells (LICs. Herein, we use cell line and patient-derived xenograft (PDX AML models to evaluate the combination of GO with daunorubicin and cytarabine (DA induction chemotherapy on AML blast growth and animal survival. DA chemotherapy and GO as separate treatments reduced AML burden but left significant chemoresidual disease in multiple AML models. The combination of GO and DA chemotherapy eliminated nearly all AML burden and extended overall survival. In two small subsets of AML models, chemoresidual disease following DA chemotherapy displayed hallmark markers of leukemic LICs (CLL1 and CD34. In vivo, the two chemoresistant subpopulations (CLL1+/CD117− and CD34+/CD38+ showed higher ability to self-renewal than their counterpart subpopulations, respectively. CD33 was coexpressed in these functional LIC subpopulations. We demonstrate that the GO and DA induction chemotherapy combination more effectively eliminates LICs in AML PDX models than either single agent alone. These data suggest that the survival benefit seen by the combination of GO and induction chemotherapy, nonclinically and clinically, may be attributed to the enhanced reduction of LICs.

  18. Molecular subtype and tumor characteristics of breast cancer metastases as assessed by gene expression significantly influence patient post-relapse survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tobin, N P; Harrell, J C; Lövrot, J; Egyhazi Brage, S; Frostvik Stolt, M; Carlsson, L; Einbeigi, Z; Linderholm, B; Loman, N; Malmberg, M; Walz, T; Fernö, M; Perou, C M; Bergh, J; Hatschek, T; Lindström, L S

    2015-01-01

    We and others have recently shown that tumor characteristics are altered throughout tumor progression. These findings emphasize the need for re-examination of tumor characteristics at relapse and have led to recommendations from ESMO and the Swedish Breast Cancer group. Here, we aim to determine whether tumor characteristics and molecular subtypes in breast cancer metastases confer clinically relevant prognostic information for patients. The translational aspect of the Swedish multicenter randomized trial called TEX included 111 patients with at least one biopsy from a morphologically confirmed locoregional or distant breast cancer metastasis diagnosed from December 2002 until June 2007. All patients had detailed clinical information, complete follow-up, and metastasis gene expression information (Affymetrix array GPL10379). We assessed the previously published gene expression modules describing biological processes [proliferation, apoptosis, human epidermal receptor 2 (HER2) and estrogen (ER) signaling, tumor invasion, immune response, and angiogenesis] and pathways (Ras, MAPK, PTEN, AKT-MTOR, PI3KCA, IGF1, Src, Myc, E2F3, and β-catenin) and the intrinsic subtypes (PAM50). Furthermore, by contrasting genes expressed in the metastases in relation to survival, we derived a poor metastasis survival signature. A significant reduction in post-relapse breast cancer-specific survival was associated with low-ER receptor signaling and apoptosis gene module scores, and high AKT-MTOR, Ras, and β-catenin module scores. Similarly, intrinsic subtyping of the metastases provided statistically significant post-relapse survival information with the worst survival outcome in the basal-like [hazard ratio (HR) 3.7; 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.3-10.9] and HER2-enriched (HR 4.4; 95% CI 1.5-12.8) subtypes compared with the luminal A subtype. Overall, 25% of the metastases were basal-like, 32% HER2-enriched, 10% luminal A, 28% luminal B, and 5% normal-like. We show that tumor

  19. Prognostic significance of electrical alternans versus signal averaged electrocardiography in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armoundas, A. A.; Rosenbaum, D. S.; Ruskin, J. N.; Garan, H.; Cohen, R. J.

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the accuracy of signal averaged electrocardiography (SAECG) and measurement of microvolt level T wave alternans as predictors of susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmias. DESIGN: Analysis of new data from a previously published prospective investigation. SETTING: Electrophysiology laboratory of a major referral hospital. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: 43 patients, not on class I or class III antiarrhythmic drug treatment, undergoing invasive electrophysiological testing had SAECG and T wave alternans measurements. The SAECG was considered positive in the presence of one (SAECG-I) or two (SAECG-II) of three standard criteria. T wave alternans was considered positive if the alternans ratio exceeded 3.0. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Inducibility of sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation during electrophysiological testing, and 20 month arrhythmia-free survival. RESULTS: The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing was 84% (p antiarrhythmic agents. The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of arrhythmia-free survival was 86% (p < 0.030). Neither SAECG-I (accuracy 65%; p < 0.21) nor SAECG-II (accuracy 71%; p < 0.48) was a statistically significant predictor of arrhythmia-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: T wave alternans was a highly significant predictor of the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival, while SAECG was not a statistically significant predictor. Although these results need to be confirmed in prospective clinical studies, they suggest that T wave alternans may serve as a non-invasive probe for screening high risk populations for malignant ventricular arrhythmias.

  20. History of autoimmune disease is associated with impaired survival in multiple myeloma and monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lindqvist, Ebba K; Landgren, Ola; Lund, Sigrún H; Turesson, Ingemar; Hultcrantz, Malin; Goldin, Lynn; Björkholm, Magnus; Kristinsson, Sigurdur Y

    2017-02-01

    Multiple myeloma (MM) is a plasma cell disorder preceded by monoclonal gammopathy of undetermined significance (MGUS). Incidence of MM and MGUS is higher among patients with autoimmune disease. The aim of this study was to determine whether a history of autoimmunity has an impact on survival in MM and MGUS. Using high-quality national Swedish registries, we identified 8367 patients with MM, 18,768 patients with MGUS, and 110,251 matched control subjects, and obtained information on previous autoimmune disease in patients and controls. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HRs) for overall survival with 95 % confidence intervals (CIs). In patients with MM and a prior autoimmune disease, the risk of death was significantly increased, HR = 1.2 (95 % CI 1.2-1.3) compared to MM patients with no history of autoimmunity. In MGUS patients, a prior autoimmune disease was associated with a significantly 1.4-fold elevated risk of death (95 % CI 1.3-1.4). When analyzing different types of autoimmune diseases, a history of ulcerative colitis had a stronger impact on survival in MM than in controls. Our findings that a history of autoimmune disease has a negative impact on survival in MM and MGUS could be due to shared underlying common genetic factors, or that patients with a history of autoimmunity develop more severe cases of MM and MGUS, or cumulative comorbidity in the individual. Our results suggest that more attention should be paid to comorbidity as a prognostic factor in MGUS and MM, and underlines the need for studies aimed at tailoring therapy according to comorbidity.

  1. Prognostic significance of electrical alternans versus signal averaged electrocardiography in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armoundas, A. A.; Rosenbaum, D. S.; Ruskin, J. N.; Garan, H.; Cohen, R. J.

    1998-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To investigate the accuracy of signal averaged electrocardiography (SAECG) and measurement of microvolt level T wave alternans as predictors of susceptibility to ventricular arrhythmias. DESIGN: Analysis of new data from a previously published prospective investigation. SETTING: Electrophysiology laboratory of a major referral hospital. PATIENTS AND INTERVENTIONS: 43 patients, not on class I or class III antiarrhythmic drug treatment, undergoing invasive electrophysiological testing had SAECG and T wave alternans measurements. The SAECG was considered positive in the presence of one (SAECG-I) or two (SAECG-II) of three standard criteria. T wave alternans was considered positive if the alternans ratio exceeded 3.0. MAIN OUTCOME MEASURES: Inducibility of sustained ventricular tachycardia or fibrillation during electrophysiological testing, and 20 month arrhythmia-free survival. RESULTS: The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of electrophysiological testing was 84% (p data were available in 36 patients while not on class I or III antiarrhythmic agents. The accuracy of T wave alternans in predicting the outcome of arrhythmia-free survival was 86% (p < 0.030). Neither SAECG-I (accuracy 65%; p < 0.21) nor SAECG-II (accuracy 71%; p < 0.48) was a statistically significant predictor of arrhythmia-free survival. CONCLUSIONS: T wave alternans was a highly significant predictor of the outcome of electrophysiological testing and arrhythmia-free survival, while SAECG was not a statistically significant predictor. Although these results need to be confirmed in prospective clinical studies, they suggest that T wave alternans may serve as a non-invasive probe for screening high risk populations for malignant ventricular arrhythmias.

  2. Two-step grafting significantly enhances the survival of foetal dopaminergic transplants and induces graft-derived vascularisation in a 6-OHDA model of Parkinson's disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Büchele, Fabian; Döbrössy, Máté; Hackl, Christina; Jiang, Wei; Papazoglou, Anna; Nikkhah, Guido

    2014-08-01

    Following transplantation of foetal primary dopamine (DA)-rich tissue for neurorestaurative treatment of Parkinson's disease (PD), only 5-10% of the functionally relevant DAergic cells survive both in experimental models and in clinical studies. The current work tested how a two-step grafting protocol could have a positive impact on graft survival. DAergic tissue is divided in two portions and grafted in two separate sessions into the same target area within a defined time interval. We hypothesized that the first graft creates a "DAergic" microenvironment or "nest" similar to the perinatal substantia nigra that stimulates and protects the second graft. 6-OHDA-lesioned rats were sequentially transplanted with wild-type (GFP-, first graft) and transgenic (GFP+, second graft) DAergic cells in time interims of 2, 5 or 9days. Each group was further divided into two sub-groups receiving either 200k (low cell number groups: 2dL, 5dL, 9dL) or 400k cells (high cell number groups: 2dH, 5dH, 9dH) as first graft. During the second transplantation, all groups received the same amount of 200k GFP+ cells. Controls received either low or high cell numbers in one single session (standard protocol). Drug-induced rotations, at 2 and 6weeks after grafting, showed significant improvement compared to the baseline lesion levels without significant differences between the groups. Rats were sacrificed 8weeks after transplantation for post-mortem histological assessment. Both two-step groups with the time interval of 2days (2dL and 2dH) showed a significantly higher survival of DAergic cells compared to their respective standard control group (2dL, +137%; 2dH, +47%). Interposing longer intervals of 5 or 9days resulted in the loss of statistical significance, neutralising the beneficial two-step grafting effect. Furthermore, the transplants in the 2dL and 2dH groups had higher graft volume and DA-fibre-density values compared to all other two-step groups. They also showed intense growth of

  3. SURVIVABILITY THROUGH OPTIMIZING RESILIENT MECHANISMS (STORM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-04-01

    proactively reprogram a single structured Application Specific Integrated Circuit (ASIC) to mimic the need-to-replace legacy IC as well as neighboring ICs...promising techniques are under development. Considering the decentralized network architecture , most of Trajectory Privacy Preservation (TPP) techniques

  4. Aggressive Treatment of Performance Status 1 and 2 HCC Patients Significantly Improves Survival - an Egyptian Retrospective Cohort Study of 524 Cases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aziz, Ashraf Omar Abdel; Omran, Dalia; Nabeel, Mohamed Mahmoud; Elbaz, Tamer Mahmoud; Abdelmaksoud, Ahmed Hosni; Attar, Inas El; Shousha, Hend Ibrahim

    2016-01-01

    In the Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer (BCLC) system, only sorafenib is suggested for HCC patients having performance status (PS) 1 or 2 even if they have treatable lesions. In the current study, we aimed to explore the outcome of using aggressive treatment for HCC patients with PS 1 and 2. Five hundred and twenty four patients with HCC were enrolled in this study and divided into 2 groups: 404 PS 1 and 120 PS 2. Of the included 524 patients, 136 recceived non-aggressive supportive treatment and sorafenib, while 388 patients were offered aggressive treatment in the form of surgical resection, transplantation, percutaneous ablation, trans-arterial chemoembolization and/or chemoperfusion. All the patients were followed up for a period of 2 years to determine their survival. Most HCC patients were CHILD A and B grades (89.4% versus 85.0%, for PS1 and PS2, respectively). Patients with PS1 were significantly younger. Out of the enrolled 524 patients, 388 were offered aggressive treatment, 253 (65.2%) having their lesions fully ablated, 94 (24.2%) undergoing partial ablation and 41 patients with no ablation (10.6%). The median survival of the patients with PS 1 who were offered aggressive treatment was 20 months versus 9 months only for those who were offered supportive treatment and sorafenib (<0.001). Regarding HCC patients with PS 2, the median survivals were similarly 19.7 months versus 8.7 months only (<0.001). Aggressive treatment of HCC patients with PS 1 and 2 significantly improves their survival. Revising the BCLC guidelines regarding such patients is recommended.

  5. The number of positive nodes and the ratio of positive to excised nodes are significant predictors of survival in women with micrometastatic node-positive breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Truong, Pauline T; Vinh-Hung, Vincent; Cserni, Gabor; Woodward, Wendy A; Tai, Patricia; Vlastos, Georges

    2008-08-01

    To evaluate the prognostic impact of the number of positive nodes and the lymph node ratio (LNR) of positive to excised nodes on survival in women diagnosed with nodal micrometastatic breast cancer before the era of widespread sentinel lymph node biopsy. Subjects were 62,551 women identified by the Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results database, diagnosed with pT1-2pN0-1 breast cancer between 1988 and 1997. Kaplan-Meier breast cancer-specific survival (BCSS) and overall survival (OS) were compared between three cohorts: node-negative (pN0, n=57,980) nodal micrometastasis all 2mm but or= 4) and the LNR (0.25). Median follow-up was 7.3 yr. Ten-year BCSS and OS in pNmic breast cancer were significantly lower compared to pN0 disease (BCSS 82.3% versus 91.9%, p<0.001 and OS 68.1% versus 75.7%, p<0.001). BCSS and OS with pNmic disease progressively declined with increasing number of positive nodes and increasing LNR. OS with pNmic was similar to pNmac disease when matched by the number of positive nodes and by the LNR. Both pN-based and LNR-based classifications were significantly prognostic of BCSS and OS on Cox regression multivariate analysis. Nodal micrometastasis is associated with poorer survival compared to pN0 disease. Mortality hazards with nodal micrometastasis increased with increasing number of positive nodes and increasing LNR. The number of positive nodes and the LNR should be considered in risk estimates for patients with nodal micrometastatic breast cancer.

  6. Pretreatment direct bilirubin and total cholesterol are significant predictors of overall survival in advanced non-small-cell lung cancer patients with EGFR mutations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yanwei; Xu, Jianlin; Lou, Yuqing; Hu, Song; Yu, Keke; Li, Rong; Zhang, Xueyan; Jin, Bo; Han, Baohui

    2017-04-01

    This study was designed to examine the prediction of pretreatment circulating bilirubin and cholesterol for overall survival in 459 advanced non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients with epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations. Circulating total bilirubin, direct bilirubin (DB), total cholesterol (TC), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C) and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) levels were measured at baseline. The mean age (standard deviation) of all study patients was 58.7 (10.5) years, and 42.9% of them was males. Ever smokers accounted for 27.0% and lung adenocarcinoma for 90.4%. The median follow-up time and survival time were 29.5 and 34.9 months, respectively. Patients with higher DB had a 1.68-fold increased risk of death compared with patients with lower DB (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.68, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.22-2.30, p = 0.001), while patients with higher TC were at a 63% reduced risk of death compared with patients with lower TC (HR = 0.37, 95% CI: 0.20-0.67, p = 0.001). As for HDL-C, patients with higher levels had the risk of death reduced by 46% (HR = 0.54, 95% CI: 0.29-1.00, p = 0.049) compared with patients with lower levels. After the Bonferroni correction, only DB and TC were significantly associated with NSCLC survival. Our findings demonstrate for the first time that pretreatment DB was identified as a significant risk factor, yet TC as a protective factor, for overall survival in NSCLC patients with EGFR mutations. © 2016 UICC.

  7. Effect of mitochondrially targeted carboxy proxyl nitroxide on Akt-mediated survival in Daudi cells: Significance of a dual mode of action.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gokul Variar

    Full Text Available Vicious cycles of mutations and reactive oxygen species (ROS generation contribute to cancer progression. The use of antioxidants to inhibit ROS generation promotes cytostasis by affecting the mutation cycle and ROS-dependent survival signaling. However, cancer cells select mutations to elevate ROS albeit maintaining mitochondrial hyperpolarization (Δψm, even under hypoxia. From this perspective, the use of drugs that disrupt both ROS generation and Δψm is a viable anticancer strategy. Hence, we studied the effects of mitochondrially targeted carboxy proxyl nitroxide (Mito-CP and a control ten carbon TPP moiety (Dec-TPP+ in the human Burkitt lymphoma cell line (Daudi and normal peripheral blood mononuclear cells under hypoxia and normoxia. We found preferential localization, Δψm and adenosine triphosphate loss, and significant cytotoxicity by Mito-CP in Daudi cells alone. Interestingly, ROS levels were decreased and maintained in hypoxic and normoxic cancer cells, respectively, by Mito-CP but not Dec-TPP+, therefore preventing any adaptive signaling. Moreover, dual effects on mitochondrial bioenergetics and ROS by Mito-CP curtailed the cancer survival via Akt inhibition, AMPK-HIF-1α activation and promoted apoptosis via increased BCL2-associated X protein and poly (ADP-ribose polymerase expression. This dual mode of action by Mito-CP provides a better explanation of the application of antioxidants with specific relevance to cancerous transformation and adaptations in the Daudi cell line.

  8. The metastatic infiltration at the metastasis/brain parenchyma-interface is very heterogeneous and has a significant impact on survival in a prospective study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siam, Laila; Bleckmann, Annalen; Chaung, Han-Ning; Mohr, Alexander; Klemm, Florian; Barrantes-Freer, Alonso; Blazquez, Raquel; Wolff, Hendrik A.; Lüke, Florian; Rohde, Veit; Stadelmann, Christine; Pukrop, Tobias

    2015-01-01

    The current approach to brain metastases resection is macroscopic removal of metastasis until reaching the glial pseudo-capsule (gross total resection (GTR)). However, autopsy studies demonstrated infiltrating metastatic cells into the parenchyma at the metastasis/brain parenchyma (M/BP)-interface. Aims/Methods: To analyze the astrocyte reaction and metastatic infiltration pattern at the M/BP-interface with an organotypic brain slice coculture system. Secondly, to evaluate the significance of infiltrating metastatic tumor cells in a prospective biopsy study. Therefore, after GTR, biopsies were obtained from the brain parenchyma beyond the glial pseudo-capsule and analyzed histomorphologically. Results: The coculture revealed three types of cancer cell infiltration. Interestingly, the astrocyte reaction was significantly different in the coculture with a benign, neuroectodermal-derived cell line. In the prospective biopsy study 58/167 (34.7%) samples revealed infiltrating metastatic cells. Altogether, 25/39 patients (64.1%) had proven to exhibit infiltration in at least one biopsy specimen with significant impact on survival (OS) (3.4 HR; p = 0.009; 2-year OS was 6.6% versus 43.5%). Exceptionally, in the non-infiltrating cohort three patients were long-term survivors. Conclusions: Metastatic infiltration has a significant impact on prognosis. Secondly, the astrocyte reaction at the M/BP-interface is heterogeneous and supports our previous concept of the organ-specific defense against metastatic (organ-foreign) cells. PMID:26299612

  9. Personalized axillary dissection: the number of excised lymph nodes of nodal-positive breast cancer patients has no significant impact on relapse-free and overall survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebner, Florian; Wöckel, Achim; Janni, Wolfgang; Kreienberg, Rolf; Schwentner, Lukas; Wischnewsky, Manfred

    2017-04-24

    Sentinel lymph node (SLN) biopsy has replaced axillary lymph node dissection (ALND) for the staging of clinically node-negative breast cancer patients (BCP), demonstrating equivalent survival to ALND while resulting in reduced morbidity. ALND has remained the standard of care for the majority of BCP with clinical axillary metastases or metastases found on SLN biopsy. More recently, it is debated whether ALND could be avoided not only in SLN-negative BCP but also in selected SLN-positive disease or even in all patients. This analysis of pN+ BCP shows the impact of the number of excised lymph nodes on RFS and OAS adjusted by age, tumor size, intrinsic subtypes and adjuvant systemic therapy. In this retrospective, multicenter cohort study, we investigated data from 2992 pN+ primary BCP recruited from 17 participating certified breast cancer centers in Germany between 2001 and 2008 within the BRENDA study group. The median number of excised lymph nodes was 17. The number of excised lymph nodes was neither significant for RFS (p = 0.085) nor for OAS (p = 0.285). Adjustments were made for age, tumor size and intrinsic subtypes. The most important significant parameters for RFS were intrinsic subtypes (p < 0.001) and tumor size (p < 0.001) and for OAS age (p < 0.001) and intrinsic subtypes (p < 0.001). There were no significant differences in RFS and OAS in any subgroup stratified by the number of excised lymph nodes. Only for T3/T4 tumors, there is a very small significant advantage of ALND for RFS but not for OAS. After adjusting in addition by guideline adherence of adjuvant systemic therapy (AST), intrinsic subtypes and guideline-adherent AST are the most important significant (p < 0.001) parameters for RFS and OAS. The number of excised lymph nodes of pN+ BCP neither correlates with RFS nor with OAS. Survival of pN+ BCP is primarily determined by the biology and the guideline-adherent AST based on the corresponding intrinsic subtypes. These results

  10. Classification of beach response to extreme storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burvingt, Olivier; Masselink, Gerd; Russell, Paul; Scott, Tim

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storms are responsible for rapid changes to coastlines worldwide. During the 2013/14 winter, the west coast of Europe experienced a sequence of large, storm-induced wave events, representing the most energetic period of waves in the last 60 years. The southwest coast of England underwent significant geomorphological change during that period, but exhibited a range of spatially variable and complex morphological responses, despite being subjected to the same storm sequence. Here, we use the 2013/14 storm response along the southwest coast of England as a natural field laboratory and explain this variability in storm response through the introduction and evaluation of a new classification of how sandy and gravel beaches respond to extreme storms. Cluster analysis was conducted using an unique data set of pre- and post-storm airborne Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data from 157 beach sites based on the net volumetric change (dQnet) and a novel parameter, the longshore variation index (LVI) which quantifies the alongshore morphological variability in beach response. Four main beach response types were identified: (1) fully exposed beaches that experienced large and alongshore uniform sediment losses (dQnet ≈ 100 m3·m- 1); (2) semi-exposed beaches that experienced medium alongshore uniform sediment losses (dQnet ≈ 50 m3·m- 1); (3) sheltered short beaches that experienced limited net sediment change and alongshore variability in beach response; and (4) sheltered long beaches that experienced considerable alongshore variability in beach response and large gross sediment change, but limited net sediment change. The key factors in determining the type of beach response are: exposure to the storm waves, angle of storm wave approach and the degree to which the beach is embayed. These factors are universally applicable on many exposed coastlines worldwide, so the response classification presented here is expected to be widely applicable.

  11. Storm Data Publication

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — 'Storm Data and Unusual Weather Phenomena' is a monthly publication containing a chronological listing, by state, of hurricanes, tornadoes, thunderstorms, hail,...

  12. Storm surge climatology report

    OpenAIRE

    Horsburgh, Kevin; Williams, Joanne; Cussack, Caroline

    2017-01-01

    Any increase in flood frequency or severity due to sea level rise or changes in storminess would adversely impact society. It is crucial to understand the physical drivers of extreme storm surges to have confidence in the datasets used for extreme sea level statistics. We will refine and improve methods to the estimation of extreme sea levels around Europe and more widely. We will do so by developing a comprehensive world picture of storm surge distribution (including extremes) for both tropi...

  13. Impacts of episodic storms on coastal wetland processes in the Northeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rahman, F.; Watson, E.; Oczkowski, A. J.; Raper, K.; Gray, A. B.; Wigand, C.; Velinsky, D.

    2016-12-01

    Climate model simulations corresponding to IPCC emissions scenarios suggest that by 2100, increases in precipitation intensity, the number of heavy precipitation events, and the intensity of the wettest events are all expected to increase, while concurrently, one to three month droughts could occur as frequently as once per summer in the U.S. Northeast. Here, we report on a combination of field and mescosm experiments where we examined impacts of changing precipitation patterns on coastal wetland nitrogen retention and sediment deposition. We found that more even precipitation promoted higher rates of wetland nitrate retention than larger episodic events, suggesting that changing precipitation patterns are altering how coastal wetlands incept, retain, and transform nitrogen. In contrast with nitrogen retention, which is promoted by even precipitation receipt, event-based monitoring of sediment deposition suggests that episodic storms account for much of the sediment deposited in coastal wetlands. In fact, we found that tides only flooded the upper marsh to significant depths (>15cm) during storms. Using empirical data to parameterize a process-based marsh elevation simulation model, we found that increased storm frequency will likely increase the probability of marsh survival with sea level rise significantly, while increases in storm intensity will likely have negligible effects. Jointly, these results suggest that changes in storminess will significantly impact coastal wetland function and persistence.

  14. Adaptive Significance of Quorum Sensing-dependent Regulation of Rhamnolipids by Integration of Growth Rate in Burkholderia glumae: A Trade-off between Survival and Efficiency

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arvin Nickzad

    2016-08-01

    swarming motility, thus promoting the chances of survival, even if the cell density might not be high enough for an otherwise efficient production of rhamnolipids. In conclusion, we propose that the adaptive significance of growth rate-dependent functionality of QS in biosynthesis of costly public goods lies within providing a regulatory mechanism for selecting the optimal trade-off between survival and efficiency.

  15. Predicting Vertical Motion within Convective Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    van den Heever, S. C.

    2016-12-01

    Convective storms are both beneficial in the fresh water they supply and destructive in the life-threatening extreme weather they produce. They are found throughout the tropics and midlatitudes, vary in structure from isolated to highly organized systems, and are the sole source of precipitation in many regions of Earth. Convective updrafts and downdrafts plays a crucial role in cloud and precipitation formation, latent heating, water vapor transport, storm organization, and large-scale atmospheric circulations such as the Hadley and Walker cells. These processes, in turn, impact the strength and longevity of updrafts and downdrafts through complex, non-linear feedbacks. In spite of the significant influence of convective updrafts and downdrafts on the weather and climate system, accurately predicting vertical motion using numerical models remains challenging. In high-resolution cloud-resolving models where vertical motion is normally resolved, significant biases exist in the predicted profiles of updraft and downdraft velocities, at least for the limited cases where observational data have been available for model evaluation. It has been suggested that feedbacks between the vertical motion and microphysical processes may be one cause of these discrepancies, however, our understanding of these feedbacks remains limited. In this talk, the results of a small field campaign conducted over northeastern Colorado designed to observe storm vertical motion and cold pool characteristics within isolated and organized deep convective storms will be described. High frequency radiosonde, radar and drone measurements of a developing through mature supercell storm updraft and cold pool will be presented and compared with RAMS simulations of the same supercell storm. An analysis of the feedbacks between the storm dynamical and microphysical processes will be presented, and implications for regional and global modeling of severe storms will be discussed.

  16. Dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Carnacina, Iacopo; Donatelli, Carmine; Ganju, Neil Kamal; Plater, Andrew James; Schuerch, Mark; Temmerman, Stijn

    2018-01-01

    This manuscript reviews the progresses made in the understanding of the dynamic interactions between coastal storms and salt marshes, including the dissipation of extreme water levels and wind waves across marsh surfaces, the geomorphic impact of storms on salt marshes, the preservation of hurricanes signals and deposits into the sedimentary records, and the importance of storms for the long term survival of salt marshes to sea level rise. A review of weaknesses, and strengths of coastal defences incorporating the use of salt marshes including natural, and hybrid infrastructures in comparison to standard built solutions is then presented. Salt marshes are effective in dissipating wave energy, and storm surges, especially when the marsh is highly elevated, and continuous. This buffering action reduces for storms lasting more than one day. Storm surge attenuation rates range from 1.7 to 25 cm/km depending on marsh and storms characteristics. In terms of vegetation properties, the more flexible stems tend to flatten during powerful storms, and to dissipate less energy but they are also more resilient to structural damage, and their flattening helps to protect the marsh surface from erosion, while stiff plants tend to break, and could increase the turbulence level and the scour. From a morphological point of view, salt marshes are generally able to withstand violent storms without collapsing, and violent storms are responsible for only a small portion of the long term marsh erosion. Our considerations highlight the necessity to focus on the indirect long term impact that large storms exerts on the whole marsh complex rather than on sole after-storm periods. The morphological consequences of storms, even if not dramatic, might in fact influence the response of the system to normal weather conditions during following inter-storm periods. For instance, storms can cause tidal flats deepening which in turn promotes wave energy propagation, and exerts a long term detrimental

  17. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 1-year storm in Orange County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  18. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 100-year storm in Los Angeles County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  19. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in Los Angeles County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  20. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 1-year storm in Los Angeles County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  1. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in Santa Barbara County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  2. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 1-year storm in Ventura County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  3. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in Ventura County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  4. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in Orange County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  5. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 1-year storm in San Diego County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  6. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 100-year storm in San Diego County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  7. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: 20-year storm in San Diego County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  8. Storms and plankton: the forgotten link

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, F.

    2009-09-01

    The physico-chemical fields of the pelagic environment are constantly fluctuating at different spatial and temporal scales. Storms are extreme events of such fluctuations that cascade down to small scales to alter nutrient availability to microscopic algae or swimming and mating behaviour of motile plankton. In coastal ecosystems, storms represent dissolved nutrient injections via run-off and resuspension that trigger planktonic succession events. Storms may also have a role in the development and/or mitigation of harmful algal blooms, events with health consequences that are of growing societal concern. Mediterranean storms are also responsible for the transport of micro and macronutrients from Saharan origin. The effects of the deposition of such nutrients over the ocean may range from small to significant depending on the local conditions. Overall, albeit it is hard to envision catastrophic consequences, storms affect, directly or indirectly, the dynamics of plankton and hence ecosystem production. The full potential of such relationships will be evidenced once biological time series match the resolution and spatial coverage of meteorological and oceanic data. As the frequency and intensity of storms is subject to global change, future oceanic ecosystem production and diversity scenarios will be affected as well.

  9. Chemotherapy Significantly Improves Survival for Patients with T1c-T2N0M0 Medullary Breast Cancer: 3739 Cases From the National Cancer Data Base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mateo, Alina M; Pezzi, Todd A; Sundermeyer, Mark; Kelley, Cynthia A; Klimberg, V Suzanne; Pezzi, Christopher M

    2017-04-01

    Medullary breast cancer (MBC) is a rare tumor associated with a better prognosis compared with other breast cancers. The role of adjuvant chemotherapy has not been extensively studied. Female patients with invasive MBC reported to the National Cancer Data Base from 2004 to 2012 were analyzed. Overall survival (OS) and treatment were studied using the Kaplan-Meier method and the Cox proportional hazard model. Patients who had node-negative (N0), non-metastatic (M0) tumors 10 to 50 mm in size (T1cN0M0 and T2N0M0) treated with and without chemotherapy were analyzed using propensity score matching. Of 3739 patients with MBC, 2642 (71%) had T1b-T2N0M0 disease treated with and without chemotherapy. Multivariable analysis showed that for all MBC patients, the significant predictors of OS were age older than 65 years, one or more comorbidities, tumor larger than 2 cm, positive nodes, distant metastasis, and treatment with chemotherapy or radiation therapy. Patients with T1cN0M0 and T2N0M0 had improved OS if they received chemotherapy (p < 0.0005). Patients with T1bN0M0 who received chemotherapy did not show better OS than those who did not. Patients with T1c-T2N0M0 were then matched by propensity score based on age, presence of comorbidities, tumor size, and treatment methods used. After matching, the group receiving chemotherapy showed an improved OS (hazard ratio [HR], 0.40; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.26-0.62; p < 0.0005) compared to the group that did not receive chemotherapy. For patients with T1c-T2N0M0 MBC, chemotherapy significantly improves OS.

  10. Dust Storms: Why Are Dust Storms a Concern?

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Shed Sheep Ranching Shellfishing Shipping Shipyard Storms and Floods Stormwater and Sewage Trash Burning Tree Farm and ... attacks. Exposure to dust in dust storms can cause coughing, wheezing, and runny noses. Breathing a lot ...

  11. Growth modelling indicates hurricanes and severe storms are linked to low coral recruitment in the Caribbean.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crabbe, M James C; Martinez, Edwin; Garcia, Christina; Chub, Juan; Castro, Leonardo; Guy, Jason

    2008-05-01

    This study set out to test the hypothesis that hurricanes and tropical storms limit the recruitment and subsequent survival of massive non-branching corals on the barrier reef off the coast of Belize in the Gulf of Honduras. Overall, the surface areas of 523 individual coral specimens were measured, and recruitment dates were then modelled. There was no significant difference in coral cover or coral biodiversity between any of the sites studied (p > 0.1). There were significant differences in non-branching coral recruitment in years when hurricanes impacted the area (p Mesoamerican barrier reef and on patch reefs near the Belize coast in the Caribbean, and suggests that marine park managers may need to assist coral recruitment in years where there are hurricanes or severe storms.

  12. Storm and cloud dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Cotton, William R

    1992-01-01

    This book focuses on the dynamics of clouds and of precipitating mesoscale meteorological systems. Clouds and precipitating mesoscale systems represent some of the most important and scientifically exciting weather systems in the world. These are the systems that produce torrential rains, severe winds including downburst and tornadoes, hail, thunder and lightning, and major snow storms. Forecasting such storms represents a major challenge since they are too small to be adequately resolved by conventional observing networks and numerical prediction models.Key Features* Key Highlight

  13. Electrical storm: A clinical and electrophysiological overview.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conti, Sergio; Pala, Salvatore; Biagioli, Viviana; Del Giorno, Giuseppe; Zucchetti, Martina; Russo, Eleonora; Marino, Vittoria; Dello Russo, Antonio; Casella, Michela; Pizzamiglio, Francesca; Catto, Valentina; Tondo, Claudio; Carbucicchio, Corrado

    2015-09-26

    Electrical storm (ES) is a clinical condition characterized by three or more ventricular arrhythmia episodes leading to appropriate implantable cardioverter-defibrillator (ICD) therapies in a 24 h period. Mostly, arrhythmias responsible of ES are multiple morphologies of monomorphic ventricular tachycardia (VT), but polymorphic VT and ventricular fibrillation can also result in ES. Clinical presentation is very dramatic in most cases, strictly related to the cardiac disease that may worsen electrical and hemodynamic decompensation. Therefore ES management is challenging in the majority of cases and a high mortality is the rule both in the acute and in the long-term phases. Different underlying cardiomyopathies provide significant clues into the mechanism of ES, which can arise in the setting of structural arrhythmogenic cardiomyopathies or rarely in patients with inherited arrhythmic syndrome, impacting on pharmacological treatment, on ICD programming, and on the opportunity to apply strategies of catheter ablation. This latter has become a pivotal form of treatment due to its high efficacy in modifying the arrhythmogenic substrate and in achieving rhythm stability, aiming at reducing recurrences of ventricular arrhythmia and at improving overall survival. In this review, the most relevant epidemiological and clinical aspects of ES, with regard to the acute and long-term follow-up implications, were evaluated, focusing on these novel therapeutic strategies of treatment.

  14. California's Perfect Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bacon, David

    2010-01-01

    The United States today faces an economic crisis worse than any since the Great Depression of the 1930s. Nowhere is it sharper than in the nation's schools. Last year, California saw a perfect storm of protest in virtually every part of its education system. K-12 teachers built coalitions with parents and students to fight for their jobs and their…

  15. Dave Storm esitleb singlit

    Index Scriptorium Estoniae

    2002-01-01

    7. märtsil klubis Spirit ja 8. märtsil klubis Terminal presenteerib tallinlane DJ Dave Storm oma uut singlit "Ride", millel teeb laulmisega kaasa ameeriklane Charlie C. Singelplaadi annab peadselt välja Inglise plaadifirma Refunkt

  16. Prognostic significance of K-ras and TP53 mutations in the role of adjuvant chemotherapy on survival in patients with Dukes C colon cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bleeker, W A; Hayes, V M; Karrenbeld, A; Hofstra, R M; Verlind, E; Hermans, J; Poppema, S; Buys, C H; Plukker, J T

    PURPOSE: Mutations in K-ras and TP53 genes are common in colorectal cancer. They affect biologic behavior and might influence chemotherapy susceptibility in these tumors. We investigated whether the survival of patients with Dukes C colon cancer treated with adjuvant chemotherapy is influenced by

  17. Large-scale coastal impact induced by a catastrophic storm

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Fruergaard, Mikkel; Andersen, Thorbjørn Joest; Johannessen, Peter N

    breaching. Our results demonstrate that violent, millennial-scale storms can trigger significant large-scale and long-term changes on barrier coasts, and that coastal changes assumed to take place over centuries or even millennia may occur in association with a single extreme storm event....

  18. Thyrotoxicosis and Choledocholithiasis Masquerading as Thyroid Storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian L. Horn

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available A 26-year-old female, thirteen months postpartum, presented to the emergency department for four weeks of epigastric abdominal pain, pruritus, new onset jaundice, and 11.3 kgs (25 lbs unintentional weight loss. On examination, she was afebrile, tachycardic, alert, and oriented and had jaundice with scleral icterus. Labs were significant for undetectable TSH, FT4 that was too high to measure, and elevated total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, alkaline phosphatase, and transaminases. Abdominal ultrasound revealed cholelithiasis without biliary ductal dilation. Treatment for presumed thyroid storm was initiated. Further work-up with magnetic resonance cholangiopancreatography (MRCP revealed an obstructing cholelith within the distal common bile duct. With the presence of choledocholithiasis explaining the jaundice and abdominal pain, plus the absence of CNS alterations, the diagnosis of thyroid storm was revised to thyrotoxicosis complicated by choledocholithiasis. Endoscopic retrograde cholangiopancreatogram (ERCP with sphincterotomy was performed to alleviate the biliary obstruction, with prompt symptomatic improvement. Thyroid storm is a rare manifestation of hyperthyroidism with a high rate of morbidity and mortality. The diagnosis of thyroid storm is based on clinical examination, and abnormal thyroid function tests do not correlate with disease severity. Knowledge of the many manifestations of thyroid storm will facilitate a quick and accurate diagnosis and treatment.

  19. Mathematical modeling of tornadoes and squall storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Arsen’yev

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available Recent advances in modeling of tornadoes and twisters consist of significant achievements in mathematical calculation of occurrence and evolution of a violent F5-class tornado on the Fujita scale, and four-dimensional mathematical modeling of a tornado with the fourth coordinate time multiplied by its characteristic velocity. Such a tornado can arise in a thunderstorm supercell filled with turbulent whirlwinds. A theory of the squall storms is proposed. The squall storm is modeled by running perturbation of the temperature inversion on the lower boundary of cloudiness. This perturbation is induced by the action of strong, hurricane winds in the upper and middle troposphere, and looks like a running solitary wave (soliton; which is developed also in a field of pressure and velocity of a wind. If a soliton of a squall storm gets into the thunderstorm supercell then this soliton is captured by supercell. It leads to additional pressure fall of air inside a storm supercell and stimulate amplification of wind velocity here. As a result, a cyclostrophic balance inside a storm supercell generates a tornado. Comparison of the radial distribution of wind velocity inside a tornado calculated by using the new formulas and equations with radar observations of the wind velocity inside Texas Tornado Dummit in 1995 and inside the 3 May 1999 Oklahoma City Tornado shows good correspondence.

  20. Leonid storm research

    CERN Document Server

    Rietmeijer, Frans; Brosch, Noah; Fonda, Mark

    2000-01-01

    This book will appeal to all researchers that have an interest in the current Leonid showers It contains over forty research papers that present some of the first observational results of the November 1999 Leonid meteor storm, the first storm observed by modern observing techniques The book is a first glimpse of the large amount of information obtained during NASA's Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign and groundbased campaigns throughout the world It provides an excellent overview on the state of meteor shower research for any professional researcher or amateur meteor observer interested in studies of meteors and meteoroids and their relation to comets, the origin of life on Earth, the satellite impact hazard issue, and upper atmosphere studies of neutral atom chemistry, the formation of meteoric debris, persistent trains, airglow, noctilucent clouds, sprites and elves

  1. Tormenta tiroidea Thyroid storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lisette Leal Curí

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available La tormenta tiroidea es una de las situaciones más críticas entre las emergencias endocrinas y tiene una significativa mortalidad. La etiología más común de tirotoxicosis es la enfermedad de Graves y el factor precipitante que predomina es la infección. Clínicamente se caracteriza por la disfunción de varios sistemas (termorregulador, nervioso central, gastrointestinal y cardiovascular, con niveles de hormonas tiroideas libres o totales por encima de los valores normales. El tratamiento debe tener un enfoque multidisciplinario, e incluye medidas de soporte en unidades de cuidados intensivos, normalización de la temperatura corporal, reducción de la producción y liberación de hormonas tiroideas, con antitiroideos de síntesis y yodo respectivamente, bloqueo de los efectos periféricos mediante la administración de beta-bloqueadores, y corrección del factor desencadenante. Una vez que el paciente se encuentra estable es necesario planificar una terapia definitiva que impida la recurrencia futura de la crisis tirotóxica.The thyroid storm is one of the most critical situations in the endocrine emergencies and exhibits a significant mortality rate. The most common etiology of thyrotoxicosis is Graves' disease and the predominant precipitating factor is infection. The clinical characteristics are dysfunction of several systems (heat-regulator, central nervous, gastrointestinal and cardiovascular, and levels of total or free thyroid hormones that exceed the normal values. The treatment must be multidisciplinary and include support measures in intensive care units, normalization of body temperature, reduction of the production and the release of thyroid hormones by using synthesis and iodine anti-thyroid products respectively, blockade of the peripheral effects through administration of Beta-blockers and correction of the unleashing factor. Once the patients are stabilized, it is necessary to plan the final therapy that will prevent the

  2. Adaptive mesh refinement for storm surge

    KAUST Repository

    Mandli, Kyle T.

    2014-03-01

    An approach to utilizing adaptive mesh refinement algorithms for storm surge modeling is proposed. Currently numerical models exist that can resolve the details of coastal regions but are often too costly to be run in an ensemble forecasting framework without significant computing resources. The application of adaptive mesh refinement algorithms substantially lowers the computational cost of a storm surge model run while retaining much of the desired coastal resolution. The approach presented is implemented in the GeoClaw framework and compared to ADCIRC for Hurricane Ike along with observed tide gauge data and the computational cost of each model run. © 2014 Elsevier Ltd.

  3. Optimal antiarrhythmic drug therapy for electrical storm

    OpenAIRE

    Sorajja, Dan; Munger, Thomas M.; Shen, Win-Kuang

    2015-01-01

    Abstract Electrical storm, defined as 3 or more separate episodes of ventricular tachycardia or ventricular fibrillation within 24?hours, carries significant morbidity and mortality. These unstable ventricular arrhythmias have been described with a variety of conditions including ischemic heart disease, structural heart disease, and genetic conditions. While implantable cardioverter defibrillator implantation and ablation may be indicated and required, antiarrhythmic medication remains an imp...

  4. Research on the impacts of past and future hurricanes on the endangered Florida manatee: Chapter 6J in Science and the storms-the USGS response to the hurricanes of 2005

    Science.gov (United States)

    Langtimm, Catherine A.; Krohn, M. Dennis; Stith, Bradley M.; Reid, James P.; Beck, C.A.; Butler, Susan M.

    2007-01-01

    U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) research on Florida manatees (Trichechus manatus latirostris) from 1982 through 1998 identified lower apparent survival rates for adult manatees during years when Hurricane Elena (1985), the March "Storm of the Century"(1993), and Hurricane Opal (1995) hit the northern coast of the Gulf of Mexico. Although our analysis showed that a significant number of our monitored individual manatees failed to return to their winter homes after these storms, their actual fate remains unknown. With the aid of new satellite technology to track manatees during storms and new statistical techniques to determine survival and emigration rates, researchers are working to understand how hurricanes impact the endangered species by studying manatees caught in the path of the destructive hurricanes of 2004 and 2005.

  5. Storm surge and tidal range energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lewis, Matthew; Angeloudis, Athanasios; Robins, Peter; Evans, Paul; Neill, Simon

    2017-04-01

    The need to reduce carbon-based energy sources whilst increasing renewable energy forms has led to concerns of intermittency within a national electricity supply strategy. The regular rise and fall of the tide makes prediction almost entirely deterministic compared to other stochastic renewable energy forms; therefore, tidal range energy is often stated as a predictable and firm renewable energy source. Storm surge is the term used for the non-astronomical forcing of tidal elevation, and is synonymous with coastal flooding because positive storm surges can elevate water-levels above the height of coastal flood defences. We hypothesis storm surges will affect the reliability of the tidal range energy resource; with negative surge events reducing the tidal range, and conversely, positive surge events increasing the available resource. Moreover, tide-surge interaction, which results in positive storm surges more likely to occur on a flooding tide, will reduce the annual tidal range energy resource estimate. Water-level data (2000-2012) at nine UK tide gauges, where the mean tidal amplitude is above 2.5m and thus suitable for tidal-range energy development (e.g. Bristol Channel), were used to predict tidal range power with a 0D modelling approach. Storm surge affected the annual resource estimate by between -5% to +3%, due to inter-annual variability. Instantaneous power output were significantly affected (Normalised Root Mean Squared Error: 3%-8%, Scatter Index: 15%-41%) with spatial variability and variability due to operational strategy. We therefore find a storm surge affects the theoretical reliability of tidal range power, such that a prediction system may be required for any future electricity generation scenario that includes large amounts of tidal-range energy; however, annual resource estimation from astronomical tides alone appears sufficient for resource estimation. Future work should investigate water-level uncertainties on the reliability and

  6. Rare extragonadal teratomas in children: complete tumor excision as a reliable and essential procedure for significant survival. Clinical experience and review of the literature.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paradies, Guglielmo; Zullino, Francesca; Orofino, Antonio; Leggio, Samuele

    2014-01-01

    Extragonadal teratomas are rare tumors in neonates and infants and can sometimes show unusual, distinctive feature such as an unusual location, a clinical sometimes acute, presentation and a "fetiform" histotype of the lesion. We have extrapolated, from our entire experience of teratomas, 4 unusual cases, mostly operated as emergencies; 2 of them were treated just after birth. Aim of this paper is to report the clinical and pathological findings, to evaluate the surgical approach and the long-term biological behaviour in these cases, in the light of survival and current insights reported in the literature. The Authors reviewed the most significant (Tables I and II) clinical, laboratory, radiologic, and pathologic findings, surgical procedures, early and long-term results in 4 children, 1 male and 3 females (M/F ratio: 1/3), suffering from extragonadal teratomas, located in the temporo-zygomatic region of the head (Case n. 1, Fig. 1), retroperitoneal space (Case n. 2, Fig. 2) ,liver (Case n. 3, Figg. 3-5), kidney (Case n. 4, Fig. 6, 7), respectively. Of the 4 patients, 2 were treated neonatally (1 T. of the head, 1 retroperitoneal T.) A prenatal diagnosis had already been made in 2 of the 4 patients, between the 2nd and 3rd trimester of pregnancy, All the infants were born by scheduled caesarean section in a tertiary care hospital and were the immediately referred to thew N.I.C.Us. Because of a mostly acute clinical presentation, the 4 patients were then referred to the surgical unit at different ages: 7 days, 28 days, 7 months, and 4 years respectively. The initial clinical presentation (Table II) was consistent with the site of the mass and/or its side effects. The 2 newborns (Case 1 and 2) both with a prenatally diagnosed mass located at the temporozygomatic region and in the abdominal cavite respectively, already displayed, at birth a mass with a tendency to further growth. The symptoms and signs described to the primary care physician by the parents of the 2

  7. Lightning location relative to storm structure in a supercell storm and a multicell storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Peter S.; Macgorman, Donald R.; Rust, W. David; Taylor, William L.; Rasmussen, Lisa Walters

    1987-01-01

    Relationships between lightning location and storm structure are examined for one radar volume scan in each of two mature, severe storms. One of these storms had characteristics of a supercell storm, and the other was a multicell storm. Data were analyzed from dual-Doppler radar and dual-VHF lightning-mapping systems. The distributions of VHF impulse sources were compared with radar reflectivity, vertical air velocity, and their respective gradients. In the supercell storm, lightning tended to occur along streamlines above and down-shear of the updraft and reflectivity cores; VHF impulse sources were most concentrated in reflectivities between 30 and 40 dBZ and were distributed uniformly with respect to updraft speed. In the multicell storm, on the other hand, lightning tended to coincide with the vertical reflectivity and updraft core and with the diverging streamlines near the top of the storm. The results suggest that the location of lightning in these severe storms were most directly associated with the wind field structure relative to updraft and reflectivity cores. Since the magnitude and vertical shear of the environmental wind are fundamental in determining the reflectivity and wind field structure of a storm, it is suggested that these environmental parameters are also fundamental in determining lightning location.

  8. Empirical STORM-E Model. [I. Theoretical and Observational Basis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mertens, Christopher J.; Xu, Xiaojing; Bilitza, Dieter; Mlynczak, Martin G.; Russell, James M., III

    2013-01-01

    Auroral nighttime infrared emission observed by the Sounding of the Atmosphere using Broadband Emission Radiometry (SABER) instrument onboard the Thermosphere-Ionosphere-Mesosphere Energetics and Dynamics (TIMED) satellite is used to develop an empirical model of geomagnetic storm enhancements to E-region peak electron densities. The empirical model is called STORM-E and will be incorporated into the 2012 release of the International Reference Ionosphere (IRI). The proxy for characterizing the E-region response to geomagnetic forcing is NO+(v) volume emission rates (VER) derived from the TIMED/SABER 4.3 lm channel limb radiance measurements. The storm-time response of the NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER is sensitive to auroral particle precipitation. A statistical database of storm-time to climatological quiet-time ratios of SABER-observed NO+(v) 4.3 lm VER are fit to widely available geomagnetic indices using the theoretical framework of linear impulse-response theory. The STORM-E model provides a dynamic storm-time correction factor to adjust a known quiescent E-region electron density peak concentration for geomagnetic enhancements due to auroral particle precipitation. Part II of this series describes the explicit development of the empirical storm-time correction factor for E-region peak electron densities, and shows comparisons of E-region electron densities between STORM-E predictions and incoherent scatter radar measurements. In this paper, Part I of the series, the efficacy of using SABER-derived NO+(v) VER as a proxy for the E-region response to solar-geomagnetic disturbances is presented. Furthermore, a detailed description of the algorithms and methodologies used to derive NO+(v) VER from SABER 4.3 lm limb emission measurements is given. Finally, an assessment of key uncertainties in retrieving NO+(v) VER is presented

  9. Storm surge variational assimilation model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-li HUANG

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available To eliminate errors caused by uncertainty of parameters and further improve capability of storm surge forecasting, the variational data assimilation method is applied to the storm surge model based on unstructured grid with high spatial resolution. The method can effectively improve the forecasting accuracy of storm surge induced by typhoon through controlling wind drag force coefficient parameter. The model is first theoretically validated with synthetic data. Then, the real storm surge process induced by the TC 0515 typhoon is forecasted by the variational data assimilation model, and results show the feasibility of practical application.

  10. The cascade from local to global dust storms on Mars: Temporal and spatial thresholds on thermal and dynamical feedback

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toigo, Anthony D.; Richardson, Mark I.; Wang, Huiqun; Guzewich, Scott D.; Newman, Claire E.

    2018-03-01

    We use the MarsWRF general circulation model to examine the temporal and spatial response of the atmosphere to idealized local and regional dust storm radiative heating. The ability of storms to modify the atmosphere away from the location of dust heating is a likely prerequisite for dynamical feedbacks that aid the growth of storms beyond the local scale, while the ability of storms to modify the atmosphere after the cessation of dust radiative heating is potentially important in preconditioning the atmosphere prior to large scale storms. Experiments were conducted over a range of static, prescribed storm sizes, durations, optical depth strengths, locations, and vertical extents of dust heating. Our results show that for typical sizes (order 105 km2) and durations (1-10 sols) of local dust storms, modification of the atmosphere is less than the typical variability of the unperturbed (storm-free) state. Even if imposed on regional storm length scales (order 106 km2), a 1-sol duration storm similarly does not significantly modify the background atmosphere. Only when imposed for 10 sols does a regional dust storm create a significant impact on the background atmosphere, allowing for the possibility of self-induced dynamical storm growth. These results suggest a prototype for how the subjective observational categorization of storms may be related to objective dynamical growth feedbacks that only become available to storms after they achieve a threshold size and duration, or if they grow into an atmosphere preconditioned by a prior large and sustained storm.

  11. Influence of storm characteristics on soil erosion and storm runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Johnny M. III Grace

    2008-01-01

    Unpaved forest roads can be major sources of sediment from forested watersheds. Storm runoff from forest roads are a concern due to their potential delivery of sediments and nutrients to stream systems resulting in degraded water quality. The volume and sediment concentrations of stormwater runoff emanating from forest roads can be greatly influenced by storm...

  12. Geomagnetic storm under laboratory conditions: randomized experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gurfinkel, Yu I.; Vasin, A. L.; Pishchalnikov, R. Yu; Sarimov, R. M.; Sasonko, M. L.; Matveeva, T. A.

    2017-10-01

    The influence of the previously recorded geomagnetic storm (GS) on human cardiovascular system and microcirculation has been studied under laboratory conditions. Healthy volunteers in lying position were exposed under two artificially created conditions: quiet (Q) and storm (S). The Q regime playbacks a noise-free magnetic field (MF) which is closed to the natural geomagnetic conditions on Moscow's latitude. The S regime playbacks the initially recorded 6-h geomagnetic storm which is repeated four times sequentially. The cardiovascular response to the GS impact was assessed by measuring capillary blood velocity (CBV) and blood pressure (BP) and by the analysis of the 24-h ECG recording. A storm-to-quiet ratio for the cardio intervals (CI) and the heart rate variability (HRV) was introduced in order to reveal the average over group significant differences of HRV. An individual sensitivity to the GS was estimated using the autocorrelation function analysis of the high-frequency (HF) part of the CI spectrum. The autocorrelation analysis allowed for detection a group of subjects of study which autocorrelation functions (ACF) react differently in the Q and S regimes of exposure.

  13. Adolescent Storm and Stress, Reconsidered.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnett, Jeffrey Jensen

    1999-01-01

    Explores G. Hall's (1904) view that adolescence is a period of heightened storm and stress in light of contemporary research, focusing on (1) conflict with parents; (2) mood disruptions; and (3) risk behavior. In all these areas, evidence supports a modified storm-and-stress view that takes into account individual differences and cultural…

  14. Differences in p53 status significantly influence the cellular response and cell survival to 1,25-dihydroxyvitamin D3-metformin cotreatment in colorectal cancer cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abu El Maaty, Mohamed A; Strassburger, Wendy; Qaiser, Tooba; Dabiri, Yasamin; Wölfl, Stefan

    2017-11-01

    Mutations in the tumor suppressor p53 are highly prevalent in cancers and are known to influence the sensitivity of cells to various chemotherapeutics including the anti-cancer candidates 1,25-dihydrovitamin D3 [1,25D3] and metformin. Previous studies have demonstrated additive/synergistic anti-cancer effects of the 1,25D3-metformin combination in different models, however, the influence of p53 status on the efficacy of this regimen has not been investigated. The CRC colorectal cancer (CRC) cell lines HCT116 wild-type (wt), HCT116 p53-/-, and HT-29 (mutant; R273H) were employed, covering three different p53 variations. Synergistic effects of the combination were confirmed in all cell lines using MTT assay. Detailed evaluation of the combination's effects was performed, including on-line measurements of cellular metabolism (glycolysis/respiration) using a biosensor chip system, analyses of mitochondrial activity (membrane potential and ATP/ROS production), mRNA expression analysis of WNT/β-catenin pathway players, and a comprehensive proteomic screen using immunoblotting and ELISA microarrays. AMPK signaling was found to be more strongly induced in response to all treatments in HCT116 wt cells compared to other cell lines, an observation that was coupled to a stronger accumulation of intracellular ROS in response to metformin/combination, and finally an induction in autophagy, depicted by an increase in LC3II:LC3I ratio in combination-treated cells compared to mono-treatments. An induction in apoptotic signaling was observed in the other cell lines in response to the combination, illustrated by a decrease in expression of pro-survival Bcl2 family members. P53 status impacts cellular responses to the combination but does not hamper its anti-proliferative synergy. © 2017 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  15. Assessment of storm forecast

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Cutululis, Nicolaos Antonio; Hahmann, Andrea N.; Huus Bjerge, Martin

    at analysing the ability of existing forecast tools to predict storms at the Horns Rev 2 wind farm. The focus will be on predicting the time where the wind turbine will need to shut down to protect itself, e.g. the time where wind speed exceeds 25 m/s. At the same time, the planned shut-down should cost...... as little lost wind energy as possible. Therefore, the planned shut down time should be as close as possible to the time where the wind turbine itself would shut down, but still reliable. The forecast systems available to ENERGINET.dk will be applied. The forecast tools ability of accurately predicting...... stopped, completely or partially, producing due to extreme wind speeds. Wind speed and power measurements from those events are presented and compared to the forecast available at Energinet.dk. The analysis looked at wind speed and wind power forecast. The main conclusion of the analysis is that the wind...

  16. Geomagnetic Storm Impact On GPS Code Positioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uray, Fırat; Varlık, Abdullah; Kalaycı, İbrahim; Öǧütcü, Sermet

    2017-04-01

    This paper deals with the geomagnetic storm impact on GPS code processing with using GIPSY/OASIS research software. 12 IGS stations in mid-latitude were chosen to conduct the experiment. These IGS stations were classified as non-cross correlation receiver reporting P1 and P2 (NONCC-P1P2), non-cross correlation receiver reporting C1 and P2 (NONCC-C1P2) and cross-correlation (CC-C1P2) receiver. In order to keep the code processing consistency between the classified receivers, only P2 code observations from the GPS satellites were processed. Four extreme geomagnetic storms October 2003, day of the year (DOY), 29, 30 Halloween Storm, November 2003, DOY 20, November 2004, DOY 08 and four geomagnetic quiet days in 2005 (DOY 92, 98, 99, 100) were chosen for this study. 24-hour rinex data of the IGS stations were processed epoch-by-epoch basis. In this way, receiver clock and Earth Centered Earth Fixed (ECEF) Cartesian Coordinates were solved for a per-epoch basis for each day. IGS combined broadcast ephemeris file (brdc) were used to partly compensate the ionospheric effect on the P2 code observations. There is no tropospheric model was used for the processing. Jet Propulsion Laboratory Application Technology Satellites (JPL ATS) computed coordinates of the stations were taken as true coordinates. The differences of the computed ECEF coordinates and assumed true coordinates were resolved to topocentric coordinates (north, east, up). Root mean square (RMS) errors for each component were calculated for each day. The results show that two-dimensional and vertical accuracy decreases significantly during the geomagnetic storm days comparing with the geomagnetic quiet days. It is observed that vertical accuracy is much more affected than the horizontal accuracy by geomagnetic storm. Up to 50 meters error in vertical component has been observed in geomagnetic storm day. It is also observed that performance of Klobuchar ionospheric correction parameters during geomagnetic storm

  17. ARkStorm: A West Coast Storm Scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cox, D. A.; Jones, L. M.; Ralph, F. M.; Dettinger, M. D.; Porter, K.; Perry, S. C.; Barnard, P. L.; Hoover, D.; Wills, C. J.; Stock, J. D.; Croyle, W.; Ferris, J. C.; Plumlee, G. S.; Alpers, C. N.; Miller, M.; Wein, A.; Rose, A.; Done, J.; Topping, K.

    2009-12-01

    The United Stated Geological Survey (USGS) Multi-Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) is preparing a new emergency-preparedness scenario, called ARkStorm, to address massive U.S. West Coast storms analogous to those that devastated California in 1861-62. Storms of this magnitude are projected to become more frequent and intense as a result of climate change. The MHDP has assembled experts from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), USGS, Scripps Institute of Oceanography, the State of California, California Geological Survey, the University of Colorado, the National Center for Atmospheric Research, and other organizations to design the large, but scientifically plausible, hypothetical scenario storm that would provide emergency responders, resource managers, and the public a realistic assessment of what is historically possible. The ARkStorm patterns the 1861 - 1862 historical events but uses modern modeling methods and data from large storms in 1969 and 1986. The ARkStorm draws heat and moisture from the tropical Pacific, forming Atmospheric Rivers (ARs) that grow in size, gain speed, and with a ferocity equal to hurricanes, slam into the U.S. West Coast for several weeks. Using sophisticated weather models and expert analysis, precipitation, snowlines, wind, and pressure data the modelers will characterize the resulting floods, landslides, and coastal erosion and inundation. These hazards will then be translated into the infrastructural, environmental, agricultural, social, and economic impacts. Consideration will be given to catastrophic disruptions to water supplies resulting from impacts on groundwater pumping, seawater intrusion, water supply degradation, and land subsidence. Possible climate-change forces that could exacerbate the problems will also be evaluated. In contrast to the recent U.S. East and Gulf Coast hurricanes, only recently have scientific and technological advances documented the ferocity and strength of possible future

  18. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 0.5 m: wave-hazard projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  19. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 0.0 m: wave-hazard projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  20. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 1.5 m: wave-hazard projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  1. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 2.0 m: wave-hazard projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  2. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 1 (100-year storm) sea-level rise 1.0 m: wave-hazard projections

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  3. Enhanced poleward propagation of storms under climate change

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamarin-Brodsky, Talia; Kaspi, Yohai

    2017-12-01

    Earth's midlatitudes are dominated by regions of large atmospheric weather variability—often referred to as storm tracks— which influence the distribution of temperature, precipitation and wind in the extratropics. Comprehensive climate models forced by increased greenhouse gas emissions suggest that under global warming the storm tracks shift poleward. While the poleward shift is a robust response across most models, there is currently no consensus on what the underlying dynamical mechanism is. Here we present a new perspective on the poleward shift, which is based on a Lagrangian view of the storm tracks. We show that in addition to a poleward shift in the genesis latitude of the storms, associated with the shift in baroclinicity, the latitudinal displacement of cyclonic storms increases under global warming. This is achieved by applying a storm-tracking algorithm to an ensemble of CMIP5 models. The increased latitudinal propagation in a warmer climate is shown to be a result of stronger upper-level winds and increased atmospheric water vapour. These changes in the propagation characteristics of the storms can have a significant impact on midlatitude climate.

  4. Multiparameter Investigation of Significant Lightning Producing Storms in Northeastern Colorado

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Gauthier, Michael

    1999-01-01

    We present a regional, summer season, climatology of cloud to ground (CG) lightning immediately east of the central Rocky mountains from 1996-98 using data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN...

  5. The 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak: Overview of the Tornadoes and their Parent Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knupp, Kevin R.; Coleman, Tim; Carey, Larry; Petersen, Walt

    2008-01-01

    The cold-season Tornado outbreak that occurred over the Southeast on 5-6 February 2008 was significant for the following reasons: about 84 tornadoes were documented over a 15 h period between late afternoon on 5 February and early morning on 6 February 2008; a wide variety of parent storms were associated with the tornadoes; a total of five EF-4 tornadoes occurred, with two forming over Alabama during the early morning hours prior to sunrise; there was a significant lull period between the initial convective and the early morning activity over Alabama 10 hours later; and, a wide spectrum of storm types, ranging from isolated supercell storms to QLCS bow echoes, accompanied the tornadoes. The goal of this paper is to provide a general description of the outbreak including the distribution of tornadoes and supercell storms over the region, a detailed map of the tornado tracks, time series of tornadoes and parent storms, and general characteristics of all parent tornado storms. The total number of major storms (duration greater than 3 h, at least three tornadoes produced) was seven. Several noteworthy storms are described: a long track (198 km long) tornado and its parent storm over Arkansas; a prolific supercell storm persisted for 7-8 hours and produced 16 tornadoes from north-central Mississippi to southern KY; and, bow echo storms (QLCS's) were simultaneous over KY and produced 16 tornadoes.

  6. Winter Storm Zones on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollingsworth, J. L.; Haberle, R. M.; Barnes, J. R.; Bridger, A. F. C.; Cuzzi, Jeffrey N. (Technical Monitor)

    1995-01-01

    Preferred regions of weather activity in Mars' winter middle latitudes-so called 'storm zones' are found in a general circulation model of Mars' atmospheric circulation. During northern winter, these storm zones occur in middle latitudes in the major planitia (low-relief regions) of the western and eastern hemisphere. In contrast, the highlands of the eastern hemisphere are mostly quiescent. Compared to Earth's storm zones where diabatic heating associated with land-sea thermal contrasts is crucial, orography on Mars is fundamental to the regionalization of weather activity. Future spacecraft missions aimed at assessing Mars' climate and its variability need to include such regions in observation strategies.

  7. Blood lactate levels differ significantly between surviving and nonsurviving patients within the same risk-adjusted Classification for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) group after pediatric cardiac surgery.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Molina Hazan, Vered; Gonen, Yael; Vardi, Amir; Keidan, Ilan; Mishali, David; Rubinshtein, Marina; Yakov, Yusim; Paret, Gideon

    2010-10-01

    This study aimed to examine the association between lactate levels in the first hours after surgery for congenital heart defects and the results of Risk-Adjusted Classification for Congenital Heart Surgery (RACHS-1) scoring and to evaluate serial lactate levels over time to determine whether they can serve as a supplementary tool for postoperative assessment within the same RACHS-1 group of patients. A retrospective cohort study was performed using data retrieved from a clinical database of 255 children who had surgery for congenital heart defects between 1999 and 2001 at Sheba Medical Center. Lactate levels were measured postoperatively four times (mg/dL units). The last sample was taken at the end of the surgical procedure, and lactate levels were measured at admission to the pediatrics critical care unit, then 6 and 12 h after admission. The lactate level was measured via arterial blood gases. A total of 27 deaths occurred, yielding a mortality rate of 7.4% when Norwood operations were excluded and 10.16% when they were included. The mean initial postoperative lactate level was significantly lower for survivors (42.2 ± 32.0 mg/dL) than for nonsurvivors (85.4 ± 54.1 mg/dL) (p 0.96 for all). The Pearson correlations between postoperative lactate levels (last lactate measurement taken in the operating room) and cardiopulmonary bypass (CPB) duration (r = 0.549), clamp duration (r = 0.586), and the inotropic score (r = 0.466) (p maximum lactate levels (during the first 12 postoperative hours) and CPB duration (r = 0.496), clamp duration (r = 0.509), and the inotropic score (r = 0.633) (p < 0.001 for all) were extremely positive. The early elevation of lactate levels in RACHS-1 subgroups 1 to 3 were highly correlated with poor prognosis and death (p < 0.03). In addition, the lactate levels differed significantly between survivors and nonsurvivors within the same RACHS-1 subgroup. The survivors in RACHS-1 subgroups 1 to 3 had lower mean lactate levels than the

  8. Modeling the ocean effect of geomagnetic storms

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Nils; Kuvshinov, A.

    2004-01-01

    At coastal sites, geomagnetic variations for periods shorter than a few days are strongly distorted by the conductivity of the nearby sea-water. This phenomena, known as the ocean (or coast) effect, is strongest in the magnetic vertical component. We demonstrate the ability to predict the ocean...... if the oceans are considered. Our analysis also indicates a significant local time asymmetry (i.e., contributions from spherical harmonics other than P-I(0)), especially during the main phase of the storm....

  9. Bias and Efficiency Tradeoffs in the Selection of Storm Suites Used to Estimate Flood Risk

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jordan R. Fischbach

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Modern joint probability methods for estimating storm surge or flood statistics are based on statistical aggregation of many hydrodynamic simulations that can be computationally expensive. Flood risk assessments that consider changing future conditions due to sea level rise or other drivers often require each storm to be run under a range of uncertain scenarios. Evaluating different flood risk mitigation measures, such as levees and floodwalls, in these future scenarios can further increase the computational cost. This study uses the Coastal Louisiana Risk Assessment model (CLARA to examine tradeoffs between the accuracy of estimated flood depth exceedances and the number and type of storms used to produce the estimates. Inclusion of lower-intensity, higher-frequency storms significantly reduces bias relative to storm suites with a similar number of storms but only containing high-intensity, lower-frequency storms, even when estimating exceedances at very low-frequency return periods.

  10. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    EPA's Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is used throughout the world for planning, analysis and design related to stormwater runoff, combined and sanitary sewers, and other drainage systems in urban areas.

  11. Regarding Electrified Martian Dust Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, W. M.

    2017-06-01

    We examine the dynamic competition between dust devil/storm charging currents and dissipating atmospheric currents. A question: Can high-current lightning be a dissipation product of this competition? Most likely not but there are exceptions.

  12. US Weather Bureau Storm Reports

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Weather Bureau and US Army Corps and other reports of storms from 1886-1955. Hourly precipitation from recording rain gauges captured during heavy rain, snow,...

  13. Magnetic storms and induction hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Love, Jeffrey J.; Rigler, E. Joshua; Pulkkinen, Antti; Balch, Christopher

    2014-01-01

    Magnetic storms are potentially hazardous to the activities and technological infrastructure of modern civilization. This reality was dramatically demonstrated during the great magnetic storm of March 1989, when surface geoelectric fields, produced by the interaction of the time-varying geomagnetic field with the Earth's electrically conducting interior, coupled onto the overlying Hydro-Québec electric power grid in Canada. Protective relays were tripped, the grid collapsed, and about 9 million people were temporarily left without electricity [Bolduc, 2002].

  14. Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

    2012-12-30

    Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  15. Storm surges in the Western Black Sea. Operational forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. MUNGOV

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available The frequency of the storm surges in the Black Sea is lower than that in other regions of the World Ocean but they cause significant damages as the magnitude of the sea level set-up is up to 7-8 times greater than that of other sea level variations. New methods and systems for storm surge forecasting and studying their statistical characteristics are absolutely necessary for the purposes of the coastal zone management. The operational forecasting storm surge model of Meteo-France was adopted for the Black Sea in accordance with the bilateral agreement between Meteo-France and NINMH. The model was verified using tide-gauge observations for the strongest storms observed along the Bulgarian coast over the last 10 years.

  16. Relationship between sawtooth events and magnetic storms

    OpenAIRE

    Cai, Xia; J. C. Zhang; Clauer, C. R.; Liemohn, M. W.

    2011-01-01

    The relationship between sawtooth events and magnetospheric substorms has been discussed extensively. However, the relationship between sawtooth events and magnetic storms has not been systematically examined. Using the sawtooth event list and magnetic storm list from January 1998 to December 2007, we investigate whether sawtooth events are storm time phenomena and whether there is a dependence on the strength and phase of storms. We have found that most of sawtooth events occur during storm ...

  17. Geomagnetic storm effects on GPS based navigation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. V. S. Rama Rao

    2009-05-01

    Full Text Available The energetic events on the sun, solar wind and subsequent effects on the Earth's geomagnetic field and upper atmosphere (ionosphere comprise space weather. Modern navigation systems that use radio-wave signals, reflecting from or propagating through the ionosphere as a means of determining range or distance, are vulnerable to a variety of effects that can degrade the performance of the navigational systems. In particular, the Global Positioning System (GPS that uses a constellation of earth orbiting satellites are affected due to the space weather phenomena.

    Studies made during two successive geomagnetic storms that occurred during the period from 8 to 12 November 2004, have clearly revealed the adverse affects on the GPS range delay as inferred from the Total Electron Content (TEC measurements made from a chain of seven dual frequency GPS receivers installed in the Indian sector. Significant increases in TEC at the Equatorial Ionization anomaly crest region are observed, resulting in increased range delay during the periods of the storm activity. Further, the storm time rapid changes occurring in TEC resulted in a number of phase slips in the GPS signal compared to those on quiet days. These phase slips often result in the loss of lock of the GPS receivers, similar to those that occur during strong(>10 dB L-band scintillation events, adversely affecting the GPS based navigation.

  18. Dust Storm over the Red Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    In the summer months in the Northern Hemisphere, dust storms originating in the deserts around the Arabian Peninsula have a significant impact on the amount of solar radiation that reaches the surface. Winds sweep desert sands into the air and transport them eastward toward India and Asia with the seasonal monsoon. These airborne particles absorb and deflect incoming radiation and can produce a cooling effect as far away as North America. According to calculations performed by the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), the terrain surrounding the southern portions of the Red Sea is one of the areas most dramatically cooled by the presence of summertime dust storms. That region is shown experiencing a dust storm in this true-color image from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) acquired on July 11, 2002. The GISS model simulations indicate that between June and August, the temperatures would be as much as 2 degrees Celsius warmer than they are if it weren't for the dust in the air-a cooling equivalent to the passage of a rain cloud overhead. The image shows the African countries of Sudan (top left), Ethiopia (bottom left), with Eritrea nestled between them along the western coast of the Red Sea. Toward the right side of the image are Saudi Arabia (top) and Yemen (bottom) on the Arabian Peninsula. Overlooking the Red Sea, a long escarpment runs along the western edge of the Arabian Peninsula, and in this image appears to be blocking the full eastward expansion of the dust storm. Image courtesy Jacques Descloitres, MODIS Land Rapid Response Team at NASA GSFC

  19. On some relationships between storms and plankton dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peters, F.

    2010-06-01

    The physico-chemical fields of the pelagic environment are constantly fluctuating at different spatial and temporal scales. Storms are extreme events of such fluctuations that cascade down to small scales to alter nutrient availability to microscopic algae or swimming and mating behaviour of motile plankton. Mediterranean storms sometimes are also responsible for the transport of micro and macronutrients from Saharan origin, albeit the significance for marine production is still under question. In coastal ecosystems, storms represent dissolved nutrient injections via run-off and resuspension that trigger planktonic succession events. Storms may also have a role in the development and mitigation of harmful algal blooms, events with economic and health consequences that are of growing societal concern. Based on laboratory experiments on the effects of turbulence on swimming behaviour and population growth of dinoflagellates, a conceptual sequence of events is proposed for bloom initiation. Overall, storms affect, directly or indirectly, the dynamics of plankton and hence ecosystem production and cannot be considered catastrophic or hazardous in this context. The full potential of such relationships will be evidenced once biological time series match the resolution and spatial coverage of meteorological and oceanic data. As the frequency and intensity of storms is subject to global change, future oceanic ecosystem production should be affected as well.

  20. Enhanced object-based tracking algorithm for convective rain storms and cells

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muñoz, Carlos; Wang, Li-Pen; Willems, Patrick

    2018-03-01

    This paper proposes a new object-based storm tracking algorithm, based upon TITAN (Thunderstorm Identification, Tracking, Analysis and Nowcasting). TITAN is a widely-used convective storm tracking algorithm but has limitations in handling small-scale yet high-intensity storm entities due to its single-threshold identification approach. It also has difficulties to effectively track fast-moving storms because of the employed matching approach that largely relies on the overlapping areas between successive storm entities. To address these deficiencies, a number of modifications are proposed and tested in this paper. These include a two-stage multi-threshold storm identification, a new formulation for characterizing storm's physical features, and an enhanced matching technique in synergy with an optical-flow storm field tracker, as well as, according to these modifications, a more complex merging and splitting scheme. High-resolution (5-min and 529-m) radar reflectivity data for 18 storm events over Belgium are used to calibrate and evaluate the algorithm. The performance of the proposed algorithm is compared with that of the original TITAN. The results suggest that the proposed algorithm can better isolate and match convective rainfall entities, as well as to provide more reliable and detailed motion estimates. Furthermore, the improvement is found to be more significant for higher rainfall intensities. The new algorithm has the potential to serve as a basis for further applications, such as storm nowcasting and long-term stochastic spatial and temporal rainfall generation.

  1. easySTORM: a robust, lower-cost approach to localisation and TIRF microscopy

    OpenAIRE

    Kwakwa, K; Savell, A; Davies, T.; Munro, I.; Parrinello, S.; Purbhoo, MA; Dunsby, C; Neil, MAA; French, PMW

    2016-01-01

    TIRF and STORM microscopy are super-resolving fluorescence imaging modalities for which current implementations on standard microscopes can present significant complexity and cost. We present a straightforward and low-cost approach to implement STORM and TIRF taking advantage of multimode optical fibres and multimode diode lasers to provide the required excitation light. Combined with open source software and relatively simple protocols to prepare samples for STORM, including the use of Vecta...

  2. Are Stellar Storms Bad News for M-Dwarf Planets?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kohler, Susanna

    2016-09-01

    Coronal mass ejections (CMEs), enormous releases of energy from the Sun, can have significant space-weather implications for Earth. Do similar storms from smaller stars M dwarfs like V374 Peg, or the nearby Proxima Centauri mean bad news for the planets that these stars host?Volatile StarsDifference in habitable-zone sizes for different stellar types. [NASA]When plasma is released from the Sun in the form of a CME traveling toward Earth, these storms can be powerful enough to disrupt communications and navigational equipment, damage satellites, and cause blackouts even with our planetary magnetic field to protect us! How might planets in the habitable zone of M-dwarf stars fare against similar storms?The first danger for an M dwarfs planets is that the habitable zone lies much closer to the star: it can range from 0.03 to 0.4 AU (i.e., within Mercurys orbit). Being so close to the star definitely makes a planet in an M dwarfs habitable zone vulnerable to storms.Colors indicate the probability of CME impact, for different different stellar latitudes where the CME originated vs. orbital inclination of the planet, (a) without any deflection, and (b) taking into account the CME deflection by the stars magnetic field. Hanging out in an orbit aligned with the current sheet turns out to be a bad idea. [Adapted from Kay et al. 2016]What about the storms themselves? You might think that because M dwarfs are cooler stars, they would be quieter, releasing fewer CMEs with less energy. Surprisingly, the opposite is true: M dwarfs are significantly more active than solar-type stars, and the CMEs are typically ten times more massive than those released from the Sun. Impacts from these powerful outbursts could easily strip any existing planet atmosphere, making a planet much less likely to be habitable. To make matters worse, M dwarfs can remain magnetically active for billions of years: even a star like Proxima Centauri, which is nearly 5 billion years old, isstill relatively

  3. Space storms as natural hazards

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. I. Dorman

    2008-04-01

    Full Text Available Eruptive activity of the Sun produces a chain of extreme geophysical events: high-speed solar wind, magnetic field disturbances in the interplanetary space and in the geomagnetic field and also intense fluxes of energetic particles. Space storms can potentially destroy spacecrafts, adversely affect astronauts and airline crew and human health on the Earth, lead to pipeline breaking, melt electricity transformers, and discontinue transmission. In this paper we deal with two consequences of space storms: (i rise in failures in the operation of railway devices and (ii rise in myocardial infarction and stroke incidences.

  4. Info-tsunami: surviving the storm with data quality probes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Philip Brown

    2003-12-01

    Full Text Available As a result of the rapid expansion of electronically available clinical knowledge, clinicians are faced with potential information overload (info-tsunami. The use of data quality probes (DQPs in primary care can encourage clinicians' awareness of, and improvement in, data quality entry over time. DQPs can also highlight areas of potential error or omission as well as good practice, which can impact directly upon the quality of patient care. In this paper, five specific conditions have been subjected to the use of a series of DQPs over a five-year period in order to assess and measure the performance of different initiatives on the quality of data capture and patient care.

  5. Significance of targeted therapy and genetic alterations in EGFR, ALK, or KRAS on survival in patients with non-small cell lung cancer treated with radiotherapy for brain metastases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mak, Kimberley S; Gainor, Justin F; Niemierko, Andrzej; Oh, Kevin S; Willers, Henning; Choi, Noah C; Loeffler, Jay S; Sequist, Lecia V; Shaw, Alice T; Shih, Helen A

    2015-02-01

    We determined the impact of genetic alterations in EGFR, ALK, or KRAS on survival after radiotherapy for brain metastases in non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). Of 172 genotyped NSCLC patients treated with radiotherapy for brain metastases in 2005-2012, 54 had cancers with EGFR mutations, 12 had ALK rearrangements, 38 had KRAS mutations, and 68 were wild-type (WT). Overall survival (OS) was determined. Median follow-up was 8.6 months. Median OS was 13.6 months for patients with EGFR mutations and 26.3 months for patients with ALK rearrangements, in contrast to 5.7 months for KRAS-mutant patients and 5.5 months for WT patients (P = .001). On multivariate analysis, adjusting for receipt of targeted therapy after cranial radiotherapy, ALK rearrangements were associated with improved OS (HR, 0.31; 95% CI, 0.13-0.74; P = .008). EGFR mutations were not significantly associated with improved OS on multivariate analysis (HR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.37-1.38; P = .3). KRAS mutations were also not associated with improved OS (HR, 0.93; 95% CI, 0.59-1.47; P = .8). Receipt of targeted therapy after cranial radiotherapy was independently associated with improved OS (HR, 0.30; 95% CI, 0.17-0.54; P genetic alterations in ALK have improved survival outcomes after radiotherapy for brain metastases compared with EGFR, KRAS, or WT. Subsequent receipt of targeted therapy was associated with additional improvement in OS. © The Author(s) 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Neuro-Oncology. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.

  6. Effect of hurricanes and violent storms on salt marsh

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, N.; Ganju, N. K.; Fagherazzi, S.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  7. Aggregated responses of human mobility to severe winter storms: An empirical study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yan; Wang, Qi; Taylor, John E

    2017-01-01

    Increasing frequency of extreme winter storms has resulted in costly damages and a disruptive impact on the northeastern United States. It is important to understand human mobility patterns during such storms for disaster preparation and relief operations. We investigated the effects of severe winter storms on human mobility during a 2015 blizzard using 2.69 million Twitter geolocations. We found that displacements of different trip distances and radii of gyration of individuals' mobility were perturbed significantly. We further explored the characteristics of perturbed mobility during the storm, and demonstrated that individuals' recurrent mobility does not have a higher degree of similarity with their perturbed mobility, when comparing with its similarity to non-perturbed mobility. These empirical findings on human mobility impacted by severe winter storms have potential long-term implications on emergency response planning and the development of strategies to improve resilience in severe winter storms.

  8. Significant survival advantage of high pulmonary vein index and the presence of native pulmonary artery in pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect and major aortopulmonary collateral arteries: results from preoperative computed tomography angiography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jia, Qianjun; Cen, Jianzheng; Zhuang, Jian; Zhong, Xiaomei; Liu, Xiaoqing; Li, Jiahua; Liang, Changhong; Huang, Meiping

    2017-08-01

    The prognosis of pulmonary atresia with ventricular septal defect and major aortopulmonary collateral arteries (PA-VSD-MAPCAs) after surgery shows substantial clinical heterogeneity and predictors for outcomes are lacking. This study aimed to assess the predictive value of preoperative cardiac computed tomography angiography (CTA) for survival in patients with PA-VSD-MAPCAs. We retrospectively analysed PA-VSD-MAPCA patients with preoperative CTA who underwent both right ventricular outflow tract reconstruction and MAPCA unifocalization ( n  = 24) or pulmonary artery rehabilitation ( n  = 28). The end-point was overall survival. Prognostic values of CTA were assessed using Cox univariate and multivariate analyses. The significant threshold of independent parameters was calculated using receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curves. During a median follow-up of 1145 days, a total of 13 deaths were observed. Multivariate analysis identified a high pulmonary vein index (PVI) [hazard ratio (HR) = 0.03; 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.03, 0.28; P  advantage in PA-VSD-MAPCA patients. A PVI ≥438 mm 2 /m 2 may be a reliable positive prognosticator that could improve the decision-making strategy for PA-VSD-MAPCA patients.

  9. Dune erosion during storm surges

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Thiel de Vries, J.S.M.

    2009-01-01

    Large parts of The Netherlands are protected from flooding by a narrow strip of sandy beaches and dunes. The aim of this thesis is to extend the existing knowledge of dune erosion during storm surges as it occurs along the Dutch coast. The thesis discusses: • A large scale dune erosion experiment to

  10. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stormwater discharges continue to cause impairment of our Nation’s waterbodies. Regulations that require the retention and/or treatment of frequent, small storms that dominate runoff volumes and pollutant loads are becoming more common. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (E...

  11. Feedbacks of Sea Surface Temperature to Wintertime Storm Tracks in the North Atlantic

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gan, Bolan; Wu, Lixin

    2017-04-01

    Storm tracks, characterized by the intense activities of synoptic-scale transient eddies in the midlatitudes aloft, play a critical role in the climate system. Previous studies have revealed the importance of oceanic fronts associated with strong sea surface temperature (SST) gradients on the climatological structure of storm tracks. The coupling relationship between storm-track and SST anomalies, however, has not been clearly identified in observation. Here, the lagged maximum covariance analysis (MCA) is performed on winter storm-track anomalies, represented by the meridional heat flux by synoptic-scale (2-8 days) transient eddies, and SST anomalies in the North Atlantic, which both are derived from the reanalysis datasets spanning the 20th century. The analysis shows significant seasonal and interannual coupling between storm-track and SST variations. On seasonal time scales, it is found that SST anomalies in the preceding early winter (November-December), which are expected to change the lower-tropospheric baroclinicity, can significantly influence storm tracks in early spring (March); that is, an intensification and slight northward shift of storm tracks in response to a midlatitude SST dipole, with cold pole centered to the southeast of Newfoundland and warm pole in the western subtropical Atlantic. This storm-track response pattern is similar to the storm-track forcing pattern in early spring, which resembles the dominant mode of storm tracks. On interannual time scales, it is found that the wintertime (January-to-March) storm-track and SST anomalies are mutually reinforced, manifesting as a zonal-dipole-like pattern in storm-track anomalies (with dominant negative anomalies in the downstream) coupled with a midlatitude SST monopole (with warm anomalies centered to the south and east of Newfoundland).

  12. Storm effects on intertidal invertebrates: increased beta diversity of few individuals and species.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corte, Guilherme N; Schlacher, Thomas A; Checon, Helio H; Barboza, Carlos A M; Siegle, Eduardo; Coleman, Ross A; Amaral, Antonia Cecília Z

    2017-01-01

    Climate change is predicted to lead to more extreme weather events, including changes to storm frequency, intensity and location. Yet the ecological responses to storms are incompletely understood for sandy shorelines, the globe's longest land-ocean interface. Here we document how storms of different magnitude impacted the invertebrate assemblages on a tidal flat in Brazil. We specifically tested the relationships between wave energy and spatial heterogeneity, both for habitat properties (habitat heterogeneity) and fauna (β-diversity), predicting that larger storms redistribute sediments and hence lead to spatially less variable faunal assemblages. The sediment matrix tended to become less heterogeneous across the flat after high-energy wave events, whereas β-diversity increased after storms. This higher β-diversity was primarily driven by species losses. Significantly fewer species at a significantly lower density occurred within days to weeks after storms. Negative density and biomass responses to storm events were most prominent in crustaceans. Invertebrate assemblages appeared to recover within a short time (weeks to months) after storms, highlighting that most species typical of sedimentary shorelines are, to some degree, resilient to short-term changes in wave energy. Given that storm frequency and intensity are predicted to change in the coming decades, identifying properties that determine resilience and recovery of ecosystems constitute a research priority for sedimentary shorelines and beyond.

  13. On the Reduced Geoeffectiveness of Solar Cycle 24: A Moderate Storm Perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Selvakumaran, R.; Veenadhari, B.; Akiyama, S.; Pandya, Megha; Gopalswamy, N,; Yashiro, S.; Kumar, Sandeep; Makela, P.; Xie, H.

    2016-01-01

    The moderate and intense geomagnetic storms are identified for the first 77 months of solar cycles 23 and 24. The solar sources responsible for the moderate geomagnetic storms are indentified during the same epoch for both the cycles. Solar cycle 24 has shown nearly 80% reduction in the occurrence of intense storms whereas it is only 40% in case of moderate storms when compared to previous cycle. The solar and interplanetary characteristics of the moderate storms driven by coronal mass ejection (CME) are compared for solar cycles 23 and 24 in order to see reduction in geoeffectiveness has anything to do with the occurrence of moderate storm. Though there is reduction in the occurrence of moderate storms, the Dst distribution does not show much difference. Similarly, the solar source parameters like CME speed, mass, and width did not show any significant variation in the average values as well as the distribution. The correlation between VBz and Dst is determined, and it is found to be moderate with value of 0.68 for cycle 23 and 0.61 for cycle 24. The magnetospheric energy flux parameter epsilon (epsilon) is estimated during the main phase of all moderate storms during solar cycles 23 and 24. The energy transfer decreased in solar cycle 24 when compared to cycle 23. These results are significantly different when all geomagnetic storms are taken into consideration for both the solar cycles.

  14. The 2008 Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak: Synthetic Dual Doppler Analysis of Contrasting Tornadic Storm Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knupp, Kevin R.; Coleman, Timothy; Carey, Larry; Peterson, Walt; Elkins, Calvin

    2008-01-01

    During the Super Tuesday Tornado Outbreak on 5-6 February, a significant number of storms passed within about 40 km of WSR-88D radars. This distance, combined with the significant motion vector (from the southwest at 20-25 m per second) of relatively steady storms, is amenable to a synthetic dual Doppler analysis during the times when the storms passed the WSR-88D locations. Nine storms will be analyzed using the SDD technique. The following table provides their general characteristics and nearest approach to the 88D radars. For this data set, storm structure ranges from isolated supercell to QLCS. Each storm will be analyzed for a 40-60 min period during passage by the WSR-88D radar to determine general storm properties. Analysis of high-resolution single Doppler data around the time of passage (plus or minus 30 min), combined with 1-2 SDD analyses, will be used to examine the kinematic structure of low-level circulations (e.g., mesocyclone, downdraft) and the relation to the parent storm. This analysis may provide insights on the fundamental differences between cyclonic circulations in supercell storms and those within QCLS's.

  15. Storm effects on intertidal invertebrates: increased beta diversity of few individuals and species

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guilherme N. Corte

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Climate change is predicted to lead to more extreme weather events, including changes to storm frequency, intensity and location. Yet the ecological responses to storms are incompletely understood for sandy shorelines, the globe’s longest land-ocean interface. Here we document how storms of different magnitude impacted the invertebrate assemblages on a tidal flat in Brazil. We specifically tested the relationships between wave energy and spatial heterogeneity, both for habitat properties (habitat heterogeneity and fauna (β-diversity, predicting that larger storms redistribute sediments and hence lead to spatially less variable faunal assemblages. The sediment matrix tended to become less heterogeneous across the flat after high-energy wave events, whereas β-diversity increased after storms. This higher β-diversity was primarily driven by species losses. Significantly fewer species at a significantly lower density occurred within days to weeks after storms. Negative density and biomass responses to storm events were most prominent in crustaceans. Invertebrate assemblages appeared to recover within a short time (weeks to months after storms, highlighting that most species typical of sedimentary shorelines are, to some degree, resilient to short-term changes in wave energy. Given that storm frequency and intensity are predicted to change in the coming decades, identifying properties that determine resilience and recovery of ecosystems constitute a research priority for sedimentary shorelines and beyond.

  16. Somatic Copy Number Abnormalities and Mutations in PI3K/AKT/mTOR Pathway Have Prognostic Significance for Overall Survival in Platinum Treated Locally Advanced or Metastatic Urothelial Tumors.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joaquim Bellmunt

    Full Text Available An integrative analysis was conducted to identify genomic alterations at a pathway level that could predict overall survival (OS in patients with advanced urothelial carcinoma (UC treated with platinum-based chemotherapy.DNA and RNA were extracted from 103 formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE invasive high-grade UC samples and were screened for mutations, copy number variation (CNV and gene expression analysis. Clinical data were available from 85 cases. Mutations were analyzed by mass-spectrometry based on genotyping platform (Oncomap 3 and genomic imbalances were detected by comparative genomic hybridization (CGH analysis. Regions with threshold of log2 ratio ≥0.4, or ≤0.6 were defined as either having copy number gain or loss and significantly recurrent CNV across the set of samples were determined using a GISTIC analysis. Expression analysis on selected relevant UC genes was conducted using Nanostring. To define the co-occurrence pattern of mutations and CNV, we grouped genomic events into 5 core signal transduction pathways: 1 TP53 pathway, 2 RTK/RAS/RAF pathway, 3 PI3K/AKT/mTOR pathway, 4 WNT/CTNNB1, 5 RB1 pathway. Cox regression was used to assess pathways abnormalities with survival outcomes.35 samples (41% harbored mutations on at least one gene: TP53 (16%, PIK3CA (9%, FGFR3 (2%, HRAS/KRAS (5%, and CTNNB1 (1%. 66% of patients had some sort of CNV. PIK3CA/AKT/mTOR pathway alteration (mutations+CNV had the greatest impact on OS (p=0.055. At a gene level, overexpression of CTNNB1 (p=0.0008 and PIK3CA (p=0.02 were associated with shorter OS. Mutational status on PIK3CA was not associated with survival. Among other individually found genomic alterations, TP53 mutations (p=0.07, mTOR gain (p=0.07 and PTEN overexpression (p=0.08 have a marginally significant negative impact on OS.Our study suggests that targeted therapies focusing on the PIK3CA/AKT/mTOR pathway genomic alterations can generate the greatest impact in the overall patient

  17. Analysis of Prognostic Values of Various PET Metrics in Preoperative 18F-FDG PET for Early-Stage Bronchial Carcinoma for Progression-Free and Overall Survival: Significantly Increased Glycolysis Is a Predictive Factor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Steiger, Seraina; Arvanitakis, Michael; Sick, Beate; Weder, Walter; Hillinger, Sven; Burger, Irene A

    2017-12-01

    The purpose of this study was to assess various volume-based PET quantification metrics, including metabolic tumor volume and total lesion glycolysis (TLG) with different thresholds, as well as background activity-based PET metrics (background-subtracted lesion activity [BSL] and background-subtracted volume) as prognostic markers for progression-free and overall survival (PFS and OS, respectively) in early-stage I and II non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) after resection. Methods: Patients (n = 133) underwent an adequate 18F-FDG PET/CT scan before surgery between January 2003 and December 2010. All PET activity metrics showed a skewed distribution and were log-transformed before calculation of the Pearson correlation coefficients. Survival tree analysis was used to discriminate between high- and low-risk patients and to select the most important prognostic markers. The Akaike information criterion was used to compare 2 univariate models. Results: Within the study time, 36 patients died from NSCLC and 26 patients from other causes. At the end of follow-up, 70 patients were alive, with 67 patients being free of disease. All log-transformed PET metrics showed a strong linear association, with a Pearson correlation coefficient between 0.703 and 0.962. After multiple testing corrections, only 1 prognostic marker contributed a significant split point in the survival tree analysis. Of 10 potential predictors including 7 PET metrics, a BSL greater than 6,852 (P = 0.017) was chosen as split point, assigning 13 patients into a high-risk group. If BSL was removed from the set of predictors, a 42% TLG (TLG42%) of greater than 4,204 (P = 0.023) was chosen as split point. When a dichotomized BSL or TLG42% variable was used for a univariate Cox model, the Akaike information criterion difference of both models was smaller than 2; therefore, the data do not provide evidence that 1 of the 2 prognostic factors is superior. Conclusion: Volume-based PET metrics correlate with PFS and

  18. What caused the rapid recovery of the Carrington storm?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keika, Kunihiro; Ebihara, Yusuke; Kataoka, Ryuho

    2015-05-01

    The geomagnetic storm during the Carrington event, which occurred on 2 September 1859, displayed extremely rapid recovery. The geomagnetic field increased by approximately 650 nT/h at Bombay, India, and by >300 nT/h in 1-h averaged data. Although the rapid recovery is considered due to a sudden increase in the magnetopause current, a sudden decrease of the ring current, or/and a sudden enhancement of the ionospheric currents, this study focuses on the ring current decay. The Carrington rapid recovery had a time constant (approximately 1 h) comparable to the storm development (i.e., decrease in the geomagnetic field), indicating that energy loss from the ring current region is predominantly controlled by E × B convection transport which is responsible for energy input during the storm main phase. This feature has led us to a hypothesis that the flow-out of dense ring current ions and injections of tenuous plasma sheet ions caused the rapid decay of the ring current and in turn the storm rapid recovery. This study examines whether the Carrington rapid recovery can be explained by the flow-out effect. We extend the empirical Burton's model to a model that takes into consideration a sudden change in solar wind density which is correlated with plasma sheet density. We first apply the extended Burton's model to previously observed four intense magnetic storms (Dst minimum solar wind data are available. Using the best fit parameters found by forward modeling, the extended model estimates the recovery of the Carrington storm. The estimate indicates that a solar wind structure with a density bump by approximately 100 cm-3 (and southward interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) of 65 nT and solar wind speed of 1,500 km/s) can cause the rapid recovery under a continuous southward IMF condition. We conclude that the flow-out effect plays a significant role in producing the rapid recovery of the Carrington storm.

  19. Changing waves and storms in the Northeast Atlantic?

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Carretero, J.C.; Gomez, M.; Lozano, I. [Programa de Clima Maritimo (Puertos del Estado), Madrid (Spain)] [and others; WASA group

    1997-12-31

    The European project WASA has been set up to verifying, or to disprove hypotheses of a worsening storm and wave climate in the Northeast Atlantic and its adjacent seas in the present century. Its main conclusion is that the storm- and wave climate in most of the Northeast Atlantic and in the North Sea has undergone significant variations on time scales of decades; it has indeed roughened in recent decades, but the present intensity of the storm- and wave-climate seems to be comparable with that at the beginning of this century. Part of this variability is found to be related to the North Atlantic oscillation. An analysis of a high-resolution climate change experiment, mimicking global warming due to increased greenhouse gas concentrations, results in a weak increase of storm activity and (extreme) wave heights in the Bay of Biscay and in the North Sea, while storm action and waves slightly decrease along the Norwegian coast and in most of the remaining North Atlantic area. A weak increase in storm surges in the southern and eastern part of the North Sea is expected. These projected anthropogenic changes at the time of CO{sub 2} doubling fall well within the limits of variability observed in the past. A major methodical obstacle for the assessment of changes in the intensity of storm and wave events are inhomogeneities in the observational record, both in terms of local observations and of analyzed pro ducts (such as weather maps), which usually produce an artificial increase of extreme winds. This occurs because older analyses were based on fewer observations and with more limited conceptual and numerical models of the dynamical processes than more recent analyses. 52 refs.

  20. Factors influencing storm-generated suspended-sediment concentrations and loads in four basins of contrasting land use, humid-tropical Puerto Rico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gellis, Allen C.

    2013-01-01

    The significant characteristics controlling the variability in storm-generated suspended-sediment loads and concentrations were analyzed for four basins of differing land use (forest, pasture, cropland, and urbanizing) in humid-tropical Puerto Rico. Statistical analysis involved stepwise regression on factor scores. The explanatory variables were attributes of flow, hydrograph peaks, and rainfall, categorized into 5 flow periods: (1) the current storm hydrograph, (2) the flow and rainfall since the previous storm event, (3) the previous storm event, (4) 2nd previous storm event, and (5) the 3rd previous storm event. The response variables (storm generated sediment loads and concentrations) were analyzed for three portions of the storm hydrograph: (1) the entire storm, (2) the rising limb, and (3) the recessional limb. Hysteresis differences in sediment concentration between the rising and falling limb were also analyzed using these explanatory variables.

  1. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: average conditions in Los Angeles County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  2. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: average conditions in San Diego County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  3. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: average conditions in Orange County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  4. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: average conditions in Ventura County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  5. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 wave-hazard projections: average conditions in Santa Barbara County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived significant wave height (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  6. Vulnerability assessment of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    K. Li

    2011-07-01

    Full Text Available Being bordered by the South China Sea and with long coastline, the coastal zone of Guangdong Province is often under severe risk of storm surges, as one of a few regions in China which is seriously threatened by storm surges. This article systematically analyzes the vulnerability factors of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong (from Yangjing to Shanwei. Five vulnerability assessment indicators of hazard-bearing bodies are proposed, which are social economic index, land use index, eco-environmental index, coastal construction index, and disaster-bearing capability index. Then storm surge vulnerability assessment index system in the coastal area of Guangdong is established. Additionally, the international general mode about coastal vulnerability assessment is improved, and the vulnerability evolution model of storm surges in the coastal area of Guangdong is constructed. Using ArcGIS, the vulnerability zoning map of storm surges in the study region is drawn. Results show that there is the highest degree of storm surge vulnerability in Zhuhai, Panyu, and Taishan; second in Zhongshan, Dongguan, Huiyang, and Haifeng; third in Jiangmen, Shanwei, Yangjiang, and Yangdong; fourth in Baoan, Kaiping, and Enping; and lowest in Guangzhou, Shunde, Shenzhen, and Longgang. This study on the risk of storm surges in these coastal cities can guide the land use of coastal cities in the future, and provide scientific advice for the government to prevent and mitigate the storm surge disasters. It has important theoretical and practical significance.

  7. Mars atmospheric phenomena during major dust storms, as measured at surface

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ryan, J. A.; Henry, R. M.

    1979-01-01

    Meteorological instrumentation aboard the Viking Mars Landers measures wind, temperature, and pressure. Two global dust storms occurred during northern autumn and winter, observed both by the orbiters and by the landers. The meteorological data from the landers has been analyzed for the period just before first storm arrival to just after second storm arrival, with the objectives of defining the meteorological phenomena during the storm period, determining those associated with storm and dust arrival, and evaluating the effects on synoptic conditions and the general circulation. Times of dust arrival over the sites could be defined fairly closely from optical and pressure (solar tide) data, and dust arrival was also accompanied by changes in diurnal temperature range, temperature maxima, and temperature minima. The arrivals of the storms at Viking Lander 1 were accompanied by significant increases in wind speed and pressure. No such changes were observed at Viking Lander 2. It is possible that surface material could have been raised locally at Viking Lander 1. Throughout the period except for the time following the second dust storm the synoptic picture at Viking Lander 2 was one of eastward moving cyclonic and anticyclonic systems. These disappeared following the second storm, a phenomenon which may be related to the storm.

  8. Improving the simulation of convective dust storms in regional-to-global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Convective dust storms have significant impacts on atmospheric conditions and air quality and are a major source of dust uplift in summertime. However, regional-to-global models generally do not accurately simulate these storms, a limitation that can be attributed to (1) using a ...

  9. Hurricane waves on Storm Surges in Coastal Zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, C.

    2005-05-01

    During a tropical storm, high winds and low pressure generate abnormal sea water levels and currents. We present a time series of 48 hours water levels combining wave effects on surges during hurricane Opal (1995). The offshore hurricane ocean wave is modeled by a recent parametric ocean wave model using the best track data. The post-storm meteorological input data are applied to the calculation of surges and storm waves. A scheme is used to simulate the effects of wave-surges near the coast: the time varying surges is obtained first and then the modified mean water level is used for coastal wave calculations. The high water levels at the gauge station and on-site debris line are collected for model comparison. The hurricane waves and coastal waves are calculated near the eye center and on the beach slope, where the waves break and produce a mean free surface wave set-up. We examined the maximum wave set-ups at the shoreline, the wave run-up on the beach, adding up the storm surges and predicted tides at the station. It was found that the inland flooding is the combined results of storm surges elevating the water level, causing the wave breaking further landward and a higher wave run-up. The accuracy of hurricane waves is significant to the determination of inundation zone.

  10. Potential Seasonal Predictability for Winter Storms over Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wild, Simon; Befort, Daniel J.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.

    2017-04-01

    Reliable seasonal forecasts of strong extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms would have great social and economical benefits, as these events are the most costly natural hazards over Europe. In a previous study we have shown good agreement of spatial climatological distributions of extra-tropical cyclones and wind storms in state-of-the-art multi-member seasonal prediction systems with reanalysis. We also found significant seasonal prediction skill of extra-tropical cyclones and windstorms affecting numerous European countries. We continue this research by investigating the mechanisms and precursor conditions (primarily over the North Atlantic) on a seasonal time scale leading to enhanced extra-tropical cyclone activity and winter storm frequency over Europe. Our results regarding mechanisms show that an increased surface temperature gradient at the western edge of the North Atlantic can be related to enhanced winter storm frequency further downstream causing for example a greater number of storms over the British Isles, as observed in winter 2013-14.The so-called "Horseshoe Index", a SST tripole anomaly pattern over the North Atlantic in the summer months can also cause a higher number of winter storms over Europe in the subsequent winter. We will show results of AMIP-type sensitivity experiments using an AGCM (ECHAM5), supporting this hypothesis. Finally we will analyse whether existing seasonal forecast systems are able to capture these identified mechanisms and precursor conditions affecting the models' seasonal prediction skill.

  11. Electrification in winter storms and the analysis of thunderstorm overflight

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, Marx

    1991-01-01

    The emergence of 24 hr operational lightning detection networks has led to the finding that positive lightning strokes, although still much fewer in number than the normal negative strokes, are present in summer and winter storms. Recent papers address the importance of understanding the meteorological conditions which lead to a dominance of one polarity of stroke over another; the appearance of positive strokes at the end of a storm appeared to presage the end-of-storm downdraft and subsidence leading to downburst activity. It is beginning to appear that positive strokes may be important meteorological indicators. Significant research accomplishments on the following topics are addressed: (1) a study to verify that the black boxes used in the lightning networks to detect both negative and positive strokes to ground were accurate; (2) the use of slow tails to determine the polarity of distant lightning; (3) lightning initiation in winter vs. summer storms; (4) the upgrade of sensors for the measurement of electric field signals associated with lightning; (5) the analysis of lightning flash records from storms between 40 and 125 km from the sensor; and (6) an interesting aspect of the initiation process which involves the physical processes driving the stepped leader. The focus of current research and future research plans are presented.

  12. Letter to the Editor: Geomagnetic storm effects at low latitudes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. G. Rastogi

    Full Text Available The geomagnetic horizontal (H field from the chain of nine observatories in India are used to study the storm-time and disturbance daily variations. The peak decrease in storm-time variation in H showed significant enhancements at the equatorial electrojet stations over and above the normally expected decrease due to the ring current effects corrected for geomagnetic latitudes. The disturbance daily variation of H at equatorial stations showed a large decrease around midday hours over and above the usual dawn-maximum and dusk-minimum seen at any mid-latitude stations around the world. These slow and persistent additional decreases of H of disturbance daily variation at equatorial latitudes could be the effect of a westward electric field due to the Disturbance Ionospheric dynamo coupled with abnormally large electrical conductivities in the E region over the equator.Key words. Ionosphere (electric fields and currents · Magnetospheric physics (electric fields; storms and substorms

  13. Diamagnetic measurements in the STOR-M tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trembach, Dallas

    2008-11-01

    Diamagnetic measurements of poloidal beta have been successfully performed on the Saskatchewan Torus-Modified (STOR-M) using a compensated coil system mounted exterior to the vacuum chamber wall. A significant challenge in performing these measurements on STOR-M is the presence of a decaying toroidal magnetic field over the duration of the discharge. A simple method for compensating these measurements based on independently measuring the vacuum field signal and correcting during post-processing is presented. Measurements of poloidal beta using the diamagnetic coil arrangement are compared to calculations of poloidal beta based on the Spitzer conductivity corrected for trapped electrons.

  14. Major dust storms and westward traveling waves on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Huiqun

    2017-04-01

    Westward traveling waves are observed during major dust storm periods in northern fall and winter. The close correlation in timing makes westward traveling wave one of the signature responses of the Martian atmosphere to major dust storms. Westward traveling waves are dominated by zonal wave number m = 1 in the middle atmosphere and are typically characterized by long wave period. They are associated with significant temperature perturbations near the edge of the north polar vortex. Their wind signals extend to the low latitudes and the southern hemisphere. Their eddy momentum and heat fluxes exhibit complex patterns on a global scale in the middle atmosphere.

  15. Demographic effects of extreme weather events: snow storms, breeding success, and population growth rate in a long-lived Antarctic seabird.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Descamps, Sébastien; Tarroux, Arnaud; Varpe, Øystein; Yoccoz, Nigel G; Tveraa, Torkild; Lorentsen, Svein-Håkon

    2015-01-01

    Weather extremes are one important element of ongoing climate change, but their impacts are poorly understood because they are, by definition, rare events. If the frequency and severity of extreme weather events increase, there is an urgent need to understand and predict the ecological consequences of such events. In this study, we aimed to quantify the effects of snow storms on nest survival in Antarctic petrels and assess whether snow storms are an important driver of annual breeding success and population growth rate. We used detailed data on daily individual nest survival in a year with frequent and heavy snow storms, and long term data on petrel productivity (i.e., number of chicks produced) at the colony level. Our results indicated that snow storms are an important determinant of nest survival and overall productivity. Snow storm events explained 30% of the daily nest survival within the 2011/2012 season and nearly 30% of the interannual variation in colony productivity in period 1985-2014. Snow storms are a key driver of Antarctic petrel breeding success, and potentially population dynamics. We also found state-dependent effects of snow storms and chicks in poor condition were more likely to die during a snow storm than chicks in good condition. This stresses the importance of considering interactions between individual heterogeneity and extreme weather events to understand both individual and population responses to climate change.

  16. Magnetic storms on Mars

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne

    2011-01-01

    Based on data from the Mars Global Surveyor magnetometer we examine periods of significantly enhanced magnetic disturbances in the martian space environment. Using almost seven years of observations during the maximum and early declining phase of the previous solar cycle the occurrence pattern...... and typical time profile of such periods is investigated and compared to solar wind measurements at Earth. Typical durations of the events are 20–40h, and there is a tendency for large events to last longer, but a large spread in duration and intensity are found. The large and medium intensity events at Mars...... field disturbance at Mars is solar wind dynamic pressure variations associated with the eccentricity of the martian orbit around the Sun....

  17. The brewing storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bruce Kaplan, DVM

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available An eclectic collection of papers by physicians, veterinarians and other allied health medical scientists on the ‘One Medicine - One Health’ concept has been assembled in this monograph. The contributions include thirteen individual ‘One Health’ papers by fifty-three participants from twelve countries. The authors joined to confront various global health threats. In addition to the participating countries, individuals from twenty-six other nations have united as supporters of the ‘One Health initiative’. Biomedical research, scientific knowledge, environmental health, public health, individual health and clinical health care will all be enhanced by implementing the ‘One Medicine - One Health’ concept which promotes co-equal, cross-disciplinary communication and collaboration. The scientific coalition that evolves through this collaborative effort will significantly enhance human and animal health for future generations.

  18. Effects of storm-water runoff on water quality of the Edwards Aquifer near Austin, Texas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andrews, Freeman L.; Schertz, Terry L.; Slade, Raymond M.; Rawson, Jack

    1984-01-01

    Analyses of samples collected from Barton Springs at approximately weekly Intervals and from Barton Creek and five wells in the Austin area during selected storm-runoff periods generally show that recharge during storm runoff resulted in significant temporal and area! variations in the quality of ground water in the recharge zone of the Edwards aquifer. Recharge during storm runoff resulted in significant increases of bacterial densities in the ground water. Densities of fecal coliform bacteria in samples collected from Barton Springs, the major point of ground-water discharge, ranged from less than 1 colony per 100 milliliters during dry weather in November 1981 and January and August 1982 to 6,100 colonies per 100 milliliters during a storm in May 1982. Densities of fecal streptococcal bacteria ranged from 1 colony per 100 miniliters during dry weather in December 1981 to 11,000 colonies per 100 miniliters during a storm in May 1982.

  19. Time to recurrence is a significant predictor of cancer-specific survival after recurrence in patients with recurrent renal cell carcinoma--results from a comprehensive multi-centre database (CORONA/SATURN-Project).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brookman-May, Sabine D; May, Matthias; Shariat, Shahrokh F; Novara, Giacomo; Zigeuner, Richard; Cindolo, Luca; De Cobelli, Ottavio; De Nunzio, Cosimo; Pahernik, Sascha; Wirth, Manfred P; Longo, Nicola; Simonato, Alchiede; Serni, Sergio; Siracusano, Salvatore; Volpe, Alessandro; Morgia, Giuseppe; Bertini, Roberto; Dalpiaz, Orietta; Stief, Christian; Ficarra, Vincenzo

    2013-11-01

    To assess the prognostic impact of time to recurrence (TTR) on cancer-specific survival (CSS) after recurrence in patients with renal cell carcinoma (RCC) undergoing radical nephrectomy or nephron-sparing surgery. To analyse differences in clinical and histopathological criteria between patients with early and late recurrence. Of 13,107 patients with RCC from an international multicentre database, 1712 patients developed recurrence in the follow-up (FU), at a median (interquartile range) of 50.1 (25-106) months. In all, 1402 patients had recurrence at ≤5 years (Group A) and 310 patients beyond this time (Group B). Differences in clinical and histopathological variables between patients with early and late recurrence were analysed. The influence of TTR and further variables on CSS after recurrence was assessed by Cox regression analysis. Male gender, advanced age, tumour diameter and stage, Fuhrman grade 3-4, lymphovascular invasion (LVI), and pN + stage were significantly more frequent in patients with early recurrence, who had a significantly reduced 3-year CSS of 30% compared with patients in Group B (41%; P = 0.001). Age, gender, tumour histology, pT stage, and continuous TTR (hazard ratio 0.99, P = 0.006; monthly interval) independently predicted CSS. By inclusion of dichotomised TTR in the multivariable model, a significant influence of this variable on CSS was present until 48 months after surgery, but not beyond this time. Advanced age, male gender, larger tumour diameters, LVI, Fuhrman grade 3-4, pN + stage, and advanced tumour stages are associated with early recurrence. Up to 4 years from surgery, a shorter TTR independently predicts a reduced CSS after recurrence. © 2013 The Authors. BJU International © 2013 BJU International.

  20. Swashed away? Storm impacts on sandy beach macrofaunal communities

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harris, Linda; Nel, Ronel; Smale, Malcolm; Schoeman, David

    2011-09-01

    Storms can have a large impact on sandy shores, with powerful waves eroding large volumes of sand off the beach. Resulting damage to the physical environment has been well-studied but the ecological implications of these natural phenomena are less known. Since climate change predictions suggest an increase in storminess in the near future, understanding these ecological implications is vital if sandy shores are to be proactively managed for resilience. Here, we report on an opportunistic experiment that tests the a priori expectation that storms impact beach macrofaunal communities by modifying natural patterns of beach morphodynamics. Two sites at Sardinia Bay, South Africa, were sampled for macrofauna and physical descriptors following standard sampling methods. This sampling took place five times at three- to four-month intervals between April 2008 and August 2009. The second and last sampling events were undertaken after unusually large storms, the first of which was sufficiently large to transform one site from a sandy beach into a mixed shore for the first time in living memory. A range of univariate (linear mixed-effects models) and multivariate (e.g. non-metric multidimensional scaling, PERMANOVA) methods were employed to describe trends in the time series, and to explore the likelihood of possible explanatory mechanisms. Macrofaunal communities at the dune-backed beach (Site 2) withstood the effects of the first storm but were altered significantly by the second storm. In contrast, macrofauna communities at Site 1, where the supralittoral had been anthropogenically modified so that exchange of sediments with the beach was limited, were strongly affected by the first storm and showed little recovery over the study period. In line with predictions from ecological theory, beach morphodynamics was found to be a strong driver of temporal patterns in the macrofaunal community structure, with the storm events also identified as a significant factor, likely

  1. Mapping and Visualization of Storm-Surge Dynamics for Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gesch, Dean B.

    2009-01-01

    The damages caused by the storm surges from Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita were significant and occurred over broad areas. Storm-surge maps are among the most useful geospatial datasets for hurricane recovery, impact assessments, and mitigation planning for future storms. Surveyed high-water marks were used to generate a maximum storm-surge surface for Hurricane Katrina extending from eastern Louisiana to Mobile Bay, Alabama. The interpolated surface was intersected with high-resolution lidar elevation data covering the study area to produce a highly detailed digital storm-surge inundation map. The storm-surge dataset and related data are available for display and query in a Web-based viewer application. A unique water-level dataset from a network of portable pressure sensors deployed in the days just prior to Hurricane Rita's landfall captured the hurricane's storm surge. The recorded sensor data provided water-level measurements with a very high temporal resolution at surveyed point locations. The resulting dataset was used to generate a time series of storm-surge surfaces that documents the surge dynamics in a new, spatially explicit way. The temporal information contained in the multiple storm-surge surfaces can be visualized in a number of ways to portray how the surge interacted with and was affected by land surface features. Spatially explicit storm-surge products can be useful for a variety of hurricane impact assessments, especially studies of wetland and land changes where knowledge of the extent and magnitude of storm-surge flooding is critical.

  2. AUTOMATIC DETECTION OF STORM DAMAGES USING HIGH-ALTITUDE PHOTOGRAMMETRIC IMAGING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Litkey

    2013-05-01

    Full Text Available The risks of storms that cause damage in forests are increasing due to climate change. Quickly detecting fallen trees, assessing the amount of fallen trees and efficiently collecting them are of great importance for economic and environmental reasons. Visually detecting and delineating storm damage is a laborious and error-prone process; thus, it is important to develop cost-efficient and highly automated methods. Objective of our research project is to investigate and develop a reliable and efficient method for automatic storm damage detection, which is based on airborne imagery that is collected after a storm. The requirements for the method are the before-storm and after-storm surface models. A difference surface is calculated using two DSMs and the locations where significant changes have appeared are automatically detected. In our previous research we used four-year old airborne laser scanning surface model as the before-storm surface. The after-storm DSM was provided from the photogrammetric images using the Next Generation Automatic Terrain Extraction (NGATE algorithm of Socet Set software. We obtained 100% accuracy in detection of major storm damages. In this investigation we will further evaluate the sensitivity of the storm-damage detection process. We will investigate the potential of national airborne photography, that is collected at no-leaf season, to automatically produce a before-storm DSM using image matching. We will also compare impact of the terrain extraction algorithm to the results. Our results will also promote the potential of national open source data sets in the management of natural disasters.

  3. Impacts of storm events on salt marsh sediment dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Castagno, K. A.; Jiménez-Robles, A. M.; Fagherazzi, S.; Donnelly, J. P.

    2016-12-01

    Salt marshes have long been lauded as buffers to storm surges, wind-generated waves, and elevated water levels. Following Redfield's bi-directional model of salt marsh evolution, salt marshes along the eastern coast of the United States keep pace with moderate sea-level rise. Recent geological evidence, however, suggests that some extreme storm events may cause significant marsh erosion. This has major implications for coastal inundation risk to lives and property, as well as the resilience of these coastal wetlands to a changing climate. This study analyzes the relationship between storm intensity and net sediment fluxes in the Virginia Coast Reserve (VCR), a system of salt marshes and coastal bays along the Atlantic side of the Delmarva Peninsula, USA. The study explores the differences in sediment dynamics between tropical cyclones and nor'easters, both of which regularly impact the VCR. To investigate the processes that determine sediment fluxes both between the VCR and open sea and between the different coastal bays of VCR, we used the fully coupled coastal hydrodynamic, sediment transport and wave model Delft3D-SWAN. This work builds on previous sediment composition results based on the framework of the VCR LTER program. During the period from 2009 to 2016, a total of 52 storm events where identified using a Peaks Over Threshold method. For each storm, wind characteristics, water levels, and wave conditions data were obtained from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). A model calibration process achieved good agreement between field data and Delft3D-SWAN results, using water levels inside the VCR and wave height and directions in the closest NOAA buoy to VCR. The results of this study will be useful in determining the response of marsh systems to extreme storm events.

  4. Impacts of global warming on Northern Hemisphere winter storm tracks in the CMIP5 model suite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichler, Timothy Paul; Gaggini, Natalie; Pan, Zaitao

    2013-05-01

    key question in assessing how global warming may affect climate is how it may impact day-to-day weather. To help answer this question, we evaluate the frequency and intensity of northern hemisphere storm tracks in the National Center for Climate Prediction reanalysis I dataset, and the historical, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5 climate scenarios featured in the CMIP5 simulations. We found that a warmer climate resulted in a general decrease in storm frequency in midlatitudes, especially in RCP8.5. In contrast, frequency trends in the reanalysis data reflected an increase in the North Pacific consistent with a shift towards a positive Pacific Decadal Oscillation and more frequent El Niño events post mid-1970s. An examination of frequency and intensity trends in the active storm track regions of the North Pacific and North Atlantic showed that a significant decrease in storm track frequency was evident for RCP8.5. In contrast, intensity trends were dichotomous, with RCP8.5 exhibiting an increase in intensity in the North Atlantic active storm track region and a decrease in intensity in the North Pacific active storm track region. Poleward of these regions, a significant decrease in storm intensity in the North Atlantic and a significant increase in intensity in the North Pacific in RCP8.5 occurred. We also examined the intensity distribution of storms in the active storm track regions of the North Atlantic and North Pacific and determined that the models produced weaker storms with reduced variability relative to reanalysis data regardless of external climate forcing.

  5. Innovations’ Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jakub Tabas

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Innovations currently represent a tool of maintaining the going concern of a business entity and its competitiveness. However, effects of innovations are not infinite and if an innovation should constantly preserve a life of business entity, it has to be a continual chain of innovations, i.e. continual process. Effective live of a single innovation is limited while the limitation is derived especially from industry. The paper provides the results of research on innovations effects in the financial performance of small and medium-sized enterprises in the Czech Republic. Objective of this paper is to determine the length and intensity of the effects of technical innovations in company’s financial performance. The economic effect of innovations has been measured at application of company’s gross production power while the Deviation Analysis has been applied for three years’ time series. Subsequently the Survival Analysis has been applied. The analyses are elaborated for three statistical samples of SMEs constructed in accordance to the industry. The results obtained show significant differences in innovations’ survival within these three samples of enterprises then. The results are quite specific for the industries, and are confronted and discussed with the results of authors’ former research on the issue.

  6. Storm tracking and eScience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Froude, Lizzie

    2009-03-13

    A new 'storm-tracking approach' to analysing the prediction of storms by different forecast systems has recently been developed. This paper provides a brief illustration of the type of results/information that can be obtained using the approach. It also describes in detail how eScience methodologies have been used to help apply the storm-tracking approach to very large datasets.

  7. Moving the Force: Desert Storm and Beyond

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-12-01

    Desert Shield~ Desert Storm, we could have met our airlift deployment requirements 20 to 35 percent faster. ~° Similar analyses of the Somalian Restore...DATE DEC 1994 2. REPORT TYPE 3. DATES COVERED - 4. TITLE AND SUBTITLE Moving The Force: Desert Storm and Beyond 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b...MOVING THE FORCE: Desert Storm and Beyond SCOTT W. CONRAD McNair Paper 32 December 1994 INSTITUTE FOR NATIONAL STRATEGIC STUDIES NATIONAL DEFENSE

  8. Ice storm 1998 : lessons learned

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McCready, J. [Eastern Ontario Model Forest, Kemptville, ON (Canada)

    2006-07-01

    This paper presented details of a partnership formed in response to the ice storm of 1998, which caused extensive damage to trees in woodlots and urban settings in eastern Ontario and western Quebec. The aim of the Ice Storm Forest Recovery Group was to assist in the recovery of eastern forests, collect information on the extent of the damage to trees as well as contribute to the development of assistance programs for woodlot owners and municipalities. In response to the group's request, an initial aerial survey was conducted by the Ontario Ministry of Natural Resources to map the extent of the damage in eastern Ontario, which was followed by a more scientific survey with the Canadian Forest Service through the development of a flying grid pattern to observe the status of trees, followed by extensive ground checks. Damage was variable, depending on tree species, stand age and composition, management practices, wind direction, topography and ice deposition patterns. A summary of the severity of damage indicated that conifers suffered less than hardwoods. Consultants were hired to prepare news releases and extension notes to the public in order to provide information for the caring of trees. Various educational workshops were held which attracted large numbers of landowners and homeowners. A literature review was undertaken to produce a summary of current published knowledge covering the effects of storms and ice damage to trees and forests. Science efforts were published in a series of papers, and financial assistance programs were then organized by governmental agencies. It was concluded that cooperation between all agencies, groups and levels of government is needed in order to coordinate effective emergency strategies. 7 refs., 1 tab., 1 fig.

  9. Local amplification of storm surge by Super Typhoon Haiyan in Leyte Gulf.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mori, Nobuhito; Kato, Masaya; Kim, Sooyoul; Mase, Hajime; Shibutani, Yoko; Takemi, Tetsuya; Tsuboki, Kazuhisa; Yasuda, Tomohiro

    2014-07-28

    Typhoon Haiyan, which struck the Philippines in November 2013, was an extremely intense tropical cyclone that had a catastrophic impact. The minimum central pressure of Typhoon Haiyan was 895 hPa, making it the strongest typhoon to make landfall on a major island in the western North Pacific Ocean. The characteristics of Typhoon Haiyan and its related storm surge are estimated by numerical experiments using numerical weather prediction models and a storm surge model. Based on the analysis of best hindcast results, the storm surge level was 5-6 m and local amplification of water surface elevation due to seiche was found to be significant inside Leyte Gulf. The numerical experiments show the coherent structure of the storm surge profile due to the specific bathymetry of Leyte Gulf and the Philippines Trench as a major contributor to the disaster in Tacloban. The numerical results also indicated the sensitivity of storm surge forecast.

  10. On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo

    2017-01-01

    our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud......The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve...... images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height (H s ) for open sea...

  11. Geomagnetic Storms and Acute Myocardial Infarctions Morbidity in Middle Latitudes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dimitrova, S.; Babayev, E. S.; Mustafa, F. R.; Stoilova, I.; Taseva, T.; Georgieva, K.

    2009-12-01

    Results of collaborative studies on revealing a possible relationship between solar activity (SA) and geomagnetic activity (GMA) and pre-hospital acute myocardial infarction (AMI) morbidity are presented. Studies were based on medical data from Bulgaria and Azerbaijan. Bulgarian data, covering the period from 01.12.1995 to 31.12.2004, concerned daily distribution of number of patients with AMI diagnose (in total 1192 cases) from Sofia Region on the day of admission at the hospital. Azerbaijani data contained 4479 pre-hospital AMI incidence cases for the period 01.01.2003-31.12.2005 and were collected from 21 emergency and first medical aid stations in Grand Baku Area (including Absheron Economical Region with several millions of inhabitants). Data were "cleaned" as much as possible from social and other factors and were subjected to medical and mathematical/statistical analysis. Medical analysis showed reliability of the used data. Method of ANalysis Of VAriance (ANOVA) was applied to check the significance of GMA intensity effect and the type of geomagnetic storms - those caused by magnetic clouds (MC) and by high speed solar wind streams (HSSWS) - on AMI incidences. Relevant correlation coefficients were calculated. Results were outlined for both considered data. Results obtained for the Sofia data showed statistically significant positive correlation between considered GMA indices and AMI occurrence. ANOVA revealed that AMI incidence number was significantly increased from the day before till the day after geomagnetic storms with different intensities. Geomagnetic storms caused by MC were related to significant increase of AMI number in comparison with the storms caused by HSSWS. There was a trend for such different effects even on -1st and +1st day for the period 1995-2004. Results obtained for the Baku data revealed trends similar to those obtained for Sofia data. AMI morbidity increment was observed on the days with higher GMA intensity and after these days

  12. Impacts of ionospheric electric fields on the GPS tropospheric delays during geomagnetic storms in Antarctica

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suparta, W.

    2017-05-01

    This paper aimed to overview the interaction of the thunderstorm with the ionospheric electric fields during major geomagnetic storms in Antarctica through the GPS tropospheric delays. For the purpose of study, geomagnetic activity and electric fields data for the period from 13 to 21 March 2015 representing the St. Patrick’s Day storm is analyzed. To strengthen the analysis, data for the period of 27 October to 1st November 2003 representing for the Halloween storm is also compared. Our analysis showed that both geomagnetic storms were severe (Ap ≥ 100 nT), where the intensity of Halloween storm is double compared to St. Patrick’s Day storm. For the ionospheric electric field, the peaks were dropped to -1.63 mV/m and -2.564 mV/m for St. Patrick and Halloween storms, respectively. At this time, the interplanetary magnetic field Bz component was significantly dropped to -17.31 nT with Ap > 150 nT (17 March 2015 at 19:20 UT) and -26.51 nT with Ap = 300 nT (29 October 2003 at 19:40 UT). For both geomagnetic storms, the electric field was correlated well with the ionospheric activity where tropospheric delays show a different characteristic.

  13. The effects of the 2009 dust storm on emergency admissions to a hospital in Brisbane, Australia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnett, Adrian G.; Fraser, John F.; Munck, Lynette

    2012-07-01

    In September 2009 an enormous dust storm swept across eastern Australia. Dust is potentially hazardous to health as it interferes with breathing, and previous dust storms have been linked to increased risks of asthma and even death. We examined whether the 2009 Australian dust storm changed the volume or characteristics of emergency admissions to hospital. We used an observational study design, using time series analyses to examine changes in the number of admissions, and case-only analyses to examine changes in the characteristics of admissions. The admission data were from the Prince Charles Hospital, Brisbane, between 1 January 2009 and 31 October 2009. There was a 39% increase in emergency admissions associated with the storm (95% confidence interval: 5, 81%), which lasted for just 1 day. The health effects of the storm could not be detected using particulate matter levels. We found no significant change in the characteristics of admissions during the storm; specifically, there was no increase in respiratory admissions. The dust storm had a short-lived impact on emergency hospital admissions. This may be because the public took effective avoidance measures, or because the dust was simply not toxic, being composed mainly of soil. Emergency departments should be prepared for a short-term increase in admissions during dust storms.

  14. Spatial and diurnal variations of storm heights in the East Asia summer monsoon: storm height regimes and large-scale diurnal modulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Myung-Sook; Lee, Myong-In; Kim, Hyerim; Im, Jungho; Yoo, Jung-Moon

    2016-02-01

    This study investigates the spatial and diurnal variation of storm height in the East Asia summer monsoon region using 13-year Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission Precipitation Radar data. Precipitating storms are classified as shallow (10 km) depending the height. Four different regimes are identified to characterize the region: the continental (CT) shallow regime over inland China with elevated terrain, the CT deep over the Chinese Plain, the coastal (CS) middle over the East China Sea and South Sea of Korea, and the CS shallow over the south coastal area of Japan. This regime separation reflects well the distinctive regional difference in the rainfall contribution by each storm type. The occurrence frequencies of shallow, middle, and deep storms exhibit pronounced diurnal variation as well, but with significant differences in the amplitude and phase across the regimes. These lead to a diversity in the diurnal variation of surface rainfall such as bimodal morning and late evening peaks in the two CT regimes and the single morning peak in the two CS regimes. Processes involved in the diurnal variation of storms are different across the regimes, indicating difference in the contributing role of surface heating, large-scale diurnal circulation, and diurnal propagations of convective systems. The storm height also affects the rain intensity. This study highlights that the East Asia summer monsoon has distinctive sub-regional variation of the storm height distribution, thereby providing unique differences in the rainfall amount, intensity, and the diurnal variation.

  15. Proxy records of Holocene storm events in coastal barrier systems: Storm-wave induced markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goslin, Jérôme; Clemmensen, Lars B.

    2017-10-01

    Extreme storm events in the coastal zone are one of the main forcing agents of short-term coastal system behavior. As such, storms represent a major threat to human activities concentrated along the coasts worldwide. In order to better understand the frequency of extreme events like storms, climate science must rely on longer-time records than the century-scale records of instrumental weather data. Proxy records of storm-wave or storm-wind induced activity in coastal barrier systems deposits have been widely used worldwide in recent years to document past storm events during the last millennia. This review provides a detailed state-of-the-art compilation of the proxies available from coastal barrier systems to reconstruct Holocene storm chronologies (paleotempestology). The present paper aims (I) to describe the erosional and depositional processes caused by storm-wave action in barrier and back-barrier systems (i.e. beach ridges, storm scarps and washover deposits), (ii) to understand how storm records can be extracted from barrier and back-barrier sedimentary bodies using stratigraphical, sedimentological, micro-paleontological and geochemical proxies and (iii) to show how to obtain chronological control on past storm events recorded in the sedimentary successions. The challenges that paleotempestology studies still face in the reconstruction of representative and reliable storm-chronologies using these various proxies are discussed, and future research prospects are outlined.

  16. 2016 Guidelines for the management of thyroid storm from The Japan Thyroid Association and Japan Endocrine Society (First edition).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Satoh, Tetsurou; Isozaki, Osamu; Suzuki, Atsushi; Wakino, Shu; Iburi, Tadao; Tsuboi, Kumiko; Kanamoto, Naotetsu; Otani, Hajime; Furukawa, Yasushi; Teramukai, Satoshi; Akamizu, Takashi

    2016-12-30

    Thyroid storm is an endocrine emergency which is characterized by multiple organ failure due to severe thyrotoxicosis, often associated with triggering illnesses. Early suspicion, prompt diagnosis and intensive treatment will improve survival in thyroid storm patients. Because of its rarity and high mortality, prospective intervention studies for the treatment of thyroid storm are difficult to carry out. We, the Japan Thyroid Association and Japan Endocrine Society taskforce committee, previously developed new diagnostic criteria and conducted nationwide surveys for thyroid storm in Japan. Detailed analyses of clinical data from 356 patients revealed that the mortality in Japan was still high (∼11%) and that multiple organ failure and acute heart failure were common causes of death. In addition, multimodal treatment with antithyroid drugs, inorganic iodide, corticosteroids and beta-adrenergic antagonists has been suggested to improve mortality of these patients. Based on the evidence obtained by nationwide surveys and additional literature searches, we herein established clinical guidelines for the management of thyroid storm. The present guideline includes 15 recommendations for the treatment of thyrotoxicosis and organ failure in the central nervous system, cardiovascular system, and hepato-gastrointestinal tract, admission criteria for the intensive care unit, and prognostic evaluation. We also proposed preventive approaches to thyroid storm, roles of definitive therapy, and future prospective trial plans for the treatment of thyroid storm. We hope that this guideline will be useful for many physicians all over the world as well as in Japan in the management of thyroid storm and the improvement of its outcome.

  17. Severe Local Storms Cultural Heritage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gladich, I.; Gallai, I.; Giaiotti, D. B.; Morgan, G. M.; Stel, F.

    2009-09-01

    Local storms always had a deep impact on people communities, mainly because of the severe damage caused, because of their unpredictability and, up to a few years ago, even because of the lack of knowledge and awareness on their physical origin. Because of this large impact on real life and on imagination, people needed and wanted to describe and report the occurrence of these events, giving them suited names. Often, these nouns are related to the myth developed to explain the cause of the events. In this work, a short presentation and description of the popular nouns used to describe severe local storm events in different areas of the World is given. Countries taken into account span from Italy, moving toward Africa and reaching a few communities of Native Americans. The etymology of the names gives interesting information, useful even under the anthropological point of view, on the Culture and Believes of the peoples who adopted them. This research work is the result of an underground activity carried out in the last ten years by the authors, during their contacts with students and researchers coming from different Countries and mainly met at the International Center for Theoretical Physics in Trieste.

  18. A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Taylor

    1994-06-01

    Full Text Available A superposed epoch analysis of geomagnetic storms has been undertaken. The storms are categorised via their intensity (as defined by the Dst index. Storms have also been classified here as either storm sudden commencements (SSCs or storm gradual commencements (SGCs, that is all storms which did not begin with a sudden commencement. The prevailing solar wind conditions defined by the parameters solar wind speed (vsw, density (ρsw and pressure (Psw and the total field and the components of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF during the storms in each category have been investigated by a superposed epoch analysis. The southward component of the IMF, appears to be the controlling parameter for the generation of small SGCs (-100 nT< minimum Dst ≤ -50 nT for ≥ 4 h, but for SSCs of the same intensity solar wind pressure is dominant. However, for large SSCs (minimum Dst ≤ -100 nT for ≥ 4 h the solar wind speed is the controlling parameter. It is also demonstrated that for larger storms magnetic activity is not solely driven by the accumulation of substorm activity, but substantial energy is directly input via the dayside. Furthermore, there is evidence that SSCs are caused by the passage of a coronal mass ejection, whereas SGCs result from the passage of a high speed/ slow speed coronal stream interface. Storms are also grouped by the sign of Bz during the first hour epoch after the onset. The sign of Bz at t = +1 h is the dominant sign of the Bz for ~24 h before the onset. The total energy released during storms for which Bz was initially positive is, however, of the same order as for storms where Bz was initially negative.

  19. Feasibility and safety of catheter ablation of electrical storm in ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dello Russo, Antonio; Casella, Michela; Pelargonio, Gemma; Santangeli, Pasquale; Bartoletti, Stefano; Bencardino, Gianluigi; Al-Mohani, Ghaliah; Innocenti, Ester; Di Biase, Luigi; Avella, Andrea; Pappalardo, Augusto; Carbucicchio, Corrado; Bellocci, Fulvio; Fiorentini, Cesare; Natale, Andrea; Tondo, Claudio

    2016-06-01

    Electrical storm is an emergency in 'implantation of a cardioverter defibrillator' carriers with ischemic dilated cardiomyopathy (DCM) and negatively impacts long-term prognosis. We evaluated the feasibility, safety, and effectiveness of radiofrequency catheter ablation (RFCA) in controlling electrical storm and its impact on survival and ventricular tachycardia/fibrillation recurrence. We enrolled 27 consecutive patients (25 men, age 73.1 ± 6.5 years) with ischemic DCM and an indication to RFCA for drug-refractory electrical storm. The immediate outcome was defined as failure or success, depending on whether the patient's clinical ventricular tachycardia could still be induced after RFCA; electrical storm resolution was defined as no sustained ventricular tachycardia/ventricular fibrillation in the next 7 days. Of the 27 patients, 1 died before RFCA; in the remaining 26 patients, a total of 33 RFCAs were performed. In all 26 patients, RFCA was successful, although in 6/26 patients (23.1%), repeated procedures were needed, including epicardial ablation in 3/26 (11.5%). In 23/26 patients (88.5%), electrical storm resolution was achieved. At a follow-up of 16.7 ± 8.1 months, 5/26 patients (19.2%) had died (3 nonsudden cardiac deaths, 2 noncardiac deaths) and 10/26 patients (38.5%) had ventricular tachycardia recurrence; none had electrical storm recurrence. A worse long-term outcome was associated with lower glomerular filtration rate, wider baseline QRS, and presence of atrial fibrillation before electrical storm onset. In patients with ischemic DCM, RFCA is well tolerated, feasible and effective in the acute management of drug-refractory electrical storm. It is associated with a high rate of absence of sustained ventricular tachycardia episodes over the subsequent 7 days. After successful ablation, long-term outcome was mainly predicted by baseline clinical variables.

  20. nowCOAST's Map Service for NOAA NWS NHC Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Map Information: This nowCOAST map service provides maps depicting the latest official NWS Potential Storm Surge Flooding Map for any significant landfalling...

  1. On hurricane parametric wind and applications in storm surge modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Ning; Chavas, Daniel

    2012-05-01

    This study revisits the parametric modeling of the hurricane surface wind field composed of the storm vortex and the environmental background flow. First, we investigate the parametric representation of the surface background wind by analyzing its empirical relationship with storm movement. A marked deceleration and counter-clockwise rotation of the surface background wind from the storm translation vector is detected, a result predicted by the Ekman theory but rarely applied in wind and surge modeling. Then, we examine the various parameters used to model the wind field and, through numerical simulations, quantify their induced uncertainties in the extreme wind and surge estimates at two coastal sites. Our analyses show that, over the range of accepted values and methods in the literature, the local wind and surge estimates are most sensitive to uncertainties in the surface wind reduction factor and storm wind profile but less sensitive to uncertainties in other wind parameters, such as inflow angle and surface background wind (varying in the observed range). The surge is more sensitive than the wind to uncertainties in the wind parameters, and these sensitivities are comparable to the sensitivity of the surge to the uncertainty in the sea surface drag coefficient. We also find that some commonly used wind parameters unsupported by theory or observations can induce significant errors in the wind and surge estimates. The results of this study provide new insights and references for future hurricane wind and surge analysis.

  2. Storm real-time processing cookbook

    CERN Document Server

    Anderson, Quinton

    2013-01-01

    A Cookbook with plenty of practical recipes for different uses of Storm.If you are a Java developer with basic knowledge of real-time processing and would like to learn Storm to process unbounded streams of data in real time, then this book is for you.

  3. Reconnaissance level study Mississippi storm surge barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Ledden, M.; Lansen, A.J.; De Ridder, H.A.J.; Edge, B.

    2012-01-01

    This paper reports a reconnaissance level study of a storm surge barrier in the Mississippi River. Historical hurricanes have shown storm surge of several meters along the Mississippi River levees up to and upstream of New Orleans. Future changes due to sea level rise and subsidence will further

  4. Luminescence dating of storm-surge sediment

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Cunningham, A.C.

    2011-01-01

    Geological evidence of storm surges has the potential to provide vital information on storm-surge risk. Sediment from the coastal dunes of the Netherlands contains evidence of extreme floods that occurred before reliable measurements of water level began. For these sediments to be useful in

  5. Ionospheric F-Region Storms: Unsolved Problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-06-01

    Heaviside layer by the echo- method , Proc. Inst. Radio Eng., 17, 1513-1522, 1929 [8] Kil, H, and L.J. Paxton, Ionospheric disturbances during the magnetic...ionospheric storms, J. Geophys. Res., 107, 10.1029/2001JA900126, 2002 [24] Rishbeth, H., F-region storms and thermospheric dynamics, J. Geomag. Geoelectr

  6. Space Storm as a Dynamical Phase Transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, J. A.

    2006-12-01

    Fluctuations of the DST index were analyzed for several magnetic storms preceded by more than a week of extremely quiet conditions to establish that there is a rapid and unidirectional change in the Hurst scaling exponent at the time of storm onset. That is, the transition is accompanied by the specific signature of a rapid unidirectional change in the temporal fractal scaling of fluctuations in DST, signaling the formation of a new dynamical phase (or mode) which is considerably more organized than the background state. We compare these results to a model of multifractional Brownian motion and suggest that the relatively sudden change from a less correlated to a more correlated pattern of multiscale fluctuations at storm onset can be characterized in terms of nonequilibrium dynamical phase transitions. Initial results show that a dynamical transition in solar wind VBs is correlated with the storm onset for intense storms, suggesting that the transition observed in DST is of external solar wind origin, rather than internal magnetospheric origin. On the other hand, some results show a dynamical transition in solar wind scaling exponents not matched in DST. As well, we also present results for small storms where there is a strong dynamical transition in DST without a similar changes in the VBs scaling statistics. The results for small storms seem to reduce the importance of the solar wind fluctuations but the evidence for the intense storms seems to point to the solar wind as being responsible for providing the scale free properties in the DST fluctuations.

  7. Extreme Geomagnetic Storms – 1868–2010

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Vennerstrøm, Susanne; Lefèvre, L.; Dumbović, M.

    2016-01-01

    We present the first large statistical study of extreme geomagnetic storms basedon historical data from the time period 1868 – 2010. This article is the first of two companionpapers. Here we describe how the storms were selected and focus on their near-Earth characteristics.The second article...

  8. The Evolution of Hydrocarbons in Saturn's Northern Storm Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjoraker, Gordon; Hesman, B. E.; Achterberg, R. K.; Romani, P. N.

    2012-01-01

    The massive storm at 40N on Saturn that began in December 2010 has produced significant and lasting effects in the northern hemisphere on temperature and species abundances (Fletcher et aL 2011). The northern storm region was observed on several occasions between March 2011 and April 2012 by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS) at a spectral resolution (0.5/cm) which permits the study of trace species in Saturn's stratosphere. During this time period, stratospheric temperatures in regions referred to as "beacons" (warm regions at specific longitudes at the latitude of the storm) became significantly warmer than pre-storm values of 140K, peaking near 220K, and subsequently cooling. These warm temperatures led to greatly enhanced infrared emission due to C4H2, C3H4, C2H2, and C2H6 in the stratosphere as well as the first detection of C2H4 on Saturn in the thermal infrared (Hesman et al. 2012). Using CH4 as a thermometer of Saturn's stratosphere in the beacon regions, we can derive the mixing ratios of each of these molecules. The most common hydrocarbons (C2H2 and C2H6) serve as dynamical tracers on Saturn and their abundances may constrain vertical motion in the stratosphere. All of these hydrocarbons are products of methane photolysis. Since many of the photochemical reactions that produce heavier hydrocarbons such as C4H2 and C3H4 are temperature sensitive, the beacon region provides a natural laboratory for studying these reactions on Saturn. We will discuss the time evolution of the abundances of each of these hydrocarbons from their pre-storm values, through the period of maximum heating , and during the period of cooling that is taking place in Saturn's stratosphere.

  9. Investigation of Geomagnetic Storm Impact on Hourly PPP Static Coordinates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Öǧütcü, Sermet; Kalaycı, İbrahim

    2017-04-01

    This paper investigates the effect of geomagnetic storm on hourly Precise Point Positioning (PPP) static coordinates of IGS stations at mid-latitudes. 12 IGS stations in mid-latitude were chosen to conduct the experiment. These IGS stations were classified as non-cross correlation receiver reporting P1 and P2 (NONCC-P1P2), non-cross correlation receiver reporting C1 and P2 (NONCC-C1P2) and cross-correlation (CC-C1P2) receiver. Two extreme geomagnetic storms (October 29, 2003 Halloween Storm and November 20, 2003) and two geomagnetic quiet days in 2005 (DOY 98, 99) were chosen for this study. The processing was performed by GIPSY/OASIS 6.4 scientific software. After processing, root mean square errors (rms) of north, east and up component were calculated for each station and each day. In parallel, we generate vertical total electron content (VTEC) with 15 second interval for each station to detect small changes in VTEC and ionospheric scintillation during geomagnetic storm. The results indicate that three-dimensional (3D) accuracy of hourly PPP obtained during the geomagnetic storm for CC-P1P2 type of receiver is significantly low comparing the geomagnetic quiet days. When it comes to rms there is no statistically difference was observed between the geomagnetic quiet days and geomagnetic disturbed days for all NONCC-C1P2 and NONCC-C1P2 receivers. As far as outliers are concern, significant increase was observed for the geomagnetic disturbed days comparing with the geomagnetic quiet days.

  10. The role of storm scale, position and movement in controlling urban flood response

    Science.gov (United States)

    ten Veldhuis, Marie-claire; Zhou, Zhengzheng; Yang, Long; Liu, Shuguang; Smith, James

    2018-01-01

    The impact of spatial and temporal variability of rainfall on hydrological response remains poorly understood, in particular in urban catchments due to their strong variability in land use, a high degree of imperviousness and the presence of stormwater infrastructure. In this study, we analyze the effect of storm scale, position and movement in relation to basin scale and flow-path network structure on urban hydrological response. A catalog of 279 peak events was extracted from a high-quality observational dataset covering 15 years of flow observations and radar rainfall data for five (semi)urbanized basins ranging from 7.0 to 111.1 km2 in size. Results showed that the largest peak flows in the event catalog were associated with storm core scales exceeding basin scale, for all except the largest basin. Spatial scale of flood-producing storm events in the smaller basins fell into two groups: storms of large spatial scales exceeding basin size or small, concentrated events, with storm core much smaller than basin size. For the majority of events, spatial rainfall variability was strongly smoothed by the flow-path network, increasingly so for larger basin size. Correlation analysis showed that position of the storm in relation to the flow-path network was significantly correlated with peak flow in the smallest and in the two more urbanized basins. Analysis of storm movement relative to the flow-path network showed that direction of storm movement, upstream or downstream relative to the flow-path network, had little influence on hydrological response. Slow-moving storms tend to be associated with higher peak flows and longer lag times. Unexpectedly, position of the storm relative to impervious cover within the basins had little effect on flow peaks. These findings show the importance of observation-based analysis in validating and improving our understanding of interactions between the spatial distribution of rainfall and catchment variability.

  11. September 2013 Storm and Flood Assessment Report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Walterscheid, J. C. [Los Alamos National Lab. (LANL), Los Alamos, NM (United States)

    2015-12-21

    Between September 10 and 17, 2013, New Mexico and Colorado received a historically large amount of precipitation (Figure 1). This report assesses the damage caused by flooding along with estimated costs to repair the damage at Los Alamos National Laboratory (the Laboratory) on the Pajarito Plateau. Los Alamos County, New Mexico, received between 200% and 600% of the normal precipitation for this time period (Figure 2), and the Laboratory received approximately 450% percent of its average precipitation for September (Figure 3). As a result, the Laboratory was inundated with rain, including the extremely large, greater-than-1000-yr return period event that occurred between September 12 and 13 (Table 1). With saturated antecedent soil conditions from the September 10 storm, when the September 12 to September 13 storm hit, the flooding was disastrous to the Laboratory’s environmental infrastructure, including access roads, gage stations, watershed controls, control measures installed under the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System Permit (hereafter, the Individual Permit), and groundwater monitoring wells (Figures 4 through 21). From September 16 to October 1, 2013, the Laboratory completed field assessments of environmental infrastructure and generated descriptions and estimates of the damage, which are presented in spreadsheets in Attachments 1 to 4 of this report. Section 2 of this report contains damage assessments by watershed, including access roads, gage stations, watershed controls, and control measures installed under the Individual Permit. Section 3 contains damage assessments of monitoring wells by the groundwater monitoring groups as established in the Interim Facility-Wide Groundwater Monitoring Plan for Monitoring Year 2014. Section 4 addresses damage and loss of automated samplers. Section 5 addresses sediment sampling needs, and Section 6 is the summary of estimated recovery costs from the significant rain and flooding during September 2013.

  12. Statistical Change Detection in Dust Storm Frequency Across Arid and Semi-arid Regions of Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, R.; Sadeghi, S.; Sarhadi, A.

    2016-12-01

    Arid and semi-arid regions cover 60% of Iran which are surrendered by two major mountains in the north and west of the country. This central region of Iran not only receives very low amount of rainfall but also suffers from high human induced intense land degradation. These conditions have been leading to frequent dust storms which have been influencing soil erosion and population migration. In this study the spatial and temporal change in dust storm occurrence is investigated over arid and semi-arid region of Iran. The annual number of dust storms was collected from 22 stations for 1951-2010 period and nonparametric methods were used to detect both monotonic trend and change point in these annual time series. The number of dust storm increases from the northern reigns to the south eastern territories where climate conditions are influenced by rainfall reduction and increasing drought frequency. The trend assessment indicate negative trend of dust storm occurrence in the north and increasing trend for the southeastern territories of the region. The change point detection method also indicates the 1970 and 1980 decades have most frequent and significant change points of dust storm appearance over arid and semi-arid regions of Iran. Using Wilcoxon, Levene and Kolmogorov Smirnov tests reveal statistically significant shift in the mean, variance and frequency distribution of dust storm occurrence after the change point.

  13. Quality of life is significantly associated with survival in women with advanced epithelial ovarian cancer: An ancillary data analysis of the NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group (GOG-0218) study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phippen, N T; Secord, A A; Wolf, S; Samsa, G; Davidson, B; Abernethy, A P; Cella, D; Havrilesky, L J; Burger, R A; Monk, B J; Leath, C A

    2017-10-01

    Evaluate association between baseline quality of life (QOL) and changes in QOL measured by FACT-O TOI with progression-free disease (PFS) and overall survival (OS) in advanced epithelial ovarian cancer (EOC). Patients enrolled in GOG-0218 with completed FACT-O TOI assessments at baseline and at least one follow-up assessment were eligible. Baseline FACT-O TOI scores were sorted by quartiles (Q1-4) and outcomes compared between Q1 and Q2-4 with log-rank statistic and multivariate Cox regression adjusting for age, stage, post-surgical residual disease size, and performance status (PS). Trends in FACT-O TOI scores from baseline to the latest follow-up assessment were evaluated for impact on intragroup (Q1 or Q2-4) outcome by log-rank analysis. Of 1152 eligible patients, 283 formed Q1 and 869 formed Q2-4. Mean baseline FACT-O TOI scores were 47.5 for Q1 vs. 74.7 for Q2-4 (P<0.001). Q1 compared to Q2-4 had worse median OS (37.5 vs. 45.6months, P=0.001) and worse median PFS (12.5 vs. 13.1months, P=0.096). Q2-4 patients had decreased risks of disease progression (HR 0.974, 95% CI 0.953-0.995, P=0.018), and death (HR 0.963, 95% CI 0.939-0.987, P=0.003) for each five-point increase in baseline FACT-O TOI. Improving versus worsening trends in FACT-O TOI scores were associated with longer median PFS (Q1: 12.7 vs. 8.6months, P=0.001; Q2-4: 16.7 vs. 11.1months, P<0.001) and median OS (Q1: 40.8 vs. 16months, P<0.001; Q2-4: 54.4 vs. 33.6months, P<0.001). Baseline FACT-O TOI scores were independently prognostic of PFS and OS while improving compared to worsening QOL was associated with significantly better PFS and OS in women with EOC. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Solar-Storm/Lunar Atmosphere Model (SSLAM): An overview of the effort and description of the driving storm environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, W. M.; Halekas, J. S.; Killen, R. M.; Delory, G. T.; Gross, N.; Bleacher, L. V.; Krauss-Varben, D.; Travnicek, P.; Hurley, D.; Stubbs, T. J.; Zimmerman, M. I.; Jackson, T. L.

    2012-10-01

    On 29 April 1998, a coronal mass ejection (CME) was emitted from the Sun that had a significant impact at Earth. The terrestrial magnetosphere became more electrically active during the storm passage. Less explored is the effect of such a storm on an exposed rocky body like our Moon. The solar-storm/lunar atmosphere modeling effort (SSLAM) brings together surface interactions, exosphere, plasma, and surface charging models all run with a common driver - the solar storm and CME passage occurring from 1 to 4 May 1998. We present herein an expanded discussion on the solar driver during the 1-4 May 1998 period that included the passage of an intense coronal mass ejection (CME) that had >10 times the solar wind density and had a compositional component of He++ that exceeded 20%. During this time, the plasma mass flux to the exposed lunar surface increased by over 20 times compared to the nominal solar wind, to a value near 10-13 kg/m2-s. Over a two day CME passage by the Moon, this amount approaches 300 tons of added mass to the Moon in the form of individual proton and helium ions. Such an increase in ion flux should have a profound impact on sputtering loss rates from the surface, since this process scales as the mass, energy, and charge state of the incident ion. Associated loss processes were addressed by SSLAM and will be discussed herein.

  15. Solar-Storm/Lunar Atmosphere Model (SSLAM): An Overview of the Effort and Description of the Driving Storm Environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farrell, W. M.; Halekas, J. S.; Killen, R. M.; Delroy, G. T.; Gross, N.; Bleacher, V; Krauss-Varben, D.; Hurley, D; Zimmerman, M. I.

    2012-01-01

    On 29 April 1998, a coronal mass ejection (CME) was emitted from the Sun that had a significant impact on bodies located at 1 AU. The terrestrial magnetosphere did indeed become more electrically active during the storm passage but an obvious question is the effect of such a storm on an exposed rocky body like our Moon. The solar-storm/lunar atmosphere modeling effort (SSLAM) brings together surface interactions, exosphere, plasma, and surface charging models all run with a common driver - the solar storm and CME passage occurring from 1-4 May 1998. We present herein an expanded discussion on the solar driver during the 1-4 May 1998 period that included the passage of an intense coronal mass ejection (CME) that had> 10 times the solar wind density and had a compositional component of He++ that exceeded 20%. We also provide a very brief overview oflhe SSLAM system layout and overarching results. One primary result is that the CME driver plasma can greatly increase the exospheric content via sputtering, with total mass loss rates that approach 1 kg/s during the 2-day CME passage. By analogy, we suggest that CME-related sputtering increases might also be expected during a CME passage by a near-earth asteroid or at the Mars exobase, resulting in an enhanced loss of material.

  16. Magnetic Storms in October 2003

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panasyuk, M. I.; Solar Extreme Events in 2003 Collaboration SEE-2003; Kuznetsov, S. N.; Lazutin, L. L.; Avdyushin, S. I.; Alexeev, I. I.; Ammosov, P. P.; Antonova, A. E.; Baishev, D. G.; Belenkaya, E. S.; Beletsky, A. B.; Belov, A. V.; Benghin, V. V.; Bobrovnikov, S. Yu.; Bondarenko, V. A.; Boyarchuk, K. A.; Veselovsky, I. S.; Vyushkova, T. Yu.; Gavrilieva, G. A.; Gaidash, S. P.; Ginzburg, E. A.; Denisov, Yu. I.; Dmitriev, A. V.; Zherebtsov, G. A.; Zelenyi, L. M.; Ivanov-Kholodny, G. S.; Kalegaev, V. V.; Kanonidi, Kh. D.; Kleimenova, N. G.; Kozyreva, O. V.; Kolomiitsev, O. P.; Krasheninnikov, I. A.; Krivolutsky, A. A.; Kropotkin, A. P.; Kuminov, A. A.; Leshchenko, L. N.; Mar'in, B. V.; Mitrikas, V. G.; Mikhalev, A. V.; Mullayarov, V. A.; Muravieva, E. A.; Myagkova, I. N.; Petrov, V. M.; Petrukovich, A. A.; Podorolsky, A. N.; Pudovkin, M. I.; Samsonov, S. N.; Sakharov, Ya. A.; Svidsky, P. M.; Sokolov, V. D.; Soloviev, S. I.; Sosnovets, E. N.; Starkov, G. V.; Starostin, L. I.; Tverskaya, L. V.; Teltsov, M. V.; Troshichev, O. A.; Tsetlin, V. V.; Yushkov, B. Yu.

    2004-09-01

    Preliminary results of an analysis of satellite and ground-based measurements during extremely strong magnetic storms at the end of October 2003 are presented, including some numerical modeling. The geosynchronous satellites Ekspress-A2 and Ekspress-A3, and the low-altitude polar satellites Coronas-F and Meteor-3M carried out measurements of charged particles (electrons, protons, and ions) of solar and magnetospheric origin in a wide energy range. Disturbances of the geomagnetic field caused by extremely high activity on the Sun were studied at more than twenty magnetic stations from Lovozero (Murmansk region) to Tixie (Sakha-Yakutia). Unique data on the dynamics of the ionosphere, riometric absorption, geomagnetic pulsations, and aurora observations at mid-latitudes are obtained.

  17. [Cytokine storm in avian influenza].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Us, Dürdal

    2008-04-01

    The most dramatic example of defining the pathogenicity of influenza virus A/H5N1 strains is the higher fatality rate of avian influenza epidemic (>50%) occured in Southeast Asia in 1997 comparing to the pandemic caused by influenza virus A/H1N1 in 1918 (5-10%) which was recorded as the most destructive pandemic in the world. When considering the fatal/total case numbers (208/340) reported by World Health Organization in respect of December 14th, 2007, the mortality rate has now reached to 61 percent. Recent studies have shown that the high fatality rate of avian influenza virus infections is a consequence of an overactive inflammatory response and the severity of infection is closely related with virus-induced cytokine dysregulation. The most important feature of A/H5N1 immunopathogenesis is the appearence of hypercytokinemia ("cytokine storm") which is characterized by the extreme (exaggerated) production and secretion of large numbers and excessive levels of pro-inflammatory cytokines. This phenomenon is blamed on the emergence of lethal clinical symptoms such as extensive pulmonary oedema, acute bronchopneumoniae, alveolar haemorrhage, reactive haemophagocytosis, and acute respiratory distress syndrome, associated with necrosis and tissue destruction. Numerous in vitro, in vivo and clinical studies have pointed out that A/H5N1 viruses are very strong inducers of various cytokines and chemokines [Tumor Necrosis Factor (TNF)-alpha, Interferon (IFN)-gamma, IFN-alpha/beta, Interleukin (IL)-6, IL-1, MIP-1 (Macrophage Inflammatory Protein), MIG (Monokine Induced by IFN-gamma), IP-10 (Interferon-gamma-Inducible Protein), MCP-1 (Monocyte Chemoattractant Protein), RANTES (Regulated on Activation Normal T-cell Expressed and Secreted), IL-8], in both humans and animals. The privileged cells of cytokine storm are macrophages and CD8+ T-lymphocytes, while the primary contributor cytokines are TNF-alpha, IL-6 and IFN-gamma. It has been detected that, mutations of some viral

  18. Numerical Study of Solar Storms from the Sun to Earth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Xueshang; Jiang, Chaowei; Zhou, Yufen

    2017-04-01

    As solar storms are sweeping the Earth, adverse changes occur in geospace environment. How human can mitigate and avoid destructive damages caused by solar storms becomes an important frontier issue that we must face in the high-tech times. It is of both scientific significance to understand the dynamic process during solar storm's propagation in interplanetary space and realistic value to conduct physics-based numerical researches on the three-dimensional process of solar storms in interplanetary space with the aid of powerful computing capacity to predict the arrival times, intensities, and probable geoeffectiveness of solar storms at the Earth. So far, numerical studies based on magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) have gone through the transition from the initial qualitative principle researches to systematic quantitative studies on concrete events and numerical predictions. Numerical modeling community has a common goal to develop an end-to-end physics-based modeling system for forecasting the Sun-Earth relationship. It is hoped that the transition of these models to operational use depends on the availability of computational resources at reasonable cost and that the models' prediction capabilities may be improved by incorporating the observational findings and constraints into physics-based models, combining the observations, empirical models and MHD simulations in organic ways. In this talk, we briefly focus on our recent progress in using solar observations to produce realistic magnetic configurations of CMEs as they leave the Sun, and coupling data-driven simulations of CMEs to heliospheric simulations that then propagate the CME configuration to 1AU, and outlook the important numerical issues and their possible solutions in numerical space weather modeling from the Sun to Earth for future research.

  19. More intense Mediterranean wind storms in a changing climate?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nissen, Katrin M.; Leckebusch, Gregor C.; Pinto, Joaquim G.; Renggli, Dominik; Ulbrich, Uwe

    2010-05-01

    This study examines cyclones causing extreme wind storms affecting the Mediterranean region under present-day and future climate conditions. An ensemble of 7 coupled ocean atmosphere simulations using the ECHAM5-OM1 model is analysed: 3 present-day climate integrations, 3 integrations driven by the SRES A1B greenhouse gas scenario and 1 integration driven by the SRES A2 forcing scenario. Extreme wind events are defined based on the identification of wind clusters featuring wind speeds exceeding the local 98th percentile and tracked using a nearest neighbour approach. The wind tracks are then matched to the associated cyclone based on a) the distance between the wind track and the cyclone core and b) the cyclone's strength. The intensity of an extreme wind event is expressed by a storm severity index, which takes both area and duration of its extreme wind speeds into account. All four climate change integrations show a significant decrease in the total number of cyclones over the Mediterranean region. Accordingly, the number of extreme wind tracks also decreases over most of the Mediterranean Basin. Only some simulations show a small increase in the number of extreme wind events over northern Italy, as part of a positive trend over Central Europe which extends southwards. In spite of the reduction in total numbers, the intensity of the wind storm events in the future scenario integrations is higher than for the 20th century simulations, particularly in terms of the standard deviation of the storm severity index. All 4 future scenario integrations feature several individual events with intensities exceeding the most extreme event in any of the present-day climate integrations. Case studies are presented to examine the characteristics of the cyclones associated with these extraordinary storms, and the factors favouring their development in the scenario integrations.

  20. Simulation and 'TWINS Observations of the 22 July 2009 Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fok, Mei-Ching; Buzulukova, Natalia Y.; Chen, Sheng-Hsien; Valek, Phil; Goldstein, Jerry; McComas, David

    2010-01-01

    TWINS is the first mission to perform stereo imaging of the Earth's ring current. The magnetic storm on 22 July 2009 is the largest storm observed since TWINS began routine stereo imaging in June 2008. On 22 July 2009, the Dst dropped to nearly -80nT at 7:00 and 10:00 UT. During the main phase and at the peak of the storm, TWINS 1 and 2 were near apogee and moving from pre-dawn to post-dawn local time. The energetic neutral atom (ENA) imagers on the 2 spacecraft captured the storm intensification and the formation of the partial ring current. The peak of the ENA emissions was seen in the midnight-to-dawn local-time sector. The development of this storm has been simulated using the Comprehensive Ring Current Model (CRCM) to understand and interpret the observed signatures. We perform CRCM runs with constant and time-varying magnetic field. The model calculations are validated by comparing the simulated ENA and ion flux intensities with TWINS ENA images and in-situ ion data from THEMIS satellites. Simulation with static magnetic field produces a strong shielding electric field that skews the ion drift trajectories toward dawn. The model's corresponding peak ENA emissions are always eastward than those in the observed TWINS images. On the other hand, simulation with a dynamic magnetic field gives better spatial agreements with both ENA and insitu particle data, suggesting that temporal variations of the geomagnetic field exert a significant influence upon global ring current ion dynamics.

  1. Simulation and Twins Observations of the 22 July 2009 Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fok, M.-C.; Buzulukova, N.; Chen, S.-H.; Valek, P. W.; Goldstein, J.; McComas, D. J.

    2011-01-01

    TWINS is the first mission to perform stereo imaging of the Earth's ring current. The magnetic storm on 22 July 2009 was at the time the largest storm observed since TWINS began routine stereo imaging in June 2008. On 22 July 2009, the Dst dropped to nearly .80 nT at 0700 and 1000 UT. During the main phase, and at the peak of the storm, TWINS 1 and 2 were near apogee and moving between predawn and postdawn local time. The energetic neutral atom (ENA) imagers on the two spacecraft captured the storm intensification and the formation of the partial ring current. The peak of the high-altitude ENA emissions was seen in the midnight-to-dawn local time sector. The development of this storm has been simulated using the comprehensive ring current model (CRCM) to understand and interpret the observed signatures. We perform CRCM runs with constant and time-varying magnetic field. The model calculations are validated by comparing the simulated ENA and ion flux intensities with TWINS ENA images and in situ ion data from a THEMIS satellite. Simulation with a static magnetic field produces a strong shielding electric field that skews the ion drift trajectories toward dawn. The model's corresponding peak ENA emissions are always more eastward than those in the observed TWINS images. On the other hand, the simulation with a dynamic magnetic field gives better spatial agreement with both ENA and in situ particle data, suggesting that temporal variations of the geomagnetic field exert a significant influence upon global ring current ion dynamics.

  2. Predicting severe winter coastal storm damage

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hondula, David M; Dolan, Robert, E-mail: hondula@virginia.edu [Department of Environmental Sciences, University of Virginia, PO Box 400123, Charlottesville, VA 22903 (United States)

    2010-07-15

    Over the past 40 years residents of, and visitors to, the North Carolina coastal barrier islands have experienced the destructive forces of several 'named' extratropical storms. These storms have caused large-scale redistributions of sand and loss of coastal structures and infrastructure. While most of the population living on the islands are familiar with the wintertime storms, the damage and scars of the 'super northeasters'-such as the Ash Wednesday storm of 7 March 1962, and the Halloween storm of 1989-are slipping away from the public's memory. In this research we compared the damage zones of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm, as depicted on aerial photographs taken after the storm, with photos taken of the same areas in 2003. With these high-resolution aerial photos we were able to estimate the extent of new development which has taken place along the Outer Banks of North Carolina since 1962. Three damage zones were defined that extend across the islands from the ocean landward on the 1962 aerial photos: (1) the zone of almost total destruction on the seaward edge of the islands where the storm waves break; (2) the zone immediately inland where moderate structural damage occurs during severe storms; and (3) the zone of flood damage at the landward margin of the storm surge and overwash. We considered the rate of coastal erosion, the rate of development, and increases in property values as factors which may contribute to changing the financial risk for coastal communities. In comparing the values of these four factors with the 1962 damage data, we produced a predicted dollar value for storm damage should another storm of the magnitude of the 1962 Ash Wednesday storm occur in the present decade. This model also provides an opportunity to estimate the rate of increase in the potential losses through time as shoreline erosion continues to progressively reduce the buffer between the development and the edge of the sea. Our data suggest that the

  3. The effect of sand storms on acute asthma in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdullah A Alangari

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Major sand storms are frequent in the Middle East. This study aims to investigate the role of air particulate matter (PM level in acute asthma in children in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Methods: An aerosol spectrometer was used to evaluate PM 1000 μg/m 3 , representing major sand storms, plus the following 5 days and other days with PM 10 < 1000 μg/m 3 . Conclusion: Sand storms, even major ones, had no significant impact on acute asthma exacerbations in children in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. The very high levels of PM, however, deserve further studying especially of their long-term effects.

  4. The application of microtextural and heavy mineral analysis to discriminate between storm and tsunami deposits

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Pedro J.M.; Gelfenbaum, Guy R.; Dawson, Sue; La selle, Seanpaul; Milne, F; Cascalho, J.; Ponte Lira, C.; Andrade, C.; Freitas, M. C.; Jaffe, Bruce E.

    2017-01-01

    Recent work has applied microtextural and heavy mineral analyses to sandy storm and tsunami deposits from Portugal, Scotland, Indonesia and the USA. We looked at the interpretation of microtextural imagery (scanning electron microscopy) of quartz grains and heavy mineral compositions. We consider inundation events of different chronologies and sources (the AD 1755 Lisbon and 2004 Indian Ocean tsunamis, the Great Storm of 11 January 2005 in Scotland, and Hurricane Sandy in 2012) that affected contrasting coastal and hinterland settings with different regional oceanographic conditions. Storm and tsunami deposits were examined along with potential source sediments (alluvial, beach, dune and nearshore sediments) to determine provenance.Results suggest that tsunami deposits typically exhibit a significant spatial variation in grain sizes, microtextures and heavy minerals. Storm deposits show less variability, especially in vertical profiles. Tsunami and storm quartz grains had more percussion marks and fresh surfaces compared to potential source material. Moreover, in the studied cases, tsunami samples had fewer fresh surfaces than storm deposits.Heavy mineral assemblages are typically site-specific. The concentration of heavy minerals decreases upwards in tsunamigenic units, whereas storm sediments show cyclic concentrations of heavy minerals, reflected in the laminations observed macroscopically in the deposits.

  5. The value of wetlands in protecting southeast louisiana from hurricane storm surges.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edward B Barbier

    Full Text Available The Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 and Hurricanes Katrina and Rita in 2005 have spurred global interest in the role of coastal wetlands and vegetation in reducing storm surge and flood damages. Evidence that coastal wetlands reduce storm surge and attenuate waves is often cited in support of restoring Gulf Coast wetlands to protect coastal communities and property from hurricane damage. Yet interdisciplinary studies combining hydrodynamic and economic analysis to explore this relationship for temperate marshes in the Gulf are lacking. By combining hydrodynamic analysis of simulated hurricane storm surges and economic valuation of expected property damages, we show that the presence of coastal marshes and their vegetation has a demonstrable effect on reducing storm surge levels, thus generating significant values in terms of protecting property in southeast Louisiana. Simulations for four storms along a sea to land transect show that surge levels decline with wetland continuity and vegetation roughness. Regressions confirm that wetland continuity and vegetation along the transect are effective in reducing storm surge levels. A 0.1 increase in wetland continuity per meter reduces property damages for the average affected area analyzed in southeast Louisiana, which includes New Orleans, by $99-$133, and a 0.001 increase in vegetation roughness decreases damages by $24-$43. These reduced damages are equivalent to saving 3 to 5 and 1 to 2 properties per storm for the average area, respectively.

  6. Two types of geomagnetic storms and relationship between Dst and AE indexes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shadrina, Lyudmila P.

    2017-10-01

    The study of the relationship between Dst and AE indices of the geomagnetic field and its manifestation in geomagnetic storms in the XXIII solar cycle was carried out. It is shown that geomagnetic storms are divided into two groups according to the ratio of the amplitude of Ds index decrease to the sum of the AE index during the main phase of the storm. For the first group it is characteristic that for small depressions of the Dst index, significant amounts of the AE index are observed. Most often these are storms with a gradual beginning and a long main phase associated with recurrent solar wind streams. Storms of the second group differ in large amplitudes of Dst index decrease, shorter duration of main phase and small amounts of AE-index. Usually these are sporadic geomagnetic storms with a sudden commencement caused by interplanetary disturbances of the CME type. The storms of these two types differ also in their geoeffects, including the effect on human health.

  7. Measured winter performance of storm windows

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Klems, Joseph H.

    2002-08-23

    Direct comparison measurements were made between various prime/storm window combinations and a well-weatherstripped, single-hung replacement window with a low-E selective glazing. Measurements were made using an accurate outdoor calorimetric facility with the windows facing north. The doublehung prime window was made intentionally leaky. Nevertheless, heat flows due to air infiltration were found to be small, and performance of the prime/storm combinations was approximately what would be expected from calculations that neglect air infiltration. Prime/low-E storm window combinations performed very similarly to the replacement window. Interestingly, solar heat gain was not negligible, even in north-facing orientation.

  8. Storm-wave trends in Mexican waters of the Gulf of Mexico and Caribbean Sea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    E. Ojeda

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Thirty-year time series of hindcast wave data were analysed for 10 coastal locations along the eastern Mexican coast to obtain information about storm events occurring in the region, with the goal of examining the possible presence of interannual trends in the number of storm-wave events and their main features (wave height, duration and energy content. The storms were defined according to their significant wave height and duration, and the events were classified as related to either tropical cyclones or Norte events. The occurrence and characteristics of both types of events were analysed independently. There is no statistically significant change in the number of storm-wave events related to Nortes or their characteristics during the study period. However, there is a subtle increase in the number of events related to tropical cyclones in the western Caribbean region and a more evident increase in wave height and energy content of these events.

  9. Comparisons of hurricane-induced storm surge models and their operational use

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, J.; Gay, P.; Rigney, J. P.; Doody, M.

    2010-12-01

    The most devastating hazard to human life, habitat and property associated with hurricanes is due to storm surge. The US Navy is often called upon to render humanitarian assistance and aid in disaster recovery in the wake of storm surge events. It is imperative, therefore, that the US Navy, as well as other agencies responsible for national security and safeguarding life and property, evaluate the options available for improvements to operational modeling capabilities. Improvement of storm surge forecast skill has advanced significantly during the past couple of decades as a result of finer resolution, more robust physics, and the inclusion of wave setup and wave-current interaction. Current storm surge models used by United States government agencies, the SLOSH model used by the National Hurricane Center, PCTides by the Naval Oceanographic Office (NAVOCEANO), and ADCIRC by the US Army Corps of Engineers, have several drawbacks such as neglect of tides, wave effects, and insufficient spatial resolution. The purpose of this study is to evaluate and compare available hurricane-induced storm surge models in order to inform the selection of the optimal storm surge model for operational use at NAVOCEANO. This will involve investigation of operational capability and forecast skill of SLOSH, PCTides and ADCIRC, as well as several other storm surge models including CH3D-SSMS, Delft3D and FVCOM. The initial phase, presented in this poster, will entail a literature review to determine and summarize the recent and current state of storm-surge model comparisons in the scientific, industry, and government communities. Consideration will be given to the relative importance of improved inputs to the models (wind-fields and storm track/intensity and associated hurricane prediction models) as compared with model selection.

  10. Coastal Storm Surge Analysis: Storm Surge Results. Report 5: Intermediate Submission No. 3

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-11-01

    storm surge stillwater elevations for all Flood Insurance Studies in the study area, and serve as the basis for new coastal hazard analyses and...parametric relation- ships, and do not assume parameter independence. Thus, the EST is “distribution free” and nonparametric . EST is a statistical...simulations is used to develop frequency relationships for any storm response as a function of input parameters that are descriptive of the storm

  11. Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) Storm Wallets

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) is responsible for typhoon forecasts and warnings for the Western Pacific and Indian Ocean basins. After each storm, the JTWC...

  12. [Biotechnology for purifying surface storm waters].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dul'herov, O M; Kachur, T L; Nud'ha, A Iu

    2001-01-01

    A possibility of purification of the surface storm drains from petroleum has been shown. The developed extensive biotechnology is based on the use of the preparation "Desna"--an active destructor of hydrocarbons. The application of the biotechnology at the plants for treatment of the surface storm waters from the industrial zone Telychka of the city of Kyiv has allowed the content of petroleum in water dropped to the Dnieper to be constantly reduced 50-100 times.

  13. Space storm as a phase transition

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wanliss, J. A.; Dobias, P.

    2007-04-01

    Fluctuations of the SYM-H index were analyzed for several space storms preceded by more than a week of extremely quiet conditions to establish that there was a rapid and unidirectional change in the Hurst scaling exponent at the time of storm onset. That is, the transition was accompanied by the specific signature of a rapid unidirectional change in the temporal fractal scaling of fluctuations in SYM-H, signaling the formation of a new dynamical phase (or mode) which was considerably more organized than the background state. We compare these results to a model of multifractional Brownian motion and suggest that the relatively sudden change from a less correlated to a more correlated pattern of multiscale fluctuations at storm onset can be characterized in terms of nonequilibrium dynamical phase transitions. The results show that a dynamical transition in solar wind VB is correlated with the storm onset for intense storms, suggesting that the dynamical transition observed in SYM-H is of external solar wind origin, rather than internal magnetospheric origin. However, some results showed a dynamical transition in solar wind scaling exponents not matched by similar transitions in SYM-H. In other instances, we observed some small storms where there was a strong dynamical transition in SYM-H without similar changes in the VB scaling statistics, suggesting that changes were due to internal magnetospheric processes. In summary, the results for intense storms points to the solar wind as being responsible for providing the scale free properties in the SYM-H fluctuations but the evidence for small storms clearly limit the importance of the solar wind fluctuations; their interaction is more complex than simple causality.

  14. Lightning in tornadic storms: A review

    Science.gov (United States)

    MacGorman, Donald R.

    There have been many reports of unusual lightning characteristics in tornadic storms. For example, eyewitnesses have reported scorching beneath tornado funnels, a steady or rapidly oscillating glow inside funnels, rapidly recurring small patches of light on the side of the thunderstorm, or unusually high or low flash rates [e.g., Church and Barnhart, 1979; Vaughan and Vonnegut, 1976; Vonnegut and Weyer, 1966]. It is difficult, however, to quantify relationships between lightning and tornadic storms from these eyewitness reports.

  15. Ionospheric storm effects at subauroral latitudes: A case study

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Proelss, G.W. (Univ. Bonn (West Germany)); Brace, L.H.; Mayr, H.G. (Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD (USA)); Carignan, G.R.; Killeen, T.L. (Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor (USA)); Klobuchar, J.A. (Geophysics Lab., Hanscom AFB, MA (USA))

    1991-02-01

    An attempt is made to classify ionospheric storm effects at subauroral latitudes according to their presumed origin. The storm of December 7/8, 1982, serves as an example. It is investigated using ionosonde, electron content, and DE 2 satellite data. The following effects are distinguished: (1) positive storm effects caused by traveling atmospheric disturbances, (2) positive storm effects caused by changes in the large-scale thermospheric wind circulation, (3) positive storm effects caused by the expansion of the polar ionization enhancement, (4) negative storm effects caused by perturbations of the neutral gas composition, and (5) negative storm effects caused by the equatorward displacement of the trough region.

  16. Trace Species Identified in Saturn's Northern Storm Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bjoraker, Gordon L.; Hesman, B. E.; Achterberg, R. K.

    2011-01-01

    The massive storm at 40degN on Saturn that began in December 2010 has produced significant and lasting effects in the northern hemisphere on temperature and species abundances [I}. The northern storm region was observed at 0.5/cm spectral resolution in March 2011 by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS). Temperatures in the stratosphere as high as 190 K were derived from CIRS spectra in warm regions referred to as "beacons". Other longitudes exhibit cold temperatures in the upper troposphere. These unusual conditions allow us to identify rare species such as C4H2, C3H4, and CO2 in the stratosphere, as well as to measure changes in the abundance of phosphine (PH3) in the troposphere. Phosphine is a disequilibrium species whose abundance is a tracer of upwelling from the deep atmosphere.

  17. Total Lightning Activity Associated with Tornadic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis; Hodanish, Stephen; Sharp, David; Williams, Earle; Boldi, Bob; Matlin, Anne; Weber, Mark

    1999-01-01

    Severe storms often have high flash rates (in excess of one flash per second) and are dominated by intracloud lightning activity. In addition to the extraordinary flash rates, there is a second distinguishing lightning characteristic of severe storms that seems to be important. When the total lightning history is examined, one finds sudden increases in the lightning rate, which we refer to as lightning "jumps," that precede the occurrence of severe weather by ten or more minutes. These jumps are typically 30-60 flashes/min, and are easily identified as anomalously large derivatives in the flash rate. This relationship is associated with updraft intensification and updraft strength is an important factor in storm severity (through the accumulation of condensate aloft and the stretching of vorticity). In several cases, evidence for diminishment of midlevel rotation and the descent of angular momentum from aloft is present prior to the appearance of the surface tornado. Based on our experience with severe and tornadic storms in Central Florida, we believe the total lightning may augment the more traditional use of NEXRAD radars and storm spotters. However, a more rigorous relation of these jumps to storm kinematics is needed if we are to apply total lightning in a decision tree that leads to improved warning lead times and decreased false alarm rates.

  18. Non-storm water discharges technical report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mathews, S.

    1994-07-01

    Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) submitted a Notice of Intent to the California State Water Resources Control Board (hereafter State Board) to discharge storm water associated with industrial activities under the California General Industrial Activity Storm Water National Pollutant Elimination System Discharge Permit (hereafter General Permit). As required by the General Permit, LLNL provided initial notification of non-storm water discharges to the Central Valley Regional Water Quality Control Board (hereafter Regional Board) on October 2, 1992. Additional findings and progress towards corrective actions were reported in subsequent annual monitoring reports. LLNL was granted until March 27, 1995, three years from the Notice of Intent submission date, to eliminate or permit the non-storm water discharges. On May 20, 1994, the Regional Board issued Waste Discharge Requirements (WDR Board Order No. 94-131, NPDES No. CA0081396) to LLNL for discharges of non-contact cooling tower wastewater and storm water related to industrial activities. As a result of the issuance of WDR 94-131, LLNL rescinded its coverage under the General Permit. WDR 94-131 allowed continued non-storm water discharges and requested a technical report describing the discharges LLNL seeks to permit. For the described discharges, LLNL anticipates the Regional Board will either waive Waste Discharge Requirements as allowed for in The Water Quality Control Plan for the California Regional Water Quality Control Board, Central Valley Region (hereafter Basin Plan) or amend Board Order 94-131 as appropriate.

  19. Subtropical Dust Storms and Downslope Wind Events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pokharel, Ashok Kumar; Kaplan, Michael L.; Fiedler, Stephanie

    2017-10-01

    We performed detailed mesoscale observational analyses and Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulations to study the terrain-induced downslope winds that generated dust-emitting winds at the beginning of three strong subtropical dust storms in three distinctly different regions of North Africa and the Arabian Peninsula. We revisit the Harmattan dust storm of 2 March 2004, the Saudi dust storm of 9 March 2009, and the Bodélé Depression dust storm of 8 December 2011 and use high-resolution WRF modeling to assess the dynamical processes during the onset of the storms in more depth. Our results highlight the generation of terrain-induced downslope winds in response to the transition of the atmospheric flow from a subcritical to supercritical state in all three cases. These events precede the unbalanced adjustment processes in the lee of the mountain ranges that produced larger-scale dust aerosol mobilization and transport. We see that only the higher-resolution data sets can resolve the mesoscale processes, which are mainly responsible for creating strong low-level terrain-induced downslope winds leading to the initial dust storms.

  20. Deuterium in North Atlantic storm tops

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smith, Ronald B.

    1992-01-01

    During the ERICA project in 1989, ice crystals were collected from the tops of two winter storms and one broad cirrus cloud. Deuterium concentration in the storm ice samples, together with a model of isotope fractionation, are used to determine the temperature where the ice was formed. Knowledge of the ice formation temperature allows us to determine whether the ice has fallen or been lofted to the altitude of collection. In both storms, the estimated fall distance decreases upward. In the 21 January storm, the fall distance decreases to zero at the cloud top. In the 23 January storm, the fall distance decreases to zero at a point 2 km below the cloud top and appears to become negative above, indicating lofted ice. Cloud particle data from the cloud tops show an ice-to-vapor ratio greater than one and indicate the presence of particles with small terminal velocities; both observations support the idea of ice lofting. The satellite-derived cloud tops lie well below the actual cloud top (e.g., 2.5 km below on 23 January), indicating that the lofted ice in winter storms may not be detectable from space using IR radiance techniques. A comparison of deuterium in cloud-top ice and clear-air vapor suggests that even in winter, when vertical air motions are relatively weak, lofted ice crystals are the dominant source of water vapor in the upper troposphere.

  1. Spatial Variation in Storm Surge in the Strait of Georgia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soontiens, N. K.; Allen, S. E.; Latornell, D.; Le Souef, K.; Machuca, I.

    2014-12-01

    The Strait of Georgia is a strongly stratified, deep body of water located between Vancouver Island and the mainland of British Columbia and is connected to the Pacific Ocean via the Strait of Juan de Fuca to the south and Johnstone Strait to the north. It is on average 220 km in length and 30 km wide and its maximum depth is 420 m. During the winter months, coastal communities in the Strait of Georgia are at risk to flooding caused by storm surges, a natural hazard that occurs when a strong wind storm with low atmospheric pressure coincides with an unusually high tide. This study presents storm surge hindcasts of significant events between 2006 and 2009 using a numerical model of the Straits of Georgia, Juan de Fuca, Johnstone and Puget Sound (together the Salish Sea). The model is based on the Nucleus for European Modelling of the Ocean (NEMO) in a regional configuration. Realistic stratification is produced by including input from the surrounding rivers. A discussion on the sensitivity of modelled surge amplitude to open boundary conditions and atmospheric forcing will be presented. As barotropic models have previously shown, the surge entering the domain from the Pacific Ocean contributes most significantly. Surge amplitudes are found to be greater within the Strait of Georgia than those in the Strait of Juan de Fuca. Local wind patterns cause spatial variations in the strength of the surge in the Strait of Georgia, generally leading to stronger surges on the Mainland side of the Strait.

  2. Dynamic auroral storms on Saturn as observed by the Hubble Space Telescope.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, J D; Badman, S V; Baines, K H; Brown, R H; Bunce, E J; Clarke, J T; Cowley, S W H; Crary, F J; Dougherty, M K; Gérard, J-C; Grocott, A; Grodent, D; Kurth, W S; Melin, H; Mitchell, D G; Pryor, W R; Stallard, T S

    2014-05-28

    We present observations of significant dynamics within two UV auroral storms observed on Saturn using the Hubble Space Telescope in April/May 2013. Specifically, we discuss bursts of auroral emission observed at the poleward boundary of a solar wind-induced auroral storm, propagating at ∼330% rigid corotation from near ∼01 h LT toward ∼08 h LT. We suggest that these are indicative of ongoing, bursty reconnection of lobe flux in the magnetotail, providing strong evidence that Saturn's auroral storms are caused by large-scale flux closure. We also discuss the later evolution of a similar storm and show that the emission maps to the trailing region of an energetic neutral atom enhancement. We thus identify the auroral form with the upward field-aligned continuity currents flowing into the associated partial ring current.

  3. Low-e Storm Windows: Market Assessment and Pathways to Market Transformation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cort, Katherine A.

    2013-06-08

    Field studies sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) have shown that the use of low-e storm windows can lead to significant heating and cooling energy savings in residential homes. This study examines the market for low-e storm windows based on market data, case studies, and recent experience with weatherization deployment programs. It uses information from interviews conducted with DOE researchers and industry partners involved in case studies and early deployment efforts related to low-e storm windows. In addition, this study examines potential barriers to market acceptance, assesses the market and energy savings potential, and identifies opportunities to transform the market for low-e storm windows and overcome market adoption barriers.

  4. easySTORM: a robust, lower-cost approach to localisation and TIRF microscopy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwakwa, Kwasi; Savell, Alexander; Davies, Timothy; Munro, Ian; Parrinello, Simona; Purbhoo, Marco A; Dunsby, Chris; Neil, Mark A A; French, Paul M W

    2016-09-01

    TIRF and STORM microscopy are super-resolving fluorescence imaging modalities for which current implementations on standard microscopes can present significant complexity and cost. We present a straightforward and low-cost approach to implement STORM and TIRF taking advantage of multimode optical fibres and multimode diode lasers to provide the required excitation light. Combined with open source software and relatively simple protocols to prepare samples for STORM, including the use of Vectashield for non-TIRF imaging, this approach enables TIRF and STORM imaging of cells labelled with appropriate dyes or expressing suitable fluorescent proteins to become widely accessible at low cost. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Biophotonics published by WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  5. The Storm Time Evolution of the Ionospheric Disturbance Plasma Drifts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Ruilong; Liu, Libo; Le, Huijun; Chen, Yiding; Kuai, Jiawei

    2017-11-01

    In this paper, we use the C/NOFS and ROCSAT-1 satellites observations to analyze the storm time evolution of the disturbance plasma drifts in a 24 h local time scale during three magnetic storms driven by long-lasting southward IMF Bz. The disturbance plasma drifts during the three storms present some common features in the periods dominated by the disturbance dynamo. The newly formed disturbance plasma drifts are upward and westward at night, and downward and eastward during daytime. Further, the disturbance plasma drifts are gradually evolved to present significant local time shifts. The westward disturbance plasma drifts gradually migrate from nightside to dayside. Meanwhile, the dayside downward disturbance plasma drifts become enhanced and shift to later local time. The local time shifts in disturbance plasma drifts are suggested to be mainly attributed to the evolution of the disturbance winds. The strong disturbance winds arisen around midnight can constantly corotate to later local time. At dayside the westward and equatorward disturbance winds can drive the F region dynamo to produce the poleward and westward polarization electric fields (or the westward and downward disturbance drifts). The present results indicate that the disturbance winds corotated to later local time can affect the local time features of the disturbance dynamo electric field.

  6. Elusive Ethylene Detected in Saturns Northern Storm Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hesman, B. E.; Bjoraker, G. L.; Sada, P. V.; Achterberg, R. K.; Jennings, D. E.; Romani, P. N.; Lunsford, A. W.; Fletcher, L. N.; Boyle, R. J.; Simon-Miller, A. A.; hide

    2013-01-01

    The massive eruption at 40 deg. N (planetographic latitude) on Saturn in 2010 December has produced significant and lasting effects in the northern hemisphere on temperature and species abundances. The northern storm region was observed on many occasions in 2011 by Cassini's Composite Infrared Spectrometer (CIRS). In 2011 May, temperatures in the stratosphere greater than 200 K were derived from CIRS spectra in the regions referred to as "beacons" (warm regions in the stratosphere). Ethylene has been detected in the beacon region in Saturn's northern storm region using CIRS. Ground-based observations using the high-resolution spectrometer Celeste on the McMath-Pierce Telescope on 2011 May 15 were used to confirm the detection and improve the altitude resolution in the retrieved profile. The derived ethylene profile from the CIRS data gives a C2H4 mole fraction of 5.9 +/- 4.5 x 10(exp -7) at 0.5 mbar, and from Celeste data it gives 2.7 +/- 0.45 x 10(exp -6) at 0.1 mbar. This is two orders of magnitude higher than the amount measured in the ultraviolet at other latitudes prior to the storm. It is also much higher than predicted by photochemical models, indicating that perhaps another production mechanism is required or a loss mechanism is being inhibited.

  7. Increased rainfall volume from future convective storms in the US

    Science.gov (United States)

    Prein, Andreas F.; Liu, Changhai; Ikeda, Kyoko; Trier, Stanley B.; Rasmussen, Roy M.; Holland, Greg J.; Clark, Martyn P.

    2017-12-01

    Mesoscale convective system (MCS)-organized convective storms with a size of 100 km have increased in frequency and intensity in the USA over the past 35 years1, causing fatalities and economic losses2. However, their poor representation in traditional climate models hampers the understanding of their change in the future3. Here, a North American-scale convection-permitting model which is able to realistically simulate MSCs4 is used to investigate their change by the end-of-century under RCP8.5 (ref. 5). A storm-tracking algorithm6 indicates that intense summertime MCS frequency will more than triple in North America. Furthermore, the combined effect of a 15-40% increase in maximum precipitation rates and a significant spreading of regions impacted by heavy precipitation results in up to 80% increases in the total MCS precipitation volume, focussed in a 40 km radius around the storm centre. These typically neglected increases substantially raise future flood risk. Current investments in long-lived infrastructures, such as flood protection and water management systems, need to take these changes into account to improve climate-adaptation practices.

  8. Polarimetric radar characteristics of storms with and without lightning activity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mattos, Enrique V.; Machado, Luiz A. T.; Williams, Earle R.; Albrecht, Rachel I.

    2016-12-01

    This paper analyzes the cloud microphysics in different layers of storms as a function of three-dimensional total lightning density. A mobile X-band polarimetric radar and very high frequency (VHF) sources from Lightning Mapping Array (LMA) observations during the 2011/2012 Brazil spring-summer were used to determine the microphysical signatures of radar vertical profiles and lightning density. This study quantified the behavior of 5.3 million vertical profiles of the horizontal reflectivity (ZH), differential reflectivity (ZDR), specific differential phase (KDP), and correlation coefficient (ρHV). The principal changes in the polarimetric variables occurred only for VHF source rate density greater than 14 VHF sources per km2 in 4 min. These storms showed an enhanced positive KDP in the mixed 1 layer (from 0 to -15°C) probably associated with supercooled liquid water signatures, whereas regions with negative ZDR and KDP and moderate ZH in the mixed 2 layer (from -15 to -40°C) were possibly associated with the presence of conical graupel. The glaciated (above -40°C) and upper part of the mixed 2 layers showed a significant trend to negative KDP with an increase in lightning density, in agreement with vertical alignment of ice particle by the cloud electric field. A conceptual model that presents the microphysical signatures in storms with and without lightning activity was constructed. The observations documented in this study provide an understanding of how the combinations of polarimetric variables could help to identify storms with different lightning density and vice versa.

  9. Healthcare4VideoStorm: Making Smart Decisions Based on Storm Metrics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Weishan; Duan, Pengcheng; Chen, Xiufeng; Lu, Qinghua

    2016-04-23

    Storm-based stream processing is widely used for real-time large-scale distributed processing. Knowing the run-time status and ensuring performance is critical to providing expected dependability for some applications, e.g., continuous video processing for security surveillance. The existing scheduling strategies' granularity is too coarse to have good performance, and mainly considers network resources without computing resources while scheduling. In this paper, we propose Healthcare4Storm, a framework that finds Storm insights based on Storm metrics to gain knowledge from the health status of an application, finally ending up with smart scheduling decisions. It takes into account both network and computing resources and conducts scheduling at a fine-grained level using tuples instead of topologies. The comprehensive evaluation shows that the proposed framework has good performance and can improve the dependability of the Storm-based applications.

  10. Healthcare4VideoStorm: Making Smart Decisions Based on Storm Metrics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weishan Zhang

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Storm-based stream processing is widely used for real-time large-scale distributed processing. Knowing the run-time status and ensuring performance is critical to providing expected dependability for some applications, e.g., continuous video processing for security surveillance. The existing scheduling strategies’ granularity is too coarse to have good performance, and mainly considers network resources without computing resources while scheduling. In this paper, we propose Healthcare4Storm, a framework that finds Storm insights based on Storm metrics to gain knowledge from the health status of an application, finally ending up with smart scheduling decisions. It takes into account both network and computing resources and conducts scheduling at a fine-grained level using tuples instead of topologies. The comprehensive evaluation shows that the proposed framework has good performance and can improve the dependability of the Storm-based applications.

  11. Survival Analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Miller, Rupert G

    2011-01-01

    A concise summary of the statistical methods used in the analysis of survival data with censoring. Emphasizes recently developed nonparametric techniques. Outlines methods in detail and illustrates them with actual data. Discusses the theory behind each method. Includes numerous worked problems and numerical exercises.

  12. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    well GUTS, calibrated with short-term survival data of Gammarus pulex exposed to four pesticides, can forecast effects of longer-term pulsed exposures. Thirdly, we tested the ability of GUTS to estimate 14-day median effect concentrations of malathion for a range of species and use these estimates...

  13. Mapping dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge across the Australian coastline using ROMS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Wenyan; Westra, Seth; Lenord, Michael; McInnes, Kathleen

    2017-04-01

    Storm surge caused by a combination of wind action and low pressure acting on the ocean's surface is a significant contributor to flooding in coastal and estuarine regions. When coincided with other flood-producing mechanisms such as extreme rainfall, the consequences can be devastating. Therefore it is important to understand the interaction between extreme storm surge and extreme rainfall. Previously, the dependence between extreme storm surge and extreme rainfall in Australia has been investigated using observed data from 49 tide gauges along the Australian coastline and statistically significant dependence has been observed for the majority of the locations (Zheng et al. 2013). However, in order to assess the flood risk due to coincident extreme surge and rainfall along coastal regions, more detailed mapping (e.g. including locations where there is no tide gauge) of the dependence between the two flood producing factors is required. There is also a need to quantify changes in dependence under climate change in order to understand future flood risk. Therefore, it is important to be able to quantify the dependence between extreme storm surge and extreme rainfall using modelled data. In this study, we investigated the dependence between extreme storm surge and extreme rainfall using modelled storm surge data from the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS) (Shchepetkin and McWilliams 2005). Storm surge data from 551 locations along the Australian coastline (at 30 km intervals) between the 1st of January 1981 and the 7th of May 2013 were used. These locations were paired with daily rainfall from gauges within a 30 km radius. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to quantify the dependence between extreme daily storm surge and extreme daily rainfall. The results were compared with dependence values calculated using observed storm surge at 79 tide gauges around Australia. Promising results were obtained. The dependence calculated using modelled storm

  14. N : P Stoichiometry in a Forested Runoff during Storm Events: Comparisons with Regions and Vegetation Types

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lanlan Guo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Nitrogen and phosphorus are considered the most important limiting elements in terrestrial and aquatic ecosystems. however, very few studies have focused on which is from forested streams, a bridge between these two systems. To fill this gap, we examined the concentrations of dissolved N and P in storm waters from forested watersheds of five regions in Japan, to characterize nutrient limitation and its potential controlling factors. First, dissolved N and P concentrations and the N : P ratio on forested streams were higher during storm events relative to baseflow conditions. Second, significantly higher dissolved inorganic N concentrations were found in storm waters from evergreen coniferous forest streams than those from deciduous broadleaf forest streams in Aichi, Kochi, Mie, Nagano, and with the exception of Tokyo. Finally, almost all the N : P ratios in the storm water were generally higher than 34, implying that the storm water should be P-limited, especially for Tokyo.

  15. Simulated storm surge effects on freshwater coastal wetland soil porewater salinity and extractable ammonium levels: Implications for marsh recovery after storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    McKee, M.; White, J. R.; Putnam-Duhon, L. A.

    2016-11-01

    Coastal wetland systems experience both short-term changes in salinity, such as those caused by wind-driven tides and storm surge, and long-term shifts caused by sea level rise. Salinity increases associated with storm surge are known to have significant effects on soil porewater chemistry, but there is little research on the effect of flooding length on salt penetration depth into coastal marsh soils. A simulated storm surge was imposed on intact soil columns collected from a non-vegetated mudflat and a vegetated marsh site in the Wax Lake Delta, LA. Triplicate intact cores were continuously exposed to a 35 salinity water column (practical salinity scale) for 1, 2, and 4 weeks and destructively sampled in order to measure porewater salinity and extractable NH4sbnd N at two cm depth intervals. Salinity was significantly higher in the top 8 cm for both the marsh and mudflat cores after one week of flooding. After four weeks of flooding, salinity was significantly higher in marsh and mudflat cores compared to the control (no salinity) cores throughout the profile for both sites. Extractable ammonium levels increased significantly in the marsh cores throughout the experiment, but there was only a marginally (p < 0.1) significant increase seen in the mudflat cores. Results indicate that porewater salinity levels can become significantly elevated within a coastal marsh soil in just one week. This vertical intrusion of salt can potentially negatively impact macrophytes and associated microbial communities for significantly longer term post-storm surge.

  16. Data Assimilation within the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC) Modeling Framework for Hurricane Storm Surge Forecasting

    KAUST Repository

    Butler, T.

    2012-07-01

    Accurate, real-time forecasting of coastal inundation due to hurricanes and tropical storms is a challenging computational problem requiring high-fidelity forward models of currents and water levels driven by hurricane-force winds. Despite best efforts in computational modeling there will always be uncertainty in storm surge forecasts. In recent years, there has been significant instrumentation located along the coastal United States for the purpose of collecting data—specifically wind, water levels, and wave heights—during these extreme events. This type of data, if available in real time, could be used in a data assimilation framework to improve hurricane storm surge forecasts. In this paper a data assimilation methodology for storm surge forecasting based on the use of ensemble Kalman filters and the advanced circulation (ADCIRC) storm surge model is described. The singular evolutive interpolated Kalman (SEIK) filter has been shown to be effective at producing accurate results for ocean models using small ensemble sizes initialized by an empirical orthogonal function analysis. The SEIK filter is applied to the ADCIRC model to improve storm surge forecasting, particularly in capturing maximum water levels (high water marks) and the timing of the surge. Two test cases of data obtained from hindcast studies of Hurricanes Ike and Katrina are presented. It is shown that a modified SEIK filter with an inflation factor improves the accuracy of coarse-resolution forecasts of storm surge resulting from hurricanes. Furthermore, the SEIK filter requires only modest computational resources to obtain more accurate forecasts of storm surge in a constrained time window where forecasters must interact with emergency responders.

  17. Ionospheric data assimilation and forecasting during storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chartier, A.; Matsuo, T.; Anderson, J. L.; Collins, N.; Hoar, T.; Lu, G.; Mitchell, C. N.; Coster, A. J.; Bust, G. S.; Paxton, L. J.

    2016-12-01

    Ionospheric storms can have important effects on radio communications and navigation systems. Storm time ionospheric predictions have the potential to form part of effective mitigation strategies to these problems. Ionospheric storms are caused by strong forcing from the solar wind. Electron density enhancements are driven by penetration electric fields, as well as by thermosphere-ionosphere behavior including Traveling Atmospheric Disturbances and Traveling Ionospheric Disturbances and changes to the neutral composition. This study assesses the effect on 1 h predictions of specifying initial ionospheric and thermospheric conditions using total electron content (TEC) observations under a fixed set of solar and high-latitude drivers. Prediction performance is assessed against TEC observations, incoherent scatter radar, and in situ electron density observations. Corotated TEC data provide a benchmark of forecast accuracy. The primary case study is the storm of 10 September 2005, while the anomalous storm of 21 January 2005 provides a secondary comparison. The study uses an ensemble Kalman filter constructed with the Data Assimilation Research Testbed and the Thermosphere Ionosphere Electrodynamics General Circulation Model. Maps of preprocessed, verticalized GPS TEC are assimilated, while high-latitude specifications from the Assimilative Mapping of Ionospheric Electrodynamics and solar flux observations from the Solar Extreme Ultraviolet Experiment are used to drive the model. The filter adjusts ionospheric and thermospheric parameters, making use of time-evolving covariance estimates. The approach is effective in correcting model biases.

  18. Reconstruction of Atlantic historical winter coastal storms in the Spanish coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz, 1929–2005

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Ribera

    2011-06-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents the reconstruction of a climatological series of winter coastal storms on the northern coasts of the Gulf of Cadiz. This series has been put together using information extracted from regional and local Spanish newspapers. It includes all the storms coming from the Atlantic sector that have been detected during the winter season, from October to March, between 1929 and 2005. In order to validate this historical storm series, it has been compared with storms series identified from quasi-observational data and using different wave heights as thresholds to decide what is to be considered as a coastal storm. Nearly 2.6 reports per year about coastal storms are published in the press which correspond to waves of 3.6 m high or more and to prevailing winds from a direction ranging between SSW and WNW. A long- term positive trend has been detected for the complete storm series. If only the instrumental period is analysed, no significant trend is detected. It is suggested that this difference might be associated with the impact of the North Atlantic Oscillation over the occurrence of storms in this area.

  19. Improving the simulation of convective dust storms in regional-to-global models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foroutan, Hosein; Pleim, Jonathan E.

    2017-09-01

    Convective dust storms have significant impacts on atmospheric conditions and air quality and are a major source of dust uplift in summertime. However, regional-to-global models generally do not accurately simulate these storms, a limitation that can be attributed to (1) using a single mean value for wind speed per grid box, i.e., not accounting for subgrid wind variability and (2) using convective parametrizations that poorly simulate cold pool outflows. This study aims to improve the simulation of convective dust storms by tackling these two issues. Specifically, we incorporate a probability distribution function for surface wind in each grid box to account for subgrid wind variability due to dry and moist convection. Furthermore, we use lightning assimilation to increase the accuracy of the convective parameterization and simulated cold pool outflows. This updated model framework is used to simulate a massive convective dust storm that hit Phoenix, AZ, on 6 July 2011. The results show that lightning assimilation provides a more realistic simulation of precipitation features, including timing and location, and the resulting cold pool outflows that generated the dust storm. When those results are combined with a dust model that accounts for subgrid wind variability, the prediction of dust uplift and concentrations are considerably improved compared to the default model results. This modeling framework could potentially improve the simulation of convective dust storms in global models, regional climate simulations, and retrospective air quality studies.

  20. Rapid wave and storm surge warning system for tropical cyclones in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, C. M.; Rosengaus, M.; Meza, R.; Camacho, V.

    2015-12-01

    The National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami, is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in the North Atlantic and Eastern North Pacific basins. As such, Mexico, Central America and Caribbean countries depend on the information issued by the NHC related to the characteristics of a particular tropical cyclone and associated watch and warning areas. Despite waves and storm surge are important hazards for marine operations and coastal dwellings, their forecast is not part of the NHC responsibilities. This work presents a rapid wave and storm surge warning system based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the National Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  1. Solar wind drivers of geomagnetic storms during more than four solar cycles

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richardson Ian G.

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Using a classification of the near-Earth solar wind into three basic flow types: (1 High-speed streams associated with coronal holes at the Sun; (2 Slow, interstream solar wind; and (3 Transient flows originating with coronal mass ejections (CMEs at the Sun, including interplanetary CMEs and the associated upstream shocks and post-shock regions, we determine the drivers of geomagnetic storms of various size ranges based on the Kp index and the NOAA “G” criteria since 1964, close to the beginning of the space era, to 2011, encompassing more than four solar cycles (20–23. We also briefly discuss the occurrence of storms since the beginning of the Kp index in 1932, in the minimum before cycle 17. We note that the extended low level of storm activity during the minimum following cycle 23 is without precedent in this 80-year interval. Furthermore, the “typical” numbers of storm days/cycle quoted in the standard NOAA G storm table appear to be significantly higher than those obtained from our analysis, except for the strongest (G5 storms, suggesting that they should be revised downward.

  2. An Evaluation of Lightning Flash Rate Parameterizations Based on Observations of Colorado Storms during DC3

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basarab, B.; Fuchs, B.; Rutledge, S. A.

    2013-12-01

    Predicting lightning activity in thunderstorms is important in order to accurately quantify the production of nitrogen oxides (NOx = NO + NO2) by lightning (LNOx). Lightning is an important global source of NOx, and since NOx is a chemical precursor to ozone, the climatological impacts of LNOx could be significant. Many cloud-resolving models rely on parameterizations to predict lightning and LNOx since the processes leading to charge separation and lightning discharge are not yet fully understood. This study evaluates predicted flash rates based on existing lightning parameterizations against flash rates observed for Colorado storms during the Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry Experiment (DC3). Evaluating lightning parameterizations against storm observations is a useful way to possibly improve the prediction of flash rates and LNOx in models. Additionally, since convective storms that form in the eastern plains of Colorado can be different thermodynamically and electrically from storms in other regions, it is useful to test existing parameterizations against observations from these storms. We present an analysis of the dynamics, microphysics, and lightning characteristics of two case studies, severe storms that developed on 6 and 7 June 2012. This analysis includes dual-Doppler derived horizontal and vertical velocities, a hydrometeor identification based on polarimetric radar variables using the CSU-CHILL radar, and insight into the charge structure using observations from the northern Colorado Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). Flash rates were inferred from the LMA data using a flash counting algorithm. We have calculated various microphysical and dynamical parameters for these storms that have been used in empirical flash rate parameterizations. In particular, maximum vertical velocity has been used to predict flash rates in some cloud-resolving chemistry simulations. We diagnose flash rates for the 6 and 7 June storms using this parameterization and compare

  3. Artists’ Survival Rate

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bille, Trine; Jensen, Søren

    2017-01-01

    The literature of cultural economics generally finds that an artistic education has no significant impact on artists’ income and careers in the arts. In our research, we have readdressed this question by looking at the artists’ survival in the arts occupations. The results show that an artistic...... education has a significant impact on artists’ careers in the arts and we find important industry differences....

  4. Environment, behavior and physiology: do birds use barometric pressure to predict storms?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breuner, Creagh W; Sprague, Rachel S; Patterson, Stephen H; Woods, H Arthur

    2013-06-01

    Severe storms can pose a grave challenge to the temperature and energy homeostasis of small endothermic vertebrates. Storms are accompanied by lower temperatures and wind, increasing metabolic expenditure, and can inhibit foraging, thereby limiting energy intake. To avoid these potential problems, most endotherms have mechanisms for offsetting the energetic risks posed by storms. One possibility is to use cues to predict oncoming storms and to alter physiology and behavior in ways that make survival more likely. Barometric pressure declines predictably before inclement weather, and several lines of evidence indicate that animals alter behavior based on changes in ambient pressure. Here we examined the effects of declining barometric pressure on physiology and behavior in the white-crowned sparrow, Zonotrichia leucophrys. Using field data from a long-term study, we first evaluated the relationship between barometric pressure, storms and stress physiology in free-living white-crowned sparrows. We then manipulated barometric pressure experimentally in the laboratory and determined how it affects activity, food intake, metabolic rates and stress physiology. The field data showed declining barometric pressure in the 12-24 h preceding snowstorms, but we found no relationship between barometric pressure and stress physiology. The laboratory study showed that declining barometric pressure stimulated food intake, but had no effect on metabolic rate or stress physiology. These data suggest that white-crowned sparrows can sense and respond to declining barometric pressure, and we propose that such an ability may be common in wild vertebrates, especially small ones for whom individual storms can be life-threatening events.

  5. Parameters Optimization for Operational Storm Surge/Tide Forecast Model using a Genetic Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, W.; You, S.; Ryoo, S.; Global Environment System Research Laboratory

    2010-12-01

    Typhoons generated in northwestern Pacific Ocean annually affect the Korean Peninsula and storm surges generated by strong low pressure and sea winds often cause serious damage to property in the coastal region. To predict storm surges, a lot of researches have been conducted by using numerical models for many years. Various parameters used for calculation of physics process are used in numerical models based on laws of physics, but they are not accurate values. Because those parameters affect to the model performance, these uncertain values can sensitively operate results of the model. Therefore, optimization of these parameters used in numerical model is essential for accurate storm surge predictions. A genetic algorithm (GA) is recently used to estimate optimized values of these parameters. The GA is a stochastic exploration modeling natural phenomenon named genetic heritance and competition for survival. To realize breeding of species and selection, the groups which may be harmed are kept and use genetic operators such as inheritance, mutation, selection and crossover. In this study, we have improved operational storm surge/tide forecast model(STORM) of NIMR/KMA (National Institute of Meteorological Research/Korea Meteorological Administration) that covers 115E - 150E, 20N - 52N based on POM (Princeton Ocean Model) with 8km horizontal resolutions using the GA. Optimized values have been estimated about main 4 parameters which are bottom drag coefficient, background horizontal diffusivity coefficient, Smagoranski’s horizontal viscosity coefficient and sea level pressure scaling coefficient within STORM. These optimized parameters were estimated on typhoon MAEMI in 2003 and 9 typhoons which have affected to Korea peninsula from 2005 to 2007. The 4 estimated parameters were also used to compare one-month predictions in February and August 2008. During the 48h forecast time, the mean and median model accuracies improved by 25 and 51%, respectively.

  6. Storm water modeling at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Veis, Christopher [Montana Tech of the Univ. of Montana, Butte, MT (United States)

    1996-05-01

    Storm water modeling is important to Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL) for compliance with regulations that govern water discharge at large industrial facilities. Modeling is also done to study trend in contaminants and storm sewer infrastructure. The Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) was used to simulate rainfall events at LLNL. SWMM is a comprehensive computer model for simulation of urban runoff quantity and quality in storm and combined sewer systems. Due to time constraints and ongoing research, no modeling was completed at LLNL. With proper information about the storm sewers, a SWMM simulation of a rainfall event on site would be beneficial to storm sewer analyst.

  7. SEP's during Halloween storms and space weather

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hady, Ahmed; Saleh, Ahmed

    2014-05-01

    The solar energetic particles (SEP's) could be accelerated to higher energies of order of MeV per nucleon. A modified model for SEP's acceleration has been given and applied for Halloween storms event during the decline phase of solar cycle 23. The estimated values of the solar magnetic field during the solar particle event were introduced. The solar magnetic field describes a sophisticated feature of discrete sectors/regions over the period that starts from 28 October 2003 to 4 November 2003. The applications of the suggested model on the solar particle event show that a homogeneous structure is in agreement with the observations. The SEP and CME events lead to severe effects in geo-space and on earth, such as power blackouts, disruption of communications, and damage to satellites. Daily Geomagnetic storm changes, during Halloween storms were studied

  8. The assessment of Urban Storm Inundation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Setyandito, Oki; Wijayanti, Yureana; Alwan, Muhammad; Chayati, Cholilul; Meilani

    2017-12-01

    A Sustainable and integrated plan in order to solve urban storm inundation problem, is an urgent issue in Indonesia. A reliable and complete datasets of urban storm inundation area in Indonesia should become its basis to give clear description of inundation area for formulating the best solution. In this study, Statistics Indonesia data in thirty three provinces were assessed during 2000 until 2012 providing data series of urban flood area, flood frequency and land cover changes. Drainage system condition in big cities should be well understood to ensure its infrastructure condition and performance. If inundation occurred, it can be concluded that there is drainage system problem. Inundation data is also important for drainage system design process in the future. The study result is provided estimation of urban storm inundation area based on calculation of Statistics Indonesia data. Moreover, this study is preceded by analyzing and reviewing the capacity of existing drainage channel, using case study of Mataram, West Nusa Tenggara. Rainfall data was obtained from three rainfall stations surround Mataram City. The storm water quantity was calculated using three different approaches as follows: 1) Rational Method; 2) Summation of existing inundation and surface run off discharge; 3) Discharge calculation from existing channel dimensions. After that, the result of these approaches was compared. The storm water quantity gap was concluded as quantity of inundation. The result shows that 36% of drainage channel in Brenyok Kanan River sub system could not accommodate the storm water runoff in this area, which causing inundation. The redesign of drainage channel using design discharge from Rational Method approach should be performed. Within area with the lowest level topography, a construction of detention or storage pond is essential to prevent inundation in this area. Furthermore, the benefits and drawbacks of the statistics database are discussed. Recommendations

  9. Dynamic Modeling of Surface Runoff and Storm Surge during Hurricane and Tropical Storm Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Walter F. Silva-Araya

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available Hurricane events combine ocean storm surge penetration with inland runoff flooding. This article presents a new methodology to determine coastal flood levels caused by the combination of storm surge and surface runoff. The proposed approach couples the Simulating Waves Nearshore model and the Advanced Circulation (ADCIRC model with the Gridded Surface Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis (GSSHA two-dimensional hydrologic model. Radar precipitation data in a 2D hydrologic model with a circulation model allows simulation of time and spatially varied conditions. The method was applied to study flooding scenarios occurring during the passage of Hurricane Georges (1998 on the east coast of Puerto Rico. The combination of storm surge and surface runoff produced a critical scenario, in terms of flood depth, at this location. The paper describes the data collection process, circulation and hydrologic models, their assemblage and simulation scenarios. Results show that peak flow from inland runoff and peak flow due to storm surge did not coincide in the coastal zone; however, the interaction of both discharges causes an aggravated hazardous condition by increasing flood levels beyond those obtained with storm surge penetration only. Linking of storm surge and hydrologic models are necessary when storm surge conditions occur simultaneously with high precipitation over steep and small coastal watersheds.

  10. Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) | Science Inventory ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stormwater discharges continue to cause impairment of our Nation’s waterbodies. Regulations that require the retention and/or treatment of frequent, small storms that dominate runoff volumes and pollutant loads are becoming more common. The U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) developed the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) to help support local, state, and national stormwater management objectives to reduce runoff through infiltration and retention. SWMM was first developed in 1971 and has undergone several major upgrades since then. To inform the public on EPA's green infrastructure models.

  11. Significance of ERBB2 Overexpression in Therapeutic Resistance and Cancer-Specific Survival in Muscle-Invasive Bladder Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiation-Based Selective Bladder-Sparing Approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Inoue, Masaharu [Department of Urology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Graduate School, Tokyo (Japan); Koga, Fumitaka, E-mail: f-koga@cick.jp [Department of Urology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Graduate School, Tokyo (Japan); Yoshida, Soichiro [Department of Urology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Graduate School, Tokyo (Japan); Tamura, Tomoki [Department of Pathology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Graduate School, Tokyo (Japan); Fujii, Yasuhisa [Department of Urology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Graduate School, Tokyo (Japan); Ito, Eisaku [Department of Pathology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Graduate School, Tokyo (Japan); Kihara, Kazunori [Department of Urology, Tokyo Medical and Dental University, Graduate School, Tokyo (Japan)

    2014-10-01

    Purpose: To investigate the associations of ERBB 2 overexpression with chemoradiation therapy (CRT) resistance and cancer-specific survival (CSS) in muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) patients treated with the CRT-based bladder-sparing protocol. Methods and Materials: From 1997 to 2012, 201 patients with cT2-4aN0M0 bladder cancer were treated with CRT (40 Gy with concurrent cisplatin) following transurethral resection of bladder tumor (TURBT). Basically, patients with tumors that showed good CRT response and were amenable to segmental resection underwent partial cystectomy (PC) with pelvic lymph node dissection for bladder preservation; otherwise, radical cystectomy (RC) was recommended. Included in this study were 119 patients in whom TURBT specimens were available for immunohistochemical analysis of ERBB 2 expression. Following CRT, 30 and 65 patients underwent PC or RC, respectively; the remaining 24 patients did not undergo cystectomy. Tumors were defined as CRT-resistant when patients did not achieve complete response after CRT. Associations of ERBB 2 overexpression with CRT resistance and CSS were evaluated. Results: CRT resistance was observed clinically in 56% (67 of 119 patients) and pathologically (in cystectomy specimens) in 55% (52 of 95 patients). ERBB 2 overexpression was observed in 45 patients (38%). On multivariate analysis, ERBB 2 overexpression was an independent predictor for CRT resistance clinically (odds ratio, 3.6; P=.002) and pathologically (odds ratio, 2.9; P=.031). ERBB 2 overexpression was associated with shorter CSS (5-year CSS rates, 56% vs 87% for the ERBB 2 overexpression group vs the others; P=.001). ERBB 2 overexpression was also an independent risk factor for bladder cancer death at all time points of our bladder-sparing protocol (pre-CRT, post-CRT, and post-cystectomy). Conclusions: ERBB 2 overexpression appears relevant to CRT resistance and unfavorable CSS in MIBC patients treated with the CRT-based bladder

  12. Leonid Storm Flux from Efficient Visual Scanning of 1999 Leonid Storm Video Tapes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holman, D.; Jenniskens, P.

    2001-06-01

    A small fragment of Leonid storm video data from the 1999 Leonid Multi-Instrument Aircraft Campaign is analyzed visually at exhaustion to measure the detection efficiency of visual scanning techniques and calibrate the meteor flux at the peak of the storm. The high meteor rate makes it possible to obtain statistically meaningful results over short time intervals. We arrive here at a flux estimate for the peak of the 1999 Leonid storm of 2.8+-0.4km^2/hr (m < +6.5), a factor of two higher than reported elsewhere.

  13. Effects of dust storm events on weekly clinic visits related to pulmonary tuberculosis disease in Minqin, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yun; Wang, Ruoyu; Ming, Jing; Liu, Guangxiu; Chen, Tuo; Liu, Xinfeng; Liu, Haixia; Zhen, Yunhe; Cheng, Guodong

    2016-02-01

    Pulmonary tuberculosis (PTB) is a major public health problem in China. Minqin, a Northwest county of China, has a very high number of annual PTB clinic visits and it is also known for its severe dust storms. The epidemic usually begins in February and ends in July, while the dust storms mainly occur throughout spring and early summer, thereby suggesting that there might be a close link between the causative agent of PTB and dust storms. We investigated the general impact of dust storms on PTB over time by analyzing the variation in weekly clinic visits in Minqin during 2005-2012. We used the Mann-Whitney-Pettitt test and a regression model to determine the seasonal periodicity of PTB and dust storms in a time series, as well as assessing the relationships between meteorological variables and weekly PTB clinic visits. After comparing the number of weekly PTB cases in Gansu province with dust storm events, we detected a clear link between the population dynamics of PTB and climate events, i.e., the onset of epidemics and dust storms (defined by an atmospheric index) occurred in almost the same mean week. Thus, particulate matter might be the cause of PTB outbreaks on dust storm days. It is highly likely that the significant decline in annual clinic visits was closely associated with improvements in the local environment, which prevented desertification and decreased the frequency of dust storm events. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first population-based study to provide clear evidence that a PTB epidemic was affected by dust storms in China, which may give insights into the association between this environmental problem and the evolution of epidemic disease.

  14. Winter storms drive rapid phenotypic, regulatory, and genomic shifts in the green anole lizard.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell-Staton, Shane C; Cheviron, Zachary A; Rochette, Nicholas; Catchen, Julian; Losos, Jonathan B; Edwards, Scott V

    2017-08-04

    Extreme environmental perturbations offer opportunities to observe the effects of natural selection in wild populations. During the winter of 2013-2014, the southeastern United States endured an extreme cold event. We used thermal performance, transcriptomics, and genome scans to measure responses of lizard populations to storm-induced selection. We found significant increases in cold tolerance at the species' southern limit. Gene expression in southern survivors shifted toward patterns characteristic of northern populations. Comparing samples before and after the extreme winter, 14 genomic regions were differentiated in the surviving southern population; four also exhibited signatures of local adaptation across the latitudinal gradient and implicate genes involved in nervous system function. Together, our results suggest that extreme winter events can rapidly produce strong selection on natural populations at multiple biological levels that recapitulate geographic patterns of local adaptation. Copyright © 2017 The Authors, some rights reserved; exclusive licensee American Association for the Advancement of Science. No claim to original U.S. Government Works.

  15. The influence of disturbance events on survival and dispersal rates of Florida box turtles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dodd, C.K.; Ozgul, A.; Oli, M.K.

    2006-01-01

    Disturbances have the potential to cause long-term effects to ecosystem structure and function, and they may affect individual species in different ways. Long-lived vertebrates such as turtles may be at risk from such events, inasmuch as their life histories preclude rapid recovery should extensive mortality occur. We applied capture–mark–recapture models to assess disturbance effects on a population of Florida box turtles (Terrapene carolina bauri) on Egmont Key, Florida, USA. Near the midpoint of the study, a series of physical disturbances affected the island, from salt water overwash associated with several tropical storms to extensive removal of nonindigenous vegetation. These disturbances allowed us to examine demographic responses of the turtle population and to determine if they affected dispersal throughout the island. Adult survival rates did not vary significantly either between sexes or among years of the study. Survival rates did not vary significantly between juvenile and adult turtles, or among years of the study. Furthermore, neither adult nor juvenile survival rates differed significantly between pre- and post-disturbance. However, dispersal rates varied significantly among the four major study sites, and dispersal rates were higher during the pre-disturbance sampling periods compared to post-disturbance. Our results suggest few long-term effects on the demography of the turtle population. Florida box turtles responded to tropical storms and vegetation control by moving to favorable habitats minimally affected by the disturbances and remaining there. As long as turtles and perhaps other long-lived vertebrates can disperse to non-disturbed habitat, and high levels of mortality do not occur in a population, a long life span may allow them to wait out the impact of disturbance with potentially little effect on long-term population processes.

  16. Consumer's Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... Consumer's Guide to Food Safety: Severe Storms and Hurricanes Note: This text-only version of the Guide ... Contacts for Areas Affected by Severe Storms and Hurricanes FOOD SAFETY DURING AN EMERGENCY Did you know ...

  17. Ice Storms in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    degrees north CFSR Climate Forecast System Reanalysis EPRI Electric Power Research Institute ESRL Earth System Research Laboratory GMT Greenwich... electrical structures), and transportation, and can cause deaths—either due to exposure to subfreezing temperatures or vehicular accidents. An...climate change, algorithm, mean jet stream, climatology, ice storm seasons, verified 15. NUMBER OF PAGES 71 16. PRICE CODE 17. SECURITY

  18. DEVELOPING DESIGN STORM HYDROGRAPHS FOR SMALL ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Osondu

    hydrograph methods for the development of design storm hydrographs for rivers located in the. South-West region of Nigeria. In this study, Unit hydrographs were developed based on the methods put forth by Snyder, the Soil. Conservation Service (SCS) method, and Gray's method. Neither study considered Clark's method.

  19. Global mortality from storm surges is decreasing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens M.; Jonkman, Sebastiaan N.

    2018-01-01

    Changes in society’s vulnerability to natural hazards are important to understand, as they determine current and future risks, and the need to improve protection. Very large impacts including high numbers of fatalities occur due to single storm surge flood events. Here, we report on impacts of global coastal storm surge events since the year 1900, based on a compilation of events and data on loss of life. We find that over the past, more than eight thousand people are killed and 1.5 million people are affected annually by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10 000 persons) from single events has however decreased over time. Moreover, there is a consistent decrease in event mortality, measured by the fraction of exposed people that are killed, for all global regions, except South East Asia. Average mortality for storm surges is slightly higher than for river floods, but lower than for flash floods. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality has decreased over time. This indicates that risk reduction efforts have been successful, but need to be continued with projected climate change, increased rates of sea-level rise and urbanisation in coastal zones.

  20. Military Review: Desert Shield/Desert Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-04-01

    Directorate However, this unprecedented conversion was ir- 5 of the US Army Combined Arms Support reversible . Most of the new hardware was in Co~mmand...the Logistcs Automation Directorate, US Army Desert Storm. CASCOM and DCL remain Comrined Arms Support Command, Fort Lee, committed to ensuring the

  1. Okla. Tornado Renews Debate on Storm Safety

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shah, Nirvi

    2013-01-01

    As soon as the winds that left seven students in Moore, Okla., dead last month had calmed, and more storms blew through the same area less than two weeks later, questions about the safety of schools in a region labeled Tornado Alley rose amid the rubble. While better design of new schools and thorough emergency training and practice may be in…

  2. Developing Design Storm Hydrographs for Small Tropical ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study was to explore the development of design storm hydrographs for the small tropical catchment with limited data. In this study, Clark's Unit Hydrograph method was used to develop synthetic hydrographs for the University of Ilorin Agricultural and Biosystems Engineering field plot. This method was ...

  3. Tornadic storm avoidance behavior in breeding songbirds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Streby, Henry M.; Kramer, Gunnar R.; Peterson, Sean M.; Lehman, Justin A.; Buehler, David A.; Andersen, David E.

    2015-01-01

    Migration is a common behavior used by animals of many taxa to occupy different habitats during different periods. Migrant birds are categorized as either facultative (i.e., those that are forced to migrate by some proximal cue, often weather) or obligate (i.e., those that migrate on a regular cycle). During migration, obligate migrants can curtail or delay flights in response to inclement weather or until favorable winds prevail, and they can temporarily reorient or reverse direction when ecological or meteorological obstacles are encountered. However, it is not known whether obligate migrants undertake facultative migrations and make large-scale movements in response to proximal cues outside of their regular migration periods. Here, we present the first documentation of obligate long-distance migrant birds undertaking a facultative migration, wherein breeding golden-winged warblers (Vermivora chrysoptera) carrying light-level geolocators performed a >1,500 km 5-day circumvention of a severe tornadic storm. The birds evacuated their breeding territories >24 hr before the arrival of the storm and atmospheric variation associated with it. The probable cue, radiating >1,000 km from tornadic storms, perceived by birds and influencing bird behavior and movements, is infrasound (i.e., sound below the range of human hearing). With the predicted increase in severity and frequency of similar storms as anthropogenic climate change progresses, understanding large-scale behavioral responses of animals to such events will be an important objective of future research.

  4. Storm Water Management Model Applications Manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model that computes runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. This manual is a practical application guide for new SWMM users who have already had some previous training in hydrolog...

  5. Stealth CMEs and Stealthy Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nitta, Nariaki; Mulligan, Tamitha

    2016-10-01

    We sometimes encounter coronal mass ejections (CMEs) whose low coronal signatures are apparently missing, especially when viewed on the disk. They are called stealth CMEs, which are usually slow and diffuse. Some of them result in medium geomagnetic storms. Similarly, there are orphan interplanetary CMEs (ICMEs) that lack a parent CME in coronagraph data but could cause geomagnetic storms when strong and sustained southward magnetic field is present. In addition, some geomagnetic storms may be attributable to a fast solar wind and stream interaction region, but it is often hard to rule out a trace of ICME (coming from a solar eruption) in in situ data. These events present a major challenge not only in heliophysics research but also in space weather prediction. We summarize our recent attempt to understand the origins of stealth CMEs and stealthy geomagnetic storms, making extensive use of SDO/AIA data in comparison with SOHO/LASCO and STEREO/EUVI/COR data. In situ data from Wind, ACE and STEREO are also examined. We discuss the relations of these events with coronal holes and sector boundaries.

  6. Patrick Air Force Base Storm Water Pollution Prevention Plan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1994-09-01

    discharges of materials to storm drains and surface waters. The facility will be inspected to include the following: Conditions that could lead to...not paved are vegetated with grass. The storm water runoff is conveyed by storm drains or by grassed channels. Any portion of a grassed channel that...identification of conditions that could cause breakdowns or failures that could result in discharges of materials to storm drains and surface waters

  7. Analysis of the positive ionospheric response to a moderate geomagnetic storm using a global numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Namgaladze

    Full Text Available Current theories of F-layer storms are discussed using numerical simulations with the Upper Atmosphere Model, a global self-consistent, time dependent numerical model of the thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere-magnetosphere system including electrodynamical coupling effects. A case study of a moderate geomagnetic storm at low solar activity during the northern winter solstice exemplifies the complex storm phenomena. The study focuses on positive ionospheric storm effects in relation to thermospheric disturbances in general and thermospheric composition changes in particular. It investigates the dynamical effects of both neutral meridional winds and electric fields caused by the disturbance dynamo effect. The penetration of short-time electric fields of magnetospheric origin during storm intensification phases is shown for the first time in this model study. Comparisons of the calculated thermospheric composition changes with satellite observations of AE-C and ESRO-4 during storm time show a good agreement. The empirical MSISE90 model, however, is less consistent with the simulations. It does not show the equatorward propagation of the disturbances and predicts that they have a gentler latitudinal gradient. Both theoretical and experimental data reveal that although the ratio of [O]/[N2] at high latitudes decreases significantly during the magnetic storm compared with the quiet time level, at mid to low latitudes it does not increase (at fixed altitudes above the quiet reference level. Meanwhile, the ionospheric storm is positive there. We conclude that the positive phase of the ionospheric storm is mainly due to uplifting of ionospheric F2-region plasma at mid latitudes and its equatorward movement at low latitudes along geomagnetic field lines caused by large-scale neutral wind circulation and the passage of travelling atmospheric disturbances (TADs. The calculated zonal electric field disturbances also help

  8. Analysis of the positive ionospheric response to a moderate geomagnetic storm using a global numerical model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. A. Namgaladze

    2000-04-01

    Full Text Available Current theories of F-layer storms are discussed using numerical simulations with the Upper Atmosphere Model, a global self-consistent, time dependent numerical model of the thermosphere-ionosphere-plasmasphere-magnetosphere system including electrodynamical coupling effects. A case study of a moderate geomagnetic storm at low solar activity during the northern winter solstice exemplifies the complex storm phenomena. The study focuses on positive ionospheric storm effects in relation to thermospheric disturbances in general and thermospheric composition changes in particular. It investigates the dynamical effects of both neutral meridional winds and electric fields caused by the disturbance dynamo effect. The penetration of short-time electric fields of magnetospheric origin during storm intensification phases is shown for the first time in this model study. Comparisons of the calculated thermospheric composition changes with satellite observations of AE-C and ESRO-4 during storm time show a good agreement. The empirical MSISE90 model, however, is less consistent with the simulations. It does not show the equatorward propagation of the disturbances and predicts that they have a gentler latitudinal gradient. Both theoretical and experimental data reveal that although the ratio of [O]/[N2] at high latitudes decreases significantly during the magnetic storm compared with the quiet time level, at mid to low latitudes it does not increase (at fixed altitudes above the quiet reference level. Meanwhile, the ionospheric storm is positive there. We conclude that the positive phase of the ionospheric storm is mainly due to uplifting of ionospheric F2-region plasma at mid latitudes and its equatorward movement at low latitudes along geomagnetic field lines caused by large-scale neutral wind circulation and the passage of travelling atmospheric disturbances (TADs. The calculated zonal electric field disturbances also help to create the positive ionospheric

  9. Short- and medium-term response to storms on three Mediterranean coarse-grained beaches

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grottoli, Edoardo; Bertoni, Duccio; Ciavola, Paolo

    2017-10-01

    The storm response of three Italian coarse-grained beaches was investigated to better understand the morphodynamics of coarse-clastic beaches in a microtidal context. Two of the studied sites are located on the eastern side of the country (Portonovo and Sirolo) and the third one (Marina di Pisa) is on the western side. Portonovo and Sirolo are mixed sand and gravel beaches where the storms approach from two main directions, SE and NE. Marina di Pisa is a coarse-grained, gravel-dominated beach, exposed to storms driven by SW winds. Gravel nourishments were undertaken in recent years on the three sites. Beach topography was monitored measuring the same network of cross sections at a monthly (i.e. short-term) to seasonal frequency (i.e. medium-term). Geomorphic changes were examined before and after storm occurrences by means of profile analyses and shoreline position evaluations. The beach orientation and the influence of hard structures are the main factors controlling the transport and accumulation of significant amount of sediments and the consequent high variability of beach morphology over the medium-term. For Marina di Pisa, storms tend to accumulate material towards the upper part of the beach with no shoreline rotation and no chance to recover the initial configuration. Sirolo and Portonovo showed a similar behaviour that is more typical of pocket beaches. Both beaches show shoreline rotation after storms in a clockwise or counter-clockwise direction according to the incoming wave direction. The wider and longer beach at Sirolo allows the accumulation of a thin layer of sediment during storms, rather than at Portonovo where, given its longshore and landward boundaries, the beach material tends to accumulate in greater thickness. After storms, Sirolo and especially Portonovo can quickly recover the initial beach configuration, as soon as another storm of comparable energy approaches from the opposite direction of the previous one. Large morphological

  10. An automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection based on ogc web processing services

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, F.; Shea, G. Y. K.; Wong, M. S.; Campbell, J.

    2014-11-01

    Dust storms are known to have adverse effects on public health. Atmospheric dust loading is also one of the major uncertainties in global climatic modelling as it is known to have a significant impact on the radiation budget and atmospheric stability. The complexity of building scientific dust storm models is coupled with the scientific computation advancement, ongoing computing platform development, and the development of heterogeneous Earth Observation (EO) networks. It is a challenging task to develop an integrated and automated scheme for dust storm detection that combines Geo-Processing frameworks, scientific models and EO data together to enable the dust storm detection and tracking processes in a dynamic and timely manner. This study develops an automated and integrated framework for dust storm detection and tracking based on the Web Processing Services (WPS) initiated by Open Geospatial Consortium (OGC). The presented WPS framework consists of EO data retrieval components, dust storm detecting and tracking component, and service chain orchestration engine. The EO data processing component is implemented based on OPeNDAP standard. The dust storm detecting and tracking component combines three earth scientific models, which are SBDART model (for computing aerosol optical depth (AOT) of dust particles), WRF model (for simulating meteorological parameters) and HYSPLIT model (for simulating the dust storm transport processes). The service chain orchestration engine is implemented based on Business Process Execution Language for Web Service (BPEL4WS) using open-source software. The output results, including horizontal and vertical AOT distribution of dust particles as well as their transport paths, were represented using KML/XML and displayed in Google Earth. A serious dust storm, which occurred over East Asia from 26 to 28 Apr 2012, is used to test the applicability of the proposed WPS framework. Our aim here is to solve a specific instance of a complex EO data

  11. Probabilistic storm surge inundation maps for Metro Manila based on Philippine public storm warning signals

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tablazon, J.; Caro, C. V.; Lagmay, A. M. F.; Briones, J. B. L.; Dasallas, L.; Lapidez, J. P.; Santiago, J.; Suarez, J. K.; Ladiero, C.; Gonzalo, L. A.; Mungcal, M. T. F.; Malano, V.

    2015-03-01

    A storm surge is the sudden rise of sea water over the astronomical tides, generated by an approaching storm. This event poses a major threat to the Philippine coastal areas, as manifested by Typhoon Haiyan on 8 November 2013. This hydro-meteorological hazard is one of the main reasons for the high number of casualties due to the typhoon, with 6300 deaths. It became evident that the need to develop a storm surge inundation map is of utmost importance. To develop these maps, the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology (DOST-Project NOAH) simulated historical tropical cyclones that entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility. The Japan Meteorological Agency storm surge model was used to simulate storm surge heights. The frequency distribution of the maximum storm surge heights was calculated using simulation results of tropical cyclones under a specific public storm warning signal (PSWS) that passed through a particular coastal area. This determines the storm surge height corresponding to a given probability of occurrence. The storm surge heights from the model were added to the maximum astronomical tide data from WXTide software. The team then created maps of inundation for a specific PSWS using the probability of exceedance derived from the frequency distribution. Buildings and other structures were assigned a probability of exceedance depending on their occupancy category, i.e., 1% probability of exceedance for critical facilities, 10% probability of exceedance for special occupancy structures, and 25% for standard occupancy and miscellaneous structures. The maps produced show the storm-surge-vulnerable areas in Metro Manila, illustrated by the flood depth of up to 4 m and extent of up to 6.5 km from the coastline. This information can help local government units in developing early warning systems, disaster preparedness and mitigation plans, vulnerability assessments, risk-sensitive land use plans, shoreline

  12. Total Lightning and Radar Storm Characteristics Associated with Severe Storms in Central Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Steven J; Raghavan, R.; Buechler, Dennis; Hodanish, S.; Sharp, D.; Williams, E.; Boldi, B.; Matlin, A.; Weber, M.

    1998-01-01

    This paper examines the three dimensional characteristics of lightning flashes and severe storms observed in Central Florida during 1997-1998. The lightning time history of severe and tornadic storms were captured during the on-going ground validation campaign supporting the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) experiment on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). The ground validation campaign is a collaborative experiment that began in 1997 and involves scientists at the Global Hydrology and Climate Center, MIT/Lincoln Laboratories, and the NWS Forecast Office at Melbourne, FL. Lightning signatures that may provide potential early warning of severe storms are being evaluated by the forecasters at the NWS/MLB office. Severe storms with extreme flash rates sometimes exceeding 300 per minute and accompanying rapid increases in flash rate prior to the onset of the severe weather (hall, damaging winds, tornadoes) have been reported by Hodanish et al. and Williams et al. (1998-this conference). We examine the co-evolving changes in storm structure (mass, echo top, shear, latent heat release) and kinematics associated with these extreme and rapid flash rate changes over time. The flash frequency and density are compared with the three dimensional radar reflectivity structure of the storm to help interpret the possible mechanisms producing the extreme and rapidly increasing flash rates. For two tornadic storms examined thus far, we find the burst of lightning is associated with the development of upper level rotation in the storm. In one case, the lightning burst follows the formation of a bounded weak echo region (BWER). The flash rates diminish with time as the rotation develops to the ground in conjunction with the decent of the reflectivity core. Our initial findings suggest the dramatic increase of flash rates is associated with a sudden and dramatic increase in storm updraft intensity which we hypothesize is stretching vertical vorticity as well as enhancing the

  13. A review of major storm impacts on coastal wetland elevations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahoon, D.R.

    2006-01-01

    Storms have long been recognized as agents of geomorphic change to coastal wetlands. A review of recent data on soil elevation dynamics before and after storms revealed that storms affected wetland elevations by storm surge, high winds, and freshwater flushing of the estuary (inferred). The data also indicate that measures of sediment deposition and erosion can often misrepresent the amount and even direction of elevation change because of storm influences on subsurface processes. Simultaneous influence on both surface and subsurface processes by storms means that soil elevation cannot always be accurately estimated from surface process data alone. Eight processes are identified as potentiatly influencing soil elevation: sediment deposition, sediment erosion, sediment compaction, soil shrinkage, root decomposition (following tree mortality from high winds), root growth (following flushing with freshwater, inferred), soil swelling, and lateral folding of the marsh root mat. Local wetland conditions (e.g., marsh health, tide height, groundwater level) and the physical characteristics of the storm (e.g., angle of approach, proximity, amount of rain, wind speed, and storm surge height) were apparently important factors determining the storm's effect on soil elevation. Storm effects on elevation were both permanent (on an ecological time scale) and short-lived, but even short-term changes have potentially important ecological consequences. Shallow soil subsidence or expansion caused by a storm must be considered when calculating local rates of relative sea level rise and evaluating storm effects on wetland stability.

  14. Spotter's Guide for Identifying and Reporting Severe Local Storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (DOC), Rockville, MD.

    This guide is designed to assist personnel working in the National Weather Service's Severe Local Storm Spotter Networks in identifying and reporting severe local storms. Provided are pictures of cloud types for severe storms including tornadoes, hail, thunder, lightning, heavy rains, and waterspouts. Instructions for key indications to watch for…

  15. Motivations and sensation seeking characteristics of recreational storm chasers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shuangyu Xu; Sonja Wilhelm Stanis; Carla Barbieri; Jiawen. Chen

    2012-01-01

    Little is known about recreational storm chasing, a type of risk recreation that has increased in popularity since the 1990s. This study was conducted to understand factors associated with participation in recreational storm chasing in the United States. Particularly, this study assessed the motivations and sensation seeking attributes of recreational storm chasers, as...

  16. No Calm After the Storm: A Systematic Review of Human Health Following Flood and Storm Disasters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saulnier, Dell D; Brolin Ribacke, Kim; von Schreeb, Johan

    2017-10-01

    Introduction How the burden of disease varies during different phases after floods and after storms is essential in order to guide a medical response, but it has not been well-described. The objective of this review was to elucidate the health problems following flood and storm disasters. A literature search of the databases Medline (US National Library of Medicine, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA); Cinahl (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Global Health (EBSCO Information Services; Ipswich, Massachusetts USA); Web of Science Core Collection (Thomson Reuters; New York, New York USA); Embase (Elsevier; Amsterdam, Netherlands); and PubMed (National Center for Biotechnology Information, National Institutes of Health; Bethesda, Maryland USA) was conducted in June 2015 for English-language research articles on morbidity or mortality and flood or storm disasters. Articles on mental health, interventions, and rescue or health care workers were excluded. Data were extracted from articles that met the eligibility criteria and analyzed by narrative synthesis. The review included 113 studies. Poisonings, wounds, gastrointestinal infections, and skin or soft tissue infections all increased after storms. Gastrointestinal infections were more frequent after floods. Leptospirosis and diabetes-related complications increased after both. The majority of changes occurred within four weeks of floods or storms. Health changes differently after floods and after storms. There is a lack of data on the health effects of floods alone, long-term changes in health, and the strength of the association between disasters and health problems. This review highlights areas of consideration for medical response and the need for high-quality, systematic research in this area. Saulnier DD , Brolin Ribacke K , von Schreeb J . No calm after the storm: a systematic review of human health following flood and storm disasters. Prehosp Disaster Med. 2017;32(5):568-579.

  17. Testing the ``tropical storm'' hypothesis of Yucatan Peninsula climate variability during the Maya Terminal Classic Period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina-Elizalde, Martín; Polanco-Martínez, Josué Moises; Lases-Hernández, Fernanda; Bradley, Raymond; Burns, Stephen

    2016-09-01

    We examine the "tropical storm" hypothesis that precipitation variability in the Yucatan Peninsula (YP) was linked to the frequency of tropical cyclones during the demise of the Classic Maya civilization, in the Terminal Classic Period (TCP, AD 750-950). Evidence that supports the hypothesis includes: (1) a positive relationship between tropical storm frequency and precipitation amount over the YP today (proof of feasibility), (2) a statistically significant correlation between a stalagmite (Chaac) quantitative precipitation record from the YP and the number of named tropical cyclones affecting this region today (1852-2004) (calibration sensu lato), and, (3) correlations between the stalagmite Chaac precipitation record and an Atlantic basin tropical cyclone count record and two proxy records of shifts in macro-scale climate and ocean states that influence Atlantic tropical cyclongenesis. At face value, regional paleotempestology proxy records suggest that tropical storm activity in the YP was either similar or significantly lower than today during the TCP. The "tropical storm" hypothesis has implications for our understanding of the role the hydrological cycle played in the collapse of Classic Maya polities and the role of tropical storms in possibly ameliorating future drought in the YP and other tropical regions.

  18. Severe Extra-tropical Storms Under Climate Change And Related Impacts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leckebusch, G. C.; Ulbrich, U.; Pinto, J. G.; Donat, M.

    2007-12-01

    Winter storms caused by extra-tropical cyclones over the Northeast Pacific and the Northeast Atlantic basins are important factors for property losses caused by natural hazards over Europe and North-America. The European storm series in early 1990 and late 1999 led to enormous economic damages (US-14.2 bn and 18.5 bn, respectively) and insured claims (US-9.8 bn and 10.75 bn, respectively). Although significant trends in North Atlantic / European storm activity have not been identified for the last decades, this study provide evidence that under anthropogenic climate change the number of extreme storms could increase, whereas the total number of northern hemispheric extra-tropical cyclones may be slightly reduced. This holds true for the Northeast Pacific as well as the Northeast Atlantic basin. The results from global climate models are well recognised in wind speed analyses from regional climate models. For parts of western Central Europe an increase in frequency and intensity of extreme wind speeds are identified. In this context, the analysis of climate models from the ENSEMBLES initiative offers the unique opportunity to investigate model to model variability for GCM and RCM simulation in more horizontal detail, leading thus to measures of uncertainty. Additionally, loss potentials derived from an ensemble of global and regional climate models using a simple storm damage regression model under climate change conditions are presented. For the two European regions (United Kingdom and Germany) ensemble-mean storm-related losses are investigated. Based on GCMs the ensemble mean is found to possibly increase by up to 37%. Furthermore, the interannual variability of extreme events will increase leading to a higher risk of extreme storm activity and related losses. In order to gain more regional information, RCMs have been forced with ECMWF-ERA40 for validation, and with several GCMs under IPCC SRES scenarios for future conditions.

  19. Storms do not alter long-term watershed development influences on coastal water quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yushun; Cebrian, Just; Lehrter, John; Christiaen, Bart; Stutes, Jason; Goff, Josh

    2017-09-15

    A twelve year (2000-2011) study of three coastal lagoons in the Gulf of Mexico was conducted to assess the impacts of local watershed development and tropical storms on water quality. The lagoons have similar physical and hydrological characteristics, but differ substantially in the degree of watershed urban development and nutrient loading rates. In total the lagoons experienced 22 storm events during the period studied. Specifically, we examine (1) whether there are influences on water quality in the lagoons from watershed development, (2) whether there are influences on water quality in the lagoons from storm activity, and (3) whether water quality is affected to a greater degree by watershed development versus storm activity. The two urbanized lagoons typically showed higher water-column nitrate, dissolved organic nitrogen, and phosphate compared with the non-urbanized lagoon. One of the urbanized lagoons had higher water-column chlorophyll a concentrations than the other two lagoons on most sampling dates, and higher light extinction coefficients on some sampling dates. The non-urbanized lagoon had higher water-column dissolved oxygen concentrations than other lagoons on many sampling dates. Our results suggest long-term influences of watershed development on coastal water quality. We also found some evidence of significant storm effects on water quality, such as increased nitrate, phosphate, and dissolved oxygen, and decreased salinity and water temperature. However, the influences of watershed development on water quality were greater. These results suggest that changes in water quality induced by human watershed development pervade despite the storm effects. These findings may be useful for environmental management since they suggest that storms do not profoundly alter long-term changes in water quality that resulted from human development of watersheds. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Treatment of Storm Fears Using Virtual Reality and Progressive Muscle Relaxation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, Jessica; McCabe-Bennett, Hanna; Antony, Martin M

    2017-10-30

    The present study examined the efficacy of virtual reality (VR) exposure therapy for treating individuals with storm fears by comparing a one-session VR exposure treatment with a one-session progressive muscle relaxation (PMR) and psychoeducation session. It was predicted that there would be a reduction in storm-related fear post-treatment for individuals in both conditions, but that this reduction would be greater for those in the VR exposure condition. It was predicted that improvements would be maintained at 30-day follow-up only for those in the VR exposure condition. Thirty-six participants each received one of the two treatment conditions. Those in the PMR treatment group received approximately 30 minutes of PMR and approximately 15 minutes of psychoeducation regarding storms. Those in the VR treatment group received approximately 1 hour of VR exposure. Additionally, participants were asked to complete a pre-treatment and post-treatment 5-minute behavioural approach test to assess changes in storm fears. They were also asked to complete a measure assessing storm phobia. There was a significant interaction between treatment group and self-reported fear at post-treatment, such that fear decreased for both groups, although the reduction was stronger in the VR group. Results also showed that reductions in storm fear were maintained at 30-day follow-up for both groups. Although this study used a small non-clinical sample, these results offer preliminary support for the use of VR exposure therapy in the treatment of storm-related fear.

  1. Duration of one-lung ventilation stage, POSSUM value and the quality of post-operative analgesia significantly affect survival and length of stay on intensive care unit of patients undergoing two-stage esophagectomy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almakadma, Yasin Said; Riad, Tamer Hunein; Ayad, Ismaei I; Ibrahim, Tamer Hussein

    2013-07-01

    To analyze different factors affecting the outcome of patients undergoing Two Stage Esophagectomy (TSE) for the treatment of esophageal carcinoma (EC) while relating these factors to the length of stay on Intensive Care Unit (ILOS), mortality, and morbidity. Retrospective study of case-notes of 45 patients who underwent a TSE for resection of EC at a general district hospital in the United Kingdom (UK). These procedures were performed by the same surgical team and followed same approach, known as the Ivor-Lewis procedure. The duration of One Lung Ventilation (OLV) during TSE was found to be critical for patient's outcome. Statistical analysis suggested a potentially strong effect of the duration of OLV (range: 90-320 minutes) on the ILOS (P=0.001). The ratio OLV: Total duration of surgery (TOT) was significantly different in early post-operative (PO) deaths (within 3 months) and late deaths after the third month (P=0.032). The POSSUM value (Physiological and Operative Severity Score for Enumeration of Mortality) correlated well with ILOS (P=0.05). Regression analysis showed a strong relationship between the two variables (P=0.03). An excellent to good quality of PO analgesia allowed for shorter ILOS (P=0.023). Duration of the OLV appears as an important factor in the outcome of patients. POSSUM value could help in planning the post-operative critical care need of patients undergoing TSE. A well managed post-operative pain allowed to reduce the ILOS.

  2. Overview of the ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Keith; Wein, Anne; Alpers, Charles N.; Baez, Allan; Barnard, Patrick L.; Carter, James; Corsi, Alessandra; Costner, James; Cox, Dale; Das, Tapash; Dettinger, Mike; Done, James; Eadie, Charles; Eymann, Marcia; Ferris, Justin; Gunturi, Prasad; Hughes, Mimi; Jarrett, Robert; Johnson, Laurie; Le-Griffin, Hanh Dam; Mitchell, David; Morman, Suzette; Neiman, Paul; Olsen, Anna; Perry, Suzanne; Plumlee, Geoffrey; Ralph, Martin; Reynolds, David; Rose, Adam; Schaefer, Kathleen; Serakos, Julie; Siembieda, William; Stock, Jonathan; Strong, David; Wing, Ian Sue; Tang, Alex; Thomas, Pete; Topping, Ken; Wills, Chris; Jones, Lucile

    2011-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey, Multi Hazards Demonstration Project (MHDP) uses hazards science to improve resiliency of communities to natural disasters including earthquakes, tsunamis, wildfires, landslides, floods and coastal erosion. The project engages emergency planners, businesses, universities, government agencies, and others in preparing for major natural disasters. The project also helps to set research goals and provides decision-making information for loss reduction and improved resiliency. The first public product of the MHDP was the ShakeOut Earthquake Scenario published in May 2008. This detailed depiction of a hypothetical magnitude 7.8 earthquake on the San Andreas Fault in southern California served as the centerpiece of the largest earthquake drill in United States history, involving over 5,000 emergency responders and the participation of over 5.5 million citizens. This document summarizes the next major public project for MHDP, a winter storm scenario called ARkStorm (for Atmospheric River 1,000). Experts have designed a large, scientifically realistic meteorological event followed by an examination of the secondary hazards (for example, landslides and flooding), physical damages to the built environment, and social and economic consequences. The hypothetical storm depicted here would strike the U.S. West Coast and be similar to the intense California winter storms of 1861 and 1862 that left the central valley of California impassible. The storm is estimated to produce precipitation that in many places exceeds levels only experienced on average once every 500 to 1,000 years. Extensive flooding results. In many cases flooding overwhelms the state's flood-protection system, which is typically designed to resist 100- to 200-year runoffs. The Central Valley experiences hypothetical flooding 300 miles long and 20 or more miles wide. Serious flooding also occurs in Orange County, Los Angeles County, San Diego, the San Francisco Bay area, and other

  3. Storm extreme levels and coastal flood hazards: A parametric approach on the French coast of Languedoc (district of Leucate)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anselme, Brice; Durand, Paul; Thomas, Yves-François; Nicolae-Lerma, Alexandre

    2011-10-01

    Coastal flooding is a significant risk on the shores of Languedoc-Roussillon. The storms that periodically hit the coast can generate strong swells and storm surges. Most beach resorts, built on a low elevation dune ridge, are periodically flooded during major storms. Although risks zoning regulations take into consideration coastal flood hazards, the delineation of vulnerable areas is still insufficient and the commonly accepted threshold is regularly exceeded during most severe storms. This paper presents a method to improve the assessment of extreme storm-related water levels. It relies on fieldwork carried out in the Leucate commune (Aude), which is particularly exposed to the risk of sea level rise. It considers both storm surges and wave phenomena that occur within the surf zone (set-up and swash), calculated from the Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN ®) numerical wave model and the Stockdon formula. Water levels reached during several recent storm events have been reconstructed and simulations of submerged areas were carried out by numerical modelling.

  4. Typhoon Haiyan-Induced Storm Surge Simulation in Metro Manila Using High-Resolution LiDAR Topographic Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santiago, J. T.

    2015-12-01

    Storm surge is the abnormal rise in sea water over and above astronomical tides due to a forthcoming storm. Developing an early warning system for storm surges is vital due to the high level of hazard they might cause. On 08 November 2013, Typhoon Haiyan generated storm surges that killed over 6,000 people in the central part of the Philippines. The Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards under the Department of Science and Technology was tasked to create storm surge hazard maps for the country's coastal areas. The research project aims to generate storm surge hazard maps that can be used for disaster mitigation and planning. As part of the research, the team explored a scenario wherein a tropical cyclone hits the Metro Manila with strength as strong as Typhoon Haiyan. The area was chosen primarily for its political, economic and cultural significance as the country's capital. Using Japan Meteorological Agency Storm Surge model, FLO2D flooding software, LiDAR topographic data, and GIS technology, the effects of a Haiyan-induced tropical cyclone passing through Metro Manila was examined. The population affected, number of affected critical facilities, and potential evacuation sites were identified. The outputs of this study can be used by the authorities as basis for policies that involve disaster risk reduction and management.

  5. The analysis of dependence between extreme rainfall and storm surge in the coastal zone

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, F.; Westra, S.

    2012-12-01

    Flooding in coastal catchments can be caused by runoff generated by an extreme rainfall event, elevated sea levels due to an extreme storm surge event, or the combination of both processes occurring simultaneously or in close succession. Dependence in extreme rainfall and storm surge arises because common meteorological forcings often drive both variables; for example, cyclonic systems may produce extreme rainfall, strong onshore winds and an inverse barometric effect simultaneously, which the former factor influencing catchment discharge and the latter two factors influencing storm surge. Nevertheless there is also the possibility that only one of the variables is extreme at any given time, so that the dependence between rainfall and storm surge is not perfect. Quantification of the strength of dependence between these processes is critical in evaluating the magnitude of flood risk in the coastal zone. This may become more important in the future as the majority of the coastal areas are threatened by the sea level rise due to the climate change. This research uses the most comprehensive record of rainfall and storm surge along the coastline of Australia collected to-date to investigate the strength of dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline. A bivariate logistic threshold-excess model was employed to this end to carry out the dependence analysis. The strength of the estimated dependence is then evaluated as a function of several factors including: the distance between the tidal gauge and the rain gauge; the lag between the extreme precipitation event and extreme surge event; and the duration of the maximum storm burst. The results show that the dependence between the extreme rainfall and storm surge along the Australia coastline is statistically significant, although some locations clearly exhibit stronger dependence than others. We hypothesize that this is due to a combination of large-scale meteorological effects as

  6. Vertical compact torus injection into the STOR-M tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Dazhi

    Central fuelling is a fundamental issue in the next generation tokamak-ITER (International Thermonuclear Experimental Reactor). It is essential for optimization of the bootstrap current which is proportional to the pressure gradient of trapped particles. The conventional fusion reactor fuelling techniques, such as gas puffing and cryogenic pellet injection, are considered inadequate to fulfill this goal due to premature ionization caused by high plasma temperature and density. Compact Torus (CT) injection is a promising fuelling technique for central fuelling a reactor-grade tokamak. An accelerated CT is expected to penetrate into the core region and deposit fuel there provided the CT kinetic energy density exceeds the magnetic energy density in a target plasma. This process is complicated and involves CT penetration into an external magnetic field, a CT stopping mechanism, magnetic reconnection, and excitation of plasma waves. CTs can be injected at different angles with respect to the tokamak toroidal magnetic field, either horizontally or vertically. Normally, CTs are injected radially in the mid-plane of a tokamak. In this configuration, CTs will undergo a decelerating force due to the gradient of the tokamak toroidal magnetic field. CTs will stop inside the tokamak chamber or bunce back depending on the relation between kinetic energy density of injected CTs and the tokamak toroidal magnetic field energy density. In the case of vertical injection, deeper penetration is expected due to the absence of the gradient of the tokamak toroidal field in that direction. Experimental investigations on vertical CT injection into a tokamak will be of great significance. The aim of this thesis is to experimentally investigate the feasibility of vertical CT injection into a tokamak and effects of CTs on tokamak plasma confinements. The Saskatchewan Torus-Modified (STOR-M) tokamak is currently the only tokamak equipped with a CT injector in the world. Vertical CT injection

  7. Lightning and precipitation history of a microburst-producing storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, Steven J.; Buechler, Dennis E.; Wright, Patrick D.; Rust, W. David

    1988-01-01

    Quantitative measurements of the lightning and precipitation life cycle of a microburst-producing storm are discussed. The storm, which occurred on July 20, 1986 at Huntsville, Alabama, was studied using Doppler radar data. The storm produced 116 flashes, 6 of which were discharges to the ground. It is suggested that an abrupt decrease in the total flash rates is associated with storm collapse, and serves as a precursor to the arrival of the maximum microburst outflows at the surface. Ice-phase precipitation is shown to be an important factor in both the formation of the strong downdraft and the electrification of the storm.

  8. Advances in using satellite altimetry to observe storm surge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guoqi

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges are the major cause for coastal flooding, resulting in catastrophic damage to properties and loss of life in coastal communities. Thus it is important to utilize new technology to enhance our capabilities of observing storm surges and ultimately to improve our capacity for forecasting storm surges and mitigating damage and loss. In this talk we first review traditional methods of monitoring storm surges. We then provide examples of storm surges observed by nadir satellite altimetry, during Hurricane Sandy and Igor, as well as typhoon and cyclone events. We further evaluate satellite results against tide-gauge data and explain storm surge features. Finally, we discuss the potential of a wide-swath altimetry mission, the Surface Water and Ocean Topography (SWOT), for observing storm surges.

  9. Integration of coastal inundation modeling from storm tides to individual waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Ning; Roeber, Volker; Yamazaki, Yoshiki; Heitmann, Troy W.; Bai, Yefei; Cheung, Kwok Fai

    2014-11-01

    Modeling of storm-induced coastal inundation has primarily focused on the surge generated by atmospheric pressure and surface winds with phase-averaged effects of the waves as setup. Through an interoperable model package, we investigate the role of phase-resolving wave processes in simulation of coastal flood hazards. A spectral ocean wave model describes generation and propagation of storm waves from deep to intermediate water, while a non-hydrostatic storm-tide model has the option to couple with a spectral coastal wave model for computation of phase-averaged processes in a near-shore region. The ocean wave and storm-tide models can alternatively provide the wave spectrum and the surface elevation as the boundary and initial conditions for a nested Boussinesq model. Additional surface-gradient terms in the Boussinesq equations maintain the quasi-steady, non-uniform storm tide for modeling of phase-resolving surf and swash-zone processes as well as combined tide, surge, and wave inundation. The two nesting schemes are demonstrated through a case study of Hurricane Iniki, which made landfall on the Hawaiian Island of Kauai in 1992. With input from a parametric hurricane model and global reanalysis and tidal datasets, the two approaches produce comparable significant wave heights and phase-averaged surface elevations in the surf zone. The nesting of the Boussinesq model provides a seamless approach to augment the inundation due to the individual waves in matching the recorded debris line along the coast.

  10. The poleward shift of storm tracks under global warming: A Lagrangian perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tamarin, T.; Kaspi, Y.

    2017-10-01

    Comprehensive models of climate change projections have shown that the latitudinal band of extratropical storms will likely shift poleward under global warming. Here we study this poleward shift from a Lagrangian storm perspective, through simulations with an idealized general circulation model. By employing a feature tracking technique to identify the storms, we demonstrate that the poleward motion of individual cyclones increases with increasing global mean temperature. A potential vorticity tendency analysis of the cyclone composites highlights two leading mechanisms responsible for enhanced poleward motion: nonlinear horizontal advection and diabatic heating associated with latent heat release. Our results imply that for a 4 K rise in the global mean surface temperature, the mean poleward displacement of cyclones increases by about 0.85° of latitude, and this occurs in addition to a poleward shift of about 0.6° in their mean genesis latitude. Changes in cyclone tracks may have a significant impact on midlatitude climate, especially in localized storm tracks such as the Atlantic and Pacific storm tracks, which may exhibit a more poleward deflected shape.

  11. Characterizing storm-event nitrate fluxes in a fifth order suburbanizing watershed using in situ sensors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Richard O; Wollheim, Wilfred M; Mulukutla, Gopal K; Mineau, Madeleine M

    2014-07-15

    Land use influences the distribution of nonpoint nitrogen (N) sources in urbanizing watersheds and storm events interact with these heterogeneous sources to expedite N transport to aquatic systems. In situ sensors provide high frequency and continuous measurements that may reflect storm-event N variability more accurately compared to grab samples. We deployed sensors from April to December 2011 in a suburbanizing watershed (479 km2) to characterize storm-event nitrate-N (NO3-N) and conductivity variability. NO3-N concentrations exhibited complex patterns both within and across storms and shifted from overall dilution (source limitation) before summer baseflows to subsequent periods of flushing (transport limitation). In contrast, conductivity generally diluted with increasing runoff. Despite diluted NO3-N concentrations, NO3-N fluxes consistently increased with flow. Sensor flux estimates for the entire deployment period were similar to estimates derived from weekly and monthly grab samples. However, significant differences in flux occurred at monthly time scales, which may have important implications for understanding impacts to temporally sensitive receiving waters. Evidence of both supply (nutrient-poor) and transport (nutrient-rich) limitation patterns during storms is consistent with watersheds undergoing land use transitions. Tracking shifts in these patterns could indicate N accumulation in developing watersheds and help identify mitigation opportunities prior to N impairment.

  12. Input variable selection and calibration data selection for storm water quality regression models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sun, Siao; Bertrand-Krajewski, Jean-Luc

    2013-01-01

    Storm water quality models are useful tools in storm water management. Interest has been growing in analyzing existing data for developing models for urban storm water quality evaluations. It is important to select appropriate model inputs when many candidate explanatory variables are available. Model calibration and verification are essential steps in any storm water quality modeling. This study investigates input variable selection and calibration data selection in storm water quality regression models. The two selection problems are mutually interacted. A procedure is developed in order to fulfil the two selection tasks in order. The procedure firstly selects model input variables using a cross validation method. An appropriate number of variables are identified as model inputs to ensure that a model is neither overfitted nor underfitted. Based on the model input selection results, calibration data selection is studied. Uncertainty of model performances due to calibration data selection is investigated with a random selection method. An approach using the cluster method is applied in order to enhance model calibration practice based on the principle of selecting representative data for calibration. The comparison between results from the cluster selection method and random selection shows that the former can significantly improve performances of calibrated models. It is found that the information content in calibration data is important in addition to the size of calibration data.

  13. Thermal Tides During the 2001 Martian Global-Scale Dust Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guzewich, Scott D.; Wilson, R. John; McConnochie, Timothy H.; Toigo, Anthony D.; Bandfield, Donald J.; Smith, Michael D.

    2014-01-01

    The 2001 (Mars Year 25) global dust storm radically altered the dynamics of the Martian atmosphere. Using observations from the Thermal Emission Spectrometer onboard the Mars Global Surveyor spacecraft and Mars WRF general circulation model simulations, we examine the changes to thermal tides and planetary waves caused by the storm. We find that the extratropical diurnal migrating tide is dramatically enhanced during the storm, particularly in the southern hemisphere, reaching amplitudes of more than 20 K. The tropical diurnal migrating tide is weakened to almost undetectable levels. The diurnal Kelvin waves are also significantly weakened, particularly during the period of global expansion at Ls=200deg-210deg. In contrast, the westward propagating diurnal wavenumber 2 tide strengthens to 4-8 K at altitudes above 30km. The wavenumber 1 stationary wave reaches amplitudes of 10-12 K at 50deg-70degN, far larger than is typically seen during this time of year. The phase of this stationary wave and the enhancement of the diurnal wavenumber 2 tide appear to be responses to the high-altitude westward propagating equatorial wavenumber 1 structure in dust mixing ratio observed during the storm in previous works. This work provides a global picture of dust storm wave dynamics that reveals the coupling between the tropics and high-latitude wave responses. We conclude that the zonal distribution of thermotidal forcing from atmospheric aerosol concentration is as important to understanding the atmospheric wave response as the total global mean aerosol optical depth.

  14. On the impact of wind on the development of wave field during storm Britta

    Science.gov (United States)

    Larsén, Xiaoli Guo; Du, Jianting; Bolaños, Rodolfo; Larsen, Søren

    2017-11-01

    The observation of extreme waves at FINO 1 during storm Britta on the 1st November 2006 has initiated a series of research studies regarding the mechanisms behind. The roles of stability and the presence of the open cell structures have been previously investigated but not conclusive. To improve our understanding of these processes, which are essential for a good forecast of similarly important events offshore, this study revisits the development of storm Britta using an atmospheric and wave coupled modeling system, wind and wave measurements from ten stations across the North Sea, cloud images and Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) data. It is found here that a standard state-of-the-art model is capable of capturing the important characteristics of a major storm like Britta, including the storm path, storm peak wind speed, the open cells, and peak significant wave height ( H s ) for open sea. It was also demonstrated that the impact of the open cells has negligible contribution to the development of extreme H s observed at FINO 1. At the same time, stability alone is not sufficient in explaining the development of extreme H s . The controlling conditions for the development of Britta extreme H s observed at FINO 1 are the persistent strong winds and a long and undisturbed fetch over a long period.

  15. Farm factors associated with reducing Cryptosporidium loading in storm runoff from dairies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, W A; Lewis, D J; Pereira, M D G; Lennox, M; Conrad, P A; Tate, K W; Atwill, E R

    2008-01-01

    A systems approach was used to evaluate environmental loading of Cryptosporidium oocysts on five coastal dairies in California. One aspect of the study was to determine Cryptosporidium oocyst concentrations and loads for 350 storm runoff samples from dairy high use areas collected over two storm seasons. Selected farm factors and beneficial management practices (BMPs) associated with reducing the Cryptosporidium load in storm runoff were assessed. Using immunomagnetic separation (IMS) with direct fluorescent antibody (DFA) analysis, Cryptosporidium oocysts were detected on four of the five farms and in 21% of storm runoff samples overall. Oocysts were detected in 59% of runoff samples collected near cattle less than 2 mo old, while 10% of runoff samples collected near cattle over 6 mo old were positive. Factors associated with environmental loading of Cryptosporidium oocysts included cattle age class, 24 h precipitation, and cumulative seasonal precipitation, but not percent slope, lot acreage, cattle stocking number, or cattle density. Vegetated buffer strips and straw mulch application significantly reduced the protozoal concentrations and loads in storm runoff, while cattle exclusion and removal of manure did not. The study findings suggest that BMPs such as vegetated buffer strips and straw mulch application, especially when placed near calf areas, will reduce environmental loading of fecal protozoa and improve stormwater quality. These findings are assisting working dairies in their efforts to improve farm and ecosystem health along the California coast.

  16. Sensitivity of storm wave modeling to wind stress evaluation methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Yingjian; Yu, Xiping

    2017-06-01

    The application of the wave boundary layer model (WBLM) for wind stress evaluation to storm wave modeling is studied using Hurricane Katrina (2005) as an example, which is chosen due to its great intensity and good availability of field data. The WBLM is based on the momentum and energy conservation equations and takes into account the physical details of air-sea interaction processes as well as energy dissipation due to the presence of sea spray. Four widely-used bulk-type formulas are also used for comparison. Simulated significant wave heights with WBLM are shown to agree well with the observed data over deep water. The WBLM yields a smaller wind stress coefficient on the left hand side of the hurricane track, which is reasonable considering the effect of the sea state on momentum transfer. Quantitative results show that large differences of the significant wave height are observed in the hurricane core among five wind stress evaluation methods and the differences are up to 12 m, which is in agreement with the general knowlege that the ocean dynamic processes under storm conditions are very sensitive to the amount of momentum exchange at the air-sea interface. However, it is the depth-induced energy dissipation, rather than the wind energy input, that dominates the wave height in the shallow water region. A larger value of depth-induced breaking parameter in the wave model results in better agreement with the measurements over shallow water.

  17. Assessing Cost-effectiveness of Green Infrastructures in response to Large Storm Events at Household Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chui, T. F. M.; Liu, X.; Zhan, W.

    2015-12-01

    Green infrastructures (GI) are becoming more important for urban stormwater control worldwide. However, relatively few studies focus on researching the specific designs of GI at household scale. This study assesses the hydrological performance and cost-effectiveness of different GI designs, namely green roofs, bioretention systems and porous pavements. It aims to generate generic insights by comparing the optimal designs of each GI in 2-year and 50-year storms of Hong Kong, China and Seattle, US. EPA SWMM is first used to simulate the hydrologic performance, in particular, the peak runoff reduction of thousands of GI designs. Then, life cycle costs of the designs are computed and their effectiveness, in terms of peak runoff reduction percentage per thousand dollars, is compared. The peak runoff reduction increases almost linearly with costs for green roofs. However, for bioretention systems and porous pavements, peak runoff reduction only increases significantly with costs in the mid values. For achieving the same peak runoff reduction percentage, the optimal soil depth of green roofs increases with the design storm, while surface area does not change significantly. On the other hand, for bioretention systems and porous pavements, the optimal surface area increases with the design storm, while thickness does not change significantly. In general, the cost effectiveness of porous pavements is highest, followed by bioretention systems and then green roofs. The cost effectiveness is higher for a smaller storm, and is thus higher for 2-year storm than 50-year storm, and is also higher for Seattle when compared to Hong Kong. This study allows us to better understand the hydrological performance and cost-effectiveness of different GI designs. It facilitates the implementation of optimal choice and design of each specific GI for stormwater mitigation.

  18. The dual effect of vegetation green-up date and strong wind on the return period of spring dust storms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Jieling; Li, Ning; Zhang, Zhengtao; Chen, Xi

    2017-08-15

    Vegetation phenology changes have been widely applied in the disaster risk assessments of the spring dust storms, and vegetation green-up date shifts have a strong influence on dust storms. However, the effect of earlier vegetation green-up dates due to climate warming on the evaluation of dust storms return periods remains an important, but poorly understood issue. In this study, we evaluate the spring dust storm return period (February to June) in Inner Mongolia, Northern China, using 165 observations of severe spring dust storm events from 16 weather stations, and regional vegetation green-up dates as an integrated factor from NDVI (Normalized Difference Vegetation Index), covering a period from 1982 to 2007, by building the bivariate Copula model. We found that the joint return period showed better fitting results than without considering the integrated factor when the actual dust storm return period is longer than 2years. Also, for extremely severe dust storm events, the gap between simulation result and actual return period can be narrowed up to 0.4888years by using integrated factor. Furthermore, the risk map based on the return period results shows that the Mandula, Zhurihe, Sunitezuoqi, Narenbaolige stations are identified as high risk areas. In this study area, land surface is extensively covered by grasses and shrubs, vegetation green-up date can play a significant role in restraining spring dust storm outbreaks. Therefore, we suggest that Copula method can become a useful tool for joint return period evaluation and risk analysis of severe dust storms. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Long-duration positive ionospheric storm during the December 2006 geomagnetic storm: Ionizing effect of forbidden electrons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Suvorova, A. V.; Huang, C.-M.; Tsai, L.-C.; Dmitriev, A. V.; Ratovsky, K. G.

    2015-11-01

    The magnetosphere-ionosphere coupling at low latitudes was studied during the major geomagnetic storm on 14-16 December 2006. Data from NOAA/POES satellites were used to identify the enhancements of forbidden energetic electrons (FEE). Global Ionospheric Maps and COSMIC/FORMOSAT-3 radio occultation measurements were used for studying positive ionospheric storm phases. We found that long-lasting positive ionospheric storms were concomitant with FEE enhancements. We discussed relative contributions of the FEE ionizing effect as well as other general mechanisms to the positive ionospheric storm at different phases of the geomagnetic storm.

  20. Storm impacts on small barrier islands

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kroon, Aart; Fruergaard, Mikkel

    water levels. These storms induce collision, overwash or inundation of the barrier crest and generate wash-over fans and barrier breaching. In this presentation, we focus on the present-day morphologic evolution of these barrier islands, couple these to extreme events, and we will predict the potential......The shorelines of the Baltic Sea and the inner coastal waters in Denmark consist of many barrier islands. These sandy barrier islands were mainly formed in the Holocene and are still very dynamic. The present day changes in the morphology are dominantly governed by storm waves and associated high...... changes in this evolution due to changes in the climate and associated sea levels. We analyzed the morphologic evolution of a series of barrier islands over the last decades using maps, aerial photographs and satellite images. This decadal morphologic evolution was coupled to the frequency and intensity...

  1. Nonlinear chaotic model for predicting storm surges

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Siek

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available This paper addresses the use of the methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for building a predictive chaotic model from time series. The chaotic model predictions are made by the adaptive local models based on the dynamical neighbors found in the reconstructed phase space of the observables. We implemented the univariate and multivariate chaotic models with direct and multi-steps prediction techniques and optimized these models using an exhaustive search method. The built models were tested for predicting storm surge dynamics for different stormy conditions in the North Sea, and are compared to neural network models. The results show that the chaotic models can generally provide reliable and accurate short-term storm surge predictions.

  2. Combined Aircraft and Satellite-Derived Storm Electric Current and Lightning Rates Measurements and Implications for the Global Electric Circuit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mach, Douglas M.; Blakeslee, Richard J.; Bateman, Monte G.

    2010-01-01

    Using rotating vane electric field mills and Gerdien capacitors, we measured the electric field profile and conductivity during 850 overflights of electrified shower clouds and thunderstorms spanning regions including the Southeastern United States, the Western Atlantic Ocean, the Gulf of Mexico, Central America and adjacent oceans, Central Brazil, and the South Pacific. The overflights include storms over land and ocean, with and without lightning, and with positive and negative fields above the storms. The measurements were made with the NASA ER-2 and the Altus-II high altitude aircrafts. Peak electric fields, with lightning transients removed, ranged from -1.0 kV/m to 16 kV/m, with a mean value of 0.9 kV/m. The median peak field was 0.29 kV/m. Integrating our electric field and conductivity data, we determined total conduction currents and flash rates for each overpass. With knowledge of the storm location (land or ocean) and type (with or without lightning), we determine the mean currents by location and type. The mean current for ocean storms with lightning is 1.6 A while the mean current for land storms with lightning is 1.0 A. The mean current for oceanic storms without lightning (i.e., electrified shower clouds) is 0.39 A and the mean current for land storms without lightning is 0.13 A. Thus, on average, land storms with or without lightning have about half the mean current as their corresponding oceanic storm counterparts. Over three-quarters (78%) of the land storms had detectable lightning, while less than half (43%) of the oceanic storms had lightning. We did not find any significant regional or latitudinal based patterns in our total conduction currents. By combining the aircraft derived storm currents and flash rates with diurnal lightning statistics derived from the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) and Optical Transient Detector (OTD) low Earth orbiting satellites, we reproduce the diurnal variation in the global electric circuit (i.e., the Carnegie

  3. The 2015 St Patrick's Day Storm: Origins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlyle, Jack; van Driel-Gesztelyi, Lidia; Zuccarello, Francesco; James, Alexander; Williams, David

    2017-08-01

    The magnetic storm experienced at Earth on St. Patrick's Day 2015 had been the strongest of cycle 24 (at that time) with a measured DST of -223 nT, though it was not expected to cause much of a disturbance. In this work we study the solar source region of several peculiar eruptions, leading to the formation and destruction of various structures, in the week leading up to the storm, and determine the true sequence of events. The evolution of the magnetic flux at the solar surface is examined in order to place suspected flux-ropes into context, and the evolution of the magnetic connectivities is described alongside a PFSS model of the surrounding region. The balance between positive and negative flux directly before two key eruptions is investigated in detail, in order to ascertain whether particular trigger mechanisms are feasible explanations. As well as these magnetic investigations, the column density of plasma involved is calculated from extreme ultraviolet images, and this is used to estimate the total mass of one filament, as well as select other features relevant to the eruptions. This information is then used to comment on the energy budgets and requirements of several processes in order to best understand the underlying drivers of this event.Previous studies on the St. Patrick's Day Storm are also incorporated into this work, and an attempt is made to reconcile the disparate conclusions drawn by the scientific community as to why this storm was not only so effective, but also a major forecasting failure.

  4. Sleep in Adolescents: The Perfect Storm

    OpenAIRE

    Carskadon, Mary A.

    2011-01-01

    The perfect storm metaphor applies to sleep patterns of adolescents in the sense that developmental trajectories of biopsychosocial factors conspire to limit the quantity of sleep for many adolescents resulting in a number of negative consequences. A reduction in sleep amount from late childhood through the second decade has long been known; however, the weight of current evidence holds that sleep need does not decline across this span. Nevertheless, parents, pediatricians, and school teacher...

  5. Coastal ecosystems for protection against storm surge

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Mascarenhas, A.

    ), and over 2 lakh cattle perished and crops over 13 lakh hectares were irreversibly affected (Thapliyal et al., 2000). Reports about loss often differ. However, property damage is regional and increases with successive storms, as observed along the shorelines... 1200000 1311000 1500000 2367000 150000 250000 70000 198000 12,571,000 Crop Areas Affected (Hectares) 219135 183183 187775 162832 100505 74307 152820 196883 79212 106740 125422 221277 1,810,091 Houses Damaged 96830 116880 249893 279091 284337 95540 134841...

  6. Modeling Storm Surges Using Discontinuous Galerkin Methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-06-01

    analytical way to solve the non-linear SWE and therefore numerical methods are required. To solve this system of partial differential equations (PDE), dis...where λ , λ(q). To simplify the exposition let us describe how to solve Equation (2.20) explicitly using the Forward Euler (FE) method. FE is written as... Text , we used the shallow water wavelength equation, which is appropriate for storm surges since they typically have long wavelengths. The shallow

  7. Storm Drain Effects on Urban Flooding

    Science.gov (United States)

    2012-08-01

    GSSHA. The USGS Full Equations (FEQ) model (Franz et al. 1997), U.S. National Weather Service DWOPER (Lewis et al. 1996), SWMM (Rossman et al. 2004...surcharging) and contains multiple looped and branched pipes. Ji (1998) compared SUPERLINK output to both SWMM Extran and physical observations, with favorable...1 August 2012 14 Rossman, L. A., R. Dickinson. 2004. SWMM 5 - the Next Generation of EPA’s Storm Water Management Model. Innovative Modeling of

  8. Paracas dust storms: Sources, trajectories and associated meteorological conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Briceño-Zuluaga, F.; Castagna, A.; Rutllant, J. A.; Flores-Aqueveque, V.; Caquineau, S.; Sifeddine, A.; Velazco, F.; Gutierrez, D.; Cardich, J.

    2017-09-01

    Dust storms that develop along the Pisco-Ica desert in Southern Peru, locally known as ;Paracas; winds have ecological, health and economic repercussions. Here we identify dust sources through MODIS (Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer) imagery and analyze HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single Particles Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory) model trajectories and dispersion patterns, along with concomitant synoptic-scale meteorological conditions from National Centers for Environmental Prediction/National Center for Atmospheric Research reanalysis (NCEP/NCAR). Additionally, surface pressure data from the hourly METeorological Aerodrome Report (METAR) at Arica (18.5°S, 70.3°W) and Pisco (13.7°S, 76.2°W) were used to calculate Alongshore (sea-level) Pressure Gradient (APG) anomalies during Paracas dust storms, their duration and associated wind-speeds and wind directions. This study provides a review on the occurrence and strength of the Paracas dust storms as reported in the Pisco airfield for five-year period and their correspondence with MODIS true-color imagery in terms of dust-emission source areas. Our results show that most of the particle fluxes moving into the Ica-Pisco desert area during Paracas wind events originate over the coastal zone, where strong winds forced by steep APGs develop as the axis of a deep mid-troposphere trough sets in along north-central Chile. Direct relationships between Paracas wind intensity, number of active dust-emission sources and APGs are also documented, although the scarcity of simultaneous METAR/MODIS data for clearly observed MODIS dust plumes prevents any significant statistical inference. Synoptic-scale meteorological composites from NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data show that Paracas wind events (steep APGs) are mostly associated with the strengthening of anticyclonic conditions in northern Chile, that can be attributed to cold air advection associated with the incoming trough. Compared to the MODIS images, HYSPLIT outputs were able

  9. A Numerical Simulation (Study) of a Strong West Coast December 2014 Winter Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Smelser, I.; Xu, L.; Amerault, C. M.; Baker, N. L.; Satterfield, E.; Chua, B.

    2016-12-01

    From December 10 through December 13, 2014, a powerful winter storm swept across the western US coastal states bringing widespread power outages, numerous downed trees and power lines, heavy rains, flooding and even a tornado in the Los Angeles basin. This windstorm was the strongest since October 2009, and was similar to classic wind storms such as the 1962 Columbus Day Storm (Read, 2015).The storm started developing over the Pacific Ocean north of Hawaii on Nov. 30, and formed an atmospheric river that eventually stretched from Hawaii to the west coast. The storm initially hit the Pacific Northwest on Dec. 9th and then split. The highest precipitation amounts started in British Colombia and moved south along the coast. By the Dec. 11th, the highest precipitation amounts were near San Francisco (CA). The peak wind gust (14.4 ms-1) for Monterey (CA) occurred at 1116Z on Dec. 11th while the heaviest 6-hr precipitation (42.9 mm) occurred between 18Z on Dec. 11th to 00Z on Dec. 12th. By Dec. 12th, the storm was centered over Southern California.This storm was poorly forecast by many operational NWP models even 2-3 days in advance (Mass, 2014). The NCEP Global Forecast System (GFS) showed considerably variability between successive model runs, and significant differences existed between Environment Canada, UK Met Office and ECMWF model forecasts. To study this extreme weather event, we used the Navy global (NAVGEM) and mesoscale (COAMPS®) NWP models, and compared the resulting forecasts to observations, satellite imagery and ECMWF (TIGGE) forecasts. NAVGEM, with Hybrid 4DVar, was run with a resolution of 31 km, and generated the boundary conditions for COAMPS® 4DVar and forecasts, that were run with triple-nested grids of 27, 9, and 3 km. The MesoWest data from the University of Utah were used for forecast verification, and to locate the times of highest precipitation and wind speed for different points along the coast. Both the online API and the python module were

  10. Influence of Closing Storm Surge Barrier on Extreme Water Levels and Water Exchange; The Limfjord, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nørgaard, Jørgen Quvang Harck; Bentzen, Thomas Ruby; Larsen, Torben

    2014-01-01

    The Limfjord is the largest Danish estuary and is connected to both the North Sea in the west and the Kattegat in the east. The connection to the North Sea was formed in 1825 by a storm surge, and has since been kept open partly artificially. The debate about the climate changes and thereby...... the increased risk of flooding in the estuary has revitalized the discussion whether this connection should be closed. In this paper, it is shown by numerical simulation that the establishment of a storm surge barrier across Thyborøn Channel can significantly reduce the peak water levels in the central...... of the fjord. The reduction is obtained by blocking the ingoing flow with a sluice in due time before the storm surge peaks in the North Sea. In order to avoid problems with reduced water quality and salinity, the water exchange should be controlled by only keeping the sluice open for ingoing currents...

  11. Role of neutral wind and storm time electric fields inferred from the storm time ionization distribution at low latitudes: in-situ measurements by Indian satellite SROSS-C2

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Subrahmanyam

    2005-11-01

    Full Text Available Recently, there has been a renewal of interest in the study of the effects of solar weather events on the ionization redistribution and irregularity generation. The observed changes at low and equatorial latitudes are rather complex and are noted to be a function of location, the time of the storm onset and its intensity, and various other characteristics of the geomagnetic storms triggered by solar weather events. At these latitudes, the effects of geomagnetic storms are basically due to (a direct penetration of the magnetospheric electric fields to low latitudes, (b development of disturbance dynamo, (c changes in atmospheric neutral winds at ionospheric level and (d changes in neutral composition triggered by the storm time atmospheric heating.

    In the present study an attempt is made to further understand some of the observed storm time effects in terms of storm time changes in zonal electric fields and meridional neutral winds. For this purpose, observations made by the Retarding Potential Analyzer (RPA payload on board the Indian satellite SROSS-C2 are examined for four prominent geomagnetic storm events that occurred during the high solar activity period of 1997-2000. Available simultaneous observations, from the GPS satellite network, are also used. The daytime passes of SROSS-C2 have been selected to examine the redistribution of ionization in the equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA region. In general, EIA is observed to be weakened 12-24 h after the main phase onset (MPO of the storm. The storm time behaviour inferred by SROSS-C2 and the GPS satellite network during the geomagnetic storm of 13 November 1998, for which simultaneous observations are available, is found to be consistent. Storm time changes in the delay of received GPS signals are noted to be ~1-3 m, which is a significant component of the total delay observed on a quiet day.

    An attempt is made to identify and

  12. Response of animal and vegetative cells to the effect of a typical magnetic storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Talikina, M. G.; Izyumov, Yu. G.; Krylov, V. V.

    2013-12-01

    Experimentally reproduced fluctuations of a low-frequency magnetic field in a nanotesla range (magnetic storm) affect the mitosis of animals and vegetative cells. Action of this factor during twenty four hours leads to a significant increase in the proliferative activity of embryo cells in roach ( Rutilus rutilus L.) and meristem cells of onion rootlets ( Allium cepa). The clastogenic effect statistically confirmed only in the Allium test seems to reflect the species specificity of the response and higher sensitivity of the cell association of the onion meristem to magnetic storm.

  13. Effects of storm events on the shelf-to-basin sediment transport in the southwestern end of the Gulf of Lions (Northwestern Mediterranean

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Palanques

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available Shelf-to-basin sediment transport during storms was studied at the southwestern end of the Gulf of Lions from November 2003 to March 2004. Waves, near-bottom currents, temperature and sediment fluxes were measured on the inner shelf at 28-m depth, in the Cap de Creus submarine canyon head at 300-m depth and in the northwestern Mediterranean basin at 2350-m depth. This paper is a synthesis of results published separately in different papers; it includes some new data and focusses on the subject of storms. It is the first paper in which simultaneous data about the effect of storms on the shelf, the slope and in the basin are shown together. During the winter studied, there were two severe E-SE storms with significant wave heights ≥ 7 m: one in December 2003 and one in February 2004. During these storms, coastal water was exported off-shelf producing strong near-bottom currents (up to 82 cm s−1 at the canyon head that resuspended sediment and increased the downcanyon sediment fluxes by several orders of magnitude. The suspended sediment flux increase in the canyon head was much larger during the February storm than during the December storm. At the deep basin site, particle fluxes also increased drastically (1–2 orders of magnitude immediately after the February storm but not after the December storm. The reason was that the February storm was reinforced by dense shelf water cascading and was long enough (43 h to transfer large amounts of resuspended sediment from shallow shelf areas to the canyon head and from there to the northwestern Mediterranean basin. Thus, in the western Gulf of Lions, severe winter E-SE storms occurring during the dense shelf water cascading period can significantly increase the transfer to deep-sea (> 2000 m environments of shelf and slope resuspended material, including anthropogenic contaminants and organic matter.

  14. Changes in contaminant loading and hydro-chemical storm behavior after the Station Fire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burke, M. P.; Hogue, T. S.; Barco, J.; Wessel, C. J.

    2010-12-01

    The 2009 Station Fire, currently noted as the largest fire in Los Angeles County history, consumed over 650 square kilometers of National Forest land in the San Gabriel Mountain Range. These mountains, located on the east side (leeward) of the Los Angeles basin, are known to have some of the highest deposition rates of atmospheric pollutants in the nation. Even pre-fire, urban-fringe basins in this mountain range serve as an upstream source of contaminants to downstream urban streams. Burned watersheds undergo significant physical and chemical changes that dramatically alter hydrologic flowpaths, erosion potential, surface soil chemistry, and pollutant delivery. Much of the degradation in water quality is attributed to the extensive soil erosion during post-fire runoff events which carry large sediment loads, mobilizing and transporting contaminants to and within downstream waters. High resolution storm samples collected from a small front range watershed provide a unique opportunity to investigate the impacts of wildfire contaminant loading in a watershed that is significantly impacted by high atmospheric deposition of urban contaminates. Data includes four events from WY 2009 (pre-fire) and WY 2010 (post-fire), along with inter-storm grab samples from each storm season. Samples were analyzed for basic anions, nutrients, trace metals, and total suspended solids. Following the fire, storms with similar precipitation patterns yielded loads up to three orders of magnitude greater than pre-fire for some toxic metals, including lead and cadmium. Dramatic increases were also observed in trace metal concentrations typically associated with particulates, while weathering solute concentrations decreased. Post fire intra-storm dynamics exhibited a shift back toward pre-fire behavior by the end of the first rainy season for most of the measured constituents. Additionally, some unexpected behaviors were observed; specifically mercury loads continued to increase throughout the

  15. Climate Change Adaptation in Tokyo Bay : The Case for a Storm Surge Barrier

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Esteban, M.; Mikami, T.; Shibayama, T.; Takagi, H.; Jonkman, S.N.; Van Ledden, M.

    2014-01-01

    Increases in typhoon intensity and sea level rise could pose significant challenges to coastal defences around Tokyo Bay. In order to analyse the extent of future problems the authors determined the increase storm surge that could result from an increase in typhoon intensity and sea level rise to

  16. In-Situ Severe Storm Monitoring Utilizing the Wave Glider

    Science.gov (United States)

    Griffith, J.; Thomas, J.

    2013-12-01

    The Wave Glider (WG) is an ocean going Unmanned Surface Vehicle (USV) that harnesses mechanical energy from waves and electrical energy from solar cells to power a configurable panel of scientific instruments. With its ability to transmit sensor data to shore in near real-time via an Iridium satellite connection, the Wave Glider can be used as a remote, mobile data collection platform on the world's oceans for extended periods up to a year. In a series of trials and demonstrations, the vehicle was directed into the path of 2 hurricanes, a cyclone, and a tropical storm while transmitting oceanographic and meteorological data including wind speed, wind direction, barometric pressure, sea surface temperature and wave height. In its transit through Tropical Cyclone Freda, for example, the Wave Glider measured barometric pressure as low as 975 millibar and significant wave heights of up to 9 meters. Data from these 4 events exhibit strong correlation with independent data products such as ASCAT and NOAA's JTWC-WaveWatch III model. In all 4 events, the Wave Glider provided uninterrupted data streams in near-real time despite the extreme conditions. These data collections are solid evidence that the Wave Glider is a suitable and highly efficient platform for the observation of sea surface and lower atmospheric conditions from directly within severe storm events.

  17. Control of MHD instabilities in the STOR-M tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Chijin; Elgriw, Sayf; Hirose, Akira; STOR-M Team

    2011-10-01

    Experiments to control the MHD activities have been carried out through compact torus injection (CTI) and resonant helical coils (RHC) on the STOR-M tokamak. The MHD instabilities have been measured by Mirnov coil arrays and miniature soft X-ray (SXR) pin-hole cameras. The data have been analyzed by singular value decomposition algorithm and the spatial Fourier harmonic analysis. Injection of a high density compact torus into STOR-M induced a transient phase with reduced m = 2 Mirnov oscillation amplitude. After appearance of an m = 1 gong mode burst the m = 2 oscillation amplitude returned to its nominal level before CTI. In the RHC experiments, an m = 2 helical coil was wound outside the vacuum chamber and powered by a capacitor bank through an IGBT switch. A current pulse of a few milliseconds was applied to RHC during the plasma current plateau. Once the current amplitude reaches a threshold level, the m = 2 MHD oscillation level was significantly reduced. Addition of equilibrium poloidal magnetic field calculated by TOSCA code, an assumed magnetic island perturbation, and the vacuum magnetic field produced by RHC also showed that the island can be eliminated when the RHC current reached a certain level. NSERC and the Canada Research Chair Program

  18. Detection of Asian Dust Storm Using MODIS Measurements

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yong Xie

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Every year, a large number of aerosols are released from dust storms into the atmosphere, which may have potential impacts on the climate, environment, and air quality. Detecting dust aerosols and monitoring their movements and evolutions in a timely manner is a very significant task. Satellite remote sensing has been demonstrated as an effective means for observing dust aerosols. In this paper, an algorithm based on the multi-spectral technique for detecting dust aerosols was developed by combining measurements of moderate resolution imaging spectroradiometer (MODIS reflective solar bands and thermal emissive bands. Data from dust events that occurred during the past several years were collected as training data for spectral and statistical analyses. According to the spectral curves of various scene types, a series of spectral bands was selected individually or jointly, and corresponding thresholds were defined for step-by-step scene classification. The multi-spectral algorithm was applied mainly to detect dust storms in Asia. The detection results were validated not only visually with MODIS true color images, but also quantitatively with products of Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI and Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization (CALIOP. The validations showed that this multi-spectral detection algorithm was suitable to monitor dust aerosols in the selected study areas.

  19. Upgrade of Storm Water System Environmental Assessment Langley Air Force Base, Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    2003-05-01

    of reinforced concrete pipe and box culvert and manholes and storm drains . Pipe sizes range from 12-inch to 60-inch diameter and would include...Upgrade of Storm Water System, Langley AFB, Virginia ’ LEGEND Storm Sewer Storm Drains Upgrade of Storm Water System EA 2.0 Description of Proposed...Outfall Alternative Storm Sewer Storm Drains ERP Sites Abandoned Wastewater Treatment Plant, HTA Area Bldg. 724 Former Coal Storage Area

  20. Aerosol Particles from Dried Salt-Lakes and Saline Soils Carried on Dust Storms over Beijing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xingying Zhang

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Characteristics of individual particles from a super dust storm (DS on 20 March 2002, and those of non dust storm aero sols for Beijing (NDS and Duolun (DL (a desert area are determined using a variety of methods. In China, typically the source of aero sols in dust storms is thought to be deserts with alumino silicates being the main constituent particles; how ever, this does not reflect a complete analysis with our evidence indicating potential alternate dust sources along the storm's trans port path. Individual particle anal y sis of aero sols collected from a super dust storm on 20 March 2002 in Beijing shows that among all the 14 elements measured, only S and Cl have re mark able positive correlation. 82.5% of all particles measured contained both S and Cl, and the relative mass per cent age of S and Cl in these particles is much higher than the average of all particles. 62.0% of all particles contained S, Cl, and Na, in which the concentration of Na is 1.4 times higher than average. PMF (Positive Matrix Factorization anal y sis indicates that NaCl and Na2SO4 are major components of these particles with S and Cl showing significant positive correlation. More over, SO4 2- and Cl- also show significant positive correlation in bulk aero sol analysis. XPS (X-ray Pho to electron Spectros copy analysis of the surface of aero sols demonstrates that concentrations of Na and S on particles from the dust storm are higher than those from non-dust storm particles in Beijing and also for particles from. It is very likely that particles enriched with S, Cl, and Na is from the surface soils of dried salt-lakes and saline soils enriched with chloride and sulfate. This evidence demonstrates that be sides deserts, surface soils from dry salt-lakes and saline soils of arid and semi-arid areas are also sources of particulates in dust storms over Beijing.

  1. Weekly Cycle of Lightning: Evidence of Storm Invigoration by Pollution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bell, Thomas L.; Rosenfeld, Daniel; Kim, Kyu-Myong

    2009-01-01

    We have examined summertime 1998 2009 U.S. lightning data from the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) to look for weekly cycles in lightning activity. As was found by Bell et al. (2008) for rain over the southeast U.S., there is a significant weekly cycle in afternoon lightning activity that peaks in the middle of the week there. The weekly cycle appears to be reduced over population centers. Lightning activity peaks on weekends over waters near the SE U.S. The statistical significance of weekly cycles over the western half of the country is generally small. We found no evidence of a weekly cycle of synoptic-scale forcing that might explain these patterns. The lightning behavior is entirely consistent with the explanation suggested by Bell et al. (2008) for the cycles in rainfall and other atmospheric data from the SE U.S., that aerosols can cause storms to intensify in humid, convectively unstable environments.

  2. A global record of large storm surges and loss of life

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouwer, Laurens; Jonkman, Sebastiaan

    2017-04-01

    Storm surges can cause very high numbers of loss of life (fatalities) in single events, and these events are expected to increase due to sea-level rise and increasing population in coastal zones. However, compared to fatalities from fresh water flooding, for storm surges these fatality numbers are not consistently recorded, and often neglected in scientific assessments. In order to assess the impacts of major coastal storm surge events at the global level, we have developed a record of these events and associated loss of life. Information was compiled from the EM-DAT database for the period 1900-2013, using the two key categories of "Tropical cyclone" and "Storm surge/coastal flood", complemented with other databases and sources of information, and records of observed surge levels. We find that globally, each year on average about 8,500 people are killed and 1.3 million people are affected by storm surges. The occurrence of very substantial loss of life (>10,000 persons) from single events has decreased over time, which is in contrast with the slight increasing trends in fatalities observed for fresh water flooding. Also, there is a consistent and strong decrease in event mortality, which is the fraction of the people exposed to surges that lose their life, for all global regions, except South-East Asia. Thus, reduction in vulnerability to loss of life over time plays a significant role in storm surge impacts. We also find that for the same coastal surge water level, mortality appears to have decreased over time, showing the robustness of this finding. This quantified decline can be attributed to risk reduction efforts over the last decades, including improved forecasting, early warning and evacuation, but also improved coastal protection. These results have important implications for assessment studies on current and projected future coastal flood risk, as historical mortality fractions may not be valid to assess impacts from future events.

  3. Identifying seasonal patterns of phosphorus storm dynamics with dynamic time warping

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dupas, Rémi; Tavenard, Romain; Fovet, Ophélie; Gilliet, Nicolas; Grimaldi, Catherine; Gascuel-Odoux, Chantal

    2015-11-01

    Phosphorus (P) transfer during storm events represents a significant part of annual P loads in streams and contributes to eutrophication in downstream water bodies. To improve understanding of P storm dynamics, automated or semiautomated methods are needed to extract meaningful information from ever-growing water quality measurement data sets. In this paper, seasonal patterns of P storm dynamics are identified in two contrasting watersheds (arable and grassland) through Dynamic Time Warping (DTW) combined with k-means clustering. DTW was used to align discharge time series of different lengths and with differences in phase, which allowed robust application of a k-means clustering algorithm on rescaled P time series. In the arable watershed, the main storm pattern identified from autumn to winter displayed distinct export dynamics for particulate and dissolved P, which suggests independent transport mechanisms for both P forms. Conversely, the main storm pattern identified in spring displayed synchronized export of particulate and dissolved P. In the grassland watershed, the occurrence of synchronized export of dissolved and particulate P forms was not related to the season, but rather to the amplitude of storm events. Differences between the seasonal distributions of the patterns identified for the two watersheds were interpreted in terms of P sources and transport pathways. The DTW-based clustering algorithm used in this study proved useful for identifying common patterns in water quality time series and for isolating unusual events. It will open new possibilities for interpreting the high-frequency and multiparameter water quality time series that are currently acquired worldwide.

  4. Psychological stress in hydro workers of the 1998 ice storm : a longitudinal investigation (Quebec)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Benzimra, Y.

    2003-07-01

    This thesis examined occupational stress in terms of the stressful transactions that take place between workers and their workplace. In particular, it documented some of the experiences of hydro workers during the ice storm of 1998 which hit eastern Canada. In addition to identifying stressors, this study assessed the worker's levels of psychological stress and distress 5 and 10 months following the storm. It also examined differences in psychological stress and distress levels between workers with different levels of exposure to the storm. The added contribution of appraised extra-organization stressors to the prediction of psychological stress was also assessed along with the added contribution of extra-organizational sources of support to the prediction of psychological stress. The objective was to test an integrative model of workplace stress and overall distress to better understand the relationship between psychological stress and distress levels over time. Two phases of data, 5 months apart, were collected from full-time employees of Hydro-Quebec, including both men and women who filled out questionnaires about perceived social support and other indicators of overall stress. The results revealed different experiences of the recovery effort workers during and after the ice storm. The experiences of different groups of workers varied depending on the type and degree of involvement in the recovery efforts from the storm. The results emphasized the importance of considering appraised organization stressors when predicting psychological stress. The study revealed that psychological stress 5 months following the ice storm did not add significantly to the prediction of psychological distress 5 months later, once the contribution of psychological distress at the first phase was accounted for.

  5. Rapid assessment tool for tropical cyclone waves and storm surge hazards in Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Appendini, Christian M.; Rosengaus, Michel; Meza-Padilla, Rafael; Camacho-Magaña, Victor

    2017-04-01

    Mexico is under the constant threat of tropical cyclones generated in the Atlantic and the Eastern Pacific oceans. While the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in Miami is responsible for the forecast of tropical cyclones in both basins and providing watch and warning areas information for Mexico, Central America and the Caribbean, they are not responsible to issue waves and storm surge hazards. This work presents a quick assessment tool for waves and storm surge hazards developed under conditions that are common to developing countries: tight budget and time constraints, as well as limited numerical modeling capabilities. The system is based on 3100 synthetic tropical cyclones doing landfall in Mexico. Hydrodynamic and wave models were driven by the synthetic events to create a robust database composed of maximum envelops of wind speed, significant wave height and storm surge for each event. The results were incorporated into a forecast system that uses the NHC advisory to locate the synthetic events passing inside specified radiuses for the present and forecast position of the real event. Using limited computer resources, the system displays the information meeting the search criteria, and the forecaster can select specific events to generate the desired hazard map (i.e. wind, waves, and storm surge) based on the maximum envelop maps. This system was developed in a limited time frame to be operational in 2015 by the Hurricane and Severe Storms Unit of the Mexican National Weather Service, and represents a pilot project for other countries in the region not covered by detailed storm surge and waves forecasts.

  6. Common solar wind drivers behind magnetic storm - magnetospheric substorm dependency

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balasis, Georgios; Runge, Jakob; Daglis, Ioannis A.; Papadimitriou, Constantinos; Donner, Reik E.

    2017-04-01

    The storm-substorm relationship is one of the most controversial aspects of geospace magnetic storm dynamics and one of the unresolved topics of solar-terrestrial coupling. Here we investigate the statistical dependencies between storm and substorm indices in conjunction with multiple relevant solar wind variables with an information-theoretic causal inference approach. We find that the vertical component of the interplanetary magnetic field is the strongest driver of both storms and substorms. Importantly, this common driver explains the transfer entropy between substorms and storms found by a previous bivariate analysis. These results hold during both a year close to solar maximum (2001) and minimum (2008) and suggest that, at least based on the analyzed indices, there is no statistical evidence of a direct or indirect information transfer and, therefore, likely no physical mechanism by which substorms drive storms or vice versa.

  7. Mesoscale Coastal Behavior of a Deltaic Barrier Island: Storm-Driven Evolution and Morphodynamic Feedbacks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vespremeanu-Stroe, Alfred; Zăinescu, Florin; Tătui, Florin; Preoteasa, Luminişa

    2017-04-01

    Barrier islands and spits are among the most dynamic and vulnerable coastal features. Sacalin formed at the southernmost Danube mouth (Sfântu Gheorghe arm), representing the youngest downdrift island/spit of the Sfântu Gheorghe deltaic lobe, which previously formed several similar downdrift barrier islands during its cyclic pattern of long-term development (1400 BP - present). In this study, we document a 120 yr record of coastal changes that occurred since the emergence of Sacalin Island (1897), following a major flood, occasioned by its development through constant elongation (towards south) and backwards migration. The barrier island/spit is frequently breached in the central part (narrow inlets) and it experiences episodes of large elongation and retreat rates (up to 300 m/year and 60 m/year). Using successive georeferenced maps, satellite images and field measurements, we derived several morphodynamic indices which were analysed in correspondence with the storm climate. The coastal storms temporal variability shows four active intervals (1962-1972, 1975-1977, 1995-1998, 2002-2004) with highly intensive erosional and accretional processes, and three calm periods (1989-1994, 1999-2001, 2005-2015), with a decrease of 40-70 % of the shoreline migration rates. On the other hand, the successive barrier configurations show a distinct evolutionary pattern of its central sector, controlled by the (subaerial) barrier widths. Thus, following an extraordinary high storm (or storm season), the narrower barrier sectors will benefit from a new generation of breach deposition and washover fans. They will further contribute to the reconfiguration of the barrier on a backward position, where it attains significantly larger widths (250-500 m for the subaerial part) which for a while will inhibit the new large overwash formation able to expand the barrier into the lagoon. After such a "widening episode", the time intervals of barrier backline stability (i.e. unaffected by

  8. An intense geomagnetic storm associated with slow solar wind ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... component Bz, plasma beta and dawn-dusk electric field. Our results show the magnetic storm is a double step event: a moderate-to- weak storm which occurred during the period 20:00 UT March 31- 13:00 UT April 1 and is due to the weakly compressed magnetic fields in the sheath, and the April 1-2 intense storm which ...

  9. Results of storm activity registration in the Kola Peninsula

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Burtsev A. V.

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available Results of storm activity registration processing in the Kola Peninsula during 2013-2014 have been given. Considerable fluctuations of storm activity and unevenness of lightning discharges distribution across the region territory have been noted. It has been proposed to use a cloud-to-ground discharge density indicator taking into account their distribution in the region at an assessment of lightning protection efficiency of power generation facilities in areas with low thunder-storms intensity

  10. Characteristics of dust storm events over the western United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lei, H.; Wang, J. X. L.

    2013-05-01

    In order to better understand the characteristics of dust storm processes over the western United States, available dust storm events reported by media or recorded by NASA earth observatory are classified into four types based on the prevailing weather systems. Then these four types of dust storm events related to cold fronts, downbursts, tropical disturbances, and cyclogenesis and their selected typical representative events are examined to explore their identifiable characteristics based on in-situ and remote sensing measurements. We find that the key feature of cold front-induced dust storms is their rapid process with strong dust emissions. Events caused by rapid downbursts have the highest rates of emissions. Dust storms due to tropical disturbances show stronger air concentrations of dust and last longer than those caused by cold fronts and downbursts. Finally, dust storms caused by cyclogenesis last the longest. The analysis of particulate matter records also shows that the relative ratio of PM10 (size less than 10 μm) values on dust storm-days to non-dust storm-days is a better indicator of event identification compared to previous established indicators. Moreover, aerosol optical depth (AOD) measurements from both in-situ and satellite datasets allow us to capture dust storm processes. We show that MODIS AOD retrieved from the deep blue data better identify dust storm-affected areas and the spatial extension of event intensity. Our analyses also show that the variability in mass concentrations during dust storm processes captured only by in-situ observations is consistent with the variability in AOD from stationary or satellite observations. The study finally indicates that the combination of in-situ and satellite observations is a better method to fill gaps in dust storm recordings.

  11. Sanitary/Storm Drainage Characterization Survey, Hurlburt Field, FL

    Science.gov (United States)

    1990-12-01

    Volatile Halocarbons (601) From the data, it seems that most of the storm drains contained volatiles that are major components of solvents. 4 b. Metals...period of the survey. The storm drains were evaluated with the flow that they had in them at the time of the survey. If the site did not contain flow...analytical results from the sites should prove or disprove this theory. Some oil was seen in the sanitary and storm drains . The oil/water separators

  12. Surviving cyberwar

    CERN Document Server

    Stiennon, Richard

    2010-01-01

    This book examines in depth the major recent cyber attacks that have taken place around the world, discusses the implications of such attacks, and offers solutions to the vulnerabilities that made these attacks possible. Through investigations of the most significant and damaging cyber attacks, the author introduces the reader to cyberwar, outlines an effective defense against cyber threats, and explains how to prepare for future attacks.

  13. Ionospheric Effects Observed by Radio Tomography during Severe Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andreeva, Elena S.; Kunitsyn, Vyacheslav E.; Tereshchenko, Evgeniy D.; Nazarenko, Marina O.; Nesterov, Ivan A.; Tumanova, Yuila S.

    2014-05-01

    The geomagnetic storms are an important element of space weather. As known, the distributions of all ionospheric parameters are determined by the interplay of many complex diverse processes of solar-terrestrial coupling. The intervals of geomagnetic storms are marked by dramatic changes in the dynamics of the ionosphere, whose parameters experience significant disturbances. The ionospheric signatures of geomagnetic perturbations are highly diverse in both spatiotemporal scales, ranging from a few seconds to few days and from a few meters to dozen thousand kilometers, and intensity. The methods of GNSS-based radio tomography (RT) are suitable for diagnosing the spatiotemporal structure of ionospheric disturbances caused by different space-weather factors. GNSS comprise the first-generation satellite navigation systems such as low-orbiting (LO) Russian Tsikada and American Transit satellites and second-generation satellite systems such as high-orbiting GPS and GLONASS constellations. The LORT methods reconstruct two-dimensional (2D) structure of the ionospheric electron density distribution in the vertical (altitude-latitude) plane within a spatial sector spanning a few thousand km and a time interval of 10-15 min. The horizontal and vertical resolution of LORT is typically 15-25 km and 25-30 km, respectively. The HORT methods use radio transmissions from HO satellites recorded at the receiving ground network of the International Geodetic Service (IGS), which currently comprises about 2000 receivers. The HORT methods are capable of reconstructing the four-dimensional (4D) (three spatial coordinates and time) structure of the ionosphere. Generally, HORT has a spatial resolution of 100 km at best and a time step of 60-20 min. In the regions covered by dense receiving networks (e.g., in Europe, Alaska, USA), the resolution can be improved to 30-50 and the time step reduced to 30-10 min. The resolution of 10-30 km in space and up to 2 min in time is only achievable in

  14. Molar pregnancy and thyroid storm - literature review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Filipescu G. A.

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available Molar pregnancies results from a tainted fertilization process. Trophoblastic thyroidian hyper function is an unusual complication of a molar pregnancy. The degree of thyroid stimulation and the severity of clinical hyperthyroidism is directly proportional to HCG concentration. Human chorionic gonadotrophin is almost identical with TSH, luteinizing hormone (LH and follicle-stimulating hormone, this analogy in the structure will cause cross-reactivity with their receptors. Hyperthyroid status can vary from asymptomatic hyper function to thyroid storm. Dilation and curettage represents the treatment for hyperthyroidism in molar pregnancy. Awareness of this condition is important for diagnosis and treatment.

  15. Lightning parameterization in a storm electrification model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Helsdon, John H., Jr.; Farley, Richard D.; Wu, Gang

    1988-01-01

    The parameterization of an intracloud lightning discharge has been implemented in our Storm Electrification Model. The initiation, propagation direction, termination and charge redistribution of the discharge are approximated assuming overall charge neutrality. Various simulations involving differing amounts of charge transferred have been done. The effects of the lightning-produced ions on the hydrometeor charges, electric field components and electrical energy depend strongly on the charge transferred. A comparison between the measured electric field change of an actual intracloud flash and the field change due to the simulated discharge show favorable agreement.

  16. Space storms and radiation causes and effects

    CERN Document Server

    Schrijver, Carolus J

    2010-01-01

    Heliophysics is a fast-developing scientific discipline that integrates studies of the Sun's variability, the surrounding heliosphere, and the environment and climate of planets. The Sun is a magnetically variable star and for planets with intrinsic magnetic fields, planets with atmospheres, or planets like Earth with both, there are profound consequences. This 2010 volume, the second in this series of three heliophysics texts, integrates the many aspects of space storms and the energetic radiation associated with them - from causes on the Sun to effects in planetary environments. It reviews t

  17. A Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System: Development and Application in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zeng, Ziyue; Tang, Guoqiang; Long, Di; Ma, Meihong; Hong, Yang

    2016-04-01

    Flash floods and landslides, triggered by storms, often interact and cause cascading effects on human lives and property. Satellite remote sensing data has significant potential use in analysis of these natural hazards. As one of the regions continuously affected by severe flash floods and landslides, Yunnan Province, located in Southwest China, has a complex mountainous hydrometeorology and suffers from frequent heavy rainfalls from May through to late September. Taking Yunnan as a test-bed, this study proposed a Cascading Storm-Flood-Landslide Guidance System to progressively analysis and evaluate the risk of the multi-hazards based on multisource satellite remote sensing data. First, three standardized rainfall amounts (average daily amount in flood seasons, maximum 1h and maximum 6h amount) from the products of Topical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Multi-satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) were used as rainfall indicators to derive the StorM Hazard Index (SMHI). In this process, an integrated approach of the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) and the Information-Entropy theory was adopted to determine the weight of each indicator. Then, land cover and vegetation cover data from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) products, soil type from the Harmonized World Soil Database (HWSD) soil map, and slope from the Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (SRTM) data were add as semi-static geo-topographical indicators to derive the Flash Flood Hazard Index (FFHI). Furthermore, three more relevant landslide-controlling indicators, including elevation, slope angle and soil text were involved to derive the LandSlide Hazard Index (LSHI). Further inclusion of GDP, population and prevention measures as vulnerability indicators enabled to consecutively predict the risk of storm to flash flood and landslide, respectively. Consequently, the spatial patterns of the hazard indices show that the southeast of Yunnan has more possibility to encounter with storms

  18. Extreme storms, sea level rise, and coastal change: implications for infrastructure reliability in the Gulf of Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anarde, K.; Kameshwar, S.; Irza, N.; Lorenzo-Trueba, J.; Nittrouer, J. A.; Padgett, J.; Bedient, P. B.

    2016-12-01

    Predicting coastal infrastructure reliability during hurricane events is important for risk-based design and disaster planning, such as delineating viable emergency response routes. Previous research has focused on either infrastructure vulnerability to coastal flooding or the impact of changing sea level and landforms on surge dynamics. Here we investigate the combined impact of sea level, morphology, and coastal flooding on the reliability of highway bridges - the only access points between barrier islands and mainland communities - during future extreme storms. We forward model coastal flooding for static projections of geomorphic change using ADCIRC+SWAN. First-order parameters that are adjusted include sea level and elevation. These are varied for each storm simulation to evaluate relative impact on the reliability of bridges surrounding Freeport, TX. Simulated storms include both synthetic and historical events, which are classified by intensity using the storm's integrated kinetic energy, a metric for surge generation potential. Reliability is estimated through probability of failure - given wave and surge loads - and time inundated. Findings include that: 1) bridge reliability scales inversely with surge height, and 2) sea level rise reduces bridge reliability due to a monotonic increase in surge height. The impact of a shifting landscape on bridge reliability is more complex: barrier island rollback can increase or decrease inundation times for storms of different intensity due to changes in wind-setup and back-barrier bay interactions. Initial storm surge readily inundates the coastal landscape during large intensity storms, however the draining of inland bays following storm passage is significantly impeded by the barrier. From a coastal engineering standpoint, we determine that to protect critical infrastructure, efforts now implemented that nourish low-lying barriers may be enhanced by also armoring back-bay coastlines and elevating bridge approach

  19. Analysis of a Storm-induced Surge Anomaly Under Climate Change with Focus on Sea Level Rise

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagen, S. C.; Bilskie, M. V.

    2014-12-01

    The impact of sea level rise (SLR) on hurricane storm surge and wind-waves is a non-linear process (Bilskie et al., 2014). Using a high-resolution physics-based numerical model, we examine shelf wave dynamics in general and a shelf anomaly in particular under global climate change scenarios, which include SLR and potential hurricane intensification. To begin it is noted that Hurricane Dennis (2005) produced local storm surge in Apalachee Bay of six to ten feet, but the National Hurricane Center advisory for the region forecast only four to six feet of storm surge. This forecast was based on the relatively weak wind forcing along the west Florida shelf, but the additional storm-induced surge was caused by a remotely forced shelf wave that propagated along the Florida shelf as a topographic Rossby wave (Morey et al.,2006).These mesoscale processed are studied under climate change scenarios using a state-of-the-art wind-waved hurricane storm surge model (SWAN+ADCIRC) of the northern Gulf of Mexico that encompasses the off-shore regions including the western North Atlantic Ocean, Caribbean Sea, and Gulf of Mexico. The finitie element model penetrates the shoreline along Florida's "Big Bend" region, the Florida panhandle, Alabama, and the Mississippi coast with high resolution that is sufficient to describe the Gulf Intracoastal Waterway, for example. The large domain and fine mesh resolution included in the model permits the description, and non-linear interaction, of the physics associated with wind-generated waves and hurricane storm surge that produce storm-induced anomalies such as the Rossby wave generated during Hurricane Dennis. Examination of various wave statistics such as significant wave height, mean wave period and direction, and wave radiation stress gradients provide insight into future behavior of storm-induced shelf wave dynamics under global climate change scenarios. This study may impact future statistics and probability distributions for analysis of

  20. The structure of mid- and high-latitude ionosphere during September 1999 storm event obtained from GPS observations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    I. I. Shagimuratov

    Full Text Available TEC data, obtained from over 60 GPS stations, were used to study the ionospheric effects of the 12–16 September 1999 magnetic storm over Europe. The spatial and temporal changes of the ionosphere were analysed as a time series of TEC maps, which present 15 min averages of TEC. The data set consisting of GPS observations, collected by a dense network of European stations, with sampling rate of 30 s, enable the creation of TEC maps with high spatial and temporal resolution. The storm included the positive as well as the negative phase. The positive phase took place during the first storm day of 12 September 1999. The short-lived daytime TEC enhancement was observed at all latitudes. The maximal enhancement reached a factor of 1.3–1.5. On the second and third days, the negative phase of the storm developed. The TEC decrease was registered regardless of time of the day. The TEC depression exceeded 70% relative to quiet days. On the following days (15 and 16 September, a significant daytime enhancement of TEC was observed once again. The complex occurrence of the ionospheric storm was probably related to the features of development of the magnetic storm. We found out that during the storm the large and medium-scale irregularities developed in the high-latitude ionosphere. The multi-stations technique, employed to create TEC maps, was particularly successful while studying the mid-latitude ionospheric trough. We found out that the essential changes of TEC during the storm, which were registered at the auroral and sub-auroral ionosphere, were connected with the effect of the trough and its dynamics, which depends on geomagnetic activity.

    Key words. Ionosphere (ionospheric disturbances; auroral ionosphere; mid-latitude ionosphere

  1. Anticipating environmental and environmental-health implications of extreme storms: ARkStorm scenario

    Science.gov (United States)

    Plumlee, Geoffrey S.; Alpers, Charles N.; Morman, Suzette A.; San Juan, Carma A.

    2016-01-01

    The ARkStorm Scenario predicts that a prolonged winter storm event across California would cause extreme precipitation, flooding, winds, physical damages, and economic impacts. This study uses a literature review and geographic information system-based analysis of national and state databases to infer how and where ARkStorm could cause environmental damages, release contamination from diverse natural and anthropogenic sources, affect ecosystem and human health, and cause economic impacts from environmental-remediation, liability, and health-care costs. Examples of plausible ARkStorm environmental and health concerns include complex mixtures of contaminants such as petroleum, mercury, asbestos, persistent organic pollutants, molds, and pathogens; adverse physical and contamination impacts on riverine and coastal marine ecosystems; and increased incidences of mold-related health concerns, some vector-borne diseases, and valley fever. Coastal cities, the San Francisco Bay area, the Sacramento-San Joaquin River Delta, parts of the Central Valley, and some mountainous areas would likely be most affected. This type of screening analysis, coupled with follow-up local assessments, can help stakeholders in California and disaster-prone areas elsewhere better plan for, mitigate, and respond to future environmental disasters.

  2. From pre-storm activity to magnetic storms: a transition described in terms of fractal dynamics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Balasis

    2006-12-01

    Full Text Available We show that distinct changes in scaling parameters of the Dst index time series occur as an intense magnetic storm approaches, revealing a gradual reduction in complexity. The remarkable acceleration of energy release – manifested in the increase in susceptibility – couples to the transition from anti-persistent (negative feedback to persistent (positive feedback behavior and indicates that the occurence of an intense magnetic storm is imminent. The main driver of the Dst index, the VBSouth electric field component, does not reveal a similar transition to persistency prior to the storm. This indicates that while the magnetosphere is mostly driven by the solar wind the critical feature of persistency in the magnetosphere is the result of a combination of solar wind and internal magnetospheric activity rather than solar wind variations alone. Our results suggest that the development of an intense magnetic storm can be studied in terms of "intermittent criticality" that is of a more general character than the classical self-organized criticality phenomena, implying the predictability of the magnetosphere.

  3. The Use of a Statistical Model of Storm Surge as a Bias Correction for Dynamical Surge Models and its Applicability along the U.S. East Coast

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Haydee Salmun

    2015-02-01

    Full Text Available The present study extends the applicability of a statistical model for prediction of storm surge originally developed for The Battery, NY in two ways: I. the statistical model is used as a biascorrection for operationally produced dynamical surge forecasts, and II. the statistical model is applied to the region of the east coast of the U.S. susceptible to winter extratropical storms. The statistical prediction is based on a regression relation between the “storm maximum” storm surge and the storm composite significant wave height predicted ata nearby location. The use of the statistical surge prediction as an alternative bias correction for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA operational storm surge forecasts is shownhere to be statistically equivalent to the existing bias correctiontechnique and potentially applicable for much longer forecast lead times as well as for storm surge climate prediction. Applying the statistical model to locations along the east coast shows that the regression relation can be “trained” with data from tide gauge measurements and near-shore buoys along the coast from North Carolina to Maine, and that it provides accurate estimates of storm surge.

  4. Specific interplanetary conditions for CIR-, Sheath-, and ICME-induced geomagnetic storms obtained by double superposed epoch analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. I. Yermolaev

    2010-12-01

    Full Text Available A comparison of specific interplanetary conditions for 798 magnetic storms with Dst <−50 nT during 1976–2000 was made on the basis of the OMNI archive data. We categorized various large-scale types of solar wind as interplanetary drivers of storms: corotating interaction region (CIR, Sheath, interplanetary CME (ICME including both magnetic cloud (MC and Ejecta, separately MC and Ejecta, and "Indeterminate" type. The data processing was carried out by the method of double superposed epoch analysis which uses two reference times (onset of storm and minimum of Dst index and makes a re-scaling of the main phase of the storm in a such way that all storms have equal durations of the main phase in the new time reference frame. This method reproduced some well-known results and allowed us to obtain some new results. Specifically, obtained results demonstrate that (1 in accordance with "output/input" criteria the highest efficiency in generation of magnetic storms is observed for Sheath and the lowest one for MC, and (2 there are significant differences in the properties of MC and Ejecta and in their efficiencies.

  5. Large Scale Ionospheric Response During March 17, 2013 Geomagnetic Storm: Reanalysis Based on Multiple Satellites Observations and TIEGCM Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yue, X.; Wang, W.; Schreiner, W. S.; Kuo, Y. H.; Lei, J.; Liu, J.; Burns, A. G.; Zhang, Y.; Zhang, S.

    2015-12-01

    Based on slant total electron content (TEC) observations made by ~10 satellites and ~450 ground IGS GNSS stations, we constructed a 4-D ionospheric electron density reanalysis during the March 17, 2013 geomagnetic storm. Four main large-scale ionospheric disturbances are identified from reanalysis: (1) The positive storm during the initial phase; (2) The SED (storm enhanced density) structure in both northern and southern hemisphere; (3) The large positive storm in main phase; (4) The significant negative storm in middle and low latitude during recovery phase. We then run the NCAR-TIEGCM model with Heelis electric potential empirical model as polar input. The TIEGCM can reproduce 3 of 4 large-scale structures (except SED) very well. We then further analyzed the altitudinal variations of these large-scale disturbances and found several interesting things, such as the altitude variation of SED, the rotation of positive/negative storm phase with local time. Those structures could not be identified clearly by traditional used data sources, which either has no gloval coverage or no vertical resolution. The drivers such as neutral wind/density and electric field from TIEGCM simulations are also analyzed to self-consistantly explain the identified disturbance features.

  6. Investigation Of The Hydro-Meteorological Hazards Along The Bulgarian Coast Of The Black Sea By Reconstructions Of Historical Storms

    CERN Document Server

    Galabov, Vasko; Bogatchev, Andrey; Tsenova, Boryana

    2015-01-01

    Information about the hydro-meteorological parameters during the extreme sea storms is of significant importance for the sustainable development in the context of flood risk for the coastal areas. Usually there is a lack of sufficiently long history of instrumental measurements of the extreme winds, waves and storm surges. Simulation of historical storms is an important tool to evaluate the potential coastal hazards. In the absence of measured data hindcasts can satisfy the need for historical data. The wave and storm-surge regional numerical simulations have been carried out for the ten most severe storms over the Bulgarian coast of the Black Sea from the period 1972-2012. The ERA-Interim and ERA-40 reanalysis of wind at 10 m and mean sea level pressure have been downscaled with a high resolution atmospheric model ALADIN to the horizontal and time scales suitable for precise evaluation of hydro-meteorological parameters during the storms. The downscaled fields of wind and sea level pressure have been used as...

  7. Influence of potential sea level rise on societal vulnerability to hurricane storm-surge hazards, Sarasota County, Florida

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frazier, Tim G.; Wood, Nathan; Yarnal, Brent; Bauer, Denise H.

    2010-01-01

    Although the potential for hurricanes under current climatic conditions continue to threaten coastal communities, there is concern that climate change, specifically potential increases in sea level, could influence the impacts of future hurricanes. To examine the potential effect of sea level rise on community vulnerability to future hurricanes, we assess variations in socioeconomic exposure in Sarasota County, FL, to contemporary hurricane storm-surge hazards and to storm-surge hazards enhanced by sea level rise scenarios. Analysis indicates that significant portions of the population, economic activity, and critical facilities are in contemporary and future hurricane storm-surge hazard zones. The addition of sea level rise to contemporary storm-surge hazard zones effectively causes population and asset (infrastructure, natural resources, etc) exposure to be equal to or greater than what is in the hazard zone of the next higher contemporary Saffir–Simpson hurricane category. There is variability among communities for this increased exposure, with greater increases in socioeconomic exposure due to the addition of sea level rise to storm-surge hazard zones as one progresses south along the shoreline. Analysis of the 2050 comprehensive land use plan suggests efforts to manage future growth in residential, economic and infrastructure development in Sarasota County may increase societal exposure to hurricane storm-surge hazards.

  8. Highly relativistic radiation belt electron acceleration, transport, and loss: Large solar storm events of March and June 2015.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D N; Jaynes, A N; Kanekal, S G; Foster, J C; Erickson, P J; Fennell, J F; Blake, J B; Zhao, H; Li, X; Elkington, S R; Henderson, M G; Reeves, G D; Spence, H E; Kletzing, C A; Wygant, J R

    2016-07-01

    Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection-driven event occurred with a Dst (storm time ring current index) value reaching -223 nT. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm ( Dst reaching -204 nT) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high-energy ( E  ≳ 1 MeV) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 MeV in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed a rich variety of pitch angle features including strong "butterfly" distributions with deep minima in flux at α  = 90°. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported "impenetrable barrier" at L  ≈ 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E  ≳ 2.0 MeV electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Overall, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis.

  9. Highly Relativistic Radiation Belt Electron Acceleration, Transport, and Loss: Large Solar Storm Events of March and June 2015

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.; Jaynes, A. N.; Kanekal, S. G.; Foster, J.C.; Erickson, P. J.; Fennell, Joseph; Blake, J. B.; Zhao, H.; Li, X.; Elkington, S. R.; hide

    2016-01-01

    Two of the largest geomagnetic storms of the last decade were witnessed in 2015. On 17 March 2015, a coronal mass ejection-driven event occurred with a Dst (Disturbance Storm Time Ring Current Index) value reaching 223 nanoteslas. On 22 June 2015 another strong storm (Dst reaching 204 nanoteslas) was recorded. These two storms each produced almost total loss of radiation belt high-energy (E (Energy) greater than or approximately equal to 1 millielectronvolt) electron fluxes. Following the dropouts of radiation belt fluxes there were complex and rather remarkable recoveries of the electrons extending up to nearly 10 millielectronvolts in kinetic energy. The energized outer zone electrons showed a rich variety of pitch angle features including strong butterfly distributions with deep minima in flux at alpha equals 90 degrees. However, despite strong driving of outer zone earthward radial diffusion in these storms, the previously reported impenetrable barrier at L (L-shell magnetic field line value) approximately equal to 2.8 was pushed inward, but not significantly breached, and no E (Energy) greater than or approximately equal to 2.0 millielectronvolts electrons were seen to pass through the radiation belt slot region to reach the inner Van Allen zone. Overall, these intense storms show a wealth of novel features of acceleration, transport, and loss that are demonstrated in the present detailed analysis.

  10. Rising Above the Storm: DIG TEXAS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellins, K. K.; Miller, K. C.; Bednarz, S. W.; Mosher, S.

    2011-12-01

    For a decade Texas educators, scientists and citizens have shown a commitment to earth science education through planning at the national and state levels, involvement in earth science curriculum and teacher professional development projects, and the creation of a model senior level capstone Earth and Space Science course first offered in 2010 - 2011. The Texas state standards for Earth and Space Science demonstrate a shift to rigorous content, career relevant skills and use of 21st century technology. Earth and Space Science standards also align with the Earth Science, Climate and Ocean Literacy framework documents. In spite of a decade of progress K-12 earth science education in Texas is in crisis. Many school districts do not offer Earth and Space Science, or are using the course as a contingency for students who fail core science subjects. The State Board for Educator Certification eliminated Texas' secondary earth science teacher certification in 2009, following the adoption of the new Earth and Space Science standards. This makes teachers with a composite teacher certification (biology, physics and chemistry) eligible to teach Earth and Space Science, as well other earth science courses (e.g., Aquatic Science, Environmental Systems/Science) even if they lack earth science content knowledge. Teaching materials recently adopted by the State Board of Education do not include Earth and Space Science resources. In July 2011 following significant budget cuts at the 20 Education Service Centers across Texas, the Texas Education Agency eliminated key staff positions in its curriculum division, including science. This "perfect storm" has created a unique opportunity for a university-based approach to confront the crisis in earth science education in Texas which the Diversity and Innovation in the Geosciences (DIG) TEXAS alliance aims to fulfill. Led by the Texas A&M University College of Geosciences and The University of Texas Jackson School of Geosciences, with

  11. A model for the estimation of storm losses and the identification of severe winter storms in Germany

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Klawa

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available A storm loss model for Germany is presented. Input data to the model are the daily maximum gust wind speeds measured at stations distributed over the country. The individual daily peak gust values are scaled with the local climatological upper 2% quantile at each station. This scaling serves to take local conditions at the stations into account, and thus permits a simple spatial interpolation of the storm field. The next step is the computation of a loss index for each storm. It is based on the excess of (scaled wind speed over the upper 2% quantile, and on population numbers in the individual districts within Germany, with the latter serving as a proxy for the spatial distribution of values that could be affected by a storm. Using wind speeds in excess of the percentile value also serves to take spatial heterogeneity of vulnerability against storms into account. The aggregated storm index gives an estimate of the severity of an individual storm. Finally, the relation between actual loss produced by a storm and the index is estimated using published annual insurance loss due to windstorm in Germany. Index values are accumulated for each year, and the relation to actual loss is computed. The average ratio for the whole reference period is eventually used. It is shown that the interannual variability of storm-related losses can be reproduced with a correlation coefficient of r = 0.96, and even individual storm damages can be estimated. Based on these evaluations we found that only 50 storms account for about 80% of insured storm losses between 1970 and 1997.

  12. Survival After Relapse of Medulloblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Koschmann, Carl; Bloom, Karina; Upadhyaya, Santhosh; Geyer, J Russell; Leary, Sarah E S

    2016-05-01

    Survival after recurrence of medulloblastoma has not been reported in an unselected cohort of patients in the contemporary era. We reviewed 55 patients diagnosed with medulloblastoma between 2000 and 2010, and treated at Seattle Children's Hospital to evaluate patterns of relapse treatment and survival. Fourteen of 47 patients (30%) over the age of 3 experienced recurrent or progressive medulloblastoma after standard therapy. The median time from diagnosis to recurrence was 18.0 months (range, 3.6 to 62.6 mo), and site of recurrence was metastatic in 86%. The median survival after relapse was 10.3 months (range, 1.3 to 80.5 mo); 3-year survival after relapse was 18%. There were trend associations between longer survival and having received additional chemotherapy (median survival 12.8 vs. 1.3 mo, P=0.16) and radiation therapy (15.4 vs. 5.9 mo, P=0.20). Isolated local relapse was significantly associated with shorter survival (1.3 vs. 12.8 mo, P=0.009). Recurrence of medulloblastoma is more likely to be metastatic than reported in previous eras. Within the limits of our small sample, our data suggest a potential survival benefit from retreatment with cytotoxic chemotherapy and radiation even in heavily pretreated patients. This report serves as a baseline against which to evaluate novel therapy combinations.

  13. Electrical storm in systemic sclerosis: Inside the electroanatomic substrate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Casella, Michela; Carbucicchio, Corrado; Russo, Eleonora; Pizzamiglio, Francesca; Golia, Paolo; Conti, Sergio; Costa, Fabrizio; Dello Russo, Antonio; Tondo, Claudio

    2014-10-26

    We report the case of a 63-year-old woman affected by a severe form of systemic scleroderma with pulmonary involvement (interstitial fibrosis diagnosed by biopsy and moderate pulmonary hypertension) and cardiac involvement (paroxysmal atrial fibrillation, right atrial flutter treated by catheter ablation, ventricular tachyarrhythmias, previous dual chamber implantable cardioverter defibrillator implant). Because of recurrent electrical storms refractory to iv antiarrhythmic drugs the patient was referred to our institution to undergo catheter ablation. During electrophysiological procedure a 3D shell of cardiac anatomy was created with intracardiac echocardiography pointing out a significant right ventricular dilatation with a complex aneurysmal lesion characterized by thin walls and irregular multiple trabeculae. A substrate-guided strategy of catheter ablation was accomplished leading to a complete electrical isolation of the aneurism and to the abolishment of all abnormal electrical activities. The use of advanced strategies of imaging together with electroanatomical mapping added important information to the complex arrhythmogenic substrate and improved efficacy and safety.

  14. Snow Storm Blankets Southeastern U.S.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2002-01-01

    A new year's storm brought heavy snow to portions of the southeastern United States, with some regions receiving more than a foot in less than two days. By Friday, January 4, 2002, the skies had cleared, and MODIS captured this false-color image showing the extent of the snowfall. Snow cover is red, and extends all the way from Alabama (lower left), up through Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, Virginia, and Maryland, including the southern reaches of the Delmarva Peninsula (upper right). Beneath some clouds in West Virginia (top center), snow is also visible on the Allegheny Mountains and the Appalachian Plateau, although it did come from the same storm. Though red isn't the color we associate with snow, scientists often find 'false-color' images more useful than 'true-color' images in certain situations. True-color images are images in which the satellite data are made to look like what our eyes would see, using a combination of red, green, and blue. In a true-color image of this scene, cloud and snow would appear almost identical-both would be very bright white-and would be hard to distinguish from each other. However, at near-infrared wavelengths of light, snow cover absorbs sunlight and therefore appears much darker than clouds. So a false-color image in which one visible wavelength of the data is colored red, and different near-infrared wavelengths are colored green and blue helps show the snow cover most clearly.

  15. Electrical Activity in Martian Dust Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Majid, W.; Arabshahi, S.; Kocz, J.

    2016-12-01

    Dust storms on Mars are predicted to be capable of producing electrostatic fields and discharges, even larger than those in dust storms on Earth. Such electrical activity poses serious risks to any Human exploration of the planet and the lack of sufficient data to characterize any such activity has been identified by NASA's MEPAG as a key human safety knowledge gap. There are three key elements in the characterization of Martian electrostatic discharges: dependence on Martian environmental conditions, frequency of occurrence, and the strength of the generated electric fields. We will describe a recently deployed detection engine using NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) to carry out a long term monitoring campaign to search for and characterize the entire Mars hemisphere for powerful discharges during routine tracking of spacecraft at Mars on an entirely non-interfering basis. The resulting knowledge of Mars electrical activity would allow NASA to plan risk mitigation measures to ensure human safety during Mars exploration. In addition, these measurements will also allow us to place limits on presence of oxidants such as H2O2 that may be produced by such discharges, providing another measurement point for models describing Martian atmospheric chemistry and habitability. Because of the continuous Mars telecommunication needs of NASA's Mars-based assets, the DSN is the only instrument in the world that combines long term, high cadence, observing opportunities with large sensitive telescopes, making it a unique asset worldwide in searching for and characterizing electrostatic activity at Mars from the ground.

  16. Outreach Plans for Storm Peak Laboratory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hallar, A. G.; McCubbin, I. B.

    2006-12-01

    The Desert Research Institute (DRI) operates a high elevation facility, Storm Peak Laboratory (SPL), located on the west summit of Mt. Werner in the Park Range near Steamboat Springs, Colorado at an elevation 10,500 ft. SPL provides an ideal location for long-term research on the interactions of atmospheric aerosol and gas- phase chemistry with cloud and natural radiation environments. SPL includes an office-type laboratory room for computer and instrumentation setup with outside air ports and cable access to the roof deck, a full kitchen and two bunk rooms with sleeping space for nine persons. We plan to create a unique summer undergraduate education experiences for students of diversity at Storm Peak Laboratory. As stressed by the College Pathways to Science Education Standards [Siebert and McIntosh, 2001], to support changes in K-12 science education transformations must first be made at the college level, including inquiry-oriented opportunities to engage in meaningful research. These workshops will be designed to allow students to experience the excitement of science, increasing their likelihood of pursing careers within the fields of scientific education or research.

  17. Network Intrusion Detection System using Apache Storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Asif Manzoor

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Network security implements various strategies for the identification and prevention of security breaches. Network intrusion detection is a critical component of network management for security, quality of service and other purposes. These systems allow early detection of network intrusion and malicious activities; so that the Network Security infrastructure can react to mitigate these threats. Various systems are proposed to enhance the network security. We are proposing to use anomaly based network intrusion detection system in this work. Anomaly based intrusion detection system can identify the new network threats. We also propose to use Real-time Big Data Stream Processing Framework, Apache Storm, for the implementation of network intrusion detection system. Apache Storm can help to manage the network traffic which is generated at enormous speed and size and the network traffic speed and size is constantly increasing. We have used Support Vector Machine in this work. We use Knowledge Discovery and Data Mining 1999 (KDD’99 dataset to test and evaluate our proposed solution.

  18. Ionospheric Responses to the July 15 - 16, 2000 Magnetic Storm around Geographic Longitude 121E

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu-Jung Chuo

    2008-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents observed behavior of ionospheric responses using vertical total electron contents (VTEC and NmF2. The data were collected from global positioning system (GPS networks and ionosondes around the geographic longitude of 121°E from mid- to low-latitudes for the severe magnetic storm on 15 July 2000. The results show that the severe magnetic storm caused significant density depletion and a G-condition occurrence in the western Pacific region on 15 - 16 July 2000. The G-condition is observed on the ionograms at Chung-Li station around 2330 UT on July 15. Furthermore, the variation of the F-peak height (HmF2 at Cebu indicates that a zonal electric field produced an upward drift and enhanced the fountain effect from 1000 UT on July 15. The observation of a G-condition indicates that a storm-induced neutral-wind circulation was the main cause of compositional change; i.e., an increase in the N2/O ratio and its associated loss coefficients that produced a negative storm phase along the chain of geographic longitude 121°E.

  19. Storm track sensitivity to sea surface temperature resolution in a regional atmosphere model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woollings, Tim; Blackburn, Mike [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Walker Institute, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom); National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Reading (United Kingdom); Hoskins, Brian [University of Reading, Department of Meteorology, Walker Institute, Earley Gate, PO Box 243, Reading (United Kingdom); Imperial College London, Grantham Institute, London (United Kingdom); Hassell, David [University of Reading, Met Office, Hadley Centre (Reading Unit) Meteorology Building, PO Box 243, Reading, Berkshire (United Kingdom); Hodges, Kevin [University of Reading, Environmental Systems Science Center, Reading (United Kingdom)

    2010-08-15

    A high resolution regional atmosphere model is used to investigate the sensitivity of the North Atlantic storm track to the spatial and temporal resolution of the sea surface temperature (SST) data used as a lower boundary condition. The model is run over an unusually large domain covering all of the North Atlantic and Europe, and is shown to produce a very good simulation of the observed storm track structure. The model is forced at the lateral boundaries with 15-20 years of data from the ERA-40 reanalysis, and at the lower boundary by SST data of differing resolution. The impacts of increasing spatial and temporal resolution are assessed separately, and in both cases increasing the resolution leads to subtle, but significant changes in the storm track. In some, but not all cases these changes act to reduce the small storm track biases seen in the model when it is forced with low-resolution SSTs. In addition there are several clear mesoscale responses to increased spatial SST resolution, with surface heat fluxes and convective precipitation increasing by 10-20% along the Gulf Stream SST gradient. (orig.)

  20. Electromagnetic wave attenuation due to the charged particles in dust&sand (DUSA) storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dou, X. Q.; Xie, L.

    2017-07-01

    In this paper, we calculated the attenuation of the electromagnetic waves (EMWs) propagating through the dust&sand (DUSA) storms using the predicting model based on Mie theory, in which the charges carried on the DUSA particles, the ambient relative humidity (RH) and the particle size distribution are considered simultaneously. It can be found that the charges carried on the DUSA particles and the RH can change the value of the absorption and scattering efficiency, but they can't change the domain attenuation mechanism caused by the DUSA storms in the EMWs frequency regions (3 GHz, 4 GHz), (8 GHz, 40 GHz) and (75 GHz, 100 GHz). Whatever the DUSA storms are formed by equal-size particles or the mixed-size particles, the charge carried on the particle surface and the RH have a significant impact on the attenuation caused by the DUSA storms, and the change ratio of the attenuation caused by the charge or RH depends on the particle size. By the comparison of the calculated attenuation with the measured one, we found that the charges carried on the particles and the RH will be important factors to affect the attenuation of the EMWs.

  1. East China Sea Storm Surge Modeling and Visualization System: The Typhoon Soulik Case

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zengan Deng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available East China Sea (ECS Storm Surge Modeling System (ESSMS is developed based on Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS. Case simulation is performed on the Typhoon Soulik, which landed on the coastal region of Fujian Province, China, at 6 pm of July 13, 2013. Modeling results show that the maximum tide level happened at 6 pm, which was also the landing time of Soulik. This accordance may lead to significant storm surge and water level rise in the coastal region. The water level variation induced by high winds of Soulik ranges from −0.1 to 0.15 m. Water level generally increases near the landing place, in particular on the left hand side of the typhoon track. It is calculated that 0.15 m water level rise in this region can cause a submerge increase of ~0.2 km2, which could be catastrophic to the coastal environment and the living. Additionally, a Globe Visualization System (GVS is realized on the basis of World Wind to better provide users with the typhoon/storm surge information. The main functions of GVS include data indexing, browsing, analyzing, and visualization. GVS is capable of facilitating the precaution and mitigation of typhoon/storm surge in ESC in combination with ESSMS.

  2. Influence of Asian dust storms on daily acute myocardial infarction hospital admissions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Teng, Joshua Chen-Yuan; Chan, Yun-Shan; Peng, Yu-I; Liu, Tsai-Ching

    2016-01-01

    This study was the first to explore the relationship between Asian dust storm events (ADS) and acute myocardial infarction (AMI) hospital admissions by applying time series models. Nationwide population-based hospitalization claims data in Taiwan were used. There were 143,063 AMI admissions during 2000-2009. An autoregressive with exogenous variables (ARX) time series model was used to investigate the dynamic connection between AMI hospital admissions and ADS events. AMI hospitalizations significantly spiked on post-ADS day three. Among the total population, 3.2 more cases of AMI admissions occurred on post-ADS day three. When the data were stratified by age and gender, the same delayed effect was present in the male population, especially those aged 45-64 and over 74. Our study shows that although an ADS event does not cause an immediate incidence of AMI, storms may increase AMI incidence through a delayed effect. Hence, AMI prevention is not only important during a dust storm, but particularly so in subsequent days. During the days after an ADS, exposure to dust should be minimized by staying indoors as much as possible and by wearing a mask when exposure to dust is unavoidable. This is especially true for working and older adults. Nurses at local public health centers can increase awareness and promote public safety by providing health information to local communities regarding the link between dust storms and AMI. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  3. Electrification in winter storms and the analysis of thunderstorm overflight data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brook, Marx

    1993-01-01

    We have been focusing our study of electrification in winter storms on the lightning initiation process, making inferences about the magnitude of the electric fields from the initial pulses associated with breakdown, i.e., with the formation of the initial streamers. The essence of the most significant finding is as follows: (1) initial breakdown radiation pulses from stepped leaders prior to the first return stroke are very large, reaching values of 20-30 Volts/meter, comparable to return stroke radiation; and (2) the duration of the stepped leader, from the initial detectable radiation pulse to the return stroke onset, is very-short-ranging from a minimum 1.5 ms to a maximum of 4.5 ms. This past summer (June-August of 1991) we participated in the CAPE program at the Kennedy Space Center in order to acquire data on stepped leaders in summer storms with the same equipment used to get the winter storm data. We discovered that the vigorous leaders seen in winter so frequently were present in summer storms, although not as large in amplitude and certainly not as frequent.

  4. A New Method for Urban Storm Flood Inundation Simulation with Fine CD-TIN Surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhifeng Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban storm inundation, which frequently has dramatic impacts on city safety and social life, is an emergent and difficult issue. Due to the complexity of urban surfaces and the variety of spatial modeling elements, the lack of detailed hydrological data and accurate urban surface models compromise the study and implementation of urban storm inundation simulations. This paper introduces a Constrained Delaunay Triangular Irregular Network (CD-TIN to model fine urban surfaces (based on detailed ground sampling data and subsequently employs a depression division method that refers to Fine Constrained Features (FCFs to construct computational urban water depressions. Storm-runoff yield is placed through mass conservation to calculate the volume of rainfall, runoff and drainage. The water confluences between neighboring depressions are provided when the water level exceeds the outlet of a certain depression. Numerical solutions achieved through a dichotomy are introduced to obtain the water level. Therefore, the continuous inundation process can be divided into different time intervals to obtain a series of inundation scenarios. The main campus of Beijing Normal University (BNU was used as a case study to simulate the “7.21” storm inundation event to validate the usability and suitability of the proposed methods. In comparing the simulation results with in-situ observations, the proposed method is accurate and effective, with significantly lower drainage data requirements being obtained. The proposed methods will also be useful for urban drainage design and city inundation emergency preparations.

  5. Real-time analytics with Storm and Cassandra

    CERN Document Server

    Saxena, Shilpi

    2015-01-01

    If you want to efficiently use Storm and Cassandra together and excel at developing production-grade, distributed real-time applications, then this book is for you. No prior knowledge of using Storm and Cassandra together is necessary. However, a background in Java is expected.

  6. A study on precursors leading to geomagnetic storms using artificial ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Space weather prediction involves advance forecasting of the magnitude and onset time of major geomag- netic storms on Earth. In this paper, we discuss the development of an artificial neural network-based model to study the precursor leading to intense and moderate geomagnetic storms, following halo coronal.

  7. High School Students' Preconceptions and Conceptions about Tropical Storm Allison.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Belknap, Julia

    Today, many people, with no personal experience of living through a tropical storm, reside in coastal regions in harms way. This population needs to be educated about storm risks. One good venue for this is the public school system. Science educators have concluded it is important to establish a knowledge base about the ways students think and…

  8. Predicting Storm Surges: Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation, Ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siek, M.B.L.A.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate predictions of storm surge are of importance in many coastal areas. This book focuses on data-driven modelling using methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for predicting storm surges. A number of new enhancements are presented: phase space dimensionality reduction, incomplete time

  9. Predicting Storm Surges : Chaos, Computational Intelligence, Data Assimilation, Ensembles

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Siek, M.B.L.A.

    2011-01-01

    Accurate predictions of storm surge are of importance in many coastal areas. This book focuses on data-driven modelling using methods of nonlinear dynamics and chaos theory for predicting storm surges. A number of new enhancements are presented: phase space dimensionality reduction, incomplete time

  10. Rapid Assessment of Tree Debris Following Urban Forest Ice Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard J. Hauer; Angela J. Hauer; Dudley R. Hartel; Jill R. Johnson

    2011-01-01

    This paper presents a rapid assessment method to estimate urban tree debris following an ice storm. Data were collected from 60 communities to quantify tree debris volumes, mostly from public rights-of-way, following ice storms based on community infrastructure, weather parameters, and urban forest structure. Ice thickness, area of a community, and street distance are...

  11. Storm Drainage and Urban Region Flood Control Planning.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1974-10-01

    detention storage and pumping facilities. It has been reported that the investment in storm drains is three times the investment in works to protect the...flood plain and the annual damages from inadequate storm drains may well exceed the damage inflicted upon urban flood plains. Formulation of

  12. Development of storm hydrographs for three rivers within drainage ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This paper presents the development of unit and storm hydrographs for Rivers Moro, Asa and Oyun catchment. Snyder's method was used to develop the unit hydrographs; while the SCS Curve Number method was used to estimate excess rainfall values from rainfall depth of different return periods. The design storm ...

  13. Overview and Design Considerations of Storm Surge Barriers

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mooyaart, L.F.; Jonkman, S.N.

    2017-01-01

    The risk of flooding in coastal zones is expected to increase due to sea level rise and economic development. In larger bays, estuaries, and coastal waterways, storm surge barriers can be constructed to temporarily close off these systems during storm surges to provide coastal flood protection.

  14. The effect of geomagnetic storms on suicide | Gordon | African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Objectives: To correlate geomagnetic storm activity with suicide rates. Design: A retrospective analysis over a 13 year period, Janaury 1980 to December 1992. Setting: Hermanus Magnetic Observatory (data on geomagnetic storm activity), South African Central Statistical Services (data on suicide rates). Subjects: Nil.

  15. Operational slack and venture survival

    OpenAIRE

    Azadegan, Arash; Patel, Pankaj; Parida, Vinit

    2013-01-01

    Slack can act as a double-edged sword. While it can buffer against environmental threats to help ensure business continuity, slack canalso be costly and reduce profitability. In this study, we focus on operational slack, the form related to the firm’s production processes. We investigate the role of operational slack on firm survival during its venture stage, when its survival is significantly challenged by environmental threats. Specifically, we explore how change in three types of environme...

  16. Storm water runoff-a source of emerging contaminants in urban streams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xia, K.; Chen, C.; FitzGerald, K.; Badgley, B.

    2016-12-01

    Emerging contaminants (ECs) that refers to prescription, over-the-counter, veterinary, and illicit drugs in addition to products intended to have primary effects on the human body, such as sunscreens and insect repellants. Historically municipal wastewater treatment effluent has been considered to be the main source of ECs in aquatic environment. However, recent investigations have suggested urban storm water runoff as an important source of ECs in the environment. The objective of this multi-year study was to investigate the occurrence of a wide range of ECs and the special and temporal change of 4-Nonlyphenol (4-NP), an endocrine disruptor, in a stream solely impacted by the storm water runoff from Blacksburg, VA. Urban land cover has doubled during the past 15 years surrounding this. Water and sediment samples were collected periodically along the stream during a 3-year period and analyzed for 4-NP using a gas chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry and for EC screening using an ultra- performance liquid chromatography/tandem mass spectrometry. In addition, human-associated Bacteroides sp. (HF183) was analyzed to explore possible cross contamination between the sewer system and storm water collection system of the city. Fifteen ECs were detected in water samples from various locations along the stream at estimated levels ranging from low ppt to low ppb. The levels of 4-NP in the storm water sediment samples, ranging from 30-1500 µg/kg (d.w.), positively correlated with the levels of Human-associated Bacteroides sp. (HF183) in the storm water. Our study suggested: 1) collective urban activity and leaky urban sewer systems are significant sources of ECs in storm water runoff that are often untreated or with minimum treatment before flowing into urban streams; and 2) sediment transport and re-suspension can further releases accumulated ECs back into stream water during rain events, resulting in occurrence of ECs downstream and possibly in the receiving river. This

  17. Aggregation of European storm-petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus ssp. melitensis) around cage fish farms. Do they benefit from the farmś resources?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguado-Giménez, F; Sallent-Sánchez, A; Eguía-Martínez, S; Martínez-Ródenas, J; Hernández-Llorente, M D; Palanca-Maresca, C; Molina-Pardo, J L; López-Pastor, B; García-Castellanos, F A; Ballester-Moltó, M; Ballesteros-Pelegrín, G; García-García, B; Barberá, G G

    2016-12-01

    Cage aquaculture aggregates wild fauna due to food provision. Several seabirds frequent fish farms, including the European storm-petrel (Hydrobates pelagicus melitensis). This work investigates the presence of storm-petrels around two aquaculture areas interspersed between breeding colonies in western Mediterranean Sea. Contribution of aquaculture-derived resources to their diet was assessed. Storm-petrels were mist-netted at the colonies and marked by bleaching feathers. Density around aquaculture areas was estimated through visual counts. Marks recognition was conducted visually and by photo-capture. Storm-petrel regurgitates were used as target tissue to estimate diet sources contribution. Contribution of surface zooplankton, ichthyoplankton and aquaculture wastes was estimated through Bayesian mixing modelling combining carbon and nitrogen stable isotopes and fatty acids as biomarkers. Storm-petrel density was high in open-sea aquaculture area, but not observed around near shore farms. Temporal variability of storm-petrels density during the breeding season was linked to their reproductive phenology. Within the open-sea aquaculture area, bluefin tuna farm was more attractive for storm-petrels than seabream/seabass farms. Visual identification of bleaching marks was not useful. Photo-capture showed that 8.3% of the storm-petrels watched around farms were firstly trapped in some of the nearby colonies, and 91.7% were unmarked. Qualitative evidence of aquaculture-derived wastes utilization was obtained. However, its estimated contribution was low (4.3%) when compared to ichthyoplankton (61.1%) or zooplankton (34.6%). The studied open-sea farms significantly aggregated storm-petrels along their entire breeding season. Storm-petrels got a slight profit from aquaculture resources. Nevertheless, some concerns arise regarding the cost/benefit balance of the interaction. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Variation of curve number with storm depth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banasik, K.; Hejduk, L.

    2012-04-01

    The NRCS Curve Number (known also as SCS-CN) method is well known as a tool in predicting flood runoff depth from small ungauged catchment. The traditional way of determination the CNs, based on soil characteristics, land use and hydrological conditions, seemed to have tendency to overpredict the floods in some cases. Over 30 year rainfall-runoff data, collected in two small (A=23.4 & 82.4 km2), lowland, agricultural catchments in Center of Poland (Banasik & Woodward 2010), were used to determine runoff Curve Number and to check a tendency of changing. The observed CN declines with increasing storm size, which according recent views of Hawkins (1993) could be classified as a standard response of watershed. The analysis concluded, that using CN value according to the procedure described in USDA-SCS Handbook one receives representative value for estimating storm runoff from high rainfall depths in the analyzes catchments. This has been confirmed by applying "asymptotic approach" for estimating the watershed curve number from the rainfall-runoff data. Furthermore, the analysis indicated that CN, estimated from mean retention parameter S of recorded events with rainfall depth higher than initial abstraction, is also approaching the theoretical CN. The observed CN, ranging from 59.8 to 97.1 and from 52.3 to 95.5, in the smaller and the larger catchment respectively, declines with increasing storm size, which has been classified as a standard response of watershed. The investigation demonstrated also changeability of the CN during a year, with much lower values during the vegetation season. Banasik K. & D.E. Woodward (2010). "Empirical determination of curve number for a small agricultural watrshed in Poland". 2nd Joint Federal Interagency Conference, Las Vegas, NV, June 27 - July 1, 2010 (http://acwi.gov/sos/pubs/2ndJFIC/Contents/10E_Banasik_ 28_02_10. pdf). Hawkins R. H. (1993). "Asymptotic determination of curve numbers from data". Journal of Irrigation and Drainage

  19. AIRS Storm Front Approaching California (animation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    2005-01-01

    [figure removed for brevity, see original site] Click on the image for the AIRS Storm Front Approaching California Animation NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder instrument is able to peel back cloud cover to reveal 3-D structure of a storm's water vapor content, information that can be used to improve weather forecast models. In this animation the initial visible cloud image series shows a front moving toward the West Coast of the United States as a low pressure area moves into the Pacific Northwest. The 'Pineapple Express,' a stream of moisture that originates in the tropics South of Hawaii and usually crosses Mexico to enter New Mexico and Texas, has shifted Westward and is also visible moving into Baja California. The area preceding the front appears to be relatively clear in the visible images. As the view shifts from the visible to the infrared wavelengths which highlight water vapor, we see both cloud areas contain heavy burdens of moisture. The area which appears clear in the visible images is seen to contain water vapor near the coastline as well. The viewpoint then rotates so that we can see the vertical cross section of the fronts. The variability of the vertical extent of water vapor and the amount is now clearly visible. The storm moving in from the Gulf of Alaska is more heavily laden with water vapor than that moving in from the Southwest. The moisture is concentrated in the lower atmosphere. The colors indicate the amount of water vapor present. Blue areas denote low water vapor content; green areas are medium water vapor content; red areas signify high water vapor content. The vertical grid for the final frame ranges from 250 millibar pressure at the top to 1000 millibar pressure at the bottom. The top is about 10 km (6.2 miles) above the surface of the Earth. The Atmospheric Infrared Sounder Experiment, with its visible, infrared, and microwave detectors, provides a three-dimensional look at Earth's weather. Working in tandem, the three instruments

  20. Storm wave deposits in southern Istria (Croatia)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Biolchi, Sara; Furlani, Stefano; Devoto, Stefano; Scicchitano, Giovanni

    2017-04-01

    The accumulation of large boulders related to extreme waves are well documented in different areas of the Mediterranean coasts, such as in Turkey, Algeria, Egypt, Greece (Lesbos and Crete islands), France, Spain, Malta, Italy (Sicily and Apulia regions). These deposits have been associated to storm or tsunami events or both, depending on the local history. If compared to the Mediterranean Sea, the Adriatic Sea is considered a shallow basin, with very low wave energy. In particular the NE Adriatic, where Istria Peninsula (Croatia) is located, geological and geomorphological evidences of extreme wave events have never been described, as well as no tsunamis have been registered. We present the boulder deposits that have been recently found out in southern Istria, at Premantura and Marlera localities and we discuss the mechanisms that could have been responsible of the detachment and movement of these large rocky blocks from the emerged part of the coast and from the sea bottom inland. A multidisciplinary approach was adopted: geological and geomorphological surveyings, UAV and digital photogrammetric analysis, applying of the hydrodynamic equations as well as underwater profiles were carried out between 2012 and 2016. The southern Istrian coasts are composed of Cretaceous bedded limestones, sub-horizontal or gently inclined toward the sea and are exposed to southern winds, Scirocco and Libeccio, with wide fetch. The boulder deposits occur in correspondence of flat promontories or ancient quarry pavements, where the topography, together with the bedding planes and a dense fracture pattern constitute the predisposing factors of the boulder sizing and detachment. Boulder sizes, density, position and elevation have been measured in order to apply the hydrodynamic equations, which provide wave height values that can discriminate a storm from a tsunami origin. Biogenic marine encrustations, sometimes very recent, have been observed on large part of the boulders, attesting

  1. Longitudinal Hemispheric Differences During Geomagnetic Storm Times Examined with GITM

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greer, K.; Immel, T. J.; Ridley, A. J.

    2015-12-01

    Work by Immel and Mannucci [2013] has indicated that geomagnetic storms cause larger effects on the ionospheric TEC (Total Electron Count) in the American sector than anywhere else on the planet, suggesting that there is a longitude dependent (UT) effect which is important for correctly understanding the impact, structure and timing of geomagnetic storms. Using Global Ionosphere-Thermosphere Model (GITM) [Ridley et al., 2006] coupled with realistic transport, we examine the underlying mechanisms of the longitude-dependent storm enhancements. We accomplish this by using a case study storm observed on 5 August 2011 and then conducting model experiments with GITM by shifting the storm onset time over the course of 24 hours. TEC measurements, the Dst index, and IMF are used in conjunction with model output.

  2. A linear relationship between wave power and erosion determines salt-marsh resilience to violent storms and hurricanes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonardi, Nicoletta; Ganju, Neil K; Fagherazzi, Sergio

    2016-01-05

    Salt marsh losses have been documented worldwide because of land use change, wave erosion, and sea-level rise. It is still unclear how resistant salt marshes are to extreme storms and whether they can survive multiple events without collapsing. Based on a large dataset of salt marsh lateral erosion rates collected around the world, here, we determine the general response of salt marsh boundaries to wave action under normal and extreme weather conditions. As wave energy increases, salt marsh response to wind waves remains linear, and there is not a critical threshold in wave energy above which salt marsh erosion drastically accelerates. We apply our general formulation for salt marsh erosion to historical wave climates at eight salt marsh locations affected by hurricanes in the United States. Based on the analysis of two decades of data, we find that violent storms and hurricanes contribute less than 1% to long-term salt marsh erosion rates. In contrast, moderate storms with a return period of 2.5 mo are those causing the most salt marsh deterioration. Therefore, salt marshes seem more susceptible to variations in mean wave energy rather than changes in the extremes. The intrinsic resistance of salt marshes to violent storms and their predictable erosion rates during moderate events should be taken into account by coastal managers in restoration projects and risk management plans.

  3. Sleep in Adolescents: The Perfect Storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carskadon, Mary A.

    2011-01-01

    The perfect storm metaphor applies to sleep patterns of adolescents in the sense that developmental trajectories of biopsychosocial factors conspire to limit the quantity of sleep for many adolescents resulting in a number of negative consequences. A reduction in sleep amount from late childhood through the second decade has long been known; however, the weight of current evidence holds that sleep need does not decline across this span. Nevertheless, parents, pediatricians, and school teachers, it seems, long assumed that this sleep decline was an inevitable part of growing up and a normative expectation. We shall see below that the loss of sleep through adolescence is not driven by lower need for sleep but arises from a convergence of biological, psychological, and socio-cultural influences. PMID:21600346

  4. Apollo 12 - On the Ocean of Storms

    CERN Document Server

    Harland, David

    2011-01-01

    With its two moonwalks, deployment of a geophysical station and geological sampling, Apollo 12 did what many had hoped would be achieved by the first men to land on the Moon. It spectacularly demonstrated the precision landing capability required for the success of future lunar surface explorations. Apollo 12 - On the Ocean of Storms contains over 30 page of color images, including high-resolution scans recently produced by NASA from the original Hasselblad film; covers the mission from its planning through to completion; includes conversations among the crew in the spacecraft that were not transmitted; in the definitive 'popular' account of this mission. This is the first time in 40 years that the story of the Apollo 12 mission to the Moon has bene told in its entirety, using official documents, flight transcripts, and post-mission debriefing to recreate the drama.

  5. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume ...

    Science.gov (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and generate runoff and pollutant loads. The routing portion of SWMM transports this runoff through a system of pipes, channels, storage/treatment devices, pumps, and regulators. SWMM tracks the quantity and quality of runoff generated within each subcatchment, and the flow rate, flow depth, and quality of water in each pipe and channel during a simulation period comprised of multiple time steps. The reference manual for this edition of SWMM is comprised of three volumes. Volume I describes SWMM’s hydrologic models, Volume II its hydraulic models, and Volume III its water quality and low impact development models. Reference manual presenting underlying mathematics of the Storm Water Management Model - Volume III Water Quality Modules

  6. NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibeck, David G.

    2011-01-01

    NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probe (RBSP) mission, comprising two identically-instrumented spacecraft, is scheduled for launch in May 2012. In addition to identifying and quantifying the processes responsible for energizing, transporting, and removing energetic particles from the Earth's Van Allen radiation, the mission will determine the characteristics of the ring current and its effect upon the magnetosphere as a whole. The distances separating the two RBSP spacecraft will vary as they move along their 1000 km altitude x 5.8 RE geocentric orbits in order to enable the spacecraft to separate spatial from temporal effects, measure gradients that help identify particle sources, and determine the spatial extent of a wide array of phenomena. This talk explores the scientific objectives of the mission and the manner by which the mission has been tailored to achieve them.

  7. Radiation Belt Storm Probe (RBSP) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sibeck, D. G.; Fox, N.; Grebowsky, J. M.; Mauk, B. H.

    2009-01-01

    Scheduled to launch in May 2012, NASA's dual spacecraft Living With a Star Radiation Belt Storm Probe mission carries the field and particle instrumentation needed to determine the processes that produce enhancements in radiation belt ion and electron fluxes, the dominant mechanisms that cause the loss of relativistic electrons, and the manner by which the ring current and other geomagnetic phenomena affect radiation belt behavior. The two spacecraft will operate in low-inclination elliptical lapping orbits around the Earth, within and immediately exterior to the Van Allen radiation belts. During course of their two year primary mission, they will cover the full range of local times, measuring both AC and DC electric and magnetic fields to 10kHz, as well as ions from 50 eV to 1 GeV and electrons with energies ranging from 50 eV to 10 MeV.

  8. Survival after blood transfusion

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kamper-Jørgensen, Mads; Ahlgren, Martin; Rostgaard, Klaus

    2008-01-01

    of transfusion recipients in Denmark and Sweden followed for up to 20 years after their first blood transfusion. Main outcome measure was all-cause mortality. RESULTS: A total of 1,118,261 transfusion recipients were identified, of whom 62.0 percent were aged 65 years or older at the time of their first...... the SMR remained significantly 1.3-fold increased. CONCLUSION: The survival and relative mortality patterns among blood transfusion recipients were characterized with unprecedented detail and precision. Our results are relevant to assessments of the consequences of possible transfusion-transmitted disease...... as well as for cost-benefit estimation of new blood safety interventions....

  9. Nuclear War Survival Skills

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kearny, C.H.

    2002-06-24

    The purpose of this book is to provide Americans with information and instructions that will significantly increase their chances of surviving a possible nuclear attack. It brings together field-tested instructions that, if followed by a large fraction of Americans during a crisis that preceded an attack, could save millions of lives. The author is convinced that the vulnerability of our country to nuclear threat or attack must be reduced and that the wide dissemination of the information contained in this book would help achieve that objective of our overall defense strategy.

  10. Distribution Development for STORM Ingestion Input Parameters

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Fulton, John [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-07-01

    The Sandia-developed Transport of Radioactive Materials (STORM) code suite is used as part of the Radioisotope Power System Launch Safety (RPSLS) program to perform statistical modeling of the consequences due to release of radioactive material given a launch accident. As part of this modeling, STORM samples input parameters from probability distributions with some parameters treated as constants. This report described the work done to convert four of these constant inputs (Consumption Rate, Average Crop Yield, Cropland to Landuse Database Ratio, and Crop Uptake Factor) to sampled values. Consumption rate changed from a constant value of 557.68 kg / yr to a normal distribution with a mean of 102.96 kg / yr and a standard deviation of 2.65 kg / yr. Meanwhile, Average Crop Yield changed from a constant value of 3.783 kg edible / m 2 to a normal distribution with a mean of 3.23 kg edible / m 2 and a standard deviation of 0.442 kg edible / m 2 . The Cropland to Landuse Database ratio changed from a constant value of 0.0996 (9.96%) to a normal distribution with a mean value of 0.0312 (3.12%) and a standard deviation of 0.00292 (0.29%). Finally the crop uptake factor changed from a constant value of 6.37e-4 (Bq crop /kg)/(Bq soil /kg) to a lognormal distribution with a geometric mean value of 3.38e-4 (Bq crop /kg)/(Bq soil /kg) and a standard deviation value of 3.33 (Bq crop /kg)/(Bq soil /kg)

  11. Storm impacts and shoreline recovery: Mechanisms and controls in the southern North Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, S. M.; Spencer, T.; Christie, E. K.

    2017-04-01

    Storm impacts play a significant role in shoreline dynamics on barrier coastlines. Furthermore, inter-storm recovery is a key parameter determining long-term coastal resilience to climate change, storminess variability and sea level rise. Over the last decade, four extreme storms, with strong energetic waves and high still water levels resulting from high spring tides and large skew surge residuals, have impacted the shoreline of the southern North Sea. The 5th December 2013 storm, with the highest run-up levels recorded in the last 60 years, resulted in large sections of the frontline of the North Norfolk coast being translated inland by over 10 m. Storms in March and November 2007 also generated barrier scarping and shoreline retreat, although not on the scale of 2013. Between 2008 and 2013, a calm period, recovery dominated barrier position and elevation but was spatially differentiated alongshore. For one study area, Scolt Head Island, no recovery was seen; this section of the coast is being reset episodically landwards during storms. By contrast, the study area at Holkham Bay showed considerable recovery between 2008 and 2013, with barrier sections developing seaward through foredune recovery. The third study area, Brancaster Bay, showed partial recovery in barrier location and elevation. Results suggest that recovery is promoted by high sediment supply and onshore intertidal bar migration, at rates of 40 m a- 1. These processes bring sand to elevations where substrate drying enables aeolian processes to entrain and transport sand from upper foreshores to foredunes. We identify three potential sediment transport pathways that create a region of positive diffusivity at Holkham Bay. During calm periods, a general westward movement of sediment from the drift divide at Sheringham sources the intertidal bar and foredune development at Holkham Bay. However, during and following storms the drift switches to eastward, not only on the beach itself but also below the

  12. A high resolution study of a hurricane storm surge and inundation in Veracruz, Mexico

    Science.gov (United States)

    Díaz García, Ovel; Zavala Hidalgo, Jorge; Douillet, Pascal

    2014-05-01

    Veracruz is the most populated city along the Mexican shoreline of the Gulf of Mexico and also is the country's largest commercial port. In recent years the city has been affected by hurricanes of medium intensity that have provoked human casualties, property damaged and economic loss. Two of the most recent events were hurricane Karl (2010), which caused a storm surge and severe flooding, and hurricane Ernesto (2012). The purpose of this work is to study, based on high-resolution numerical simulations, scenarios of storm surge flooding using state-of-the-art open source numerical models: the Weather, Research and Forecasting (WRF), and the coupled models ADvanced CIRCulation (ADCIRC) and Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN) for weather and storm surge hindcast, respectively. We also use topography high resolution data from LIDAR and bathymetry from GEBCO 30", the Mexican Navy and nautical charts from Electrical Federal Commission. We present the validation of the models evaluating several statistical parameters against measurements from Acoustic Data Current Profilers, pressure sensors, tide gauge and meteorological stations for these events. In the case of hurricane Karl, it made landfall 15 km north of Veracruz City, reducing the maximum surge along the city shoreline. The hurricane Ernesto made landfall 200 km southeast of the city, too far to have a significant impact. We did some numerical experiments slightly changing the trajectory, reported by the best track data, for these two hurricanes with the purpose of evaluating storm surge scenarios. The results shows that the worst storm surge cases were when the tracks of this hurricanes made landfall south of the city in the range of 30 to 60 km.

  13. Characterization of Mediterranean hail-bearing storms using an operational polarimetric X-band radar

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Vulpiani

    2015-11-01

    It is based on an iterative approach that uses a very short-length (1 km moving window, allowing proper capture of the observed high radial gradients of the differential phase. The parameterization of the attenuation correction algorithm, which uses the reconstructed differential phase shift, is derived from electromagnetic simulations based on 3 years of drop size distribution (DSD observations collected in Rome (Italy. A fuzzy logic hydrometeor classification algorithm was also adopted to support the analysis of the storm characteristics. The precipitation field amounts were reconstructed using a combined polarimetric rainfall algorithm based on reflectivity and specific differential phase. The first storm was observed on 21 February when a winter convective system that originated in the Tyrrhenian Sea, marginally hit the central-eastern coastline of Sicily, causing a flash flood in Catania. Due to an optimal location (the system is located a few kilometers from the city center, it was possible to retrieve the storm characteristics fairly well, including the amount of rainfall field at the ground. Extemporaneous signal extinction, caused by close-range hail core causing significant differential phase shift in a very short-range path, is documented. The second storm, on 21 August 2013, was a summer mesoscale convective system that originated from a Mediterranean low pressure system lasting a few hours that eventually flooded the city of Syracuse. The undergoing physical process, including the storm dynamics, is inferred by analyzing the vertical sections of the polarimetric radar measurements. The high registered amount of precipitation was fairly well reconstructed, although with a trend toward underestimation at increasing distances. Several episodes of signal extinction were clearly manifested during the mature stage of the observed supercells.

  14. Characterization of dustfall in rural and urban sites during three dust storms in northern China, 2010

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lyu, Yanli; Qu, Zhiqiang; Liu, Lianyou; Guo, Lanlan; Yang, Yanyan; Hu, Xia; Xiong, Yiying; Zhang, Guoming; Zhao, Mengdi; Liang, Bo; Dai, Jiadong; Zuo, Xiyang; Jia, Qingpan; Zheng, Hao; Han, Xujiao; Zhao, Shoudong; Liu, Qi

    2017-10-01

    Dust transport and deposition processes are important for understanding the environmental risk of dust storms. This study investigated characteristics of dustfall at two rural sites and four urban sites from dust sources to downwind regions during three dust storms (DS1: March 19-22, DS2: April 24-26, DS3: May 7-10, 2010). Analysis of near-surface instantaneous maximum wind speed and prevailing wind direction revealed the dust storms bursted out from northwestern arid and semiarid regions to eastern China. Microaggregates, angular, subangular, columnar, subrounded, and spherical particles were identified by scanning electron microscope. Dust deposition flux (DDF) during the dust storms was significantly high at sites near sand deserts and sandy land. During DS2, DDF was 25.1, 9.9, 2.3, and 1.5 g m-2 in Jingbian, Shapotou, Lanzhou, and Beijing, respectively. The three dust storms contributed 7.3% of Beijing's annual dustfall in 2010, which suggests anthropogenic dust might contribute the majority of annual dustfall in urban areas. The mass medium diameter of dustfall during DS2 in Shapotou, Jingbian, Lanzhou, and Beijing was 26.1, 9.0, 16.4, and 15.5 μm, respectively. Urban dustfall contained more heavy metals, sulfur and arsenic than rural dustfall. Cadmium contamination was identified in all urban dust particles. Anthropogenic pollutants in combination with mineral dust might lead to complex environmental risk on local, regional, and global scales. China's environmental pollution control should integrate reductions in land desertification and multisource anthropogenic emissions within the context of climate change mitigation.

  15. Extreme wind storms over Europe in present and future climate: a cluster analysis approach

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Leckebusch, G.C. [Freie Univ. Berlin (Germany). Inst. fuer Meteorologie; Weimer, A. [Hannover Re, Bermuda (United Kingdom); Pinto, J.G.; Reyers, M.; Speth, P. [Koeln Univ. (Germany). Inst. fuer Geophysik und Meteorologie

    2008-02-15

    Boreal winter wind storm situations over Central Europe are investigated by means of an objective cluster analysis. Surface data from the NCEP-Reanalysis and ECHAM4/OPYC3-climate change GHG simulation (IS92a) are considered. To achieve an optimum separation of clusters of extreme storm conditions, 55 clusters of weather patterns are differentiated. To reduce the computational effort, a PCA is initially performed, leading to a data reduction of about 98 %. The clustering itself was computed on 3-day periods constructed with the first six PCs using 'k-means' clustering algorithm. The applied method enables an evaluation of the time evolution of the synoptic developments. The climate change signal is constructed by a projection of the GCM simulation on the EOFs attained from the NCEP-Reanalysis. Consequently, the same clusters are obtained and frequency distributions can be compared. For Central Europe, four primary storm clusters are identified. These clusters feature almost 72 % of the historical extreme storms events and add only to 5 % of the total relative frequency. Moreover, they show a statistically significant signature in the associated wind fields over Europe. An increased frequency of Central European storm clusters is detected with enhanced GHG conditions, associated with an enhancement of the pressure gradient over Central Europe. Consequently, more intense wind events over Central Europe are expected. The presented algorithm will be highly valuable for the analysis of huge data amounts as is required for e.g. multi-model ensemble analysis, particularly because of the enormous data reduction. (orig.)

  16. How to Recognize and Distinguish Low-Latitude Ionospheric Storms Disturbances Produced by TIDs or PPEFs During Geomagnetic Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagundes, P. R.; Ribeiro, B. A.; Kavutarapu, V.; Fejer, B. G.; Pillat, V. G.

    2016-12-01

    The effects of geomagnetic storms on ionosphere are one of the important aspects of the space weather and identifying the possible sources of these perturbations is important. Among the possible sources of ionospheric perturbations, the Travelling Ionospheric Disturbance (TID) and Prompt Penetration Electric Field (PPEF) are the most important. In this study, we present and discuss the ionospheric response in the Brazilian sector due to geomagnetic storms occurred during January 2013 and March 2015. These space weather events were investigated using a network of 100 GPS-TEC stations. It has been noticed that the VTEC was disturbed during main phase in both storms. During the first event (January), a positive ionospheric storm peak in TEC is observed first beyond the EIA crest and sometime later at low-latitude and equatorial region. This delayed response at different latitudes could be a signature of TID propagation. In this specific event a TID propagating to northwest direction with a velocity of about 200 m/s. However, during the second event (March), 3 positive ionospheric storm peaks were observed in the VTEC from equator to low latitudes during the storm main phase, but these 3 peaks do not present wave propagation characteristics. Probably, an eastward electric field penetrated at equatorial and low-latitude regions uplifts the F-region where the recombination rates are lower leading to a positive ionospheric storm. To distinguish if the positive ionospheric storm was produced by TID or PPEF, it is important to observe the positive ionospheric storm changes along the meridional direction. In case of TIDs, a meridional propagation of the disturbance wave with a phase and speed will be observed. Therefore, the perturbation occurs first beyond the EIA crest and sometime later at the low latitudes and finally at the equatorial region. In case of PPEF the positive ionospheric storm takes place almost simultaneously from beyond the EIA crest to equatorial region.

  17. Flooding Mitigation of seawalls and river embankments to storm surges in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xianwei; Wang, Xina

    2017-04-01

    The coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China are susceptible to the destructions of tropical cyclones and storm surges. The projected global warming, coastal subsidence and sea level rise together will bring about greater flooding risk to these areas. The seawall and river embankment have played a significant role in mitigating and preventing the coastal low-land areas from the impairment of storm surges flooding and wave runup. However, few risk assessment studies in this region consider the existence of seawall and river embankment and often overestimate the risk and potential economic loss and population affected due to storm surge flooding. This study utilizes a hydraulic model to simulate the overtop flooding and compare those without seawall and river embankment using several specific tropic storm events and extreme events of tropic storm surges in different return periods of 2, 10, 20, 50, 100, 200 and 500 years. Most seawalls are 4 or 5 meters plus another meter of wave levee above the local mean sea level. The river embankments are usually 4 or 5 meter higher than the local mean sea level as well and decrease from the outer estuary to the inner riverine. The modeling results considering seawall and river embankments and from real storm surges are in agreement with on-site survey and observations, while those without infusing seawall and river embankments overestimate the inundation condition and economic loss. Modeling results demonstrate that seawall and river embankment greatly reduce the flooding risk and prevent the low-land area from inundation for most tropic storm events, e.g., for extreme events less than 20 to 50 years, in the coastal areas of Guangdong Province, China. However, the seawall and river embankment may also cause catastrophic disasters once there is an engineering failure of seawalls and river embankment, especially once encountering with an extreme typhoon event, e.g., the 1969 super typhoon Viola in Shantou China and the 2005

  18. Klaus, an exceptional winter storm over Northern Iberia and Southern France - a comparison between storm diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liberato, M. L. R.; Pinto, J. G.; Trigo, I. F.; Trigo, R. M.

    2010-05-01

    The synoptic evolution and dynamical characteristics of storm "Klaus" (23 and 24 January 2009) are analysed. "Klaus" was an extratropical cyclone which developed over the subtropical North Atlantic Ocean on the 21st January 2009, then moved eastward embedded in the strong westerly flow and experienced a notorious strengthening on the 23rd January. The storm moved into the Bay of Biscay and deepened further before hitting Northern Spain and Southwestern France with gusts of up to 198 km/h. Afterwards, it steered southeastwards across Southern France into Northern Italy and the Adriatic. "Klaus" was the most intense and damaging wind storm in the region in a decade, provoked more than 20 casualties and insured losses of several billion Euros. The evolution of "Klaus" is analysed using two standard cyclone detecting and tracking schemes: a) the vorticity maxima based algorithm originally developed by Murray and Simmonds [1991], adapted for Northern Hemisphere cyclone characteristics [Pinto et al. 2005]; and b) the pressure minima based algorithm first developed for the Mediterranean region [Trigo et al. 1999; 2002] and later extended to a larger Euro-Atlantic region [Trigo 2006]. Additionally, the synoptic and mesoscale features of the storm are analysed. The vorticity based method detects the storm earlier than the pressure minima one. Results show that both tracks exhibited similar features and positions throughout almost all of their lifecycles, with minor discrepancies being probably related to different ways of both methods handling the spatio-temporal evolution of multiple candidates for cyclonic centres. In its strengthening phase, "Klaus" presents deepening rates above 37 hPa/24h, a value that after geostrophically adjusted to the reference latitude of 60°N increases to 44 hPa/24h, implying an exceptional event with bomb characteristics. During maximum intensity change within 24 hours was 1.165hPa/(deglat)2. References: Murray RJ, Simmonds I (1991) Aust

  19. Hurricane signatures and landforms—toward improved interpretations and global storm climate chronology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otvos, Ervin G.

    2011-07-01

    and marine microfossils may be also emplaced by storm-driven currents that enter unobstructed estuaries, inlets and storm breaches. Bioturbation also distorts the storm record. Significant lateral variations in the number and thickness of intercalated sand layers at closely adjacent sites suggest the importance of local differences in sources, transport and preservation processes; in the dimensions, relative positions and accessibility of sand resources inside and adjacent to coastal basins. Variations in the number, thickness, and ages of sand laminae, may not be related to the number of storms and their intensities. This may impair correlations between regionally interpreted "calm" and "intensive" phases. In partial overlap with an assumed "quiescent" storm phase, stable isotope ratios in lacustrine muds impacted by salt water influx reveal frequent hurricane activity during the last 1.5 ka as well. By mimicking effects of reduced storminess, the fewer and thinner sand laminae deposited between ~ 7.0 and 3.4 ka B.P. may be attributed to greater distances of estuarine landward transport by storm tidal currents at times of lower sea-levels.

  20. Storm Characteristics Determining Dominant Cloud-to-Ground Lightning Polarity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Detwiler, A. G.; Helsdon, J. H.

    2007-12-01

    Detailed analyses of storms from the Severe Thunderstorm Electrification and Precipitation Study (STEPS) in 2000 have established relationships between radar observables and lightning flash rate and polarity. We combine visual and in situ aircraft microphysical observations with these earlier radar analyses to establish additional relationships. In particular, we show that storms forming in an environment with the right balance between vertical shear of the horizontal wind, and convective available potential energy, develop in such a way that initial convective development occurs in relatively isolated flanking cells. When these cells develop vigorously without entraining precipitation from more mature neighboring cells, precipitation formation in the new cells is delayed. This means that precipitation finally develops at higher altitudes, higher cloud liquid water concentrations, and lower temperatures, compared to precipitation formation in storms in which new cells are less vigorous and/or entrain precipitation debris from earlier cells. The storms in which initial convective development occurs in isolated flanking cells go through an extended stage of almost purely intracloud lightning production, and then into a phase where there is a mixture of intracloud and cloud-to-ground lightning lowering positive charge. Storms in which precipitation develops earlier and lower in new cells, due to entrainment of precipitation debris from older neighboring portions of the storm, tend to produce predominantly negative cloud- to-ground lightning. The relationship between microphysical conditions in these different types of storms, and results of laboratory microphysical experiments concerning charge separation during particle collisions, are not straightforward.

  1. Reducing uncertainty - responses for electricity utilities to severe solar storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaunt, Charles Trevor

    2014-01-01

    Until recently, electricity utilities in mid- and low-latitude regions believed that solar storms had no (or only insignificant) effect on their power systems. Then it was noticed that the onset of damage in several large transformers, leading to their failure, correlated very closely with the Halloween storm of 2003. Since then engineers have started to appreciate that a very severe storm could have serious consequences outside the high-latitude regions. There are many uncertainties in predicting the effects of solar storms on electrical systems. The severity and time of arrival of a storm are difficult to model; so are the geomagnetically induced currents (GICs) expected to flow in the power networks. Published information about the responses of different types of transformers to GICs is contradictory. Measurements of the abnormal power flows in networks during solar storms generally do not take into account the effects of the current distortion and unbalance, potentially giving misleading signals to the operators. The normal requirement for optimum system management, while allowing for the possibility of faults caused by lightning, birds and other causes, limits the capacity of system operators to respond to the threats of GICs, which are not assessed easily by the N - 1 reliability criterion. A utility's response to the threat of damage by GICs depends on the expected frequency and magnitude of solar storms. Approaches to formulating a response are located in a system model incorporating space physics, network analysis, transformer engineering, network reliability and decision support and the benefits are identified. Approaches adopted in high-latitude regions might not be appropriate where fewer storms are expected to reach damaging levels. The risks of an extreme storm cannot be ignored, and understanding the response mechanisms suitable for low-latitude regions has the capacity to inform and reduce the uncertainty for power systems planners and operators

  2. Evaluation of NO{sub x} produced by storms

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laroche, P.; Mary, C.; Defer, E. [Office National d`Etudes et de Recherches Aerospatiales (ONERA), 92 - Chatillon (France)

    1997-12-31

    The evaluations of NO{sub x} production by lightning within storms are commonly based on modeling, laboratory and field experiments. To apply laboratory experiment and physical modeling to observed storms or at global scale, a schematic representation of a lightning flash is used. The actually observed 3D structure of a lightning flash is described, and the NO{sub x} production process is evaluated. Case studies are presented of actual storm observation, and the evaluation of NO{sub x} produced is compared to what could be derived from the literature. (author) 12 refs.

  3. Migrating Storms and Optimal Control of Urban Sewer Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Upaka Rathnayake

    2015-11-01

    Full Text Available Uniform storms are generally applied in most of the research on sewer systems. This is for modeling simplicity. However, in the real world, these conditions may not be applicable. It is very important to consider the migration behavior of storms not only in the design of combined sewers, but also in controlling them. Therefore, this research was carried out to improve Rathnayake and Tanyimboh’s optimal control algorithm for migrating storms. Promising results were found from the model improvement. Feasible solutions were obtained from the multi-objective optimization and, in addition, the role of on-line storage tanks was well placed.

  4. Weathering the storm: parental effort and experimental manipulation of stress hormones predict brood survival

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ouyang, JQ; Lendvai, AZ; Dakin, R.; Domalik, AD; Fasanello, VJ; Vassallo, BG; Haussmann, MF; Moore, IT; Bonier, F.

    2015-01-01

    BACKGROUND:Unpredictable and inclement weather is increasing in strength and frequency, challenging organisms to respond adaptively. One way in which animals respond to environmental challenges is through the secretion of glucocorticoid stress hormones. These hormones mobilize energy stores and

  5. Frequency of Extreme Storms Based on Beach Erosion at Northern Assateague Island, Maryland

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-01-01

    should be aware that notwithstanding any other provision of law, no person shall be subject to a penalty for failing to comply with a collection of...found to be significantly correlated with the integrated hydrograph and to a lesser extent with integrated wave height and storm duration. 15. SUBJECT ...xwww. isos.noaa.gov/om/ tpb /beach.htm (accessed Nov. 2008). Coles, S. 2001. An Introduction to Statistical Mod- eling of Extreme Values. Springer

  6. More frequent intense and long-lived storms dominate the springtime trend in central US rainfall

    OpenAIRE

    Feng, Zhe; Leung, L. Ruby; Hagos, Samson; Houze, Robert A.; Burleyson, Casey D.; Balaguru, Karthik

    2016-01-01

    The changes in extreme rainfall associated with a warming climate have drawn significant attention in recent years. Mounting evidence shows that sub-daily convective rainfall extremes are increasing faster than the rate of change in the atmospheric precipitable water capacity with a warming climate. However, the response of extreme precipitation depends on the type of storm supported by the meteorological environment. Here using long-term satellite, surface radar and rain-gauge network data a...

  7. Effect of a fast-moving tropical storm Washi on phytoplankton in the northwestern South China Sea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Hui; Pan, Jiayi; Han, Guoqi; Devlin, Adam T.; Zhang, Shuwen; Hou, Yijun

    2017-04-01

    Tropical cyclones may augment nutrients in the ocean surface layer through mixing, entrainment, and upwelling, triggering phytoplankton blooms in oligotrophic waters such as the South China Sea (SCS). Previous studies focused mainly on responses of marine environments to strong or slow-moving typhoons in the SCS. In this study, we analyze variations of chlorophyll a (Chl a) and oceanic conditions in the continental shelf region east of Hainan Island during the fast-moving tropical storm Washi and investigate its influences on phytoplankton bloom and related dynamic mechanisms. Results indicate that there was significant variation of Chl a concentration in the continental shelf region, with low values (about 0.1 mg m-3) before the storm and a 30% increase after the storm. This increase was spatially variable, much larger nearshore than offshore. Power spectral analysis of Acoustic Doppler Current Profiler (ADCP) data at a shelf site near the study region reveals strong near-inertial oscillations (NIOs) in the upper layer, with a period of about 36 h, close to the local inertial period. The NIOs intensified mixing and modified the stratification of the upper layer, inducing uplift of nutrients and Chl a into the mixed layer from below, and leading to surface Chl a increase. The relatively shallow nutricline and thermocline in the continental shelf region before the storm were favorable for upwelling of nutrients and generation of NIOs. Advection of nutrients from enhanced runoff during and after the storm may be responsible for the larger increase of the Chl a nearshore.

  8. Statistical study of the storm time radiation belt evolution during Van Allen Probes era: CME- versus CIR-driven storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shen, Xiao-Chen; Hudson, Mary K.; Jaynes, Allison N.; Shi, Quanqi; Tian, Anmin; Claudepierre, Seth G.; Qin, Mu-Rong; Zong, Qiu-Gang; Sun, Wei-Jie

    2017-08-01

    Coronal mass ejection (CME)-driven or corotating interaction region (CIR)-driven storms can change the electron distributions in the radiation belt dramatically, which can in turn affect the spacecraft in this region or induce geomagnetic effects. The Van Allen Probes twin spacecraft, launched on 30 August 2012, orbit near the equatorial plane and across a wide range of L∗ with apogee at 5.8 RE and perigee at 620 km. Electron data from Van Allen Probes MagEIS and REPT instruments have been binned every 6 h at L∗=3 (defined as 2.5 < L∗<3.5), 4 (3.5 < L∗<4.5), 5 (4.5 < L∗<5.5). The superposed epoch analysis shows that (1) CME storms induce more electron flux enhancement at L∗=3 for energy channels below 1 MeV than CIR storms; (2) CME storms induce more electron flux enhancement at L∗=4 and 5 in the energy channels above 1 MeV than CIR storms; (3) CIR storms induce more electron flux enhancement at L∗=4 and 5 in the energy channels below 1 MeV than CME storms; (4) intense CME induce more than 50 times flux enhancement for the energy channel around 400 keV at L∗=3; (5) intense CIR induce more than 50 times flux enhancement for the energy channel around 200 keV at L∗=4. These results are consistent with a general picture of enhanced convection over a longer period for CIR storms which increased flux closer to geosynchronous orbit consistent with earlier studies, while CME storms likely produce deeper penetration of enhanced flux and local heating which is greater at higher energies at lower L∗.

  9. Warming in the Nordic Seas, North Atlantic storms and thinning Arctic sea ice

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alexeev, Vladimir A.; Walsh, John E.; Ivanov, Vladimir V.; Semenov, Vladimir A.; Smirnov, Alexander V.

    2017-08-01

    Arctic sea ice over the last few decades has experienced a significant decline in coverage both in summer and winter. The currently warming Atlantic Water layer has a pronounced impact on sea ice in the Nordic Seas (including the Barents Sea). More open water combined with the prevailing atmospheric pattern of airflow from the southeast, and persistent North Atlantic storms such as the recent extremely strong Storm Frank in December 2015, lead to increased energy transport to the high Arctic. Each of these storms brings sizeable anomalies of heat to the high Arctic, resulting in significant warming and slowing down of sea ice growth or even melting. Our analysis indicates that the recently observed sea ice decline in the Nordic Seas during the cold season around Svalbard, Franz Joseph Land and Novaya Zemlya, and the associated heat release from open water into the atmosphere, contributed significantly to the increase in the downward longwave radiation throughout the entire Arctic. Added to other changes in the surface energy budget, this increase since the 1960s to the present is estimated to be at least 10 W m-2, which can result in thinner (up to at least 15-20 cm) Arctic ice at the end of the winter. This change in the surface budget is an important contributing factor accelerating the thinning of Arctic sea ice.

  10. Evaluating the Impacts of Extreme Events on Ecological Processes Through the Lens of an Ice Storm Manipulation Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Campbell, J. L.; Rustad, L.; Driscoll, C. T.; Fahey, T.; Garlick, S.; Groffman, P.; Schaberg, P. G.

    2016-12-01

    It is increasingly evident that human-induced climate change is altering the prevalence and severity of extreme weather events. Ice storms are an example of a rare and typically localized extreme weather event that is difficult to predict and has impacts that are poorly understood. We used long-term data and a field manipulation experiment to evaluate how ice storms alter the structure, function, and composition of forest ecosystems. Plots established after a major ice storm in the Northeast in 1998 were re-sampled to evaluate longer-term (17 yr) responses of tree health, productivity, and species composition. Results indicate, that despite changes in herbaceous vegetation in the years immediately after the ice storm, the forest canopy recovered, albeit with some changes in composition, most notably a release of American Beech. An ice storm field manipulation experiment was used to evaluate mechanistic understanding of short term ecological responses. Water from a stream was sprayed above the forest canopy when air temperatures were below freezing, which was effective in simulating a natural ice storm. The experimental design consisted of three levels of ice thickness treatment with two replicates per treatment. The plots with the two more severe icing treatments experienced significant damage to the forest canopy, creating gaps. These plots also had large inputs of fine and coarse woody debris to the forest floor. The exposure to light and presence of brush piles in the more heavily damaged plots resulted in warming with increased spatial variability of soil temperature. Preliminary results from the early growing season have shown no significant changes in soil respiration or soil solution losses of nutrients despite significant forest canopy damage. Further monitoring will determine whether these trends continue in the future.

  11. Identification of storm surge vulnerable areas in the Philippines through the simulation of Typhoon Haiyan-induced storm surge levels over historical storm tracks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. P. Lapidez

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available Super Typhoon Haiyan entered the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR on 7 November 2013, causing tremendous damage to infrastructure and loss of lives mainly due to the storm surge and strong winds. Storm surges up to a height of 7 m were reported in the hardest hit areas. The threat imposed by this kind of natural calamity compelled researchers of the Nationwide Operational Assessment of Hazards (Project NOAH which is the flagship disaster mitigation program of the Department of Science and Technology (DOST of the Philippine government to undertake a study to determine the vulnerability of all Philippine coastal communities to storm surges of the same magnitude as those generated by Haiyan. This study calculates the maximum probable storm surge height for every coastal locality by running simulations of Haiyan-type conditions but with tracks of tropical cyclones that entered PAR from 1948–2013. One product of this study is a list of the 30 most vulnerable coastal areas that can be used as a basis for choosing priority sites for further studies to implement appropriate site-specific solutions for flood risk management. Another product is the storm tide inundation maps that the local government units can use to develop a risk-sensitive land use plan for identifying appropriate areas to build residential buildings, evacuation sites, and other critical facilities and lifelines. The maps can also be used to develop a disaster response plan and evacuation scheme.

  12. Domesticating Ugandan local earthworms: Survival of African ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    3.5; E, 90±2.8 and E. eugeniae There was significant effect (P<0.05) of feeding rate on the survival of both species and the Fisher's LSD multiple comparison test also showed significant different (P<0.05) in the survival among the two species.

  13. Deep Space Storm Shelter Simulation Study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dugan, Kathryn; Phojanamongkolkij, Nipa; Cerro, Jeffrey; Simon, Matthew

    2015-01-01

    Missions outside of Earth's magnetic field are impeded by the presence of radiation from galactic cosmic rays and solar particle events. To overcome this issue, NASA's Advanced Exploration Systems Radiation Works Storm Shelter (RadWorks) has been studying different radiation protective habitats to shield against the onset of solar particle event radiation. These habitats have the capability of protecting occupants by utilizing available materials such as food, water, brine, human waste, trash, and non-consumables to build short-term shelters. Protection comes from building a barrier with the materials that dampens the impact of the radiation on astronauts. The goal of this study is to develop a discrete event simulation, modeling a solar particle event and the building of a protective shelter. The main hallway location within a larger habitat similar to the International Space Station (ISS) is analyzed. The outputs from this model are: 1) the total area covered on the shelter by the different materials, 2) the amount of radiation the crew members receive, and 3) the amount of time for setting up the habitat during specific points in a mission given an event occurs.

  14. NASA's Radiation Belt Storm Probes (RBSP) Mission

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fox, Nicola; Mauk, Barry; Ukhorskiy, Aleksandr; Takahashi, Kazue; Sibeck, David; Grebowsky, Joseph; Kessel, Ramona

    Understanding of radiation belt physics has matured to the extent that we have identified a set of processes which interplay to cause the creation and variation of radiation populations. These universal processes operate coherently across the planetary radiation belts of the solar system, and have far reaching impacts even beyond. Improvements in our understanding of these processes will substantially enhance our ability to predict radiation dynamics and mitigate the impacts on space assets. An important link in developing fully predictive understanding of such processes is the Radiation Belt Storm Probes mission to be launched into Earth's radiation belts in 2012 as a part of NASA's Living with a Star program. RBSP comprises two spacecraft making in situ measurements for at least 2 years in nearly the same highly elliptical, low inclination orbits (1.1 x 5.8 RE, 10 degrees). The orbits are slightly different so that 1 spacecraft laps the other spacecraft about every 2.5 months, allowing separation of spatial from temporal affects over spatial scales ranging from 0.1 to 5 RE. The unusually comprehensive suite of instruments, identical on the two spacecraft, measures the particle spectra (electrons, ions, ion compositions), fields (E and B), and wave distributions (dE and dB) that are needed to resolve the most critical science questions. Here we describe the RBSP mission characteristics, review the most pressing science issues that need to be resolved to develop predictive understanding, and describe how RBSP will be used to resolve those issues.

  15. Enhancement of oceanic nitrous oxide emissions by storms

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Bange, H.W.; Naik, H.; Naqvi, S.W.A.

    .Assumingasimilarefflux ofN 2 Ocausedbyeachcycloneorhurricane, weestimatethatatotalofabout80Gg N 2 OisreleasedfromtheArabianSeaand theETNPannuallyasaresultoftropical storms.Thisamountstoabout1.3%of theglobalopenoceanN 2 Oemissionsof 6000Ggyr–1(IPCC,2007).Thisisavery...

  16. Storm water best management practices for local roadways.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-01

    Local communities and the Ohio Department of Transportation (ODOT) are required by the Ohio : Environmental Protection Agencys (Ohio EPA) statewide Construction General Permit for Storm : Water Discharges OHC000004 (CGP) to select, design, constru...

  17. Surface-Borne Time-of-Reception Measurements (STORM) Project

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Aeronautics and Space Administration — Invocon proposes the Surface-borne Time-Of-Reception Measurements (STORM) system as a method to locate the position of lightning strikes on aerospace vehicles....

  18. Storm Water General Permit 3 for Rock and Asphalt

    Data.gov (United States)

    Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — General permit #3 for storm water discharges associated with industrial activity for Asphalt Plants, Concrete Batch Plants, Rock Crushing Plants and Construction...

  19. Two years after the storms; 2 ans apres les tempetes

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-12-01

    This document takes stock on the power distribution repair, two years after the storms of december 1999 in France. It also presents the new organization (FIRE) developed to face such natural or accidental disasters. (A.L.B.)

  20. Cerebrovascular Accident due to Thyroid Storm: Should We Anticoagulate?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alex Gonzalez-Bossolo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Thyroid storm is a life-threatening condition that occurs secondary to an uncontrolled hyperthyroid state. Atrial fibrillation is a cardiovascular complication occurring in up to 15% of patients experiencing thyroid storm, and if left untreated this condition could have up to a 25% mortality rate. Thyroid storm with stroke is a rare presentation. This case report details a left middle cerebral artery (MCA stroke with global aphasia and thyroid storm in a 53-year-old Hispanic male patient. Although uncommon, this combination has been reported in multiple case series. Although it is well documented that dysfunctional thyroid levels promote a hypercoagulable state, available guidelines from multiple entities are unclear on whether anticoagulation therapy is appropriate in this situation.

  1. Interplanetary field and plasma during initial phase of geomagnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Patel, V. L.; Wiskerchen, M. J.

    1975-01-01

    A study has been conducted of a large number of geomagnetic storms occurring during the period from 1966 to 1970. Questions of data selection are discussed and the large-scale interplanetary magnetic field during the initial phase is examined. Small-scale interplanetary fields during the initial phase are also considered, taking into account important features of small-scale variations in the interplanetary field and plasma for three storms. Details concerning 23 geomagnetic storms and the interplanetary magnetic field are presented in a table. A study of the initial phase of these storms indicates that in most of these events, the solar-ecliptic Z component of the interplanetary magnetic field turns southward when the main phase decrease begins.

  2. Storm Water Sampling Data 11-16-17.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Holland, Robert C. [Sandia National Lab. (SNL-NM), Albuquerque, NM (United States)

    2017-12-01

    In the California Industrial General Permit (IGP) 2014-0057-DWQ for storm water monitoring, effective July 1, 2015, there are 21 contaminants that have been assigned NAL (Numeric Action Level) values, both annual and instantaneous.

  3. DMSP observations of high latitude Poynting flux during magnetic storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Cheryl Y.; Huang, Yanshi; Su, Yi-Jiun; Hairston, Marc R.; Sotirelis, Thomas

    2017-11-01

    Previous studies have demonstrated that energy can enter the high-latitude regions of the Ionosphere-Thermosphere (IT) system on open field lines. To assess the extent of high-latitude energy input, we have carried out a study of Poynting flux measured by the Defense Meteorological Satellite Program (DMSP) satellites during magnetic storms. We report sporadic intense Poynting fluxes measured by four DMSP satellites at polar latitudes during two moderate magnetic storms which occurred in August and September 2011. Comparisons with a widely used empirical model for energy input to the IT system show that the model does not adequately capture electromagnetic (EM) energy at very high latitudes during storms. We have extended this study to include more than 30 storm events and find that intense EM energy is frequently detected poleward of 75° magnetic latitude.

  4. Storm surge model based on variational data assimilation method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-li Huang

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available By combining computation and observation information, the variational data assimilation method has the ability to eliminate errors caused by the uncertainty of parameters in practical forecasting. It was applied to a storm surge model based on unstructured grids with high spatial resolution meant for improving the forecasting accuracy of the storm surge. By controlling the wind stress drag coefficient, the variation-based model was developed and validated through data assimilation tests in an actual storm surge induced by a typhoon. In the data assimilation tests, the model accurately identified the wind stress drag coefficient and obtained results close to the true state. Then, the actual storm surge induced by Typhoon 0515 was forecast by the developed model, and the results demonstrate its efficiency in practical application.

  5. Observations by the CUTLASS radar, HF Doppler, oblique ionospheric sounding, and TEC from GPS during a magnetic storm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. V. Blagoveshchensky

    2005-07-01

    Full Text Available Multi-diagnostic observations, covering a significant area of northwest Europe, were made during the magnetic storm interval (28–29 April 2001 that occurred during the High Rate SolarMax IGS/GPS-campaign. HF radio observations were made with vertical sounders (St. Petersburg and Sodankyla, oblique incidence sounders (OIS, on paths from Murmansk to St. Petersburg, 1050 km, and Inskip to Leicester, 170 km, Doppler sounders, on paths from Cyprus to St. Petersburg, 2800 km, and Murmansk to St. Petersburg, and a coherent scatter radar (CUTLASS, Hankasalmi, Finland. These, together with total electron content (TEC measurements made at GPS stations from the Euref network in northwest Europe, are presented in this paper. A broad comparison of radio propagation data with ionospheric data at high and mid latitudes, under quiet and disturbed conditions, was undertaken. This analysis, together with a geophysical interpretation, allow us to better understand the nature of the ionospheric processes which occur during geomagnetic storms. The peculiarity of the storm was that it comprised of three individual substorms, the first of which appears to have been triggered by a compression of the magnetosphere. Besides the storm effects, we have also studied substorm effects in the observations separately, providing an improved understanding of the storm/substorm relationship. The main results of the investigations are the following. A narrow trough is formed some 10h after the storm onset in the TEC which is most likely a result of enhanced ionospheric convection. An enhancement in TEC some 2–3 h after the storm onset is most likely a result of heating and upwelling of the auroral ionosphere caused by enhanced currents. The so-called main effect on ionospheric propagation was observed at mid-latitudes during the first two substorms, but only during the first substorm at high latitudes. Ionospheric irregularities observed by CUTLASS were clearly related to the

  6. Using Wind Setdown and Storm Surge on Lake Erie to Calibrate the Air-Sea Drag Coefficient

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drews, Carl

    2013-01-01

    The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water. In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST) modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS). Simulated waves are generated on the lake with Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN). Wind setdown provides the opportunity to eliminate wave setup as a contributing factor, since waves are minimal at the upwind shore. The study finds that model results significantly underestimate wind setdown and storm surge when a typical open-ocean formulation without waves is used for the drag coefficient. The contribution of waves to wind setdown and storm surge is 34.7%. Scattered lake ice also increases the effective drag coefficient by a factor of 1.1. PMID:23977309

  7. Using wind setdown and storm surge on Lake Erie to calibrate the air-sea drag coefficient.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Carl Drews

    Full Text Available The air-sea drag coefficient controls the transfer of momentum from wind to water. In modeling storm surge, this coefficient is a crucial parameter for estimating the surge height. This study uses two strong wind events on Lake Erie to calibrate the drag coefficient using the Coupled Ocean Atmosphere Wave Sediment Transport (COAWST modeling system and the the Regional Ocean Modeling System (ROMS. Simulated waves are generated on the lake with Simulating WAves Nearshore (SWAN. Wind setdown provides the opportunity to eliminate wave setup as a contributing factor, since waves are minimal at the upwind shore. The study finds that model results significantly underestimate wind setdown and storm surge when a typical open-ocean formulation without waves is used for the drag coefficient. The contribution of waves to wind setdown and storm surge is 34.7%. Scattered lake ice also increases the effective drag coefficient by a factor of 1.1.

  8. The Impact of an Extreme Storm Event on the Barrier Beach of the Lefkada Lagoon, NE Ionian Sea (Greece)

    OpenAIRE

    GHIONIS, G.; POULOS, S. E.; VERYKIOU, E.; KARDITSA, A.; ALEXANDRAKIS, G.; ANDRIS, P.

    2015-01-01

    The present investigation examines the characteristics of a high energy storm event, that took place on November 9-11, 2007 in the NE Ionian Sea (eastern Mediterranean), and its impact upon the barrier beach that separates the Lefkada lagoon from the open Ionian Sea. The storm event was caused by NW winds with speeds exceeding 20 m/s (40 knots), which have an annual frequency of occurrence less than 0.015%. This high energy event produced waves with >5 m significant offshore height and 9.5 s ...

  9. PCR and culture identification of pathogenic Leptospira spp. from coastal soil in Leyte, Philippines, after a storm surge during Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saito, Mitsumasa; Miyahara, Satoshi; Villanueva, Sharon Y A M; Aramaki, Natsumi; Ikejiri, Mami; Kobayashi, Yoshie; Guevarra, Jonathan P; Masuzawa, Toshiyuki; Gloriani, Nina G; Yanagihara, Yasutake; Yoshida, Shin-ichi

    2014-11-01

    Leptospirosis is a zoonosis caused by pathogenic Leptospira spp. Most of the outbreaks of leptospirosis occur after floods caused by heavy rain in countries where Leptospira spp. are endemic. It has been believed that the overflow of seawater rarely causes outbreaks of leptospirosis because the leptospires are killed by salt water. On 8 November 2013, a storm surge caused by Super Typhoon Haiyan (Yolanda) inundated the entire coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo in Leyte, Philippines. The present study was carried out in order to determine whether the environmental leptospires in soil were able to survive after the storm surge in the affected areas. We collected 23 wet soil samples along the coastal areas of Tacloban and Palo 2 months after the storm surge. The samples were suspended in HEPES buffer, and the supernatants were cultured in liquid or semisolid Korthof's medium supplemented with five antimicrobial agents to inhibit the growth of contaminants. Leptospires were isolated from primary cultures of 22 out of 23 samples. The DNA of pathogenic Leptospira species was detected in 11 samples (47.8%) by analysis of flaB by nested PCR. Eventually, two pathogenic Leptospira strains were isolated and showed the highest 16S rRNA gene sequence similarity to Leptospira kmetyi. When these isolates were experimentally mixed with soil, they were found to survive in seawater for 4 days. These results show the possibility that leptospires living in soil survived after the storm surge. Our findings may serve as a warning that when seawater inundates the land during a storm surge or a tsunami, an outbreak of leptospirosis could occur in the disaster-stricken area. Copyright © 2014, American Society for Microbiology. All Rights Reserved.

  10. Dust Storm Forecasts for Mars Year 33: An Update

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shirley, J. H.; Mischna, M.

    2016-12-01

    Local and regional scale dust storms occur on Mars throughout the Mars year. During the southern spring and summer seasons of some years, multiple regional scale dust storms grow and coalesce to form planet-encircling storms. These events profoundly affect surface and atmospheric temperatures and the large-scale atmospheric circulation of Mars; they may in addition be hazardous to the health of landed assets such as the Curiosity (MSL) and Opportunity (MER) Rovers. The 2016 AGU Fall Meeting falls near the middle of the "dust storm season" of Mars year 33 (12-12-16 = Ls 278.5°). While global-scale dust storms (GDS) occur on average about once in every three Mars years, the past four Mars years have been free of such storms. An advance forecast for the occurrence of a GDS during the current dust storm season (MY 33) appeared in January 2015 [Icarus 215, 128-144, 2015]. This forecast was developed from a consideration of the timing of known historic GDS with respect to a solar system dynamical parameter (the orbital angular momentum of Mars with respect to the solar system barycenter). Forecasts from subsequent work employing both statistical and numerical modeling methods are largely in agreement with the original forecast, but with the caveat that even more favorable conditions for GDS occurrence are apparently on tap for Mars year 34. In this presentation we will review the methods employed and update the results obtained in prior studies, and recap the progression of events occurring in the current dust storm season prior to the Fall Meeting.

  11. Shallow Water Simulations of the Three Last Saturn's Giant Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Melendo, Enrique; Sanchez-Lavega, Agustin

    2015-11-01

    Shallow Water (SW) simulations are used to present a unified study of the polar (1960), equatorial (1990), and mid-latitude (2010) major storms in Saturn nicknamed as Great White Spots (GWS). The 2010 GWS appeared at +40, moved at -30 m s-1 where the Coriolis force is predominant producing an open anticyclone with a high speed peripheral circulation and a cloud front around the convective source; a long-lived anticyclone; and strong zonal advection on the south part of the storm forming a turbulent region. The 1990 GWS onset took place near the equator, between +12 and +5, on the broad prograde equatorial jet (450 m s-1) where equatorial dynamics dominated producing a storm nucleus, with rapid expansion to the west of a Kelvin-Helmholtz instability on the north side of the perturbation due to advection, and trapped equatorial waves which also expanded the storm to the east around the equator. The 1960 GWS appeared at high latitudes (+56) where Coriolis force is predominant in a region where zonal wind velocity is 0 m s-1. SW simulations predict a strong injection of relative vorticity which may produce large anticyclones on the anticyclonic side of the zonal profile, and a quick turbulent expansion on the background cyclonic regions at mid and high latitudes. In general, simulations indicate that negative relative vorticity injected by the storms also defines the natural interaction with the zonal winds at latitudes where the Coriolis force is dominant dictating its large scale dynamical behavior. Numerical experiments on the 1990 storm indicate that the onset of the storm can only be reproduced if the Voyager era background zonal flow is used, which suggests that it dominated the circulation dynamics at the storm’s outbreak region at that time. They also reproduce its most important morphological features, and show the production of planetary waves and turbulence. We discuss possible mechanism for the observed equatorial jet alterations during the storm

  12. Lake St. Clair: Storm Wave and Water Level Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-06-01

    levels at St. Clair Shores and Windmill Point. The ADCIRC model was tightly coupled with four near-shore Full-Plane STWAVE model grids using CSTORM...levels at St. Clair Shores. ............... 71  Figure 4-6. Comparison of Storm 002 observed and modeled water levels at Windmill Point...observed and modeled water levels at Windmill Point. ................. 74  Figure 4-9. Comparison of Storm 004 observed and modeled water levels at St

  13. Cloud-to-ground lightning in a tornadic storm on 8 May 1986

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macgorman, Donald R.; Nielsen, Kurt E.

    1991-01-01

    The National Severe Storms Laboratory (NSSL) gathered Doppler radar and lightning ground strike data on a supercell storm that produced three tornadoes, including an F3 tornado in Edmond, Oklahoma, approximately 40 km north of NSSL. The Edmond storm formed 30 km ahead of a storm complex and developed its first and most damaging tornado just as the storm complex started to overtake it from the west. Lightning strike locations tended to concentrate just north of the mesocyclone, close to and inside a 50 dBZ reflectivity core. Positive ground flashes began just prior to the storm becoming tornadic, and positive flash rates peaked during the tornadic stage of the storm.

  14. Changes in Extratropical Storm Track Cloudiness 1983-2008: Observational Support for a Poleward Shift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bender, Frida A-M.; Rananathan, V.; Tselioudis, G.

    2012-01-01

    by a regional reduction in total cloud cover. This decrease in cloudiness can primarily be ascribed to low level clouds, whereas the upper level cloud fraction actually increases, according to ISCCP. Independent satellite observations of radiative fluxes at the top of the atmosphere are consistent with the changes in total cloud cover. The shift in cloudiness is also supported by a shift in central position of the mid-troposphere meridional temperature gradient. We do not find support for aerosols playing a significant role in the satellite observed changes in cloudiness. The observed changes in storm track cloudiness can be related to local cloud-induced changes in radiative forcing, using ERBE and CERES radiative fluxes. The shortwave and the longwave components are found to act together, leading to a positive (warming) net radiative effect in response to the cloud changes in the storm track regions, indicative of positive cloud feedback. Among the CMIP3 models that simulate poleward shifts in all four storm track areas, all but one show decreasing cloud amount on a global mean scale in response to increased CO2 forcing, further consistent with positive cloud feedback. Models with low equilibrium climate sensitivity to a lesser extent than higher-sensitivity models simulate a poleward shift of the storm tracks.

  15. Modification of plasma rotation with resonant magnetic perturbations in the STOR-M tokamak

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elgriw, S.; Liu, Y.; Hirose, A.; Xiao, C.

    2016-04-01

    The toroidal plasma flow velocity of impurity ions has been significantly modified in the Saskatchewan Torus-Modified (STOR-M) tokamak by means of resonant magnetic perturbations (RMP). It has been found that the toroidal flow velocities of OV and CVI impurity ions change towards the co-current direction after the application of a current through a set of (l  =  2, n  =  1) RMP field coils. It has been observed that the reduction of the toroidal flow velocity is closely correlated to the reduction of the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) fluctuation frequency measured by Mirnov coils. Modulation of the flow velocity has been achieved by switching the RMP current pulses. Non-resonant magnetic perturbations have also induced a much smaller change in the toroidal plasma flow. A theoretical model has been adopted to assess the contributions of different drift mechanisms to magnetic islands rotation in STOR-M.

  16. Lightning initiation in the anvils of two supercell storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhlman, K. M.; MacGorman, D. R.; Biggerstaff, M. I.; Krehbiel, P. R.

    2009-04-01

    Previous studies of lightning in anvil clouds have reported that flashes began in or near the storm core and propagated downwind into the anvil. It had been thought that flashes could not be initiated far downwind in the anvil, because anvil charge was thought to be produced mainly in the storm's deep updraft and to decrease with distance into the anvil. Here we report observations of the in-cloud development of lightning flashes in the anvils of two supercell storms, including the first observations of flashes that began in the anvil 30-100 km from the cores of the storms and propagated upwind back toward the cores. Interaction between charge regions in the two converging anvils of adjoining storms appeared to cause some of the distant flash initiations, but a local charging mechanism in the anvil likely also contributed to the flash initiations. All flashes that struck ground beneath the distant anvil transferred negative charge to ground instead of the positive charge usually transferred to ground there, an apparent consequence of the parent storm having an inverted-polarity electrical structure.

  17. Lightning Mapping and the Nowcasting of Severe Storms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodman, S.; Darden, C.; Burks, J.

    2005-01-01

    This paper describes a successful research and operational collaboration between NASA scientists and NWS forecasters to improve severe stor m warnings using real-time data from a regional VHF total lightning mapping array (LMA). Key objectives of our research using LMA data ar e: a) Identification of intensifying and weakening storms using the time rate-of-change of total flash rate; b) Improved severe storm poten tial situational awareness; c) Evaluation of the potential of total f lash rate trend to improve severe storm probability of detection (POD ) and lead time; and d) Validation of mesoscale model forecasts of th understorm initiation. The LMA data are distributed for ingest and di splay in the WFO AWIPS decision support system, and archived at each WFO for case studies, event playbacks, and assessments using the NWS Warning Event Simulator. The Huntsville WFO has upgraded severe thund erstorm warnings to verified tornado warnings and avoided a false ala rm on a severe storm through the added information on storm growth, intensification, and decay that can be deduced from the magnitude and temporal trend of total flash rates. We present detailed case studies of the observed relationships between lightning activity and tornadi c storm development as determined by radar reflectivity and velocity fields, and thunderstorms forecast by the Weather Research and Foreca st (WRF) model. From these collaborative studies, forecasters can eva luate the added value of total lightning data within the forecast and warning decision-making process (http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/sport) .

  18. Red Storm usage model :Version 1.12.

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jefferson, Karen L.; Sturtevant, Judith E.

    2005-12-01

    Red Storm is an Advanced Simulation and Computing (ASC) funded massively parallel supercomputer located at Sandia National Laboratories (SNL). The Red Storm Usage Model (RSUM) documents the capabilities and the environment provided for the FY05 Tri-Lab Level II Limited Availability Red Storm User Environment Milestone and the FY05 SNL Level II Limited Availability Red Storm Platform Milestone. This document describes specific capabilities, tools, and procedures to support both local and remote users. The model is focused on the needs of the ASC user working in the secure computing environments at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory (LLNL), and SNL. Additionally, the Red Storm Usage Model maps the provided capabilities to the Tri-Lab ASC Computing Environment (ACE) requirements. The ACE requirements reflect the high performance computing requirements for the ASC community and have been updated in FY05 to reflect the community's needs. For each section of the RSUM, Appendix I maps the ACE requirements to the Limited Availability User Environment capabilities and includes a description of ACE requirements met and those requirements that are not met in that particular section. The Red Storm Usage Model, along with the ACE mappings, has been issued and vetted throughout the Tri-Lab community.

  19. Coastal emergency managers' preferences for storm surge forecast communication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Morrow, Betty Hearn; Lazo, Jeffrey K

    2014-01-01

    Storm surge, the most deadly hazard associated with tropical and extratropical cyclones, is the basis for most evacuation decisions by authorities. One factor believed to be associated with evacuation noncompliance is a lack of understanding of storm surge. To address this problem, federal agencies responsible for cyclone forecasts are seeking more effective ways of communicating storm surge threat. To inform this process, they are engaging various partners in the forecast and warning process.This project focuses on emergency managers. Fifty-three emergency managers (EMs) from the Gulf and lower Atlantic coasts were surveyed to elicit their experience with, sources of, and preferences for storm surge information. The emergency managers-who are well seasoned in hurricane response and generally rate the surge risk in their coastal areas above average or extremely high-listed storm surge as their major concern with respect to hurricanes. They reported a general lack of public awareness about surge. Overall they support new ways to convey the potential danger to the public, including the issuance of separate storm surge watches and warnings, and the expression of surge heights using feet above ground level. These EMs would like more maps, graphics, and visual materials for use in communicating with the public. An important concern is the timing of surge forecasts-whether they receive them early enough to be useful in their evacuation decisions.

  20. Artificial reproduction of magnetic fields produced by a natural geomagnetic storm increases systolic blood pressure in rats

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez-Bretón, J. L.; Mendoza, B.; Miranda-Anaya, M.; Durán, P.; Flores-Chávez, P. L.

    2016-11-01

    The incidence of geomagnetic storms may be associated with changes in circulatory physiology. The way in which the natural variations of the geomagnetic field due to solar activity affects the blood pressure are poorly understood and require further study in controlled experimental designs in animal models. In the present study, we tested whether the systolic arterial pressure (AP) in adult rats is affected by simulated magnetic fields resembling the natural changes of a geomagnetic storm. We exposed adult rats to a linear magnetic profile that simulates the average changes associated to some well-known geomagnetic storm phases: the sudden commencement and principal phase. Magnetic stimulus was provided by a coil inductor and regulated by a microcontroller. The experiments were conducted in the electromagnetically isolated environment of a semi-anechoic chamber. After exposure, AP was determined with a non-invasive method through the pulse on the rat's tail. Animals were used as their own control. Our results indicate that there was no statistically significant effect in AP when the artificial profile was applied, neither in the sudden commencement nor in the principal phases. However, during the experimental period, a natural geomagnetic storm occurred, and we did observe statistically significant AP increase during the sudden commencement phase. Furthermore, when this storm phase was artificially replicated with a non-linear profile, we noticed a 7 to 9 % increase of the rats' AP in relation to a reference value. We suggested that the changes in the geomagnetic field associated with a geomagnetic storm in its first day could produce a measurable and reproducible physiological response in AP.

  1. Purple pitcher plant (Sarracenia rosea Dieback and partial community disassembly following experimental storm surge in a coastal pitcher plant bog.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Matthew J Abbott

    Full Text Available Sea-level rise and frequent intense hurricanes associated with climate change will result in recurrent flooding of inland systems such as Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs by storm surges. These surges can transport salt water and sediment to freshwater bogs, greatly affecting their biological integrity. Purple pitcher plants (Sarracenia rosea are Gulf Coast pitcher plant bog inhabitants that could be at a disadvantage under this scenario because their pitcher morphology may leave them prone to collection of saline water and sediment after a surge. We investigated the effects of storm surge water salinity and sediment type on S. rosea vitality, plant community structure, and bog soil-water conductivity. Plots (containing ≥1 ramet of S. rosea were experimentally flooded with fresh or saline water crossed with one of three sediment types (local, foreign, or no sediment. There were no treatment effects on soil-water conductivity; nevertheless, direct exposure to saline water resulted in significantly lower S. rosea cover until the following season when a prescribed fire and regional drought contributed to the decline of all the S. rosea to near zero percent cover. There were also significant differences in plant community structure between treatments over time, reflecting how numerous species increased in abundance and a few species decreased in abundance. However, in contrast to S. rosea, most of the other species in the community appeared resilient to the effects of storm surge. Thus, although the community may be somewhat affected by storm surge, those few species that are particularly sensitive to the storm surge disturbance will likely drop out of the community and be replaced by more resilient species. Depending on the longevity of these biological legacies, Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs may be incapable of fully recovering if they become exposed to storm surge more frequently due to climate change.

  2. A multi-scale hybrid neural network retrieval model for dust storm detection, a study in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Man Sing; Xiao, Fei; Nichol, Janet; Fung, Jimmy; Kim, Jhoon; Campbell, James; Chan, P. W.

    2015-05-01

    Dust storms are known to have adverse effects on human health and significant impact on weather, air quality, hydrological cycle, and ecosystem. Atmospheric dust loading is also one of the large uncertainties in global climate modeling, due to its significant impact on the radiation budget and atmospheric stability. Observations of dust storms in humid tropical south China (e.g. Hong Kong), are challenging due to high industrial pollution from the nearby Pearl River Delta region. This study develops a method for dust storm detection by combining ground station observations (PM10 concentration, AERONET data), geostationary satellite images (MTSAT), and numerical weather and climatic forecasting products (WRF/Chem). The method is based on a hybrid neural network (NN) retrieval model for two scales: (i) a NN model for near real-time detection of dust storms at broader regional scale; (ii) a NN model for detailed dust storm mapping for Hong Kong and Taiwan. A feed-forward multilayer perceptron (MLP) NN, trained using back propagation (BP) algorithm, was developed and validated by the k-fold cross validation approach. The accuracy of the near real-time detection MLP-BP network is 96.6%, and the accuracies for the detailed MLP-BP neural network for Hong Kong and Taiwan is 74.8%. This newly automated multi-scale hybrid method can be used to give advance near real-time mapping of dust storms for environmental authorities and the public. It is also beneficial for identifying spatial locations of adverse air quality conditions, and estimates of low visibility associated with dust events for port and airport authorities.

  3. Purple pitcher plant (Sarracenia rosea) Dieback and partial community disassembly following experimental storm surge in a coastal pitcher plant bog.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abbott, Matthew J; Battaglia, Loretta L

    2015-01-01

    Sea-level rise and frequent intense hurricanes associated with climate change will result in recurrent flooding of inland systems such as Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs by storm surges. These surges can transport salt water and sediment to freshwater bogs, greatly affecting their biological integrity. Purple pitcher plants (Sarracenia rosea) are Gulf Coast pitcher plant bog inhabitants that could be at a disadvantage under this scenario because their pitcher morphology may leave them prone to collection of saline water and sediment after a surge. We investigated the effects of storm surge water salinity and sediment type on S. rosea vitality, plant community structure, and bog soil-water conductivity. Plots (containing ≥1 ramet of S. rosea) were experimentally flooded with fresh or saline water crossed with one of three sediment types (local, foreign, or no sediment). There were no treatment effects on soil-water conductivity; nevertheless, direct exposure to saline water resulted in significantly lower S. rosea cover until the following season when a prescribed fire and regional drought contributed to the decline of all the S. rosea to near zero percent cover. There were also significant differences in plant community structure between treatments over time, reflecting how numerous species increased in abundance and a few species decreased in abundance. However, in contrast to S. rosea, most of the other species in the community appeared resilient to the effects of storm surge. Thus, although the community may be somewhat affected by storm surge, those few species that are particularly sensitive to the storm surge disturbance will likely drop out of the community and be replaced by more resilient species. Depending on the longevity of these biological legacies, Gulf Coastal pitcher plant bogs may be incapable of fully recovering if they become exposed to storm surge more frequently due to climate change.

  4. Hailstones: a window into the microbial and chemical inventory of a storm cloud.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tina Šantl-Temkiv

    Full Text Available Storm clouds frequently form in the summer period in temperate climate zones. Studies on these inaccessible and short-lived atmospheric habitats have been scarce. We report here on the first comprehensive biogeochemical investigation of a storm cloud using hailstones as a natural stochastic sampling tool. A detailed molecular analysis of the dissolved organic matter in individual hailstones via ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry revealed the molecular formulae of almost 3000 different compounds. Only a small fraction of these compounds were rapidly biodegradable carbohydrates and lipids, suitable for microbial consumption during the lifetime of cloud droplets. However, as the cloud environment was characterized by a low bacterial density (Me = 1973 cells/ml as well as high concentrations of both dissolved organic carbon (Me = 179 µM and total dissolved nitrogen (Me = 30 µM, already trace amounts of easily degradable organic compounds suffice to support bacterial growth. The molecular fingerprints revealed a mainly soil origin of dissolved organic matter and a minor contribution of plant-surface compounds. In contrast, both the total and the cultivable bacterial community were skewed by bacterial groups (γ-Proteobacteria, Sphingobacteriales and Methylobacterium that indicated the dominance of plant-surface bacteria. The enrichment of plant-associated bacterial groups points at a selection process of microbial genera in the course of cloud formation, which could affect the long-distance transport and spatial distribution of bacteria on Earth. Based on our results we hypothesize that plant-associated bacteria were more likely than soil bacteria (i to survive the airborne state due to adaptations to life in the phyllosphere, which in many respects matches the demands encountered in the atmosphere and (ii to grow on the suitable fraction of dissolved organic matter in clouds due to their ecological strategy. We conclude that storm

  5. Hailstones: A Window into the Microbial and Chemical Inventory of a Storm Cloud

    Science.gov (United States)

    Šantl-Temkiv, Tina; Finster, Kai; Dittmar, Thorsten; Hansen, Bjarne Munk; Nielsen, Niels Woetmann; Karlson, Ulrich Gosewinkel

    2013-01-01

    Storm clouds frequently form in the summer period in temperate climate zones. Studies on these inaccessible and short-lived atmospheric habitats have been scarce. We report here on the first comprehensive biogeochemical investigation of a storm cloud using hailstones as a natural stochastic sampling tool. A detailed molecular analysis of the dissolved organic matter in individual hailstones via ultra-high resolution mass spectrometry revealed the molecular formulae of almost 3000 different compounds. Only a small fraction of these compounds were rapidly biodegradable carbohydrates and lipids, suitable for microbial consumption during the lifetime of cloud droplets. However, as the cloud environment was characterized by a low bacterial density (Me = 1973 cells/ml) as well as high concentrations of both dissolved organic carbon (Me = 179 µM) and total dissolved nitrogen (Me = 30 µM), already trace amounts of easily degradable organic compounds suffice to support bacterial growth. The molecular fingerprints revealed a mainly soil origin of dissolved organic matter and a minor contribution of plant-surface compounds. In contrast, both the total and the cultivable bacterial community were skewed by bacterial groups (γ-Proteobacteria, Sphingobacteriales and Methylobacterium) that indicated the dominance of plant-surface bacteria. The enrichment of plant-associated bacterial groups points at a selection process of microbial genera in the course of cloud formation, which could affect the long-distance transport and spatial distribution of bacteria on Earth. Based on our results we hypothesize that plant-associated bacteria were more likely than soil bacteria (i) to survive the airborne state due to adaptations to life in the phyllosphere, which in many respects matches the demands encountered in the atmosphere and (ii) to grow on the suitable fraction of dissolved organic matter in clouds due to their ecological strategy. We conclude that storm clouds are

  6. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 storm-hazard projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barnard, Patrick; Erikson, Li; O'Neill, Andrea; Foxgrover, Amy; Herdman, Liv

    2017-01-01

    The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes detailed predictions (meter-scale) over large geographic scales (100s of kilometers) of storm-induced coastal flooding and erosion for both current and future SLR scenarios, as well as long-term shoreline change and cliff retreat.  Resulting projections for future climate scenarios (sea-level rise and storms) provide emergency responders and coastal planners with critical storm-hazards information that can be used to increase public safety, mitigate physical damages, and more effectively manage and allocate resources within complex coastal settings. Several versions of CoSMoS have been implemented for areas of the California coast, including Southern California, Central California, and San Francisco Bay, and further versions will be incorporated as additional regions and improvements are developed.

  7. Multi-spacecraft observations of ULF waves during the Halloween storm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Daglis, I. A.; Balasis, G.; Zesta, E.; Papadimitriou, C.; Georgiou, M.; Horne, R. B.; Khotyaintsev, Y. V.; Mann, I. R.; Santolik, O.; Turner, D. L.

    2012-12-01

    The "Halloween" storm (on 29 - 31 October 2003) has attracted considerable interest as it offers a great opportunity of understanding the response of the magnetosphere-ionosphere system to strong and continuous solar wind driving through the analysis of combined ground and space data. In this paper, we first present the overall ULF wave activity throughout the three-day interval as observed by Cluster, Geotail, and CHAMP in the variations of the observed magnetic field. We also look at three specific intervals during different phases of the storm when at least two of the spacecraft are in good local time conjunction. We examine separately the Pc3 and Pc4-5 ULF wave activity and its concurrence in the different regions of the magnetosphere and down to the topside ionosphere. We find that the wave content in the magnetosphere is higher due to the storm. The wave power in the topside ionosphere, which is sensitive to ionospheric currents, is directly correlated with Dst. In the magnetosphere, on the other hand, Pc5 wave power exhibits a stronger correlation to Dst, while the Pc3 power exhibits more of an overall linear increase with time from storm onset. At the topside ionosphere the Pc3 wave power - Dst correlation is more prominent than it is in the magnetosphere. Geotail is in the upstream solar wind at the initial main phase of the storm and observes significantly enhanced ULF wave power with the approach of the CME and storm-time conditions. It appears that much of the wave power dynamics observed inside the magnetosphere and ionosphere may be directly driven by wave dynamics inside the solar wind. Local time conjunctions of any satellite combination demonstrate that the dynamic development of the wave power of either Pc3 or Pc4-5 waves is well correlated between the different regions of the magnetosphere and from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere. Correlations between spacecraft in different local time sectors are more generic in terms of the occurrence of

  8. Characterizing the variability in precipitation-bearing storms over Central Greenland during the last glacial period

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winstrup, Mai; Svensson, Anders M.; Rasmussen, Sune O.; Ditlevsen, Peter; Kipfstuhl, Sepp; Steig, Eric J.

    2013-04-01

    A few ice core records are of sufficiently high resolution that they are able to record individual weather events. In this study, we are looking into one of these, namely the visual stratigraphy of the NGRIP ice core record from Central Greenland. We consider the evidence these data contains on variability in past precipitation-bearing storm tracks over Central Greenland during the rapid climatic changes of the last glacial. This information has implications for the variability of past circulation patterns in the North Atlantic region and their governing climate mechanisms. From the NGRIP ice core, Central Greenland, very detailed images of the visual stratigraphy in the core has been obtained. For the ice deposited during the last glacial period, the images show a clear banding of small-scale layers with a range of thicknesses. These layers are believed to be the result of individual precipitation events, which can be distinguished due to differences in their impurity concentrations. This assumption is justified by a qualitative comparison of contemporary Central Greenland weather data to the layering in early Holocene visual stratigraphy data. In combination with an accurate layer-counted chronology for the NGRIP ice core, the data allows us to look into the variability of past storminess over Central Greenland. This variability is quantified in terms of the changes in frequency and intensity of precipitation-bearing storms over the warm and cold phases of the last glacial period. Preliminary investigations show that whereas the average amount of precipitation per storm event is relatively constant with climate, the frequency of storms is changing significantly: A considerably larger number of precipitating storms per year are reaching the NGRIP drill site, Central Greenland, during the interstadials. On the other hand, inter-annual variability in the frequency of major storm occurrences is observed to be largest during the cold periods. We hypothesize that the

  9. Increasing cardiopulmonary emergency visits by long-range transported Asian dust storms in Taiwan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, Chang-Chuan; Chuang, Kai-Jen; Chen, Wen-Jone; Chang, Wei-Tien; Lee, Chung-Te; Peng, Chi-Ming

    2008-03-01

    This study aims to explore whether Asian dust storms can affect health after 4000 km long-range transport from their origins to downwind areas. Asian dust storms reaching Taipei, Taiwan are tracked by satellite images and confirmed by backward trajectory analysis and ground air pollution monitoring between 1995 and 2002. Our outcome variables include emergency visits for ischaemic heart diseases (ICD-9-CM 410-411, 414), cerebrovascular diseases (ICD-9-CM 430-437), and chronic obstructive pulmonary diseases (COPD) (ICD-9-CM 493, 496) from the National Taiwan University Hospital (NTUH). We use simple paired t-test and Poisson regression models to compare difference in emergency visits, air pollution levels and meteorological conditions for the pairs of Asian dust events and pre-dust periods. There were 39 high dust events with PM(10) greater than 90 microg/m(3) and another 46 low dust events with PM(10) less than 90 microg/m(3). Compared to their pre-dust periods, PM(10) concentrations are significantly increased by 77 microg/m(3) per event for the high dust events. Asian dust storms increase cardiopulmonary emergency visits during storm-affecting periods in Taipei when ambient PM(10) concentrations are above 90 microg/m(3). Compared to their pre-dust periods, emergency visits for ischaemic heart diseases, cerebrovascular diseases, and COPD during high dust events are increased by 0.7 case (35%), 0.7 case (20%), and 0.9 case (20%) per event, respectively, by paired t-tests. By comparing the model-predicted to the observed emergency visits, we find emergency visits for cardiovascular diseases (ICD-9-CM 410-411, 414, 430-437) were significantly increased by 2.9 cases (67%) per event for the 39 high Asian dust events.

  10. Developing Subdomain Allocation Algorithms Based on Spatial and Communicational Constraints to Accelerate Dust Storm Simulation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhipeng Gui

    Full Text Available Dust storm has serious disastrous impacts on environment, human health, and assets. The developments and applications of dust storm models have contributed significantly to better understand and predict the distribution, intensity and structure of dust storms. However, dust storm simulation is a data and computing intensive process. To improve the computing performance, high performance computing has been widely adopted by dividing the entire study area into multiple subdomains and allocating each subdomain on different computing nodes in a parallel fashion. Inappropriate allocation may introduce imbalanced task loads and unnecessary communications among computing nodes. Therefore, allocation is a key factor that may impact the efficiency of parallel process. An allocation algorithm is expected to consider the computing cost and communication cost for each computing node to minimize total execution time and reduce overall communication cost for the entire simulation. This research introduces three algorithms to optimize the allocation by considering the spatial and communicational constraints: 1 an Integer Linear Programming (ILP based algorithm from combinational optimization perspective; 2 a K-Means and Kernighan-Lin combined heuristic algorithm (K&K integrating geometric and coordinate-free methods by merging local and global partitioning; 3 an automatic seeded region growing based geometric and local partitioning algorithm (ASRG. The performance and effectiveness of the three algorithms are compared based on different factors. Further, we adopt the K&K algorithm as the demonstrated algorithm for the experiment of dust model simulation with the non-hydrostatic mesoscale model (NMM-dust and compared the performance with the MPI default sequential allocation. The results demonstrate that K&K method significantly improves the simulation performance with better subdomain allocation. This method can also be adopted for other relevant atmospheric

  11. Psychology and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, D P; Ruth, T E; Wagner, L M

    1993-11-06

    We examined the deaths of 28,169 adult Chinese-Americans, and 412,632 randomly selected, matched controls coded "white" on the death certificate. Chinese-Americans, but not whites, die significantly earlier than normal (1.3-4.9 yr) if they have a combination of disease and birthyear which Chinese astrology and medicine consider ill-fated. The more strongly a group is attached to Chinese traditions, the more years of life are lost. Our results hold for nearly all major causes of death studied. The reduction in survival cannot be completely explained by a change in the behaviour of the Chinese patient, doctor, or death-registrar, but seems to result at least partly from psychosomatic processes.

  12. Sub-Auroral Polarization Stream Observations During Storm and Non-Storm Conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shepherd, S. G.; Ruohoniemi, J. M.

    2016-12-01

    A consequence of pressure gradients in the inner magnetosphere and low ionospheric conductivity, sub-auroral polarization streams (SAPS) manifest in the ionosphere as a westward plasma drift (poleward directed electric field) equatorward of the electron precipitation boundary. They can extend over more than 12 hours in MLT with centering on the nightside and maximum velocity in the dusk sector, and occur under all but the quietest geomagnetic conditions. The basic physical mechanism for SAPS appears toinvolve an interplay of field-aligned current, electric field, and conductivity, however, understanding the occurrence and characteristics of SAPS in specific events and the development of a predictive capability require an elaboration of the dynamical aspects of the phenomenon under both storm and non-storm conditions. Ground- and space-based observations, as well as theoretical and modeling capabilities, have improved substantially in recent years and will help answer some of the outstanding questions. Drawing from the recent CEDAR-GEM SAPS Focus Study this talk is an overview of our current state of understanding of the SAPS phenomenon, primarily from an observational perspective, with reference to potential issues and possible studies to resolve them.

  13. Design of Storm Water Drains by Rational Method – an Approach to Storm Water Management for Environmental Protection

    OpenAIRE

    Needhidasan.S; Manoj Nallanathel

    2013-01-01

    A scientific drainage system to catch the storm water is a long term ambition of the society, especially in cities. Increasing development activities have called badly for the necessity of discharging runoff safely in to environment. It is often being happened that over densification and modification of undeveloped land is also resulting increased flow with increased pollution. Irrespective of the city, most of our city’s face will be fractured, if a heavy storm with high run off is hit, due ...

  14. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 ocean-currents projections: 100-year storm in Orange County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System...

  15. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 1-year storm in Orange County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  16. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 1-year storm in Santa Barbara County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  17. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 100-year storm in Los Angeles County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  18. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 20-year storm in Los Angeles County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  19. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 ocean-currents projections: 20-year storm in Ventura County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System...

  20. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 100-year storm in San Diego County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm Modeling...

  1. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 20-year storm in San Diego County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm Modeling...

  2. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 1-year storm in Los Angeles County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm...

  3. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 20-year storm in Santa Barbara County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  4. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 ocean-currents projections: 100-year storm in Ventura County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System...

  5. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 ocean-currents projections: 1-year storm in Orange County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System...

  6. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 100-year storm in Santa Barbara County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  7. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 20-year storm in Orange County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  8. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 ocean-currents projections: 20-year storm in Santa Barbara County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System...

  9. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 ocean-currents projections: 100-year storm in Santa Barbara County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System...

  10. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 ocean-currents projections: 20-year storm in Orange County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System...

  11. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 ocean-currents projections: 1-year storm in Ventura County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived ocean current velocities (in meters per second) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System...

  12. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 100-year storm in Ventura County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  13. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 20-year storm in Ventura County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Model-derived total water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. The Coastal Storm Modeling System (CoSMoS) makes...

  14. CoSMoS (Coastal Storm Modeling System) Southern California v3.0 Phase 2 water-level projections: 1-year storm in San Diego County

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — Projected Hazard: Model-derived water levels (in meters) for the given storm condition and sea-level rise (SLR) scenario. Model Summary: The Coastal Storm Modeling...

  15. Storms Induce Variable Changes in Phosphorus Release From a North Carolina Coastal Plain In-Stream Wetland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Novak, J. M.; Szogi, A. A.; Stone, K. C.; Watts, D. W.; Johnson, M. H.

    2007-12-01

    successive hurricanes in 1998 (Dennis, Floyd, and Irene) precipitated huge hydrologic disturbances within this wetland resulting in 1,119 kg of DP released. These three hurricanes in a short time period (2.5 mo) delivered a cumulative rainfall total of 606 mm that caused the in-stream wetland to be flushed several hundred-fold with equivalent volumes of water as inflow. Multiple flushing of the wetland by storms over 4 yrs also resulted in significant reductions in sediment pore water DP contents and in sediment total phosphorus concentrations. The large difference in DP mass loads released from this in-stream wetland was explained using regression analyses to evaluate mass loads versus Q differences between storm events. Examining 4 yrs of storm activity showed that some tropical storms can cause similar or higher DP releases than a single hurricane; still, multiple successive hurricanes in the same season delivering heavy rainfall totals significantly increased DP export.

  16. Clustering of European winter storms: A multi-model perspective

    Science.gov (United States)

    Renggli, Dominik; Buettner, Annemarie; Scherb, Anke; Straub, Daniel; Zimmerli, Peter

    2016-04-01

    The storm series over Europe in 1990 (Daria, Vivian, Wiebke, Herta) and 1999 (Anatol, Lothar, Martin) are very well known. Such clusters of severe events strongly affect the seasonally accumulated damage statistics. The (re)insurance industry has quantified clustering by using distribution assumptions deduced from the historical storm activity of the last 30 to 40 years. The use of storm series simulated by climate models has only started recently. Climate model runs can potentially represent 100s to 1000s of years, allowing a more detailed quantification of clustering than the history of the last few decades. However, it is unknown how sensitive the representation of clustering is to systematic biases. Using a multi-model ensemble allows quantifying that uncertainty. This work uses CMIP5 decadal ensemble hindcasts to study clustering of European winter storms from a multi-model perspective. An objective identification algorithm extracts winter storms (September to April) in the gridded 6-hourly wind data. Since the skill of European storm predictions is very limited on the decadal scale, the different hindcast runs are interpreted as independent realizations. As a consequence, the available hindcast ensemble represents several 1000 simulated storm seasons. The seasonal clustering of winter storms is quantified using the dispersion coefficient. The benchmark for the decadal prediction models is the 20th Century Reanalysis. The decadal prediction models are able to reproduce typical features of the clustering characteristics observed in the reanalysis data. Clustering occurs in all analyzed models over the North Atlantic and European region, in particular over Great Britain and Scandinavia as well as over Iberia (i.e. the exit regions of the North Atlantic storm track). Clustering is generally weaker in the models compared to reanalysis, although the differences between different models are substantial. In contrast to existing studies, clustering is driven by weak

  17. Final Scientific/Technical Report for Subseasonal to Seasonal Prediction of Extratropical Storm Track Activity over the U.S. using NMME data

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chang, Edmund Kar-Man [Stony Brook Univ., NY (United States)

    2017-10-30

    The goals of the project are: 1) To develop and assess subseasonal to seasonal prediction products for storm track activity derived from NMME data; 2) Assess how much of the predictable signal can be associated with ENSO and other modes of large scale low frequency atmosphere-ocean variability; and 3) Further explore the link between storm track variations and extreme weather statistics. Significant findings of this project include the followings: 1) Our assessment of NMME reforecasts of storm track variability has demonstrated that NMME models have substantial skill in predicting storm track activity in the vicinity of North America - Subseasonal skill is high only for leads of less than 1 month. However, seasonal (winter) prediction skill near North America is high even out to 4 to 5 months lead - Much of the skill for leads of 1 month or longer is related to the influence of ENSO - Nevertheless, lead 0 NMME predictions are significantly more skillful than those based on ENSO influence 2) Our results have demonstrated that storm track variations highly modulate the frequency of occurrence of weather extremes - Extreme cold, high wind, and extreme precipitation events in winter - Extreme heat events in summer - These results suggest that NMME storm track predictions can be developed to serve as a useful guidance to assist the formulation of monthly/seasonal outlooks

  18. Obinutuzumab (GA101) compared to rituximab significantly enhances cell death and antibody-dependent cytotoxicity and improves overall survival against CD20(+) rituximab-sensitive/-resistant Burkitt lymphoma (BL) and precursor B-acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (pre-B-ALL): potential targeted therapy in patients with poor risk CD20(+) BL and pre-B-ALL.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Awasthi, Aradhana; Ayello, Janet; Van de Ven, Carmella; Elmacken, Mona; Sabulski, Anthony; Barth, Matthew J; Czuczman, Myron S; Islam, Humayun; Klein, Christian; Cairo, Mitchell S

    2015-12-01

    Obinutuzumab is a novel glycoengineered Type-II CD20 monoclonal antibody. CD20 is expressed in approximately 100% of children and adolescents with Burkitt lymphoma (BL) and 40% with precursor B-cell acute lymphoblastic leukaemia (pre-B-ALL). We evaluated the anti-tumour activity of obinutuzumab versus rituximab against rituximab-resistant (Raji 4RH) and -sensitive (Raji) BL and pre-B-ALL (U698-M) cells in vitro and in human BL or Pre-B-ALL xenografted mice. We demonstrated that obinutuzumab compared to rituximab significantly enhanced cell death against Raji 35·6 ± 3·1% vs. 25·1 ± 2·0%, (P = 0·001), Raji4RH 19·7 ± 2·2% vs. 7·9 ± 1·5% (P = 0·001) and U-698-M 47·3 ± 4·9% vs. 23·2 ± 0·5% (P = 0·001), respectively. Obinutuzumab versus rituximab also induced a significant increase in antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC) with K562-IL15-41BBL expanded NK cells against Raji 73·8 ± 8·1% vs. 56·81 ± 4·6% (P = 0·001), Raji-4RH 40·0 ± 1·6% vs. 0·5 ± 1·1% (P = 0·001) and U-698-M 70·0 ± 1·6% vs. 45·5 ± 0·1% (P = 0·001), respectively. Overall survival in tumour xenografted mice receiving 30 mg/kg of obinutuzumab was significantly increased when compared to those receiving 30 mg/kg of rituximab in BL; Raji (P = 0·05), Raji4RH (P = 0·02) and U698-M (P = 0·03), respectively. These preclinical data suggest obinutuzumab is significantly superior to rituximab in inducing cell death, ADCC and against rituximab-sensitive/-resistant BL and pre-B-ALL xenografted mice. Taken together, these preclinical results provide evidence to suggest that future investigation of obinutuzumab is warranted in patients with relapsed/refractory CD20(+) BL and/or pre-B-ALL. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  19. The Response of Equatorial Ionization Anomaly in 120°E to the Geomagnetic Storm of 18 August 2003 at Different Altitudes From Multiple Satellite Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Weihua; Zhu, Zhengping; Xiong, Chao; Chang, Shanshan

    2017-12-01

    In this paper, the variations of equatorial ionization anomaly (EIA) in 120°E region during the 17-20 August 2003 storm are investigated from measurements of satellites at different altitudes from Challenging Minisatellite Payload (CHAMP), Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), scientific satellite of the Republic of China (ROCSAT-1), and Defense Meteorological Satellite Program missions. The results showed that (1) at CHAMP and GRACE altitudes, the EIA was inhibited before the storm sudden commencement (SSC) and also during the storm recovery phase, but it was enhanced significantly during the storm main phase of the storm. (2) The variations of EIA strength and interhemispheric density asymmetry of the two crests were similar at CHAMP and GRACE altitudes, while the location asymmetry of the two crests was different at CHAMP and GRACE altitudes. (3) The irregularities and long-duration scintillation were recorded before the SSC of the storm, when the EIA was inhibited. The irregularities at different altitudes and short-duration scintillation were observed during the main phase of the storm, when the EIA was enhanced significantly. (4) The EIA enhancement can be attributed to the enhanced electric field due to prompt penetration interplanetary electric fields and the storm time neutral wind, while the suppression of EIA on 17 August can be attributed to the absence of the equatorward neutral wind, which varied with the altitudes. The EIA inhibition during the recovery phase may be caused mainly by the neutral wind. Our results suggest that the neutral wind is the crucial factor causing the variations in EIA and the occurrence of scintillation.

  20. A socioeconomic assessment of climate change-enhanced coastal storm hazards in the U.S. Pacific Northwest

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baron, H. M.; Ruggiero, P.; Harris, E.

    2010-12-01

    Every winter, coastal communities in the U.S. Pacific Northwest are at risk to coastal change hazards caused by extreme storm events. These storms have the potential to erode large portions of the primary foredune that may be a community’s only barrier from the ocean. Furthermore, the frequency and magnitude of significant erosion events appears to be increasing, likely due to climate-related processes such as sea level rise and increases in storm wave heights. To reduce risks posed by winter storms, it is not only important to determine the impending physical impacts but it is also necessary to explore the vulnerability of the social-ecological system in the context of these hazards. Here we assess the exposure to both annually occurring and extreme storm events at various planning timelines using a methodology that incorporates the effect of a variable and changing climate on future total water levels. To do this, we have developed a suite of climate change scenarios involving a range of projections for the wave climate, global sea level rise, and the occurrence of El Niño events through 2100. Simple geometric models are then used to conservatively determine the extent of erosion that may occur for a given combination of these climatic factors. We integrate the physical hazards with socioeconomic data using a geographic information system (GIS) in order to quantify societal vulnerability, characterized by the exposure and sensitivity of a community, which is based on the distribution of people, property, and resources. Here we focus on a 14 km stretch of dune-backed coast in northwest Oregon, from Cascade Head to Cape Kiwanda—the location of two communities that, historically, have experienced problematic storm-induced coastal change, Pacific City and Neskowin. Although both of these communities have similar exposure to coastal change hazards at the present, Neskowin is more than twice as sensitive to erosion because almost all of its residents and community