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Sample records for survival time scale

  1. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  2. Ensemble Pulsar Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yin, Dong-shan; Gao, Yu-ping; Zhao, Shu-hong

    2017-07-01

    Millisecond pulsars can generate another type of time scale that is totally independent of the atomic time scale, because the physical mechanisms of the pulsar time scale and the atomic time scale are quite different from each other. Usually the pulsar timing observations are not evenly sampled, and the internals between two data points range from several hours to more than half a month. Further more, these data sets are sparse. All this makes it difficult to generate an ensemble pulsar time scale. Hence, a new algorithm to calculate the ensemble pulsar time scale is proposed. Firstly, a cubic spline interpolation is used to densify the data set, and make the intervals between data points uniform. Then, the Vondrak filter is employed to smooth the data set, and get rid of the high-frequency noises, and finally the weighted average method is adopted to generate the ensemble pulsar time scale. The newly released NANOGRAV (North American Nanohertz Observatory for Gravitational Waves) 9-year data set is used to generate the ensemble pulsar time scale. This data set includes the 9-year observational data of 37 millisecond pulsars observed by the 100-meter Green Bank telescope and the 305-meter Arecibo telescope. It is found that the algorithm used in this paper can reduce effectively the influence caused by the noises in pulsar timing residuals, and improve the long-term stability of the ensemble pulsar time scale. Results indicate that the long-term (> 1 yr) stability of the ensemble pulsar time scale is better than 3.4 × 10-15.

  3. Meta-analysis of survival prediction with Palliative Performance Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Downing, Michael; Lau, Francis; Lesperance, Mary; Karlson, Nicholas; Shaw, Jack; Kuziemsky, Craig; Bernard, Steve; Hanson, Laura; Olajide, Lola; Head, Barbara; Ritchie, Christine; Harrold, Joan; Casarett, David

    2007-01-01

    This paper aims to reconcile the use of Palliative Performance Scale (PPSv2) for survival prediction in palliative care through an international collaborative study by five research groups. The study involves an individual patient data meta-analysis on 1,808 patients from four original datasets to reanalyze their survival patterns by age, gender, cancer status, and initial PPS score. Our findings reveal a strong association between PPS and survival across the four datasets. The Kaplan-Meier survival curves show each PPS level as distinct, with a strong ordering effect in which higher PPS levels are associated with increased length of survival. Using a stratified Cox proportional hazard model to adjust for study differences, we found females lived significantly longer than males, with a further decrease in hazard for females not diagnosed with cancer. Further work is needed to refine the reporting of survival times/probabilities and to improve prediction accuracy with the inclusion of other variables in the models.

  4. Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-10-01

    Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results. This article was corrected on 11 Nov 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  5. Ohm's law survives to the atomic scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weber, B; Mahapatra, S; Ryu, H; Lee, S; Fuhrer, A; Reusch, T C G; Thompson, D L; Lee, W C T; Klimeck, G; Hollenberg, L C L; Simmons, M Y

    2012-01-06

    As silicon electronics approaches the atomic scale, interconnects and circuitry become comparable in size to the active device components. Maintaining low electrical resistivity at this scale is challenging because of the presence of confining surfaces and interfaces. We report on the fabrication of wires in silicon--only one atom tall and four atoms wide--with exceptionally low resistivity (~0.3 milliohm-centimeters) and the current-carrying capabilities of copper. By embedding phosphorus atoms within a silicon crystal with an average spacing of less than 1 nanometer, we achieved a diameter-independent resistivity, which demonstrates ohmic scaling to the atomic limit. Atomistic tight-binding calculations confirm the metallicity of these atomic-scale wires, which pave the way for single-atom device architectures for both classical and quantum information processing.

  6. Survival-time statistics for sample space reducing stochastic processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yadav, Avinash Chand

    2016-04-01

    Stochastic processes wherein the size of the state space is changing as a function of time offer models for the emergence of scale-invariant features observed in complex systems. I consider such a sample-space reducing (SSR) stochastic process that results in a random sequence of strictly decreasing integers {x(t)},0≤t≤τ, with boundary conditions x(0)=N and x(τ) = 1. This model is shown to be exactly solvable: P_{N}(τ), the probability that the process survives for time τ is analytically evaluated. In the limit of large N, the asymptotic form of this probability distribution is Gaussian, with mean and variance both varying logarithmically with system size: 〈τ〉∼lnN and σ_{τ}^{2}∼lnN. Correspondence can be made between survival-time statistics in the SSR process and record statistics of independent and identically distributed random variables.

  7. Time-frequency / time-scale analysis

    CERN Document Server

    Flandrin, Patrick

    1999-01-01

    This highly acclaimed work has so far been available only in French. It is a detailed survey of a variety of techniques for time-frequency/time-scale analysis (the essence of "Wavelet Analysis"). This book has broad and comprehensive coverage of a topic of keen interest to a variety of engineers, especially those concerned with signal and image processing. Flandrin provides a discussion of numerous issues and problems that arise from a mixed description in time and frequency, as well as problems in interpretation inherent in signal theory. Key Features * Detailed coverage of both linear and quadratic solutions * Various techniques for both random and deterministic signals.

  8. Regression analysis of restricted mean survival time based on pseudo-observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Hansen, Mette Gerster; Klein, John P.

    censoring; hazard function; health economics; regression model; survival analysis; mean survival time; restricted mean survival time; pseudo-observations......censoring; hazard function; health economics; regression model; survival analysis; mean survival time; restricted mean survival time; pseudo-observations...

  9. Regression Analysis of Restricted Mean Survival Time Based on Pseudo-Observations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Andersen, Per Kragh; Hansen, Mette Gerster; Klein, John P.

    2004-01-01

    censoring; hazard function; health economics; mean survival time; pseudo-observations; regression model; restricted mean survival time; survival analysis......censoring; hazard function; health economics; mean survival time; pseudo-observations; regression model; restricted mean survival time; survival analysis...

  10. Integral equations on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Georgiev, Svetlin G

    2016-01-01

    This book offers the reader an overview of recent developments of integral equations on time scales. It also contains elegant analytical and numerical methods. This book is primarily intended for senior undergraduate students and beginning graduate students of engineering and science courses. The students in mathematical and physical sciences will find many sections of direct relevance. The book contains nine chapters and each chapter is pedagogically organized. This book is specially designed for those who wish to understand integral equations on time scales without having extensive mathematical background.

  11. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached by focusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kind of substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time. The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “ever-living present.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductory matter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternal recurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is a treatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations in the n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have done away with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives as eternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of the nature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notion of holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory. I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence of actual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in his reflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentially more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in the last section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin, as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’s inspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretation leads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of its reconciliation

  12. Time scales in spectator fragmentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwarz, C.; Fritz, S.; Bassini, R.; Begemann-Blaich, M.; Gaff-Ejakov, S. J.; Gourio, D.; Groß, C.; Immé, G.; Iori, I.; Kleinevoß, U.; Kunde, G. J.; Kunze, W. D.; Lynen, U.; Maddalena, V.; Mahi, M.; Möhlenkamp, T.; Moroni, A.; Müller, W. F. J.; Nociforo, G.; Ocker, B.; Ohed, T.; Pertruzzelli, F.; Pochodzalla, J.; Raciti, G.; Riccobene, G.; Romano, F. P.; Saija, A.; Schnittker, M.; Schüttauf, A.; Seidel, W.; Serfling, V.; Sfienti, C.; Trautmann, W.; Trzcinski, A.; Verde, G.; Wörner, A.; Xi, Hongfei; Zwieglinski, B.

    2001-01-01

    Proton-proton correlations and correlations of p-alpha, d-alpha, and t-alpha from spectator decays following Au + Au collisions at 1000 AMeV have been measured with an highly efficient detector hodoscope. The constructed correlation functions indicate a moderate expansion and low breakup densities similar to assumptions made in statistical multifragmentation models. In agreement with a volume breakup rather short time scales were deduced employing directional cuts in proton-proton correlations. PACS numbers: 25.70.Pq, 21.65.+f, 25.70.Mn

  13. Competitive Dynamics of Market Entry: Scale and Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John W. UPSON

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Market entry is the essence of strategy and is largely viewed as a dichotomous event: entry or no entry. What has not been acknowledged is the uniqueness of each market entry. Our study highlights the scale of market entry in the context of multipoint competition. We assert that entry scale varies based on the risk of market incumbent retaliation. Theory suggests that when risk associated with retaliation are low, firms enter with large scale and when associated risks are high, firms enter with low scale. Further, survival is viewed as dependent on following theory. We argue and find supporting evidence that firms behave in the opposite manner and do so to their own benefit, thereby revealing a unique discrepancy between theory and practice among 75 product market entries by 27 firms.

  14. Cranial trauma and the assessment of posttraumatic survival time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Steyn, M.; de Boer, H. H. [=Hans H.; van der Merwe, A. E.

    2014-01-01

    Assessment of trauma on skeletal remains can be very difficult, especially when it comes to the estimation of posttraumatic survival time in partially healed lesions. The ability to reliably estimate the time an individual has survived after sustaining an injury is especially important in cases of

  15. Five-year survival and median survival time of nasopharyngeal carcinoma in Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Siti-Azrin, Ab Hamid; Norsa'adah, Bachok; Naing, Nyi Nyi

    2014-01-01

    Nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) is the fourth most common cancer in Malaysia. The objective of this study was to determine the five-year survival rate and median survival time of NPC patients in Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). One hundred and thirty four NPC cases confirmed by histopathology in Hospital USM between 1st January 1998 and 31st December 2007 that fulfilled the inclusion and exclusion criteria were retrospectively reviewed. Survival time of NPC patients were estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Log-rank tests were performed to compare survival of cases among presenting symptoms, WHO type, TNM classification and treatment modalities. The overall five-year survival rate of NPC patients was 38.0% (95% confidence interval (CI): 29.1, 46.9). The overall median survival time of NPC patients was 31.30 months (95%CI: 23.76, 38.84). The significant factors that altered the survival rate and time were age (p=0.041), cranial nerve involvement (p=0.012), stage (p=0.002), metastases (p=0.008) and treatment (p<0.001). The median survival of NPC patients is significantly longer for age≤50 years, no cranial nerve involvement, and early stage and is dependent on treatment modalities.

  16. Time series modeling of system self-assessment of survival

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lu, H.; Kolarik, W.J. [Texas Tech Univ., Lubbock, TX (United States). Dept. of Industrial Engineering

    1999-06-01

    Self-assessment of survival for a system, subsystem or component is implemented by assessing conditional performance reliability in real-time, which includes modeling and analysis of physical performance data. This paper proposes a time series analysis approach to system self-assessment (prediction) of survival. In the approach, physical performance data are modeled in a time series. The performance forecast is based on the model developed and is converted to the reliability of system survival. In contrast to a standard regression model, a time series model, using on-line data, is suitable for the real-time performance prediction. This paper illustrates an example of time series modeling and survival assessment, regarding an excessive tool edge wear failure mode for a twist drill operation.

  17. Red cell survival time in chronic renal failure

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Rath, R.N.; Das, R.K.; Panda, R.K.; Mahakur, A.C.; Patnaik, S.R. (M.K.C.G. Medical College, Berhampur (India))

    1979-10-01

    The red cell survival time was estimated in 50 cases of chronic renal failure and 20 healthy subjects, using radioactive chromium /sup 51/Cr. The mean value of red cell survival half time (T1/2/sup 51/Cr) was determined to be 25.9 +- 1.1 days in control subjects. The red cell survival half time (17.9 +- 4.67 days) was found to be significantly decreased in cases of chronic renal failure, when compared to the control group. An inverse relationship was observed between T1/2/sup 51/Cr value and blood urea, serum creatinine, the magnitude of hypertension, and duration of illness, whereas, creatinine clearance showed a direct relationship. There was no increased splenic uptake of radioactive chromium, indicating that haemolysis occurred elsewhere in the circulation other than spleen. The possible mechanism for the reduction of red cell survival time and the effect of uraemic environment on it has been discussed.

  18. Piecewise exponential survival trees with time-dependent covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, X; Chen, S; Soong, S J

    1998-12-01

    Survival trees methods are nonparametric alternatives to the semiparametric Cox regression in survival analysis. In this paper, a tree-based method for censored survival data with time-dependent covariates is proposed. The proposed method assumes a very general model for the hazard function and is fully nonparametric. The recursive partitioning algorithm uses the likelihood estimation procedure to grow trees under a piecewise exponential structure that handles time-dependent covariates in a parallel way to time-independent covariates. In general, the estimated hazard at a node gives the risk for a group of individuals during a specific time period. Both cross-validation and bootstrap resampling techniques are implemented in the tree selection procedure. The performance of the proposed survival trees method is shown to be good through simulation and application to real data.

  19. Survival time of direct dental restorations in adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Thaís Torres Barros Dutra

    Full Text Available AbstractIntroductionThe presence of dental caries is the main reason for the placement and replacement of restorations. Maintaining restorations to a satisfactory clinical condition is a challenge, despite the evolution of materials and surgical operative techniques.ObjectiveTo investigate the survival time and technical-operatory characteristics of dental restorations among adults in Teresina-PI.Material and methodData collection was carried out from September 2009 to January 2010 at a non-profit dental service. Data were collected at the moment of restoration replacement. The sample consisted of 262 defective restorations in 139 individuals. Survival time was calculated using the placement date that was registered on the individual’s dental form. Kruskal-Wallis and Mann-Whitney tests were used to compare the survival time of the different types of restorations and the chi-square test was used to assess the association between qualitative variables, at a 5% significance level.ResultThe median survival time of the restorations was 2 years. The survival time for amalgam was higher than for composite and glass ionomer cement (p=0.004. The most replaced dental material was the composite (66.4%. The majority of the replaced restorations had been placed in anterior teeth, in proximal surfaces.ConclusionAmalgam restorations have a longer survival time than composite resin. Technical and operatory variables had no influence on the survival time of restorations. Dental restorations have a low survival time and this fact might be associated with the decion-making process that is adopted by the professionals.

  20. Time scales, their users, and leap seconds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seidelmann, P. Kenneth; Seago, John H.

    2011-08-01

    Numerous time scales exist to address specific user requirements. Accurate dynamical time scales (barycentric, geocentric and terrestrial) have been developed based on the theory of relativity. A family of time scales has been developed based on the rotation of the Earth that includes Universal Time (specifically UT1), which serves as the traditional astronomical basis of civil time. International Atomic Time (TAI) is also maintained as a fundamental time scale based on the output of atomic frequency standards. Coordinated Universal Time (UTC) is an atomic scale for worldwide civil timekeeping, referenced to TAI, but with epoch adjustments via so-called leap seconds to remain within one second of UT1. A review of the development of the time scales, the status of the leap-second issue, and user considerations and perspectives are discussed. A description of some more recent applications for time usage is included.

  1. Investigation of survival time of some poultry mycoplasmas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simon, A; Tamasi, G; Stipkovits, L

    1989-01-01

    Glucose-fermenting poultry mycoplasmas (Mycoplasma [M.] gallisepticum, M. pullorum, M. gallinaceum, M. gallopavonis) were tested in 2 experiments for their survival time at 20 degrees C and 37 degrees C on 18 different materials used on farms and in hatcheries. All mycoplasmas survived up to 16 days in egg yolk at both temperatures. On other materials, like egg shell, egg white, paper trails, feather, and others mycoplasmas generally survived 2 to 16 days at 20 degrees C. M. gallinaceum and M. gallopavonis proved more resistant to the environment than M. gallisepticum and M. pullorum.

  2. Graphing survival curve estimates for time-dependent covariates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schultz, Lonni R; Peterson, Edward L; Breslau, Naomi

    2002-01-01

    Graphical representation of statistical results is often used to assist readers in the interpretation of the findings. This is especially true for survival analysis where there is an interest in explaining the patterns of survival over time for specific covariates. For fixed categorical covariates, such as a group membership indicator, Kaplan-Meier estimates (1958) can be used to display the curves. For time-dependent covariates this method may not be adequate. Simon and Makuch (1984) proposed a technique that evaluates the covariate status of the individuals remaining at risk at each event time. The method takes into account the change in an individual's covariate status over time. The survival computations are the same as the Kaplan-Meier method, in that the conditional survival estimates are the function of the ratio of the number of events to the number at risk at each event time. The difference between the two methods is that the individuals at risk within each level defined by the covariate is not fixed at time 0 in the Simon and Makuch method as it is with the Kaplan-Meier method. Examples of how the two methods can differ for time dependent covariates in Cox proportional hazards regression analysis are presented.

  3. Estimates of expansion time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, E. M.

    Monte Carlo simulations of the expansion of a spacefaring civilization show that descendants of that civilization should be found near virtually every useful star in the Galaxy in a time much less than the current age of the Galaxy. Only extreme assumptions about local population growth rates, emigration rates, or ship ranges can slow or halt an expansion. The apparent absence of extraterrestrials from the solar system suggests that no such civilization has arisen in the Galaxy.

  4. effect of liquid nitrogen storage time on the survival and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Administrator

    Investigations were undertaken on the effect of liquid nitrogen (LN) storage time on survival and regeneration of somatic embryos of cocoa (Theobroma cacao l.). Somatic embryos from different cocoa genotypes (AMAZ 3-. 2, AMAZ 10-1, AMAZ 12, SIAL 93, and IMC 14) at 15.45% moisture content were cryopreserved in LN ...

  5. Effect of liquid nitrogen storage time on the survival and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Investigations were undertaken on the effect of liquid nitrogen (LN) storage time on survival and regeneration of somatic embryos of cocoa (Theobroma cacao l.). Somatic embryos from different cocoa genotypes (AMAZ 3-2, AMAZ 10-1, AMAZ 12, SIAL 93, and IMC 14) at 15.45% moisture content were cryopreserved in LN ...

  6. Kalman plus weights: a time scale algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Greenhall, C. A.

    2001-01-01

    KPW is a time scale algorithm that combines Kalman filtering with the basic time scale equation (BTSE). A single Kalman filter that estimates all clocks simultaneously is used to generate the BTSE frequency estimates, while the BTSE weights are inversely proportional to the white FM variances of the clocks. Results from simulated clock ensembles are compared to previous simulation results from other algorithms.

  7. Time Scale in Least Square Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özgür Yeniay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Study of dynamic equations in time scale is a new area in mathematics. Time scale tries to build a bridge between real numbers and integers. Two derivatives in time scale have been introduced and called as delta and nabla derivative. Delta derivative concept is defined as forward direction, and nabla derivative concept is defined as backward direction. Within the scope of this study, we consider the method of obtaining parameters of regression equation of integer values through time scale. Therefore, we implemented least squares method according to derivative definition of time scale and obtained coefficients related to the model. Here, there exist two coefficients originating from forward and backward jump operators relevant to the same model, which are different from each other. Occurrence of such a situation is equal to total number of values of vertical deviation between regression equations and observation values of forward and backward jump operators divided by two. We also estimated coefficients for the model using ordinary least squares method. As a result, we made an introduction to least squares method on time scale. We think that time scale theory would be a new vision in least square especially when assumptions of linear regression are violated.

  8. Juvenile Salmon Scale Data - Ocean Survival of Salmonids

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A study to evaluate the role of changing ocean conditions on growth and survival of juvenile salmon from the Columbia River basin as they enter the Columbia River...

  9. Estimation of diver survival time in a lost bell

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tipton, M.J.; Franks, C. [Surrey Univ., Guildford (United Kingdom); Meneilly, G.S. [British Columbia Univ., Vancouver, BC (Canada). Dept. of Medicine; Mekjavic, I.B. [Simon Fraser University, Vancouver (Canada). Dept. of Kinesiology

    1997-04-01

    Mathematical models of the human thermoregulatory system have been used to make predictions of the likely survival of divers in a ``lost bell`` who can be exposed to very low ambient temperatures. The circumstances considered are not the most extreme but those where, partly by shivering, the individual can re-enter thermal balance. The ability accurately to predict the level and duration of metabolic heat production is critical for the estimation of survival time under these conditions. Limitations on the accuracy of current models arise from the lack of precision in modelling the intensity and duration of the metabolic (shivering) response. A different basis for predicting shivering endurance using the time to hypogylcaemia (blood glucose level less than 2.5 mmol/1) is proposed. This leads to predicted survival times ranging from 10 to over 24 hours for those individuals able to stabilise deep body temperature. This seems to be more consistent with the limited experimental data which exists than the 8-9 hours predicted by other models. In order to help maintain blood sugar levels, and hence metabolic heat production, it is recommended that emergency rations within bells should provide 500g of carbohydrate a day. (59 figures; 221 references). (UK)

  10. Random integral equations on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile Lupulescu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we present the existence and uniqueness of random solution of a random integral equation of Volterra type on time scales. We also study the asymptotic properties of the unique random solution.

  11. JY1 time scale: a new Kalman-filter time scale designed at NIST

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yao, Jian; Parker, Thomas E.; Levine, Judah

    2017-11-01

    We report on a new Kalman-filter hydrogen-maser time scale (i.e. JY1 time scale) designed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The JY1 time scale is composed of a few hydrogen masers and a commercial Cs clock. The Cs clock is used as a reference clock to ease operations with existing data. Unlike other time scales, the JY1 time scale uses three basic time-scale equations, instead of only one equation. Also, this time scale can detect a clock error (i.e. time error, frequency error, or frequency drift error) automatically. These features make the JY1 time scale stiff and less likely to be affected by an abnormal clock. Tests show that the JY1 time scale deviates from the UTC by less than  ±5 ns for ~100 d, when the time scale is initially aligned to the UTC and then is completely free running. Once the time scale is steered to a Cs fountain, it can maintain the time with little error even if the Cs fountain stops working for tens of days. This can be helpful when we do not have a continuously operated fountain or when the continuously operated fountain accidentally stops, or when optical clocks run occasionally.

  12. Even order self adjoint time scale problems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas R. Anderson

    2005-02-01

    Full Text Available Even order self adjoint differential time scale expressions are introduced, together with associated self adjoint boundary conditions; the result is established by induction. Several fourth-order nabla-delta delta-nabla examples are given for select self adjoint boundary conditions, together with the specific corresponding Green's functions over common time scales. One derived Green's function is shown directly to be symmetric.

  13. Equilibration Time Scales of Physically Relevant Observables

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    Luis Pedro García-Pintos

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available We address the problem of understanding, from first principles, the conditions under which a quantum system equilibrates rapidly with respect to a concrete observable. On the one hand, previously known general upper bounds on the time scales of equilibration were unrealistically long, with times scaling linearly with the dimension of the Hilbert space. These bounds proved to be tight since particular constructions of observables scaling in this way were found. On the other hand, the computed equilibration time scales for certain classes of typical measurements, or under the evolution of typical Hamiltonians, are unrealistically short. However, most physically relevant situations fall outside these two classes. In this paper, we provide a new upper bound on the equilibration time scales which, under some physically reasonable conditions, give much more realistic results than previously known. In particular, we apply this result to the paradigmatic case of a system interacting with a thermal bath, where we obtain an upper bound for the equilibration time scale independent of the size of the bath. In this way, we find general conditions that single out observables with realistic equilibration times within a physically relevant setup.

  14. Metabolic imaging in multiple time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramanujan, V Krishnan

    2014-03-15

    We report here a novel combination of time-resolved imaging methods for probing mitochondrial metabolism in multiple time scales at the level of single cells. By exploiting a mitochondrial membrane potential reporter fluorescence we demonstrate the single cell metabolic dynamics in time scales ranging from microseconds to seconds to minutes in response to glucose metabolism and mitochondrial perturbations in real time. Our results show that in comparison with normal human mammary epithelial cells, the breast cancer cells display significant alterations in metabolic responses at all measured time scales by single cell kinetics, fluorescence recovery after photobleaching and by scaling analysis of time-series data obtained from mitochondrial fluorescence fluctuations. Furthermore scaling analysis of time-series data in living cells with distinct mitochondrial dysfunction also revealed significant metabolic differences thereby suggesting the broader applicability (e.g. in mitochondrial myopathies and other metabolic disorders) of the proposed strategies beyond the scope of cancer metabolism. We discuss the scope of these findings in the context of developing portable, real-time metabolic measurement systems that can find applications in preclinical and clinical diagnostics. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. The two-parametric scaling and new temporal asymptotic of survival probability of diffusing particle in the medium with traps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhincheev, V E

    2017-03-01

    The new asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps in an electric field has been established in two ways-by using the scaling approach and by the direct solution of the diffusion equation in the field. It has shown that at long times, this drift mechanism leads to a new temporal behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps.

  16. Time dependent ethnic convergence in colorectal cancer survival in hawaii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hundahl Scott A

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer death rates have been declining, this trend is not consistent across all ethnic groups. Biological, environmental, behavioral and socioeconomic explanations exist, but the reason for this discrepancy remains inconclusive. We examined the hypothesis that improved cancer screening across all ethnic groups will reduce ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival. Methods Through the Hawaii Tumor Registry 16,424 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified during the years 1960–2000. Cox regression analyses were performed for each of three cohorts stratified by ethnicity (Caucasian, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, and Chinese. The models included stage of diagnosis, year of diagnosis, age, and sex as predictors of survival. Results Mortality rates improved significantly for all ethnic groups. Moreover, with the exception of Hawaiians, rates for all ethnic groups converged over time. Persistently lower survival for Hawaiians appeared linked with more cancer treatment. Conclusion Ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer mortality rates appear primarily the result of differential utilization of health care. If modern screening procedures can be provided equally to all ethnic groups, ethnic outcome differences can be virtually eliminated.

  17. Long term stability of atomic time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petit, Gérard; Arias, Elisa Felicitas

    2012-08-01

    International Atomic Time TAI gets its stability from some 400 atomic clocks worldwide that generate the free atomic scale EA L and its accuracy from a small number of primary frequency standards (PFS) which frequency measurements are used to steer the EAL frequency. Because TAI is computed in "real - time" (every month) and has operational constraints, it is not optimal and the BIPM computes in deferred time another time scale TT(BIPM), which is based on a weighted average of the evaluations of TAI frequency by the PFS. We show that a point has been reached where the stability of atomic time scales, the accuracy of primary frequency standards, and the capabilities of frequency transfer are approximately at a similar level, in the low 10 - 16 in relative frequency. The goal is now to reach and surpass 1x10 - 16 and the three fields are in various stages of advancement towards this aim. We review the stability and accuracy recently achieved by frequency standards, focusing on primary frequency standards on one hand, and on new secondary realizations e.g. based on optical transitions on the other hand. We study how these performances can translate to the performance of atomic time scales, and the possible implications of the availability of new high - accuracy frequency standards operating on a regular basis. Finally we show how time transfer is trying to keep up with the progresses of frequency standards. Time transfer is presently the limiting factor at short averaging time (e.g. 1 - 2 weeks) but it should not be limiting the long term stability of atomic time scales, which is the main need of many applications in astronomy.

  18. Time scales involved in emergent market coherence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwapień, J.; Drożdż, S.; Speth, J.

    2004-06-01

    In addressing the question of the time scales characteristic for the market formation, we analyze high-frequency tick-by-tick data from the NYSE and from the German market. By using returns on various time scales ranging from seconds or minutes up to 2 days, we compare magnitude of the largest eigenvalue of the correlation matrix for the same set of securities but for different time scales. For various sets of stocks of different capitalization (and the average trading frequency), we observe a significant elevation of the largest eigenvalue with increasing time scale. Our results from the correlation matrix study can be considered as a manifestation of the so-called Epps effect. There is no unique explanation of this effect and it seems that many different factors play a role here. One of such factors is randomness in transaction moments for different stocks. Another interesting conclusion to be drawn from our results is that in the contemporary markets the emergence of significant correlations occurs on time scales much smaller than in the more distant history.

  19. Length and Time Scales in Continental Drift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Phillips, B. R.; Bunge, H.

    2003-12-01

    Nonlinear feedback between continents and the mantle through thermal blanketing has long been surmised as a mechanism for continental drift and Wilson cycles. Paleomagnetism provides ample evidence for large scale (10,000 km) continental motion on time scales of several hundred million years, indicative of large scale mantle circulation. While much has been learned about the interactions between continents and mantle flow from analog and numerical modeling studies in two and three dimensions, a rigorous sensitivity study on the effects of continents in high resolution 3D spherical mantle convection models has yet to be pursued. As a result, a quantitative understanding of the scales of continental motion as they relate to relevant fluid dynamic processes is lacking. Here we focus on the effect of continental size. Continents covering 30% of the surface are representative of a supercontinent such as Pangea, smaller continents (10% of Earth's surface) are representative of present day Asia, and still smaller continents (3% of Earth's surface) are similar to present day Antarctica. These continents are introduced into simple end-member mantle flow regimes characterized by combinations of bottom or internal heating and uniform or layered mantle viscosity. We find that large scale mantle structure, and correspondingly the large scale displacement of continents, depends not only on mantle heating mode and radial viscosity structure, but also on continental size. Supercontinents promote heterogeneity on the largest scales (spherical harmonic degree one), especially when combined with strong bottom heating and a high viscosity lower mantle. Degree one heterogeneities in turn drive cyclical continental motion, with continents moving from the hot to the cold hemisphere on time scales of several hundred million years. Smaller continents are unable to initiate degree one convection. As a result, their motion is governed by shorter length and time scales. We apply these

  20. Conformable fractional Dirac system on time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gulsen, Tuba; Yilmaz, Emrah; Goktas, Sertac

    2017-01-01

    We study the conformable fractional (CF) Dirac system with separated boundary conditions on an arbitrary time scale [Formula: see text]. Then we extend some basic spectral properties of the classical Dirac system to the CF case. Eventually, some asymptotic estimates for the eigenfunction of the CF Dirac eigenvalue problem are obtained on [Formula: see text]. So, we provide a constructive procedure for the solution of this problem. These results are important steps to consolidate the link between fractional calculus and time scale calculus in spectral theory.

  1. Multivariable dynamic calculus on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Bohner, Martin

    2016-01-01

    This book offers the reader an overview of recent developments of multivariable dynamic calculus on time scales, taking readers beyond the traditional calculus texts. Covering topics from parameter-dependent integrals to partial differentiation on time scales, the book’s nine pedagogically oriented chapters provide a pathway to this active area of research that will appeal to students and researchers in mathematics and the physical sciences. The authors present a clear and well-organized treatment of the concept behind the mathematics and solution techniques, including many practical examples and exercises.

  2. The hippocampus, time, and memory across scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Marc W; Eichenbaum, Howard

    2013-11-01

    A wealth of experimental studies with animals have offered insights about how neural networks within the hippocampus support the temporal organization of memories. These studies have revealed the existence of "time cells" that encode moments in time, much as the well-known "place cells" map locations in space. Another line of work inspired by human behavioral studies suggests that episodic memories are mediated by a state of temporal context that changes gradually over long time scales, up to at least a few thousand seconds. In this view, the "mental time travel" hypothesized to support the experience of episodic memory corresponds to a "jump back in time" in which a previous state of temporal context is recovered. We suggest that these 2 sets of findings could be different facets of a representation of temporal history that maintains a record at the last few thousand seconds of experience. The ability to represent long time scales comes at the cost of discarding precise information about when a stimulus was experienced--this uncertainty becomes greater for events further in the past. We review recent computational work that describes a mechanism that could construct such a scale-invariant representation. Taken as a whole, this suggests the hippocampus plays its role in multiple aspects of cognition by representing events embedded in a general spatiotemporal context. The representation of internal time can be useful across nonhippocampal memory systems. PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2013 APA, all rights reserved.

  3. The Second Noether Theorem on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka B. Malinowska

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We extend the second Noether theorem to variational problems on time scales. As corollaries we obtain the classical second Noether theorem, the second Noether theorem for the h-calculus and the second Noether theorem for the q-calculus.

  4. Stability of graph communities across time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delvenne, J-C; Yaliraki, S N; Barahona, M

    2010-07-20

    The complexity of biological, social, and engineering networks makes it desirable to find natural partitions into clusters (or communities) that can provide insight into the structure of the overall system and even act as simplified functional descriptions. Although methods for community detection abound, there is a lack of consensus on how to quantify and rank the quality of partitions. We introduce here the stability of a partition, a measure of its quality as a community structure based on the clustered autocovariance of a dynamic Markov process taking place on the network. Because the stability has an intrinsic dependence on time scales of the graph, it allows us to compare and rank partitions at each time and also to establish the time spans over which partitions are optimal. Hence the Markov time acts effectively as an intrinsic resolution parameter that establishes a hierarchy of increasingly coarser communities. Our dynamical definition provides a unifying framework for several standard partitioning measures: modularity and normalized cut size can be interpreted as one-step time measures, whereas Fiedler's spectral clustering emerges at long times. We apply our method to characterize the relevance of partitions over time for constructive and real networks, including hierarchical graphs and social networks, and use it to obtain reduced descriptions for atomic-level protein structures over different time scales.

  5. Implications of short time scale dynamics on long time processes

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krystel El Hage

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available This review provides a comprehensive overview of the structural dynamics in topical gas- and condensed-phase systems on multiple length and time scales. Starting from vibrationally induced dissociation of small molecules in the gas phase, the question of vibrational and internal energy redistribution through conformational dynamics is further developed by considering coupled electron/proton transfer in a model peptide over many orders of magnitude. The influence of the surrounding solvent is probed for electron transfer to the solvent in hydrated I−. Next, the dynamics of a modified PDZ domain over many time scales is analyzed following activation of a photoswitch. The hydration dynamics around halogenated amino acid side chains and their structural dynamics in proteins are relevant for iodinated TyrB26 insulin. Binding of nitric oxide to myoglobin is a process for which experimental and computational analyses have converged to a common view which connects rebinding time scales and the underlying dynamics. Finally, rhodopsin is a paradigmatic system for multiple length- and time-scale processes for which experimental and computational methods provide valuable insights into the functional dynamics. The systems discussed here highlight that for a comprehensive understanding of how structure, flexibility, energetics, and dynamics contribute to functional dynamics, experimental studies in multiple wavelength regions and computational studies including quantum, classical, and more coarse grained levels are required.

  6. Significance of time scale differences in psychophysics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klonowski, W

    2009-02-01

    We present modeling of both rational processes (thoughts) and emotional processes (feelings) on a two-dimensional lattice and on extremely simplified two-dimensional phase space of the brain. Our purpose is to analyze influence of differences in time-scales of various types of processes. In particular, we show that no 'central executive structure' between consciousness and unconsciousness, the existence of which was suggested by psychologists, is not needed.

  7. Some nonlinear dynamic inequalities on time scales

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In what follows, R denotes the set of real numbers, Z denotes the set of integers and C denotes the set of complex numbers. A time scale T is an ..... {[p − 1 + a(t)]e ¯A(t, t0) − (p − 1)}1/p for all t ∈ T0. The proof of Corollary 3.3 is complete. 4. An application. In this section, we present an example to illustrate our main results.

  8. Functional Status, Time to Transplantation, and Survival Benefit of Kidney Transplantation Among Wait-Listed Candidates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Peter P.; Shults, Justine; Bloom, Roy D.; Mussell, Adam; Harhay, Meera N.; Abt, Peter; Levine, Matthew; Johansen, Kirsten L.; Karlawish, Jason T.; Feldman, Harold I.

    2015-01-01

    Background In the context of an aging end-stage renal disease population with multiple comorbidities, transplantation professionals face challenges in evaluating the global health of patients awaiting kidney transplantation. Functional status might be useful for identifying which patients will derive a survival benefit from transplantation versus dialysis. Study Design Retrospective cohort study of wait-listed patients using data on functional status from a national dialysis provider linked to United Network for Organ Sharing registry data. Setting & Participants Adult kidney transplant candidates added to the waiting list between the years 2000 and 2006. Predictor Physical function scale of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Healthy Survey, analyzed as a time-varying covariate. Outcomes Kidney transplantation; Survival benefit of transplantation versus remaining wait-listed. Measurements We used multivariable Cox regression to assess the association between physical function with study outcomes. In survival benefit analyses, transplant status was modeled as a time-varying covariate. Results The cohort comprised 19,242 kidney transplant candidates (median age, 51 years; 36% black race) receiving maintenance dialysis. Candidates in the lowest baseline physical function quartile were more likely to be inactivated (adjusted HR vs. highest quartile, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.21-1.39) and less likely to undergo transplantation (adjusted HR vs. highest quartile, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.68). After transplantation, worse physical function was associated with shorter 3-year survival (84% vs. 92% for the lowest vs. highest function quartiles). However, compared to dialysis, transplantation was associated with a statistically significant survival benefit by 9 months for patients in every function quartile. Limitations Functional status is self-reported. Conclusions Even patients with low function appear to live longer with kidney transplantation versus dialysis. For waitlisted

  9. uncertain dynamic systems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lakshmikantham

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available A basic feedback control problem is that of obtaining some desired stability property from a system which contains uncertainties due to unknown inputs into the system. Despite such imperfect knowledge in the selected mathematical model, we often seek to devise controllers that will steer the system in a certain required fashion. Various classes of controllers whose design is based on the method of Lyapunov are known for both discrete [4], [10], [15], and continuous [3–9], [11] models described by difference and differential equations, respectively. Recently, a theory for what is known as dynamic systems on time scales has been built which incorporates both continuous and discrete times, namely, time as an arbitrary closed sets of reals, and allows us to handle both systems simultaneously [1], [2], [12], [13]. This theory permits one to get some insight into and better understanding of the subtle differences between discrete and continuous systems. We shall, in this paper, utilize the framework of the theory of dynamic systems on time scales to investigate the stability properties of conditionally invariant sets which are then applied to discuss controlled systems with uncertain elements. For the notion of conditionally invariant set and its stability properties, see [14]. Our results offer a new approach to the problem in question.

  10. Discounting in Games across Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krishnendu Chatterjee

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available We introduce two-level discounted games played by two players on a perfect-information stochastic game graph. The upper level game is a discounted game and the lower level game is an undiscounted reachability game. Two-level games model hierarchical and sequential decision making under uncertainty across different time scales. We show the existence of pure memoryless optimal strategies for both players and an ordered field property for such games. We show that if there is only one player (Markov decision processes, then the values can be computed in polynomial time. It follows that whether the value of a player is equal to a given rational constant in two-level discounted games can be decided in NP intersected coNP. We also give an alternate strategy improvement algorithm to compute the value.

  11. Parametric instabilities in picosecond time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Baldis, H.A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab., CA (United States); Rozmus, W. [Alberta Univ., Edmonton, AB (Canada). Dept. of Physics; Labaune, C.; Mounaix, Ph.; Pesme, D.; Baton, S. [Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau (France); Tikhonchuk, V.T. [P.N. Lebedev Physics Inst., Moscow (Russian Federation)

    1993-03-01

    The coupling of intense laser light with plasmas is a rich field of plasma physics, with many applications. Among these are inertial confinement fusion (ICF), x-ray lasers, particle acceleration, and x-ray sources. Parametric instabilities have been studied for many years because of their importance to ICF; with laser pulses with duration of approximately a nanosecond, and laser intensities in the range 10{sup 14}--10{sup 15}W/cm{sup 2} these instabilities are of crucial concern because of a number of detrimental effects. Although the laser pulse duration of interest for these studies are relatively long, it has been evident in the past years that to reach an understanding of these instabilities requires their characterization and analysis in picosecond time scales. At the laser intensities of interest, the growth rate for stimulated Brillouin scattering (SBS) is of the order of picoseconds, and of an order of magnitude shorter for stimulated Raman scattering (SRS). In this paper the authors discuss SBS and SRS in the context of their evolution in picosecond time scales. They describe the fundamental concepts associated with their growth and saturation, and recent work on the nonlinear treatment required for the modeling of these instabilities at high laser intensities.

  12. Biotic survival in the cryobiosphere on geological scale: implication for astro/terrestrial biogeoscience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilichinsky, D.

    2003-04-01

    and exposes ancient life to modern ecosystems. It is now possible for the first time to use actual functional indices of viable organisms and the most complete pollen spectrum based on RNA sequences for paleoreconstructions in the frozen mantle of the Earth. Unique to the permafrost, the good preservation DNA the wide implications may have the development of a microbiological time-scale using the progress in molecular biology. The phylogenetic trees of the same organisms from the modern layers to the several millions years old, will help to find out what are the differences among members of the same species as we go back in time. This would be a beginning of studies concerning the rate of evolution and biological clocks extending back the duration of the permanently frozen state in the soils and the age of biota. From an exobiological point of view, the terrestrial permafrost and ice, inhabited by cold adapted microbes and protecting the cells against unfavorable conditions can be considered as an extraterrestrial model. The cells and their metabolic end-products found in the Earth's permafrost provide a range of analogues that could be used in the search for possible ecosystems and potential inhabitants on extraterrestrial cryogenic bodies. If life should be found to have distribution in the Cosmos beyond the Earth and existed on other planets during the early stages of development, then its traces may consist of primitive cryogenic forms at the cell level within the extraterrestrial permanently frozen materials. That is more, it could be hypothesized, for example, that subsurface Martian permafrost might survive the genetic resources of preexisting life that vanished due the catastrophic events on the planet. The main difference between Earth's and Martian permafrost is their age: few million and few billion years, correspondingly. This difference in time scale have a significant impact on the possibility for life preservation and terrestrial frozen sediments

  13. EDITORIAL: Special issue on time scale algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsakis, Demetrios; Tavella, Patrizia

    2008-12-01

    This special issue of Metrologia presents selected papers from the Fifth International Time Scale Algorithm Symposium (VITSAS), including some of the tutorials presented on the first day. The symposium was attended by 76 persons, from every continent except Antarctica, by students as well as senior scientists, and hosted by the Real Instituto y Observatorio de la Armada (ROA) in San Fernando, Spain, whose staff further enhanced their nation's high reputation for hospitality. Although a timescale can be simply defined as a weighted average of clocks, whose purpose is to measure time better than any individual clock, timescale theory has long been and continues to be a vibrant field of research that has both followed and helped to create advances in the art of timekeeping. There is no perfect timescale algorithm, because every one embodies a compromise involving user needs. Some users wish to generate a constant frequency, perhaps not necessarily one that is well-defined with respect to the definition of a second. Other users might want a clock which is as close to UTC or a particular reference clock as possible, or perhaps wish to minimize the maximum variation from that standard. In contrast to the steered timescales that would be required by those users, other users may need free-running timescales, which are independent of external information. While no algorithm can meet all these needs, every algorithm can benefit from some form of tuning. The optimal tuning, and even the optimal algorithm, can depend on the noise characteristics of the frequency standards, or of their comparison systems, the most precise and accurate of which are currently Two Way Satellite Time and Frequency Transfer (TWSTFT) and GPS carrier phase time transfer. The interest in time scale algorithms and its associated statistical methodology began around 40 years ago when the Allan variance appeared and when the metrological institutions started realizing ensemble atomic time using more than

  14. Survival

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — These data provide information on the survival of California red-legged frogs in a unique ecosystem to better conserve this threatened species while restoring...

  15. Time Horizon and Social Scale in Communication

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krantz, D. H.

    2010-12-01

    In 2009 our center (CRED) published a first version of The Psychology of Climate Change Communication. In it, we attempted to summarize facts and concepts from psychological research that could help guide communication. While this work focused on climate change, most of the ideas are at least partly applicable for communication about a variety of natural hazards. Of the many examples in this guide, I mention three. Single-action bias is the human tendency to stop considering further actions that might be needed to deal with a given hazard, once a single action has been taken. Another example is the importance of group affiliation in motivating voluntary contributions to joint action. A third concerns the finding that group participation enhances understanding of probabilistic concepts and promotes action in the face of uncertainty. One current research direction, which goes beyond those included in the above publication, focuses on how time horizons arise in the thinking of individuals and groups, and how these time horizons might influence hazard preparedness. On the one hand, individuals sometimes appear impatient, organizations look for immediate results, and officials fail to look beyond the next election cycle. Yet under some laboratory conditions and in some subcultures, a longer time horizon is adopted. We are interested in how time horizon is influenced by group identity and by the very architecture of planning and decision making. Institutional changes, involving long-term contractual relationships among communities, developers, insurers, and governments, could greatly increase resilience in the face of natural hazards. Communication about hazards, in the context of such long-term contractual relationships might look very different from communication that is first initiated by immediate threat. Another new direction concerns the social scale of institutions and of communication about hazards. Traditionally, insurance contracts share risk among a large

  16. Rubber dam may increase the survival time of dental restorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keys, William; Carson, Susan J

    2017-03-01

    Data sourcesCochrane Oral Health's Trials Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Medline, Embase, LILACS, SciELO, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database, VIP, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, ClinicalTrials.gov, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, OpenGrey and Sciencepaper Online databases. Handsearches in a number of journals.Study selectionRandomised controlled trials, including split-mouth studies assessing the effects of rubber dam isolation for restorative treatments in dental patients.Data extraction and synthesisTwo review authors independently screened the results of the electronic searches, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies.ResultsFour studies involving a total of 1,270 patients were included. The studies were at high risk of bias. One trial was excluded from the analysis due to inconsistencies in the presented data. Restorations had a significantly higher survival rate in the rubber dam isolation group compared to the cotton roll isolation group at six months in participants receiving composite restorative treatment of non-carious cervical lesions (risk ratio (RR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.37, very low-quality evidence). The rubber dam group had a lower risk of failure at two years in children undergoing proximal atraumatic restorative treatment in primary molars (hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.97, very low-quality evidence). One trial reported limited data showing that rubber dam usage during fissure sealing might shorten the treatment time. None of the included studies mentioned adverse effects or reported the direct cost of the treatment, or the level of patient acceptance/satisfaction. There was also no evidence evaluating the effects of rubber dam usage on the quality of the restorations.ConclusionsWe found some very low-quality evidence, from single studies, suggesting that rubber dam usage in dental direct

  17. Improving lung cancer survival; time to move on

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.E. Heuvers (Marlies); J.P.J.J. Hegmans (Joost); B.H.Ch. Stricker (Bruno); J.G.J.V. Aerts (Joachim)

    2012-01-01

    textabstractBackground: During the past decades, numerous efforts have been made to decrease the death rate among lung cancer patients. Nonetheless, the improvement in long-term survival has been limited and lung cancer is still a devastating disease.Discussion: With this article we would like to

  18. Density and nest survival of golden-cheeked warblers: Spatial scale matters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jennifer L. Reidy; Frank R., III Thompson; Lisa O' Donnell

    2017-01-01

    Conservation and management plans often rely on indicators such as species occupancy or density to define habitat quality, ignoring factors that influence reproductive success, and potentially limiting conservation achievements. We examined relationships between predicted density and nest survival with environmental features at multiple spatial scales for the golden-...

  19. Semiparametric Methods to Contrast Gap Time Survival Functions: Application to Repeat Kidney Transplantation

    OpenAIRE

    Shu, Xu; Schaubel, Douglas E.

    2015-01-01

    Times between successive events (i.e., gap times) are of great importance in survival analysis. Although many methods exist for estimating covariate effects on gap times, very few existing methods allow for comparisons between gap times themselves. Motivated by the comparison of primary and repeat transplantation, our interest is specifically in contrasting the gap time survival functions and their integration (restricted mean gap time). Two major challenges in gap time analysis are non-ident...

  20. Time Scales, Bedforms and Bedload Transport

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dhont, B.

    2015-12-01

    Bedload transport rates in mountain streams may exhibit wide fluctuations even under constant flow conditions. A better understanding of bedload pulses is key to predict natural hazards induced by torrential activity and sediment issues in mountainous areas. Several processes such as bedforms migration, grain sorting and random particles' trajectories are evoked as the driving agents of pulse formation and development. Quantifying the effects of these processes is a difficult task. This work aims to investigate the interactions between bedload transport and bedform dynamics in steep gravel-bed rivers. Experiments are carried out in a 17-m long 60-cm wide flume inclined at an angle of 2.7%. The bed is initially flat and made of homogenous natural gravel with a mean diameter of 6 mm. We imposed 200 identical hydrographs (of 1 hr duration) at the flume inlet (the bed surface was not flattened out during these cycling floods). The input hydrograph and the input sediment discharge are nearly triangular. Bed topography is measured after each flood using ultrasound sensors while the bedload transport rate is steadily monitored at the outlet using accelerometers (accelerometers fixed on metallic plates record the impacts of the grains flowing out of the flume). For the sake of comparison, a similar experiment consisting of 19 floods of 10 hours is carried out under constant supply conditions. We show that accelerometers are a cost effective technique to obtain high-frequency bedload discharge data. Spectral analysis of the bedload timeseries is used to highlight the different time scales corresponding to different bedload transport processes. We show that long timeseries are necessary to capture the different processes that drive bedload transport, including the resilience time after a perturbation of the bed. The alternate bars that develop and migrate along the flume are found to significantly influence bedload transport rate fluctuations.

  1. Survey Article: Ukraine's Industrial Enterprise: Surviving Hard Times

    OpenAIRE

    Fyodor I Kushnirsky

    1994-01-01

    Ukraine's industrial organizational structure, retaining the features of a planned system, has been slow to change. The state plays a greater role in controlling industrial production there than in Russia. Along with privatization, the government encourages different types of associations and conglomerates. Industry's dismal performance could probably be worse without surviving strategies used by enterprise management, such as retaining working collectives, loyalty to suppliers and buyers, av...

  2. Functional status, time to transplantation, and survival benefit of kidney transplantation among wait-listed candidates.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reese, Peter P; Shults, Justine; Bloom, Roy D; Mussell, Adam; Harhay, Meera N; Abt, Peter; Levine, Matthew; Johansen, Kirsten L; Karlawish, Jason T; Feldman, Harold I

    2015-11-01

    In the context of an aging end-stage renal disease population with multiple comorbid conditions, transplantation professionals face challenges in evaluating the global health of patients awaiting kidney transplantation. Functional status might be useful for identifying which patients will derive a survival benefit from transplantation versus dialysis. Retrospective cohort study of wait-listed patients using data for functional status from a national dialysis provider linked to United Network for Organ Sharing registry data. Adult kidney transplantation candidates added to the waiting list between 2000 and 2006. Physical Functioning scale of the Medical Outcomes Study 36-Item Short Form Health Survey, analyzed as a time-varying covariate. Kidney transplantation; survival benefit of transplantation versus remaining wait-listed. We used multivariable Cox regression to assess the association between physical function with study outcomes. In survival benefit analyses, transplantation status was modeled as a time-varying covariate. The cohort comprised 19,242 kidney transplantation candidates (median age, 51 years; 36% black race) receiving maintenance dialysis. Candidates in the lowest baseline Physical Functioning score quartile were more likely to be inactivated (adjusted HR vs highest quartile, 1.30; 95% CI, 1.21-1.39) and less likely to undergo transplantation (adjusted HR vs highest quartile, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.61-0.68). After transplantation, worse Physical Functioning score was associated with shorter 3-year survival (84% vs 92% for the lowest vs highest function quartiles). However, compared to dialysis, transplantation was associated with a statistically significant survival benefit by 9 months for patients in every function quartile. Functional status is self-reported. Even patients with low function appear to live longer with kidney transplantation versus dialysis. For wait-listed patients, global health measures such as functional status may be more useful in

  3. Considering Time-Scale Requirements for the Future

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-05-01

    geocentric reference frame with the SI second realized on the rotating geoid as the scale unit. It is a continuous atomic time scale that was...of dating in a specific reference system and is to be used as the time basis in the theory of motion in the system. In metrology it can be argued...the B8lycentric and Geocentric Celestial Reference Systems, two time scales, Barycentric Coor- dinate Time (TCB) and Geocentric Coordinate Time (TCG

  4. Survival Times of Meter-Sized Rock Boulders on the Surface of Airless Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-01-01

    This study considers the survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surfaces of several airless bodies. As the starting point, we employ estimates of the survival times of such boulders on the surface of the Moon by[1], then discuss the role of destruction due to day-night temperature cycling, consider the meteorite bombardment environment on the considered bodies in terms of projectile flux and velocities and finally estimate the survival times. Survival times of meter-sized rocks on lunar surface: The survival times of hand specimen-sized rocks exposed to the lunar surface environment were estimated based on experiments modeling the destruction of rocks by meteorite impacts, combined with measurements of the lunar surface meteorite flux, (e.g.,[2]). For estimations of the survival times of meter-sized lunar boulders, [1] suggested a different approach based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age. It was found that for a few million years, only a small fraction of the boulders ejected by cratering process are destroyed, for several tens of million years approx.50% are destroyed, and for 200-300 Ma, 90 to 99% are destroyed. Following [2] and other works, [1] considered that the rocks are mostly destroyed by meteorite impacts. Destruction of rocks by thermal-stress. However, high diurnal temperature variations on the surface of the Moon and other airless bodies imply that thermal stresses may also be a cause of surface rock destruction. Delbo et al. [3] interpreted the observed presence of fine debris on the surface of small asteroids as due to thermal surface cycling. They stated that because of the very low gravity on the surface of these bodies, ejecta from meteorite impacts should leave the body, so formation there of fine debris has to be due to thermal cycling. Based on experiments on heating-cooling of cm-scale pieces of ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites and theoretical modeling of

  5. Preoperative Nutritional Risk Index to predict postoperative survival time in primary liver cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bo, Yacong; Yao, Mingjie; Zhang, Ling; Bekalo, Wolde; Lu, Weiquan; Lu, Quanjun

    2015-01-01

    We designed this study to determine the predictive value of Nutritional Risk Index (NRI) for postoperative survival time of patients who had undergone hepatectomy for primary liver cancer. The 620 patients who underwent hepatectomy for primary liver cancer (PLC) in the Department of Hepatobiliary Surgery, Cancer Hospital of Henan Province, Zhengzhou, China from December 1, 2008 to December 1, 2012 were followed up. A nutritional risk index (NRI) was used to screen the patients with malnutrition (NRI100) patients had longer postoperative survival time compared with malnourished patients. NRI values>100 was sig-nificantly associated with longer postoperative survival time. Cox proportional hazards model showed that NRI was an independent predictor of postoperative survival time and that NRI varied inversely with the risk of death. The patients with NRI values>100 survived longer than those with NRI values

  6. Surviving in a metastable de Sitter space-time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kashyap, Sitender Pratap; Mondal, Swapnamay [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Sen, Ashoke [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); School of Physics, Korea Institute for Advanced Study,Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Verma, Mritunjay [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); International Centre for Theoretical Sciences,Malleshwaram, Bengaluru 560 012 (India)

    2015-09-21

    In a metastable de Sitter space any object has a finite life expectancy beyond which it undergoes vacuum decay. However, by spreading into different parts of the universe which will fall out of causal contact of each other in future, a civilization can increase its collective life expectancy, defined as the average time after which the last settlement disappears due to vacuum decay. We study in detail the collective life expectancy of two comoving objects in de Sitter space as a function of the initial separation, the horizon radius and the vacuum decay rate. We find that even with a modest initial separation, the collective life expectancy can reach a value close to the maximum possible value of 1.5 times that of the individual object if the decay rate is less than 1% of the expansion rate. Our analysis can be generalized to any number of objects, general trajectories not necessarily at rest in the comoving coordinates and general FRW space-time. As part of our analysis we find that in the current state of the universe dominated by matter and cosmological constant, the vacuum decay rate is increasing as a function of time due to accelerated expansion of the volume of the past light cone. Present decay rate is about 3.7 times larger than the average decay rate in the past and the final decay rate in the cosmological constant dominated epoch will be about 56 times larger than the average decay rate in the past. This considerably weakens the lower bound on the half-life of our universe based on its current age.

  7. Improving lung cancer survival: Time to move on

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    M.E. Heuvers (Marlies)

    2013-01-01

    markdownabstract__Abstract__ In 1761, lung cancer was first described as a distinct disease based on autopsies by Giovanni Morgagni. In 1810, Gaspard Laurent Bayle described lung cancer in more detail in his book entitled Recherches sur la phthisie pulmonaire. At that time it was an extremely

  8. Local Observability of Systems on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zbigniew Bartosiewicz

    2013-01-01

    unified way using the language of real analytic geometry, ideals of germs of analytic functions, and their real radicals. It is shown that some properties related to observability are preserved under various discretizations of continuous-time systems.

  9. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  10. Time scales separation for dynamo action

    OpenAIRE

    Dormy, Emmanuel; Gerard-Varet, David

    2008-01-01

    International audience; The study of dynamo action in astrophysical objects classically involves two timescales: the slow diffusive one and the fast advective one. We investigate the possibility of field amplification on an intermediate timescale associated with time dependent modulations of the flow. We consider a simple steady configuration for which dynamo action is not realised. We study the effect of time dependent perturbations of the flow. We show that {some} vanishing {low frequency} ...

  11. Assessment of lead-time bias in estimates of relative survival for breast cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Andersson, Therese M-L; Rutherford, Mark J; Humphreys, Keith

    2017-02-01

    Relative survival ratios (RSRs) can be useful for evaluating the impact of changes in cancer care on the prognosis of cancer patients or for comparing the prognosis for different subgroups of patients, but their use is problematic for cancer sites where screening has been introduced due to the potential of lead-time bias. Lead-time is survival time that is added to a patient's survival time because of an earlier diagnosis irrespective of a possibly postponed time of death. In the presence of screening it is difficult to disentangle how much of an observed improvement in survival is real and how much is due to lead-time bias. Even so, RSRs are often presented for breast cancer, a site where screening has led to early diagnosis, with the assumption that the lead-time bias is small. We describe a simulation-based framework for studying the lead-time bias due to mammography screening on RSRs of breast cancer based on a natural history model developed in a Swedish setting. We have performed simulations, using this framework, under different assumptions for screening sensitivity and breast cancer survival with the aim of estimating the lead-time bias. Screening every second year among ages 40-75 was introduced assuming that screening had no effect on survival, except for lead-time bias. Relative survival was estimated both with and without screening to enable quantification of the lead-time bias. Scenarios with low, moderate and high breast cancer survival, and low, moderate and high screening sensitivity were simulated, and the lead-time bias assessed in all scenarios. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Detecting separate time scales in genetic expression data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Orlando, David A; Brady, Siobhan M; Fink, Thomas M A; Benfey, Philip N; Ahnert, Sebastian E

    2010-06-16

    Biological processes occur on a vast range of time scales, and many of them occur concurrently. As a result, system-wide measurements of gene expression have the potential to capture many of these processes simultaneously. The challenge however, is to separate these processes and time scales in the data. In many cases the number of processes and their time scales is unknown. This issue is particularly relevant to developmental biologists, who are interested in processes such as growth, segmentation and differentiation, which can all take place simultaneously, but on different time scales. We introduce a flexible and statistically rigorous method for detecting different time scales in time-series gene expression data, by identifying expression patterns that are temporally shifted between replicate datasets. We apply our approach to a Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell-cycle dataset and an Arabidopsis thaliana root developmental dataset. In both datasets our method successfully detects processes operating on several different time scales. Furthermore we show that many of these time scales can be associated with particular biological functions. The spatiotemporal modules identified by our method suggest the presence of multiple biological processes, acting at distinct time scales in both the Arabidopsis root and yeast. Using similar large-scale expression datasets, the identification of biological processes acting at multiple time scales in many organisms is now possible.

  13. Detecting separate time scales in genetic expression data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fink Thomas MA

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Biological processes occur on a vast range of time scales, and many of them occur concurrently. As a result, system-wide measurements of gene expression have the potential to capture many of these processes simultaneously. The challenge however, is to separate these processes and time scales in the data. In many cases the number of processes and their time scales is unknown. This issue is particularly relevant to developmental biologists, who are interested in processes such as growth, segmentation and differentiation, which can all take place simultaneously, but on different time scales. Results We introduce a flexible and statistically rigorous method for detecting different time scales in time-series gene expression data, by identifying expression patterns that are temporally shifted between replicate datasets. We apply our approach to a Saccharomyces cerevisiae cell-cycle dataset and an Arabidopsis thaliana root developmental dataset. In both datasets our method successfully detects processes operating on several different time scales. Furthermore we show that many of these time scales can be associated with particular biological functions. Conclusions The spatiotemporal modules identified by our method suggest the presence of multiple biological processes, acting at distinct time scales in both the Arabidopsis root and yeast. Using similar large-scale expression datasets, the identification of biological processes acting at multiple time scales in many organisms is now possible.

  14. Long-time data storage: relevant time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwenspoek, Michael Curt

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic processes relevant for long-time storage of information about human kind are discussed, ranging from biological and geological processes to the lifecycle of stars and the expansion of the universe. Major results are that life will end ultimately and the remaining time that the earth is

  15. Survival and leaching of Tetracycline resistant bacteria and fecal indicators from manure in field scale experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, Tina; Amin, Mostofa; Lægdsmand, Mette

    The spreading of manure on agricultural land is an economic and practical solution for improving soil quality; however, animal manure frequently contains zoonotic pathogenic bacteria, such as certain Eschericia coli, Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. The present experiment was conducted...... as a large multidisciplinary project. Pig manure with a natural content of Tetracycline resistant bacteria and fecal indicator organisms was followed in soil columns and a field scale experiment. In the field experiment pig manure was injected into agricultural soil. The distribution and survival of natural...... occurring indicator bacteria around a manure slurry slit in the soil was followed. During a period of two months, sections of soils with different distance to the manure string were assayed to obtain information on survival and spread of bacteriophage, faecal indicators (Enterococci, Bacterioides, E. coli...

  16. Multimode time-dependent gyrotron equations for different time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dumbrajs, O.; Kalis, H.

    2017-09-01

    Development of gyrotrons requires careful understanding of different regimes of gyrotron oscillations. For a long time, the gyrotron theory was developed assuming that the transit time of electrons through the interaction space is much shorter than the cavity fill time. Correspondingly, it was assumed that during this transit time, the amplitude of microwave oscillations remains constant. However, there are situations when this assumption is not fulfilled, or is marginally fulfilled. In such cases, a different mathematical formalism has to be used. The present paper generalizes the new formalism to the multi mode case. The particular example considered indicates that in some cases the results obtained by means of the old and the new formalism differ significantly.

  17. Nuclear disassembly time scales using space time correlations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand, D.; Colin, J.; Lecolley, J.F.; Meslin, C.; Aboufirassi, M.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R. [Caen Univ., 14 (France). Lab. de Physique Corpusculaire; Bilwes, B.; Cosmo, F. [Strasbourg-1 Univ., 67 (France); Galin, J. [Grand Accelerateur National d`Ions Lourds (GANIL), 14 - Caen (France); and others

    1996-09-01

    The lifetime, {tau}, with respect to multifragmentation of highly excited nuclei is deduced from the analysis of strongly damped Pb+Au collisions at 29 MeV/u. The method is based on the study of space-time correlations induced by `proximity` effects between fragments emitted by the two primary products of the reaction and gives the time between the re-separation of the two primary products and the subsequent multifragment decay of one partner. (author). 2 refs.

  18. Bridging the Time and Length Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortiz, Michael

    1997-08-01

    The field of nanomechanics clearly exemplifies many of the challenges commonly encountered in micromechanics. For instance, one of the main difficulties inherent to nanomechanics is the need to consider multiple length and temporal scales straddling the grey zone between atomistics and continuum behavior. A case in point is nanoindentation. While much of the material under the indentor can be idealized as a continuum to a good approximation---making it grossly inefficient to carry out direct atomistic simulations in such regions---the plasticity which ensues during the early stages of indentation is carried by a small number of discrete dislocations. Recent experimental observations of nanoindentation in Fe-3wt%Si single crystals by Gerberich et al. (1985) reveal that, when an indentor with a tip radius of 66 nm is driven to depths of 6 to 26 nm, roughly 15-70 dislocations can be impugned as the primary carriers of irreversible deformation. Evidently, such low dislocation numbers defy effective treatment by continuum theories, and demand an explicit consideration of the individual dislocations. From the standpoint of modeling, these issues pose competing resolution demands---and point to the need for---models that can effect a seamless transition from regions that are well described as continua to those requiring an explicit treatment of the lattice degrees of freedom. A second point as concerns the development of models is the desirability of ensuring that the constitutive description of the material is faithful to the underlying atomistics. Direct atomistic simulation, e. g., by molecular dynamics, trivially satisfies this requirement. There, each and every lattice degree of freedom is explicitly accounted for, and the deformation of the crystal follows directly from the atomic interactions. However, the trend toward simulating ever larger systems (with the present record somewhere in the neighborhood of 10^9 atoms) leaves us faced with a daunting bookkeeping

  19. Radiographic response to locoregional therapy in hepatocellular carcinoma predicts patient survival times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Memon, Khairuddin; Kulik, Laura; Lewandowski, Robert J; Wang, Edward; Riaz, Ahsun; Ryu, Robert K; Sato, Kent T; Marshall, Karen; Gupta, Ramona; Nikolaidis, Paul; Miller, Frank H; Yaghmai, Vahid; Senthilnathan, Seanthan; Baker, Talia; Gates, Vanessa L; Abecassis, Michael; Benson, Al B; Mulcahy, Mary F; Omary, Reed A; Salem, Riad

    2011-08-01

    It is not clear whether survival times of patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) are associated with their response to therapy. We analyzed the association between tumor response and survival times of patients with HCC who were treated with locoregional therapies (LRTs) (chemoembolization and radioembolization). Patients received LRTs over a 9-year period (n = 463). Patients with metastases, portal venous thrombosis, or who had received transplants were excluded; 159 patients with Child-Pugh B7 or lower were analyzed. Response (based on European Association for the Study of the Liver [EASL] and World Health Organization [WHO] criteria) was associated with survival times using the landmark, risk-of-death, and Mantel-Byar methodologies. In a subanalysis, survival times of responders were compared with those of patients with stable disease and progressive disease. Based on 6-month data, in landmark analysis, responders survived longer than nonresponders (based on EASL but not WHO criteria: P = .002 and .0694). The risk of death was also lower for responders (based on EASL but not WHO criteria: P = .0463 and .707). Landmark analysis of 12-month data showed that responders survived longer than nonresponders (P < .0001 and .004, based on EASL and WHO criteria, respectively). The risk of death was lower for responders (P = .0132 and .010, based on EASL and WHO criteria, respectively). By the Mantel-Byar method, responders had longer survival than nonresponders, based on EASL criteria (P < .0001; P = .596 with WHO criteria). In the subanalysis, responders lived longer than patients with stable disease or progressive disease. Radiographic response to LRTs predicts survival time. EASL criteria for response more consistently predicted survival times than WHO criteria. The goal of LRT should be to achieve a radiologic response, rather than to stabilize disease. Copyright © 2011 AGA Institute. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Survival times for canine intranasal sarcomas treated with radiation therapy: 86 cases (1996-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sones, Evan; Smith, Annette; Schleis, Stephanie; Brawner, William; Almond, Gregory; Taylor, Kathryn; Haney, Siobhan; Wypij, Jackie; Keyerleber, Michele; Arthur, Jennifer; Hamilton, Terrance; Lawrence, Jessica; Gieger, Tracy; Sellon, Rance; Wright, Zack

    2013-01-01

    Sarcomas comprise approximately one-third of canine intranasal tumors, however few veterinary studies have described survival times of dogs with histologic subtypes of sarcomas separately from other intranasal tumors. One objective of this study was to describe median survival times for dogs treated with radiation therapy for intranasal sarcomas. A second objective was to compare survival times for dogs treated with three radiation therapy protocols: daily-fractionated radiation therapy; Monday, Wednesday, and Friday fractionated radiation therapy; and palliative radiation therapy. Medical records were retrospectively reviewed for dogs that had been treated with radiation therapy for confirmed intranasal sarcoma. A total of 86 dogs met inclusion criteria. Overall median survival time for included dogs was 444 days. Median survival time for dogs with chondrosarcoma (n = 42) was 463 days, fibrosarcoma (n = 12) 379 days, osteosarcoma (n = 6) 624 days, and undifferentiated sarcoma (n = 22) 344 days. Dogs treated with daily-fractionated radiation therapy protocols; Monday, Wednesday and Friday fractionated radiation therapy protocols; and palliative radiation therapy protocols had median survival times of 641, 347, and 305 days, respectively. A significant difference in survival time was found for dogs receiving curative intent radiation therapy vs. palliative radiation therapy (P = 0.032). A significant difference in survival time was also found for dogs receiving daily-fractionated radiation therapy vs. Monday, Wednesday and Friday fractionated radiation therapy (P = 0.0134). Findings from this study support the use of curative intent radiation therapy for dogs with intranasal sarcoma. Future prospective, randomized trials are needed for confirmation of treatment benefits. © 2012 Veterinary Radiology & Ultrasound.

  1. Interplay between multiple length and time scales in complex ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    length and time scales is required in order to understand and predict structure and dynamics in such com- ... nanoseconds. Tailoring the functional properties of materials on a macroscopic scale (1 m/1 s) involves averaging over scales smaller by several orders of ..... tures in the phase diagram of water, including new.

  2. Bounds of Certain Dynamic Inequalities on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak B. Pachpatte

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study explicit bounds of certain dynamic integral inequalities on time scales. These estimates give the bounds on unknown functions which can be used in studying the qualitative aspects of certain dynamic equations. Using these inequalities we prove the uniqueness of some partial integro-differential equations on time scales.

  3. Evolution of equilibrium pickering emulsions: a matter of time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kraft, D.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/304824291; Luigjes, B.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/31412330X; de Folter, J.W.J.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/325787662; Philipse, A.P.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/073532894; Kegel, W.K.|info:eu-repo/dai/nl/113729464

    2010-01-01

    A new class of equilibrium solid-stabilized oil-in-water emulsions harbors a competition of two processes on disparate time scales that affect the equilibrium droplet size in opposing ways. The aim of this work is to elucidate the molecular origins of these two time scales and demonstrate their

  4. List and liver transplant survival according to waiting time in patients with hepatocellular carcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvalaggio, P R; Felga, G; Axelrod, D A; Della Guardia, B; Almeida, M D; Rezende, M B

    2015-03-01

    The time that patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) can safely remain on the waiting list for liver transplantation (LT) is unknown. We investigated whether waiting time on the list impacts transplant survival of HCC candidates and transplant recipients. This is a single-center retrospective study of 283 adults with HCC. Patients were divided in groups according to waiting-list time. The main endpoint was survival. The median waiting time for LT was 4.9 months. The dropout rates at 3-, 6-, and 12-months were 6.4%, 12.4%, and 17.7%, respectively. Mortality on the list was 4.8%, but varied depending of the time on the list. Patients who waited less than 3-months had an inferior overall survival when compared to the other groups (p = 0.027). Prolonged time on the list significantly reduced mortality in this analysis (p = 0.02, HR = 0.28). Model for End Stage Liver Disease (MELD) score at transplantation did also independently impact overall survival (p = 0.03, HR = 1.06). MELD was the only factor that independently impacted posttransplant survival (p = 0.048, HR = 1.05). We conclude that waiting time had no relation with posttransplant survival. It is beneficial to prolong the waiting list time for HCC candidates without having a negative impact in posttransplant survival. © Copyright 2015 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  5. Effects of microcosm scaling and food resources on growth and survival of larval Culex pipiens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paradise Christopher J

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We used a simple experimental design to test for the effects of microcosm scaling on the growth and survival of the mosquito, Culex pipiens. Microcosm and mesocosm studies are commonly used in ecology, and there is often an assumption that scaling doesn't affect experimental outcomes. The assumption is implicit in the design; choice of mesocosms may be arbitrary or based on convenience or cost. We tested the hypothesis that scale would influence larvae due to depth and surface area effects. Larvae were predicted to perform poorly in microcosms that were both deep and had small openings, due to buildup of waste products, less exchange with the environment, and increased competition. To determine if the choice of scale affected responses to other factors, we independently varied leaf litter quantity, whose effects on mosquitoes are well known. Results We found adverse effects of both a lower wall surface area and lower horizontal surface area, but microcosm scale interacted with resources such that C. pipiens is affected by habitat size only when food resources are scarce. At low resource levels mosquitoes were fewer, but larger, in microcosms with smaller horizontal surface area and greater depth than in microcosms with greater horizontal surface area and shallower depth. Microcosms with more vertical surface area/volume often produced larger mosquitoes; more food may have been available since mosquitoes browse on walls and other substrates for food. Conclusions The interaction between habitat size and food abundance is consequential to aquatic animals, and choice of scale in experiments may affect results. Varying surface area and depth causes the scale effect, with small horizontal surface area and large depth decreasing matter exchange with the surrounding environment. In addition, fewer resources leads to less leaf surface area, and the effects of varying surface area will be greater under conditions of limiting resources

  6. Tobit regression for modeling mean survival time using data subject to multiple sources of censoring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2018-01-22

    Mean survival time is often of inherent interest in medical and epidemiologic studies. In the presence of censoring and when covariate effects are of interest, Cox regression is the strong default, but mostly due to convenience and familiarity. When survival times are uncensored, covariate effects can be estimated as differences in mean survival through linear regression. Tobit regression can validly be performed through maximum likelihood when the censoring times are fixed (ie, known for each subject, even in cases where the outcome is observed). However, Tobit regression is generally inapplicable when the response is subject to random right censoring. We propose Tobit regression methods based on weighted maximum likelihood which are applicable to survival times subject to both fixed and random censoring times. Under the proposed approach, known right censoring is handled naturally through the Tobit model, with inverse probability of censoring weighting used to overcome random censoring. Essentially, the re-weighting data are intended to represent those that would have been observed in the absence of random censoring. We develop methods for estimating the Tobit regression parameter, then the population mean survival time. A closed form large-sample variance estimator is proposed for the regression parameter estimator, with a semiparametric bootstrap standard error estimator derived for the population mean. The proposed methods are easily implementable using standard software. Finite-sample properties are assessed through simulation. The methods are applied to a large cohort of patients wait-listed for kidney transplantation. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Correlation between Pulmonary Function Indexes and Survival Time 
in Patients with Advanced Lung Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hui GE

    2013-07-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective To those patients with advanced lung cancer, the ultimate objective is to improve the curative effect and quality of life, lung function indexes are an important factor. We investigate the change of lung function and the relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods Lung function was detected in 59 cases with lung cancer and 63 normal controls. The relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time was analyzed. Results There was significant difference in ventilation function and diffusing capacity between in lung cancer group and control group. Vital capacity (VC, forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1, forced vital capacity (FVC, peak expiratory flow (PEF, peak expiratory flow% (PEF%, maximal ventilatory volume (MVV were positively correlated with survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer (r=0.29, 0.28, 0.28, 0.27, 0.26, 0.28, P<0.05, residual volume/total lung capacity was negatively correlated with survival time (r=-0.31, P<0.05. Conclusion The lung function decreases in the patients with lung cancer. VC, FEV1, FVC, PEF, PEF%, MVV, residual volume/total lung capacity were correlated with survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. The pulmonary function indexs were important marker of prognosis in patients with lung cancer.

  8. A Systematic Review of Testicle Survival Time After a Torsion Event.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mellick, Larry Bruce; Sinex, James E; Gibson, Robert W; Mears, Kim

    2017-09-25

    The time window for possible salvage and survival of a torsed testicle is commonly thought to be 6 to 8 hours. However, survival of torsed testicles with or without subsequent atrophy is known to occur outside that critical time window. In this article, we performed a systematic review of the English literature to provide a more accurate understanding of reported time frames of testicle survival after a torsion event. The primary research question was to determine the relationship between time to treatment and the rate of survival for testicles of male patients presenting with testicular torsion (TT). A systematic review of the literature was performed and structured according to PRISMA guidelines. An exhaustive library search was performed after search strategies were developed for multiple databases that included PubMed, Cochrane library, Ovid MEDLINE, Web of Science, and ProQuest Theses and Dissertations. Two different searches were developed including "testicular torsion" and TT with the search term "time" added. Articles specifically reporting TT case series, testicle outcomes, and time to surgical or manual treatment were selected for review. In addition to and preceding the systematic review, an exhaustive manual search of the literature was also performed by the authors. As a result of these searches, a total of 30 studies with data considered relevant to the research question were included. The information extracted from the articles was tabulated with regard to time intervals to treatment and survival outcome. The systematic review process and protocol are reported in this article. A total of 30 studies were found that reported case series of TT patients and their outcomes as well as time to treatment reported in useful time frames. From these reports, a total of 2116 TT patients were culled, and their outcomes and time to treatment are reported. Because the time to treatment was reported variously in different case series, the 3 most common formats for

  9. Effect of first cannulation time and dialysis machine blood flows on survival of arteriovenous fistulas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilmink, Teun; Powers, Sarah; Hollingworth, Lee; Stevenson, Tamasin

    2017-10-16

    To study the effect of cannulation time on arteriovenous fistula (AVF) survival. Analysis of two prospective databases of access operations and dialysis sessions from 12 January 2002 through 4 January 2015 with follow-up until 4 January 2016. First cannulation time (FCT), defined from operation to first cannulation, was categorized as machine blood flow rate (BFR) for the first 29 dialysis sessions on AVF was analysed. Altogether, 1167 AVF with functional dialysis use were analysed: 667 (57%) radial cephalic AVF, 383 (33%) brachiocephalic AVF and 117 (10%) brachiobasilic AVF. The 631 (54%) AVF created in on-dialysis patients were analysed separately from 536 (46%) AVF created in pre-dialysis patients. AVF survival was similar between cannulation categories for both pre-dialysis patients (P = 0.19) and on-dialysis patients (P = 0.83). Early cannulation was associated with similar AVF survival in both pre-dialysis patients (P = 0.82) and on-dialysis patients (P = 0.17). Six consecutive successful cannulations from the start were associated with improved AVF survival (P = 0.0002). A below-median BFR at the start of dialysis was associated with better AVF survival (P machine BFR in the first week of dialysis are associated with decreased AVF survival.

  10. Extreme reaction times determine fluctuation scaling in human color vision

    Science.gov (United States)

    Medina, José M.; Díaz, José A.

    2016-11-01

    In modern mental chronometry, human reaction time defines the time elapsed from stimulus presentation until a response occurs and represents a reference paradigm for investigating stochastic latency mechanisms in color vision. Here we examine the statistical properties of extreme reaction times and whether they support fluctuation scaling in the skewness-kurtosis plane. Reaction times were measured for visual stimuli across the cardinal directions of the color space. For all subjects, the results show that very large reaction times deviate from the right tail of reaction time distributions suggesting the existence of dragon-kings events. The results also indicate that extreme reaction times are correlated and shape fluctuation scaling over a wide range of stimulus conditions. The scaling exponent was higher for achromatic than isoluminant stimuli, suggesting distinct generative mechanisms. Our findings open a new perspective for studying failure modes in sensory-motor communications and in complex networks.

  11. The time dependent association of adrenaline administration and survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewy, Gordon A; Bobrow, Bentley J; Chikani, Vatsal; Sanders, Arthur B; Otto, Charles W; Spaite, Daniel W; Kern, Karl B

    2015-11-01

    Recommended for decades, the therapeutic value of adrenaline (epinephrine) in the resuscitation of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is controversial. To investigate the possible time-dependent outcomes associated with adrenaline administration by Emergency Medical Services personnel (EMS). A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from a near statewide cardiac resuscitation database between 1 January 2005 and 30 November 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of the time interval between EMS dispatch and the initial dose of adrenaline on survival. The primary endpoints were survival to hospital discharge and favourable neurologic outcome. Data from 3469 patients with witnessed OHCA were analyzed. Their mean age was 66.3 years and 69% were male. An initially shockable rhythm was present in 41.8% of patients. Based on a multivariable logistic regression model with initial adrenaline administration time interval (AATI) from EMS dispatch as the covariate, survival was greatest when adrenaline was administered very early but decreased rapidly with increasing (AATI); odds ratio 0.94 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.92-0.97). The AATI had no significant effect on good neurological outcome (OR=0.96, 95% CI=0.90-1.02). In patients with OHCA, survival to hospital discharge was greater in those treated early with adrenaline by EMS especially in the subset of patients with a shockable rhythm. However survival rapidly decreased with increasing adrenaline administration time intervals (AATI). Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  12. Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Thomas R.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Joanne Saher,; Theresa Childers,

    2015-01-01

    The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geographically distinct subpopulations. Nest survival is known to be a primary driver of demography of Greater Sage-Grouse (C. urophasianus), but no unbiased estimates of daily nest survival rates (hereafter nest survival) exist for Gunnison Sage-Grouse or published studies identifying factors that influence nest survival. We estimated nest survival of Gunnison Sage-Grouse for the western portion of Colorado's Gunnison Basin subpopulation, and assessed the effects and relative importance of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics on nest survival. Our top performing model was one that allowed variation in nest survival among areas, suggesting a larger landscape-area effect. Overall nest success during a 38-day nesting period (egg-laying plus incubation) was 50% (daily survival rate; SE  =  0.982 [0.003]), which is higher than previous estimates for Gunnison Sage-Grouse and generally higher than published for the closely related Greater Sage-Grouse. We did not find strong evidence that local-scale habitat variables were better predictors of nest survival than landscape-scale predictors, nor did we find strong evidence that any of the habitat variables we measured were good predictors of nest survival. Nest success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in the western portion of the Gunnison Basin was higher than previously believed.

  13. Cell assemblies at multiple time scales with arbitrary lag constellations

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Russo, Eleonora; Durstewitz, Daniel

    2017-01-01

    .... Yet progress in this area is hampered by the lack of statistical tools that would enable to extract assemblies with arbitrary constellations of time lags, and at multiple temporal scales, partly due...

  14. Intermediate time scaling in classical continuous-spin models

    CERN Document Server

    Oh, S K; Chung, J S

    1999-01-01

    The time-dependent total spin correlation functions of the two- and the three-dimensional classical XY models seem to have a very narrow first dynamic scaling interval and, after this interval, a much broader anomalous second dynamic scaling interval appears. In this paper, this intriguing feature found in our previous work is re-examined. By introducing a phenomenological characteristic time for this intermediate time interval, the second dynamic scaling behavior can be explained. Moreover, the dynamic critical exponent found from this novel characteristic time is found to be identical to that found from the usual dynamic scaling theory developed in the wave vector and frequency domain. For continuous spin models, in which the spin variable related to a long-range order parameter is not a constant of motion, our method yielded the dynamic critical exponent with less computational efforts.

  15. AFSC/ABL: Ugashik sockeye salmon scale time series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A time series of scale samples (1956 b?? 2002) collected from adult sockeye salmon returning to Ugashik River were retrieved from the Alaska Department of Fish and...

  16. AFSC/ABL: Naknek sockeye salmon scale time series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A time series of scale samples (1956 2002) collected from adult sockeye salmon returning to Naknek River were retrieved from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game....

  17. Examining the Influence of Campus Climate on Students' Time to Degree: A Multilevel Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ji; Castellanos, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Utilizing longitudinal data of 3477 students from 28 institutions, we examine the effects of structural diversity and quality of interracial relation on students' persistence towards graduation within six years. We utilize multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to account for the longitudinal persistence patterns as well as the nested…

  18. The effect of time until surgical intervention on survival in dogs with secondary septic peritonitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bush, Maxwell; Carno, Margaret A; St Germaine, Lindsay; Hoffmann, Daniel E

    2016-12-01

    This retrospective study examined the effect of time to intervention on outcome in cases of dogs with secondary septic peritonitis, and also searched for other potential prognostic factors. The medical records of 55 dogs were reviewed. No association was found between outcome and the time from hospital admission to surgical source control. However, several other factors were found to influence survival, including: age, needing vasopressors, lactate, pre-operative packed cell volume, serum alkaline phosphatase, serum total bilirubin, and post-operative serum albumin. These values were then used to create accurate pre- and post-operative survival prediction models.

  19. Gronwall-OuIang-Type Integral Inequalities on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bohner Martin

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available We present several Gronwall-OuIang-type integral inequalities on time scales. Firstly, an OuIang inequality on time scales is discussed. Then we extend the Gronwall-type inequalities to multiple integrals. Some special cases of our results contain continuous Gronwall-type inequalities and their discrete analogues. Several examples are included to illustrate our results at the end.

  20. Graft pathology at the time of harvest: impact on long-term survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shi-Min Yuan

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Objective: This study aims to present the graft pathology at the time of harvest and its impact on long-term survival. Methods: The remnants of the bypass grafts from 66 consecutive patients with coronary artery disease receiving a coronary artery bypass grafting were investigated pathologically, and pertinent predictive risk factors and survival were analyzed. Results: Medial degenerative changes with or without intimal proliferation were present in 36.8%, 37.8% and 35.6% of left internal mammary artery (IMA, radial artery and saphenous vein grafts. There were 2 (3.0% hospital deaths and 9 (14.1% late deaths. Multinomial logistic regression revealed left IMA pathological changes, dyslipidemia, history of percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty/stent deployment and Y-graft were significant predictive risk factors negatively influencing the patients’ long-term survival. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis revealed that the long-term survival of patients with left IMA pathological changes were significantly reduced compared with those without (74.1% vs. 91.4%, P=0.002; whereas no differences were noted in long-term survivals between patients with and without pathological changes of the radial arterial or saphenous vein grafts. Conclusion: Pathological changes may be seen in the bypass graft at the time of harvest. The subtle ultrastructural modifications and the expressions of vascular tone regulators might be responsible for late graft patency. The pathological changes of the left IMA at the time of harvest rather than those of the radial artery or saphenous vein graft affect significantly longterm survival. Non-traumatic maneuver of left IMA harvest, well-controlled dyslipidemia and avoidance of using composite grafts can be helpful in maintaining the architecture of the grafts.

  1. Galaxy merger time-scales in the Illustris Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas, Areli; Rodriguez-Gomez, Vicente; Hernquist, Lars E.; Wellons, Sarah; Moreno, Jorge

    2017-01-01

    In this project we are investigate merger time-scales, define as the time delays from dark matter halo viral crossing to galaxy-galaxy coalescence. Our project uses merger history trees drawn from the Illustris Simulation, a cosmological hydrodynamic run that follows the formation and evolution of galaxies across cosmic time. Preliminary results indicate that merger time-scales are not sensitive to stellar mass or mass ratio, in stark contrast to what has been found earlier with cosmological dark-matter-only simulations. Work towards understanding the source of this disagreement is currently in progress.

  2. Multiple time scales in multi-state models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iacobelli, Simona; Carstensen, Bendix

    2013-12-30

    In multi-state models, it has been the tradition to model all transition intensities on one time scale, usually the time since entry into the study ('clock-forward' approach). The effect of time since an intermediate event has been accommodated either by changing the time scale to time since entry to the new state ('clock-back' approach) or by including the time at entry to the new state as a covariate. In this paper, we argue that the choice of time scale for the various transitions in a multi-state model should be dealt with as an empirical question, as also the question of whether a single time scale is sufficient. We illustrate that these questions are best addressed by using parametric models for the transition rates, as opposed to the traditional Cox-model-based approaches. Specific advantages are that dependence of failure rates on multiple time scales can be made explicit and described in informative graphical displays. Using a single common time scale for all transitions greatly facilitates computations of probabilities of being in a particular state at a given time, because the machinery from the theory of Markov chains can be applied. However, a realistic model for transition rates is preferable, especially when the focus is not on prediction of final outcomes from start but on the analysis of instantaneous risk or on dynamic prediction. We illustrate the various approaches using a data set from stem cell transplant in leukemia and provide supplementary online material in R. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  3. Two Artificial Neural Networks for Modeling Discrete Survival Time of Censored Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taysseer Sharaf

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Artificial neural network (ANN theory is emerging as an alternative to conventional statistical methods in modeling nonlinear functions. The popular Cox proportional hazard model falls short in modeling survival data with nonlinear behaviors. ANN is a good alternative to the Cox PH as the proportionality of the hazard assumption and model relaxations are not required. In addition, ANN possesses a powerful capability of handling complex nonlinear relations within the risk factors associated with survival time. In this study, we present a comprehensive comparison of two different approaches of utilizing ANN in modeling smooth conditional hazard probability function. We use real melanoma cancer data to illustrate the usefulness of the proposed ANN methods. We report some significant results in comparing the survival time of male and female melanoma patients.

  4. An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

    2017-09-01

    An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

  5. Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

    2016-07-22

    Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

  6. Random-effects regression analysis of correlated grouped-time survival data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hedeker, D; Siddiqui, O; Hu, F B

    2000-04-01

    Random-effects regression modelling is proposed for analysis of correlated grouped-time survival data. Two analysis approaches are considered. The first treats survival time as an ordinal outcome, which is either right-censored or not. The second approach treats survival time as a set of dichotomous indicators of whether the event occurred for time periods up to the period of the event or censor. For either approach both proportional hazards and proportional odds versions of the random-effects model are developed, while partial proportional hazards and odds generalizations are described for the latter approach. For estimation, a full-information maximum marginal likelihood solution is implemented using numerical quadrature to integrate over the distribution of multiple random effects. The quadrature solution allows some flexibility in the choice of distributions for the random effects; both normal and rectangular distributions are considered in this article. An analysis of a dataset where students are clustered within schools is used to illustrate features of random-effects analysis of clustered grouped-time survival data.

  7. Exponentials and Laplace transforms on nonuniform time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ortigueira, Manuel D.; Torres, Delfim F. M.; Trujillo, Juan J.

    2016-10-01

    We formulate a coherent approach to signals and systems theory on time scales. The two derivatives from the time-scale calculus are used, i.e., nabla (forward) and delta (backward), and the corresponding eigenfunctions, the so-called nabla and delta exponentials, computed. With these exponentials, two generalised discrete-time Laplace transforms are deduced and their properties studied. These transforms are compatible with the standard Laplace and Z transforms. They are used to study discrete-time linear systems defined by difference equations. These equations mimic the usual continuous-time equations that are uniformly approximated when the sampling interval becomes small. Impulse response and transfer function notions are introduced. This implies a unified mathematical framework that allows us to approximate the classic continuous-time case when the sampling rate is high or to obtain the standard discrete-time case, based on difference equations, when the time grid becomes uniform.

  8. Racial Disparities in Clinical Presentation and Survival Times Among Young-Onset Colorectal Adenocarcinoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arshad, Hafiz Muhammad Sharjeel; Kabir, Christopher; Tetangco, Eula; Shah, Natahsa; Raddawi, Hareth

    2017-09-01

    Recently published data indicate increasing incidence of colorectal adenocarcinoma (CRC) in young-onset (racial disparities in presentation and survival times among non-Hispanic Blacks (NHB) and Hispanics compared with non-Hispanic Whites (NHW). A retrospective single-center cohort study was conducted from 2004 through 2014 using 96 patient medical charts with a diagnosis of young-onset CRC. Age, gender, primary site, and histological stage at the time of diagnosis were assessed for survival probabilities by racial group over a minimum follow-up period of 5 years. Among subjects with CRC diagnosis before 50 years of age, the majority of subjects were between 40 and 50 years, with CRC presentation occurring among this age group for 51 (79.7%) of NHW, 18 (81.8%) of NHB, and 5 (50.0%) of Hispanics. The majority of all patients presented with advanced stages of CRC (31.3% with stage III and 27.1% with stage IV). NHB exhibited statistically significantly worse survival compared to NHW (adjusted hazard ratio for death = 2.09; 95% confidence interval 1.14-3.84; P = 0.02). A possible trend of worse survival was identified for Hispanics compared to NHW, but this group was low in numbers and results were not statistically significant. Disparities between racial groups among young-onset CRC cases were identified in overall survival and reflect growing concern in rising incidence and differentiated care management.

  9. Effect of large-scale social marketing of insecticide-treated nets on child survival in rural Tanzania.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schellenberg, J R; Abdulla, S; Nathan, R; Mukasa, O; Marchant, T J; Kikumbih, N; Mushi, A K; Mponda, H; Minja, H; Mshinda, H; Tanner, M; Lengeler, C

    2001-04-21

    Insecticide-treated nets have proven efficacy as a malaria-control tool in Africa. However, the transition from efficacy to effectiveness cannot be taken for granted. We assessed coverage and the effect on child survival of a large-scale social marketing programme for insecticide-treated nets in two rural districts of southern Tanzania with high perennial malaria transmission. Socially marketed insecticide-treated nets were introduced step-wise over a 2-year period from May, 1997, in a population of 480000 people. Cross-sectional coverage surveys were done at baseline and after 1, 2, and 3 years. A demographic surveillance system (DSS) was set up in an area of 60000 people to record population, births, and deaths. Within the DSS area, the effect of insecticide-treated nets on child survival was assessed by a case-control approach. Cases were deaths in children aged between 1 month and 4 years. Four controls for each case were chosen from the DSS database. Use of insecticide-treated nets and potential confounding factors were assessed by questionnaire. Individual effectiveness estimates from the case-control study were combined with coverage to estimate community effectiveness. Insecticide-treated net coverage of infants in the DSS area rose from less than 10% at baseline to more than 50% 3 years later. Insecticide-treated nets were associated with a 27% increase in survival in children aged 1 month to 4 years (95% CI 3-45). Coverage in such children was higher in areas with longer access to the programme. The modest average coverage achieved by 1999 in the two districts (18% in children younger than 5 years) suggests that insecticide-treated nets prevented 1 in 20 child deaths at that time. Social marketing of insecticide-treated nets has great potential for effective malaria control in rural African settings.

  10. Looking inward: The impact of operative time on graft survival after liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, David D; Li, Jun; Wang, Guihua; Croome, Kristopher P; Burns, Justin M; Perry, Dana K; Nguyen, Justin H; Hopp, Wallace J; Taner, C Burcin

    2017-10-01

    Operative time often has been cited as an important factor for postoperative outcomes. Despite this belief, most efforts to improve liver transplant outcomes have largely focused on only patient and donor factors, and little attention has been paid on operative time. The primary objective of this project was to determine the impact of operative time on graft survival after liver transplant. A retrospective review of 2,877 consecutive liver transplants performed at a single institution was studied. Data regarding recipient, donor, and operative characteristics, including detailed granular operative times were collected prospectively and retrospectively reviewed. Using an instrument variable approach, Cox multivariate modeling was performed to assess the impact of operative time without the confounding of known and unknown variables. Of the 2,396 patients who met the criteria for review, the most important factors determining liver transplant graft survival included recipient history of Hepatitis C (hazard ratio 1.45, P = .02), donor age (hazard ratio 1.23, P = .03), use of liver graft from donation after cardiac death donor (hazard ratio 1.50, P operative time (hazard ratio 1.26, P = .01). In detailed analysis of stages of the liver transplant operation, the time interval from incision to anhepatic phase was associated with graft survival (hazard ratio 1.33; P = .02). Using a novel instrument variable approach, we demonstrate that operative time (in particular, the time interval from incision to anhepatic time) has a significant impact on graft survival. It also seems that some of this efficiency is under the influence of the transplant surgeon. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Effect of bifidobacteria implantation on the survival time of whole-body irradiated mice

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yokokura, T.; Onoue, M.; Mutai, M. (Yakult Institute for Microbiological Research)

    1980-01-01

    Letahl dose (2 KR) of gamma-ray was irradiated on the whole bodies of mice. Survival time after irradiation was significantly longer in mice with administration of both Bifidobacterium breve YIT 4008 and transgalactosyl oligosaccharide than in mice with administration of either of the two or nothing.

  12. It's Deja Vu All over Again: Using Multiple-Spell Discrete-Time Survival Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willett, John B.; Singer, Judith D.

    1995-01-01

    The multiple-spell discrete-time survival analysis method is introduced and illustrated using longitudinal data on exit from and reentry into the teaching profession. The method is applicable to many educational problems involving the sequential occurrence of disparate events or episodes. (SLD)

  13. Recidivism and Survival Time: Racial Disparity among Jail Ex-Inmates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jung, Hyunzee; Spjeldnes, Solveig; Yamatani, Hide

    2010-01-01

    Incarcerated men, most of whom are recidivists, are disproportionately black. Much literature about prison ex-inmates reports on this disparity, yet little is known about racial disparity in recidivism rates among jail ex-inmates. This study examined recidivism rates and survival time (period from release date to rearrest) among male ex-inmates…

  14. Palliative sedation in advanced cancer patients: Does it shorten survival time? - A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Barathi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. Objectives: This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Materials and Methods: Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Results: Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. Conclusion: This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  15. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2007-01-01

    of stroke and remained so during the first month suggesting a female survival advantage. Throughout the second month the rate reversed in favour of men suggesting that women in that period are paying a 'toll' for their initial survival advantage. Hereafter, the rate steadily decreased, and after 4 months...

  16. SNO+ Liquid Scintillator Characterization: Timing, Quenching, and Energy Scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    O' Sullivan, E., E-mail: eosullivan@owl.phy.queensu.ca [Queen' s University, Department of Physics, Stirling Hall, Kingston, Ontario (Canada); Wan Chan Tseung, H.S., E-mail: hwan@uw.edu [Center for Experimental Nuclear Physics and Astrophysics, and Department of Physics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Tolich, N. [Center for Experimental Nuclear Physics and Astrophysics, and Department of Physics, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); O' Keeffe, H.M.; Chen, M. [Queen' s University, Department of Physics, Stirling Hall, Kingston, Ontario (Canada)

    2012-08-15

    This contribution describes laboratory measurements designed to investigate the optical properties of linear alkybenzene (LAB). Presented here is the measurement of the scintillation light timing profiles due to alpha and beta-particle excitation, the calculation of alpha/beta discrimination capability based on these timing distributions, and the investigation of electron energy scale.

  17. Cognitive componets of speech at different time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Ling; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2007-01-01

    Cognitive component analysis (COCA) is defined as unsupervised grouping of data leading to a group structure well aligned with that resulting from human cognitive activity. We focus here on speech at different time scales looking for possible hidden ‘cognitive structure’. Statistical regularities...... have earlier been revealed at multiple time scales corresponding to: phoneme, gender, height and speaker identity. We here show that the same simple unsupervised learning algorithm can detect these cues. Our basic features are 25-dimensional short time Mel-frequency weighted cepstral coefficients...

  18. Survival probability and first-passage-time statistics of a Wiener process driven by an exponential time-dependent drift

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urdapilleta, Eugenio

    2011-02-01

    The survival probability and the first-passage-time statistics are important quantities in different fields. The Wiener process is the simplest stochastic process with continuous variables, and important results can be explicitly found from it. The presence of a constant drift does not modify its simplicity; however, when the process has a time-dependent component the analysis becomes difficult. In this work we analyze the statistical properties of the Wiener process with an absorbing boundary, under the effect of an exponential time-dependent drift. Based on the backward Fokker-Planck formalism we set the time-inhomogeneous equation and conditions that rule the diffusion of the corresponding survival probability. We propose as the solution an expansion series in terms of the intensity of the exponential drift, resulting in a set of recurrence equations. We explicitly solve the expansion up to second order and comment on higher-order solutions. The first-passage-time density function arises naturally from the survival probability and preserves the proposed expansion. Explicit results, related properties, and limit behaviors are analyzed and extensively compared to numerical simulations.

  19. Survival probability and first-passage-time statistics of a Wiener process driven by an exponential time-dependent drift.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urdapilleta, Eugenio

    2011-02-01

    The survival probability and the first-passage-time statistics are important quantities in different fields. The Wiener process is the simplest stochastic process with continuous variables, and important results can be explicitly found from it. The presence of a constant drift does not modify its simplicity; however, when the process has a time-dependent component the analysis becomes difficult. In this work we analyze the statistical properties of the Wiener process with an absorbing boundary, under the effect of an exponential time-dependent drift. Based on the backward Fokker-Planck formalism we set the time-inhomogeneous equation and conditions that rule the diffusion of the corresponding survival probability. We propose as the solution an expansion series in terms of the intensity of the exponential drift, resulting in a set of recurrence equations. We explicitly solve the expansion up to second order and comment on higher-order solutions. The first-passage-time density function arises naturally from the survival probability and preserves the proposed expansion. Explicit results, related properties, and limit behaviors are analyzed and extensively compared to numerical simulations.

  20. The survival time of chocolates on hospital wards: covert observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajendragadkar, Parag R; Moualed, Daniel J; Nicolson, Phillip L R; Adjei, Felicia D; Cakebread, Holly E; Duehmke, Rudolf M; Martin, Claire A

    2013-12-14

    To quantify the consumption of chocolates in a hospital ward environment. Multicentre, prospective, covert observational study. Four wards at three hospitals (where the authors worked) within the United Kingdom. Boxes of Quality Street (Nestlé) and Roses (Cadbury) on the ward and anyone eating these chocolates. Observers covertly placed two 350 g boxes of Quality Street and Roses chocolates on each ward (eight boxes were used in the study containing a total of 258 individual chocolates). These boxes were kept under continuous covert surveillance, with the time recorded when each chocolate was eaten. Median survival time of a chocolate. 191 out of 258 (74%) chocolates were observed being eaten. The mean total observation period was 254 minutes (95% confidence interval 179 to 329). The median survival time of a chocolate was 51 minutes (39 to 63). The model of chocolate consumption was non-linear, with an initial rapid rate of consumption that slowed with time. An exponential decay model best fitted these findings (model R(2)=0.844, Pchocolates to be eaten) of 99 minutes. The mean time taken to open a box of chocolates from first appearance on the ward was 12 minutes (95% confidence interval 0 to 24). Quality Street chocolates survived longer than Roses chocolates (hazard ratio for survival of Roses v Quality Street 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.93, P=0.014). The highest percentages of chocolates were consumed by healthcare assistants (28%) and nurses (28%), followed by doctors (15%). From our observational study, chocolate survival in a hospital ward was relatively short, and was modelled well by an exponential decay model. Roses chocolates were preferentially consumed to Quality Street chocolates in a ward setting. Chocolates were consumed primarily by healthcare assistants and nurses, followed by doctors. Further practical studies are needed.

  1. Thermodynamics constrains allometric scaling of optimal development time in insects.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael E Dillon

    Full Text Available Development time is a critical life-history trait that has profound effects on organism fitness and on population growth rates. For ectotherms, development time is strongly influenced by temperature and is predicted to scale with body mass to the quarter power based on 1 the ontogenetic growth model of the metabolic theory of ecology which describes a bioenergetic balance between tissue maintenance and growth given the scaling relationship between metabolism and body size, and 2 numerous studies, primarily of vertebrate endotherms, that largely support this prediction. However, few studies have investigated the allometry of development time among invertebrates, including insects. Abundant data on development of diverse insects provides an ideal opportunity to better understand the scaling of development time in this ecologically and economically important group. Insects develop more quickly at warmer temperatures until reaching a minimum development time at some optimal temperature, after which development slows. We evaluated the allometry of insect development time by compiling estimates of minimum development time and optimal developmental temperature for 361 insect species from 16 orders with body mass varying over nearly 6 orders of magnitude. Allometric scaling exponents varied with the statistical approach: standardized major axis regression supported the predicted quarter-power scaling relationship, but ordinary and phylogenetic generalized least squares did not. Regardless of the statistical approach, body size alone explained less than 28% of the variation in development time. Models that also included optimal temperature explained over 50% of the variation in development time. Warm-adapted insects developed more quickly, regardless of body size, supporting the "hotter is better" hypothesis that posits that ectotherms have a limited ability to evolutionarily compensate for the depressing effects of low temperatures on rates of

  2. Thermodynamics constrains allometric scaling of optimal development time in insects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dillon, Michael E; Frazier, Melanie R

    2013-01-01

    Development time is a critical life-history trait that has profound effects on organism fitness and on population growth rates. For ectotherms, development time is strongly influenced by temperature and is predicted to scale with body mass to the quarter power based on 1) the ontogenetic growth model of the metabolic theory of ecology which describes a bioenergetic balance between tissue maintenance and growth given the scaling relationship between metabolism and body size, and 2) numerous studies, primarily of vertebrate endotherms, that largely support this prediction. However, few studies have investigated the allometry of development time among invertebrates, including insects. Abundant data on development of diverse insects provides an ideal opportunity to better understand the scaling of development time in this ecologically and economically important group. Insects develop more quickly at warmer temperatures until reaching a minimum development time at some optimal temperature, after which development slows. We evaluated the allometry of insect development time by compiling estimates of minimum development time and optimal developmental temperature for 361 insect species from 16 orders with body mass varying over nearly 6 orders of magnitude. Allometric scaling exponents varied with the statistical approach: standardized major axis regression supported the predicted quarter-power scaling relationship, but ordinary and phylogenetic generalized least squares did not. Regardless of the statistical approach, body size alone explained less than 28% of the variation in development time. Models that also included optimal temperature explained over 50% of the variation in development time. Warm-adapted insects developed more quickly, regardless of body size, supporting the "hotter is better" hypothesis that posits that ectotherms have a limited ability to evolutionarily compensate for the depressing effects of low temperatures on rates of biological processes. The

  3. Cancer patient survival in Estonia 1995-2009: time trends and data quality.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Innos, K; Baburin, A; Aareleid, T

    2014-06-01

    Survival from most cancers in Estonia has been consistently below European average. The objective of this study was to examine recent survival trends in Estonia and to quantify the effect on survival estimates of the temporary disruption of the Estonian Cancer Registry (ECR) practices in 2001-2007 when death certificates could not be used for case ascertainment. ECR data on all adult cases of 16 common cancers diagnosed in Estonia during 1995-2008 and followed up for vital status until 2009 were used to estimate relative survival ratios (RSR). We used cohort analysis for patients diagnosed in 1995-1999 and 2000-2004; and period hybrid approach to obtain the most recent estimates (2005-2009). We compared five-year RSRs calculated from data sets with and without death certificate initiated (DCI) cases. A total of 64328 cancer cases were included in survival analysis. Compared with 1995-1999, five-year age-standardized RSR increased 20 percent units for prostate cancer, reaching 76% in 2005-2009. A rise of 10 percent units or more was also seen for non-Hodgkin lymphoma (five-year RSR 51% in 2005-2009), and cancers of rectum (49%), breast (73%) and ovary (37%). The effect of including/excluding DCI cases from survival analysis was small except for lung and pancreatic cancers. Relative survival continued to increase in Estonia during the first decade of the 21st century, although for many cancers, a gap between Estonia and more affluent countries still exists. Cancer control efforts should aim at the reduction of risk factors amenable to primary prevention, but also at the improvement of early diagnosis and ensuring timely and optimal care to all cancer patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  4. The Association between Phase Angle of Bioelectrical Impedance Analysis and Survival Time in Advanced Cancer Patients: Preliminary Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, So Yeon; Lee, Yong Joo; Yang, Jung-Hwa; Kim, Chul-Min; Choi, Whan-Seok

    2014-09-01

    A frequent manifestation of advanced cancer patients is malnutrition, which is correlated with poor prognosis and high mortality. Bioelectrical impedance analysis (BIA) is an easy-to-use and non-invasive technique to evaluate changes in body composition and nutritional status. We investigated BIA-derived phase angle as a prognostic indicator for survival in advanced cancer patients. Twenty-eight patients treated at the hospice center of Seoul St. Mary's Hospital underwent BIA measurements from January, 2013 to May, 2013. We also evaluated palliative prognostic index (PPI) and palliative performance scale to compare with the prognostic value of phase angle. Cox's proportional hazard models were constructed to evaluate the prognostic effect of phase angle. The Kaplan Meier method was used to calculate survival. Using univariate Cox analysis, phase angle (hazard ratio [HR], 0.61/per degree increase; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.42 to 0.89; P = 0.010), PPI (HR, 1.21; 95% CI, 1.00 to 1.47; P = 0.048) were found to be significantly associated with survival. Adjusting age, PPI, body mass index, phase angle significantly showed association with survival in multivariate analysis (HR, 0.64/per degree increase; 95% CI, 0.42 to 0.95; P = 0.028). Survival time of patients with phase angle ≥ 4.4° was longer than patients with phase angle < 4.4° (log rank, 6.208; P-value = 0.013). Our data suggest BIA-derived phase angle may serve as an independent prognostic indicator in advanced cancer patients.

  5. The effect of time until surgical intervention on survival in dogs with secondary septic peritonitis

    OpenAIRE

    Bush, Maxwell; Carno, Margaret A.; St. Germaine, Lindsay; Hoffmann, Daniel E.

    2016-01-01

    This retrospective study examined the effect of time to intervention on outcome in cases of dogs with secondary septic peritonitis, and also searched for other potential prognostic factors. The medical records of 55 dogs were reviewed. No association was found between outcome and the time from hospital admission to surgical source control. However, several other factors were found to influence survival, including: age, needing vasopressors, lactate, pre-operative packed cell volume, serum alk...

  6. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garzon, Benjamin (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)), email: benjamin.garzon@ntnu.no; Emblem, Kyrre E. (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Dept. of Radiology, MGH-HST AA Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston (United States)); Mouridsen, Kim (Center of Functionally Integrative Neuroscience, Aarhus Univ., Aarhus (Denmark)); Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K. (Dept. of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Bjoernerud, Atle (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Haaberg, Asta K. (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Dept. of Medical Imaging, St Olav' s Hospital, Trondheim (Norway)); Kvinnsland, Yngve (NordicImagingLab, Bergen (Norway))

    2011-11-15

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  7. Inferring synaptic structure in presence of neural interaction time scales.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cristiano Capone

    Full Text Available Biological networks display a variety of activity patterns reflecting a web of interactions that is complex both in space and time. Yet inference methods have mainly focused on reconstructing, from the network's activity, the spatial structure, by assuming equilibrium conditions or, more recently, a probabilistic dynamics with a single arbitrary time-step. Here we show that, under this latter assumption, the inference procedure fails to reconstruct the synaptic matrix of a network of integrate-and-fire neurons when the chosen time scale of interaction does not closely match the synaptic delay or when no single time scale for the interaction can be identified; such failure, moreover, exposes a distinctive bias of the inference method that can lead to infer as inhibitory the excitatory synapses with interaction time scales longer than the model's time-step. We therefore introduce a new two-step method, that first infers through cross-correlation profiles the delay-structure of the network and then reconstructs the synaptic matrix, and successfully test it on networks with different topologies and in different activity regimes. Although step one is able to accurately recover the delay-structure of the network, thus getting rid of any a priori guess about the time scales of the interaction, the inference method introduces nonetheless an arbitrary time scale, the time-bin dt used to binarize the spike trains. We therefore analytically and numerically study how the choice of dt affects the inference in our network model, finding that the relationship between the inferred couplings and the real synaptic efficacies, albeit being quadratic in both cases, depends critically on dt for the excitatory synapses only, whilst being basically independent of it for the inhibitory ones.

  8. Time-dependent scaling patterns in high frequency financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava, Noemi; Di Matteo, Tiziana; Aste, Tomaso

    2016-10-01

    We measure the influence of different time-scales on the intraday dynamics of financial markets. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying measures of complexity: 1) an amplitude scaling exponent and 2) an entropy-like measure. We apply these measures to intraday, 30-second sampled prices of various stock market indices. Our results reveal intraday trends where different time-horizons contribute with variable relative amplitudes over the course of the trading day. Our findings indicate that the time series we analysed have a non-stationary multifractal nature with predominantly persistent behaviour at the middle of the trading session and anti-persistent behaviour at the opening and at the closing of the session. We demonstrate that these patterns are statistically significant, robust, reproducible and characteristic of each stock market. We argue that any modelling, analytics or trading strategy must take into account these non-stationary intraday scaling patterns.

  9. Evaluation of scaling invariance embedded in short time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Pan

    Full Text Available Scaling invariance of time series has been making great contributions in diverse research fields. But how to evaluate scaling exponent from a real-world series is still an open problem. Finite length of time series may induce unacceptable fluctuation and bias to statistical quantities and consequent invalidation of currently used standard methods. In this paper a new concept called correlation-dependent balanced estimation of diffusion entropy is developed to evaluate scale-invariance in very short time series with length ~10(2. Calculations with specified Hurst exponent values of 0.2,0.3,...,0.9 show that by using the standard central moving average de-trending procedure this method can evaluate the scaling exponents for short time series with ignorable bias (≤0.03 and sharp confidential interval (standard deviation ≤0.05. Considering the stride series from ten volunteers along an approximate oval path of a specified length, we observe that though the averages and deviations of scaling exponents are close, their evolutionary behaviors display rich patterns. It has potential use in analyzing physiological signals, detecting early warning signals, and so on. As an emphasis, the our core contribution is that by means of the proposed method one can estimate precisely shannon entropy from limited records.

  10. Decoupling Shoreline Behavior Over Variable Time and Space Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapke, C. J.; Plant, N. G.; Henderson, R.; Schwab, W. C.; Nelson, T. R.

    2016-12-01

    A combination of small-scale sediment transport processes and large-scale geologic, oceanographic, and morphologic processes drives shoreline change on time scales ranging from single storm events to decades. The relative importance of storm processes versus geological control on event response and long-term evolution of barrier islands is largely unknown but is important for understanding decadal-scale evolution Here, we investigate the primary controls on shoreline response along Fire Island, NY, a 50-km long barrier island, on timescales that resolve storms and decadal variations over a period of 80 yrs. An empirical orthogonal function (EOF) analysis is applied to a time series of shoreline positions to identify coherent patterns of shoreline variability that can be correlated to oceanographic or geologic framework parameters to help identify the controlling short-term or long-term processes. The analysis shows that storm response and recovery dominates the shoreline behavior on the largest spatial scales in the form of alternating episodes of shoreline retreat and advance that have a length scale of 1 km. The shoreline response to and recovery from Hurricane Sandy is included in this EOF analysis and indicates that this historic storm is not notable or distinguishable from several other large storms of the prior decade. This suggests that Fire Island is historically, and continues to be, resilient to severe storms. A secondary mode of the EOF analysis supports that the framework geology of the barrier island system, represented by known variations in inner shelf bathymetry, sediment availability, beach-shoreface morphology, and long-term rates of shoreline change, controls multi-decadal shoreline evolution. The geologic processes that control the long-term morphodynamics result in the ends of the island responding in opposite phase to the central portion. A third mode reveals an intermediate-scale pattern that persists over both long and short-term time scales

  11. Memory on multiple time-scales in an Abelian sandpile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sokolov, Andrey; Melatos, Andrew; Kieu, Tien; Webster, Rachel

    2015-06-01

    We report results of a numerical analysis of the memory effects in two-dimensional Abelian sandpiles. It is found that a sandpile forgets its instantaneous configuration in two distinct stages: a fast stage and a slow stage, whose durations roughly scale as N and N2 respectively, where N is the linear size of the sandpile. We confirm the presence of the longer time-scale by an independent diagnostic based on analysing emission probabilities of a hidden Markov model applied to a time-averaged sequence of avalanche sizes. The application of hidden Markov modelling to the output of sandpiles is novel. It discriminates effectively between a sandpile time series and a shuffled control time series with the same time-averaged event statistics and hence deserves further development as a pattern-recognition tool for Abelian sandpiles.

  12. Entrainment and Survival Time of the Llsvps: Effects of Flow in the Thermochemical Pile Interior

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mulyukova, E.; Steinberger, B. M.; Dabrowski, M.; Sobolev, S. V.

    2013-12-01

    , it increases the amount of heat flow into the overlying ambient material, and thus leads to more vigorous convection in the ambient layer. This change in ambient flow has a feedback on the dense layer through both thermal and mechanical coupling. An additional effect of convection in the interior of the dense layer is the entrainment of the ambient material into that layer, and thus more efficient mechanical mixing between the two materials. This results in the decrease of the effective buoyancy ratio over time. Finally, the stresses acting along the chemical interface due to flow within the dense layer have a direct effect on the geometry of the layer, including its topography. We present the results of numerical simulations that illustrate the convective flow in the interior of the thermochemical layer or piles. We discuss in detail the effects of this flow on the entrainment and survival time of the dense material. As a possible outlook, these results, in addition to illuminating some of the complexity of deep Earth dynamics, can predict possible structures that may develop in the interior of the large scale heterogeneities, such as the LLSVPs. These predictions can then be tested against the results of seismological studies, and thus serve as an additional constraint on models of the deep mantle.

  13. Association of the Timing of Pregnancy With Survival in Women With Breast Cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Javaid; Amir, Eitan; Rochon, Paula A; Giannakeas, Vasily; Sun, Ping; Narod, Steven A

    2017-05-01

    Increasing numbers of women experience pregnancy around the time of, or after, a diagnosis of breast cancer. Understanding the effect of pregnancy on survival in women with breast cancer will help in the counseling and treatment of these women. To compare the overall survival of women diagnosed with breast cancer during pregnancy or in the postpartum period with that of women who had breast cancer but did not become pregnant. This population-based, retrospective cohort study linked health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, comprising 7553 women aged 20 to 45 years at the time of diagnosis with invasive breast cancer, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2014. Any pregnancy in the period from 5 years before, until 5 years after, the index date of the diagnosis of breast cancer. Women were classified into the following 4 exposure groups: no pregnancy (the referent), pregnancy before breast cancer, pregnancy-associated breast cancer, and pregnancy following breast cancer. Five-year actuarial survival rates for all exposure groups, age-adjusted and multivariable hazard ratios [HRs] of pregnancy for overall survival for all exposure groups, and time-dependent hazard ratios for women with pregnancy following breast cancer. Among the 7553 women in the study (mean age at diagnosis, 39.1 years; median, 40 years; range, 20-44 years) the 5-year actuarial survival rate was 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5%-88.4%) for women with no pregnancy, 85.3% (95% CI, 82.8%-87.8%) for women with pregnancy before breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.85-1.27; P = .73), and 82.1% (95% CI, 78.3%-85.9%) for women with pregnancy-associated breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91-1.53; P = .20). The 5-year actuarial survival rate was 96.7% (95% CI, 94.1%-99.3%) for women who had pregnancy 6 months or more after diagnosis of breast cancer, vs 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5%-88.4%) for women with no pregnancy) (age-adjusted HR, 0.22; 95% CI, 0.10-0.49; P

  14. Evaluation of serum biochemical marker concentrations and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Equilino, Mirjam; Théodoloz, Vincent; Gorgas, Daniela; Doherr, Marcus G; Heilmann, Romy M; Suchodolski, Jan S; Steiner, Jörg M; Burgener Dvm, Iwan A

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate serum concentrations of biochemical markers and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy (PLE). Prospective study. 29 dogs with PLE and 18 dogs with food-responsive diarrhea (FRD). Data regarding serum concentrations of various biochemical markers at the initial evaluation were available for 18 of the 29 dogs with PLE and compared with findings for dogs with FRD. Correlations between biochemical marker concentrations and survival time (interval between time of initial evaluation and death or euthanasia) for dogs with PLE were evaluated. Serum C-reactive protein concentration was high in 13 of 18 dogs with PLE and in 2 of 18 dogs with FRD. Serum concentration of canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity was high in 3 dogs with PLE but within the reference interval in all dogs with FRD. Serum α1-proteinase inhibitor concentration was less than the lower reference limit in 9 dogs with PLE and 1 dog with FRD. Compared with findings in dogs with FRD, values of those 3 variables in dogs with PLE were significantly different. Serum calprotectin (measured by radioimmunoassay and ELISA) and S100A12 concentrations were high but did not differ significantly between groups. Seventeen of the 29 dogs with PLE were euthanized owing to this disease; median survival time was 67 days (range, 2 to 2,551 days). Serum C-reactive protein, canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity, and α1-proteinase inhibitor concentrations differed significantly between dogs with PLE and FRD. Most initial biomarker concentrations were not predictive of survival time in dogs with PLE.

  15. Does prehospital time affect survival of major trauma patients where there is no prehospital care?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dharap, S B; Kamath, S; Kumar, V

    2017-01-01

    Survival after major trauma is considered to be time dependent. Efficient prehospital care with rapid transport is the norm in developed countries, which is not available in many lower middle and low-income countries. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of prehospital time and primary treatment given on survival of major trauma patients in a setting without prehospital care. This prospective observational study was carried out in a university hospital in Mumbai, from January to December 2014. The hospital has a trauma service but no organized prehospital care or defined interhospital transfer protocols. All patients with life- and/or limb-threatening injuries were included in the study. Injury time and arrival time were noted and the interval was defined as "prehospital time" for the directly arriving patients and as "time to tertiary care" for those transferred. Primary outcome measure was in-hospital death (or discharge). Of 1181 patients, 352 were admitted directly from the trauma scene and 829 were transferred from other hospitals. In-hospital mortality was associated with age, mechanism and mode of injury, shock, Glasgow Coma Score prehospital time nor with time to tertiary care. Transferred patients had a significantly higher mortality (odds ratio = 1.869, 95% confidence interval = 1.233-2.561, P = 0.005) despite fewer patients with severe injury. Two hundred and ninety-four (35%) of these needed airway intervention while 108 (13%) needed chest tube insertion on arrival to the trauma unit suggesting inadequate care at primary facility. Mortality is not associated with prehospital time but with transfers from primary care; probably due to deficient care. To improve survival after major trauma, enhancement of resources for resuscitation and capacity building of on-duty doctors in primary centers should be a priority in countries with limited resources.

  16. An Ultralow Leakage Synaptic Scaling Homeostatic Plasticity Circuit With Configurable Time Scales up to 100 ks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiao, Ning; Bartolozzi, Chiara; Indiveri, Giacomo

    2017-12-01

    Homeostatic plasticity is a stabilizing mechanism commonly observed in real neural systems that allows neurons to maintain their activity around a functional operating point. This phenomenon can be used in neuromorphic systems to compensate for slowly changing conditions or chronic shifts in the system configuration. However, to avoid interference with other adaptation or learning processes active in the neuromorphic system, it is important that the homeostatic plasticity mechanism operates on time scales that are much longer than conventional synaptic plasticity ones. In this paper we present an ultralow leakage circuit, integrated into an automatic gain control scheme, that can implement the synaptic scaling homeostatic process over extremely long time scales. Synaptic scaling consists in globally scaling the synaptic weights of all synapses impinging onto a neuron maintaining their relative differences, to preserve the effects of learning. The scheme we propose controls the global gain of analog log-domain synapse circuits to keep the neuron's average firing rate constant around a set operating point, over extremely long time scales. To validate the proposed scheme, we implemented the ultralow leakage synaptic scaling homeostatic plasticity circuit in a standard 0.18 m complementary metal-oxide-semiconductor process, and integrated it in an array of dynamic synapses connected to an adaptive integrate and fire neuron. The circuit occupies a silicon area of 84  m 22 m and consumes approximately 10.8 nW with a 1.8 V supply voltage. We present experimental results from the homeostatic circuit and demonstrate how it can be configured to exhibit time scales of up to 100 ks, thanks to a controllable leakage current that can be scaled down to 0.45 aA (2.8 electrons per second).

  17. Interplay between multiple length and time scales in complex ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    tiplicity of length and time scales is required in order to understand and predict structure and dynamics in such complex systems. .... spatial resolution, and is ideally suited to explore dynamics of protein folding, protein-DNA interac- .... the significant topographic features of the poten- tial energy landscape, such as number, ...

  18. Wind power impacts and electricity storage - a time scale perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Meibom, Peter

    2012-01-01

    technologies – batteries, flow batteries, compressed air energy storage, electrolysis combined with fuel cells, and electric vehicles – are moreover categorised with respect to the time scales at which they are suited to support wind power integration. While all of these technologies are assessed suitable...

  19. Time scales of radiation damage decay in four optical materials

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grupp, Frank; Geis, Norbert; Katterloher, Reinhard; Bender, Ralf

    2017-09-01

    In the framework of the qualification campaigns for the near infrared spectrometer and photometer instrument (NISP) on board the ESA/EUCLID satellite six optical materials where characterized with respect to their transmission losses after a radiation dose representing the mission exposure to high energy particles in the outer Lagrange point L2. Data was taken between 500 and 2000nm on six 25mm thick coated probes. Thickness and coating being representative for the NISP flight configuration. With this paper we present results owing up the radiation damage shown in [1]. We where able to follow up the decay of the radiation damage over almost one year under ambient conditions. This allows us to distinguish between curing effects that happen on different time-scales. As for some of the materials no radiation damage and thus no curing was detected, all materials that showed significant radiation damage in the measured passband showed two clearly distinguished time scales of curing. Up to 70% of the transmission losses cured on half decay time scales of several tens of days, while the rest of the damage cures on time scales of years.

  20. Single-molecule binding experiments on long time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elenko, Mark P.; Szostak, Jack W.; van Oijen, Antoine M.

    We describe an approach for performing single-molecule binding experiments on time scales from hours to days, allowing for the observation of slower kinetics than have been previously investigated by single-molecule techniques. Total internal reflection fluorescence microscopy is used to image the

  1. Exponential stability of dynamic equations on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Raffoul Youssef N

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the exponential stability of the zero solution to a system of dynamic equations on time scales. We do this by defining appropriate Lyapunov-type functions and then formulate certain inequalities on these functions. Several examples are given.

  2. Survival times with and without tube feeding in patients with dementia or psychiatric diseases in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayama, Keiko; Hirayama, Keisuke; Hirao, Akihiko; Kondo, Keiko; Hayashi, Hideki; Kadota, Koichi; Asaba, Hiroyuki; Ishizu, Hideki; Nakata, Kenji; Kurisu, Kairi; Oshima, Etsuko; Yokota, Osamu; Yamada, Norihito; Terada, Seishi

    2017-11-01

    It is widely supposed that there has been no evidence of increased survival in patients with advanced dementia receiving enteral tube feeding. However, more than a few studies have reported no harmful outcome from tube feeding in dementia patients compared to in patients without dementia. This was a retrospective study. Nine psychiatric hospitals in Okayama Prefecture participated in this survey. All inpatients fulfilling the entry criteria were evaluated. All subjects suffered from difficulty with oral intake. Attending physicians thought that the patients could not live without long-term artificial nutrition. The physicians decided whether to make use of long-term artificial nutrition between January 2012 and December 2014. We evaluated 185 patients. Their mean age was 76.6 ± 11.4 years. Of all subjects, patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 78) formed the biggest group, schizophrenia patients (n = 44) the second, and those with vascular dementia (n = 30) the third. The median survival times were 711 days for patients with tube feeding and 61 days for patients without tube feeding. In a comparison different types of tube feeding, median survival times were 611 days for patients with a nasogastric tube and more than 1000 days for those with a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube. Patients with tube feeding survived longer than those without tube feeding, even among dementia patients. This study suggests that enteral nutrition for patients with dementia prolongs survival. Additionally, percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube feeding may be safer than nasogastric tube feeding among patients in psychiatric hospitals. © 2017 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

  3. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behjat-Al-Molook Ajami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration

  4. THEORETICAL REVIEW The Hippocampus, Time, and Memory Across Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Marc W.; Eichenbaum, Howard

    2014-01-01

    A wealth of experimental studies with animals have offered insights about how neural networks within the hippocampus support the temporal organization of memories. These studies have revealed the existence of “time cells” that encode moments in time, much as the well-known “place cells” map locations in space. Another line of work inspired by human behavioral studies suggests that episodic memories are mediated by a state of temporal context that changes gradually over long time scales, up to at least a few thousand seconds. In this view, the “mental time travel” hypothesized to support the experience of episodic memory corresponds to a “jump back in time” in which a previous state of temporal context is recovered. We suggest that these 2 sets of findings could be different facets of a representation of temporal history that maintains a record at the last few thousand seconds of experience. The ability to represent long time scales comes at the cost of discarding precise information about when a stimulus was experienced—this uncertainty becomes greater for events further in the past. We review recent computational work that describes a mechanism that could construct such a scale-invariant representation. Taken as a whole, this suggests the hippocampus plays its role in multiple aspects of cognition by representing events embedded in a general spatiotemporal context. The representation of internal time can be useful across nonhippocampal memory systems. PMID:23915126

  5. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time Versus Proportional Hazards Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lois A Gelfand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  6. Determination of the impact of melanoma surgical timing on survival using the National Cancer Database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conic, Ruzica Z; Cabrera, Claudia I; Khorana, Alok A; Gastman, Brian R

    2018-01-01

    The ideal timing for melanoma treatment, predominantly surgery, remains undetermined. Patient concern for receiving immediate treatment often exceeds surgeon or hospital availability, requiring establishment of a safe window for melanoma surgery. To assess the impact of time to definitive melanoma surgery on overall survival. Patients with stage I to III cutaneous melanoma and with available time to definitive surgery and overall survival were identified by using the National Cancer Database (N = 153,218). The t test and chi-square test were used to compare variables. Cox regression was used for multivariate analysis. In a multivariate analysis of patients in all stages who were treated between 90 and 119 days after biopsy (hazard ratio [HR], 1.09; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.01-1.18) and more than 119 days (HR, 1.12; 95% CI, 1.02-1.22) had a higher risk for mortality compared with those treated within 30 days of biopsy. In a subgroup analysis of stage I, higher mortality risk was found in patients treated within 30 to 59 days (HR, 1.05; 95% CI, 1.01-1.1), 60 to 89 days (HR, 1.16; 95% CI, 1.07-1.25), 90 to 119 days (HR, 1.29; 95% CI, 1.12-1.48), and more than 119 days after biopsy (HR, 1.41; 95% CI, 1.21-1.65). Surgical timing did not affect survival in stages II and III. Melanoma-specific survival was not available. Expeditious treatment of stage I melanoma is associated with improved outcomes. Copyright © 2017 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Correlation between Pulmonary Function Indexes and Survival Time 
in Patients with Advanced Lung Cancer

    OpenAIRE

    Ge, Hui; Jiang, Zhenghua; Huang, Qian; Muyun ZHU; Yang, Jie

    2013-01-01

    Background and objective To those patients with advanced lung cancer, the ultimate objective is to improve the curative effect and quality of life, lung function indexes are an important factor. We investigate the change of lung function and the relationship between pulmonary function indexs and survival time in patients with advanced lung cancer. Methods Lung function was detected in 59 cases with lung cancer and 63 normal controls. The relationship between pulmonary function indexs and surv...

  8. Tumor Cells Growth and Survival Time with the Ketogenic Diet in Animal Models: A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khodadadi, Soheila; Sobhani, Nafiseh; Mirshekar, Somaye; Ghiasvand, Reza; Pourmasoumi, Makan; Miraghajani, Maryam; Dehsoukhteh, Somayeh Shahraki

    2017-01-01

    Recently, interest in targeted cancer therapies via metabolic pathways has been renewed with the discovery that many tumors become dependent on glucose uptake during anaerobic glycolysis. Also the inability of ketone bodies metabolization due to various deficiencies in mitochondrial enzymes is the major metabolic changes discovered in malignant cells. Therefore, administration of a ketogenic diet (KD) which is based on high in fat and low in carbohydrates might inhibit tumor growth and provide a rationale for therapeutic strategies. So, we conducted this systematic review to assess the effects of KD on the tumor cells growth and survival time in animal studies. All databases were searched from inception to November 2015. We systematically searched the PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholars, Science Direct and Cochrane Library according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. To assess the quality of included studies we used SYRCLE's RoB tool. 268 articles were obtained from databases by primary search. Only 13 studies were eligible according to inclusion criteria. From included studies, 9 articles indicate that KD had a beneficial effect on tumor growth and survival time. Tumor types were included pancreatic, prostate, gastric, colon, brain, neuroblastoma and lung cancers. In conclusions, although studies in this field are rare and inconsistence, recent findings have demonstrated that KD can potentially inhibit the malignant cell growth and increase the survival time. Because of differences physiology between animals and humans, future studies in cancer patients treated with a KD are needed.

  9. Tumor cells growth and survival time with the ketogenic diet in animal models: A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soheila Khodadadi

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Recently, interest in targeted cancer therapies via metabolic pathways has been renewed with the discovery that many tumors become dependent on glucose uptake during anaerobic glycolysis. Also the inability of ketone bodies metabolization due to various deficiencies in mitochondrial enzymes is the major metabolic changes discovered in malignant cells. Therefore, administration of a ketogenic diet (KD which is based on high in fat and low in carbohydrates might inhibit tumor growth and provide a rationale for therapeutic strategies. So, we conducted this systematic review to assess the effects of KD on the tumor cells growth and survival time in animal studies. All databases were searched from inception to November 2015. We systematically searched the PubMed, Scopus, Google Scholars, Science Direct and Cochrane Library according to the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses statement. To assess the quality of included studies we used SYRCLE's RoB tool. 268 articles were obtained from databases by primary search. Only 13 studies were eligible according to inclusion criteria. From included studies, 9 articles indicate that KD had a beneficial effect on tumor growth and survival time. Tumor types were included pancreatic, prostate, gastric, colon, brain, neuroblastoma and lung cancers. In conclusions, although studies in this field are rare and inconsistence, recent findings have demonstrated that KD can potentially inhibit the malignant cell growth and increase the survival time. Because of differences physiology between animals and humans, future studies in cancer patients treated with a KD are needed.

  10. Anomalous multiphoton photoelectric effect in ultrashort time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kupersztych, J; Raynaud, M

    2005-09-30

    In a multiphoton photoelectric process, an electron needs to absorb a given number of photons to escape the surface of a metal. It is shown for the first time that this number is not a constant depending only on the characteristics of the metal and light, but varies with the interaction duration in ultrashort time scales. The phenomenon occurs when electromagnetic energy is transferred, via ultrafast excitation of electron collective modes, to conduction electrons in a duration less than the electron energy damping time. It manifests itself through a dramatic increase of electron production.

  11. Stability of perturbed dynamic system on time scales with initial time difference

    OpenAIRE

    Yakar, Coşkun; OĞUR, Bülent

    2015-01-01

    The behavior of solutions of a perturbed dynamic system with respect to an original unperturbed dynamic system, which have initial time difference, are investigated on arbitrary time scales. Notions of stability, asymptotic stability, and instability with initial time difference are introduced. Sufficient conditions of stability properties are given with the help of Lyapunov-like functions.

  12. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

    2017-12-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  13. Time scale of diffusion in molecular and cellular biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holcman, D.; Schuss, Z.

    2014-05-01

    Diffusion is the driver of critical biological processes in cellular and molecular biology. The diverse temporal scales of cellular function are determined by vastly diverse spatial scales in most biophysical processes. The latter are due, among others, to small binding sites inside or on the cell membrane or to narrow passages between large cellular compartments. The great disparity in scales is at the root of the difficulty in quantifying cell function from molecular dynamics and from simulations. The coarse-grained time scale of cellular function is determined from molecular diffusion by the mean first passage time of molecular Brownian motion to a small targets or through narrow passages. The narrow escape theory (NET) concerns this issue. The NET is ubiquitous in molecular and cellular biology and is manifested, among others, in chemical reactions, in the calculation of the effective diffusion coefficient of receptors diffusing on a neuronal cell membrane strewn with obstacles, in the quantification of the early steps of viral trafficking, in the regulation of diffusion between the mother and daughter cells during cell division, and many other cases. Brownian trajectories can represent the motion of a molecule, a protein, an ion in solution, a receptor in a cell or on its membrane, and many other biochemical processes. The small target can represent a binding site or an ionic channel, a hidden active site embedded in a complex protein structure, a receptor for a neurotransmitter on the membrane of a neuron, and so on. The mean time to attach to a receptor or activator determines diffusion fluxes that are key regulators of cell function. This review describes physical models of various subcellular microdomains, in which the NET coarse-grains the molecular scale to a higher cellular-level, thus clarifying the role of cell geometry in determining subcellular function.

  14. Time-Dependent Tree-Structured Survival Analysis with Unbiased Variable Selection through Permutation Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wallace, M. L.

    2014-01-01

    Incorporating time-dependent covariates into tree-structured survival analysis (TSSA) may result in more accurate prognostic models than if only baseline values are used. Available time-dependent TSSA methods exhaustively test every binary split on every covariate; however, this approach may result in selection bias towards covariates with more observed values. We present a method that uses unbiased significance levels from newly proposed permutation tests to select the time-dependent or baseline covariate with the strongest relationship with the survival outcome. The specific splitting value is identified using only the selected covariate. Simulation results show that the proposed time-dependent TSSA method produces tree models of equal or greater accuracy as compared to baseline TSSA models, even with high censoring rates and large within-subject variability in the time-dependent covariate. To illustrate, the proposed method is applied to data from a cohort of bipolar youth to identify subgroups at risk for self-injurious behavior. PMID:25043382

  15. Impact of Treatment Time on the Survival of Patients Suffering from Invasive Fungal Rhinosinusitis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patorn Piromchai

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Background Invasive fungal rhinosinusitis is an uncommon disease with high mortality rates. There is currently no consensus on the best treatment timing. We studied the impact of the treatment timing on the survival of patients experiencing invasive fungal rhinosinusitis. Methods We conducted a retrospective study of patients suffering from invasive fungal rhinosinusitis. The duration of symptoms, clinical presentations, clinical signs, diagnoses, treatments, and outcomes were collected. Results It was observed that more than 70% of the mortalities occurred within the subgroup of patients who exhibited symptoms of the disease within 14 days before admission. After adjusting for the confounders, the time taken to treat the patients was the most statistically significant predictor for mortality ( P = 0.045. We found no significant relationships between mortality and its significant covariates, which included the underlying diseases ( P = 0.91 or complications ( P = 0.55. Conclusions Our study demonstrates that the time taken to treat the patients is an important determinant for the survival of patients who are afflicted with invasive fungal rhinosinusitis. The appropriate treatments should be administered within 14 days from the time the symptoms begin to manifest.

  16. Impact of treatment time on the survival of patients suffering from invasive fungal rhinosinusitis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piromchai, Patorn; Thanaviratananich, Sanguansak

    2014-01-01

    Invasive fungal rhinosinusitis is an uncommon disease with high mortality rates. There is currently no consensus on the best treatment timing. We studied the impact of the treatment timing on the survival of patients experiencing invasive fungal rhinosinusitis. We conducted a retrospective study of patients suffering from invasive fungal rhinosinusitis. The duration of symptoms, clinical presentations, clinical signs, diagnoses, treatments, and outcomes were collected. It was observed that more than 70% of the mortalities occurred within the subgroup of patients who exhibited symptoms of the disease within 14 days before admission. After adjusting for the confounders, the time taken to treat the patients was the most statistically significant predictor for mortality (P = 0.045). We found no significant relationships between mortality and its significant covariates, which included the underlying diseases (P = 0.91) or complications (P = 0.55). Our study demonstrates that the time taken to treat the patients is an important determinant for the survival of patients who are afflicted with invasive fungal rhinosinusitis. The appropriate treatments should be administered within 14 days from the time the symptoms begin to manifest.

  17. Stability in Totally Nonlinear Neutral Dynamic Equations on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Malik Belaid

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available Let T be a time scale which is unbounded above and below and such that 0∈T. Let id-τ:[0,∞∩T→T be such that (id-τ([0,∞∩T is a time scale. We use the Krasnoselskii-Burton's fixed point theorem to obtain stability results about the zero solution for the following totally nonlinear neutral dynamic equation with variable delay x^{△}(t=-a(th(x^{σ}(t+c(tx^{△}(t-τ(t+b(tG(x(t,x(t-τ(t, t∈[0,∞∩T, where f^{△} is the △-derivative on T and f^{△} is the △-derivative on (id-τ(T. The results obtained here extend the work of Ardjouni, Derrardjia and Djoudi [2].

  18. Survival time of dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy with or without adjuvant chemotherapy: 208 cases (2001-2012).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wendelburg, Kristin M; Price, Lori Lyn; Burgess, Kristine E; Lyons, Jeremiah A; Lew, Felicia H; Berg, John

    2015-08-15

    To determine survival time for dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma treated with splenectomy alone, identify potential prognostic factors, and evaluate the efficacy of adjuvant chemotherapy. Retrospective case series. 208 dogs. Medical records were reviewed, long-term follow-up information was obtained, and survival data were analyzed statistically. 154 dogs were treated with surgery alone, and 54 were treated with surgery and chemotherapy. Twenty-eight dogs received conventional chemotherapy, 13 received cyclophosphamide-based metronomic chemotherapy, and 13 received both conventional and metronomic chemotherapy. Median survival time of dogs treated with splenectomy alone was 1.6 months. Clinical stage was the only prognostic factor significantly associated with survival time. When the entire follow-up period was considered, there was no significant difference in survival time between dogs treated with surgery alone and dogs treated with surgery and chemotherapy. However, during the first 4 months of follow-up, after adjusting for the effects of clinical stage, survival time was significantly prolonged among dogs receiving any type of chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 0.6) and among dogs receiving both conventional and metronomic chemotherapy (hazard ratio, 0.4). Clinical stage was strongly associated with prognosis for dogs with splenic hemangiosarcoma. Chemotherapy was effective in prolonging survival time during the early portion of the follow-up period. Combinations of doxorubicin-based conventional protocols and cyclophosphamide-based metronomic protocols appeared to be more effective than either type of chemotherapy alone, but prolongations in survival time resulting from current protocols were modest.

  19. Foraging constraints reverse the scaling of activity time in carnivores.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rizzuto, Matteo; Carbone, Chris; Pawar, Samraat

    2017-12-04

    The proportion of time an animal spends actively foraging in a day determines its long-term fitness. Here, we derive a general mathematical model for the scaling of this activity time with body size in consumers. We show that this scaling can change from positive (increasing with size) to negative (decreasing with size) if the detectability and availability of preferred prey sizes is a limiting factor. These predictions are supported by a global dataset on 73 terrestrial carnivore species from 8 families spanning >3 orders of magnitude in size. Carnivores weighing ∼5 kg experience high foraging costs because their diets include significant proportions of relatively small (invertebrate) prey. As a result, they show an increase in activity time with size. This shifts to a negative scaling in larger carnivores as they shift to foraging on less costly vertebrate prey. Our model can be generalized to other classes of terrestrial and aquatic consumers and offers a general framework for mechanistically linking body size to population fitness and vulnerability in consumers.

  20. Backpropagation and ordered derivatives in the time scales calculus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiffertt, John; Wunsch, Donald C

    2010-08-01

    Backpropagation is the most widely used neural network learning technique. It is based on the mathematical notion of an ordered derivative. In this paper, we present a formulation of ordered derivatives and the backpropagation training algorithm using the important emerging area of mathematics known as the time scales calculus. This calculus, with its potential for application to a wide variety of inter-disciplinary problems, is becoming a key area of mathematics. It is capable of unifying continuous and discrete analysis within one coherent theoretical framework. Using this calculus, we present here a generalization of backpropagation which is appropriate for cases beyond the specifically continuous or discrete. We develop a new multivariate chain rule of this calculus, define ordered derivatives on time scales, prove a key theorem about them, and derive the backpropagation weight update equations for a feedforward multilayer neural network architecture. By drawing together the time scales calculus and the area of neural network learning, we present the first connection of two major fields of research.

  1. Microsecond time-scale kinetics of transient biochemical reactions.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sandra Mitić

    Full Text Available To afford mechanistic studies in enzyme kinetics and protein folding in the microsecond time domain we have developed a continuous-flow microsecond time-scale mixing instrument with an unprecedented dead-time of 3.8 ± 0.3 μs. The instrument employs a micro-mixer with a mixing time of 2.7 μs integrated with a 30 mm long flow-cell of 109 μm optical path length constructed from two parallel sheets of silver foil; it produces ultraviolet-visible spectra that are linear in absorbance up to 3.5 with a spectral resolution of 0.4 nm. Each spectrum corresponds to a different reaction time determined by the distance from the mixer outlet, and by the fluid flow rate. The reaction progress is monitored in steps of 0.35 μs for a total duration of ~600 μs. As a proof of principle the instrument was used to study spontaneous protein refolding of pH-denatured cytochrome c. Three folding intermediates were determined: after a novel, extremely rapid initial phase with τ = 4.7 μs, presumably reflecting histidine re-binding to the iron, refolding proceeds with time constants of 83 μs and 345 μs to a coordinatively saturated low-spin iron form in quasi steady state. The time-resolution specifications of our spectrometer for the first time open up the general possibility for comparison of real data and molecular dynamics calculations of biomacromolecules on overlapping time scales.

  2. Predicting clinical outcomes from large scale cancer genomic profiles with deep survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yousefi, Safoora; Amrollahi, Fatemeh; Amgad, Mohamed; Dong, Chengliang; Lewis, Joshua E; Song, Congzheng; Gutman, David A; Halani, Sameer H; Velazquez Vega, Jose Enrique; Brat, Daniel J; Cooper, Lee A D

    2017-09-15

    Translating the vast data generated by genomic platforms into accurate predictions of clinical outcomes is a fundamental challenge in genomic medicine. Many prediction methods face limitations in learning from the high-dimensional profiles generated by these platforms, and rely on experts to hand-select a small number of features for training prediction models. In this paper, we demonstrate how deep learning and Bayesian optimization methods that have been remarkably successful in general high-dimensional prediction tasks can be adapted to the problem of predicting cancer outcomes. We perform an extensive comparison of Bayesian optimized deep survival models and other state of the art machine learning methods for survival analysis, and describe a framework for interpreting deep survival models using a risk backpropagation technique. Finally, we illustrate that deep survival models can successfully transfer information across diseases to improve prognostic accuracy. We provide an open-source software implementation of this framework called SurvivalNet that enables automatic training, evaluation and interpretation of deep survival models.

  3. Transposition and Time-Scale Invariant Geometric Music Retrieval

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lemström, Kjell

    This paper considers how to adapt geometric algorithms, developed for content-based music retrieval of symbolically encoded music, to be robust against time deformations required by real-world applications. In this setting, music is represented by sets of points in plane. A matching, pertinent to the application, involves two such sets of points and invariances under translations and time scalings. We give an algorithm for finding exact occurrences, under such a setting, of a given query point set, of size m, within a database point set, of size n, with running time O(mn 2logn); partial occurrences are found in O(m 2 n 2logn) time. The algorithms resemble the sweepline algorithm introduced in [1].

  4. Stability theory for dynamic equations on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Martynyuk, Anatoly A

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is a first in the world to present three approaches for stability analysis of solutions of dynamic equations. The first approach is based on the application of dynamic integral inequalities and the fundamental matrix of solutions of linear approximation of dynamic equations. The second is based on the generalization of the direct Lyapunovs method for equations on time scales, using scalar, vector and matrix-valued auxiliary functions. The third approach is the application of auxiliary functions (scalar, vector, or matrix-valued ones) in combination with differential dynamic inequalities. This is an alternative comparison method, developed for time continuous and time discrete systems. In recent decades, automatic control theory in the study of air- and spacecraft dynamics and in other areas of modern applied mathematics has encountered problems in the analysis of the behavior of solutions of time continuous-discrete linear and/or nonlinear equations of perturbed motion. In the book “Men of Ma...

  5. Scale and time dependence of serial correlations in word-length time series of written texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, E.; Aguilar-Cornejo, M.; Femat, R.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

    2014-11-01

    This work considered the quantitative analysis of large written texts. To this end, the text was converted into a time series by taking the sequence of word lengths. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was used for characterizing long-range serial correlations of the time series. To this end, the DFA was implemented within a rolling window framework for estimating the variations of correlations, quantified in terms of the scaling exponent, strength along the text. Also, a filtering derivative was used to compute the dependence of the scaling exponent relative to the scale. The analysis was applied to three famous English-written literary narrations; namely, Alice in Wonderland (by Lewis Carrol), Dracula (by Bram Stoker) and Sense and Sensibility (by Jane Austen). The results showed that high correlations appear for scales of about 50-200 words, suggesting that at these scales the text contains the stronger coherence. The scaling exponent was not constant along the text, showing important variations with apparent cyclical behavior. An interesting coincidence between the scaling exponent variations and changes in narrative units (e.g., chapters) was found. This suggests that the scaling exponent obtained from the DFA is able to detect changes in narration structure as expressed by the usage of words of different lengths.

  6. How the importance of survival estimates in estimating Whinchat population dynamics depends on the scale of migratory connectivity and site fidelity

    OpenAIRE

    Cresswell, Will

    2015-01-01

    Accurate monitoring of whinchat population dynamics requires accurate estimates of breeding season survival and productivity, non-breeding survival and site fidelity (dispersal, immigration and emmigration). But monitoring of non-breeding survival between breeding seasons is confounded by the scale of site fidelity resulting in low estimates, and this will vary dependent on breeding success. Only one study (in progress) has measured true survival of whinchats on the wintering grounds (in Nige...

  7. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMillan, Matthew T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ojerholm, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Roses, Robert E., E-mail: Robert.Roses@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mamtani, Ronac [Department of Hematology/Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A. [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Datta, Jashodeep [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.

  8. Timing of adjuvant chemotherapy and its relation to survival among patients with stage III colon cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, A C R K; van Erning, F N; van Gestel, Y R B M; Creemers, G J M; Punt, C J A; van Oijen, M G H; Lemmens, V E P P

    2015-11-01

    Currently available data suggest that delaying the start of adjuvant chemotherapy in colon cancer patients has a detrimental effect on survival. We analysed which factors impact on the timing of adjuvant chemotherapy and evaluated the influence on overall survival (OS). Stage III colon cancer patients who underwent resection and received adjuvant chemotherapy between 2008 and 2013 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Timing of adjuvant chemotherapy was subdivided into: ⩽ 4, 5-6, 7-8, 9-10, 11-12 and 13-16 weeks post-surgery. Multivariable regressions were performed to assess the influence of several factors on the probability of starting treatment within 8 weeks post-surgery and to evaluate the association of timing of adjuvant chemotherapy with 5-year OS. 6620 patients received adjuvant chemotherapy, 14% commenced after 8 weeks. Factors associated with starting treatment after 8 weeks were older age (Odds ratio (OR) 65-74 versus colon cancer patients within 8 weeks post-surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. The Role of Time-Scales in Socio-hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blöschl, Günter; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2016-04-01

    Much of the interest in hydrological modeling in the past decades revolved around resolving spatial variability. With the rapid changes brought about by human impacts on the hydrologic cycle, there is now an increasing need to refocus on time dependency. We present a co-evolutionary view of hydrologic systems, in which every part of the system including human systems, co-evolve, albeit at different rates. The resulting coupled human-nature system is framed as a dynamical system, characterized by interactions of fast and slow time scales and feedbacks between environmental and social processes. This gives rise to emergent phenomena such as the levee effect, adaptation to change and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system in a dynamic way. The co-evolutionary approach differs from the traditional view of water resource systems analysis as it allows for path dependence, multiple equilibria, lock-in situations and emergent phenomena. The approach may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesise the observed dynamics of different case studies. Future research opportunities include the study of how changes in human values are connected to human-water interactions, historical analyses of trajectories of system co-evolution in individual places and comparative analyses of contrasting human-water systems in different climate and socio-economic settings. Reference Sivapalan, M. and G. Blöschl (2015) Time scale interactions and the coevolution of humans and water. Water Resour. Res., 51, 6988-7022, doi:10.1002/2015WR017896.

  10. Many roads to synchrony: natural time scales and their algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, Ryan G; Mahoney, John R; Ellison, Christopher J; Crutchfield, James P

    2014-04-01

    We consider two important time scales-the Markov and cryptic orders-that monitor how an observer synchronizes to a finitary stochastic process. We show how to compute these orders exactly and that they are most efficiently calculated from the ε-machine, a process's minimal unifilar model. Surprisingly, though the Markov order is a basic concept from stochastic process theory, it is not a probabilistic property of a process. Rather, it is a topological property and, moreover, it is not computable from any finite-state model other than the ε-machine. Via an exhaustive survey, we close by demonstrating that infinite Markov and infinite cryptic orders are a dominant feature in the space of finite-memory processes. We draw out the roles played in statistical mechanical spin systems by these two complementary length scales.

  11. Multi-Scale Dissemination of Time Series Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Qingsong; Zhou, Yongluan; Su, Li

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the problem of continuous dissemination of time series data, such as sensor measurements, to a large number of subscribers. These subscribers fall into multiple subscription levels, where each subscription level is specified by the bandwidth constraint of a subscriber......, which is an abstract indicator for both the physical limits and the amount of data that the subscriber would like to handle. To handle this problem, we propose a system framework for multi-scale time series data dissemination that employs a typical tree-based dissemination network and existing time......-series compression models. Due to the bandwidth limits regarding to potentially sheer speed of data, it is inevitable to compress and re-compress data along the dissemination paths according to the subscription level of each node. Compression would caused the accuracy loss of data, thus we devise several algorithms...

  12. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Dreitz, VJ; Heisey, Dennis M.

    2015-01-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  13. Exchanged ridge demodulation of time-scale manifold for enhanced fault diagnosis of rotating machinery

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Jun; He, Qingbo

    2014-05-01

    The vibration or acoustic signal from rotating machinery with localized fault usually behaves as the form of amplitude modulation (AM) and/or frequency modulation (FM). The demodulation techniques are conventional ways to reveal the fault characteristics from the analyzed signals. One of these techniques is the time-scale manifold (TSM) ridge demodulation method with the merits of good time-frequency localization and in-band noise suppression properties. However, due to the essential attribute of wavelet ridge, the survived in-band noise on the achieved TSM will still disturb the envelope extraction of fault-induced impulses. This paper presents an improved TSM ridge demodulation method, called exchanged ridge demodulation of TSM, by combining the benefits of the first two TSMs: the noise suppression of the first TSM and the noise separation of the second TSM. Specifically, the ridge on the second TSM can capture the fault-induced impulses precisely while avoiding the in-band noise smartly. By putting this ridge on the first TSM, the corresponding instantaneous amplitude (IA) waveform can represent the real envelope of pure faulty impulses. Moreover, an adaptive selection method for Morlet wavelet parameters is also proposed based on the smoothness index (SI) in the time-scale domain for an optimal time-scale representation of analyzed signal. The effectiveness of the proposed method is verified by means of a simulation study and applications to diagnosis of bearing defects and gear fault.

  14. Modelling galaxy merger time-scales and tidal destruction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simha, Vimal; Cole, Shaun

    2017-12-01

    We present a model for the dynamical evolution of subhaloes based on an approach combining numerical and analytical methods. Our method is based on tracking subhaloes in an N-body simulation up to the latest epoch that it can be resolved, and applying an analytic prescription for its merger time-scale that takes dynamical friction and tidal disruption into account. When applied to cosmological N-body simulations with mass resolutions that differ by two orders of magnitude, the technique produces halo occupation distributions that agree to within 3 per cent. This model has now been implemented in the GALFORM semi-analytic model of galaxy formation.

  15. Molecular clock evidence for survival of Antarctic cyanobacteria (Oscillatoriales, Phormidium autumnale) from Paleozoic times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Strunecký, Otakar; Elster, Josef; Komárek, Jiří

    2012-11-01

    Cyanobacteria are well adapted to freezing and desiccation; they have been proposed as possible survivors of comprehensive Antarctic glaciations. Filamentous types from the order Oscillatoriales, especially the species Phormidium autumnale Kützing ex Gomont 1892, have widely diverse morphotypes that dominate in Antarctic aquatic microbial mats, seepages, and wet soils. Currently little is known about the dispersion of cyanobacteria in Antarctica and of their population history. We tested the hypothesis that cyanobacteria survived Antarctic glaciations directly on site after the Gondwana breakup by using the relaxed and strict molecular clock in the analysis of the 16S rRNA gene. We estimated that the biogeographic history of Antarctic cyanobacteria belonging to P. autumnale lineages has ancient origins. The oldest go further back in time than the breakup of Gondwana and originated somewhere on the supercontinent between 442 and 297 Ma. Enhanced speciation rate was found around the time of the opening of the Drake Passage (c. 31-45 Ma) with beginning of glaciations (c. 43 Ma). Our results, based primarily on the strains collected in maritime Antarctica, mostly around James Ross Island, support the hypothesis that long-term survival took place in glacial refuges. The high morphological diversification of P. autumnale suggested the coevolution of lineages and formation of complex associations with different morphologies, resulting in a specific endemic Antarctic cyanobacterial flora. © 2012 Federation of European Microbiological Societies. Published by Blackwell Publishing Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. On balanced approximations for time integration of multiple time scale systems

    CERN Document Server

    Knoll, D A; Margolin, L G; Mousseau, V A

    2003-01-01

    The effect of various numerical approximations used to solve linear and nonlinear problems with multiple time scales is studied in the framework of modified equation analysis (MEA). First, MEA is used to study the effect of linearization and splitting in a simple nonlinear ordinary differential equation (ODE), and in a linear partial differential equation (PDE). Several time discretizations of the ODE and PDE are considered, and the resulting truncation terms are compared analytically and numerically. It is demonstrated quantitatively that both linearization and splitting can result in accuracy degradation when a computational time step larger than any of the competing (fast) time scales is employed. Many of the issues uncovered on the simple problems are shown to persist in more realistic applications. Specifically, several differencing schemes using linearization and/or time splitting are applied to problems in nonequilibrium radiation-diffusion, magnetohydrodynamics, and shallow water flow, and their solut...

  17. Association of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and survival according to ambulance response-times after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    Background: Bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases patient survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but it is unknown to what degree bystander CPR remains positively associated with survival with increasing time to potential defibrillation. The main objective...... was to examine the association of bystander CPR with survival as time to advanced treatment increases. Methods: We studied 7623 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients between 2005 and 2011, identified through the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used...... out-of-hospital cardiac arrest statistics, an additional 233 patients could potentially be saved annually if response time was reduced from 10 to 5 minutes and 119 patients if response time was reduced from 7 (the median response time in this study) to 5 minutes. Conclusions: The absolute survival...

  18. A Review of Time-Scale Modification of Music Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Driedger

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Time-scale modification (TSM is the task of speeding up or slowing down an audio signal’s playback speed without changing its pitch. In digital music production, TSM has become an indispensable tool, which is nowadays integrated in a wide range of music production software. Music signals are diverse—they comprise harmonic, percussive, and transient components, among others. Because of this wide range of acoustic and musical characteristics, there is no single TSM method that can cope with all kinds of audio signals equally well. Our main objective is to foster a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of TSM procedures. To this end, we review fundamental TSM methods, discuss typical challenges, and indicate potential solutions that combine different strategies. In particular, we discuss a fusion approach that involves recent techniques for harmonic-percussive separation along with time-domain and frequency-domain TSM procedures.

  19. Very Long Time Scales and Black Hole Thermal Equilibrium

    CERN Document Server

    Barbón, José L F

    2003-01-01

    We estimate the very long time behaviour of correlation functions in the presence of eternal black holes. It was pointed out by Maldacena (hep-th 0106112) that their vanishing would lead to a violation of a unitarity-based bound. The value of the bound is obtained from the holographic dual field theory. The correlators indeed vanish in a semiclassical bulk approximation. We trace the origin of their vanishing to the continuum energy spectrum in the presence of event horizons. We elaborate on the two very long time scales involved: one associated with the black hole and the other with a thermal gas in the vacuum background. We find that assigning a role to the thermal gas background, as suggested in the above work, does restore the compliance with a time-averaged unitarity bound. We also find that additional configurations are needed to explain the expected time dependence of the Poincar\\'e recurrences and their magnitude. It is suggested that, while a semiclassical black hole does reproduce faithfully ``coars...

  20. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  1. Time trend analysis of primary tumor resection for stage IV colorectal cancer: less surgery, improved survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hu, Chung-Yuan; Bailey, Christina E; You, Y Nancy; Skibber, John M; Rodriguez-Bigas, Miguel A; Feig, Barry W; Chang, George J

    2015-03-01

    With the advent of effective modern chemotherapeutic and biologic agents, primary tumor resection for patients with stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) may not be routinely necessary. To evaluate the secular patterns of primary tumor resection use in stage IV CRC in the United States. A retrospective cohort study using data from the National Cancer Institute's Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results CRC registry. Demographic and clinical factors were compared for 64,157 patients diagnosed with stage IV colon or rectal cancer from January 1, 1988, through December 31, 2010, who had undergone primary tumor resection and those who had not. Rates of primary tumor resection and median relative survival were calculated for each year. Joinpoint regression analysis was used to determine when a significant change in trend in the primary tumor resection rate had occurred. Logistic regression analysis was used to assess factors associated with primary tumor resection. Difference in primary tumor resection rates over time. Of the 64,157 patients with stage IV CRC, 43,273 (67.4%) had undergone primary tumor resection. The annual rate of primary tumor resection decreased from 74.5% in 1988 to 57.4% in 2010 (Ptrend toward fewer primary tumor resections was seen. Despite the decreasing primary tumor resection rate, patient survival rates improved. However, primary tumor resection may still be overused, and current treatment practices lag behind evidence-based treatment guidelines.

  2. Splenectomy increases the survival time of heart allograft via developing immune tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The spleen is an active lymphoid organ. The effect of splenectomy on the immune response remains unclear. This study investigated whether splenectomy can induce immune tolerance and has a beneficial role in cardiac allograft. Methods Wistar rats were used for heart donors. The Sprague–Dawley (SD) rats designated as the recipients of heart transplantation (HT) were randomly assigned into four groups: sham, splenectomy, HT, splenectomy + HT. The survival of transplanted hearts was assessed by daily checking of abdominal palpation. At various time points after transplantation, the transplanted hearts were collected and histologically examined; the level of CD4+CD25+ T regulatory lymphocytes (Tregs) and rate of lymphocyte apoptosis (annexin-v+ PI+ cells) in the blood were analyzed by using flow cytometric method. Results 1) Splenectomy significantly prolonged the mean survival time of heart allografts (7 ± 1.1 days and 27 ± 1.5 days for HT and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 12-14/group, HT vs. splenectomy + HT, p Splenectomy delayed pathological changes (inflammatory cell infiltration, myocardial damage) of the transplanted hearts in splenectomy + HT rats; 3) The level of CD4+CD25+ Tregs in the blood of splenectomized rats was significantly increased within 7 days (2.4 ± 0.5%, 4.9 ± 1.3% and 5.3 ± 1.0% for sham, splenectomy and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 15/group, sham vs. splenectomy or splenectomy + HT, p splenectomy surgery and gradually decreased to baseline level; 4) Splenectomy increased the rate of lymphocyte apoptosis (day 7: 0.3 ± 0.05%, 3.9 ± 0.9% and 4.1 ± 0.9% for sham, splenectomy and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 15/group, sham vs. splenectomy or splenectomy + HT, p Splenectomy inhibits the development of pathology and prolongs the survival time of cardiac allograft. The responsible mechanism is associated with induction of immune

  3. Small-scale dispersal and survival in a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gauthier, Gilles; Milot, Emmanuel; Weimerskirch, Henri

    2010-07-01

    1. Dispersal is a fundamental but still poorly known process in population dynamics and several hypotheses have been proposed to explain its patterns. We studied natal and breeding dispersal and survival in a long-lived seabird, the wandering albatross (Diomedea exulans L.), and examined several hypotheses concerning dispersal patterns in birds. 2. We applied multi-state capture-recapture models to a 36-year data set (1969-2004) collected at three albatross colonies on Ile de Possession, Crozet Islands. Because the species has biennial reproduction, we introduced unobservable states in the model to account for the absence of individuals in those years. 3. Adults were highly faithful to their nesting colony but colony fidelity, as well as survival rate, differed slightly among colonies (fidelity ranged from 0.957 to 0.977). Breeding fidelity was highest in the colony where survival was lowest and individuals were not more likely to change colony following a failed breeding attempt than after a successful one. The colony that attracted most dispersers had the lowest density of nesting birds. 4. Philopatry (the probability that young return to breed at a birth site) was generally high but variable among colonies (ranging from 0.70 to 0.92), and survival of young differed little. Philopatry was highest in the largest colony, where the availability of potential mates was presumably greatest. However, among dispersing individuals, the colony that had the lowest density of nesting individuals, not the largest colony, attracted the most recruits. 5. Although size of the colony influenced the decision to stay or to leave in young, density was most influential in the selection of a new colony among both adult and young dispersers. Our results support the hypothesis that philopatry is the strategy favoured by most recruits and that conspecific attraction can explain variation in the level of philopatry among colonies but not settlement patterns among dispersing individuals.

  4. The Urban Heat Island and its spatial scale dependent impact on survival and development in butterflies of different thermal sensitivity.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaiser, Aurélien; Merckx, Thomas; Van Dyck, Hans

    2016-06-01

    Climate alteration is one of the most cited ecological consequences of urbanization. However, the magnitude of this impact is likely to vary with spatial scale. We investigated how this alteration affects the biological fitness of insects, which are especially sensitive to ambient conditions and well-suited organisms to study urbanization-related changes in phenotypic traits. We monitored temperature and relative air humidity in wooded sites characterized by different levels of urbanization in the surroundings. Using a split-brood design experiment, we investigated the effect of urbanization at the local (i.e., 200 × 200 m) and landscape (i.e., 3 × 3 km) scale on two key traits of biological fitness in two closely related butterfly species that differ in thermal sensitivity. In line with the Urban Heat Island concept, urbanization led to a 1°C increase in daytime temperature and an 8% decrease in daytime relative humidity at the local scale. The thermophilous species Lasiommata megera responded at the local scale: larval survival increased twofold in urban compared to rural sites. Urbanized sites tended to produce bigger adults, although this was the case for males only. In the woodland species Pararge aegeria, which has recently expanded its ecological niche, we did not observe such a response, neither at the local, nor at the landscape scale. These results demonstrate interspecific differences in urbanization-related phenotypic plasticity and larval survival. We discuss larval pre-adaptations in species of different ecological profiles to urban conditions. Our results also highlight the significance of considering fine-grained spatial scales in urban ecology.

  5. Critical time scales for advection-diffusion-reaction processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ellery, Adam J.; Simpson, Matthew J.; McCue, Scott W.; Baker, Ruth E.

    2012-04-01

    The concept of local accumulation time (LAT) was introduced by Berezhkovskii and co-workers to give a finite measure of the time required for the transient solution of a reaction-diffusion equation to approach the steady-state solution [A. M. Berezhkovskii, C. Sample, and S. Y. Shvartsman, Biophys. J.BIOJAU0006-349510.1016/j.bpj.2010.07.045 99, L59 (2010); A. M. Berezhkovskii, C. Sample, and S. Y. Shvartsman, Phys. Rev. EPLEEE81539-375510.1103/PhysRevE.83.051906 83, 051906 (2011)]. Such a measure is referred to as a critical time. Here, we show that LAT is, in fact, identical to the concept of mean action time (MAT) that was first introduced by McNabb [A. McNabb and G. C. Wake, IMA J. Appl. Math.IJAMDM0272-496010.1093/imamat/47.2.193 47, 193 (1991)]. Although McNabb's initial argument was motivated by considering the mean particle lifetime (MPLT) for a linear death process, he applied the ideas to study diffusion. We extend the work of these authors by deriving expressions for the MAT for a general one-dimensional linear advection-diffusion-reaction problem. Using a combination of continuum and discrete approaches, we show that MAT and MPLT are equivalent for certain uniform-to-uniform transitions; these results provide a practical interpretation for MAT by directly linking the stochastic microscopic processes to a meaningful macroscopic time scale. We find that for more general transitions, the equivalence between MAT and MPLT does not hold. Unlike other critical time definitions, we show that it is possible to evaluate the MAT without solving the underlying partial differential equation (pde). This makes MAT a simple and attractive quantity for practical situations. Finally, our work explores the accuracy of certain approximations derived using MAT, showing that useful approximations for nonlinear kinetic processes can be obtained, again without treating the governing pde directly.

  6. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper; Tøttrup, Anders P; Chylarecki, Przemysław; Jiguet, Frédéric; Lehikoinen, Aleksi; Noble, David G; Reif, Jiri; Schmid, Hans; van Turnhout, Chris; Burfield, Ian J; Foppen, Ruud; Voříšek, Petr; van Strien, Arco; Gregory, Richard D; Rahbek, Carsten

    2016-02-01

    Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we investigate the recent impact of multiple environmental changes on European farmland birds, here focusing on climate change and land use change. We analyze more than 800 time series from 18 countries spanning the past two decades. Analysis of long-term population growth rates documents simultaneous responses that can be attributed to both climate change and land-use change, including long-term increases in populations of hot-dwelling species and declines in long-distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving long-term climate induced change. In particular, we find that birds are affected by winter, spring, and summer conditions depending on the distinct breeding phenology that corresponds to their migratory strategy. Birds in general benefit from higher temperatures or higher primary productivity early on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach will be of general use when high-resolution time series are available in large-scale biodiversity surveys. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  7. The Time Scale of Recombination Rate Evolution in Great Apes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevison, Laurie S; Woerner, August E; Kidd, Jeffrey M; Kelley, Joanna L; Veeramah, Krishna R; McManus, Kimberly F; Bustamante, Carlos D; Hammer, Michael F; Wall, Jeffrey D

    2016-04-01

    We present three linkage-disequilibrium (LD)-based recombination maps generated using whole-genome sequence data from 10 Nigerian chimpanzees, 13 bonobos, and 15 western gorillas, collected as part of the Great Ape Genome Project (Prado-Martinez J, et al. 2013. Great ape genetic diversity and population history. Nature 499:471-475). We also identified species-specific recombination hotspots in each group using a modified LDhot framework, which greatly improves statistical power to detect hotspots at varying strengths. We show that fewer hotspots are shared among chimpanzee subspecies than within human populations, further narrowing the time scale of complete hotspot turnover. Further, using species-specific PRDM9 sequences to predict potential binding sites (PBS), we show higher predicted PRDM9 binding in recombination hotspots as compared to matched cold spot regions in multiple great ape species, including at least one chimpanzee subspecies. We found that correlations between broad-scale recombination rates decline more rapidly than nucleotide divergence between species. We also compared the skew of recombination rates at centromeres and telomeres between species and show a skew from chromosome means extending as far as 10-15 Mb from chromosome ends. Further, we examined broad-scale recombination rate changes near a translocation in gorillas and found minimal differences as compared to other great ape species perhaps because the coordinates relative to the chromosome ends were unaffected. Finally, on the basis of multiple linear regression analysis, we found that various correlates of recombination rate persist throughout the African great apes including repeats, diversity, and divergence. Our study is the first to analyze within- and between-species genome-wide recombination rate variation in several close relatives. © The Author(s) 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Society for Molecular Biology and Evolution. All rights reserved. For

  8. Time-Varying Effects of Prognostic Factors Associated With Disease-Free Survival in Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Natarajan, Loki; Pu, Minya; Parker, Barbara A.; Thomson, Cynthia A.; Caan, Bette J.; Flatt, Shirley W.; Madlensky, Lisa; Hajek, Richard A.; Al-Delaimy, Wael K.; Saquib, Nazmus; Gold, Ellen B.

    2009-01-01

    Early detection and effective treatments have dramatically improved breast cancer survivorship, yet the risk of relapse persists even 15 years after the initial diagnosis. It is important to identify prognostic factors for late breast cancer events. The authors investigated time-varying effects of tumor characteristics on breast-cancer-free survival using data on 3,088 breast cancer survivors from 4 US states who participated in a randomized dietary intervention trial in 1995–2006, with maximum follow-up through 15 years (median, 9 years). A piecewise constant penalized spline approach incorporating time-varying coefficients was adopted, allowing for deviations from the proportional hazards assumption. This method is more flexible than standard approaches, provides direct estimates of hazard ratios across time intervals, and is computationally tractable. Having a stage II or III tumor was associated with a 3-fold higher hazard of breast cancer than having a stage I tumor during the first 2.5 years after diagnosis; this hazard ratio decreased to 2.1 after 7.7 years, but higher tumor stage remained a significant risk factor. Similar diminishing effects were found for poorly differentiated tumors. Interestingly, having a positive estrogen receptor status was protective up to 4 years after diagnosis but detrimental after 7.7 years (hazard ratio = 1.5). These results emphasize the importance of careful statistical modeling allowing for possibly time-dependent effects in long-term survivorship studies. PMID:19403844

  9. Practical considerations when analyzing discrete survival times using the grouped relative risk model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Altman, Rachel MacKay; Henrey, Andrew

    2017-10-11

    The grouped relative risk model (GRRM) is a popular semi-parametric model for analyzing discrete survival time data. The maximum likelihood estimators (MLEs) of the regression coefficients in this model are often asymptotically efficient relative to those based on a more restrictive, parametric model. However, in settings with a small number of sampling units, the usual properties of the MLEs are not assured. In this paper, we discuss computational issues that can arise when fitting a GRRM to small samples, and describe conditions under which the MLEs can be ill-behaved. We find that, overall, estimators based on a penalized score function behave substantially better than the MLEs in this setting and, in particular, can be far more efficient. We also provide methods of assessing the fit of a GRRM to small samples.

  10. Irradiation shortens the survival time of red cells deficient in glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenasee

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Westerman, M.P. (Rush Medical College, Chicago, IL); Wald, N.; Diloy-Puray, M.

    1980-03-01

    X radiation of glucose-6-phosphate dehydrogenase (G6PD)-deficient red cells causes distinct shortening of their survival time. This is accompanied by significant lowering of reduced glutathione content and is not observed in similarly prepared and treated normal cells. The damage is most likely related to irradiation-induced formation of activated oxygen products and to their subsequent effects on the cells. Neither methemoglobin increases nor Heinz body formation were observed, suggesting that hemolysis occurred prior to these changes. The study provides a model for examining the effects of irradiation and activated oxygen on red cells and suggests that patients with G6PD deficiency who receive irradiation could develop severe hemolysis in certain clinical settings.

  11. Neural Computations in a Dynamical System with Multiple Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Yuanyuan; Lin, Xiaohan; Wu, Si

    2016-01-01

    Neural systems display rich short-term dynamics at various levels, e.g., spike-frequency adaptation (SFA) at the single-neuron level, and short-term facilitation (STF) and depression (STD) at the synapse level. These dynamical features typically cover a broad range of time scales and exhibit large diversity in different brain regions. It remains unclear what is the computational benefit for the brain to have such variability in short-term dynamics. In this study, we propose that the brain can exploit such dynamical features to implement multiple seemingly contradictory computations in a single neural circuit. To demonstrate this idea, we use continuous attractor neural network (CANN) as a working model and include STF, SFA and STD with increasing time constants in its dynamics. Three computational tasks are considered, which are persistent activity, adaptation, and anticipative tracking. These tasks require conflicting neural mechanisms, and hence cannot be implemented by a single dynamical feature or any combination with similar time constants. However, with properly coordinated STF, SFA and STD, we show that the network is able to implement the three computational tasks concurrently. We hope this study will shed light on the understanding of how the brain orchestrates its rich dynamics at various levels to realize diverse cognitive functions. PMID:27679569

  12. BOX-COX REGRESSION METHOD IN TIME SCALING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ATİLLA GÖKTAŞ

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Box-Cox regression method with λj, for j = 1, 2, ..., k, power transformation can be used when dependent variable and error term of the linear regression model do not satisfy the continuity and normality assumptions. The situation obtaining the smallest mean square error  when optimum power λj, transformation for j = 1, 2, ..., k, of Y has been discussed. Box-Cox regression method is especially appropriate to adjust existence skewness or heteroscedasticity of error terms for a nonlinear functional relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. In this study, the advantage and disadvantage use of Box-Cox regression method have been discussed in differentiation and differantial analysis of time scale concept.

  13. Survival analysis and prognostic factors of timing of first childbirth among women in Nigeria.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fagbamigbe, Adeniyi Francis; Idemudia, Erhabor Sunday

    2016-05-13

    First childbirth in a woman's life is one of the most important events in her life. It marks a turnaround when she might have to drop roles of career building and education, for motherhood and parenthood. The timing of the commencement of these roles affects the child bearing behavior of women as they progress in their reproductive ages. Prevalent early first childbirth in Nigeria has been reported as the main cause of high population growth and high  fertility, mortality and morbidity among women, but little has been documented on the progression into first birth as well as factors affecting it in Nigeria. This paper modelled timing of first birth among women in Nigeria and determined socio-demographic and other factors affecting its timing. We hypothesized that background characteristics of a woman will influence her progression into having first birth. We developed and fitted a survival analysis model to understand the timing of first birth among women in Nigeria using a national representative 2013 NDHS data. Women with no children were right censored as of the date of the survey. The Kaplan Meier survival function was used to estimate the probabilities of first birth not occurring until certain ages of women while Cox proportional hazard regression was used to model the timing of first births at 5 % significance level. About 75.7 % of the respondents had given birth in the Northern region of Nigerian compared with 63.8 % in the South. Half (50.1 %) of the first childbirth occurred within the 15-19 years age bracket and 38.1 % within 20-29 years. The overall median survival time to first birth was 20 years (North 19, South 22), 27 years among women with higher education and 18 years for those with no formal education. The adjusted hazard of first birth was higher in the Northern region of Nigeria than in the South (aHR = 1.24, 95 % CI: 1.20-1.27), and higher in rural areas than in urban areas (aHR = 1.15, 95 % CI: 1.12-1.19). Also, hazard of earlier first

  14. The effect of timing of the first kidney transplantation on survival in children initiating renal replacement therapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kramer, Anneke; Stel, Vianda S; Geskus, Ronald B

    2012-01-01

    Controversy exists concerning the timing of the first kidney transplantation for children who need to start renal replacement therapy (RRT). Our aim was to estimate the effect of timing of the first transplantation on patient survival in children, for the first time also taking into account...

  15. A mixed linear model controlling for case underascertainment across multiple cancer registries estimated time trends in survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dahm, Stefan; Bertz, Joachim; Barnes, Benjamin; Kraywinkel, Klaus

    2018-01-10

    Large temporal and geographical variation in survival rates estimated from epidemiological cancer registries coupled with heterogeneity in death certificate only (DCO) notifications makes it difficult to interpret trends in survival. The aim of our study is to introduce a method for estimating such trends while accounting for heterogeneity in DCO notifications in a cancer site-specific manner. We used the data of 4.0 million cancer cases notified in 14 German epidemiological cancer registries. Annual 5-year relative survival rates from 2002 through 2013 were estimated, and proportions of DCO notifications were recorded. "DCO-excluded" survival rates were regressed on DCO proportions and calendar years using a mixed linear model with cancer registry as a random effect. Based on this model, trends in survival rates were estimated for Germany at 0% DCO. For most cancer sites and age groups, we estimated significant positive trends in survival. Age-standardized survival for all cancers combined increased by 7.1% units for women and 10.8% units for men. The described method could be used to estimate trends in cancer survival based on the data from epidemiological cancer registries with differing DCO proportions and with changing DCO proportions over time. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  16. The Dynamics of Cuspate Spits at Geological Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bouchette, F.; Manna, M.; Camps, N.; Mohammadi, B.

    2016-12-01

    Zenkovitch (1959) first described cuspate spits as a limited category of shore-connected features that result from symmetrical wind/ wave forcings and/ or peculiar initial shore configuration. Later on, Asthon et al. (2001) and Asthon and Murray (2006) proned that cuspate spits, flying spits and other shoreline features derive from instabilities inherent in the relationship between alongshore sediment transport and local shoreline orientation. They exhibited a comprehensive weakly non-linear theory for cuspate and spit dynamics, and gave a striking numerical solutions to the problem. Recently, Bouchette et al. (2014) provided an alternative explicit formulation for the growth of cuspate spits through time. From this last formulation, it was demonstrated that there exists an exact relationship between the amplitude, the length of a cuspate on one side, and the longshore diffusivity and the time on the other side. In the present work, we explore how this relationship can be used to predict various coastal characteristics at decadal/geological time scales as soon as a cuspate develops in the area concerned. This formulation can be considered as a method for the datation of a cuspate spit. Alternatively, it can allow to estimate the mean fluxes of sediment trapped along the shore. The model is validated thanks to a comparison with observed cuspates. The cuspate law suggests that the length of the cuspate and its amplitude may be related through a power law (to the power of three). We demonstrate that this power law is not a simple mathematical result but does exist in the nature. The occurrence of a power law suggests also that more underlying physics remain to be analysed in the process of nucleation and growth of cuspate spits.Asthon, A., Murray, B., 2006. High-angle wave instability and emergent shoreline shapes: 1) modeling of sand waves, flying spits and capes. Journal of Geophysical Research, 111, F04011. Asthon, A., Murray, B., Arnault, O., 2001. Formation of

  17. Impact of collaborative care on survival time for dogs with congestive heart failure and revenue for attending primary care veterinarians.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lefbom, Bonnie K; Peckens, Neal K

    2016-07-01

    OBJECTIVE To assess the effects of in-person collaborative care by primary care veterinarians (pcDVMs) and board-certified veterinary cardiologists (BCVCs) on survival time of dogs after onset of congestive heart failure (CHF) and on associated revenue for the attending pcDVMs. DESIGN Retrospective cohort study. ANIMALS 26 small-breed dogs treated for naturally occurring CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease at a multilocation primary care veterinary hospital between 2008 and 2013. PROCEDURES Electronic medical records were reviewed to identify dogs with confirmed CHF secondary to myxomatous mitral valve disease and collect information on patient care, survival time, and pcDVM revenue. Data were compared between dogs that received collaborative care from the pcDVM and a BCVC and dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone. RESULTS Dogs that received collaborative care had a longer median survival time (254 days) than did dogs that received care from the pcDVM alone (146 days). A significant positive correlation was identified between pcDVM revenue and survival time for dogs that received collaborative care (ie, the longer the dog survived, the greater the pcDVM revenue generated from caring for that patient). CONCLUSIONS AND CLINICAL RELEVANCE Findings suggested that collaborative care provided to small-breed dogs with CHF by a BCVC and pcDVM could result in survival benefits for affected dogs and increased revenue for pcDVMs, compared with care provided by a pcDVM alone.

  18. Analysis of multilevel grouped survival data with time-varying regression coefficients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, May C M; Lam, K F; Lo, Edward C M

    2011-02-10

    Correlated or multilevel grouped survival data are common in medical and dental research. Two common approaches to analyze such data are the marginal and the random-effects approaches. Models and methods in the literature generally assume that the treatment effect is constant over time. A researcher may be interested in studying whether the treatment effects in a clinical trial vary over time, say fade out gradually. This is of particular clinical value when studying the long-term effect of a treatment. This paper proposed to extend the random effects grouped proportional hazards models by incorporating the possibly time-varying covariate effects into the model in terms of a state-space formulation. The proposed model is very flexible and the estimation can be performed using the MCMC approach with non-informative priors in the Bayesian framework. The method is applied to a data set from a prospective clinical trial investigating the effectiveness of silver diamine fluoride (SDF) and sodium fluoride (NaF) varnish in arresting active dentin caries in the Chinese preschool children. It is shown that the treatment groups with caries removal prior to the topical fluoride applications are most effective in shortening the arrest times in the first 6-month interval, but their effects fade out rapidly since then. The effects of treatment groups without caries removal prior to topical fluoride application drop at a very slow rate and can be considered as more or less constant over time. The applications of SDF solution is found to be more effective than the applications of NaF vanish. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  19. Time Scales of Conformational Gating in a Lipid-Binding Protein.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaieda, Shuji; Halle, Bertil

    2015-06-25

    Lipid-binding proteins sequester amphiphilic molecules in a large internal cavity occupied by ∼30 water molecules, some of which are displaced by the ligand. The role of these internal water molecules in lipid binding and release is not understood. We use magnetic relaxation dispersion (MRD) to directly monitor internal-water dynamics in apo and palmitate-bound rat intestinal fatty acid-binding protein (rIFABP). Specifically, we record the water (2)H and (17)O MRD profiles of the apo and holo forms of rIFABP in solution or immobilized by covalent cross-links. A global analysis of this extensive data set identifies three internal-water classes with mean survival times of ∼1 ns, ∼100 ns, and ∼6 μs. We associate the two longer time scales with conformational fluctuations of the gap between β-strands D and E (∼6 μs) and of the portal at the helix-capped end of the β-barrel (∼100 ns). These fluctuations limit the exchange rates of a few highly ordered structural water molecules but not the dissociation rate of the fatty acid. The remaining 90% (apo) or 70% (holo) of cavity waters exchange among internal hydration sites on a time scale of ∼1 ns but exhibit substantial orientational order, particularly in the holo form.

  20. Predicting time to recall in patients conditionally released from a secure forensic hospital: A survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jewell, Amelia; Cocks, Christopher; Cullen, Alexis E; Fahy, Tom; Dean, Kimberlie

    2018-01-17

    The recall of conditionally discharged forensic patients in England is a formal order from the Ministry of Justice under the Mental Health Act (1983) which has the power to revoke conditional release and direct readmission to hospital. Recall has significant implications for the individual and for hospital services, but despite this, little is known about predictors of recall for forensic patients. We examined the rate of recall for 101 patients conditionally discharged from medium secure forensic inpatient services between 2007 and 2013. Demographic, clinical, and forensic factors were examined as possible predictors of time to recall using Cox regression survival techniques. Conditionally discharged patients were followed for an average of 811 days, during which 45 (44.5%) were recalled to hospital. Younger age (HR 1.89; 95% CI 1.02-3.49; p = 0.04), non-white ethnicity (HR 3.44; 95% CI 1.45-8.13), substance abuse history (HR 2.52; 95% CI 1.17-5.43), early violence (HR 1.90; 95% CI 1.03-3.50), early childhood maladjustment (HR 1.92; 95% CI 1.01-3.68), treatment with a depot medication (HR 2.17; 95% CI 1.14-4.11), being known to mental health services (HR 3.44; 95% CI 1.06-11.16), and a psychiatric admission prior to the index admission (HR 2.44; 95% CI 1.08-5.52) were significantly associated with a shorter time to recall. Treatment with clozapine reduced the risk of recall to hospital (HR 0.40; 95% CI 0.20-0.79). Time to recall can be predicted by a range of factors that are readily available to clinical teams. Further research is required to determine if targeted interventions can modify the likelihood or time to recall for conditionally released forensic patients. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  1. The effect of time to defibrillation and targeted temperature management on functional survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drennan, Ian R; Lin, Steve; Thorpe, Kevin E; Morrison, Laurie J

    2014-11-01

    Cardiac arrest physiology has been proposed to occur in three distinct phases: electrical, circulatory and metabolic. There is limited research evaluating the relationship of the 3-phase model of cardiac arrest to functional survival at hospital discharge. Furthermore, the effect of post-cardiac arrest targeted temperature management (TTM) on functional survival during each phase is unknown. To determine the effect of TTM on the relationship between the time of initial defibrillation during each phase of cardiac arrest and functional survival at hospital discharge. This was a retrospective observational study of consecutive adult (≥18 years) out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients with initial shockable rhythms. Included patients obtained a return of spontaneous circulation (ROSC) and were eligible for TTM. Multivariable logistic regression was used to determine predictors of functional survival at hospital discharge. There were 20,165 OHCA treated by EMS and 871 patients were eligible for TTM. Of these patients, 622 (71.4%) survived to hospital discharge and 487 (55.9%) had good functional survival. Good functional survival was associated with younger age (OR 0.94; 95% CI 0.93-0.95), shorter times from collapse to initial defibrillation (OR 0.73; 95% CI 0.65-0.82), and use of post-cardiac arrest TTM (OR 1.49; 95% CI 1.07-2.30). Functional survival decreased during each phase of the model (65.3% vs. 61.7% vs. 50.2%, Pdefibrillation and was decreased during each successive phase of the 3-phase model. Post-cardiac arrest TTM was associated with improved functional survival. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  3. Restricted mean survival time over 15 years for patients starting renal replacement therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Couchoud, Cécile; Dantony, Emmanuelle; Elsensohn, Mad-Hélénie; Villar, Emmanuel; Vigneau, Cécile; Moranne, Olivier; Rabilloud, Muriel; Ecochard, René

    2017-04-01

    The restricted mean survival time (RMST) estimates life expectancy up to a given time horizon and can thus express the impact of a disease. The aim of this study was to estimate the 15-year RMST of a hypothetical cohort of incident patients starting renal replacement therapy (RRT), according to their age, gender and diabetes status, and to compare it with the expected RMST of the general population. Using data from 67 258 adult patients in the French Renal Epidemiology and Information Network (REIN) registry, we estimated the RMST of a hypothetical patient cohort (and its subgroups) for the first 15 years after starting RRT (cRMST) and used the general population mortality tables to estimate the expected RMST (pRMST). Results were expressed in three different ways: the cRMST, which calculates the years of life gained under the hypothesis of 100% death without RRT treatment, the difference between the pRMST and the cRMST (the years lost), and a ratio expressing the percentage reduction of the expected RMST: (pRMST - cRMST)/pRMST. Over their first 15 years of RRT, the RMST of end-stage renal disease (ESRD) patients decreased with age, ranging from 14.3 years in patients without diabetes aged 18 years at ESRD to 1.8 years for those aged 90 years, and from 12.7 to 1.6 years, respectively, for those with diabetes; expected RMST varied from 15.0 to 4.1 years between 18 and 90 years. The number of years lost in all subgroups followed a bell curve that was highest for patients aged 70 years. After the age of 55 years in patients with and 70 years in patients without diabetes, the reduction of the expected RMST was >50%. While neither a clinician nor a survival curve can predict with absolute certainty how long a patient will live, providing estimates on years gained or lost, or percentage reduction of expected RMST, may improve the accuracy of the prognostic estimates that influence clinical decisions and information given to patients.

  4. Science at the Time-scale of the Electron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, Margaret

    2010-03-01

    Replace this text with your abstract Ever since the invention of the laser 50 years ago and its application in nonlinear optics, scientists have been striving to extend coherent laser beams into the x-ray region of the spectrum. Very recently however, the prospects for tabletop coherent sources, with attosecond pulse durations, at very short wavelengths even in the hard x-ray region of the spectrum at wavelengths new ability to manipulate electrons on the fastest, attosecond, time-scales of our natural world. My talk will discuss new experimental data that demonstrates high harmonic generation of laser-like, fully coherent, 10 attosecond duration, soft x-ray beams at photon energies around 0.5keV. Several applications will also be discussed, including making a movie of how electron orbitals in a molecule change shape as a molecule breaks apart, following how fast a magnetic material can flip orientation, understanding how fast heat flows in a nanocircuit, or building a microscope without lenses. [4pt] [1] T. Popmintchev et al., ``Phase matched upconversion of coherent ultrafast laser light into the soft and hard x-ray regions of the spectrum'', PNAS 106, 10516 (2009). [0pt] [2] C. LaOVorakiat et al., ``Ultrafast Soft X-Ray Magneto-Optics at the M-edge Using a Tabletop High-Harmonic Source'', Physical Review Letters 103, 257402 (2009). [0pt] [3] M. Siemens et al. ``Measurement of quasi-ballistic heat transport across nanoscale interfaces using ultrafast coherent soft x-ray beams'', Nature Materials 9, 26 (2010). [0pt] [4] K. Raines et al., ``Three-dimensional structure determination from a single view,'' Nature 463, 214 (2010). [0pt] [5] W. Li et al., ``Time-resolved Probing of Dynamics in Polyatomic Molecules using High Harmonic Generation'', Science 322, 1207 (2008).

  5. Time scaled phylogeography and demography of Bradypus torquatus (Pilosa: Bradypodidae

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco A.A. Schetino

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available The maned sloth Bradypus torquatus (Bradypodidae:Pilosa is an endangered and endemic species of the Atlantic Forest in Brazil, a biome that was anthropogenically reduced to about 7% of its original extent. Nowadays, an apparently decreasing population is restricted to few remaining rainforest fragments. We analyzed nuclear and mitochondrial genes of 69 individuals from the Brazilian states of Bahia, Espírito Santo and Rio de Janeiro to estimate their current and historical population dynamics. The diversification history of B. torquatus populations was mainly led by dispersal and vicariant events occurring during Pliocene and Pleistocene associated to several climatic and vegetation changes. Besides, the current distribution of remaining populations was also likely affected by recent anthropogenic deforestation occurring in the last five centuries in Brazil, resulting in local extinction of many intermediate B. torquatus populations. Our time scaled phylogeographic results indicate that in the Pliocene, an ancestral population of B. torquatus was originally located in the intermediate Atlantic Forest region between BA and ES states and dispersed northwards and southwards to its current range. These results indicate also that the northern and southern Atlantic Forest B. torquatus lineages should have independent management plans and conservation policies due to their ancient history of isolation and evolutionary independency.

  6. Time preference and its relationship with age, health, and survival probability

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li-Wei Chao

    2009-02-01

    Full Text Available Although theories from economics and evolutionary biology predict that one's age, health, and survival probability should be associated with one's subjective discount rate (SDR, few studies have empirically tested for these links. Our study analyzes in detail how the SDR is related to age, health, and survival probability, by surveying a sample of individuals in townships around Durban, South Africa. In contrast to previous studies, we find that age is not significantly related to the SDR, but both physical health and survival expectations have a U-shaped relationship with the SDR. Individuals in very poor health have high discount rates, and those in very good health also have high discount rates. Similarly, those with expected survival probability on the extremes have high discount rates. Therefore, health and survival probability, and not age, seem to be predictors of one's SDR in an area of the world with high morbidity and mortality.

  7. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...... foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... that can be attributed to both climate change and land-use change, including long-term increases in populations of hot-dwelling species and declines in long-distance migrants and farmland specialists. In contrast, analysis of annual growth rates yield novel insights into the potential mechanisms driving...

  8. Abridged geriatric assessment is a better predictor of overall survival than the Karnofsky Performance Scale and Physical Performance Test in elderly patients with cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghosn, Marwan; Ibrahim, Tony; El Rassy, Elie; Nassani, Najib; Ghanem, Sassine; Assi, Tarek

    2017-03-01

    Comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) is a complex and interdisciplinary approach to evaluate the health status of elderly patients. The Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) and Physical Performance Test (PPT) are less time-consuming tools that measure functional status. This study was designed to assess and compare abridged geriatric assessment (GA), KPS and PPT as predictive tools of mortality in elderly patients with cancer. This prospective interventional study included all individuals aged >70years who were diagnosed with cancer during the study period. Subjects were interviewed directly using a procedure that included a clinical test and a questionnaire composed of the KPS, PPT and abridged GCA. Overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint. The log rank test was used to compare survival curves, and Cox's regression model (forward procedure) was used for multivariate survival analysis. One hundred patients were included in this study. Abridged GA was the only tool found to predict mortality [median OS for unfit patients (at least two impairments) 467days vs 1030days for fit patients; p=0.04]. Patients defined as fit by mean PPT score (>20) had worse median OS (560 vs 721days); however, this difference was not significant (p=0.488 on log rank). Although median OS did not differ significantly between patients with low (≤80) and high (>80) KPS scores (467 and 795days, respectively; p=0.09), survival curves diverged after nearly 120days of follow-up. Visual and hearing impairments were the only components of abridged GA of prognostic value. Neither KPS nor PPT were shown to predict mortality in elderly patients with cancer whereas abridged GA was predictive. This study suggests a possible role for visual and hearing assessment as screening for patients requiring CGA. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Dietary magnesium and copper affect survival time and neuroinflammation in chronic wasting disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nichols, Tracy A; Spraker, Terry R; Gidlewski, Thomas; Cummings, Bruce; Hill, Dana; Kong, Qingzhong; Balachandran, Aru; VerCauteren, Kurt C; Zabel, Mark D

    2016-05-03

    Chronic wasting disease (CWD), the only known wildlife prion disease, affects deer, elk and moose. The disease is an ongoing and expanding problem in both wild and captive North American cervid populations and is difficult to control in part due to the extreme environmental persistence of prions, which can transmit disease years after initial contamination. The role of exogenous factors in CWD transmission and progression is largely unexplored. In an effort to understand the influence of environmental and dietary constituents on CWD, we collected and analyzed water and soil samples from CWD-negative and positive captive cervid facilities, as well as from wild CWD-endozootic areas. Our analysis revealed that, when compared with CWD-positive sites, CWD-negative sites had a significantly higher concentration of magnesium, and a higher magnesium/copper (Mg/Cu) ratio in the water than that from CWD-positive sites. When cevidized transgenic mice were fed a custom diet devoid of Mg and Cu and drinking water with varied Mg/Cu ratios, we found that higher Mg/Cu ratio resulted in significantly longer survival times after intracerebral CWD inoculation. We also detected reduced levels of inflammatory cytokine gene expression in mice fed a modified diet with a higher Mg/Cu ratio compared to those on a standard rodent diet. These findings indicate a role for dietary Mg and Cu in CWD pathogenesis through modulating inflammation in the brain.

  10. Long-Time Survival of a Patient with Metastatic Pancreatic Cancer: A Case Report

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Željko Soldić

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Pancreatic cancer is a malignant neoplasm of the pancreas. It does not cause any symptoms in the early stage, and later symptoms are nonspecific, thus the disease is usually diagnosed when already advanced. In 2008, pancreatic cancer ranked eighth on the list of the 10 most common cancers among men in Croatia and tenth on the list of the most common cancers among Croatian women. Pancreatic cancer has a poor prognosis, with a survival time of only 6–8 months for metastatic disease. Gemcitabine is the standard chemotherapeutic option. Other chemotherapeutic agents include5-fluorouracil and leucovorin. In this paper, we present a case of a patient diagnosed with locally advanced and metastatic pancreatic cancer, who is still alive and currently receives his fourth line of chemotherapy 5 years after the diagnosis. Following disease progression on gemcitabine chemotherapy, he was treated with chemoradiotherapy which, however, had no effect. We then applied cisplatin monochemotherapy which offered excellent disease control, was well tolerated by the patient and, although somewhat obsolete in this form, showed to be a valuable chemotherapeutic option.

  11. The accuracy of survival time prediction for patients with glioma is improved by measuring mitotic spindle checkpoint gene expression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bie

    Full Text Available Identification of gene expression changes that improve prediction of survival time across all glioma grades would be clinically useful. Four Affymetrix GeneChip datasets from the literature, containing data from 771 glioma samples representing all WHO grades and eight normal brain samples, were used in an ANOVA model to screen for transcript changes that correlated with grade. Observations were confirmed and extended using qPCR assays on RNA derived from 38 additional glioma samples and eight normal samples for which survival data were available. RNA levels of eight major mitotic spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC genes (BUB1, BUB1B, BUB3, CENPE, MAD1L1, MAD2L1, CDC20, TTK significantly correlated with glioma grade and six also significantly correlated with survival time. In particular, the level of BUB1B expression was highly correlated with survival time (p<0.0001, and significantly outperformed all other measured parameters, including two standards; WHO grade and MIB-1 (Ki-67 labeling index. Measurement of the expression levels of a small set of SAC genes may complement histological grade and other clinical parameters for predicting survival time.

  12. Time trends in population-based breast cancer survival in Estonia: analysis by age and stage.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baburin, Aleksei; Aareleid, Tiiu; Padrik, Peeter; Valvere, Vahur; Innos, Kaire

    2014-02-01

    Survival from breast cancer (BC) in Estonia has been consistently among the lowest in Europe. The aim of this study was to examine most recent trends in BC survival in Estonia by age and stage. The trends in overall BC incidence and mortality are also shown in the paper. Estonian Cancer Registry data on all cases of BC, diagnosed in women in Estonia during 1995-2007 (n = 7424) and followed up for vital status through 2009, were used to estimate relative survival ratios (RSR). Period hybrid approach was used to obtain the most recent estimates (2005-2009). Stage was classified as localized, local/regional spread or distant. BC incidence continued to rise throughout the study period, but mortality has been in steady decline since 2000. The distribution of patients shifted towards older age and earlier stage at diagnosis. Overall age-standardized five-year RSR increased from 63% in 1995-1999 to 74% in 2005-2009. Younger age groups experienced a more rapid improvement compared to women over 60. Significant survival increase was observed for both localized and locally/regionally spread BC with five-year RSRs reaching 96% and 70% in 2005-2009, respectively; the latest five-year RSR for distant BC was 11%. Survival for T4 tumors was poor and large age difference was seen for locally/regionally spread BC. Considerable improvement in BC survival was observed over the study period. Women under 60 benefited most from both earlier diagnosis and treatment advances of locally/regionally spread cancers. However, the survival gap with more developed countries persists. Further increase in survival, but also decline in BC mortality in Estonia could be achieved by facilitating early diagnosis in all age groups, but particularly among women over 60. Investigations should continue to clarify the underlying mechanisms of the stage-specific survival deficit in Estonia.

  13. Surviving blind decomposition: A distributional analysis of the time-course of complex word recognition.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schmidtke, Daniel; Matsuki, Kazunaga; Kuperman, Victor

    2017-11-01

    The current study addresses a discrepancy in the psycholinguistic literature about the chronology of information processing during the visual recognition of morphologically complex words. Form-then-meaning accounts of complex word recognition claim that morphemes are processed as units of form prior to any influence of their meanings, whereas form-and-meaning models posit that recognition of complex word forms involves the simultaneous access of morphological and semantic information. The study reported here addresses this theoretical discrepancy by applying a nonparametric distributional technique of survival analysis (Reingold & Sheridan, 2014) to 2 behavioral measures of complex word processing. Across 7 experiments reported here, this technique is employed to estimate the point in time at which orthographic, morphological, and semantic variables exert their earliest discernible influence on lexical decision RTs and eye movement fixation durations. Contrary to form-then-meaning predictions, Experiments 1-4 reveal that surface frequency is the earliest lexical variable to exert a demonstrable influence on lexical decision RTs for English and Dutch derived words (e.g., badness; bad + ness), English pseudoderived words (e.g., wander; wand + er) and morphologically simple control words (e.g., ballad; ball + ad). Furthermore, for derived word processing across lexical decision and eye-tracking paradigms (Experiments 1-2; 5-7), semantic effects emerge early in the time-course of word recognition, and their effects either precede or emerge simultaneously with morphological effects. These results are not consistent with the premises of the form-then-meaning view of complex word recognition, but are convergent with a form-and-meaning account of complex word recognition. (PsycINFO Database Record (c) 2017 APA, all rights reserved).

  14. Association of serum lipid levels over time with survival in incident peritoneal dialysis patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Cheol Ho; Kang, Ea Wha; Park, Jung Tak; Han, Seung Hyeok; Yoo, Tae-Hyun; Kang, Shin-Wook; Chang, Tae Ik

    The association of dyslipidemia with mortality has not been fully evaluated in patients on peritoneal dialysis (PD). Moreover, changes in lipids levels over time and associated death risk have not yet been studied in this population. We studied the association of time-updated serum lipid concentrations with all-cause and cardiovascular (CV) mortalities in a 10-year cohort of 749 incident PD patients. Association was assessed using time-varying Cox proportional hazard regression models with adjustment for multiple variables including statin therapy. During a median follow-up of 36 (interquartile range, 21-61) months, 273 all-cause and 107 CV deaths occurred. Compared with those with total cholesterol (TC) of 180 to <210 or low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C) of 100 to <130 mg/dL, hazard ratios (95% confidence interval) of the lowest TC (<150 mg/dL) and LDL-C (<70 mg/dL) were 2.32 (1.61-3.35) and 2.02 (1.45-2.83) for all-cause mortality and 1.87 (1.04-3.37) and 1.92 (1.13-3.26) for CV mortality, respectively. Lower triglyceride (<100 mg/dL) and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (<30 mg/dL) levels were associated with higher all-cause mortality (1.66 [1.11-2.47] and 1.57 [1.08-2.29]) but not with CV mortality. Contrary to the general population, lower TC and LDL-C levels over time were significantly associated with both worse survival and increased CV mortality in incident PD patients. Although lower triglyceride and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol concentrations were associated with significantly higher all-cause mortality, they failed to show any clear association with CV mortality. The underlying mechanisms responsible for this apparent paradox await further investigations. Copyright © 2017 National Lipid Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  15. Time to adjuvant chemotherapy following colorectal cancer resection is associated with an improved survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Day, A R; Middleton, G; Smith, R V P; Jourdan, I C; Rockall, T A

    2014-05-01

    Multicentre randomized trials have demonstrated equivalent long-term outcomes for open and laparoscopic resection of colon cancer. Some studies have indicated a possible survival advantage in certain patients undergoing laparoscopic resection. Patients who receive adjuvant chemotherapy in improved survival. Data were collated for patients having an elective laparoscopic or open resection for non-metastatic colorectal cancer between October 2003 and December 2010 and subsequently having adjuvant chemotherapy. Survival analysis was conducted. In all, 209 patients received adjuvant chemotherapy following open (n = 76) or laparoscopic (n = 133) surgery. Median length of stay was 3 days with laparoscopic resection and 6 days with open resection (P chemotherapy was 52 with laparoscopic resection and 58 with open resection (P = 0.008). The 5-year overall survival was 89.6% in patients receiving chemotherapy in chemotherapy chemotherapy. Colorectal Disease © 2014 The Association of Coloproctology of Great Britain and Ireland.

  16. Breast cancer and leptomeningeal disease (LMD): hormone receptor status influences time to development of LMD and survival from LMD diagnosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yust-Katz, S; Garciarena, P; Liu, D; Yuan, Y; Ibrahim, N; Yerushalmi, R; Penas-Prado, M; Groves, M D

    2013-09-01

    Leptomeningeal disease (LMD) occurs in 5 % of breast cancer patients. The aim of this study was to identify risk factors related to survival and time to development of LMD in breast cancer patients. A retrospective analysis of breast cancer patients with LMD, evaluated in MDACC between 1995 and 2011. 103 patients with diagnosis of breast cancer and LMD were identified (one male). The median age at LMD diagnosis was 49.2 years. 78.2 % had invasive ductal carcinoma. Hormone receptors (HRs) were positive in 55.3 % of patients, 47.4 % were human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-positive and 22.8 % were triple negative. 52 % of the patients were treated with WBRT, 19 % with spinal radiation, 36 % with systemic chemotherapy and 55 % with intrathecal chemotherapy. Estimated median overall survival from time of breast cancer diagnosis was 3.66 years. Median survival from time of LMD diagnosis was 4.2 months. Time from breast cancer diagnosis to LMD was 2.48 years. In multivariate analysis, HR status and stage at diagnosis were significantly associated with time to LMD diagnosis (p < 0.05). In triple negative patients, time to LMD was shorter. In patients who were HR positive, time to LMD was longer. Survival from LMD diagnosis was significantly associated with both treatment, as well as positive HR status (multivariate analysis p < 0.05). In conclusion LMD has dismal prognosis in breast cancer patients. HR status contributes to time to LMD diagnosis and survival from LMD diagnosis. The impact of treatment aimed at LMD cannot be ascertained in our retrospective study due to the inherent bias associated with the decision to treat.

  17. A conceptual framework for time and space scale interactions in the climate system

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Meehl, G.A. [National Center for Atmospheric Research (United States); Lukas, R. [University of Hawaii (United States); Kiladis, G.N. [NOAA Aeronomy Lab (United States); Weickmann, K.M. [NOAA Climate Diagnostics Center (United States); Matthews, A.J. [University of East Anglia, Norwich (United Kingdom); Wheeler, M. [Bureau of Meteorology Research Centre (Australia)

    2001-07-01

    Interactions involving various time and space scales, both within the tropics and between the tropics and midlatitudes, are ubiquitous in the climate system. We propose a conceptual framework for understanding such interactions whereby longer time scales and larger space scales set the base state for processes on shorter time scales and smaller space scales, which in turn have an influence back on the longer time scales and larger space scales in a continuum of process-related interactions. Though not intended to be comprehensive, we do cite examples from the literature to provide evidence for the validity of this framework. Decadal time scale base states of the coupled climate system set the context for the manifestation of interannual time scales (El Nino/Southern Oscillation, ENSO and tropospheric biennial oscillation, TBO) which are influenced by and interact with the annual cycle and seasonal time scales. Those base states in turn influence the large-scale coupled processes involved with intraseasonal and submonthly time scales, tied to interactions within the tropics and extratropics, and tropical-midlatitude teleconnections. All of these set the base state for processes on the synoptic and mesoscale and regional/local space scales. Events at those relatively short time scales and small space scales may then affect the longer time scale and larger space scale processes in turn, reaching back out to submonthly, intraseasonal, seasonal, annual, TBO, ENSO and decadal. Global coupled models can capture some elements of the decadal, ENSO, TBO, annual and seasonal time scales with the associated global space scales. However, coupled models are less successful at simulating phenomena at subseasonal and shorter time scales with hemispheric and smaller space scales. In the context of the proposed conceptual framework, the synergistic interactions of the time and space scales suggest that a high priority must be placed on improved simulations of all of the time and

  18. Patients with type 2 diabetes benefit from primary care-based disease management: a propensity score matched survival time analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabik, Anna; Büscher, Guido; Thomas, Karsten; Graf, Christian; Müller, Dirk; Stock, Stephanie

    2012-08-01

    This study aimed to assess the impact of a nationwide German diabetes mellitus disease management program (DMP) on survival time and costs in comparison to routine care. The authors conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using routine administration data from Germany's largest sickness fund to identify insured suffering from diabetes in 2002. A total of 95,443 insured with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were born before January 1, 1962 met the defined inclusion criteria, resulting in 19,888 pairs of DMP participants and nonparticipants matched for socioeconomic and health status using propensity score matching methods. This is the first time propensity score matching has been used to evaluate a survival benefit of DMPs. In the time frame analyzed (3 years), mean survival time for the DMP group was 1045 days vs. 985 days for the routine care group (Pdiabetes mellitus in the German Statutory Health Insurance showed a significant benefit in survival time. They also incurred lower costs compared to propensity score matched insured in routine care.

  19. Differences in the timing of cardio-respiratory development determine whether marine gastropod embryos survive or die in hypoxia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rudin-Bitterli, Tabitha S; Spicer, John I; Rundle, Simon D

    2016-04-01

    Physiological plasticity of early developmental stages is a key way by which organisms can survive and adapt to environmental change. We investigated developmental plasticity of aspects of the cardio-respiratory physiology of encapsulated embryos of a marine gastropod, Littorina obtusata, surviving exposure to moderate hypoxia (PO2 =8 kPa) and compared the development of these survivors with that of individuals that died before hatching. Individuals surviving hypoxia exhibited a slower rate of development and altered ontogeny of cardio-respiratory structure and function compared with normoxic controls (PO2 >20 kPa). The onset and development of the larval and adult hearts were delayed in chronological time in hypoxia, but both organs appeared earlier in developmental time and cardiac activity rates were greater. The velum, a transient, 'larval' organ thought to play a role in gas exchange, was larger in hypoxia but developed more slowly (in chronological time), and velar cilia-driven, rotational activity was lower. Despite these effects of hypoxia, 38% of individuals survived to hatching. Compared with those embryos that died during development, these surviving embryos had advanced expression of adult structures, i.e. a significantly earlier occurrence and greater activity of their adult heart and larger shells. In contrast, embryos that died retained larval cardio-respiratory features (the velum and larval heart) for longer in chronological time. Surviving embryos came from eggs with significantly higher albumen provisioning than those that died, suggesting an energetic component for advanced development of adult traits. © 2016. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  20. Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

    2012-01-31

    The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survival of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.

  1. Analysis of individual- and time-specific covariate effects on survival of Serinus serinus in north-eastern Spain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Conroy, M.J.; Senar, J.C.; Domenech, J.

    2002-01-01

    We developed models for the analysis of recapture data for 2678 serins (Serinus serinus) ringed in north-eastern Spain since 1985. We investigated several time- and individual-specific factors as potential predictors of overall mortality and dispersal patterns, and of gender and age differences in these patterns. Time-specific covariates included minimum daily temperature, days below freezing, and abundance of a strong competitor, siskins (Carduelis spinus) during winter, and maximum temperature and rainfall during summer. Individual covariates included body mass (i.e. body condition), and wing length (i.e. flying ability), and interactions between body mass and environmental factors. We found little support of a predictive relationship between environmental factors and survival, but good evidence of relationships between body mass and survival, especially for juveniles. Juvenile survival appears to vary in a curvilinear manner with increasing mass, suggesting that there may exist an optimal mass beyond which increases are detrimental. The mass-survival relationship does seem to be influenced by at least one environmental factor, namely the abundance of wintering siskins. When siskins are abundant, increases in body mass appear to relate strongly to increasing survival. When siskin numbers are average or low the relationship is largely reversed, suggesting that the presence of strong competition mitigates the otherwise largely negative aspects of greater body mass. Wing length in juveniles also appears to be related positively to survival, perhaps largely due to the influence of a few unusually large juveniles with adult-like survival. Further work is needed to test these relationships, ideally under experimentation.

  2. Survival times of patients with a first hip fracture with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angthong, Chayanin; Angthong, Wirana; Harnroongroj, Thos; Naito, Masatoshi; Harnroongroj, Thossart

    2013-01-01

    Survival rates are poorer after a second hip fracture than after a first hip fracture. Previous survival studies have included in-hospital mortality. Excluding in-hospital deaths from the analysis allows survival times to be evaluated in community-based patients. There is still a lack of data regarding the effects of subsequent fractures on survival times after hospital discharge following an initial hip fracture. This study compared the survival times of community-dwelling patients with hip fracture who had or did not have a subsequent major long-bone fracture. Hazard ratios and risk factors for subsequent fractures and mortality rates with and without subsequent fractures were calculated. Of 844 patients with hip fracture from 2000 through 2008, 71 had a subsequent major long-bone fracture and 773 did not. Patients who died of other causes, such as perioperative complications, during hospitalization were excluded. Such exclusion allowed us to determine the effect of subsequent fracture on the survival of community-dwelling individuals after hospital discharge or after the time of the fracture if they did not need hospitalization. Demographic data, causes of death, and mortality rates were recorded. Differences in mortality rates between the patient groups and hazard ratios were calculated. Mortality rates during the first year and from 1 to 5 years after the most recent fracture were 5.6% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients with subsequent fractures, and 4.7% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients without subsequent fractures. These rates did not differ significantly between the groups. Cox regression analysis and calculation of hazard ratios did not show significant differences between patients with subsequent fractures and those without. On univariate and multivariate analyses, age fracture. This study found that survival times did not differ significantly between patients with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures after hip fracture. Therefore, all

  3. Mapping Playgrids for Learning across Space, Time, and Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollett, Ty; Kalir, Jeremiah H.

    2017-01-01

    In this article, we analyze the production of learner-generated playgrids. Playgrids are produced when learners knit together social media tools to participate across settings and scales, accomplish their goals, pursue interests, and make their learning more enjoyable and personally meaningful. Through case study methodology we examine how two…

  4. Spatial scaling of optical fluctuations during substorm-time aurora

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. V. Kozelov

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available A study of statistical features of auroras during substorm activity is presented, emphasizing characteristics which are commonly applied to turbulent flows. Data from all-sky television (TV observations from the Barentsburg observatory (Svalbard have been used. Features of the probability density function (PDF of auroral fluctuations have been examined at different spatial scales. We find that the observed PDFs generally have a non-Gaussian, heavy-tailed shape. The generalized structure function (GSF for the auroral luminosity fluctuations has been analyzed to determine the scaling properties of the higher (up to 6 order moments, and the evolution of the scaling indices during the actual substorm event has been determined. The scaling features obtained can be interpreted as signatures of turbulent motion of the magnetosphere-ionosphere plasma. Relations to previously obtained results of avalanche analysis of the same event, as well as possible implications for the validity of self-organized criticality models and turbulence models of the substorm activity, are discussed.

  5. Changes in channel morphology over human time scales [Chapter 32

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Buffington

    2012-01-01

    Rivers are exposed to changing environmental conditions over multiple spatial and temporal scales, with the imposed environmental conditions and response potential of the river modulated to varying degrees by human activity and our exploitation of natural resources. Watershed features that control river morphology include topography (valley slope and channel...

  6. Impact of Sodium Chloride and Heat on Survival Time of Linguatula Serrata Nymphs in vitro: An Experimental Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Hajimohammadi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Linguatula serrata is a zoonotic parasite, belonging to the class Pentastomida. The major aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of sodium chloride (NaCl and heat on survival time of Linguatula serrata nymphs. Materials & Methods: Thirty nymphs (10 in triplicate were separately transferred to plastic tubes, containing different concentrations of NaCl solution (2%, 5% and 10%. Meanwhile, 30 nymphs in tubes containing Phosphate Buffer Saline (PBS were separately treated by +50°C, +60°C and +72°C. As control group, thirty nymphs were stored in PBS at +4°C. The effects of different conditions on survival time of the nymphs were evaluated by observing their motility in different periods of time. Results: The survival time of the nymphs stored in 10% NaCl solution was too short and all of them were dead after 3 hours. But the other ones maintained in 2% NaCl solution were significantly more resistant (p<0.05 and were survived for 2 days. All the nymphs pertaining to each +60°C and +72°C treatments were found dead after first 5-minute storage interval; the nymphs stored at +50°C died totally after 20 minutes. The nymphs maintained in PBS at +4°C (control group showed the longest survival time (p<0.05; all of them were alive until day 4 and the last ones died on day 34. Conclusion: It is concluded that salting and heating have significant parasiticidal effects on L. serrata nymphs and could be used as disinfecting methods in processing of meat products especially liver. However, refrigeration at +4°C increases the resistance of the nymphs in meat products and therefore might endanger the food safety.

  7. Grasping Deep Time with Scaled Space in Personal Environs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. H.

    2014-01-01

    Deep time comprises the deep past before written history all the way back to the Big Bang as well as the deep future from the time of our grandchildren and beyond the lifetime of our Sun. Numerous installations called time walks or geology paths have previously been designed to communicate...... of modern man, the age of dinosaurs ended at 650 m and the Big Bang is 137 km away. This choice obviously makes mental calculations easy, and all of time fits inside a geographical area of moderate size and so helps the citizen gain ownership to this learning tool and hence to time. The idea was tested...

  8. Evaluation of the Risk of Relapse in Classical Hodgkin Lymphoma at Event-Free Survival Time Points and Survival Comparison With the General Population in British Columbia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hapgood, Greg; Zheng, Yvonne; Sehn, Laurie H; Villa, Diego; Klasa, Richard; Gerrie, Alina S; Shenkier, Tamara; Scott, David W; Gascoyne, Randy D; Slack, Graham W; Parsons, Christina; Morris, James; Pickles, Tom; Connors, Joseph M; Savage, Kerry J

    2016-07-20

    Studies in classical Hodgkin lymphoma (cHL) typically measure the time to events from diagnosis. We evaluated the risk of relapse at event-free survival time points in cHL and compared the risk of death to expected mortality rates in British Columbia (BC). The BC Cancer Agency Lymphoid Cancer Database was screened to identify all patients age 16 to 69 years diagnosed with cHL between 1989 and 2012 treated with the chemotherapy regimen of doxorubicin, bleomycin, vinblastine, and dacarbazine (or equivalent). We compared the observed mortality to the general population using age-, sex-, and calendar period-generated expected mortality rates from BC life-tables. Relative survival was calculated using a conditional approach and expressed as a standardized mortality ratio of observed-to-expected deaths. One thousand four hundred two patients were identified; 749 patients were male (53%), the median age was 32 years, and 68% had advanced-stage disease. The median follow-up time was 8.4 years. Seventy-two percent of relapses occurred within the first 2 years of diagnosis. For all patients, the 5-year risk of relapse from diagnosis was 18.1% but diminished to 5.6% for patients remaining event free at 2 years. For advanced-stage patients who were event free at 2 years, the 5-year risk of relapse was only 7.6%, and for those who were event free at 3 years, it was comparable to that of limited-stage patients (4.1% v 2.5%, respectively; P = .07). Furthermore, international prognostic score ≥ 4 and bulky disease were no longer prognostic in patients who were event free at 1 year. Although the relative survival improved as patients remained in remission, it did not normalize compared with the general population. Patients with cHL who are event free at 2 years have an excellent outcome regardless of baseline prognostic factors. All patients with cHL had an enduring increased risk of death compared with the general population. © 2016 by American Society of Clinical Oncology.

  9. The Impact of Radiation Treatment Time on Survival in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaikh, Talha [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Handorf, Elizabeth A. [Department of Biostatistics, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Murphy, Colin T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mehra, Ranee [Department of Medical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ridge, John A. [Department of Surgical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Galloway, Thomas J., E-mail: Thomas.Galloway@fccc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Purpose: To assess the impact of radiation treatment time (RTT) in head and neck cancers on overall survival (OS) in the era of chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Patients with diagnoses of tongue, hypopharynx, larynx, oropharynx, or tonsil cancer were identified by use of the National Cancer Database. RTT was defined as date of first radiation treatment to date of last radiation treatment. In the definitive setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >56 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <47 days, and standard RTT was defined as 47 to 56 days. In the postoperative setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >49 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <40 days, and standard RTT was defined as 40 to 49 days. We used χ{sup 2} tests to identify predictors of RTT. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare OS among groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used for OS analysis in patients with known comorbidity status. Results: 19,531 patients were included; 12,987 (67%) had a standard RTT, 4,369 (34%) had an accelerated RTT, and 2,165 (11%) had a prolonged RTT. On multivariable analysis, accelerated RTT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.97) was associated with an improved OS, and prolonged RTT (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14-1.37) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT. When the 9,200 (47%) patients receiving definitive concurrent chemoradiation were examined, prolonged RTT (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11-1.50) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT, whereas there was no significant association between accelerated RTT and OS (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.57-1.01). Conclusion: Prolonged RTT is associated with worse OS in patients receiving radiation therapy for head and neck cancer, even in the setting of chemoradiation. Expeditious completion of radiation should continue to be a quality metric for the management of head and neck malignancies.

  10. Global terrestrial biogeochemistry: Perturbations, interactions, and time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braswell, B.H. Jr.

    1996-12-01

    Global biogeochemical processes are being perturbed by human activity, principally that which is associated with industrial activity and expansion of urban and agricultural complexes. Perturbations have manifested themselves at least since the beginning of the 19th Century, and include emissions of CO{sub 2} and other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion, agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen, and direct disruption of ecosystem function through land conversion. These perturbations yield local impacts, but there are also global consequences that are the sum of local-scale influences. Several approaches to understanding the global-scale implications of chemical perturbations to the Earth system are discussed. The lifetime of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is an important concept for understanding the current and future commitment to an altered atmospheric heat budget. The importance of the terrestrial biogeochemistry relative to the lifetime of excess CO{sub 2} is demonstrated using dynamic, aggregated models of the global carbon cycle.

  11. Relationship between Plasma Fibroblast Growth Factor-23 Concentration and Survival Time in Cats with Chronic Kidney Disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Geddes, R F; Elliott, J; Syme, H M

    2015-01-01

    Fibroblast growth factor-23 (FGF-23) and parathyroid hormone (PTH) are commonly increased in cats with azotemic chronic kidney disease (CKD). Both are predictors of survival time in human patients, but these relationships have not previously been examined in the cat. To investigate the relationship between plasma FGF-23 and PTH concentrations at diagnosis of CKD in cats with survival time and with disease progression over 12 months. 214 azotemic, client-owned cats (≥9 years). Retrospective study: Biochemical and urinary variables at diagnosis of azotemic CKD, including plasma FGF-23 and PTH concentrations were assessed as predictors of survival time (all-cause mortality) using Cox regression, and as predictors of CKD progression over 12 months using logistic regression. In the final multivariable Cox regression model, survival was negatively associated with plasma creatinine (P = .002) and FGF-23 concentrations (P = .014), urine protein-to-creatinine ratio (P cats with CKD, independent of other factors including plasma creatinine and phosphate concentrations. Further work is required to assess if FGF-23 contributes directly to CKD progression, but regardless these findings may make FGF-23 a useful biomarker for predicting poorer outcomes in cats with CKD. Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  12. Prognostic value of a decreased tongue strength for survival time in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alexander Geurts; J. Weikamp; J. Hendriks; J. Schelhaas; Bert de Swart

    2012-01-01

    Decreased tongue strength (TS) might herald bulbar involvement in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) well before dysarthria or dysphagia occur, and as such might be prognostic of short survival. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of a decreased TS, in

  13. Prognostic value of decreased tongue strength on survival time in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weikamp, J.G.; Schelhaas, H.J.; Hendriks, J.C.M.; Swart, B.J.M. de; Geurts, A.C.H.

    2012-01-01

    Decreased tongue strength (TS) might herald bulbar involvement in patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) well before dysarthria or dysphagia occur, and as such might be prognostic of short survival. The purpose of this study was to investigate the prognostic value of a decreased TS, in

  14. Genomic prediction of survival time in a population of brown laying hens showing cannibalistic behavior

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Alemu, Setegn W.; Calus, Mario P.L.; Muir, William M.; Peeters, Katrijn; Vereijken, Addie; Bijma, Piter

    2016-01-01

    Background: Mortality due to cannibalism causes both economic and welfare problems in laying hens. To limit mortality due to cannibalism, laying hens are often beak-trimmed, which is undesirable for animal welfare reasons. Genetic selection is an alternative strategy to increase survival and is

  15. Survival of Patients on Hemodialysis and Predictors of Mortality: a Single-Centre Analysis of Time-Dependent Factors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ossareh, Shahrzad; Farrokhi, Farhat; Zebarjadi, Marjan

    2016-11-01

    This study aimed to evaluate the outcome and predictors of survival in hemodialysis patients of Hasheminejad Kidney Center where a comprehensive dialysis care program has been placed since 2004. Data of 560 hemodialysis patients were used to evaluate 9-year survival rates and predictors of mortality. Cox regression models included comorbidities as well as averaged and 6-month-averaged time-dependent values of laboratory findings as independent factors. Survival rates were 91.9%, 66.0%, 46.3%, and 28.5%,  at 1, 3, 5, and 9 years, respectively, in all patients and 90.8%, 61.6%, 42.1%, and 28.0% in 395 incident patients starting hemodialysis after 2004. Adjusted survival models demonstrated age, male sex, diabetes mellitus, cardiovascular disease, and high-risk vascular access as baseline predictors of mortality, as well as averaged low hemoglobin level (hazard ratio [HR], 1.98; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.36 to 2.90) and a single-pool KT/V patients have relatively comparable survival rates with high-profile dialysis centers. Aiming to better achieve the recommended targets, especially hemoglobin and nutritional and bone metabolism factors, should be considered for optimal dialysis outcomes.

  16. Association Between Change in Body Mass Index, Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale Scores, and Survival Among Persons With Parkinson Disease

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Anne-Marie A.; Pérez, Adriana; Wang, Jue; Su, Xiao; Morgan, John; Rajan, Suja S.; Leehey, Maureen A.; Pontone, Gregory M.; Chou, Kelvin L.; Umeh, Chizoba; Mari, Zoltan; Boyd, James

    2017-01-01

    IMPORTANCE Greater body mass index (BMI, calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is associated with improved survival among persons with Huntington disease or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Weight loss is common among persons with Parkinson disease (PD) and is associated with worse quality of life. OBJECTIVE To explore the association between change in BMI, Unified Parkinson’s Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor and total scores, and survival among persons with PD and to test whether there is a positive association between BMI at randomization and survival. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS Secondary analysis (from May 27, 2014, to October 13, 2015) of longitudinal data (3–6 years) from 1673 participants who started the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Exploratory Trials in PD Long-term Study-1 (NET-PD LS-1). This was a double-blind randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial of creatine monohydrate (10 g/d) that was performed at 45 sites throughout the United States and Canada. Participants with early (within 5 years of diagnosis) and treated (receiving dopaminergic therapy) PD were enrolled from March 2007 to May 2010 and followed up until September 2013. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES Change across time in motor UPDRS score, change across time in total UPDRS score, and time to death. Generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of BMI on the change in motor and total UPDRS scores after controlling for covariates. Survival was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models of time to death. A participant’s BMI was measured at randomization, and BMI trajectory groups were classified according to whether participants experienced weight loss (“decreasing BMI”), weight stability (“stable BMI”), or weight gain (“increasing BMI”) during the study. RESULTS Of the 1673 participants (mean [SD] age, 61.7 [9.6] years; 1074 [64.2%] were male), 158 (9.4%) experienced weight loss

  17. Determinants of treatment waiting times for head and neck cancer in the Netherlands and their relation to survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Harten, Michel C; Hoebers, Frank J P; Kross, Kenneth W; van Werkhoven, Erik D; van den Brekel, Michiel W M; van Dijk, Boukje A C

    2015-03-01

    Waiting to start treatment has been shown to be associated with tumor progression and upstaging in head and neck squamous cell carcinomas (HNSCCs). This diminishes the chance of cure and might lead to unnecessary mortality. We investigated the association between waiting times and survival in the Netherlands and assessed which factors were associated to longer waiting times. Patient (age, sex, socioeconomic status (SES), tumor (site, stage) and treatment (type, of institute of diagnosis/treatment) characteristics for patients with HNSCC who underwent treatment were extracted from the Netherlands Cancer Registry (NCR) for 2005-2011. Waiting time was defined as the number of days between histopathological diagnosis and start of treatment. Univariable and multivariable Cox regression was used to evaluate survival. In total, 13,140 patients were included, who had a median waiting time of 37days. Patients who were more likely to wait longer were men, patients with a low SES, oropharynx tumors, stage IV tumors, patients to be treated with radiotherapy or chemoradiation, and patients referred for treatment to a Head and Neck Oncology Center (HNOC) from another hospital. The 5-year overall survival was 58% for all patients. Our multivariable Cox regression model showed that longer waiting time, was significantly related to a higher hazard of dying (p<0.0001). This is the first large population-based study showing that longer waiting time for surgery, radiotherapy or chemoradiation is a significant negative prognostic factor for HNSCC patients. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. From dinosaurs to modern bird diversity: extending the time scale of adaptive radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moen, Daniel; Morlon, Hélène

    2014-05-01

    What explains why some groups of organisms, like birds, are so species rich? And what explains their extraordinary ecological diversity, ranging from large, flightless birds to small migratory species that fly thousand of kilometers every year? These and similar questions have spurred great interest in adaptive radiation, the diversification of ecological traits in a rapidly speciating group of organisms. Although the initial formulation of modern concepts of adaptive radiation arose from consideration of the fossil record, rigorous attempts to identify adaptive radiation in the fossil record are still uncommon. Moreover, most studies of adaptive radiation concern groups that are less than 50 million years old. Thus, it is unclear how important adaptive radiation is over temporal scales that span much larger portions of the history of life. In this issue, Benson et al. test the idea of a "deep-time" adaptive radiation in dinosaurs, compiling and using one of the most comprehensive phylogenetic and body-size datasets for fossils. Using recent phylogenetic statistical methods, they find that in most clades of dinosaurs there is a strong signal of an "early burst" in body-size evolution, a predicted pattern of adaptive radiation in which rapid trait evolution happens early in a group's history and then slows down. They also find that body-size evolution did not slow down in the lineage leading to birds, hinting at why birds survived to the present day and diversified. This paper represents one of the most convincing attempts at understanding deep-time adaptive radiations.

  19. The dwell time and survival rates of PICC placement after balloon angioplasty in patient with unexpected central venous obstruction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Ki Hyun; Park, Sang Woo; Chang, Il Soo; Yim, Younghee

    2016-09-21

    To evaluate the dwell time and actual survival rates of peripherally inserted central catheter (PICC) placements after balloon angioplasty in patients with unexpected central venous obstructions. Data were obtained on all PICC insertions performed in a tertiary care hospital from August 2008 to December 2013. Thirty-five PICCs attempted after balloon angioplasty in 25 patients (15 male and 10 female patients; mean age, 63 years). Fisher's exact test was used to test for differences in reasons for catheter removal between the groups of patients with stenosis or obstructions. Survival curves for PICC dwell time of all patients, stenosis group, and obstruction group were generated separately using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and compared with log-rank tests. There were a total 21 obstructions and 14 stenoses. The overall technical success rate of PICC placement after balloon angioplasty was 94% (33 of 35 procedures). The PICC dwell time was determined for 27 PICCs and ranged from 4 to 165 days (mean, 39.6 days). Among all PICCs, 16 were removed early, resulting in an actual survival rate of 40.7% (11 of 27 PICCs). There were no significant differences in reasons for catheter removal between the stenosis and obstruction groups (p = 0.24). The dwell times for both groups were not significantly different by Kaplan-Meier analysis (p = 0.54). PICC placement after balloon angioplasty is a good treatment option for patients with unexpected central venous lesions, and offers high technical success rates. The actual survival rate was relatively lower (40.7%) than that from previous studies.

  20. Long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children is not associated with decreased survival or with worse neurological outcome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Francois Brasme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma, one of the most frequent brain tumors in children, is the source of painful remorse and sometimes lawsuits. We analyzed its consequences for tumor stage, survival, and sequelae. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study included all cases of pediatric medulloblastoma from a region of France between 1990 and 2005. We collected the demographic, clinical, and tumor data and analyzed the relations between the interval from symptom onset until diagnosis, initial disease stage, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. RESULTS: The median interval from symptom onset until diagnosis for the 166 cases was 65 days (interquartile range 31-121, range 3-457. A long interval (defined as longer than the median was associated with a lower frequency of metastasis in the univariate and multivariate analyses and with a larger tumor volume, desmoplastic histology, and longer survival in the univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for confounding factors. The time to diagnosis was significantly associated with IQ score among survivors. No significant relation was found between the time to diagnosis and neurological disability. In the 62 patients with metastases, a long prediagnosis interval was associated with a higher T stage, infiltration of the fourth ventricle floor, and incomplete surgical resection; it nonetheless did not influence survival significantly in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: We found complex and often inverse relations between time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children and initial severity factors, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. This interval appears due more to the nature of the tumor and its progression than to parental or medical factors. These conclusions should be taken into account in the information provided to parents and in expert assessments produced for malpractice claims.

  1. Effect of length biased sampling of unobserved sojourn times on the survival distribution when disease is screen detected.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kafadar, Karen; Prorok, Philip C

    2009-07-20

    Data can arise as a length-biased sample rather than as a random sample; e.g. a sample of patients in hospitals or of network cable lines (experimental units with longer stays or longer lines have greater likelihoods of being sampled). The distribution arising from a single length-biased sampling (LBS) time has been derived (e.g. (The Statistical Analysis of Discrete Time Events. Oxford Press: London, 1972)) and applies when the observed outcome relates to the random variable subjected to LBS. Zelen (Breast Cancer: Trends in Research and Treatment. Raven Press: New York, 1976; 287-301) noted that cases of disease detected from a screening program likewise form a length-biased sample among all cases, since longer sojourn times afford greater likelihoods of being screen detected. In contrast to the samples on hospital stays and cable lines, however, the length-biased sojourns (preclinical durations) cannot be observed, although their subsequent clinical durations (survival times) are. This article quantifies the effect of LBS of the sojourn times (or pre-clinical durations) on the distribution of the observed clinical durations when cases undergo periodic screening for the early detection of disease. We show that, when preclinical and clinical durations are positively correlated, the mean, median, and quartiles of the distribution of the clinical duration from screen-detected cases can be substantially inflated-even in the absence of any benefit on survival from the screening procedure. Screening studies that report mean survival time need to take account of the fact that, even in the absence of any real benefit, the mean survival among cases in the screen-detected group will be longer than that among interval cases or among cases that arise in the control arm, above and beyond lead time bias, simply by virtue of the LBS phenomenon

  2. [Relationships between Serum Albumin and Urea Level and the Clinical Pathological Characteristics and Survival Time in Patients with Lung Cancer].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yalun; Li, Lei; Zhang, Li; Li, Weimin

    2017-03-20

    Lung cancer is the most common malignancy and is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Thus, this disease severely threatens human health. This study aims to identify the relationships between serum albumin and urea level and the clinical pathological characteristics and survival time in patients with lung cancer. A total of 1,098 patients with lung cancer were diagnosed by pathology and tested the serum albumin and urea level in West China Hospital of Sichuan University during January 2008 to December 2013. According to the levels of albumin and urea, patients were divided into the normal level group (negative group) and abnormal level group (positive group). The differences of patients' clinical pathological characteristics and survival time in the two groups were analyzed. Differences in age, sex, histological classification, liver metastasis and pleural metastasis were statistically significant between the two groups of serum albumin (Purea. In different histological classification between the two groups of serum albumin, the median survival period of squamous cell carcinoma was 36 months and 19 monthes, adenocarcinoma was 35 months and 15 monthes, the abnormal group were all significantly lower than those in the normal group. The median survival period was no significant difference between the two groups of urea. The level of serum albumin is an important indicator for prognosis.

  3. Meta-analysis of the effects of beta blocker on survival time in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, Chel Hun; Song, Taejong; Kim, Tae Hyun; Choi, Jun Kuk; Park, Jin-Young; Yoon, Aera; Lee, Yoo-Young; Kim, Tae-Joong; Bae, Duk-Soo; Lee, Jeong-Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie

    2014-07-01

    This study was to elucidate the potential benefit of beta blockers on cancer survival. We comprehensively searched PubMed, Embase, and the Cochrane Library from their inception to April 2013. Two authors independently screened and reviewed the eligibility of each study and coded the participants, treatment, and outcome characteristics. The primary outcomes were overall survival (OS) and disease-free survival (DFS). Twelve studies published between 1993 and 2013 were included in the final analysis. Four papers reported results from 10 independent groups, resulting in a total of 18 comparisons based on data obtained from 20,898 subjects. Effect sizes (hazard ratios, HR) were heterogeneous, and random-effects models were used in the analyses. The meta-analysis demonstrated that beta blocker use is associated with improved OS (HR 0.79; 95 % CI 0.67-0.93; p = 0.004) and DFS (HR 0.69; 95 % CI 0.53-0.91; p = 0.009). Although statistically not significant, the effect size was greater in patients with low-stage cancer or cancer treated primarily with surgery than in patients with high-stage cancer or cancer treated primarily without surgery (HR 0.60 vs. 0.78, and 0.60 vs. 0.80, respectively). Although only two study codes were analyzed, the studies using nonselective beta blockers showed that there was no overall effect on OS (HR 0.52, 95 % CI 0.09-3.04). This meta-analysis provides evidence that beta blocker use can be associated with the prolonged survival of cancer patients, especially patients with early-stage cancer treated primarily with surgery.

  4. Fluid Regulation and Time Course of Erythropoietin during Multifactorial Strain of Austrian Special Forces Survival Training

    Science.gov (United States)

    2001-03-01

    It seems that EPO production and release is diminished by nutritional factors, i.e. mainly caloric intake, during prolonged physical strain. In the...sign for a haemolytic anaemia with impaired erythropoiesis (20) which would be in line with decreased EPO values found during the survival training...total body iron stores. The classical biochemical constellation of an haemolytic anaemia might be misleading under the described conditions. The body

  5. Bayesian Variable Selection in High Dimensional Survival Time Cancer Genomic Datasets using Nonlocal Priors

    OpenAIRE

    Nikooienejad, Amir; Wang, Wenyi; Johnson, Valen E.

    2017-01-01

    Variable selection in high dimensional cancer genomic studies has become very popular in the past decade, due to the interest in discovering significant genes pertinent to a specific cancer type. Censored survival data is the main data structure in such studies and performing variable selection for such data type requires certain methodology. With recent developments in computational power, Bayesian methods have become more attractive in the context of variable selection. In this article we i...

  6. Managing hospitals in turbulent times: do organizational changes improve hospital survival?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S Y; Alexander, J A

    1999-10-01

    To examine (1) the degree to which organizational changes affected hospital survival; (2) whether core and peripheral organizational changes affected hospital survival differently; and (3) how simultaneous organizational changes affected hospital survival. AHA Hospital Surveys, the Area Resource File, and the AHA Hospital Guides, Part B: Multihospital Systems. The study employed a longitudinal panel design. We followed changes in all community hospitals in the continental United States from 1981 through 1994. The dependent variable, hospital closure, was examined as a function of multiple changes in a hospital's core and peripheral structures as well as the hospital's organizational and environmental characteristics. Cox regression models were used to test the expectations that core changes increased closure risk while peripheral changes decreased such risk, and that simultaneous core and peripheral changes would lead to higher risk of closure. Results indicated more peripheral than core changes in community hospitals. Overall, findings contradicted our expectations. Change in specialty, a core change, was beneficial for hospitals, because it reduced closure risk. The two most frequent peripheral changes, downsizing and leadership change, were positively associated with closure. Simultaneous organizational changes displayed a similar pattern: multiple core changes reduced closure risk, while multiple peripheral changes increased the risk. These patterns held regardless of the level of uncertainty in hospital environments. Organizational changes are not all beneficial for hospitals, suggesting that hospital leaders should be both cautious and selective in their efforts to turn their hospitals around.

  7. A race against time: can CO-OPs and provider start-ups survive in the health insurance marketplaces?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggbeer, Bill

    2015-12-01

    > The Affordable Care Act's state and federal health insurance marketplaces, designed to provide affordable insurance coverage to individuals and small groups, are proving hostile territory to new market entrants. Efforts to inject competition into the marketplaces are being challenged by the wide-scale withdrawal o consumer-operated and oriented plans (CO-OPs). Meanwhile, premiums appear likely to increase for consumers as plans seek to balance medical losses. Flaws in the "Three R's" (reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk-adjustment) program are viewed as a threat to the survival of CO-OPs and start-ups.

  8. Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher D Hudson

    Full Text Available The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd's incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period, PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd's lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd rather than individual level.

  9. Probing single-photon ionization on the attosecond time scale

    CERN Document Server

    Klünder, K; Gisselbrecht, M; Fordell, T; Swoboda, M; Guénot, D; Johnsson, P; Caillat, J; Mauritsson, J; Maquet, A; Taïeb, R; L'Huillier, A

    2010-01-01

    We study photoionization of argon atoms excited by attosecond pulses using an interferometric measurement technique. We measure the difference in time delays between electrons emitted from the $3s^2$ and from the $3p^6$ shell, at different excitation energies ranging from 32 to 42 eV. The determination of single photoemission time delays requires to take into account the measurement process, involving the interaction with a probing infrared field. This contribution can be estimated using an universal formula and is found to account for a substantial fraction of the measured delay.

  10. Coherent spectroscopies on ultrashort time and length scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schneider C.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Three spectroscopic techniques are presented that provide simultaneous spatial and temporal resolution: modified confocal microscopy with heterodyne detection, space-time-resolved spectroscopy using coherent control concepts, and coherent two-dimensional nano-spectroscopy. Latest experimental results are discussed.

  11. Dynamic modelling of heavy metals - time scales and target loads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Posch, M.; Vries, de W.

    2009-01-01

    Over the past decade steady-state methods have been developed to assess critical loads of metals avoiding long-term risks in view of food quality and eco-toxicological effects on organisms in soils and surface waters. However, dynamic models are needed to estimate the times involved in attaining a

  12. Perception of short time scale intervals in a hypnotic virtuoso

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noreika, Valdas; Falter, Christine M.; Arstila, Valtteri; Wearden, John H.; Kallio, Sakari

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies showed that hypnotized individuals underestimate temporal intervals in the range of several seconds to tens of minutes. However, no previous work has investigated whether duration perception is equally disorderly when shorter time intervals are probed. In this study, duration

  13. Time Scales in the JPL and CfA Ephemerides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standish, E. M.

    1998-01-01

    Over the past decades, the IAU has repeatedly attempted to correct its definition of the basic fundamental argument used in the emphemerides. Finally, they have defined a time system which is physically possible, according to the accepted standard theory of gravitation.

  14. Effects of interspecific competition, predation, and their interaction on survival and development time of immature Anopheles quadrimaculatus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Knight, Tiffany M; Chase, Jonathan M; Goss, Charles W; Knight, Jennifer J

    2004-12-01

    We examined the effect of predation by the backswimmer (Notonecta undulata; Hemiptera: Notonectidae), competition by zooplankton and snails, and both predation and competition on the survival and development time of larval Anopheles quadrimaculatus mosquitoes in experimental mesocosms. We found that both predation and interspecific competition greatly reduced the survivorship of larvae and the number of larvae emerging into adulthood. Treatments with both predators and competitors had fewer larvae transitioning among instars and into adulthood but not in an additive way. In addition, mosquito larvae in the presence of predators and competitors took two days longer to emerge than where predators and competitions were absent. Our work provides evidence that biotic interactions, such as predation and competition, can strongly regulate the number of mosquito larvae by reducing the number of larvae that survive through instars and to emergence and by increasing the generation time.

  15. Time and space scales for measuring urban growth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Denise Pumain

    2002-07-01

    Full Text Available After the last two centuries of intense and unprecedented urbanization, we need a clear understanding of the ongoing trends of urban growth for a better insight of their possible future. Two main processes are analysed : first, the inter-urban concentration of population, with its consequence of a relative decline of the smallest towns ; second, urban sprawl, including a shift of population density in the central part of cities towards their peripheries. Using recent data on population and employment in French urban functional areas, we show that the spatial and temporal framework in which urban growth is computed may considerably alter the results and their consecutive interpretation. When the city is defined as a continuously built-up area (the French agglomération, the measurement of concentration of urban population does not give the same result than when using as a definition the spatial scale of functional urban areas (the French aires urbaines. Similarly, the analyse of the spatial redistribution of population between urban centres, close and outer suburbs are reconsidered under trends of a longer duration has been given very different results, according to the way of defining cities and spaces.

  16. Rat Strains Bred for Low and High Aerobic Running Capacity do not Differ in Their Survival Time to Hemorrhage

    Science.gov (United States)

    2009-12-01

    maximal oxygen consumption ( Vo2max ) was 12% greater during normoxia and 20% greater during hypoxia in the HCR vs LCR (12). This enhanced Vo2max ...mitochondria) rather than differences in cardiac output, and also occurred in the absence of differences in oxygen delivery. By generation 15, VO2max ...survival time of HCR and LCR lines to the same controlled hemorrhage. We hypothesized that a strain with improved VO2max (i.e., HCR) would demonstrate an

  17. Effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to lethal whole-body. gamma. irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onoue, M.; Uchida, K.; Yokokura, T.; Takahashi, T.; Mutai, M.

    1981-11-01

    The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body ..gamma.. irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice.

  18. Comparison of current injury scales for survival chance estimation: an evaluation comparing the predictive performance of the ISS, NISS, and AP scores in a Dutch local trauma registration.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Frankema, S.P.; Steyerberg, E.W.; Edwards, M.J.R.; Vugt, A.B. van

    2005-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Prediction of survival chances for trauma patients is a basic requirement for evaluation of trauma care. The current methods are the Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) and A Severity Characterization of Trauma (ASCOT). Scales for scoring injury severity are part of these methods.

  19. Long time scale simulation of a grain boundary in copper

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A.; Henkelman, G.; Schiøtz, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    A general, twisted and tilted, grain boundary in copper has been simulated using the adaptive kinetic Monte Carlo method to study the atomistic structure of the non-crystalline region and the mechanism of annealing events that occur at low temperature. The simulated time interval spanned 67 mu s...... at 135 K. Similar final configurations were obtained starting from different initial structures: (i) by bringing the two grains into contact without any intermediate layer, and (ii) by inserting an amorphous region between the grains. The results obtained were analyzed with a radial distribution function...

  20. Model Reduction Using Multiple Time Scales in Stochastic Gene Regulatory Networks

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Peles, Slaven; Munsky, Brian; Khammash, Mustafa

    2006-01-01

    .... Multiple time scales in mathematical models often lead to serious computational difficulties, such as numerical stiffness in the case of differential equations or excessively redundant Monte Carlo...

  1. Global Exponential Stability of Delayed Cohen-Grossberg BAM Neural Networks with Impulses on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fei Yu

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the theory of calculus on time scales, the homeomorphism theory, Lyapunov functional method, and some analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM neural networks with distributed delays and impulses on time scales. This is the first time applying the time-scale calculus theory to unify the discrete-time and continuous-time Cohen-Grossberg BAM neural network with impulses under the same framework.

  2. Microcomputer interface board for time-resolved multichannel scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cobb, Cathy L.; Martin, Richard M.

    1987-08-01

    A low-cost multichannel scaler and signal-averaging system with user selectable channel widths ranging from 1 to 255 μs has been developed for molecular beam time-of-flight (TOF) experiments. It has the ability to collect up to 255 channels and has a programmable delay of up to 0.65 s. On-board logic can accommodate a 15-MHz count rate. Completely contained on a 7×2 3/4 -in. Apple II prototyping board (with the exception of a 5-A, 5-V external power supply), the interface fits into a peripheral port of the Apple II. The interface was tested by measuring the TOF distribution of Ar metastables from a supersonic nozzle beam source.

  3. Relationships among the cervical mucus urea and acetone, accuracy of insemination timing, and sperm survival in Holstein cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beran, J; Stádník, L; Ducháček, J; Okrouhlá, M; Doležalová, M; Kadlecová, V; Ptáček, M

    2013-11-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationships among urea and acetone content in cows' cervical mucus (CM), its crystallization type (CT) and sperm survival (SS) after timed AI. Samples of CM were collected from 192 Holstein cows treated by Ovsynch(®) protocol. Analysis of the urea and acetone content for identification of the metabolic status, the arborization test for evaluation of insemination timing and the short-term heat test of SS for assessment of its suitability as a biological matrix were performed. The data set was analyzed by the GLM procedure using SAS(®). The results documented the existence of substantial differences in individual response to the Ovsynch(®) protocol causing insemination of 55.2% cows at an inappropriate time. The urea content was found as a possible indicator of a cow's metabolism and/or of insemination timing, concentrations of less than 500 mg/L corresponded (Pacetone content on SS were determined. The greatest values of SS were detected in cows with an expected response to precisely timed oestrus documented by the corresponding CT. Greater values of urea (>260 mg/L) and acetone (>5mg/L) negatively affected SS as well (P<0.05-0.01). The results confirmed that the accuracy of insemination timing can be affected by the metabolism intensity, just as CM quality directly influences sperm survival. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  4. From points to patterns - Transferring point scale groundwater measurements to catchment scale response patterns using time series modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rinderer, M.; McGlynn, B. L.; van Meerveld, I. H. J.

    2015-12-01

    Detailed groundwater measurements across a catchment can provide information on subsurface stormflow generation and hydrologic connectivity of hillslopes to the stream network. However, groundwater dynamics can be highly variable in space and time, especially in steep headwater catchments. Prediction of groundwater response patterns at non-monitored sites requires transferring point scale information to the catchment scale through analysis of continuous groundwater level time series and their relationships to covariates such as topographic indices or landscape position. We applied time series analysis to a 4 year dataset of continuous groundwater level data for 51 wells distributed across a 20 ha pre-alpine headwater catchment in Switzerland to address the following questions: 1) Is the similarity or difference between the groundwater time series related to landscape position? 2) How does the relationship between groundwater dynamics and landscape position change across long (seasonal) and shorter (event) time scales and varying antecedent wetness conditions? 3) How can time series modeling be used to predict groundwater responses at non-monitored sites? We employed hierarchical clustering of the observed groundwater time series using both dynamic time warping and correlation based distance matrices. Based on the common site characteristics of the members of each cluster, the time series models were transferred to all non-monitored sites. This categorical approach provided maps of spatio-temporal groundwater dynamics across the entire catchment. We further developed a continuous approach based on process-based hydrological modeling and water table dynamic similarity. We suggest that continuous measurements at representative points and subsequent time series analysis can shed light into groundwater dynamics at the landscape scale and provide new insights into space-time patterns of hydrologic connectivity and streamflow generation.

  5. Fine Scale Baleen Whale Behavior Observed Via Tagging Over Daily Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2015-09-30

    computer lab via Cat5e cables. To assist in finding whales, we had a DMON-equipped Slocum glider and a DMON-equipped wave glider doing passive acoustic...surveys in the Great South Channel before and during the cruise. The gliders are capable of detecting 3 the calls of right, fin, sei, and humpback...South Channel as well as small-scale surveys in the vicinity of the gliders when right/sei whale calls were acoustically detected. Despite all of

  6. Associations of red and processed meat with survival after colorectal cancer and differences according to timing of dietary assessment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Prudence R; Jansen, Lina; Walter, Viola; Kloor, Matthias; Roth, Wilfried; Bläker, Hendrik; Chang-Claude, Jenny; Brenner, Hermann; Hoffmeister, Michael

    2016-01-01

    Little is known about the prognostic impact of red and processed meat intake or about changes in consumption after a diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC). We investigated associations of baseline red and processed meat with survival outcomes and explored changes in intake among CRC survivors 5 y after diagnosis. A total of 3122 patients diagnosed with CRC between 2003 and 2010 were followed for a median of 4.8 y [DACHS (Darmkrebs: Chancen der Verhütung durch Screening) study]. Patients provided information on diet and other factors in standardized questionnaires at baseline and at the 5-y follow-up. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to estimate HRs and 95% CIs. Among patients with stage I-III CRC, baseline red and processed meat intake was not associated with overall (>1 time/d compared with processed meat at the 5-y follow-up than at baseline (concordance rate: 39%; κ-value: 0.10; 95% CI: 0.07, 0.13). Our findings suggest that baseline red and processed meat intake is not associated with poorer survival among patients with CRC. The potential interaction with KRAS mutation status warrants further evaluation. Major changes in consumption measured at the 5-y follow-up may have had an impact on our survival estimates. © 2016 American Society for Nutrition.

  7. Diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia: prevalence over time and impact on long-term survival after liver transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Parekh, J; Corley, D A; Feng, S

    2012-08-01

    With increasing short-term survival, the transplant community has turned its focus to delineating the impact of medical comorbidities on long-term outcomes. Unfortunately, conditions such as diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia are difficult to track and often managed outside of the transplant center by primary care providers. We collaborated with Kaiser Permanente Northern California to create a database of 598 liver transplant recipients, which incorporates diagnostic codes along with laboratory and pharmacy data. Specifically, we determined the prevalence of diabetes, hypertension and hyperlipidemia both before and after transplant and evaluated the influence of disease duration as a time-dependent covariate on posttransplant survival. The prevalence of these comorbidities increased steadily from the time of transplant to 7 years after transplant. The estimated risk for all-cause mortality (hazard ratio = 1.07 per year increment, 95% CI 1.01-1.13, p hyperlipidemia. Greater attention to management of diabetes may mitigate its negative impact on long-term survival in liver transplant recipients. © Copyright 2012 The American Society of Transplantation and the American Society of Transplant Surgeons.

  8. Marine Dispersal Scales Are Congruent over Evolutionary and Ecological Time

    KAUST Repository

    Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-12-15

    The degree to which offspring remain near their parents or disperse widely is critical for understanding population dynamics, evolution, and biogeography, and for designing conservation actions. In the ocean, most estimates suggesting short-distance dispersal are based on direct ecological observations of dispersing individuals, while indirect evolutionary estimates often suggest substantially greater homogeneity among populations. Reconciling these two approaches and their seemingly competing perspectives on dispersal has been a major challenge. Here we show for the first time that evolutionary and ecological measures of larval dispersal can closely agree by using both to estimate the distribution of dispersal distances. In orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) populations in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, we found that evolutionary dispersal kernels were 17 km (95% confidence interval: 12–24 km) wide, while an exhaustive set of direct larval dispersal observations suggested kernel widths of 27 km (19–36 km) or 19 km (15–27 km) across two years. The similarity between these two approaches suggests that ecological and evolutionary dispersal kernels can be equivalent, and that the apparent disagreement between direct and indirect measurements can be overcome. Our results suggest that carefully applied evolutionary methods, which are often less expensive, can be broadly relevant for understanding ecological dispersal across the tree of life.

  9. Applied the additive hazard model to predict the survival time of patient with diffuse large B- cell lymphoma and determine the effective genes, using microarray data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arefa Jafarzadeh Kohneloo

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available Background: Recent studies have shown that effective genes on survival time of cancer patients play an important role as a risk factor or preventive factor. Present study was designed to determine effective genes on survival time for diffuse large B-cell lymphoma patients and predict the survival time using these selected genes. Materials & Methods: Present study is a cohort study was conducted on 40 patients with diffuse large B-cell lymphoma. For these patients, 2042 gene expression was measured. In order to predict the survival time, the composition of the semi-parametric additive survival model with two gene selection methods elastic net and lasso were used. Two methods were evaluated by plotting area under the ROC curve over time and calculating the integral of this curve. Results: Based on our findings, the elastic net method identified 10 genes, and Lasso-Cox method identified 7 genes. GENE3325X increased the survival time (P=0.006, Whereas GENE3980X and GENE377X reduced the survival time (P=0.004. These three genes were selected as important genes in both methods. Conclusion: This study showed that the elastic net method outperformed the common Lasso method in terms of predictive power. Moreover, apply the additive model instead Cox regression and using microarray data is usable way for predict the survival time of patients.

  10. Wind speed during migration influences the survival, timing of breeding, and productivity of a neotropical migrant, Setophaga petechia.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Drake

    Full Text Available Over the course of the annual cycle, migratory bird populations can be impacted by environmental conditions in regions separated by thousands of kilometers. We examine how climatic conditions during discrete periods of the annual cycle influence the demography of a nearctic-neotropical migrant population of yellow warblers (Setophaga petechia, that breed in western Canada and overwinter in Mexico. We demonstrate that wind conditions during spring migration are the best predictor of apparent annual adult survival, male arrival date, female clutch initiation date and, via these timing effects, annual productivity. We find little evidence that conditions during the wintering period influence breeding phenology and apparent annual survival. Our study emphasizes the importance of climatic conditions experienced by migrants during the migratory period and indicates that geography may play a role in which period most strongly impacts migrant populations.

  11. From dinosaurs to modern bird diversity: extending the time scale of adaptive radiation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Moen

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available What explains why some groups of organisms, like birds, are so species rich? And what explains their extraordinary ecological diversity, ranging from large, flightless birds to small migratory species that fly thousand of kilometers every year? These and similar questions have spurred great interest in adaptive radiation, the diversification of ecological traits in a rapidly speciating group of organisms. Although the initial formulation of modern concepts of adaptive radiation arose from consideration of the fossil record, rigorous attempts to identify adaptive radiation in the fossil record are still uncommon. Moreover, most studies of adaptive radiation concern groups that are less than 50 million years old. Thus, it is unclear how important adaptive radiation is over temporal scales that span much larger portions of the history of life. In this issue, Benson et al. test the idea of a "deep-time" adaptive radiation in dinosaurs, compiling and using one of the most comprehensive phylogenetic and body-size datasets for fossils. Using recent phylogenetic statistical methods, they find that in most clades of dinosaurs there is a strong signal of an "early burst" in body-size evolution, a predicted pattern of adaptive radiation in which rapid trait evolution happens early in a group's history and then slows down. They also find that body-size evolution did not slow down in the lineage leading to birds, hinting at why birds survived to the present day and diversified. This paper represents one of the most convincing attempts at understanding deep-time adaptive radiations.

  12. Relationships between Serum Albumin and Urea Level and the Clinical Pathological Characteristics and Survival Time in Patients with Lung Cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yalun LI

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available Background and objective Lung cancer is the most common malignancy and is the leading cause of cancer-related death worldwide. Thus, this disease severely threatens human health. This study aims to identify the relationships between serum albumin and urea level and the clinical pathological characteristics and survival time in patients with lung cancer. Methods A total of 1,098 patients with lung cancer were diagnosed by pathology and tested the serum albumin and urea level in West China Hospital of Sichuan University during January 2008 to December 2013. According to the levels of albumin and urea, patients were divided into the normal level group (negative group and abnormal level group (positive group. The differences of patients' clinical pathological characteristics and survival time in the two groups were analyzed. Results Differences in age, sex, histological classification, liver metastasis and pleural metastasis were statistically significant between the two groups of serum albumin (P<0.05. Differences in age, intrapulmonary metastasis of 312 patients of squamous cell carcinoma and differences in age, sex, stages, pleural metastasis of 612 patients of adenocarcinoma between the two groups of serum albumin (P<0.05. There were no significant differences between the two groups of urea. In different histological classification between the two groups of serum albumin, the median survival period of squamous cell carcinoma was 36 months and 19 monthes, adenocarcinoma was 35 months and 15 monthes, the abnormal group were all significantly lower than those in the normal group. The median survival period was no significant difference between the two groups of urea. Conclusion The level of serum albumin is an important indicator for prognosis.

  13. Large-Scale Production of Adeno-Associated Viral Vector Serotype-9 Carrying the Human Survival Motor Neuron Gene.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rashnonejad, Afrooz; Chermahini, Gholamhossein Amini; Li, Shaoyong; Ozkinay, Ferda; Gao, Guangping

    2016-01-01

    Recombinant AAV (rAAV) vectors are a suitable vector for gene therapy studies because of desired characteristics such as low immunogenicity, transfection of non-dividing and dividing cells, and long-term expression of the transgene. In this study, the large-scale production of single stranded (ss) and self-complementary (sc) AAV9 carrying the human survival motor neuron (SMN) gene (AAV9-SMN) suitable for in vivo gene therapy studies of SMA was described. SMN cDNA has been cloned into pAAV-CB6-PI and pAAVsc-CB6-PI with and without its specific UTRs, respectively. Both plasmids bear CMV enhancer/beta-actin (CB) promoter, CMV IE enhancer, and polyadenylation signal sequences. 2.5 μg of constructed pAAV-CB6-PI-SMN and pAAVsc-CB6-PI-SMN cause to, respectively, 4.853- and 2.321-fold increases in SMN protein levels in transfected cells compared to untransfected cells. Ss and scAAV9-SMN vectors were also produced from these plasmids by transient transfection of HEK293 cells using CaCl2 solution. The silver staining and electron microscopy analysis demonstrated good quality of both isolated vectors, ssAAV9-SMN and scAAV9-SMN, with the titers of 2.00E+13 and 1.00E+13 GC/ml. The results of this study show that, the plasmid containing UTR elements causes to twice more SMN gene expression in transfected cells. The quality control results show that both produced ss and scAAV9-SMN are suitable for in vivo studies.

  14. Mars Polar Motion at Short Time-Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dehant, V. M.; de Viron, O.; Karatekin, O.; van Hoolst, T.

    2005-12-01

    The rotation of Mars is not constant in time and presents irregularities that are mostly associated with the seasonal CO2 mass exchange between Mars' atmosphere and polar caps. This large mass redistribution (about a third of the total atmospheric mass is considered to be exchanged) induces variations in Mars' rotation speed as well as in polar motion. The effects of the atmosphere on the rotation can be estimated by using the angular momentum approach: because of conservation of angular momentum of Mars (solid body and atmosphere), considered as isolated, any change in the angular momentum of the atmosphere is associated with an opposite change in the angular momentum of the solid body of the planet. Mars' polar motion is computed for Mars models with three homogeneous layers (solid inner core, fluid outer core, and mantle) for different excitation causes (atmosphere, ice caps, and quakes). We estimate the amplitude of the polar motion resulting from atmospheric excitation, for a reasonable interval of damping factor values, for the two polar motion normal modes, i.e. the Chandler wobble and the Inner Core wobble. We show how the amplitude of the CW excited by the atmospheric noise can be interpreted in terms of anelasticity of the Martian mantle, through the CW damping factor. The damping is estimated from the observation of the mode itself under hypotheses on the type of forcing noise. We show that the signature of the inner core in the polar motion is very small, and is unlikely to be detected with the present observational precision. We further investigate the possibility to excite these normal modes through Marsquakes, and show that the predicted quake moments are not large enough to excite polar motion to an observable level. The analysis of polar motion, and in particular the determination of its normal mode components, is promising because normal mode periods and amplitudes are directly related to the properties of the deep interior. The precision needed

  15. Freshwater flushing time scales of the Vashishti Estuary, west coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    DineshKumar, P.K.; Sarma, R.V.; Zingde, M.D.

    Results are presented for the Vashishti estuary, Kerala, India to evaluate its freshwater flushing time scales based on 8 sets of observations of longitudinal salinity distributions. The results of the flushing time using the fraction of freshwater...

  16. Periodic solutions for a food chain system with Monod-Haldane functional response on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kejun Zhuang

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available In this article, we study a three species food chain model on time scales, with Monod-Haldane functional response and time delay. With the help of coincidence degree theory, we establish the existence of periodic solutions.

  17. Scale (in)variance in a unified diffusion model of decision making and timing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Simen, Patrick; Vlasov, Ksenia; Papadakis, Samantha

    2016-03-01

    Weber's law is the canonical scale-invariance law in psychology: when the intensities of 2 stimuli are scaled by any value k, the just-noticeable-difference between them also scales by k. A diffusion model that approximates a spike-counting process accounts for Weber's law (Link, 1992), but there exist surprising corollaries of this account that have not yet been described or tested. We show that (a) this spike-counting diffusion model predicts time-scale invariant decision time distributions in perceptual decision making, and time-scale invariant response time (RT) distributions in interval timing; (b) for 2-choice perceptual decisions, the model predicts equal accuracy but faster responding for stimulus pairs with equally scaled-up intensities; (c) the coefficient of variation (CV) of decision times should remain constant across average intensity scales, but should otherwise decrease as a specific function of stimulus discriminability and speed-accuracy trade-off; and (d) for timing tasks, RT CVs should be constant for all durations, and RT skewness should always equal 3 times the CV. We tested these predictions using visual, auditory and vibrotactile decision tasks and visual interval timing tasks in humans. The data conformed closely to the predictions in all modalities. These results support a unified theory of decision making and timing in terms of a common, underlying spike-counting process, compactly represented as a diffusion process. (c) 2016 APA, all rights reserved).

  18. Ordinary fractional differential equations are in fact usual entire ordinary differential equations on time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Damasceno, Berenice C.; Barbanti, Luciano

    2014-12-01

    Despite the huge number of works considering fractional derivatives or derivatives on time scales some basic facts remain to be evaluated. Here we will be showing that the fractional derivative of monomials is in fact an entire derivative considered on an appropriate time scale.

  19. Some Opial Dynamic Inequalities Involving Higher Order Derivatives on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir H. Saker

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We will prove some new Opial dynamic inequalities involving higher order derivatives on time scales. The results will be proved by making use of Hölder's inequality, a simple consequence of Keller's chain rule and Taylor monomials on time scales. Some continuous and discrete inequalities will be derived from our results as special cases.

  20. On a nonstandard Volterra type dynamic integral equation on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak Pachpatte

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the present paper is to study some basic qualitative properties of solutions of a nonstandard Volterra type dynamic integral equation on time scales. The tools employed in the analysis are based on the applications of the Banach fixed point theorem and a certain integral inequality with explicit estimate on time scales.

  1. Technical Report on the 6th Time Scale Algorithm Symposium and Tutorials

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-29

    concerning the NTP timekeeping are presented. From all the presentations and lectures given in the conference 6 are selected and encouraged for...Realization of the Swedish National Distributed Time Scale (Carsten Rieck, SP, Sweden) 10:30 10:50 Brazilian Atomic Time Scale TA(ONRJ) (Ricardo Josee

  2. Vartiational Optimal-Control Problems with Delayed Arguments on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdeljawad (Maraaba Thabet

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with variational optimal-control problems on time scales in the presence of delay in the state variables. The problem is considered on a time scale unifying the discrete, the continuous, and the quantum cases. Two examples in the discrete and quantum cases are analyzed to illustrate our results.

  3. Simple parametric survival analysis with anonymized register data: A cohort study with truncated and interval censored event and censoring times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kristiansen Ivar S

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background To preserve patient anonymity, health register data may be provided as binned data only. Here we consider as example, how to estimate mean survival time after a diagnosis of metastatic colorectal cancer from Norwegian register data on time to death or censoring binned into 30 day intervals. All events occurring in the first three months (90 days after diagnosis were removed to achieve comparability with a clinical trial. The aim of the paper is to develop and implement a simple, and yet flexible method for analyzing such interval censored and truncated data. Methods Considering interval censoring a missing data problem, we implement a simple multiple imputation strategy that allows flexible sensitivity analyses with respect to the shape of the censoring distribution. To allow identification of appropriate parametric models, a χ2-goodness-of-fit test--also imputation based--is derived and supplemented with diagnostic plots. Uncertainty estimates for mean survival times are obtained via a simulation strategy. The validity and statistical efficiency of the proposed method for varying interval lengths is investigated in a simulation study and compared with simpler alternatives. Results Mean survival times estimated from the register data ranged from 1.2 (SE = 0.09 to 3.2 (0.31 years depending on period of diagnosis and choice of parametric model. The shape of the censoring distribution within intervals did generally not influence results, whereas the choice of parametric model did, even when different models fit the data equally well. In simulation studies both simple midpoint imputation and multiple imputation yielded nearly unbiased analyses (relative biases of -0.6% to 9.4% and confidence intervals with near-nominal coverage probabilities (93.4% to 95.7% for censoring intervals shorter than six months. For 12 month censoring intervals, multiple imputation provided better protection against bias, and coverage probabilities

  4. Efficacy of Re-188-labelled sulphur colloid on prolongation of survival time in melanoma-bearing animals

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chen, F.D.; Hsieh, B.T. E-mail: bthsieh@iner.gov.tw; Wang, H.E.; Ou, Y.H.; Yang, W.K.; Whang-Peng, J.; Liu, R.S.; Knapp, F.F.; Ting, G.; Yen, S.H

    2001-10-01

    In this study, the effectiveness of a {sup 188}Re labeled sulfur colloid with two particle size ranges was used to evaluate the effectiveness of this agent on melanoma tumors in mice in terms of animal lifespan. Methods: Two separate group of animals were used for investigating biodistribution and survival time. A total of 188 B16F10-melanoma-bearing BDF{sub 1} mice were injected intraperitoneally with 3.7 MBq (0.1mCi)/2mL of radiolabeled sulfur colloid ten days after intraperitoneal inoculation of 5x10{sup 5} B16F10 melanoma cells/2ml. For group 1, 30 mice were sacrificed at 1, 4, 24, 48 and 72 hours for biodistribution studies. In group 2, 158 mice were divided into 9 groups (n=16{approx}18/groups)each receiving respectively tumor alone, tumor with normal saline, cold colloid or hot colloid with 16, 23, 31, 46, 62, or 124 MBq activity. Each of these colloid groups was further divided into two groups, one receiving smaller particle sizes (<3{mu}m:80.4 {+-}7.2%, colloid 1) and the other receiving larger particle sizes (<3{mu}m:12.3{+-}1.0%, colloid 2). The animals were checked daily until death and their survival recorded. Results: Colloid 2 showed higher accumulation in almost all tissues, the highest accumulation organ was tumor ({approx} 40%), then spleen ({approx}20%), stomach ({approx}15%), diaphragm ({approx}3%), and liver ({approx}2%). There was a significant increase in survival time with increasing amount of the larger-particle-size colloid. Administered levels of 16-31 MBq/mouse were most efficacious and with higher amounts the survival times decreased significantly below that of the controls. There was a significant difference in the dose-response curves for the two preparations. Protection factors (1/Relative-risk) of nearly 5 were achieved using the larger colloid size, and nearly 30 using the smaller colloid size. An amount of 16-31 MBq of the colloid 2 was the optimal activity in these studies. On the one hand, the survival data agreed well with the

  5. Genetic relationship of discrete-time survival with fertility and production in dairy cattle using bivariate models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alenda Rafael

    2007-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Bivariate analyses of functional longevity in dairy cattle measured as survival to next lactation (SURV with milk yield and fertility traits were carried out. A sequential threshold-linear censored model was implemented for the analyses of SURV. Records on 96 642 lactations from 41 170 cows were used to estimate genetic parameters, using animal models, for longevity, 305 d-standardized milk production (MY305, days open (DO and number of inseminations to conception (INS in the Spanish Holstein population; 31% and 30% of lactations were censored for DO and INS, respectively. Heritability estimates for SURV and MY305 were 0.11 and 0.27 respectively; while heritability estimates for fertility traits were lower (0.07 for DO and 0.03 for INS. Antagonist genetic correlations were estimated between SURV and fertility (-0.78 and -0.54 for DO and INS, respectively or production (-0.53 for MY305, suggesting reduced functional longevity with impaired fertility and increased milk production. Longer days open seems to affect survival more than increased INS. Also, high productive cows were more problematic, less functional and more liable to being culled. The results suggest that the sequential threshold model is a method that might be considered at evaluating genetic relationship between discrete-time survival and other traits, due to its flexibility.

  6. Desiccation survival time for eggs of a widespread and invasive Australian mosquito species, Aedes (Finlaya) notoscriptus (Skuse).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faull, K J; Webb, C; Williams, C R

    2016-06-01

    The Australian native mosquito Aedes (Finlaya) notoscriptus (Skuse) is closely associated with natural and artificial water holding receptacles. Eggs are laid in habitats where they are exposed to drying conditions as water levels fluctuate. Withstanding desiccation enables survival in challenging environments and increases the potential for establishment in non-native habitats. Until now, the desiccation resistance of Ae. notoscriptus eggs has been unknown despite the historical invasive success of this important dog heartworm and arbovirus vector. Viability and mean survival times of eggs from two Ae. notoscriptus populations (metropolitan areas of Sydney, NSW and Adelaide, SA) were evaluated, with eggs stored under three dryness conditions for up to 367 days. Our results revealed that Ae. notoscriptus eggs can withstand desiccation for extended periods, under a variety of conditions, with approximately 9-13% egg viability recorded after one year. This prolonged egg survival reflects the widespread distribution of this mosquito in Australia and its history of incursions and subsequent establishment in non-native habitats. Differences in mean egg volume were recorded in addition to significantly different egg length to width ratios for the two populations, which may reflect adaptation to biotope of origin and an associated likelihood of drought and drying conditions. The results of this study suggest that the desiccation resistant eggs of Ae. notoscriptus make this species highly adaptable, increasing the risk of movement to non-endemic regions of the world. © 2016 The Society for Vector Ecology.

  7. Neurogenesis and the Spacing Effect: Learning over Time Enhances Memory and the Survival of New Neurons

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sisti, Helene M.; Glass, Arnold L.; Shors, Tracey J.

    2007-01-01

    Information that is spaced over time is better remembered than the same amount of information massed together. This phenomenon, known as the spacing effect, was explored with respect to its effect on learning and neurogenesis in the adult dentate gyrus of the hippocampal formation. Because the cells are generated over time and because learning…

  8. The effect of time of planting at stake on cocoa seedling survival ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Studies were conducted at the Cocoa Research Institute of Ghana, Tafo and its sub-station at Bunso, from 1994 to 1997 to re-appraise the success of cocoa etablishment from seeds sown at stake at specified times of the year before the onset of the dry season. The treatments consisted of four times within the year when ...

  9. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn

    2013-01-01

    To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work.......To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work....

  10. Modeling the uncertainty associated with the observation scale of space/time natural processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, S.; Serre, M.

    2005-12-01

    In many mapping applications of spatiotemporally distributed hydrological processes, the traditional space/time Geostatistics approaches have played a significant role to estimate a variable of interest at unsampled locations. Measured values are usually sparsely located over space and time due to the difficulty and cost of obtaining data. In some cases, the data for the hydrological variable of interest may have been collected at different temporal or spatial observation scales. Even though mixing data measured at different space/time scales may alleviate the problem of the sparsity of the data available, it essentially disregards the scale effect of estimation results. The importance of the scale effect must be recognized since a variable displays different physical properties depending on the spatial or temporal scale at which it is observed. In this study we develop a mathematical framework to derive the conditional Probability Density Function (PDF) of a variable at the local scale given an observation of that variable at a larger spatial or temporal scale, which properly models the uncertainty associated with the different observations scales of space/time natural processes. The developed framework allows to efficiently mix data observed at a variety of scales by accounting for data uncertainty associated with each observation scale present, and therefore generates soft data rigorously assimilated in the Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) method of modern Geostatistics to increase the mapping accuracy of the map at the scale of interest. We investigate the proposed approach with synthetic case studies involving observations of a space/time process at a variety of temporal and spatial scales. These case studies demonstrate the power of the proposed approach by leading to a set of maps with a noticeable increase of mapping accuracy over classical approaches not accounting for the scale effects. Hence the proposed approach will be useful for a wide variety of

  11. Vitamin D Depletion in Pregnancy Decreases Survival Time, Oxygen Saturation, Lung Weight and Body Weight in Preterm Rat Offspring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sine Lykkedegn

    Full Text Available Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OHD determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19 or day 22 (E22, placental weight, birth weight, crown-rump-length (CRL, oxygenation (SaO2 at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR. S-25(OHD was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, p<0.0001. Compared to the controls, E19 VDL pups had lower birth weight (2.13 vs. 2.29g, p<0.001, lung weight (0.09 vs. 0.10g, p = 0.002, SaO2 (54% vs. 69%, p = 0.002 as well as reduced survival time (0.50 vs. 1.25h, p<0.0001. At E22, the VDL-induced pulmonary differences were leveled out, but VDL pups had lower CRL (4.0 vs. 4.5cm, p<0.0001. The phospholipid levels and the surfactant protein mRNA expression did not differ between the dietary groups. In conclusion, Vitamin D depletion led to lower oxygenation and reduced survival time in the preterm offspring, associated with reduced lung weight and birth weight. Further studies of vitamin D depletion in respiratory insufficiency in preterm neonates are warranted.

  12. Significantly improved survival time in pigs with complete liver ischemia treated with a novel bioartificial liver.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flendrig, L M; Calise, F; Di Florio, E; Mancini, A; Ceriello, A; Santaniello, W; Mezza, E; Sicoli, F; Belleza, G; Bracco, A; Cozzolino, S; Scala, D; Mazzone, M; Fattore, M; Gonzales, E; Chamuleau, R A

    1999-10-01

    Aim of the study was to evaluate treatment efficacy and safety of a scaled-up version of our porcine hepatocytes based BAL system in pigs with complete liver ischemia (LIS). Thirty-one pigs underwent total devascularization of the liver (LIS) by termino-lateral porta-caval shunts and sutures around the bile duct, the common hepatic and gastroduodenal arteries and their accessory branches. The hepato-duodenal ligament was completely transected. Four experimental groups were studied: the first control group (LIS Control, n = 10) received glucose infusion only, the second control group (LIS Plasmapheresis, n = 8) was connected to a centrifugal plasma-separator with a bottle representing the bioreactor volume, the third control group (LIS Empty-BAL, n = 5) received BAL treatment without cells, and the treated group (LIS Cell-BAL, n = 8) was connected for a maximum period of 24 hours to our scaled-up BAL seeded with around 14 billion viable primary porcine hepatocytes. BAL treatment significantly prolonged life in large animals (approximately 35 kg) with complete LIS (Controls, mean +/- SEM: 33.1 +/- 3 h, Cell-BAL: 51.1 +/- 3.4 h; p = 0.001; longest survivor 63 h). In addition, blood ammonia and total bilirubin levels decreased significantly, indicating metabolic activity of porcine hepatocytes in the bioreactor. No significant differences were noticed among the three control groups, indicating that there was no device effect and that the plasmapheresis procedure was well tolerated. No important adverse effects were observed.

  13. Dual-time scale crystal plasticity FE model for cyclic deformation of Ti alloys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manchiraju, Sivom; Kirane, Kedar; Ghosh, Somnath

    2007-12-01

    A dual-time scale finite element model is developed in this paper for simulating cyclic deformation in a Titanium alloy Ti-6242. The material is characterized by crystal plasticity constitutive relations. Modeling cyclic deformation using conventional time integration algorithms in a single time scale can be prohibitive for crystal plasticity computations. Typically 3D crystal plasticity based fatigue simulations found in the literature are in the range of 100 cycles. Results are subsequently extrapolated to thousands of cycles, which can lead to considerable error in fatigue predictions. However, the dual-time scale model enables simulations up to a significantly high number of cycles to reach local states of damage initiation leading to fatigue crack growth. This formulation decomposes the governing equations into two sets of problems, corresponding to a coarse time scale (low frequency) cycle-averaged problem and a fine time scale (high frequency) oscillatory problem. A statistically equivalent 3D polycrystalline model of Ti-6242 is simulated by the crystal plasticity finite element model to study the evolution of local stresses and strains in the microstructure with cyclic loading. The comparison with the single time scale reference solution shows excellent accuracy while the efficiency gained through time-scale compression can be enormous.

  14. Quantifying catchment-scale mixing and its effect on time-varying travel time distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velde, van der Y.; Torfs, P.J.J.F.; Zee, van der S.E.A.T.M.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2012-01-01

    Travel time distributions are often used to characterize catchment discharge behavior, catchment vulnerability to pollution and pollutant loads from catchments to downstream waters. However, these distributions vary with time because they are a function of rainfall and evapotranspiration. It is

  15. Quantifying catchment-scale mixing and its effects on time varying travel time distributions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Velde, Y. van der; Torfs, P.J.J.F.; Zee, S.E.A.T.M. van der; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2012-01-01

    Travel time distributions are often used to characterize catchment discharge behavior, catchment vulnerability to pollution and pollutant loads from catchments to downstream waters. However, these distributions vary with time because they are a function of rainfall and evapotranspiration. It is

  16. Differential presentation and survival of de novo and recurrent metastatic breast cancer over time: 1990-2010.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Malmgren, Judith A; Mayer, Musa; Atwood, Mary K; Kaplan, Henry G

    2017-10-16

    Differences in de novo (dnMBC) and recurrent metastatic breast cancer (rMBC) presentation and survival over time have not been adequately described. A retrospective cohort study, 1990-2010, with follow up through 2015 of dnMBC patients (stage IV at diagnosis) and rMBC patients with subsequent distant metastatic recurrence (stage I-III initial diagnosis) [dnMBC = 247, rMBC = 911)]. Analysis included Chi squared tests of categorical variables, Kaplan-Meier survival estimates, and Cox proportional adjusted hazard ratios (HzR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI). Disease specific survival (DSS) was time from diagnosis or distant recurrence to BC death. Over time, 1990-1998, 1999-2004, and 2005-2010, dnMBC incidence was constant (3%) and rMBC incidence decreased [18% to 7% (p negative breast cancer (HR-negative/HER2-negative) (p = 0.049). Five-year dnMBC DSS was 44% vs. 21% for rMBC (p year dnMBC DSS improved over time [28% to 55% (p = 0.008)] and rMBC worsened [23% to 13%, p = 0.065)]. Worse DSS was associated with HR-negative status (HzR = 1.63; 1.41, 1.89), rMBC (HzR = 1.88; 1.58, 2.23), older age (70 +) (HzR = 1.88; 1.58, 2.24), > 1 distant metastases (HzR 1.39; 1.20, 1.62), and visceral dominant disease (HzR 1.22; 1.05, 1.43). After 1998, HER2-positive disease was associated with better DSS (HzR = 0.72, 95% CI 0.56, 0.93). Factors associated with the widening survival gap and non-equivalence between dnMBC and rMBC and decreased rMBC incidence warrant further study.

  17. Influence of application sequence and timing of eugenol and lauric arginate (LAE) on survival of spoilage organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Manrique, Yudith; Gibis, Monika; Schmidt, Herbert; Weiss, Jochen

    2017-06-01

    The effectiveness of sequential applications of the antimicrobials eugenol and lauric arginate (LAE) was investigated against Staphylococcus carnosus, Listeria innocua, Escherichia coli K12, and Pseudomonas fluorescens. The antimicrobials were applied simultaneously at half of their minimum lethal concentrations (MLC) or sequentially at t = 0 h and t = 3, 4, 6 or 8 h. Bacterial survival was determined by direct plate counts. Survivals kinetic were fitted to a growth and mortality model to obtain characteristic parameters that described time-dependent changes from growth to mortality or vice versa. The most effective was a simultaneous exposure of both antimicrobials to the spoilage organisms at the beginning of the incubation period. Efficiency decreases depending on order and timing of the two antimicrobials were observed upon sequential treatments. These were most effective when antimicrobials where applied within a short time period (3-4 h) and when eugenol was first applied against S. carnosus and P. fluorescens. No sequence effects were observed for L. innocua, and sequential treatments proved to be ineffective against E. coli K12. These results were attributed to cells adapting to the first applied antimicrobial. In some cases, this provided protection against the second antimicrobial rendering the overall treatment less effective. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  18. Acceleration time scale for the first-order Fermi acceleration in relativistic shock waves

    OpenAIRE

    Bednarz, J.; Ostrowski, M.

    1996-01-01

    The acceleration time scale for the process of first-order Fermi acceleration in relativistic shock waves with oblique magnetic field configurations is investigated by the method of Monte Carlo particle simulations. We demonstrate the presence of correlation between the particle energy gain at interaction with the shock and the respective time elapsed since the previous interaction. Because of that any derivation of the acceleration time scale can not use the distribution of energy gains and ...

  19. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

    2017-07-28

    Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  20. Modelling soil carbon movement by erosion over large scales and long time periods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Quinton, John; Davies, Jessica; Tipping, Ed

    2014-05-01

    Agricultural intensification accelerates physical erosion rates and the transport of carbon within the landscape. In order to improve understanding of how past, present and future anthropogenic land-use change has and will influence carbon and nutrient cycling, it is necessary to develop quantitative tools that can predict soil erosion and carbon movement at large temporal and spatial scales, that are consistent with the time constants of biogeochemical processes and the spatial scales of land-use change and natural resources. However, representing erosion and its impact on the carbon cycle over large spatial scales and long time periods is challenging. Erosion and sediment transport processes operate at multiple spatial and temporal scales with splash erosion dominating at the sub-plot scale and occurring within seconds, up to gully formation operating at field-catchment scales over days to months. In addition, most erosion production observations are made at the experimental plot scale, where fine time scales and detailed processes dominate. This is coupled with complexities associated with carbon detachment, decomposition and uncertainties surrounding carbon burial rates and stability - all of which occur over widely different temporal and spatial scales. As such, these data cannot be simply scaled to inform erosion and carbon representation at the regional scale, where topography, vegetation cover and landscape organisation become more important controls on sediment fluxes. We have developed a simple energy-based regional scale method of soil erosion modelling, which is integration into a hydro-biogeochemical model that will simulate carbon, nitrogen and phosphorus pools and fluxes across the UK from the industrial revolution to the present day. The model is driven by overland flow, dynamic vegetation cover, soil properties, and topographic distributions and produces sediment production and yield at the 5km grid scale. In this paper we will introduce the

  1. Effect of helicity on the correlation time of large scales in turbulent flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Alexandre; Alexakis, Alexandros; Brachet, Marc-Étienne

    2017-11-01

    Solutions of the forced Navier-Stokes equation have been conjectured to thermalize at scales larger than the forcing scale, similar to an absolute equilibrium obtained for the spectrally truncated Euler equation. Using direct numeric simulations of Taylor-Green flows and general-periodic helical flows, we present results on the probability density function, energy spectrum, autocorrelation function, and correlation time that compare the two systems. In the case of highly helical flows, we derive an analytic expression describing the correlation time for the absolute equilibrium of helical flows that is different from the E-1 /2k-1 scaling law of weakly helical flows. This model predicts a new helicity-based scaling law for the correlation time as τ (k ) ˜H-1 /2k-1 /2 . This scaling law is verified in simulations of the truncated Euler equation. In simulations of the Navier-Stokes equations the large-scale modes of forced Taylor-Green symmetric flows (with zero total helicity and large separation of scales) follow the same properties as absolute equilibrium including a τ (k ) ˜E-1 /2k-1 scaling for the correlation time. General-periodic helical flows also show similarities between the two systems; however, the largest scales of the forced flows deviate from the absolute equilibrium solutions.

  2. Expectation-maximization algorithms for learning a finite mixture of univariate survival time distributions from partially specified class values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.

  3. Estimation of total genetic effects for survival time in crossbred laying hens showing cannibalism, using pedigree or genomic information.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brinker, T; Raymond, B; Bijma, P; Vereijken, A; Ellen, E D

    2017-02-01

    Mortality of laying hens due to cannibalism is a major problem in the egg-laying industry. Survival depends on two genetic effects: the direct genetic effect of the individual itself (DGE) and the indirect genetic effects of its group mates (IGE). For hens housed in sire-family groups, DGE and IGE cannot be estimated using pedigree information, but the combined effect of DGE and IGE is estimated in the total breeding value (TBV). Genomic information provides information on actual genetic relationships between individuals and might be a tool to improve TBV accuracy. We investigated whether genomic information of the sire increased TBV accuracy compared with pedigree information, and we estimated genetic parameters for survival time. A sire model with pedigree information (BLUP) and a sire model with genomic information (ssGBLUP) were used. We used survival time records of 7290 crossbred offspring with intact beaks from four crosses. Cross-validation was used to compare the models. Using ssGBLUP did not improve TBV accuracy compared with BLUP which is probably due to the limited number of sires available per cross (~50). Genetic parameter estimates were similar for BLUP and ssGBLUP. For both BLUP and ssGBLUP, total heritable variance (T(2) ), expressed as a proportion of phenotypic variance, ranged from 0.03 ± 0.04 to 0.25 ± 0.09. Further research is needed on breeding value estimation for socially affected traits measured on individuals kept in single-family groups. © 2016 The Authors. Journal of Animal Breeding and Genetics Published by Blackwell Verlag GmbH.

  4. Assessment of chronic effects of tebuconazole on survival, reproduction and growth of Daphnia magna after different exposure times.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sancho, E; Villarroel, M J; Ferrando, M D

    2016-02-01

    The effect of the fungicide tebuconazole (0.41, 0.52, 0.71 and 1.14mg/L) on survival, reproduction and growth of Daphnia magna organisms was monitored using 14 and 21 days exposure tests. A third experiment was performed by exposing D. magna to the fungicide for 14 days followed by 7 days of recovery (14+7). In order to test fungicide effects on D. magna, parameters as survival, mean whole body length, mean total number of neonates per female, mean number of broods per female, mean brood size per female, time to first brood/reproduction and intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) were used. Reproduction was seriously affected by tebuconazole. All tebuconazole concentrations tested affected the number of broods per female and day to first brood. At 14-days test, number of neonates per female and body size decreased by concentrations of tebuconazole higher than 0.52mg/L, whereas at 21-days test both parameters were affected at all the concentrations tested. Survival of the daphnids after 14 days fungicide exposure did not exhibited differences among experimental and control groups. In this experiment r value was reduced (in a 22%) when animals were exposed to concentrations of 0.71mg/L and 1.14mg/L. Survival of daphnids exposed during 21 days to 1.14mg/L declined, and the intrinsic rate of natural increase (r) decreased in a 30 % for tebuconazole concentrations higher than 0.41mg/L. Longevity of daphnids pre-exposed to tebuconazole for 14 days and 7 days in clean water did not show differences from control values and all of them survived the 21 days of the test. However, after 7 days in fungicide free medium animals were unable to restore control values for reproductive parameters and length. The maximum acceptable toxicant concentration (MATC) was calculated using the r values as parameter of evaluation. MATC estimations were 0.61mg/L and 0.46mg/L for 14 and 21 days, respectively. Results showed that the number of neonates per female was the highest sensitive

  5. The multiple time scales of sleep dynamics as a challenge for modelling the sleeping brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olbrich, Eckehard; Claussen, Jens Christian; Achermann, Peter

    2011-10-13

    A particular property of the sleeping brain is that it exhibits dynamics on very different time scales ranging from the typical sleep oscillations such as sleep spindles and slow waves that can be observed in electroencephalogram (EEG) segments of several seconds duration over the transitions between the different sleep stages on a time scale of minutes to the dynamical processes involved in sleep regulation with typical time constants in the range of hours. There is an increasing body of work on mathematical and computational models addressing these different dynamics, however, usually considering only processes on a single time scale. In this paper, we review and present a new analysis of the dynamics of human sleep EEG at the different time scales and relate the findings to recent modelling efforts pointing out both the achievements and remaining challenges.

  6. A special case of reduced rank models for identification and modelling of time varying effects in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perperoglou, Aris

    2016-12-10

    Flexible survival models are in need when modelling data from long term follow-up studies. In many cases, the assumption of proportionality imposed by a Cox model will not be valid. Instead, a model that can identify time varying effects of fixed covariates can be used. Although there are several approaches that deal with this problem, it is not always straightforward how to choose which covariates should be modelled having time varying effects and which not. At the same time, it is up to the researcher to define appropriate time functions that describe the dynamic pattern of the effects. In this work, we suggest a model that can deal with both fixed and time varying effects and uses simple hypotheses tests to distinguish which covariates do have dynamic effects. The model is an extension of the parsimonious reduced rank model of rank 1. As such, the number of parameters is kept low, and thus, a flexible set of time functions, such as b-splines, can be used. The basic theory is illustrated along with an efficient fitting algorithm. The proposed method is applied to a dataset of breast cancer patients and compared with a multivariate fractional polynomials approach for modelling time-varying effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  7. Vitamin D Depletion in Pregnancy Decreases Survival Time, Oxygen Saturation, Lung Weight and Body Weight in Preterm Rat Offspring.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lykkedegn, Sine; Sorensen, Grith Lykke; Beck-Nielsen, Signe Sparre; Pilecki, Bartosz; Duelund, Lars; Marcussen, Niels; Christesen, Henrik Thybo

    2016-01-01

    Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL) or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OH)D) determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19) or day 22 (E22), placental weight, birth weight, crown-rump-length (CRL), oxygenation (SaO2) at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR). S-25(OH)D was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, plung weight (0.09 vs. 0.10g, p = 0.002), SaO2 (54% vs. 69%, p = 0.002) as well as reduced survival time (0.50 vs. 1.25h, plung weight and birth weight. Further studies of vitamin D depletion in respiratory insufficiency in preterm neonates are warranted.

  8. Incubation media affect the survival, pathway and time of embryo development in Neotropical annual fish Austrolebias nigrofasciatus (Rivulidae).

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Fonseca, A P; Volcan, M V; Robaldo, R B

    2018-01-01

    To analyse the survival, pathway and time of embryo development in the annual fish Austrolebias nigrofasciatus eggs were monitored in four liquid media and two damp media under experimental conditions for 130 days until their development was complete. Eggs kept in the same breeding water from oviposition remained in diapause I (DI) during all experiments. In constrast, up to the stage prior to entering diapause II (DII), the other media had no influence on development. Embryos at this stage (DII), however, show longer development time when treated in medium with water and powdered coconut shell so that about 80% of embryos remained in DII at 100 days. In contrast, all other treatments had a significantly lower proportion of embryos remaining in DII. When treated with Yamamoto's solution in humid media, embryos showed the fastest development. The first fully developed embryos (DIII) were seen at 27 days after oviposition. It took an average of 46-58 days for 50% of eggs in each treatment to reach DIII. Compared with other studies, survival in all incubation media was high at between 70 and 98%. Taken together, it can be concluded that all incubation media were found to be viable for maintaining embryos. Altering developmental trajectories through the manipulation of diapauses in different media makes this species a potential model organism for laboratory studies. © 2017 The Fisheries Society of the British Isles.

  9. A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leger, Stefan; Zwanenburg, Alex; Pilz, Karoline; Lohaus, Fabian; Linge, Annett; Zöphel, Klaus; Kotzerke, Jörg; Schreiber, Andreas; Tinhofer, Inge; Budach, Volker; Sak, Ali; Stuschke, Martin; Balermpas, Panagiotis; Rödel, Claus; Ganswindt, Ute; Belka, Claus; Pigorsch, Steffi; Combs, Stephanie E; Mönnich, David; Zips, Daniel; Krause, Mechthild; Baumann, Michael; Troost, Esther G C; Löck, Steffen; Richter, Christian

    2017-10-16

    Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The considered algorithms are able to deal with continuous time-to-event survival data. Feature selection and model building were performed on a multicentre cohort (213 patients) and validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods which achieve similar results, e.g. C-Index = 0.71 and BT-COX: C-Index = 0.70 in combination with Spearman feature selection. Using the best performing models, patients were stratified into groups of low and high risk of recurrence. Significant differences in LRC were obtained between both groups on the validation cohort. Based on the presented analysis, we identified a subset of algorithms which should be considered in future radiomics studies to develop stable and clinically relevant predictive models for time-to-event endpoints.

  10. Estimating the distribution of rest-frame time-scales for blazar jets: a statistical approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liodakis, I.; Blinov, D.; Papadakis, I.; Pavlidou, V.

    2017-03-01

    In any flux-density limited sample of blazars, the distribution of the time-scale modulation factor Δt΄/Δt, which quantifies the change in observed time-scales compared to the rest-frame ones due to redshift and relativistic compression follows an exponential distribution with a mean depending on the flux limit of the sample. In this work, we produce the mathematical formalism that allows us to use this information in order to uncover the underlining rest-frame probability density function of measurable time-scales of blazar jets. We extensively test our proposed methodology using a simulated Flat Spectrum Radio Quasar population with a 1.5 Jy flux-density limit in the simple case (where all blazars share the same intrinsic time-scale), in order to identify limits of applicability and potential biases due to observational systematics and sample selection. We find that for monitoring with time intervals between observations longer than ∼30 per cent of the intrinsic time-scale under investigation the method loses its ability to produce robust results. For time intervals of ∼3 per cent of the intrinsic time-scale, the error of the method is as low as 1 per cent in recovering the intrinsic rest-frame time-scale. We applied our method to rotations of the optical polarization angle of blazars observed by RoboPol. We found that the intrinsic time-scales of the longest duration rotation event in each blazar follows a narrow distribution, well described by a normal distribution with mean 87 d and standard deviation 5 d. We discuss possible interpretations of this result.

  11. Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

  12. Mastering Uncertainty and Risk at Multiple Time Scales in the Future Electrical Grid

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chertkov, Michael [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Bent, Russell W. [Los Alamos National Laboratory; Backhaus, Scott N. [Los Alamos National Laboratory

    2012-07-10

    Today's electrical grids enjoy a relatively clean separation of spatio-temporal scales yielding a compartmentalization of grid design, optimization, control and risk assessment allowing for the use of conventional mathematical tools within each area. In contrast, the future grid will incorporate time-intermittent renewable generation, operate via faster electrical markets, and tap the latent control capability at finer grid modeling scales; creating a fundamentally new set of couplings across spatiotemporal scales and requiring revolutionary advances in mathematics techniques to bridge these scales. One example is found in decade-scale grid expansion planning in which today's algorithms assume accurate load forecasts and well-controlled generation. Incorporating intermittent renewable generation creates fluctuating network flows at the hourly time scale, inherently linking the ability of a transmission line to deliver electrical power to hourly operational decisions. New operations-based planning algorithms are required, creating new mathematical challenges. Spatio-temporal scales are also crossed when the future grid's minute-scale fluctuations in network flows (due to intermittent generation) create a disordered state upon which second-scale transient grid dynamics propagate effectively invalidating today's on-line dynamic stability analyses. Addressing this challenge requires new on-line algorithms that use large data streams from new grid sensing technologies to physically aggregate across many spatial scales to create responsive, data-driven dynamic models. Here, we sketch the mathematical foundations of these problems and potential solutions.

  13. Glottal closure instant and voice source analysis using time-scale ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    For each period, the optimal LoMA is computed by linking amplitude maxima at each scale of a wavelet transform, using a dynamic programming algorithm. A time-scale analysis of the linear acoustic model of speech production shows several interesting properties. The LoMA points to the glottal closure instants. The LoMA ...

  14. Time scales of porphyry Cu deposit formation: insights from titanium diffusion in quartz

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mercer, Celestine N.; Reed, Mark H.; Mercer, Cameron M.

    2015-01-01

    Porphyry dikes and hydrothermal veins from the porphyry Cu-Mo deposit at Butte, Montana, contain multiple generations of quartz that are distinct in scanning electron microscope-cathodoluminescence (SEM-CL) images and in Ti concentrations. A comparison of microprobe trace element profiles and maps to SEM-CL images shows that the concentration of Ti in quartz correlates positively with CL brightness but Al, K, and Fe do not. After calibrating CL brightness in relation to Ti concentration, we use the brightness gradient between different quartz generations as a proxy for Ti gradients that we model to determine time scales of quartz formation and cooling. Model results indicate that time scales of porphyry magma residence are ~1,000s of years and time scales from porphyry quartz phenocryst rim formation to porphyry dike injection and cooling are ~10s of years. Time scales for the formation and cooling of various generations of hydrothermal vein quartz range from 10s to 10,000s of years. These time scales are considerably shorter than the ~0.6 m.y. overall time frame for each porphyry-style mineralization pulse determined from isotopic studies at Butte, Montana. Simple heat conduction models provide a temporal reference point to compare chemical diffusion time scales, and we find that they support short dike and vein formation time scales. We interpret these relatively short time scales to indicate that the Butte porphyry deposit formed by short-lived episodes of hydrofracturing, dike injection, and vein formation, each with discrete thermal pulses, which repeated over the ~3 m.y. generation of the deposit.

  15. A Dynamically Computed Convective Time Scale for the Kain–Fritsch Convective Parameterization Scheme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Many convective parameterization schemes define a convective adjustment time scale τ as the time allowed for dissipation of convective available potential energy (CAPE). The Kain–Fritsch scheme defines τ based on an estimate of the advective time period for deep con...

  16. Time-frequency scaling transformation of the phonocardiogram based of the matching pursuit method.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, X; Durand, L G; Senhadji, L; Lee, H C; Coatrieux, J L

    1998-08-01

    A time-frequency scaling transformation based on the matching pursuit (MP) method is developed for the phonocardiogram (PCG). The MP method decomposes a signal into a series of time-frequency atoms by using an iterative process. The modification of the time scale of the PCG can be performed without perceptible change in its spectral characteristics. It is also possible to modify the frequency scale without changing the temporal properties. The technique has been tested on 11 PCG's containing heart sounds and different murmurs. A scaling/inverse-scaling procedure was used for quantitative evaluation of the scaling performance. Both the spectrogram and a MP-based Wigner distribution were used for visual comparison in the time-frequency domain. The results showed that the technique is suitable and effective for the time-frequency scale transformation of both the transient property of the heart sounds and the more complex random property of the murmurs. It is also shown that the effectiveness of the method is strongly related to the optimization of the parameters used for the decomposition of the signals.

  17. Existence Results for Higher-Order Boundary Value Problems on Time Scales

    OpenAIRE

    Sang Yanbin; Liu Jian

    2009-01-01

    By using the fixed-point index theorem, we consider the existence of positive solutions for the following nonlinear higher-order four-point singular boundary value problem on time scales , ; , ; , ; , , where , , , , , , , and is rd-continuous.

  18. Oscillation Criteria for Second-Order Nonlinear Functional Dynamic Equations with Damping on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emine Tuğla

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we study oscillatory behavior of second-order dynamic equations with damping under some assumptions on time scales. New theorems extend and improve the results in the literature. Illustrative examples are given.

  19. Time-scale invariances in preseismic electromagnetic radiation, magnetization and damage evolution of rocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kawada

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the time-scale invariant changes in electromagnetic and mechanical energy releases prior to a rock failure or a large earthquake. The energy release processes are caused by damage evolutions such as crack propagation, motion of charged dislocation, area-enlargement of sheared asperities and repetitive creep-rate changes. Damage mechanics can be used to represent the time-scale invariant evolutions of both brittle and plastic damages. Irreversible thermodynamics applied to the damage mechanics reveals that the damage evolution produces the variations in charge, dipole and electromagnetic signals in addition to mechanical energy release, and yields the time-scale invariant patterns of Benioff electromagnetic radiation and cumulative Benioff strain-release. The irreversible thermodynamic framework of damage mechanics is also applicable to the seismo-magnetic effect, and the time-scale invariance is recognized in the remanent magnetization change associated with damage evolution prior to a rock failure.

  20. Atmospheric modelling and prediction at time scales from days to seasons

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2010-09-01

    Full Text Available Daily weather forecasts are skilful and are initial-value problems, while at the seasonal time scale, slowly varying surface forcing, for example from the tropical Pacific Ocean, can induce atmospheric anomalies that are sufficiently long...

  1. Zero-order Approximation of Three-time Scale Singular Linear-quadratic Optimal Control Problem

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kalashnikova, M. A

    2015-01-01

    This paper is devoted to the construction of a zero-order approximation of the solution of a three-time scale singular perturbed linear-quadratic optimal control problem with the help of the direct scheme method...

  2. In a warming climate, just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales?

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Landman, WA

    2011-10-01

    Full Text Available , just how predictable are temperature extremes at weather and seasonal time scales? Willem A. Landman Estelle Marx Ruth Park Stephanie Landman Melissa Lazenby Climate change projections First-order quadratic difference equation ? Lorenz...

  3. Multiple time scales in modeling the incidence of infections acquired in intensive care units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Wolkewitz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When patients are admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU their risk of getting an infection will be highly depend on the length of stay at-risk in the ICU. In addition, risk of infection is likely to vary over calendar time as a result of fluctuations in the prevalence of the pathogen on the ward. Hence risk of infection is expected to depend on two time scales (time in ICU and calendar time as well as competing events (discharge or death and their spatial location. The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply appropriate statistical models for the risk of ICU-acquired infection accounting for multiple time scales, competing risks and the spatial clustering of the data. Methods A multi-center data base from a Spanish surveillance network was used to study the occurrence of an infection due to Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA. The analysis included 84,843 patient admissions between January 2006 and December 2011 from 81 ICUs. Stratified Cox models were used to study multiple time scales while accounting for spatial clustering of the data (patients within ICUs and for death or discharge as competing events for MRSA infection. Results Both time scales, time in ICU and calendar time, are highly associated with the MRSA hazard rate and cumulative risk. When using only one basic time scale, the interpretation and magnitude of several patient-individual risk factors differed. Risk factors concerning the severity of illness were more pronounced when using only calendar time. These differences disappeared when using both time scales simultaneously. Conclusions The time-dependent dynamics of infections is complex and should be studied with models allowing for multiple time scales. For patient individual risk-factors we recommend stratified Cox regression models for competing events with ICU time as the basic time scale and calendar time as a covariate. The inclusion of calendar time and stratification by ICU

  4. A two-time-scale autopilot for high-performance aircraft

    Science.gov (United States)

    Menon, P. K. A.; Chatterji, G. B.; Cheng, V. H. L.

    1991-01-01

    A two-time-scale autopilot is proposed for the Aircraft Controls Design Challenge problem. This control law uses a nonlinear aircraft model constructed from the given vehicle simulation. The vehicle model is partitioned into slow translational dynamics and fast rotational dynamics. Feedback linearization is then employed to synthesize control laws for these two-time scales. Due to the nature of the synthesis, the control law is suitable for automatic trajectory following, and also for pilot control.

  5. New time-scale criteria for model simplification of bio-reaction systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lee Sang

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Quasi-steady state approximation (QSSA based on time-scale analysis is known to be an effective method for simplifying metabolic reaction system, but the conventional analysis becomes time-consuming and tedious when the system is large. Although there are automatic methods, they are based on eigenvalue calculations of the Jacobian matrix and on linear transformations, which have a high computation cost. A more efficient estimation approach is necessary for complex systems. Results This work derived new time-scale factor by focusing on the problem structure. By mathematically reasoning the balancing behavior of fast species, new time-scale criteria were derived with a simple expression that uses the Jacobian matrix directly. The algorithm requires no linear transformation or decomposition of the Jacobian matrix, which has been an essential part for previous automatic time-scaling methods. Furthermore, the proposed scale factor is estimated locally. Therefore, an iterative procedure was also developed to find the possible multiple boundary layers and to derive an appropriate reduced model. Conclusion By successive calculation of the newly derived time-scale criteria, it was possible to detect multiple boundary layers of full ordinary differential equation (ODE models. Besides, the iterative procedure could derive the appropriate reduced differential algebraic equation (DAE model with consistent initial values, which was tested with simple examples and a practical example.

  6. ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN TIMES OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISES, METHODS OF ADAPTATION AND SURVIVAL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Oprea

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the main results of a research activity conducted in the South – East region of Romania during November 2009, over 117 small and medium-sized enterprises. The results help to better explain some of the social problems that have been generated in the region as a snow ball effect, due to the economic and financial crisis. The research has revealed the following:The majority of the employees of the companies that were interviewed do not participate in training courses related to project management and personal development. However, company administrators consider that such courses are useful to increase competitiveness in times of economic and financial crises. Personnel under 40 years of age suffer from a lack of professional training and dedication to job requirements. Companies have expressed an interest in accessing European Union funding. However, they do not have complete information that would allow them to start a project and finalize it. This lack of information is mainly due to lack of access to specialists who would write the projects and submit them. The majority of entrepreneurs consider they cannot write the projects themselves but on the other hand they do not have access to consulting companies or other organizations that could help them. Their main information source is the mass-media.As a result, companies have adjusted to the effects of the economic crisis, diminishing their activity and laying off people, decreasing the running expenses and stopping investing in their development.

  7. Effect of Migration Pathway on Travel Time and Survival of Acoustic-Tagged Juvenile Salmonids in the Columbia River Estuary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harnish, Ryan A.; Johnson, Gary E.; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Hughes, Michael S.; Ebberts, Blaine D.

    2012-02-01

    Off-channel areas (side channels, tidal flats, sand bars, and shallow-water bays) may serve as important migration corridors through estuarine environments for salmon and steelhead smolts. Relatively large percentages (21-33%) of acoustic-tagged yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts were detected migrating through off-channel areas of the Columbia River estuary in 2008. The probability of survival for off-channel migrants (0.78-0.94) was similar to or greater than the survival probability of main channel migrants (0.67-0.93). Median travel times were similar for all species or run types and migration pathways we examined, ranging from 1-2 d. The route used by smolts to migrate through the estuary may affect their vulnerability to predation. Acoustic-tagged steelhead that migrated nearest to avian predator nesting colonies experienced higher predation rates (24%) than those that migrated farthest from the colonies (10%). The use of multiple migration pathways may be advantageous to out-migrating smolts because it helps to buffer against high rates of mortality, which may occur in localized areas, and helps to minimize inter- and intraspecific competition.

  8. Applying survival analysis to a large-scale forest inventory for assessment of tree mortality in Minnesota

    Science.gov (United States)

    C.W. Woodall; P.L. Grambsch; W. Thomas

    2005-01-01

    Tree mortality has traditionally been assessed in forest inventories through summaries of mortality by location, species, and causal agents. Although these methods have historically constituted the majority of tree mortality summarizations, they have had limited use in assessing mortality trends and dynamics. This study proposed a novel method of applying survival...

  9. Epithelial ovarian cancer mortality among Hispanic women: Sub-ethnic disparities and survival trend across time: An analysis of SEER 1992-2013.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chen; Markossian, Talar W; Silva, Abigail; Tarasenko, Yelena N

    2018-02-01

    Over the past half century the proportion of Hispanics in the US population has been steadily increasing, and groups of Hispanic origin have diversified. Despite notable racial and ethnic disparities in ovarian cancer (OC) mortality, population-based studies on OC among Hispanic females are lacking. To examine sub-ethnic disparities in OC mortality and survival trends using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program (SEER) 18 data on Hispanic women diagnosed with epithelial OC during 1992-2013. The disparities in OC 5 year survival and mortality were examined using log-rank tests and Cox proportional hazards models, adjusted for sociodemographic and pathological characteristics, time of diagnosis, receipt of resection surgery and county socioeconomic status. Trends in 5-year survival rates were examined using joinpoint regression models. The 5-year survival was lowest in Puerto Ricans (median survival: 33 months; survival rate: 31.07%) and was highest in the "Other" Hispanic subgroup (median survival: 59 months; survival rate: 49.14%) (log-rank test: P survival rates: from 43.37% to 48.94% (APC = 0.41, P = 0.40) and from 48.72% to 53.46% (APC = 0.29, P = 0.50), respectively. OC mortality in Hispanic patients varied by sub-ethnicity. This heterogeneity should be considered in future cancer data collection, reports and research. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. LARGE SCALE IMAGE PROCESSING IN REAL-TIME ENVIRONMENTS WITH KAFKA

    OpenAIRE

    Yoon-Ki Kim; Chang-Sung Jeong

    2017-01-01

    Recently, real-time image data generated is increasing not only in resolution but also in amount. This large-scale image originates from a large number of camera channels. There is a way to use GPU for high-speed processing of images, but it cannot be done efficiently by using single GPU for large-scale image processing. In this paper, we provide a new method for constructing a distributed environment using open source called Apache Kafka for real-time processing of large-scale images. This m...

  11. Small-time Scale Network Traffic Prediction Based on Complex-valued Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Bin

    2017-07-01

    Accurate models play an important role in capturing the significant characteristics of the network traffic, analyzing the network dynamic, and improving the forecasting accuracy for system dynamics. In this study, complex-valued neural network (CVNN) model is proposed to further improve the accuracy of small-time scale network traffic forecasting. Artificial bee colony (ABC) algorithm is proposed to optimize the complex-valued and real-valued parameters of CVNN model. Small-scale traffic measurements data namely the TCP traffic data is used to test the performance of CVNN model. Experimental results reveal that CVNN model forecasts the small-time scale network traffic measurement data very accurately

  12. The forecast of the postoperative survival time of patients suffered from non-small cell lung cancer based on PCA and extreme learning machine.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Fei; Huang, De-Shuang; Zhu, Zhi-Hua; Rong, Tie-Hua

    2006-02-01

    In this paper, a new effective model is proposed to forecast how long the postoperative patients suffered from non-small cell lung cancer will survive. The new effective model which is based on the extreme learning machine (ELM) and principal component analysis (PCA) can forecast successfully the postoperative patients' survival time. The new model obtains better prediction accuracy and faster convergence rate which the model using backpropagation (BP) algorithm and the Levenberg-Marquardt (LM) algorithm to forecast the postoperative patients' survival time can not achieve. Finally, simulation results are given to verify the efficiency and effectiveness of our proposed new model.

  13. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Lilai, E-mail: llxu@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Gao, Peiqing, E-mail: peiqing15@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China); Cui, Shenghui, E-mail: shcui@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Liu, Chun, E-mail: xmhwlc@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China)

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  14. Putting scales into evolutionary time: the divergence of major scale insect lineages (Hemiptera) predates the radiation of modern angiosperm hosts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vea, Isabelle M.; Grimaldi, David A.

    2016-01-01

    The radiation of flowering plants in the mid-Cretaceous transformed landscapes and is widely believed to have fuelled the radiations of major groups of phytophagous insects. An excellent group to test this assertion is the scale insects (Coccomorpha: Hemiptera), with some 8,000 described Recent species and probably the most diverse fossil record of any phytophagous insect group preserved in amber. We used here a total-evidence approach (by tip-dating) employing 174 morphological characters of 73 Recent and 43 fossil taxa (48 families) and DNA sequences of three gene regions, to obtain divergence time estimates and compare the chronology of the most diverse lineage of scale insects, the neococcoid families, with the timing of the main angiosperm radiation. An estimated origin of the Coccomorpha occurred at the beginning of the Triassic, about 245 Ma [228–273], and of the neococcoids 60 million years later [210–165 Ma]. A total-evidence approach allows the integration of extinct scale insects into a phylogenetic framework, resulting in slightly younger median estimates than analyses using Recent taxa, calibrated with fossil ages only. From these estimates, we hypothesise that most major lineages of coccoids shifted from gymnosperms onto angiosperms when the latter became diverse and abundant in the mid- to Late Cretaceous. PMID:27000526

  15. Putting scales into evolutionary time: the divergence of major scale insect lineages (Hemiptera) predates the radiation of modern angiosperm hosts.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vea, Isabelle M; Grimaldi, David A

    2016-03-22

    The radiation of flowering plants in the mid-Cretaceous transformed landscapes and is widely believed to have fuelled the radiations of major groups of phytophagous insects. An excellent group to test this assertion is the scale insects (Coccomorpha: Hemiptera), with some 8,000 described Recent species and probably the most diverse fossil record of any phytophagous insect group preserved in amber. We used here a total-evidence approach (by tip-dating) employing 174 morphological characters of 73 Recent and 43 fossil taxa (48 families) and DNA sequences of three gene regions, to obtain divergence time estimates and compare the chronology of the most diverse lineage of scale insects, the neococcoid families, with the timing of the main angiosperm radiation. An estimated origin of the Coccomorpha occurred at the beginning of the Triassic, about 245 Ma [228-273], and of the neococcoids 60 million years later [210-165 Ma]. A total-evidence approach allows the integration of extinct scale insects into a phylogenetic framework, resulting in slightly younger median estimates than analyses using Recent taxa, calibrated with fossil ages only. From these estimates, we hypothesise that most major lineages of coccoids shifted from gymnosperms onto angiosperms when the latter became diverse and abundant in the mid- to Late Cretaceous.

  16. A multi-time scale approach to remaining useful life prediction in rolling bearing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qian, Yuning; Yan, Ruqiang; Gao, Robert X.

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents a novel multi-time scale approach to bearing defect tracking and remaining useful life (RUL) prediction, which integrates enhanced phase space warping (PSW) with a modified Paris crack growth model. As a data-driven method, PSW describes the dynamical behavior of the bearing being tested on a fast-time scale, whereas the Paris crack growth model, as a physics-based model, characterizes the bearing's defect propagation on a slow-time scale. Theoretically, PSW constructs a tracking metric by evaluating the phase space trajectory warping of the bearing vibration data, and establishes a correlation between measurement on a fast-time scale and defect growth variables on a slow-time scale. Furthermore, PSW is enhanced by a multi-dimensional auto-regression (AR) model for improved accuracy in defect tracking. Also, the Paris crack growth model is modified by a time-piecewise algorithm for real-time RUL prediction. Case studies performed on two run-to-failure experiments indicate that the developed technique is effective in tracking the evolution of bearing defects and accurately predict the bearing RUL, thus contributing to the literature of bearing prognosis .

  17. Scaling collapse and structure functions: identifying self-affinity in finite length time series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. C. Chapman

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Empirical determination of the scaling properties and exponents of time series presents a formidable challenge in testing, and developing, a theoretical understanding of turbulence and other out-of-equilibrium phenomena. We discuss the special case of self affine time series in the context of a stochastic process. We highlight two complementary approaches to the differenced variable of the data: i attempting a scaling collapse of the Probability Density Functions which should then be well described by the solution of the corresponding Fokker-Planck equation and ii using structure functions to determine the scaling properties of the higher order moments. We consider a method of conditioning that recovers the underlying self affine scaling in a finite length time series, and illustrate it using a Lévy flight.

  18. Time scales in the approach to equilibrium of macroscopic quantum systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldstein, Sheldon; Hara, Takashi; Tasaki, Hal

    2013-10-04

    We prove two theorems concerning the time evolution in general isolated quantum systems. The theorems are relevant to the issue of the time scale in the approach to equilibrium. The first theorem shows that there can be pathological situations in which the relaxation takes an extraordinarily long time, while the second theorem shows that one can always choose an equilibrium subspace, the relaxation to which requires only a short time for any initial state.

  19. Weighing Scale-Based Pulse Transit Time is a Superior Marker of Blood Pressure than Conventional Pulse Arrival Time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martin, Stephanie L.-O.; Carek, Andrew M.; Kim, Chang-Sei; Ashouri, Hazar; Inan, Omer T.; Hahn, Jin-Oh; Mukkamala, Ramakrishna

    2016-12-01

    Pulse transit time (PTT) is being widely pursued for cuff-less blood pressure (BP) monitoring. Most efforts have employed the time delay between ECG and finger photoplethysmography (PPG) waveforms as a convenient surrogate of PTT. However, these conventional pulse arrival time (PAT) measurements include the pre-ejection period (PEP) and the time delay through small, muscular arteries and may thus be an unreliable marker of BP. We assessed a bathroom weighing scale-like system for convenient measurement of ballistocardiography and foot PPG waveforms - and thus PTT through larger, more elastic arteries - in terms of its ability to improve tracking of BP in individual subjects. We measured “scale PTT”, conventional PAT, and cuff BP in humans during interventions that increased BP but changed PEP and smooth muscle contraction differently. Scale PTT tracked the diastolic BP changes well, with correlation coefficient of -0.80 ± 0.02 (mean ± SE) and root-mean-squared-error of 7.6 ± 0.5 mmHg after a best-case calibration. Conventional PAT was significantly inferior in tracking these changes, with correlation coefficient of -0.60 ± 0.04 and root-mean-squared-error of 14.6 ± 1.5 mmHg (p < 0.05). Scale PTT also tracked the systolic BP changes better than conventional PAT but not to an acceptable level. With further development, scale PTT may permit reliable, convenient measurement of BP.

  20. Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis as a Method for Time-Series Analysis of Climate Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heiko Balzter

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and floods have been recorded around the world in the past 10 years. Such changes in the temporal scaling behaviour of climate time-series data can be difficult to detect. While there are easy and direct ways of analysing climate data by calculating the means and variances for different levels of temporal aggregation, these methods can miss more subtle changes in their dynamics. This paper describes multi-scale entropy (MSE analysis as a tool to study climate time-series data and to identify temporal scales of variability and their change over time in climate time-series. MSE estimates the sample entropy of the time-series after coarse-graining at different temporal scales. An application of MSE to Central European, variance-adjusted, mean monthly air temperature anomalies (CRUTEM4v is provided. The results show that the temporal scales of the current climate (1960–2014 are different from the long-term average (1850–1960. For temporal scale factors longer than 12 months, the sample entropy increased markedly compared to the long-term record. Such an increase can be explained by systems theory with greater complexity in the regional temperature data. From 1961 the patterns of monthly air temperatures are less regular at time-scales greater than 12 months than in the earlier time period. This finding suggests that, at these inter-annual time scales, the temperature variability has become less predictable than in the past. It is possible that climate system feedbacks are expressed in altered temporal scales of the European temperature time-series data. A comparison with the variance and Shannon entropy shows that MSE analysis can provide additional information on the

  1. Time tracking and interaction of energy-eddies at different scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cardesa, Jose I.; Vela-Martin, Alberto; Jimenez, Javier

    2016-11-01

    We study the energy cascade through coherent structures obtained in time-resolved simulations of incompressible, statistically steady isotropic turbulence. The structures are defined as geometrically connected regions of the flow with high kinetic energy. We compute the latter by band-pass filtering the velocity field around a scale r. We analyse the dynamics of structures extracted with different r, which are a proxy for eddies containing energy at those r. We find that the size of these "energy-eddies" scales with r, while their lifetime scales with the local eddy-turnover r 2 / 3ɛ - 1 / 3 , where ɛ is the energy dissipation averaged over all space and time. Furthermore, a statistical analysis over the lives of the eddies shows a slight predominance of the splitting over the merging process. When we isolate the eddies which do not interact with other eddies of the same scale, we observe a parent-child dependence by which, on average, structures are born at scale r during the decaying part of the life of a structure at scale r' > r . The energy-eddy at r' lives in the same region of space as that at r. Finally, we investigate how interactions between eddies at the same scale are echoed across other scales. Funded by the ERC project Coturb.

  2. Studying time of flight imaging through scattering media across multiple size scales (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velten, Andreas

    2017-05-01

    Light scattering is a primary obstacle to optical imaging in a variety of different environments and across many size and time scales. Scattering complicates imaging on large scales when imaging through the atmosphere when imaging from airborne or space borne platforms, through marine fog, or through fog and dust in vehicle navigation, for example in self driving cars. On smaller scales, scattering is the major obstacle when imaging through human tissue in biomedical applications. Despite the large variety of participating materials and size scales, light transport in all these environments is usually described with very similar scattering models that are defined by the same small set of parameters, including scattering and absorption length and phase function. We attempt a study of scattering and methods of imaging through scattering across different scales and media, particularly with respect to the use of time of flight information. We can show that using time of flight, in addition to spatial information, provides distinct advantages in scattering environments. By performing a comparative study of scattering across scales and media, we are able to suggest scale models for scattering environments to aid lab research. We also can transfer knowledge and methodology between different fields.

  3. Urban Freight Management with Stochastic Time-Dependent Travel Times and Application to Large-Scale Transportation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shichao Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addressed the vehicle routing problem (VRP in large-scale urban transportation networks with stochastic time-dependent (STD travel times. The subproblem which is how to find the optimal path connecting any pair of customer nodes in a STD network was solved through a robust approach without requiring the probability distributions of link travel times. Based on that, the proposed STD-VRP model can be converted into solving a normal time-dependent VRP (TD-VRP, and algorithms for such TD-VRPs can also be introduced to obtain the solution. Numerical experiments were conducted to address STD-VRPTW of practical sizes on a real world urban network, demonstrated here on the road network of Shenzhen, China. The stochastic time-dependent link travel times of the network were calibrated by historical floating car data. A route construction algorithm was applied to solve the STD problem in 4 delivery scenarios efficiently. The computational results showed that the proposed STD-VRPTW model can improve the level of customer service by satisfying the time-window constraint under any circumstances. The improvement can be very significant especially for large-scale network delivery tasks with no more increase in cost and environmental impacts.

  4. Mountain erosion over 10 yr, 10 k.y., and 10 m.y. time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    James W. Kirchner; Robert C. Finkel; Clifford S. Riebe; Darryl E. Granger; James L. Clayton; John G. King; Walter F. Megahan

    2001-01-01

    We used cosmogenic 10Be to measure erosion rates over 10 k.y. time scales at 32 Idaho mountain catchments, ranging from small experimental watersheds (0.2 km2) to large river basins (35 000 km2). These long-term sediment yields are, on average, 17 times higher than stream sediment fluxes measured over...

  5. Mixing and flushing time scales in the Azhikode Estuary, southwest coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Revichandran, C.; Pylee, A.

    Flushing time scales of the Azhikode Estuary, Kerala, India showed pronounced dry season and wet season signals as well as large inter-annual variation. Cumulative flushing time of the estuary varies from 4.8 tide cycles in April to 1.22 tide cycles...

  6. Acoustic emission monitoring of the Syracuse Athena temple: scale invariance in the timing of ruptures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niccolini, G; Carpinteri, A; Lacidogna, G; Manuello, A

    2011-03-11

    We perform a comparative statistical analysis between the acoustic-emission time series from the ancient Greek Athena temple in Syracuse and the sequence of nearby earthquakes. We find an apparent association between acoustic-emission bursts and the earthquake occurrence. The waiting-time distributions for acoustic-emission and earthquake time series are described by a unique scaling law indicating self-similarity over a wide range of magnitude scales. This evidence suggests a correlation between the aging process of the temple and the local seismic activity.

  7. Almost periodic solutions of impulsive BAM neural networks with variable delays on time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Chao

    2014-08-01

    This paper is concerned with a class of impulsive BAM neural networks with variable delays on time scales. Some sufficient conditions are established to ensure the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solutions for such class of impulsive BAM neural networks. The results are essentially new when T=R or T=Z. It is the first time that the existence and exponential stability of almost periodic solutions for impulsive BAM neural networks are obtained on time scales. Furthermore, an example and numerical simulations are given to illustrate our effectiveness of the obtained results.

  8. Comparative analysis of DNA replication timing reveals conserved large-scale chromosomal architecture.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eitan Yaffe

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available Recent evidence suggests that the timing of DNA replication is coordinated across megabase-scale domains in metazoan genomes, yet the importance of this aspect of genome organization is unclear. Here we show that replication timing is remarkably conserved between human and mouse, uncovering large regions that may have been governed by similar replication dynamics since these species have diverged. This conservation is both tissue-specific and independent of the genomic G+C content conservation. Moreover, we show that time of replication is globally conserved despite numerous large-scale genome rearrangements. We systematically identify rearrangement fusion points and demonstrate that replication time can be locally diverged at these loci. Conversely, rearrangements are shown to be correlated with early replication and physical chromosomal proximity. These results suggest that large chromosomal domains of coordinated replication are shuffled by evolution while conserving the large-scale nuclear architecture of the genome.

  9. Dynamics of Bayesian non-Gaussian sensorimotor learning with multiple time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Baohua; Hofmann, David; Sober, Samuel; Nemenman, Ilya

    Various theoretical and experimental studies have suggested that sensorimotor learning in animals happens on multiple time scales. In such models, animals can respond to perturbations quickly but keep memories for a long period of time. However, those previous models only focus on average learning behaviors. Here, we propose a model with multiple time scales that deals with the dynamics of whole behavior distributions. The model includes multiple memories, each with a non-Gaussian distribution and its own associated time scale. The memories are combined to generate a distribution of the desired motor command. Our model explains simultaneously the dynamics of distributions of the songbird vocal behaviors in various experiments, including adaptations after step changes or ramps in the error signals and dynamics of forgetting during the washout period, where an immediate sharp approach to the baseline is followed by a prolonged decay. This work was supported partially by NIH Grant # 1 R01 EB022872, and NIH Grant # NS084844.

  10. Modeling multiple time scale firing rate adaptation in a neural network of local field potentials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lundstrom, Brian Nils

    2015-02-01

    In response to stimulus changes, the firing rates of many neurons adapt, such that stimulus change is emphasized. Previous work has emphasized that rate adaptation can span a wide range of time scales and produce time scale invariant power law adaptation. However, neuronal rate adaptation is typically modeled using single time scale dynamics, and constructing a conductance-based model with arbitrary adaptation dynamics is nontrivial. Here, a modeling approach is developed in which firing rate adaptation, or spike frequency adaptation, can be understood as a filtering of slow stimulus statistics. Adaptation dynamics are modeled by a stimulus filter, and quantified by measuring the phase leads of the firing rate in response to varying input frequencies. Arbitrary adaptation dynamics are approximated by a set of weighted exponentials with parameters obtained by fitting to a desired filter. With this approach it is straightforward to assess the effect of multiple time scale adaptation dynamics on neural networks. To demonstrate this, single time scale and power law adaptation were added to a network model of local field potentials. Rate adaptation enhanced the slow oscillations of the network and flattened the output power spectrum, dampening intrinsic network frequencies. Thus, rate adaptation may play an important role in network dynamics.

  11. The impact of pamidronate and chemotherapy on survival times in dogs with appendicular primary bone tumors treated with palliative radiation therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oblak, Michelle L; Boston, Sarah E; Higginson, Geraldine; Patten, Steven G; Monteith, Gabrielle J; Woods, J Paul

    2012-04-01

    To assess survival times in dogs that received palliative radiation therapy (RT) alone, and in combination with chemotherapy, pamidronate, or both for primary appendicular bone tumors and determine whether the addition of these adjunctive therapies affects survival. Retrospective case series. Dogs (n = 50) with primary appendicular bone tumors. Dogs were divided into the following treatment groups: RT alone, RT + chemotherapy, RT+ pamidronate, and RT+ chemotherapy + pamidronate. Dogs were considered for analysis if they had a known euthanasia date or follow-up data were available for at least 120 days from the time of diagnosis. Survival time was defined as the time from admission to euthanasia. Cox proportional hazard models and Kaplan-Meier survival functions were used. A P value of less than .05 was considered significant. Fifty dogs were considered for survival analysis. Median survival times (MSTs) were longest for dogs receiving RT and chemotherapy (307 days; 95% CI: 279, 831) and shortest in dogs receiving RT and pamidronate (69 days; 95% CI: 47, 112 days). The difference in MST between dogs who received pamidronate and those who did not in this population was statistically significant in a univariate (P = .039) and multivariate analysis (P = .0015). The addition of chemotherapy into any protocol improved survival (P Chemotherapy should be recommended in addition to a palliative RT protocol to improve survival of dogs with primary appendicular bone tumors. When combined with RT ± chemotherapy, pamidronate decreased MST and should not be included in a standard protocol. © Copyright 2012 by The American College of Veterinary Surgeons.

  12. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blunier, T; Brook, E J

    2001-01-01

    A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings....... This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales....

  13. Scaling of time-dependent stagnant lid convection: Application to small-scale convection on Earth and other terrestrial planets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Solomatov, V. S.; Moresi, L.-N.

    2000-09-01

    Small-scale convection associated with instabilities at the bottom of the lithospheric plates on the Earth and other terrestrial planets occurs in the stagnant lid regime of temperature-dependent viscosity convection. Systematic numerical simulations of time-dependent, internally heated stagnant lid convection suggest simple scaling relationships for a variety of convective parameters and in a broad range of power law viscosities. Application of these scaling relationships to the Earth's oceanic lithosphere shows that for either diffusion or dislocation viscosity of olivine, convective instabilities occur in the lower part of the lithosphere between 85 and 100 km depth (the rheological sublayer). ``Wet'' olivine satisfies constraints on the heat flux and mantle temperature better than ``dry'' olivine, supporting the view that the upper mantle of the Earth is wet. This is also consistent with the fact that the rheological sublayer is located below the Gutenberg discontinuity which was proposed to represent a sharp change in water content. The viscosity of asthenosphere is (3-6)×1018Pas, consistent with previous estimates. The velocities of cold plumes are relatively high reaching several meters per year in the dislocation creep regime. A low value of the heat flux in old continental cratons suggests that continental lithosphere might be convectively stable unless it is perturbed by processes associated with plate tectonics and hot plumes. The absence of plate tectonics on other terrestrial planets and the low heat transport efficiency of stagnant lid convection can lead to widespread melting during the thermal evolution of the terrestrial planets. If the terrestrial planets are dry, small-scale convection cannot occur at subsolidus temperatures.

  14. Evaluation of clinical and histologic factors associated with survival time in dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy and adjuvant chemotherapy: 30 cases (2011-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moore, Antony S; Rassnick, Kenneth M; Frimberger, Angela E

    2017-09-01

    OBJECTIVE To determine histologic and clinical factors associated with survival time in dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma treated by splenectomy and a chemotherapy protocol in which an anthracycline was alternated with lomustine. DESIGN Retrospective case series. ANIMALS 30 dogs with stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma. PROCEDURES Medical records of 3 facilities were reviewed to identify dogs treated for stage II splenic hemangiosarcoma between June 2011 and October 2014. Information collected included signalment, disease staging data, whether anemia was present, date of splenectomy, chemotherapy protocol, adverse effects, and date of death or last follow-up. Histologic slides were reviewed and scored by pathologists. Associations between variables of interest and survival data were evaluated statistically. RESULTS Median survival time for all dogs was 158 days (range, 55 to 560 days), and the 1-year survival rate was 16%. On multivariate analysis, only the histologically determined mitotic score was significantly associated with survival time. The median survival time of 292 days for dogs with a mitotic score of 0 (hemangiosarcoma.

  15. Scale relativity and fractal space-time a new approach to unifying relativity and quantum mechanics

    CERN Document Server

    Nottale, Laurent

    2011-01-01

    This book provides a comprehensive survey of the development of the theory of scale relativity and fractal space-time. It suggests an original solution to the disunified nature of the classical-quantum transition in physical systems, enabling the basis of quantum mechanics on the principle of relativity, provided this principle is extended to scale transformations of the reference system. In the framework of such a newly generalized relativity theory (including position, orientation, motion and now scale transformations), the fundamental laws of physics may be given a general form that unifies

  16. Is Leptospira able to survive in raw milk? Study on the inactivation at different storage times and temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fratini, Filippo; Turchi, Barbara; Ferrone, Martina; Galiero, Alessia; Nuvoloni, Roberta; Torracca, Beatrice; Cerri, Domenico

    2016-09-01

    The consumption of raw milk is currently increasing due to several beneficial aspects, such as nutritional qualities, taste, and health benefits. However, some authors highlight the potential risk associated with raw milk consumption. In Italy, while the absence of some pathogen microorganisms is set by the regional regulation DGR 381/2007, for other microorganisms, such as Leptospira, no recommendations are provided. Leptospira is not ascribed among classical milk pathogens; however, it can potentially be present in raw milk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival in raw milk of six serovars of Leptospira after storage at different temperatures (4 °C ± 2 °C, 20 °C ± 2 °C, and 30 °C ± 2 °C) for different incubation times (20 min, 45 min, 1 h, and 1 h and 30 min), in order to determine the potential risk for consumers. Moreover, the immediate effect of bovine, goat, and donkey raw milk on tested Leptospira serovars was visually evaluated. After incubation, all samples were subcultured in EMJH and incubated aerobically at 30 °C for 3 months. All inoculated media were weekly examined by dark-field microscope in order to assess Leptospira survival. Extemporary observation of strains' behavior in milk allowed to detect an almost immediate motility loss, and no leptospires were detected by microscopic observations carried out weekly during the trial period. According to our results, it could be possible to exclude raw milk as a source of Leptospira infection for consumers.

  17. Multiple-Time-Scales Hierarchical Frequency Stability Control Strategy of Medium-Voltage Isolated Microgrid

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Zhao, Zhuoli; Yang, Ping; Guerrero, Josep M.

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, an islanded medium-voltage (MV) microgrid placed in Dongao Island is presented, which integrates renewable-energy-based distributed generations (DGs), energy storage system (ESS), and local loads. In an isolated microgrid without connection to the main grid to support the frequency......, it is more complex to control and manage. Thus in order to maintain the frequency stability in multiple-time-scales, a hierarchical control strategy is proposed. The proposed control architecture divides the system frequency in three zones: (A) stable zone, (B) precautionary zone and (C) emergency zone....... In this way, dynamic stability control that cope with disturbances in short-time scale is implemented by microgrid central controller (MGCC) within Zone B and Zone C. Meanwhile, steady-state stability control to solve the peaks and valleys problem of loads and DGs in long-time scale is executed by microgrid...

  18. Conditional Survival: An Assessment of the Prognosis of Patients at Time Points After Initial Diagnosis and Treatment of Locoregional Melanoma Metastasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haydu, Lauren E; Scolyer, Richard A; Lo, Serigne; Quinn, Michael J; Saw, Robyn P M; Shannon, Kerwin F; Spillane, Andrew J; Stretch, Jonathan R; McCarthy, William H; Thompson, John F

    2017-05-20

    Purpose Standard cancer staging and prognostic estimates are determined at the time of the patient's initial disease presentation. Conditional survival is an alternative, dynamic assessment from follow-up time points after the initial disease diagnosis and is based on the condition of survivorship. Estimates of conditional survival can provide critical prognostic information for patients and clinicians, guide subsequent cancer follow-up schedules, and influence decisions regarding treatments. The current study presents conditional survival estimates developed from a cohort of 4,540 patients diagnosed with stage III melanoma treated at a single institution. Methods Patients with stage III disease at first melanoma diagnosis (initial; n = 2,042), or who developed locoregional metastasis as a first recurrence some time after primary diagnosis (recurrent; n = 2,498), were assessed. Conditional melanoma-specific survival (MSS) estimates up to 5 years after diagnosis were adjusted for age, sex, and 8th edition American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stage. Results Older age at diagnosis of stage III disease conveyed a worse prognosis at each conditional survival time point. Males had significantly worse MSS outcomes for up to 2 years of conditional survival, after which males and females had similar MSS. For patients with AJCC stage IIIB and stage IIIC disease, MSS outcomes were similar to those of patients with stage IIIA disease after 3 and 5 years of survivorship, respectively. Conclusion Adjuvant systemic treatments may have the greatest benefit when administered within the first 2 years of stage III melanoma diagnosis, during which period prognosis is significantly worse for male patients of increasing age and AJCC substage. Conditional survival estimates illustrate improved survival prospects for patients with cancer returning for follow-up and may define a finite period of increased risk after diagnosis.

  19. Cavity-Enhanced Real-Time Monitoring of Single-Charge Jumps at the Microsecond Time Scale

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. Arnold

    2014-04-01

    Full Text Available We use fast coherent reflectivity measurements, in a strongly coupled quantum dot micropillar device, to monitor in real time single-charge jumps at the microsecond time scale. Thanks to the strong enhancement of light-matter interaction inside the cavity, and to a close to shot-noise-limited detection setup, the measurement rate is 5 orders of magnitude faster than with previous optical experiments of direct single-charge sensing with quantum dots. The monitored transitions, identified at any given time with a less than 0.2% error probability, correspond to a carrier being captured and then released by a single material defect. This high-speed technique opens the way for the real-time monitoring of other rapid single quantum events, such as the quantum jumps of a single spin.

  20. Enhanced identification and exploitation of time scales for model reduction in stochastic chemical kinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gómez-Uribe, Carlos A; Verghese, George C; Tzafriri, Abraham R

    2008-12-28

    Widely different time scales are common in systems of chemical reactions and can be exploited to obtain reduced models applicable to the time scales of interest. These reduced models enable more efficient computation and simplify analysis. A classic example is the irreversible enzymatic reaction, for which separation of time scales in a deterministic mass action kinetics model results in approximate rate laws for the slow dynamics, such as that of Michaelis-Menten. Recently, several methods have been developed for separation of slow and fast time scales in chemical master equation (CME) descriptions of stochastic chemical kinetics, yielding separate reduced CMEs for the slow variables and the fast variables. The paper begins by systematizing the preliminary step of identifying slow and fast variables in a chemical system from a specification of the slow and fast reactions in the system. The authors then present an enhanced time-scale-separation method that can extend the validity and improve the accuracy of existing methods by better accounting for slow reactions when equilibrating the fast subsystem. The resulting method is particularly accurate in systems such as enzymatic and protein interaction networks, where the rates of the slow reactions that modify the slow variables are not a function of the slow variables. The authors apply their methodology to the case of an irreversible enzymatic reaction and show that the resulting improvements in accuracy and validity are analogous to those obtained in the deterministic case by using the total quasi-steady-state approximation rather than the classical Michaelis-Menten. The other main contribution of this paper is to show how mass fluctuation kinetics models, which give approximate evolution equations for the means, variances, and covariances of the concentrations in a chemical system, can feed into time-scale-separation methods at a variety of stages.

  1. Quantifying nearshore morphological recovery time scales using argus video imaging : Palm Beach, Sydney and Duck, North Carolina

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ranasinghe, R.W.M.R.J.B.; Holman, R.; De Schipper, M.A.; Lippmann, T.; Wehof, J.; Duong, T.M.; Roelvink, D.; Stive, M.J.F.

    2012-01-01

    Time scales of post-storm nearshore morphological recovery and physical processes governing these time scales are poorly understood at present. The ability to predict nearshore morphological recovery time scales based on pre-, during- or post-resetting storm conditions is an essential requirement

  2. Soot aging time scales in polluted regions during day and night

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Riemer

    2004-01-01

    Full Text Available The aging of soot is one of the key uncertainties in the estimation of both the direct and indirect climate effect. While freshly emitted soot is initially hydrophobic and externally mixed, it can be transferred into an internal mixture by coagulation, condensation or photochemical processes. These aging processes affect the hygroscopic qualities and hence the growth behaviour, the optical properties and eventually the lifetime of the soot particles. However, due to computational limits the aging of soot in global climate models is often only parameterised by an estimated turnover rate resulting in a lifetime of soot of several days. Hence, the aging process of soot is one of the key uncertainties governing the burden and effect of black carbon. In this study, we discuss the time scale on which diesel soot is transferred from an external to an internal mixture based on the results of our simulations with a comprehensive mesoscale model. For daytime conditions during summer condensation of sulphuric acid is dominant and the aging process occurs on a time scale of τ =8h close to the sources and τ =2h above the source region. During winter comparable time scales are found but ammonium nitrate becomes more important. During night time condensation is not effective. Then coagulation is the most important aging process and our results show time scales between 10h and 40h.

  3. Scaling analysis of high-frequency time series of gamma-ray counts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barbosa, Susana; Azevedo, Eduardo

    2017-04-01

    Gamma radiation is being monitored in a dedicated campaign set-up at the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) facility located in the Graciosa island (Azores), a fixed site of the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement programme (ARM), established and supported by the Department of Energy (DOE) of the United States of America with the collaboration of the Government of the Autonomous Region of the Azores and University of the Azores. The temporal variability of gamma radiation is mainly determined by the time-varying concentration of radon progeny, which in turn is influenced by meteorological conditions and precipitation scavenging. The resulting time series of high-frequency (1-minute) gamma-ray counts displays therefore a complex temporal structure on multiple time scales, including long-range dependent behavior. This work addresses the scaling properties of the time series of gamma-ray counts from the ENA site (data freely available from the ARM data archive) using both wavelet and model-based methods for the estimation of the scaling exponent. The time series is dominated by sharp peaks associated with events of strong precipitation. The effect of these peaks on the estimation of the scaling exponent, as well as the effect of temporal aggregation (1-minute versus 15-minute aggregated data) is further addressed.

  4. Plotting systolic, diastolic, and pulse pressure on a real time scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velden, M; Wölk, C

    1990-11-01

    Since a valid non-invasive method for continuously measuring blood pressure is available for the psychophysiological laboratory, a procedure must be found for depicting blood pressure characteristics (systolic, diastolic, pulse pressure) on a real time scale, that is not simply from one heartbeat to the next. Values for blood pressure characteristics are actualized by heartbeats and thus occur at discrete points in time only, quite like values for heart rate. It is being assumed that the conditions for the blood pressure characteristics vary continuously, however, and that a value, actualized by a heartbeat, is representative for a time interval extending halfway before and after the point in time where it occurs. For computing a value for a real time interval it is proposed to weight the blood pressure values according to the amount of time their respective time intervals extend within the real time interval.

  5. A Statistical Analysis of the Scaling Laws for the Confinement Time Distinguishing between Core and Edge

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peluso, E.; Gelfusa, M.; Murari, A.; Lupelli, I.; Gaudio, P.

    The H mode of confinement in Tokamaks is characterized by a thin region of high gradients, located at the edge of the plasma and called the Edge Transport Barrier. Even if various theoretical models have been proposed for the interpretation of the edge physics, the main empirical scaling laws of the plasma confinement time are expressed in terms of global plasma parameters and they do not discriminate between the edge and core regions. Moreover all the scaling laws are assumed to be power law monomials. In the present paper, a new methodology is proposed to investigate the validity of both assumptions. The approach is based on Symbolic Regression via Genetic Programming and allows first the extraction of the most statistically reliable models from the available experimental data in the ITPA database. Non linear fitting is then applied to the mathematical expressions found by Symbolic regression. The obtained scaling laws are compared with the traditional scalings in power law form.

  6. Time-variable gravity potential components for optical clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voigt, C.; Denker, H.; Timmen, L.

    2016-12-01

    The latest generation of optical atomic clocks is approaching the level of one part in 1018 in terms of frequency stability and uncertainty. For clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales, a relativistic redshift effect of the clock frequencies has to be taken into account at a corresponding uncertainty level of about 0.1 m2 s-2 and 0.01 m in terms of gravity potential and height, respectively. Besides the predominant static part of the gravity potential, temporal variations must be considered in order to avoid systematic frequency shifts. Time-variable gravity potential components induced by tides and non-tidal mass redistributions are investigated with regard to the level of one part in 1018. The magnitudes and dominant time periods of the individual gravity potential contributions are investigated globally and for specific laboratory sites together with the related uncertainty estimates. The basics of the computation methods are presented along with the applied models, data sets and software. Solid Earth tides contribute by far the most dominant signal with a global maximum amplitude of 4.2 m2 s-2 for the potential and a range (maximum-to-minimum) of up to 1.3 and 10.0 m2 s-2 in terms of potential differences between specific laboratories over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. Amplitudes of the ocean tidal loading potential can amount up to 1.25 m2 s-2, while the range of the potential between specific laboratories is 0.3 and 1.1 m2 s-2 over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. These are the only two contributors being relevant at a 10-17 level. However, several other time-variable potential effects can particularly affect clock comparisons at the 10-18 level. Besides solid Earth pole tides, these are non-tidal mass redistributions in the atmosphere, the oceans and the continental water storage.

  7. Cosmological special relativity the large scale structure of space, time and velocity

    CERN Document Server

    Carmeli, Moshe

    1997-01-01

    This book deals with special relativity theory and its application to cosmology. It presents Einstein's theory of space and time in detail, and describes the large scale structure of space, time and velocity as a new cosmological special relativity. A cosmological Lorentz-like transformation, which relates events at different cosmic times, is derived and applied. A new law of addition of cosmic times is obtained, and the inflation of the space at the early universe is derived, both from the cosmological transformation. The book will be of interest to cosmologists, astrophysicists, theoretical

  8. Cosmological special relativity the large scale structure of space, time and velocity

    CERN Document Server

    Carmeli, Moshe

    2002-01-01

    This book presents Einstein's theory of space and time in detail, and describes the large-scale structure of space, time and velocity as a new cosmological special relativity. A cosmological Lorentz-like transformation, which relates events at different cosmic times, is derived and applied. A new law of addition of cosmic times is obtained, and the inflation of the space at the early universe is derived, both from the cosmological transformation. The relationship between cosmic velocity, acceleration and distances is given. In the appendices gravitation is added in the form of a cosmological g

  9. Volatility Clustering and Scaling for Financial Time Series due to Attractor Bubbling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Krawiecki, A.; Hołyst, J. A.; Helbing, D.

    2002-09-01

    A microscopic model of financial markets is considered, consisting of many interacting agents (spins) with global coupling and discrete-time heat bath dynamics, similar to random Ising systems. The interactions between agents change randomly in time. In the thermodynamic limit, the obtained time series of price returns show chaotic bursts resulting from the emergence of attractor bubbling or on-off intermittency, resembling the empirical financial time series with volatility clustering. For a proper choice of the model parameters, the probability distributions of returns exhibit power-law tails with scaling exponents close to the empirical ones.

  10. Hierarchical Dynamics of Ecological Communities: Do Scales of Space and Time Match?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angeler, David G.; Göthe, Emma; Johnson, Richard K.

    2013-01-01

    Theory posits that community dynamics organize at distinct hierarchical scales of space and time, and that the spatial and temporal patterns at each scale are commensurate. Here we use time series modeling to investigate fluctuation frequencies of species groups within invertebrate metacommunities in 26 boreal lakes over a 20-year period, and variance partitioning analysis to study whether species groups with different fluctuation patterns show spatial signals that are commensurate with the scale-specific fluctuation patterns identified. We identified two groups of invertebrates representing hierarchically organized temporal dynamics: one species group showed temporal variability at decadal scales (slow patterns of change), whilst another group showed fluctuations at 3 to 5-year intervals (faster change). This pattern was consistently found across all lakes studied. A spatial signal was evident in the slow but not faster-changing species groups. As expected, the spatial signal for the slow-changing group coincided with broad-scale spatial patterns that could be explained with historical biogeography (ecoregion delineation, and dispersal limitation assessed through a dispersal trait analysis). In addition to spatial factors, the slow-changing groups correlated with environmental variables, supporting the conjecture that boreal lakes are undergoing environmental change. Taken together our results suggest that regionally distinct sets of taxa, separated by biogeographical boundaries, responded similarly to broad-scale environmental change. Not only does our approach allow testing theory about hierarchically structured space-time patterns; more generally, it allows assessing the relative role of the ability of communities to track environmental change and dispersal constraints limiting community structure and biodiversity at macroecological scales. PMID:23874905

  11. A Systematic Multi-Time Scale Solution for Regional Power Grid Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, W. J.; Liu, Z. G.; Cheng, T.; Hu, B. Q.; Liu, X. Z.; Zhou, Y. F.

    2017-10-01

    Many aspects need to be taken into consideration in a regional grid while making schedule plans. In this paper, a systematic multi-time scale solution for regional power grid operation considering large scale renewable energy integration and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission is proposed. In the time scale aspect, we discuss the problem from month, week, day-ahead, within-day to day-behind, and the system also contains multiple generator types including thermal units, hydro-plants, wind turbines and pumped storage stations. The 9 subsystems of the scheduling system are described, and their functions and relationships are elaborated. The proposed system has been constructed in a provincial power grid in Central China, and the operation results further verified the effectiveness of the system.

  12. Spike-contrast: A novel time scale independent and multivariate measure of spike train synchrony.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ciba, Manuel; Isomura, Takuya; Jimbo, Yasuhiko; Bahmer, Andreas; Thielemann, Christiane

    2018-01-01

    Synchrony within neuronal networks is thought to be a fundamental feature of neuronal networks. In order to quantify synchrony between spike trains, various synchrony measures were developed. Most of them are time scale dependent and thus require the setting of an appropriate time scale. Recently, alternative methods have been developed, such as the time scale independent SPIKE-distance by Kreuz et al. In this study, a novel time-scale independent spike train synchrony measure called Spike-contrast is proposed. The algorithm is based on the temporal "contrast" (activity vs. non-activity in certain temporal bins) and not only provides a single synchrony value, but also a synchrony curve as a function of the bin size. For most test data sets synchrony values obtained with Spike-contrast are highly correlated with those of the SPIKE-distance (Spearman correlation value of 0.99). Correlation was lower for data containing multiple time scales (Spearman correlation value of 0.89). When analyzing large sets of data, Spike-contrast performed faster. Spike-contrast is compared to the SPIKE-distance algorithm. The test data consisted of artificial spike trains with various levels of synchrony, including Poisson spike trains and bursts, spike trains from simulated neuronal Izhikevich networks, and bursts made of smaller bursts (sub-bursts). The high correlation of Spike-contrast with the established SPIKE-distance for most test data, suggests the suitability of the proposed measure. Both measures are complementary as SPIKE-distance provides a synchrony profile over time, whereas Spike-contrast provides a synchrony curve over bin size. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  13. Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

    2018-01-01

    The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns

  14. A pilot plant scale evaluation of a new process aid for enhancing chlorine efficacy against pathogen survival and cross-contamination during produce wash.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Yaguang; Nou, Xiangwu; Millner, Patricia; Zhou, Bin; Shen, Cangliang; Yang, Yang; Wu, Yunpeng; Wang, Qin; Feng, Hao; Shelton, Dan

    2012-08-17

    Developing food safety intervention technology that can be readily adopted by the industry often requires test conditions that match as closely as possible to those of commercial food processing operations; yet biosafety risks inherent in pathogen studies constrain most experiments to laboratory settings. In this study, we report the first semi-commercial pilot-scale evaluation of a new process aid, T128, for its impact on enhancing the antimicrobial efficacy of chlorinated wash water against pathogen survival and cross-contamination. A non-pathogenic, BSL-1, strain of Escherichia coli O157:H7 was inoculated onto freshly harvested baby spinach leaves and washed with large amounts of freshly cut un-inoculated iceberg lettuce shreds in wash water with free chlorine periodically replenished, in the presence or absence of T128. Changes in water quality and pathogen survival and cross-contamination were monitored at every 2 min intervals for up to 36 min for each treatment during the wash operation. Results indicated that the use of T128 did not significantly (P>0.05) influence the rate of wash water deterioration, nor the pathogen populations remaining on the inoculated spinach leaves. However, in the absence of T128 (control), survival of E. coli O157:H7 in wash water and cross-contamination of un-inoculated lettuce frequently occurred when free chlorine in solution dropped below 1mg/l during the wash process. In contrast, the use of T128 significantly reduced the occurrence of E. coli O157:H7 surviving in wash water and of cross-contamination to un-inoculated shredded iceberg lettuce under the same operational conditions, suggesting that the application of T128 in a chlorine-based fresh produce sanitization system could increase the safety margin of process control on fresh-cut operations. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  15. Effects of cadmium and a one-time drought stress on survival, growth, and yield of native plant species

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Miles, L.J.; Parker, G.R.

    1980-04-01

    Andropogon scoparius, Monarda fistulosa, and Rudbeckia hirta were grown from seed for 6 weeks in an uncontaminated rural site soil and a heavy metal-contaminated urban site soil. The rural site soil was amended with cadmium chloride. Plants grown in both soils were subjected to a one-time drought stress. Survival, shoot weight, root weight, total weight, height, and weekly growth of Andropogon and Monarda were adversely affected by cadmium (Cd) addition and drought stress. Results were similar for Rudbeckia except that shoot, root, and total weight were not significantly affected by drought stress. Root weights of Monarda and Andropogon were more severely affected by Cd addition than were shoot weights. Root-shoot ratios were not significantly affected by drought stress for any species. Drought stress and Cd addition effects were found to be additive for Monarda and Andropogon. The effect of soil Cd addition on growth was found to be primarily due to an initial delay in growth rather than a reduction in the overall rate of growth. However, on the heavy metal contamination urban site soil the growth rate was found to be reduced. This was especially true for Andropogon which was found to be most tolerant of Cd addition to the rural site soil for the species tested. The reduction in growth rate of plants on the urban site soil was probably not due to Cd alone.

  16. Comparison of survival time of Hawley and Vacuum-formed retainers in orthhodontic patients– a randomized clinical trial

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Seyed Hossein Moslemzadeh

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Maintaining the results of orthodontic treatment and keeping the teeth in the corrected position is a great challenge in orthodontics. This study aimed to compare the survival time of three types of retainers including Hawley, 1-mm Vacuum-Formed (VF, and 1.5-mm VF within 6-month period. Methods: In this randomized clinical study, 152 patients were allocated into three groups to receive one type of the retainers. They were visited 1, 3, and 6 months after retainer delivery and checked for breakage, loss, local perforation, and discoloration from the patient's and clinician's point of view as indicators of failure. Chi-square and Fisher's exact tests were used as appropriated. Result: The results revealed that breakage was among the main reasons of failure of retainers within 6 months, which was statistically significantly different between Hawley and VF retainers, as well as between 1-mm and 1.5-mm VF retainers in the three intervals (p0.05. Assessing the discoloration from the patient's point of view revealed statistically significant differences between Hawley and VF retainers within the first month; however, the difference was not significant at the third and sixth months (p0.05. By the end of the sixth month, some of the VF retainers had perforation; while, perforation was not observed in Hawley retainers. Conclusion: Considering the higher breakage rate of 1-mm VF, 1.5-mm VF seems the retainer if choice.

  17. Transgenerational effects of parental nutritional status on offspring development time, survival, fecundity, and sensitivity to zinc in Chironomus tepperi midges.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Colombo, Valentina; Pettigrove, Vincent J; Golding, Lisa A; Hoffmann, Ary A

    2014-12-01

    Environmental stimuli can induce plastic changes in life history traits, and stimuli experienced by parents can be transmitted to the next generation ("transgenerational") through the inheritance of factors unrelated to changes in DNA sequences. Transgenerational effects are common in species living in habitats subjected to recurrent stressful events, such as fluctuating resource availability. In a previous study, the nutritional status of the midge Chironomus tepperi has been reported to influence life history traits of the offspring. In this study we investigated whether they also alter sensitivity of offspring to zinc. Offspring of parents reared under low food conditions had a shorter development time and lower reproductive output compared to offspring of parents raised under excess food. While zinc exposure decreased the survival of offspring generally, the interaction between parental food level and zinc exposure did not influence the relative sensitivity of offspring toward zinc. Parental nutritional stress therefore triggered transgenerational effects, potentially acting as confounding factors in ecotoxicological studies, but they did not directly affect the susceptibility of offspring to zinc. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Mental health selection and income support dynamics: multiple spell discrete-time survival analyses of welfare receipt.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiely, Kim M; Butterworth, Peter

    2014-04-01

    The higher occurrence of common psychiatric disorders among welfare recipients has been attributed to health selection, social causation and underlying vulnerability. The aims of this study were to test for the selection effects of mental health problems on entry and re-entry to working-age welfare payments in respect to single parenthood, unemployment and disability. Nationally representative longitudinal data were drawn from the Household Income and Labour Dynamics in Australia survey. Multiple spell discrete-time survival analyses were conducted using multinomial logistic regression models to test if pre-existing mental health problems predicted transitions to welfare. Analyses were stratified by sex and multivariate adjusted for mental health problems, father's occupation, socioeconomic position, marital status, employment history, smoking status and alcohol consumption, physical function and financial hardship. All covariates were modelled as either lagged effects or when a respondent was first observed to be at risk of income support. Mental health problems were associated with increased risk of entry and re-entry to disability, unemployment and single parenting payments for women, and disability and unemployment payments for men. These associations were attenuated but remained significant after adjusting for contemporaneous risk factors. Although we do not control for reciprocal causation, our findings are consistent with a health selection hypothesis and indicate that mental illness may be a contributing factor to later receipt of different types of welfare payments. We argue that mental health warrants consideration in the design and targeting of social and economic policies.

  19. Sensitivity of the breastfeeding motivational measurement scale: a known group analysis of first time mothers.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janine Stockdale

    Full Text Available Breastfeeding has immense public health value for mothers, babies, and society. But there is an undesirably large gap between the number of new mothers who undertake and persist in breastfeeding compared to what would be a preferred level of accomplishment. This gap is a reflection of the many obstacles, both physical and psychological, that confront new mothers. Previous research has illuminated many of these concerns, but research on this problem is limited in part by the unavailability of a research instrument that can measure the key differences between first-time mothers and experienced mothers, with regard to the challenges they face when breastfeeding and the instructional advice they require. An instrument was designed to measure motivational complexity associated with sustained breast feeding behaviour; the Breastfeeding Motivational Measurement Scale. It contains 51 self-report items (7 point Likert scale that cluster into four categories related to perceived value of breast-feeding, confidence to succeed, factors that influence success or failure, and strength of intentions, or goal. However, this scale has not been validated in terms of its sensitivity to profile the motivation of new mothers and experienced mothers. This issue was investigated by having 202 breastfeeding mothers (100 first time mothers fill out the scale. The analysis reported in this paper is a three factor solution consisting of value, midwife support, and expectancies for success that explained the characteristics of first time mothers as a known group. These results support the validity of the BMM scale as a diagnostic tool for research on first time mothers who are learning to breastfeed. Further research studies are required to further test the validity of the scale in additional subgroups.

  20. Sensitivity of the breastfeeding motivational measurement scale: a known group analysis of first time mothers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdale, Janine; Sinclair, Marlene; Kernohan, George; McCrum-Gardner, Evie; Keller, John

    2013-01-01

    Breastfeeding has immense public health value for mothers, babies, and society. But there is an undesirably large gap between the number of new mothers who undertake and persist in breastfeeding compared to what would be a preferred level of accomplishment. This gap is a reflection of the many obstacles, both physical and psychological, that confront new mothers. Previous research has illuminated many of these concerns, but research on this problem is limited in part by the unavailability of a research instrument that can measure the key differences between first-time mothers and experienced mothers, with regard to the challenges they face when breastfeeding and the instructional advice they require. An instrument was designed to measure motivational complexity associated with sustained breast feeding behaviour; the Breastfeeding Motivational Measurement Scale. It contains 51 self-report items (7 point Likert scale) that cluster into four categories related to perceived value of breast-feeding, confidence to succeed, factors that influence success or failure, and strength of intentions, or goal. However, this scale has not been validated in terms of its sensitivity to profile the motivation of new mothers and experienced mothers. This issue was investigated by having 202 breastfeeding mothers (100 first time mothers) fill out the scale. The analysis reported in this paper is a three factor solution consisting of value, midwife support, and expectancies for success that explained the characteristics of first time mothers as a known group. These results support the validity of the BMM scale as a diagnostic tool for research on first time mothers who are learning to breastfeed. Further research studies are required to further test the validity of the scale in additional subgroups.

  1. Jump robust two time scale covariance estimation and realized volatility budgets

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Boudt, K.M.R.; Zhang, J.

    2015-01-01

    We estimate the daily integrated variance and covariance of stock returns using high-frequency data in the presence of jumps, market microstructure noise and non-synchronous trading. For this we propose jump robust two time scale (co)variance estimators and verify their reduced bias and mean square

  2. Short time-scale variability in the Faint Sky Variability Survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Morales-Rueda, L.; Groot, P.J.; Augusteijn, T.; Nelemans, G.A.; Vreeswijk, P.M.; Besselaar, E.J.M. van den

    2006-01-01

    We present the V-band variability analysis of the point sources in the Faint Sky Variability Survey on time-scales from 24 min to tens of days. We find that about one per cent of the point sources down to V = 24 are variables. We discuss the variability-detection probabilities for each field

  3. Optically stimulated phosphorescence in orthoclase feldspar over the millisecond to second time scale

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ankjærgaard, Christina; Jain, Mayank

    2010-01-01

    ) from orthoclase feldspar covering over 8 orders of magnitude (50 ns to 7 s). A detailed characterisation of the slowly decaying signals (ms to s time scales) from feldspar is undertaken to obtain further insight into the role of re-trapping in both the IR stimulated luminescence (IRSL...

  4. Oscillation Criteria for Second-Order Nonlinear Dynamic Equations on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shao-Yan Zhang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with oscillation of second-order nonlinear dynamic equations of the form on time scales. By using a generalized Riccati technique and integral averaging techniques, we establish new oscillation criteria which handle some cases not covered by known criteria.

  5. A Strong Limit Theorem for Two-Time-Scale Fucntional Stochastic Differential Equations

    OpenAIRE

    Bao, Jianhai; Song, Qingshuo; Yin, George; Yuan, Chenggui

    2015-01-01

    This paper focuses on a class of two-time-scale functional stochastic differential equations, where the phase space of the segment processes is infinite-dimensional. It develops ergodicity of the fast component and obtains a strong limit theorem for the averaging principle in the spirit of Khasminskii's averaging approach for the slow component.

  6. A Visual Method of Time Scale Determination using a PC for Radio ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    2016-01-27

    Jan 27, 2016 ... Variability is one of the extremely observational properties. In the radio bands, variability is caused by the shock in the jet. In this case, emissions increase rapidly following an exponential curve, and then decrease rapidly also in an exponential curve. The variability time scale is important with regard to the ...

  7. A Visual Method of Time Scale Determination using a PC for Radio ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    A Visual Method of Time Scale Determination using a PC for Radio Sources. Yong Huang1,2,∗. , Jun-Hui Fan2,3 & Jing Pan2,3. 1School of Computer Science & Educational Software, Guangzhou University,. Guangzhou, China. 2Astronomy Science and Technology Research Laboratory of Department of Education.

  8. Anti-control of chaos of single time-scale brushless DC motor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Zheng-Ming; Chang, Ching-Ming; Chen, Yen-Sheng

    2006-09-15

    Anti-control of chaos of single time-scale brushless DC motors is studied in this paper. In order to analyse a variety of periodic and chaotic phenomena, we employ several numerical techniques such as phase portraits, bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents. Anti-control of chaos can be achieved by adding an external constant term or an external periodic term.

  9. Labour productivity, economies of scale and opening time in large retail establishments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    A.R. Thurik (Roy)

    1984-01-01

    textabstractDifferences in labour productivity are dealt with for large French retail establishments. Influences of scale, weekly opening time, assortment composition, wage rate and share of counter service are considered. The relationship used is a result of analyses in the field of small retail

  10. Existence of Solutions for Nonlinear Four-Point -Laplacian Boundary Value Problems on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Topal SGulsan

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available We are concerned with proving the existence of positive solutions of a nonlinear second-order four-point boundary value problem with a -Laplacian operator on time scales. The proofs are based on the fixed point theorems concerning cones in a Banach space. Existence result for -Laplacian boundary value problem is also given by the monotone method.

  11. Positive Solutions of a Nonlinear Fourth-Order Dynamic Eigenvalue Problem on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hua Luo

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Let T be a time scale and a,b∈T, aλ*, respectively, for some λ*. The main tools to prove the existence results are the Schauder fixed point theorem and the upper and lower solution method.

  12. Hardy inequality on time scales and its application to half-linear dynamic equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Řehák Pavel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A time-scale version of the Hardy inequality is presented, which unifies and extends well-known Hardy inequalities in the continuous and in the discrete setting. An application in the oscillation theory of half-linear dynamic equations is given.

  13. Solution Matching for a Second Order Boundary Value Problem on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Aprillya Lanz

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available Let be a time scale such that <;,∈. We will show the existence and uniqueness of solutions for the second-order boundary value problem ΔΔ(=(,(,Δ(,∈[,],(=,(=, by matching a solution of the first equation satisfying boundary conditions on [,] with a solution of the first equation satisfying boundary conditions on [,], where ∈(,.

  14. Theoretical and Numerical Properties of a Gyrokinetic Plasma: Issues Related to Transport Time Scale Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    W.W. Lee

    2003-09-17

    Particle simulation has played an important role for the recent investigations on turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas. In this paper, theoretical and numerical properties of a gyrokinetic plasma as well as its relationship with magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) are discussed with the ultimate aim of simulating microturbulence in transport time scale using massively parallel computers.

  15. Development and Preliminary Validation of the Time Management for Exercise Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellsten, Laurie-ann M.; Rogers, W. Todd

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to collect preliminary validity evidence for a time management scale for exercise. An initial pool of 91 items was developed from existing literature. Ten exercise/health psychologists evaluated each of the items in terms of relevance and representativeness. Forty-nine items met all criteria. Exploratory factor…

  16. Improving Building Performance at Urban Scale with a Framework for Real-time Data Sharing

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Pang, Xiufeng; Hong, Tianzhen; Piette, Mary Ann

    2013-06-03

    This paper describes work in progress toward an urban-scale system aiming to reduce energy use in neighboring buildings by providing three components: a database for accessing past and present weather data from high quality weather stations; a network for communicating energy-saving strategies between building owners; and a set of modeling tools for real-time building energy simulation.

  17. Extension of the astronomically calibrated (polarity) time scale to the Miocene/Pliocene boundary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilgen, F.J.

    1991-01-01

    The early Pleistocene to late Pliocene astronormcally calibrated time scale of Shackleton et al. [1] and Hllgen [2] is extended to the Mlocene/Pllocene boundary This is done by correlating the detailed record of CaCO 3 cycles in the Trubl and the lower part of the overlying Narbone Formation

  18. Identifying time scales for violation/preservation of Stokes-Einstein relation in supercooled water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kawasaki, Takeshi; Kim, Kang

    2017-08-01

    The violation of the Stokes-Einstein (SE) relation D ~ (η/T)-1 between the shear viscosity η and the translational diffusion constant D at temperature T is of great importance for characterizing anomalous dynamics of supercooled water. Determining which time scales play key roles in the SE violation remains elusive without the measurement of η. We provide comprehensive simulation results of the dynamic properties involving η and D in the TIP4P/2005 supercooled water. This enabled the thorough identification of the appropriate time scales for the SE relation Dη/T. In particular, it is demonstrated that the temperature dependence of various time scales associated with structural relaxation, hydrogen bond breakage, stress relaxation, and dynamic heterogeneities can be definitely classified into only two classes. That is, we propose the generalized SE relations that exhibit "violation" or "preservation." The classification depends on the examined time scales that are coupled or decoupled with the diffusion. On the basis of the classification, we explain the physical origins of the violation in terms of the increase in the plateau modulus and the nonexponentiality of stress relaxation. This implies that the mechanism of SE violation is attributed to the attained solidity upon supercooling, which is in accord with the growth of non-Gaussianity and spatially heterogeneous dynamics.

  19. Time scales: from Nabla calculus to Delta calculus and vice versa via duality

    OpenAIRE

    Caputo, M. Cristina

    2009-01-01

    In this note we show how one can obtain results from the nabla calculus from results on the delta calculus and vice versa via a duality argument. We provide applications of the main results to the calculus of variations on time scales.

  20. Assessment of the methods for determining net radiation at different time-scales of meteorological variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ni An

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available When modeling the soil/atmosphere interaction, it is of paramount importance to determine the net radiation flux. There are two common calculation methods for this purpose. Method 1 relies on use of air temperature, while Method 2 relies on use of both air and soil temperatures. Nowadays, there has been no consensus on the application of these two methods. In this study, the half-hourly data of solar radiation recorded at an experimental embankment are used to calculate the net radiation and long-wave radiation at different time-scales (half-hourly, hourly, and daily using the two methods. The results show that, compared with Method 2 which has been widely adopted in agronomical, geotechnical and geo-environmental applications, Method 1 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at shorter time-scale. Moreover, in case of longer time-scale, daily for instance, less variations of net radiation and long-wave radiation are obtained, suggesting that no detailed soil temperature variations can be obtained. In other words, shorter time-scales are preferred in determining net radiation flux.

  1. Time scale of scour around a pile in combined waves and current

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Thor Ugelvig; Sumer, B. Mutlu; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    The time scale of the scour process around a circular vertical pile is studied in combined waves and current. A series of tests were carried out in a flume with pile diameters 40 mm and 75 mm, in both steady current, waves and combined waves and current. In the combined wave and current flow regime...

  2. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the D-loop region of mitochondrial DNA is associated with the kidney survival time in chronic kidney disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jinsheng; Guo, Zhanjun; Bai, Yaling; Zhang, Junxia; Cui, Liwen; Zhang, Huiran; Zhang, Shenglei; Ai, Xiaolu

    2015-02-01

    The mitochondrial displacement loop (D-loop) is known to accumulate mutations and SNPs at a higher frequency than other regions of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). We had identified chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk-associated SNPs in the D-loop of CKD patients previously. In this study, we investigated the association of SNPs in the D-loop of mtDNA with the kidney survival of CKD. The D-loop region of mtDNA was sequenced for 119 CKD patients from the inpatient of the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to identify disease outcome-associated SNPs in the D-loop of CKD patients. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify risk factors for the kidney survival of CKD. In the present study, we identified 20 SNPs with a frequency higher than 5% and assessed the relationship of these SNPs with kidney survival time in CKD patients, a SNP of 146 was identified by log-rank test for statistically significant prediction of the kidney survival time. In an overall multivariate analysis, allele 146 was identified as an independent predictor of kidney survival time in CKD patients. The survival time of kidney in the CKD patients with 146C was significantly shorter than that of kidney in CKD patients with 146T (relative risk, 2.336; 95% CI, 1.319-3.923; p = 0.001). SNPs in the D-loop can predict the kidney survival of CKD patients. Analysis of genetic polymorphisms in the mitochondrial D-loop can help to identify CKD patient subgroup at high risk of a poor disease outcome.

  3. Quality of mixing in a stired bioreactor used for animal cells culture: heterogeneities in a lab scale bioreactor and evolution of mixing time with scale up

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Collignon, ML; Dossin, D; Delafosse, A; Crine, M; Toye, D

    2010-01-01

    .... The mixing time is measured by conductimetry inside 20 l, 80 l, 600 l tanks. The Grenville correlation is adjusted on these experimental measurements to improve the prediction of the mixing time during the scale-up of the...

  4. Multiple Physical Time Scales and Dead Time Rule in Few-Nanometers Sized Graphene-SiOx-Graphene Memristors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pósa, László; El Abbassi, Maria; Makk, Péter; Sánta, Botond; Nef, Cornelia; Csontos, Miklós; Calame, Michel; Halbritter, András

    2017-11-08

    The resistive switching behavior in SiOx-based phase change memory devices confined by few nanometer wide graphene nanogaps is investigated. Our experiments and analysis reveal that the switching dynamics is not only determined by the commonly observed bias voltage dependent set and reset times. We demonstrate that an internal time scale, the dead time, plays a fundamental role in the system's response to various driving signals. We associate the switching behavior with the formation of microscopically distinct SiOx amorphous and crystalline phases between the graphene electrodes. The reset transition is attributed to an amorphization process due to a voltage driven self-heating; it can be triggered at any time by appropriate voltage levels. In contrast, the formation of the crystalline ON state is conditional and only occurs after the completion of a thermally assisted structural rearrangement of the as-quenched OFF state which takes place within the dead time after a reset operation. Our results demonstrate the technological relevance of the dead time rule which enables a zero bias access of both the low and high resistance states of a phase change memory device by unipolar voltage pulses.

  5. The Urban Heat Island and its spatial scale dependent impact on survival and development in butterflies of different thermal sensitivity

    OpenAIRE

    Kaiser, Aur?lien; Merckx, Thomas; Van Dyck, Hans

    2016-01-01

    Abstract Climate alteration is one of the most cited ecological consequences of urbanization. However, the magnitude of this impact is likely to vary with spatial scale. We investigated how this alteration affects the biological fitness of insects, which are especially sensitive to ambient conditions and well?suited organisms to study urbanization?related changes in phenotypic traits. We monitored temperature and relative air humidity in wooded sites characterized by different levels of urban...

  6. Evolution of equilibrium Pickering emulsions--a matter of time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kraft, Daniela J; Luigjes, Bob; de Folter, Julius W J; Philipse, Albert P; Kegel, Willem K

    2010-09-30

    A new class of equilibrium solid-stabilized oil-in-water emulsions harbors a competition of two processes on disparate time scales that affect the equilibrium droplet size in opposing ways. The aim of this work is to elucidate the molecular origins of these two time scales and demonstrate their effects on the evolution of the emulsion droplet size. First, spontaneous emulsification into particle-covered droplets occurs through in situ generation of surface-active molecules by hydrolysis of molecules of the oil phase. We show that surface tensions of the oil-water interfaces in the absence of stabilizing colloidal particles are connected to the concentration of these surface-active molecules, and hence also to the equilibrium droplet size in the presence of colloids. As a consequence, the hydrolysis process sets the time scale of formation of these solid-stabilized emulsions. A second time scale is governing the ultimate fate of the solid-stabilized equilibrium emulsions: by condensation of the in situ generated amphiphilic molecules onto the colloidal particles, their wetting properties change, leading to a gradual transfer from the aqueous to the oil phase via growth of the emulsion droplets. This migration is observed macroscopically by a color change of the water and oil phases, as well as by electron microscopy after polymerization of the oil phase in a phase separated sample. Surprisingly, the relative oil volume sets the time scale of particle transfer. Phase separation into an aqueous phase and an oil phase containing colloidal particles is influenced by sedimentation of the emulsion droplets. The two processes of formation of surface-active molecules through hydrolysis and condensation thereof on the colloidal surface have an opposite influence on the droplet size. By their interplay, a dynamic equilibrium is created where the droplet size always adjusts to the thermodynamically stable state.

  7. The relationship between annual survival rate and migration distance in mallards: an examination of the time-allocation hypothesis for the evolution of migration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hestbeck, J.B.; Nichols, J.D.; Hines, J.E.

    1992-01-01

    Predictions of the time-allocation hypothesis were tested with several a posteriori analyses of banding data for the mallard (Anas platyrhynchos). The time-allocation hypothesis states that the critical difference between resident and migrant birds is their allocation of time to reproduction on the breeding grounds and survival on the nonbreeding grounds. Residents have higher reproduction and migrants have higher survival. Survival and recovery rates were estimated by standard band-recovery methods for banding reference areas in the central United States and central Canada. A production-rate index was computed for each reference area with data from the U.S. Fish and Wildlife Service May Breeding Population Survey and July Production Survey. An analysis of covariance was used to test for the effects of migration distance and time period (decade) on survival, recovery, and production rates. Differences in migration chronology were tested by comparing direct-recovery distributions for different populations during the fall migration. Differences in winter locations were tested by comparing distributions of direct recoveries reported during December and January. A strong positive relationship was found between survival rate, and migration distance for 3 of the 4 age and sex classes. A weak negative relationship was found between recovery rate and migration distance. No relationship was found between production rate and migration distance. During the fall migration, birds from the northern breeding populations were located north of birds from the southern breeding populations. No pattern could be found in the relative locations of breeding and wintering areas. Although our finding that survival rate increased with migration distance was consistent with the time-allocation hypothesis, our results on migration chronology and location of wintering areas were not consistent with the mechanism underlying the time-allocation hypothesis. Neither this analysis nor other recent

  8. A real-time multi-scale 2D Gaussian filter based on FPGA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Haibo; Gai, Xingqin; Chang, Zheng; Hui, Bin

    2014-11-01

    Multi-scale 2-D Gaussian filter has been widely used in feature extraction (e.g. SIFT, edge etc.), image segmentation, image enhancement, image noise removing, multi-scale shape description etc. However, their computational complexity remains an issue for real-time image processing systems. Aimed at this problem, we propose a framework of multi-scale 2-D Gaussian filter based on FPGA in this paper. Firstly, a full-hardware architecture based on parallel pipeline was designed to achieve high throughput rate. Secondly, in order to save some multiplier, the 2-D convolution is separated into two 1-D convolutions. Thirdly, a dedicate first in first out memory named as CAFIFO (Column Addressing FIFO) was designed to avoid the error propagating induced by spark on clock. Finally, a shared memory framework was designed to reduce memory costs. As a demonstration, we realized a 3 scales 2-D Gaussian filter on a single ALTERA Cyclone III FPGA chip. Experimental results show that, the proposed framework can computing a Multi-scales 2-D Gaussian filtering within one pixel clock period, is further suitable for real-time image processing. Moreover, the main principle can be popularized to the other operators based on convolution, such as Gabor filter, Sobel operator and so on.

  9. Robust scaling laws for energy confinement time, including radiated fraction, in Tokamaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, A.; Peluso, E.; Gaudio, P.; Gelfusa, M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, the limitations of scalings in power-law form that are obtained from traditional log regression have become increasingly evident in many fields of research. Given the wide gap in operational space between present-day and next-generation devices, robustness of the obtained models in guaranteeing reasonable extrapolability is a major issue. In this paper, a new technique, called symbolic regression, is reviewed, refined, and applied to the ITPA database for extracting scaling laws of the energy-confinement time at different radiated fraction levels. The main advantage of this new methodology is its ability to determine the most appropriate mathematical form of the scaling laws to model the available databases without the restriction of their having to be power laws. In a completely new development, this technique is combined with the concept of geodesic distance on Gaussian manifolds so as to take into account the error bars in the measurements and provide more reliable models. Robust scaling laws, including radiated fractions as regressor, have been found; they are not in power-law form, and are significantly better than the traditional scalings. These scaling laws, including radiated fractions, extrapolate quite differently to ITER, and therefore they require serious consideration. On the other hand, given the limitations of the existing databases, dedicated experimental investigations will have to be carried out to fully understand the impact of radiated fractions on the confinement in metallic machines and in the next generation of devices.

  10. Earth History databases and visualization - the TimeScale Creator system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogg, James; Lugowski, Adam; Gradstein, Felix

    2010-05-01

    The "TimeScale Creator" team (www.tscreator.org) and the Subcommission on Stratigraphic Information (stratigraphy.science.purdue.edu) of the International Commission on Stratigraphy (www.stratigraphy.org) has worked with numerous geoscientists and geological surveys to prepare reference datasets for global and regional stratigraphy. All events are currently calibrated to Geologic Time Scale 2004 (Gradstein et al., 2004, Cambridge Univ. Press) and Concise Geologic Time Scale (Ogg et al., 2008, Cambridge Univ. Press); but the array of intercalibrations enable dynamic adjustment to future numerical age scales and interpolation methods. The main "global" database contains over 25,000 events/zones from paleontology, geomagnetics, sea-level and sequence stratigraphy, igneous provinces, bolide impacts, plus several stable isotope curves and image sets. Several regional datasets are provided in conjunction with geological surveys, with numerical ages interpolated using a similar flexible inter-calibration procedure. For example, a joint program with Geoscience Australia has compiled an extensive Australian regional biostratigraphy and a full array of basin lithologic columns with each formation linked to public lexicons of all Proterozoic through Phanerozoic basins - nearly 500 columns of over 9,000 data lines plus hot-curser links to oil-gas reference wells. Other datapacks include New Zealand biostratigraphy and basin transects (ca. 200 columns), Russian biostratigraphy, British Isles regional stratigraphy, Gulf of Mexico biostratigraphy and lithostratigraphy, high-resolution Neogene stable isotope curves and ice-core data, human cultural episodes, and Circum-Arctic stratigraphy sets. The growing library of datasets is designed for viewing and chart-making in the free "TimeScale Creator" JAVA package. This visualization system produces a screen display of the user-selected time-span and the selected columns of geologic time scale information. The user can change the

  11. A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

    2015-01-21

    There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  12. Multi-time Scale Joint Scheduling Method Considering the Grid of Renewable Energy

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhijun, E.; Wang, Weichen; Cao, Jin; Wang, Xin; Kong, Xiangyu; Quan, Shuping

    2018-01-01

    Renewable new energy power generation prediction error like wind and light, brings difficulties to dispatch the power system. In this paper, a multi-time scale robust scheduling method is set to solve this problem. It reduces the impact of clean energy prediction bias to the power grid by using multi-time scale (day-ahead, intraday, real time) and coordinating the dispatching power output of various power supplies such as hydropower, thermal power, wind power, gas power and. The method adopts the robust scheduling method to ensure the robustness of the scheduling scheme. By calculating the cost of the abandon wind and the load, it transforms the robustness into the risk cost and optimizes the optimal uncertainty set for the smallest integrative costs. The validity of the method is verified by simulation.

  13. Data warehousing technologies for large-scale and right-time data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiufeng, Liu

    heterogeneous sources into a central data warehouse (DW) by Extract-Transform-Load (ETL) at regular time intervals, e.g., monthly, weekly, or daily. But now, it becomes challenging for large-scale data, and hard to meet the near real-time/right-time business decisions. This thesis considers some...... modifications on-the-fly when the data is materialized or queried. The data is made available in the DW exactly when needed and users can get bulk-load speeds, but INSERT-like data availability. Third, this thesis presents the first dimensional ETL programming framework using MapReduce. Parallel ETL is needed...... for large-scale data, but it is not easy to implement. This presented framework makes this very easy by using the high-level ETL-specific constructs, including those for star schema, snowflake schema, slowly changing dimensions (SCDs) and very large dimensions. The framework can achieve high programming...

  14. Singular perturbations and time scales in the design of digital flight control systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, Desineni S.; Price, Douglas B.

    1988-01-01

    The results are presented of application of the methodology of Singular Perturbations and Time Scales (SPATS) to the control of digital flight systems. A block diagonalization method is described to decouple a full order, two time (slow and fast) scale, discrete control system into reduced order slow and fast subsystems. Basic properties and numerical aspects of the method are discussed. A composite, closed-loop, suboptimal control system is constructed as the sum of the slow and fast optimal feedback controls. The application of this technique to an aircraft model shows close agreement between the exact solutions and the decoupled (or composite) solutions. The main advantage of the method is the considerable reduction in the overall computational requirements for the evaluation of optimal guidance and control laws. The significance of the results is that it can be used for real time, onboard simulation. A brief survey is also presented of digital flight systems.

  15. Advancing atmospheric river forecasts into subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baggett, Cory F.; Barnes, Elizabeth A.; Maloney, Eric D.; Mundhenk, Bryan D.

    2017-07-01

    Atmospheric rivers are elongated plumes of intense moisture transport that are capable of producing extreme and impactful weather. Along the West Coast of North America, they occasionally cause considerable mayhem—delivering flooding rains during periods of heightened activity and desiccating droughts during periods of reduced activity. The intrinsic chaos of the atmosphere makes the prediction of atmospheric rivers at subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales (3 to 5 weeks) an inherently difficult task. We demonstrate here that the potential exists to advance forecast lead times of atmospheric rivers into subseasonal-to-seasonal time scales through knowledge of two of the atmosphere's most prominent oscillations, the Madden-Julian oscillation (MJO) and the quasi-biennial oscillation (QBO). Strong MJO and QBO activity modulates the frequency at which atmospheric rivers strike—offering an opportunity to improve subseasonal-to-seasonal forecast models and thereby skillfully predict atmospheric river activity up to 5 weeks in advance.

  16. Synchronizaton and causality across time-scales of observed and modelled ENSO dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jajcay, Nikola; Kravtsov, Sergey; Tsonis, Anastasios A.; Paluš, Milan

    2016-04-01

    Phase-phase and phase-amplitude interactions between dynamics on different temporal scales has been observed in ENSO dynamics, captured by the NINO3.4 index, using the approach for identification of cross-scale interactions introduced recently by Paluš [1]. The most pronounced interactions across scales are phase coherence and phase-phase causality in which the annual cycle influences the dynamics on the quasibiennial scale. The phase of slower phenomena on the scale 4-6 years influences not only the combination frequencies around the period one year, but also the phase of the annual cycle and also the amplitude of the oscillations in the quasibiennial range. In order to understand these nonlinear phenomena we investigate cross-scale interactions in synthetic, modelled NINO3.4 time series. The models taken into account were a selection of 96 historic runs from CMIP5 project, and two low-dimensional models - parametric recharge oscillator (PRO) [2], which is a two-dimensional dynamical model and a data-driven model based on the idea of linear inverse models [3]. The latter is a statistical model, in our setting 25-dimensional. While the two dimensions of the PRO model are not enough to capture all the cross-scale interactions, the results from the data-driven model are more promising and they resemble the interactions found in NINO3.4 measured data set. We believe that combination of models of different complexity will help to uncover mechanisms of the cross-scale interactions which might be the key for better understanding of the irregularities in the ENSO dynamics. This study is supported by the Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic within the Program KONTAKT II, Project No. LH14001. [1] M. Palus, Phys. Rev. Let. 112 078702 (2014) [2] K. Stein et al., J. Climate, 27, 14 (2014) [3] Kondrashov et al., J. Climate, 18, 21 (2005)

  17. Multi-scale approach for simulating time-delay biochemical reaction systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niu, Yuanling; Burrage, Kevin; Zhang, Chengjian

    2015-02-01

    This study presents a multi-scale approach for simulating time-delay biochemical reaction systems when there are wide ranges of molecular numbers. The authors construct a new efficient approach based on partitioning into slow and fast subsets in conjunction with predictor-corrector methods. This multi-scale approach is shown to be much more efficient than existing methods such as the delay stochastic simulation algorithm and the modified next reaction method. Numerical testing on several important problems in systems biology confirms the accuracy and computational efficiency of this approach.

  18. Consequences of cold-ischemia time on primary nonfunction and patient and graft survival in liver transplantation: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Stahl

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to preserve organs prior to transplant is essential to the organ allocation process.The purpose of this study is to describe the functional relationship between cold-ischemia time (CIT and primary nonfunction (PNF, patient and graft survival in liver transplant.To identify relevant articles Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane database, including the non-English literature identified in these databases, was searched from 1966 to April 2008. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted the data. CIT was analyzed both as a continuous variable and stratified by clinically relevant intervals. Nondichotomous variables were weighted by sample size. Percent variables were weighted by the inverse of the binomial variance.Twenty-six studies met criteria. Functionally, PNF% = -6.678281+0.9134701*CIT Mean+0.1250879*(CIT Mean-9.895352-0.0067663*(CIT Mean-9.895353, r2 = .625, , p<.0001. Mean patient survival: 93% (1 month, 88% (3 months, 83% (6 months and 83% (12 months. Mean graft survival: 85.9% (1 month, 80.5% (3 months, 78.1% (6 months and 76.8% (12 months. Maximum patient and graft survival occurred with CITs between 7.5-12.5 hrs at each survival interval. PNF was also significantly correlated with ICU time, % first time grafts and % immunologic mismatches.The results of this work imply that CIT may be the most important pre-transplant information needed in the decision to accept an organ.

  19. Effect of time interval between capecitabine intake and radiotherapy on local recurrence-free survival in preoperative chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yeon Joo; Kim, Jong Hoon; Yu, Chang Sik; Kim, Tae Won; Jang, Se Jin; Choi, Eun Kyung; Kim, Jin Cheon [Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Won Sik [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Gangneung (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    The concentration of capecitabine peaks at 1–2 hours after administration. We therefore assumed that proper timing of capecitabine administration and radiotherapy would maximize radiosensitization and influence survival among patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 223 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent preoperative chemoradiation, followed by surgery from January 2002 to May 2006. All patients underwent pelvic radiotherapy (50 Gy/25 fractions) and received capecitabine twice daily at 12-hour intervals (1,650 mg/m2/day). Patients were divided into two groups according to the time interval between capecitabine intake and radiotherapy. Patients who took capecitabine 1 hour before radiotherapy were classified as Group A (n = 109); all others were classified as Group B (n = 114). The median follow-up period was 72 months (range, 7 to 149 months). Although Group A had a significantly higher rate of good responses (44% vs. 25%; p = 0.005), the 5-year local recurrence-free survival rates of 93% in Group A and 97% in Group B did not differ significantly (p = 0.519). The 5-year disease-free survival and overall survival rates were also comparable between the groups. Despite the better pathological response in Group A, the time interval between capecitabine and radiotherapy administration did not have a significant effect on survivals. Further evaluations are needed to clarify the interaction of these treatment modalities.

  20. Scaling laws of diffusion and time intermittency generated by coherent structures in atmospheric turbulence

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P. Paradisi

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the time intermittency of turbulent transport associated with the birth-death of self-organized coherent structures in the atmospheric boundary layer. We apply a threshold analysis on the increments of turbulent fluctuations to extract sequences of rapid acceleration events, which is a marker of the transition between self-organized structures.

    The inter-event time distributions show a power-law decay ψ(τ ~ 1/τμ, with a strong dependence of the power-law index μ on the threshold.

    A recently developed method based on the application of event-driven walking rules to generate different diffusion processes is applied to the experimental event sequences. At variance with the power-law index μ estimated from the inter-event time distributions, the diffusion scaling H, defined by ⟨ X2⟩ ~ t2H, is independent from the threshold.

    From the analysis of the diffusion scaling it can also be inferred the presence of different kind of events, i.e. genuinely transition events and spurious events, which all contribute to the diffusion process but over different time scales. The great advantage of event-driven diffusion lies in the ability of separating different regimes of the scaling H. In fact, the greatest H, corresponding to the most anomalous diffusion process, emerges in the long time range, whereas the smallest H can be seen in the short time range if the time resolution of the data is sufficiently accurate.

    The estimated diffusion scaling is also robust under the change of the definition of turbulent fluctuations and, under the assumption of statistically independent events, it corresponds to a self-similar point process with a well-defined power-law index μD ~ 2.1, where D denotes that μD is derived from the diffusion scaling. We argue that

  1. Scaling laws of diffusion and time intermittency generated by coherent structures in atmospheric turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paradisi, P.; Cesari, R.; Donateo, A.; Contini, D.; Allegrini, P.

    2012-02-01

    We investigate the time intermittency of turbulent transport associated with the birth-death of self-organized coherent structures in the atmospheric boundary layer. We apply a threshold analysis on the increments of turbulent fluctuations to extract sequences of rapid acceleration events, which is a marker of the transition between self-organized structures. The inter-event time distributions show a power-law decay ψ(τ) ~ 1/τμ, with a strong dependence of the power-law index μ on the threshold. A recently developed method based on the application of event-driven walking rules to generate different diffusion processes is applied to the experimental event sequences. At variance with the power-law index μ estimated from the inter-event time distributions, the diffusion scaling H, defined by ⟨ X2⟩ ~ t2H, is independent from the threshold. From the analysis of the diffusion scaling it can also be inferred the presence of different kind of events, i.e. genuinely transition events and spurious events, which all contribute to the diffusion process but over different time scales. The great advantage of event-driven diffusion lies in the ability of separating different regimes of the scaling H. In fact, the greatest H, corresponding to the most anomalous diffusion process, emerges in the long time range, whereas the smallest H can be seen in the short time range if the time resolution of the data is sufficiently accurate. The estimated diffusion scaling is also robust under the change of the definition of turbulent fluctuations and, under the assumption of statistically independent events, it corresponds to a self-similar point process with a well-defined power-law index μD ~ 2.1, where D denotes that μD is derived from the diffusion scaling. We argue that this renewal point process can be associated to birth and death of coherent structures and to turbulent transport near the ground, where the contribution of turbulent coherent structures becomes dominant.

  2. Comparison between scaling law and nonparametric Bayesian estimate for the recurrence time of strong earthquakes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rotondi, R.

    2009-04-01

    According to the unified scaling theory the probability distribution function of the recurrence time T is a scaled version of a base function and the average value of T can be used as a scale parameter for the distribution. The base function must belong to the scale family of distributions: tested on different catalogues and for different scale levels, for Corral (2005) the (truncated) generalized gamma distribution is the best model, for German (2006) the Weibull distribution. The scaling approach should overcome the difficulty of estimating distribution functions over small areas but theorical limitations and partial instability of the estimated distributions have been pointed out in the literature. Our aim is to analyze the recurrence time of strong earthquakes that occurred in the Italian territory. To satisfy the hypotheses of independence and identical distribution we have evaluated the times between events that occurred in each area of the Database of Individual Seismogenic Sources and then we have gathered them by eight tectonically coherent regions, each of them dominated by a well characterized geodynamic process. To solve problems like: paucity of data, presence of outliers and uncertainty in the choice of the functional expression for the distribution of t, we have followed a nonparametric approach (Rotondi (2009)) in which: (a) the maximum flexibility is obtained by assuming that the probability distribution is a random function belonging to a large function space, distributed as a stochastic process; (b) nonparametric estimation method is robust when the data contain outliers; (c) Bayesian methodology allows to exploit different information sources so that the model fitting may be good also to scarce samples. We have compared the hazard rates evaluated through the parametric and nonparametric approach. References Corral A. (2005). Mixing of rescaled data and Bayesian inference for earthquake recurrence times, Nonlin. Proces. Geophys., 12, 89

  3. When to Spray: a Time-Scale Calculus Approach to Controlling the Impact of West Nile Virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Thomas

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available West Nile Virus (WNV made its initial appearance in the New York City (NYC metropolitan area in 1999 and was implicated in cases of human encephalitis and the extensive mortality in crows (Corvus sp. and other avian species. Mosquitoes were found to be the primary vectors and NYC's current policy on control strategies involved an eradication program that depends on the synchronicity of the summer mosquito population's increases with the occurrence of cases in humans. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this is the most effective control strategy because past mathematical models assumed discrete behavior that is modeled by difference equations for a single summer season was most important to the virus's life cycle. However, both surviving mosquito eggs and surviving migratory birds incubate the virus during the winter, leading to a continuation of infections in the following warmer spring and summer when the birds return and the eggs hatch. Additionally, the virulence of WNV has been observed to fluctuate with changes in temperature toward warmer conditions. Models are required that account for these multi-seasonal dynamics and time-scale calculus is a newly developed method for resolving the behavior of systems that exhibit both discrete and continuous behavior. We found that, although the static states of the new temperature delay model are no different from older models, simulations indicate that the rate of the infection is affected by avian recovery at a lower temperature threshold. Consequently, eradication strategies should consider that controlling mosquitoes during the fall when colder temperatures occur would cause a fast and efficient drop to a disease-free state. This could prove rather more effective than mosquito control in the warmer months.

  4. Modeling and Validating Time, Buffering, and Utilization of a Large-Scale, Real-Time Data Acquisition System

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, Alejandro; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Data acquisition systems for large-scale high-energy physics experiments have to handle hundreds of gigabytes per second of data, and are typically realized as specialized data centers that connect a very large number of front-end electronics devices to an event detection and storage system. The design of such systems is often based on many assumptions, small-scale experiments and a substantial amount of over-provisioning. In this work, we introduce a discrete event-based simulation tool that models the data flow of the current ATLAS data acquisition system, with the main goal to be accurate with regard to the main operational characteristics. We measure buffer occupancy counting the number of elements in buffers, resource utilization measuring output bandwidth and counting the number of active processing units, and their time evolution by comparing data over many consecutive and small periods of time. We perform studies on the error of simulation when comparing the results to a large amount of real-world ope...

  5. Modeling and Validating Time, Buffering, and Utilization of a Large-Scale, Real-Time Data Acquisition System

    CERN Document Server

    Santos, Alejandro; The ATLAS collaboration

    2017-01-01

    Data acquisition systems for large-scale high-energy physics experiments have to handle hundreds of gigabytes per second of data, and are typically implemented as specialized data centers that connect a very large number of front-end electronics devices to an event detection and storage system. The design of such systems is often based on many assumptions, small-scale experiments and a substantial amount of over-provisioning. In this paper, we introduce a discrete event-based simulation tool that models the dataflow of the current ATLAS data acquisition system, with the main goal to be accurate with regard to the main operational characteristics. We measure buffer occupancy counting the number of elements in buffers; resource utilization measuring output bandwidth and counting the number of active processing units, and their time evolution by comparing data over many consecutive and small periods of time. We perform studies on the error in simulation when comparing the results to a large amount of real-world ...

  6. Jointly modeling longitudinal proportional data and survival times with an application to the quality of life data in a breast cancer trial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Song, Hui; Peng, Yingwei; Tu, Dongsheng

    2017-04-01

    Motivated by the joint analysis of longitudinal quality of life data and recurrence free survival times from a cancer clinical trial, we present in this paper two approaches to jointly model the longitudinal proportional measurements, which are confined in a finite interval, and survival data. Both approaches assume a proportional hazards model for the survival times. For the longitudinal component, the first approach applies the classical linear mixed model to logit transformed responses, while the second approach directly models the responses using a simplex distribution. A semiparametric method based on a penalized joint likelihood generated by the Laplace approximation is derived to fit the joint model defined by the second approach. The proposed procedures are evaluated in a simulation study and applied to the analysis of breast cancer data motivated this research.

  7. Stratigraphy and Characteristic Time Scales of Northern Polar and Circumpolar Deposits on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kreslavsky, M. A.; Head, J. W.

    2002-05-01

    The north polar region is dominated by the polar cap cut by troughs and Chasma Boreale, surrounded by the north polar erg and overlying the Vastitas Borealis Formation. A thin layer of mantle with characteristic "basketball" texture typical for high latitudes covers the surface of Vastitas Borealis Formation. Study of the high-resolution MGS MOC images showed that the dunes migrate over this mantle. The stratigraphic relationships of this mantle and icy deposits, as well as Chasma Boreale-related deposits are more complex. Chasma Boreale has been interpreted to be initiated as an outflow event (Fishbaugh and Head, JGR, JE001351, 2002). We estimate that the time scale of the meltwater accumulation at the base of the polar cap and the time scale of establishing the thermal equilibrium in the cap are on the order of 0.5 Myr or greater. We compare this time scale with the characteristic astronomically predicted time scales: the time scale of obliquity oscillations (0.05 Myr), the period of obliquity oscillations about 25 deg (3.5 Myr), and the time scale of chaotic obliquity variations (5 Myr). During the period 3.5 - 5 Myr ago the obliquity oscillated around 35 deg, which led to noticeably higher polar cap temperatures and a shallower depth of the melting isotherm than during the present epoch. Predictions of obliquity in the earlier epochs beyond 5 Myr are impossible. We conclude that the period of intensive reshaping of the polar cap and formation of Chasma Boreale occurred 3.5 Myr ago or earlier. During the last 3.5 Myr the cap was rather similar to present; minor erosion and deposition of the upper layers could occur, along with modest trough migration in the short epochs of the highest obliquity. The accumulation of the main mass of the finely layered deposits occurred at least 0.5 - 1 Myr (and may be much earlier) than the Chasma Boreale flood. The accumulation could occur in response to some obliquity-driven climate variation or due to some endogenic discharge

  8. Modeling the Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Variability on Decadal and Centennial Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cahalan, Robert; Wen, Guoyong; Pilewskie, Peter; Harder, Jerald

    We apply two scenarios of external forcing, namely the SIM-based out-of-phase variations and the proxy-based in-phase variations, as input to a time-dependent radiative-convective model (RCM), and also to the GISS modelE GCM, to compute climate responses to solar variation on decadal time scale. We find that the maximum temperature response occurs in the upper stratosphere, while temperature response decreases downward to the surface for both scenarios, and both models. The upper stratospheric temperature peak-to-peak responses to out-of-phase solar forcing are 0.6 K in RCM and 0.9 K over the tropical region in GCM simulations, a factor of 5 times as large as responses to in-phase solar forcing. Stratospheric responses are in-phase with TSI (Total Solar Irradiance) variations. The modeled upper stratospheric temperature responses to the SORCE SIM observed SSI (Spectral Solar Irradiance) forcing are similar to the HALOE (Halogen Occultation Experiment) observed 11-year temperature variations. Surface responses to the two SSI scenarios are small for both RCM and GCM studies, as compared to the stratospheric responses. Though solar irradiance variations on centennial time scale are not well known, the two sce-narios of reconstructed TSI time series (i.e., the one based on 11-year cycle with background [Lean 2000] and the other one from flux transport that has much less background component [Wang, Lean, and Sheeley, 2005]) provide potential range of variations of TSI on centennial time scale. We apply phase relations among different spectral irradiance bands both from SIM observation and proxy reconstructions to the two scenarios of historical TSI to derive the as-sociated historical SSI. The historical SSI is used to drive the RCM. The updated atmosphere and ocean mixed coupled RCM including diffusion to deep-ocean will provide the first order estimate of temperature response to SSI variation on centennial time scales. We anticipate the stratosphere, troposphere, and

  9. Alcohol use at time of injury and survival following traumatic brain injury: results from the National Trauma Data Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Chiung M; Yi, Hsiao-Ye; Yoon, Young-Hee; Dong, Chuanhui

    2012-07-01

    Premised on biological evidence from animal research, recent clinical studies have, for the most part, concluded that elevated blood alcohol concentration levels are independently associated with higher survival or decreased mortality in patients with moderate to severe traumatic brain injury (TBI). This study aims to provide some counterevidence to this claim and to further future investigations. Incident data were drawn from the largest U.S. trauma registry, the National Trauma Data Bank, for emergency department admission years 2002-2006. TBI was identified according to the National Trauma Data Bank's definition using International Classification of Diseases, Ninth Revision, Clinical Modification (ICD-9-CM), codes. To eliminate confounding, the exact matching method was used to match alcohol-positive with alcohol-negative incidents on sex, age, race/ethnicity, and facility. Logistic regression compared in-hospital mortality between 44,043 alcohol-positive and 59,817 matched alcohol-negative TBI incidents, with and without causes and intents of TBI and Injury Severity Score as covariates. A sensitivity analysis was performed within a subsample of isolated moderate to severe TBI incidents. Alcohol use at the time of injury was found to be significantly associated with an increased risk for TBI. Including varied causes and intents of TBI and Injury Severity Score as potential confounders in the regression model explained away the statistical significance of the seemingly protective effect of alcohol against TBI mortality for all TBIs and for isolated moderate to severe TBIs. The null finding shows that the purported reduction in TBI mortality attributed to positive blood alcohol likely is attributable to residual confounding. Accordingly, the risk of TBI associated with alcohol use should not be overlooked.

  10. Modeling and simulation of nuclear fuel in scenarios with long time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espinosa, Carlos E.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J., E-mail: eduardo.espinosa@ufrgs.br, E-mail: bardo.bodmann@ufrgs.br [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (DENUC/PROMEC/UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear. Programa de Pos Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear reactors play a key role in defining the energy matrix. A study by the Fraunhofer Society shows in different time scales for long periods of time the distribution of energy sources. Regardless of scale, the use of nuclear energy is practically constant. In these scenarios, the nuclear fuel behavior over time is of interest. For kinetics of long-term scales, changing the chemical composition of fuel is significant. Thus, it is appropriate to consider fission products called neutron poisons. Such products are of interest in the nuclear reactor, since they become parasitic neutron absorbers and result in long thermal heat sources. The objective of this work is to solve the kinetics system coupled to neutron poison products. To solve this system, we use similar ideas to the method of Adomian decomposition. Initially, one separates the system of equations as the sum of a linear part and a non-linear part in order to solve a recursive system. The nonlinearity is treated as Adomian polynomial. We present numerical results of the effects of changing the power of a reactor, scenarios such as start-up and shut-down. For these results we consider time dependent reactivity, such as linear reactivity, quadratic polynomial and oscillatory. With these results one can simulate the chemical composition of the fuel due to the reuse of the spent fuel in subsequent cycles. (author)

  11. Equilibrium distributions of simple biochemical reaction systems for time-scale separation in stochastic reaction networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mélykúti, Bence; Hespanha, João P; Khammash, Mustafa

    2014-08-06

    Many biochemical reaction networks are inherently multiscale in time and in the counts of participating molecular species. A standard technique to treat different time scales in the stochastic kinetics framework is averaging or quasi-steady-state analysis: it is assumed that the fast dynamics reaches its equilibrium (stationary) distribution on a time scale where the slowly varying molecular counts are unlikely to have changed. We derive analytic equilibrium distributions for various simple biochemical systems, such as enzymatic reactions and gene regulation models. These can be directly inserted into simulations of the slow time-scale dynamics. They also provide insight into the stimulus-response of these systems. An important model for which we derive the analytic equilibrium distribution is the binding of dimer transcription factors (TFs) that first have to form from monomers. This gene regulation mechanism is compared to the cases of the binding of simple monomer TFs to one gene or to multiple copies of a gene, and to the cases of the cooperative binding of two or multiple TFs to a gene. The results apply equally to ligands binding to enzyme molecules.

  12. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  13. The effects of ambient temperature and mixing time of glass ionomer cement material on the survival rate of proximal ART restorations in primary molars

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arthur M Kemoli

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Temperature fluctuations and material mixing times are likely to affect the consistency and integrity of the material mixture, and hence the restoration made out of it. The purpose of the present study was to determine the influence of the ambient temperature and the mixing time of glass ionomer cement (GIC restorative material on the survival rate of proximal atraumatic restorative treatment (ART restorations placed in primary molars. Materials and Methods: A total of 804 restorations were placed in the primary molars of 6-8-year-olds using the ART approach. The restorations were then followed for a period of 2 years and evaluated at given intervals. The data collected were analyzed using SPSS computer statistical program, and the results tested and compared using the Chi-square, Kaplan Meier survival analysis and Cox Proportional hazard statistical tests. Results: The cumulative survival rate of the restorations dropped from the initial 94.4% to 30.8% at the end of 2 years. The higher survival rate of the restorations was associated with the experienced operators and assistants when using the rubber dam isolation method. However, there was no statistically significant difference in the survival rate of the restorations when related to the room temperature and the mixing time of the GIC materials used in spite of the variations in the temperature recoded and the methods used in mixing the materials. Conclusion: The ambient temperature and mixing time of GIC did not have a significant effect on the survival of the proximal ART restorations.

  14. Survival of timber rattlesnakes (Crotalus horridus) estimated by capture-recapture models in relation to age, sex, color morph, time, and birthplace

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brown, W.S.; Kery, M.; Hines, J.E.

    2007-01-01

    Juvenile survival is one of the least known elements of the life history of many species, in particular snakes. We conducted a mark–recapture study of Crotalus horridus from 1978–2002 in northeastern New York near the northern limits of the species' range. We marked 588 neonates and estimated annual age-, sex-, and morph-specific recapture and survival rates using the Cormack-Jolly-Seber (CJS) model. Wild-caught neonates (field-born, n  =  407) and neonates produced by captive-held gravid females (lab-born, n  =  181) allowed comparison of the birthplace, or lab treatment effect, in estimated survival. Recapture rates declined from about 10–20% over time while increasing from young to older age classes. Estimated survival rates (S ± 1 SE) in the first year were significantly higher among field-born (black morph: S  =  0.773 ± 0.203; yellow morph: S  =  0.531 ± 0.104) than among lab-born snakes (black morph: S  =  0.411 ± 0.131; yellow morph: S  =  0.301 ± 0.081). Lower birth weights combined with a lack of field exposure until release apparently contributed to the lower survival rate of lab-born snakes. Subsequent survival estimates for 2–4-yr-old snakes were S  =  0.845 ± 0.084 for the black morph and S  =  0.999 (SE not available) for the yellow morph, and for ≥5-yr-old snakes S  =  0.958 ± 0.039 (black morph) and S  =  0.822 ± 0.034 (yellow morph). The most parsimonious model overall contained an independent time trend for survival of each age, morph, and lab-treatment group. For snakes of the first two age groups (ages 1 yr and 2–4 yr), survival tended to decline over the years for both morphs, while for adult snakes (5 yr and older), survival was constant or even slightly increased. Our data on survival and recapture are among the first rigorous estimates of these parameters in a rattlesnake and among the few yet available for any viperid snake. These data are useful for analyses of the life

  15. Time-Sliced Perturbation Theory for Large Scale Structure I: General Formalism

    CERN Document Server

    Blas, Diego; Ivanov, Mikhail M.; Sibiryakov, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    We present a new analytic approach to describe large scale structure formation in the mildly non-linear regime. The central object of the method is the time-dependent probability distribution function generating correlators of the cosmological observables at a given moment of time. Expanding the distribution function around the Gaussian weight we formulate a perturbative technique to calculate non-linear corrections to cosmological correlators, similar to the diagrammatic expansion in a three-dimensional Euclidean quantum field theory, with time playing the role of an external parameter. For the physically relevant case of cold dark matter in an Einstein--de Sitter universe, the time evolution of the distribution function can be found exactly and is encapsulated by a time-dependent coupling constant controlling the perturbative expansion. We show that all building blocks of the expansion are free from spurious infrared enhanced contributions that plague the standard cosmological perturbation theory. This pave...

  16. Fiber Optic Sensor for Real-Time Sensing of Silica Scale Formation in Geothermal Water.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Okazaki, Takuya; Orii, Tatsuya; Ueda, Akira; Ozawa, Akiko; Kuramitz, Hideki

    2017-06-13

    We present a novel fiber optic sensor for real-time sensing of silica scale formation in geothermal water. The sensor is fabricated by removing the cladding of a multimode fiber to expose the core to detect the scale-formation-induced refractive index change. A simple experimental setup was constructed to measure the transmittance response using white light as a source and a spectroscopy detector. A field test was performed on geothermal water containing 980 mg/L dissolved silica at 93 °C in Sumikawa Geothermal Power Plant, Japan. The transmittance response of the fiber sensor decreased due to the formation of silica scale on the fiber core from geothermal water. An application of this sensor in the evaluation of scale inhibitors was demonstrated. In geothermal water containing a pH modifier, the change of transmittance response decreased with pH decrease. The effectiveness of a polyelectrolyte inhibitor in prevention of silica scale formation was easily detectable using the fiber sensor in geothermal water.

  17. REAL-TIME VIDEO SCALING BASED ON CONVOLUTION NEURAL NETWORK ARCHITECTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Safinaz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, video super resolution techniques becomes mandatory requirements to get high resolution videos. Many super resolution techniques researched but still video super resolution or scaling is a vital challenge. In this paper, we have presented a real-time video scaling based on convolution neural network architecture to eliminate the blurriness in the images and video frames and to provide better reconstruction quality while scaling of large datasets from lower resolution frames to high resolution frames. We compare our outcomes with multiple exiting algorithms. Our extensive results of proposed technique RemCNN (Reconstruction error minimization Convolution Neural Network shows that our model outperforms the existing technologies such as bicubic, bilinear, MCResNet and provide better reconstructed motioning images and video frames. The experimental results shows that our average PSNR result is 47.80474 considering upscale-2, 41.70209 for upscale-3 and 36.24503 for upscale-4 for Myanmar dataset which is very high in contrast to other existing techniques. This results proves our proposed model real-time video scaling based on convolution neural network architecture’s high efficiency and better performance.

  18. Relative importance of time, land use and lithology on determining aquifer-scale denitrification

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kolbe, Tamara; de Dreuzy, Jean-Raynald; Abbott, Benjamin W.; Marçais, Jean; Babey, Tristan; Thomas, Zahra; Peiffer, Stefan; Aquilina, Luc; Labasque, Thierry; Laverman, Anniet; Fleckenstein, Jan; Boulvais, Philippe; Pinay, Gilles

    2017-04-01

    Unconfined shallow aquifers are commonly contaminated by nitrate in agricultural regions, because of excess fertilizer application over the last decades. Watershed studies have indicated that 1) changes in agricultural practices have caused changes in nitrate input over time, 2) denitrification occurs in localized hotspots within the aquifer, and 3) heterogeneous groundwater flow circulation has led to strong nitrate gradients in aquifers that are not yet well understood. In this study we investigated the respective influence of land use, groundwater transit time distribution, and hotspot distribution on groundwater denitrification with a particular interest on how a detailed understanding of transit time distributions could be used to upscale the point denitrification measurements to the aquifer-scale. We measured CFC-based groundwater age, oxygen, nitrate, and dinitrogen gas excess in 16 agricultural wells of an unconfined crystalline aquifer in Brittany, France. Groundwater age data was used to calibrate a mechanistic groundwater flow model of the study site. Historical nitrate inputs were reconstructed by using measured nitrate concentrations, dinitrogen gas excess and transit time distributions of the wells. Field data showed large differences in denitrification activity among wells, strongly associated with differences in transit time distribution. This suggests that knowing groundwater flow dynamics and consequent transit time distributions at the catchment-scale could be used to estimate the overall denitrification capacity of agricultural aquifers.

  19. Consistent allometric scaling of stomatal sizes and densities across taxonomic ranks and geologic time

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Boer, H. J.; Price, C. A.; Wagner-Cremer, F.; Dekker, S. C.; Veneklaas, E. J.

    2013-12-01

    Stomatal pores on plants leaves are an important link in the chain of processes that determine biosphere fluxes of water and carbon. Stomatal density (i.e. the number of stomata per area) and the size of the stomatal pore at maximum aperture are particularly relevant traits in this context because they determine the theoretical maximum diffusive stomatal conductance (gsmax) and thereby set an upper limit for leaf gas exchange. Observations on (sub)fossil leaves revealed that changes in stomatal densities are anti-correlated with changes in stomatal sizes at developmental and evolutionary timescales. Moreover, this anti-correlation appears consistently within single species, across multiple species in the extant plant community and at evolutionary time scales. The consistency of the relation between stomatal densities and sizes suggests that common mechanisms constrain the adaptation of these traits across the plant community. In an attempt to identify such potential generic constraints, we investigated the allometry between stomatal densities and sizes in the extant plant community and across geological time. As the size of the stomatal pore at maximum aperture is typically derived from the length of the stomatal pore, we considered the allometric scaling of pore length (lp) with stomatal density (Ds) as the power law: lp = k . Dsa in which k is a normalization constant and the exponent a is the slope of the scaling relation. Our null-hypothesis predicts that stomatal density and pore length scale along a constant slope of -1/2 based on a scale-invariant relation between pore length and the distance between neighboring pores. Our alternative hypothesis predicts a constant slope of -1 based on the idea that stomatal density and pore length scale along an invariant gsmax. To explore these scaling hypotheses in the extant plant community we compiled a dataset of combined observations of stomatal density and pore length on 111 species from published literature and new

  20. Weakest-Link Scaling and Finite Size Effects on Recurrence Times Distribution

    CERN Document Server

    Hristopulos, Dionissios T; Kaniadakis, Giorgio

    2013-01-01

    Tectonic earthquakes result from the fracturing of the Earth's crust due to the loading induced by the motion of the tectonic plates. Hence, the statistical laws of earthquakes must be intimately connected to the statistical laws of fracture. The Weibull distribution is a commonly used model of earthquake recurrence times (ERT). Nevertheless, deviations from Weibull scaling have been observed in ERT data and in fracture experiments on quasi-brittle materials. We propose that the weakest-link-scaling theory for finite-size systems leads to the kappa-Weibull function, which implies a power-law tail for the ERT distribution. We show that the ERT hazard rate function decreases linearly after a waiting time which is proportional to the system size (in terms of representative volume elements) raised to the inverse of the Weibull modulus. We also demonstrate that the kappa-Weibull can be applied to strongly correlated systems by means of simulations of a fiber bundle model.

  1. Virtual water trade and time scales for loss of water sustainability: a comparative regional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Prashant; Nishad, Shiv Narayan

    2015-03-20

    Assessment and policy design for sustainability in primary resources like arable land and water need to adopt long-term perspective; even small but persistent effects like net export of water may influence sustainability through irreversible losses. With growing consumption, this virtual water trade has become an important element in the water sustainability of a nation. We estimate and contrast the virtual (embedded) water trades of two populous nations, India and China, to present certain quantitative measures and time scales. Estimates show that export of embedded water alone can lead to loss of water sustainability. With the current rate of net export of water (embedded) in the end products, India is poised to lose its entire available water in less than 1000 years; much shorter time scales are implied in terms of water for production. The two cases contrast and exemplify sustainable and non-sustainable virtual water trade in long term perspective.

  2. Fission time-scale in experiments and in multiple initiation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karamian, S. A., E-mail: karamian@nrmail.jinr.ru [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Russian Federation)

    2011-12-15

    Rate of fission for highly-excited nuclei is affected by the viscose character of the systemmotion in deformation coordinates as was reported for very heavy nuclei with Z{sub C} > 90. The long time-scale of fission can be described in a model of 'fission by diffusion' that includes an assumption of the overdamped diabatic motion. The fission-to-spallation ratio at intermediate proton energy could be influenced by the viscosity, as well. Within a novel approach of the present work, the cross examination of the fission probability, time-scales, and pre-fission neutron multiplicities is resulted in the consistent interpretation of a whole set of the observables. Earlier, different aspects could be reproduced in partial simulations without careful coordination.

  3. Modeling heat dominated electric breakdown in air, with adaptivity to electron or ion time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Agnihotri, A.; Hundsdorfer, W.; Ebert, U.

    2017-09-01

    We model heat dominated electrical breakdown in air in a short planar gap. We couple the discharge dynamics in fluid approximation with the hydrodynamic motion of the air heated by the discharge. To be computationally efficient, we derive a reduced model on the ion time scale, and we switch between the full model on the electron time scale and the reduced model. We observe an ion pulse reaching the cathode, releasing electrons by secondary emission, and these electrons create another ion pulse. These cycles of ion pulses might lead to electrical breakdown. This breakdown is driven by Ohmic heating, thermal shocks and induced pressure waves, rather than by the streamer mechanism of local field enhancement at the streamer tip.

  4. Oscillation of second-order forced nonlinear dynamic equations on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir Saker

    2005-11-01

    on a time scale ${\\mathbb{T}}$ when $a(t>0$. We establish some sufficient conditions which ensure that every solution oscillates or satisfies $\\lim \\inf_{t\\rightarrow \\infty }\\left\\vert x(t\\right\\vert =0.$ Our oscillation results when $r(t=0$ improve the oscillation results for dynamic equations on time scales that has been established by Erbe and Peterson [Proc. Amer. Math. Soc \\ 132 (2004, 735-744], Bohner, Erbe and Peterson [J. Math. Anal. Appl. 301 (2005, 491--507] since our results do not require $\\int_{t_{0}}^{\\infty }q(t\\Delta t>0$ and $\\int_{\\pm t_{0}}^{\\pm \\infty } \\frac{du}{f(u}<\\infty .$ Also, as a special case when ${\\mathbb{T=R}}$, and $r(t=0$ our results improve some oscillation results for differential equations. Some examples are given to illustrate the main results.

  5. Unification of Small and Large Time Scales for Biological Evolution: Deviations from Power Law

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chowdhury, Debashish; Stauffer, Dietrich; Kunwar, Ambarish

    2003-02-01

    We develop a unified model that describes both “micro” and “macro” evolutions within a single theoretical framework. The ecosystem is described as a dynamic network; the population dynamics at each node of this network describes the “microevolution” over ecological time scales (i.e., birth, ageing, and natural death of individual organisms), while the appearance of new nodes, the slow changes of the links, and the disappearance of existing nodes accounts for the “macroevolution” over geological time scales (i.e., the origination, evolution, and extinction of species). In contrast to several earlier claims in the literature, we observe strong deviations from power law in the regime of long lifetimes.

  6. Potential factors affecting survival differ by run-timing and location: linear mixed-effects models of Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp. in the Klamath River, California.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca M Quiñones

    Full Text Available Understanding factors influencing survival of Pacific salmonids (Oncorhynchus spp. is essential to species conservation, because drivers of mortality can vary over multiple spatial and temporal scales. Although recent studies have evaluated the effects of climate, habitat quality, or resource management (e.g., hatchery operations on salmonid recruitment and survival, a failure to look at multiple factors simultaneously leaves open questions about the relative importance of different factors. We analyzed the relationship between ten factors and survival (1980-2007 of four populations of salmonids with distinct life histories from two adjacent watersheds (Salmon and Scott rivers in the Klamath River basin, California. The factors were ocean abundance, ocean harvest, hatchery releases, hatchery returns, Pacific Decadal Oscillation, North Pacific Gyre Oscillation, El Niño Southern Oscillation, snow depth, flow, and watershed disturbance. Permutation tests and linear mixed-effects models tested effects of factors on survival of each taxon. Potential factors affecting survival differed among taxa and between locations. Fall Chinook salmon O. tshawytscha survival trends appeared to be driven partially or entirely by hatchery practices. Trends in three taxa (Salmon River spring Chinook salmon, Scott River fall Chinook salmon; Salmon River summer steelhead trout O. mykiss were also likely driven by factors subject to climatic forcing (ocean abundance, summer flow. Our findings underscore the importance of multiple factors in simultaneously driving population trends in widespread species such as anadromous salmonids. They also show that the suite of factors may differ among different taxa in the same location as well as among populations of the same taxa in different watersheds. In the Klamath basin, hatchery practices need to be reevaluated to protect wild salmonids.

  7. Numerical methods for large-scale, time-dependent partial differential equations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turkel, E.

    1979-01-01

    A survey of numerical methods for time dependent partial differential equations is presented. The emphasis is on practical applications to large scale problems. A discussion of new developments in high order methods and moving grids is given. The importance of boundary conditions is stressed for both internal and external flows. A description of implicit methods is presented including generalizations to multidimensions. Shocks, aerodynamics, meteorology, plasma physics and combustion applications are also briefly described.

  8. Interval Oscillation Criteria for Second-Order Forced Functional Dynamic Equations on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shao-Yan Zhang

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with oscillation of second-order forced functional dynamic equations of the form (r(t(xΔ(tγΔ+∑i=0n‍qi(t|x(δi(t|αisgn  x(δi(t=e(t on time scales. By using a generalized Riccati technique and integral averaging techniques, we establish new oscillation criteria which handle some cases not covered by known criteria.

  9. A real-time social media aggregation tool: Reflections from five large-scale events

    OpenAIRE

    Rogstadius, Jakob; Kostakos, Vassilis; Laredo, Jim; Vukovic, Maja

    2011-01-01

    Social media is gaining interest among emergency response professionals and researchers as a source of real-time information about ongoing events. In this paper we summarize conclusions drawn while using a software prototype that collects, clusters and visualizes status updates from the social microblogging service Twitter in relation to five large-scale events during the spring of 2011. We identify different uses for gathered information and discuss metrics for prioritization of information ...

  10. A multiple-time-scale turbulence model based on variable partitioning of turbulent kinetic energy spectrum

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, S.-W.; Chen, C.-P.

    1988-01-01

    The paper presents a multiple-time-scale turbulence model of a single point closure and a simplified split-spectrum method. Consideration is given to a class of turbulent boundary layer flows and of separated and/or swirling elliptic turbulent flows. For the separated and/or swirling turbulent flows, the present turbulence model yielded significantly improved computational results over those obtained with the standard k-epsilon turbulence model.

  11. Oscillation Theorems for Second-Order Half-Linear Advanced Dynamic Equations on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shuhong Tang

    2011-01-01

    (((Δ(Δ+(((=0 on an arbitrary time scale with sup =∞, where (≥ and ∫∞(Δ/(1/(<∞. Some sufficient conditions for oscillation of the studied equation are established. Our results not only improve and complement those results in the literature but also unify the oscillation of the second-order half-linear advanced differential equation and the second-order half-linear advanced difference equation. Three examples are included to illustrate the main results.

  12. Radial migration of preplanetary material - Implications for the accretion time scale problem

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hourigan, K.; Ward, W. R.

    1984-01-01

    Radial drift of planetesimals due to density wave interaction with the solar nebula is considered. The mechanism is most effective for large masses and provides mobility over a size range where aerodynamic drag is unimportant. The process could shorten accretion time scales to O(100,000-1,000,000 years) throughout the solar system. Accumulation stalls down when growing objects are massive enough to open gaps in the gas disk. Implications of this process for current cosmogonic models are discussed.

  13. A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S; Hardisty, David J; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S; Runge, Michael C; Cottingham, Kathryn L; Urban, Dean L; Maguire, Lynn A; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J; Peters, Debra P C

    2016-02-01

    Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers' actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed. © 2015

  14. Terminal value problems for first and second order nonlinear equations on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher C. Tisdell

    2008-05-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we examine "terminal" value problems for dynamic equations on time scales - that is, a dynamic equation whose solutions are asymptotic at infinity. We present a number of new theorems that guarantee the existence and uniqueness of solutions, as well as some comparison-type results. The methods we employ feature dynamic inequalities, weighted norms, and fixed-point theory.

  15. Time scales of foam stability in shallow conduits: Insights from analogue experiments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spina, L.; Scheu, B.; Cimarelli, C.; Arciniega-Ceballos, A.; Dingwell, D. B.

    2016-10-01

    Volcanic systems can exhibit periodical trends in degassing activity, characterized by a wide range of time scales. Understanding the dynamics that control such periodic behavior can provide a picture of the processes occurring in the feeding system. Toward this end, we analyzed the periodicity of outgassing in a series of decompression experiments performed on analogue material (argon-saturated silicone oil plus glass beads/fibers) scaled to serve as models of basaltic magma. To define the effects of liquid viscosity and crystal content on the time scale of outgassing, we investigated both: (1) pure liquid systems, at differing viscosities (100 and 1000 Pa s), and (2) particle-bearing suspensions (diluted and semidiluted). The results indicate that under dynamic conditions (e.g., decompressive bubble growth and fluid ascent within the conduit), the periodicity of foam disruption may be up to several orders of magnitude less than estimates based on the analysis of static conditions. This difference in foam disruption time scale is inferred to result from the contribution of bubble shear and bubble growth to inter-bubble film thinning. The presence of particles in the semidiluted regime is further linked to shorter bubble bursting times, likely resulting from contributions of the presence of a solid network and coalescence processes to the relative increase in bubble breakup rates. Finally, it is argued that these experiments represent a good analogue of gas-piston activity (i.e., the periodical rise-and-fall of a basaltic lava lake surface), implying a dominant role for shallow foam accumulation as a source process for these phenomena.

  16. A typology of time-scale mismatches and behavioral interventions to diagnose and solve conservation problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wilson, Robyn S.; Hardisty, David J.; Epanchin-Niell, Rebecca S.; Runge, Michael C.; Cottingham, Kathryn L.; Urban, Dean L.; Maguire, Lynn A.; Hastings, Alan; Mumby, Peter J.; Peters, Debra P.C.

    2016-01-01

    Ecological systems often operate on time scales significantly longer or shorter than the time scales typical of human decision making, which causes substantial difficulty for conservation and management in socioecological systems. For example, invasive species may move faster than humans can diagnose problems and initiate solutions, and climate systems may exhibit long-term inertia and short-term fluctuations that obscure learning about the efficacy of management efforts in many ecological systems. We adopted a management-decision framework that distinguishes decision makers within public institutions from individual actors within the social system, calls attention to the ways socioecological systems respond to decision makers’ actions, and notes institutional learning that accrues from observing these responses. We used this framework, along with insights from bedeviling conservation problems, to create a typology that identifies problematic time-scale mismatches occurring between individual decision makers in public institutions and between individual actors in the social or ecological system. We also considered solutions that involve modifying human perception and behavior at the individual level as a means of resolving these problematic mismatches. The potential solutions are derived from the behavioral economics and psychology literature on temporal challenges in decision making, such as the human tendency to discount future outcomes at irrationally high rates. These solutions range from framing environmental decisions to enhance the salience of long-term consequences, to using structured decision processes that make time scales of actions and consequences more explicit, to structural solutions aimed at altering the consequences of short-sighted behavior to make it less appealing. Additional application of these tools and long-term evaluation measures that assess not just behavioral changes but also associated changes in ecological systems are needed.

  17. The association between timing of initiation of adjuvant therapy and the survival of early stage ovarian cancer patients - An analysis of NRG Oncology/Gynecologic Oncology Group trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chan, John K; Java, James J; Fuh, Katherine; Monk, Bradley J; Kapp, Daniel S; Herzog, Thomas; Bell, Jeffrey; Young, Robert

    2016-12-01

    To determine the association between timing of adjuvant therapy initiation and survival of early stage ovarian cancer patients. Data were obtained from women who underwent primary surgical staging followed by adjuvant therapy from two Gynecologic Oncology Group trials (protocols # 95 and 157). Kaplan-Meier estimates and Cox proportional hazards model adjusted for covariates were used for analyses. Of 497 stage I-II epithelial ovarian cancer patients, the median time between surgery and initiation of adjuvant therapy was 23days (25th-75th%: 12-33days). The time interval from surgery to initiation of adjuvant therapy was categorized into three groups: 4weeks. The corresponding 5-year recurrence-free survival rates were 72.8%, 73.9%, and 79.5% (p=0.62). The 5-year overall survival rates were 79.4%, 81.9%, and 82.8%, respectively (p=0.51; p=0.33 - global test). As compared to 4weeks. Age, stage, grade, and cytology were important prognostic factors. Timing of adjuvant therapy initiation was not associated with survival in early stage epithelial ovarian cancer patients. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  18. Blockade of CD40-CD154 at the time of donor-specific blood transfusion does not lead to prolonged kidney allograft survival in nonhuman primates

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ringers, J; Haanstra, KG; Kroczek, RA; Kliem, K; Kuhn, EM; Wubben, J; Ossevoort, MA; Volk, HD; Jonker, M

    2002-01-01

    Background. In rodents it has been demonstrated that blockade of the CD40-CD154 (CD40L) pathway at the time of donor-specific blood transfusion (DST) can result in indefinite graft survival. Because it has been reported in the past that DST in monkeys can have a favorable effect on graft outcome and

  19. Risk of Early Onset Substance Use among Students with and without Mild Academic Disabilities: Results of a Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kepper, Annelies; Koning, Ina; Vollebergh, Wilma; Monshouwer, Karin

    2014-01-01

    This study investigated the age of onset of substance use among 536 students with mild academic disabilities and 906 students without academic disabilities, and the extent to which emotional, conduct, and hyperactivity problems explain the differences between these two groups. Using discrete-time survival analysis, the results of this study showed…

  20. Surviving death-anxieties in liquid modern times: examining Zygmunt Bauman's cultural theory of death and dying.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Higo, Masa

    2012-01-01

    Despite his prominence as a leading contemporary social theorist, Zygmunt Bauman's long-term writing on the cultural theory of death and dying has largely been overlooked in the sociological literature of death and dying, particularly in the United States. Bauman uniquely theorizes how we survive death-anxieties today: Contemporary, liquid modern culture has engaged us in ceaseless pursuit of the unattainable consumer sensation of bodily fitness as a way to suppress and thus survive our death-anxieties. Bauman also argues that the prevalence of this cultural formula to survive death-anxieties has simultaneously increased, more than ever before in social history, the volume of individual responsibility for restlessly coping with existential anxieties in the societies of consumers. While unique and insightful, his theoretical argument has a limitation; largely succeeding Freud's classic view of mortality, Bauman's contemporary theory may lead us to neglect potentially important social, cultural, and historical variations in how mortality has been understood.

  1. Influence of Sediment Cohesion on Deltaic Morphodynamics and Stratigraphy Over Basin-Filling Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Qi; Matthew Benson, W.; Harlan, Margaret; Robichaux, Patrick; Sha, Xiaoyu; Xu, Kehui; Straub, Kyle M.

    2017-10-01

    Results from physical and numerical experiments suggest that sediment cohesion influences deltaic morphodynamics by promoting the development and maintenance of channels. As a result, cohesion is thought to increase the magnitude and time scales of internally generated (autogenic) processes and the dimensions of their stratigraphic products. We test these hypotheses by examining the surface processes and stratigraphic products from a suite of physical experiments where the influence of cohesion is isolated over temporal and spatial scales important for basin filling. Given the stochastic nature of autogenic sediment transport processes, we develop and employ a range of statistical tools and metrics. We observe that (1) an increase in sediment cohesion decreases lateral channel mobility and thus increases the time necessary to regrade deltaic surfaces; (2) enhanced channelization, due to sediment cohesion, increases the time necessary for the deposits of autogenic processes to average together and produce stratigraphic products with shapes set by the generation of regional accommodation; (3) cohesion promotes the transport of suspended sediment to terrestrial overbank and marine environments, which decreases the volume of channel, relative to overbank and marine deposits in the stratigraphic record. This increase in overbank and marine deposition changes the spatial distribution of sand in stratigraphy, with higher cohesion linked to enhanced segregation of fine particles from coarse sand in the experimental deposits. Combined, these results illustrate how the cohesion of sediment is fundamental in setting autogenic spatial and temporal scales and needs to be considered when inverting stratigraphic architecture for paleo-environmental history.

  2. Dynamic and Thermal Turbulent Time Scale Modelling for Homogeneous Shear Flows

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, John R.; Lakshminarayana, Budugur

    1994-01-01

    A new turbulence model, based upon dynamic and thermal turbulent time scale transport equations, is developed and applied to homogeneous shear flows with constant velocity and temperature gradients. The new model comprises transport equations for k, the turbulent kinetic energy; tau, the dynamic time scale; k(sub theta), the fluctuating temperature variance; and tau(sub theta), the thermal time scale. It offers conceptually parallel modeling of the dynamic and thermal turbulence at the two equation level, and eliminates the customary prescription of an empirical turbulent Prandtl number, Pr(sub t), thus permitting a more generalized prediction capability for turbulent heat transfer in complex flows and geometries. The new model also incorporates constitutive relations, based upon invariant theory, that allow the effects of nonequilibrium to modify the primary coefficients for the turbulent shear stress and heat flux. Predictions of the new model, along with those from two other similar models, are compared with experimental data for decaying homogeneous dynamic and thermal turbulence, homogeneous turbulence with constant temperature gradient, and homogeneous turbulence with constant temperature gradient and constant velocity gradient. The new model offers improvement in agreement with the data for most cases considered in this work, although it was no better than the other models for several cases where all the models performed poorly.

  3. Building a minimum frustration framework for brain functions over long time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tozzi, Arturo; Flå, Tor; Peters, James F

    2016-08-01

    The minimum frustration principle (MFP) is a computational approach stating that, over the long time scales of evolution, proteins' free energy decreases more than expected by thermodynamical constraints as their amino acids assume conformations progressively closer to the lowest energetic state. This Review shows that this general principle, borrowed from protein folding dynamics, can also be fruitfully applied to nervous function. Highlighting the foremost role of energetic requirements, macromolecular dynamics, and above all intertwined time scales in brain activity, the MFP elucidates a wide range of mental processes from sensations to memory retrieval. Brain functions are compared with trajectories that, over long nervous time scales, are attracted toward the low-energy bottom of funnel-like structures characterized by both robustness and plasticity. We discuss how the principle, derived explicitly from evolution and selection of a funneling structure from microdynamics of contacts, is unlike other brain models equipped with energy landscapes, such as the Bayesian and free energy principles and the Hopfield networks. In summary, we make available a novel approach to brain function cast in a biologically informed fashion, with the potential to be operationalized and assessed empirically. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  4. Simulating recurrent event data with hazard functions defined on a total time scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahn-Eimermacher, Antje; Ingel, Katharina; Ozga, Ann-Kathrin; Preussler, Stella; Binder, Harald

    2015-03-08

    In medical studies with recurrent event data a total time scale perspective is often needed to adequately reflect disease mechanisms. This means that the hazard process is defined on the time since some starting point, e.g. the beginning of some disease, in contrast to a gap time scale where the hazard process restarts after each event. While techniques such as the Andersen-Gill model have been developed for analyzing data from a total time perspective, techniques for the simulation of such data, e.g. for sample size planning, have not been investigated so far. We have derived a simulation algorithm covering the Andersen-Gill model that can be used for sample size planning in clinical trials as well as the investigation of modeling techniques. Specifically, we allow for fixed and/or random covariates and an arbitrary hazard function defined on a total time scale. Furthermore we take into account that individuals may be temporarily insusceptible to a recurrent incidence of the event. The methods are based on conditional distributions of the inter-event times conditional on the total time of the preceeding event or study start. Closed form solutions are provided for common distributions. The derived methods have been implemented in a readily accessible R script. The proposed techniques are illustrated by planning the sample size for a clinical trial with complex recurrent event data. The required sample size is shown to be affected not only by censoring and intra-patient correlation, but also by the presence of risk-free intervals. This demonstrates the need for a simulation algorithm that particularly allows for complex study designs where no analytical sample size formulas might exist. The derived simulation algorithm is seen to be useful for the simulation of recurrent event data that follow an Andersen-Gill model. Next to the use of a total time scale, it allows for intra-patient correlation and risk-free intervals as are often observed in clinical trial data

  5. Impact of marital status at diagnosis on survival and its change over time between 1973 and 2012 in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a propensity score-matched analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng; Liu, Xu; Chen, Yu-Pei; Mao, Yan-Ping; Guo, Rui; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Tang, Ling-Long; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

    2017-12-01

    The impact of marital status at diagnosis on survival outcomes and its change over time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) are unclear. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify patients diagnosed with NPC in the United States from 1973 to 2012. A primary comparison (married vs. unmarried) was implemented with 1:1 propensity score matching. Secondary comparisons were performed individually between three unmarried subgroups (single, separated/divorced, widowed) and married group. The effect of marital status on cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using univariate/multivariate analysis. Moreover, we investigated the change over time (1973-2012) in the effect of marital status on NPC survival. Married patients had better 5-year CSS/OS than unmarried patients (61.1% vs. 52.6%, P < 0.001; 55.6% vs. 45.3%, P < 0.001, respectively). In multivariate analysis, unmarried patients had significantly poorer CSS/OS than married patients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.35, P < 0.001; aHR = 1.40, P < 0.001, respectively). The survival benefit of being married was only detected in non-Hispanic white and Chinese American patients. Single, separated/divorced, and widowed patients had significantly poorer CSS/OS than married patients (aHR = 1.37 and 1.37; 1.46 and 1.42; 1.43 and 1.48, respectively; all P < 0.001). The change over time in the effect of marital status on survival was more stable in male than female. The strength of the negative effect of separated/divorced and widowed status showed a downward and upward trend, respectively. Gender difference in the adverse effect of single status on NPC survival became smaller over time. Only non-Hispanic white and Chinese American patients with NPC obtain survival benefits from married status. Single and widowed patients are regarded as high-risk population. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  6. Sampling plant diversity and rarity at landscape scales: importance of sampling time in species detectability.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Jian; Nielsen, Scott E; Grainger, Tess N; Kohler, Monica; Chipchar, Tim; Farr, Daniel R

    2014-01-01

    Documenting and estimating species richness at regional or landscape scales has been a major emphasis for conservation efforts, as well as for the development and testing of evolutionary and ecological theory. Rarely, however, are sampling efforts assessed on how they affect detection and estimates of species richness and rarity. In this study, vascular plant richness was sampled in 356 quarter hectare time-unlimited survey plots in the boreal region of northeast Alberta. These surveys consisted of 15,856 observations of 499 vascular plant species (97 considered to be regionally rare) collected by 12 observers over a 2 year period. Average survey time for each quarter-hectare plot was 82 minutes, ranging from 20 to 194 minutes, with a positive relationship between total survey time and total plant richness. When survey time was limited to a 20-minute search, as in other Alberta biodiversity methods, 61 species were missed. Extending the survey time to 60 minutes, reduced the number of missed species to 20, while a 90-minute cut-off time resulted in the loss of 8 species. When surveys were separated by habitat type, 60 minutes of search effort sampled nearly 90% of total observed richness for all habitats. Relative to rare species, time-unlimited surveys had ∼ 65% higher rare plant detections post-20 minutes than during the first 20 minutes of the survey. Although exhaustive sampling was attempted, observer bias was noted among observers when a subsample of plots was re-surveyed by different observers. Our findings suggest that sampling time, combined with sample size and observer effects, should be considered in landscape-scale plant biodiversity surveys.

  7. Implementation Strategies for Large-Scale Transport Simulations Using Time Domain Particle Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Painter, S.; Cvetkovic, V.; Mancillas, J.; Selroos, J.

    2008-12-01

    Time domain particle tracking is an emerging alternative to the conventional random walk particle tracking algorithm. With time domain particle tracking, particles are moved from node to node on one-dimensional pathways defined by streamlines of the groundwater flow field or by discrete subsurface features. The time to complete each deterministic segment is sampled from residence time distributions that include the effects of advection, longitudinal dispersion, a variety of kinetically controlled retention (sorption) processes, linear transformation, and temporal changes in groundwater velocities and sorption parameters. The simulation results in a set of arrival times at a monitoring location that can be post-processed with a kernel method to construct mass discharge (breakthrough) versus time. Implementation strategies differ for discrete flow (fractured media) systems and continuous porous media systems. The implementation strategy also depends on the scale at which hydraulic property heterogeneity is represented in the supporting flow model. For flow models that explicitly represent discrete features (e.g., discrete fracture networks), the sampling of residence times along segments is conceptually straightforward. For continuous porous media, such sampling needs to be related to the Lagrangian velocity field. Analytical or semi-analytical methods may be used to approximate the Lagrangian segment velocity distributions in aquifers with low-to-moderate variability, thereby capturing transport effects of subgrid velocity variability. If variability in hydraulic properties is large, however, Lagrangian velocity distributions are difficult to characterize and numerical simulations are required; in particular, numerical simulations are likely to be required for estimating the velocity integral scale as a basis for advective segment distributions. Aquifers with evolving heterogeneity scales present additional challenges. Large-scale simulations of radionuclide

  8. Residence time distribution measurements in a pilot-scale poison tank using radiotracer technique.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pant, H J; Goswami, Sunil; Samantray, J S; Sharma, V K; Maheshwari, N K

    2015-09-01

    Various types of systems are used to control the reactivity and shutting down of a nuclear reactor during emergency and routine shutdown operations. Injection of boron solution (borated water) into the core of a reactor is one of the commonly used methods during emergency operation. A pilot-scale poison tank was designed and fabricated to simulate injection of boron poison into the core of a reactor along with coolant water. In order to design a full-scale poison tank, it was desired to characterize flow of liquid from the tank. Residence time distribution (RTD) measurement and analysis was adopted to characterize the flow dynamics. Radiotracer technique was applied to measure RTD of aqueous phase in the tank using Bromine-82 as a radiotracer. RTD measurements were carried out with two different modes of operation of the tank and at different flow rates. In Mode-1, the radiotracer was instantaneously injected at the inlet and monitored at the outlet, whereas in Mode-2, the tank was filled with radiotracer and its concentration was measured at the outlet. From the measured RTD curves, mean residence times (MRTs), dead volume and fraction of liquid pumped in with time were determined. The treated RTD curves were modeled using suitable mathematical models. An axial dispersion model with high degree of backmixing was found suitable to describe flow when operated in Mode-1, whereas a tanks-in-series model with backmixing was found suitable to describe flow of the poison in the tank when operated in Mode-2. The results were utilized to scale-up and design a full-scale poison tank for a nuclear reactor. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Does mycorrhizal inoculation benefit plant survival, plant development and small-scale soil fixation? Results from a perennial eco-engineering field experiment in the Swiss Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bast, Alexander; Grimm, Maria; Graf, Frank; Baumhauer, Roland; Gärtner, Holger

    2015-04-01

    In mountain environments superficial slope failures on coarse grained, vegetation-free slopes are common processes and entail a certain risk for humans and socio-economic structures. Eco-engineering measures can be applied to mitigate slope instabilities. In this regard, limited plant survival and growth can be supported by mycorrhizal inoculation, which was successfully tested in laboratory studies. However, related studies on a field scale are lacking. Furthermore, mycorrhizae are known to enhance soil aggregation, which is linked to soil physics such as shear strength, and hence it is a useful indicator for near-surface soil/slope stability. The overall objective of our contribution was to test whether mycorrhizal inoculation can be used to promote eco-engineering measures in steep alpine environments based on a five-year field experiment. We hypothesized that mycorrhizal inoculation (i) enhances soil aggregation, (ii) stimulate plant survival and fine root development, (iii) effects plant performance, (iv) the stimulated root development in turn influences aggregate stability, and (v) that climatic variations play a major role in fine-root development. We established mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal treated eco-engineered research plots (hedge layers mainly consisting of Alnus spp. and Salix spp.) on a field experimental scale. The experimental site is in the eastern Swiss Alps at an erosion-prone slope where many environmental conditions can be seen as homogeneous. Soil aggregation, fine root development and plant survival was quantified at the end of four growing seasons (2010, '11, '12, '14). Additionally, growth properties of Alnus spp. and Salix spp. were measured and their biomass estimated. Meteorological conditions, soil temperature and soil water content were recorded. (i) The introduced eco-engineering measures enhanced aggregate stability significantly. In contrast to published greenhouse and laboratory studies, mycorrhizal inoculation delayed soil

  10. Application of Survival Analysis to Study Timing and Probability of Outcome Attainment by a Community College Student Cohort

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mourad, Roger; Hong, Ji-Hee

    2008-01-01

    This study applies competing risks survival analysis to describe outcome attainment for an entire cohort of students who first attended a Midwestern community college in the Fall Semester 2001. Outcome attainment included transfer to a four-year institution, degree/ certificate attainment from the community college under study, and transfer to a…

  11. Interrelations between the perception of time and space in large-scale environments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riemer, Martin; Hölzl, Rupert; Kleinböhl, Dieter

    2014-04-01

    Interactions between perceived temporal and spatial properties of external stimuli (e.g. duration and size) suggest common neural mechanisms underlying the perception of time and space. This conclusion, however, lacks support from studies in large-scale environments, showing that judgements on travelled distances and associated travel times are independent from each other. Here, we used a different approach to test whether the perception of travelled distances is influenced by the perception of time. Unlike previous studies, in which temporal and spatial judgements were related to the same experience of walking, we assessed time and distance perception in analogous, but separate versions of estimation and production tasks. In estimation tasks, participants estimated the duration of a presented sound (time) or the length of a travelled distance (space), and in production tasks, participants terminated a sound after a numerically specified duration (time) or covered a numerically specified distance (space). The results show systematic overestimation of time and underestimation of travelled distance, and the latter reflecting previously reported misperceptions of visual distance. Time and distance judgements were related within individuals for production, but not for estimation tasks. These results suggest that temporal information might constitute a probabilistic cue for path integration.

  12. Valuing Treatments for Parkinson Disease Incorporating Process Utility: Performance of Best-Worst Scaling, Time Trade-Off, and Visual Analogue Scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Weernink, Marieke Geertruida Maria; Groothuis-Oudshoorn, Catharina Gerarda Maria; IJzerman, Maarten Joost; van Til, Janine Astrid

    2016-01-01

    Objective The objective of this study was to compare treatment profiles including both health outcomes and process characteristics in Parkinson disease using best-worst scaling (BWS), time trade-off (TTO), and visual analogue scales (VAS). Methods From the model comprising of seven attributes with

  13. Time trends in incidence rates and survival of newly diagnosed stage IV breast cancer by tumor histology: a population-based analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Di Meglio, Antonio; Freedman, Rachel A; Lin, Nancy U; Barry, William T; Metzger-Filho, Otto; Keating, Nancy L; King, Tari A; Sertoli, Mario Roberto; Boccardo, Francesco; Winer, Eric P; Vaz-Luis, Ines

    2016-06-01

    Few contemporary data are available that compare incidence and survival of metastatic breast cancer between ductal and lobular carcinomas. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results-9 registries, we identified 10,639 patients with de novo metastatic breast cancer diagnosed from 1990 to 2011. Annual age-adjusted incidence rates and annual percent changes (APCs) were analyzed. Multivariable Cox regression models were used to investigate the impact of year of diagnosis and histology on overall survival. 9250 (86.9 %) patients had ductal and 1389 (13.1 %) had lobular carcinomas. Metastatic breast cancer incidence increased slightly over time for ductal (APC = +1.7, 95 % confidence interval (CI) = +1.0 to +2.4) and lobular carcinomas (APC = +3.0, 95 % CI = +1.8 to +4.3). Median overall survival was 22 months among the whole cohort. More recent year of diagnosis was associated with better overall survival only for patients with ductal carcinomas (interaction p value = 0.006), with an adjusted hazard ratio of death for every five-year increment in the date of diagnosis of 0.93 (95 % CI =  0.91-0.95) among ductal carcinomas, compared with 1.05 (95 % CI = 0.95-1.10) among lobular carcinomas. Overall survival was longer for lobular versus ductal carcinomas (28 versus 21 months, respectively; adjusted hazard ratio of death = 0.93, 95 % CI = 0.87-0.99), but the magnitude of this effect was attenuated among the cohort restricted to hormone receptor-positive tumors. In this population-based analysis, incidence rates of metastatic breast cancer at presentation increased slightly over time for both histologies, and particularly for lobular tumors. A modest improvement in metastatic breast cancer median overall survival was observed, but was apparently limited to ductal carcinomas.

  14. Transport on intermediate time scales in flows with cat's eye patterns

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pöschke, Patrick; Sokolov, Igor M.; Zaks, Michael A.; Nepomnyashchy, Alexander A.

    2017-12-01

    We consider the advection-diffusion transport of tracers in a one-parameter family of plane periodic flows where the patterns of streamlines feature regions of confined circulation in the shape of "cat's eyes," separated by meandering jets with ballistic motion inside them. By varying the parameter, we proceed from the regular two-dimensional lattice of eddies without jets to the sinusoidally modulated shear flow without eddies. When a weak thermal noise is added, i.e., at large Péclet numbers, several intermediate time scales arise, with qualitatively and quantitatively different transport properties: depending on the parameter of the flow, the initial position of a tracer, and the aging time, motion of the tracers ranges from subdiffusive to superballistic. We report on results of extensive numerical simulations of the mean-squared displacement for different initial conditions in ordinary and aged situations. These results are compared with a theory based on a Lévy walk that describes the intermediate-time ballistic regime and gives a reasonable description of the behavior for a certain class of initial conditions. The interplay of the walk process with internal circulation dynamics in the trapped state results at intermediate time scales in nonmonotonic characteristics of aging not captured by the Lévy walk model.

  15. US stock market efficiency over weekly, monthly, quarterly and yearly time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, E.; Aguilar-Cornejo, M.; Femat, R.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

    2014-11-01

    In financial markets, the weak form of the efficient market hypothesis implies that price returns are serially uncorrelated sequences. In other words, prices should follow a random walk behavior. Recent developments in evolutionary economic theory (Lo, 2004) have tailored the concept of adaptive market hypothesis (AMH) by proposing that market efficiency is not an all-or-none concept, but rather market efficiency is a characteristic that varies continuously over time and across markets. Within the AMH framework, this work considers the Dow Jones Index Average (DJIA) for studying the deviations from the random walk behavior over time. It is found that the market efficiency also varies over different time scales, from weeks to years. The well-known detrended fluctuation analysis was used for the characterization of the serial correlations of the return sequences. The results from the empirical showed that interday and intraday returns are more serially correlated than overnight returns. Also, some insights in the presence of business cycles (e.g., Juglar and Kuznets) are provided in terms of time variations of the scaling exponent.

  16. Degradation modeling of high temperature proton exchange membrane fuel cells using dual time scale simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pohl, E.; Maximini, M.; Bauschulte, A.; vom Schloß, J.; Hermanns, R. T. E.

    2015-02-01

    HT-PEM fuel cells suffer from performance losses due to degradation effects. Therefore, the durability of HT-PEM is currently an important factor of research and development. In this paper a novel approach is presented for an integrated short term and long term simulation of HT-PEM accelerated lifetime testing. The physical phenomena of short term and long term effects are commonly modeled separately due to the different time scales. However, in accelerated lifetime testing, long term degradation effects have a crucial impact on the short term dynamics. Our approach addresses this problem by applying a novel method for dual time scale simulation. A transient system simulation is performed for an open voltage cycle test on a HT-PEM fuel cell for a physical time of 35 days. The analysis describes the system dynamics by numerical electrochemical impedance spectroscopy. Furthermore, a performance assessment is performed in order to demonstrate the efficiency of the approach. The presented approach reduces the simulation time by approximately 73% compared to conventional simulation approach without losing too much accuracy. The approach promises a comprehensive perspective considering short term dynamic behavior and long term degradation effects.

  17. Neighborhood street scale elements, sedentary time and cardiometabolic risk factors in inactive ethnic minority women.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rebecca E Lee

    Full Text Available Cardiometabolic risk factors such as obesity, excess percent body fat, high blood pressure, elevated resting heart rate and sedentary behavior have increased in recent decades due to changes in the environment and lifestyle. Neighborhood micro-environmental, street scale elements may contribute to health above and beyond individual characteristics of residents.To investigate the relationship between neighborhood street scale elements and cardiometabolic risk factors among inactive ethnic minority women.Women (N = 410 completed measures of BMI, percent body fat, blood pressure, resting heart rate, sedentary behavior and demographics. Trained field assessors completed the Pedestrian Environment Data Scan in participants' neighborhoods. Data were collected from 2006-2008. Multiple regression models were conducted in 2011 to estimate the effect of environmental factors on cardiometabolic risk factors.Adjusted regression models found an inverse association between sidewalk buffers and blood pressure, between traffic control devices and resting heart rate, and a positive association between presence of pedestrian crossing aids and BMI (ps<.05. Neighborhood attractiveness and safety for walking and cycling were related to more time spent in a motor vehicle (ps<.05.Findings suggest complex relationships among micro-environmental, street scale elements that may confer important cardiometabolic benefits and risks for residents. Living in the most attractive and safe neighborhoods for physical activity may be associated with longer times spent sitting in the car.

  18. Characteristic time scales of electroencephalograms of narcoleptic patients and healthy controls.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Jong Won; Shin, Hongbeom; Kim, Eui-Joong; Koo, Young-Jin; Choi, Byunghun; Park, Kwang Suk; Jeong, Do-Un

    2010-10-01

    Sleep electroencephalograms (EEGs) typically showed correlated fluctuations that became random-like oscillations beyond a characteristic time scale. To investigate this behavior quantitatively, the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was applied to EEGs of 10 narcoleptic patients (22.0 ± 4.0 yrs; 6 males) and 8 healthy controls (24.0 ± 2.0 yrs; 5 males). The characteristic time scales of the narcoleptics and controls were estimated as 1.8 ± 0.7 and 4.4 ± 1.2s, respectively (significance level, pDFA of the EEGs segmented into 30s epochs and found that the DFA scaling exponents increased in deep sleep stages. These results were verified with power spectrum and auto-correlation analysis, and reproduced by a mathematical model. We thus concluded that characteristics of EEGs of narcoleptic patients could be differentiated from those of healthy subjects, suggesting a potential application of DFA in diagnosing narcolepsy. Copyright © 2010 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  19. Time scales of relaxation dynamics during transient conditions in two-phase flow: RELAXATION DYNAMICS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Schlüter, Steffen [School of Chemical, Biological and Environmental Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis Oregon USA; Department Soil Physics, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Halle Germany; Berg, Steffen [Shell Global Solutions International B.V., Rijswijk Netherlands; Li, Tianyi [School of Chemical, Biological and Environmental Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis Oregon USA; Vogel, Hans-Jörg [Department Soil Physics, Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research-UFZ, Halle Germany; Institut für Agrar- und Ernährungswissenschaften, Martin-Luther-Universität Halle-Wittenberg, Halle Germany; Wildenschild, Dorthe [School of Chemical, Biological and Environmental Engineering, Oregon State University, Corvallis Oregon USA

    2017-06-01

    The relaxation dynamics toward a hydrostatic equilibrium after a change in phase saturation in porous media is governed by fluid reconfiguration at the pore scale. Little is known whether a hydrostatic equilibrium in which all interfaces come to rest is ever reached and which microscopic processes govern the time scales of relaxation. Here we apply fast synchrotron-based X-ray tomography (X-ray CT) to measure the slow relaxation dynamics of fluid interfaces in a glass bead pack after fast drainage of the sample. The relaxation of interfaces triggers internal redistribution of fluids, reduces the surface energy stored in the fluid interfaces, and relaxes the contact angle toward the equilibrium value while the fluid topology remains unchanged. The equilibration of capillary pressures occurs in two stages: (i) a quick relaxation within seconds in which most of the pressure drop that built up during drainage is dissipated, a process that is to fast to be captured with fast X-ray CT, and (ii) a slow relaxation with characteristic time scales of 1–4 h which manifests itself as a spontaneous imbibition process that is well described by the Washburn equation for capillary rise in porous media. The slow relaxation implies that a hydrostatic equilibrium is hardly ever attained in practice when conducting two-phase experiments in which a flux boundary condition is changed from flow to no-flow. Implications for experiments with pressure boundary conditions are discussed.

  20. Retrospective epidemiological study of canine epilepsy in Japan using the International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force classification 2015 (2003-2013): etiological distribution, risk factors, survival time, and lifespan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hamamoto, Yuji; Hasegawa, Daisuke; Mizoguchi, Shunta; Yu, Yoshihiko; Wada, Masae; Kuwabara, Takayuki; Fujiwara-Igarashi, Aki; Fujita, Michio

    2016-11-09

    Epilepsy is the most common neurological disease in veterinary practice. However, contrary to human medicine, epilepsy classification in veterinary medicine had not been clearly defined until recently. A number of reports on canine epilepsy have been published, reflecting in part updated proposals from the human epilepsy organization, the International League Against Epilepsy. In 2015, the International Veterinary Epilepsy Task Force (IVETF) published a consensus report on the classification and definition of canine epilepsy. The purpose of this retrospective study was to investigate the etiological distribution, survival time of dogs with idiopathic epilepsy (IdE) and structural epilepsy (StE), and risk factors for survival time, according to the recently published IVETF classification. We investigated canine cases with epilepsy that were referred to our teaching hospital in Japan during the past 10 years, and which encompassed a different breed population from Western countries. A total of 358 dogs with epilepsy satisfied our etiological study criteria. Of these, 172 dogs (48 %) were classified as IdE and 76 dogs (21 %) as StE. Of these dogs, 100 dogs (consisting of 65 with IdE and 35 with StE) were included in our survival study. Median survival time from the initial epileptic seizure in dogs with IdE and StE was 10.4 and 4.5 years, respectively. Median lifespan of dogs with IdE and StE was 13.5 and 10.9 years, respectively. Multivariable analysis demonstrated that risk factors for survival time in IdE were high seizure frequency (≥0.3 seizures/month) and focal epileptic seizures. Focal epileptic seizures were identified as a risk factor for survival time in IdE. Clinicians should carefully differentiate seizure type as it is difficult to identify focal epileptic seizures. With good seizure control, dogs with IdE can survive for nearly the same lifespan as the general dog population. Our results using the IVETF classification are similar to previous

  1. Muscles innervated by a single motor neuron exhibit divergent synaptic properties on multiple time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Blitz, Dawn M; Pritchard, Amy E; Latimer, John K; Wakefield, Andrew T

    2017-04-01

    Adaptive changes in the output of neural circuits underlying rhythmic behaviors are relayed to muscles via motor neuron activity. Presynaptic and postsynaptic properties of neuromuscular junctions can impact the transformation from motor neuron activity to muscle response. Further, synaptic plasticity occurring on the time scale of inter-spike intervals can differ between multiple muscles innervated by the same motor neuron. In rhythmic behaviors, motor neuron bursts can elicit additional synaptic plasticity. However, it is unknown whether plasticity regulated by the longer time scale of inter-burst intervals also differs between synapses from the same neuron, and whether any such distinctions occur across a physiological activity range. To address these issues, we measured electrical responses in muscles innervated by a chewing circuit neuron, the lateral gastric (LG) motor neuron, in a well-characterized small motor system, the stomatogastric nervous system (STNS) of the Jonah crab, Cancer borealisIn vitro and in vivo, sensory, hormonal and modulatory inputs elicit LG bursting consisting of inter-spike intervals of 50-250 ms and inter-burst intervals of 2-24 s. Muscles expressed similar facilitation measured with paired stimuli except at the shortest inter-spike interval. However, distinct decay time constants resulted in differences in temporal summation. In response to bursting activity, augmentation occurred to different extents and saturated at different inter-burst intervals. Further, augmentation interacted with facilitation, resulting in distinct intra-burst facilitation between muscles. Thus, responses of multiple target muscles diverge across a physiological activity range as a result of distinct synaptic properties sensitive to multiple time scales. © 2017. Published by The Company of Biologists Ltd.

  2. Multiscale Modeling of Human-Water Interactions: The Role of Time-Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bloeschl, G.; Sivapalan, M.

    2015-12-01

    Much of the interest in hydrological modeling in the past decades revolved around resolving spatial variability. With the rapid changes brought about by human impacts on the hydrologic cycle, there is now an increasing need to refocus on time dependency. We present a co-evolutionary view of hydrologic systems, in which every part of the system including human systems, co-evolve, albeit at different rates. The resulting coupled human-nature system is framed as a dynamical system, characterized by interactions of fast and slow time scales and feedbacks between environmental and social processes. This gives rise to emergent phenomena such as the levee effect, adaptation to change and system collapse due to resource depletion. Changing human values play a key role in the emergence of these phenomena and should therefore be considered as internal to the system in a dynamic way. The co-evolutionary approach differs from the traditional view of water resource systems analysis as it allows for path dependence, multiple equilibria, lock-in situations and emergent phenomena. The approach may assist strategic water management for long time scales through facilitating stakeholder participation, exploring the possibility space of alternative futures, and helping to synthesise the observed dynamics of different case studies. Future research opportunities include the study of how changes in human values are connected to human-water interactions, historical analyses of trajectories of system co-evolution in individual places and comparative analyses of contrasting human-water systems in different climate and socio-economic settings. Reference Sivapalan, M. and G. Blöschl (2015) Time Scale Interactions and the Co-evolution of Humans and Water. Water Resour. Res., 51, in press.

  3. BME estimation of residential exposure to ambient PM10 and ozone at multiple time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Hwa-Lung; Chen, Jiu-Chiuan; Christakos, George; Jerrett, Michael

    2009-04-01

    Long-term human exposure to ambient pollutants can be an important contributing or etiologic factor of many chronic diseases. Spatiotemporal estimation (mapping) of long-term exposure at residential areas based on field observations recorded in the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's Air Quality System often suffer from missing data issues due to the scarce monitoring network across space and the inconsistent recording periods at different monitors. We developed and compared two upscaling methods: UM1 (data aggregation followed by exposure estimation) and UM2 (exposure estimation followed by data aggregation) for the long-term PM10 (particulate matter with aerodynamic diameter estimations and applied them in multiple time scales to estimate PM and ozone exposures for the residential areas of the Health Effects of Air Pollution on Lupus (HEAPL) study. We used Bayesian maximum entropy (BME) analysis for the two upscaling methods. We performed spatiotemporal cross-validations at multiple time scales by UM1 and UM2 to assess the estimation accuracy across space and time. Compared with the kriging method, the integration of soft information by the BME method can effectively increase the estimation accuracy for both pollutants. The spatiotemporal distributions of estimation errors from UM1 and UM2 were similar. The cross-validation results indicated that UM2 is generally better than UM1 in exposure estimations at multiple time scales in terms of predictive accuracy and lack of bias. For yearly PM10 estimations, both approaches have comparable performance, but the implementation of UM1 is associated with much lower computation burden. BME-based upscaling methods UM1 and UM2 can assimilate core and site-specific knowledge bases of different formats for long-term exposure estimation. This study shows that UM1 can perform reasonably well when the aggregation process does not alter the spatiotemporal structure of the original data set; otherwise, UM2 is preferable.

  4. Bedload transport flux fluctuations over a wide range of time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, H.; Fu, X.; Ancey, C.

    2014-12-01

    Bedload transport is a highly fluctuating process. Our previous study (Ma et al., 2014) demonstrated a three-regime relation of the variance of bedload transport flux across a wide range of sampling time scales. This study further explored the fluctuation spectrum of at-a-point bedload transport flux with different sampling times. We derived out analytical solutions of the third- and fourth-order moments of bedload transport flux, based on a physically-based formulation (Ancey et al., 2008; Ma et al., 2014). A formulation of the probability density function of bedload transport flux was constructed based on the 1st through 4th order moments. Experimental data were used to test against the solutions of both the moments and PDF. Interestingly, the higher order statistical moments were found to exhibit the three-regime pattern as well. This study contributes to a comprehensive understanding of bedload transport flux fluctuation and emphasizes its timescale-dependent features resulting from the discrete nature and correlated motion of bedload material. The correlated structures of bedload transport, such as bed forms and particle clusters, deserve to be further exploration in future studies. Keywords: bedload transport; stochastic theory; high order moment; fluctuation; time scale; PDF. Ancey, C., Davison, A. C., Bohm, T., Jodeau, M., and Frey, P. Entrainment and motion of coarse particles in a shallow water stream down a steep slope, Journal of Fluid Mechanics, 2008, 595, 83-114, doi: 10.1017/S0022112007008774. Ma, H. B., Heyman, J., Fu, X. D., Mettra, F., Ancey, C. and Parker, G. Bedload transport over a broad range of time scales: determination of three regimes of fluctuations. Journal of Geophysical Research-Earth Surface, 2014. (under review)

  5. Scaling behavior of EEG amplitude and frequency time series across sleep stages

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kantelhardt, Jan W.; Tismer, Sebastian; Gans, Fabian; Schumann, Aicko Y.; Penzel, Thomas

    2015-10-01

    We study short-term and long-term persistence properties (related with auto-correlations) of amplitudes and frequencies of EEG oscillations in 176 healthy subjects and 40 patients during nocturnal sleep. The amplitudes show scaling from 2 to 500 seconds (depending on the considered band) with large fluctuation exponents during (nocturnal) wakefulness (0.73-0.83) and small ones during deep sleep (0.50-0.69). Light sleep is similar to deep sleep, while REM sleep (0.64-0.76) is closer to wakefulness except for the EEG γ band. Some of the frequency time series also show long-term scaling, depending on the selected bands and stages. Only minor deviations are seen for patients with depression, anxiety, or Parkinson's disease.

  6. The Sensitivity of Income Polarization - Time, length of accounting periods, equivalence scales, and income definitions

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Azhar, Hussain

    This study looks at polarization and its components’ sensitivity to assumptions about equivalence scales, income definition, ethical income distribution parameters, and the income accounting period. A representative sample of Danish individual incomes from 1984 to 2002 is utilised. Results show...... that polarization has increased over time, regardless of the applied measure, when the last part of the period is compared to the first part of the period. Primary causes being increased inequality (alienation) and faster income growth among high incomes relative to those in the middle of the distribution....... Increasing the accounting period confirms the reduction in inequality found for shorter periods, but polarization is virtually unchanged, because income group identification increases. Applying different equivalence scales does not change polarization ranking for different years, but identification ranks...

  7. Time asynchronous relative dimension in space method for multi-scale problems in fluid dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markesteijn, A. P.; Karabasov, S. A.

    2014-02-01

    A novel computational method is presented for solving fluid dynamics equations in the multi-scale framework when the system size is an important parameter of the governing equations. The method (TARDIS) is based on a concurrent transformation of the governing equations in space and time and solving the transformed equations on a uniform Cartesian grid with the corresponding causality conditions at the grid interfaces. For implementation in the framework of TARDIS, the second-order CABARET scheme of Karabasov and Goloviznin [1] is selected for it provides a good combination of numerical accuracy, computational efficiency and simplicity of realisation. Numerical examples are first provided for several isothermal gas dynamics test problems and then for modelling of molecular fluctuations inside a microscopic flow channel and ultrasound wave propagation through a nano-scale region of molecular fluctuations.

  8. Rate dependence of grain boundary sliding via time-scaling atomistic simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammami, Farah; Kulkarni, Yashashree

    2017-02-01

    Approaching experimentally relevant strain rates has been a long-standing challenge for molecular dynamics method which captures phenomena typically on the scale of nanoseconds or at strain rates of 107 s-1 and higher. Here, we use grain boundary sliding in nanostructures as a paradigmatic problem to investigate rate dependence using atomistic simulations. We employ a combination of time-scaling computational approaches, including the autonomous basin climbing method, the nudged elastic band method, and kinetic Monte Carlo, to access strain rates ranging from 0.5 s-1 to 107 s-1. Combined with a standard linear solid model for viscoelastic behavior, our simulations reveal that grain boundary sliding exhibits noticeable rate dependence only below strain rates on the order of 10 s-1 but is rate independent and consistent with molecular dynamics at higher strain rates.

  9. Cosmological perturbations in inflationary models with anisotropic space-time scaling in a Lifshitz background

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alishahiha, Mohsen; Firouzjahi, Hassan; Koyama, Kazuya; Namjoo, Mohammad Hossein

    2013-11-01

    Models of inflation in a gravitational background with an anisotropic space-time scaling are studied. The background is a higher-dimensional Lifshitz throat with the anisotropy scaling z≠1. After the dimensional reduction, the four-dimensional general covariance is explicitly broken to a three-dimensional spatial diffeomorphism. As a result the cosmological perturbation theory in this setup with less symmetries have to be formulated. We present the consistent cosmological perturbation theory for this setup. We find that the effective four-dimensional gravitational wave perturbations propagate with a different speed than the higher dimensional gravitational excitations. Depending on the model parameters, for an observer inside the throat, the four-dimensional gravitational wave propagation can be superluminal. We also find that the Bardeen potential and the Newtonian potential are different. This can have interesting observational consequences for lensing and cosmic microwave background fluctuations. Furthermore, we show that at the linearized level the inflaton field excitations vanish.

  10. Spatio-temporal modeling of connectome-scale brain network interactions via time-evolving graphs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Jing; Li, Xiang; Zhang, Jinhe; Luo, Liao; Dong, Qinglin; Lv, Jinglei; Zhao, Yu; Jiang, Xi; Zhang, Shu; Zhang, Wei; Liu, Tianming

    2017-11-09

    Many recent literature studies have revealed interesting dynamics patterns of functional brain networks derived from fMRI data. However, it has been rarely explored how functional networks spatially overlap (or interact) and how such connectome-scale network interactions temporally evolve. To explore these unanswered questions, this paper presents a novel framework for spatio-temporal modeling of connectome-scale functional brain network interactions via two main effective computational methodologies. First, to integrate, pool and compare brain networks across individuals and their cognitive states under task performances, we designed a novel group-wise dictionary learning scheme to derive connectome-scale consistent brain network templates that can be used to define the common reference space of brain network interactions. Second, the temporal dynamics of spatial network interactions is modeled by a weighted time-evolving graph, and then a data-driven unsupervised learning algorithm based on the dynamic behavioral mixed-membership model (DBMM) is adopted to identify behavioral patterns of brain networks during the temporal evolution process of spatial overlaps/interactions. Experimental results on the Human Connectome Project (HCP) task fMRI data showed that our methods can reveal meaningful, diverse behavior patterns of connectome-scale network interactions. In particular, those networks' behavior patterns are distinct across HCP tasks such as motor, working memory, language and social tasks, and their dynamics well correspond to the temporal changes of specific task designs. In general, our framework offers a new approach to characterizing human brain function by quantitative description for the temporal evolution of spatial overlaps/interactions of connectome-scale brain networks in a standard reference space. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. [Effects of fuzheng jianpi decoction combined chemotherapy on the quality of life and the survival time of children with solid tumor].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Xue; Zhu, Xiu-Dan; Wang, Huan-Ming

    2012-09-01

    To study the effects of Fuzheng Jianpi Decoction (FJD) combined chemotherapy on the quality of life (QOL) and the survival time of children with solid tumor. Recruited were 167 solid tumor children patients at Department of Tumor, Beijing Children's Hospital from Jan. 2005 to Jan. 2008. They were randomly assigned to the treatment group (83 cases) and the control group (84 cases) according to the random digit table. All had chemotherapy. Those in the treatment group additionally took FJD, 50 -100 mL each time, twice daily. After chemotherapy those in the treatment group took modified FJD. The WBC, Hb, and PLT were detected in all patients before treatment, 6 months after treatment, and 1 year after treatment. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year QOL, 3-year survival rate, and the survival life of dead children patients were observed. Compared with the control group of the same period, the 6-month and 1-year WBC and Hb increased, the 1-year PLT increased in the treatment group, showing statistical difference (Pchildren was prolonged in the treatment group, showing statistical difference (Pchemotherapy could effectively improve the QOL of solid tumor children patients, elevate their survival rate, and prolong their life spans.

  12. Intramolecular stable isotope distributions detect plant metabolic responses on century time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schleucher, Jürgen; Ehlers, Ina; Augusti, Angela; Betson, Tatiana

    2014-05-01

    Plants respond to environmental changes on a vast range of time scales, and plant gas exchanges constitute important feedback mechanisms in the global C cycle. Responses on time scales of decades to centuries are most important for climate models, for prediction of crop productivity, and for adaptation to climate change. Unfortunately, responses on these timescale are least understood. We argue that the knowledge gap on intermediate time scales is due to a lack of adequate methods that can bridge between short-term manipulative experiments (e.g. FACE) and paleo research. Manipulative experiments in plant ecophysiology give information on metabolism on time scales up to years. However, this information cannot be linked to results from retrospective studies in paleo research, because little metabolic information can be derived from paleo archives. Stable isotopes are prominent tools in plant ecophysiology, biogeochemistry and in paleo research, but in all applications to date, isotope ratios of whole molecules are measured. However, it is well established that stable isotope abundance varies among intramolecular groups of biochemical metabolites, that is each so-called "isotopomer" has a distinct abundance. This intramolecular variation carries information on metabolic regulation, which can even be traced to individual enzymes (Schleucher et al., Plant, Cell Environ 1999). Here, we apply intramolecular isotope distributions to study the metabolic response of plants to increasing atmospheric [CO2] during the past century. Greenhouse experiments show that the deuterium abundance among the two positions in the C6H2 group of photosynthetic glucose depends on [CO2] during growth. This is observed for all plants using C3 photosynthesis, and reflects the metabolic flux ratio between photorespiration and photosynthesis. Photorespiration is a major C flux that limits assimilation in C3 plants, which encompass the overwhelming fraction of terrestrial photosynthesis and the

  13. Hemopathologic predisposition and survival time under continuous gamma irradiation: responses mediated by altered radiosensitivity of hemopoietic progenitors

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Seed, T.M.; Kaspar, L.V.; Tolle, D.V.; Fritz, T.E.

    1982-01-01

    These marked differences in radiosensitivity of individual animals within a relatively homogeneous, healthy pure bred group, as manifested by varying survival patterns and pathologic tendencies, have stimulated studies concerning the cellular bases of these responses. In previous studies, as in this one, the authors have attempted to characterize the cellular processes of hemopoietic recovery, an early occurring event characteristically observed in a select subgroup of MPD dogs exhibiting prolonged course of survival and a tendency to myeloproliferative disorders (MPD). Hemopoietic recovery appears to be a broadly based process as indicated by: (a) increased concentrations of blood granulocytes; (b) expanded granulocyte reserves; and (c) increased concentration of hemopoietic progenitors in the marrow. The intent of the present study was to examine the possibility that the cellular basis of hemopoietic recovery resides in the acquisition of increased radioresistance by hemopoietic progenitors, i.e., the suspected cellular targets of the hemopathic effects of ionizing irradiation.

  14. Association Between Change in Body Mass Index, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale Scores, and Survival Among Persons With Parkinson Disease: Secondary Analysis of Longitudinal Data From NINDS Exploratory Trials in Parkinson Disease Long-term Study 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Anne-Marie A; Pérez, Adriana; Wang, Jue; Su, Xiao; Morgan, John; Rajan, Suja S; Leehey, Maureen A; Pontone, Gregory M; Chou, Kelvin L; Umeh, Chizoba; Mari, Zoltan; Boyd, James

    2016-03-01

    Greater body mass index (BMI, calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is associated with improved survival among persons with Huntington disease or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Weight loss is common among persons with Parkinson disease (PD) and is associated with worse quality of life. To explore the association between change in BMI, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor and total scores, and survival among persons with PD and to test whether there is a positive association between BMI at randomization and survival. Secondary analysis (from May 27, 2014, to October 13, 2015) of longitudinal data (3-6 years) from 1673 participants who started the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Exploratory Trials in PD Long-term Study-1 (NET-PD LS-1). This was a double-blind randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial of creatine monohydrate (10 g/d) that was performed at 45 sites throughout the United States and Canada. Participants with early (within 5 years of diagnosis) and treated (receiving dopaminergic therapy) PD were enrolled from March 2007 to May 2010 and followed up until September 2013. Change across time in motor UPDRS score, change across time in total UPDRS score, and time to death. Generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of BMI on the change in motor and total UPDRS scores after controlling for covariates. Survival was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models of time to death. A participant's BMI was measured at randomization, and BMI trajectory groups were classified according to whether participants experienced weight loss ("decreasing BMI"), weight stability ("stable BMI"), or weight gain ("increasing BMI") during the study. Of the 1673 participants (mean [SD] age, 61.7 [9.6] years; 1074 [64.2%] were male), 158 (9.4%) experienced weight loss (decreasing BMI), whereas 233 (13.9%) experienced weight gain (increasing BMI). After adjusting for covariates, we

  15. Time scales and structures of wave interaction exemplified with water waves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kartashova, Elena

    2013-05-01

    Presently two models for computing energy spectra in weakly nonlinear dispersive media are known: kinetic wave turbulence theory, using a statistical description of an energy cascade over a continuous spectrum (K-cascade), and the D-model, describing resonant clusters and energy cascades (D-cascade) in a deterministic way as interaction of distinct modes. In this letter we give an overview of these structures and their properties and a list of criteria about which model of energy cascade should be used in the analysis of a given experiment, using water waves as an example. Applying the time scale analysis to weakly nonlinear wave systems modeled by the focusing nonlinear Schödinger equation, we demonstrate that K-cascade and D-cascade are not competing processes but rather two processes taking place at different time scales, at different characteristic levels of nonlinearity and based on different physical mechanisms. Applying those criteria to data known from experiments with surface water waves we find that the energy cascades observed occur at short characteristic times compatible only with a D-cascade. The only pre-requisite for a D-cascade being a focusing nonlinear Schödinger equation, the same analysis may be applied to existing experiments with wave systems appearing in hydrodynamics, nonlinear optics, electrodynamics, plasma, convection theory, etc.

  16. Relativistic electron acceleration and decay time scales in the inner and outer radiation belts: SAMPEX

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baker, D. N.; Blake, J. B.; Callis, L. B.; Cummings, J. R.; Hovestadt, D.; Kanekal, S.; Klecker, B.; Mewaldt, R. A.; Zwickl, R. D.

    1994-01-01

    High-energy electrons have been measured systematically in a low-altitude (520 x 675 km), nearly polar (inclination = 82 deg) orbit by sensitive instruments onboard the Solar, Anomalous, and Magnetospheric Particle Explorer (SAMPEX). Count rate channels with electron energy thresholds ranging from 0.4 MeV to 3.5 MeV in three different instruments have been used to examine relativistic electron variations as a function of L-shell parameter and time. A long run of essentially continuous data (July 1992 - July 1993) shows substantial acceleration of energetic electrons throughout much of the magnetosphere on rapid time scales. This acceleration appears to be due to solar wind velocity enhancements and is surprisingly large in that the radiation belt 'slot' region often is filled temporarily and electron fluxes