WorldWideScience

Sample records for survival time scale

  1. Probabilistic Survivability Versus Time Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyner, James J., Sr.

    2016-01-01

    This presentation documents Kennedy Space Center's Independent Assessment work completed on three assessments for the Ground Systems Development and Operations (GSDO) Program to assist the Chief Safety and Mission Assurance Officer during key programmatic reviews and provided the GSDO Program with analyses of how egress time affects the likelihood of astronaut and ground worker survival during an emergency. For each assessment, a team developed probability distributions for hazard scenarios to address statistical uncertainty, resulting in survivability plots over time. The first assessment developed a mathematical model of probabilistic survivability versus time to reach a safe location using an ideal Emergency Egress System at Launch Complex 39B (LC-39B); the second used the first model to evaluate and compare various egress systems under consideration at LC-39B. The third used a modified LC-39B model to determine if a specific hazard decreased survivability more rapidly than other events during flight hardware processing in Kennedy's Vehicle Assembly Building.

  2. A generalized additive regression model for survival times

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Scheike, Thomas H.

    2001-01-01

    Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models......Additive Aalen model; counting process; disability model; illness-death model; generalized additive models; multiple time-scales; non-parametric estimation; survival data; varying-coefficient models...

  3. Trends in scale and shape of survival curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weon, Byung Mook; Je, Jung Ho

    2012-01-01

    The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

  4. Linking age, survival, and transit time distributions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Calabrese, Salvatore; Porporato, Amilcare

    2015-10-01

    Although the concepts of age, survival, and transit time have been widely used in many fields, including population dynamics, chemical engineering, and hydrology, a comprehensive mathematical framework is still missing. Here we discuss several relationships among these quantities by starting from the evolution equation for the joint distribution of age and survival, from which the equations for age and survival time readily follow. It also becomes apparent how the statistical dependence between age and survival is directly related to either the age dependence of the loss function or the survival-time dependence of the input function. The solution of the joint distribution equation also allows us to obtain the relationships between the age at exit (or death) and the survival time at input (or birth), as well as to stress the symmetries of the various distributions under time reversal. The transit time is then obtained as a sum of the age and survival time, and its properties are discussed along with the general relationships between their mean values. The special case of steady state case is analyzed in detail. Some examples, inspired by hydrologic applications, are presented to illustrate the theory with the specific results. This article was corrected on 11 Nov 2015. See the end of the full text for details.

  5. Multiple time scale dynamics

    CERN Document Server

    Kuehn, Christian

    2015-01-01

    This book provides an introduction to dynamical systems with multiple time scales. The approach it takes is to provide an overview of key areas, particularly topics that are less available in the introductory form.  The broad range of topics included makes it accessible for students and researchers new to the field to gain a quick and thorough overview. The first of its kind, this book merges a wide variety of different mathematical techniques into a more unified framework. The book is highly illustrated with many examples and exercises and an extensive bibliography. The target audience of this  book are senior undergraduates, graduate students as well as researchers interested in using the multiple time scale dynamics theory in nonlinear science, either from a theoretical or a mathematical modeling perspective. 

  6. Evolution of Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2006-12-01

    as the fundamental unit of time in the International System of Units. It was defined as ( Metrologia , 1968) “the duration of 9 192 631 770 periods of...atomic time equivalent to the second of ET in principle. The Comité Consultatif pour la Définition de la Seconde (CCDS) of the CIPM recommended...with the definition of the second, the unit of time of the Inter- national System of Units” ( Metrologia , 1971). The CCDS (BIPM Com. Cons. Déf. Seconde

  7. Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes

    OpenAIRE

    Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Alvaro

    2014-01-01

    Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We reveal the finite-size scaling law of the survival probability for a given branching process ruled by a probability distribution of the number of offspring per element whose standard deviation is finite, obtaining the exact scaling function as well as the critical exponents. Our findings prove the universal behavi...

  8. On the Geologic Time Scale

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gradstein, F.M.; Ogg, J.G.; Hilgen, F.J.

    2012-01-01

    This report summarizes the international divisions and ages in the Geologic Time Scale, published in 2012 (GTS2012). Since 2004, when GTS2004 was detailed, major developments have taken place that directly bear and have considerable impact on the intricate science of geologic time scaling. Precam

  9. Dynamic inequalities on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Agarwal, Ravi; Saker, Samir

    2014-01-01

    This is a monograph devoted to recent research and results on dynamic inequalities on time scales. The study of dynamic inequalities on time scales has been covered extensively in the literature in recent years and has now become a major sub-field in pure and applied mathematics. In particular, this book will cover recent results on integral inequalities, including Young's inequality, Jensen's inequality, Holder's inequality, Minkowski's inequality, Steffensen's inequality, Hermite-Hadamard inequality and Čebyšv's inequality. Opial type inequalities on time scales and their extensions with weighted functions, Lyapunov type inequalities, Halanay type inequalities for dynamic equations on time scales, and Wirtinger type inequalities on time scales and their extensions will also be discussed here in detail.

  10. Fledgling survival increases with development time and adult survival across north and south temperate zones

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lloyd, Penn; Martin, Thomas E.

    2016-01-01

    Slow life histories are characterized by high adult survival and few offspring, which are thought to allow increased investment per offspring to increase juvenile survival. Consistent with this pattern, south temperate zone birds are commonly longer-lived and have fewer young than north temperate zone species. However, comparative analyses of juvenile survival, including during the first few weeks of the post-fledging period when most juvenile mortality occurs, are largely lacking. We combined our measurements of fledgling survival for eight passerines in South Africa with estimates from published studies of 57 north and south temperate zone songbird species to test three predictions: (1) fledgling survival increases with length of development time in the nest; (2) fledgling survival increases with adult survival and reduced brood size controlled for development time; and (3) south temperate zone species, with their higher adult survival and smaller brood sizes, exhibit higher fledgling survival than north temperate zone species controlled for development time. We found that fledgling survival was higher among south temperate zone species and generally increased with development time and adult survival within and between latitudinal regions. Clutch size did not explain additional variation, but was confounded with adult survival. Given the importance of age-specific mortality to life history evolution, understanding the causes of these geographical patterns of mortality is important.

  11. Pair plasma relaxation time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aksenov, A G; Ruffini, R; Vereshchagin, G V

    2010-04-01

    By numerically solving the relativistic Boltzmann equations, we compute the time scale for relaxation to thermal equilibrium for an optically thick electron-positron plasma with baryon loading. We focus on the time scales of electromagnetic interactions. The collisional integrals are obtained directly from the corresponding QED matrix elements. Thermalization time scales are computed for a wide range of values of both the total-energy density (over 10 orders of magnitude) and of the baryonic loading parameter (over 6 orders of magnitude). This also allows us to study such interesting limiting cases as the almost purely electron-positron plasma or electron-proton plasma as well as intermediate cases. These results appear to be important both for laboratory experiments aimed at generating optically thick pair plasmas as well as for astrophysical models in which electron-positron pair plasmas play a relevant role.

  12. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached by focusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kind of substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time. The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “ever-living present.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductory matter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternal recurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is a treatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations in the n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have done away with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives as eternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of the nature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notion of holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory. I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence of actual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in his reflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentially more integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in the last section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin, as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’s inspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretation leads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of its reconciliation

  13. Integral Time and the Varieties of Post-Mortem Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sean M. Kelly

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available While the question of survival of bodily death is usually approached byfocusing on the mind/body relation (and often with the idea of the soul as a special kindof substance, this paper explores the issue in the context of our understanding of time.The argument of the paper is woven around the central intuition of time as an “everlivingpresent.” The development of this intuition allows for a more integral or “complexholistic”theory of time, the soul, and the question of survival. Following the introductorymatter, the first section proposes a re-interpretation of Nietzsche’s doctrine of eternalrecurrence in terms of moments and lives as “eternally occurring.” The next section is atreatment of Julian Barbour’s neo-Machian model of instants of time as configurations inthe n-dimensional phase-space he calls “Platonia.” While rejecting his claim to have doneaway with time, I do find his model suggestive of the idea of moments and lives aseternally occurring. The following section begins with Fechner’s visionary ideas of thenature of the soul and its survival of bodily death, with particular attention to the notionof holonic inclusion and the central analogy of the transition from perception to memory.I turn next to Whitehead’s equally holonic notions of prehension and the concrescence ofactual occasions. From his epochal theory of time and certain ambiguities in hisreflections on the “divine antinomies,” we are brought to the threshold of a potentiallymore integral or “complex-holistic” theory of time and survival, which is treated in thelast section. This section draws from my earlier work on Hegel, Jung, and Edgar Morin,as well as from key insights of Jean Gebser, for an interpretation of Sri Aurobindo’sinspired but cryptic description of the “Supramental Time Vision.” This interpretationleads to an alternative understanding of reincarnation—and to the possibility of itsreconciliation with the once-only view

  14. Finite-size scaling of survival probability in branching processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia-Millan, Rosalba; Font-Clos, Francesc; Corral, Álvaro

    2015-04-01

    Branching processes pervade many models in statistical physics. We investigate the survival probability of a Galton-Watson branching process after a finite number of generations. We derive analytically the existence of finite-size scaling for the survival probability as a function of the control parameter and the maximum number of generations, obtaining the critical exponents as well as the exact scaling function, which is G(y)=2ye(y)/(e(y)-1), with y the rescaled distance to the critical point. Our findings are valid for any branching process of the Galton-Watson type, independently of the distribution of the number of offspring, provided its variance is finite. This proves the universal behavior of the finite-size effects in branching processes, including the universality of the metric factors. The direct relation to mean-field percolation is also discussed.

  15. Competitive Dynamics of Market Entry: Scale and Survival

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    John W. UPSON

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available Market entry is the essence of strategy and is largely viewed as a dichotomous event: entry or no entry. What has not been acknowledged is the uniqueness of each market entry. Our study highlights the scale of market entry in the context of multipoint competition. We assert that entry scale varies based on the risk of market incumbent retaliation. Theory suggests that when risk associated with retaliation are low, firms enter with large scale and when associated risks are high, firms enter with low scale. Further, survival is viewed as dependent on following theory. We argue and find supporting evidence that firms behave in the opposite manner and do so to their own benefit, thereby revealing a unique discrepancy between theory and practice among 75 product market entries by 27 firms.

  16. A laboratory scale fundamental time?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mendes, R.V.

    2012-01-01

    The existence of a fundamental time (or fundamental length) has been conjectured in many contexts. However, the ''stability of physical theories principle'' seems to be the one that provides, through the tools of algebraic deformation theory, an unambiguous derivation of the stable structures that Nature might have chosen for its algebraic framework. It is well-known that c and ℎ are the deformation parameters that stabilize the Galilean and the Poisson algebra. When the stability principle is applied to the Poincare-Heisenberg algebra, two deformation parameters emerge which define two time (or length) scales. In addition there are, for each of them, a plus or minus sign possibility in the relevant commutators. One of the deformation length scales, related to non-commutativity of momenta, is probably related to the Planck length scale but the other might be much larger and already detectable in laboratory experiments. In this paper, this is used as a working hypothesis to look for physical effects that might settle this question. Phase-space modifications, resonances, interference, electron spin resonance and non-commutative QED are considered. (orig.)

  17. Predicting survival time in noncurative patients with advanced cancer: a prospective study in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cui, Jing; Zhou, Lingjun; Wee, B; Shen, Fengping; Ma, Xiuqiang; Zhao, Jijun

    2014-05-01

    Accurate prediction of prognosis for cancer patients is important for good clinical decision making in therapeutic and care strategies. The application of prognostic tools and indicators could improve prediction accuracy. This study aimed to develop a new prognostic scale to predict survival time of advanced cancer patients in China. We prospectively collected items that we anticipated might influence survival time of advanced cancer patients. Participants were recruited from 12 hospitals in Shanghai, China. We collected data including demographic information, clinical symptoms and signs, and biochemical test results. Log-rank tests, Cox regression, and linear regression were performed to develop a prognostic scale. Three hundred twenty patients with advanced cancer were recruited. Fourteen prognostic factors were included in the prognostic scale: Karnofsky Performance Scale (KPS) score, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, white blood cell (WBC) count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, aspartate aminotransferase (AST), and alkaline phosphatase (ALP) values. The score was calculated by summing the partial scores, ranging from 0 to 30. When using the cutoff points of 7-day, 30-day, 90-day, and 180-day survival time, the scores were calculated as 12, 10, 8, and 6, respectively. We propose a new prognostic scale including KPS, pain, ascites, hydrothorax, edema, delirium, cachexia, WBC count, hemoglobin, sodium, total bilirubin, direct bilirubin, AST, and ALP values, which may help guide physicians in predicting the likely survival time of cancer patients more accurately. More studies are needed to validate this scale in the future.

  18. Mean exit time and survival probability within the CTRW formalism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montero, M.; Masoliver, J.

    2007-05-01

    An intense research on financial market microstructure is presently in progress. Continuous time random walks (CTRWs) are general models capable to capture the small-scale properties that high frequency data series show. The use of CTRW models in the analysis of financial problems is quite recent and their potentials have not been fully developed. Here we present two (closely related) applications of great interest in risk control. In the first place, we will review the problem of modelling the behaviour of the mean exit time (MET) of a process out of a given region of fixed size. The surveyed stochastic processes are the cumulative returns of asset prices. The link between the value of the MET and the timescale of the market fluctuations of a certain degree is crystal clear. In this sense, MET value may help, for instance, in deciding the optimal time horizon for the investment. The MET is, however, one among the statistics of a distribution of bigger interest: the survival probability (SP), the likelihood that after some lapse of time a process remains inside the given region without having crossed its boundaries. The final part of the manuscript is devoted to the study of this quantity. Note that the use of SPs may outperform the standard “Value at Risk" (VaR) method for two reasons: we can consider other market dynamics than the limited Wiener process and, even in this case, a risk level derived from the SP will ensure (within the desired quintile) that the quoted value of the portfolio will not leave the safety zone. We present some preliminary theoretical and applied results concerning this topic.

  19. Dialogue concerning the survival of the one great world system: a study of the post-war scientific and theological perception of time scales as a relevant moral category in analyzing the dilemmas of the nuclear age

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cummins, D.J.F.

    1985-01-01

    This thesis seeks to extend the search for the moral implications inherent in the development, possession, and the threatened use of physical/astrophysical processes and in current understandings of the evolution of the physical universe. The nature of normal/theological discussion will not be a primary concern although clearly some residual position that such discussion is meaningful is presupposed. Neither is the nature of science or the scientific method at issue. It is assumed that both theology and science have long since negotiated the confidence crises of adolescence, and have mustered the requisite self-esteem regarding their respective disciplines. The aim of this work is to present the concept of time scales as a relevant moral category. It investigates the use of this concept and its relationship to the other categories developed in the relevant scientific literature. The question is raised as to the validity of and the future of the concept of time scales as a common moral ground.

  20. Dialogue concerning the survival of the one great world system: a study of the post-war scientific and theological perception of time scales as a relevant moral category in analyzing the dilemmas of the nuclear age

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cummins, D.J.F.

    1985-01-01

    This thesis seeks to extend the search for the moral implications inherent in the development, possession, and the threatened use of physical/astrophysical processes and in current understandings of the evolution of the physical universe. The nature of normal/theological discussion will not be a primary concern although clearly some residual position that such discussion is meaningful is presupposed. Neither is the nature of science or the scientific method at issue. It is assumed that both theology and science have long since negotiated the confidence crises of adolescence, and have mustered the requisite self-esteem regarding their respective disciplines. The aim of this work is to present the concept of time scales as a relevant moral category. It investigates the use of this concept and its relationship to the other categories developed in the relevant scientific literature. The question is raised as to the validity of and the future of the concept of time scales as a common moral ground

  1. The Neurologic Assessment in Neuro-Oncology (NANO) Scale as an Assessment Tool for Survival in Patients With Primary Glioblastoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ung, Timothy H; Ney, Douglas E; Damek, Denise; Rusthoven, Chad G; Youssef, A Samy; Lillehei, Kevin O; Ormond, D Ryan

    2018-03-30

    The Neurologic Assessment in Neuro-Oncology (NANO) scale is a standardized objective metric designed to measure neurological function in neuro-oncology. Current neuroradiological evaluation guidelines fail to use specific clinical criteria for progression. To determine if the NANO scale was a reliable assessment tool in glioblastoma (GBM) patients and whether it correlated to survival. Our group performed a retrospective review of all patients with newly diagnosed GBM from January 1, 2010, through December 31, 2012, at our institution. We applied the NANO scale, Karnofsky performance score (KPS), Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group (ECOG) scale, Macdonald criteria, and the Response Assessment in Neuro-Oncology (RANO) criteria to patients at the time of diagnosis as well as at 3, 6, and 12 mo. Initial NANO score was correlated with overall survival at time of presentation. NANO progression was correlated with decreased survival in patients at 6 and 12 mo. A decrease in KPS was associated with survival at 3 and 6 mo, an increase in ECOG score was associated only at 3 mo, and radiological evaluation (RANO and Macdonald) was correlated at 3 and 6 mo. Only the NANO scale was associated with patient survival at 1 yr. NANO progression was the only metric that was linked to decreased overall survival when compared to RANO and Macdonald at 6 and 12 mo. The NANO scale is specific to neuro-oncology and can be used to assess patients with glioma. This retrospective analysis demonstrates the usefulness of the NANO scale in glioblastoma.

  2. Effect of liquid nitrogen storage time on the survival and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Investigations were undertaken on the effect of liquid nitrogen (LN) storage time on survival and regeneration of somatic embryos of cocoa (Theobroma cacao l.). Somatic embryos from different cocoa genotypes (AMAZ 3-2, AMAZ 10-1, AMAZ 12, SIAL 93, and IMC 14) at 15.45% moisture content were cryopreserved in LN ...

  3. Effect of fibrinolysis inhibitors on survival time of irradiated rats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smok, W.

    1988-01-01

    The possibilities of alleviation of the gastrointestinal syndrome of acute radiation sickness by modification of haemorrhagic diathesis using EACA and traskolan were studied. A significant prolongation of the mean survival time was obtained in the irradiated rats treated with EACA. 7 tabs., 10 refs. (author)

  4. Estimates of expansion time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jones, E.M.

    1979-01-01

    Monte Carlo simulations of the expansion of a spacefaring civilization show that descendants of that civilization should be found near virtually every useful star in the Galaxy in a time much less than the current age of the Galaxy. Only extreme assumptions about local population growth rates, emigration rates, or ship ranges can slow or halt an expansion. The apparent absence of extraterrestrials from the solar system suggests that no such civilization has arisen in the Galaxy. 1 figure

  5. Stochastic time scale for the Universe

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Szydlowski, M.; Golda, Z.

    1986-01-01

    An intrinsic time scale is naturally defined within stochastic gradient dynamical systems. It should be interpreted as a ''relaxation time'' to a local potential minimum after the system has been randomly perturbed. It is shown that for a flat Friedman-like cosmological model this time scale is of order of the age of the Universe. 7 refs. (author)

  6. Time scale in quasifission reactions

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Back, B.B.; Paul, P.; Nestler, J. [and others

    1995-08-01

    The quasifission process arises from the hindrance of the complete fusion process when heavy-ion beams are used. The strong dissipation in the system tends to prevent fusion and lead the system towards reseparation into two final products of similar mass reminiscent of a fission process. This dissipation slows down the mass transfer and shape transformation and allows for the emission of high energy {gamma}-rays during the process, albeit with a low probability. Giant Dipole {gamma} rays emitted during this time have a characteristic spectral shape and may thus be discerned in the presence of a background of {gamma} rays emitted from the final fission-like fragments. Since the rate of GDR {gamma} emission is very well established, the strength of this component may therefore be used to measure the timescale of the quasifission process. In this experiment we studied the reaction between 368-MeV {sup 58}Ni and a {sup 165}Ho target, where deep inelastic scattering and quasifission processes are dominant. Coincidences between fission fragments (detected in four position-sensitive avalanche detectors) and high energy {gamma} rays (measured in a 10{close_quotes} x 10{close_quotes} actively shielded NaI detector) were registered. Beams were provided by the Stony Brook Superconducting Linac. The {gamma}-ray spectrum associated with deep inelastic scattering events is well reproduced by statistical cooling of projectile and target-like fragments with close to equal initial excitation energy sharing. The y spectrum associated with quasifission events is well described by statistical emission from the fission fragments alone, with only weak evidence for GDR emission from the mono-nucleus. A 1{sigma} limit of t{sub ss} < 11 x 10{sup -21} s is obtained for the mono-nucleus lifetime, which is consistent with the lifetime obtained from quasifission fragment angular distributions. A manuscript was accepted for publication.

  7. Some nonlinear dynamic inequalities on time scales

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    In 1988, Stefan Hilger [10] introduced the calculus on time scales which unifies continuous and discrete analysis. Since then many authors have expounded on various aspects of the theory of dynamic equations on time scales. Recently, there has been much research activity concerning the new theory. For example, we ...

  8. Multiple time scale methods in tokamak magnetohydrodynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jardin, S.C.

    1984-01-01

    Several methods are discussed for integrating the magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) equations in tokamak systems on other than the fastest time scale. The dynamical grid method for simulating ideal MHD instabilities utilizes a natural nonorthogonal time-dependent coordinate transformation based on the magnetic field lines. The coordinate transformation is chosen to be free of the fast time scale motion itself, and to yield a relatively simple scalar equation for the total pressure, P = p + B 2 /2μ 0 , which can be integrated implicitly to average over the fast time scale oscillations. Two methods are described for the resistive time scale. The zero-mass method uses a reduced set of two-fluid transport equations obtained by expanding in the inverse magnetic Reynolds number, and in the small ratio of perpendicular to parallel mobilities and thermal conductivities. The momentum equation becomes a constraint equation that forces the pressure and magnetic fields and currents to remain in force balance equilibrium as they evolve. The large mass method artificially scales up the ion mass and viscosity, thereby reducing the severe time scale disparity between wavelike and diffusionlike phenomena, but not changing the resistive time scale behavior. Other methods addressing the intermediate time scales are discussed

  9. Uniform Statistical Convergence on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yavuz Altin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available We will introduce the concept of m- and (λ,m-uniform density of a set and m- and (λ,m-uniform statistical convergence on an arbitrary time scale. However, we will define m-uniform Cauchy function on a time scale. Furthermore, some relations about these new notions are also obtained.

  10. The two-parametric scaling and new temporal asymptotic of survival probability of diffusing particle in the medium with traps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhincheev, V E

    2017-03-01

    The new asymptotic behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps in an electric field has been established in two ways-by using the scaling approach and by the direct solution of the diffusion equation in the field. It has shown that at long times, this drift mechanism leads to a new temporal behavior of the survival probability of particles in a medium with absorbing traps.

  11. Time Scale in Least Square Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Özgür Yeniay

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Study of dynamic equations in time scale is a new area in mathematics. Time scale tries to build a bridge between real numbers and integers. Two derivatives in time scale have been introduced and called as delta and nabla derivative. Delta derivative concept is defined as forward direction, and nabla derivative concept is defined as backward direction. Within the scope of this study, we consider the method of obtaining parameters of regression equation of integer values through time scale. Therefore, we implemented least squares method according to derivative definition of time scale and obtained coefficients related to the model. Here, there exist two coefficients originating from forward and backward jump operators relevant to the same model, which are different from each other. Occurrence of such a situation is equal to total number of values of vertical deviation between regression equations and observation values of forward and backward jump operators divided by two. We also estimated coefficients for the model using ordinary least squares method. As a result, we made an introduction to least squares method on time scale. We think that time scale theory would be a new vision in least square especially when assumptions of linear regression are violated.

  12. Time dependent ethnic convergence in colorectal cancer survival in hawaii

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hundahl Scott A

    2003-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Although colorectal cancer death rates have been declining, this trend is not consistent across all ethnic groups. Biological, environmental, behavioral and socioeconomic explanations exist, but the reason for this discrepancy remains inconclusive. We examined the hypothesis that improved cancer screening across all ethnic groups will reduce ethnic differences in colorectal cancer survival. Methods Through the Hawaii Tumor Registry 16,424 patients diagnosed with colorectal cancer were identified during the years 1960–2000. Cox regression analyses were performed for each of three cohorts stratified by ethnicity (Caucasian, Japanese, Hawaiian, Filipino, and Chinese. The models included stage of diagnosis, year of diagnosis, age, and sex as predictors of survival. Results Mortality rates improved significantly for all ethnic groups. Moreover, with the exception of Hawaiians, rates for all ethnic groups converged over time. Persistently lower survival for Hawaiians appeared linked with more cancer treatment. Conclusion Ethnic disparities in colorectal cancer mortality rates appear primarily the result of differential utilization of health care. If modern screening procedures can be provided equally to all ethnic groups, ethnic outcome differences can be virtually eliminated.

  13. Survival times of pre-1950 US women radium dial workers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stehney, A.F.

    1994-01-01

    Survival times of US women radium dial workers to the end of 1989 were examined by life table methods. Included were 1301 women rust employed before 1930 and 1242 first employed in 1930-1949. Expected numbers of deaths were estimated from age- and time-specific death rates for US white females. In the early group, 85 deaths from the well-known radium-induced cancers - bone sarcomas and head carcinomas - were observed, but only 724 deaths from aH other causes were observed vs 755 expected. Life shortening (±S.E.) of 1.8 ±0.5 y compared to the general population of US white females was calculated from the time distribution of all deaths in the pre-1930 group. In the 1930--1949 group, 350 deaths were observed vs 343 expected and no bone sarcomas or head carcinomas occurred. Among women who survived at least 2 y after rust measurement of body radium, a significant excess of observed vs expected deaths was found only for radium intakes greater than 1.85 MBq of 226 Ra + 228 Ra, and no trend of deaths or reduction of life expectancy was found with length of employment

  14. Hardy type inequalities on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Agarwal, Ravi P; Saker, Samir H

    2016-01-01

    The book is devoted to dynamic inequalities of Hardy type and extensions and generalizations via convexity on a time scale T. In particular, the book contains the time scale versions of classical Hardy type inequalities, Hardy and Littlewood type inequalities, Hardy-Knopp type inequalities via convexity, Copson type inequalities, Copson-Beesack type inequalities, Liendeler type inequalities, Levinson type inequalities and Pachpatte type inequalities, Bennett type inequalities, Chan type inequalities, and Hardy type inequalities with two different weight functions. These dynamic inequalities contain the classical continuous and discrete inequalities as special cases when T = R and T = N and can be extended to different types of inequalities on different time scales such as T = hN, h > 0, T = qN for q > 1, etc.In this book the authors followed the history and development of these inequalities. Each section in self-contained and one can see the relationship between the time scale versions of the inequalities and...

  15. Steffensen's Integral Inequality on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ozkan Umut Mutlu

    2007-01-01

    Full Text Available We establish generalizations of Steffensen's integral inequality on time scales via the diamond- dynamic integral, which is defined as a linear combination of the delta and nabla integrals.

  16. JY1 time scale: a new Kalman-filter time scale designed at NIST

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yao, Jian; Parker, Thomas E; Levine, Judah

    2017-01-01

    We report on a new Kalman-filter hydrogen-maser time scale (i.e. JY1 time scale) designed at the National Institute of Standards and Technology (NIST). The JY1 time scale is composed of a few hydrogen masers and a commercial Cs clock. The Cs clock is used as a reference clock to ease operations with existing data. Unlike other time scales, the JY1 time scale uses three basic time-scale equations, instead of only one equation. Also, this time scale can detect a clock error (i.e. time error, frequency error, or frequency drift error) automatically. These features make the JY1 time scale stiff and less likely to be affected by an abnormal clock. Tests show that the JY1 time scale deviates from the UTC by less than  ±5 ns for ∼100 d, when the time scale is initially aligned to the UTC and then is completely free running. Once the time scale is steered to a Cs fountain, it can maintain the time with little error even if the Cs fountain stops working for tens of days. This can be helpful when we do not have a continuously operated fountain or when the continuously operated fountain accidentally stops, or when optical clocks run occasionally. (paper)

  17. Mouse Activity across Time Scales: Fractal Scenarios

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lima, G. Z. dos Santos; Lobão-Soares, B.; do Nascimento, G. C.; França, Arthur S. C.; Muratori, L.; Ribeiro, S.; Corso, G.

    2014-01-01

    In this work we devise a classification of mouse activity patterns based on accelerometer data using Detrended Fluctuation Analysis. We use two characteristic mouse behavioural states as benchmarks in this study: waking in free activity and slow-wave sleep (SWS). In both situations we find roughly the same pattern: for short time intervals we observe high correlation in activity - a typical 1/f complex pattern - while for large time intervals there is anti-correlation. High correlation of short intervals ( to : waking state and to : SWS) is related to highly coordinated muscle activity. In the waking state we associate high correlation both to muscle activity and to mouse stereotyped movements (grooming, waking, etc.). On the other side, the observed anti-correlation over large time scales ( to : waking state and to : SWS) during SWS appears related to a feedback autonomic response. The transition from correlated regime at short scales to an anti-correlated regime at large scales during SWS is given by the respiratory cycle interval, while during the waking state this transition occurs at the time scale corresponding to the duration of the stereotyped mouse movements. Furthermore, we find that the waking state is characterized by longer time scales than SWS and by a softer transition from correlation to anti-correlation. Moreover, this soft transition in the waking state encompass a behavioural time scale window that gives rise to a multifractal pattern. We believe that the observed multifractality in mouse activity is formed by the integration of several stereotyped movements each one with a characteristic time correlation. Finally, we compare scaling properties of body acceleration fluctuation time series during sleep and wake periods for healthy mice. Interestingly, differences between sleep and wake in the scaling exponents are comparable to previous works regarding human heartbeat. Complementarily, the nature of these sleep-wake dynamics could lead to a better

  18. Multivariable dynamic calculus on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Bohner, Martin

    2016-01-01

    This book offers the reader an overview of recent developments of multivariable dynamic calculus on time scales, taking readers beyond the traditional calculus texts. Covering topics from parameter-dependent integrals to partial differentiation on time scales, the book’s nine pedagogically oriented chapters provide a pathway to this active area of research that will appeal to students and researchers in mathematics and the physical sciences. The authors present a clear and well-organized treatment of the concept behind the mathematics and solution techniques, including many practical examples and exercises.

  19. Time scales in tidal disruption events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krolik J.

    2012-12-01

    Full Text Available We explore the temporal structure of tidal disruption events pointing out the corresponding transitions in the lightcurves of the thermal accretion disk and of the jet emerging from such events. The hydrodynamic time scale of the disrupted star is the minimal time scale of building up the accretion disk and the jet and it sets a limit on the rise time. This suggest that Swift J1644+57, that shows several flares with a rise time as short as a few hundred seconds could not have arisen from a tidal disruption of a main sequence star whose hydrodynamic time is a few hours. The disrupted object must have been a white dwarf. A second important time scale is the Eddington time in which the accretion rate changes form super to sub Eddington. It is possible that such a transition was observed in the light curve of Swift J2058+05. If correct this provides interesting constraints on the parameters of the system.

  20. The Second Noether Theorem on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Agnieszka B. Malinowska

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We extend the second Noether theorem to variational problems on time scales. As corollaries we obtain the classical second Noether theorem, the second Noether theorem for the h-calculus and the second Noether theorem for the q-calculus.

  1. Structure of Student Time Management Scale (STMS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balamurugan, M.

    2013-01-01

    With the aim of constructing a Student Time Management Scale (STMS), the initial version was administered and data were collected from 523 standard eleventh students. (Mean age = 15.64). The data obtained were subjected to Reliability and Factor analysis using PASW Statistical software version 18. From 42 items 14 were dropped, resulting in the…

  2. Some Nonlinear Dynamic Inequalities on Time Scales

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    The aim of this paper is to investigate some nonlinear dynamic inequalities on time scales, which provide explicit bounds on unknown functions. The inequalities given here unify and extend some inequalities in (B G Pachpatte, On some new inequalities related to a certain inequality arising in the theory of differential ...

  3. Special Issue on Time Scale Algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    2008-01-01

    unclassified Standard Form 298 (Rev. 8-98) Prescribed by ANSI Std Z39-18 IOP PUBLISHING METROLOGIA Metrologia 45 (2008) doi:10.1088/0026-1394/45/6/E01...special issue of Metrologia presents selected papers from the Fifth International Time Scale Algorithm Symposium (VITSAS), including some of the...scientists, and hosted by the Real Instituto y Observatorio de la Armada (ROA) in San Fernando, Spain, whose staff further enhanced their nation’s high

  4. Current relaxation time scales in toroidal plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mikkelsen, D.R.

    1987-02-01

    An approximate normal mode analysis of plasma current diffusion in tokamaks is presented. The work is based on numerical solutions of the current diffusion equation in cylindrical geometry. Eigenvalues and eigenfunctions are shown for a broad range of plasma conductivity profile shapes. Three classes of solutions are considered which correspond to three types of tokamak operation. Convenient approximations to the three lowest eigenvalues in each class are presented and simple formulae for the current relaxation time scales are given

  5. Liquidity crises on different time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Corradi, Francesco; Zaccaria, Andrea; Pietronero, Luciano

    2015-12-01

    We present an empirical analysis of the microstructure of financial markets and, in particular, of the static and dynamic properties of liquidity. We find that on relatively large time scales (15 min) large price fluctuations are connected to the failure of the subtle mechanism of compensation between the flows of market and limit orders: in other words, the missed revelation of the latent order book breaks the dynamical equilibrium between the flows, triggering the large price jumps. On smaller time scales (30 s), instead, the static depletion of the limit order book is an indicator of an intrinsic fragility of the system, which is related to a strongly nonlinear enhancement of the response. In order to quantify this phenomenon we introduce a measure of the liquidity imbalance present in the book and we show that it is correlated to both the sign and the magnitude of the next price movement. These findings provide a quantitative definition of the effective liquidity, which proves to be strongly dependent on the considered time scales.

  6. Multidimensional scaling of musical time estimations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cocenas-Silva, Raquel; Bueno, José Lino Oliveira; Molin, Paul; Bigand, Emmanuel

    2011-06-01

    The aim of this study was to identify the psycho-musical factors that govern time evaluation in Western music from baroque, classic, romantic, and modern repertoires. The excerpts were previously found to represent variability in musical properties and to induce four main categories of emotions. 48 participants (musicians and nonmusicians) freely listened to 16 musical excerpts (lasting 20 sec. each) and grouped those that seemed to have the same duration. Then, participants associated each group of excerpts to one of a set of sine wave tones varying in duration from 16 to 24 sec. Multidimensional scaling analysis generated a two-dimensional solution for these time judgments. Musical excerpts with high arousal produced an overestimation of time, and affective valence had little influence on time perception. The duration was also overestimated when tempo and loudness were higher, and to a lesser extent, timbre density. In contrast, musical tension had little influence.

  7. Biotic survival in the cryobiosphere on geological scale: implication for astro/terrestrial biogeoscience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gilichinsky, D.

    2003-04-01

    and exposes ancient life to modern ecosystems. It is now possible for the first time to use actual functional indices of viable organisms and the most complete pollen spectrum based on RNA sequences for paleoreconstructions in the frozen mantle of the Earth. Unique to the permafrost, the good preservation DNA the wide implications may have the development of a microbiological time-scale using the progress in molecular biology. The phylogenetic trees of the same organisms from the modern layers to the several millions years old, will help to find out what are the differences among members of the same species as we go back in time. This would be a beginning of studies concerning the rate of evolution and biological clocks extending back the duration of the permanently frozen state in the soils and the age of biota. From an exobiological point of view, the terrestrial permafrost and ice, inhabited by cold adapted microbes and protecting the cells against unfavorable conditions can be considered as an extraterrestrial model. The cells and their metabolic end-products found in the Earth's permafrost provide a range of analogues that could be used in the search for possible ecosystems and potential inhabitants on extraterrestrial cryogenic bodies. If life should be found to have distribution in the Cosmos beyond the Earth and existed on other planets during the early stages of development, then its traces may consist of primitive cryogenic forms at the cell level within the extraterrestrial permanently frozen materials. That is more, it could be hypothesized, for example, that subsurface Martian permafrost might survive the genetic resources of preexisting life that vanished due the catastrophic events on the planet. The main difference between Earth's and Martian permafrost is their age: few million and few billion years, correspondingly. This difference in time scale have a significant impact on the possibility for life preservation and terrestrial frozen sediments

  8. uncertain dynamic systems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    V. Lakshmikantham

    1995-01-01

    Full Text Available A basic feedback control problem is that of obtaining some desired stability property from a system which contains uncertainties due to unknown inputs into the system. Despite such imperfect knowledge in the selected mathematical model, we often seek to devise controllers that will steer the system in a certain required fashion. Various classes of controllers whose design is based on the method of Lyapunov are known for both discrete [4], [10], [15], and continuous [3–9], [11] models described by difference and differential equations, respectively. Recently, a theory for what is known as dynamic systems on time scales has been built which incorporates both continuous and discrete times, namely, time as an arbitrary closed sets of reals, and allows us to handle both systems simultaneously [1], [2], [12], [13]. This theory permits one to get some insight into and better understanding of the subtle differences between discrete and continuous systems. We shall, in this paper, utilize the framework of the theory of dynamic systems on time scales to investigate the stability properties of conditionally invariant sets which are then applied to discuss controlled systems with uncertain elements. For the notion of conditionally invariant set and its stability properties, see [14]. Our results offer a new approach to the problem in question.

  9. Time-Scale Invariant Audio Data Embedding

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mansour Mohamed F

    2003-01-01

    Full Text Available We propose a novel algorithm for high-quality data embedding in audio. The algorithm is based on changing the relative length of the middle segment between two successive maximum and minimum peaks to embed data. Spline interpolation is used to change the lengths. To ensure smooth monotonic behavior between peaks, a hybrid orthogonal and nonorthogonal wavelet decomposition is used prior to data embedding. The possible data embedding rates are between 20 and 30 bps. However, for practical purposes, we use repetition codes, and the effective embedding data rate is around 5 bps. The algorithm is invariant after time-scale modification, time shift, and time cropping. It gives high-quality output and is robust to mp3 compression.

  10. Rubber dam may increase the survival time of dental restorations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keys, William; Carson, Susan J

    2017-03-01

    Data sourcesCochrane Oral Health's Trials Register, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials (CENTRAL), Medline, Embase, LILACS, SciELO, Chinese BioMedical Literature Database, VIP, China National Knowledge Infrastructure, ClinicalTrials.gov, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, OpenGrey and Sciencepaper Online databases. Handsearches in a number of journals.Study selectionRandomised controlled trials, including split-mouth studies assessing the effects of rubber dam isolation for restorative treatments in dental patients.Data extraction and synthesisTwo review authors independently screened the results of the electronic searches, extracted data and assessed the risk of bias of the included studies.ResultsFour studies involving a total of 1,270 patients were included. The studies were at high risk of bias. One trial was excluded from the analysis due to inconsistencies in the presented data. Restorations had a significantly higher survival rate in the rubber dam isolation group compared to the cotton roll isolation group at six months in participants receiving composite restorative treatment of non-carious cervical lesions (risk ratio (RR) 1.19, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.04 to 1.37, very low-quality evidence). The rubber dam group had a lower risk of failure at two years in children undergoing proximal atraumatic restorative treatment in primary molars (hazard ratio (HR) 0.80, 95% CI 0.66 to 0.97, very low-quality evidence). One trial reported limited data showing that rubber dam usage during fissure sealing might shorten the treatment time. None of the included studies mentioned adverse effects or reported the direct cost of the treatment, or the level of patient acceptance/satisfaction. There was also no evidence evaluating the effects of rubber dam usage on the quality of the restorations.ConclusionsWe found some very low-quality evidence, from single studies, suggesting that rubber dam usage in dental direct

  11. Association between time to disease progression end points and overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine tumors

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Singh S

    2014-08-01

    Full Text Available Simron Singh,1 Xufang Wang,2 Calvin HL Law1 1Sunnybrook Odette Cancer Center, University of Toronto, Toronto, ON, Canada; 2Novartis Oncology, Florham Park, NJ, USA Abstract: Overall survival can be difficult to determine for slowly progressing malignancies, such as neuroendocrine tumors. We investigated whether time to disease progression is positively associated with overall survival in patients with such tumors. A literature review identified 22 clinical trials in patients with neuroendocrine tumors that reported survival probabilities for both time to disease progression (progression-free survival and time to progression and overall survival. Associations between median time to disease progression and median overall survival and between treatment effects on time to disease progression and treatment effects on overall survival were analyzed using weighted least-squares regression. Median time to disease progression was significantly associated with median overall survival (coefficient 0.595; P=0.022. In the seven randomized studies identified, the risk reduction for time to disease progression was positively associated with the risk reduction for overall survival (coefficient on −ln[HR] 0.151; 95% confidence interval −0.843, 1.145; P=0.713. The significant association between median time to disease progression and median overall survival supports the assertion that time to disease progression is an alternative end point to overall survival in patients with neuroendocrine tumors. An apparent albeit not significant trend correlates treatment effects on time to disease progression and treatment effects on overall survival. Informal surveys of physicians’ perceptions are consistent with these concepts, although additional randomized trials are needed. Keywords: neuroendocrine tumors, progression-free survival, disease progression, mortality

  12. Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

  13. What affects local community hospitals' survival in turbulent times?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chiang, Hung-Che; Wang, Shiow-Ing

    2015-06-01

    Hospital closures became a prevalent phenomenon in Taiwan after the implementation of a national health insurance program. A wide range of causes contributes to the viability of hospitals, but little is known about the situation under universal coverage health systems. The purpose of present study is to recognize the factors that may contribute to hospital survival under the universal coverage health system. This is a retrospective case-control study. Local community hospitals that contracted with the Bureau of National Health Insurance in 1998 and remained open during the period 1998-2011 are the designated cases. Controls are local community hospitals that closed during the same period. Using longitudinal representative health claim data, 209 local community hospitals that closed during 1998-2011 were compared with 165 that remained open. Variables related to institutional characteristics, degree of competition, characteristics of patients and financial performance were analyzed by logistic regression models. Hospitals' survival was positively related to specialty hospital, the number of respiratory care beds, the physician to population ratio, the number of clinics in the same region, a highly competitive market and the occupancy rate of elderly patients in the hospital. Teaching hospitals, investor-owned hospitals, the provision of obstetrics services or home care, and the number of medical centers or other local community hospitals may jeopardize the chance of survival. Factors-enhanced local hospitals to survive under the universal coverage health system have been identified. Hospital managers could manipulate these findings and adapt strategies for subsistence. © The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press in association with the International Society for Quality in Health Care; all rights reserved.

  14. EDITORIAL: Special issue on time scale algorithms

    Science.gov (United States)

    Matsakis, Demetrios; Tavella, Patrizia

    2008-12-01

    This special issue of Metrologia presents selected papers from the Fifth International Time Scale Algorithm Symposium (VITSAS), including some of the tutorials presented on the first day. The symposium was attended by 76 persons, from every continent except Antarctica, by students as well as senior scientists, and hosted by the Real Instituto y Observatorio de la Armada (ROA) in San Fernando, Spain, whose staff further enhanced their nation's high reputation for hospitality. Although a timescale can be simply defined as a weighted average of clocks, whose purpose is to measure time better than any individual clock, timescale theory has long been and continues to be a vibrant field of research that has both followed and helped to create advances in the art of timekeeping. There is no perfect timescale algorithm, because every one embodies a compromise involving user needs. Some users wish to generate a constant frequency, perhaps not necessarily one that is well-defined with respect to the definition of a second. Other users might want a clock which is as close to UTC or a particular reference clock as possible, or perhaps wish to minimize the maximum variation from that standard. In contrast to the steered timescales that would be required by those users, other users may need free-running timescales, which are independent of external information. While no algorithm can meet all these needs, every algorithm can benefit from some form of tuning. The optimal tuning, and even the optimal algorithm, can depend on the noise characteristics of the frequency standards, or of their comparison systems, the most precise and accurate of which are currently Two Way Satellite Time and Frequency Transfer (TWSTFT) and GPS carrier phase time transfer. The interest in time scale algorithms and its associated statistical methodology began around 40 years ago when the Allan variance appeared and when the metrological institutions started realizing ensemble atomic time using more than

  15. Sex-related time-dependent variations in post-stroke survival-evidence of a female stroke survival advantage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Olsen, Tom Skyhøj; Dehlendorff, Christian; Andersen, Klaus Kaae

    2007-01-01

    the influence of gender on post-stroke mortality, from the time of admission through the subsequent years until death or censoring ( mean follow-up time: 538 days). All patients underwent an evaluation including stroke severity, computed tomography and cardiovascular risk factors. Independent predictors......Background: Women live longer than men, yet most studies show that gender has no influence on survival after stroke. Methods: A registry was started in 2001, with the aim of registering all hospitalized stroke patients in Denmark, and it now holds 39,484 patients of which 48% are female. We studied...... of death were identified by means of a survival model based on 22,222 individuals with a complete data set. Results: Females were older and had severer stroke. Interestingly, the risk of death between genders was time dependent. The female/male stroke mortality rate favoured women from the first day...

  16. Habitat edges have weak effects on duck nest survival at local spatial scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Raquel, Amelia J; Ringelman, Kevin M.; Ackerman, Joshua T.; Eadie, John M.

    2015-01-01

    Edge effects on nesting success have been documented in breeding birds in a variety of contexts, but there is still uncertainty in how edge type and spatial scale determine the magnitude and detectability of edge effects. Habitat edges are often viewed as predator corridors that surround or penetrate core habitat and increase the risk of predation for nearby nests. We studied the effects of three different types of potential predator corridors (main perimeter roads, field boundaries, and ATV trails within fields) on waterfowl nest survival in California. We measured the distance from duck nests to the nearest edge of each type, and used distance as a covariate in a logistic exposure analysis of nest survival. We found only weak evidence for edge effects due to predation. The best supported model of nest survival included all three distance categories, and while all coefficient estimates were positive (indicating that survival increased with distance from edge), 85% coefficient confidence intervals approached or bounded zero indicating an overall weak effect of habitat edges on nest success. We suggest that given the configuration of edges at our site, there may be few areas far enough from hard edges to be considered ‘core’ habitat, making edge effects on nest survival particularly difficult to detect.

  17. Survival Times of Meter-Sized Rock Boulders on the Surface of Airless Bodies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basilevsky, A. T.; Head, J. W.; Horz, F.; Ramsley, K.

    2015-01-01

    This study considers the survival times of meter-sized rock boulders on the surfaces of several airless bodies. As the starting point, we employ estimates of the survival times of such boulders on the surface of the Moon by[1], then discuss the role of destruction due to day-night temperature cycling, consider the meteorite bombardment environment on the considered bodies in terms of projectile flux and velocities and finally estimate the survival times. Survival times of meter-sized rocks on lunar surface: The survival times of hand specimen-sized rocks exposed to the lunar surface environment were estimated based on experiments modeling the destruction of rocks by meteorite impacts, combined with measurements of the lunar surface meteorite flux, (e.g.,[2]). For estimations of the survival times of meter-sized lunar boulders, [1] suggested a different approach based on analysis of the spatial density of boulders on the rims of small lunar craters of known absolute age. It was found that for a few million years, only a small fraction of the boulders ejected by cratering process are destroyed, for several tens of million years approx.50% are destroyed, and for 200-300 Ma, 90 to 99% are destroyed. Following [2] and other works, [1] considered that the rocks are mostly destroyed by meteorite impacts. Destruction of rocks by thermal-stress. However, high diurnal temperature variations on the surface of the Moon and other airless bodies imply that thermal stresses may also be a cause of surface rock destruction. Delbo et al. [3] interpreted the observed presence of fine debris on the surface of small asteroids as due to thermal surface cycling. They stated that because of the very low gravity on the surface of these bodies, ejecta from meteorite impacts should leave the body, so formation there of fine debris has to be due to thermal cycling. Based on experiments on heating-cooling of cm-scale pieces of ordinary and carbonaceous chondrites and theoretical modeling of

  18. Modelling the joint distribution of competing risks survival times using copula functions

    OpenAIRE

    Kaishev, V. K.; Haberman, S.; Dimitrova, D. S.

    2005-01-01

    The problem of modelling the joint distribution of survival times in a competing risks model, using copula functions is considered. In order to evaluate this joint distribution and the related overall survival function, a system of non-linear differential equations is solved, which relates the crude and net survival functions of the modelled competing risks, through the copula. A similar approach to modelling dependent multiple decrements was applied by Carriere (1994) who used a Gaussian cop...

  19. Almost Automorphic Functions on the Quantum Time Scale and Applications

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongkun Li

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We first propose two types of concepts of almost automorphic functions on the quantum time scale. Secondly, we study some basic properties of almost automorphic functions on the quantum time scale. Then, we introduce a transformation between functions defined on the quantum time scale and functions defined on the set of generalized integer numbers; by using this transformation we give equivalent definitions of almost automorphic functions on the quantum time scale; following the idea of the transformation, we also give a concept of almost automorphic functions on more general time scales that can unify the concepts of almost automorphic functions on almost periodic time scales and on the quantum time scale. Finally, as an application of our results, we establish the existence of almost automorphic solutions of linear and semilinear dynamic equations on the quantum time scale.

  20. Surviving in a metastable de Sitter space-time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kashyap, Sitender Pratap; Mondal, Swapnamay; Sen, Ashoke; Verma, Mritunjay

    2015-01-01

    In a metastable de Sitter space any object has a finite life expectancy beyond which it undergoes vacuum decay. However, by spreading into different parts of the universe which will fall out of causal contact of each other in future, a civilization can increase its collective life expectancy, defined as the average time after which the last settlement disappears due to vacuum decay. We study in detail the collective life expectancy of two comoving objects in de Sitter space as a function of the initial separation, the horizon radius and the vacuum decay rate. We find that even with a modest initial separation, the collective life expectancy can reach a value close to the maximum possible value of 1.5 times that of the individual object if the decay rate is less than 1% of the expansion rate. Our analysis can be generalized to any number of objects, general trajectories not necessarily at rest in the comoving coordinates and general FRW space-time. As part of our analysis we find that in the current state of the universe dominated by matter and cosmological constant, the vacuum decay rate is increasing as a function of time due to accelerated expansion of the volume of the past light cone. Present decay rate is about 3.7 times larger than the average decay rate in the past and the final decay rate in the cosmological constant dominated epoch will be about 56 times larger than the average decay rate in the past. This considerably weakens the lower bound on the half-life of our universe based on its current age.

  1. Surviving in a metastable de Sitter space-time

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kashyap, Sitender Pratap; Mondal, Swapnamay [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); Sen, Ashoke [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); School of Physics, Korea Institute for Advanced Study,Seoul 130-722 (Korea, Republic of); Verma, Mritunjay [Harish-Chandra Research Institute,Chhatnag Road, Jhusi, Allahabad 211019 (India); International Centre for Theoretical Sciences,Malleshwaram, Bengaluru 560 012 (India)

    2015-09-21

    In a metastable de Sitter space any object has a finite life expectancy beyond which it undergoes vacuum decay. However, by spreading into different parts of the universe which will fall out of causal contact of each other in future, a civilization can increase its collective life expectancy, defined as the average time after which the last settlement disappears due to vacuum decay. We study in detail the collective life expectancy of two comoving objects in de Sitter space as a function of the initial separation, the horizon radius and the vacuum decay rate. We find that even with a modest initial separation, the collective life expectancy can reach a value close to the maximum possible value of 1.5 times that of the individual object if the decay rate is less than 1% of the expansion rate. Our analysis can be generalized to any number of objects, general trajectories not necessarily at rest in the comoving coordinates and general FRW space-time. As part of our analysis we find that in the current state of the universe dominated by matter and cosmological constant, the vacuum decay rate is increasing as a function of time due to accelerated expansion of the volume of the past light cone. Present decay rate is about 3.7 times larger than the average decay rate in the past and the final decay rate in the cosmological constant dominated epoch will be about 56 times larger than the average decay rate in the past. This considerably weakens the lower bound on the half-life of our universe based on its current age.

  2. Lessons from Cacti: How to Survive the Prickles of Life during Tough Times

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bigger, Alan S.; Bigger, Linda B.

    2009-01-01

    The saguaro cactus looked a little like humans, in different shapes and sizes. How on earth do they survive in a climate that seems so inhospitable? It is possible to learn lessons for life from a cactus, if one can only get beyond the thorns, and that these lessons will assist one to survive during tough or prickly times. These plants survive…

  3. Enhancement of radiation effect on mouse intestinal crypt survival by timing of 5-fluorouracil administration

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, E.; Coffey, C.; Maruyama, Y.

    1977-01-01

    There is a marked dependence of mouse crypt survival on the sequence of combined drug-radiation treatment and on the time lapse between irradiation and drug administration. When 5-fluorouracil is administered 6 hours after irradiation or later (up to 18 hours postirradiation), crypt survival drops significantly

  4. Survival and prognostic factors at time of diagnosis in high-grade appendicular osteosarcoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Colding-Rasmussen, Thomas; Thorn, Andrea Pohly; Horstmann, Peter

    2018-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Survival of patients with high-grade osteosarcoma (HOS), the most common primary bone cancer, has not improved significantly the last 30 years and the disease remains a major challenge. The purpose of this study is to evaluate survival in relation to prognostic factors at time of diag...

  5. A Quaternary Geomagnetic Instability Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Singer, B. S.

    2013-12-01

    Reversals and excursions of Earth's geomagnetic field create marker horizons that are readily detected in sedimentary and volcanic rocks worldwide. An accurate and precise chronology of these geomagnetic field instabilities is fundamental to understanding several aspects of Quaternary climate, dynamo processes, and surface processes. For example, stratigraphic correlation between marine sediment and polar ice records of climate change across the cryospheres benefits from a highly resolved record of reversals and excursions. The temporal patterns of dynamo behavior may reflect physical interactions between the molten outer core and the solid inner core or lowermost mantle. These interactions may control reversal frequency and shape the weak magnetic fields that arise during successive dynamo instabilities. Moreover, weakening of the axial dipole during reversals and excursions enhances the production of cosmogenic isotopes that are used in sediment and ice core stratigraphy and surface exposure dating. The Geomagnetic Instability Time Scale (GITS) is based on the direct dating of transitional polarity states recorded by lava flows using the 40Ar/39Ar method, in parallel with astrochronologic age models of marine sediments in which O isotope and magnetic records have been obtained. A review of data from Quaternary lava flows and sediments yields a GITS comprising 10 polarity reversals and 27 excursions during the past 2.6 million years. Nine of the ten reversals bounding chrons and subchrons are associated with 40Ar/39Ar ages of transitionally-magnetized lava flows. The tenth, the Guass-Matuyama chron boundary, is tightly bracketed by 40Ar/39Ar dated ash deposits. Of the 27 well-documented excursions, 14 occurred during the Matuyama chron and 13 during the Brunhes chron; 19 have been dated directly using the 40Ar/39Ar method on transitionally-magnetized volcanic rocks and form the backbone of the GITS. Excursions are clearly not the rare phenomena once thought

  6. Survival and leaching of Tetracycline resistant bacteria and fecal indicators from manure in field scale experiments

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bech, Tina; Amin, Mostofa; Lægdsmand, Mette

    The spreading of manure on agricultural land is an economic and practical solution for improving soil quality; however, animal manure frequently contains zoonotic pathogenic bacteria, such as certain Eschericia coli, Salmonella spp. and Campylobacter spp. The present experiment was conducted...... as a large multidisciplinary project. Pig manure with a natural content of Tetracycline resistant bacteria and fecal indicator organisms was followed in soil columns and a field scale experiment. In the field experiment pig manure was injected into agricultural soil. The distribution and survival of natural...... occurring indicator bacteria around a manure slurry slit in the soil was followed. During a period of two months, sections of soils with different distance to the manure string were assayed to obtain information on survival and spread of bacteriophage, faecal indicators (Enterococci, Bacterioides, E. coli...

  7. Providing Survivable Real-Time Communication Service for Distributed Mission Critical Systems

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Zhao, Wei; Bettati, Riccardo; Vaidya, Nitin

    2005-01-01

    This document is the final report for Providing Survivable Real-Time Communication Service for Distributed Mission Critical Systems, a Texas A AND M project funded through the DARPA Fault Tolerant Networks Program...

  8. Rigorous bounds on survival times in circular accelerators and efficient computation of fringe-field transfer maps

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hoffstaetter, G.H.

    1994-12-01

    Analyzing stability of particle motion in storage rings contributes to the general field of stability analysis in weakly nonlinear motion. A method which we call pseudo invariant estimation (PIE) is used to compute lower bounds on the survival time in circular accelerators. The pseudeo invariants needed for this approach are computed via nonlinear perturbative normal form theory and the required global maxima of the highly complicated multivariate functions could only be rigorously bound with an extension of interval arithmetic. The bounds on the survival times are large enough to the relevant; the same is true for the lower bounds on dynamical aperatures, which can be computed. The PIE method can lead to novel design criteria with the objective of maximizing the survival time. A major effort in the direction of rigourous predictions only makes sense if accurate models of accelerators are available. Fringe fields often have a significant influence on optical properties, but the computation of fringe-field maps by DA based integration is slower by several orders of magnitude than DA evaluation of the propagator for main-field maps. A novel computation of fringe-field effects called symplectic scaling (SYSCA) is introduced. It exploits the advantages of Lie transformations, generating functions, and scaling properties and is extremely accurate. The computation of fringe-field maps is typically made nearly two orders of magnitude faster. (orig.)

  9. Effects of microcosm scaling and food resources on growth and survival of larval Culex pipiens

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paradise Christopher J

    2001-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background We used a simple experimental design to test for the effects of microcosm scaling on the growth and survival of the mosquito, Culex pipiens. Microcosm and mesocosm studies are commonly used in ecology, and there is often an assumption that scaling doesn't affect experimental outcomes. The assumption is implicit in the design; choice of mesocosms may be arbitrary or based on convenience or cost. We tested the hypothesis that scale would influence larvae due to depth and surface area effects. Larvae were predicted to perform poorly in microcosms that were both deep and had small openings, due to buildup of waste products, less exchange with the environment, and increased competition. To determine if the choice of scale affected responses to other factors, we independently varied leaf litter quantity, whose effects on mosquitoes are well known. Results We found adverse effects of both a lower wall surface area and lower horizontal surface area, but microcosm scale interacted with resources such that C. pipiens is affected by habitat size only when food resources are scarce. At low resource levels mosquitoes were fewer, but larger, in microcosms with smaller horizontal surface area and greater depth than in microcosms with greater horizontal surface area and shallower depth. Microcosms with more vertical surface area/volume often produced larger mosquitoes; more food may have been available since mosquitoes browse on walls and other substrates for food. Conclusions The interaction between habitat size and food abundance is consequential to aquatic animals, and choice of scale in experiments may affect results. Varying surface area and depth causes the scale effect, with small horizontal surface area and large depth decreasing matter exchange with the surrounding environment. In addition, fewer resources leads to less leaf surface area, and the effects of varying surface area will be greater under conditions of limiting resources

  10. Speed scaling for weighted flow time

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bansal, N.; Pruhs, K.R.; Stein, C.

    2007-01-01

    In addition to the traditional goal of efficiently managing time and space, many computers now need to efficiently manage power usage. For example, Intel's SpeedStep and AMD's PowerNOW technologies allow the Windows XP operating system to dynamically change the speed of the processor to prolong

  11. Long-time data storage: relevant time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Elwenspoek, Michael Curt

    2011-01-01

    Dynamic processes relevant for long-time storage of information about human kind are discussed, ranging from biological and geological processes to the lifecycle of stars and the expansion of the universe. Major results are that life will end ultimately and the remaining time that the earth is

  12. On the Survival Time of a Duplex System: A Sokhotski-Plemelj Problem

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Edmond J. Vanderperre

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available We analyze the survival time of a renewable duplex system characterized by warm standby and subjected to a priority rule. In order to obtain the Laplace transform of the survival function, we employ a stochastic process endowed with time-dependent transition measures satisfying coupled partial differential equations. The solution procedure is based on the theory of sectionally holomorphic functions combined with the notion of dual transforms. Finally, we introduce a security interval related to a prescribed security level and a suitable risk criterion based on the survival function of the system. As an example, we consider the particular case of deterministic repair. A computer-plotted graph displays the survival function together with the security interval corresponding to a security level of 90%.

  13. Child mortality inequalities across Rwanda districts: a geoadditive continuous-time survival analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    François Niragire

    2017-05-01

    Full Text Available Child survival programmes are efficient when they target the most significant and area-specific factors. This study aimed to assess the key determinants and spatial variation of child mortality at the district level in Rwanda. Data from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey were analysed for 8817 live births that occurred during five years preceding the survey. Out of the children born, 433 had died before survey interviews were carried out. A full Bayesian geo-additive continuous-time hazard model enabled us to maximise data utilisation and hence improve the accuracy of our estimates. The results showed substantial district- level spatial variation in childhood mortality in Rwanda. District-specific spatial characteristics were particularly associated with higher death hazards in two districts: Musanze and Nyabihu. The model estimates showed that there were lower death rates among children from households of medium and high economic status compared to those from low-economic status households. Factors, such as four antenatal care visits, delivery at a health facility, prolonged breastfeeding and mothers younger than 31 years were associated with lower child death rates. Long preceding birth intervals were also associated with fewer hazards. For these reasons, programmes aimed at reducing child mortality gaps between districts in Rwanda should target maternal factors and take into consideration district-specific spatial characteristics. Further, child survival gains require strengthening or scaling-up of existing programmes pertaining to access to, and utilisation of maternal and child health care services as well as reduction of the household gap in the economic status.

  14. Child mortality inequalities across Rwanda districts: a geoadditive continuous-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niragire, François; Achia, Thomas N O; Lyambabaje, Alexandre; Ntaganira, Joseph

    2017-05-11

    Child survival programmes are efficient when they target the most significant and area-specific factors. This study aimed to assess the key determinants and spatial variation of child mortality at the district level in Rwanda. Data from the 2010 Rwanda Demographic and Health Survey were analysed for 8817 live births that occurred during five years preceding the survey. Out of the children born, 433 had died before survey interviews were carried out. A full Bayesian geo-additive continuous-time hazard model enabled us to maximise data utilisation and hence improve the accuracy of our estimates. The results showed substantial district- level spatial variation in childhood mortality in Rwanda. District-specific spatial characteristics were particularly associated with higher death hazards in two districts: Musanze and Nyabihu. The model estimates showed that there were lower death rates among children from households of medium and high economic status compared to those from low-economic status households. Factors, such as four antenatal care visits, delivery at a health facility, prolonged breastfeeding and mothers younger than 31 years were associated with lower child death rates. Long preceding birth intervals were also associated with fewer hazards. For these reasons, programmes aimed at reducing child mortality gaps between districts in Rwanda should target maternal factors and take into consideration district-specific spatial characteristics. Further, child survival gains require strengthening or scaling-up of existing programmes pertaining to access to, and utilisation of maternal and child health care services as well as reduction of the household gap in the economic status.

  15. Time scale of random sequential adsorption.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Erban, Radek; Chapman, S Jonathan

    2007-04-01

    A simple multiscale approach to the diffusion-driven adsorption from a solution to a solid surface is presented. The model combines two important features of the adsorption process: (i) The kinetics of the chemical reaction between adsorbing molecules and the surface and (ii) geometrical constraints on the surface made by molecules which are already adsorbed. The process (i) is modeled in a diffusion-driven context, i.e., the conditional probability of adsorbing a molecule provided that the molecule hits the surface is related to the macroscopic surface reaction rate. The geometrical constraint (ii) is modeled using random sequential adsorption (RSA), which is the sequential addition of molecules at random positions on a surface; one attempt to attach a molecule is made per one RSA simulation time step. By coupling RSA with the diffusion of molecules in the solution above the surface the RSA simulation time step is related to the real physical time. The method is illustrated on a model of chemisorption of reactive polymers to a virus surface.

  16. Nuclear disassembly time scales using space time correlations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Durand, D.; Colin, J.; Lecolley, J.F.; Meslin, C.; Aboufirassi, M.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R. [Caen Univ., 14 (France). Lab. de Physique Corpusculaire; Bilwes, B.; Cosmo, F. [Strasbourg-1 Univ., 67 (France); Galin, J. [Grand Accelerateur National d`Ions Lourds (GANIL), 14 - Caen (France); and others

    1996-09-01

    The lifetime, {tau}, with respect to multifragmentation of highly excited nuclei is deduced from the analysis of strongly damped Pb+Au collisions at 29 MeV/u. The method is based on the study of space-time correlations induced by `proximity` effects between fragments emitted by the two primary products of the reaction and gives the time between the re-separation of the two primary products and the subsequent multifragment decay of one partner. (author). 2 refs.

  17. Nuclear disassembly time scales using space time correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand, D.; Colin, J.; Lecolley, J.F.; Meslin, C.; Aboufirassi, M.; Bougault, R.; Brou, R.; Galin, J.; and others.

    1996-01-01

    The lifetime, τ, with respect to multifragmentation of highly excited nuclei is deduced from the analysis of strongly damped Pb+Au collisions at 29 MeV/u. The method is based on the study of space-time correlations induced by 'proximity' effects between fragments emitted by the two primary products of the reaction and gives the time between the re-separation of the two primary products and the subsequent multifragment decay of one partner. (author)

  18. Relaxation Processes and Time Scale Transformation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1982-03-01

    the response function may be immediately recognized as being 14 of the Kubo - Green type in the classical regime. Given this general framework, it is now...b as a function of temperature is 24 equivalent to the Vogel-Beuche-Fulcher empirical law for viscosity or the Williams-Landel-Ferry empirical law...relaxation times. With the weighted sum in the form of an integral , one can write exp(-(t/T)b ] = f dT’g(r’) exp[-(t/T’)], O

  19. Median Survival Time of Endometrial Cancer Patients with Lymphovascular Invasion at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Asyikeen, Wan Adnan Wan Nor; Siti-Azrin, Ab Hamid; Jalil, Nur Asyilla Che; Zin, Anani Aila Mat; Othman, Nor Hayati

    2016-11-01

    Endometrial cancer is the most common gynaecologic malignancy among females worldwide. The purpose of this study was to determine the median survival time of endometrial cancer patients at the Hospital Universiti Sains Malaysia (USM). A list of 121 endometrial cancer cases registered at Hospital USM between 2000 until 2011 was retrospectively reviewed. The survival time of the endometrial cancer patients was estimated by Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Log-rank tests were performed to compare the survival of the patients based on socio-demographics and clinical presentation. Only 108 patients, 87.0%, were included who were of Malay ethnicity. Previous history included menopause in 67.6% of patients and diabetes mellitus in 39.8% of patients; additionally, 63.4% of patients were nulliparous. Tumour staging was as follows: 24.5% stage I, 10.8% stage II, 26.5% stage III and 38.2% stage IV. The overall median survival time of the endometrial cancer patients was 70.20 months (95% confidence interval (CI): 51.79, 88.61). The significant factors were age, the presence of lymphovascular invasion and treatment received. The overall survival of endometrial cancer was low. A prospective study needs to be carried out to discover more effective and accurate tests for the early detection of endometrial cancer.

  20. Median survival time of patients after transcatheter chemo-embolization for hepatocellular carcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haider, Z.; Haq, T.; Munir, K.; Usman, M.U.; Azeemuddin, M.

    2006-01-01

    Objective: To determine the effect on survival after trans arterial chemo embolization (TACE) in patients with unresectable hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). Design: Longitudinal cohort study. Place and Duration of Study: Radiology Department, The Aga Khan University Hospital, Stadium Road, Karachi, from December 1997 to September 2005. Patients and Methods: Patients undergoing TACE procedure for HCC were prospectively followed. Forty three patients were enrolled from December 1997 to March 2003 in the study and subjected to chemo embolization therapy. Eight out of 43 patients were excluded from the study, who lost to follow-up. All the patients were followed till their death. Median and mean survival were calculated. Results: The median survival of these 35 patients was 410 days (13.6 months), with 95% confidence interval (236 days lower bound and 536 days upper bound). Mean survival time was 603 days (20.1 months) with 95% confidence interval (394 days lower bound and 812 days upper bound). There was significant difference in mean survival time (in days) by Child's Pugh class (X2 = 12.384; df=2, p-value=0.002). Conclusion: The study showed that TACE is an effective palliative treatment. TACE increases the median survival time. (author)

  1. Long-Time Data Storage: Relevant Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Miko C. Elwenspoek

    2011-02-01

    Full Text Available Dynamic processes relevant for long-time storage of information about human kind are discussed, ranging from biological and geological processes to the lifecycle of stars and the expansion of the universe. Major results are that life will end ultimately and the remaining time that the earth is habitable for complex life is about half a billion years. A system retrieved within the next million years will be read by beings very closely related to Homo sapiens. During this time the surface of the earth will change making it risky to place a small number of large memory systems on earth; the option to place it on the moon might be more favorable. For much longer timescales both options do not seem feasible because of geological processes on the earth and the flux of small meteorites to the moon.

  2. Helicopter crashes into water: warning time, final position, and other factors affecting survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brooks, Christopher J; MacDonald, Conor V; Baker, Susan P; Shanahan, Dennis F; Haaland, Wren L

    2014-04-01

    According to 40 yr of data, the fatality rate for a helicopter crash into water is approximately 25%. Does warning time and the final position of the helicopter in the water influence the survival rate? The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) database was queried to identify helicopter crashes into water between 1981 and 2011 in the Gulf of Mexico and Hawaii. Fatality rate, amount of warning time prior to the crash, and final position of the helicopter were identified. There were 133 helicopters that crashed into water with 456 crew and passengers. Of these, 119 occupants (26%) did not survive; of those who did survive, 38% were injured. Twelve died after making a successful escape from the helicopter. Crashes with 1 min. However, more than half of fatalities (57%) came from crashes for which the warning time could not be determined. Lack of warning time and how to survive in the water after the crash should be a topic for study in all marine survival/aircraft ditching courses. Investigators should be trained to provide estimates of warning time when investigating helicopter crashes into water.

  3. The time dependent association of adrenaline administration and survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ewy, Gordon A; Bobrow, Bentley J; Chikani, Vatsal; Sanders, Arthur B; Otto, Charles W; Spaite, Daniel W; Kern, Karl B

    2015-11-01

    Recommended for decades, the therapeutic value of adrenaline (epinephrine) in the resuscitation of patients with out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) is controversial. To investigate the possible time-dependent outcomes associated with adrenaline administration by Emergency Medical Services personnel (EMS). A retrospective analysis of prospectively collected data from a near statewide cardiac resuscitation database between 1 January 2005 and 30 November 2013. Multivariable logistic regression was used to analyze the effect of the time interval between EMS dispatch and the initial dose of adrenaline on survival. The primary endpoints were survival to hospital discharge and favourable neurologic outcome. Data from 3469 patients with witnessed OHCA were analyzed. Their mean age was 66.3 years and 69% were male. An initially shockable rhythm was present in 41.8% of patients. Based on a multivariable logistic regression model with initial adrenaline administration time interval (AATI) from EMS dispatch as the covariate, survival was greatest when adrenaline was administered very early but decreased rapidly with increasing (AATI); odds ratio 0.94 (95% Confidence Interval (CI) 0.92-0.97). The AATI had no significant effect on good neurological outcome (OR=0.96, 95% CI=0.90-1.02). In patients with OHCA, survival to hospital discharge was greater in those treated early with adrenaline by EMS especially in the subset of patients with a shockable rhythm. However survival rapidly decreased with increasing adrenaline administration time intervals (AATI). Copyright © 2015 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ireland Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  4. Formation of heavy compound nuclei, their survival and correlation with longtime-scale fission

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Karamyan, S.A.; Yakushev, A.B.

    2006-01-01

    Fusion of two massive nuclei with formation of super-heavy compound nucleus (CN) is driven by the potential energy gradient, as follows from the analysis of nuclear reaction cross-sections. The conservative energy of the system is deduced in simple approximation using regularized nuclear mass and interaction barrier values. Different reactions for the synthesis of Z c 110-118 nuclei are compared and the favourable conditions are found for fusion of the stable (W-Pt) isotopes with radioactive fission fragment projectiles, like 94 Kr or 100 Sr. Thus, the cold fusion method can be extended for a synthesis of elements with Z > 113. Survival of the evaporation residue is defined by the neutron-to-fission probability ratio and by the successful emission of gammas at the final step of the reaction. Numerical estimates are presented. Fixation of evaporation residue products must correlate with longtime-scale fission and available experimental results are discussed

  5. Daily nest survival rates of Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus): assessing local- and landscape-scale drivers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stanley, Thomas R.; Aldridge, Cameron L.; Joanne Saher,; Theresa Childers,

    2015-01-01

    The Gunnison Sage-Grouse (Centrocercus minimus) is a species of conservation concern and is a candidate for listing under the U.S. Endangered Species Act because of substantial declines in populations from historic levels. It is thought that loss, fragmentation, and deterioration of sagebrush (Artemisia spp.) habitat have contributed to the decline and isolation of this species into seven geographically distinct subpopulations. Nest survival is known to be a primary driver of demography of Greater Sage-Grouse (C. urophasianus), but no unbiased estimates of daily nest survival rates (hereafter nest survival) exist for Gunnison Sage-Grouse or published studies identifying factors that influence nest survival. We estimated nest survival of Gunnison Sage-Grouse for the western portion of Colorado's Gunnison Basin subpopulation, and assessed the effects and relative importance of local- and landscape-scale habitat characteristics on nest survival. Our top performing model was one that allowed variation in nest survival among areas, suggesting a larger landscape-area effect. Overall nest success during a 38-day nesting period (egg-laying plus incubation) was 50% (daily survival rate; SE  =  0.982 [0.003]), which is higher than previous estimates for Gunnison Sage-Grouse and generally higher than published for the closely related Greater Sage-Grouse. We did not find strong evidence that local-scale habitat variables were better predictors of nest survival than landscape-scale predictors, nor did we find strong evidence that any of the habitat variables we measured were good predictors of nest survival. Nest success of Gunnison Sage-Grouse in the western portion of the Gunnison Basin was higher than previously believed.

  6. Bounds of Certain Dynamic Inequalities on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Deepak B. Pachpatte

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we study explicit bounds of certain dynamic integral inequalities on time scales. These estimates give the bounds on unknown functions which can be used in studying the qualitative aspects of certain dynamic equations. Using these inequalities we prove the uniqueness of some partial integro-differential equations on time scales.

  7. Temperature dependence of fluctuation time scales in spin glasses

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Kenning, Gregory G.; Bowen, J.; Sibani, Paolo

    2010-01-01

    Using a series of fast cooling protocols we have probed aging effects in the spin glass state as a function of temperature. Analyzing the logarithmic decay found at very long time scales within a simple phenomenological barrier model, leads to the extraction of the fluctuation time scale of the s...

  8. The survival time of chocolates on hospital wards: covert observational study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gajendragadkar, Parag R; Moualed, Daniel J; Nicolson, Phillip L R; Adjei, Felicia D; Cakebread, Holly E; Duehmke, Rudolf M; Martin, Claire A

    2013-12-14

    To quantify the consumption of chocolates in a hospital ward environment. Multicentre, prospective, covert observational study. Four wards at three hospitals (where the authors worked) within the United Kingdom. Boxes of Quality Street (Nestlé) and Roses (Cadbury) on the ward and anyone eating these chocolates. Observers covertly placed two 350 g boxes of Quality Street and Roses chocolates on each ward (eight boxes were used in the study containing a total of 258 individual chocolates). These boxes were kept under continuous covert surveillance, with the time recorded when each chocolate was eaten. Median survival time of a chocolate. 191 out of 258 (74%) chocolates were observed being eaten. The mean total observation period was 254 minutes (95% confidence interval 179 to 329). The median survival time of a chocolate was 51 minutes (39 to 63). The model of chocolate consumption was non-linear, with an initial rapid rate of consumption that slowed with time. An exponential decay model best fitted these findings (model R(2)=0.844, P<0.001), with a survival half life (time taken for 50% of the chocolates to be eaten) of 99 minutes. The mean time taken to open a box of chocolates from first appearance on the ward was 12 minutes (95% confidence interval 0 to 24). Quality Street chocolates survived longer than Roses chocolates (hazard ratio for survival of Roses v Quality Street 0.70, 95% confidence interval 0.53 to 0.93, P=0.014). The highest percentages of chocolates were consumed by healthcare assistants (28%) and nurses (28%), followed by doctors (15%). From our observational study, chocolate survival in a hospital ward was relatively short, and was modelled well by an exponential decay model. Roses chocolates were preferentially consumed to Quality Street chocolates in a ward setting. Chocolates were consumed primarily by healthcare assistants and nurses, followed by doctors. Further practical studies are needed.

  9. Time scales of supercooled water and implications for reversible polyamorphism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limmer, David T.; Chandler, David

    2015-09-01

    Deeply supercooled water exhibits complex dynamics with large density fluctuations, ice coarsening and characteristic time scales extending from picoseconds to milliseconds. Here, we discuss implications of these time scales as they pertain to two-phase coexistence and to molecular simulations of supercooled water. Specifically, we argue that it is possible to discount liquid-liquid criticality because the time scales imply that correlation lengths for such behaviour would be bounded by no more than a few nanometres. Similarly, it is possible to discount two-liquid coexistence because the time scales imply a bounded interfacial free energy that cannot grow in proportion to a macroscopic surface area. From time scales alone, therefore, we see that coexisting domains of differing density in supercooled water can be no more than nanoscale transient fluctuations.

  10. Time scales of tunneling decay of a localized state

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ban, Yue; Muga, J. G.; Sherman, E. Ya.; Buettiker, M.

    2010-01-01

    Motivated by recent time-domain experiments on ultrafast atom ionization, we analyze the transients and time scales that characterize, aside from the relatively long lifetime, the decay of a localized state by tunneling. While the tunneling starts immediately, some time is required for the outgoing flux to develop. This short-term behavior depends strongly on the initial state. For the initial state, tightly localized so that the initial transients are dominated by over-the-barrier motion, the time scale for flux propagation through the barrier is close to the Buettiker-Landauer traversal time. Then a quasistationary, slow-decay process follows, which sets ideal conditions for observing diffraction in time at longer times and distances. To define operationally a tunneling time at the barrier edge, we extrapolate backward the propagation of the wave packet that escaped from the potential. This extrapolated time is considerably longer than the time scale of the flux and density buildup at the barrier edge.

  11. Examining the Influence of Campus Climate on Students' Time to Degree: A Multilevel Discrete-Time Survival Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Ji; Castellanos, Michelle

    2013-01-01

    Utilizing longitudinal data of 3477 students from 28 institutions, we examine the effects of structural diversity and quality of interracial relation on students' persistence towards graduation within six years. We utilize multilevel discrete-time survival analysis to account for the longitudinal persistence patterns as well as the nested…

  12. Childhood cancer survival in Switzerland (1976-2013): Time-trends and predictors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schindler, Matthias; Belle, Fabiën N; Grotzer, Michael A; von der Weid, Nicolas X; Kuehni, Claudia E

    2017-01-01

    Population-based studies on childhood cancer survival are key to monitor progress against cancer and to detect potential differences between regions and other subgroups in the population. We investigated time trends and factors associated with childhood cancer survival on a national level in Switzerland, from 1976 to 2013. We extracted data from the population-based Swiss Childhood Cancer Registry of 5,776 children (age 0-14 years) diagnosed with cancer from 1985 to 2014 in Switzerland. We calculated age-adjusted 5-year survival, defined the annual reduction in risk of death (ARR), and explored associations of survival with clinical and demographic factors. Overall, 5-year survival improved significantly, from 64% in 1976-1983 to 88% in 2004-2013. ARR over the whole period was 4% for all diagnostic groups, greatest for Hodgkin lymphomas (8%), ependymomas (6%), Burkitt's lymphomas (6%) and germ cell tumours (6%). Children treated in hospitals without specialised paediatric cancer centre for leukaemia (HR 12.9), lymphoma (HR 5.0) and neuroblastoma (HR 3.7) were at higher risk of death. In French-speaking Switzerland, risk of death was lower for lymphoma (HR 0.6), CNS tumours (HR 0.7) and neuroblastoma (HR 0.5). Children with migration background had a higher risk of death from all tumours except bone tumours. Childhood cancer survival significantly improved from 1976 to 2013, but there is room for further improvement. Survival rates varied by type of clinical treatment, language region and nationality. All paediatric cancer patients should be referred to a specialised paediatric cancer centre. Further research is needed to intervene and completely eliminate inequalities in survival. © 2016 UICC.

  13. Measurement of Survival Time in Brachionus Rotifers: Synchronization of Maternal Conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kaneko, Gen; Yoshinaga, Tatsuki; Gribble, Kristin E; Welch, David M; Ushio, Hideki

    2016-07-22

    Rotifers are microscopic cosmopolitan zooplankton used as models in ecotoxicological and aging studies due to their several advantages such as short lifespan, ease of culture, and parthenogenesis that enables clonal culture. However, caution is required when measuring their survival time as it is affected by maternal age and maternal feeding conditions. Here we provide a protocol for powerful and reproducible measurement of the survival time in Brachionus rotifers following a careful synchronization of culture conditions over several generations. Empirically, poor synchronization results in early mortality and a gradual decrease in survival rate, thus resulting in weak statistical power. Indeed, under such conditions, calorie restriction (CR) failed to significantly extend the lifespan of B. plicatilis although CR-induced longevity has been demonstrated with well-synchronized rotifer samples in past and present studies. This protocol is probably useful for other invertebrate models, including the fruitfly Drosophila melanogaster and the nematode Caenorhabditis elegans, because maternal age effects have also been reported in these species.

  14. An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

    2017-09-01

    An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

  15. Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

    2017-12-01

    Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  16. Soil moisture memory at sub-monthly time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mccoll, K. A.; Entekhabi, D.

    2017-12-01

    For soil moisture-climate feedbacks to occur, the soil moisture storage must have `memory' of past atmospheric anomalies. Quantifying soil moisture memory is, therefore, essential for mapping and characterizing land-atmosphere interactions globally. Most previous studies estimate soil moisture memory using metrics based on the autocorrelation function of the soil moisture time series (e.g., the e-folding autocorrelation time scale). This approach was first justified by Delworth and Manabe (1988) on the assumption that monthly soil moisture time series can be modelled as red noise. While this is a reasonable model for monthly soil moisture averages, at sub-monthly scales, the model is insufficient due to the highly non-Gaussian behavior of the precipitation forcing. Recent studies have shown that significant soil moisture-climate feedbacks appear to occur at sub-monthly time scales. Therefore, alternative metrics are required for defining and estimating soil moisture memory at these shorter time scales. In this study, we introduce metrics, based on the positive and negative increments of the soil moisture time series, that can be used to estimate soil moisture memory at sub-monthly time scales. The positive increments metric corresponds to a rapid drainage time scale. The negative increments metric represents a slower drying time scale that is most relevant to the study of land-atmosphere interactions. We show that autocorrelation-based metrics mix the two time scales, confounding physical interpretation. The new metrics are used to estimate soil moisture memory at sub-monthly scales from in-situ and satellite observations of soil moisture. Reference: Delworth, Thomas L., and Syukuro Manabe. "The Influence of Potential Evaporation on the Variabilities of Simulated Soil Wetness and Climate." Journal of Climate 1, no. 5 (May 1, 1988): 523-47. doi:10.1175/1520-0442(1988)0012.0.CO;2.

  17. Factors associated with supermarket and convenience store closure: a discrete time spatial survival modelling approach.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Warren, Joshua L; Gordon-Larsen, Penny

    2018-06-01

    While there is a literature on the distribution of food stores across geographic and social space, much of this research uses cross-sectional data. Analyses attempting to understand whether the availability of stores across neighborhoods is associated with diet and/or health outcomes are limited by a lack of understanding of factors that shape the emergence of new stores and the closure of others. We used quarterly data on supermarket and convenience store locations spanning seven years (2006-2012) and tract-level census data in four US cities: Birmingham, Alabama; Chicago, Illinois; Minneapolis, Minnesota; San Francisco, California. A spatial discrete-time survival model was used to identify factors associated with an earlier and/or later closure time of a store. Sales volume was typically the strongest indicator of store survival. We identified heterogeneity in the association between tract-level poverty and racial composition with respect to store survival. Stores in high poverty, non-White tracts were often at a disadvantage in terms of survival length. The observed patterns of store survival varied by some of the same neighborhood sociodemographic factors associated with lifestyle and health outcomes, which could lead to confusion in interpretation in studies of the estimated effects of introduction of food stores into neighborhoods on health.

  18. Time to treatment as a quality metric in lung cancer: Staging studies, time to treatment, and patient survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gomez, Daniel R.; Liao, Kai-Ping; Swisher, Stephen G.; Blumenschein, George R.; Erasmus, Jeremy J.; Buchholz, Thomas A.; Giordano, Sharon H.; Smith, Benjamin D.

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Prompt staging and treatment are crucial for non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC). We determined if predictors of treatment delay after diagnosis were associated with prognosis. Materials and methods: Medicare claims from 28,732 patients diagnosed with NSCLC in 2004–2007 were used to establish the diagnosis-to-treatment interval (ideally ⩽35 days) and identify staging studies during that interval. Factors associated with delay were identified with multivariate logistic regression, and associations between delay and survival by stage were tested with Cox proportional hazard regression. Results: Median diagnosis-to-treatment interval was 27 days. Receipt of PET was associated with delays (57.4% of patients with PET delayed [n = 6646/11,583] versus 22.8% of those without [n = 3908/17,149]; adjusted OR = 4.48, 95% CI 4.23–4.74, p < 0.001). Median diagnosis-to-PET interval was 15 days; PET-to-clinic, 5 days; and clinic-to-treatment, 12 days. Diagnosis-to-treatment intervals <35 days were associated with improved survival for patients with localized disease and those with distant disease surviving ⩾1 year but not for patients with distant disease surviving <1 year. Conclusion: Delays between diagnosing and treating NSCLC are common and associated with use of PET for staging. Reducing time to treatment may improve survival for patients with manageable disease at diagnosis

  19. [Survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing, 1995-2015].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y; Wang, J; He, S F; Chen, J; Lu, H Y

    2017-11-10

    Objective: To analyze the survival time of HIV/AIDS cases and related factors in Beijing from 1995 to 2015. Methods: A retrospective cohort study was conducted to analyze the data of 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases. The data were collected from Chinese HIV/AIDS Comprehensive Information Management System. Life table method was applied to calculate the survival proportion, and Cox proportion hazard regression model were used to identify the factors related with survival time. Results: Among 12 874 HIV/AIDS cases, 303 (2.4%) died of AIDS related diseases; 9 346 (72.6%) received antiretroviral therapy. The average survival time was 226.5 months (95 %CI : 223.0-230.1), and the survival rates of 1, 5, 10, and 15 years were 98.2%, 96.4%, 93.2%, and 91.9% respectively. Multivariate Cox proportion hazard regression model showed that AIDS phase ( HR =1.439, 95 %CI : 1.041-1.989), heterosexual transmission ( HR =1.646, 95 %CI : 1.184-2.289), being married ( HR =2.186, 95 %CI : 1.510-3.164); older age (≥60 years) at diagnosis ( HR =6.608, 95 %CI : 3.546-12.316); lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at diagnosis (<350 cells/μl) ( HR =8.711, 95 %CI : 5.757-13.181); receiving no antiretroviral therapy (ART) ( HR =18.223, 95 %CI : 13.317-24.937) were the high risk factors influencing the survival of AIDS patients compared with HIV phase, homosexual transmission, being unmarried, younger age (≤30 years), higher CD(4)(+)T cell count (≥350 cell/μl) and receiving ART. Conclusion: The average survival time of HIV/AIDS cases was 226.5 months after diagnoses. Receiving ART, higher CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, HIV phase, younger age, being unmarried and the homosexual transmission were related to the longer survival time of HIV/AIDS cases. Receiving no ART, the lower CD(4)(+)T cell counts at the first test, AIDS phase, older age, being married and heterosexual transmission indicated higher risk of death due to AIDS.

  20. Increasing survival time decreases the cost-effectiveness of using "test & treat'' to eliminate HIV epidemics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Bradley G; Coburn, Brian J; Blower, Sally

    2013-01-01

    Treating HIV-infected individuals reduces their viral load, consequently increasing their survival time and decreasing their infectivity. It has been proposed that universal testing and treatment (i.e., universal "test & treat'') could lead to HIV elimination and would be extremely cost-effective. It is now being debated whether to use a universal "test & treat'' approach in the "real-world'' as a prevention strategy to control HIV epidemics. However current modeling predictions of the impact, and cost-effectiveness, of universal `"est & treat'' strategies are based on an unrealistically short survival time for treated individuals. Here we use mathematical modeling and a longer, more realistic, survival time. We model the potential impact of a universal "test & treat'' strategy in South Africa. Our results show that increasing the length of the survival time on treatment, although beneficial to individuals, reduces the probability of eliminating HIV and decreases the cost-effectiveness of using universal "test & treat'' strategies. Therefore our results show that individual-level benefits and public health benefits will conflict when using "test &treat'' strategies to reduce HIV transmission.

  1. Palliative Sedation in Advanced Cancer Patients: Does it Shorten Survival Time? - A Systematic Review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barathi, B; Chandra, Prabha S

    2013-01-01

    Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST) was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  2. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Lois A; MacKinnon, David P; DeRubeis, Robert J; Baraldi, Amanda N

    2016-01-01

    Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome-underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  3. Effect of bifidobacteria implantation on the survival time of whole-body irradiated mice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yokokura, Teruo; Onoue, Masaharu; Mutai, Masahiko

    1980-01-01

    Letahl dose (2 KR) of gamma-ray was irradiated on the whole bodies of mice. Survival time after irradiation was significantly longer in mice with administration of both Bifidobacterium breve YIT 4008 and transgalactosyl oligosaccharide than in mice with administration of either of the two or nothing. (Tsunoda, M.)

  4. Palliative sedation in advanced cancer patients: Does it shorten survival time? - A systematic review

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B Barathi

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Patients with advanced cancer often suffer from multiple refractory symptoms in the terminal phase of their life. Palliative sedation is one of the few ways to relieve this refractory suffering. Objectives: This systematic review investigated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time in terminally ill cancer patients. Materials and Methods: Six electronic databases were searched for both prospective and retrospective studies which evaluated the effect of palliative sedation on survival time. Only those studies which had a comparison group that did not receive palliative sedation were selected for the review. Abstracts of all retrieved studies were screened to include the most relevant studies and only studies which met inclusion criteria were selected. References of all retrieved studies were also screened for relevant studies. Selected studies were assessed for quality and data extraction was done using the structured data extraction form. Results: Eleven studies including four prospective and seven retrospective studies were identified. Mean survival time (MST was measured as the time from last admission until death. A careful analysis of the results of all the 11 studies indicated that MST of sedated and non-sedated group was not statistically different in any of the studies. Conclusion: This systematic review supports the fact that palliative sedation does not shorten survival in terminally ill cancer patients. However, this conclusion needs to be taken with consideration of the methodology, study design, and the population studied of the included studies in this review.

  5. It's Deja Vu All over Again: Using Multiple-Spell Discrete-Time Survival Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willett, John B.; Singer, Judith D.

    1995-01-01

    The multiple-spell discrete-time survival analysis method is introduced and illustrated using longitudinal data on exit from and reentry into the teaching profession. The method is applicable to many educational problems involving the sequential occurrence of disparate events or episodes. (SLD)

  6. Nutrition management methods effective in increasing weight, survival time and functional status in ALS patients: a systematic review.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kellogg, Jaylin; Bottman, Lindsey; Arra, Erin J; Selkirk, Stephen M; Kozlowski, Frances

    2018-02-01

    Poor prognosis and decreased survival time correlate with the nutritional status of patients with amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS). Various studies were reviewed which assessed weight, body mass index (BMI), survival time and ALS functional rating scale revised (ALSFRS-R) in order to determine the best nutrition management methods for this patient population. A systematic review was conducted using CINAHL, Medline, and PubMed, and various search terms in order to determine the most recent clinical trials and observational studies that have been conducted concerning nutrition and ALS. Four articles met criteria to be included in the review. Data were extracted from these articles and were inputted into the Data Extraction Tool (DET) provided by the Academy of Nutrition and Dietetics (AND). Results showed that nutrition supplementation does promote weight stabilisation or weight gain in individuals with ALS. Given the low risk and low cost associated with intervention, early and aggressive nutrition intervention is recommended. This systematic review shows that there is a lack of high quality evidence regarding the efficacy of any dietary interventions for promoting survival in ALS or slowing disease progression; therefore more research is necessary related to effects of nutrition interventions.

  7. Liquidity spillover in international stock markets through distinct time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Righi, Marcelo Brutti; Vieira, Kelmara Mendes

    2014-01-01

    This paper identifies liquidity spillovers through different time scales based on a wavelet multiscaling method. We decompose daily data from U.S., British, Brazilian and Hong Kong stock markets indices in order to calculate the scale correlation between their illiquidities. The sample is divided in order to consider non-crisis, sub-prime crisis and Eurozone crisis. We find that there are changes in correlations of distinct scales and different periods. Association in finest scales is smaller than in coarse scales. There is a rise on associations in periods of crisis. In frequencies, there is predominance for significant distinctions involving the coarsest scale, while for crises periods there is predominance for distinctions on the finest scale.

  8. Effect of antibiotic decontamination of the GI tract on survival time after neutron and gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Geraci, J.P.; Jackson, K.L.; Mariano, M.S.

    1984-01-01

    Antibiotic decontaminated and conventional rats were whole-body irradiated with 8 MeV neutrons (1.5 to 13 Gy) or 137 Cs gamma radiation (9 to 20 Gy). The animals were checked for survival at four hour intervals from the second to the seventh day postirradiation and at eight hour intervals on other days. Decontamination of the GI tract increased median survival time 1 to 5 days in this range of dose dependency, whereas the effect of decontamination was negligible for doses that produced mostly intestinal death. These results suggest that sepsis and endotoxin produced by bacteria from the intestinal tract play little role in acute intestinal radiation death

  9. Causal inference for long-term survival in randomised trials with treatment switching: Should re-censoring be applied when estimating counterfactual survival times?

    OpenAIRE

    Latimer, N.R.; White, I.R.; Abrams, K.R.; Sieburt, U.

    2017-01-01

    Treatment switching often has a crucial impact on estimates of effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of new oncology treatments. Rank preserving structural failure time models (RPSFTM) and two-stage estimation (TSE) methods estimate ‘counterfactual’ (i.e. had there been no switching) survival times and incorporate re-censoring to guard against informative censoring in the counterfactual dataset. However, re-censoring causes a loss of longer term survival information which is problematic when e...

  10. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Garzon, Benjamin; Emblem, Kyrre E.; Mouridsen, Kim; Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K.; Bjoernerud, Atle; Haaberg, Asta K.; Kvinnsland, Yngve

    2011-01-01

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  11. Multiparametric analysis of magnetic resonance images for glioma grading and patient survival time prediction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Garzon, Benjamin (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway)), email: benjamin.garzon@ntnu.no; Emblem, Kyrre E. (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway); Dept. of Radiology, MGH-HST AA Martinos Center for Biomedical Imaging, Massachusetts General Hospital and Harvard Medical School, Boston (United States)); Mouridsen, Kim (Center of Functionally Integrative Neuroscience, Aarhus Univ., Aarhus (Denmark)); Nedregaard, Baard; Due-Toennessen, Paulina; Nome, Terje; Hald, John K. (Dept. of Radiology and Nuclear Medicine, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Bjoernerud, Atle (The Interventional Center, Rikshospitalet, Oslo Univ. Hospital, Oslo (Norway)); Haaberg, Asta K. (Dept. of Circulation and Medical Imaging, NTNU, Trondheim (Norway); Dept. of Medical Imaging, St Olav' s Hospital, Trondheim (Norway)); Kvinnsland, Yngve (NordicImagingLab, Bergen (Norway))

    2011-11-15

    Background. A systematic comparison of magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) options for glioma diagnosis is lacking. Purpose. To investigate multiple MR-derived image features with respect to diagnostic accuracy in tumor grading and survival prediction in glioma patients. Material and Methods. T1 pre- and post-contrast, T2 and dynamic susceptibility contrast scans of 74 glioma patients with histologically confirmed grade were acquired. For each patient, a set of statistical features was obtained from the parametric maps derived from the original images, in a region-of-interest encompassing the tumor volume. A forward stepwise selection procedure was used to find the best combinations of features for grade prediction with a cross-validated logistic model and survival time prediction with a cox proportional-hazards regression. Results. Presence/absence of enhancement paired with kurtosis of the FM (first moment of the first-pass curve) was the feature combination that best predicted tumor grade (grade II vs. grade III-IV; median AUC 0.96), with the main contribution being due to the first of the features. A lower predictive value (median AUC = 0.82) was obtained when grade IV tumors were excluded. Presence/absence of enhancement alone was the best predictor for survival time, and the regression was significant (P < 0.0001). Conclusion. Presence/absence of enhancement, reflecting transendothelial leakage, was the feature with highest predictive value for grade and survival time in glioma patients

  12. 33 CFR 150.503 - What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls?

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-07-01

    ... 33 Navigation and Navigable Waters 2 2010-07-01 2010-07-01 false What are the time interval requirements for maintenance on survival craft falls? 150.503 Section 150.503 Navigation and Navigable Waters... maintenance on survival craft falls? (a) Each fall used in a launching device for survival craft or rescue...

  13. AFSC/ABL: Ugashik sockeye salmon scale time series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A time series of scale samples (1956 b?? 2002) collected from adult sockeye salmon returning to Ugashik River were retrieved from the Alaska Department of Fish and...

  14. AFSC/ABL: Naknek sockeye salmon scale time series

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — A time series of scale samples (1956 2002) collected from adult sockeye salmon returning to Naknek River were retrieved from the Alaska Department of Fish and Game....

  15. An extended Halanay inequality of integral type on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Boqun Ou

    2015-07-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we obtain a Halanay-type inequality of integral type on time scales which improves and extends some earlier results for both the continuous and discrete cases. Several illustrative examples are also given.

  16. Multiple dynamical time-scales in networks with hierarchically

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Modular networks; hierarchical organization; synchronization. ... we show that such a topological structure gives rise to characteristic time-scale separation ... This suggests a possible functional role of such mesoscopic organization principle in ...

  17. Large Deviations for Two-Time-Scale Diffusions, with Delays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kushner, Harold J.

    2010-01-01

    We consider the problem of large deviations for a two-time-scale reflected diffusion process, possibly with delays in the dynamical terms. The Dupuis-Ellis weak convergence approach is used. It is perhaps the most intuitive and simplest for the problems of concern. The results have applications to the problem of approximating optimal controls for two-time-scale systems via use of the averaged equation.

  18. Some New Inequalities of Opial's Type on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Samir H. Saker

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We will prove some new dynamic inequalities of Opial's type on time scales. The results not only extend some results in the literature but also improve some of them. Some continuous and discrete inequalities are derived from the main results as special cases. The results can be applied on the study of distribution of generalized zeros of half-linear dynamic equations on time scales.

  19. Scale-dependent intrinsic entropies of complex time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yeh, Jia-Rong; Peng, Chung-Kang; Huang, Norden E

    2016-04-13

    Multi-scale entropy (MSE) was developed as a measure of complexity for complex time series, and it has been applied widely in recent years. The MSE algorithm is based on the assumption that biological systems possess the ability to adapt and function in an ever-changing environment, and these systems need to operate across multiple temporal and spatial scales, such that their complexity is also multi-scale and hierarchical. Here, we present a systematic approach to apply the empirical mode decomposition algorithm, which can detrend time series on various time scales, prior to analysing a signal's complexity by measuring the irregularity of its dynamics on multiple time scales. Simulated time series of fractal Gaussian noise and human heartbeat time series were used to study the performance of this new approach. We show that our method can successfully quantify the fractal properties of the simulated time series and can accurately distinguish modulations in human heartbeat time series in health and disease. © 2016 The Author(s).

  20. Application of accelerated failure time models for breast cancer patients' survival in Kurdistan Province of Iran.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karimi, Asrin; Delpisheh, Ali; Sayehmiri, Kourosh

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer and the second common cause of cancer-induced mortalities in Iranian women. There has been a rapid development in hazard models and survival analysis in the last decade. The aim of this study was to evaluate the prognostic factors of overall survival (OS) in breast cancer patients using accelerated failure time models (AFT). This was a retrospective-analytic cohort study. About 313 women with a pathologically proven diagnosis of breast cancer who had been treated during a 7-year period (since January 2006 until March 2014) in Sanandaj City, Kurdistan Province of Iran were recruited. Performance among AFT was assessed using the goodness of fit methods. Discrimination among the exponential, Weibull, generalized gamma, log-logistic, and log-normal distributions was done using Akaik information criteria and maximum likelihood. The 5 years OS was 75% (95% CI = 74.57-75.43). The main results in terms of survival were found for the different categories of the clinical stage covariate, tumor metastasis, and relapse of cancer. Survival time in breast cancer patients without tumor metastasis and relapse were 4, 2-fold longer than other patients with metastasis and relapse, respectively. One of the most important undermining prognostic factors in breast cancer is metastasis; hence, knowledge of the mechanisms of metastasis is necessary to prevent it so occurrence and treatment of metastatic breast cancer and ultimately extend the lifetime of patients.

  1. Russian national time scale long-term stability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alshina, A. P.; Gaigerov, B. A.; Koshelyaevsky, N. B.; Pushkin, S. B.

    1994-05-01

    The Institute of Metrology for Time and Space NPO 'VNIIFTRI' generates the National Time Scale (NTS) of Russia -- one of the most stable time scales in the world. Its striking feature is that it is based on a free ensemble of H-masers only. During last two years the estimations of NTS longterm stability based only on H-maser intercomparison data gives a flicker floor of about (2 to 3) x 10(exp -15) for averaging times from 1 day to 1 month. Perhaps the most significant feature for a time laboratory is an extremely low possible frequency drift -- it is too difficult to estimate it reliably. The other estimations, free from possible inside the ensemble correlation phenomena, are available based on the time comparison of NTS relative to the stable enough time scale of outer laboratories. The data on NTS comparison relative to the time scale of secondary time and frequency standards at Golitzino and Irkutsk in Russia and relative to NIST, PTB and USNO using GLONASS and GPS time transfer links gives stability estimations which are close to that based on H-maser intercomparisons.

  2. Wind power impacts and electricity storage - a time scale perspective

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hedegaard, Karsten; Meibom, Peter

    2012-01-01

    Integrating large amounts of wind power in energy systems poses balancing challenges due to the variable and only partly predictable nature of wind. The challenges cover different time scales from intra-hour, intra-day/day-ahead to several days and seasonal level. Along with flexible electricity...... demand options, various electricity storage technologies are being discussed as candidates for contributing to large-scale wind power integration and these also differ in terms of the time scales at which they can operate. In this paper, using the case of Western Denmark in 2025 with an expected 57% wind...... power penetration, wind power impacts on different time scales are analysed. Results show consecutive negative and high net load period lengths indicating a significant potential for flexibility measures capable of charging/activating demand and discharging/inactivating demand in periods of 1 h to one...

  3. Microsecond time-scale kinetics of transient biochemical reactions

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mitic, S.; Strampraad, M.J.F.; Hagen, W.R.; de Vries, S.

    2017-01-01

    To afford mechanistic studies in enzyme kinetics and protein folding in the microsecond time domain we have developed a continuous-flow microsecond time-scale mixing instrument with an unprecedented dead-time of 3.8 ± 0.3 μs. The instrument employs a micro-mixer with a mixing time of 2.7 μs

  4. Survival time and effect of selected predictor variables on survival in owned pet cats seropositive for feline immunodeficiency and leukemia virus attending a referral clinic in northern Italy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Spada, Eva; Perego, Roberta; Sgamma, Elena Assunta; Proverbio, Daniela

    2018-02-01

    Feline immunodeficiency virus (FIV) and feline leukemia virus (FeLV) are among the most important feline infectious diseases worldwide. This retrospective study investigated survival times and effects of selected predictor factors on survival time in a population of owned pet cats in Northern Italy testing positive for the presence of FIV antibodies and FeLV antigen. One hundred and three retrovirus-seropositive cats, 53 FIV-seropositive cats, 40 FeLV-seropositive cats, and 10 FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were included in the study. A population of 103 retrovirus-seronegative age and sex-matched cats was selected. Survival time was calculated and compared between retrovirus-seronegative, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats using Kaplan-Meier survival analysis. Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis was used to study the effect of selected predictor factors (male gender, peripheral blood cytopenia as reduced red blood cells - RBC- count, leukopenia, neutropenia and lymphopenia, hypercreatininemia and reduced albumin to globulin ratio) on survival time in retrovirus-seropositive populations. Median survival times for seronegative cats, FIV, FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats were 3960, 2040, 714 and 77days, respectively. Compared to retrovirus-seronegative cats median survival time was significantly lower (P<0.000) in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats. Median survival time in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats was also significant lower (P<0.000) when compared to FIV-seropositive cats. Hazard ratio of death in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats being respectively 3.4 and 7.4 times higher, in comparison to seronegative cats and 2.3 and 4.8 times higher in FeLV and FIV+FeLV-seropositive cats as compared to FIV-seropositive cats. A Cox proportional-hazards regression analysis showed that FIV and FeLV-seropositive cats with reduced RBC counts at time of diagnosis of seropositivity had significantly shorter survival times when compared to FIV and Fe

  5. Time-Scale and Time-Frequency Analyses of Irregularly Sampled Astronomical Time Series

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Roques

    2005-09-01

    Full Text Available We evaluate the quality of spectral restoration in the case of irregular sampled signals in astronomy. We study in details a time-scale method leading to a global wavelet spectrum comparable to the Fourier period, and a time-frequency matching pursuit allowing us to identify the frequencies and to control the error propagation. In both cases, the signals are first resampled with a linear interpolation. Both results are compared with those obtained using Lomb's periodogram and using the weighted waveletZ-transform developed in astronomy for unevenly sampled variable stars observations. These approaches are applied to simulations and to light variations of four variable stars. This leads to the conclusion that the matching pursuit is more efficient for recovering the spectral contents of a pulsating star, even with a preliminary resampling. In particular, the results are almost independent of the quality of the initial irregular sampling.

  6. Clinical findings and survival time in dogs with advanced heart failure.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaumier, Amelie; Rush, John E; Yang, Vicky K; Freeman, Lisa M

    2018-04-10

    Dogs with advanced heart failure are a clinical challenge for veterinarians but there are no studies reporting clinical features and outcome of this population. To describe clinical findings and outcome of dogs with advanced heart failure caused by degenerative mitral valve disease (DMVD). Fifty-four dogs with advanced heart failure because of DMVD. For study purposes, advanced heart failure was defined as recurrence of congestive heart failure signs despite receiving the initially prescribed dose of pimobendan, angiotensin-converting-enzyme inhibitor (ACEI), and furosemide >4 mg/kg/day. Data were collected for the time of diagnosis of Stage C heart failure and time of diagnosis of advanced heart failure. Date of death was recorded. At the diagnosis of advanced heart failure, doses of pimobendan (n = 30), furosemide (n = 28), ACEI (n = 13), and spironolactone (n = 4) were increased, with ≥1 new medications added in most dogs. After initial diagnosis of advanced heart failure, 38 (70%) dogs had additional medications adjustments (median = 2 [range, 0-27]), with the final total medication number ranging from 2-10 (median = 5). Median survival time after diagnosis of advanced heart failure was 281 days (range, 3-885 days). Dogs receiving a furosemide dose >6.70 mg/kg/day had significantly longer median survival times (402 days [range, 3-885 days] versus 129 days [range 9-853 days]; P = .017). Dogs with advanced heart failure can have relatively long survival times. Higher furosemide dose and non-hospitalization were associated with longer survival. Copyright © 2018 The Authors. Journal of Veterinary Internal Medicine published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc. on behalf of the American College of Veterinary Internal Medicine.

  7. Evaluation of serum biochemical marker concentrations and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Equilino, Mirjam; Théodoloz, Vincent; Gorgas, Daniela; Doherr, Marcus G; Heilmann, Romy M; Suchodolski, Jan S; Steiner, Jörg M; Burgener Dvm, Iwan A

    2015-01-01

    To evaluate serum concentrations of biochemical markers and survival time in dogs with protein-losing enteropathy (PLE). Prospective study. 29 dogs with PLE and 18 dogs with food-responsive diarrhea (FRD). Data regarding serum concentrations of various biochemical markers at the initial evaluation were available for 18 of the 29 dogs with PLE and compared with findings for dogs with FRD. Correlations between biochemical marker concentrations and survival time (interval between time of initial evaluation and death or euthanasia) for dogs with PLE were evaluated. Serum C-reactive protein concentration was high in 13 of 18 dogs with PLE and in 2 of 18 dogs with FRD. Serum concentration of canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity was high in 3 dogs with PLE but within the reference interval in all dogs with FRD. Serum α1-proteinase inhibitor concentration was less than the lower reference limit in 9 dogs with PLE and 1 dog with FRD. Compared with findings in dogs with FRD, values of those 3 variables in dogs with PLE were significantly different. Serum calprotectin (measured by radioimmunoassay and ELISA) and S100A12 concentrations were high but did not differ significantly between groups. Seventeen of the 29 dogs with PLE were euthanized owing to this disease; median survival time was 67 days (range, 2 to 2,551 days). Serum C-reactive protein, canine pancreatic lipase immunoreactivity, and α1-proteinase inhibitor concentrations differed significantly between dogs with PLE and FRD. Most initial biomarker concentrations were not predictive of survival time in dogs with PLE.

  8. Survival times with and without tube feeding in patients with dementia or psychiatric diseases in Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takayama, Keiko; Hirayama, Keisuke; Hirao, Akihiko; Kondo, Keiko; Hayashi, Hideki; Kadota, Koichi; Asaba, Hiroyuki; Ishizu, Hideki; Nakata, Kenji; Kurisu, Kairi; Oshima, Etsuko; Yokota, Osamu; Yamada, Norihito; Terada, Seishi

    2017-11-01

    It is widely supposed that there has been no evidence of increased survival in patients with advanced dementia receiving enteral tube feeding. However, more than a few studies have reported no harmful outcome from tube feeding in dementia patients compared to in patients without dementia. This was a retrospective study. Nine psychiatric hospitals in Okayama Prefecture participated in this survey. All inpatients fulfilling the entry criteria were evaluated. All subjects suffered from difficulty with oral intake. Attending physicians thought that the patients could not live without long-term artificial nutrition. The physicians decided whether to make use of long-term artificial nutrition between January 2012 and December 2014. We evaluated 185 patients. Their mean age was 76.6 ± 11.4 years. Of all subjects, patients with probable Alzheimer's disease (n = 78) formed the biggest group, schizophrenia patients (n = 44) the second, and those with vascular dementia (n = 30) the third. The median survival times were 711 days for patients with tube feeding and 61 days for patients without tube feeding. In a comparison different types of tube feeding, median survival times were 611 days for patients with a nasogastric tube and more than 1000 days for those with a percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube. Patients with tube feeding survived longer than those without tube feeding, even among dementia patients. This study suggests that enteral nutrition for patients with dementia prolongs survival. Additionally, percutaneous endoscopic gastrostomy tube feeding may be safer than nasogastric tube feeding among patients in psychiatric hospitals. © 2017 Japanese Psychogeriatric Society.

  9. Full-scale and time-scale heating experiments at Stripa: preliminary results

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Hood, Michael; California Univ., Berkeley

    1978-01-01

    Two full-scale heating experiments and a time-scale heating experiment have recently been started in granite 340 meters below surface. The purpose of the full-scale heating experiments is to assess the near-field effects of thermal loading for the design of an underground repository of nuclear wastes. That of the time-scale heating experiments is to obtain field data of the interaction between heaters and its effect on the rock mass during a period of about two years, which corresponds to about twenty years of full-scale operation. Geological features of the rock around each experiment have been mapped carefully, and temperatures, stresses and displacements induced in the rock by heating have been calculated in advance of the experiments. Some 800 different measurements are recorded at frequent intervals by a computer system situated underground. These data can be compared at any time with predictions made earlier on video display units underground

  10. Systematic review of survival time in experimental mouse stroke with impact on reliability of infarct estimation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klarskov, Carina Kirstine; Klarskov, Mikkel Buster; Hasseldam, Henrik

    2016-01-01

    infarcts with more substantial edema. Purpose: This paper will give an overview of previous studies of experimental mouse stroke, and correlate survival time to peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, investigations of whether the included studies corrected the infarct measurements for edema...... of reasons for the translational problems from mouse experimental stroke to clinical trials probably exists, including infarct size estimations around the peak time of edema formation. Furthermore, edema is a more prominent feature of stroke in mice than in humans, because of the tendency to produce larger...... of the investigated process. Our findings indicate a need for more research in this area, and establishment of common correction methodology....

  11. The Application of Extended Cox Proportional Hazard Method for Estimating Survival Time of Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Husain, Hartina; Astuti Thamrin, Sri; Tahir, Sulaiha; Mukhlisin, Ahmad; Mirna Apriani, M.

    2018-03-01

    Breast cancer is one type of cancer that is the leading cause of death worldwide. This study aims to model the factors that affect the survival time and rate of cure of breast cancer patients. The extended cox model, which is a modification of the proportional hazard cox model in which the proportional hazard assumptions are not met, is used in this study. The maximum likelihood estimation approach is used to estimate the parameters of the model. This method is then applied to medical record data of breast cancer patient in 2011-2016, which is taken from Hasanuddin University Education Hospital. The results obtained indicate that the factors that affect the survival time of breast cancer patients are malignancy and leukocyte levels.

  12. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Behjat-Al-Molook Ajami

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration

  13. Evaluation of Survival Time of Tooth Color Dental Materials in Primary Anterior Teeth

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Taraneh Movahhed

    2012-09-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: In restorative dentistry, selecting the proper material is an important factor for clinical success. The objective of this study was clinical evaluation of survival time of three tooth color materials in primary anterior teeth. Methods: In this interventional clinical trial study, 94 deciduous anterior teeth (36 teeth in boys, 58 teeth in girls belonging to 3-5 year old children in Pediatric Department of Mashhad Faculty of Dentistry, Iran were selected. Selective dental materials included compoglass, glass-ionomer Fuji II LC, and composite resin. The data were analyzed with Kaplan–Meyer and Log rank test. Results: compoglass had the highest survival time in comparison with composite and glass-ionomer. Nine months retention rate for teeth restored with compoglass, composite resin and glass-ionomer were estimated: 95%, 21%, and 12.5%, respectively. Conclusion: Compoglass can be a suitable material for anterior primary teeth restoration.

  14. Hydrodynamic time scales for intense laser-heated clusters

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Parra, Enrique; Alexeev, Ilya; Fan, Jingyun; Kim, Kiong Y.; McNaught, Stuart J.; Milchberg, Howard M.

    2003-01-01

    Measurements are presented of x-ray (>1.5 keV) and extreme ultraviolet (EUV, λ equal to 2-44 nm) emission from argon clusters irradiated with constant-energy (50 mJ), variable-width laser pulses ranging from 100 fs to 10 ns. The results for clusters can be understood in terms of two time scales: a short time scale for optimal resonant absorption at the critical-density layer in the expanding plasma, and a longer time scale for the plasma to drop below critical density. We present a one-dimensional hydrodynamic model of the intense laser-cluster interaction in which the laser field is treated self-consistently. We find that nonuniform expansion of the heated material results in long-time resonance of the laser field at the critical-density plasma layer. These simulations explain the dependence of generation efficiency on laser pulse width

  15. Scaling properties in time-varying networks with memory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyewon; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2015-12-01

    The formation of network structure is mainly influenced by an individual node's activity and its memory, where activity can usually be interpreted as the individual inherent property and memory can be represented by the interaction strength between nodes. In our study, we define the activity through the appearance pattern in the time-aggregated network representation, and quantify the memory through the contact pattern of empirical temporal networks. To address the role of activity and memory in epidemics on time-varying networks, we propose temporal-pattern coarsening of activity-driven growing networks with memory. In particular, we focus on the relation between time-scale coarsening and spreading dynamics in the context of dynamic scaling and finite-size scaling. Finally, we discuss the universality issue of spreading dynamics on time-varying networks for various memory-causality tests.

  16. Survivable architectures for time and wavelength division multiplexed passive optical networks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wong, Elaine

    2014-08-01

    The increased network reach and customer base of next-generation time and wavelength division multiplexed PON (TWDM-PONs) have necessitated rapid fault detection and subsequent restoration of services to its users. However, direct application of existing solutions for conventional PONs to TWDM-PONs is unsuitable as these schemes rely on the loss of signal (LOS) of upstream transmissions to trigger protection switching. As TWDM-PONs are required to potentially use sleep/doze mode optical network units (ONU), the loss of upstream transmission from a sleeping or dozing ONU could erroneously trigger protection switching. Further, TWDM-PONs require its monitoring modules for fiber/device fault detection to be more sensitive than those typically deployed in conventional PONs. To address the above issues, three survivable architectures that are compliant with TWDM-PON specifications are presented in this work. These architectures combine rapid detection and protection switching against multipoint failure, and most importantly do not rely on upstream transmissions for LOS activation. Survivability analyses as well as evaluations of the additional costs incurred to achieve survivability are performed and compared to the unprotected TWDM-PON. Network parameters that impact the maximum achievable network reach, maximum split ratio, connection availability, fault impact, and the incremental reliability costs for each proposed survivable architecture are highlighted.

  17. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time vs. Proportional Hazards Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelfand, Lois A.; MacKinnon, David P.; DeRubeis, Robert J.; Baraldi, Amanda N.

    2016-01-01

    Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored) events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH) and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT) approaches for illustration. Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively) under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings. Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome—underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG. Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results. PMID:27065906

  18. Mediation Analysis with Survival Outcomes: Accelerated Failure Time Versus Proportional Hazards Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lois A Gelfand

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Objective: Survival time is an important type of outcome variable in treatment research. Currently, limited guidance is available regarding performing mediation analyses with survival outcomes, which generally do not have normally distributed errors, and contain unobserved (censored events. We present considerations for choosing an approach, using a comparison of semi-parametric proportional hazards (PH and fully parametric accelerated failure time (AFT approaches for illustration.Method: We compare PH and AFT models and procedures in their integration into mediation models and review their ability to produce coefficients that estimate causal effects. Using simulation studies modeling Weibull-distributed survival times, we compare statistical properties of mediation analyses incorporating PH and AFT approaches (employing SAS procedures PHREG and LIFEREG, respectively under varied data conditions, some including censoring. A simulated data set illustrates the findings.Results: AFT models integrate more easily than PH models into mediation models. Furthermore, mediation analyses incorporating LIFEREG produce coefficients that can estimate causal effects, and demonstrate superior statistical properties. Censoring introduces bias in the coefficient estimate representing the treatment effect on outcome – underestimation in LIFEREG, and overestimation in PHREG. With LIFEREG, this bias can be addressed using an alternative estimate obtained from combining other coefficients, whereas this is not possible with PHREG.Conclusions: When Weibull assumptions are not violated, there are compelling advantages to using LIFEREG over PHREG for mediation analyses involving survival-time outcomes. Irrespective of the procedures used, the interpretation of coefficients, effects of censoring on coefficient estimates, and statistical properties should be taken into account when reporting results.

  19. Integration of RNA-Seq and RPPA data for survival time prediction in cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Isik, Zerrin; Ercan, Muserref Ece

    2017-10-01

    Integration of several types of patient data in a computational framework can accelerate the identification of more reliable biomarkers, especially for prognostic purposes. This study aims to identify biomarkers that can successfully predict the potential survival time of a cancer patient by integrating the transcriptomic (RNA-Seq), proteomic (RPPA), and protein-protein interaction (PPI) data. The proposed method -RPBioNet- employs a random walk-based algorithm that works on a PPI network to identify a limited number of protein biomarkers. Later, the method uses gene expression measurements of the selected biomarkers to train a classifier for the survival time prediction of patients. RPBioNet was applied to classify kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), glioblastoma multiforme (GBM), and lung squamous cell carcinoma (LUSC) patients based on their survival time classes (long- or short-term). The RPBioNet method correctly identified the survival time classes of patients with between 66% and 78% average accuracy for three data sets. RPBioNet operates with only 20 to 50 biomarkers and can achieve on average 6% higher accuracy compared to the closest alternative method, which uses only RNA-Seq data in the biomarker selection. Further analysis of the most predictive biomarkers highlighted genes that are common for both cancer types, as they may be driver proteins responsible for cancer progression. The novelty of this study is the integration of a PPI network with mRNA and protein expression data to identify more accurate prognostic biomarkers that can be used for clinical purposes in the future. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Association of Bystander Cardiopulmonary Resuscitation and Survival According to Ambulance Response Times After Out-of-Hospital Cardiac Arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik; Hansen, Steen Møller; Gerds, Thomas A; Kragholm, Kristian; Hansen, Carolina Malta; Karlsson, Lena; Lippert, Freddy K; Køber, Lars; Gislason, Gunnar H; Torp-Pedersen, Christian

    2016-12-20

    Bystander-initiated cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR) increases patient survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest, but it is unknown to what degree bystander CPR remains positively associated with survival with increasing time to potential defibrillation. The main objective was to examine the association of bystander CPR with survival as time to advanced treatment increases. We studied 7623 out-of-hospital cardiac arrest patients between 2005 and 2011, identified through the nationwide Danish Cardiac Arrest Registry. Multiple logistic regression analysis was used to examine the association between time from 911 call to emergency medical service arrival (response time) and survival according to whether bystander CPR was provided (yes or no). Reported are 30-day survival chances with 95% bootstrap confidence intervals. With increasing response times, adjusted 30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish out-of-hospital cardiac arrest statistics, an additional 233 patients could potentially be saved annually if response time was reduced from 10 to 5 minutes and 119 patients if response time was reduced from 7 (the median

  1. Ignition in net for different energy confinement time scalings

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Johner, J.; Prevot, F.

    1988-06-01

    A zero-dimensional profile dependent model is used to assess the feasibility of ignition in the extended version of NET. Five recent scalings for the energy confinement time (Goldston, Kaye All, Kaye Big, Shimomura-Odajima, Rebut-Lallia) are compared in the frame of two different scenarii, i.e., H-mode with a flat density profile or L-mode with a peaked density profile. For the flat density H-mode case, ignition is accessible with none of the scalings except Rebut-Lallia's. For the peaked density L-mode case, ignition is accessible with none of the scalings except Rebut-Lallia's. For the two Kaye's scalings, ignition is forbidden in H-mode even with the peaked density profile. For the Rebut-Lallia scaling, ignition is allowed in L-mode even with the flat density profile

  2. Deviations from uniform power law scaling in nonstationary time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viswanathan, G. M.; Peng, C. K.; Stanley, H. E.; Goldberger, A. L.

    1997-01-01

    A classic problem in physics is the analysis of highly nonstationary time series that typically exhibit long-range correlations. Here we test the hypothesis that the scaling properties of the dynamics of healthy physiological systems are more stable than those of pathological systems by studying beat-to-beat fluctuations in the human heart rate. We develop techniques based on the Fano factor and Allan factor functions, as well as on detrended fluctuation analysis, for quantifying deviations from uniform power-law scaling in nonstationary time series. By analyzing extremely long data sets of up to N = 10(5) beats for 11 healthy subjects, we find that the fluctuations in the heart rate scale approximately uniformly over several temporal orders of magnitude. By contrast, we find that in data sets of comparable length for 14 subjects with heart disease, the fluctuations grow erratically, indicating a loss of scaling stability.

  3. Physics in space-time with scale-dependent metrics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Balankin, Alexander S.

    2013-10-01

    We construct three-dimensional space Rγ3 with the scale-dependent metric and the corresponding Minkowski space-time Mγ,β4 with the scale-dependent fractal (DH) and spectral (DS) dimensions. The local derivatives based on scale-dependent metrics are defined and differential vector calculus in Rγ3 is developed. We state that Mγ,β4 provides a unified phenomenological framework for dimensional flow observed in quite different models of quantum gravity. Nevertheless, the main attention is focused on the special case of flat space-time M1/3,14 with the scale-dependent Cantor-dust-like distribution of admissible states, such that DH increases from DH=2 on the scale ≪ℓ0 to DH=4 in the infrared limit ≫ℓ0, where ℓ0 is the characteristic length (e.g. the Planck length, or characteristic size of multi-fractal features in heterogeneous medium), whereas DS≡4 in all scales. Possible applications of approach based on the scale-dependent metric to systems of different nature are briefly discussed.

  4. Length and time scales of atmospheric moisture recycling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. van der Ent

    2011-03-01

    Full Text Available It is difficult to quantify the degree to which terrestrial evaporation supports the occurrence of precipitation within a certain study region (i.e. regional moisture recycling due to the scale- and shape-dependence of regional moisture recycling ratios. In this paper we present a novel approach to quantify the spatial and temporal scale of moisture recycling, independent of the size and shape of the region under study. In contrast to previous studies, which essentially used curve fitting, the scaling laws presented by us follow directly from the process equation. thus allowing a fair comparison between regions and seasons. The calculation is based on ERA-Interim reanalysis data for the period 1999 to 2008. It is shown that in the tropics or in mountainous terrain the length scale of recycling can be as low as 500 to 2000 km. In temperate climates the length scale is typically between 3000 to 5000 km whereas it amounts to more than 7000 km in desert areas. The time scale of recycling ranges from 3 to 20 days, with the exception of deserts, where it is much longer. The most distinct seasonal differences can be observed over the Northern Hemisphere: in winter, moisture recycling is insignificant, whereas in summer it plays a major role in the climate. The length and time scales of atmospheric moisture recycling can be useful metrics to quantify local climatic effects of land use change.

  5. Association of the Timing of Pregnancy With Survival in Women With Breast Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Iqbal, Javaid; Amir, Eitan; Rochon, Paula A.; Giannakeas, Vasily; Sun, Ping

    2017-01-01

    Importance Increasing numbers of women experience pregnancy around the time of, or after, a diagnosis of breast cancer. Understanding the effect of pregnancy on survival in women with breast cancer will help in the counseling and treatment of these women. Objective To compare the overall survival of women diagnosed with breast cancer during pregnancy or in the postpartum period with that of women who had breast cancer but did not become pregnant. Design, Setting, and Participants This population-based, retrospective cohort study linked health administrative databases in Ontario, Canada, comprising 7553 women aged 20 to 45 years at the time of diagnosis with invasive breast cancer, from January 1, 2003, to December 31, 2014. Exposures Any pregnancy in the period from 5 years before, until 5 years after, the index date of the diagnosis of breast cancer. Women were classified into the following 4 exposure groups: no pregnancy (the referent), pregnancy before breast cancer, pregnancy-associated breast cancer, and pregnancy following breast cancer. Main Outcomes and Measures Five-year actuarial survival rates for all exposure groups, age-adjusted and multivariable hazard ratios [HRs] of pregnancy for overall survival for all exposure groups, and time-dependent hazard ratios for women with pregnancy following breast cancer. Results Among the 7553 women in the study (mean age at diagnosis, 39.1 years; median, 40 years; range, 20-44 years) the 5-year actuarial survival rate was 87.5% (95% CI, 86.5%-88.4%) for women with no pregnancy, 85.3% (95% CI, 82.8%-87.8%) for women with pregnancy before breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.85-1.27; P = .73), and 82.1% (95% CI, 78.3%-85.9%) for women with pregnancy-associated breast cancer (age-adjusted hazard ratio, 1.18; 95% CI, 0.91-1.53; P = .20). The 5-year actuarial survival rate was 96.7% (95% CI, 94.1%-99.3%) for women who had pregnancy 6 months or more after diagnosis of breast cancer, vs 87

  6. Timely disclosure of progress in long-term cancer survival: the boomerang method substantially improved estimates in a comparative study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brenner, Hermann; Jansen, Lina

    2016-02-01

    Monitoring cancer survival is a key task of cancer registries, but timely disclosure of progress in long-term survival remains a challenge. We introduce and evaluate a novel method, denoted "boomerang method," for deriving more up-to-date estimates of long-term survival. We applied three established methods (cohort, complete, and period analysis) and the boomerang method to derive up-to-date 10-year relative survival of patients diagnosed with common solid cancers and hematological malignancies in the United States. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results 9 database, we compared the most up-to-date age-specific estimates that might have been obtained with the database including patients diagnosed up to 2001 with 10-year survival later observed for patients diagnosed in 1997-2001. For cancers with little or no increase in survival over time, the various estimates of 10-year relative survival potentially available by the end of 2001 were generally rather similar. For malignancies with strongly increasing survival over time, including breast and prostate cancer and all hematological malignancies, the boomerang method provided estimates that were closest to later observed 10-year relative survival in 23 of the 34 groups assessed. The boomerang method can substantially improve up-to-dateness of long-term cancer survival estimates in times of ongoing improvement in prognosis. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  7. Physical time scale in kinetic Monte Carlo simulations of continuous-time Markov chains.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Serebrinsky, Santiago A

    2011-03-01

    We rigorously establish a physical time scale for a general class of kinetic Monte Carlo algorithms for the simulation of continuous-time Markov chains. This class of algorithms encompasses rejection-free (or BKL) and rejection (or "standard") algorithms. For rejection algorithms, it was formerly considered that the availability of a physical time scale (instead of Monte Carlo steps) was empirical, at best. Use of Monte Carlo steps as a time unit now becomes completely unnecessary.

  8. Fractional dynamic calculus and fractional dynamic equations on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Georgiev, Svetlin G

    2018-01-01

    Pedagogically organized, this monograph introduces fractional calculus and fractional dynamic equations on time scales in relation to mathematical physics applications and problems. Beginning with the definitions of forward and backward jump operators, the book builds from Stefan Hilger’s basic theories on time scales and examines recent developments within the field of fractional calculus and fractional equations. Useful tools are provided for solving differential and integral equations as well as various problems involving special functions of mathematical physics and their extensions and generalizations in one and more variables. Much discussion is devoted to Riemann-Liouville fractional dynamic equations and Caputo fractional dynamic equations.  Intended for use in the field and designed for students without an extensive mathematical background, this book is suitable for graduate courses and researchers looking for an introduction to fractional dynamic calculus and equations on time scales. .

  9. The role of donor age and ischemic time on survival following orthotopic heart transplantation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Del Rizzo, D F; Menkis, A H; Pflugfelder, P W; Novick, R J; McKenzie, F N; Boyd, W D; Kostuk, W J

    1999-04-01

    The advances in immunotherapy, along with a liberalization of eligibility criteria have contributed significantly to the ever increasing demand for donor organs. In an attempt to expand the donor pool, transplant programs are now accepting older donors as well as donors from more remote areas. The purpose of this study is to determine the effect of donor age and organ ischemic time on survival following orthotopic heart transplantation (OHT). From April 1981 to December 1996 372 adult patients underwent OHT at the University of Western Ontario. Cox proportional hazards models were used to identify predictors of outcome. Variables affecting survival were then entered into a stepwise logistic regression model to develop probability models for 30-day- and 1-year-mortality. The mean age of the recipient population was 45.6 +/- 12.3 years (range 18-64 years: 54 56 years). The majority (329 patients, 86.1%) were male and the most common indications for OHT were ischemic (n = 180) and idiopathic (n = 171) cardiomyopathy. Total ischemic time (TIT) was 202.4 +/- 84.5 minutes (range 47-457 minutes). In 86 donors TIT was under 2 hours while it was between 2 and 4 hours in 168, and more than 4 hours in 128 donors. Actuarial survival was 80%, 73%, and 55% at 1, 5, and 10 years respectively. By Cox proportional hazards models, recipient status (Status I-II vs III-IV; risk ratio 1.75; p = 0.003) and donor age, examined as either a continuous or categorical variable ([age or = 35; risk ratio 1.98; p or = 50; risk ratio 2.20; p or = 50; risk ratio 1.83; p 50 years (p = 0.009). By stepwise logistic regression analysis, a probability model for survival was then developed based on donor age, the interaction between donor age and ischemic time, and patient status. Improvements in myocardial preservation and peri-operative management may allow for the safe utilization of donor organs with prolonged ischemic times. Older donors are associated with decreased peri-operative and long

  10. Time-dependent scaling patterns in high frequency financial data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nava, Noemi; Di Matteo, Tiziana; Aste, Tomaso

    2016-10-01

    We measure the influence of different time-scales on the intraday dynamics of financial markets. This is obtained by decomposing financial time series into simple oscillations associated with distinct time-scales. We propose two new time-varying measures of complexity: 1) an amplitude scaling exponent and 2) an entropy-like measure. We apply these measures to intraday, 30-second sampled prices of various stock market indices. Our results reveal intraday trends where different time-horizons contribute with variable relative amplitudes over the course of the trading day. Our findings indicate that the time series we analysed have a non-stationary multifractal nature with predominantly persistent behaviour at the middle of the trading session and anti-persistent behaviour at the opening and at the closing of the session. We demonstrate that these patterns are statistically significant, robust, reproducible and characteristic of each stock market. We argue that any modelling, analytics or trading strategy must take into account these non-stationary intraday scaling patterns.

  11. Evaluation of scaling invariance embedded in short time series.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xue Pan

    Full Text Available Scaling invariance of time series has been making great contributions in diverse research fields. But how to evaluate scaling exponent from a real-world series is still an open problem. Finite length of time series may induce unacceptable fluctuation and bias to statistical quantities and consequent invalidation of currently used standard methods. In this paper a new concept called correlation-dependent balanced estimation of diffusion entropy is developed to evaluate scale-invariance in very short time series with length ~10(2. Calculations with specified Hurst exponent values of 0.2,0.3,...,0.9 show that by using the standard central moving average de-trending procedure this method can evaluate the scaling exponents for short time series with ignorable bias (≤0.03 and sharp confidential interval (standard deviation ≤0.05. Considering the stride series from ten volunteers along an approximate oval path of a specified length, we observe that though the averages and deviations of scaling exponents are close, their evolutionary behaviors display rich patterns. It has potential use in analyzing physiological signals, detecting early warning signals, and so on. As an emphasis, the our core contribution is that by means of the proposed method one can estimate precisely shannon entropy from limited records.

  12. Evaluation of scaling invariance embedded in short time series.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pan, Xue; Hou, Lei; Stephen, Mutua; Yang, Huijie; Zhu, Chenping

    2014-01-01

    Scaling invariance of time series has been making great contributions in diverse research fields. But how to evaluate scaling exponent from a real-world series is still an open problem. Finite length of time series may induce unacceptable fluctuation and bias to statistical quantities and consequent invalidation of currently used standard methods. In this paper a new concept called correlation-dependent balanced estimation of diffusion entropy is developed to evaluate scale-invariance in very short time series with length ~10(2). Calculations with specified Hurst exponent values of 0.2,0.3,...,0.9 show that by using the standard central moving average de-trending procedure this method can evaluate the scaling exponents for short time series with ignorable bias (≤0.03) and sharp confidential interval (standard deviation ≤0.05). Considering the stride series from ten volunteers along an approximate oval path of a specified length, we observe that though the averages and deviations of scaling exponents are close, their evolutionary behaviors display rich patterns. It has potential use in analyzing physiological signals, detecting early warning signals, and so on. As an emphasis, the our core contribution is that by means of the proposed method one can estimate precisely shannon entropy from limited records.

  13. Local-scale drivers of tree survival in a temperate forest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xugao; Comita, Liza S; Hao, Zhanqing; Davies, Stuart J; Ye, Ji; Lin, Fei; Yuan, Zuoqiang

    2012-01-01

    Tree survival plays a central role in forest ecosystems. Although many factors such as tree size, abiotic and biotic neighborhoods have been proposed as being important in explaining patterns of tree survival, their contributions are still subject to debate. We used generalized linear mixed models to examine the relative importance of tree size, local abiotic conditions and the density and identity of neighbors on tree survival in an old-growth temperate forest in northeastern China at three levels (community, guild and species). Tree size and both abiotic and biotic neighborhood variables influenced tree survival under current forest conditions, but their relative importance varied dramatically within and among the community, guild and species levels. Of the variables tested, tree size was typically the most important predictor of tree survival, followed by biotic and then abiotic variables. The effect of tree size on survival varied from strongly positive for small trees (1-20 cm dbh) and medium trees (20-40 cm dbh), to slightly negative for large trees (>40 cm dbh). Among the biotic factors, we found strong evidence for negative density and frequency dependence in this temperate forest, as indicated by negative effects of both total basal area of neighbors and the frequency of conspecific neighbors. Among the abiotic factors tested, soil nutrients tended to be more important in affecting tree survival than topographic variables. Abiotic factors generally influenced survival for species with relatively high abundance, for individuals in smaller size classes and for shade-tolerant species. Our study demonstrates that the relative importance of variables driving patterns of tree survival differs greatly among size classes, species guilds and abundance classes in temperate forest, which can further understanding of forest dynamics and offer important insights into forest management.

  14. Nonlinear triple-point problems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas R. Anderson

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available We establish the existence of multiple positive solutions to the nonlinear second-order triple-point boundary-value problem on time scales, $$displaylines{ u^{Delta abla}(t+h(tf(t,u(t=0, cr u(a=alpha u(b+delta u^Delta(a,quad eta u(c+gamma u^Delta(c=0 }$$ for $tin[a,c]subsetmathbb{T}$, where $mathbb{T}$ is a time scale, $eta, gamma, deltage 0$ with $Beta+gamma>0$, $0

  15. Dynamics symmetries of Hamiltonian system on time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peng, Keke, E-mail: pengkeke88@126.com; Luo, Yiping, E-mail: zjstulyp@126.com [Department of Physics, Zhejiang Sci-Tech University, Hangzhou 310018 (China)

    2014-04-15

    In this paper, the dynamics symmetries of Hamiltonian system on time scales are studied. We study the symmetries and quantities based on the calculation of variation and Lie transformation group. Particular focus lies in: the Noether symmetry leads to the Noether conserved quantity and the Lie symmetry leads to the Noether conserved quantity if the infinitesimal transformations satisfy the structure equation. As the new application of result, at end of the article, we give a simple example of Noether symmetry and Lie symmetry on time scales.

  16. Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects on a time-to-event endpoint using structural cumulative survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martinussen, Torben; Vansteelandt, Stijn; Tchetgen Tchetgen, Eric J; Zucker, David M

    2017-12-01

    The use of instrumental variables for estimating the effect of an exposure on an outcome is popular in econometrics, and increasingly so in epidemiology. This increasing popularity may be attributed to the natural occurrence of instrumental variables in observational studies that incorporate elements of randomization, either by design or by nature (e.g., random inheritance of genes). Instrumental variables estimation of exposure effects is well established for continuous outcomes and to some extent for binary outcomes. It is, however, largely lacking for time-to-event outcomes because of complications due to censoring and survivorship bias. In this article, we make a novel proposal under a class of structural cumulative survival models which parameterize time-varying effects of a point exposure directly on the scale of the survival function; these models are essentially equivalent with a semi-parametric variant of the instrumental variables additive hazards model. We propose a class of recursive instrumental variable estimators for these exposure effects, and derive their large sample properties along with inferential tools. We examine the performance of the proposed method in simulation studies and illustrate it in a Mendelian randomization study to evaluate the effect of diabetes on mortality using data from the Health and Retirement Study. We further use the proposed method to investigate potential benefit from breast cancer screening on subsequent breast cancer mortality based on the HIP-study. © 2017, The International Biometric Society.

  17. Cognitive componets of speech at different time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Feng, Ling; Hansen, Lars Kai

    2007-01-01

    Cognitive component analysis (COCA) is defined as unsupervised grouping of data leading to a group structure well aligned with that resulting from human cognitive activity. We focus here on speech at different time scales looking for possible hidden ‘cognitive structure’. Statistical regularities...

  18. Development of the Free Time Motivation Scale for Adolescents.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baldwin, Cheryl K.; Caldwell, Linda L.

    2003-01-01

    Developed a self-report measure of adolescent free time motivation based in self-determination theory, using data from 634 seventh graders. The scale measured five forms of motivation (amotivation, external, introjected, identified, and intrinsic motivation). Examination of each of the subscales indicated minimally acceptable levels of fit. The…

  19. Vibration amplitude rule study for rotor under large time scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yang Xuan; Zuo Jianli; Duan Changcheng

    2014-01-01

    The rotor is an important part of the rotating machinery; its vibration performance is one of the important factors affecting the service life. This paper presents both theoretical analyses and experimental demonstrations of the vibration rule of the rotor under large time scales. The rule can be used for the service life estimation of the rotor. (authors)

  20. Multiple time scales of adaptation in auditory cortex neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ulanovsky, Nachum; Las, Liora; Farkas, Dina; Nelken, Israel

    2004-11-17

    Neurons in primary auditory cortex (A1) of cats show strong stimulus-specific adaptation (SSA). In probabilistic settings, in which one stimulus is common and another is rare, responses to common sounds adapt more strongly than responses to rare sounds. This SSA could be a correlate of auditory sensory memory at the level of single A1 neurons. Here we studied adaptation in A1 neurons, using three different probabilistic designs. We showed that SSA has several time scales concurrently, spanning many orders of magnitude, from hundreds of milliseconds to tens of seconds. Similar time scales are known for the auditory memory span of humans, as measured both psychophysically and using evoked potentials. A simple model, with linear dependence on both short-term and long-term stimulus history, provided a good fit to A1 responses. Auditory thalamus neurons did not show SSA, and their responses were poorly fitted by the same model. In addition, SSA increased the proportion of failures in the responses of A1 neurons to the adapting stimulus. Finally, SSA caused a bias in the neuronal responses to unbiased stimuli, enhancing the responses to eccentric stimuli. Therefore, we propose that a major function of SSA in A1 neurons is to encode auditory sensory memory on multiple time scales. This SSA might play a role in stream segregation and in binding of auditory objects over many time scales, a property that is crucial for processing of natural auditory scenes in cats and of speech and music in humans.

  1. THEORETICAL REVIEW The Hippocampus, Time, and Memory Across Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Howard, Marc W.; Eichenbaum, Howard

    2014-01-01

    A wealth of experimental studies with animals have offered insights about how neural networks within the hippocampus support the temporal organization of memories. These studies have revealed the existence of “time cells” that encode moments in time, much as the well-known “place cells” map locations in space. Another line of work inspired by human behavioral studies suggests that episodic memories are mediated by a state of temporal context that changes gradually over long time scales, up to at least a few thousand seconds. In this view, the “mental time travel” hypothesized to support the experience of episodic memory corresponds to a “jump back in time” in which a previous state of temporal context is recovered. We suggest that these 2 sets of findings could be different facets of a representation of temporal history that maintains a record at the last few thousand seconds of experience. The ability to represent long time scales comes at the cost of discarding precise information about when a stimulus was experienced—this uncertainty becomes greater for events further in the past. We review recent computational work that describes a mechanism that could construct such a scale-invariant representation. Taken as a whole, this suggests the hippocampus plays its role in multiple aspects of cognition by representing events embedded in a general spatiotemporal context. The representation of internal time can be useful across nonhippocampal memory systems. PMID:23915126

  2. Pre-hospital transport times and survival for Hypotensive patients with penetrating thoracic trauma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mamta Swaroop

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Achieving definitive care within the "Golden Hour" by minimizing response times is a consistent goal of regional trauma systems . This study hypothesizes that in urban Level I Trauma Centers, shorter pre-hospital times would predict outcomes in penetrating thoracic injuries. Materials and Methods: A retrospective cohort study was performed using a statewide trauma registry for the years 1999-2003 . Total pre-hospital times were measured for urban victims of penetrating thoracic trauma. Crude and adjusted mortality rates were compared by pre-hospital time using STATA statistical software. Results: During the study period, 908 patients presented to the hospital after penetrating thoracic trauma, with 79% surviving . Patients with higher injury severity scores (ISS were transported more quickly. Injury severity scores (ISS ≥16 and emergency department (ED hypotension (systolic blood pressure, SBP <90 strongly predicted mortality (P < 0.05 for each . In a logistic regression model including age, race, and ISS, longer transport times for hypotensive patients were associated with higher mortality rates (all P values <0.05. This was seen most significantly when comparing patient transport times 0-15 min and 46-60 min (P < 0.001. Conclusion: In victims of penetrating thoracic trauma, more severely injured patients arrive at urban trauma centers sooner . Mortality is strongly predicted by injury severity, although shorter pre-hospital times are associated with improved survival . These results suggest that careful planning to optimize transport time-encompassing hospital capacity and existing resources, traffic patterns, and trauma incident densities may be beneficial in areas with a high burden of penetrating trauma.

  3. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McMillan, Matthew T.; Ojerholm, Eric; Roses, Robert E.; Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M.; Mamtani, Ronac; Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A.; Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar; Datta, Jashodeep

    2015-01-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered

  4. Adjuvant Radiation Therapy Treatment Time Impacts Overall Survival in Gastric Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    McMillan, Matthew T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ojerholm, Eric [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Roses, Robert E., E-mail: Robert.Roses@uphs.upenn.edu [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Plastaras, John P.; Metz, James M. [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mamtani, Ronac [Department of Hematology/Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Karakousis, Giorgos C.; Fraker, Douglas L.; Drebin, Jeffrey A. [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Stripp, Diana; Ben-Josef, Edgar [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Datta, Jashodeep [Department of Surgery, University of Pennsylvania Perelman School of Medicine, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2015-10-01

    Purpose: Prolonged radiation therapy treatment time (RTT) is associated with worse survival in several tumor types. This study investigated whether delays during adjuvant radiation therapy impact overall survival (OS) in gastric cancer. Methods and Materials: The National Cancer Data Base was queried for patients with resected gastric cancer who received adjuvant radiation therapy with National Comprehensive Cancer Network–recommended doses (45 or 50.4 Gy) between 1998 and 2006. RTT was classified as standard (45 Gy: 33-36 days, 50.4 Gy: 38-41 days) or prolonged (45 Gy: >36 days, 50.4 Gy: >41 days). Cox proportional hazards models evaluated the association between the following factors and OS: RTT, interval from surgery to radiation therapy initiation, interval from surgery to radiation therapy completion, radiation therapy dose, demographic/pathologic and operative factors, and other elements of adjuvant multimodality therapy. Results: Of 1591 patients, RTT was delayed in 732 (46%). Factors associated with prolonged RTT were non-private health insurance (OR 1.3, P=.005) and treatment at non-academic facilities (OR 1.2, P=.045). Median OS and 5-year actuarial survival were significantly worse in patients with prolonged RTT compared with standard RTT (36 vs 51 months, P=.001; 39 vs 47%, P=.005); OS worsened with each cumulative week of delay (P<.0004). On multivariable analysis, prolonged RTT was associated with inferior OS (hazard ratio 1.2, P=.002); the intervals from surgery to radiation therapy initiation or completion were not. Prolonged RTT was particularly detrimental in patients with node positivity, inadequate nodal staging (<15 nodes examined), and those undergoing a cycle of chemotherapy before chemoradiation therapy. Conclusions: Delays during adjuvant radiation therapy appear to negatively impact survival in gastric cancer. Efforts to minimize cumulative interruptions to <7 days should be considered.

  5. Time scale algorithm: Definition of ensemble time and possible uses of the Kalman filter

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tavella, Patrizia; Thomas, Claudine

    1990-01-01

    The comparative study of two time scale algorithms, devised to satisfy different but related requirements, is presented. They are ALGOS(BIPM), producing the international reference TAI at the Bureau International des Poids et Mesures, and AT1(NIST), generating the real-time time scale AT1 at the National Institute of Standards and Technology. In each case, the time scale is a weighted average of clock readings, but the weight determination and the frequency prediction are different because they are adapted to different purposes. The possibility of using a mathematical tool, such as the Kalman filter, together with the definition of the time scale as a weighted average, is also analyzed. Results obtained by simulation are presented.

  6. Does prehospital time affect survival of major trauma patients where there is no prehospital care?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S B Dharap

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Background: Survival after major trauma is considered to be time dependent. Efficient prehospital care with rapid transport is the norm in developed countries, which is not available in many lower middle and low-income countries. The aim of this study was to assess the effect of prehospital time and primary treatment given on survival of major trauma patients in a setting without prehospital care. Materials and Methods: This prospective observational study was carried out in a university hospital in Mumbai, from January to December 2014. The hospital has a trauma service but no organized prehospital care or defined interhospital transfer protocols. All patients with life- and/or limb-threatening injuries were included in the study. Injury time and arrival time were noted and the interval was defined as “prehospital time” for the directly arriving patients and as “time to tertiary care” for those transferred. Primary outcome measure was in-hospital death (or discharge. Results: Of 1181 patients, 352 were admitted directly from the trauma scene and 829 were transferred from other hospitals. In-hospital mortality was associated with age, mechanism and mode of injury, shock, Glasgow Coma Score <9, Injury Severity Score ≥16, need for intubation, and ventilatory support on arrival; but neither with prehospital time nor with time to tertiary care. Transferred patients had a significantly higher mortality (odds ratio = 1.869, 95% confidence interval = 1.233–2.561, P = 0.005 despite fewer patients with severe injury. Two hundred and ninety-four (35% of these needed airway intervention while 108 (13% needed chest tube insertion on arrival to the trauma unit suggesting inadequate care at primary facility. Conclusion: Mortality is not associated with prehospital time but with transfers from primary care; probably due to deficient care. To improve survival after major trauma, enhancement of resources for resuscitation and capacity building of on

  7. Time scale controversy: Accurate orbital calibration of the early Paleogene

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roehl, U.; Westerhold, T.; Laskar, J.

    2012-12-01

    Timing is crucial to understanding the causes and consequences of events in Earth history. The calibration of geological time relies heavily on the accuracy of radioisotopic and astronomical dating. Uncertainties in the computations of Earth's orbital parameters and in radioisotopic dating have hampered the construction of a reliable astronomically calibrated time scale beyond 40 Ma. Attempts to construct a robust astronomically tuned time scale for the early Paleogene by integrating radioisotopic and astronomical dating are only partially consistent. Here, using the new La2010 and La2011 orbital solutions, we present the first accurate astronomically calibrated time scale for the early Paleogene (47-65 Ma) uniquely based on astronomical tuning and thus independent of the radioisotopic determination of the Fish Canyon standard. Comparison with geological data confirms the stability of the new La2011 solution back to 54 Ma. Subsequent anchoring of floating chronologies to the La2011 solution using the very long eccentricity nodes provides an absolute age of 55.530 ± 0.05 Ma for the onset of the Paleocene/Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM), 54.850 ± 0.05 Ma for the early Eocene ash -17, and 65.250 ± 0.06 Ma for the K/Pg boundary. The new astrochronology presented here indicates that the intercalibration and synchronization of U/Pb and 40Ar/39Ar radioisotopic geochronology is much more challenging than previously thought.

  8. Parent-child communication and marijuana initiation: evidence using discrete-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nonnemaker, James M; Silber-Ashley, Olivia; Farrelly, Matthew C; Dench, Daniel

    2012-12-01

    This study supplements existing literature on the relationship between parent-child communication and adolescent drug use by exploring whether parental and/or adolescent recall of specific drug-related conversations differentially impact youth's likelihood of initiating marijuana use. Using discrete-time survival analysis, we estimated the hazard of marijuana initiation using a logit model to obtain an estimate of the relative risk of initiation. Our results suggest that parent-child communication about drug use is either not protective (no effect) or - in the case of youth reports of communication - potentially harmful (leading to increased likelihood of marijuana initiation). Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  9. Decoding the Mobility and Time Scales of Protein Loops.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, Yina; Li, Da-Wei; Brüschweiler, Rafael

    2015-03-10

    The flexible nature of protein loops and the time scales of their dynamics are critical for many biologically important events at the molecular level, such as protein interaction and recognition processes. In order to obtain a predictive understanding of the dynamic properties of loops, 500 ns molecular dynamics (MD) computer simulations of 38 different proteins were performed and validated using NMR chemical shifts. A total of 169 loops were analyzed and classified into three types, namely fast loops with correlation times Web server (http://spin.ccic.ohio-state.edu/index.php/loop). The results demonstrate that loop dynamics with their time scales can be predicted rapidly with reasonable accuracy, which will allow the screening of average protein structures to help better understand the various roles loops can play in the context of protein-protein interactions and binding.

  10. Human learning: Power laws or multiple characteristic time scales?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gottfried Mayer-Kress

    2006-09-01

    Full Text Available The central proposal of A. Newell and Rosenbloom (1981 was that the power law is the ubiquitous law of learning. This proposition is discussed in the context of the key factors that led to the acceptance of the power law as the function of learning. We then outline the principles of an epigenetic landscape framework for considering the role of the characteristic time scales of learning and an approach to system identification of the processes of performance dynamics. In this view, the change of performance over time is the product of a superposition of characteristic exponential time scales that reflect the influence of different processes. This theoretical approach can reproduce the traditional power law of practice – within the experimental resolution of performance data sets - but we hypothesize that this function may prove to be a special and perhaps idealized case of learning.

  11. Real-time simulation of large-scale floods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Q.; Qin, Y.; Li, G. D.; Liu, Z.; Cheng, D. J.; Zhao, Y. H.

    2016-08-01

    According to the complex real-time water situation, the real-time simulation of large-scale floods is very important for flood prevention practice. Model robustness and running efficiency are two critical factors in successful real-time flood simulation. This paper proposed a robust, two-dimensional, shallow water model based on the unstructured Godunov- type finite volume method. A robust wet/dry front method is used to enhance the numerical stability. An adaptive method is proposed to improve the running efficiency. The proposed model is used for large-scale flood simulation on real topography. Results compared to those of MIKE21 show the strong performance of the proposed model.

  12. Association of bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation and survival according to ambulance response-times after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rajan, Shahzleen; Wissenberg, Mads; Folke, Fredrik

    2016-01-01

    30-day survival chances decreased for both patients with bystander CPR and those without. However, the contrast between the survival chances of patients with versus without bystander CPR increased over time: within 5 minutes, 30-day survival was 14.5% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 12.8-16.4) versus...... 6.3% (95% CI: 5.1-7.6), corresponding to 2.3 times higher chances of survival associated with bystander CPR; within 10 minutes, 30-day survival chances were 6.7% (95% CI: 5.4-8.1) versus 2.2% (95% CI: 1.5-3.1), corresponding to 3.0 times higher chances of 30-day survival associated with bystander...... CPR. The contrast in 30-day survival became statistically insignificant when response time was >13 minutes (bystander CPR vs no bystander CPR: 3.7% [95% CI: 2.2-5.4] vs 1.5% [95% CI: 0.6-2.7]), but 30-day survival was still 2.5 times higher associated with bystander CPR. Based on the model and Danish...

  13. Timing of adjuvant chemotherapy and its relation to survival among patients with stage III colon cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bos, A C R K; van Erning, F N; van Gestel, Y R B M; Creemers, G J M; Punt, C J A; van Oijen, M G H; Lemmens, V E P P

    2015-11-01

    Currently available data suggest that delaying the start of adjuvant chemotherapy in colon cancer patients has a detrimental effect on survival. We analysed which factors impact on the timing of adjuvant chemotherapy and evaluated the influence on overall survival (OS). Stage III colon cancer patients who underwent resection and received adjuvant chemotherapy between 2008 and 2013 were selected from the Netherlands Cancer Registry. Timing of adjuvant chemotherapy was subdivided into: ⩽ 4, 5-6, 7-8, 9-10, 11-12 and 13-16 weeks post-surgery. Multivariable regressions were performed to assess the influence of several factors on the probability of starting treatment within 8 weeks post-surgery and to evaluate the association of timing of adjuvant chemotherapy with 5-year OS. 6620 patients received adjuvant chemotherapy, 14% commenced after 8 weeks. Factors associated with starting treatment after 8 weeks were older age (Odds ratio (OR) 65-74 versus colon cancer patients within 8 weeks post-surgery. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Biologically-equivalent dose and long-term survival time in radiation treatments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaider, Marco; Hanin, Leonid

    2007-01-01

    Within the linear-quadratic model the biologically-effective dose (BED)-taken to represent treatments with an equal tumor control probability (TCP)-is commonly (and plausibly) calculated according to BED(D) = -log[S(D)]/α. We ask whether in the presence of cellular proliferation this claim is justified and examine, as a related question, the extent to which BED approximates an isoeffective dose (IED) defined, more sensibly, in terms of an equal long-term survival probability, rather than TCP. We derive, under the assumption that cellular birth and death rates are time homogeneous, exact equations for the isoeffective dose, IED. As well, we give a rigorous definition of effective long-term survival time, T eff . By using several sets of radiobiological parameters, we illustrate potential differences between BED and IED on the one hand and, on the other, between T eff calculated as suggested here or by an earlier recipe. In summary: (a) the equations currently in use for calculating the effective treatment time may underestimate the isoeffective dose and should be avoided. The same is the case for the tumor control probability (TCP), only more so; (b) for permanent implants BED may be a poor substitute for IED; (c) for a fractionated treatment schedule, interpreting the observed probability of cure in terms of a TCP formalism that refers to the end of the treatment (rather than T eff ) may result in a miscalculation (underestimation) of the initial number of clonogens

  15. Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data for Evaluating Orthostatic Tilt Test Performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. C.; Koslovsky, Matthew D.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

    2018-01-01

    Head-up tilt (HUT) tests often are used in research to measure orthostatic intolerance (OI) (inability to appropriately control blood pressure while upright) in clinical populations and otherwise healthy individuals after interventions. Post-space flight orthostatic intolerance is a well-known phenomenon, and countermeasures to its development has been an active area of research at NASA. In the NASA HUT protocol, subjects lie horizontally on an automatic tilt table for baseline measurements before being raised to 80deg head-up tilt for a defined period of time or until signs or symptoms of presyncope ensues (light-headedness, nausea, dizziness, sweating, weakness or fainting). Multiple measures are collected to evaluate the cardiovascular system's ability to respond appropriately to the orthostatic challenge. However if the intended duration of the HUT is short, the ability to detect changes in OI due to an intervention or its prevention by a countermeasure may be limited by a small number of failures to permit comparisons based on survival time alone. Thus, the time-trajectory of the cardiovascular data becomes an important additional source of information. In particular, we will show how various measures of trajectory variability can effectively augment survival analysis for the assessment of OI in a joint model when high censoring rates are present.

  16. Multi-Scale Dissemination of Time Series Data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Guo, Qingsong; Zhou, Yongluan; Su, Li

    2013-01-01

    In this paper, we consider the problem of continuous dissemination of time series data, such as sensor measurements, to a large number of subscribers. These subscribers fall into multiple subscription levels, where each subscription level is specified by the bandwidth constraint of a subscriber......, which is an abstract indicator for both the physical limits and the amount of data that the subscriber would like to handle. To handle this problem, we propose a system framework for multi-scale time series data dissemination that employs a typical tree-based dissemination network and existing time...

  17. Using Concurrent Cardiovascular Information to Augment Survival Time Data from Orthostatic Tilt Tests

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feiveson, Alan H.; Fiedler, James; Lee, Stuart M. M.; Westby, Christian M.; Stenger, Michael B.; Platts, Steven H.

    2014-01-01

    Orthostatic Intolerance (OI) is the propensity to develop symptoms of fainting during upright standing. OI is associated with changes in heart rate, blood pressure and other measures of cardiac function. Problem: NASA astronauts have shown increased susceptibility to OI on return from space missions. Current methods for counteracting OI in astronauts include fluid loading and the use of compression garments. Multivariate trajectory spread is greater as OI increases. Pairwise comparisons at the same time within subjects allows incorporation of pass/fail outcomes. Path length, convex hull area, and covariance matrix determinant do well as statistics to summarize this spread Missing data problems Time series analysis need many more time points per OTT session treatment of trend? how incorporate survival information?

  18. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P; Dreitz, Victoria J; Heisey, Dennis M

    2015-02-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  19. Integrated survival analysis using an event-time approach in a Bayesian framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walsh, Daniel P.; Dreitz, VJ; Heisey, Dennis M.

    2015-01-01

    Event-time or continuous-time statistical approaches have been applied throughout the biostatistical literature and have led to numerous scientific advances. However, these techniques have traditionally relied on knowing failure times. This has limited application of these analyses, particularly, within the ecological field where fates of marked animals may be unknown. To address these limitations, we developed an integrated approach within a Bayesian framework to estimate hazard rates in the face of unknown fates. We combine failure/survival times from individuals whose fates are known and times of which are interval-censored with information from those whose fates are unknown, and model the process of detecting animals with unknown fates. This provides the foundation for our integrated model and permits necessary parameter estimation. We provide the Bayesian model, its derivation, and use simulation techniques to investigate the properties and performance of our approach under several scenarios. Lastly, we apply our estimation technique using a piece-wise constant hazard function to investigate the effects of year, age, chick size and sex, sex of the tending adult, and nesting habitat on mortality hazard rates of the endangered mountain plover (Charadrius montanus) chicks. Traditional models were inappropriate for this analysis because fates of some individual chicks were unknown due to failed radio transmitters. Simulations revealed biases of posterior mean estimates were minimal (≤ 4.95%), and posterior distributions behaved as expected with RMSE of the estimates decreasing as sample sizes, detection probability, and survival increased. We determined mortality hazard rates for plover chicks were highest at birth weights and/or whose nest was within agricultural habitats. Based on its performance, our approach greatly expands the range of problems for which event-time analyses can be used by eliminating the need for having completely known fate data.

  20. Gene expression profiling of canine osteosarcoma reveals genes associated with short and long survival times

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rao Nagesha AS

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Gene expression profiling of spontaneous tumors in the dog offers a unique translational opportunity to identify prognostic biomarkers and signaling pathways that are common to both canine and human. Osteosarcoma (OS accounts for approximately 80% of all malignant bone tumors in the dog. Canine OS are highly comparable with their human counterpart with respect to histology, high metastatic rate and poor long-term survival. This study investigates the prognostic gene profile among thirty-two primary canine OS using canine specific cDNA microarrays representing 20,313 genes to identify genes and cellular signaling pathways associated with survival. This, the first report of its kind in dogs with OS, also demonstrates the advantages of cross-species comparison with human OS. Results The 32 tumors were classified into two prognostic groups based on survival time (ST. They were defined as short survivors (dogs with poor prognosis: surviving fewer than 6 months and long survivors (dogs with better prognosis: surviving 6 months or longer. Fifty-one transcripts were found to be differentially expressed, with common upregulation of these genes in the short survivors. The overexpressed genes in short survivors are associated with possible roles in proliferation, drug resistance or metastasis. Several deregulated pathways identified in the present study, including Wnt signaling, Integrin signaling and Chemokine/cytokine signaling are comparable to the pathway analysis conducted on human OS gene profiles, emphasizing the value of the dog as an excellent model for humans. Conclusion A molecular-based method for discrimination of outcome for short and long survivors is useful for future prognostic stratification at initial diagnosis, where genes and pathways associated with cell cycle/proliferation, drug resistance and metastasis could be potential targets for diagnosis and therapy. The similarities between human and canine OS makes the

  1. A model for AGN variability on multiple time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sartori, Lia F.; Schawinski, Kevin; Trakhtenbrot, Benny; Caplar, Neven; Treister, Ezequiel; Koss, Michael J.; Urry, C. Megan; Zhang, C. E.

    2018-05-01

    We present a framework to link and describe active galactic nuclei (AGN) variability on a wide range of time-scales, from days to billions of years. In particular, we concentrate on the AGN variability features related to changes in black hole fuelling and accretion rate. In our framework, the variability features observed in different AGN at different time-scales may be explained as realisations of the same underlying statistical properties. In this context, we propose a model to simulate the evolution of AGN light curves with time based on the probability density function (PDF) and power spectral density (PSD) of the Eddington ratio (L/LEdd) distribution. Motivated by general galaxy population properties, we propose that the PDF may be inspired by the L/LEdd distribution function (ERDF), and that a single (or limited number of) ERDF+PSD set may explain all observed variability features. After outlining the framework and the model, we compile a set of variability measurements in terms of structure function (SF) and magnitude difference. We then combine the variability measurements on a SF plot ranging from days to Gyr. The proposed framework enables constraints on the underlying PSD and the ability to link AGN variability on different time-scales, therefore providing new insights into AGN variability and black hole growth phenomena.

  2. Maternal and individual effects in selection of bed sites and their consequences for fawn survival at different spatial scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Moorter, Bram; Gaillard, Jean-Michel; McLoughlin, Philip D; Delorme, Daniel; Klein, François; Boyce, Mark S

    2009-03-01

    We examined the relationship between survival of roe deer (Capreolus capreolus) fawns at Trois Fontaines, Champagne-Ardennes, France, and factors related to bed-site selection (predator avoidance and thermoregulation) and maternal food resources (forage availability in the maternal home range). Previous studies have demonstrated that at small scales, the young of large herbivores select bed sites independently from their mothers, although this selection takes place within the limits of their mother's home range. Fawn survival was influenced largely by the availability of good bed sites within the maternal home range, not by the fawn's selection of bed sites; however, selection for thermal cover when selecting bed sites positively influenced survival of young fawns. Typical features of a good home range included close proximity to habitat edges, which is related to forage accessibility for roe deer. The availability of bed sites changed as fawns aged, probably due to an increased mobility of the fawn or a different use of the home range by the mother; sites offering high concealment and thermal protection became less available in favor of areas with higher forage accessibility. Despite the minor influence of bed-site selection on survival, roe deer fawns strongly selected their bed sites according to several environmental factors linked to predator avoidance and thermoregulation. Fawns selected for sites providing concealment, light penetration, and avoided signs of wild boar (Sus scrofa) activity. Avoidance of sites with high light penetration by young fawns positively affected their survival, confirming a negative effect on thermoregulation due to reduced thermal cover. Selection for light penetration by older fawns was less clear. We discuss these results in the context of cross-generational effects in habitat selection across multiple scales, and the potential influence of the 'ghost of predation past'.

  3. Selective visual scaling of time-scale processes facilitates broadband learning of isometric force frequency tracking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    King, Adam C; Newell, Karl M

    2015-10-01

    The experiment investigated the effect of selectively augmenting faster time scales of visual feedback information on the learning and transfer of continuous isometric force tracking tasks to test the generality of the self-organization of 1/f properties of force output. Three experimental groups tracked an irregular target pattern either under a standard fixed gain condition or with selectively enhancement in the visual feedback display of intermediate (4-8 Hz) or high (8-12 Hz) frequency components of the force output. All groups reduced tracking error over practice, with the error lowest in the intermediate scaling condition followed by the high scaling and fixed gain conditions, respectively. Selective visual scaling induced persistent changes across the frequency spectrum, with the strongest effect in the intermediate scaling condition and positive transfer to novel feedback displays. The findings reveal an interdependence of the timescales in the learning and transfer of isometric force output frequency structures consistent with 1/f process models of the time scales of motor output variability.

  4. Time scale of diffusion in molecular and cellular biology

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Holcman, D; Schuss, Z

    2014-01-01

    Diffusion is the driver of critical biological processes in cellular and molecular biology. The diverse temporal scales of cellular function are determined by vastly diverse spatial scales in most biophysical processes. The latter are due, among others, to small binding sites inside or on the cell membrane or to narrow passages between large cellular compartments. The great disparity in scales is at the root of the difficulty in quantifying cell function from molecular dynamics and from simulations. The coarse-grained time scale of cellular function is determined from molecular diffusion by the mean first passage time of molecular Brownian motion to a small targets or through narrow passages. The narrow escape theory (NET) concerns this issue. The NET is ubiquitous in molecular and cellular biology and is manifested, among others, in chemical reactions, in the calculation of the effective diffusion coefficient of receptors diffusing on a neuronal cell membrane strewn with obstacles, in the quantification of the early steps of viral trafficking, in the regulation of diffusion between the mother and daughter cells during cell division, and many other cases. Brownian trajectories can represent the motion of a molecule, a protein, an ion in solution, a receptor in a cell or on its membrane, and many other biochemical processes. The small target can represent a binding site or an ionic channel, a hidden active site embedded in a complex protein structure, a receptor for a neurotransmitter on the membrane of a neuron, and so on. The mean time to attach to a receptor or activator determines diffusion fluxes that are key regulators of cell function. This review describes physical models of various subcellular microdomains, in which the NET coarse-grains the molecular scale to a higher cellular-level, thus clarifying the role of cell geometry in determining subcellular function. (topical review)

  5. Time scale of diffusion in molecular and cellular biology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holcman, D.; Schuss, Z.

    2014-05-01

    Diffusion is the driver of critical biological processes in cellular and molecular biology. The diverse temporal scales of cellular function are determined by vastly diverse spatial scales in most biophysical processes. The latter are due, among others, to small binding sites inside or on the cell membrane or to narrow passages between large cellular compartments. The great disparity in scales is at the root of the difficulty in quantifying cell function from molecular dynamics and from simulations. The coarse-grained time scale of cellular function is determined from molecular diffusion by the mean first passage time of molecular Brownian motion to a small targets or through narrow passages. The narrow escape theory (NET) concerns this issue. The NET is ubiquitous in molecular and cellular biology and is manifested, among others, in chemical reactions, in the calculation of the effective diffusion coefficient of receptors diffusing on a neuronal cell membrane strewn with obstacles, in the quantification of the early steps of viral trafficking, in the regulation of diffusion between the mother and daughter cells during cell division, and many other cases. Brownian trajectories can represent the motion of a molecule, a protein, an ion in solution, a receptor in a cell or on its membrane, and many other biochemical processes. The small target can represent a binding site or an ionic channel, a hidden active site embedded in a complex protein structure, a receptor for a neurotransmitter on the membrane of a neuron, and so on. The mean time to attach to a receptor or activator determines diffusion fluxes that are key regulators of cell function. This review describes physical models of various subcellular microdomains, in which the NET coarse-grains the molecular scale to a higher cellular-level, thus clarifying the role of cell geometry in determining subcellular function.

  6. Exposure to aged crumb rubber reduces survival time during a stress test in earthworms (Eisenia fetida).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pochron, Sharon; Nikakis, Jacqueline; Illuzzi, Kyra; Baatz, Andrea; Demirciyan, Loriana; Dhillon, Amritjot; Gaylor, Thomas; Manganaro, Alexa; Maritato, Nicholas; Moawad, Michael; Singh, Rajwinder; Tucker, Clara; Vaughan, Daniel

    2018-04-01

    Solid waste management struggles with the sustainable disposal of used tires. One solution involves shredding used tires into crumb rubber and using the material as infill for artificial turf. However, crumb rubber contains hydrocarbons, organic compounds, and heavy metals, and it travels into the environment. Earthworms living in soil contaminated with virgin crumb rubber gained 14% less body weight than did earthworms living in uncontaminated soil, but the impact of aged crumb rubber on the earthworms is unknown. Since many athletic fields contain aged crumb rubber, we compared the body weight, survivorship, and longevity in heat and light stress for earthworms living in clean topsoil to those living in topsoil contaminated with aged crumb rubber. We also characterized levels of metals, nutrients, and micronutrients of both soil treatments and compared those to published values for soil contaminated with virgin crumb rubber. Consistent with earlier research, we found that contaminated soil did not inhibit microbial respiration rates. Aged crumb rubber, like new crumb rubber, had high levels of zinc. However, while exposure to aged crumb rubber did not reduce earthworm body weight as did exposure to new crumb rubber, exposure to aged crumb rubber reduced earthworm survival time during a stress test by a statistically significant 38 min (16.2%) relative to the survival time for worms that had lived in clean soil. Aged crumb rubber and new crumb rubber appear to pose similar toxic risks to earthworms. This study suggests an environmental cost associated with the current tire-recycling solution.

  7. HMC algorithm with multiple time scale integration and mass preconditioning

    Science.gov (United States)

    Urbach, C.; Jansen, K.; Shindler, A.; Wenger, U.

    2006-01-01

    We present a variant of the HMC algorithm with mass preconditioning (Hasenbusch acceleration) and multiple time scale integration. We have tested this variant for standard Wilson fermions at β=5.6 and at pion masses ranging from 380 to 680 MeV. We show that in this situation its performance is comparable to the recently proposed HMC variant with domain decomposition as preconditioner. We give an update of the "Berlin Wall" figure, comparing the performance of our variant of the HMC algorithm to other published performance data. Advantages of the HMC algorithm with mass preconditioning and multiple time scale integration are that it is straightforward to implement and can be used in combination with a wide variety of lattice Dirac operators.

  8. Nonlinear MHD dynamics of tokamak plasmas on multiple time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kruger, S.E.; Schnack, D.D.; Brennan, D.P.; Gianakon, T.A.; Sovinec, C.R.

    2003-01-01

    Two types of numerical, nonlinear simulations using the NIMROD code are presented. In the first simulation, we model the disruption occurring in DIII-D discharge 87009 as an ideal MHD instability driven unstable by neutral-beam heating. The mode grows faster than exponential, but on a time scale that is a hybrid of the heating rate and the ideal MHD growth rate as predicted by analytic theory. The second type of simulations, which occur on a much longer time scale, focus on the seeding of tearing modes by sawteeth. Pressure effects play a role both in the exterior region solutions and in the neoclassical drive terms. The results of both simulations are reviewed and their implications for experimental analysis is discussed. (author)

  9. The length and time scales of water's glass transitions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limmer, David T.

    2014-06-01

    Using a general model for the equilibrium dynamics of supercooled liquids, I compute from molecular properties the emergent length and time scales that govern the nonequilibrium relaxation behavior of amorphous ice prepared by rapid cooling. Upon cooling, the liquid water falls out of equilibrium whereby the temperature dependence of its relaxation time is predicted to change from super-Arrhenius to Arrhenius. A consequence of this crossover is that the location of the apparent glass transition temperature depends logarithmically on cooling rate. Accompanying vitrification is the emergence of a dynamical length-scale, the size of which depends on the cooling rate and varies between angstroms and tens of nanometers. While this protocol dependence clarifies a number of previous experimental observations for amorphous ice, the arguments are general and can be extended to other glass forming liquids.

  10. The length and time scales of water's glass transitions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Limmer, David T

    2014-06-07

    Using a general model for the equilibrium dynamics of supercooled liquids, I compute from molecular properties the emergent length and time scales that govern the nonequilibrium relaxation behavior of amorphous ice prepared by rapid cooling. Upon cooling, the liquid water falls out of equilibrium whereby the temperature dependence of its relaxation time is predicted to change from super-Arrhenius to Arrhenius. A consequence of this crossover is that the location of the apparent glass transition temperature depends logarithmically on cooling rate. Accompanying vitrification is the emergence of a dynamical length-scale, the size of which depends on the cooling rate and varies between angstroms and tens of nanometers. While this protocol dependence clarifies a number of previous experimental observations for amorphous ice, the arguments are general and can be extended to other glass forming liquids.

  11. Frozen in Time? Microbial strategies for survival and carbon metabolism over geologic time in a Pleistocene permafrost chronosequence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mackelprang, R.; Douglas, T. A.; Waldrop, M. P.

    2014-12-01

    Permafrost soils have received tremendous interest due to their importance as a global carbon store with the potential to be thawed over the coming centuries. Instead of being 'frozen in time,' permafrost contains active microbes. Most metagenomic studies have focused on Holocene aged permafrost. Here, we target Pleistocene aged ice and carbon rich permafrost (Yedoma), which can differ in carbon content and stage of decay. Our aim was to understand how microbes in the permafrost transform organic matter over geologic time and to identify physiological and biochemical adaptations that enable long-term survival. We used next-generation sequencing to characterize microbial communities along a permafrost age gradient. Samples were collected from the Cold Regions Research and Engineering Laboratory (CRREL) Permafrost Tunnel near Fox, AK, which penetrates a hillside providing access to permafrost ranging in age from 12 to 40 kyr. DNA was extracted directly from unthawed samples. 16S rRNA amplicon (16S) and shotgun metagenome sequencing revealed significant age-driven differences. First, microbial diversity declines with permafrost age, likely due to long-term exposure to environmental stresses and a reduction in metabolic resources. Second, we observed taxonomic differences among ages, with an increasing abundance of Firmicutes (endospore-formers) in older samples, suggesting that dormancy is a common survival strategy in older permafrost. Ordination of 16S and metagenome data revealed age-based clustering. Genes differing significantly between age categories included those involved in lipopolysaccharide assembly, cold-response, and carbon processing. These data point to the physiological adaptations to long-term frozen conditions and to the metabolic processes utilized in ancient permafrost. In fact, a gene common in older samples is involved in cadaverine production, which could potentially explain the putrefied smell of Pleistocene aged permafrost. Coupled with soil

  12. The fission time scale measured with an atomic clock

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kravchuk, VL; Wilschut, HW; Hunyadi, M; Kopecky, S; Lohner, H; Rogachevskiy, A; Siemssen, RH; Krasznahorkay, A; Hamilton, JH; Ramayya, AV; Carter, HK

    2003-01-01

    We present a new direct method of measuring the fission absolute time scale using an atomic clock based on the lifetime of a vacancy in the atomic K-shell. We studied the reaction Ne-20 + Th-232 -> O-16 + U-236* at 30 MeV/u. The excitation energy of about 115 MeV in such a reaction is in the range

  13. Evaluating time to cancer recurrence as a surrogate marker for survival from an information theory perspective.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alonso, Ariel; Molenberghs, Geert

    2008-10-01

    The last two decades have seen a lot of development in the area of surrogate marker validation. One of these approaches places the evaluation in a meta-analytic framework, leading to definitions in terms of trial- and individual-level association. A drawback of this methodology is that different settings have led to different measures at the individual level. Using information theory, Alonso et al. proposed a unified framework, leading to a new definition of surrogacy, which offers interpretational advantages and is applicable in a wide range of situations. In this work, we illustrate how this information-theoretic approach can be used to evaluate surrogacy when both endpoints are of a time-to-event type. Two meta-analyses, in early and advanced colon cancer, respectively, are then used to evaluate the performance of time to cancer recurrence as a surrogate for overall survival.

  14. Diffusion time scales and accretion in the sun

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michaud, G.

    1977-01-01

    It is thought that surface abundances in the Sun could be due largely to accretion either of comets or grains, and it has been suggested that if surface convection zones were smaller than is usually indicated by model calculations, accretion would be especially important. Unless the zone immediately below the surface convection zone is sufficiently stable for diffusion to be important, other transport processes, such as turbulence and meridional circulation, more efficient than diffusion, will tend to homogenise the Sun. Diffusion is the slowest of the transport processes and will become important when other transport processes become inoperative. Using diffusion theory the minimum mass of the convection zone can be determined in order that transport processes at the bottom of the zone are not to influence abundances in the convection zone. If diffusion time scales are shorter than the life of the star (Sun) diffusion will modify the abundances in the convection zone. The mass in the convection zone for which diffusion time scales are equal to the life of the star on the main sequence then determines the minimum mass in the convection zone that justifies neglect of transport processes at the bottom of the convection zone. It is calculated here that, for the Sun, this mass is between 3 x 10 -3 and 10 -2 solar mass, and a general explosion is derived for the diffusion time scale as a function of the mass of the convection zone. (U.K.)

  15. Backpropagation and ordered derivatives in the time scales calculus.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Seiffertt, John; Wunsch, Donald C

    2010-08-01

    Backpropagation is the most widely used neural network learning technique. It is based on the mathematical notion of an ordered derivative. In this paper, we present a formulation of ordered derivatives and the backpropagation training algorithm using the important emerging area of mathematics known as the time scales calculus. This calculus, with its potential for application to a wide variety of inter-disciplinary problems, is becoming a key area of mathematics. It is capable of unifying continuous and discrete analysis within one coherent theoretical framework. Using this calculus, we present here a generalization of backpropagation which is appropriate for cases beyond the specifically continuous or discrete. We develop a new multivariate chain rule of this calculus, define ordered derivatives on time scales, prove a key theorem about them, and derive the backpropagation weight update equations for a feedforward multilayer neural network architecture. By drawing together the time scales calculus and the area of neural network learning, we present the first connection of two major fields of research.

  16. Preoperative diffusion-weighted imaging of single brain metastases correlates with patient survival times.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Anna Sophie Berghoff

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: MRI-based diffusion-weighted imaging (DWI visualizes the local differences in water diffusion in vivo. The prognostic value of DWI signal intensities on the source images and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC maps respectively has not yet been studied in brain metastases (BM. METHODS: We included into this retrospective analysis all patients operated for single BM at our institution between 2002 and 2010, in whom presurgical DWI and BM tissue samples were available. We recorded relevant clinical data, assessed DWI signal intensity and apparent diffusion coefficient (ADC values and performed histopathological analysis of BM tissues. Statistical analyses including uni- and multivariate survival analyses were performed. RESULTS: 65 patients (34 female, 31 male with a median overall survival time (OS of 15 months (range 0-99 months were available for this study. 19 (29.2% patients presented with hyper-, 3 (4.6% with iso-, and 43 (66.2% with hypointense DWI. ADCmean values could be determined in 32 (49.2% patients, ranged from 456.4 to 1691.8*10⁻⁶ mm²/s (median 969.5 and showed a highly significant correlation with DWI signal intensity. DWI hyperintensity correlated significantly with high amount of interstitial reticulin deposition. In univariate analysis, patients with hyperintense DWI (5 months and low ADCmean values (7 months had significantly worse OS than patients with iso/hypointense DWI (16 months and high ADCmean values (30 months, respectively. In multivariate survival analysis, high ADCmean values retained independent statistical significance. CONCLUSIONS: Preoperative DWI findings strongly and independently correlate with OS in patients operated for single BM and are related to interstitial fibrosis. Inclusion of DWI parameters into established risk stratification scores for BM patients should be considered.

  17. Atomistic simulations of graphite etching at realistic time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aussems, D U B; Bal, K M; Morgan, T W; van de Sanden, M C M; Neyts, E C

    2017-10-01

    Hydrogen-graphite interactions are relevant to a wide variety of applications, ranging from astrophysics to fusion devices and nano-electronics. In order to shed light on these interactions, atomistic simulation using Molecular Dynamics (MD) has been shown to be an invaluable tool. It suffers, however, from severe time-scale limitations. In this work we apply the recently developed Collective Variable-Driven Hyperdynamics (CVHD) method to hydrogen etching of graphite for varying inter-impact times up to a realistic value of 1 ms, which corresponds to a flux of ∼10 20 m -2 s -1 . The results show that the erosion yield, hydrogen surface coverage and species distribution are significantly affected by the time between impacts. This can be explained by the higher probability of C-C bond breaking due to the prolonged exposure to thermal stress and the subsequent transition from ion- to thermal-induced etching. This latter regime of thermal-induced etching - chemical erosion - is here accessed for the first time using atomistic simulations. In conclusion, this study demonstrates that accounting for long time-scales significantly affects ion bombardment simulations and should not be neglected in a wide range of conditions, in contrast to what is typically assumed.

  18. Stability theory for dynamic equations on time scales

    CERN Document Server

    Martynyuk, Anatoly A

    2016-01-01

    This monograph is a first in the world to present three approaches for stability analysis of solutions of dynamic equations. The first approach is based on the application of dynamic integral inequalities and the fundamental matrix of solutions of linear approximation of dynamic equations. The second is based on the generalization of the direct Lyapunovs method for equations on time scales, using scalar, vector and matrix-valued auxiliary functions. The third approach is the application of auxiliary functions (scalar, vector, or matrix-valued ones) in combination with differential dynamic inequalities. This is an alternative comparison method, developed for time continuous and time discrete systems. In recent decades, automatic control theory in the study of air- and spacecraft dynamics and in other areas of modern applied mathematics has encountered problems in the analysis of the behavior of solutions of time continuous-discrete linear and/or nonlinear equations of perturbed motion. In the book “Men of Ma...

  19. Quantum universe on extremely small space-time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuzmichev, V.E.; Kuzmichev, V.V.

    2010-01-01

    The semiclassical approach to the quantum geometrodynamical model is used for the description of the properties of the Universe on extremely small space-time scales. Under this approach, the matter in the Universe has two components of the quantum nature which behave as antigravitating fluids. The first component does not vanish in the limit h → 0 and can be associated with dark energy. The second component is described by an extremely rigid equation of state and goes to zero after the transition to large spacetime scales. On small space-time scales, this quantum correction turns out to be significant. It determines the geometry of the Universe near the initial cosmological singularity point. This geometry is conformal to a unit four-sphere embedded in a five-dimensional Euclidean flat space. During the consequent expansion of the Universe, when reaching the post-Planck era, the geometry of the Universe changes into that conformal to a unit four-hyperboloid in a five-dimensional Lorentzsignatured flat space. This agrees with the hypothesis about the possible change of geometry after the origin of the expanding Universe from the region near the initial singularity point. The origin of the Universe can be interpreted as a quantum transition of the system from a region in the phase space forbidden for the classical motion, but where a trajectory in imaginary time exists, into a region, where the equations of motion have the solution which describes the evolution of the Universe in real time. Near the boundary between two regions, from the side of real time, the Universe undergoes almost an exponential expansion which passes smoothly into the expansion under the action of radiation dominating over matter which is described by the standard cosmological model.

  20. Scale and time dependence of serial correlations in word-length time series of written texts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodriguez, E.; Aguilar-Cornejo, M.; Femat, R.; Alvarez-Ramirez, J.

    2014-11-01

    This work considered the quantitative analysis of large written texts. To this end, the text was converted into a time series by taking the sequence of word lengths. The detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA) was used for characterizing long-range serial correlations of the time series. To this end, the DFA was implemented within a rolling window framework for estimating the variations of correlations, quantified in terms of the scaling exponent, strength along the text. Also, a filtering derivative was used to compute the dependence of the scaling exponent relative to the scale. The analysis was applied to three famous English-written literary narrations; namely, Alice in Wonderland (by Lewis Carrol), Dracula (by Bram Stoker) and Sense and Sensibility (by Jane Austen). The results showed that high correlations appear for scales of about 50-200 words, suggesting that at these scales the text contains the stronger coherence. The scaling exponent was not constant along the text, showing important variations with apparent cyclical behavior. An interesting coincidence between the scaling exponent variations and changes in narrative units (e.g., chapters) was found. This suggests that the scaling exponent obtained from the DFA is able to detect changes in narration structure as expressed by the usage of words of different lengths.

  1. Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

    2018-01-01

    In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

  2. Survival analysis using S analysis of time-to-event data

    CERN Document Server

    Tableman, Mara

    2003-01-01

    Survival Analysis Using S: Analysis of Time-to-Event Data is designed as a text for a one-semester or one-quarter course in survival analysis for upper-level or graduate students in statistics, biostatistics, and epidemiology. Prerequisites are a standard pre-calculus first course in probability and statistics, and a course in applied linear regression models. No prior knowledge of S or R is assumed. A wide choice of exercises is included, some intended for more advanced students with a first course in mathematical statistics. The authors emphasize parametric log-linear models, while also detailing nonparametric procedures along with model building and data diagnostics. Medical and public health researchers will find the discussion of cut point analysis with bootstrap validation, competing risks and the cumulative incidence estimator, and the analysis of left-truncated and right-censored data invaluable. The bootstrap procedure checks robustness of cut point analysis and determines cut point(s). In a chapter ...

  3. Survival with Three-Times Weekly In-Center Nocturnal Versus Conventional Hemodialysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jianglin; Suri, Rita S.; Nesrallah, Gihad; Lindsay, Robert; Garg, Amit X.; Lester, Keith; Ofsthun, Norma; Lazarus, Michael; Hakim, Raymond M.

    2012-01-01

    Whether the duration of hemodialysis treatments improves outcomes remains controversial. Here, we evaluated survival and clinical changes associated with converting from conventional hemodialysis (mean=3.75 h/treatment) to in-center nocturnal hemodialysis (mean=7.85 h/treatment). All 959 consecutive patients who initiated nocturnal hemodialysis for the first time in 77 Fresenius Medical Care facilities during 2006 and 2007 were eligible. We used Cox models to compare risk for mortality during 2 years of follow-up in a 1:3 propensity score–matched cohort of 746 nocturnal and 2062 control patients on conventional hemodialysis. Two-year mortality was 19% among nocturnal hemodialysis patients compared with 27% among conventional patients. Nocturnal hemodialysis associated with a 25% reduction in the risk for death after adjustment for age, body mass index, and dialysis vintage (hazard ratio=0.75, 95% confidence interval=0.61–0.91, P=0.004). With respect to clinical features, interdialytic weight gain, albumin, hemoglobin, dialysis dose, and calcium increased on nocturnal therapy, whereas postdialysis weight, predialysis systolic blood pressure, ultrafiltration rate, phosphorus, and white blood cell count declined (all P<0.001). In summary, notwithstanding the possibility of residual selection bias, conversion to treatment with nocturnal hemodialysis associates with favorable clinical features, laboratory biomarkers, and improved survival compared with propensity score–matched controls. The potential impact of extended treatment time on clinical outcomes while maintaining a three times per week hemodialysis schedule requires evaluation in future clinical trials. PMID:22362905

  4. Impact of latency time on survival for adolescents and young adults with a second primary malignancy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goldfarb, Melanie; Rosenberg, Aaron S; Li, Qian; Keegan, Theresa H M

    2018-03-15

    The adverse impact of second primary malignancies (SPMs) on survival is substantial for adolescents and young adults (AYAs; ie, those 15-39 years old). No studies have evaluated whether the latency time between the first malignancy (the primary malignancy [PM]) and the SPM affects cancer-specific survival (CSS). A multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression with Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data for 13 regions from 1992 to 2008 was used to ascertain whether the latency time (1-5 vs ≥ 6 years) to the development of an SPM affected the CSS and overall survival with respect to either the PM or SPM for AYAs with common SPMs. The majority of 1515 AYAs with an SPM had their PM diagnosed between the ages of 26 and 39 years (74.2%) and an SPM diagnosed within 1 to 5 years (72.9%) of the PM's diagnosis. Overall, AYAs that developed an SPM 1 to 5 years after the diagnosis (vs ≥ 6 years) had an increased risk of death from cancer (hazard ratio [HR], 2.52; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.92-3.29) as well as any cause (HR, 2.60; 95% CI, 2.04-3.32). Specifically, for AYAs with an SPM that was leukemia or a colorectal, breast, or central nervous system malignancy, a shorter latency time (1-5 years) from their PM diagnosis was associated with an overall significantly increased risk of death (2.6-fold) from either their PM or that particular SPM. However, latency did not appear to affect the CSS with respect to either the PM or SPM for AYA patients with a lymphoma or sarcoma SPM. Most AYAs who develop an SPM do so within 1 to 5 years of their primary cancer diagnosis, and they have an increased risk of death from cancer in comparison with AYAs with an SPM developing after longer survivorship intervals. Cancer 2018;124:1260-8. © 2017 American Cancer Society. © 2017 American Cancer Society.

  5. Splenectomy increases the survival time of heart allograft via developing immune tolerance

    Science.gov (United States)

    2013-01-01

    Background The spleen is an active lymphoid organ. The effect of splenectomy on the immune response remains unclear. This study investigated whether splenectomy can induce immune tolerance and has a beneficial role in cardiac allograft. Methods Wistar rats were used for heart donors. The Sprague–Dawley (SD) rats designated as the recipients of heart transplantation (HT) were randomly assigned into four groups: sham, splenectomy, HT, splenectomy + HT. The survival of transplanted hearts was assessed by daily checking of abdominal palpation. At various time points after transplantation, the transplanted hearts were collected and histologically examined; the level of CD4+CD25+ T regulatory lymphocytes (Tregs) and rate of lymphocyte apoptosis (annexin-v+ PI+ cells) in the blood were analyzed by using flow cytometric method. Results 1) Splenectomy significantly prolonged the mean survival time of heart allografts (7 ± 1.1 days and 27 ± 1.5 days for HT and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 12-14/group, HT vs. splenectomy + HT, p Splenectomy delayed pathological changes (inflammatory cell infiltration, myocardial damage) of the transplanted hearts in splenectomy + HT rats; 3) The level of CD4+CD25+ Tregs in the blood of splenectomized rats was significantly increased within 7 days (2.4 ± 0.5%, 4.9 ± 1.3% and 5.3 ± 1.0% for sham, splenectomy and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 15/group, sham vs. splenectomy or splenectomy + HT, p splenectomy surgery and gradually decreased to baseline level; 4) Splenectomy increased the rate of lymphocyte apoptosis (day 7: 0.3 ± 0.05%, 3.9 ± 0.9% and 4.1 ± 0.9% for sham, splenectomy and splenectomy + HT, respectively; n = 15/group, sham vs. splenectomy or splenectomy + HT, p Splenectomy inhibits the development of pathology and prolongs the survival time of cardiac allograft. The responsible mechanism is associated with induction of immune

  6. A hierarchy of time-scales and the brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kiebel, Stefan J; Daunizeau, Jean; Friston, Karl J

    2008-11-01

    In this paper, we suggest that cortical anatomy recapitulates the temporal hierarchy that is inherent in the dynamics of environmental states. Many aspects of brain function can be understood in terms of a hierarchy of temporal scales at which representations of the environment evolve. The lowest level of this hierarchy corresponds to fast fluctuations associated with sensory processing, whereas the highest levels encode slow contextual changes in the environment, under which faster representations unfold. First, we describe a mathematical model that exploits the temporal structure of fast sensory input to track the slower trajectories of their underlying causes. This model of sensory encoding or perceptual inference establishes a proof of concept that slowly changing neuronal states can encode the paths or trajectories of faster sensory states. We then review empirical evidence that suggests that a temporal hierarchy is recapitulated in the macroscopic organization of the cortex. This anatomic-temporal hierarchy provides a comprehensive framework for understanding cortical function: the specific time-scale that engages a cortical area can be inferred by its location along a rostro-caudal gradient, which reflects the anatomical distance from primary sensory areas. This is most evident in the prefrontal cortex, where complex functions can be explained as operations on representations of the environment that change slowly. The framework provides predictions about, and principled constraints on, cortical structure-function relationships, which can be tested by manipulating the time-scales of sensory input.

  7. A hierarchy of time-scales and the brain.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stefan J Kiebel

    2008-11-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we suggest that cortical anatomy recapitulates the temporal hierarchy that is inherent in the dynamics of environmental states. Many aspects of brain function can be understood in terms of a hierarchy of temporal scales at which representations of the environment evolve. The lowest level of this hierarchy corresponds to fast fluctuations associated with sensory processing, whereas the highest levels encode slow contextual changes in the environment, under which faster representations unfold. First, we describe a mathematical model that exploits the temporal structure of fast sensory input to track the slower trajectories of their underlying causes. This model of sensory encoding or perceptual inference establishes a proof of concept that slowly changing neuronal states can encode the paths or trajectories of faster sensory states. We then review empirical evidence that suggests that a temporal hierarchy is recapitulated in the macroscopic organization of the cortex. This anatomic-temporal hierarchy provides a comprehensive framework for understanding cortical function: the specific time-scale that engages a cortical area can be inferred by its location along a rostro-caudal gradient, which reflects the anatomical distance from primary sensory areas. This is most evident in the prefrontal cortex, where complex functions can be explained as operations on representations of the environment that change slowly. The framework provides predictions about, and principled constraints on, cortical structure-function relationships, which can be tested by manipulating the time-scales of sensory input.

  8. Decay of surface nanostructures via long-time-scale dynamics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voter, A.F.; Stanciu, N.

    1998-01-01

    This is the final report of a three-year, Laboratory Directed Research and Development (LDRD) project at the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The authors have developed a new approach for extending the time scale of molecular dynamics simulations. For infrequent-event systems, the category that includes most diffusive events in the solid phase, this hyperdynamics method can extend the simulation time by a few orders of magnitude compared to direct molecular dynamics. The trajectory is run on a potential surface that has been biased to raise the energy in the potential basins without affecting the transition state region. The method is described and applied to surface and bulk diffusion processes, achieving microsecond and millisecond simulation times. The authors have also developed a new parallel computing method that is efficient for small system sizes. The combination of the hyperdynamics with this parallel replica dynamics looks promising as a general materials simulation tool

  9. Time scaling internal state predictive control of a solar plant

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Silva, R.N. [DEE-FCT/UNL, Caparica (Portugal); Rato, L.M. [INESC-ID/University, Evora (Portugal); Lemos, J.M. [INESC-ID/IST, Lisboa (Portugal)

    2003-12-01

    The control of a distributed collector solar field is addressed in this work, exploiting the plant's transport characteristic. The plant is modeled by a hyperbolic type partial differential equation (PDE) where the transport speed is the manipulated flow, i.e. the controller output. The model has an external distributed source, which is the solar radiation captured along the collector, approximated to depend only of time. From the solution of the PDE, a linear discrete state space model is obtained by using time-scaling and the redefinition of the control input. This method allows overcoming the dependency of the time constants with the operating point. A model-based predictive adaptive controller is derived with the internal temperature distribution estimated with a state observer. Experimental results at the solar power plant are presented, illustrating the advantages of the approach under consideration. (author)

  10. Modelling survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ashauer, Roman; Albert, Carlo; Augustine, Starrlight

    2016-01-01

    The General Unified Threshold model for Survival (GUTS) integrates previously published toxicokinetic-toxicodynamic models and estimates survival with explicitly defined assumptions. Importantly, GUTS accounts for time-variable exposure to the stressor. We performed three studies to test...

  11. Survival time of bacteria on different plastics by application of ultraviolet rays and desinfectants

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Glueck, S.

    1975-01-01

    The survival times of four sorts of germs were studied (Staph. albus, Staph. aureus, E.coli and Clebsiella) on 28 different plastic surfaces under different ambient conditions, (darkness, daylight, UV-radiation) and after preceding disinfection of the surfaces. For these studies, a formaldehydecontaining, phenolic, and a surface-active preparation were used. No essential differences in the survival times of the 4 types of germs tested were found. Besides the chemical basic structure additional substances were found to play a substantial role for the autobactericides. The dark values which could help to obtain findings about auto-bactericides did not show significant correspondence within the groups of the plastics. Only for a few materials a safe auto-bactericide could be found (alkyd lake, phenol resin). In the case of some other substances (some preparations made of PVC, polystyrene, polyacetal) an effect on the germs could be seen which was, at least totally seen, unfavourable, if all test conditions (darkness, daylight, UV-radiation) are viewed as a total. As comparative values on glass had shown a lower lethal rate of the germs, a certain auto-bactericide is likely to exist in all plastics tested. A considerable antibacterial effect of daylight was found, even with low daylight quotients and clased windows. UV-rays also diminished the number of germs on the plastic surfaces considerably, even with only indirect irradiation. Delayed effects of desinfecting agents partially depend on the surface material. Thus the phenolic agent showed strong delayed effects on the acryl glas, polyethylene, phenol resin, polycarbonate, but less on PVC. Phormaldehyde showed a good long-term effect only on phenol resin. (orig.) [de

  12. Multiple time-scale methods in particle simulations of plasmas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cohen, B.I.

    1985-01-01

    This paper surveys recent advances in the application of multiple time-scale methods to particle simulation of collective phenomena in plasmas. These methods dramatically improve the efficiency of simulating low-frequency kinetic behavior by allowing the use of a large timestep, while retaining accuracy. The numerical schemes surveyed provide selective damping of unwanted high-frequency waves and preserve numerical stability in a variety of physics models: electrostatic, magneto-inductive, Darwin and fully electromagnetic. The paper reviews hybrid simulation models, the implicitmoment-equation method, the direct implicit method, orbit averaging, and subcycling

  13. Continent-scale global change attribution in European birds - combining annual and decadal time scales

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jørgensen, Peter Søgaard; Böhning-Gaese, Katrin; Thorup, Kasper

    2016-01-01

    foundation for attributing species responses to global change may be achieved by complementing an attributes-based approach by one estimating the relationship between repeated measures of organismal and environmental changes over short time scales. To assess the benefit of this multiscale perspective, we...... on or in the peak of the breeding season with the largest effect sizes observed in cooler parts of species' climatic ranges. Our results document the potential of combining time scales and integrating both species attributes and environmental variables for global change attribution. We suggest such an approach......Species attributes are commonly used to infer impacts of environmental change on multiyear species trends, e.g. decadal changes in population size. However, by themselves attributes are of limited value in global change attribution since they do not measure the changing environment. A broader...

  14. Cross-Scale Modelling of Subduction from Minute to Million of Years Time Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sobolev, S. V.; Muldashev, I. A.

    2015-12-01

    Subduction is an essentially multi-scale process with time-scales spanning from geological to earthquake scale with the seismic cycle in-between. Modelling of such process constitutes one of the largest challenges in geodynamic modelling today.Here we present a cross-scale thermomechanical model capable of simulating the entire subduction process from rupture (1 min) to geological time (millions of years) that employs elasticity, mineral-physics-constrained non-linear transient viscous rheology and rate-and-state friction plasticity. The model generates spontaneous earthquake sequences. The adaptive time-step algorithm recognizes moment of instability and drops the integration time step to its minimum value of 40 sec during the earthquake. The time step is then gradually increased to its maximal value of 5 yr, following decreasing displacement rates during the postseismic relaxation. Efficient implementation of numerical techniques allows long-term simulations with total time of millions of years. This technique allows to follow in details deformation process during the entire seismic cycle and multiple seismic cycles. We observe various deformation patterns during modelled seismic cycle that are consistent with surface GPS observations and demonstrate that, contrary to the conventional ideas, the postseismic deformation may be controlled by viscoelastic relaxation in the mantle wedge, starting within only a few hours after the great (M>9) earthquakes. Interestingly, in our model an average slip velocity at the fault closely follows hyperbolic decay law. In natural observations, such deformation is interpreted as an afterslip, while in our model it is caused by the viscoelastic relaxation of mantle wedge with viscosity strongly varying with time. We demonstrate that our results are consistent with the postseismic surface displacement after the Great Tohoku Earthquake for the day-to-year time range. We will also present results of the modeling of deformation of the

  15. Fine Scale Baleen Whale Behavior Observed Via Tagging Over Daily Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-09-30

    system to do a comparison between the two. While at Wildlife Computers, I also asked for and they kindly provided a small change in how their MK10...cetacean behavior at intermediate daily time scales. Recent efforts to assess the impacts of sound on marine mammals and to estimate foraging ...efficiency have called for the need to measure daily activity budgets to quantify how much of each day an individual devotes to foraging , resting

  16. PSO-Based Robot Path Planning for Multisurvivor Rescue in Limited Survival Time

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Geng

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Since the strength of a trapped person often declines with time in urgent and dangerous circumstances, adopting a robot to rescue as many survivors as possible in limited time is of considerable significance. However, as one key issue in robot navigation, how to plan an optimal rescue path of a robot has not yet been fully solved. This paper studies robot path planning for multisurvivor rescue in limited survival time using a representative heuristic, particle swarm optimization (PSO. First, the robot path planning problem including multiple survivors is formulated as a discrete optimization one with high constraint, where the number of rescued persons is taken as the unique objective function, and the strength of a trapped person is used to constrain the feasibility of a path. Then, a new integer PSO algorithm is presented to solve the mathematical model, and several new operations, such as the update of a particle, the insertion and inversion operators, and the rapidly local search method, are incorporated into the proposed algorithm to improve its effectiveness. Finally, the simulation results demonstrate the capacity of our method in generating optimal paths with high quality.

  17. Superconducting fluctuations and characteristic time scales in amorphous WSi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaofu; Lita, Adriana E.; Sidorova, Mariia; Verma, Varun B.; Wang, Qiang; Nam, Sae Woo; Semenov, Alexei; Schilling, Andreas

    2018-05-01

    We study magnitudes and temperature dependencies of the electron-electron and electron-phonon interaction times which play the dominant role in the formation and relaxation of photon-induced hotspots in two-dimensional amorphous WSi films. The time constants are obtained through magnetoconductance measurements in a perpendicular magnetic field in the superconducting fluctuation regime and through time-resolved photoresponse to optical pulses. The excess magnetoconductivity is interpreted in terms of the weak-localization effect and superconducting fluctuations. Aslamazov-Larkin and Maki-Thompson superconducting fluctuations alone fail to reproduce the magnetic field dependence in the relatively high magnetic field range when the temperature is rather close to Tc because the suppression of the electronic density of states due to the formation of short-lifetime Cooper pairs needs to be considered. The time scale τi of inelastic scattering is ascribed to a combination of electron-electron (τe -e) and electron-phonon (τe -p h) interaction times, and a characteristic electron-fluctuation time (τe -f l) , which makes it possible to extract their magnitudes and temperature dependencies from the measured τi. The ratio of phonon-electron (τp h -e) and electron-phonon interaction times is obtained via measurements of the optical photoresponse of WSi microbridges. Relatively large τe -p h/τp h -e and τe -p h/τe -e ratios ensure that in WSi the photon energy is more efficiently confined in the electron subsystem than in other materials commonly used in the technology of superconducting nanowire single-photon detectors (SNSPDs). We discuss the impact of interaction times on the hotspot dynamics and compare relevant metrics of SNSPDs from different materials.

  18. A Review of Time-Scale Modification of Music Signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jonathan Driedger

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Time-scale modification (TSM is the task of speeding up or slowing down an audio signal’s playback speed without changing its pitch. In digital music production, TSM has become an indispensable tool, which is nowadays integrated in a wide range of music production software. Music signals are diverse—they comprise harmonic, percussive, and transient components, among others. Because of this wide range of acoustic and musical characteristics, there is no single TSM method that can cope with all kinds of audio signals equally well. Our main objective is to foster a better understanding of the capabilities and limitations of TSM procedures. To this end, we review fundamental TSM methods, discuss typical challenges, and indicate potential solutions that combine different strategies. In particular, we discuss a fusion approach that involves recent techniques for harmonic-percussive separation along with time-domain and frequency-domain TSM procedures.

  19. Scale invariance in chaotic time series: Classical and quantum examples

    Science.gov (United States)

    Landa, Emmanuel; Morales, Irving O.; Stránský, Pavel; Fossion, Rubén; Velázquez, Victor; López Vieyra, J. C.; Frank, Alejandro

    Important aspects of chaotic behavior appear in systems of low dimension, as illustrated by the Map Module 1. It is indeed a remarkable fact that all systems tha make a transition from order to disorder display common properties, irrespective of their exacta functional form. We discuss evidence for 1/f power spectra in the chaotic time series associated in classical and quantum examples, the one-dimensional map module 1 and the spectrum of 48Ca. A Detrended Fluctuation Analysis (DFA) method is applied to investigate the scaling properties of the energy fluctuations in the spectrum of 48Ca obtained with a large realistic shell model calculation (ANTOINE code) and with a random shell model (TBRE) calculation also in the time series obtained with the map mod 1. We compare the scale invariant properties of the 48Ca nuclear spectrum sith similar analyses applied to the RMT ensambles GOE and GDE. A comparison with the corresponding power spectra is made in both cases. The possible consequences of the results are discussed.

  20. Adaptation and learning: characteristic time scales of performance dynamics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Newell, Karl M; Mayer-Kress, Gottfried; Hong, S Lee; Liu, Yeou-Teh

    2009-12-01

    A multiple time scales landscape model is presented that reveals structures of performance dynamics that were not resolved in the traditional power law analysis of motor learning. It shows the co-existence of separate processes during and between practice sessions that evolve in two independent dimensions characterized by time scales that differ by about an order of magnitude. Performance along the slow persistent dimension of learning improves often as much and sometimes more during rest (memory consolidation and/or insight generation processes) than during a practice session itself. In contrast, the process characterized by the fast, transient dimension of adaptation reverses direction between practice sessions, thereby significantly degrading performance at the beginning of the next practice session (warm-up decrement). The theoretical model fits qualitatively and quantitatively the data from Snoddy's [Snoddy, G. S. (1926). Learning and stability. Journal of Applied Psychology, 10, 1-36] classic learning study of mirror tracing and other averaged and individual data sets, and provides a new account of the processes of change in adaptation and learning. 2009 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  1. Times of analgesic efficacy of two drugs in the treatment of patients with renal-ureteral colic compared by survival models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Luis Reyes Velázquez

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Renourethral colic is a very painful clinical situation that requires a quick diagnosis and treatment. A study was done with patients who were administered two types of analgesics, and whose pain was measured through a visual analogue scale. Censored data results were obtained, considering the time when the pain disappeared as the random variable. Maximum likelihood and survival analysis give useful methods to estimate the distribution and parametric functions for this variable. This study will allow a more effective, timely, lower cost and suitable medical treatment for patients.

  2. Timing of chemotherapy and survival in patients with resectable gastric adenocarcinoma

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arrington, Amanda K; Nelson, Rebecca; Patel, Supriya S; Luu, Carrie; Ko, Michelle; Garcia-Aguilar, Julio; Kim, Joseph

    2013-01-01

    AIM: To evaluate the timing of chemotherapy in gastric cancer by comparing survival outcomes in treatment groups. METHODS: Patients with surgically resected gastric adenocarcinoma from 1988 to 2006 were identified from the Los Angeles County Cancer Surveillance Program. To evaluate the population most likely to receive and/or benefit from adjunct chemotherapy, inclusion criteria consisted of Stage II or III gastric cancer patients > 18 years of age who underwent curative-intent surgical resection. Patients were categorized into three groups according to the receipt of chemotherapy: (1) no chemotherapy; (2) preoperative chemotherapy; or (3) postoperative chemotherapy. Clinical and pathologic characteristics were compared across the different treatment arms. RESULTS: Of 1518 patients with surgically resected gastric cancer, 327 (21.5%) received perioperative chemotherapy. The majority of these 327 patients were male (68%) with a mean age of 61.5 years; and they were significantly younger than non-chemotherapy patients (mean age, 70.7; P advanced gastric cancer. CONCLUSION: This study supports the implementation of a randomized trial comparing the timing of perioperative therapy in patients with locally advanced gastric cancer. PMID:24392183

  3. The Time Scale of Recombination Rate Evolution in Great Apes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stevison, Laurie S.; Woerner, August E.; Kidd, Jeffrey M.; Kelley, Joanna L.; Veeramah, Krishna R.; McManus, Kimberly F.; Bustamante, Carlos D.; Hammer, Michael F.; Wall, Jeffrey D.

    2016-01-01

    Abstract We present three linkage-disequilibrium (LD)-based recombination maps generated using whole-genome sequence data from 10 Nigerian chimpanzees, 13 bonobos, and 15 western gorillas, collected as part of the Great Ape Genome Project (Prado-Martinez J, et al. 2013. Great ape genetic diversity and population history. Nature 499:471–475). We also identified species-specific recombination hotspots in each group using a modified LDhot framework, which greatly improves statistical power to detect hotspots at varying strengths. We show that fewer hotspots are shared among chimpanzee subspecies than within human populations, further narrowing the time scale of complete hotspot turnover. Further, using species-specific PRDM9 sequences to predict potential binding sites (PBS), we show higher predicted PRDM9 binding in recombination hotspots as compared to matched cold spot regions in multiple great ape species, including at least one chimpanzee subspecies. We found that correlations between broad-scale recombination rates decline more rapidly than nucleotide divergence between species. We also compared the skew of recombination rates at centromeres and telomeres between species and show a skew from chromosome means extending as far as 10–15 Mb from chromosome ends. Further, we examined broad-scale recombination rate changes near a translocation in gorillas and found minimal differences as compared to other great ape species perhaps because the coordinates relative to the chromosome ends were unaffected. Finally, on the basis of multiple linear regression analysis, we found that various correlates of recombination rate persist throughout the African great apes including repeats, diversity, and divergence. Our study is the first to analyze within- and between-species genome-wide recombination rate variation in several close relatives. PMID:26671457

  4. The Health Rationale for Family Planning: Timing of Births and Child Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    United Nations, New York, NY. Population Div.

    Among the most influential findings from the World Fertility Survey (WFS) were those linking fertility patterns to child survival, in particular the findings concerning the high infant and child mortality for children born after a short birth interval. This study examined the relations between fertility and child survival based on more recent data…

  5. Patients with type 2 diabetes benefit from primary care-based disease management: a propensity score matched survival time analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drabik, Anna; Büscher, Guido; Thomas, Karsten; Graf, Christian; Müller, Dirk; Stock, Stephanie

    2012-08-01

    This study aimed to assess the impact of a nationwide German diabetes mellitus disease management program (DMP) on survival time and costs in comparison to routine care. The authors conducted a retrospective observational cohort study using routine administration data from Germany's largest sickness fund to identify insured suffering from diabetes in 2002. A total of 95,443 insured with type 2 diabetes mellitus who were born before January 1, 1962 met the defined inclusion criteria, resulting in 19,888 pairs of DMP participants and nonparticipants matched for socioeconomic and health status using propensity score matching methods. This is the first time propensity score matching has been used to evaluate a survival benefit of DMPs. In the time frame analyzed (3 years), mean survival time for the DMP group was 1045 days vs. 985 days for the routine care group (Ptime. They also incurred lower costs compared to propensity score matched insured in routine care.

  6. Neural Computations in a Dynamical System with Multiple Time Scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mi, Yuanyuan; Lin, Xiaohan; Wu, Si

    2016-01-01

    Neural systems display rich short-term dynamics at various levels, e.g., spike-frequency adaptation (SFA) at the single-neuron level, and short-term facilitation (STF) and depression (STD) at the synapse level. These dynamical features typically cover a broad range of time scales and exhibit large diversity in different brain regions. It remains unclear what is the computational benefit for the brain to have such variability in short-term dynamics. In this study, we propose that the brain can exploit such dynamical features to implement multiple seemingly contradictory computations in a single neural circuit. To demonstrate this idea, we use continuous attractor neural network (CANN) as a working model and include STF, SFA and STD with increasing time constants in its dynamics. Three computational tasks are considered, which are persistent activity, adaptation, and anticipative tracking. These tasks require conflicting neural mechanisms, and hence cannot be implemented by a single dynamical feature or any combination with similar time constants. However, with properly coordinated STF, SFA and STD, we show that the network is able to implement the three computational tasks concurrently. We hope this study will shed light on the understanding of how the brain orchestrates its rich dynamics at various levels to realize diverse cognitive functions.

  7. Time-scales of stellar rotational variability and starspot diagnostics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arkhypov, Oleksiy V.; Khodachenko, Maxim L.; Lammer, Helmut; Güdel, Manuel; Lüftinger, Teresa; Johnstone, Colin P.

    2018-01-01

    The difference in stability of starspot distribution on the global and hemispherical scales is studied in the rotational spot variability of 1998 main-sequence stars observed by Kepler mission. It is found that the largest patterns are much more stable than smaller ones for cool, slow rotators, whereas the difference is less pronounced for hotter stars and/or faster rotators. This distinction is interpreted in terms of two mechanisms: (1) the diffusive decay of long-living spots in activity complexes of stars with saturated magnetic dynamos, and (2) the spot emergence, which is modulated by gigantic turbulent flows in convection zones of stars with a weaker magnetism. This opens a way for investigation of stellar deep convection, which is yet inaccessible for asteroseismology. Moreover, a subdiffusion in stellar photospheres was revealed from observations for the first time. A diagnostic diagram was proposed that allows differentiation and selection of stars for more detailed studies of these phenomena.

  8. BOX-COX REGRESSION METHOD IN TIME SCALING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    ATİLLA GÖKTAŞ

    2013-06-01

    Full Text Available Box-Cox regression method with λj, for j = 1, 2, ..., k, power transformation can be used when dependent variable and error term of the linear regression model do not satisfy the continuity and normality assumptions. The situation obtaining the smallest mean square error  when optimum power λj, transformation for j = 1, 2, ..., k, of Y has been discussed. Box-Cox regression method is especially appropriate to adjust existence skewness or heteroscedasticity of error terms for a nonlinear functional relationship between dependent and explanatory variables. In this study, the advantage and disadvantage use of Box-Cox regression method have been discussed in differentiation and differantial analysis of time scale concept.

  9. Survival analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Badwe, R.A.

    1999-01-01

    The primary endpoint in the majority of the studies has been either disease recurrence or death. This kind of analysis requires a special method since all patients in the study experience the endpoint. The standard method for estimating such survival distribution is Kaplan Meier method. The survival function is defined as the proportion of individuals who survive beyond certain time. Multi-variate comparison for survival has been carried out with Cox's proportional hazard model

  10. Prewhitening of hydroclimatic time series? Implications for inferred change and variability across time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Razavi, Saman; Vogel, Richard

    2018-02-01

    Prewhitening, the process of eliminating or reducing short-term stochastic persistence to enable detection of deterministic change, has been extensively applied to time series analysis of a range of geophysical variables. Despite the controversy around its utility, methodologies for prewhitening time series continue to be a critical feature of a variety of analyses including: trend detection of hydroclimatic variables and reconstruction of climate and/or hydrology through proxy records such as tree rings. With a focus on the latter, this paper presents a generalized approach to exploring the impact of a wide range of stochastic structures of short- and long-term persistence on the variability of hydroclimatic time series. Through this approach, we examine the impact of prewhitening on the inferred variability of time series across time scales. We document how a focus on prewhitened, residual time series can be misleading, as it can drastically distort (or remove) the structure of variability across time scales. Through examples with actual data, we show how such loss of information in prewhitened time series of tree rings (so-called "residual chronologies") can lead to the underestimation of extreme conditions in climate and hydrology, particularly droughts, reconstructed for centuries preceding the historical period.

  11. The accuracy of survival time prediction for patients with glioma is improved by measuring mitotic spindle checkpoint gene expression.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Li Bie

    Full Text Available Identification of gene expression changes that improve prediction of survival time across all glioma grades would be clinically useful. Four Affymetrix GeneChip datasets from the literature, containing data from 771 glioma samples representing all WHO grades and eight normal brain samples, were used in an ANOVA model to screen for transcript changes that correlated with grade. Observations were confirmed and extended using qPCR assays on RNA derived from 38 additional glioma samples and eight normal samples for which survival data were available. RNA levels of eight major mitotic spindle assembly checkpoint (SAC genes (BUB1, BUB1B, BUB3, CENPE, MAD1L1, MAD2L1, CDC20, TTK significantly correlated with glioma grade and six also significantly correlated with survival time. In particular, the level of BUB1B expression was highly correlated with survival time (p<0.0001, and significantly outperformed all other measured parameters, including two standards; WHO grade and MIB-1 (Ki-67 labeling index. Measurement of the expression levels of a small set of SAC genes may complement histological grade and other clinical parameters for predicting survival time.

  12. End points for adjuvant therapy trials: has the time come to accept disease-free survival as a surrogate end point for overall survival?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gill, Sharlene; Sargent, Daniel

    2006-06-01

    The intent of adjuvant therapy is to eradicate micro-metastatic residual disease following curative resection with the goal of preventing or delaying recurrence. The time-honored standard for demonstrating efficacy of new adjuvant therapies is an improvement in overall survival (OS). This typically requires phase III trials of large sample size with lengthy follow-up. With the intent of reducing the cost and time of completing such trials, there is considerable interest in developing alternative or surrogate end points. A surrogate end point may be employed as a substitute to directly assess the effects of an intervention on an already accepted clinical end point such as mortality. When used judiciously, surrogate end points can accelerate the evaluation of new therapies, resulting in the more timely dissemination of effective therapies to patients. The current review provides a perspective on the suitability and validity of disease-free survival (DFS) as an alternative end point for OS. Criteria for establishing surrogacy and the advantages and limitations associated with the use of DFS as a primary end point in adjuvant clinical trials and as the basis for approval of new adjuvant therapies are discussed.

  13. The pace of aging: Intrinsic time scales in demography

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tomasz Wrycza

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: The pace of aging is a concept that captures the time-related aspect of aging. It formalizesthe idea of a characteristic life span or intrinsic population time scale. In the rapidly developing field of comparative biodemography, measures that account for inter-speciesdifferences in life span are needed to compare how species age. Objective: We aim to provide a mathematical foundation for the concept of pace. We derive desiredmathematical properties of pace measures and suggest candidates which satisfy these properties. Subsequently, we introduce the concept of pace-standardization, which reveals differences in demographic quantities that are not due to pace. Examples and consequences are discussed. Conclusions: Mean life span (i.e., life expectancy from birth or from maturity is intuitively appealing,theoretically justified, and the most appropriate measure of pace. Pace-standardizationprovides a serviceable method for comparative aging studies to explore differences indemographic patterns of aging across species, and it may considerably alter conclusionsabout the strength of aging.

  14. Effect of 153Sm-EDTMP on survival time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and multiple bone metastases

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fan Wei; Zheng Zongyuan; Xu Guangpu

    2004-01-01

    Objective: To evaluate the effect on survival of Samarium-153-ethylene diamine tetramethylene phosphonate (153Sm-EDTMP) in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) and multiple bone metastases. Methods: From 1993 to 1999, 160 patients (127 men, 33 women; median age 35 years) presented with NPC and multiple bone metastases. Of these, 40 patients had undergone chemotherapy, and 72 palliative radiotherapy. Patients were randomly divided into four groups: Group 1 (N = 20) received analgesics (control); Groups 2, 3 and 4 (N = 80, 40, and 20, respectively) received one, two or three courses, respectively, of 153Sm-EDTMP (77.7 MBq/kg/course; course interval, 4 wk). Results: Eight patients died of non-cancer-related causes, and 24 were lost to follow-up. The median survival time for Group 1 (7.8 months) was significantly less (p < 0.05) than that of Groups 2, 3 and 4 (11.6, 13.4 and 12.8 months, respectively). Patients given 153Sm-EDTMP who had had revious external radiation survived longer (p < 0.05) than those in the other treatment groups. Conclusions: Internal radiotherapy with 153Sm-EDTMP can extend survival time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma and multiple bone metastases; when combined with external radiotherapy in appropriate patients, its effect on survival time is enhanced.. (authors)

  15. Correlation between the CT manifestations and post-operative survival time in patients with thymic epithelial tumor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen Juan; Tan Ye; Wang Xiangyang; Du Jun; Pan Jishu; Wei Jiahu

    2011-01-01

    Objective: To describe the CT manifestations of thymic epithelial tumor and explore the correlation between CT findings and post-operative tumor-related survival time. Methods: Ninety-one patients who underwent CT scan before operation were reviewed retrospectively. All cases had operation and were classified according to the WHO classification. The size, contour, shape, density and enhancement of the tumors on CT were assessed. Presence of mediastinal lymphadenopathy, great vessel invasion, metastasis to the lung or plural, myasthenia gravis (MG) were also analyzed. The survival rate was obtained using, the Kaplan-Meier method. The Cox model was applied to determine the factors affecting the tumor-related survivals. Chi square test was used to analyze the relationship between CT findings and WHO classification. Results: Two patients were excluded because of dying of myocardial infarction and colon cancer. The total 5-year survival rate was 84.3% (n=75). Eighty-nine patients had total 91 tumors. Tumors with diameter larger than 5 cm, lobular contour, heterogenous density, and presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis were adverse factors which could significantly affect the survival time. Five-year survival rates of these factors were 72.7%, 77.3%, 76.7%, 73.8%, 30.0%, and 68.8%, respectively. Presence of MG was a favorable factor which also significantly affected the survival time (P 0.05). The result of the Cox multivariate analysis was consistent with that of the Log-rank test. For different WHO classification, there were significant different among the size or contour of the tumors, presence of great vessel invasion, mediastinal lymphadenopathy, and metastasis (χ 2 value were 6.598, 5.737, 18.307, 8.465, and 15.608, respectively P<0.05). Conclusions: CT findings may be served as predictors of clinical prognosis of the thymic epithelial tumors. Adverse factors for survival time are the size of the tumors and presence of

  16. Differences in compliance with Surviving Sepsis Campaign recommendations according to hospital entrance time: day versus night.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almeida, Mónica; Ribeiro, Orquídea; Aragão, Irene; Costa-Pereira, Altamiro; Cardoso, Teresa

    2013-04-23

    Higher compliance with Surviving Sepsis Campaign (SSC) recommendations has been associated with lower mortality. The authors evaluate differences in compliance with SSC 6-hour bundle according to hospital entrance time (day versus night) and its impact on hospital mortality. Prospective cohort study of all patients with community-acquired severe sepsis admitted to the intensive care unit of a large university tertiary care hospital, over 3.5 years with a follow-up until hospital discharge. Time to compliance with each recommendation of the SSC 6-hour bundle was calculated according to hospital entrance period: day (08:30 to 20:30) versus night (20:30 to 08:30). For the same periods, clinical staff composition and the number of patients attending the emergency department (ED) was also recorded. In this period 300 consecutive patients were included. Compliance rate was (night vs. day): serum lactate measurement 57% vs. 49% (P = 0.171), blood cultures drawn 59% vs. 37% (P 8 mmHg 45% vs. 29% (P = 0.021), and central venous oxygen saturation (SvcO₂) >70%, 7% vs. 2% (P = 0.082); fluids were administered in all patients with hypotension in both periods and vasopressors were administered in patients with hypotension not responsive to fluids in 100% vs. 99%. Time to get specific actions done was also different (night vs. day): serum lactate measurement (4.5 vs. 7 h, P = 0.018), blood cultures drawn (4 vs. 8 h, P night with a higher proportion of less differentiated doctors. The number of patients attending the Emergency Department was lower overnight. Hospital mortality rate was 34% in patients entering in the night period vs. 40% in those entering during the day (P = 0.281). Compliance with SSC recommendations was higher at night. A possible explanation might be the increased nurse to patient ratio in that period. Adjustment of the clinical team composition to the patients' demand is needed to increase compliance and improve prognosis.

  17. The Impact of Radiation Treatment Time on Survival in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shaikh, Talha; Handorf, Elizabeth A.; Murphy, Colin T.; Mehra, Ranee; Ridge, John A.; Galloway, Thomas J.

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To assess the impact of radiation treatment time (RTT) in head and neck cancers on overall survival (OS) in the era of chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Patients with diagnoses of tongue, hypopharynx, larynx, oropharynx, or tonsil cancer were identified by use of the National Cancer Database. RTT was defined as date of first radiation treatment to date of last radiation treatment. In the definitive setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >56 days, accelerated RTT was defined as 49 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <40 days, and standard RTT was defined as 40 to 49 days. We used χ"2 tests to identify predictors of RTT. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare OS among groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used for OS analysis in patients with known comorbidity status. Results: 19,531 patients were included; 12,987 (67%) had a standard RTT, 4,369 (34%) had an accelerated RTT, and 2,165 (11%) had a prolonged RTT. On multivariable analysis, accelerated RTT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.97) was associated with an improved OS, and prolonged RTT (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14-1.37) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT. When the 9,200 (47%) patients receiving definitive concurrent chemoradiation were examined, prolonged RTT (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11-1.50) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT, whereas there was no significant association between accelerated RTT and OS (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.57-1.01). Conclusion: Prolonged RTT is associated with worse OS in patients receiving radiation therapy for head and neck cancer, even in the setting of chemoradiation. Expeditious completion of radiation should continue to be a quality metric for the management of head and neck malignancies.

  18. Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jacobs, R.M.; Boyce, J.T.; Kociba, G.J.

    1986-01-01

    This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation time studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats.

  19. Flow cytometric and radioisotopic determinations of platelet survival time in normal cats and feline leukemia virus-infected cats

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jacobs, R.M.; Boyce, J.T.; Kociba, G.J.

    1986-01-01

    This study demonstrates the potential usefulness of a flow cytometric technique to measure platelet survival time in cats utilizing autologous platelets labeled in vitro with fluorescein isothiocyanate (FITC). When compared with a 51Cr method, no significant differences in estimated survival times were found. Both the 51Cr and FITC-labeling procedures induced similar changes in platelet shape and collagen-induced aggregation. Platelets labeled with FITC had significantly greater volumes compared with those of glutaraldehyde-fixed platelets. These changes were primarily related to the platelet centrifugation and washing procedures rather than the labels themselves. This novel technique potentially has wide applicability to cell circulation time studies as flow cytometry equipment becomes more readily available. Problems with the technique are discussed. In a preliminary study of the platelet survival time in feline leukemia virus (FeLV)-infected cats, two of three cats had significantly reduced survival times using both flow cytometric and radioisotopic methods. These data suggest increased platelet turnover in FeLV-infected cats

  20. Progression-free survival/time to progression as a potential surrogate for overall survival in HR+, HER2– metastatic breast cancer

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Forsythe A

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available Anna Forsythe,1 David Chandiwana,2 Janina Barth,3 Marroon Thabane,4 Johan Baeck,2 Gabriel Tremblay1 1Purple Squirrel Economics, New York, NY, 2Novartis Pharmaceuticals Corporation, East Hanover, NJ, USA; 3Novartis Pharma GmbH, Nuremberg, Germany; 4Novartis Pharmaceuticals Incorporated, Dorval, QC, Canada Background: Several recent randomized controlled trials (RCTs in hormone receptor-positive (HR+, human epidermal growth factor receptor 2-negative (HER2– metastatic breast cancer (MBC have demonstrated significant improvements in progression-free survival (PFS; however, few have reported improvement in overall survival (OS. The surrogacy of PFS or time to progression (TTP for OS has not been formally investigated in HR+, HER2– MBC.Methods: A systematic literature review of RCTs in HR+, HER2– MBC was conducted to identify studies that reported both median PFS/TTP and OS. The correlation between PFS/TTP and OS was evaluated using Pearson’s product–moment correlation and Spearman’s rank correlation. Subgroup analyses were performed to explore possible reasons for heterogeneity. Errors-in-variables weighted least squares regression (LSR was used to model incremental OS months as a function of incremental PFS/TTP months. An exploratory analysis investigated the impact of three covariates (chemotherapy vs hormonal/targeted therapy, PFS vs TTP, and first-line therapy vs second-line therapy or greater on OS prediction. The lower 95% prediction band was used to determine the minimum incremental PFS/TTP months required to predict OS benefit (surrogate threshold effect [STE].Results: Forty studies were identified. There was a statistically significant correlation between median PFS/TTP and OS (Pearson =0.741, P=0.000; Spearman =0.650, P=0.000. These results proved consistent for chemotherapy and hormonal/targeted therapy. Univariate LSR analysis yielded an R2 of 0.354 with 1 incremental PFS/TTP month corresponding to 1.13 incremental OS months

  1. Ozone time scale decomposition and trend assessment from surface observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boleti, Eirini; Hueglin, Christoph; Takahama, Satoshi

    2017-04-01

    Emissions of ozone precursors have been regulated in Europe since around 1990 with control measures primarily targeting to industries and traffic. In order to understand how these measures have affected air quality, it is now important to investigate concentrations of tropospheric ozone in different types of environments, based on their NOx burden, and in different geographic regions. In this study, we analyze high quality data sets for Switzerland (NABEL network) and whole Europe (AirBase) for the last 25 years to calculate long-term trends of ozone concentrations. A sophisticated time scale decomposition method, called the Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition (EEMD) (Huang,1998;Wu,2009), is used for decomposition of the different time scales of the variation of ozone, namely the long-term trend, seasonal and short-term variability. This allows subtraction of the seasonal pattern of ozone from the observations and estimation of long-term changes of ozone concentrations with lower uncertainty ranges compared to typical methodologies used. We observe that, despite the implementation of regulations, for most of the measurement sites ozone daily mean values have been increasing until around mid-2000s. Afterwards, we observe a decline or a leveling off in the concentrations; certainly a late effect of limitations in ozone precursor emissions. On the other hand, the peak ozone concentrations have been decreasing for almost all regions. The evolution in the trend exhibits some differences between the different types of measurement. In addition, ozone is known to be strongly affected by meteorology. In the applied approach, some of the meteorological effects are already captured by the seasonal signal and already removed in the de-seasonalized ozone time series. For adjustment of the influence of meteorology on the higher frequency ozone variation, a statistical approach based on Generalized Additive Models (GAM) (Hastie,1990;Wood,2006), which corrects for meteorological

  2. The impact of chemotherapy and its timing on survival in malignant peritoneal mesothelioma treated with complete debulking.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naffouje, Samer A; Tulla, Kiara A; Salti, George I

    2018-04-12

    The current standard of treatment for malignant peritoneal mesothelioma (MPM) is cytoreductive surgery when the disease distribution is favorable. The role of chemotherapy, as an adjunct to surgery, remains unclear. The national database of mesothelioma was used to identify MPM patients who were treated with curative intent. Patients were divided into treatment groups: (1) chemotherapy only, (2) surgery only, (3) neoadjuvant chemotherapy + surgery, and (4) surgery + adjuvant chemotherapy. A negative control group of patients who did not receive any treatment was added (group 0). Totally, 1740 patients were included. Mean age was 63.04 ± 14.58 and 60.7% were males. The patients' distribution into the treatment groups was 604, 684, 169, 55, and 228 patients in groups 0-4, respectively, with a median survival of 3.61 ± 0.37, 11.10 ± 0.73, 57.41 ± 11.91, 52.30 ± 7.20, and 55.00 ± 9.19 months. The addition of chemotherapy, in any setting, to surgery provided an improved survival at 1 year (p = 0.006). This survival benefit ceased at the 2-, 3-, and 5-year checkpoints. The multivariate analysis identified age, sarcomatoid/biphasic histologies, nodal and distant metastasis, and offering no treatment or chemotherapy only as poor prognostic factors for overall survival. No difference in overall survival was noted with the addition of chemotherapy to complete debulking regardless of the timing. Complete debulking remains the standard treatment for MPM. The addition of systemic chemotherapy provides a short-term survival improvement at 1 year only and was similar whether given in the neoadjuvant or adjuvant setting. Nevertheless, it did not add a survival benefit beyond the 1-year time point.

  3. Review of Tropical-Extratropical Teleconnections on Intraseasonal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stan, Cristiana; Straus, David M.; Frederiksen, Jorgen S.; Lin, Hai; Maloney, Eric D.; Schumacher, Courtney

    2017-12-01

    The interactions and teleconnections between the tropical and midlatitude regions on intraseasonal time scales are an important modulator of tropical and extratropical circulation anomalies and their associated weather patterns. These interactions arise due to the impact of the tropics on the extratropics, the impact of the midlatitudes on the tropics, and two-way interactions between the regions. Observational evidence, as well as theoretical studies with models of complexity ranging from the linear barotropic framework to intricate Earth system models, suggest the involvement of a myriad of processes and mechanisms in generating and maintaining these interconnections. At this stage, our understanding of these teleconnections is primarily a collection of concepts; a comprehensive theoretical framework has yet to be established. These intraseasonal teleconnections are increasingly recognized as an untapped source of potential subseasonal predictability. However, the complexity and diversity of mechanisms associated with these teleconnections, along with the lack of a conceptual framework to relate them, prevent this potential predictability from being translated into realized forecast skill. This review synthesizes our progress in understanding the observed characteristics of intraseasonal tropical-extratropical interactions and their associated mechanisms, identifies the significant gaps in this understanding, and recommends new research endeavors to address the remaining challenges.

  4. Determine the Influence of Time Held in “Knockdown” Anesthesia on Survival and Stress of Surgically Implanted Juvenile Salmonids

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Woodley, Christa M.; Wagner, Katie A.; Knox, Kasey M.

    2012-01-31

    The Juvenile Salmon Acoustic Telemetry System (JSATS) was developed for the U.S. Army Corp of Engineers Portland District (USACE) to address questions related to survival and performance measures of juvenile salmonids as they pass through the Federal Columbia River Power System (FCRPS). Researchers using JSATS acoustic transmitters (ATs) were tasked with standardizing the surgical implantation procedure to ensure that the stressors of handling and surgery on salmonids were consistent and less likely to cause effects of tagging in survival studies. Researchers questioned whether the exposure time in 'knockdown' anesthesia (or induction) to prepare fish for surgery could influence the survival of study fish (CBSPSC 2011). Currently, fish are held in knockdown anesthesia after they reach Stage 4 anesthesia until the completion of the surgical implantation of a transmitter, varies from 5 to 15 minutes for studies conducted in the Columbia Basin. The Columbia Basin Surgical Protocol Steering Committee (CBSPSC ) expressed concern that its currently recommended 10-minute maximum time limit during which fish are held in anesthetic - tricaine methanesulfonate (MS-222, 80 mg L-1 water) - could increase behavioral and physiological costs, and/or decrease survival of outmigrating juvenile salmonids. In addition, the variability in the time fish are held at Stage 4 could affect the data intended for direct comparison of fish within or among survival studies. Under the current recommended protocol, if fish exceed the 10-minute time limit, they are to be released without surgical implantation, thereby increasing the number of fish handled and endangered species 'take' at the bypass systems for FCRPS survival studies.

  5. Time to Thrive, Not Just Survive: Accumulating Advantage for Women in Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rolison, Debra

    2005-04-01

    Our departments of science, technology, mathematics, and engineering (STEM) need more women as faculty, and not only to show their undergraduates that a career in academia is a viable path. Their absence warns us that an unhealthy environment exists: unhealthy to those scientists who want fulfilling lives beyond academe and unhealthy to those women, who once they demonstrate productivity, scholarship, and mentorship, still reap less respect, space, salary, funding, and awards than their male colleagues. The recalcitrance of too many of our research universities toward diversifying their faculty is a national disgrace in that these universities covet a diversified student body, but do not reflect that pool of talent onto their faculty. Similar difficulties are apparent among the staff of National and Federal laboratories. Self-reform is not getting it done, and is especially frustrating in light of the historic opportunity to change the demographics as scientists and engineers hired in the 1960s retire. Is it time to apply the logic of Title IX--the loss of Federal funds--for the entrenched inability to increase the number of women represented on STEM faculties? Such a threat may be the impetus necessary for university administrators to create departmental environments that women are willing to call home. The July 2004 release of the GAO report on Women's Participation in the Sciences (which also surveyed DOE facilities) reminded those Federal agencies that fund scientific research that Title IX is the law and that these agencies must begin Title IX assessments of compliance in the STEM departments and institutions they fund. It is past time that women thrive, not just survive in their career homes. Using the mechanistic philosophy of Title IX--denial of resources to recalacitrant departments and laboratories--may be the start of a truly inclusive scientific enterprise in the United States. We must accept this opportunity to redirect the nature of the research

  6. Survival times of patients with a first hip fracture with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Angthong, Chayanin; Angthong, Wirana; Harnroongroj, Thos; Naito, Masatoshi; Harnroongroj, Thossart

    2013-01-01

    Survival rates are poorer after a second hip fracture than after a first hip fracture. Previous survival studies have included in-hospital mortality. Excluding in-hospital deaths from the analysis allows survival times to be evaluated in community-based patients. There is still a lack of data regarding the effects of subsequent fractures on survival times after hospital discharge following an initial hip fracture. This study compared the survival times of community-dwelling patients with hip fracture who had or did not have a subsequent major long-bone fracture. Hazard ratios and risk factors for subsequent fractures and mortality rates with and without subsequent fractures were calculated. Of 844 patients with hip fracture from 2000 through 2008, 71 had a subsequent major long-bone fracture and 773 did not. Patients who died of other causes, such as perioperative complications, during hospitalization were excluded. Such exclusion allowed us to determine the effect of subsequent fracture on the survival of community-dwelling individuals after hospital discharge or after the time of the fracture if they did not need hospitalization. Demographic data, causes of death, and mortality rates were recorded. Differences in mortality rates between the patient groups and hazard ratios were calculated. Mortality rates during the first year and from 1 to 5 years after the most recent fracture were 5.6% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients with subsequent fractures, and 4.7% and 1.4%, respectively, in patients without subsequent fractures. These rates did not differ significantly between the groups. Cox regression analysis and calculation of hazard ratios did not show significant differences between patients with subsequent fractures and those without. On univariate and multivariate analyses, age fracture. This study found that survival times did not differ significantly between patients with and without subsequent major long-bone fractures after hip fracture. Therefore, all

  7. Time-scales for runoff and erosion estimates, with implications for spatial scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kirkby, M. J.; Irvine, B. J.; Dalen, E. N.

    2009-04-01

    Using rainfall data at high temporal resolution, runoff may be estimated for every bucket-tip, or for aggregated hourly or daily periods. Although there is no doubt that finer resolution gives substantially better estimates, many models make use of coarser time steps because these data are more widely available. This paper makes comparisons between runoff estimates based on infiltration measurements used with high resolution rainfall data for SE Spain and theoretical work on improving the time resolution in the PESERA model from daily to hourly values, for areas where these are available. For a small plot at fine temporal scale, runoff responds to bursts of intense rainfall which, for the Guadalentin catchment, typically lasts for about 30 minutes. However, when a larger area is considered, the large and unstructured variability in infiltration capacity produces an aggregate runoff that differs substantially from estimates using average infiltration parameters (in the Green-Ampt equation). When these estimates are compared with estimates based on rainfall for aggregated hourly or daily periods, using a simpler infiltration model, it can be seen that there a substantial scatter, as expected, but that suitable parameterisation can provide reasonable average estimates. Similar conclusions may be drawn for erosion estimates, assuming that sediment transport is proportional to a power of runoff discharge.. The spatial implications of these estimates can be made explicit with fine time resolution, showing that, with observed low overland flow velocities, only a small fraction of the hillside is generally able to deliver runoff to the nearest channel before rainfall intensity drops and runoff re-infiltrates. For coarser time resolutions, this has to be parameterised as a delivery ratio, and we show that how this ratio can be rationally estimated from rainfall characteristics.

  8. Nonequilibrium Physics at Short Time Scales: Formation of Correlations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Peliti, L

    2005-01-01

    It is a happy situation when similar concepts and theoretical techniques can be applied to widely different physical systems because of a deep similarity in the situations being studied. The book illustrates this well; it focuses on the description of correlations in quantum systems out of equilibrium at very short time scales, prompted by experiments with short laser pulses in semiconductors, and in complex reactions in heavy nuclei. In both cases the experiments are characterized by nonlinear dynamics and by strong correlations out of equilibrium. In some systems there are also important finite-size effects. The book comprises several independent contributions of moderate length, and I sometimes felt that a more intensive effort in cross-coordination of the different contributions could have been of help. It is divided almost equally between theory and experiment. In the theoretical part, there is a thorough discussion both of the kinematic aspects (description of correlations) and the dynamical ones (evaluation of correlations). The experimental part is naturally divided according to the nature of the system: the interaction of pulsed lasers with matter on the one hand, and the correlations in finite-size systems (nanoparticles and nuclei) on the other. There is also a discussion on the dynamics of superconductors, a subject currently of great interest. Although an effort has been made to keep each contribution self-contained, I must admit that reading level is uneven. However, there are a number of thorough and stimulating contributions that make this book a useful introduction to the topic at the level of graduate students or researchers acquainted with quantum statistical mechanics. (book review)

  9. EON: software for long time simulations of atomic scale systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chill, Samuel T.; Welborn, Matthew; Terrell, Rye; Zhang, Liang; Berthet, Jean-Claude; Pedersen, Andreas; Jónsson, Hannes; Henkelman, Graeme

    2014-07-01

    The EON software is designed for simulations of the state-to-state evolution of atomic scale systems over timescales greatly exceeding that of direct classical dynamics. States are defined as collections of atomic configurations from which a minimization of the potential energy gives the same inherent structure. The time evolution is assumed to be governed by rare events, where transitions between states are uncorrelated and infrequent compared with the timescale of atomic vibrations. Several methods for calculating the state-to-state evolution have been implemented in EON, including parallel replica dynamics, hyperdynamics and adaptive kinetic Monte Carlo. Global optimization methods, including simulated annealing, basin hopping and minima hopping are also implemented. The software has a client/server architecture where the computationally intensive evaluations of the interatomic interactions are calculated on the client-side and the state-to-state evolution is managed by the server. The client supports optimization for different computer architectures to maximize computational efficiency. The server is written in Python so that developers have access to the high-level functionality without delving into the computationally intensive components. Communication between the server and clients is abstracted so that calculations can be deployed on a single machine, clusters using a queuing system, large parallel computers using a message passing interface, or within a distributed computing environment. A generic interface to the evaluation of the interatomic interactions is defined so that empirical potentials, such as in LAMMPS, and density functional theory as implemented in VASP and GPAW can be used interchangeably. Examples are given to demonstrate the range of systems that can be modeled, including surface diffusion and island ripening of adsorbed atoms on metal surfaces, molecular diffusion on the surface of ice and global structural optimization of nanoparticles.

  10. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  11. KMWin – A Convenient Tool for Graphical Presentation of Results from Kaplan-Meier Survival Time Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gross, Arnd; Ziepert, Marita; Scholz, Markus

    2012-01-01

    Background Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows) facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav), SAS export (xpt) or text file (dat), which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. Results On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. Conclusions We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups. PMID:22723912

  12. Impact of Sodium Chloride and Heat on Survival Time of Linguatula Serrata Nymphs in vitro: An Experimental Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    B. Hajimohammadi

    2012-07-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: Linguatula serrata is a zoonotic parasite, belonging to the class Pentastomida. The major aim of this study was to evaluate the impact of sodium chloride (NaCl and heat on survival time of Linguatula serrata nymphs. Materials & Methods: Thirty nymphs (10 in triplicate were separately transferred to plastic tubes, containing different concentrations of NaCl solution (2%, 5% and 10%. Meanwhile, 30 nymphs in tubes containing Phosphate Buffer Saline (PBS were separately treated by +50°C, +60°C and +72°C. As control group, thirty nymphs were stored in PBS at +4°C. The effects of different conditions on survival time of the nymphs were evaluated by observing their motility in different periods of time. Results: The survival time of the nymphs stored in 10% NaCl solution was too short and all of them were dead after 3 hours. But the other ones maintained in 2% NaCl solution were significantly more resistant (p<0.05 and were survived for 2 days. All the nymphs pertaining to each +60°C and +72°C treatments were found dead after first 5-minute storage interval; the nymphs stored at +50°C died totally after 20 minutes. The nymphs maintained in PBS at +4°C (control group showed the longest survival time (p<0.05; all of them were alive until day 4 and the last ones died on day 34. Conclusion: It is concluded that salting and heating have significant parasiticidal effects on L. serrata nymphs and could be used as disinfecting methods in processing of meat products especially liver. However, refrigeration at +4°C increases the resistance of the nymphs in meat products and therefore might endanger the food safety.

  13. KMWin--a convenient tool for graphical presentation of results from Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arnd Gross

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Analysis of clinical studies often necessitates multiple graphical representations of the results. Many professional software packages are available for this purpose. Most packages are either only commercially available or hard to use especially if one aims to generate or customize a huge number of similar graphical outputs. We developed a new, freely available software tool called KMWin (Kaplan-Meier for Windows facilitating Kaplan-Meier survival time analysis. KMWin is based on the statistical software environment R and provides an easy to use graphical interface. Survival time data can be supplied as SPSS (sav, SAS export (xpt or text file (dat, which is also a common export format of other applications such as Excel. Figures can directly be exported in any graphical file format supported by R. RESULTS: On the basis of a working example, we demonstrate how to use KMWin and present its main functions. We show how to control the interface, customize the graphical output, and analyse survival time data. A number of comparisons are performed between KMWin and SPSS regarding graphical output, statistical output, data management and development. Although the general functionality of SPSS is larger, KMWin comprises a number of features useful for survival time analysis in clinical trials and other applications. These are for example number of cases and number of cases under risk within the figure or provision of a queue system for repetitive analyses of updated data sets. Moreover, major adjustments of graphical settings can be performed easily on a single window. CONCLUSIONS: We conclude that our tool is well suited and convenient for repetitive analyses of survival time data. It can be used by non-statisticians and provides often used functions as well as functions which are not supplied by standard software packages. The software is routinely applied in several clinical study groups.

  14. Correlation between the genetic diversity of nosocomial pathogens and their survival time in intensive care units.

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Gastmeier, P; Schwab, F; Bärwolff, S; Rüden, H; Grundmann, Hajo

    2006-01-01

    Bacteria differ in their ability to survive in the hospital environment outside the human host. Species remaining viable and infectious have a higher chance of being transmitted, giving them a fitness advantage in hospitals. This differential fitness could be expected to alter the genetic population

  15. Time-related survival effects of two gluconasturtiin hydrolysis products on the terrestrial isopod Porcellio scaber

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    van Ommen Kloeke, A E Elaine; Jager, Tjalling; van Gestel, Cornelis A. M.

    2012-01-01

    Glucosinolates are compounds produced by commercial crops which can hydrolyse in a range of natural toxins that may exert detrimental effects on beneficial soil organisms. This study examined the effects of 2-phenylethyl isothiocyanate and 3-phenylpropionitrile on the survival and growth of the w...

  16. The Impact of Radiation Treatment Time on Survival in Patients With Head and Neck Cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Shaikh, Talha [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Handorf, Elizabeth A. [Department of Biostatistics, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Murphy, Colin T. [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Mehra, Ranee [Department of Medical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Ridge, John A. [Department of Surgical Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States); Galloway, Thomas J., E-mail: Thomas.Galloway@fccc.edu [Department of Radiation Oncology, Fox Chase Cancer Center, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania (United States)

    2016-12-01

    Purpose: To assess the impact of radiation treatment time (RTT) in head and neck cancers on overall survival (OS) in the era of chemoradiation. Methods and Materials: Patients with diagnoses of tongue, hypopharynx, larynx, oropharynx, or tonsil cancer were identified by use of the National Cancer Database. RTT was defined as date of first radiation treatment to date of last radiation treatment. In the definitive setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >56 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <47 days, and standard RTT was defined as 47 to 56 days. In the postoperative setting, prolonged RTT was defined as >49 days, accelerated RTT was defined as <40 days, and standard RTT was defined as 40 to 49 days. We used χ{sup 2} tests to identify predictors of RTT. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to compare OS among groups. Cox proportional hazards model was used for OS analysis in patients with known comorbidity status. Results: 19,531 patients were included; 12,987 (67%) had a standard RTT, 4,369 (34%) had an accelerated RTT, and 2,165 (11%) had a prolonged RTT. On multivariable analysis, accelerated RTT (hazard ratio [HR] 0.84; 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.73-0.97) was associated with an improved OS, and prolonged RTT (HR 1.25; 95% CI 1.14-1.37) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT. When the 9,200 (47%) patients receiving definitive concurrent chemoradiation were examined, prolonged RTT (HR 1.29; 95% CI 1.11-1.50) was associated with a worse OS relative to standard RTT, whereas there was no significant association between accelerated RTT and OS (HR 0.76; 95% CI 0.57-1.01). Conclusion: Prolonged RTT is associated with worse OS in patients receiving radiation therapy for head and neck cancer, even in the setting of chemoradiation. Expeditious completion of radiation should continue to be a quality metric for the management of head and neck malignancies.

  17. Interaction of defibrillation waveform with the time to defibrillation or the number of defibrillation attempts on survival from out-of-hospital cardiac arrest.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hagihara, Akihito; Onozuka, Daisuke; Ono, Junko; Nagata, Takashi; Hasegawa, Manabu

    2018-01-01

    Early biphasic defibrillation is effective in out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) cases. In the resuscitation of patients with OHCA, it is not clear how the defibrillation waveform interacts with the time to defibrillation to influence patient survival. The second, and any subsequent, shocks need to be administered by an on-line physician in Japan. Thus, we investigated the interaction between the defibrillation waveform and time to or the number of defibrillation on resuscitation outcomes. This prospective observational study used data for all OHCAs that occurred between 2005 and 2014 in Japan. To investigate the interaction effect between the defibrillation waveform and the time to defibrillation or the number of defibrillations on the return to spontaneous circulation (ROSC), 1-month survival, and cerebral performance category (CPC) (1, 2), we assessed the modifying effects of the defibrillation waveform and the time to or the number of defibrillation on additive scale (i.e., the relative excessive risk due to interaction, RERI) and multiplicative scale (i.e., ratio of odds ratios (ORs)). In total, 71,566 cases met the inclusion criteria. For the measure of interaction between the defibrillation waveform and the time to defibrillation, ratio of ORs for ROSC was 0.84 (0.75-0.94), implying that the effect of time to first defibrillation on ROSC was negatively modified by defibrillation waveform. For the interaction between the defibrillation waveform and the number of defibrillations, RERI and ratio of ORs for CPC (1, 2) was -0.25 (-0.47 to -0.06) and 0.79 (0.67-0.93), respectively. It is implied that the effect of number of defibrillation on CPC (1, 2) was negatively modified by defibrillation waveform. An increased number of defibrillations was associated with a decreased ROSC in the case of biphasic and monophasic defibrillation, while an increased number of defibrillations was related to an increased 1-month survival rate and CPC (1, 2) only in the case of

  18. Long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children is not associated with decreased survival or with worse neurological outcome.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jean-Francois Brasme

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: The long time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma, one of the most frequent brain tumors in children, is the source of painful remorse and sometimes lawsuits. We analyzed its consequences for tumor stage, survival, and sequelae. PATIENTS AND METHODS: This retrospective population-based cohort study included all cases of pediatric medulloblastoma from a region of France between 1990 and 2005. We collected the demographic, clinical, and tumor data and analyzed the relations between the interval from symptom onset until diagnosis, initial disease stage, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. RESULTS: The median interval from symptom onset until diagnosis for the 166 cases was 65 days (interquartile range 31-121, range 3-457. A long interval (defined as longer than the median was associated with a lower frequency of metastasis in the univariate and multivariate analyses and with a larger tumor volume, desmoplastic histology, and longer survival in the univariate analysis, but not after adjustment for confounding factors. The time to diagnosis was significantly associated with IQ score among survivors. No significant relation was found between the time to diagnosis and neurological disability. In the 62 patients with metastases, a long prediagnosis interval was associated with a higher T stage, infiltration of the fourth ventricle floor, and incomplete surgical resection; it nonetheless did not influence survival significantly in this subgroup. CONCLUSIONS: We found complex and often inverse relations between time to diagnosis of medulloblastoma in children and initial severity factors, survival, and neuropsychological and neurological outcome. This interval appears due more to the nature of the tumor and its progression than to parental or medical factors. These conclusions should be taken into account in the information provided to parents and in expert assessments produced for malpractice claims.

  19. A Group Simulation of the Development of the Geologic Time Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bennington, J. Bret

    2000-01-01

    Explains how to demonstrate to students that the relative dating of rock layers is redundant. Uses two column diagrams to simulate stratigraphic sequences from two different geological time scales and asks students to complete the time scale. (YDS)

  20. Attractors of relaxation discrete-time systems with chaotic dynamics on a fast time scale

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Maslennikov, Oleg V.; Nekorkin, Vladimir I.

    2016-01-01

    In this work, a new type of relaxation systems is considered. Their prominent feature is that they comprise two distinct epochs, one is slow regular motion and another is fast chaotic motion. Unlike traditionally studied slow-fast systems that have smooth manifolds of slow motions in the phase space and fast trajectories between them, in this new type one observes, apart the same geometric objects, areas of transient chaos. Alternating periods of slow regular motions and fast chaotic ones as well as transitions between them result in a specific chaotic attractor with chaos on a fast time scale. We formulate basic properties of such attractors in the framework of discrete-time systems and consider several examples. Finally, we provide an important application of such systems, the neuronal electrical activity in the form of chaotic spike-burst oscillations.

  1. Entangled time in flocking: Multi-time-scale interaction reveals emergence of inherent noise.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niizato, Takayuki; Murakami, Hisashi

    2018-01-01

    Collective behaviors that seem highly ordered and result in collective alignment, such as schooling by fish and flocking by birds, arise from seamless shuffling (such as super-diffusion) and bustling inside groups (such as Lévy walks). However, such noisy behavior inside groups appears to preclude the collective behavior: intuitively, we expect that noisy behavior would lead to the group being destabilized and broken into small sub groups, and high alignment seems to preclude shuffling of neighbors. Although statistical modeling approaches with extrinsic noise, such as the maximum entropy approach, have provided some reasonable descriptions, they ignore the cognitive perspective of the individuals. In this paper, we try to explain how the group tendency, that is, high alignment, and highly noisy individual behavior can coexist in a single framework. The key aspect of our approach is multi-time-scale interaction emerging from the existence of an interaction radius that reflects short-term and long-term predictions. This multi-time-scale interaction is a natural extension of the attraction and alignment concept in many flocking models. When we apply this method in a two-dimensional model, various flocking behaviors, such as swarming, milling, and schooling, emerge. The approach also explains the appearance of super-diffusion, the Lévy walk in groups, and local equilibria. At the end of this paper, we discuss future developments, including extending our model to three dimensions.

  2. Hyperthermic survival of Chinese hamster ovary cells as a function of cellular population density at the time of plating

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Highfield, D.P.; Holahan, E.V.; Holahan, P.K.; Dewey, W.C.

    1984-01-01

    The survival of synchronous G 1 or asynchronous Chinese hamster ovary cells in vitro to heat treatment may depend on the cellular population density at the time of heating and/or as the cells are cultured after heating. The addition of lethally irradiated feeder cells may increase survival at 10 -3 by as much as 10- to 100-fold for a variety of conditions when cells are heated either in suspension culture or as monolayers with or without trypsinization. The protective effect associated with feeder cells appears to be associated with close cell-to-cell proximity. However, when cells are heated without trypsinization about 24 hr or later after plating, when adaptation to monolayer has occurred, the protective effect is reduced; i.e., addition of feeder cells enhances survival much less, for example, about 2- to 3-fold at 10 -2 -10 -3 survival. Also, the survival of a cell to heat is independent of whether the neighboring cell in a microcolony is destined to live or die. Finally, if protective effects associated with cell density do occur and are not controlled, serious artifacts can result as the interaction of heat and radiation is studied; for example, survival curves can be moved upward, and thus changed in shape as the number of cells plated is increased with an increase in the hyperthermic treatment or radiation dose following hyperthermia. Therefore, to understand mechanisms and to obtain information relevant to populations of cells in close proximity, such as those in vivo, these cellular population density effects should be considered and understood

  3. A race against time: can CO-OPs and provider start-ups survive in the health insurance marketplaces?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eggbeer, Bill

    2015-12-01

    > The Affordable Care Act's state and federal health insurance marketplaces, designed to provide affordable insurance coverage to individuals and small groups, are proving hostile territory to new market entrants. Efforts to inject competition into the marketplaces are being challenged by the wide-scale withdrawal o consumer-operated and oriented plans (CO-OPs). Meanwhile, premiums appear likely to increase for consumers as plans seek to balance medical losses. Flaws in the "Three R's" (reinsurance, risk corridors, and risk-adjustment) program are viewed as a threat to the survival of CO-OPs and start-ups.

  4. Using simulation to interpret a discrete time survival model in a complex biological system: fertility and lameness in dairy cows.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christopher D Hudson

    Full Text Available The ever-growing volume of data routinely collected and stored in everyday life presents researchers with a number of opportunities to gain insight and make predictions. This study aimed to demonstrate the usefulness in a specific clinical context of a simulation-based technique called probabilistic sensitivity analysis (PSA in interpreting the results of a discrete time survival model based on a large dataset of routinely collected dairy herd management data. Data from 12,515 dairy cows (from 39 herds were used to construct a multilevel discrete time survival model in which the outcome was the probability of a cow becoming pregnant during a given two day period of risk, and presence or absence of a recorded lameness event during various time frames relative to the risk period amongst the potential explanatory variables. A separate simulation model was then constructed to evaluate the wider clinical implications of the model results (i.e. the potential for a herd's incidence rate of lameness to influence its overall reproductive performance using PSA. Although the discrete time survival analysis revealed some relatively large associations between lameness events and risk of pregnancy (for example, occurrence of a lameness case within 14 days of a risk period was associated with a 25% reduction in the risk of the cow becoming pregnant during that risk period, PSA revealed that, when viewed in the context of a realistic clinical situation, a herd's lameness incidence rate is highly unlikely to influence its overall reproductive performance to a meaningful extent in the vast majority of situations. Construction of a simulation model within a PSA framework proved to be a very useful additional step to aid contextualisation of the results from a discrete time survival model, especially where the research is designed to guide on-farm management decisions at population (i.e. herd rather than individual level.

  5. Changes in channel morphology over human time scales [Chapter 32

    Science.gov (United States)

    John M. Buffington

    2012-01-01

    Rivers are exposed to changing environmental conditions over multiple spatial and temporal scales, with the imposed environmental conditions and response potential of the river modulated to varying degrees by human activity and our exploitation of natural resources. Watershed features that control river morphology include topography (valley slope and channel...

  6. Length and time scales of atmospheric moisture recycling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Ent, R.J.; Savenije, H.H.G.

    2011-01-01

    It is difficult to quantify the degree to which terrestrial evaporation supports the occurrence of precipitation within a certain study region (i.e. regional moisture recycling) due to the scale- and shape-dependence of regional moisture recycling ratios. In this paper we present a novel approach to

  7. Full-scale and time-scale heating experiments at Stripa: preliminary results. Technical project report No. 11

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cook, N.G.W.; Hood, M.

    1978-12-01

    Two full-scale heating experiments and a time-scale heating experiment have recently been started in granite 340 meters below surface. The purpose of the full-scale heating experiments is to assess the near-field effects of thermal loading for the design of an underground repository of nuclear wastes. That of the time-scale heating experiments is to obtain field data of the interaction between heaters and its effect on the rock mass during a period of about two years, which corresponds to about twenty years of full-scale operation. Geological features of the rock around each experiment have been mapped carefully, and temperatures, stresses and displacements induced in the rock by heating have been calculated in advance of the experiments. Some 800 different measurements are recorded at frequent intervals by a computer system situated underground. These data can be compared at any time with predictions made earlier on video display units underground

  8. From dinosaurs to modern bird diversity: extending the time scale of adaptive radiation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moen, Daniel; Morlon, Hélène

    2014-05-01

    What explains why some groups of organisms, like birds, are so species rich? And what explains their extraordinary ecological diversity, ranging from large, flightless birds to small migratory species that fly thousand of kilometers every year? These and similar questions have spurred great interest in adaptive radiation, the diversification of ecological traits in a rapidly speciating group of organisms. Although the initial formulation of modern concepts of adaptive radiation arose from consideration of the fossil record, rigorous attempts to identify adaptive radiation in the fossil record are still uncommon. Moreover, most studies of adaptive radiation concern groups that are less than 50 million years old. Thus, it is unclear how important adaptive radiation is over temporal scales that span much larger portions of the history of life. In this issue, Benson et al. test the idea of a "deep-time" adaptive radiation in dinosaurs, compiling and using one of the most comprehensive phylogenetic and body-size datasets for fossils. Using recent phylogenetic statistical methods, they find that in most clades of dinosaurs there is a strong signal of an "early burst" in body-size evolution, a predicted pattern of adaptive radiation in which rapid trait evolution happens early in a group's history and then slows down. They also find that body-size evolution did not slow down in the lineage leading to birds, hinting at why birds survived to the present day and diversified. This paper represents one of the most convincing attempts at understanding deep-time adaptive radiations.

  9. Global terrestrial biogeochemistry: Perturbations, interactions, and time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Braswell, B.H. Jr.

    1996-12-01

    Global biogeochemical processes are being perturbed by human activity, principally that which is associated with industrial activity and expansion of urban and agricultural complexes. Perturbations have manifested themselves at least since the beginning of the 19th Century, and include emissions of CO{sub 2} and other pollutants from fossil fuel combustion, agricultural emissions of reactive nitrogen, and direct disruption of ecosystem function through land conversion. These perturbations yield local impacts, but there are also global consequences that are the sum of local-scale influences. Several approaches to understanding the global-scale implications of chemical perturbations to the Earth system are discussed. The lifetime of anthropogenic CO{sub 2} in the atmosphere is an important concept for understanding the current and future commitment to an altered atmospheric heat budget. The importance of the terrestrial biogeochemistry relative to the lifetime of excess CO{sub 2} is demonstrated using dynamic, aggregated models of the global carbon cycle.

  10. Effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to lethal whole-body. gamma. irradiation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Onoue, M.; Uchida, K.; Yokokura, T.; Takahashi, T.; Mutai, M.

    1981-11-01

    The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body ..gamma.. irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice.

  11. Effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to lethal whole-body γ irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onoue, M.; Uchida, K.; Yokokura, T.; Takahashi, T.; Mutai, M.

    1981-01-01

    The effect of intestinal microflora on the survival time of mice exposed to 2-kR whole-body γ irradiation was studied using germfree, monoassociated, and conventionalized ICR mice. The germfree mice were monoassociated with 1 of 11 bacterial strains, which were isolated from the fresh feces of conventional mice, 2 weeks prior to irradiation. All mice died within 3 weeks after irradiation. Monoassociation with Fusobacterium sp., Streptococcus faecalis, Escherichia coli, or Pseudomonas sp. significantly reduced the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. In contrast, monoassociation with Clostridium sp., Bifidobacterium pseudolongum, or Lactobacillus acidophilus significantly prolonged the mean survival time compared to that of germfree mice. This suggests that the latter organisms may perform some activity to protect the mice from radiation injury. In this histopathological autopsy examination, the main lesions were hypocellularity in hematopoietic organs and hemorrhage in various organs. Neither karyorrhexis nor desquamation of intestinal mucosal cells was observed in any mice. From these observations, it is suggested that the death of these mice was related to hematopoietic damage. Bacterial invasion into various organs was observed in conventionalized and Pseudomonas-, E. coli-, or S. faecalis-monoassociated mice but not in Clostridium-, B. pseudolongum-, L. acidophilus-, or Fusobacterium-monoassociated mice

  12. Dynamics at Intermediate Time Scales and Management of Ecological Populations

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-05-10

    thinking about the importance of transients is to recognize the importance of serial autocorrelation in time of forcing terms over realistic ecological time...rich areas helps produce divergent home range responses bet - ween individuals from difference age classes. This model has broad applications for

  13. Grasping Deep Time with Scaled Space in Personal Environs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jacobsen, B. H.

    2014-01-01

    of modern man, the age of dinosaurs ended at 650 m and the Big Bang is 137 km away. This choice obviously makes mental calculations easy, and all of time fits inside a geographical area of moderate size and so helps the citizen gain ownership to this learning tool and hence to time. The idea was tested...

  14. The comparison of proportional hazards and accelerated failure time models in analyzing the first birth interval survival data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Faruk, Alfensi

    2018-03-01

    Survival analysis is a branch of statistics, which is focussed on the analysis of time- to-event data. In multivariate survival analysis, the proportional hazards (PH) is the most popular model in order to analyze the effects of several covariates on the survival time. However, the assumption of constant hazards in PH model is not always satisfied by the data. The violation of the PH assumption leads to the misinterpretation of the estimation results and decreasing the power of the related statistical tests. On the other hand, the accelerated failure time (AFT) models do not assume the constant hazards in the survival data as in PH model. The AFT models, moreover, can be used as the alternative to PH model if the constant hazards assumption is violated. The objective of this research was to compare the performance of PH model and the AFT models in analyzing the significant factors affecting the first birth interval (FBI) data in Indonesia. In this work, the discussion was limited to three AFT models which were based on Weibull, exponential, and log-normal distribution. The analysis by using graphical approach and a statistical test showed that the non-proportional hazards exist in the FBI data set. Based on the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the log-normal AFT model was the most appropriate model among the other considered models. Results of the best fitted model (log-normal AFT model) showed that the covariates such as women’s educational level, husband’s educational level, contraceptive knowledge, access to mass media, wealth index, and employment status were among factors affecting the FBI in Indonesia.

  15. Unique protein expression signatures of survival time in kidney renal clear cell carcinoma through a pan-cancer screening.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Han, Guangchun; Zhao, Wei; Song, Xiaofeng; Kwok-Shing Ng, Patrick; Karam, Jose A; Jonasch, Eric; Mills, Gordon B; Zhao, Zhongming; Ding, Zhiyong; Jia, Peilin

    2017-10-03

    In 2016, it is estimated that there will be 62,700 new cases of kidney cancer in the United States, and 14,240 patients will die from the disease. Because the incidence of kidney renal clear cell carcinoma (KIRC), the most common type of kidney cancer, is expected to continue to increase in the US, there is an urgent need to find effective diagnostic biomarkers for KIRC that could help earlier detection of and customized treatment strategies for the disease. Accordingly, in this study we systematically investigated KIRC's prognostic biomarkers for survival using the reverse phase protein array (RPPA) data and the high throughput sequencing data from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA). With comprehensive data available in TCGA, we systematically screened protein expression based survival biomarkers in 10 major cancer types, among which KIRC presented many protein prognostic biomarkers of survival time. This is in agreement with a previous report that expression level changes (mRNAs, microRNA and protein) may have a better performance for prognosis of KIRC. In this study, we also identified 52 prognostic genes for KIRC, many of which are involved in cell-cycle and cancer signaling, as well as 15 tumor-stage-specific prognostic biomarkers. Notably, we found fewer prognostic biomarkers for early-stage than for late-stage KIRC. Four biomarkers (the RPPA protein IDs: FASN, ACC1, Cyclin_B1 and Rad51) were found to be prognostic for survival based on both protein and mRNA expression data. Through pan-cancer screening, we found that many protein biomarkers were prognostic for patients' survival in KIRC. Stage-specific survival biomarkers in KIRC were also identified. Our study indicated that these protein biomarkers might have potential clinical value in terms of predicting survival in KIRC patients and developing individualized treatment strategies. Importantly, we found many biomarkers in KIRC at both the mRNA expression level and the protein expression level. These

  16. Relationships among the cervical mucus urea and acetone, accuracy of insemination timing, and sperm survival in Holstein cows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beran, J; Stádník, L; Ducháček, J; Okrouhlá, M; Doležalová, M; Kadlecová, V; Ptáček, M

    2013-11-01

    The objectives of this study were to evaluate the relationships among urea and acetone content in cows' cervical mucus (CM), its crystallization type (CT) and sperm survival (SS) after timed AI. Samples of CM were collected from 192 Holstein cows treated by Ovsynch(®) protocol. Analysis of the urea and acetone content for identification of the metabolic status, the arborization test for evaluation of insemination timing and the short-term heat test of SS for assessment of its suitability as a biological matrix were performed. The data set was analyzed by the GLM procedure using SAS(®). The results documented the existence of substantial differences in individual response to the Ovsynch(®) protocol causing insemination of 55.2% cows at an inappropriate time. The urea content was found as a possible indicator of a cow's metabolism and/or of insemination timing, concentrations of less than 500 mg/L corresponded (Pacetone content on SS were determined. The greatest values of SS were detected in cows with an expected response to precisely timed oestrus documented by the corresponding CT. Greater values of urea (>260 mg/L) and acetone (>5mg/L) negatively affected SS as well (P<0.05-0.01). The results confirmed that the accuracy of insemination timing can be affected by the metabolism intensity, just as CM quality directly influences sperm survival. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  17. Interplay between multiple length and time scales in complex ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Administrator

    Processes in complex chemical systems, such as macromolecules, electrolytes, interfaces, ... by processes operating on a multiplicity of length .... real time. The design and interpretation of femto- second experiments has required considerable ...

  18. Disparities in breast cancer tumor characteristics, treatment, time to treatment, and survival probability among African American and white women.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Foy, Kevin Chu; Fisher, James L; Lustberg, Maryam B; Gray, Darrell M; DeGraffinreid, Cecilia R; Paskett, Electra D

    2018-01-01

    African American (AA) women have a 42% higher breast cancer death rate compared to white women despite recent advancements in management of the disease. We examined racial differences in clinical and tumor characteristics, treatment and survival in patients diagnosed with breast cancer between 2005 and 2014 at a single institution, the James Cancer Hospital, and who were included in the Arthur G. James Cancer Hospital and Richard J. Solove Research Institute Cancer Registry in Columbus OH. Statistical analyses included likelihood ratio chi-square tests for differences in proportions, as well as univariate and multivariate Cox proportional hazards regressions to examine associations between race and overall and progression-free survival probabilities. AA women made up 10.2% (469 of 4593) the sample. Average time to onset of treatment after diagnosis was almost two times longer in AA women compared to white women (62.0 days vs 35.5 days, p  triple negative and late stage breast cancer, and were less likely to receive surgery, especially mastectomy and reconstruction following mastectomy. After adjustment for confounding factors (age, grade, and surgery), overall survival probability was significantly associated with race (HR = 1.33; 95% CI 1.03-1.72). These findings highlight the need for efforts focused on screening and receipt of prompt treatment among AA women diagnosed with breast cancer.

  19. Heterosis and heritability estimates for the survival of the Pacific white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) under the commercial scale ponds

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LU Xia; LUAN Sheng; CAO Baoxiang; SUI Juan; DAI Ping; MENG Xianhong; LUO Kun; KONG Jie

    2017-01-01

    The aim of the present study is to detect the potential of the base population from diallel crosses of eight introduced strains of the Pacific white shrimp (Litopenaeus vannamei) for improving the yield. Heterosis and heritability were estimated for pond survival at commercial farm conditions for the base population that included 207 full-sib families from a nested mating design by artificial insemination. Among all the hybrids, the heterosis ranged from–11.37%(UA1×UA2) to 20.53%(UA3×SIN) with an average of 0.953%. The results showed that more than half of the hybrids (51.85%) have negative heterosis for survival rate, but most of the hybrids with positive heterosis have high estimates. The high proportion of negative heterosis for survival rate reminders us that the survival trait also should be considered in the crossbreeding program to avoid yield decrease. However, high positive heterosis manifested in most of the hybrids for survival indicates the usefulness of these hybrids for improving the survival to obtain higher yield by crossbreeding in this breeding program. The heritability estimate for pond survival was 0.092±0.043 when genetic groups were included in the pedigree, and it was significantly different from zero (P<0.05). The results from this study also indicated that significant improvement for survival is possible through selection in L. vannamei.

  20. Just in Time Strategy and Financial Performance of Small Scale Industry in Ogun State: A Study of ADO-ODO/OTA Local Government

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Patrick Amaechi Egbunike

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Many manufacturing firms have decided to implement just in time technique as a strategic cost management to survive and remain competitive in their business environment. The study examines how just in time technique has assisted in reducing inventory cost management and improve the firm profit level. The specific objective is to ascertain the influence of purchases and sales on return on equity of small scale manufacturing industry. Survey design was used for the study. Sample frame was purposively selected for convenience sake. Data was collected though secondary source. Regression analysis was employed to analyze the data. The study found positive relationship between just in time implementation and profit level of small scale business industry. We recommend other small scale businesses that have not started implementing just in time strategy to start the strategy. We encourage future researcher to examine the efficiency of just in time strategy among petty small scale trader in our urban centers.

  1. Significantly improved survival time in pigs with complete liver ischemia treated with a novel bioartificial liver

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Flendrig, L. M.; Calise, F.; Di Florio, E.; Mancini, A.; Ceriello, A.; Santaniello, W.; Mezza, E.; Sicoli, F.; Belleza, G.; Bracco, A.; Cozzolino, S.; Scala, D.; Mazzone, M.; Fattore, M.; Gonzales, E.; Chamuleau, R. A.

    1999-01-01

    Aim of the study was to evaluate treatment efficacy and safety of a scaled-up version of our porcine hepatocytes based BAL system in pigs with complete liver ischemia (LIS). Thirty-one pigs underwent total devascularization of the liver (LIS) by termino-lateral porta-caval shunts and sutures around

  2. First recovery in anorexia nervosa patients in the long-term course: a discrete-time survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herzog, W; Schellberg, D; Deter, H C

    1997-02-01

    The results of a 12-year follow-up study of occurrence and timing of first recovery in 69 hospitalized patients with severe anorexia nervosa (AN) are presented. For the first time discrete-time survival analysis methods were used to determine the likelihood of recovery in AN patients. Furthermore, predictors gleaned from pretreatment-posttreatment studies of long-term outcome in AN could be evaluated as to their effect on a change in the time course structure of the likelihood of first recovery. Results show that AN condition did not improve until after 6 years after the first inpatient treatment in 50% of patients. However, a restricter-type AN and low serum creatinine levels were predictors for earlier recovery. One specific effect was that AN patients who show purging behavior in combination with additional social disturbances have a lower chance of recovering. The use of discrete-time survival analysis methodology in further prospective studies will contribute to the development of more tailored treatment of AN, which also takes the individual phase of illness and specific aspects of the symptomatology into account.

  3. [Construction of the Time Management Scale and examination of the influence of time management on psychological stress response].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Imura, Tomoya; Takamura, Masahiro; Okazaki, Yoshihiro; Tokunaga, Satoko

    2016-10-01

    We developed a scale to measure time management and assessed its reliability and validity. We then used this scale to examine the impact of time management on psychological stress response. In Study 1-1, we developed the scale and assessed its internal consistency and criterion-related validity. Findings from a factor analysis revealed three elements of time management, “time estimation,” “time utilization,” and “taking each moment as it comes.” In Study 1-2, we assessed the scale’s test-retest reliability. In Study 1-3, we assessed the validity of the constructed scale. The results indicate that the time management scale has good reliability and validity. In Study 2, we performed a covariance structural analysis to verify our model that hypothesized that time management influences perceived control of time and psychological stress response, and perceived control of time influences psychological stress response. The results showed that time estimation increases the perceived control of time, which in turn decreases stress response. However, we also found that taking each moment as it comes reduces perceived control of time, which in turn increases stress response.

  4. Finite-Time Stability of Large-Scale Systems with Interval Time-Varying Delay in Interconnection

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. La-inchua

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigate finite-time stability of a class of nonlinear large-scale systems with interval time-varying delays in interconnection. Time-delay functions are continuous but not necessarily differentiable. Based on Lyapunov stability theory and new integral bounding technique, finite-time stability of large-scale systems with interval time-varying delays in interconnection is derived. The finite-time stability criteria are delays-dependent and are given in terms of linear matrix inequalities which can be solved by various available algorithms. Numerical examples are given to illustrate effectiveness of the proposed method.

  5. Perception of short time scale intervals in a hypnotic virtuoso

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Noreika, Valdas; Falter, Christine M.; Arstila, Valtteri; Wearden, John H.; Kallio, Sakari

    2012-01-01

    Previous studies showed that hypnotized individuals underestimate temporal intervals in the range of several seconds to tens of minutes. However, no previous work has investigated whether duration perception is equally disorderly when shorter time intervals are probed. In this study, duration

  6. Dynamic modelling of heavy metals - time scales and target loads

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Posch, M.; Vries, de W.

    2009-01-01

    Over the past decade steady-state methods have been developed to assess critical loads of metals avoiding long-term risks in view of food quality and eco-toxicological effects on organisms in soils and surface waters. However, dynamic models are needed to estimate the times involved in attaining a

  7. Time Scales in the JPL and CfA Ephemerides

    Science.gov (United States)

    Standish, E. M.

    1998-01-01

    Over the past decades, the IAU has repeatedly attempted to correct its definition of the basic fundamental argument used in the emphemerides. Finally, they have defined a time system which is physically possible, according to the accepted standard theory of gravitation.

  8. Coherent spectroscopies on ultrashort time and length scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Schneider C.

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available Three spectroscopic techniques are presented that provide simultaneous spatial and temporal resolution: modified confocal microscopy with heterodyne detection, space-time-resolved spectroscopy using coherent control concepts, and coherent two-dimensional nano-spectroscopy. Latest experimental results are discussed.

  9. Does expressive timing in music performance scale proportionally with tempo?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Desain, P.; Honing, H.

    1994-01-01

    Evidence is presented that expressive timing in music is not relationally invariant with global tempo. Our results stem from an analysis of repeated performances of Beethoven's variations on a Paisiello theme. Recordings were made of two pianists playing the pieces at three tempi. In contrast with

  10. Just in Time Strategy and Financial Performance of Small Scale Industry in Ogun State: A Study of ADO-ODO/OTA Local Government

    OpenAIRE

    Patrick Amaechi Egbunike; Osazee Graham Imade

    2017-01-01

    Many manufacturing firms have decided to implement just in time technique as a strategic cost management to survive and remain competitive in their business environment. The study examines how just in time technique has assisted in reducing inventory cost management and improve the firm profit level. The specific objective is to ascertain the influence of purchases and sales on return on equity of small scale manufacturing industry. Survey design was used for the study. Sample frame was purpo...

  11. Modelling financial markets with agents competing on different time scales and with different amount of information

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wohlmuth, Johannes; Andersen, Jørgen Vitting

    2006-05-01

    We use agent-based models to study the competition among investors who use trading strategies with different amount of information and with different time scales. We find that mixing agents that trade on the same time scale but with different amount of information has a stabilizing impact on the large and extreme fluctuations of the market. Traders with the most information are found to be more likely to arbitrage traders who use less information in the decision making. On the other hand, introducing investors who act on two different time scales has a destabilizing effect on the large and extreme price movements, increasing the volatility of the market. Closeness in time scale used in the decision making is found to facilitate the creation of local trends. The larger the overlap in commonly shared information the more the traders in a mixed system with different time scales are found to profit from the presence of traders acting at another time scale than themselves.

  12. Structure and dating errors in the geologic time scale and periodicity in mass extinctions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stothers, Richard B.

    1989-01-01

    Structure in the geologic time scale reflects a partly paleontological origin. As a result, ages of Cenozoic and Mesozoic stage boundaries exhibit a weak 28-Myr periodicity that is similar to the strong 26-Myr periodicity detected in mass extinctions of marine life by Raup and Sepkoski. Radiometric dating errors in the geologic time scale, to which the mass extinctions are stratigraphically tied, do not necessarily lessen the likelihood of a significant periodicity in mass extinctions, but do spread the acceptable values of the period over the range 25-27 Myr for the Harland et al. time scale or 25-30 Myr for the DNAG time scale. If the Odin time scale is adopted, acceptable periods fall between 24 and 33 Myr, but are not robust against dating errors. Some indirect evidence from independently-dated flood-basalt volcanic horizons tends to favor the Odin time scale.

  13. Qualitative aspects of Volterra integro-dynamic system on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vasile Lupulescu

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper deals with the resolvent, asymptotic stability and boundedness of the solution of time-varying Volterra integro-dynamic system on time scales in which the coefficient matrix is not necessarily stable. We generalize at time scale some known properties about asymptotic behavior and boundedness from the continuous case. Some new results for discrete case are obtained.

  14. Time-scale invariance as an emergent property in a perceptron with realistic, noisy neurons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Buhusi, Catalin V; Oprisan, Sorinel A

    2013-05-01

    In most species, interval timing is time-scale invariant: errors in time estimation scale up linearly with the estimated duration. In mammals, time-scale invariance is ubiquitous over behavioral, lesion, and pharmacological manipulations. For example, dopaminergic drugs induce an immediate, whereas cholinergic drugs induce a gradual, scalar change in timing. Behavioral theories posit that time-scale invariance derives from particular computations, rules, or coding schemes. In contrast, we discuss a simple neural circuit, the perceptron, whose output neurons fire in a clockwise fashion based on the pattern of coincidental activation of its input neurons. We show numerically that time-scale invariance emerges spontaneously in a perceptron with realistic neurons, in the presence of noise. Under the assumption that dopaminergic drugs modulate the firing of input neurons, and that cholinergic drugs modulate the memory representation of the criterion time, we show that a perceptron with realistic neurons reproduces the pharmacological clock and memory patterns, and their time-scale invariance, in the presence of noise. These results suggest that rather than being a signature of higher order cognitive processes or specific computations related to timing, time-scale invariance may spontaneously emerge in a massively connected brain from the intrinsic noise of neurons and circuits, thus providing the simplest explanation for the ubiquity of scale invariance of interval timing. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  15. A Study on Time-Scales Ratio and Turbulent Prandtl Number in Ducts of Industrial Applications

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rokni, Masoud

    2006-01-01

    is solved using a two-equation heat flux model. The computed results compare satisfactory with the available experimental data. The time-scale ratio R is defined as the ratio between the dynamic time-scale (k/ε) and the scalar time-scale(0.5θθ/εθ). Based on existing DNS data and calculations in this work...... of heat exchangers for various applications area....

  16. Time scales of solar microwave bursts and scenarios of flare enregy release

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krueger, A.; Kliem, B.; Hildebrandt, J.

    1989-01-01

    Based on earlier observational evidence that characteristic time scales of different solar microwave burst types are distributed over a wide range (10 -3 -10 4 sec), different mechanisms of energy release have been considered to account for the impulsive flux increase (time scale 3 sec). Among different competing processes the coalescence instability is found to be a promising candidate to combine sufficiently short time scales with substantial energy release. (author). 20 refs.; 1 fig

  17. Waiting Time from Diagnosis to Treatment has no Impact on Survival in Patients with Esophageal Cancer

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Visser, E.; Leeftink, Anne Greetje; van Rossum, P.S.N.; Siesling, Sabine; van Hillegersberg, R.; Ruurda, J.P.

    2016-01-01

    Background Waiting time from diagnosis to treatment has emerged as an important quality indicator in cancer care. This study was designed to determine the impact of waiting time on long-term outcome of patients with esophageal cancer who are treated with neoadjuvant therapy followed by surgery or

  18. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work?

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn

    2013-01-01

    To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work.......To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work....

  19. Long time scale simulation of a grain boundary in copper

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Pedersen, A.; Henkelman, G.; Schiøtz, Jakob

    2009-01-01

    A general, twisted and tilted, grain boundary in copper has been simulated using the adaptive kinetic Monte Carlo method to study the atomistic structure of the non-crystalline region and the mechanism of annealing events that occur at low temperature. The simulated time interval spanned 67 mu s...... was also observed. In the final low-energy configurations, the thickness of the region separating the crystalline grains corresponds to just one atomic layer, in good agreement with reported experimental observations. The simulated system consists of 1307 atoms and atomic interactions were described using...

  20. Vitamin D Depletion in Pregnancy Decreases Survival Time, Oxygen Saturation, Lung Weight and Body Weight in Preterm Rat Offspring.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sine Lykkedegn

    Full Text Available Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OHD determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19 or day 22 (E22, placental weight, birth weight, crown-rump-length (CRL, oxygenation (SaO2 at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR. S-25(OHD was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, p<0.0001. Compared to the controls, E19 VDL pups had lower birth weight (2.13 vs. 2.29g, p<0.001, lung weight (0.09 vs. 0.10g, p = 0.002, SaO2 (54% vs. 69%, p = 0.002 as well as reduced survival time (0.50 vs. 1.25h, p<0.0001. At E22, the VDL-induced pulmonary differences were leveled out, but VDL pups had lower CRL (4.0 vs. 4.5cm, p<0.0001. The phospholipid levels and the surfactant protein mRNA expression did not differ between the dietary groups. In conclusion, Vitamin D depletion led to lower oxygenation and reduced survival time in the preterm offspring, associated with reduced lung weight and birth weight. Further studies of vitamin D depletion in respiratory insufficiency in preterm neonates are warranted.

  1. Global Exponential Stability of Delayed Cohen-Grossberg BAM Neural Networks with Impulses on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yongkun Li

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available Based on the theory of calculus on time scales, the homeomorphism theory, Lyapunov functional method, and some analysis techniques, sufficient conditions are obtained for the existence, uniqueness, and global exponential stability of the equilibrium point of Cohen-Grossberg bidirectional associative memory (BAM neural networks with distributed delays and impulses on time scales. This is the first time applying the time-scale calculus theory to unify the discrete-time and continuous-time Cohen-Grossberg BAM neural network with impulses under the same framework.

  2. A Novel Multiple-Time Scale Integrator for the Hybrid Monte Carlo Algorithm

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kamleh, Waseem

    2011-01-01

    Hybrid Monte Carlo simulations that implement the fermion action using multiple terms are commonly used. By the nature of their formulation they involve multiple integration time scales in the evolution of the system through simulation time. These different scales are usually dealt with by the Sexton-Weingarten nested leapfrog integrator. In this scheme the choice of time scales is somewhat restricted as each time step must be an exact multiple of the next smallest scale in the sequence. A novel generalisation of the nested leapfrog integrator is introduced which allows for far greater flexibility in the choice of time scales, as each scale now must only be an exact multiple of the smallest step size.

  3. Time scales and the problem of radioactive waste

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Goble, R.L.

    1984-01-01

    The author argues that decisions about future nuclear development can be made essentially independent of waste management considerations for the next 20 years. His arguments are based on five propositions: 1 Risks and costs of storing spent fuel or high-level waste and transuranics are lower than other directly comparable risks and costs of operating a reactor. 2 Storage of mill tailings is the most serious long-term waste problem; it is not serious enough to rule out the use of nuclear power. 3 There are compelling reasons for beginning to implement a waste management program now. 4 It is important to separate the problem of providing temporary storage from that of finding permanent repositories. 5 A prudent waste management strategy, by 2000, will have identified and evaluated more than enough repository space for the waste generated by that time, independent of the decision made about nuclear futures. 13 references, 4 figures, 4 tables

  4. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

    2017-07-28

    Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  5. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justine B. Nasejje

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Random survival forest (RSF models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. Methods In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points. The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points. Results The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Conclusion Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  6. RECENT GEODYNAMICS OF FAULT ZONES: FAULTING IN REAL TIME SCALE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu. O. Kuzmin

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Recent deformation processes taking place in real time are analyzed on the basis of data on fault zones which were collected by long-term detailed geodetic survey studies with application of field methods and satellite monitoring.A new category of recent crustal movements is described and termed as parametrically induced tectonic strain in fault zones. It is shown that in the fault zones located in seismically active and aseismic regions, super intensive displacements of the crust (5 to 7 cm per year, i.e. (5 to 7·10–5 per year occur due to very small external impacts of natural or technogenic / industrial origin.The spatial discreteness of anomalous deformation processes is established along the strike of the regional Rechitsky fault in the Pripyat basin. It is concluded that recent anomalous activity of the fault zones needs to be taken into account in defining regional regularities of geodynamic processes on the basis of real-time measurements.The paper presents results of analyses of data collected by long-term (20 to 50 years geodetic surveys in highly seismically active regions of Kopetdag, Kamchatka and California. It is evidenced by instrumental geodetic measurements of recent vertical and horizontal displacements in fault zones that deformations are ‘paradoxically’ deviating from the inherited movements of the past geological periods.In terms of the recent geodynamics, the ‘paradoxes’ of high and low strain velocities are related to a reliable empirical fact of the presence of extremely high local velocities of deformations in the fault zones (about 10–5 per year and above, which take place at the background of slow regional deformations which velocities are lower by the order of 2 to 3. Very low average annual velocities of horizontal deformation are recorded in the seismic regions of Kopetdag and Kamchatka and in the San Andreas fault zone; they amount to only 3 to 5 amplitudes of the earth tidal deformations per year.A

  7. Salinization of aquifers at the regional scale by marine transgression: Time scales and processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Armandine Les Landes, A.; Davy, P.; Aquilina, L.

    2014-12-01

    Saline fluids with moderate concentrations have been sampled and reported in the Armorican basement at the regional scale (northwestern France). The horizontal and vertical distributions of high chloride concentrations (60-1400mg/L) at the regional scale support the marine origin and provide constraints on the age of these saline fluids. The current distribution of fresh and "saline" groundwater at depth is the result mostly of processes occurring at geological timescales - seawater intrusion processes followed by fresh groundwater flushing -, and only slightly of recent anthropogenic activities. In this study, we focus on seawater intrusion mechanisms in continental aquifers. We argue that one of the most efficient processes in macrotidal environments is the gravity-driven downconing instability below coastal salinized rivers. 2-D numerical experiments have been used to quantify this process according to four main parameter types: (1) the groundwater system permeability, (2) the salinity degree of the river, (3) the river width and slope, and (4) the tidal amplitude. A general expression of the salinity inflow rates have been derived, which has been used to estimate groundwater salinization rates in Brittany, given the geomorphological and environmental characteristics (drainage basin area, river widths and slopes, tidal range, aquifer permeability). We found that downconing below coastal rivers entail very high saline rates, indicating that this process play a major role in the salinization of regional aquifers. This is also likely to be an issue in the context of climate change, where sea-level rise is expected.

  8. Neural Computations in a Dynamical System with Multiple Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yuanyuan Mi

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Neural systems display rich short-term dynamics at various levels, e.g., spike-frequencyadaptation (SFA at single neurons, and short-term facilitation (STF and depression (STDat neuronal synapses. These dynamical features typically covers a broad range of time scalesand exhibit large diversity in different brain regions. It remains unclear what the computationalbenefit for the brain to have such variability in short-term dynamics is. In this study, we proposethat the brain can exploit such dynamical features to implement multiple seemingly contradictorycomputations in a single neural circuit. To demonstrate this idea, we use continuous attractorneural network (CANN as a working model and include STF, SFA and STD with increasing timeconstants in their dynamics. Three computational tasks are considered, which are persistent activity,adaptation, and anticipative tracking. These tasks require conflicting neural mechanisms, andhence cannot be implemented by a single dynamical feature or any combination with similar timeconstants. However, with properly coordinated STF, SFA and STD, we show that the network isable to implement the three computational tasks concurrently. We hope this study will shed lighton the understanding of how the brain orchestrates its rich dynamics at various levels to realizediverse cognitive functions.

  9. Marine Dispersal Scales Are Congruent over Evolutionary and Ecological Time

    KAUST Repository

    Pinsky, Malin L.

    2016-12-15

    The degree to which offspring remain near their parents or disperse widely is critical for understanding population dynamics, evolution, and biogeography, and for designing conservation actions. In the ocean, most estimates suggesting short-distance dispersal are based on direct ecological observations of dispersing individuals, while indirect evolutionary estimates often suggest substantially greater homogeneity among populations. Reconciling these two approaches and their seemingly competing perspectives on dispersal has been a major challenge. Here we show for the first time that evolutionary and ecological measures of larval dispersal can closely agree by using both to estimate the distribution of dispersal distances. In orange clownfish (Amphiprion percula) populations in Kimbe Bay, Papua New Guinea, we found that evolutionary dispersal kernels were 17 km (95% confidence interval: 12–24 km) wide, while an exhaustive set of direct larval dispersal observations suggested kernel widths of 27 km (19–36 km) or 19 km (15–27 km) across two years. The similarity between these two approaches suggests that ecological and evolutionary dispersal kernels can be equivalent, and that the apparent disagreement between direct and indirect measurements can be overcome. Our results suggest that carefully applied evolutionary methods, which are often less expensive, can be broadly relevant for understanding ecological dispersal across the tree of life.

  10. Updating the planetary time scale: focus on Mars

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tanaka, Kenneth L.; Quantin-Nataf, Cathy

    2013-01-01

    Formal stratigraphic systems have been developed for the surface materials of the Moon, Mars, Mercury, and the Galilean satellite Ganymede. These systems are based on geologic mapping, which establishes relative ages of surfaces delineated by superposition, morphology, impact crater densities, and other relations and features. Referent units selected from the mapping determine time-stratigraphic bases and/or representative materials characteristic of events and periods for definition of chronologic units. Absolute ages of these units in some cases can be estimated using crater size-frequency data. For the Moon, the chronologic units and cratering record are calibrated by radiometric ages measured from samples collected from the lunar surface. Model ages for other cratered planetary surfaces are constructed primarily by estimating cratering rates relative to that of the Moon. Other cratered bodies with estimated surface ages include Venus and the Galilean satellites of Jupiter. New global geologic mapping and crater dating studies of Mars are resulting in more accurate and detailed reconstructions of its geologic history.

  11. Science at the Time-scale of the Electron

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murnane, Margaret

    2010-03-01

    Replace this text with your abstract Ever since the invention of the laser 50 years ago and its application in nonlinear optics, scientists have been striving to extend coherent laser beams into the x-ray region of the spectrum. Very recently however, the prospects for tabletop coherent sources, with attosecond pulse durations, at very short wavelengths even in the hard x-ray region of the spectrum at wavelengths movie of how electron orbitals in a molecule change shape as a molecule breaks apart, following how fast a magnetic material can flip orientation, understanding how fast heat flows in a nanocircuit, or building a microscope without lenses. [4pt] [1] T. Popmintchev et al., ``Phase matched upconversion of coherent ultrafast laser light into the soft and hard x-ray regions of the spectrum'', PNAS 106, 10516 (2009). [0pt] [2] C. LaOVorakiat et al., ``Ultrafast Soft X-Ray Magneto-Optics at the M-edge Using a Tabletop High-Harmonic Source'', Physical Review Letters 103, 257402 (2009). [0pt] [3] M. Siemens et al. ``Measurement of quasi-ballistic heat transport across nanoscale interfaces using ultrafast coherent soft x-ray beams'', Nature Materials 9, 26 (2010). [0pt] [4] K. Raines et al., ``Three-dimensional structure determination from a single view,'' Nature 463, 214 (2010). [0pt] [5] W. Li et al., ``Time-resolved Probing of Dynamics in Polyatomic Molecules using High Harmonic Generation'', Science 322, 1207 (2008).

  12. Probabilistic eruption forecasting at short and long time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Marzocchi, Warner; Bebbington, Mark S.

    2012-10-01

    Any effective volcanic risk mitigation strategy requires a scientific assessment of the future evolution of a volcanic system and its eruptive behavior. Some consider the onus should be on volcanologists to provide simple but emphatic deterministic forecasts. This traditional way of thinking, however, does not deal with the implications of inherent uncertainties, both aleatoric and epistemic, that are inevitably present in observations, monitoring data, and interpretation of any natural system. In contrast to deterministic predictions, probabilistic eruption forecasting attempts to quantify these inherent uncertainties utilizing all available information to the extent that it can be relied upon and is informative. As with many other natural hazards, probabilistic eruption forecasting is becoming established as the primary scientific basis for planning rational risk mitigation actions: at short-term (hours to weeks or months), it allows decision-makers to prioritize actions in a crisis; and at long-term (years to decades), it is the basic component for land use and emergency planning. Probabilistic eruption forecasting consists of estimating the probability of an eruption event and where it sits in a complex multidimensional time-space-magnitude framework. In this review, we discuss the key developments and features of models that have been used to address the problem.

  13. Biochemical recovery time scales in elderly patients with osteomalacia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allen, S C; Raut, S

    2004-01-01

    Osteomalacia is not rare in the UK and climatically similar countries, particularly in elderly people and those of Asian descent. Overt clinical osteomalacia is usually treated with a loading dose of vitamin D, followed by a regular supplement. However, little is known of the time taken to reach a stable biochemical state after starting treatment. Such information would shed light on the duration of the bone remineralization phase and guide decisions on the length of follow-up. To address this we conducted a 2-year follow-up study of 42 patients (35 female, mean age 80.8 years) with biopsy proven osteomalacia treated with a standard replacement regimen and general nutritional support. Although normocalcaemia was attained within 4 weeks the mean values continued to rise, to a mid-range plateau at 52 weeks. The phosphate and alkaline phosphatase values also took at least a year to reach a stable mean, with a slight further trend towards the mid-range for the entire 104 weeks. The mean serum albumin also rose throughout the first 52 weeks, indicating an effective response to the general nutritional support measures. Our observations suggest that the dynamic relationship between calcium, phosphate and bone requires at least a year, and probably longer, to reach an equilibrium after treatment for osteomalacia in elderly patients. The findings emphasize the need for close medical and social follow-up in this clinical context. PMID:15520146

  14. From dinosaurs to modern bird diversity: extending the time scale of adaptive radiation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel Moen

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available What explains why some groups of organisms, like birds, are so species rich? And what explains their extraordinary ecological diversity, ranging from large, flightless birds to small migratory species that fly thousand of kilometers every year? These and similar questions have spurred great interest in adaptive radiation, the diversification of ecological traits in a rapidly speciating group of organisms. Although the initial formulation of modern concepts of adaptive radiation arose from consideration of the fossil record, rigorous attempts to identify adaptive radiation in the fossil record are still uncommon. Moreover, most studies of adaptive radiation concern groups that are less than 50 million years old. Thus, it is unclear how important adaptive radiation is over temporal scales that span much larger portions of the history of life. In this issue, Benson et al. test the idea of a "deep-time" adaptive radiation in dinosaurs, compiling and using one of the most comprehensive phylogenetic and body-size datasets for fossils. Using recent phylogenetic statistical methods, they find that in most clades of dinosaurs there is a strong signal of an "early burst" in body-size evolution, a predicted pattern of adaptive radiation in which rapid trait evolution happens early in a group's history and then slows down. They also find that body-size evolution did not slow down in the lineage leading to birds, hinting at why birds survived to the present day and diversified. This paper represents one of the most convincing attempts at understanding deep-time adaptive radiations.

  15. Expectation-maximization algorithms for learning a finite mixture of univariate survival time distributions from partially specified class values

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Youngrok [Iowa State Univ., Ames, IA (United States)

    2013-05-15

    Heterogeneity exists on a data set when samples from di erent classes are merged into the data set. Finite mixture models can be used to represent a survival time distribution on heterogeneous patient group by the proportions of each class and by the survival time distribution within each class as well. The heterogeneous data set cannot be explicitly decomposed to homogeneous subgroups unless all the samples are precisely labeled by their origin classes; such impossibility of decomposition is a barrier to overcome for estimating nite mixture models. The expectation-maximization (EM) algorithm has been used to obtain maximum likelihood estimates of nite mixture models by soft-decomposition of heterogeneous samples without labels for a subset or the entire set of data. In medical surveillance databases we can find partially labeled data, that is, while not completely unlabeled there is only imprecise information about class values. In this study we propose new EM algorithms that take advantages of using such partial labels, and thus incorporate more information than traditional EM algorithms. We particularly propose four variants of the EM algorithm named EM-OCML, EM-PCML, EM-HCML and EM-CPCML, each of which assumes a specific mechanism of missing class values. We conducted a simulation study on exponential survival trees with five classes and showed that the advantages of incorporating substantial amount of partially labeled data can be highly signi cant. We also showed model selection based on AIC values fairly works to select the best proposed algorithm on each specific data set. A case study on a real-world data set of gastric cancer provided by Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program showed a superiority of EM-CPCML to not only the other proposed EM algorithms but also conventional supervised, unsupervised and semi-supervised learning algorithms.

  16. Fission time-scale from the measurement of pre-scission light ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    and hence can only probe a part of the fission time distribution. .... with the conclusion of recent fission time-scale measurements using the fission probability ... using the statistical model code JOANNE2 suitably modified to include the GDR ...

  17. A comparative study of machine learning methods for time-to-event survival data for radiomics risk modelling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leger, Stefan; Zwanenburg, Alex; Pilz, Karoline; Lohaus, Fabian; Linge, Annett; Zöphel, Klaus; Kotzerke, Jörg; Schreiber, Andreas; Tinhofer, Inge; Budach, Volker; Sak, Ali; Stuschke, Martin; Balermpas, Panagiotis; Rödel, Claus; Ganswindt, Ute; Belka, Claus; Pigorsch, Steffi; Combs, Stephanie E; Mönnich, David; Zips, Daniel; Krause, Mechthild; Baumann, Michael; Troost, Esther G C; Löck, Steffen; Richter, Christian

    2017-10-16

    Radiomics applies machine learning algorithms to quantitative imaging data to characterise the tumour phenotype and predict clinical outcome. For the development of radiomics risk models, a variety of different algorithms is available and it is not clear which one gives optimal results. Therefore, we assessed the performance of 11 machine learning algorithms combined with 12 feature selection methods by the concordance index (C-Index), to predict loco-regional tumour control (LRC) and overall survival for patients with head and neck squamous cell carcinoma. The considered algorithms are able to deal with continuous time-to-event survival data. Feature selection and model building were performed on a multicentre cohort (213 patients) and validated using an independent cohort (80 patients). We found several combinations of machine learning algorithms and feature selection methods which achieve similar results, e.g. C-Index = 0.71 and BT-COX: C-Index = 0.70 in combination with Spearman feature selection. Using the best performing models, patients were stratified into groups of low and high risk of recurrence. Significant differences in LRC were obtained between both groups on the validation cohort. Based on the presented analysis, we identified a subset of algorithms which should be considered in future radiomics studies to develop stable and clinically relevant predictive models for time-to-event endpoints.

  18. Human umbilical-cord-blood mononucleated cells enhance the survival of lethally irradiated mice. Dosage and the window of time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kovalenko, Olga A.; Ende, Norman; Azzam, Edouard I.

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to evaluate the window of time and dose of human umbilical-cord-blood (HUCB) mononucleated cells necessary for successful treatment of radiation injury in mice. Female A/J mice (27-30 weeks old) were exposed to an absorbed dose of 9-10 Gy of 137 Cs γ-rays delivered acutely to the whole body. They were treated either with 1 × 10 8 or 2 × 10 8 HUCB mononucleated cells at 24-52 h after the irradiation. The antibiotic Levaquin was applied 4 h postirradiation. The increased dose of cord-blood cells resulted in enhanced survival. The enhancement of survival in animals that received 2 × 10 8 HUCB mononucleated cells relative to irradiated but untreated animals was highly significant (P < 0.01). Compared with earlier studies, the increased dose of HUCB mononucleated cells, coupled with early use of an antibiotic, extended the window of time for effective treatment of severe radiation injury from 4 to 24-52 h after exposure. (author)

  19. Survival of Lactobacillus plantarumU40 on the in vitro rumen fermentation quantified with real-time PCR

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    W.D. Astuti

    2018-05-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this study was to evaluate the survival of L. plantarumU40 quantified with real-time PCR during in vitro rumen fermentation. The experiment was arranged in a randomized block design with 3 treatments and 4 replications. Treatments were control, rumen fermentation inoculated with L. plantarumU40and L. plantarumU40 + glucose solution. Population of L. plantarum U40 was higher at inoculation treatment. After 8 hours incubation, glucose addition tended to decrease L. plantarum U40 population. Control treatment showed lowest population of L. plantarum U40 along in vitro fermentation compared with other treatment. Inoculation of L. plantarumU40 significantly (p<0.05 increased population of LAB until 12 hours incubation compared with control. Control treatment had highest pH at all incubation time. Glucose addition significantly (P<0.05 decreased final rumen pH (24 hours (6.30, compared with control treatment (6.85. Inoculation of L. plantarum U40 with glucose addition significantly (P<0.05increased propionic acid, decreased acetic acid and A/P ratio compared with other treatments. Lactobacillus plantarum U40 without glucose addition did not affect propionic acid production significantly. As conclusion, Lactobacillus plantarum U40 can survive in rumen fluid and changes rumen fermentation when glucose is added as carbon source.

  20. Slow Freezing or Vitrification of Oocytes: Their Effects on Survival and Meiotic Spindles, and the Time Schedule for Clinical Practice

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shee-Uan Chen

    2009-03-01

    Full Text Available Both the slow-freezing method with increased sucrose concentration and new vitrification techniques significantly improve the results of cryopreservation of human oocytes. The recent perfection for vitrification includes the concepts of increase of cooling and warming rates using minimum volume methods, and decrease of toxicity by reducing the concentration of cryoprotectants. In the recent literature, the survival of cryopreserved oocytes ranged from 74% to 90% using the slow-freezing method and from 84% to 99% by vitrification. Overall, the survival rate of oocytes from vitrification (95%, 899/948 appeared higher than that of the slow-freezing method (75%, 1,275/1,683. The microtubules of meiotic spindles are vulnerable to the thermal changes and will depolymerize. After incubation, the microtubules repolymerize. Spindle recovery is faster after vitrification than slow freezing. Even so, after 3 hours of incubation, spindle recuperation is similar between vitrification and slow freezing. Considering both aspects of spindle recovery and oocyte aging, the time schedule for oocyte cryopreservation program makes fertilization in the optimal time. Intracytoplasmic sperm injection is performed for oocytes at 3 hours of post-thaw incubation from the slow-freezing method and 2 hours from vitrification, with restoration of meiotic spindles. The pregnancy potential of cryopreserved oocytes is comparable to that of fresh oocytes or frozen embryos. Cryopreservation of oocytes would importantly contribute to oocyte donation and preservation of fertility for cancer patients.

  1. A special case of reduced rank models for identification and modelling of time varying effects in survival analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Perperoglou, Aris

    2016-12-10

    Flexible survival models are in need when modelling data from long term follow-up studies. In many cases, the assumption of proportionality imposed by a Cox model will not be valid. Instead, a model that can identify time varying effects of fixed covariates can be used. Although there are several approaches that deal with this problem, it is not always straightforward how to choose which covariates should be modelled having time varying effects and which not. At the same time, it is up to the researcher to define appropriate time functions that describe the dynamic pattern of the effects. In this work, we suggest a model that can deal with both fixed and time varying effects and uses simple hypotheses tests to distinguish which covariates do have dynamic effects. The model is an extension of the parsimonious reduced rank model of rank 1. As such, the number of parameters is kept low, and thus, a flexible set of time functions, such as b-splines, can be used. The basic theory is illustrated along with an efficient fitting algorithm. The proposed method is applied to a dataset of breast cancer patients and compared with a multivariate fractional polynomials approach for modelling time-varying effects. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. Copyright © 2016 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  2. Measures of spike train synchrony for data with multiple time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Satuvuori, Eero; Mulansky, Mario; Bozanic, Nebojsa; Malvestio, Irene; Zeldenrust, Fleur; Lenk, Kerstin; Kreuz, Thomas

    2017-01-01

    Background Measures of spike train synchrony are widely used in both experimental and computational neuroscience. Time-scale independent and parameter-free measures, such as the ISI-distance, the SPIKE-distance and SPIKE-synchronization, are preferable to time scale parametric measures, since by

  3. The M1 form of tumor-associated macrophages in non-small cell lung cancer is positively associated with survival time

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ma, Junliang; Liu, Lunxu; Che, Guowei; Yu, Nanbin; Dai, Fuqiang; You, Zongbing

    2010-01-01

    Tumor-associated macrophages (TAMs) play an important role in growth, progression and metastasis of tumors. In non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC), TAMs' anti-tumor or pro-tumor role is not determined. Macrophages are polarized into M1 (with anti-tumor function) and M2 (with pro-tumor function) forms. This study was conducted to determine whether the M1 and M2 macrophage densities in NSCLC are associated with patient's survival time. Fifty patients with an average of 1-year survival (short survival group) and 50 patients with an average of 5-year survival (long survival group) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical double-staining of CD68/HLA-DR (markers for M1 macrophages) and CD68/CD163 (markers for M2 macrophages) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The M1 and M2 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were determined using computer-aided microscopy. Correlation of the macrophage densities and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences. Approximately 70% of TAMs were M2 macrophages and the remaining 30% were M1 macrophages in NSCLC. The M2 macrophage densities (approximately 78 to 113 per mm 2 ) in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma were not significantly different between the long survival and short survival groups. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 70/mm 2 ) and stroma (approximately 34/mm 2 ) of the long survival group were significantly higher than the M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets (approximately 7/mm 2 ) and stroma (13/mm 2 ) of the short survival group (P < 0.001 and P < 0.05, respectively). The M2 macrophage densities were not associated with patient's survival time. The M1 macrophage densities in the tumor islets, stroma, or islets and stroma

  4. The Impact of Timing and Graft Dysfunction on Survival and Cardiac Allograft Vasculopathy in Antibody Mediated Rejection

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerkin, Kevin J.; Restaino, Susan W.; Zorn, Emmanuel; Vasilescu, Elena R.; Marboe, Charles C.; Mancini, Donna M.

    2017-01-01

    Background Antibody mediated rejection (AMR) has been associated with increased mortality and cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV). Early studies suggested that late AMR was rarely associated with graft dysfunction while recent reports have demonstrated an association with increased mortality. We sought to investigate the timing of AMR and its association with graft dysfunction, mortality, and CAV. Methods This retrospective cohort study identified all adult heart transplant recipients at Columbia University Medical Center from 2004–2013 (689 patients). There were 68 primary cases of AMR, which were stratified by early (1-year post-OHT) AMR. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and modeling was performed with multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression. Results From January 1, 2004 through October 1, 2015 43 patients had early AMR (median 23 days post-OHT) and 25 had late AMR (median 1084 days post-OHT). Graft dysfunction was less common with early compared with late AMR (25.6% vs. 56%, p=0.01). Patients with late AMR had decreased post-AMR survival compared with early AMR (1-year 80% vs. 93%, 5-year 51% vs. 73%, p<0.05). When stratified by graft dysfunction, only those with late AMR and graft dysfunction had worse survival (30-day 79%, 1-year 64%, and 5-year 36%, p<0.006). The association remained irrespective of age, sex, DSA, LVAD use, reason for OHT, and recovery of graft function. Similarly, those with late AMR and graft dysfunction had accelerated development of de-novo CAV (50% at 1 year, HR 5.42, p=0.009), while all other groups were all similar to the general transplant population. Conclusion Late AMR is frequently associated with graft dysfunction. When graft dysfunction is present in late AMR there is an early and sustained increased risk of mortality and rapid development of de-novo CAV despite aggressive treatment. PMID:27423693

  5. Swedish National Registry of Urinary Bladder Cancer: No difference in relative survival over time despite more aggressive treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jahnson, Staffan; Hosseini Aliabad, Abolfazl; Holmäng, Sten; Jancke, Georg; Liedberg, Fredrik; Ljungberg, Börje; Malmström, Per-Uno; Rosell, Johan

    2016-01-01

    The aim of this study was to use the Swedish National Registry of Urinary Bladder Cancer (SNRUBC) to investigate changes in patient and tumour characteristics, management and survival in bladder cancer cases over a period of 15 years. All patients with newly detected bladder cancer reported to the SNRUBC during 1997-2011 were included in the study. The cohort was divided into three groups, each representing 5 years of the 15 year study period. The study included 31,266 patients (74% men, 26% women) with a mean age of 72 years. Mean age was 71.7 years in the first subperiod (1997-2001) and 72.5 years in the last subperiod (2007-2011). Clinical T categorization changed from the first to the last subperiod: Ta from 45% to 48%, T1 from 21.6% to 22.4%, and T2-T4 from 27% to 25%. Also from the first to the last subperiod, intravesical treatment after transurethral resection for T1G2 and T1G3 tumours increased from 15% to 40% and from 30% to 50%, respectively, and cystectomy for T2-T4 tumours increased from 30% to 40%. No differences between the analysed subperiods were found regarding relative survival in patients with T1 or T2-T4 tumours, or in the whole cohort. This investigation based on a national bladder cancer registry showed that the age of the patients at diagnosis increased, and the proportion of muscle-invasive tumours decreased. The treatment of all tumour stages became more aggressive but relative survival showed no statistically significant change over time.

  6. Evidence for a time-dependent association between FOLR1 expression and survival from ovarian carcinoma

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Köbel, M; Madore, J; Ramus, S J

    2014-01-01

    BACKGROUND: Folate receptor 1 (FOLR1) is expressed in the majority of ovarian carcinomas (OvCa), making it an attractive target for therapy. However, clinical trials testing anti-FOLR1 therapies in OvCa show mixed results and require better understanding of the prognostic relevance of FOLR1...... stage I/II tumours, patients with FOLR1-positive HGSC showed increased OS during the first 2 years only (hazard ratio=0.44, 95% confidence interval=0.20-0.96) and patients with FOLR1-positive clear cell carcinomas (CCC) showed decreased PFS independent of follow-up time (HR=1.89, 95% CI=1.10-3.25, N=259...

  7. A flexible and coherent test/estimation procedure based on restricted mean survival times for censored time-to-event data in randomized clinical trials.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Horiguchi, Miki; Cronin, Angel M; Takeuchi, Masahiro; Uno, Hajime

    2018-04-22

    In randomized clinical trials where time-to-event is the primary outcome, almost routinely, the logrank test is prespecified as the primary test and the hazard ratio is used to quantify treatment effect. If the ratio of 2 hazard functions is not constant, the logrank test is not optimal and the interpretation of hazard ratio is not obvious. When such a nonproportional hazards case is expected at the design stage, the conventional practice is to prespecify another member of weighted logrank tests, eg, Peto-Prentice-Wilcoxon test. Alternatively, one may specify a robust test as the primary test, which can capture various patterns of difference between 2 event time distributions. However, most of those tests do not have companion procedures to quantify the treatment difference, and investigators have fallen back on reporting treatment effect estimates not associated with the primary test. Such incoherence in the "test/estimation" procedure may potentially mislead clinicians/patients who have to balance risk-benefit for treatment decision. To address this, we propose a flexible and coherent test/estimation procedure based on restricted mean survival time, where the truncation time τ is selected data dependently. The proposed procedure is composed of a prespecified test and an estimation of corresponding robust and interpretable quantitative treatment effect. The utility of the new procedure is demonstrated by numerical studies based on 2 randomized cancer clinical trials; the test is dramatically more powerful than the logrank, Wilcoxon tests, and the restricted mean survival time-based test with a fixed τ, for the patterns of difference seen in these cancer clinical trials. Copyright © 2018 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  8. Effect of Migration Pathway on Travel Time and Survival of Acoustic-Tagged Juvenile Salmonids in the Columbia River Estuary

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Harnish, Ryan A.; Johnson, Gary E.; McMichael, Geoffrey A.; Hughes, Michael S.; Ebberts, Blaine D.

    2012-02-01

    Off-channel areas (side channels, tidal flats, sand bars, and shallow-water bays) may serve as important migration corridors through estuarine environments for salmon and steelhead smolts. Relatively large percentages (21-33%) of acoustic-tagged yearling and subyearling Chinook salmon and steelhead smolts were detected migrating through off-channel areas of the Columbia River estuary in 2008. The probability of survival for off-channel migrants (0.78-0.94) was similar to or greater than the survival probability of main channel migrants (0.67-0.93). Median travel times were similar for all species or run types and migration pathways we examined, ranging from 1-2 d. The route used by smolts to migrate through the estuary may affect their vulnerability to predation. Acoustic-tagged steelhead that migrated nearest to avian predator nesting colonies experienced higher predation rates (24%) than those that migrated farthest from the colonies (10%). The use of multiple migration pathways may be advantageous to out-migrating smolts because it helps to buffer against high rates of mortality, which may occur in localized areas, and helps to minimize inter- and intraspecific competition.

  9. A Dynamical System Approach Explaining the Process of Development by Introducing Different Time-scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hashemi Kamangar, Somayeh Sadat; Moradimanesh, Zahra; Mokhtari, Setareh; Bakouie, Fatemeh

    2018-06-11

    A developmental process can be described as changes through time within a complex dynamic system. The self-organized changes and emergent behaviour during development can be described and modeled as a dynamical system. We propose a dynamical system approach to answer the main question in human cognitive development i.e. the changes during development happens continuously or in discontinuous stages. Within this approach there is a concept; the size of time scales, which can be used to address the aforementioned question. We introduce a framework, by considering the concept of time-scale, in which "fast" and "slow" is defined by the size of time-scales. According to our suggested model, the overall pattern of development can be seen as one continuous function, with different time-scales in different time intervals.

  10. ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN TIMES OF ECONOMIC AND FINANCIAL CRISES, METHODS OF ADAPTATION AND SURVIVAL.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Radu Oprea

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the main results of a research activity conducted in the South – East region of Romania during November 2009, over 117 small and medium-sized enterprises. The results help to better explain some of the social problems that have been generated in the region as a snow ball effect, due to the economic and financial crisis. The research has revealed the following:The majority of the employees of the companies that were interviewed do not participate in training courses related to project management and personal development. However, company administrators consider that such courses are useful to increase competitiveness in times of economic and financial crises. Personnel under 40 years of age suffer from a lack of professional training and dedication to job requirements. Companies have expressed an interest in accessing European Union funding. However, they do not have complete information that would allow them to start a project and finalize it. This lack of information is mainly due to lack of access to specialists who would write the projects and submit them. The majority of entrepreneurs consider they cannot write the projects themselves but on the other hand they do not have access to consulting companies or other organizations that could help them. Their main information source is the mass-media.As a result, companies have adjusted to the effects of the economic crisis, diminishing their activity and laying off people, decreasing the running expenses and stopping investing in their development.

  11. Thresholds and timing of pre-operative thrombocytosis and ovarian cancer survival: analysis of laboratory measures from electronic medical records

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cozzi, Gabriella D.; Samuel, Jacob M.; Fromal, Jason T.; Keene, Spencer; Crispens, Marta A.; Khabele, Dineo; Beeghly-Fadiel, Alicia

    2016-01-01

    Thrombocytosis has been associated with poor ovarian cancer prognosis. However, comparisons of thresholds to define thrombocytosis and evaluation of relevant timing of platelet measurement has not been previously conducted. We selected Tumor Registry confirmed ovarian, primary peritoneal, and fallopian tube cancer cases diagnosed between 1995–2013 from the Vanderbilt University Medical Center. Laboratory measured platelet values from electronic medical records (EMR) were used to determine thrombocytosis at three thresholds: a platelet count greater than 350, 400, or 450 × 10 9 /liter. Timing was evaluated with 5 intervals: on the date of diagnosis, and up to 1, 2, 4, and 8 weeks prior to the date of diagnosis. Cox regression was used to calculate hazard ratios (HR) and confidence intervals (CI) for association with overall survival; adjustment included age, stage, grade, and histologic subtype of disease. Pre-diagnosis platelet measures were available for 136, 241, 280, 297, and 304 cases in the five intervals. The prevalence of thrombocytosis decreased with increasing thresholds and was generally consistent across the five time intervals, ranging from 44.8–53.2 %, 31.6–39.4 %, and 19.9–26.1 % across the three thresholds. Associations with higher grade and stage of disease gained significance as the threshold increased. With the exception of the lowest threshold on the date of diagnosis (HR 350 : 1.55, 95 % CI: 0.97–2.47), all other survival associations were significant, with the highest reaching twice the risk of death for thrombocytosis on the date of diagnosis (HR 400 : 2.01, 95 % CI: 1.25–3.23). Our EMR approach yielded associations comparable to published findings from medical record abstraction approaches. In addition, our results indicate that lower thrombocytosis thresholds and platelet measures up to 8 weeks before diagnosis may inform ovarian cancer characteristics and prognosis

  12. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work? A prospective cohort study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andreas Holtermann

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work. METHODS: In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective cohort of 7,411 males and 8,916 females aged 25-66 years without known cardiovascular disease at entry in 1976-78, 1981-83, 1991-94, or 2001-03, the authors analyzed with sex-stratified multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression the association between leisure time physical activity and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among individuals with different levels of occupational physical activity. RESULTS: During a median follow-up of 22.4 years, 4,003 individuals died from cardiovascular disease and 8,935 from all-causes. Irrespective of level of occupational physical activity, a consistently lower risk with increasing leisure time physical activity was found for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among both men and women. Compared to low leisure time physical activity, the survival benefit ranged from 1.5-3.6 years for moderate and 2.6-4.7 years for high leisure time physical activity among the different levels of occupational physical activity. CONCLUSION: Public campaigns and initiatives for increasing physical activity in the working population should target everybody, irrespective of physical activity at work.

  13. Does the benefit on survival from leisure time physical activity depend on physical activity at work? A prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Holtermann, Andreas; Marott, Jacob Louis; Gyntelberg, Finn; Søgaard, Karen; Suadicani, Poul; Mortensen, Ole Steen; Prescott, Eva; Schnohr, Peter

    2013-01-01

    To investigate if persons with high physical activity at work have the same benefits from leisure time physical activity as persons with sedentary work. In the Copenhagen City Heart Study, a prospective cohort of 7,411 males and 8,916 females aged 25-66 years without known cardiovascular disease at entry in 1976-78, 1981-83, 1991-94, or 2001-03, the authors analyzed with sex-stratified multivariate Cox proportional hazards regression the association between leisure time physical activity and cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among individuals with different levels of occupational physical activity. During a median follow-up of 22.4 years, 4,003 individuals died from cardiovascular disease and 8,935 from all-causes. Irrespective of level of occupational physical activity, a consistently lower risk with increasing leisure time physical activity was found for both cardiovascular and all-cause mortality among both men and women. Compared to low leisure time physical activity, the survival benefit ranged from 1.5-3.6 years for moderate and 2.6-4.7 years for high leisure time physical activity among the different levels of occupational physical activity. Public campaigns and initiatives for increasing physical activity in the working population should target everybody, irrespective of physical activity at work.

  14. Bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome after single-lung transplantation: impact of time to onset on functional pattern and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brugière, Olivier; Pessione, Fabienne; Thabut, Gabriel; Mal, Hervé; Jebrak, Gilles; Lesèche, Guy; Fournier, Michel

    2002-06-01

    Among risk factors for the progression of bronchiolitis obliterans syndrome (BOS) after lung transplantation (LT), the influence of time to BOS onset is not known. The aim of the study was to assess if BOS occurring earlier after LT is associated with worse functional prognosis and worse graft survival. We retrospectively compared functional outcome and survival of all single-LT (SLT) recipients who had BOS develop during follow-up in our center according to time to onset of BOS ( or = 3 years after transplantation). Among the 29 SLT recipients with BOS identified during the study period, 20 patients had early-onset BOS and 9 patients had late-onset BOS. The mean decline of FEV(1) over time during the first 9 months in patients with early-onset BOS was significantly greater than in patients with of late-onset BOS (p = 0.04). At last follow-up, patients with early-onset BOS had a lower mean FEV(1) value (25% vs 39% of predicted, p = 0.004), a lower mean PaO(2) value (54 mm Hg vs 73 mm Hg, p = 0.0005), a lower 6-min walk test distance (241 m vs 414 m, p = 0.001), a higher Medical Research Council index value (3.6 vs 1.6, p = 0.0001), and a higher percentage of oxygen dependency (90% vs 11%, p = 0.001) compared with patients with late-onset BOS. In addition, graft survival of patients with early-onset BOS was significantly lower than that of patients with late-onset BOS (log-rank test, p = 0.04). There were 18 of 20 graft failures (90%) in the early-onset BOS group, directly attributable to BOS in all cases (deaths [n = 10] or retransplantation [n = 8]). In the late-onset BOS group, graft failure occurred in four of nine patients due to death from extrapulmonary causes in three of four cases. The median duration of follow-up after occurrence of BOS was not statistically different between patients with early-onset BOS and patients with late-onset BOS (31 +/- 28 months and 37 +/- 26 months, respectively; p = not significant). The subgroup of patients who had BOS develop

  15. Vitamin D Depletion in Pregnancy Decreases Survival Time, Oxygen Saturation, Lung Weight and Body Weight in Preterm Rat Offspring

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lykkedegn, Sine; Sorensen, Grith Lykke; Beck-Nielsen, Signe Sparre

    2016-01-01

    Animal studies suggest a role of vitamin D in fetal lung development although not studied in preterm animals. We tested the hypothesis that vitamin D depletion aggravates respiratory insufficiency in preterm rat offspring. Furthermore, the effects of vitamin D depletion on growth and lung...... surfactant were investigated. Female Sprague-Dawley rats were randomly assigned low vitamin D (VDL) or control diet before mating and followed with serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (s-25(OH)D) determinations. After cesarean section at gestational day 19 (E19) or day 22 (E22), placental weight, birth weight, crown......-rump-length (CRL), oxygenation (SaO2) at 30 min and survival time were recorded. The pup lungs were analyzed for phospholipid levels, surfactant protein A-D mRNA and the expression of the vitamin D receptor (VDR). S-25(OH)D was significantly lower in the VDL group at cesarean section (12 vs. 30nmol/L, p

  16. Super-transient scaling in time-delay autonomous Boolean network motifs

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    D' Huys, Otti, E-mail: otti.dhuys@phy.duke.edu; Haynes, Nicholas D. [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Lohmann, Johannes [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Institut für Theoretische Physik, Technische Universität Berlin, Hardenbergstraße 36, 10623 Berlin (Germany); Gauthier, Daniel J. [Department of Physics, Duke University, Durham, North Carolina 27708 (United States); Department of Physics, The Ohio State University, Columbus, Ohio 43210 (United States)

    2016-09-15

    Autonomous Boolean networks are commonly used to model the dynamics of gene regulatory networks and allow for the prediction of stable dynamical attractors. However, most models do not account for time delays along the network links and noise, which are crucial features of real biological systems. Concentrating on two paradigmatic motifs, the toggle switch and the repressilator, we develop an experimental testbed that explicitly includes both inter-node time delays and noise using digital logic elements on field-programmable gate arrays. We observe transients that last millions to billions of characteristic time scales and scale exponentially with the amount of time delays between nodes, a phenomenon known as super-transient scaling. We develop a hybrid model that includes time delays along network links and allows for stochastic variation in the delays. Using this model, we explain the observed super-transient scaling of both motifs and recreate the experimentally measured transient distributions.

  17. The multiple time scales of sleep dynamics as a challenge for modelling the sleeping brain.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Olbrich, Eckehard; Claussen, Jens Christian; Achermann, Peter

    2011-10-13

    A particular property of the sleeping brain is that it exhibits dynamics on very different time scales ranging from the typical sleep oscillations such as sleep spindles and slow waves that can be observed in electroencephalogram (EEG) segments of several seconds duration over the transitions between the different sleep stages on a time scale of minutes to the dynamical processes involved in sleep regulation with typical time constants in the range of hours. There is an increasing body of work on mathematical and computational models addressing these different dynamics, however, usually considering only processes on a single time scale. In this paper, we review and present a new analysis of the dynamics of human sleep EEG at the different time scales and relate the findings to recent modelling efforts pointing out both the achievements and remaining challenges.

  18. Off-Policy Reinforcement Learning: Optimal Operational Control for Two-Time-Scale Industrial Processes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Jinna; Kiumarsi, Bahare; Chai, Tianyou; Lewis, Frank L; Fan, Jialu

    2017-12-01

    Industrial flow lines are composed of unit processes operating on a fast time scale and performance measurements known as operational indices measured at a slower time scale. This paper presents a model-free optimal solution to a class of two time-scale industrial processes using off-policy reinforcement learning (RL). First, the lower-layer unit process control loop with a fast sampling period and the upper-layer operational index dynamics at a slow time scale are modeled. Second, a general optimal operational control problem is formulated to optimally prescribe the set-points for the unit industrial process. Then, a zero-sum game off-policy RL algorithm is developed to find the optimal set-points by using data measured in real-time. Finally, a simulation experiment is employed for an industrial flotation process to show the effectiveness of the proposed method.

  19. A Large-Scale RNAi Screen Identifies SGK1 as a Key Survival Kinase for GBM Stem Cells.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kulkarni, Shreya; Goel-Bhattacharya, Surbhi; Sengupta, Sejuti; Cochran, Brent H

    2018-01-01

    Glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) is the most common type of primary malignant brain cancer and has a very poor prognosis. A subpopulation of cells known as GBM stem-like cells (GBM-SC) have the capacity to initiate and sustain tumor growth and possess molecular characteristics similar to the parental tumor. GBM-SCs are known to be enriched in hypoxic niches and may contribute to therapeutic resistance. Therefore, to identify genetic determinants important for the proliferation and survival of GBM stem cells, an unbiased pooled shRNA screen of 10,000 genes was conducted under normoxic as well as hypoxic conditions. A number of essential genes were identified that are required for GBM-SC growth, under either or both oxygen conditions, in two different GBM-SC lines. Interestingly, only about a third of the essential genes were common to both cell lines. The oxygen environment significantly impacts the cellular genetic dependencies as 30% of the genes required under hypoxia were not required under normoxic conditions. In addition to identifying essential genes already implicated in GBM such as CDK4, KIF11 , and RAN , the screen also identified new genes that have not been previously implicated in GBM stem cell biology. The importance of the serum and glucocorticoid-regulated kinase 1 (SGK1) for cellular survival was validated in multiple patient-derived GBM stem cell lines using shRNA, CRISPR, and pharmacologic inhibitors. However, SGK1 depletion and inhibition has little effect on traditional serum grown glioma lines and on differentiated GBM-SCs indicating its specific importance in GBM stem cell survival. Implications: This study identifies genes required for the growth and survival of GBM stem cells under both normoxic and hypoxic conditions and finds SGK1 as a novel potential drug target for GBM. Mol Cancer Res; 16(1); 103-14. ©2017 AACR . ©2017 American Association for Cancer Research.

  20. Abundance of early functional HIV-specific CD8+ T cells does not predict AIDS-free survival time.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ingrid M M Schellens

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: T-cell immunity is thought to play an important role in controlling HIV infection, and is a main target for HIV vaccine development. HIV-specific central memory CD8(+ and CD4(+ T cells producing IFNgamma and IL-2 have been associated with control of viremia and are therefore hypothesized to be truly protective and determine subsequent clinical outcome. However, the cause-effect relationship between HIV-specific cellular immunity and disease progression is unknown. We investigated in a large prospective cohort study involving 96 individuals of the Amsterdam Cohort Studies with a known date of seroconversion whether the presence of cytokine-producing HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells early in infection was associated with AIDS-free survival time. METHODS AND FINDINGS: The number and percentage of IFNgamma and IL-2 producing CD8(+ T cells was measured after in vitro stimulation with an overlapping Gag-peptide pool in T cells sampled approximately one year after seroconversion. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and Cox proportional hazard models showed that frequencies of cytokine-producing Gag-specific CD8(+ T cells (IFNgamma, IL-2 or both shortly after seroconversion were neither associated with time to AIDS nor with the rate of CD4(+ T-cell decline. CONCLUSIONS: These data show that high numbers of functional HIV-specific CD8(+ T cells can be found early in HIV infection, irrespective of subsequent clinical outcome. The fact that both progressors and long-term non-progressors have abundant T cell immunity of the specificity associated with low viral load shortly after seroconversion suggests that the more rapid loss of T cell immunity observed in progressors may be a consequence rather than a cause of disease progression.

  1. REAL-TIME VIDEO SCALING BASED ON CONVOLUTION NEURAL NETWORK ARCHITECTURE

    OpenAIRE

    S Safinaz; A V Ravi Kumar

    2017-01-01

    In recent years, video super resolution techniques becomes mandatory requirements to get high resolution videos. Many super resolution techniques researched but still video super resolution or scaling is a vital challenge. In this paper, we have presented a real-time video scaling based on convolution neural network architecture to eliminate the blurriness in the images and video frames and to provide better reconstruction quality while scaling of large datasets from lower resolution frames t...

  2. Polygenic Score × Intervention Moderation: an Application of Discrete-Time Survival Analysis to Model the Timing of First Marijuana Use Among Urban Youth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Musci, Rashelle J; Fairman, Brian; Masyn, Katherine E; Uhl, George; Maher, Brion; Sisto, Danielle Y; Kellam, Sheppard G; Ialongo, Nicholas S

    2018-01-01

    The present study examines the interaction between a polygenic score and an elementary school-based universal preventive intervention trial and its effects on a discrete-time survival analysis of time to first smoking marijuana. Research has suggested that initiation of substances is both genetically and environmentally driven (Rhee et al., Archives of general psychiatry 60:1256-1264, 2003; Verweij et al., Addiction 105:417-430, 2010). A previous work has found a significant interaction between the polygenic score and the same elementary school-based intervention with tobacco smoking (Musci et al., in press). The polygenic score reflects the contribution of multiple genes and has been shown in prior research to be predictive of smoking cessation, tobacco use, and marijuana use (Uhl et al., Molecular Psychiatry 19:50-54, 2014). Using data from a longitudinal preventive intervention study (N = 678), we examined age of first marijuana use from sixth grade to age 18. Genetic data were collected during emerging adulthood and were genotyped using the Affymetrix 6.0 microarray (N = 545). The polygenic score was computed using these data. Discrete-time survival analysis was employed to test for intervention main and interaction effects with the polygenic score. We found main effect of the polygenic score approaching significance, with the participants with higher polygenic scores reporting their first smoking marijuana at an age significantly later than controls (p = .050). We also found a significant intervention × polygenic score interaction effect at p = .003, with participants at the higher end of the polygenic score benefiting the most from the intervention in terms of delayed age of first use. These results suggest that genetics may play an important role in the age of first use of marijuana and that differences in genetics may account for the differential effectiveness of classroom-based interventions in delaying substance use experimentation.

  3. Time scale defined by the fractal structure of the price fluctuations in foreign exchange markets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumagai, Yoshiaki

    2010-04-01

    In this contribution, a new time scale named C-fluctuation time is defined by price fluctuations observed at a given resolution. The intraday fractal structures and the relations of the three time scales: real time (physical time), tick time and C-fluctuation time, in foreign exchange markets are analyzed. The data set used is trading prices of foreign exchange rates; US dollar (USD)/Japanese yen (JPY), USD/Euro (EUR), and EUR/JPY. The accuracy of the data is one minute and data within a minute are recorded in order of transaction. The series of instantaneous velocity of C-fluctuation time flowing are exponentially distributed for small C when they are measured by real time and for tiny C when they are measured by tick time. When the market is volatile, for larger C, the series of instantaneous velocity are exponentially distributed.

  4. Bridging time scales in cellular decision making with a stochastic bistable switch

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Waldherr Steffen

    2010-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Cellular transformations which involve a significant phenotypical change of the cell's state use bistable biochemical switches as underlying decision systems. Some of these transformations act over a very long time scale on the cell population level, up to the entire lifespan of the organism. Results In this work, we aim at linking cellular decisions taking place on a time scale of years to decades with the biochemical dynamics in signal transduction and gene regulation, occuring on a time scale of minutes to hours. We show that a stochastic bistable switch forms a viable biochemical mechanism to implement decision processes on long time scales. As a case study, the mechanism is applied to model the initiation of follicle growth in mammalian ovaries, where the physiological time scale of follicle pool depletion is on the order of the organism's lifespan. We construct a simple mathematical model for this process based on experimental evidence for the involved genetic mechanisms. Conclusions Despite the underlying stochasticity, the proposed mechanism turns out to yield reliable behavior in large populations of cells subject to the considered decision process. Our model explains how the physiological time constant may emerge from the intrinsic stochasticity of the underlying gene regulatory network. Apart from ovarian follicles, the proposed mechanism may also be of relevance for other physiological systems where cells take binary decisions over a long time scale.

  5. Data warehousing technologies for large-scale and right-time data

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Xiufeng, Liu

    heterogeneous sources into a central data warehouse (DW) by Extract-Transform-Load (ETL) at regular time intervals, e.g., monthly, weekly, or daily. But now, it becomes challenging for large-scale data, and hard to meet the near real-time/right-time business decisions. This thesis considers some...

  6. Broadband Structural Dynamics: Understanding the Impulse-Response of Structures Across Multiple Length and Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    2010-08-18

    Spectral domain response calculated • Time domain response obtained through inverse transform Approach 4: WASABI Wavelet Analysis of Structural Anomalies...differences at unity scale! Time Function Transform Apply Spectral Domain Transfer Function Time Function Inverse Transform Transform Transform  mtP

  7. Characteristic time scales for diffusion processes through layers and across interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carr, Elliot J.

    2018-04-01

    This paper presents a simple tool for characterizing the time scale for continuum diffusion processes through layered heterogeneous media. This mathematical problem is motivated by several practical applications such as heat transport in composite materials, flow in layered aquifers, and drug diffusion through the layers of the skin. In such processes, the physical properties of the medium vary across layers and internal boundary conditions apply at the interfaces between adjacent layers. To characterize the time scale, we use the concept of mean action time, which provides the mean time scale at each position in the medium by utilizing the fact that the transition of the transient solution of the underlying partial differential equation model, from initial state to steady state, can be represented as a cumulative distribution function of time. Using this concept, we define the characteristic time scale for a multilayer diffusion process as the maximum value of the mean action time across the layered medium. For given initial conditions and internal and external boundary conditions, this approach leads to simple algebraic expressions for characterizing the time scale that depend on the physical and geometrical properties of the medium, such as the diffusivities and lengths of the layers. Numerical examples demonstrate that these expressions provide useful insight into explaining how the parameters in the model affect the time it takes for a multilayer diffusion process to reach steady state.

  8. Time-scale invariances in preseismic electromagnetic radiation, magnetization and damage evolution of rocks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Kawada

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available We investigate the time-scale invariant changes in electromagnetic and mechanical energy releases prior to a rock failure or a large earthquake. The energy release processes are caused by damage evolutions such as crack propagation, motion of charged dislocation, area-enlargement of sheared asperities and repetitive creep-rate changes. Damage mechanics can be used to represent the time-scale invariant evolutions of both brittle and plastic damages. Irreversible thermodynamics applied to the damage mechanics reveals that the damage evolution produces the variations in charge, dipole and electromagnetic signals in addition to mechanical energy release, and yields the time-scale invariant patterns of Benioff electromagnetic radiation and cumulative Benioff strain-release. The irreversible thermodynamic framework of damage mechanics is also applicable to the seismo-magnetic effect, and the time-scale invariance is recognized in the remanent magnetization change associated with damage evolution prior to a rock failure.

  9. Multiple time scale analysis of pressure oscillations in solid rocket motors

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Waqas; Maqsood, Adnan; Riaz, Rizwan

    2018-03-01

    In this study, acoustic pressure oscillations for single and coupled longitudinal acoustic modes in Solid Rocket Motor (SRM) are investigated using Multiple Time Scales (MTS) method. Two independent time scales are introduced. The oscillations occur on fast time scale whereas the amplitude and phase changes on slow time scale. Hopf bifurcation is employed to investigate the properties of the solution. The supercritical bifurcation phenomenon is observed for linearly unstable system. The amplitude of the oscillations result from equal energy gain and loss rates of longitudinal acoustic modes. The effect of linear instability and frequency of longitudinal modes on amplitude and phase of oscillations are determined for both single and coupled modes. For both cases, the maximum amplitude of oscillations decreases with the frequency of acoustic mode and linear instability of SRM. The comparison of analytical MTS results and numerical simulations demonstrate an excellent agreement.

  10. OSCILLATION CRITERIA FOR A FOURTH ORDER SUBLINEAR DYNAMIC EQUATION ON TIME SCALE

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    2011-01-01

    Some new criteria for the oscillation of a fourth order sublinear and/or linear dynamic equation on time scale are established. Our results are new for the corresponding fourth order differential equations as well as difference equations.

  11. Multiple Positive Symmetric Solutions to p-Laplacian Dynamic Equations on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Hui Su

    2009-01-01

    two examples are given to illustrate the main results and their differences. These results are even new for the special cases of continuous and discrete equations, as well as in the general time-scale setting.

  12. Multiple time scales in modeling the incidence of infections acquired in intensive care units

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martin Wolkewitz

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background When patients are admitted to an intensive care unit (ICU their risk of getting an infection will be highly depend on the length of stay at-risk in the ICU. In addition, risk of infection is likely to vary over calendar time as a result of fluctuations in the prevalence of the pathogen on the ward. Hence risk of infection is expected to depend on two time scales (time in ICU and calendar time as well as competing events (discharge or death and their spatial location. The purpose of this paper is to develop and apply appropriate statistical models for the risk of ICU-acquired infection accounting for multiple time scales, competing risks and the spatial clustering of the data. Methods A multi-center data base from a Spanish surveillance network was used to study the occurrence of an infection due to Methicillin-resistant Staphylococcus aureus (MRSA. The analysis included 84,843 patient admissions between January 2006 and December 2011 from 81 ICUs. Stratified Cox models were used to study multiple time scales while accounting for spatial clustering of the data (patients within ICUs and for death or discharge as competing events for MRSA infection. Results Both time scales, time in ICU and calendar time, are highly associated with the MRSA hazard rate and cumulative risk. When using only one basic time scale, the interpretation and magnitude of several patient-individual risk factors differed. Risk factors concerning the severity of illness were more pronounced when using only calendar time. These differences disappeared when using both time scales simultaneously. Conclusions The time-dependent dynamics of infections is complex and should be studied with models allowing for multiple time scales. For patient individual risk-factors we recommend stratified Cox regression models for competing events with ICU time as the basic time scale and calendar time as a covariate. The inclusion of calendar time and stratification by ICU

  13. The effect of timing and graft dysfunction on survival and cardiac allograft vasculopathy in antibody-mediated rejection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clerkin, Kevin J; Restaino, Susan W; Zorn, Emmanuel; Vasilescu, Elena R; Marboe, Charles C; Mancini, Donna M

    2016-09-01

    Antibody-mediated rejection (AMR) has been associated with increased death and cardiac allograft vasculopathy (CAV). Early studies suggested that late AMR was rarely associated with graft dysfunction, whereas recent reports have demonstrated an association with increased mortality. We investigated the timing of AMR and its association with graft dysfunction, death, and CAV. This retrospective cohort study identified all adult orthotopic heart transplant (OHT) recipients (N = 689) at Columbia University Medical Center from 2004 to 2013. There were 68 primary cases of AMR, which were stratified by early ( 1 year post-OHT) AMR. Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and modeling was performed with multivariable logistic regression and Cox proportional hazards regression. From January 1, 2004, through October 1, 2015, early AMR (median 23 days post-OHT) occurred in 43 patients and late AMR (median 1,084 days post-OHT) occurred in 25. Graft dysfunction was less common with early compared with late AMR (25.6% vs 56%, p = 0.01). Patients with late AMR had decreased post-AMR survival compared with early AMR (1 year: 80% vs 93%, 5 years: 51% vs 73%, p < 0.05). When stratified by graft dysfunction, only those with late AMR and graft dysfunction had worse survival (30 days: 79%, 1 year: 64%, 5 years: 36%; p < 0.006). The association remained irrespective of age, sex, donor-specific antibodies, left ventricular assist device use, reason for OHT, and recovery of graft function. Similarly, those with late AMR and graft dysfunction had accelerated development of de novo CAV (50% at 1 year; hazard ratio, 5.42; p = 0.009), whereas all other groups were all similar to the general transplant population. Late AMR is frequently associated with graft dysfunction. When graft dysfunction is present in late AMR, there is an early and sustained increased risk of death and rapid development of de novo CAV despite aggressive treatment. Copyright © 2016 International Society for Heart and Lung

  14. Studying DDT Susceptibility at Discriminating Time Intervals Focusing on Maximum Limit of Exposure Time Survived by DDT Resistant Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae): an Investigative Report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rama, Aarti; Kesari, Shreekant; Das, Pradeep; Kumar, Vijay

    2017-07-24

    Extensive application of routine insecticide i.e., dichlorodiphenyltrichloroethane (DDT) to control Phlebotomus argentipes (Diptera: Psychodidae), the proven vector of visceral leishmaniasis in India, had evoked the problem of resistance/tolerance against DDT, eventually nullifying the DDT dependent strategies to control this vector. Because tolerating an hour-long exposure to DDT is not challenging enough for the resistant P. argentipes, estimating susceptibility by exposing sand flies to insecticide for just an hour becomes a trivial and futile task.Therefore, this bioassay study was carried out to investigate the maximum limit of exposure time to which DDT resistant P. argentipes can endure the effect of DDT for their survival. The mortality rate of laboratory-reared DDT resistant strain P. argentipes exposed to DDT was studied at discriminating time intervals of 60 min and it was concluded that highly resistant sand flies could withstand up to 420 min of exposure to this insecticide. Additionally, the lethal time for female P. argentipes was observed to be higher than for males suggesting that they are highly resistant to DDT's toxicity. Our results support the monitoring of tolerance limit with respect to time and hence points towards an urgent need to change the World Health Organization's protocol for susceptibility identification in resistant P. argentipes.

  15. Time Scale Inequalities of the Ostrowski Type for Functions Differentiable on the Coordinates

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eze R. Nwaeze

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available In 2016, some inequalities of the Ostrowski type for functions (of two variables differentiable on the coordinates were established. In this paper, we extend these results to an arbitrary time scale by means of a parameter λ∈0,1. The aforementioned results are regained for the case when the time scale T=R. Besides extension, our results are employed to the continuous and discrete calculus to get some new inequalities in this direction.

  16. Bounds of Double Integral Dynamic Inequalities in Two Independent Variables on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. H. Saker

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available Our aim in this paper is to establish some explicit bounds of the unknown function in a certain class of nonlinear dynamic inequalities in two independent variables on time scales which are unbounded above. These on the one hand generalize and on the other hand furnish a handy tool for the study of qualitative as well as quantitative properties of solutions of partial dynamic equations on time scales. Some examples are considered to demonstrate the applications of the results.

  17. Full-scale tank car rollover tests - survivability of top fittings and top fittings protective structures : final report.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-05-01

    Full-scale rollover crash tests were performed on three non-pressure tank carbodies to validate previous analytical work and : determine the effectiveness of two different types of protective structures in protecting the top fittings. The tests were ...

  18. Is Leptospira able to survive in raw milk? Study on the inactivation at different storage times and temperatures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fratini, Filippo; Turchi, Barbara; Ferrone, Martina; Galiero, Alessia; Nuvoloni, Roberta; Torracca, Beatrice; Cerri, Domenico

    2016-09-01

    The consumption of raw milk is currently increasing due to several beneficial aspects, such as nutritional qualities, taste, and health benefits. However, some authors highlight the potential risk associated with raw milk consumption. In Italy, while the absence of some pathogen microorganisms is set by the regional regulation DGR 381/2007, for other microorganisms, such as Leptospira, no recommendations are provided. Leptospira is not ascribed among classical milk pathogens; however, it can potentially be present in raw milk. The aim of this study was to evaluate the survival in raw milk of six serovars of Leptospira after storage at different temperatures (4 °C ± 2 °C, 20 °C ± 2 °C, and 30 °C ± 2 °C) for different incubation times (20 min, 45 min, 1 h, and 1 h and 30 min), in order to determine the potential risk for consumers. Moreover, the immediate effect of bovine, goat, and donkey raw milk on tested Leptospira serovars was visually evaluated. After incubation, all samples were subcultured in EMJH and incubated aerobically at 30 °C for 3 months. All inoculated media were weekly examined by dark-field microscope in order to assess Leptospira survival. Extemporary observation of strains' behavior in milk allowed to detect an almost immediate motility loss, and no leptospires were detected by microscopic observations carried out weekly during the trial period. According to our results, it could be possible to exclude raw milk as a source of Leptospira infection for consumers.

  19. Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Ragosta

    2000-06-01

    Full Text Available Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram, a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal fluctuations are characterised by two time scale ranges in which self-potential variability appears to follow slightly different dynamical behaviours. Results point to the presence of fractal, non stationary features expressing a long term correlation with scaling coefficients which are the clue of stabilising mechanisms. In the scale ranges in which the series show scale invariant behaviour, self-potentials evolve like fractional Brownian motions with anticorrelated increments typical of processes regulated by negative feedback mechanisms (antipersistence. On scales below about 6 h the strength of such an antipersistence appears to be slightly greater than that observed on larger time scales where the fluctuations are less efficiently stabilised.

  20. Cycles, scaling and crossover phenomenon in length of the day (LOD) time series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Telesca, Luciano

    2007-06-01

    The dynamics of the temporal fluctuations of the length of the day (LOD) time series from January 1, 1962 to November 2, 2006 were investigated. The power spectrum of the whole time series has revealed annual, semi-annual, decadal and daily oscillatory behaviors, correlated with oceanic-atmospheric processes and interactions. The scaling behavior was analyzed by using the detrended fluctuation analysis (DFA), which has revealed two different scaling regimes, separated by a crossover timescale at approximately 23 days. Flicker-noise process can describe the dynamics of the LOD time regime involving intermediate and long timescales, while Brownian dynamics characterizes the LOD time series for small timescales.

  1. Impact of sequential disorder on the scaling behavior of airplane boarding time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Baek, Yongjoo; Ha, Meesoon; Jeong, Hawoong

    2013-05-01

    Airplane boarding process is an example where disorder properties of the system are relevant to the emergence of universality classes. Based on a simple model, we present a systematic analysis of finite-size effects in boarding time, and propose a comprehensive view of the role of sequential disorder in the scaling behavior of boarding time against the plane size. Using numerical simulations and mathematical arguments, we find how the scaling behavior depends on the number of seat columns and the range of sequential disorder. Our results show that new scaling exponents can arise as disorder is localized to varying extents.

  2. Understanding relationships among ecosystem services across spatial scales and over time

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jiangxiao; Carpenter, Stephen R.; Booth, Eric G.; Motew, Melissa; Zipper, Samuel C.; Kucharik, Christopher J.; Loheide, Steven P., II; Turner, Monica G.

    2018-05-01

    Sustaining ecosystem services (ES), mitigating their tradeoffs and avoiding unfavorable future trajectories are pressing social-environmental challenges that require enhanced understanding of their relationships across scales. Current knowledge of ES relationships is often constrained to one spatial scale or one snapshot in time. In this research, we integrated biophysical modeling with future scenarios to examine changes in relationships among eight ES indicators from 2001–2070 across three spatial scales—grid cell, subwatershed, and watershed. We focused on the Yahara Watershed (Wisconsin) in the Midwestern United States—an exemplar for many urbanizing agricultural landscapes. Relationships among ES indicators changed over time; some relationships exhibited high interannual variations (e.g. drainage vs. food production, nitrate leaching vs. net ecosystem exchange) and even reversed signs over time (e.g. perennial grass production vs. phosphorus yield). Robust patterns were detected for relationships among some regulating services (e.g. soil retention vs. water quality) across three spatial scales, but other relationships lacked simple scaling rules. This was especially true for relationships of food production vs. water quality, and drainage vs. number of days with runoff >10 mm, which differed substantially across spatial scales. Our results also showed that local tradeoffs between food production and water quality do not necessarily scale up, so reducing local tradeoffs may be insufficient to mitigate such tradeoffs at the watershed scale. We further synthesized these cross-scale patterns into a typology of factors that could drive changes in ES relationships across scales: (1) effects of biophysical connections, (2) effects of dominant drivers, (3) combined effects of biophysical linkages and dominant drivers, and (4) artificial scale effects, and concluded with management implications. Our study highlights the importance of taking a dynamic

  3. Putting scales into evolutionary time: the divergence of major scale insect lineages (Hemiptera) predates the radiation of modern angiosperm hosts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vea, Isabelle M.; Grimaldi, David A.

    2016-01-01

    The radiation of flowering plants in the mid-Cretaceous transformed landscapes and is widely believed to have fuelled the radiations of major groups of phytophagous insects. An excellent group to test this assertion is the scale insects (Coccomorpha: Hemiptera), with some 8,000 described Recent species and probably the most diverse fossil record of any phytophagous insect group preserved in amber. We used here a total-evidence approach (by tip-dating) employing 174 morphological characters of 73 Recent and 43 fossil taxa (48 families) and DNA sequences of three gene regions, to obtain divergence time estimates and compare the chronology of the most diverse lineage of scale insects, the neococcoid families, with the timing of the main angiosperm radiation. An estimated origin of the Coccomorpha occurred at the beginning of the Triassic, about 245 Ma [228–273], and of the neococcoids 60 million years later [210–165 Ma]. A total-evidence approach allows the integration of extinct scale insects into a phylogenetic framework, resulting in slightly younger median estimates than analyses using Recent taxa, calibrated with fossil ages only. From these estimates, we hypothesise that most major lineages of coccoids shifted from gymnosperms onto angiosperms when the latter became diverse and abundant in the mid- to Late Cretaceous. PMID:27000526

  4. The role of topography on catchment‐scale water residence time

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuire, K.J.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Weiler, M.; Kendall, C.; McGlynn, B.L.; Welker, J.M.; Seibert, J.

    2005-01-01

    The age, or residence time, of water is a fundamental descriptor of catchment hydrology, revealing information about the storage, flow pathways, and source of water in a single integrated measure. While there has been tremendous recent interest in residence time estimation to characterize watersheds, there are relatively few studies that have quantified residence time at the watershed scale, and fewer still that have extended those results beyond single catchments to larger landscape scales. We examined topographic controls on residence time for seven catchments (0.085–62.4 km2) that represent diverse geologic and geomorphic conditions in the western Cascade Mountains of Oregon. Our primary objective was to determine the dominant physical controls on catchment‐scale water residence time and specifically test the hypothesis that residence time is related to the size of the basin. Residence times were estimated by simple convolution models that described the transfer of precipitation isotopic composition to the stream network. We found that base flow mean residence times for exponential distributions ranged from 0.8 to 3.3 years. Mean residence time showed no correlation to basin area (r2 organization (i.e., topography) rather than basin area controls catchment‐scale transport. Results from this study may provide a framework for describing scale‐invariant transport across climatic and geologic conditions, whereby the internal form and structure of the basin defines the first‐order control on base flow residence time.

  5. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  6. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Xu, Lilai, E-mail: llxu@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Gao, Peiqing, E-mail: peiqing15@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China); Cui, Shenghui, E-mail: shcui@iue.ac.cn [Key Lab of Urban Environment and Health, Institute of Urban Environment, Chinese Academy of Sciences, 1799 Jimei Road, Xiamen 361021 (China); Xiamen Key Lab of Urban Metabolism, Xiamen 361021 (China); Liu, Chun, E-mail: xmhwlc@yahoo.com.cn [Xiamen City Appearance and Environmental Sanitation Management Office, 51 Hexiangxi Road, Xiamen 361004 (China)

    2013-06-15

    Highlights: ► We propose a hybrid model that combines seasonal SARIMA model and grey system theory. ► The model is robust at multiple time scales with the anticipated accuracy. ► At month-scale, the SARIMA model shows good representation for monthly MSW generation. ► At medium-term time scale, grey relational analysis could yield the MSW generation. ► At long-term time scale, GM (1, 1) provides a basic scenario of MSW generation. - Abstract: Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 – 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 – 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to

  7. Suspected survivor bias in case-control studies: stratify on survival time and use a negative control.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Rein, Nienke; Cannegieter, Suzanne C; Rosendaal, Frits R; Reitsma, Pieter H; Lijfering, Willem M

    2014-02-01

    Selection bias in case-control studies occurs when control selection is inappropriate. However, selection bias due to improper case sampling is less well recognized. We describe how to recognize survivor bias (i.e., selection on exposed cases) and illustrate this with an example study. A case-control study was used to analyze the effect of statins on major bleedings during treatment with vitamin K antagonists. A total of 110 patients who experienced such bleedings were included 18-1,018 days after the bleeding complication and matched to 220 controls. A protective association of major bleeding for exposure to statins (odds ratio [OR]: 0.56; 95% confidence interval: 0.29-1.08) was found, which did not become stronger after adjustment for confounding factors. These observations lead us to suspect survivor bias. To identify this bias, results were stratified on time between bleeding event and inclusion, and repeated for a negative control (an exposure not related to survival): blood group non-O. The ORs for exposure to statins increased gradually to 1.37 with shorter time between outcome and inclusion, whereas ORs for the negative control remained constant, confirming our hypothesis. We recommend the presented method to check for overoptimistic results, that is, survivor bias in case-control studies. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  8. Fractional Sobolev’s Spaces on Time Scales via Conformable Fractional Calculus and Their Application to a Fractional Differential Equation on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yanning Wang

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Using conformable fractional calculus on time scales, we first introduce fractional Sobolev spaces on time scales, characterize them, and define weak conformable fractional derivatives. Second, we prove the equivalence of some norms in the introduced spaces and derive their completeness, reflexivity, uniform convexity, and compactness of some imbeddings, which can be regarded as a novelty item. Then, as an application, we present a recent approach via variational methods and critical point theory to obtain the existence of solutions for a p-Laplacian conformable fractional differential equation boundary value problem on time scale T:  Tα(Tαup-2Tα(u(t=∇F(σ(t,u(σ(t, Δ-a.e.  t∈a,bTκ2, u(a-u(b=0, Tα(u(a-Tα(u(b=0, where Tα(u(t denotes the conformable fractional derivative of u of order α at t, σ is the forward jump operator, a,b∈T,  01, and F:[0,T]T×RN→R. By establishing a proper variational setting, we obtain three existence results. Finally, we present two examples to illustrate the feasibility and effectiveness of the existence results.

  9. Double Scaling in the Relaxation Time in the β -Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lvov, Yuri V.; Onorato, Miguel

    2018-04-01

    We consider the original β -Fermi-Pasta-Ulam-Tsingou system; numerical simulations and theoretical arguments suggest that, for a finite number of masses, a statistical equilibrium state is reached independently of the initial energy of the system. Using ensemble averages over initial conditions characterized by different Fourier random phases, we numerically estimate the time scale of equipartition and we find that for very small nonlinearity it matches the prediction based on exact wave-wave resonant interaction theory. We derive a simple formula for the nonlinear frequency broadening and show that when the phenomenon of overlap of frequencies takes place, a different scaling for the thermalization time scale is observed. Our result supports the idea that the Chirikov overlap criterion identifies a transition region between two different relaxation time scalings.

  10. The number and microlocalization of tumor-associated immune cells are associated with patient's survival time in non-small cell lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dai, Fuqiang; Liu, Lunxu; Che, Guowei; Yu, Nanbin; Pu, Qiang; Zhang, Shangfu; Ma, Junliang; Ma, Lin; You, Zongbing

    2010-01-01

    Tumor microenvironment is composed of tumor cells, fibroblasts, endothelial cells, and infiltrating immune cells. Tumor-associated immune cells may inhibit or promote tumor growth and progression. This study was conducted to determine whether the number and microlocalization of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells in non-small cell lung cancer are associated with patient's survival time. Ninety-nine patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) were included in this retrospective study. Paraffin-embedded NSCLC specimens and their clinicopathological data including up to 8-year follow-up information were used. Immunohistochemical staining for CD68 (marker for macrophages), CD83 (marker for mature dendritic cells), and CD8 (marker for cytotoxic T cells) was performed and evaluated in a blinded fashion. The numbers of immune cells in tumor islets and stroma, tumor islets, or tumor stroma were counted under a microscope. Correlation of the cell numbers and patient's survival time was analyzed using the Statistical Package for the Social Sciences (version 13.0). The numbers of macrophages, mature dendritic cells and cytotoxic T cells were significantly more in the tumor stroma than in the tumor islets. The number of macrophages in the tumor islets was positively associated with patient's survival time, whereas the number of macrophages in the tumor stroma was negatively associated with patient's survival time in both univariate and multivariate analyses. The number of mature dendritic cells in the tumor islets and stroma, tumor islets only, or tumor stroma only was positively associated with patient's survival time in a univariate analysis but not in a multivariate analysis. The number of cytotoxic T cells in the tumor islets and stroma was positively associated with patient's survival time in a univariate analysis but not in a multivariate analysis. The number of cytotoxic T cells in the tumor islets only or stroma

  11. Multi-Scale Entropy Analysis as a Method for Time-Series Analysis of Climate Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Heiko Balzter

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence is mounting that the temporal dynamics of the climate system are changing at the same time as the average global temperature is increasing due to multiple climate forcings. A large number of extreme weather events such as prolonged cold spells, heatwaves, droughts and floods have been recorded around the world in the past 10 years. Such changes in the temporal scaling behaviour of climate time-series data can be difficult to detect. While there are easy and direct ways of analysing climate data by calculating the means and variances for different levels of temporal aggregation, these methods can miss more subtle changes in their dynamics. This paper describes multi-scale entropy (MSE analysis as a tool to study climate time-series data and to identify temporal scales of variability and their change over time in climate time-series. MSE estimates the sample entropy of the time-series after coarse-graining at different temporal scales. An application of MSE to Central European, variance-adjusted, mean monthly air temperature anomalies (CRUTEM4v is provided. The results show that the temporal scales of the current climate (1960–2014 are different from the long-term average (1850–1960. For temporal scale factors longer than 12 months, the sample entropy increased markedly compared to the long-term record. Such an increase can be explained by systems theory with greater complexity in the regional temperature data. From 1961 the patterns of monthly air temperatures are less regular at time-scales greater than 12 months than in the earlier time period. This finding suggests that, at these inter-annual time scales, the temperature variability has become less predictable than in the past. It is possible that climate system feedbacks are expressed in altered temporal scales of the European temperature time-series data. A comparison with the variance and Shannon entropy shows that MSE analysis can provide additional information on the

  12. An exploratory discrete-time multilevel analysis of the effect of social support on the survival of elderly people in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Feng, Zhixin; Jones, Kelvyn; Wang, Wenfei Winnie

    2015-01-01

    This study undertakes a survival analysis of elderly persons in China using Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey 2002–2008. Employing discrete-time multilevel models, we explored the effect of social support on the survival of elderly people in China. This study focuses on objective (living arrangements and received support) and subjective activities (perceived support) of social support, finding that the effect of different activities of social support on the survival of elderly people varies according to the availability of different support resources. Specifically, living with a spouse, financial independence, perceiving care support from any resource is associated with higher survival rates for elderly people. Separate analysis focusing on urban elderly and rural elderly revealed broadly similar results. There is a larger difference between those perceiving care support from family or social service and not perceiving care support in urban areas comparing to those in rural areas. Those who cannot pay medical expenses are the least likely to survive. The higher level of economic development in province has no significant effect on the survival of elderly people for the whole sample model and the elderly people in urban areas; however, there is a negative influence on the survival of the rural elderly people. PMID:25703671

  13. Results of surgical excision and evaluation of factors associated with survival time in dogs with lingual neoplasia: 97 cases (1995-2008).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Culp, William T N; Ehrhart, Nicole; Withrow, Stephen J; Rebhun, Robert B; Boston, Sarah; Buracco, Paolo; Reiter, Alexander M; Schallberger, Sandra P; Aldridge, Charles F; Kent, Michael S; Mayhew, Philipp D; Brown, Dorothy C

    2013-05-15

    To describe the clinical characteristics, treatments, outcomes, and factors associated with survival time in a cohort of dogs with lingual neoplasia that underwent surgical excision. Retrospective case series. Animals-97 client-owned dogs. Medical records of dogs with a lingual tumor examined between 1995 and 2008 were reviewed. Records were included if a lingual tumor was confirmed by histologic examination and surgical excision of the mass was attempted. Data were recorded and analyzed to identify prognostic factors. Clinical signs were mostly related to the oral cavity. For 93 dogs, marginal excision, subtotal glossectomy, and near-total glossectomy were performed in 35 (38%), 55 (59%), and 3 (3%), respectively. Surgery-related complications were rare, but 27 (28%) dogs had tumor recurrence. The most common histopathologic diagnoses for the 97 dogs were squamous cell carcinoma (31 [32%]) and malignant melanoma (29 [30%]). Eighteen (19%) dogs developed metastatic disease, and the overall median survival time was 483 days. Median survival time was 216 days for dogs with squamous cell carcinoma and 241 days for dogs with malignant melanoma. Dogs with lingual tumors ≥ 2 cm in diameter at diagnosis had a significantly shorter survival time than did dogs with tumors melanoma predominate. A thorough physical examination to identify lingual tumors at an early stage and surgical treatment after tumor identification are recommended because tumor size significantly affected survival time.

  14. Studying time of flight imaging through scattering media across multiple size scales (Conference Presentation)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Velten, Andreas

    2017-05-01

    Light scattering is a primary obstacle to optical imaging in a variety of different environments and across many size and time scales. Scattering complicates imaging on large scales when imaging through the atmosphere when imaging from airborne or space borne platforms, through marine fog, or through fog and dust in vehicle navigation, for example in self driving cars. On smaller scales, scattering is the major obstacle when imaging through human tissue in biomedical applications. Despite the large variety of participating materials and size scales, light transport in all these environments is usually described with very similar scattering models that are defined by the same small set of parameters, including scattering and absorption length and phase function. We attempt a study of scattering and methods of imaging through scattering across different scales and media, particularly with respect to the use of time of flight information. We can show that using time of flight, in addition to spatial information, provides distinct advantages in scattering environments. By performing a comparative study of scattering across scales and media, we are able to suggest scale models for scattering environments to aid lab research. We also can transfer knowledge and methodology between different fields.

  15. Overcoming time scale and finite size limitations to compute nucleation rates from small scale well tempered metadynamics simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salvalaglio, Matteo; Tiwary, Pratyush; Maggioni, Giovanni Maria; Mazzotti, Marco; Parrinello, Michele

    2016-12-01

    Condensation of a liquid droplet from a supersaturated vapour phase is initiated by a prototypical nucleation event. As such it is challenging to compute its rate from atomistic molecular dynamics simulations. In fact at realistic supersaturation conditions condensation occurs on time scales that far exceed what can be reached with conventional molecular dynamics methods. Another known problem in this context is the distortion of the free energy profile associated to nucleation due to the small, finite size of typical simulation boxes. In this work the problem of time scale is addressed with a recently developed enhanced sampling method while contextually correcting for finite size effects. We demonstrate our approach by studying the condensation of argon, and showing that characteristic nucleation times of the order of magnitude of hours can be reliably calculated. Nucleation rates spanning a range of 10 orders of magnitude are computed at moderate supersaturation levels, thus bridging the gap between what standard molecular dynamics simulations can do and real physical systems.

  16. Urban Freight Management with Stochastic Time-Dependent Travel Times and Application to Large-Scale Transportation Networks

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Shichao Sun

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper addressed the vehicle routing problem (VRP in large-scale urban transportation networks with stochastic time-dependent (STD travel times. The subproblem which is how to find the optimal path connecting any pair of customer nodes in a STD network was solved through a robust approach without requiring the probability distributions of link travel times. Based on that, the proposed STD-VRP model can be converted into solving a normal time-dependent VRP (TD-VRP, and algorithms for such TD-VRPs can also be introduced to obtain the solution. Numerical experiments were conducted to address STD-VRPTW of practical sizes on a real world urban network, demonstrated here on the road network of Shenzhen, China. The stochastic time-dependent link travel times of the network were calibrated by historical floating car data. A route construction algorithm was applied to solve the STD problem in 4 delivery scenarios efficiently. The computational results showed that the proposed STD-VRPTW model can improve the level of customer service by satisfying the time-window constraint under any circumstances. The improvement can be very significant especially for large-scale network delivery tasks with no more increase in cost and environmental impacts.

  17. Mountain erosion over 10 yr, 10 k.y., and 10 m.y. time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    James W. Kirchner; Robert C. Finkel; Clifford S. Riebe; Darryl E. Granger; James L. Clayton; John G. King; Walter F. Megahan

    2001-01-01

    We used cosmogenic 10Be to measure erosion rates over 10 k.y. time scales at 32 Idaho mountain catchments, ranging from small experimental watersheds (0.2 km2) to large river basins (35 000 km2). These long-term sediment yields are, on average, 17 times higher than stream sediment fluxes measured over...

  18. Multi-time, multi-scale correlation functions in turbulence and in turbulent models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Biferale, L.; Boffetta, G.; Celani, A.; Toschi, F.

    1999-01-01

    A multifractal-like representation for multi-time, multi-scale velocity correlation in turbulence and dynamical turbulent models is proposed. The importance of subleading contributions to time correlations is highlighted. The fulfillment of the dynamical constraints due to the equations of motion is

  19. Mixing and flushing time scales in the Azhikode Estuary, southwest coast of India

    Digital Repository Service at National Institute of Oceanography (India)

    Revichandran, C.; Pylee, A.

    Flushing time scales of the Azhikode Estuary, Kerala, India showed pronounced dry season and wet season signals as well as large inter-annual variation. Cumulative flushing time of the estuary varies from 4.8 tide cycles in April to 1.22 tide cycles...

  20. Time Scale Analysis of Interest Rate Spreads and Output Using Wavelets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marco Gallegati

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available This paper adds to the literature on the information content of different spreads for real activity by explicitly taking into account the time scale relationship between a variety of monetary and financial indicators (real interest rate, term and credit spreads and output growth. By means of wavelet-based exploratory data analysis we obtain richer results relative to the aggregate analysis by identifying the dominant scales of variation in the data and the scales and location at which structural breaks have occurred. Moreover, using the “double residuals” regression analysis on a scale-by-scale basis, we find that changes in the spread in several markets have different information content for output at different time frames. This is consistent with the idea that allowing for different time scales of variation in the data can provide a fruitful understanding of the complex dynamics of economic relationships between variables with non-stationary or transient components, certainly richer than those obtained using standard time domain methods.

  1. Projective synchronization of time-varying delayed neural network with adaptive scaling factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ghosh, Dibakar; Banerjee, Santo

    2013-01-01

    Highlights: • Projective synchronization in coupled delayed neural chaotic systems with modulated delay time is introduced. • An adaptive rule for the scaling factors is introduced. • This scheme is highly applicable in secure communication. -- Abstract: In this work, the projective synchronization between two continuous time delayed neural systems with time varying delay is investigated. A sufficient condition for synchronization for the coupled systems with modulated delay is presented analytically with the help of the Krasovskii–Lyapunov approach. The effect of adaptive scaling factors on synchronization are also studied in details. Numerical simulations verify the effectiveness of the analytic results

  2. Time scales of the stick–slip dynamics of the peeling of an adhesive tape

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Nachiketa; Parida, Nigam Chandra; Raha, Soumyendu

    2015-01-01

    The stick–slip dynamics of the peeling of an adhesive tape is characterized by bifurcations that have been experimentally well studied. In this work, we investigate the time scale in which the the stick–slips happen leading to the bifurcations. This is fundamental to understanding the triboluminescence and acoustic emissions associated with the bifurcations. We establish a relationship between the time scale of the bifurcations and the inherent mathematical structure of the peeling dynamics by studying a characteristic time quantity associated with the dynamics. PMID:25663802

  3. Efficacy of Re-188-labelled sulphur colloid on prolongation of survival time in melanoma-bearing animals

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, F.D.; Hsieh, B.T.; Wang, H.E.; Ou, Y.H.; Yang, W.K.; Whang-Peng, J.; Liu, R.S.; Knapp, F.F.; Ting, G.; Yen, S.H.

    2001-01-01

    In this study, the effectiveness of a 188 Re labeled sulfur colloid with two particle size ranges was used to evaluate the effectiveness of this agent on melanoma tumors in mice in terms of animal lifespan. Methods: Two separate group of animals were used for investigating biodistribution and survival time. A total of 188 B16F10-melanoma-bearing BDF 1 mice were injected intraperitoneally with 3.7 MBq (0.1mCi)/2mL of radiolabeled sulfur colloid ten days after intraperitoneal inoculation of 5x10 5 B16F10 melanoma cells/2ml. For group 1, 30 mice were sacrificed at 1, 4, 24, 48 and 72 hours for biodistribution studies. In group 2, 158 mice were divided into 9 groups (n=16∼18/groups)each receiving respectively tumor alone, tumor with normal saline, cold colloid or hot colloid with 16, 23, 31, 46, 62, or 124 MBq activity. Each of these colloid groups was further divided into two groups, one receiving smaller particle sizes ( 188 Re-sulfur colloid is an effective agent in controlling tumor cells in the abdominal cavity in animals

  4. A hybrid procedure for MSW generation forecasting at multiple time scales in Xiamen City, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lilai; Gao, Peiqing; Cui, Shenghui; Liu, Chun

    2013-06-01

    Accurate forecasting of municipal solid waste (MSW) generation is crucial and fundamental for the planning, operation and optimization of any MSW management system. Comprehensive information on waste generation for month-scale, medium-term and long-term time scales is especially needed, considering the necessity of MSW management upgrade facing many developing countries. Several existing models are available but of little use in forecasting MSW generation at multiple time scales. The goal of this study is to propose a hybrid model that combines the seasonal autoregressive integrated moving average (SARIMA) model and grey system theory to forecast MSW generation at multiple time scales without needing to consider other variables such as demographics and socioeconomic factors. To demonstrate its applicability, a case study of Xiamen City, China was performed. Results show that the model is robust enough to fit and forecast seasonal and annual dynamics of MSW generation at month-scale, medium- and long-term time scales with the desired accuracy. In the month-scale, MSW generation in Xiamen City will peak at 132.2 thousand tonnes in July 2015 - 1.5 times the volume in July 2010. In the medium term, annual MSW generation will increase to 1518.1 thousand tonnes by 2015 at an average growth rate of 10%. In the long term, a large volume of MSW will be output annually and will increase to 2486.3 thousand tonnes by 2020 - 2.5 times the value for 2010. The hybrid model proposed in this paper can enable decision makers to develop integrated policies and measures for waste management over the long term. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the D-loop region of mitochondrial DNA is associated with the kidney survival time in chronic kidney disease patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Jinsheng; Guo, Zhanjun; Bai, Yaling; Zhang, Junxia; Cui, Liwen; Zhang, Huiran; Zhang, Shenglei; Ai, Xiaolu

    2015-02-01

    The mitochondrial displacement loop (D-loop) is known to accumulate mutations and SNPs at a higher frequency than other regions of mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA). We had identified chronic kidney disease (CKD) risk-associated SNPs in the D-loop of CKD patients previously. In this study, we investigated the association of SNPs in the D-loop of mtDNA with the kidney survival of CKD. The D-loop region of mtDNA was sequenced for 119 CKD patients from the inpatient of the Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to identify disease outcome-associated SNPs in the D-loop of CKD patients. The Cox proportional hazards model was used to identify risk factors for the kidney survival of CKD. In the present study, we identified 20 SNPs with a frequency higher than 5% and assessed the relationship of these SNPs with kidney survival time in CKD patients, a SNP of 146 was identified by log-rank test for statistically significant prediction of the kidney survival time. In an overall multivariate analysis, allele 146 was identified as an independent predictor of kidney survival time in CKD patients. The survival time of kidney in the CKD patients with 146C was significantly shorter than that of kidney in CKD patients with 146T (relative risk, 2.336; 95% CI, 1.319-3.923; p = 0.001). SNPs in the D-loop can predict the kidney survival of CKD patients. Analysis of genetic polymorphisms in the mitochondrial D-loop can help to identify CKD patient subgroup at high risk of a poor disease outcome.

  6. Expression of S1P metabolizing enzymes and receptors correlate with survival time and regulate cell migration in glioblastoma multiforme.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bien-Möller, Sandra; Lange, Sandra; Holm, Tobias; Böhm, Andreas; Paland, Heiko; Küpper, Johannes; Herzog, Susann; Weitmann, Kerstin; Havemann, Christoph; Vogelgesang, Silke; Marx, Sascha; Hoffmann, Wolfgang; Schroeder, Henry W S; Rauch, Bernhard H

    2016-03-15

    A signaling molecule which is involved in proliferation and migration of malignant cells is the lipid mediator sphingosine-1-phosphate (S1P). There are hints for a potential role of S1P signaling in malignant brain tumors such as glioblastoma multiforme (GBM) which is characterized by a poor prognosis. Therefore, a comprehensive expression analysis of S1P receptors (S1P1-S1P5) and S1P metabolizing enzymes in human GBM (n = 117) compared to healthy brain (n = 10) was performed to evaluate their role for patient´s survival. Furthermore, influence of S1P receptor inhibition on proliferation and migration were studied in LN18 GBM cells. Compared to control brain, mRNA levels of S1P1, S1P2, S1P3 and S1P generating sphingosine kinase-1 were elevated in GBM. Kaplan-Meier analyses demonstrated an association between S1P1 and S1P2 with patient´s survival times. In vitro, an inhibitory effect of the SphK inhibitor SKI-II on viability of LN18 cells was shown. S1P itself had no effect on viability but stimulated LN18 migration which was blocked by inhibition of S1P1 and S1P2. The participation of S1P1 and S1P2 in LN18 migration was further supported by siRNA-mediated silencing of these receptors. Immunoblots and inhibition experiments suggest an involvement of the PI3-kinase/AKT1 pathway in the chemotactic effect of S1P in LN18 cells.In summary, our data argue for a role of S1P signaling in proliferation and migration of GBM cells. Individual components of the S1P pathway represent prognostic factors for patients with GBM. Perspectively, a selective modulation of S1P receptor subtypes could represent a therapeutic approach for GBM patients and requires further evaluation.

  7. A multiple-time-scale approach to the control of ITBs on JET

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Laborde, L.; Mazon, D.; Moreau, D. [EURATOM-CEA Association (DSM-DRFC), CEA Cadarache, 13 - Saint Paul lez Durance (France); Moreau, D. [Culham Science Centre, EFDA-JET, Abingdon, OX (United Kingdom); Ariola, M. [EURATOM/ENEA/CREATE Association, Univ. Napoli Federico II, Napoli (Italy); Cordoliani, V. [Ecole Polytechnique, 91 - Palaiseau (France); Tala, T. [EURATOM-Tekes Association, VTT Processes (Finland)

    2005-07-01

    The simultaneous real-time control of the current and temperature gradient profiles could lead to the steady state sustainment of an internal transport barrier (ITB) and so to a stationary optimized plasma regime. Recent experiments in JET have demonstrated significant progress in achieving such a control: different current and temperature gradient target profiles have been reached and sustained for several seconds using a controller based on a static linear model. It's worth noting that the inverse safety factor profile evolves on a slow time scale (resistive time) while the normalized electron temperature gradient reacts on a faster one (confinement time). Moreover these experiments have shown that the controller was sensitive to rapid plasma events such as transient ITBs during the safety factor profile evolution or MHD instabilities which modify the pressure profiles on the confinement time scale. In order to take into account the different dynamics of the controlled profiles and to better react to rapid plasma events the control technique is being improved by using a multiple-time-scale approximation. The paper describes the theoretical analysis and closed-loop simulations using a control algorithm based on two-time-scale state-space model. These closed-loop simulations using the full dynamic but linear model used for the controller design to simulate the plasma response have demonstrated that this new controller allows the normalized electron temperature gradient target profile to be reached faster than the one used in previous experiments. (A.C.)

  8. A multiple-time-scale approach to the control of ITBs on JET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Laborde, L.; Mazon, D.; Moreau, D.; Moreau, D.; Ariola, M.; Cordoliani, V.; Tala, T.

    2005-01-01

    The simultaneous real-time control of the current and temperature gradient profiles could lead to the steady state sustainment of an internal transport barrier (ITB) and so to a stationary optimized plasma regime. Recent experiments in JET have demonstrated significant progress in achieving such a control: different current and temperature gradient target profiles have been reached and sustained for several seconds using a controller based on a static linear model. It's worth noting that the inverse safety factor profile evolves on a slow time scale (resistive time) while the normalized electron temperature gradient reacts on a faster one (confinement time). Moreover these experiments have shown that the controller was sensitive to rapid plasma events such as transient ITBs during the safety factor profile evolution or MHD instabilities which modify the pressure profiles on the confinement time scale. In order to take into account the different dynamics of the controlled profiles and to better react to rapid plasma events the control technique is being improved by using a multiple-time-scale approximation. The paper describes the theoretical analysis and closed-loop simulations using a control algorithm based on two-time-scale state-space model. These closed-loop simulations using the full dynamic but linear model used for the controller design to simulate the plasma response have demonstrated that this new controller allows the normalized electron temperature gradient target profile to be reached faster than the one used in previous experiments. (A.C.)

  9. Scaling of the first-passage time of biased diffusion on hierarchical comb structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lin Zhifang; Tao Ruibao.

    1989-12-01

    Biased diffusion on hierarchical comb structures is studied within an exact renormalization group scheme. The scaling exponents of the moments of the first-passage time for random walks are obtained. It is found that the scaling properties of the diffusion depend only on the direction of bias. In this particular case, the presence of bias may give rise to a new multifractality. (author). 7 refs, 2 figs

  10. Antipersistent dynamics in short time scale variability of self-potential signals

    OpenAIRE

    Cuomo, V.; Lanfredi, M.; Lapenna, V.; Macchiato, M.; Ragosta, M.; Telesca, L.

    2000-01-01

    Time scale properties of self-potential signals are investigated through the analysis of the second order structure function (variogram), a powerful tool to investigate the spatial and temporal variability of observational data. In this work we analyse two sequences of self-potential values measured by means of a geophysical monitoring array located in a seismically active area of Southern Italy. The range of scales investigated goes from a few minutes to several days. It is shown that signal...

  11. Timing of millennial-scale climate change in Antarctica and Greenland during the last glacial period

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Blunier, T; Brook, E J

    2001-01-01

    A precise relative chronology for Greenland and West Antarctic paleotemperature is extended to 90,000 years ago, based on correlation of atmospheric methane records from the Greenland Ice Sheet Project 2 and Byrd ice cores. Over this period, the onset of seven major millennial-scale warmings in A....... This pattern provides further evidence for the operation of a "bipolar see-saw" in air temperatures and an oceanic teleconnection between the hemispheres on millennial time scales....

  12. An alcator-like confinement time scaling law derived from buckingham's PI theorem

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Roth, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    The unsatisfactory state of understanding of particle transport and confinement in tokamaks is well known. The best available theory, neoclassical transport, predicts a confinement time which scales as the square of the magnetic field, and inversely as the number density. Until recently, the best available phenomenological scaling law was the Alcator scaling law. This scaling law has recently been supplanted by the neoAlcator scaling law. Both of these expressions are unsatisfactory, because they not only are unsupported by any physical theory, but also their numerical constants are dimensional, suggesting that additional physical parameters need to be accounted for. A more firmly based scaling law can be derived from Buckingham's pi theorem. We adopt the particle confinement time as the dependent variable (derived dimension), and as independent variables (fundamental dimensions) we use the plasma volume, the average ion charge density, the ion current on the limiter, and the magnetic induction. From Buckingham's pi theorem, we obtain an equation which correctly predicts the absence of magnetic induction dependence, and the direct dependence on the ion density. The dependence on the product of the major radius and the plasma radius is intermediate between the original and neoAlcator scaling laws, and may be consistent with the data if the ion kinetic temperature and limiter area were accounted for

  13. First off-time treatment prostate-specific antigen kinetics predicts survival in intermittent androgen deprivation for prostate cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanchez-Salas, Rafael; Olivier, Fabien; Prapotnich, Dominique; Dancausa, José; Fhima, Mehdi; David, Stéphane; Secin, Fernando P; Ingels, Alexandre; Barret, Eric; Galiano, Marc; Rozet, François; Cathelineau, Xavier

    2016-01-01

    Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) doubling time is relying on an exponential kinetic pattern. This pattern has never been validated in the setting of intermittent androgen deprivation (IAD). Objective is to analyze the prognostic significance for PCa of recurrent patterns in PSA kinetics in patients undergoing IAD. A retrospective study was conducted on 377 patients treated with IAD. On-treatment period (ONTP) consisted of gonadotropin-releasing hormone agonist injections combined with oral androgen receptor antagonist. Off-treatment period (OFTP) began when PSA was lower than 4 ng/ml. ONTP resumed when PSA was higher than 20 ng/ml. PSA values of each OFTP were fitted with three basic patterns: exponential (PSA(t) = λ.e(αt)), linear (PSA(t) = a.t), and power law (PSA(t) = a.t(c)). Univariate and multivariate Cox regression model analyzed predictive factors for oncologic outcomes. Only 45% of the analyzed OFTPs were exponential. Linear and power law PSA kinetics represented 7.5% and 7.7%, respectively. Remaining fraction of analyzed OFTPs (40%) exhibited complex kinetics. Exponential PSA kinetics during the first OFTP was significantly associated with worse oncologic outcome. The estimated 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS) was 46% for exponential versus 80% for nonexponential PSA kinetics patterns. The corresponding 10-year probability of castration-resistant prostate cancer (CRPC) was 69% and 31% for the two patterns, respectively. Limitations include retrospective design and mixed indications for IAD. PSA kinetic fitted with exponential pattern in approximately half of the OFTPs. First OFTP exponential PSA kinetic was associated with a shorter time to CRPC and worse CSS. © 2015 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  14. Theoretical restrictions on longest implicit time scales in Markov state models of biomolecular dynamics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sinitskiy, Anton V.; Pande, Vijay S.

    2018-01-01

    Markov state models (MSMs) have been widely used to analyze computer simulations of various biomolecular systems. They can capture conformational transitions much slower than an average or maximal length of a single molecular dynamics (MD) trajectory from the set of trajectories used to build the MSM. A rule of thumb claiming that the slowest implicit time scale captured by an MSM should be comparable by the order of magnitude to the aggregate duration of all MD trajectories used to build this MSM has been known in the field. However, this rule has never been formally proved. In this work, we present analytical results for the slowest time scale in several types of MSMs, supporting the above rule. We conclude that the slowest implicit time scale equals the product of the aggregate sampling and four factors that quantify: (1) how much statistics on the conformational transitions corresponding to the longest implicit time scale is available, (2) how good the sampling of the destination Markov state is, (3) the gain in statistics from using a sliding window for counting transitions between Markov states, and (4) a bias in the estimate of the implicit time scale arising from finite sampling of the conformational transitions. We demonstrate that in many practically important cases all these four factors are on the order of unity, and we analyze possible scenarios that could lead to their significant deviation from unity. Overall, we provide for the first time analytical results on the slowest time scales captured by MSMs. These results can guide further practical applications of MSMs to biomolecular dynamics and allow for higher computational efficiency of simulations.

  15. High-resolution time-frequency representation of EEG data using multi-scale wavelets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Yang; Cui, Wei-Gang; Luo, Mei-Lin; Li, Ke; Wang, Lina

    2017-09-01

    An efficient time-varying autoregressive (TVAR) modelling scheme that expands the time-varying parameters onto the multi-scale wavelet basis functions is presented for modelling nonstationary signals and with applications to time-frequency analysis (TFA) of electroencephalogram (EEG) signals. In the new parametric modelling framework, the time-dependent parameters of the TVAR model are locally represented by using a novel multi-scale wavelet decomposition scheme, which can allow the capability to capture the smooth trends as well as track the abrupt changes of time-varying parameters simultaneously. A forward orthogonal least square (FOLS) algorithm aided by mutual information criteria are then applied for sparse model term selection and parameter estimation. Two simulation examples illustrate that the performance of the proposed multi-scale wavelet basis functions outperforms the only single-scale wavelet basis functions or Kalman filter algorithm for many nonstationary processes. Furthermore, an application of the proposed method to a real EEG signal demonstrates the new approach can provide highly time-dependent spectral resolution capability.

  16. Analysis of passive scalar advection in parallel shear flows: Sorting of modes at intermediate time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Camassa, Roberto; McLaughlin, Richard M.; Viotti, Claudio

    2010-11-01

    The time evolution of a passive scalar advected by parallel shear flows is studied for a class of rapidly varying initial data. Such situations are of practical importance in a wide range of applications from microfluidics to geophysics. In these contexts, it is well-known that the long-time evolution of the tracer concentration is governed by Taylor's asymptotic theory of dispersion. In contrast, we focus here on the evolution of the tracer at intermediate time scales. We show how intermediate regimes can be identified before Taylor's, and in particular, how the Taylor regime can be delayed indefinitely by properly manufactured initial data. A complete characterization of the sorting of these time scales and their associated spatial structures is presented. These analytical predictions are compared with highly resolved numerical simulations. Specifically, this comparison is carried out for the case of periodic variations in the streamwise direction on the short scale with envelope modulations on the long scales, and show how this structure can lead to "anomalously" diffusive transients in the evolution of the scalar onto the ultimate regime governed by Taylor dispersion. Mathematically, the occurrence of these transients can be viewed as a competition in the asymptotic dominance between large Péclet (Pe) numbers and the long/short scale aspect ratios (LVel/LTracer≡k), two independent nondimensional parameters of the problem. We provide analytical predictions of the associated time scales by a modal analysis of the eigenvalue problem arising in the separation of variables of the governing advection-diffusion equation. The anomalous time scale in the asymptotic limit of large k Pe is derived for the short scale periodic structure of the scalar's initial data, for both exactly solvable cases and in general with WKBJ analysis. In particular, the exactly solvable sawtooth flow is especially important in that it provides a short cut to the exact solution to the

  17. New time scale based k-epsilon model for near-wall turbulence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Z.; Shih, T. H.

    1993-01-01

    A k-epsilon model is proposed for wall bonded turbulent flows. In this model, the eddy viscosity is characterized by a turbulent velocity scale and a turbulent time scale. The time scale is bounded from below by the Kolmogorov time scale. The dissipation equation is reformulated using this time scale and no singularity exists at the wall. The damping function used in the eddy viscosity is chosen to be a function of R(sub y) = (k(sup 1/2)y)/v instead of y(+). Hence, the model could be used for flows with separation. The model constants used are the same as in the high Reynolds number standard k-epsilon model. Thus, the proposed model will be also suitable for flows far from the wall. Turbulent channel flows at different Reynolds numbers and turbulent boundary layer flows with and without pressure gradient are calculated. Results show that the model predictions are in good agreement with direct numerical simulation and experimental data.

  18. Stable carbon and nitrogen isotope variation in the northern lampfish and Neocalanus, marine survival rates of pink salmon, and meso-scale eddies in the Gulf of Alaska

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kline, Thomas C., Jr.

    2010-10-01

    Northern lampfish (NLF), Stenobrachius leucopsarus (Myctophidae), the dominant pelagic fish taxon of the subarctic North Pacific Ocean, were sampled opportunistically in MOCNESS tows made on continental slope waters of the Gulf of Alaska (GOA) as well as in deep areas of Prince William Sound (PWS) during 1997-2006. The overall mean whole-body lipid-corrected stable carbon isotope value of NLF from the GOA was -21.4 (SD = 0.7) whereas that from PWS was -19.5 (SD = 0.9). This pattern is similar to that observed for late feeding stage Neocalanus cristatus copepods thus confirming a mean cross-shelf carbon stable isotope gradient. As well, there was a statistically significant positive correlation between the considerable temporal variation in the monthly mean carbon stable isotope composition of GOA Neocalanus and GOA NLF ( r = 0.69, P food chain length whereas carbon stable isotopes reflect organic carbon production. The carbon stable isotope values of NLF, measured in May, were positively correlated to marine survival rate of PWS hatchery salmon cohorts entering the marine environment the same year ( r = 0.84, P < 0.001). The carbon stable isotope values for Neocalanus in May were also positively correlated to salmon marine survival ( r = 0.82, P < 0.001). Processes thus manifested through the carbon stable isotope value of biota from the continental slope more closely predicted marine survival rate than that of the salmon themselves. The incipient relationships suggested by the correlations are consistent with the hypothesis that exchange between coastal and oceanic waters in the study area is driven by meso-scale eddies. These eddies facilitate the occurrence of slope phytoplankton blooms as well as drive oceanic zooplankton subsidies into coastal waters. The strong as well as more significant correlations of salmon marine survival rate to NLF as well as slope Neocalanus carbon stable isotope values point to processes taking place at the slope (i.e., interactions

  19. Effect of time interval between capecitabine intake and radiotherapy on local recurrence-free survival in preoperative chemoradiation for locally advanced rectal cancer

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Yeon Joo; Kim, Jong Hoon; Yu, Chang Sik; Kim, Tae Won; Jang, Se Jin; Choi, Eun Kyung; Kim, Jin Cheon [Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Choi, Won Sik [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Gangneung (Korea, Republic of)

    2017-06-15

    The concentration of capecitabine peaks at 1–2 hours after administration. We therefore assumed that proper timing of capecitabine administration and radiotherapy would maximize radiosensitization and influence survival among patients with locally advanced rectal cancer. We retrospectively reviewed 223 patients with locally advanced rectal cancer who underwent preoperative chemoradiation, followed by surgery from January 2002 to May 2006. All patients underwent pelvic radiotherapy (50 Gy/25 fractions) and received capecitabine twice daily at 12-hour intervals (1,650 mg/m2/day). Patients were divided into two groups according to the time interval between capecitabine intake and radiotherapy. Patients who took capecitabine 1 hour before radiotherapy were classified as Group A (n = 109); all others were classified as Group B (n = 114). The median follow-up period was 72 months (range, 7 to 149 months). Although Group A had a significantly higher rate of good responses (44% vs. 25%; p = 0.005), the 5-year local recurrence-free survival rates of 93% in Group A and 97% in Group B did not differ significantly (p = 0.519). The 5-year disease-free survival and overall survival rates were also comparable between the groups. Despite the better pathological response in Group A, the time interval between capecitabine and radiotherapy administration did not have a significant effect on survivals. Further evaluations are needed to clarify the interaction of these treatment modalities.

  20. Consequences of cold-ischemia time on primary nonfunction and patient and graft survival in liver transplantation: a meta-analysis.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    James E Stahl

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available The ability to preserve organs prior to transplant is essential to the organ allocation process.The purpose of this study is to describe the functional relationship between cold-ischemia time (CIT and primary nonfunction (PNF, patient and graft survival in liver transplant.To identify relevant articles Medline, EMBASE and the Cochrane database, including the non-English literature identified in these databases, was searched from 1966 to April 2008. Two independent reviewers screened and extracted the data. CIT was analyzed both as a continuous variable and stratified by clinically relevant intervals. Nondichotomous variables were weighted by sample size. Percent variables were weighted by the inverse of the binomial variance.Twenty-six studies met criteria. Functionally, PNF% = -6.678281+0.9134701*CIT Mean+0.1250879*(CIT Mean-9.895352-0.0067663*(CIT Mean-9.895353, r2 = .625, , p<.0001. Mean patient survival: 93% (1 month, 88% (3 months, 83% (6 months and 83% (12 months. Mean graft survival: 85.9% (1 month, 80.5% (3 months, 78.1% (6 months and 76.8% (12 months. Maximum patient and graft survival occurred with CITs between 7.5-12.5 hrs at each survival interval. PNF was also significantly correlated with ICU time, % first time grafts and % immunologic mismatches.The results of this work imply that CIT may be the most important pre-transplant information needed in the decision to accept an organ.

  1. Scale-invariant Green-Kubo relation for time-averaged diffusivity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meyer, Philipp; Barkai, Eli; Kantz, Holger

    2017-12-01

    In recent years it was shown both theoretically and experimentally that in certain systems exhibiting anomalous diffusion the time- and ensemble-averaged mean-squared displacement are remarkably different. The ensemble-averaged diffusivity is obtained from a scaling Green-Kubo relation, which connects the scale-invariant nonstationary velocity correlation function with the transport coefficient. Here we obtain the relation between time-averaged diffusivity, usually recorded in single-particle tracking experiments, and the underlying scale-invariant velocity correlation function. The time-averaged mean-squared displacement is given by 〈δ2¯〉 ˜2 DνtβΔν -β , where t is the total measurement time and Δ is the lag time. Here ν is the anomalous diffusion exponent obtained from ensemble-averaged measurements 〈x2〉 ˜tν , while β ≥-1 marks the growth or decline of the kinetic energy 〈v2〉 ˜tβ . Thus, we establish a connection between exponents that can be read off the asymptotic properties of the velocity correlation function and similarly for the transport constant Dν. We demonstrate our results with nonstationary scale-invariant stochastic and deterministic models, thereby highlighting that systems with equivalent behavior in the ensemble average can differ strongly in their time average. If the averaged kinetic energy is finite, β =0 , the time scaling of 〈δ2¯〉 and 〈x2〉 are identical; however, the time-averaged transport coefficient Dν is not identical to the corresponding ensemble-averaged diffusion constant.

  2. Computational Fluid Dynamics Study on the Effects of RATO Timing on the Scale Model Acoustic Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nielsen, Tanner; Williams, B.; West, Jeff

    2015-01-01

    The Scale Model Acoustic Test (SMAT) is a 5% scale test of the Space Launch System (SLS), which is currently being designed at Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC). The purpose of this test is to characterize and understand a variety of acoustic phenomena that occur during the early portions of lift off, one being the overpressure environment that develops shortly after booster ignition. The SLS lift off configuration consists of four RS-25 liquid thrusters on the core stage, with two solid boosters connected to each side. Past experience with scale model testing at MSFC (in ER42), has shown that there is a delay in the ignition of the Rocket Assisted Take Off (RATO) motor, which is used as the 5% scale analog of the solid boosters, after the signal to ignite is given. This delay can range from 0 to 16.5ms. While this small of a delay maybe insignificant in the case of the full scale SLS, it can significantly alter the data obtained during the SMAT due to the much smaller geometry. The speed of sound of the air and combustion gas constituents is not scaled, and therefore the SMAT pressure waves propagate at approximately the same speed as occurs during full scale. However, the SMAT geometry is much smaller allowing the pressure waves to move down the exhaust duct, through the trench, and impact the vehicle model much faster than occurs at full scale. To better understand the effect of the RATO timing simultaneity on the SMAT IOP test data, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis was performed using the Loci/CHEM CFD software program. Five different timing offsets, based on RATO ignition delay statistics, were simulated. A variety of results and comparisons will be given, assessing the overall effect of RATO timing simultaneity on the SMAT overpressure environment.

  3. Time scales of magma transport and mixing at Kīlauea Volcano, Hawai’i

    OpenAIRE

    Rae, Auriol S.P.; Edmonds, Marie; Maclennan, John; Morgan, Daniel; Houghton, Bruce; Hartley, Margaret E.; Sides, Isobel

    2016-01-01

    Modeling of volcanic processes is limited by a lack of knowledge of the time scales of storage, mixing, and final ascent of magmas into the shallowest portions of volcanic plumbing systems immediately prior to eruption. It is impossible to measure these time scales directly; however, micro-analytical techniques provide indirect estimates based on the extent of diffusion of species through melts and crystals. We use diffusion in olivine phenocrysts from the A.D. 1959 Kīlauea Iki (Hawai‘i, USA)...

  4. Doubly stochastic Poisson process models for precipitation at fine time-scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ramesh, Nadarajah I.; Onof, Christian; Xie, Dichao

    2012-09-01

    This paper considers a class of stochastic point process models, based on doubly stochastic Poisson processes, in the modelling of rainfall. We examine the application of this class of models, a neglected alternative to the widely-known Poisson cluster models, in the analysis of fine time-scale rainfall intensity. These models are mainly used to analyse tipping-bucket raingauge data from a single site but an extension to multiple sites is illustrated which reveals the potential of this class of models to study the temporal and spatial variability of precipitation at fine time-scales.

  5. Time scale of scour around a pile in combined waves and current

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Petersen, Thor Ugelvig; Sumer, B. Mutlu; Fredsøe, Jørgen

    The time scale of the scour process around a circular vertical pile is studied in combined waves and current. A series of tests were carried out in a flume with pile diameters 40 mm and 75 mm, in both steady current, waves and combined waves and current. In the combined wave and current flow regime...... the waves and the current were co-directional. All the tests were conducted in the live bed regime. The time scale of scour in combined waves and current is governed by three parameters, namely the current-velocity-to-wave-velocity ratio (Ucw), the Keulegan–Carpenter number (KC) and Shields parameter (Θw...

  6. Rapid-mixing studies on the time-scale of radiation damage in cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adams, G.E.; Michael, B.D.; Asquith, J.C.; Shenoy, M.A.; Watts, M.E.; Whillans, D.W.

    1975-01-01

    Rapid mixing studies were performed to determine the time scale of radiation damage in cells. There is evidence that the sensitizing effects of oxygen and other chemical dose-modifying agents on the response of cells to ionizing radiation involve fast free-radical processes. Fast response technique studies in bacterial systems have shown that extremely fast processes occur when the bacteria are exposed to oxygen or other dose-modifying agents during irradiation. The time scales observed were consistent with the involvement of fast free-radical reactions in the expression of these effects

  7. New Bounds of Ostrowski–Gruss Type Inequality for (k + 1 Points on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eze R. Nwaeze

    2017-11-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to present three new bounds of the Ostrowski--Gr\\"uss type inequality for points $x_0,x_1,x_2,\\cdots,x_k$ on time scales. Our results generalize result of Ng\\^o and Liu, and extend results of Ujevi\\'c to time scales with $(k+1$ points. We apply our results to the continuous, discrete, and quantum calculus to obtain many new interesting inequalities. An example is also considered. The estimates obtained in this paper will be very useful in numerical integration especially for the continuous case.

  8. Time-dependent approach to collisional ionization using exterior complex scaling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCurdy, C. William; Horner, Daniel A.; Rescigno, Thomas N.

    2002-01-01

    We present a time-dependent formulation of the exterior complex scaling method that has previously been used to treat electron-impact ionization of the hydrogen atom accurately at low energies. The time-dependent approach solves a driven Schroedinger equation, and scales more favorably with the number of electrons than the original formulation. The method is demonstrated in calculations for breakup processes in two dimensions (2D) and three dimensions for systems involving short-range potentials and in 2D for electron-impact ionization in the Temkin-Poet model for electron-hydrogen atom collisions

  9. Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Scales are a visible peeling or flaking of outer skin layers. These layers are called the stratum ... Scales may be caused by dry skin, certain inflammatory skin conditions, or infections. Examples of disorders that ...

  10. Time-sliced perturbation theory for large scale structure I: general formalism

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blas, Diego; Garny, Mathias; Sibiryakov, Sergey [Theory Division, CERN, CH-1211 Genève 23 (Switzerland); Ivanov, Mikhail M., E-mail: diego.blas@cern.ch, E-mail: mathias.garny@cern.ch, E-mail: mikhail.ivanov@cern.ch, E-mail: sergey.sibiryakov@cern.ch [FSB/ITP/LPPC, École Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne, CH-1015, Lausanne (Switzerland)

    2016-07-01

    We present a new analytic approach to describe large scale structure formation in the mildly non-linear regime. The central object of the method is the time-dependent probability distribution function generating correlators of the cosmological observables at a given moment of time. Expanding the distribution function around the Gaussian weight we formulate a perturbative technique to calculate non-linear corrections to cosmological correlators, similar to the diagrammatic expansion in a three-dimensional Euclidean quantum field theory, with time playing the role of an external parameter. For the physically relevant case of cold dark matter in an Einstein-de Sitter universe, the time evolution of the distribution function can be found exactly and is encapsulated by a time-dependent coupling constant controlling the perturbative expansion. We show that all building blocks of the expansion are free from spurious infrared enhanced contributions that plague the standard cosmological perturbation theory. This paves the way towards the systematic resummation of infrared effects in large scale structure formation. We also argue that the approach proposed here provides a natural framework to account for the influence of short-scale dynamics on larger scales along the lines of effective field theory.

  11. Influence of the time scale on the construction of financial networks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Emmert-Streib, Frank; Dehmer, Matthias

    2010-09-30

    In this paper we investigate the definition and formation of financial networks. Specifically, we study the influence of the time scale on their construction. For our analysis we use correlation-based networks obtained from the daily closing prices of stock market data. More precisely, we use the stocks that currently comprise the Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) and estimate financial networks where nodes correspond to stocks and edges correspond to none vanishing correlation coefficients. That means only if a correlation coefficient is statistically significant different from zero, we include an edge in the network. This construction procedure results in unweighted, undirected networks. By separating the time series of stock prices in non-overlapping intervals, we obtain one network per interval. The length of these intervals corresponds to the time scale of the data, whose influence on the construction of the networks will be studied in this paper. Numerical analysis of four different measures in dependence on the time scale for the construction of networks allows us to gain insights about the intrinsic time scale of the stock market with respect to a meaningful graph-theoretical analysis.

  12. A retrospective analysis of survival outcomes for two different radiotherapy fractionation schedules given in the same overall time for limited stage small cell lung cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bettington, Catherine S.; Bryant, Guy; Hickey, Brigid; Tripcony, Lee; Pratt, Gary; Fay, Michael

    2013-01-01

    To compare survival outcomes for two fractionation schedules of thoracic radiotherapy, both given over 3 weeks, in patients with limited stage small cell lung cancer (LS-SCLC). At Radiation Oncology Mater Centre (ROMC) and the Royal Brisbane and Women's Hospital (RBWH), patients with LS-SCLC treated with curative intent are given radiotherapy (with concurrent chemotherapy) to a dose of either 40Gy in 15 fractions ('the 40Gy/15⧣group') or 45Gy in 30 fractions ('the 45Gy/30⧣group'). The choice largely depends on institutional preference. Both these schedules are given over 3 weeks, using daily and twice-daily fractionation respectively. The records of all such patients treated from January 2000 to July 2009 were retrospectively reviewed and survival outcomes between the two groups compared. Of 118 eligible patients, there were 38 patients in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 41 patients in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The median relapse-free survival time was 12 months in both groups. Median overall survival was 21 months (95% CI 2–37 months) in the 40Gy/15⧣ group and 26 months (95% CI 1–48 months) in the 45Gy/30⧣ group. The 5-year overall survival rates were 20% and 25%, respectively (P=0.24). On multivariate analysis, factors influencing overall survival were: whether prophylactic cranial irradiation (PCI) was given (P=0.01) and whether salvage chemotherapy was given at the time of relapse (P=0.057). Given the small sample size, the potential for selection bias and the retrospective nature of our study it is not possible to draw firm conclusions regarding the efficacy of hypofractionated thoracic radiotherapy compared with hyperfractionated accelerated thoracic radiotherapy however hypofractionated radiotherapy may result in equivalent relapse-free survival.

  13. Resolution, Scales and Predictability: Is High Resolution Detrimental To Predictability At Extended Forecast Times?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mesinger, F.

    The traditional views hold that high-resolution limited area models (LAMs) down- scale large-scale lateral boundary information, and that predictability of small scales is short. Inspection of various rms fits/errors has contributed to these views. It would follow that the skill of LAMs should visibly deteriorate compared to that of their driver models at more extended forecast times. The limited area Eta Model at NCEP has an additional handicap of being driven by LBCs of the previous Avn global model run, at 0000 and 1200 UTC estimated to amount to about an 8 h loss in accuracy. This should make its relative skill compared to that of the Avn deteriorate even faster. These views are challenged by various Eta results including rms fits to raobs out to 84 h. It is argued that it is the largest scales that contribute the most to the skill of the Eta relative to that of the Avn.

  14. Time-variable gravity potential components for optical clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Voigt, C.; Denker, H.; Timmen, L.

    2016-01-01

    The latest generation of optical atomic clocks is approaching the level of one part in 10 18 in terms of frequency stability and uncertainty. For clock comparisons and the definition of international time scales, a relativistic redshift effect of the clock frequencies has to be taken into account at a corresponding uncertainty level of about 0.1 m 2 s -2 and 0.01 m in terms of gravity potential and height, respectively. Besides the predominant static part of the gravity potential, temporal variations must be considered in order to avoid systematic frequency shifts. Time-variable gravity potential components induced by tides and non-tidal mass redistributions are investigated with regard to the level of one part in 10 18 . The magnitudes and dominant time periods of the individual gravity potential contributions are investigated globally and for specific laboratory sites together with the related uncertainty estimates. The basics of the computation methods are presented along with the applied models, data sets and software. Solid Earth tides contribute by far the most dominant signal with a global maximum amplitude of 4.2 m 2 s -2 for the potential and a range (maximum-to-minimum) of up to 1.3 and 10.0 m 2 s -2 in terms of potential differences between specific laboratories over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. Amplitudes of the ocean tidal loading potential can amount up to 1.25 m 2 s -2 , while the range of the potential between specific laboratories is 0.3 and 1.1 m 2 s -2 over continental and intercontinental scales, respectively. These are the only two contributors being relevant at a 10 -17 level. However, several other time-variable potential effects can particularly affect clock comparisons at the 10 -18 level. Besides solid Earth pole tides, these are non-tidal mass redistributions in the atmosphere, the oceans and the continental water storage. (authors)

  15. Investigation of Growth and Survival of Transplanted Plane and Pine Trees According to IBA Application, Tree Age, Transplanting Time and Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Etemadi

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available The major problems in transplanting the landscape trees are high level of mortality and low establishment rate of transplanted trees, especially in the first year. In order to achieve the best condition for successful transplanting of pine and plane trees in Isfahan landscape, the present study was carried out based on a completely randomized block design with four replicates and three treatments including transplanting method (balled and burlapped and bare root, tree age (immature and mature and IBA application (0 and 150 mg/L. Trees were transplanted during 2009 and 2010 in three times (dormant season, early and late growing season. Survival rate and Relative Growth Rate index based on tree height (RGRH and trunk diameter (RGRD were measured during the first and second years. Trees transplanted early in the growing season showed the most survival percentage during the two years, as compared to other transplanting dates. Survival of Balled and burlapped and immature transplanted trees was significantly greater than bare root or mature trees. The significant effect of age treatment was continued in the second year. IBA treatment had no effect on survival rate of the studied species. Balled and burlapped and immature transplanted pine trees also had higher RGRH and RGRD compared to bare root or mature trees. According to the results of this study, early growing season is the best time for transplanting pine and plane trees. Also, transplanting of immature trees using balled and burlapped method is recommended to increase the survival and establishment rate.

  16. Cosmological special relativity the large scale structure of space, time and velocity

    CERN Document Server

    Carmeli, Moshe

    1997-01-01

    This book deals with special relativity theory and its application to cosmology. It presents Einstein's theory of space and time in detail, and describes the large scale structure of space, time and velocity as a new cosmological special relativity. A cosmological Lorentz-like transformation, which relates events at different cosmic times, is derived and applied. A new law of addition of cosmic times is obtained, and the inflation of the space at the early universe is derived, both from the cosmological transformation. The book will be of interest to cosmologists, astrophysicists, theoretical

  17. Cosmological special relativity the large scale structure of space, time and velocity

    CERN Document Server

    Carmeli, Moshe

    2002-01-01

    This book presents Einstein's theory of space and time in detail, and describes the large-scale structure of space, time and velocity as a new cosmological special relativity. A cosmological Lorentz-like transformation, which relates events at different cosmic times, is derived and applied. A new law of addition of cosmic times is obtained, and the inflation of the space at the early universe is derived, both from the cosmological transformation. The relationship between cosmic velocity, acceleration and distances is given. In the appendices gravitation is added in the form of a cosmological g

  18. Time-scale effects on the gain-loss asymmetry in stock indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sándor, Bulcsú; Simonsen, Ingve; Nagy, Bálint Zsolt; Néda, Zoltán

    2016-08-01

    The gain-loss asymmetry, observed in the inverse statistics of stock indices is present for logarithmic return levels that are over 2 % , and it is the result of the non-Pearson-type autocorrelations in the index. These non-Pearson-type correlations can be viewed also as functionally dependent daily volatilities, extending for a finite time interval. A generalized time-window shuffling method is used to show the existence of such autocorrelations. Their characteristic time scale proves to be smaller (less than 25 trading days) than what was previously believed. It is also found that this characteristic time scale has decreased with the appearance of program trading in the stock market transactions. Connections with the leverage effect are also established.

  19. Linking Time and Space Scales in Distributed Hydrological Modelling - a case study for the VIC model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Melsen, Lieke; Teuling, Adriaan; Torfs, Paul; Zappa, Massimiliano; Mizukami, Naoki; Clark, Martyn; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    One of the famous paradoxes of the Greek philosopher Zeno of Elea (~450 BC) is the one with the arrow: If one shoots an arrow, and cuts its motion into such small time steps that at every step the arrow is standing still, the arrow is motionless, because a concatenation of non-moving parts does not create motion. Nowadays, this reasoning can be refuted easily, because we know that motion is a change in space over time, which thus by definition depends on both time and space. If one disregards time by cutting it into infinite small steps, motion is also excluded. This example shows that time and space are linked and therefore hard to evaluate separately. As hydrologists we want to understand and predict the motion of water, which means we have to look both in space and in time. In hydrological models we can account for space by using spatially explicit models. With increasing computational power and increased data availability from e.g. satellites, it has become easier to apply models at a higher spatial resolution. Increasing the resolution of hydrological models is also labelled as one of the 'Grand Challenges' in hydrology by Wood et al. (2011) and Bierkens et al. (2014), who call for global modelling at hyperresolution (~1 km and smaller). A literature survey on 242 peer-viewed articles in which the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model was used, showed that the spatial resolution at which the model is applied has decreased over the past 17 years: From 0.5 to 2 degrees when the model was just developed, to 1/8 and even 1/32 degree nowadays. On the other hand the literature survey showed that the time step at which the model is calibrated and/or validated remained the same over the last 17 years; mainly daily or monthly. Klemeš (1983) stresses the fact that space and time scales are connected, and therefore downscaling the spatial scale would also imply downscaling of the temporal scale. Is it worth the effort of downscaling your model from 1 degree to 1

  20. Scaling relation between earthquake magnitude and the departure time from P wave similar growth

    Science.gov (United States)

    Noda, Shunta; Ellsworth, William L.

    2016-01-01

    We introduce a new scaling relation between earthquake magnitude (M) and a characteristic of initial P wave displacement. By examining Japanese K-NET data averaged in bins partitioned by Mw and hypocentral distance, we demonstrate that the P wave displacement briefly displays similar growth at the onset of rupture and that the departure time (Tdp), which is defined as the time of departure from similarity of the absolute displacement after applying a band-pass filter, correlates with the final M in a range of 4.5 ≤ Mw ≤ 7. The scaling relation between Mw and Tdp implies that useful information on the final M can be derived while the event is still in progress because Tdp occurs before the completion of rupture. We conclude that the scaling relation is important not only for earthquake early warning but also for the source physics of earthquakes.

  1. A Systematic Multi-Time Scale Solution for Regional Power Grid Operation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhu, W. J.; Liu, Z. G.; Cheng, T.; Hu, B. Q.; Liu, X. Z.; Zhou, Y. F.

    2017-10-01

    Many aspects need to be taken into consideration in a regional grid while making schedule plans. In this paper, a systematic multi-time scale solution for regional power grid operation considering large scale renewable energy integration and Ultra High Voltage (UHV) power transmission is proposed. In the time scale aspect, we discuss the problem from month, week, day-ahead, within-day to day-behind, and the system also contains multiple generator types including thermal units, hydro-plants, wind turbines and pumped storage stations. The 9 subsystems of the scheduling system are described, and their functions and relationships are elaborated. The proposed system has been constructed in a provincial power grid in Central China, and the operation results further verified the effectiveness of the system.

  2. Spatiotemporal patterns of drought at various time scales in Shandong Province of Eastern China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuo, Depeng; Cai, Siyang; Xu, Zongxue; Li, Fulin; Sun, Wenchao; Yang, Xiaojing; Kan, Guangyuan; Liu, Pin

    2018-01-01

    The temporal variations and spatial patterns of drought in Shandong Province of Eastern China were investigated by calculating the standardized precipitation evapotranspiration index (SPEI) at 1-, 3-, 6-, 12-, and 24-month time scales. Monthly precipitation and air temperature time series during the period 1960-2012 were collected at 23 meteorological stations uniformly distributed over the region. The non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was used to explore the temporal trends of precipitation, air temperature, and the SPEI drought index. S-mode principal component analysis (PCA) was applied to identify the spatial patterns of drought. The results showed that an insignificant decreasing trend in annual total precipitation was detected at most stations, a significant increase of annual average air temperature occurred at all the 23 stations, and a significant decreasing trend in the SPEI was mainly detected at the coastal stations for all the time scales. The frequency of occurrence of extreme and severe drought at different time scales generally increased with decades; higher frequency and larger affected area of extreme and severe droughts occurred as the time scale increased, especially for the northwest of Shandong Province and Jiaodong peninsular. The spatial pattern of drought for SPEI-1 contains three regions: eastern Jiaodong Peninsular and northwestern and southern Shandong. As the time scale increased to 3, 6, and 12 months, the order of the three regions was transformed into another as northwestern Shandong, eastern Jiaodong Peninsular, and southern Shandong. For SPEI-24, the location identified by REOF1 was slightly shifted from northwestern Shandong to western Shandong, and REOF2 and REOF3 identified another two weak patterns in the south edge and north edge of Jiaodong Peninsular, respectively. The potential causes of drought and the impact of drought on agriculture in the study area have also been discussed. The temporal variations and spatial patterns

  3. The Space-Time Conservative Schemes for Large-Scale, Time-Accurate Flow Simulations with Tetrahedral Meshes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Venkatachari, Balaji Shankar; Streett, Craig L.; Chang, Chau-Lyan; Friedlander, David J.; Wang, Xiao-Yen; Chang, Sin-Chung

    2016-01-01

    Despite decades of development of unstructured mesh methods, high-fidelity time-accurate simulations are still predominantly carried out on structured, or unstructured hexahedral meshes by using high-order finite-difference, weighted essentially non-oscillatory (WENO), or hybrid schemes formed by their combinations. In this work, the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) method is used to simulate several flow problems including supersonic jet/shock interaction and its impact on launch vehicle acoustics, and direct numerical simulations of turbulent flows using tetrahedral meshes. This paper provides a status report for the continuing development of the space-time conservation element solution element (CESE) numerical and software framework under the Revolutionary Computational Aerosciences (RCA) project. Solution accuracy and large-scale parallel performance of the numerical framework is assessed with the goal of providing a viable paradigm for future high-fidelity flow physics simulations.

  4. Multidimensional scaling analysis of financial time series based on modified cross-sample entropy methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, Jiayi; Shang, Pengjian; Xiong, Hui

    2018-06-01

    Stocks, as the concrete manifestation of financial time series with plenty of potential information, are often used in the study of financial time series. In this paper, we utilize the stock data to recognize their patterns through out the dissimilarity matrix based on modified cross-sample entropy, then three-dimensional perceptual maps of the results are provided through multidimensional scaling method. Two modified multidimensional scaling methods are proposed in this paper, that is, multidimensional scaling based on Kronecker-delta cross-sample entropy (MDS-KCSE) and multidimensional scaling based on permutation cross-sample entropy (MDS-PCSE). These two methods use Kronecker-delta based cross-sample entropy and permutation based cross-sample entropy to replace the distance or dissimilarity measurement in classical multidimensional scaling (MDS). Multidimensional scaling based on Chebyshev distance (MDSC) is employed to provide a reference for comparisons. Our analysis reveals a clear clustering both in synthetic data and 18 indices from diverse stock markets. It implies that time series generated by the same model are easier to have similar irregularity than others, and the difference in the stock index, which is caused by the country or region and the different financial policies, can reflect the irregularity in the data. In the synthetic data experiments, not only the time series generated by different models can be distinguished, the one generated under different parameters of the same model can also be detected. In the financial data experiment, the stock indices are clearly divided into five groups. Through analysis, we find that they correspond to five regions, respectively, that is, Europe, North America, South America, Asian-Pacific (with the exception of mainland China), mainland China and Russia. The results also demonstrate that MDS-KCSE and MDS-PCSE provide more effective divisions in experiments than MDSC.

  5. Sensitivity of the breastfeeding motivational measurement scale: a known group analysis of first time mothers.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stockdale, Janine; Sinclair, Marlene; Kernohan, George; McCrum-Gardner, Evie; Keller, John

    2013-01-01

    Breastfeeding has immense public health value for mothers, babies, and society. But there is an undesirably large gap between the number of new mothers who undertake and persist in breastfeeding compared to what would be a preferred level of accomplishment. This gap is a reflection of the many obstacles, both physical and psychological, that confront new mothers. Previous research has illuminated many of these concerns, but research on this problem is limited in part by the unavailability of a research instrument that can measure the key differences between first-time mothers and experienced mothers, with regard to the challenges they face when breastfeeding and the instructional advice they require. An instrument was designed to measure motivational complexity associated with sustained breast feeding behaviour; the Breastfeeding Motivational Measurement Scale. It contains 51 self-report items (7 point Likert scale) that cluster into four categories related to perceived value of breast-feeding, confidence to succeed, factors that influence success or failure, and strength of intentions, or goal. However, this scale has not been validated in terms of its sensitivity to profile the motivation of new mothers and experienced mothers. This issue was investigated by having 202 breastfeeding mothers (100 first time mothers) fill out the scale. The analysis reported in this paper is a three factor solution consisting of value, midwife support, and expectancies for success that explained the characteristics of first time mothers as a known group. These results support the validity of the BMM scale as a diagnostic tool for research on first time mothers who are learning to breastfeed. Further research studies are required to further test the validity of the scale in additional subgroups.

  6. Evaluation of real-time operating system for small-scale embedded systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dayang Norhayati Abang Jawawi; Rosbi Mamat

    1999-01-01

    In this paper, the performance of some real-time operating systems for small-scale embedded systems are evaluated based on some criteria. The evaluation is performed qualitatively and quantitatively. The evaluation results based on a case study on an engineering application will be presented. (author)

  7. Hardy inequality on time scales and its application to half-linear dynamic equations

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Řehák Pavel

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available A time-scale version of the Hardy inequality is presented, which unifies and extends well-known Hardy inequalities in the continuous and in the discrete setting. An application in the oscillation theory of half-linear dynamic equations is given.

  8. Modeling heat dominated electric breakdown in air, with adaptivity to electron or ion time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Agnihotri, A.; Hundsdorfer, W.; Ebert, U.

    2017-01-01

    We model heat dominated electrical breakdown in air in a short planar gap. We couple the discharge dynamics in fluid approximation with the hydrodynamic motion of the air heated by the discharge. To be computationally efficient, we derive a reduced model on the ion time scale, and we switch between

  9. A limit set trichotomy for order-preserving systems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Christian Poetzsche

    2004-04-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we derive a limit set trichotomy for abstract order-preserving 2-parameter semiflows in normal cones of strongly ordered Banach spaces. Additionally, to provide an example, Muller's theorem is generalized to dynamic equations on arbitrary time scales and applied to a model from population dynamics.

  10. Extension of the astronomically calibrated (polarity) time scale to the Miocene/Pliocene boundary

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hilgen, F.J.

    1991-01-01

    The early Pleistocene to late Pliocene astronormcally calibrated time scale of Shackleton et al. [1] and Hllgen [2] is extended to the Mlocene/Pllocene boundary This is done by correlating the detailed record of CaCO 3 cycles in the Trubl and the lower part of the overlying Narbone Formation

  11. Arctic energy budget in relation to sea ice variability on monthly-to-annual time scales

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Krikken, F.; Hazeleger, W.

    2015-01-01

    The large decrease in Arctic sea ice in recent years has triggered a strong interest in Arctic sea ice predictions on seasonal-to-decadal time scales. Hence, it is important to understand physical processes that provide enhanced predictability beyond persistence of sea ice anomalies. This study

  12. Fixation of competing strategies when interacting agents differ in the time scale of strategy updating

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Zhang, Jianlei; Weissing, Franz J.; Cao, Ming

    2016-01-01

    A commonly used assumption in evolutionary game theory is that natural selection acts on individuals in the same time scale; e.g., players use the same frequency to update their strategies. Variation in learning rates within populations suggests that evolutionary game theory may not necessarily be

  13. Time-scale effects in the interaction between a large and a small herbivore

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kuijper, D. P. J.; Beek, P.; van Wieren, S.E.; Bakker, J. P.

    2008-01-01

    In the short term, grazing will mainly affect plant biomass and forage quality. However, grazing can affect plant species composition by accelerating or retarding succession at longer time-scales. Few studies concerning interactions among herbivores have taken the change in plant species composition

  14. Natural variability of atmospheric temperatures and geomagnetic intensity over a wide range of time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pelletier, Jon D

    2002-02-19

    The majority of numerical models in climatology and geomagnetism rely on deterministic finite-difference techniques and attempt to include as many empirical constraints on the many processes and boundary conditions applicable to their very complex systems. Despite their sophistication, many of these models are unable to reproduce basic aspects of climatic or geomagnetic dynamics. We show that a simple stochastic model, which treats the flux of heat energy in the atmosphere by convective instabilities with random advection and diffusive mixing, does a remarkable job at matching the observed power spectrum of historical and proxy records for atmospheric temperatures from time scales of one day to one million years (Myr). With this approach distinct changes in the power-spectral form can be associated with characteristic time scales of ocean mixing and radiative damping. Similarly, a simple model of the diffusion of magnetic intensity in Earth's core coupled with amplification and destruction of the local intensity can reproduce the observed 1/f noise behavior of Earth's geomagnetic intensity from time scales of 1 (Myr) to 100 yr. In addition, the statistics of the fluctuations in the polarity reversal rate from time scales of 1 Myr to 100 Myr are consistent with the hypothesis that reversals are the result of variations in 1/f noise geomagnetic intensity above a certain threshold, suggesting that reversals may be associated with internal fluctuations rather than changes in mantle thermal or magnetic boundary conditions.

  15. Time scales: from Nabla calculus to Delta calculus and vice versa via duality

    OpenAIRE

    Caputo, M. Cristina

    2009-01-01

    In this note we show how one can obtain results from the nabla calculus from results on the delta calculus and vice versa via a duality argument. We provide applications of the main results to the calculus of variations on time scales.

  16. A Visual Method of Time Scale Determination using a PC for Radio ...

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Variability is one of the extremely observational properties. In the radio bands, variability is caused by the shock in the jet. In this case, emissions increase rapidly following an exponential curve, and then decrease rapidly also in an exponential curve. The variability time scale is important with regard to the physics ...

  17. Anti-control of chaos of single time-scale brushless DC motor.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ge, Zheng-Ming; Chang, Ching-Ming; Chen, Yen-Sheng

    2006-09-15

    Anti-control of chaos of single time-scale brushless DC motors is studied in this paper. In order to analyse a variety of periodic and chaotic phenomena, we employ several numerical techniques such as phase portraits, bifurcation diagrams and Lyapunov exponents. Anti-control of chaos can be achieved by adding an external constant term or an external periodic term.

  18. Principal and nonprincipal solutions of symplectic dynamic systems on time scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ondrej Dosly

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available We establish the concept of the principal and nonprincipal solution for the so-called symplectic dynamic systems on time scales. We also present a brief survey of the history of these concept for differential and difference equations.

  19. Development and Preliminary Validation of the Time Management for Exercise Scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hellsten, Laurie-ann M.; Rogers, W. Todd

    2009-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to collect preliminary validity evidence for a time management scale for exercise. An initial pool of 91 items was developed from existing literature. Ten exercise/health psychologists evaluated each of the items in terms of relevance and representativeness. Forty-nine items met all criteria. Exploratory factor…

  20. Towards a Unified Formulation of Dynamics and Thermodynamics I. From Microscopic to Macroscopic Time Scales

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Durand, P.; Paidarová, Ivana

    2011-01-01

    Roč. 111, č. 2 (2011), s. 225-236 ISSN 0020-7608 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA100400501; GA AV ČR IAA401870702 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40400503 Keywords : Liouville equation * time scales * chemical kinetics and dynamics Subject RIV: CF - Physical ; Theoretical Chemistry Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2011

  1. Assessment of the methods for determining net radiation at different time-scales of meteorological variables

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ni An

    2017-04-01

    Full Text Available When modeling the soil/atmosphere interaction, it is of paramount importance to determine the net radiation flux. There are two common calculation methods for this purpose. Method 1 relies on use of air temperature, while Method 2 relies on use of both air and soil temperatures. Nowadays, there has been no consensus on the application of these two methods. In this study, the half-hourly data of solar radiation recorded at an experimental embankment are used to calculate the net radiation and long-wave radiation at different time-scales (half-hourly, hourly, and daily using the two methods. The results show that, compared with Method 2 which has been widely adopted in agronomical, geotechnical and geo-environmental applications, Method 1 is more feasible for its simplicity and accuracy at shorter time-scale. Moreover, in case of longer time-scale, daily for instance, less variations of net radiation and long-wave radiation are obtained, suggesting that no detailed soil temperature variations can be obtained. In other words, shorter time-scales are preferred in determining net radiation flux.

  2. Global Stability of Complex-Valued Genetic Regulatory Networks with Delays on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wang Yajing

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, the global exponential stability of complex-valued genetic regulatory networks with delays is investigated. Besides presenting conditions guaranteeing the existence of a unique equilibrium pattern, its global exponential stability is discussed. Some numerical examples for different time scales.

  3. How the constants in Hille-Nehari theorems depend on time scales

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Řehák, Pavel

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 2006, - (2006), s. 1-15 ISSN 1687-1839 R&D Pro jects: GA ČR(CZ) GA201/01/0079; GA ČR(CZ) GP201/01/P041 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z10190503 Keywords : dynamic equation * time scales * oscillation criteria Subject RIV: BA - General Mathematics

  4. Theoretical and Numerical Properties of a Gyrokinetic Plasma: Issues Related to Transport Time Scale Simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, W.W.

    2003-01-01

    Particle simulation has played an important role for the recent investigations on turbulence in magnetically confined plasmas. In this paper, theoretical and numerical properties of a gyrokinetic plasma as well as its relationship with magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) are discussed with the ultimate aim of simulating microturbulence in transport time scale using massively parallel computers

  5. Time scales for spinodal decomposition in nuclear matter with pseudo-particle model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idier, D.; Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F.

    1993-12-31

    Dynamical instabilities arising from fluctuations in the spinodal zone for nuclear matter are studied using a large variety of zero range interactions in the frame of a pseudo-particle model. Scale times for spinodal decomposition are extracted and a possible link with decomposition in real heavy-ion collisions is discussed. (author) 12 refs.; 6 figs.; 1 tab.

  6. Time scales for spinodal decomposition in nuclear matter with pseudo-particle model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idier, D.; Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F.

    1993-01-01

    Dynamical instabilities arising from fluctuations in the spinodal zone for nuclear matter are studied using a large variety of zero range interactions in the frame of a pseudo-particle model. Scale times for spinodal decomposition are extracted and a possible link with decomposition in real heavy-ion collisions is discussed. (author) 12 refs.; 6 figs.; 1 tab

  7. Time scales for spinodal decomposition in nuclear matter with pseudoparticle models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Idier, D.; Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F.

    1993-01-01

    Dynamical instabilities arising from fluctuations in the spinodal zone for nuclear matter are studied using a large variety of zero range interactions in the frame of a pseudoparticle model. Scale times for spinodal decomposition are extracted and a possible link with decomposition in real heavy-ion collisions is discussed

  8. Time scales for spinodal decomposition in nuclear matter with pseudoparticle models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Idier, D.; Benhassine, B.; Farine, M.; Remaud, B.; Sebille, F. (Laboratoire de Physique Nucleaire CNRS/IN2P3, Universite de Nantes, 2, rue de la Houssiniere, 44072 Nantes (France))

    1993-08-01

    Dynamical instabilities arising from fluctuations in the spinodal zone for nuclear matter are studied using a large variety of zero range interactions in the frame of a pseudoparticle model. Scale times for spinodal decomposition are extracted and a possible link with decomposition in real heavy-ion collisions is discussed.

  9. Non-Abelian Kubo formula and the multiple time-scale method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhang, X.; Li, J.

    1996-01-01

    The non-Abelian Kubo formula is derived from the kinetic theory. That expression is compared with the one obtained using the eikonal for a Chern endash Simons theory. The multiple time-scale method is used to study the non-Abelian Kubo formula, and the damping rate for longitudinal color waves is computed. copyright 1996 Academic Press, Inc

  10. Crystal plasticity based modeling of time and scale dependent behavior of thin films

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Erturk, I.; Gao, K.; Bielen, J.A.; Dommelen, van J.A.W.; Geers, M.G.D.

    2013-01-01

    The micro and sub-micro scale dimensions of the components of modern high-tech products pose challenging engineering problems that require advanced tools to tackle them. An example hereof is time dependent strain recovery, here referred to as anelasticity, which is observed in metallic thin film

  11. The effect of the time interval between diagnosis of muscle-invasive bladder cancer and radical cystectomy on staging and survival: A Netherlands Cancer Registry analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bruins, H.M.; Aben, K.K.H.; Arends, T.J.; Heijden, A.G. van der; Witjes, J.A.

    2016-01-01

    INTRODUCTION: Data from single-center series suggest that a delay in time to radical cystectomy (RC) more than 3 months after diagnosis of muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) is associated with pathological upstaging and decreased survival. However, limited data is available from population-based

  12. Existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Bing; Li, Yongkun; Zhang, Xuemei

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, by using the existence of the exponential dichotomy of linear dynamic equations on time scales and the theory of calculus on time scales, we study the existence and global exponential stability of periodic solutions for a class of n-dimensional neutral dynamic equations on time scales. We also present an example to illustrate the feasibility of our results. The results of this paper are completely new and complementary to the previously known results even in both the case of differential equations (time scale [Formula: see text]) and the case of difference equations (time scale [Formula: see text]).

  13. The swan song in context: long-time-scale X-ray variability of NGC 4051

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uttley, P.; McHardy, I. M.; Papadakis, I. E.; Guainazzi, M.; Fruscione, A.

    1999-07-01

    On 1998 May 9-11, the highly variable, low-luminosity Seyfert 1 galaxy NGC 4051 was observed in an unusual low-flux state by BeppoSAX, RXTE and EUVE. We present fits of the 4-15keV RXTE spectrum and BeppoSAX MECS spectrum obtained during this observation, which are consistent with the interpretation that the source had switched off, leaving only the spectrum of pure reflection from distant cold matter. We place this result in context by showing the X-ray light curve of NGC 4051 obtained by our RXTE monitoring campaign over the past two and a half years, which shows that the low state lasted for ~150d before the May observations (implying that the reflecting material is >10^17cm from the continuum source) and forms part of a light curve showing distinct variations in long-term average flux over time-scales > months. We show that the long-time-scale component to X-ray variability is intrinsic to the primary continuum and is probably distinct from the variability at shorter time-scales. The long-time-scale component to variability maybe associated with variations in the accretion flow of matter on to the central black hole. As the source approaches the low state, the variability process becomes non-linear. NGC 4051 may represent a microcosm of all X-ray variability in radio-quiet active galactic nuclei (AGNs), displaying in a few years a variety of flux states and variability properties which more luminous AGNs may pass through on time-scales of decades to thousands of years.

  14. Evaluation of scalar mixing and time scale models in PDF simulations of a turbulent premixed flame

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Stoellinger, Michael; Heinz, Stefan [Department of Mathematics, University of Wyoming, Laramie, WY (United States)

    2010-09-15

    Numerical simulation results obtained with a transported scalar probability density function (PDF) method are presented for a piloted turbulent premixed flame. The accuracy of the PDF method depends on the scalar mixing model and the scalar time scale model. Three widely used scalar mixing models are evaluated: the interaction by exchange with the mean (IEM) model, the modified Curl's coalescence/dispersion (CD) model and the Euclidean minimum spanning tree (EMST) model. The three scalar mixing models are combined with a simple model for the scalar time scale which assumes a constant C{sub {phi}}=12 value. A comparison of the simulation results with available measurements shows that only the EMST model calculates accurately the mean and variance of the reaction progress variable. An evaluation of the structure of the PDF's of the reaction progress variable predicted by the three scalar mixing models confirms this conclusion: the IEM and CD models predict an unrealistic shape of the PDF. Simulations using various C{sub {phi}} values ranging from 2 to 50 combined with the three scalar mixing models have been performed. The observed deficiencies of the IEM and CD models persisted for all C{sub {phi}} values considered. The value C{sub {phi}}=12 combined with the EMST model was found to be an optimal choice. To avoid the ad hoc choice for C{sub {phi}}, more sophisticated models for the scalar time scale have been used in simulations using the EMST model. A new model for the scalar time scale which is based on a linear blending between a model for flamelet combustion and a model for distributed combustion is developed. The new model has proven to be very promising as a scalar time scale model which can be applied from flamelet to distributed combustion. (author)

  15. A model for global diversity in response to temperature change over geological time scales, with reference to planktic organisms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    De Blasio, Fabio Vittorio; Liow, Lee Hsiang; Schweder, Tore; De Blasio, Birgitte Freiesleben

    2015-01-21

    There are strong propositions in the literature that abiotic factors override biotic drivers of diversity on time scales of the fossil record. In order to study the interaction of biotic and abiotic forces on long term changes, we devise a spatio-temporal discrete-time Markov process model of macroevolution featuring population formation, speciation, migration and extinction, where populations are free to migrate. In our model, the extinction probability of these populations is controlled by latitudinally and temporally varying environment (temperature) and competition. Although our model is general enough to be applicable to disparate taxa, we explicitly address planktic organisms, which are assumed to disperse freely without barriers over the Earth's oceans. While rapid and drastic environmental changes tend to eliminate many species, generalists preferentially survive and hence leave generalist descendants. In other words, environmental fluctuations result in generalist descendants which are resilient to future environmental changes. Periods of stable or slow environmental changes lead to more specialist species and higher population numbers. Simulating Cenozoic diversity dynamics with both competition and the environmental component of our model produces diversity curves that reflect current empirical knowledge, which cannot be obtained with just one component. Our model predicts that the average temperature optimum at which planktic species thrive best has declined over the Neogene, following the trend of global average temperatures. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  16. Robust scaling laws for energy confinement time, including radiated fraction, in Tokamaks

    Science.gov (United States)

    Murari, A.; Peluso, E.; Gaudio, P.; Gelfusa, M.

    2017-12-01

    In recent years, the limitations of scalings in power-law form that are obtained from traditional log regression have become increasingly evident in many fields of research. Given the wide gap in operational space between present-day and next-generation devices, robustness of the obtained models in guaranteeing reasonable extrapolability is a major issue. In this paper, a new technique, called symbolic regression, is reviewed, refined, and applied to the ITPA database for extracting scaling laws of the energy-confinement time at different radiated fraction levels. The main advantage of this new methodology is its ability to determine the most appropriate mathematical form of the scaling laws to model the available databases without the restriction of their having to be power laws. In a completely new development, this technique is combined with the concept of geodesic distance on Gaussian manifolds so as to take into account the error bars in the measurements and provide more reliable models. Robust scaling laws, including radiated fractions as regressor, have been found; they are not in power-law form, and are significantly better than the traditional scalings. These scaling laws, including radiated fractions, extrapolate quite differently to ITER, and therefore they require serious consideration. On the other hand, given the limitations of the existing databases, dedicated experimental investigations will have to be carried out to fully understand the impact of radiated fractions on the confinement in metallic machines and in the next generation of devices.

  17. PSA response to cabazitaxel is associated with improved progression-free survival in metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer: the non-interventional QoLiTime study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hammerer, Peter; Al-Batran, Salah-Eddin; Windemuth-Kieselbach, Christine; Keller, Martin; Hofheinz, Ralf-Dieter

    2018-03-01

    To evaluate the association between prostate-specific antigen (PSA) response and progression-free and overall survival in men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC) treated with cabazitaxel. Men with mCRPC receiving cabazitaxel (25 mg/m 2 , every 3 weeks) plus oral prednis(ol)one (10 mg/day) were enrolled in the non-interventional, prospective QoLiTime study. Main outcome measures were progression-free survival and overall survival, in all patients and in those who showed a ≥ 50 or a ≥ 30% decrease in PSA relative to baseline after four cycles of cabazitaxel, as well as quality-of-life parameters. Of the 527 men (median age 72 years), 266 received ≥ 4 cycles of cabazitaxel and had PSA response data. After four cycles, 34.6% of men achieved a PSA decrease ≥ 50% and 49.6% a decrease ≥ 30%. Median progression-free survival was 7.7 (95% CI 6.2, 9.5) months, and overall survival was 19.5 (95% CI 16.0, 30.9) months, corresponding to 1-year event rates of 39.4 and 78.8%, respectively. Median progression-free survival was longer in PSA responders versus non-responders (15.7 vs 5.5 months at 50% cut-off; 15.7 vs 5.3 months for 30% cut-off; both P PSA response after four cycles of cabazitaxel is associated with improved progression-free survival in men with mCRPC treated with cabazitaxel plus prednis(ol)one.

  18. Earth History databases and visualization - the TimeScale Creator system

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogg, James; Lugowski, Adam; Gradstein, Felix

    2010-05-01

    The "TimeScale Creator" team (www.tscreator.org) and the Subcommission on Stratigraphic Information (stratigraphy.science.purdue.edu) of the International Commission on Stratigraphy (www.stratigraphy.org) has worked with numerous geoscientists and geological surveys to prepare reference datasets for global and regional stratigraphy. All events are currently calibrated to Geologic Time Scale 2004 (Gradstein et al., 2004, Cambridge Univ. Press) and Concise Geologic Time Scale (Ogg et al., 2008, Cambridge Univ. Press); but the array of intercalibrations enable dynamic adjustment to future numerical age scales and interpolation methods. The main "global" database contains over 25,000 events/zones from paleontology, geomagnetics, sea-level and sequence stratigraphy, igneous provinces, bolide impacts, plus several stable isotope curves and image sets. Several regional datasets are provided in conjunction with geological surveys, with numerical ages interpolated using a similar flexible inter-calibration procedure. For example, a joint program with Geoscience Australia has compiled an extensive Australian regional biostratigraphy and a full array of basin lithologic columns with each formation linked to public lexicons of all Proterozoic through Phanerozoic basins - nearly 500 columns of over 9,000 data lines plus hot-curser links to oil-gas reference wells. Other datapacks include New Zealand biostratigraphy and basin transects (ca. 200 columns), Russian biostratigraphy, British Isles regional stratigraphy, Gulf of Mexico biostratigraphy and lithostratigraphy, high-resolution Neogene stable isotope curves and ice-core data, human cultural episodes, and Circum-Arctic stratigraphy sets. The growing library of datasets is designed for viewing and chart-making in the free "TimeScale Creator" JAVA package. This visualization system produces a screen display of the user-selected time-span and the selected columns of geologic time scale information. The user can change the

  19. When to Spray: a Time-Scale Calculus Approach to Controlling the Impact of West Nile Virus

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Diana Thomas

    2009-12-01

    Full Text Available West Nile Virus (WNV made its initial appearance in the New York City (NYC metropolitan area in 1999 and was implicated in cases of human encephalitis and the extensive mortality in crows (Corvus sp. and other avian species. Mosquitoes were found to be the primary vectors and NYC's current policy on control strategies involved an eradication program that depends on the synchronicity of the summer mosquito population's increases with the occurrence of cases in humans. The purpose of this paper is to investigate whether this is the most effective control strategy because past mathematical models assumed discrete behavior that is modeled by difference equations for a single summer season was most important to the virus's life cycle. However, both surviving mosquito eggs and surviving migratory birds incubate the virus during the winter, leading to a continuation of infections in the following warmer spring and summer when the birds return and the eggs hatch. Additionally, the virulence of WNV has been observed to fluctuate with changes in temperature toward warmer conditions. Models are required that account for these multi-seasonal dynamics and time-scale calculus is a newly developed method for resolving the behavior of systems that exhibit both discrete and continuous behavior. We found that, although the static states of the new temperature delay model are no different from older models, simulations indicate that the rate of the infection is affected by avian recovery at a lower temperature threshold. Consequently, eradication strategies should consider that controlling mosquitoes during the fall when colder temperatures occur would cause a fast and efficient drop to a disease-free state. This could prove rather more effective than mosquito control in the warmer months.

  20. Does mycorrhizal inoculation benefit plant survival, plant development and small-scale soil fixation? Results from a perennial eco-engineering field experiment in the Swiss Alps.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bast, Alexander; Grimm, Maria; Graf, Frank; Baumhauer, Roland; Gärtner, Holger

    2015-04-01

    In mountain environments superficial slope failures on coarse grained, vegetation-free slopes are common processes and entail a certain risk for humans and socio-economic structures. Eco-engineering measures can be applied to mitigate slope instabilities. In this regard, limited plant survival and growth can be supported by mycorrhizal inoculation, which was successfully tested in laboratory studies. However, related studies on a field scale are lacking. Furthermore, mycorrhizae are known to enhance soil aggregation, which is linked to soil physics such as shear strength, and hence it is a useful indicator for near-surface soil/slope stability. The overall objective of our contribution was to test whether mycorrhizal inoculation can be used to promote eco-engineering measures in steep alpine environments based on a five-year field experiment. We hypothesized that mycorrhizal inoculation (i) enhances soil aggregation, (ii) stimulate plant survival and fine root development, (iii) effects plant performance, (iv) the stimulated root development in turn influences aggregate stability, and (v) that climatic variations play a major role in fine-root development. We established mycorrhizal and non-mycorrhizal treated eco-engineered research plots (hedge layers mainly consisting of Alnus spp. and Salix spp.) on a field experimental scale. The experimental site is in the eastern Swiss Alps at an erosion-prone slope where many environmental conditions can be seen as homogeneous. Soil aggregation, fine root development and plant survival was quantified at the end of four growing seasons (2010, '11, '12, '14). Additionally, growth properties of Alnus spp. and Salix spp. were measured and their biomass estimated. Meteorological conditions, soil temperature and soil water content were recorded. (i) The introduced eco-engineering measures enhanced aggregate stability significantly. In contrast to published greenhouse and laboratory studies, mycorrhizal inoculation delayed soil

  1. Optimal dynamic voltage scaling for wireless sensor nodes with real-time constraints

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cassandras, Christos G.; Zhuang, Shixin

    2005-11-01

    Sensors are increasingly embedded in manufacturing systems and wirelessly networked to monitor and manage operations ranging from process and inventory control to tracking equipment and even post-manufacturing product monitoring. In building such sensor networks, a critical issue is the limited and hard to replenish energy in the devices involved. Dynamic voltage scaling is a technique that controls the operating voltage of a processor to provide desired performance while conserving energy and prolonging the overall network's lifetime. We consider such power-limited devices processing time-critical tasks which are non-preemptive, aperiodic and have uncertain arrival times. We treat voltage scaling as a dynamic optimization problem whose objective is to minimize energy consumption subject to hard or soft real-time execution constraints. In the case of hard constraints, we build on prior work (which engages a voltage scaling controller at task completion times) by developing an intra-task controller that acts at all arrival times of incoming tasks. We show that this optimization problem can be decomposed into two simpler ones whose solution leads to an algorithm that does not actually require solving any nonlinear programming problems. In the case of soft constraints, this decomposition must be partly relaxed, but it still leads to a scalable (linear in the number of tasks) algorithm. Simulation results are provided to illustrate performance improvements in systems with intra-task controllers compared to uncontrolled systems or those using inter-task control.

  2. Flow characteristics of a pilot-scale high temperature, short time pasteurizer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomasula, P M; Kozempel, M F

    2004-09-01

    In this study, we present a method for determining the fastest moving particle (FMP) and residence time distribution (RTD) in a pilot-scale high temperature, short time (HTST) pasteurizer to ensure that laboratory or pilot-scale HTST apparatus meets the Pasteurized Milk Ordinance standards for pasteurization of milk and can be used for obtaining thermal inactivation data. The overall dimensions of the plate in the pasteurizer were 75 x 115 mm, with a thickness of 0.5 mm and effective diameter of 3.0 mm. The pasteurizer was equipped with nominal 21.5- and 52.2-s hold tubes, and flow capacity was variable from 0 to 20 L/h. Tracer studies were used to determine FMP times and RTD data to establish flow characteristics. Using brine milk as tracer, the FMP time for the short holding section was 18.6 s and for the long holding section was 36 s at 72 degrees C, compared with the nominal times of 21.5 and 52.2 s, respectively. The RTD study indicates that the short hold section was 45% back mixed and 55% plug flow for whole milk at 72 degrees C. The long hold section was 91% plug and 9% back mixed for whole milk at 72 degrees C. This study demonstrates that continuous laboratory and pilot-scale pasteurizers may be used to study inactivation of microorganisms only if the flow conditions in the holding tube are established for comparison with commercial HTST systems.

  3. Low-power operation using self-timed circuits and adaptive scaling of the supply voltage

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nielsen, Lars Skovby; Niessen, C.; Sparsø, Jens

    1994-01-01

    Recent research has demonstrated that for certain types of applications like sampled audio systems, self-timed circuits can achieve very low power consumption, because unused circuit parts automatically turn into a stand-by mode. Additional savings may be obtained by combining the self......-timed circuits with a mechanism that adaptively adjusts the supply voltage to the smallest possible, while maintaining the performance requirements. This paper describes such a mechanism, analyzes the possible power savings, and presents a demonstrator chip that has been fabricated and tested. The idea...... of voltage scaling has been used previously in synchronous circuits, and the contributions of the present paper are: 1) the combination of supply scaling and self-timed circuitry which has some unique advantages, and 2) the thorough analysis of the power savings that are possible using this technique.>...

  4. Periodic Solution of Second-Order Hamiltonian Systems with a Change Sign Potential on Time Scales

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    You-Hui Su

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the second-order Hamiltonian system on time scales 𝕋 of the form uΔΔ(ρ(t+μb(t|u(t|μ−2u(t+∇¯H(t,u(t=0, Δ-a.e. t∈[0,T]𝕋 , u(0−u(T=uΔ(ρ(0−uΔ(ρ(T=0, where 0,T∈𝕋. By using the minimax methods in critical theory, an existence theorem of periodic solution for the above system is established. As an application, an example is given to illustrate the result. This is probably the first time the existence of periodic solutions for second-order Hamiltonian system on time scales has been studied by critical theory.

  5. Measuring parent time scarcity and fatigue as barriers to meal planning and preparation: quantitative scale development.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Storfer-Isser, Amy; Musher-Eizenman, Dara

    2013-03-01

    To examine the psychometric properties of 9 quantitative items that assess time scarcity and fatigue as parent barriers to planning and preparing meals for their children. A convenience sample of 342 parents of children aged 2-6 years completed a 20-minute online survey. Exploratory factor analysis was used to examine the factor structure and create summary scales. Internal consistency reliability and measures of construct and concurrent validity were assessed. Two scales were created based on the factor analysis: time and energy for meals and meal planning. Preliminary evidence suggests that both scales are reliable and valid. The time and energy for meals and meal planning scales can be completed quickly by busy and tired parents. As many children do not eat nutritious diets, a better understanding of the barriers that parents face is critical and may help inform interventions tailored to the needs of tired, busy parents. Copyright © 2013 Society for Nutrition Education and Behavior. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Estimation of total genetic effects for survival time in crossbred laying hens showing cannibalism, using pedigree or genomic information

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brinker, T.; Raymond, B.; Bijma, P.; Vereijken, A.; Ellen, E.D.

    2017-01-01

    Mortality of laying hens due to cannibalism is a major problem in the egg-laying industry. Survival depends on two genetic effects: the direct genetic effect of the individual itself (DGE) and the indirect genetic effects of its group mates (IGE). For hens housed in sire-family groups, DGE and

  7. Effect of agitation time on nutrient distribution in full-scale CSTR biogas digesters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kress, Philipp; Nägele, Hans-Joachim; Oechsner, Hans; Ruile, Stephan

    2018-01-01

    The aim of this work was to study the impact of reduced mixing time in a full-scale CSTR biogas reactor from 10 to 5 and to 2min in half an hour on the distribution of DM, acetic acid and FOS/TAC as a measure to cut electricity consumption. The parameters in the digestate were unevenly distributed with the highest concentration measured at the point of feeding. By reducing mixing time, the FOS/TAC value increases by 16.6%. A reduced mixing time of 2min lead to an accumulation of 15% biogas in the digestate. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Survivability of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) in bovine plasma submitted to spray drying processing and held at different time by temperature storage conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pujols, Joan; Segalés, Joaquim

    2014-12-05

    Bovine plasma was inoculated with porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV) at an average final titer of 4.2 log10 TCID50/mL to determine the effect of spray drying on viral inactivation. Using a laboratory scale drier, inoculated plasma was spray dried at 200 °C inlet temperature and either 70 or 80 °C throughout substance. Both liquid and dried samples were subjected to three passages on VERO cell monolayers to determine PEDV infectivity. Results indicated liquid samples contained infective virus, but none of the spray dried samples were infectious. Also, survivability of PEDV inoculated on spray dried bovine plasma (SDBP) and stored at 4, 12 or 22 °C was determined for 7, 14 and 21 days. Commercial SDBP powder was inoculated with PEDV to an average final titer of 2.8 log10 TCID50/g. Five samples per time and temperature conditions were subjected to three passages on VERO cell monolayers to determine PEDV infectivity. The virus was non-infectious for all samples stored at 22 °C at 7, 14 and 21 days. PEDV was infective in 1 out of 5 samples stored at 12 °C at 7 days, but none of the samples stored for 14 and 21 days were infectious in cell culture. For samples stored at 4 °C, 4 out of 5 samples were infectious at 7 days, 1 out of 5 samples were infectious at 14 days, but none were infectious at 21 days. In summary, PEDV was not infectious on cell culture within 7 days when stored at room temperature and within 21 days when stored at refrigerated temperature. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  9. Modeling and Validating Time, Buffering, and Utilization of a Large-Scale, Real-Time Data Acquisition System

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)756497; The ATLAS collaboration; Garcia Garcia, Pedro Javier; Vandelli, Wainer; Froening, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Data acquisition systems for large-scale high-energy physics experiments have to handle hundreds of gigabytes per second of data, and are typically realized as specialized data centers that connect a very large number of front-end electronics devices to an event detection and storage system. The design of such systems is often based on many assumptions, small-scale experiments and a substantial amount of over-provisioning. In this work, we introduce a discrete event-based simulation tool that models the data flow of the current ATLAS data acquisition system, with the main goal to be accurate with regard to the main operational characteristics. We measure buffer occupancy counting the number of elements in buffers, resource utilization measuring output bandwidth and counting the number of active processing units, and their time evolution by comparing data over many consecutive and small periods of time. We perform studies on the error of simulation when comparing the results to a large amount of real-world ope...

  10. Modeling and Validating Time, Buffering, and Utilization of a Large-Scale, Real-Time Data Acquisition System

    CERN Document Server

    AUTHOR|(SzGeCERN)756497; The ATLAS collaboration; Garcia Garcia, Pedro Javier; Vandelli, Wainer; Froening, Holger

    2017-01-01

    Data acquisition systems for large-scale high-energy physics experiments have to handle hundreds of gigabytes per second of data, and are typically implemented as specialized data centers that connect a very large number of front-end electronics devices to an event detection and storage system. The design of such systems is often based on many assumptions, small-scale experiments and a substantial amount of over-provisioning. In this paper, we introduce a discrete event-based simulation tool that models the dataflow of the current ATLAS data acquisition system, with the main goal to be accurate with regard to the main operational characteristics. We measure buffer occupancy counting the number of elements in buffers; resource utilization measuring output bandwidth and counting the number of active processing units, and their time evolution by comparing data over many consecutive and small periods of time. We perform studies on the error in simulation when comparing the results to a large amount of real-world ...

  11. Time-of-Day Dependent Neuronal Injury After Ischemic Stroke: Implication of Circadian Clock Transcriptional Factor Bmal1 and Survival Kinase AKT.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beker, Mustafa Caglar; Caglayan, Berrak; Yalcin, Esra; Caglayan, Ahmet Burak; Turkseven, Seyma; Gurel, Busra; Kelestemur, Taha; Sertel, Elif; Sahin, Zafer; Kutlu, Selim; Kilic, Ulkan; Baykal, Ahmet Tarik; Kilic, Ertugrul

    2018-03-01

    Occurrence of stroke cases displays a time-of-day variation in human. However, the mechanism linking circadian rhythm to the internal response mechanisms against pathophysiological events after ischemic stroke remained largely unknown. To this end, temporal changes in the susceptibility to ischemia/reperfusion (I/R) injury were investigated in mice in which the ischemic stroke induced at four different Zeitgeber time points with 6-h intervals (ZT0, ZT6, ZT12, and ZT18). Besides infarct volume and brain swelling, neuronal survival, apoptosis, ischemia, and circadian rhythm related proteins were examined using immunohistochemistry, Western blot, planar surface immune assay, and liquid chromatography-mass spectrometry tools. Here, we present evidence that midnight (ZT18; 24:00) I/R injury in mice resulted in significantly improved infarct volume, brain swelling, neurological deficit score, neuronal survival, and decreased apoptotic cell death compared with ischemia induced at other time points, which were associated with increased expressions of circadian proteins Bmal1, PerI, and Clock proteins and survival kinases AKT and Erk-1/2. Moreover, ribosomal protein S6, mTOR, and Bad were also significantly increased, while the levels of PRAS40, negative regulator of AKT and mTOR, and phosphorylated p53 were decreased at this time point compared to ZT0 (06:00). Furthermore, detailed proteomic analysis revealed significantly decreased CSKP, HBB-1/2, and HBA levels, while increased GNAZ, NEGR1, IMPCT, and PDE1B at midnight as compared with early morning. Our results indicate that nighttime I/R injury results in less severe neuronal damage, with increased neuronal survival, increased levels of survival kinases and circadian clock proteins, and also alters the circadian-related proteins.

  12. Time delay effects on large-scale MR damper based semi-active control strategies

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cha, Y-J; Agrawal, A K; Dyke, S J

    2013-01-01

    This paper presents a detailed investigation on the robustness of large-scale 200 kN MR damper based semi-active control strategies in the presence of time delays in the control system. Although the effects of time delay on stability and performance degradation of an actively controlled system have been investigated extensively by many researchers, degradation in the performance of semi-active systems due to time delay has yet to be investigated. Since semi-active systems are inherently stable, instability problems due to time delay are unlikely to arise. This paper investigates the effects of time delay on the performance of a building with a large-scale MR damper, using numerical simulations of near- and far-field earthquakes. The MR damper is considered to be controlled by four different semi-active control algorithms, namely (i) clipped-optimal control (COC), (ii) decentralized output feedback polynomial control (DOFPC), (iii) Lyapunov control, and (iv) simple-passive control (SPC). It is observed that all controllers except for the COC are significantly robust with respect to time delay. On the other hand, the clipped-optimal controller should be integrated with a compensator to improve the performance in the presence of time delay. (paper)

  13. Correcting Spatial Variance of RCM for GEO SAR Imaging Based on Time-Frequency Scaling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Ze; Lin, Peng; Xiao, Peng; Kang, Lihong; Li, Chunsheng

    2016-01-01

    Compared with low-Earth orbit synthetic aperture radar (SAR), a geosynchronous (GEO) SAR can have a shorter revisit period and vaster coverage. However, relative motion between this SAR and targets is more complicated, which makes range cell migration (RCM) spatially variant along both range and azimuth. As a result, efficient and precise imaging becomes difficult. This paper analyzes and models spatial variance for GEO SAR in the time and frequency domains. A novel algorithm for GEO SAR imaging with a resolution of 2 m in both the ground cross-range and range directions is proposed, which is composed of five steps. The first is to eliminate linear azimuth variance through the first azimuth time scaling. The second is to achieve RCM correction and range compression. The third is to correct residual azimuth variance by the second azimuth time-frequency scaling. The fourth and final steps are to accomplish azimuth focusing and correct geometric distortion. The most important innovation of this algorithm is implementation of the time-frequency scaling to correct high-order azimuth variance. As demonstrated by simulation results, this algorithm can accomplish GEO SAR imaging with good and uniform imaging quality over the entire swath. PMID:27428974

  14. Modeling and simulation of nuclear fuel in scenarios with long time scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Espinosa, Carlos E.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J., E-mail: eduardo.espinosa@ufrgs.br, E-mail: bardo.bodmann@ufrgs.br [Universidade Federal do Rio Grande do Sul (DENUC/PROMEC/UFRGS), Porto Alegre, RS (Brazil). Departamento de Engenharia Nuclear. Programa de Pos Graduacao em Engenharia Mecanica

    2015-07-01

    Nuclear reactors play a key role in defining the energy matrix. A study by the Fraunhofer Society shows in different time scales for long periods of time the distribution of energy sources. Regardless of scale, the use of nuclear energy is practically constant. In these scenarios, the nuclear fuel behavior over time is of interest. For kinetics of long-term scales, changing the chemical composition of fuel is significant. Thus, it is appropriate to consider fission products called neutron poisons. Such products are of interest in the nuclear reactor, since they become parasitic neutron absorbers and result in long thermal heat sources. The objective of this work is to solve the kinetics system coupled to neutron poison products. To solve this system, we use similar ideas to the method of Adomian decomposition. Initially, one separates the system of equations as the sum of a linear part and a non-linear part in order to solve a recursive system. The nonlinearity is treated as Adomian polynomial. We present numerical results of the effects of changing the power of a reactor, scenarios such as start-up and shut-down. For these results we consider time dependent reactivity, such as linear reactivity, quadratic polynomial and oscillatory. With these results one can simulate the chemical composition of the fuel due to the reuse of the spent fuel in subsequent cycles. (author)

  15. Modeling Climate Responses to Spectral Solar Forcing on Centennial and Decadal Time Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wen, G.; Cahalan, R.; Rind, D.; Jonas, J.; Pilewskie, P.; Harder, J.

    2012-01-01

    We report a series of experiments to explore clima responses to two types of solar spectral forcing on decadal and centennial time scales - one based on prior reconstructions, and another implied by recent observations from the SORCE (Solar Radiation and Climate Experiment) SIM (Spectral 1rradiance Monitor). We apply these forcings to the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) Global/Middle Atmosphere Model (GCMAM). that couples atmosphere with ocean, and has a model top near the mesopause, allowing us to examine the full response to the two solar forcing scenarios. We show different climate responses to the two solar forCing scenarios on decadal time scales and also trends on centennial time scales. Differences between solar maximum and solar minimum conditions are highlighted, including impacts of the time lagged reSponse of the lower atmosphere and ocean. This contrasts with studies that assume separate equilibrium conditions at solar maximum and minimum. We discuss model feedback mechanisms involved in the solar forced climate variations.

  16. Atomic and molecular dynamics triggered by ultrashort light pulses on the atto- to picosecond time scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pabst, Stefan

    2013-04-01

    Time-resolved investigations of ultrafast electronic and molecular dynamics were not possible until recently. The typical time scale of these processes is in the picosecond to attosecond realm. The tremendous technological progress in recent years made it possible to generate ultrashort pulses, which can be used to trigger, to watch, and to control atomic and molecular motion. This tutorial focuses on experimental and theoretical advances which are used to study the dynamics of electrons and molecules in the presence of ultrashort pulses. In the first part, the rotational dynamics of molecules, which happens on picosecond and femtosecond time scales, is reviewed. Well-aligned molecules are particularly suitable for angle-dependent investigations like x-ray diffraction or strong-field ionization experiments. In the second part, the ionization dynamics of atoms is studied. The characteristic time scale lies, here, in the attosecond to few-femtosecond regime. Although a one-particle picture has been successfully applied to many processes, many-body effects do constantly occur. After a broad overview of the main mechanisms and the most common tools in attosecond physics, examples of many-body dynamics in the attosecond world (e.g., in high-harmonic generation and attosecond transient absorption spectroscopy) are discussed.

  17. Modeling and simulation of nuclear fuel in scenarios with long time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Espinosa, Carlos E.; Bodmann, Bardo E.J.

    2015-01-01

    Nuclear reactors play a key role in defining the energy matrix. A study by the Fraunhofer Society shows in different time scales for long periods of time the distribution of energy sources. Regardless of scale, the use of nuclear energy is practically constant. In these scenarios, the nuclear fuel behavior over time is of interest. For kinetics of long-term scales, changing the chemical composition of fuel is significant. Thus, it is appropriate to consider fission products called neutron poisons. Such products are of interest in the nuclear reactor, since they become parasitic neutron absorbers and result in long thermal heat sources. The objective of this work is to solve the kinetics system coupled to neutron poison products. To solve this system, we use similar ideas to the method of Adomian decomposition. Initially, one separates the system of equations as the sum of a linear part and a non-linear part in order to solve a recursive system. The nonlinearity is treated as Adomian polynomial. We present numerical results of the effects of changing the power of a reactor, scenarios such as start-up and shut-down. For these results we consider time dependent reactivity, such as linear reactivity, quadratic polynomial and oscillatory. With these results one can simulate the chemical composition of the fuel due to the reuse of the spent fuel in subsequent cycles. (author)

  18. Scale size and life time of energy conversion regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Hamrin

    2009-11-01

    Full Text Available In this article, and in a companion paper by Hamrin et al. (2009 [Occurrence and location of concentrated load and generator regions observed by Cluster in the plasma sheet], we investigate localized energy conversion regions (ECRs in Earth's plasma sheet. From more than 80 Cluster plasma sheet crossings (660 h data at the altitude of about 15–20 RE in the summer and fall of 2001, we have identified 116 Concentrated Load Regions (CLRs and 35 Concentrated Generator Regions (CGRs. By examining variations in the power density, E·J, where E is the electric field and J is the current density obtained by Cluster, we have estimated typical values of the scale size and life time of the CLRs and the CGRs. We find that a majority of the observed ECRs are rather stationary in space, but varying in time. Assuming that the ECRs are cylindrically shaped and equal in size, we conclude that the typical scale size of the ECRs is 2 RE≲ΔSECR≲5 RE. The ECRs hence occupy a significant portion of the mid altitude plasma sheet. Moreover, the CLRs appear to be somewhat larger than the CGRs. The life time of the ECRs are of the order of 1–10 min, consistent with the large scale magnetotail MHD simulations of Birn and Hesse (2005. The life time of the CGRs is somewhat shorter than for the CLRs. On time scales of 1–10 min, we believe that ECRs rise and vanish in significant regions of the plasma sheet, possibly oscillating between load and generator character. It is probable that at least some of the observed ECRs oscillate energy back and forth in the plasma sheet instead of channeling it to the ionosphere.

  19. On the time-scales of magmatism at island-arc volcanoes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, S P

    2002-12-15

    Precise information on time-scales and rates of change is fundamental to an understanding of natural processes and the development of quantitative physical models in the Earth sciences. U-series isotope studies are revolutionizing this field by providing time information in the range 10(2)-10(4) years, which is similar to that of many modern Earth processes. I review how the application of U-series isotopes has been used to constrain the time-scales of magma formation, ascent and storage beneath island-arc volcanoes. Different elements are distilled-off the subducting plate at different times and in different places. Contributions from subducted sediments to island-arc lava sources appear to occur some 350 kyr to 4 Myr prior to eruption. Fluid release from the subducting oceanic crust into the mantle wedge may be a multi-stage process and occurs over a period ranging from a few hundred kyr to less than one kyr prior to eruption. This implies that dehydration commences prior to the initiation of partial melting within the mantle wedge, which is consistent with recent evidence that the onset of melting is controlled by an isotherm and thus the thermal structure within the wedge. U-Pa disequilibria appear to require a component of decompression melting, possibly due to the development of gravitational instabilities. The preservation of large (226)Ra disequilibria permits only a short period of time between fluid addition and eruption. This requires rapid melt segregation, magma ascent by channelled flow and minimal residence time within the lithosphere. The evolution from basalt to basaltic andesite probably occurs rapidly during ascent or in magma reservoirs inferred from some geophysical data to lie within the lithospheric mantle. The flux across the Moho is broadly andesitic, and some magmas subsequently stall in more shallow crustal-level magma chambers, where they evolve to more differentiated compositions on time-scales of a few thousand years or less.

  20. REAL-TIME VIDEO SCALING BASED ON CONVOLUTION NEURAL NETWORK ARCHITECTURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S Safinaz

    2017-08-01

    Full Text Available In recent years, video super resolution techniques becomes mandatory requirements to get high resolution videos. Many super resolution techniques researched but still video super resolution or scaling is a vital challenge. In this paper, we have presented a real-time video scaling based on convolution neural network architecture to eliminate the blurriness in the images and video frames and to provide better reconstruction quality while scaling of large datasets from lower resolution frames to high resolution frames. We compare our outcomes with multiple exiting algorithms. Our extensive results of proposed technique RemCNN (Reconstruction error minimization Convolution Neural Network shows that our model outperforms the existing technologies such as bicubic, bilinear, MCResNet and provide better reconstructed motioning images and video frames. The experimental results shows that our average PSNR result is 47.80474 considering upscale-2, 41.70209 for upscale-3 and 36.24503 for upscale-4 for Myanmar dataset which is very high in contrast to other existing techniques. This results proves our proposed model real-time video scaling based on convolution neural network architecture’s high efficiency and better performance.

  1. Large-scale machine learning and evaluation platform for real-time traffic surveillance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Eichel, Justin A.; Mishra, Akshaya; Miller, Nicholas; Jankovic, Nicholas; Thomas, Mohan A.; Abbott, Tyler; Swanson, Douglas; Keller, Joel

    2016-09-01

    In traffic engineering, vehicle detectors are trained on limited datasets, resulting in poor accuracy when deployed in real-world surveillance applications. Annotating large-scale high-quality datasets is challenging. Typically, these datasets have limited diversity; they do not reflect the real-world operating environment. There is a need for a large-scale, cloud-based positive and negative mining process and a large-scale learning and evaluation system for the application of automatic traffic measurements and classification. The proposed positive and negative mining process addresses the quality of crowd sourced ground truth data through machine learning review and human feedback mechanisms. The proposed learning and evaluation system uses a distributed cloud computing framework to handle data-scaling issues associated with large numbers of samples and a high-dimensional feature space. The system is trained using AdaBoost on 1,000,000 Haar-like features extracted from 70,000 annotated video frames. The trained real-time vehicle detector achieves an accuracy of at least 95% for 1/2 and about 78% for 19/20 of the time when tested on ˜7,500,000 video frames. At the end of 2016, the dataset is expected to have over 1 billion annotated video frames.

  2. Geometry and time scales of self-consistent orbits in a modified SU(2) model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jezek, D.M.; Hernandez, E.S.; Solari, H.G.

    1986-01-01

    We investigate the time-dependent Hartree-Fock flow pattern of a two-level many fermion system interacting via a two-body interaction which does not preserve the parity symmetry of standard SU(2) models. The geometrical features of the time-dependent Hartree-Fock energy surface are analyzed and a phase instability is clearly recognized. The time evolution of one-body observables along self-consistent and exact trajectories are examined together with the overlaps between both orbits. Typical time scales for the determinantal motion can be set and the validity of the time-dependent Hartree-Fock approach in the various regions of quasispin phase space is discussed

  3. Time-Sliced Perturbation Theory for Large Scale Structure I: General Formalism

    CERN Document Server

    Blas, Diego; Ivanov, Mikhail M.; Sibiryakov, Sergey

    2016-01-01

    We present a new analytic approach to describe large scale structure formation in the mildly non-linear regime. The central object of the method is the time-dependent probability distribution function generating correlators of the cosmological observables at a given moment of time. Expanding the distribution function around the Gaussian weight we formulate a perturbative technique to calculate non-linear corrections to cosmological correlators, similar to the diagrammatic expansion in a three-dimensional Euclidean quantum field theory, with time playing the role of an external parameter. For the physically relevant case of cold dark matter in an Einstein--de Sitter universe, the time evolution of the distribution function can be found exactly and is encapsulated by a time-dependent coupling constant controlling the perturbative expansion. We show that all building blocks of the expansion are free from spurious infrared enhanced contributions that plague the standard cosmological perturbation theory. This pave...

  4. Chaotic characteristic of electromagnetic radiation time series of coal or rock under different scales

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhen-Tang Liu; En-Lai Zhao; En-Yuan Wang; Jing Wang [China University of Mining and Technology, Xuzhou (China). School of Safety Engineering

    2009-02-15

    Based on chaos theory, the chaotic characteristics of electromagnetic radiation time series of coal or rock under different loads was studied. The results show that the correlation of electromagnetic radiation time series of small-scale coal or rock and coal mine converges to a stable saturation value, which shows that these electromagnetic radiation time series have chaos characteristics. When there is danger of coal seam burst, the value of the saturation correlation dimension D{sub 2} of the electromagnetic radiation time series is bigger and it changes greatly; when there is no danger, its value is smaller and changes smoothly. The change of saturation correlation of electromagnetic radiation time series can be used to forecast coal or rock dynamic disasters. 11 refs., 4 figs.

  5. A national survey of the impact of rapid scale-up of antiretroviral therapy on health-care workers in Malawi: effects on human resources and survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Makombe, Simon D; Jahn, Andreas; Tweya, Hannock; Chuka, Stuart; Yu, Joseph Kwong-Leung; Hochgesang, Mindy; Aberle-Grasse, John; Pasulani, Olesi; Schouten, Erik J; Kamoto, Kelita; Harries, Anthony D

    2007-11-01

    To assess the human resources impact of Malawis rapidly growing antiretroviral therapy (ART) programme and balance this against the survival benefit of health-care workers who have accessed ART themselves. We conducted a national cross-sectional survey of the human resource allocation in all public-sector health facilities providing ART in mid-2006. We also undertook a survival analysis of health-care workers who had accessed ART in public and private facilities by 30 June 2006, using data from the national ART monitoring and evaluation system. By 30 June 2006, 59 581 patients had accessed ART from 95 public and 28 private facilities. The public sites provided ART services on 2.4 days per week on average, requiring 7% of the clinician workforce, 3% of the nursing workforce and 24% of the ward clerk workforce available at the facilities. We identified 1024 health-care workers in the national ART-patient cohort (2% of all ART patients). The probabilities for survival on ART at 6 months, 12 months and 18 months were 85%, 81% and 78%, respectively. An estimated 250 health-care workers lives were saved 12 months after ART initiation. Their combined work-time of more than 1000 staff-days per week was equivalent to the human resources required to provide ART at the national level. A large number of ART patients in Malawi are managed by a small proportion of the health-care workforce. Many health-care workers have accessed ART with good treatment outcomes. Currently, staffing required for ART balances against health-care workers lives saved through treatment, although this may change in the future.

  6. Towards a High-resolution Time Scale for the Early Devonian

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dekkers, M. J.; da Silva, A. C.

    2017-12-01

    High-resolution time scales are crucial to understand Earth's history in detail. The construction of a robust geological time scale, however, inevitably becomes increasingly harder further back in time. Uncertainties associated with anchor radiometric ages increase in size, not speaking of the mere presence of suitable datable strata. However, durations of stages can be tightly constrained by making use of cyclic expressions in sediments, an approach that revolutionized the Cenozoic time scale. When precisely determined durations are stitched together, ultimately, a very precise time scale is the result. For the Mesozoic and Paleozoic an astronomical solution as a tuning target is not available but the dominant periods of eccentricity, obliquity and precession are reasonably well constrained for the entire Phanerozoic which enables their detection by means of spectral analysis. Eccentricity is time-invariant and is used as the prime building block. Here we focus on the Early Devonian, on its lowermost three stages: the Lochkovian, Pragian and Emsian. The uncertainties on the Devonian stage boundaries are currently in the order of several millions of years. The preservation of climatic cycles in diagenetically or even anchimetamorphically affected successions, however, is essential. The fit of spectral peak ratios with those calculated for orbital cycles, is classically used as a strong argument for a preserved climatic signal. Here we use primarily the low field magnetic susceptibility (MS) as proxy parameter, supported by gamma-ray spectrometry to test for consistency. Continuous Wavelet Transform, Evolutive Harmonic Analysis, Multitaper Method, and Average Spectral Misfit are used to reach an optimal astronomical interpretation. We report on classic Early Devonian sections from the Czech Republic: the Pozar-CS (Lochkovian and Pragian), Pod Barrandovem (Pragian and Lower Emsian), and Zlichov (Middle-Upper Emsian). Also a Middle-Upper Emsian section from the US

  7. The use of simple reparameterizations to improve the efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo estimation for multilevel models with applications to discrete time survival models.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Browne, William J; Steele, Fiona; Golalizadeh, Mousa; Green, Martin J

    2009-06-01

    We consider the application of Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) estimation methods to random-effects models and in particular the family of discrete time survival models. Survival models can be used in many situations in the medical and social sciences and we illustrate their use through two examples that differ in terms of both substantive area and data structure. A multilevel discrete time survival analysis involves expanding the data set so that the model can be cast as a standard multilevel binary response model. For such models it has been shown that MCMC methods have advantages in terms of reducing estimate bias. However, the data expansion results in very large data sets for which MCMC estimation is often slow and can produce chains that exhibit poor mixing. Any way of improving the mixing will result in both speeding up the methods and more confidence in the estimates that are produced. The MCMC methodological literature is full of alternative algorithms designed to improve mixing of chains and we describe three reparameterization techniques that are easy to implement in available software. We consider two examples of multilevel survival analysis: incidence of mastitis in dairy cattle and contraceptive use dynamics in Indonesia. For each application we show where the reparameterization techniques can be used and assess their performance.

  8. Impact of marital status at diagnosis on survival and its change over time between 1973 and 2012 in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma: a propensity score-matched analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Cheng; Liu, Xu; Chen, Yu-Pei; Mao, Yan-Ping; Guo, Rui; Zhou, Guan-Qun; Tang, Ling-Long; Lin, Ai-Hua; Sun, Ying; Ma, Jun

    2017-12-01

    The impact of marital status at diagnosis on survival outcomes and its change over time in patients with nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) are unclear. The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was used to identify patients diagnosed with NPC in the United States from 1973 to 2012. A primary comparison (married vs. unmarried) was implemented with 1:1 propensity score matching. Secondary comparisons were performed individually between three unmarried subgroups (single, separated/divorced, widowed) and married group. The effect of marital status on cause-specific survival (CSS) and overall survival (OS) were evaluated using univariate/multivariate analysis. Moreover, we investigated the change over time (1973-2012) in the effect of marital status on NPC survival. Married patients had better 5-year CSS/OS than unmarried patients (61.1% vs. 52.6%, P vs. 45.3%, P unmarried patients had significantly poorer CSS/OS than married patients (adjusted hazard ratio [aHR] = 1.35, P married was only detected in non-Hispanic white and Chinese American patients. Single, separated/divorced, and widowed patients had significantly poorer CSS/OS than married patients (aHR = 1.37 and 1.37; 1.46 and 1.42; 1.43 and 1.48, respectively; all P married status. Single and widowed patients are regarded as high-risk population. © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  9. Towards a More Biologically-meaningful Climate Characterization: Variability in Space and Time at Multiple Scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christianson, D. S.; Kaufman, C. G.; Kueppers, L. M.; Harte, J.

    2013-12-01

    fine-spatial scales (sub-meter to 10-meter) shows greater temperature variability with warmer mean temperatures. This is inconsistent with the inherent assumption made in current species distribution models that fine-scale variability is static, implying that current projections of future species ranges may be biased -- the direction and magnitude requiring further study. While we focus our findings on the cross-scaling characteristics of temporal and spatial variability, we also compare the mean-variance relationship between 1) experimental climate manipulations and observed conditions and 2) temporal versus spatial variance, i.e., variability in a time-series at one location vs. variability across a landscape at a single time. The former informs the rich debate concerning the ability to experimentally mimic a warmer future. The latter informs space-for-time study design and analyses, as well as species persistence via a combined spatiotemporal probability of suitable future habitat.

  10. Association Between Change in Body Mass Index, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale Scores, and Survival Among Persons With Parkinson Disease: Secondary Analysis of Longitudinal Data From NINDS Exploratory Trials in Parkinson Disease Long-term Study 1.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wills, Anne-Marie A; Pérez, Adriana; Wang, Jue; Su, Xiao; Morgan, John; Rajan, Suja S; Leehey, Maureen A; Pontone, Gregory M; Chou, Kelvin L; Umeh, Chizoba; Mari, Zoltan; Boyd, James

    2016-03-01

    Greater body mass index (BMI, calculated as weight in kilograms divided by height in meters squared) is associated with improved survival among persons with Huntington disease or amyotrophic lateral sclerosis. Weight loss is common among persons with Parkinson disease (PD) and is associated with worse quality of life. To explore the association between change in BMI, Unified Parkinson's Disease Rating Scale (UPDRS) motor and total scores, and survival among persons with PD and to test whether there is a positive association between BMI at randomization and survival. Secondary analysis (from May 27, 2014, to October 13, 2015) of longitudinal data (3-6 years) from 1673 participants who started the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke Exploratory Trials in PD Long-term Study-1 (NET-PD LS-1). This was a double-blind randomized placebo-controlled clinical trial of creatine monohydrate (10 g/d) that was performed at 45 sites throughout the United States and Canada. Participants with early (within 5 years of diagnosis) and treated (receiving dopaminergic therapy) PD were enrolled from March 2007 to May 2010 and followed up until September 2013. Change across time in motor UPDRS score, change across time in total UPDRS score, and time to death. Generalized linear mixed models were used to estimate the effect of BMI on the change in motor and total UPDRS scores after controlling for covariates. Survival was analyzed using Cox proportional hazards models of time to death. A participant's BMI was measured at randomization, and BMI trajectory groups were classified according to whether participants experienced weight loss ("decreasing BMI"), weight stability ("stable BMI"), or weight gain ("increasing BMI") during the study. Of the 1673 participants (mean [SD] age, 61.7 [9.6] years; 1074 [64.2%] were male), 158 (9.4%) experienced weight loss (decreasing BMI), whereas 233 (13.9%) experienced weight gain (increasing BMI). After adjusting for covariates, we

  11. Effect of timing and duration of a single chest compression pause on short-term survival following prolonged ventricular fibrillation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcott, Gregory P; Melnick, Sharon B; Walker, Robert G; Banville, Isabelle; Chapman, Fred W; Killingsworth, Cheryl R; Ideker, Raymond E

    2009-04-01

    Pauses during chest compressions are thought to have a detrimental effect on resuscitation outcome. The Guidelines 2005 have recently eliminated the post-defibrillation pause. Previous animal studies have shown that multiple pauses of increasing duration decrease resuscitation success. We investigated the effect of varying the characteristics of a single pause near defibrillation on resuscitation outcome. Part A: 48 swine were anesthetized, fibrillated for 7min and randomized. Chest compressions were initiated for 90s followed by defibrillation and then resumption of chest compressions. Four groups were studied-G2000: 40s pause beginning 20s before, and ending 20s after defibrillation, A1: a 20s pause just before defibrillation, A2: a 20s pause ending 30s prior to defibrillation, and group A3: a 10s pause ending 30s prior to defibrillation. Part B: 12 swine (Group B) were studied with a protocol identical to Part A but with no pause in chest compressions. Primary endpoint was survival to 4h. The survival rate was significantly higher for groups A1, A2, A3, and B (5/12, 7/12, 5/12, and 5/12 survived) than for the G2000 group (0/12, p<0.05). Survival did not differ significantly among groups A1, A2, A3, and B. These results suggest that the Guidelines 2005 recommendation to omit the post-shock pulse check and immediately resume chest compressions may be an important resuscitation protocol change. However, these results also suggest that clinical maneuvers further altering a single pre-shock chest compression pause provide no additional benefit.

  12. Effect of timing and duration of a single chest compression pause on short-term survival following prolonged ventricular fibrillation☆

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walcott, Gregory P.; Melnick, Sharon B.; Walker, Robert G.; Banville, Isabelle; Chapman, Fred W.; Killingsworth, Cheryl R.; Ideker, Raymond E.

    2014-01-01

    Background Pauses during chest compressions are thought to have a detrimental effect on resuscitation outcome. The Guidelines 2005 have recently eliminated the post-defibrillation pause. Previous animal studies have shown that multiple pauses of increasing duration decrease resuscitation success. We investigated the effect of varying the characteristics of a single pause near defibrillation on resuscitation outcome. Methods Part A: 48 swine were anesthetized, fibrillated for 7 min and randomized. Chest compressions were initiated for 90 s followed by defibrillation and then resumption of chest compressions. Four groups were studied—G2000: 40 s pause beginning 20 s before, and ending 20 s after defibrillation, A1: a 20 s pause just before defibrillation, A2: a 20 s pause ending 30 s prior to defibrillation, and group A3: a 10 s pause ending 30 s prior to defibrillation. Part B: 12 swine (Group B) were studied with a protocol identical to Part A but with no pause in chest compressions. Primary endpoint was survival to 4 h. Results The survival rate was significantly higher for groups A1, A2, A3, and B (5/12, 7/12, 5/12, and 5/12 survived) than for the G2000 group (0/12, p < 0.05). Survival did not differ significantly among groups A1, A2, A3, and B. Conclusions These results suggest that the Guidelines 2005 recommendation to omit the post-shock pulse check and immediately resume chest compressions may be an important resuscitation protocol change. However, these results also suggest that clinical maneuvers further altering a single pre-shock chest compression pause provide no additional benefit. PMID:19185411

  13. Fission time-scale in experiments and in multiple initiation model

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Karamian, S. A., E-mail: karamian@nrmail.jinr.ru [Joint Institute for Nuclear Research (Russian Federation)

    2011-12-15

    Rate of fission for highly-excited nuclei is affected by the viscose character of the systemmotion in deformation coordinates as was reported for very heavy nuclei with Z{sub C} > 90. The long time-scale of fission can be described in a model of 'fission by diffusion' that includes an assumption of the overdamped diabatic motion. The fission-to-spallation ratio at intermediate proton energy could be influenced by the viscosity, as well. Within a novel approach of the present work, the cross examination of the fission probability, time-scales, and pre-fission neutron multiplicities is resulted in the consistent interpretation of a whole set of the observables. Earlier, different aspects could be reproduced in partial simulations without careful coordination.

  14. Introducing English and German versions of the Adolescent Time Attitude Scale.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worrell, Frank C; Mello, Zena R; Buhl, Monika

    2013-08-01

    In this study, the authors report on the development of English and German versions of the Adolescent Time Attitude Scale (ATAS). The ATAS consists of six subscales assessing Past Positive, Past Negative, Present Positive, Present Negative, Future Positive, and Future Negative time attitudes. The authors describe the development of the scales and present data on the reliability and structural validity of ATAS scores in samples of American (N = 300) and German (N = 316) adolescents. Internal consistency estimates for scores on the English and German versions of the ATAS were in the .70 to .80 range. Confirmatory factor analyses indicated that a six-factor structure yielded the best fit for scores and that the scores were invariant across samples.

  15. Chaos anticontrol and synchronization of three time scales brushless DC motor system

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ge Zhengming; Cheng Juiwen; Chen Yensheng

    2004-01-01

    Chaos anticontrol of three time scale brushless dc motors and chaos synchronization of different order systems are studied. Nondimensional dynamic equations of three time scale brushless DC motor system are presented. Using numerical results, such as phase diagram, bifurcation diagram, and Lyapunov exponent, periodic and chaotic motions can be observed. By adding constant term, periodic square wave, the periodic triangle wave, the periodic sawtooth wave, and kx vertical bar x vertical bar term, to achieve anticontrol of chaotic or periodic systems, it is found that more chaotic phenomena of the system can be observed. Then, by coupled terms and linearization of error dynamics, we obtain the partial synchronization of two different order systems, i.e. brushless DC motor system and rate gyroscope system

  16. Ns-scaled time-gated fluorescence lifetime imaging for forensic document examination

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhong, Xin; Wang, Xinwei; Zhou, Yan

    2018-01-01

    A method of ns-scaled time-gated fluorescence lifetime imaging (TFLI) is proposed to distinguish different fluorescent substances in forensic document examination. Compared with Video Spectral Comparator (VSC) which can examine fluorescence intensity images only, TFLI can detect questioned documents like falsification or alteration. TFLI system can enhance weak signal by accumulation method. The two fluorescence intensity images of the interval delay time tg are acquired by ICCD and fitted into fluorescence lifetime image. The lifetimes of fluorescence substances are represented by different colors, which make it easy to detect the fluorescent substances and the sequence of handwritings. It proves that TFLI is a powerful tool for forensic document examination. Furthermore, the advantages of TFLI system are ns-scaled precision preservation and powerful capture capability.

  17. Modes of correlated angular motion in live cells across three distinct time scales

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harrison, Andrew W; Kenwright, David A; Woodman, Philip G; Allan, Victoria J; Waigh, Thomas A

    2013-01-01

    Particle tracking experiments with high speed digital microscopy yield the positions and trajectories of lipid droplets inside living cells. Angular correlation analysis shows that the lipid droplets have uncorrelated motion at short time scales (τ 10 ms, becomes persistent, indicating directed movement. The motion at all time scales is associated with the lipid droplets being tethered to and driven along the microtubule network. The point at which the angular correlation changes from anti-persistent to persistent motion corresponds to the cross over between sub-diffusive and super diffusive motion, as observed by mean square displacement analysis. Correct analysis of the angular correlations of the detector noise is found to be crucial in modelling the observed phenomena. (paper)

  18. Virtual water trade and time scales for loss of water sustainability: a comparative regional analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goswami, Prashant; Nishad, Shiv Narayan

    2015-03-20

    Assessment and policy design for sustainability in primary resources like arable land and water need to adopt long-term perspective; even small but persistent effects like net export of water may influence sustainability through irreversible losses. With growing consumption, this virtual water trade has become an important element in the water sustainability of a nation. We estimate and contrast the virtual (embedded) water trades of two populous nations, India and China, to present certain quantitative measures and time scales. Estimates show that export of embedded water alone can lead to loss of water sustainability. With the current rate of net export of water (embedded) in the end products, India is poised to lose its entire available water in less than 1000 years; much shorter time scales are implied in terms of water for production. The two cases contrast and exemplify sustainable and non-sustainable virtual water trade in long term perspective.

  19. Past and future changes in streamflow in the U.S. Midwest: Bridging across time scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Villarini, G.; Slater, L. J.; Salvi, K. A.

    2017-12-01

    Streamflows have increased notably across the U.S. Midwest over the past century, principally due to changes in precipitation and land use / land cover. Improving our understanding of the physical drivers that are responsible for the observed changes in discharge may enhance our capability of predicting and projecting these changes, and may have large implications for water resources management over this area. This study will highlight our efforts towards the statistical attribution of changes in discharge across the U.S. Midwest, with analyses performed at the seasonal scale from low to high flows. The main drivers of changing streamflows that we focus on are: urbanization, agricultural land cover, basin-averaged temperature, basin-averaged precipitation, and antecedent soil moisture. Building on the insights from this attribution, we will examine the potential predictability of streamflow across different time scales, with lead times ranging from seasonal to decadal, and discuss a potential path forward for engineering design for future conditions.

  20. Epstein-Barr virus ensures B cell survival by uniquely modulating apoptosis at early and late times after infection.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, Alexander M; Dai, Joanne; Bazot, Quentin; Patel, Luv; Nikitin, Pavel A; Djavadian, Reza; Winter, Peter S; Salinas, Cristina A; Barry, Ashley Perkins; Wood, Kris C; Johannsen, Eric C; Letai, Anthony; Allday, Martin J; Luftig, Micah A

    2017-04-20

    Latent Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) infection is causally linked to several human cancers. EBV expresses viral oncogenes that promote cell growth and inhibit the apoptotic response to uncontrolled proliferation. The EBV oncoprotein LMP1 constitutively activates NFκB and is critical for survival of EBV-immortalized B cells. However, during early infection EBV induces rapid B cell proliferation with low levels of LMP1 and little apoptosis. Therefore, we sought to define the mechanism of survival in the absence of LMP1/NFκB early after infection. We used BH3 profiling to query mitochondrial regulation of apoptosis and defined a transition from uninfected B cells (BCL-2) to early-infected (MCL-1/BCL-2) and immortalized cells (BFL-1). This dynamic change in B cell survival mechanisms is unique to virus-infected cells and relies on regulation of MCL-1 mitochondrial localization and BFL-1 transcription by the viral EBNA3A protein. This study defines a new role for EBNA3A in the suppression of apoptosis with implications for EBV lymphomagenesis.