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Sample records for survey rainfall-runoff simulation

  1. Rainfall-runoff simulation and flood forecasting for Huaihe Basin

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Li Zhijia; Wang Lili; Bao Hongjun; Song Yu; Yu Zhongbo

    2008-01-01

    The main purpose of this study was to forecast the inflow to Hongze Lake using the Xin'anjiang rainfall-runoff model. The upper area of Hongze Lake in the Huaihc Basin was divided into 23 sub-basins, including the surface of Hongze Lake. The influence of reservoirs and gates on flood forecasting was considered in a practical and simple way. With a one-day time step, the linear and non-linear Muskingum method was used for channel flood routing, and the least-square regression model was used for real-time correction in flood forecasting. Representative historical data were collected tor the model calibration. The hydrological model parameters for each sub-basin were calibrated individually, so the parameters of the Xin'anjiang model were different for different sub-basins. This flood forecasting system was used in the real-time simulation of the large flood in 2005 and the results are satisfactory when compared with measured data from the flood.

  2. Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

  3. a High-Performance Method for Simulating Surface Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics Using Particle System

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Fangli; Zhou, Qiming; Li, Qingquan; Wu, Guofeng; Liu, Jun

    2016-06-01

    The simulation of rainfall-runoff process is essential for disaster emergency and sustainable development. One common disadvantage of the existing conceptual hydrological models is that they are highly dependent upon specific spatial-temporal contexts. Meanwhile, due to the inter-dependence of adjacent flow paths, it is still difficult for the RS or GIS supported distributed hydrological models to achieve high-performance application in real world applications. As an attempt to improve the performance efficiencies of those models, this study presents a high-performance rainfall-runoff simulating framework based on the flow path network and a separate particle system. The vector-based flow path lines are topologically linked to constrain the movements of independent rain drop particles. A separate particle system, representing surface runoff, is involved to model the precipitation process and simulate surface flow dynamics. The trajectory of each particle is constrained by the flow path network and can be tracked by concurrent processors in a parallel cluster system. The result of speedup experiment shows that the proposed framework can significantly improve the simulating performance just by adding independent processors. By separating the catchment elements and the accumulated water, this study provides an extensible solution for improving the existing distributed hydrological models. Further, a parallel modeling and simulating platform needs to be developed and validate to be applied in monitoring real world hydrologic processes.

  4. Integration of Volterra model with artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff simulation in forested catchment of northern Iran

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kashani, Mahsa H.; Ghorbani, Mohammad Ali; Dinpashoh, Yagob; Shahmorad, Sedaghat

    2016-09-01

    Rainfall-runoff simulation is an important task in water resources management. In this study, an integrated Volterra model with artificial neural networks (IVANN) was presented to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. The proposed integrated model includes the semi-distributed forms of the Volterra and ANN models which can explore spatial variation in rainfall-runoff process without requiring physical characteristic parameters of the catchments, while taking advantage of the potential of Volterra and ANNs models in nonlinear mapping. The IVANN model was developed using hourly rainfall and runoff data pertaining to thirteen storms to study short-term responses of a forest catchment in northern Iran; and its performance was compared with that of semi-distributed integrated ANN (IANN) model and lumped Volterra model. The Volterra model was applied as a nonlinear model (second-order Volterra (SOV) model) and solved using the ordinary least square (OLS) method. The models performance were evaluated and compared using five performance criteria namely coefficient of efficiency, root mean square error, error of total volume, relative error of peak discharge and error of time for peak to arrive. Results showed that the IVANN model performs well than the other semi-distributed and lumped models to simulate the rainfall-runoff process. Comparing to the integrated models, the lumped SOV model has lower precision to simulate the rainfall-runoff process.

  5. Hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation with BTOPMC model and comparison with Xin'anjiang model

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Hong-jun BAO; Li-li WANG; Zhi-jia LI; Lin-na ZHAO; Guo-ping ZHANG

    2010-01-01

    A grid-based distributed hydrological model, the Block-wise use of TOPMODEL (BTOPMC), which was developed from the original TOPMODEL, was used for hydrological daily rainfall-runoff simulation. In the BTOPMC model, the runoff is explicitly calculated on a cell-by-cell basis, and the Muskingum-Cunge flow concentration method is used. In order to test the model's applicability, the BTOPMC model and the Xin'anjiang model were applied to the simulation of a humid watershed and a semi-humid to semi-arid watershed in China. The model parameters were optimized with the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE-UA) method. Results show that both models can effectively simulate the daily hydrograph in humid watersheds, but that the BTOPMC model performs poorly in semi-humid to semi-arid watersheds. The excess-infiltration mechanism should be incorporated into the BTOPMC model to broaden the model's applicability.

  6. Calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model for flood frequency estimation by continuous simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lamb, Robert

    1999-10-01

    An approach is described to the calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, the Probability Distributed Model (PDM), for estimating flood frequencies at gauged sites by continuous flow simulation. A first step was the estimation of routing store parameters by recession curve analysis. Uniform random sampling was then used to search for parameter sets that produced simulations achieving the best fit to observed, hourly flow data over a 2-year period. Goodness of fit was expressed in terms of four objective functions designed to give different degrees of weight to peaks in flow. Flood frequency results were improved, if necessary, by manual adjustment of parameters, with reference to peaks extracted from the entire hourly flow record. Although the primary aim was to reproduce observed peaks, consideration was also given to finding parameter sets capable of generating a realistic overall characterization of the flow regime. Examples are shown where the calibrated model generated simulations that reproduced well the magnitude and frequency distribution of peak flows. Factors affecting the acceptability of these simulations are discussed. For an example catchment, a sensitivity analysis shows that there may be more than one set of parameter values well suited to the simulation of peak flows.

  7. Simulation of radar rainfall errors and their propagation into rainfall-runoff processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aghakouchak, A.; Habib, E.

    2008-05-01

    Radar rainfall data compared with rain gauge measurements provide higher spatial and temporal resolution. However, radar data obtained form reflectivity patterns are subject to various errors such as errors in Z-R relationship, vertical profile of reflectivity, spatial and temporal sampling, etc. Characterization of such uncertainties in radar data and their effects on hydrologic simulations (e.g., streamflow estimation) is a challenging issue. This study aims to analyze radar rainfall error characteristics empirically to gain information on prosperities of random error representativeness and its temporal and spatial dependency. To empirically analyze error characteristics, high resolution and accurate rain gauge measurements are required. The Goodwin Creek watershed located in the north part of Mississippi is selected for this study due to availability of a dense rain gauge network. A total of 30 rain gauge measurement stations within Goodwin Creak watershed and the NWS Level II radar reflectivity data obtained from the WSR-88dD Memphis radar station with temporal resolution of 5min and spatial resolution of 1 km2 are used in this study. Radar data and rain gauge measurements comparisons are used to estimate overall bias, and statistical characteristics and spatio-temporal dependency of radar rainfall error fields. This information is then used to simulate realizations of radar error patterns with multiple correlated variables using Monte Calro method and the Cholesky decomposition. The generated error fields are then imposed on radar rainfall fields to obtain statistical realizations of input rainfall fields. Each simulated realization is then fed as input to a distributed physically based hydrological model resulting in an ensemble of predicted runoff hydrographs. The study analyzes the propagation of radar errors on the simulation of different rainfall-runoff processes such as streamflow, soil moisture, infiltration, and over-land flooding.

  8. Calibration of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model and flood simulation using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piacentini, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Thual, O.; Coustau, M.; Marchandise, A.

    2010-12-01

    Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for long-term assessment of flash floods or real-time forecasting. This work focuses on the calibration of a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model using data assimilation. The model combines a SCS-derived runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The SCS-derived runoff model is parametrized by the initial water deficit, the discharge coefficient for the soil reservoir and a lagged discharge coefficient. The Lag and Route routing model is parametrized by the velocity of travel and the lag parameter. These parameters are assumed to be constant for a given catchment except for the initial water deficit and the velocity travel that are event-dependent (landuse, soil type and moisture initial conditions). In the present work, a BLUE filtering technique was used to calibrate the initial water deficit and the velocity travel for each flood event assimilating the first available discharge measurements at the catchment outlet. The advantages of the BLUE algorithm are its low computational cost and its convenient implementation, especially in the context of the calibration of a reduced number of parameters. The assimilation algorithm was applied on two Mediterranean catchment areas of different size and dynamics: Gardon d'Anduze and Lez. The Lez catchment, of 114 km2 drainage area, is located upstream Montpellier. It is a karstic catchment mainly affected by floods in autumn during intense rainstorms with short Lag-times and high discharge peaks (up to 480 m3.s-1 in September 2005). The Gardon d'Anduze catchment, mostly granite and schistose, of 545 km2 drainage area, lies over the departements of Lozère and Gard. It is often affected by flash and devasting floods (up to 3000 m3.s-1 in September 2002). The discharge observations at the beginning of the flood event are assimilated so that the BLUE algorithm provides optimal values for the initial water deficit and the

  9. Transport of three veterinary antimicrobials from feedlot pens via simulated rainfall runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sura, Srinivas; Degenhardt, Dani; Cessna, Allan J; Larney, Francis J; Olson, Andrew F; McAllister, Tim A

    2015-07-15

    Veterinary antimicrobials are introduced to wider environments by manure application to agricultural fields or through leaching or runoff from manure storage areas (feedlots, stockpiles, windrows, lagoons). Detected in manure, manure-treated soils, and surface and ground water near intensive cattle feeding operations, there is a concern that environmental contamination by these chemicals may promote the development of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria. Surface runoff and leaching appear to be major transport pathways by which veterinary antimicrobials eventually contaminate surface and ground water, respectively. A study was conducted to investigate the transport of three veterinary antimicrobials (chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, tylosin), commonly used in beef cattle production, in simulated rainfall runoff from feedlot pens. Mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 3.5 times higher in surface material from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Runoff rates and volumetric runoff coefficients were similar across all treatments but both were significantly higher from non-bedding (0.53Lmin(-1); 0.27) than bedding areas (0.40Lmin(-1); 0.19). In keeping with concentrations in pen surface material, mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 2.5 times higher in runoff generated from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Water solubility and sorption coefficient of antimicrobials played a role in their transport in runoff. Estimated amounts of chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, and tylosin that could potentially be transported to the feedlot catch basin during a one in 100-year precipitation event were 1.3 to 3.6ghead(-1), 1.9ghead(-1), and 0.2ghead(-1), respectively. This study demonstrates the magnitude of veterinary antimicrobial transport in feedlot pen runoff and supports the necessity of catch basins for runoff containment within feedlots.

  10. Development of an Integrated Hydrologic Modeling System for Rainfall-Runoff Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lu, B.; Piasecki, M.

    2008-12-01

    This paper aims to present the development of an integrated hydrological model which involves functionalities of digital watershed processing, online data retrieval, hydrologic simulation and post-event analysis. The proposed system is intended to work as a back end to the CUAHSI HIS cyberinfrastructure developments. As a first step into developing this system, a physics-based distributed hydrologic model PIHM (Penn State Integrated Hydrologic Model) is wrapped into OpenMI(Open Modeling Interface and Environment ) environment so as to seamlessly interact with OpenMI compliant meteorological models. The graphical user interface is being developed from the openGIS application called MapWindows which permits functionality expansion through the addition of plug-ins. . Modules required to set up through the GUI workboard include those for retrieving meteorological data from existing database or meteorological prediction models, obtaining geospatial data from the output of digital watershed processing, and importing initial condition and boundary condition. They are connected to the OpenMI compliant PIHM to simulate rainfall-runoff processes and includes a module for automatically displaying output after the simulation. Online databases are accessed through the WaterOneFlow web services, and the retrieved data are either stored in an observation database(OD) following the schema of Observation Data Model(ODM) in case for time series support, or a grid based storage facility which may be a format like netCDF or a grid-based-data database schema . Specific development steps include the creation of a bridge to overcome interoperability issue between PIHM and the ODM, as well as the embedding of TauDEM (Terrain Analysis Using Digital Elevation Models) into the model. This module is responsible for developing watershed and stream network using digital elevation models. Visualizing and editing geospatial data is achieved by the usage of MapWinGIS, an ActiveX control developed

  11. Comparison of recorded rainfall with quantitative precipitation forecast in a rainfall-runoff simulation for the Langat River Basin, Malaysia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Billa, Lawal; Assilzadeh, Hamid; Mansor, Shattri; Mahmud, Ahmed; Ghazali, Abdul

    2011-09-01

    Observed rainfall is used for runoff modeling in flood forecasting where possible, however in cases where the response time of the watershed is too short for flood warning activities, a deterministic quantitative precipitation forecast (QPF) can be used. This is based on a limited-area meteorological model and can provide a forecasting horizon in the order of six hours or less. This study applies the results of a previously developed QPF based on a 1D cloud model using hourly NOAA-AVHRR (Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer) and GMS (Geostationary Meteorological Satellite) datasets. Rainfall intensity values in the range of 3-12 mm/hr were extracted from these datasets based on the relation between cloud top temperature (CTT), cloud reflectance (CTR) and cloud height (CTH) using defined thresholds. The QPF, prepared for the rainstorm event of 27 September to 8 October 2000 was tested for rainfall runoff on the Langat River Basin, Malaysia, using a suitable NAM rainfall-runoff model. The response of the basin both to the rainfall-runoff simulation using the QPF estimate and the recorded observed rainfall is compared here, based on their corresponding discharge hydrographs. The comparison of the QPF and recorded rainfall showed R2 = 0.9028 for the entire basin. The runoff hydrograph for the recorded rainfall in the Kajang sub-catchment showed R2 = 0.9263 between the observed and the simulated, while that of the QPF rainfall was R2 = 0.819. This similarity in runoff suggests there is a high level of accuracy shown in the improved QPF, and that significant improvement of flood forecasting can be achieved through `Nowcasting', thus increasing the response time for flood early warnings.

  12. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a lumped rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, C. C.; Teuling, A. J.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-10-01

    We present the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS), a novel rainfall-runoff model to fill the gap between complex, spatially distributed models which are often used in lowland catchments and simple, parametric (conceptual) models which have mostly been developed for sloping catchments. WALRUS explicitly accounts for processes that are important in lowland areas, notably (1) groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, (2) wetness-dependent flow routes, (3) groundwater-surface water feedbacks and (4) seepage and surface water supply. WALRUS consists of a coupled groundwater-vadose zone reservoir, a quickflow reservoir and a surface water reservoir. WALRUS is suitable for operational use because it is computationally efficient and numerically stable (achieved with a flexible time step approach). In the open source model code default relations have been implemented, leaving only four parameters which require calibration. For research purposes, these defaults can easily be changed. Numerical experiments show that the implemented feedbacks have the desired effect on the system variables.

  13. Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Zhao

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

  14. Application of a modified conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulation of groundwater level in an undefined watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Nian; Hama, Takehide; Suenaga, Yuichi; Aqili, Sayed Waliullah; Huang, Xiaowu; Wei, Qiaoyan; Kawagoshi, Yasunori

    2016-01-15

    Groundwater level simulation models can help ensure the proper management and use of urban and rural water supply. In this paper, we propose a groundwater level tank model (GLTM) based on a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (tank model) to simulate fluctuations in groundwater level. The variables used in the simulations consist of daily rainfall and daily groundwater level, which were recorded between April 2011 and March 2015 at two representative observation wells in Kumamoto City, Japan. We determined the best-fit model parameters by root-mean-square error through use of the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona algorithm on a simulated data set. Calibration and validation results were evaluated by their coefficients of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, and root-mean-square error values. The GLTM provided accurate results in both the calibration and validation of fluctuations in groundwater level. The split sample test results indicate a good reliability. These results indicate that this model can provide a simple approach to the accurate simulation of groundwater levels.

  15. Rainfall-Runoff Simulations to Assess the Potential of SuDS for Mitigating Flooding in Highly Urbanized Catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jato-Espino, Daniel; Charlesworth, Susanne M; Bayon, Joseba R; Warwick, Frank

    2016-01-21

    Sustainable Urban Drainage Systems (SuDS) constitute an alternative to conventional drainage when managing stormwater in cities, reducing the impact of urbanization by decreasing the amount of runoff generated by a rainfall event. This paper shows the potential benefits of installing different types of SuDS in preventing flooding in comparison with the common urban drainage strategies consisting of sewer networks of manholes and pipes. The impact of these systems on urban water was studied using Geographic Information Systems (GIS), which are useful tools when both delineating catchments and parameterizing the elements that define a stormwater drainage system. Taking these GIS-based data as inputs, a series of rainfall-runoff simulations were run in a real catchment located in the city of Donostia (Northern Spain) using stormwater computer models, in order to compare the flow rates and depths produced by a design storm before and after installing SuDS. The proposed methodology overcomes the lack of precision found in former GIS-based stormwater approaches when dealing with the modeling of highly urbanized catchments, while the results demonstrated the usefulness of these systems in reducing the volume of water generated after a rainfall event and their ability to prevent localized flooding and surcharges along the sewer network.

  16. MOBILIZATION OF ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS AND ESTROGENIC ACTIVITY IN SIMULATED RAINFALL RUNOFF FROM LAND-APPLIED BIOSOLIDS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giudice, Ben D.; Young, Thomas M.

    2012-01-01

    Municipal biosolids are commonly applied to land as soil amendment or fertilizer as a form of beneficial reuse of what could otherwise be viewed as waste. Balanced against this benefit are potential risks to groundwater and surface water quality from constituents that may be mobilized during storm events. The objective of the present study was to characterize the mobilization of selected endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs), heavy metals, and total estrogenic activity in rainfall runoff from land-applied biosolids. Rainfall simulations were conducted on soil plots amended with biosolids. Surface runoff and leachate was collected and analyzed for the EDCs bisphenol A, 17α-ethynylestradiol, triclocarban, triclosan, octylphenol, and nonylphenol; a suite of sixteen metals; and estrogenic activity via the ER-CALUX bioassay. Triclocarban (2.3–17.3 ng/L), triclosan (ER-CALUX results were mostly explained by background bisphenol A contamination and octylphenol in runoff, though unknown contributors and/or matrix effects were also found. PMID:21786314

  17. Mobilization of endocrine-disrupting chemicals and estrogenic activity in simulated rainfall runoff from land-applied biosolids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giudice, Ben D; Young, Thomas M

    2011-10-01

    Municipal biosolids are commonly applied to land as soil amendment or fertilizer as a form of beneficial reuse of what could otherwise be viewed as waste. Balanced against this benefit are potential risks to groundwater and surface water quality from constituents that may be mobilized during storm events. The objective of the present study was to characterize the mobilization of selected endocrine-disrupting compounds, heavy metals, and total estrogenic activity in rainfall runoff from land-applied biosolids. Rainfall simulations were conducted on soil plots amended with biosolids. Surface runoff and leachate was collected and analyzed for the endocrine-disrupting compounds bisphenol A, 17α-ethynylestradiol, triclocarban, triclosan, octylphenol, and nonylphenol; a suite of 16 metals; and estrogenic activity via the estrogen receptor-mediated chemical activated luciferase gene expression (ER-CALUX) bioassay. Triclocarban (2.3-17.3 ng/L), triclosan (ER-CALUX results were mostly explained by background bisphenol A contamination and octylphenol in runoff, although unknown contributors or matrix effects were also found.

  18. Rainfall-Runoff Simulations in Arid Catchments in Sinai Peninsula, Egypt, using a Distributed Physically-based Hydrologic Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, E.; Elsayed, E. A.; Abdel-Motaleb, M.

    2008-05-01

    Egypt's Sinai Peninsula falls within an arid climatic belt that crosses northern Africa and southwestern Asia. Despite its aridity, Sinai is occasionally subjected to heavy rainfall causing flash floods, which are commonly characterized by sharp peak discharges with short durations. Several flash floods were recorded in south Sinai, which resulted in significant infrastructural damages, population displacement and, sometimes, loss of lives. Despite their hazardous effects, flash floods in Sinai, and other parts of southern Egypt, represent a potential resource for non-conventional fresh water sources. In order to mitigate flash flood damages and efficiently harvest the flash-flood highly needed fresh water, it is crucially important to accurately predict the occurrence of flash floods in terms of both timing and magnitude. Several studies have been implemented to develop hydrologic models for predicting flash floods in Sinai. In these studies, methodologies that are primarily conceptual, such as synthetic unit hydrographs, have shown little success at reproducing observed flood hydrographs. Physically-based distributed models provide an alternative approach for modeling food events in the Sinai arid environment. This study will examine the utility of a physically-based distributed hydrologic model (Gridded Surface-Subsurface Hydrologic Analysis, GSSHA) to simulate rainfall-runoff response in a small and a mid-size catchment in Sinai. GSSHA is a fully distributed-parameter, process-based hydrologic model that uses finite difference and finite volume methods to simulate different hydrologic processes. The watershed topographic and hydrologic properties are represented using Cartesian grids in the order of 100x100 m2. Overland hydraulic properties and soil hydraulic parameters were varied according to combined spatial classifications of soil type and land use maps. Field measurements of soil types and infiltration parameters were used to initially assign model

  19. Phosphorus losses in simulated rainfall runoff from manured soils of Alberta.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Volf, Callie A; Ontkean, Gerald R; Bennett, D Rodney; Chanasyk, David S; Miller, Jim J

    2007-01-01

    Manure applied to agricultural land at rates that exceed annual crop nutrient requirements can be a source of phosphorus in runoff. Manure incorporation is often recommended to reduce phosphorus losses in runoff. A small plot rainfall simulation study was conducted at three sites in Alberta to evaluate the effects of manure rate and incorporation on phosphorus losses. Treatments consisted of three solid beef cattle manure application rates (50, 100, and 200 kg ha(-1) total phosphorus), an unmanured control, and two incorporation methods (nonincorporated and incorporated with one pass of a double disk). Simulated rain was applied to soils with freshly applied and residual (1 yr after application) manure at 70 mm h(-1) to produce 30 min of runoff. Soil test phosphorus (STP), total phosphorus (TP), and dissolved reactive phosphorus (DRP) concentrations in runoff increased with manure rate for fresh and residual manure. Initial abstraction and runoff volumes did not change with manure rate. Initial abstraction, runoff volumes, and phosphorus concentrations did not change with manure incorporation at Lacombe and Wilson, but initial abstraction volumes increased and runoff volumes and phosphorus concentrations decreased with incorporation of fresh manure at Beaverlodge. Phosphorus losses in runoff were directly related to phosphorus additions. Extraction coefficients (slopes of the regression lines) for the linear relationships between residual manure STP and phosphorus in runoff were 0.007 to 0.015 for runoff TP and 0.006 to 0.013 for runoff DRP. While incorporation of manure with a double disk had no significant effect on phosphorus losses in runoff from manure-amended soils 1 yr after application, incorporation of manure is still recommended to control nitrogen losses, improve crop nutrient uptake, and potentially reduce odor concerns.

  20. Rainfall-runoff properties of tephra: Simulated effects of grain-size and antecedent rainfall

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, Robbie; Thomas, Robert E.; Peakall, Jeff; Manville, Vern

    2017-04-01

    Rain-triggered lahars (RTLs) are a significant and often persistent secondary volcanic hazard at many volcanoes around the world. Rainfall on unconsolidated volcaniclastic material is the primary initiation mechanism of RTLs: the resultant flows have the potential for large runout distances (> 100 km) and present a substantial hazard to downstream infrastructure and communities. RTLs are frequently anticipated in the aftermath of eruptions, but the pattern, timing and scale of lahars varies on an eruption-by-eruption and even catchment-by-catchment basis. This variability is driven by a set of local factors including the grain size distribution, thickness, stratigraphy and spatial distribution of source material in addition to topography, vegetation coverage and rainfall conditions. These factors are often qualitatively discussed in RTL studies based on post-eruption lahar observations or instrumental detections. Conversely, this study aims to move towards a quantitative assessment of RTL hazard in order to facilitate RTL predictions and forecasts based on constrained rainfall, grain size distribution and isopach data. Calibrated simulated rainfall and laboratory-constructed tephra beds are used within a repeatable experimental set-up to isolate the effects of individual parameters and to examine runoff and infiltration processes from analogous RTL source conditions. Laboratory experiments show that increased antecedent rainfall and finer-grained surface tephra individually increase runoff rates and decrease runoff lag times, while a combination of these factors produces a compound effect. These impacts are driven by increased residual moisture content and decreased permeability due to surface sealing, and have previously been inferred from downstream observations of lahars but not identified at source. Water and sediment transport mechanisms differ based on surface grain size distribution: a fine-grained surface layer displayed airborne remobilisation

  1. Simulation of Streamflow in a Discontinuous Permafrost Environment Using a Modified First-order, Nonlinear Rainfall-runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, W. R.; Hinzman, L. D.

    2009-12-01

    The sub-arctic environment can be characterized by being located in the zone of discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost in this region is specific, it dominates the response of many of the hydrologic processes including stream flow, soil moisture dynamics, and water storage processes. In areas underlain by permafrost, ice-rich conditions at the permafrost table inhibit surface water percolation to the deep subsurface soils, resulting in an increased runoff generation generation during precipitation events, decreased baseflow between precipitation events, and relatively wetter soils compared to permafrost-free areas. Over the course of a summer season, the thawing of the active layer (the thin soil layer about the permafrost that seasonally freezes and thaws) increases the potential water holding capacity of the soil, resulting in a decreasing surface water contribution during precipitation events and a steadily increasing baseflow contribution between precipitation events. Simulation of stream flow in this region is challenging due to the rapidly changing thermal (permafrost versus non-permafrost, active layer development) and hydraulic (hydraulic conductivity and soil storage capacity) conditions in both time and space (x, y, and z-dimensions). Many of the factors that have a control on both permafrost distribution and the thawing/freezing of active layer (such as soil material, soil moisture, and ice content) are not easily quantified at scales beyond the point measurement. In this study, these issues are addressed through streamflow analysis - the only hydrologic process that is easily measured at the basin scale. Following the general procedure outlined in Kirchner (2008), a simple rainfall-runoff model was applied to three small head-water basins of varying permafrost coverage. A simple, first-order, non-linear differential equation that describes the storage-discharge relationship were derived from three years of stream flow data

  2. MOBILIZATION OF ENDOCRINE DISRUPTING CHEMICALS AND ESTROGENIC ACTIVITY IN SIMULATED RAINFALL RUNOFF FROM LAND-APPLIED BIOSOLIDS

    OpenAIRE

    Giudice, Ben D.; Young, Thomas M.

    2011-01-01

    Municipal biosolids are commonly applied to land as soil amendment or fertilizer as a form of beneficial reuse of what could otherwise be viewed as waste. Balanced against this benefit are potential risks to groundwater and surface water quality from constituents that may be mobilized during storm events. The objective of the present study was to characterize the mobilization of selected endocrine disrupting compounds (EDCs), heavy metals, and total estrogenic activity in rainfall runoff from...

  3. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): a Novel Open Source Rainfall-Runoff Model for Areas with Shallow Groundwater

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, C.; Teuling, R.; Torfs, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-12-01

    Recently, we developed the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) to fill the gap between complex, spatially distributed models which are often used in lowland regions and simple, parametric models which have mostly been developed for mountainous catchments. This parametric rainfall-runoff model can be used all over the world, both in freely draining lowland catchments and polders with controlled water levels. Here, we present the model implementation and our recent experience in training students and practitioners to use the model. WALRUS has several advantages that facilitate practical application. Firstly, WALRUS is computationally efficient, which allows for operational forecasting and uncertainty estimation by running ensembles. Secondly, the code is set-up such that it can be used by both practitioners and researchers. For direct use by practitioners, defaults are implemented for relations between model variables and for the computation of initial conditions based on discharge only, leaving only four parameters which require calibration. For research purposes, the defaults can easily be changed. Finally, an approach for flexible time steps increases numerical stability and makes model parameter values independent of time step size, which facilitates use of the model with the same parameter set for multi-year water balance studies as well as detailed analyses of individual flood peaks. The open source model code is currently implemented in R and compiled into a package. This package will be made available through the R CRAN server. A small massive open online course (MOOC) is being developed to give students, researchers and practitioners a step-by-step WALRUS-training. This course contains explanations about model elements and its advantages and limitations, as well as hands-on exercises to learn how to use WALRUS. All code, course, literature and examples will be collected on a dedicated website, which can be found via www

  4. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): development of a novel parametric rainfall-runoff model using field experience

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Claudia; Torfs, Paul; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2014-05-01

    We present the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS), a novel rainfall-runoff model to fill the gap between complex, spatially distributed models for lowland catchments and simple, parametric models for mountainous catchments. From observations and experience from two Dutch field sites (the Hupsel Brook catchment and the Cabauw polder), we identified key processes for runoff generation in lowland catchments and important feedbacks between components in the hydrological system. We used this knowledge to design a parametric model which can be used all over the world in both freely draining lowland catchments and polders with controlled water levels. While using only four parameters which require calibration, WALRUS explicitly accounts for processes that are important in lowland areas: (1) Groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling: WALRUS contains one soil reservoir, which is divided effectively by the (dynamic) groundwater table into a groundwater zone and a vadose zone. The condition of this soil reservoir is described by two strongly dependent variables: the groundwater depth and the storage deficit (the effective thickness of empty pores). This implementation enables capillary rise when the top soil has dried through evapotranspiration. (2) Wetness-dependent flowroutes: The storage deficit determines the division of rain water between the soil reservoir (slow routes: infiltration, percolation and groundwater flow) and a quickflow reservoir (quick routes: drainpipe, macropore and overland flow). (3) Groundwater-surface water feedbacks: Surface water forms an explicit part of the model structure. Drainage depends on the difference between surface water level and groundwater level (rather than groundwater level alone), allowing for feedbacks and infiltration of surface water into the soil. (4) Seepage and surface water supply: Groundwater seepage and surface water supply or extraction (pumping) are added to or subtracted from the soil or surface water reservoir

  5. Large-scale Flood Simulation with Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Model in the Chao Phraya River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayama, Takahiro; Tatebe, Yuya; Tanaka, Shigenobu

    2013-04-01

    A large amount of rainfall during the 2011 monsoonal season caused an unprecedented flood disaster in the Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. When a large-scale flood occurs, it is very important to take appropriate emergency measures by holistically understanding the characteristics of the flooding based on available information and by predicting its possible development. This paper proposes quick response-type flood simulation that can be conducted during a severe flooding event. The hydrologic simulation model used in this study is designed to simulate river discharges and flood inundation simultaneously for an entire river basin with satellite based rainfall and topographic information. The model is based on two-dimensional diffusive wave equations for rainfall-runoff and inundation calculations. The model takes into account the effects of lateral subsurface flow and vertical infiltration flow since these two types of flow are also important processes. This paper presents prediction results obtained in mid-October 2011, when the flooding in Thailand was approaching to its peak. Our scientific question is how well we can predict the possible development of a large-scale flooding event with limited information and how much we can improve the prediction with more local information. In comparison with a satellite based flood inundation map, the study found that the quick response-type simulation (Lv1) was capable of capturing the peak flood inundation extent reasonably as compared to the estimation based on satellite remote sensing. Our interpretation of the prediction was that the flooding might continue even until the end of November, which was also positively confirmed to some extent by the actual flooding status in late November. Nevertheless, the Lv1 simulation generally overestimated the peak water level. To address this overestimation, the input data was updated with additional local information (Lv2). Consequently, the simulation accuracy improved in the

  6. Toward an operational tool to simulate green roof hydrological impact at the basin scale: a new version of the distributed rainfall-runoff model Multi-Hydro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Gires, Auguste; Tchinguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2016-10-01

    Currently widespread in new urban projects, green roofs have shown a positive impact on urban runoff at the building scale: decrease and slow-down of the peak discharge, and decrease of runoff volume. The present work aims to study their possible impact at the catchment scale, more compatible with stormwater management issues. For this purpose, a specific module dedicated to simulating the hydrological behaviour of a green roof has been developed in the distributed rainfall-runoff model (Multi-Hydro). It has been applied on a French urban catchment where most of the building roofs are flat and assumed to accept the implementation of a green roof. Catchment responses to several rainfall events covering a wide range of meteorological situations have been simulated. The simulation results show green roofs can significantly reduce runoff volume and the magnitude of peak discharge (up to 80%) depending on the rainfall event and initial saturation of the substrate. Additional tests have been made to assess the susceptibility of this response regarding both spatial distributions of green roofs and precipitation. It appears that the total area of greened roofs is more important than their locations. On the other hand, peak discharge reduction seems to be clearly dependent on spatial distribution of precipitation.

  7. Coarse grid shallow water simulations of rainfall-runoff in small catchments with modified friction law to account for unresolved microtopography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Özgen, Ilhan; Serrano-Taslim, Miguel; Zhao, Jiaheng; Liang, Dongfang; Hinkelmann, Reinhard

    2016-04-01

    In recent years, the fully dynamic shallow water equations have been successfully used to simulate rainfall-runoff in natural catchments. Hereby, the hydrodynamics of the surface runoff is greatly influenced by local topographical features. Thus, it is desirable to use high-resolution models which resolve the topography of the study area sufficiently. However, high-resolution simulations across catchment scales are often unfeasible due to finite computer resources. In this contribution, the shallow water equations are solved on a coarse resolution, leaving significant topographical features unresolved. The coarsened grid size leads to a smaller cell number and therefore reduces computational cost. The influence of the topography is accounted for with an artificial friction source term which is dependent on the inundation ratio, i.e. the ratio of water depth to roughness height, the slope and two additional parameters, namely a dimensionless friction coefficient and a geometric conveyance parameter. Subgrid scale information is used to determine these parameters. The friction approach is applied in two different ways: (1) a global average roughness height for the entire catchment is calculated and used as input, (2) the roughness height is calculated individually in each cell which introduces additional heterogeneity to the model. In two test cases, the individual roughness height-based approach is compared to results of the global roughness height-based approach and to igh-resolution model results. The comparison shows slight improvement in the results if the roughness height is assigned individually, however overall the improvement is negligible. Both models enable to run the simulations about three orders of magnitude faster than the high-resolution model.

  8. How Sensitive is Large-scale Flood Inundation to Rainfall Variability?: Water Balance Analysis Based on Basin-wide Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayama, T.; Tatebe, Y.; Tanaka, S.

    2013-12-01

    The 2011 large-scale flood over the Chao Phraya River (CPR) basin resulted in the worst economic flood damage to Thailand. The flooding was induced mainly by unprecedented rainfall from five typhoons and tropical depressions between May and October. The total rainfall in the six months during the monsoon season was approximately 1,400 mm, while the average monsoon-season rainfall in this region is about 1,000 mm, and previous large-scale floods were caused by a total rainfall of approximately 1,200 mm. The interpretation of the additional 200 mm of rainfall compared to past events can greatly affect the understanding of the 2011 flood disaster. Up until now, the magnitude of the flood hazard itself has received little attention due to the seemingly insignificant rainfall variability. Instead, the increase of societal vulnerability, such as accumulation of assets in flood-prone areas, has been more highlighted. Nevertheless, without understanding the impact of the rainfall variability on flood runoff and inundation, essential characteristics of the flood disaster may be misinterpreted. In this study, we focused on the hydrologic characteristics of the flood based on 52 year-long inundation simulation. We applied a 2D Rainfall-Runoff-Inundation (RRI) model to the entire CPR basin. After the model validation with river discharges and water levels, remote sensing inundation extents, and peak inundation water depths for 2011, we conducted water balance analysis from the simulation results to investigate the relationship among rainfall, runoff and inundation volumes. The simulation, by taking two major dams into account, found that 131 mm (9%) of the total rainfall (1,400 mm) may have flooded at the peak. The estimated sensitivity of flood inundation to rainfall (dF/dP) was 0.25. This suggests that the additional 200 mm of rainfall may have resulted in a 50 mm, or 8.2 billion m3, increase in flood inundation volume. It accounts for more than 60 % of the total storage

  9. Assessing the detail needed to capture rainfall-runoff dynamics with physics-based hydrologic response simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mirus, B.B.; Ebel, B.A.; Heppner, C.S.; Loague, K.

    2011-01-01

    Concept development simulation with distributed, physics-based models provides a quantitative approach for investigating runoff generation processes across environmental conditions. Disparities within data sets employed to design and parameterize boundary value problems used in heuristic simulation inevitably introduce various levels of bias. The objective was to evaluate the impact of boundary value problem complexity on process representation for different runoff generation mechanisms. The comprehensive physics-based hydrologic response model InHM has been employed to generate base case simulations for four well-characterized catchments. The C3 and CB catchments are located within steep, forested environments dominated by subsurface stormflow; the TW and R5 catchments are located in gently sloping rangeland environments dominated by Dunne and Horton overland flows. Observational details are well captured within all four of the base case simulations, but the characterization of soil depth, permeability, rainfall intensity, and evapotranspiration differs for each. These differences are investigated through the conversion of each base case into a reduced case scenario, all sharing the same level of complexity. Evaluation of how individual boundary value problem characteristics impact simulated runoff generation processes is facilitated by quantitative analysis of integrated and distributed responses at high spatial and temporal resolution. Generally, the base case reduction causes moderate changes in discharge and runoff patterns, with the dominant process remaining unchanged. Moderate differences between the base and reduced cases highlight the importance of detailed field observations for parameterizing and evaluating physics-based models. Overall, similarities between the base and reduced cases indicate that the simpler boundary value problems may be useful for concept development simulation to investigate fundamental controls on the spectrum of runoff generation

  10. Simulation of river flow in the Thames over 120 years: Evidence of change in rainfall-runoff response?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S.M. Crooks

    2015-09-01

    New hydrological insights: The generally close correspondence between observed and simulated flows using the same model parameter values for the whole period is indicative of the temporal stability of hydrological processes and catchment response, and the quality of the hydrometric data. Changes that have occurred are a decrease in flood peak response times, typically two to three days pre and post the early 1940s, from change in agricultural practices and channel conveyance, and an increase of about 15% in summer flow from increase in urban land cover between the first decade of the 20th and 21st centuries. The water balance was found to be sensitive to the PE data used, with care needed to avoid discontinuity between two parts of the data record using different methods for calculation. Long-term mean annual rainfall shows little change but contrasting patterns of variation in seasonal rainfall demonstrate a variable climate for which simulated flow is similar to observed flow.

  11. Simulation of rainfall-runoff and watershed convergence process in the upper reaches of Heihe River Basin, July 2002

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    GAO Yanhong; L(U) Shihua; CHENG Guodong

    2004-01-01

    The watershed flow concentration scheme in the distributed hydrology-soil- vegetation model (DHSVM) is coupled with the mesoscale atmospheric model MM5 version 3.5, in which the Oregen States University land surface model (OSULSM) was involved. The flood event which happened in July 2002 in the upper reaches of Heihe river basin is simulated and the surface flow convergence process is shown with this coupled model. It has been concluded that times water head reaches each place of the basin are different. Water amount at each point is split-flow proportionally as the drops in elevation between it and neighbor points. Large part of the water amount pass away in greater slope direction and small part pass away in smaller slope one.Adding of the slope convergence makes the atmospheric model redistributes the surface water laterally.

  12. Rainfall/runoff simulation with 2D full shallow water equations: Sensitivity analysis and calibration of infiltration parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fernández-Pato, Javier; Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; García-Navarro, Pilar

    2016-05-01

    One of the most difficult issues in the development of hydrologic models is to find a rigorous source of data and specific parameters to a given problem, on a given location that enable reliable calibration. In this paper, a distributed and physically based model (2D Shallow Water Equations) is used for surface flow and runoff calculations in combination with two infiltration laws (Horton and Green-Ampt) for estimating infiltration in a watershed. This technique offers the capability of assigning a local and time-dependent infiltration rate to each computational cell depending on the available surface water, soil type or vegetation. We investigate how the calibration of parameters is affected by transient distributed Shallow Water model and the complexity of the problem. In the first part of this work, we calibrate the infiltration parameters for both Horton and Green-Ampt models under flat ponded soil conditions. Then, by means of synthetic test cases, we perform a space-distributed sensitivity analysis in order to show that this calibration can be significantly affected by the introduction of topography or rainfall. In the second part, parameter calibration for a real catchment is addressed by comparing the numerical simulations with two different sets of experimental data, corresponding to very different events in terms of the rainfall volume. We show that the initial conditions of the catchment and the rainfall pattern have a special relevance in the quality of the adjustment. Hence, it is shown that the topography of the catchment and the storm characteristics affect the calibration of infiltration parameters.

  13. Physically based modelling of rainfall-runoff processes

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Diermanse, F.L.M.

    2001-01-01

    This PhD. research was set up to investigate the use of rainfall-runoff models for simulation of high water events in hillslope areas. First, dominant parameters for runoff production during high water events have been identified. Subsequently, the influence of antecedent conditions on runoff percen

  14. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    2012-11-01

    SummaryWhile there seems to be consensus that hydrological model outputs should be accompanied with an uncertainty estimate the appropriate method for uncertainty estimation is not agreed upon and a debate is ongoing between advocators of formal statistical methods who consider errors as stochastic and GLUE advocators who consider errors as epistemic, arguing that the basis of formal statistical approaches that requires the residuals to be stationary and conform to a statistical distribution is unrealistic. In this paper we take a formal frequentist approach to parameter estimation and uncertainty evaluation of the modelled output, and we attach particular importance to inspecting the residuals of the model outputs and improving the model uncertainty description. We also introduce the probabilistic performance measures sharpness, reliability and interval skill score for model comparison and for checking the reliability of the confidence bounds. Using point rainfall and evaporation data as input and flow measurements from a sewer system for model conditioning, a state space model is formulated that accounts for three different flow contributions: wastewater from households, and fast rainfall-runoff from paved areas and slow rainfall-dependent infiltration-inflow from unknown sources. We consider two different approaches to evaluate the model output uncertainty, the output error method that lumps all uncertainty into the observation noise term, and a method based on Stochastic Differential Equations (SDEs) that separates input and model structure uncertainty from observation uncertainty and allows updating of model states in real-time. The results show that the optimal simulation (off-line) model is based on the output error method whereas the optimal prediction (on-line) model is based on the SDE method and the skill scoring criterion proved that significant predictive improvements of the output can be gained from updating the states continuously. In an effort to

  15. 龙门山区小流域降雨产流数值模拟研究%Numerical simulation of rainfall-runoff in Longmen mountain watershed

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    钱群; 冉启华

    2012-01-01

      龙门山区小流域常由暴雨引发山洪泥石流等灾害,但由于数据的缺乏而无法明确其产流机制及发展过程。本文选取四川省龙溪河地区的山区小流域碱坪沟作为研究区域,利用基于物理概念的模型InHM对该流域的降雨产流过程进行分析。与实测流量数据的比较表明该模型在碱坪沟流域有较好的适用性。基于模拟结果分析了该流域土壤含水率以及地表/地下交换水量(入渗/出渗)在产流过程中的分布特征,结果表明:(1)土壤含水率以及地表/地下交换水量(入渗/出渗)在流域内不同位置分布不均匀;(2)在河道周边,Dunne产流机制占主要地位;(3)出渗常发生在河道周边;(4)流域内存在地下径流,且在总径流中占较大比例。该研究证实了InHM模型在西部山区小流域水文模拟中的适用性,也加深了对碱坪沟流域产流机制的了解,进而有助于明确该地区山洪泥石流灾害的产生机制。%  Because of its special rainstorm characteristics, flash floods and other disasters often occurs in the Longmen mountain watershed. But the lack of data leads to the unclear runoff generation mechanisms and the development process in these areas. This paper selects the Jianpinggou watershed as the study ar⁃ea,which is in Longxi River basin,Sichuan Province. A physical-based model,Integrated Hydrology Mod⁃el (InHM),is used to simulate the rainfall-runoff. The measured flow data in Jianpinggou Watershed show that the model has good applicability. Inspection of the distribution of soil moisture and water exchange be⁃tween the surface and the subsurface (infiltration/exfiltration) leads to the following generalized comments:(1) Soil moisture and water exchange between the surface and the subsurface (infiltration/exfiltration) are variable across the catchment;(2) The Dunne mechanism is dominant near the channel;(3) The exfiltra

  16. Evaluation of Rainfall-Runoff Models for Mediterranean Subcatchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cilek, A.; Berberoglu, S.; Donmez, C.

    2016-06-01

    The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA), a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  17. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  18. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2006-01-01

    recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...... are presented in order to investigate how the hydrological reduction factor depends on the level of detail regarding the catchment description. When applying a total survey of the catchment area, including all possible impervious surfaces, a hydrological reduction factor of approximately 0.5 for residential...

  19. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2005-01-01

    recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...... are presented in order to investigate how the hydrological reduction factor depends on the level of detail regarding the catchment description. When applying a total survey of the catchment area, including all possible impervious surfaces, a hydrological reduction factor of approximately 0.5 for residential...

  20. Regionalized rainfall-runoff model to estimate low flow indices

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garcia, Florine; Folton, Nathalie; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-04-01

    Estimating low flow indices is of paramount importance to manage water resources and risk assessments. These indices are derived from river discharges which are measured at gauged stations. However, the lack of observations at ungauged sites bring the necessity of developing methods to estimate these low flow indices from observed discharges in neighboring catchments and from catchment characteristics. Different estimation methods exist. Regression or geostatistical methods performed on the low flow indices are the most common types of methods. Another less common method consists in regionalizing rainfall-runoff model parameters, from catchment characteristics or by spatial proximity, to estimate low flow indices from simulated hydrographs. Irstea developed GR2M-LoiEau, a conceptual monthly rainfall-runoff model, combined with a regionalized model of snow storage and melt. GR2M-LoiEau relies on only two parameters, which are regionalized and mapped throughout France. This model allows to cartography monthly reference low flow indices. The inputs data come from SAFRAN, the distributed mesoscale atmospheric analysis system, which provides daily solid and liquid precipitation and temperature data from everywhere in the French territory. To exploit fully these data and to estimate daily low flow indices, a new version of GR-LoiEau has been developed at a daily time step. The aim of this work is to develop and regionalize a GR-LoiEau model that can provide any daily, monthly or annual estimations of low flow indices, yet keeping only a few parameters, which is a major advantage to regionalize them. This work includes two parts. On the one hand, a daily conceptual rainfall-runoff model is developed with only three parameters in order to simulate daily and monthly low flow indices, mean annual runoff and seasonality. On the other hand, different regionalization methods, based on spatial proximity and similarity, are tested to estimate the model parameters and to simulate

  1. Rainfall-runoff modeling for storm events in a coastal forest catchment using neural networks

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    WANG Yi; HE Bin

    2008-01-01

    The process of transformation of rainfall into runoff over a catchment is very complex and highly nonlinear and exhibits both temporal and spatial variabilities. In this article, a rainfall-runoff model using the artificial neural networks (ANN) is proposed for simulating the runoff in storm events. The study uses the data from a coastal forest catchmentlocated in Seto Inland Sea, Japan. This article studies the accuracy of the short-term rainfall forecast obtained by ANN time-series analysis techniques and using antecedent rainfall depths and stream flow as the input information. The verification results from the proposed model indicate that the approach of ANN rainfall-runoff model presented in this paper shows a reasonable agreement in rainfall-runoff modeling with high accuracy.

  2. Towards a comprehensive physically-based rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Z. Liu

    2002-01-01

    development of the real-time flood forecasting system of the Arno river will be described. The TOPKAPI model results demonstrate good agreement between observed and simulated responses in the two catchments, which encourages further developments of the model. Keywords: rainfall-runoff modelling, topographic, kinematic wave approximation, spatial integration, physical meaning, non-linear reservoir model, distributed and lumped

  3. Modeling rainfall-runoff processes using smoothed particle hydrodynamics with mass-varied particles

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tsang-Jung; Chang, Yu-Sheng; Chang, Kao-Hua

    2016-12-01

    In this study, a novel treatment of adopting mass-varied particles in smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) is proposed to solve the shallow water equations (SWEs) and model the rainfall-runoff process. Since SWEs have depth-averaged or cross-section-averaged features, there is no sufficient dimension to add rainfall particles. Thus, SPH-SWE methods have focused on modeling discharge flows in open channels or floodplains without rainfall. With the proposed treatment, the application of SPH-SWEs can be extended to rainfall-runoff processes in watersheds. First, the numerical procedures associated with using mass-varied particles in SPH-SWEs are introduced and derived. Then, numerical validations are conducted for three benchmark problems, including uniform rainfall over a 1D flat sloping channel, nonuniform rain falling over a 1D three-slope channel with different rainfall durations, and uniform rainfall over a 2D plot with complex topography. The simulated results indicate that the proposed treatment can avoid the necessity of a source term function of mass variation, and no additional particles are needed for the increase of mass. Rainfall-runoff processes can be well captured in the presence of hydraulic jumps, dry/wet bed flows, and supercritical/subcritical/transcritical flows. The proposed treatment using mass-varied particles was proven robust and reliable for modeling rainfall-runoff processes. It can provide a new alternative for investigating practical hydrological problems.

  4. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-01-15

    Jan 15, 2015 ... Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed have an important role in water .... Initial estimations will improve following the development of the model. .... Resources Research Nordic Hydrology, 33 (5), 2002,33 1-346.

  5. 城市居民小区SWMM降雨径流过程模拟——以营口市贵都花园小区为例%SIMULATING RAINFALL-RUNOFF IN UNBAN RESIDENTIAL AREA BASED ON SWMM

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张倩; 苏保林; 袁军营

    2012-01-01

    为克服没有实测数据校准SWMM(storm water management model)的难点,选用传统的径流系数法,从降雨径流总量以及降雨径流过程2方面来验证SWMM.结果表明,SWMM模拟的场次降雨径流总量以及年降雨径流总量与径流系数法估算的径流量的相对误差在可接受范围内,并且模拟的降雨径流过程与径流系数法推算的径流过程匹配结果也较好,说明SWMM能够较好地用于城市降雨径流总量以及过程的模拟,为后期进行降雨径流污染物总量及产生规律的研究提供了工作基础.%SWMM(storm water management model) is now widely used for simulation of runoff of urban rainfall.Usually,SWMM is calibrated and verified with experimental data.It is difficult however,to observe the process of rainfall-runoff in some areas,so in order to avoid this difficulty,traditional runoff coefficient method was chosen to calibrate SWMM data from two aspects,total rainfall-runoff and runoff process.It was found that SWMM could be used to simulate total rainfall-runoff and the runoff process,and provide useful data for runoff pollutant loadings.

  6. An analogue conceptual rainfall-runoff model for educational purposes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Herrnegger, Mathew; Riedl, Michael; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models, in which runoff processes are modelled with a series of connected linear and non-linear reservoirs, remain widely applied tools in science and practice. Additionally, the concept is appreciated in teaching due to its somewhat simplicity in explaining and exploring hydrological processes of catchments. However, when a series of reservoirs are used, the model system becomes highly parametrized and complex and the traceability of the model results becomes more difficult to explain to an audience not accustomed to numerical modelling. Since normally the simulations are performed with a not visible digital code, the results are also not easily comprehensible. This contribution therefore presents a liquid analogue model, in which a conceptual rainfall-runoff model is reproduced by a physical model. This consists of different acrylic glass containers representing different storage components within a catchment, e.g. soil water or groundwater storage. The containers are equipped and connected with pipes, in which water movement represents different flow processes, e.g. surface runoff, percolation or base flow. Water from a storage container is pumped to the upper part of the model and represents effective rainfall input. The water then flows by gravity through the different pipes and storages. Valves are used for controlling the flows within the analogue model, comparable to the parameterization procedure in numerical models. Additionally, an inexpensive microcontroller-based board and sensors are used to measure storage water levels, with online visualization of the states as time series data, building a bridge between the analogue and digital world. The ability to physically witness the different flows and water levels in the storages makes the analogue model attractive to the audience. Hands-on experiments can be performed with students, in which different scenarios or catchment types can be simulated, not only with the analogue but

  7. Uncertainty based modeling of rainfall-runoff: Combined differential evolution adaptive Metropolis (DREAM) and K-means clustering

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zahmatkesh, Zahra; Karamouz, Mohammad; Nazif, Sara

    2015-09-01

    Simulation of rainfall-runoff process in urban areas is of great importance considering the consequences and damages of extreme runoff events and floods. The first issue in flood hazard analysis is rainfall simulation. Large scale climate signals have been proved to be effective in rainfall simulation and prediction. In this study, an integrated scheme is developed for rainfall-runoff modeling considering different sources of uncertainty. This scheme includes three main steps of rainfall forecasting, rainfall-runoff simulation and future runoff prediction. In the first step, data driven models are developed and used to forecast rainfall using large scale climate signals as rainfall predictors. Due to high effect of different sources of uncertainty on the output of hydrologic models, in the second step uncertainty associated with input data, model parameters and model structure is incorporated in rainfall-runoff modeling and simulation. Three rainfall-runoff simulation models are developed for consideration of model conceptual (structural) uncertainty in real time runoff forecasting. To analyze the uncertainty of the model structure, streamflows generated by alternative rainfall-runoff models are combined, through developing a weighting method based on K-means clustering. Model parameters and input uncertainty are investigated using an adaptive Markov Chain Monte Carlo method. Finally, calibrated rainfall-runoff models are driven using the forecasted rainfall to predict future runoff for the watershed. The proposed scheme is employed in the case study of the Bronx River watershed, New York City. Results of uncertainty analysis of rainfall-runoff modeling reveal that simultaneous estimation of model parameters and input uncertainty significantly changes the probability distribution of the model parameters. It is also observed that by combining the outputs of the hydrological models using the proposed clustering scheme, the accuracy of runoff simulation in the

  8. Classical and generalized Horton laws for peak flows in rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gupta, Vijay K; Ayalew, Tibebu B; Mantilla, Ricardo; Krajewski, Witold F

    2015-07-01

    The discovery of the Horton laws for hydrologic variables has greatly lagged behind geomorphology, which began with Robert Horton in 1945. We define the classical and the generalized Horton laws for peak flows in rainfall-runoff events, which link self-similarity in network geomorphology with river basin hydrology. Both the Horton laws are tested in the Iowa River basin in eastern Iowa that drains an area of approximately 32 400 km(2) before it joins the Mississippi River. The US Geological Survey continuously monitors the basin through 34 stream gauging stations. We select 51 rainfall-runoff events for carrying out the tests. Our findings support the existence of the classical and the generalized Horton laws for peak flows, which may be considered as a new hydrologic discovery. Three different methods are illustrated for estimating the Horton peak-flow ratio due to small sample size issues in peak flow data. We illustrate an application of the Horton laws for diagnosing parameterizations in a physical rainfall-runoff model. The ideas and developments presented here offer exciting new directions for hydrologic research and education.

  9. Rainfall-runoff mechanisms on a hill-island

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Frederiksen, Rasmus Rumph; Rasmussen, Keld Rømer; Christensen, Steen

    - map the shallow subsurface in more detail - choose appropriate locations for further monitoring of discharge at different spatial scales - monitor hydraulic head variations and quantify hydraulic parameters - build a model for analysis of rainfall-runoff processes in this particular hydrogeological...

  10. Fuzzy committees of specialised rainfall-runoff models: further enhancements

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kayastha, N.; Ye, J.; Fenicia, F.; Solomatine, D.P.

    2013-01-01

    Often a single hydrological model cannot capture the details of a complex rainfall-runoff relationship, and a possibility here is building specialised models to be responsible for a particular aspect of this relationship and combining them forming a committee model. This study extends earlier work o

  11. Real Time Updating in Distributed Urban Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Madsen, Henrik

    When it rains on urban areas the rainfall runoff is transported out of the city via the drainage system. Frequently, the drainage system cannot handle all the rain water, which results in problems like flooding or overflows into natural water bodies. To reduce these problems the systems...

  12. Which resilience of the continental rainfall-runoff chain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraedrich, Klaus

    2015-04-01

    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain are extremely variable over a wide range of time and space scales. A key societal question is the multiscale resilience of this chain. We argue that the adequate framework to tackle this question can be obtained by combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts: (i) Rainfall exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics) and extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law as simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process representing vertical moisture fluxes. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function (Gumbel) not unlike physical systems at criticality, while short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. (iii) Soil moisture, interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, provides an equation of state to the surface energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's framework for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. (iv) Vegetation-greenness (NDVI), included as an active tracer extends Budyko's eco-hydrologic state space analysis, supplements the common geographical presentations, and it may be linked to a minimalist biodiversity concept. (v) Finally, attributions of change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes are determined by eco-hydrologic state space trajectories using surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation). Risk-estimates (by GCM-emulators) and possible policy advice mechanisms enter the outlook.

  13. Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters to reduce prediction uncertainty in ungauged basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Visessri, S.; McIntyre, N.; Maksimovic, C.

    2012-12-01

    Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters in ungauged catchments in Thailand presents problems common to ungauged basins involving data availability, data quality, and rainfall-runoff model suitability, which all contribute to prediction uncertainty. This paper attempts to improve the estimation of streamflow in ungauged basins and reduce associated uncertainties using the approaches of conditioning the prior parameter space. 35 catchments from the upper Ping River basin, Thailand are selected as a case study. The catchments have a range of attributes e.g. catchment sizes 20-6350 km2, elevations 632-1529 m above sea level. and annual rainfall 846-1447 mm/year. For each catchment, three indices - rainfall-runoff elasticity, base flow index and runoff coefficient - are calculated using the observed rainfall-runoff data and regression equations relating these indices to the catchment attributes are identified. Uncertainty in expected indices is defined by the regression error distribution, approximated by a Gaussian model. The IHACRES model is applied for simulating streamflow. The IHACRES parameters are randomly sampled from their presumed prior parameter space. For each sampled parameter set, the streamflow and hence the three indices are modelled. The parameter sets are conditioned on the probability distributions of the regionalised indices, allowing ensemble predictions to be made. The objective function, NSE, calculated for daily and weekly time steps from the water years 1995-2000, is used to assess model performance. Ability to capture observed streamflow and the precision of the estimate is evaluated using reliability and sharpness measures. Similarity in modelled and expected indices contributes to good objective function values. Using only the regionalised runoff coefficient to condition the model yields better NSE values compared to using either only the rainfall-runoff elasticity or only the base flow index. Conditioning on the runoff coefficient

  14. Linking landscape structure and rainfall runoff behaviour in a thermodynamic optimality context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehe, Erwin; Ehret, Uwe; Blume, Theresa; Kleidon, Axel; Scherer, Ulrike; Westhoff, Martijn

    2015-04-01

    order polynomial of the wetting rate, which depends on macropore density, the slope of the soil water retention curve, topography and depth to groundwater. An uncalibrated long term simulation of the water balance of the 3.5 km² Weiherbach catchment based on the first optimum macroporosity performed almost as well as the best fit when macroporosity was calibrated to match rainfall runoff. In the other regime called potential- or p-regime, free energy dynamics of soil water is dominated by changes in its potential energy, which applies to non-cohesive soils and a pronounced topography. Soil wetting during rainfall in the p-regime implies to push the system away from LTE. This can be compensated by preferential pathways which connect directly to the riparian zone or the groundwater body, because these drainage structures enhance export of potential energy from the critical zone. However, in the p-regime no local optimum exists because potential energy reduction rates scale linearly with the drainage rate (there is at best an optimum at the margin of the parameter space). Nevertheless, in this case one can define a "distinguished" density of vertical and lateral preferential flow paths that assures steady state conditions of the potential energy balance of the soil. This applies when average storage of potential energy is compensated by average potential export . When applying this idea to the Mallalcahuello catchment in Chile model, which is characterized by non-cohesive soils, high annual rainfall and steep terrain, simulations performed close to the value that yielded the best fit of rainfall runoff behaviour obtained during a calibration exercise. Secondly this idea allowed a robust a priory estimate of the annual runoff coefficient in accordance with long term observations.

  15. Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff Parameters in Peatlands

    Science.gov (United States)

    Walle Menberu, Meseret; Torabi Haghighi, Ali; Kløve, Bjørn

    2013-04-01

    Finland is a country where its possession of peatlands compared to the total surface area of the country puts in the leading categories globally in peatland possession having 33.5% of its total land area covered with peatlands. Recent interest has grown in using peatlands as temporary flood control barriers by taking advantage of the high water holding capacity of peat soils. Water holding capacity of peat soils enables to reduce high rate of runoff and peak flow which might endanger downstream of the flow and in the process of doing that, the rest of the water leaving the peatland areas is less polluted due to the wetlands' potential in purifying polluted water. Therefore, in order to understand how capable enough peatlands are in holding water by reducing the peak flow or slowing down the rate of runoff, this paper analyses the rainfall-runoff phenomena in peatland catchments through important runoff parameters. Among the most important runoff parameters; the initial abstraction, the curve number and lag time are selected for this paper due to their highest impact on rainfall-runoff process. For this study, two peatland catchments of drained and pristine are selected. Managing to explain the initial abstraction and curve number behaviour in the catchments will able to clearly understand and as well predict the rainfall-runoff process in the catchments. In the selected study sites, observed rainfall and runoff data are collected. The study sites are modelled with the help of Arc-GIS and Hec-GeoHMS and from that are exported to HEC-HMS (Hydrologic modelling software) for rainfall-runoff analysis. The two important parameters; the initial abstraction and curve number are used to calibrate the model. And finally, the parameters that have given the best fit between the modelled and observed rainfall-runoff process are suggested for the study sites. Having these parameters estimated eases to understand rainfall-runoff process in the catchments for whatsoever purpose

  16. Calibrating a Rainfall-Runoff and Routing Model for the Continental United States

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jankowfsky, S.; Li, S.; Assteerawatt, A.; Tillmanns, S.; Hilberts, A.

    2014-12-01

    Catastrophe risk models are widely used in the insurance industry to estimate the cost of risk. The models consist of hazard models linked to vulnerability and financial loss models. In flood risk models, the hazard model generates inundation maps. In order to develop country wide inundation maps for different return periods a rainfall-runoff and routing model is run using stochastic rainfall data. The simulated discharge and runoff is then input to a two dimensional inundation model, which produces the flood maps. In order to get realistic flood maps, the rainfall-runoff and routing models have to be calibrated with observed discharge data. The rainfall-runoff model applied here is a semi-distributed model based on the Topmodel (Beven and Kirkby, 1979) approach which includes additional snowmelt and evapotranspiration models. The routing model is based on the Muskingum-Cunge (Cunge, 1969) approach and includes the simulation of lakes and reservoirs using the linear reservoir approach. Both models were calibrated using the multiobjective NSGA-II (Deb et al., 2002) genetic algorithm with NLDAS forcing data and around 4500 USGS discharge gauges for the period from 1979-2013. Additional gauges having no data after 1979 were calibrated using CPC rainfall data. The model performed well in wetter regions and shows the difficulty of simulating areas with sinks such as karstic areas or dry areas. Beven, K., Kirkby, M., 1979. A physically based, variable contributing area model of basin hydrology. Hydrol. Sci. Bull. 24 (1), 43-69. Cunge, J.A., 1969. On the subject of a flood propagation computation method (Muskingum method), J. Hydr. Research, 7(2), 205-230. Deb, K., Pratap, A., Agarwal, S., Meyarivan, T., 2002. A fast and elitist multiobjective genetic algorithm: NSGA-II, IEEE Transactions on evolutionary computation, 6(2), 182-197.

  17. Rainfall runoff modelling of the Upper Ganga and Brahmaputra basins using PERSiST.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futter, M N; Whitehead, P G; Sarkar, S; Rodda, H; Crossman, J

    2015-06-01

    There are ongoing discussions about the appropriate level of complexity and sources of uncertainty in rainfall runoff models. Simulations for operational hydrology, flood forecasting or nutrient transport all warrant different levels of complexity in the modelling approach. More complex model structures are appropriate for simulations of land-cover dependent nutrient transport while more parsimonious model structures may be adequate for runoff simulation. The appropriate level of complexity is also dependent on data availability. Here, we use PERSiST; a simple, semi-distributed dynamic rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit to simulate flows in the Upper Ganges and Brahmaputra rivers. We present two sets of simulations driven by single time series of daily precipitation and temperature using simple (A) and complex (B) model structures based on uniform and hydrochemically relevant land covers respectively. Models were compared based on ensembles of Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) statistics. Equifinality was observed for parameters but not for model structures. Model performance was better for the more complex (B) structural representations than for parsimonious model structures. The results show that structural uncertainty is more important than parameter uncertainty. The ensembles of BIC statistics suggested that neither structural representation was preferable in a statistical sense. Simulations presented here confirm that relatively simple models with limited data requirements can be used to credibly simulate flows and water balance components needed for nutrient flux modelling in large, data-poor basins.

  18. Spatial sensitivity analysis of snow cover data in a distributed rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Berezowski, T.; Nossent, J.; Chormański, J.; Batelaan, O.

    2015-04-01

    As the availability of spatially distributed data sets for distributed rainfall-runoff modelling is strongly increasing, more attention should be paid to the influence of the quality of the data on the calibration. While a lot of progress has been made on using distributed data in simulations of hydrological models, sensitivity of spatial data with respect to model results is not well understood. In this paper we develop a spatial sensitivity analysis method for spatial input data (snow cover fraction - SCF) for a distributed rainfall-runoff model to investigate when the model is differently subjected to SCF uncertainty in different zones of the model. The analysis was focussed on the relation between the SCF sensitivity and the physical and spatial parameters and processes of a distributed rainfall-runoff model. The methodology is tested for the Biebrza River catchment, Poland, for which a distributed WetSpa model is set up to simulate 2 years of daily runoff. The sensitivity analysis uses the Latin-Hypercube One-factor-At-a-Time (LH-OAT) algorithm, which employs different response functions for each spatial parameter representing a 4 × 4 km snow zone. The results show that the spatial patterns of sensitivity can be easily interpreted by co-occurrence of different environmental factors such as geomorphology, soil texture, land use, precipitation and temperature. Moreover, the spatial pattern of sensitivity under different response functions is related to different spatial parameters and physical processes. The results clearly show that the LH-OAT algorithm is suitable for our spatial sensitivity analysis approach and that the SCF is spatially sensitive in the WetSpa model. The developed method can be easily applied to other models and other spatial data.

  19. Rainfall Runoff Modelling for Cedar Creek using HEC-HMS model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathak, P.; Kalra, A.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall-runoff modelling studies are carried out for the purpose of basin and river management. Different models have been effectively used to examine relationships between rainfall and runoff. Cedar Creek Watershed Basin, the largest tributary of St. Josephs River, located in northeastern Indiana, was selected as a study area. The HEC-HMS model developed by US Army Corps of Engineers was used for the hydrological modelling. The national elevation and national hydrography data was obtained from United States Geological Survey National Map Viewer and the SSURGO soil data was obtained from United States Department of Agriculture. The watershed received hypothetical uniform rainfall for a duration of 13 hours. The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number and Unit Hydrograph methods were used for simulating surface runoff. The simulation provided hydrological details about the quantity and variability of runoff in the watershed. The runoff for different curve numbers was computed for the same basin and rainfall, and it was found that outflow peaked at an earlier time with a higher value for higher curve numbers than for smaller curve numbers. It was also noticed that the impact on outflow values nearly doubled with an increase of curve number of 10 for each subbasin in the watershed. The results from the current analysis may aid water managers in effectively managing the water resources within the basin. 1 Graduate Student, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Southern Illinois University Carbondale, Carbondale, Illinois, 62901-6603 2 Development Review Division, Clark County Public Works, 500 S. Grand Central Parkway, Las Vegas, NV 89155, USA

  20. Scale dependence of Hortonian rainfall-runoff processes in a semiarid environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, L.; Sela, S.; Svoray, T.; Assouline, S.

    2016-07-01

    Scale dependence of Hortonian rainfall-runoff processes has received much attention in the literature but has not been fully resolved. To further explore this issue, a recently developed model was applied to simulate rainfall-infiltration-runoff processes at multiple spatial scales. The model consists of the coupling between a two-dimensional runoff routing module and a two-layer infiltration module, thus accounting for spatial variability in soil properties, soil surface sealing, topography, and partial vegetation cover. A 76 m2 semiarid experimental plot with sparse cover of vegetation patches and a sealed soil surface in inter-patch bare areas was used as a representative elementary area (REA). A series of four larger artificial plots of different areas was created based on this REA to examine the scale dependence of rainfall-runoff relationships in the case of stationary heterogeneity. Results show that runoff depth (or runoff coefficient) decreases with increasing scale. This trend is more prominent at scales less than 10 times the REA length. Power law relationships can quantitatively describe the scaling law. The major mechanism of the scale effect is run-on infiltration. However, rainfall intensity and soil properties can both affect the scaling trend through their interaction with run-on. Higher intensity and less temporal variability of rainfall can both reduce the scale effect. Temporally intermittent rainfall may produce spatially oscillating infiltration rates at large scales. Vegetation patterns are another factor that may affect the scaling. Random-vegetation patterns, compared with regular patterns with similar statistical properties, change the spatial distributions, but do not significantly change either the total amount and statistical properties of infiltration and runoff or the scale dependence of the rainfall-runoff process.

  1. The role of observation uncertainty in the calibration of hydrologic rainfall-runoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Ghizzoni

    2007-06-01

    Full Text Available Hydrologic rainfall-runoff models are usually calibrated with reference to a limited number of recorded flood events, for which rainfall and runoff measurements are available. In this framework, model's parameters consistency depends on the number of both events and hydrograph points used for calibration, and on measurements reliability. Recently, to make users aware of application limits, major attention has been devoted to the estimation of uncertainty in hydrologic modelling. Here a simple numerical experiment is proposed, that allows the analysis of uncertainty in hydrologic rainfall-runoff modelling associated to both quantity and quality of available data.

    A distributed rainfall-runoff model based on geomorphologic concepts has been used. The experiment involves the analysis of an ensemble of model runs, and its overall set up holds if the model is to be applied in different catchments and climates, or even if a different hydrologic model is used. With reference to a set of 100 synthetic rainfall events characterized by a given rainfall volume, the effect of uncertainty in parameters calibration is studied. An artificial truth – perfect observation – is created by using the model in a known configuration. An external source of uncertainty is introduced by assuming realistic, i.e. uncertain, discharge observations to calibrate the model. The range of parameters' values able to "reproduce" the observation is studied. Finally, the model uncertainty is evaluated and discussed. The experiment gives useful indications about the number of both events and data points needed for a careful and stable calibration of a specific model, applied in a given climate and catchment. Moreover, an insight on the expected and maximum error in flood peak discharge simulations is given: errors ranging up to 40% are to be expected if parameters are calibrated on insufficient data sets.

  2. Applicability of open rainfall data to event-scale urban rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Niemi, Tero J.; Warsta, Lassi; Taka, Maija; Hickman, Brandon; Pulkkinen, Seppo; Krebs, Gerald; Moisseev, Dmitri N.; Koivusalo, Harri; Kokkonen, Teemu

    2017-04-01

    Rainfall-runoff simulations in urban environments require meteorological input data with high temporal and spatial resolutions. The availability of precipitation data is constantly increasing due to the shift towards more open data sharing. However, the applicability of such data for urban runoff assessments is often unknown. Here, the feasibility of Finnish Meteorological Institute's open rain gauge and open weather radar data as input sources was studied by conducting Storm Water Management Model simulations at a very small (33.5 ha) urban catchment in Helsinki, Finland. In addition to the open data sources, data were also available from two research gauges, one of them located on-site, and from a research radar. The results confirmed the importance of local precipitation measurements for urban rainfall-runoff simulations, implying the suitability of open gauge data to be largely dictated by the gauge's distance from the catchment. Performance of open radar data with 5 min and 1 km2 resolution was acceptable in terms of runoff reproduction, albeit peak flows were constantly and flow volumes often underestimated. Gauge adjustment and advection interpolation were found to improve the quality of the radar data, and at least gauge adjustment should be performed when open radar data are used. Finally, utilizing dual-polarization capabilities of radars has a potential to improve rainfall estimates for high intensity storms although more research is still needed.

  3. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  4. Multi-criteria validation of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Modarres

    2008-12-01

    Full Text Available In this study we propose a comprehensive multi-criteria validation test for rainfall-runoff modeling by artificial neural networks. This study applies 17 global statistics and 3 additional non-parametric tests to evaluate the ANNs. The weakness of global statistics for validation of ANN is demonstrated by rainfall-runoff modeling of the Plasjan Basin in the western region of the Zayandehrud watershed, Iran. Although the global statistics showed that the multi layer perceptron with 4 hidden layers (MLP4 is the best ANN for the basin comparing with other MLP networks and empirical regression model, but the non-parametric tests illustrate that neither the ANNs nor the regression model are able to reproduce the probability distribution of observed runoff in validation phase. However, the MLP4 network is the best network to reproduce the mean and variance of the observed runoff based on non-parametric tests. The performance of ANNs and empirical model was also demonstrated for low-medium and high flows. Although the MLP4 network gives the best performance among ANNs for low-medium and high flows based on different statistics but the empirical model shows better results. However, none of the models is able to simulate the frequency distribution of low-medium and high flows according to non-parametric tests. This study illustrates that the modelers should select appropriate and relevant evaluation measures from the set of existing metrics based on the particular requirements of each individual applications.

  5. Integration of rainfall/runoff and geomorphological analyses flood hazard in small catchments: case studies from the southern Apennines (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palumbo, Manuela; Ascione, Alessandra; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    We present the first results of an analysis of flood hazard in ungauged mountain catchments that are associated with intensely urbanized alluvial fans. Assessment of hydrological hazard has been based on the integration of rainfall/runoff modelling of drainage basins with geomorphological analysis and mapping. Some small and steep, ungauged mountain catchments located in various areas of the southern Apennines, in southern Italy, have been chosen as test sites. In the last centuries, the selected basins have been subject to heavy and intense precipitation events, which have caused flash floods with serious damages in the correlated alluvial fan areas. Available spatial information (regional technical maps, DEMs, land use maps, geological/lithological maps, orthophotos) and an automated GIS-based procedure (ArcGis tools and ArcHydro tools) have been used to extract morphological, hydrological and hydraulic parameters. Such parameters have been used to run the HEC (Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers) software (GeoHMS, GeoRAS, HMS and RAS) based on rainfall-runoff models, which have allowed the hydrological and hydraulic simulations. As the floods occurred in the studied catchments have been debris flows dominated, the solid load simulation has been also performed. In order to validate the simulations, we have compared results of the modelling with the effects produced by past floods. Such effects have been quantified through estimations of both the sediment volumes within each catchment that have the potential to be mobilised (pre-event) during a sediment transfer event, and the volume of sediments delivered by the debris flows at basins' outlets (post-event). The post-event sediment volume has been quantified through post-event surveys and Lidar data. Evaluation of the pre-event sediment volumes in single catchments has been based on mapping of sediment storages that may constitute source zones of bed load transport and debris flows. For

  6. Modelling urban rainfall-runoff responses using an experimental, two-tiered physical modelling environment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, Daniel; Pattison, Ian; Yu, Dapeng

    2016-04-01

    Surface water (pluvial) flooding occurs when rainwater from intense precipitation events is unable to infiltrate into the subsurface or drain via natural or artificial drainage channels. Surface water flooding poses a serious hazard to urban areas across the world, with the UK's perceived risk appearing to have increased in recent years due to surface water flood events seeming more severe and frequent. Surface water flood risk currently accounts for 1/3 of all UK flood risk, with approximately two million people living in urban areas at risk of a 1 in 200-year flood event. Research often focuses upon using numerical modelling techniques to understand the extent, depth and severity of actual or hypothetical flood scenarios. Although much research has been conducted using numerical modelling, field data available for model calibration and validation is limited due to the complexities associated with data collection in surface water flood conditions. Ultimately, the data which numerical models are based upon is often erroneous and inconclusive. Physical models offer a novel, alternative and innovative environment to collect data within, creating a controlled, closed system where independent variables can be altered independently to investigate cause and effect relationships. A physical modelling environment provides a suitable platform to investigate rainfall-runoff processes occurring within an urban catchment. Despite this, physical modelling approaches are seldom used in surface water flooding research. Scaled laboratory experiments using a 9m2, two-tiered 1:100 physical model consisting of: (i) a low-cost rainfall simulator component able to simulate consistent, uniformly distributed (>75% CUC) rainfall events of varying intensity, and; (ii) a fully interchangeable, modular plot surface have been conducted to investigate and quantify the influence of a number of terrestrial and meteorological factors on overland flow and rainfall-runoff patterns within a modelled

  7. Calibration of Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Models Using Global Optimization

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Chao Zhang

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Parameter optimization for the conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR model has always been the difficult problem in hydrology since watershed hydrological model is high-dimensional and nonlinear with multimodal and nonconvex response surface and its parameters are obviously related and complementary. In the research presented here, the shuffled complex evolution (SCE-UA global optimization method was used to calibrate the Xinanjiang (XAJ model. We defined the ideal data and applied the method to observed data. Our results show that, in the case of ideal data, the data length did not affect the parameter optimization for the hydrological model. If the objective function was selected appropriately, the proposed method found the true parameter values. In the case of observed data, we applied the technique to different lengths of data (1, 2, and 3 years and compared the results with ideal data. We found that errors in the data and model structure lead to significant uncertainties in the parameter optimization.

  8. Analysis of one dimension migration law from rainfall runoff on urban roof

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiwei, Chen

    2017-08-01

    Research was taken on the hydrology and water quality process in the natural rain condition and water samples were collected and analyzed. The pollutant were included SS, COD and TN. Based on the mass balance principle, one dimension migration model was built for the rainfall runoff pollution in surface. The difference equation was developed according to the finite difference method, by applying the Newton iteration method for solving it. The simulated pollutant concentration process was in consistent with the measured value on model, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was higher than 0.80. The model had better practicability, which provided evidence for effectively utilizing urban rainfall resource, non-point source pollution of making management technologies and measures, sponge city construction, and so on.

  9. Enrichment behavior and transport mechanism of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Bin; Han, Feng; Lin, Zhongrong; Wang, Xuejun

    2012-12-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported by surface runoff result in nonpoint source pollution and jeopardize aquatic ecosystems. The transport mechanism of PAHs during rainfall-runoff events has been rarely studied regarding pervious areas. An experimental system was setup to simulate the runoff pollution process on PAHs-contaminated soil. The enrichment behavior of soil-bound PAHs was investigated. The results show that soil organic matters (SOM), rather than clay particles, seem to be the main carrier of PAHs. The enrichment is highly conditioned on runoff and erosion processes, and its magnitude varies among PAH compounds. It is not feasible to build a simple and universal relationship between enrichment ratio and sediment discharge following the traditional enrichment theory. To estimate the flux of PAHs from pervious areas, soil erosion process has to be clearly understood, and both organic carbon content and composition of SOM should be factored into the calculation.

  10. Transport mechanisms of soil-bound mercury in the erosion process during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Xin; Zhang, Juan; Han, Feng

    2016-08-01

    Soil contamination by mercury (Hg) is a global environmental issue. In watersheds with a significant soil Hg storage, soil erosion during rainfall-runoff events can result in nonpoint source (NPS) Hg pollution and therefore, can extend its environmental risk from soils to aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, transport mechanisms of soil-bound Hg in the erosion process have not been explored directly, and how different fractions of soil organic matter (SOM) impact transport is not fully understood. This study investigated transport mechanisms based on rainfall-runoff simulation experiments. The experiments simulated high-intensity and long-duration rainfall conditions, which can produce significant soil erosion and NPS pollution. The enrichment ratio (ER) of total mercury (THg) was the key variable in exploring the mechanisms. The main study findings include the following: First, the ER-sediment flux relationship for Hg depends on soil composition, and no uniform ER-sediment flux function exists for different soils. Second, depending on soil composition, significantly more Hg could be released from a less polluted soil in the early stage of large rainfall events. Third, the heavy fraction of SOM (i.e., the remnant organic matter coating on mineral particles) has a dominant influence on the enrichment behavior and transport mechanisms of Hg, while clay mineral content exhibits a significant, but indirect, influence. The study results imply that it is critical to quantify the SOM composition in addition to total organic carbon (TOC) for different soils in the watershed to adequately model the NPS pollution of Hg and spatially prioritize management actions in a heterogeneous watershed.

  11. A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

    2017-04-01

    The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for

  12. Comparing flow duration curve and rainfall-runoff modelling for predicting daily runoff in ungauged catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Li, Ming

    2015-06-01

    Predicting daily runoff time series in ungauged catchments is both important and challenging. For the last few decades, the rainfall-runoff (RR) modelling approach has been the method of choice. There have been very few studies reported in literature which attempt to use flow duration curve (FDC) to predict daily runoff time series. This study comprehensively compares the two approaches using an extensive dataset (228 catchments) for a large region of south-eastern Australia and provides guidelines for choosing the suitable method. For each approach we used the nearest neighbour method and two weightings - a 5-donor simple mathematical average (SA) and a 5-donor inverse-distance weighting (5-IDW) - to predict daily runoff time series. The results show that 5-IDW was noticeably better than a single donor to predict daily runoff time series, especially for the FDC approach. The RR modelling approach calibrated against daily runoff outperformed the FDC approach for predicting high flows. The FDC approach was better at predicting medium to low flows in traditional calibration against the Nash-Sutcliffe-Efficiency or Root Mean Square Error, but when calibrated against a low flow objective function, both the FDC and rainfall-runoff models performed equally well in simulating the low flows. These results indicate that both methods can be further improved to simulate daily hydrographs describing the range of flow metrics in ungauged catchments. Further studies should be carried out for improving the accuracy of predicted FDC in ungauged catchments, including improving the FDC model structure and parameter fitting.

  13. Evaluating the robustness of conceptual rainfall-runoff models under climate variability in northern Tunisia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Ruelland, D.; Tramblay, Y.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2017-07-01

    To evaluate the impact of climate change on water resources at the catchment scale, not only future projections of climate are necessary but also robust rainfall-runoff models that must be fairly reliable under changing climate conditions. The aim of this study was thus to assess the robustness of three conceptual rainfall-runoff models (GR4j, HBV and IHACRES) on five basins in northern Tunisia under long-term climate variability, in the light of available future climate scenarios for this region. The robustness of the models was evaluated using a differential split sample test based on a climate classification of the observation period that simultaneously accounted for precipitation and temperature conditions. The study catchments include the main hydrographical basins in northern Tunisia, which produce most of the surface water resources in the country. A 30-year period (1970-2000) was used to capture a wide range of hydro-climatic conditions. The calibration was based on the Kling-Gupta Efficiency (KGE) criterion, while model transferability was evaluated based on the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency criterion and volume error. The three hydrological models were shown to behave similarly under climate variability. The models simulated the runoff pattern better when transferred to wetter and colder conditions than to drier and warmer ones. It was shown that their robustness became unacceptable when climate conditions involved a decrease of more than 25% in annual precipitation and an increase of more than +1.75 °C in annual mean temperatures. The reduction in model robustness may be partly due to the climate dependence of some parameters. When compared to precipitation and temperature projections in the region, the limits of transferability obtained in this study are generally respected for short and middle term. For long term projections under the most pessimistic emission gas scenarios, the limits of transferability are generally not respected, which may hamper the

  14. Modeling of the Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Process Through Regressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problems associated with the assessment of water resources of a river, the modeling of the rainfall-runoff process (RRP allows the deduction of runoff missing data and to extend its record, since generally the information available on precipitation is larger. It also enables the estimation of inputs to reservoirs, when their building led to the suppression of the gauging station. The simplest mathematical model that can be set for the RRP is the linear regression or curve on a monthly basis. Such a model is described in detail and is calibrated with the simultaneous record of monthly rainfall and runoff in Ballesmi hydrometric station, which covers 35 years. Since the runoff of this station has an important contribution from the spring discharge, the record is corrected first by removing that contribution. In order to do this a procedure was developed based either on the monthly average regional runoff coefficients or on nearby and similar watershed; in this case the Tancuilín gauging station was used. Both stations belong to the Partial Hydrologic Region No. 26 (Lower Rio Panuco and are located within the state of San Luis Potosi, México. The study performed indicates that the monthly regression model, due to its conceptual approach, faithfully reproduces monthly average runoff volumes and achieves an excellent approximation in relation to the dispersion, proved by calculation of the means and standard deviations.

  15. Multi-objective calibration of a spatially semi-distributed rainfall runoff model and its snow water equivalent module.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman; Danáčová, Michaela; Sleziak, Patrik; Kotríková, Katarína

    2016-04-01

    The snow cover is an important environmental and water management factor in mid latitudes. From the water management point of view the impact of the water accumulated in the snow cover is significant mainly during the spring season when it's melting causes a significant flooding threat when melting is accompanied by precipitation (rain on snow floods). Modelling of spatial and temporal distribution of the snow water equivalent is therefore an important component of rainfall-runoff models. The main objective of this work was to study the possibility to include information on the spatial distribution of the snow cover into runoff modelling and evaluate the quality of the simulation of both of the snow water equivalent and catchment runoff. A conceptual semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model was used in order to model the snow water equivalent in a daily time step. In order to calibrate and validate the model a multi-calibration techniques were used taking into account both runoff from the catchment and the observed values of the snow water equivalents and snow heights in elevation and vegetation zones. The multi-objective calibration linearly combines two optimization functions and aggregates them into one. While the first optimization function compares observed and simulated flows, the second one is based on an indirect comparison of a snow water equivalent simulated by a rainfall-runoff model and the snow cover heights measured in rainfall gauges within the catchment. The aim of the paper is to optimize the ratio of the weights in the optimization. The methodology was tested on the Upper Hron River catchment, which could be considered as a mountainous catchment.

  16. Rainfall-runoff modelling for estimating Latonyanda River flow contributions to Luvuvhu River downstream of Albasini Dam

    Science.gov (United States)

    Odiyo, J. O.; Phangisa, J. I.; Makungo, R.

    Rainfall-runoff modelling was conducted to estimate the flows that Latonyanda River contribute to Luvuvhu River downstream of Albasini Dam. The confluence of Latonyanda and Luvuvhu Rivers is ungauged. The contributed flows compensate for upstream water abstractions and periodic lack of releases from Albasini Dam. The flow contributions from tributaries to Luvuvhu River are important for ecosystem sustenance, meeting downstream domestic and agricultural water demand and ecological water requirements particularly in Kruger National Park. The upper Latonyanda River Quaternary Catchment (LRQC), with streamflow gauging station number A9H027 was delineated and used for rainfall-runoff modelling. The simulation was done using Mike 11 NAM rainfall-runoff model. Calibration and verification runs of Mike 11 NAM rainfall-runoff model were carried out using data for periods of 4 and 2 years, respectively. The model was calibrated using shuffled complex evolution optimizer. The model efficiency was tested using coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), overall water balance error (OWBE) and percentage bias (PBIAS). The model parameters obtained from the upper LRQC were transferred and used together with rainfall and evaporation data for 40 years period in the simulation of runoff for the LRQC. The flows that Latonyanda River contribute to Luvuvhu River were computed by subtracting irrigation abstractions and runoff drained to Tshakhuma Dam from the simulated runoff time series of the LRQC. The observed and the simulated runoff showed similar trends and measures of performances for both calibration and verification runs fell within acceptable ranges. The pairs of values obtained for R2, RMSE, OWBE and PBIAS for calibration and verification were 0.86 and 0.73, 0.21 and 0.2, 2.1 and 1.3, and 4.1 and 3.4, respectively. The simulated runoff for LRQC correlated well with the areal rainfall showing that the results are reasonable. The mean and maximum daily

  17. Neural network emulation of a rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Abrahart

    2007-02-01

    Full Text Available The potential of an artificial neural network to perform simple non-linear hydrological transformations is examined. Four neural network models were developed to emulate different facets of a recognised non-linear hydrological transformation equation that possessed a small number of variables and contained no temporal component. The modeling process was based on a set of uniform random distributions. The cloning operation facilitated a direct comparison with the exact equation-based relationship. It also provided broader information about the power of a neural network to emulate existing equations and model non-linear relationships. Several comparisons with least squares multiple linear regression were performed. The first experiment involved a direct emulation of the Xinanjiang Rainfall-Runoff Model. The next two experiments were designed to assess the competencies of two neural solutions that were developed on a reduced number of inputs. This involved the omission and conflation of previous inputs. The final experiment used derived variables to model intrinsic but otherwise concealed internal relationships that are of hydrological interest. Two recent studies have suggested that neural solutions offer no worthwhile improvements in comparison to traditional weighted linear transfer functions for capturing the non-linear nature of hydrological relationships. Yet such fundamental properties are intrinsic aspects of catchment processes that cannot be excluded or ignored. The results from the four experiments that are reported in this paper are used to challenge the interpretations from these two earlier studies and thus further the debate with regards to the appropriateness of neural networks for hydrological modelling.

  18. Diagnostic evaluation of distributed physically based model at the REW scale (THREW) using rainfall-runoff event analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tian, F.; Sivapalan, M.; Li, H.; Hu, H.

    2007-12-01

    The importance of diagnostic analysis of hydrological models is increasingly recognized by the scientific community (M. Sivapalan, et al., 2003; H. V. Gupta, et al., 2007). Model diagnosis refers to model structures and parameters being identified not only by statistical comparison of system state variables and outputs but also by process understanding in a specific watershed. Process understanding can be gained by the analysis of observational data and model results at the specific watershed as well as through regionalization. Although remote sensing technology can provide valuable data about the inputs, state variables, and outputs of the hydrological system, observational rainfall-runoff data still constitute the most accurate, reliable, direct, and thus a basic component of hydrology related database. One critical question in model diagnostic analysis is, therefore, what signature characteristic can we extract from rainfall and runoff data. To this date only a few studies have focused on this question, such as Merz et al. (2006) and Lana-Renault et al. (2007), still none of these studies related event analysis with model diagnosis in an explicit, rigorous, and systematic manner. Our work focuses on the identification of the dominant runoff generation mechanisms from event analysis of rainfall-runoff data, including correlation analysis and analysis of timing pattern. The correlation analysis involves the identification of the complex relationship among rainfall depth, intensity, runoff coefficient, and antecedent conditions, and the timing pattern analysis aims to identify the clustering pattern of runoff events in relation to the patterns of rainfall events. Our diagnostic analysis illustrates the changing pattern of runoff generation mechanisms in the DMIP2 test watersheds located in Oklahoma region, which is also well recognized by numerical simulations based on TsingHua Representative Elementary Watershed (THREW) model. The result suggests the usefulness of

  19. Evaluating the impact of lower resolutions of digital elevation model on rainfall-runoff modeling for ungauged catchments.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghumman, Abul Razzaq; Al-Salamah, Ibrahim Saleh; AlSaleem, Saleem Saleh; Haider, Husnain

    2017-02-01

    Geomorphological instantaneous unit hydrograph (GIUH) usually uses geomorphologic parameters of catchment estimated from digital elevation model (DEM) for rainfall-runoff modeling of ungauged watersheds with limited data. Higher resolutions (e.g., 5 or 10 m) of DEM play an important role in the accuracy of rainfall-runoff models; however, such resolutions are expansive to obtain and require much greater efforts and time for preparation of inputs. In this research, a modeling framework is developed to evaluate the impact of lower resolutions (i.e., 30 and 90 m) of DEM on the accuracy of Clark GIUH model. Observed rainfall-runoff data of a 202-km(2) catchment in a semiarid region was used to develop direct runoff hydrographs for nine rainfall events. Geographical information system was used to process both the DEMs. Model accuracy and errors were estimated by comparing the model results with the observed data. The study found (i) high model efficiencies greater than 90% for both the resolutions, and (ii) that the efficiency of Clark GIUH model does not significantly increase by enhancing the resolution of the DEM from 90 to 30 m. Thus, it is feasible to use lower resolutions (i.e., 90 m) of DEM in the estimation of peak runoff in ungauged catchments with relatively less efforts. Through sensitivity analysis (Monte Carlo simulations), the kinematic wave parameter and stream length ratio are found to be the most significant parameters in velocity and peak flow estimations, respectively; thus, they need to be carefully estimated for calculation of direct runoff in ungauged watersheds using Clark GIUH model.

  20. Extending a rainfall-runoff model for lowland catchments from lumped to semi-distributed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Claudia; Torfs, Paul; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2016-04-01

    The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) is a parametric rainfall-runoff model for catchments with shallow groundwater (Brauer et al., 2014ab). WALRUS was developed using data and experience from two Dutch experimental catchments: the Hupsel Brook catchment (6.5 km2) and the Cabauw polder (0.5 km2). We identified key processes for runoff generation in lowland catchments, notably (1) groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, (2) wetness-dependent flow routes, (3) groundwater-surface water feedbacks and (4) seepage and surface water supply, and accounted for these in the model structure. Up to now, WALRUS has been used in a lumped manner. However, water managers and researchers have expressed an interest in a semi-distributed version for application to larger catchments with varying forcing and catchment characteristics and to investigate the effect of groundwater flow within the catchment on modelled variables (e.g. groundwater depth). We combined WALRUS and a model for 2-dimensional groundwater flow into a simple modelling framework. WALRUS was already designed to cope with groundwater flow into or out of the model domain, because seepage and lateral groundwater flow are common in lowlands. In the semi-distributed version, we used this feature to couple different WALRUS elements (grid cells or subcatchments) to each other. Groundwater flow was computed using a digital elevation model, groundwater depths computed by WALRUS, soil transmissivity data and Darcy's law. Finally, we implemented a surface routing model including backwater effects, which are relevant in areas with little relief. With respect to the lumped version, the semi-distributed requires more data. Therefore, we investigated the added value of different data sources (forcing, elevation, soil, surface water) separately. We will present the rationale behind the semi-distributed model and show how the model structure compares to observations and and simulations without lateral transport. C.C. Brauer

  1. Rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS in a small inhomogeneous basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ponížilová, Iva; Unucka, Jan; Říhová, Veronika

    2014-05-01

    The contribution focuses on the applicability of the hydrologic rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS to verify the effect of inhomogeneities of the basin surface. The simulation of an extreme rainfall-runoff episode using the HEC-HMS model should prove the influence of basin inhomogeneity on the speed and volume of runoff and the potential of watersheds on runoff mitigation. The area of interest is situated in North Bohemia, Czech Republic. Inhomogeneity of the Robecsky stream basin is caused by different physical-geographic conditions in the basin of the main reaches of the Robecsky stream and its major left tributary which is the Bobri stream. Before their confluence, both streams have a comparable catchment area of about 130 km2. Significant differences are manifested in average altitude of the basin, basin shape, basin slope, time of concentration and the proportion of forest areas. The Bobri stream shows more extreme runoff characteristics in combination with a smaller area of forestation. Another important factor affecting runoff from the basin is the proportion of watersheds that accumulate water in the landscape and cause runoff mitigation and slowdown. To illustrate the influence of watersheds Machovo Lake on the Robecsky stream and Holansky pond on the Bobri stream were selected. Machovo Lake is the third largest watershed in the territory of the Czech Republic. Holansky pond is the largest of the system of Holansky ponds. The Robecsky stream has the lowest runoff coefficient from the entire Ploucnice basin. The lakes surface-drainage area ratio is approximately 1.7% of the total catchment area of the Robecsky stream. The rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS was utilized for the analysis and to determine the volume of runoff the method of CN curves was used that depends on hydrological properties of soils. For schematisation of extreme runoff conditions of the basin the precipitation period from 6th to 8th August 2010 was selected. Extremeness of peak flows of the

  2. Two Conceptual Approaches For The Continuous Time Computation of Infiltration and Surface Runoff In Spatially Distributed Rainfall-runoff Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brath, A.; Crosta, G.; Frattini, P.; Montanari, A.; Moretti, G.

    Distributed rainfall-runoff models are often applied for performing hydrological sim- ulations extended to the time span of single flood events, in order to limit the compu- tational effort. The increasing availability of computing powers makes now possible to move towards standard techniques for flood hydrograph estimation based upon the application of continuous simulation distributed models. These allow to perform hy- drological analyses that would be not possible by using lumped models, such as, for instance, the assessment of the effects on river discharges of spatially distributed land- use changes. In order to perform spatially-distributed and continuous time hydrologi- cal simulations, one has to represent the infiltration process at the local scale by using schemes which are capable of simulating the soil water content redistribution during the interstorm periods. To this end, the present study aims at presenting an application of two conceptual schemes, which have been derived by modifying the event-based Green-Ampt and Curve Number infiltration models. The proposed approaches have been embedded in a spatially distributed, DEM-based, rainfall-runoff model. An ap- plication of the model is presented, that refers to a river basin located in Northern Italy.

  3. Bayesian Assessment of the Uncertainties of Estimates of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model Parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Silva, F. E. O. E.; Naghettini, M. D. C.; Fernandes, W.

    2014-12-01

    This paper evaluated the uncertainties associated with the estimation of the parameters of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model, through the use of Bayesian inference techniques by Monte Carlo simulation. The Pará River sub-basin, located in the upper São Francisco river basin, in southeastern Brazil, was selected for developing the studies. In this paper, we used the Rio Grande conceptual hydrologic model (EHR/UFMG, 2001) and the Markov Chain Monte Carlo simulation method named DREAM (VRUGT, 2008a). Two probabilistic models for the residues were analyzed: (i) the classic [Normal likelihood - r ≈ N (0, σ²)]; and (ii) a generalized likelihood (SCHOUPS & VRUGT, 2010), in which it is assumed that the differences between observed and simulated flows are correlated, non-stationary, and distributed as a Skew Exponential Power density. The assumptions made for both models were checked to ensure that the estimation of uncertainties in the parameters was not biased. The results showed that the Bayesian approach proved to be adequate to the proposed objectives, enabling and reinforcing the importance of assessing the uncertainties associated with hydrological modeling.

  4. [Monitoring and analysis on evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality in urban area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wen; Li, Huai-En; Li, Jia-Ke

    2013-02-01

    In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011, and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed: 1. the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; 2. the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; 3. the runoff water quality of the short early fine days was better than that of long early fine days, and the last runoff water quality was better than that of the initial runoff in the same rainfall process; 4. the concentration reduction of the grassland was notable, and the reduction rate of the grassland which is 1.0 meter wide of the roof runoff pollutants such as COD and nitrogen reached 30%.

  5. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING NUMERICAL AND REGRESSION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Behmanesh

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed have an important role in water resources engineering. Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff process in the watershed because of non-linear nature of rainfall-runoff relationship, vast data requirement and physical models hardness. The main object of this research was to model the rainfall-runoff relationship at the Turkey River in Mississippi. In this research, two numerical models including ANN and ANFIS were used to model the rainfall-runoff process and the best model was chosen. Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and then the best equation was selected from regression analysis. The obtained results from the numerical and regression modeling were compared each other. The comparison showed that the model obtained from ANFIS modeling was better than the model obtained from regression modeling. The results also stated that the Turkey river flow rate had a logical relationship with one and two days ago flow rate and one, two and three days ago rainfall values.

  6. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING NUMERICAL AND REGRESSION METHODS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Behmanesh

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed have an important role in water resources engineering. Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff process in the watershed because of non-linear nature of rainfall-runoff relationship, vast data requirement and physical models hardness. The main object of this research was to model the rainfall-runoff relationship at the Turkey River in Mississippi. In this research, two numerical models including ANN and ANFIS were used to model the rainfall-runoff process and the best model was chosen. Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and then the best equation was selected from regression analysis. The obtained results from the numerical and regression modeling were compared each other. The comparison showed that the model obtained from ANFIS modeling was better than the model obtained from regression modeling. The results also stated that the Turkey river flow rate had a logical relationship with one and two days ago flow rate and one, two and three days ago rainfall values.

  7. Estimation of Model and Parameter Uncertainty For A Distributed Rainfall-runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Engeland, K.

    The distributed rainfall-runoff model Ecomag is applied as a regional model for nine catchments in the NOPEX area in Sweden. Ecomag calculates streamflow on a daily time resolution. The posterior distribution of the model parameters is conditioned on the observed streamflow in all nine catchments, and calculated using Bayesian statistics. The distribution is estimated by Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC). The Bayesian method requires a definition of the likelihood of the parameters. Two alter- native formulations are used. The first formulation is a subjectively chosen objective function describing the goodness of fit between the simulated and observed streamflow as it is used in the GLUE framework. The second formulation is to use a more statis- tically correct likelihood function that describes the simulation errors. The simulation error is defined as the difference between log-transformed observed and simulated streamflows. A statistical model for the simulation errors is constructed. Some param- eters are dependent on the catchment, while others depend on climate. The statistical and the hydrological parameters are estimated simultaneously. Confidence intervals, due to the uncertainty of the Ecomag parameters, for the simulated streamflow are compared for the two likelihood functions. Confidence intervals based on the statis- tical model for the simulation errors are also calculated. The results indicate that the parameter uncertainty depends on the formulation of the likelihood function. The sub- jectively chosen likelihood function gives relatively wide confidence intervals whereas the 'statistical' likelihood function gives more narrow confidence intervals. The statis- tical model for the simulation errors indicates that the structural errors of the model are as least as important as the parameter uncertainty.

  8. A Study of Rainfall-Runoff Response in a Catchment Using TOPMODEL

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    孙菽芬; 邓惠平

    2004-01-01

    The simplicity of Topography-based hydrological model (TOPMODEL),as a way of reflecting the topographic controls on soil water storage and runoff generation,has become more attractive and morepopular for land surface process study since digital elevation models (DEMs) have become widely available.In this paper,the effect of the topography index on soil water storage distribution,which is the key to TOPMODEL,is explained.Then a simple water cycle model for estimating other components of the surface water cycle is developed,which is implemented into the TOPMODEL to integrate the water cycle of the catchment.Using the output of a DEM from 100 m × 100 m resolution data and a single flow direction algorithm,the index distribution function is calculated for a catchment (around 2500 km2 )in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River under different channel initiation thresholds.Finally,the daily and monthly rainfall-runoff response from 1960 to 1987 for the catchment is simulated with the TOPMODEL coupled with the simple water cycle model.

  9. [Local sensitivity and its stationarity analysis for urban rainfall runoff modelling].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lin, Jie; Huang, Jin-Liang; Du, Peng-Fei; Tu, Zhen-Shun; Li, Qing-Sheng

    2010-09-01

    Sensitivity analysis of urban-runoff simulation is a crucial procedure for parameter identification and uncertainty analysis. Local sensitivity analysis using Morris screening method was carried out for urban rainfall runoff modelling based on Storm Water Management Model (SWMM). The results showed that Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv are the most sensitive parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow. Concerning total runoff volume, the sensitive indices of Area, % Imperv and Dstore-Imperv were 0.46-1.0, 0.61-1.0, -0.050(-) - 5.9, respectively; while with respect to peak runoff, they were 0.48-0.89, 0.59-0.83, 0(-) -9.6, respectively. In comparison, the most sensitive indices (Morris) for all parameters with regard to total runoff volume and peak flow appeared in the rainfall event with least rainfall; and less sensitive indices happened in the rainfall events with heavier rainfall. Furthermore, there is considerable variability in sensitive indices for each rainfall event. % Zero-Imperv's coefficient variations have the largest values among all parameters for total runoff volume and peak flow, namely 221.24% and 228.10%. On the contrary, the coefficient variations of conductivity among all parameters for both total runoff volume and peak flow are the smallest, namely 0.

  10. Diagnosing peak-discharge power laws observed in rainfall runoff events in Goodwin Creek experimental watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Furey, Peter R.; Gupta, Vijay K.

    2007-11-01

    Observations from the Goodwin Creek experimental watershed (GCEW), Mississippi show that peak-discharge Q( A) and drainage area A are related, on average, by a power law or scaling relationship, Q( A) = αAθ, during single rainfall-runoff events. Observations also show that α and θ change between events, and, based on a recent analysis of 148 events, observations indicate that α and θ change because of corresponding changes in the depth, duration, and spatial variability of excess-rainfall. To improve our physical understanding of these observations, a 5-step framework for diagnosing observed power laws, or other space-time patterns in a basin, is articulated and applied to GCEW using a combination of analysis and numerical simulations. Diagnostic results indicate how the power laws are connected to physical conditions and processes. Derived expressions for α and θ show that if excess-rainfall depth is fixed then there is a decreasing concave relationship between α and excess-rainfall duration, and an increasing and slightly convex relationship between θ and excess rainfall duration. These trends are consistent with observations only when hillslope velocity vh is given a physically realistic value near 0.1 m/s. If vh ≫ 0.1 m/s, then the predicted trends deviate from observed trends. Results also suggest that trends in α and θ can be impacted by the dependence of vh and link velocity vl on excess-rainfall rate.

  11. An Emotional ANN (EANN) approach to modeling rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid

    2017-01-01

    This paper presents the first hydrological implementation of Emotional Artificial Neural Network (EANN), as a new generation of Artificial Intelligence-based models for daily rainfall-runoff (r-r) modeling of the watersheds. Inspired by neurophysiological form of brain, in addition to conventional weights and bias, an EANN includes simulated emotional parameters aimed at improving the network learning process. EANN trained by a modified version of back-propagation (BP) algorithm was applied to single and multi-step-ahead runoff forecasting of two watersheds with two distinct climatic conditions. Also to evaluate the ability of EANN trained by smaller training data set, three data division strategies with different number of training samples were considered for the training purpose. The overall comparison of the obtained results of the r-r modeling indicates that the EANN could outperform the conventional feed forward neural network (FFNN) model up to 13% and 34% in terms of training and verification efficiency criteria, respectively. The superiority of EANN over classic ANN is due to its ability to recognize and distinguish dry (rainless days) and wet (rainy days) situations using hormonal parameters of the artificial emotional system.

  12. Comparison of rainfall-runoff models for flood forecasting. Part 2: Calibration and evaluation of models

    OpenAIRE

    Bell, V. A.; Carrington, D.S.; Moore, R J

    2001-01-01

    The purpose of the project “Comparison of Rainfall-Runoff Models for Flood Forecasting” is to provide guidance to the Environment Agency on the choice of rainfall-runoff model for use in different catchments for flood forecasting purposes. A literature review of models presented in the Part 1 Report recognised that whilst there is a plethora of “brand-name” models there is much similarity between many of them. A rather small set of model functions is common to many models and they differ in t...

  13. Surface Rainfall-Runoff Analysis Using NRCS Curve Number and Semi-Distributed Model in Urban Watershed of Jeju Island, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yang, S. K.; Kar, K. K.; Lee, J. H.

    2015-12-01

    Rainfall-runoff modeling is a basic tool for assessing hydrological processes where natural features (geology and geography) play a pivotal role. Due to global warming, the trends of torrential rainfall and typhoon events have been found to increase spontaneously in Jeju Island of Korea. As such, the island has been shown distinctive hydrologic characteristics. The study therefore, attempts to analyze the diversified rainfall-runoff characteristics of Jeju Island during extreme hydrologic events. The study domain covers mostly the urban areas of island and the most prominent Hancheon Stream which restrains most of its overland runoff during rainfall. For watershed delineation, 30-m resolution's digital elevation model (DEM) generated from contours and 50 years' (1964-2013) historical rainfall data from the Korea meteorological administration (KMA) were used. Furthermore, geo-spatial data collected from the Korean society of agriculture engineers (KSAE) has been used for soil texture and land use classification. Some identical studies implied to predict semi-distributed (e.g. SWAT and WMS) watershed model runoff in the island. However, the significance of this study is that it considers a GIS semi-distributed model to imply NRCS curve number technique and predict accurate results for unique runoff characteristics, by considering high catchment slope. Rainfall data from 2009 to 2013 has been used as baseline information to estimate annual runoff variations, which has been used in the spatial and statistical analyses. The study infers that the simulated runoff percentages varied from 18% to 44%, accounting for the temporal fluctuations of rainfall. Afterwards, to assess the ten year interval relationship between rainfall-runoff, the study uses historical rainfall data of Jeju-si meteorological station and four rainfall station. Lastly, the ongoing rainfall-runoff analysis will be concluded by comparing the runoff result with SWAT model result.Keywords: NRCS curve

  14. Constraints of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modelling: trade-offs in hydrological state representation and model evaluation

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Vos, de N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.

    2005-01-01

    The application of Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) in rainfall-runoff modelling needs to be researched more extensively in order to appreciate and fulfil the potential of this modelling approach. This paper reports on the application of multi-layer feedforward ANNs for rainfall-runoff modelling of

  15. Analysis and Modeling of Time-Correlated Characteristics of Rainfall-Runoff Similarity in the Upstream Red River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuli Sang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We constructed a similarity model (based on Euclidean distance between rainfall and runoff to study time-correlated characteristics of rainfall-runoff similar patterns in the upstream Red River Basin and presented a detailed evaluation of the time correlation of rainfall-runoff similarity. The rainfall-runoff similarity was used to determine the optimum similarity. The results showed that a time-correlated model was found to be capable of predicting the rainfall-runoff similarity in the upstream Red River Basin in a satisfactory way. Both noised and denoised time series by thresholding the wavelet coefficients were applied to verify the accuracy of model. And the corresponding optimum similar sets obtained as the equation solution conditions showed an interesting and stable trend. On the whole, the annual mean similarity presented a gradually rising trend, for quantitatively estimating comprehensive influence of climate change and of human activities on rainfall-runoff similarity.

  16. Genetic algorithm optimized rainfall-runoff fuzzy inference system for row crop watersheds with claypan soils

    Science.gov (United States)

    The fuzzy logic algorithm has the ability to describe knowledge in a descriptive human-like manner in the form of simple rules using linguistic variables, and provides a new way of modeling uncertain or naturally fuzzy hydrological processes like non-linear rainfall-runoff relationships. Fuzzy infe...

  17. Multiobjective training of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents results on the application of various optimization algorithms for the training of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models. Multilayered feed-forward networks for forecasting discharge from two mesoscale catchments in different climatic regions have been developed for thi

  18. The ensemble particle filter (EnPF) in rainfall-runoff models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Delft, G.; El Serafy, G.Y.; Heemink, A.W.

    2009-01-01

    Rainfall-runoff models play a very important role in flood forecasting. However, these models contain large uncertainties caused by errors in both the model itself and the input data. Data assimilation techniques are being used to reduce these uncertainties. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the

  19. Multiobjective training of artificial neural networks for rainfall-runoff modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper presents results on the application of various optimization algorithms for the training of artificial neural network rainfall-runoff models. Multilayered feed-forward networks for forecasting discharge from two mesoscale catchments in different climatic regions have been developed for

  20. The ensemble particle filter (EnPF) in rainfall-runoff models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van Delft, G.; El Serafy, G.Y.; Heemink, A.W.

    2009-01-01

    Rainfall-runoff models play a very important role in flood forecasting. However, these models contain large uncertainties caused by errors in both the model itself and the input data. Data assimilation techniques are being used to reduce these uncertainties. The ensemble Kalman filter (EnKF) and the

  1. A study of non-linearity in rainfall-runoff response using 120 UK catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mathias, Simon A.; McIntyre, Neil; Oughton, Rachel H.

    2016-09-01

    This study presents a catchment characteristic sensitivity analysis concerning the non-linearity of rainfall-runoff response in 120 UK catchments. Two approaches were adopted. The first approach involved, for each catchment, regression of a power-law to flow rate gradient data for recession events only. This approach was referred to as the recession analysis (RA). The second approach involved calibrating a rainfall-runoff model to the full data set (both recession and non-recession events). The rainfall-runoff model was developed by combining a power-law streamflow routing function with a one parameter probability distributed model (PDM) for soil moisture accounting. This approach was referred to as the rainfall-runoff model (RM). Step-wise linear regression was used to derive regionalization equations for the three parameters. An advantage of the RM approach is that it utilizes much more of the observed data. Results from the RM approach suggest that catchments with high base-flow and low annual precipitation tend to exhibit greater non-linearity in rainfall-runoff response. In contrast, the results from the RA approach suggest that non-linearity is linked to low evaporative demand. The difference in results is attributed to the aggregation of storm-flow and base-flow into a single system giving rise to a seemingly more non-linear response when applying the RM approach to catchments that exhibit a strongly dual storm-flow base-flow response. The study also highlights the value and limitations in a regionlization context of aggregating storm-flow and base-flow pathways into a single non-linear routing function.

  2. Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land-use, or land-use management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fenicia

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible time-dependence of model parameters. The main hypothesis is that conceptual model parameters, although not measurable quantities, are representative of specific catchment attributes (e.g. geology, land-use, land management, topography. Hence, we assume that eventual trends in model parameters are representative of catchment attributes that may have changed over time. The available hydrological record involves ninety years of data, starting in 1911. During this period the Meuse catchment has undergone significant modifications. The catchment structural modifications, although documented, are not available as "hard-data". Hence, our results should be considered as "plausible hypotheses". The main motivation of this work is the "anomaly" found in the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse basin, where ninety years of rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent overestimation of the runoff in the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible causes for the "anomaly", including climatic variability, land-use change and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This aspect influenced the model design, which has been configured to account for different evaporation demand of growing forest. As a result of our analysis, we conclude that the lag time of the catchment has decreased significantly over time, which we attribute to more intensive drainage and river training works. Furthermore, we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with previous studies, where the effect of land-use change on

  3. Impact of carbonaceous materials in soil on the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiaolin; Zheng, Yi; Wu, Bin; Lin, Zhongrong; Han, Feng; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

    2013-11-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported from contaminated soils by surface runoff pose significant risk for aquatic ecosystems. Based on a rainfall-runoff simulation experiment, this study investigated the impact of carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil, identified by organic petrology analysis, on the transport of soil-bound PAHs under rainfall conditions. The hypothesis that composition of soil organic matter significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs was proved. CMs in soil, varying significantly in content, mobility and adsorption capacity, act differently on the transport of PAHs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon (BC) largely control the transport, as PAHs may be preferentially attached to them. Eventually, this study led to a rethink of the traditional enrichment theory. An important implication is that CMs in soil have to be explicitly considered to appropriately model the nonpoint source pollution of PAHs (possibly other hydrophobic chemicals as well) and assess its environmental risk.

  4. [Effect of constructed wetland on the purification of industrial zone rainfall runoff contaminated with phenanthrene].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jing, Dan-Dan; Wan, Jin-Quan; Ma, Yong-Wen; Li, Dong-Ya; Wang, Yan; Huang, Ming-Zhi

    2013-08-01

    According to the water characteristics of industrial rainfall runoff in the catchment of Tongsha Reservoir, Dongguan City, a subsurface-flow constructed wetland (SSFCW) was used to treat simulated rainfall and the spatial variation of removal efficiency of contaminants in the wetland bed was analyzed. The longitudinal and vertical variation of removal efficiency of COD, NH4(+) -N, TN, TP and phenanthrene were examined. Enzyme activity of polyphenol oxidase (PPO) and nitrate reductase (NR) along the wetland bed were analyzed as well, meanwhile, four biogeochemical indexes of the wetland system, including DO, pH, ORP and water temperature, were monitored and their influences on the removal efficiency of contaminants and enzyme activity were analyzed. Results showed that DO, pH, ORP, water temperature all presented a decreasing tendency along the wetland bed, and the removal of COD, TP and phenanthrene occurred mainly in the front quarter of the wetland system; in the vertical direction, DO and ORP in the upper wetland bed were significantly higher than those in the ground floor, suggesting that the horizontal subsurface system was in an anaerobic or anoxic condition. The removal rates of COD, TP, TN, NH4(+) -N and phenanthrene were 1.17-1.36, 2.04-2.11, 1.40-1.92, 1.37-2.30, and 1.07-1.36 times higher than those at the bottom, respectively. Therefore, the vertical variation of purification efficiency was more significant than the longitudinal variation. A significant positive correlation was determined between the enzyme activity of NR and the NO3(-) -N concentration, but the longitudinal variation in the enzyme activity of NR and PPO was not obvious.

  5. Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraedrich, K.

    2014-12-01

    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

  6. Performance and Probabilistic Verification of Regional Parameter Estimates for Conceptual Rainfall-runoff Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Franz, K.; Hogue, T.; Barco, J.

    2007-12-01

    Identification of appropriate parameter sets for simulation of streamflow in ungauged basins has become a significant challenge for both operational and research hydrologists. This is especially difficult in the case of conceptual models, when model parameters typically must be "calibrated" or adjusted to match streamflow conditions in specific systems (i.e. some of the parameters are not directly observable). This paper addresses the performance and uncertainty associated with transferring conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameters between basins within large-scale ecoregions. We use the National Weather Service's (NWS) operational hydrologic model, the SACramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model. A Multi-Step Automatic Calibration Scheme (MACS), using the Shuffle Complex Evolution (SCE), is used to optimize SAC-SMA parameters for a group of watersheds with extensive hydrologic records from the Model Parameter Estimation Experiment (MOPEX) database. We then explore "hydroclimatic" relationships between basins to facilitate regionalization of parameters for an established ecoregion in the southeastern United States. The impact of regionalized parameters is evaluated via standard model performance statistics as well as through generation of hindcasts and probabilistic verification procedures to evaluate streamflow forecast skill. Preliminary results show climatology ("climate neighbor") to be a better indicator of transferability than physical similarities or proximity ("nearest neighbor"). The mean and median of all the parameters within the ecoregion are the poorest choice for the ungauged basin. The choice of regionalized parameter set affected the skill of the ensemble streamflow hindcasts, however, all parameter sets show little skill in forecasts after five weeks (i.e. climatology is as good an indicator of future streamflows). In addition, the optimum parameter set changed seasonally, with the "nearest neighbor" showing the highest skill in the

  7. HYDROSCAPE: A SCAlable and ParallelizablE Rainfall Runoff Model for Hydrological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Di Lazzaro, M.; Zarlenga, A.; Majone, B.; Bellin, A.; Fiori, A.

    2015-12-01

    In this work we present HYDROSCAPE, an innovative streamflow routing method based on the travel time approach, and modeled through a fine-scale geomorphological description of hydrological flow paths. The model is designed aimed at being easily coupled with weather forecast or climate models providing the hydrological forcing, and at the same time preserving the geomorphological dispersion of the river network, which is kept unchanged independently on the grid size of rainfall input. This makes HYDROSCAPE particularly suitable for multi-scale applications, ranging from medium size catchments up to the continental scale, and to investigate the effects of extreme rainfall events that require an accurate description of basin response timing. Key feature of the model is its computational efficiency, which allows performing a large number of simulations for sensitivity/uncertainty analyses in a Monte Carlo framework. Further, the model is highly parsimonious, involving the calibration of only three parameters: one defining the residence time of hillslope response, one for channel velocity, and a multiplicative factor accounting for uncertainties in the identification of the potential maximum soil moisture retention in the SCS-CN method. HYDROSCAPE is designed with a simple and flexible modular structure, which makes it particularly prone to massive parallelization, customization according to the specific user needs and preferences (e.g., rainfall-runoff model), and continuous development and improvement. Finally, the possibility to specify the desired computational time step and evaluate streamflow at any location in the domain, makes HYDROSCAPE an attractive tool for many hydrological applications, and a valuable alternative to more complex and highly parametrized large scale hydrological models. Together with model development and features, we present an application to the Upper Tiber River basin (Italy), providing a practical example of model performance and

  8. Evaluation of removal of orthophosphate and ammonia from rainfall runoff using aboveground permeable reactive barrier composed of limestone and zeolite.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Srinivasan, Rajani; Hoffman, Dennis W; Wolfe, June E; Prcin, Lisa J

    2008-10-01

    This paper evaluates the design and performance of an Aboveground Permeable Reactive Barrier (APRB) system made of polyethylene mesh bags (FlowBags) containing crushed limestone and zeolite for adsorption of orthophosphate-P (PO4-P) and ammonia-N (NH4-N) from rainfall runoff. Laboratory batch experiments, simulated runoff experiments and actual APRB implementations were performed to evaluate the performance of the APRB. Batch experiments were performed to determine adsorption efficiency of crushed zeolite and limestone as reactive materials in APRB for removal of dissolved ammonium nitrogen and orthophosphate phosphorus from aqueous solutions under controlled laboratory conditions. Adsorption efficiencies of zeolite and limestone were tested individually and in combination. Results show adsorption efficiency increases when the materials are used in combination. Effects of particle size, contact time, pH, and temperature were studied. Major emphasis was given to short contact times because the contact of rainfall runoff water under field conditions with APRBs would be approximately 5 minutes. Maximum removal of approximately 70% PO4-P and NH4-N was seen at 45 degrees C in 5 minutes within a pH range of 8-11. Optimum adsorbent concentration was 0.3 ppm with 20 g limestone and 10 g of zeolites. Simulated field experiments and actual APRB field installations showed variable results. Results from field evaluations of APRB showed mixed results from very high to negligible removal of orthophosphate-P and ammonia-N at different monitoring sites and storm events. Such variability may be due to the design of the bags, other biotic and abiotic factors and various physical factors, which are absent in the laboratory conditions. Some APRB design problems were also observed under field conditions and solutions are suggested. Overall results indicate that APRBs composed of combinations of crushed zeolite and limestone will offer an effective low maintenance and green alternative

  9. Simultaneous Assimilation of Multiple Data into a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model using Variational Methods for Hydrological Forecasting Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwanenberg, D.; Alvarado Montero, R.; Sensoy Sorman, A.; Krahe, P.

    2015-12-01

    Data assimilation methods applied to hydrological applications have primarily focused on assimilating streamflow and, more recently, soil moisture observations. Few cases actually assimilate both observations, and even fewer incorporate additional observations into the assimilation procedure. This is despite extensive developments in remote sensing information. Most research on data assimilation has focused on the implementation of sequential assimilation using Kalman filters. We present an alternative approach using variational methods based on Moving Horizon Estimation (MHE) to simultaneously assimilate streamflow data and remote sensing information obtained from the Satellite Application Facility on Support to Operational Hydrology and Water Management (H-SAF) community, namely snow-covered area, snow water equivalent and soil moisture. This approach enables a highly flexible formulation of distance metrics for the introduction of noise into the model and the agreement between simulated and observed variables. The application of MHE on data assimilation is tested at two data-dense test sites in Germany and one data-sparse environment in Turkey. The assessment of results is based on the lead time performance of state variables of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model, i.e. not limited to the performance of streamflow forecast but also applicable to snow and soil moisture forecast skills. Results show a potential improvement on the performance of the forecasted streamflow when using a perfect time series of state variables generated through the simulation of the conceptual rainfall-runoff model HBV. The assimilation of H-SAF data, in combination with streamflow, reduces the performance of the forecasted streamflow compared to the assimilation using only streamflow data. However, other forecasted quantities such as the snow water equivalent or soil moisture are improved. Recommendations based on the test cases are given following the length of the assimilation

  10. A large scale rainfall-runoff-inundation analysis of Thailand Flood 2011

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sayama, T.; Tatebe, Y.; Tanaka, S.

    2012-12-01

    A large amount of rainfall during the 2011 monsoonal season caused an unprecedented flood disaster in the Chao Phraya River basin in Thailand. When a large-scale flood occurs, it is very important to take appropriate emergency measures by holistically understanding the characteristics of the flooding based on available information and by predicting its possible development. This paper proposes quick response-type flood simulation that can be conducted during a severe flooding event. The hydrologic simulation model used in this study is designed to simulate river discharges and flood inundation simultaneously for an entire river basin with satellite based rainfall and topographic information. The model is based on two-dimensional diffusive wave equations for rainfall-runoff and inundation calculations. The model takes into account the effects of lateral subsurface flow and vertical infiltration flow since these two types of flow are also important processes. This paper presents prediction results obtained in mid-October 2011, when the flooding in Thailand was approaching to its peak. Our scientific question is how well we can predict the possible development of a large-scale flooding event with limited information and how much we can improve the prediction with more local information. In comparison with a satellite based flood inundation map, the study found that the quick response-type simulation (Case A) was capable of capturing the peak flood inundation extent reasonably. Our interpretation of the prediction was that the flooding might continue even until the end of November, which was positively confirmed to some extent by the actual flooding status in late November. In the meantime, the Case A simulation generally overestimated the peak water level. To address this overestimation, the input data was updated with additional local information (Case B). Consequently, the simulation accuracy improved in the lower basin by up to about 10 % for discharge and up to

  11. First flush characteristics of rainfall runoff from a paddy field in the Taihu Lake watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Li, Songmin; Wang, Xiaoling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Jiansheng; Tu, Jiamin

    2017-02-06

    Nonpoint storm runoff remains a major threat to surface water quality in China. As a paddy matures, numerous fertilizers are needed, especially in the rainy seasons; the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus in rainfall runoff from farmland is much higher than at other times, and this poses a great threat to water bodies and is the main reason for water eutrophication, especially in high concentration drainages. To date, most studies regarding the characteristics of pollutants in rainfall runoff have mainly been concentrated on urban runoff and watershed runoff; therefore, it is particularly important to investigate the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss in rainfall runoff from paddy fields. To study the characteristics of nitrogen and phosphorus loss and whether the first flush effect exists, continuous monitoring of the rainfall runoff process of six rainfall events was conducted in 2013, of which four rainfall events during storm, high, middle, and low intensity rainfalls were analyzed, and runoff and quality parameters, such as suspended solids (SS), total nitrogen (TN), ammonium nitrogen (NH4(+)-N), nitrate nitrogen (NO3(-)-N), total phosphorus (TP), and phosphate (PO4(3-)-P), were analyzed to determine the relationship between runoff and water quality. The paddy field is located north of Wuxi Lake Basin along the Hejia River upstream in Zhoutie town, Yixing city. An analysis of the load distribution during rainfall runoff was conducted. Event mean concentration (EMC) was used to evaluate the pollution situation of the paddy field's rainfall runoff. A curve of the dimensionless normalized cumulative load (L) vs. normalized cumulative flow (F) (L-F curve), the probability of the mass first flush (MFFn), and the pollutants carried by the initial 25% of runoff (FF25) were used to analyze the first flush effect of the paddy field runoff, and different contaminants show different results: the concentration of nitrogen and phosphorus fluctuate and

  12. Modelling rainfall-runoff processes in lowland catchments

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Brauer, C.C.

    2014-01-01

    De Wageningse Laagland Afvoer Simulator (WALRUS) wordt gepresenteerd. WALRUS houdt expliciet rekening met processen die belangrijk zijn in laaglandgebieden, in het bijzonder (1) de koppeling tussen grondwater en onverzadigde zone, (2) vochttoestandafhankelijke stroomroutes, (3) grondwater-oppervlakt

  13. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    the parameters, including the noise terms. The parameter estimation method is a maximum likelihood method (ML) where the likelihood function is evaluated using a Kalman filter technique. The ML method estimates the parameters in a prediction error settings, i.e. the sum of squared prediction error is minimized....... For a comparison the parameters are also estimated by an output error method, where the sum of squared simulation error is minimized. The former methodology is optimal for short-term prediction whereas the latter is optimal for simulations. Hence, depending on the purpose it is possible to select whether...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  14. Dynamics of monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin: A search for chaos

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sivakumar, B.; Berndtsson, R.; Olsson, J.; Jinno, K.; Kawamura, A.

    Sivakumar et al. (2000a), by employing the correlation dimension method, provided preliminary evidence of the existence of chaos in the monthly rainfall-runoff process at the Gota basin in Sweden. The present study verifies and supports the earlier results and strengthens such evidence. The study analyses the monthly rainfall, runoff and runoff coefficient series using the nonlinear prediction method, and the presence of chaos is investigated through an inverse approach, i.e. identifying chaos from the results of the prediction. The presence of an optimal embedding dimension (the embedding dimension with the best prediction accuracy) for each of the three series indicates the existence of chaos in the rainfall-runoff process, providing additional support to the results obtained using the correlation dimension method. The reasonably good predictions achieved, particularly for the runoff series, suggest that the dynamics of the rainfall-runoff process could be understood from a chaotic perspective. The predictions are also consistent with the correlation dimension results obtained in the earlier study, i.e. higher prediction accuracy for series with a lower dimension and vice-versa, so that the correlation dimension method can indeed be used as a preliminary indicator of chaos. However, the optimal embedding dimensions obtained from the prediction method are considerably less than the minimum dimensions essential to embed the attractor, as obtained by the correlation dimension method. A possible explanation for this could be the presence of noise in the series, since the effects of noise at higher embedding dimensions could be significantly greater than that at lower embedding dimensions.

  15. Improved methods to estimate the effective impervious area in urban catchments using rainfall-runoff data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ebrahimian, Ali; Wilson, Bruce N.; Gulliver, John S.

    2016-05-01

    Impervious surfaces are useful indicators of the urbanization impacts on water resources. Effective impervious area (EIA), which is the portion of total impervious area (TIA) that is hydraulically connected to the drainage system, is a better catchment parameter in the determination of actual urban runoff. Development of reliable methods for quantifying EIA rather than TIA is currently one of the knowledge gaps in the rainfall-runoff modeling context. The objective of this study is to improve the rainfall-runoff data analysis method for estimating EIA fraction in urban catchments by eliminating the subjective part of the existing method and by reducing the uncertainty of EIA estimates. First, the theoretical framework is generalized using a general linear least square model and using a general criterion for categorizing runoff events. Issues with the existing method that reduce the precision of the EIA fraction estimates are then identified and discussed. Two improved methods, based on ordinary least square (OLS) and weighted least square (WLS) estimates, are proposed to address these issues. The proposed weighted least squares method is then applied to eleven urban catchments in Europe, Canada, and Australia. The results are compared to map measured directly connected impervious area (DCIA) and are shown to be consistent with DCIA values. In addition, both of the improved methods are applied to nine urban catchments in Minnesota, USA. Both methods were successful in removing the subjective component inherent in the analysis of rainfall-runoff data of the current method. The WLS method is more robust than the OLS method and generates results that are different and more precise than the OLS method in the presence of heteroscedastic residuals in our rainfall-runoff data.

  16. Investigating and predicting landslides using a rainfall-runoff model in Southern Norway

    OpenAIRE

    Kråbøl, Eline Haga

    2016-01-01

    Landslides are amongst the most destructive natural hazards, causing damage to infrastructures, such as roads, railways and houses, and can, in a worst-case scenario, take lives. By studying the effect and response of rainfall using the temporal and spatial distribution of the storage and discharge, a better understanding of landslide processes and a more detailed prediction can be possible. This study employs a parameter-parsimonious rainfall-runoff model, the Distance Distribution model (DD...

  17. Towards a generic rainfall-runoff model for green roofs.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasmin, H; Stovin, V R; Hathway, E A

    2010-01-01

    A simple conceptual model for green roof hydrological processes is shown to reproduce monitored data, both during a storm event, and over a longer continuous simulation period. The model comprises a substrate moisture storage component and a transient storage component. Storage within the substrate represents the roof's overall stormwater retention capacity (or initial losses). Following a storm event the retention capacity is restored by evapotranspiration (ET). However, standard methods for quantifying ET do not exist. Monthly ET values are identified using four different approaches: analysis of storm event antecedent dry weather period and initial losses data; calibration of the ET parameter in a continuous simulation model; use of the Thornthwaite ET formula; and direct laboratory measurement of evaporation. There appears to be potential to adapt the Thornthwaite ET formula to provide monthly ET estimates from local temperature data. The development of a standardized laboratory test for ET will enable differences resulting from substrate characteristics to be quantified.

  18. Hybrid wavelet-support vector machine approach for modelling rainfall-runoff process.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Komasi, Mehdi; Sharghi, Soroush

    2016-01-01

    Because of the importance of water resources management, the need for accurate modeling of the rainfall-runoff process has rapidly grown in the past decades. Recently, the support vector machine (SVM) approach has been used by hydrologists for rainfall-runoff modeling and the other fields of hydrology. Similar to the other artificial intelligence models, such as artificial neural network (ANN) and adaptive neural fuzzy inference system, the SVM model is based on the autoregressive properties. In this paper, the wavelet analysis was linked to the SVM model concept for modeling the rainfall-runoff process of Aghchai and Eel River watersheds. In this way, the main time series of two variables, rainfall and runoff, were decomposed to multiple frequent time series by wavelet theory; then, these time series were imposed as input data on the SVM model in order to predict the runoff discharge one day ahead. The obtained results show that the wavelet SVM model can predict both short- and long-term runoff discharges by considering the seasonality effects. Also, the proposed hybrid model is relatively more appropriate than classical autoregressive ones such as ANN and SVM because it uses the multi-scale time series of rainfall and runoff data in the modeling process.

  19. Regionalization parameters of conceptual rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osuch, M.

    2003-04-01

    Main goal of this study was to develop techniques for the a priori estimation parameters of hydrological model. Conceptual hydrological model CLIRUN was applied to around 50 catchment in Poland. The size of catchments range from 1 000 to 100 000 km2. The model was calibrated for a number of gauged catchments with different catchment characteristics. The parameters of model were related to different climatic and physical catchment characteristics (topography, land use, vegetation and soil type). The relationships were tested by comparing observed and simulated runoff series from the gauged catchment that were not used in the calibration. The model performance using regional parameters was promising for most of the calibration and validation catchments.

  20. PERSiST: a flexible rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit for use with the INCA family of models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Futter, M. N.; Erlandsson, M. A.; Butterfield, D.; Whitehead, P. G.; Oni, S. K.; Wade, A. J.

    2014-02-01

    Runoff generation processes and pathways vary widely between catchments. Credible simulations of solute and pollutant transport in surface waters are dependent on models which facilitate appropriate, catchment-specific representations of perceptual models of the runoff generation process. Here, we present a flexible, semi-distributed landscape-scale rainfall-runoff modelling toolkit suitable for simulating a broad range of user-specified perceptual models of runoff generation and stream flow occurring in different climatic regions and landscape types. PERSiST (the Precipitation, Evapotranspiration and Runoff Simulator for Solute Transport) is designed for simulating present-day hydrology; projecting possible future effects of climate or land use change on runoff and catchment water storage; and generating hydrologic inputs for the Integrated Catchments (INCA) family of models. PERSiST has limited data requirements and is calibrated using observed time series of precipitation, air temperature and runoff at one or more points in a river network. Here, we apply PERSiST to the river Thames in the UK and describe a Monte Carlo tool for model calibration, sensitivity and uncertainty analysis.

  1. Integration and calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model in the framework of a decision support system for river basin management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Götzinger

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Water balance models provide significant input to integrated models that are used to simulate river basin processes. However, one of the primary problems involves the coupling and simultaneous calibration of rainfall-runoff and groundwater models. This problem manifests itself through circular arguments - the hydrologic model is modified to calculate highly discretized groundwater recharge rates as input to the groundwater model which provides modeled base flow for the flood-routing module of the rainfall-runoff model. A possibility to overcome this problem using a modified version of the HBV Model is presented in this paper. Regionalisation and optimization methods lead to objective and efficient calibration despite large numbers of parameters. The representation of model parameters by transfer functions of catchment characteristics enables consistent parameter estimation. By establishing such relationships, models are calibrated for the parameters of the transfer functions instead of the model parameters themselves. Simulated annealing, using weighted Nash-Sutcliffe-coefficients of variable temporal aggregation, assists in efficient parameterisations. The simulations are compared to observed discharge and groundwater recharge modeled by the State Institute for Environmental Protection Baden-Württemberg using the model TRAIN-GWN.

  2. Statistical determination of rainfall-runoff erosivity indices for single storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan

    2015-01-01

    Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I20, EI10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I10), EI20 and EI30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations.

  3. Variation of IUH shapes with size of rainfall-runoff events in a small agricultural catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Banasik, Kazimierz; Hejduk, Leszek; Banasik, Jerzy

    2013-04-01

    Instantaneous unit hydrograph (IUH) is one of the key components in many procedures for design flood estimation. The IUH defined by gamma pdf, called also Nash model, has been estimated for each of the over 30 recorded rainfall-runoff events, in a small (A=82.4 km2), lowland, agricultural catchment located in central Poland, in the period 1980-2010 (Banasik et al., 2011). Variability of the IUH characteristics (such as lag time, time to peak, maximum ordinate) vs. rainfall-runoff parameters (such as peak discharge and runoff depth) will be presented. A larger variability of the IUH characteristics for smaller events was noted. Two methods for estimating, empirically based, representative IUH, for the catchment and for the design flood estimation, are presented. The first one is based on mean values of time to peak and peak ordinate of all individual IUHs, and the other one is taking into account only the largest events when the lag time has tendency to decrease with runoff depth increasing. The empirically estimated representative IUHs are compared with unit hydrograph of FSSR and ReFH (Kjeldsen 2007). Results of single event model application, with the IUH incorporated in it, are compared with results of FFA for this catchment. Banasik K., Hejduk L. and Oygarden L., 2011. Prediction and reduction of diffuse pollution, solid emission and extreme flows from rural areas - case study of small agricultural catchments. Warsaw University of Life Sciences Press, Warsaw. Kjeldsen T.R., 2007. Flood Estimation Handbook, Supplementary Report No. 1. The revitalized FSR/FEH rainfall-runoff method. Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Wallingford, UK. ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The investigation described in the paper is part of the research project KORANET founded by PL-National Center for Research and Development.

  4. Predicting hydrological signatures in ungauged catchments using spatial interpolation, index model, and rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yongqiang; Vaze, Jai; Chiew, Francis H. S.; Teng, Jin; Li, Ming

    2014-09-01

    Understanding a catchment's behaviours in terms of its underlying hydrological signatures is a fundamental task in surface water hydrology. It can help in water resource management, catchment classification, and prediction of runoff time series. This study investigated three approaches for predicting six hydrological signatures in southeastern Australia. These approaches were (1) spatial interpolation with three weighting schemes, (2) index model that estimates hydrological signatures using catchment characteristics, and (3) classical rainfall-runoff modelling. The six hydrological signatures fell into two categories: (1) long-term aggregated signatures - annual runoff coefficient, mean of log-transformed daily runoff, and zero flow ratio, and (2) signatures obtained from daily flow metrics - concavity index, seasonality ratio of runoff, and standard deviation of log-transformed daily flow. A total of 228 unregulated catchments were selected, with half the catchments randomly selected as gauged (or donors) for model building and the rest considered as ungauged (or receivers) to evaluate performance of the three approaches. The results showed that for two long-term aggregated signatures - the log-transformed daily runoff and runoff coefficient, the index model and rainfall-runoff modelling performed similarly, and were better than the spatial interpolation methods. For the zero flow ratio, the index model was best and the rainfall-runoff modelling performed worst. The other three signatures, derived from daily flow metrics and considered to be salient flow characteristics, were best predicted by the spatial interpolation methods of inverse distance weighting (IDW) and kriging. Comparison of flow duration curves predicted by the three approaches showed that the IDW method was best. The results found here provide guidelines for choosing the most appropriate approach for predicting hydrological behaviours at large scales.

  5. Export Mechanisms of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTSs) in Urban Land Uses during Rainfall-Runoff Events: Experimental and Modeling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Luo, X.; Lin, Z.

    2016-12-01

    The urban environment has a variety of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTS), such as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and mercury. Soil in pervious lands and dust deposited on impervious surfaces are two major sinks of PTSs in urbanized areas, which could contribute significant nonpoint source loadings of PTSs to adjacent waterbodies during rainfall-runoff events and therefore jeopardize aquatic ecosystems. However, PTSs have been much less understood regarding their export mechanisms in urban land uses, and efforts to model nonpoint source pollution processes of PTSs have been rare. We designed and performed in-lab rainfall-runoff simulation experiments to investigate transport of PAHs and mercury by runoff from urban soils. Organic petrology analysis (OPA) techniques were introduced to analyze the soil and sediment compositions. Our study revealed the limitation of the classic enrichment theory which attributes enrichment of pollutants in eroded sediment solely to the sediment's particle size distribution and adopts simple relationships between enrichment ratio and sediment flux. We found that carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil are the direct and major sorbents for PAHs and mercury, and highly different in content, mobility and adsorption capacity for the PTSs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon components largely control the transport of soil PAHs, while humic substances have a dominant influence on the transport of soil mercury. A model was further developed to estimate the enrichment ratio of PAHs, which innovatively applies the fugacity concept.We also conducted field studies on export of PAHs by runoff from urban roads. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of PAH buildup and washoff on urban roads. The dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case

  6. Flood modelling with a distributed event-based parsimonious rainfall-runoff model: case of the karstic Lez river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coustau

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for the statistical prediction of flash floods and real-time forecasting. This paper focuses on a karstic basin in the South of France and proposes a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model, coherent with the poor knowledge of both evaporative and underground fluxes. The model combines a SCS runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The efficiency of the model is discussed not only to satisfactorily simulate floods but also to get powerful relationships between the initial condition of the model and various predictors of the initial wetness state of the basin, such as the base flow, the Hu2 index from the Meteo-France SIM model and the piezometric levels of the aquifer. The advantage of using meteorological radar rainfall in flood modelling is also assessed. Model calibration proved to be satisfactory by using an hourly time step with Nash criterion values, ranging between 0.66 and 0.94 for eighteen of the twenty-one selected events. The radar rainfall inputs significantly improved the simulations or the assessment of the initial condition of the model for 5 events at the beginning of autumn, mostly in September–October (mean improvement of Nash is 0.09; correction in the initial condition ranges from −205 to 124 mm, but were less efficient for the events at the end of autumn. In this period, the weak vertical extension of the precipitation system and the low altitude of the 0 °C isotherm could affect the efficiency of radar measurements due to the distance between the basin and the radar (~60 km. The model initial condition S is correlated with the three tested predictors (R2 > 0.6. The interpretation of the model suggests that groundwater does not affect the first peaks of the flood, but can strongly impact subsequent peaks in the case of a multi-storm event. Because this kind of model is based on a limited

  7. Indoor imitation experimental study on driving factors of rainfall-runoff process

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHANG Shifeng; LIU Changming; XIA Jun; TAN Ge; LI Lin; LIU Caitang; ZHOU Changqing; GUO Lei

    2005-01-01

    The driving actions of rainfall-runoff process can be attributed to two aspects. The first is the influence of precipitation process, and the second is that of the ground pad. The research results of 179 indoor experiments conducted to imitate rainfall-runoff process indicate that both precipitation duration and intensity play important roles in affecting confluence lag time,which is obviously inconsistent with the traditional hypotheses. The nonlinear relationship is of great significance to the confluence curve especially when the precipitation duration is less than the total confluence time or the precipitation intensity is small. Therefore it can be concluded that the unit hydrograph (UH) can be applied to rainfall-runoff process imitation in the humid areas in the south China region. However, the UH application should be strictly modified in accordance with precipitation conditions in the arid and semiarid region of north China where the precipitation duration is short and the intensity is unstable. It will be hard to get ideal imitation results if the UH is applied blindly without considering specific conditions in the north China region. This also explains the unsatisfactory imitation results caused by using various hydrological models in the north China region. When the precipitation duration is short, and the watershed has not reached total watershed concentration, the characteristics of confluence change greatly, which reflects the actual situation in the north China region. Therefore necessary nonlinear corrections should be made when UH is applied. If the duration is longer than the total confluence time and the balance between pondage and discharge is stricken, the imitation research results will be applicable to both rainfall-runoff relation with longer duration in the south China region and the basic theoretical research on runoff generation and concentration. On conditions of adequate rainfall, peak discharge is in linear relationship with intensity

  8. Estimation of rainfall-runoff using curve number: a GIS based development of Sathanur reservoir catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vijay, Ritesh; Pareek, Ashutosh; Gupta, Apurba

    2006-10-01

    A GIS based algorithm has been developed to estimate the rainfall-runoff relationship of Sathanur reservoir catchment based on Soil Conservation Service (SCS) model. The landuse and soil maps were prepared in Arc/Info 9.0 and an arc macro language (AML) programme was developed to assign curve number based on landuse and soil classification including hydrological condition of the area. The algorithm was executed successfully by rainfall data for computation of runoff depth in all the sub watersheds. The study is important for a watershed, which does not have runoff records and can be used for planning of various water conservation measures.

  9. Experimental study on the nonlinear multiparameter rainfall-runoff threshold model.%多参数非线性降雨产流阈值模型试验研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    黄俊; 吴普特; 赵西宁

    2011-01-01

    降雨产流阈值是受雨下垫面能够产流的最小降雨量值,是产流产沙规律研究的重要参数.采用室外人工模拟降雨试验,用传统直线回归法推求了4种下垫面条件下坡面降雨产流阈值,并综合考虑了其他因素对降雨产流阈值的影响,建立了一种多参数非线性降雨产流阈值模型.结果表明:传统直线回归法得到的4种不同调控措施下坡面的降雨产流阈值分别为:裸坡9.4 mm、黑麦草23.6 mm、苜蓿15.8 mm和春小麦19.5 mm.结合直线回归法并充分考虑降雨强度、植被覆盖度和前期土壤含水量3个因素对降雨产流阈值的影响,通过多元回归分析建立了一种多参数非线性降雨产流阈值模型,由该模型得到的4种不同调控措施下坡面的降雨产流阈值分别为:裸坡13.4 mm、黑麦草23.7 mm、苜蓿18.8 mm和春小麦19.7 mm.用实测数据对模型进行检验,计算值与实测值吻合程度较高,证实了该多参数非线性模型的适合性与可行性.%Rainfall-runoff threshold is the minimum rainfall producing surface runoff and it is an important parameter for the research of runoff and sediment yield law. In this paper, the field artificial rainfall simulation experiments were carried out, and the rainfall threshold for different vegetation covers was obtained using the traditional regression method. Moreover, a nonlinear multi-parameter rainfall-runoff threshold model was established to analyze the effects of other factors on rainfall-runoff threshold. The results indicated that the rainfall-runoff thresholds of four different control measurements (bare slope,ryegrass slope, purple medic slope, and spring wheat slope ) determined by the traditional linear regression method were 9.4, 23.6, 15.8 and 19.5mm, respectively. Considering the effects of rainfall intensity, vegetation coverage and antecedent soil water content on the rainfall-runoff threshold, a nonlinear multi-parameter rainfall-runoff threshold

  10. How should a rainfall-runoff model be parameterized in an almost ungauged catchment? A methodology tested on 609 catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rojas-Serna, Claudia; Lebecherel, Laure; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken; Oudin, Ludovic

    2016-06-01

    This paper examines catchments that are almost ungauged, i.e., catchments for which only a small number of point flow measurements are available. In these catchments, hydrologists may still need to simulate continuous streamflow time series using a rainfall-runoff model, and the methodology presented here allows using few point measurements for model parameterization. The method combines regional information (parameter sets of neighboring gauged stations) and local information (contributed by the point measurements) within a framework where the relative weight of each source of information is made dependent on the number of point measurements available. This approach is tested with two different hydrological models on a set of 609 catchments in France. The results show that on average a few flow measurements can significantly improve the simulation efficiency, and that 10 measurements can reduce the performance gap between the gauged and ungauged situations by more than 50%. The added value of regional information progressively decreases until being almost insignificant when sufficient flow measurements are available. Model parameters tend to come closer to the values obtained by calibration in fully gauged conditions as the number of point flow measurements increases.

  11. Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

    2015-04-01

    A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

  12. Estimation of reservoir inflow in data scarce region by using Sacramento rainfall runoff model - A case study for Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myo Lin, Nay; Rutten, Martine

    2017-04-01

    The Sittaung River is one of four major rivers in Myanmar. This river basin is developing fast and facing problems with flood, sedimentation, river bank erosion and salt intrusion. At present, more than 20 numbers of reservoirs have already been constructed for multiple purposes such as irrigation, domestic water supply, hydro-power generation, and flood control. The rainfall runoff models are required for the operational management of this reservoir system. In this study, the river basin is divided into (64) sub-catchments and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models are developed by using satellite rainfall and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. The SAC-SMA model has sixteen calibration parameters, and also uses a unit hydrograph for surface flow routing. The Sobek software package is used for SAC-SMA modelling and simulation of river system. The models are calibrated and tested by using observed discharge and water level data. The statistical results show that the model is applicable to use for data scarce region. Keywords: Sacramento, Sobek, rainfall runoff, reservoir

  13. A geomorphology-based ANFIS model for multi-station modeling of rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid; Komasi, Mehdi

    2013-05-01

    This paper demonstrates the potential use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques for predicting daily runoff at multiple gauging stations. Uncertainty and complexity of the rainfall-runoff process due to its variability in space and time in one hand and lack of historical data on the other hand, cause difficulties in the spatiotemporal modeling of the process. In this paper, an Integrated Geomorphological Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (IGANFIS) model conjugated with C-means clustering algorithm was used for rainfall-runoff modeling at multiple stations of the Eel River watershed, California. The proposed model could be used for predicting runoff in the stations with lack of data or any sub-basin within the watershed because of employing the spatial and temporal variables of the sub-basins as the model inputs. This ability of the integrated model for spatiotemporal modeling of the process was examined through the cross validation technique for a station. In this way, different ANFIS structures were trained using Sugeno algorithm in order to estimate daily discharge values at different stations. In order to improve the model efficiency, the input data were then classified into some clusters by the means of fuzzy C-means (FCMs) method. The goodness-of-fit measures support the gainful use of the IGANFIS and FCM methods in spatiotemporal modeling of hydrological processes.

  14. Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Saeidifarzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.

  15. Treatment of precipitation uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling: a fuzzy set approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Maskey, Shreedhar; Guinot, Vincent; Price, Roland K.

    2004-09-01

    The uncertainty in forecasted precipitation remains a major source of uncertainty in real time flood forecasting. Precipitation uncertainty consists of uncertainty in (i) the magnitude, (ii) temporal distribution, and (iii) spatial distribution of the precipitation. This paper presents a methodology for propagating the precipitation uncertainty through a deterministic rainfall-runoff-routing model for flood forecasting. It uses fuzzy set theory combined with genetic algorithms. The uncertainty due to the unknown temporal distribution of the precipitation is achieved by disaggregation of the precipitation into subperiods. The methodology based on fuzzy set theory is particularly useful where a probabilistic forecast of precipitation is not available. A catchment model of the Klodzko valley (Poland) built with HEC-1 and HEC-HMS was used for the application. The results showed that the output uncertainty due to the uncertain temporal distribution of precipitation can be significantly dominant over the uncertainty due to the uncertain quantity of precipitation.

  16. Top-down methodology for rainfall-runoff modelling and evaluation of hydrological extremes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Willems, Patrick

    2014-05-01

    A top-down methodology is presented for implementation and calibration of a lumped conceptual catchment rainfall-runoff model that aims to produce high model performance (depending on the quality and availability of data) in terms of rainfall-runoff discharges for the full range from low to high discharges, including the peak and low flow extremes. The model is to be used to support water engineering applications, which most often deal with high and low flows as well as cumulative runoff volumes. With this application in mind, the paper wants to contribute to the above-mentioned problems and advancements on model evaluation, model-structure selection, the overparameterization problem and the long time the modeller needs to invest or the difficulties one encounters when building and calibrating a lumped conceptual model for a river catchment. The methodology is an empirical and step-wise technique that includes examination of the various model components step by step through a data-based analysis of response characteristics. The approach starts from a generalized lumped conceptual model structure. In this structure, only the general components of a lumped conceptual model, such as the existence of storage and routing elements, and their inter-links, are pre-defined. The detailed specifications on model equations and parameters are supported by advanced time series analysis of the empirical response between the rainfall and evapotranspiration inputs and the river flow output. Subresponses are separated and submodel components and related subsets of parameters are calibrated as independently as possible. At the same time, the model-structure identification process aims to reach parsimonious submodel-structures, and accounts for the serial dependency of runoff values, which typically is higher for low flows than for high flows. It also accounts for the heteroscedasticity and dependency of model residuals when evaluating the model performance. It is shown that this step

  17. Flood predictions using the parallel version of distributed numerical physical rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI

    Science.gov (United States)

    Boyko, Oleksiy; Zheleznyak, Mark

    2015-04-01

    The original numerical code TOPKAPI-IMMS of the distributed rainfall-runoff model TOPKAPI ( Todini et al, 1996-2014) is developed and implemented in Ukraine. The parallel version of the code has been developed recently to be used on multiprocessors systems - multicore/processors PC and clusters. Algorithm is based on binary-tree decomposition of the watershed for the balancing of the amount of computation for all processors/cores. Message passing interface (MPI) protocol is used as a parallel computing framework. The numerical efficiency of the parallelization algorithms is demonstrated for the case studies for the flood predictions of the mountain watersheds of the Ukrainian Carpathian regions. The modeling results is compared with the predictions based on the lumped parameters models.

  18. Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMC) from rainfall runoff on an urban highway.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Ju Young; Kim, Hyoungjun; Kim, Youngjin; Han, Moo Young

    2011-04-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the characterization of the event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff during heavy precipitation events on highways. Highway runoff quality data were collected from the 7th highway, in South Korea during 2007-2009. The samples were analyzed for runoff quantity and quality parameters such as COD(cr), TSS, TPHs, TKN, NO₃, TP, PO₄ and six heavy metals, e.g., As, Cu, Cd, Ni, Pb and Zn. Analysis of resulting hydrographs and pollutant graphs indicates that the peak of the pollutant concentrations in runoff occurs 20 min after the first rainfall runoff occurrence. The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and the rainfall intensity. The results of this study can be used as a reference for water quality management of urban highways.

  19. [Experimental study on rainfall-runoff pollutant reduction by urban green space].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jiang; Yang, Kai; Lü, Yong-Peng; Li, Bo; Lü, Shu-Hua

    2009-11-01

    Based on the state that non-pointed pollution caused by urban rainfall-runoff was one of the major factors which led to urban surface water contaminated and ecology deteriorated, a soil aquifer treatment system was built to experimentally study the pollution reduction effectiveness of green space, and the impacts of land cover, influent concentration, soil depth, hydraulic loading rate and residence time were analyzed. The results exhibit that green space has a better and stabilized ability to reduce three representative urban rainfall-runoff pollution concentrations, which COD are 44.5, 144.3, 487.2 mg x L(-1), NH4(+) -N are 4.27, 11.44, 36.61 mg x L(-1) and TP are 0.98, 2.85, 9.66 mg x L(-1), respectively, and with 8.15, 7.13 and 6.12 cm x h(-1) hydraulic loading rate, respectively. The pollution reduction rates of COD, NH4(+) -N and TP by green space are 33.41%-37.14%, 58.74%-61.49% and 63.65%-67.08%, respectively. The effect of land cover to pollution reduction rate is not significant because of the limitation of oxygen and hydraulic residence time. When pollution concentration increases, the comprehensive pollution reduction ability of green space is kept in 50%-60%, with a little increased tendency. Pollution reduction process happens mainly in the upper layer of the green space soil with a depth of 50-70 cm.

  20. Rainfall-runoff temporal variability in Kermanshah province, Iran and distinguishing anthropogenic effects from climatic effects

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ghafarian, P.; Gholami, S.; Owlad, E.; Gerivani, H.

    2016-08-01

    Investigation of changes in rainfall and runoff patterns in various regions and determining their relationship in the sense of hydrology and climatology are of great importance, considering those patterns efficiently reveal the human and natural factors in this variability. One of the mathematical methods to recognise and model these fluctuations is Wavelet Analysis. This is a spectral method used in multivariate analysis and also tracing fluctuations in temporal series. In this study, continuous wavelet transformation is used to identify temporal changes in rainfall-runoff patterns. The hydrological and rain gauge data were collected from in situ measurements of Kermanshah province located in the western border of Iran. Precipitation anomalies were reconsidered in a number of stations, including Kermanshah, for a period of 55 years (1955-2010) and discharge of Gamasiab River in Polchehr station, discharge of Khoram Rood River in Aran-Gharb station and discharge of Gharasoo River in Polekohne station. In addition, anomalies of the climatic teleconnections were studied to emphasise the climatological effects on the runoff pattern in the region. The role of natural and anthropogenic effects (land use changes) has been distinguished and identified, using the comparison of the teleconnections and hydrological data. The results achieved from three stations show that there was an approximate correlation between rainfall, runoff and teleconnections until the year 1995; however, after 1995, a great difference appeared among them, specifically for the Aran-Gharb station (Khoram Rood River). The post-1995 slope of cumulative standardised anomaly is much steeper in the case of runoff compared to rainfall. As there were no significant climate changes in the region, it could be concluded that the runoff decrease is not caused by climate changes, but by anthropogenic effects, human interventions and extra water usage from the surface and underground water resources for

  1. Beyond the SCS-CN method: A theoretical framework for spatially lumped rainfall-runoff response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.

    2016-06-01

    Since its introduction in 1954, the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method has become the standard tool, in practice, for estimating an event-based rainfall-runoff response. However, because of its empirical origins, the SCS-CN method is restricted to certain geographic regions and land use types. Moreover, it does not describe the spatial variability of runoff. To move beyond these limitations, we present a new theoretical framework for spatially lumped, event-based rainfall-runoff modeling. In this framework, we describe the spatially lumped runoff model as a point description of runoff that is upscaled to a watershed area based on probability distributions that are representative of watershed heterogeneities. The framework accommodates different runoff concepts and distributions of heterogeneities, and in doing so, it provides an implicit spatial description of runoff variability. Heterogeneity in storage capacity and soil moisture are the basis for upscaling a point runoff response and linking ecohydrological processes to runoff modeling. For the framework, we consider two different runoff responses for fractions of the watershed area: "prethreshold" and "threshold-excess" runoff. These occur before and after infiltration exceeds a storage capacity threshold. Our application of the framework results in a new model (called SCS-CNx) that extends the SCS-CN method with the prethreshold and threshold-excess runoff mechanisms and an implicit spatial description of runoff. We show proof of concept in four forested watersheds and further that the resulting model may better represent geographic regions and site types that previously have been beyond the scope of the traditional SCS-CN method.

  2. Rainfall-runoff model for prediction of waterborne viral contamination in a small river catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelati, E.; Dommar, C.; Lowe, R.; Polcher, J.; Rodó, X.

    2013-12-01

    We present a lumped rainfall-runoff model aimed at providing useful information for the prediction of waterborne viral contamination in small rivers. Viral contamination of water bodies may occur because of the discharge of sewage effluents and of surface runoff over areas affected by animal waste loads. Surface runoff is caused by precipitation that cannot infiltrate due to its intensity and to antecedent soil water content. It may transport animal feces to adjacent water bodies and cause viral contamination. We model streamflow by separating it into two components: subsurface flow, which is produced by infiltrated precipitation; and surface runoff. The model estimates infiltrated and non-infiltrated precipitation and uses impulse-response functions to compute the corresponding fractions of streamflow. The developed methodologies are applied to the Glafkos river, whose catchment extends for 102 km2 and includes the city of Patra. Streamflow and precipitation observations are available at a daily time resolution. Waterborne virus concentration measurements were performed approximately every second week from the beginning of 2011 to mid 2012. Samples were taken at several locations: in river water upstream of Patras and in the urban area; in sea water at the river outlet and approximately 2 km south-west of Patras; in sewage effluents before and after treatment. The rainfall-runoff model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow and precipitation data. The model contribution to waterborne viral contamination prediction was benchmarked by analyzing the virus concentration measurements together with the estimated surface runoff values. The presented methodology may be a first step towards the development of waterborne viral contamination alert systems. Predicting viral contamination of water bodies would benefit sectors such as water supply and tourism.

  3. Benefits and limitations of data assimilation for discharge forecasting using an event-based rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coustau, M.; Ricci, S.; Borrell-Estupina, V.; Bouvier, C.; Thual, O.

    2013-03-01

    Mediterranean catchments in southern France are threatened by potentially devastating fast floods which are difficult to anticipate. In order to improve the skill of rainfall-runoff models in predicting such flash floods, hydrologists use data assimilation techniques to provide real-time updates of the model using observational data. This approach seeks to reduce the uncertainties present in different components of the hydrological model (forcing, parameters or state variables) in order to minimize the error in simulated discharges. This article presents a data assimilation procedure, the best linear unbiased estimator (BLUE), used with the goal of improving the peak discharge predictions generated by an event-based hydrological model Soil Conservation Service lag and route (SCS-LR). For a given prediction date, selected model inputs are corrected by assimilating discharge data observed at the basin outlet. This study is conducted on the Lez Mediterranean basin in southern France. The key objectives of this article are (i) to select the parameter(s) which allow for the most efficient and reliable correction of the simulated discharges, (ii) to demonstrate the impact of the correction of the initial condition upon simulated discharges, and (iii) to identify and understand conditions in which this technique fails to improve the forecast skill. The correction of the initial moisture deficit of the soil reservoir proves to be the most efficient control parameter for adjusting the peak discharge. Using data assimilation, this correction leads to an average of 12% improvement in the flood peak magnitude forecast in 75% of cases. The investigation of the other 25% of cases points out a number of precautions for the appropriate use of this data assimilation procedure.

  4. The impacts of assimilating satellite soil moisture into a rainfall-runoff model in a semi-arid catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soil moisture plays a key role in runoff generation processes. As a result, the assimilation of soil moisture observations into rainfall-runoff models is increasingly being investigated. Given the scarcity of ground-based in situ measurements, satellite soil moisture observations offer a valuable da...

  5. Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land-use, or land-use management?

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Fenicia, F.; Savenije, H.H.G.; Avdeeva, Y.

    2009-01-01

    OA-Fund TU Delft The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible

  6. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Dynamics in Tropical, Urban Socio-Hydrological Systems: Green Infrastructure and Variable Precipitation Interception

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nytch, C. J.; Meléndez-Ackerman, E. J.

    2014-12-01

    There is a pressing need to generate spatially-explicit models of rainfall-runoff dynamics in the urban humid tropics that can characterize flow pathways and flood magnitudes in response to erratic precipitation events. To effectively simulate stormwater runoff processes at multiple scales, complex spatio-temporal parameters such as rainfall, evapotranspiration, and antecedent soil moisture conditions must be accurately represented, in addition to uniquely urban factors including stormwater conveyance structures and connectivity between green and gray infrastructure elements. In heavily urbanized San Juan, Puerto Rico, stream flashiness and frequent flooding are major issues, yet still lacking is a hydrological analysis that models the generation and movement of fluvial and pluvial stormwater through the watershed. Our research employs a novel and multifaceted approach to dealing with this problem that integrates 1) field-based rainfall interception and infiltration methodologies to quantify the hydrologic functions of natural and built infrastructure in San Juan; 2) remote sensing analysis to produce a fine-scale typology of green and gray cover types in the city and determine patterns of spatial distribution and connectivity; 3) assessment of precipitation and streamflow variability at local and basin-wide scales using satellite and radar precipitation estimates in concert with rainfall and stream gauge point data and participatory flood mapping; 4) simulation of historical, present-day, and future stormwater runoff scenarios with a fully distributed hydrologic model that couples diverse components of urban socio-hydrological systems from formal and informal knowledge sources; and 5) bias and uncertainty analysis of parameters and model structure within a Bayesian hierarchical framework. Preliminary results from the rainfall interception study suggest that canopy structure and leaf area index of different tree species contribute to variable throughfall and

  7. Using High Resolution Tracer Data to Constrain Storage and Flux Estimates in a Spatially Distributed Rainfall-runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Van Huijgevoort, M.; Tetzlaff, D.; Sutanudjaja, E.; Soulsby, C.

    2015-12-01

    Models simulating both stream flow and conservative tracers can provide a more realistic representation of flow paths, storage distributions and mixing processes that is advantageous for many predictions. Conceptual models with such integration have provided useful insights, but tend to be lumped and thus crude representations of catchment processes. Using tracers to aid spatially-distributed models has considerable potential to improve the conceptualisation of the dynamics of internal hydrological stores and fluxes. Here, we examine the strengths and weaknesses of a data-driven, spatially-distributed tracer-aided rainfall-runoff model. The model structure allows the assessment of the effect of landscape properties on the routing and mixing of water and tracers. The model was applied to an experimental site (3.2 km2) in the Scottish Highlands with a unique tracer data set; 4 years of daily isotope ratios in stream water and precipitation were available, as well as 2 years of weekly soil and ground water isotopes. The model evolved from an empirically-based, lumped tracer-aided model previously developed for the catchment. The best model runs were selected from Monte Carlo simulations based on a dual calibration criterion that included objective functions for both stream water isotopes and discharge at the outlet. Model results were also tested against observed spatially-distributed soil water isotope data. Model performance for both criteria was good and the model could reproduce the variable isotope signals in steeper hillslopes where storage was low and damped isotope responses in valley bottom cells with high storage. The model also allows us to estimate the age distributions of internal water fluxes and stream flow and has substantially improved spatial and temporal dynamics of process representation. This gives a more robust framework for projecting the effects of environmental change.

  8. Physically-Based One-Dimensional Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model Using the Finite Volume Method and Grid Network Flow Analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yun Seok Choi

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available This work develops a grid based rainfall-runoff model (GRM, which is a physically based and spatially distributed model. Surface flow was analyzed using a kinematic wave model with the governing equations discretized using the finite volume method (FVM. This paper suggests a grid network flow analysis technique using variable rainfall intensity according to the flow directions to analyze one-dimensional flows between the grids. The model was evaluated by applying it to the Wuicheon watershed, a tributary of the Nakdonggang (Riv., in Korea. The results showed that the grid-based, one-dimensional kinematic wave model adopted the FVM and the grid network flow analysis technique well. The simulation results showed good agreement with the observed hydrographs and the initial soil saturation ratio was most sensitive to the modeling results.

  9. Comparison of different multi-objective calibration criteria of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model of flood events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Chahinian

    2007-05-01

    Full Text Available A conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff flood event model was developed and applied on the Gardon catchment located in southern France and various mono-objective and multi-objective functions were used for its calibration. The model was calibrated on 15 events and validated on 14 others. The results of both the calibration and validation phases are compared on the basis of their performance with regards to six criteria, three global criteria and three relative criteria representing volume, peakflow, and the root mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to strong events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent on the type of criteria used. Significant trade-offs are observed between the different objectives: no unique set of parameter is able to satisfy all objectives simultaneously. Instead, the solution to the calibration problem is given by a set of Pareto optimal solutions. From this set of optimal solutions, a balanced aggregated objective function is proposed, as a compromise between up to three objective functions. The mono-objective and multi-objective calibration strategies are compared both in terms of parameter variation bounds and simulation quality. The results of this study indicate that two well chosen and non-redundant objective functions are sufficient to calibrate the model and that the use of three objective functions does not necessarily yield different results. The problems of non-uniqueness in model calibration, and the choice of the adequate objective functions for flood event models, emphasise the importance of the modeller's intervention. The recent advances in automatic optimisation techniques do not minimise the user's responsibility, who has to chose multiple criteria based on the aims of the study, his appreciation on the errors induced by data and model structure and his knowledge of the catchment

  10. Comparison of different multi-objective calibration criteria using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model of flood events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Moussa

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available A conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff flood event model was developed and applied on the Gardon catchment located in Southern France and various single-objective and multi-objective functions were used for its calibration. The model was calibrated on 15 events and validated on 14 others. The results of both the calibration and validation phases are compared on the basis of their performance with regards to six criteria, three global criteria and three relative criteria representing volume, peakflow, and the root mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to large events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent on the type of criteria used. Significant trade-offs are observed between the different objectives: no unique set of parameters is able to satisfy all objectives simultaneously. Instead, the solution to the calibration problem is given by a set of Pareto optimal solutions. From this set of optimal solutions, a balanced aggregated objective function is proposed, as a compromise between up to three objective functions. The single-objective and multi-objective calibration strategies are compared both in terms of parameter variation bounds and simulation quality. The results of this study indicate that two well chosen and non-redundant objective functions are sufficient to calibrate the model and that the use of three objective functions does not necessarily yield different results. The problems of non-uniqueness in model calibration, and the choice of the adequate objective functions for flood event models, emphasise the importance of the modeller's intervention. The recent advances in automatic optimisation techniques do not minimise the user's responsibility, who has to choose multiple criteria based on the aims of the study, his appreciation on the errors induced by data and model structure and his knowledge of the

  11. Rainfall-runoff Model of Coupling Underground Water in Plain Area%耦合地下潜水的平原区降雨产流模型

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    朱立国; 王船海; 杨凤; 胡星; 王娟

    2012-01-01

    Hydrological cycle processes in plain area, such as rainfall, evapotranspiration, runoff, phreatic water level fluctuations are closely linked with each other. And the research of the transformation law has important significance. Based on the original rainfall-runoff model, the exchange capacity between surface water and groundwater is calculated for four types of underlying surface: water surface, paddy fields, dry land surface and urban construction land and calculate by considering the impact of the infiltration, underground water evaporation and micro-topography. The exchange capacity is taken as the source-sink term of plain region to establish phreatic water model. Taking plain region in Taihu basin for test region, the rationality of plains rainfall-runoff model is verified by simulating water level of phreatic water.%平原区降雨、蒸散发、产流和潜水位起伏等水文循环过程之间的联系十分密切,研究其相互间转化规律具有十分重要的意义.基于已有的平原区降雨产流模型,通过考虑产流下渗、地下潜水蒸发及微地形的影响,分别计算了水面、水田、旱地和城镇建设用地四种下垫面的地表水和潜水的交换量,将交换量作为平原区潜水的源汇项构建了潜水模型,并以太湖流域平原区作为试验区,通过模拟潜水位验证了平原区降雨产流模型的合理性.

  12. Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMC) from rainfall runoff on an urban highway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lee, Ju Young, E-mail: juyounglee@snu.ac.kr [Natural Products Center, KIST(Korea Institute of Science and Technology)-Gangneung Institute, Gangnueng 210-340 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Hyoungjun, E-mail: kimhj9415@hanmail.net [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, 599 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of); Kim, Youngjin, E-mail: mukta73@korea.kr [Department of Agricultural Engineering, National Institute of Agricultural Science, Gwonseon-Gu, Suwon 442-701 (Korea, Republic of); Han, Moo Young, E-mail: myhan@snu.ac.kr [Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Seoul National University, 599 Gwanak-ro, Gwanak-gu, Seoul 151-744 (Korea, Republic of)

    2011-04-15

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the characterization of the event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff during heavy precipitation events on highways. Highway runoff quality data were collected from the 7th highway, in South Korea during 2007-2009. The samples were analyzed for runoff quantity and quality parameters such as COD{sub cr}, TSS, TPHs, TKN, NO{sub 3}, TP, PO{sub 4} and six heavy metals, e.g., As, Cu, Cd, Ni, Pb and Zn. Analysis of resulting hydrographs and pollutant graphs indicates that the peak of the pollutant concentrations in runoff occurs 20 min after the first rainfall runoff occurrence. The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and the rainfall intensity. The results of this study can be used as a reference for water quality management of urban highways. - Research highlights: > Field test on urban highway were performed to 50 of 100 storm events for 3 years. > The peak pollutant concentrations occurs 20 min after the first runoff. > The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and rainfall intensity. > Relationship between runoff and event mean concentration for SS and COD. > A crest of the EMC by 70-80 m{sup 3}/event and decreasing EMC after 70-80 m{sup 3}/event. - This study investigate the characterization of the EMC of runoff during rainfall event on highway.

  13. Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

    2012-12-30

    Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading.

  14. Estimation of evapotranspiration for a small catchment as an input for rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hejduk, Leszek; Banasik, Kazimierz; Krajewski, Adam; Mackiewicz, Marta

    2014-05-01

    One of the methods for determination of floods is application of mathematical rainfall-runoff models. Usually, it is possible to distinguish a number of steps for calculation of hydrograph of the flood. The first step is the calculation of effective rainfall which is a difference between total rainfall and losses (amount of water which do not participate in flood formation like interception, infiltration, evaporation etc.) . One of the most common method for determination of effective rainfall is a USDA-SCS method were losses are connected with type of the soils, vegetation and soil moisture. Those factors includes the Curve Number factor (CN). However there is also different approach for determination of losses were soil moisture is calculated as a function of evapotranspiration. In this study, the meteorological data from year 2002-2012 were used for determination of daily evapotranspiration (ETo) by use of FAO Penmana-Monteitha model for Zagozdzonka river catchment in central Poland. Due to gaps in metrological data, some other simpler methods of ETo calculation were applied like Hargraves model and Grabarczyk (1976) model. Based on received results the uncertainty of ETo was calculated. Grabarczyk S., 1976. Polowe zuzycie wody a czynniki meteorologiczne. Zesz. Probl. Post. Nauk Rol. 181, 495-511 ACKNOWLEDGMENTS The investigation described in the poster is part of the research project KORANET founded by PL-National Center for Research and Development (NCBiR).

  15. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikorska, A. E.; Scheidegger, A.; Banasik, K.; Rieckermann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

  16. Curve Number Estimation for a Small Urban Catchment from Recorded Rainfall-Runoff Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banasik Kazimierz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Runoff estimation is a key component in various hydrological considerations. Estimation of storm runoff is especially important for the effective design of hydraulic and road structures, for the flood flow management, as well as for the analysis of land use changes, i.e. urbanization or low impact development of urban areas. The curve number (CN method, developed by Soil Conservation Service (SCS of the U.S. Department of Agriculture for predicting the flood runoff depth from ungauged catchments, has been in continuous use for ca. 60 years. This method has not been extensively tested in Poland, especially in small urban catchments, because of lack of data. In this study, 39 rainfall-runoff events, collected during four years (2009–2012 in a small (A=28.7 km2, urban catchment of Służew Creek in southwest part of Warsaw were used, with the aim of determining the CNs and to check its applicability to ungauged urban areas. The parameters CN, estimated empirically, vary from 65.1 to 95.0, decreasing with rainfall size and, when sorted rainfall and runoff separately, reaching the value from 67 to 74 for large rainfall events.

  17. Multimethod evolutionary search for the regional calibration of rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lombardi, Laura; Castiglioni, Simone; Toth, Elena; Castellarin, Attilio; Montanari, Alberto

    2010-05-01

    The study focuses on regional calibration for a generic rainfall-runoff model. The maximum likelihood function in the spectral domain proposed by Whittle is approximated in the time domain by maximising the simultaneous fit (through a multiobjective optimisation) of selected statistics of streamflow values, with the aim to propose a calibration procedure that can be applied at regional scale. The method may in fact be applied without the availability of actual time series of streamflow observations, since it is based exclusively on the selected statistics, that are here obtained on the basis of the dominant climate and catchment characteristics, through regional regression relationships. The multiobjective optimisation was carried out by using a recently proposed multimethod evolutionary search algorithm (AMALGAM, Vrugt and Robinson, 2007), that runs simultaneously, for population evolution, a set of different optimisation methods (namely NSGA-II, Differential Evolution, Adaptive Metropolis Search and Particle Swarm Optimisation), resulting in a combination of the respective strengths by adaptively updating the weights of these individual methods based on their reproductive success. This ensures a fast, reliable and computationally efficient solution to multiobjective optimisation problems. The proposed technique is applied to the case study of some catchments located in central Italy, which are treated as ungauged and are located in a region where detailed hydrological and geomorfoclimatic information is available. The results obtained with the regional calibration are compared with those provided by a classical least squares calibration in the time domain. The outcomes of the analysis confirm the potentialities of the proposed methodology.

  18. The application of an analytical probabilistic model for estimating the rainfall-runoff reductions achieved using a rainwater harvesting system.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Hyoungjun; Han, Mooyoung; Lee, Ju Young

    2012-05-01

    Rainwater harvesting systems cannot only supplement on-site water needs, but also reduce water runoff and lessen downstream flooding. In this study, an existing analytic model for estimating the runoff in urban areas is modified to provide a more economical and effective model that can be used for describing rainwater harvesting. This model calculates the rainfall-runoff reduction by taking into account the catchment, storage tank, and infiltration facility of a water harvesting system; this calculation is based on the water balance equation, and the cumulative distribution, probability density, and average rainfall-runoff functions. This model was applied to a water harvesting system at the Seoul National University in order to verify its practicality. The derived model was useful for evaluating runoff reduction and for designing the storage tank capacity.

  19. Predicting shifts in rainfall-runoff partitioning during multiyear drought: Roles of dry period and catchment characteristics

    Science.gov (United States)

    Saft, Margarita; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu

    2016-12-01

    While the majority of hydrological prediction methods assume that observed interannual variability explores the full range of catchment response dynamics, recent cases of prolonged climate drying suggest otherwise. During the ˜decade-long Millennium drought in south-eastern Australia significant shifts in hydrologic behavior were reported. Catchment rainfall-runoff partitioning changed from what was previously encountered during shorter droughts, with significantly less runoff than expected occurring in many catchments. In this article, we investigate the variability in the magnitude of shift in rainfall-runoff partitioning observed during the Millennium drought. We re-evaluate a large range of factors suggested to be responsible for the additional runoff reductions. Our results suggest that the shifts were mostly influenced by catchment characteristics related to predrought climate (aridity index and rainfall seasonality) and soil and groundwater storage dynamics (predrought interannual variability of groundwater storage and mean solum thickness). The shifts were amplified by seasonal rainfall changes during the drought (spring rainfall deficits). We discuss the physical mechanisms that are likely to be associated with these factors. Our results confirm that shifts in the annual rainfall-runoff relationship represent changes in internal catchment functioning, and emphasize the importance of cumulative multiyear changes in the catchment storage for runoff generation. Prolonged drying in some regions can be expected in the future, and our results provide an indication of which catchments characteristics are associated with catchments more susceptible to a shift in their runoff response behavior.

  20. The last developments of the airGR R-package, an open source software for rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A model, - the monthly GR2M model, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J, GR5J and GR6J, - the hourly GR4H model, - a degree-day snow model CemaNeige. The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is also used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and large sample hydrology experiments. The airGR package undergoes continuous developments for improving the efficiency, computational time

  1. Integration of Spatially Hydrological Modelling on Bentong Catchment, Pahang, Peninsular Malaysia Using Distributed GIS-based Rainfall Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli, M.H.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available With the advance of GIS technology, hydrology model can simulated at catchment wide scale. The objective is to integrate National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS Curve Number (CN with kinematic wave and manning’s equation using GIS to develop a simple GIS-based distributed model to simulate rainfall runoff in Bentong catchment. Model was built using Spatial Distributed Direct Hydrograph (SDDH concept and applying the time area (TA approach in presenting the predicted discharge hydrograph. The effective precipitation estimation was first calculated using the NRCS CN method. Then, the core maps that consists of digital elevation model (DEM, soil and land use map in grid. DEM was used to derive slope, flow direction and flow accumulation while soil and land use map used to derive roughness coefficient and CN. The overland velocity and channel velocity estimation derived from combination of kinematic wave theory with Manning’s equation. To capture the time frame, the travel time map was divided into isochrones in order to generate the TA histogram and finally. The creation of SDDH using the TA histogram which will lead to the estimation of travel time for the catchment. Simulated hydrograph was plotted together with the observed discharge for comparison. Six storm events used for model performance evaluation using statistical measure such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, percent bias (PBIAS and coefficient of determination (R2;. SDDH model performed quite well as NSE gave result ranging from 0.55 to 0.68 with mean of 0.6. PBIAS indicate that the model slightly over predicted compared to observed hydrograph with result ranges from -46.71 (the most over predicted to +4.83 (the most under predicted with average of -20.73%. R2; ranges between 0.55 to 0.82 with mean of 0.67. When comparing the time to peak, (tp, min, and peak discharge, (pd, m3/s, results gave NSEtp 0.82, PBIAStp 0.65, R2tp 0.32, NSEpd 0.95, PBIASpd 14.49 and R2pd 0

  2. Application of a simple first-order, non-linear rainfall-runoff model in watersheds of varying permafrost coverage

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bolton, W. Robert; Hinzman, Larry

    2010-05-01

    The arctic and sub-arctic environments can be characterized as being in the zones continuous and discontinuous permafrost. Although the distribution of permafrost in these regions is site specific, it is the major control on many of the hydrologic processes including stream flow, soil moisture dynamics, and water storage processes. In areas underlain by permafrost, ice-rich soils a the permafrost table inhibit surface water percolation to the deep subsurface soils, resulting in an increased runoff generation during precipitation events (including snow melt), decreased baseflow between precipitation events, and relatively wetter soils compared to permafrost-free areas. Over the course of a summer season, the thawing of the active layer (the thin soil layer above the permafrost that seasonally freezes and thaws) increases the potential water holding capacity of the soil, resulting in a decreasing surface water contribution during precipitation events and a steadily increasing baseflow between precipitation events. The major challenge to hydrologic modeling in permafrost affected environments is accounting for the rapid spatial and temporal changes in the soil storage component with the thawing and freezing of the active layer and distribution of permafrost. Simulation of the storage storage component is further complicated as many of the variables that control the development of the active layer (and permafrost distribution) are not easily measurable beyond the point scale. Examples of these variables include soil material, soil moisture content, soil ice content, snow cover and depth, and surface temperature. Kirchner (2009) describes a method in which the total storage of a watershed can be derived directly from discharge measurements - the only hydrologic process that is easily measured at the watershed scale. Following the general procedure outlined by Kirchner, a simple rainfall-runoff model was developed and applied to basins of various scales and permafrost

  3. [Bioavailability of heavy metals in urban surface dust and rainfall-runoff system].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Jing; Liu, Min; Li, Xian-hua; Lin, Xiao; Wang, Li-li; Gao, Lei

    2009-08-15

    A sequential digest was used to examine the speciation of particulate-associated heavy metals in multi-media environment of surface dust and rainfall-runoff system. Within the Shanghai central district, different environment medium in four sites were sampled including street dust, runoff suspended particles, gully pot sediment and river sediment during April 2006. The result shows that in the study area, heavy metal concentrations of surface dusts are significantly higher than the Shanghai soil background values and the nonpoint runoff pollution of Pb, Cr and Ni are serious while Cd, Cu and Zn pollution degree relatively light. In the multi-media transport process, the order of heavy metal bioavailability is Zn > Ni > Cd> Cu > Pb > Cr. For Cr, Zn and Cu, the dominated chemical forms of the four different environmental media remain the same phase of residual, carbonates and organic fractions respectively. For Ni, the main fraction of surface dust is associated with residual form, while the other three media become associated with carbonate fractions. For Cd, the surface dust is mainly associated with carbonates, while runoff particles mainly with labile fractions. The dominated chemical form of Pb also changes from Fe/Mn oxides phase to organic phase. The runoff particles contain the highest percentage of the labile fraction (F1 + F2), and the mean value of transporting ratio of the runoff suspended particles equals to 1.74, indicating that in urban runoff water, the high bioavailability of the heavy metals and the potential toxicity effect deserves our attention greatly. In gutter inlet and rivers deposit components, the low percentages of the labile fraction and the higher content of residual fraction reduce the environmental risk of the heavy metals and act as the sink of these elements.

  4. [Output characteristics of rainfall runoff phosphorus pollution from a typical small watershed in Yimeng mountainous area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Zhen-wei; Liu, Qian-jin; Jing, Guang-hua

    2012-08-01

    Relationships between phosphorus pollutant concentrations and precipitation-runoff were analyzed by monitoring pollutant losses at outlets of the Menglianggu watershed in 2010. A typical small watershed was selected to examine the runoff and quality parameters such as total phosphorus (TP), particle phosphorus (PP), dissolve phosphorus (DP) and dissolve inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in rainfall-runoff of 10 rainfall events. Precipitation was above 2 mm for all the 10 rainfall events. The results showed that the peak of phosphorus concentrations occurred before the peak of water flows, whereas change processes of the phosphorus fluxes were consistent with that of the water flows and the phosphorus flux also have a strong linear relationship with the water flows. The minimums of the phosphorus concentrations in every 10 natural rainfall events have small differences with each other, but the maximum and EMCs of the phosphorus concentrations have significant differences with each rainfall event. This was mainly influenced by the precipitation, maximum rainfall intensity and mean rainfall intensity (EMCs) and was less influenced by rainfall duration. DP and TP were mainly composed of DIP and PP, respectively. There were no significant correlations between DIP/DP dynamic changes and rainfall characteristics, whereas significant correlations between PP/TP dynamic changes and maximum rainfall intensity were detected. The production of DIP, DP, AND TP were mainly influenced by the direct runoff (DR) and base flow (BF). The EMCs of DIP, DP, TP and the variations of DIP/DP were all found to have significant polynomial relationships with DR/TR., but the dynamic changes of PP/ TP and the EMCS of PP were less influenced by the DR/TR.

  5. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sikorska

    2011-12-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced by 150% with Bayesian updating, using only a few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

  6. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sikorska

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

  7. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF EROSIVITY FACTOR FOR CAMERON HIGHLAND, PAHANG, MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulkadir Taofeeq Sholagberu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff is the active agent of soil erosion which often resulted in land degradation and water quality deterioration. Its aggressiveness to induce erosion is usually termed as rainfall erosivity index or factor (R. R-factor is one of the factors to be parameterized in the evaluation of soil loss using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and its reversed versions (USLE/RUSLE. The computation of accurate R-factor for a particular watershed requires high temporal resolution rainfall (pluviograph data with less than 30-minutes intensities for at least 20 yrs, which is available only in a few regions of the world. As a result, various simplified models have been proposed by researchers to evaluate R-factor using readily available daily, monthly or annual precipitation data. This study is thus aimed at estimating R-factor and to establish an approximate relationship between R-factor and rainfall for subsequent usage in the estimation of soil loss in Cameron highlands watershed. The results of the analysis showed that the least and peak (critical R-factors occurred in the months of January and April with 660.82 and 2399.18 MJ mm ha-1 h-1year-1 respectively. Also, it was observed that erosivity power starts to increase from the month of January through April before started falling in the month of July. The monthly and annual peaks (critical periods may be attributed to increased rainfall amount due to climate change which in turn resulted to increased aggressiveness of rains to cause erosion in the study area. The correlation coefficient of 0.985 showed that there was a strong relationship rainfall and R-factor.

  8. Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijian Guo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin.

  9. Robust Parameter Estimation Framework of a Rainfall-Runoff Model Using Pareto Optimum and Minimax Regret Approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Yeonjoo Kim

    2015-03-01

    Full Text Available This study developed a robust parameter set (ROPS selection framework for a rainfall-runoff model that considers multi-events using the Pareto optimum and minimax regret approach (MRA. The calibrated parameter sets based on the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE for two events were derived using a genetic algorithm. We generated 41 combinations for weighting values between two events for the multi-event objective function and derived 41 Pareto optimum points that were considered as the ROPS candidates. Then, two different approaches for parameter selection were proposed to determine the ROPS among the candidates: one uses NSE only and the other uses four performance measures (NSE, peak flow error, root mean square error and percentage of bias. In the NSE-only method, five events, including two events from the calibration set and three events from the evaluation set, were used, and the ROPS was selected based on the regrets of both the calibration and the evaluation sets. In the multiple (i.e., four performance measure method, only three events from the evaluation set were used and the ROPS was determined based on the regrets of twelve different cases, including three events with four measures. As a result, while single- and multi-event optimizations produced satisfying results for the calibration events, the optimized parameters from the single-event calibration do not perform well for another event, even one with the same criteria, such as NSE. The results of this study suggest that the optimized parameter set from the well-weighted objective function can successfully simulate not only hydrographs in general but also others, such as peak flow. In addition, the ROPS can be selected by considering the multiple performance measures of multiple validation events, as well as the NSE only of multiple calibration and validation events. Note that the study provides a framework that could be performed reasonably well with a limited number of events. While

  10. Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

    2012-04-01

    dynamic and processes, i. e. sample heterogeneity. For a same streamflow range corresponds different processes such as rising limbs or recession, where uncertainties are different. The dynamical approach improves reliability, skills and sharpness of forecasts and globally reduces confidence intervals width. When compared in details, the dynamical approach allows a noticeable reduction of confidence intervals during recessions where uncertainty is relatively lower and a slight increase of confidence intervals during rising limbs or snowmelt where uncertainty is greater. The dynamic approach, validated by forecaster's experience that considered the empirical approach not discriminative enough, improved forecaster's confidence and communication of uncertainties. Montanari, A. and Brath, A., (2004). A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resources Research, 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540. Schaefli, B., Balin Talamba, D. and Musy, A., (2007). Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions. Journal of Hydrology, 332, 303-315.

  11. Getting a feel for parameters: using interactive parallel plots as a tool for parameter identification in the new rainfall-runoff model WALRUS

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Claudia; Torfs, Paul; Teuling, Ryan; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    Recently, we developed the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) to fill the gap between complex, spatially distributed models often used in lowland catchments and simple, parametric models which have mostly been developed for mountainous catchments (Brauer et al., 2014ab). This parametric rainfall-runoff model can be used all over the world in both freely draining lowland catchments and polders with controlled water levels. The open source model code is implemented in R and can be downloaded from www.github.com/ClaudiaBrauer/WALRUS. The structure and code of WALRUS are simple, which facilitates detailed investigation of the effect of parameters on all model variables. WALRUS contains only four parameters requiring calibration; they are intended to have a strong, qualitative relation with catchment characteristics. Parameter estimation remains a challenge, however. The model structure contains three main feedbacks: (1) between groundwater and surface water; (2) between saturated and unsaturated zone; (3) between catchment wetness and (quick/slow) flowroute division. These feedbacks represent essential rainfall-runoff processes in lowland catchments, but increase the risk of parameter dependence and equifinality. Therefore, model performance should not only be judged based on a comparison between modelled and observed discharges, but also based on the plausibility of the internal modelled variables. Here, we present a method to analyse the effect of parameter values on internal model states and fluxes in a qualitative and intuitive way using interactive parallel plotting. We applied WALRUS to ten Dutch catchments with different sizes, slopes and soil types and both freely draining and polder areas. The model was run with a large number of parameter sets, which were created using Latin Hypercube Sampling. The model output was characterised in terms of several signatures, both measures of goodness of fit and statistics of internal model variables (such as the

  12. 麦田降雨产流过程的影响因素%Influence Factors of Rainfall Runoff in the Winter Wheat Field

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘战东; 高阳; 段爱旺; 巩文军

    2012-01-01

    In order to study effects of several influence factors on rainfall runoff and the corresponding quantitative relationships in the winter wheat field,effects of some main factors on rainfall runoff characteristics,including rainfall intensity(RI),canopy cover(leaf area index,LAI) and initial water content of soil layers of 0-40 cm soil(θ40),were studied with experiments of artificial rainfall simulations.Results indicated that as the other influencing factors were fixed,the runoff intensity cumulative runoff had the obvious negative exponent function with the rainfall duration(P0.01);as RI increasing,the time started of surface flow was advanced,runoff intensity,the accumulative runoff and runoff coefficient increased.As LAI decreasing,runoff began earlier,runoff intensity,the accumulative runoff and runoff coefficient increased.When RI increased,influences of LAI on rainfall runoff process diminished.When the value of RI and LAI was fixed,the initial time of runoff was advanced with the increase of θ40,and the runoff intensity,runoff and runoff coefficient were also increased,but the stable runoff intensity were basically similar.Through the statistical analysis of the measured data of simulated rainfall,the runoff intensity,cumulative runoff could finally be fitted to four factor functions of t,RI,LAI and θ40.Runoff coefficient regression calculation model was established.%为探讨多种因素对麦田降雨产流的影响及其相应的定量关系,通过人工模拟降雨试验,研究麦田降雨强度(RI)、冠层覆盖度(用叶面积指数表示,LAI)及0-40cm土壤初始含水量(θ40)对降雨产流特征的影响。结果表明:在其他影响因素一定条件下,径流强度和累积径流量与降雨历时分别具有显著的负指数函数和幂函数关系(P〈0.01);产流时间随RI增大而提前,径流强度、累积径流量和径流系数随RI增大而增大;产流时间随LAI的减少而提前,径流强度

  13. SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds – the two-CN system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Valiantzas

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN parameter values corresponding to various soil, land cover, and land management conditions can be selected from tables, but it is preferable to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data if available. However, previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. Hence, they suggested the determination of a single asymptotic CN value observed for very high rainfall depths to characterize the watersheds' runoff response. In this paper, the hypothesis that the observed correlation between the calculated CN value and the rainfall depth in a watershed reflects the effect of soils and land cover spatial variability on its hydrologic response is being tested. Based on this hypothesis, the simplified concept of a two-CN heterogeneous system is introduced to model the observed CN-rainfall variation by reducing the CN spatial variability into two classes. The behaviour of the CN-rainfall function produced by the simplified two-CN system is approached theoretically, it is analysed systematically, and it is found to be similar to the variation observed in natural watersheds. Synthetic data tests, natural watersheds examples, and detailed study of two natural experimental watersheds with known spatial heterogeneity characteristics were used to evaluate the method. The results indicate that the determination of CN values from rainfall runoff data using the proposed two-CN system approach provides reasonable accuracy and it over performs the previous methods based on the determination of a single asymptotic CN value. Although the suggested method increases the number of unknown parameters to three (instead of one, a clear physical reasoning for them is presented.

  14. Using natural Chinese zeolite to remove ammonium from rainfall runoff following urea fertilization of a paddy rice field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Ling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Song-Min; Li, Jian-Sheng

    2016-03-01

    The potential of natural Chinese zeolite to remove ammonium from rainfall runoff following urea applications to a paddy rice field is assessed in this study. Laboratory batch kinetic and isotherm experiments were carried out first to investigate the ammonium adsorption capacity of the natural zeolite. Field experiments using zeolite adsorption barriers installed at drain outlets in a paddy rice field were also carried out during natural rainfall events to evaluate the barrier's dynamic removal capacity of ammonium. The results demonstrate that the adsorption kinetics are accurately described by the Elovich model, with a coefficient of determination (R (2)) ranging from 0.9705 to 0.9709, whereas the adsorption isotherm results indicate that the Langmuir-Freundlich model provides the best fit (R (2) = 0.992) for the equilibrium data. The field experiments show that both the flow rate and the barrier volume are important controls on ammonium removal from rainfall runoff. A low flow rate leads to a higher ammonium removal efficiency at the beginning of the tests, while a high flow rate leads to a higher quantity of ammonium adsorbed over the entire runoff process.

  15. [Comparative study on characteristics of urban rainfall runoff from two urban lawn catchments in Macau and Xiamen].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Huang, Jin-liang; Tu, Zhen-shun; Du, Peng-fei; Li, Qing-sheng; Lin, Jie; Yang, Long-qi

    2009-12-01

    A comparative study on characteristics of stormwater runoff from two urban lawn catchments in Macau (ELH) and Xiamen (PGH) with separated sewer system were conducted. The result obtained shows that COD, TP and NO3- -N are the major pollutants with mean EMC of 165.77-60.48 mg/L, 0.96-0.44 mg/L and 7.16-1.18 mg/L, respectively, and the mean values of pollutants loads of COD, TP and NO3- -N from study lawn catchments are 6.53-0.63 kg/hm2, 0.0375-0.0047 kg/hm2 and 0.0122-0.0128 kg/hm2, respectively. Peak values of major pollutant concentrations usually precede the flow peak. First flush effect of rainfall runoff from two study catchments is no obvious, which can be reflected by the low mean value of FF30 of TSS, COD, TP and NO3- -N, with 36.26%, 26.13%, 28.13% and 39.03%, respectively. Based on multivariate statistical analysis, first flush effect from urban lawn rainfall runoff is greatly influenced by total rainfall amount (Tr) and total runoff volume (V).

  16. A stochastic space-time rainfall forecasting system for real time flow forecasting II: Application of SHETRAN and ARNO rainfall runoff models to the Brue catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    D. Mellor

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Key issues involved in converting MTB ensemble forecasts of rainfall into ensemble forecasts of runoff are addressed. The physically-based distributed modelling system, SHETRAN, is parameterised for the Brue catchment, and used to assess the impact of averaging spatially variable MTB rainfall inputs on the accuracy of simulated runoff response. Averaging is found to have little impact for wet antecedent conditions and to lead to some underestimation of peak discharge under dry catchment conditions. The simpler ARNO modelling system is also parameterised for the Brue and SHETRAN and ARNO calibration and validation results are found to be similar. Ensemble forecasts of runoff generated using both SHETRAN and the simpler ARNO modelling system are compared. The ensemble is more spread out with the SHETRAN model, and a likely explanation is that the ARNO model introduces too much smoothing. Nevertheless, the forecasting performance of the simpler model could be adequate for flood warning purposes. Keywords: SHETRAN, ARNO, HYREX, rainfall-runoff model, Brue, real-time flow forecasting

  17. 关于降雨径流渗入系数的讨论%Discussion on Rainfall Runoff Penetration Coefficient

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    洪安娜

    2016-01-01

    分析了影响降雨径流渗入系数取值的多种因素,综合考虑这些因素的影响,提出了对降雨渗入区域进行详细分区,选取与这些因素影响结果相匹配的降雨径流渗入系数来估算矿坑降雨径流渗入量的方法。%The paper analyzes the various factors of affecting rainfall runoff penetration coefficient, by taking these factors into accounts, detailed zoning will be presented in rainfall penetration area, and the paper selects the method of the pit rainfall runoff penetration amount evaluated by rainfall runoff penetration factors to match with these factors.

  18. Two-step calibration and proxy-basin validation of ensemble rainfall-runoff predictions in a Swedish mesoscale catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Exbrayat, Jean-Francois; Viney, Neil R.; Seibert, Jan; Frede, Hans-Georg; Breuer, Lutz

    2010-05-01

    This study proposes to evaluate the effect of ensemble modelling in a two-step calibration and validation approach. Five different rainfall-runoff models, LASCAM, LASCAM-S, INCA, SWAT and HBV-N-D, were applied to the mesoscale River Fyris catchment (Mid-Eastern Sweden). Runoff in this region shows a spring flood peak as well as high flows during fall. The five models are conceptually different in their way to describe the catchment hydrology as illustrated by various spatial calculations units, flux processes, water storages and layers. For two non-nested sub-catchments daily discharge data were available for the five-year long study period. Models were setup using the same climatic data set. Single-objective calibrations were conducted for each discharge record and model. The calibration criterion was the average value of Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiencies calculated for discharge (focusing on high flows) and logarithmic discharge (focusing on low flows). In a second step, multi-model ensembles were compiled using the calibrated runs as ensemble members by the following different merging schemes: • daily mean of the predictions for each day, • daily median of all ensemble members, • daily weighted mean, with weights set according to the respective calibration criterion values, • multiple linear regression ensembles using the single runs as independent variables and the observations as dependent variables, and • multiple linear regression ensembles compiled in the same way but with constraining the regression to a zero intercept. The same calibration criterion than for the single models as well as the bias were computed for each generated ensembles. They were used as goodness-of-fit descriptors and their values were compared between single ensemble members and multi-model ensembles. The uncertainty bounds described by the calibrated runs and the corresponding set of generated ensembles were analysed in terms of range of predictions (or spread) and matching rate

  19. A COMPARATIVE STUDY ON CALIBRATION METHODS OF NASH’S RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODEL TO AMMAMEH WATERSHED, IRAN

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Vahid Nourani

    2008-06-01

    Full Text Available Increasing importance of watershed management during last decades highlighted the need for sufficient data and accurate estimation of rainfall and runoff within watersheds. Therefore, various conceptual models have been developed with parameters based on observed data. Since further investigations depend on these parameters, it is important to accurately estimate them. This study by utilizing various methods, tries to estimate Nash rainfall-runoff model parameters and then evaluate the reliability of parameter estimation methods; moment, least square error, maximum likelihood, maximum entropy and genetic algorithm. Results based on a case study on the data from Ammameh watershed in Central Iran, indicate that the genetic algorithm method, which has been developed based on artificial intelligence, more accurately estimates Nash’s model parameters.

  20. The Impact of the Variability of Precipitation and Temperatures on the Efficiency of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sleziak, P.; Szolgay, J.; Hlavčová, K.; Parajka, J.

    2016-12-01

    The main objective of the paper is to understand how the model's efficiency and the selected climatic indicators are related. The hydrological model applied in this study is a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model), which was developed at the Vienna University of Technology. This model was calibrated over three different periods between 1981-2010 in three groups of Austrian catchments (snow, runoff, and soil catchments), which represent a wide range of the hydroclimatic conditions of Austria. The model's calibration was performed using a differential evolution algorithm (Deoptim). As an objective function, we used a combination of the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE) and the logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (logNSE). The model's efficiency was evaluated by Volume error (VE). Subsequently, we evaluated the relationship between the model's efficiency (VE) and changes in the climatic indicators (precipitation ΔP, air temperature ΔT). The implications of findings are discussed in the conclusion.

  1. Analysis of regional rainfall-runoff parameters for the Lake Michigan Diversion hydrological modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soong, David T.; Over, Thomas M.

    2015-01-01

    The Lake Michigan Diversion Accounting (LMDA) system has been developed by the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, Chicago District (USACE-Chicago) and the State of Illinois as a part of the interstate Great Lakes water regulatory program. The diverted Lake Michigan watershed is a 673-square-mile watershed that is comprised of the Chicago River and Calumet River watersheds. They originally drained into Lake Michigan, but now flow to the Mississippi River watershed via three canals constructed in the Chicago area in the early twentieth century. Approximately 393 square miles of the diverted watershed is ungaged, and the runoff from the ungaged portion of the diverted watershed has been estimated by the USACE-Chicago using the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF) program. The accuracy of simulated runoff depends on the accuracy of the parameter set used in the HSPF program. Nine parameter sets comprised of the North Branch, Little Calumet, Des Plaines, Hickory Creek, CSSC, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008 have been developed at different time periods and used by the USACE-Chicago. In this study, the U.S. Geological Survey and the USACE-Chicago collaboratively analyzed the parameter sets using nine gaged watersheds in or adjacent to the diverted watershed to assess the predictive accuracies of selected parameter sets. Six of the parameter sets, comprising North Branch, Hickory Creek, NIPC, 1999, CTE, and 2008, were applied to the nine gaged watersheds for evaluating their simulation accuracy from water years 1996 to 2011. The nine gaged watersheds were modeled by using the three LMDA land-cover types (grass, forest, and hydraulically connected imperviousness) based on the 2006 National Land Cover Database, and the latest meteorological and precipitation data consistent with the current (2014) LMDA modeling framework.

  2. Rainfall-runoff modelling in a catchment with a complex groundwater flow system: application of the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, G. P.; Savenije, H. H. G.

    2005-09-01

    Based on the Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) approach, the modelling tool REWASH (Representative Elementary WAterShed Hydrology) has been developed and applied to the Geer river basin. REWASH is deterministic, semi-distributed, physically based and can be directly applied to the watershed scale. In applying REWASH, the river basin is divided into a number of sub-watersheds, so called REWs, according to the Strahler order of the river network. REWASH describes the dominant hydrological processes, i.e. subsurface flow in the unsaturated and saturated domains, and overland flow by the saturation-excess and infiltration-excess mechanisms. The coupling of surface and subsurface flow processes in the numerical model is realised by simultaneous computation of flux exchanges between surface and subsurface domains for each REW. REWASH is a parsimonious tool for modelling watershed hydrological response. However, it can be modified to include more components to simulate specific processes when applied to a specific river basin where such processes are observed or considered to be dominant. In this study, we have added a new component to simulate interception using a simple parametric approach. Interception plays an important role in the water balance of a watershed although it is often disregarded. In addition, a refinement for the transpiration in the unsaturated zone has been made. Finally, an improved approach for simulating saturation overland flow by relating the variable source area to both the topography and the groundwater level is presented. The model has been calibrated and verified using a 4-year data set, which has been split into two for calibration and validation. The model performance has been assessed by multi-criteria evaluation. This work represents a complete application of the REW approach to watershed rainfall-runoff modelling in a real watershed. The results demonstrate that the REW approach provides an alternative blueprint for physically

  3. Use of KNN technique to improve the efficiency of SCE-UA optimisation method applied to the calibration of HBV Rainfall-Runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dakhlaoui, H.; Bargaoui, Z.

    2007-12-01

    The Calibration of Rainfall-Runoff models can be viewed as an optimisation problem involving an objective function that measures the model performance expressed as a distance between observed and calculated discharges. Effectiveness (ability to find the optimum) and efficiency (cost expressed in number of objective function evaluations to reach the optimum) are the main criteria of choose of the optimisation method. SCE-UA is known as one of the most effective and efficient optimisation method. In this work we tried to improve the SCE-UA efficiency, in the case of the calibration of HBV model by using KNN technique to estimate the objective function. In fact after a number of iterations by SCE-UA, when objective function is evaluated by model simulation, a data base of parameter explored and respective objective function values is constituted. Within this data base it is proposed to estimate the objective function in further iterations, by an interpolation using nearest neighbours in a normalised parameter space with weighted Euclidean distance. Weights are chosen proportional to the sensitivity of parameter to objective function that gives more importance to sensitive parameter. Evaluation of model output is done through the objective function RV=R2- w |RD| where R2 is Nash Sutcliffe coefficient related to discharges, w : a weight and RD the relative bias. Applied to theoretical and practical cases in several catchments under different climatic conditions : Rottweil (Germany) and Tessa, Barbra, and Sejnane (Tunisia), the hybrid SCE-UA presents efficiency better then that of initial SCE-UA by about 20 to 30 %. By using other techniques as parameter space transformation and SCE-UA modification (2), we may obtain an algorithm two to three times faster. (1) Avi Ostfeld, Shani Salomons, "A hybrid genetic-instance learning algorithm for CE*QAL-W2 calibration", Journal of Hydrology 310 (2005) 122-125 (2) Nitin Mutil and Shie-Yui Liong, "Improved robustness and Efficiency

  4. A weakly-constrained data assimilation approach to address rainfall-runoff model structural inadequacy in streamflow prediction

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Haksu; Seo, Dong-Jun; Noh, Seong Jin

    2016-11-01

    This paper presents a simple yet effective weakly-constrained (WC) data assimilation (DA) approach for hydrologic models which accounts for model structural inadequacies associated with rainfall-runoff transformation processes. Compared to the strongly-constrained (SC) DA, WC DA adjusts the control variables less while producing similarly or more accurate analysis. Hence the adjusted model states are dynamically more consistent with those of the base model. The inadequacy of a rainfall-runoff model was modeled as an additive error to runoff components prior to routing and penalized in the objective function. Two example modeling applications, distributed and lumped, were carried out to investigate the effects of the WC DA approach on DA results. For distributed modeling, the distributed Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) model was applied to the TIFM7 Basin in Missouri, USA. For lumped modeling, the lumped SAC-SMA model was applied to nineteen basins in Texas. In both cases, the variational DA (VAR) technique was used to assimilate discharge data at the basin outlet. For distributed SAC-SMA, spatially homogeneous error modeling yielded updated states that are spatially much more similar to the a priori states, as quantified by Earth Mover's Distance (EMD), than spatially heterogeneous error modeling by up to ∼10 times. DA experiments using both lumped and distributed SAC-SMA modeling indicated that assimilating outlet flow using the WC approach generally produce smaller mean absolute difference as well as higher correlation between the a priori and the updated states than the SC approach, while producing similar or smaller root mean square error of streamflow analysis and prediction. Large differences were found in both lumped and distributed modeling cases between the updated and the a priori lower zone tension and primary free water contents for both WC and SC approaches, indicating possible model structural deficiency in describing low flows or

  5. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of rainfall-runoff models for small urban basins - the influence of the rating curve

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sikorska, A. E.; Scheidegger, A.; Banasik, K.; Rieckermann, J.

    2012-04-01

    Keywords: uncertainty assessment, rating curve uncertainties, Bayesian inference, rainfall-runoff models, small urban basins In hydrological flood forecasting, the problem of quantitative assessment of predictive uncertainties has been widely recognized. Despite several important findings in recent years, which helped to distinguish uncertainty contribution from input uncertainty (e.g., due to poor rainfall data), model structure deficits, parameter uncertainties and measurement errors, uncertainty analysis still remains a challenging task. This is especially true for small urbanized basins, where monitoring data are often poor. Among other things, measurement errors have been generally assumed to be significantly smaller than the other sources of uncertainty. It has been also shown that input error and model structure deficits are contributing more to the predictive uncertainties than uncertainties regarding the model parameters (Sikorska et al., 2011). These assumptions, however, are only correct when the modeled output is directly measurable in the system. Unfortunately, river discharge usually cannot be directly measured but is converted from the measured water stage with a rating curve method. The uncertainty introduced by the rating curve was shown in resent studies (Di Baldassarre et al., 2011) to be potentially significant in flood forecasting. This is especially true when extrapolating a rating curve above the measured level, which is often the case in (urban) flooding. In this work, we therefore investigated how flood predictions for small urban basins are affected by the uncertainties associated with the rating curve. To this aim, we augmented the model structure of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model to include the applied rating curve. This enabled us not only to directly modeled measurable water levels instead of discharges, but also to propagate the uncertainty of the rating curve through the model. To compare the importance of the rating curve to the

  6. Separation of drainage runoff during rainfall-runoff episodes using the stable isotope method and drainage water temperature

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zajíček, Antonín; Kvítek, Tomáš; Pomije, Tomáš

    2014-05-01

    Stabile isotopes of 2H 18O and drainage water temperature were used as natural tracers for separation rainfall-runoff event hydrograph on several tile drained catchments located in Bohemian-Moravian Highland, Czech Republic. Small agricultural catchments with drainage systems built in slopes are typical for foothill areas in the Czech and Moravian highland. Often without permanent surface runoff, the drainage systems represent an important portion of runoff and nitrogen leaching out of the catchment. The knowledge of the drainage runoff formation and the origin of its components are prerequisites for formulation of measures leading to improvement of the drainage water quality and reduction of nutrient leaching from the drained catchments. The results have proved presence of event water in the drainage runoff during rainfall-runoff events. The proportion of event water observed in the drainage runoff varied between 15 - 60 % in the summer events and 0 - 50 % in winter events, while the sudden water temperature change was between 0,1 - 4,2 °C (2 - 35 %). The comparison of isotope separation of the drainage runoff and monitoring the drainage water temperature have demonstrated that in all cases of event water detected in the runoff, a rapid change in the drainage water temperature was observed as well. The portion of event water in the runoff grows with the growing change in water temperature. Using component mixing model, it was demonstrated that water temperature can be successfully used at least as a qualitative and with some degree of inaccuracy as a quantitative tracer as well. The drawback of the non-conservative character of this tracer is compensated by both its economic and technical accessibility. The separation results also resemble results of separations at small streams. Together with a similarly high speed of the discharge reaction to beginning of precipitation, it is obvious that the mechanism of surface runoff formation and drainage runoff formation

  7. Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Despite increased interest in watershed scale model simulations, literature lacks application of long-term data in fuzzy logic simulations and comparing outputs with physically based models such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender). The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy...

  8. Investigating source water Cryptosporidium concentration, species and infectivity rates during rainfall-runoff in a multi-use catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Swaffer, Brooke A; Vial, Hayley M; King, Brendon J; Daly, Robert; Frizenschaf, Jacqueline; Monis, Paul T

    2014-12-15

    Protozoan pathogens present a significant human health concern, and prevention of contamination into potable networks remains a key focus for drinking water providers. Here, we monitored the change in Cryptosporidium concentration in source water during high flow events in a multi-use catchment. Furthermore, we investigated the diversity of Cryptosporidium species/genotypes present in the source water, and delivered an oocyst infectivity fraction. There was a positive and significant correlation between Cryptosporidium concentration and flow (ρ = 0.756) and turbidity (ρ = 0.631) for all rainfall-runoff events, despite variable source water pathogen concentrations. Cell culture assays measured oocyst infectivity and suggested an overall source water infectious fraction of 3.1%. No infectious Cryptosporidium parvum or Cryptosporidium hominis were detected, although molecular testing detected C. parvum in 7% of the samples analysed using PCR-based molecular techniques. Twelve Cryptosporidium species/genotypes were identified using molecular techniques, and were reflective of the host animals typically found in remnant vegetation and agricultural areas. The inclusion of molecular approaches to identify Cryptosporidium species and genotypes highlighted the diversity of pathogens in water, which originated from various sources across the catchment. We suggest this mixing of runoff water from a range of landuses containing diverse Cryptosporidium hosts is a key explanation for the often-cited difficulty forming strong pathogen-indicator relationships.

  9. A review of 40 years of hydrological science and practice in southern Africa using the Pitman rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hughes, D. A.

    2013-09-01

    The 40th anniversary of the initial development of the Pitman rainfall-runoff (developed in South Africa and widely applied throughout southern Africa) approximately coincides with the end of the IAHS PUB programme and the start of a new decade focussing on hydrological change (Panta Rhei) and society. The paper reviews the developments and applications of the Pitman model in the context of the appropriate outcomes of PUB and the proposed future directions of Panta Rhei. The focus of development of the Pitman model has been dominated by practical applications, while PUB was largely dominated by science issues. While some of the PUB principles have been applied with the Pitman model, there are others that are deemed inappropriate for practical modelling and others that would almost certainly benefit the Pitman model applications in the future. The paper includes discussions of the model structure, input data, parameters and output evaluations - all in the context of uncertainty. The capabilities of the model to address societal development impacts are also discussed and a brief example of an uncertainty approach to applying the model is provided. The conclusions are that some developments of the Pitman model anticipated more recent international developments, while others have not been ignored even if further efforts are required to effectively implement them. Perhaps the largest gap in applying uncertainty principles in practice is how to use them in water resources decision making.

  10. 2D Flood Modelling Using Advanced Terrain Analysis Techniques And A Fully Continuous DEM-Based Rainfall-Runoff Algorithm

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nardi, F.; Grimaldi, S.; Petroselli, A.

    2012-12-01

    Remotely sensed Digital Elevation Models (DEMs), largely available at high resolution, and advanced terrain analysis techniques built in Geographic Information Systems (GIS), provide unique opportunities for DEM-based hydrologic and hydraulic modelling in data-scarce river basins paving the way for flood mapping at the global scale. This research is based on the implementation of a fully continuous hydrologic-hydraulic modelling optimized for ungauged basins with limited river flow measurements. The proposed procedure is characterized by a rainfall generator that feeds a continuous rainfall-runoff model producing flow time series that are routed along the channel using a bidimensional hydraulic model for the detailed representation of the inundation process. The main advantage of the proposed approach is the characterization of the entire physical process during hydrologic extreme events of channel runoff generation, propagation, and overland flow within the floodplain domain. This physically-based model neglects the need for synthetic design hyetograph and hydrograph estimation that constitute the main source of subjective analysis and uncertainty of standard methods for flood mapping. Selected case studies show results and performances of the proposed procedure as respect to standard event-based approaches.

  11. Parameterization of a rainfall-runoff model based on the utility of the forecasts for a specific stakeholder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cappelletti, Matteo; Toth, Elena

    2016-04-01

    The work presents the application of a new method for calibration of an hydrological rainfall-runoff model, based on the use of utility functions. The utility function is defined on the basis of the specific purpose of the desired predictions, according to the needs of the stakeholders that will use them: in the present case, the purpose is the identification of the future streamflow occurrences that will surpass an assigned threshold runoff, thus helping the stakeholder in the decisions concerning the issuance of flood watches and warnings in the operation of a flood forecasting system. The chosen utility function is based on both the absolute error of the model and the values of the observed streamflow. In addition to the parameterization developed using the utility function, in an application referred to a mid-sized mountain watershed in Tuscany (Italy), the model response was studied, as a term of comparison, also using traditional mono- and multi-objective calibration approaches. The results, evaluated also using skill scores based on false and missed alarms as well as on the probability of detection and frequency of hits of the threshold runoff (widely adopted when assessing the value of both meteorological and hydrological forecasts in real-world flood warning systems), demonstrate that the proposed approach may allow an improvement of the model performances, if compared with traditional mono-objective and multi-objective calibration procedures, in respect to the actual utility of the forecasts for a specific stakeholder.

  12. Hydraulic Geometry, GIS and Remote Sensing, Techniques against Rainfall-Runoff Models for Estimating Flood Magnitude in Ephemeral Fluvial Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Garcia-Lorenzo

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the combined use of remotely sensed data and hydraulic geometry methods as an alternative to rainfall-runoff models. Hydraulic geometric data and boolean images of water sheets obtained from satellite images after storm events were integrated in a Geographical Information System. Channel cross-sections were extracted from a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM and superimposed on the image cover to estimate the peak flow using HEC-RAS. The proposed methodology has been tested in ephemeral channels (ramblas on the coastal zone in south-eastern Spain. These fluvial systems constitute an important natural hazard due to their high discharges and sediment loads. In particular, different areas affected by floods during the period 1997 to 2009 were delimited through HEC-GeoRAs from hydraulic geometry data and Landsat images of these floods (Landsat‑TM5 and Landsat-ETM+7. Such an approach has been validated against rainfall-surface runoff models (SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph, SCSD, Témez gamma HU Tγ and the Modified Rational method, MRM comparing their results with flood hydrographs of the Automatic Hydrologic Information System (AHIS in several ephemeral channels in the Murcia Region. The results obtained from the method providing a better fit were used to calculate different hydraulic geometry parameters, especially in residual flood areas.

  13. A method to employ the spatial organization of catchments into semi-distributed rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oppel, Henning; Schumann, Andreas

    2017-08-01

    A distributed or semi-distributed deterministic hydrological model should consider the hydrologically most relevant catchment characteristics. These are heterogeneously distributed within a watershed but often interrelated and subject to a certain spatial organization which results in archetypes of combined characteristics. In order to reproduce the natural rainfall-runoff response the reduction of variance of catchment properties as well as the incorporation of the spatial organization of the catchment are desirable. In this study the width-function approach is utilized as a basic characteristic to analyse the succession of catchment characteristics. By applying this technique we were able to assess the context of catchment properties like soil or topology along the streamflow length and the network geomorphology, giving indications of the spatial organization of a catchment. Moreover, this information and this technique have been implemented in an algorithm for automated sub-basin ascertainment, which included the definition of zones within the newly defined sub-basins. The objective was to provide sub-basins that were less heterogeneous than common separation schemes. The algorithm was applied to two parameters characterizing the topology and soil of four mid-European watersheds. Resulting partitions indicated a wide range of applicability for the method and the algorithm. Additionally, the intersection of derived zones for different catchment characteristics could give insights into sub-basin similarities. Finally, a HBV96 case study demonstrated the potential benefits of modelling with the new subdivision technique.

  14. Performance of Geno-Fuzzy Model on rainfall-runoff predictions in claypan watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fuzzy logic provides a relatively simple approach to simulate complex hydrological systems while accounting for the uncertainty of environmental variables. The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy inference system (FIS) with genetic algorithm (GA) optimization for membership functions (MF...

  15. Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days) through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS)

    OpenAIRE

    Pappenberger, F.; K. J. Beven; N. M. Hunter; Bates, P. D.; B. T. Gouweleeuw; Thielen, J.; A. P. J. De De Roo

    2005-01-01

    International audience; The political pressure on the scientific community to provide medium to long term flood forecasts has increased in the light of recent flooding events in Europe. Such demands can be met by a system consisting of three different model components (weather forecast, rainfall-runoff forecast and flood inundation forecast) which are all liable to considerable uncertainty in the input, output and model parameters. Thus, an understanding of cascaded uncertainties is a necessa...

  16. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  17. Connecticut Highlands Technical Report - Documentation of the Regional Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahearn, Elizabeth A.; Bjerklie, David M.

    2010-01-01

    This report provides the supporting data and describes the data sources, methodologies, and assumptions used in the assessment of existing and potential water resources of the Highlands of Connecticut and Pennsylvania (referred to herein as the “Highlands”). Included in this report are Highlands groundwater and surface-water use data and the methods of data compilation. Annual mean streamflow and annual mean base-flow estimates from selected U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) gaging stations were computed using data for the period of record through water year 2005. The methods of watershed modeling are discussed and regional and sub-regional water budgets are provided. Information on Highlands surface-water-quality trends is presented. USGS web sites are provided as sources for additional information on groundwater levels, streamflow records, and ground- and surface-water-quality data. Interpretation of these data and the findings are summarized in the Highlands study report.

  18. Conditioning rainfall-runoff model parameters for ungauged catchments and land management impacts analysis

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    N. Bulygina

    2009-06-01

    Full Text Available Data scarcity and model over-parameterisation, leading to model equifinality and large prediction uncertainty, are common barriers to effective hydrological modelling. The problem can be alleviated by constraining the prior parameter space using parameter regionalisation. A common basis for regionalisation in the UK is the HOST database which provides estimates of hydrological indices for different soil classifications. In our study, Base Flow Index is estimated from the HOST database and the power of this index for constraining the parameter space is explored. The method is applied to a highly discretised distributed model of a 12.5 km2 upland catchment in Wales. To assess probabilistic predictions against flow observations, a probabilistic version of the Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency is derived. For six flow gauges with reliable data, this efficiency ranged between 0.70 and 0.81, and inspection of the results shows that the model explains the data well. Knowledge of how Base Flow Index and interception losses may change under future land use management interventions was then used to further condition the model. Two interventions are considered: afforestation of grazed areas, and soil degradation associated with increased grazing intensity. Afforestation leads to median reduction in modelled runoff volume of 24% over the simulated 3 month period; and a median peak flow reduction ranging from 12 to 15% over the six gauges for the largest simulated event. Uncertainty in all results is low compared to prior uncertainty and it is concluded that using Base Flow Index estimated from HOST is a simple and potentially powerful method of conditioning the parameter space under current and future land management.

  19. Linkage of Rainfall-Runoff and Hurricane Storm Surge in Galveston Bay

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deitz, R.; Christian, J.; Wright, G.; Fang, N.; Bedient, P.

    2012-12-01

    In conjunction with the SSPEED Center, large rainfall events in the upper Gulf of Mexico are being studied in an effort to help design a surge gate to protect the Houston Ship Channel during hurricane events. The ship channel is the world's second largest petrochemical complex and the Coast Guard estimates that a one-month closure would have a $60 billion dollar impact on the national economy. In this effort, statistical design storms, such as the 24-hour PMP, as well as historical storms, like Hurricane Ike, Hurricane Katrina, and Hurricane Rita, are being simulated in a hydrologic/hydraulic model using radar and rain gauge data. VfloTM, a distributed hydrologic model, is being used to quantify the effect that storm size, intensity, and location has on timing and peak flows in the in the upper drainage area. These hydrographs were input to a hydraulic model with various storm surges from Galveston Bay. Results indicate that there is a double peak phenomenon with flows from the west draining days earlier than flows from the north. With storm surge typically lasting 36-48 hours, this indicates the flows from the west are interacting with the storm surge, whereas flows from the north would arrive once the storm surge is receding. Gate operations were optimized in the model to account for the relative timing of upland runoff and hurricane surge, and to quantify the capability of the gate structure to protect the Ship Channel industry.

  20. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date, res...... in this analysis. In conclusion, further research must focus on the development of model structures that allow the proper separation of dry and wet weather uncertainties and simulate runoff uncertainties depending on the rainfall input.......Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date......, research has primarily focused on one-step-ahead flow predictions for identifying, estimating, and evaluating greybox models. For control purposes, however, stochastic predictions are required for longer forecast horizons and for the prediction of runoff volumes, rather than flows. This article therefore...

  1. Rainfall-runoff modeling at Jinsha River basin by integrated neural network with discrete wavelet transform

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tayyab, Muhammad; Zhou, Jianzhong; Dong, Xiaohua; Ahmad, Ijaz; Sun, Na

    2017-09-01

    Artificial neural network (ANN) models combined with time series decomposition are widely employed to calculate the river flows; however, the influence of the application of diverse decomposing approaches on assessing correctness is inadequately compared and examined. This study investigates the certainty of monthly streamflow by applying ANNs including feed forward back propagation neural network and radial basis function neural network (RBFNN) models integrated with discrete wavelet transform (DWT), at Jinsha River basin in the upper reaches of Yangtze River of China. The effect of the noise factor of the decomposed time series on the prediction correctness has also been argued in this paper. Data have been analyzed by comparing the simulation outputs of the models with the correlation coefficient (R) root mean square errors, mean absolute errors, mean absolute percentage error and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency. Results show that time series decomposition technique DWT contributes in improving the accuracy of streamflow prediction, as compared to single ANN's. The detailed comparative analysis showed that the RBFNN integrated with DWT has better forecasting capabilities as compared to other developed models. Moreover, for high-precision streamflow prediction, the high-frequency section of the original time series is very crucial, which is understandable in flood season.

  2. Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basarudin, Z.; Adnan, N. A.; Latif, A. R. A.; Tahir, W.; Syafiqah, N.

    2014-02-01

    Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area.

  3. [Hydrology and water quality of rainfall-runoff in combined sewerage system along Suzhou Creek in central Shanghai].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jiang; Yang, Kai; Huang, Xiao-Fang; Lü, Yong-Peng

    2009-07-15

    In order to obtain the processes of hydrology and water quality of urban combined sewerage system (CSS) in highly urbanized region, the precipitation, discharge and pollutant concentration of four different intensity rainfall (light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and storm) were measured from Jul. to Sep. 2007 in the Chendulu CSS along Suzhou Creek in Shanghai. The results show that the shapes of runoff graph are similar to rainfall graph, with a weaker fluctuation range and a 15-25 min delay between rainfall and runoff graph. Runoff coefficients of the four different rainfall are 0.33, 0.62, 0.67 and 0.73, respectively. The 30/30 first flush phenomenon is found in Chendulu CSS. The peak of pollutant concentration graph lags rainfall peak about 30-40 min. The pH and event mean concentration (EMC) of Cu, Zn, Cr, Cd, Pb and Ni totally measure up to environmental quality standards V for surface water of China besides COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, and the EMC of COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP are 225.0-544.1, 31.5-98.9, 8.9-44.2 and 1.98-3.52 mg x L(-1), respectively. The rainfall-runoff pollutant concentration in Chendulu CSS is close to those of other foreign cites. At the confidence level of p < 0.01, good relationships exist between SS and COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, respectively, and the average proportion of particulate organic pollutant and nutrient is 70.21%.

  4. Impact of urbanization on rainfall-runoff processes: case study in the Liangshui River Basin in Beijing, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xu, Zongxue; Zhao, Gang

    2016-05-01

    China is undergoing rapid urbanization during the past decades. For example, the proportion of urban population in Beijing has increased from 57.6 % in 1980 to 86.3 % in 2013. Rapid urbanization has an adverse impact on the urban rainfall-runoff processes, which may result in the increase of urban flood risk. In the present study, the major purpose is to investigate the impact of land use/cover change on hydrological processes. The intensive human activities, such as the increase of impervious area, changes of river network morphology, construction of drainage system and water transfer, were considered in this study. Landsat TM images were adopted to monitor urbanization process based on Urban Land-use Index (ULI). The SWMM model considering different urbanized scenarios and anthropogenic disturbance was developed. The measured streamflow data was used for model calibration and validation. Precipitation with different return periods was taken as model input to analyse the changes of flood characteristics under different urbanized scenarios. The results indicated that SWMM provided a good estimation for storms under different urbanized scenarios. The volume of surface runoff after urbanization was 3.5 times greater than that before urbanization; the coefficient of runoff changed from 0.12 to 0.41, and the ratio of infiltration decreased from 88 to 60 %. After urbanization, the time of overland flow concentration increased while the time of river concentration decreased; the peak time did not show much difference in this study. It was found that the peak flow of 20-year return-period after urbanization is greater than that of 100-year return-period before urbanization. The amplification effect of urbanization on flood is significant, resulting in an increase of the flooding risk. These effects are especially noticeable for extreme precipitation. The results in this study will provide technical support for the planning and management of urban storm water and the

  5. Impact of rainfall spatial distribution on rainfall-runoff modelling efficiency and initial soil moisture conditions estimation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Y. Tramblay

    2011-01-01

    Full Text Available A good knowledge of rainfall is essential for hydrological operational purposes such as flood forecasting. The objective of this paper was to analyze, on a relatively large sample of flood events, how rainfall-runoff modeling using an event-based model can be sensitive to the use of spatial rainfall compared to mean areal rainfall over the watershed. This comparison was based not only on the model's efficiency in reproducing the flood events but also through the estimation of the initial conditions by the model, using different rainfall inputs. The initial conditions of soil moisture are indeed a key factor for flood modeling in the Mediterranean region. In order to provide a soil moisture index that could be related to the initial condition of the model, the soil moisture output of the Safran-Isba-Modcou (SIM model developed by Météo-France was used. This study was done in the Gardon catchment (545 km2 in South France, using uniform or spatial rainfall data derived from rain gauge and radar for 16 flood events. The event-based model considered combines the SCS runoff production model and the Lag and Route routing model. Results show that spatial rainfall increases the efficiency of the model. The advantage of using spatial rainfall is marked for some of the largest flood events. In addition, the relationship between the model's initial condition and the external predictor of soil moisture provided by the SIM model is better when using spatial rainfall, in particular when using spatial radar data with R2 values increasing from 0.61 to 0.72.

  6. Addressing subjective decision-making inherent in GLUE-based multi-criteria rainfall-runoff model calibration

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafii, Mahyar; Tolson, Bryan; Shawn Matott, L.

    2015-04-01

    GLUE is one of the most commonly used informal methodologies for uncertainty estimation in hydrological modelling. Despite the ease-of-use of GLUE, it involves a number of subjective decisions such as the strategy for identifying the behavioural solutions. This study evaluates the impact of behavioural solution identification strategies in GLUE on the quality of model output uncertainty. Moreover, two new strategies are developed to objectively identify behavioural solutions. The first strategy considers Pareto-based ranking of parameter sets, while the second one is based on ranking the parameter sets based on an aggregated criterion. The proposed strategies, as well as the traditional strategies in the literature, are evaluated with respect to reliability (coverage of observations by the envelope of model outcomes) and sharpness (width of the envelope of model outcomes) in different numerical experiments. These experiments include multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation of three rainfall-runoff models with different number of parameters. To demonstrate the importance of behavioural solution identification strategy more appropriately, GLUE is also compared with two other informal multi-criteria calibration and uncertainty estimation methods (Pareto optimization and DDS-AU). The results show that the model output uncertainty varies with the behavioural solution identification strategy, and furthermore, a robust GLUE implementation would require considering multiple behavioural solution identification strategies and choosing the one that generates the desired balance between sharpness and reliability. The proposed objective strategies prove to be the best options in most of the case studies investigated in this research. Implementing such an approach for a high-dimensional calibration problem enables GLUE to generate robust results in comparison with Pareto optimization and DDS-AU.

  7. Rainfall-Runoff Modelling using Modified NRCS-CN,RS and GIS -A Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    P.Sundara Kumar

    2016-03-01

    Full Text Available Study of rainfall and runoff for any area and modeling it, is one of the important aspects for planning and development of water resources. The development of water resources and its effective management plays a vital role in development of any country more particularly in India, which is an agricultural based economy. Hence it is intended to develop a model of Rainfall and runoff to a river basin and also apply the methodology to Sarada River Basin which has drainage area of 1252.99 Sq.km. The basin is situated in Vishakhapatnam district of Andhra Pradesh, India. The rainfall and runoff data has been collected from the gauging stations of the basin apart from rainfall data from nearby stations. MNRCS-CN method has been adopted to calculate runoff. Various hydrological parameters like soil information, rainfall, land use and land cover (LU/LC were considered to use in MNRCS-CN method. The depth of runoff has been computed for different land use patterns using, IRS-P4- LISS IV data for the study area. Based on the analysis, land use/land cover pattern of Sarada River Basin has been prepared. The land use/land cover patterns were also visually interpreted and digitized using ERDAS IMAGINE software. The raster data was processed in ERDAS and geo-referenced and various maps viz. LU/LC maps, drainage map, contour map, DEM (Digital elevation model have been generated apart from rainfall potential map using GIS tool. The estimated runoff using MNRCS-CN model has been simulated and compared with that of actual runoff. The performance of the model is found to be good for the data considered. The coefficient of determination R2 value for the observed runoff and that of the computed runoff is found to be more than 0.72 for the selected watershed basin

  8. Towards a Bayesian total error analysis of conceptual rainfall-runoff models: Characterising model error using storm-dependent parameters

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuczera, George; Kavetski, Dmitri; Franks, Stewart; Thyer, Mark

    2006-11-01

    SummaryCalibration and prediction in conceptual rainfall-runoff (CRR) modelling is affected by the uncertainty in the observed forcing/response data and the structural error in the model. This study works towards the goal of developing a robust framework for dealing with these sources of error and focuses on model error. The characterisation of model error in CRR modelling has been thwarted by the convenient but indefensible treatment of CRR models as deterministic descriptions of catchment dynamics. This paper argues that the fluxes in CRR models should be treated as stochastic quantities because their estimation involves spatial and temporal averaging. Acceptance that CRR models are intrinsically stochastic paves the way for a more rational characterisation of model error. The hypothesis advanced in this paper is that CRR model error can be characterised by storm-dependent random variation of one or more CRR model parameters. A simple sensitivity analysis is used to identify the parameters most likely to behave stochastically, with variation in these parameters yielding the largest changes in model predictions as measured by the Nash-Sutcliffe criterion. A Bayesian hierarchical model is then formulated to explicitly differentiate between forcing, response and model error. It provides a very general framework for calibration and prediction, as well as for testing hypotheses regarding model structure and data uncertainty. A case study calibrating a six-parameter CRR model to daily data from the Abercrombie catchment (Australia) demonstrates the considerable potential of this approach. Allowing storm-dependent variation in just two model parameters (with one of the parameters characterising model error and the other reflecting input uncertainty) yields a substantially improved model fit raising the Nash-Sutcliffe statistic from 0.74 to 0.94. Of particular significance is the use of posterior diagnostics to test the key assumptions about the data and model errors

  9. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Response to Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rwanda (1990–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Stormwater runoff poses serious environmental problems and public health issues in Rwanda, a tropical country that is increasingly suffering from severe floods, landslides, soil erosion and water pollution. Using the WetSpa Extension model, this study assessed the changes in rainfall runoff depth in Rwanda from 1990 to 2016 in response to precipitation and land use changes. Our results show that Rwanda has experienced a significant conversion of natural forest and grassland to cropland and built-up areas. During the period 1990–2016, 7090.02 km2 (64.5% and 1715.26 km2 (32.1% of forest and grassland covers were lost, respectively, while the cropland and built-up areas increased by 135.3% (8503.75 km2 and 304.3% (355.02 km2, respectively. According to our estimates, the land use change effect resulted in a national mean runoff depth increase of 2.33 mm/year (0.38%. Although precipitation change affected the inter-annual fluctuation of runoff, the long-term trend of runoff was dominated by land use change. The top five districts that experienced the annual runoff depth increase (all >3.8 mm/year are Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Gakenke, and Musanze. Their annual runoff depths increased at a rate of >3.8 mm/year during the past 27 years, due to severe deforestation (ranging from 62% to 85% and cropland expansion (ranging from 123% to 293%. These areas require high priority in runoff control using terracing in croplands and rainwater harvesting systems such as dam/reservoirs, percolation tanks, storage tanks, etc. The wet season runoff was three times higher than the dry season runoff in Rwanda; appropriate rainwater management and reservation could provide valuable irrigation water for the dry season or drought years (late rainfall onsets or early rainfall cessations. It was estimated that a reservation of 30.5% (3.99 km3 of the runoff in the wet season could meet the cropland irrigation water gap during the dry season in 2016.

  10. Contribution of hydrological data to the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of F-specific RNA bacteriophages in river water during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauvel, Blandine; Cauchie, Henry-Michel; Gantzer, Christophe; Ogorzaly, Leslie

    2016-05-01

    Heavy rainfall events were previously reported to bring large amounts of microorganisms in surface water, including viruses. However, little information is available on the origin and transport of viral particles in water during such rain events. In this study, an integrative approach combining microbiological and hydrological measurements was investigated to appreciate the dynamics and origins of F-specific RNA bacteriophage fluxes during two distinct rainfall-runoff events. A high frequency sampling (automatic sampler) was set up to monitor the F-specific RNA bacteriophages fluxes at a fine temporal scale during the whole course of the rainfall-runoff events. A total of 276 rainfall-runoff samples were collected and analysed using both infectivity and RT-qPCR assays. The results highlight an increase of 2.5 log10 and 1.8 log10 of infectious F-specific RNA bacteriophage fluxes in parallel of an increase of the water flow levels for both events. Faecal pollution was characterised as being mainly from anthropic origin with a significant flux of phage particles belonging to the genogroup II. At the temporal scale, two successive distinct waves of phage pollution were established and identified through the hydrological measurements. The first arrival of phages in the water column was likely to be linked to the resuspension of riverbed sediments that was responsible for a high input of genogroup II. Surface runoff contributed further to the second input of phages, and more particularly of genogroup I. In addition, an important contribution of infectious phage particles has been highlighted. These findings imply the existence of a close relationship between the risk for human health and the viral contamination of flood water.

  11. Development of a distributed rainfall-runoff model based on a TIN-based topographic modeling; Ryuiki chikei no sankakkei yosomo hyogen ni motozuku bunpugata kou ryushutsu model no kaihatsu

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Tachikawa, Y.; Shiba, M. [Kyoto Univ., Kyoto (Japan). Disaster Prevention Research Inst.; Takasao, T. [Kyoto University, Kyoto (Japan); Haraguchi, A. [Fukuoka City Office, Fukuoka (Japan)

    1997-05-15

    Based on the BGIS (basin geomorphic information system), a distributed rainfall-runoff simulation model has been constructed. In this study, a tertiary spline interpolation function was constructed using data of slope gradient and slope width calculated from a TIN-based model without making patterns of variation of slope gradient and slope width. Thus, a slope element model with continuously changing slope gradient and slope width was constructed. Rain water flow can be traced by the kinematic wave equations using discharge and cross-sectional flow area equations which can express the intermediate flow and surface flow, systematically. The rain water flow which is essential for the runoff phenomena was reproduced exactly following the topography of the area. This system was applied to the Shirasaka Basin in Aichi Prefecture. The simulation results were greatly affected by the expression of slope shape. When the basin area is more than 0.1 km{sup 2}, characteristics of the whole basin slope shape are more significant rather than those of individual slopes. 17 refs., 10 figs., 2 tabs.

  12. Conceptual rainfall-runoff model with limited and low quality data in the Pirai River basin, Bolivia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gonzalez-Sanchez, Alvaro; Villazon, Mauricio; Willems, Patrick

    2010-05-01

    . In order to avoid this, it has been convenient to apply directly the Thornthwaite method with a local correction factor of 1.25. Afterwards, a monthly correction factor has been introduced to enhance the prediction power of the simplified methods. However this correction factor is not constant throughout the year and whenever possible (at least Tmax and Tmin) the FAO-56 equation should be used. Regarding the Rating curve, for Colorado gauging station 81 rating curves have identified whereas for Bermejo 26, for the period 01/01/1986 to 12/31/1998. In general the statistics are better for Bermejo than for the Colorado gauging station. Similar behavior is observed in the parameters of the rating curve, where the variability is wider in the Colorado gauging station. Afterwards, the NAM model using Mike 11 has been calibrated for the gauged catchments of the Pirai River Basin (i.e.: Colorado, Bermejo, Espejos and Angostura) and finally, based on this completely lumped approach of the hydrological cycle the MIKE BASIN rainfall runoff has been calibrated and validated for the study area. Statistically, for the calibration period the model has shown NSE values around 0.55 whereas for the validation period this parameter was only 0.40 on the average. Since the model is basically for flood prediction, special attention to high flows has been addressed. The models present more or less the same behavior at each of the four gauging station, with a general underestimation, a relatively good agreement in the global water balance, good agreement for high flows and an underestimation for low flows. In general, it can be concluded that the parameters obtained from the lumped approach in the NAM model can be used as a base line for the hydrological model in the GIS environment.

  13. Rainfall-runoff modelling using different estimators of precipitation data in the Carpathian mountain catchments (South Poland)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kasina, Michal; Ziemski, Michal; Niedbala, Jerzy; Malota, Agnieszka

    2013-04-01

    Precipitation observations are an essential element of flood forecasting systems. Rain gauges, radars, satellite sensors and forecasts from high resolution numerical weather prediction models are a part of precipitation monitoring networks. These networks collect rainfall data that are further provided to hydrological models to produce forecasts. The main goal of this work is to assess the usage of different precipitation data sources in rainfall-runoff modelling with reference to Flash Flood Early Warning System. STUDY AREA Research was carried out in the upper parts of the Sola and Raba river catchments. Both of the rivers begin their course in the southern part of the Western Beskids (Outer Eastern Carpathians; southern Poland). For the purpose of this study, both rivers are taken to comprise the catchments upstream of the gauging stations at Zywiec (Sola) and Stroza (Raba). The upper Sola river catchment encompasses an area of 785 sq. km with an altitude ranging from 342 to 1236 m above sea level, while the Raba river catchment occupies an area of 644 sq. km with an altitude ranging from 300 to 1266 m above sea level. The catchments are underlain mainly by flysch sediments. The average annual amount of precipitation for the Sola River catchment is between 750 and 1300 mm and for the Raba river catchment is in the range of 800-1000 mm. METHODS AND RESULTS This work assesses the sensitivity of a lumped hydrological model DHI's Nedbør-Afrstrømnings-Model (NAM) to different sources of rainfall estimates: rain gauges, radar and satellite as well as predicted precipitation amount from high resolution numerical weather prediction models (e.g. ALADIN). The main steps of validation procedure are: i) comparison of rain gauge data with other precipitation data sources, ii) calibration of the hydrological model (using historical, long time series of rain gauge data treated as "ground truth"), iii) validation using different precipitation data sources as an input, iii

  14. Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2015-08-24

    Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

  15. Cascading model uncertainty from medium range weather forecasts (10 days through a rainfall-runoff model to flood inundation predictions within the European Flood Forecasting System (EFFS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Pappenberger

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available The political pressure on the scientific community to provide medium to long term flood forecasts has increased in the light of recent flooding events in Europe. Such demands can be met by a system consisting of three different model components (weather forecast, rainfall-runoff forecast and flood inundation forecast which are all liable to considerable uncertainty in the input, output and model parameters. Thus, an understanding of cascaded uncertainties is a necessary requirement to provide robust predictions. In this paper, 10-day ahead rainfall forecasts, consisting of one deterministic, one control and 50 ensemble forecasts, are fed into a rainfall-runoff model (LisFlood for which parameter uncertainty is represented by six different parameter sets identified through a Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE analysis and functional hydrograph classification. The runoff of these 52 * 6 realisations form the input to a flood inundation model (LisFlood-FP which acknowledges uncertainty by utilising ten different sets of roughness coefficients identified using the same GLUE methodology. Likelihood measures for each parameter set computed on historical data are used to give uncertain predictions of flow hydrographs as well as spatial inundation extent. This analysis demonstrates that a full uncertainty analysis of such an integrated system is limited mainly by computer power as well as by how well the rainfall predictions represent potential future conditions. However, these restrictions may be overcome or lessened in the future and this paper establishes a computationally feasible methodological approach to the uncertainty cascade problem.

  16. Effects of land-use pattern change on rainfall-runoff and runoff-sediment relations:a case study in Zichang watershed of the Loess Plateau of China

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    ZHAO Wen-wu; FU Bo-jie; CHEN Li-ding; ZHANG Qiu-ju; ZHANG Yin-hui

    2004-01-01

    The purpose of this article is to identify the effect of land-use pattern on rainfall-runoff and runoff-sediment relations in Zichang watershed of the Loess Plateau. From 1986 to 1997, many farmlands changed into grassland or woodland, especially the farmland in steep slope positions or far away from the river. The change of land-use pattern altered the rainfall-runoff and runoff-sediment relationships, and led to higher slope of trend curves(STCs) of annual rainfall-runoff mass curve and runoff-sediment mass curve in 1990s than that in 1980s. It is implied that more soil and water loss yielded in 1990s. In order to reduce soil loss, more attentions should be paid to land-use pattern and some grass or other herbaceous filter strips should be built along rivers.

  17. Supply Chain Simulation : A Survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of simulation in supply chain management.It reviews four types of simulation, namely spreadsheet simulation, system dynamics, discreteevent simulation, and business games.Which simulation type should be applied, depends on the type of managerial question to be answered b

  18. Study on Pollution Characterization of Rainfall Runoff in Hefei Campus Area%合肥市校园区降雨径流污染特征研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    谢继锋; 徐挺; 胡志新; 蔡婷; 朱朝云

    2011-01-01

    [目的]研究合肥市校园区屋面和路面两类不同下垫面降雨径流污染特征.[方法]以SS、CODCr、TN和TP作为主要水质指标进行比较,分析校园内屋面和路面2010年4场降雨径流污染物输出规律和降雨径流水质特征及其差异.[结果]合肥市校园区降雨径流污染负荷水平较高,降雨径流主要污染物浓度一般在降雨初期较高,后期随着降雨历时的延长浓度下降,并趋于稳定;不同类型下垫面对降雨径流水质的影响差异较大,受人为活动直接干扰的路面降雨径流中SS和TP平均浓度远高于屋面,COD和TN平均浓度略高于屋面;舍肥地区大气湿沉降对降雨径流中TN的贡献很大.[结论]该研究可为合理开展城市径流面源污染控制和有效利用城区雨水资源提供科学依据.%[ Objective ] The aim was to study the pollution characterization of rainfall runoff of two different underlying surface, roof runoff and road runoff, in Hefei campus area. [ Method] Choosing SS, CODcr, TN and TP as the main analyzing items of water quality, the distinction law and characterization of contamination from roof runoff and road runoff collected in 4 rainfall events in urban campus area of Hefei in 2010 were analyzed, and their difference was compared. [Result] The pollutioa loading of rainfall runoff in Hefei campus area was high, and the main contamination concentration was high at the initial stage commonly, while at the later stage the concentration was decreased with prolonging of the rainfall time and trended stable. The effects of different underlying surface on water characterization of rainfall runoff had great differences. Thereinto, the SS and TP average concentration of road runoff directly effected by human action were significantly higher than that of roof rainfall, while CODcr and TN average concentration of road runoff were a little higher than that of roof rainfall. Atmospheric wet deposition in Hefei contributed a lot to

  19. Advances in rainfall-runoff estimation using the NRCS-CN model in a changing climate in semiarid zones in both the northern and southern hemispheres

    Science.gov (United States)

    Durán-Barroso, Pablo; João Simas Guerreiro, Maria; De Andrade, Eunice Maia; González, Javier

    2016-04-01

    Extreme events runoff is one of the most important variables in water resources management, but its quantification in semiarid watersheds is not easy, especially because of their large retention capacity. In the worldwide used NRCS Curve Number model (CN), retention capacity is conditioned by the initial abstraction parameter, for which this manuscript questions its assessment procedure. We propose a more accurate procedure to compute the initial abstractions based on previous cumulative dry days (CDD). We also analyze the combined effect of initial abstractions and climatic characteristics by analyzing CN in a dry (Walnut Gulch, US) and wet (Ceará, Brazil) semiarid environment. With this new methodology and the evolution of rainfall volumes and CDD analysis, it is possible to suggest consequences of climate change on floods forecast of extreme rainfall-runoff events in a semiarid environment.

  20. Application of The Rainfall-runoff Model Topkapi For The Entire Basin of The Po River As Part of The European Project Effs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todini, E.; Bartholmes, J.

    The project EFFS (European Flood Forecasting System) aims at developing a flood forecasting system for the major river basins all over Europe. To extend the forecast- ing and thus the warning time in a significant way (up to 10 days) meteorological forecasting data from the ECMWF will be used as input to hydrological models. For this purpose it is fundamental to have a reliable rainfall-runoff model. For the river Po basin we chose the TOPKAPI model (Ciarapica, Todini 1998). TOPKAPI is a physi- cally based rainfall-runoff model that maintains its physical significance passing from hillslope to large basin scale. The aim of the distributed version is to reproduce the spatial variability and to lead to a better understanding of scaling effects on meteo- rological data used as well as of physical phenomena and parameters. By now the TOPKAPI model has been applied successfully to basins of smaller and medium size (up to 8000 km2). The present work also proves that TOPKAPI is a valuable flood forecasting tool for larger basins such as the Po river. An advantage of the TOPKAPI model is its physical basis. It doesn't need a "real" calibration in the common sense of the expression. The calibration work that has to be done is due to the unavoidable averaging and approximation in the input data representing various phenomena. This reduces the calibration work as well as the length of data required. The model was implemented on the Po river at spatial steps of 1km and time steps of 1 hour using available data during the year 1994. After the calibration phase, mesoscale forecasts (from ECMWF) as well as forecasts of LAM models (DWD,DMI) will be used as input to the Po river models and their behaviour will be studied as a function of the prediction quality and of the coarseness of the spatial discretisation.

  1. Choice of rainfall inputs for event-based rainfall-runoff modeling in a catchment with multiple rainfall stations using data-driven techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, Tak Kwin; Talei, Amin; Alaghmand, Sina; Ooi, Melanie Po-Leen

    2017-02-01

    Input selection for data-driven rainfall-runoff models is an important task as these models find the relationship between rainfall and runoff by direct mapping of inputs to output. In this study, two different input selection methods were used: cross-correlation analysis (CCA), and a combination of mutual information and cross-correlation analyses (MICCA). Selected inputs were used to develop adaptive network-based fuzzy inference system (ANFIS) in Sungai Kayu Ara basin, Selangor, Malaysia. The study catchment has 10 rainfall stations and one discharge station located at the outlet of the catchment. A total of 24 rainfall-runoff events (10-min interval) from 1996 to 2004 were selected from which 18 events were used for training and the remaining 6 were reserved for validating (testing) the models. The results of ANFIS models then were compared against the ones obtained by conceptual model HEC-HMS. The CCA and MICCA methods selected the rainfall inputs only from 2 (stations 1 and 5) and 3 (stations 1, 3, and 5) rainfall stations, respectively. ANFIS model developed based on MICCA inputs (ANFIS-MICCA) performed slightly better than the one developed based on CCA inputs (ANFIS-CCA). ANFIS-CCA and ANFIS-MICCA were able to perform comparably to HEC-HMS model where rainfall data of all 10 stations had been used; however, in peak estimation, ANFIS-MICCA was the best model. The sensitivity analysis on HEC-HMS was conducted by recalibrating the model by using the same selected rainfall stations for ANFIS. It was concluded that HEC-HMS model performance deteriorates if the number of rainfall stations reduces. In general, ANFIS was found to be a reliable alternative for HEC-HMS in cases whereby not all rainfall stations are functioning. This study showed that the selected stations have received the highest total rain and rainfall intensity (stations 3 and 5). Moreover, the contributing rainfall stations selected by CCA and MICCA were found to be located near the outlet of

  2. Role of climate forecasts and initial land-surface conditions in developing operational streamflow and soil moisture forecasts in a rainfall-runoff regime: skill assessment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    T. Sinha

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Skillful seasonal streamflow forecasts obtained from climate and land surface conditions could significantly improve water and energy management. Since climate forecasts are updated on monthly basis, we evaluate the potential in developing operational monthly streamflow forecasts on a continuous basis throughout the year. Further, basins in the rainfall-runoff regime critically depend on the forecasted precipitation in the upcoming months as opposed to snowmelt regimes where initial hydrological conditions (IHC play a critical role. The goal of this study is to quantify the role of monthly updated precipitation forecasts and IHC in forecasting 6-month lead monthly streamflow for a rainfall-runoff mechanism dominated basin – Apalachicola River at Chattahoochee, FL. The Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC land surface model is implemented with two forcings: (a monthly updated precipitation forecasts from ECHAM4.5 Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM forced with sea surface temperature forecasts and (b daily climatological ensemble. The difference in skill between the above two quantifies the improvements that could be attainable using the AGCM forecasts. Monthly retrospective streamflow forecasts are developed from 1981 to 2010 and streamflow forecasts estimated from the VIC model are also compared with those predicted by using the principal component regression (PCR model. Mean square error (MSE in predicting monthly streamflow using the above VIC model are compared with the MSE of streamflow climatology under ENSO conditions as well as under normal years. Results indicate that VIC forecasts, at 1–2 month lead time, obtained using ECHAM4.5 are significantly better than VIC forecasts obtained using climatological ensemble over all the seasons except forecasts issued in fall and the PCR models perform better during the fall months. Over longer lead times (3–6 months, VIC forecasts derived using ECHAM4.5 forcings alone performed better

  3. Comparison of parameters influencing the behavior of concentration of nitrates and phosphates during different extreme rainfall-runoff events in small watersheds

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Moravcová

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available The behavior of solute concentrations during storm events is completely different from their behaviour under normal conditions, and very often results in hysteresis. This study aim is to explore the relationship between the biogeochemical and hydrological parameters describing natural conditions and the reciprocal interactions between changes in concentration of selected indicators of water quality in water and the discharge dynamics during different types of extreme rainfall-runoff events in the Jenínský stream and the Kopaninský stream catchment (Czech Republic. The relationship between concentrations and runoffs is explained by concentration-discharge hysteretic loops. As the statistical method used for cross analyzing the impact of the parameters there was chosen the RDA analysis. The relationships between the particular parameters were examined separately by conditions of spring snow melt and summer storm events. The results than confirmed the very strong relationship between parameters describing water quality and percentage of stable parts of the catchment and also of infiltration vulnerable sites.

  4. Assessing groundwater recharge in an Andean closed basin using isotopic characterization and a rainfall-runoff model: Salar del Huasco basin, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uribe, Javier; Muñoz, José F.; Gironás, Jorge; Oyarzún, Ricardo; Aguirre, Evelyn; Aravena, Ramón

    2015-11-01

    Closed basins are catchments whose drainage networks converge to lakes, salt flats or alluvial plains. Salt flats in the closed basins in arid northern Chile are extremely important ecological niches. The Salar del Huasco, one of these salt flats located in the high plateau (Altiplano), is a Ramsar site located in a national park and is composed of a wetland ecosystem rich in biodiversity. The proper management of the groundwater, which is essential for the wetland function, requires accurate estimates of recharge in the Salar del Huasco basin. This study quantifies the spatio-temporal distribution of the recharge, through combined use of isotopic characterization of the different components of the water cycle and a rainfall-runoff model. The use of both methodologies aids the understanding of hydrological behavior of the basin and enabled estimation of a long-term average recharge of 22 mm/yr (i.e., 15 % of the annual rainfall). Recharge has a high spatial variability, controlled by the geological and hydrometeorological characteristics of the basin, and a high interannual variability, with values ranging from 18 to 26 mm/yr. The isotopic approach allowed not only the definition of the conceptual model used in the hydrological model, but also eliminated the possibility of a hydrogeological connection between the aquifer of the Salar del Huasco basin and the aquifer that feeds the springs of the nearby town of Pica. This potential connection has been an issue of great interest to agriculture and tourism activities in the region.

  5. Using satellite-based evapotranspiration estimates to improve the structure of a simple conceptual rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roy, Tirthankar; Gupta, Hoshin V.; Serrat-Capdevila, Aleix; Valdes, Juan B.

    2017-02-01

    Daily, quasi-global (50° N-S and 180° W-E), satellite-based estimates of actual evapotranspiration at 0.25° spatial resolution have recently become available, generated by the Global Land Evaporation Amsterdam Model (GLEAM). We investigate the use of these data to improve the performance of a simple lumped catchment-scale hydrologic model driven by satellite-based precipitation estimates to generate streamflow simulations for a poorly gauged basin in Africa. In one approach, we use GLEAM to constrain the evapotranspiration estimates generated by the model, thereby modifying daily water balance and improving model performance. In an alternative approach, we instead change the structure of the model to improve its ability to simulate actual evapotranspiration (as estimated by GLEAM). Finally, we test whether the GLEAM product is able to further improve the performance of the structurally modified model. Results indicate that while both approaches can provide improved simulations of streamflow, the second approach also improves the simulation of actual evapotranspiration significantly, which substantiates the importance of making diagnostic structural improvements to hydrologic models whenever possible.

  6. Retrofitting impervious urban infrastructure with green technology for rainfall-runoff restoration, indirect reuse and pollution load reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansalone, John; Raje, Saurabh; Kertesz, Ruben; Maccarone, Kerrilynn; Seltzer, Karl; Siminari, Michele; Simms, Peter; Wood, Brandon

    2013-12-01

    The built environs alter hydrology and water resource chemistry. Florida is subject to nutrient criteria and is promulgating "no-net-load-increase" criteria for runoff and constituents (nutrients and particulate matter, PM). With such criteria, green infrastructure, hydrologic restoration, indirect reuse and source control are potential design solutions. The study simulates runoff and constituent load control through urban source area re-design to provide long-term "no-net-load-increases". A long-term continuous simulation of pre- and post-development response for an existing surface parking facility is quantified. Retrofits include a biofiltration area reactor (BAR) for hydrologic and denitrification control. A linear infiltration reactor (LIR) of cementitious permeable pavement (CPP) provides infiltration, adsorption and filtration. Pavement cleaning provided source control. Simulation of climate and source area data indicates re-design achieves "no-net-load-increases" at lower costs compared to standard construction. The retrofit system yields lower cost per nutrient load treated compared to Best Management Practices (BMPs).

  7. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions.

  8. A consideration of rainfall, runoff and losses at Plynlimon in the context of long term hydrological variability in the UK and maritime Western Europe

    Science.gov (United States)

    Green, S.; Marsh, T. J.

    Important questions concerning the resilience of current water management strategies have been raised by the recent volatility of climatic conditions across large parts of western Europe. The last decade, overall, has been exceptionally warm and there have been very large spatial and temporal variations in rainfall, river flows and aquifer recharge rates. Examination of historical rainfall and runoff records for parts of maritime western Europe confirms that there is no close modern parallel to the conditions experienced recently. Some-but far from complete-consistency with a number of favoured climate change scenarios may be recognised. Analyses of recent trends in lengthy rainfall and runoff series for the UK demonstrate significant regional differences and provide conflicting signals especially in relation to trends in catchment losses. Difficulties in reconciling the results from different areas may reflect both real hydroclimatological differences between catchments and variations in the precision of hydrometric time series-uncertainties in the assessment of areal precipitation in upland areas in particular. The dense monitoring networks at Plynlimon together with a rigorous data quality control programme underpins the value of the hydrometric datasets as important benchmarks against which to assess the significance of the very unusual patterns of rainfall and runoff which have characterised the recent past. This paper places the rainfall, runoff and losses data for Plynlimon in the perspective provided by a number of long hydrometric records for maritime western Europe. The representativeness of the Plynlimon base period is considered with particular reference to both the historical stability which typifies the great majority of European hydrometric time series and the recent extension in the recorded range of accumulated rainfall and runoff totals which has been identified in some regions (e.g. western Scotland and Norway). Particular attention is directed

  9. A consideration of rainfall, runoff and losses at Plynlimon in the context of long term hydrological variability in the UK and maritime Western Europe

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Green

    1997-01-01

    Full Text Available Important questions concerning the resilience of current water management strategies have been raised by the recent volatility of climatic conditions across large parts of western Europe. The last decade, overall, has been exceptionally warm and there have been very large spatial and temporal variations in rainfall, river flows and aquifer recharge rates. Examination of historical rainfall and runoff records for parts of maritime western Europe confirms that there is no close modern parallel to the conditions experienced recently. Some-but far from complete-consistency with a number of favoured climate change scenarios may be recognised. Analyses of recent trends in lengthy rainfall and runoff series for the UK demonstrate significant regional differences and provide conflicting signals especially in relation to trends in catchment losses. Difficulties in reconciling the results from different areas may reflect both real hydroclimatological differences between catchments and variations in the precision of hydrometric time series-uncertainties in the assessment of areal precipitation in upland areas in particular. The dense monitoring networks at Plynlimon together with a rigorous data quality control programme underpins the value of the hydrometric datasets as important benchmarks against which to assess the significance of the very unusual patterns of rainfall and runoff which have characterised the recent past. This paper places the rainfall, runoff and losses data for Plynlimon in the perspective provided by a number of long hydrometric records for maritime western Europe. The representativeness of the Plynlimon base period is considered with particular reference to both the historical stability which typifies the great majority of European hydrometric time series and the recent extension in the recorded range of accumulated rainfall and runoff totals which has been identified in some regions (e.g. western Scotland and Norway. Particular

  10. Definition and sensitivity of the conceptual MORDOR rainfall-runoff model parameters using different multi-criteria calibration strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garavaglia, F.; Seyve, E.; Gottardi, F.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.; Garçon, R.

    2014-12-01

    MORDOR is a conceptual hydrological model extensively used in Électricité de France (EDF, French electric utility company) operational applications: (i) hydrological forecasting, (ii) flood risk assessment, (iii) water balance and (iv) climate change studies. MORDOR is a lumped, reservoir, elevation based model with hourly or daily areal rainfall and air temperature as the driving input data. The principal hydrological processes represented are evapotranspiration, direct and indirect runoff, ground water, snow accumulation and melt and routing. The model has been intensively used at EDF for more than 20 years, in particular for modeling French mountainous watersheds. In the matter of parameters calibration we propose and test alternative multi-criteria techniques based on two specific approaches: automatic calibration using single-objective functions and a priori parameter calibration founded on hydrological watershed features. The automatic calibration approach uses single-objective functions, based on Kling-Gupta efficiency, to quantify the good agreement between the simulated and observed runoff focusing on four different runoff samples: (i) time-series sample, (I) annual hydrological regime, (iii) monthly cumulative distribution functions and (iv) recession sequences.The primary purpose of this study is to analyze the definition and sensitivity of MORDOR parameters testing different calibration techniques in order to: (i) simplify the model structure, (ii) increase the calibration-validation performance of the model and (iii) reduce the equifinality problem of calibration process. We propose an alternative calibration strategy that reaches these goals. The analysis is illustrated by calibrating MORDOR model to daily data for 50 watersheds located in French mountainous regions.

  11. Evaluating the effectiveness of management practices on hydrology and water quality at watershed scale with a rainfall-runoff model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-04-01

    The adverse influence of urban development on hydrology and water quality can be reduced by applying best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices. This study applied green roof, rain barrel/cistern, bioretention system, porous pavement, permeable patio, grass strip, grassed swale, wetland channel, retention pond, detention basin, and wetland basin, on Crooked Creek watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for annual runoff volume. A framework for simulating BMPs and LID practices at watershed scales was created, and the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on water quantity and water quality were evaluated with the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model for 16 scenarios. The various levels and combinations of BMPs/LID practices reduced runoff volume by 0 to 26.47%, Total Nitrogen (TN) by 0.30 to 34.20%, Total Phosphorus (TP) by 0.27 to 47.41%, Total Suspended Solids (TSS) by 0.33 to 53.59%, Lead (Pb) by 0.30 to 60.98%, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) by 0 to 26.70%, and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) by 0 to 27.52%. The implementation of grass strips in 25% of the watershed where this practice could be applied was the most cost-efficient scenario, with cost per unit reduction of $1m3/yr for runoff, while cost for reductions of two pollutants of concern was $445 kg/yr for Total Nitrogen (TN) and $4871 kg/yr for Total Phosphorous (TP). The scenario with very high levels of BMP and LID practice adoption (scenario 15) reduced runoff volume and pollutant loads from 26.47% to 60.98%, and provided the greatest reduction in runoff volume and pollutant loads among all scenarios. However, this scenario was not as cost-efficient as most other scenarios. The L-THIA-LID 2.1 model is a valid tool that can be applied to various locations to help identify cost effective BMP/LID practice plans at watershed scales.

  12. Predictions of rainfall-runoff response and soil moisture dynamics in a microscale catchment using the CREW model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, H.; Zehe, E.; Sivapalan, M.

    2007-02-01

    .e., water retention curve) and hydraulic conductivity-saturation relationships for the unsaturated zone. Closure relations for concentrated overland flow and saturated overland flow were derived using both theoretical arguments and simpler process models. In addition to these, to complete the specification of the REW scale balance equations, a relationship for the saturated area fraction as a function of saturated zone depth was derived for an assumed topography on the basis of TOPMODEL assumptions. These relationships were used to complete the specification of all of the REW-scale governing equations (mass and momentum balance equations, closure and geometric relations) for the Weiherbach catchment, which are then employed for constructing a numerical watershed model, named the Cooperative Community Catchment model based on the Representative Elementary Watershed approach (CREW). CREW is then used to carry out sensitivity analyses with respect to various combinations of climate, soil, vegetation and topographies, in order to test the reasonableness of the derived closure relations in the context of the complete catchment response, including interacting processes. These sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the adopted closure relations do indeed produce mostly reasonable results, and can therefore be a good basis for more careful and rigorous search for appropriate closure relations in the future. Three tests are designed to assess CREW as a large scale model for Weiherbach catchment. The first test compares CREW with distributed model CATFLOW by looking at predicted soil moisture dynamics for artificially designed initial and boundary conditions. The second test is designed to see the applicabilities of the parameter values extracted from the upscaling procedures in terms of their ability to reproduce observed hydrographs within the CREW modeling framework. The final test compares simulated soil moisture time series predicted by CREW with observed ones as a way of

  13. Predictions of rainfall-runoff response and soil moisture dynamics in a microscale catchment using the CREW model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lee

    2007-01-01

    pressure-saturation (i.e., water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity-saturation relationships for the unsaturated zone. Closure relations for concentrated overland flow and saturated overland flow were derived using both theoretical arguments and simpler process models. In addition to these, to complete the specification of the REW scale balance equations, a relationship for the saturated area fraction as a function of saturated zone depth was derived for an assumed topography on the basis of TOPMODEL assumptions. These relationships were used to complete the specification of all of the REW-scale governing equations (mass and momentum balance equations, closure and geometric relations for the Weiherbach catchment, which are then employed for constructing a numerical watershed model, named the Cooperative Community Catchment model based on the Representative Elementary Watershed approach (CREW. CREW is then used to carry out sensitivity analyses with respect to various combinations of climate, soil, vegetation and topographies, in order to test the reasonableness of the derived closure relations in the context of the complete catchment response, including interacting processes. These sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the adopted closure relations do indeed produce mostly reasonable results, and can therefore be a good basis for more careful and rigorous search for appropriate closure relations in the future. Three tests are designed to assess CREW as a large scale model for Weiherbach catchment. The first test compares CREW with distributed model CATFLOW by looking at predicted soil moisture dynamics for artificially designed initial and boundary conditions. The second test is designed to see the applicabilities of the parameter values extracted from the upscaling procedures in terms of their ability to reproduce observed hydrographs within the CREW modeling framework. The final test compares simulated soil moisture time series predicted by CREW with observed

  14. Predictions of rainfall-runoff response and soil moisture dynamics in a microscale catchment using the CREW model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    H. Lee

    2006-07-01

    scale pressure-saturation (i.e., water retention curve and hydraulic conductivity-saturation relationships for the unsaturated zone. Closure relations for concentrated overland flow and saturated overland flow were derived using both theoretical arguments and simpler process models. In addition to these, to complete the specification of the REW scale balance equations, a relationship for the saturated area fraction as a function of saturated zone depth was derived for an assumed topography on the basis of TOPMODEL assumptions. These relationships were used to complete the specification of all of the REW-scale governing equations (mass and momentum balance equations, closure and geometric relations for the Weiherbach catchment, which are then employed for constructing a numerical watershed model, named the Cooperative Community Catchment model based on the Representative Elementary Watershed approach (CREW. CREW is then used to carry out sensitivity analyses with respect to various combinations of climate, soil, vegetation and topographies, in order to test the reasonableness of the derived closure relations in the context of the complete catchment response, including interacting processes. These sensitivity analyses demonstrated that the adopted closure relations do indeed produce mostly reasonable results, and can therefore be a good basis for more careful and rigorous search for appropriate closure relations in the future. Three tests are designed to assess CREW as a large scale model for Weiherbach catchment. The first test compares CREW with distributed model CATFLOW by looking at predicted soil moisture dynamics for artificially designed initial and boundary conditions. The second test is designed to see the applicabilities of the parameter values extracted from the upscaling procedures in terms of their ability to reproduce observed hydrographs within the CREW modeling framework. The final test compares simulated soil

  15. Automatic Calibration of a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model, Using the Degree-Day Formulation for Snow Melting, Within DMIP2 Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Frances, F.; Orozco, I.

    2010-12-01

    This work presents the assessment of the TETIS distributed hydrological model in mountain basins of the American and Carson rivers in Sierra Nevada (USA) at hourly time discretization, as part of the DMIP2 Project. In TETIS each cell of the spatial grid conceptualizes the water cycle using six tanks connected among them. The relationship between tanks depends on the case, although at the end in most situations, simple linear reservoirs and flow thresholds schemes are used with exceptional results (Vélez et al., 1999; Francés et al., 2002). In particular, within the snow tank, snow melting is based in this work on the simple degree-day method with spatial constant parameters. The TETIS model includes an automatic calibration module, based on the SCE-UA algorithm (Duan et al., 1992; Duan et al., 1994) and the model effective parameters are organized following a split structure, as presented by Francés and Benito (1995) and Francés et al. (2007). In this way, the calibration involves in TETIS up to 9 correction factors (CFs), which correct globally the different parameter maps instead of each parameter cell value, thus reducing drastically the number of variables to be calibrated. This strategy allows for a fast and agile modification in different hydrological processes preserving the spatial structure of each parameter map. With the snowmelt submodel, automatic model calibration was carried out in three steps, separating the calibration of rainfall-runoff and snowmelt parameters. In the first step, the automatic calibration of the CFs during the period 05/20/1990 to 07/31/1990 in the American River (without snow influence), gave a Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency (NSE) index of 0.92. The calibration of the three degree-day parameters was done using all the SNOTEL stations in the American and Carson rivers. Finally, using previous calibrations as initial values, the complete calibration done in the Carson River for the period 10/01/1992 to 07/31/1993 gave a NSE index of

  16. Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) for estimating water availability during water scarcity conditions: rainfall-runoff modelling of the ungauged diversion inflows to the Ridracoli water supply reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Elena

    2013-04-01

    The Ridracoli reservoir is the main drinking water supply reservoir serving the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy. Such water supply system has a crucial role in an area where the different characteristics of the communities to be served, their size, the mass tourism and the presence of food industries highlight strong differences in drinking water needs. Its operation allows high quality drinking water supply to a million resident customers, plus a few millions of tourists during the summer of people and it reduces the need for water pumping from underground sources, and this is particularly important since the coastal area is subject also to subsidence and saline ingression into aquifers. The system experienced water shortage conditions thrice in the last decade, in 2002, in 2007 and in autumn-winter 2011-2012, when the reservoir water storage fell below the attention and the pre-emergency thresholds, thus prompting the implementation of a set of mitigation measures, including limitations to the population's water consumption. The reservoir receives water not only from the headwater catchment, closed at the dam, but also from four diversion watersheds, linked to the reservoir through an underground water channel. Such withdrawals are currently undersized, abstracting only a part of the streamflow exceeding the established minimum flows, due to the design of the water intake structures; it is therefore crucial understanding how the reservoir water availability might be increased through a fuller exploitation of the existing diversion catchment area. Since one of the four diversion catchment is currently ungauged (at least at the fine temporal scale needed for keeping into account the minimum flow requirements downstream of the intakes), the study first presents the set up and parameterisation of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at hourly time-step for the three gauged diversion watersheds and for the headwater catchment: a regional parameterisation

  17. Monitoring and Analysis on Evolution Process of Rainfall Runoff Water Quality in Urban Area%城市雨水径流水质演变过程监测与分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    董雯; 李怀恩; 李家科

    2013-01-01

    为了探讨降雨从落地前至居住小区出口径流的水质演变规律和污染特性,于2011年7~10月进行了6场雨水径流水质演变过程的监测与分析,同时,初步对比了草带对屋面径流的净化效果.结果表明:①城市降雨从“落地前雨水-屋面径流-路面径流-小区出口径流”,水质变化规律明显,落地前雨水水质最好,屋面径流和小区出口径流水质较差,路面径流水质最差;②雨水水质从落地前到小区出口的演变过程中,除可溶性TP平均浓度未超出地表水环境质量Ⅳ类标准外,COD、NH4+-N、TN平均浓度均超出地表水环境质量V类标准;③前期晴天时间短的降雨径流污染物平均浓度明显低于前期晴天时间长的降雨,并且同一场降雨过程,降雨结束时径流水质明显好于初期;④草带对降雨径流中污染物的浓度削减作用明显,约1.0 m宽的草带对屋面径流污染物COD和氮的削减率基本都在30%左右.%In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011 , and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed; ①the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; ②the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; ③the runoff water quality of the short

  18. Medical Simulation Practices 2010 Survey Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrindle, Jeffrey J.

    2011-01-01

    Medical Simulation Centers are an essential component of our learning infrastructure to prepare doctors and nurses for their careers. Unlike the military and aerospace simulation industry, very little has been published regarding the best practices currently in use within medical simulation centers. This survey attempts to provide insight into the current simulation practices at medical schools, hospitals, university nursing programs and community college nursing programs. Students within the MBA program at Saint Joseph's University conducted a survey of medical simulation practices during the summer 2010 semester. A total of 115 institutions responded to the survey. The survey resus discuss overall effectiveness of current simulation centers as well as the tools and techniques used to conduct the simulation activity

  19. Estimating Flood Quantiles on the Basis of Multi-Event Rainfall Simulation – Case Study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jarosińska Elżbieta

    2015-12-01

    Full Text Available This paper presents an approach to estimating the probability distribution of annual discharges Q based on rainfall-runoff modelling using multiple rainfall events. The approach is based on the prior knowledge about the probability distribution of annual maximum daily totals of rainfall P in a natural catchment, random disaggregation of the totals into hourly values, and rainfall-runoff modelling. The presented Multi-Event Simulation of Extreme Flood method (MESEF combines design event method based on single-rainfall event modelling, and continuous simulation method used for estimating the maximum discharges of a given exceedance probability using rainfall-runoff models. In the paper, the flood quantiles were estimated using the MESEF method, and then compared to the flood quantiles estimated using classical statistical method based on observed data.

  20. Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff in a Small Watershed in Taihang Mountainous Area%太行山区典型小流域降雨产流特征分析

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    胡珊珊; 杨丽虎; 张广英; 王胜宝

    2015-01-01

    以太行山区崇陵小流域为研究区域,采用1959—1967年、1985—2008年历史实测降雨产流资料,分析了研究区降雨特征及产流过程响应特征,并对比了不同时期降雨径流变化. 结果表明:①研究区6—9月降雨以小雨为主,产流主要由暴雨和大雨控制;②产流机制以超渗产流为主,在前期湿润条件下,长历时低强度降雨也会造成蓄满产流;③与1959—1967年相比,1985—2008年的暴雨、大雨、中雨雨日分别减少26.1%、25.0%和12.4%,年径流系数减小80%,且降雨径流相关性减弱,说明人类活动成为影响径流量的重要因素.%Using Chongling small watershed in Taihang mountains area as a study area, based on the observed rainfall and runoff data from 1959 to 1967 and from 1985 to 2008, this study analyzed the rainfall characteristics and the corresponding response of the runoff process and compared the change of rainfall-runoff in the two periods.The results show that a) the main rainfall type during June and September is light rain and the runoff is controlled by heavy rain;b) The runoff yield mainly takes the form of infiltration excess runoff and the saturation excess runoff is generated only by long duration and low intensity rainfall under pre-wetting conditions and;c) Comparing the data of 1985-2008 and that of 1959-1967, the mean annual rain days of storm, heavy rain and moderate rain decrease 26.1%, 25.0% and 12.4% respectively, the runoff coefficient reduces by 80%and the rainfall-runoff correlation coefficient decreases obviously.These results show that the human activities have become the significant factor for rainfall-runoff relationship in Taihang mountainous area.

  1. 北京校园区降雨径流产污特性及其对水环境的影响%Urban Rainfall-runoff pollution on the campus in Beijing and its impact on water body

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    唐莉华; 何康茂; 梁宁; 孙挺

    2014-01-01

    城市降雨径流产生的非点源污染是城市水污染的重要来源.该文以北京清华大学校园区为例,研究校园区的降雨径流污染特征及其对水体环境的影响.选取校园内道路、屋顶和绿地等不同的下垫面类型,采用天然降雨径流取样和人工降雨实验相结合的方式,对降雨径流的水质进行了化验分析,得到不同下垫面的降雨径流水质特性.结果表明:屋顶和道路径流以氮素污染为主,绿地径流以总磷TP和化学需氧量COD污染为主;通过降雨前后河道水质检测,分析了地表径流对河流水体环境质量的影响;最后对比分析了绿化屋顶和普通屋顶的径流水质表明,绿化屋顶具有较好的减污效果.%Urban rainfall-runoff pollution is a significant non-point source pollution for urban water bodies.The campus of Tsinghua University was taken as a case study in this research to analyze the characteristics of the rainfall-runoff pollution for a university campus.Runoff samples from the roofs,roads and grassland were tested that to study different underlying surface features.The results showed the runoff from roofs and roads had nitrogen as the major pollutant.The greenland runoff had TP and COD as the key pollution indicators.Comparison of the river water quality before and after rainfall showed the impact of the rainfall-runoff discharge on the river water environment.Green roofs gave more effective runoff pollution reduction than non-green roofs.

  2. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    and GLUE advocators who consider errors as epistemic, arguing that the basis of formal statistical approaches that requires the residuals to be stationary and conform to a statistical distribution is unrealistic. In this paper we take a formal frequentist approach to parameter estimation and uncertainty...... evaluation of the modelled output, and we attach particular importance to inspecting the residuals of the model outputs and improving the model uncertainty description. We also introduce the probabilistic performance measures sharpness, reliability and interval skill score for model comparison...... on the SDE method and the skill scoring criterion proved that significant predictive improvements of the output can be gained from updating the states continuously. In an effort to attain residual stationarity for both the output error method and the SDE method transformation of the observations were...

  3. 黄土丘陵沟壑区坡地土壤侵蚀与降雨产流关系%Study on the Relationship Between Rainfall Runoff and Soil Erosion of Slopeland in Gullied Rolling Loess Area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    焦金鱼

    2015-01-01

    Based on the data of 27 erosive rainfalls from 2009 to 2012 of four farmland runoff plots in Anjiapo small watershed,this paper analyzed the relationship characteristics of the rainfall runoff and the soil erosion in gullied rolling loess area. The results show that rainfall runoff and soil erosion of cultivated land are proportional to the gradient variables under the same rainfall conditions. The erosive rainfall distributions are extremely uneven and show obvious distribution characteristics of one-peak in flood seasons. Leading to the soil and water loss of farmland rainfall about the runoff level is heavy rain in gullied rolling loess area. Especially,the erosive rainfall in July is the largest. Therefore,July becomes the most critical period to prevent and control the soil erosion of farmland in the gullied rolling loess area.%基于2009—2012年安家坡小流域4个农田径流小区27场侵蚀性降雨的数据资料,分析了黄土丘陵沟壑区降雨产流与土壤侵蚀的关系。结果表明:相同降雨条件下坡耕地降雨产流、土壤侵蚀与坡度成正比;汛期侵蚀性降雨的分布极不均衡,表现出明显的单峰分布特征。造成黄土丘陵沟壑区坡耕地水土流失的产流性雨量级别以大雨为主,其中7月的侵蚀性降雨量最大,成为土壤侵蚀防治的最关键时期。

  4. Simulation-optimization via Kriging and bootstrapping : A survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, Jack P.C.

    2014-01-01

    This article surveys optimization of simulated systems. The simulation may be either deterministic or random. The survey reflects the author’s extensive experience with simulation-optimization through Kriging (or Gaussian process) metamodels, analysed through parametric bootstrapping for determinist

  5. Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J.A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N.C.

    2010-01-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are e

  6. Analysis of the sensitivity to rainfall spatio-temporal variability of an operational urban rainfall-runoff model in a multifractal framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.

    2011-12-01

    In large urban areas, storm water management is a challenge with enlarging impervious areas. Many cities have implemented real time control (RTC) of their urban drainage system to either reduce overflow or limit urban contamination. A basic component of RTC is hydraulic/hydrologic model. In this paper we use the multifractal framework to suggest an innovative way to test the sensitivity of such a model to the spatio-temporal variability of its rainfall input. Indeed the rainfall variability is often neglected in urban context, being considered as a non-relevant issue at the scales involve. Our results show that on the contrary the rainfall variability should be taken into account. Universal multifractals (UM) rely on the concept of multiplicative cascade and are a standard tool to analyze and simulate with a reduced number of parameters geophysical processes that are extremely variable over a wide range of scales. This study is conducted on a 3 400 ha urban area located in Seine-Saint-Denis, in the North of Paris (France). We use the operational semi-distributed model that was calibrated by the local authority (Direction Eau et Assainnissement du 93) that is in charge of urban drainage. The rainfall data comes from the C-Band radar of Trappes operated by Météo-France. The rainfall event of February 9th, 2009 was used. A stochastic ensemble approach was implemented to quantify the uncertainty on discharge associated to the rainfall variability occurring at scales smaller than 1 km x 1 km x 5 min that is usually available with C-band radar networks. An analysis of the quantiles of the simulated peak flow showed that the uncertainty exceeds 20 % for upstream links. To evaluate a potential gain from a direct use of the rainfall data available at the resolution of X-band radar, we performed similar analysis of the rainfall fields of the degraded resolution of 9 km x 9 km x 20 min. The results show a clear decrease in uncertainty when the original resolution of C

  7. Analysis of an extreme rainfall-runoff event at the Landscape Evolution Observatory by means of a three-dimensional physically-based hydrologic model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G.-Y. Niu

    2013-10-01

    Full Text Available We present a detailed analysis, by means of a three-dimensional physically-based hydrological model, of the first experiment conducted at the Biosphere 2 Landscape Evolution Observatory (LEO. The experiment was driven by an intense rainfall event and produced a hydrological response characterized predominantly by water outflow along the lower lateral boundary (seepage face of LEO, together with overland flow that began 15 h after the start of rainfall and caused erosion of the superficial soil and formation of a small channel. The analysis is designed to test the null hypothesis that the soil is hydraulically homogenous, and an alternative hypothesis that the soil has developed some hydraulic heterogeneity in the downstream direction due to saturated soil compaction near the seepage face. More than 20 000 sensitivity simulations were run in a systematic search for optimal parameters to reproduce measurements of seepage face outflow and hillslope water storage. We varied the saturated hydraulic conductivity (Ksat of the seepage face (18 values, Ksat in the rest of the LEO soil (30 values, and soil porosity (21 values, and we considered two values of the pore size distribution parameter (n in the water retention characteristics, obtained from a particle size distribution analysis and from laboratory experiments on LEO soil samples. For both n values, the best simulations under the heterogeneous soil hypothesis produced smaller errors than the best runs under the null hypothesis. Moreover the heterogeneous runs yielded a higher probability of best realizations than the homogenous runs. These results support the hypothesis of localized incipient heterogeneity of the LEO soil.

  8. Experimental research on the influence of two cultivation practices on rainfall runoff- and (sandy and muddy) sediment-generating processes in purple soil environment

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    XU Pei; WANG Yukuan; FU Bin

    2008-01-01

    Rainfall simulations have been conducted to study the soil erosion process of purple soil in two cultivation practices-contour cultivation and downslope cultivation. Results showed that under the two cultivation practices, the surface runoff can be described by the logarithmic function formula. In the initial period of rainfall, the amount of runoff increased with the rainfall duration and 20 minutes later it became relatively constant. The changing process of soil erosion rate may be described by the logarithmic function formula. The erosion rate increased with the rainfall duration and 20 minutes later it also became constant. Under downslope cultivation condition, the soil erosion rate increased more significantly than that under contour cultivation condition in the case of of gentle rainfall intensity, and there is no obvious difference in erosion rate for downslope cultivation and contour cultivation practices. However, with increasing rainfall intensity the soil erosion rate under the downslope cultivation condition could be more than 30 times that under the contour cultivation condition. But this kind of difference would be reduced to some extent in the case of heavy rain.

  9. Computational Intelligence in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.

    2009-01-01

    The transformation from precipitation over a river basin to river streamflow is the result of many interacting processes which manifest themselves at various scales of time and space. The resulting complexity of hydrological systems, and the difficulty to properly and quantitatively express the info

  10. The value of oxygen-isotope data and multiple discharge records in calibrating a fully-distributed, physically-based rainfall-runoff model (CRUM3) to improve predictive capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neill, Aaron; Reaney, Sim

    2015-04-01

    Fully-distributed, physically-based rainfall-runoff models attempt to capture some of the complexity of the runoff processes that operate within a catchment, and have been used to address a variety of issues including water quality and the effect of climate change on flood frequency. Two key issues are prevalent, however, which call into question the predictive capability of such models. The first is the issue of parameter equifinality which can be responsible for large amounts of uncertainty. The second is whether such models make the right predictions for the right reasons - are the processes operating within a catchment correctly represented, or do the predictive abilities of these models result only from the calibration process? The use of additional data sources, such as environmental tracers, has been shown to help address both of these issues, by allowing for multi-criteria model calibration to be undertaken, and by permitting a greater understanding of the processes operating in a catchment and hence a more thorough evaluation of how well catchment processes are represented in a model. Using discharge and oxygen-18 data sets, the ability of the fully-distributed, physically-based CRUM3 model to represent the runoff processes in three sub-catchments in Cumbria, NW England has been evaluated. These catchments (Morland, Dacre and Pow) are part of the of the River Eden demonstration test catchment project. The oxygen-18 data set was firstly used to derive transit-time distributions and mean residence times of water for each of the catchments to gain an integrated overview of the types of processes that were operating. A generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure was then used to calibrate the CRUM3 model for each catchment based on a single discharge data set from each catchment. Transit-time distributions and mean residence times of water obtained from the model using the top 100 behavioural parameter sets for each catchment were then compared to

  11. Temporal variation of transit time of rainfall-runoff water and groundwater flow dynamics inferred by noble gasses concentration (SF6, CFCs) in a forested small catchment (Fukushima, Japan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakakibara, Koichi; Tsujimura, Maki; Onda, Yuichi; Iwagami, Sho; Konuma, Ryohei; Sato, Yutaro

    2016-04-01

    Time variant transit time of water in catchments can fundamentally describe catchment function, controlling rainfall-runoff generation, groundwater flow pathway and water storage. Though rainstorm event has been recognized as active phase on catchment hydrology, accurate and precise time variance of water transit time and related water dynamics during rainstorm have not been well clarified yet. Here, in order to reveal temporal variation of mean transit time of groundwater and related hydrological processes in a forested small catchment during rainstorm event, periodic and intensive field observations (15 - 17th July 2015, rainfall of 100.8 mm in total) were conducted in Yamakiya district (Fukushima, Japan) from September 2014 to December 2015. Discharge volume, groundwater table and precipitation amount were measured in 10 minutes interval. Water samples were taken from groundwater, discharge water, soil water and precipitation for determination of stable isotopic compositions (δ18O, δ2H), inorganic solutes concentration and dissolved noble gasses concentration (CFC11, CFC12, CFC113, SF6) in water. Storm hydrograph and groundwater table clearly responded to rainfall event especially with more than 30 mm per day throughout monitoring period. According to SF6 concentration in water, the mean transit time of discharge water (perennial spring) showed 3 - 6.5 years in the no-rainfall period (steady state), but fluctuated from zero to 12.5 years in the rainstorm event with totally 100.8 mm (unsteady state). The mean transit time of discharge water dramatically altered from zero to 12.5 years from before to after the tentative hydrograph peak in the rising limb, indicating new water components were dominant before tentative hydrograph peak, whereas deep groundwater component with longer residence time contributed much to discharge after the tentative hydrograph peak. On the other hand, mean residence time of groundwater (water in 5 m well) ranged from 0.5 to 11.5 years

  12. Aerial Survey of Ames Research Center - Flight Simulation Complex' Flight simulators create an

    Science.gov (United States)

    1967-01-01

    Aerial Survey of Ames Research Center - Flight Simulation Complex' Flight simulators create an authentic aircraft environment by generating the appropriate physical cues that provide the sensations of flight.

  13. Supply chain simulation tools and techniques: a survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2005-01-01

    The main contribution of this paper is twofold: it surveys different types of simulation for supply chain management; it discusses several methodological issues. These different types of simulation are spreadsheet simulation, system dynamics, discrete-event simulation and business games. Which simul

  14. Runoff Simulation of Three Gorges Area in the Upper Yangtze River during 1998 Flood Season

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    LIN Jian; Gabor BALINT; Balazs GAUZER

    2005-01-01

    The contribution of areal precipitation of the catchment from Cuntan to Yichang (Three Gorges area)to eight flood peaks of the Upper Yangtze River (the upper reaches of the Yangtze River) is diagnosed for 1998 flood season. A rainfall-runoff model is employed to simulate runoffs of this catchment. Comparison of observed and simulated runoffs shows that the rainfall-runoff model has a good capability to simulate the runoff over a large-scale river and the results describe the eight flood peaks very well Forecast results are closely associated with the sensitivity of the model to rainfall and the calibration processes. Other reasons leading to simulation errors are further discussed.

  15. 近50年泾河流域降雨-径流关系变化及驱动因素定量分析%Variation characteristics of rainfall-runoff relationship and driving factors analysis in Jinghe river basin in nearly 50 years

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    郭爱军; 畅建霞; 王义民; 黎云云

    2015-01-01

    Under the background of changing global environment and frequent anthropogenic activities, rainfall-runoff relationship has suffered tremendous change in many regions of China, particularly in arid and semi-arid regions. The Jinghe River basin (JRB) in the middle of the Loess Plateau, which is the major base of grain production in Shannxi Province, has experienced significant changes in hydro-climatic variables and the relationship between them during the past decades, causing many water resources problems. In this paper, we focused on analyzing the variation characteristics of rainfall-runoff relationship in JRB, and quantitatively assessing the effects of climate changes and human activities on the runoff reduction. It was of great importance for mastering the evolution of hydrological cycle, water resources planning and management, and water and soil conservation in JRB. The monthly rainfall and runoff data were used in the study and summed annually to investigate the variation characteristics in 1960-2010. To detect the change points of rainfall-runoff relationship, the sliding partial correlation coefficients method was proposed and the change points were further confirmed by the double mass curve method. On the basis of the studies, the relative changes of rainfall, runoff, and rainfall-runoff relationship were analyzed around the change points. Moreover, we also introduced the Archimedean Copula function, from the perspective of probability, to analyze the probability of synchronous-asynchronous encounter of rainfall and runoff in JRB. What caused the variation of rainfall-runoff relationship? Climate change or human activities? To figure out this, the method of slope change ratio of cumulative quantity (SCRCQ) was adopted in this paper. According to these results, we obtained the following conclusions: (i) Annual runoff and rainfall presented wavelike decrease change. Nevertheless, annual runoff declined more greatly than rainfall; especially, in some

  16. Bioavailability of Heavy Metals in Urban Surface Dust and Rainfall-Runoff System%城市地表灰尘-降雨径流系统重金属生物有效性研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    常静; 刘敏; 李先华; 林啸; 王丽丽; 高磊

    2009-01-01

    以上海中心城区为例,定点采集地表灰尘、径流悬浮物、雨水口和河流沉积物,探讨重金属在地表灰尘一降雨径流系统中的环境行为及其生物有效性变化.研究表明,研究区域地表灰尘重金属浓度高于上海土壤背景值,其中Zn、Pb、Cd和Cu高出5~7倍,Cr和Ni高出2倍,径流非点源污染Pb、Cr和Ni贡献较大,Cd、Cu和Zn污染程度较轻.多介质赋存形态研究表明,重金属生物有效性依次为Zn>Ni>Cd>Cu>Pb>Cr.其中Cr、Zn和Cu在4种介质中分别以残渣态、碳酸盐态和有机态为主;Ni地表灰尘以残渣态为主,其它3种介质以碳酸盐态为主;Cd地表灰尘以有机态为主,径流悬浮物以非稳定形态为主;Ph在迁移过程中主导形态由铁锰结合态变为有机态.非稳定形态(F1+F2)在径流悬浮物组分中占有最高比例,6种重金属迁移比率平均值为1.74,说明从地表灰尘到径流颗粒物,重金属生物有效性明显升高,径流水体毒性和潜在生态效应值得关注;雨水口和河流沉积物残渣态含量较高,成为重金属在城市地表环境迁移的蓄积库.%A sequential digest was used to examine the speciation of particulate-associated heavy metals in multi-media environment of surface dust and rainfall-runoff system. Within the Shanghai central district, different environment medium in four sites were sampled including street dust, runoff suspended particles, gully pot sediment and river sediment during April 2006. The result shows that in the study area, heavy metal concentrations of surface dusts are significantly higher than the Shanghai soil background values and the nonpoint runoff pollution of Pb, Cr and Ni are serious while Cd, Cu and Zn pollution degree relatively light. In the multi-media transport process, the order of heavy metal bioavailability is Zn>Ni>Cd>Cu>Pb>Cr. For Cr, Zn and Cu, the dominated chemical forms of the four different environmental media remain the same phase of

  17. A rainfall-runoff process simulation in Beijing Fragrant hill area based on the SWMM model%基于SWMM模型的香山地区降雨径流过程模拟研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    张邢超; 孟凡臣; 张书函; 彭淑芳; 宋翠萍

    2014-01-01

    在对香山地区地形、汇水情况、降雨径流等数据资料进行调查研究的基础上,以香泉环岛汇水区为研究对象,基于SWMM软件平台构建了汇水区降雨径流模型,以2012年7月21日暴雨过程和淹没水深调研资料检验模型基于构建的模型分析1年、5年、10年一遇降雨重现期条件下现状情景和添加低影响开发设施情景的降雨径流过程,量化了3种降雨情景下低影响开发措施对汇水区出口最大淹没水深的削减率分别为52.7%、16.7%、11.1%,模拟结果为区域增加雨水利用和防洪安全提供技术支撑.

  18. Application of WMS hydrologic models to simulation rainfall-runoff of the watershed%水文模型WMS在流域降雨—径流模拟上的应用

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贺国平; 张彤; 赵月芬; 李会安

    2007-01-01

    WMS模型能基于DEM自动提取流域边界与河网,可以在河网上任意设置流域出口与定义子流域,并基于地形拓扑关系计算流域、子流域与河网的相关属性.采用WMS可以方便地组建集总式水文模型和分布式水文模型,通过与嵌入的多个模块联合,WMS可以进行流域的降雨-径流、水土保持效果评估、城市下水道布局、洪水预报等方面的研究.

  19. Calibrated Ultra Fast Image Simulations for the Dark Energy Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Bruderer, Claudio; Refregier, Alexandre; Amara, Adam; Berge, Joel; Gamper, Lukas

    2015-01-01

    Weak lensing by large-scale structure is a powerful technique to probe the dark components of the universe. To understand the measurement process of weak lensing and the associated systematic effects, image simulations are becoming increasingly important. For this purpose we present a first implementation of the $\\textit{Monte Carlo Control Loops}$ ($\\textit{MCCL}$; Refregier & Amara 2014), a coherent framework for studying systematic effects in weak lensing. It allows us to model and calibrate the shear measurement process using image simulations from the Ultra Fast Image Generator (UFig; Berge et al. 2013). We apply this framework to a subset of the data taken during the Science Verification period (SV) of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We calibrate the UFig simulations to be statistically consistent with DES images. We then perform tolerance analyses by perturbing the simulation parameters and study their impact on the shear measurement at the one-point level. This allows us to determine the relative im...

  20. Simulating the LSST OCS for conducting survey simulations using the LSST scheduler

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reuter, Michael A.; Cook, Kem H.; Delgado, Francisco; Petry, Catherine E.; Ridgway, Stephen T.

    2016-08-01

    The Operations Simulator was used to prototype the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) Scheduler. Currently, the Scheduler is being developed separately to interface with the LSST Observatory Control System (OCS). A new Simulator is under concurrent development to adjust to this new architecture. This requires a package simulating enough of the OCS to allow execution of realistic schedules. This new package is called the Simulated OCS (SOCS). In this paper we detail the SOCS construction plan, package structure, LSST communication middleware platform use, provide some interesting use cases that the separated architecture allows and the software engineering practices used in development.

  1. Status of simulation in health care education: an international survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Qayumi K

    2014-11-01

    Full Text Available Karim Qayumi,1 George Pachev,2 Bin Zheng,3 Amitai Ziv,4 Valentyna Koval,1 Sadia Badiei,5 Adam Cheng6 1Center of Excellence for Simulation Education and Innovation, Department of Surgery, 2Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Surgical Simulation Research Laboratory, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; 4Israel Center for Medical Simulation, Chaim Sheba Medical Center and Sackler Medical School, Tel Aviv University, Tel Aviv, Israel; 5Centre of Excellence for Simulation Education and Innovation, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 6KidSIM-ASPIRE Simulation Research Program, Alberta Children’s Hospital, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, CanadaAbstract: Simulation is rapidly penetrating the terrain of health care education and has gained growing acceptance as an educational method and patient safety tool. Despite this, the state of simulation in health care education has not yet been evaluated on a global scale. In this project, we studied the global status of simulation in health care education by determining the degree of financial support, infrastructure, manpower, information technology capabilities, engagement of groups of learners, and research and scholarly activities, as well as the barriers, strengths, opportunities for growth, and other aspects of simulation in health care education. We utilized a two-stage process, including an online survey and a site visit that included interviews and debriefings. Forty-two simulation centers worldwide participated in this study, the results of which show that despite enormous interest and enthusiasm in the health care community, use of simulation in health care education is limited to specific areas and is not a budgeted item in many institutions. Absence of a sustainable business model, as well as sufficient financial support in terms of budget, infrastructure

  2. Supernova Simulations and Strategies For the Dark Energy Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Bernstein, J P; Kuhlmann, S; Biswas, R; Kovacs, E; Aldering, G; Crane, I; Finley, D A; Frieman, J A; Hufford, T; Jarvis, M J; Kim, A G; Marriner, J; Mukherjee, P; Nichol, R C; Nugent, P; Parkinson, D; Reis, R R R; Sako, M; Spinka, H; Sullivan, M

    2011-01-01

    We present an analysis of supernova light curves simulated for the upcoming Dark Energy Survey (DES) supernova search. The simulations employ a code suite that generates and fits realistic light curves in order to obtain distance modulus/redshift pairs that are passed to a cosmology fitter. We investigated several different survey strategies including field selection, supernova selection biases, and photometric redshift measurements. Using the results of this study, we chose a 30 square degree search area in the griz filter set. We forecast 1) that this survey will provide a homogeneous sample of up to 4000 Type Ia supernovae in the redshift range 0.05

  3. A survey on hair modeling: styling, simulation, and rendering.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ward, Kelly; Bertails, Florence; Kim, Tae-Yong; Marschner, Stephen R; Cani, Marie-Paule; Lin, Ming C

    2007-01-01

    Realistic hair modeling is a fundamental part of creating virtual humans in computer graphics. This paper surveys the state of the art in the major topics of hair modeling: hairstyling, hair simulation, and hair rendering. Because of the difficult, often unsolved problems that arise in all these areas, a broad diversity of approaches are used, each with strengths that make it appropriate for particular applications. We discuss each of these major topics in turn, presenting the unique challenges facing each area and describing solutions that have been presented over the years to handle these complex issues. Finally, we outline some of the remaining computational challenges in hair modeling.

  4. High-fidelity simulation in anesthesiology training: a survey of Canadian anesthesiology residents' simulator experience.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Price, James W; Price, John R; Pratt, Dan D; Collins, John B; McDonald, Julie

    2010-02-01

    The objective of this survey was to explore Canadian anesthesiology residents' educational experience with high-fidelity simulation and to improve understanding of the factors perceived to have either a positive or a negative effect on residents' learning. In 2008, all Canadian anesthesiology residents (n = 599) were invited to complete a ten-minute anonymous online survey. Survey questions were derived from two sources, a literature search of MEDLINE (1966 to present), EMBASE (1980 to present), and the Cochrane and Campbell collaboration libraries and the experience of 25 pilot residents and the lead author. The survey response rate was 27.9% (n = 167). Junior residents (PGY1-3) responded that it would be helpful to have an introductory simulation course dealing with common intraoperative emergencies. The introduction of multidisciplinary scenarios (where nurses and colleagues from different specialties were involved in scenarios) was strongly supported. With respect to gender, male anesthesia residents indicated their comfort in making mistakes and asking for help in the simulator more frequently than female residents. In accordance with the ten Best Evidence Medical Education (BEME) principles of successful simulator education, Canadian centres could improve residents' opportunities for repetitive practice (with feedback), individualization of scenarios, and defined learning outcomes for scenarios. Anesthesiology residents indicate that simulation-based education is an anxiety provoking experience, but value its role in promoting safe practice and enhancing one's ability to deal with emergency situations. Suggestions to improve simulation training include increasing residents' access, adopting a more student-centred approach to learning, and creating a safer learning environment.

  5. SKA Weak Lensing II: Simulated Performance and Survey Design Considerations

    CERN Document Server

    Bonaldi, Anna; Camera, Stefano; Brown, Michael L

    2016-01-01

    We construct a pipeline for simulating weak lensing cosmology surveys with the Square Kilometre Array (SKA), taking as inputs telescope sensitivity curves; correlated source flux, size and redshift distributions; a simple ionospheric model; source redshift and ellipticity measurement errors. We then use this simulation pipeline to optimise a 2-year weak lensing survey performed with the first deployment of the SKA (SKA1). Our assessments are based on the total signal-to-noise of the recovered shear power spectra, a metric that we find to correlate very well with a standard dark energy figure of merit. We first consider the choice of frequency band, trading off increases in number counts at lower frequencies against poorer resolution; our analysis strongly prefers the higher frequency Band 2 (950-1760 MHz) channel of the SKA-MID telescope to the lower frequency Band 1 (350-1050 MHz). Best results would be obtained by allowing the centre of Band 2 to shift towards lower frequency, around 1.1 GHz. We then move o...

  6. 基于SWMM模拟的城市内河区域雨水径流和水质分析%SWMM simulationbased analysis on rainfall runoff and water quality within urban inland river area

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    吴建立; 孙飞云; 董文艺; 王宏杰

    2012-01-01

    利用SWMM模型对城市内河典型区域(清湖周边区域)暴雨径流及水质进行模拟,考查不同重现期和不同透水面积条件下暴雨径流及水质随时间的变化关系.结果表明:随着重现期和透水面积的增大,地表的渗透能力下降,径流总量和径流峰值都增大,增长幅度逐渐减少.而且,污染物浓度,随着重现期和透水面积的增大,都呈现出前期逐渐增大,中期出现峰值,后期逐渐减小的趋势,污染物冲刷效果越明显.重现期小、城市化进程快的区域,地表渗透能力减弱,径流峰值和径流总量上升,洪涝灾害风险加大.%Based on SWMM (Storm Water Management Model) , the storm runoff and water quality in the typical area ( around clean water lake) of urban inland river are simulated herein; in which the relationship between storm runoff and water quality as a function of time is examined under the conditions of various return periods and permeable areas. The result shows that the permeability of ground surface is to be decreased, while the total runoff and its peak value are to be increased with the gradual decrease of the increment amplitude along with the increases of both the return period and the permeable area. Moreover, along with the increasing of both the return period and permeable area, the concentration of pollutant presents the trend that it gradually increases in the fore-period, peaks up in the mid-period and then gradually decreases in the late-period with more and more obvious flushing effect of pollutant. For the area with short return period and quick urbanization process, the permeability of ground surface is to be decreased along with the rise of the peak value and total runoff, therefore, the risk of flood and water logging is to be increased as well.

  7. Modern Cosmology: Interactive Computer Simulations that use Recent Observational Surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Moldenhauer, Jacob; Stone, Keenan; Shuler, Ezekiel

    2013-01-01

    We present a collection of new, open-source computational tools for numerically modeling recent large-scale observational data sets using modern cosmology theory. Specifically, these tools will allow both students and researchers to constrain the parameter values in competitive cosmological models, thereby discovering both the accelerated expansion of the universe and its composition (e.g., dark matter and dark energy). These programs have several features to help the non-cosmologist build an understanding of cosmological models and their relation to observational data: a built-in collection of several real observational data sets; sliders to vary the values of the parameters that define different cosmological models; real-time plotting of simulated data; and $\\chi^2$ calculations of the goodness of fit for each choice of parameters (theory) and observational data (experiment). The current list of built-in observations includes several recent supernovae Type Ia surveys, baryon acoustic oscillations, the cosmi...

  8. Simulation of Telescope Detectivity for Geo Survey and Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, P.

    2014-09-01

    As the number of space debris on Earths Orbit increases steadily, the need to survey, track and catalogue them becomes of key importance. In this context, CNES has been using the TAROT Telescopes (Rapid Telescopes for Transient Objects owned and operated by CNRS) for several years to conduct studies about space surveillance and tracking. Today, two testbeds of services using the TAROT telescopes are running every night: one for GEO situational awareness and the second for debris tracking. Additionally to the CNES research activity on space surveillance and tracking domain, an operational collision avoidance service for LEO and GEO satellites is in place at CNES for several years. This service named CAESAR (Conjunction Analysis and Evaluation: Alerts and Recommendations) is used by CNES as well as by external customers. As the optical debris tracking testbed based on TAROT telescopes is the first step toward an operational provider of GEO measures that could be used by CAESAR, simulations have been done to help choosing the sites and types of telescopes that could be added in the GEO survey and debris tracking telescope network. One of the distinctive characteristics of the optical observation of space debris compared to traditional astronomic observation is the need to observe objects at low elevations. The two mains reasons for this are the need to observe the GEO belt from non-equatorial sites and the need to observe debris at longitudes far from the telescope longitude. This paper presents the results of simulations of the detectivity for GEO debris of various telescopes and sites, based on models of the GEO belt, the atmosphere and the instruments. One of the conclusions is that clever detection of faint streaks and spread sources by image processing is one of the major keys to improve the detection of debris on the GEO belt.

  9. Numerical simulation of seismic survey in coal mine roadway

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Zhu, G.; Li, G.; Cheng, J. [Chang' an University, Xi' an (China). College of Geological Engineering and Geomatics

    2008-11-15

    With the staggered-grid high order finite difference wave field simulation method, the elastic wave field caused by explosives with a point source in a coal mine roadway was simulated and different type of waves in the wave field were distinguished. Comparing all three spatial components of the propagation of the waves caused by explosives on or under the roadway at different depths, this indicates that: on the roadway base, the reverberation caused by the top and bottom of the roadway (multiple reflection on the top and bottom of the roadway) is the main disturbing wave in the roadway seismic survey which will seriously disturb the reflection of the deep place coal bed underneath the roadway; at a depth of several metres under the roadway basal bottom boundary, the reverberation disturbing wave is greatly reduced and the reflection caused by deeper coal bed can be clearly detected; high signal-to-noise ratio data can be found with the Y component detector because of the propagation of SH waves; high resolution of seismic data is possible in a roadway. In the model, a cavity 3 metres high and 4 metres wide can be detected underneath the roadway. 5 refs., 7 figs.

  10. Users guide for distributed routing rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dawdy, D.R.; Schaake, John C.; Alley, William M.

    1978-01-01

    A computer program of a watershed model for routing urban flood discharges through a branched system of pipes or natural channels using rainfall as input has been developed and documented. The model combines soil-moisture-accounting and rainfall-excess components developed by Dawdy and others (1972) with the kinematic-wave routing method presented by Leclerc and Schaake (1973). (Woodard-USGS)

  11. Assessment of rainfall-runoff modelling for climate change mitigation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Otieno, Hesbon; Han, Dawei; Woods, Ross

    2015-04-01

    Sustainable water resources management requires reliable methods for quantification of hydrological variables. This is a big challenge in developing countries, due to the problem of inadequate data as a result of sparse gauge networks. Successive occurrence of both abundance and shortage of water can arise in a catchment within the same year, with deficit situations becoming an increasingly occurring phenomenon in Kenya. This work compares the performance of two models in the Tana River catchment in Kenya, in generation of synthetic flow data. One of the models is the simpler USGS Thornthwaite monthly water balance model that uses a monthly time step and has three parameters. In order to explore alternative modelling schemes, the more complex Pitman model with 19 parameters was also applied in the catchment. It is uncertain whether the complex model (Pitman) will do better than the simple model, because a model with a large number of parameters may do well in the current system but poorly in future. To check this we have used old data (1970-1985) to calibrate the models and to validate with recent data (after 1985) to see which model is robust over time. This study is relevant and useful to water resources managers in scenario analysis for water resources management, planning and development in African countries with similar climates and catchment conditions.

  12. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-04-17

    Apr 17, 2012 ... water storage capacity (Botha, et al., 2003; Botha, 2006). Rainfall in ... dicted runoff from crusted soils in Arizona (Morin and Cluff,. 1980), and in Israel .... intervals by an automatic tipping-bucket rain gauge (Hobo. Event (C) ...

  13. Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

    2017-04-01

    Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

  14. TOPMODEL simulations of streamflow and depth to water table in Fishing Brook Watershed, New York, 2007-09

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nystrom, Elizabeth A.; Burns, Douglas A.

    2011-01-01

    TOPMODEL, a physically based, variable-source area rainfall-runoff model, was used to simulate streamflow and depth to water table for the period January 2007-September 2009 in the 65.6 square kilometers of Fishing Brook Watershed in northern New York. The Fishing Brook Watershed is located in the headwaters of the Hudson River and is predominantly forested with a humid, cool continental climate. The motivation for applying this model at Fishing Brook was to provide a simulation that would be effective later at this site in modeling the interaction of hydrologic processes with mercury dynamics.

  15. A survey of modelling methods for high-fidelity wind farm simulations using large eddy simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breton, Simon-Philippe; Sumner, J.; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    2017-01-01

    Large eddy simulations (LES) of wind farms have the capability to provide valuable and detailed information about the dynamics of wind turbine wakes. For this reason, their use within the wind energy research community is on the rise, spurring the development of new models and methods. This review...... surveys the most common schemes available to model the rotor, atmospheric conditions and terrain effects within current state-of-the-art LES codes, of which an overview is provided. A summary of the experimental research data available for validation of LES codes within the context of single and multiple...

  16. Preparing for the WFIRST Microlensing Survey: Simulations, Requirements, Survey Strategies, and Precursor Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudi, Bernard

    As one of the four primary investigations of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission, the microlensing survey will monitor several square degrees of the Galactic bulge for a total of roughly one year. Its primary science goal is to "Complete the statistical census of planetary systems in the Galaxy, from the outer habitable zone to free floating planets, including analogs of all of the planets in our Solar System with the mass of Mars or greater.'' WFIRST will therefore (a) measure the mass function of cold bound planets with masses greater than that of roughly twice the mass of the moon, including providing an estimate of the frequency of sub-Mars-mass embryos, (b) determine the frequency of free-floating planets with masses down to the Earth and below, (c) inform the frequency and habitability of potentially habitable worlds, and (d) revolutionize our understanding of the demographics of cold planets with its exquisite sensitivity to, and large expected yield of, planets in a broad and unexplored region of parameter space. In order for the microlensing survey to be successful, we must develop a plan to go from actual survey observations obtained by the WFIRST telescope and hardware to the final science products. This plan will involve many steps, the development of software, data reduction, and analysis tools at each step, and a list of requirements for each of these components. The overarching goal of this proposal is thus to develop a complete flowdown from the science goals of the microlensing survey to the mission design and hardware components. We have assembled a team of scientists with the breadth of expertise to achieve this primary goal. Our specific subgoals are as follows. Goal 1: We will refine the input Galactic models in order to provide improved microlensing event rates in the WFIRST fields. Goal 2: We will use the improved event rate estimates, along with improvements in our simulation methodology, to provide higher

  17. Simulation in Medical Student Education: Survey of Clerkship Directors in Emergency Medicine

    OpenAIRE

    Heitz, Corey; Eyck, Raymond Ten; Smith, Michael; Fitch, Michael

    2011-01-01

    Introduction The objective of this study is to identify (1) the current role of simulation in medical student emergency medicine (EM) education; (2) the challenges to initiating and sustaining simulation-based programs; and (3) educational advances to meet these challenges. Methods We solicited members of the Clerkship Directors in Emergency Medicine (CDEM) e-mail list to complete a Web-based survey addressing the use of simulation in both EM clerkships and preclinical EM curricula. Survey el...

  18. A survey of modelling methods for high-fidelity wind farm simulations using large eddy simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Breton, S-P; Sumner, J; Sørensen, J N; Hansen, K S; Sarmast, S; Ivanell, S

    2017-04-13

    Large eddy simulations (LES) of wind farms have the capability to provide valuable and detailed information about the dynamics of wind turbine wakes. For this reason, their use within the wind energy research community is on the rise, spurring the development of new models and methods. This review surveys the most common schemes available to model the rotor, atmospheric conditions and terrain effects within current state-of-the-art LES codes, of which an overview is provided. A summary of the experimental research data available for validation of LES codes within the context of single and multiple wake situations is also supplied. Some typical results for wind turbine and wind farm flows are presented to illustrate best practices for carrying out high-fidelity LES of wind farms under various atmospheric and terrain conditions.This article is part of the themed issue 'Wind energy in complex terrains'.

  19. A Survey of Computer Simulations of Digital Avionics Systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-09-01

    62 REFERENCES....................66 BIBLIOGRAPHY...................68 vi LIST OF FIGURES Figure Page 1 The GCSS Batch Run Environment ...Simulator Figure 1 presents a pictorial representation of this environment . The IPP process formats and derives initialization infor- mation from user...modules in the simulation, most are straightforward: RSTA is a flag array, MDIO is the number of direct I/O devices in the simulation. Table 1 contains

  20. Status of simulation in health care education: an international survey

    OpenAIRE

    Qayumi K; Pachev G; Zheng B.; Ziv A; Koval V; Badiei S; Cheng A

    2014-01-01

    Karim Qayumi,1 George Pachev,2 Bin Zheng,3 Amitai Ziv,4 Valentyna Koval,1 Sadia Badiei,5 Adam Cheng6 1Center of Excellence for Simulation Education and Innovation, Department of Surgery, 2Faculty of Pharmaceutical Sciences, University of British Columbia, Vancouver, BC, Canada; 3Surgical Simulation Research Laboratory, Department of Surgery, Faculty of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada; 4Israel Center for Medical Simulation, Chaim Sheba Medical Center and Sac...

  1. Computerized Simulation in the Social Sciences: A Survey and Evaluation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garson, G. David

    2009-01-01

    After years at the periphery of the social sciences, simulation is now emerging as an important and widely used tool for understanding social phenomena. Through simulation, researchers can identify causal effects, specify critical parameter estimates, and clarify the state of the art with respect to what is understood about how processes evolve…

  2. Simulation in Medical Student Education: Survey of the Clerkship Directors in Emergency Medicine

    OpenAIRE

    Michael Fitch; Michael Smith; Raymond Ten Eyck; Corey Heitz

    2011-01-01

    Introduction: The objective of this study is to identify (1) the current role of simulation in medical student emergency medicine (EM) education; (2) the challenges to initiating and sustaining simulationbased programs; and (3) educational advances to meet these challenges. Methods: We solicited members of the Clerkship Directors in Emergency Medicine (CDEM) e-mail list to complete a Web-based survey addressing the use of simulation in both EM clerkships and preclinical EM curricula. Survey ...

  3. Rainfall estimates for hydrological models: Comparing rain gauge, radar and microwave link data as input for the Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, Claudia; Overeem, Aart; Uijlenhoet, Remko

    2015-04-01

    Several rainfall measurement techniques are available for hydrological applications, each with its own spatial and temporal resolution. We investigated the effect of differences in rainfall estimates on discharge simulations in a lowland catchment by forcing a novel rainfall-runoff model (WALRUS) with rainfall data from gauges, radars and microwave links. The hydrological model used for this analysis is the recently developed Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS). WALRUS is a rainfall-runoff model accounting for hydrological processes relevant to areas with shallow groundwater (e.g. groundwater-surface water feedback). Here, we used WALRUS for case studies in the Hupsel Brook catchment. We used two automatic rain gauges with hourly resolution, located inside the catchment (the base run) and 30 km northeast. Operational (real-time) and climatological (gauge-adjusted) C-band radar products and country-wide rainfall maps derived from microwave link data from a cellular telecommunication network were also used. Discharges simulated with these different inputs were compared to observations. Traditionally, the precipitation research community places emphasis on quantifying spatial errors and uncertainty, but for hydrological applications, temporal errors and uncertainty should be quantified as well. Its memory makes the hydrologic system sensitive to missed or badly timed rainfall events, but also emphasizes the effect of a bias in rainfall estimates. Systematic underestimation of rainfall by the uncorrected operational radar product leads to very dry model states and an increasing underestimation of discharge. Using the rain gauge 30 km northeast of the catchment yields good results for climatological studies, but not for forecasting individual floods. Simulating discharge using the maps derived from microwave link data and the gauge-adjusted radar product yields good results for both events and climatological studies. This indicates that these products can be

  4. Numerical simulation research on multi-electrodes resistivity imaging survey array

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Jianjun NIU; Xiaopei ZHANG; Lizhi DU

    2008-01-01

    Multi-electrodes Resistivity Imaging Survey (MRIS) is an array method of electrical survey. In practice how to choose a reasonable array is the key to get reliable survey results. Based on four methods of MRIS such as Wenner, Schlumberger, Pole-pole and Dipole-dipole the authors established the model, by studying the result of the forward numerical simulation modeling and inverse modeling, and analyzed the differences among the different forms of detection devices.

  5. A Survey of Simulation Utilization in Anesthesiology Residency Programs in the United States.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rochlen, Lauryn R; Housey, Michelle; Gannon, Ian; Tait, Alan R; Naughton, Norah; Kheterpal, Sachin

    2016-06-01

    Given the evolution of competency-based education and evidence supporting the benefits of incorporating simulation into anesthesiology residency training, simulation will likely play an important role in the training and assessment of anesthesiology residents. Currently, there are little data available regarding the current status of simulation-based curricula across US residency programs. In this study, we assessed simulation-based training and assessment in US anesthesiology programs using a survey designed to elicit information regarding the type, frequency, and content of the simulation courses offered at the 132 Accreditation Council of Graduate Medical Education-certified anesthesiology training programs. The response rate for the survey was 66%. Although most of the responding programs offered simulation-based courses for interns and residents and during CA-1 orientation, the curriculum varied greatly among programs. Approximately 40% of responding programs use simulation for resident assessment and remediation. The majority of responding programs favored standard simulation-based training as part of residency training (89%), and the most common perceived obstacles to doing so were time, money, and human resources. The results from this survey highlight that there are currently large variations in simulation-based training and assessment among training programs. It also confirms that many program directors feel that standardizing some components of simulation-based education and assessment would be beneficial. Given the positive impact simulation has on skill retention and operating room preparedness, it may be worthwhile to consider developing a standard curriculum.

  6. Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Literature Survey: Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    produced the N- ABLE tool which is used to simulate critical infrastructure interdependencies of businesses in the U.S. economy . Idaho National Laboratory...International Journal of Risk Assessment and Management. 2006;6(4-6):423-439. 32. Zale JJ KB. A GIS-based football stadium evacuation model...of IT based disasters on the interdependent sectors of the US economy . In: proceedings from IEEE Systems and Information Engineering Design

  7. Exosystem Modeling for Mission Simulation and Survey Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Savransky, Dmitry

    In the last twenty years, the existence of exoplanets (planets orbiting stars other than our own sun) has gone from conjecture to established fact. The accelerating rate of exoplanet discovery has generated a wealth of important new knowledge, and is due mainly to the development and maturation of a large number of technologies that drive a variety of planet detection and observation methods. The overall goal of the exoplanet community is to study planets around all types of stars, and across all ranges of planetary mass and orbit size. With this capability we will be able to build confidence in planet formation and evolution theories and learn how our solar system came to exist. Achieving this goal requires creating dedicated instrumentation capable of detecting signals that are a small fraction of the magnitude of signals we can observe today. It also requires analyzing highly noisy data sets for the faint patterns that represent the presence of planets. Accurate modeling and simulation are necessary for both these tasks. With detailed planetary and observation models we can predict the type of data that will be generated when a specific instrument observes a specific planetary system. This allows us to evaluate the performance of both the instrument and the data analysis methods used to extract planet signals from observational data. The same simulations can help optimize observation scheduling and statistical analysis of data sets. The purpose of this thesis is to lay down the groundwork necessary for building simulations of this type, and to demonstrate a few of their many possible applications. First, we show how each of four different detection methods (astrometry, doppler spectroscopy, transit photometry and direct imaging) can be described using a common parameter set which also encodes sufficient information to propagate the described exosystem in time. We analyze this parameter set and derive the distribution functions of several of its elements. These

  8. Survey of medical student preference for simulation models for basic dermatologic surgery skills: simulation platforms in medical education.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Adams, Chad C; Marquart, Jason D; Nicholas, Luke L; Sperling, Leonard C; Meyerle, Jon H

    2014-04-01

    The authors investigated the use of simulator platforms in fourth-year medical student education. To evaluate which simulation platform students preferred for learning dermatologic procedures and to assess the effectiveness of the exercise in terms of the change in confidence that the students had performing dermatologic procedures. After medical students were instructed on how to perform a punch biopsy and then assisted in executing the task, they were surveyed to determine their preferred simulation platform and simulator properties. Students were surveyed at the beginning and completion of the teaching block. One hundred fifty-seven students completed the skills laboratory, and 78 completed the preference questionnaire. Of the 11 surveyed categories, students preferred the pig foot in eight categories. Seventy students responded to a surgical skills questionnaire that assessed their overall confidence in planning and executing the procedure before and after the skills laboratory. The students had a statistically significant increase in confidence in dermatologic procedural skills as a result of the activity. Preference data show that the pig foot model is preferred for teaching dermatologic surgical skills. These results re-affirm that the pig foot model is an effective, low-cost solution for training. © 2014 by the American Society for Dermatologic Surgery, Inc. Published by Wiley Periodicals, Inc.

  9. Simulation-Optimization via Kriging and Bootstrapping : A Survey (Revision of CentER DP 2011-064)

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, Jack P.C.

    2013-01-01

    Abstract: This article surveys optimization of simulated systems. The simulation may be either deterministic or random. The survey reflects the author’s extensive experience with simulation-optimization through Kriging (or Gaussian process) metamodels. The analysis of these metamodels may use parame

  10. A survey of artifact-simulation approaches from the perspective of application to use processes of consumer durables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Vegte, W.F.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, approaches for artifact-behavior simulation are reviewed. The motivation behind the survey is to explore available knowledge for the development of a new form of computer support for conceptual design to simulate use processes of consumer durables. The survey covers the simulation of

  11. Using simulation to improve wildlife surveys: Wintering mallards in Mississippi, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pearse, A.T.; Reinecke, K.J.; Dinsmore, S.J.; Kaminski, R.M.

    2009-01-01

    Wildlife conservation plans generally require reliable data about population abundance and density. Aerial surveys often can provide these data; however, associated costs necessitate designing and conducting surveys efficiently. We developed methods to simulate population distributions of mallards (Anas platyrhynchos) wintering in western Mississippi, USA, by combining bird observations from three previous strip-transect surveys and habitat data from three sets of satellite images representing conditions when surveys were conducted. For each simulated population distribution, we compared 12 primary survey designs and two secondary design options by using coefficients of variation (CV) of population indices as the primary criterion for assessing survey performance. In all, 3 of the 12 primary designs provided the best precision (CV???11.7%) and performed equally well (WR08082E1d.gif diff???0.6%). Features of the designs that provided the largest gains in precision were optimal allocation of sample effort among strata and configuring the study area into five rather than four strata, to more precisely estimate mallard indices in areas of consistently high density. Of the two secondary design options, we found including a second observer to double the size of strip transects increased precision or decreased costs, whereas ratio estimation using auxiliary habitat data from satellite images did not increase precision appreciably. We recommend future surveys of mallard populations in our study area use the strata we developed, optimally allocate samples among strata, employ PPS or EPS sampling, and include two observers when qualified staff are available. More generally, the methods we developed to simulate population distributions from prior survey data provide a cost-effective method to assess performance of alternative wildlife surveys critical to informing management decisions, and could be extended to account for effects of detectability on estimates of true

  12. Indoor Environment and Energy Use in Historic Buildings - Comparing Survey Results with Measurements and Simulations

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rohdin, P.; Dalewski, M.; Moshfegh, B.

    2012-01-01

    Increasing demand for energy efficiency places new requirements on energy use in historic buildings. Efficient energy use is essential if a historic building is to be used and preserved, especially buildings with conventional uses such as residential buildings and offices. This paper presents...... results which combine energy auditing with building energy simulation and an indoor environment survey among the occupants of the building. Both when comparing simulations with measurements as well as with survey results good agreement was found. The two efficiency measures that are predicted to increase...... energy and thermal performance the most for this group of buildings were reduced infiltration and increasing heat-exchanger efficiency....

  13. Blind Extragalactic HI Surveys with the Arecibo and Green Bank Telescopes: I. Simulations and Strategies for Survey Design

    Science.gov (United States)

    Giovanelli, R.; Haynes, M. P.; Spekkens, K.; Springob, C. M.; Masters, K. L.; Saintonge, A.; Catinella, B.; Kent, B.; Maddalena, R. J.; Magnani, L.; Koopmann, R. A.

    2003-12-01

    The currently popular Λ CDM framework of evolution of cosmic structure predicts a population of low mass halos that far exceeds that of dwarf galaxies. Low mass halos could, however, have retained little of their initial baryonic mass fraction, and their star formation efficiency could be very low. The possibility of detecting such systems in the 21 cm HI line has been investigated by several teams, and blind extragalactic HI surveys have been undertaken to date, pushing estimates of the HI Mass Function to limits approaching 107 M⊙ (Zwaan et al. 1997, Rosenberg and Schneider 2002, Zwaan et al. 2003). Extrapolations of those estimates to 106 M⊙ disagree with each other quite substantially. Since these low mass objects may represent the population of low mass halos predicted to exist by numerical Λ CDM simulations, the determination of their space density and its possible dependence on galaxy environment remains an important goal. Systems of very low HI mass can only be detected at relatively small distances. It thus becomes important to optimize the survey design, matching it to the local characteristics of the cosmic density field. We present results of various survey simulations, some currently underway with the single-beam Arecibo and Green Bank telescopes and future ones that will be enabled with the advent of the Arecibo L-band feed array in late 2004. This work is partially funded by NSF grant AST-0307661.

  14. Simulated Effects of 1/f Noise on an SKA Intensity Mapping Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Harper, Stuart E; Battye, Richard; Olivari, Lucas

    2016-01-01

    It has been proposed recently that the SKA1-MID could be used to conduct an HI intensity mapping survey that could rival upcoming Stage IV dark energy surveys. However, measuring the weak HI signal is expected to be very challenging due to contaminations such as residual Galactic emission, RFI, and instrumental 1/f noise. Modelling the effects of these contaminants on the cosmological HI signal requires numerical end-to-end simulations. Here we present how 1/f noise within the receiver can double the effective uncertainty of an SKA-like survey to HI on large angular scales (l < 50).

  15. Simulation in Medical Student Education: Survey of the Clerkship Directors in Emergency Medicine

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michael Fitch

    2011-05-01

    Full Text Available Introduction: The objective of this study is to identify (1 the current role of simulation in medical student emergency medicine (EM education; (2 the challenges to initiating and sustaining simulationbased programs; and (3 educational advances to meet these challenges. Methods: We solicited members of the Clerkship Directors in Emergency Medicine (CDEM e-mail list to complete a Web-based survey addressing the use of simulation in both EM clerkships and preclinical EM curricula. Survey elements addressed the nature of the undergraduate EM clerkship and utilization of simulation, types of technology, and barriers to increased use in each setting. Results: CDEM members representing 60 EM programs on the list (80% responded. Sixty-seven percent of EM clerkships are in the fourth year of medical school only and 45% are required. Fewer than 25% of clerkship core curriculum hours incorporate simulation. The simulation modalities used most frequently were high-fidelity models (79%, task trainers (55%, and low-fidelity models (30%. Respondents identified limited faculty time (88.7% and clerkship hours (47.2% as the main barriers to implementing simulation training in EM clerkships. Financial resources, faculty time, and the volume of students were the main barriers to additional simulation in preclinical years. Conclusion: A focused, stepwise application of simulation to medical student EM curricula can help optimize the ratio of student benefit to faculty time. Limited time in the curriculum can be addressed by replacing existing material with simulation-based modules for those subjects better suited to simulation. Faculty can use hybrid approaches in the preclinical years to combine simulation with classroom settings for either small or large groups to more actively engage learners while minimizing identified barriers.

  16. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  17. HACC: Simulating Sky Surveys on State-of-the-Art Supercomputing Architectures

    CERN Document Server

    Habib, Salman; Finkel, Hal; Frontiere, Nicholas; Heitmann, Katrin; Daniel, David; Fasel, Patricia; Morozov, Vitali; Zagaris, George; Peterka, Tom; Vishwanath, Venkatram; Lukic, Zarija; Sehrish, Saba; Liao, Wei-keng

    2014-01-01

    Current and future surveys of large-scale cosmic structure are associated with a massive and complex datastream to study, characterize, and ultimately understand the physics behind the two major components of the 'Dark Universe', dark energy and dark matter. In addition, the surveys also probe primordial perturbations and carry out fundamental measurements, such as determining the sum of neutrino masses. Large-scale simulations of structure formation in the Universe play a critical role in the interpretation of the data and extraction of the physics of interest. Just as survey instruments continue to grow in size and complexity, so do the supercomputers that enable these simulations. Here we report on HACC (Hardware/Hybrid Accelerated Cosmology Code), a recently developed and evolving cosmology N-body code framework, designed to run efficiently on diverse computing architectures and to scale to millions of cores and beyond. HACC can run on all current supercomputer architectures and supports a variety of prog...

  18. SURVEY SIMULATIONS OF A NEW NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID DETECTION SYSTEM

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mainzer, A.; Bauer, J.; Giorgini, J.; Masiero, J. [Jet Propulsion Laboratory, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91109 (United States); Grav, T. [Planetary Science Institute, Tucson, AZ (United States); Conrow, T.; Cutri, R. M.; Dailey, J.; Fowler, J.; Jarrett, T. [Infrared Processing and Analysis Center, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Spahr, T. [Minor Planet Center, Harvard-Smithsonian Center for Astrophysics, 60 Garden Street MS-18, Cambridge, MA 02138 (United States); Statler, T. [Astrophysical Institute, Ohio University (United States); Wright, E. L. [Department of Astronomy and Astrophysics, University of California Los Angeles, Los Angeles, CA (United States)

    2015-05-15

    We have carried out simulations to predict the performance of a new space-based telescopic survey operating at thermal infrared wavelengths that seeks to discover and characterize a large fraction of the potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. Two potential architectures for the survey were considered: one located at the Earth–Sun L1 Lagrange point, and one in a Venus-trailing orbit. A sample cadence was formulated and tested, allowing for the self-follow-up necessary for objects discovered in the daytime sky on Earth. Synthetic populations of NEAs with sizes as small as 140 m in effective spherical diameter were simulated using recent determinations of their physical and orbital properties. Estimates of the instrumental sensitivity, integration times, and slew speeds were included for both architectures assuming the properties of newly developed large-format 10 μm HgCdTe detector arrays capable of operating at ∼35 K. Our simulation included the creation of a preliminary version of a moving object processing pipeline suitable for operating on the trial cadence. We tested this pipeline on a simulated sky populated with astrophysical sources such as stars and galaxies extrapolated from Spitzer Space Telescope and Wide-field Infrared Explorer data, the catalog of known minor planets (including Main Belt asteroids, comets, Jovian Trojans, planets, etc.), and the synthetic NEA model. Trial orbits were computed for simulated position-time pairs extracted from the synthetic surveys to verify that the tested cadence would result in orbits suitable for recovering objects at a later time. Our results indicate that the Earth–Sun L1 and Venus-trailing surveys achieve similar levels of integral completeness for potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 140 m; placing the telescope in an interior orbit does not yield an improvement in discovery rates. This work serves as a necessary first step for the detailed planning of a next-generation NEA survey.

  19. SPOKES: an End-to-End Simulation Facility for Spectroscopic Cosmological Surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Nord, B; Refregier, A; Gamper, La; Gamper, Lu; Hambrecht, B; Chang, C; Forero-Romero, J E; Serrano, S; Cunha, C; Coles, O; Nicola, A; Busha, M; Bauer, A; Saunders, W; Jouvel, S; Kirk, D; Wechsler, R

    2016-01-01

    The nature of dark matter, dark energy and large-scale gravity pose some of the most pressing questions in cosmology today. These fundamental questions require highly precise measurements, and a number of wide-field spectroscopic survey instruments are being designed to meet this requirement. A key component in these experiments is the development of a simulation tool to forecast science performance, define requirement flow-downs, optimize implementation, demonstrate feasibility, and prepare for exploitation. We present SPOKES (SPectrOscopic KEn Simulation), an end-to-end simulation facility for spectroscopic cosmological surveys designed to address this challenge. SPOKES is based on an integrated infrastructure, modular function organization, coherent data handling and fast data access. These key features allow reproducibility of pipeline runs, enable ease of use and provide flexibility to update functions within the pipeline. The cyclic nature of the pipeline offers the possibility to make the science outpu...

  20. Survey Simulations of an New Near-Earth Asteroid Detection System

    CERN Document Server

    Mainzer, A; Bauer, J; Conrow, T; Cutri, R M; Dailey, J; Fowler, J; Giorgini, J; Jarrett, T; Masiero, J; Spahr, T; Statler, T; Wright, E L

    2015-01-01

    We have carried out simulations to predict the performance of a new space-based telescopic survey operating at thermal infrared wavelengths that seeks to discover and characterize a large fraction of the potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. Two potential architectures for the survey were considered: one located at the Earth-Sun L1 Lagrange point, and one in a Venus-trailing orbit. A sample cadence was formulated and tested, allowing for the self-follow-up necessary for objects discovered in the daytime sky on Earth. Synthetic populations of NEAs with sizes >=140 m in effective spherical diameter were simulated using recent determinations of their physical and orbital properties. Estimates of the instrumental sensitivity, integration times, and slew speeds were included for both architectures assuming the properties of new large-format 10 um detector arrays capable of operating at ~35 K. Our simulation included the creation of a preliminary version of a moving object processing pipeline ...

  1. Simulation of Astronomical Images from Optical Survey Telescopes using a Comprehensive Photon Monte Carlo Approach

    CERN Document Server

    Peterson, J R; Kahn, S M; Rasmussen, A P; Peng, E; Ahmad, Z; Bankert, J; Chang, C; Claver, C; Gilmore, D K; Grace, E; Hannel, M; Hodge, M; Lorenz, S; Lupu, A; Meert, A; Nagarajan, S; Todd, N; Winans, A; Young, M

    2015-01-01

    We present a comprehensive methodology for the simulation of astronomical images from optical survey telescopes. We use a photon Monte Carlo approach to construct images by sampling photons from models of astronomical source populations, and then simulating those photons through the system as they interact with the atmosphere, telescope, and camera. We demonstrate that all physical effects for optical light that determine the shapes, locations, and brightnesses of individual stars and galaxies can be accurately represented in this formalism. By using large scale grid computing, modern processors, and an efficient implementation that can produce 400,000 photons/second, we demonstrate that even very large optical surveys can be now be simulated. We demonstrate that we are able to: 1) construct kilometer scale phase screens necessary for wide-field telescopes, 2) reproduce atmospheric point-spread-function moments using a fast novel hybrid geometric/Fourier technique for non-diffraction limited telescopes, 3) ac...

  2. Cosmology with AGN dust time lags-simulating the new VEILS survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hönig, S. F.; Watson, D.; Kishimoto, M.; Gandhi, P.; Goad, M.; Horne, K.; Shankar, F.; Banerji, M.; Boulderstone, B.; Jarvis, M.; Smith, M.; Sullivan, M.

    2017-01-01

    The time lag between optical and near-infrared continuum emission in active galactic nuclei (AGN) shows a tight correlation with luminosity and has been proposed as a standardizable candle for cosmology. In this paper, we explore the use of these AGN hot-dust time lags for cosmological model fitting under the constraints of the new VISTA Extragalactic Infrared Legacy Survey (VEILS). This new survey will target a 9 deg2 field observed in J and Ks band with a 14-d cadence and will run for 3 yr. The same area will be covered simultaneously in the optical griz bands by the Dark Energy Survey, providing complementary time-domain optical data. We perform realistic simulations of the survey setup, showing that we expect to recover dust time lags for about 450 objects out of a total of 1350 optical type 1 AGN, spanning a redshift range of 0.1 4.

  3. Cosmology with AGN dust time lags -- Simulating the new VEILS survey

    CERN Document Server

    Hönig, S F; Kishimoto, M; Gandhi, P; Goad, M; Horne, K; Shankar, F; Banerji, M; Boulderstone, B; Jarvis, M; Smith, M; Sullivan, M

    2016-01-01

    The time lag between optical and near-infrared continuum emission in active galactic nuclei (AGN) shows a tight correlation with luminosity and has been proposed as a standardisable candle for cosmology. In this paper, we explore the use of these AGN hot-dust time lags for cosmological model fitting under the constraints of the new VISTA Extragalactic Infrared Legacy Survey VEILS. This new survey will target a 9 deg^2 field observed in J- and Ks-band with a 14-day cadence and will run for three years. The same area will be covered simultaneously in the optical griz bands by the Dark Energy Survey, providing complementary time-domain optical data. We perform realistic simulations of the survey setup, showing that we expect to recover dust time lags for about 450 objects out of a total of 1350 optical type 1 AGN, spanning a redshift range of 0.1 4.

  4. Laparoscopic simulation training in gynaecology: Current provision and staff attitudes - a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Christy; Fox, Robert; Hinshaw, Kim; Draycott, Timothy J; James, Mark

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to explore current provision of laparoscopic simulation training, and to determine attitudes of trainers and trainees to the role of simulators in surgical training across the UK. An anonymous cross-sectional survey with cluster sampling was developed and circulated. All Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG) Training Programme Directors (TPD), College Tutors (RCT) and Trainee representatives (TR) across the UK were invited to participate. One hundred and ninety-six obstetricians and gynaecologists participated. Sixty-three percent of hospitals had at least one box trainer, and 14.6% had least one virtual-reality simulator. Only 9.3% and 3.6% stated that trainees used a structured curriculum on box and virtual-reality simulators, respectively. Respondents working in a Large/Teaching hospital (p = 0.008) were more likely to agree that simulators enhance surgical training. Eighty-nine percent agreed that simulators improve the quality of training, and should be mandatory or desirable for junior trainees. Consultants (p = 0.003) and respondents over 40 years (p = 0.011) were more likely to hold that a simulation test should be undertaken before live operation. Our data demonstrated, therefore, that availability of laparoscopic simulators is inconsistent, with limited use of mandatory structured curricula. In contrast, both trainers and trainees recognise a need for greater use of laparoscopic simulation for surgical training.

  5. The VLT LBG Redshift Survey - IV. Gas and galaxies at z~3 in observations and simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Tummuangpak, P; Bielby, R; Crighton, N H M; Francke, H; Infante, L; Theuns, T

    2013-01-01

    We use observations and simulations to study the relationship between star-forming galaxies and the IGM at z~3. We use redshift data taken from the VLT LBG Redshift Survey (VLRS) and Keck surveys in fields centred on bright background QSOs, whilst the simulated data is taken from GIMIC. In the simulations, we find that the dominant peculiar velocities are in the form of large-scale coherent motions of gas and galaxies. Gravitational infall of galaxies towards each other is also seen, consistent with linear theory. Peculiar velocity pairs with separations smaller than 1Mpc have a smaller dispersion and better explain the simulated z-space correlations. Lyman-alpha auto- and cross-correlations in the simulations appear to show smaller infall than implied by the expected beta_Lyman-alpha ~ 1.3. Galaxy-wide outflows implemented in the simulations may contribute to this effect. When velocity errors are taken into account, the LBG correlation function prefers the high clustering amplitude shown by higher mass galax...

  6. A Survey of the Use of the Discrete-event Simulation in Manufacturing Industry

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Arne; Ingemansson; Gunnar; S; Bolmsj; Ulrika; Harlin

    2002-01-01

    In this work, a survey of companies has been produc ed from a questionnaire and in-depth inter-views. The aimof the paper is to give a current view of the use of DES (Discrete- Event Simulation) in the indust ry. The companies have been selected in a wide range in e.g. size, capital turno ver and employees. The survey was restricted to Sweden, although the results may be applicable to other countries with similar industrial structure. Some of the companies investigated are also multinational with branc...

  7. U.S. GEOLOGICAL SURVEY PROGRAMS AND INVESTIGATIONS RELATED TO SOIL AND WATER CONSERVATION

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    W.R.OSTERKAMP; J.R.GRAY

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has a rich tradition of collecting hydrologic data, especially for fluxes of water and suspended sediment, that provide a foundation for studies of soil and water conservation.Applied and basic research has included investigations of the effects of land use on rangelands,croplands, and forests; hazards mapping; derivation of flood and drought frequency, and other statistics related to streamflow and reservoir storage; development and application of models of rainfall-runoff relations, chemical quality, and sediment movement; and studies of the interactive processes of overland and channel flow with vegetation. Networks of streamgaging stations and (or) sampling sites within numerous drainage basins are yielding information that extends databases and enhances the ability to use those data for interpretive studies.

  8. A simulation study of acoustic-assisted tracking of whales for mark-recapture surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Peel, David; Miller, Brian S; Kelly, Natalie; Dawson, Steve; Slooten, Elisabeth; Double, Michael C

    2014-01-01

    Collecting enough data to obtain reasonable abundance estimates of whales is often difficult, particularly when studying rare species. Passive acoustics can be used to detect whale sounds and are increasingly used to estimate whale abundance. Much of the existing effort centres on the use of acoustics to estimate abundance directly, e.g. analysing detections in a distance sampling framework. Here, we focus on acoustics as a tool incorporated within mark-recapture surveys. In this context, acoustic tools are used to detect and track whales, which are then photographed or biopsied to provide data for mark-recapture analyses. The purpose of incorporating acoustics is to increase the encounter rate beyond using visual searching only. While this general approach is not new, its utility is rarely quantified. This paper predicts the "acoustically-assisted" encounter rate using a discrete-time individual-based simulation of whales and survey vessel. We validate the simulation framework using existing data from studies of sperm whales. We then use the framework to predict potential encounter rates in a study of Antarctic blue whales. We also investigate the effects of a number of the key parameters on encounter rate. Mean encounter rates from the simulation of sperm whales matched well with empirical data. Variance of encounter rate, however, was underestimated. The simulation of Antarctic blue whales found that passive acoustics should provide a 1.7-3.0 fold increase in encounter rate over visual-only methods. Encounter rate was most sensitive to acoustic detection range, followed by vocalisation rate. During survey planning and design, some indication of the relationship between expected sample size and effort is paramount; this simulation framework can be used to predict encounter rates and establish this relationship. For a case in point, the simulation framework indicates unequivocally that real-time acoustic tracking should be considered for quantifying the abundance

  9. A simulation study of acoustic-assisted tracking of whales for mark-recapture surveys.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David Peel

    Full Text Available Collecting enough data to obtain reasonable abundance estimates of whales is often difficult, particularly when studying rare species. Passive acoustics can be used to detect whale sounds and are increasingly used to estimate whale abundance. Much of the existing effort centres on the use of acoustics to estimate abundance directly, e.g. analysing detections in a distance sampling framework. Here, we focus on acoustics as a tool incorporated within mark-recapture surveys. In this context, acoustic tools are used to detect and track whales, which are then photographed or biopsied to provide data for mark-recapture analyses. The purpose of incorporating acoustics is to increase the encounter rate beyond using visual searching only. While this general approach is not new, its utility is rarely quantified. This paper predicts the "acoustically-assisted" encounter rate using a discrete-time individual-based simulation of whales and survey vessel. We validate the simulation framework using existing data from studies of sperm whales. We then use the framework to predict potential encounter rates in a study of Antarctic blue whales. We also investigate the effects of a number of the key parameters on encounter rate. Mean encounter rates from the simulation of sperm whales matched well with empirical data. Variance of encounter rate, however, was underestimated. The simulation of Antarctic blue whales found that passive acoustics should provide a 1.7-3.0 fold increase in encounter rate over visual-only methods. Encounter rate was most sensitive to acoustic detection range, followed by vocalisation rate. During survey planning and design, some indication of the relationship between expected sample size and effort is paramount; this simulation framework can be used to predict encounter rates and establish this relationship. For a case in point, the simulation framework indicates unequivocally that real-time acoustic tracking should be considered for

  10. Hydrograph simulation models of the Hillsborough and Alafia Rivers, Florida: a preliminary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, James F.

    1972-01-01

    Mathematical (digital) models that simulate flood hydrographs from rainfall records have been developed for the following gaging stations in the Hillsborough and Alafia River basins of west-central Florida: Hillsborough River near Tampa, Alafia River at Lithia, and north Prong Alafia River near Keysville. These models, which were developed from historical streamflow and and rainfall records, are based on rainfall-runoff and unit-hydrograph procedures involving an arbitrary separation of the flood hydrograph. These models assume the flood hydrograph to be composed of only two flow components, direct (storm) runoff, and base flow. Expressions describing these two flow components are derived from streamflow and rainfall records and are combined analytically to form algorithms (models), which are programmed for processing on a digital computing system. Most Hillsborough and Alafia River flood discharges can be simulated with expected relative errors less than or equal to 30 percent and flood peaks can be simulated with average relative errors less than 15 percent. Because of the inadequate rainfall network that is used in obtaining input data for the North Prong Alafia River model, simulated peaks are frequently in error by more than 40 percent, particularly for storms having highly variable areal rainfall distribution. Simulation errors are the result of rainfall sample errors and, to a lesser extent, model inadequacy. Data errors associated with the determination of mean basin precipitation are the result of the small number and poor areal distribution of rainfall stations available for use in the study. Model inadequacy, however, is attributed to the basic underlying theory, particularly the rainfall-runoff relation. These models broaden and enhance existing water-management capabilities within these basins by allowing the establishment and implementation of programs providing for continued development in these areas. Specifically, the models serve not only as a

  11. Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  12. Combining Users' Activity Survey and Simulators to Evaluate Human Activity Recognition Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azkune, Gorka; Almeida, Aitor; López-de-Ipiña, Diego; Chen, Liming

    2015-01-01

    Evaluating human activity recognition systems usually implies following expensive and time-consuming methodologies, where experiments with humans are run with the consequent ethical and legal issues. We propose a novel evaluation methodology to overcome the enumerated problems, which is based on surveys for users and a synthetic dataset generator tool. Surveys allow capturing how different users perform activities of daily living, while the synthetic dataset generator is used to create properly labelled activity datasets modelled with the information extracted from surveys. Important aspects, such as sensor noise, varying time lapses and user erratic behaviour, can also be simulated using the tool. The proposed methodology is shown to have very important advantages that allow researchers to carry out their work more efficiently. To evaluate the approach, a synthetic dataset generated following the proposed methodology is compared to a real dataset computing the similarity between sensor occurrence frequencies. It is concluded that the similarity between both datasets is more than significant. PMID:25856329

  13. Survey on Simulation for Mobile Ad-Hoc Communication for Disaster Scenarios

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Erika Rosas; Nicolas Hidalgo; Veronica Gil-Costa; Carolina Bonacic; Mauricio Marin; Hermes Senger; Luciana Arantes; Cesar Marcondes; Olivier Marin

    2016-01-01

    Mobile ad-hoc communication is a demonstrated solution to mitigate the impact of infrastructure failures during large-scale disasters. A very complex issue in this domain is the design validation of software applications that support decision-making and communication during natural disasters. Such disasters are irreproducible, highly unpredictable, and impossible to scale down, and thus extensive assessments cannot be led in situ. In this context, simulation constitutes the best approach towards the testing of software solutions for natural disaster responses. The present survey reviews mobility models, ad-hoc network architectures, routing protocols and network simulators. Our aim is to provide guidelines for software developers with regards to the performance evaluation of their applications by means of simulation.

  14. Simulations of the WFIRST Supernova Survey and Forecasts of Cosmological Constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hounsell, R. [Illinois U., Urbana, Astron. Dept.; Scolnic, D. [Chicago U., KICP; Foley, R. J. [UC, Santa Cruz; Kessler, R. [Chicago U., KICP; Miranda, V. [Pennsylvania U.; Avelino, A. [Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.; Bohlin, R. C. [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci.; Filippenko, A. V. [UC, Berkeley; Frieman, J. [Fermilab; Jha, S. W. [Rutgers U., Piscataway; Kelly, P. L. [UC, Berkeley; Kirshner, R. P. [Xerox, Palo Alto; Mandel, K. [Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.; Rest, A. [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci.; Riess, A. G. [Johns Hopkins U.; Rodney, S. A. [South Carolina U.; Strolger, L. [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci.

    2017-02-06

    The Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) was the highest rankedlarge space-based mission of the 2010 New Worlds, New Horizons decadal survey.It is now a NASA mission in formulation with a planned launch in themid-2020's. A primary mission objective is to precisely constrain the nature ofdark energy through multiple probes, including Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia).Here, we present the first realistic simulations of the WFIRST SN survey basedon current hardware specifications and using open-source tools. We simulate SNlight curves and spectra as viewed by the WFIRST wide-field channel (WFC)imager and integral field channel (IFC) spectrometer, respectively. We examine11 survey strategies with different time allocations between the WFC and IFC,two of which are based upon the strategy described by the WFIRST ScienceDefinition Team, which measures SN distances exclusively from IFC data. Wepropagate statistical and, crucially, systematic uncertainties to predict thedark energy task force figure of merit (DETF FoM) for each strategy. Theincrease in FoM values with SN search area is limited by the overhead times foreach exposure. For IFC-focused strategies the largest individual systematicuncertainty is the wavelength-dependent calibration uncertainty, whereas forWFC-focused strategies, it is the intrinsic scatter uncertainty. We find thatthe best IFC-focused and WFC-exclusive strategies have comparable FoM values.Even without improvements to other cosmological probes, the WFIRST SN surveyhas the potential to increase the FoM by more than an order of magnitude fromthe current values. Although the survey strategies presented here have not beenfully optimized, these initial investigations are an important step in thedevelopment of the final hardware design and implementation of the WFIRSTmission.

  15. SIMULATION OF ASTRONOMICAL IMAGES FROM OPTICAL SURVEY TELESCOPES USING A COMPREHENSIVE PHOTON MONTE CARLO APPROACH

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Peterson, J. R.; Peng, E.; Ahmad, Z.; Bankert, J.; Grace, E.; Hannel, M.; Hodge, M.; Lorenz, S.; Lupu, A.; Meert, A.; Nagarajan, S.; Todd, N.; Winans, A.; Young, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Purdue University, West Lafayette, IN 47907 (United States); Jernigan, J. G. [Space Sciences Laboratory, University of California, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); Kahn, S. M.; Rasmussen, A. P.; Chang, C.; Gilmore, D. K. [Kavli Institute for Particle Astrophysics and Cosmology, Stanford University, Stanford, CA 94305 (United States); Claver, C., E-mail: peters11@purdue.edu [National Optical Astronomy Observatory, Tucson, AZ 85719 (United States)

    2015-05-15

    We present a comprehensive methodology for the simulation of astronomical images from optical survey telescopes. We use a photon Monte Carlo approach to construct images by sampling photons from models of astronomical source populations, and then simulating those photons through the system as they interact with the atmosphere, telescope, and camera. We demonstrate that all physical effects for optical light that determine the shapes, locations, and brightnesses of individual stars and galaxies can be accurately represented in this formalism. By using large scale grid computing, modern processors, and an efficient implementation that can produce 400,000 photons s{sup −1}, we demonstrate that even very large optical surveys can be now be simulated. We demonstrate that we are able to (1) construct kilometer scale phase screens necessary for wide-field telescopes, (2) reproduce atmospheric point-spread function moments using a fast novel hybrid geometric/Fourier technique for non-diffraction limited telescopes, (3) accurately reproduce the expected spot diagrams for complex aspheric optical designs, and (4) recover system effective area predicted from analytic photometry integrals. This new code, the Photon Simulator (PhoSim), is publicly available. We have implemented the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope design, and it can be extended to other telescopes. We expect that because of the comprehensive physics implemented in PhoSim, it will be used by the community to plan future observations, interpret detailed existing observations, and quantify systematics related to various astronomical measurements. Future development and validation by comparisons with real data will continue to improve the fidelity and usability of the code.

  16. Use of simulation-based education: a national survey of pediatric clerkship directors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vukin, Elizabeth; Greenberg, Robert; Auerbach, Marc; Chang, Lucy; Scotten, Mitzi; Tenney-Soeiro, Rebecca; Trainor, Jennifer; Dudas, Robert

    2014-01-01

    To document the prevalence of simulation-based education (SBE) for third- and fourth-year medical students; to determine the perceived importance of SBE; to characterize the barriers associated with establishing SBE. A 27-item survey regarding simulation was distributed to members of the Council on Medical Student Education in Pediatrics (COMSEP) as part of a larger survey in 2012. Seventy-one (48%) of 147 clerkship directors (CD) at COMSEP institutions responded to the survey questions regarding the use of SBE. Eighty-nine percent (63 of 71) of CDs reported use of SBE in some form: 27% of those programs (17 of 63) reported only the use of the online-based Computer-Assisted Learning in Pediatrics Program, and 73% (46 of 63) reported usage of other SBE modalities. Fifty-four percent of CDs (38 of 71) agreed that SBE is necessary to meet the requirements of the Liaison Committee on Medical Education (LCME). Multiple barriers were reported in initiating and implementing an SBE program. SBE is commonly used for instruction during pediatric undergraduate medical education in North American medical schools. Barriers to the use of SBE remain despite the perception that it is needed to meet requirements of the LCME. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  17. MODFLOW-2000 model scenarios simulating proposed groundwater pumpage near Monocks Corner, South Carolina: U.S. Geological Survey data release

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — An existing three-dimensional model (MODFLOW-2000) by Petkewich and Campbell was modified to simulate potential changes in groundwater-level conditions caused by...

  18. Forecasts for the WFIRST High Latitude Survey using the BLUETIDES Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Waters, Dacen; Di Matteo, Tiziana; Feng, Yu; Wilkins, Stephen M.; Croft, Rupert A. C.

    2016-08-01

    We use the BLUETIDES simulation to predict the properties of the high-z galaxy and active galactic nuclei (AGN) populations for the planned 2200deg2 Wide-Field Infrared Survey Telescope's (WFIRST) High Latitude Survey (HLS). BLUETIDES is a cosmological hydrodynamic simulation, which incorporates a variety of baryon physics in a (400h-1Mpc)3 volume evolved to z = 8 with 0.7 trillion particles. The galaxy luminosity functions in the simulation show good agreement with all the current observational constraints (up to z = 11) and predicts an enhanced number of UV bright galaxies. At the proposed depth of the HLS (mUV luminosity function. At z = 8, galaxies in the mock HLS have specific star formation rates of ˜10Gyr-1 and ages of ˜80Myr (both evolving linearly with redshift) and a non-evolving mass-metallicity relation. BLUETIDES also predicts ˜104 AGN in WFIRST HLS from z = 8 out to z ˜ 14. These AGN host black holes of M ˜ 106 - 108M⊙ accreting close to their Eddington luminosity. Galaxies and AGN have host halo masses of Mhalo ˜ 1011 - 12M⊙ and a linear bias b ≈ 13 - 20. Given the expected galaxy space densities, their high bias and large volume probed we speculate that it may be feasible for WFIRST HLS detect the Baryon Acoustic Oscillation peak in the galaxy power spectrum out to z = 8 - 9.

  19. Cosmology with AGN dust time lags - Simulating the new VEILS survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hönig, S. F.; Watson, D.; Kishimoto, M.; Gandhi, P.; Goad, M.; Horne, K.; Shankar, F.; Banerji, M.; Boulderstone, B.; Jarvis, M.; Smith, M.; Sullivan, M.

    2016-10-01

    The time lag between optical and near-infrared continuum emission in active galactic nuclei (AGN) shows a tight correlation with luminosity and has been proposed as a standardisable candle for cosmology. In this paper, we explore the use of these AGN hot-dust time lags for cosmological model fitting under the constraints of the new VISTA Extragalactic Infrared Legacy Survey VEILS. This new survey will target a 9 deg2 field observed in J- and Ks-band with a 14-day cadence and will run for three years. The same area will be covered simultaneously in the optical griz bands by the Dark Energy Survey, providing complementary time-domain optical data. We perform realistic simulations of the survey setup, showing that we expect to recover dust time lags for about 450 objects out of a total of 1350 optical type 1 AGN, spanning a redshift range of 0.1 AGN as well as in the normalisation of the lag-luminosity relation, we are able to constrain Ω _Λ in ΛCDM with similar accuracy as current supernova samples. We discuss the benefits of combining AGN and supernovae for cosmology and connect the present work to future attempts to reach out to redshifts of z > 4.

  20. Needs assessment for simulation training in neuroendoscopy: a Canadian national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haji, Faizal A; Dubrowski, Adam; Drake, James; de Ribaupierre, Sandrine

    2013-02-01

    In recent years, dramatic changes in surgical education have increased interest in simulation-based training for complex surgical skills. This is particularly true for endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV), given the potential for serious intraoperative errors arising from surgical inexperience. However, prior to simulator development, a thorough assessment of training needs is essential to ensure development of educationally relevant platforms. The purpose of this study was to conduct a national needs assessment addressing specific goals of instruction, to guide development of simulation platforms, training curricula, and assessment metrics for ETV. Canadian neurosurgeons performing ETV were invited to participate in a structured online questionnaire regarding the procedural steps for ETV, the frequency and significance of intraoperative errors committed while learning the technique, and simulation training modules of greatest potential educational benefit. Descriptive data analysis was completed for both quantitative and qualitative responses. Thirty-two (55.2%) of 58 surgeons completed the survey. All believed that virtual reality simulation training for ETV would be a valuable addition to clinical training. Selection of ventriculostomy site, navigation within the ventricles, and performance of the ventriculostomy ranked as the most important steps to simulate. Technically inadequate ventriculostomy and inappropriate fenestration site selection were ranked as the most frequent/significant errors. A standard ETV module was thought to be most beneficial for resident training. To inform the development of a simulation-based training program for ETV, the authors have conducted a national needs assessment. The results provide valuable insight to inform key design elements necessary to construct an educationally relevant device and educational program.

  1. HACC: Simulating sky surveys on state-of-the-art supercomputing architectures

    Science.gov (United States)

    Habib, Salman; Pope, Adrian; Finkel, Hal; Frontiere, Nicholas; Heitmann, Katrin; Daniel, David; Fasel, Patricia; Morozov, Vitali; Zagaris, George; Peterka, Tom; Vishwanath, Venkatram; Lukić, Zarija; Sehrish, Saba; Liao, Wei-keng

    2016-01-01

    Current and future surveys of large-scale cosmic structure are associated with a massive and complex datastream to study, characterize, and ultimately understand the physics behind the two major components of the 'Dark Universe', dark energy and dark matter. In addition, the surveys also probe primordial perturbations and carry out fundamental measurements, such as determining the sum of neutrino masses. Large-scale simulations of structure formation in the Universe play a critical role in the interpretation of the data and extraction of the physics of interest. Just as survey instruments continue to grow in size and complexity, so do the supercomputers that enable these simulations. Here we report on HACC (Hardware/Hybrid Accelerated Cosmology Code), a recently developed and evolving cosmology N-body code framework, designed to run efficiently on diverse computing architectures and to scale to millions of cores and beyond. HACC can run on all current supercomputer architectures and supports a variety of programming models and algorithms. It has been demonstrated at scale on Cell- and GPU-accelerated systems, standard multi-core node clusters, and Blue Gene systems. HACC's design allows for ease of portability, and at the same time, high levels of sustained performance on the fastest supercomputers available. We present a description of the design philosophy of HACC, the underlying algorithms and code structure, and outline implementation details for several specific architectures. We show selected accuracy and performance results from some of the largest high resolution cosmological simulations so far performed, including benchmarks evolving more than 3.6 trillion particles.

  2. Superclusters of galaxies from the 2dF redshift survey. 2. Comparison with simulations

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Einasto, Jaan; Einasto, M.; Saar, E.; Tago, E.; Liivamagi, L.J.; Joeveer, M.J; Suhhonenko, I.; Hutsi, G.; /Tartu Observ.; Jaaniste, J.; /Estonian U.; Heinamaki, P.; /Tuorla; Muller, V.; Knebe, A.; /Potsdam, Astrophys. Inst.; Tucker, D.; /Fermilab

    2006-04-01

    We investigate properties of superclusters of galaxies found on the basis of the 2dF Galaxy Redshift Survey, and compare them with properties of superclusters from the Millennium Simulation.We study the dependence of various characteristics of superclusters on their distance from the observer, on their total luminosity, and on their multiplicity. The multiplicity is defined by the number of Density Field (DF) clusters in superclusters. Using the multiplicity we divide superclusters into four richness classes: poor, medium, rich and extremely rich.We show that superclusters are asymmetrical and have multi-branching filamentary structure, with the degree of asymmetry and filamentarity being higher for the more luminous and richer superclusters. The comparison of real superclusters with Millennium superclusters shows that most properties of simulated superclusters agree very well with real data, the main differences being in the luminosity and multiplicity distributions.

  3. End User Licence to Open Government Data? A Simulated Penetration Attack on Two Social Survey Datasets

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Elliot Mark

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available In the UK, the transparency agenda is forcing data stewardship organisations to review their dissemination policies and to consider whether to release data that is currently only available to a restricted community of researchers under licence as open data. Here we describe the results of a study providing evidence about the risks of such an approach via a simulated attack on two social survey datasets. This is also the first systematic attempt to simulate a jigsaw identification attack (one using a mashup of multiple data sources on an anonymised dataset. The information that we draw on is collected from multiple online data sources and purchasable commercial data. The results indicate that such an attack against anonymised end user licence (EUL datasets, if converted into open datasets, is possible and therefore we would recommend that penetration tests should be factored into any decision to make datasets (that are about people open.

  4. Simulation of a ground-layer adaptive optics system for the Kunlun Dark Universe Survey Telescope

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    Peng Jia; Sijiong Zhang

    2013-01-01

    Ground Layer Adaptive Optics (GLAO) is a recently developed technique extensively applied to ground-based telescopes,which mainly compensates for the wavefront errors induced by ground-layer turbulence to get an appropriate point spread function in a wide field of view.The compensation results mainly depend on the turbulence distribution.The atmospheric turbulence at Dome A in the Antarctic is mainly distributed below 15 meters,which is an ideal site for applications of GLAO.The GLAO system has been simulated for the Kunlun Dark Universe Survey Telescope,which will be set up at Dome A,and uses a rotating mirror to generate several laser guide stars and a wavefront sensor with a wide field of view to sequentially measure the wavefronts from different laser guide stars.The system is simulated on a computer and parameters of the system are given,which provide detailed information about the design of a practical GLAO system.

  5. Rip current evidence by hydrodynamic simulations, bathymetric surveys and UAV observation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Benassai, Guido; Aucelli, Pietro; Budillon, Giorgio; De Stefano, Massimo; Di Luccio, Diana; Di Paola, Gianluigi; Montella, Raffaele; Mucerino, Luigi; Sica, Mario; Pennetta, Micla

    2017-09-01

    The prediction of the formation, spacing and location of rip currents is a scientific challenge that can be achieved by means of different complementary methods. In this paper the analysis of numerical and experimental data, including RPAS (remotely piloted aircraft systems) observations, allowed us to detect the presence of rip currents and rip channels at the mouth of Sele River, in the Gulf of Salerno, southern Italy. The dataset used to analyze these phenomena consisted of two different bathymetric surveys, a detailed sediment analysis and a set of high-resolution wave numerical simulations, completed with Google EarthTM images and RPAS observations. The grain size trend analysis and the numerical simulations allowed us to identify the rip current occurrence, forced by topographically constrained channels incised on the seabed, which were compared with observations.

  6. Simulating Compact Elliptical Galaxy Formation by Tidal Stripping for Comparison to the RESOLVE Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ray, Christine; Snyder, Elaine M.; Kannappan, Sheila; Sinha, Manodeep; RESOLVE Team

    2016-01-01

    Observations of compact elliptical galaxies (cEs) have uncovered abnormally high velocity dispersions and surface brightnesses for objects of their mass. These properties indicate that they may be the tidally stripped remnants of larger disk galaxies. We test this tidal stripping scenario using N-body simulations of cE formation with the Gadget-2 code. We track the velocity dispersions of stellar particles within the half-light radius throughout our simulations, which allows us to compare our simulated galaxies with velocity dispersion data for cEs in the RESOLVE survey. We first consider initial conditions similar to published work, which report stripping of a large spiral galaxy (stellar mass ~ 10^11 solar masses) to cE size in a cluster potential. We find that the density of the disk galaxy is too high to allow it to lose particles to the less dense cluster. We argue that the initial position of the galaxy with respect to the cluster as well as the large size of the cluster particles in comparison to the size of the galaxy particles artificially heightened the stripping percentages reported in previous work. We hypothesize that only a dwarf galaxy with a shallower density profile can be stripped to cE size, and we present initial efforts to test this idea. We simulate a dwarf galaxy based on a real system in the RESOLVE survey, with stellar mass 10^9 solar masses and half-light radius 1.15 kpc. Within ~700 pc our dwarf is denser than our cluster, suggesting the stripped remnant should be close to the size of RESOLVE cEs. This radius contains approximately 13% of the total stellar mass of the galaxy, or ~2 x 10^8 solar masses. We therefore expect our stripped remnant to be at least this massive, although the impact parameter of the orbit will determine how much mass is actually removed. We discuss the position of our simulated galaxies compared to RESOLVE cEs in the velocity dispersion vs. mass plane. This research has been supported by National Science

  7. Investigation of biochar effects as a non-structural BMP on soil erosional properties using a rainfall simulator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khademalrasoul, Ataalah; Kuhn, Nikolaus J; Hu, Yaxian;

    runoff events. We hypothesized that erodibility is reduced in biochar-amended soils and tested this in controlled rainfall-runoff simulations. The specific objectives of our study were (1) to compare runoff and sediment generation between a biochar and an unamended control treatment on an arable sandy......, and plots had been harrowed and ploughed twice to a depth of 25 cm prior to sampling. In the laboratory soil samples from (0-20 cm) were analyzed for aggregate stability and soil organic carbon (SOC) content. Soil erosional properties were measured during 3.5 hour rainfall simulations using a round flume...... setup. Artificial rain was applied with a FullJet nozzle at a rate of 30 mm h-1. Biochar-amended soils showed significantly lower runoff and erosion rates compared to unamended soils, and correspondingly runoff coefficients in biochar-treated soils were lower than in control soils. Less SOC was eroded...

  8. Mass assembly of galaxies from the MASSIV survey and the MIRAGE simulation sample

    Science.gov (United States)

    Amram, Philippe

    2015-08-01

    The MIRAGE (Merging & isolated high-redshift AMR galaxies, Perret et al. 2014) sample has been built in order to understand the contribution of the merger processes to the mass assembly in the MASSIV (Mass Assembly Survey with SINFONI in VVDS, Contini et al. 2012) sample. It consists of a sample of idealized simulations based on the RAMSES code; the initial conditions were designed to reproduce the physical properties of the most gas-rich young galaxies. It is composed of simulations of mergers exploring the initial parameters of mass and orientation of the disks with a spatial resolution reaching 7 parsecs. We carry out a comparative study of the MASSIV kinematical data to a set of more than 4000 pseudo-observations at z=1.7 built from simulations of the MIRAGE sample to determine the ability to detect galaxy merger signatures under the observational conditions of the SINFONI instrument. The MIRAGE simulations show (i) an absence of star formation bursts in mergers of fragmented and turbulent disks, suggesting a saturation mechanism; (ii) that the gas rich clump merging mechanism is able to control the bulge mass growth, to erode the central profile of the dark matter halo and to drive massive gas outflows into the disk plane; (iii) irrespectively of the orbital configuration and of the mass ratio between the disks a new disk of gas is reconstructed quickly after the merger.

  9. A Survey of Stochastic Simulation and Optimization Methods in Signal Processing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pereyra, Marcelo; Schniter, Philip; Chouzenoux, Emilie; Pesquet, Jean-Christophe; Tourneret, Jean-Yves; Hero, Alfred O.; McLaughlin, Steve

    2016-03-01

    Modern signal processing (SP) methods rely very heavily on probability and statistics to solve challenging SP problems. SP methods are now expected to deal with ever more complex models, requiring ever more sophisticated computational inference techniques. This has driven the development of statistical SP methods based on stochastic simulation and optimization. Stochastic simulation and optimization algorithms are computationally intensive tools for performing statistical inference in models that are analytically intractable and beyond the scope of deterministic inference methods. They have been recently successfully applied to many difficult problems involving complex statistical models and sophisticated (often Bayesian) statistical inference techniques. This survey paper offers an introduction to stochastic simulation and optimization methods in signal and image processing. The paper addresses a variety of high-dimensional Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods as well as deterministic surrogate methods, such as variational Bayes, the Bethe approach, belief and expectation propagation and approximate message passing algorithms. It also discusses a range of optimization methods that have been adopted to solve stochastic problems, as well as stochastic methods for deterministic optimization. Subsequently, areas of overlap between simulation and optimization, in particular optimization-within-MCMC and MCMC-driven optimization are discussed.

  10. An Empirical Approach to Cosmological Galaxy Survey Simulation: Application to SPHEREx Low-Resolution Spectroscopy

    CERN Document Server

    Stickley, Nathaniel R; Masters, Daniel; de Putter, Roland; Doré, Olivier; Bock, Jamie

    2016-01-01

    Highly accurate models of the galaxy population over cosmological volumes are necessary in order to predict the performance of upcoming cosmological missions. We present a data-driven model of the galaxy population constrained by deep 0.1-8 $\\rm \\mu m$ imaging and spectroscopic data in the COSMOS survey, with the immediate goal of simulating the spectroscopic redshift performance of the proposed SPHEREx mission. SPHEREx will obtain over the full-sky $R\\sim41$ spectrophotometry at moderate spatial resolution ($\\sim6"$) over the wavelength range 0.75-4.18 $\\rm \\mu m$ and $R\\sim135$ over the wavelength range 4.18-5 $\\rm \\mu m$. We show that our simulation accurately reproduces a range of known galaxy properties, encapsulating the full complexity of the galaxy population and enables realistic, full end-to-end simulations to predict mission performance. Finally, we discuss potential applications of the simulation framework to future cosmology missions and give a description of released data products.

  11. State of Simulation in Healthcare Education: An Initial Survey in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zichen; Niu, Pengfei; Ji, Xiang; Sweet, Robert M

    2017-01-01

    In 2013, medical error was the third leading cause of death in the United States.(1) In China, as in the case with the United States, training and assessment are developing as a strategy to reduce the occurrence of such errors. The objective of this study was to assess the current state of the use of simulation-based training in Beijing and to explore the barriers to further development. This study included hospitals in Beijing accredited by the Standardized Residency Training (SRT) program. The questionnaire was designed online and distributed to the SRT management departments by e-mail or instant message. Thirty hospitals were invited to participate in this survey, and 15 responses were completed and met the inclusion criteria. Task trainers (15/15), full-scale mannequins (14/15), standardized patients (12/15), and virtual reality workstations (11/15) were the most common types of simulation modalities available for use. Among the given specialties for SRT, the availability of simulation courses was 2/2 for pediatric internal medicine, 1/1 for pediatric surgery, 10/11 for surgery, 11/14 for internal medicine, 7/9 for anesthesiology, 6/8 for emergency medicine, and 3/9 for obstetrics/gynecology. Of the 13 institutions with available simulation curricula, 12/13 had simulation focused on proficiency-based skill training, 11/13 had medical knowledge learning, 10/13 had skill competency assessment. The main targeted trainees in these hospitals were residents (or postgraduate residents) and medical students (or interns). The top 2 barriers were the shortage of sustainable financial resources (12/15) and advocacy from their institutional authorities (7/15). It is evident that there is a need for more development of training facilities, and for training the "trainers" and administrators. Financial funding, curricular design, and research seem to be crucial for building a long-term, sustainable, effective program.

  12. Application de la méthode des simulations croisées à l'analyse de tendances dans la relation pluie-débit à partir du modèle GR2M : cas du bassin versant du N'zi-Bandama (Côte d'Ivoire)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kouassi, Amani Michel; Bi, Tozan Michel N.'guessan; Kouamé, Koffi Fernand; Kouamé, Kassi Alexis; Okaingni, Jean-Claude; Biemi, Jean

    2012-05-01

    The study area is the N'zi watershed, sub-watershed of the Bandama River (Ivory Coast). The N'zi watershed is located between longitudes 3°49' and 5°22' West and latitudes 6°00' and 9°26' North and covers an area of 35,500 km2. This study aims to identify trends in the rainfall-runoff relationship by using a monthly conceptual model. The methodology has consisted on the one hand in highlighting the existence of interannual climate and hydrological variability by using the method of segmentation of Hubert, and on the other hand, in applying the crossed simulations method by using the GR2M model, over several 7-year sub-periods. The results of the application of the method of segmentation of Hubert have demonstrated the presence of a hydroclimatic variability in the N'zi watershed. The modifications of the climate and physical conditions of the flow resulted in a modification of the hydrological response of the watershed translated by a non-stationarity in the rainfall-runoff relation.

  13. Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N. C.

    2010-10-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are easy to implement. Computational speed is especially desirable for estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Confirming earlier work of Kavetski et al. (2003), we show here that the computational speed of first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods comes at a cost: for a case study with a spatially lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, it introduces artificial bimodality in the marginal posterior parameter distributions, which is not present in numerically accurate implementations of the same model. The resulting effects on MCMC simulation include (1) inconsistent estimates of posterior parameter and predictive distributions, (2) poor performance and slow convergence of the MCMC algorithm, and (3) unreliable convergence diagnosis using the Gelman-Rubin statistic. We studied several alternative numerical implementations to remedy these problems, including various adaptive-step finite difference schemes and an operator splitting method. Our results show that adaptive-step, second-order methods, based on either explicit finite differencing or operator splitting with analytical integration, provide the best alternative for accurate and efficient MCMC simulation. Fixed-step or adaptive-step implicit methods may also be used for increased accuracy, but they cannot match the efficiency of adaptive-step explicit finite differencing or operator splitting. Of the latter two, explicit finite differencing is more generally applicable and is preferred if the individual hydrologic flux laws cannot be integrated analytically, as the splitting method then loses its advantage.

  14. Estimating the Topography Before Volcanic Sector Collapses Using Tsunami Survey Data and Numerical Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yamanaka, Yusuke; Tanioka, Yuichiro

    2017-08-01

    Large sector collapses and landslides have the potential to cause significant disasters. Estimating the topography and conditions, such as volume, before the collapse is thus important for analyzing the behavior of moving collapsed material and hazard risks. This study considers three historical volcanic sector collapses in Japan that caused tsunamis: the collapses of the Komagatake Volcano in 1640, Oshima-Oshima Island in 1741, and Unzen-Mayuyama Volcano in 1792. Numerical simulations of the tsunamis generated by each event were first carried out based on assumed collapse scenarios. The primary objective of this study is to present conditions related to the topography before the events based on inverse models of the topography from those results and tsunami survey data. The Oshima-Oshima Tsunami, which is the subject of many previous studies, was first simulated to validate the model accuracy and evaluate how run-up heights changed during the simulation as the topographic conditions changed. The run-up height was especially sensitive to the collapsed volume and frictional acceleration affecting the collapsed material; however, the observed run-up heights could be reproduced with high accuracy using proper conditions of frictional acceleration for the scenarios, even if they were not exact. A minimum requirement for the collapsed volume to generate the observed run-up height was introduced and quantitatively evaluated using the results of numerical tsunami simulations. The minimum volumes of the collapses of the Komagatake and Unzen-Mayuyama volcanoes were estimated to be approximately 1.2 and 0.3 km3, respectively.

  15. Surface-water hydrology and runoff simulations for three basins in Pierce County, Washington

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mastin, M.C.

    1996-01-01

    The surface-water hydrology in Clear, Clarks, and Clover Creek Basins in central Pierce County, Washington, is described with a conceptual model of the runoff processes and then simulated with the Hydrological Simulation Program-FORTRAN (HSPF), a continuous, deterministic hydrologic model. The study area is currently undergoing a rapid conversion of rural, undeveloped land to urban and suburban land that often changes the flow characteristics of the streams that drain these lands. The complex interactions of land cover, climate, soils, topography, channel characteristics, and ground- water flow patterns determine the surface-water hydrology of the study area and require a complex numerical model to assess the impact of urbanization on streamflows. The U.S. Geological Survey completed this investigation in cooperation with the Storm Drainage and Surface Water Management Utility within the Pierce County Department of Public Works to describe the important rainfall-runoff processes within the study area and to develop a simulation model to be used as a tool to predict changes in runoff characteristics resulting from changes in land use. The conceptual model, a qualitative representation of the study basins, links the physical characteristics to the runoff process of the study basins. The model incorporates 11 generalizations identified by the investigation, eight of which describe runoff from hillslopes, and three that account for the effects of channel characteristics and ground-water flow patterns on runoff. Stream discharge was measured at 28 sites and precipitation was measured at six sites for 3 years in two overlapping phases during the period of October 1989 through September 1992 to calibrate and validate the simulation model. Comparison of rainfall data from October 1989 through September 1992 shows the data-collection period beginning with 2 wet water years followed by the relatively dry 1992 water year. Runoff was simulated with two basin models-the Clover

  16. Large Scale Structures in the Las Campanas Redshift Survey and in Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Müller, V; Retzlaff, J; Turchaninov, V I

    1998-01-01

    The large supercluster structures obvious in recent galaxy redshift surveys are quantified using an one-dimensional cluster analysis (core sampling) and a three-dimensional cluster analysis based on the minimal spanning tree. The comparison with the LCRS reveals promising stable results. At a mean overdensity of about ten, the supercluster systems form huge wall-like structures comprising about 40% of all galaxies. The overdense clusters have a low mean transverse velocity dispersion of about 400 km/s, i.e. they look quite narrow in redshift space. We performed N-body simulations with large box sizes for six cosmological scenarios. The quantitative analysis shows that the observed structures can be understood best in low density models with $Ømega_m

  17. Large Scale Structures in the Las Campanas Redshift Survey and in Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Müller, V.; Doroshkevich, A. G.; Retzlaff, J.; Turchaninov, V.

    1999-06-01

    The large supercluster structures obvious in recent galaxy redshift surveys are quantified using an one-dimensional cluster analysis (core sampling) and a three-dimensional cluster analysis based on the minimal spanning tree. The comparison with the LCRS reveals promising stable results. At a mean overdensity of about ten, the supercluster systems form huge wall-like structures comprising about 40% of all galaxies. The overdense clusters have a low mean transverse velocity dispersion of about 400 km/s, i.e. they look quite narrow in redshift space. We performed N-body simulations with large box sizes for six cosmological scenarios. The quantitative analysis shows that the observed structures can be understood best in low density models with Ω_m <= 0.5 with or without a cosmological constant.

  18. Voids in the SDSS DR9: observations, simulations, and the impact of the survey mask

    CERN Document Server

    Sutter, P M; Wandelt, Benjamin D; Weinberg, David H; Warren, Michael S

    2013-01-01

    We present and study cosmic voids identified using the watershed void finder ZOBOZ in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 9, compare these voids to ones identified in mock catalogs, and assess the impact of the survey mask on void statistics such as number functions, ellipticity distributions, and radial density profiles. The nearly 1,000 identified voids span three volume-limited samples from redshift z=0.43 to 0.7. For comparison we use 98 of the publicly available 2LPT-based mock galaxy catalogs of Manera et al. (2012), and also generate our own mock catalogs by applying a Halo Occupation Distribution model to an N-body simulation. We find that the mask reduces the number density of voids at all scales by a factor of three and slightly skews the relative size distributions. This engenders an increase in the mean ellipticity by roughly 30%. However, we find that radial density profiles are largely robust to the effects of the mask. We see excellent agreement between the data and both mock catalogs, an...

  19. The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite: Simulations of planet detections and astrophysical false positives

    CERN Document Server

    Sullivan, Peter W; Berta-Thompson, Zachory K; Charbonneau, David; Deming, Drake; Dressing, Courtney D; Latham, David W; Levine, Alan M; McCullough, Peter R; Morton, Timothy; Ricker, George R; Vanderspek, Roland; Woods, Deborah

    2015-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is a NASA-sponsored Explorer mission that will perform a wide-field survey for planets that transit bright host stars. Here, we predict the properties of the transiting planets that TESS will detect along with the eclipsing binary stars that produce false-positive photometric signals. The predictions are based on Monte Carlo simulations of the nearby population of stars, occurrence rates of planets derived from Kepler, and models for the photometric performance and sky coverage of the TESS cameras. We expect that TESS will find approximately 1700 transiting planets from 200,000 pre-selected target stars. This includes 556 planets smaller than twice the size of Earth, of which 419 are hosted by M dwarf stars and 137 are hosted by FGK dwarfs. Approximately 130 of the R < 2 R_Earth planets will have host stars brighter than K = 9. Approximately 48 of the planets with R < 2 R_Earth lie within or near the habitable zone (0.2 < S/S_Earth < 2), and between...

  20. HIDE & SEEK: End-to-End Packages to Simulate and Process Radio Survey Data

    CERN Document Server

    Akeret, Joel; Chang, Chihway; Monstein, Christian; Amara, Adam; Refregier, Alexandre

    2016-01-01

    As several large radio surveys begin operation within the coming decade, a wealth of radio data will become available and provide a new window to the Universe. In order to fully exploit the potential of these data sets, it is important to understand the systematic effects associated with the instrument and the analysis pipeline. A common approach to tackle this is to forward-model the entire system - from the hardware to the analysis of the data products. For this purpose, we introduce two newly developed, open-source Python packages: the HI Data Emulator (HIDE) and the Signal Extraction and Emission Kartographer (SEEK) for simulating and processing radio survey data. HIDE forward-models the process of collecting astronomical radio signals in a single dish radio telescope instrument and outputs pixel-level time-ordered-data. SEEK processes the time-ordered-data, removes artifacts from Radio Frequency Interference (RFI), automatically applies flux calibration, and aims to recover the astronomical radio signal....

  1. Star/galaxy separation at faint magnitudes: Application to a simulated Dark Energy Survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soumagnac, M.T.; et al.

    2013-06-21

    We address the problem of separating stars from galaxies in future large photometric surveys. We focus our analysis on simulations of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). In the first part of the paper, we derive the science requirements on star/galaxy separation, for measurement of the cosmological parameters with the Gravitational Weak Lensing and Large Scale Structure probes. These requirements are dictated by the need to control both the statistical and systematic errors on the cosmological parameters, and by Point Spread Function calibration. We formulate the requirements in terms of the completeness and purity provided by a given star/galaxy classifier. In order to achieve these requirements at faint magnitudes, we propose a new method for star/galaxy separation in the second part of the paper. We first use Principal Component Analysis to outline the correlations between the objects parameters and extract from it the most relevant information. We then use the reduced set of parameters as input to an Artificial Neural Network. This multi-parameter approach improves upon purely morphometric classifiers (such as the classifier implemented in SExtractor), especially at faint magnitudes: it increases the purity by up to 20% for stars and by up to 12% for galaxies, at i-magnitude fainter than 23.

  2. Star/galaxy separation at faint magnitudes: application to a simulated Dark Energy Survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soumagnac, M. T.; Abdalla, F. B.; Lahav, O.; Kirk, D.; Sevilla, I.; Bertin, E.; Rowe, B. T. P.; Annis, J.; Busha, M. T.; Da Costa, L. N.; Frieman, J. A.; Gaztanaga, E.; Jarvis, M.; Lin, H.; Percival, W. J.; Santiago, B. X.; Sabiu, C. G.; Wechsler, R. H.; Wolz, L.; Yanny, B.

    2015-04-14

    We address the problem of separating stars from galaxies in future large photometric surveys. We focus our analysis on simulations of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). In the first part of the paper, we derive the science requirements on star/galaxy separation, for measurement of the cosmological parameters with the gravitational weak lensing and large-scale structure probes. These requirements are dictated by the need to control both the statistical and systematic errors on the cosmological parameters, and by point spread function calibration. We formulate the requirements in terms of the completeness and purity provided by a given star/galaxy classifier. In order to achieve these requirements at faint magnitudes, we propose a new method for star/galaxy separation in the second part of the paper. We first use principal component analysis to outline the correlations between the objects parameters and extract from it the most relevant information. We then use the reduced set of parameters as input to an Artificial Neural Network. This multiparameter approach improves upon purely morphometric classifiers (such as the classifier implemented in SExtractor), especially at faint magnitudes: it increases the purity by up to 20 per cent for stars and by up to 12 per cent for galaxies, at i-magnitude fainter than 23.

  3. A New Yield Simulator for Transiting Planets and False Positives: Application to the Next Generation Transit Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Günther, Maximilian N; Demory, Brice-Olivier; Bouchy, Francois

    2016-01-01

    We present a yield simulator to predict the number and characteristics of planets, false positives and false alarms in transit surveys. The simulator is based on a galactic model and the planet occurrence rates measured by the Kepler mission. It takes into account the observation window function and measured noise levels of the investigated survey. Additionally, it includes vetting criteria to identify false positives. We apply this simulator to the Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS), a wide-field survey designed to detect transiting Neptune-sized exoplanets. We find that red noise is the main limitation of NGTS up to 14th magnitude, and that its obtained level determines the expected yield. Assuming a red noise level of 1 mmag, the simulation predicts the following for a four-year survey: 4+-3 Super-Earths, 19+-5 Small Neptunes, 16+-4 Large Neptunes, 55+-8 Saturn-sized planets and 150+-10 Jupiter-sized planets, along with 4688+-45 eclipsing binaries and 843+-75 background eclipsing binaries. We characteri...

  4. A new yield simulator for transiting planets and false positives: application to the Next Generation Transit Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Günther, Maximilian N.; Queloz, Didier; Demory, Brice-Olivier; Bouchy, Francois

    2017-03-01

    We present a yield simulator to predict the number and characteristics of planets, false positives and false alarms in transit surveys. The simulator is based on a galactic model and the planet occurrence rates measured by the Kepler mission. It takes into account the observation window function and measured noise levels of the investigated survey. Additionally, it includes vetting criteria to identify false positives. We apply this simulator to the Next Generation Transit Survey (NGTS), a wide-field survey designed to detect transiting Neptune-sized exoplanets. We find that red noise is the main limitation of NGTS up to 14 mag, and that its obtained level determines the expected yield. Assuming a red noise level of 1 mmag, the simulation predicts the following for a 4-yr survey: 4 ± 3 Super-Earths, 19 ± 5 Small Neptunes, 16 ± 4 Large Neptunes, 55 ± 8 Saturn-sized planets and 150 ± 10 Jupiter-sized planets, along with 4688 ± 45 eclipsing binaries and 843 ± 75 background eclipsing binaries. We characterize the properties of these objects to enhance the early identification of false positives and discuss follow-up strategies for transiting candidates.

  5. State of Simulation in Healthcare Education: An Initial Survey in Beijing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhao, Zichen; Niu, Pengfei; Ji, Xiang

    2017-01-01

    Background and Objectives: In 2013, medical error was the third leading cause of death in the United States.1 In China, as in the case with the United States, training and assessment are developing as a strategy to reduce the occurrence of such errors. The objective of this study was to assess the current state of the use of simulation-based training in Beijing and to explore the barriers to further development. Methods: This study included hospitals in Beijing accredited by the Standardized Residency Training (SRT) program. The questionnaire was designed online and distributed to the SRT management departments by e-mail or instant message. Results: Thirty hospitals were invited to participate in this survey, and 15 responses were completed and met the inclusion criteria. Task trainers (15/15), full-scale mannequins (14/15), standardized patients (12/15), and virtual reality workstations (11/15) were the most common types of simulation modalities available for use. Among the given specialties for SRT, the availability of simulation courses was 2/2 for pediatric internal medicine, 1/1 for pediatric surgery, 10/11 for surgery, 11/14 for internal medicine, 7/9 for anesthesiology, 6/8 for emergency medicine, and 3/9 for obstetrics/gynecology. Of the 13 institutions with available simulation curricula, 12/13 had simulation focused on proficiency-based skill training, 11/13 had medical knowledge learning, 10/13 had skill competency assessment. The main targeted trainees in these hospitals were residents (or postgraduate residents) and medical students (or interns). The top 2 barriers were the shortage of sustainable financial resources (12/15) and advocacy from their institutional authorities (7/15). Conclusion: It is evident that there is a need for more development of training facilities, and for training the “trainers” and administrators. Financial funding, curricular design, and research seem to be crucial for building a long-term, sustainable, effective program

  6. Simulation platform for direct load control of household appliances. Literature survey and G2 implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolm, J.; Vlaheli, A.

    1996-10-01

    There is an incentive for the power utilities to look for other ways than building new power stations to satisfy increasing customer power needs. One way to fulfill this demand is by redistributing the available electric power between the different power consumers. This method can successfully be used during high peak hours. The utility is also able to make financial profits selling the redistributed electric power at a higher price to customers with temporary high power demands. Direct Load Control - DLC, a Demand Side Management - DSM tool, is one way to achieve a redistribution of electric power. This masters thesis project consisted in developing a user-friendly simulation platform for domestic appliances combined with an electric power control system to be employed for Direct Load Control. The platform contains the necessary facilities for designing an electrical distribution network model and is implemented in G2, an object-oriented real-time environment. The final application provides an on-line instrument for the utility to control the power consumption over the entire system in terms of dispensing power in an electrical network. The report consists of two main parts. The first part describes a literature survey we systematically compiled to gather literature sources. The second part outlines our design and implementation of the G2 simulation platform for a water-heater model with a Direct Load Control system. The entire simulation platform is designed to allow a flexible change and improvement of the different models. Consequently, our software is a powerful tool for studying a wide range of problems related to a Load Management program involving electrical household loads. 9 refs, 32 figs

  7. HIDE & SEEK: End-to-end packages to simulate and process radio survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akeret, J.; Seehars, S.; Chang, C.; Monstein, C.; Amara, A.; Refregier, A.

    2017-01-01

    As several large single-dish radio surveys begin operation within the coming decade, a wealth of radio data will become available and provide a new window to the Universe. In order to fully exploit the potential of these datasets, it is important to understand the systematic effects associated with the instrument and the analysis pipeline. A common approach to tackle this is to forward-model the entire system-from the hardware to the analysis of the data products. For this purpose, we introduce two newly developed, open-source Python packages: the HI Data Emulator (HIDE) and the Signal Extraction and Emission Kartographer (SEEK) for simulating and processing single-dish radio survey data. HIDE forward-models the process of collecting astronomical radio signals in a single-dish radio telescope instrument and outputs pixel-level time-ordered-data. SEEK processes the time-ordered-data, removes artifacts from Radio Frequency Interference (RFI), automatically applies flux calibration, and aims to recover the astronomical radio signal. The two packages can be used separately or together depending on the application. Their modular and flexible nature allows easy adaptation to other instruments and datasets. We describe the basic architecture of the two packages and examine in detail the noise and RFI modeling in HIDE, as well as the implementation of gain calibration and RFI mitigation in SEEK. We then apply HIDE &SEEK to forward-model a Galactic survey in the frequency range 990-1260 MHz based on data taken at the Bleien Observatory. For this survey, we expect to cover 70% of the full sky and achieve a median signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 5-6 in the cleanest channels including systematic uncertainties. However, we also point out the potential challenges of high RFI contamination and baseline removal when examining the early data from the Bleien Observatory. The fully documented HIDE &SEEK packages are available at http://hideseek.phys.ethz.ch/ and are published

  8. Regionalization of subsurface stormflow parameters of hydrologic models: Up-scaling from physically based numerical simulations at hillslope scale

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ali, Melkamu; Ye, Sheng; Li, Hongyi; Huang, Maoyi; Leung, Lai-Yung R.; Fiori, Aldo; Sivapalan, Murugesu

    2014-07-19

    Subsurface stormflow is an important component of the rainfall-runoff response, especially in steep forested regions. However; its contribution is poorly represented in current generation of land surface hydrological models (LSMs) and catchment-scale rainfall-runoff models. The lack of physical basis of common parameterizations precludes a priori estimation (i.e. without calibration), which is a major drawback for prediction in ungauged basins, or for use in global models. This paper is aimed at deriving physically based parameterizations of the storage-discharge relationship relating to subsurface flow. These parameterizations are derived through a two-step up-scaling procedure: firstly, through simulations with a physically based (Darcian) subsurface flow model for idealized three dimensional rectangular hillslopes, accounting for within-hillslope random heterogeneity of soil hydraulic properties, and secondly, through subsequent up-scaling to the catchment scale by accounting for between-hillslope and within-catchment heterogeneity of topographic features (e.g., slope). These theoretical simulation results produced parameterizations of the storage-discharge relationship in terms of soil hydraulic properties, topographic slope and their heterogeneities, which were consistent with results of previous studies. Yet, regionalization of the resulting storage-discharge relations across 50 actual catchments in eastern United States, and a comparison of the regionalized results with equivalent empirical results obtained on the basis of analysis of observed streamflow recession curves, revealed a systematic inconsistency. It was found that the difference between the theoretical and empirically derived results could be explained, to first order, by climate in the form of climatic aridity index. This suggests a possible codependence of climate, soils, vegetation and topographic properties, and suggests that subsurface flow parameterization needed for ungauged locations must

  9. SURVEY

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    SURVEY er en udbredt metode og benyttes inden for bl.a. samfundsvidenskab, humaniora, psykologi og sundhedsforskning. Også uden for forskningsverdenen er der mange organisationer som f.eks. konsulentfirmaer og offentlige institutioner samt marketingsafdelinger i private virksomheder, der arbejder...... med surveys. Denne bog gennemgår alle surveyarbejdets faser og giver en praktisk indføring i: • design af undersøgelsen og udvælgelse af stikprøver, • formulering af spørgeskemaer samt indsamling og kodning af data, • metoder til at analysere resultaterne...

  10. A survey of dual active galactic nuclei in simulations of galaxy mergers: frequency and properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capelo, Pedro R.; Dotti, Massimo; Volonteri, Marta; Mayer, Lucio; Bellovary, Jillian M.; Shen, Sijing

    2017-08-01

    We investigate the simultaneous triggering of active galactic nuclei (AGN) in merging galaxies, using a large suite of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations. We compute dual-AGN observability time-scales using bolometric, X-ray and Eddington-ratio thresholds, confirming that dual activity from supermassive black holes (BHs) is generally higher at late pericentric passages, before a merger remnant has formed, especially at high luminosities. For typical minor and major mergers, dual activity lasts ˜20-70 and ˜100-160 Myr, respectively. We also explore the effects of X-ray obscuration from gas, finding that the dual-AGN time decreases at most by a factor of ˜2, and of contamination from star formation. Using projected separations and velocity differences rather than three-dimensional quantities can decrease the dual-AGN time-scales by up to ˜4, and we apply filters that mimic current observational-resolution limitations. In agreement with observations, we find that for a sample of major and minor mergers hosting at least one AGN, the fraction harbouring dual AGN is ˜20-30 and ˜1-10 per cent, respectively. We quantify the effects of merger mass ratio (0.1 to 1), geometry (coplanar, prograde and retrograde, and inclined), disc gas fraction and BH properties, finding that the mass ratio is the most important factor, with the difference between minor and major mergers varying between factors of a few to orders of magnitude, depending on the luminosity and filter used. We also find that a shallow imaging survey will require very high angular resolution whereas a deep imaging survey will be less resolution-dependent.

  11. SIMULATED LSST SURVEY OF RR LYRAE STARS THROUGHOUT THE LOCAL GROUP

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Oluseyi, Hakeem M.; Culliton, Christopher; Furqan, Muhammad; Hoadley, Keri L.; Regencia, Paul; Wells, Akeem J. [Department of Physics and Space Sciences, Florida Institute of Technology, Melbourne, FL 32901 (United States); Becker, Andrew C.; Ivezic, Zeljko; Jones, R. Lynne; Krughoff, K. Simon [Astronomy Department, University of Washington, Seattle, WA 98195 (United States); Sesar, Branimir [Division of Physics, Mathematics and Astronomy, California Institute of Technology, Pasadena, CA 91125 (United States); Jacoby, Suzanne [LSST Corporation, Tucson, AZ 85721 (United States); Allison, Idatonye J. [Department of Physics, Alabama Agricultural and Mechanical University, Normal, AL 35762 (United States)

    2012-07-15

    We report on a study to determine the efficiency of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) to recover the periods, brightnesses, and shapes of RR Lyrae stars' light curves in the volume extending to heliocentric distances of 1.5 Mpc. We place the smoothed light curves of 30 type ab and 10 type c RR Lyrae stars in 1007 fields across the sky, each of which represents a different realization of the LSST sampling cadences, and that sample five particular observing modes. A light curve simulation tool was used to sample the idealized RR Lyrae stars' light curves, returning each as it would have been observed by LSST, including realistic photometric scatter, limiting magnitudes, and telescope downtime. We report here the period, brightness, and light curve shape recovery as a function of apparent magnitude and for survey lengths varying from 1 to 10 years. We find that 10 years of LSST data are sufficient to recover the pulsation periods with a fractional precision of {approx}10{sup -5} for {>=}90% of ab stars within Almost-Equal-To 360 kpc of the Sun in Universal Cadence fields and out to Almost-Equal-To 760 kpc for Deep Drilling fields. The 50% completeness level extends to Almost-Equal-To 600 kpc and Almost-Equal-To 1.0 Mpc for the same fields, respectively. For virtually all stars that had their periods recovered, their light curve shape parameter {phi}{sub 31} was recovered with sufficient precision to also recover photometric metallicities to within 0.14 dex (the systematic error in the photometric relations). With RR Lyrae stars' periods and metallicities well measured to these distances, LSST will be able to search for halo streams and dwarf satellite galaxies over half of the Local Group, informing galaxy formation models and providing essential data for mapping the Galactic potential. This study also informs the LSST science operations plan for optimizing observing strategies to achieve particular science goals. We additionally present a new

  12. Genus Statistics of the Virgo N-body simulations and the 1.2-Jy Redshift Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Springel, V; Colberg, J M; Couchman, H M P; Efstathiou, G P; Frenk, C S; Jenkins, A R; Pearce, F R; Nelson, A H; Peacock, J A; Thomas, P A

    1997-01-01

    We study the topology of the Virgo N-body simulations and compare it to the 1.2-Jy redshift survey of IRAS galaxies by means of the genus statistic. Four high-resolution simulations of variants of the CDM cosmology are considered: a flat standard model (SCDM), a variant of it with more large-scale power (tCDM), and two low density universes, one open (OCDM) and one flat (LCDM). The fully sampled N-body simulations are examined down to strongly nonlinear scales, both with spatially fixed smoothing, and with an adaptive smoothing technique. While the tCDM, LCDM, and OCDM simulations have very similar genus statistics in the regime accessible to fixed smoothing, they can be separated with adaptive smoothing at small mass scales. In order to compare the N-body models with the 1.2-Jy survey, we extract large ensembles of mock catalogues from the simulations. These mock surveys are used to test for systematic effects in the genus analysis and to establish the distribution of errors of the genus curve. We find that ...

  13. Effect of Bias Correction of Satellite-Rainfall Estimates on Runoff Simulations at the Source of the Upper Blue Nile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emad Habib

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Results of numerous evaluation studies indicated that satellite-rainfall products are contaminated with significant systematic and random errors. Therefore, such products may require refinement and correction before being used for hydrologic applications. In the present study, we explore a rainfall-runoff modeling application using the Climate Prediction Center-MORPHing (CMORPH satellite rainfall product. The study area is the Gilgel Abbay catchment situated at the source basin of the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia, Eastern Africa. Rain gauge networks in such area are typically sparse. We examine different bias correction schemes applied locally to the CMORPH product. These schemes vary in the degree to which spatial and temporal variability in the CMORPH bias fields are accounted for. Three schemes are tested: space and time-invariant, time-variant and spatially invariant, and space and time variant. Bias-corrected CMORPH products were used to calibrate and drive the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV rainfall-runoff model. Applying the space and time-fixed bias correction scheme resulted in slight improvement of the CMORPH-driven runoff simulations, but in some instances caused deterioration. Accounting for temporal variation in the bias reduced the rainfall bias by up to 50%. Additional improvements were observed when both the spatial and temporal variability in the bias was accounted for. The rainfall bias was found to have a pronounced effect on model calibration. The calibrated model parameters changed significantly when using rainfall input from gauges alone, uncorrected, and bias-corrected CMORPH estimates. Changes of up to 81% were obtained for model parameters controlling the stream flow volume.

  14. High-fidelity Simulations of the Near-Earth Object Search Performance of the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vereš, Peter; Chesley, Steven R.

    2017-07-01

    We perform high-fidelity simulations of a wide-field telescopic survey searching for Near-Earth Objects (NEOs) larger than 140 m, focusing on the observation and detection model, as well as detection efficiency and accuracy. As a test survey, we select the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST). We use its proposed pointings for a 10-year mission, and model the detection of NEOs in the fields. We discuss individual model parameters for magnitude losses, vignetting, fading, asteroid rotation and colors, fill factor, limiting magnitude, rate of motion, field shape and rotation, and survey patterns. We assess results in terms of the cumulative completeness of the detected population as a function of size and time. Additionally, we examine the sources of modeling uncertainty, and derive the overall NEO population completeness for the baseline LSST survey to be 55 ± 5% for NEOs with absolute magnitude brighter than 22. Including already discovered objects and ongoing surveys, the NEO completeness at the end of the LSST baseline survey should reach ˜77%.

  15. Predicting in ungauged basins using a parsimonious rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Skaugen, Thomas; Olav Peerebom, Ivar; Nilsson, Anna

    2015-04-01

    Prediction in ungauged basins is a demanding, but necessary test for hydrological model structures. Ideally, the relationship between model parameters and catchment characteristics (CC) should be hydrologically justifiable. Many studies, however, report on failure to obtain significant correlations between model parameters and CCs. Under the hypothesis that the lack of correlations stems from non-identifiability of model parameters caused by overparameterization, the relatively new parameter parsimonious DDD (Distance Distribution Dynamics) model was tested for predictions in ungauged basins in Norway. In DDD, the capacity of the subsurface water reservoir M is the only parameter to be calibrated whereas the runoff dynamics is completely parameterised from observed characteristics derived from GIS and runoff recession analysis. Water is conveyed through the soils to the river network by waves with celerities determined by the level of saturation in the catchment. The distributions of distances between points in the catchment to the nearest river reach and of the river network give, together with the celerities, distributions of travel times, and, consequently unit hydrographs. DDD has 6 parameters less to calibrate in the runoff module than, for example, the well-known Swedish HBV model. In this study, multiple regression equations relating CCs and model parameters were trained from 84 calibrated catchments located all over Norway and all model parameters showed significant correlations with catchment characteristics. The significant correlation coefficients (with p- value < 0.05) ranged from 0.22-0.55. The suitability of DDD for predictions in ungauged basins was tested for 17 catchments not used to estimate the multiple regression equations. For 10 of the 17 catchments, deviations in Nash-Suthcliffe Efficiency (NSE) criteria between the calibrated and regionalised model were less than 0.1. The median NSE for the regionalised DDD for the 17 catchments, for two different time series was 0.66 and 0.72. Deviations in NSE between calibrated and regionalised models are well explained by the deviations between calibrated and regressed parameters describing spatial snow distribution and snowmelt, respectively. This latter result indicates the topic for further improvements in the model structure of DDD.

  16. Accumulation of contaminants from urban rainfall runoff in blue crabs: A pilot study

    Data.gov (United States)

    US Fish and Wildlife Service, Department of the Interior — The objective of this pilot study was to determine the feasibility of using caged blue crabs Callinectes sapidus to monitor accumulation of contaminants in urban...

  17. Off site transport of fungicides with snowmelt and rainfall runoff from golf course fairway turf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesticides associated with the turfgrass industry have been detected in storm runoff and surface waters of urban watersheds; inferring contaminant contributions from residential, urban, and recreational sources. Golf course turf often requires multiple applications of pesticides at rates that exceed...

  18. [Distribution and source apportionment of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in urban rainfall runoff].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Zi-Lan; Yang, Yi; Liu, Min; Lu, Min; Yu, Ying-Peng; Wang, Qing; Zheng, Xin

    2014-11-01

    Runoff samples were collected from traffic roads, campus, residential road and roof in a typical rain event. Polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) in both dissolved and particle phases were investigated at impervious surfaces. The PAHs wash-off process at different monitoring sites was analyzed. The scatters of first flush were conducted in a method of fitting power function to quantitatively assess the magnitude of first flush effect (FFE). The sources of PAHs were identified using factor analysis. The results showed that PAHs concentrations in runoff samples varied from 317.21 ng x L(-1) to 10364.3 ng x L(-1) with the maximal and minimal contents of PAHs found on Longwu Road and campus, respectively. The values of event mean concentration ( EMC) varied considerably at different sampling sites. The concentration of washed-off pollutant generally decreased with runoff duration, which showed an obvious attenuation trend. The runoff process indicated the occurrence of FFE at different levels. PAHs mainly came from the incomplete combustion of fossil fuels, oil leakage and coking, and the contribution of each source was different in accordance with various surfaces.

  19. Curve Number estimation from rainfall-runoff data in the Brazilian Cerrado Biome

    Science.gov (United States)

    Oliveira, P. S.; Nearing, M.; Rodrigues, D. B.; Panachuki, E.; Wendland, E.

    2013-12-01

    The Brazilian Cerrado (Savanna) is considered one of the most important biomes for Brazilian water resources; meanwhile, it is experiencing major losses of its natural landscapes due to the pressures of food and energy production, which has caused changes in hydrological processes. To evaluate these changes hydrologic models have been used. The Curve Number (SCS-CN) method has been widely employed to estimate direct runoff from a given rainfall event, however, there are some uncertainties for estimating this parameter, particularly for use in areas with native vegetation. The objectives of this study were to measure natural rainfall-driven rates of runoff under native Cerrado vegetation and under the main crops found in this biome, and derive associated CN values from five methods. We used six plots of 5 x 20 m (100 m2) in size, with three replications of undisturbed Cerrado and three under bare soil (Ortic Quartzarenic Neosol, hydrological soil class A) and 10 plots of 3.5 x 22.15 m (77.5 m2), with two replications for pasture, soy, millet, sugarcane and bare soil (Dystrophic Red Argisol, hydrological soil class B). Plots were monitored between October 2011 and April 2013. The five methods used to obtain CN values were median, geometric mean, arithmetic mean, nonlinear, least squares fit, and standard asymptotic fit. We found reasonable results for CN calibration for the undisturbed Cerrado only by using the nonlinear least squares fit. CN obtained from the standard table values was not adequate to estimate runoff for this condition. The standard table and the five CN methods presented satisfactory results for the other land covers studied. From our results we can suggest the best CN values for each land cover: Cerrado 49.8 (47.9-51.1), bare soil class-A 83.9 (74.4-93.4), bare soil class-B 88.3 (81.7-94.8), pasture 73.7 (62.9-84.5), soy 83.5 (80.6-86.4), millet 73.9 (67.4-80.4) and sugarcane 83.9 (80.6-87.3). These CN values and ranges provide guidance for application of the curve number technique in ungauged watersheds, and to evaluate the CN calibration in other similar regions.

  20. Real-Time Hydrology of LID Systems, Rainfall-Runoff Hydrographs, and Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Continuous monitoring of moisture content within bioretention and permeable pavement systems (porous asphalt and permeable pavers) demonstrate that these systems rarely achieve saturation. This is understandable for the permeable pavement because the watershed area to filter are...

  1. rainfall runoff model for cala noff model for calabar metropolis u ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    4 DEPARTMENT OF CIVIL ENGINEERING, R. E-mail addresses ... have the highest average rainfall. However, due ...... [10] Nigerian Meteorological Agency, 2010. [11] Darayatne ... and Environment Research, Queensland, Australia,. 6-8 July ...

  2. The role of bedrock groundwater in rainfall-runoff response at hillslope and catchment scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Gabrielli; J.J. McDonnell; W.T. Jarvis

    2012-01-01

    Bedrock groundwater dynamics in headwater catchments are poorly understood and poorly characterized. Direct hydrometric measurements have been limited due to the logistical challenges associated with drilling through hard rock in steep, remote and often roadless terrain. We used a new portable bedrock drilling system to explore bedrock groundwater dynamics aimed at...

  3. Parameter Estimation in Rainfall-Runoff Modelling Using Distributed Versions of Particle Swarm Optimization Algorithm

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Michala Jakubcová

    2015-01-01

    Full Text Available The presented paper provides the analysis of selected versions of the particle swarm optimization (PSO algorithm. The tested versions of the PSO were combined with the shuffling mechanism, which splits the model population into complexes and performs distributed PSO optimization. One of them is a new proposed PSO modification, APartW, which enhances the global exploration and local exploitation in the parametric space during the optimization process through the new updating mechanism applied on the PSO inertia weight. The performances of four selected PSO methods were tested on 11 benchmark optimization problems, which were prepared for the special session on single-objective real-parameter optimization CEC 2005. The results confirm that the tested new APartW PSO variant is comparable with other existing distributed PSO versions, AdaptW and LinTimeVarW. The distributed PSO versions were developed for finding the solution of inverse problems related to the estimation of parameters of hydrological model Bilan. The results of the case study, made on the selected set of 30 catchments obtained from MOPEX database, show that tested distributed PSO versions provide suitable estimates of Bilan model parameters and thus can be used for solving related inverse problems during the calibration process of studied water balance hydrological model.

  4. Application of a Geographic Information System to Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

    Science.gov (United States)

    1991-02-01

    integrating the continuity of mass equation over the whole basin. 23 Seader , 1974 (32). A model called "DYIAH Ila is used to proj ect land use patterns for the...Data, Eastern Mendocino County, -California. USDA, Soil Conservation Service, Ukiah, California. 94 32. Seader , D. and S. Grava, 1971. "A Demonstration

  5. Loss Modeling with a Data-Driven Approach in Event-Based Rainfall-Runoff Analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chua, L. H. C.

    2012-04-01

    Mathematical models require the estimation of rainfall abstractions for accurate predictions of runoff. Although loss models such as the constant loss and exponential loss models are commonly used, these methods are based on simplified assumptions of the physical process. A new approach based on the data driven paradigm to estimate rainfall abstractions is proposed in this paper. The proposed data driven model, based on the artificial neural network (ANN) does not make any assumptions on the loss behavior. The estimated discharge from a physically-based model, obtained from the kinematic wave (KW) model assuming zero losses, was used as the only input to the ANN. The output is the measured discharge. Thus, the ANN functions as a black-box loss model. Two sets of data were analyzed for this study. The first dataset consists of rainfall and runoff data, measured from an artificial catchment (area = 25 m2) comprising two overland planes (slope = 11%), 25m long, transversely inclined towards a rectangular channel (slope = 2%) which conveyed the flow, recorded using calibrated weigh tanks, to the outlet. Two rain gauges, each placed 6.25 m from either ends of the channel, were used to record rainfall. Data for six storm events over the period between October 2002 and December 2002 were analyzed. The second dataset was obtained from the Upper Bukit Timah catchment (area = 6.4 km2) instrumented with two rain gauges and a flow measuring station. A total of six events recorded between November 1987 and July 1988 were selected for this study. The runoff predicted by the ANN was compared with the measured runoff. In addition, results from KW models developed for both the catchments were used as a benchmark. The KW models were calibrated assuming the loss rate for an average event for each of the datasets. The results from both the ANN and KW models agreed well with the runoff measured from the artificial catchment. The KW model is expected to perform well since the catchment is completely impervious and the losses are small. Thus, the good agreement of results between the ANN with the KW model results demonstrates the applicability of the ANN model in modeling the loss rate. Comparing the modeled runoff with the measured runoff for the Upper Bukit Timah catchment, it was found that the KW model was not able to produce the runoff from the catchment accurately due to the improper prescription of the loss rate. This is because the loss rate varies over a wide range of values in a real catchment and using the loss rate for an average event did not provide truly representative values for the catchment. Although the same dataset was used in the training of the ANN model, the ANN model was able to produce hydrographs with significantly higher Nash-Sutcliffe coefficients compared to the KW model. This analysis demonstrates that the ANN model is better able to model the highly variable loss rate during storm events, especially if the data used for calibration is limited. ACKNOWLEDGEMENT Funding received from the DHI-NTU Water & Environment Research Centre and Education Hub is gratefully acknowledged.

  6. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    , research has primarily focused on one-step-ahead flow predictions for identifying, estimating, and evaluating greybox models. For control purposes, however, stochastic predictions are required for longer forecast horizons and for the prediction of runoff volumes, rather than flows. This article therefore...

  7. Turbid releases from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, following rainfall-runoff events of September 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildman, Richard A.; Vernieu, William

    2017-01-01

    Glen Canyon Dam is a large dam on the Colorado River in Arizona. In September 2013, it released turbid water following intense thunderstorms in the surrounding area. Turbidity was >15 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) for multiple days and >30 NTU at its peak. These unprecedented turbid releases impaired downstream fishing activity and motivated a rapid-response field excursion. At 5 locations upstream from the dam, temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, and turbidity were measured in vertical profiles. Local streamflow and rainfall records were retrieved, and turbidity and specific conductance data in dam releases were evaluated. Profiling was conducted to determine possible sources of turbidity from 3 tributaries nearest the dam, Navajo, Antelope, and Wahweap creeks, which entered Lake Powell as interflows during this study. We discuss 4 key conditions that must have been met for tributaries to influence turbidity of dam releases: tributary flows must have reached the dam, tributary flows must have been laden with sediment, inflow currents must have been near the depth of dam withdrawals, and the settling velocity of particles must have been slow. We isolate 2 key uncertainties that reservoir managers should resolve in future similar studies: the reach of tributary water into the reservoir thalweg and the distribution of particle size of suspended sediment. These uncertainties leave the source of the turbidity ambiguous, although an important role for Wahweap Creek is possible. The unique combination of limnological factors we describe implies that turbid releases at Glen Canyon Dam will continue to be rare.

  8. A retrospective survey of the use of laboratory tests to simulate internal combustion engine materials tribology problems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Blau, P.J.

    1992-12-31

    Progress in the Field of tribology strongly parallels, and has always been strongly driven by, developments and needs in transportation and related industries. Testing of candidate materials for internal combustion engine applications has historically taken several routes: (1) replacement of parts in actual engines subjected to daily use, (2) testing in special, instrumented test engines, (3) and simulative testing in laboratory tribometers using relatively simple specimens. The advantages and disadvantages of each approach are reviewed using historical examples. A four-decade, retrospective survey of the tribomaterials literature focused on the effectiveness of laboratory simulations for engine materials screening. Guidelines for designing and ducting successful tribology laboratory simulations will be discussed. These concepts were used to design a valve wear simulator at Oak Ridge National Laboratory.

  9. Radio Counterparts of Compact Binary Mergers Detectable in Gravitational Waves: A Simulation for an Optimized Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hotokezaka, K.; Nissanke, S.; Hallinan, G.; Lazio, T. J. W.; Nakar, E.; Piran, T.

    2016-11-01

    Mergers of binary neutron stars and black hole-neutron star binaries produce gravitational-wave (GW) emission and outflows with significant kinetic energies. These outflows result in radio emissions through synchrotron radiation. We explore the detectability of these synchrotron-generated radio signals by follow-up observations of GW merger events lacking a detection of electromagnetic counterparts in other wavelengths. We model radio light curves arising from (i) sub-relativistic merger ejecta and (ii) ultra-relativistic jets. The former produce radio remnants on timescales of a few years and the latter produce γ-ray bursts in the direction of the jet and orphan-radio afterglows extending over wider angles on timescales of weeks. Based on the derived light curves, we suggest an optimized survey at 1.4 GHz with five epochs separated by a logarithmic time interval. We estimate the detectability of the radio counterparts of simulated GW-merger events to be detected by advanced LIGO and Virgo by current and future radio facilities. The detectable distances for these GW merger events could be as high as 1 Gpc. Around 20%-60% of the long-lasting radio remnants will be detectable in the case of the moderate kinetic energy of 3\\cdot {10}50 erg and a circum-merger density of 0.1 {{cm}}-3 or larger, while 5%-20% of the orphan-radio afterglows with kinetic energy of 1048 erg will be detectable. The detection likelihood increases if one focuses on the well-localizable GW events. We discuss the background noise due to radio fluxes of host galaxies and false positives arising from extragalactic radio transients and variable active galactic nuclei, and we show that the quiet radio transient sky is of great advantage when searching for the radio counterparts.

  10. Perceived and Performed eHealth Literacy: Survey and Simulated Performance Test.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neter, Efrat; Brainin, Esther

    2017-01-17

    Electronic health (eHealth) literacy of consumers is essential in order to improve information and communication technology (ICT) use for health purposes by ordinary citizens. However, performed eHealth literacy is seldom studied. Therefore, the present study assessed perceived and performed eHealth literacy using the recent conceptualization of health literacy skills. The aim of this paper was to examine the association between perceived and performed eHealth literacies. In total, 82 Israeli adults participated in the study, all 50 years and older, with a mean age of 67 (SD 11). Of the participants, 60% (49/82) were women and 72% (59/82) had a post-secondary education. The participants were first surveyed and then tested in a computer simulation of health-related Internet tasks. Performed, perceived (eHealth Literacy Scale, eHEALS), and evaluated eHealth literacy were assessed, and performed eHealth literacy was also recorded and re-evaluated later. Performance was scored for successful completion of tasks, and was also assessed by two researchers for motivation, confidence, and amount of help provided. The skills of accessing, understanding, appraising, applying, and generating new information had decreasing successful completion rates. Generating new information was least correlated with other skills. Perceived and performed eHealth literacies were moderately correlated (r=.34, P=.01) while facets of performance (ie, digital literacy and eHealth literacy) were highly correlated (r=.82, Pliteracy were significantly different: low performers were older and had used the Internet for less time, required more assistance, and were less confident in their conduct than high performers. The moderate association between perceived and performed eHealth literacy indicates that the latter should be assessed separately. In as much, the assessment of performed eHealth literacy in clinical settings should entail the structuring of tasks as well as shortening and automatizing

  11. Assessing the Behaviour of Non-Survey Methods of Constructing Regional Input-Output Tables through a Monte Carlo Simulation

    OpenAIRE

    Bonfiglio, Andrea; Francesco CHELLI

    2007-01-01

    The paper aims to analyse the tendency of a battery of non-survey techniques of constructing regional I-O tables to over-(under-)estimate impact. The behaviour of the regionalization methods is assessed relatively to the techniques analysed. For this aim, a Monte Carlo simulation has been carried out. Then, a multidimensional scaling procedure has been applied to search for a common and repeated structure of differences among the methods and to give an immediate picture of possible implicatio...

  12. Estimating international interindustry linkages : Non-survey simulations of the Asian-Pacific economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhaven, J.; Stelder, T.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper evaluates a recently published semi-survey international input-output table for nine East-Asian countries and the USA with four non-survey estimation alternatives. A new generalized RAS procedure is used with stepwise increasing information from both import and export statistics as

  13. Perceived and Performed eHealth Literacy: Survey and Simulated Performance Test

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-01-01

    Background Electronic health (eHealth) literacy of consumers is essential in order to improve information and communication technology (ICT) use for health purposes by ordinary citizens. However, performed eHealth literacy is seldom studied. Therefore, the present study assessed perceived and performed eHealth literacy using the recent conceptualization of health literacy skills. Objective The aim of this paper was to examine the association between perceived and performed eHealth literacies. Methods In total, 82 Israeli adults participated in the study, all 50 years and older, with a mean age of 67 (SD 11). Of the participants, 60% (49/82) were women and 72% (59/82) had a post-secondary education. The participants were first surveyed and then tested in a computer simulation of health-related Internet tasks. Performed, perceived (eHealth Literacy Scale, eHEALS), and evaluated eHealth literacy were assessed, and performed eHealth literacy was also recorded and re-evaluated later. Performance was scored for successful completion of tasks, and was also assessed by two researchers for motivation, confidence, and amount of help provided. Results The skills of accessing, understanding, appraising, applying, and generating new information had decreasing successful completion rates. Generating new information was least correlated with other skills. Perceived and performed eHealth literacies were moderately correlated (r=.34, P=.01) while facets of performance (ie, digital literacy and eHealth literacy) were highly correlated (r=.82, P<.001). Participants low and high in performed eHealth literacy were significantly different: low performers were older and had used the Internet for less time, required more assistance, and were less confident in their conduct than high performers. Conclusions The moderate association between perceived and performed eHealth literacy indicates that the latter should be assessed separately. In as much, the assessment of performed e

  14. Survey of outcomes in a faculty development program on simulation pedagogy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roh, Young Sook; Kim, Mi Kang; Tangkawanich, Thitiarpha

    2016-06-01

    Although many nursing programs use simulation as a teaching-learning modality, there are few systematic approaches to help nursing educators learn this pedagogy. This study evaluates the effects of a simulation pedagogy nursing faculty development program on participants' learning perceptions using a retrospective pre-course and post-course design. Sixteen Thai participants completed a two-day nursing faculty development program on simulation pedagogy. Thirteen questionnaires were used in the final analysis. The participants' self-perceived learning about simulation teaching showed significant post-course improvement. On a five-point Likert scale, the composite mean attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control scores, as well as intention to use a simulator, showed a significant post-course increase. A faculty development program on simulation pedagogy induced favorable learning and attitudes. Further studies must test how faculty performance affects the cognitive, emotional, and social dimensions of learning in a simulation-based learning domain.

  15. Window opening behaviour: simulations of occupant behaviour in residential buildings using models based on a field survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valentina, Fabi; Andersen, Rune Korsholm; Corgnati, Stefano Paolo

    2012-01-01

    Window opening behaviour has been shown to have a significant impact on airflow rates and hence energy consumption. Nevertheless, the inhabitant behaviour related to window opening in residential buildings is currently poorly investigated through both field surveys and building energy simulations....... In particular, reliable information regarding user behaviour in residential buildings is crucial for suitable prediction of building performance (energy consumption, indoor environmental quality, etc.). To face this issue, measurements of indoor climate and outdoor environmental parameters and window “opening...... and closing” actions were performed in 15 dwellings from January to August 2008 in Denmark. Probabilistic models of inhabitants’ window “opening and closing” behaviour were developed and implemented in the energy simulation software IDA ICE to improve window opening and closing strategies in simulations...

  16. Investigating causes of changes in runoff using hydrological simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guoqing; Zhang, Jianyun; Li, Xuemei; Bao, Zhenxin; Liu, Yanli; Liu, Cuishan; He, Ruimin; Luo, Junsong

    2017-09-01

    Stream flow plays a crucial role in environmental, social and economic contexts. It is of significance to investigate the causes of change in runoff for better water resources management. This study detects the variation trend of recorded runoff of the Gushan River, a tributary of the Yellow River located on the Loess Plateau with severe soil and water losing, and investigates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using hydrological simulation approach. Results show that the recorded runoff at Gaoshiya station on the Gushan River has experienced a significant declining trend from 1954-2013 with an abrupt change occurring in 1973. SimHyd rainfall runoff model performs well for monthly discharge simulation with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 82.6 % and relative error of 0.32 %. Runoff depth over the catchment in 1980-2013 reduced by 52.4 mm compared to the previous period, in which human activities and climate change contribute 61.5 and 38.5 % of the total runoff reduction, respectively. However, the human-induced impact tends to increase. Therefore, efforts to improve the ecology of the Loess Plateau should give sufficient attention to the impacts of human activity.

  17. Investigating causes of changes in runoff using hydrological simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Guoqing; Zhang, Jianyun; Li, Xuemei; Bao, Zhenxin; Liu, Yanli; Liu, Cuishan; He, Ruimin; Luo, Junsong

    2016-03-01

    Stream flow plays a crucial role in environmental, social and economic contexts. It is of significance to investigate the causes of change in runoff for better water resources management. This study detects the variation trend of recorded runoff of the Gushan River, a tributary of the Yellow River located on the Loess Plateau with severe soil and water losing, and investigates the impacts of climate change and human activities on runoff using hydrological simulation approach. Results show that the recorded runoff at Gaoshiya station on the Gushan River has experienced a significant declining trend from 1954-2013 with an abrupt change occurring in 1973. SimHyd rainfall runoff model performs well for monthly discharge simulation with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient of 82.6 % and relative error of 0.32 %. Runoff depth over the catchment in 1980-2013 reduced by 52.4 mm compared to the previous period, in which human activities and climate change contribute 61.5 and 38.5 % of the total runoff reduction, respectively. However, the human-induced impact tends to increase. Therefore, efforts to improve the ecology of the Loess Plateau should give sufficient attention to the impacts of human activity.

  18. Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garman, Steven L.; Schweiger, E. William; Manier, Daniel J.; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

    2012-01-01

    A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (

  19. Technical survey of the New Earth 21. DNE-21 simulation database; Chikyu saisei keikaku gijutsu chosa. DNE21 simulation database

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    1997-03-01

    This report describes calculation codes of DNE-21 which can simulate the optimization model for reducing CO2. The improvement of it is also described. The DNE-21 was modified from the former NE-21. The term was set between 2000 and 2100. Optimization can be conducted across the different time. Non-conventional petroleum was removed from the primary energy. Capacity of nuclear power generation facilities was taken in the model for the optimization. Decision making analysis can be done by considering the uncertainty. In addition, energy saving effect can be incorporated by introducing innovated technologies, and methanol synthesis from CO2 can be treated. For the absorption of CO2 in air by biomass, the absorption amount was assumed to be in proportion to the afforestation area. The afforestation costs were given in individual grades. Furthermore, a carbon circulation model was linked, by which the CO2 concentration in air in the future can be predicted from the artificially emitted CO2 amount. 2 figs.

  20. Attitude guidance and simulation with animation of a land-survey satellite motion

    Science.gov (United States)

    Somova, Tatyana

    2017-01-01

    We consider problems of synthesis of the vector spline attitude guidance laws for a land-survey satellite and an in-flight support of the satellite attitude control system with the use of computer animation of its motion. We have presented the results on the efficiency of the developed algorithms.

  1. The high-redshift evolution of the Red Sequence scatter from joint simulations and HAWK-I Cluster Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Romeo, A D; Xi, Kang; Contini, E; Sommer-Larsen, J; Gavignaud, I

    2016-01-01

    We study the evolution of the Red Sequence (RS) scatter in galaxy clusters and groups simultaneously using predictions from our simulations (cosmological hydrodynamic + semi-analytical) as well as observational data from the HAWK-I Cluster Survey (HCS), a sample of galaxy clusters at redshifts $0.8 the correlation found between age and rest-frame colour scatters is quite robust, although all age scatter estimations ultimately depend on the definition of RS as well as on the completeness limits adopted. We find that the age spread of RS galaxies predicted by both hydrodynamical simulations and SAM increases with cosmic epoch, while the ratio between the age spread and the average age remains approximately constant. Both trends are in agreement with observational results from both the HCS and other literature samples.

  2. Accurate treatments of electrostatics for computer simulations of biological systems: A brief survey of developments and existing problems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yi, Sha-Sha; Pan, Cong; Hu, Zhong-Han

    2015-12-01

    Modern computer simulations of biological systems often involve an explicit treatment of the complex interactions among a large number of molecules. While it is straightforward to compute the short-ranged Van der Waals interaction in classical molecular dynamics simulations, it has been a long-lasting issue to develop accurate methods for the longranged Coulomb interaction. In this short review, we discuss three types of methodologies for the accurate treatment of electrostatics in simulations of explicit molecules: truncation-type methods, Ewald-type methods, and mean-field-type methods. Throughout the discussion, we brief the formulations and developments of these methods, emphasize the intrinsic connections among the three types of methods, and focus on the existing problems which are often associated with the boundary conditions of electrostatics. This brief survey is summarized with a short perspective on future trends along the method developments and applications in the field of biological simulations. Project supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (Grant Nos. 91127015 and 21522304) and the Open Project from the State Key Laboratory of Theoretical Physics, and the Innovation Project from the State Key Laboratory of Supramolecular Structure and Materials.

  3. Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Ngada, N M

    2015-01-01

    The complexity and cost of building and running high-power electrical systems make the use of simulations unavoidable. The simulations available today provide great understanding about how systems really operate. This paper helps the reader to gain an insight into simulation in the field of power converters for particle accelerators. Starting with the definition and basic principles of simulation, two simulation types, as well as their leading tools, are presented: analog and numerical simulations. Some practical applications of each simulation type are also considered. The final conclusion then summarizes the main important items to keep in mind before opting for a simulation tool or before performing a simulation.

  4. Large Scale Structures in the Las Campanas Redshift Survey and in Simulations

    OpenAIRE

    Müller, V; Doroshkevich, A. G.; Retzlaff, J.; Turchaninov, V.

    1998-01-01

    The large supercluster structures obvious in recent galaxy redshift surveys are quantified using an one-dimensional cluster analysis (core sampling) and a three-dimensional cluster analysis based on the minimal spanning tree. The comparison with the LCRS reveals promising stable results. At a mean overdensity of about ten, the supercluster systems form huge wall-like structures comprising about 40% of all galaxies. The overdense clusters have a low mean transverse velocity dispersion of about...

  5. The XXL Survey: I. Scientific motivations - XMM-Newton observing plan - Follow-up observations and simulation programme

    CERN Document Server

    Pierre, M; Adami, C; Alis, S; Altieri, B; Baran, B; Benoist, C; Birkinshaw, M; Bongiorno, A; Bremer, M N; Brusa, M; Butler, A; Ciliegi, P; Chiappetti, L; Clerc, N; Corasaniti, P S; Coupon, J; De Breuck, C; Democles, J; Desai, S; Delhaize, J; Devriendt, J; Dubois, Y; Eckert, D; Elyiv, A; Ettori, S; Evrard, A; Faccioli, L; Farahi, A; Ferrari, C; Finet, F; Fotopoulou, S; Fourmanoit, N; Gandhi, P; Gastaldello, F; Gastaud, R; Georgantopoulos, I; Giles, P; Guennou, L; Guglielmo, V; Horellou, C; Husband, K; Huynh, M; Iovino, A; Kilbinger, M; Koulouridis, E; Lavoie, S; Brun, A M C Le; Fevre, J P Le; Lidman, C; Lieu, M; Lin, C A; Mantz, A; Maughan, B J; Maurogordato, S; McCarthy, I G; McGee, S; Melin, J B; Melnyk, O; Menanteau, F; Novak, M; Paltani, S; Plionis, M; Poggianti, B M; Pomarede, D; Pompei, E; Ponman, T J; Ramos-Ceja, M E; Ranalli, P; Rapetti, D; Raychaudury, S; Reiprich, T H; Rottgering, H; Rozo, E; Rykoff, E; Sadibekova, T; Santos, J; Sauvageot, J L; Schimd, C; Sereno, M; Smith, G P; Smolčić, V; Snowden, S; Spergel, D; Stanford, S; Surdej, J; Valageas, P; Valotti, A; Valtchanov, I; Vignali, C; Willis, J; Ziparo, F

    2015-01-01

    We present the XXL Survey, the largest XMM programme totaling some 6.9 Ms to date and involving an international consortium of roughly 100 members. The XXL Survey covers two extragalactic areas of 25 deg2 each at a point-source sensitivity of ~ 5E-15 erg/sec/cm2 in the [0.5-2] keV band (completeness limit). The survey's main goals are to provide constraints on the dark energy equation of state from the space-time distribution of clusters of galaxies and to serve as a pathfinder for future, wide-area X-ray missions. We review science objectives, including cluster studies, AGN evolution, and large-scale structure, that are being conducted with the support of approximately 30 follow-up programmes. We describe the 542 XMM observations along with the associated multi-lambda and numerical simulation programmes. We give a detailed account of the X-ray processing steps and describe innovative tools being developed for the cosmological analysis. The paper provides a thorough evaluation of the X-ray data, including qua...

  6. Explicit simulations of stream networks to guide hydrological modelling in ungauged basins

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Stoll

    2010-01-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff modelling in ungauged basins is still one of the greatest challenges in recent hydrological research. The lack of discharge data necessitates the establishment of new innovative approaches to guide hydrological modelling in ungauged basins. Besides the transfer of calibrated parameters from similar gauged catchments, the application of distributed data as a hydrological response in addition to discharge seems to be promising. A new approach for model and parameter evaluation based on explicit simulation of the spatial stream network was tested in four different catchments in Germany. In a first step, spatial explicit modelling of stream networks was performed using a simplified version of the process-based model Hill-Vi together with regional climate normals. The simulated networks were compared to mapped stream networks and their degree of spatial agreement was evaluated. Significant differences between good and poor simulations could be distinguished and the corresponding parameter sets relate well with the hydrogeological properties of the catchments. The optimized parameters were subsequently used to simulate daily discharge using an observed time series of precipitation and air temperature. The performance was evaluated against observed discharge and water balance. This approach shows some promising results but also some limitations. Although the model's parsimonious model structure should to be further improved regarding discharge recession and evapotranspiration, the performance was similar to the regionalisation methods. Stream network modelling, which has minimal data requirements, seems to be a reasonable alternative for model development and parameter evaluation in ungauged basins.

  7. Empirically simulated study to compare and validate sampling methods used in aerial surveys of wildlife populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaemba, W.M.; Stein, A.; Rasch, D.; Leeuw, de J.; Georgiadis, N.

    2001-01-01

    This paper compares the distribution, sampling and estimation of abundance for two animal species in an African ecosystem by means of an intensive simulation of the sampling process under a geographical information system (GIS) environment. It focuses on systematic and random sampling designs, commo

  8. The Use of Seven Simulation Activities in a College Economics Survey Course.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraas, John W.

    The simulation-gaming approach to college introductory economics courses benefits students who possess a certain combination of cognitive learning styles. The Cognitive Style Questionnaire, administered to 120 freshmen, identified those students who obtain meaning from spoken words, numerals, or mathematical symbols; have the ability to place…

  9. Empirically simulated study to compare and validate sampling methods used in aerial surveys of wildlife populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaemba, W.M.; Stein, A.; Rasch, D.; Leeuw, de J.; Georgiadis, N.

    2001-01-01

    This paper compares the distribution, sampling and estimation of abundance for two animal species in an African ecosystem by means of an intensive simulation of the sampling process under a geographical information system (GIS) environment. It focuses on systematic and random sampling designs,

  10. PKDGRAV3: Beyond Trillion Particle Cosmological Simulations for the Next Era of Galaxy Surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Potter, Douglas; Teyssier, Romain

    2016-01-01

    We report on the successful completion of a 2 trillion particle cosmological simulation to z=0 run on the Piz Daint supercomputer (CSCS, Switzerland), using 4000+ GPU nodes for a little less than 80h of wall-clock time or 350,000 node hours. Using multiple benchmarks and performance measurements on the US Oak Ridge National Laboratory Titan supercomputer, we demonstrate that our code PKDGRAV3, delivers, to our knowledge, the fastest time-to-solution for large-scale cosmological N-body simulations. This was made possible by using the Fast Multipole Method in conjunction with individual and adaptive particle time steps, both deployed efficiently (and for the first time) on supercomputers with GPU-accelerated nodes. The very low memory footprint of PKDGRAV3 allowed us to run the first ever benchmark with 8 trillion particles on Titan, and to achieve perfect scaling up to 18000 nodes and a peak performance of 10 Pflops.

  11. Chandra Survey of Nearby Highly Inclined Disc Galaxies - III: Comparison with Hydrodynamical Simulations of Circumgalactic Coronae

    CERN Document Server

    Li, Jiang-Tao; Wang, Q Daniel

    2014-01-01

    X-ray observations of circumgalactic coronae provide a valuable means by which to test galaxy formation theories. Two primary mechanisms are thought to be responsible for the establishment of such coronae: accretion of intergalactic gas (IGM) and/or galactic feedback. In this paper, we first compare our Chandra sample of galactic coronae of 53 nearby highly-inclined disc galaxies to an analytical model considering only the accretion of IGM. We confirm the existing conclusion that this pure accretion model substantially over-predicts the coronal emission. We then select 30 field galaxies from our original sample, and correct their coronal luminosities to uniformly compare them to deep X-ray measurements of several massive disc galaxies from the literature, as well as to a comparable sample of simulated galaxies drawn from the Galaxies-Intergalactic Medium Interaction Calculation (GIMIC). These simulations explicitly model both accretion and SNe feedback and yield galaxies exhibit X-ray properties in broad agre...

  12. Validation of the Rotorcraft Flight Simulation Program (C81) Using Operational Loads Survey Flight Test Data.

    Science.gov (United States)

    1980-07-01

    could be improved by the use of one of the sensitive, accurate, cup - anemometer type of airspeed sensors that have recently been developed. 8.1.4...programs of this nature to enhance their use for the validation of simulation programs: - Remove the airspeed sensor from the boom and use a cup - anemometer ...transducers to allow access to the instrumentation. Hot-wire anemometers were then applied to the leading edge at the same five blade stations. 24 The

  13. [Non-linear System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of Adolescent Obesity: Using Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hanna; Park, Eun Suk; Yu, Jae Kook; Yun, Eun Kyoung

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for adolescent obesity in Korea that could be used for obesity policy analysis. On the basis of the casual loop diagram, a model was developed by converting to stock and flow diagram. The Vensim DSS 5.0 program was used in the model development. We simulated method of moments to the calibration of this model with data from The Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey 2005 to 2013. We ran the scenario simulation. This model can be used to understand the current adolescent obesity rate, predict the future obesity rate, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the risk factors. The results of the model simulation match well with the data. It was identified that a proper model, able to predict obesity probability, was established. These results of stock and flow diagram modeling in adolescent obesity can be helpful in development of obesity by policy planners and other stakeholders to better anticipate the multiple effects of interventions in both the short and the long term. In the future we suggest the development of an expanded model based on this adolescent obesity model.

  14. [Simulation-based anaesthesia crisis resource management training. Results of a survey on learning success].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schröder, T; von Heymann, C H; Ortwein, H; Rau, J; Wernecke, K D; Spies, C

    2009-10-01

    Up to as many as 38,000 people die in German hospitals each year as a result of preventable medical errors. Anesthetic procedures are generally safer than internal medical procedures and the mortality associated with anesthesia is estimated to be 3.3-5 cases per million. However, this is still 10 times higher than the risk associated with civilian aviation for example. Up to 80% of mistakes are attributable to inadequate execution of non-technical skills (NTS) such as communication, teamwork and organization of the working environment. Training in non-technical skills through Anesthesia Crisis Resource Management (ACRM) is an integral part of the Berlin Simulation Training (BeST) curriculum. The aim of this study was to describe the subjective evaluation of change in routine clinical behavior as a result of simulator training using latent outcome variables such as "subjective evaluation of learning outcome", with special emphasis on communication. In total 235 doctors with varying levels of professional experience received BeST training between 2001 and 2004. An anonymous postal questionnaire was sent to 228 of these participants and the response rate was 64% The questionnaire contained 13 questions covering evaluation of the workshop and learning outcome with respect to communication in the operating room (OR), teamwork in the OR and medical knowledge. Following factor analysis 3 latent outcome variables (subjective evaluation of the learning outcome, workshop-related change in perception of the value of communication and general value and relevance) were generated. Logistic regression was used to determine whether there was any relationship between the latent outcome variables and a number of independent factors. It was not possible to demonstrate any relationship between the level of professional training, age or date of the workshop and the variables selected to describe subjective evaluation of behavioral change as a result of the workshop. How realistic the

  15. The Role of Haptics in Medical Training Simulators: A Survey of the State of the Art.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Coles, T R; Meglan, D; John, N W

    2011-01-01

    This review paper discusses the role of haptics within virtual medical training applications, particularly, where it can be used to aid a practitioner to learn and practice a task. The review summarizes aspects to be considered in the deployment of haptics technologies in medical training. First, both force/torque and tactile feedback hardware solutions that are currently produced commercially and in academia are reviewed, followed by the available haptics-related software and then an in-depth analysis of medical training simulations that include haptic feedback. The review is summarized with scrutiny of emerging technologies and discusses future directions in the field.

  16. Application of pesticide transport model for simulating diazinon runoff in California’s central valley

    Science.gov (United States)

    Joyce, Brian A.; Wallender, Wesley W.; Mailapalli, Damodhara R.

    2010-12-01

    Dormant spray application of pesticides to almond and other stone fruit orchards is the main source of diazinon during the winter in California's central valley. Understanding the pesticide transport and the tradeoffs associated with the various management practices is greatly facilitated by the use of physically-based contaminant transport models. In this study, performance of Joyce's et al. (2008) pesticide transport model was evaluated using experimental data collected from two ground treatments such as resident vegetation and bare soil. The model simulation results obtained in calibration and validation process were analyzed for pesticide concentration and total load. The pesticide transport model accurately predicted the pesticide concentrations and total load in the runoff from bare field and was capable of simulating chemical responses to rainfall-runoff events. In case of resident vegetation, the model results exhibited a larger range of variation than was observed in the bare soil simulations due to increased model parameterization with the addition of foliage and thatch compartments. Furthermore, the model was applied to study the effect of runoff lag time, extent of crop cover, organic content of soil and post-application irrigation on the pesticide peak concentration and total load. Based on the model results, recommendations were suggested to growers prior to implementing certain management decisions to mitigate diazinon transport in the orchard's spray runoff.

  17. A New Method for Urban Storm Flood Inundation Simulation with Fine CD-TIN Surface

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zhifeng Li

    2014-05-01

    Full Text Available Urban storm inundation, which frequently has dramatic impacts on city safety and social life, is an emergent and difficult issue. Due to the complexity of urban surfaces and the variety of spatial modeling elements, the lack of detailed hydrological data and accurate urban surface models compromise the study and implementation of urban storm inundation simulations. This paper introduces a Constrained Delaunay Triangular Irregular Network (CD-TIN to model fine urban surfaces (based on detailed ground sampling data and subsequently employs a depression division method that refers to Fine Constrained Features (FCFs to construct computational urban water depressions. Storm-runoff yield is placed through mass conservation to calculate the volume of rainfall, runoff and drainage. The water confluences between neighboring depressions are provided when the water level exceeds the outlet of a certain depression. Numerical solutions achieved through a dichotomy are introduced to obtain the water level. Therefore, the continuous inundation process can be divided into different time intervals to obtain a series of inundation scenarios. The main campus of Beijing Normal University (BNU was used as a case study to simulate the “7.21” storm inundation event to validate the usability and suitability of the proposed methods. In comparing the simulation results with in-situ observations, the proposed method is accurate and effective, with significantly lower drainage data requirements being obtained. The proposed methods will also be useful for urban drainage design and city inundation emergency preparations.

  18. Creation of an Empirical Energy-Balance Based Snow Module Simulating Both Snowmelt and Snow Accumulation for Mountain Hydrology

    Science.gov (United States)

    Riboust, P.; Le Moine, N.; Thirel, G.; Ribstein, P.

    2015-12-01

    In Nordic and mountainous regions, hydrological processes are more complex than for regular rainfall-driven watersheds. Snow accumulates in winter, acting as a reservoir, and melts during late spring and summer. In order to take into account these additional natural processes present in mountainous watersheds, snow modules have been created in order to help rainfall-runoff models to simulate river discharge. Many empirical degree-day snow models have been designed to simulate snowmelt and river discharge when coupled to a rainfall runoff model, but few of them simulate correctly the amount of snow water equivalent (SWE) at point scale. Simulating correctly not only the amount of snowmelt but also the water content of the snowpack has several potential advantages: it allows improving the model reliability and performance for short-term and long-term prediction, spatial regionalization, and it makes it possible to perform data assimilation using observed snow measurements. The objective of our study is to create a new simple empirical snow module, with a structure allowing the use of snow data for calibration or assimilation. We used a model structure close to the snow model defined by M.T. Walter (2005) where each of the processes of the energy balance is parameterized using only temperature and precipitation data. The conductive fluxes into the snowpack have been modeled using analyticalsolutions to the heat equation with phase change. This model which is in-between the degree-day and the physical energy-balance approaches. It has the advantages to use only temperature and precipitation which arewidely available data and to take account of energy balance processes without being computationally intensive. Another advantage is that all state variables of the model should be comparable with observable measurements.For the moment, the snow module has been parameterized at point scale and has been tested over Switzerland and the US, using MeteoSwiss and SNOTEL USGS

  19. Gypsies in the palace: Experimentalist's view on the use of 3-D physics-based simulation of hillslope hydrological response

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, A.L.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Tromp-Van Meerveld, I.; Peters, N.E.

    2010-01-01

    As a fundamental unit of the landscape, hillslopes are studied for their retention and release of water and nutrients across a wide range of ecosystems. The understanding of these near-surface processes is relevant to issues of runoff generation, groundwater-surface water interactions, catchment export of nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, contaminants (e.g. mercury) and ultimately surface water health. We develop a 3-D physics-based representation of the Panola Mountain Research Watershed experimental hillslope using the TOUGH2 sub-surface flow and transport simulator. A recent investigation of sub-surface flow within this experimental hillslope has generated important knowledge of threshold rainfall-runoff response and its relation to patterns of transient water table development. This work has identified components of the 3-D sub-surface, such as bedrock topography, that contribute to changing connectivity in saturated zones and the generation of sub-surface stormflow. Here, we test the ability of a 3-D hillslope model (both calibrated and uncalibrated) to simulate forested hillslope rainfall-runoff response and internal transient sub-surface stormflow dynamics. We also provide a transparent illustration of physics-based model development, issues of parameterization, examples of model rejection and usefulness of data types (e.g. runoff, mean soil moisture and transient water table depth) to the model enterprise. Our simulations show the inability of an uncalibrated model based on laboratory and field characterization of soil properties and topography to successfully simulate the integrated hydrological response or the distributed water table within the soil profile. Although not an uncommon result, the failure of the field-based characterized model to represent system behaviour is an important challenge that continues to vex scientists at many scales. We focus our attention particularly on examining the influence of bedrock permeability, soil anisotropy and

  20. Geomorphological surveys and software simulations for rock fall hazard assessment: a case study in the Italian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Devoto, S.; Boccali, C.; Podda, F.

    2014-12-01

    In northern Italy, fast-moving landslides represent a significant threat to the population and human facilities. In the eastern portion of the Italian Alps, rock falls are recurrent and are often responsible for casualties or severe damage to roads and buildings. The above-cited type of landslide is frequent in mountain ranges, is characterised by strong relief energy and is triggered by earthquakes or copious rainfall, which often exceed 2000 mm yr-1. These factors cause morphological dynamics with intense slope erosion and degradation processes. This work investigates the appraisal of the rock-fall hazard related to the presence of several large unstable blocks located at the top of a limestone peak, approximately 500 m NW with respect to the Village of Cimolais. Field surveys recognised a limestone block exceeding a volume of 400 m3 and identified this block as the most hazardous for Cimolais Village because of its proximity to the rocky cliff. A first assessment of the possible transit and stop areas has been investigated through in-depth traditional activities, such as geomorphological mapping and aerial photo analysis. The output of field surveys was a detailed land use map, which provided a fundamental starting point for rock fall software analysis. The geomorphological observations were correlated with DTMs derived by regional topography and Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS) surveys to recognise possible rock fall routes. To simulate properly rock fall trajectories with a hybrid computer program, particular attention was devoted to the correct quantification of rates of input parameters, such as restitution coefficients and horizontal acceleration associated to earthquakes, which historically occur in this portion of Italy. The simulation outputs regarding the distribution of rock fall end points and kinetic energy along rock falling paths highlight the hazardous situation for Cimolais Village. Because of this reason, mitigation works have been suggested to

  1. Geomorphological surveys and software simulations for rock fall hazard assessment: a case study in the Italian Alps

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. Devoto

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available In northern Italy, fast-moving landslides represent a significant threat to the population and human facilities. In the eastern portion of the Italian Alps, rock falls are recurrent and are often responsible for casualties or severe damage to roads and buildings. The above-cited type of landslide is frequent in mountain ranges, is characterised by strong relief energy and is triggered by earthquakes or copious rainfall, which often exceed 2000 mm yr−1. These factors cause morphological dynamics with intense slope erosion and degradation processes. This work investigates the appraisal of the rock-fall hazard related to the presence of several large unstable blocks located at the top of a limestone peak, approximately 500 m NW with respect to the Village of Cimolais. Field surveys recognised a limestone block exceeding a volume of 400 m3 and identified this block as the most hazardous for Cimolais Village because of its proximity to the rocky cliff. A first assessment of the possible transit and stop areas has been investigated through in-depth traditional activities, such as geomorphological mapping and aerial photo analysis. The output of field surveys was a detailed land use map, which provided a fundamental starting point for rock fall software analysis. The geomorphological observations were correlated with DTMs derived by regional topography and Airborne Laser Scanning (ALS surveys to recognise possible rock fall routes. To simulate properly rock fall trajectories with a hybrid computer program, particular attention was devoted to the correct quantification of rates of input parameters, such as restitution coefficients and horizontal acceleration associated to earthquakes, which historically occur in this portion of Italy. The simulation outputs regarding the distribution of rock fall end points and kinetic energy along rock falling paths highlight the hazardous situation for Cimolais Village. Because of this reason, mitigation works have

  2. Baryon Cycling in the Low-Redshift Circumgalactic Medium: A Comparison of Simulations to the COS-Halos Survey

    CERN Document Server

    Ford, Amanda Brady; Dave, Romeel; Tumlinson, Jason; Bordoloi, Rongmon; Katz, Neal; Kollmeier, Juna A; Oppenheimer, Benjamin D; Peeples, Molly S; Prochaska, Jason X; Weinberg, David H

    2015-01-01

    We analyze the low-redshift (z~0.2) circumgalactic medium by comparing absorption-line data from the COS-Halos Survey to absorption around a matched galaxy sample from two cosmological hydrodynamic simulations. The models include different prescriptions for galactic outflows, namely hybrid energy/momentum driven wind (ezw), and constant winds (cw). We extract for comparison direct observables including equivalent widths, covering factors, ion ratios, and kinematics. Both wind models are generally in good agreement with these observations for HI and certain low ionization metal lines, but show poorer agreement with higher ionization metal lines including SiIII and OVI that are well-observed by COS-Halos. These discrepancies suggest that both wind models predict too much cool, metal-enriched gas and not enough hot gas, and/or that the metals are not sufficiently well-mixed. This may reflect our model assumption of ejecting outflows as cool and unmixing gas. Our ezw simulation includes a heuristic prescription t...

  3. Modelling and simulation of dielectric heterostructures: a physical survey from an historical perspective

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Brosseau, Christian [Laboratoire d' Electronique et Systemes de Telecommunications and Departement de Physique, Universite de Bretagne Occidentale, CS 93837, 6 avenue Le Gorgeu, 29238 Brest Cedex 3 (France)

    2006-04-07

    simulations increase, it might become possible to routinely design on a computer, at least in part, a combination of materials chosen specifically to achieve a desired response to an incident electromagnetic wave for a variety of technological and industrial processes ranging from electromagnetic shielding and capacitive video disk units to mammalian tissue simulants. (review article)

  4. A survey of dual active galactic nuclei in simulations of galaxy mergers: frequency and properties

    CERN Document Server

    Capelo, Pedro R; Volonteri, Marta; Mayer, Lucio; Bellovary, Jillian M; Shen, Sijing

    2016-01-01

    We investigate the simultaneous triggering of active galactic nuclei (AGN) in merging galaxies, using a large suite of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations. We compute dual-AGN observability time-scales using bolometric, X-ray, and Eddington-ratio thresholds, confirming that dual activity from supermassive black holes (BHs) is generally higher at late pericentric passages, before a merger remnant has formed, especially at high luminosities. For typical minor and major mergers, dual activity lasts ~20-70 and ~100-160 Myr, respectively. We also explore the effects of X-ray obscuration from gas, finding that the dual-AGN time decreases at most by a factor of ~2, and of contamination from star formation. Using projected separations and velocity differences rather than three-dimensional quantities can decrease the dual-AGN time-scales by up to ~4, and we apply filters which mimic current observational-resolution limitations. In agreement with observations, we find that, for a sample of major mergers hosting ...

  5. Intrinsic alignment of simulated galaxies in the cosmic web: implications for weak lensing surveys

    CERN Document Server

    Codis, Sandrine; Dubois, Yohan; Pichon, Christophe; Benabed, Karim; Desjacques, Vincent; Pogosyan, Dmitry; Devriendt, Julien; Slyz, Adrianne

    2014-01-01

    The intrinsic alignment of galaxy shapes and their cross-correlation with the surrounding dark matter tidal field are investigated using the 160 000, z=1.2 synthetic galaxies extracted from the high-resolution cosmological hydrodynamical simulation Horizon-AGN. One- and two-point statistics of the spin of the stellar component are measured as a function of mass and colour. For the low-mass galaxies, this spin is locally aligned with the tidal field `filamentary' direction while, for the high-mass galaxies, it is perpendicular to both filaments and walls. The bluest galaxies of our synthetic catalog are more strongly correlated with the surrounding tidal field than the reddest galaxies, and this correlation extends up to 10 Mpc/h comoving distance. We also report a correlation of the projected ellipticities of blue, intermediate mass galaxies on a similar scale at a level of 10^(-4) which could be a concern for cosmic shear measurements. We do not report any measurable intrinsic alignments of the reddest galax...

  6. CALCLENS: weak lensing simulations for large-area sky surveys and second-order effects in cosmic shear power spectra

    Science.gov (United States)

    Becker, Matthew R.

    2013-10-01

    I present a new algorithm, Curved-sky grAvitational Lensing for Cosmological Light conE simulatioNS (CALCLENS), for efficiently computing weak gravitational lensing shear signals from large N-body light cone simulations over a curved sky. This new algorithm properly accounts for the sky curvature and boundary conditions, is able to produce redshift-dependent shear signals including corrections to the Born approximation by using multiple-plane ray tracing and properly computes the lensed images of source galaxies in the light cone. The key feature of this algorithm is a new, computationally efficient Poisson solver for the sphere that combines spherical harmonic transform and multigrid methods. As a result, large areas of sky (˜10 000 square degrees) can be ray traced efficiently at high resolution using only a few hundred cores. Using this new algorithm and curved-sky calculations that only use a slower but more accurate spherical harmonic transform Poisson solver, I study the convergence, shear E-mode, shear B-mode and rotation mode power spectra. Employing full-sky E/B-mode decompositions, I confirm that the numerically computed shear B-mode and rotation mode power spectra are equal at high accuracy (≲1 per cent) as expected from perturbation theory up to second order. Coupled with realistic galaxy populations placed in large N-body light cone simulations, this new algorithm is ideally suited for the construction of synthetic weak lensing shear catalogues to be used to test for systematic effects in data analysis procedures for upcoming large-area sky surveys. The implementation presented in this work, written in C and employing widely available software libraries to maintain portability, is publicly available at http://code.google.com/p/calclens.

  7. An Experimental Simulation Method of Erosion Process on Gully Erosion in Loess Plateau in China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gao, Jianen; Zhang, Yuanxing

    2017-04-01

    In view of simulation difficultment of the field gully erosion process because of complex of rainfall runoff erosion mechanism and gully geometry a design means and experimentation technology and its verification test were given based on similarity theory and hydrodynamic principles. The basic ideas was that the erosion process of the field erosion gully was forecast by constructing similar model. The model and antetype should be in obedience to the same physical equations of rainfall, runoff, erosion, sediment transport, bed deformation and Soil water transport. The geometric, kinematical and dynamic similarity must be obeyed for these models. The primary similarity scale relation expressions were the ones of the geometric, rainfall, flow, erosion sediment transport and soil water movement similarity etc. The similarity of the hydraulic boundary was the necessary and sufficient condition between the model and the prototype. The gully prototype is one of Majiagou of Ansai county of Yanan City of Shaanxi Province in China. Its location is 36°53'55.75"N and 109°13'39.08"E. The model experiment wan carried out in State Key Laboratory of Soil Erosion and Dry land Farming On the Loess Plateau in Institute of Soil and Water Conservation of Northwest A&F University. First soil was selected by starting velocity similar. Second, the normal and scale 10 experiment model was built under complying with the similarities of geometric, rainfall, flow, erosion production sediment transport and bed deformation etc. The model hydraulic boundary from the prototype was the factor of the test process of rainfall. The experiment results indicated that the extreme rainstorm gully erosion process of the prototype could be reappeared. The equivalent rainfall process of gully prototype were that the rainfall intensity was 1.25 mm/min and the lasting time was 508 min and precipitation was 636mmn. Both the erosion amount and the erosion gully topography of the scale model were successfully

  8. Runoff simulation sensitivity to remotely sensed initial soil water content

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goodrich, D. C.; Schmugge, T. J.; Jackson, T. J.; Unkrich, C. L.; Keefer, T. O.; Parry, R.; Bach, L. B.; Amer, S. A.

    1994-05-01

    A variety of aircraft remotely sensed and conventional ground-based measurements of volumetric soil water content (SW) were made over two subwatersheds (4.4 and 631 ha) of the U.S. Department of Agriculture's Agricultural Research Service Walnut Gulch experimental watershed during the 1990 monsoon season. Spatially distributed soil water contents estimated remotely from the NASA push broom microwave radiometer (PBMR), an Institute of Radioengineering and Electronics (IRE) multifrequency radiometer, and three ground-based point methods were used to define prestorm initial SW for a distributed rainfall-runoff model (KINEROS; Woolhiser et al., 1990) at a small catchment scale (4.4 ha). At a medium catchment scale (631 ha or 6.31 km2) spatially distributed PBMR SW data were aggregated via stream order reduction. The impacts of the various spatial averages of SW on runoff simulations are discussed and are compared to runoff simulations using SW estimates derived from a simple daily water balance model. It was found that at the small catchment scale the SW data obtained from any of the measurement methods could be used to obtain reasonable runoff predictions. At the medium catchment scale, a basin-wide remotely sensed average of initial water content was sufficient for runoff simulations. This has important implications for the possible use of satellite-based microwave soil moisture data to define prestorm SW because the low spatial resolutions of such sensors may not seriously impact runoff simulations under the conditions examined. However, at both the small and medium basin scale, adequate resources must be devoted to proper definition of the input rainfall to achieve reasonable runoff simulations.

  9. Sub-Daily Runoff Simulations with Parameters Inferred at the Daily Time Scale: Impacts of the temporal distribution of rainfall in parameter inference.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reynolds Puga, Jose Eduardo; Halldin, Sven; Xu, Chong-Yu; Seibert, Jan

    2016-04-01

    Flood forecasting at sub-daily time scales are commonly required in regions where sub-daily observational data are not available. This has led to approaches to estimate model parameters at sub-daily time scales from data with a lower time resolution. Reynolds et al. (2015) show that parameters inferred at one time scale (e.g., daily) may be used directly for runoff simulations at other time scales (e.g., 1 h) when the modelling time step is the same and sufficiently small during calibration and simulation periods. Their approach produced parameter distributions at daily and sub-daily time scales that were similar and relatively constant across the time scales. The transfer of parameter values across time scales resulted in small model-performance decrease as opposed to when the parameter sets inferred at their respective time scale were used. This decrease in performance may be attributed to the degree of information lost, in terms of the physical processes occurring at short time scales, when the rainfall-runoff data used during the parameter-inference phase become coarser. It is not yet fully understood how the aggregation (or disaggregation) of the rainfall-runoff data affects parameter inference. In this study we analyse the impacts of the temporal distribution of rainfall for inferring model parameters at a coarse time scale and their effects in model performance when they are used at finer time scales, where data may not be available for calibration. The motivation is to improve runoff predictions and model performance at sub-daily time scales when parameters inferred at the daily scale are used for simulating at these scales. First, we calibrated the HBV-light conceptual hydrological model at the daily scale, but modelled discharge internally in 1-h time steps using 3 disaggregation procedures of the rainfall data. This was done in an attempt to maximise the information content of the input data used for calibration at the daily scale. One disaggregation

  10. Simulation of surface runoff in the Wujiang River watershed based on GIS

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    TANG Congguo; LIU Congqiang

    2007-01-01

    Surface runoff in the Wujiang River watershed was simulated by a GIS-based method using precipitation, hydrology data, and land-use data. The volume of surface runoff is chiefly controlled by climates, topographical characteristics and types of land use at the watershed. Five subwatersheds that can represent the whole watershed were chosen and their average annual precipitation, average annual surface runoff and current land use were calculated respectively in the grid model of the Wujiang River watershed based on the climate and hydrology data from 1965 to 2000 and the land-use data acquired in the year of 2000. Surface runoff is assumed to be a function of precipitation and land use and the multiple regression tool is used to determine the relationship between surface runoff, precipitation and present land use. Thus, the rainfall-runoff model for each land-use type has been established. When calibrating these models, the results show that the percent errors are all below 7%, which indicates that the accuracy of this simulation is high.

  11. [Parameter identification and validation of SWMM in simulation of impervious urban land surface runoff].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Xin; Du, Peng-fei; Li, Zhi-yi; Wang, Hao-chang

    2008-06-01

    The purpose of this paper is the application of storm water management model (SWMM) in simulating runoff hydrology and water quality. The study chose a roof as the typical impervious urban land surface, and monitored several rainfall-runoff events for parameter identification. We identified and validated hydrological and water quality parameters, using Monte Carlo sampling method and HSY algorithm, which are based on uncertainty analysis. Results show that impervious urban land surface runoff model includes 6 critical parameters, which are depression storage (S-imperv), Manning's n (N-imperv), maximum buildup possible (max buildup), buildup rate constant (rate constant), washoff coefficient (coefficient), and washoff exponent (exponent). Identification of S-imperv and N-imperv could use least square error as objectives, while others could use errors of event pollution load and peak concentration of pollutant as objectives. The identification results of the 6 parameters are N-imperv 0.012-0.025,S-imperv 0-0.7, max buildup 15-30,rate constant 0.2-0.8,coefficient 0.01-0.05, and exponent 1.0-1.2. Regional sensitivities of these parameters in non-ascending order are coefficient, S-imperv, N-imperv, max buildup, exponent, and rate constant. Identified parameters are able to be validated by SWMM model. However, current model structures still have some difficulties in simulating runoff pollutant concentration curves caused by some special rain patterns.

  12. Simulating a Lowland Flash Flood in a Long-term Experimental Watershed with 7 Standard Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Torfs, P.; Brauer, C.; Teuling, R.; Kloosterman, P.; Willems, G.; Verkooijen, B.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2012-12-01

    On 26 August 2010 the 6.5 km2 Hupsel Brook catchment in The Netherlands, which has been the experimental watershed employed by Wageningen University since the 1960s, was struck by an exceptionally heavy rainfall event (return period > 1000 years). We investigated the unprecedented flash flood triggered by this event and this study improved our understanding of the dynamics of such lowland flash floods (Brauer et al., 2011). During this extreme event some thresholds became apparent that do not play a role during average conditions and are not incorporated in most rainfall-runoff models. This may lead to errors when these models are used to forecast runoff responses to rainfall events that are extreme today, but likely to become less extreme when climate changes. The aim of this research project was to find out to what extent different types of rainfall-runoff models are able to simulate this extreme event, and, if not, which processes, thresholds or parameters are lacking to describe the event accurately. Five of the 7 employed models treat the catchment as a lumped system. This group includes the well-known HBV and Sacramento models. The Wageningen Model, which has been developed in our group, has a structure similar to HBV and the Sacramento Model. The SWAP (Soil, Water, Atmosphere, Plant) Model represents a physically-based model of a single soil column, but has been used here as a representation for the whole catchment. The LGSI (Lowland Groundwater Surface water Interaction) Model uses probability distributions to account for spatial variability in groundwater depth and resulting flow routes in the catchment. We did not only analyze how accurately each model simulated the discharge, but also whether groundwater and soil moisture dynamics and resulting flow processes were captured adequately. The 6th model is a spatially distributed model called SIMGRO. It is based on a MODFLOW groundwater model, extended with an unsaturated zone based on the previously

  13. The XXL Survey. I. Scientific motivations - XMM-Newton observing plan - Follow-up observations and simulation programme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierre, M.; Pacaud, F.; Adami, C.; Alis, S.; Altieri, B.; Baran, N.; Benoist, C.; Birkinshaw, M.; Bongiorno, A.; Bremer, M. N.; Brusa, M.; Butler, A.; Ciliegi, P.; Chiappetti, L.; Clerc, N.; Corasaniti, P. S.; Coupon, J.; De Breuck, C.; Democles, J.; Desai, S.; Delhaize, J.; Devriendt, J.; Dubois, Y.; Eckert, D.; Elyiv, A.; Ettori, S.; Evrard, A.; Faccioli, L.; Farahi, A.; Ferrari, C.; Finet, F.; Fotopoulou, S.; Fourmanoit, N.; Gandhi, P.; Gastaldello, F.; Gastaud, R.; Georgantopoulos, I.; Giles, P.; Guennou, L.; Guglielmo, V.; Horellou, C.; Husband, K.; Huynh, M.; Iovino, A.; Kilbinger, M.; Koulouridis, E.; Lavoie, S.; Le Brun, A. M. C.; Le Fevre, J. P.; Lidman, C.; Lieu, M.; Lin, C. A.; Mantz, A.; Maughan, B. J.; Maurogordato, S.; McCarthy, I. G.; McGee, S.; Melin, J. B.; Melnyk, O.; Menanteau, F.; Novak, M.; Paltani, S.; Plionis, M.; Poggianti, B. M.; Pomarede, D.; Pompei, E.; Ponman, T. J.; Ramos-Ceja, M. E.; Ranalli, P.; Rapetti, D.; Raychaudury, S.; Reiprich, T. H.; Rottgering, H.; Rozo, E.; Rykoff, E.; Sadibekova, T.; Santos, J.; Sauvageot, J. L.; Schimd, C.; Sereno, M.; Smith, G. P.; Smolčić, V.; Snowden, S.; Spergel, D.; Stanford, S.; Surdej, J.; Valageas, P.; Valotti, A.; Valtchanov, I.; Vignali, C.; Willis, J.; Ziparo, F.

    2016-06-01

    Context. The quest for the cosmological parameters that describe our universe continues to motivate the scientific community to undertake very large survey initiatives across the electromagnetic spectrum. Over the past two decades, the Chandra and XMM-Newton observatories have supported numerous studies of X-ray-selected clusters of galaxies, active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and the X-ray background. The present paper is the first in a series reporting results of the XXL-XMM survey; it comes at a time when the Planck mission results are being finalised. Aims: We present the XXL Survey, the largest XMM programme totaling some 6.9 Ms to date and involving an international consortium of roughly 100 members. The XXL Survey covers two extragalactic areas of 25 deg2 each at a point-source sensitivity of ~5 × 10-15 erg s-1 cm-2 in the [0.5-2] keV band (completeness limit). The survey's main goals are to provide constraints on the dark energy equation of state from the space-time distribution of clusters of galaxies and to serve as a pathfinder for future, wide-area X-ray missions. We review science objectives, including cluster studies, AGN evolution, and large-scale structure, that are being conducted with the support of approximately 30 follow-up programmes. Methods: We describe the 542 XMM observations along with the associated multi-λ and numerical simulation programmes. We give a detailed account of the X-ray processing steps and describe innovative tools being developed for the cosmological analysis. Results: The paper provides a thorough evaluation of the X-ray data, including quality controls, photon statistics, exposure and background maps, and sky coverage. Source catalogue construction and multi-λ associations are briefly described. This material will be the basis for the calculation of the cluster and AGN selection functions, critical elements of the cosmological and science analyses. Conclusions: The XXL multi-λ data set will have a unique lasting legacy

  14. Effects of Land Use Changes on the Runoff in the Landscape Based on Hydrological Simulation in HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS Using Different Elevation Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Divín

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to determine the effects of land use changes on the runoff in the landscape by means of hydrological modelling. Our partial aim is also to determine the effect of different elevation data and define optimal data sources for this modelling. The research was conducted on the Starozuberský stream experimental watershed. For comparing elevation models, three scenarios were developed with different input data. Based on a comparison of these models an optimal data source for hydrological modelling was selected. To simulate the change in land use, we have created two scenarios based either upon the current land use and historical data from the fifties of the twentieth century. Comparison was carried out using the HEC-HMS software interface for rainfall-runoff simulation and HEC-RAS for the flooding simulation. Data for the simulation were prepared using the ESRI ArcGIS extensions, namely HEC- GeoHMS and HEC-GeoRAS.

  15. Army Aviation Simulation Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-07-01

    time - perhaps before Comanche and Apache Longbow come on line. Conversely, the high average age and grade level implies that staff is well postured ... evaluacion of VE FY93 control panel operation Demonstration & evaluation of VE FY94/FY95 stick/throttle operation Demonstration & evaluation of VE FY96/FY97

  16. Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gould, Derek A; Chalmers, Nicholas; Johnson, Sheena J

    2012-01-01

    Recognition of the many limitations of traditional apprenticeship training is driving new approaches to learning medical procedural skills. Among simulation technologies and methods available today, computer-based systems are topical and bring the benefits of automated, repeatable, and reliable p...... performance assessments. Human factors research is central to simulator model development that is relevant to real-world imaging-guided interventional tasks and to the credentialing programs in which it would be used.......Recognition of the many limitations of traditional apprenticeship training is driving new approaches to learning medical procedural skills. Among simulation technologies and methods available today, computer-based systems are topical and bring the benefits of automated, repeatable, and reliable...

  17. Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2006-01-01

    Ross's Simulation, Fourth Edition introduces aspiring and practicing actuaries, engineers, computer scientists and others to the practical aspects of constructing computerized simulation studies to analyze and interpret real phenomena. Readers learn to apply results of these analyses to problems in a wide variety of fields to obtain effective, accurate solutions and make predictions about future outcomes. This text explains how a computer can be used to generate random numbers, and how to use these random numbers to generate the behavior of a stochastic model over time. It presents the statist

  18. Research on the Simulation of Quality in Rainwater Pipe Networks%雨水管网水质过程线模拟研究

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    薛英文; 文倩倩; 李璐; 喻桂容

    2011-01-01

    以雨水中污染物质的浓度为研究对象,采用一阶负荷模型与阶式CSTR模型,对雨水地表径流过程与管网中的传输过程进行模拟,得出了雨水管网进出口污染物质的浓度变化过程线,并通过实例工程进行验证.模拟结果表明,该模拟方法结果稳定,得出的雨水管网水质过程线可以用于研究雨水造成的污染情况,并对雨水受纳水体的修复提供理论数据.%Using first-order load model and Tile-CSTR model, this paper simulates rainfall runoff process and the transmission process in pipeline networks for the study of pollutants concentration in rainwater. The simulation study obtains the change process line of pollutants concentration in rainwater pipe networks. This process line is verified by actual project. The results show that this simulation has stable results; its process line can be used to study the pollution caused by rain. Finally, these results can provide theoretical data for the restoration of rain-receiving water.

  19. Research on the influence of piloti on residential block’s outdoor thermal comfort by questionnaire survey and coupled simulation method in Guangzhou, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xi, Tianyu; Jin, Hong; Mochida, Akashi; Ding, Jianhua

    2017-06-01

    Piloti is commonly used to optimize the outdoor thermal environment in subtropical climate cities, and there are few studies regarding to the systematic influence of piloti on outdoor thermal comfort. As the outdoor thermal comfort differed by various climates and locations, this work firstly carried out a questionnaire survey in Guangzhou, China, to study on the local acceptance rate (TSV is lower than 1.5) during different SET* intervals. Secondly, a series of cases were simulated by coupled simulation method, which considering convection, radiation and conduction, offering high precision prediction results. At last, by adopting SET* as standard index, taking both of the questionnaire survey result and ASHRAE standard into consideration, the influence of piloti on residential block’s outdoor thermal comfort was analysed and discussed.

  20. Scale effects of Hortonian overland flow and rainfall-runoff dynamics in a West African catena landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, van de N.C.; Stomph, T.J.; Ridder, de N.

    2000-01-01

    Hortonian runoff was measured from plots with lengths of 1?25 and 12 m, and at watershed level for rainstorms during the 1996 rainy season in cental Côte d'Ivoire, Africa. A clear reduction in runoff coefficients was found with increasing slope lengths, giving order of magnitude differences between

  1. Effect of formal and informal likelihood functions on uncertainty assessment in a single event rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourali, Mahrouz; Ghahraman, Bijan; Pourreza-Bilondi, Mohsen; Davary, Kamran

    2016-09-01

    In the present study, DREAM(ZS), Differential Evolution Adaptive Metropolis combined with both formal and informal likelihood functions, is used to investigate uncertainty of parameters of the HEC-HMS model in Tamar watershed, Golestan province, Iran. In order to assess the uncertainty of 24 parameters used in HMS, three flood events were used to calibrate and one flood event was used to validate the posterior distributions. Moreover, performance of seven different likelihood functions (L1-L7) was assessed by means of DREAM(ZS)approach. Four likelihood functions, L1-L4, Nash-Sutcliffe (NS) efficiency, Normalized absolute error (NAE), Index of agreement (IOA), and Chiew-McMahon efficiency (CM), is considered as informal, whereas remaining (L5-L7) is represented in formal category. L5 focuses on the relationship between the traditional least squares fitting and the Bayesian inference, and L6, is a hetereoscedastic maximum likelihood error (HMLE) estimator. Finally, in likelihood function L7, serial dependence of residual errors is accounted using a first-order autoregressive (AR) model of the residuals. According to the results, sensitivities of the parameters strongly depend on the likelihood function, and vary for different likelihood functions. Most of the parameters were better defined by formal likelihood functions L5 and L7 and showed a high sensitivity to model performance. Posterior cumulative distributions corresponding to the informal likelihood functions L1, L2, L3, L4 and the formal likelihood function L6 are approximately the same for most of the sub-basins, and these likelihood functions depict almost a similar effect on sensitivity of parameters. 95% total prediction uncertainty bounds bracketed most of the observed data. Considering all the statistical indicators and criteria of uncertainty assessment, including RMSE, KGE, NS, P-factor and R-factor, results showed that DREAM(ZS) algorithm performed better under formal likelihood functions L5 and L7, but likelihood function L5 may result in biased and unreliable estimation of parameters due to violation of the residualerror assumptions. Thus, likelihood function L7 provides posterior distribution of model parameters credibly and therefore can be employed for further applications.

  2. Distributed numerical rainfall-runoff modelling in an arid region using Thematic Mapper data and a geographical information system

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Sharma, K.D.; Menenti, M.; Huygen, J.; Fernandez, P.C.

    1996-01-01

    A transient one-dimensional finite-difference model describing the partitioning of precipitation between surface run-off, soil moisture storage and deep percolation, through the coupling of saturated and unsaturated zones, has been implemented in a geographical information system including data on v

  3. Data-Based Comparison of Frequency Analysis Approaches: Methodological Framework and Application to Rainfall / Runoff Data in France

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lang, M.; Renard, B.; Kochanek, K.; Sauquet, E.; Garavaglia, F.; Paquet, E.; Soubeyroux, J.; Jourdain, S.; Veysseire, J.; Borchi, F.; Neppel, L.; Najib, K.; Arnaud, P.; Aubert, Y.; Auffray, A.

    2010-12-01

    Frequency analysis (FA) is one of the cornerstones of hazard quantification and risk assessment. Its basic objective is to estimate the distribution of some environmental variable X, e.g. annual maximum of the areal rainfall over some catchment, annual maximum flood, etc. This distribution can be used to estimate the exceedance probability of a given value of X (often expressed in terms of return period), or alternatively, to estimate the p-quantile of X, i.e. the value having an exceedance probability equal to 1-p. The estimation of quantiles is of primary importance since they are used to design civil engineering structures (e.g. dams, reservoirs, bridges) or to map hazard-prone areas where restrictions may be enforced (e.g. building restrictions in flood zones). FA has been the subject of extensive research, yielding an abundance of approaches. In practice, FA users and practitioners may feel lost facing such an abundance of methods. Consequently, several initiatives aimed at assisting users in realizing their analyses using best-practice methods. In addition to these end-user-oriented guideline documents, a large number of comparisons between competing methods have been reported in the research literature. The French National research project EXTRAFLO aims to perform a thorough comparison between FA approaches currently used in France, based on an extensive dataset of long series of rainfall and runoff. This poster provides a detailed description of the methodology used to perform the comparison, and presents preliminary results of its application to large rainfall and runoff datasets. More precisely, the following topics are presented: 1. Presentation of the datasets, including more than 1000 series of daily runoff and more than 2000 series of daily rainfall 2. Decomposition of the datasets into calibration/validation sub-samples 3. The issue of scrutinizing uncertainty estimates is discussed, and a method based on the concept of predictive distribution is proposed in order to compare the reliability of competing uncertainty estimates. 4. Reliability indices are derived in order to compare the performances of competing methods on an objective basis. 5. This methodological framework is applied to the datasets and preliminary results are discussed.

  4. "A not completely satisfactory attempt" - peak discharges and rainfall-runoff relations for Javanese rivers between 1880 and 1940

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ertsen, M. W.

    2011-02-01

    In the early 19th century, the Dutch colonial power started to build irrigation works. A main problem for Dutch irrigation engineers on Java was how to ensure that the structures they built remained intact. The peak discharge regime of a river was an issue closely related to dam safety. Modifying the approach of Swiss engineer Lauterburg (1877), Dutch irrigation engineer Melchior developed a methodology to determine design peak flows of Javanese rivers. The Melchior methodology has been the standard method throughout the colonial period, despite sometimes severe criticisms on its appropriateness. In independent Indonesia, the approach developed by Melchior continues to be applied. This paper discusses and explains the endurance of the method developed by Melchior. The focus is on the scientific interaction between different participants. The paper shows how participants from these circles debated and which arguments they exchanged.

  5. "A not completely satisfactory attempt": peak discharges and rainfall-runoff relations for Javanese rivers between 1880 and 1940

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Ertsen, M.W.

    2011-01-01

    In the early 19th century, the Dutch colonial power started to build irrigation works. A main problem for Dutch irrigation engineers on Java was how to ensure that the structures they built remained intact. The peak discharge regime of a river was an issue closely related to dam safety. Modifying th

  6. A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

  7. Rainfall-runoff modeling of the Chapel Branch Creek Watershed using GIS-based rational and SCS-CN methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth N. Mihalik; Norm S. Levine; Devendra M. Amatya

    2008-01-01

    Chapel Branch Creek (CBC), located within the Town of Santee adjacent to Lake Marion in Orangeburg County, SC, is listed on the SC 2004 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies due to elevated levels of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), chlorophyll-a, and pH. In this study, using a GIS-based approach, two runoff modeling methods, the Rational and SCS-CN methods, have been...

  8. Simulated JWST/NIRISS Spectroscopy of Anticipated TESS Planets and Selected Super-Earths Discovered from K2 and Ground-Based Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louie, Dana; Albert, Loic; Deming, Drake

    2017-01-01

    The 2018 launch of James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), coupled with the 2017 launch of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), heralds a new era in Exoplanet Science, with TESS projected to detect over one thousand transiting sub-Neptune-sized planets (Ricker et al, 2014), and JWST offering unprecedented spectroscopic capabilities. Sullivan et al (2015) used Monte Carlo simulations to predict the properties of the planets that TESS is likely to detect, and published a catalog of 962 simulated TESS planets. Prior to TESS launch, the re-scoped Kepler K2 mission and ground-based surveys such as MEarth continue to seek nearby Earth-like exoplanets orbiting M-dwarf host stars. The exoplanet community will undoubtedly employ JWST for atmospheric characterization follow-up studies of promising exoplanets, but the targeted planets for these studies must be chosen wisely to maximize JWST science return. The goal of this project is to estimate the capabilities of JWST’s Near InfraRed Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (NIRISS)—operating with the GR700XD grism in Single Object Slitless Spectrography (SOSS) mode—during observations of exoplanets transiting their host stars. We compare results obtained for the simulated TESS planets, confirmed K2-discovered super-Earths, and exoplanets discovered using ground-based surveys. By determining the target planet characteristics that result in the most favorable JWST observing conditions, we can optimize the choice of target planets in future JWST follow-on atmospheric characterization studies.

  9. Attributes for NHDPlus Catchments (Version 1.1) for the Conterminous United States: Mean Annual R-factor, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This data set represents the average annual R-factor, rainfall-runoff erosivity measure, compiled for every catchment of NHDPlus for the conterminous United States....

  10. Attributes for MRB_E2RF1 Catchments by Major River Basins in the Conterminous United States: Mean Annual R-factor, 1971-2000

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — This tabular data set represents the average annual R-factor, rainfall-runoff erosivity measure, compiled for every MRB_E2RF1 catchment of selected Major River...

  11. Evaluation of Satellite-based Global Hydrologic Simulation using the Distributed CREST Model and Global Runoff Data Centre Archives

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xue, X.; Hong, Y.; Gourley, J. J.; Wang, X.

    2011-12-01

    Flooding is one of the most deadly natural hazards around the world. Distributed hydrologic models can provide the spatial and temporal distribution of precipitation, soil moisture, evapotranspiration and runoff. Implementation of a flood prediction and/or forecast system using a distributed hydrologic model can potentially help mitigate flood-induced hazards. In this study, we propose the use of the Coupled Routing and Excess STorage (CREST) distributed hydrological model driven by real-time rainfall forcing from TRMM-based multi-satellite products and/or precipitation forecast data from the Global Forecast System model (GFS), combined with automatic parameter optimization methods, to estimate hydrological fluxes, storages and inundated areas. Evaluations show that: 1) the capability of real-time streamflow prediction and/or forecast at drainage outlets and identification of inundated areas upstream is an achievable goal even for ungauged basins; 2) a-priori, physically-based parameter estimates with CREST reduce the dependence on rainfall-runoff data often required to calibrate distributed hydrologic models; and 3) the validation of CREST simulations of basin discharge are skillful in several basins throughout the world.

  12. Floods simulation in the Crişul Alb River Basin using hydrological model CONSUL

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mic, Rodica Paula; Corbus, Ciprian; Matreata, Marius

    2016-04-01

    For the simulation of floods, in the Crişul Alb River Basin, Romanian hydrological model CONSUL with lumped parameters was used. This deterministic mathematical rainfall-runoff model compute discharge hydrographs on configured river sub-basins, their channel routing and composition on the main river and tributaries and finally their routing and mitigation through reservoirs, according to the schematic representation (topological modelling) of how water flows and integrate in a river basin. After topological modelling 42 sub-basins and 19 river reaches resulted for the Crişul Alb River Basin model configuration, established according to the position of tributaries, hydrometric stations and reservoirs that influence flow. The CONSUL model used as input data, for each sub-basin, average values of precipitation and air temperature determined based on the measured values of weather stations in the basin. Calculation of average values was performed using a pre-processing program of meteorological data from rectangular grid nodes corresponding to Crişul Alb River Basin, averaging being achieved as weighted values based on the representativeness of these nodes for each analyzed sub-basin. Calibration of model parameters was performed by the simulation of 25 rainfall-runoff events from the period 1975 - 2010, chosen to cover a wide range of possible situations in the case of floods formation. By simulating floods from the hydrometric stations located in the closing sections of river sub-basins were determined the infiltration and unit hydrograph parameters and by simulating floods from the hydrometric stations located in the downstream sections of the river reaches hydrometrically controlled were determined the routing equation parameters. The parameters thus determined allow building some generalization relationships of these parameters according to the morphometric characteristics of the river sub-basins (surface, slope) or river reaches (length, slope). Based on these

  13. Influence of River Bed Elevation Survey Configurations and Interpolation Methods on the Accuracy of LIDAR Dtm-Based River Flow Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santillan, J. R.; Serviano, J. L.; Makinano-Santillan, M.; Marqueso, J. T.

    2016-09-01

    In this paper, we investigated how survey configuration and the type of interpolation method can affect the accuracy of river flow simulations that utilize LIDAR DTM integrated with interpolated river bed as its main source of topographic information. Aside from determining the accuracy of the individually-generated river bed topographies, we also assessed the overall accuracy of the river flow simulations in terms of maximum flood depth and extent. Four survey configurations consisting of river bed elevation data points arranged as cross-section (XS), zig-zag (ZZ), river banks-centerline (RBCL), and river banks-centerline-zig-zag (RBCLZZ), and two interpolation methods (Inverse Distance-Weighted and Ordinary Kriging) were considered. Major results show that the choice of survey configuration, rather than the interpolation method, has significant effect on the accuracy of interpolated river bed surfaces, and subsequently on the accuracy of river flow simulations. The RMSEs of the interpolated surfaces and the model results vary from one configuration to another, and depends on how each configuration evenly collects river bed elevation data points. The large RMSEs for the RBCL configuration and the low RMSEs for the XS configuration confirm that as the data points become evenly spaced and cover more portions of the river, the resulting interpolated surface and the river flow simulation where it was used also become more accurate. The XS configuration with Ordinary Kriging (OK) as interpolation method provided the best river bed interpolation and river flow simulation results. The RBCL configuration, regardless of the interpolation algorithm used, resulted to least accurate river bed surfaces and simulation results. Based on the accuracy analysis, the use of XS configuration to collect river bed data points and applying the OK method to interpolate the river bed topography are the best methods to use to produce satisfactory river flow simulation outputs. The use of

  14. INFLUENCE OF RIVER BED ELEVATION SURVEY CONFIGURATIONS AND INTERPOLATION METHODS ON THE ACCURACY OF LIDAR DTM-BASED RIVER FLOW SIMULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Santillan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigated how survey configuration and the type of interpolation method can affect the accuracy of river flow simulations that utilize LIDAR DTM integrated with interpolated river bed as its main source of topographic information. Aside from determining the accuracy of the individually-generated river bed topographies, we also assessed the overall accuracy of the river flow simulations in terms of maximum flood depth and extent. Four survey configurations consisting of river bed elevation data points arranged as cross-section (XS, zig-zag (ZZ, river banks-centerline (RBCL, and river banks-centerline-zig-zag (RBCLZZ, and two interpolation methods (Inverse Distance-Weighted and Ordinary Kriging were considered. Major results show that the choice of survey configuration, rather than the interpolation method, has significant effect on the accuracy of interpolated river bed surfaces, and subsequently on the accuracy of river flow simulations. The RMSEs of the interpolated surfaces and the model results vary from one configuration to another, and depends on how each configuration evenly collects river bed elevation data points. The large RMSEs for the RBCL configuration and the low RMSEs for the XS configuration confirm that as the data points become evenly spaced and cover more portions of the river, the resulting interpolated surface and the river flow simulation where it was used also become more accurate. The XS configuration with Ordinary Kriging (OK as interpolation method provided the best river bed interpolation and river flow simulation results. The RBCL configuration, regardless of the interpolation algorithm used, resulted to least accurate river bed surfaces and simulation results. Based on the accuracy analysis, the use of XS configuration to collect river bed data points and applying the OK method to interpolate the river bed topography are the best methods to use to produce satisfactory river flow simulation outputs

  15. Streamflow simulation methods for ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Loukas, A.; Vasiliades, L.

    2014-07-01

    Rainfall-runoff modelling procedures for ungauged and poorly gauged watersheds are developed in this study. A well-established hydrological model, the University of British Columbia (UBC) watershed model, is selected and applied in five different river basins located in Canada, Cyprus, and Pakistan. Catchments from cold, temperate, continental, and semiarid climate zones are included to demonstrate the procedures developed. Two methodologies for streamflow modelling are proposed and analysed. The first method uses the UBC watershed model with a universal set of parameters for water allocation and flow routing, and precipitation gradients estimated from the available annual precipitation data as well as from regional information on the distribution of orographic precipitation. This method is proposed for watersheds without streamflow gauge data and limited meteorological station data. The second hybrid method proposes the coupling of UBC watershed model with artificial neural networks (ANNs) and is intended for use in poorly gauged watersheds which have limited streamflow measurements. The two proposed methods have been applied to five mountainous watersheds with largely varying climatic, physiographic, and hydrological characteristics. The evaluation of the applied methods is based on the combination of graphical results, statistical evaluation metrics, and normalized goodness-of-fit statistics. The results show that the first method satisfactorily simulates the observed hydrograph assuming that the basins are ungauged. When limited streamflow measurements are available, the coupling of ANNs with the regional, non-calibrated UBC flow model components is considered a successful alternative method to the conventional calibration of a hydrological model based on the evaluation criteria employed for streamflow modelling and flood frequency estimation.

  16. MODFLOW-2000 model used in the simulation of reclaimed-water injection and pumping scenarios and particle-tracking analysis near Mount Pleasant, South Carolina: U.S. Geological Survey data release

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Geological Survey, Department of the Interior — An existing three-dimensional model (MODFLOW-2000) by Petkewich and Campbell (2007) was updated to simulate potential changes in groundwater flow and...

  17. SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff – a Vietnam river basin study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Vu

    2011-12-01

    these datasets. Such a methodology is also useful for planning on Rainfall-runoff and even reservoir/river management both at rural and urban scales.

  18. Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several

  19. Simulation of cylindrical flow to a well using the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Finite-Difference Ground-Water Flow Model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Reilly, Thomas E.; Harbaugh, Arlen W.

    1993-01-01

    Cylindrical (axisymmetric) flow to a well is an important specialized topic of ground-water hydraulics and has been applied by many investigators to determine aquifer properties and determine heads and flows in the vicinity of the well. A recent modification to the U.S. Geological Survey Modular Three-Dimensional Finite-Difference Ground-Water Flow Model provides the opportunity to simulate axisymmetric flow to a well. The theory involves the conceptualization of a system of concentric shells that are capable of reproducing the large variations in gradient in the vicinity of the well by decreasing their area in the direction of the well. The computer program presented serves as a preprocessor to the U.S. Geological Survey model by creating the input data file needed to implement the axisymmetric conceptualization. Data input requirements to this preprocessor are described, and a comparison with a known analytical solution indicates that the model functions appropriately.

  20. Evaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birko, Stanislav; Dove, Edward S.; Özdemir, Vural

    2015-01-01

    The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof) among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel of experts. Surprisingly, there is little guidance on how indices of consensus can be influenced by parameters of the Delphi survey itself. We simulated a classic three-round Delphi survey building on the concept of clustered consensus/dissensus. We evaluated three study characteristics that are pertinent for design of Delphi foresight research: (1) the number of survey questions, (2) the sample size, and (3) the extent to which experts conform to group opinion (the Group Conformity Index) in a Delphi study. Their impacts on the following nine Delphi consensus indices were then examined in 1000 simulations: Clustered Mode, Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Conger’s Kappa, De Moivre index, Extremities Version of the Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Fleiss’ Kappa, Mode, the Interquartile Range and Pairwise Agreement. The dependency of a consensus index on the Delphi survey characteristics was expressed from 0.000 (no dependency) to 1.000 (full dependency). The number of questions (range: 6 to 40) in a survey did not have a notable impact whereby the dependency values remained below 0.030. The variation in sample size (range: 6 to 50) displayed the top three impacts for the Interquartile Range, the Clustered Mode and the Mode (dependency = 0.396, 0.130, 0.116, respectively). The Group Conformity Index, a construct akin to measuring stubbornness/flexibility of experts’ opinions, greatly impacted all nine Delphi consensus indices (dependency = 0.200 to 0.504), except the Extremity CPWA and the Interquartile Range that were impacted only beyond the first decimal point (dependency

  1. Evaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birko, Stanislav; Dove, Edward S; Özdemir, Vural

    2015-01-01

    The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof) among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel of experts. Surprisingly, there is little guidance on how indices of consensus can be influenced by parameters of the Delphi survey itself. We simulated a classic three-round Delphi survey building on the concept of clustered consensus/dissensus. We evaluated three study characteristics that are pertinent for design of Delphi foresight research: (1) the number of survey questions, (2) the sample size, and (3) the extent to which experts conform to group opinion (the Group Conformity Index) in a Delphi study. Their impacts on the following nine Delphi consensus indices were then examined in 1000 simulations: Clustered Mode, Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Conger's Kappa, De Moivre index, Extremities Version of the Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Fleiss' Kappa, Mode, the Interquartile Range and Pairwise Agreement. The dependency of a consensus index on the Delphi survey characteristics was expressed from 0.000 (no dependency) to 1.000 (full dependency). The number of questions (range: 6 to 40) in a survey did not have a notable impact whereby the dependency values remained below 0.030. The variation in sample size (range: 6 to 50) displayed the top three impacts for the Interquartile Range, the Clustered Mode and the Mode (dependency = 0.396, 0.130, 0.116, respectively). The Group Conformity Index, a construct akin to measuring stubbornness/flexibility of experts' opinions, greatly impacted all nine Delphi consensus indices (dependency = 0.200 to 0.504), except the Extremity CPWA and the Interquartile Range that were impacted only beyond the first decimal point (dependency = 0

  2. Evaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Stanislav Birko

    Full Text Available The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel of experts. Surprisingly, there is little guidance on how indices of consensus can be influenced by parameters of the Delphi survey itself. We simulated a classic three-round Delphi survey building on the concept of clustered consensus/dissensus. We evaluated three study characteristics that are pertinent for design of Delphi foresight research: (1 the number of survey questions, (2 the sample size, and (3 the extent to which experts conform to group opinion (the Group Conformity Index in a Delphi study. Their impacts on the following nine Delphi consensus indices were then examined in 1000 simulations: Clustered Mode, Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Conger's Kappa, De Moivre index, Extremities Version of the Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Fleiss' Kappa, Mode, the Interquartile Range and Pairwise Agreement. The dependency of a consensus index on the Delphi survey characteristics was expressed from 0.000 (no dependency to 1.000 (full dependency. The number of questions (range: 6 to 40 in a survey did not have a notable impact whereby the dependency values remained below 0.030. The variation in sample size (range: 6 to 50 displayed the top three impacts for the Interquartile Range, the Clustered Mode and the Mode (dependency = 0.396, 0.130, 0.116, respectively. The Group Conformity Index, a construct akin to measuring stubbornness/flexibility of experts' opinions, greatly impacted all nine Delphi consensus indices (dependency = 0.200 to 0.504, except the Extremity CPWA and the Interquartile Range that were impacted only beyond the first decimal point

  3. Simulation of water-energy fluxes through small-scale reservoir systems under limited data availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papoulakos, Konstantinos; Pollakis, Giorgos; Moustakis, Yiannis; Markopoulos, Apostolis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Small islands are regarded as promising areas for developing hybrid water-energy systems that combine multiple sources of renewable energy with pumped-storage facilities. Essential element of such systems is the water storage component (reservoir), which implements both flow and energy regulations. Apparently, the representation of the overall water-energy management problem requires the simulation of the operation of the reservoir system, which in turn requires a faithful estimation of water inflows and demands of water and energy. Yet, in small-scale reservoir systems, this task in far from straightforward, since both the availability and accuracy of associated information is generally very poor. For, in contrast to large-scale reservoir systems, for which it is quite easy to find systematic and reliable hydrological data, in the case of small systems such data may be minor or even totally missing. The stochastic approach is the unique means to account for input data uncertainties within the combined water-energy management problem. Using as example the Livadi reservoir, which is the pumped storage component of the small Aegean island of Astypalaia, Greece, we provide a simulation framework, comprising: (a) a stochastic model for generating synthetic rainfall and temperature time series; (b) a stochastic rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters cannot be inferred through calibration and, thus, they are represented as correlated random variables; (c) a stochastic model for estimating water supply and irrigation demands, based on simulated temperature and soil moisture, and (d) a daily operation model of the reservoir system, providing stochastic forecasts of water and energy outflows. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students

  4. Bivariate at-site frequency analysis of simulated flood peak-volume data using copulas

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaál, Ladislav; Viglione, Alberto; Szolgay, Ján.; Blöschl, Günter; Bacigál, Tomáå.¡

    2010-05-01

    In frequency analysis of joint hydro-climatological extremes (flood peaks and volumes, low flows and durations, etc.), usually, bivariate distribution functions are fitted to the observed data in order to estimate the probability of their occurrence. Bivariate models, however, have a number of limitations; therefore, in the recent past, dependence models based on copulas have gained increased attention to represent the joint probabilities of hydrological characteristics. Regardless of whether standard or copula based bivariate frequency analysis is carried out, one is generally interested in the extremes corresponding to low probabilities of the fitted joint cumulative distribution functions (CDFs). However, usually there is not enough flood data in the right tail of the empirical CDFs to derive reliable statistical inferences on the behaviour of the extremes. Therefore, different techniques are used to extend the amount of information for the statistical inference, i.e., temporal extension methods that allow for making use of historical data or spatial extension methods such as regional approaches. In this study, a different approach was adopted which uses simulated flood data by rainfall-runoff modelling, to increase the amount of data in the right tail of the CDFs. In order to generate artificial runoff data (i.e. to simulate flood records of lengths of approximately 106 years), a two-step procedure was used. (i) First, the stochastic rainfall generator proposed by Sivapalan et al. (2005) was modified for our purpose. This model is based on the assumption of discrete rainfall events whose arrival times, durations, mean rainfall intensity and the within-storm intensity patterns are all random, and can be described by specified distributions. The mean storm rainfall intensity is disaggregated further to hourly intensity patterns. (ii) Secondly, the simulated rainfall data entered a semi-distributed conceptual rainfall-runoff model that consisted of a snow routine

  5. Survey of ion-acoustic-instability particle simulations and relevance to laser-fusion thermal-transport inhibition

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Mead, W.C.

    1980-09-11

    Ion acoustic turbulence is examined as one mechanism which could contribute to the inhibition of electron thermal transport which has been inferred from many laser-plasma experiments. The behavior of the ion acoustic instability is discussed from the viewpoint of the literature of 2-dimensional particle-in-cell simulations. Simulation techniques, limitations, and reported saturation mechanisms and levels are discussed. A scaling law for the effective collision frequency ..nu..* can be fit to several workers' results to within an order-of-magnitude. The inferred ..nu..* is shown to be 1-2 orders-of-magnitude too small to account for the transport inhibition seen in Nd-laser-produced plasmas. Several differences between the simulation conditions and laser-produced plasma conditions are noted.

  6. Computational Analysis and Simulation of Empathic Behaviors: a Survey of Empathy Modeling with Behavioral Signal Processing Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Bo; Imel, Zac E; Georgiou, Panayiotis; Atkins, David C; Narayanan, Shrikanth S

    2016-05-01

    Empathy is an important psychological process that facilitates human communication and interaction. Enhancement of empathy has profound significance in a range of applications. In this paper, we review emerging directions of research on computational analysis of empathy expression and perception as well as empathic interactions, including their simulation. We summarize the work on empathic expression analysis by the targeted signal modalities (e.g., text, audio, and facial expressions). We categorize empathy simulation studies into theory-based emotion space modeling or application-driven user and context modeling. We summarize challenges in computational study of empathy including conceptual framing and understanding of empathy, data availability, appropriate use and validation of machine learning techniques, and behavior signal processing. Finally, we propose a unified view of empathy computation and offer a series of open problems for future research.

  7. Galaxies in the Illustris simulation as seen by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey - I: Bulge+disc decompositions, methods, and biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottrell, Connor; Torrey, Paul; Simard, Luc; Ellison, Sara L.

    2017-05-01

    We present an image-based method for comparing the structural properties of galaxies produced in hydrodynamical simulations to real galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The key feature of our work is the introduction of extensive observational realism, such as object crowding, noise and viewing angle, to the synthetic images of simulated galaxies, so that they can be fairly compared to real galaxy catalogues. We apply our methodology to the dust-free synthetic image catalogue of galaxies from the Illustris simulation at z = 0, which are then fit with bulge+disc models to obtain morphological parameters. In this first paper in a series, we detail our methods, quantify observational biases and present publicly available bulge+disc decomposition catalogues. We find that our bulge+disc decompositions are largely robust to the observational biases that affect decompositions of real galaxies. However, we identify a significant population of galaxies (roughly 30 per cent of the full sample) in Illustris that are prone to internal segmentation, leading to systematically reduced flux estimates by up to a factor of 6, smaller half-light radii by up to a factor of ˜2 and generally erroneous bulge-to-total fractions of (B/T) = 0.

  8. Galaxies in the Illustris simulation as seen by the Sloan Digital Sky Survey - I: Bulge+disc decompositions, methods, and biases.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bottrell, Connor; Torrey, Paul; Simard, Luc; Ellison, Sara L.

    2017-01-01

    We present an image-based method for comparing the structural properties of galaxies produced in hydrodynamical simulations to real galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey. The key feature of our work is the introduction of extensive observational realism, such as object crowding, noise and viewing angle, to the synthetic images of simulated galaxies, so that they can be fairly compared to real galaxy catalogs. We apply our methodology to the dust-free synthetic image catalog of galaxies from the Illustris simulation at z = 0, which are then fit with bulge+disc models to obtain morphological parameters. In this first paper in a series, we detail our methods, quantify observational biases, and present publicly available bulge+disc decomposition catalogs. We find that our bulge+disc decompositions are largely robust to the observational biases that affect decompositions of real galaxies. However, we identify a significant population of galaxies (roughly 30% of the full sample) in Illustris that are prone to internal segmentation, leading to systematically reduced flux estimates by up to a factor of 6, smaller half-light radii by up to a factor of ˜ 2, and generally erroneous bulge-to-total fractions of (B/T)=0.

  9. Fate of endogenous steroid hormones in steer feedlots under simulated rainfall-induced runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mansell, D Scott; Bryson, Reid J; Harter, Thomas; Webster, Jackson P; Kolodziej, Edward P; Sedlak, David L

    2011-10-15

    Steroid hormones pose potential risks to fish and other aquatic organisms at extremely low concentrations. To assess the factors affecting the release of endogenous estrogenic and androgenic steroids from feedlots during rainfall, runoff, and soil samples were collected after simulated rainfall on a 14-steer feedlot under different rainfall rates and aging periods and analyzed for six steroid hormones. While only 17α-estradiol, testosterone, and progesterone were detected in fresh manure, 17β-estradiol, estrone, and androstenedione were present in the surficial soil after two weeks. In the feedlot surficial soil, concentrations of 17α-estradiol decreased by approximately 25% accompanied by an equivalent increase in estrone and 17β-estradiol. Aging of the feedlot soils for an additional 7 days had no effect on estrogen and testosterone concentrations, but androstenedione concentrations decreased substantially, and progesterone concentrations increased. Androstenedione and progesterone concentrations in the surficial soil were much higher than could be accounted for by excretion or conversion from testosterone, suggesting that other potential precursors, such as sterols, were converted after excretion. The concentration of androgens and progesterone in the soil were approximately 85% lower after simulated rainfall, but the estrogen concentrations remained approximately constant. The decreased masses could not be accounted for by runoff, suggesting the possibility of rapid microbial transformation upon wetting. All six steroids in the runoff, with the exception of 17β-estradiol, were detected in both the filtered and particle-associated phases at concentrations well above thresholds for biological responses. Runoff from the aged plots contained less 17α-estradiol and testosterone, but more estrone, androstenedione, and progesterone relative to the runoff from the unaged plots, and most of the steroids had a lower particle-associated fraction.

  10. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS: application to the Hupsel Brook catchment and Cabauw polder

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    C. C. Brauer

    2014-02-01

    Full Text Available The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS is a new parametric (conceptual rainfall-runoff model which accounts explicitly for processes that are important in lowland areas, such as groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, wetness-dependent flowroutes, groundwater–surface water feedbacks, and seepage and surface water supply (see companion paper by Brauer et al., 2014. Lowland catchments can be divided into slightly sloping, freely draining catchments and flat polders with controlled water levels. Here, we apply WALRUS to two contrasting Dutch catchments: the Hupsel Brook catchment and Cabauw polder. In both catchments, WALRUS performs well: Nash–Sutcliffe efficiencies obtained after calibration on one year of discharge observations are 0.87 for the Hupsel Brook catchment and 0.83 for the Cabauw polder, with values of 0.74 and 0.76 for validation. The model also performs well during floods and droughts and can forecast the effect of control operations. Through the dynamic division between quick and slow flowroutes controlled by a wetness index, temporal and spatial variability in groundwater depths can be accounted for, which results in adequate simulation of discharge peaks as well as low flows. The performance of WALRUS is most sensitive to the parameter controlling the wetness index and the groundwater reservoir constant, and to a lesser extent to the quickflow reservoir constant. The effects of these three parameters can be identified in the discharge time series, which indicates that the model is not overparameterised (parsimonious. Forcing uncertainty was found to have a larger effect on modelled discharge than parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in initial conditions.

  11. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): application to the Hupsel Brook catchment and the Cabauw polder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, C. C.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-10-01

    The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) is a new parametric (conceptual) rainfall-runoff model which accounts explicitly for processes that are important in lowland areas, such as groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, wetness-dependent flowroutes, groundwater-surface water feedbacks, and seepage and surface water supply (see companion paper by Brauer et al., 2014). Lowland catchments can be divided into slightly sloping, freely draining catchments and flat polders with controlled water levels. Here, we apply WALRUS to two contrasting Dutch catchments: the Hupsel Brook catchment and the Cabauw polder. In both catchments, WALRUS performs well: Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies obtained after calibration on 1 year of discharge observations are 0.87 for the Hupsel Brook catchment and 0.83 for the Cabauw polder, with values of 0.74 and 0.76 for validation. The model also performs well during floods and droughts and can forecast the effect of control operations. Through the dynamic division between quick and slow flowroutes controlled by a wetness index, temporal and spatial variability in groundwater depths can be accounted for, which results in adequate simulation of discharge peaks as well as low flows. The performance of WALRUS is most sensitive to the parameter controlling the wetness index and the groundwater reservoir constant, and to a lesser extent to the quickflow reservoir constant. The effects of these three parameters can be identified in the discharge time series, which indicates that the model is not overparameterised (parsimonious). Forcing uncertainty was found to have a larger effect on modelled discharge than parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in initial conditions.

  12. The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS): application to the Hupsel Brook catchment and Cabauw polder

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brauer, C. C.; Torfs, P. J. J. F.; Teuling, A. J.; Uijlenhoet, R.

    2014-02-01

    The Wageningen Lowland Runoff Simulator (WALRUS) is a new parametric (conceptual) rainfall-runoff model which accounts explicitly for processes that are important in lowland areas, such as groundwater-unsaturated zone coupling, wetness-dependent flowroutes, groundwater-surface water feedbacks, and seepage and surface water supply (see companion paper by Brauer et al., 2014). Lowland catchments can be divided into slightly sloping, freely draining catchments and flat polders with controlled water levels. Here, we apply WALRUS to two contrasting Dutch catchments: the Hupsel Brook catchment and Cabauw polder. In both catchments, WALRUS performs well: Nash-Sutcliffe efficiencies obtained after calibration on one year of discharge observations are 0.87 for the Hupsel Brook catchment and 0.83 for the Cabauw polder, with values of 0.74 and 0.76 for validation. The model also performs well during floods and droughts and can forecast the effect of control operations. Through the dynamic division between quick and slow flowroutes controlled by a wetness index, temporal and spatial variability in groundwater depths can be accounted for, which results in adequate simulation of discharge peaks as well as low flows. The performance of WALRUS is most sensitive to the parameter controlling the wetness index and the groundwater reservoir constant, and to a lesser extent to the quickflow reservoir constant. The effects of these three parameters can be identified in the discharge time series, which indicates that the model is not overparameterised (parsimonious). Forcing uncertainty was found to have a larger effect on modelled discharge than parameter uncertainty and uncertainty in initial conditions.

  13. Model simulations of flood and debris flow timing in steep catchments after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rengers, Francis; Mcguire, Luke; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.; Hobley, D.E.J

    2016-01-01

    Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most post-wildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris-flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's $n$) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.

  14. Exhaust emissions survey of a turbofan engine for flame holder swirl type augmentors at simulated altitude flight conditions

    Science.gov (United States)

    Moss, J. E., Jr.

    1981-01-01

    Emissions of carbon dioxide, total oxides of nitrogen, unburned hydrocarbons, and carbon monoxide from an F100 afterburning two spool turbofan engine at simulated flight conditions are reported. Tests were run at Mach 0.8 at altitudes of 10.97 and 13.71 km (36,000 and 45,000 ft), and at Mach 1.2 at 13.71 km (45,000 ft). Emission measurements were made from intermediate power (nonafterburning) through maximum afterburning, using a single point gas sample probe traversed across the horizontal diameter of the exhaust nozzle. The data show that emissions vary with flight speed, altitude, power level, and radial position across the nozzle. Carbon monoxide emissions were low for intermediate and partial afterburning power. Unburned hydrocarbons were near zero for most of the simulated flight conditions. At maximum afterburning, there were regions of NOx deficiency in regions of high CO. The results suggest that the low NOx levels observed in the tests are a result of interaction with high CO in the thermal converter. CO2 emissions were proportional to local fuel air ratio for all test conditions.

  15. Simulations of the cosmic infrared and submillimeter background for future large surveys: II. Removing the low-redshift contribution to the anisotropies using stacking

    CERN Document Server

    Fernandez-Conde, N; Puget, J-L; Dole, H; 10.1051/0004-6361/200912924

    2010-01-01

    Herschel and Planck are surveying the sky at unprecedented angular scales and sensitivities over large areas. But both experiments are limited by source confusion in the submillimeter. The high confusion noise in particular restricts the study of the clustering properties of the sources that dominate the cosmic infrared background. At these wavelengths, it is more appropriate to consider the statistics of the unresolved component. In particular, high clustering will contribute in excess of Poisson noise in the power spectra of CIB anisotropies. These power spectra contain contributions from sources at all redshift. We show how the stacking technique can be used to separate the different redshift contributions to the power spectra. We use simulations of CIB representative of realistic Spitzer, Herschel, Planck, and SCUBA-2 observations. We stack the 24um sources in longer wavelengths maps to measure mean colors per redshift and flux bins. The information retrieved on the mean spectral energy distribution obtai...

  16. Runoff Simulation Using Radar and Rain Gauge Data%雷达雨量计资料用于径流模拟

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    刘晓阳; 毛节泰; 朱元竞; 李纪人

    2003-01-01

    The conceptual rainfall-runoff model TOPMODEL is used to simulate runoffs of the Meishan and Nianyushan catchments during the summers of 1998 and 1999 in the GAME/HUBEX (GEWEX Asia Monsoon Experiment/HUAIHE River Basin Experiment) project. The rainfall distributions are estimated by weather radar and rain gauge networks according to different methods. Observed and simulated runoffs are compared and analyzed for both catchments. Results show that(1) the runoff of the catchment is best simulated by radar data combined with rain gauge network data from inside the catchment, and (2) the rainfall estimated by radar adjusted by a few rain gauges outside the catchment can be used to simulate runoff equally as well as using the dense rain gauge network alone.%利用测雨雷达结合稠密和稀疏雨量站网估计流域降水分布,将不同方法获得的降水分布输入降水径流模型TOPMODEL,模拟1998,1999夏季GAME/HUBEX试验区梅山和鲇鱼山集水区的径流,并与实测径流进行比较和分析,结果表明:1)雷达结合集水区内雨量计网模拟径流的精度优于传统的用稠密雨量计网模拟径流的精度;2)利用雷达结合集水区外相对稀疏的雨量计网模拟径流的精度和用集水区内稠密雨量计网模拟径流的精度相当,显示了测雨雷达在径流模拟和洪水预报中极大的应用潜力.

  17. Near Surface Gas Simulator (NSGS): A Visual Basic program to improve the design of near-surface gas geochemistry surveys above CO2 geological storage sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Beaubien, S. E.; Annunziatellis, A.; Ciotoli, G.; Lombardi, S.

    2009-04-01

    If CO2 were to leak from a geological storage site and be released to the atmosphere, where would it occur and how large would the leak be in terms of dimension and flow rate? There are many options available to monitor storage sites, including deep and shallow geophysical or geochemical methods, biological markers, or remote sensing techniques, each with its advantages and disadvantages. However only the direct measurement of CO2 at the earth's surface, that is soil gas or gas flux analyses, can give a definitive answer to these questions. Considering that these methods involve point measurements, the question has be raised regarding the sampling density that would be needed to locate a leak above a storage site, or, conversely, to ensure that a leak does not exist. To address this issue we have written a program in Visual Basic which uses highly-detailed, gridded synthetic data (with user-defined gas leakage areas) to study the link between sampling density and anomaly size and to find a sampling strategy which minimises the number of samples collected while maximizing the probability that an anomaly (i.e. a leak) will be found. At the beginning of a run the user is asked to define the location, size, and intensity of leakage areas; these areas are then superimposed on a grid (1 x 1 m step size) of normally-distributed background CO2 flux values. Then the user is asked to provide a series of sampling densities (for example, x = 10, 50, 100, 500, and 1000 samples km-2) and the number of simulations that must be conducted for each sampling density (e.g. y = 100). The program then uses a nested loop structure whereby the synthetic dataset is randomly subsampled at the sampling density "x" for a total of "y" times - each of these smaller datasets is then analysed statistically and spatially using subroutines from the programs Statistica and Surfer, and the resultant data from each simulation for that "x" sampling density is combined to define its statistical

  18. Efficiency of household reactive case detection for malaria in rural Southern Zambia: simulations based on cross-sectional surveys from two epidemiological settings.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Kelly M Searle

    Full Text Available BACKGROUND: Case detection and treatment are critical to malaria control and elimination as infected individuals who do not seek medical care can serve as persistent reservoirs for transmission. METHODS: Household malaria surveys were conducted in two study areas within Southern Province, Zambia in 2007 and 2008. Cross-sectional surveys were conducted approximately five times throughout the year in each of the two study areas. During study visits, adults and caretakers of children were administered a questionnaire and a blood sample was obtained for a rapid diagnostic test (RDT for malaria. These data were used to estimate the proportions of individuals with malaria potentially identified through passive case detection at health care facilities and those potentially identified through reactive case finding. Simulations were performed to extrapolate data from sampled to non-sampled households. Radii of increasing size surrounding households with an index case were examined to determine the proportion of households with an infected individual that would be identified through reactive case detection. RESULTS: In the 2007 high transmission setting, with a parasite prevalence of 23%, screening neighboring households within 500 meters of an index case could have identified 89% of all households with an RDT positive resident and 90% of all RDT positive individuals. In the 2008 low transmission setting, with a parasite prevalence of 8%, screening neighboring households within 500 meters of a household with an index case could have identified 77% of all households with an RDT positive resident and 76% of all RDT positive individuals. CONCLUSIONS: Testing and treating individuals residing within a defined radius from an index case has the potential to be an effective strategy to identify and treat a large proportion of infected individuals who do not seek medical care, although the efficiency of this strategy is likely to decrease with declining parasite

  19. Water scarcity and economic damage in Europe: regionally relevant simulations from 2000 to 2050

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bernhard, Jeroen; de Roo, Ad; Bisselink, Bernard; Gelati, Emiliano; Karssenberg, Derek; de Jong, Steven

    2017-04-01

    Water availability is unequally distributed across Europe. Where certain regions experience a surplus of water, other areas have limited water availability which causes economic damage to the water using sectors such as households, industries or agriculture. Future changes in climatic and socio-economic conditions are expected to further increase the competition for available water that is already present in Europe. This means there is an increasing need for models that are able to simulate this multi-sectorial system of water availability and demand and incorporate the socio-economic component required for robust decisions and policy support. We present our modelling study which is focused at providing regionally relevant pan-European water scarcity and economic damage simulations. First we developed regionally relevant pan-European water demand simulations for the household and industry sector from 2000 up to 2050. For the household sector we developed a model to simulate water use based on water price, income and several other relevant variables at NUTS-3 level (over 1200 regions in Europe). Alternatively, we modelled industrial water use based on regionally downscaled water productivity values at the national level for ten sub-sections of the NACE (Nomenclature of Economic Activities) classification for economic activities. Subsequently we used scenario projections of our explanatory variables to make scenario simulations of water demand from 2000 up to 2050 at pan-European scale with unprecedented spatial and sub-sectorial detail. In order to analyze the European water use system we integrated these water demand scenarios into the hydrological rainfall-runoff model called LISFLOOD (Distributed Water Balance and Flood Simulation Model), which incorporates a vegetation module for the simulation of crop yield and irrigation water demand of the agriculture sector. We simulated river discharge and groundwater availability for abstractions of water using sectors

  20. Extreme Rivers for Future Climates - Simulation Using Spatial Weather Generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchar, Leszek; Kosierb, Ryszard; Iwański, Sławomir; Jelonek, Leszek

    2014-05-01

    In this paper an application of spatial weather generator for estimation of probability distributions changes of river flows for selected climate change scenarios and different time horizons are presented. The main studies for the Kaczawa river basin located in Southwest region of Poland are carried out. For the estimation of probability distribution river flow, daily data of SR solar radiation, maximum and minimum air temperature, and total precipitation were obtained for sixteen stations of hydrological network from Institute of Meteorology and Water Management. In addition, daily data of flows from 6 closing water-gauges (partial catchments) were collected. Idea of flow simulation in the Kaczawa river catchment for future climate conditions given by different scenario shall be presented in the paper. First, on the basis of 25-years data series (1981-2005) for 16 stations of meteorological network within or around the Kaczawa river catchment basic climatology characteristics required by weather generator are computed. Then, spatial correlations between variables and stations are added to the characteristics. Next, on the basis of information coming from three climate change scenarios (GISS, GFDL and CCCM) for years 2040, 2060 and 2080 basic climatology characteristics are modified. Then, spatial weather generator SWGEN is used to produce 500 years of synthetic data for 16 stations, given time horizon and scenario. The year 2000 as the background of potential changes in river flow is used together with 500 years of synthetic data. Next, generated data are applied to hydrological model Mike SHE to simulate daily flows for closing water-gauges. The flow are evaluated with different temporal step and characterized by pdf functions. The application of spatial weather generator SWGEN combined with hydrological rainfall-runoff model (Mike SHE Ed. 2008) and climate change scenario, gives various possibilities to study changes in the river catchment coming up to 60

  1. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  2. 竞选优化算法实现及其仿真研究%Realization and Simulation of Election-Survey Optimization Algorithm

    Institute of Scientific and Technical Information of China (English)

    贺春华; 张湘伟; 吕文阁; 谢庆华

    2011-01-01

    In solving complicated optimization problems, the key is to find a suitable optimal algorithm. Traditional numerical methods are sensitive to the initial parameter and need differential coefficient of functions. Many modern optimization algorithms often converge at local optimal value and have deficiencies in convergence speed and calculation efficiency. Election-Survey Algorithm(ESA), a new intelligent optimization algorithm by simulating the motivation of election candidates to obtain the higher support ratio in campaign, is introduced, and the principle and step of the ESA are given in the paper. In order to demonstrate the practicality andeffectiveness of the algorithm, the test functions are simulated and analyzed with the ESA. The Simulation results of one and multi-dimensional typical function optimization problems show that the ESA can converge to global optimal solution rapidly and is of better stability.%研究寻找一种合适的优化算法是求解复杂优化问题成功的关键.传统数值方法对初始值的选择很敏感并需要对函数求导,许多现有的现代优化算法则存在容易陷人局部最优解或收敛速度较慢、计算效率较低的问题.一种新的智能优化竞选算法是模拟人类竟选活动中追求更高支持率所蕴涵的优化思想而建立的一种新的启发式优化算法.首先提出了算法的原理和实现步骤.然后为了验证算法的可行性和有效性,运用典型的测试函数进行仿真研究.一维和多维典型函数优化问题的仿真测试结果表明,竞选算法能够快速收敛于全局最优解,并具有较好的稳定性.

  3. Observations and model simulations of snow albedo reduction in seasonal snow due to insoluble light-absorbing particles during 2014 Chinese survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xin; Pu, Wei; Ren, Yong; Zhang, Xuelei; Zhang, Xueying; Shi, Jinsen; Jin, Hongchun; Dai, Mingkai; Chen, Quanliang

    2017-02-01

    A snow survey was carried out to collect 13 surface snow samples (10 for fresh snow, and 3 for aged snow) and 79 subsurface snow samples in seasonal snow at 13 sites across northeastern China in January 2014. A spectrophotometer combined with chemical analysis was used to quantify snow particulate absorption by in