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Sample records for survival curve based

  1. Trends in scale and shape of survival curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weon, Byung Mook; Je, Jung Ho

    2012-01-01

    The ageing of the population is an issue in wealthy countries worldwide because of increasing costs for health care and welfare. Survival curves taken from demographic life tables may help shed light on the hypotheses that humans are living longer and that human populations are growing older. We describe a methodology that enables us to obtain separate measurements of scale and shape variances in survival curves. Specifically, 'living longer' is associated with the scale variance of survival curves, whereas 'growing older' is associated with the shape variance. We show how the scale and shape of survival curves have changed over time during recent decades, based on period and cohort female life tables for selected wealthy countries. Our methodology will be useful for performing better tracking of ageing statistics and it is possible that this methodology can help identify the causes of current trends in human ageing.

  2. SCEW: a Microsoft Excel add-in for easy creation of survival curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khan, Haseeb Ahmad

    2006-07-01

    Survival curves are frequently used for reporting survival or mortality outcomes of experimental pharmacological/toxicological studies and of clinical trials. Microsoft Excel is a simple and widely used tool for creation of numerous types of graphic presentations however it is difficult to create step-wise survival curves in Excel. Considering the familiarity of clinicians and biomedical scientists with Excel, an algorithm survival curves in Excel worksheet (SCEW) has been developed for easy creation of survival curves directly in Excel worksheets. The algorithm has been integrated in the form of Excel add-in for easy installation and usage. The program is based on modification of frequency data for binary break-up using the spreadsheet formula functions whereas a macro subroutine automates the creation of survival curves. The advantages of this program are simple data input, minimal procedural steps and the creation of survival curves in the familiar confines of Excel.

  3. Survival curves for irradiated cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gibson, D.K.

    1975-01-01

    The subject of the lecture is the probability of survival of biological cells which have been subjected to ionising radiation. The basic mathematical theories of cell survival as a function of radiation dose are developed. A brief comparison with observed survival curves is made. (author)

  4. 51Cr - erythrocyte survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paiva Costa, J. de.

    1982-07-01

    Sixteen patients were studied, being fifteen patients in hemolytic state, and a normal individual as a witness. The aim was to obtain better techniques for the analysis of the erythrocytes, survival curves, according to the recommendations of the International Committee of Hematology. It was used the radiochromatic method as a tracer. Previously a revisional study of the International Literature was made in its aspects inherent to the work in execution, rendering possible to establish comparisons and clarify phonomena observed in cur investigation. Several parameters were considered in this study, hindering both the exponential and the linear curves. The analysis of the survival curves of the erythrocytes in the studied group, revealed that the elution factor did not present a homogeneous answer quantitatively to all, though, the result of the analysis of these curves have been established, through listed programs in the electronic calculator. (Author) [pt

  5. A dose-surviving fraction curve for mouse colonic mucosa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Tucker, S.L.; Thames, H.D. Jr.; Withers, H.R.; Mason, K.A.

    1983-01-01

    A dose-surviving fraction curve representing the response of the mouse colonic mucosa to single doses of 137 Cs gamma radiation was obtained from the results of a multifraction in vivo colony assay. Construction of the curve required an estimated of the average number of clonogens initially present per colonic crypt. The estimated clonogen count (88) was determined by a statistical method based on the use of doses per fraction common to different fractionation protocols. Parameters for the LQ and TC models of cell survival were obtained by weighted least-squares fits to the data. A comparison of the survival characteristics of cells from the mouse colonic and jejunal crypts suggested that the epithelium of the colon is less radiosensitive than that of the jejunum. (author)

  6. Repair models of cell survival and corresponding computer program for survival curve fitting

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shen Xun; Hu Yiwei

    1992-01-01

    Some basic concepts and formulations of two repair models of survival, the incomplete repair (IR) model and the lethal-potentially lethal (LPL) model, are introduced. An IBM-PC computer program for survival curve fitting with these models was developed and applied to fit the survivals of human melanoma cells HX118 irradiated at different dose rates. Comparison was made between the repair models and two non-repair models, the multitar get-single hit model and the linear-quadratic model, in the fitting and analysis of the survival-dose curves. It was shown that either IR model or LPL model can fit a set of survival curves of different dose rates with same parameters and provide information on the repair capacity of cells. These two mathematical models could be very useful in quantitative study on the radiosensitivity and repair capacity of cells

  7. Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guyot, Patricia; Ades, A E; Ouwens, Mario J N M; Welton, Nicky J

    2012-02-01

    The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs) on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios) with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

  8. Optimal fractionation for the radiotherapy of tumour cells possessing wide-shouldered survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wheldon, T.E.

    1979-01-01

    A recent publication (Zeitz, L., and McDonald, J.M., 1978, Br. J. Radiol., vol. 51, 637) has considered the use of in vitro survival curves in the evaluation of different treatment schedules. Several studies of oxygenated melanoma cell have demonstrated a wider than average shoulder width for the survival curves. It is possible that hypoxia reduces the width of this shoulder. Theoretical cell survival probabilities were calculated for each of the four treatment schedules considered by Zeitz and McDonald. The calculations were based on hypothetical survival curves for anoxic melanoma cells with the shoulder either fully retained or completely abolished. No allowance was made for either re-population or re-oxygenation. The advantage of small doses per fraction was demonstrated for both types of survival curve. Re-oxygenation during therapy could therefore mean that a non-uniform treatment schedule is the appropriate choice for this type of tumour. (U.K.)

  9. Enhanced secondary analysis of survival data: reconstructing the data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Guyot Patricia

    2012-02-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The results of Randomized Controlled Trials (RCTs on time-to-event outcomes that are usually reported are median time to events and Cox Hazard Ratio. These do not constitute the sufficient statistics required for meta-analysis or cost-effectiveness analysis, and their use in secondary analyses requires strong assumptions that may not have been adequately tested. In order to enhance the quality of secondary data analyses, we propose a method which derives from the published Kaplan Meier survival curves a close approximation to the original individual patient time-to-event data from which they were generated. Methods We develop an algorithm that maps from digitised curves back to KM data by finding numerical solutions to the inverted KM equations, using where available information on number of events and numbers at risk. The reproducibility and accuracy of survival probabilities, median survival times and hazard ratios based on reconstructed KM data was assessed by comparing published statistics (survival probabilities, medians and hazard ratios with statistics based on repeated reconstructions by multiple observers. Results The validation exercise established there was no material systematic error and that there was a high degree of reproducibility for all statistics. Accuracy was excellent for survival probabilities and medians, for hazard ratios reasonable accuracy can only be obtained if at least numbers at risk or total number of events are reported. Conclusion The algorithm is a reliable tool for meta-analysis and cost-effectiveness analyses of RCTs reporting time-to-event data. It is recommended that all RCTs should report information on numbers at risk and total number of events alongside KM curves.

  10. Statistical and biophysical aspects of survival curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kellerer, A.M.

    1980-01-01

    Statistic fluctuation in a series of consequently taken survival curves of asynchronous cells of a hamster of the V79 line during X-ray irradiation, are considered. In each of the experiments fluctuations are close to those expected on the basis of the Poisson distribution. The fluctuation of cell sensitivity in different experiments of one series can reach 10%. The normalization of each experiment in mean values permits to obtain the ''idealized'' survival curve. The survival logarithm in this curve is proportional to the absorbed dose and its square only at low radiation doses. Such proportionality in V lab 79 cells in the late S-phase is observed at all doses. Using the microdosimetric approach, the distance where the interaction of radiolysis products or subinjury takes place to make the dependence of injury on the dose non-linear, is determined. In the case of interaction distances of 10-100 nm, the linear component is shown to become comparable in value with the linear injury component at doses of the order of several hundred rad only in the case, when the interaction distance is close to micrometre [ru

  11. Individual survival curves comparing subjective and observed mortality risks.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bissonnette, Luc; Hurd, Michael D; Michaud, Pierre-Carl

    2017-12-01

    We compare individual survival curves constructed from objective (actual mortality) and elicited subjective information (probability of survival to a given target age). We develop a methodology to estimate jointly subjective and objective individual survival curves accounting for rounding on subjective reports of perceived survival. We make use of the long follow-up period in the Health and Retirement Study and the high quality of mortality data to estimate individual survival curves that feature both observed and unobserved heterogeneity. This allows us to compare objective and subjective estimates of remaining life expectancy for various groups and compare welfare effects of objective and subjective mortality risk using the life cycle model of consumption. We find that subjective and objective hazards are not the same. The median welfare loss from misperceptions of mortality risk when annuities are not available is 7% of current wealth at age 65 whereas more than 25% of respondents have losses larger than 60% of wealth. When annuities are available and exogenously given, the welfare loss is substantially lower. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  12. Meta-analysis of single-arm survival studies: a distribution-free approach for estimating summary survival curves with random effects.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Combescure, Christophe; Foucher, Yohann; Jackson, Daniel

    2014-07-10

    In epidemiologic studies and clinical trials with time-dependent outcome (for instance death or disease progression), survival curves are used to describe the risk of the event over time. In meta-analyses of studies reporting a survival curve, the most informative finding is a summary survival curve. In this paper, we propose a method to obtain a distribution-free summary survival curve by expanding the product-limit estimator of survival for aggregated survival data. The extension of DerSimonian and Laird's methodology for multiple outcomes is applied to account for the between-study heterogeneity. Statistics I(2)  and H(2) are used to quantify the impact of the heterogeneity in the published survival curves. A statistical test for between-strata comparison is proposed, with the aim to explore study-level factors potentially associated with survival. The performance of the proposed approach is evaluated in a simulation study. Our approach is also applied to synthesize the survival of untreated patients with hepatocellular carcinoma from aggregate data of 27 studies and synthesize the graft survival of kidney transplant recipients from individual data from six hospitals. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  13. A versatile test for equality of two survival functions based on weighted differences of Kaplan-Meier curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uno, Hajime; Tian, Lu; Claggett, Brian; Wei, L J

    2015-12-10

    With censored event time observations, the logrank test is the most popular tool for testing the equality of two underlying survival distributions. Although this test is asymptotically distribution free, it may not be powerful when the proportional hazards assumption is violated. Various other novel testing procedures have been proposed, which generally are derived by assuming a class of specific alternative hypotheses with respect to the hazard functions. The test considered by Pepe and Fleming (1989) is based on a linear combination of weighted differences of the two Kaplan-Meier curves over time and is a natural tool to assess the difference of two survival functions directly. In this article, we take a similar approach but choose weights that are proportional to the observed standardized difference of the estimated survival curves at each time point. The new proposal automatically makes weighting adjustments empirically. The new test statistic is aimed at a one-sided general alternative hypothesis and is distributed with a short right tail under the null hypothesis but with a heavy tail under the alternative. The results from extensive numerical studies demonstrate that the new procedure performs well under various general alternatives with a caution of a minor inflation of the type I error rate when the sample size is small or the number of observed events is small. The survival data from a recent cancer comparative study are utilized for illustrating the implementation of the process. Copyright © 2015 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  14. Evaluating methodological assumptions of a catch-curve survival estimation of unmarked precocial shorebird chickes

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGowan, Conor P.; Gardner, Beth

    2013-01-01

    Estimating productivity for precocial species can be difficult because young birds leave their nest within hours or days of hatching and detectability thereafter can be very low. Recently, a method for using a modified catch-curve to estimate precocial chick daily survival for age based count data was presented using Piping Plover (Charadrius melodus) data from the Missouri River. However, many of the assumptions of the catch-curve approach were not fully evaluated for precocial chicks. We developed a simulation model to mimic Piping Plovers, a fairly representative shorebird, and age-based count-data collection. Using the simulated data, we calculated daily survival estimates and compared them with the known daily survival rates from the simulation model. We conducted these comparisons under different sampling scenarios where the ecological and statistical assumptions had been violated. Overall, the daily survival estimates calculated from the simulated data corresponded well with true survival rates of the simulation. Violating the accurate aging and the independence assumptions did not result in biased daily survival estimates, whereas unequal detection for younger or older birds and violating the birth death equilibrium did result in estimator bias. Assuring that all ages are equally detectable and timing data collection to approximately meet the birth death equilibrium are key to the successful use of this method for precocial shorebirds.

  15. Interpretation of some morphological aspects of survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Delattre, Pierre.

    1975-01-01

    Proof of necessary relationships between some morphological aspects of survival curves and some characteristics of theoretical models offers obvious interest for the elaboration of these models, regarding their empirical value. The search for such relationships is all the more useful that specialized literature provides with numerous ambiguous or contradictory interpretations regarding such or such aspect of survival curves (shoulders, slope at the origin, asymptotic region, restoration curves, etc...). This is not a surprising situation as, in final outcome, all interpretation results from some theoretical presuppositions. To the extent that such presuppositions are note clearly explicited, there is no reason to presume that all investigators should have exactly the same ones. If this difficult situation is to be remedied, it is therefore indispensable to clearly explicit the underlying theoretical context corresponding to the various types of experiments that are fulfilled. This, of course, has to be done at a relatively general level so that a priori non-justified restrictive hypotheses are not introduced. If such hypotheses sometimes find their place in the elaboration of particular models, they must nevertheless be excluded at the level of a general theory whose essential purpose is to provide a framework for description and thought that is acceptable to all. Specific examples are given regarding the signification of shoulders, slopes at the origin, asymptotes, (either in continuous or fractionated irradiations), signs of concavities, shapes of restoration curves [fr

  16. Linear transform of the multi-target survival curve

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Watson, J V [Cambridge Univ. (UK). Dept. of Clinical Oncology and Radiotherapeutics

    1978-07-01

    A completely linear transform of the multi-target survival curve is presented. This enables all data, including those on the shoulder region of the curve, to be analysed. The necessity to make a subjective assessment about which data points to exclude for conventional methods of analysis is, therefore, removed. The analysis has also been adapted to include a 'Pike-Alper' method of assessing dose modification factors. For the data cited this predicts compatibility with the hypothesis of a true oxygen 'dose-modification' whereas the conventional Pike-Alper analysis does not.

  17. Factors determinating the shape of survival curves of Escherichia coli cells irradiated by ionizing radiation with different LET. The dependence of the shape of survival curve on LET

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kozubek, S.; Krasavin, E.A.; Fajsi, Ch.

    1984-01-01

    The dependence of the shape of bacterial sUrvival curve in the case of Escherichia coli Wild type, rec - and pol - mutants on linear energy transfer is considered. When increasing LET of the radiation the shouldered survival curves are transformed to exponential ones. In the case of sensitive mutants the transformation is observed for smaller values of LET. The dependence of cell sensitivity on LET calculated on the basis of Landau-Vavilov distribution is compared with earlier calculations. The comparison showed a good agreement between two methods of calculation for ions with 4 MeV per nucleon energy

  18. The gene dosage effect of the rad52 mutation on X-ray survival curves of tetraploid yeast strains

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ho, K.S.Y.

    1975-01-01

    The mutation rad52 in the yeast Saccharomyces cerevisiae confers sensitivity to X-rays. The gene dosage effect of this mutation on X-ray survival curves of tetraploid yeast strains is shown. With increasing number of rad52 alleles, both a decrease in the survival for a given dose and a decrease in the survival curve shoulder width are observed. The generation of such a family of survival curves using three different mathematical models is discussed

  19. Mathematical simulation of influence of irradiated cell reparative system saturation on cell survival. Communication 1. Simulation of survival curves in prokaryotes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Knyigavko, V.G.; Meshcheryakova, O.P.; Radzyishevs'ka, Je.B.

    2004-01-01

    Mathematical models of the processes of forming survival curves for prokaryotes which are based on the idea about the possibility of saturation of radiation lesion reparation systems of DNA of the irradiated cells at the dose increase were worked out. For the simplest of the discussed models the authors discuss the question about the methods of evaluation of the model parameters

  20. Relation of intracellular cyclic AMP to the shape of mammalian cell survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lehnert, S.

    1975-01-01

    Results of experiments with V79 cells growing in tissue culture indicate that the reproductive survival of cells following irradiation is influenced by the level of intracellular 3', 5'-cyclic adenosine monophosphate (cyclic AMP) at the time of irradiation. Cells containing high levels of cyclic AMP induced by treatments with drugs show a characteristic survival curve in which the extent of the shoulder is increased so that the survival after low doses is enhanced. The exponential slope or D 0 , however, is decreased so that at high doses the survival of cells containing high levels of cyclic AMP may be less than that of controls. Naturally occurring changes in radiosensitivity such as those observed as cells pass through the division cycle, may also be related to parallel changes in cyclic AMP concentration occurring during the cycle. Injection of mice with compounds producing elevated cyclic AMP prior to whole-body irradiation increases survival at seven days post-irradiation. The shape of the survival curve for intestinal stem cells in these mice differs from that of the control in having an increased extrapolation number; no change in D 0 is observed in this in vivo situation. (author)

  1. SU-E-T-429: Uncertainties of Cell Surviving Fractions Derived From Tumor-Volume Variation Curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chvetsov, A

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To evaluate uncertainties of cell surviving fraction reconstructed from tumor-volume variation curves during radiation therapy using sensitivity analysis based on linear perturbation theory. Methods: The time dependent tumor-volume functions V(t) have been calculated using a twolevel cell population model which is based on the separation of entire tumor cell population in two subpopulations: oxygenated viable and lethally damaged cells. The sensitivity function is defined as S(t)=[δV(t)/V(t)]/[δx/x] where δV(t)/V(t) is the time dependent relative variation of the volume V(t) and δx/x is the relative variation of the radiobiological parameter x. The sensitivity analysis was performed using direct perturbation method where the radiobiological parameter x was changed by a certain error and the tumor-volume was recalculated to evaluate the corresponding tumor-volume variation. Tumor volume variation curves and sensitivity functions have been computed for different values of cell surviving fractions from the practically important interval S 2 =0.1-0.7 using the two-level cell population model. Results: The sensitivity functions of tumor-volume to cell surviving fractions achieved a relatively large value of 2.7 for S 2 =0.7 and then approached zero as S 2 is approaching zero Assuming a systematic error of 3-4% we obtain that the relative error in S 2 is less that 20% in the range S2=0.4-0.7. This Resultis important because the large values of S 2 are associated with poor treatment outcome should be measured with relatively small uncertainties. For the very small values of S2<0.3, the relative error can be larger than 20%; however, the absolute error does not increase significantly. Conclusion: Tumor-volume curves measured during radiotherapy can be used for evaluation of cell surviving fractions usually observed in radiation therapy with conventional fractionation

  2. Implications of tissue target-cell survival-curve shape for values of split-dose recovery doses: late versus early effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Redpath, J.L.; Peel, D.M.; Hopewell, J.W.

    1984-01-01

    Recent data from this laboratory on split-dose recovery for early and late effects in pig skin are consistent with the linear-quadratic model for cell survival, and with relative cell survival-curve shapes for early- and late-effect target cells where the early-effect cells have an intially steeper and straighter survival-curve than the late-effect cells. (author)

  3. Exponential Decay Nonlinear Regression Analysis of Patient Survival Curves: Preliminary Assessment in Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stewart, David J.; Behrens, Carmen; Roth, Jack; Wistuba, Ignacio I.

    2010-01-01

    Background For processes that follow first order kinetics, exponential decay nonlinear regression analysis (EDNRA) may delineate curve characteristics and suggest processes affecting curve shape. We conducted a preliminary feasibility assessment of EDNRA of patient survival curves. Methods EDNRA was performed on Kaplan-Meier overall survival (OS) and time-to-relapse (TTR) curves for 323 patients with resected NSCLC and on OS and progression-free survival (PFS) curves from selected publications. Results and Conclusions In our resected patients, TTR curves were triphasic with a “cured” fraction of 60.7% (half-life [t1/2] >100,000 months), a rapidly-relapsing group (7.4%, t1/2=5.9 months) and a slowly-relapsing group (31.9%, t1/2=23.6 months). OS was uniphasic (t1/2=74.3 months), suggesting an impact of co-morbidities; hence, tumor molecular characteristics would more likely predict TTR than OS. Of 172 published curves analyzed, 72 (42%) were uniphasic, 92 (53%) were biphasic, 8 (5%) were triphasic. With first-line chemotherapy in advanced NSCLC, 87.5% of curves from 2-3 drug regimens were uniphasic vs only 20% of those with best supportive care or 1 drug (p<0.001). 54% of curves from 2-3 drug regimens had convex rapid-decay phases vs 0% with fewer agents (p<0.001). Curve convexities suggest that discontinuing chemotherapy after 3-6 cycles “synchronizes” patient progression and death. With postoperative adjuvant chemotherapy, the PFS rapid-decay phase accounted for a smaller proportion of the population than in controls (p=0.02) with no significant difference in rapid-decay t1/2, suggesting adjuvant chemotherapy may move a subpopulation of patients with sensitive tumors from the relapsing group to the cured group, with minimal impact on time to relapse for a larger group of patients with resistant tumors. In untreated patients, the proportion of patients in the rapid-decay phase increased (p=0.04) while rapid-decay t1/2 decreased (p=0.0004) with increasing

  4. Analyzing survival curves at a fixed point in time for paired and clustered right-censored data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Su, Pei-Fang; Chi, Yunchan; Lee, Chun-Yi; Shyr, Yu; Liao, Yi-De

    2018-01-01

    In clinical trials, information about certain time points may be of interest in making decisions about treatment effectiveness. Rather than comparing entire survival curves, researchers can focus on the comparison at fixed time points that may have a clinical utility for patients. For two independent samples of right-censored data, Klein et al. (2007) compared survival probabilities at a fixed time point by studying a number of tests based on some transformations of the Kaplan-Meier estimators of the survival function. However, to compare the survival probabilities at a fixed time point for paired right-censored data or clustered right-censored data, their approach would need to be modified. In this paper, we extend the statistics to accommodate the possible within-paired correlation and within-clustered correlation, respectively. We use simulation studies to present comparative results. Finally, we illustrate the implementation of these methods using two real data sets. PMID:29456280

  5. Survival curves after X-ray and heat treatments for melanoma cells derived directly from surgical specimens of tumours in man

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rofstad, E.K.; Wahl, A.; Tveit, K.M.; Monge, O.R.; Brustad, T.

    1985-01-01

    X-ray and heat survival curves were established for melanoma cells derived directly from surgical specimens of tumours in man by using the Courtenay soft agar colony assay. The plating efficiency for 11 of the 14 melanomas studied was sufficiently high (PE = 0.3-58%) to measure cell survival over at least two decades. Experiments repeated with cells stored in liquid nitrogen showed that the survival assay gave highly reproducible results. The melanomas exhibited individual and characteristic survival curves whether exposed to radiation or heat (43.5 0 C). The D 0 -values were in the ranges 0.63-1.66 Gy (X-rays) and 33-58 min (heat). The survival curves were similar to those reported previously for human melanoma xenografts. The radiation sensitivity of the cells was not correlated to the heat sensitivity. Since the melanomas appeared to be very heterogeneous in radiation response in vitro as melanomas are known to be clinically, it is suggested that melanomas may be suitable for prospective studies aimed at establishing whether clinical radioreponsiveness somehow is related to in vitro survival curve parameters. (orig.)

  6. Mathematical analysis of 51Cr-labelled red cell survival curves in congenital haemolytic anaemias

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kasfiki, A.G.; Antipas, S.E.; Dimitriou, P.A.; Gritzali, F.A.; Melissinos, K.G.

    1982-01-01

    The parameters of 51 Cr labelled red cell survival curves were calculated in 26 patients with homozygous β-thalassaemia, 8 with sickle-cell anaemia and 3 with s-β-thalassaemia, using a non-linear weighted least squares analysis computer program. In thalassaemic children the calculated parameters denote that the shorting of the mean cell life is due to early senescence alone, while there is some evidence that in thalassaemic adults additional extracellular destruction mechanisms participate as well. Red cell survival curves from patients with sickle-cell anaemia and s-β-thalassaemia resemble each other, while their parameters indicate an initial rapid loss of radioactivity, early senescence and the presence of extracellular red cell destruction factors. (orig.)

  7. Intercellular contact: its influence on the Dsub(q) of mammalian cell survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand, R.E.; Sutherland, R.M.

    1975-01-01

    Cell survival in tissues exposed to a given dose of ionizing radiation is usually greater than that of similar cells grown individually in vitro, despite the fact that the radiosensitivities (D 0 ) are virtually identical under the two conditions. An analogous increase in cell survival is observed when Chinese hamster V79-171 cells are grown in suspension culture and irradiated as multicell spheroids. Unfortunately, the information gained from the survival curves so obtained is limited by the inhomogeneity of the cell population with respect to both degree of contact and cell cycle position. The latter can be studied using synchronized small spheroids. The ratio of Dsub(q) of spheroid cells to Dsub(q) of single cells increased as the cells progressed through the cell cycle, from a minimum of 1.3 for G 1 phase cells to a maximum of 2.2 for late S-phase cells. The enhanced survival, or 'contact effect', developed slowly as the spheroids grew, after an initial latent period of about one generation cycle of the cells. A second effect of intercellular contact on mammalian cell survival has also been observed. When cells are assayed under conditions in which intercellular contact is maintained, the net cellular survival is increased further. This effect is different from the usual repair of potentially lethal damage, in that it occurs much more slowly and results in modification of the survival-curve shoulder. Not all cell types tested have shown enhanced survival when grown as spheroids. Several MNNG-induced mutants of the Chinese hamster V79-171 line have been isolated and sublines which do and do not show the contact effect are now available. These may permit study of the mechanism(s) of contact effects. (author)

  8. Finding Risk Groups by Optimizing Artificial Neural Networks on the Area under the Survival Curve Using Genetic Algorithms.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kalderstam, Jonas; Edén, Patrik; Ohlsson, Mattias

    2015-01-01

    We investigate a new method to place patients into risk groups in censored survival data. Properties such as median survival time, and end survival rate, are implicitly improved by optimizing the area under the survival curve. Artificial neural networks (ANN) are trained to either maximize or minimize this area using a genetic algorithm, and combined into an ensemble to predict one of low, intermediate, or high risk groups. Estimated patient risk can influence treatment choices, and is important for study stratification. A common approach is to sort the patients according to a prognostic index and then group them along the quartile limits. The Cox proportional hazards model (Cox) is one example of this approach. Another method of doing risk grouping is recursive partitioning (Rpart), which constructs a decision tree where each branch point maximizes the statistical separation between the groups. ANN, Cox, and Rpart are compared on five publicly available data sets with varying properties. Cross-validation, as well as separate test sets, are used to validate the models. Results on the test sets show comparable performance, except for the smallest data set where Rpart's predicted risk groups turn out to be inverted, an example of crossing survival curves. Cross-validation shows that all three models exhibit crossing of some survival curves on this small data set but that the ANN model manages the best separation of groups in terms of median survival time before such crossings. The conclusion is that optimizing the area under the survival curve is a viable approach to identify risk groups. Training ANNs to optimize this area combines two key strengths from both prognostic indices and Rpart. First, a desired minimum group size can be specified, as for a prognostic index. Second, the ability to utilize non-linear effects among the covariates, which Rpart is also able to do.

  9. New graphic AUC-based method to estimate overall survival benefit: pomalidomide reanalysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fenix-Caballero, S; Diaz-Navarro, J; Prieto-Callejero, B; Rios-Sanchez, E; Alegre-del Rey, E J; Borrero-Rubio, J M

    2016-02-01

    Difference in median survival is an erratic measure and sometimes does not provide a good assessment of survival benefit. The aim of this study was to reanalyse the overall survival benefit of pomalidomide from pivotal clinical trial using a new area under curve (AUC)-based method. In the pivotal trial, pomalidomide plus low-dose dexamethasone showed a significant survival benefit over high-dose dexamethasone, with a difference between medians of 4.6 months. The new AUC method applied to the survival curves, obtained an overall survival benefit of 2.6 months for the pomalidomide treatment. This average difference in OS was calculated for the 61.5% of patients for whom the time to event is reliable enough. This 2-month differential would have major clinical and pharmacoeconomic implications, on both cost-effectiveness studies and on the willingness of the healthcare systems to pay for this treatment. © 2015 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. Statistical inference methods for two crossing survival curves: a comparison of methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Huimin; Han, Dong; Hou, Yawen; Chen, Huilin; Chen, Zheng

    2015-01-01

    A common problem that is encountered in medical applications is the overall homogeneity of survival distributions when two survival curves cross each other. A survey demonstrated that under this condition, which was an obvious violation of the assumption of proportional hazard rates, the log-rank test was still used in 70% of studies. Several statistical methods have been proposed to solve this problem. However, in many applications, it is difficult to specify the types of survival differences and choose an appropriate method prior to analysis. Thus, we conducted an extensive series of Monte Carlo simulations to investigate the power and type I error rate of these procedures under various patterns of crossing survival curves with different censoring rates and distribution parameters. Our objective was to evaluate the strengths and weaknesses of tests in different situations and for various censoring rates and to recommend an appropriate test that will not fail for a wide range of applications. Simulation studies demonstrated that adaptive Neyman's smooth tests and the two-stage procedure offer higher power and greater stability than other methods when the survival distributions cross at early, middle or late times. Even for proportional hazards, both methods maintain acceptable power compared with the log-rank test. In terms of the type I error rate, Renyi and Cramér-von Mises tests are relatively conservative, whereas the statistics of the Lin-Xu test exhibit apparent inflation as the censoring rate increases. Other tests produce results close to the nominal 0.05 level. In conclusion, adaptive Neyman's smooth tests and the two-stage procedure are found to be the most stable and feasible approaches for a variety of situations and censoring rates. Therefore, they are applicable to a wider spectrum of alternatives compared with other tests.

  11. Probabilistic evaluation of design S-N curve and reliability assessment of ASME code-based evaluation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zhao Yongxiang

    1999-01-01

    A probabilistic evaluating approach of design S-N curve and a reliability assessment approach of the ASME code-based evaluation are presented on the basis of Langer S-N model-based P-S-N curves. The P-S-N curves are estimated by a so-called general maximum likelihood method. This method can be applied to deal with the virtual stress amplitude-crack initial life data which have a characteristics of double random variables. Investigation of a set of the virtual stress amplitude-crack initial life (S-N) data of 1Cr18Ni9Ti austenitic stainless steel-welded joint reveals that the P-S-N curves can give a good prediction of scatter regularity of the S-N data. Probabilistic evaluation of the design S-N curve with 0.9999 survival probability has considered various uncertainties, besides of the scatter of the S-N data, to an appropriate extent. The ASME code-based evaluation with 20 reduction factor on the mean life is much more conservative than that with 2 reduction factor on the stress amplitude. Evaluation of the latter in 666.61 MPa virtual stress amplitude is equivalent to 0.999522 survival probability and in 2092.18 MPa virtual stress amplitude equivalent to 0.9999999995 survival probability. This means that the evaluation in the low loading level may be non-conservative and in contrast, too conservative in the high loading level. Cause is that the reduction factors are constants and the factors can not take into account the general observation that scatter of the N data increases with the loading level decreasing. This has indicated that it is necessary to apply the probabilistic approach to the evaluation of design S-N curve

  12. Discrimination measures for survival outcomes: connection between the AUC and the predictiveness curve.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Viallon, Vivian; Latouche, Aurélien

    2011-03-01

    Finding out biomarkers and building risk scores to predict the occurrence of survival outcomes is a major concern of clinical epidemiology, and so is the evaluation of prognostic models. In this paper, we are concerned with the estimation of the time-dependent AUC--area under the receiver-operating curve--which naturally extends standard AUC to the setting of survival outcomes and enables to evaluate the discriminative power of prognostic models. We establish a simple and useful relation between the predictiveness curve and the time-dependent AUC--AUC(t). This relation confirms that the predictiveness curve is the key concept for evaluating calibration and discrimination of prognostic models. It also highlights that accurate estimates of the conditional absolute risk function should yield accurate estimates for AUC(t). From this observation, we derive several estimators for AUC(t) relying on distinct estimators of the conditional absolute risk function. An empirical study was conducted to compare our estimators with the existing ones and assess the effect of model misspecification--when estimating the conditional absolute risk function--on the AUC(t) estimation. We further illustrate the methodology on the Mayo PBC and the VA lung cancer data sets. Copyright © 2011 WILEY-VCH Verlag GmbH & Co. KGaA, Weinheim.

  13. Analysis of survival curves for Rhizopus, Mucor and Penicillia irradiated with gamma radiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ishiguro, Etsuji; Danno, Akibumi; Miyazato, Mitsuru

    1994-01-01

    This study was aimed to understand the survival pattern of some microorganisms which were treated by γ-sterilization. Though most of the works were concentrated and reported with D 10 -values, it was presently found that the γ-irradiated survival curves showed sigmoid pattern and L-values were reached about half of the D 10 -value for each strains. It was further confirmed that if L-values were used for practical sterilization with D 10 -values, the estimation of sterilized levels would become more accurate. (author). 10 refs., 3 figs., 1 tab

  14. Universal Survival Curve and Single Fraction Equivalent Dose: Useful Tools in Understanding Potency of Ablative Radiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Clint; Papiez, Lech; Zhang Shichuan; Story, Michael; Timmerman, Robert D.

    2008-01-01

    Purpose: Overprediction of the potency and toxicity of high-dose ablative radiotherapy such as stereotactic body radiotherapy (SBRT) by the linear quadratic (LQ) model led to many clinicians' hesitating to adopt this efficacious and well-tolerated therapeutic option. The aim of this study was to offer an alternative method of analyzing the effect of SBRT by constructing a universal survival curve (USC) that provides superior approximation of the experimentally measured survival curves in the ablative, high-dose range without losing the strengths of the LQ model around the shoulder. Methods and Materials: The USC was constructed by hybridizing two classic radiobiologic models: the LQ model and the multitarget model. We have assumed that the LQ model gives a good description for conventionally fractionated radiotherapy (CFRT) for the dose to the shoulder. For ablative doses beyond the shoulder, the survival curve is better described as a straight line as predicted by the multitarget model. The USC smoothly interpolates from a parabola predicted by the LQ model to the terminal asymptote of the multitarget model in the high-dose region. From the USC, we derived two equivalence functions, the biologically effective dose and the single fraction equivalent dose for both CFRT and SBRT. Results: The validity of the USC was tested by using previously published parameters of the LQ and multitarget models for non-small-cell lung cancer cell lines. A comparison of the goodness-of-fit of the LQ and USC models was made to a high-dose survival curve of the H460 non-small-cell lung cancer cell line. Conclusion: The USC can be used to compare the dose fractionation schemes of both CFRT and SBRT. The USC provides an empirically and a clinically well-justified rationale for SBRT while preserving the strengths of the LQ model for CFRT

  15. Survival curves and cell restoration of gamma irradiated chlorella

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gilet, Roland

    1970-01-01

    The characteristics of the living material used and the cultures developed are defined. The irradiation techniques and the dosimetry methods used are described. The clonal growth in a gelified nutrient solution was studied and the survival curves, which are very reproducible when anoxic conditions are eliminated, were established. It is shown that the radiosensitivity of Chlorella decreases with the age of the culture when the plateau of the growth curve is reached, and that for synchronous cells it varies slightly with the phase in the cycle at which the radiation is received. The restoration from sublethal damage occurs quickly and does not depend upon the continuation of the cell cycle when no multiplication occurs during the experiments and is not modified by anoxic conditions. The restoration rate is reduced at 0 deg. C. It explains the variations in the apparent radiosensitivity with the dose rate. In contrast with the results published for many cells, the restoration is incomplete. The problem of the elimination of sublethal damage during clonal development is posed. A model summarizing the experimental results and suggesting future work is given. (author) [fr

  16. Statistical study of clone survival curves after irradiation in one or two stages. Comparison and generalization of different models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lachet, Bernard.

    1975-01-01

    A statistical study was carried out on 208 survival curves for chlorella subjected to γ or particle radiations. The computing programmes used were written in Fortran. The different experimental causes contributing to the variance of a survival rate are analyzed and consequently the experiments can be planned. Each curve was fitted to four models by the weighted least squares method applied to non-linear functions. The validity of the fits obtained can be checked by the F test. It was possible to define the confidence and prediction zones around an adjusted curve by weighting of the residual variance, in spite of error on the doses delivered; the confidence limits can them be fixed for a dose estimated from an exact or measured survival. The four models adopted were compared for the precision of their fit (by a non-parametric simultaneous comparison test) and the scattering of their adjusted parameters: Wideroe's model gives a very good fit with the experimental points in return for a scattering of its parameters, which robs them of their presumed meaning. The principal component analysis showed the statistical equivalence of the 1 and 2 hit target models. Division of the irradiation into two doses, the first fixed by the investigator, leads to families of curves for which the equation was established from that of any basic model expressing the dose survival relationship in one-stage irradiation [fr

  17. Survival curves to support quality improvement in hospitals with excess 30-day mortality after acute myocardial infarction, cerebral stroke and hip fracture: a before-after study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kristoffersen, Doris Tove; Helgeland, Jon; Waage, Halfrid Persdatter; Thalamus, Jacob; Clemens, Dirk; Lindman, Anja Schou; Rygh, Liv Helen; Tjomsland, Ole

    2015-03-25

    To evaluate survival curves (Kaplan-Meier) as a means of identifying areas in the clinical pathway amenable to quality improvement. Observational before-after study. In Norway, annual public reporting of nationwide 30-day in-and-out-of-hospital mortality (30D) for three medical conditions started in 2011: first time acute myocardial infarction (AMI), stroke and hip fracture; reported for 2009. 12 of 61 hospitals had statistically significant lower/higher mortality compared with the hospital mean. Three hospitals with significantly higher mortality requested detailed analyses for quality improvement purposes: Telemark Hospital Trust Skien (AMI and stroke), Østfold Hospital Trust Fredrikstad (stroke), Innlandet Hospital Trust Gjøvik (hip fracture). Survival curves, crude and risk-adjusted 30D before (2008-2009) and after (2012-2013). Unadjusted survival curves for the outlier hospitals were compared to curves based on pooled data from the other hospitals for the 30-day period 2008-2009. For patients admitted with AMI (Skien), stroke (Fredrikstad) and hip fracture (Gjøvik), the curves suggested increased mortality from the initial part of the clinical pathway. For stroke (Skien), increased mortality appeared after about 8 days. The curve profiles were thought to reflect suboptimal care in various phases in the clinical pathway. This informed improvement efforts. For 2008-2009, hospital-specific curves differed from other hospitals: borderline significant for AMI (p=0.064), highly significant (p≤0.005) for the remainder. After intervention, no difference was found (p>0.188). Before-after comparison of the curves within each hospital revealed a significant change for Fredrikstad (p=0.006). For the three hospitals, crude 30D declined and they were non-outliers for risk-adjusted 30D for 2013. Survival curves as a supplement to 30D may be useful for identifying suboptimal care in the clinical pathway, and thus informing design of quality improvement projects

  18. Implications of the quadratic cell survival curve and human skin radiation ''tolerance doses'' on fractionation and superfractionation dose selection

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Douglas, B.G.

    1982-01-01

    An analysis of early published multifraction orthovoltage human acute skin irradiation tolerance isoeffect doses is presented. It indicates that human acute skin radiation reactions may result from the repetition, with each dose fraction, of a cell survival curve of the form: S = e/sup -(αD + βD 2 )/). The analysis also shows no need for an independent proliferation related time factor for skin, for daily treatments of six weeks or less in duration. The value obtained for the constant β/α for orthovoltage irradiation from these data is 2.9 x 10 -3 rad -1 for the cell line determining acute skin tolerance. A radiation isoeffect relationship, based on the quadratic cell survival curve, is introduced for human skin. This relationship has some advantages over the nominal standard dose (NSD). First, its use is not restricted to tolerance level reactions. Second, a modification of the relationship, which is also introduced, may be employed in the selection of doses per treatment when irradiation dose fractions are administered at short intervals where repair of sublethal injury is incomplete

  19. [The survival prediction model of advanced gallbladder cancer based on Bayesian network: a multi-institutional study].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Z H; Geng, Z M; Chen, C; Si, S B; Cai, Z Q; Song, T Q; Gong, P; Jiang, L; Qiu, Y H; He, Y; Zhai, W L; Li, S P; Zhang, Y C; Yang, Y

    2018-05-01

    Objective: To investigate the clinical value of Bayesian network in predicting survival of patients with advanced gallbladder cancer(GBC)who underwent curative intent surgery. Methods: The clinical data of patients with advanced GBC who underwent curative intent surgery in 9 institutions from January 2010 to December 2015 were analyzed retrospectively.A median survival time model based on a tree augmented naïve Bayes algorithm was established by Bayesia Lab software.The survival time, number of metastatic lymph nodes(NMLN), T stage, pathological grade, margin, jaundice, liver invasion, age, sex and tumor morphology were included in this model.Confusion matrix, the receiver operating characteristic curve and area under the curve were used to evaluate the accuracy of the model.A priori statistical analysis of these 10 variables and a posterior analysis(survival time as the target variable, the remaining factors as the attribute variables)was performed.The importance rankings of each variable was calculated with the polymorphic Birnbaum importance calculation based on the posterior analysis results.The survival probability forecast table was constructed based on the top 4 prognosis factors. The survival curve was drawn by the Kaplan-Meier method, and differences in survival curves were compared using the Log-rank test. Results: A total of 316 patients were enrolled, including 109 males and 207 females.The ratio of male to female was 1.0∶1.9, the age was (62.0±10.8)years.There was 298 cases(94.3%) R0 resection and 18 cases(5.7%) R1 resection.T staging: 287 cases(90.8%) T3 and 29 cases(9.2%) T4.The median survival time(MST) was 23.77 months, and the 1, 3, 5-year survival rates were 67.4%, 40.8%, 32.0%, respectively.For the Bayesian model, the number of correctly predicted cases was 121(≤23.77 months) and 115(>23.77 months) respectively, leading to a 74.86% accuracy of this model.The prior probability of survival time was 0.503 2(≤23.77 months) and 0.496 8

  20. The effect of ploidy on the modification of the shoulder region of hypoxic cell-survival curves by the biradical, Ro.03-6061

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Millar, B.C.; Millar, J.L.

    1977-01-01

    The biradical nitroxyl, Ro.03-6061, sensitized two lines of mouse L cell to ionizing radiation when the cells were rendered hypoxic. Although the biradical reduced the D 0 value of the hypoxic cell-survival curve in each instance, it had no significant effect on the shoulder region. A hybrid line produced from these two strains was more radioresistant than either parent. In this instance, the biradical suppressed the shoulder region of the hypoxic cell-survival curve, but had no effect on the D 0 value. In a second system, the biradical selectivity sensitized hypoxic cells of a diploid and a tetraploid clone of Syrian hamster cells (BHK21/C15). The survival-curve characteristics of both clones were similar. The biradical reduced the D 0 value but did not significantly change the shoulder region of the hypoxic cell-survival curve. An aneuploid line sub-cultured from the tetraploid clone was much more resistant to radiation. In this instance, there was a decrease in the D 0 value of hypoxic cells in the presence of the biradical, but the extrapolation number was increased to a value similar to that for cells irradiated in air. (author)

  1. Factors determinating the shape of survival curves of Escherichia coli cells irradiated by ionizing radiation with different LET. Peculiarities of genom organization and the shape of survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krasavin, E.A.

    1984-01-01

    The basic biological mechanisms realized on molecular, cellular and population levels and stipulating the shape of dependence of the cell suriival (S) on the dose (D) are considered. One of possible causes of nonlinear S(D) dependence are the peculiarities of DNA degradation in E. coli cells. The mechanisms of genetic control of different types of degradation are discussed. Some regularities of the genetic recombination and replication of DNA in E. coli are considered. The conclusion is made that one of the basic stipulating for the shoulder on the survival curves in E. coli are the peculiarities of the chromosome replication

  2. The effect of sub-lethal damage repair and exchange on the final slope of cell survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Carlone, M.C.; Wilkins, D.E.; Raaphorst, G.P.

    2003-01-01

    Full text: The Lea-Catcheside dose rate protraction factor, G, is the most widely used model to describe the effects of dose rate on cell survival. In the linear quadratic formalism, this factor modifies the beta component of cell killing; G is greatest for acute irradiations while vanishing at low dose rates. We have found a simple compartmental model that can derive the Lea-Catcheside function. This compartmental model clearly shows that the G function can only be derived using a little known assumption: the diminution of sub-lethal damage due to exchange of repairable lesions is negligible compared to that due to repair. This assumption was explicitly stated by Lea, but it does not appear to have been restated or verified since very early work on cell survival. The implication of this assumption is that sub-lethal damage can be modeled without considering exchange, which is evidenced by the fact that the G function does not contain parameters relating to exchange. By using a new model that fully accounts for repair and exchange of sublethal lesions, a cell survival expression that has a modified G function, but that retains the linear quadratic formalism, can be obtained. At low doses, this new model predicts linear-quadratic behavior, but the behavior gradually changes to mono-exponential at high doses, which is consistent with experimental observations. Modeling cell survival of well-known survival curves using the modified linear quadratic model shows statistically significant improvement in the fits to the cell survival data as compared to best fits obtained with the linear quadratic model. It is shown that these improvements in fits are due to a superior representation of the high dose region of the survival curve

  3. Cell survival curves deduced from non-quantitative reactions of skin, intestinal mucosa and lung

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dutreix, J.; Wambersie, A.

    1975-01-01

    The shape of the cell survival curve for the cell population relevant to some biological effects has been derived from the comparison of the total doses which result in the same biological effect for two irradiations delivered with N and 2N fractions in the same overall time. They show an initial slope which is interpreted as related to directly lethal, i.e. 'one-hit' or 'irreparable' events. The ratio of the initial slope and the slope at a dose D gives the contribution of the cell killing by directly lethal events relative to cell killing by accumulation of sublethal events. The bioligical effects which have been studied are: (i) dry desquamation of the skin of C 3 H mice and patients; (ii) intestinal death of BALB/c mice; and (iii) lung death of C 3 H mice. The shape of the cell survival curve has been found to be similar for skin desquamation and for intestinal death with a large contribution of lethal events, at single doses of 1000 rad. For lung death the initial tangent has a smaller slope and the shoulder is broader; this is interpreted as a relatively smaller contribution of lethal events with respect to accumulation of sublethal events. (author)

  4. Three dimensions of the survival curve: horizontalization, verticalization, and longevity extension.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheung, Siu Lan Karen; Robine, Jean-Marie; Tu, Edward Jow-Ching; Caselli, Graziella

    2005-05-01

    Three dimensions of the survival curve have been developed: (1) "horizontalization," which corresponds to how long a cohort and how many survivors can live before aging-related deaths significantly decrease the proportion of survivors; (2) "verticalization," which corresponds to how concentrated aging-related ("normal") deaths are around the modal age at death (M); and (3) "longevity extension," which corresponds to how far the highest normal life durations can exceed M. Our study shows that the degree of horizontalization increased relatively less than the degree of verticalization in Hong Kong from 1976 to 2001. After age normalization, the highest normal life durations moved closer to M, implying that the increase in human longevity is meeting some resistance.

  5. Mean inactivation dose: a useful concept for intercomparison of human cell survival curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fertil, B.; Dertinger, H.; Courdi, A.; Malaise, E.P.

    1984-01-01

    The mean inactivation dose (anti D) is calculated for published in vitro survival curves obtained from cell lines of both normal and neoplastic human tissues. Cells belonging to different histological categories (melanomas, carcinomas, etc.) are shown to be characterized by distinct values of anti D which are related to the clinical radiosensitivity of tumors from these categories. Compared to other ways of representing in vitro radiosensitivity, e.g., by the multitarget parameters D 8 and n, the parameter anti D has several specific advantages

  6. Immuno-oncology combinations: raising the tail of the survival curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Harris, Samuel J.; Brown, Jessica; Lopez, Juanita; Yap, Timothy A.

    2016-01-01

    There have been exponential gains in immuno-oncology in recent times through the development of immune checkpoint inhibitors. Already approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration for advanced melanoma and non-small cell lung cancer, immune checkpoint inhibitors also appear to have significant antitumor activity in multiple other tumor types. An exciting component of immunotherapy is the durability of antitumor responses observed, with some patients achieving disease control for many years. Nevertheless, not all patients benefit, and efforts should thus now focus on improving the efficacy of immunotherapy through the use of combination approaches and predictive biomarkers of response and resistance. There are multiple potential rational combinations using an immunotherapy backbone, including existing treatments such as radiotherapy, chemotherapy or molecularly targeted agents, as well as other immunotherapeutics. The aim of such antitumor strategies will be to raise the tail on the survival curve by increasing the number of long term survivors, while managing any additive or synergistic toxicities that may arise with immunotherapy combinations. Rational trial designs based on a clear understanding of tumor biology and drug pharmacology remain paramount. This article reviews the biology underpinning immuno-oncology, discusses existing and novel immunotherapeutic combinations currently in development, the challenges of predictive biomarkers of response and resistance and the impact of immuno-oncology on early phase clinical trial design

  7. Projection-based curve clustering

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Auder, Benjamin; Fischer, Aurelie

    2012-01-01

    This paper focuses on unsupervised curve classification in the context of nuclear industry. At the Commissariat a l'Energie Atomique (CEA), Cadarache (France), the thermal-hydraulic computer code CATHARE is used to study the reliability of reactor vessels. The code inputs are physical parameters and the outputs are time evolution curves of a few other physical quantities. As the CATHARE code is quite complex and CPU time-consuming, it has to be approximated by a regression model. This regression process involves a clustering step. In the present paper, the CATHARE output curves are clustered using a k-means scheme, with a projection onto a lower dimensional space. We study the properties of the empirically optimal cluster centres found by the clustering method based on projections, compared with the 'true' ones. The choice of the projection basis is discussed, and an algorithm is implemented to select the best projection basis among a library of orthonormal bases. The approach is illustrated on a simulated example and then applied to the industrial problem. (authors)

  8. MICA: Multiple interval-based curve alignment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mann, Martin; Kahle, Hans-Peter; Beck, Matthias; Bender, Bela Johannes; Spiecker, Heinrich; Backofen, Rolf

    2018-01-01

    MICA enables the automatic synchronization of discrete data curves. To this end, characteristic points of the curves' shapes are identified. These landmarks are used within a heuristic curve registration approach to align profile pairs by mapping similar characteristics onto each other. In combination with a progressive alignment scheme, this enables the computation of multiple curve alignments. Multiple curve alignments are needed to derive meaningful representative consensus data of measured time or data series. MICA was already successfully applied to generate representative profiles of tree growth data based on intra-annual wood density profiles or cell formation data. The MICA package provides a command-line and graphical user interface. The R interface enables the direct embedding of multiple curve alignment computation into larger analyses pipelines. Source code, binaries and documentation are freely available at https://github.com/BackofenLab/MICA

  9. WE-H-BRA-08: A Monte Carlo Cell Nucleus Model for Assessing Cell Survival Probability Based On Particle Track Structure Analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, B [Northwestern Memorial Hospital, Chicago, IL (United States); Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Georgia); Wang, C [Georgia Institute of Technology, Atlanta, GA (Georgia)

    2016-06-15

    Purpose: To correlate the damage produced by particles of different types and qualities to cell survival on the basis of nanodosimetric analysis and advanced DNA structures in the cell nucleus. Methods: A Monte Carlo code was developed to simulate subnuclear DNA chromatin fibers (CFs) of 30nm utilizing a mean-free-path approach common to radiation transport. The cell nucleus was modeled as a spherical region containing 6000 chromatin-dense domains (CDs) of 400nm diameter, with additional CFs modeled in a sparser interchromatin region. The Geant4-DNA code was utilized to produce a particle track database representing various particles at different energies and dose quantities. These tracks were used to stochastically position the DNA structures based on their mean free path to interaction with CFs. Excitation and ionization events intersecting CFs were analyzed using the DBSCAN clustering algorithm for assessment of the likelihood of producing DSBs. Simulated DSBs were then assessed based on their proximity to one another for a probability of inducing cell death. Results: Variations in energy deposition to chromatin fibers match expectations based on differences in particle track structure. The quality of damage to CFs based on different particle types indicate more severe damage by high-LET radiation than low-LET radiation of identical particles. In addition, the model indicates more severe damage by protons than of alpha particles of same LET, which is consistent with differences in their track structure. Cell survival curves have been produced showing the L-Q behavior of sparsely ionizing radiation. Conclusion: Initial results indicate the feasibility of producing cell survival curves based on the Monte Carlo cell nucleus method. Accurate correlation between simulated DNA damage to cell survival on the basis of nanodosimetric analysis can provide insight into the biological responses to various radiation types. Current efforts are directed at producing cell

  10. Initial slope of human tumor cell survival curves: its modification by the oxic cell sensitizer beta-arabinofuranosyladenine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chavaudra, N.; Halimi, M.; Parmentier, C.; Gaillard, N.; Grinfeld, S.; Malaise, E.P.

    1989-01-01

    The initial slope of the survival curve, which is a characteristic of each tumor cell line, varies with the histological group of the tumor. It is one of the factors on which clinical radioresponsiveness depends. The DNA dependant DNA polymerase inhibitor beta-ara A acts as an oxic cell sensitizer. This study was carried out on human tumor cell lines to look for a correlation between the degree of radiosensitization induced by beta-ara A and the radiosensitivity of a given cell line. Six human tumor cell lines with different radiosensitivities were used (the survival rate at 2 Gy and D ranged from 20 to 73% and from 1.2 to 3.2 Gy, respectively). beta-ara A had a major toxic effect on all cell lines but this varied greatly from one cell line to another and was concentration dependant; this toxic effect was taken into account when calculating the surviving fractions. For all cell lines, beta-ara A acted as an oxic radiosensitizer and the radiosensitization was concentration dependant. Analysis of the survival curves of the 6 cell lines using the linear quadratic model showed that concentrations of beta-ara A between 200 and 1000 microM induced an increase in the linear component while the quadratic component underwent no systematic change. The sensitizing enhancement ratio (SER) measured from the Ds ratios, varied greatly from one line to another. For example, at a concentration of 500 microM, the extreme values of Ds ratios were 1.5 and 2.6. The radiosensitization is greater, the higher the radiosensitivity of the cell line studied during exponential growth. The results do not favor the use of beta-ara A in the treatment of intrinsically radioresistant human tumors

  11. Initial slope of human tumor cell survival curves: its modification by the oxic cell sensitizer beta-arabinofuranosyladenine

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chavaudra, N.; Halimi, M.; Parmentier, C.; Gaillard, N.; Grinfeld, S.; Malaise, E.P.

    1989-05-01

    The initial slope of the survival curve, which is a characteristic of each tumor cell line, varies with the histological group of the tumor. It is one of the factors on which clinical radioresponsiveness depends. The DNA dependant DNA polymerase inhibitor beta-ara A acts as an oxic cell sensitizer. This study was carried out on human tumor cell lines to look for a correlation between the degree of radiosensitization induced by beta-ara A and the radiosensitivity of a given cell line. Six human tumor cell lines with different radiosensitivities were used (the survival rate at 2 Gy and D ranged from 20 to 73% and from 1.2 to 3.2 Gy, respectively). beta-ara A had a major toxic effect on all cell lines but this varied greatly from one cell line to another and was concentration dependant; this toxic effect was taken into account when calculating the surviving fractions. For all cell lines, beta-ara A acted as an oxic radiosensitizer and the radiosensitization was concentration dependant. Analysis of the survival curves of the 6 cell lines using the linear quadratic model showed that concentrations of beta-ara A between 200 and 1000 microM induced an increase in the linear component while the quadratic component underwent no systematic change. The sensitizing enhancement ratio (SER) measured from the Ds ratios, varied greatly from one line to another. For example, at a concentration of 500 microM, the extreme values of Ds ratios were 1.5 and 2.6. The radiosensitization is greater, the higher the radiosensitivity of the cell line studied during exponential growth. The results do not favor the use of beta-ara A in the treatment of intrinsically radioresistant human tumors.

  12. Development of a statistically-based lower bound fracture toughness curve (Ksub(IR) curve)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wullaert, R.A.; Server, W.L.; Oldfield, W.; Stahlkopf, K.E.

    1977-01-01

    A program of initiation fracture toughness measurements on fifty heats of nuclear pressure vessel production materials (including weldments) was used to develop a methodology for establishing a revised reference toughness curve. The new methodology was statistically developed and provides a predefined confidence limit (or tolerance limit) for fracture toughness based upon many heats of a particular type of material. Overall reference curves were developed for seven specific materials using large specimen static and dynamic fracture toughness results. The heat-to-heat variation was removed by normalizing both the fracture toughness and temperature data with the precracked Charpy tanh curve coefficients for each particular heat. The variance and distribution about the curve were determined, and lower bounds of predetermined statistical significance were drawn based upon a Pearson distribution in the lower shelf region (since the data were skewed to high values) and a t-distribution in the transition temperature region (since the data were normally distributed)

  13. Structural Acoustic Physics Based Modeling of Curved Composite Shells

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-09-19

    NUWC-NPT Technical Report 12,236 19 September 2017 Structural Acoustic Physics -Based Modeling of Curved Composite Shells Rachel E. Hesse...SUBTITLE Structural Acoustic Physics -Based Modeling of Curved Composite Shells 5a. CONTRACT NUMBER 5b. GRANT NUMBER 5c. PROGRAM ELEMENT...study was to use physics -based modeling (PBM) to investigate wave propagations through curved shells that are subjected to acoustic excitation. An

  14. Comparing survival curves using rank tests

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Albers, Willem/Wim

    1990-01-01

    Survival times of patients can be compared using rank tests in various experimental setups, including the two-sample case and the case of paired data. Attention is focussed on two frequently occurring complications in medical applications: censoring and tail alternatives. A review is given of the

  15. Ensemble of cell survival experiments after ion irradiation for validation of RBE models

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedrich, Thomas; Scholz, Uwe; Scholz, Michael [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany); Durante, Marco [GSI Helmholtzzentrum fuer Schwerionenforschung, Darmstadt (Germany); Institut fuer Festkoerperphysik, TU Darmstadt, Darmstadt (Germany)

    2012-07-01

    There is persistent interest in understanding the systematics of the relative biological effectiveness (RBE). Models such as the Local Effect Model (LEM) or the Microdosimetric Kinetic Model have the goal to predict the RBE. For the validation of these models a collection of many in-vitro cell survival experiments is most appropriate. The set-up of an ensemble of in-vitro cell survival data comprising about 850 survival experiments after both ion and photon irradiation is reported. The survival curves have been taken out from publications. The experiments encompass survival curves obtained in different labs, using different ion species from protons to uranium, varying irradiation modalities (shaped or monoenergetic beam), various energies and linear energy transfers, and a whole variety of cell types (human or rodent; normal, mutagenic or tumor; radioresistant or -sensitive). Each cell survival curve has been parameterized by the linear-quadratic model. The photon parameters have been added to the data base to allow to calculate the experimental RBE to any survival level. We report on experimental trends found within the data ensemble. The data will serve as a testing ground for RBE models such as the LEM. Finally, a roadmap for further validation and first model results using the data base in combination with the LEM are presented.

  16. A review and comparison of methods for recreating individual patient data from published Kaplan-Meier survival curves for economic evaluations: a simulation study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wan, Xiaomin; Peng, Liubao; Li, Yuanjian

    2015-01-01

    In general, the individual patient-level data (IPD) collected in clinical trials are not available to independent researchers to conduct economic evaluations; researchers only have access to published survival curves and summary statistics. Thus, methods that use published survival curves and summary statistics to reproduce statistics for economic evaluations are essential. Four methods have been identified: two traditional methods 1) least squares method, 2) graphical method; and two recently proposed methods by 3) Hoyle and Henley, 4) Guyot et al. The four methods were first individually reviewed and subsequently assessed regarding their abilities to estimate mean survival through a simulation study. A number of different scenarios were developed that comprised combinations of various sample sizes, censoring rates and parametric survival distributions. One thousand simulated survival datasets were generated for each scenario, and all methods were applied to actual IPD. The uncertainty in the estimate of mean survival time was also captured. All methods provided accurate estimates of the mean survival time when the sample size was 500 and a Weibull distribution was used. When the sample size was 100 and the Weibull distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method; however, more biases were identified in the traditional methods. When a lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method generated noticeably less bias and a more accurate uncertainty compared with the Hoyle and Henley method. The traditional methods should not be preferred because of their remarkable overestimation. When the Weibull distribution was used for a fitted model, the Guyot et al. method was almost as accurate as the Hoyle and Henley method. However, if the lognormal distribution was used, the Guyot et al. method was less biased compared with the Hoyle and Henley method.

  17. A mathematical model resolving normal human blood lymphocyte population X-ray survival curves into six components: radiosensitivity, death rate and size of two responding sub-populations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Thomson, A.E.R.; Vaughan-Smith, S.; Peel, W.E.

    1982-01-01

    The analysis was based on observations of survival decrease as a function of dose (range 0-5 Gy (= 500 rad)) and time after irradiation in vitro. Since lymphocyte survival is also sensitive to culture conditions the effects of radiation were examined daily up to 3 days only, while survival of control cells remained ca. 90 per cent. The time-dependent changes were resolved as the death rates (first-order governed) of lethally-hit cells (apparent survivors), so rendering these distinguishable from the morphologically identical, true (ultimate) survivors. For 12 blood donors the estimated dose permitting 37 per cent ultimate survival (D 37 value) averaged 0.72 +- 0.18 (SD) Gy for the more radiosensitive lymphocyte fraction and 2.50 +- 0.67 Gy for the less radiosensitive, each fraction proving homogeneously radiosensitive and the latter identifying substantially in kind with T-type (E-rosetting lymphocytes). The half-life of lethally-hit members of either fraction varied widely among the donors (ranges, 25-104 hours and 11-40 hours, respectively). Survival curves reconstructed by summating the numerical estimates of the six parameters according to the theoretical model closely matched those observed experimentally (ranged in multiple correlation coefficient, 0.9709-0.9994) for all donors). This signified the absence of any additional, totally radioresistant cell fraction. (author)

  18. Irradiations of human melanoma cells by 14 MeV neutrons; survival curves interpretation; physical simulation of neutrons interactions in the cellular medium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bodez, Veronique

    2000-01-01

    14 MeV neutrons are used to irradiate human melanoma cells in order to study survival curves at low dose and low dose rate. We have simulated with the MCNP code, transport of neutrons through the experimental setup to evaluate the contamination of the primary beam by gamma and electrons, for the feasibility of our experiments. We have shown a rapid decrease of the survival curve in the first cGy followed by a plateau for doses up to 30 cGy; after we observed an exponential decrease. This results are observed for the first time, for neutrons at low dose rate (5 cGy/h). In parallel with this experimental point, we have developed a simulation code which permitted the study of neutrons interactions with the cellular medium for individual cells defined as in our experimental conditions. We show that most of the energy is deposited by protons from neutron interactions with external medium, and by heavy ions for interactions into the cell. On the other hand the code gives a good order of magnitude of the dose rate, compared to the experimental values given by silicon diodes. The first results show that we can, using a theory based on induced repair of cells, give an interpretation of the observed experimental plateau. We can give an estimation of the radial distribution of dose for the tracks of charged ions, we show the possibility of calculate interaction cross sections with cellular organelles. Such a work gives interesting perspectives for the future in radiobiology, radiotherapy or radioprotection. (author) [fr

  19. Prognostic classification index in Iranian colorectal cancer patients: Survival tree analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Amal Saki Malehi

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the prognostic index for separating homogenous subgroups in colorectal cancer (CRC patients based on clinicopathological characteristics using survival tree analysis. Methods: The current study was conducted at the Research Center of Gastroenterology and Liver Disease, Shahid Beheshti Medical University in Tehran, between January 2004 and January 2009. A total of 739 patients who already have been diagnosed with CRC based on pathologic report were enrolled. The data included demographic and clinical-pathological characteristic of patients. Tree-structured survival analysis based on a recursive partitioning algorithm was implemented to evaluate prognostic factors. The probability curves were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier method, and the hazard ratio was estimated as an interest effect size. Result: There were 526 males (71.2% of these patients. The mean survival time (from diagnosis time was 42.46± (3.4. Survival tree identified three variables as main prognostic factors and based on their four prognostic subgroups was constructed. The log-rank test showed good separation of survival curves. Patients with Stage I-IIIA and treated with surgery as the first treatment showed low risk (median = 34 months whereas patients with stage IIIB, IV, and more than 68 years have the worse survival outcome (median = 9.5 months. Conclusion: Constructing the prognostic classification index via survival tree can aid the researchers to assess interaction between clinical variables and determining the cumulative effect of these variables on survival outcome.

  20. Compact Hilbert Curve Index Algorithm Based on Gray Code

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    CAO Xuefeng

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available Hilbert curve has best clustering in various kinds of space filling curves, and has been used as an important tools in discrete global grid spatial index design field. But there are lots of redundancies in the standard Hilbert curve index when the data set has large differences between dimensions. In this paper, the construction features of Hilbert curve is analyzed based on Gray code, and then the compact Hilbert curve index algorithm is put forward, in which the redundancy problem has been avoided while Hilbert curve clustering preserved. Finally, experiment results shows that the compact Hilbert curve index outperforms the standard Hilbert index, their 1 computational complexity is nearly equivalent, but the real data set test shows the coding time and storage space decrease 40%, the speedup ratio of sorting speed is nearly 4.3.

  1. Analysis of velocity planning interpolation algorithm based on NURBS curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Wanjun; Gao, Shanping; Cheng, Xiyan; Zhang, Feng

    2017-04-01

    To reduce interpolation time and Max interpolation error in NURBS (Non-Uniform Rational B-Spline) inter-polation caused by planning Velocity. This paper proposed a velocity planning interpolation algorithm based on NURBS curve. Firstly, the second-order Taylor expansion is applied on the numerator in NURBS curve representation with parameter curve. Then, velocity planning interpolation algorithm can meet with NURBS curve interpolation. Finally, simulation results show that the proposed NURBS curve interpolator meet the high-speed and high-accuracy interpolation requirements of CNC systems. The interpolation of NURBS curve should be finished.

  2. MOND rotation curves for spiral galaxies with Cepheid-based distances

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bottema, R; Pestana, JLG; Rothberg, B; Sanders, RH

    2002-01-01

    Rotation curves for four spiral galaxies with recently determined Cepheid-based distances are reconsidered in terms of modified Newtonian dynamics (MOND). For two of the objects, NGC 2403 and NGC 7331, the rotation curves predicted by MOND are compatible with the observed curves when these galaxies

  3. Does my high blood pressure improve your survival? Overall and subgroup learning curves in health.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Gestel, Raf; Müller, Tobias; Bosmans, Johan

    2017-09-01

    Learning curves in health are of interest for a wide range of medical disciplines, healthcare providers, and policy makers. In this paper, we distinguish between three types of learning when identifying overall learning curves: economies of scale, learning from cumulative experience, and human capital depreciation. In addition, we approach the question of how treating more patients with specific characteristics predicts provider performance. To soften collinearity problems, we explore the use of least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression as a variable selection method and Theil-Goldberger mixed estimation to augment the available information. We use data from the Belgian Transcatheter Aorta Valve Implantation (TAVI) registry, containing information on the first 860 TAVI procedures in Belgium. We find that treating an additional TAVI patient is associated with an increase in the probability of 2-year survival by about 0.16%-points. For adverse events like renal failure and stroke, we find that an extra day between procedures is associated with an increase in the probability for these events by 0.12%-points and 0.07%-points, respectively. Furthermore, we find evidence for positive learning effects from physicians' experience with defibrillation, treating patients with hypertension, and the use of certain types of replacement valves during the TAVI procedure. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  4. Comparison of wind turbines based on power curve analysis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1998-02-01

    In the study measured power curves for 46 wind turbines were analyzed with the purpose to establish the basis for a consistent comparison of the efficiency of the wind turbines. Emphasis is on wind turbines above 500 kW rated power, with power curves measured after 1994 according to international recommendations. The available power curves fulfilling these requirements were smoothened according to a procedure developed for the purpose in such a way that the smoothened power curves are equally representative as the measured curves. The resulting smoothened power curves are presented in a standardized format for the subsequent processing. Using wind turbine data from the power curve documentation the analysis results in curves for specific energy production (kWh/M{sup 2}/yr) versus specific rotor load (kW/M{sup 2}) for a range of mean wind speeds. On this basis generalized curves for specific annual energy production versus specific rotor load are established for a number of generalized wind turbine concepts. The 46 smoothened standardized power curves presented in the report, the procedure developed to establish them, and the results of the analysis based on them aim at providers of measured power curves as well as users of them including manufacturers, advisors and decision makers. (au)

  5. Reliability Based Geometric Design of Horizontal Circular Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajbongshi, Pabitra; Kalita, Kuldeep

    2018-06-01

    Geometric design of horizontal circular curve primarily involves with radius of the curve and stopping sight distance at the curve section. Minimum radius is decided based on lateral thrust exerted on the vehicles and the minimum stopping sight distance is provided to maintain the safety in longitudinal direction of vehicles. Available sight distance at site can be regulated by changing the radius and middle ordinate at the curve section. Both radius and sight distance depend on design speed. Speed of vehicles at any road section is a variable parameter and therefore, normally the 98th percentile speed is taken as the design speed. This work presents a probabilistic approach for evaluating stopping sight distance, considering the variability of all input parameters of sight distance. It is observed that the 98th percentile sight distance value is much lower than the sight distance corresponding to 98th percentile speed. The distribution of sight distance parameter is also studied and found to follow a lognormal distribution. Finally, the reliability based design charts are presented for both plain and hill regions, and considering the effect of lateral thrust.

  6. Reliability Based Geometric Design of Horizontal Circular Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rajbongshi, Pabitra; Kalita, Kuldeep

    2018-03-01

    Geometric design of horizontal circular curve primarily involves with radius of the curve and stopping sight distance at the curve section. Minimum radius is decided based on lateral thrust exerted on the vehicles and the minimum stopping sight distance is provided to maintain the safety in longitudinal direction of vehicles. Available sight distance at site can be regulated by changing the radius and middle ordinate at the curve section. Both radius and sight distance depend on design speed. Speed of vehicles at any road section is a variable parameter and therefore, normally the 98th percentile speed is taken as the design speed. This work presents a probabilistic approach for evaluating stopping sight distance, considering the variability of all input parameters of sight distance. It is observed that the 98th percentile sight distance value is much lower than the sight distance corresponding to 98th percentile speed. The distribution of sight distance parameter is also studied and found to follow a lognormal distribution. Finally, the reliability based design charts are presented for both plain and hill regions, and considering the effect of lateral thrust.

  7. Linear Titration Curves of Acids and Bases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joseph, N R

    1959-05-29

    The Henderson-Hasselbalch equation, by a simple transformation, becomes pH - pK = pA - pB, where pA and pB are the negative logarithms of acid and base concentrations. Sigmoid titration curves then reduce to straight lines; titration curves of polyelectrolytes, to families of straight lines. The method is applied to the titration of the dipeptide glycyl aminotricarballylic acid, with four titrable groups. Results are expressed as Cartesian and d'Ocagne nomograms. The latter is of a general form applicable to polyelectrolytes of any degree of complexity.

  8. Modification by preirradiation growth conditions of the shoulder of the UV fluence-survival curve of Escherichia coli B/r WP2 thy trp and changes in mutagenic response toward tryptophan prototrophy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doudney, C.O.

    1978-01-01

    The distinct three-section UV fluence-mutation frequency response (MFR) curve demonstrated in Escherichia coli strain B/r WP2 thy trp and its uvrA derivative supports the SOS hypothesis and suggests that trp + revertants can arise either from isolated lesions (1DM) plus SOS induction or from two lesions in proximity (2DM). Preirradiation growth on arabinose instead of glucose converted the fluence-survival curve from highly shouldered to exponential but did not affect the three-section MFR curve. Prestarvation of the uvrA + strain for typtophan, which drastically increases the expanse of the shoulder of the survival curve, greatly decreased both 1DM and 2DM. With the uvrA strain the increase in shoulder expanse after typtophan prestarvation was accompanied by greatly increased 2DM but no change in 1DM. Preincubation with chloramphenicol induced an even greater increase in 2DM response than amino acid prestarvation. Nalidixic acid, which prevents DNA accumulation, eliminated the response. (Auth.)

  9. Design of airborne imaging spectrometer based on curved prism

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nie, Yunfeng; Xiangli, Bin; Zhou, Jinsong; Wei, Xiaoxiao

    2011-11-01

    A novel moderate-resolution imaging spectrometer spreading from visible wavelength to near infrared wavelength range with a spectral resolution of 10 nm, which combines curved prisms with the Offner configuration, is introduced. Compared to conventional imaging spectrometers based on dispersive prism or diffractive grating, this design possesses characteristics of small size, compact structure, low mass as well as little spectral line curve (smile) and spectral band curve (keystone or frown). Besides, the usage of compound curved prisms with two or more different materials can greatly reduce the nonlinearity inevitably brought by prismatic dispersion. The utilization ratio of light radiation is much higher than imaging spectrometer of the same type based on combination of diffractive grating and concentric optics. In this paper, the Seidel aberration theory of curved prism and the optical principles of Offner configuration are illuminated firstly. Then the optical design layout of the spectrometer is presented, and the performance evaluation of this design, including spot diagram and MTF, is analyzed. To step further, several types of telescope matching this system are provided. This work provides an innovational perspective upon optical system design of airborne spectral imagers; therefore, it can offer theoretic guide for imaging spectrometer of the same kind.

  10. Simulation-optimization model of reservoir operation based on target storage curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Hong-bin Fang

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available This paper proposes a new storage allocation rule based on target storage curves. Joint operating rules are also proposed to solve the operation problems of a multi-reservoir system with joint demands and water transfer-supply projects. The joint operating rules include a water diversion rule to determine the amount of diverted water in a period, a hedging rule based on an aggregated reservoir to determine the total release from the system, and a storage allocation rule to specify the release from each reservoir. A simulation-optimization model was established to optimize the key points of the water diversion curves, the hedging rule curves, and the target storage curves using the improved particle swarm optimization (IPSO algorithm. The multi-reservoir water supply system located in Liaoning Province, China, including a water transfer-supply project, was employed as a case study to verify the effectiveness of the proposed join operating rules and target storage curves. The results indicate that the proposed operating rules are suitable for the complex system. The storage allocation rule based on target storage curves shows an improved performance with regard to system storage distribution.

  11. A Novel Inflammation-Based Stage (I Stage Predicts Overall Survival of Patients with Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jian-Pei Li

    2016-11-01

    Full Text Available Recent studies have indicated that inflammation-based prognostic scores, such as the Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS, modified GPS (mGPS and C-reactive protein/Albumin (CRP/Alb ratio, platelet–lymphocyte ratio (PLR, and neutrophil–lymphocyte ratio (NLR, have been reported to have prognostic value in patients with many types of cancer, including nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC. In this study, we proposed a novel inflammation-based stage, named I stage, for patients with NPC. A retrospective study of 409 newly-diagnosed cases of NPC was conducted. The prognostic factors (GPS, mGPS, CRP/Alb ratios, PLR, and NLR were evaluated using univariate and multivariate analyses. Then, according to the results of the multivariate analyses, we proposed a I stage combination of independent risk factors (CRP/Alb ratio and PLR. The I stage was calculated as follows: patients with high levels of CRP/Alb ratio (>0.03 and PLR (>146.2 were defined as I2; patients with one or no abnormal values were defined as I1 or I0, respectively. The relationships between the I stage and clinicopathological variables and overall survival (OS were evaluated. In addition, the discriminatory ability of the I stage with other inflammation-based prognostic scores was assessed using the AUCs (areas under the curves analyzed by receiver operating characteristics (ROC curves. The p value of <0.05 was considered to be significant. A total of 409 patients with NPC were enrolled in this study. Multivariate analyses revealed that only the CRP/Alb ratio (Hazard ratio (HR = 2.093; 95% Confidence interval (CI: 1.222–3.587; p = 0.007 and PLR (HR: 2.003; 95% CI: 1.177–3.410; p = 0.010 were independent prognostic factors in patients with NPC. The five-year overall survival rates for patients with I0, I1, and I2 were 92.1% ± 2.9%, 83.3% ± 2.6%, and 63.1% ± 4.6%, respectively (p < 0.001. The I stage had a higher area under the curve value (0.670 compared with other systemic inflammation-based

  12. Neutron and photon clonogenic survival curves of two chemotherapy resistant human intermediate-grade non-Hodgkin lymphoma cell lines

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Aref, Amr; Yudelev, Mark; Mohammad, Ramzi; Choudhuri, Rajani; Orton, Colin; Al-Katib, Ayad

    1999-01-01

    Background: The potential role of neutron therapy in the management of intermediate-grade non-Hodgkin lymphoma (IGNHL) has not been examined because of the belief that the anticipated radiobiological effectiveness (RBE) would be uniformly very low. Purpose: To determine the fast neutron RBE for two chemotherapy-resistant IGNHL cell lines. Methods and Materials: Conventional soft agar clonogenic survival curves following irradiation by 60 Co and fast neutron were established for two IGNHL cell lines. These cell lines, WSU-DLCL2 and SK-DHL2B, were found in previous studies to be able to repair sublethal damage, and were also resistant to L-Pam and doxorubicin chemotherapy. Results: When the surviving fraction after 2 Gy photon was chosen as the biological endpoint, the RBE for WSU-DLCL2 and SK-DHL2B measured 3.34 and 3.06. Similarly, when 10% survival was considered, the RBE for these two cell lines measured 2.54 and 2.59. The RBE, as measured by the ratios α neutron/α photon, for WSU-DLCL2, SK-DHL2B cell lines are 6.67 and 5.65, respectively. These results indicate that the RBE for these IGNHL cell lines is higher than the average RBE for cell lines of other histological types. Conclusion: Fast neutron irradiation may be of potential value in treating selected cases of IGNHL

  13. Depression and Liver Transplant Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meller, William; Welle, Nicole; Sutley, Kristen; Thurber, Steven

    Patients who underwent liver transplantation and experienced clinical depression have heretofore evinced lower survival rates when compared to nondepressed counterparts. To investigate the hypothesis that transplant patients who seek and obtain medical treatment for depression would circumvent the prior reduced survival findings. A total of 765 patients with liver transplants were scrutinized for complications following transplantation. Further, 104 patients experienced posttransplant depression as manifested by diagnosis and treatment by medical personnel. Survival analyses were conducted comparing hazard and survival curves for these selected individuals and the remainder of transplant patients. Contrary to prior data and consistent with the aforementioned hypothesis, median survival durations, survival curves, and hazard functions (controlling for age and prolonged posttransplant survival for the depressed patients were better. The improved survival for the depressed patients may simply be related to an amelioration of depressed symptoms via antidepressant medications. However, this interpretation would only be congruent with reduced hazard, not elevated survival, beyond the norm (median) for other transplant participants. Assuming the reliability and generalization of our findings, perhaps a reasonable and compelling interpretation is that combined with the effectiveness of antidepressant medications, the seeking and receiving treatment for depression is a type of proxy measure of a more global pattern of adherence to recommended posttransplant medical regimens. Copyright © 2017 The Academy of Psychosomatic Medicine. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Hemopoietic stem-cell compartment of the SCID mouse: Double-exponential survival curve after γ irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Taniguchi, Satoshi; Hirabayashi, Yoko; Inoue, Tohru; Kanisawa, Masayoshi; Sasaki, Hideki; Komatsu, Kenshi; Mori, K.J.

    1993-01-01

    It has been reported that SCID (severe combined immunodeficiency, scid/scid) mice are more radiosensitive than normal mice. In the present studies, graded doses of radiation were given to bone marrow cells from SCID mice, and double-exponential survival curves were observed for day-9 and day-12 colony-forming units in the spleen (CFU-S). Single-exponential curves were found for SCID CFU in in vitro assays for granulocyte/macrophage-CFUs and erythroid burst-forming units, as reported elsewhere. Since the size of this more resistant fraction seems to decrease with stem-cell maturation, the finding implies that this fraction is a primitive subpopulation of the stem-cell compartment. The mean lethal dose (D 0 ), however, of this less sensitive SCID CFU-S is much less than the D 0 of regular CFU-S in normal littermates. Spleen colonies produced by SCID bone marrow were relatively small and abortive. The size of these colonies decreased nearly exponentially with increasing doses of radiation. These colonies produced by the sensitive fraction have disappeared, being killed by a relatively low dose of radiation. This observation might account for the high lymphomagenesis arising from primitive hemopoietic stem cells in SCID mice, because the smallness of the colonies suggests that there is unrepaired or misrepaired damage. Furthermore, this less sensitive fraction might be a source of the open-quotes leakyclose quotes change of T and B cells, possibly due to the induction of an equivocal repair system which appears in the later stages of life in the SCID mice. 34 refs., 5 figs., 3 tabs

  15. Survival patterns and hemopathological responses of dogs under continuous gamma irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Seed, T.M.; Fritz, T.E.; Tolle, D.V.; Poole, C.M.; Lombard, L.S.; Doyle, D.E.; Kaspar, L.V.; Cullen, S.M.; Carnes, B.A.

    1983-01-01

    Survival curves were constructed and analyzed relative to contributing hematopathological responses for groups of beagles exposed continuously for duration of life to low daily doses of whole body 60 Co gamma irradiation (27.3 rads/day to 4 rads/day). The survival curves versus time were progressively displaced toward longer survival as rates of exposure were reduced from the relatively high dose rate of 27.3 rads/day to the low dose rate of 4.0 rads/day. Average survival times increased from 57 days at 27.3 rads/day to 1830 days at 4.0 rads/day, representing fractional increased life-spans from 1.5% to 50.8%, respectively. Survival curves versus total dose were markedly displaced along the cumulative radiation dose axis at the extreme dose rates (i.e., 27.3 and 4.0 rads/day), but not at the intermediate dose rates (i.e., 13.4 and 7.9 rads/day) in which the upper linear portions of the survival curves are superimposed. From these dose-dependent survival curves, LD 50 values for whole body gamma irradiation, delivered chronically at 27.3, 13.4, 7.9, and 4.0 rads per day were estimated to be 1442, 2124, 2039, and 7161 rads, respectively. Both time- and dose-dependent survival curves for the intermediate dose rates, in contrast to the extreme dose rates, exhibited pronounced transitions in the lethality rate below the 50% survival level. These lethality rate transitions occurred at approx. 2500 rads of accumulated dose and were attributed to a shift in the spectrum of developing hematopathologies: namely, from a predominance of the acutely ablative radiation-induced lymphohematopoietic syndromes (i.e., septicemias and aplastic anemias) to a predominance of the late arising hematopoietic neoplasias (myelogenous leukemia and related myeloproliferative disorders)

  16. Summary curves for patients transplanted for chronic myeloid leukaemia salvaged by a donor lymphocyte infusion: the current leukaemia-free survival curve

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Klein, John P.; Keiding, Niels; Shu, Youyi

    2000-01-01

    CML, donor lymphocyte infusion, leukaemia-free survival, current leukaemia-free survival, statistical methods......CML, donor lymphocyte infusion, leukaemia-free survival, current leukaemia-free survival, statistical methods...

  17. Survival curves study of platelet labelling with 51Cr

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Penas, M.E.

    1981-01-01

    Platelet kinetics and idiopathic thrombocytopenic purpura were researched in the literature. An 'in vitro' platelet labelling with 51 Cr procedure in implementation has been evaluated in human beings. Functions used for fitting considered the cases whether the curve was linear or exponential as well as the presence of hematies. (author)

  18. Using Spreadsheets to Produce Acid-Base Titration Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cawley, Martin James; Parkinson, John

    1995-01-01

    Describes two spreadsheets for producing acid-base titration curves, one uses relatively simple cell formulae that can be written into the spreadsheet by inexperienced students and the second uses more complex formulae that are best written by the teacher. (JRH)

  19. Predicting long-term graft survival in adult kidney transplant recipients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Brett W Pinsky

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available The ability to accurately predict a population′s long-term survival has important implications for quantifying the benefits of transplantation. To identify a model that can accurately predict a kidney transplant population′s long-term graft survival, we retrospectively studied the United Network of Organ Sharing data from 13,111 kidney-only transplants completed in 1988- 1989. Nineteen-year death-censored graft survival (DCGS projections were calculated and com-pared with the population′s actual graft survival. The projection curves were created using a two-part estimation model that (1 fits a Kaplan-Meier survival curve immediately after transplant (Part A and (2 uses truncated observational data to model a survival function for long-term projection (Part B. Projection curves were examined using varying amounts of time to fit both parts of the model. The accuracy of the projection curve was determined by examining whether predicted sur-vival fell within the 95% confidence interval for the 19-year Kaplan-Meier survival, and the sample size needed to detect the difference in projected versus observed survival in a clinical trial. The 19-year DCGS was 40.7% (39.8-41.6%. Excellent predictability (41.3% can be achieved when Part A is fit for three years and Part B is projected using two additional years of data. Using less than five total years of data tended to overestimate the population′s long-term survival, accurate prediction of long-term DCGS is possible, but requires attention to the quantity data used in the projection method.

  20. Analysis of survival data with dependent censoring copula-based approaches

    CERN Document Server

    Emura, Takeshi

    2018-01-01

    This book introduces readers to copula-based statistical methods for analyzing survival data involving dependent censoring. Primarily focusing on likelihood-based methods performed under copula models, it is the first book solely devoted to the problem of dependent censoring. The book demonstrates the advantages of the copula-based methods in the context of medical research, especially with regard to cancer patients’ survival data. Needless to say, the statistical methods presented here can also be applied to many other branches of science, especially in reliability, where survival analysis plays an important role. The book can be used as a textbook for graduate coursework or a short course aimed at (bio-) statisticians. To deepen readers’ understanding of copula-based approaches, the book provides an accessible introduction to basic survival analysis and explains the mathematical foundations of copula-based survival models.

  1. Burial duration, depth and air pocket explain avalanche survival patterns in Austria and Switzerland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Procter, Emily; Strapazzon, Giacomo; Dal Cappello, Tomas; Zweifel, Benjamin; Würtele, Andreas; Renner, Andreas; Falk, Markus; Brugger, Hermann

    2016-08-01

    To calculate the first Austrian avalanche survival curve and update a Swiss survival curve to explore survival patterns in the Alps. Avalanche accidents occurring between 2005/06 and 2012/13 in Austria and Switzerland were collected. Completely buried victims (i.e. burial of the head and chest) in open terrain with known outcome (survived or not survived) were included in the analysis. Extrication and survival curves were calculated using the Turnbull algorithm, as in previous studies. 633 of the 796 completely buried victims were included (Austria n=333, Switzerland n=300). Overall survival was 56% (Austria 59%; Switzerland 52%; p=0.065). Time to extrication was shorter in Austria for victims buried ≤60min (p15min. The survival curves resembled those previously published and support the idea that underlying survival patterns are reproducible. The results are in accordance with current recommendations for management of avalanche victims and serve as a reminder that expedient companion rescue within a few minutes is critical for survival. An air pocket was shown to be a positive prognostic factor for survival. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ireland Ltd. All rights reserved.

  2. Machine learning models in breast cancer survival prediction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montazeri, Mitra; Montazeri, Mohadeseh; Montazeri, Mahdieh; Beigzadeh, Amin

    2016-01-01

    Breast cancer is one of the most common cancers with a high mortality rate among women. With the early diagnosis of breast cancer survival will increase from 56% to more than 86%. Therefore, an accurate and reliable system is necessary for the early diagnosis of this cancer. The proposed model is the combination of rules and different machine learning techniques. Machine learning models can help physicians to reduce the number of false decisions. They try to exploit patterns and relationships among a large number of cases and predict the outcome of a disease using historical cases stored in datasets. The objective of this study is to propose a rule-based classification method with machine learning techniques for the prediction of different types of Breast cancer survival. We use a dataset with eight attributes that include the records of 900 patients in which 876 patients (97.3%) and 24 (2.7%) patients were females and males respectively. Naive Bayes (NB), Trees Random Forest (TRF), 1-Nearest Neighbor (1NN), AdaBoost (AD), Support Vector Machine (SVM), RBF Network (RBFN), and Multilayer Perceptron (MLP) machine learning techniques with 10-cross fold technique were used with the proposed model for the prediction of breast cancer survival. The performance of machine learning techniques were evaluated with accuracy, precision, sensitivity, specificity, and area under ROC curve. Out of 900 patients, 803 patients and 97 patients were alive and dead, respectively. In this study, Trees Random Forest (TRF) technique showed better results in comparison to other techniques (NB, 1NN, AD, SVM and RBFN, MLP). The accuracy, sensitivity and the area under ROC curve of TRF are 96%, 96%, 93%, respectively. However, 1NN machine learning technique provided poor performance (accuracy 91%, sensitivity 91% and area under ROC curve 78%). This study demonstrates that Trees Random Forest model (TRF) which is a rule-based classification model was the best model with the highest level of

  3. Qualitative Comparison of Contraction-Based Curve Skeletonization Methods

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sobiecki, André; Yasan, Haluk C.; Jalba, Andrei C.; Telea, Alexandru C.

    2013-01-01

    In recent years, many new methods have been proposed for extracting curve skeletons of 3D shapes, using a mesh-contraction principle. However, it is still unclear how these methods perform with respect to each other, and with respect to earlier voxel-based skeletonization methods, from the viewpoint

  4. Eyewitness identification: Bayesian information gain, base-rate effect equivalency curves, and reasonable suspicion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wells, Gary L; Yang, Yueran; Smalarz, Laura

    2015-04-01

    We provide a novel Bayesian treatment of the eyewitness identification problem as it relates to various system variables, such as instruction effects, lineup presentation format, lineup-filler similarity, lineup administrator influence, and show-ups versus lineups. We describe why eyewitness identification is a natural Bayesian problem and how numerous important observations require careful consideration of base rates. Moreover, we argue that the base rate in eyewitness identification should be construed as a system variable (under the control of the justice system). We then use prior-by-posterior curves and information-gain curves to examine data obtained from a large number of published experiments. Next, we show how information-gain curves are moderated by system variables and by witness confidence and we note how information-gain curves reveal that lineups are consistently more proficient at incriminating the guilty than they are at exonerating the innocent. We then introduce a new type of analysis that we developed called base rate effect-equivalency (BREE) curves. BREE curves display how much change in the base rate is required to match the impact of any given system variable. The results indicate that even relatively modest changes to the base rate can have more impact on the reliability of eyewitness identification evidence than do the traditional system variables that have received so much attention in the literature. We note how this Bayesian analysis of eyewitness identification has implications for the question of whether there ought to be a reasonable-suspicion criterion for placing a person into the jeopardy of an identification procedure. (c) 2015 APA, all rights reserved).

  5. A graph-based method for fitting planar B-spline curves with intersections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Pengbo Bo

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The problem of fitting B-spline curves to planar point clouds is studied in this paper. A novel method is proposed to deal with the most challenging case where multiple intersecting curves or curves with self-intersection are necessary for shape representation. A method based on Delauney Triangulation of data points is developed to identify connected components which is also capable of removing outliers. A skeleton representation is utilized to represent the topological structure which is further used to create a weighted graph for deciding the merging of curve segments. Different to existing approaches which utilize local shape information near intersections, our method considers shape characteristics of curve segments in a larger scope and is thus capable of giving more satisfactory results. By fitting each group of data points with a B-spline curve, we solve the problems of curve structure reconstruction from point clouds, as well as the vectorization of simple line drawing images by drawing lines reconstruction.

  6. Theory of titration curves-VII The properties of derivative titration curves for strong acid-strong base and other isovalent ion-combination titrations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meites, T; Meites, L

    1970-06-01

    This paper deals with isovalent ion-combination titrations based on reactions that can be represented by the equation M(n+) + X(n-) --> MX, where the activity of the product MX is invariant throughout a titration, and with the derivative titration curves obtained by plotting d[M(+)]/dfversus f for such titrations. It describes some of the ways in which such curves can be obtained; it compares and contrasts them both with potentiometric titration curves, which resemble them in shape, and with segmented titration curves, from which they are derived; and it discusses their properties in detail.

  7. CASAS: Cancer Survival Analysis Suite, a web based application.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupji, Manali; Zhang, Xinyan; Kowalski, Jeanne

    2017-01-01

    We present CASAS, a shiny R based tool for interactive survival analysis and visualization of results. The tool provides a web-based one stop shop to perform the following types of survival analysis:  quantile, landmark and competing risks, in addition to standard survival analysis.  The interface makes it easy to perform such survival analyses and obtain results using the interactive Kaplan-Meier and cumulative incidence plots.  Univariate analysis can be performed on one or several user specified variable(s) simultaneously, the results of which are displayed in a single table that includes log rank p-values and hazard ratios along with their significance. For several quantile survival analyses from multiple cancer types, a single summary grid is constructed. The CASAS package has been implemented in R and is available via http://shinygispa.winship.emory.edu/CASAS/. The developmental repository is available at https://github.com/manalirupji/CASAS/.

  8. Bootstrap-based procedures for inference in nonparametric receiver-operating characteristic curve regression analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rodríguez-Álvarez, María Xosé; Roca-Pardiñas, Javier; Cadarso-Suárez, Carmen; Tahoces, Pablo G

    2018-03-01

    Prior to using a diagnostic test in a routine clinical setting, the rigorous evaluation of its diagnostic accuracy is essential. The receiver-operating characteristic curve is the measure of accuracy most widely used for continuous diagnostic tests. However, the possible impact of extra information about the patient (or even the environment) on diagnostic accuracy also needs to be assessed. In this paper, we focus on an estimator for the covariate-specific receiver-operating characteristic curve based on direct regression modelling and nonparametric smoothing techniques. This approach defines the class of generalised additive models for the receiver-operating characteristic curve. The main aim of the paper is to offer new inferential procedures for testing the effect of covariates on the conditional receiver-operating characteristic curve within the above-mentioned class. Specifically, two different bootstrap-based tests are suggested to check (a) the possible effect of continuous covariates on the receiver-operating characteristic curve and (b) the presence of factor-by-curve interaction terms. The validity of the proposed bootstrap-based procedures is supported by simulations. To facilitate the application of these new procedures in practice, an R-package, known as npROCRegression, is provided and briefly described. Finally, data derived from a computer-aided diagnostic system for the automatic detection of tumour masses in breast cancer is analysed.

  9. Feature Extraction from 3D Point Cloud Data Based on Discrete Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yi An

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available Reliable feature extraction from 3D point cloud data is an important problem in many application domains, such as reverse engineering, object recognition, industrial inspection, and autonomous navigation. In this paper, a novel method is proposed for extracting the geometric features from 3D point cloud data based on discrete curves. We extract the discrete curves from 3D point cloud data and research the behaviors of chord lengths, angle variations, and principal curvatures at the geometric features in the discrete curves. Then, the corresponding similarity indicators are defined. Based on the similarity indicators, the geometric features can be extracted from the discrete curves, which are also the geometric features of 3D point cloud data. The threshold values of the similarity indicators are taken from [0,1], which characterize the relative relationship and make the threshold setting easier and more reasonable. The experimental results demonstrate that the proposed method is efficient and reliable.

  10. Thermodynamic Activity-Based Progress Curve Analysis in Enzyme Kinetics.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pleiss, Jürgen

    2018-03-01

    Macrokinetic Michaelis-Menten models based on thermodynamic activity provide insights into enzyme kinetics because they separate substrate-enzyme from substrate-solvent interactions. Kinetic parameters are estimated from experimental progress curves of enzyme-catalyzed reactions. Three pitfalls are discussed: deviations between thermodynamic and concentration-based models, product effects on the substrate activity coefficient, and product inhibition. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  11. A standard curve based method for relative real time PCR data processing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Krause Andreas

    2005-03-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Currently real time PCR is the most precise method by which to measure gene expression. The method generates a large amount of raw numerical data and processing may notably influence final results. The data processing is based either on standard curves or on PCR efficiency assessment. At the moment, the PCR efficiency approach is preferred in relative PCR whilst the standard curve is often used for absolute PCR. However, there are no barriers to employ standard curves for relative PCR. This article provides an implementation of the standard curve method and discusses its advantages and limitations in relative real time PCR. Results We designed a procedure for data processing in relative real time PCR. The procedure completely avoids PCR efficiency assessment, minimizes operator involvement and provides a statistical assessment of intra-assay variation. The procedure includes the following steps. (I Noise is filtered from raw fluorescence readings by smoothing, baseline subtraction and amplitude normalization. (II The optimal threshold is selected automatically from regression parameters of the standard curve. (III Crossing points (CPs are derived directly from coordinates of points where the threshold line crosses fluorescence plots obtained after the noise filtering. (IV The means and their variances are calculated for CPs in PCR replicas. (V The final results are derived from the CPs' means. The CPs' variances are traced to results by the law of error propagation. A detailed description and analysis of this data processing is provided. The limitations associated with the use of parametric statistical methods and amplitude normalization are specifically analyzed and found fit to the routine laboratory practice. Different options are discussed for aggregation of data obtained from multiple reference genes. Conclusion A standard curve based procedure for PCR data processing has been compiled and validated. It illustrates that

  12. Applied survival analysis using R

    CERN Document Server

    Moore, Dirk F

    2016-01-01

    Applied Survival Analysis Using R covers the main principles of survival analysis, gives examples of how it is applied, and teaches how to put those principles to use to analyze data using R as a vehicle. Survival data, where the primary outcome is time to a specific event, arise in many areas of biomedical research, including clinical trials, epidemiological studies, and studies of animals. Many survival methods are extensions of techniques used in linear regression and categorical data, while other aspects of this field are unique to survival data. This text employs numerous actual examples to illustrate survival curve estimation, comparison of survivals of different groups, proper accounting for censoring and truncation, model variable selection, and residual analysis. Because explaining survival analysis requires more advanced mathematics than many other statistical topics, this book is organized with basic concepts and most frequently used procedures covered in earlier chapters, with more advanced topics...

  13. Advanced Online Survival Analysis Tool for Predictive Modelling in Clinical Data Science.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Montes-Torres, Julio; Subirats, José Luis; Ribelles, Nuria; Urda, Daniel; Franco, Leonardo; Alba, Emilio; Jerez, José Manuel

    2016-01-01

    One of the prevailing applications of machine learning is the use of predictive modelling in clinical survival analysis. In this work, we present our view of the current situation of computer tools for survival analysis, stressing the need of transferring the latest results in the field of machine learning to biomedical researchers. We propose a web based software for survival analysis called OSA (Online Survival Analysis), which has been developed as an open access and user friendly option to obtain discrete time, predictive survival models at individual level using machine learning techniques, and to perform standard survival analysis. OSA employs an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) based method to produce the predictive survival models. Additionally, the software can easily generate survival and hazard curves with multiple options to personalise the plots, obtain contingency tables from the uploaded data to perform different tests, and fit a Cox regression model from a number of predictor variables. In the Materials and Methods section, we depict the general architecture of the application and introduce the mathematical background of each of the implemented methods. The study concludes with examples of use showing the results obtained with public datasets.

  14. Modelling and assessment of urban flood hazards based on rainfall intensity-duration-frequency curves reformation

    OpenAIRE

    Ghazavi, Reza; Moafi Rabori, Ali; Ahadnejad Reveshty, Mohsen

    2016-01-01

    Estimate design storm based on rainfall intensity–duration–frequency (IDF) curves is an important parameter for hydrologic planning of urban areas. The main aim of this study was to estimate rainfall intensities of Zanjan city watershed based on overall relationship of rainfall IDF curves and appropriate model of hourly rainfall estimation (Sherman method, Ghahreman and Abkhezr method). Hydrologic and hydraulic impacts of rainfall IDF curves change in flood properties was evaluated via Stormw...

  15. Prediction of flow boiling curves based on artificial neural network

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wu Junmei; Xi'an Jiaotong Univ., Xi'an; Su Guanghui

    2007-01-01

    The effects of the main system parameters on flow boiling curves were analyzed by using an artificial neural network (ANN) based on the database selected from the 1960s. The input parameters of the ANN are system pressure, mass flow rate, inlet subcooling, wall superheat and steady/transition boiling, and the output parameter is heat flux. The results obtained by the ANN show that the heat flux increases with increasing inlet sub cooling for all heat transfer modes. Mass flow rate has no significant effects on nucleate boiling curves. The transition boiling and film boiling heat fluxes will increase with an increase of mass flow rate. The pressure plays a predominant role and improves heat transfer in whole boiling regions except film boiling. There are slight differences between the steady and the transient boiling curves in all boiling regions except the nucleate one. (authors)

  16. ECM using Edwards curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bernstein, Daniel J.; Birkner, Peter; Lange, Tanja

    2013-01-01

    -arithmetic level are as follows: (1) use Edwards curves instead of Montgomery curves; (2) use extended Edwards coordinates; (3) use signed-sliding-window addition-subtraction chains; (4) batch primes to increase the window size; (5) choose curves with small parameters and base points; (6) choose curves with large...

  17. Radiation survival of cells from spheroids grown in different oxygen concentrations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Franko, A.J.; Sutherland, R.M.

    1979-01-01

    The position of the internal, chronically hypoxic cells in spheroids was varied by alterations in the oxygen concentration in the growth medium. Such alterations were expected to cause large changes in the size of the radiobiologically hypoxic fraction. This was tested by growing and irradiating spheroids in oxygen concentrations between 5 and 20.3%, ensuring that the irradiation and growth conditions were as similar as possible. The survival curves appeared to be linear below a surviving fraction of 3 x 10 -2 , and the slopes were intermediate between the slopes of control curves for cells from spheroids irradiated in nitrogen or when fully oxygenated. Thus direct estimates of the hypoxic fractions could not be made. Two models of oxygen diffusion might explain the data. One model assumes that a large fraction of cells was fully hypoxic (radiobiologically) and that these internal, G 1 -confined, chronically hypoxic cells had a lower inherent radioresistance than the outer proliferating cells. Evidence was presented which indicated that this model was unlikely to be correct. The other model assumes that the inherent radioresistance was equal throughout the spheroid, and that the innermost cells died before the oxygen concentration was reduced sufficiently to cause full hypoxic protection. Theoretical survival curves based on this model were generated using the measured geometries ofthe spheroids and multitarget single-hit survival theory. Acceptable agreement with the postulate that the innermost cells of spheroids die at between 0.2 and 0.4% oxygen was obtained. These data may have implications regarding the relative contributions of chronic and acute hypoxia to the fraction of hypoxic cells in tumors

  18. Investigation of the bases for use of the KIc curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    McCabe, D.E.; Nanstad, R.K.; Rosenfield, A.R.; Marschall, C.W.; Irwin, G.R.

    1991-01-01

    Title 10 of the Code of Federal Regulations, Part 50 (10CFR50), Appendix G, establishes the bases for setting allowable pressure and temperature limits on reactors during heatup and cooldown operation. Both the K Ic and K Ia curves are utilized in prescribed ways to maintain reactor vessel structural integrity in the presence of an assumed or actual flaw and operating stresses. Currently, the code uses the K Ia curve, normalized to the RT NDT , to represent the fracture toughness trend for unirradiated and irradiated pressure vessel steels. Although this is clearly a conservative policy, it has been suggested that the K Ic curve is the more appropriate for application to a non-accident operating condition. A number of uncertainties have been identified, however, that might convert normal operating transients into a dynamic loading situation. Those include the introduction of running cracks from local brittle zones, crack pop-ins, reduced toughness from arrested cleavage cracks, description of the K Ic curve for irradiated materials, and other related unresolved issues relative to elastic-plastic fracture mechanics. Some observations and conclusions can be made regarding various aspects of those uncertainties and they are discussed in this paper. A discussion of further work required and under way to address the remaining uncertainties is also presented

  19. Prognostic and survival analysis of presbyopia: The healthy twin study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lira, Adiyani; Sung, Joohon

    2015-12-01

    Presbyopia, a vision condition in which the eye loses its flexibility to focus on near objects, is part of ageing process which mostly perceptible in the early or mid 40s. It is well known that age is its major risk factor, while sex, alcohol, poor nutrition, ocular and systemic diseases are known as common risk factors. However, many other variables might influence the prognosis. Therefore in this paper we developed a prognostic model to estimate survival from presbyopia. 1645 participants which part of the Healthy Twin Study, a prospective cohort study that has recruited Korean adult twins and their family members based on a nation-wide registry at public health agencies since 2005, were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis as well as Cox proportional hazard model to reveal the prognostic factors for presbyopia while survival curves were calculated by Kaplan-Meier method. Besides age, sex, diabetes, and myopia; the proposed model shows that education level (especially engineering program) also contribute to the occurrence of presbyopia as well. Generally, at 47 years old, the chance of getting presbyopia becomes higher with the survival probability is less than 50%. Furthermore, our study shows that by stratifying the survival curve, MZ has shorter survival with average onset time about 45.8 compare to DZ and siblings with 47.5 years old. By providing factors that have more effects and mainly associate with presbyopia, we expect that we could help to design an intervention to control or delay its onset time.

  20. Analysis of possibilities of early diagnostics criteria for Parkinson's disease based on analysis of the input-output curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janković Marko

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we analyze the possibilities of the diagnosis of Parkinson's disease at an early stage, based on characteristics of the input-output curve. The input-output (IO curve was analyzed in two ways: we analyzed the gain of the curve for low-level transcranial stimulation and we analyzed the overall 'quality' of the IO curve. The 'quality' of the curve calculation is based on basic concepts from quantum mechanics and calculation of Tsallis entropy.

  1. Survival curves of irradiated glutathione-deficient human fibroblasts: indication of a reduced enhancement of radiosensitivity by oxygen and misonidazole

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Midander, J.; Deschavanne, P.J.; Malaise, E.P.; Revesz, L.

    1982-01-01

    Fibroblasts derived from a patient with 5-oxoprolinuria are genetically deficient in glutathione synthetase. This deficiency causes a dramatic decrease in intracellular glutathione (GSH) level. The radiosensitivity of GSH deficient cells (GSH) was studied in vitro using colony forming ability as an endpoint. Cells with normal GSH level, obtained from the healthy brother of the patient, were used as controls. When irradiated in 95% air-5% CO 2 , GSH - cells are slightly but significantly more radiosensitive than GSH + controls (dose modifying factor (DMF) of 1.2). When irradiated in argon, the survival curve of GSH - cells indicates an oxygen enhancement ratio (OER) of 1.5 when compared to the curve obtained in oxic conditions. The OER of control cells in the same conditions is 2.9. In comparison to results obtained in air, 100% oxygen moderately increases the radiosensitivity of GSH + cells (DMF 1,23), while it has a very low effect on GSH - cells (DMF 1.06). These results suggest that intracellular GSH plays an essential protective role in hypoxia, its effect is reduced in air and practically disappears in 100% oxygen. When cells are incubated with 8 mM misonidazole 2 hours before irradiation, the drug has a much greater sensitizing effect on GSH + cells (DMF 2.33) than on GSH - cells (DMF 1.55). The results demonstrate that intracellular GSH level plays a major role in the response of hypoxic cells, irradiated either alone or in the presence of misonidazole

  2. Prognostic factors and survival in primary malignant astrocytomas of the spinal cord: a population-based analysis from 1973 to 2007.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Hadie; Avendaño, Javier; Raza, Shaan M; Gokaslan, Ziya L; Jallo, George I; Quiñones-Hinojosa, Alfredo

    2012-05-20

    Observational cross-sectional study. Using data from the population-based cancer registries of the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results (SEER) program, we analyzed demographic features, tumor and treatment characteristics, as well as survival rates in patients with primary malignant astrocytomas of the spinal cord (PMASC). PMASC is a rare neoplasm and is considered to carry the same dismal outcome as their cerebral counterparts. Our current knowledge is incomplete, and understanding the epidemiology, diagnosis, and optimal treatment still poses challenges. The SEER data from 1973 to 2007 were reviewed for pathologically confirmed primary anaplastic astrocytomas (AA) and glioblastomas of the spinal cord (C72.0). We compared the clinical features and outcomes of the cohort in uni- and multivariate fashion. Survival was calculated and compared using Kaplan-Meier curves and log-rank analysis. Our search criteria retrieved 135 patients diagnosed with PMASC. The median survival for PMASC was 13 months with 1-, 2-, and 5-year survival rates of 51.8%, 32.2%, and 18.7%. Patient diagnosed with AA had a median survival time of 17 months versus 10 months in patients diagnosed with glioblastomas. Adult patients observed markedly prolonged survival compared with the pediatric group, with a 16-month versus 9-month median survival, respectively. Multivariate analysis revealed age at diagnosis, pediatric and adult age groups, sex, tumor histology, and extent of resection as significant predictors of survival. Interestingly, outcomes did not significantly change throughout the last decades or by receiving radiotherapy. Outcome for patients diagnosed with PMASC remains poor and presents an ongoing challenge for professionals in the field of neurospinal medicine and surgery. In our analyses of AA, adult patients, males, and patients undergoing radical resections were associated with increased survival. However, incidence of these lesions is low; hence, building strong

  3. Model-based methodology to develop the isochronous stress-strain curves for modified 9Cr steels

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Sung Ho; Lee, Chan Bock; Jung, Ik Hee

    2008-01-01

    Since high temperature materials are designed with a target life based on a specified amount of allowable strain and stress, their Isochronous Stress-Strain Curves (ISSC) are needed to avoid an excessive deformation during an intended service life. In this paper, a model-based methodology to develop the isochronous curves for a G91 steel is described. Creep strain-time curves were reviewed for typical high-temperature materials, and Garofalo's model which conforms well to the primary and secondary creep stages was proper for the G91 steel. Procedures to obtain an instantaneous elastic-plastic strain, ε i were given in detail. Also, to accurately determine the P 1 , P 2 and P 3 parameters in the Garofalo's model, a Nonlinear Least Square Fitting (NLSF) method was adopted and useful. The long-term creep curves for the G91 steel can be modeled by the Garofalo's model, and the long-term ISSCs can be developed using the modeled creep curves

  4. Going Beyond, Going Further: The Preparation of Acid-Base Titration Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McClendon, Michael

    1984-01-01

    Background information, list of materials needed, and procedures used are provided for a simple technique for generating mechanically plotted acid-base titration curves. The method is suitable for second-year high school chemistry students. (JN)

  5. Influence of preirradiational and postirradiational heating of lyophilized Micrococcus radioproteolyticus cells on their survival

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ryznar, L; Drasil, V [Ceskoslovenska Akademie Ved, Brno. Biofysikalni Ustav

    1981-12-10

    The survival curve of Micrococcus radioproteolyticus following gamma irradiation of lyophilized cells is characterized by a broad shoulder reaching as far as the dose range 10 - 20 kGy (1 - 2 Mrad). The course of the curve indicates that under these conditions most of the changes induced by irradiation have the character of sublethal damage, which the cell can repair. The course of the survival curve does not change if the lyophilized cells are heated prior to irradiation for 2 h at 60 /sup 0/C. Certain changes do occur if the preirradiational temperature is 80 /sup 0/C. If the cells are exposed to increased temperature after irradiation even a temperature of 60 /sup 0/C brings about a marked decrease in survival. A temperature of 80 /sup 0/C after irradiation leads to extensive changes in the shape of survival curves, which are characterized by a narrowing or even disappearing of the shoulders. It can be concluded from the results obtained that an increased temperature modifies the capability of irradiated lyophilized cells to repair radiation damage.

  6. Influence of preirradiational and postirradiational heating of lyophilized Micrococcus radioproteolyticus cells on their survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ryznar, L.; Drasil, V.

    1981-01-01

    The survival curve of Micrococcus radioproteolyticus following gamma irradiation of lyophilized cells is characterized by a broad shoulder reaching as far as the dose range 10 - 20 kGy (1 - 2 Mrad). The course of the curve indicates that under these conditions most of the changes induced by irradiation have the character of sublethal damage, which the cell can repair. The course of the survival curve does not change if the lyophilized cells are heated prior to irradiation for 2 h at 60 0 C. Certain changes do occur if the preirradiational temperature is 80 0 C. If the cells are exposed to increased temperature after irradiation even a temperature of 60 0 C brings about a marked decrease in survival. A temperature of 80 0 C after irradiation leads to extensive changes in the shape of survival curves, which are characterized by a narrowing or even disappearing of the shoulders. It can be concluded from the results obtained that an increased temperature modifies the capability of irradiated lyophilized cells to repair radiation damage. (author)

  7. Automated pavement horizontal curve measurement methods based on inertial measurement unit and 3D profiling data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wenting Luo

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Pavement horizontal curve is designed to serve as a transition between straight segments, and its presence may cause a series of driving-related safety issues to motorists and drivers. As is recognized that traditional methods for curve geometry investigation are time consuming, labor intensive, and inaccurate, this study attempts to develop a method that can automatically conduct horizontal curve identification and measurement at network level. The digital highway data vehicle (DHDV was utilized for data collection, in which three Euler angles, driving speed, and acceleration of survey vehicle were measured with an inertial measurement unit (IMU. The 3D profiling data used for cross slope calibration was obtained with PaveVision3D Ultra technology at 1 mm resolution. In this study, the curve identification was based on the variation of heading angle, and the curve radius was calculated with kinematic method, geometry method, and lateral acceleration method. In order to verify the accuracy of the three methods, the analysis of variance (ANOVA test was applied by using the control variable of curve radius measured by field test. Based on the measured curve radius, a curve safety analysis model was used to predict the crash rates and safe driving speeds at horizontal curves. Finally, a case study on 4.35 km road segment demonstrated that the proposed method could efficiently conduct network level analysis.

  8. A versatile curve-fit model for linear to deeply concave rank abundance curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Neuteboom, J.H.; Struik, P.C.

    2005-01-01

    A new, flexible curve-fit model for linear to concave rank abundance curves was conceptualized and validated using observational data. The model links the geometric-series model and log-series model and can also fit deeply concave rank abundance curves. The model is based ¿ in an unconventional way

  9. Survival rate of breast cancer patients in Malaysia: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abdullah, Nor Aini; Wan Mahiyuddin, Wan Rozita; Muhammad, Nor Asiah; Ali, Zainudin Mohamad; Ibrahim, Lailanor; Ibrahim Tamim, Nor Saleha; Mustafa, Amal Nasir; Kamaluddin, Muhammad Amir

    2013-01-01

    Breast cancer is the most common cancer among Malaysian women. Other than hospital-based results, there are no documented population-based survival rates of Malaysian women for breast cancers. This population- based retrospective cohort study was therefore conducted. Data were obtained from Health Informatics Centre, Ministry of Health Malaysia, National Cancer Registry and National Registration Department for the period from 1st Jan 2000 to 31st December 2005. Cases were captured by ICD-10 and linked to death certificates to identify the status. Only complete data were analysed. Survival time was calculated from the estimated date of diagnosis to the date of death or date of loss to follow-up. Observed survival rates were estimated by Kaplan- Meier method using SPSS Statistical Software version 17. A total of 10,230 complete data sets were analysed. The mean age at diagnosis was 50.6 years old. The overall 5-year survival rate was 49% with median survival time of 68.1 months. Indian women had a higher survival rate of 54% compared to Chinese women (49%) and Malays (45%). The overall 5-year survival rate of breast cancer patient among Malaysian women was still low for the cohort of 2000 to 2005 as compared to survival rates in developed nations. Therefore, it is necessary to enhance the strategies for early detection and intervention.

  10. Enhancement of global flood damage assessments using building material based vulnerability curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Englhardt, Johanna; de Ruiter, Marleen; de Moel, Hans; Aerts, Jeroen

    2017-04-01

    This study discusses the development of an enhanced approach for flood damage and risk assessments using vulnerability curves that are based on building material information. The approach draws upon common practices in earthquake vulnerability assessments, and is an alternative for land-use or building occupancy approach in flood risk assessment models. The approach is of particular importance for studies where there is a large variation in building material, such as large scale studies or studies in developing countries. A case study of Ethiopia is used to demonstrate the impact of the different methodological approaches on direct damage assessments due to flooding. Generally, flood damage assessments use damage curves for different land-use or occupancy types (i.e. urban or residential and commercial classes). However, these categories do not necessarily relate directly to vulnerability of damage by flood waters. For this, the construction type and building material may be more important, as is used in earthquake risk assessments. For this study, we use building material classification data of the PAGER1 project to define new building material based vulnerability classes for flood damage. This approach will be compared to the widely applied land-use based vulnerability curves such as used by De Moel et al. (2011). The case of Ethiopia demonstrates and compares the feasibility of this novel flood vulnerability method on a country level which holds the potential to be scaled up to a global level. The study shows that flood vulnerability based on building material also allows for better differentiation between flood damage in urban and rural settings, opening doors to better link to poverty studies when such exposure data is available. Furthermore, this new approach paves the road to the enhancement of multi-risk assessments as the method enables the comparison of vulnerability across different natural hazard types that also use material-based vulnerability curves

  11. Satellite altimetry based rating curves throughout the entire Amazon basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, A.; Calmant, S.; Paiva, R. C.; Collischonn, W.; Silva, J. S.; Bonnet, M.; Seyler, F.

    2013-05-01

    The Amazonian basin is the largest hydrological basin all over the world. In the recent past years, the basin has experienced an unusual succession of extreme draughts and floods, which origin is still a matter of debate. Yet, the amount of data available is poor, both over time and space scales, due to factor like basin's size, access difficulty and so on. One of the major locks is to get discharge series distributed over the entire basin. Satellite altimetry can be used to improve our knowledge of the hydrological stream flow conditions in the basin, through rating curves. Rating curves are mathematical relationships between stage and discharge at a given place. The common way to determine the parameters of the relationship is to compute the non-linear regression between the discharge and stage series. In this study, the discharge data was obtained by simulation through the entire basin using the MGB-IPH model with TRMM Merge input rainfall data and assimilation of gage data, run from 1998 to 2010. The stage dataset is made of ~800 altimetry series at ENVISAT and JASON-2 virtual stations. Altimetry series span between 2002 and 2010. In the present work we present the benefits of using stochastic methods instead of probabilistic ones to determine a dataset of rating curve parameters which are consistent throughout the entire Amazon basin. The rating curve parameters have been computed using a parameter optimization technique based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo sampler and Bayesian inference scheme. This technique provides an estimate of the best parameters for the rating curve, but also their posterior probability distribution, allowing the determination of a credibility interval for the rating curve. Also is included in the rating curve determination the error over discharges estimates from the MGB-IPH model. These MGB-IPH errors come from either errors in the discharge derived from the gage readings or errors in the satellite rainfall estimates. The present

  12. Intracellular contacts - effect of survival curve of mammal cells on the Dq value

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Durand, R.E.; Sutherland, R.M.

    1980-01-01

    Survival increase is observed in cells of the Chinese hamster of the V79-171 line which grow in the composition of multicell spheroids as compared with the survival after irradiation in a single state. The ratio of the Dsub(q) cell value in the composition of spheroids to Dsub(q) of separately growing cells increases as the mitotic cycle proceeds from the minimum value of 1.3 for cells in the Gi phase to the maximum value of 2.2 for cells in a late S-phase. The increase of survival during growth in the composition of spheroids is not characteristic for all cell types. Only a part of cultured MNNG-mutants of cells of the V79-171 Chinese hamster reveal radiomodifying effect of cell contact acting [ru

  13. Proposal of fatigue crack growth rate curve in air for nickel-base alloys used in BWR

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ogawa, Takuya; Itatani, Masao; Nagase, Hiroshi; Aoike, Satoru; Yoneda, Hideki

    2013-01-01

    When the defects are detected in the nuclear components in Japan, structural integrity assessment should be performed for the technical judgment on continuous service based on the Rules on Fitness-for-Service for Nuclear Power Plants of the Japan Society of Mechanical Engineers Code (JSME FFS Code). Fatigue crack growth analysis is required when the cyclic loading would be applied for the components. Recently, fatigue crack growth rate curve in air environment for Nickel-base alloys weld metal used in BWR was proposed by the authors and it was adopted as a code case of JSME FFS Code to evaluate the embedded flaw. In this study, fatigue crack growth behavior for heat-affected zone (HAZ) of Nickel-base alloys in air was investigated. And a unified fatigue crack growth rate curve in air for HAZ and weld metal of Nickel-base alloys used in BWR was evaluated. As a result, it was found that the curve for weld metal could be applied as a curve for both HAZ and weld metal since moderately conservative assessment of fatigue crack growth rate of HAZ is possible by the curve for weld metal in the Paris region. And the threshold value of stress intensity far range (ΔK th ) is determined to 3.0 MPa√m based on the fatigue crack growth rate of HAZ. (author)

  14. Survival and mortality among users and non-users of hydroxyurea with sickle cell disease.

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Araujo, Olinda Maria Rodrigues; Ivo, Maria Lúcia; Ferreira Júnior, Marcos Antonio; Pontes, Elenir Rose Jardim Cury; Bispo, Ieda Maria Gonçalves Pacce; de Oliveira, Eveny Cristine Luna

    2015-01-01

    to estimate survival, mortality and cause of death among users or not of hydroxyurea with sickle cell disease. cohort study with retrospective data collection, from 1980 to 2010 of patients receiving inpatient treatment in two Brazilian public hospitals. The survival probability was determined using the Kaplan-Meier estimator, survival calculations (SPSS version 10.0), comparison between survival curves, using the log rank method. The level of significance was p=0.05. of 63 patients, 87% had sickle cell anemia, with 39 using hydroxyurea, with a mean time of use of the drug of 20.0±10.0 years and a mean dose of 17.37±5.4 to 20.94±7.2 mg/kg/day, raising the fetal hemoglobin. In the comparison between those using hydroxyurea and those not, the survival curve was greater among the users (p=0.014). A total of 10 deaths occurred, with a mean age of 28.1 years old, and with Acute Respiratory Failure as the main cause. the survival curve is greater among the users of hydroxyurea. The results indicate the importance of the nurse incorporating therapeutic advances of hydroxyurea in her care actions.

  15. Imprecise system reliability and component importance based on survival signature

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng, Geng; Patelli, Edoardo; Beer, Michael; Coolen, Frank P.A.

    2016-01-01

    The concept of the survival signature has recently attracted increasing attention for performing reliability analysis on systems with multiple types of components. It opens a new pathway for a structured approach with high computational efficiency based on a complete probabilistic description of the system. In practical applications, however, some of the parameters of the system might not be defined completely due to limited data, which implies the need to take imprecisions of component specifications into account. This paper presents a methodology to include explicitly the imprecision, which leads to upper and lower bounds of the survival function of the system. In addition, the approach introduces novel and efficient component importance measures. By implementing relative importance index of each component without or with imprecision, the most critical component in the system can be identified depending on the service time of the system. Simulation method based on survival signature is introduced to deal with imprecision within components, which is precise and efficient. Numerical example is presented to show the applicability of the approach for systems. - Highlights: • Survival signature is a novel way for system reliability and component importance • High computational efficiency based on a complete description of system. • Include explicitly the imprecision, which leads to bounds of the survival function. • A novel relative importance index is proposed as importance measure. • Allows to identify critical components depending on the service time of the system.

  16. Statistical data processing of mobility curves of univalent weak bases

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Šlampová, Andrea; Boček, Petr

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 29, č. 2 (2008), s. 538-541 ISSN 0173-0835 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR IAA400310609; GA ČR GA203/05/2106 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z40310501 Keywords : mobility curve * univalent weak bases * statistical evaluation Subject RIV: CB - Analytical Chemistry, Separation Impact factor: 3.509, year: 2008

  17. A nomogram for predicting survival in patients with breast cancer brain metastasis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Zhou; Sun, Bing; Wu, Shikai; Meng, Xiangying; Cong, Yang; Shen, Ge; Song, Santai

    2018-05-01

    Brain metastasis (BM) is common in patients with breast cancer. Predicting patient survival is critical for the clinical management of breast cancer brain metastasis (BCBM). The present study was designed to develop and evaluate a prognostic model for patients with newly diagnosed BCBM. Based on the clinical data of patients with BCBM treated in the Affiliated Hospital of Academy of Military Medical Sciences (Beijing, China) between 2002 and 2014, a nomogram was developed to predict survival using proportional hazards regression analysis. The model was validated internally by bootstrapping, and the concordance index (c-index) was calculated. A calibration curve and c-index were used to evaluate discriminatory and predictive ability, in order to compare the nomogram with widely used models, including recursive partitioning analysis (RPA), graded prognostic assessment (GPA) and breast-graded prognostic assessment (Breast-GPA). A total of 411 patients with BCBM were included in the development of this predictive model. The median overall survival time was 14.1 months. Statistically significant predictors for patient survival included biological subtype, Karnofsky performance score, leptomeningeal metastasis, extracranial metastasis, the number of brain metastases and disease-free survival. A nomogram for predicting 1- and 2-year overall survival rates was constructed, which exhibited good accuracy in predicting overall survival with a concordance index of 0.735. This model outperformed RPA, GPA and Breast-GPA, based on the comparisons of the c-indexes. The nomogram constructed based on a multiple factor analysis was able to more accurately predict the individual survival probability of patients with BCBM, compared with existing models.

  18. Trajectory Optimization of Spray Painting Robot for Complex Curved Surface Based on Exponential Mean Bézier Method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wei Chen

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Automated tool trajectory planning for spray painting robots is still a challenging problem, especially for a large complex curved surface. This paper presents a new method of trajectory optimization for spray painting robot based on exponential mean Bézier method. The definition and the three theorems of exponential mean Bézier curves are discussed. Then a spatial painting path generation method based on exponential mean Bézier curves is developed. A new simple algorithm for trajectory optimization on complex curved surfaces is introduced. A golden section method is adopted to calculate the values. The experimental results illustrate that the exponential mean Bézier curves enhanced flexibility of the path planning, and the trajectory optimization algorithm achieved satisfactory performance. This method can also be extended to other applications.

  19. Survival of Patients With Cervical Cancer in Rural India

    OpenAIRE

    Vinoda Thulaseedharan, Jissa; Malila, Nea; Swaminathan, Rajaraman; Esmy Pulikottil, Okuru; Hakama, Matti; Muwonge, Richard; Sankaranarayanan, Rengaswamy

    2015-01-01

    Background: Patients’ survival after diagnosis of cervical cancer is indirectly influenced by socio-economic factors. We evaluated this survival and its socio-economic determinants in a rural population in south India. Methods: We assessed 165 women diagnosed with cervical cancer from the routine care control arm of a randomized screening trial conducted in rural south India. Kaplan-Meier curves were plotted to illustrate the observed survival of cancer patients. The effect of socio-econom...

  20. Extended-Search, Bézier Curve-Based Lane Detection and Reconstruction System for an Intelligent Vehicle

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiaoyun Huang

    2015-09-01

    Full Text Available To improve the real-time performance and detection rate of a Lane Detection and Reconstruction (LDR system, an extended-search-based lane detection method and a Bézier curve-based lane reconstruction algorithm are proposed in this paper. The extended-search-based lane detection method is designed to search boundary blocks from the initial position, in an upwards direction and along the lane, with small search areas including continuous search, discontinuous search and bending search in order to detect different lane boundaries. The Bézier curve-based lane reconstruction algorithm is employed to describe a wide range of lane boundary forms with comparatively simple expressions. In addition, two Bézier curves are adopted to reconstruct the lanes' outer boundaries with large curvature variation. The lane detection and reconstruction algorithm — including initial-blocks' determining, extended search, binarization processing and lane boundaries' fitting in different scenarios — is verified in road tests. The results show that this algorithm is robust against different shadows and illumination variations; the average processing time per frame is 13 ms. Significantly, it presents an 88.6% high-detection rate on curved lanes with large or variable curvatures, where the accident rate is higher than that of straight lanes.

  1. SU-E-T-427: Cell Surviving Fractions Derived From Tumor-Volume Variation During Radiotherapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Comparison with Predictive Assays

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chvetsov, A; Schwartz, J; Mayr, N [University of Washington, Seattle, WA (United States); Yartsev, S [London Health Sciences Centre, London, Ontario (Canada)

    2014-06-01

    Purpose: To show that a distribution of cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} in a heterogeneous group of patients can be derived from tumor-volume variation curves during radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer. Methods: Our analysis was based on two data sets of tumor-volume variation curves for heterogeneous groups of 17 patients treated for nonsmall cell lung cancer with conventional dose fractionation. The data sets were obtained previously at two independent institutions by using megavoltage (MV) computed tomography (CT). Statistical distributions of cell surviving fractions S{sup 2} and cell clearance half-lives of lethally damaged cells T1/2 have been reconstructed in each patient group by using a version of the two-level cell population tumor response model and a simulated annealing algorithm. The reconstructed statistical distributions of the cell surviving fractions have been compared to the distributions measured using predictive assays in vitro. Results: Non-small cell lung cancer presents certain difficulties for modeling surviving fractions using tumor-volume variation curves because of relatively large fractional hypoxic volume, low gradient of tumor-volume response, and possible uncertainties due to breathing motion. Despite these difficulties, cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} for non-small cell lung cancer derived from tumor-volume variation measured at different institutions have similar probability density functions (PDFs) with mean values of 0.30 and 0.43 and standard deviations of 0.13 and 0.18, respectively. The PDFs for cell surviving fractions S{sup 2} reconstructed from tumor volume variation agree with the PDF measured in vitro. Comparison of the reconstructed cell surviving fractions with patient survival data shows that the patient survival time decreases as the cell surviving fraction increases. Conclusion: The data obtained in this work suggests that the cell surviving fractions S{sub 2} can be reconstructed from the tumor volume

  2. SU-E-T-427: Cell Surviving Fractions Derived From Tumor-Volume Variation During Radiotherapy for Non-Small Cell Lung Cancer: Comparison with Predictive Assays

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chvetsov, A; Schwartz, J; Mayr, N; Yartsev, S

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: To show that a distribution of cell surviving fractions S 2 in a heterogeneous group of patients can be derived from tumor-volume variation curves during radiotherapy for non-small cell lung cancer. Methods: Our analysis was based on two data sets of tumor-volume variation curves for heterogeneous groups of 17 patients treated for nonsmall cell lung cancer with conventional dose fractionation. The data sets were obtained previously at two independent institutions by using megavoltage (MV) computed tomography (CT). Statistical distributions of cell surviving fractions S 2 and cell clearance half-lives of lethally damaged cells T1/2 have been reconstructed in each patient group by using a version of the two-level cell population tumor response model and a simulated annealing algorithm. The reconstructed statistical distributions of the cell surviving fractions have been compared to the distributions measured using predictive assays in vitro. Results: Non-small cell lung cancer presents certain difficulties for modeling surviving fractions using tumor-volume variation curves because of relatively large fractional hypoxic volume, low gradient of tumor-volume response, and possible uncertainties due to breathing motion. Despite these difficulties, cell surviving fractions S 2 for non-small cell lung cancer derived from tumor-volume variation measured at different institutions have similar probability density functions (PDFs) with mean values of 0.30 and 0.43 and standard deviations of 0.13 and 0.18, respectively. The PDFs for cell surviving fractions S 2 reconstructed from tumor volume variation agree with the PDF measured in vitro. Comparison of the reconstructed cell surviving fractions with patient survival data shows that the patient survival time decreases as the cell surviving fraction increases. Conclusion: The data obtained in this work suggests that the cell surviving fractions S 2 can be reconstructed from the tumor volume variation curves measured

  3. Using Survival Analysis to Evaluate Medical Equipment Battery Life.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuhajda, David

    2016-01-01

    As hospital medical device managers obtain more data, opportunities exist for using the data to improve medical device management, enhance patient safety, and evaluate costs of decisions. As a demonstration of the ability to use data analytics, this article applies survival analysis statistical techniques to assist in making decisions on medical equipment maintenance. The analysis was performed on a large amount of data related to failures of an infusion pump manufacturer's lithium battery and two aftermarket replacement lithium batteries from one hospital facility. The survival analysis resulted in statistical evidence showing that one of the third-party batteries had a lower survival curve than the infusion pump manufacturer's battery. This lower survival curve translates to a shorter expected life before replacement is needed. The data suggested that to limit unexpected failures, replacing batteries at a two-year interval, rather than the current industry recommendation of three years, may be warranted. For less than $5,400 in additional annual cost, the risk of unexpected battery failures can be reduced from an estimated 28% to an estimated 7%.

  4. Refined tropical curve counts and canonical bases for quantum cluster algebras

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mandel, Travis

    We express the (quantizations of the) Gross-Hacking-Keel-Kontsevich canonical bases for cluster algebras in terms of certain (Block-Göttsche) weighted counts of tropical curves. In the process, we obtain via scattering diagram techniques a new invariance result for these Block-Göttsche counts....

  5. Analytical expression for initial magnetization curve of Fe-based soft magnetic composite material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Birčáková, Zuzana, E-mail: zuzana.bircakova@upjs.sk [Institute of Physics, Faculty of Science, Pavol Jozef Šafárik University, Park Angelinum 9, 04154 Košice (Slovakia); Kollár, Peter; Füzer, Ján [Institute of Physics, Faculty of Science, Pavol Jozef Šafárik University, Park Angelinum 9, 04154 Košice (Slovakia); Bureš, Radovan; Fáberová, Mária [Institute of Materials Research, Slovak Academy of Sciences, Watsonova 47, 04001 Košice (Slovakia)

    2017-02-01

    The analytical expression for the initial magnetization curve for Fe-phenolphormaldehyde resin composite material was derived based on the already proposed ideas of the magnetization vector deviation function and the domain wall annihilation function, characterizing the reversible magnetization processes through the extent of deviation of magnetization vectors from magnetic field direction and the irreversible processes through the effective numbers of movable domain walls, respectively. As for composite materials the specific dependences of these functions were observed, the ideas were extended meeting the composites special features, which are principally the much higher inner demagnetizing fields produced by magnetic poles on ferromagnetic particle surfaces. The proposed analytical expression enables us to find the relative extent of each type of magnetization processes when magnetizing a specimen along the initial curve. - Highlights: • Analytical expression of the initial curve derived for SMC. • Initial curve described by elementary magnetization processes. • Influence of inner demagnetizing fields on magnetization process in SMC.

  6. The statistical treatment of cell survival data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Boag, J.W.

    1975-01-01

    The paper considers the sources of experimental error in cell survival experiments and discusses in simple terms how these combine to influence the accuracy of single points and the parameters of complete survival curves. Cell sampling and medium-dilution errors are discussed at length and one way of minimizing the former is examined. The Monte-Carlo method of estimating the distribution of derived parameters in small samples is recommended and illustrated. (author)

  7. Point- and curve-based geometric conflation

    KAUST Repository

    Ló pez-Vá zquez, C.; Manso Callejo, M.A.

    2013-01-01

    Geometric conflation is the process undertaken to modify the coordinates of features in dataset A in order to match corresponding ones in dataset B. The overwhelming majority of the literature considers the use of points as features to define the transformation. In this article we present a procedure to consider one-dimensional curves also, which are commonly available as Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) tracks, routes, coastlines, and so on, in order to define the estimate of the displacements to be applied to each object in A. The procedure involves three steps, including the partial matching of corresponding curves, the computation of some analytical expression, and the addition of a correction term in order to satisfy basic cartographic rules. A numerical example is presented. © 2013 Copyright Taylor and Francis Group, LLC.

  8. A spatial scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhatt, Vijaya; Tiwari, Neeraj

    2014-05-20

    The spatial scan statistic has been developed as a geographical cluster detection analysis tool for different types of data sets such as Bernoulli, Poisson, ordinal, normal and exponential. We propose a scan statistic for survival data based on Weibull distribution. It may also be used for other survival distributions, such as exponential, gamma, and log normal. The proposed method is applied on the survival data of tuberculosis patients for the years 2004-2005 in Nainital district of Uttarakhand, India. Simulation studies reveal that the proposed method performs well for different survival distribution functions. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  9. Curve Evolution in Subspaces and Exploring the Metameric Class of Histogram of Gradient Orientation based Features using Nonlinear Projection Methods

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tatu, Aditya Jayant

    This thesis deals with two unrelated issues, restricting curve evolution to subspaces and computing image patches in the equivalence class of Histogram of Gradient orientation based features using nonlinear projection methods. Curve evolution is a well known method used in various applications like...... tracking interfaces, active contour based segmentation methods and others. It can also be used to study shape spaces, as deforming a shape can be thought of as evolving its boundary curve. During curve evolution a curve traces out a path in the infinite dimensional space of curves. Due to application...... specific requirements like shape priors or a given data model, and due to limitations of the computer, the computed curve evolution forms a path in some finite dimensional subspace of the space of curves. We give methods to restrict the curve evolution to a finite dimensional linear or implicitly defined...

  10. Determination of critical nitrogen dilution curve based on stem dry matter in rice.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Syed Tahir Ata-Ul-Karim

    Full Text Available Plant analysis is a very promising diagnostic tool for assessment of crop nitrogen (N requirements in perspectives of cost effective and environment friendly agriculture. Diagnosing N nutritional status of rice crop through plant analysis will give insights into optimizing N requirements of future crops. The present study was aimed to develop a new methodology for determining the critical nitrogen (Nc dilution curve based on stem dry matter (SDM and to assess its suitability to estimate the level of N nutrition for rice (Oryza sativa L. in east China. Three field experiments with varied N rates (0-360 kg N ha(-1 using three Japonica rice hybrids, Lingxiangyou-18, Wuxiangjing-14 and Wuyunjing were conducted in Jiangsu province of east China. SDM and stem N concentration (SNC were determined during vegetative stage for growth analysis. A Nc dilution curve based on SDM was described by the equation (Nc = 2.17W(-0.27 with W being SDM in t ha(-1, when SDM ranged from 0.88 to 7.94 t ha(-1. However, for SDM < 0.88 t ha(-1, the constant critical value Nc = 1.76% SDM was applied. The curve was dually validated for N-limiting and non-N-limiting growth conditions. The N nutrition index (NNI and accumulated N deficit (Nand of stem ranged from 0.57 to 1.06 and 51.1 to -7.07 kg N ha(-1, respectively, during key growth stages under varied N rates in 2010 and 2011. The values of ΔN derived from either NNI or Nand could be used as references for N dressing management during rice growth. Our results demonstrated that the present curve well differentiated the conditions of limiting and non-limiting N nutrition in rice crop. The SDM based Nc dilution curve can be adopted as an alternate and novel approach for evaluating plant N status to support N fertilization decision during the vegetative growth of Japonica rice in east China.

  11. Estimating the average treatment effect on survival based on observational data and using partly conditional modeling.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gong, Qi; Schaubel, Douglas E

    2017-03-01

    Treatments are frequently evaluated in terms of their effect on patient survival. In settings where randomization of treatment is not feasible, observational data are employed, necessitating correction for covariate imbalances. Treatments are usually compared using a hazard ratio. Most existing methods which quantify the treatment effect through the survival function are applicable to treatments assigned at time 0. In the data structure of our interest, subjects typically begin follow-up untreated; time-until-treatment, and the pretreatment death hazard are both heavily influenced by longitudinal covariates; and subjects may experience periods of treatment ineligibility. We propose semiparametric methods for estimating the average difference in restricted mean survival time attributable to a time-dependent treatment, the average effect of treatment among the treated, under current treatment assignment patterns. The pre- and posttreatment models are partly conditional, in that they use the covariate history up to the time of treatment. The pre-treatment model is estimated through recently developed landmark analysis methods. For each treated patient, fitted pre- and posttreatment survival curves are projected out, then averaged in a manner which accounts for the censoring of treatment times. Asymptotic properties are derived and evaluated through simulation. The proposed methods are applied to liver transplant data in order to estimate the effect of liver transplantation on survival among transplant recipients under current practice patterns. © 2016, The International Biometric Society.

  12. An Approach of Estimating Individual Growth Curves for Young Thoroughbred Horses Based on Their Birthdays

    Science.gov (United States)

    ONODA, Tomoaki; YAMAMOTO, Ryuta; SAWAMURA, Kyohei; MURASE, Harutaka; NAMBO, Yasuo; INOUE, Yoshinobu; MATSUI, Akira; MIYAKE, Takeshi; HIRAI, Nobuhiro

    2014-01-01

    ABSTRACT We propose an approach of estimating individual growth curves based on the birthday information of Japanese Thoroughbred horses, with considerations of the seasonal compensatory growth that is a typical characteristic of seasonal breeding animals. The compensatory growth patterns appear during only the winter and spring seasons in the life of growing horses, and the meeting point between winter and spring depends on the birthday of each horse. We previously developed new growth curve equations for Japanese Thoroughbreds adjusting for compensatory growth. Based on the equations, a parameter denoting the birthday information was added for the modeling of the individual growth curves for each horse by shifting the meeting points in the compensatory growth periods. A total of 5,594 and 5,680 body weight and age measurements of Thoroughbred colts and fillies, respectively, and 3,770 withers height and age measurements of both sexes were used in the analyses. The results of predicted error difference and Akaike Information Criterion showed that the individual growth curves using birthday information better fit to the body weight and withers height data than not using them. The individual growth curve for each horse would be a useful tool for the feeding managements of young Japanese Thoroughbreds in compensatory growth periods. PMID:25013356

  13. Postoperative serum CEA level as predictive factor for survival in patients with colorectal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lemberger, J.J.; Bogar, M.L.; Takacs Kucsera, M.F.; Csernetics, I.F.

    2002-01-01

    Aim: It is known that routine follow-up of patients with resected colorectal cancer includes serial CEA determinations. In this retrospective study we have investigated relationship between CEA level and survival and whether achieved results enable differentiation of tumors with slow and rapid growth. Material and Methods: Mainly between 1995 and 1999 periodic CEA determination by IRMA were performed in 269 patients after curative resection of colorectal carcinoma. Number of CEA determination/patient were 2-16(median 6). Survival ranged 4,5 and>249,7 months. Based on CEA results patients were divided in group with normal (<10ng/ml) and elevated (=10ng/ml) values regardless of postoperative treatment. Survival curves were computed by Kaplan-Meier method and difference was evaluated by logrank test and difference between proportions. Results:Normal end elevated CEA was found in 193 and 76 patients, respectively. The difference of survival curves between patients with normal and elevated CEA are highly significant (p<0,0001). However, only 10 months after tumor resection is the difference between survived proportions significant suggesting already presence of CEA produced micrometastases contributing to progression of neoplastic process. The mean survival time at normal and elevated CEA values are 142,54±17,86(median 128,60±24,04) and 34,15±4,28 (median 25,20±1,97) months, respectively. No significant difference of survival was found regarding tumor localization. Conclusion:The results show that with regard to CEA level it is possible to divide colorectal tumors on marker negative and positive. Marker negative are with slower growth and relatively good prognosis. Marker positive are associated with elevated CEA level and with considerable shorter survival. Postoperative CEA level is valuable parameter in prediction of patient's outcome

  14. THE CPA QUALIFICATION METHOD BASED ON THE GAUSSIAN CURVE FITTING

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M.T. Adithia

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The Correlation Power Analysis (CPA attack is an attack on cryptographic devices, especially smart cards. The results of the attack are correlation traces. Based on the correlation traces, an evaluation is done to observe whether significant peaks appear in the traces or not. The evaluation is done manually, by experts. If significant peaks appear then the smart card is not considered secure since it is assumed that the secret key is revealed. We develop a method that objectively detects peaks and decides which peak is significant. We conclude that using the Gaussian curve fitting method, the subjective qualification of the peak significance can be objectified. Thus, better decisions can be taken by security experts. We also conclude that the Gaussian curve fitting method is able to show the influence of peak sizes, especially the width and height, to a significance of a particular peak.

  15. Deep learning predictions of survival based on MRI in amyotrophic lateral sclerosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    van der Burgh, Hannelore K; Schmidt, Ruben; Westeneng, Henk-Jan; de Reus, Marcel A; van den Berg, Leonard H; van den Heuvel, Martijn P

    2017-01-01

    Amyotrophic lateral sclerosis (ALS) is a progressive neuromuscular disease, with large variation in survival between patients. Currently, it remains rather difficult to predict survival based on clinical parameters alone. Here, we set out to use clinical characteristics in combination with MRI data to predict survival of ALS patients using deep learning, a machine learning technique highly effective in a broad range of big-data analyses. A group of 135 ALS patients was included from whom high-resolution diffusion-weighted and T1-weighted images were acquired at the first visit to the outpatient clinic. Next, each of the patients was monitored carefully and survival time to death was recorded. Patients were labeled as short, medium or long survivors, based on their recorded time to death as measured from the time of disease onset. In the deep learning procedure, the total group of 135 patients was split into a training set for deep learning (n = 83 patients), a validation set (n = 20) and an independent evaluation set (n = 32) to evaluate the performance of the obtained deep learning networks. Deep learning based on clinical characteristics predicted survival category correctly in 68.8% of the cases. Deep learning based on MRI predicted 62.5% correctly using structural connectivity and 62.5% using brain morphology data. Notably, when we combined the three sources of information, deep learning prediction accuracy increased to 84.4%. Taken together, our findings show the added value of MRI with respect to predicting survival in ALS, demonstrating the advantage of deep learning in disease prognostication.

  16. Survival prediction of trauma patients: a study on US National Trauma Data Bank.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sefrioui, I; Amadini, R; Mauro, J; El Fallahi, A; Gabbrielli, M

    2017-12-01

    Exceptional circumstances like major incidents or natural disasters may cause a huge number of victims that might not be immediately and simultaneously saved. In these cases it is important to define priorities avoiding to waste time and resources for not savable victims. Trauma and Injury Severity Score (TRISS) methodology is the well-known and standard system usually used by practitioners to predict the survival probability of trauma patients. However, practitioners have noted that the accuracy of TRISS predictions is unacceptable especially for severely injured patients. Thus, alternative methods should be proposed. In this work we evaluate different approaches for predicting whether a patient will survive or not according to simple and easily measurable observations. We conducted a rigorous, comparative study based on the most important prediction techniques using real clinical data of the US National Trauma Data Bank. Empirical results show that well-known Machine Learning classifiers can outperform the TRISS methodology. Based on our findings, we can say that the best approach we evaluated is Random Forest: it has the best accuracy, the best area under the curve, and k-statistic, as well as the second-best sensitivity and specificity. It has also a good calibration curve. Furthermore, its performance monotonically increases as the dataset size grows, meaning that it can be very effective to exploit incoming knowledge. Considering the whole dataset, it is always better than TRISS. Finally, we implemented a new tool to compute the survival of victims. This will help medical practitioners to obtain a better accuracy than the TRISS tools. Random Forests may be a good candidate solution for improving the predictions on survival upon the standard TRISS methodology.

  17. On the concept of survivability, with application to spacecraft and space-based networks

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Castet, Jean-Francois; Saleh, Joseph H.

    2012-01-01

    Survivability is an important attribute and requirement for military systems. Recently, survivability has become increasingly important for public infrastructure systems as well. In this work, we bring considerations of survivability to bear on space systems. We develop a conceptual framework and quantitative analyses based on stochastic Petri nets (SPN) to characterize and compare the survivability of different space architectures. The architectures here considered are a monolith spacecraft and a space-based network. To build the stochastic Petri net models for the degradations and failures of these two architectures, we conducted statistical analyses of historical multi-state failure data of spacecraft subsystems, and we assembled these subsystems, and their SPN models, in ways to create our monolith and networked systems. Preliminary results indicate, and quantify the extent to which, a space-based network is more survivable than the monolith spacecraft with respect to on-orbit anomalies and failures. For space systems, during the design and acquisition process, different architectures are benchmarked against several metrics; we argue that if survivability is not accounted for, then the evaluation process is likely to be biased in favor of the traditional dominant design, namely the monolith spacecraft. If however in a given context, survivability is a critical requirement for a customer, the survivability framework here proposed, and the stochastic modeling capability developed, can demonstrate the extent to which a networked space architecture may better satisfy this requirement than a monolith spacecraft. These results should be of interest to operators whose space assets require high levels of survivability, especially in the light of emerging threats.

  18. Survival response of RIF tumor cells to heat-x-radiation combinations: Parallel measurements in culture and by the excision assay

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Henle, K.J.; Nagle, W.A.; Moss, A.J.

    1984-01-01

    The cytotoxicity of heat-radiation (hX) combinations in vivo may differ from that measured in vitro. The authors have used the RIF tumor, grown in mouse feet, to compare the survival response after in situ hX-treatments with identical hX in vitro. The radiation survival curve, determined by the excision assay showed a slightly larger D/sub o/ than that measured in vitro (250, 200 rad, respective) and survival measurements appeared independent of excision time after irradiation. The 45 0 -heat survival curve was similar in both assays, but only when the excision followed immediately after h. A 24-hr delayed excision removed the shoulder and lowered survival 30-fold after either 20 or 30 min, 45 0 . Similar survival values were measured after 10 min, 45 0 +X (hX) in vitro and with immediate excision, although the excision survival curve had no shoulder and a D/sub o/ of 180 rad vs. 120 rad in vitro. The survival curve with delayed excision (24 hr) also appeared as a simple exponential curve with an apparent D/sub o/ of 310 rad (n=0.02). Two fractions of combined hX, separated by 24 hr (hx+24+hX), yielded D/sub o/=90 rad, D/sub q/=230 rad in vitro but 370 and 400 rad, respectively, when measured by delayed excision. The apparent radioresistance in vivo is consistent with data by Song of increased hypoxic fractions after heating in vivo and argues against combining hx in every fraction for optimal tumor control

  19. Improving village poultry's survival rate through community-based poultry health management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne; Koudande, Olorounto Delphin

    2012-01-01

    Community-based poultry health management (CBM) is a strategy for village poultry improvement based on the installment of “poultry interest groups” in experimental villages. These groups serve as a channel for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies. The use of CBM is due...... to the fact that village poultry farming is practiced in a total or partial scavenging system which gives the impression that all the birds in the village belong to the same flock. Accordingly, actions that target all farmers of the same village may have a larger impact on the village poultry's survival rate...... than actions that target individual producers. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of CBM on the survival rate of village poultry. Based on data collected on 353 poultry keepers, the study shows that CBM significantly improves the survival rate of village poultry. The adoption...

  20. Modelling of acid-base titration curves of mineral assemblages

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stamberg Karel

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The modelling of acid-base titration curves of mineral assemblages was studied with respect to basic parameters of their surface sites to be obtained. The known modelling approaches, component additivity (CA and generalized composite (GC, and three types of different assemblages (fucoidic sandstones, sedimentary rock-clay and bentonite-magnetite samples were used. In contrary to GC-approach, application of which was without difficulties, the problem of CA-one consisted in the credibility and accessibility of the parameters characterizing the individual mineralogical components.

  1. Survival and Growth of Cottonwood Clones After Angle Planting and Base Angle Treatments

    Science.gov (United States)

    W.K. Randall; Harvey E. Kennedy

    1976-01-01

    Presently, commercial cottonwood plantations in the lower Mississippi Valley are established using vertically planted, unrooted cuttings with a flat (90°) base. Neither survival nor first-year growth of a group of six Stoneville clones was improved by angle planting or cutting base angles diagonally. For one clone, survival was significantly better when base angle was...

  2. Single-dose-response curves of murine gastrointestinal crypt stem cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Masuda, K.; Withers, H.R.; Mason, K.A.; Chen, K.Y.

    1977-01-01

    Dose-response curves for the reproductive capacity of crypt stem cells of murine colonic, jejunal, and gastric mucosae exposed in situ to multifractionated gamma ray exposures were analyzed and single-dose-survival curves of these cells were constructed. The following conclusions were drawn: (1) The single-dose-response curves bend downward over a dose range of approximately 200 to 1500 rad; (2) cell death seems to be due to nonrepairable damage at doses less than 250 rad for colon, and 220 rad for jejunum; (3) there are 21, 110, and 140 stem cells per crypt of gastric, colonic, and jejunal mucosa, respectively; and (4) jejunal stem cells are the most radiosensitive and gastric mucosal stem cells are the most resistant

  3. Why the Kantian ideal survives medical learning curves, and why it matters.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brecher, B

    2006-09-01

    The "Kantian ideal" is often misunderstood as invoking individual autonomy rather than rational self legislation. Le Morvan and Stock's otherwise insightful discussion of "Medical learning curves and the Kantian ideal"--for example--draws the mistaken inference that that ideal is inconsistent with the realities of medical practice. But it is not. Rationally to be a patient entails accepting its necessary conditions.

  4. Diagnostic tests’ decision-making rules based upon analysis of ROC-curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Л. В. Батюк

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available In this paper we propose the model which substantiates diagnostics decision making based on the analysis of Receiver Operating Characteristic curves (ROC-curves and predicts optimal values of diagnostic indicators of biomedical information. To assess the quality of the test result prediction the standard criteria of the sensitivity and specificity of the model were used. Values of these criteria were calculated for the cases when the sensitivity of the test was greater than specificity by several times, when the number of correct diagnoses was maximal, when the sensitivity of the test was equal to its specificity and the sensitivity of the test was several times greater than the specificity of the test. To assess the significance of the factor characteristics and to compare the prognostic characteristics of models we used mathematical modeling and plotting the ROC-curves. The optimal value of the diagnostic indicator was found to be achieved when the sensitivity of the test is equal to its specificity. The model was adapted to solve the case when the sensitivity of the test is greater than specificity of the test.

  5. Adjuvant Medications That Improve Survival after Locoregional Therapy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boas, F Edward; Ziv, Etay; Yarmohammadi, Hooman; Brown, Karen T; Erinjeri, Joseph P; Sofocleous, Constantinos T; Harding, James J; Solomon, Stephen B

    2017-07-01

    To determine if outpatient medications taken at the time of liver tumor embolization or ablation affect survival. A retrospective review was done of 2,032 liver tumor embolization, radioembolization, and ablation procedures performed in 1,092 patients from June 2009 to April 2016. Pathology, hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) stage (American Joint Committee on Cancer), neuroendocrine tumor (NET) grade, initial locoregional therapy, overall survival after initial locoregional therapy, Child-Pugh score, Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group performance status, Charlson Comorbidity Index, and outpatient medications taken at the time of locoregional therapy were analyzed for each patient. Kaplan-Meier survival curves were calculated for patients taking 29 medications or medication classes (including prescription and nonprescription medications) for reasons unrelated to their primary cancer diagnosis. Kaplan-Meier curves were compared using the log-rank test. For patients with HCC initially treated with embolization (n = 304 patients), the following medications were associated with improved survival when taken at the time of embolization: beta-blockers (P = .0007), aspirin (P = .0008) and other nonsteroidal antiinflammatory drugs (P = .009), proton pump inhibitors (P = .004), and antivirals for hepatitis B or C (P = .01). For colorectal liver metastases initially treated with ablation (n = 172 patients), beta-blockers were associated with improved survival when taken at the time of ablation (P = .02). Aspirin and beta-blockers are associated with significantly improved survival when taken at the time of embolization for HCC. Aspirin was not associated with survival differences after locoregional therapy for NET or colorectal liver metastases, suggesting an HCC-specific effect. Copyright © 2017 SIR. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  6. Titration Curves: Fact and Fiction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chamberlain, John

    1997-01-01

    Discusses ways in which datalogging equipment can enable titration curves to be measured accurately and how computing power can be used to predict the shape of curves. Highlights include sources of error, use of spreadsheets to generate titration curves, titration of a weak acid with a strong alkali, dibasic acids, weak acid and weak base, and…

  7. Technical report. The application of probability-generating functions to linear-quadratic radiation survival curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kendal, W S

    2000-04-01

    To illustrate how probability-generating functions (PGFs) can be employed to derive a simple probabilistic model for clonogenic survival after exposure to ionizing irradiation. Both repairable and irreparable radiation damage to DNA were assumed to occur by independent (Poisson) processes, at intensities proportional to the irradiation dose. Also, repairable damage was assumed to be either repaired or further (lethally) injured according to a third (Bernoulli) process, with the probability of lethal conversion being directly proportional to dose. Using the algebra of PGFs, these three processes were combined to yield a composite PGF that described the distribution of lethal DNA lesions in irradiated cells. The composite PGF characterized a Poisson distribution with mean, chiD+betaD2, where D was dose and alpha and beta were radiobiological constants. This distribution yielded the conventional linear-quadratic survival equation. To test the composite model, the derived distribution was used to predict the frequencies of multiple chromosomal aberrations in irradiated human lymphocytes. The predictions agreed well with observation. This probabilistic model was consistent with single-hit mechanisms, but it was not consistent with binary misrepair mechanisms. A stochastic model for radiation survival has been constructed from elementary PGFs that exactly yields the linear-quadratic relationship. This approach can be used to investigate other simple probabilistic survival models.

  8. Customized versus population-based growth curves: prediction of low body fat percent at term corrected gestational age following preterm birth.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Law, Tameeka L; Katikaneni, Lakshmi D; Taylor, Sarah N; Korte, Jeffrey E; Ebeling, Myla D; Wagner, Carol L; Newman, Roger B

    2012-07-01

    Compare customized versus population-based growth curves for identification of small-for-gestational-age (SGA) and body fat percent (BF%) among preterm infants. Prospective cohort study of 204 preterm infants classified as SGA or appropriate-for-gestational-age (AGA) by population-based and customized growth curves. BF% was determined by air-displacement plethysmography. Differences between groups were compared using bivariable and multivariable linear and logistic regression analyses. Customized curves reclassified 30% of the preterm infants as SGA. SGA infants identified by customized method only had significantly lower BF% (13.8 ± 6.0) than the AGA (16.2 ± 6.3, p = 0.02) infants and similar to the SGA infants classified by both methods (14.6 ± 6.7, p = 0.51). Customized growth curves were a significant predictor of BF% (p = 0.02), whereas population-based growth curves were not a significant independent predictor of BF% (p = 0.50) at term corrected gestational age. Customized growth potential improves the differentiation of SGA infants and low BF% compared with a standard population-based growth curve among a cohort of preterm infants.

  9. Impact of periodontal maintenance on tooth survival in patients with removable partial dentures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, Sayaka; Allen, Patrick Finbarr; Ikebe, Kazunori; Matsuda, Ken-ichi; Maeda, Yoshinobu

    2015-01-01

    Removable partial dentures (RPDs) may have a negative impact on oral health and have the potential to cause further tooth loss, especially of abutment teeth. However, no evidence indicates the effective interval of regular periodontal maintenance after RPD provision. This practice-based cohort study aimed to examine the impact of regular periodontal maintenance visits on survival of RPD abutment teeth. One hundred and ninety-two patients had been previously provided with 304 new clasp-retained RPDs at Osaka University Dental Hospital, Japan. Using the Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test, 1094 abutments were analysed to illustrate survival curves and to compare each curve. According to the frequency of periodontal maintenance, study samples were divided into three groups; every 3-6 months (3-6M) group, 1-year (1Y) group and no-maintenance (NM) group. Seven-year cumulative survival rates were 83.7% (3-6M), 75.5% (1Y) and 71.9% (NM) respectively. Survival of abutment teeth in the 3-6M group was significantly better than both 1Y (p = 0.005) and NM (p < 0.001) groups. These longitudinal clinical data indicates that periodontal maintenance at least once in 6 months had the most favourable outcome. Frequent periodontal maintenance after RPD provision could be effective in preventing further tooth loss. © 2014 John Wiley & Sons A/S. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  10. A New Curve Tracing Algorithm Based on Local Feature in the Vectorization of Paper Seismograms

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maofa Wang

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available History paper seismograms are very important information for earthquake monitoring and prediction. The vectorization of paper seismograms is an import problem to be resolved. Auto tracing of waveform curves is a key technology for the vectorization of paper seismograms. It can transform an original scanning image into digital waveform data. Accurately tracing out all the key points of each curve in seismograms is the foundation for vectorization of paper seismograms. In the paper, we present a new curve tracing algorithm based on local feature, applying to auto extraction of earthquake waveform in paper seismograms.

  11. Strain- and stress-based forming limit curves for DP 590 steel sheet using Marciniak-Kuczynski method

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kumar, Gautam; Maji, Kuntal

    2018-04-01

    This article deals with the prediction of strain-and stress-based forming limit curves for advanced high strength steel DP590 sheet using Marciniak-Kuczynski (M-K) method. Three yield criteria namely Von-Mises, Hill's 48 and Yld2000-2d and two hardening laws i.e., Hollomon power and Swift hardening laws were considered to predict the forming limit curves (FLCs) for DP590 steel sheet. The effects of imperfection factor and initial groove angle on prediction of FLC were also investigated. It was observed that the FLCs shifted upward with the increase of imperfection factor value. The initial groove angle was found to have significant effects on limit strains in the left side of FLC, and insignificant effect for the right side of FLC for certain range of strain paths. The limit strains were calculated at zero groove angle for the right side of FLC, and a critical groove angle was used for the left side of FLC. The numerically predicted FLCs considering the different combinations of yield criteria and hardening laws were compared with the published experimental results of FLCs for DP590 steel sheet. The FLC predicted using the combination of Yld2000-2d yield criterion and swift hardening law was in better coorelation with the experimental data. Stress based forming limit curves (SFLCs) were also calculated from the limiting strain values obtained by M-K model. Theoretically predicted SFLCs were compared with that obtained from the experimental forming limit strains. Stress based forming limit curves were seen to better represent the forming limits of DP590 steel sheet compared to that by strain-based forming limit curves.

  12. Cougar survival and source-sink structure on Greater Yellowstone's Northern Range

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ruth, T.K.; Haroldson, M.A.; Murphy, K.M.; Buotte, P.C.; Hornocker, M.G.; Quigley, H.B.

    2011-01-01

    We studied survival and causes of mortality of radiocollared cougars (Puma concolor) on the Greater Yellowstone Northern Range (GYNR) prior to (1987–1994) and after wolf (Canis lupus) reintroduction (1998–2005) and evaluated temporal, spatial, and environmental factors that explain variation in adult, subadult, and kitten survival. Using Program MARK and multimodel inference, we modeled cougar survival based on demographic status, season, and landscape attributes. Our best models for adult and independent subadults indicated that females survived better than males and survival increased with age until cougars reached older ages. Lower elevations and increasing density of roads, particularly in areas open to cougar hunting north of Yellowstone National Park (YNP), increased mortality risks for cougars on the GYNR. Indices of ungulate biomass, cougar and wolf population size, winter severity, rainfall, and individual characteristics such as the presence of dependent young, age class, and use of Park or Wilderness were not important predictors of survival. Kitten survival increased with age, was lower during winter, increased with increasing minimum estimates of elk calf biomass, and increased with increasing density of adult male cougars. Using our best model, we mapped adult cougar survival on the GYNR landscape. Results of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis indicated a good model fit for both female (area under the curve [AUC] = 0.81, 95%CI = 0.70–0.92, n = 35 locations) and male cougars (AUC = 0.84, 95%CI = 0.74–0.94, n = 49 locations) relative to hunter harvest locations in our study area. Using minimum estimates of survival necessary to sustain the study population, we developed a source-sink surface and we identify several measures that resource management agencies can take to enhance cougar population management based on a source-sink strategy.

  13. Effect of β on Seismic Vulnerability Curve for RC Bridge Based on Double Damage Criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feng Qinghai; Yuan Wancheng

    2010-01-01

    In the analysis of seismic vulnerability curve based on double damage criterion, the randomness of structural parameter and randomness of seismic should be considered. Firstly, the distribution characteristics of structure capability and seismic demand are obtained based on IDA and PUSHOVER, secondly, the vulnerability of the bridge is gained based on ANN and MC and a vulnerability curve according to this bridge and seismic is drawn. Finally, the analysis for a continuous bridge is displayed as an example, and parametric analysis for the effect of β is done, which reflects the bridge vulnerability overall from the point of total probability, and in order to reduce the discreteness, large value of β are suggested.

  14. Identifiability of altimetry-based rating curve parameters in function of river morphological parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paris, Adrien; André Garambois, Pierre; Calmant, Stéphane; Paiva, Rodrigo; Walter, Collischonn; Santos da Silva, Joecila; Medeiros Moreira, Daniel; Bonnet, Marie-Paule; Seyler, Frédérique; Monnier, Jérôme

    2016-04-01

    Estimating river discharge for ungauged river reaches from satellite measurements is not straightforward given the nonlinearity of flow behavior with respect to measurable and non measurable hydraulic parameters. As a matter of facts, current satellite datasets do not give access to key parameters such as river bed topography and roughness. A unique set of almost one thousand altimetry-based rating curves was built by fit of ENVISAT and Jason-2 water stages with discharges obtained from the MGB-IPH rainfall-runoff model in the Amazon basin. These rated discharges were successfully validated towards simulated discharges (Ens = 0.70) and in-situ discharges (Ens = 0.71) and are not mission-dependent. The rating curve writes Q = a(Z-Z0)b*sqrt(S), with Z the water surface elevation and S its slope gained from satellite altimetry, a and b power law coefficient and exponent and Z0 the river bed elevation such as Q(Z0) = 0. For several river reaches in the Amazon basin where ADCP measurements are available, the Z0 values are fairly well validated with a relative error lower than 10%. The present contribution aims at relating the identifiability and the physical meaning of a, b and Z0given various hydraulic and geomorphologic conditions. Synthetic river bathymetries sampling a wide range of rivers and inflow discharges are used to perform twin experiments. A shallow water model is run for generating synthetic satellite observations, and then rating curve parameters are determined for each river section thanks to a MCMC algorithm. Thanks to twin experiments, it is shown that rating curve formulation with water surface slope, i.e. closer from Manning equation form, improves parameter identifiability. The compensation between parameters is limited, especially for reaches with little water surface variability. Rating curve parameters are analyzed for riffle and pools for small to large rivers, different river slopes and cross section shapes. It is shown that the river bed

  15. Uncertainty estimation with bias-correction for flow series based on rating curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shao, Quanxi; Lerat, Julien; Podger, Geoff; Dutta, Dushmanta

    2014-03-01

    Streamflow discharge constitutes one of the fundamental data required to perform water balance studies and develop hydrological models. A rating curve, designed based on a series of concurrent stage and discharge measurements at a gauging location, provides a way to generate complete discharge time series with a reasonable quality if sufficient measurement points are available. However, the associated uncertainty is frequently not available even though it has a significant impact on hydrological modelling. In this paper, we identify the discrepancy of the hydrographers' rating curves used to derive the historical discharge data series and proposed a modification by bias correction which is also in the form of power function as the traditional rating curve. In order to obtain the uncertainty estimation, we propose a further both-side Box-Cox transformation to stabilize the regression residuals as close to the normal distribution as possible, so that a proper uncertainty can be attached for the whole discharge series in the ensemble generation. We demonstrate the proposed method by applying it to the gauging stations in the Flinders and Gilbert rivers in north-west Queensland, Australia.

  16. Multi-binding site model-based curve-fitting program for the computation of RIA data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Malan, P.G.; Ekins, R.P.; Cox, M.G.; Long, E.M.R.

    1977-01-01

    In this paper, a comparison will be made of model-based and empirical curve-fitting procedures. The implementation of a multiple binding-site curve-fitting model which will successfully fit a wide range of assay data, and which can be run on a mini-computer is described. The latter sophisticated model also provides estimates of binding site concentrations and the values of the respective equilibrium constants present: the latter have been used for refining assay conditions using computer optimisation techniques. (orig./AJ) [de

  17. Starvation-survival of subsurface bacteria

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Magill, N.G.

    1988-01-01

    The ability of four subsurface isolates to survive starvation was examined and the results were compared to survival curves obtained for Escherichia coli B and Serratia marcescens. To examine the starvation-survival phenomenon further, several experimental parameters including nutritional history, initial cell density, growth phase, temperature of growth and starvation, and aeration. Nutritional history, initial cell density, and growth phases of the cells had some effect on the ability of these bacteria to survive whereas temperature and limited aeration had no effect under the conditions tested. No conditions were found where E. coli B or Serratia marcescens died rapidly or where less than 10% of the original cell number of viable cells remained. Because the apparent survival of these bacteria may be due to cryptic growth, cross-feeding experiments with 14 C-labeled cells and unlabeled cells were carried out with E. coli B and Pseudomonas Lula V. Leaked extracellular 14 C-compounds were not used for growth or maintenance energy, and were not taken up by either bacterium. Cryptic growth did not occur; the cells were truly starving under the experimental conditions used

  18. Method of construction spatial transition curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.V. Didanov

    2013-04-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. The movement of rail transport (speed rolling stock, traffic safety, etc. is largely dependent on the quality of the track. In this case, a special role is the transition curve, which ensures smooth insertion of the transition from linear to circular section of road. The article deals with modeling of spatial transition curve based on the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion. This is a continuation of research conducted by the authors regarding the spatial modeling of curved contours. Methodology. Construction of the spatial transition curve is numerical methods for solving nonlinear integral equations, where the initial data are taken coordinate the starting and ending points of the curve of the future, and the inclination of the tangent and the deviation of the curve from the tangent plane at these points. System solutions for the numerical method are the partial derivatives of the equations of the unknown parameters of the law of change of torsion and length of the transition curve. Findings. The parametric equations of the spatial transition curve are calculated by finding the unknown coefficients of the parabolic distribution of the curvature and torsion, as well as the spatial length of the transition curve. Originality. A method for constructing the spatial transition curve is devised, and based on this software geometric modeling spatial transition curves of railway track with specified deviations of the curve from the tangent plane. Practical value. The resulting curve can be applied in any sector of the economy, where it is necessary to ensure a smooth transition from linear to circular section of the curved space bypass. An example is the transition curve in the construction of the railway line, road, pipe, profile, flat section of the working blades of the turbine and compressor, the ship, plane, car, etc.

  19. Development of theoretical oxygen saturation calibration curve based on optical density ratio and optical simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jumadi, Nur Anida; Beng, Gan Kok; Ali, Mohd Alauddin Mohd; Zahedi, Edmond; Morsin, Marlia

    2017-09-01

    The implementation of surface-based Monte Carlo simulation technique for oxygen saturation (SaO2) calibration curve estimation is demonstrated in this paper. Generally, the calibration curve is estimated either from the empirical study using animals as the subject of experiment or is derived from mathematical equations. However, the determination of calibration curve using animal is time consuming and requires expertise to conduct the experiment. Alternatively, an optical simulation technique has been used widely in the biomedical optics field due to its capability to exhibit the real tissue behavior. The mathematical relationship between optical density (OD) and optical density ratios (ODR) associated with SaO2 during systole and diastole is used as the basis of obtaining the theoretical calibration curve. The optical properties correspond to systolic and diastolic behaviors were applied to the tissue model to mimic the optical properties of the tissues. Based on the absorbed ray flux at detectors, the OD and ODR were successfully calculated. The simulation results of optical density ratio occurred at every 20 % interval of SaO2 is presented with maximum error of 2.17 % when comparing it with previous numerical simulation technique (MC model). The findings reveal the potential of the proposed method to be used for extended calibration curve study using other wavelength pair.

  20. Prognostic Factors and Decision Tree for Long-term Survival in Metastatic Uveal Melanoma.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lorenzo, Daniel; Ochoa, María; Piulats, Josep Maria; Gutiérrez, Cristina; Arias, Luis; Català, Jaum; Grau, María; Peñafiel, Judith; Cobos, Estefanía; Garcia-Bru, Pere; Rubio, Marcos Javier; Padrón-Pérez, Noel; Dias, Bruno; Pera, Joan; Caminal, Josep Maria

    2017-12-04

    The purpose of this study was to demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in metastatic uveal melanoma. Secondary aims were to identify the characteristics and prognostic factors associated with long-term survival and to develop a clinical decision tree. The medical records of 99 metastatic uveal melanoma patients were retrospectively reviewed. Patients were classified as either short (≤ 12 months) or long-term survivors (> 12 months) based on a graphical interpretation of the survival curve after diagnosis of the first metastatic lesion. Ophthalmic and oncological characteristics were assessed in both groups. Of the 99 patients, 62 (62.6%) were classified as short-term survivors, and 37 (37.4%) as long-term survivors. The multivariate analysis identified the following predictors of long-term survival: age ≤ 65 years (p=0.012) and unaltered serum lactate dehydrogenase levels (p=0.018); additionally, the size (smaller vs. larger) of the largest liver metastasis showed a trend towards significance (p=0.063). Based on the variables significantly associated with long-term survival, we developed a decision tree to facilitate clinical decision-making. The findings of this study demonstrate the existence of a bimodal survival pattern in patients with metastatic uveal melanoma. The presence of certain clinical characteristics at diagnosis of distant disease is associated with long-term survival. A decision tree was developed to facilitate clinical decision-making and to counsel patients about the expected course of disease.

  1. Survival of mouse testicular stem cells after γ or neutron irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lu, C.C.; Meistrich, M.L.; Thames, H.D. Jr.

    1980-01-01

    The survival of mouse testicular stem cells after γ or neutron irradiation was measured by counts of repopulated tubular cross sections and by the numbers of differentiated spermatogenic cells produced. The numbers of such cells were determined either by sperm head counts of the X-isozyme of lactate dehydrogenase enzyme levels. Qualitatively similar results were obtained with all three assays. The results have confirmed that, with C3H mice, stem-cell survival is higher when the γ-radiation dose is fractionated by a 24-h interval. Single-dose γ-radiaton survival curves for the stem cell had large shoulders and also showed the presence of a radioresistant subpopulation which predominated after doses greater than 600 rad. Part of the shoulder must have resulted from repair of sublethal damage since neutron irradiation produced survival curves with smaller shoulders. The relative biological effectiveness for stem-cell killing for these neutrons (mean energy, 22 MeV) varied from about 2.9 at 10 rad of γ radiation to 2.2 at 600 rad

  2. Multifactorial risk assessment for survival of abutments of removable partial dentures based on practice-based longitudinal study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tada, Sayaka; Ikebe, Kazunori; Matsuda, Ken-Ichi; Maeda, Yoshinobu

    2013-12-01

    Predicting the tooth survival is such a great challenge for evidence-based dentistry. To prevent further tooth loss of partially edentulous patients, estimation of individualized risk and benefit for each residual tooth is important to the clinical decision-making. While there are several reports indicating a risk of losing the abutment teeth of RPDs, there are no existing reports exploring the cause of abutment loss by multifactorial analysis. The aim of this practice-based longitudinal study was to determine the prognostic factors affecting the survival period of RPD abutments using a multifactorial risk assessment. One hundred and forty-seven patients had been previously provided with a total of 236 new RPDs at the Osaka University Dental Hospital; the 856 abutments for these RPDs were analyzed. Survival of abutment teeth was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Multivariate analysis was conducted by Cox's proportional hazard modelling. The 5-year survival rates were 86.6% for direct abutments and 93.1% for indirect abutments, compared with 95.8% survival in non-abutment teeth. The multivariate analysis showed that abutment survival was significantly associated with crown-root ratio (hazard ratio (HR): 3.13), root canal treatment (HR: 2.93), pocket depth (HR: 2.51), type of abutments (HR: 2.19) and occlusal support (HR: 1.90). From this practice-based longitudinal study, we concluded that RPD abutment teeth are more likely to be lost than other residual teeth. From the multifactorial risk factor assessment, several prognostic factors, such as occlusal support, crown-root ratio, root canal treatment, and pocket depth were suggested. These results could be used to estimate the individualized risk for the residual teeth, to predict the prognosis of RPD abutments and to facilitate an evidence-based clinical decision making. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. Measuring survival time: a probability-based approach useful in healthcare decision-making.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    In some clinical situations, the choice between treatment options takes into account their impact on patient survival time. Due to practical constraints (such as loss to follow-up), survival time is usually estimated using a probability calculation based on data obtained in clinical studies or trials. The two techniques most commonly used to estimate survival times are the Kaplan-Meier method and the actuarial method. Despite their limitations, they provide useful information when choosing between treatment options.

  4. Development and External Validation of Prognostic Model for 2-Year Survival of Non-Small-Cell Lung Cancer Patients Treated With Chemoradiotherapy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dehing-Oberije, Cary; Yu Shipeng; De Ruysscher, Dirk; Meersschout, Sabine; Van Beek, Karen; Lievens, Yolande; Van Meerbeeck, Jan; De Neve, Wilfried; Rao, Bharat Ph.D.; Weide, Hiska van der; Lambin, Philippe

    2009-01-01

    Purpose: Radiotherapy, combined with chemotherapy, is the treatment of choice for a large group of non-small-cell lung cancer (NSCLC) patients. Recent developments in the treatment of these patients have led to improved survival. However, the clinical TNM stage is highly inaccurate for the prediction of survival, and alternatives are lacking. The objective of this study was to develop and validate a prediction model for survival of NSCLC patients, treated with chemoradiotherapy. Patients and Methods: The clinical data from 377 consecutive inoperable NSCLC patients, Stage I-IIIB, treated radically with chemoradiotherapy were collected. A prognostic model for 2-year survival was developed, using 2-norm support vector machines. The performance of the model was expressed as the area under the curve of the receiver operating characteristic and assessed using leave-one-out cross-validation, as well as two external data sets. Results: The final multivariate model consisted of gender, World Health Organization performance status, forced expiratory volume in 1 s, number of positive lymph node stations, and gross tumor volume. The area under the curve, assessed by leave-one-out cross-validation, was 0.74, and application of the model to the external data sets yielded an area under the curve of 0.75 and 0.76. A high- and low-risk group could be clearly identified using a risk score based on the model. Conclusion: The multivariate model performed very well and was able to accurately predict the 2-year survival of NSCLC patients treated with chemoradiotherapy. The model could support clinicians in the treatment decision-making process.

  5. Consistent Valuation across Curves Using Pricing Kernels

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Andrea Macrina

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available The general problem of asset pricing when the discount rate differs from the rate at which an asset’s cash flows accrue is considered. A pricing kernel framework is used to model an economy that is segmented into distinct markets, each identified by a yield curve having its own market, credit and liquidity risk characteristics. The proposed framework precludes arbitrage within each market, while the definition of a curve-conversion factor process links all markets in a consistent arbitrage-free manner. A pricing formula is then derived, referred to as the across-curve pricing formula, which enables consistent valuation and hedging of financial instruments across curves (and markets. As a natural application, a consistent multi-curve framework is formulated for emerging and developed inter-bank swap markets, which highlights an important dual feature of the curve-conversion factor process. Given this multi-curve framework, existing multi-curve approaches based on HJM and rational pricing kernel models are recovered, reviewed and generalised and single-curve models extended. In another application, inflation-linked, currency-based and fixed-income hybrid securities are shown to be consistently valued using the across-curve valuation method.

  6. [Comparative evaluation of survival prognosis using MELD or Child-Pugh scores in patients with liver cirrhosis in Chile].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanhueza, Edgar; Contreras, Jorge; Zapata, Rodrigo; Sanhueza, Matías; Elgueta, Fabián; López, Constanza; Jerez, Sigrid; Jerez, Verónica; Delgado, Iris

    2017-01-01

    Currently, most liver units use the Child-Pugh (CP) or the Model for End-Stage Liver Disease (MELD) scores to establish survival prognosis among patients with liver cirrhosis. Which classification is superior, is not well defined. To compare CP and MELD classification scores to predict survival among adult patients with liver cirrhosis in Chile. Follow-up of 137 consecutive adult patients with liver cirrhosis aged 59 ± 12 years (55% women). The diagnosis was reached by clinical, laboratory and image studies at three different centers of Santiago. Patients were staged with CP and MELD classification scores at baseline and followed over a period of 12 months. The predictive capacity of the scores for survival was analyzed using a multivariate statistical analysis (Kaplan-Meier curves). The most common etiology was alcohol (37.9%). The actuarial survival rate was 79.6% at 12 months of follow-up. When comparing groups with areas under curve of receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROC), there was no statistically significant difference in survival between less severe and advanced disease, assessed with both survival scales. The AUROC for MELD and CP were 0.80 and 0.81, respectively. This clinical study did not find a statistically significant difference between the two classifications for the prediction of 12 months survival in patients with cirrhosis.

  7. Improving village poultry’s survival rate through community-based poultry health management

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Sodjinou, Epiphane; Henningsen, Arne; Koudande, Olorounto D.

    Community-based poultry health management (CBM) is a strategy for village poultry improvement based on the installment of “poultry interest groups” in experimental villages. These groups serve as a channel for the dissemination of village poultry improvement technologies. The use of CBM is due...... to the fact that village poultry farming is practiced in a total or partial scavenging system which gives the impression that all the birds in the village belong to the same flock. Accordingly, actions that target all farmers of the same village may have a larger impact on the village poultry’s survival rate...... than actions that target individual producers. The objective of this study is to assess the impact of CBM on the survival rate of village poultry. Based on data collected on 353 poultry keepers, the study shows that CBM significantly improves the survival rate of village poultry. The adoption...

  8. Development of probabilistic fatigue curve for asphalt concrete based on viscoelastic continuum damage mechanics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Himanshu Sharma

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Due to its roots in fundamental thermodynamic framework, continuum damage approach is popular for modeling asphalt concrete behavior. Currently used continuum damage models use mixture averaged values for model parameters and assume deterministic damage process. On the other hand, significant scatter is found in fatigue data generated even under extremely controlled laboratory testing conditions. Thus, currently used continuum damage models fail to account the scatter observed in fatigue data. This paper illustrates a novel approach for probabilistic fatigue life prediction based on viscoelastic continuum damage approach. Several specimens were tested for their viscoelastic properties and damage properties under uniaxial mode of loading. The data thus generated were analyzed using viscoelastic continuum damage mechanics principles to predict fatigue life. Weibull (2 parameter, 3 parameter and lognormal distributions were fit to fatigue life predicted using viscoelastic continuum damage approach. It was observed that fatigue damage could be best-described using Weibull distribution when compared to lognormal distribution. Due to its flexibility, 3-parameter Weibull distribution was found to fit better than 2-parameter Weibull distribution. Further, significant differences were found between probabilistic fatigue curves developed in this research and traditional deterministic fatigue curve. The proposed methodology combines advantages of continuum damage mechanics as well as probabilistic approaches. These probabilistic fatigue curves can be conveniently used for reliability based pavement design. Keywords: Probabilistic fatigue curve, Continuum damage mechanics, Weibull distribution, Lognormal distribution

  9. Dose-rate dependent stochastic effects in radiation cell-survival models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sachs, R.K.; Hlatky, L.R.

    1990-01-01

    When cells are subjected to ionizing radiation the specific energy rate (microscopic analog of dose-rate) varies from cell to cell. Within one cell, this rate fluctuates during the course of time; a crossing of a sensitive cellular site by a high energy charged particle produces many ionizations almost simultaneously, but during the interval between events no ionizations occur. In any cell-survival model one can incorporate the effect of such fluctuations without changing the basic biological assumptions. Using stochastic differential equations and Monte Carlo methods to take into account stochastic effects we calculated the dose-survival rfelationships in a number of current cell survival models. Some of the models assume quadratic misrepair; others assume saturable repair enzyme systems. It was found that a significant effect of random fluctuations is to decrease the theoretically predicted amount of dose-rate sparing. In the limit of low dose-rates neglecting the stochastic nature of specific energy rates often leads to qualitatively misleading results by overestimating the surviving fraction drastically. In the opposite limit of acute irradiation, analyzing the fluctuations in rates merely amounts to analyzing fluctuations in total specific energy via the usual microdosimetric specific energy distribution function, and neglecting fluctuations usually underestimates the surviving fraction. The Monte Carlo methods interpolate systematically between the low dose-rate and high dose-rate limits. As in other approaches, the slope of the survival curve at low dose-rates is virtually independent of dose and equals the initial slope of the survival curve for acute radiation. (orig.)

  10. Lagrangian Curves on Spectral Curves of Monopoles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Guilfoyle, Brendan; Khalid, Madeeha; Ramon Mari, Jose J.

    2010-01-01

    We study Lagrangian points on smooth holomorphic curves in TP 1 equipped with a natural neutral Kaehler structure, and prove that they must form real curves. By virtue of the identification of TP 1 with the space LE 3 of oriented affine lines in Euclidean 3-space, these Lagrangian curves give rise to ruled surfaces in E 3 , which we prove have zero Gauss curvature. Each ruled surface is shown to be the tangent lines to a curve in E 3 , called the edge of regression of the ruled surface. We give an alternative characterization of these curves as the points in E 3 where the number of oriented lines in the complex curve Σ that pass through the point is less than the degree of Σ. We then apply these results to the spectral curves of certain monopoles and construct the ruled surfaces and edges of regression generated by the Lagrangian curves.

  11. Greater Activity in the Frontal Cortex on Left Curves: A Vector-Based fNIRS Study of Left and Right Curve Driving.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Noriyuki Oka

    Full Text Available In the brain, the mechanisms of attention to the left and the right are known to be different. It is possible that brain activity when driving also differs with different horizontal road alignments (left or right curves, but little is known about this. We found driver brain activity to be different when driving on left and right curves, in an experiment using a large-scale driving simulator and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS.The participants were fifteen healthy adults. We created a course simulating an expressway, comprising straight line driving and gentle left and right curves, and monitored the participants under driving conditions, in which they drove at a constant speed of 100 km/h, and under non-driving conditions, in which they simply watched the screen (visual task. Changes in hemoglobin concentrations were monitored at 48 channels including the prefrontal cortex, the premotor cortex, the primary motor cortex and the parietal cortex. From orthogonal vectors of changes in deoxyhemoglobin and changes in oxyhemoglobin, we calculated changes in cerebral oxygen exchange, reflecting neural activity, and statistically compared the resulting values from the right and left curve sections.Under driving conditions, there were no sites where cerebral oxygen exchange increased significantly more during right curves than during left curves (p > 0.05, but cerebral oxygen exchange increased significantly more during left curves (p < 0.05 in the right premotor cortex, the right frontal eye field and the bilateral prefrontal cortex. Under non-driving conditions, increases were significantly greater during left curves (p < 0.05 only in the right frontal eye field.Left curve driving was thus found to require more brain activity at multiple sites, suggesting that left curve driving may require more visual attention than right curve driving. The right frontal eye field was activated under both driving and non-driving conditions.

  12. Greater Activity in the Frontal Cortex on Left Curves: A Vector-Based fNIRS Study of Left and Right Curve Driving

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oka, Noriyuki; Yoshino, Kayoko; Yamamoto, Kouji; Takahashi, Hideki; Li, Shuguang; Sugimachi, Toshiyuki; Nakano, Kimihiko; Suda, Yoshihiro; Kato, Toshinori

    2015-01-01

    Objectives In the brain, the mechanisms of attention to the left and the right are known to be different. It is possible that brain activity when driving also differs with different horizontal road alignments (left or right curves), but little is known about this. We found driver brain activity to be different when driving on left and right curves, in an experiment using a large-scale driving simulator and functional near-infrared spectroscopy (fNIRS). Research Design and Methods The participants were fifteen healthy adults. We created a course simulating an expressway, comprising straight line driving and gentle left and right curves, and monitored the participants under driving conditions, in which they drove at a constant speed of 100 km/h, and under non-driving conditions, in which they simply watched the screen (visual task). Changes in hemoglobin concentrations were monitored at 48 channels including the prefrontal cortex, the premotor cortex, the primary motor cortex and the parietal cortex. From orthogonal vectors of changes in deoxyhemoglobin and changes in oxyhemoglobin, we calculated changes in cerebral oxygen exchange, reflecting neural activity, and statistically compared the resulting values from the right and left curve sections. Results Under driving conditions, there were no sites where cerebral oxygen exchange increased significantly more during right curves than during left curves (p > 0.05), but cerebral oxygen exchange increased significantly more during left curves (p right premotor cortex, the right frontal eye field and the bilateral prefrontal cortex. Under non-driving conditions, increases were significantly greater during left curves (p right frontal eye field. Conclusions Left curve driving was thus found to require more brain activity at multiple sites, suggesting that left curve driving may require more visual attention than right curve driving. The right frontal eye field was activated under both driving and non-driving conditions

  13. Similar survival of patients with multiple versus single primary melanomas based on Utah Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results data (1973-2011).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Grossman, Douglas; Farnham, James M; Hyngstrom, John; Klapperich, Marki E; Secrest, Aaron M; Empey, Sarah; Bowen, Glen M; Wada, David; Andtbacka, Robert H I; Grossmann, Kenneth; Bowles, Tawnya L; Cannon-Albright, Lisa A

    2018-03-01

    Survival data are mixed comparing patients with multiple primary melanomas (MPM) to those with single primary melanomas (SPM). We compared MPM versus SPM patient survival using a matching method that avoids potential biases associated with other analytic approaches. Records of 14,138 individuals obtained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry of all melanomas diagnosed or treated in Utah between 1973 and 2011 were reviewed. A single matched control patient was selected randomly from the SPM cohort for each MPM patient, with the restriction that they survived at least as long as the interval between the first and second diagnoses for the matched MPM patient. Survival curves (n = 887 for both MPM and SPM groups) without covariates showed a significant survival disadvantage for MPM patients (chi-squared 39.29, P < .001). However, a multivariate Cox proportional hazards model showed no significant survival difference (hazard ratio 1.07, P = .55). Restricting the multivariate analysis to invasive melanomas also showed no significant survival difference (hazard ratio 0.99, P = .96). Breslow depth, ulceration status, and specific cause of death were not available for all patients. Patients with MPM had similar survival times as patients with SPM. Copyright © 2018 American Academy of Dermatology, Inc. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  14. Hyper-and-elliptic-curve cryptography

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bernstein, D.J.; Lange, T.

    2014-01-01

    This paper introduces ‘hyper-and-elliptic-curve cryptography’, in which a single high-security group supports fast genus-2-hyperelliptic-curve formulas for variable-base-point single-scalar multiplication (for example, Diffie–Hellman shared-secret computation) and at the same time supports fast

  15. Displacement sensing based on resonant frequency monitoring of electrostatically actuated curved micro beams

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Krakover, Naftaly; Krylov, Slava; Ilic, B Robert

    2016-01-01

    The ability to control nonlinear interactions of suspended mechanical structures offers a unique opportunity to engineer rich dynamical behavior that extends the dynamic range and ultimate device sensitivity. We demonstrate a displacement sensing technique based on resonant frequency monitoring of curved, doubly clamped, bistable micromechanical beams interacting with a movable electrode. In this configuration, the electrode displacement influences the nonlinear electrostatic interactions, effective stiffness and frequency of the curved beam. Increased sensitivity is made possible by dynamically operating the beam near the snap-through bistability onset. Various in-plane device architectures were fabricated from single crystal silicon and measured under ambient conditions using laser Doppler vibrometry. In agreement with the reduced order Galerkin-based model predictions, our experimental results show a significant resonant frequency reduction near critical snap-through, followed by a frequency increase within the post-buckling configuration. Interactions with a stationary electrode yield a voltage sensitivity up to  ≈560 Hz V −1 and results with a movable electrode allow motion sensitivity up to  ≈1.5 Hz nm −1 . Our theoretical and experimental results collectively reveal the potential of displacement sensing using nonlinear interactions of geometrically curved beams near instabilities, with possible applications ranging from highly sensitive resonant inertial detectors to complex optomechanical platforms providing an interface between the classical and quantum domains. (paper)

  16. Cancer survival in Cixian of China, 2003-2013: a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Dongfang; Li, Daojuan; Song, Guohui; Liang, Di; Chen, Chao; Zhang, Yachen; Gao, Zhaoyu; He, Yutong

    2018-04-01

    Cixian is one of the high-risk areas for upper gastrointestinal cancer in China and the world. From 2005, comprehensive population-based screening for upper gastrointestinal cancers has been conducted in Cixian. The aim of this study was to investigate population-based cancer survival from 2003 to 2013 and to explore the effect of screening on upper gastrointestinal cancer survival in Cixian. Observed survival was estimated using the life table method. The expected survival from the general population was calculated using all-cause mortality data from the population of Cixian with the EdererII method. Cixian cancer registry, with a total coverage of 6.88 million person years, recorded 19,628 cancer patients diagnosed during 2003-2013. In Cixian, from 2003 to 2013, there were 19,628 newly cancer cases and 13,984 cancer deaths, with an incidence rate of 285.37/100,000 and mortality rate of 203.31/100,000. The overall five-year relative cancer survival for patients diagnosed in Cixian in 2003-2013 was 22.53%. The relative survival for all cancers combined in Cixian had an overall upward trend from 2003 to 2013. Among upper gastrointestinal cancer in Cixian, the five-year relative survival for cardia gastric cancer was highest at 30.42%, followed by oesophageal cancer at 25.37% and noncardia gastric cancer at 18.93%. In 2013, the five-year relative survival for oesophageal cancer, cardia gastric cancer, and noncardia gastric cancer patients aged 45-69 years was 39.97% (95% CI: 34.52-45.43%), 51.74% (95% CI: 42.09-60.86%), and 37.43% (95% CI: 26.93-48.17%), respectively, the absolute values increasing 14.11%, 16.71%, and 14.92% compared with that in 2003. There is an increasing trend in overall survival for upper gastrointestinal cancer with early screening and treatment of cancer in Cixian. © 2018 The Authors. Cancer Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

  17. An explanation for the shape of nanoindentation unloading curves based on finite element simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bolshakov, A.; Pharr, G.M.

    1995-01-01

    Current methods for measuring hardness and modulus from nanoindentation load-displacement data are based on Sneddon's equations for the indentation of an elastic half-space by an axially symmetric rigid punch. Recent experiments have shown that nanoindentation unloading data are distinctly curved in a manner which is not consistent with either the flat punch or the conical indenter geometries frequently used in modeling, but are more closely approximated by a parabola of revolution. Finite element simulations for conical indentation of an elastic-plastic material are presented which corroborate the experimental observations, and from which a simple explanation for the shape of the unloading curve is derived. The explanation is based on the concept of an effective indenter shape whose geometry is determined by the shape of the plastic hardness impression formed during indentation

  18. Experience Curves: A Tool for Energy Policy Assessment

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Neij, Lena; Helby, Peter [Lund Univ. (Sweden). Environmental and Energy Systems Studies; Dannemand Andersen, Per; Morthorst, Poul Erik [Riso National Laboratory, Roskilde (Denmark); Durstewitz, Michael; Hoppe-Kilpper, Martin [Inst. fuer Solare Energieversorgungstechnik e.V., Kassel (DE); and others

    2003-07-01

    The objective of the project, Experience curves: a tool for energy policy assessment (EXTOOL), was to analyse the experience curve as a tool for the assessment of energy policy measures. This is of special interest, since the use of experience curves for the assessment of energy policy measures requires the development of the established experience curve methodology. This development raises several questions which have been addressed and analysed in this project. The analysis is based on case studies of wind power, an area with considerable experience in technology development, deployment and policy measures. Therefore, a case study based on wind power provides a good opportunity to study the usefulness of experience curves as a tool for the assessment of energy policy measures. However, the results are discussed in terms of using experience curves for the assessment of any energy technology. The project shows that experience curves can be used to assess the effect of combined policy measures in terms of cost reductions. Moreover, the result of the project show that experience curves could be used to analyse international 'learning systems', i.e. cost reductions brought about by the development of wind power and policy measures used in other countries. Nevertheless, the use of experience curves for the assessment of policy programmes has several limitations. First, the analysis and assessment of policy programmes cannot be achieved unless relevant experience curves based on good data can be developed. The authors are of the opinion that only studies that provide evidence of the validity, reliability and relevance of experience curves should be taken into account in policy making. Second, experience curves provide an aggregated picture of the situation and more detailed analysis of various sources of cost reduction, and cost reductions resulting from individual policy measures, requires additional data and analysis tools. Third, we do not recommend the use of

  19. Curve aligning approach for gait authentication based on a wearable accelerometer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sun, Hu; Yuao, Tao

    2012-01-01

    Gait authentication based on a wearable accelerometer is a novel biometric which can be used for identity identification, medical rehabilitation and early detection of neurological disorders. The method for matching gait patterns tells heavily on authentication performances. In this paper, curve aligning is introduced as a new method for matching gait patterns and it is compared with correlation and dynamic time warping (DTW). A support vector machine (SVM) is proposed to fuse pattern-matching methods in a decision level. Accelerations collected from ankles of 22 walking subjects are processed for authentications in our experiments. The fusion of curve aligning with backward–forward accelerations and DTW with vertical accelerations promotes authentication performances substantially and consistently. This fusion algorithm is tested repeatedly. Its mean and standard deviation of equal error rates are 0.794% and 0.696%, respectively, whereas among all presented non-fusion algorithms, the best one shows an EER of 3.03%. (paper)

  20. Inverse Diffusion Curves Using Shape Optimization.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Shuang; Durand, Fredo; Zheng, Changxi

    2018-07-01

    The inverse diffusion curve problem focuses on automatic creation of diffusion curve images that resemble user provided color fields. This problem is challenging since the 1D curves have a nonlinear and global impact on resulting color fields via a partial differential equation (PDE). We introduce a new approach complementary to previous methods by optimizing curve geometry. In particular, we propose a novel iterative algorithm based on the theory of shape derivatives. The resulting diffusion curves are clean and well-shaped, and the final image closely approximates the input. Our method provides a user-controlled parameter to regularize curve complexity, and generalizes to handle input color fields represented in a variety of formats.

  1. Chordoma: review of clinico radiological features and factors affecting survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Soo, M.Y.S.

    2001-01-01

    This study reviews the clinico radiological features of cranial and sacrospinal chordomas and identifies factors affecting survival. Nineteen patients seen between January 1980 and December 2000 with histopathological diagnosis of chordomas were retrospectively reviewed with reference to clinical presentation, imaging features, treatment modalities and post-therapy status. Eight had tumours in the skull base while 11 patients had spinal and sacro-coccygeal lesions. Surgical resection was performed in 16 patients whose subsequent natural history was used to identify clinical indicators that may influence survival. Completeness of resection, age, gender and postoperative irradiation were subjected to analysis using the Cox proportional hazard models. Kaplan-Meir survival curves illustrate the survival distributions. Diplopia and facial pain are prime clinical presentations in cranial lesions, while extremity weakness and a sacrogluteal mass are common complaints in the sacrospinal group. Lesional calcifications are present in 40% while an osteolytic soft tissue mass is detectable by CT in all cases. Heterogeneous signals and internal septations on T 2 -weighted MRI are predominant features. In sacrospinal tumours, complete excision with adjuvant radiotherapy achieves the best results with a disease-free survival of more than 5 years. The clinical and imaging findings in this study are in accordance with those of other series. Except for complete surgical excision followed by radiotherapy in the subset of patients with sacrospinal tumours, none of the other clinical indicators show a statistical significant influence on survival. Copyright (2001) Blackwell Science Pty Ltd

  2. Factors driving inequality in prostate cancer survival: a population based study.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Richéal M Burns

    Full Text Available PURPOSE: As cancer control strategies have become more successful, issues around survival have become increasingly important to researchers and policy makers. The aim of this study was to examine the role of a range of clinical and socio-demographic variables in explaining variations in survival after a prostate cancer diagnosis, paying particular attention to the role of healthcare provider(s i.e. private versus public status. METHODS: Data were extracted from the National Cancer Registry Ireland, for patients diagnosed with prostate cancer from 1998-2009 (N = 26,183. A series of multivariate Cox and logistic regression models were used to examine the role of healthcare provider and socio-economic status (area-based deprivation on survival, controlling for age, stage, Gleason grade, marital status and region of residence. Survival was based on all-cause mortality. RESULTS: Older individuals who were treated in a private care setting were more likely to have survived than those who had not, when other factors were controlled for. Differences were evident with respect to marital status, region of residence, clinical stage and Gleason grade. The effect of socio-economic status was modified by healthcare provider, such that risk of death was higher in those men of lower socio-economic status treated by public, but not private providers in the Cox models. The logistic models revealed a socio-economic gradient in risk of death overall; the gradient was larger for those treated by public providers compared to those treated by private providers when controlling for a range of other confounding factors. CONCLUSION: The role of healthcare provider and socio-economic status in survival of men with prostate cancer may give rise to concerns that warrant further investigation.

  3. Survival modeling for the estimation of transition probabilities in model-based economic evaluations in the absence of individual patient data: a tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Diaby, Vakaramoko; Adunlin, Georges; Montero, Alberto J

    2014-02-01

    Survival modeling techniques are increasingly being used as part of decision modeling for health economic evaluations. As many models are available, it is imperative for interested readers to know about the steps in selecting and using the most suitable ones. The objective of this paper is to propose a tutorial for the application of appropriate survival modeling techniques to estimate transition probabilities, for use in model-based economic evaluations, in the absence of individual patient data (IPD). An illustration of the use of the tutorial is provided based on the final progression-free survival (PFS) analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in metastatic breast cancer (mBC). An algorithm was adopted from Guyot and colleagues, and was then run in the statistical package R to reconstruct IPD, based on the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial. It should be emphasized that the reconstructed IPD represent an approximation of the original data. Afterwards, we fitted parametric models to the reconstructed IPD in the statistical package Stata. Both statistical and graphical tests were conducted to verify the relative and absolute validity of the findings. Finally, the equations for transition probabilities were derived using the general equation for transition probabilities used in model-based economic evaluations, and the parameters were estimated from fitted distributions. The results of the application of the tutorial suggest that the log-logistic model best fits the reconstructed data from the latest published Kaplan-Meier (KM) curves of the BOLERO-2 trial. Results from the regression analyses were confirmed graphically. An equation for transition probabilities was obtained for each arm of the BOLERO-2 trial. In this paper, a tutorial was proposed and used to estimate the transition probabilities for model-based economic evaluation, based on the results of the final PFS analysis of the BOLERO-2 trial in mBC. The results of our study can serve as a basis for any model

  4. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zongwen AN

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic; then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relationship among minimum stress, maximum stress and residual life, that is the σmin(n- σmax(n-Nr(n curved surface model, is established; finally, the validity of the proposed model is demonstrated by a practical case. The result shows that the proposed model can reflect the influence of maximum stress and minimum stress on residual life of structure under random repeated load, which can provide a theoretical basis for life prediction and reliability assessment of structure.

  5. In vivo survival of [14C]sucrose-loaded porcine carrier erythrocytes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    DeLoach, J.R.

    1983-01-01

    Porcine carrier erythrocyte survival was measured in adult pigs. [14C]Sucrose-loaded erythrocytes had a biphasic survival curve, with as much as 50% of the cells removed from circulation in the first 24 hours. The remaining cells had a 35-day half-life. Encapsulation values were measured for porcine erythrocytes and entrapment of [14C]sucrose was greater than 45%. Addition of inosine and glucose to the dialyzed cells and to the final wash buffer before reinjection of autologous cells did not improve their survival

  6. Stage discharge curve for Guillemard Bridge streamflow sation based on rating curve method using historical flood event data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ros, F C; Sidek, L M; Desa, M N; Arifin, K; Tosaka, H

    2013-01-01

    The purpose of the stage-discharge curves varies from water quality study, flood modelling study, can be used to project climate change scenarios and so on. As the bed of the river often changes due to the annual monsoon seasons that sometimes cause by massive floods, the capacity of the river will changed causing shifting controlled to happen. This study proposes to use the historical flood event data from 1960 to 2009 in calculating the stage-discharge curve of Guillemard Bridge located in Sg. Kelantan. Regression analysis was done to check the quality of the data and examine the correlation between the two variables, Q and H. The mean values of the two variables then were adopted to find the value of difference between zero gauge height and the level of zero flow, 'a', K and 'n' to fit into rating curve equation and finally plotting the stage-discharge rating curve. Regression analysis of the historical flood data indicate that 91 percent of the original uncertainty has been explained by the analysis with the standard error of 0.085.

  7. Novel biomarker-based model for the prediction of sorafenib response and overall survival in advanced hepatocellular carcinoma: a prospective cohort study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hwi Young; Lee, Dong Hyeon; Lee, Jeong-Hoon; Cho, Young Youn; Cho, Eun Ju; Yu, Su Jong; Kim, Yoon Jun; Yoon, Jung-Hwan

    2018-03-20

    Prediction of the outcome of sorafenib therapy using biomarkers is an unmet clinical need in patients with advanced hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC). The aim was to develop and validate a biomarker-based model for predicting sorafenib response and overall survival (OS). This prospective cohort study included 124 consecutive HCC patients (44 with disease control, 80 with progression) with Child-Pugh class A liver function, who received sorafenib. Potential serum biomarkers (namely, hepatocyte growth factor [HGF], fibroblast growth factor [FGF], vascular endothelial growth factor receptor-1, CD117, and angiopoietin-2) were tested. After identifying independent predictors of tumor response, a risk scoring system for predicting OS was developed and 3-fold internal validation was conducted. A risk scoring system was developed with six covariates: etiology, platelet count, Barcelona Clinic Liver Cancer stage, protein induced by vitamin K absence-II, HGF, and FGF. When patients were stratified into low-risk (score ≤ 5), intermediate-risk (score 6), and high-risk (score ≥ 7) groups, the model provided good discriminant functions on tumor response (concordance [c]-index, 0.884) and 12-month survival (area under the curve [AUC], 0.825). The median OS was 19.0, 11.2, and 6.1 months in the low-, intermediate-, and high-risk group, respectively (P functions on tumor response (c-index, 0.825) and 12-month survival (AUC, 0.803), and good calibration functions (all P > 0.05 between expected and observed values). This new model including serum FGF and HGF showed good performance in predicting the response to sorafenib and survival in patients with advanced HCC.

  8. A Literature-Based Analysis of the Learning Curves of Laparoscopic Radical Prostatectomy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Daniel W. Good

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available There is a trend for the increased adoption of minimally invasive techniques of radical prostatectomy (RP – laparoscopic (LRP and robotic assisted (RARP – from the traditional open radical retropubic prostatectomy (ORP, popularised by Partin et al. Recently there has been a dramatic expansion in the rates of RARP being performed, and there have been many early reports postulating that the learning curve for RARP is shorter than for LRP. The aim of this study was to review the literature and analyse the length of the LRP learning curves for the various outcome measures: perioperative, oncologic, and functional outcomes. A broad search of the literature was performed in November 2013 using the PubMed database. Only studies of real patients and those from 2004 until 2013 were included; those on simulators were excluded. In total, 239 studies were identified after which 13 were included. The learning curve is a heterogeneous entity, depending entirely on the criteria used to define it. There is evidence of multiple learning curves; however the length of these is dependent on the definitions used by the authors. Few studies use the more rigorous definition of plateauing of the curve. Perioperative learning curve takes approximately 150-200 cases to plateau, oncologic curve approximately 200 cases, and the functional learning curve up to 700 cases to plateau (700 for potency, 200 cases for continence. In this review, we have analysed the literature with respect to the learning curve for LRP. It is clear that the learning curve is long. This necessitates centralising LRP to high volume centres such that surgeons, trainees, and patients are able to utilise the benefits of LRP.

  9. A residual life prediction model based on the generalized σ -N curved surface

    OpenAIRE

    Zongwen AN; Xuezong BAI; Jianxiong GAO

    2016-01-01

    In order to investigate change rule of the residual life of structure under random repeated load, firstly, starting from the statistic meaning of random repeated load, the joint probability density function of maximum stress and minimum stress is derived based on the characteristics of order statistic (maximum order statistic and minimum order statistic); then, based on the equation of generalized σ -N curved surface, considering the influence of load cycles number on fatigue life, a relation...

  10. No evidence for an open vessel effect in centrifuge-based vulnerability curves of a long-vesselled liana (Vitis vinifera).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jacobsen, Anna L; Pratt, R Brandon

    2012-06-01

    Vulnerability to cavitation curves are used to estimate xylem cavitation resistance and can be constructed using multiple techniques. It was recently suggested that a technique that relies on centrifugal force to generate negative xylem pressures may be susceptible to an open vessel artifact in long-vesselled species. Here, we used custom centrifuge rotors to measure different sample lengths of 1-yr-old stems of grapevine to examine the influence of open vessels on vulnerability curves, thus testing the hypothesized open vessel artifact. These curves were compared with a dehydration-based vulnerability curve. Although samples differed significantly in the number of open vessels, there was no difference in the vulnerability to cavitation measured on 0.14- and 0.271-m-long samples of Vitis vinifera. Dehydration and centrifuge-based curves showed a similar pattern of declining xylem-specific hydraulic conductivity (K(s)) with declining water potential. The percentage loss in hydraulic conductivity (PLC) differed between dehydration and centrifuge curves and it was determined that grapevine is susceptible to errors in estimating maximum K(s) during dehydration because of the development of vessel blockages. Our results from a long-vesselled liana do not support the open vessel artifact hypothesis. © 2012 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2012 New Phytologist Trust.

  11. A Practical Anodic and Cathodic Curve Intersection Model to Understand Multiple Corrosion Potentials of Fe-Based Glassy Alloys in OH- Contained Solutions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Y J; Wang, Y G; An, B; Xu, H; Liu, Y; Zhang, L C; Ma, H Y; Wang, W M

    2016-01-01

    A practical anodic and cathodic curve intersection model, which consisted of an apparent anodic curve and an imaginary cathodic line, was proposed to explain multiple corrosion potentials occurred in potentiodynamic polarization curves of Fe-based glassy alloys in alkaline solution. The apparent anodic curve was selected from the measured anodic curves. The imaginary cathodic line was obtained by linearly fitting the differences of anodic curves and can be moved evenly or rotated to predict the number and value of corrosion potentials.

  12. Learning curves in health professions education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pusic, Martin V; Boutis, Kathy; Hatala, Rose; Cook, David A

    2015-08-01

    Learning curves, which graphically show the relationship between learning effort and achievement, are common in published education research but are not often used in day-to-day educational activities. The purpose of this article is to describe the generation and analysis of learning curves and their applicability to health professions education. The authors argue that the time is right for a closer look at using learning curves-given their desirable properties-to inform both self-directed instruction by individuals and education management by instructors.A typical learning curve is made up of a measure of learning (y-axis), a measure of effort (x-axis), and a mathematical linking function. At the individual level, learning curves make manifest a single person's progress towards competence including his/her rate of learning, the inflection point where learning becomes more effortful, and the remaining distance to mastery attainment. At the group level, overlaid learning curves show the full variation of a group of learners' paths through a given learning domain. Specifically, they make overt the difference between time-based and competency-based approaches to instruction. Additionally, instructors can use learning curve information to more accurately target educational resources to those who most require them.The learning curve approach requires a fine-grained collection of data that will not be possible in all educational settings; however, the increased use of an assessment paradigm that explicitly includes effort and its link to individual achievement could result in increased learner engagement and more effective instructional design.

  13. Global experience curves for wind farms

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Junginger, M.; Faaij, A.; Turkenburg, W.C.

    2005-01-01

    In order to forecast the technological development and cost of wind turbines and the production costs of wind electricity, frequent use is made of the so-called experience curve concept. Experience curves of wind turbines are generally based on data describing the development of national markets, which cause a number of problems when applied for global assessments. To analyze global wind energy price development more adequately, we compose a global experience curve. First, underlying factors for past and potential future price reductions of wind turbines are analyzed. Also possible implications and pitfalls when applying the experience curve methodology are assessed. Second, we present and discuss a new approach of establishing a global experience curve and thus a global progress ratio for the investment cost of wind farms. Results show that global progress ratios for wind farms may lie between 77% and 85% (with an average of 81%), which is significantly more optimistic than progress ratios applied in most current scenario studies and integrated assessment models. While the findings are based on a limited amount of data, they may indicate faster price reduction opportunities than so far assumed. With this global experience curve we aim to improve the reliability of describing the speed with which global costs of wind power may decline

  14. Analyzing age-specific genetic effects on human extreme age survival in cohort-based longitudinal studies

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Tan, Qihua; Jacobsen, Rune; Sørensen, Mette

    2013-01-01

    The analysis of age-specific genetic effects on human survival over extreme ages is confronted with a deceleration pattern in mortality that deviates from traditional survival models and sparse genetic data available. As human late life is a distinct phase of life history, exploring the genetic...... effects on extreme age survival can be of special interest to evolutionary biology and health science. We introduce a non-parametric survival analysis approach that combines population survival information with individual genotype data in assessing the genetic effects in cohort-based longitudinal studies...

  15. Disparities in pediatric leukemia early survival in Argentina: a population-based study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gilda Garibotti

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To identify disparities-using recursive partitioning (RP-in early survival for children with leukemias treated in Argentina, and to depict the main characteristics of the most vulnerable groups. METHODS: This secondary data analysis evaluated 12-month survival (12-ms in 3 987 children diagnosed between 2000 and 2008 with lymphoid leukemia (LL and myeloid leukemia (ML and registered in Argentina's population-based oncopediatric registry. Prognostic groups based on age at diagnosis, gender, socioeconomic index of the province of residence, and migration to a different province to receive health care were identified using the RP method. RESULTS: Overall 12-ms for LL and ML cases was 83.7% and 59.9% respectively. RP detected major gaps in 12-ms. Among 1-10-year-old LL patients from poorer provinces, 12-ms for those who did and did not migrate was 87.0% and 78.2% respectively. Survival of ML patients < 2 years old from provinces with a low/medium socioeconomic index was 38.9% compared to 62.1% for those in the same age group from richer provinces. For 2-14-year-old ML patients living in poor provinces, patient migration was associated with a 30% increase in 12-ms. CONCLUSIONS: Major disparities in leukemia survival among Argentine children were found. Patient migration and socioeconomic index of residence province were associated with survival. The RP method was instrumental in identifying and characterizing vulnerable groups.

  16. A simple transformation for converting CW-OSL curves to LM-OSL curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Bulur, E.

    2000-01-01

    A simple mathematical transformation is introduced to convert from OSL decay curves obtained in the conventional way to those obtained using a linear modulation technique based on a linear increase of the stimulation light intensity during OSL measurement. The validity of the transformation...... was tested by the IR-stimulated luminescence curves from feldspars, recorded using both the conventional and the linear modulation techniques. The transformation was further applied to green-light-stimulated OSL from K and Na feldspars. (C) 2000 Elsevier Science Ltd. All rights reserved....

  17. Risk factors affecting survival in heart transplant patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Almenar, L; Cardo, M L; Martínez-Dolz, L; García-Palomar, C; Rueda, J; Zorio, E; Arnau, M A; Osa, A; Palencia, M

    2005-11-01

    Certain cardiovascular risk factors have been linked to morbidity and mortality in heart transplant (HT) patients. The sum of various risk factors may have a large cumulative negative effect, leading to a substantially worse prognosis and the need to consider whether HT is contraindicated. The objective of this study was to determine whether the risk factors usually available prior to HT result in an excess mortality in our setting that contraindicates transplantation. Consecutive patients who underwent heart transplantation from November 1987 to January 2004 were included. Heart-lung transplants, retransplants, and pediatric transplants were excluded. Of the 384 patients, 89% were men. Mean age was 52 years (range, 12 to 67). Underlying disease included ischemic heart disease (52%), idiopathic dilated cardiomyopathy (36%), valvular disease (8%), and other (4%). Variables considered risk factors were obesity (BMI >25), dyslipidemia, hypertension, prior thoracic surgery, diabetes, and history of ischemic heart disease. Survival curves by number of risk factors using Kaplan-Meier and log-rank for comparison of curves. Overall patient survival at 1, 5, 10, and 13 years was 76%, 68%, 54%, and 47%, respectively. Survival at 10 years, if fewer than two risk factors were present, was 69%; 59% if two or three factors were present; and 37% if more than three associated risk factors were present (P = .04). The presence of certain risk factors in patients undergoing HT resulted in lower survival rates. The combination of various risk factors clearly worsened outcomes. However, we do not believe this should be an absolute contraindication for transplantation.

  18. Ortholog-based screening and identification of genes related to intracellular survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Xiaowen; Wang, Jiawei; Bing, Guoxia; Bie, Pengfei; De, Yanyan; Lyu, Yanli; Wu, Qingmin

    2018-04-20

    Bioinformatics and comparative genomics analysis methods were used to predict unknown pathogen genes based on homology with identified or functionally clustered genes. In this study, the genes of common pathogens were analyzed to screen and identify genes associated with intracellular survival through sequence similarity, phylogenetic tree analysis and the λ-Red recombination system test method. The total 38,952 protein-coding genes of common pathogens were divided into 19,775 clusters. As demonstrated through a COG analysis, information storage and processing genes might play an important role intracellular survival. Only 19 clusters were present in facultative intracellular pathogens, and not all were present in extracellular pathogens. Construction of a phylogenetic tree selected 18 of these 19 clusters. Comparisons with the DEG database and previous research revealed that seven other clusters are considered essential gene clusters and that seven other clusters are associated with intracellular survival. Moreover, this study confirmed that clusters screened by orthologs with similar function could be replaced with an approved uvrY gene and its orthologs, and the results revealed that the usg gene is associated with intracellular survival. The study improves the current understanding of intracellular pathogens characteristics and allows further exploration of the intracellular survival-related gene modules in these pathogens. Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier B.V.

  19. Exact results for survival probability in the multistate Landau-Zener model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Volkov, M V; Ostrovsky, V N

    2004-01-01

    An exact formula is derived for survival probability in the multistate Landau-Zener model in the special case where the initially populated state corresponds to the extremal (maximum or minimum) slope of a linear diabatic potential curve. The formula was originally guessed by S Brundobler and V Elzer (1993 J. Phys. A: Math. Gen. 26 1211) based on numerical calculations. It is a simple generalization of the expression for the probability of diabatic passage in the famous two-state Landau-Zener model. Our result is obtained via analysis and summation of the entire perturbation theory series

  20. Survival of irradiated glia and glioma cells studied with a new cloning technique

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nilsson, S.; Carlsson, J.; Larsson, B.; Ponten, J.

    1980-01-01

    A method allowing cloning of monolayer cultured cells with a low plating efficiency was developed. Cells were grown in several small palladium squares to obtain a high cell density. These squares were surrounded by non-adhesive agarose to prevent large distance migration and thereby mixing of the clones. By using easily-cloned hamster cells for comparison it was found that the survival curves were similar to the curves obtained with conventional cloning. The new method was used to compare the radiosensitivity of cultured human glia and glioma cells which both have a low plating efficiency ( 0 -values (1.5 to 2.5 Gy) and large shoulders (extrapolation numbers around 5) indicating that they were rather resistant and had a high capacity for accumulation of sublethal damage. The survival curves for glia cells had lower D 0 -values (1.3 to 1.5 Gy) and no shoulders at all, indicating that they were more sensitive than the glioma cells. (author)

  1. Learning curves and long-term outcome of simulation-based thoracentesis training for medical students

    Science.gov (United States)

    2011-01-01

    Background Simulation-based medical education has been widely used in medical skills training; however, the effectiveness and long-term outcome of simulation-based training in thoracentesis requires further investigation. The purpose of this study was to assess the learning curve of simulation-based thoracentesis training, study skills retention and transfer of knowledge to a clinical setting following simulation-based education intervention in thoracentesis procedures. Methods Fifty-two medical students were enrolled in this study. Each participant performed five supervised trials on the simulator. Participant's performance was assessed by performance score (PS), procedure time (PT), and participant's confidence (PC). Learning curves for each variable were generated. Long-term outcome of the training was measured by the retesting and clinical performance evaluation 6 months and 1 year, respectively, after initial training on the simulator. Results Significant improvements in PS, PT, and PC were noted among the first 3 to 4 test trials (p 0.05). Clinical competency in thoracentesis was improved in participants who received simulation training relative to that of first year medical residents without such experience (p simulation-based thoracentesis training can significantly improve an individual's performance. The saturation of learning from the simulator can be achieved after four practice sessions. Simulation-based training can assist in long-term retention of skills and can be partially transferred to clinical practice. PMID:21696584

  2. Survival in pediatric medulloblastoma: a population-based observational study to improve prognostication.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weil, Alexander G; Wang, Anthony C; Westwick, Harrison J; Ibrahim, George M; Ariani, Rojine T; Crevier, Louis; Perreault, Sebastien; Davidson, Tom; Tseng, Chi-Hong; Fallah, Aria

    2017-03-01

    Medulloblastoma is the most common form of brain malignancy of childhood. The mainstay of epidemiological data regarding childhood medulloblastoma is derived from case series, hence population-based studies are warranted to improve the accuracy of survival estimates. To utilize a big-data approach to update survival estimates in a contemporary cohort of children with medulloblastoma. We performed a population-based retrospective observational cohort study utilizing the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program database that captures all children, less than 20 years of age, between 1973 and 2012 in 18 geographical regions representing 28% of the US population. We included all participants with a presumed or histologically diagnosis of medulloblastoma. The main outcome of interest is survivors at 1, 5 and 10 years following diagnosis. A cohort of 1735 children with a median (interquartile range) age at diagnosis of 7 (4-11) years, with a diagnosis of medulloblastoma were identified. The incidence and prevalence of pediatric medulloblastoma has remained stable over the past 4 decades. There is a critical time point at 1990 when the overall survival has drastically improved. In the contemporary cohort (1990 onwards), the percentage of participants alive was 86, 70 and 63% at 1, 5 and 10 years, respectively. Multivariate Cox-Regression model demonstrated Radiation (HR 0.37; 95% CI 0.30-0.46, p < 0.001) and Surgery (HR 0.42; 95% CI 0.30-0.58, p < 0.001) independently predict survival. The probability of mortality from a neurological cause is <5% in patients who are alive 8 years following diagnosis. The SEER cohort analysis demonstrates significant improvements in pediatric medulloblastoma survival. In contrast to previous reports, the majority of patients survive in the modern era, and those alive 8 years following initial diagnosis are likely a long-term survivor. The importance of minimizing treatment-related toxicity is increasingly apparent given

  3. Predicting the Survival of Gastric Cancer Patients Using

    Science.gov (United States)

    Korhani Kangi, Azam; Bahrampour, Abbas

    2018-02-26

    Introduction and purpose: In recent years the use of neural networks without any premises for investigation of prognosis in analyzing survival data has increased. Artificial neural networks (ANN) use small processors with a continuous network to solve problems inspired by the human brain. Bayesian neural networks (BNN) constitute a neural-based approach to modeling and non-linearization of complex issues using special algorithms and statistical methods. Gastric cancer incidence is the first and third ranking for men and women in Iran, respectively. The aim of the present study was to assess the value of an artificial neural network and a Bayesian neural network for modeling and predicting of probability of gastric cancer patient death. Materials and Methods: In this study, we used information on 339 patients aged from 20 to 90 years old with positive gastric cancer, referred to Afzalipoor and Shahid Bahonar Hospitals in Kerman City from 2001 to 2015. The three layers perceptron neural network (ANN) and the Bayesian neural network (BNN) were used for predicting the probability of mortality using the available data. To investigate differences between the models, sensitivity, specificity, accuracy and the area under receiver operating characteristic curves (AUROCs) were generated. Results: In this study, the sensitivity and specificity of the artificial neural network and Bayesian neural network models were 0.882, 0.903 and 0.954, 0.909, respectively. Prediction accuracy and the area under curve ROC for the two models were 0.891, 0.944 and 0.935, 0.961. The age at diagnosis of gastric cancer was most important for predicting survival, followed by tumor grade, morphology, gender, smoking history, opium consumption, receiving chemotherapy, presence of metastasis, tumor stage, receiving radiotherapy, and being resident in a village. Conclusion: The findings of the present study indicated that the Bayesian neural network is preferable to an artificial neural network for

  4. Population-based cancer survival in the United States: Data, quality control, and statistical methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Allemani, Claudia; Harewood, Rhea; Johnson, Christopher J; Carreira, Helena; Spika, Devon; Bonaventure, Audrey; Ward, Kevin; Weir, Hannah K; Coleman, Michel P

    2017-12-15

    Robust comparisons of population-based cancer survival estimates require tight adherence to the study protocol, standardized quality control, appropriate life tables of background mortality, and centralized analysis. The CONCORD program established worldwide surveillance of population-based cancer survival in 2015, analyzing individual data on 26 million patients (including 10 million US patients) diagnosed between 1995 and 2009 with 1 of 10 common malignancies. In this Cancer supplement, we analyzed data from 37 state cancer registries that participated in the second cycle of the CONCORD program (CONCORD-2), covering approximately 80% of the US population. Data quality checks were performed in 3 consecutive phases: protocol adherence, exclusions, and editorial checks. One-, 3-, and 5-year age-standardized net survival was estimated using the Pohar Perme estimator and state- and race-specific life tables of all-cause mortality for each year. The cohort approach was adopted for patients diagnosed between 2001 and 2003, and the complete approach for patients diagnosed between 2004 and 2009. Articles in this supplement report population coverage, data quality indicators, and age-standardized 5-year net survival by state, race, and stage at diagnosis. Examples of tables, bar charts, and funnel plots are provided in this article. Population-based cancer survival is a key measure of the overall effectiveness of services in providing equitable health care. The high quality of US cancer registry data, 80% population coverage, and use of an unbiased net survival estimator ensure that the survival trends reported in this supplement are robustly comparable by race and state. The results can be used by policymakers to identify and address inequities in cancer survival in each state and for the United States nationally. Cancer 2017;123:4982-93. Published 2017. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA. Published 2017. This article is a U

  5. Cell survival and radiation induced chromosome aberrations. Pt. 2

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bauchinger, M.; Schmid, E.; Braselmann, H.

    1986-01-01

    Human peripheral lymphocytes were irradiated in whole blood with 0.5-4.0 Gy of 220 kVp X-rays and the frequency of chromosome aberrations was determined in 1st or 2nd division metaphases discriminated by fluorescence plus giemsa staining. Using the empirical distributions of aberrations among cells, cell survival and transmission of aberrations were investigated. Considering both daughter cells, we found that 20% of fragments and 55% of dicentrics or ring chromosomes are lost during the 1st cell division; i.e. cell survival rate from 1st to 2nd generation is mainly influenced by anaphase bridging of these two-hit aberrations. Cell survival to 2nd mitosis was calculated considering this situation and compared with the survival derived from the fraction of M1 cells without unstable aberrations. The resulting shouldered survival curves showed significantly different slopes, indicating that cell reproductive death is overestimated in the latter approach. (orig.)

  6. Relationship between the Temporal Changes in Positron-Emission-Tomography-Imaging-Based Textural Features and Pathologic Response and Survival in Esophageal Cancer Patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yip, Stephen S F; Coroller, Thibaud P; Sanford, Nina N; Mamon, Harvey; Aerts, Hugo J W L; Berbeco, Ross I

    2016-01-01

    Although change in standardized uptake value (SUV) measures and PET-based textural features during treatment have shown promise in tumor response prediction, it is unclear which quantitative measure is the most predictive. We compared the relationship between PET-based features and pathologic response and overall survival with the SUV measures in esophageal cancer. Fifty-four esophageal cancer patients received PET/CT scans before and after chemoradiotherapy. Of these, 45 patients underwent surgery and were classified into complete, partial, and non-responders to the preoperative chemoradiation. SUVmax and SUVmean, two cooccurrence matrix (Entropy and Homogeneity), two run-length matrix (RLM) (high-gray-run emphasis and Short-run high-gray-run emphasis), and two size-zone matrix (high-gray-zone emphasis and short-zone high-gray emphasis) textures were computed. The relationship between the relative difference of each measure at different treatment time points and the pathologic response and overall survival was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC) and Kaplan-Meier statistics, respectively. All Textures, except Homogeneity, were better related to pathologic response than SUVmax and SUVmean. Entropy was found to significantly distinguish non-responders from the complete (AUC = 0.79, p = 1.7 × 10(-4)) and partial (AUC = 0.71, p = 0.01) responders. Non-responders can also be significantly differentiated from partial and complete responders by the change in the run-length and size-zone matrix textures (AUC = 0.71-0.76, p ≤ 0.02). Homogeneity, SUVmax, and SUVmean failed to differentiate between any of the responders (AUC = 0.50-0.57, p ≥ 0.46). However, none of the measures were found to significantly distinguish between complete and partial responders with AUC textures significantly discriminated patients with good and poor survival (log-rank p textures and survival were poorly related

  7. Optimization of equivalent uniform dose using the L-curve criterion

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chvetsov, Alexei V; Dempsey, James F; Palta, Jatinder R

    2007-01-01

    Optimization of equivalent uniform dose (EUD) in inverse planning for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) prevents variation in radiobiological effect between different radiotherapy treatment plans, which is due to variation in the pattern of dose nonuniformity. For instance, the survival fraction of clonogens would be consistent with the prescription when the optimized EUD is equal to the prescribed EUD. One of the problems in the practical implementation of this approach is that the spatial dose distribution in EUD-based inverse planning would be underdetermined because an unlimited number of nonuniform dose distributions can be computed for a prescribed value of EUD. Together with ill-posedness of the underlying integral equation, this may significantly increase the dose nonuniformity. To optimize EUD and keep dose nonuniformity within reasonable limits, we implemented into an EUD-based objective function an additional criterion which ensures the smoothness of beam intensity functions. This approach is similar to the variational regularization technique which was previously studied for the dose-based least-squares optimization. We show that the variational regularization together with the L-curve criterion for the regularization parameter can significantly reduce dose nonuniformity in EUD-based inverse planning

  8. Optimization of equivalent uniform dose using the L-curve criterion

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Chvetsov, Alexei V; Dempsey, James F; Palta, Jatinder R [Department of Radiation Oncology, University of Florida, Gainesville, FL 32610-0385 (United States)

    2007-09-21

    Optimization of equivalent uniform dose (EUD) in inverse planning for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) prevents variation in radiobiological effect between different radiotherapy treatment plans, which is due to variation in the pattern of dose nonuniformity. For instance, the survival fraction of clonogens would be consistent with the prescription when the optimized EUD is equal to the prescribed EUD. One of the problems in the practical implementation of this approach is that the spatial dose distribution in EUD-based inverse planning would be underdetermined because an unlimited number of nonuniform dose distributions can be computed for a prescribed value of EUD. Together with ill-posedness of the underlying integral equation, this may significantly increase the dose nonuniformity. To optimize EUD and keep dose nonuniformity within reasonable limits, we implemented into an EUD-based objective function an additional criterion which ensures the smoothness of beam intensity functions. This approach is similar to the variational regularization technique which was previously studied for the dose-based least-squares optimization. We show that the variational regularization together with the L-curve criterion for the regularization parameter can significantly reduce dose nonuniformity in EUD-based inverse planning.

  9. Optimization of equivalent uniform dose using the L-curve criterion.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chvetsov, Alexei V; Dempsey, James F; Palta, Jatinder R

    2007-10-07

    Optimization of equivalent uniform dose (EUD) in inverse planning for intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT) prevents variation in radiobiological effect between different radiotherapy treatment plans, which is due to variation in the pattern of dose nonuniformity. For instance, the survival fraction of clonogens would be consistent with the prescription when the optimized EUD is equal to the prescribed EUD. One of the problems in the practical implementation of this approach is that the spatial dose distribution in EUD-based inverse planning would be underdetermined because an unlimited number of nonuniform dose distributions can be computed for a prescribed value of EUD. Together with ill-posedness of the underlying integral equation, this may significantly increase the dose nonuniformity. To optimize EUD and keep dose nonuniformity within reasonable limits, we implemented into an EUD-based objective function an additional criterion which ensures the smoothness of beam intensity functions. This approach is similar to the variational regularization technique which was previously studied for the dose-based least-squares optimization. We show that the variational regularization together with the L-curve criterion for the regularization parameter can significantly reduce dose nonuniformity in EUD-based inverse planning.

  10. p-Curve and p-Hacking in Observational Research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bruns, Stephan B; Ioannidis, John P A

    2016-01-01

    The p-curve, the distribution of statistically significant p-values of published studies, has been used to make inferences on the proportion of true effects and on the presence of p-hacking in the published literature. We analyze the p-curve for observational research in the presence of p-hacking. We show by means of simulations that even with minimal omitted-variable bias (e.g., unaccounted confounding) p-curves based on true effects and p-curves based on null-effects with p-hacking cannot be reliably distinguished. We also demonstrate this problem using as practical example the evaluation of the effect of malaria prevalence on economic growth between 1960 and 1996. These findings call recent studies into question that use the p-curve to infer that most published research findings are based on true effects in the medical literature and in a wide range of disciplines. p-values in observational research may need to be empirically calibrated to be interpretable with respect to the commonly used significance threshold of 0.05. Violations of randomization in experimental studies may also result in situations where the use of p-curves is similarly unreliable.

  11. Using Survival Analysis to Understand Patterns of Sustainment within a System-Driven Implementation of Multiple Evidence-Based Practices for Children’s Mental Health Services

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Lauren Brookman-Frazee

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Evidence-based practice (EBP implementation requires substantial resources in workforce training; yet, failure to achieve long-term sustainment can result in poor return on investment. There is limited research on EBP sustainment in mental health services long after implementation. This study examined therapists’ continued vs. discontinued practice delivery based on administrative claims for reimbursement for six EBPs [Cognitive Behavioral Interventions for Trauma in Schools (CBITS, Child–Parent Psychotherapy, Managing and Adapting Practices (MAP, Seeking Safety (SS, Trauma-Focused Cognitive Behavior Therapy (TF-CBT, and Positive Parenting Program] adopted in a system-driven implementation effort in public mental health services for children. Our goal was to identify agency and therapist factors associated with a sustained EBP delivery. Survival analysis (i.e., Kaplan–Meier survival functions, log-rank tests, and Cox regressions was used to analyze 19 fiscal quarters (i.e., approximately 57 months of claims data from the Prevention and Early Intervention Transformation within the Los Angeles County Department of Mental Health. These data comprised 2,322,389 claims made by 6,873 therapists across 88 agencies. Survival time was represented by the time elapsed from therapists’ first to final claims for each practice and for any of the six EBPs. Results indicate that therapists continued to deliver at least one EBP for a mean survival time of 21.73 months (median = 18.70. When compared to a survival curve of the five other EBPs, CBITS, SS, and TP demonstrated a higher risk of delivery discontinuation, whereas MAP and TF-CBT demonstrated a lower risk of delivery discontinuation. A multivariate Cox regression model revealed that agency (centralization and service setting and therapist (demographics, discipline, and case-mix characteristics characteristics were significantly associated with risk of delivery discontinuation for any of

  12. Estimation of Curve Tracing Time in Supercapacitor based PV Characterization

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basu Pal, Sudipta; Das Bhattacharya, Konika; Mukherjee, Dipankar; Paul, Debkalyan

    2017-08-01

    Smooth and noise-free characterisation of photovoltaic (PV) generators have been revisited with renewed interest in view of large size PV arrays making inroads into the urban sector of major developing countries. Such practice has recently been observed to be confronted by the use of a suitable data acquisition system and also the lack of a supporting theoretical analysis to justify the accuracy of curve tracing. However, the use of a selected bank of supercapacitors can mitigate the said problems to a large extent. Assuming a piecewise linear analysis of the V-I characteristics of a PV generator, an accurate analysis of curve plotting time has been possible. The analysis has been extended to consider the effect of equivalent series resistance of the supercapacitor leading to increased accuracy (90-95%) of curve plotting times.

  13. Correlation between 2D and 3D flow curve modelling of DP steels using a microstructure-based RVE approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Ramazani, A.; Mukherjee, K.; Quade, H.; Prahl, U.; Bleck, W.

    2013-01-01

    A microstructure-based approach by means of representative volume elements (RVEs) is employed to evaluate the flow curve of DP steels using virtual tensile tests. Microstructures with different martensite fractions and morphologies are studied in two- and three-dimensional approaches. Micro sections of DP microstructures with various amounts of martensite have been converted to 2D RVEs, while 3D RVEs were constructed statistically with randomly distributed phases. A dislocation-based model is used to describe the flow curve of each ferrite and martensite phase separately as a function of carbon partitioning and microstructural features. Numerical tensile tests of RVE were carried out using the ABAQUS/Standard code to predict the flow behaviour of DP steels. It is observed that 2D plane strain modelling gives an underpredicted flow curve for DP steels, while the 3D modelling gives a quantitatively reasonable description of flow curve in comparison to the experimental data. In this work, a von Mises stress correlation factor σ 3D /σ 2D has been identified to compare the predicted flow curves of these two dimensionalities showing a third order polynomial relation with respect to martensite fraction and a second order polynomial relation with respect to equivalent plastic strain, respectively. The quantification of this polynomial correlation factor is performed based on laboratory-annealed DP600 chemistry with varying martensite content and it is validated for industrially produced DP qualities with various chemistry, strength level and martensite fraction.

  14. The estimation of I–V curves of PV panel using manufacturers’ I–V curves and evolutionary strategy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Barukčić, M.; Hederić, Ž.; Špoljarić, Ž.

    2014-01-01

    Highlights: • The approximation of a I–V curve by two linear and a sigmoid functions is proposed. • The sigmoid function is used to estimate the knee of the I–V curve. • Dependence on irradiance and temperature of sigmoid function parameters is proposed. • The sigmoid function is used to estimate maximum power point (MPP). - Abstract: The method for estimation of I–V curves of photovoltaic (PV) panel by analytic expression is presented in the paper. The problem is defined in the form of an optimization problem. The optimization problem objective is based on data from I–V curves obtained by manufacturers’ or measured I–V curves. In order to estimate PV panel parameters, the optimization problem is solved by using an evolutionary strategy. The proposed method is tested for different PV panel technologies using data sheets. In this method the I–V curve approximation with two linear and a sigmoid function is proposed. The method for estimating the knee of the I–V curve and maximum power point at any irradiance and temperature is proposed

  15. Development of a Summarized Health Index (SHI for use in predicting survival in sea turtles.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Tsung-Hsien Li

    Full Text Available Veterinary care plays an influential role in sea turtle rehabilitation, especially in endangered species. Physiological characteristics, hematological and plasma biochemistry profiles, are useful references for clinical management in animals, especially when animals are during the convalescence period. In this study, these factors associated with sea turtle surviving were analyzed. The blood samples were collected when sea turtles remained alive, and then animals were followed up for surviving status. The results indicated that significantly negative correlation was found between buoyancy disorders (BD and sea turtle surviving (p < 0.05. Furthermore, non-surviving sea turtles had significantly higher levels of aspartate aminotranspherase (AST, creatinine kinase (CK, creatinine and uric acid (UA than surviving sea turtles (all p < 0.05. After further analysis by multiple logistic regression model, only factors of BD, creatinine and UA were included in the equation for calculating summarized health index (SHI for each individual. Through evaluation by receiver operating characteristic (ROC curve, the result indicated that the area under curve was 0.920 ± 0.037, and a cut-off SHI value of 2.5244 showed 80.0% sensitivity and 86.7% specificity in predicting survival. Therefore, the developed SHI could be a useful index to evaluate health status of sea turtles and to improve veterinary care at rehabilitation facilities.

  16. Survival of Direct Posterior Composites With and Without a Bulk Fill Base.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGuirk, C; Hussain, F; Millar, B J

    2017-09-01

    Direct composite restorations are increasingly popular and a flowable bulk-fill base material (SDR, Dentsply) claims to minimise stress through a more flexible polymerisation process. This retrospective audit of restorations placed in general practice compares SDR based restorations with conventional composite restorations. Restorations were all placed by one operator using a similar clinical technique and were audited as Group G, placed with a conventional layering composite (G-aenial, GC) and Group S which had a bulk-fill base of SDR (Dentsply) and then were covered with G-aenial (GC). Data regarding survival, post-operative sensitivity and mode of failure were recorded and analysed. In total 54 Group S restorations and 71 Group G restorations were followed for a minimum of 24 months. Group S had a 92.6% survival and Group G 93%. Group S was more prone to failure by tooth fracture (p=0.033). In both groups failure was more likely in larger cavities, in both those with an increased number of surfaces (p⟨0.001) and cuspal coverage (p=0.004). There appears to be similar survival of the two techniques in the short-term although there were significantly more tooth fractures in teeth restored with SDR. Copyright© 2017 Dennis Barber Ltd.

  17. Understanding survival analysis: Kaplan-Meier estimate.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goel, Manish Kumar; Khanna, Pardeep; Kishore, Jugal

    2010-10-01

    Kaplan-Meier estimate is one of the best options to be used to measure the fraction of subjects living for a certain amount of time after treatment. In clinical trials or community trials, the effect of an intervention is assessed by measuring the number of subjects survived or saved after that intervention over a period of time. The time starting from a defined point to the occurrence of a given event, for example death is called as survival time and the analysis of group data as survival analysis. This can be affected by subjects under study that are uncooperative and refused to be remained in the study or when some of the subjects may not experience the event or death before the end of the study, although they would have experienced or died if observation continued, or we lose touch with them midway in the study. We label these situations as censored observations. The Kaplan-Meier estimate is the simplest way of computing the survival over time in spite of all these difficulties associated with subjects or situations. The survival curve can be created assuming various situations. It involves computing of probabilities of occurrence of event at a certain point of time and multiplying these successive probabilities by any earlier computed probabilities to get the final estimate. This can be calculated for two groups of subjects and also their statistical difference in the survivals. This can be used in Ayurveda research when they are comparing two drugs and looking for survival of subjects.

  18. NormaCurve: a SuperCurve-based method that simultaneously quantifies and normalizes reverse phase protein array data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sylvie Troncale

    Full Text Available MOTIVATION: Reverse phase protein array (RPPA is a powerful dot-blot technology that allows studying protein expression levels as well as post-translational modifications in a large number of samples simultaneously. Yet, correct interpretation of RPPA data has remained a major challenge for its broad-scale application and its translation into clinical research. Satisfying quantification tools are available to assess a relative protein expression level from a serial dilution curve. However, appropriate tools allowing the normalization of the data for external sources of variation are currently missing. RESULTS: Here we propose a new method, called NormaCurve, that allows simultaneous quantification and normalization of RPPA data. For this, we modified the quantification method SuperCurve in order to include normalization for (i background fluorescence, (ii variation in the total amount of spotted protein and (iii spatial bias on the arrays. Using a spike-in design with a purified protein, we test the capacity of different models to properly estimate normalized relative expression levels. The best performing model, NormaCurve, takes into account a negative control array without primary antibody, an array stained with a total protein stain and spatial covariates. We show that this normalization is reproducible and we discuss the number of serial dilutions and the number of replicates that are required to obtain robust data. We thus provide a ready-to-use method for reliable and reproducible normalization of RPPA data, which should facilitate the interpretation and the development of this promising technology. AVAILABILITY: The raw data, the scripts and the normacurve package are available at the following web site: http://microarrays.curie.fr.

  19. Cell-based neurotrophin treatment supports long-term auditory neuron survival in the deaf guinea pig.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gillespie, Lisa N; Zanin, Mark P; Shepherd, Robert K

    2015-01-28

    The cochlear implant provides auditory cues to profoundly deaf patients by electrically stimulating the primary auditory neurons (ANs) of the cochlea. However, ANs degenerate in deafness; the preservation of a robust AN target population, in combination with advances in cochlear implant technology, may provide improved hearing outcomes for cochlear implant patients. The exogenous delivery of neurotrophins such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and neurotrophin-3 is well known to support AN survival in deafness, and cell-based therapies provide a potential clinically viable option for delivering neurotrophins into the deaf cochlea. This study utilized cells that were genetically modified to express BDNF and encapsulated in alginate microspheres, and investigated AN survival in the deaf guinea pig following (a) cell-based neurotrophin treatment in conjunction with chronic electrical stimulation from a cochlear implant, and (b) long-term cell-based neurotrophin delivery. In comparison to deafened controls, there was significantly greater AN survival following the cell-based neurotrophin treatment, and there were ongoing survival effects for at least six months. In addition, functional benefits were observed following cell-based neurotrophin treatment and chronic electrical stimulation, with a statistically significant decrease in electrically evoked auditory brainstem response thresholds observed during the experimental period. This study demonstrates that cell-based therapies, in conjunction with a cochlear implant, shows potential as a clinically transferable means of providing neurotrophin treatment to support AN survival in deafness. This technology also has the potential to deliver other therapeutic agents, and to be used in conjunction with other biomedical devices for the treatment of a variety of neurodegenerative conditions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  20. A Comparison of Growth and Survival of Aquacultured Juvenile Florida Pompano fed Fishmeal and Plant-Based Diets

    Science.gov (United States)

    Budden, D.

    2016-02-01

    We investigated the growth and survival of aquacultured juvenile Florida Pompano (Trachinotus carolinus) fed two different diets. Pompano (initial weight 7.7 g /fish) were randomly assigned to one of two dietary treatments: Zeigler pellets (fishmeal; 35% protein, 5% lipid) and a plant-based Repashy Soilent Green algae gel (plant-based; 35% protein, 6% lipid). Fish were fed rations of 5% body weight twice daily for eight weeks. Despite nearly equivalent proximate compositions for the two feeds, survival rates were significantly affected by diet. All fish fed the Zeigler diet survived; however, mortality was observed in 92% of the fish fed the Repashy diet. At the end of the trial, mean weight gain of surviving pompano was highest in fish fed Zeigler pellets. Mean specific growth rate (SGR) for fish fed the Zeigler diet (0.24% per day) was higher than for fish fed Repashy (-2.44%).While plant-based feeds have been successfully used with the species, these results suggest that the plant-based Repashy diet is not suitable for survival or growth of aquacultured Florida pompano.

  1. Effect of low fluencies of near-ultraviolet radiation on Bacteroides fragilis survival

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Slade, H.J.K.; Jones, D.T.; Woods, D.R.

    1982-01-01

    Bacteroides fragilis is a convenient obligate anaerobe for an investigation on the effect of near-UV irradiation since the authors have shown that it can be maintained in aerobic solutions for at least 6 h without loss in viability. Furthermore, they recently demonstrated that B. fragilis differs from other bacteria in that it is more sensitive to far-UV (254 nm) radiation in the presence of oxygen. The role of oxygen on near-UV survival in B. fragilis, was investigated. The effect of chloramphenicol was also studied. Survival curves are presented. B. fragilis Bf-2 cells irradiated with increasing fluencies of near-UV light under anaerobic conditions showed no loss in viability. A 'V'-shaped survival curve was obtained when cells were irradiated aerobically. After the initial reduction in viability with fluencies up to 1.5 kJ/m 2 further irradiation resulted in the recovery of colony-forming ability which was maximal at 2.6 kJ/m 2 and remained at this level up to fluencies of 4 kJ/m 2 . (Auth.)

  2. Long-term hydrological simulation based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, Surendra Kumar; Singh, Vijay P.

    2004-05-01

    Presenting a critical review of daily flow simulation models based on the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN), this paper introduces a more versatile model based on the modified SCS-CN method, which specializes into seven cases. The proposed model was applied to the Hemavati watershed (area = 600 km2) in India and was found to yield satisfactory results in both calibration and validation. The model conserved monthly and annual runoff volumes satisfactorily. A sensitivity analysis of the model parameters was performed, including the effect of variation in storm duration. Finally, to investigate the model components, all seven variants of the modified version were tested for their suitability.

  3. Survival Analysis and its Associated Factors of Beta Thalassemia Major in Hamadan Province

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Reza Zamani

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Background: There currently is a lack of knowledge about the long-term survival of patients with beta thalassemia (BT, particularly in regions with low incidence of the disease. The aim of the present study was to determine the survival rate of the patients with BT major and the factors associated with the survival time. Methods: This retrospective cohort study was performed in Hamadan province, located in the west of Iran. The study included patients that referred to the provincial hospitals during 16 year period from 1997 to 2013. The follow up of each subject was calculated from the date of birth to the date of death. Demographic and clinical data were extracted from patients’ medical records using a checklist. Statistical analysis included the Kaplan-Meier method to analyze survivals, log-rank to compare curves between groups, and Cox regression for multivariate prognostic analysis. Results: A total of 133 patients with BT major were enrolled, 54.9% of whom were male and 66.2% were urban. The 10-, 20- and 30-year survival rate for all patients were 98.3%, 88.4% and 80.5%, respectively. Based on hazard ratio (HR, we found that accompanied diseases (P=0.01, blood type (P=0.03 and residency status (P=0.01 were significant predictors for the survival time of patients. Conclusion: The survival rate of BT patients has improved. Future researches such as prospective designs are required for the estimation of survival rate and to find other prognostic factors, which have reliable sources of data.

  4. Value-based contracting innovated Medicare advantage healthcare delivery and improved survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mandal, Aloke K; Tagomori, Gene K; Felix, Randell V; Howell, Scott C

    2017-02-01

    In Medicare Advantage (MA) with its CMS Hierarchical Condition Categories (CMS-HCC) payment model, CMS reimburses private plans (Medicare Advantage Organizations [MAOs]) with prospective, monthly, health-based or risk-adjusted, capitated payments. The effect of this payment methodology on healthcare delivery remains debatable. How value-based contracting generates cost efficiencies and improves clinical outcomes in MA is studied. A difference in contracting arrangements between an MAO and 2 provider groups facilitated an intervention-control, preintervention-postintervention, difference-in-differences approach among statistically similar, elderly, community-dwelling MA enrollees within one metropolitan statistical area. Starting in 2009, for intervention-group MA enrollees, the MAO and a provider group agreed to full-risk capitation combined with a revenue gainshare. The gainshare was based on increases in the Risk Adjustment Factor (RAF), which modified the CMS-HCC payments. For the control group, the MAO continued to reimburse another provider group through fee-for-service. RAF, utilization, and survival were followed until December 31, 2012. The intervention group's mean RAF increased significantly (P based visits (P based care for these MA enrollees with multiple comorbidities, a 6% survival benefit with a 32.8% lower hazard of death (P Value-based contracting can drive utilization patterns and improve clinical outcomes among chronically ill, elderly MA members.

  5. Characterizing time series via complexity-entropy curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ribeiro, Haroldo V.; Jauregui, Max; Zunino, Luciano; Lenzi, Ervin K.

    2017-06-01

    The search for patterns in time series is a very common task when dealing with complex systems. This is usually accomplished by employing a complexity measure such as entropies and fractal dimensions. However, such measures usually only capture a single aspect of the system dynamics. Here, we propose a family of complexity measures for time series based on a generalization of the complexity-entropy causality plane. By replacing the Shannon entropy by a monoparametric entropy (Tsallis q entropy) and after considering the proper generalization of the statistical complexity (q complexity), we build up a parametric curve (the q -complexity-entropy curve) that is used for characterizing and classifying time series. Based on simple exact results and numerical simulations of stochastic processes, we show that these curves can distinguish among different long-range, short-range, and oscillating correlated behaviors. Also, we verify that simulated chaotic and stochastic time series can be distinguished based on whether these curves are open or closed. We further test this technique in experimental scenarios related to chaotic laser intensity, stock price, sunspot, and geomagnetic dynamics, confirming its usefulness. Finally, we prove that these curves enhance the automatic classification of time series with long-range correlations and interbeat intervals of healthy subjects and patients with heart disease.

  6. Codes and curves

    CERN Document Server

    Walker, Judy L

    2000-01-01

    When information is transmitted, errors are likely to occur. Coding theory examines efficient ways of packaging data so that these errors can be detected, or even corrected. The traditional tools of coding theory have come from combinatorics and group theory. Lately, however, coding theorists have added techniques from algebraic geometry to their toolboxes. In particular, by re-interpreting the Reed-Solomon codes, one can see how to define new codes based on divisors on algebraic curves. For instance, using modular curves over finite fields, Tsfasman, Vladut, and Zink showed that one can define a sequence of codes with asymptotically better parameters than any previously known codes. This monograph is based on a series of lectures the author gave as part of the IAS/PCMI program on arithmetic algebraic geometry. Here, the reader is introduced to the exciting field of algebraic geometric coding theory. Presenting the material in the same conversational tone of the lectures, the author covers linear codes, inclu...

  7. Can cell survival parameters be deduced from non-clonogenic assays of radiation damage to normal tissue

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Michalowski, A.; Wheldon, T.E.; Kirk, J.

    1984-01-01

    The relationship between dose-response curves for large scale radiation injury to tissues and survival curves for clonogenic cells is not necessarily simple. Sterilization of clonogenic cells occurs near-instantaneously compared with the protracted lag period for gross injury to tissues. Moreover, with some types of macroscopic damage, the shapes of the dose-response curves may depend on time of assay. Changes in the area or volume of irradiated tissue may also influence the shapes of these curves. The temporal pattern of expression of large scale injury also varies between tissues, and two distinct groups can be recognized. In rapidly proliferating tissues, lag period is almost independent of dose, whilst in slowly proliferating tissues, it is inversely proportional to dose. This might be explained by invoking differences in corresponding proliferative structures of the tissues. (Three compartmental Type H versus one compartmental Type F proliferative organization). For the second group of tissues particularly, mathematical modelling suggests a systematic dissociation of the dose-response curves for clonogenic cell survival and large scale injury. In particular, it may be difficult to disentangle the contributions made to inter-fraction sparing by cellular repair processes and by proliferation-related factors. (U.K.)

  8. Modeling Patterns of Activities using Activity Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawadi, Prafulla N; Cook, Diane J; Schmitter-Edgecombe, Maureen

    2016-06-01

    Pervasive computing offers an unprecedented opportunity to unobtrusively monitor behavior and use the large amount of collected data to perform analysis of activity-based behavioral patterns. In this paper, we introduce the notion of an activity curve , which represents an abstraction of an individual's normal daily routine based on automatically-recognized activities. We propose methods to detect changes in behavioral routines by comparing activity curves and use these changes to analyze the possibility of changes in cognitive or physical health. We demonstrate our model and evaluate our change detection approach using a longitudinal smart home sensor dataset collected from 18 smart homes with older adult residents. Finally, we demonstrate how big data-based pervasive analytics such as activity curve-based change detection can be used to perform functional health assessment. Our evaluation indicates that correlations do exist between behavior and health changes and that these changes can be automatically detected using smart homes, machine learning, and big data-based pervasive analytics.

  9. Conditional net survival: Relevant prognostic information for colorectal cancer survivors. A French population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Drouillard, Antoine; Bouvier, Anne-Marie; Rollot, Fabien; Faivre, Jean; Jooste, Valérie; Lepage, Côme

    2015-07-01

    Traditionally, survival estimates have been reported as survival from the time of diagnosis. A patient's probability of survival changes according to time elapsed since the diagnosis and this is known as conditional survival. The aim was to estimate 5-year net conditional survival in patients with colorectal cancer in a well-defined French population at yearly intervals up to 5 years. Our study included 18,300 colorectal cancers diagnosed between 1976 and 2008 and registered in the population-based digestive cancer registry of Burgundy (France). We calculated conditional 5-year net survival, using the Pohar Perme estimator, for every additional year survived after diagnosis from 1 to 5 years. The initial 5-year net survival estimates varied between 89% for stage I and 9% for advanced stage cancer. The corresponding 5-year net survival for patients alive after 5 years was 95% and 75%. Stage II and III patients who survived 5 years had a similar probability of surviving 5 more years, respectively 87% and 84%. For survivors after the first year following diagnosis, five-year conditional net survival was similar regardless of age class and period of diagnosis. For colorectal cancer survivors, conditional net survival provides relevant and complementary prognostic information for patients and clinicians. Copyright © 2015 Editrice Gastroenterologica Italiana S.r.l. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  10. Methods for extracting dose response curves from radiation therapy data. I. A unified approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Herring, D.F.

    1980-01-01

    This paper discusses an approach to fitting models to radiation therapy data in order to extract dose response curves for tumor local control and normal tissue damage. The approach is based on the method of maximum likelihood and is illustrated by several examples. A general linear logistic equation which leads to the Ellis nominal standard dose (NSD) equation is discussed; the fit of this equation to experimental data for mouse foot skin reactions produced by fractionated irradiation is described. A logistic equation based on the concept that normal tissue reactions are associated with the surviving fraction of cells is also discussed, and the fit of this equation to the same set of mouse foot skin reaction data is also described. These two examples illustrate the importance of choosing a model based on underlying mechanisms when one seeks to attach biological significance to a model's parameters

  11. Flow over riblet curved surfaces

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Loureiro, J B R; Freire, A P Silva, E-mail: atila@mecanica.ufrj.br [Mechanical Engineering Program, Federal University of Rio de Janeiro (COPPE/UFRJ), C.P. 68503, 21.941-972, Rio de Janeiro, RJ (Brazil)

    2011-12-22

    The present work studies the mechanics of turbulent drag reduction over curved surfaces by riblets. The effects of surface modification on flow separation over steep and smooth curved surfaces are investigated. Four types of two-dimensional surfaces are studied based on the morphometric parameters that describe the body of a blue whale. Local measurements of mean velocity and turbulence profiles are obtained through laser Doppler anemometry (LDA) and particle image velocimetry (PIV).

  12. Integrated analysis on static/dynamic aeroelasticity of curved panels based on a modified local piston theory

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, Zhichun; Zhou, Jian; Gu, Yingsong

    2014-10-01

    A flow field modified local piston theory, which is applied to the integrated analysis on static/dynamic aeroelastic behaviors of curved panels, is proposed in this paper. The local flow field parameters used in the modification are obtained by CFD technique which has the advantage to simulate the steady flow field accurately. This flow field modified local piston theory for aerodynamic loading is applied to the analysis of static aeroelastic deformation and flutter stabilities of curved panels in hypersonic flow. In addition, comparisons are made between results obtained by using the present method and curvature modified method. It shows that when the curvature of the curved panel is relatively small, the static aeroelastic deformations and flutter stability boundaries obtained by these two methods have little difference, while for curved panels with larger curvatures, the static aeroelastic deformation obtained by the present method is larger and the flutter stability boundary is smaller compared with those obtained by the curvature modified method, and the discrepancy increases with the increasing of curvature of panels. Therefore, the existing curvature modified method is non-conservative compared to the proposed flow field modified method based on the consideration of hypersonic flight vehicle safety, and the proposed flow field modified local piston theory for curved panels enlarges the application range of piston theory.

  13. The survival effects of V79 cells irradiated with carbon ions in different let

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wang Jufang; Zhou Guangming; He Jing; Li Wenjian; Li Qiang; Dang Bingrong; Li Xinglin; Weng Xiaoqiong; Xie Hongmei; Wei Zengquan; Gao Qingxiang

    2001-01-01

    The survival of cultured Chinese V79 hamster cells irradiated with carbon ions with different LETs were investigated. Irradiation was performed at the heavy Ion Research Facility in Lanzhou (HIRFL). Results were compared with those obtained from the experiments with γ rats and could be concluded as follows: The survival curves for carbon ions showed as straight lines and were fitted to the one-target one-hit model, but for γ rays the curves with shoulders were fitted to the multi-target one-hit model. As the LETs were 125, 200 and 700 keV/μm for carbon ions, the inactivation cross section 35, 12 and 8 μm 2 , respectively, which suggested that under the experimental conditions, the lower the LET of carbon ions, the more seriously the irradiation killed cells. In the case of 125 keV/μm, the RBEs of carbon ions at the 0.1 and 0.37 survival levels were 1.47 and 2.19 respectively

  14. The effect of an asynchronous population of cells on the initial slope of dose-effect curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chadwick, K.H.; Leenhouts, H.P.

    1975-01-01

    The molecular theory of cell survival gives an equation S = exp [ -p(αD + β D 2 )] which can be used to analyse dose-effect curves for synchronized cells. The variation in the coefficients α and β through the cell cycle has been found to be consistent for the different radiation types and is compatible with the induction of DNA double-strand breaks which is assumed in the theory to be the mechanism which is responsible for the biological effect. The theory predicts that low-LET radiation will have an initial slope, given by the coefficient α, and the consistency of the analysis of synchronized cell survival substantiates this prediction. In the molecular theory the induction of mutations has also been proposed to arise from DNA double-strand breaks and to be represented by the equation M = 1 - exp [-q(αD + β D 2 )]. This implies that at low doses of low-LET radiation the radiobiological effect will be linear with dose and that high-dose results may be analysed to provide estimates of the radiosensitivity of cells to low doses of radiation for radiological protection purposes. In an asynchronous population of cells it is possible that a small proportion of very radiosensitive cells can lead to significant deviations from this straightforward analysis. This 'Oftedal effect' is applied using the molecular theory to give a general theoretical relationship between the induction of mutations and cell survival. The theoretical relationship is compared with experimental data available from the literature. It is concluded that the initial slope of a mutation or cancer induction curve may be more relevant to the determination of the radiation sensitivity at low doses than the initial slope of a survival curve. (author)

  15. A Method for Formulizing Disaster Evacuation Demand Curves Based on SI Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yulei Song

    2016-10-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of evacuation demand curves is a crucial step in the disaster evacuation plan making, which directly affects the performance of the disaster evacuation. In this paper, we discuss the factors influencing individual evacuation decision making (whether and when to leave and summarize them into four kinds: individual characteristics, social influence, geographic location, and warning degree. In the view of social contagion of decision making, a method based on Susceptible-Infective (SI model is proposed to formulize the disaster evacuation demand curves to address both social influence and other factors’ effects. The disaster event of the “Tianjin Explosions” is used as a case study to illustrate the modeling results influenced by the four factors and perform the sensitivity analyses of the key parameters of the model. Some interesting phenomena are found and discussed, which is meaningful for authorities to make specific evacuation plans. For example, due to the lower social influence in isolated communities, extra actions might be taken to accelerate evacuation process in those communities.

  16. Fissure sealants in caries prevention:a practice-based study using survival analysis

    OpenAIRE

    Leskinen, K. (Kaja)

    2010-01-01

    Abstract The purpose of this study was to analyse the effectiveness and cost of fissure sealant treatment in preventing dental caries in children in a practice-based research network using survival analysis. The survival times of first permanent molars in children were analysed in three countries: in Finland (age cohorts 1970–1972 and 1980–1982), in Sweden (1980–1982) and in Greece (1980–1982), and additionally at two municipal health centres in Finland (age cohorts 1988–1990 in Kemi...

  17. Evaluation of the Weibull and log normal distribution functions as survival models of Escherichia coli under isothermal and non isothermal conditions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aragao, Glaucia M F; Corradini, Maria G; Normand, Mark D; Peleg, Micha

    2007-11-01

    Published survival curves of Escherichia coli in two growth media, with and without the presence of salt, at various temperatures and in a Greek eggplant salad having various levels of essential oil, all had a characteristic downward concavity when plotted on semi logarithmic coordinates. Some also exhibited what appeared as a 'shoulder' of considerable length. Regardless of whether a shoulder was noticed, the survival pattern could be considered as a manifestation of an underlying unimodal distribution of the cells' death times. Mathematically, the data could be described equally well by the Weibull and log normal distribution functions, which had similar modes, means, standard deviations and coefficients of skewness. When plotted in their probability density function (PDF) form, the curves also appeared very similar visually. This enabled us to quantify and compare the effect of temperature or essential oil concentration on the organism's survival in terms of these temporal distributions' characteristics. Increased lethality was generally expressed in a shorter mean and mode, a smaller standard deviation and increased overall symmetry as judged by the distributions' degree of skewness. The 'shoulder', as expected, simply indicated that the distribution's standard deviation was much smaller than its mode. Rate models based on the two distribution functions could be used to predict non isothermal survival patterns. They were derived on the assumption that the momentary inactivation rate is the isothermal rate at the momentary temperature at a time that corresponds to the momentary survival ratio. In this application, however, the Weibullian model with a fixed power was not only simpler and more convenient mathematically than the one based on the log normal distribution, but it also provided more accurate estimates of the dynamic inactivation patterns.

  18. Community-Based Multidisciplinary Computed Tomography Screening Program Improves Lung Cancer Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, Daniel L; Mayfield, William R; Luu, Theresa D; Helms, Gerald A; Muster, Alan R; Beckler, Vickie J; Cann, Aaron

    2016-05-01

    Lung cancer is the most common cause of cancer deaths in the United States. Overall survival is less than 20%, with the majority of patients presenting with advanced disease. The National Lung Screening Trial, performed mainly in academic medical centers, showed that cancer mortality can be reduced with computed tomography (CT) screening compared with chest radiography in high-risk patients. To determine whether this survival advantage can be duplicated in a community-based multidisciplinary thoracic oncology program, we initiated a CT scan screening program for lung cancer within an established health care system. In 2008, we launched a lung cancer CT screening program within the WellStar Health System (WHS) consisting of five hospitals, three health parks, 140 outpatient medical offices, and 12 imaging centers that provide care in a five-county area of approximately 1.4 million people in Metro-Atlanta. Screening criteria incorporated were the International Early Lung Cancer Action Program (2008 to 2010) and National Comprehensive Cancer Network guidelines (2011 to 2013) for moderate- and high-risk patients. A total of 1,267 persons underwent CT lung cancer screening in WHS from 2008 through 2013; 53% were men, 87% were 50 years of age or older, and 83% were current or former smokers. Noncalcified indeterminate pulmonary nodules were found in 518 patients (41%). Thirty-six patients (2.8%) underwent a diagnostic procedure for positive findings on their CT scan; 30 proved to have cancer, 28 (2.2%) primary lung cancer and 2 metastatic cancer, and 6 had benign disease. Fourteen patients (50%) had their lung cancer discovered on their initial CT scan, 11 on subsequent scans associated with indeterminate pulmonary nodules growth and 3 patients who had a new indeterminate pulmonary nodules. Only 15 (54%) of these 28 patients would have qualified as a National Lung Screening Trial high-risk patient; 75% had stage I or II disease. Overall 5-year survival was 64% and 5-year

  19. An Elliptic Curve Based Schnorr Cloud Security Model in Distributed Environment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vinothkumar Muthurajan

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Cloud computing requires the security upgrade in data transmission approaches. In general, key-based encryption/decryption (symmetric and asymmetric mechanisms ensure the secure data transfer between the devices. The symmetric key mechanisms (pseudorandom function provide minimum protection level compared to asymmetric key (RSA, AES, and ECC schemes. The presence of expired content and the irrelevant resources cause unauthorized data access adversely. This paper investigates how the integrity and secure data transfer are improved based on the Elliptic Curve based Schnorr scheme. This paper proposes a virtual machine based cloud model with Hybrid Cloud Security Algorithm (HCSA to remove the expired content. The HCSA-based auditing improves the malicious activity prediction during the data transfer. The duplication in the cloud server degrades the performance of EC-Schnorr based encryption schemes. This paper utilizes the blooming filter concept to avoid the cloud server duplication. The combination of EC-Schnorr and blooming filter efficiently improves the security performance. The comparative analysis between proposed HCSA and the existing Distributed Hash Table (DHT regarding execution time, computational overhead, and auditing time with auditing requests and servers confirms the effectiveness of HCSA in the cloud security model creation.

  20. An Elliptic Curve Based Schnorr Cloud Security Model in Distributed Environment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Muthurajan, Vinothkumar; Narayanasamy, Balaji

    2016-01-01

    Cloud computing requires the security upgrade in data transmission approaches. In general, key-based encryption/decryption (symmetric and asymmetric) mechanisms ensure the secure data transfer between the devices. The symmetric key mechanisms (pseudorandom function) provide minimum protection level compared to asymmetric key (RSA, AES, and ECC) schemes. The presence of expired content and the irrelevant resources cause unauthorized data access adversely. This paper investigates how the integrity and secure data transfer are improved based on the Elliptic Curve based Schnorr scheme. This paper proposes a virtual machine based cloud model with Hybrid Cloud Security Algorithm (HCSA) to remove the expired content. The HCSA-based auditing improves the malicious activity prediction during the data transfer. The duplication in the cloud server degrades the performance of EC-Schnorr based encryption schemes. This paper utilizes the blooming filter concept to avoid the cloud server duplication. The combination of EC-Schnorr and blooming filter efficiently improves the security performance. The comparative analysis between proposed HCSA and the existing Distributed Hash Table (DHT) regarding execution time, computational overhead, and auditing time with auditing requests and servers confirms the effectiveness of HCSA in the cloud security model creation.

  1. Vulnerability curves vs. vulnerability indicators: application of an indicator-based methodology for debris-flow hazards

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papathoma-Köhle, Maria

    2016-08-01

    The assessment of the physical vulnerability of elements at risk as part of the risk analysis is an essential aspect for the development of strategies and structural measures for risk reduction. Understanding, analysing and, if possible, quantifying physical vulnerability is a prerequisite for designing strategies and adopting tools for its reduction. The most common methods for assessing physical vulnerability are vulnerability matrices, vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators; however, in most of the cases, these methods are used in a conflicting way rather than in combination. The article focuses on two of these methods: vulnerability curves and vulnerability indicators. Vulnerability curves express physical vulnerability as a function of the intensity of the process and the degree of loss, considering, in individual cases only, some structural characteristics of the affected buildings. However, a considerable amount of studies argue that vulnerability assessment should focus on the identification of these variables that influence the vulnerability of an element at risk (vulnerability indicators). In this study, an indicator-based methodology (IBM) for mountain hazards including debris flow (Kappes et al., 2012) is applied to a case study for debris flows in South Tyrol, where in the past a vulnerability curve has been developed. The relatively "new" indicator-based method is being scrutinised and recommendations for its improvement are outlined. The comparison of the two methodological approaches and their results is challenging since both methodological approaches deal with vulnerability in a different way. However, it is still possible to highlight their weaknesses and strengths, show clearly that both methodologies are necessary for the assessment of physical vulnerability and provide a preliminary "holistic methodological framework" for physical vulnerability assessment showing how the two approaches may be used in combination in the future.

  2. Designing an ASIP for cryptographic pairings over Barreto-Naehrig curves

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kammler, D.; Zhang, D.; Schwabe, P.; Scharwaechter, H.; Langenberg, M.; Auras, D.; Ascheid, G.; Mathar, R.; Clavier, C.; Gaj, K.

    2009-01-01

    This paper presents a design-space exploration of an application-specific instruction-set processor (ASIP) for the computation of various cryptographic pairings over Barreto-Naehrig curves (BN curves). Cryptographic pairings are based on elliptic curves over finite fields—in the case of BN curves a

  3. Radiosensitivity of different human tumor cells lines grown as multicellular spheroids determined from growth curves and survival data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Schwachoefer, J.H.C.; Crooijmans, R.P.; van Gasteren, J.J.; Hoogenhout, J.; Jerusalem, C.R.; Kal, H.B.; Theeuwes, A.G.

    1989-01-01

    Five human tumor cell lines were grown as multicellular tumor spheroids (MTS) to determine whether multicellular tumor spheroids derived from different types of tumors would show tumor-type dependent differences in response to single-dose irradiation, and whether these differences paralleled clinical behavior. Multicellular tumor spheroids of two neuroblastoma, one lung adenocarcinoma, one melanoma, and a squamous cell carcinoma of the oral tongue, were studied in terms of growth delay, calculated cell survival, and spheroid control dose50 (SCD50). Growth delay and cell survival analysis for the tumor cell lines showed sensitivities that correlated well with clinical behavior of the tumor types of origin. Similar to other studies on melanoma multicellular tumor spheroids our spheroid control dose50 results for the melanoma cell line deviated from the general pattern of sensitivity. This might be due to the location of surviving cells, which prohibits proliferation of surviving cells and hence growth of melanoma multicellular tumor spheroids. This study demonstrates that radiosensitivity of human tumor cell lines can be evaluated in terms of growth delay, calculated cell survival, and spheroid control dose50 when grown as multicellular tumor spheroids. The sensitivity established from these evaluations parallels clinical behavior, thus offering a unique tool for the in vitro analysis of human tumor radiosensitivity

  4. Remote sensing used for power curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wagner, R; Joergensen, H E; Paulsen, U S; Larsen, T J; Antoniou, I; Thesbjerg, L

    2008-01-01

    Power curve measurement for large wind turbines requires taking into account more parameters than only the wind speed at hub height. Based on results from aerodynamic simulations, an equivalent wind speed taking the wind shear into account was defined and found to reduce the power standard deviation in the power curve significantly. Two LiDARs and a SoDAR are used to measure the wind profile in front of a wind turbine. These profiles are used to calculate the equivalent wind speed. The comparison of the power curves obtained with the three instruments to the traditional power curve, obtained using a cup anemometer measurement, confirms the results obtained from the simulations. Using LiDAR profiles reduces the error in power curve measurement, when these are used as relative instrument together with a cup anemometer. Results from the SoDAR do not show such promising results, probably because of noisy measurements resulting in distorted profiles

  5. Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME KIC and KIR fracture toughness reference curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, K.; Rintamaa, R.

    1998-01-01

    Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the 'Master curve', has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the Master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original data base was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound Master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K IC -reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound Master curve corresponds to the K IR -reference curve. (orig.)

  6. A study of swing-curve physics in diffraction-based overlay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattacharyya, Kaustuve; den Boef, Arie; Storms, Greet; van Heijst, Joost; Noot, Marc; An, Kevin; Park, Noh-Kyoung; Jeon, Se-Ra; Oh, Nang-Lyeom; McNamara, Elliott; van de Mast, Frank; Oh, SeungHwa; Lee, Seung Yoon; Hwang, Chan; Lee, Kuntack

    2016-03-01

    With the increase of process complexity in advanced nodes, the requirements of process robustness in overlay metrology continues to tighten. Especially with the introduction of newer materials in the film-stack along with typical stack variations (thickness, optical properties, profile asymmetry etc.), the signal formation physics in diffraction-based overlay (DBO) becomes an important aspect to apply in overlay metrology target and recipe selection. In order to address the signal formation physics, an effort is made towards studying the swing-curve phenomena through wavelength and polarizations on production stacks using simulations as well as experimental technique using DBO. The results provide a wealth of information on target and recipe selection for robustness. Details from simulation and measurements will be reported in this technical publication.

  7. RBEOER: a FORTRAN program for the computation of RBEs, OERs, survival ratios, and the effects of fractionation using the theory of dual radiation action

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zaider, M.; Dicello, J.F.

    1978-05-01

    The computer code RBEOER calculates RBEs, OERs and survival curves as a function of the dose delivered to a biological system and the temporal distribution of the dose (fractionation). The method of calculation is based on the theory of dual radiation action. The basic formalism and the input parameters are described. A sample output is presented

  8. Dissolution glow curve in LLD

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Haverkamp, U.; Wiezorek, C.; Poetter, R.

    1990-01-01

    Lyoluminescence dosimetry is based upon light emission during dissolution of previously irradiated dosimetric materials. The lyoluminescence signal is expressed in the dissolution glow curve. These curves begin, depending on the dissolution system, with a high peak followed by an exponentially decreasing intensity. System parameters that influence the graph of the dissolution glow curve, are, for example, injection speed, temperature and pH value of the solution and the design of the dissolution cell. The initial peak does not significantly correlate with the absorbed dose, it is mainly an effect of the injection. The decay of the curve consists of two exponential components: one fast and one slow. The components depend on the absorbed dose and the dosimetric materials used. In particular, the slow component correlates with the absorbed dose. In contrast to the fast component the argument of the exponential function of the slow component is independent of the dosimetric materials investigated: trehalose, glucose and mannitol. The maximum value, following the peak of the curve, and the integral light output are a measure of the absorbed dose. The reason for the different light outputs of various dosimetric materials after irradiation with the same dose is the differing solubility. The character of the dissolution glow curves is the same following irradiation with photons, electrons or neutrons. (author)

  9. Memristance controlling approach based on modification of linear M—q curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liu Hai-Jun; Li Zhi-Wei; Yu Hong-Qi; Sun Zhao-Lin; Nie Hong-Shan

    2014-01-01

    The memristor has broad application prospects in many fields, while in many cases, those fields require accurate impedance control. The nonlinear model is of great importance for realizing memristance control accurately, but the implementing complexity caused by iteration has limited the actual application of this model. Considering the approximate linear characteristics at the middle region of the memristance-charge (M—q) curve of the nonlinear model, this paper proposes a memristance controlling approach, which is achieved by linearizing the middle region of the M—q curve of the nonlinear memristor, and establishes the linear relationship between memristances M and input excitations so that it can realize impedance control precisely by only adjusting input signals briefly. First, it analyzes the feasibility for linearizing the middle part of the M—q curve of the memristor with a nonlinear model from the qualitative perspective. Then, the linearization equations of the middle region of the M—q curve is constructed by using the shift method, and under a sinusoidal excitation case, the analytical relation between the memristance M and the charge time t is derived through the Taylor series expansions. At last, the performance of the proposed approach is demonstrated, including the linearizing capability for the middle part of the M—q curve of the nonlinear model memristor, the controlling ability for memristance M, and the influence of input excitation on linearization errors. (interdisciplinary physics and related areas of science and technology)

  10. Preoperative Comorbidity Correlates Inversely with Survival after Intestinal and Multivisceral Transplantation in Adults

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rajesh Sivaprakasam

    2013-01-01

    Full Text Available We investigated the relationship between preoperative comorbidity and postoperative survival after intestinal transplantation. Each patient received a score for preoperative comorbidity. Each comorbidity was given a score based on the degree it impaired function (score range 0–3. A total score was derived from the summation of individual comorbidity scores. Patients (72 adults (M : F, 33 : 39 received an isolated intestinal graft (27 or a cluster graft (45. Mean (standard deviation survival was 1501 (1444 days. The Kaplan-Meier analysis revealed a significant inverse association between survival and comorbidity score (logrank test for trend, . Patients grouped into comorbidity scores of 0 and 1, 2 and 3, 4 and 5, 6, and above had hazard ratios (95% confidence intervals for death (compared to group 0 + 1, which increased with comorbidity scores: 1.945 (0.7622–5.816, 5.075 (3.314–36.17, and 13.77 (463.3–120100, respectively, (. Receiver-operator curves at 1, 3, 5, and 10 years postoperative had “C” statistics of 0.88, 0.85, 0.88, and 0.92, respectively. When evaluating patients for transplantation, the degree of comorbidity should be considered as a major factor influencing postoperative survival.

  11. Rural AIDS Diagnoses in Florida: Changing Demographics and Factors Associated With Survival

    Science.gov (United States)

    Trepka, Mary Jo; Niyonsenga, Theophile; Maddox, Lorene M.; Lieb, Spencer

    2012-01-01

    Purpose To compare demographic characteristics and predictors of survival of rural residents diagnosed with acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS) with those of urban residents. Methods Florida surveillance data for people diagnosed with AIDS during 1993–2007 were merged with 2000 Census data using ZIP code tabulation areas (ZCTA). Rural status was classified based on the ZCTA’s rural-urban commuting area classification. Survival rates were compared between rural and urban areas using survival curves and Cox proportional hazards models controlling for demographic, clinical, and area-level socioeconomic and health care access factors. Findings Of the 73,590 people diagnosed with AIDS, 1,991 (2.7%) resided in rural areas. People in the most recent rural cohorts were more likely than those in earlier cohorts to be female, non-Hispanic black, older, and have a reported transmission mode of heterosexual sex. There were no statistically significant differences in the 3-, 5-, or 10-year survival rates between rural and urban residents. Older age at the time of diagnosis, diagnosis during the 1993–1995 period, other/unknown transmission mode, and lower CD4 count/percent categories were associated with lower survival in both rural and urban areas. In urban areas only, being non-Hispanic black or Hispanic, being US born, more poverty, less community social support, and lower physician density were also associated with lower survival. Conclusions In rural Florida, the demographic characteristics of people diagnosed with AIDS have been changing, which may necessitate modifications in the delivery of AIDS-related services. Rural residents diagnosed with AIDS did not have a significant survival disadvantage relative to urban residents. PMID:23802929

  12. Cost-effectiveness Analysis in R Using a Multi-state Modeling Survival Analysis Framework: A Tutorial.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Williams, Claire; Lewsey, James D; Briggs, Andrew H; Mackay, Daniel F

    2017-05-01

    This tutorial provides a step-by-step guide to performing cost-effectiveness analysis using a multi-state modeling approach. Alongside the tutorial, we provide easy-to-use functions in the statistics package R. We argue that this multi-state modeling approach using a package such as R has advantages over approaches where models are built in a spreadsheet package. In particular, using a syntax-based approach means there is a written record of what was done and the calculations are transparent. Reproducing the analysis is straightforward as the syntax just needs to be run again. The approach can be thought of as an alternative way to build a Markov decision-analytic model, which also has the option to use a state-arrival extended approach. In the state-arrival extended multi-state model, a covariate that represents patients' history is included, allowing the Markov property to be tested. We illustrate the building of multi-state survival models, making predictions from the models and assessing fits. We then proceed to perform a cost-effectiveness analysis, including deterministic and probabilistic sensitivity analyses. Finally, we show how to create 2 common methods of visualizing the results-namely, cost-effectiveness planes and cost-effectiveness acceptability curves. The analysis is implemented entirely within R. It is based on adaptions to functions in the existing R package mstate to accommodate parametric multi-state modeling that facilitates extrapolation of survival curves.

  13. LB02.06: CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS OF THE DIASTOLIC BLOOD PRESSURE 'J CURVE' IN TREATED HYPERTENSIVE PATIENTS.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lip, S; McCallum, L; Touyz, R H; Dominiczak, A F; Padmanabhan, S

    2015-06-01

    Recent studies have shown that low diastolic blood pressure is associated with increased cardiovascular outcomes especially in those with pre-existing cardiovascular disease (DBP 'J' Curve). Whether this has practical implications in real life hypertension practice is unknown. We analysed the achieved blood pressure of 6,072 patients between years 2 and 5 following initial presentation to the Glasgow Blood Pressure Clinic. Patients were classified into nine groups based on the area under the curve(AUC) of at least 3 blood pressure(BP) readings during this period. Multivariable adjusted 30 years survival analysis was performed using Cox proportional hazards model. The age of first visit was 53±13 years, BMI 27.6 ± 5.2, baseline BP 169 ± 29/100 ± 18 mmHg, 52% were females, 60% drank more than 6 units of alcohol/week, 44% were ever smokers, 26% had prevalent CVD and 26% had eGFRAUC-BP =140/160/ DBPAUC-DBP160.(Figure is included in full-text article.) : In treated hypertensive patients, the DBP 'J 'curve is not apparent with achieved BP 2 - 5 years from presentation. This may be explained partly by the low likelihood of achieving DBP<70 2-5 years after commencing treatment.

  14. The Use of Statistically Based Rolling Supply Curves for Electricity Market Analysis: A Preliminary Look

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Jenkin, Thomas J [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Larson, Andrew [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); Ruth, Mark F [National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL), Golden, CO (United States); King, Ben [U.S. Department of Energy; Spitsen, Paul [U.S. Department of Energy

    2018-03-27

    In light of the changing electricity resource mixes across the United States, an important question in electricity modeling is how additions and retirements of generation, including additions in variable renewable energy (VRE) generation could impact markets by changing hourly wholesale energy prices. Instead of using resource-intensive production cost models (PCMs) or building and using simple generator supply curves, this analysis uses a 'top-down' approach based on regression analysis of hourly historical energy and load data to estimate the impact of supply changes on wholesale electricity prices, provided the changes are not so substantial that they fundamentally alter the market and dispatch-order driven behavior of non-retiring units. The rolling supply curve (RSC) method used in this report estimates the shape of the supply curve that fits historical hourly price and load data for given time intervals, such as two-weeks, and then repeats this on a rolling basis through the year. These supply curves can then be modified on an hourly basis to reflect the impact of generation retirements or additions, including VRE and then reapplied to the same load data to estimate the change in hourly electricity price. The choice of duration over which these RSCs are estimated has a significant impact on goodness of fit. For example, in PJM in 2015, moving from fitting one curve per year to 26 rolling two-week supply curves improves the standard error of the regression from 16 dollars/MWh to 6 dollars/MWh and the R-squared of the estimate from 0.48 to 0.76. We illustrate the potential use and value of the RSC method by estimating wholesale price effects under various generator retirement and addition scenarios, and we discuss potential limits of the technique, some of which are inherent. The ability to do this type of analysis is important to a wide range of market participants and other stakeholders, and it may have a role in complementing use of or providing

  15. Rational quadratic trigonometric Bézier curve based on new basis with exponential functions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wu Beibei

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available We construct a rational quadratic trigonometric Bézier curve with four shape parameters by introducing two exponential functions into the trigonometric basis functions in this paper. It has the similar properties as the rational quadratic Bézier curve. For given control points, the shape of the curve can be flexibly adjusted by changing the shape parameters and the weight. Some conics can be exactly represented when the control points, the shape parameters and the weight are chosen appropriately. The C0, C1 and C2 continuous conditions for joining two constructed curves are discussed. Some examples are given.

  16. Corals like it waxed: paraffin-based antifouling technology enhances coral spat survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jan Tebben

    Full Text Available The early post-settlement stage is the most sensitive during the life history of reef building corals. However, few studies have examined the factors that influence coral mortality during this period. Here, the impact of fouling on the survival of newly settled coral spat of Acropora millepora was investigated by manipulating the extent of fouling cover on settlement tiles using non-toxic, wax antifouling coatings. Survival of spat on coated tiles was double that on control tiles. Moreover, there was a significant negative correlation between percentage cover of fouling and spat survival across all tiles types, suggesting that fouling in direct proximity to settled corals has detrimental effects on early post-settlement survival. While previous studies have shown that increased fouling negatively affects coral larval settlement and health of juvenile and adult corals, to the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to show a direct relationship between fouling and early post-settlement survival for a broadcast spawning scleractinian coral. The negative effects of fouling on this sensitive life history stage may become more pronounced in the future as coastal eutrophication increases. Our results further suggest that targeted seeding of coral spat on artificial surfaces in combination with fouling control could prove useful to improve the efficiency of sexual reproduction-based coral propagation for reef rehabilitation.

  17. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nasejje, Justine B; Mwambi, Henry; Dheda, Keertan; Lesosky, Maia

    2017-07-28

    Random survival forest (RSF) models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF) are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF) using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points). The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB) which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points). The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  18. A comparison of the conditional inference survival forest model to random survival forests based on a simulation study as well as on two applications with time-to-event data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Justine B. Nasejje

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Random survival forest (RSF models have been identified as alternative methods to the Cox proportional hazards model in analysing time-to-event data. These methods, however, have been criticised for the bias that results from favouring covariates with many split-points and hence conditional inference forests for time-to-event data have been suggested. Conditional inference forests (CIF are known to correct the bias in RSF models by separating the procedure for the best covariate to split on from that of the best split point search for the selected covariate. Methods In this study, we compare the random survival forest model to the conditional inference model (CIF using twenty-two simulated time-to-event datasets. We also analysed two real time-to-event datasets. The first dataset is based on the survival of children under-five years of age in Uganda and it consists of categorical covariates with most of them having more than two levels (many split-points. The second dataset is based on the survival of patients with extremely drug resistant tuberculosis (XDR TB which consists of mainly categorical covariates with two levels (few split-points. Results The study findings indicate that the conditional inference forest model is superior to random survival forest models in analysing time-to-event data that consists of covariates with many split-points based on the values of the bootstrap cross-validated estimates for integrated Brier scores. However, conditional inference forests perform comparably similar to random survival forests models in analysing time-to-event data consisting of covariates with fewer split-points. Conclusion Although survival forests are promising methods in analysing time-to-event data, it is important to identify the best forest model for analysis based on the nature of covariates of the dataset in question.

  19. Development of Load Duration Curve System in Data Scarce Watersheds Based on a Distributed Hydrological Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    WANG, J.

    2017-12-01

    In stream water quality control, the total maximum daily load (TMDL) program is very effective. However, the load duration curves (LDC) of TMDL are difficult to be established because no sufficient observed flow and pollutant data can be provided in data-scarce watersheds in which no hydrological stations or consecutively long-term hydrological data are available. Although the point sources or a non-point sources of pollutants can be clarified easily with the aid of LDC, where does the pollutant come from and to where it will be transported in the watershed cannot be traced by LDC. To seek out the best management practices (BMPs) of pollutants in a watershed, and to overcome the limitation of LDC, we proposed to develop LDC based on a distributed hydrological model of SWAT for the water quality management in data scarce river basins. In this study, firstly, the distributed hydrological model of SWAT was established with the scarce-hydrological data. Then, the long-term daily flows were generated with the established SWAT model and rainfall data from the adjacent weather station. Flow duration curves (FDC) was then developed with the aid of generated daily flows by SWAT model. Considering the goal of water quality management, LDC curves of different pollutants can be obtained based on the FDC. With the monitored water quality data and the LDC curves, the water quality problems caused by the point or non-point source pollutants in different seasons can be ascertained. Finally, the distributed hydrological model of SWAT was employed again to tracing the spatial distribution and the origination of the pollutants of coming from what kind of agricultural practices and/or other human activities. A case study was conducted in the Jian-jiang river, a tributary of Yangtze river, of Duyun city, Guizhou province. Results indicate that this kind of method can realize the water quality management based on TMDL and find out the suitable BMPs for reducing pollutant in a watershed.

  20. Effect of single-dose radiation on cell survival and growth hormone secretion by rat anterior pituitary cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hochberg, Z.; Kuten, A.; Hertz, P.; Tatcher, M.; Kedar, A.; Benderly, A.

    1983-01-01

    Cranial irradiation has been shown to impair growth hormone secretion in children. In this study a cell culture of dispersed rat anterior pituitary cells was exposed to single doses of radiation in the range of 100 to 1500 rad. Survival curves were obtained for the different anterior pituitary cell lines, and growth hormone secretion was measured in the tissue culture medium. Both survival and growth hormone secretion curves showed an initial shoulder in the range of 0 to 300 rad, followed by a decline between 300 to 750 rad. It is concluded that growth hormone secreting acidophilic pituicytes are sensitive to radiation at single doses greater than 300 rad

  1. IGMtransmission: Transmission curve computation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Harrison, Christopher M.; Meiksin, Avery; Stock, David

    2015-04-01

    IGMtransmission is a Java graphical user interface that implements Monte Carlo simulations to compute the corrections to colors of high-redshift galaxies due to intergalactic attenuation based on current models of the Intergalactic Medium. The effects of absorption due to neutral hydrogen are considered, with particular attention to the stochastic effects of Lyman Limit Systems. Attenuation curves are produced, as well as colors for a wide range of filter responses and model galaxy spectra. Photometric filters are included for the Hubble Space Telescope, the Keck telescope, the Mt. Palomar 200-inch, the SUBARU telescope and UKIRT; alternative filter response curves and spectra may be readily uploaded.

  2. Implementing a novel movement-based approach to inferring parturition and neonate caribou calf survival.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Maegwin Bonar

    Full Text Available In ungulates, parturition is correlated with a reduction in movement rate. With advances in movement-based technologies comes an opportunity to develop new techniques to assess reproduction in wild ungulates that are less invasive and reduce biases. DeMars et al. (2013, Ecology and Evolution 3:4149-4160 proposed two promising new methods (individual- and population-based; the DeMars model that use GPS inter-fix step length of adult female caribou (Rangifer tarandus caribou to infer parturition and neonate survival. Our objective was to apply the DeMars model to caribou populations that may violate model assumptions for retrospective analysis of parturition and calf survival. We extended the use of the DeMars model after assigning parturition and calf mortality status by examining herd-wide distributions of parturition date, calf mortality date, and survival. We used the DeMars model to estimate parturition and calf mortality events and compared them with the known parturition and calf mortality events from collared adult females (n = 19. We also used the DeMars model to estimate parturition and calf mortality events for collared female caribou with unknown parturition and calf mortality events (n = 43 and instead derived herd-wide estimates of calf survival as well as distributions of parturition and calf mortality dates and compared them to herd-wide estimates generated from calves fitted with VHF collars (n = 134. For our data, the individual-based method was effective at predicting calf mortality, but was not effective at predicting parturition. The population-based method was more effective at predicting parturition but was not effective at predicting calf mortality. At the herd-level, the predicted distributions of parturition date from both methods differed from each other and from the distribution derived from the parturition dates of VHF-collared calves (log-ranked test: χ2 = 40.5, df = 2, p < 0.01. The predicted distributions of calf

  3. Fractal based curves in musical creativity: A critical annotation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Georgaki, Anastasia; Tsolakis, Christos

    In this article we examine fractal curves and synthesis algorithms in musical composition and research. First we trace the evolution of different approaches for the use of fractals in music since the 80's by a literature review. Furthermore, we review representative fractal algorithms and platforms that implement them. Properties such as self-similarity (pink noise), correlation, memory (related to the notion of Brownian motion) or non correlation at multiple levels (white noise), can be used to develop hierarchy of criteria for analyzing different layers of musical structure. L-systems can be applied in the modelling of melody in different musical cultures as well as in the investigation of musical perception principles. Finally, we propose a critical investigation approach for the use of artificial or natural fractal curves in systematic musicology.

  4. Supply-cost curves for geographically distributed renewable-energy resources

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Izquierdo, Salvador; Dopazo, Cesar; Fueyo, Norberto

    2010-01-01

    The supply-cost curves of renewable-energy sources are an essential tool to synthesize and analyze large-scale energy-policy scenarios, both in the short and long terms. Here, we suggest and test a parametrization of such curves that allows their representation for modeling purposes with a minimal set of information. In essence, an economic potential is defined based on the mode of the marginal supply-cost curves; and, using this definition, a normalized log-normal distribution function is used to model these curves. The feasibility of this proposal is assessed with data from a GIS-based analysis of solar, wind and biomass technologies in Spain. The best agreement is achieved for solar energy.

  5. Caffeine-enhanced survival of radiation-sensitive, repair-deficient Chinese hamster cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Utsumi, H.; Elkind, M.M.

    1983-01-01

    A clone of V79 Chinese hamster cells (V79-AL162/S-10) with unique properties has been isolated after a challenge of parental cells (V79-AL162) with 1 mM ouabain. Compared with parental cells, or with other clones isolated after the ouabain challenge, these cells form smaller colonies, are more sensitive to both x rays and fission-spectrum neutrons, and respond atypically to a postirradiation treatment with caffeine. Their enhanced response to x rays results mainly from a large reduction in the shoulder of their survival curve, probably because in late S phase, the most resistant phase in the cell cycle, the survival curve of these cells has a reduced shoulder width. Caffeine, and to a lesser extent theophylline, added to the colony-forming medium immediately after exposure appreciably increases the width of the shoulder of these sensitive cells, whereas caffeine has the opposite effect on the response of normal V79 cells. Thus the unique response of the V79-AL162/S-10 cells to a radiation posttreatment with caffeine (increased survival) results from a net increase in their ability to repair damage that is otherwise lethal; caffeine treatment ordinarly prevents normal V79 cells from repairing damage that is only potentially lethal

  6. Model-based Approach for Long-term Creep Curves of Alloy 617 for a High Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Woo Gon; Yin, Song Nan; Kim, Yong Wan

    2008-01-01

    Alloy 617 is a principal candidate alloy for the high temperature gas-cooled reactor (HTGR) components, because of its high creep rupture strength coupled with its good corrosion behavior in simulated HTGR-helium and its sufficient workability. To describe a creep strain-time curve well, various constitutive equations have been proposed by Kachanov-Rabotnov, Andrade, Garofalo, Evans and Maruyama, et al.. Among them, the K-R model has been used frequently, because a secondary creep resulting from a balance between a softening and a hardening of materials and a tertiary creep resulting from an appearance and acceleration of the internal or external damage processes are adequately considered. In the case of nickel-base alloys, it has been reported that a tertiary creep at a low strain range may be generated, and this tertiary stage may govern the total creep deformation. Therefore, a creep curve for nickel-based Alloy 617 will be predicted appropriately by using the K-R model that can reflect a tertiary creep. In this paper, the long-term creep curves for Alloy 617 were predicted by using the nonlinear least square fitting (NLSF) method in the K-R model. The modified K-R model was introduced to fit the full creep curves well. The values for the λ and K parameters in the modified K-R model were obtained with stresses

  7. Dose-response curves from incomplete data

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Groer, P.G.

    1978-01-01

    Frequently many different responses occur in populations (animal or human) exposed to ionizing radiation. To obtain a dose-response curve, the exposed population is first divided into sub-groups whose members received the same radiation dose. To estimate the response, the fraction of subjects in each sub-group that showed the particular response of interest is determined. These fractions are plotted against dose to give the dose-response curve. This procedure of plotting the fractions versus the radiation dose is not the correct way to estimate the time distribution for a particular response at the different dose levels. Other observed responses competed for the individuals in the exposed population and therefore prevented manifestation of the complete information on the response-time distribution for one specific response. Such data are called incomplete in the statistical literature. A procedure is described which uses the by now classical Kaplan-Meier estimator, to establish dose-response curves from incomplete data under the assumption that the different observed responses are statistically independent. It is demonstrated that there is insufficient information in the observed survival functions to estimate the time distribution for one particular response if the assumption of independence is dropped. In addition, it is not possible to determine from the data (i.e. type of response and when it occurred) whether or not the different response-time distributions are independent. However, it is possible to give sharp bounds between which the response has to lie. This implies that for incomplete data, only a 'dose-response band' can be established if independence of the competing responses cannot be assumed. Examples are given using actual data to illustrate the estimation procedures

  8. Anterior Overgrowth in Primary Curves, Compensatory Curves and Junctional Segments in Adolescent Idiopathic Scoliosis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schlösser, Tom P C; van Stralen, Marijn; Chu, Winnie C W; Lam, Tsz-Ping; Ng, Bobby K W; Vincken, Koen L; Cheng, Jack C Y; Castelein, René M

    2016-01-01

    Although much attention has been given to the global three-dimensional aspect of adolescent idiopathic scoliosis (AIS), the accurate three-dimensional morphology of the primary and compensatory curves, as well as the intervening junctional segments, in the scoliotic spine has not been described before. A unique series of 77 AIS patients with high-resolution CT scans of the spine, acquired for surgical planning purposes, were included and compared to 22 healthy controls. Non-idiopathic curves were excluded. Endplate segmentation and local longitudinal axis in endplate plane enabled semi-automatic geometric analysis of the complete three-dimensional morphology of the spine, taking inter-vertebral rotation, intra-vertebral torsion and coronal and sagittal tilt into account. Intraclass correlation coefficients for interobserver reliability were 0.98-1.00. Coronal deviation, axial rotation and the exact length discrepancies in the reconstructed sagittal plane, as defined per vertebra and disc, were analyzed for each primary and compensatory curve as well as for the junctional segments in-between. The anterior-posterior difference of spinal length, based on "true" anterior and posterior points on endplates, was +3.8% for thoracic and +9.4% for (thoraco)lumbar curves, while the junctional segments were almost straight. This differed significantly from control group thoracic kyphosis (-4.1%; P<0.001) and lumbar lordosis (+7.8%; P<0.001). For all primary as well as compensatory curves, we observed linear correlations between the coronal Cobb angle, axial rotation and the anterior-posterior length difference (r≥0.729 for thoracic curves; r≥0.485 for (thoraco)lumbar curves). Excess anterior length of the spine in AIS has been described as a generalized growth disturbance, causing relative anterior spinal overgrowth. This study is the first to demonstrate that this anterior overgrowth is not a generalized phenomenon. It is confined to the primary as well as the

  9. Modelling curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Soloninko K.S.

    2017-03-01

    Full Text Available The authors research the issue of functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. Settlement of the problem, and its connection with important scientific and practical tasks. According to its nature, the market economy is unstable and is in constant movement. Economy has an effective instrument for explanation of changes in economic environment; this tool is called the modelling of economic processes. The modelling of economic processes depends first and foremost on the building of economic model which is the base for the formalization of economic process, that is, the building of mathematical model. The effective means for formalization of economic process is the creation of the model of hypothetic or imaginary economy. The building of demand model is significant for the market of goods and services. The problem includes the receiving (as the result of modelling definite functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand according to which one can determine their mathematical model. Another problem lies in obtaining majorant properties of curves of joint demand on the market of goods and services. Analysis of the latest researches and publications. Many domestic and foreign scientists dedicated their studies to the researches and building of the models of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand. In spite of considerable work of the scientists, such problems as functional properties of the curves and their practical use in modelling. The purpose of the article is to describe functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand on the market of goods and services on the base of modelling of their building. Scientific novelty and practical value. The theoretical regulations (for functional properties of curves of manufacturing feasibilities and demand received as a result of the present research, that is convexity, give extra practical possibilities in a microeconomic

  10. Chordomas of the Skull Base, Mobile Spine, and Sacrum: An Epidemiologic Investigation of Presentation, Treatment, and Survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zuckerman, Scott L; Bilsky, Mark H; Laufer, Ilya

    2018-05-01

    Chordomas are rare primary bone tumors that arise from the axial skeleton. Our objective was to analyze trends in radiation and surgery over time and determine location-based survival predictors for chordomas of the skull base, mobile spine, and sacrum. A retrospective cohort study of the SEER (Surveillance Epidemiology and End Results) database from 1973 to 2013 was conducted. All patients had histologically confirmed chordomas. The principal outcome measure was overall survival (OS). The cohort included 1616 patients: skull base (664), mobile spine (444), and sacrum (508). Skull base tumors presented earliest in life (47.4 years) and sacral tumors presented latest (62.7 years). Rates of radiation remained stable for skull base and mobile spine tumors but declined for sacral tumors (P = 0.006). Rates of surgical resection remained stable for skull base and sacral tumors but declined for mobile spine tumors (P = 0.046). Skull base chordomas had the longest median survival (162 months) compared with mobile spine (94 months) and sacral tumors (87 months). Being married was independently associated with improved OS for skull base tumors (hazard ratio, 0.73; 95% confidence interval, 0.53-0.99; P = 0.044). Surgical resection was independently associated with improved OS for sacral chordomas (hazard ratio, 0.48; 95% confidence interval, 0.34-0.69; P mobile spine chordomas and radiation for sacral chordomas decreased over time. Patients with skull base tumors survived longer than did patients with mobile spine and sacral chordomas, and surgical resection was associated with improved survival in sacral chordomas only. Understanding the behavior of these tumors can help cranial and spinal surgeons improve treatment in this patient population. Copyright © 2018 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  11. Guidelines for using the Delphi Technique to develop habitat suitability index curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Crance, Johnie H.

    1987-01-01

    Habitat Suitability Index (SI) curves are one method of presenting species habitat suitability criteria. The curves are often used with the Habitat Evaluation Procedures (HEP) and are necessary components of the Instream Flow Incremental Methodology (IFIM) (Armour et al. 1984). Bovee (1986) described three categories of SI curves or habitat suitability criteria based on the procedures and data used to develop the criteria. Category I curves are based on professional judgment, with 1ittle or no empirical data. Both Category II (utilization criteria) and Category III (preference criteria) curves have as their source data collected at locations where target species are observed or collected. Having Category II and Category III curves for all species of concern would be ideal. In reality, no SI curves are available for many species, and SI curves that require intensive field sampling often cannot be developed under prevailing constraints on time and costs. One alternative under these circumstances is the development and interim use of SI curves based on expert opinion. The Delphi technique (Pill 1971; Delbecq et al. 1975; Linstone and Turoff 1975) is one method used for combining the knowledge and opinions of a group of experts. The purpose of this report is to describe how the Delphi technique may be used to develop expert-opinion-based SI curves.

  12. Designing the Alluvial Riverbeds in Curved Paths

    Science.gov (United States)

    Macura, Viliam; Škrinár, Andrej; Štefunková, Zuzana; Muchová, Zlatica; Majorošová, Martina

    2017-10-01

    The paper presents the method of determining the shape of the riverbed in curves of the watercourse, which is based on the method of Ikeda (1975) developed for a slightly curved path in sandy riverbed. Regulated rivers have essentially slightly and smoothly curved paths; therefore, this methodology provides the appropriate basis for river restoration. Based on the research in the experimental reach of the Holeška Brook and several alluvial mountain streams the methodology was adjusted. The method also takes into account other important characteristics of bottom material - the shape and orientation of the particles, settling velocity and drag coefficients. Thus, the method is mainly meant for the natural sand-gravel material, which is heterogeneous and the particle shape of the bottom material is very different from spherical. The calculation of the river channel in the curved path provides the basis for the design of optimal habitat, but also for the design of foundations of armouring of the bankside of the channel. The input data is adapted to the conditions of design practice.

  13. Survival rates of birds of tropical and temperate forests: will the dogma survive?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Karr, J.R.; Nichols, J.D.; Klimkiewicz, M.K.; Brawn, J.D.

    1990-01-01

    Survival rates of tropical forest birds are widely assumed to be high relative to the survival rates of temperate forest birds. Much life-history theory is based on this assumption despite the lack of empirical data to support it. We provide the first detailed comparison of survival rates of tropical and temperate forest birds based on extensive data bases and modern capture-recapture models. We find no support for the conventional wisdom. Because clutch size is only one component of reproductive rate, the frequently assumed, simple association between clutch size and adult survival rates should not necessarily be expected. Our results emphasize the need to consider components of fecundity in addition to clutch size when comparing the life histories of tropical and temperate birds and suggest similar considerations in the development of vertebrate life-history theory.

  14. Modification of UV-induced mutation frequency and cell survival of Escherichia coli B/r WP2 trpE65 by treatment before irradiation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Doudney, C.O.; Rinaldi, C.N.

    1984-01-01

    The UV radiation survival curve of exponentially growing cultures of Escherichia coli B/r WP2 trpE65 was modified by pretreatment for short incubation periods (up to 20 min) with chloramphenicol such that an extended exponential section of intermediate slope appeared between the shoulder and the final exponential slope. Surges of mutation to tryptophan independence occurred with each increase in slope of the survival curve. These surges were separated by extended sections of little mutation. Nalidixic acid prevented both the changes in survival and mutation. Mutation curves obtained with overnight cultures had three extended sections of little mutation alternating with section of high mutation. Reincubation for 60 min in fresh medium reduced or eliminated the low-response sections. These reappeared after 80 to 90 min, when DNA had doubled in the culture and before the initial synchronous cell divisions had occurred. Nalidixic acid prevented this reappearance

  15. Cost development of future technologies for power generation-A study based on experience curves and complementary bottom-up assessments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Neij, Lena

    2008-01-01

    Technology foresight studies have become an important tool in identifying realistic ways of reducing the impact of modern energy systems on the climate and the environment. Studies on the future cost development of advanced energy technologies are of special interest. One approach widely adopted for the analysis of future cost is the experience curve approach. The question is, however, how robust this approach is, and which experience curves should be used in energy foresight analysis. This paper presents an analytical framework for the analysis of future cost development of new energy technologies for electricity generation; the analytical framework is based on an assessment of available experience curves, complemented with bottom-up analysis of sources of cost reductions and, for some technologies, judgmental expert assessments of long-term development paths. The results of these three methods agree in most cases, i.e. the cost (price) reductions described by the experience curves match the incremental cost reduction described in the bottom-up analysis and the judgmental expert assessments. For some technologies, the bottom-up analysis confirms large uncertainties in future cost development not captured by the experience curves. Experience curves with a learning rate ranging from 0% to 20% are suggested for the analysis of future cost development

  16. Improved Survival With Radiation Therapy in High-Grade Soft Tissue Sarcomas of the Extremities: A SEER Analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Koshy, Matthew; Rich, Shayna E.; Mohiuddin, Majid M.

    2010-01-01

    Purpose: The benefit of radiation therapy in extremity soft tissue sarcomas remains controversial. The purpose of this study was to determine the effect of radiation therapy on overall survival among patients with primary soft tissue sarcomas of the extremity who underwent limb-sparing surgery. Methods and Materials: A retrospective study from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database that included data from January 1, 1988, to December 31, 2005. A total of 6,960 patients constituted the study population. Overall survival curves were constructed using the Kaplan-Meir method and for patients with low- and high-grade tumors. Hazard ratios were calculated based on multivariable Cox proportional hazards models. Results: Of the cohort, 47% received radiation therapy. There was no significant difference in overall survival among patients with low-grade tumors by radiation therapy. In high-grade tumors, the 3-year overall survival was 73% in patients who received radiation therapy vs. 63% for those who did not receive radiation therapy (p < 0.001). On multivariate analysis, patients with high-grade tumors who received radiation therapy had an improved overall survival (hazard ratio 0.67, 95% confidence interval 0.57-0.79). In patients receiving radiation therapy, 13.5% received it in a neoadjuvant setting. The incidence of patients receiving neoadjuvant radiation did not change significantly between 1988 and 2005. Conclusions: To our knowledge, this is the largest population-based study reported in patients undergoing limb-sparing surgery for soft tissue sarcomas of the extremities. It reports that radiation was associated with improved survival in patients with high-grade tumors.

  17. A Method of Timbre-Shape Synthesis Based On Summation of Spherical Curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Putnam, Lance Jonathan

    2014-01-01

    It is well-known that there is a rich correspondence between sound and visual curves, perhaps most widely explored through direct input of sound into an oscilloscope. However, there have been relatively few proposals on how to translate sound into three-dimensional curves. We present a novel meth...

  18. Flood damage curves for consistent global risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    de Moel, Hans; Huizinga, Jan; Szewczyk, Wojtek

    2016-04-01

    Assessing potential damage of flood events is an important component in flood risk management. Determining direct flood damage is commonly done using depth-damage curves, which denote the flood damage that would occur at specific water depths per asset or land-use class. Many countries around the world have developed flood damage models using such curves which are based on analysis of past flood events and/or on expert judgement. However, such damage curves are not available for all regions, which hampers damage assessments in those regions. Moreover, due to different methodologies employed for various damage models in different countries, damage assessments cannot be directly compared with each other, obstructing also supra-national flood damage assessments. To address these problems, a globally consistent dataset of depth-damage curves has been developed. This dataset contains damage curves depicting percent of damage as a function of water depth as well as maximum damage values for a variety of assets and land use classes (i.e. residential, commercial, agriculture). Based on an extensive literature survey concave damage curves have been developed for each continent, while differentiation in flood damage between countries is established by determining maximum damage values at the country scale. These maximum damage values are based on construction cost surveys from multinational construction companies, which provide a coherent set of detailed building cost data across dozens of countries. A consistent set of maximum flood damage values for all countries was computed using statistical regressions with socio-economic World Development Indicators from the World Bank. Further, based on insights from the literature survey, guidance is also given on how the damage curves and maximum damage values can be adjusted for specific local circumstances, such as urban vs. rural locations, use of specific building material, etc. This dataset can be used for consistent supra

  19. Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME KIC and KIR fracture toughness reference curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, K.

    1999-01-01

    Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the 'master curve', has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original database was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K IC -reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound master curve corresponds to the K IR -reference curve. (orig.)

  20. Primary blast survival and injury risk assessment for repeated blast exposures.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Panzer, Matthew B; Bass, Cameron R Dale; Rafaels, Karin A; Shridharani, Jay; Capehart, Bruce P

    2012-02-01

    The widespread use of explosives by modern insurgents and terrorists has increased the potential frequency of blast exposure in soldiers and civilians. This growing threat highlights the importance of understanding and evaluating blast injury risk and the increase of injury risk from exposure to repeated blast effects. Data from more than 3,250 large animal experiments were collected from studies focusing on the effects of blast exposure. The current study uses 2,349 experiments from the data collection for analysis of the primary blast injury and survival risk for both long- and short-duration blasts, including the effects from repeated exposures. A piecewise linear logistic regression was performed on the data to develop survival and injury risk assessment curves. New injury risk assessment curves uniting long- and short-duration blasts were developed for incident and reflected pressure measures and were used to evaluate the risk of injury based on blast over pressure, positive-phase duration, and the number of repeated exposures. The risk assessments were derived for three levels of injury severity: nonauditory, pulmonary, and fatality. The analysis showed a marked initial decrease in injury tolerance with each subsequent blast exposure. This effect decreases with increasing number of blast exposures. The new injury risk functions showed good agreement with the existing experimental data and provided a simplified model for primary blast injury risk. This model can be used to predict blast injury or fatality risk for single exposure and repeated exposure cases and has application in modern combat scenarios or in setting occupational health limits. .Copyright © 2012 by Lippincott Williams & Wilkins

  1. Speed Choice and Curve Radius on Rural Roads

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rimme, Nicolai; Nielsen, Lea; Kjems, Erik

    2016-01-01

    with informative speed-calming measures as traffic signs, reflectors or surface painting. However, it has been the hypothesis that people are reducing their speed insufficiently and are driving too fast in most curved alignments – especially when they are driving there frequently. By knowing the speed near...... and in the curved alignments compared to the geometry of the curved alignments, it can be clarified, if and which speed-calming measures that are required. Using GNSS-based floating car data (FCD) from driving cars the speed near and in curved alignments is found. Single observation of FCD are connected to trips...

  2. A critique of Katz's 'High LET constraint on low LET survival'

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burch, P.R.J.; Chesters, M.S.

    1979-01-01

    Katz's interpretation of the connexion between RBE and LET is contrasted with a version published previously by Burch. The implications of Katz's model for dose-response relations apply only at ultra-high absorbed doses in Burch's model. In the latter, the shoulder on type-C survival curves for mammalian cells is explained in terms of Haynes' repair model. Under certain conditions the repair model becomes mathematically equivalent to the α-β model; under some other conditions it becomes equivalent to the 'two-component' model. The formulation of a new repair hypothesis, based on the idea of an inducible repair mechanism, is also set out. It is argued that Katz's supralinearity index' is appropriate to the induction of (rare) mutations but inappropriate to cell survival, for which an alternative index is proposed. Certain plausible hypotheses of radiobiological action conflict with Katz's 'logical constraint' which, it is contended, is neither logical nor valid. In conclusion, although experimental findings for some radiobiological systems conform to Katz's 'constraint', the frequently observed violations should not necessarily be regarded as artefacts. (author)

  3. Precision-Recall-Gain Curves:PR Analysis Done Right

    OpenAIRE

    Flach, Peter; Kull, Meelis

    2015-01-01

    Precision-Recall analysis abounds in applications of binary classification where true negatives do not add value and hence should not affect assessment of the classifier's performance. Perhaps inspired by the many advantages of receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and the area under such curves for accuracy-based performance assessment, many researchers have taken to report Precision-Recall (PR) curves and associated areas as performance metric. We demonstrate in this paper that thi...

  4. Parathyroid carcinoma survival: improvements in the era of intact parathyroid hormone monitoring?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Steve R. Martinez

    2013-02-01

    Full Text Available The intact parathyroid hormone (iPTH assay is a critical test in the diagnosis and management of PTH-mediated hypercalcemia, including parathyroid carcinoma (PCa. We hypothesized that the survival of patients diagnosed with PCa has improved since adoption of the iPTH assay into clinical practice. We identified all confirmed cases of PCa within the Surveillance, Epidemiology and End Results database from 1973 to 2006. Patients were categorized into two eras based upon introduction of the iPTH assay: 1973 to 1997 (era I and 1997 to 2006 (era II, when the iPTH assay was in standard use. We estimated overall survival (OS and disease-specific survival (DSS using the Kaplan-Meier method, with differences among survival curves assessed via log rank. Multivariate Cox proportional hazards models compared the survival rates between treatment eras while controlling for patient age, sex, race/ethnicity, tumor size, nodal status, extent of disease, and type of surgery. Multivariate models included patients undergoing potentially curative surgery and excluded those with dis- tant metastases. Risks of overall and disease-specific mortality were reported as hazard ratios with 95% confidence intervals. Study criteria were met by 370 patients. Median survival was 15.6 years. Five-year rates of OS and DSS were 78% and 88% for era I and 82% and 96% for era II. On multivariate analysis, age, black race, and unknown extent of disease predicted an increased risk of death from any cause. Treatment era did not predict OS. No factor predicted PCa-specific mortality. In multivariate analysis, neither OS nor DSS have improved in the current era that utilizes iPTH for the detection and management of PCa.

  5. Laffer Curves and Home Production

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kotamäki Mauri

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available In the earlier related literature, consumption tax rate Laffer curve is found to be strictly increasing (see Trabandt and Uhlig (2011. In this paper, a general equilibrium macro model is augmented by introducing a substitute for private consumption in the form of home production. The introduction of home production brings about an additional margin of adjustment – an increase in consumption tax rate not only decreases labor supply and reduces the consumption tax base but also allows a substitution of market goods with home-produced goods. The main objective of this paper is to show that, after the introduction of home production, the consumption tax Laffer curve exhibits an inverse U-shape. Also the income tax Laffer curves are significantly altered. The result shown in this paper casts doubt on some of the earlier results in the literature.

  6. Sex differences in lung cancer survival: long-term trends using population-based cancer registry data in Osaka, Japan.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, Fukuaki Lee; Ito, Yuri; Morishima, Toshitaka; Miyashiro, Isao; Nakayama, Tomio

    2017-09-01

    Several studies of sex differences in lung cancer survival have been reported. However, large-size population-based studies based on long-term observation are scarce. We investigated long-term trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival using population-based cancer registry data from Osaka, Japan. We analyzed 79 330 cases from the Osaka Cancer Registry (OCR) diagnosed between 1975 and 2007. We calculated 5-year relative survival in the six periods (1975-1980, 1981-1986, 1987-1992, 1993-1997, 1998-2002 and 2003-2007). To estimate the trends in sex differences in lung cancer survival throughout the study period, we applied a multivariate excess hazard model to control for confounders. The proportion of adenocarcinoma (ADC) and 5-year relative relative survival have increased for both sexes. Sex differences in lung cancer survival have widened over the period, especially in ADC and since the late 1990s. The excess hazard ratio of death within 5 years for males was 1.19 (95% CI: 1.16-1.21), adjusting for period at diagnosis, histologic type, stage, age group and treatment. We reported that females have better prognosis in lung cancer than males and the sex differences in lung cancer survival have become wider in Osaka, Japan. This can be partly explained by the sex differences in the proportions of histologic type and stage. Further studies considering other factors that influence sex differences in lung cancer survival are needed. © The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com

  7. Research on the Integration of Bionic Geometry Modeling and Simulation of Robot Foot Based on Characteristic Curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    He, G.; Zhu, H.; Xu, J.; Gao, K.; Zhu, D.

    2017-09-01

    The bionic research of shape is an important aspect of the research on bionic robot, and its implementation cannot be separated from the shape modeling and numerical simulation of the bionic object, which is tedious and time-consuming. In order to improve the efficiency of shape bionic design, the feet of animals living in soft soil and swamp environment are taken as bionic objects, and characteristic skeleton curve, section curve, joint rotation variable, position and other parameters are used to describe the shape and position information of bionic object’s sole, toes and flipper. The geometry modeling of the bionic object is established by using the parameterization of characteristic curves and variables. Based on this, the integration framework of parametric modeling and finite element modeling, dynamic analysis and post-processing of sinking process in soil is proposed in this paper. The examples of bionic ostrich foot and bionic duck foot are also given. The parametric modeling and integration technique can achieve rapid improved design based on bionic object, and it can also greatly improve the efficiency and quality of robot foot bionic design, and has important practical significance to improve the level of bionic design of robot foot’s shape and structure.

  8. Evaluation of surviving fraction using nonclonogenic staining densitometry method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Nishiguchi, Iku; Ogawa, Koichi; Ito, Hisao; Hashimoto, Shozo

    1994-01-01

    This study was performed to compare our nonclonogenic survival assay (densitometry assay, DM assay) with the widely used clonogenic assay. The established cell lines (HaLa, RMUG, IMR, GOTO) were grown in F 10 medium. The cells were spread in 24-well plates, irradiated with different doses, cultured for about one week and stained with crystal violet after the culture period. Taking the transparent images of the stained well on the light source with the CCD camera, the images were collected with the matrix size 64 x 64, and the integrated optical density of the entire surface of each well was determined by computer with our original program. As the number of cells in the well is reflected by its staining density, the surviving fraction was calculated as the fraction of growth in the irradiated wells relative to controls. The survival curves obtained by the densitometry method showed good correlations with those obtained by clonogenic assay. It is possible to predict intrinsic radiosensitivity with this assay, even if the cells do not form good colonies. However, this method is based on measurements in cultures which depend on the metabolism and growth kinetics of the irradiated cells. Cells should grow exponetially in the same manner in any well to obtain a result similar to that of clonogenic assay, although growth kinetics may be altered by irradiation. This, the endpoint must be strictly standardized. (author)

  9. Prediction of Pressing Quality for Press-Fit Assembly Based on Press-Fit Curve and Maximum Press-Mounting Force

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bo You

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available In order to predict pressing quality of precision press-fit assembly, press-fit curves and maximum press-mounting force of press-fit assemblies were investigated by finite element analysis (FEA. The analysis was based on a 3D Solidworks model using the real dimensions of the microparts and the subsequent FEA model that was built using ANSYS Workbench. The press-fit process could thus be simulated on the basis of static structure analysis. To verify the FEA results, experiments were carried out using a press-mounting apparatus. The results show that the press-fit curves obtained by FEA agree closely with the curves obtained using the experimental method. In addition, the maximum press-mounting force calculated by FEA agrees with that obtained by the experimental method, with the maximum deviation being 4.6%, a value that can be tolerated. The comparison shows that the press-fit curve and max press-mounting force calculated by FEA can be used for predicting the pressing quality during precision press-fit assembly.

  10. Radiobiological effects of tritiated water short-term exposure on V79 clonogenic cell survival

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Siragusa, Mattia; Fredericia, Nina Pil Møntegaard; Jensen, Mikael

    2018-01-01

    We set out to improve the accuracy of absorbed dose calculations for in-vitro measurements of the Relative Biological Effectiveness (RBE) of tritiated water (HTO) for the clonogenic cell survival assay, also considering the influence of the end-of-track Linear Energy Transfer (LET) of low-energy...... in suspension are usually comparable to those for adherent cells. RBEs calculated at the 10% survival fraction through the use of the average energy are almost similar to those obtained with the beta-spectrum. For adherent cells, an RBE of 1.6 was found when HTO cell survival curves were compared to acute γ...

  11. Effects of modifiable prehospital factors on survival after out-of-hospital cardiac arrest in rural versus urban areas.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathiesen, Wenche Torunn; Bjørshol, Conrad Arnfinn; Kvaløy, Jan Terje; Søreide, Eldar

    2018-04-18

    The modifiable prehospital system factors, bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR), emergency medical services (EMS), response time, and EMS physician attendance, may affect short- and long-term survival for both rural and urban out-of-hospital cardiac arrest (OHCA) patients. We studied how such factors influenced OHCA survival in a mixed urban/rural region with a high survival rate after OHCA. We analyzed the association between modifiable prehospital factors and survival to different stages of care in 1138 medical OHCA patients from an Utstein template-based cardiac arrest registry, using Kaplan-Meier type survival curves, univariable and multivariable logistic regression and mortality hazard plots. We found a significantly higher probability for survival to hospital admission (OR: 1.84, 95% CI 1.43-2.36, p rural group. In patients receiving bystander CPR before EMS arrival, the odds of survival to hospital discharge increased more than threefold (OR: 3.05, 95% CI 2.00-4.65, p rural areas, patients with EMS physician attendance had an overall better survival to hospital discharge (survival probability 0.17 with EMS physician vs. 0.05 without EMS physician, p = 0.019). Adjusted for modifiable factors, the survival differences remained. Overall, OHCA survival was higher in urban compared to rural areas, and the effect of bystander CPR, EMS response time and EMS physician attendance on survival differ between urban and rural areas. The effect of modifiable factors on survival was highest in the prehospital stage of care. In patients surviving to hospital admission, there was no significant difference in in-hospital mortality or in 1 year mortality between OHCA in rural versus urban areas.

  12. Relationship between the temporal changes in positron-emission-tomography-imaging-based textural features and pathologic response and survival in esophageal cancer patients

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stephen ShingFan Yip

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose: Although change in SUV measures and PET-based textural features during treatment have shown promise in tumor response prediction, it is unclear which quantitative measure is the most predictive. We compared the relationship between PET-based features and pathologic response and overall survival with the SUV measures in esophageal cancer. Methods: Fifty-four esophageal cancer patients received PET/CT scans before and after chemo-radiotherapy. Of these, 45 patients underwent surgery and were classified into complete, partial, and non-responders to the preoperative chemoradiation. SUVmax and SUVmean, two co-occurrence matrix (Entropy and Homogeneity, two run-length-matrix (High-gray-run-emphasis and Short-run-high-gray-run-emphasis, and two size-zone-matrix (High-gray-zone-emphasis and Short-zone-high-gray-emphasis textures were computed. The relationship between the relative difference of each measure at different treatment time points and the pathologic response and overall survival was assessed using the area under the receiver-operating-characteristic curve (AUC and Kaplan-Meier statistics respectively. Results: All Textures, except Homogeneity, were better related to pathologic response than SUVmax and SUVmean. Entropy was found to significantly distinguish non-responders from the complete (AUC=0.79, p=1.7x10^-4 and partial (AUC=0.71, p=0.01 responders. Non-responders can also be significantly differentiated from partial and complete responders by the change in the run length and size zone matrix textures (AUC=0.71‒0.76, p≤0.02. Homogeneity, SUVmax and SUVmean failed to differentiate between any of the responders (AUC=0.50‒0.57, p≥0.46. However, none of the measures were found to significantly distinguish between complete and partial responders with AUC0.25. Conclusions: For the patients studied, temporal change in Entropy and all Run length matrix were better correlated with pathological response and survival than the SUV

  13. According to Jim: The Flawed Normal Curve of Intelligence

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gallagher, James J.

    2008-01-01

    In this article, the author talks about the normal curve of intelligence which he thinks is flawed and contends that wrong conclusions have been drawn based on this spurious normal curve. An example is that of racial and ethnic differences wherein some authors maintain that some ethnic and racial groups are clearly superior to others based on…

  14. Survival prediction model for postoperative hepatocellular carcinoma patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ren, Zhihui; He, Shasha; Fan, Xiaotang; He, Fangping; Sang, Wei; Bao, Yongxing; Ren, Weixin; Zhao, Jinming; Ji, Xuewen; Wen, Hao

    2017-09-01

    This study is to establish a predictive index (PI) model of 5-year survival rate for patients with hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after radical resection and to evaluate its prediction sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.Patients underwent HCC surgical resection were enrolled and randomly divided into prediction model group (101 patients) and model evaluation group (100 patients). Cox regression model was used for univariate and multivariate survival analysis. A PI model was established based on multivariate analysis and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was drawn accordingly. The area under ROC (AUROC) and PI cutoff value was identified.Multiple Cox regression analysis of prediction model group showed that neutrophil to lymphocyte ratio, histological grade, microvascular invasion, positive resection margin, number of tumor, and postoperative transcatheter arterial chemoembolization treatment were the independent predictors for the 5-year survival rate for HCC patients. The model was PI = 0.377 × NLR + 0.554 × HG + 0.927 × PRM + 0.778 × MVI + 0.740 × NT - 0.831 × transcatheter arterial chemoembolization (TACE). In the prediction model group, AUROC was 0.832 and the PI cutoff value was 3.38. The sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy were 78.0%, 80%, and 79.2%, respectively. In model evaluation group, AUROC was 0.822, and the PI cutoff value was well corresponded to the prediction model group with sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy of 85.0%, 83.3%, and 84.0%, respectively.The PI model can quantify the mortality risk of hepatitis B related HCC with high sensitivity, specificity, and accuracy.

  15. The standard centrifuge method accurately measures vulnerability curves of long-vesselled olive stems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hacke, Uwe G; Venturas, Martin D; MacKinnon, Evan D; Jacobsen, Anna L; Sperry, John S; Pratt, R Brandon

    2015-01-01

    The standard centrifuge method has been frequently used to measure vulnerability to xylem cavitation. This method has recently been questioned. It was hypothesized that open vessels lead to exponential vulnerability curves, which were thought to be indicative of measurement artifact. We tested this hypothesis in stems of olive (Olea europea) because its long vessels were recently claimed to produce a centrifuge artifact. We evaluated three predictions that followed from the open vessel artifact hypothesis: shorter stems, with more open vessels, would be more vulnerable than longer stems; standard centrifuge-based curves would be more vulnerable than dehydration-based curves; and open vessels would cause an exponential shape of centrifuge-based curves. Experimental evidence did not support these predictions. Centrifuge curves did not vary when the proportion of open vessels was altered. Centrifuge and dehydration curves were similar. At highly negative xylem pressure, centrifuge-based curves slightly overestimated vulnerability compared to the dehydration curve. This divergence was eliminated by centrifuging each stem only once. The standard centrifuge method produced accurate curves of samples containing open vessels, supporting the validity of this technique and confirming its utility in understanding plant hydraulics. Seven recommendations for avoiding artefacts and standardizing vulnerability curve methodology are provided. © 2014 The Authors. New Phytologist © 2014 New Phytologist Trust.

  16. The effect of the freezing curve type on bull spermatozoa motility after thawing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Martina Doležalová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this work was to determine the effect of selected freezing curves on spermatozoa survivability after thawing, defined by its motility. The ejaculates of nine selected sires of the same age, breed, and frequency of collecting, bred under the same breeding conditions including handling, stabling, feeding system and feeding ratio composition, were repeatedly collected and evaluated. Sperm samples of each sire were diluted using only one extender and divided into four parts. Selected four freezing curves – the standard, commercially recommended three-phase curve; a two-phase curve; a slow three-phase curve; and a fast three-phase curve, differing in the course of temperature vs time, were applied. The percentage rate of progressive motile spermatozoa above head was determined immediately after thawing, and after 30, 60, 90, and 120 min of the thermodynamic test (TDT. Moreover, average spermatozoa motility (AMOT and spermatozoa motility decrease (MODE throughout the entire TDT were evaluated. Insemination doses frozen using the simpler two-phase curve demonstrated the highest motility values (+2.97% to +10.37%; P < 0.05–0.01 immediately after thawing and during the entire TDT. Concurrently, the highest AMOT (+4.37% to +8.82%; P < 0.01 was determined. The highest spermatozoa motility values were detected after thawing doses frozen by the two-phase freezing curve in eight out of nine sires. Simultaneously, a significant effect of sire individuality was clearly confirmed. Inter-sire differences of spermatozoa motility during TDT as well as AMOT and MODE were significant (P < 0.01. The findings describing both factors of interaction indicate the necessity of individual cryopreservation of the ejaculate to increase its fertilization capability after thawing.

  17. [Determinants of survival in HIV patients receiving antiretroviral therapy in Goma, Democratic Republic of Congo].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akilimali, P Z; Mutombo, P B; Kayembe, P K; Kaba, D K; Mapatano, M A

    2014-06-01

    The study aimed to identify factors associated with the survival of patients receiving antiretroviral therapy. A historic cohort of HIV patients from two major hospitals in Goma (Democratic Republic of Congo) was followed from 2004 to 2012. The Kaplan-Meier method was used to describe the probability of survival as a function of time since inclusion into the cohort. The log-rank test was used to compare survival curves based on determinants. The Cox regression model identified the determinants of survival since treatment induction. The median follow-up time was 3.56 years (IQR=2.22-5.39). The mortality rate was 40 deaths per 1000 person-years. Male gender (RR: 2.56; 95 %CI 1.66-4.83), advanced clinical stage (RR: 2.12; 95 %CI 1.15-3.90), low CD4 count (CD4 < 50) (RR: 2.05; 95 %CI : 1.22-3.45), anemia (RR: 3.95; 95 %CI 2.60-6.01), chemoprophylaxis with cotrimoxazole (RR: 4.29, 95 % CI 2.69-6.86) and period of treatment initiation (2010-2011) (RR: 3.34; 95 %CI 1.24-8.98) were statistically associated with short survival. Initiation of treatment at an early stage of the disease with use of less toxic molecules and an increased surveillance especially of male patients are recommended to reduce mortality. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Masson SAS. All rights reserved.

  18. Research on Standard and Automatic Judgment of Press-fit Curve of Locomotive Wheel-set Based on AAR Standard

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, Jun; Xiao, Jun; Gao, Dong Jun; Zong, Shu Yu; Li, Zhu

    2018-03-01

    In the production of the Association of American Railroads (AAR) locomotive wheel-set, the press-fit curve is the most important basis for the reliability of wheel-set assembly. In the past, Most of production enterprises mainly use artificial detection methods to determine the quality of assembly. There are cases of miscarriage of justice appear. For this reason, the research on the standard is carried out. And the automatic judgment of press-fit curve is analysed and designed, so as to provide guidance for the locomotive wheel-set production based on AAR standard.

  19. Projection of curves on B-spline surfaces using quadratic reparameterization

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Yijun

    2010-09-01

    Curves on surfaces play an important role in computer aided geometric design. In this paper, we present a hyperbola approximation method based on the quadratic reparameterization of Bézier surfaces, which generates reasonable low degree curves lying completely on the surfaces by using iso-parameter curves of the reparameterized surfaces. The Hausdorff distance between the projected curve and the original curve is controlled under the user-specified distance tolerance. The projected curve is T-G 1 continuous, where T is the user-specified angle tolerance. Examples are given to show the performance of our algorithm. © 2010 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. A NURBS approximation of experimental stress-strain curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fedorov, Timofey V.; Morrev, Pavel G.

    2016-01-01

    A compact universal representation of monotonic experimental stress-strain curves of metals and alloys is proposed. It is based on the nonuniform rational Bezier splines (NURBS) of second order and may be used in a computer library of materials. Only six parameters per curve are needed; this is equivalent to a specification of only three points in a stress-strain plane. NURBS-functions of higher order prove to be surplus. Explicit expressions for both yield stress and hardening modulus are given. Two types of curves are considered: at a finite interval of strain and at infinite one. A broad class of metals and alloys of various chemical compositions subjected to various types of preliminary thermo-mechanical working is selected from a comprehensive data base in order to test the methodology proposed. The results demonstrate excellent correspondence to the experimental data. Keywords: work hardening, stress-strain curve, spline approximation, nonuniform rational B-spline, NURBS.

  1. Comparison of power curve monitoring methods

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Cambron Philippe

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available Performance monitoring is an important aspect of operating wind farms. This can be done through the power curve monitoring (PCM of wind turbines (WT. In the past years, important work has been conducted on PCM. Various methodologies have been proposed, each one with interesting results. However, it is difficult to compare these methods because they have been developed using their respective data sets. The objective of this actual work is to compare some of the proposed PCM methods using common data sets. The metric used to compare the PCM methods is the time needed to detect a change in the power curve. Two power curve models will be covered to establish the effect the model type has on the monitoring outcomes. Each model was tested with two control charts. Other methodologies and metrics proposed in the literature for power curve monitoring such as areas under the power curve and the use of statistical copulas have also been covered. Results demonstrate that model-based PCM methods are more reliable at the detecting a performance change than other methodologies and that the effectiveness of the control chart depends on the types of shift observed.

  2. Disease-free survival after hepatic resection in hepatocellular carcinoma patients: a prediction approach using artificial neural network.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Wen-Hsien Ho

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: A database for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC patients who had received hepatic resection was used to develop prediction models for 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival based on a set of clinical parameters for this patient group. METHODS: The three prediction models included an artificial neural network (ANN model, a logistic regression (LR model, and a decision tree (DT model. Data for 427, 354 and 297 HCC patients with histories of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival after hepatic resection, respectively, were extracted from the HCC patient database. From each of the three groups, 80% of the cases (342, 283 and 238 cases of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival, respectively were selected to provide training data for the prediction models. The remaining 20% of cases in each group (85, 71 and 59 cases in the three respective groups were assigned to validation groups for performance comparisons of the three models. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC was used as the performance index for evaluating the three models. CONCLUSIONS: The ANN model outperformed the LR and DT models in terms of prediction accuracy. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using ANNs in medical decision support systems for predicting disease-free survival based on clinical databases in HCC patients who have received hepatic resection.

  3. Disease-Free Survival after Hepatic Resection in Hepatocellular Carcinoma Patients: A Prediction Approach Using Artificial Neural Network

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ho, Wen-Hsien; Lee, King-Teh; Chen, Hong-Yaw; Ho, Te-Wei; Chiu, Herng-Chia

    2012-01-01

    Background A database for hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) patients who had received hepatic resection was used to develop prediction models for 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival based on a set of clinical parameters for this patient group. Methods The three prediction models included an artificial neural network (ANN) model, a logistic regression (LR) model, and a decision tree (DT) model. Data for 427, 354 and 297 HCC patients with histories of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival after hepatic resection, respectively, were extracted from the HCC patient database. From each of the three groups, 80% of the cases (342, 283 and 238 cases of 1-, 3- and 5-year disease-free survival, respectively) were selected to provide training data for the prediction models. The remaining 20% of cases in each group (85, 71 and 59 cases in the three respective groups) were assigned to validation groups for performance comparisons of the three models. Area under receiver operating characteristics curve (AUROC) was used as the performance index for evaluating the three models. Conclusions The ANN model outperformed the LR and DT models in terms of prediction accuracy. This study demonstrated the feasibility of using ANNs in medical decision support systems for predicting disease-free survival based on clinical databases in HCC patients who have received hepatic resection. PMID:22235270

  4. Crack resistance curves determination of tube cladding material

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bertsch, J. [Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)]. E-mail: johannes.bertsch@psi.ch; Hoffelner, W. [Paul Scherrer Institut, CH-5232 Villigen PSI (Switzerland)

    2006-06-30

    Zirconium based alloys have been in use as fuel cladding material in light water reactors since many years. As claddings change their mechanical properties during service, it is essential for the assessment of mechanical integrity to provide parameters for potential rupture behaviour. Usually, fracture mechanics parameters like the fracture toughness K {sub IC} or, for high plastic strains, the J-integral based elastic-plastic fracture toughness J {sub IC} are employed. In claddings with a very small wall thickness the determination of toughness needs the extension of the J-concept beyond limits of standards. In the paper a new method based on the traditional J approach is presented. Crack resistance curves (J-R curves) were created for unirradiated thin walled Zircaloy-4 and aluminium cladding tube pieces at room temperature using the single sample method. The procedure of creating sharp fatigue starter cracks with respect to optical recording was optimized. It is shown that the chosen test method is appropriate for the determination of complete J-R curves including the values J {sub 0.2} (J at 0.2 mm crack length), J {sub m} (J corresponding to the maximum load) and the slope of the curve.

  5. Object-Image Correspondence for Algebraic Curves under Projections

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Joseph M. Burdis

    2013-03-01

    Full Text Available We present a novel algorithm for deciding whether a given planar curve is an image of a given spatial curve, obtained by a central or a parallel projection with unknown parameters. The motivation comes from the problem of establishing a correspondence between an object and an image, taken by a camera with unknown position and parameters. A straightforward approach to this problem consists of setting up a system of conditions on the projection parameters and then checking whether or not this system has a solution. The computational advantage of the algorithm presented here, in comparison to algorithms based on the straightforward approach, lies in a significant reduction of a number of real parameters that need to be eliminated in order to establish existence or non-existence of a projection that maps a given spatial curve to a given planar curve. Our algorithm is based on projection criteria that reduce the projection problem to a certain modification of the equivalence problem of planar curves under affine and projective transformations. To solve the latter problem we make an algebraic adaptation of signature construction that has been used to solve the equivalence problems for smooth curves. We introduce a notion of a classifying set of rational differential invariants and produce explicit formulas for such invariants for the actions of the projective and the affine groups on the plane.

  6. Comparison of clinical and survival characteristics between prostate cancer patients of PSA-based screening and clinical diagnosis in China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Libo; Wang, Jinguo; Guo, Baofeng; Zhang, Haixia; Wang, Kaichen; Wang, Ding; Dai, Chang; Zhang, Ling; Zhao, Xuejian

    2018-01-02

    Prostate-specific antigen (PSA)-based mass screening remains the most controversial topic in prostate cancer. PSA-based mass screening has not been widely used in China yet. The aim of our study was to evaluate the effect of the PSA-based screening in China. The cohort consisted of 1,012 prostate cancer patients. Data were retrospectively collected and clinical characteristics of the cohorts were investigated. Survival was analyzed for prostatic carcinoma of both PSA screened and clinically diagnosed patients according to clinical characteristics and the National Comprehensive Cancer Network (NCCN) risk classification. Cox Proportional Hazards Model analysis was done for risk predictor identification. The median age was 71 years old. Five-year overall and prostate-cancer-specific survival in prostatic adenocarcinoma patients were 77.52% and 79.65%; 10-year survivals were 62.57% and 68.60%, respectively. Survival was significantly poorer in patients with metastases and non-curative management. T staging and Gleason score by NCCN classification effectively stratified prostatic adenocarcinoma patients into different risk groups. T staging was a significant predictor of survival by COX Proportional Hazard Model. PSA screened patients had a significantly higher percentage diagnosed in early stage. PSA screened prostatic adenocarcinoma patients had a better prognosis in both overall and prostate cancer-specific survivals. This Chinese cohort had a lower overall and prostate cancer survival rate than it is reported in western countries. The incidence of early-stage prostate cancer found in PSA-based mass screening was high and there were significant differences in both overall and prostate cancer-specific survival between the PSA-screened and clinically diagnosed patients.

  7. Survival pathological prognosis factors in breast cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gonzalez-Longoria Boada, Lourdes B.

    2012-01-01

    A descriptive and longitudinal study of 273 women with breast cancer belonging to Granma province was carried out from 2003 to 2004, in order to analyze the survival of this female population, reason why the method of Kaplan Meier was used for the calculation of the mentioned variable and the Log Rank test was used for the comparison of curves. Patients with higher survival at 5 years were those who had tumors of 2 cm or less (87.5%), histological grade I (90.3%), nuclear grade I (88.3%), as well as the absence of vascular, lymphatic or lymph node invasion (with 80.6; 74.9 and 6.1% respectively). Also, tumor size, histological and nuclear grade, nodal status, as well as lymphatic and vascular invasion constituted prognosis factors, which favored the individualization of therapeutic behaviors

  8. Optimization on Spaces of Curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Møller-Andersen, Jakob

    in Rd, and methods to solve the initial and boundary value problem for geodesics allowing us to compute the Karcher mean and principal components analysis of data of curves. We apply the methods to study shape variation in synthetic data in the Kimia shape database, in HeLa cell nuclei and cycles...... of cardiac deformations. Finally we investigate a new application of Riemannian shape analysis in shape optimization. We setup a simple elliptic model problem, and describe how to apply shape calculus to obtain directional derivatives in the manifold of planar curves. We present an implementation based...

  9. Migration and the Wage Curve:

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brücker, Herbert; Jahn, Elke J.

    in a general equilibrium framework. For the empirical analysis we employ the IABS, a two percent sample of the German labor force. We find that the elasticity of the wage curve is particularly high for young workers and workers with a university degree, while it is low for older workers and workers......  Based on a wage curve approach we examine the labor market effects of migration in Germany. The wage curve relies on the assumption that wages respond to a change in the unemployment rate, albeit imperfectly. This allows one to derive the wage and employment effects of migration simultaneously...... with a vocational degree. The wage and employment effects of migration are moderate: a 1 percent increase in the German labor force through immigration increases the aggregate unemployment rate by less than 0.1 percentage points and reduces average wages by less 0.1 percent. While native workers benefit from...

  10. Modelling stochastic chances in curve shape, with an application to cancer diagnostics

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Hobolth, A; Jensen, Eva B. Vedel

    2000-01-01

    Often, the statistical analysis of the shape of a random planar curve is based on a model for a polygonal approximation to the curve. In the present paper, we instead describe the curve as a continuous stochastic deformation of a template curve. The advantage of this continuous approach is that t......Often, the statistical analysis of the shape of a random planar curve is based on a model for a polygonal approximation to the curve. In the present paper, we instead describe the curve as a continuous stochastic deformation of a template curve. The advantage of this continuous approach...... is that the parameters in the model do not relate to a particular polygonal approximation. A somewhat similar approach has been used by Kent et al. (1996), who describe the limiting behaviour of a model with a first-order Markov property as the landmarks on the curve become closely spaced; see also Grenander(1993...

  11. Challenges in the estimation of Net SURvival: The CENSUR working survival group.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giorgi, R

    2016-10-01

    Net survival, the survival probability that would be observed, in a hypothetical world, where the cancer of interest would be the only possible cause of death, is a key indicator in population-based cancer studies. Accounting for mortality due to other causes, it allows cross-country comparisons or trends analysis and provides a useful indicator for public health decision-making. The objective of this study was to show how the creation and formalization of a network comprising established research teams, which already had substantial and complementary experience in both cancer survival analysis and methodological development, make it possible to meet challenges and thus provide more adequate tools, to improve the quality and the comparability of cancer survival data, and to promote methodological transfers in areas of emerging interest. The Challenges in the Estimation of Net SURvival (CENSUR) working survival group is composed of international researchers highly skilled in biostatistics, methodology, and epidemiology, from different research organizations in France, the United Kingdom, Italy, Slovenia, and Canada, and involved in French (FRANCIM) and European (EUROCARE) cancer registry networks. The expected advantages are an interdisciplinary, international, synergistic network capable of addressing problems in public health, for decision-makers at different levels; tools for those in charge of net survival analyses; a common methodology that makes unbiased cross-national comparisons of cancer survival feasible; transfer of methods for net survival estimations to other specific applications (clinical research, occupational epidemiology); and dissemination of results during an international training course. The formalization of the international CENSUR working survival group was motivated by a need felt by scientists conducting population-based cancer research to discuss, develop, and monitor implementation of a common methodology to analyze net survival in order

  12. Potentiometric titration curves of aluminium salt solutions and its ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Potentiometric titration curves of aluminium salt solutions and its species conversion ... of aluminium salt solutions under the moderate slow rate of base injection. ... silicate radical, and organic acid radical on the titration curves and its critical ...

  13. On the analysis of clonogenic survival data: Statistical alternatives to the linear-quadratic model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Unkel, Steffen; Belka, Claus; Lauber, Kirsten

    2016-01-01

    The most frequently used method to quantitatively describe the response to ionizing irradiation in terms of clonogenic survival is the linear-quadratic (LQ) model. In the LQ model, the logarithm of the surviving fraction is regressed linearly on the radiation dose by means of a second-degree polynomial. The ratio of the estimated parameters for the linear and quadratic term, respectively, represents the dose at which both terms have the same weight in the abrogation of clonogenic survival. This ratio is known as the α/β ratio. However, there are plausible scenarios in which the α/β ratio fails to sufficiently reflect differences between dose-response curves, for example when curves with similar α/β ratio but different overall steepness are being compared. In such situations, the interpretation of the LQ model is severely limited. Colony formation assays were performed in order to measure the clonogenic survival of nine human pancreatic cancer cell lines and immortalized human pancreatic ductal epithelial cells upon irradiation at 0-10 Gy. The resulting dataset was subjected to LQ regression and non-linear log-logistic regression. Dimensionality reduction of the data was performed by cluster analysis and principal component analysis. Both the LQ model and the non-linear log-logistic regression model resulted in accurate approximations of the observed dose-response relationships in the dataset of clonogenic survival. However, in contrast to the LQ model the non-linear regression model allowed the discrimination of curves with different overall steepness but similar α/β ratio and revealed an improved goodness-of-fit. Additionally, the estimated parameters in the non-linear model exhibit a more direct interpretation than the α/β ratio. Dimensionality reduction of clonogenic survival data by means of cluster analysis was shown to be a useful tool for classifying radioresistant and sensitive cell lines. More quantitatively, principal component analysis allowed

  14. On-chip magnetic bead-based DNA melting curve analysis using a magnetoresistive sensor

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rizzi, Giovanni; Østerberg, Frederik Westergaard; Henriksen, Anders Dahl

    2014-01-01

    We present real-time measurements of DNA melting curves in a chip-based system that detects the amount of surface-bound magnetic beads using magnetoresistive magnetic field sensors. The sensors detect the difference between the amount of beads bound to the top and bottom sensor branches....... The beads are magnetized by the field arising from the bias current passed through the sensors. We demonstrate the first on-chip measurements of the melting of DNA hybrids upon a ramping of the temperature. This overcomes the limitation of using a single washing condition at constant temperature. Moreover...

  15. Optical fiber sensors for process refractometry and temperature measuring based on curved fibers

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Willsch, R.; Schwotzer, G.; Haubenreisser, W.; Jahn, J.U.

    1986-01-01

    Based on U-shape curved multimode fibers with defined bending radii intensity-modulated optical sensors for the determination of refractive index changes in liquids and related measurands (solution concentration, mixing ratio and others) in process-refractometry and for temperature measuring under special environmental conditions have been developed. The optoelectronic transmitting and receiving units are performed in modular technique and can be used in multi-purpose applications. The principles, performance and characteristical properties of these sensors are described and their possibilities of application in process measuring and automation are discussed by some selected examples. (orig.) [de

  16. Optical fiber sensors for process refractometry and temperature measuring based on curved fibers

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Willsch, R; Schwotzer, G; Haubenreisser, W; Jahn, J U

    1986-01-01

    Based on U-shape curved multimode fibers with defined bending radii intensity-modulated optical sensors for the determination of refractive index changes in liquids and related measurands (solution concentration, mixing ratio and others) in process-refractometry and for temperature measuring under special environmental conditions have been developed. The optoelectronic transmitting and receiving units are performed in modular technique and can be used in multi-purpose applications. The principles, performance and characteristical properties of these sensors are described and their possibilities of application in process measuring and automation are discussed by some selected examples.

  17. Childhood cancer incidence and survival in Japan and England: A population-based study (1993-2010).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nakata, Kayo; Ito, Yuri; Magadi, Winnie; Bonaventure, Audrey; Stiller, Charles A; Katanoda, Kota; Matsuda, Tomohiro; Miyashiro, Isao; Pritchard-Jones, Kathy; Rachet, Bernard

    2018-02-01

    The present study aimed to compare cancer incidence and trends in survival for children diagnosed in Japan and England, using population-based cancer registry data. The analysis was based on 5192 children with cancer (age 0-14 years) from 6 prefectural cancer registries in Japan and 21 295 children diagnosed in England during 1993-2010. Differences in incidence rates between the 2 countries were measured with Poisson regression models. Overall survival was estimated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Incidence rates for Hodgkin lymphoma, renal tumors and Ewing sarcomas in England were more than twice as high as those in Japan. Incidence of germ cell tumors, hepatic tumors, neuroblastoma and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) was higher in Japan than in England. Incidence of all cancers combined decreased in Japan throughout the period 1993 to 2010, which was mainly explained by a decrease in registration of neuroblastoma in infants. For many cancers, 5-year survival improved in both countries. The improvement in survival in chronic myeloid leukemia (CML) was particularly dramatic in both countries. However, 5-year survival remained less than 80% in 2005-2008 in both countries for AML, brain tumors, soft tissue sarcomas, malignant bone tumors and neuroblastoma (age 1-14 years). There were significant differences in incidence of several cancers between countries, suggesting variation in genetic susceptibility and possibly environmental factors. The decrease in incidence for all cancers combined in Japan was related to the cessation of the national screening program for neuroblastoma. The large improvement in survival in CML coincided with the introduction of effective therapy (imatinib). © 2017 The Authors. Cancer Science published by John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd on behalf of Japanese Cancer Association.

  18. Long-term survival among Hodgkin's lymphoma patients with gastrointestinal cancer: a population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Youn, P.; Li, H.; Milano, M. T.; Stovall, M.; Constine, L. S.; Travis, L. B.

    2013-01-01

    Background The increased risk of gastrointestinal (GI) cancers after Hodgkin's lymphoma (HL) is well established. However, no large population-based study has described the actuarial survival after subsequent GI cancers in HL survivors (HL-GI). Patients and methods For 209 patients with HL-GI cancers (105 colon, 35 stomach, 30 pancreas, 21 rectum, and 18 esophagus) and 484 165 patients with first primary GI cancers (GI-1), actuarial survival was compared, accounting for age, gender, race, GI cancer stage, radiation for HL, and other variables. Results Though survival of HL patients who developed localized stage colon cancer was similar to that of the GI-1 group, overall survival (OS) of HL patients with regional or distant stage colon cancer was reduced [hazard ratio, (HR) = 1.46, P = 0.01]. The HL survivors with regional or distant stage colon cancer in the transverse segment had an especially high risk of mortality (HR: 2.7, P = 0.001 for OS). For localized stomach cancer, OS was inferior among HL survivors (HR = 3.46, P = 0.006). Conclusions The HL patients who develop GI cancer experience significantly reduced survival compared with patients with a first primary GI cancer. Further research is needed to explain the inferior survival of HL patients and to define selection criteria for cancer screening in HL survivors. PMID:22855552

  19. Improved survival in HIV treatment programs in Asia

    Science.gov (United States)

    De La Mata, Nicole L; Kumarasamy, Nagalingeswaran; Khol, Vohith; Ng, Oon Tek; Van Nguyen, Kinh; Merati, Tuti Parwati; Pham, Thuy Thanh; Lee, Man Po; Durier, Nicolas; Law, Matthew

    2016-01-01

    Background Antiretroviral treatment (ART) for HIV-positive patients has expanded rapidly in Asia over the last ten years. Our study aimed to describe the time trends and risk factors for overall survival in patients receiving first-line ART in Asia. Methods We included HIV-positive adult patients who initiated ART between 2003–2013 (n=16 546), from seven sites across six Asia-Pacific countries. Patient follow-up was to May 2014. We compared survival for each country and overall by time period of ART initiation using Kaplan-Meier curves. Factors associated with mortality were assessed using Cox regression, stratified by site. We also summarized first-line ART regimens, CD4 count at ART initiation, and CD4 and HIV viral load testing frequencies. Results There were 880 deaths observed over 54 532 person-years of follow-up, a crude rate of 1.61 (1.51, 1.72) per 100 person-years. Survival significantly improved in more recent years of ART initiation. The survival probabilities at 4 years follow-up for those initiating ART in 2003–05 was 92.1%, 2006–09 was 94.3% and 2010–2013 was 94.5% (pAsia have improved survival in more recent years of ART initiation. This is likely a consequence of improvements in treatment and, patient management and monitoring over time. PMID:26961354

  20. Stenting for curved lesions using a novel curved balloon: Preliminary experimental study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomita, Hideshi; Higaki, Takashi; Kobayashi, Toshiki; Fujii, Takanari; Fujimoto, Kazuto

    2015-08-01

    Stenting may be a compelling approach to dilating curved lesions in congenital heart diseases. However, balloon-expandable stents, which are commonly used for congenital heart diseases, are usually deployed in a straight orientation. In this study, we evaluated the effect of stenting with a novel curved balloon considered to provide better conformability to the curved-angled lesion. In vitro experiments: A Palmaz Genesis(®) stent (Johnson & Johnson, Cordis Co, Bridgewater, NJ, USA) mounted on the Goku(®) curve (Tokai Medical Co. Nagoya, Japan) was dilated in vitro to observe directly the behavior of the stent and balloon assembly during expansion. Animal experiment: A short Express(®) Vascular SD (Boston Scientific Co, Marlborough, MA, USA) stent and a long Express(®) Vascular LD stent (Boston Scientific) mounted on the curved balloon were deployed in the curved vessel of a pig to observe the effect of stenting in vivo. In vitro experiments: Although the stent was dilated in a curved fashion, stent and balloon assembly also rotated conjointly during expansion of its curved portion. In the primary stenting of the short stent, the stent was dilated with rotation of the curved portion. The excised stent conformed to the curved vessel. As the long stent could not be negotiated across the mid-portion with the balloon in expansion when it started curving, the mid-portion of the stent failed to expand fully. Furthermore, the balloon, which became entangled with the stent strut, could not be retrieved even after complete deflation. This novel curved balloon catheter might be used for implantation of the short stent in a curved lesion; however, it should not be used for primary stenting of the long stent. Post-dilation to conform the stent to the angled vessel would be safer than primary stenting irrespective of stent length. Copyright © 2014 Japanese College of Cardiology. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. Curve Boxplot: Generalization of Boxplot for Ensembles of Curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirzargar, Mahsa; Whitaker, Ross T; Kirby, Robert M

    2014-12-01

    In simulation science, computational scientists often study the behavior of their simulations by repeated solutions with variations in parameters and/or boundary values or initial conditions. Through such simulation ensembles, one can try to understand or quantify the variability or uncertainty in a solution as a function of the various inputs or model assumptions. In response to a growing interest in simulation ensembles, the visualization community has developed a suite of methods for allowing users to observe and understand the properties of these ensembles in an efficient and effective manner. An important aspect of visualizing simulations is the analysis of derived features, often represented as points, surfaces, or curves. In this paper, we present a novel, nonparametric method for summarizing ensembles of 2D and 3D curves. We propose an extension of a method from descriptive statistics, data depth, to curves. We also demonstrate a set of rendering and visualization strategies for showing rank statistics of an ensemble of curves, which is a generalization of traditional whisker plots or boxplots to multidimensional curves. Results are presented for applications in neuroimaging, hurricane forecasting and fluid dynamics.

  2. JUMPING THE CURVE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    René Pellissier

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper explores the notion ofjump ing the curve,following from Handy 's S-curve onto a new curve with new rules policies and procedures. . It claims that the curve does not generally lie in wait but has to be invented by leadership. The focus of this paper is the identification (mathematically and inferentially ofthat point in time, known as the cusp in catastrophe theory, when it is time to change - pro-actively, pre-actively or reactively. These three scenarios are addressed separately and discussed in terms ofthe relevance ofeach.

  3. Survival and health in liveborn infants with transposition of great arteries--a population-based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garne, Ester; Loane, Maria A; Nelen, Vera; Bakker, Marian K; Gener, Blanca; Abramsky, Lenore; Addor, Marie-Claude; Queisser-Luft, Annette

    2007-01-01

    To describe treatment, survival, and morbidity for liveborn infants with isolated transposition of great arteries (TGA). Population-based data from 7 European registries of congenital malformations (EUROCAT). Ninety-seven infants were diagnosed with isolated TGA and livebirth prevalence was 2.0 per 10,000 livebirths. The majority of infants were treated with prostaglandins (83%) and 57% had a catheter atrial septostomia performed. Arterial switch surgery was performed in 78 infants, other or unknown type of surgery was performed in 3 cases, and for 6 infants there was no information on surgery. At 1 year of age 69 infants were alive (71%) and 24 (25%) were dead (4 unknown). There were 10 deaths before surgery and 58% of all deaths took place during the first week. There was no statistically significant regional difference in mortality. Eight infants diagnosed prenatally all survived to 1 year and only 71% of infants diagnosed after birth survived (P = 0.08). Data on morbidity at 1 year of age was available for 57 infants. Fifty-one infants were reported with normal health and development. In this population-based study survival for liveborn infants with TGA is lower than in studies published from tertiary centers. Outcome for survivors at 1 year of age seems favorable.

  4. INVESTIGATION OF CURVES SET BY CUBIC DISTRIBUTION OF CURVATURE

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. A. Ustenko

    2014-03-01

    Full Text Available Purpose. Further development of the geometric modeling of curvelinear contours of different objects based on the specified cubic curvature distribution and setpoints of curvature in the boundary points. Methodology. We investigate the flat section of the curvilinear contour generating under condition that cubic curvature distribution is set. Curve begins and ends at the given points, where angles of tangent slope and curvature are also determined. It was obtained the curvature equation of this curve, depending on the section length and coefficient c of cubic curvature distribution. The analysis of obtained equation was carried out. As well as, it was investigated the conditions, in which the inflection points of the curve are appearing. One should find such an interval of parameter change (depending on the input data and the section length, in order to place the inflection point of the curvature graph outside the curve section borders. It was determined the dependence of tangent slope of angle to the curve at its arbitrary point, as well as it was given the recommendations to solve a system of integral equations that allow finding the length of the curve section and the coefficient c of curvature cubic distribution. Findings. As the result of curves research, it is found that the criterion for their selection one can consider the absence of inflection points of the curvature on the observed section. Influence analysis of the parameter c on the graph of tangent slope angle to the curve showed that regardless of its value, it is provided the same rate of angle increase of tangent slope to the curve. Originality. It is improved the approach to geometric modeling of curves based on cubic curvature distribution with its given values at the boundary points by eliminating the inflection points from the observed section of curvilinear contours. Practical value. Curves obtained using the proposed method can be used for geometric modeling of curvilinear

  5. Formulae for Arithmetic on Genus 2 Hyperelliptic Curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Lange, Tanja

    2005-01-01

    The ideal class group of hyperelliptic curves can be used in cryptosystems based on the discrete logarithm problem. In this article we present explicit formulae to perform the group operations for genus 2 curves. The formulae are completely general but to achieve the lowest number of operations we...... treat odd and even characteristic separately. We present 3 different coordinate systems which are suitable for different environments, e.g. on a smart card we should avoid inversions while in software a limited number is acceptable. The presented formulae render genus two hyperelliptic curves very...

  6. The EB factory project. I. A fast, neural-net-based, general purpose light curve classifier optimized for eclipsing binaries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Paegert, Martin; Stassun, Keivan G.; Burger, Dan M.

    2014-01-01

    We describe a new neural-net-based light curve classifier and provide it with documentation as a ready-to-use tool for the community. While optimized for identification and classification of eclipsing binary stars, the classifier is general purpose, and has been developed for speed in the context of upcoming massive surveys such as the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope. A challenge for classifiers in the context of neural-net training and massive data sets is to minimize the number of parameters required to describe each light curve. We show that a simple and fast geometric representation that encodes the overall light curve shape, together with a chi-square parameter to capture higher-order morphology information results in efficient yet robust light curve classification, especially for eclipsing binaries. Testing the classifier on the ASAS light curve database, we achieve a retrieval rate of 98% and a false-positive rate of 2% for eclipsing binaries. We achieve similarly high retrieval rates for most other periodic variable-star classes, including RR Lyrae, Mira, and delta Scuti. However, the classifier currently has difficulty discriminating between different sub-classes of eclipsing binaries, and suffers a relatively low (∼60%) retrieval rate for multi-mode delta Cepheid stars. We find that it is imperative to train the classifier's neural network with exemplars that include the full range of light curve quality to which the classifier will be expected to perform; the classifier performs well on noisy light curves only when trained with noisy exemplars. The classifier source code, ancillary programs, a trained neural net, and a guide for use, are provided.

  7. Dual Smarandache Curves of a Timelike Curve lying on Unit dual Lorentzian Sphere

    OpenAIRE

    Kahraman, Tanju; Hüseyin Ugurlu, Hasan

    2016-01-01

    In this paper, we give Darboux approximation for dual Smarandache curves of time like curve on unit dual Lorentzian sphere. Firstly, we define the four types of dual Smarandache curves of a timelike curve lying on dual Lorentzian sphere.

  8. PV experience curves for the Netherlands

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gerwig, R.

    2005-01-01

    Experience curves are one of several tools used by policy makers to take a look at market development. Numerous curves have been constructed for PV but none specific to the Netherlands. The objective of this report is to take a look at the price development of grid-connected PV systems in the Netherlands using the experience curve theory. After a literature and internet search and attempts to acquire information from PV companies information on 51% of the totally installed capacity was found. Curves for the period 1991-2001 were constructed based on system price, BOS (balance-of-system) price and inverter price. The progress ratio of the locally learning BOS was similar to the globally learning module market. This indicates that the pace of development of the Dutch PV market is similar to the globally followed pace. Improvement of the detail of the data might help to get a better idea of which BOS components have declined most. The similar progress ratio also shows the importance of investing both in module and system research as is the case in the Netherlands

  9. Separate base usages of genes located on the leading and lagging strands in Chlamydia muridarum revealed by the Z curve method

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yu Xiu-Juan

    2007-10-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background The nucleotide compositional asymmetry between the leading and lagging strands in bacterial genomes has been the subject of intensive study in the past few years. It is interesting to mention that almost all bacterial genomes exhibit the same kind of base asymmetry. This work aims to investigate the strand biases in Chlamydia muridarum genome and show the potential of the Z curve method for quantitatively differentiating genes on the leading and lagging strands. Results The occurrence frequencies of bases of protein-coding genes in C. muridarum genome were analyzed by the Z curve method. It was found that genes located on the two strands of replication have distinct base usages in C. muridarum genome. According to their positions in the 9-D space spanned by the variables u1 – u9 of the Z curve method, K-means clustering algorithm can assign about 94% of genes to the correct strands, which is a few percent higher than those correctly classified by K-means based on the RSCU. The base usage and codon usage analyses show that genes on the leading strand have more G than C and more T than A, particularly at the third codon position. For genes on the lagging strand the biases is reverse. The y component of the Z curves for the complete chromosome sequences show that the excess of G over C and T over A are more remarkable in C. muridarum genome than in other bacterial genomes without separating base and/or codon usages. Furthermore, for the genomes of Borrelia burgdorferi, Treponema pallidum, Chlamydia muridarum and Chlamydia trachomatis, in which distinct base and/or codon usages have been observed, closer phylogenetic distance is found compared with other bacterial genomes. Conclusion The nature of the strand biases of base composition in C. muridarum is similar to that in most other bacterial genomes. However, the base composition asymmetry between the leading and lagging strands in C. muridarum is more significant than that in

  10. Nomogram-based Prediction of Overall Survival in Patients with Metastatic Urothelial Carcinoma Receiving First-line Platinum-based Chemotherapy

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Necchi, Andrea; Sonpavde, Guru; Lo Vullo, Salvatore

    2017-01-01

    BACKGROUND: The available prognostic models for overall survival (OS) in patients with metastatic urothelial carcinoma (UC) have been derived from clinical trial populations of cisplatin-treated patients. OBJECTIVE: To develop a new model based on real-world patients. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICI...

  11. Modeling the kinetics of survival of Staphylococcus aureus in regional yogurt from goat's milk.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bednarko-Młynarczyk, E; Szteyn, J; Białobrzewski, I; Wiszniewska-Łaszczych, A; Liedtke, K

    2015-01-01

    The aim of this study was to determine the kinetics of the survival of the test strain of Staphylococcus aureus in the product investigated. Yogurt samples were contaminated with S. aure to an initial level of 10(3)-10(4) cfu/g. The samples were then stored at four temperatures: 4, 6, 20, 22°C. During storage, the number of S. aureus forming colonies in a gram of yogurt was determined every two hours. Based on the results of the analysis culture the curves of survival were plotted. Three primary models were selected to describe the kinetics of changes in the count of bacteria: Cole's model, a modified model of Gompertz and the model of Baranyi and Roberts. Analysis of the model fit carried out based on the average values of Pearson's correlation coefficient, between the modeled and measured values, showed that the Cole's model had the worst fit. The modified Gompertz model showed the count of S. aureus as a negative value. These drawbacks were not observed in the model of Baranyi and Roberts. For this reason, this model best reflects the kinetics of changes in the number of staphylococci in yogurt.

  12. Seismic Fragility Curves of Industrial Buildings by Using Nonlinear Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohamed Nazri Fadzli

    2017-01-01

    Full Text Available This study presents the steel fragility curves and performance curves of industrial buildings of different geometries. The fragility curves were obtained for different building geometries, and the performance curves were developed based on lateral load, which is affected by the geometry of the building. Three records of far-field ground motion were used for incremental dynamic analysis (IDA, and the design lateral loads for pushover analysis (POA. All designs were based on British Standard (BS 5950; however, Eurocode 8 was preferred for seismic consideration in the analysis because BS 5950 does not specify any seismic provision. The five levels of performance stated by FEMA-273, namely, operational phase, immediate occupancy, damage control, life safety, and collapse prevention (CP were used as main guidelines for evaluating structural performance. For POA, Model 2 had highest base shear, followed by Model 1 and Model 3, even though Model 2 has a smaller structure compared with Model 3. Meanwhile, the fragility curves showed that the probability of reaching or exceeding the CP level of Model 2 is the highest, followed by that of Models 1 and 3.

  13. Development of a cell-based treatment for long-term neurotrophin expression and spiral ganglion neuron survival.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zanin, M P; Hellström, M; Shepherd, R K; Harvey, A R; Gillespie, L N

    2014-09-26

    Spiral ganglion neurons (SGNs), the target cells of the cochlear implant, undergo gradual degeneration following loss of the sensory epithelium in deafness. The preservation of a viable population of SGNs in deafness can be achieved in animal models with exogenous application of neurotrophins such as brain-derived neurotrophic factor (BDNF) and neurotrophin-3. For translation into clinical application, a suitable delivery strategy that provides ongoing neurotrophic support and promotes long-term SGN survival is required. Cell-based neurotrophin treatment has the potential to meet the specific requirements for clinical application, and we have previously reported that Schwann cells genetically modified to express BDNF can support SGN survival in deafness for 4 weeks. This study aimed to investigate various parameters important for the development of a long-term cell-based neurotrophin treatment to support SGN survival. Specifically, we investigated different (i) cell types, (ii) gene transfer methods and (iii) neurotrophins, in order to determine which variables may provide long-term neurotrophin expression and which, therefore, may be the most effective for supporting long-term SGN survival in vivo. We found that fibroblasts that were nucleofected to express BDNF provided the most sustained neurotrophin expression, with ongoing BDNF expression for at least 30 weeks. In addition, the secreted neurotrophin was biologically active and elicited survival effects on SGNs in vitro. Nucleofected fibroblasts may therefore represent a method for safe, long-term delivery of neurotrophins to the deafened cochlea to support SGN survival in deafness. Copyright © 2014 IBRO. Published by Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. High resolution melt curve analysis based on methylation status for human semen identification.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fachet, Caitlyn; Quarino, Lawrence; Karnas, K Joy

    2017-03-01

    A high resolution melt curve assay to differentiate semen from blood, saliva, urine, and vaginal fluid based on methylation status at the Dapper Isoform 1 (DACT1) gene was developed. Stains made from blood, saliva, urine, semen, and vaginal fluid were obtained from volunteers and DNA was isolated using either organic extraction (saliva, urine, and vaginal fluid) or Chelex ® 100 extraction (blood and semen). Extracts were then subjected to bisulfite modification in order to convert unmethylated cytosines to uracil, consequently creating sequences whose amplicons have melt curves that vary depending on their initial methylation status. When primers designed to amplify the promoter region of the DACT1 gene were used, DNA from semen samples was distinguishable from other fluids by a having a statistically significant lower melting temperature. The assay was found to be sperm-significant since semen from a vasectomized man produced a melting temperature similar to the non-semen body fluids. Blood and semen stains stored up to 5 months and tested at various intervals showed little variation in melt temperature indicating the methylation status was stable during the course of the study. The assay is a more viable method for forensic science practice than most molecular-based methods for body fluid stain identification since it is time efficient and utilizes instrumentation common to forensic biology laboratories. In addition, the assay is advantageous over traditional presumptive chemical methods for body fluid identification since results are confirmatory and the assay offers the possibility of multiplexing which may test for multiple body fluids simultaneously.

  15. An approach to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kharchenko, Vyacheslav; Fesenko, Herman; Doukas, Nikos

    2017-09-01

    An approach and the algorithm to the drone fleet survivability assessment based on a stochastic continues-time model are proposed. The input data are the number of the drones, the drone fleet redundancy coefficient, the drone stability and restoration rate, the limit deviation from the norms of the drone fleet recovery, the drone fleet operational availability coefficient, the probability of the drone failure-free operation, time needed for performing the required tasks by the drone fleet. The ways for improving the recoverable drone fleet survivability taking into account amazing factors of system accident are suggested. Dependencies of the drone fleet survivability rate both on the drone stability and the number of the drones are analysed.

  16. SU-E-T-488: An Iso-Dose Curve Based Interactive IMRT Optimization System for Physician-Driven Plan Tuning

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shi, F; Tian, Z; Jia, X; Jiang, S; Zarepisheh, M; Cervino, L

    2014-01-01

    Purpose: In treatment plan optimization for Intensity Modulated Radiation Therapy (IMRT), after a plan is initially developed by a dosimetrist, the attending physician evaluates its quality and often would like to improve it. As opposed to having the dosimetrist implement the improvements, it is desirable to have the physician directly and efficiently modify the plan for a more streamlined and effective workflow. In this project, we developed an interactive optimization system for physicians to conveniently and efficiently fine-tune iso-dose curves. Methods: An interactive interface is developed under C++/Qt. The physician first examines iso-dose lines. S/he then picks an iso-dose curve to be improved and drags it to a more desired configuration using a computer mouse or touchpad. Once the mouse is released, a voxel-based optimization engine is launched. The weighting factors corresponding to voxels between the iso-dose lines before and after the dragging are modified. The underlying algorithm then takes these factors as input to re-optimize the plan in near real-time on a GPU platform, yielding a new plan best matching the physician's desire. The re-optimized DVHs and iso-dose curves are then updated for the next iteration of modifications. This process is repeated until a physician satisfactory plan is achieved. Results: We have tested this system for a series of IMRT plans. Results indicate that our system provides the physicians an intuitive and efficient tool to edit the iso-dose curves according to their preference. The input information is used to guide plan re-optimization, which is achieved in near real-time using our GPU-based optimization engine. Typically, a satisfactory plan can be developed by a physician in a few minutes using this tool. Conclusion: With our system, physicians are able to manipulate iso-dose curves according to their preferences. Preliminary results demonstrate the feasibility and effectiveness of this tool

  17. Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yan, Hongxiang; Sun, Ning; Wigmosta, Mark; Skaggs, Richard; Hou, Zhangshuan; Leung, Ruby

    2018-02-01

    There is a renewed focus on the design of infrastructure resilient to extreme hydrometeorological events. While precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are commonly used as part of infrastructure design, a large percentage of peak runoff events in snow-dominated regions are caused by snowmelt, particularly during rain-on-snow (ROS) events. In these regions, precipitation-based IDF curves may lead to substantial overestimation/underestimation of design basis events and subsequent overdesign/underdesign of infrastructure. To overcome this deficiency, we proposed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface. We compared NG-IDF curves to standard precipitation-based IDF curves for estimates of extreme events at 376 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States that each had at least 30 years of high-quality records. We found standard precipitation-based IDF curves at 45% of the stations were subject to underdesign, many with significant underestimation of 100 year extreme events, for which the precipitation-based IDF curves can underestimate water potentially available for runoff by as much as 125% due to snowmelt and ROS events. The regions with the greatest potential for underdesign were in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and the Middle and Southern Rockies. We also found the potential for overdesign at 20% of the stations, primarily in the Middle Rockies and Arizona mountains. These results demonstrate the need to consider snow processes in the development of IDF curves, and they suggest use of the more robust NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated environments.

  18. Ionization constants by curve fitting: determination of partition and distribution coefficients of acids and bases and their ions.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Clarke, F H; Cahoon, N M

    1987-08-01

    A convenient procedure has been developed for the determination of partition and distribution coefficients. The method involves the potentiometric titration of the compound, first in water and then in a rapidly stirred mixture of water and octanol. An automatic titrator is used, and the data is collected and analyzed by curve fitting on a microcomputer with 64 K of memory. The method is rapid and accurate for compounds with pKa values between 4 and 10. Partition coefficients can be measured for monoprotic and diprotic acids and bases. The partition coefficients of the neutral compound and its ion(s) can be determined by varying the ratio of octanol to water. Distribution coefficients calculated over a wide range of pH values are presented graphically as "distribution profiles". It is shown that subtraction of the titration curve of solvent alone from that of the compound in the solvent offers advantages for pKa determination by curve fitting for compounds of low aqueous solubility.

  19. Technological change in energy systems. Learning curves, logistic curves and input-output coefficients

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pan, Haoran; Koehler, Jonathan

    2007-01-01

    Learning curves have recently been widely adopted in climate-economy models to incorporate endogenous change of energy technologies, replacing the conventional assumption of an autonomous energy efficiency improvement. However, there has been little consideration of the credibility of the learning curve. The current trend that many important energy and climate change policy analyses rely on the learning curve means that it is of great importance to critically examine the basis for learning curves. Here, we analyse the use of learning curves in energy technology, usually implemented as a simple power function. We find that the learning curve cannot separate the effects of price and technological change, cannot reflect continuous and qualitative change of both conventional and emerging energy technologies, cannot help to determine the time paths of technological investment, and misses the central role of R and D activity in driving technological change. We argue that a logistic curve of improving performance modified to include R and D activity as a driving variable can better describe the cost reductions in energy technologies. Furthermore, we demonstrate that the top-down Leontief technology can incorporate the bottom-up technologies that improve along either the learning curve or the logistic curve, through changing input-output coefficients. An application to UK wind power illustrates that the logistic curve fits the observed data better and implies greater potential for cost reduction than the learning curve does. (author)

  20. Trends in adult leukemia incidence and survival in Denmark, 1943-2003

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thygesen, Lau Caspar; Nielsen, Ove Juul; Johansen, Christoffer

    2009-01-01

    The etiology of leukemia is largely unknown. Ecological data indicating trends in incidence and survival can provide information about changes in risk factors, can reflect underlying changes in diagnostic classification, and can measure therapeutic advances. From the records of the Danish Cancer...... Registry with registration starting from 1943, we calculated age-specific, period-specific, and age-standardized (world standard) incidence rates of chronic lymphoid leukemia (CLL), acute lymphoid leukemia (ALL), chronic myeloid leukemia (CML), and acute myeloid leukemia (AML) for persons above the age...... of 18. Kaplan-Meier survival curves and median survival times were calculated. Between 1943 and 2003, there were 26,036 cases of leukemia reported. The age-specific incidence rates of CLL, CML, and AML were higher for older men and women, while the incidence rates of ALL by age were more homogeneous...

  1. The inflammation-based Glasgow Prognostic Score predicts survival in patients with cervical cancer.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Polterauer, Stephan; Grimm, Christoph; Seebacher, Veronika; Rahhal, Jasmin; Tempfer, Clemens; Reinthaller, Alexander; Hefler, Lukas

    2010-08-01

    The Glasgow Prognostic Score (GPS) is known to reflect the degree of tumor-associated cachexia and inflammation and is associated with survival in various malignancies. We investigated the value of the GPS in patients with cervical cancer. We included 244 consecutive patients with cervical cancer in our study. The pretherapeutic GPS was calculated as follows: patients with elevated C-reactive protein serum levels (>10 mg/L) and hypoalbuminemia (L) were allocated a score of 2, and patients with 1 or no abnormal value were allocated a score of 1 or 0, respectively. The association between GPS and survival was evaluated by univariate log-rank tests and multivariate Cox regression models. The GPS was correlated with clinicopathologic parameters as shown by performing chi2 tests. In univariate analyses, GPS (P GPS (P = 0.03, P = 0.04), FIGO stage (P = 0.006, P = 0.006), and lymph node involvement (P = 0.003, P = 0.002), but not patients' age (P = 0.5, P = 0.5), histological grade (P = 0.7, P = 0.6), and histological type (P = 0.4, P = 0.6) were associated with disease-free and overall survival, respectively. The GPS was associated with FIGO stage (P GPS can be used as an inflammation-based predictor for survival in patients with cervical cancer.

  2. Deep-learnt classification of light curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Mahabal, Ashish; Gieseke, Fabian; Pai, Akshay Sadananda Uppinakudru

    2017-01-01

    is to derive statistical features from the time series and to use machine learning methods, generally supervised, to separate objects into a few of the standard classes. In this work, we transform the time series to two-dimensional light curve representations in order to classify them using modern deep......Astronomy light curves are sparse, gappy, and heteroscedastic. As a result standard time series methods regularly used for financial and similar datasets are of little help and astronomers are usually left to their own instruments and techniques to classify light curves. A common approach...... learning techniques. In particular, we show that convolutional neural networks based classifiers work well for broad characterization and classification. We use labeled datasets of periodic variables from CRTS survey and show how this opens doors for a quick classification of diverse classes with several...

  3. MULTICOMPONENT DETERMINATION OF CHLORINATED HYDROCARBONS USING A REACTION-BASED CHEMICAL SENSOR .2. CHEMICAL SPECIATION USING MULTIVARIATE CURVE RESOLUTION

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Tauler, R.; Smilde, A. K.; HENSHAW, J. M.; BURGESS, L. W.; KOWALSKI, B. R.

    1994-01-01

    A new multivariate curve resolution method that can extract analytical information from UV/visible spectroscopic data collected from a reaction-based chemical sensor is proposed. The method is demonstrated with the determination of mixtures of chlorinated hydrocarbons by estimating the kinetic and

  4. Gelfond–Bézier curves

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-Haddou, Rachid; Sakane, Yusuke; Nomura, Taishin

    2013-01-01

    We show that the generalized Bernstein bases in Müntz spaces defined by Hirschman and Widder (1949) and extended by Gelfond (1950) can be obtained as pointwise limits of the Chebyshev–Bernstein bases in Müntz spaces with respect to an interval [a,1][a,1] as the positive real number a converges to zero. Such a realization allows for concepts of curve design such as de Casteljau algorithm, blossom, dimension elevation to be transferred from the general theory of Chebyshev blossoms in Müntz spaces to these generalized Bernstein bases that we termed here as Gelfond–Bernstein bases. The advantage of working with Gelfond–Bernstein bases lies in the simplicity of the obtained concepts and algorithms as compared to their Chebyshev–Bernstein bases counterparts.

  5. Gelfond–Bézier curves

    KAUST Repository

    Ait-Haddou, Rachid

    2013-02-01

    We show that the generalized Bernstein bases in Müntz spaces defined by Hirschman and Widder (1949) and extended by Gelfond (1950) can be obtained as pointwise limits of the Chebyshev–Bernstein bases in Müntz spaces with respect to an interval [a,1][a,1] as the positive real number a converges to zero. Such a realization allows for concepts of curve design such as de Casteljau algorithm, blossom, dimension elevation to be transferred from the general theory of Chebyshev blossoms in Müntz spaces to these generalized Bernstein bases that we termed here as Gelfond–Bernstein bases. The advantage of working with Gelfond–Bernstein bases lies in the simplicity of the obtained concepts and algorithms as compared to their Chebyshev–Bernstein bases counterparts.

  6. Revealing the equivalence of two clonal survival models by principal component analysis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lachet, Bernard; Dufour, Jacques

    1976-01-01

    The principal component analysis of 21 chlorella cell survival curves, adjusted by one-hit and two-hit target models, lead to quite similar projections on the principal plan: the homologous parameters of these models are linearly correlated; the reason for the statistical equivalence of these two models, in the present state of experimental inaccuracy, is revealed [fr

  7. Automatic Curve Fitting Based on Radial Basis Functions and a Hierarchical Genetic Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Trejo-Caballero

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Curve fitting is a very challenging problem that arises in a wide variety of scientific and engineering applications. Given a set of data points, possibly noisy, the goal is to build a compact representation of the curve that corresponds to the best estimate of the unknown underlying relationship between two variables. Despite the large number of methods available to tackle this problem, it remains challenging and elusive. In this paper, a new method to tackle such problem using strictly a linear combination of radial basis functions (RBFs is proposed. To be more specific, we divide the parameter search space into linear and nonlinear parameter subspaces. We use a hierarchical genetic algorithm (HGA to minimize a model selection criterion, which allows us to automatically and simultaneously determine the nonlinear parameters and then, by the least-squares method through Singular Value Decomposition method, to compute the linear parameters. The method is fully automatic and does not require subjective parameters, for example, smooth factor or centre locations, to perform the solution. In order to validate the efficacy of our approach, we perform an experimental study with several tests on benchmarks smooth functions. A comparative analysis with two successful methods based on RBF networks has been included.

  8. Composite Field Multiplier based on Look-Up Table for Elliptic Curve Cryptography Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisa W. Paryasto

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Implementing a secure cryptosystem requires operations involving hundreds of bits. One of the most recommended algorithm is Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC. The complexity of elliptic curve algorithms and parameters with hundreds of bits requires specific design and implementation strategy. The design architecture must be customized according to security requirement, available resources and parameter choices. In this work we propose the use of composite field to implement finite field multiplication for ECC implementation. We use 299-bit keylength represented in GF((21323 instead of in GF(2299. Composite field multiplier can be implemented using different multiplier for ground-field and for extension field. In this paper, LUT is used for multiplication in the ground-field and classic multiplieris used for the extension field multiplication. A generic architecture for the multiplier is presented. Implementation is done with VHDL with the target device Altera DE2. The work in this paper uses the simplest algorithm to confirm the idea that by dividing field into composite, use different multiplier for base and extension field would give better trade-off for time and area. This work will be the beginning of our more advanced further research that implements composite-field using Mastrovito Hybrid, KOA and LUT.

  9. Composite Field Multiplier based on Look-Up Table for Elliptic Curve Cryptography Implementation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Marisa W. Paryasto

    2013-09-01

    Full Text Available Implementing a secure cryptosystem requires operations involving hundreds of bits. One of the most recommended algorithm is Elliptic Curve Cryptography (ECC. The complexity of elliptic curve algorithms and parameters with hundreds of bits requires specific design and implementation strategy. The design architecture must be customized according to security requirement, available resources and parameter choices. In this work we propose the use of composite field to implement finite field multiplication for ECC implementation. We use 299-bit keylength represented in GF((21323 instead of in GF(2299. Composite field multiplier can be implemented using different multiplier for ground-field and for extension field. In this paper, LUT is used for multiplication in the ground-field and classic multiplieris used for the extension field multiplication. A generic architecture for the multiplier is presented. Implementation is done with VHDL with the target device Altera DE2. The work in this paper uses the simplest algorithm to confirm the idea that by dividing field into composite, use different multiplier for base and extension field would give better trade-off for time and area. This work will be the beginning of our more advanced further research that implements composite-field using Mastrovito Hybrid, KOA and LUT.

  10. Projection of curves on B-spline surfaces using quadratic reparameterization

    KAUST Repository

    Yang, Yijun; Zeng, Wei; Zhang, Hui; Yong, Junhai; Paul, Jean Claude

    2010-01-01

    Curves on surfaces play an important role in computer aided geometric design. In this paper, we present a hyperbola approximation method based on the quadratic reparameterization of Bézier surfaces, which generates reasonable low degree curves lying

  11. Next-Generation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Hydrologic Design in Snow-Dominated Environments

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Yan, Hongxiang [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Sun, Ning [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Wigmosta, Mark [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Distinguished Faculty Fellow, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, University of Washington, Seattle Washington United States; Skaggs, Richard [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Hou, Zhangshuan [Energy and Environment Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States; Leung, Ruby [Earth and Biological Sciences Directorate, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory, Richland Washington United States

    2018-02-01

    There is a renewed focus on the design of infrastructure resilient to extreme hydrometeorological events. While precipitation-based intensity-duration-frequency (IDF) curves are commonly used as part of infrastructure design, a large percentage of peak runoff events in snow-dominated regions are caused by snowmelt, particularly during rain-on-snow (ROS) events. In these regions, precipitation-based IDF curves may lead to substantial over-/under-estimation of design basis events and subsequent over-/under-design of infrastructure. To overcome this deficiency, we proposed next-generation IDF (NG-IDF) curves, which characterize the actual water reaching the land surface. We compared NG-IDF curves to standard precipitation-based IDF curves for estimates of extreme events at 376 Snowpack Telemetry (SNOTEL) stations across the western United States that each had at least 30 years of high-quality records. We found standard precipitation-based IDF curves at 45% of the stations were subject to under-design, many with significant under-estimation of 100-year extreme events, for which the precipitation-based IDF curves can underestimate water potentially available for runoff by as much as 125% due to snowmelt and ROS events. The regions with the greatest potential for under-design were in the Pacific Northwest, the Sierra Nevada Mountains, and the Middle and Southern Rockies. We also found the potential for over-design at 20% of the stations, primarily in the Middle Rockies and Arizona mountains. These results demonstrate the need to consider snow processes in the development of IDF curves, and they suggest use of the more robust NG-IDF curves for hydrologic design in snow-dominated environments.

  12. Application of a diffractive element-based sensor for detection of latent fingerprints from a curved smooth surface

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kuivalainen, Kalle; Peiponen, Kai-Erik; Myller, Kari

    2009-01-01

    An optical measurement device, which is a diffractive element-based sensor, is presented for the detection of latent fingerprints on curved objects such as a ballpoint pen. The device provides image and gloss information on the ridges of a fingerprint. The device is expected to have applications in forensic studies. (technical design note)

  13. Learner Characteristic Based Learning Effort Curve Mode: The Core Mechanism on Developing Personalized Adaptive E-Learning Platform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hsu, Pi-Shan

    2012-01-01

    This study aims to develop the core mechanism for realizing the development of personalized adaptive e-learning platform, which is based on the previous learning effort curve research and takes into account the learner characteristics of learning style and self-efficacy. 125 university students from Taiwan are classified into 16 groups according…

  14. Survival chance in papillary thyroid cancer in Hungary: individual survival probability estimation using the Markov method

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Esik, Olga; Tusnady, Gabor; Daubner, Kornel; Nemeth, Gyoergy; Fuezy, Marton; Szentirmay, Zoltan

    1997-01-01

    Purpose: The typically benign, but occasionally rapidly fatal clinical course of papillary thyroid cancer has raised the need for individual survival probability estimation, to tailor the treatment strategy exclusively to a given patient. Materials and methods: A retrospective study was performed on 400 papillary thyroid cancer patients with a median follow-up time of 7.1 years to establish a clinical database for uni- and multivariate analysis of the prognostic factors related to survival (Kaplan-Meier product limit method and Cox regression). For a more precise prognosis estimation, the effect of the most important clinical events were then investigated on the basis of a Markov renewal model. The basic concept of this approach is that each patient has an individual disease course which (besides the initial clinical categories) is affected by special events, e.g. internal covariates (local/regional/distant relapses). On the supposition that these events and the cause-specific death are influenced by the same biological processes, the parameters of transient survival probability characterizing the speed of the course of the disease for each clinical event and their sequence were determined. The individual survival curves for each patient were calculated by using these parameters and the independent significant clinical variables selected from multivariate studies, summation of which resulted in a mean cause-specific survival function valid for the entire group. On the basis of this Markov model, prediction of the cause-specific survival probability is possible for extrastudy cases, if it is supposed that the clinical events occur within new patients in the same manner and with the similar probability as within the study population. Results: The patient's age, a distant metastasis at presentation, the extent of the surgical intervention, the primary tumor size and extent (pT), the external irradiation dosage and the degree of TSH suppression proved to be

  15. Partitioning of excess mortality in population-based cancer patient survival studies using flexible parametric survival models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Eloranta Sandra

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Relative survival is commonly used for studying survival of cancer patients as it captures both the direct and indirect contribution of a cancer diagnosis on mortality by comparing the observed survival of the patients to the expected survival in a comparable cancer-free population. However, existing methods do not allow estimation of the impact of isolated conditions (e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality on the total excess mortality. For this purpose we extend flexible parametric survival models for relative survival, which use restricted cubic splines for the baseline cumulative excess hazard and for any time-dependent effects. Methods In the extended model we partition the excess mortality associated with a diagnosis of cancer through estimating a separate baseline excess hazard function for the outcomes under investigation. This is done by incorporating mutually exclusive background mortality rates, stratified by the underlying causes of death reported in the Swedish population, and by introducing cause of death as a time-dependent effect in the extended model. This approach thereby enables modeling of temporal trends in e.g., excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality simultaneously. Furthermore, we illustrate how the results from the proposed model can be used to derive crude probabilities of death due to the component parts, i.e., probabilities estimated in the presence of competing causes of death. Results The method is illustrated with examples where the total excess mortality experienced by patients diagnosed with breast cancer is partitioned into excess cardiovascular mortality and remaining cancer excess mortality. Conclusions The proposed method can be used to simultaneously study disease patterns and temporal trends for various causes of cancer-consequent deaths. Such information should be of interest for patients and clinicians as one way of improving prognosis after cancer is

  16. Compact TXRF system using doubly curved crystal optics

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Chen, Z.W.

    2000-01-01

    Doubly curved crystal optics can provide large collection solid angle from a small x-ray source but were difficult to be fabricated in the past. The recent innovative doubly curved crystal optic technology provides accurate bending figure of thin crystal and produces high performance doubly curved crystal optics. The high quality doubly curved crystal can increase the intensity of the primary beam significantly for total reflection x-ray fluorescence application based on a low power x-ray source. In this report, toroidal Si(220) crystals are used to focused Cu Kα and Mo Kα x-rays from low power compact x-ray tubes that have maximum power setting at 50 kV and 1 mA. With a slit aperture to control the convergent angle, a fan Cu Kα1 beam with 15 degree x 0.2 degree convergent angles is obtained for TXRF excitation. Similarly, a fan Mo Kα1 beam with 6 degree x 0.1 degree convergent angles is used for high energy excitation. Si wafer based TXRF samples will be prepared and measured using this technique and the experimental data. (author)

  17. Outcomes and long-term survival of coronary artery surgery: The controversial role of opium as risk marker

    Science.gov (United States)

    Najafi, Mahdi; Jahangiry, Leila; Mortazavi, Seyedeh Hamideh; Jalali, Arash; Karimi, Abbasali; Bozorgi, Ali

    2016-01-01

    AIM To study survival in isolated coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) patients and to evaluate the impact of preoperative chronic opium consumption on long-term outcome. METHODS Cohort of 566 isolated CABG patients as Tehran Heart Center cardiac output measurement was conducted. Daily evaluation until discharge as well as 4- and 12-mo and 6.5-year follow-up information for survival status were fulfilled for all patients. Long-term 6.5-year overall and opium-stratified survival, adjusted survival curves based on opium consumption as well as possible predictors of all-cause mortality using multiple cox regression were determined by statistical analysis. RESULTS Six point five-year overall survival was 91.8%; 86.6% in opium consumers and 92.7% in non-opium consumers (P = 0.035). Patients with positive history of opium consumption significantly tended to have lower ejection fraction (EF), higher creatinine level and higher prevalence of myocardial infarction. Multiple predictors of all-cause mortality included age, body mass index, EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. The hazard ratio (HR) of 2.09 for the risk of mortality in opium addicted patients with a borderline P value (P = 0.052) was calculated in this model. Further adjustment with stratification based on smoking and opium addiction reduced the HR to 1.20 (P = 0.355). CONCLUSION Simultaneous impact of smoking as a confounding variable in most of the patients prevents from definitive judgment on the role of opium as an independent contributing factor in worse long-term survival of CABG patients in addition to advanced age, low EF, diabetes mellitus and cerebrovascular accident. Meanwhile, our findings do not confirm any cardio protective role for opium to improve outcome in coronary patients with the history of smoking. Further studies are needed to clarify pure effect of opium and warrant the aforementioned findings. PMID:27957254

  18. Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Afouxenidis, D; Polymeris, G S; Tsirliganis, N C; Kitis, G

    2012-05-01

    This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the GLOw Curve ANalysis INtercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters.

  19. Computerised curve deconvolution of TL/OSL curves using a popular spreadsheet program

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Afouxenidis, D.; Polymeris, G. S.; Tsirliganis, N. C.; Kitis, G.

    2012-01-01

    This paper exploits the possibility of using commercial software for thermoluminescence and optically stimulated luminescence curve deconvolution analysis. The widely used software package Microsoft Excel, with the Solver utility has been used to perform deconvolution analysis to both experimental and reference glow curves resulted from the Glow Curve Analysis Intercomparison project. The simple interface of this programme combined with the powerful Solver utility, allows the analysis of complex stimulated luminescence curves into their components and the evaluation of the associated luminescence parameters. (authors)

  20. Multi-q pattern classification of polarization curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fabbri, Ricardo; Bastos, Ivan N.; Neto, Francisco D. Moura; Lopes, Francisco J. P.; Gonçalves, Wesley N.; Bruno, Odemir M.

    2014-02-01

    Several experimental measurements are expressed in the form of one-dimensional profiles, for which there is a scarcity of methodologies able to classify the pertinence of a given result to a specific group. The polarization curves that evaluate the corrosion kinetics of electrodes in corrosive media are applications where the behavior is chiefly analyzed from profiles. Polarization curves are indeed a classic method to determine the global kinetics of metallic electrodes, but the strong nonlinearity from different metals and alloys can overlap and the discrimination becomes a challenging problem. Moreover, even finding a typical curve from replicated tests requires subjective judgment. In this paper, we used the so-called multi-q approach based on the Tsallis statistics in a classification engine to separate the multiple polarization curve profiles of two stainless steels. We collected 48 experimental polarization curves in an aqueous chloride medium of two stainless steel types, with different resistance against localized corrosion. Multi-q pattern analysis was then carried out on a wide potential range, from cathodic up to anodic regions. An excellent classification rate was obtained, at a success rate of 90%, 80%, and 83% for low (cathodic), high (anodic), and both potential ranges, respectively, using only 2% of the original profile data. These results show the potential of the proposed approach towards efficient, robust, systematic and automatic classification of highly nonlinear profile curves.

  1. The Environmental Kuznets Curve. An empirical analysis for OECD countries

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Georgiev, E.

    2008-09-15

    This paper tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for four local (SOx, NOx, CO, VOC) and two global (CO2, GHG) air pollutants. Using a new panel data set of thirty OECD countries, the paper finds that the postulated inverted U-shaped relationship between income and pollution does not hold for all gases. A meaningful Environmental Kuznets Curve exists only for CO, VOC and NOx, where for CO2 the curve is monotonically increasing. For GHG there is indication of an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and pollution, but still most countries are on the increasing path of the curve and hence the future development of the curve is uncertain. For SOx it was found that emissions follow an U-shaped curve. Based on the empirical results, the paper concludes that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not hold for all gases, it is rather an empirical artefact than a regularity.

  2. The Environmental Kuznets Curve. An empirical analysis for OECD countries

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Georgiev, E.

    2008-09-01

    This paper tests the Environmental Kuznets Curve hypothesis for four local (SOx, NOx, CO, VOC) and two global (CO2, GHG) air pollutants. Using a new panel data set of thirty OECD countries, the paper finds that the postulated inverted U-shaped relationship between income and pollution does not hold for all gases. A meaningful Environmental Kuznets Curve exists only for CO, VOC and NOx, where for CO2 the curve is monotonically increasing. For GHG there is indication of an inverted U-shaped relationship between income and pollution, but still most countries are on the increasing path of the curve and hence the future development of the curve is uncertain. For SOx it was found that emissions follow an U-shaped curve. Based on the empirical results, the paper concludes that the Environmental Kuznets Curve does not hold for all gases, it is rather an empirical artefact than a regularity.

  3. Reconstruction of thermally quenched glow curves in quartz

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Subedi, Bhagawan; Polymeris, George S.; Tsirliganis, Nestor C.; Pagonis, Vasilis; Kitis, George

    2012-01-01

    The experimentally measured thermoluminescence (TL) glow curves of quartz samples are influenced by the presence of the thermal quenching effect, which involves a variation of the luminescence efficiency as a function of temperature. The real shape of the thermally unquenched TL glow curves is completely unknown. In the present work an attempt is made to reconstruct these unquenched glow curves from the quenched experimental data, and for two different types of quartz samples. The reconstruction is based on the values of the thermal quenching parameter W (activation energy) and C (a dimensionless constant), which are known from recent experimental work on these two samples. A computerized glow-curve deconvolution (CGCD) analysis was performed twice for both the reconstructed and the experimental TL glow curves. Special attention was paid to check for consistency between the results of these two independent CGCD analyses. The investigation showed that the reconstruction attempt was successful, and it is concluded that the analysis of reconstructed TL glow curves can provide improved values of the kinetic parameters E, s for the glow peaks of quartz. This also leads to a better evaluation of the half-lives of electron trapping levels used for dosimetry and luminescence dating.

  4. Marital status independently predicts testis cancer survival--an analysis of the SEER database.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abern, Michael R; Dude, Annie M; Coogan, Christopher L

    2012-01-01

    Previous reports have shown that married men with malignancies have improved 10-year survival over unmarried men. We sought to investigate the effect of marital status on 10-year survival in a U.S. population-based cohort of men with testis cancer. We examined 30,789 cases of testis cancer reported to the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER 17) database between 1973 and 2005. All staging were converted to the 1997 AJCC TNM system. Patients less than 18 years of age at time of diagnosis were excluded. A subgroup analysis of patients with stages I or II non-seminomatous germ cell tumors (NSGCT) was performed. Univariate analysis using t-tests and χ(2) tests compared characteristics of patients separated by marital status. Multivariate analysis was performed using a Cox proportional hazard model to generate Kaplan-Meier survival curves, with all-cause and cancer-specific mortality as the primary endpoints. 20,245 cases met the inclusion criteria. Married men were more likely to be older (38.9 vs. 31.4 years), Caucasian (94.4% vs. 92.1%), stage I (73.1% vs. 61.4%), and have seminoma as the tumor histology (57.3% vs. 43.4%). On multivariate analysis, married status (HR 0.58, P married status (HR 0.60, P married and unmarried men (44.8% vs. 43.4%, P = 0.33). Marital status is an independent predictor of improved overall and cancer-specific survival in men with testis cancer. In men with stages I or II NSGCT, RPLND is an additional predictor of improved overall survival. Marital status does not appear to influence whether men undergo RPLND. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  5. Survival of parenchymal hepatocytes exposed to 14.3-MeV neutrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jirtle, R.L.; Gould, M.N.; DeLuca, P.M. Jr.; Pearson, D.W.

    1982-01-01

    This report presents the results of the measurement of a dose survival curve and RBE values for rat hepatic cells irradiated in vivo with 14.3 MeV neutrons. The purpose was to determine the RBE for neutrons as a function of dose, and whether hepatocytes exposed to neutrons are as efficient at repairing potentially lethal damage as they are after exposure to low LET radiation

  6. Simple algorithm to estimate mean-field effects from minor differential permeability curves based on the Preisach model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Perevertov, Oleksiy

    2003-01-01

    The classical Preisach model (PM) of magnetic hysteresis requires that any minor differential permeability curve lies under minor curves with larger field amplitude. Measurements of ferromagnetic materials show that very often this is not true. By applying the classical PM formalism to measured minor curves one can discover that it leads to an oval-shaped region on each half of the Preisach plane where the calculations produce negative values in the Preisach function. Introducing an effective field, which differs from the applied one by a mean-field term proportional to the magnetization, usually solves this problem. Complex techniques exist to estimate the minimum necessary proportionality constant (the moving parameter). In this paper we propose a simpler way to estimate the mean-field effects for use in nondestructive testing, which is based on experience from the measurements of industrial steels. A new parameter (parameter of shift) is introduced, which monitors the mean-field effects. The relation between the shift parameter and the moving one was studied for a number of steels. From preliminary experiments no correlation was found between the shift parameter and the classical magnetic ones such as the coercive field, maximum differential permeability and remanent magnetization

  7. Influence of horizontally curved roadway section characteristics on motorcycle-to-barrier crash frequency.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabauer, Douglas J; Li, Xiaolong

    2015-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate motorcycle-to-barrier crash frequency on horizontally curved roadway sections in Washington State using police-reported crash data linked with roadway data and augmented with barrier presence information. Data included 4915 horizontal curved roadway sections with 252 of these sections experiencing 329 motorcycle-to-barrier crashes between 2002 and 2011. Negative binomial regression was used to predict motorcycle-to-barrier crash frequency using horizontal curvature and other roadway characteristics. Based on the model results, the strongest predictor of crash frequency was found to be curve radius. This supports a motorcycle-to-barrier crash countermeasure placement criterion based, at the very least, on horizontal curve radius. With respect to the existing horizontal curve criterion of 820 feet or less, curves meeting this criterion were found to increase motorcycle-to-barrier crash frequency rate by a factor of 10 compared to curves not meeting this criterion. Other statistically significant predictors were curve length, traffic volume and the location of adjacent curves. Assuming curves of identical radius, the model results suggest that longer curves, those with higher traffic volume, and those that have no adjacent curved sections within 300 feet of either curve end would likely be better candidates for a motorcycle-to-barrier crash countermeasure. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  8. Magneto-electro-elastic buckling analysis of nonlocal curved nanobeams

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimi, Farzad; Reza Barati, Mohammad

    2016-09-01

    In this work, a size-dependent curved beam model is developed to take into account the effects of nonlocal stresses on the buckling behavior of curved magneto-electro-elastic FG nanobeams for the first time. The governing differential equations are derived based on the principle of virtual work and Euler-Bernoulli beam theory. The power-law function is employed to describe the spatially graded magneto-electro-elastic properties. By extending the radius of the curved nanobeam to infinity, the results of straight nonlocal FG beams can be rendered. The effects of magnetic potential, electric voltage, opening angle, nonlocal parameter, power-law index and slenderness ratio on buckling loads of curved MEE-FG nanobeams are studied.

  9. Dealing with Non-stationarity in Intensity-Frequency-Duration Curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rengaraju, S.; Rajendran, V.; C T, D.

    2017-12-01

    Extremes like flood and drought are becoming frequent and more vulnerable in recent times, generally attributed to the recent revelation of climate change. One of the main concerns is that whether the present infrastructures like dams, storm water drainage networks, etc., which were designed following the so called `stationary' assumption, are capable of withstanding the expected severe extremes. Stationary assumption considers that extremes are not changing with respect to time. However, recent studies proved that climate change has altered the climate extremes both temporally and spatially. Traditionally, the observed non-stationary in the extreme precipitation is incorporated in the extreme value distributions in terms of changing parameters. Nevertheless, this raises a question which parameter needs to be changed, i.e. location or scale or shape, since either one or more of these parameters vary at a given location. Hence, this study aims to detect the changing parameters to reduce the complexity involved in the development of non-stationary IDF curve and to provide the uncertainty bound of estimated return level using Bayesian Differential Evolutionary Monte Carlo (DE-MC) algorithm. Firstly, the extreme precipitation series is extracted using Peak Over Threshold. Then, the time varying parameter(s) is(are) detected for the extracted series using Generalized Additive Models for Location Scale and Shape (GAMLSS). Then, the IDF curve is constructed using Generalized Pareto Distribution incorporating non-stationarity only if the parameter(s) is(are) changing with respect to time, otherwise IDF curve will follow stationary assumption. Finally, the posterior probability intervals of estimated return revel are computed through Bayesian DE-MC approach and the non-stationary based IDF curve is compared with the stationary based IDF curve. The results of this study emphasize that the time varying parameters also change spatially and the IDF curves should incorporate non

  10. Automated curved planar reformation of 3D spine images

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vrtovec, Tomaz; Likar, Bostjan; Pernus, Franjo

    2005-01-01

    Traditional techniques for visualizing anatomical structures are based on planar cross-sections from volume images, such as images obtained by computed tomography (CT) or magnetic resonance imaging (MRI). However, planar cross-sections taken in the coordinate system of the 3D image often do not provide sufficient or qualitative enough diagnostic information, because planar cross-sections cannot follow curved anatomical structures (e.g. arteries, colon, spine, etc). Therefore, not all of the important details can be shown simultaneously in any planar cross-section. To overcome this problem, reformatted images in the coordinate system of the inspected structure must be created. This operation is usually referred to as curved planar reformation (CPR). In this paper we propose an automated method for CPR of 3D spine images, which is based on the image transformation from the standard image-based to a novel spine-based coordinate system. The axes of the proposed spine-based coordinate system are determined on the curve that represents the vertebral column, and the rotation of the vertebrae around the spine curve, both of which are described by polynomial models. The optimal polynomial parameters are obtained in an image analysis based optimization framework. The proposed method was qualitatively and quantitatively evaluated on five CT spine images. The method performed well on both normal and pathological cases and was consistent with manually obtained ground truth data. The proposed spine-based CPR benefits from reduced structural complexity in favour of improved feature perception of the spine. The reformatted images are diagnostically valuable and enable easier navigation, manipulation and orientation in 3D space. Moreover, reformatted images may prove useful for segmentation and other image analysis tasks

  11. Non-sky-averaged sensitivity curves for space-based gravitational-wave observatories

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Vallisneri, Michele; Galley, Chad R

    2012-01-01

    The signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) is used in gravitational-wave observations as the basic figure of merit for detection confidence and, together with the Fisher matrix, for the amount of physical information that can be extracted from a detected signal. SNRs are usually computed from a sensitivity curve, which describes the gravitational-wave amplitude needed by a monochromatic source of given frequency to achieve a threshold SNR. Although the term 'sensitivity' is used loosely to refer to the detector's noise spectral density, the two quantities are not the same: the sensitivity includes also the frequency- and orientation-dependent response of the detector to gravitational waves and takes into account the duration of observation. For interferometric space-based detectors similar to LISA, which are sensitive to long-lived signals and have constantly changing position and orientation, exact SNRs need to be computed on a source-by-source basis. For convenience, most authors prefer to work with sky-averaged sensitivities, accepting inaccurate SNRs for individual sources and giving up control over the statistical distribution of SNRs for source populations. In this paper, we describe a straightforward end-to-end recipe to compute the non-sky-averaged sensitivity of interferometric space-based detectors of any geometry. This recipe includes the effects of spacecraft motion and of seasonal variations in the partially subtracted confusion foreground from Galactic binaries, and it can be used to generate a sampling distribution of sensitivities for a given source population. In effect, we derive error bars for the sky-averaged sensitivity curve, which provide a stringent statistical interpretation for previously unqualified statements about sky-averaged SNRs. As a worked-out example, we consider isotropic and Galactic-disk populations of monochromatic sources, as observed with the 'classic LISA' configuration. We confirm that the (standard) inverse-rms average sensitivity

  12. Statistical re-evaluation of the ASME K{sub IC} and K{sub IR} fracture toughness reference curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Wallin, K.; Rintamaa, R. [Valtion Teknillinen Tutkimuskeskus, Espoo (Finland)

    1998-11-01

    Historically the ASME reference curves have been treated as representing absolute deterministic lower bound curves of fracture toughness. In reality, this is not the case. They represent only deterministic lower bound curves to a specific set of data, which represent a certain probability range. A recently developed statistical lower bound estimation method called the `Master curve`, has been proposed as a candidate for a new lower bound reference curve concept. From a regulatory point of view, the Master curve is somewhat problematic in that it does not claim to be an absolute deterministic lower bound, but corresponds to a specific theoretical failure probability that can be chosen freely based on application. In order to be able to substitute the old ASME reference curves with lower bound curves based on the master curve concept, the inherent statistical nature (and confidence level) of the ASME reference curves must be revealed. In order to estimate the true inherent level of safety, represented by the reference curves, the original data base was re-evaluated with statistical methods and compared to an analysis based on the master curve concept. The analysis reveals that the 5% lower bound Master curve has the same inherent degree of safety as originally intended for the K{sub IC}-reference curve. Similarly, the 1% lower bound Master curve corresponds to the K{sub IR}-reference curve. (orig.)

  13. Rat mammary-cell survival following irradiation with 14.3-MeV neutrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahler, P.A.; Gould, M.N.; DeLuca, P.M. Jr.; Pearson, D.W.; Clifton, K.H.

    1982-01-01

    The survival of rat mammary gland cells irradiated in situ with either single or split doses of 14.3-MeV neutrons was determined by an in vivo transplantation assay. The single-dose data are best fit to the multitarget single-hit model by the parameters D 0 = 97 cGy and n = 0.6 while the split-dose data are best fit by the parameters D 0 = 100 cGy and n = 1.2. Analysis of the combined data sets suggests that the two survival curves are not identical. Comparison of these data with previously published results following irradiation with 250-kVp x-rays is reported

  14. Rat mammary cell survival following irradiation with 14.3-MeV neutrons

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mahler, P.A.; Gould, M.N.; DeLuca, P.M. Jr.; Pearson, D.W.; Clifton, K.H.

    1982-01-01

    The survival of rat mammary gland cells irradiated in situ with either single or split doses of 14.3-MeV neutrons was determined by an in vivo transplantation assay. The single-dose data are best fit to the multitarget single-hit model by the parameters D/sub o/ = 97 cGy and n = 0.6 while the split-dose data are best fit by the parameters D/sub o/ = 100 cGy and n = 1.2.Analysis of the combined data sets suggests that the two survival curves are not identical. Comparison of these data with previously published results following irradiation with 250-kVp X rays is reported

  15. Approximation by planar elastic curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Brander, David; Gravesen, Jens; Nørbjerg, Toke Bjerge

    2016-01-01

    We give an algorithm for approximating a given plane curve segment by a planar elastic curve. The method depends on an analytic representation of the space of elastic curve segments, together with a geometric method for obtaining a good initial guess for the approximating curve. A gradient......-driven optimization is then used to find the approximating elastic curve....

  16. Decline curve based models for predicting natural gas well performance

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Arash Kamari

    2017-06-01

    Full Text Available The productivity of a gas well declines over its production life as cannot cover economic policies. To overcome such problems, the production performance of gas wells should be predicted by applying reliable methods to analyse the decline trend. Therefore, reliable models are developed in this study on the basis of powerful artificial intelligence techniques viz. the artificial neural network (ANN modelling strategy, least square support vector machine (LSSVM approach, adaptive neuro-fuzzy inference system (ANFIS, and decision tree (DT method for the prediction of cumulative gas production as well as initial decline rate multiplied by time as a function of the Arps' decline curve exponent and ratio of initial gas flow rate over total gas flow rate. It was concluded that the results obtained based on the models developed in current study are in satisfactory agreement with the actual gas well production data. Furthermore, the results of comparative study performed demonstrates that the LSSVM strategy is superior to the other models investigated for the prediction of both cumulative gas production, and initial decline rate multiplied by time.

  17. Multiphoton absorption coefficients in solids: an universal curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Brandi, H.S.; Araujo, C.B. de

    1983-04-01

    An universal curve for the frequency dependence of the multiphoton absorption coefficient is proposed based on a 'non-perturbative' approach. Specific applications have been made to obtain two, three, four and five photons absorption coefficient in different materials. Properly scaling of the two photon absorption coefficient and the use of the universal curve yields results for the higher order absorption coefficients in good agreement with the experimental data. (Author) [pt

  18. Respiratory activity as a determinant of radiation survival response

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruce, A K; Berner, J D [State Univ. of New York, Buffalo (USA). Dept. of Biology

    1976-09-01

    Respiration is depressed in irradiated bacteria reaching a minimum level in most strains at 1-3 h after exposure when incubated in growth medium. Since a delay in response is observed, direct action on respiratory enzymes is unlikely. The dosage response of respiration varies widely in the strains studied. All strains exhibit two-component dosage-response curves. The facts suggest that respiration is a major factor in influencing cell survival and may be the principal mechanism through which chemical agents modify radiation response.

  19. Bragg Curve Spectroscopy

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Gruhn, C.R.

    1981-05-01

    An alternative utilization is presented for the gaseous ionization chamber in the detection of energetic heavy ions, which is called Bragg Curve Spectroscopy (BCS). Conceptually, BCS involves using the maximum data available from the Bragg curve of the stopping heavy ion (HI) for purposes of identifying the particle and measuring its energy. A detector has been designed that measures the Bragg curve with high precision. From the Bragg curve the range from the length of the track, the total energy from the integral of the specific ionization over the track, the dE/dx from the specific ionization at the beginning of the track, and the Bragg peak from the maximum of the specific ionization of the HI are determined. This last signal measures the atomic number, Z, of the HI unambiguously

  20. Energy and GHG abatement cost curves

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Alvarenga, Rafael [BHP Billiton Base Metals (Australia)

    2010-07-01

    Global warming due to various reasons but especially to emission of green house gases (GHGs) has become a cause for serious concern. This paper discusses the steps taken by BHP Billiton to reduce energy consumption and GHG emissions using cost curves. According to forecasts, global warming is expected to impact Chile badly and the rise in temperature could be between 1 and more than 5 degrees Celsius. Mining in Chile consumes a lot of energy, particularly electricity. Total energy and electricity consumption in 2007 was 13 and 36 % respectively. BHP base metals developed a set of abatement cost curves for energy and GHG in Chile and these are shown in figures. The methodology for the curves consisted of consultant visits to each mine operation. The study also includes mass energy balance and feasibility maps. The paper concludes that it is important to evaluate the potential for reducing emissions and energy and their associated costs.

  1. Prognostic factors and survival of colorectal cancer in Kurdistan province, Iran: A population-based study (2009-2014).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rasouli, Mohammad Aziz; Moradi, Ghobad; Roshani, Daem; Nikkhoo, Bahram; Ghaderi, Ebrahim; Ghaytasi, Bahman

    2017-02-01

    Colorectal cancer (CRC) survival varies at individual and geographically level. This population-based study aimed to evaluating various factors affecting the survival rate of CRC patients in Kurdistan province.In a retrospective cohort study, patients diagnosed as CRC were collected through a population-based study from March 1, 2009 to 2014. The data were collected from Kurdistan's Cancer Registry database. Additional information and missing data were collected reference to patients' homes, medical records, and pathology reports. The CRC survival was calculated from the date of diagnosis to the date of cancer-specific death or the end of follow-up (cutoff date: October 2015). Kaplan-Meier method and log-rank test were used for the univariate analysis of survival in various subgroups. The proportional-hazard model Cox was also used in order to consider the effects of different factors on survival including age at diagnosis, place of residence, marital status, occupation, level of education, smoking, economic status, comorbidity, tumor stage, and tumor grade.A total number of 335 patients affected by CRC were assessed and the results showed that 1- and 5-year survival rate were 87% and 33%, respectively. According to the results of Cox's multivariate analysis, the following factors were significantly related to CRC survival: age at diagnosis (≥65 years old) (HR 2.08, 95% CI: 1.17-3.71), single patients (HR 1.62, 95% CI: 1.10-2.40), job (worker) (HR 2.09, 95% CI: 1.22-3.58), educational level: diploma or below (HR 0.61, 95% CI: 0.39-0.92), wealthy economic status (HR 0.51, 95% CI: 0.31-0.82), tumor grade in poorly differentiated (HR 2.25, 95% CI: 1.37-3.69), and undifferentiated/anaplastic grade (HR 2.90, 95% CI: 1.67-4.98).We found that factors such as low education, inappropriate socioeconomic status, and high tumor grade at the time of disease diagnosis were effective in the poor survival of CRC patients in Kurdistan province; this, which need more attention.

  2. Trends in Testicular Cancer Survival: A Large Population-based Analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sui, Wilson; Morrow, David C; Bermejo, Carlos E; Hellenthal, Nicholas J

    2015-06-01

    To determine whether discrepancies in testicular cancer outcomes between Caucasians and non-Caucasians are changing over time. Although testicular cancer is more common in Caucasians, studies have shown that other races have worse outcomes. Using the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry, we identified 29,803 patients diagnosed with histologically confirmed testicular cancer between 1983 and 2011. Of these, 12,650 patients (42%) had 10-year follow-up data. We stratified the patients by age group, stage, race, and year of diagnosis and assessed 10-year overall and cancer-specific survival in each cohort. Cox proportional hazard models were used to determine the relative contributions of each stratum to cancer-specific survival. Predicted overall 10-year survival of Caucasian patients with testicular cancer increased slightly from 88% to 89% over the period studied, whereas predicted cancer-specific 10-year survival dropped slightly from 94% to 93%. In contrast, non-Caucasian men demonstrated larger changes in 10-year overall (84%-86%) and cancer-specific (88%-91%) survival. On univariate analysis, race was significantly associated with testicular cancer death, with non-Caucasian men being 1.69 times more likely to die of testicular cancer than Caucasians (hazard ratio, 1.33-2.16; 95% confidence interval, testicular cancer. These data show a convergence in cancer-specific survival between racial groups over time, suggesting that diagnostic and treatment discrepancies may be improving for non-Caucasians. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  3. Injury risk curves for the WorldSID 50th male dummy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Petitjean, Audrey; Trosseille, Xavier; Petit, Philippe; Irwin, Annette; Hassan, Joe; Praxl, Norbert

    2009-11-01

    logistic regression, the survival analysis and the Consistent Threshold Estimate. The paper presents the methods used to check and process the data, select the PMHS tests, and construct the injury risk curves. The PMHS dataset as well as the injury risk curves are provided.

  4. Survival Patterns Among Newcomers To Franchising

    OpenAIRE

    Timothy Bates

    1997-01-01

    This study analyzes survival patterns among franchisee firms and establishments that began operations in 1986 and 1987. Differing methodologies and data bases are utilized to demonstrate that 1) franchises have higher survival rates than independents, and 2) franchises have lower survival rates than independent business formations. Analyses of corporate establishment data generate high franchisee survival rates relative to independents, while analyses of young firm data generate the opposite ...

  5. Learning Curve? Which One?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Paulo Prochno

    2004-07-01

    Full Text Available Learning curves have been studied for a long time. These studies provided strong support to the hypothesis that, as organizations produce more of a product, unit costs of production decrease at a decreasing rate (see Argote, 1999 for a comprehensive review of learning curve studies. But the organizational mechanisms that lead to these results are still underexplored. We know some drivers of learning curves (ADLER; CLARK, 1991; LAPRE et al., 2000, but we still lack a more detailed view of the organizational processes behind those curves. Through an ethnographic study, I bring a comprehensive account of the first year of operations of a new automotive plant, describing what was taking place on in the assembly area during the most relevant shifts of the learning curve. The emphasis is then on how learning occurs in that setting. My analysis suggests that the overall learning curve is in fact the result of an integration process that puts together several individual ongoing learning curves in different areas throughout the organization. In the end, I propose a model to understand the evolution of these learning processes and their supporting organizational mechanisms.

  6. SNRFCB: sub-network based random forest classifier for predicting chemotherapy benefit on survival for cancer treatment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Mingguang; He, Jianmin

    2016-04-01

    Adjuvant chemotherapy (CTX) should be individualized to provide potential survival benefit and avoid potential harm to cancer patients. Our goal was to establish a computational approach for making personalized estimates of the survival benefit from adjuvant CTX. We developed Sub-Network based Random Forest classifier for predicting Chemotherapy Benefit (SNRFCB) based gene expression datasets of lung cancer. The SNRFCB approach was then validated in independent test cohorts for identifying chemotherapy responder cohorts and chemotherapy non-responder cohorts. SNRFCB involved the pre-selection of gene sub-network signatures based on the mutations and on protein-protein interaction data as well as the application of the random forest algorithm to gene expression datasets. Adjuvant CTX was significantly associated with the prolonged overall survival of lung cancer patients in the chemotherapy responder group (P = 0.008), but it was not beneficial to patients in the chemotherapy non-responder group (P = 0.657). Adjuvant CTX was significantly associated with the prolonged overall survival of lung cancer squamous cell carcinoma (SQCC) subtype patients in the chemotherapy responder cohorts (P = 0.024), but it was not beneficial to patients in the chemotherapy non-responder cohorts (P = 0.383). SNRFCB improved prediction performance as compared to the machine learning method, support vector machine (SVM). To test the general applicability of the predictive model, we further applied the SNRFCB approach to human breast cancer datasets and also observed superior performance. SNRFCB could provide recurrent probability for individual patients and identify which patients may benefit from adjuvant CTX in clinical trials.

  7. Optimal algorithm for automatic detection of microaneurysms based on receiver operating characteristic curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Lili; Luo, Shuqian

    2010-11-01

    Microaneurysms (MAs) are the first manifestations of the diabetic retinopathy (DR) as well as an indicator for its progression. Their automatic detection plays a key role for both mass screening and monitoring and is therefore in the core of any system for computer-assisted diagnosis of DR. The algorithm basically comprises the following stages: candidate detection aiming at extracting the patterns possibly corresponding to MAs based on mathematical morphological black top hat, feature extraction to characterize these candidates, and classification based on support vector machine (SVM), to validate MAs. Feature vector and kernel function of SVM selection is very important to the algorithm. We use the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve to evaluate the distinguishing performance of different feature vectors and different kernel functions of SVM. The ROC analysis indicates the quadratic polynomial SVM with a combination of features as the input shows the best discriminating performance.

  8. Contractibility of curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Janusz Charatonik

    1991-11-01

    Full Text Available Results concerning contractibility of curves (equivalently: of dendroids are collected and discussed in the paper. Interrelations tetween various conditions which are either sufficient or necessary for a curve to be contractible are studied.

  9. Roc curves for continuous data

    CERN Document Server

    Krzanowski, Wojtek J

    2009-01-01

    Since ROC curves have become ubiquitous in many application areas, the various advances have been scattered across disparate articles and texts. ROC Curves for Continuous Data is the first book solely devoted to the subject, bringing together all the relevant material to provide a clear understanding of how to analyze ROC curves.The fundamental theory of ROC curvesThe book first discusses the relationship between the ROC curve and numerous performance measures and then extends the theory into practice by describing how ROC curves are estimated. Further building on the theory, the authors prese

  10. Survival rate in nasopharyngeal carcinoma improved by high caseload volume: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ching-Chih; Hung, Shih-Kai; Huang, Tze-Ta; Lee, Moon-Sing; Su, Yu-Chieh; Chou, Pesus; Hsiao, Shih-Hsuan; Chiou, Wen-Yen; Lin, Hon-Yi; Chien, Sou-Hsin

    2011-01-01

    Positive correlation between caseload and outcome has previously been validated for several procedures and cancer treatments. However, there is no information linking caseload and outcome of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treatment. We used nationwide population-based data to examine the association between physician case volume and survival rates of patients with NPC. Between 1998 and 2000, a total of 1225 patients were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Survival analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model, and propensity score were used to assess the relationship between 10-year survival rates and physician caseloads. As the caseload of individual physicians increased, unadjusted 10-year survival rates increased (p < 0.001). Using a Cox proportional hazard model, patients with NPC treated by high-volume physicians (caseload ≥ 35) had better survival rates (p = 0.001) after adjusting for comorbidities, hospital, and treatment modality. When analyzed by propensity score, the adjusted 10-year survival rate differed significantly between patients treated by high-volume physicians and patients treated by low/medium-volume physicians (75% vs. 61%; p < 0.001). Our data confirm a positive volume-outcome relationship for NPC. After adjusting for differences in the case mix, our analysis found treatment of NPC by high-volume physicians improved 10-year survival rate

  11. Prognostic and survival analysis of 837 Chinese colorectal cancer patients.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yuan, Ying; Li, Mo-Dan; Hu, Han-Guang; Dong, Cai-Xia; Chen, Jia-Qi; Li, Xiao-Fen; Li, Jing-Jing; Shen, Hong

    2013-05-07

    To develop a prognostic model to predict survival of patients with colorectal cancer (CRC). Survival data of 837 CRC patients undergoing surgery between 1996 and 2006 were collected and analyzed by univariate analysis and Cox proportional hazard regression model to reveal the prognostic factors for CRC. All data were recorded using a standard data form and analyzed using SPSS version 18.0 (SPSS, Chicago, IL, United States). Survival curves were calculated by the Kaplan-Meier method. The log rank test was used to assess differences in survival. Univariate hazard ratios and significant and independent predictors of disease-specific survival and were identified by Cox proportional hazard analysis. The stepwise procedure was set to a threshold of 0.05. Statistical significance was defined as P analysis suggested age, preoperative obstruction, serum carcinoembryonic antigen level at diagnosis, status of resection, tumor size, histological grade, pathological type, lymphovascular invasion, invasion of adjacent organs, and tumor node metastasis (TNM) staging were positive prognostic factors (P analysis showed a significant statistical difference in 3-year survival among these groups: LNR1, 73%; LNR2, 55%; and LNR3, 42% (P analysis results showed that histological grade, depth of bowel wall invasion, and number of metastatic lymph nodes were the most important prognostic factors for CRC if we did not consider the interaction of the TNM staging system (P < 0.05). When the TNM staging was taken into account, histological grade lost its statistical significance, while the specific TNM staging system showed a statistically significant difference (P < 0.0001). The overall survival of CRC patients has improved between 1996 and 2006. LNR is a powerful factor for estimating the survival of stage III CRC patients.

  12. W-curve alignments for HIV-1 genomic comparisons.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Douglas J Cork

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The W-curve was originally developed as a graphical visualization technique for viewing DNA and RNA sequences. Its ability to render features of DNA also makes it suitable for computational studies. Its main advantage in this area is utilizing a single-pass algorithm for comparing the sequences. Avoiding recursion during sequence alignments offers advantages for speed and in-process resources. The graphical technique also allows for multiple models of comparison to be used depending on the nucleotide patterns embedded in similar whole genomic sequences. The W-curve approach allows us to compare large numbers of samples quickly.We are currently tuning the algorithm to accommodate quirks specific to HIV-1 genomic sequences so that it can be used to aid in diagnostic and vaccine efforts. Tracking the molecular evolution of the virus has been greatly hampered by gap associated problems predominantly embedded within the envelope gene of the virus. Gaps and hypermutation of the virus slow conventional string based alignments of the whole genome. This paper describes the W-curve algorithm itself, and how we have adapted it for comparison of similar HIV-1 genomes. A treebuilding method is developed with the W-curve that utilizes a novel Cylindrical Coordinate distance method and gap analysis method. HIV-1 C2-V5 env sequence regions from a Mother/Infant cohort study are used in the comparison.The output distance matrix and neighbor results produced by the W-curve are functionally equivalent to those from Clustal for C2-V5 sequences in the mother/infant pairs infected with CRF01_AE.Significant potential exists for utilizing this method in place of conventional string based alignment of HIV-1 genomes, such as Clustal X. With W-curve heuristic alignment, it may be possible to obtain clinically useful results in a short time-short enough to affect clinical choices for acute treatment. A description of the W-curve generation process, including a comparison

  13. W-curve alignments for HIV-1 genomic comparisons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cork, Douglas J; Lembark, Steven; Tovanabutra, Sodsai; Robb, Merlin L; Kim, Jerome H

    2010-06-01

    The W-curve was originally developed as a graphical visualization technique for viewing DNA and RNA sequences. Its ability to render features of DNA also makes it suitable for computational studies. Its main advantage in this area is utilizing a single-pass algorithm for comparing the sequences. Avoiding recursion during sequence alignments offers advantages for speed and in-process resources. The graphical technique also allows for multiple models of comparison to be used depending on the nucleotide patterns embedded in similar whole genomic sequences. The W-curve approach allows us to compare large numbers of samples quickly. We are currently tuning the algorithm to accommodate quirks specific to HIV-1 genomic sequences so that it can be used to aid in diagnostic and vaccine efforts. Tracking the molecular evolution of the virus has been greatly hampered by gap associated problems predominantly embedded within the envelope gene of the virus. Gaps and hypermutation of the virus slow conventional string based alignments of the whole genome. This paper describes the W-curve algorithm itself, and how we have adapted it for comparison of similar HIV-1 genomes. A treebuilding method is developed with the W-curve that utilizes a novel Cylindrical Coordinate distance method and gap analysis method. HIV-1 C2-V5 env sequence regions from a Mother/Infant cohort study are used in the comparison. The output distance matrix and neighbor results produced by the W-curve are functionally equivalent to those from Clustal for C2-V5 sequences in the mother/infant pairs infected with CRF01_AE. Significant potential exists for utilizing this method in place of conventional string based alignment of HIV-1 genomes, such as Clustal X. With W-curve heuristic alignment, it may be possible to obtain clinically useful results in a short time-short enough to affect clinical choices for acute treatment. A description of the W-curve generation process, including a comparison technique of

  14. Injury risk curves for the skeletal knee-thigh-hip complex for knee-impact loading.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rupp, Jonathan D; Flannagan, Carol A C; Kuppa, Shashi M

    2010-01-01

    Injury risk curves for the skeletal knee-thigh-hip (KTH) relate peak force applied to the anterior aspect of the flexed knee, the primary source of KTH injury in frontal motor-vehicle crashes, to the probability of skeletal KTH injury. Previous KTH injury risk curves have been developed from analyses of peak knee-impact force data from studies where knees of whole cadavers were impacted. However, these risk curves either neglect the effects of occupant gender, stature, and mass on KTH fracture force, or account for them using scaling factors derived from dimensional analysis without empirical support. A large amount of experimental data on the knee-impact forces associated with KTH fracture are now available, making it possible to estimate the effects of subject characteristics on skeletal KTH injury risk by statistically analyzing empirical data. Eleven studies were identified in the biomechanical literature in which the flexed knees of whole cadavers were impacted. From these, peak knee-impact force data and the associated subject characteristics were reanalyzed using survival analysis with a lognormal distribution. Results of this analysis indicate that the relationship between peak knee-impact force and the probability of KTH fracture is a function of age, total body mass, and whether the surface that loads the knee is rigid. Comparisons between injury risk curves for the midsize adult male and small adult female crash test dummies defined in previous studies and new risk curves for these sizes of occupants developed in this study suggest that previous injury risk curves generally overestimate the likelihood of KTH fracture at a given peak knee-impact force. Future work should focus on defining the relationships between impact force at the human knee and peak axial compressive forces measured by load cells in the crash test dummy KTH complex so that these new risk curves can be used with ATDs.

  15. Atlas of stress-strain curves

    CERN Document Server

    2002-01-01

    The Atlas of Stress-Strain Curves, Second Edition is substantially bigger in page dimensions, number of pages, and total number of curves than the previous edition. It contains over 1,400 curves, almost three times as many as in the 1987 edition. The curves are normalized in appearance to aid making comparisons among materials. All diagrams include metric (SI) units, and many also include U.S. customary units. All curves are captioned in a consistent format with valuable information including (as available) standard designation, the primary source of the curve, mechanical properties (including hardening exponent and strength coefficient), condition of sample, strain rate, test temperature, and alloy composition. Curve types include monotonic and cyclic stress-strain, isochronous stress-strain, and tangent modulus. Curves are logically arranged and indexed for fast retrieval of information. The book also includes an introduction that provides background information on methods of stress-strain determination, on...

  16. Estimated damage from the Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami: A model comparisons using fragility curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wiebe, D. M.; Cox, D. T.; Chen, Y.; Weber, B. A.; Chen, Y.

    2012-12-01

    Building damage from a hypothetical Cascadia Subduction Zone tsunami was estimated using two methods and applied at the community scale. The first method applies proposed guidelines for a new ASCE 7 standard to calculate the flow depth, flow velocity, and momentum flux from a known runup limit and estimate of the total tsunami energy at the shoreline. This procedure is based on a potential energy budget, uses the energy grade line, and accounts for frictional losses. The second method utilized numerical model results from previous studies to determine maximum flow depth, velocity, and momentum flux throughout the inundation zone. The towns of Seaside and Canon Beach, Oregon, were selected for analysis due to the availability of existing data from previously published works. Fragility curves, based on the hydrodynamic features of the tsunami flow (inundation depth, flow velocity, and momentum flux) and proposed design standards from ASCE 7 were used to estimate the probability of damage to structures located within the inundations zone. The analysis proceeded at the parcel level, using tax-lot data to identify construction type (wood, steel, and reinforced-concrete) and age, which was used as a performance measure when applying the fragility curves and design standards. The overall probability of damage to civil buildings was integrated for comparison between the two methods, and also analyzed spatially for damage patterns, which could be controlled by local bathymetric features. The two methods were compared to assess the sensitivity of the results to the uncertainty in the input hydrodynamic conditions and fragility curves, and the potential advantages of each method discussed. On-going work includes coupling the results of building damage and vulnerability to an economic input output model. This model assesses trade between business sectors located inside and outside the induction zone, and is used to measure the impact to the regional economy. Results highlight

  17. Survival rate in nasopharyngeal carcinoma improved by high caseload volume: a nationwide population-based study in Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chou Pesus

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available Abstract Background Positive correlation between caseload and outcome has previously been validated for several procedures and cancer treatments. However, there is no information linking caseload and outcome of nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC treatment. We used nationwide population-based data to examine the association between physician case volume and survival rates of patients with NPC. Methods Between 1998 and 2000, a total of 1225 patients were identified from the Taiwan National Health Insurance Research Database. Survival analysis, the Cox proportional hazards model, and propensity score were used to assess the relationship between 10-year survival rates and physician caseloads. Results As the caseload of individual physicians increased, unadjusted 10-year survival rates increased (p p = 0.001 after adjusting for comorbidities, hospital, and treatment modality. When analyzed by propensity score, the adjusted 10-year survival rate differed significantly between patients treated by high-volume physicians and patients treated by low/medium-volume physicians (75% vs. 61%; p Conclusions Our data confirm a positive volume-outcome relationship for NPC. After adjusting for differences in the case mix, our analysis found treatment of NPC by high-volume physicians improved 10-year survival rate.

  18. Tornado-Shaped Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Martínez, Sol Sáez; de la Rosa, Félix Martínez; Rojas, Sergio

    2017-01-01

    In Advanced Calculus, our students wonder if it is possible to graphically represent a tornado by means of a three-dimensional curve. In this paper, we show it is possible by providing the parametric equations of such tornado-shaped curves.

  19. The influence of printing parameters on cell survival rate and printability in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Yu; Li, Yang; Mao, Shuangshuang; Sun, Wei; Yao, Rui

    2015-11-02

    Three-dimensional (3D) cell printing technology has provided a versatile methodology to fabricate cell-laden tissue-like constructs and in vitro tissue/pathological models for tissue engineering, drug testing and screening applications. However, it still remains a challenge to print bioinks with high viscoelasticity to achieve long-term stable structure and maintain high cell survival rate after printing at the same time. In this study, we systematically investigated the influence of 3D cell printing parameters, i.e. composition and concentration of bioink, holding temperature and holding time, on the printability and cell survival rate in microextrusion-based 3D cell printing technology. Rheological measurements were utilized to characterize the viscoelasticity of gelatin-based bioinks. Results demonstrated that the bioink viscoelasticity was increased when increasing the bioink concentration, increasing holding time and decreasing holding temperature below gelation temperature. The decline of cell survival rate after 3D cell printing process was observed when increasing the viscoelasticity of the gelatin-based bioinks. However, different process parameter combinations would result in the similar rheological characteristics and thus showed similar cell survival rate after 3D bioprinting process. On the other hand, bioink viscoelasticity should also reach a certain point to ensure good printability and shape fidelity. At last, we proposed a protocol for 3D bioprinting of temperature-sensitive gelatin-based hydrogel bioinks with both high cell survival rate and good printability. This research would be useful for biofabrication researchers to adjust the 3D bioprinting process parameters quickly and as a referable template for designing new bioinks.

  20. Disparities in survival after Hodgkin lymphoma: a population-based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Keegan, Theresa H.M.; Clarke, Christina A.; Chang, Ellen T.; Shema, Sarah J.; Glaser, Sally L.

    2009-01-01

    Survival after Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) is generally favorable, but may vary by patient demographic characteristics. The authors examined HL survival according to race/ethnicity and neighborhood socioeconomic status (SES), determined from residential census block group at diagnosis. For 12,492 classical HL patients ≥15 years diagnosed in California during 1988-2006 and followed through 2007, we determined risk of overall and HL-specific death using Cox proportional hazards regression; analyses were stratified by age and Ann Arbor stage. Irrespective of disease stage, patients with lower neighborhood SES had worse overall and HL-specific survival than patients with higher SES. Patients with the lowest quintile of neighborhood SES had a 64% (patients aged 15-44 years) and 36% (≥45 years) increased risk of HL-death compared to patients with the highest quintile of SES; SES results were similar for overall survival. Even after adjustment for neighborhood SES, blacks and Hispanics had increased risks of HL-death 74% and 43% (15-44 years) and 40% and 17% (≥45 years), respectively, higher than white patients. The racial/ethnic differences in survival were evident for all stages of disease. These data provide evidence for substantial, and probably remediable, racial/ethnic and neighborhood SES disparities in HL outcomes. PMID:19557531

  1. tgcd: An R package for analyzing thermoluminescence glow curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jun Peng

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available Thermoluminescence (TL glow curves are widely used in dosimetric studies. Many commercial and free-distributed programs are used to deconvolute TL glow curves. This study introduces an open-source R package tgcd to conduct TL glow curve analysis, such as kinetic parameter estimation, glow peak simulation, and peak shape analysis. TL glow curves can be deconvoluted according to the general-order empirical expression or the semi-analytical expression derived from the one trap-one recombination center (OTOR model based on the Lambert W function by using a modified Levenberg–Marquardt algorithm from which any of the parameters can be constrained or fixed. The package provides an interactive environment to initialize parameters and offers an automated “trial-and-error” protocol to obtain optimal fit results. First-order, second-order, and general-order glow peaks (curves are simulated according to a number of simple kinetic models. The package was developed using a combination of Fortran and R programming languages to improve efficiency and flexibility.

  2. Survival and DNA repair in ultraviolet-irradiated haploid and diploid cultured frog cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Freed, J.J.; Hoess, R.H.; Angelosanto, F.A.; Massey, H.C. Jr.

    1979-01-01

    Survival and repair of DNA following ultraviolet (254-nm) radiation have been investigated in ICR 2A, a cultured cell line from haploid embryos of the grassfrog, Rana pipiens. Survival curves from cells recovering in the dark gave mean lethal dose value (D 0 ) in the range 1.5-1.7 Jm -2 for both haploid and diploid cell stocks. The only significant difference observed between haploids and diploids was in the extent of the shoulder at low fluence (Dsub(q)), the value for exponentially multiplying diploid cells (3.0 Jm -2 ) being higher than that found for haploids (1.2 Jm -2 ). Irradiation of cultures reversibly blocked in the G1 phase of the cell cycle gave survival-curve coefficients indistinguishable between haploids and diploids. Post-irradiation exposure to visible light restored colony-forming capacity and removed chromatographically estimated pyrimidine dimers from DNA at the same rates. After fluences killing 90% of the cells, complete restoration of survival was obtained after 60-min exposure to 500 foot-candles, indicating that in this range lethality is entirely photoreversible and therefore attributable to pyrimidine dimers in DNA. Dimer removal required illumination following ultraviolet exposure, intact cells and physiological temperature, implying that the photoreversal involved DNA photolyase activity. Excision-repair capacity was slight, since no loss of dimers could be detected chromoatographically during up to 48 h incubation in the dark and since autoradiographically detected 'unscheduled DNA synthesis' was limited to a 2-fold increase saturated at 10 Jm -2 . These properties make ICR 2A frog cells useful to explore how DNA-repair pathways influence mutant yield. (Auth.)

  3. Curve fitting for RHB Islamic Bank annual net profit

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nadarajan, Dineswary; Noor, Noor Fadiya Mohd

    2015-05-01

    The RHB Islamic Bank net profit data are obtained from 2004 to 2012. Curve fitting is done by assuming the data are exact or experimental due to smoothing process. Higher order Lagrange polynomial and cubic spline with curve fitting procedure are constructed using Maple software. Normality test is performed to check the data adequacy. Regression analysis with curve estimation is conducted in SPSS environment. All the eleven models are found to be acceptable at 10% significant level of ANOVA. Residual error and absolute relative true error are calculated and compared. The optimal model based on the minimum average error is proposed.

  4. Shape optimization of self-avoiding curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walker, Shawn W.

    2016-04-01

    This paper presents a softened notion of proximity (or self-avoidance) for curves. We then derive a sensitivity result, based on shape differential calculus, for the proximity. This is combined with a gradient-based optimization approach to compute three-dimensional, parameterized curves that minimize the sum of an elastic (bending) energy and a proximity energy that maintains self-avoidance by a penalization technique. Minimizers are computed by a sequential-quadratic-programming (SQP) method where the bending energy and proximity energy are approximated by a finite element method. We then apply this method to two problems. First, we simulate adsorbed polymer strands that are constrained to be bound to a surface and be (locally) inextensible. This is a basic model of semi-flexible polymers adsorbed onto a surface (a current topic in material science). Several examples of minimizing curve shapes on a variety of surfaces are shown. An advantage of the method is that it can be much faster than using molecular dynamics for simulating polymer strands on surfaces. Second, we apply our proximity penalization to the computation of ideal knots. We present a heuristic scheme, utilizing the SQP method above, for minimizing rope-length and apply it in the case of the trefoil knot. Applications of this method could be for generating good initial guesses to a more accurate (but expensive) knot-tightening algorithm.

  5. An extended L-curve method for choosing a regularization parameter in electrical resistance tomography

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Xu, Yanbin; Pei, Yang; Dong, Feng

    2016-01-01

    The L-curve method is a popular regularization parameter choice method for the ill-posed inverse problem of electrical resistance tomography (ERT). However the method cannot always determine a proper parameter for all situations. An investigation into those situations where the L-curve method failed show that a new corner point appears on the L-curve and the parameter corresponding to the new corner point can obtain a satisfactory reconstructed solution. Thus an extended L-curve method, which determines the regularization parameter associated with either global corner or the new corner, is proposed. Furthermore, two strategies are provided to determine the new corner–one is based on the second-order differential of L-curve, and the other is based on the curvature of L-curve. The proposed method is examined by both numerical simulations and experimental tests. And the results indicate that the extended method can handle the parameter choice problem even in the case where the typical L-curve method fails. Finally, in order to reduce the running time of the method, the extended method is combined with a projection method based on the Krylov subspace, which was able to boost the extended L-curve method. The results verify that the speed of the extended L-curve method is distinctly improved. The proposed method extends the application of the L-curve in the field of choosing regularization parameter with an acceptable running time and can also be used in other kinds of tomography. (paper)

  6. The Predictive Value of Ultrasound Learning Curves Across Simulated and Clinical Settings

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Madsen, Mette E; Nørgaard, Lone N; Tabor, Ann

    2017-01-01

    OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to explore whether learning curves on a virtual-reality (VR) sonographic simulator can be used to predict subsequent learning curves on a physical mannequin and learning curves during clinical training. METHODS: Twenty midwives completed a simulation-based tra......OBJECTIVES: The aim of the study was to explore whether learning curves on a virtual-reality (VR) sonographic simulator can be used to predict subsequent learning curves on a physical mannequin and learning curves during clinical training. METHODS: Twenty midwives completed a simulation......-based training program in transvaginal sonography. The training was conducted on a VR simulator as well as on a physical mannequin. A subgroup of 6 participants underwent subsequent clinical training. During each of the 3 steps, the participants' performance was assessed using instruments with established...... settings. RESULTS: A good correlation was found between time needed to achieve predefined performance levels on the VR simulator and the physical mannequin (Pearson correlation coefficient .78; P VR simulator correlated well to the clinical performance scores (Pearson...

  7. In-Vehicle Dynamic Curve-Speed Warnings at High-Risk Rural Curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    2018-03-01

    Lane-departure crashes at horizontal curves represent a significant portion of fatal crashes on rural Minnesota roads. Because of this, solutions are needed to aid drivers in identifying upcoming curves and inform them of a safe speed at which they s...

  8. Effects of ultraviolet radiation on the survival and metabolic end products of Bacteroides melaninogenicus

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Smith-Kappus, S.D.

    1987-01-01

    In experiments investigating DNA repair, it was shown that B. melaninogenicus does not repair UV light induced damage via photoreactivation. Survival curves constructed for the organism after exposure to UV light at 254 nm and 365 nm under aerobic and anaerobic conditions while the organisms were in exponential or stationary growth phase, revealed that the cells were most sensitive to UV induced damage when exposed to radiation while in the exponential growth phase under aerobic conditions at either wavelength. B. melaninogenicus exposed to UV light under anaerobic conditions while the cells were in stationary growth phase were much more sensitive to UV induced damage at 254 nm than cells irradiated under the same conditions at 365 nm UV. Survival studies of B. melaninogenicus after co-insult with UV light and subinhibitory concentrations of chloramphenicol, metronidazole, caffeine, or fluoroacetate, at 254 nm UV or 365 nm UV, under aerobic and anaerobic atmospheric conditions illustrated a decreased shoulder region on the curves, particularly after 365 nm UV exposure, when compared to UV irradiation applied without subsequent chemical treatment

  9. Analysis of single nucleotide variants of HFE gene and association to survival in The Cancer Genome Atlas GBM data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Sang Y; Zhu, Junjia; Salzberg, Anna C; Zhang, Bo; Liu, Dajiang J; Muscat, Joshua E; Langan, Sara T; Connor, James R

    2017-01-01

    Human hemochromatosis protein (HFE) is involved in iron metabolism. Two major HFE polymorphisms, H63D and C282Y, have been associated with an increased risk of cancers. Previously, we reported decreased gender effects in overall survival based on H63D or C282Y HFE polymorphisms patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM). However, the effect of other single nucleotide variation (SNV) in the HFE gene on the cancer development and progression has not been systematically studied. To expand our finding in a larger sample, and to identify other HFE SNV, we analyzed the frequency of somatic SNV in HFE gene and its relationship to survival in GBM patients using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) GBM (Caucasian only) database. We found 9 SNVs with increased frequency in blood normal of TCGA GBM patients compared to the 1000Genome. Among 9 SNVs, 7 SNVs were located in the intron and 2 SNVs (i.e., H63D, C282Y) in the exon of HFE gene. The statistical analysis demonstrated that blood normal samples of TCGA GBM have more H63D (p = 0.0002, 95% Confidence interval (CI): 0.2119-0.3223) or C282Y (p = 0.0129, 95% CI: 0.0474-0.1159) HFE polymorphisms than 1000Genome. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve for the 264 GBM samples revealed no difference between wild type (WT) HFE and H63D, and WT HFE and C282Y GBM patients. In addition, there was no difference in the survival of male/female GBM patients based on HFE genotype. There was no correlation between HFE expression and survival. In conclusion, the current results suggest that somatic HFE polymorphisms do not impact GBM patients' survival in the TCGA data set of GBM.

  10. Analysis of single nucleotide variants of HFE gene and association to survival in The Cancer Genome Atlas GBM data.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sang Y Lee

    Full Text Available Human hemochromatosis protein (HFE is involved in iron metabolism. Two major HFE polymorphisms, H63D and C282Y, have been associated with an increased risk of cancers. Previously, we reported decreased gender effects in overall survival based on H63D or C282Y HFE polymorphisms patients with glioblastoma multiforme (GBM. However, the effect of other single nucleotide variation (SNV in the HFE gene on the cancer development and progression has not been systematically studied. To expand our finding in a larger sample, and to identify other HFE SNV, we analyzed the frequency of somatic SNV in HFE gene and its relationship to survival in GBM patients using The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA GBM (Caucasian only database. We found 9 SNVs with increased frequency in blood normal of TCGA GBM patients compared to the 1000Genome. Among 9 SNVs, 7 SNVs were located in the intron and 2 SNVs (i.e., H63D, C282Y in the exon of HFE gene. The statistical analysis demonstrated that blood normal samples of TCGA GBM have more H63D (p = 0.0002, 95% Confidence interval (CI: 0.2119-0.3223 or C282Y (p = 0.0129, 95% CI: 0.0474-0.1159 HFE polymorphisms than 1000Genome. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve for the 264 GBM samples revealed no difference between wild type (WT HFE and H63D, and WT HFE and C282Y GBM patients. In addition, there was no difference in the survival of male/female GBM patients based on HFE genotype. There was no correlation between HFE expression and survival. In conclusion, the current results suggest that somatic HFE polymorphisms do not impact GBM patients' survival in the TCGA data set of GBM.

  11. Comparison of chromium-51 and iron-59 for estimating erythrocyte survival in the cat

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Liddle, C.G.; Putnam, J.P.; Berman, E.; Fisher, H.; Ostby, J.

    1984-01-01

    Erythrocyte survival studies were conducted on eight normal, healthy, 1-year-old male specific-pathogen-free cats using both chromium-51 and iron-59 simultaneously. The chromium-51 procedure gave a half-life value of 11.1 +/- 0.9 days. This was considerably lower than would be expected on the basis of the experimentally determined iron-59 erythrocyte survival time of 51.2 +/- 14.9 days. The results of this study indicated that there was considerable loss of the chromium-51 label in the cat other than that from senescence alone. An analysis of the chromium-51 disappearance curve indicated that there were two exponential disappearance rates for the chromium-51 label and, in the absence of cell death, approximately 67% of the label was lost with a rate constant of 0.02 per day and 33% was lost with a rate constant of 0.1 per day. An equation is presented which models the loss of chromium-51 label which could be used to calculate erythrocyte survival from a chromium-51 disappearance curve. Blood volume measurements, hemograms, bone marrow differential results, and iron kinetic values also were determined and the results presented. While a reasonable approximation of the erythrocyte life span could be made by correcting the chromium-51 values for losses other than senescence, the iron-59 procedure would be the preferred method in cats

  12. An Enhanced Biometric Based Authentication with Key-Agreement Protocol for Multi-Server Architecture Based on Elliptic Curve Cryptography.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Alavalapati Goutham; Das, Ashok Kumar; Odelu, Vanga; Yoo, Kee-Young

    2016-01-01

    Biometric based authentication protocols for multi-server architectures have gained momentum in recent times due to advancements in wireless technologies and associated constraints. Lu et al. recently proposed a robust biometric based authentication with key agreement protocol for a multi-server environment using smart cards. They claimed that their protocol is efficient and resistant to prominent security attacks. The careful investigation of this paper proves that Lu et al.'s protocol does not provide user anonymity, perfect forward secrecy and is susceptible to server and user impersonation attacks, man-in-middle attacks and clock synchronization problems. In addition, this paper proposes an enhanced biometric based authentication with key-agreement protocol for multi-server architecture based on elliptic curve cryptography using smartcards. We proved that the proposed protocol achieves mutual authentication using Burrows-Abadi-Needham (BAN) logic. The formal security of the proposed protocol is verified using the AVISPA (Automated Validation of Internet Security Protocols and Applications) tool to show that our protocol can withstand active and passive attacks. The formal and informal security analyses and performance analysis demonstrates that the proposed protocol is robust and efficient compared to Lu et al.'s protocol and existing similar protocols.

  13. A semiparametric separation curve approach for comparing correlated ROC data from multiple markers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tang, Liansheng Larry; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2012-01-01

    In this article we propose a separation curve method to identify the range of false positive rates for which two ROC curves differ or one ROC curve is superior to the other. Our method is based on a general multivariate ROC curve model, including interaction terms between discrete covariates and false positive rates. It is applicable with most existing ROC curve models. Furthermore, we introduce a semiparametric least squares ROC estimator and apply the estimator to the separation curve method. We derive a sandwich estimator for the covariance matrix of the semiparametric estimator. We illustrate the application of our separation curve method through two real life examples. PMID:23074360

  14. Clinical Nomogram for Predicting Survival Outcomes in Early Mucinous Breast Cancer.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jianfei Fu

    Full Text Available The features related to the prognosis of patients with mucinous breast cancer (MBC remain controversial. We aimed to explore the prognostic factors of MBC and develop a nomogram for predicting survival outcomes.The Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER database was searched to identify 139611 women with resectable breast cancer from 1990 to 2007. Survival curves were generated using Kaplan-Meier methods. The 5-year and 10-year cancer-specific survival (CSS rates were calculated using the Life-Table method. Based on Cox models, a nomogram was constructed to predict the probabilities of CSS for an individual patient. The competing risk regression model was used to analyse the specific survival of patients with MBC.There were 136569 (97.82% infiltrative ductal cancer (IDC patients and 3042 (2.18% MBC patients. Patients with MBC had less lymph node involvement, a higher frequency of well-differentiated lesions, and more estrogen receptor (ER-positive tumors. Patients with MBC had significantly higher 5 and10-year CSS rates (98.23 and 96.03%, respectively than patients with IDC (91.44 and 85.48%, respectively. Univariate and multivariate analyses showed that MBC was an independent factor for better prognosis. As for patients with MBC, the event of death caused by another disease exceeded the event of death caused by breast cancer. A competing risk regression model further showed that lymph node involvement, poorly differentiated grade and advanced T-classification were independent factors of poor prognosis in patients with MBC. The Nomogram can accurately predict CSS with a high C-index (0.816. Risk scores developed from the nomogram can more accurately predict the prognosis of patients with MBC (C-index = 0.789 than the traditional TNM system (C-index = 0.704, P< 0.001.Patients with MBC have a better prognosis than patients with IDC. Nomograms could help clinicians make more informed decisions in clinical practice. The competing risk

  15. Remote sensing used for power curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Wagner, Rozenn; Ejsing Jørgensen, Hans; Schmidt Paulsen, Uwe

    2008-01-01

    Power curve measurement for large wind turbines requires taking into account more parameters than only the wind speed at hub height. Based on results from aerodynamic simulations, an equivalent wind speed taking the wind shear into account was defined and found to reduce the power standard deviat...

  16. Graphical evaluation of complexometric titration curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guinon, J L

    1985-04-01

    A graphical method, based on logarithmic concentration diagrams, for construction, without any calculations, of complexometric titration curves is examined. The titration curves obtained for different kinds of unidentate, bidentate and quadridentate ligands clearly show why only chelating ligands are usually used in titrimetric analysis. The method has also been applied to two practical cases where unidentate ligands are used: (a) the complexometric determination of mercury(II) with halides and (b) the determination of cyanide with silver, which involves both a complexation and a precipitation system; for this purpose construction of the diagrams for the HgCl(2)/HgCl(+)/Hg(2+) and Ag(CN)(2)(-)/AgCN/CN(-) systems is considered in detail.

  17. IPO survival in a reputational market

    OpenAIRE

    Espenlaub, Susanne; Khurshed, Arif; Mohamed, Abdulkadir

    2012-01-01

    We examine IPO survival in a 'reputational' market, the Alternative Investment Market (AIM), where principle-based regulation pivots on the role of a regulatory agent, the nominated advisor (Nomad) to the IPO company. We find that Nomad reputation has a significant impact on IPO survival. IPOs backed by reputable Nomads 'survive longer (by about two years) than those backed by other Nomads. We also find that survival rates of AIM IPOs are broadly comparable to those of North American IPOs. Wh...

  18. Dual kinetic curves in reversible electrochemical systems.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael J Hankins

    Full Text Available We introduce dual kinetic chronoamperometry, in which reciprocal relations are established between the kinetic curves of electrochemical reactions that start from symmetrical initial conditions. We have performed numerical and experimental studies in which the kinetic curves of the electron-transfer processes are analyzed for a reversible first order reaction. Experimental tests were done with the ferrocyanide/ferricyanide system in which the concentrations of each component could be measured separately using the platinum disk/gold ring electrode. It is shown that the proper ratio of the transient kinetic curves obtained from cathodic and anodic mass transfer limited regions give thermodynamic time invariances related to the reaction quotient of the bulk concentrations. Therefore, thermodynamic time invariances can be observed at any time using the dual kinetic curves for reversible reactions. The technique provides a unique possibility to extract the non-steady state trajectory starting from one initial condition based only on the equilibrium constant and the trajectory which starts from the symmetrical initial condition. The results could impact battery technology by predicting the concentrations and currents of the underlying non-steady state processes in a wide domain from thermodynamic principles and limited kinetic information.

  19. Determination of performance degradation of a marine diesel engine by using curve based approach

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kökkülünk, Görkem; Parlak, Adnan; Erdem, Hasan Hüseyin

    2016-01-01

    Highlights: • Mathematical model was developed for a marine diesel engine. • Measurements were taken from Main Engine of M/V Ince Inebolu. • The model was validated for the marine diesel engine. • Curve Based Method was performed to evaluate the performance. • Degradation values of a marine diesel engine were found for power and SFC. - Abstract: Nowadays, energy efficiency measures on ships are the top priority topic for the maritime sector. One of the important key parameters of energy efficiency is to find the useful tool to improve the energy efficiency. There are two steps to improve the energy efficiency on ships: Measurement and Evaluation of performance of main fuel consumers. Performance evaluation is the method that evaluates how much the performance changes owing to engine component degradation which cause to reduce the performance due to wear, fouling, mechanical problems, etc. In this study, zero dimensional two zone combustion model is developed and validated for two stroke marine diesel engine (MITSUI MAN B&W 6S50MC). The measurements are taken from a real ship named M/V Ince Inebolu by the research team during the normal operation of the main engine in the region of the Marmara Sea. To evaluate the performance, “Curve based method” is used to calculate the total performance degradation. This total degradation is classified as parameters of compression pressure, injection timing, injection pressure, scavenge air temperature and scavenge air pressure by means of developed mathematical model. In conclusion, the total degradation of the applied ship is found as 620 kW by power and 26.74 g/kW h by specific fuel consumption.

  20. Wheelset curving guidance using H∞ control

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qazizadeh, Alireza; Stichel, Sebastian; Feyzmahdavian, Hamid Reza

    2018-03-01

    This study shows how to design an active suspension system for guidance of a rail vehicle wheelset in curve. The main focus of the study is on designing the controller and afterwards studying its effect on the wheel wear behaviour. The controller is designed based on the closed-loop transfer function shaping method and ? control strategy. The study discusses designing of the controller for both nominal and uncertain plants and considers both stability and performance. The designed controllers in Simulink are then applied to the vehicle model in Simpack to study the wheel wear behaviour in curve. The vehicle type selected for this study is a two-axle rail vehicle. This is because this type of vehicle is known to have very poor curving performance and high wheel wear. On the other hand, the relative simpler structure of this type of vehicle compared to bogie vehicles make it a more economic choice. Hence, equipping this type of vehicle with the active wheelset steering is believed to show high enough benefit to cost ratio to remain attractive to rail vehicle manufacturers and operators.

  1. Seismic fragility curves of bridge piers accounting for ground motions in Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nguyen, Duy-Duan; Lee, Tae-Hyung

    2018-04-01

    Korea is located in a slight-to-moderate seismic zone. Nevertheless, several studies pointed that the peak earthquake magnitude in the region can be reached to approximately 6.5. Accordingly, a seismic vulnerability evaluation of the existing structures accounting for ground motions in Korea is momentous. The purpose of this paper is to develop seismic fragility curves for bridge piers of a steel box girder bridge equipped with and without base isolators based on a set of ground motions recorded in Korea. A finite element simulation platform, OpenSees, is utilized to perform nonlinear time history analyses of the bridges. A series of damage states is defined based on a damage index which is expressed in terms of the column displacement ductility ratio. The fragility curves based on Korean motions were thereafter compared with the fragility curves generated using worldwide earthquakes to assess the effect of the two ground motion groups on the seismic fragility curves of the bridge piers. The results reveal that both non- and base-isolated bridge piers are less vulnerable during the Korean ground motions than that under worldwide earthquakes.

  2. SU-F-T-02: Estimation of Radiobiological Doses (BED and EQD2) of Single Fraction Electronic Brachytherapy That Equivalent to I-125 Eye Plaque: By Using Linear-Quadratic and Universal Survival Curve Models

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Y; Waldron, T; Pennington, E

    2016-01-01

    Purpose: To test the radiobiological impact of hypofractionated choroidal melanoma brachytherapy, we calculated single fraction equivalent doses (SFED) of the tumor that equivalent to 85 Gy of I125-BT for 20 patients. Corresponding organs-at-risks (OARs) doses were estimated. Methods: Twenty patients treated with I125-BT were retrospectively examined. The tumor SFED values were calculated from tumor BED using a conventional linear-quadratic (L-Q) model and an universal survival curve (USC). The opposite retina (α/β = 2.58), macula (2.58), optic disc (1.75), and lens (1.2) were examined. The % doses of OARs over tumor doses were assumed to be the same as for a single fraction delivery. The OAR SFED values were converted into BED and equivalent dose in 2 Gy fraction (EQD2) by using both L-Q and USC models, then compared to I125-BT. Results: The USC-based BED and EQD2 doses of the macula, optic disc, and the lens were on average 118 ± 46% (p 14 Gy). Conclusion: The estimated single fraction doses were feasible to be delivered within 1 hour using a high dose rate source such as electronic brachytherapy (eBT). However, the estimated OAR doses using eBT were 112 ∼ 118% higher than when using the I125-BT technique. Continued exploration of alternative dose rate or fractionation schedules should be followed.

  3. The curve shortening problem

    CERN Document Server

    Chou, Kai-Seng

    2001-01-01

    Although research in curve shortening flow has been very active for nearly 20 years, the results of those efforts have remained scattered throughout the literature. For the first time, The Curve Shortening Problem collects and illuminates those results in a comprehensive, rigorous, and self-contained account of the fundamental results.The authors present a complete treatment of the Gage-Hamilton theorem, a clear, detailed exposition of Grayson''s convexity theorem, a systematic discussion of invariant solutions, applications to the existence of simple closed geodesics on a surface, and a new, almost convexity theorem for the generalized curve shortening problem.Many questions regarding curve shortening remain outstanding. With its careful exposition and complete guide to the literature, The Curve Shortening Problem provides not only an outstanding starting point for graduate students and new investigations, but a superb reference that presents intriguing new results for those already active in the field.

  4. Seismic Risk of the Base Isolation System Protected by the Hard Stop

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kim, Jung Han; Choi, In-Kil; Kim, Min Kyu

    2015-01-01

    The concept of base isolation is to permit the deformation of isolator for absorbing seismic input wave from the ground. In a nuclear power plant design, allowable shear deformation of isolators should be enough to absorb the displacement response by extended design basis (EDB) ground motions. However isolators cannot resist over its displacement capacity. So, the clearance of hard stop (CHS) needs to be set between the response of base isolation system excited by the EDB ground motion and the displacement capacity of isolators. The isolation system must survive with high confidence in any seismic accident because it is a non-redundant system. Therefore, the CHS should be determined carefully based on the failure risk of base isolation system considering the uncertainties of earthquake responses and isolator capacities. In this research, the fragility curve of isolation system and its failure risk were estimated. The procedure to calculate the acceleration based fragility curve of the isolation system was developed. The fragility curve and failure risk for example case was estimated and its result was compared with different isolator capacities

  5. Seismic Risk of the Base Isolation System Protected by the Hard Stop

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kim, Jung Han; Choi, In-Kil; Kim, Min Kyu [Korea Atomic Energy Research Institute, Daejeon (Korea, Republic of)

    2015-10-15

    The concept of base isolation is to permit the deformation of isolator for absorbing seismic input wave from the ground. In a nuclear power plant design, allowable shear deformation of isolators should be enough to absorb the displacement response by extended design basis (EDB) ground motions. However isolators cannot resist over its displacement capacity. So, the clearance of hard stop (CHS) needs to be set between the response of base isolation system excited by the EDB ground motion and the displacement capacity of isolators. The isolation system must survive with high confidence in any seismic accident because it is a non-redundant system. Therefore, the CHS should be determined carefully based on the failure risk of base isolation system considering the uncertainties of earthquake responses and isolator capacities. In this research, the fragility curve of isolation system and its failure risk were estimated. The procedure to calculate the acceleration based fragility curve of the isolation system was developed. The fragility curve and failure risk for example case was estimated and its result was compared with different isolator capacities.

  6. Four-dimensional hilbert curves for R-trees

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Haverkort, Herman; Walderveen, Freek van

    2011-01-01

    Two-dimensional R-trees are a class of spatial index structures in which objects are arranged to enable fast window queries: report all objects that intersect a given query window. One of the most successful methods of arranging the objects in the index structure is based on sorting the objects...... according to the positions of their centers along a two-dimensional Hilbert space-filling curve. Alternatively, one may use the coordinates of the objects' bounding boxes to represent each object by a four-dimensional point, and sort these points along a four-dimensional Hilbert-type curve. In experiments...

  7. The antiproton depth–dose curve in water

    CERN Document Server

    Bassler, N; Jäkel, O; Knudsen, H V; Kovacevic, S

    2008-01-01

    We have measured the depth–dose curve of 126 MeV antiprotons in a water phantom using ionization chambers. Since the antiproton beam provided by CERN has a pulsed structure and possibly carries a high-LET component from the antiproton annihilation, it is necessary to correct the acquired charge for ion recombination effects. The results are compared with Monte Carlo calculations and were found to be in good agreement. Based on this agreement we calculate the antiproton depth–dose curve for antiprotons and compare it with that for protons and find a doubling of the physical dose in the peak region for antiprotons.

  8. TELECOMMUNICATIONS INFRASTRUCTURE AND GDP /JIPP CURVE/

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mariana Kaneva

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available The relationship between telecommunications infrastructure and economic activity is under discussion in many scientific papers. Most of the authors use for research and analysis the Jipp curve. A lot of doubts about the correctness of the Jipp curve appear in terms of applying econometric models. The aim of this study is a review of the Jipp curve, refining the possibility of its application in modern conditions. The methodology used in the study is based on dynamic econometric models, including tests for nonstationarity and tests for causality. The focus of this study is directed to methodological problems in measuring the local density types of telecommunication networks. This study offers a specific methodology for assessing the Jipp law, through VAR-approach and Granger causality tests. It is proved that mechanical substitution of momentary aggregated variables (such as the number of subscribers of a telecommunication network at the end of the year and periodically aggregated variables (such as GDP per capita in the Jipp�s curve is methodologically wrong. Researchers have to reconsider the relationship set in the Jipp�s curve by including additional variables that characterize the Telecommunications sector and the economic activity in a particular country within a specified time period. GDP per capita should not be regarded as a single factor for the local density of telecommunications infrastructure. New econometric models studying the relationship between the investments in telecommunications infrastructure and economic development may be not only linear regression models, but also other econometric models. New econometric models should be proposed after testing and validating with sound economic theory and econometric methodology.

  9. Modeling time-to-event (survival) data using classification tree analysis.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Linden, Ariel; Yarnold, Paul R

    2017-12-01

    Time to the occurrence of an event is often studied in health research. Survival analysis differs from other designs in that follow-up times for individuals who do not experience the event by the end of the study (called censored) are accounted for in the analysis. Cox regression is the standard method for analysing censored data, but the assumptions required of these models are easily violated. In this paper, we introduce classification tree analysis (CTA) as a flexible alternative for modelling censored data. Classification tree analysis is a "decision-tree"-like classification model that provides parsimonious, transparent (ie, easy to visually display and interpret) decision rules that maximize predictive accuracy, derives exact P values via permutation tests, and evaluates model cross-generalizability. Using empirical data, we identify all statistically valid, reproducible, longitudinally consistent, and cross-generalizable CTA survival models and then compare their predictive accuracy to estimates derived via Cox regression and an unadjusted naïve model. Model performance is assessed using integrated Brier scores and a comparison between estimated survival curves. The Cox regression model best predicts average incidence of the outcome over time, whereas CTA survival models best predict either relatively high, or low, incidence of the outcome over time. Classification tree analysis survival models offer many advantages over Cox regression, such as explicit maximization of predictive accuracy, parsimony, statistical robustness, and transparency. Therefore, researchers interested in accurate prognoses and clear decision rules should consider developing models using the CTA-survival framework. © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

  10. Pretreatment Evaluation of Microcirculation by Dynamic Contrast-Enhanced Magnetic Resonance Imaging Predicts Survival in Primary Rectal Cancer Patients

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    DeVries, Alexander Friedrich [Department of Radio-Oncology, Academic Teaching Hospital Feldkirch, Feldkirch (Austria); Piringer, Gudrun, E-mail: gudrun.piringer@hotmail.com [Department of Oncology, Wels-Grieskirchen Medical Hospital, Wels (Austria); Kremser, Christian; Judmaier, Werner [Department of Radiology, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck (Austria); Saely, Christoph Hubert [Department of Medicine and Cardiology, Academic Teaching Hospital Feldkirch, Feldkirch (Austria); Lukas, Peter [Department of Radio-Oncology, Innsbruck Medical University, Innsbruck (Austria); Öfner, Dietmar [Department of Surgery, Paracelsus Medical University, Salzburg (Austria)

    2014-12-01

    Purpose: To investigate the prognostic value of the perfusion index (PI), a microcirculatory parameter estimated from dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI), which integrates information on both flow and permeability, to predict overall survival and disease-free survival in patients with primary rectal cancer. Methods and Materials: A total of 83 patients with stage cT3 rectal cancer requiring neoadjuvant chemoradiation were investigated with DCE-MRI before start of therapy. Contrast-enhanced dynamic T{sub 1} mapping was obtained, and a simple data analysis strategy based on the calculation of the maximum slope of the tissue concentration–time curve divided by the maximum of the arterial input function was used as a measure of tumor microcirculation (PI), which integrates information on both flow and permeability. Results: In 39 patients (47.0%), T downstaging (ypT0-2) was observed. During a mean (±SD) follow-up period of 71 ± 29 months, 58 patients (69.9%) survived, and disease-free survival was achieved in 45 patients (54.2%). The mean PI (PImean) averaged over the group of nonresponders was significantly higher than for responders. Additionally, higher PImean in age- and gender-adjusted analyses was strongly predictive of therapy nonresponse. Most importantly, PImean strongly and significantly predicted disease-free survival (unadjusted hazard ratio [HR], 1.85 [ 95% confidence interval, 1.35-2.54; P<.001)]; HR adjusted for age and sex, 1.81 [1.30-2.51]; P<.001) as well as overall survival (unadjusted HR 1.42 [1.02-1.99], P=.040; HR adjusted for age and sex, 1.43 [1.03-1.98]; P=.034). Conclusions: This analysis identifies PImean as a novel biomarker that is predictive for therapy response, disease-free survival, and overall survival in patients with primary locally advanced rectal cancer.

  11. Comparison of Paired ROC Curves through a Two-Stage Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Wenbao; Park, Eunsik; Chang, Yuan-Chin Ivan

    2015-01-01

    The area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve (AUC) is a popularly used index when comparing two ROC curves. Statistical tests based on it for analyzing the difference have been well developed. However, this index is less informative when two ROC curves cross and have similar AUCs. In order to detect differences between ROC curves in such situations, a two-stage nonparametric test that uses a shifted area under the ROC curve (sAUC), along with AUCs, is proposed for paired designs. The new procedure is shown, numerically, to be effective in terms of power under a wide range of scenarios; additionally, it outperforms two conventional ROC-type tests, especially when two ROC curves cross each other and have similar AUCs. Larger sAUC implies larger partial AUC at the range of low false-positive rates in this case. Because high specificity is important in many classification tasks, such as medical diagnosis, this is an appealing characteristic. The test also implicitly analyzes the equality of two commonly used binormal ROC curves at every operating point. We also apply the proposed method to synthesized data and two real examples to illustrate its usefulness in practice.

  12. Disparities in Survival with Bystander CPR following Cardiopulmonary Arrest Based on Neighborhood Characteristics

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nina Thakkar Rivera

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The American Heart Association reports the annual incidence of out-of-hospital cardiopulmonary arrests (OHCA is greater than 300,000 with a survival rate of 9.5%. Bystander cardiopulmonary resuscitation (CPR saves one life for every 30, with a 10% decrease in survival associated with every minute of delay in CPR initiation. Bystander CPR and training vary widely by region. We conducted a retrospective study of 320 persons who suffered OHCA in South Florida over 25 months. Increased survival, overall and with bystander CPR, was seen with increasing income (p=0.05, with a stronger disparity between low- and high-income neighborhoods (p=0.01 and p=0.03, resp.. Survival with bystander CPR was statistically greater in white- versus black-predominant neighborhoods (p=0.04. Increased survival, overall and with bystander CPR, was seen with high- versus low-education neighborhoods (p=0.03. Neighborhoods with more high school age persons displayed the lowest survival. We discovered a significant disparity in OHCA survival within neighborhoods of low-income, black-predominance, and low-education. Reduced survival was seen in neighborhoods with larger populations of high school students. This group is a potential target for training, and instruction can conceivably change survival outcomes in these neighborhoods, closing the gap, thus improving survival for all.

  13. Master curve based correlation between static initiation toughness KIC and crack arrest toughness KIa

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wallin, K.; Rintamaa, R.

    1999-01-01

    Historically the ASME reference curve concept assumes a constant relation between static fracture toughness initiation toughness and crack arrest toughness. In reality, this is not the case. Experimental results show that the difference between K IC and K Ia is material specific. For some materials there is a big difference while for others they nearly coincide. So far, however, no systematic study regarding a possible correlation between the two parameters has been performed. The recent Master curve method, developed for brittle fracture initiation estimation, has enabled a consistent analysis of fracture initiation toughness data. The Master curve method has been modified to be able to describe also crack arrest toughness. Here, this modified 'crack arrest master curve' is further validated and used to develop a simple, but yet (for safety assessment purpose) adequately accurate correlation between the two fracture toughness parameters. The correlation enables the estimation of crack arrest toughness from small Charpy-sized static fracture toughness tests. The correlation is valid for low Nickel steels ≤ (1.2% Ni). If a more accurate description of the crack arrest toughness is required, it can either be measured experimentally or estimated from instrumented Charpy-V crack arrest load information. (orig.)

  14. Graphene based tunable fractal Hilbert curve array broadband radar absorbing screen for radar cross section reduction

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Huang, Xianjun, E-mail: xianjun.huang@manchester.ac.uk [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); College of Electronic Science and Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073 (China); Hu, Zhirun [School of Electrical and Electronic Engineering, University of Manchester, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom); Liu, Peiguo [College of Electronic Science and Engineering, National University of Defense Technology, Changsha 410073 (China)

    2014-11-15

    This paper proposes a new type of graphene based tunable radar absorbing screen. The absorbing screen consists of Hilbert curve metal strip array and chemical vapour deposition (CVD) graphene sheet. The graphene based screen is not only tunable when the chemical potential of the graphene changes, but also has broadband effective absorption. The absorption bandwidth is from 8.9GHz to 18.1GHz, ie., relative bandwidth of more than 68%, at chemical potential of 0eV, which is significantly wider than that if the graphene sheet had not been employed. As the chemical potential varies from 0 to 0.4eV, the central frequency of the screen can be tuned from 13.5GHz to 19.0GHz. In the proposed structure, Hilbert curve metal strip array was designed to provide multiple narrow band resonances, whereas the graphene sheet directly underneath the metal strip array provides tunability and averagely required surface resistance so to significantly extend the screen operation bandwidth by providing broadband impedance matching and absorption. In addition, the thickness of the screen has been optimized to achieve nearly the minimum thickness limitation for a nonmagnetic absorber. The working principle of this absorbing screen is studied in details, and performance under various incident angles is presented. This work extends applications of graphene into tunable microwave radar cross section (RCS) reduction applications.

  15. Graphene based tunable fractal Hilbert curve array broadband radar absorbing screen for radar cross section reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Huang, Xianjun; Hu, Zhirun; Liu, Peiguo

    2014-01-01

    This paper proposes a new type of graphene based tunable radar absorbing screen. The absorbing screen consists of Hilbert curve metal strip array and chemical vapour deposition (CVD) graphene sheet. The graphene based screen is not only tunable when the chemical potential of the graphene changes, but also has broadband effective absorption. The absorption bandwidth is from 8.9GHz to 18.1GHz, ie., relative bandwidth of more than 68%, at chemical potential of 0eV, which is significantly wider than that if the graphene sheet had not been employed. As the chemical potential varies from 0 to 0.4eV, the central frequency of the screen can be tuned from 13.5GHz to 19.0GHz. In the proposed structure, Hilbert curve metal strip array was designed to provide multiple narrow band resonances, whereas the graphene sheet directly underneath the metal strip array provides tunability and averagely required surface resistance so to significantly extend the screen operation bandwidth by providing broadband impedance matching and absorption. In addition, the thickness of the screen has been optimized to achieve nearly the minimum thickness limitation for a nonmagnetic absorber. The working principle of this absorbing screen is studied in details, and performance under various incident angles is presented. This work extends applications of graphene into tunable microwave radar cross section (RCS) reduction applications

  16. Incidence and survival of stomach cancer in a high-risk population of Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Heise, Katy; Bertran, Enriqueta; Andia, Marcelo E; Ferreccio, Catterina

    2009-01-01

    AIM: To study the incidence and survival rate of stomach cancer (SC) and its associated factors in a high risk population in Chile. METHODS: The population-based cancer registry of Valdivia, included in the International Agency for Research on Cancer system, covers 356 396 residents of Valdivia Province, Southern Chile. We studied all SC cases entered in this Registry during 1998-2002 (529 cases). Population data came from the Chilean census (2002). Standardized incidence rates per 100 000 inhabitants (SIR) using the world population, cumulative risk of developing cancer before age 75, and rate ratios by sex, age, ethnicity and social factors were estimated. Relative survival (Ederer II method) and age-standardized estimates (Brenner method) were calculated. Specific survival rates (Kaplan-Meier) were measured at 3 and 5 years and survival curves were analyzed with the Logrank and Breslow tests. Survival was studied in relation to demographics, clinical presentation, laboratory results and medical management of the cases. Those variables significantly associated with survival were later included in a Cox multivariate model. RESULTS: Between 1998 and 2002, 529 primary gastric cancers occurred in Valdivia (crude incidence rate 29.2 per 100 000 inhabitants). Most cases were male (69.0%), residents of urban areas (57.5%) and Hispanic (83.2%), with a low education level (84.5% Mapuche ethnicity only significant for women (RR 2.2, 95% CI: 1.2-3.7). Of all cases, 76.4% were histologically confirmed, 11.5% had a death certificate only (DCO), 56.1% were TNM stage IV; 445 cases (84.1%) were eligible for survival analysis, all completed five years follow-up; 42 remained alive, 392 died of SC and 11 died from other causes. Specific 5-year survival, excluding cases with DCO, was 10.6% (95% CI: 7.7-13.5); 5-year relative survival rate was 12.3% (95% CI: 9.1-16.1), men 10.9% (95% CI: 7.4-15.2) and women 16.1% (95% CI: 9.5-24.5). Five-year specific survival was higher for patients

  17. Intratumoral heterogeneity of 18F-FDG uptake predicts survival in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hyun, Seung Hyup; Kim, Ho Seong; Lee, Kyung-Han; Kim, Byung-Tae; Choi, Joon Young; Choi, Seong Ho; Choi, Dong Wook; Lee, Jong Kyun; Lee, Kwang Hyuck; Park, Joon Oh

    2016-01-01

    To assess whether intratumoral heterogeneity measured by 18 F-FDG PET texture analysis has potential as a prognostic imaging biomarker in patients with pancreatic ductal adenocarcinoma (PDAC). We evaluated a cohort of 137 patients with newly diagnosed PDAC who underwent pretreatment 18 F-FDG PET/CT from January 2008 to December 2010. First-order (histogram indices) and higher-order (grey-level run length, difference, size zone matrices) textural features of primary tumours were extracted by PET texture analysis. Conventional PET parameters including metabolic tumour volume (MTV), total lesion glycolysis (TLG), and standardized uptake value (SUV) were also measured. To assess and compare the predictive performance of imaging biomarkers, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves for censored survival data and areas under the ROC curve (AUC) at 2 years after diagnosis were used. Associations between imaging biomarkers and overall survival were assessed using Cox proportional hazards regression models. The best imaging biomarker for overall survival prediction was first-order entropy (AUC = 0.720), followed by TLG (AUC = 0.697), MTV (AUC = 0.692), and maximum SUV (AUC = 0.625). After adjusting for age, sex, clinical stage, tumour size and serum CA19-9 level, multivariable Cox analysis demonstrated that higher entropy (hazard ratio, HR, 5.59; P = 0.028) was independently associated with worse survival, whereas TLG (HR 0.98; P = 0.875) was not an independent prognostic factor. Intratumoral heterogeneity of 18 F-FDG uptake measured by PET texture analysis is an independent predictor of survival along with tumour stage and serum CA19-9 level in patients with PDAC. In addition, first-order entropy as a measure of intratumoral metabolic heterogeneity is a better quantitative imaging biomarker of prognosis than conventional PET parameters. (orig.)

  18. Prediction of survival by texture-based automated quantitative assessment of regional disease patterns on CT in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Sang Min; Seo, Joon Beom; Oh, Sang Young; Lee, Sang Min; Kim, Namkug; Kim, Tae Hoon; Song, Jin Woo

    2018-01-01

    To retrospectively investigate whether the baseline extent and 1-year change in regional disease patterns on CT can predict survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). A total of 144 IPF patients with CT scans at the time of diagnosis and 1 year later were included. The extents of five regional disease patterns were quantified using an in-house texture-based automated system. The fibrosis score was defined as the sum of the extent of honeycombing and reticular opacity. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the independent predictors of survival. A total of 106 patients (73.6%) died during the follow-up period. Univariate analysis revealed that age, baseline forced vital capacity, total lung capacity, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, six-minute walk distance, desaturation , honeycombing, reticular opacity, fibrosis score, and interval changes in honeycombing and fibrosis score were significantly associated with survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, desaturation, fibrosis score and interval change in fibrosis score were significant independent predictors of survival (p = 0.003, <0.001, 0.001 and <0.001). The C-index for the developed model was 0.768. Texture-based, automated CT quantification of fibrosis can be used as an independent predictor of survival in IPF patients. (orig.)

  19. Prediction of survival by texture-based automated quantitative assessment of regional disease patterns on CT in idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Sang Min; Seo, Joon Beom; Oh, Sang Young; Lee, Sang Min; Kim, Namkug [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Department of Radiology and Research Institute of Radiology, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Tae Hoon; Song, Jin Woo [University of Ulsan College of Medicine, Asan Medical Center, Department of Pulmonary and Critical Care Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of)

    2018-03-15

    To retrospectively investigate whether the baseline extent and 1-year change in regional disease patterns on CT can predict survival of patients with idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis (IPF). A total of 144 IPF patients with CT scans at the time of diagnosis and 1 year later were included. The extents of five regional disease patterns were quantified using an in-house texture-based automated system. The fibrosis score was defined as the sum of the extent of honeycombing and reticular opacity. The Cox proportional hazard model was used to determine the independent predictors of survival. A total of 106 patients (73.6%) died during the follow-up period. Univariate analysis revealed that age, baseline forced vital capacity, total lung capacity, diffusing capacity of the lung for carbon monoxide, six-minute walk distance, desaturation{sub ,} honeycombing, reticular opacity, fibrosis score, and interval changes in honeycombing and fibrosis score were significantly associated with survival. Multivariate analysis revealed that age, desaturation, fibrosis score and interval change in fibrosis score were significant independent predictors of survival (p = 0.003, <0.001, 0.001 and <0.001). The C-index for the developed model was 0.768. Texture-based, automated CT quantification of fibrosis can be used as an independent predictor of survival in IPF patients. (orig.)

  20. Probability- and curve-based fractal reconstruction on 2D DEM terrain profile

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lai, F.-J.; Huang, Y.M.

    2009-01-01

    Data compression and reconstruction has been playing important roles in information science and engineering. As part of them, image compression and reconstruction that mainly deal with image data set reduction for storage or transmission and data set restoration with least loss is still a topic deserved a great deal of works to focus on. In this paper we propose a new scheme in comparison with the well-known Improved Douglas-Peucker (IDP) method to extract characteristic or feature points of two-dimensional digital elevation model (2D DEM) terrain profile to compress data set. As for reconstruction in use of fractal interpolation, we propose a probability-based method to speed up the fractal interpolation execution to a rate as high as triple or even ninefold of the regular. In addition, a curve-based method is proposed in the study to determine the vertical scaling factor that much affects the generation of the interpolated data points to significantly improve the reconstruction performance. Finally, an evaluation is made to show the advantage of employing the proposed new method to extract characteristic points associated with our novel fractal interpolation scheme.

  1. Converging or Crossing Curves: Untie the Gordian Knot or Cut it? Appropriate Statistics for Non-Proportional Hazards in Decitabine DACO-016 Study (AML).

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tomeczkowski, Jörg; Lange, Ansgar; Güntert, Andreas; Thilakarathne, Pushpike; Diels, Joris; Xiu, Liang; De Porre, Peter; Tapprich, Christoph

    2015-09-01

    Among patients with acute myeloid leukemia (AML), the DACO-016 randomized study showed reduction in mortality for decitabine [Dacogen(®) (DAC), Eisai Inc., Woodcliff Lake, NJ, USA] compared with treatment choice (TC): at primary analysis the hazard ratio (HR) was 0.85 (95% confidence interval 0.69-1.04; stratified log-rank P = 0.108). With two interim analyses, two-sided alpha was adjusted to 0.0462. With 1-year additional follow-up the HR reached 0.82 (nominal P = 0.0373). These data resulted in approval of DAC in the European Union, though not in the United States. Though pre-specified, the log-rank test could be considered not optimal to assess the observed survival difference because of the non-proportional hazard nature of the survival curves. We applied the Wilcoxon test as a sensitivity analysis. Patients were randomized to DAC (N = 242) or TC (N = 243). One-hundred and eight (44.4%) patients in the TC arm and 91 (37.6%) patients in the DAC arm selectively crossed over to subsequent disease modifying therapies at progression, which might impact the survival beyond the median with resultant converging curves (and disproportional hazards). The stratified Wilcoxon test showed a significant improvement in median (CI 95%) overall survival with DAC [7.7 (6.2; 9.2) months] versus TC [5.0 (4.3; 6.3) months; P = 0.0458]. Wilcoxon test indicated significant increase in survival for DAC versus TC compared to log-rank test. Janssen-Cilag GmbH.

  2. Part 5: Receiver Operating Characteristic Curve and Area under the Curve

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Saeed Safari

    2016-04-01

    Full Text Available Multiple diagnostic tools are used by emergency physicians,every day. In addition, new tools are evaluated to obtainmore accurate methods and reduce time or cost of conventionalones. In the previous parts of this educationalseries, we described diagnostic performance characteristicsof diagnostic tests including sensitivity, specificity, positiveand negative predictive values, and likelihood ratios. Thereceiver operating characteristics (ROC curve is a graphicalpresentation of screening characteristics. ROC curve is usedto determine the best cutoff point and compare two or moretests or observers by measuring the area under the curve(AUC. In this part of our educational series, we explain ROCcurve and two methods to determine the best cutoff value.

  3. Nivolumab versus Cabozantinib: Comparing Overall Survival in Metastatic Renal Cell Carcinoma.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Witold Wiecek

    Full Text Available Renal-cell carcinoma (RCC affects over 330,000 new patients every year, of whom 1/3 present with metastatic RCC (mRCC at diagnosis. Most mRCC patients treated with a first-line agent relapse within 1 year and need second-line therapy. The present study aims to compare overall survival (OS between nivolumab and cabozantinib from two recent pivotal studies comparing, respectively, each one of the two emerging treatments against everolimus in patients who relapse following first-line treatment. Comparison is traditionally carried out using the Bucher method, which assumes proportional hazard. Since OS curves intersected in one of the pivotal studies, models not assuming proportional hazards were also considered to refine the comparison. Four Bayesian parametric survival network meta-analysis models were implemented on overall survival (OS data digitized from the Kaplan-Meier curves reported in the studies. Three models allowing hazard ratios (HR to vary over time were assessed against a fixed-HR model. The Bucher method favored cabozantinib, with a fixed HR for OS vs. nivolumab of 1.09 (95% confidence interval: [0.77, 1.54]. However, all models with time-varying HR showed better fits than the fixed-HR model. The log-logistic model fitted the data best, exhibiting a HR for OS initially favoring cabozantinib, the trend inverting to favor nivolumab after month 5 (95% credible interval <1 from 10 months. The initial probability of cabozantinib conferring superior OS was 54%, falling to 41.5% by month 24. Numerical differences in study-adjusted OS estimates between the two treatments remained small. This study evidences that HR for OS of nivolumab vs. cabozantinib varies over time, favoring cabozantinib in the first months of treatment but nivolumab afterwards, a possible indication that patients with poor prognosis benefit more from cabozantinib in terms of survival, nivolumab benefiting patients with better prognosis. More evidence, including real

  4. The Component And System Reliability Analysis Of Multipurpose Reactor G.A. Subway's Based On The Failure Rate Curve

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sriyono; Ismu Wahyono, Puradwi; Mulyanto, Dwijo; Kusmono, Siamet

    2001-01-01

    The main component of Multipurpose G.A.Siwabessy had been analyzed by its failure rate curve. The main component ha'..e been analyzed namely, the pump of ''Fuel Storage Pool Purification System'' (AK-AP), ''Primary Cooling System'' (JE01-AP), ''Primary Pool Purification System'' (KBE01-AP), ''Warm Layer System'' (KBE02-AP), ''Cooling Tower'' (PA/D-AH), ''Secondary Cooling System'', and Diesel (BRV). The Failure Rate Curve is made by component database that was taken from 'log book' operation of RSG GAS. The total operation of that curve is 2500 hours. From that curve it concluded that the failure rate of components form of bathtub curve. The maintenance processing causes the curve anomaly

  5. Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency Curves for Infrastructure Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    2016-03-01

    each IDF curve and subsequently used to force a calibrated and validated precipitation - runoff model. Probability-based, risk-informed hydrologic...ERDC/CHL CHETN-X-2 March 2016 Approved for public release; distribution is unlimited. Bayesian Inference of Nonstationary Precipitation Intensity...based means by which to develop local precipitation Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves using historical rainfall time series data collected for

  6. Signature Curves Statistics of DNA Supercoils

    OpenAIRE

    Shakiban, Cheri; Lloyd, Peter

    2004-01-01

    In this paper we describe the Euclidean signature curves for two dimensional closed curves in the plane and their generalization to closed space curves. The focus will be on discrete numerical methods for approximating such curves. Further we will apply these numerical methods to plot the signature curves related to three-dimensional simulated DNA supercoils. Our primary focus will be on statistical analysis of the data generated for the signature curves of the supercoils. We will try to esta...

  7. Development of p-y curves of laterally loaded piles in cohesionless soil.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khari, Mahdy; Kassim, Khairul Anuar; Adnan, Azlan

    2014-01-01

    The research on damages of structures that are supported by deep foundations has been quite intensive in the past decade. Kinematic interaction in soil-pile interaction is evaluated based on the p-y curve approach. Existing p-y curves have considered the effects of relative density on soil-pile interaction in sandy soil. The roughness influence of the surface wall pile on p-y curves has not been emphasized sufficiently. The presented study was performed to develop a series of p-y curves for single piles through comprehensive experimental investigations. Modification factors were studied, namely, the effects of relative density and roughness of the wall surface of pile. The model tests were subjected to lateral load in Johor Bahru sand. The new p-y curves were evaluated based on the experimental data and were compared to the existing p-y curves. The soil-pile reaction for various relative density (from 30% to 75%) was increased in the range of 40-95% for a smooth pile at a small displacement and 90% at a large displacement. For rough pile, the ratio of dense to loose relative density soil-pile reaction was from 2.0 to 3.0 at a small to large displacement. Direct comparison of the developed p-y curve shows significant differences in the magnitude and shapes with the existing load-transfer curves. Good comparison with the experimental and design studies demonstrates the multidisciplinary applications of the present method.

  8. Development of p-y Curves of Laterally Loaded Piles in Cohesionless Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Khari, Mahdy; Kassim, Khairul Anuar; Adnan, Azlan

    2014-01-01

    The research on damages of structures that are supported by deep foundations has been quite intensive in the past decade. Kinematic interaction in soil-pile interaction is evaluated based on the p-y curve approach. Existing p-y curves have considered the effects of relative density on soil-pile interaction in sandy soil. The roughness influence of the surface wall pile on p-y curves has not been emphasized sufficiently. The presented study was performed to develop a series of p-y curves for single piles through comprehensive experimental investigations. Modification factors were studied, namely, the effects of relative density and roughness of the wall surface of pile. The model tests were subjected to lateral load in Johor Bahru sand. The new p-y curves were evaluated based on the experimental data and were compared to the existing p-y curves. The soil-pile reaction for various relative density (from 30% to 75%) was increased in the range of 40–95% for a smooth pile at a small displacement and 90% at a large displacement. For rough pile, the ratio of dense to loose relative density soil-pile reaction was from 2.0 to 3.0 at a small to large displacement. Direct comparison of the developed p-y curve shows significant differences in the magnitude and shapes with the existing load-transfer curves. Good comparison with the experimental and design studies demonstrates the multidisciplinary applications of the present method. PMID:24574932

  9. Development of p-y Curves of Laterally Loaded Piles in Cohesionless Soil

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mahdy Khari

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available The research on damages of structures that are supported by deep foundations has been quite intensive in the past decade. Kinematic interaction in soil-pile interaction is evaluated based on the p-y curve approach. Existing p-y curves have considered the effects of relative density on soil-pile interaction in sandy soil. The roughness influence of the surface wall pile on p-y curves has not been emphasized sufficiently. The presented study was performed to develop a series of p-y curves for single piles through comprehensive experimental investigations. Modification factors were studied, namely, the effects of relative density and roughness of the wall surface of pile. The model tests were subjected to lateral load in Johor Bahru sand. The new p-y curves were evaluated based on the experimental data and were compared to the existing p-y curves. The soil-pile reaction for various relative density (from 30% to 75% was increased in the range of 40–95% for a smooth pile at a small displacement and 90% at a large displacement. For rough pile, the ratio of dense to loose relative density soil-pile reaction was from 2.0 to 3.0 at a small to large displacement. Direct comparison of the developed p-y curve shows significant differences in the magnitude and shapes with the existing load-transfer curves. Good comparison with the experimental and design studies demonstrates the multidisciplinary applications of the present method.

  10. Comparison of colorectal and gastric cancer: Survival and prognostic factors

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Moghimi-Dehkordi, Bijan; Safaee, Azadeh; Zali, Mohammad R

    2009-01-01

    Gastric and colorectal cancers are the most common gastrointestinal malignancies in Iran. We aim to compare the survival rates and prognostic factors between these two cancers. We studied 1873 patients with either gastric or colorectal cancer who were registered in one referral cancer registry center in Tehran, Iran. All patients were followed from their time of diagnosis until December 2006 (as failure time). Survival curves were calculated according to the Kaplan-Meier Method and compared by the Log-rank test. Multivariate analysis of prognostic factors was carried out using the Cox proportional hazard model. Of 1873 patients, there were 746 with gastric cancer and 1138 with colorectal cancer. According to the Kaplan-Meier method 1, 3, 5, and 7-year survival rates were 71.2, 37.8, 25.3, and 19.5%, respectively, in gastric cancer patients and 91.1, 73.1, 61, and 54.9%, respectively, in patients with colorectal cancer. Also, univariate analysis showed that age at diagnosis, sex, grade of tumor, and distant metastasis were of prognostic significance in both cancers ( P < 0.0001). However, in multivariate analysis, only distant metastasis in colorectal cancer and age at diagnosis, grade of tumor, and distant metastasis in colorectal cancer were identified as independent prognostic factors influencing survival. According to our findings, survival is significantly related to histological differentiation of tumor and distant metastasis in colorectal cancer patients and only to distant metastasis in gastric cancer patients. (author)

  11. Implementation of the Master Curve method in ProSACC

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Feilitzen, Carl von; Sattari-Far, Iradj [Inspecta Technology AB, Stockholm (Sweden)

    2012-03-15

    Cleavage fracture toughness data display normally large amount of statistical scatter in the transition region. The cleavage toughness data in this region is specimen size-dependent, and should be treated statistically rather than deterministically. Master Curve methodology is a procedure for mechanical testing and statistical analysis of fracture toughness of ferritic steels in the transition region. The methodology accounts for temperature and size dependence of fracture toughness. Using the Master Curve methodology for evaluation of the fracture toughness in the transition region releases the overconservatism that has been observed in using the ASME-KIC curve. One main advantage of using the Master Curve methodology is possibility to use small Charpy-size specimens to determine fracture toughness. Detailed description of the Master Curve methodology is given by Sattari-Far and Wallin [2005). ProSACC is a suitable program in using for structural integrity assessments of components containing crack like defects and for defect tolerance analysis. The program gives possibilities to conduct assessments based on deterministic or probabilistic grounds. The method utilized in ProSACC is based on the R6-method developed at Nuclear Electric plc, Milne et al [1988]. The basic assumption in this method is that fracture in a cracked body can be described by two parameters Kr and Lr. The parameter Kr is the ratio between the stress intensity factor and the fracture toughness of the material. The parameter Lr is the ratio between applied load and the plastic limit load of the structure. The ProSACC assessment results are therefore highly dependent on the applied fracture toughness value in the assessment. In this work, the main options of the Master Curve methodology are implemented in the ProSACC program. Different options in evaluating Master Curve fracture toughness from standard fracture toughness testing data or impact testing data are considered. In addition, the

  12. Implementation of the Master Curve method in ProSACC

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Feilitzen, Carl von; Sattari-Far, Iradj

    2012-03-01

    Cleavage fracture toughness data display normally large amount of statistical scatter in the transition region. The cleavage toughness data in this region is specimen size-dependent, and should be treated statistically rather than deterministically. Master Curve methodology is a procedure for mechanical testing and statistical analysis of fracture toughness of ferritic steels in the transition region. The methodology accounts for temperature and size dependence of fracture toughness. Using the Master Curve methodology for evaluation of the fracture toughness in the transition region releases the overconservatism that has been observed in using the ASME-KIC curve. One main advantage of using the Master Curve methodology is possibility to use small Charpy-size specimens to determine fracture toughness. Detailed description of the Master Curve methodology is given by Sattari-Far and Wallin [2005). ProSACC is a suitable program in using for structural integrity assessments of components containing crack like defects and for defect tolerance analysis. The program gives possibilities to conduct assessments based on deterministic or probabilistic grounds. The method utilized in ProSACC is based on the R6-method developed at Nuclear Electric plc, Milne et al [1988]. The basic assumption in this method is that fracture in a cracked body can be described by two parameters Kr and Lr. The parameter Kr is the ratio between the stress intensity factor and the fracture toughness of the material. The parameter Lr is the ratio between applied load and the plastic limit load of the structure. The ProSACC assessment results are therefore highly dependent on the applied fracture toughness value in the assessment. In this work, the main options of the Master Curve methodology are implemented in the ProSACC program. Different options in evaluating Master Curve fracture toughness from standard fracture toughness testing data or impact testing data are considered. In addition, the

  13. Tanacetum parthenium leaf extract mediated survival protection in lethally irradiated Swiss albino mice

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shetty, Prashanth; Pooja, S.; Suchetha Kumari, N.; Shetty, Jayaram; Peter, Alex John; Jose, Jerish M.

    2016-01-01

    Search for less-toxic radioprotectors has spurred interest in the development of natural products. In Ayurveda, the traditional medicine, Tanacetum species have been used to treat ailments since ancient times throughout the world. Effects of the administration of different concentrations of Tanacetum parthenium leaf aqueous extract (TPLA), Tanacetum parthenium leaf ethanolic extract (TPLE) were investigated in Swiss albino mice. Mice (20-25 g) were randomly divided into 8 groups of ten animals each. The control group and the radiation group were treated daily with oral administration of saline for 15 days. Each subgroups of TPLA and TPLE were treated with doses of 50, 100 and 250 mg/kg daily for 15 days. On the 15th day, all were irradiated with 10 Gy whole body irradiation. Survival was observed daily up to 30th post-irradiation day. Data were analysed using the Kaplan-Meier survival curves. The significance difference in survival between control, radiation and treatment groups were observed (P < 0.001). Current studies revealed the protective effect of Tanacetum parthenium rendering high survivability in lethally irradiated mice. (author)

  14. Photoelectic BV Light Curves of Algol and the Interpretations of the Light Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ho-Il Kim

    1985-06-01

    Full Text Available Standardized B and V photoelectric light curves of Algol are made with the observations obtained during 1982-84 with the 40-cm and the 61-cm reflectors of Yonsei University Observatory. These light curves show asymmetry between ascending and descending shoulders. The ascending shoulder is 0.02 mag brighter than descending shoulder in V light curve and 0.03 mag in B light curve. These asymmetric light curves are interpreted as the result of inhomogeneous energy distribution on the surface of one star of the eclipsing pair rather than the result of gaseous stream flowing from KOIV to B8V star. The 180-year periodicity, so called great inequality, are most likely the result proposed by Kim et al. (1983 that the abrupt and discrete mass losses of cooler component may be the cause of this orbital change. The amount of mass loss deduced from these discrete period changes turned out to be of the order of 10^(-6 - 10^(-5 Msolar.

  15. A Journey Between Two Curves

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sergey A. Cherkis

    2007-03-01

    Full Text Available A typical solution of an integrable system is described in terms of a holomorphic curve and a line bundle over it. The curve provides the action variables while the time evolution is a linear flow on the curve's Jacobian. Even though the system of Nahm equations is closely related to the Hitchin system, the curves appearing in these two cases have very different nature. The former can be described in terms of some classical scattering problem while the latter provides a solution to some Seiberg-Witten gauge theory. This note identifies the setup in which one can formulate the question of relating the two curves.

  16. Dose rate effects on survival of two insect species which commonly infest stored corn

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Adem, E.; Uribe, R.M.; Watters, F.L.

    1979-01-01

    A study of the dose rate effects on survival of two species of insects which commonly infest commercial maize in Mexico was undertaken using 60 Co γ radiation and 1.0 MeV electrons, to determine whether an optimum dose rate exists for the irradiation of grain infested with these insects. Experiments have shown that the effectiveness of γ and electron irradiation were not influenced by dose rates from 10 to 120 Gy/min for 60 Co and 35 to 300 Gy/min for electrons when the insects were irradiated at 2500 Gy. Survival curves for each species are presented for both types of radiation. (author)

  17. Quantifying and Reducing Curve-Fitting Uncertainty in Isc

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Campanelli, Mark; Duck, Benjamin; Emery, Keith

    2015-06-14

    Current-voltage (I-V) curve measurements of photovoltaic (PV) devices are used to determine performance parameters and to establish traceable calibration chains. Measurement standards specify localized curve fitting methods, e.g., straight-line interpolation/extrapolation of the I-V curve points near short-circuit current, Isc. By considering such fits as statistical linear regressions, uncertainties in the performance parameters are readily quantified. However, the legitimacy of such a computed uncertainty requires that the model be a valid (local) representation of the I-V curve and that the noise be sufficiently well characterized. Using more data points often has the advantage of lowering the uncertainty. However, more data points can make the uncertainty in the fit arbitrarily small, and this fit uncertainty misses the dominant residual uncertainty due to so-called model discrepancy. Using objective Bayesian linear regression for straight-line fits for Isc, we investigate an evidence-based method to automatically choose data windows of I-V points with reduced model discrepancy. We also investigate noise effects. Uncertainties, aligned with the Guide to the Expression of Uncertainty in Measurement (GUM), are quantified throughout.

  18. Diagnosis of the σ-, π- and (σ+π-Aromaticity by the Shape of the NICSzz-Scan Curves and Symmetry-Based Selection Rules

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Constantinos A. Tsipis

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available The NICSzz-scan curves of aromatic organic, inorganic and “all-metal” molecules in conjunction with symmetry-based selection rules provide efficient diagnostic tools of the σ-, π- and/or double (σ + π-aromaticity. The NICSzz-scan curves of σ-aromatic molecules are symmetric around the z-axis, having half-band widths approximately less than 3 Å with the induced diatropic ring current arising from Tx,y-allowed transitions involving exclusively σ-type molecular orbitals. Broad NICSzz-scan curves (half-band width approximately higher than 3 Å characterize double (σ + π-aromaticity, the chief contribution to the induced diatropic ring current arising from Tx,y-allowed transitions involving both σ- and π-type molecular orbitals. NICSzz-scan curves exhibiting two maxima at a certain distance above and below the molecular plane are typical for (σ + π-aromatics where the π-diatropic ring current overwhelms the σ-type one. In the absence of any contribution from the σ-diatropic ring current, the NICSzz(0 value is close to zero and the molecule exhibits pure π-aromaticity.

  19. Prediction of 5-year overall survival in cervical cancer patients treated with radical hysterectomy using computational intelligence methods.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Obrzut, Bogdan; Kusy, Maciej; Semczuk, Andrzej; Obrzut, Marzanna; Kluska, Jacek

    2017-12-12

    Computational intelligence methods, including non-linear classification algorithms, can be used in medical research and practice as a decision making tool. This study aimed to evaluate the usefulness of artificial intelligence models for 5-year overall survival prediction in patients with cervical cancer treated by radical hysterectomy. The data set was collected from 102 patients with cervical cancer FIGO stage IA2-IIB, that underwent primary surgical treatment. Twenty-three demographic, tumor-related parameters and selected perioperative data of each patient were collected. The simulations involved six computational intelligence methods: the probabilistic neural network (PNN), multilayer perceptron network, gene expression programming classifier, support vector machines algorithm, radial basis function neural network and k-Means algorithm. The prediction ability of the models was determined based on the accuracy, sensitivity, specificity, as well as the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve. The results of the computational intelligence methods were compared with the results of linear regression analysis as a reference model. The best results were obtained by the PNN model. This neural network provided very high prediction ability with an accuracy of 0.892 and sensitivity of 0.975. The area under the receiver operating characteristics curve of PNN was also high, 0.818. The outcomes obtained by other classifiers were markedly worse. The PNN model is an effective tool for predicting 5-year overall survival in cervical cancer patients treated with radical hysterectomy.

  20. Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

    2018-01-01

    Abstract Objective To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Design Population based cohort study. Setting England. Population More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Main outcome measures Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. Results One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Conclusions Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. PMID:29540358

  1. An Enhanced Biometric Based Authentication with Key-Agreement Protocol for Multi-Server Architecture Based on Elliptic Curve Cryptography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reddy, Alavalapati Goutham; Das, Ashok Kumar; Odelu, Vanga; Yoo, Kee-Young

    2016-01-01

    Biometric based authentication protocols for multi-server architectures have gained momentum in recent times due to advancements in wireless technologies and associated constraints. Lu et al. recently proposed a robust biometric based authentication with key agreement protocol for a multi-server environment using smart cards. They claimed that their protocol is efficient and resistant to prominent security attacks. The careful investigation of this paper proves that Lu et al.’s protocol does not provide user anonymity, perfect forward secrecy and is susceptible to server and user impersonation attacks, man-in-middle attacks and clock synchronization problems. In addition, this paper proposes an enhanced biometric based authentication with key-agreement protocol for multi-server architecture based on elliptic curve cryptography using smartcards. We proved that the proposed protocol achieves mutual authentication using Burrows-Abadi-Needham (BAN) logic. The formal security of the proposed protocol is verified using the AVISPA (Automated Validation of Internet Security Protocols and Applications) tool to show that our protocol can withstand active and passive attacks. The formal and informal security analyses and performance analysis demonstrates that the proposed protocol is robust and efficient compared to Lu et al.’s protocol and existing similar protocols. PMID:27163786

  2. An Enhanced Biometric Based Authentication with Key-Agreement Protocol for Multi-Server Architecture Based on Elliptic Curve Cryptography.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Alavalapati Goutham Reddy

    Full Text Available Biometric based authentication protocols for multi-server architectures have gained momentum in recent times due to advancements in wireless technologies and associated constraints. Lu et al. recently proposed a robust biometric based authentication with key agreement protocol for a multi-server environment using smart cards. They claimed that their protocol is efficient and resistant to prominent security attacks. The careful investigation of this paper proves that Lu et al.'s protocol does not provide user anonymity, perfect forward secrecy and is susceptible to server and user impersonation attacks, man-in-middle attacks and clock synchronization problems. In addition, this paper proposes an enhanced biometric based authentication with key-agreement protocol for multi-server architecture based on elliptic curve cryptography using smartcards. We proved that the proposed protocol achieves mutual authentication using Burrows-Abadi-Needham (BAN logic. The formal security of the proposed protocol is verified using the AVISPA (Automated Validation of Internet Security Protocols and Applications tool to show that our protocol can withstand active and passive attacks. The formal and informal security analyses and performance analysis demonstrates that the proposed protocol is robust and efficient compared to Lu et al.'s protocol and existing similar protocols.

  3. Bond yield curve construction

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kožul Nataša

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available In the broadest sense, yield curve indicates the market's view of the evolution of interest rates over time. However, given that cost of borrowing it closely linked to creditworthiness (ability to repay, different yield curves will apply to different currencies, market sectors, or even individual issuers. As government borrowing is indicative of interest rate levels available to other market players in a particular country, and considering that bond issuance still remains the dominant form of sovereign debt, this paper describes yield curve construction using bonds. The relationship between zero-coupon yield, par yield and yield to maturity is given and their usage in determining curve discount factors is described. Their usage in deriving forward rates and pricing related derivative instruments is also discussed.

  4. Curve Digitizer – A software for multiple curves digitizing

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Florentin ŞPERLEA

    2010-06-01

    Full Text Available The Curve Digitizer is software that extracts data from an image file representing a graphicand returns them as pairs of numbers which can then be used for further analysis and applications.Numbers can be read on a computer screen stored in files or copied on paper. The final result is adata set that can be used with other tools such as MSEXCEL. Curve Digitizer provides a useful toolfor any researcher or engineer interested in quantifying the data displayed graphically. The image filecan be obtained by scanning a document

  5. Strong laws for generalized absolute Lorenz curves when data are stationary and ergodic sequences

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    R. Helmers (Roelof); R. Zitikis

    2004-01-01

    textabstractWe consider generalized absolute Lorenz curves that include, as special cases, classical and generalized L - statistics as well as absolute or, in other words, generalized Lorenz curves. The curves are based on strictly stationary and ergodic sequences of random variables. Most of the

  6. Aspects of Pairing Based Cryptography on Jacobians of Genus Two Curves

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ravnshøj, Christian Robenhagen

    The thesis concerns properties of Jacobians of genus two curves defined over a finite field. Such Jacobians have a wide range of applications in data security; e.g. netbanking and digital signature. New properties of the Jacobians are proved; here, a description of the embedding of -torsion point...

  7. Conditional Melanoma Cancer Survival in the United States

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Ray M. Merrill

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available Beyond relative survival, which indicates the likelihood that patients will not die from causes associated with their cancer, conditional relative survival probabilities provide further useful prognostic information to cancer patients, tailored to the time already survived from diagnosis. This study presents conditional relative survival for melanoma patients in the United States, diagnosed during 2000–2008 and followed through 2012. Analyses are based on 62,803 male and 50,261 female cases in population-based cancer registries in the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results Program of the National Cancer Institute. Five-year relative survival estimates are presented for melanoma patients who have already survived one, two, three, four, or five years after the initial diagnosis. Five- and ten-year relative survival decreases with age, stage at diagnosis, and is lower among males, Blacks, and Hispanics. Five-year conditional relative survival improves with each year already survived. The potential for improvement in five-year conditional relative survival is greatest for older age, males, Blacks, Hispanics, and in later staged cases. For local disease, five-year conditional relative survival was significantly lower in ages greater than 65 years and in Blacks. It was significantly higher in females, non-Hispanics, and married individuals. Age had a greater inverse relationship with five-year survival in later staged disease. A similar result occurred for females and married individuals. In contrast, non-Hispanics had better five-year survival if diagnosed with local or regional disease, but not distant disease.

  8. IDF-curves for precipitation In Belgium

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohymont, Bernard; Demarde, Gaston R.

    2004-01-01

    The Intensity-Duration-Frequency (IDF) curves for precipitation constitute a relationship between the intensity, the duration and the frequency of rainfall amounts. The intensity of precipitation is expressed in mm/h, the duration or aggregation time is the length of the interval considered while the frequency stands for the probability of occurrence of the event. IDF-curves constitute a classical and useful tool that is primarily used to dimension hydraulic structures in general, as e.g., sewer systems and which are consequently used to assess the risk of inundation. In this presentation, the IDF relation for precipitation is studied for different locations in Belgium. These locations correspond to two long-term, high-quality precipitation networks of the RMIB: (a) the daily precipitation depths of the climatological network (more than 200 stations, 1951-2001 baseline period); (b) the high-frequency 10-minutes precipitation depths of the hydro meteorological network (more than 30 stations, 15 to 33 years baseline period). For the station of Uccle, an uninterrupted time-series of more than one hundred years of 10-minutes rainfall data is available. The proposed technique for assessing the curves is based on maximum annual values of precipitation. A new analytical formula for the IDF-curves was developed such that these curves stay valid for aggregation times ranging from 10 minutes to 30 days (when fitted with appropriate data). Moreover, all parameters of this formula have physical dimensions. Finally, adequate spatial interpolation techniques are used to provide nationwide extreme values precipitation depths for short- to long-term durations With a given return period. These values are estimated on the grid points of the Belgian ALADIN-domain used in the operational weather forecasts at the RMIB.(Author)

  9. Interpolating Spline Curve-Based Perceptual Encryption for 3D Printing Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Giao N. Pham

    2018-02-01

    Full Text Available With the development of 3D printing technology, 3D printing has recently been applied to many areas of life including healthcare and the automotive industry. Due to the benefit of 3D printing, 3D printing models are often attacked by hackers and distributed without agreement from the original providers. Furthermore, certain special models and anti-weapon models in 3D printing must be protected against unauthorized users. Therefore, in order to prevent attacks and illegal copying and to ensure that all access is authorized, 3D printing models should be encrypted before being transmitted and stored. A novel perceptual encryption algorithm for 3D printing models for secure storage and transmission is presented in this paper. A facet of 3D printing model is extracted to interpolate a spline curve of degree 2 in three-dimensional space that is determined by three control points, the curvature coefficients of degree 2, and an interpolating vector. Three control points, the curvature coefficients, and interpolating vector of the spline curve of degree 2 are encrypted by a secret key. The encrypted features of the spline curve are then used to obtain the encrypted 3D printing model by inverse interpolation and geometric distortion. The results of experiments and evaluations prove that the entire 3D triangle model is altered and deformed after the perceptual encryption process. The proposed algorithm is responsive to the various formats of 3D printing models. The results of the perceptual encryption process is superior to those of previous methods. The proposed algorithm also provides a better method and more security than previous methods.

  10. NTCP modelling of lung toxicity after SBRT comparing the universal survival curve and the linear quadratic model for fractionation correction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Wennberg, Berit M.; Baumann, Pia; Gagliardi, Giovanna

    2011-01-01

    Background. In SBRT of lung tumours no established relationship between dose-volume parameters and the incidence of lung toxicity is found. The aim of this study is to compare the LQ model and the universal survival curve (USC) to calculate biologically equivalent doses in SBRT to see if this will improve knowledge on this relationship. Material and methods. Toxicity data on radiation pneumonitis grade 2 or more (RP2+) from 57 patients were used, 10.5% were diagnosed with RP2+. The lung DVHs were corrected for fractionation (LQ and USC) and analysed with the Lyman- Kutcher-Burman (LKB) model. In the LQ-correction α/β = 3 Gy was used and the USC parameters used were: α/β = 3 Gy, D 0 = 1.0 Gy, n = 10, α 0.206 Gy-1 and d T = 5.8 Gy. In order to understand the relative contribution of different dose levels to the calculated NTCP the concept of fractional NTCP was used. This might give an insight to the questions of whether 'high doses to small volumes' or 'low doses to large volumes' are most important for lung toxicity. Results and Discussion. NTCP analysis with the LKB-model using parameters m = 0.4, D50 = 30 Gy resulted for the volume dependence parameter (n) with LQ correction n = 0.87 and with USC correction n = 0.71. Using parameters m = 0.3, D 50 = 20 Gy n = 0.93 with LQ correction and n 0.83 with USC correction. In SBRT of lung tumours, NTCP modelling of lung toxicity comparing models (LQ,USC) for fractionation correction, shows that low dose contribute less and high dose more to the NTCP when using the USC-model. Comparing NTCP modelling of SBRT data and data from breast cancer, lung cancer and whole lung irradiation implies that the response of the lung is treatment specific. More data are however needed in order to have a more reliable modelling

  11. Optimization of ISOL targets based on Monte-Carlo simulations of ion release curves

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mustapha, B.; Nolen, J.A.

    2003-01-01

    A detailed model for simulating release curves from ISOL targets has been developed. The full 3D geometry is implemented using Geant-4. Produced particles are followed individually from production to release. The delay time is computed event by event. All processes involved: diffusion, effusion and decay are included to obtain the overall release curve. By fitting to the experimental data, important parameters of the release process (diffusion coefficient, sticking time, ...) are extracted. They can be used to improve the efficiency of existing targets and design new ones more suitable to produce beams of rare isotopes

  12. Optimization of ISOL targets based on Monte-Carlo simulations of ion release curves

    CERN Document Server

    Mustapha, B

    2003-01-01

    A detailed model for simulating release curves from ISOL targets has been developed. The full 3D geometry is implemented using Geant-4. Produced particles are followed individually from production to release. The delay time is computed event by event. All processes involved: diffusion, effusion and decay are included to obtain the overall release curve. By fitting to the experimental data, important parameters of the release process (diffusion coefficient, sticking time, ...) are extracted. They can be used to improve the efficiency of existing targets and design new ones more suitable to produce beams of rare isotopes.

  13. Survival of falling robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Jonathan M.; Arkin, Ronald C.

    1992-01-01

    As mobile robots are used in more uncertain and dangerous environments, it will become important to design them so that they can survive falls. In this paper, we examine a number of mechanisms and strategies that animals use to withstand these potentially catastrophic events and extend them to the design of robots. A brief survey of several aspects of how common cats survive falls provides an understanding of the issues involved in preventing traumatic injury during a falling event. After outlining situations in which robots might fall, a number of factors affecting their survival are described. From this background, several robot design guidelines are derived. These include recommendations for the physical structure of the robot as well as requirements for the robot control architecture. A control architecture is proposed based on reactive control techniques and action-oriented perception that is geared to support this form of survival behavior.

  14. Survival of falling robots

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cameron, Jonathan M.; Arkin, Ronald C.

    1992-02-01

    As mobile robots are used in more uncertain and dangerous environments, it will become important to design them so that they can survive falls. In this paper, we examine a number of mechanisms and strategies that animals use to withstand these potentially catastrophic events and extend them to the design of robots. A brief survey of several aspects of how common cats survive falls provides an understanding of the issues involved in preventing traumatic injury during a falling event. After outlining situations in which robots might fall, a number of factors affecting their survival are described. From this background, several robot design guidelines are derived. These include recommendations for the physical structure of the robot as well as requirements for the robot control architecture. A control architecture is proposed based on reactive control techniques and action-oriented perception that is geared to support this form of survival behavior.

  15. Survival of a cohort of women with cervical cancer diagnosed in a Brazilian cancer center

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Claudio Calazan do Carmo

    2011-08-01

    Full Text Available OBJECTIVE: To assess overall survival of women with cervical cancer and describe prognostic factors associated. METHODS: A total of 3,341 cases of invasive cervical cancer diagnosed at the Brazilian Cancer Institute, Rio de Janeiro, southeastern Brazil, between 1999 and 2004 were selected. Clinical and pathological characteristics and follow-up data were collected. There were performed a survival analysis using Kaplan-Meier curves and a multivariate analysis through Cox model. RESULTS: Of all cases analyzed, 68.3% had locally advanced disease at the time of diagnosis. The 5-year overall survival was 48%. After multivariate analysis, tumor staging at diagnosis was the single variable significantly associated with prognosis (p<0.001. There was seen a dose-response relationship between mortality and clinical staging, ranging from 27.8 to 749.6 per 1,000 cases-year in women stage I and IV, respectively. CONCLUSIONS: The study showed that early detection through prevention programs is crucial to increase cervical cancer survival.

  16. Curved Josephson junction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dobrowolski, Tomasz

    2012-01-01

    The constant curvature one and quasi-one dimensional Josephson junction is considered. On the base of Maxwell equations, the sine–Gordon equation that describes an influence of curvature on the kink motion was obtained. It is showed that the method of geometrical reduction of the sine–Gordon model from three to lower dimensional manifold leads to an identical form of the sine–Gordon equation. - Highlights: ► The research on dynamics of the phase in a curved Josephson junction is performed. ► The geometrical reduction is applied to the sine–Gordon model. ► The results of geometrical reduction and the fundamental research are compared.

  17. Estimating reaction rate constants: comparison between traditional curve fitting and curve resolution

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Bijlsma, S.; Boelens, H. F. M.; Hoefsloot, H. C. J.; Smilde, A. K.

    2000-01-01

    A traditional curve fitting (TCF) algorithm is compared with a classical curve resolution (CCR) approach for estimating reaction rate constants from spectral data obtained in time of a chemical reaction. In the TCF algorithm, reaction rate constants an estimated from the absorbance versus time data

  18. A catalog of special plane curves

    CERN Document Server

    Lawrence, J Dennis

    2014-01-01

    Among the largest, finest collections available-illustrated not only once for each curve, but also for various values of any parameters present. Covers general properties of curves and types of derived curves. Curves illustrated by a CalComp digital incremental plotter. 12 illustrations.

  19. Impact of tumour volume on prediction of progression-free survival in sinonasal cancer

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hennersdorf, Florian; Mauz, Paul-Stefan; Adam, Patrick; Welz, Stefan; Sievert, Anne; Ernemann, Ulrike; Bisdas, Sotirios

    2015-01-01

    The present study aimed to analyse potential prognostic factors, with emphasis on tumour volume, in determining progression free survival (PFS) for malignancies of the nasal cavity and the paranasal sinuses. Retrospective analysis of 106 patients with primary sinonasal malignancies treated and followed-up between March 2006 and October 2012. Possible predictive parameters for PFS were entered into univariate and multivariate Cox regression analysis. Kaplan-Meier curve analysis included age, sex, baseline tumour volume (based on MR imaging), histology type, TNM stage and prognostic groups according to the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification. Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis concerning the predictive value of tumour volume for recurrence was also conducted. The main histological subgroup consisted of epithelial tumours (77%). The majority of the patients (68%) showed advanced tumour burden (AJCC stage III–IV). Lymph node involvement was present in 18 cases. The mean tumour volume was 26.6 ± 21.2 cm 3 . The median PFS for all patients was 24.9 months (range: 2.5–84.5 months). The ROC curve analysis for the tumour volume showed 58.1% sensitivity and 75.4% specificity for predicting recurrence. Tumour volume, AJCC staging, T- and N- stage were significant predictors in the univariate analysis. Positive lymph node status and tumour volume remained significant and independent predictors in the multivariate analysis. Radiological tumour volume proofed to be a statistically reliable predictor of PFS. In the multivariate analysis, T-, N- and overall AJCC staging did not show significant prognostic value

  20. Individualized Prediction of Overall Survival After Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Early-Stage Cervical Cancer: A Korean Radiation Oncology Group Study (KROG 13-03)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Hyun Jin; Han, Seungbong; Kim, Young Seok; Nam, Joo-Hyun; Kim, Hak Jae; Kim, Jae Weon; Park, Won; Kim, Byoung-Gie; Kim, Jin Hee; Cha, Soon Do; Kim, Juree; Lee, Ki-Heon; Yoon, Mee Sun

    2013-01-01

    Purpose: A nomogram is a predictive statistical model that generates the continuous probability of a clinical event such as death or recurrence. The aim of the study was to construct a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after postoperative radiation therapy for stage IB to IIA cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The clinical data from 1702 patients with early-stage cervical cancer, treated at 10 participating hospitals from 1990 to 2011, were reviewed to develop a prediction nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables were included and analyzed to formulate the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration power of the model was measured using a concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Results: The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 75.6 months, and the 5-year overall survival probability was 87.1%. The final model was constructed using the following variables: age, number of positive pelvic lymph nodes, parametrial invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of concurrent chemotherapy. The nomogram predicted the 5-year overall survival with a c-index of 0.69, which was superior to the predictive power of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (c-index of 0.54). Conclusions: A survival-predicting nomogram that offers an accurate level of prediction and discrimination was developed based on a large multi-center study. The model may be more useful than the FIGO staging system for counseling individual patients regarding prognosis

  1. Individualized Prediction of Overall Survival After Postoperative Radiation Therapy in Patients With Early-Stage Cervical Cancer: A Korean Radiation Oncology Group Study (KROG 13-03)

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Hyun Jin [Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Han, Seungbong [Department of Clinical Epidemiology and Biostatistics, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Young Seok, E-mail: ysk@amc.seoul.kr [Department of Radiation Oncology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Nam, Joo-Hyun [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Asan Medical Center, University of Ulsan, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hak Jae [Department of Radiation Oncology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jae Weon [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Seoul National University Hospital, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Park, Won [Department of Radiation Oncology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Byoung-Gie [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Samsung Medical Center, Sungkyunkwan University School of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Jin Hee [Department of Radiation Oncology, Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Cha, Soon Do [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Dongsan Medical Center, Keimyung University School of Medicine, Daegu (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Juree [Department of Radiation Oncology, Cheil General Hospital and Women' s Healthcare Center, Kwandong University, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Lee, Ki-Heon [Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Cheil General Hospital and Women' s Healthcare Center, Kwandong University, College of Medicine, Seoul (Korea, Republic of); Yoon, Mee Sun [Department of Radiation Oncology, Chonnam National University Hwasun Hospital, Chonnam National University Medical School, Jeollanam-do (Korea, Republic of); and others

    2013-11-15

    Purpose: A nomogram is a predictive statistical model that generates the continuous probability of a clinical event such as death or recurrence. The aim of the study was to construct a nomogram to predict 5-year overall survival after postoperative radiation therapy for stage IB to IIA cervical cancer. Methods and Materials: The clinical data from 1702 patients with early-stage cervical cancer, treated at 10 participating hospitals from 1990 to 2011, were reviewed to develop a prediction nomogram based on the Cox proportional hazards model. Demographic, clinical, and pathologic variables were included and analyzed to formulate the nomogram. The discrimination and calibration power of the model was measured using a concordance index (c-index) and calibration curve. Results: The median follow-up period for surviving patients was 75.6 months, and the 5-year overall survival probability was 87.1%. The final model was constructed using the following variables: age, number of positive pelvic lymph nodes, parametrial invasion, lymphovascular invasion, and the use of concurrent chemotherapy. The nomogram predicted the 5-year overall survival with a c-index of 0.69, which was superior to the predictive power of the International Federation of Gynecology and Obstetrics (FIGO) staging system (c-index of 0.54). Conclusions: A survival-predicting nomogram that offers an accurate level of prediction and discrimination was developed based on a large multi-center study. The model may be more useful than the FIGO staging system for counseling individual patients regarding prognosis.

  2. Intersection numbers of spectral curves

    CERN Document Server

    Eynard, B.

    2011-01-01

    We compute the symplectic invariants of an arbitrary spectral curve with only 1 branchpoint in terms of integrals of characteristic classes in the moduli space of curves. Our formula associates to any spectral curve, a characteristic class, which is determined by the laplace transform of the spectral curve. This is a hint to the key role of Laplace transform in mirror symmetry. When the spectral curve is y=\\sqrt{x}, the formula gives Kontsevich--Witten intersection numbers, when the spectral curve is chosen to be the Lambert function \\exp{x}=y\\exp{-y}, the formula gives the ELSV formula for Hurwitz numbers, and when one chooses the mirror of C^3 with framing f, i.e. \\exp{-x}=\\exp{-yf}(1-\\exp{-y}), the formula gives the Marino-Vafa formula, i.e. the generating function of Gromov-Witten invariants of C^3. In some sense this formula generalizes ELSV, Marino-Vafa formula, and Mumford formula.

  3. Action of caffeine on the survival of x-irradiated cells

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Busse, P.M.

    1978-01-01

    Post-irradiation treatment of HeLa S3 cells with 1 mM caffeine results in a marked diminution of the surviving fraction as scored by colony formation. The decrease is dose-dependent; the effect of a 24-h post-irradiation treatment of a non-synchronous population with caffeine is to change the terminal slope of the survival curve and its intercept. Do is reduced from 130 to 60 rad; the extrapolation number is increased about twofold. The amount of post-irradiation killing is maximal if cells are exposed to caffeine at a concentration of at least 1 mM for 8 hours; less than 10% of unirradiated cells are killed under these conditions. Dose-response curves were also obtained for synchronous cells at various phases of the cell cycle. Similar results were obtained at all cell ages, but the magnitude of the effect is age-dependent. This age dependence was further explored in experiments in which mitotically collected cells were exposed to 300 or 500 rad doses at 2-hour intervals throughout the cell cycle. Treatment with caffeine for 24 hours after irradiation enhances the killing of cells late in the cycle more than in G 1 . The sensitivities of two other cell lines, CHO and EMT6, also were examined; both are substantially less sensitive to caffeine. The smaller cell-cycle dependence of CHO cells is qualitatively the same as that of HeLa cells

  4. Impact of national cancer policies on cancer survival trends and socioeconomic inequalities in England, 1996-2013: population based study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exarchakou, Aimilia; Rachet, Bernard; Belot, Aurélien; Maringe, Camille; Coleman, Michel P

    2018-03-14

    To assess the effectiveness of the NHS Cancer Plan (2000) and subsequent national cancer policy initiatives in improving cancer survival and reducing socioeconomic inequalities in survival in England. Population based cohort study. England. More than 3.5 million registered patients aged 15-99 with a diagnosis of one of the 24 most common primary, malignant, invasive neoplasms between 1996 and 2013. Age standardised net survival estimates by cancer, sex, year, and deprivation group. These estimates were modelled using regression model with splines to explore changes in the cancer survival trends and in the socioeconomic inequalities in survival. One year net survival improved steadily from 1996 for 26 of 41 sex-cancer combinations studied, and only from 2001 or 2006 for four cancers. Trends in survival accelerated after 2006 for five cancers. The deprivation gap observed for all 41 sex-cancer combinations among patients with a diagnosis in 1996 persisted until 2013. However, the gap slightly decreased for six cancers among men for which one year survival was more than 65% in 1996, and for cervical and uterine cancers, for which survival was more than 75% in 1996. The deprivation gap widened notably for brain tumours in men and for lung cancer in women. Little evidence was found of a direct impact of national cancer strategies on one year survival, and no evidence for a reduction in socioeconomic inequalities in cancer survival. These findings emphasise that socioeconomic inequalities in survival remain a major public health problem for a healthcare system founded on equity. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  5. Placement Design of Changeable Message Signs on Curved Roadways

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhongren Wang, Ph.D. P.E. T.E.

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper presented a fundamental framework for Changeable Message Sign (CMS placement design along roadways with horizontal curves. This analytical framework determines the available distance for motorists to read and react to CMS messages based on CMS character height, driver's cone of vision, CMS pixel's cone of legibility, roadway horizontal curve radius, and CMS lateral and vertical placement. Sample design charts were developed to illustrate how the analytical framework may facilitate CMS placement design.

  6. Elliptic curves for applications (Tutorial)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lange, T.; Bernstein, D.J.; Chatterjee, S.

    2011-01-01

    More than 25 years ago, elliptic curves over finite fields were suggested as a group in which the Discrete Logarithm Problem (DLP) can be hard. Since then many researchers have scrutinized the security of the DLP on elliptic curves with the result that for suitably chosen curves only exponential

  7. Differential geometry and topology of curves

    CERN Document Server

    Animov, Yu

    2001-01-01

    Differential geometry is an actively developing area of modern mathematics. This volume presents a classical approach to the general topics of the geometry of curves, including the theory of curves in n-dimensional Euclidean space. The author investigates problems for special classes of curves and gives the working method used to obtain the conditions for closed polygonal curves. The proof of the Bakel-Werner theorem in conditions of boundedness for curves with periodic curvature and torsion is also presented. This volume also highlights the contributions made by great geometers. past and present, to differential geometry and the topology of curves.

  8. Models of genus one curves

    OpenAIRE

    Sadek, Mohammad

    2010-01-01

    In this thesis we give insight into the minimisation problem of genus one curves defined by equations other than Weierstrass equations. We are interested in genus one curves given as double covers of P1, plane cubics, or complete intersections of two quadrics in P3. By minimising such a curve we mean making the invariants associated to its defining equations as small as possible using a suitable change of coordinates. We study the non-uniqueness of minimisations of the genus one curves des...

  9. Treatment selection in a randomized clinical trial via covariate-specific treatment effect curves.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ma, Yunbei; Zhou, Xiao-Hua

    2017-02-01

    For time-to-event data in a randomized clinical trial, we proposed two new methods for selecting an optimal treatment for a patient based on the covariate-specific treatment effect curve, which is used to represent the clinical utility of a predictive biomarker. To select an optimal treatment for a patient with a specific biomarker value, we proposed pointwise confidence intervals for each covariate-specific treatment effect curve and the difference between covariate-specific treatment effect curves of two treatments. Furthermore, to select an optimal treatment for a future biomarker-defined subpopulation of patients, we proposed confidence bands for each covariate-specific treatment effect curve and the difference between each pair of covariate-specific treatment effect curve over a fixed interval of biomarker values. We constructed the confidence bands based on a resampling technique. We also conducted simulation studies to evaluate finite-sample properties of the proposed estimation methods. Finally, we illustrated the application of the proposed method in a real-world data set.

  10. Representative Stress-Strain Curve by Spherical Indentation on Elastic-Plastic Materials

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Chang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Tensile stress-strain curve of metallic materials can be determined by the representative stress-strain curve from the spherical indentation. Tabor empirically determined the stress constraint factor (stress CF, ψ, and strain constraint factor (strain CF, β, but the choice of value for ψ and β is still under discussion. In this study, a new insight into the relationship between constraint factors of stress and strain is analytically described based on the formation of Tabor’s equation. Experiment tests were performed to evaluate these constraint factors. From the results, representative stress-strain curves using a proposed strain constraint factor can fit better with nominal stress-strain curve than those using Tabor’s constraint factors.

  11. LINS Curve in Romanian Economy

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emilian Dobrescu

    2016-02-01

    Full Text Available The paper presents theoretical considerations and empirical evidence to test the validity of the Laffer in Narrower Sense (LINS curve as a parabola with a maximum. Attention is focused on the so-called legal-effective tax gap (letg. The econometric application is based on statistical data (1990-2013 for Romania as an emerging European economy. Three cointegrating regressions (fully modified least squares, canonical cointegrating regression and dynamic least squares and three algorithms, which are based on instrumental variables (two-stage least squares, generalized method of moments, and limited information maximum likelihood, are involved.

  12. The crime kuznets curve

    OpenAIRE

    Buonanno, Paolo; Fergusson, Leopoldo; Vargas, Juan Fernando

    2014-01-01

    We document the existence of a Crime Kuznets Curve in US states since the 1970s. As income levels have risen, crime has followed an inverted U-shaped pattern, first increasing and then dropping. The Crime Kuznets Curve is not explained by income inequality. In fact, we show that during the sample period inequality has risen monotonically with income, ruling out the traditional Kuznets Curve. Our finding is robust to adding a large set of controls that are used in the literature to explain the...

  13. Developing Novel Reservoir Rule Curves Using Seasonal Inflow Projections

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tseng, Hsin-yi; Tung, Ching-pin

    2015-04-01

    Due to significant seasonal rainfall variations, reservoirs and their flexible operational rules are indispensable to Taiwan. Furthermore, with the intensifying impacts of climate change on extreme climate, the frequency of droughts in Taiwan has been increasing in recent years. Drought is a creeping phenomenon, the slow onset character of drought makes it difficult to detect at an early stage, and causes delays on making the best decision of allocating water. For these reasons, novel reservoir rule curves using projected seasonal streamflow are proposed in this study, which can potentially reduce the adverse effects of drought. This study dedicated establishing new rule curves which consider both current available storage and anticipated monthly inflows with leading time of two months to reduce the risk of water shortage. The monthly inflows are projected based on the seasonal climate forecasts from Central Weather Bureau (CWB), which a weather generation model is used to produce daily weather data for the hydrological component of the GWLF. To incorporate future monthly inflow projections into rule curves, this study designs a decision flow index which is a linear combination of current available storage and inflow projections with leading time of 2 months. By optimizing linear relationship coefficients of decision flow index, the shape of rule curves and the percent of water supply in each zone, the best rule curves to decrease water shortage risk and impacts can be developed. The Shimen Reservoir in the northern Taiwan is used as a case study to demonstrate the proposed method. Existing rule curves (M5 curves) of Shimen Reservoir are compared with two cases of new rule curves, including hindcast simulations and historic seasonal forecasts. The results show new rule curves can decrease the total water shortage ratio, and in addition, it can also allocate shortage amount to preceding months to avoid extreme shortage events. Even though some uncertainties in

  14. PLOTTAB, Curve and Point Plotting with Error Bars

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1999-01-01

    1 - Description of program or function: PLOTTAB is designed to plot any combination of continuous curves and/or discrete points (with associated error bars) using user supplied titles and X and Y axis labels and units. If curves are plotted, the first curve may be used as a standard; the data and the ratio of the data to the standard will be plotted. 2 - Method of solution: PLOTTAB: The program has no idea of what data is being plotted and yet by supplying titles, X and Y axis labels and units the user can produce any number of plots with each plot containing almost any combination of curves and points with each plot properly identified. In order to define a continuous curve between tabulated points, this program must know how to interpolate between points. By input the user may specify either the default option of linear x versus linear y interpolation or alternatively log x and/or log Y interpolation. In all cases, regardless of the interpolation specified, the program will always interpolate the data to the plane of the plot (linear or log x and y plane) in order to present the true variation of the data between tabulated points, based on the user specified interpolation law. Tabulated points should be tabulated at a sufficient number of x values to insure that the difference between the specified interpolation and the 'true' variation of a curve between tabulated values is relatively small. 3 - Restrictions on the complexity of the problem: A combination of up to 30 curves and sets of discrete points may appear on each plot. If the user wishes to use this program to compare different sets of data, all of the data must be in the same units

  15. Thermal effect on water retention curve of bentonite: experiment and thermodynamic modeling

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Qin Bing; Chen Zhenghai; Sun Faxin; Liu Yuemiao; Wang Ju

    2012-01-01

    The thermal effects on water retention curve of GMZ bentonite were investigated experimentally and theoretically. Water retention tests were conducted on GMZ bentonite at five temperatures ranging from 20℃ to 100℃. Test results showed that the water retention capacity and the hysteresis of the water retention curve decreased with increasing temperature, and that the water retention curves at different temperatures were almost parallel to each other. Based on the thermodynamics of sorption, a model was established to describe the temperature influence on the water retention curve. The model was validated by comparing the model predictions and the test results. (authors)

  16. Helping mothers survive bleeding after birth

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Nelissen, Ellen; Ersdal, Hege; Ostergaard, Doris

    2014-01-01

    OBJECTIVE: To evaluate "Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth" (HMS BAB) simulation-based training in a low-resource setting. DESIGN: Educational intervention study. SETTING: Rural referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. POPULATION: Clinicians, nurse-midwives, medical attendants, and ambul......OBJECTIVE: To evaluate "Helping Mothers Survive Bleeding After Birth" (HMS BAB) simulation-based training in a low-resource setting. DESIGN: Educational intervention study. SETTING: Rural referral hospital in Northern Tanzania. POPULATION: Clinicians, nurse-midwives, medical attendants...

  17. Numerical Integration Techniques for Curved-Element Discretizations of Molecule–Solvent Interfaces

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bardhan, Jaydeep P.; Altman, Michael D.; Willis, David J.; Lippow, Shaun M.; Tidor, Bruce; White, Jacob K.

    2012-01-01

    Surface formulations of biophysical modeling problems offer attractive theoretical and computational properties. Numerical simulations based on these formulations usually begin with discretization of the surface under consideration; often, the surface is curved, possessing complicated structure and possibly singularities. Numerical simulations commonly are based on approximate, rather than exact, discretizations of these surfaces. To assess the strength of the dependence of simulation accuracy on the fidelity of surface representation, we have developed methods to model several important surface formulations using exact surface discretizations. Following and refining Zauhar’s work (J. Comp.-Aid. Mol. Des. 9:149-159, 1995), we define two classes of curved elements that can exactly discretize the van der Waals, solvent-accessible, and solvent-excluded (molecular) surfaces. We then present numerical integration techniques that can accurately evaluate nonsingular and singular integrals over these curved surfaces. After validating the exactness of the surface discretizations and demonstrating the correctness of the presented integration methods, we present a set of calculations that compare the accuracy of approximate, planar-triangle-based discretizations and exact, curved-element-based simulations of surface-generalized-Born (sGB), surface-continuum van der Waals (scvdW), and boundary-element method (BEM) electrostatics problems. Results demonstrate that continuum electrostatic calculations with BEM using curved elements, piecewise-constant basis functions, and centroid collocation are nearly ten times more accurate than planartriangle BEM for basis sets of comparable size. The sGB and scvdW calculations give exceptional accuracy even for the coarsest obtainable discretized surfaces. The extra accuracy is attributed to the exact representation of the solute–solvent interface; in contrast, commonly used planar-triangle discretizations can only offer improved

  18. An analysis on the environmental Kuznets curve of Chengdu

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Zijian; Peng, Yue; Zhao, Yue

    2017-12-01

    In this paper based on the environmental and economic data of Chengdu from 2005 to 2014, the measurement models were established to analyze 3 kinds of environmental flow indicators and 4 kinds of environmental stock indicators to obtain their EKC evolution trajectories and characters. The results show that the relationship curve between the discharge of SO2 from industry and the GDP per capita is a positive U shape, just as the curve between discharge of COD from industry and the GDP per person. The relationship curve between the dust discharge from industry and the GDP per capita is an inverted N shape. In the central of the urban the relationship curve between the concentration of SO2 in the air and the GDP per person is a positive U shape. The relationship curves between the concentration of NO2 in the air and the GDP per person, between the concentration of the particulate matters and the GDP per person, and between the concentration of the fallen dusts and the GDP per person are fluctuating. So the EKC curves of the 7 kinds of environmental indicators are not accord with inverted U shape feature. In the development of this urban the environmental problems can’t be resolved only by economic growth. The discharge of industrial pollutants should be controlled to improve the atmospheric environmental quality and reduce the environmental risks.

  19. The shape of dose-effect curves for diploid yeast cells irradiated with ionizing particles

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pohlit, W.

    1975-01-01

    In a cybernetic model for the radiation reactions in eukaryotic cells, after irradiation they are assumed to be in one of three states: (a) viable cells; (b) with repairable damage; and (c) with irreparable damage. Two biological counter reactions with certain time constants can be observed: (i) recovery from sublethal damage; and (ii) repair of potential lethal damage. The shape of the dose-effect curve is influenced in a characteristic way by the different occupation of these states of the cells and by the time constants of the biological counter reactions. The biochemical analysis of the biological counter reactions, recovery and repair, has shown that both are linked together by the energy pool in the cell. In this way changes in the slope of the dose-effect curve due to different metabolic states of the cells can be understood quantitatively. Also the complicated dependence of survival cells on the absorbed dose rate over a wide range can be explained quantitatively. (author)

  20. ROBUST DECLINE CURVE ANALYSIS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sutawanir Darwis

    2012-05-01

    Full Text Available Empirical decline curve analysis of oil production data gives reasonable answer in hyperbolic type curves situations; however the methodology has limitations in fitting real historical production data in present of unusual observations due to the effect of the treatment to the well in order to increase production capacity. The development ofrobust least squares offers new possibilities in better fitting production data using declinecurve analysis by down weighting the unusual observations. This paper proposes a robustleast squares fitting lmRobMM approach to estimate the decline rate of daily production data and compares the results with reservoir simulation results. For case study, we usethe oil production data at TBA Field West Java. The results demonstrated that theapproach is suitable for decline curve fitting and offers a new insight in decline curve analysis in the present of unusual observations.