WorldWideScience

Sample records for survey rainfall-runoff simulation

  1. Simulation of rainfall-runoff for major flash flood events in Karachi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zafar, Sumaira

    2016-07-01

    Metropolitan city Karachi has strategic importance for Pakistan. With the each passing decade the city is facing urban sprawl and rapid population growth. These rapid changes directly affecting the natural resources of city including its drainage pattern. Karachi has three major cities Malir River with the catchment area of 2252 sqkm and Lyari River has catchment area about 470.4 sqkm. These are non-perennial rivers and active only during storms. Change of natural surfaces into hard pavement causing an increase in rainfall-runoff response. Curve Number is increased which is now causing flash floods in the urban locality of Karachi. There is only one gauge installed on the upstream of the river but there no record for the discharge. Only one gauge located at the upstream is not sufficient for discharge measurements. To simulate the maximum discharge of Malir River rainfall (1985 to 2014) data were collected from Pakistan meteorological department. Major rainfall events use to simulate the rainfall runoff. Maximum rainfall-runoff response was recorded in during 1994, 2007 and 2013. This runoff causes damages and inundation in floodplain areas of Karachi. These flash flooding events not only damage the property but also cause losses of lives

  2. Multi-catchment rainfall-runoff simulation for extreme flood estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paquet, Emmanuel

    2017-04-01

    The SCHADEX method (Paquet et al., 2013) is a reference method in France for the estimation of extreme flood for dam design. The method is based on a semi-continuous rainfall-runoff simulation process: hundreds of different rainy events, randomly drawn up to extreme values, are simulated independently in the hydrological conditions of each day when a rainy event has been actually observed. This allows generating an exhaustive set of crossings between precipitation and soil saturation hazards, and to build a complete distribution of flood discharges up to extreme quantiles. The hydrological model used within SCHADEX, the MORDOR model (Garçon, 1996), is a lumped model, which implies that hydrological processes, e.g. rainfall and soil saturation, are supposed to be homogeneous throughout the catchment. Snow processes are nevertheless represented in relation with altitude. This hypothesis of homogeneity is questionable especially as the size of the catchment increases, or in areas of highly contrasted climatology (like mountainous areas). Conversely, modeling the catchment with a fully distributed approach would cause different problems, in particular distributing the rainfall-runoff model parameters trough space, and within the SCHADEX stochastic framework, generating extreme rain fields with credible spatio-temporal features. An intermediate solution is presented here. It provides a better representation of the hydro-climatic diversity of the studied catchment (especially regarding flood processes) while keeping the SCHADEX simulation framework. It consists in dividing the catchment in several, more homogeneous sub-catchments. Rainfall-runoff models are parameterized individually for each of them, using local discharge data if available. A first SCHADEX simulation is done at the global scale, which allows assigning a probability to each simulated event, mainly based on the global areal rainfall drawn for the event (see Paquet el al., 2013 for details). Then the

  3. Simulation of Urban Rainfall-Runoff in Piedmont Cities: A Case Study in Jinan City, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chang, X.; Xu, Z.; Zhao, G.; Li, H.

    2017-12-01

    During the past decades, frequent flooding disasters in urban areas resulted in catastrophic impacts such as human life casualties and property damages especially in piedmont cities due to its specific topography. In this study, a piedmont urban flooding model was developed in the Huangtaiqiao catchment based on SWMM. The sub-catchments in this piedmont area were divided into mountainous area, plain area and main urban area according to the variations of underlying surface topography. The impact of different routing mode and channel roughness on simulation results was quantitatively analyzed under different types of scenarios, and genetic algorithm was used to optimize model parameters. Results show that the simulation is poor (with a mean Nash coefficient of 0.61) when using the traditional routing mode in SWMM model, which usually ignores terrain variance in piedmont area. However, when the difference of routing mode, percent routed and channel roughness are considered, the prediction precision of model were significantly increased (with a mean Nash coefficient of 0.86), indicating that the difference of surface topography significantly affects the simulation results in piedmont cities. The relevant results would provide the scientific basis and technical support for rainfall-runoff simulation, flood control and disaster alleviation in piedmont cities.

  4. Calibration of a rainfall-runoff hydrological model and flood simulation using data assimilation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piacentini, A.; Ricci, S. M.; Thual, O.; Coustau, M.; Marchandise, A.

    2010-12-01

    Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for long-term assessment of flash floods or real-time forecasting. This work focuses on the calibration of a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model using data assimilation. The model combines a SCS-derived runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The SCS-derived runoff model is parametrized by the initial water deficit, the discharge coefficient for the soil reservoir and a lagged discharge coefficient. The Lag and Route routing model is parametrized by the velocity of travel and the lag parameter. These parameters are assumed to be constant for a given catchment except for the initial water deficit and the velocity travel that are event-dependent (landuse, soil type and moisture initial conditions). In the present work, a BLUE filtering technique was used to calibrate the initial water deficit and the velocity travel for each flood event assimilating the first available discharge measurements at the catchment outlet. The advantages of the BLUE algorithm are its low computational cost and its convenient implementation, especially in the context of the calibration of a reduced number of parameters. The assimilation algorithm was applied on two Mediterranean catchment areas of different size and dynamics: Gardon d'Anduze and Lez. The Lez catchment, of 114 km2 drainage area, is located upstream Montpellier. It is a karstic catchment mainly affected by floods in autumn during intense rainstorms with short Lag-times and high discharge peaks (up to 480 m3.s-1 in September 2005). The Gardon d'Anduze catchment, mostly granite and schistose, of 545 km2 drainage area, lies over the departements of Lozère and Gard. It is often affected by flash and devasting floods (up to 3000 m3.s-1 in September 2002). The discharge observations at the beginning of the flood event are assimilated so that the BLUE algorithm provides optimal values for the initial water deficit and the

  5. Transport of three veterinary antimicrobials from feedlot pens via simulated rainfall runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sura, Srinivas; Degenhardt, Dani; Cessna, Allan J; Larney, Francis J; Olson, Andrew F; McAllister, Tim A

    2015-07-15

    Veterinary antimicrobials are introduced to wider environments by manure application to agricultural fields or through leaching or runoff from manure storage areas (feedlots, stockpiles, windrows, lagoons). Detected in manure, manure-treated soils, and surface and ground water near intensive cattle feeding operations, there is a concern that environmental contamination by these chemicals may promote the development of antimicrobial resistance in bacteria. Surface runoff and leaching appear to be major transport pathways by which veterinary antimicrobials eventually contaminate surface and ground water, respectively. A study was conducted to investigate the transport of three veterinary antimicrobials (chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, tylosin), commonly used in beef cattle production, in simulated rainfall runoff from feedlot pens. Mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 3.5 times higher in surface material from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Runoff rates and volumetric runoff coefficients were similar across all treatments but both were significantly higher from non-bedding (0.53Lmin(-1); 0.27) than bedding areas (0.40Lmin(-1); 0.19). In keeping with concentrations in pen surface material, mean concentrations of veterinary antimicrobials were 1.4 to 2.5 times higher in runoff generated from bedding vs. non-bedding pen areas. Water solubility and sorption coefficient of antimicrobials played a role in their transport in runoff. Estimated amounts of chlortetracycline, sulfamethazine, and tylosin that could potentially be transported to the feedlot catch basin during a one in 100-year precipitation event were 1.3 to 3.6ghead(-1), 1.9ghead(-1), and 0.2ghead(-1), respectively. This study demonstrates the magnitude of veterinary antimicrobial transport in feedlot pen runoff and supports the necessity of catch basins for runoff containment within feedlots. Crown Copyright © 2015. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  6. Simulating runoff under changing climatic conditions: Revisiting an apparent deficiency of conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fowler, Keirnan J. A.; Peel, Murray C.; Western, Andrew W.; Zhang, Lu; Peterson, Tim J.

    2016-03-01

    Hydrologic models have potential to be useful tools in planning for future climate variability. However, recent literature suggests that the current generation of conceptual rainfall runoff models tend to underestimate the sensitivity of runoff to a given change in rainfall, leading to poor performance when evaluated over multiyear droughts. This research revisited this conclusion, investigating whether the observed poor performance could be due to insufficient model calibration and evaluation techniques. We applied an approach based on Pareto optimality to explore trade-offs between model performance in different climatic conditions. Five conceptual rainfall runoff model structures were tested in 86 catchments in Australia, for a total of 430 Pareto analyses. The Pareto results were then compared with results from a commonly used model calibration and evaluation method, the Differential Split Sample Test. We found that the latter often missed potentially promising parameter sets within a given model structure, giving a false negative impression of the capabilities of the model. This suggests that models may be more capable under changing climatic conditions than previously thought. Of the 282[347] cases of apparent model failure under the split sample test using the lower [higher] of two model performance criteria trialed, 155[120] were false negatives. We discuss potential causes of remaining model failures, including the role of data errors. Although the Pareto approach proved useful, our aim was not to suggest an alternative calibration strategy, but to critically assess existing methods of model calibration and evaluation. We recommend caution when interpreting split sample results.

  7. Investigation of Rainfall-Runoff Processes and Soil Moisture Dynamics in Grassland Plots under Simulated Rainfall Conditions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nana Zhao

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available The characteristics of rainfall-runoff are important aspects of hydrological processes. In this study, rainfall-runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics at different soil depths and slope positions of grassland with two different row spacings (5 cm and 10 cm, respectively, referred to as R5 and R10 were analyzed, by means of a solution of rainfall simulation experiments. Bare land was also considered as a comparison. The results showed that the mechanism of runoff generation was mainly excess infiltration overland flow. The surface runoff amount of R5 plot was greater than that of R10, while the interflow amount of R10 was larger than that of R5 plot, although the differences of the subsurface runoff processes between plots R5 and R10 were little. The effects of rainfall intensity on the surface runoff were significant, but not obvious on the interflow and recession curve, which can be described as a simple exponential equation, with a fitting degree of up to 0.854–0.996. The response of soil moisture to rainfall and evapotranspiration was mainly in the 0–20 cm layer, and the response at the 40 cm layer to rainfall was slower and generally occurred after the rainfall stopped. The upper slope generally responded fastest to rainfall, and the foot of the slope was the slowest. The results presented here could provide insights into understanding the surface and subsurface runoff processes and soil moisture dynamics for grasslands in semi-arid regions.

  8. Simulation of a rainfall - runoff process for the evaluation of variability in the river flow regime in small basins with vegetation changes

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Buchtele, Josef; Tesař, Miroslav

    2010-01-01

    Roč. 41, - (2010), s. 103-110 ISSN 0071-6715 R&D Projects: GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 EU Projects: European Commission(XE) 511179 - NEWATER Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : vegetation change * land use * rainfall - runoff simulation * evapotranspiration demand Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  9. Application of a modified conceptual rainfall-runoff model to simulation of groundwater level in an undefined watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hong, Nian; Hama, Takehide; Suenaga, Yuichi; Aqili, Sayed Waliullah; Huang, Xiaowu; Wei, Qiaoyan; Kawagoshi, Yasunori

    2016-01-15

    Groundwater level simulation models can help ensure the proper management and use of urban and rural water supply. In this paper, we propose a groundwater level tank model (GLTM) based on a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (tank model) to simulate fluctuations in groundwater level. The variables used in the simulations consist of daily rainfall and daily groundwater level, which were recorded between April 2011 and March 2015 at two representative observation wells in Kumamoto City, Japan. We determined the best-fit model parameters by root-mean-square error through use of the Shuffled Complex Evolution-University of Arizona algorithm on a simulated data set. Calibration and validation results were evaluated by their coefficients of determination, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficients, and root-mean-square error values. The GLTM provided accurate results in both the calibration and validation of fluctuations in groundwater level. The split sample test results indicate a good reliability. These results indicate that this model can provide a simple approach to the accurate simulation of groundwater levels. Copyright © 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  10. Development of rainfall-runoff forecast model | Oyebode | Journal of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    ... and meterological variables involved in rainfall-runoff process to improve forecast accuracy of rainfallrunoff. ... The simulation was done using MATLAB® 7.0. The simulation results showed that neurofuzzy-based model has higher coefficient ...

  11. Toward an operational tool to simulate green roof hydrological impact at the basin scale: a new version of the distributed rainfall-runoff model Multi-Hydro.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Gires, Auguste; Tchinguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2016-10-01

    Currently widespread in new urban projects, green roofs have shown a positive impact on urban runoff at the building scale: decrease and slow-down of the peak discharge, and decrease of runoff volume. The present work aims to study their possible impact at the catchment scale, more compatible with stormwater management issues. For this purpose, a specific module dedicated to simulating the hydrological behaviour of a green roof has been developed in the distributed rainfall-runoff model (Multi-Hydro). It has been applied on a French urban catchment where most of the building roofs are flat and assumed to accept the implementation of a green roof. Catchment responses to several rainfall events covering a wide range of meteorological situations have been simulated. The simulation results show green roofs can significantly reduce runoff volume and the magnitude of peak discharge (up to 80%) depending on the rainfall event and initial saturation of the substrate. Additional tests have been made to assess the susceptibility of this response regarding both spatial distributions of green roofs and precipitation. It appears that the total area of greened roofs is more important than their locations. On the other hand, peak discharge reduction seems to be clearly dependent on spatial distribution of precipitation.

  12. Simulation of rainfall-runoff response in mined and unmined watersheds in coal areas of West Virginia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Puente, Celso; Atkins, John T.

    1989-01-01

    Meteorologic and hydrologic data from five small watersheds in the coal areas of West Virginia were used to calibrate and test the U.S. Geological Survey Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System for simulating streamflow under various climatic and land-use conditions. Three of the basins--Horsecamp Run, Gilmer Run, and Collison Creek--are primarily forested and relatively undisturbed. The remaining basins--Drawdy Creek and Brier Creek-are extensively mined, both surface and underground above stream drainage level. Low-flow measurements at numerous synoptic sites in the mined basins indicate that coal mining has substantially altered the hydrologic system of each basin. The effects of mining on streamflow that were identified are (1) reduced base flow in stream segments underlain by underground mines, (2) increased base flow in streams that are downdip and stratigraphically below the elevation of the mined coal beds, and (3) interbasin transfer of ground water through underground mines. These changes probably reflect increased permeability of surface rocks caused by subsidence fractures associated with collapsed underground mines in the basin. Such fractures would increase downward percolation of precipitation, surface and subsurface flow, and ground-water flow to deeper rocks or to underground mine workings. Model simulations of the water budgets for the unmined basins during the 1972-73 water years indicate that total annual runoff averaged 60 percent of average annual precipitation; annual evapotranspiration losses averaged 40 percent of average annual precipitation. Of the total annual runoff, approximately 91 percent was surface and subsurface runoff and 9 percent was groundwater discharge. Changes in storage in the soil zone and in the subsurface and ground-water reservoirs in the basins were negligible. In contrast, water-budget simulations for the mined basins indicate significant differences in annual recharge and in total annual runoff. Model simulations of

  13. Simulation of soil loss processes based on rainfall runoff and the time factor of governance in the Jialing River Watershed, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lei; Long, Tian-Yu; Liu, Xia; Mmereki, Daniel

    2012-06-01

    Jialing River is the largest tributary in the catchment area of Three Gorges Reservoir, and it is also one of the important areas of sediment yield in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. In recent years, significant changes of water and sediment characteristics have taken place. The "Long Control" Project implemented since 1989 had greatly changed the surface appearance of the Jialing River Watershed (JRW), and it had made the environments of the watershed sediment yield and sediment transport change significantly. In this research, the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation was selected and used to predict the annual average amount of soil erosion for the special water and sediment environments in the JRW after the implementation of the "Long Control" Project, and then the rainfall-runoff modulus and the time factor of governance were both considered as dynamic factors, the dynamic sediment transport model was built for soil erosion monitoring and forecasting based on the average sediment yield model. According to the dynamic model, the spatial and temporal distribution of soil erosion amount and sediment transport amount of the JRW from 1990 to 2007 was simulated using geographic information system (GIS) technology and space-grid algorithm. Simulation results showed that the average relative error of sediment transport was less than 10% except for the extreme hydrological year. The relationship between water and sediment from 1990 to 2007 showed that sediment interception effects of the soil and water conservation projects were obvious: the annual average sediment discharge reduced from 145.3 to 35 million tons, the decrement of sediment amount was about 111 million tons, and decreasing amplitude was 76%; the sediment concentration was also decreased from 2.01 to 0.578 kg/m(3). These data are of great significance for the prediction and estimation of the future changing trends of sediment storage in the Three Gorges Reservoir and the particulate non

  14. Performance of bias corrected MPEG rainfall estimate for rainfall-runoff simulation in the upper Blue Nile Basin, Ethiopia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Worqlul, Abeyou W.; Ayana, Essayas K.; Maathuis, Ben H. P.; MacAlister, Charlotte; Philpot, William D.; Osorio Leyton, Javier M.; Steenhuis, Tammo S.

    2018-01-01

    In many developing countries and remote areas of important ecosystems, good quality precipitation data are neither available nor readily accessible. Satellite observations and processing algorithms are being extensively used to produce satellite rainfall products (SREs). Nevertheless, these products are prone to systematic errors and need extensive validation before to be usable for streamflow simulations. In this study, we investigated and corrected the bias of Multi-Sensor Precipitation Estimate-Geostationary (MPEG) data. The corrected MPEG dataset was used as input to a semi-distributed hydrological model Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV) for simulation of discharge of the Gilgel Abay and Gumara watersheds in the Upper Blue Nile basin, Ethiopia. The result indicated that the MPEG satellite rainfall captured 81% and 78% of the gauged rainfall variability with a consistent bias of underestimating the gauged rainfall by 60%. A linear bias correction applied significantly reduced the bias while maintaining the coefficient of correlation. The simulated flow using bias corrected MPEG SRE resulted in a simulated flow comparable to the gauge rainfall for both watersheds. The study indicated the potential of MPEG SRE in water budget studies after applying a linear bias correction.

  15. DAILY RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELLING BY NEURAL NETWORKS ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    K. Benzineb, M. Remaoun

    2016-09-01

    Sep 1, 2016 ... The hydrologic behaviour modelling of w. Journal of ... i Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linea networks ... will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows simulation in semi-arid zone.

  16. Rainfall-runoff and hydraulic modelling integration in the Blatina River

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Timko, J.

    2017-01-01

    This paper investigates the use and integration of rainfall-runoff modelling and hydrologic modelling of Blatina river catchment. Characteristics of physical-geographical sphere and its components were created within the model, enhancing the robustness of input data for the mathematical modelling of landscape runoff. Rainfall-runoff model HEC-HMS utilised in this research allows using a wide range of methodologies to determine the movement of water in the riverbed, water losses in the basin, hydraulic and hydrological methods of transformation and base-flow. Loss and transformation of water in the basin were modeled with curve numbers method SCS-CN. The simulated hydrograph was calibrated using rainfall-runoff event from June 2009. The same event was also modelled after the deforestation of the focus area. Using hydraulic model MIKE 21, a flood of focus rainfall-runoff area was simulated under both current real and changed land cover scenarios. (authors)

  17. Modeling rainfall-runoff relationship using multivariate GARCH model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Modarres, R.; Ouarda, T. B. M. J.

    2013-08-01

    The traditional hydrologic time series approaches are used for modeling, simulating and forecasting conditional mean of hydrologic variables but neglect their time varying variance or the second order moment. This paper introduces the multivariate Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroscedasticity (MGARCH) modeling approach to show how the variance-covariance relationship between hydrologic variables varies in time. These approaches are also useful to estimate the dynamic conditional correlation between hydrologic variables. To illustrate the novelty and usefulness of MGARCH models in hydrology, two major types of MGARCH models, the bivariate diagonal VECH and constant conditional correlation (CCC) models are applied to show the variance-covariance structure and cdynamic correlation in a rainfall-runoff process. The bivariate diagonal VECH-GARCH(1,1) and CCC-GARCH(1,1) models indicated both short-run and long-run persistency in the conditional variance-covariance matrix of the rainfall-runoff process. The conditional variance of rainfall appears to have a stronger persistency, especially long-run persistency, than the conditional variance of streamflow which shows a short-lived drastic increasing pattern and a stronger short-run persistency. The conditional covariance and conditional correlation coefficients have different features for each bivariate rainfall-runoff process with different degrees of stationarity and dynamic nonlinearity. The spatial and temporal pattern of variance-covariance features may reflect the signature of different physical and hydrological variables such as drainage area, topography, soil moisture and ground water fluctuations on the strength, stationarity and nonlinearity of the conditional variance-covariance for a rainfall-runoff process.

  18. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELS FOR MEDITERRANEAN SUBCATCHMENTS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. Cilek

    2016-06-01

    Full Text Available The development and the application of rainfall-runoff models have been a corner-stone of hydrological research for many decades. The amount of rainfall and its intensity and variability control the generation of runoff and the erosional processes operating at different scales. These interactions can be greatly variable in Mediterranean catchments with marked hydrological fluctuations. The aim of the study was to evaluate the performance of rainfall-runoff model, for rainfall-runoff simulation in a Mediterranean subcatchment. The Pan-European Soil Erosion Risk Assessment (PESERA, a simplified hydrological process-based approach, was used in this study to combine hydrological surface runoff factors. In total 128 input layers derived from data set includes; climate, topography, land use, crop type, planting date, and soil characteristics, are required to run the model. Initial ground cover was estimated from the Landsat ETM data provided by ESA. This hydrological model was evaluated in terms of their performance in Goksu River Watershed, Turkey. It is located at the Central Eastern Mediterranean Basin of Turkey. The area is approximately 2000 km2. The landscape is dominated by bare ground, agricultural and forests. The average annual rainfall is 636.4mm. This study has a significant importance to evaluate different model performances in a complex Mediterranean basin. The results provided comprehensive insight including advantages and limitations of modelling approaches in the Mediterranean environment.

  19. Parameter estimation in stochastic rainfall-runoff models

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Jonsdottir, Harpa; Madsen, Henrik; Palsson, Olafur Petur

    2006-01-01

    A parameter estimation method for stochastic rainfall-runoff models is presented. The model considered in the paper is a conceptual stochastic model, formulated in continuous-discrete state space form. The model is small and a fully automatic optimization is, therefore, possible for estimating all...... the parameter values are optimal for simulation or prediction. The data originates from Iceland and the model is designed for Icelandic conditions, including a snow routine for mountainous areas. The model demands only two input data series, precipitation and temperature and one output data series...

  20. Influence of mesh structure on 2D full shallow water equations and SCS Curve Number simulation of rainfall/runoff events

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caviedes-Voullième, Daniel; García-Navarro, Pilar; Murillo, Javier

    2012-07-01

    SummaryHydrological simulation of rain-runoff processes is often performed with lumped models which rely on calibration to generate storm hydrographs and study catchment response to rain. In this paper, a distributed, physically-based numerical model is used for runoff simulation in a mountain catchment. This approach offers two advantages. The first is that by using shallow-water equations for runoff flow, there is less freedom to calibrate routing parameters (as compared to, for example, synthetic hydrograph methods). The second, is that spatial distributions of water depth and velocity can be obtained. Furthermore, interactions among the various hydrological processes can be modeled in a physically-based approach which may depend on transient and spatially distributed factors. On the other hand, the undertaken numerical approach relies on accurate terrain representation and mesh selection, which also affects significantly the computational cost of the simulations. Hence, we investigate the response of a gauged catchment with this distributed approach. The methodology consists of analyzing the effects that the mesh has on the simulations by using a range of meshes. Next, friction is applied to the model and the response to variations and interaction with the mesh is studied. Finally, a first approach with the well-known SCS Curve Number method is studied to evaluate its behavior when coupled with a shallow-water model for runoff flow. The results show that mesh selection is of great importance, since it may affect the results in a magnitude as large as physical factors, such as friction. Furthermore, results proved to be less sensitive to roughness spatial distribution than to mesh properties. Finally, the results indicate that SCS-CN may not be suitable for simulating hydrological processes together with a shallow-water model.

  1. A formal statistical approach to representing uncertainty in rainfall-runoff modelling with focus on residual analysis and probabilistic output evaluation - Distinguishing simulation and prediction

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders; Møller, Jan Kloppenborg; Madsen, Henrik

    2012-01-01

    While there seems to be consensus that hydrological model outputs should be accompanied with an uncertainty estimate the appropriate method for uncertainty estimation is not agreed upon and a debate is ongoing between advocators of formal statistical methods who consider errors as stochastic...... and GLUE advocators who consider errors as epistemic, arguing that the basis of formal statistical approaches that requires the residuals to be stationary and conform to a statistical distribution is unrealistic. In this paper we take a formal frequentist approach to parameter estimation and uncertainty...... necessary but the statistical assumptions were nevertheless not 100% justified. The residual analysis showed that significant autocorrelation was present for all simulation models. We believe users of formal approaches to uncertainty evaluation within hydrology and within environmental modelling in general...

  2. Enrichment behavior and transport mechanism of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zheng Yi; Luo Xiaolin; Zhang Wei; Wu Bin; Han Feng; Lin Zhongrong; Wang Xuejun

    2012-01-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported by surface runoff result in nonpoint source pollution and jeopardize aquatic ecosystems. The transport mechanism of PAHs during rainfall-runoff events has been rarely studied regarding pervious areas. An experimental system was setup to simulate the runoff pollution process on PAHs-contaminated soil. The enrichment behavior of soil-bound PAHs was investigated. The results show that soil organic matters (SOM), rather than clay particles, seem to be the main carrier of PAHs. The enrichment is highly conditioned on runoff and erosion processes, and its magnitude varies among PAH compounds. It is not feasible to build a simple and universal relationship between enrichment ratio and sediment discharge following the traditional enrichment theory. To estimate the flux of PAHs from pervious areas, soil erosion process has to be clearly understood, and both organic carbon content and composition of SOM should be factored into the calculation. - Highlights: ► Significant enrichment of particle-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events. ► Organic matters as the direct carrier of PAHs in runoff from contaminated soil. ► The traditional enrichment theory is not fully valid for PAHs. - The traditional enrichment theory is not fully valid for PAHs, and soil organic matters have a significant impact on the transport of PAHs during rainfall-runoff events.

  3. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The mean annual rainfall at Mieso is 738 mm. The soil is a Hypo Calcic Vertisol with a high clay and silt content and is very susceptible to crusting. To achieve the objective of the study, rainfall-runoff measurements were made during 2003 and 2004 on 2 m x 2 m plots provided with a runoff measuring system, and replicated ...

  4. Regionalising Parameters of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    IHACRES, a lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, was calibrated to six catchments ranging in size from 49km2 to 600 km2 within the upper Tana River basin to obtain a set of model parameters that characterise the hydrological behaviour within the region. Physical catchment attributes indexing topography, soil and ...

  5. An Overview of Rainfall-Runoff Model Types

    Science.gov (United States)

    This report explores rainfall-runoff models, their generation methods, and the categories under which they fall. Runoff plays an important role in the hydrological cycle by returning excess precipitation to the oceans and controlling how much water flows into stream systems. Mode...

  6. Application of a satellite based rainfall - runoff model : a case study of the Trans Boundary Cuvelai Basin in Southern Africa

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Mufeti, P.; Rientjes, T.H.M.; Mabande, P.; Maathuis, B.H.P.

    2013-01-01

    Applications of distributed hydrological models are often constrained by poor data availability. Models rely on distributed inputs for meteorological forcing and land surface parameterization. In this pilot the rainfall runoff model LISFLOOD for large scale streamflow simulation is tested for the

  7. Which resilience of the continental rainfall-runoff chain?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraedrich, Klaus

    2015-04-01

    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain are extremely variable over a wide range of time and space scales. A key societal question is the multiscale resilience of this chain. We argue that the adequate framework to tackle this question can be obtained by combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts: (i) Rainfall exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics) and extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law as simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process representing vertical moisture fluxes. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function (Gumbel) not unlike physical systems at criticality, while short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. (iii) Soil moisture, interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, provides an equation of state to the surface energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's framework for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. (iv) Vegetation-greenness (NDVI), included as an active tracer extends Budyko's eco-hydrologic state space analysis, supplements the common geographical presentations, and it may be linked to a minimalist biodiversity concept. (v) Finally, attributions of change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes are determined by eco-hydrologic state space trajectories using surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation). Risk-estimates (by GCM-emulators) and possible policy advice mechanisms enter the outlook.

  8. Linking landscape structure and rainfall runoff behaviour in a thermodynamic optimality context

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zehe, Erwin; Ehret, Uwe; Blume, Theresa; Kleidon, Axel; Scherer, Ulrike; Westhoff, Martijn

    2015-04-01

    order polynomial of the wetting rate, which depends on macropore density, the slope of the soil water retention curve, topography and depth to groundwater. An uncalibrated long term simulation of the water balance of the 3.5 km² Weiherbach catchment based on the first optimum macroporosity performed almost as well as the best fit when macroporosity was calibrated to match rainfall runoff. In the other regime called potential- or p-regime, free energy dynamics of soil water is dominated by changes in its potential energy, which applies to non-cohesive soils and a pronounced topography. Soil wetting during rainfall in the p-regime implies to push the system away from LTE. This can be compensated by preferential pathways which connect directly to the riparian zone or the groundwater body, because these drainage structures enhance export of potential energy from the critical zone. However, in the p-regime no local optimum exists because potential energy reduction rates scale linearly with the drainage rate (there is at best an optimum at the margin of the parameter space). Nevertheless, in this case one can define a "distinguished" density of vertical and lateral preferential flow paths that assures steady state conditions of the potential energy balance of the soil. This applies when average storage of potential energy is compensated by average potential export . When applying this idea to the Mallalcahuello catchment in Chile model, which is characterized by non-cohesive soils, high annual rainfall and steep terrain, simulations performed close to the value that yielded the best fit of rainfall runoff behaviour obtained during a calibration exercise. Secondly this idea allowed a robust a priory estimate of the annual runoff coefficient in accordance with long term observations.

  9. Incorporation of groundwater losses and well level data in rainfall-runoff models illustrated using the PDM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. J. Moore

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available Intermittent streamflow is a common occurrence in permeable catchments, especially where there are pumped abstractions to water supply. Many rainfall-runoff models are not formulated so as to represent ephemeral streamflow behaviour or to allow for the possibility of negative recharge arising from groundwater pumping. A groundwater model component is formulated here for use in extending existing rainfall-runoff models to accommodate such ephemeral behaviour. Solutions to the Horton-Izzard equation resulting from the conceptual model of groundwater storage are adapted and the form of nonlinear storage extended to accommodate negative inputs, water storage below which outflow ceases, and losses to external springs and underflows below the gauged catchment outlet. The groundwater model component is demonstrated through using it as an extension of the PDM rainfall-runoff model. It is applied to the River Lavant, a catchment in Southern England on the English Chalk, where it successfully simulates the ephemeral streamflow behaviour and flood response together with well level variations. Keywords: groundwater, rainfall-runoff model, ephemeral stream, well level, spring, abstraction

  10. Improved rainfall-runoff approach using lumped and conceptual modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Durán Barroso, Pablo

    2016-01-01

    Rainfall-runoff quantification is one of the most important tasks in both engineering and watershed management as it allows to identify, forecast and explain watershed response. The division of the rainfall depth between infiltration and runoff has a high level of complexity due to the spatial heterogeneity in real catchments and the temporal precipitation variability, which provide scale effects on the overall runoff volumes. The Natural Resources Conservation Service Curve Number (NRCS CN) ...

  11. Rainfall runoff and erosion in Napa Valley vineyards: effects of slope, cover and surface roughness

    Science.gov (United States)

    Battany, M. C.; Grismer, M. E.

    2000-05-01

    The effects of slope, cover and surface roughness on rainfall runoff, infiltration and erosion were determined at two sites on a hillside vineyard in Napa County, California, using a portable rainfall simulator. Rainfall simulation experiments were carried out at two sites, with five replications of three slope treatments (5%, 10% and 15%) in a randomized block design at each site (0%bsol;64 m2 plots). Prior to initiation of the rainfall simulations, detailed assessments, not considered in previous vineyard studies, of soil slope, cover and surface roughness were conducted. Significant correlations (at the 95% confidence level) between the physical characteristics of slope, cover and surface roughness, with total infiltration, runoff, sediment discharge and average sediment concentration were obtained. The extent of soil cracking, a physical characteristic not directly measured, also affected analysis of the rainfall-runoff-erosion process. Average cumulative runoff and cumulative sediment discharge from site A was 87% and 242% greater, respectively, than at site B. This difference was linked to the greater cover, extent of soil cracking and bulk density at site B than at site A. The extent of soil cover was the dominant factor limiting soil loss when soil cracking was not present. Field slopes within the range of 4-16%, although a statistically significant factor affecting soil losses, had only a minor impact on the amount of soil loss. The Horton infiltration equation fit field data better than the modified Philip's equation. Owing to the variability in the treatment parameters affecting the rainfall-runoff-erosion process, use of ANOVA methods were found to be inappropriate; multiple-factor regression analysis was more useful for identifying significant parameters. Overall, we obtained similar values for soil erosion parameters as those obtained from vineyard erosion studies in Europe. In addition, it appears that results from the small plot studies may be

  12. Integrating Artificial Neural Networks into the VIC Model for Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Changqing Meng

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available A hybrid rainfall-runoff model was developed in this study by integrating the variable infiltration capacity (VIC model with artificial neural networks (ANNs. In the proposed model, the prediction interval of the ANN replaces separate, individual simulation (i.e., single simulation. The spatial heterogeneity of horizontal resolution, subgrid-scale features and their influence on the streamflow can be assessed according to the VIC model. In the routing module, instead of a simple linear superposition of the streamflow generated from each subbasin, ANNs facilitate nonlinear mappings of the streamflow produced from each subbasin into the total streamflow at the basin outlet. A total of three subbasins were delineated and calibrated independently via the VIC model; daily runoff errors were simulated for each subbasin, then corrected by an ANN bias-correction model. The initial streamflow and corrected runoff from the simulation for individual subbasins serve as inputs to the ANN routing model. The feasibility of this proposed method was confirmed according to the performance of its application to a case study on rainfall-runoff prediction in the Jinshajiang River Basin, the headwater area of the Yangtze River.

  13. Rainfall, runoff and sediment transport in a Mediterranean mountainous catchment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Tuset, J; Vericat, D; Batalla, R J

    2016-01-01

    The relation between rainfall, runoff, erosion and sediment transport is highly variable in Mediterranean catchments. Their relation can be modified by land use changes and climate oscillations that, ultimately, will control water and sediment yields. This paper analyses rainfall, runoff and sediment transport relations in a meso-scale Mediterranean mountain catchment, the Ribera Salada (NE Iberian Peninsula). A total of 73 floods recorded between November 2005 and November 2008 at the Inglabaga Sediment Transport Station (114.5 km(2)) have been analysed. Suspended sediment transport and flow discharge were measured continuously. Rainfall data was obtained by means of direct rain gauges and daily rainfall reconstructions from radar information. Results indicate that the annual sediment yield (2.3 t km(-1) y(-1) on average) and the flood-based runoff coefficients (4.1% on average) are low. The Ribera Salada presents a low geomorphological and hydrological activity compared with other Mediterranean mountain catchments. Pearson correlations between rainfall, runoff and sediment transport variables were obtained. The hydrological response of the catchment is controlled by the base flows. The magnitude of suspended sediment concentrations is largely correlated with flood magnitude, while sediment load is correlated with the amount of direct runoff. Multivariate analysis shows that total suspended load can be predicted by integrating rainfall and runoff variables. The total direct runoff is the variable with more weight in the equation. Finally, three main hydro-sedimentary phases within the hydrological year are defined in this catchment: (a) Winter, where the catchment produces only water and very little sediment; (b) Spring, where the majority of water and sediment is produced; and (c) Summer-Autumn, when little runoff is produced but significant amount of sediments is exported out of the catchment. Results show as land use and climate change may have an important

  14. Assessment of Runoff Contributing Catchment Areas in Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren Liedtke; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2005-01-01

    to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literary values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literary values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchments. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  15. Real Time Updating in Distributed Urban Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Borup, Morten; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Grum, Morten; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    When it rains on urban areas the rainfall runoff is transported out of the city via the drainage system. Frequently, the drainage system cannot handle all the rain water, which results in problems like flooding or overflows into natural water bodies. To reduce these problems the systems are equipped with basins and automated structures that allow for a large degree of control of the systems, but in order to do this optimally it is required to know what is happening throughout the system. For ...

  16. The time variability of evapotranspiration and soil water storage in long series of rainfall-runoff process

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Buchtele, Josef; Tesař, Miroslav

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 64, č. 3 (2009), s. 575-579 ISSN 0006-3088 R&D Projects: GA MŽP(CZ) SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : evapotranspiration components * evapotranspiration demand * land use * natural affection of runoff * rainfall- runoff simulation * vegetation change Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.617, year: 2009

  17. Modeling rainfall-runoff process using soft computing techniques

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kisi, Ozgur; Shiri, Jalal; Tombul, Mustafa

    2013-02-01

    Rainfall-runoff process was modeled for a small catchment in Turkey, using 4 years (1987-1991) of measurements of independent variables of rainfall and runoff values. The models used in the study were Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs), Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (ANFIS) and Gene Expression Programming (GEP) which are Artificial Intelligence (AI) approaches. The applied models were trained and tested using various combinations of the independent variables. The goodness of fit for the model was evaluated in terms of the coefficient of determination (R2), root mean square error (RMSE), mean absolute error (MAE), coefficient of efficiency (CE) and scatter index (SI). A comparison was also made between these models and traditional Multi Linear Regression (MLR) model. The study provides evidence that GEP (with RMSE=17.82 l/s, MAE=6.61 l/s, CE=0.72 and R2=0.978) is capable of modeling rainfall-runoff process and is a viable alternative to other applied artificial intelligence and MLR time-series methods.

  18. Integration of rainfall/runoff and geomorphological analyses flood hazard in small catchments: case studies from the southern Apennines (Italy)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Palumbo, Manuela; Ascione, Alessandra; Santangelo, Nicoletta; Santo, Antonio

    2017-04-01

    We present the first results of an analysis of flood hazard in ungauged mountain catchments that are associated with intensely urbanized alluvial fans. Assessment of hydrological hazard has been based on the integration of rainfall/runoff modelling of drainage basins with geomorphological analysis and mapping. Some small and steep, ungauged mountain catchments located in various areas of the southern Apennines, in southern Italy, have been chosen as test sites. In the last centuries, the selected basins have been subject to heavy and intense precipitation events, which have caused flash floods with serious damages in the correlated alluvial fan areas. Available spatial information (regional technical maps, DEMs, land use maps, geological/lithological maps, orthophotos) and an automated GIS-based procedure (ArcGis tools and ArcHydro tools) have been used to extract morphological, hydrological and hydraulic parameters. Such parameters have been used to run the HEC (Hydrologic Engineering Center of the US Army Corps of Engineers) software (GeoHMS, GeoRAS, HMS and RAS) based on rainfall-runoff models, which have allowed the hydrological and hydraulic simulations. As the floods occurred in the studied catchments have been debris flows dominated, the solid load simulation has been also performed. In order to validate the simulations, we have compared results of the modelling with the effects produced by past floods. Such effects have been quantified through estimations of both the sediment volumes within each catchment that have the potential to be mobilised (pre-event) during a sediment transfer event, and the volume of sediments delivered by the debris flows at basins' outlets (post-event). The post-event sediment volume has been quantified through post-event surveys and Lidar data. Evaluation of the pre-event sediment volumes in single catchments has been based on mapping of sediment storages that may constitute source zones of bed load transport and debris flows. For

  19. Assessment of runoff contributing catchment areas in rainfall runoff modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Thorndahl, Søren; Johansen, C.; Schaarup-Jensen, Kjeld

    2006-01-01

    In numerical modelling of rainfall caused runoff in urban sewer systems an essential parameter is the hydrological reduction factor which defines the percentage of the impervious area contributing to the surface flow towards the sewer. As the hydrological processes during a rainfall are difficult...... to determine with significant precision the hydrological reduction factor is implemented to account all hydrological losses except the initial loss. This paper presents an inconsistency between calculations of the hydrological reduction factor, based on measurements of rainfall and runoff, and till now...... recommended literature values for residential areas. It is proven by comparing rainfall-runoff measurements from four different residential catchments that the literature values of the hydrological reduction factor are over-estimated for this type of catchment. In addition, different catchment descriptions...

  20. Rainfall-runoff modeling in the Turkey River using numerical and ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Modeling rainfall-runoff relationships in a watershed have an important role in water resources engineering. Researchers have used numerical models for modeling rainfall-runoff ... Also, by using SPSS software, the regression equations were developed and then the best equation was selected from regression analysis.

  1. Analysis of one dimension migration law from rainfall runoff on urban roof

    Science.gov (United States)

    Weiwei, Chen

    2017-08-01

    Research was taken on the hydrology and water quality process in the natural rain condition and water samples were collected and analyzed. The pollutant were included SS, COD and TN. Based on the mass balance principle, one dimension migration model was built for the rainfall runoff pollution in surface. The difference equation was developed according to the finite difference method, by applying the Newton iteration method for solving it. The simulated pollutant concentration process was in consistent with the measured value on model, and Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient was higher than 0.80. The model had better practicability, which provided evidence for effectively utilizing urban rainfall resource, non-point source pollution of making management technologies and measures, sponge city construction, and so on.

  2. Enrichment behavior and transport mechanism of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Bin; Han, Feng; Lin, Zhongrong; Wang, Xuejun

    2012-12-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported by surface runoff result in nonpoint source pollution and jeopardize aquatic ecosystems. The transport mechanism of PAHs during rainfall-runoff events has been rarely studied regarding pervious areas. An experimental system was setup to simulate the runoff pollution process on PAHs-contaminated soil. The enrichment behavior of soil-bound PAHs was investigated. The results show that soil organic matters (SOM), rather than clay particles, seem to be the main carrier of PAHs. The enrichment is highly conditioned on runoff and erosion processes, and its magnitude varies among PAH compounds. It is not feasible to build a simple and universal relationship between enrichment ratio and sediment discharge following the traditional enrichment theory. To estimate the flux of PAHs from pervious areas, soil erosion process has to be clearly understood, and both organic carbon content and composition of SOM should be factored into the calculation. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  3. A coupled weather generator - rainfall-runoff approach on hourly time steps for flood risk analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Winter, Benjamin; Schneeberger, Klaus; Dung Nguyen, Viet; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Huttenlau, Matthias; Merz, Bruno; Stötter, Johann

    2017-04-01

    The evaluation of potential monetary damage of flooding is an essential part of flood risk management. One possibility to estimate the monetary risk is to analyze long time series of observed flood events and their corresponding damages. In reality, however, only few flood events are documented. This limitation can be overcome by the generation of a set of synthetic, physically and spatial plausible flood events and subsequently the estimation of the resulting monetary damages. In the present work, a set of synthetic flood events is generated by a continuous rainfall-runoff simulation in combination with a coupled weather generator and temporal disaggregation procedure for the study area of Vorarlberg (Austria). Most flood risk studies focus on daily time steps, however, the mesoscale alpine study area is characterized by short concentration times, leading to large differences between daily mean and daily maximum discharge. Accordingly, an hourly time step is needed for the simulations. The hourly metrological input for the rainfall-runoff model is generated in a two-step approach. A synthetic daily dataset is generated by a multivariate and multisite weather generator and subsequently disaggregated to hourly time steps with a k-Nearest-Neighbor model. Following the event generation procedure, the negative consequences of flooding are analyzed. The corresponding flood damage for each synthetic event is estimated by combining the synthetic discharge at representative points of the river network with a loss probability relation for each community in the study area. The loss probability relation is based on exposure and susceptibility analyses on a single object basis (residential buildings) for certain return periods. For these impact analyses official inundation maps of the study area are used. Finally, by analyzing the total event time series of damages, the expected annual damage or losses associated with a certain probability of occurrence can be estimated for

  4. Transport mechanisms of soil-bound mercury in the erosion process during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Yi; Luo, Xiaolin; Zhang, Wei; Wu, Xin; Zhang, Juan; Han, Feng

    2016-08-01

    Soil contamination by mercury (Hg) is a global environmental issue. In watersheds with a significant soil Hg storage, soil erosion during rainfall-runoff events can result in nonpoint source (NPS) Hg pollution and therefore, can extend its environmental risk from soils to aquatic ecosystems. Nonetheless, transport mechanisms of soil-bound Hg in the erosion process have not been explored directly, and how different fractions of soil organic matter (SOM) impact transport is not fully understood. This study investigated transport mechanisms based on rainfall-runoff simulation experiments. The experiments simulated high-intensity and long-duration rainfall conditions, which can produce significant soil erosion and NPS pollution. The enrichment ratio (ER) of total mercury (THg) was the key variable in exploring the mechanisms. The main study findings include the following: First, the ER-sediment flux relationship for Hg depends on soil composition, and no uniform ER-sediment flux function exists for different soils. Second, depending on soil composition, significantly more Hg could be released from a less polluted soil in the early stage of large rainfall events. Third, the heavy fraction of SOM (i.e., the remnant organic matter coating on mineral particles) has a dominant influence on the enrichment behavior and transport mechanisms of Hg, while clay mineral content exhibits a significant, but indirect, influence. The study results imply that it is critical to quantify the SOM composition in addition to total organic carbon (TOC) for different soils in the watershed to adequately model the NPS pollution of Hg and spatially prioritize management actions in a heterogeneous watershed. Copyright © 2016 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  5. Assimilating satellite soil moisture into rainfall-runoff modelling: towards a systematic study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Massari, Christian; Tarpanelli, Angelica; Brocca, Luca; Moramarco, Tommaso

    2015-04-01

    Soil moisture is the main factor for the repartition of the mass and energy fluxes between the land surface and the atmosphere thus playing a fundamental role in the hydrological cycle. Indeed, soil moisture represents the initial condition of rainfall-runoff modelling that determines the flood response of a catchment. Different initial soil moisture conditions can discriminate between catastrophic and minor effects of a given rainfall event. Therefore, improving the estimation of initial soil moisture conditions will reduce uncertainties in early warning flood forecasting models addressing the mitigation of flood hazard. In recent years, satellite soil moisture products have become available with fine spatial-temporal resolution and a good accuracy. Therefore, a number of studies have been published in which the impact of the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is investigated. Unfortunately, data assimilation involves a series of assumptions and choices that significantly affect the final result. Given a satellite soil moisture observation, a rainfall-runoff model and a data assimilation technique, an improvement or a deterioration of discharge predictions can be obtained depending on the choices made in the data assimilation procedure. Consequently, large discrepancies have been obtained in the studies published so far likely due to the differences in the implementation of the data assimilation technique. On this basis, a comprehensive and robust procedure for the assimilation of satellite soil moisture data into rainfall-runoff modelling is developed here and applied to six subcatchment of the Upper Tiber River Basin for which high-quality hydrometeorological hourly observations are available in the period 1989-2013. The satellite soil moisture product used in this study is obtained from the Advanced SCATterometer (ASCAT) onboard Metop-A satellite and it is available since 2007. The MISDc ("Modello Idrologico Semi

  6. Modeling of the Monthly Rainfall-Runoff Process Through Regressions

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Campos-Aranda Daniel Francisco

    2014-10-01

    Full Text Available To solve the problems associated with the assessment of water resources of a river, the modeling of the rainfall-runoff process (RRP allows the deduction of runoff missing data and to extend its record, since generally the information available on precipitation is larger. It also enables the estimation of inputs to reservoirs, when their building led to the suppression of the gauging station. The simplest mathematical model that can be set for the RRP is the linear regression or curve on a monthly basis. Such a model is described in detail and is calibrated with the simultaneous record of monthly rainfall and runoff in Ballesmi hydrometric station, which covers 35 years. Since the runoff of this station has an important contribution from the spring discharge, the record is corrected first by removing that contribution. In order to do this a procedure was developed based either on the monthly average regional runoff coefficients or on nearby and similar watershed; in this case the Tancuilín gauging station was used. Both stations belong to the Partial Hydrologic Region No. 26 (Lower Rio Panuco and are located within the state of San Luis Potosi, México. The study performed indicates that the monthly regression model, due to its conceptual approach, faithfully reproduces monthly average runoff volumes and achieves an excellent approximation in relation to the dispersion, proved by calculation of the means and standard deviations.

  7. Derivation of flood frequency curves in poorly gauged Mediterranean catchments using a simple stochastic hydrological rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aronica, G. T.; Candela, A.

    2007-12-01

    SummaryIn this paper a Monte Carlo procedure for deriving frequency distributions of peak flows using a semi-distributed stochastic rainfall-runoff model is presented. The rainfall-runoff model here used is very simple one, with a limited number of parameters and practically does not require any calibration, resulting in a robust tool for those catchments which are partially or poorly gauged. The procedure is based on three modules: a stochastic rainfall generator module, a hydrologic loss module and a flood routing module. In the rainfall generator module the rainfall storm, i.e. the maximum rainfall depth for a fixed duration, is assumed to follow the two components extreme value (TCEV) distribution whose parameters have been estimated at regional scale for Sicily. The catchment response has been modelled by using the Soil Conservation Service-Curve Number (SCS-CN) method, in a semi-distributed form, for the transformation of total rainfall to effective rainfall and simple form of IUH for the flood routing. Here, SCS-CN method is implemented in probabilistic form with respect to prior-to-storm conditions, allowing to relax the classical iso-frequency assumption between rainfall and peak flow. The procedure is tested on six practical case studies where synthetic FFC (flood frequency curve) were obtained starting from model variables distributions by simulating 5000 flood events combining 5000 values of total rainfall depth for the storm duration and AMC (antecedent moisture conditions) conditions. The application of this procedure showed how Monte Carlo simulation technique can reproduce the observed flood frequency curves with reasonable accuracy over a wide range of return periods using a simple and parsimonious approach, limited data input and without any calibration of the rainfall-runoff model.

  8. Rainfall Runoff Mitigation by Retrofitted Permeable Pavement in an Urban Area

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Shafique

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available Permeable pavement is an effective low impact development (LID practice that can play an important role in reducing rainfall runoff amount in urban areas. Permeable interlocking concrete pavement (PICP was retrofitted in a tremendously developed area of Seoul, Korea and the data was monitored to evaluate its effect on the hydrology and stormwater quality performance for four months. Rainfall runoff was first absorbed by different layers of the PICP system and then contributed to the sewage system. This not only helps to reduce the runoff volume, but also increase the time of concentration. In this experiment, different real rain events were observed and the field results were investigated to check the effectiveness of the PICP system for controlling the rainfall runoff in Songpa, Korea. From the analysis of data, results showed that the PCIP system was very effective in controlling rainfall runoff. Overall runoff reduction performance from the PCIP was found to be around 30–65% during various storm events. In addition, PICP significantly reduced peak flows in different storm events which is very helpful in reducing the chances of water-logging in an urbanized area. Research results also allow us to sum up that retrofitted PICP is a very effective approach for rainfall runoff management in urban areas.

  9. [Monitoring and analysis on evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality in urban area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dong, Wen; Li, Huai-En; Li, Jia-Ke

    2013-02-01

    In order to find the water quality evolution law and pollution characteristics of the rainfall runoff from undisturbed to the neighborhood exit, 6 times evolution process of rainfall runoff water quality were monitored and analyzed from July to October in 2011, and contrasted the clarification efficiency of the grassland to the roof runoff rudimentarily at the same time. The research showed: 1. the results of the comparison from "undisturbed, rainfall-roof, rainfall runoff-road, rainfall-runoff the neighborhood exit runoff " showed that the water quality of the undisturbed rain was better than that from the roof and the neighborhood exist, but the road rainfall runoff water quality was the worst; 2. the average concentrations of the parameters such as COD, ammonia nitrogen and total nitrogen all exceeded the Fifth Class of the Surface Water Quality Standard except for the soluble total phosphorus from undisturbed rainfall to the neighborhood exit; 3. the runoff water quality of the short early fine days was better than that of long early fine days, and the last runoff water quality was better than that of the initial runoff in the same rainfall process; 4. the concentration reduction of the grassland was notable, and the reduction rate of the grassland which is 1.0 meter wide of the roof runoff pollutants such as COD and nitrogen reached 30%.

  10. Impact of carbonaceous materials in soil on the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Luo, Xiaolin; Zheng, Yi; Wu, Bin; Lin, Zhongrong; Han, Feng; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

    2013-01-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported from contaminated soils by surface runoff pose significant risk for aquatic ecosystems. Based on a rainfall-runoff simulation experiment, this study investigated the impact of carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil, identified by organic petrology analysis, on the transport of soil-bound PAHs under rainfall conditions. The hypothesis that composition of soil organic matter significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs was proved. CMs in soil, varying significantly in content, mobility and adsorption capacity, act differently on the transport of PAHs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon (BC) largely control the transport, as PAHs may be preferentially attached to them. Eventually, this study led to a rethink of the traditional enrichment theory. An important implication is that CMs in soil have to be explicitly considered to appropriately model the nonpoint source pollution of PAHs (possibly other hydrophobic chemicals as well) and assess its environmental risk. -- Highlights: •Composition of SOM significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs. •Anthropogenic carbonaceous materials in soil largely control the transport of PAHs. •The classic enrichment theory is invalid if anthropogenic CMs are abundant in the soil. •Organic petrology analysis introduced to study the fate and transport of PAHs. -- Anthropogenic carbonaceous materials in soil, especially black carbon, largely control the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events

  11. Event-based model diagnosis of rainfall-runoff model structures

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Stanzel, P.

    2012-01-01

    The objective of this research is a comparative evaluation of different rainfall-runoff model structures. Comparative model diagnostics facilitate the assessment of strengths and weaknesses of each model. The application of multiple models allows an analysis of simulation uncertainties arising from the selection of model structure, as compared with effects of uncertain parameters and precipitation input. Four different model structures, including conceptual and physically based approaches, are compared. In addition to runoff simulations, results for soil moisture and the runoff components of overland flow, interflow and base flow are analysed. Catchment runoff is simulated satisfactorily by all four model structures and shows only minor differences. Systematic deviations from runoff observations provide insight into model structural deficiencies. While physically based model structures capture some single runoff events better, they do not generally outperform conceptual model structures. Contributions to uncertainty in runoff simulations stemming from the choice of model structure show similar dimensions to those arising from parameter selection and the representation of precipitation input. Variations in precipitation mainly affect the general level and peaks of runoff, while different model structures lead to different simulated runoff dynamics. Large differences between the four analysed models are detected for simulations of soil moisture and, even more pronounced, runoff components. Soil moisture changes are more dynamical in the physically based model structures, which is in better agreement with observations. Streamflow contributions of overland flow are considerably lower in these models than in the more conceptual approaches. Observations of runoff components are rarely made and are not available in this study, but are shown to have high potential for an effective selection of appropriate model structures (author) [de

  12. Inferring the flood frequency distribution for an ungauged basin using a spatially distributed rainfall-runoff model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Moretti

    2008-08-01

    Full Text Available The estimation of the peak river flow for ungauged river sections is a topical issue in applied hydrology. Spatially distributed rainfall-runoff models can be a useful tool to this end, since they are potentially able to simulate the river flow at any location of the watershed drainage network. However, it is not fully clear to what extent these models can provide reliable simulations over a wide range of spatial scales. This issue is investigated here by applying a spatially distributed, continuous simulation rainfall-runoff model to infer the flood frequency distribution of the Riarbero River. This is an ungauged mountain creek located in northern Italy, whose drainage area is 17 km2. The hydrological model is first calibrated by using a 1-year record of hourly meteorological data and river flows observed at the outlet of the 1294 km2 wide Secchia River basin, of which the Riarbero is a tributary. The model is then validated by performing a 100-year long simulation of synthetic river flow data, which allowed us to compare the simulated and observed flood frequency distributions at the Secchia River outlet and the internal cross river section of Cavola Bridge, where the basin area is 337 km2. Finally, another simulation of hourly river flows was performed by referring to the outlet of the Riarbero River, therefore allowing us to estimate the related flood frequency distribution. The results were validated by using estimates of peak river flow obtained by applying hydrological similarity principles and a regional method. The results show that the flood flow estimated through the application of the distributed model is consistent with the estimate provided by the regional procedure as well as the behaviors of the river banks. Conversely, the method based on hydrological similarity delivers an estimate that seems to be not as reliable. The analysis highlights interesting perspectives for the application of

  13. Analysis and Modeling of Time-Correlated Characteristics of Rainfall-Runoff Similarity in the Upstream Red River Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Xiuli Sang

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available We constructed a similarity model (based on Euclidean distance between rainfall and runoff to study time-correlated characteristics of rainfall-runoff similar patterns in the upstream Red River Basin and presented a detailed evaluation of the time correlation of rainfall-runoff similarity. The rainfall-runoff similarity was used to determine the optimum similarity. The results showed that a time-correlated model was found to be capable of predicting the rainfall-runoff similarity in the upstream Red River Basin in a satisfactory way. Both noised and denoised time series by thresholding the wavelet coefficients were applied to verify the accuracy of model. And the corresponding optimum similar sets obtained as the equation solution conditions showed an interesting and stable trend. On the whole, the annual mean similarity presented a gradually rising trend, for quantitatively estimating comprehensive influence of climate change and of human activities on rainfall-runoff similarity.

  14. Wildcat5 for Windows, a rainfall-runoff hydrograph model: user manual and documentation

    Science.gov (United States)

    R. H. Hawkins; A. Barreto-Munoz

    2016-01-01

    Wildcat5 for Windows (Wildcat5) is an interactive Windows Excel-based software package designed to assist watershed specialists in analyzing rainfall runoff events to predict peak flow and runoff volumes generated by single-event rainstorms for a variety of watershed soil and vegetation conditions. Model inputs are: (1) rainstorm characteristics, (2) parameters related...

  15. Consequences of changes to the NRCS rainfall-runoff relations on hydrologic design

    Science.gov (United States)

    A proposed quantification of the fundamental concepts in the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) rainfall-runoff relation is examined to determine changes relevant to peak discharge estimation and drainage design. Changes to the NRCS curve number, storage, and initial abstraction relations...

  16. Daily rainfall-runoff modelling by neural networks in semi-arid zone ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    This research work will allow checking efficiency of formal neural networks for flows' modelling of wadi Ouahrane's basin from rainfall-runoff relation which is non-linear. Two models of neural networks were optimized through supervised learning and compared in order to achieve this goal, the first model with input rain, and ...

  17. Added value of distribution in rainfall-runoff models for the Meuse basin

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Boer, T.

    2017-01-01

    Why do equal precipitation events not lead to equal discharge events across space and time? The easy answer would be because catchments are different, which then leads to the second question: Why do hydrologists often use the same rainfall-runoff model for different catchments? Probably because

  18. Anomaly in the rainfall-runoff behaviour of the Meuse catchment. Climate, land-use, or land-use management?

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    F. Fenicia

    2009-09-01

    Full Text Available The objective of this paper is to investigate the time variability of catchment characteristics in the Meuse basin through its effect on catchment response. The approach uses a conceptual model to represent rainfall-runoff behaviour of this catchment, and evaluates possible time-dependence of model parameters. The main hypothesis is that conceptual model parameters, although not measurable quantities, are representative of specific catchment attributes (e.g. geology, land-use, land management, topography. Hence, we assume that eventual trends in model parameters are representative of catchment attributes that may have changed over time. The available hydrological record involves ninety years of data, starting in 1911. During this period the Meuse catchment has undergone significant modifications. The catchment structural modifications, although documented, are not available as "hard-data". Hence, our results should be considered as "plausible hypotheses". The main motivation of this work is the "anomaly" found in the rainfall runoff behaviour of the Meuse basin, where ninety years of rainfall-runoff simulations show a consistent overestimation of the runoff in the period between 1930 and 1965. Different authors have debated possible causes for the "anomaly", including climatic variability, land-use change and data errors. None of the authors considered the way in which the land is used by for instance agricultural and forestry practises. This aspect influenced the model design, which has been configured to account for different evaporation demand of growing forest. As a result of our analysis, we conclude that the lag time of the catchment has decreased significantly over time, which we attribute to more intensive drainage and river training works. Furthermore, we hypothesise that forest rotation has had a significant impact on the evaporation of the catchment. These results contrast with previous studies, where the effect of land-use change on

  19. Impact of carbonaceous materials in soil on the transport of soil-bound PAHs during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, Xiaolin; Zheng, Yi; Wu, Bin; Lin, Zhongrong; Han, Feng; Zhang, Wei; Wang, Xuejun

    2013-11-01

    Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) transported from contaminated soils by surface runoff pose significant risk for aquatic ecosystems. Based on a rainfall-runoff simulation experiment, this study investigated the impact of carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil, identified by organic petrology analysis, on the transport of soil-bound PAHs under rainfall conditions. The hypothesis that composition of soil organic matter significantly impacts the enrichment and transport of PAHs was proved. CMs in soil, varying significantly in content, mobility and adsorption capacity, act differently on the transport of PAHs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon (BC) largely control the transport, as PAHs may be preferentially attached to them. Eventually, this study led to a rethink of the traditional enrichment theory. An important implication is that CMs in soil have to be explicitly considered to appropriately model the nonpoint source pollution of PAHs (possibly other hydrophobic chemicals as well) and assess its environmental risk. Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  20. Along the Rainfall-Runoff Chain: From Scaling of Greatest Point Rainfall to Global Change Attribution

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fraedrich, K.

    2014-12-01

    Processes along the continental rainfall-runoff chain cover a wide range of time and space scales which are presented here combining observations (ranging from minutes to decades) and minimalist concepts. (i) Rainfall, which can be simulated by a censored first-order autoregressive process (vertical moisture fluxes), exhibits 1/f-spectra if presented as binary events (tropics), while extrema world wide increase with duration according to Jennings' scaling law. (ii) Runoff volatility (Yangtze) shows data collapse which, linked to an intra-annual 1/f-spectrum, is represented by a single function not unlike physical systems at criticality and the short and long return times of extremes are Weibull-distributed. Atmospheric and soil moisture variabilities are also discussed. (iii) Soil moisture (in a bucket), whose variability is interpreted by a biased coinflip Ansatz for rainfall events, adds an equation of state to energy and water flux balances comprising Budyko's frame work for quasi-stationary watershed analysis. Eco-hydrologic state space presentations in terms of surface flux ratios of energy excess (loss by sensible heat over supply by net radiation) versus water excess (loss by discharge over gain by precipitation) allow attributions of state change to external (or climate) and internal (or anthropogenic) causes. Including the vegetation-greenness index (NDVI) as an active tracer extends the eco-hydrologic state space analysis to supplement the common geographical presentations. Two examples demonstrate the approach combining ERA and MODIS data sets: (a) global geobotanic classification by combining first and second moments of the dryness ratio (net radiation over precipitation) and (b) regional attributions (Tibetan Plateau) of vegetation changes.

  1. HYDROSCAPE: A SCAlable and ParallelizablE Rainfall Runoff Model for Hydrological Applications

    Science.gov (United States)

    Piccolroaz, S.; Di Lazzaro, M.; Zarlenga, A.; Majone, B.; Bellin, A.; Fiori, A.

    2015-12-01

    In this work we present HYDROSCAPE, an innovative streamflow routing method based on the travel time approach, and modeled through a fine-scale geomorphological description of hydrological flow paths. The model is designed aimed at being easily coupled with weather forecast or climate models providing the hydrological forcing, and at the same time preserving the geomorphological dispersion of the river network, which is kept unchanged independently on the grid size of rainfall input. This makes HYDROSCAPE particularly suitable for multi-scale applications, ranging from medium size catchments up to the continental scale, and to investigate the effects of extreme rainfall events that require an accurate description of basin response timing. Key feature of the model is its computational efficiency, which allows performing a large number of simulations for sensitivity/uncertainty analyses in a Monte Carlo framework. Further, the model is highly parsimonious, involving the calibration of only three parameters: one defining the residence time of hillslope response, one for channel velocity, and a multiplicative factor accounting for uncertainties in the identification of the potential maximum soil moisture retention in the SCS-CN method. HYDROSCAPE is designed with a simple and flexible modular structure, which makes it particularly prone to massive parallelization, customization according to the specific user needs and preferences (e.g., rainfall-runoff model), and continuous development and improvement. Finally, the possibility to specify the desired computational time step and evaluate streamflow at any location in the domain, makes HYDROSCAPE an attractive tool for many hydrological applications, and a valuable alternative to more complex and highly parametrized large scale hydrological models. Together with model development and features, we present an application to the Upper Tiber River basin (Italy), providing a practical example of model performance and

  2. Development of a transient, lumped hydrologic model for geomorphologic units in a geomorphology based rainfall-runoff modelling framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vannametee, E.; Karssenberg, D.; Hendriks, M. R.; de Jong, S. M.; Bierkens, M. F. P.

    2010-05-01

    We propose a modelling framework for distributed hydrological modelling of 103-105 km2 catchments by discretizing the catchment in geomorphologic units. Each of these units is modelled using a lumped model representative for the processes in the unit. Here, we focus on the development and parameterization of this lumped model as a component of our framework. The development of the lumped model requires rainfall-runoff data for an extensive set of geomorphological units. Because such large observational data sets do not exist, we create artificial data. With a high-resolution, physically-based, rainfall-runoff model, we create artificial rainfall events and resulting hydrographs for an extensive set of different geomorphological units. This data set is used to identify the lumped model of geomorphologic units. The advantage of this approach is that it results in a lumped model with a physical basis, with representative parameters that can be derived from point-scale measurable physical parameters. The approach starts with the development of the high-resolution rainfall-runoff model that generates an artificial discharge dataset from rainfall inputs as a surrogate of a real-world dataset. The model is run for approximately 105 scenarios that describe different characteristics of rainfall, properties of the geomorphologic units (i.e. slope gradient, unit length and regolith properties), antecedent moisture conditions and flow patterns. For each scenario-run, the results of the high-resolution model (i.e. runoff and state variables) at selected simulation time steps are stored in a database. The second step is to develop the lumped model of a geomorphological unit. This forward model consists of a set of simple equations that calculate Hortonian runoff and state variables of the geomorphologic unit over time. The lumped model contains only three parameters: a ponding factor, a linear reservoir parameter, and a lag time. The model is capable of giving an appropriate

  3. Modification of a rainfall-runoff model for distributed modeling in a GIS and its validation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nyabeze, W. R.

    A rainfall-runoff model, which can be inter-faced with a Geographical Information System (GIS) to integrate definition, measurement, calculating parameter values for spatial features, presents considerable advantages. The modification of the GWBasic Wits Rainfall-Runoff Erosion Model (GWBRafler) to enable parameter value estimation in a GIS (GISRafler) is presented in this paper. Algorithms are applied to estimate parameter values reducing the number of input parameters and the effort to populate them. The use of a GIS makes the relationship between parameter estimates and cover characteristics more evident. This paper has been produced as part of research to generalize the GWBRafler on a spatially distributed basis. Modular data structures are assumed and parameter values are weighted relative to the module area and centroid properties. Modifications to the GWBRafler enable better estimation of low flows, which are typical in drought conditions.

  4. RAINFALL-RUNOFF MODELING IN THE TURKEY RIVER USING ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2015-01-15

    Jan 15, 2015 ... self-correction of the network, self-organization, which means that the ... Fuzzy logic and fuzzy set theory have been widely used to simulate the ambiguity and ... 80% and 20% data were used in train and verification process.

  5. Assessment of initial soil moisture conditions for event-based rainfall-runoff modelling

    OpenAIRE

    Tramblay, Yves; Bouvier, Christophe; Martin, C.; Didon-Lescot, J. F.; Todorovik, D.; Domergue, J. M.

    2010-01-01

    Flash floods are the most destructive natural hazards that occur in the Mediterranean region. Rainfall-runoff models can be very useful for flash flood forecasting and prediction. Event-based models are very popular for operational purposes, but there is a need to reduce the uncertainties related to the initial moisture conditions estimation prior to a flood event. This paper aims to compare several soil moisture indicators: local Time Domain Reflectometry (TDR) measurements of soil moisture,...

  6. Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chlumecký, Martin; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, Karel

    2017-10-01

    The efficient calibration of rainfall-runoff models is a difficult issue, even for experienced hydrologists. Therefore, fast and high-quality model calibration is a valuable improvement. This paper describes a novel methodology and software for the optimisation of a rainfall-runoff modelling using a genetic algorithm (GA) with a newly prepared concept of a random number generator (HRNG), which is the core of the optimisation. The GA estimates model parameters using evolutionary principles, which requires a quality number generator. The new HRNG generates random numbers based on hydrological information and it provides better numbers compared to pure software generators. The GA enhances the model calibration very well and the goal is to optimise the calibration of the model with a minimum of user interaction. This article focuses on improving the internal structure of the GA, which is shielded from the user. The results that we obtained indicate that the HRNG provides a stable trend in the output quality of the model, despite various configurations of the GA. In contrast to previous research, the HRNG speeds up the calibration of the model and offers an improvement of rainfall-runoff modelling.

  7. SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds. The two-CN system approach

    OpenAIRE

    K. X. Soulis; J. D. Valiantzas

    2011-01-01

    The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN values can be estimated by being selected from tables. However, it is more accurate to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data (assumed available) in a watershed. Previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. The...

  8. Rainfall-runoff characteristics and effects of increased urban density on streamflow and infiltration in the eastern part of the San Jacinto River basin, Riverside County, California

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guay, Joel R.

    2002-01-01

    To better understand the rainfall-runoff characteristics of the eastern part of the San Jacinto River Basin and to estimate the effects of increased urbanization on streamflow, channel infiltration, and land-surface infiltration, a long-term (1950?98) time series of monthly flows in and out of the channels and land surfaces were simulated using the Hydrologic Simulation Program- FORTRAN (HSPF) rainfall-runoff model. Channel and land-surface infiltration includes rainfall or runoff that infiltrates past the zone of evapotranspiration and may become ground-water recharge. The study area encompasses about 256 square miles of the San Jacinto River drainage basin in Riverside County, California. Daily streamflow (for periods with available data between 1950 and 1998), and daily rainfall and evaporation (1950?98) data; monthly reservoir storage data (1961?98); and estimated mean annual reservoir inflow data (for 1974 conditions) were used to calibrate the rainfall-runoff model. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (North-South Fork subbasin) for 1950?91 and 1997?98 were 14,000 and 14,200 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.4 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the North-South Fork subbasin was 3,520 and 3,160 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated mean annual streamflows for the Bautista Creek streamflow-gaging station (Bautista Creek subbasin) for 1950?98 were 980 acre-feet and 991 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 1.1 percent. The standard error of the mean for measured and simulated annual streamflow in the Bautista Creek subbasin was 299 and 217 acre-feet, respectively. Measured and simulated annual streamflows for the San Jacinto River above State Street near San Jacinto streamflow-gaging station (Poppet subbasin) for 1998 were 23,400 and 23,500 acre-feet, respectively, a difference of 0.4 percent. The simulated

  9. Applying volumetric weather radar data for rainfall runoff modeling: The importance of error correction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Delobbe, L.; Weerts, A.; Reggiani, P.

    2009-04-01

    In the current study half a year of volumetric radar data for the period October 1, 2002 until March 31, 2003 is being analyzed which was sampled at 5 minutes intervals by C-band Doppler radar situated at an elevation of 600 m in the southern Ardennes region, Belgium. During this winter half year most of the rainfall has a stratiform character. Though radar and raingauge will never sample the same amount of rainfall due to differences in sampling strategies, for these stratiform situations differences between both measuring devices become even larger due to the occurrence of a bright band (the point where ice particles start to melt intensifying the radar reflectivity measurement). For these circumstances the radar overestimates the amount of precipitation and because in the Ardennes bright bands occur within 1000 meter from the surface, it's detrimental effects on the performance of the radar can already be observed at relatively close range (e.g. within 50 km). Although the radar is situated at one of the highest points in the region, very close to the radar clutter is a serious problem. As a result both nearby and farther away, using uncorrected radar results in serious errors when estimating the amount of precipitation. This study shows the effect of carefully correcting for these radar errors using volumetric radar data, taking into account the vertical reflectivity profile of the atmosphere, the effects of attenuation and trying to limit the amount of clutter. After applying these correction algorithms, the overall differences between radar and raingauge are much smaller which emphasizes the importance of carefully correcting radar rainfall measurements. The next step is to assess the effect of using uncorrected and corrected radar measurements on rainfall-runoff modeling. The 1597 km2 Ourthe catchment lies within 60 km of the radar. Using a lumped hydrological model serious improvement in simulating observed discharges is found when using corrected radar

  10. Integration and calibration of a conceptual rainfall-runoff model in the framework of a decision support system for river basin management

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Götzinger

    2005-01-01

    Full Text Available Water balance models provide significant input to integrated models that are used to simulate river basin processes. However, one of the primary problems involves the coupling and simultaneous calibration of rainfall-runoff and groundwater models. This problem manifests itself through circular arguments - the hydrologic model is modified to calculate highly discretized groundwater recharge rates as input to the groundwater model which provides modeled base flow for the flood-routing module of the rainfall-runoff model. A possibility to overcome this problem using a modified version of the HBV Model is presented in this paper. Regionalisation and optimization methods lead to objective and efficient calibration despite large numbers of parameters. The representation of model parameters by transfer functions of catchment characteristics enables consistent parameter estimation. By establishing such relationships, models are calibrated for the parameters of the transfer functions instead of the model parameters themselves. Simulated annealing, using weighted Nash-Sutcliffe-coefficients of variable temporal aggregation, assists in efficient parameterisations. The simulations are compared to observed discharge and groundwater recharge modeled by the State Institute for Environmental Protection Baden-Württemberg using the model TRAIN-GWN.

  11. Statistical determination of rainfall-runoff erosivity indices for single storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mingguo Zheng

    Full Text Available Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng's tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I20, EI10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I10, EI20 and EI30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations.

  12. Characteristics of PAHs in farmland soil and rainfall runoff in Tianjin, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shi, Rongguang; Xu, Mengmeng; Liu, Aifeng; Tian, Yong; Zhao, Zongshan

    2017-10-14

    Rainfall runoff can remove certain amounts of pollutants from contaminated farmland soil and result in a decline in water quality. However, the leaching behaviors of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs) with rainfall have been rarely reported due to wide variations in the soil compositions, rainfall conditions, and sources of soil PAHs in complex farmland ecosystems. In this paper, the levels, spatial distributions, and composition profiles of PAHs in 30 farmland soil samples and 49 rainfall-runoff samples from the Tianjin region in 2012 were studied to investigate their leaching behaviors caused by rainfall runoff. The contents of the Σ 16 PAHs ranged from 58.53 to 3137.90 μg/kg in the soil and 146.58 to 3636.59 μg/L in the runoff. In total, most of the soil sampling sites (23 of 30) were contaminated, and biomass and petroleum combustion were proposed as the main sources of the soil PAHs. Both the spatial distributions of the soil and the runoff PAHs show a decreasing trend moving away from the downtown, which suggested that the leaching behaviors of PAHs in a larger region during rainfall may be mainly affected by the compounds themselves. In addition, 4- and 5-ring PAHs are the dominant components in farmland soil and 3- and 4-ring PAHs dominate the runoff. Comparisons of the PAH pairs and enrichment ratios showed that acenaphthylene, acenaphthene, benzo[a]anthracene, chrysene, and fluoranthene were more easily transferred into water systems from soil than benzo[b]fluoranthene, benzo[k]fluoranthene, benzo[ghi]perylene, and indeno[123-cd]pyrene, which indicated that PAHs with low molecular weight are preferentially dissolved due to their higher solubility compared to those with high molecular weight.

  13. Statistical Determination of Rainfall-Runoff Erosivity Indices for Single Storms in the Chinese Loess Plateau

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Mingguo; Chen, Xiaoan

    2015-01-01

    Correlation analysis is popular in erosion- or earth-related studies, however, few studies compare correlations on a basis of statistical testing, which should be conducted to determine the statistical significance of the observed sample difference. This study aims to statistically determine the erosivity index of single storms, which requires comparison of a large number of dependent correlations between rainfall-runoff factors and soil loss, in the Chinese Loess Plateau. Data observed at four gauging stations and five runoff experimental plots were presented. Based on the Meng’s tests, which is widely used for comparing correlations between a dependent variable and a set of independent variables, two methods were proposed. The first method removes factors that are poorly correlated with soil loss from consideration in a stepwise way, while the second method performs pairwise comparisons that are adjusted using the Bonferroni correction. Among 12 rainfall factors, I 30 (the maximum 30-minute rainfall intensity) has been suggested for use as the rainfall erosivity index, although I 30 is equally correlated with soil loss as factors of I 20, EI 10 (the product of the rainfall kinetic energy, E, and I 10), EI 20 and EI 30 are. Runoff depth (total runoff volume normalized to drainage area) is more correlated with soil loss than all other examined rainfall-runoff factors, including I 30, peak discharge and many combined factors. Moreover, sediment concentrations of major sediment-producing events are independent of all examined rainfall-runoff factors. As a result, introducing additional factors adds little to the prediction accuracy of the single factor of runoff depth. Hence, runoff depth should be the best erosivity index at scales from plots to watersheds. Our findings can facilitate predictions of soil erosion in the Loess Plateau. Our methods provide a valuable tool while determining the predictor among a number of variables in terms of correlations. PMID

  14. Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Anomaa Senaviratne, G. M. M. M.; Udawatta, Ranjith P.; Anderson, Stephen H.; Baffaut, Claire; Thompson, Allen

    2014-09-01

    Fuzzy rainfall-runoff models are often used to forecast flood or water supply in large catchments and applications at small/field scale agricultural watersheds are limited. The study objectives were to develop, calibrate, and validate a fuzzy rainfall-runoff model using long-term data of three adjacent field scale row crop watersheds (1.65-4.44 ha) with intermittent discharge in the claypan soils of Northeast Missouri. The watersheds were monitored for a six-year calibration period starting 1991 (pre-buffer period). Thereafter, two of them were treated with upland contour grass and agroforestry (tree + grass) buffers (4.5 m wide, 36.5 m apart) to study water quality benefits. The fuzzy system was based on Mamdani method using MATLAB 7.10.0. The model predicted event-based runoff with model performance coefficients of r2 and Nash-Sutcliffe Coefficient (NSC) values greater than 0.65 for calibration and validation. The pre-buffer fuzzy system predicted event-based runoff for 30-50 times larger corn/soybean watersheds with r2 values of 0.82 and 0.68 and NSC values of 0.77 and 0.53, respectively. The runoff predicted by the fuzzy system closely agreed with values predicted by physically-based Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender model (APEX) for the pre-buffer watersheds. The fuzzy rainfall-runoff model has the potential for runoff predictions at field-scale watersheds with minimum input. It also could up-scale the predictions for large-scale watersheds to evaluate the benefits of conservation practices.

  15. Export Mechanisms of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTSs) in Urban Land Uses during Rainfall-Runoff Events: Experimental and Modeling Studies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zheng, Y.; Luo, X.; Lin, Z.

    2016-12-01

    The urban environment has a variety of Persistent Toxic Substances (PTS), such as Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and mercury. Soil in pervious lands and dust deposited on impervious surfaces are two major sinks of PTSs in urbanized areas, which could contribute significant nonpoint source loadings of PTSs to adjacent waterbodies during rainfall-runoff events and therefore jeopardize aquatic ecosystems. However, PTSs have been much less understood regarding their export mechanisms in urban land uses, and efforts to model nonpoint source pollution processes of PTSs have been rare. We designed and performed in-lab rainfall-runoff simulation experiments to investigate transport of PAHs and mercury by runoff from urban soils. Organic petrology analysis (OPA) techniques were introduced to analyze the soil and sediment compositions. Our study revealed the limitation of the classic enrichment theory which attributes enrichment of pollutants in eroded sediment solely to the sediment's particle size distribution and adopts simple relationships between enrichment ratio and sediment flux. We found that carbonaceous materials (CMs) in soil are the direct and major sorbents for PAHs and mercury, and highly different in content, mobility and adsorption capacity for the PTSs. Anthropogenic CMs like black carbon components largely control the transport of soil PAHs, while humic substances have a dominant influence on the transport of soil mercury. A model was further developed to estimate the enrichment ratio of PAHs, which innovatively applies the fugacity concept.We also conducted field studies on export of PAHs by runoff from urban roads. A variable time-step model was developed to simulate the continuous cycles of PAH buildup and washoff on urban roads. The dependence of the pollution level on antecedent weather conditions was investigated and embodied in the model. The applicability of this approach and its value to environmental management was demonstrated by a case

  16. Flood modelling with a distributed event-based parsimonious rainfall-runoff model: case of the karstic Lez river catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Coustau

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff models are crucial tools for the statistical prediction of flash floods and real-time forecasting. This paper focuses on a karstic basin in the South of France and proposes a distributed parsimonious event-based rainfall-runoff model, coherent with the poor knowledge of both evaporative and underground fluxes. The model combines a SCS runoff model and a Lag and Route routing model for each cell of a regular grid mesh. The efficiency of the model is discussed not only to satisfactorily simulate floods but also to get powerful relationships between the initial condition of the model and various predictors of the initial wetness state of the basin, such as the base flow, the Hu2 index from the Meteo-France SIM model and the piezometric levels of the aquifer. The advantage of using meteorological radar rainfall in flood modelling is also assessed. Model calibration proved to be satisfactory by using an hourly time step with Nash criterion values, ranging between 0.66 and 0.94 for eighteen of the twenty-one selected events. The radar rainfall inputs significantly improved the simulations or the assessment of the initial condition of the model for 5 events at the beginning of autumn, mostly in September–October (mean improvement of Nash is 0.09; correction in the initial condition ranges from −205 to 124 mm, but were less efficient for the events at the end of autumn. In this period, the weak vertical extension of the precipitation system and the low altitude of the 0 °C isotherm could affect the efficiency of radar measurements due to the distance between the basin and the radar (~60 km. The model initial condition S is correlated with the three tested predictors (R2 > 0.6. The interpretation of the model suggests that groundwater does not affect the first peaks of the flood, but can strongly impact subsequent peaks in the case of a multi-storm event. Because this kind of model is based on a limited

  17. Application of random number generators in genetic algorithms to improve rainfall-runoff modelling

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Chlumecký, M.; Buchtele, Josef; Richta, K.

    2017-01-01

    Roč. 553, October (2017), s. 350-355 ISSN 0022-1694 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : genetic algorithm * optimisation * rainfall-runoff modeling * random generator Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology OBOR OECD: Hydrology Impact factor: 3.483, year: 2016 https://ac.els-cdn.com/S0022169417305516/1-s2.0-S0022169417305516-main.pdf?_tid=fa1bad8a-bd6a-11e7-8567-00000aab0f27&acdnat=1509365462_a1335d3d997e9eab19e23b1eee977705

  18. Climate downscaling over South America for 1971-2000: application in SMAP rainfall-runoff model for Grande River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    da Silva, Felipe das Neves Roque; Alves, José Luis Drummond; Cataldi, Marcio

    2018-03-01

    This paper aims to validate inflow simulations concerning the present-day climate at Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Plant (AVHP—located on the Grande River Basin) based on the Soil Moisture Accounting Procedure (SMAP) hydrological model. In order to provide rainfall data to the SMAP model, the RegCM regional climate model was also used working with boundary conditions from the MIROC model. Initially, present-day climate simulation performed by RegCM model was analyzed. It was found that, in terms of rainfall, the model was able to simulate the main patterns observed over South America. A bias correction technique was also used and it was essential to reduce mistakes related to rainfall simulation. Comparison between rainfall simulations from RegCM and MIROC showed improvements when the dynamical downscaling was performed. Then, SMAP, a rainfall-runoff hydrological model, was used to simulate inflows at Água Vermelha Hydroelectric Plant. After calibration with observed rainfall, SMAP simulations were evaluated in two different periods from the one used in calibration. During calibration, SMAP captures the inflow variability observed at AVHP. During validation periods, the hydrological model obtained better results and statistics with observed rainfall. However, in spite of some discrepancies, the use of simulated rainfall without bias correction captured the interannual flow variability. However, the use of bias removal in the simulated rainfall performed by RegCM brought significant improvements to the simulation of natural inflows performed by SMAP. Not only the curve of simulated inflow became more similar to the observed inflow, but also the statistics improved their values. Improvements were also noticed in the inflow simulation when the rainfall was provided by the regional climate model compared to the global model. In general, results obtained so far prove that there was an added value in rainfall when regional climate model was compared to global climate

  19. Bayesian estimation of extreme flood quantiles using a rainfall-runoff model and a stochastic daily rainfall generator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Costa, Veber; Fernandes, Wilson

    2017-11-01

    Extreme flood estimation has been a key research topic in hydrological sciences. Reliable estimates of such events are necessary as structures for flood conveyance are continuously evolving in size and complexity and, as a result, their failure-associated hazards become more and more pronounced. Due to this fact, several estimation techniques intended to improve flood frequency analysis and reducing uncertainty in extreme quantile estimation have been addressed in the literature in the last decades. In this paper, we develop a Bayesian framework for the indirect estimation of extreme flood quantiles from rainfall-runoff models. In the proposed approach, an ensemble of long daily rainfall series is simulated with a stochastic generator, which models extreme rainfall amounts with an upper-bounded distribution function, namely, the 4-parameter lognormal model. The rationale behind the generation model is that physical limits for rainfall amounts, and consequently for floods, exist and, by imposing an appropriate upper bound for the probabilistic model, more plausible estimates can be obtained for those rainfall quantiles with very low exceedance probabilities. Daily rainfall time series are converted into streamflows by routing each realization of the synthetic ensemble through a conceptual hydrologic model, the Rio Grande rainfall-runoff model. Calibration of parameters is performed through a nonlinear regression model, by means of the specification of a statistical model for the residuals that is able to accommodate autocorrelation, heteroscedasticity and nonnormality. By combining the outlined steps in a Bayesian structure of analysis, one is able to properly summarize the resulting uncertainty and estimating more accurate credible intervals for a set of flood quantiles of interest. The method for extreme flood indirect estimation was applied to the American river catchment, at the Folsom dam, in the state of California, USA. Results show that most floods

  20. Evaluating the Capability of Grass Swale for the Rainfall Runoff Reduction from an Urban Parking Lot, Seoul, Korea

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Muhammad Shafique

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale detained a large amount of rainwater for a longer period of time and delayed peak discharge. In this field study, various real storm events were monitored and the research results were analyzed to evaluate the performance of grass swale for managing rainfall runoff in an urban area. From the analysis of field experiments, grass swale showed the significant rainfall runoff retention in different rain events. Grass swale markedly reduced total rainfall runoff volume and peak flow during the small storm events of intensity about 30 mm/h. From the analysis, on average rainfall runoff retention from the grass swale was found around 40 to 75% during the various small rain events. From the results, we can say that grass swale is a stormwater mitigation practice which can help avoid flash flooding problems in urban areas.

  1. Evaluating the Capability of Grass Swale for the Rainfall Runoff Reduction from an Urban Parking Lot, Seoul, Korea.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho; Kyung-Ho, Kwon

    2018-03-16

    This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale detained a large amount of rainwater for a longer period of time and delayed peak discharge. In this field study, various real storm events were monitored and the research results were analyzed to evaluate the performance of grass swale for managing rainfall runoff in an urban area. From the analysis of field experiments, grass swale showed the significant rainfall runoff retention in different rain events. Grass swale markedly reduced total rainfall runoff volume and peak flow during the small storm events of intensity about 30 mm/h. From the analysis, on average rainfall runoff retention from the grass swale was found around 40 to 75% during the various small rain events. From the results, we can say that grass swale is a stormwater mitigation practice which can help avoid flash flooding problems in urban areas.

  2. Evaluating the Capability of Grass Swale for the Rainfall Runoff Reduction from an Urban Parking Lot, Seoul, Korea

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shafique, Muhammad; Kim, Reeho; Kyung-Ho, Kwon

    2018-01-01

    This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale detained a large amount of rainwater for a longer period of time and delayed peak discharge. In this field study, various real storm events were monitored and the research results were analyzed to evaluate the performance of grass swale for managing rainfall runoff in an urban area. From the analysis of field experiments, grass swale showed the significant rainfall runoff retention in different rain events. Grass swale markedly reduced total rainfall runoff volume and peak flow during the small storm events of intensity about 30 mm/h. From the analysis, on average rainfall runoff retention from the grass swale was found around 40 to 75% during the various small rain events. From the results, we can say that grass swale is a stormwater mitigation practice which can help avoid flash flooding problems in urban areas. PMID:29547567

  3. Impact of the calibration period on the conceptual rainfall-runoff model parameter estimates

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todorovic, Andrijana; Plavsic, Jasna

    2015-04-01

    A conceptual rainfall-runoff model is defined by its structure and parameters, which are commonly inferred through model calibration. Parameter estimates depend on objective function(s), optimisation method, and calibration period. Model calibration over different periods may result in dissimilar parameter estimates, while model efficiency decreases outside calibration period. Problem of model (parameter) transferability, which conditions reliability of hydrologic simulations, has been investigated for decades. In this paper, dependence of the parameter estimates and model performance on calibration period is analysed. The main question that is addressed is: are there any changes in optimised parameters and model efficiency that can be linked to the changes in hydrologic or meteorological variables (flow, precipitation and temperature)? Conceptual, semi-distributed HBV-light model is calibrated over five-year periods shifted by a year (sliding time windows). Length of the calibration periods is selected to enable identification of all parameters. One water year of model warm-up precedes every simulation, which starts with the beginning of a water year. The model is calibrated using the built-in GAP optimisation algorithm. The objective function used for calibration is composed of Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient for flows and logarithms of flows, and volumetric error, all of which participate in the composite objective function with approximately equal weights. Same prior parameter ranges are used in all simulations. The model is calibrated against flows observed at the Slovac stream gauge on the Kolubara River in Serbia (records from 1954 to 2013). There are no trends in precipitation nor in flows, however, there is a statistically significant increasing trend in temperatures at this catchment. Parameter variability across the calibration periods is quantified in terms of standard deviations of normalised parameters, enabling detection of the most variable parameters

  4. Estimation of reservoir inflow in data scarce region by using Sacramento rainfall runoff model - A case study for Sittaung River Basin, Myanmar

    Science.gov (United States)

    Myo Lin, Nay; Rutten, Martine

    2017-04-01

    The Sittaung River is one of four major rivers in Myanmar. This river basin is developing fast and facing problems with flood, sedimentation, river bank erosion and salt intrusion. At present, more than 20 numbers of reservoirs have already been constructed for multiple purposes such as irrigation, domestic water supply, hydro-power generation, and flood control. The rainfall runoff models are required for the operational management of this reservoir system. In this study, the river basin is divided into (64) sub-catchments and the Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting (SAC-SMA) models are developed by using satellite rainfall and Geographic Information System (GIS) data. The SAC-SMA model has sixteen calibration parameters, and also uses a unit hydrograph for surface flow routing. The Sobek software package is used for SAC-SMA modelling and simulation of river system. The models are calibrated and tested by using observed discharge and water level data. The statistical results show that the model is applicable to use for data scarce region. Keywords: Sacramento, Sobek, rainfall runoff, reservoir

  5. Multi-Site Calibration of Linear Reservoir Based Geomorphologic Rainfall-Runoff Models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Bahram Saeidifarzad

    2014-09-01

    Full Text Available Multi-site optimization of two adapted event-based geomorphologic rainfall-runoff models was presented using Non-dominated Sorting Genetic Algorithm (NSGA-II method for the South Fork Eel River watershed, California. The first model was developed based on Unequal Cascade of Reservoirs (UECR and the second model was presented as a modified version of Geomorphological Unit Hydrograph based on Nash’s model (GUHN. Two calibration strategies were considered as semi-lumped and semi-distributed for imposing (or unimposing the geomorphology relations in the models. The results of models were compared with Nash’s model. Obtained results using the observed data of two stations in the multi-site optimization framework showed reasonable efficiency values in both the calibration and the verification steps. The outcomes also showed that semi-distributed calibration of the modified GUHN model slightly outperformed other models in both upstream and downstream stations during calibration. Both calibration strategies for the developed UECR model during the verification phase showed slightly better performance in the downstream station, but in the upstream station, the modified GUHN model in the semi-lumped strategy slightly outperformed the other models. The semi-lumped calibration strategy could lead to logical lag time parameters related to the basin geomorphology and may be more suitable for data-based statistical analyses of the rainfall-runoff process.

  6. Future climate scenarios and rainfall-runoff modelling in the Upper Gallego catchment (Spain)

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Buerger, C.M.; Kolditz, O.; Fowler, H.J.; Blenkinsop, S.

    2007-01-01

    Global climate change may have large impacts on water supplies, drought or flood frequencies and magnitudes in local and regional hydrologic systems. Water authorities therefore rely on computer models for quantitative impact prediction. In this study we present kernel-based learning machine river flow models for the Upper Gallego catchment of the Ebro basin. Different learning machines were calibrated using daily gauge data. The models posed two major challenges: (1) estimation of the rainfall-runoff transfer function from the available time series is complicated by anthropogenic regulation and mountainous terrain and (2) the river flow model is weak when only climate data are used, but additional antecedent flow data seemed to lead to delayed peak flow estimation. These types of models, together with the presented downscaled climate scenarios, can be used for climate change impact assessment in the Gallego, which is important for the future management of the system. - Future climate change and data-based rainfall-runoff predictions are presented for the Upper Gallego

  7. A geomorphology-based ANFIS model for multi-station modeling of rainfall-runoff process

    Science.gov (United States)

    Nourani, Vahid; Komasi, Mehdi

    2013-05-01

    This paper demonstrates the potential use of Artificial Intelligence (AI) techniques for predicting daily runoff at multiple gauging stations. Uncertainty and complexity of the rainfall-runoff process due to its variability in space and time in one hand and lack of historical data on the other hand, cause difficulties in the spatiotemporal modeling of the process. In this paper, an Integrated Geomorphological Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference System (IGANFIS) model conjugated with C-means clustering algorithm was used for rainfall-runoff modeling at multiple stations of the Eel River watershed, California. The proposed model could be used for predicting runoff in the stations with lack of data or any sub-basin within the watershed because of employing the spatial and temporal variables of the sub-basins as the model inputs. This ability of the integrated model for spatiotemporal modeling of the process was examined through the cross validation technique for a station. In this way, different ANFIS structures were trained using Sugeno algorithm in order to estimate daily discharge values at different stations. In order to improve the model efficiency, the input data were then classified into some clusters by the means of fuzzy C-means (FCMs) method. The goodness-of-fit measures support the gainful use of the IGANFIS and FCM methods in spatiotemporal modeling of hydrological processes.

  8. Hydrological control of large hurricane-induced lahars: evidence from rainfall-runoff modeling, seismic and video monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capra, Lucia; Coviello, Velio; Borselli, Lorenzo; Márquez-Ramírez, Víctor-Hugo; Arámbula-Mendoza, Raul

    2018-03-01

    The Volcán de Colima, one of the most active volcanoes in Mexico, is commonly affected by tropical rains related to hurricanes that form over the Pacific Ocean. In 2011, 2013 and 2015 hurricanes Jova, Manuel and Patricia, respectively, triggered tropical storms that deposited up to 400 mm of rain in 36 h, with maximum intensities of 50 mm h -1. The effects were devastating, with the formation of multiple lahars along La Lumbre and Montegrande ravines, which are the most active channels in sediment delivery on the south-southwest flank of the volcano. Deep erosion along the river channels and several marginal landslides were observed, and the arrival of block-rich flow fronts resulted in damages to bridges and paved roads in the distal reaches of the ravines. The temporal sequence of these flow events is reconstructed and analyzed using monitoring data (including video images, seismic records and rainfall data) with respect to the rainfall characteristics and the hydrologic response of the watersheds based on rainfall-runoff numerical simulation. For the studied events, lahars occurred 5-6 h after the onset of rainfall, lasted several hours and were characterized by several pulses with block-rich fronts and a maximum flow discharge of 900 m3 s -1. Rainfall-runoff simulations were performer using the SCS-curve number and the Green-Ampt infiltration models, providing a similar result in the detection of simulated maximum watershed peaks discharge. Results show different behavior for the arrival times of the first lahar pulses that correlate with the simulated catchment's peak discharge for La Lumbre ravine and with the peaks in rainfall intensity for Montegrande ravine. This different behavior is related to the area and shape of the two watersheds. Nevertheless, in all analyzed cases, the largest lahar pulse always corresponds with the last one and correlates with the simulated maximum peak discharge of these catchments. Data presented here show that flow pulses

  9. Challenges to Rainfall-Runoff and Transit Time Distribution Modeling Within the Southeastern Coastal Plain, USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Decker, P.; Cohen, M. J.; Jawitz, J. W.

    2017-12-01

    Previous hydrologic studies primarily focus on processes related to montane catchments with significant runoff ratios, low evapotranspiration rates, and reasonably short travel times. There is a significant lack of research for hydrologic processes occurring within the United States Southeastern Coastal Plain landscape where low-relief and high rates of evapotranspiration impact water fluxes. Hydrologic modeling efforts within this region may elucidate possible interactions and timescales of solute travel where much of the landscape is managed for agricultural crops, namely plantation forestry. A long-term paired watershed study carried out in northern Florida monitored two second-order blackwater streams for five years. Rainfall-runoff models for both catchments were created using daily discharge, precipitation, and modeled evapotranspiration as input parameters. Best fit occurred (NSE = 0.8) when the catchments were modeled as two-storage (shallow and deep) reservoirs in parallel and overland flow was allowed to contribute to streamflow in periods were shallow groundwater storage was at capacity. In addition, streamflow and rainfall chloride concentrations were used to model in-variable transit time distributions using spectral methods. In both catchments this transit time was unresolvable because output spectral power exceeded input spectral power, a result assumed to be driven by the evaporative demand of the region. A modeled chloride time series from random input concentration and modeled output through the rainfall-runoff model was used to alter the evaporation ratio. Once evaporation rates equaled known rates found in cool, high-relief catchments, spectral analysis illustrated higher input spectral power and therefore resolvable transit times. Findings from this study illustrate significant effects from evaporation within the catchment - often exceeding the signal from the background catchment process itself. Calculations illustrate a proposed mean transit

  10. Beyond the SCS-CN method: A theoretical framework for spatially lumped rainfall-runoff response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.

    2016-06-01

    Since its introduction in 1954, the Soil Conservation Service curve number (SCS-CN) method has become the standard tool, in practice, for estimating an event-based rainfall-runoff response. However, because of its empirical origins, the SCS-CN method is restricted to certain geographic regions and land use types. Moreover, it does not describe the spatial variability of runoff. To move beyond these limitations, we present a new theoretical framework for spatially lumped, event-based rainfall-runoff modeling. In this framework, we describe the spatially lumped runoff model as a point description of runoff that is upscaled to a watershed area based on probability distributions that are representative of watershed heterogeneities. The framework accommodates different runoff concepts and distributions of heterogeneities, and in doing so, it provides an implicit spatial description of runoff variability. Heterogeneity in storage capacity and soil moisture are the basis for upscaling a point runoff response and linking ecohydrological processes to runoff modeling. For the framework, we consider two different runoff responses for fractions of the watershed area: "prethreshold" and "threshold-excess" runoff. These occur before and after infiltration exceeds a storage capacity threshold. Our application of the framework results in a new model (called SCS-CNx) that extends the SCS-CN method with the prethreshold and threshold-excess runoff mechanisms and an implicit spatial description of runoff. We show proof of concept in four forested watersheds and further that the resulting model may better represent geographic regions and site types that previously have been beyond the scope of the traditional SCS-CN method.

  11. Rainfall-runoff model for prediction of waterborne viral contamination in a small river catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gelati, E.; Dommar, C.; Lowe, R.; Polcher, J.; Rodó, X.

    2013-12-01

    We present a lumped rainfall-runoff model aimed at providing useful information for the prediction of waterborne viral contamination in small rivers. Viral contamination of water bodies may occur because of the discharge of sewage effluents and of surface runoff over areas affected by animal waste loads. Surface runoff is caused by precipitation that cannot infiltrate due to its intensity and to antecedent soil water content. It may transport animal feces to adjacent water bodies and cause viral contamination. We model streamflow by separating it into two components: subsurface flow, which is produced by infiltrated precipitation; and surface runoff. The model estimates infiltrated and non-infiltrated precipitation and uses impulse-response functions to compute the corresponding fractions of streamflow. The developed methodologies are applied to the Glafkos river, whose catchment extends for 102 km2 and includes the city of Patra. Streamflow and precipitation observations are available at a daily time resolution. Waterborne virus concentration measurements were performed approximately every second week from the beginning of 2011 to mid 2012. Samples were taken at several locations: in river water upstream of Patras and in the urban area; in sea water at the river outlet and approximately 2 km south-west of Patras; in sewage effluents before and after treatment. The rainfall-runoff model was calibrated and validated using observed streamflow and precipitation data. The model contribution to waterborne viral contamination prediction was benchmarked by analyzing the virus concentration measurements together with the estimated surface runoff values. The presented methodology may be a first step towards the development of waterborne viral contamination alert systems. Predicting viral contamination of water bodies would benefit sectors such as water supply and tourism.

  12. A systematic assessment of watershed-scale nonpoint source pollution during rainfall-runoff events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qiu, Jiali; Shen, Zhenyao; Wei, Guoyuan; Wang, Guobo; Xie, Hui; Lv, Guanping

    2018-03-01

    The assessment of peak flow rate, total runoff volume, and pollutant loads during rainfall process are very important for the watershed management and the ecological restoration of aquatic environment. Real-time measurements of rainfall-runoff and pollutant loads are always the most reliable approach but are difficult to carry out at all desired location in the watersheds considering the large consumption of material and financial resources. An integrated environmental modeling approach for the estimation of flash streamflow that combines the various hydrological and quality processes during rainstorms within the agricultural watersheds is essential to develop targeted management strategies for the endangered drinking water. This study applied the Hydrological Simulation Program-Fortran (HSPF) to simulate the spatial and temporal variation in hydrological processes and pollutant transport processes during rainstorm events in the Miyun Reservoir watershed, a drinking water resource area in Beijing. The model performance indicators ensured the acceptable applicability of the HSPF model to simulate flow and pollutant loads in the studied watershed and to establish a relationship between land use and the parameter values. The proportion of soil and land use was then identified as the influencing factors of the pollution intensities. The results indicated that the flush concentrations were much higher than those observed during normal flow periods and considerably exceeded the limits of Class III Environmental Quality Standards for Surface Water (GB3838-2002) for the secondary protection zones of the drinking water resource in China. Agricultural land and leached cinnamon soils were identified as the key sources of sediment, nutrients, and fecal coliforms. Precipitation volume was identified as a driving factor that determined the amount of runoff and pollutant loads during rainfall processes. These results are useful to improve the streamflow predictions, provide

  13. Increasing trends in rainfall-runoff erosivity in the Source Region of the Three Rivers, 1961-2012.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Yousheng; Cheng, Congcong; Xie, Yun; Liu, Baoyuan; Yin, Shuiqing; Liu, Yingna; Hao, Yanfang

    2017-08-15

    As the head source of the two longest rivers in China and the longest river in Southeast Asia, the East Qinghai-Tibetan Plateau (QTP) is experiencing increasing thaw snowmelt and more heavy precipitation events under global warming, which might lead to soil erosion risk. To understand the potential driving force of soil erosion and its relationship with precipitation in the context of climate change, this study analyzed long-term variations in annual rainfall-runoff erosivity, a climatic index of soil erosion, by using the Mann-Kendall statistical test and Theil and Sen's approach in the Source Region of the Three Rivers during 1961-2012. The results showed the followings: (i) increasing annual rainfall-runoff erosivity was observed over the past 52years, with a mean relative trend index (RT 1 ) value of 12.1%. The increasing trend was more obvious for the latest two decades: RT 1 was nearly three times larger than that over the entire period; (ii) more precipitation events and a higher precipitation amount were the major forces for the increasing rainfall-runoff erosivity; (iii) similar rising trends in sediment yields, which corresponded to rainfall-runoff erosivity under slightly increasing vegetation coverage in the study area, implied a large contribution of rainfall-runoff erosivity to the increasing sediment yields; and (iv) high warming rates increased the risk of soil destruction, soil erosion and sediment yields. Conservation measures, such as enclosing grassland, returning grazing land to grassland and rotation grazing since the 1980s, have maintained vegetation coverage and should be continued and strengthened. Copyright © 2017 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  14. Comparison of different multi-objective calibration criteria using a conceptual rainfall-runoff model of flood events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    R. Moussa

    2009-04-01

    Full Text Available A conceptual lumped rainfall-runoff flood event model was developed and applied on the Gardon catchment located in Southern France and various single-objective and multi-objective functions were used for its calibration. The model was calibrated on 15 events and validated on 14 others. The results of both the calibration and validation phases are compared on the basis of their performance with regards to six criteria, three global criteria and three relative criteria representing volume, peakflow, and the root mean square error. The first type of criteria gives more weight to large events whereas the second considers all events to be of equal weight. The results show that the calibrated parameter values are dependent on the type of criteria used. Significant trade-offs are observed between the different objectives: no unique set of parameters is able to satisfy all objectives simultaneously. Instead, the solution to the calibration problem is given by a set of Pareto optimal solutions. From this set of optimal solutions, a balanced aggregated objective function is proposed, as a compromise between up to three objective functions. The single-objective and multi-objective calibration strategies are compared both in terms of parameter variation bounds and simulation quality. The results of this study indicate that two well chosen and non-redundant objective functions are sufficient to calibrate the model and that the use of three objective functions does not necessarily yield different results. The problems of non-uniqueness in model calibration, and the choice of the adequate objective functions for flood event models, emphasise the importance of the modeller's intervention. The recent advances in automatic optimisation techniques do not minimise the user's responsibility, who has to choose multiple criteria based on the aims of the study, his appreciation on the errors induced by data and model structure and his knowledge of the

  15. Application and comparison of the SCS-CN-based rainfall-runoff model in meso-scale watershed and field scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Luo, L.; Wang, Z.

    2010-12-01

    Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) based hydrologic model, has widely been used for agricultural watersheds in recent years. However, there will be relative error when applying it due to differentiation of geographical and climatological conditions. This paper introduces a more adaptable and propagable model based on the modified SCS-CN method, which specializes into two different scale cases of research regions. Combining the typical conditions of the Zhanghe irrigation district in southern part of China, such as hydrometeorologic conditions and surface conditions, SCS-CN based models were established. The Xinbu-Qiao River basin (area =1207 km2) and the Tuanlin runoff test area (area =2.87 km2)were taken as the study areas of basin scale and field scale in Zhanghe irrigation district. Applications were extended from ordinary meso-scale watershed to field scale in Zhanghe paddy field-dominated irrigated . Based on actual measurement data of land use, soil classification, hydrology and meteorology, quantitative evaluation and modifications for two coefficients, i.e. preceding loss and runoff curve, were proposed with corresponding models, table of CN values for different landuse and AMC(antecedent moisture condition) grading standard fitting for research cases were proposed. The simulation precision was increased by putting forward a 12h unit hydrograph of the field area, and 12h unit hydrograph were simplified. Comparison between different scales show that it’s more effectively to use SCS-CN model on field scale after parameters calibrated in basin scale These results can help discovering the rainfall-runoff rule in the district. Differences of established SCS-CN model's parameters between the two study regions are also considered. Varied forms of landuse and impacts of human activities were the important factors which can impact the rainfall-runoff relations in Zhanghe irrigation district.

  16. Curve Number Estimation for a Small Urban Catchment from Recorded Rainfall-Runoff Events

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Banasik Kazimierz

    2014-12-01

    Full Text Available Runoff estimation is a key component in various hydrological considerations. Estimation of storm runoff is especially important for the effective design of hydraulic and road structures, for the flood flow management, as well as for the analysis of land use changes, i.e. urbanization or low impact development of urban areas. The curve number (CN method, developed by Soil Conservation Service (SCS of the U.S. Department of Agriculture for predicting the flood runoff depth from ungauged catchments, has been in continuous use for ca. 60 years. This method has not been extensively tested in Poland, especially in small urban catchments, because of lack of data. In this study, 39 rainfall-runoff events, collected during four years (2009–2012 in a small (A=28.7 km2, urban catchment of Służew Creek in southwest part of Warsaw were used, with the aim of determining the CNs and to check its applicability to ungauged urban areas. The parameters CN, estimated empirically, vary from 65.1 to 95.0, decreasing with rainfall size and, when sorted rainfall and runoff separately, reaching the value from 67 to 74 for large rainfall events.

  17. Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMC) from rainfall runoff on an urban highway

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Lee, Ju Young; Kim, Hyoungjun; Kim, Youngjin; Han, Moo Young

    2011-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to investigate the characterization of the event mean concentration (EMC) of runoff during heavy precipitation events on highways. Highway runoff quality data were collected from the 7th highway, in South Korea during 2007-2009. The samples were analyzed for runoff quantity and quality parameters such as COD cr , TSS, TPHs, TKN, NO 3 , TP, PO 4 and six heavy metals, e.g., As, Cu, Cd, Ni, Pb and Zn. Analysis of resulting hydrographs and pollutant graphs indicates that the peak of the pollutant concentrations in runoff occurs 20 min after the first rainfall runoff occurrence. The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and the rainfall intensity. The results of this study can be used as a reference for water quality management of urban highways. - Research highlights: → Field test on urban highway were performed to 50 of 100 storm events for 3 years. → The peak pollutant concentrations occurs 20 min after the first runoff. → The first flush effect depends on the preceding dry period and rainfall intensity. → Relationship between runoff and event mean concentration for SS and COD. → A crest of the EMC by 70-80 m 3 /event and decreasing EMC after 70-80 m 3 /event. - This study investigate the characterization of the EMC of runoff during rainfall event on highway.

  18. Sensitivity analysis of Takagi-Sugeno-Kang rainfall-runoff fuzzy models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. P. Jacquin

    2009-01-01

    Full Text Available This paper is concerned with the sensitivity analysis of the model parameters of the Takagi-Sugeno-Kang fuzzy rainfall-runoff models previously developed by the authors. These models are classified in two types of fuzzy models, where the first type is intended to account for the effect of changes in catchment wetness and the second type incorporates seasonality as a source of non-linearity. The sensitivity analysis is performed using two global sensitivity analysis methods, namely Regional Sensitivity Analysis and Sobol's variance decomposition. The data of six catchments from different geographical locations and sizes are used in the sensitivity analysis. The sensitivity of the model parameters is analysed in terms of several measures of goodness of fit, assessing the model performance from different points of view. These measures include the Nash-Sutcliffe criteria, volumetric errors and peak errors. The results show that the sensitivity of the model parameters depends on both the catchment type and the measure used to assess the model performance.

  19. Impacts of water quality variation and rainfall runoff on Jinpen Reservoir, in Northwest China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Zi-zhen Zhou

    2015-10-01

    Full Text Available The seasonal variation characteristics of the water quality of the Jinpen Reservoir and the impacts of rainfall runoff on the reservoir were investigated. Water quality monitoring results indicated that, during the stable stratification period, the maximum concentrations of total nitrogen, total phosphorus, ammonia nitrogen, total organic carbon, iron ion, and manganese ion in the water at the reservoir bottom on September 6 reached 2.5 mg/L, 0.12 mg/L, 0.58 mg/L, 3.2 mg/L, 0.97 mg/L, and 0.32 mg/L, respectively. Only heavy storm runoff can affect the main reservoir and cause the water quality to seriously deteriorate. During heavy storms, the stratification of the reservoir was destroyed, and the reservoir water quality consequently deteriorated due to the high-turbidity particulate phosphorus and organic matter in runoff. The turbidity and concentrations of total phosphorus and total organic carbon in the main reservoir increased to 265 NTU, 0.224 mg/L, and 3.9 mg/L, respectively. Potential methods of dealing with the water problems in the Jinpen Reservoir are proposed. Both in stratification and in storm periods, the use of measures such as adjusting intake height, storing clean water, and releasing turbid flow can be helpful to safeguarding the quality of water supplied to the water treatment plants.

  20. Modeling urban storm rainfall runoff from diverse underlying surfaces and application for control design in Beijing.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ouyang, Wei; Guo, Bobo; Hao, Fanghua; Huang, Haobo; Li, Junqi; Gong, Yongwei

    2012-12-30

    Managing storm rainfall runoff is paramount in semi-arid regions with urban development. In Beijing, pollution prevention in urban storm runoff and storm water utilization has been identified as the primary strategy for urban water management. In this paper, we sampled runoff during storm rainfall events and analyzed the concentration of chemical oxygen demand (COD), total suspended solids (TSS) and total phosphorus (TP) in the runoff. Furthermore, the first flush effect of storm rainfall from diverse underlying surfaces was also analyzed. With the Storm Water Management Model (SWMM), the different impervious rates of underlying surfaces during the storm runoff process were expressed. The removal rates of three typical pollutants and their interactions with precipitation and underlying surfaces were identified. From these rates, the scenarios regarding the urban storm runoff pollution loading from different designs of underlying previous rates were assessed with the SWMM. First flush effect analysis showed that the first 20% of the storm runoff should be discarded, which can help in utilizing the storm water resource. The results of this study suggest that the SWMM can express in detail the storm water pollution patterns from diverse underlying surfaces in Beijing, which significantly affected water quality. The scenario analysis demonstrated that impervious rate adjustment has the potential to reduce runoff peak and decrease pollution loading. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  1. An investigation of the effect of hysteresis in a simple rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Flynn, D. P.; O'Kane, J. P.

    2009-04-01

    Multiphase porous media such as soils are known to exhibit hysteresis, e.g. in soils there is a strong hysteretic relationship between the moisture content and the matric potential and to date the Preisach model has been successful in modelling this relationship. Subsequently ODEs with Preisach hysteresis have been developed, such as a hysteretic version of Darcy's law and a hysteretic version of the linear reservoir known as the Preisach reservoir. In this paper we combine the above Hysteretic Differential Equations (HDEs) with three linear reservoirs so as to develop a simple rainfall runoff model. The model can be represented by a block diagram: Rainfall q(t) enters the soil component and either infiltrates and/or runs off when it exceeds the maximum rate of infiltration. The runoff part is fed into two linear reservoirs in series. Next, the drainage from the soil to groundwater is represented by a single linear reservoir, where the output from the soil becomes the input to the ground reservoir and vice-versa for capillary rise. Finally the groundwater and surface runoff are combined at some point and contribute to the total outflow from the catchment. Finally we investigate the effects of hysteresis in this system and compare it to the non-hysteretic case.

  2. The last developments of the airGR R-package, an open source software for rainfall-runoff modelling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Thirel, Guillaume; Delaigue, Olivier; Coron, Laurent; Perrin, Charles; Andréassian, Vazken

    2017-04-01

    Lumped hydrological models are useful and convenient tools for research, engineering and educational purposes. They propose catchment-scale representations of the precipitation-discharge relationship. Thanks to their limited data requirements, they can be easily implemented and run. With such models, it is possible to simulate a number of hydrological key processes over the catchment with limited structural and parametric complexity, typically evapotranspiration, runoff, underground losses, etc. The Hydrology Group at Irstea (Antony) has been developing a suite of rainfall-runoff models over the past 30 years with the main objectives of designing models as efficient as possible in terms of streamflow simulation, applicable to a wide range of catchments and having low data requirements. This resulted in a suite of models running at different time steps (from hourly to annual) applicable for various issues including water balance estimation, forecasting, simulation of impacts and scenario testing. Recently, Irstea has developed an easy-to-use R-package (R Core Team, 2016), called airGR (Coron et al., 2016, 2017), to make these models widely available. It includes: - the water balance annual GR1A model, - the monthly GR2M model, - three versions of the daily model, namely GR4J, GR5J and GR6J, - the hourly GR4H model, - a degree-day snow model CemaNeige. The airGR package has been designed to facilitate the use by non-expert users and allow the addition of evaluation criteria, models or calibration algorithm selected by the end-user. Each model core is coded in FORTRAN to ensure low computational time. The other package functions (i.e. mainly the calibration algorithm and the efficiency criteria) are coded in R. The package is also used for educational purposes. It allows for convenient implementation of model inter-comparisons and large sample hydrology experiments. The airGR package undergoes continuous developments for improving the efficiency, computational time

  3. Integration of Spatially Hydrological Modelling on Bentong Catchment, Pahang, Peninsular Malaysia Using Distributed GIS-based Rainfall Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rosli, M.H.

    2017-07-01

    Full Text Available With the advance of GIS technology, hydrology model can simulated at catchment wide scale. The objective is to integrate National Resource Conservation Service (NRCS Curve Number (CN with kinematic wave and manning’s equation using GIS to develop a simple GIS-based distributed model to simulate rainfall runoff in Bentong catchment. Model was built using Spatial Distributed Direct Hydrograph (SDDH concept and applying the time area (TA approach in presenting the predicted discharge hydrograph. The effective precipitation estimation was first calculated using the NRCS CN method. Then, the core maps that consists of digital elevation model (DEM, soil and land use map in grid. DEM was used to derive slope, flow direction and flow accumulation while soil and land use map used to derive roughness coefficient and CN. The overland velocity and channel velocity estimation derived from combination of kinematic wave theory with Manning’s equation. To capture the time frame, the travel time map was divided into isochrones in order to generate the TA histogram and finally. The creation of SDDH using the TA histogram which will lead to the estimation of travel time for the catchment. Simulated hydrograph was plotted together with the observed discharge for comparison. Six storm events used for model performance evaluation using statistical measure such as Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency (NSE, percent bias (PBIAS and coefficient of determination (R2;. SDDH model performed quite well as NSE gave result ranging from 0.55 to 0.68 with mean of 0.6. PBIAS indicate that the model slightly over predicted compared to observed hydrograph with result ranges from -46.71 (the most over predicted to +4.83 (the most under predicted with average of -20.73%. R2; ranges between 0.55 to 0.82 with mean of 0.67. When comparing the time to peak, (tp, min, and peak discharge, (pd, m3/s, results gave NSEtp 0.82, PBIAStp 0.65, R2tp 0.32, NSEpd 0.95, PBIASpd 14.49 and R2pd 0

  4. Subgrid Parameterization of the Soil Moisture Storage Capacity for a Distributed Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Weijian Guo

    2015-05-01

    Full Text Available Spatial variability plays an important role in nonlinear hydrologic processes. Due to the limitation of computational efficiency and data resolution, subgrid variability is usually assumed to be uniform for most grid-based rainfall-runoff models, which leads to the scale-dependence of model performances. In this paper, the scale effect on the Grid-Xinanjiang model was examined. The bias of the estimation of precipitation, runoff, evapotranspiration and soil moisture at the different grid scales, along with the scale-dependence of the effective parameters, highlights the importance of well representing the subgrid variability. This paper presents a subgrid parameterization method to incorporate the subgrid variability of the soil storage capacity, which is a key variable that controls runoff generation and partitioning in the Grid-Xinanjiang model. In light of the similar spatial pattern and physical basis, the soil storage capacity is correlated with the topographic index, whose spatial distribution can more readily be measured. A beta distribution is introduced to represent the spatial distribution of the soil storage capacity within the grid. The results derived from the Yanduhe Basin show that the proposed subgrid parameterization method can effectively correct the watershed soil storage capacity curve. Compared to the original Grid-Xinanjiang model, the model performances are quite consistent at the different grid scales when the subgrid variability is incorporated. This subgrid parameterization method reduces the recalibration necessity when the Digital Elevation Model (DEM resolution is changed. Moreover, it improves the potential for the application of the distributed model in the ungauged basin.

  5. [Output characteristics of rainfall runoff phosphorus pollution from a typical small watershed in Yimeng mountainous area].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yu, Xing-xiu; Li, Zhen-wei; Liu, Qian-jin; Jing, Guang-hua

    2012-08-01

    Relationships between phosphorus pollutant concentrations and precipitation-runoff were analyzed by monitoring pollutant losses at outlets of the Menglianggu watershed in 2010. A typical small watershed was selected to examine the runoff and quality parameters such as total phosphorus (TP), particle phosphorus (PP), dissolve phosphorus (DP) and dissolve inorganic phosphorus (DIP) in rainfall-runoff of 10 rainfall events. Precipitation was above 2 mm for all the 10 rainfall events. The results showed that the peak of phosphorus concentrations occurred before the peak of water flows, whereas change processes of the phosphorus fluxes were consistent with that of the water flows and the phosphorus flux also have a strong linear relationship with the water flows. The minimums of the phosphorus concentrations in every 10 natural rainfall events have small differences with each other, but the maximum and EMCs of the phosphorus concentrations have significant differences with each rainfall event. This was mainly influenced by the precipitation, maximum rainfall intensity and mean rainfall intensity (EMCs) and was less influenced by rainfall duration. DP and TP were mainly composed of DIP and PP, respectively. There were no significant correlations between DIP/DP dynamic changes and rainfall characteristics, whereas significant correlations between PP/TP dynamic changes and maximum rainfall intensity were detected. The production of DIP, DP, AND TP were mainly influenced by the direct runoff (DR) and base flow (BF). The EMCs of DIP, DP, TP and the variations of DIP/DP were all found to have significant polynomial relationships with DR/TR., but the dynamic changes of PP/ TP and the EMCS of PP were less influenced by the DR/TR.

  6. EVALUATION OF RAINFALL-RUNOFF EROSIVITY FACTOR FOR CAMERON HIGHLAND, PAHANG, MALAYSIA

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Abdulkadir Taofeeq Sholagberu

    2016-07-01

    Full Text Available Rainfall-runoff is the active agent of soil erosion which often resulted in land degradation and water quality deterioration. Its aggressiveness to induce erosion is usually termed as rainfall erosivity index or factor (R. R-factor is one of the factors to be parameterized in the evaluation of soil loss using the Universal Soil Loss Equation and its reversed versions (USLE/RUSLE. The computation of accurate R-factor for a particular watershed requires high temporal resolution rainfall (pluviograph data with less than 30-minutes intensities for at least 20 yrs, which is available only in a few regions of the world. As a result, various simplified models have been proposed by researchers to evaluate R-factor using readily available daily, monthly or annual precipitation data. This study is thus aimed at estimating R-factor and to establish an approximate relationship between R-factor and rainfall for subsequent usage in the estimation of soil loss in Cameron highlands watershed. The results of the analysis showed that the least and peak (critical R-factors occurred in the months of January and April with 660.82 and 2399.18 MJ mm ha-1 h-1year-1 respectively. Also, it was observed that erosivity power starts to increase from the month of January through April before started falling in the month of July. The monthly and annual peaks (critical periods may be attributed to increased rainfall amount due to climate change which in turn resulted to increased aggressiveness of rains to cause erosion in the study area. The correlation coefficient of 0.985 showed that there was a strong relationship rainfall and R-factor.

  7. Bayesian uncertainty assessment of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins for conceptual rainfall-runoff models

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. E. Sikorska

    2012-04-01

    Full Text Available Urbanization and the resulting land-use change strongly affect the water cycle and runoff-processes in watersheds. Unfortunately, small urban watersheds, which are most affected by urban sprawl, are mostly ungauged. This makes it intrinsically difficult to assess the consequences of urbanization. Most of all, it is unclear how to reliably assess the predictive uncertainty given the structural deficits of the applied models. In this study, we therefore investigate the uncertainty of flood predictions in ungauged urban basins from structurally uncertain rainfall-runoff models. To this end, we suggest a procedure to explicitly account for input uncertainty and model structure deficits using Bayesian statistics with a continuous-time autoregressive error model. In addition, we propose a concise procedure to derive prior parameter distributions from base data and successfully apply the methodology to an urban catchment in Warsaw, Poland. Based on our results, we are able to demonstrate that the autoregressive error model greatly helps to meet the statistical assumptions and to compute reliable prediction intervals. In our study, we found that predicted peak flows were up to 7 times higher than observations. This was reduced to 5 times with Bayesian updating, using only few discharge measurements. In addition, our analysis suggests that imprecise rainfall information and model structure deficits contribute mostly to the total prediction uncertainty. In the future, flood predictions in ungauged basins will become more important due to ongoing urbanization as well as anthropogenic and climatic changes. Thus, providing reliable measures of uncertainty is crucial to support decision making.

  8. Continuous state-space representation of a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model: a case study with the GR4 model using state-space GR4 (version 1.0)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Santos, Léonard; Thirel, Guillaume; Perrin, Charles

    2018-04-01

    In many conceptual rainfall-runoff models, the water balance differential equations are not explicitly formulated. These differential equations are solved sequentially by splitting the equations into terms that can be solved analytically with a technique called operator splitting. As a result, only the solutions of the split equations are used to present the different models. This article provides a methodology to make the governing water balance equations of a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model explicit and to solve them continuously. This is done by setting up a comprehensive state-space representation of the model. By representing it in this way, the operator splitting, which makes the structural analysis of the model more complex, could be removed. In this state-space representation, the lag functions (unit hydrographs), which are frequent in rainfall-runoff models and make the resolution of the representation difficult, are first replaced by a so-called Nash cascade and then solved with a robust numerical integration technique. To illustrate this methodology, the GR4J model is taken as an example. The substitution of the unit hydrographs with a Nash cascade, even if it modifies the model behaviour when solved using operator splitting, does not modify it when the state-space representation is solved using an implicit integration technique. Indeed, the flow time series simulated by the new representation of the model are very similar to those simulated by the classic model. The use of a robust numerical technique that approximates a continuous-time model also improves the lag parameter consistency across time steps and provides a more time-consistent model with time-independent parameters.

  9. Comparison of ensemble post-processing approaches, based on empirical and dynamical error modelisation of rainfall-runoff model forecasts

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chardon, J.; Mathevet, T.; Le Lay, M.; Gailhard, J.

    2012-04-01

    dynamic and processes, i. e. sample heterogeneity. For a same streamflow range corresponds different processes such as rising limbs or recession, where uncertainties are different. The dynamical approach improves reliability, skills and sharpness of forecasts and globally reduces confidence intervals width. When compared in details, the dynamical approach allows a noticeable reduction of confidence intervals during recessions where uncertainty is relatively lower and a slight increase of confidence intervals during rising limbs or snowmelt where uncertainty is greater. The dynamic approach, validated by forecaster's experience that considered the empirical approach not discriminative enough, improved forecaster's confidence and communication of uncertainties. Montanari, A. and Brath, A., (2004). A stochastic approach for assessing the uncertainty of rainfall-runoff simulations. Water Resources Research, 40, W01106, doi:10.1029/2003WR002540. Schaefli, B., Balin Talamba, D. and Musy, A., (2007). Quantifying hydrological modeling errors through a mixture of normal distributions. Journal of Hydrology, 332, 303-315.

  10. Modelling rainfall runoff relations using HEC-HMS in a semi-arid region: Case study in Ain Sefra watershed, Ksour Mountains (SW Algeria

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Derdour Abdessamed

    2018-03-01

    Full Text Available Ain Sefra is one of the Algerian cities that had been experienced several devastating floods during the past 100 years. The purpose of this study is to simulate runoff in the semi-arid region of Ain Sefra watershed through the employing of the Hydrologic Engineering Center – Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS. In this paper, the frequency storm is used for the meteorological model, the Soil Conservation Service – curve number (SCS-CN is selected to calculate the loss rate and Soil Conservation Service unit hydrograph method have been applied to simulate the runoff rate. After calibration and validation, the simulated peak discharges were very close with observed values. The Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient was 0.95, indicates that the hydrological modeling results are satisfactory and accepted for simulation of rainfall-runoff. The peak discharges obtained for the 10, 50, 100 and 1000 year storms are respectively 425.8, 750.5, 904.3 and 1328.3 m3∙s−1.

  11. SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds. The two-CN system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soulis, K. X.; Valiantzas, J. D.

    2011-10-01

    The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN values can be estimated by being selected from tables. However, it is more accurate to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data (assumed available) in a watershed. Previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. They suggested the determination of a single asymptotic CN value observed for very high rainfall depths to characterize the watersheds' runoff response. In this paper, the novel hypothesis that the observed correlation between the calculated CN value and the rainfall depth in a watershed reflects the effect of the inevitable presence of soil-cover complex spatial variability along watersheds is being tested. Based on this hypothesis, the simplified concept of a two-CN heterogeneous system is introduced to model the observed CN-rainfall variation by reducing the CN spatial variability into two classes. The behavior of the CN-rainfall function produced by the proposed two-CN system concept is approached theoretically, it is analyzed systematically, and it is found to be similar to the variation observed in natural watersheds. Synthetic data tests, natural watersheds examples, and detailed study of two natural experimental watersheds with known spatial heterogeneity characteristics were used to evaluate the method. The results indicate that the determination of CN values from rainfall runoff data using the proposed two-CN system approach provides reasonable accuracy and it over performs the previous original method based on the determination of a single asymptotic CN value. Although the suggested method increases the number of unknown parameters to three (instead of one), a clear physical reasoning for them is presented.

  12. SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds - the two-CN system approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Soulis, K. X.; Valiantzas, J. D.

    2012-03-01

    The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN parameter values corresponding to various soil, land cover, and land management conditions can be selected from tables, but it is preferable to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data if available. However, previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. Hence, they suggested the determination of a single asymptotic CN value observed for very high rainfall depths to characterize the watersheds' runoff response. In this paper, the hypothesis that the observed correlation between the calculated CN value and the rainfall depth in a watershed reflects the effect of soils and land cover spatial variability on its hydrologic response is being tested. Based on this hypothesis, the simplified concept of a two-CN heterogeneous system is introduced to model the observed CN-rainfall variation by reducing the CN spatial variability into two classes. The behaviour of the CN-rainfall function produced by the simplified two-CN system is approached theoretically, it is analysed systematically, and it is found to be similar to the variation observed in natural watersheds. Synthetic data tests, natural watersheds examples, and detailed study of two natural experimental watersheds with known spatial heterogeneity characteristics were used to evaluate the method. The results indicate that the determination of CN values from rainfall runoff data using the proposed two-CN system approach provides reasonable accuracy and it over performs the previous methods based on the determination of a single asymptotic CN value. Although the suggested method increases the number of unknown parameters to three (instead of one), a clear physical reasoning for them is presented.

  13. SCS-CN parameter determination using rainfall-runoff data in heterogeneous watersheds – the two-CN system approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. D. Valiantzas

    2012-03-01

    Full Text Available The Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN approach is widely used as a simple method for predicting direct runoff volume for a given rainfall event. The CN parameter values corresponding to various soil, land cover, and land management conditions can be selected from tables, but it is preferable to estimate the CN value from measured rainfall-runoff data if available. However, previous researchers indicated that the CN values calculated from measured rainfall-runoff data vary systematically with the rainfall depth. Hence, they suggested the determination of a single asymptotic CN value observed for very high rainfall depths to characterize the watersheds' runoff response. In this paper, the hypothesis that the observed correlation between the calculated CN value and the rainfall depth in a watershed reflects the effect of soils and land cover spatial variability on its hydrologic response is being tested. Based on this hypothesis, the simplified concept of a two-CN heterogeneous system is introduced to model the observed CN-rainfall variation by reducing the CN spatial variability into two classes. The behaviour of the CN-rainfall function produced by the simplified two-CN system is approached theoretically, it is analysed systematically, and it is found to be similar to the variation observed in natural watersheds. Synthetic data tests, natural watersheds examples, and detailed study of two natural experimental watersheds with known spatial heterogeneity characteristics were used to evaluate the method. The results indicate that the determination of CN values from rainfall runoff data using the proposed two-CN system approach provides reasonable accuracy and it over performs the previous methods based on the determination of a single asymptotic CN value. Although the suggested method increases the number of unknown parameters to three (instead of one, a clear physical reasoning for them is presented.

  14. Catchment area-based evaluation of the AMC-dependent SCS-CN-based rainfall-runoff models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mishra, S. K.; Jain, M. K.; Pandey, R. P.; Singh, V. P.

    2005-09-01

    Using a large set of rainfall-runoff data from 234 watersheds in the USA, a catchment area-based evaluation of the modified version of the Mishra and Singh (2002a) model was performed. The model is based on the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number (SCS-CN) methodology and incorporates the antecedent moisture in computation of direct surface runoff. Comparison with the existing SCS-CN method showed that the modified version performed better than did the existing one on the data of all seven area-based groups of watersheds ranging from 0.01 to 310.3 km2.

  15. Evaluating the Capability of Grass Swale for the Rainfall Runoff Reduction from an Urban Parking Lot, Seoul, Korea

    OpenAIRE

    Muhammad Shafique; Reeho Kim; Kwon Kyung-Ho

    2018-01-01

    This field study elaborates the role of grass swale in the management of stormwater in an urban parking lot. Grass swale was constructed by using different vegetations and local soil media in the parking lot of Mapu-gu Seoul, Korea. In this study, rainfall runoff was first retained in soil and the vegetation layers of the grass swale, and then infiltrated rainwater was collected with the help of underground perforated pipe, and passed to an underground storage trench. In this way, grass swale...

  16. How much complexity is warranted in a rainfall-runoff model? Findings obtained from symbolic regression, using Eureqa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahart, R. J.; Beriro, D. J.

    2012-04-01

    The information content in a rainfall-runoff record is sufficient to support models of only very limited complexity (Jakeman and Hornberger, 1993). This begs the question of what limits should observed data place on the allowable complexity of rainfall-runoff models? Eureqa1 (Schmidt and Lipson, 2009) - pronounced "eureka" - is a software tool for finding equations and detecting mathematical relationships in a dataset. The challenge, for both software and modeller, is to identify, by means of symbolic regression, the simplest mathematical formulas which describe the underlying mechanisms that produced the data. It actually delivers, however, a series of preferred modelling solutions comprising one champion for each specific level of complexity i.e. related to solution enlargement involving the progressive incorporation of additional permitted factors (internal operators/ external drivers). The potential benefit of increased complexity can as a result be assessed in a rational manner. Eureqa is free to download and use; and, in the current study, has been employed to construct a set of rainfall-runoff transfer function models for the Annapolis River at Wilmot, in north-western Nova Scotia, Canada. The climatic conditions in this catchment present an interesting set of modelling challenges; daily variations and seasonal changes in temperature, snowfall and retention result in great difficulty for runoff prediction by means of a data-driven approach. Data from 10 years of daily observations are used in the present study (01/01/2000-31/12/2009): comprising [i] discharge, [ii] total rainfall (excluding snowfall), [iii] total snowfall, [iv] thickness of snow cover, and [v] maximum and [vi] minimum temperature. Precipitation occurs throughout the whole year being slightly lower during summer. Snowfall is common from November until April and rare hurricane weather may occur in autumn. The average maximum temperature is below 0 0C in January and February, but significant

  17. A simple rainfall-runoff model based on hydrological units applied to the Teba catchment (south-east Spain)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Donker, N. H. W.

    2001-01-01

    A hydrological model (YWB, yearly water balance) has been developed to model the daily rainfall-runoff relationship of the 202 km2 Teba river catchment, located in semi-arid south-eastern Spain. The period of available data (1976-1993) includes some very rainy years with intensive storms (responsible for flooding parts of the town of Malaga) and also some very dry years.The YWB model is in essence a simple tank model in which the catchment is subdivided into a limited number of meaningful hydrological units. Instead of generating per unit surface runoff resulting from infiltration excess, runoff has been made the result of storage excess. Actual evapotranspiration is obtained by means of curves, included in the software, representing the relationship between the ratio of actual to potential evapotranspiration as a function of soil moisture content for three soil texture classes.The total runoff generated is split between base flow and surface runoff according to a given baseflow index. The two components are routed separately and subsequently joined. A large number of sequential years can be processed, and the results of each year are summarized by a water balance table and a daily based rainfall runoff time series. An attempt has been made to restrict the amount of input data to the minimum.Interactive manual calibration is advocated in order to allow better incorporation of field evidence and the experience of the model user. Field observations allowed for an approximate calibration at the hydrological unit level.

  18. Using natural Chinese zeolite to remove ammonium from rainfall runoff following urea fertilization of a paddy rice field.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wang, Xiao-Ling; Qiao, Bin; Li, Song-Min; Li, Jian-Sheng

    2016-03-01

    The potential of natural Chinese zeolite to remove ammonium from rainfall runoff following urea applications to a paddy rice field is assessed in this study. Laboratory batch kinetic and isotherm experiments were carried out first to investigate the ammonium adsorption capacity of the natural zeolite. Field experiments using zeolite adsorption barriers installed at drain outlets in a paddy rice field were also carried out during natural rainfall events to evaluate the barrier's dynamic removal capacity of ammonium. The results demonstrate that the adsorption kinetics are accurately described by the Elovich model, with a coefficient of determination (R (2)) ranging from 0.9705 to 0.9709, whereas the adsorption isotherm results indicate that the Langmuir-Freundlich model provides the best fit (R (2) = 0.992) for the equilibrium data. The field experiments show that both the flow rate and the barrier volume are important controls on ammonium removal from rainfall runoff. A low flow rate leads to a higher ammonium removal efficiency at the beginning of the tests, while a high flow rate leads to a higher quantity of ammonium adsorbed over the entire runoff process.

  19. Innovative use of soft data for the validation of a rainfall-runoff model forced by remote sensing data

    Science.gov (United States)

    van Emmerik, Tim; Eilander, Dirk; Piet, Marijn; Mulder, Gert

    2013-04-01

    The Chamcar Bei catchment in southern Cambodia is a typical ungauged basin. Neither meteorological data or discharge measurements are available. In this catchment, local farmers are highly dependent on the irrigation system. However, due to the unreliability of the water supply, it was required to make a hydrological model, with which further improvements of the irrigation system could be planned. First, we used knowledge generated in the IAHS decade on Predictions in Ungauged Basins (PUB) to estimate the annual water balance of the Chamcar Bei catchment. Next, using remotely sensed precipitation, vegetation, elevation and transpiration data, a monthly rainfall-runoff model has been developed. The rainfall-runoff model was linked to the irrigation system reservoir, which allowed to validate the model based on soft data such as historical knowledge of the reservoir water level and groundwater levels visible in wells. This study shows that combining existing remote sensing data and soft ground data can lead to useful modeling results. The approach presented in this study can be applied in other ungauged basins, which can be extremely helpful in managing water resources in developing countries.

  20. Transport and solubility of Hetero-disperse dry deposition particulate matter subject to urban source area rainfall-runoff processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ying, G.; Sansalone, J.

    2010-03-01

    SummaryWith respect to hydrologic processes, the impervious pavement interface significantly alters relationships between rainfall and runoff. Commensurate with alteration of hydrologic processes the pavement also facilitates transport and solubility of dry deposition particulate matter (PM) in runoff. This study examines dry depositional flux rates, granulometric modification by runoff transport, as well as generation of total dissolved solids (TDS), alkalinity and conductivity in source area runoff resulting from PM solubility. PM is collected from a paved source area transportation corridor (I-10) in Baton Rouge, Louisiana encompassing 17 dry deposition and 8 runoff events. The mass-based granulometric particle size distribution (PSD) is measured and modeled through a cumulative gamma function, while PM surface area distributions across the PSD follow a log-normal distribution. Dry deposition flux rates are modeled as separate first-order exponential functions of previous dry hours (PDH) for PM and suspended, settleable and sediment fractions. When trans-located from dry deposition into runoff, PSDs are modified, with a d50m decreasing from 331 to 14 μm after transport and 60 min of settling. Solubility experiments as a function of pH, contact time and particle size using source area rainfall generate constitutive models to reproduce pH, alkalinity, TDS and alkalinity for historical events. Equilibrium pH, alkalinity and TDS are strongly influenced by particle size and contact times. The constitutive leaching models are combined with measured PSDs from a series of rainfall-runoff events to demonstrate that the model results replicate alkalinity and TDS in runoff from the subject watershed. Results illustrate the granulometry of dry deposition PM, modification of PSDs along the drainage pathway, and the role of PM solubility for generation of TDS, alkalinity and conductivity in urban source area rainfall-runoff.

  1. Hydrological model parameterization using NDVI values to account for the effects of land-cover change on the rainfall-runoff response

    Science.gov (United States)

    Classic rainfall-runoff models usually use historical data to estimate model parameters and mean values of parameters are considered for predictions. However, due to climate changes and human effects, the parameters of model change temporally. To overcome this problem, Normalized Difference Vegetati...

  2. Using high resolution aridity and drainage position data to better predict rainfall-runoff relationships in complex upland topography

    Science.gov (United States)

    Metzen, D.; Sheridan, G. J.; Benyon, R. G.; Lane, P. N. J.

    2015-12-01

    In topographically complex terrain, the interaction of aspect-dependent solar exposure and drainage-position-dependent flow accumulation results in energy and water partitioning that is highly spatially variable. Catchment scale rainfall-runoff relationships are dependent on these smaller scale spatial patterns. However, there remains considerable uncertainty as to how to represent this smaller scale variability within lumped parameter, catchment scale rainfall-runoff models. In this study we aim to measure and represent the key interactions between aridity and drainage position in complex terrain to inform the development of simple catchment-scale hydrologic model parameters. Six measurement plots were setup on opposing slopes in an east-west facing eucalypt forest headwater catchment. The field sites are spanning three drainage positions with two contrasting aridity indices each, while minimizing variations in other factors, e.g. geology and weather patterns. Sapflow, soil water content (SWC) and throughfall were continuously monitored on two convergent hillslopes with similar size (1.3 and 1.6ha) but contrasting aspects (north and south). Soil depth varied from 0.6m at the topslope to >2m at the bottomslope positions. Maximum tree heights ranged from 16.2m to 36.9m on the equator-facing slope and from 30.1m to 45.5m on the pole-facing slope, with height decreasing upslope on both aspects. Two evapotranspiration (ET) patterns emerged in relation to aridity and drainage position. On the equator-facing slope (AI~ 2.1), seasonal understorey and overstorey ET patterns were in sync, whereas on the pole-facing slope (AI~1.5) understorey ET showed larger seasonal fluctuations than overstorey ET. Seasonal ET patterns and competition between soil evaporation and root water uptake lead to distinct differences in profile SWC across the sites, likely caused by depletion from different depths. Topsoil water content on equator-facing slopes was generally lower and responded

  3. Use of Fuzzy rainfall-runoff predictions for claypan watersheds with conservation buffers in Northeast Missouri

    Science.gov (United States)

    Despite increased interest in watershed scale model simulations, literature lacks application of long-term data in fuzzy logic simulations and comparing outputs with physically based models such as APEX (Agricultural Policy Environmental eXtender). The objective of this study was to develop a fuzzy...

  4. Comparison between snowmelt-runoff and rainfall-runoff nonpoint source pollution in a typical urban catchment in Beijing, China.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Chen, Lei; Zhi, Xiaosha; Shen, Zhenyao; Dai, Ying; Aini, Guzhanuer

    2018-01-01

    As a climate-driven event, nonpoint source (NPS) pollution is caused by rainfall- or snowmelt-runoff processes; however, few studies have compared the characteristics and mechanisms of these two kinds of NPS processes. In this study, three factors relating to urban NPS, including surface dust, snowmelt, and rainfall-runoff processes, were analyzed comprehensively by both field sampling and laboratory experiments. The seasonal variation and leaching characteristics of pollutants in surface dust were explored, and the runoff quality of snowmelt NPS and rainfall NPS were compared. The results indicated that dusts are the main sources of urban NPS and more pollutants are deposited in dust samples during winter and spring. However, pollutants in surface dust showed a low leaching ratio, which indicated most NPS pollutants would be carried as particulate forms. Compared to surface layer, underlying snow contained higher chemical oxygen demand, total suspended solids (TSS), Cu, Fe, Mn, and Pb concentrations, while the event mean concentration of most pollutants in snowmelt tended to be higher in roads. Moreover, the TSS and heavy metal content of snowmelt NPS was always higher than those of rainfall NPS, which indicated the importance of controlling snowmelt pollution for effective water quality management.

  5. Hydraulic Geometry, GIS and Remote Sensing, Techniques against Rainfall-Runoff Models for Estimating Flood Magnitude in Ephemeral Fluvial Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Rafael Garcia-Lorenzo

    2010-11-01

    Full Text Available This paper shows the combined use of remotely sensed data and hydraulic geometry methods as an alternative to rainfall-runoff models. Hydraulic geometric data and boolean images of water sheets obtained from satellite images after storm events were integrated in a Geographical Information System. Channel cross-sections were extracted from a high resolution Digital Terrain Model (DTM and superimposed on the image cover to estimate the peak flow using HEC-RAS. The proposed methodology has been tested in ephemeral channels (ramblas on the coastal zone in south-eastern Spain. These fluvial systems constitute an important natural hazard due to their high discharges and sediment loads. In particular, different areas affected by floods during the period 1997 to 2009 were delimited through HEC-GeoRAs from hydraulic geometry data and Landsat images of these floods (Landsat‑TM5 and Landsat-ETM+7. Such an approach has been validated against rainfall-surface runoff models (SCS Dimensionless Unit Hydrograph, SCSD, Témez gamma HU Tγ and the Modified Rational method, MRM comparing their results with flood hydrographs of the Automatic Hydrologic Information System (AHIS in several ephemeral channels in the Murcia Region. The results obtained from the method providing a better fit were used to calculate different hydraulic geometry parameters, especially in residual flood areas.

  6. The Impact of the Variability of Precipitation and Temperatures on the Efficiency of a Conceptual Rainfall-Runoff Model

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Sleziak P.

    2016-12-01

    Full Text Available The main objective of the paper is to understand how the model’s efficiency and the selected climatic indicators are related. The hydrological model applied in this study is a conceptual rainfall-runoff model (the TUW model, which was developed at the Vienna University of Technology. This model was calibrated over three different periods between 1981-2010 in three groups of Austrian catchments (snow, runoff, and soil catchments, which represent a wide range of the hydroclimatic conditions of Austria. The model’s calibration was performed using a differential evolution algorithm (Deoptim. As an objective function, we used a combination of the Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (NSE and the logarithmic Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient (logNSE. The model’s efficiency was evaluated by Volume error (VE. Subsequently, we evaluated the relationship between the model’s efficiency (VE and changes in the climatic indicators (precipitation ΔP, air temperature ΔT. The implications of findings are discussed in the conclusion.

  7. Rainfall-runoff modelling of the Okavango River catchment to assess impacts of land use change on runoff and downstream ecosystems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Milzow, Christian; Bauer-Gottwein, Peter

    2010-05-01

    The competition between human water use and ecosystem water use is one of the major challenges for water resources management at the global scale. We analyse the situation for the Okavango River basin of southern Africa. The Okavango River is representative for many large rivers throughout the developing world in that it is ungauged and poorly studied. The Okavango basin - spanning over Angola, Namibia and Botswana - represents a multi-objective problem in an international setting. Economic benefits of agricultural development and conservation of ecosystem services call for opposed actions. A semi-distributed rainfall-runoff model of the Okavango catchment is set up using the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT). The model is sufficiently physically based to simulate the impact on runoff of extent of agricultural use, crop types and management practices. Precipitation and temperature inputs are taken from datasets covering large parts of the globe. The methodology can thus easily be applied for other ungauged catchments. For temperature we use the ERA-Interim reanalysis product of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts and for precipitation the Famine Early Warning Systems Network data (FEWS-Net). Tropical Rainfall Measurement Mission (TRMM) data resulted in poor model performance compared to the FEWS-Net data. Presently, the upstream catchment in Angola is largely pristine and agriculture is basically restricted to dry land subsistence farming. But economic growth in Angola is likely to result in agricultural development and consequent impacts on catchment runoff. Land use scenarios that are simulated include large scale irrigated agriculture with water extractions from the river and the shallow aquifer. Climate change impacts are also studied and compared to land use change impacts. The downstream part of the basin consists of the large Okavango Wetlands, which are a biodiversity hotspot of global importance and, through tourism, an important

  8. Initial conditions of urban permeable surfaces in rainfall-runoff models using Horton’s infiltration

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Davidsen, Steffen; Löwe, Roland; Høegh Ravn, Nanna

    2017-01-01

    Infiltration is a key process controlling runoff, but varies depending on antecedent conditions. This study provides estimates on initial conditions for urban permeable surfaces via continuous simulation of the infiltration capacity using historical rain data. An analysis of historical rainfall...... records show that accumulated rainfall prior to large rain events does not depend on the return period of the event. Using an infiltration-runoff model we found that for a typical large rain storm, antecedent conditions in general lead to reduced infiltration capacity both for sandy and clayey soils...... and that there is substantial runoff for return periods above 1–10 years....

  9. Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Basarudin, Z.; Adnan, N. A.; Latif, A. R. A.; Tahir, W.; Syafiqah, N.

    2014-02-01

    Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area.

  10. Event-based rainfall-runoff modelling of the Kelantan River Basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Basarudin, Z; Adnan, N A; Latif, A R A; Syafiqah, N; Tahir, W

    2014-01-01

    Flood is one of the most common natural disasters in Malaysia. According to hydrologists there are many causes that contribute to flood events. The two most dominant factors are the meteorology factor (i.e climate change) and change in land use. These two factors contributed to floods in recent decade especially in the monsoonal catchment such as Malaysia. This paper intends to quantify the influence of rainfall during extreme rainfall events on the hydrological model in the Kelantan River catchment. Therefore, two dynamic inputs were used in the study: rainfall and river discharge. The extreme flood events in 2008 and 2004 were compared based on rainfall data for both years. The events were modeled via a semi-distributed HEC-HMS hydrological model. Land use change was not incorporated in the study because the study only tries to quantify rainfall changes during these two events to simulate the discharge and runoff value. Therefore, the land use data representing the year 2004 were used as inputs in the 2008 runoff model. The study managed to demonstrate that rainfall change has a significant impact to determine the peak discharge and runoff depth for the study area

  11. Responses of hydrochemical inorganic ions in the rainfall-runoff processes of the experimental catchments and its significance for tracing

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gu, W.-Z.; Lu, J.-J.; Zhao, X.; Peters, N.E.

    2007-01-01

    Aimed at the rainfall-runoff tracing using inorganic ions, the experimental study is conducted in the Chuzhou Hydrology Laboratory with special designed experimental catchments, lysimeters, etc. The various runoff components including the surface runoff, interflow from the unsaturated zone and the groundwater flow from saturated zone were monitored hydrometrically. Hydrochemical inorganic ions including Na+, K+, Ca2+, Mg2+, Cl-, SO42-, HCO3- + CO32-, NO3-, F-, NH4-, PO42-, SiO2 and, pH, EC, 18O were measured within a one month period for all processes of rainfall, various runoff components and groundwater within the catchment from 17 boreholes distributed in the Hydrohill Catchment, few soil water samples were also included. The results show that: (a) all the runoff components are distinctly identifiable from both the relationships of Ca2+ versus Cl-/SO42-, EC versus Na+/(Na+ + Ca2+) and, from most inorganic ions individually; (b) the variation of inorganic ions in surface runoff is the biggest than that in other flow components; (c) most ions has its lowermost concentration in rainfall process but it increases as the generation depths of runoff components increased; (d) quantitatively, ion processes of rainfall and groundwater flow display as two end members of that of other runoff components; and (e) the 18O processes of rainfall and runoff components show some correlation with that of inorganic ions. The results also show that the rainfall input is not always the main source of inorganic ions of various runoff outputs due to the process of infiltration and dissolution resulted from the pre-event processes. The amount and sources of Cl- of runoff components with various generation mechanisms challenge the current method of groundwater recharge estimation using Cl-.

  12. Application of Volumetric Weather Radar Data and the Distributed Rainfall Runoff Model REW in the Ourthe Catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hazenberg, P.; Leijnse, H.; Torfs, P.; Uijlenhoet, R.; Weerts, A.; Reggiani, P.; Delobbe, L.

    2008-12-01

    In the southern Ardennes region of Belgium near the border with Luxembourg, the Royal Meteorological Institute of Belgium (RMI) installed a C-band Doppler weather radar at an elevation of 600 m in the year 2001. This volumetric weather radar scans over multiple elevations at a temporal resolution of 5 minutes. The current study explores the possibility of using the volumetric information of the precipitation field to correct for the effects of the Vertical Profile of Reflectivity (VPR) over the period October 1, 2002 until March 31, 2003. During this winter half year storm events are mainly stratiform, giving rise to bright band effects which can decrease the performance of the radar. Previous studies have shown multiple drawbacks in applying a single estimated VPR profile to correct such reflectivity data. Therefore, the focus here is on the temporal variability of the VPR as measured by the radar and its variability over different spatial scales. This information is applied to generate a number of possible rainfall fields. These realizations are employed to try to quantify some of the discrepancies in precipitation intensities as estimated by the weather radar and those measured by a raingauge network. The final step then is to assess their potential within a distributed rainfall runoff model. The 1597 km2 Ourthe catchment lies within 60 km of the radar. Over this medium sized watershed ten raingauges measuring at an hourly interval are more or less equally distributed. Near the outlet discharge data are collected at the same time step. The distributed hydrological Representative Elementary Watershed (REW) model is applied to model the hydrological behavior of the Ourthe over the six month period. The benefits of the high spatial and temporal resolution of weather radar data compared to a conventional raingauge network plus the possibility of generating multiple realizations of the precipitation field are expected to yield more information about the hydrological

  13. [Hydrology and water quality of rainfall-runoff in combined sewerage system along Suzhou Creek in central Shanghai].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cheng, Jiang; Yang, Kai; Huang, Xiao-Fang; Lü, Yong-Peng

    2009-07-15

    In order to obtain the processes of hydrology and water quality of urban combined sewerage system (CSS) in highly urbanized region, the precipitation, discharge and pollutant concentration of four different intensity rainfall (light rain, moderate rain, heavy rain and storm) were measured from Jul. to Sep. 2007 in the Chendulu CSS along Suzhou Creek in Shanghai. The results show that the shapes of runoff graph are similar to rainfall graph, with a weaker fluctuation range and a 15-25 min delay between rainfall and runoff graph. Runoff coefficients of the four different rainfall are 0.33, 0.62, 0.67 and 0.73, respectively. The 30/30 first flush phenomenon is found in Chendulu CSS. The peak of pollutant concentration graph lags rainfall peak about 30-40 min. The pH and event mean concentration (EMC) of Cu, Zn, Cr, Cd, Pb and Ni totally measure up to environmental quality standards V for surface water of China besides COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, and the EMC of COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP are 225.0-544.1, 31.5-98.9, 8.9-44.2 and 1.98-3.52 mg x L(-1), respectively. The rainfall-runoff pollutant concentration in Chendulu CSS is close to those of other foreign cites. At the confidence level of p < 0.01, good relationships exist between SS and COD, BOD5, NH4(+) -N and TP, respectively, and the average proportion of particulate organic pollutant and nutrient is 70.21%.

  14. Rainfall-runoff of anthropogenic waste indicators from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, James L.; Borch, Thomas; Furlong, Edward T.; Davis, Jessica; Yager, Tracy; Yang, Yun-Ya; Kolpin, Dana W.

    2017-01-01

    The presence of anthropogenic contaminants such as antimicrobials, flame-retardants, and plasticizers in runoff from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids may pose a potential threat to the environment. This study assesses the potential for rainfall-induced runoff of 69 anthropogenic waste indicators (AWIs), widely found in household and industrial products, from biosolids amended field plots. The agricultural field containing the test plots was treated with biosolids for the first time immediately prior to this study. AWIs present in soil and biosolids were isolated by continuous liquid-liquid extraction and analyzed by full-scan gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Results for 18 AWIs were not evaluated due to their presence in field blank QC samples, and another 34 did not have sufficient detection frequency in samples to analyze trends in data. A total of 17 AWIs, including 4-nonylphenol, triclosan, and tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate, were present in runoff with acceptable data quality and frequency for subsequent interpretation. Runoff samples were collected 5 days prior to and 1, 9, and 35 days after biosolids application. Of the 17 AWIs considered, 14 were not detected in pre-application samples, or their concentrations were much smaller than in the sample collected one day after application. A range of trends was observed for individual AWI concentrations (typically from 0.1 to 10 μg/L) over the course of the study, depending on the combination of partitioning and degradation mechanisms affecting each compound most strongly. Overall, these results indicate that rainfall can mobilize anthropogenic contaminants from biosolids-amended agricultural fields, directly to surface waters and redistribute them to terrestrial sites away from the point of application via runoff. For 14 of 17 compounds examined, the potential for runoff remobilization during rainstorms persists even after three 100-year rainstorm-equivalent simulations and the

  15. Rainfall-runoff of anthropogenic waste indicators from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gray, James L; Borch, Thomas; Furlong, Edward T; Davis, Jessica G; Yager, Tracy J; Yang, Yun-Ya; Kolpin, Dana W

    2017-02-15

    The presence of anthropogenic contaminants such as antimicrobials, flame-retardants, and plasticizers in runoff from agricultural fields applied with municipal biosolids may pose a potential threat to the environment. This study assesses the potential for rainfall-induced runoff of 69 anthropogenic waste indicators (AWIs), widely found in household and industrial products, from biosolids amended field plots. The agricultural field containing the test plots was treated with biosolids for the first time immediately prior to this study. AWIs present in soil and biosolids were isolated by continuous liquid-liquid extraction and analyzed by full-scan gas chromatography/mass spectrometry. Results for 18 AWIs were not evaluated due to their presence in field blank QC samples, and another 34 did not have sufficient detection frequency in samples to analyze trends in data. A total of 17 AWIs, including 4-nonylphenol, triclosan, and tris(2-butoxyethyl)phosphate, were present in runoff with acceptable data quality and frequency for subsequent interpretation. Runoff samples were collected 5days prior to and 1, 9, and 35days after biosolids application. Of the 17 AWIs considered, 14 were not detected in pre-application samples, or their concentrations were much smaller than in the sample collected one day after application. A range of trends was observed for individual AWI concentrations (typically from 0.1 to 10μg/L) over the course of the study, depending on the combination of partitioning and degradation mechanisms affecting each compound most strongly. Overall, these results indicate that rainfall can mobilize anthropogenic contaminants from biosolids-amended agricultural fields, directly to surface waters and redistribute them to terrestrial sites away from the point of application via runoff. For 14 of 17 compounds examined, the potential for runoff remobilization during rainstorms persists even after three 100-year rainstorm-equivalent simulations and the passage of a

  16. Green roof rainfall-runoff modelling: is the comparison between conceptual and physically based approaches relevant?

    Science.gov (United States)

    Versini, Pierre-Antoine; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel

    2017-04-01

    Green roofs are commonly considered as efficient tools to mitigate urban runoff as they can store precipitation, and consequently provide retention and detention performances. Designed as a compromise between water holding capacity, weight and hydraulic conductivity, their substrate is usually an artificial media differentiating significantly from a traditional soil. In order to assess green roofs hydrological performances, many models have been developed. Classified into two categories (conceptual and physically based), they are usually applied to reproduce the discharge of a particular monitored green roof considered as homogeneous. Although the resulted simulations could be satisfactory, the question of robustness and consistency of the calibrated parameters is often not addressed. Here, a modeling framework has been developed to assess the efficiency and the robustness of both modelling approaches (conceptual and physically based) in reproducing green roof hydrological behaviour. SWMM and VS2DT models have been used for this purpose. This work also benefits from an experimental setup where several green roofs differentiated by their substrate thickness and vegetation cover are monitored. Based on the data collected for several rainfall events, it has been studied how the calibrated parameters are effectively linked to their physical properties and how they can vary from one green roof configuration to another. Although both models reproduce correctly the observed discharges in most of the cases, their calibrated parameters exhibit a high inconsistency. For a same green roof configuration, these parameters can vary significantly from one rainfall event to another, even if they are supposed to be linked to the green roof characteristics (roughness, residual moisture content for instance). They can also be different from one green roof configuration to another although the implemented substrate is the same. Finally, it appears very difficult to find any

  17. Modeling Rainfall-Runoff Response to Land Use and Land Cover Change in Rwanda (1990–2016

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Fidele Karamage

    2017-02-01

    Full Text Available Stormwater runoff poses serious environmental problems and public health issues in Rwanda, a tropical country that is increasingly suffering from severe floods, landslides, soil erosion and water pollution. Using the WetSpa Extension model, this study assessed the changes in rainfall runoff depth in Rwanda from 1990 to 2016 in response to precipitation and land use changes. Our results show that Rwanda has experienced a significant conversion of natural forest and grassland to cropland and built-up areas. During the period 1990–2016, 7090.02 km2 (64.5% and 1715.26 km2 (32.1% of forest and grassland covers were lost, respectively, while the cropland and built-up areas increased by 135.3% (8503.75 km2 and 304.3% (355.02 km2, respectively. According to our estimates, the land use change effect resulted in a national mean runoff depth increase of 2.33 mm/year (0.38%. Although precipitation change affected the inter-annual fluctuation of runoff, the long-term trend of runoff was dominated by land use change. The top five districts that experienced the annual runoff depth increase (all >3.8 mm/year are Rubavu, Nyabihu, Ngororero, Gakenke, and Musanze. Their annual runoff depths increased at a rate of >3.8 mm/year during the past 27 years, due to severe deforestation (ranging from 62% to 85% and cropland expansion (ranging from 123% to 293%. These areas require high priority in runoff control using terracing in croplands and rainwater harvesting systems such as dam/reservoirs, percolation tanks, storage tanks, etc. The wet season runoff was three times higher than the dry season runoff in Rwanda; appropriate rainwater management and reservation could provide valuable irrigation water for the dry season or drought years (late rainfall onsets or early rainfall cessations. It was estimated that a reservation of 30.5% (3.99 km3 of the runoff in the wet season could meet the cropland irrigation water gap during the dry season in 2016.

  18. Characteristics of the event mean concentration (EMCs) from rainfall runoff on mixed agricultural land use in the shoreline zone of the Yamuna River in Delhi, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sharma, Deepshikha; Gupta, Ruchi; Singh, Ram Karan; Kansal, Arun

    2012-03-01

    This paper is focused on the monitoring of the diffuse pollution characteristics from the agricultural land confining the River Yamuna in Delhi (capital of India). Agricultural fields surrounding the Yamuna river are direct nonpoint source of pollution impacting the river quality. The study includes watershed delineation for the River Yamuna using SWAT (2005) and land use classification for the city using GIS and remote sensing. Thereafter, the rainfall-runoff pollutant concentrations from the mixed agricultural land use were assessed for the 2006 and 2007 monsoon period (July-September). Runoff was measured using SCS method and grab samples of rainfall runoff were collected at three stations namely Old Delhi Railway Bridge (ODRB), Nizamuddin and Okhla bridge in Delhi. The samples were analysed for physico-chemical and biological parameters. Rainfall runoff and event mean concentrations (EMCs) for different water quality parameters were characterized and the effect of land use was analyzed. The average EMCs for BOD, COD, ammonia, nitrate, TKN, hardness, TDS, TSS, chlorides, sulfates, phosphate, fluorides and TC were 21.82 mg/L, 73.48 mg/L, 72.68 μg/L, 229.87 μg/L, 15.32 μg/L, 11.36 mg/L, 117.44 mg/L, 77.60 mg/L, 117.64 mg/L, 135.82 mg/L, 0.08 mg/L, 0.85 mg/L and 2,827.47 MPN/100 mL, respectively. The EMCs of TSS, nitrogen and its compounds, phosphate and BOD were high.

  19. Contribution of hydrological data to the understanding of the spatio-temporal dynamics of F-specific RNA bacteriophages in river water during rainfall-runoff events.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Fauvel, Blandine; Cauchie, Henry-Michel; Gantzer, Christophe; Ogorzaly, Leslie

    2016-05-01

    Heavy rainfall events were previously reported to bring large amounts of microorganisms in surface water, including viruses. However, little information is available on the origin and transport of viral particles in water during such rain events. In this study, an integrative approach combining microbiological and hydrological measurements was investigated to appreciate the dynamics and origins of F-specific RNA bacteriophage fluxes during two distinct rainfall-runoff events. A high frequency sampling (automatic sampler) was set up to monitor the F-specific RNA bacteriophages fluxes at a fine temporal scale during the whole course of the rainfall-runoff events. A total of 276 rainfall-runoff samples were collected and analysed using both infectivity and RT-qPCR assays. The results highlight an increase of 2.5 log10 and 1.8 log10 of infectious F-specific RNA bacteriophage fluxes in parallel of an increase of the water flow levels for both events. Faecal pollution was characterised as being mainly from anthropic origin with a significant flux of phage particles belonging to the genogroup II. At the temporal scale, two successive distinct waves of phage pollution were established and identified through the hydrological measurements. The first arrival of phages in the water column was likely to be linked to the resuspension of riverbed sediments that was responsible for a high input of genogroup II. Surface runoff contributed further to the second input of phages, and more particularly of genogroup I. In addition, an important contribution of infectious phage particles has been highlighted. These findings imply the existence of a close relationship between the risk for human health and the viral contamination of flood water. Copyright © 2016 Luxembourg institute of Science and Technology. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.

  20. Evaluation of statistical and rainfall-runoff models for predicting historical daily streamflow time series in the Des Moines and Iowa River watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Farmer, William H.; Knight, Rodney R.; Eash, David A.; Kasey J. Hutchinson,; Linhart, S. Mike; Christiansen, Daniel E.; Archfield, Stacey A.; Over, Thomas M.; Kiang, Julie E.

    2015-08-24

    Daily records of streamflow are essential to understanding hydrologic systems and managing the interactions between human and natural systems. Many watersheds and locations lack streamgages to provide accurate and reliable records of daily streamflow. In such ungaged watersheds, statistical tools and rainfall-runoff models are used to estimate daily streamflow. Previous work compared 19 different techniques for predicting daily streamflow records in the southeastern United States. Here, five of the better-performing methods are compared in a different hydroclimatic region of the United States, in Iowa. The methods fall into three classes: (1) drainage-area ratio methods, (2) nonlinear spatial interpolations using flow duration curves, and (3) mechanistic rainfall-runoff models. The first two classes are each applied with nearest-neighbor and map-correlated index streamgages. Using a threefold validation and robust rank-based evaluation, the methods are assessed for overall goodness of fit of the hydrograph of daily streamflow, the ability to reproduce a daily, no-fail storage-yield curve, and the ability to reproduce key streamflow statistics. As in the Southeast study, a nonlinear spatial interpolation of daily streamflow using flow duration curves is found to be a method with the best predictive accuracy. Comparisons with previous work in Iowa show that the accuracy of mechanistic models with at-site calibration is substantially degraded in the ungaged framework.

  1. Supply Chain Simulation : A Survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of simulation in supply chain management.It reviews four types of simulation, namely spreadsheet simulation, system dynamics, discreteevent simulation, and business games.Which simulation type should be applied, depends on the type of managerial question to be answered

  2. High-frequency DOC and nitrate measurements provide new insights into their export and their relationships to rainfall-runoff processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Michael; Klaus, Julian; Pfister, Laurent; Weiler, Markus

    2015-04-01

    Over the past decades, stream sampling protocols for environmental tracers were often limited by logistical and technological constraints. Long-term sampling programs would typically rely on weekly sampling campaigns, while high-frequency sampling would remain restricted to a few days or hours at best. We stipulate that the currently predominant sampling protocols are too coarse to capture and understand the full amplitude of rainfall-runoff processes and its relation to water quality fluctuations. Weekly sampling protocols are not suited to get insights into the hydrological system during high flow conditions. Likewise, high frequency measurements of a few isolated events do not allow grasping inter-event variability in contributions and processes. Our working hypothesis is based on the potential of a new generation of field-deployable instruments for measuring environmental tracers at high temporal frequencies over an extended period. With this new generation of instruments we expect to gain new insights into rainfall-runoff dynamics, both at intra- and inter-event scales. Here, we present the results of one year of DOC and nitrate measurements with the field deployable UV-Vis spectrometer spectro::lyser (scan Messtechnik GmbH). The instrument measures the absorption spectrum from 220 to 720 nm in situ and at high frequencies and derives DOC and nitrate concentrations. The measurements were carried out at 15 minutes intervals in the Weierbach catchment (0.47 km2) in Luxemburg. This fully forested catchment is characterized by cambisol soils and fractured schist as underlying bedrock. The time series of DOC and nitrate give insights into the high frequency dynamics of stream water. Peaks in DOC concentrations are closely linked to discharge peaks that occur during or right after a rainfall event. Those first discharge peaks can be linked to fast near surface runoff processes and are responsible for a remarkable amount of DOC export. A special characterisation of

  3. Supply Chain Simulation: A Survey

    OpenAIRE

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2003-01-01

    This paper provides a survey of simulation in supply chain management.It reviews four types of simulation, namely spreadsheet simulation, system dynamics, discreteevent simulation, and business games.Which simulation type should be applied, depends on the type of managerial question to be answered by the model.Moreover, this paper summarizes novel sensitivity and robustness analyses.This sensitivity analysis yields a shortlist of the truly important factors in large simulation models with (sa...

  4. Reply to comment by Fred L. Ogden et al. on "Beyond the SCS-CN method: A theoretical framework for spatially lumped rainfall-runoff response"

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett, M. S.; Parolari, A. J.; McDonnell, J. J.; Porporato, A.

    2017-07-01

    Though Ogden et al. list several shortcomings of the original SCS-CN method, fit for purpose is a key consideration in hydrological modelling, as shown by the adoption of SCS-CN method in many design standards. The theoretical framework of Bartlett et al. [2016a] reveals a family of semidistributed models, of which the SCS-CN method is just one member. Other members include event-based versions of the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) model and TOPMODEL. This general model allows us to move beyond the limitations of the original SCS-CN method under different rainfall-runoff mechanisms and distributions for soil and rainfall variability. Future research should link this general model approach to different hydrogeographic settings, in line with the call for action proposed by Ogden et al.

  5. Utilizing Remote Sensing Information to Improve Post-fire Rainfall-runoff Predictions after the 2010 Bull Fire in the Sequoia National Forest, CA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kinoshita, A. M.; Hale, B.; Hogue, T. S.

    2012-12-01

    Post-fire management decisions are guided by rainfall-runoff predictions, which ultimately influence downstream treatment and mitigation costs. The current study investigates evolving rainfall-runoff partitioning at the watershed scale over a two-year period after the 2010 Bull Fire which occurred in the southern Sequoia National Forest in California. Stage height was measured at five-minute intervals using pressure transducers, tipping buckets were installed for rainfall duration and intensity, and channel cross-sections were measured approximately every two months to detail sediment deposition or scour. We also utilize remotely sensed vegetation data to evaluate vegetation recovery in the studied watersheds and the corresponding relationship to storm runoff. Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI), a measure of vegetation greenness, is evaluated for its potential use as a key recovery indicator. Preliminary results focus on alterations in annual and seasonal precipitation and discharge relationships using in-situ data and Landsat NDVI values for the period of study. NDVI values are consistent with a comprehensive burn, with an acute decrease observed in the initial post-fire period. However, vegetation recovery is highly variable in the studied systems and influenced by shorter-term biomass pulses (grasses) while longer-term recovery of other species (chaparral and pine) is ongoing. Runoff ratios are elevated during early storms and show some recovery in the later part of the study period. The ability to accurately and confidently predict post-fire runoff and longer-term recovery is critical for monitoring values-at-risk, reducing mitigation costs, and improving warnings to downstream public communities.

  6. Application of The Rainfall-runoff Model Topkapi For The Entire Basin of The Po River As Part of The European Project Effs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Todini, E.; Bartholmes, J.

    The project EFFS (European Flood Forecasting System) aims at developing a flood forecasting system for the major river basins all over Europe. To extend the forecast- ing and thus the warning time in a significant way (up to 10 days) meteorological forecasting data from the ECMWF will be used as input to hydrological models. For this purpose it is fundamental to have a reliable rainfall-runoff model. For the river Po basin we chose the TOPKAPI model (Ciarapica, Todini 1998). TOPKAPI is a physi- cally based rainfall-runoff model that maintains its physical significance passing from hillslope to large basin scale. The aim of the distributed version is to reproduce the spatial variability and to lead to a better understanding of scaling effects on meteo- rological data used as well as of physical phenomena and parameters. By now the TOPKAPI model has been applied successfully to basins of smaller and medium size (up to 8000 km2). The present work also proves that TOPKAPI is a valuable flood forecasting tool for larger basins such as the Po river. An advantage of the TOPKAPI model is its physical basis. It doesn't need a "real" calibration in the common sense of the expression. The calibration work that has to be done is due to the unavoidable averaging and approximation in the input data representing various phenomena. This reduces the calibration work as well as the length of data required. The model was implemented on the Po river at spatial steps of 1km and time steps of 1 hour using available data during the year 1994. After the calibration phase, mesoscale forecasts (from ECMWF) as well as forecasts of LAM models (DWD,DMI) will be used as input to the Po river models and their behaviour will be studied as a function of the prediction quality and of the coarseness of the spatial discretisation.

  7. Measurement of initial soil moisture conditions for purposes of rainfall simulation experiments

    OpenAIRE

    TEREZA, Davidová; VÁCLAV, David

    2015-01-01

    The research on rainfall-runoff processes has become even more important in recent decades with respect to both flood and drought events as well as to expected impacts of considered climate changes. It is researched in different ways and at different scales according to the purpose. The rainfall simulator developed at Department of Irrigation, Drainage and Landscape Engineering is being used for purposes of detail analysis of rainfall-runoff process in order to research infiltration process w...

  8. Comment on "Beyond the SCS-CN method: A theoretical framework for spatially lumped rainfall-runoff response" by M. S. Bartlett et al.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ogden, Fred L.; Hawkins, Richard Pete; Walter, M. Todd; Goodrich, David C.

    2017-07-01

    Bartlett et al. (2016) performed a re-interpretation and modification of the space-time lumped USDA NRCS (formerly SCS) Curve Number (CN) method to extend its applicability to forested watersheds. We believe that the well documented limitations of the CN method severely constrains the applicability of the modifications proposed by Bartlett et al. (2016). This forward-looking comment urges the research communities in hydrologic science and engineering to consider the CN method as a stepping stone that has outlived its usefulness in research. The CN method fills a narrow niche in certain settings as a parsimonious method having utility as an empirical equation to estimate runoff from a given amount of rainfall, which originated as a static functional form that fits rainfall-runoff data sets. Sixty five years of use and multiple reinterpretations have not resulted in improved hydrological predictability using the method. We suggest that the research community should move forward by (1) identifying appropriate dynamic hydrological model formulations for different hydro-geographic settings, (2) specifying needed model capabilities for solving different classes of problems (e.g., flooding, erosion/sedimentation, nutrient transport, water management, etc.) in different hydro-geographic settings, and (3) expanding data collection and research programs to help ameliorate the so-called "overparameterization" problem in contemporary modeling. Many decades of advances in geo-spatial data and processing, computation, and understanding are being squandered on continued focus on the static CN regression method. It is time to truly "move beyond" the Curve Number method.

  9. Assessing groundwater recharge in an Andean closed basin using isotopic characterization and a rainfall-runoff model: Salar del Huasco basin, Chile

    Science.gov (United States)

    Uribe, Javier; Muñoz, José F.; Gironás, Jorge; Oyarzún, Ricardo; Aguirre, Evelyn; Aravena, Ramón

    2015-11-01

    Closed basins are catchments whose drainage networks converge to lakes, salt flats or alluvial plains. Salt flats in the closed basins in arid northern Chile are extremely important ecological niches. The Salar del Huasco, one of these salt flats located in the high plateau (Altiplano), is a Ramsar site located in a national park and is composed of a wetland ecosystem rich in biodiversity. The proper management of the groundwater, which is essential for the wetland function, requires accurate estimates of recharge in the Salar del Huasco basin. This study quantifies the spatio-temporal distribution of the recharge, through combined use of isotopic characterization of the different components of the water cycle and a rainfall-runoff model. The use of both methodologies aids the understanding of hydrological behavior of the basin and enabled estimation of a long-term average recharge of 22 mm/yr (i.e., 15 % of the annual rainfall). Recharge has a high spatial variability, controlled by the geological and hydrometeorological characteristics of the basin, and a high interannual variability, with values ranging from 18 to 26 mm/yr. The isotopic approach allowed not only the definition of the conceptual model used in the hydrological model, but also eliminated the possibility of a hydrogeological connection between the aquifer of the Salar del Huasco basin and the aquifer that feeds the springs of the nearby town of Pica. This potential connection has been an issue of great interest to agriculture and tourism activities in the region.

  10. Evaluation of the Application of Artificial Neural Networks and Adaptive Neuro-Fuzzy Inference Systems for Rainfall-Runoff Modelling in Zayandeh_rood Dam Basin

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Mohammad Taghi Dastorani

    2012-01-01

    Full Text Available During recent few decades, due to the importance of the availability of water, and therefore the necesity of predicting run off resulted from rain fall there has been an increase in developing and implementation of new suitable method for prediction of run off using precipitation data. One of these approaches that have been developed in several areas of sciences including water related fields, is soft computing techniques such as artificial neural networks and fuzzy logic systems. This research was designed to evaluate the applicability of artificial neural network and adaptive neuro –fuzzy inference system to model rainfall-runoff process in Zayandeh_rood dam basin. It must be mentioned that, data have been analysed using Wingamma software, to select appropriate type and number of training input data before they can be used in the models. Then, it has been tried to evaluated applicability of artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy techniques to predict runoff generated from daily rainfall. Finally, the accuracy of the results produced by these methods has been compared using statistical criterion. Results taken from this research show that artificial neural networks and neuro-fuzzy technique presented different outputs in different conditions in terms of type and number of inputs variables, but both method have been able to produce acceptable results when suitable input variables and network structures are used.

  11. Retrofitting impervious urban infrastructure with green technology for rainfall-runoff restoration, indirect reuse and pollution load reduction

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sansalone, John; Raje, Saurabh; Kertesz, Ruben; Maccarone, Kerrilynn; Seltzer, Karl; Siminari, Michele; Simms, Peter; Wood, Brandon

    2013-01-01

    The built environs alter hydrology and water resource chemistry. Florida is subject to nutrient criteria and is promulgating “no-net-load-increase” criteria for runoff and constituents (nutrients and particulate matter, PM). With such criteria, green infrastructure, hydrologic restoration, indirect reuse and source control are potential design solutions. The study simulates runoff and constituent load control through urban source area re-design to provide long-term “no-net-load-increases”. A long-term continuous simulation of pre- and post-development response for an existing surface parking facility is quantified. Retrofits include a biofiltration area reactor (BAR) for hydrologic and denitrification control. A linear infiltration reactor (LIR) of cementitious permeable pavement (CPP) provides infiltration, adsorption and filtration. Pavement cleaning provided source control. Simulation of climate and source area data indicates re-design achieves “no-net-load-increases” at lower costs compared to standard construction. The retrofit system yields lower cost per nutrient load treated compared to Best Management Practices (BMPs). -- Continuous simulation of climate and site data demonstrate that urban re-design using green infrastructure can provide long-term “no-net-load-increases” at a lower costs compared to BMPs

  12. Retrofitting impervious urban infrastructure with green technology for rainfall-runoff restoration, indirect reuse and pollution load reduction.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sansalone, John; Raje, Saurabh; Kertesz, Ruben; Maccarone, Kerrilynn; Seltzer, Karl; Siminari, Michele; Simms, Peter; Wood, Brandon

    2013-12-01

    The built environs alter hydrology and water resource chemistry. Florida is subject to nutrient criteria and is promulgating "no-net-load-increase" criteria for runoff and constituents (nutrients and particulate matter, PM). With such criteria, green infrastructure, hydrologic restoration, indirect reuse and source control are potential design solutions. The study simulates runoff and constituent load control through urban source area re-design to provide long-term "no-net-load-increases". A long-term continuous simulation of pre- and post-development response for an existing surface parking facility is quantified. Retrofits include a biofiltration area reactor (BAR) for hydrologic and denitrification control. A linear infiltration reactor (LIR) of cementitious permeable pavement (CPP) provides infiltration, adsorption and filtration. Pavement cleaning provided source control. Simulation of climate and source area data indicates re-design achieves "no-net-load-increases" at lower costs compared to standard construction. The retrofit system yields lower cost per nutrient load treated compared to Best Management Practices (BMPs). Copyright © 2013 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  13. Enhancing a rainfall-runoff model to assess the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on storm runoff.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Ahiablame, Laurent M; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-01-01

    Best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices are increasingly being used as stormwater management techniques to reduce the impacts of urban development on hydrology and water quality. To assist planners and decision-makers at various stages of development projects (planning, implementation, and evaluation), user-friendly tools are needed to assess the effectiveness of BMPs and LID practices. This study describes a simple tool, the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-LID (L-THIA-LID), which is enhanced with additional BMPs and LID practices, improved approaches to estimate hydrology and water quality, and representation of practices in series (meaning combined implementation). The tool was used to evaluate the performance of BMPs and LID practices individually and in series with 30 years of daily rainfall data in four types of idealized land use units and watersheds (low density residential, high density residential, industrial, and commercial). Simulation results were compared with the results of other published studies. The simulated results showed that reductions in runoff volume and pollutant loads after implementing BMPs and LID practices, both individually and in series, were comparable with the observed impacts of these practices. The L-THIA-LID 2.0 model is capable of assisting decision makers in evaluating environmental impacts of BMPs and LID practices, thereby improving the effectiveness of stormwater management decisions. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

  14. Derived flood frequency analysis using different model calibration strategies based on various types of rainfall-runoff data - a comparison

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haberlandt, U.; Radtke, I.

    2013-08-01

    Derived flood frequency analysis allows to estimate design floods with hydrological modelling for poorly observed basins considering change and taking into account flood protection measures. There are several possible choices about precipitation input, discharge output and consequently regarding the calibration of the model. The objective of this study is to compare different calibration strategies for a hydrological model considering various types of rainfall input and runoff output data sets. Event based and continuous observed hourly rainfall data as well as disaggregated daily rainfall and stochastically generated hourly rainfall data are used as input for the model. As output short hourly and longer daily continuous flow time series as well as probability distributions of annual maximum peak flow series are employed. The performance of the strategies is evaluated using the obtained different model parameter sets for continuous simulation of discharge in an independent validation period and by comparing the model derived flood frequency distributions with the observed one. The investigations are carried out for three mesoscale catchments in Northern Germany with the hydrological model HEC-HMS. The results show that: (i) the same type of precipitation input data should be used for calibration and application of the hydrological model, (ii) a model calibrated using a small sample of extreme values works quite well for the simulation of continuous time series with moderate length but not vice versa, (iii) the best performance with small uncertainty is obtained when stochastic precipitation data and the observed probability distribution of peak flows are used for model calibration. This outcome suggests to calibrate a hydrological model directly on probability distributions of observed peak flows using stochastic rainfall as input if its purpose is the application for derived flood frequency analysis.

  15. Operational validation of a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach for the prediction of rainfall-runoff processes in small forest catchments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Choi, H.; Kim, S.

    2012-12-01

    Most of hydrologic models have generally been used to describe and represent the spatio-temporal variability of hydrological processes in the watershed scale. Though it is an obvious fact that hydrological responses have the time varying nature, optimal values of model parameters were normally considered as time invariants or constants in most cases. The recent paper of Choi and Beven (2007) presents a multi-period and multi-criteria model conditioning approach. The approach is based on the equifinality thesis within the Generalised Likelihood Uncertainty Estimation (GLUE) framework. In their application, the behavioural TOPMODEL parameter sets are determined by several performance measures for global (annual) and short (30-days) periods, clustered using a Fuzzy C-means algorithm, into 15 types representing different hydrological conditions. Their study shows a good performance on the calibration of a rainfall-runoff model in a forest catchment, and also gives strong indications that it is uncommon to find model realizations that were behavioural over all multi-periods and all performance measures, and multi-period model conditioning approach may become new effective tool for predictions of hydrological processes in ungauged catchments. This study is a follow-up study on the Choi and Beven's (2007) model conditioning approach to test how the approach is effective for the prediction of rainfall-runoff responses in ungauged catchments. To achieve this purpose, 6 small forest catchments are selected among the several hydrological experimental catchments operated by Korea Forest Research Institute. In each catchment, long-term hydrological time series data varying from 10 to 30 years were available. The areas of the selected catchments range from 13.6 to 37.8 ha, and all areas are covered by coniferous or broad-leaves forests. The selected catchments locate in the southern coastal area to the northern part of South Korea. The bed rocks are Granite gneiss, Granite or

  16. Estimation and comparision of curve numbers based on dynamic land use land cover change, observed rainfall-runoff data and land slope

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deshmukh, Dhananjay Suresh; Chaube, Umesh Chandra; Ekube Hailu, Ambaye; Aberra Gudeta, Dida; Tegene Kassa, Melaku

    2013-06-01

    The CN represents runoff potential is estimated using three different methods for three watersheds namely Barureva, Sher and Umar watershed located in Narmada basin. Among three watersheds, Sher watershed has gauging site for the runoff measurements. The CN computed from the observed rainfall-runoff events is termed as CN(PQ), land use and land cover (LULC) is termed as CN(LU) and the CN based on land slope is termed as SACN2. The estimated annual CN(PQ) varies from 69 to 87 over the 26 years data period with median 74 and average 75. The range of CN(PQ) from 70 to 79 are most significant values and these truly represent the AMC II condition for the Sher watershed. The annual CN(LU) was computed for all three watersheds using GIS and the years are 1973, 1989 and 2000. Satellite imagery of MSS, TM and ETM+ sensors are available for these years and obtained from the Global Land Cover Facility Data Center of Maryland University USA. The computed CN(LU) values show rising trend with the time and this trend is attributed to expansion of agriculture area in all watersheds. The predicted values of CN(LU) with time (year) can be used to predict runoff potential under the effect of change in LULC. Comparison of CN(LU) and CN(PQ) values shows close agreement and it also validates the classification of LULC. The estimation of slope adjusted SA-CN2 shows the significant difference over conventional CN for the hilly forest lands. For the micro watershed planning, SCS-CN method should be modified to incorporate the effect of change in land use and land cover along with effect of land slope.

  17. Estimation of groundwater recharge via percolation outputs from a rainfall/runoff model for the Verlorenvlei estuarine system, west coast, South Africa

    Science.gov (United States)

    Watson, Andrew; Miller, Jodie; Fleischer, Melanie; de Clercq, Willem

    2018-03-01

    Wetlands are conservation priorities worldwide, due to their high biodiversity and productivity, but are under threat from agricultural and climate change stresses. To improve the water management practices and resource allocation in these complex systems, a modelling approach has been developed to estimate potential recharge for data poor catchments using rainfall data and basic assumptions regarding soil and aquifer properties. The Verlorenvlei estuarine lake (RAMSAR #525) on the west coast of South Africa is a data poor catchment where rainfall records have been supplemented with farmer's rainfall records. The catchment has multiple competing users. To determine the ecological reserve for the wetlands, the spatial and temporal distribution of recharge had to be well constrained using the J2000 rainfall/runoff model. The majority of rainfall occurs in the mountains (±650 mm/yr) and considerably less in the valley (±280 mm/yr). Percolation was modelled as ∼3.6% of rainfall in the driest parts of the catchment, ∼10% of rainfall in the moderately wet parts of the catchment and ∼8.4% but up to 28.9% of rainfall in the wettest parts of the catchment. The model results are representative of rainfall and water level measurements in the catchment, and compare well with water table fluctuation technique, although estimates are dissimilar to previous estimates within the catchment. This is most likely due to the daily timestep nature of the model, in comparison to other yearly average methods. These results go some way in understanding the fact that although most semi-arid catchments have very low yearly recharge estimates, they are still capable of sustaining high biodiversity levels. This demonstrates the importance of incorporating shorter term recharge event modeling for improving recharge estimates.

  18. Evaluating the effectiveness of management practices on hydrology and water quality at watershed scale with a rainfall-runoff model.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liu, Yaoze; Bralts, Vincent F; Engel, Bernard A

    2015-04-01

    The adverse influence of urban development on hydrology and water quality can be reduced by applying best management practices (BMPs) and low impact development (LID) practices. This study applied green roof, rain barrel/cistern, bioretention system, porous pavement, permeable patio, grass strip, grassed swale, wetland channel, retention pond, detention basin, and wetland basin, on Crooked Creek watershed. The model was calibrated and validated for annual runoff volume. A framework for simulating BMPs and LID practices at watershed scales was created, and the impacts of BMPs and LID practices on water quantity and water quality were evaluated with the Long-Term Hydrologic Impact Assessment-Low Impact Development 2.1 (L-THIA-LID 2.1) model for 16 scenarios. The various levels and combinations of BMPs/LID practices reduced runoff volume by 0 to 26.47%, Total Nitrogen (TN) by 0.30 to 34.20%, Total Phosphorus (TP) by 0.27 to 47.41%, Total Suspended Solids (TSS) by 0.33 to 53.59%, Lead (Pb) by 0.30 to 60.98%, Biochemical Oxygen Demand (BOD) by 0 to 26.70%, and Chemical Oxygen Demand (COD) by 0 to 27.52%. The implementation of grass strips in 25% of the watershed where this practice could be applied was the most cost-efficient scenario, with cost per unit reduction of $1m3/yr for runoff, while cost for reductions of two pollutants of concern was $445 kg/yr for Total Nitrogen (TN) and $4871 kg/yr for Total Phosphorous (TP). The scenario with very high levels of BMP and LID practice adoption (scenario 15) reduced runoff volume and pollutant loads from 26.47% to 60.98%, and provided the greatest reduction in runoff volume and pollutant loads among all scenarios. However, this scenario was not as cost-efficient as most other scenarios. The L-THIA-LID 2.1 model is a valid tool that can be applied to various locations to help identify cost effective BMP/LID practice plans at watershed scales. Copyright © 2014 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  19. Rainfall-runoff modelling and palaeoflood hydrology applied to reconstruct centennial scale records of flooding and aquifer recharge in ungauged ephemeral rivers

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Benito

    2011-04-01

    Full Text Available In this study we propose a multi-source data approach for quantifying long-term flooding and aquifer recharge in ungauged ephemeral rivers. The methodology is applied to the Buffels River, at 9000 km2 the largest ephemeral river in Namaqualand (NW South Africa, a region with scarce stream flow records limiting research investigating hydrological response to global change. Daily discharge and annual flood series (1965–2006 were estimated from a distributed rainfall-runoff hydrological model (TETIS using rainfall gauge records located within the catchment. The model was calibrated and validated with data collected during a two year monitoring programme (2005–2006 at two stream flow stations, one each in the upper and lower reaches of the catchment. In addition to the modelled flow records, non-systematic flood data were reconstructed using both sedimentary and documentary evidence. The palaeoflood record identified at least 25 large floods during the last 700 yr; with the largest floods reaching a minimum discharge of 255 m3 s−1 (450 yr return period in the upper basin, and 510 m3 s−1 (100 yr return period in the lower catchment. Since AD 1925, the flood hydrology of the Buffels River has been characterised by a decrease in the magnitude and frequency of extreme floods, with palaeoflood discharges (period 1500–1921 five times greater than the largest modelled floods during the period 1965–2006. Large floods generated the highest hydrograph volumes, however their contribution to aquifer recharge is limited as this depends on other factors such as flood duration and storage capacity of the unsaturated zone prior to the flood. Floods having average return intervals of 5–10 yr (120–140 m3 s−1 and flowing for 12 days are able to fully saturate the Spektakel aquifer in the lower Buffels River basin. Alluvial aquifer storage capacity limiting potential recharge

  20. Prediction in Ungauged Basins (PUB) for estimating water availability during water scarcity conditions: rainfall-runoff modelling of the ungauged diversion inflows to the Ridracoli water supply reservoir

    Science.gov (United States)

    Toth, Elena

    2013-04-01

    The Ridracoli reservoir is the main drinking water supply reservoir serving the whole Romagna region, in Northern Italy. Such water supply system has a crucial role in an area where the different characteristics of the communities to be served, their size, the mass tourism and the presence of food industries highlight strong differences in drinking water needs. Its operation allows high quality drinking water supply to a million resident customers, plus a few millions of tourists during the summer of people and it reduces the need for water pumping from underground sources, and this is particularly important since the coastal area is subject also to subsidence and saline ingression into aquifers. The system experienced water shortage conditions thrice in the last decade, in 2002, in 2007 and in autumn-winter 2011-2012, when the reservoir water storage fell below the attention and the pre-emergency thresholds, thus prompting the implementation of a set of mitigation measures, including limitations to the population's water consumption. The reservoir receives water not only from the headwater catchment, closed at the dam, but also from four diversion watersheds, linked to the reservoir through an underground water channel. Such withdrawals are currently undersized, abstracting only a part of the streamflow exceeding the established minimum flows, due to the design of the water intake structures; it is therefore crucial understanding how the reservoir water availability might be increased through a fuller exploitation of the existing diversion catchment area. Since one of the four diversion catchment is currently ungauged (at least at the fine temporal scale needed for keeping into account the minimum flow requirements downstream of the intakes), the study first presents the set up and parameterisation of a continuous rainfall-runoff model at hourly time-step for the three gauged diversion watersheds and for the headwater catchment: a regional parameterisation

  1. An investigation of the effects of an arterial drainage scheme on the rainfall-runoff transformation behaviour of the Brosna catchment in Ireland

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bhattarai, K. P.; O'Connor, K. M.

    2003-04-01

    Inefficient natural land drainage and the consequent frequent flooding of rivers are a problem of particular significance to the Irish economy. Such problems can be attributed less to the amount of annual rainfall, than to the topological configuration of Ireland. Its high maritime rim and relatively flat interior results in poor river gradients, intercepted by many lakes. As a remedial measure to tackle these problems, Arterial Drainage Schemes (ADSs) were started in Ireland from as early as the beginning of the nineteenth century. The major activities carried out under ADSs have been the deepening and widening of channels to increase their discharge-carrying capacity, which naturally affected the hydrological behaviour of the catchments involved. Earlier studies carried out in order to assess the effects of such ADSs on the hydrological behaviour of Irish catchments were concentrated mainly on comparisons of unit hydrographs and relationship between flood peaks of pre- and post-drainage periods. The present study, carried out on the River Brosna catchment in Ireland, concentrates on assessing the changes in the rainfall runoff transformation process, by using the conceptual Soil Moisture Accounting and Routing Model (SMAR), one of the constituent models of the "Galway River Flow Modelling and Forecasting System (GFMFS)" software package. Hydro-meteorological data of the pre-drainage (1942--1947) and post-drainage (1954--2000) periods have been used in this study. The results of the present study show that, for similar patterns of rainfall, the catchment produces higher annual maximum daily flows, and lower annual minimum daily flows in the post-drainage period than in the pre-drainage period. Moreover, the post-drainage unit hydrographs are more "peaky" and have quicker recessions than the pre-drainage counterparts, thus confirming the findings of the earlier studies. It is also observed that, apart from the expected pre-to-post-drainage change, the nature of the

  2. A survey of simulators for palpation training.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Yan; Phillips, Roger; Ward, James; Pisharody, Sandhya

    2009-01-01

    Palpation is a widely used diagnostic method in medical practice. The sensitivity of palpation is highly dependent upon the skill of clinicians, which is often difficult to master. There is a need of simulators in palpation training. This paper summarizes important work and the latest achievements in simulation for palpation training. Three types of simulators; physical models, Virtual Reality (VR) based simulations, and hybrid (computerized and physical) simulators, are surveyed. Comparisons among different kinds of simulators are presented.

  3. Medical Simulation Practices 2010 Survey Results

    Science.gov (United States)

    McCrindle, Jeffrey J.

    2011-01-01

    Medical Simulation Centers are an essential component of our learning infrastructure to prepare doctors and nurses for their careers. Unlike the military and aerospace simulation industry, very little has been published regarding the best practices currently in use within medical simulation centers. This survey attempts to provide insight into the current simulation practices at medical schools, hospitals, university nursing programs and community college nursing programs. Students within the MBA program at Saint Joseph's University conducted a survey of medical simulation practices during the summer 2010 semester. A total of 115 institutions responded to the survey. The survey resus discuss overall effectiveness of current simulation centers as well as the tools and techniques used to conduct the simulation activity

  4. Concentrations of Polycyclic Aromatic Hydrocarbons (PAHs) and Major and Trace Elements in Simulated Rainfall Runoff from Parking Lots, Austin, Texas, 2003

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Mahler, Barbara J; Van Metre, Peter C; Wilson, Jennifer T

    2004-01-01

    Samples of creek bed sediment collected near seal-coated parking lots in Austin, Texas, by the City of Austin during 2001-02 had unusually elevated concentrations of polycyclic aromatic hydrocarbons (PAHs...

  5. Numerical simulation of runoff from extreme rainfall events in a mountain water catchment

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. Burguete

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available A numerical model for unsteady shallow water flow over initially dry areas is applied to a case study in a small drainage area at the Spanish Ebro River basin. Several flood mitigation measures (reforestation, construction of a small reservoir and channelization are simulated in the model in order to compare different extreme rainfall-runoff scenarios.

  6. Near-Earth Object Survey Simulation Software

    Science.gov (United States)

    Naidu, Shantanu P.; Chesley, Steven R.; Farnocchia, Davide

    2017-10-01

    There is a significant interest in Near-Earth objects (NEOs) because they pose an impact threat to Earth, offer valuable scientific information, and are potential targets for robotic and human exploration. The number of NEO discoveries has been rising rapidly over the last two decades with over 1800 being discovered last year, making the total number of known NEOs >16000. Pan-STARRS and the Catalina Sky Survey are currently the most prolific NEO surveys, having discovered >1600 NEOs between them in 2016. As next generation surveys such as Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST) and the proposed Near-Earth Object Camera (NEOCam) become operational in the next decade, the discovery rate is expected to increase tremendously. Coordination between various survey telescopes will be necessary in order to optimize NEO discoveries and create a unified global NEO discovery network. We are collaborating on a community-based, open-source software project to simulate asteroid surveys to facilitate such coordination and develop strategies for improving discovery efficiency. Our effort so far has focused on development of a fast and efficient tool capable of accepting user-defined asteroid population models and telescope parameters such as a list of pointing angles and camera field-of-view, and generating an output list of detectable asteroids. The software takes advantage of the widely used and tested SPICE library and architecture developed by NASA’s Navigation and Ancillary Information Facility (Acton, 1996) for saving and retrieving asteroid trajectories and camera pointing. Orbit propagation is done using OpenOrb (Granvik et al. 2009) but future versions will allow the user to plug in a propagator of their choice. The software allows the simulation of both ground-based and space-based surveys. Performance is being tested using the Grav et al. (2011) asteroid population model and the LSST simulated survey “enigma_1189”.

  7. Modelling rainfall runoff relations using HEC-HMS in a semi-arid region: Case study in Ain Sefra watershed, Ksour Mountains (SW Algeria)

    OpenAIRE

    Derdour Abdessamed; Bouanani Abderrazak; Babahamed Kamila

    2018-01-01

    Ain Sefra is one of the Algerian cities that had been experienced several devastating floods during the past 100 years. The purpose of this study is to simulate runoff in the semi-arid region of Ain Sefra watershed through the employing of the Hydrologic Engineering Center – Hydrologic Modelling System (HEC-HMS). In this paper, the frequency storm is used for the meteorological model, the Soil Conservation Service – curve number (SCS-CN) is selected to calculate the loss rate and Soil Conserv...

  8. Analysis of the sensitivity to rainfall spatio-temporal variability of an operational urban rainfall-runoff model in a multifractal framework

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gires, A.; Tchiguirinskaia, I.; Schertzer, D. J.; Lovejoy, S.

    2011-12-01

    In large urban areas, storm water management is a challenge with enlarging impervious areas. Many cities have implemented real time control (RTC) of their urban drainage system to either reduce overflow or limit urban contamination. A basic component of RTC is hydraulic/hydrologic model. In this paper we use the multifractal framework to suggest an innovative way to test the sensitivity of such a model to the spatio-temporal variability of its rainfall input. Indeed the rainfall variability is often neglected in urban context, being considered as a non-relevant issue at the scales involve. Our results show that on the contrary the rainfall variability should be taken into account. Universal multifractals (UM) rely on the concept of multiplicative cascade and are a standard tool to analyze and simulate with a reduced number of parameters geophysical processes that are extremely variable over a wide range of scales. This study is conducted on a 3 400 ha urban area located in Seine-Saint-Denis, in the North of Paris (France). We use the operational semi-distributed model that was calibrated by the local authority (Direction Eau et Assainnissement du 93) that is in charge of urban drainage. The rainfall data comes from the C-Band radar of Trappes operated by Météo-France. The rainfall event of February 9th, 2009 was used. A stochastic ensemble approach was implemented to quantify the uncertainty on discharge associated to the rainfall variability occurring at scales smaller than 1 km x 1 km x 5 min that is usually available with C-band radar networks. An analysis of the quantiles of the simulated peak flow showed that the uncertainty exceeds 20 % for upstream links. To evaluate a potential gain from a direct use of the rainfall data available at the resolution of X-band radar, we performed similar analysis of the rainfall fields of the degraded resolution of 9 km x 9 km x 20 min. The results show a clear decrease in uncertainty when the original resolution of C

  9. Rainfall, runoff, and water-quality data for the urban storm-water program in the Albuquerque, New Mexico, metropolitan area, water year 2004

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kelly, Todd; Romero, Orlando; Jimenez, Mike

    2006-01-01

    Urbanization has dramatically increased precipitation runoff to the system of drainage channels and natural stream channels in the Albuquerque, New Mexico, metropolitan area. Rainfall and runoff data are important for planning and designing future storm-water conveyance channels in newly developing areas. Storm-water quality also is monitored in accordance with the National Pollutant Discharge Elimination System mandated by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. The Albuquerque Metropolitan Arroyo Flood Control Authority, the City of Albuquerque, and the U.S. Geological Survey began a cooperative program to collect hydrologic data to assist in assessing the quality and quantity of surface-water resources in the Albuquerque area. This report presents water-quality, streamflow, and rainfall data collected from October 1, 2003, to September 30, 2004 (water year 2004). Also provided is a station analysis for each of the 18 streamflow-gaging sites and 39 rainfall-gaging sites, which includes a description of monitoring equipment, problems associated with data collection during the year, and other information used to compute streamflow discharges or rainfall records. A hydrographic comparison shows the effects that the largest drainage channel in the metropolitan area, the North Floodway Channel, has on total flow in the Rio Grande.

  10. Computational Intelligence in Rainfall-Runoff Modeling

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    De Vos, N.J.

    2009-01-01

    The transformation from precipitation over a river basin to river streamflow is the result of many interacting processes which manifest themselves at various scales of time and space. The resulting complexity of hydrological systems, and the difficulty to properly and quantitatively express the

  11. The value of oxygen-isotope data and multiple discharge records in calibrating a fully-distributed, physically-based rainfall-runoff model (CRUM3) to improve predictive capability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Neill, Aaron; Reaney, Sim

    2015-04-01

    Fully-distributed, physically-based rainfall-runoff models attempt to capture some of the complexity of the runoff processes that operate within a catchment, and have been used to address a variety of issues including water quality and the effect of climate change on flood frequency. Two key issues are prevalent, however, which call into question the predictive capability of such models. The first is the issue of parameter equifinality which can be responsible for large amounts of uncertainty. The second is whether such models make the right predictions for the right reasons - are the processes operating within a catchment correctly represented, or do the predictive abilities of these models result only from the calibration process? The use of additional data sources, such as environmental tracers, has been shown to help address both of these issues, by allowing for multi-criteria model calibration to be undertaken, and by permitting a greater understanding of the processes operating in a catchment and hence a more thorough evaluation of how well catchment processes are represented in a model. Using discharge and oxygen-18 data sets, the ability of the fully-distributed, physically-based CRUM3 model to represent the runoff processes in three sub-catchments in Cumbria, NW England has been evaluated. These catchments (Morland, Dacre and Pow) are part of the of the River Eden demonstration test catchment project. The oxygen-18 data set was firstly used to derive transit-time distributions and mean residence times of water for each of the catchments to gain an integrated overview of the types of processes that were operating. A generalised likelihood uncertainty estimation procedure was then used to calibrate the CRUM3 model for each catchment based on a single discharge data set from each catchment. Transit-time distributions and mean residence times of water obtained from the model using the top 100 behavioural parameter sets for each catchment were then compared to

  12. Temporal variation of transit time of rainfall-runoff water and groundwater flow dynamics inferred by noble gasses concentration (SF6, CFCs) in a forested small catchment (Fukushima, Japan)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sakakibara, Koichi; Tsujimura, Maki; Onda, Yuichi; Iwagami, Sho; Konuma, Ryohei; Sato, Yutaro

    2016-04-01

    Time variant transit time of water in catchments can fundamentally describe catchment function, controlling rainfall-runoff generation, groundwater flow pathway and water storage. Though rainstorm event has been recognized as active phase on catchment hydrology, accurate and precise time variance of water transit time and related water dynamics during rainstorm have not been well clarified yet. Here, in order to reveal temporal variation of mean transit time of groundwater and related hydrological processes in a forested small catchment during rainstorm event, periodic and intensive field observations (15 - 17th July 2015, rainfall of 100.8 mm in total) were conducted in Yamakiya district (Fukushima, Japan) from September 2014 to December 2015. Discharge volume, groundwater table and precipitation amount were measured in 10 minutes interval. Water samples were taken from groundwater, discharge water, soil water and precipitation for determination of stable isotopic compositions (δ18O, δ2H), inorganic solutes concentration and dissolved noble gasses concentration (CFC11, CFC12, CFC113, SF6) in water. Storm hydrograph and groundwater table clearly responded to rainfall event especially with more than 30 mm per day throughout monitoring period. According to SF6 concentration in water, the mean transit time of discharge water (perennial spring) showed 3 - 6.5 years in the no-rainfall period (steady state), but fluctuated from zero to 12.5 years in the rainstorm event with totally 100.8 mm (unsteady state). The mean transit time of discharge water dramatically altered from zero to 12.5 years from before to after the tentative hydrograph peak in the rising limb, indicating new water components were dominant before tentative hydrograph peak, whereas deep groundwater component with longer residence time contributed much to discharge after the tentative hydrograph peak. On the other hand, mean residence time of groundwater (water in 5 m well) ranged from 0.5 to 11.5 years

  13. Supply chain simulation tools and techniques: a survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2005-01-01

    The main contribution of this paper is twofold: it surveys different types of simulation for supply chain management; it discusses several methodological issues. These different types of simulation are spreadsheet simulation, system dynamics, discrete-event simulation and business games. Which

  14. Simulating the Performance of Ground-Based Optical Asteroid Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Christensen, Eric J.; Shelly, Frank C.; Gibbs, Alex R.; Grauer, Albert D.; Hill, Richard E.; Johnson, Jess A.; Kowalski, Richard A.; Larson, Stephen M.

    2014-11-01

    We are developing a set of asteroid survey simulation tools in order to estimate the capability of existing and planned ground-based optical surveys, and to test a variety of possible survey cadences and strategies. The survey simulator is composed of several layers, including a model population of solar system objects and an orbital integrator, a site-specific atmospheric model (including inputs for seeing, haze and seasonal cloud cover), a model telescope (with a complete optical path to estimate throughput), a model camera (including FOV, pixel scale, and focal plane fill factor) and model source extraction and moving object detection layers with tunable detection requirements. We have also developed a flexible survey cadence planning tool to automatically generate nightly survey plans. Inputs to the cadence planner include camera properties (FOV, readout time), telescope limits (horizon, declination, hour angle, lunar and zenithal avoidance), preferred and restricted survey regions in RA/Dec, ecliptic, and Galactic coordinate systems, and recent coverage by other asteroid surveys. Simulated surveys are created for a subset of current and previous NEO surveys (LINEAR, Pan-STARRS and the three Catalina Sky Survey telescopes), and compared against the actual performance of these surveys in order to validate the model’s performance. The simulator tracks objects within the FOV of any pointing that were not discovered (e.g. too few observations, too trailed, focal plane array gaps, too fast or slow), thus dividing the population into “discoverable” and “discovered” subsets, to inform possible survey design changes. Ongoing and future work includes generating a realistic “known” subset of the model NEO population, running multiple independent simulated surveys in coordinated and uncoordinated modes, and testing various cadences to find optimal strategies for detecting NEO sub-populations. These tools can also assist in quantifying the efficiency of novel

  15. Developing Cognitive Models for Social Simulation from Survey Data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alt, Jonathan K.; Lieberman, Stephen

    The representation of human behavior and cognition continues to challenge the modeling and simulation community. The use of survey and polling instruments to inform belief states, issue stances and action choice models provides a compelling means of developing models and simulations with empirical data. Using these types of data to population social simulations can greatly enhance the feasibility of validation efforts, the reusability of social and behavioral modeling frameworks, and the testable reliability of simulations. We provide a case study demonstrating these effects, document the use of survey data to develop cognitive models, and suggest future paths forward for social and behavioral modeling.

  16. SLiM : an improved soil moisture balance method to simulate runoff and potential groundwater recharge processes using spatio-temporal weather and catchment characteristics

    OpenAIRE

    Wang, Lei; Barkwith, Andrew; Jackson, Christopher; Ellis, Michael

    2012-01-01

    The numerical modelling of runoff and groundwater recharge plays an important role in water resource management. The methodologies developed for these simulations should represent the key physical processes, and be applicable in a wide variety of climates for routine simulations using readily available field information. This paper describes the development of a Soil and Landuse based rainfall-runoff and recharge Model (SLiM) based on Rushton’s method – a single soil layer groundwater recharg...

  17. Simulation of deep one- and two-dimensional redshift surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Park, Changbom; Gott, J.R. III

    1991-01-01

    We show that slice or pencil-beam redshift surveys of galaxies can be simulated in a box with non-equal sides. This method saves a lot of computer time and memory while providing essentially the same results as from whole-cube simulations. A 2457.6-h -1 Mpc-long rod (out to a redshift z = 0.58 in two opposite directions) is simulated using the standard biased Cold Dark Matter model as an example to mimic the recent deep pencil-beam surveys by Broadhurst et al. The structures (spikes) we see in these simulated samples occur when the narrow pencil-beam pierces walls, filaments and clusters appearing randomly along the line-of-sight. We have applied a statistical test for goodness of fit to a periodic lattice to the observations and the simulations. (author)

  18. Simulation in Canadian postgraduate emergency medicine training - a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Russell, Evan; Hall, Andrew Koch; Hagel, Carly; Petrosoniak, Andrew; Dagnone, Jeffrey Damon; Howes, Daniel

    2018-01-01

    Simulation-based education (SBE) is an important training strategy in emergency medicine (EM) postgraduate programs. This study sought to characterize the use of simulation in FRCPC-EM residency programs across Canada. A national survey was administered to residents and knowledgeable program representatives (PRs) at all Canadian FRCPC-EM programs. Survey question themes included simulation program characteristics, the frequency of resident participation, the location and administration of SBE, institutional barriers, interprofessional involvement, content, assessment strategies, and attitudes about SBE. Resident and PR response rates were 63% (203/321) and 100% (16/16), respectively. Residents reported a median of 20 (range 0-150) hours of annual simulation training, with 52% of residents indicating that the time dedicated to simulation training met their needs. PRs reported the frequency of SBE sessions ranging from weekly to every 6 months, with 15 (94%) programs having an established simulation curriculum. Two (13%) of the programs used simulation for resident assessment, although 15 (94%) of PRs indicated that they would be comfortable with simulation-based assessment. The most common PR-identified barriers to administering simulation were a lack of protected faculty time (75%) and a lack of faculty experience with simulation (56%). Interprofessional involvement in simulation was strongly valued by both residents and PRs. SBE is frequently used by Canadian FRCPC-EM residency programs. However, there exists considerable variability in the structure, frequency, and timing of simulation-based activities. As programs transition to competency-based medical education, national organizations and collaborations should consider the variability in how SBE is administered.

  19. Simulation of deep one- and two-dimensional redshift surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Park, Changbom; Gott, J. Richard, III

    1991-03-01

    It is shown that slice or pencil-beam redshift surveys of galaxies can be simulated in a box with nonequal sides. This method saves a lot of computer time and memory while providing essentially the same results as from whole-cube simulations. A 2457.6/h Mpc-long rod (out to a redshift z = 0.58 in two opposite directions) is simulated using the standard biased cold dark matter model as an example to mimic the recent deep pencil-beam surveys by Broadhurst et al. (1990). The structures (spikes) seen in these simulated samples occur when the narrow pencil-beam pierces walls, filaments, and clusters appearing randomly along the line-of-sight. A statistical test for goodness of fit to a periodic lattice has been applied to the observations and the simulations. It is found that the statistical significance level (P = 15.4 percent) is not strong enough to reject the null hypothesis that the observations and the simulations were drawn at random from the same set.

  20. Status of simulation in health care education: an international survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Qayumi, Karim; Pachev, George; Zheng, Bin; Ziv, Amitai; Koval, Valentyna; Badiei, Sadia; Cheng, Adam

    2014-01-01

    Simulation is rapidly penetrating the terrain of health care education and has gained growing acceptance as an educational method and patient safety tool. Despite this, the state of simulation in health care education has not yet been evaluated on a global scale. In this project, we studied the global status of simulation in health care education by determining the degree of financial support, infrastructure, manpower, information technology capabilities, engagement of groups of learners, and research and scholarly activities, as well as the barriers, strengths, opportunities for growth, and other aspects of simulation in health care education. We utilized a two-stage process, including an online survey and a site visit that included interviews and debriefings. Forty-two simulation centers worldwide participated in this study, the results of which show that despite enormous interest and enthusiasm in the health care community, use of simulation in health care education is limited to specific areas and is not a budgeted item in many institutions. Absence of a sustainable business model, as well as sufficient financial support in terms of budget, infrastructure, manpower, research, and scholarly activities, slows down the movement of simulation. Specific recommendations are made based on current findings to support simulation in the next developmental stages. PMID:25489254

  1. CALIBRATED ULTRA FAST IMAGE SIMULATIONS FOR THE DARK ENERGY SURVEY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bruderer, Claudio; Chang, Chihway; Refregier, Alexandre; Amara, Adam; Bergé, Joel; Gamper, Lukas, E-mail: claudio.bruderer@phys.ethz.ch [Institute for Astronomy, Department of Physics, ETH Zurich, Wolfgang-Pauli-Strasse 27, 8093 Zürich (Switzerland)

    2016-01-20

    Image simulations are becoming increasingly important in understanding the measurement process of the shapes of galaxies for weak lensing and the associated systematic effects. For this purpose we present the first implementation of the Monte Carlo Control Loops (MCCL), a coherent framework for studying systematic effects in weak lensing. It allows us to model and calibrate the shear measurement process using image simulations from the Ultra Fast Image Generator (UFig) and the image analysis software SExtractor. We apply this framework to a subset of the data taken during the Science Verification period (SV) of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). We calibrate the UFig simulations to be statistically consistent with one of the SV images, which covers ∼0.5 square degrees. We then perform tolerance analyses by perturbing six simulation parameters and study their impact on the shear measurement at the one-point level. This allows us to determine the relative importance of different parameters. For spatially constant systematic errors and point-spread function, the calibration of the simulation reaches the weak lensing precision needed for the DES SV survey area. Furthermore, we find a sensitivity of the shear measurement to the intrinsic ellipticity distribution, and an interplay between the magnitude-size and the pixel value diagnostics in constraining the noise model. This work is the first application of the MCCL framework to data and shows how it can be used to methodically study the impact of systematics on the cosmic shear measurement.

  2. A survey of electric and hybrid vehicle simulation programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevan, J.; Heimburger, D. A.; Metcalfe, M. A.

    1978-01-01

    Results of a survey conducted within the United States to determine the extent of development and capabilities of automotive performance simulation programs suitable for electric and hybrid vehicle studies are summarized. Altogether, 111 programs were identified as being in a usable state. The complexity of the existing programs spans a range from a page of simple desktop calculator instructions to 300,000 lines of a high-level programming language. The capability to simulate electric vehicles was most common, heat-engines second, and hybrid vehicles least common. Batch-operated programs are slightly more common than interactive ones, and one-third can be operated in either mode. The most commonly used language was FORTRAN, the language typically used by engineers. The higher-level simulation languages (e.g. SIMSCRIPT, GPSS, SIMULA) used by "model builders" were conspicuously lacking.

  3. Continuous state-space representation of a bucket-type rainfall-runoff model: a case study with the GR4 model using state-space GR4 (version 1.0

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    L. Santos

    2018-04-01

    Full Text Available In many conceptual rainfall–runoff models, the water balance differential equations are not explicitly formulated. These differential equations are solved sequentially by splitting the equations into terms that can be solved analytically with a technique called operator splitting. As a result, only the solutions of the split equations are used to present the different models. This article provides a methodology to make the governing water balance equations of a bucket-type rainfall–runoff model explicit and to solve them continuously. This is done by setting up a comprehensive state-space representation of the model. By representing it in this way, the operator splitting, which makes the structural analysis of the model more complex, could be removed. In this state-space representation, the lag functions (unit hydrographs, which are frequent in rainfall–runoff models and make the resolution of the representation difficult, are first replaced by a so-called Nash cascade and then solved with a robust numerical integration technique. To illustrate this methodology, the GR4J model is taken as an example. The substitution of the unit hydrographs with a Nash cascade, even if it modifies the model behaviour when solved using operator splitting, does not modify it when the state-space representation is solved using an implicit integration technique. Indeed, the flow time series simulated by the new representation of the model are very similar to those simulated by the classic model. The use of a robust numerical technique that approximates a continuous-time model also improves the lag parameter consistency across time steps and provides a more time-consistent model with time-independent parameters.

  4. SUPERNOVA SIMULATIONS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE DARK ENERGY SURVEY

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Bernstein, J. P.; Kuhlmann, S.; Biswas, R.; Kovacs, E.; Crane, I.; Hufford, T. [Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Lemont, IL 60439 (United States); Kessler, R.; Frieman, J. A. [Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago, 5640 South Ellis Avenue, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Aldering, G.; Kim, A. G.; Nugent, P. [E. O. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); D' Andrea, C. B.; Nichol, R. C. [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Dennis Sciama Building, Burnaby Road, Portsmouth PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Finley, D. A.; Marriner, J.; Reis, R. R. R. [Center for Particle Astrophysics, Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, P.O. Box 500, Batavia, IL 60510 (United States); Jarvis, M. J. [Centre for Astrophysics, Science and Technology Research Institute, University of Hertfordshire, Hatfield, Herts AL10 9AB (United Kingdom); Mukherjee, P.; Parkinson, D. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, Pevensey 2 Building, University of Sussex, Falmer, Brighton BN1 9QH (United Kingdom); Sako, M. [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, 203 South 33rd Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States); and others

    2012-07-10

    We present an analysis of supernova light curves simulated for the upcoming Dark Energy Survey (DES) supernova search. The simulations employ a code suite that generates and fits realistic light curves in order to obtain distance modulus/redshift pairs that are passed to a cosmology fitter. We investigated several different survey strategies including field selection, supernova selection biases, and photometric redshift measurements. Using the results of this study, we chose a 30 deg{sup 2} search area in the griz filter set. We forecast (1) that this survey will provide a homogeneous sample of up to 4000 Type Ia supernovae in the redshift range 0.05

  5. SUPERNOVA SIMULATIONS AND STRATEGIES FOR THE DARK ENERGY SURVEY

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bernstein, J. P.; Kuhlmann, S.; Biswas, R.; Kovacs, E.; Crane, I.; Hufford, T.; Kessler, R.; Frieman, J. A.; Aldering, G.; Kim, A. G.; Nugent, P.; D'Andrea, C. B.; Nichol, R. C.; Finley, D. A.; Marriner, J.; Reis, R. R. R.; Jarvis, M. J.; Mukherjee, P.; Parkinson, D.; Sako, M.

    2012-01-01

    We present an analysis of supernova light curves simulated for the upcoming Dark Energy Survey (DES) supernova search. The simulations employ a code suite that generates and fits realistic light curves in order to obtain distance modulus/redshift pairs that are passed to a cosmology fitter. We investigated several different survey strategies including field selection, supernova selection biases, and photometric redshift measurements. Using the results of this study, we chose a 30 deg 2 search area in the griz filter set. We forecast (1) that this survey will provide a homogeneous sample of up to 4000 Type Ia supernovae in the redshift range 0.05 < z < 1.2 and (2) that the increased red efficiency of the DES camera will significantly improve high-redshift color measurements. The redshift of each supernova with an identified host galaxy will be obtained from spectroscopic observations of the host. A supernova spectrum will be obtained for a subset of the sample, which will be utilized for control studies. In addition, we have investigated the use of combined photometric redshifts taking into account data from both the host and supernova. We have investigated and estimated the likely contamination from core-collapse supernovae based on photometric identification, and have found that a Type Ia supernova sample purity of up to 98% is obtainable given specific assumptions. Furthermore, we present systematic uncertainties due to sample purity, photometric calibration, dust extinction priors, filter-centroid shifts, and inter-calibration. We conclude by estimating the uncertainty on the cosmological parameters that will be measured from the DES supernova data.

  6. Simulation of Telescope Detectivity for Geo Survey and Tracking

    Science.gov (United States)

    Richard, P.

    2014-09-01

    As the number of space debris on Earths Orbit increases steadily, the need to survey, track and catalogue them becomes of key importance. In this context, CNES has been using the TAROT Telescopes (Rapid Telescopes for Transient Objects owned and operated by CNRS) for several years to conduct studies about space surveillance and tracking. Today, two testbeds of services using the TAROT telescopes are running every night: one for GEO situational awareness and the second for debris tracking. Additionally to the CNES research activity on space surveillance and tracking domain, an operational collision avoidance service for LEO and GEO satellites is in place at CNES for several years. This service named CAESAR (Conjunction Analysis and Evaluation: Alerts and Recommendations) is used by CNES as well as by external customers. As the optical debris tracking testbed based on TAROT telescopes is the first step toward an operational provider of GEO measures that could be used by CAESAR, simulations have been done to help choosing the sites and types of telescopes that could be added in the GEO survey and debris tracking telescope network. One of the distinctive characteristics of the optical observation of space debris compared to traditional astronomic observation is the need to observe objects at low elevations. The two mains reasons for this are the need to observe the GEO belt from non-equatorial sites and the need to observe debris at longitudes far from the telescope longitude. This paper presents the results of simulations of the detectivity for GEO debris of various telescopes and sites, based on models of the GEO belt, the atmosphere and the instruments. One of the conclusions is that clever detection of faint streaks and spread sources by image processing is one of the major keys to improve the detection of debris on the GEO belt.

  7. Conditional flood frequency and catchment state: a simulation approach

    Science.gov (United States)

    Brettschneider, Marco; Bourgin, François; Merz, Bruno; Andreassian, Vazken; Blaquiere, Simon

    2017-04-01

    Catchments have memory and the conditional flood frequency distribution for a time period ahead can be seen as non-stationary: it varies with the catchment state and climatic factors. From a risk management perspective, understanding the link of conditional flood frequency to catchment state is a key to anticipate potential periods of higher flood risk. Here, we adopt a simulation approach to explore the link between flood frequency obtained by continuous rainfall-runoff simulation and the initial state of the catchment. The simulation chain is based on i) a three state rainfall generator applied at the catchment scale, whose parameters are estimated for each month, and ii) the GR4J lumped rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters are calibrated with all available data. For each month, a large number of stochastic realizations of the continuous rainfall generator for the next 12 months are used as inputs for the GR4J model in order to obtain a large number of stochastic realizations for the next 12 months. This process is then repeated for 50 different initial states of the soil moisture reservoir of the GR4J model and for all the catchments. Thus, 50 different conditional flood frequency curves are obtained for the 50 different initial catchment states. We will present an analysis of the link between the catchment states, the period of the year and the strength of the conditioning of the flood frequency compared to the unconditional flood frequency. A large sample of diverse catchments in France will be used.

  8. Quantifying rainfall-runoff relationships on the Mieso Hypo Calcic ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    2012-04-17

    Apr 17, 2012 ... and 2004 on 2 m x 2 m plots provided with a runoff measuring system, and replicated 3 times for each treatment. There were 2 treatments: .... a Tukulu form soil (Soil Classification Working Group, 1991) at. Glen. Details about the .... intervals by an automatic tipping-bucket rain gauge (Hobo. Event (C) Onset ...

  9. Regional Analysis of Conceptual Rainfall Runoff Models for Runoff ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    Journal of Civil Engineering Research and Practice. Journal Home · ABOUT THIS JOURNAL · Advanced Search · Current Issue · Archives · Journal Home > Vol 2, No 1 (2005) >. Log in or Register to get access to full text downloads.

  10. Real Time Updating in Distributed Urban Rainfall Runoff Modelling

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Borup, Morten; Madsen, Henrik

    that are being updated from system measurements was studied. The results showed that the fact alone that it takes time for rainfall data to travel the distance between gauges and catchments has such a big negative effect on the forecast skill of updated models, that it can justify the choice of even very...... as in a real data case study. The results confirmed that the method is indeed suitable for DUDMs and that it can be used to utilise upstream as well as downstream water level and flow observations to improve model estimates and forecasts. Due to upper and lower sensor limits many sensors in urban drainage...

  11. Live defibrillation in simulation-based medical education--a survey of simulation center practices and attitudes.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turban, Joseph W; Peters, Deborah P; Berg, Benjamin W

    2010-02-01

    Resuscitation from cardiac arrhythmia, requiring cardioversion/defibrillation is a common simulation training scenario. Use of live defibrillation enhances simulation fidelity but is not without risk. This survey was conducted to describe the prevalence of live defibrillation use during training scenarios in healthcare simulation centers, and when used, if safety training was required before using live defibrillation. A convenience sample of attendees at the 7th annual International Meeting on Simulation in Healthcare (January 2007) was surveyed using a closed-ended 23-item survey instrument. Survey domains included responder and simulation center demographics, simulation center defibrillation safety policies, and attitudes toward defibrillation practices in simulation training environments. Fifty-seven individuals representing 39 simulation centers returned surveys, 29 of which were in the United States. Live defibrillation was used in 35 of the 39 centers (90%). A defibrillation safety training policy was in effect at 14 of 39 centers (36%). Formal training before using live defibrillation was considered necessary by 48 of 55 responders (87%). Forty-eight of 54 responders (89%) strongly agreed or agreed with the statement, "I feel using live defibrillation plays an important role in simulation-based education." Although most responders consider use of live defibrillation important and believe formal defibrillator safety training should be conducted before use, only about one third of the centers had a training policy in effect. It remains to be determined whether safety training before the use of live defibrillation during simulation-based education increases user safety.

  12. A survey of modelling methods for high-fidelity wind farm simulations using large eddy simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breton, Simon-Philippe; Sumner, J.; Sørensen, Jens Nørkær

    2017-01-01

    surveys the most common schemes available to model the rotor, atmospheric conditions and terrain effects within current state-of-the-art LES codes, of which an overview is provided. A summary of the experimental research data available for validation of LES codes within the context of single and multiple......Large eddy simulations (LES) of wind farms have the capability to provide valuable and detailed information about the dynamics of wind turbine wakes. For this reason, their use within the wind energy research community is on the rise, spurring the development of new models and methods. This review...

  13. Preparing for the WFIRST Microlensing Survey: Simulations, Requirements, Survey Strategies, and Precursor Observations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gaudi, Bernard

    As one of the four primary investigations of the Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission, the microlensing survey will monitor several square degrees of the Galactic bulge for a total of roughly one year. Its primary science goal is to "Complete the statistical census of planetary systems in the Galaxy, from the outer habitable zone to free floating planets, including analogs of all of the planets in our Solar System with the mass of Mars or greater.'' WFIRST will therefore (a) measure the mass function of cold bound planets with masses greater than that of roughly twice the mass of the moon, including providing an estimate of the frequency of sub-Mars-mass embryos, (b) determine the frequency of free-floating planets with masses down to the Earth and below, (c) inform the frequency and habitability of potentially habitable worlds, and (d) revolutionize our understanding of the demographics of cold planets with its exquisite sensitivity to, and large expected yield of, planets in a broad and unexplored region of parameter space. In order for the microlensing survey to be successful, we must develop a plan to go from actual survey observations obtained by the WFIRST telescope and hardware to the final science products. This plan will involve many steps, the development of software, data reduction, and analysis tools at each step, and a list of requirements for each of these components. The overarching goal of this proposal is thus to develop a complete flowdown from the science goals of the microlensing survey to the mission design and hardware components. We have assembled a team of scientists with the breadth of expertise to achieve this primary goal. Our specific subgoals are as follows. Goal 1: We will refine the input Galactic models in order to provide improved microlensing event rates in the WFIRST fields. Goal 2: We will use the improved event rate estimates, along with improvements in our simulation methodology, to provide higher

  14. A survey of electric and hybrid vehicles simulation programs. Volume 2: Questionnaire responses

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bevan, J.; Heimburger, D. A.; Metcalfe, M. A.

    1978-01-01

    The data received in a survey conducted within the United States to determine the extent of development and capabilities of automotive performance simulation programs suitable for electric and hybrid vehicle studies are presented. The survey was conducted for the Department of Energy by NASA's Jet Propulsion Laboratory. Volume 1 of this report summarizes and discusses the results contained in Volume 2.

  15. A survey of Strong Convergent Schemes for the Simulation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    We considered strong convergent stochastic schemes for the simulation of stochastic differential equations. The stochastic Taylor's expansion, which is the main tool used for the derivation of strong convergent schemes; the Euler Maruyama, Milstein scheme, stochastic multistep schemes, Implicit and Explicit schemes were ...

  16. Leading survey and research report for fiscal 1999. Survey and research on chemical reaction simulator technology; 1999 nendo kagaku hanno simulator gijutsu no chosa kenkyu hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Although various chemical reactions are made use of at scenes of chemical industry for the acquisition of desired chemicals, the control of reaction process governing factors, such as temperature, pressure, catalysts, solutions, etc., is found to be carried out only on the empirical basis. At the present time, rational or optimum reaction designs are not to be prepared in a short period of time in the presence of the widespread shortage of knowledge about chemical reactions and of the shortage of understanding of chemical reactions at the micro level. Leading survey and research are conducted for the development of a 'chemical reaction simulator' technology to enable the acquisition of optimum reaction designing guidelines in a short period of time. Using the simulator, a chemical of his choice is inputted by a researcher engaged in the study of an real chemical reaction and then various techniques of computer science are mobilized for the preparation of a huge number of feasible reaction routes, and high-precision simulations are conducted for the feasible reaction routes. The results achieved this fiscal year are reported. The purpose of this research and its ripple effect on new product industry creation are stated. Then the positioning, mission, and concept of such a chemical reaction simulator are described. Finally, the result of research and survey of knowledge databases and the result of research and survey of computational chemistry are stated. (NEDO)

  17. Leading survey and research report for fiscal 1999. Survey and research on chemical reaction simulator technology; 1999 nendo kagaku hanno simulator gijutsu no chosa kenkyu hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Although various chemical reactions are made use of at scenes of chemical industry for the acquisition of desired chemicals, the control of reaction process governing factors, such as temperature, pressure, catalysts, solutions, etc., is found to be carried out only on the empirical basis. At the present time, rational or optimum reaction designs are not to be prepared in a short period of time in the presence of the widespread shortage of knowledge about chemical reactions and of the shortage of understanding of chemical reactions at the micro level. Leading survey and research are conducted for the development of a 'chemical reaction simulator' technology to enable the acquisition of optimum reaction designing guidelines in a short period of time. Using the simulator, a chemical of his choice is inputted by a researcher engaged in the study of an real chemical reaction and then various techniques of computer science are mobilized for the preparation of a huge number of feasible reaction routes, and high-precision simulations are conducted for the feasible reaction routes. The results achieved this fiscal year are reported. The purpose of this research and its ripple effect on new product industry creation are stated. Then the positioning, mission, and concept of such a chemical reaction simulator are described. Finally, the result of research and survey of knowledge databases and the result of research and survey of computational chemistry are stated. (NEDO)

  18. Flood Simulation Using WMS Model in Small Watershed after Strong Earthquake -A Case Study of Longxihe Watershed, Sichuan province, China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guo, B.

    2017-12-01

    Mountain watershed in Western China is prone to flash floods. The Wenchuan earthquake on May 12, 2008 led to the destruction of surface, and frequent landslides and debris flow, which further exacerbated the flash flood hazards. Two giant torrent and debris flows occurred due to heavy rainfall after the earthquake, one was on August 13 2010, and the other on August 18 2010. Flash floods reduction and risk assessment are the key issues in post-disaster reconstruction. Hydrological prediction models are important and cost-efficient mitigation tools being widely applied. In this paper, hydrological observations and simulation using remote sensing data and the WMS model are carried out in the typical flood-hit area, Longxihe watershed, Dujiangyan City, Sichuan Province, China. The hydrological response of rainfall runoff is discussed. The results show that: the WMS HEC-1 model can well simulate the runoff process of small watershed in mountainous area. This methodology can be used in other earthquake-affected areas for risk assessment and to predict the magnitude of flash floods. Key Words: Rainfall-runoff modeling. Remote Sensing. Earthquake. WMS.

  19. Survey of Australian schools of nursing use of human patient (mannequin) simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    McGarry, Denise Elizabeth; Cashin, Andrew; Fowler, Cathrine

    2014-11-01

    Rapid adoption of high-fidelity human patient (mannequin) simulation has occurred in Australian Schools of Nursing in recent years, as it has internationally. This paper reports findings from a 2012 online survey of Australian Schools of Nursing and builds on findings of earlier studies. The survey design allowed direct comparison with a previous study from the USA but limited its scope to the pre-registration (pre-service Bachelor of Nursing) curriculum. It also included extra mental health specific questions. Australian patterns of adoption and application of high-fidelity human patient (mannequin) simulation in the pre-registration nursing curriculum share features with experiences reported in previous US and Australian surveys. A finding of interest in this survey was a small number of Schools of Nursing that reported no current use of high-fidelity human patient (mannequin) simulation and no plans to adopt it, in spite of a governmental capital funding support programme. In-line with prior surveys, mental health applications were meagre. There is an absence of clearly articulated learning theory underpinnings in the use of high-fidelity human patient (mannequin) simulation generally. It appears the first stage of implementation of high-fidelity human patient (mannequin) simulation into the pre-registration nursing curriculum has occurred and the adoption of this pedagogy is entering a new phase.

  20. Simulating the Exoplanet Yield from the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Barclay, Thomas; Pepper, Joshua; Schlieder, Joshua; Quintana, Elisa

    2018-01-01

    In 2018 NASA will launch the MIT-led Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) which has a goal of detecting terrestrial-mass planets orbiting stars bright enough for mass determination via ground-based radial velocity observations. We inferred how many exoplanets the TESS mission will detect, the physical properties of these detected planets, and the properties of the stars that those planets orbit, subject to certain assumptions about the mission performance. To make these predictions we use samples of stars that are drawn from the TESS Input Catalog Candidate Target List. We place zero or more planets in orbit around these stars with physical properties following known exoplanet occurrence rates, and use the TESS noise model to predict the derived properties of the detected exoplanets. We find that it is feasible to detect around 1000 exoplanets, including 250 smaller than 2 earth-radii using the TESS 2-min cadence data. We examined alternative noise models and detection models and find in our pessimistic model that TESS will detect just 500 exoplanets. When potential detections in the full-frame image data are included, the number of detected planets could increase by a factor of 4. Perhaps most excitingly, TESS will find over 2 dozen planets orbiting in the habitable zone of bright, nearby cool stars. These planets will make ideal candidates for atmospheric characerization by JWST.

  1. Defining the Simulation Technician Role: Results of a Survey-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bailey, Rachel; Taylor, Regina G; FitzGerald, Michael R; Kerrey, Benjamin T; LeMaster, Thomas; Geis, Gary L

    2015-10-01

    In health care simulation, simulation technicians perform multiple tasks to support various educational offerings. Technician responsibilities and the tasks that accompany them seem to vary between centers. The objectives were to identify the range and frequency of tasks that technicians perform and to determine if there is a correspondence between what technicians do and what they feel their responsibilities should be. We hypothesized that there is a core set of responsibilities and tasks for the technician position regardless of background, experience, and type of simulation center. We conducted a prospective, survey-based study of individuals currently functioning in a simulation technician role in a simulation center. This survey was designed internally and piloted within 3 academic simulation centers. Potential respondents were identified through a national mailing list, and the survey was distributed electronically during a 3-week period. A survey request was sent to 280 potential participants, 136 (49%) responded, and 73 met inclusion criteria. Five core tasks were identified as follows: equipment setup and breakdown, programming scenarios into software, operation of software during simulation, audiovisual support for courses, and on-site simulator maintenance. Independent of background before they were hired, technicians felt unprepared for their role once taking the position. Formal training was identified as a need; however, the majority of technicians felt experience over time was the main contributor toward developing knowledge and skills within their role. This study represents a first step in defining the technician role within simulation-based education and supports the need for the development of a formal job description to allow recruitment, development, and certification.

  2. A survey of artifact-simulation approaches from the perspective of application to use processes of consumer durables

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Van der Vegte, W.F.

    2006-01-01

    In this paper, approaches for artifact-behavior simulation are reviewed. The motivation behind the survey is to explore available knowledge for the development of a new form of computer support for conceptual design to simulate use processes of consumer durables. The survey covers the simulation of

  3. A Survey on Efficient Collaboration of Design and Simulation in Product Development

    OpenAIRE

    Kreimeyer, M.;Deubzer, F.;Herfeld, U..;Lindemann, U.

    2017-01-01

    Efficient collaboration is a popular topic in all kinds of industry with products evolving into evermore complex sytems and with taylorism in product development increasing. With the goal of satisfying the customer’s functional desires for the product, the cooperation of embodiment design, simulation and testing departments in a company plays an essential role. The results of a survey to explore problems and chances of the former two are layed out in the following. For the survey, about 50 qu...

  4. Assessing the relative importance of parameter and forcing uncertainty and their interactions in conceptual hydrological model simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mockler, E. M.; Chun, K. P.; Sapriza-Azuri, G.; Bruen, M.; Wheater, H. S.

    2016-11-01

    Predictions of river flow dynamics provide vital information for many aspects of water management including water resource planning, climate adaptation, and flood and drought assessments. Many of the subjective choices that modellers make including model and criteria selection can have a significant impact on the magnitude and distribution of the output uncertainty. Hydrological modellers are tasked with understanding and minimising the uncertainty surrounding streamflow predictions before communicating the overall uncertainty to decision makers. Parameter uncertainty in conceptual rainfall-runoff models has been widely investigated, and model structural uncertainty and forcing data have been receiving increasing attention. This study aimed to assess uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to forcing data and the identification of behavioural parameter sets in 31 Irish catchments. By combining stochastic rainfall ensembles and multiple parameter sets for three conceptual rainfall-runoff models, an analysis of variance model was used to decompose the total uncertainty in streamflow simulations into contributions from (i) forcing data, (ii) identification of model parameters and (iii) interactions between the two. The analysis illustrates that, for our subjective choices, hydrological model selection had a greater contribution to overall uncertainty, while performance criteria selection influenced the relative intra-annual uncertainties in streamflow predictions. Uncertainties in streamflow predictions due to the method of determining parameters were relatively lower for wetter catchments, and more evenly distributed throughout the year when the Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency of logarithmic values of flow (lnNSE) was the evaluation criterion.

  5. A Novel Simulation Technician Laboratory Design: Results of a Survey-Based Study.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ahmed, Rami; Hughes, Patrick G; Friedl, Ed; Ortiz Figueroa, Fabiana; Cepeda Brito, Jose R; Frey, Jennifer; Birmingham, Lauren E; Atkinson, Steven Scott

    2016-03-16

    OBJECTIVE : The purpose of this study was to elicit feedback from simulation technicians prior to developing the first simulation technician-specific simulation laboratory in Akron, OH. Simulation technicians serve a vital role in simulation centers within hospitals/health centers around the world. The first simulation technician degree program in the US has been approved in Akron, OH. To satisfy the requirements of this program and to meet the needs of this special audience of learners, a customized simulation lab is essential. A web-based survey was circulated to simulation technicians prior to completion of the lab for the new program. The survey consisted of questions aimed at identifying structural and functional design elements of a novel simulation center for the training of simulation technicians. Quantitative methods were utilized to analyze data. Over 90% of technicians (n=65) think that a lab designed explicitly for the training of technicians is novel and beneficial. Approximately 75% of respondents think that the space provided appropriate audiovisual (AV) infrastructure and space to evaluate the ability of technicians to be independent. The respondents think that the lab needed more storage space, visualization space for a large number of students, and more space in the technical/repair area. CONCLUSIONS : A space designed for the training of simulation technicians was considered to be beneficial. This laboratory requires distinct space for technical repair, adequate bench space for the maintenance and repair of simulators, an appropriate AV infrastructure, and space to evaluate the ability of technicians to be independent.

  6. SURVEY SIMULATIONS OF A NEW NEAR-EARTH ASTEROID DETECTION SYSTEM

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mainzer, A.; Bauer, J.; Giorgini, J.; Masiero, J.; Grav, T.; Conrow, T.; Cutri, R. M.; Dailey, J.; Fowler, J.; Jarrett, T.; Spahr, T.; Statler, T.; Wright, E. L.

    2015-01-01

    We have carried out simulations to predict the performance of a new space-based telescopic survey operating at thermal infrared wavelengths that seeks to discover and characterize a large fraction of the potentially hazardous near-Earth asteroid (NEA) population. Two potential architectures for the survey were considered: one located at the Earth–Sun L1 Lagrange point, and one in a Venus-trailing orbit. A sample cadence was formulated and tested, allowing for the self-follow-up necessary for objects discovered in the daytime sky on Earth. Synthetic populations of NEAs with sizes as small as 140 m in effective spherical diameter were simulated using recent determinations of their physical and orbital properties. Estimates of the instrumental sensitivity, integration times, and slew speeds were included for both architectures assuming the properties of newly developed large-format 10 μm HgCdTe detector arrays capable of operating at ∼35 K. Our simulation included the creation of a preliminary version of a moving object processing pipeline suitable for operating on the trial cadence. We tested this pipeline on a simulated sky populated with astrophysical sources such as stars and galaxies extrapolated from Spitzer Space Telescope and Wide-field Infrared Explorer data, the catalog of known minor planets (including Main Belt asteroids, comets, Jovian Trojans, planets, etc.), and the synthetic NEA model. Trial orbits were computed for simulated position-time pairs extracted from the synthetic surveys to verify that the tested cadence would result in orbits suitable for recovering objects at a later time. Our results indicate that the Earth–Sun L1 and Venus-trailing surveys achieve similar levels of integral completeness for potentially hazardous asteroids larger than 140 m; placing the telescope in an interior orbit does not yield an improvement in discovery rates. This work serves as a necessary first step for the detailed planning of a next-generation NEA survey

  7. Laparoscopic simulation training in gynaecology: Current provision and staff attitudes - a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Burden, Christy; Fox, Robert; Hinshaw, Kim; Draycott, Timothy J; James, Mark

    2016-01-01

    The objectives of this study were to explore current provision of laparoscopic simulation training, and to determine attitudes of trainers and trainees to the role of simulators in surgical training across the UK. An anonymous cross-sectional survey with cluster sampling was developed and circulated. All Royal College of Obstetricians and Gynaecologists (RCOG) Training Programme Directors (TPD), College Tutors (RCT) and Trainee representatives (TR) across the UK were invited to participate. One hundred and ninety-six obstetricians and gynaecologists participated. Sixty-three percent of hospitals had at least one box trainer, and 14.6% had least one virtual-reality simulator. Only 9.3% and 3.6% stated that trainees used a structured curriculum on box and virtual-reality simulators, respectively. Respondents working in a Large/Teaching hospital (p = 0.008) were more likely to agree that simulators enhance surgical training. Eighty-nine percent agreed that simulators improve the quality of training, and should be mandatory or desirable for junior trainees. Consultants (p = 0.003) and respondents over 40 years (p = 0.011) were more likely to hold that a simulation test should be undertaken before live operation. Our data demonstrated, therefore, that availability of laparoscopic simulators is inconsistent, with limited use of mandatory structured curricula. In contrast, both trainers and trainees recognise a need for greater use of laparoscopic simulation for surgical training.

  8. Hydrograph simulation models of the Hillsborough and Alafia Rivers, Florida: a preliminary report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Turner, James F.

    1972-01-01

    Mathematical (digital) models that simulate flood hydrographs from rainfall records have been developed for the following gaging stations in the Hillsborough and Alafia River basins of west-central Florida: Hillsborough River near Tampa, Alafia River at Lithia, and north Prong Alafia River near Keysville. These models, which were developed from historical streamflow and and rainfall records, are based on rainfall-runoff and unit-hydrograph procedures involving an arbitrary separation of the flood hydrograph. These models assume the flood hydrograph to be composed of only two flow components, direct (storm) runoff, and base flow. Expressions describing these two flow components are derived from streamflow and rainfall records and are combined analytically to form algorithms (models), which are programmed for processing on a digital computing system. Most Hillsborough and Alafia River flood discharges can be simulated with expected relative errors less than or equal to 30 percent and flood peaks can be simulated with average relative errors less than 15 percent. Because of the inadequate rainfall network that is used in obtaining input data for the North Prong Alafia River model, simulated peaks are frequently in error by more than 40 percent, particularly for storms having highly variable areal rainfall distribution. Simulation errors are the result of rainfall sample errors and, to a lesser extent, model inadequacy. Data errors associated with the determination of mean basin precipitation are the result of the small number and poor areal distribution of rainfall stations available for use in the study. Model inadequacy, however, is attributed to the basic underlying theory, particularly the rainfall-runoff relation. These models broaden and enhance existing water-management capabilities within these basins by allowing the establishment and implementation of programs providing for continued development in these areas. Specifically, the models serve not only as a

  9. Ensemble flood simulation for a small dam catchment in Japan using 10 and 2 km resolution nonhydrostatic model rainfalls

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kobayashi, Kenichiro; Otsuka, Shigenori; Apip; Saito, Kazuo

    2016-08-01

    This paper presents a study on short-term ensemble flood forecasting specifically for small dam catchments in Japan. Numerical ensemble simulations of rainfall from the Japan Meteorological Agency nonhydrostatic model (JMA-NHM) are used as the input data to a rainfall-runoff model for predicting river discharge into a dam. The ensemble weather simulations use a conventional 10 km and a high-resolution 2 km spatial resolutions. A distributed rainfall-runoff model is constructed for the Kasahori dam catchment (approx. 70 km2) and applied with the ensemble rainfalls. The results show that the hourly maximum and cumulative catchment-average rainfalls of the 2 km resolution JMA-NHM ensemble simulation are more appropriate than the 10 km resolution rainfalls. All the simulated inflows based on the 2 and 10 km rainfalls become larger than the flood discharge of 140 m3 s-1, a threshold value for flood control. The inflows with the 10 km resolution ensemble rainfall are all considerably smaller than the observations, while at least one simulated discharge out of 11 ensemble members with the 2 km resolution rainfalls reproduces the first peak of the inflow at the Kasahori dam with similar amplitude to observations, although there are spatiotemporal lags between simulation and observation. To take positional lags into account of the ensemble discharge simulation, the rainfall distribution in each ensemble member is shifted so that the catchment-averaged cumulative rainfall of the Kasahori dam maximizes. The runoff simulation with the position-shifted rainfalls shows much better results than the original ensemble discharge simulations.

  10. U.S. Geological Survey programs and investigations related to soil and water conservation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Osterkamp, W.R.; Gray, J.R.

    2001-01-01

    The U.S. Geological Survey has a rich tradition of collecting hydrologic data, especially for fluxes of water and suspended sediment, that provide a foundation for studies of soil and water conservation. Applied and basic research has included investigations of the effects of land use on rangelands, croplands, and forests; hazards mapping; derivation of flood and drought frequency, and other statistics related to streamflow and reservoir storage; development and application of models of rainfall-runoff relations, chemical quality, and sediment movement; and studies of the interactive processes of overland and channel flow with vegetation. Networks of streamgaging stations and (or) sampling sites within numerous drainage basins are yielding information that extends databases and enhances the ability to use those data for interpretive studies.

  11. Perceptions, training experiences, and preferences of surgical residents toward laparoscopic simulation training: a resident survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Shetty, Shohan; Zevin, Boris; Grantcharov, Teodor P; Roberts, Kurt E; Duffy, Andrew J

    2014-01-01

    Simulation training for surgical residents can shorten learning curves, improve technical skills, and expedite competency. Several studies have shown that skills learned in the simulated environment are transferable to the operating room. Residency programs are trying to incorporate simulation into the resident training curriculum to supplement the hands-on experience gained in the operating room. Despite the availability and proven utility of surgical simulators and simulation laboratories, they are still widely underutilized by surgical trainees. Studies have shown that voluntary use leads to minimal participation in a training curriculum. Although there are several simulation tools, there is no clear evidence of the superiority of one tool over the other in skill acquisition. The purpose of this study was to explore resident perceptions, training experiences, and preferences regarding laparoscopic simulation training. Our goal was to profile resident participation in surgical skills simulation, recognize potential barriers to voluntary simulator use, and identify simulation tools and tasks preferred by residents. Furthermore, this study may help to inform whether mandatory/protected training time, as part of the residents' curriculum is essential to enhance participation in the simulation laboratory. A cross-sectional study on general surgery residents (postgraduate years 1-5) at Yale University School of Medicine and the University of Toronto via an online questionnaire was conducted. Overall, 67 residents completed the survey. The institutional review board approved the methods of the study. Overall, 95.5% of the participants believed that simulation training improved their laparoscopic skills. Most respondents (92.5%) perceived that skills learned during simulation training were transferrable to the operating room. Overall, 56.7% of participants agreed that proficiency in a simulation curriculum should be mandatory before operating room experience. The

  12. A Survey of Open-Source UAV Flight Controllers and Flight Simulators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebeid, Emad Samuel Malki; Skriver, Martin; Terkildsen, Kristian Husum

    2018-01-01

    The current disruptive innovation in civilian drone (UAV) applications has led to an increased need for research and development in UAV technology. The key challenges currently being addressed are related to UAV platform properties such as functionality, reliability, fault tolerance, and endurance......-source drone platform elements that can be used for research and development. The survey covers open-source hardware, software, and simulation drone platforms and compares their main features....

  13. Combining users' activity survey and simulators to evaluate human activity recognition systems.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azkune, Gorka; Almeida, Aitor; López-de-Ipiña, Diego; Chen, Liming

    2015-04-08

    Evaluating human activity recognition systems usually implies following expensive and time-consuming methodologies, where experiments with humans are run with the consequent ethical and legal issues. We propose a novel evaluation methodology to overcome the enumerated problems, which is based on surveys for users and a synthetic dataset generator tool. Surveys allow capturing how different users perform activities of daily living, while the synthetic dataset generator is used to create properly labelled activity datasets modelled with the information extracted from surveys. Important aspects, such as sensor noise, varying time lapses and user erratic behaviour, can also be simulated using the tool. The proposed methodology is shown to have very important advantages that allow researchers to carry out their work more efficiently. To evaluate the approach, a synthetic dataset generated following the proposed methodology is compared to a real dataset computing the similarity between sensor occurrence frequencies. It is concluded that the similarity between both datasets is more than significant.

  14. Combining Users’ Activity Survey and Simulators to Evaluate Human Activity Recognition Systems

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Gorka Azkune

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available Evaluating human activity recognition systems usually implies following expensive and time-consuming methodologies, where experiments with humans are run with the consequent ethical and legal issues. We propose a novel evaluation methodology to overcome the enumerated problems, which is based on surveys for users and a synthetic dataset generator tool. Surveys allow capturing how different users perform activities of daily living, while the synthetic dataset generator is used to create properly labelled activity datasets modelled with the information extracted from surveys. Important aspects, such as sensor noise, varying time lapses and user erratic behaviour, can also be simulated using the tool. The proposed methodology is shown to have very important advantages that allow researchers to carry out their work more efficiently. To evaluate the approach, a synthetic dataset generated following the proposed methodology is compared to a real dataset computing the similarity between sensor occurrence frequencies. It is concluded that the similarity between both datasets is more than significant.

  15. Combining Users' Activity Survey and Simulators to Evaluate Human Activity Recognition Systems

    Science.gov (United States)

    Azkune, Gorka; Almeida, Aitor; López-de-Ipiña, Diego; Chen, Liming

    2015-01-01

    Evaluating human activity recognition systems usually implies following expensive and time-consuming methodologies, where experiments with humans are run with the consequent ethical and legal issues. We propose a novel evaluation methodology to overcome the enumerated problems, which is based on surveys for users and a synthetic dataset generator tool. Surveys allow capturing how different users perform activities of daily living, while the synthetic dataset generator is used to create properly labelled activity datasets modelled with the information extracted from surveys. Important aspects, such as sensor noise, varying time lapses and user erratic behaviour, can also be simulated using the tool. The proposed methodology is shown to have very important advantages that allow researchers to carry out their work more efficiently. To evaluate the approach, a synthetic dataset generated following the proposed methodology is compared to a real dataset computing the similarity between sensor occurrence frequencies. It is concluded that the similarity between both datasets is more than significant. PMID:25856329

  16. A long-term, continuous simulation approach for large-scale flood risk assessments

    Science.gov (United States)

    Falter, Daniela; Schröter, Kai; Viet Dung, Nguyen; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Kreibich, Heidi; Apel, Heiko; Merz, Bruno

    2014-05-01

    The Regional Flood Model (RFM) is a process based model cascade developed for flood risk assessments of large-scale basins. RFM consists of four model parts: the rainfall-runoff model SWIM, a 1D channel routing model, a 2D hinterland inundation model and the flood loss estimation model for residential buildings FLEMOps+r. The model cascade was recently undertaken a proof-of-concept study at the Elbe catchment (Germany) to demonstrate that flood risk assessments, based on a continuous simulation approach, including rainfall-runoff, hydrodynamic and damage estimation models, are feasible for large catchments. The results of this study indicated that uncertainties are significant, especially for hydrodynamic simulations. This was basically a consequence of low data quality and disregarding dike breaches. Therefore, RFM was applied with a refined hydraulic model setup for the Elbe tributary Mulde. The study area Mulde catchment comprises about 6,000 km2 and 380 river-km. The inclusion of more reliable information on overbank cross-sections and dikes considerably improved the results. For the application of RFM for flood risk assessments, long-term climate input data is needed to drive the model chain. This model input was provided by a multi-site, multi-variate weather generator that produces sets of synthetic meteorological data reproducing the current climate statistics. The data set comprises 100 realizations of 100 years of meteorological data. With the proposed continuous simulation approach of RFM, we simulated a virtual period of 10,000 years covering the entire flood risk chain including hydrological, 1D/2D hydrodynamic and flood damage estimation models. This provided a record of around 2.000 inundation events affecting the study area with spatially detailed information on inundation depths and damage to residential buildings on a resolution of 100 m. This serves as basis for a spatially consistent, flood risk assessment for the Mulde catchment presented in

  17. Simulations of the WFIRST Supernova Survey and Forecasts of Cosmological Constraints

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hounsell, R. [Illinois U., Urbana, Astron. Dept.; Scolnic, D. [Chicago U., KICP; Foley, R. J. [UC, Santa Cruz; Kessler, R. [Chicago U., KICP; Miranda, V. [Pennsylvania U.; Avelino, A. [Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.; Bohlin, R. C. [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci.; Filippenko, A. V. [UC, Berkeley; Frieman, J. [Fermilab; Jha, S. W. [Rutgers U., Piscataway; Kelly, P. L. [UC, Berkeley; Kirshner, R. P. [Xerox, Palo Alto; Mandel, K. [Harvard-Smithsonian Ctr. Astrophys.; Rest, A. [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci.; Riess, A. G. [Johns Hopkins U.; Rodney, S. A. [South Carolina U.; Strolger, L. [Baltimore, Space Telescope Sci.

    2017-02-06

    The Wide Field InfraRed Survey Telescope (WFIRST) was the highest rankedlarge space-based mission of the 2010 New Worlds, New Horizons decadal survey.It is now a NASA mission in formulation with a planned launch in themid-2020's. A primary mission objective is to precisely constrain the nature ofdark energy through multiple probes, including Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia).Here, we present the first realistic simulations of the WFIRST SN survey basedon current hardware specifications and using open-source tools. We simulate SNlight curves and spectra as viewed by the WFIRST wide-field channel (WFC)imager and integral field channel (IFC) spectrometer, respectively. We examine11 survey strategies with different time allocations between the WFC and IFC,two of which are based upon the strategy described by the WFIRST ScienceDefinition Team, which measures SN distances exclusively from IFC data. Wepropagate statistical and, crucially, systematic uncertainties to predict thedark energy task force figure of merit (DETF FoM) for each strategy. Theincrease in FoM values with SN search area is limited by the overhead times foreach exposure. For IFC-focused strategies the largest individual systematicuncertainty is the wavelength-dependent calibration uncertainty, whereas forWFC-focused strategies, it is the intrinsic scatter uncertainty. We find thatthe best IFC-focused and WFC-exclusive strategies have comparable FoM values.Even without improvements to other cosmological probes, the WFIRST SN surveyhas the potential to increase the FoM by more than an order of magnitude fromthe current values. Although the survey strategies presented here have not beenfully optimized, these initial investigations are an important step in thedevelopment of the final hardware design and implementation of the WFIRSTmission.

  18. Simulation of trickle irrigation, an extension to the US Geological Survey's computer program VS2D

    Science.gov (United States)

    Healy, R.W.

    1987-01-01

    A method is presented for simulating water movement through unsaturated porous media in response to a constant rate of application from a surface source. Because the rate at which water can be absorbed by soil is limited, the water will pond; therefore the actual surface area over which the water is applied may change with time and in general will not be known beforehand. An iterative method is used to determine the size of this ponded area at any time. This method will be most useful for simulating trickling irrigation, but also may be of value for simulating movement of water is soils as the result of an accidental spill. The method is an extension to the finite difference computer program VS2D developed by the U.S. Geological Survey, which simulates water movement through variably saturated porous media. The simulated region can be a vertical, 2-dimensional cross section for treatment of a surface line source or an axially symmetric, 3-dimensional cylinder for a point source. Five test problems, obtained from the literature , are used to demonstrate the ability of the method to accurately match analytical and experimental results. (Author 's abstract)

  19. Use of simulation-based education: a national survey of pediatric clerkship directors.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vukin, Elizabeth; Greenberg, Robert; Auerbach, Marc; Chang, Lucy; Scotten, Mitzi; Tenney-Soeiro, Rebecca; Trainor, Jennifer; Dudas, Robert

    2014-01-01

    To document the prevalence of simulation-based education (SBE) for third- and fourth-year medical students; to determine the perceived importance of SBE; to characterize the barriers associated with establishing SBE. A 27-item survey regarding simulation was distributed to members of the Council on Medical Student Education in Pediatrics (COMSEP) as part of a larger survey in 2012. Seventy-one (48%) of 147 clerkship directors (CD) at COMSEP institutions responded to the survey questions regarding the use of SBE. Eighty-nine percent (63 of 71) of CDs reported use of SBE in some form: 27% of those programs (17 of 63) reported only the use of the online-based Computer-Assisted Learning in Pediatrics Program, and 73% (46 of 63) reported usage of other SBE modalities. Fifty-four percent of CDs (38 of 71) agreed that SBE is necessary to meet the requirements of the Liaison Committee on Medical Education (LCME). Multiple barriers were reported in initiating and implementing an SBE program. SBE is commonly used for instruction during pediatric undergraduate medical education in North American medical schools. Barriers to the use of SBE remain despite the perception that it is needed to meet requirements of the LCME. Copyright © 2014 Academic Pediatric Association. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.

  20. Needs assessment for simulation training in neuroendoscopy: a Canadian national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haji, Faizal A; Dubrowski, Adam; Drake, James; de Ribaupierre, Sandrine

    2013-02-01

    In recent years, dramatic changes in surgical education have increased interest in simulation-based training for complex surgical skills. This is particularly true for endoscopic third ventriculostomy (ETV), given the potential for serious intraoperative errors arising from surgical inexperience. However, prior to simulator development, a thorough assessment of training needs is essential to ensure development of educationally relevant platforms. The purpose of this study was to conduct a national needs assessment addressing specific goals of instruction, to guide development of simulation platforms, training curricula, and assessment metrics for ETV. Canadian neurosurgeons performing ETV were invited to participate in a structured online questionnaire regarding the procedural steps for ETV, the frequency and significance of intraoperative errors committed while learning the technique, and simulation training modules of greatest potential educational benefit. Descriptive data analysis was completed for both quantitative and qualitative responses. Thirty-two (55.2%) of 58 surgeons completed the survey. All believed that virtual reality simulation training for ETV would be a valuable addition to clinical training. Selection of ventriculostomy site, navigation within the ventricles, and performance of the ventriculostomy ranked as the most important steps to simulate. Technically inadequate ventriculostomy and inappropriate fenestration site selection were ranked as the most frequent/significant errors. A standard ETV module was thought to be most beneficial for resident training. To inform the development of a simulation-based training program for ETV, the authors have conducted a national needs assessment. The results provide valuable insight to inform key design elements necessary to construct an educationally relevant device and educational program.

  1. Agent-based simulation in management and organizational studies: a survey

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nelson Alfonso Gómez-Cruz

    2017-10-01

    Full Text Available Purpose - The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive survey of the literature about the use of agent-based simulation (ABS in the study of organizational behavior, decision making, and problem-solving. It aims at contributing to the consolidation of ABS as a field of applied research in management and organizational studies. Design/methodology/approach - The authors carried out a non-systematic search in literature published between 2000 and 2016, by using the keyword “agent-based” to search through Scopus’ business, management and accounting database. Additional search criteria were devised using the papers’ keywords and the categories defined by the divisions and interest groups of the Academy of Management. The authors found 181 articles for this survey. Findings - The survey shows that ABS provides a robust and rigorous framework to elaborate descriptions, explanations, predictions and theories about organizations and their processes as well as develop tools that support strategic and operational decision making and problem-solving. The authors show that the areas that report the highest number of applications are operations and logistics (37 percent, marketing (17 percent and organizational behavior (14 percent. Originality/value - The paper illustrates the increasingly prominent role of ABS in fields such as organizational behavior, strategy, human resources, marketing and logistics. To-date, this is the most complete survey about ABS in all management areas.

  2. Using multi-disciplinary optimization and numerical simulation on the transiting exoplanet survey satellite

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stoeckel, Gerhard P.; Doyle, Keith B.

    2017-08-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) is an instrument consisting of four, wide fieldof- view CCD cameras dedicated to the discovery of exoplanets around the brightest stars, and understanding the diversity of planets and planetary systems in our galaxy. Each camera utilizes a seven-element lens assembly with low-power and low-noise CCD electronics. Advanced multivariable optimization and numerical simulation capabilities accommodating arbitrarily complex objective functions have been added to the internally developed Lincoln Laboratory Integrated Modeling and Analysis Software (LLIMAS) and used to assess system performance. Various optical phenomena are accounted for in these analyses including full dn/dT spatial distributions in lenses and charge diffusion in the CCD electronics. These capabilities are utilized to design CCD shims for thermal vacuum chamber testing and flight, and verify comparable performance in both environments across a range of wavelengths, field points and temperature distributions. Additionally, optimizations and simulations are used for model correlation and robustness optimizations.

  3. Rip current evidence by hydrodynamic simulations, bathymetric surveys and UAV observation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    G. Benassai

    2017-09-01

    Full Text Available The prediction of the formation, spacing and location of rip currents is a scientific challenge that can be achieved by means of different complementary methods. In this paper the analysis of numerical and experimental data, including RPAS (remotely piloted aircraft systems observations, allowed us to detect the presence of rip currents and rip channels at the mouth of Sele River, in the Gulf of Salerno, southern Italy. The dataset used to analyze these phenomena consisted of two different bathymetric surveys, a detailed sediment analysis and a set of high-resolution wave numerical simulations, completed with Google EarthTM images and RPAS observations. The grain size trend analysis and the numerical simulations allowed us to identify the rip current occurrence, forced by topographically constrained channels incised on the seabed, which were compared with observations.

  4. Climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve: PART I – A simple sensitivity analysis based on the continuous simulation approach

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    A. M. Hashemi

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available Regionalized and at-site flood frequency curves exhibit considerable variability in their shapes, but the factors controlling the variability (other than sampling effects are not well understood. An application of the Monte Carlo simulation-based derived distribution approach is presented in this two-part paper to explore the influence of climate, described by simulated rainfall and evapotranspiration time series, and basin factors on the flood frequency curve (ffc. The sensitivity analysis conducted in the paper should not be interpreted as reflecting possible climate changes, but the results can provide an indication of the changes to which the flood frequency curve might be sensitive. A single site Neyman Scott point process model of rainfall, with convective and stratiform cells (Cowpertwait, 1994; 1995, has been employed to generate synthetic rainfall inputs to a rainfall runoff model. The time series of the potential evapotranspiration (ETp demand has been represented through an AR(n model with seasonal component, while a simplified version of the ARNO rainfall-runoff model (Todini, 1996 has been employed to simulate the continuous discharge time series. All these models have been parameterised in a realistic manner using observed data and results from previous applications, to obtain ‘reference’ parameter sets for a synthetic case study. Subsequently, perturbations to the model parameters have been made one-at-a-time and the sensitivities of the generated annual maximum rainfall and flood frequency curves (unstandardised, and standardised by the mean have been assessed. Overall, the sensitivity analysis described in this paper suggests that the soil moisture regime, and, in particular, the probability distribution of soil moisture content at the storm arrival time, can be considered as a unifying link between the perturbations to the several parameters and their effects on the standardised and unstandardised ffcs, thus revealing the

  5. Identifying the Barriers to Using Games and Simulations in Education: Creating a Valid and Reliable Survey Instrument

    Science.gov (United States)

    Justice, Lenora Jean

    2012-01-01

    The purpose of this study was to create a valid and reliable instrument to measure teacher perceived barriers to the adoption of games and simulations in instruction. Previous research, interviews with educators, a focus group, an expert review, and a think aloud protocol were used to design a survey instrument. After finalization, the survey was…

  6. Application of Genetic Programing to Develop a Modular Model for the Simulation of Stream Flow Time Series

    Science.gov (United States)

    Meshgi, A.; Babovic, V.; Chui, T. F. M.; Schmitter, P.

    2014-12-01

    Developing reliable methods to estimate stream flow has been a subject of interest due to its importance in planning, design and management of water resources within a basin. Machine learning tools such as Artificial Neural Network (ANN) and Genetic Programming (GP) have been widely applied for rainfall-runoff modeling as they require less computational time as compared to physically-based models. As GP is able to generate a function with understandable structure, it may offer advantages over other data driven techniques and therefore has been used in different studies to generate rainfall-runoff functions. However, to date, proposed formulations only contain rainfall and/or streamflow data and consequently are local and cannot be generalized and adopted in other catchments which have different physical characteristics. This study investigated the capability of GP in developing a physically interpretable model with understandable structure to simulate stream flow based on hydrological parameters (e.g. precipitation) and catchment conditions (e.g., initial groundwater table elevation and area of the catchment) by following a modular approach. The modular model resulted in two sub-models where the baseflow was first predicted and the direct runoff was then estimated for a semi-urban catchment in Singapore. The simulated results matched very well with observed data in both the training and the testing of data sets, giving NSEs of 0.97 and 0.96 respectively demonstrated the successful estimation of stream flow using the modular model derived in this study. The results of this study indicate that GP is an effective tool in developing a physically interpretable model with understandable structure to simulate stream flow that can be transferred to other catchments.

  7. Corruption of accuracy and efficiency of Markov chain Monte Carlo simulation by inaccurate numerical implementation of conceptual hydrologic models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schoups, G.; Vrugt, J. A.; Fenicia, F.; van de Giesen, N. C.

    2010-10-01

    Conceptual rainfall-runoff models have traditionally been applied without paying much attention to numerical errors induced by temporal integration of water balance dynamics. Reliance on first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods leads to computationally cheap simulation models that are easy to implement. Computational speed is especially desirable for estimating parameter and predictive uncertainty using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. Confirming earlier work of Kavetski et al. (2003), we show here that the computational speed of first-order, explicit, fixed-step integration methods comes at a cost: for a case study with a spatially lumped conceptual rainfall-runoff model, it introduces artificial bimodality in the marginal posterior parameter distributions, which is not present in numerically accurate implementations of the same model. The resulting effects on MCMC simulation include (1) inconsistent estimates of posterior parameter and predictive distributions, (2) poor performance and slow convergence of the MCMC algorithm, and (3) unreliable convergence diagnosis using the Gelman-Rubin statistic. We studied several alternative numerical implementations to remedy these problems, including various adaptive-step finite difference schemes and an operator splitting method. Our results show that adaptive-step, second-order methods, based on either explicit finite differencing or operator splitting with analytical integration, provide the best alternative for accurate and efficient MCMC simulation. Fixed-step or adaptive-step implicit methods may also be used for increased accuracy, but they cannot match the efficiency of adaptive-step explicit finite differencing or operator splitting. Of the latter two, explicit finite differencing is more generally applicable and is preferred if the individual hydrologic flux laws cannot be integrated analytically, as the splitting method then loses its advantage.

  8. SIMULATIONS OF WIDE-FIELD WEAK-LENSING SURVEYS. II. COVARIANCE MATRIX OF REAL-SPACE CORRELATION FUNCTIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sato, Masanori; Matsubara, Takahiko; Takada, Masahiro; Hamana, Takashi

    2011-01-01

    Using 1000 ray-tracing simulations for a Λ-dominated cold dark model in Sato et al., we study the covariance matrix of cosmic shear correlation functions, which is the standard statistics used in previous measurements. The shear correlation function of a particular separation angle is affected by Fourier modes over a wide range of multipoles, even beyond a survey area, which complicates the analysis of the covariance matrix. To overcome such obstacles we first construct Gaussian shear simulations from the 1000 realizations and then use the Gaussian simulations to disentangle the Gaussian covariance contribution to the covariance matrix we measured from the original simulations. We found that an analytical formula of Gaussian covariance overestimates the covariance amplitudes due to an effect of the finite survey area. Furthermore, the clean separation of the Gaussian covariance allows us to examine the non-Gaussian covariance contributions as a function of separation angles and source redshifts. For upcoming surveys with typical source redshifts of z s = 0.6 and 1.0, the non-Gaussian contribution to the diagonal covariance components at 1 arcmin scales is greater than the Gaussian contribution by a factor of 20 and 10, respectively. Predictions based on the halo model qualitatively well reproduce the simulation results, however show a sizable disagreement in the covariance amplitudes. By combining these simulation results we develop a fitting formula to the covariance matrix for a survey with arbitrary area coverage, taking into account effects of the finiteness of survey area on the Gaussian covariance.

  9. Dark Energy Survey Year 1 Results: Multi-Probe Methodology and Simulated Likelihood Analyses

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Krause, E.; et al.

    2017-06-28

    We present the methodology for and detail the implementation of the Dark Energy Survey (DES) 3x2pt DES Year 1 (Y1) analysis, which combines configuration-space two-point statistics from three different cosmological probes: cosmic shear, galaxy-galaxy lensing, and galaxy clustering, using data from the first year of DES observations. We have developed two independent modeling pipelines and describe the code validation process. We derive expressions for analytical real-space multi-probe covariances, and describe their validation with numerical simulations. We stress-test the inference pipelines in simulated likelihood analyses that vary 6-7 cosmology parameters plus 20 nuisance parameters and precisely resemble the analysis to be presented in the DES 3x2pt analysis paper, using a variety of simulated input data vectors with varying assumptions. We find that any disagreement between pipelines leads to changes in assigned likelihood $\\Delta \\chi^2 \\le 0.045$ with respect to the statistical error of the DES Y1 data vector. We also find that angular binning and survey mask do not impact our analytic covariance at a significant level. We determine lower bounds on scales used for analysis of galaxy clustering (8 Mpc$~h^{-1}$) and galaxy-galaxy lensing (12 Mpc$~h^{-1}$) such that the impact of modeling uncertainties in the non-linear regime is well below statistical errors, and show that our analysis choices are robust against a variety of systematics. These tests demonstrate that we have a robust analysis pipeline that yields unbiased cosmological parameter inferences for the flagship 3x2pt DES Y1 analysis. We emphasize that the level of independent code development and subsequent code comparison as demonstrated in this paper is necessary to produce credible constraints from increasingly complex multi-probe analyses of current data.

  10. Investigation of biochar effects as a non-structural BMP on soil erosional properties using a rainfall simulator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Khademalrasoul, Ataalah; Kuhn, Nikolaus J; Hu, Yaxian

    Recent studies have shown the potential of biochar for improving overall soil quality including soil aggregation and structure. Erodibility is an inherent soil property that amongst others is highly dependent on soil organic matter content which affects aggregate stability and crusting during...... runoff events. We hypothesized that erodibility is reduced in biochar-amended soils and tested this in controlled rainfall-runoff simulations. The specific objectives of our study were (1) to compare runoff and sediment generation between a biochar and an unamended control treatment on an arable sandy...... loam soil and (2) to determine the effect of the biochar treatment on SOC erodibility. A field experiment with eight plots was established at Risø, Denmark, in 2011; four biochar-amended and four unamended control plots. Biochar produced from birch wood at 500 ºC was applied at a rate of 2 kg m-2...

  11. Use of simulation-based medical training in Swiss pediatric hospitals: a national survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Stocker, Martin; Laine, Kathryn; Ulmer, Francis

    2017-06-17

    Simulation-based medical training (SBMT) is a powerful tool for continuing medical education. In contrast to the Anglo-Saxon medical education community, up until recently, SBMT was scarce in continental Europe's pediatric health care education: In 2009, only 3 Swiss pediatric health care institutions used SBMT. The Swiss catalogue of objectives in Pediatrics does not acknowledge SBMT. The aim of this survey is to describe and analyze the current state of SBMT in Swiss pediatric hospitals and health care departments. A survey was carried out with medical education representatives of every institution. SBMT was defined as any kind of training with a mannequin excluding national and/or international standardized courses. The survey reference day was May 31st 2015. Thirty Swiss pediatric hospitals and health care departments answered our survey (response rate 96.8%) with 66.6% (20 out of 30) offering SBMT. Four of the 20 hospitals offering SMBT had two independently operating training simulation units, resulting in 24 educational units as the basis for our SBMT analysis. More than 90% of the educational units offering SBMT (22 out of 24 units) were conducting in-situ training and 62.5% (15 out of 24) were using high-technology mannequins. Technical skills, communication and leadership ranked among the top training priorities. All institutions catered to inter-professional participants. The vast majority conducted training that was neither embedded within a larger educational curriculum (19 out of 24: 79.2%) nor evaluated (16 out of 24: 66.6%) by its participants. Only 5 institutions (20.8%) extended their training to at least two thirds of their hospital staff. Two thirds of the Swiss pediatric hospitals and health care departments are offering SBMT. Swiss pediatric SBMT is inter-professional, mainly in-situ based, covering technical as well as non-technical skills, and often employing high-technology mannequins. The absence of a systematic approach and reaching only

  12. Evaluating gridded crop model simulations of evapotranspiration and irrigation using survey and remotely sensed data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lopez Bobeda, J. R.

    2017-12-01

    The increasing use of groundwater for irrigation of crops has exacerbated groundwater sustainability issues faced by water limited regions. Gridded, process-based crop models have the potential to help farmers and policymakers asses the effects water shortages on yield and devise new strategies for sustainable water use. Gridded crop models are typically calibrated and evaluated using county-level survey data of yield, planting dates, and maturity dates. However, little is known about the ability of these models to reproduce observed crop evapotranspiration and water use at regional scales. The aim of this work is to evaluate a gridded version of the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) crop model over the continental United States. We evaluated crop seasonal evapotranspiration over 5 arc-minute grids, and irrigation water use at the county level. Evapotranspiration was assessed only for rainfed agriculture to test the model evapotranspiration equations separate from the irrigation algorithm. Model evapotranspiration was evaluated against the Atmospheric Land Exchange Inverse (ALEXI) modeling product. Using a combination of the USDA crop land data layer (CDL) and the USGS Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer Irrigated Agriculture Dataset for the United States (MIrAD-US), we selected only grids with more than 60% of their area planted with the simulated crops (corn, cotton, and soybean), and less than 20% of their area irrigated. Irrigation water use was compared against the USGS county level irrigated agriculture water use survey data. Simulated gridded data were aggregated to county level using USDA CDL and USGS MIrAD-US. Only counties where 70% or more of the irrigated land was corn, cotton, or soybean were selected for the evaluation. Our results suggest that gridded crop models can reasonably reproduce crop evapotranspiration at the country scale (RRMSE = 10%).

  13. Star/galaxy separation at faint magnitudes: Application to a simulated Dark Energy Survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soumagnac, M.T.; et al.

    2013-06-21

    We address the problem of separating stars from galaxies in future large photometric surveys. We focus our analysis on simulations of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). In the first part of the paper, we derive the science requirements on star/galaxy separation, for measurement of the cosmological parameters with the Gravitational Weak Lensing and Large Scale Structure probes. These requirements are dictated by the need to control both the statistical and systematic errors on the cosmological parameters, and by Point Spread Function calibration. We formulate the requirements in terms of the completeness and purity provided by a given star/galaxy classifier. In order to achieve these requirements at faint magnitudes, we propose a new method for star/galaxy separation in the second part of the paper. We first use Principal Component Analysis to outline the correlations between the objects parameters and extract from it the most relevant information. We then use the reduced set of parameters as input to an Artificial Neural Network. This multi-parameter approach improves upon purely morphometric classifiers (such as the classifier implemented in SExtractor), especially at faint magnitudes: it increases the purity by up to 20% for stars and by up to 12% for galaxies, at i-magnitude fainter than 23.

  14. Star/galaxy separation at faint magnitudes: application to a simulated Dark Energy Survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Soumagnac, M. T.; Abdalla, F. B.; Lahav, O.; Kirk, D.; Sevilla, I.; Bertin, E.; Rowe, B. T. P.; Annis, J.; Busha, M. T.; Da Costa, L. N.; Frieman, J. A.; Gaztanaga, E.; Jarvis, M.; Lin, H.; Percival, W. J.; Santiago, B. X.; Sabiu, C. G.; Wechsler, R. H.; Wolz, L.; Yanny, B.

    2015-04-14

    We address the problem of separating stars from galaxies in future large photometric surveys. We focus our analysis on simulations of the Dark Energy Survey (DES). In the first part of the paper, we derive the science requirements on star/galaxy separation, for measurement of the cosmological parameters with the gravitational weak lensing and large-scale structure probes. These requirements are dictated by the need to control both the statistical and systematic errors on the cosmological parameters, and by point spread function calibration. We formulate the requirements in terms of the completeness and purity provided by a given star/galaxy classifier. In order to achieve these requirements at faint magnitudes, we propose a new method for star/galaxy separation in the second part of the paper. We first use principal component analysis to outline the correlations between the objects parameters and extract from it the most relevant information. We then use the reduced set of parameters as input to an Artificial Neural Network. This multiparameter approach improves upon purely morphometric classifiers (such as the classifier implemented in SExtractor), especially at faint magnitudes: it increases the purity by up to 20 per cent for stars and by up to 12 per cent for galaxies, at i-magnitude fainter than 23.

  15. Simulation of contaminated sediment transport in White Oak Creek basin

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bao, Y.; Clapp, R.B.; Brenkert, A.L.; Moore, T.D.; Fontaine, T.A.

    1995-01-01

    This paper presents a systematic approach to management of the contaminated sediments in the White Oak Creek watershed at Oak Ridge National Laboratory near Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The primary contaminant of concern is radioactive cesium-137 ( 137 Cs), which binds to soil and sediment particles. The key components in the approach include an intensive sampling and monitoring system for flood events; modeling of hydrological processes, sediment transport, and contaminant flux movement; and a decision framework with a detailed human health risk analysis. Emphasis is placed on modeling of watershed rainfall-runoff and contaminated sediment transport during flooding periods using the Hydrologic Simulation Program- Fortran (HSPF) model. Because a large number of parameters are required in HSPF modeling, the major effort in the modeling process is the calibration of model parameters to make simulation results and measured values agree as closely as possible. An optimization model incorporating the concepts of an expert system was developed to improve calibration results and efficiency. Over a five-year simulation period, the simulated flows match the observed values well. Simulated total amount of sediment loads at various locations during storms match with the observed values within a factor of 1.5. Simulated annual releases of 137 Cs off-site locations match the data within a factor of 2 for the five-year period. The comprehensive modeling approach can provide a valuable tool for decision makers to quantitatively analyze sediment erosion, deposition, and transport; exposure risk related to radionuclides in contaminated sediment; and various management strategies

  16. Simulation platform for direct load control of household appliances. Literature survey and G2 implementation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Kolm, J; Vlaheli, A

    1996-10-01

    There is an incentive for the power utilities to look for other ways than building new power stations to satisfy increasing customer power needs. One way to fulfill this demand is by redistributing the available electric power between the different power consumers. This method can successfully be used during high peak hours. The utility is also able to make financial profits selling the redistributed electric power at a higher price to customers with temporary high power demands. Direct Load Control - DLC, a Demand Side Management - DSM tool, is one way to achieve a redistribution of electric power. This masters thesis project consisted in developing a user-friendly simulation platform for domestic appliances combined with an electric power control system to be employed for Direct Load Control. The platform contains the necessary facilities for designing an electrical distribution network model and is implemented in G2, an object-oriented real-time environment. The final application provides an on-line instrument for the utility to control the power consumption over the entire system in terms of dispensing power in an electrical network. The report consists of two main parts. The first part describes a literature survey we systematically compiled to gather literature sources. The second part outlines our design and implementation of the G2 simulation platform for a water-heater model with a Direct Load Control system. The entire simulation platform is designed to allow a flexible change and improvement of the different models. Consequently, our software is a powerful tool for studying a wide range of problems related to a Load Management program involving electrical household loads. 9 refs, 32 figs

  17. Assessing influences on social vulnerability to wildfire using surveys, spatial data and wildfire simulations.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Paveglio, Travis B; Edgeley, Catrin M; Stasiewicz, Amanda M

    2018-05-01

    A growing body of research focuses on identifying patterns among human populations most at risk from hazards such as wildfire and the factors that help explain performance of mitigations that can help reduce that risk. Emerging policy surrounding wildfire management emphasizes the need to better understand such social vulnerability-or human populations' potential exposure to and sensitivity from wildfire-related impacts, including their ability to reduce negative impacts from the hazard. Studies of social vulnerability to wildfire often pair secondary demographic data with a variety of vegetation and wildfire simulation models to map potential risk. However, many of the assumptions made by those researchers about the demographic, spatial or perceptual factors that influence social vulnerability to wildfire have not been fully evaluated or tested against objective measures of potential wildfire risk. The research presented here utilizes self-reported surveys, GIS data, and wildfire simulations to test the relationships between select perceptual, demographic, and property characteristics of property owners against empirically simulated metrics for potential wildfire related damages or exposure. We also evaluate how those characteristics relate to property owners' performance of mitigations or support for fire management. Our results suggest that parcel characteristics provide the most significant explanation of variability in wildfire exposure, sensitivity and overall wildfire risk, while the positive relationship between income or property values and components of social vulnerability stands in contrast to typical assumptions from existing literature. Respondents' views about agency or government management helped explain a significant amount of variance in wildfire sensitivity, while the importance of wildfire risk in selecting a residence was an important influence on mitigation action. We use these and other results from our effort to discuss updated

  18. Preclinical Pharmacokinetic/Pharmacodynamic Modeling and Simulation in the Pharmaceutical Industry: An IQ Consortium Survey Examining the Current Landscape

    OpenAIRE

    Schuck, Edgar; Bohnert, Tonika; Chakravarty, Arijit; Damian-Iordache, Valeriu; Gibson, Christopher; Hsu, Cheng-Pang; Heimbach, Tycho; Krishnatry, Anu Shilpa; Liederer, Bianca M; Lin, Jing; Maurer, Tristan; Mettetal, Jerome T; Mudra, Daniel R; Nijsen, Marjoleen JMA; Raybon, Joseph

    2015-01-01

    The application of modeling and simulation techniques is increasingly common in preclinical stages of the drug discovery and development process. A survey focusing on preclinical pharmacokinetic/pharmacodynamics (PK/PD) analysis was conducted across pharmaceutical companies that are members of the International Consortium for Quality and Innovation in Pharmaceutical Development. Based on survey responses, ~68% of companies use preclinical PK/PD analysis in all therapeutic areas indicating its...

  19. HIDE & SEEK: End-to-end packages to simulate and process radio survey data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Akeret, J.; Seehars, S.; Chang, C.; Monstein, C.; Amara, A.; Refregier, A.

    2017-01-01

    As several large single-dish radio surveys begin operation within the coming decade, a wealth of radio data will become available and provide a new window to the Universe. In order to fully exploit the potential of these datasets, it is important to understand the systematic effects associated with the instrument and the analysis pipeline. A common approach to tackle this is to forward-model the entire system-from the hardware to the analysis of the data products. For this purpose, we introduce two newly developed, open-source Python packages: the HI Data Emulator (HIDE) and the Signal Extraction and Emission Kartographer (SEEK) for simulating and processing single-dish radio survey data. HIDE forward-models the process of collecting astronomical radio signals in a single-dish radio telescope instrument and outputs pixel-level time-ordered-data. SEEK processes the time-ordered-data, removes artifacts from Radio Frequency Interference (RFI), automatically applies flux calibration, and aims to recover the astronomical radio signal. The two packages can be used separately or together depending on the application. Their modular and flexible nature allows easy adaptation to other instruments and datasets. We describe the basic architecture of the two packages and examine in detail the noise and RFI modeling in HIDE, as well as the implementation of gain calibration and RFI mitigation in SEEK. We then apply HIDE &SEEK to forward-model a Galactic survey in the frequency range 990-1260 MHz based on data taken at the Bleien Observatory. For this survey, we expect to cover 70% of the full sky and achieve a median signal-to-noise ratio of approximately 5-6 in the cleanest channels including systematic uncertainties. However, we also point out the potential challenges of high RFI contamination and baseline removal when examining the early data from the Bleien Observatory. The fully documented HIDE &SEEK packages are available at http://hideseek.phys.ethz.ch/ and are published

  20. Propagation of radar rainfall uncertainty in urban flood simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Liguori, Sara; Rico-Ramirez, Miguel

    2013-04-01

    hydrodynamic sewer network model implemented in the Infoworks software was used to model the rainfall-runoff process in the urban area. The software calculates the flow through the sewer conduits of the urban model using rainfall as the primary input. The sewer network is covered by 25 radar pixels with a spatial resolution of 1 km2. The majority of the sewer system is combined, carrying both urban rainfall runoff as well as domestic and trade waste water [11]. The urban model was configured to receive the probabilistic radar rainfall fields. The results showed that the radar rainfall ensembles provide additional information about the uncertainty in the radar rainfall measurements that can be propagated in urban flood modelling. The peaks of the measured flow hydrographs are often bounded within the uncertainty area produced by using the radar rainfall ensembles. This is in fact one of the benefits of using radar rainfall ensembles in urban flood modelling. More work needs to be done in improving the urban models, but this is out of the scope of this research. The rainfall uncertainty cannot explain the whole uncertainty shown in the flow simulations, and additional sources of uncertainty will come from the structure of the urban models as well as the large number of parameters required by these models. Acknowledgements The authors would like to acknowledge the BADC, the UK Met Office and the UK Environment Agency for providing the various data sets. We also thank Yorkshire Water Services Ltd for providing the urban model. The authors acknowledge the support from the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council (EPSRC) via grant EP/I012222/1. References [1] Browning KA, 1978. Meteorological applications of radar. Reports on Progress in Physics 41 761 Doi: 10.1088/0034-4885/41/5/003 [2] Rico-Ramirez MA, Cluckie ID, Shepherd G, Pallot A, 2007. A high-resolution radar experiment on the island of Jersey. Meteorological Applications 14: 117-129. [3] Villarini G, Krajewski WF

  1. Effect of Bias Correction of Satellite-Rainfall Estimates on Runoff Simulations at the Source of the Upper Blue Nile

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Emad Habib

    2014-07-01

    Full Text Available Results of numerous evaluation studies indicated that satellite-rainfall products are contaminated with significant systematic and random errors. Therefore, such products may require refinement and correction before being used for hydrologic applications. In the present study, we explore a rainfall-runoff modeling application using the Climate Prediction Center-MORPHing (CMORPH satellite rainfall product. The study area is the Gilgel Abbay catchment situated at the source basin of the Upper Blue Nile basin in Ethiopia, Eastern Africa. Rain gauge networks in such area are typically sparse. We examine different bias correction schemes applied locally to the CMORPH product. These schemes vary in the degree to which spatial and temporal variability in the CMORPH bias fields are accounted for. Three schemes are tested: space and time-invariant, time-variant and spatially invariant, and space and time variant. Bias-corrected CMORPH products were used to calibrate and drive the Hydrologiska Byråns Vattenbalansavdelning (HBV rainfall-runoff model. Applying the space and time-fixed bias correction scheme resulted in slight improvement of the CMORPH-driven runoff simulations, but in some instances caused deterioration. Accounting for temporal variation in the bias reduced the rainfall bias by up to 50%. Additional improvements were observed when both the spatial and temporal variability in the bias was accounted for. The rainfall bias was found to have a pronounced effect on model calibration. The calibrated model parameters changed significantly when using rainfall input from gauges alone, uncorrected, and bias-corrected CMORPH estimates. Changes of up to 81% were obtained for model parameters controlling the stream flow volume.

  2. A survey of dual active galactic nuclei in simulations of galaxy mergers: frequency and properties

    Science.gov (United States)

    Capelo, Pedro R.; Dotti, Massimo; Volonteri, Marta; Mayer, Lucio; Bellovary, Jillian M.; Shen, Sijing

    2017-08-01

    We investigate the simultaneous triggering of active galactic nuclei (AGN) in merging galaxies, using a large suite of high-resolution hydrodynamical simulations. We compute dual-AGN observability time-scales using bolometric, X-ray and Eddington-ratio thresholds, confirming that dual activity from supermassive black holes (BHs) is generally higher at late pericentric passages, before a merger remnant has formed, especially at high luminosities. For typical minor and major mergers, dual activity lasts ˜20-70 and ˜100-160 Myr, respectively. We also explore the effects of X-ray obscuration from gas, finding that the dual-AGN time decreases at most by a factor of ˜2, and of contamination from star formation. Using projected separations and velocity differences rather than three-dimensional quantities can decrease the dual-AGN time-scales by up to ˜4, and we apply filters that mimic current observational-resolution limitations. In agreement with observations, we find that for a sample of major and minor mergers hosting at least one AGN, the fraction harbouring dual AGN is ˜20-30 and ˜1-10 per cent, respectively. We quantify the effects of merger mass ratio (0.1 to 1), geometry (coplanar, prograde and retrograde, and inclined), disc gas fraction and BH properties, finding that the mass ratio is the most important factor, with the difference between minor and major mergers varying between factors of a few to orders of magnitude, depending on the luminosity and filter used. We also find that a shallow imaging survey will require very high angular resolution whereas a deep imaging survey will be less resolution-dependent.

  3. Bayesian analysis of data and model error in rainfall-runoff hydrological models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kavetski, D.; Franks, S. W.; Kuczera, G.

    2004-12-01

    A major unresolved issue in the identification and use of conceptual hydrologic models is realistic description of uncertainty in the data and model structure. In particular, hydrologic parameters often cannot be measured directly and must be inferred (calibrated) from observed forcing/response data (typically, rainfall and runoff). However, rainfall varies significantly in space and time, yet is often estimated from sparse gauge networks. Recent work showed that current calibration methods (e.g., standard least squares, multi-objective calibration, generalized likelihood uncertainty estimation) ignore forcing uncertainty and assume that the rainfall is known exactly. Consequently, they can yield strongly biased and misleading parameter estimates. This deficiency confounds attempts to reliably test model hypotheses, to generalize results across catchments (the regionalization problem) and to quantify predictive uncertainty when the hydrologic model is extrapolated. This paper continues the development of a Bayesian total error analysis (BATEA) methodology for the calibration and identification of hydrologic models, which explicitly incorporates the uncertainty in both the forcing and response data, and allows systematic model comparison based on residual model errors and formal Bayesian hypothesis testing (e.g., using Bayes factors). BATEA is based on explicit stochastic models for both forcing and response uncertainty, whereas current techniques focus solely on response errors. Hence, unlike existing methods, the BATEA parameter equations directly reflect the modeler's confidence in all the data. We compare several approaches to approximating the parameter distributions: a) full Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods and b) simplified approaches based on linear approximations. Studies using synthetic and real data from the US and Australia show that BATEA systematically reduces the parameter bias, leads to more meaningful model fits and allows model comparison taking into account forcing uncertainty. The full MCMC approach also yields estimates of the true forcing (conditioned on the model assumptions), which can be used to improve data collection. We expect the ability to meaningfully disaggregate sources of uncertainty to be of significant benefit in hydrology and environmental modeling in general.

  4. Catchment variability and parameter estimation in multi-objective regionalisation of a rainfall-runoff model

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Deckers, Dave L.E.H.; Booij, Martijn J.; Rientjes, T.H.M.; Krol, Martinus S.

    2010-01-01

    This study attempts to examine if catchment variability favours regionalisation by principles of catchment similarity. Our work combines calibration of a simple conceptual model for multiple objectives and multi-regression analyses to establish a regional model between model sensitive parameters and

  5. Stochastic rainfall-runoff forecasting: parameter estimation, multi-step prediction, and evaluation of overflow risk

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Löwe, Roland; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen; Madsen, Henrik

    2014-01-01

    Probabilistic runoff forecasts generated by stochastic greybox models can be notably useful for the improvement of the decision-making process in real-time control setups for urban drainage systems because the prediction risk relationships in these systems are often highly nonlinear. To date...... the identification of models for cases with noisy in-sewer observations. For the prediction of the overflow risk, no improvement was demonstrated through the application of stochastic forecasts instead of point predictions, although this result is thought to be caused by the notably simplified setup used...

  6. rainfall runoff model for cala noff model for calabar metropolis u

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    eobe

    developed for drains design and analysis for Calabar. Keywords: .... urban growth has, over the years, resulted in land use changes and ... network, reduce the flood storage and overwhelm the carrying ... quality issues, as well as regional issues [3]. Storm water ..... SWAT: Case Study Of Upstream watershed of Jebba.

  7. Space-time-frequency analysis of rainfall, runoff and temperature in ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    drinie

    2002-07-03

    Jul 3, 2002 ... from two upstream stations were used to develop a procedure for estimating runoff from the annual .... parts: the basin network under tidal influence and the continental ... Using the power transformation method (Chander.

  8. Turbid releases from Glen Canyon Dam, Arizona, following rainfall-runoff events of September 2013

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wildman, Richard A.; Vernieu, William

    2017-01-01

    Glen Canyon Dam is a large dam on the Colorado River in Arizona. In September 2013, it released turbid water following intense thunderstorms in the surrounding area. Turbidity was >15 nephelometric turbidity units (NTU) for multiple days and >30 NTU at its peak. These unprecedented turbid releases impaired downstream fishing activity and motivated a rapid-response field excursion. At 5 locations upstream from the dam, temperature, specific conductance, dissolved oxygen, chlorophyll a, and turbidity were measured in vertical profiles. Local streamflow and rainfall records were retrieved, and turbidity and specific conductance data in dam releases were evaluated. Profiling was conducted to determine possible sources of turbidity from 3 tributaries nearest the dam, Navajo, Antelope, and Wahweap creeks, which entered Lake Powell as interflows during this study. We discuss 4 key conditions that must have been met for tributaries to influence turbidity of dam releases: tributary flows must have reached the dam, tributary flows must have been laden with sediment, inflow currents must have been near the depth of dam withdrawals, and the settling velocity of particles must have been slow. We isolate 2 key uncertainties that reservoir managers should resolve in future similar studies: the reach of tributary water into the reservoir thalweg and the distribution of particle size of suspended sediment. These uncertainties leave the source of the turbidity ambiguous, although an important role for Wahweap Creek is possible. The unique combination of limnological factors we describe implies that turbid releases at Glen Canyon Dam will continue to be rare.

  9. Seasonal rainfall-runoff relationships in a lowland forested watershed in the southeastern USA

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ileana La Torre Torres; Devendra Amatya; Ge Sun; Timothy Callahan

    2011-01-01

    Hydrological processes of lowland watersheds of the southern USA are not well understood compared to a hilly landscape due to their unique topography, soil compositions, and climate. This study describes the seasonal relationships between rainfall patterns and runoff (sum of storm flow and base flow) using 13 years (1964–1976) of rainfall and stream flow data for a low...

  10. Extension of the soil conservation service rainfall-runoff methodology for ungaged watersheds

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-07-01

    The estimation of direct runoff for ungaged watersheds is a common problem in : engineering hydrology. The method of the Soil Conservation Services (SCS) is widely used due to its ease of application. Runoff estimates are based upon the soil types an...

  11. Off site transport of fungicides with snowmelt and rainfall runoff from golf course fairway turf

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pesticides associated with the turfgrass industry have been detected in storm runoff and surface waters of urban watersheds; inferring contaminant contributions from residential, urban, and recreational sources. Golf course turf often requires multiple applications of pesticides at rates that exceed...

  12. The role of bedrock groundwater in rainfall-runoff response at hillslope and catchment scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    C. Gabrielli; J.J. McDonnell; W.T. Jarvis

    2012-01-01

    Bedrock groundwater dynamics in headwater catchments are poorly understood and poorly characterized. Direct hydrometric measurements have been limited due to the logistical challenges associated with drilling through hard rock in steep, remote and often roadless terrain. We used a new portable bedrock drilling system to explore bedrock groundwater dynamics aimed at...

  13. Nonmonotonic and spatial-temporal dynamic slope effects on soil erosion during rainfall-runoff processes

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Songbai; Yu, Minghui; Chen, Li

    2017-02-01

    The slope effect on flow erosivity and soil erosion still remains a controversial issue. This theoretical framework explained and quantified the direct slope effect by coupling the modified Green-Ampt equation accounting for slope effect on infiltration, 1-D kinematic wave overland flow routing model, and WEPP soil erosion model. The flow velocity, runoff rate, shear stress, interrill, and rill erosion were calculated on 0°-60° isotropic slopes with equal horizontal projective length. The results show that, for short-duration rainfall events, the flow erosivity and erosion amounts exhibit a bell-shaped trend which first increase with slope gradient, and then decrease after a critical slope angle. The critical slope angles increase significantly or even vanish with increasing rainfall duration but are nearly independent of the slope projective length. The soil critical shear stress, rainfall intensity, and temporal patterns have great influences on the slope effect trend, while the other soil erosion parameters, soil type, hydraulic conductivity, and antecedent soil moisture have minor impacts. Neglecting the slope effect on infiltration would generate smaller erosion and reduce critical slope angles. The relative slope effect on soil erosion in physically based model WEPP was compared to those in the empirical models USLE and RUSLE. The trends of relative slope effect were found quite different, but the difference may diminish with increasing rainfall duration. Finally, relatively smaller critical slope angles could be obtained with the equal slope length and the range of variation provides a possible explanation for the different critical slope angles reported in previous studies.

  14. The role of bedrock groundwater in rainfall-runoff response at hillslope and catchment scales

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gabrielli, C. P.; McDonnell, J. J.; Jarvis, W. T.

    2012-07-01

    SummaryBedrock groundwater dynamics in headwater catchments are poorly understood and poorly characterized. Direct hydrometric measurements have been limited due to the logistical challenges associated with drilling through hard rock in steep, remote and often roadless terrain. We used a new portable bedrock drilling system to explore bedrock groundwater dynamics aimed at quantifying bedrock groundwater contributions to hillslope flow and catchment runoff. We present results from the Maimai M8 research catchment in New Zealand and Watershed 10 (WS10) at the H.J. Andrews Experimental Forest in Oregon, USA. Analysis of bedrock groundwater at Maimai, through a range of flow conditions, revealed that the bedrock water table remained below the soil-bedrock interface, indicating that the bedrock aquifer has minimal direct contributions to event-based hillslope runoff. However, the bedrock water table did respond significantly to storm events indicating that there is a direct connection between hillslope processes and the underlying bedrock aquifer. WS10 groundwater dynamics were dominated by fracture flow. A highly fractured and transmissive zone within the upper one meter of bedrock conducted rapid lateral subsurface stormflow and lateral discharge. The interaction of subsurface stormflow with bedrock storage directly influenced the measured hillslope response, solute transport and computed mean residence time. This research reveals bedrock groundwater to be an extremely dynamic component of the hillslope hydrological system and our comparative analysis illustrates the potential range of hydrological and geological controls on runoff generation in headwater catchments.

  15. Choosing an Appropriate Hydrological Model for Rainfall-Runoff Extremes in Small Catchments

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kovář, P.; Hrabalíková, M.; Neruda, M.; Neruda, Roman; Šrejber, J.; Jelínková, A.; Bačinová, H.

    2015-01-01

    Roč. 10, č. 3 (2015), s. 137-146 ISSN 1801-5395 Grant - others:GA TA ČR(CZ) TA02020402 Institutional support: RVO:67985807 Keywords : flood prediction * infiltration * Jizerské hory Mts. * kinematic wave * neural network Subject RIV: IN - Informatics, Computer Science Impact factor: 0.580, year: 2015

  16. Heavy rains and extreme rainfall-runoff events in Central Europe from 1951 to 2002

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Müller, Miloslav; Kašpar, Marek; Matschullat, J.

    2009-01-01

    Roč. 9, č. 2 (2009), s. 441-450 ISSN 1561-8633 R&D Projects: GA AV ČR KJB300420701; GA AV ČR KJB300420802 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z30420517 Keywords : weather extreme * extreme precipitation * rain flood Subject RIV: DG - Athmosphere Sciences, Meteorology Impact factor: 1.357, year: 2009 http://www.nat-hazards-earth-syst-sci.net/9/451/2009/

  17. Climatic and basin factors affecting the flood frequency curve: PART II – A full sensitivity analysis based on the continuous simulation approach combined with a factorial experimental design

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. Franchini

    2000-01-01

    Full Text Available The sensitivity analysis described in Hashemi et al. (2000 is based on one-at-a-time perturbations to the model parameters. This type of analysis cannot highlight the presence of parameter interactions which might indeed affect the characteristics of the flood frequency curve (ffc even more than the individual parameters. For this reason, the effects of the parameters of the rainfall, rainfall runoff models and of the potential evapotranspiration demand on the ffc are investigated here through an analysis of the results obtained from a factorial experimental design, where all the parameters are allowed to vary simultaneously. This latter, more complex, analysis confirms the results obtained in Hashemi et al. (2000 thus making the conclusions drawn there of wider validity and not related strictly to the reference set selected. However, it is shown that two-factor interactions are present not only between different pairs of parameters of an individual model, but also between pairs of parameters of different models, such as rainfall and rainfall-runoff models, thus demonstrating the complex interaction between climate and basin characteristics affecting the ffc and in particular its curvature. Furthermore, the wider range of climatic regime behaviour produced within the factorial experimental design shows that the probability distribution of soil moisture content at the storm arrival time is no longer sufficient to explain the link between the perturbations to the parameters and their effects on the ffc, as was suggested in Hashemi et al. (2000. Other factors have to be considered, such as the probability distribution of the soil moisture capacity, and the rainfall regime, expressed through the annual maximum rainfalls over different durations. Keywords: Monte Carlo simulation; factorial experimental design; analysis of variance (ANOVA

  18. Estimating international interindustry linkages : Non-survey simulations of the Asian-Pacific economy

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Oosterhaven, J.; Stelder, T.M.

    2008-01-01

    This paper evaluates a recently published semi-survey international input-output table for nine East-Asian countries and the USA with four non-survey estimation alternatives. A new generalized RAS procedure is used with stepwise increasing information from both import and export statistics as

  19. Window opening behaviour: simulations of occupant behaviour in residential buildings using models based on a field survey

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Valentina, Fabi; Andersen, Rune Korsholm; Corgnati, Stefano Paolo

    2012-01-01

    Window opening behaviour has been shown to have a significant impact on airflow rates and hence energy consumption. Nevertheless, the inhabitant behaviour related to window opening in residential buildings is currently poorly investigated through both field surveys and building energy simulations....... In particular, reliable information regarding user behaviour in residential buildings is crucial for suitable prediction of building performance (energy consumption, indoor environmental quality, etc.). To face this issue, measurements of indoor climate and outdoor environmental parameters and window “opening...... and closing” actions were performed in 15 dwellings from January to August 2008 in Denmark. Probabilistic models of inhabitants’ window “opening and closing” behaviour were developed and implemented in the energy simulation software IDA ICE to improve window opening and closing strategies in simulations...

  20. Simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Ngada, Narcisse

    2015-06-15

    The complexity and cost of building and running high-power electrical systems make the use of simulations unavoidable. The simulations available today provide great understanding about how systems really operate. This paper helps the reader to gain an insight into simulation in the field of power converters for particle accelerators. Starting with the definition and basic principles of simulation, two simulation types, as well as their leading tools, are presented: analog and numerical simulations. Some practical applications of each simulation type are also considered. The final conclusion then summarizes the main important items to keep in mind before opting for a simulation tool or before performing a simulation.

  1. Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope [WFIRST]: telescope design and simulated performance

    Science.gov (United States)

    Goullioud, R.; Content, D. A.; Kuan, G. M.; Moore, J. D.; Chang, Z.; Sunada, E. T.; Villalvazo, J.; Hawk, J. P.; Armani, N. V.; Johnson, E. L.; Powell, C. A.

    2012-09-01

    The Wide Field Infrared Survey Telescope (WFIRST) mission concept was ranked first in new space astrophysics missions by the Astro2010 Decadal Survey, incorporating the Joint Dark Energy Mission payload concept and multiple science white papers. This mission is based on a space telescope at L2 studying exoplanets [via gravitational microlensing], probing dark energy, and surveying the near infrared sky. Since the release of the Astro2010 Decadal Survey, the team has been working with the WFIRST Science Definition Team to refine mission and payload concepts. We present the current interim reference mission point design of the payload, based on the use of a 1.3m unobscured aperture three mirror anastigmat form, with focal imaging and slit-less spectroscopy science channels. We also present the first results of Structural/Thermal/Optical performance modeling of the telescope point design.

  2. Medium-term erosion simulation of an abandoned mine site using the SIBERIA landscape evolution model

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hancock, G.R.; Willgoose, G.R.

    2000-01-01

    This study forms part of a collaborative project designed to validate the long-term erosion predictions of the SIBERIA landform evolution model on rehabilitated mine sites. The SIBERIA catchment evolution model can simulate the evolution of landforms resulting from runoff and erosion over many years. SIBERIA needs to be calibrated before evaluating whether it correctly models the observed evolution of rehabilitated mine landforms. A field study to collect data to calibrate SIBERIA was conducted at the abandoned Scinto 6 uranium mine located in the Kakadu Region, Northern Territory, Australia. The data were used to fit parameter values to a sediment loss model and a rainfall-runoff model. The derived runoff and erosion model parameter values were used in SIBERIA to simulate 50 years of erosion by concentrated flow on the batters of the abandoned site. The SIBERIA runs correctly simulated the geomorphic development of the gullies on the man-made batters of the waste rock dump. The observed gully position, depth, volume, and morphology on the waste rock dump were quantitatively compared with the SIBERIA simulations. The close similarities between the observed and simulated gully features indicate that SIBERIA can accurately predict the rate of gully development on a man-made post-mining landscape over periods of up to 50 years. SIBERIA is an appropriate model for assessment of erosional stability of rehabilitated mine sites over time spans of around 50 years. Copyright (2000) CSIRO Australia

  3. Survey of outcomes in a faculty development program on simulation pedagogy.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Roh, Young Sook; Kim, Mi Kang; Tangkawanich, Thitiarpha

    2016-06-01

    Although many nursing programs use simulation as a teaching-learning modality, there are few systematic approaches to help nursing educators learn this pedagogy. This study evaluates the effects of a simulation pedagogy nursing faculty development program on participants' learning perceptions using a retrospective pre-course and post-course design. Sixteen Thai participants completed a two-day nursing faculty development program on simulation pedagogy. Thirteen questionnaires were used in the final analysis. The participants' self-perceived learning about simulation teaching showed significant post-course improvement. On a five-point Likert scale, the composite mean attitude, subjective norm, and perceived behavioral control scores, as well as intention to use a simulator, showed a significant post-course increase. A faculty development program on simulation pedagogy induced favorable learning and attitudes. Further studies must test how faculty performance affects the cognitive, emotional, and social dimensions of learning in a simulation-based learning domain. © 2015 Wiley Publishing Asia Pty Ltd.

  4. Simulating future uncertainty to guide the selection of survey designs for long-term monitoring

    Science.gov (United States)

    Garman, Steven L.; Schweiger, E. William; Manier, Daniel J.; Gitzen, Robert A.; Millspaugh, Joshua J.; Cooper, Andrew B.; Licht, Daniel S.

    2012-01-01

    A goal of environmental monitoring is to provide sound information on the status and trends of natural resources (Messer et al. 1991, Theobald et al. 2007, Fancy et al. 2009). When monitoring observations are acquired by measuring a subset of the population of interest, probability sampling as part of a well-constructed survey design provides the most reliable and legally defensible approach to achieve this goal (Cochran 1977, Olsen et al. 1999, Schreuder et al. 2004; see Chapters 2, 5, 6, 7). Previous works have described the fundamentals of sample surveys (e.g. Hansen et al. 1953, Kish 1965). Interest in survey designs and monitoring over the past 15 years has led to extensive evaluations and new developments of sample selection methods (Stevens and Olsen 2004), of strategies for allocating sample units in space and time (Urquhart et al. 1993, Overton and Stehman 1996, Urquhart and Kincaid 1999), and of estimation (Lesser and Overton 1994, Overton and Stehman 1995) and variance properties (Larsen et al. 1995, Stevens and Olsen 2003) of survey designs. Carefully planned, “scientific” (Chapter 5) survey designs have become a standard in contemporary monitoring of natural resources. Based on our experience with the long-term monitoring program of the US National Park Service (NPS; Fancy et al. 2009; Chapters 16, 22), operational survey designs tend to be selected using the following procedures. For a monitoring indicator (i.e. variable or response), a minimum detectable trend requirement is specified, based on the minimum level of change that would result in meaningful change (e.g. degradation). A probability of detecting this trend (statistical power) and an acceptable level of uncertainty (Type I error; see Chapter 2) within a specified time frame (e.g. 10 years) are specified to ensure timely detection. Explicit statements of the minimum detectable trend, the time frame for detecting the minimum trend, power, and acceptable probability of Type I error (

  5. Simulation of variation of apparent resistivity in resistivity surveys using finite difference modelling with Monte Carlo analysis

    Science.gov (United States)

    Aguirre, E. E.; Karchewski, B.

    2017-12-01

    DC resistivity surveying is a geophysical method that quantifies the electrical properties of the subsurface of the earth by applying a source current between two electrodes and measuring potential differences between electrodes at known distances from the source. Analytical solutions for a homogeneous half-space and simple subsurface models are well known, as the former is used to define the concept of apparent resistivity. However, in situ properties are heterogeneous meaning that simple analytical models are only an approximation, and ignoring such heterogeneity can lead to misinterpretation of survey results costing time and money. The present study examines the extent to which random variations in electrical properties (i.e. electrical conductivity) affect potential difference readings and therefore apparent resistivities, relative to an assumed homogeneous subsurface model. We simulate the DC resistivity survey using a Finite Difference (FD) approximation of an appropriate simplification of Maxwell's equations implemented in Matlab. Electrical resistivity values at each node in the simulation were defined as random variables with a given mean and variance, and are assumed to follow a log-normal distribution. The Monte Carlo analysis for a given variance of electrical resistivity was performed until the mean and variance in potential difference measured at the surface converged. Finally, we used the simulation results to examine the relationship between variance in resistivity and variation in surface potential difference (or apparent resistivity) relative to a homogeneous half-space model. For relatively low values of standard deviation in the material properties (<10% of mean), we observed a linear correlation between variance of resistivity and variance in apparent resistivity.

  6. Prioritization in medical school simulation curriculum development using survey tools and desirability function: a pilot experiment.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ingrassia, Pier Luigi; Barozza, Ludovico Giovanni; Franc, Jeffrey Michael

    2018-01-01

    In Italy, there is no framework of procedural skills that all medical students should be able to perform autonomously at graduation. The study aims at identifying (1) a set of essential procedural skills and (2) which abilities could be potentially taught with simulation. Desirability score was calculated for each procedure to determine the most effective manner to proceed with simulation curriculum development. A web poll was conducted at the School of Medicine in Novara, looking at the level of expected and self-perceived competency for common medical procedures. Three groups were enrolled: (1) faculty, (2) junior doctors in their first years of practice, and (3) recently graduated medical students. Level of importance of procedural skills for independent practice expressed by teachers, level of mastery self-perceived by learners (students and junior doctors) and suitability of simulation training for the given technical skills were measured. Desirability function was used to set priorities for future learning. The overall mean expected level of competency for the procedural skills was 7.9/9. Mean level of self reported competency was 4.7/9 for junior doctors and 4.4/9 for recently graduated students. The highest priority skills according to the desirability function were urinary catheter placement, nasogastric tube insertion, and incision and drainage of superficial abscesses. This study identifies those technical competencies thought by faculty to be important and assessed the junior doctors and recent graduates level of self-perceived confidence in performing these skills. The study also identifies the perceived utility of teaching these skills by simulation. The study prioritizes those skills that have a gap between expected and observed competency and are also thought to be amenable to teaching by simulation. This allows immediate priorities for simulation curriculum development in the most effective manner. This methodology may be useful to researchers in

  7. Simulating deep surveys of the Galactic Plane with the Advanced Gamma-ray Imaging System (AGIS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Funk, Stefan; Digel, Seth

    2009-05-01

    The pioneering survey of the Galactic plane by H.E.S.S., together with the northern complement now underway with VERITAS, has shown the inner Milky Way to be rich in TeV-emitting sources; new source classes have been found among the H.E.S.S. detections and unidentified sources remain. In order to explore optimizations of the design of an Advanced Gamma-ray Imaging System (AGIS)-like instrument for survey science, we constructed a model of the flux and size distributions of Galactic TeV sources, normalized to the H.E.S.S. sources but extrapolated to lower flux levels. We investigated potential outcomes from a survey with the order of magnitude improvement in sensitivity and attendant improvement in angular resolution planned for AGIS. Studies of individual sources and populations found with such a sensitivity survey will advance understanding of astrophysical particle acceleration, source populations, and even high-energy cosmic rays via detection of the low-level TeV diffuse emission in regions of high cosmic-ray densitiy.

  8. Empirically simulated study to compare and validate sampling methods used in aerial surveys of wildlife populations

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Khaemba, W.M.; Stein, A.; Rasch, D.; Leeuw, de J.; Georgiadis, N.

    2001-01-01

    This paper compares the distribution, sampling and estimation of abundance for two animal species in an African ecosystem by means of an intensive simulation of the sampling process under a geographical information system (GIS) environment. It focuses on systematic and random sampling designs,

  9. Survey on Projects at DLR Simulation and Software Technology with Focus on Software Engineering and HPC

    OpenAIRE

    Schreiber, Andreas; Basermann, Achim

    2013-01-01

    We introduce the DLR institute “Simulation and Software Technology” (SC) and present current activities regarding software engineering and high performance computing (HPC) in German or international projects. Software engineering at SC focusses on data and knowledge management as well as tools for studies and experiments. We discuss how we apply software configuration management, validation and verification in our projects. Concrete research topics are traceability of (software devel...

  10. Gypsies in the palace: Experimentalist's view on the use of 3-D physics-based simulation of hillslope hydrological response

    Science.gov (United States)

    James, A.L.; McDonnell, Jeffery J.; Tromp-Van Meerveld, I.; Peters, N.E.

    2010-01-01

    As a fundamental unit of the landscape, hillslopes are studied for their retention and release of water and nutrients across a wide range of ecosystems. The understanding of these near-surface processes is relevant to issues of runoff generation, groundwater-surface water interactions, catchment export of nutrients, dissolved organic carbon, contaminants (e.g. mercury) and ultimately surface water health. We develop a 3-D physics-based representation of the Panola Mountain Research Watershed experimental hillslope using the TOUGH2 sub-surface flow and transport simulator. A recent investigation of sub-surface flow within this experimental hillslope has generated important knowledge of threshold rainfall-runoff response and its relation to patterns of transient water table development. This work has identified components of the 3-D sub-surface, such as bedrock topography, that contribute to changing connectivity in saturated zones and the generation of sub-surface stormflow. Here, we test the ability of a 3-D hillslope model (both calibrated and uncalibrated) to simulate forested hillslope rainfall-runoff response and internal transient sub-surface stormflow dynamics. We also provide a transparent illustration of physics-based model development, issues of parameterization, examples of model rejection and usefulness of data types (e.g. runoff, mean soil moisture and transient water table depth) to the model enterprise. Our simulations show the inability of an uncalibrated model based on laboratory and field characterization of soil properties and topography to successfully simulate the integrated hydrological response or the distributed water table within the soil profile. Although not an uncommon result, the failure of the field-based characterized model to represent system behaviour is an important challenge that continues to vex scientists at many scales. We focus our attention particularly on examining the influence of bedrock permeability, soil anisotropy and

  11. A Survey of Open-Source UAV Flight Controllers and Flight Simulators

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Ebeid, Emad Samuel Malki; Skriver, Martin; Terkildsen, Kristian Husum

    2018-01-01

    , which are all tightly linked to the UAV flight controller hardware and software. The lack of standardization of flight controller architectures and the use of proprietary closed-source flight controllers on many UAV platforms, however, complicates this work: solutions developed for one flight controller...... may be difficult to port to another without substantial extra development and testing. Using open-source flight controllers mitigates some of these challenges and enables other researchers to validate and build upon existing research. This paper presents a survey of the publicly available open...

  12. [Non-linear System Dynamics Simulation Modeling of Adolescent Obesity: Using Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey].

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lee, Hanna; Park, Eun Suk; Yu, Jae Kook; Yun, Eun Kyoung

    2015-10-01

    The purpose of this study was to develop a system dynamics model for adolescent obesity in Korea that could be used for obesity policy analysis. On the basis of the casual loop diagram, a model was developed by converting to stock and flow diagram. The Vensim DSS 5.0 program was used in the model development. We simulated method of moments to the calibration of this model with data from The Korea Youth Risk Behavior Web-based Survey 2005 to 2013. We ran the scenario simulation. This model can be used to understand the current adolescent obesity rate, predict the future obesity rate, and be utilized as a tool for controlling the risk factors. The results of the model simulation match well with the data. It was identified that a proper model, able to predict obesity probability, was established. These results of stock and flow diagram modeling in adolescent obesity can be helpful in development of obesity by policy planners and other stakeholders to better anticipate the multiple effects of interventions in both the short and the long term. In the future we suggest the development of an expanded model based on this adolescent obesity model.

  13. Survey of simulation methods for modeling pulsed sieve-plate extraction columns

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Burkhart, L.

    1979-03-01

    The report first considers briefly the use of liquid-liquid extraction in nuclear fuel reprocessing and then describes the operation of the pulse column. Currently available simulation models of the column are reviewed, and followed by an analysis of the information presently available from which the necessary parameters can be obtained for use in a model of the column. Finally, overall conclusions are given regarding the information needed to develop an accurate model of the column for materials accountability in fuel reprocessing plants. 156 references

  14. Use of a surface contamination survey simulation program and its effects

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Onuma, Isamu; Kobayashi, Makoto; Umehara, Takashi; Shimizu, Isamu

    2012-01-01

    A computer simulation program has been developed to train the practitioners examining the surface contamination of objects to be carried out from the controlled area. The efficiency of the examination depends significantly on the proficiency in radiation measurement and proper perception of contamination. It has been demonstrated through the usage of the program that it helps practitioners very much suggest their weakness and promote their skill in examination. The program runs on the commonly used personal computers and users can easily experience the virtual examination by sweeping and cricking the mouse. The program is useful to radiation protection practitioners not only beginners but also experts. (author)

  15. Cosmological implication of wide field Sunyaev-Zel'dovich galaxy clusters survey: exploration by simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Juin, Jean-Baptiste

    2005-01-01

    The goal of my Phd research is to prepare the data analysis of the near future wide-field observations of galaxy clusters detected by Sunyaev Zel'dovitch effect. I set up a complete chain of original tools to carry out this study. These tools allow me to highlight critical and important points of selection effects that has to be taken into account in future analysis. Analysis chain is composed by: a simulation of observed millimeter sky, state-of-the-art algorithms of SZ galaxy clusters extraction from observed maps, a statistical model of selection effects of the whole detection chain and, finally, tools to constrain, from detected SZ sources catalog, the cosmological parameters. I focus myself on multi-channel experiments equipped with large bolometer camera. I use these tools for a prospecting on Olimpo experiment. (author) [fr

  16. Robotic surgery training with commercially available simulation systems in 2011: a current review and practice pattern survey from the society of urologic robotic surgeons.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lallas, Costas D; Davis, John W

    2012-03-01

    Virtual reality (VR) simulation has the potential to standardize surgical training for robotic surgery. We sought to evaluate all commercially available VR robotic simulators. A MEDLINE(®) literature search was performed of all applicable keywords. Available VR simulators were evaluated with regard to face, content, and construct validation. Additionally, a survey was e-mailed to all members of the Endourological Society, querying the pervasiveness of VR simulators in robotic surgical training. Finally, each company was e-mailed to ask for a price quote for their respective system. There are four VR robotic surgical simulators currently available: RoSS™, dV-Trainer™, SEP Robot™, and da Vinci(®) Skills Simulator™. Each system is represented in the literature and all possess varying degrees of face, content, and construct validity. Although all systems have basic skill sets with performance analysis and metrics software, most do not contain procedural components. When evaluating the results of our survey, most respondents did not possess a VR simulator although almost all believed there to be great potential for these devices in robotic surgical training. With the exception of the SEP Robot, all VR simulators are similar in price. VR simulators have a definite role in the future of robotic surgical training. Although the simulators target technical components of training, their largest impact will be appreciated when incorporated into a comprehensive educational curriculum.

  17. Simulation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Gould, Derek A; Chalmers, Nicholas; Johnson, Sheena J

    2012-01-01

    Recognition of the many limitations of traditional apprenticeship training is driving new approaches to learning medical procedural skills. Among simulation technologies and methods available today, computer-based systems are topical and bring the benefits of automated, repeatable, and reliable p...... performance assessments. Human factors research is central to simulator model development that is relevant to real-world imaging-guided interventional tasks and to the credentialing programs in which it would be used....

  18. An Application of a Stochastic Semi-Continuous Simulation Method for Flood Frequency Analysis: A Case Study in Slovakia

    Science.gov (United States)

    Valent, Peter; Paquet, Emmanuel

    2017-09-01

    A reliable estimate of extreme flood characteristics has always been an active topic in hydrological research. Over the decades a large number of approaches and their modifications have been proposed and used, with various methods utilizing continuous simulation of catchment runoff, being the subject of the most intensive research in the last decade. In this paper a new and promising stochastic semi-continuous method is used to estimate extreme discharges in two mountainous Slovak catchments of the rivers Váh and Hron, in which snow-melt processes need to be taken into account. The SCHADEX method used, couples a precipitation probabilistic model with a rainfall-runoff model used to both continuously simulate catchment hydrological conditions and to transform generated synthetic rainfall events into corresponding discharges. The stochastic nature of the method means that a wide range of synthetic rainfall events were simulated on various historical catchment conditions, taking into account not only the saturation of soil, but also the amount of snow accumulated in the catchment. The results showed that the SCHADEX extreme discharge estimates with return periods of up to 100 years were comparable to those estimated by statistical approaches. In addition, two reconstructed historical floods with corresponding return periods of 100 and 1000 years were compared to the SCHADEX estimates. The results confirmed the usability of the method for estimating design discharges with a recurrence interval of more than 100 years and its applicability in Slovak conditions.

  19. Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Ross, Sheldon

    2006-01-01

    Ross's Simulation, Fourth Edition introduces aspiring and practicing actuaries, engineers, computer scientists and others to the practical aspects of constructing computerized simulation studies to analyze and interpret real phenomena. Readers learn to apply results of these analyses to problems in a wide variety of fields to obtain effective, accurate solutions and make predictions about future outcomes. This text explains how a computer can be used to generate random numbers, and how to use these random numbers to generate the behavior of a stochastic model over time. It presents the statist

  20. A holistic water depth simulation model for small ponds

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ali, Shakir; Ghosh, Narayan C.; Mishra, P. K.; Singh, R. K.

    2015-10-01

    Estimation of time varying water depth and time to empty of a pond is prerequisite for comprehensive and coordinated planning of water resource for its effective utilization. A holistic water depth simulation (HWDS) and time to empty (TE) model for small, shallow ephemeral ponds have been derived by employing the generalized model based on the Green-Ampt equation in the basic water balance equation. The HWDS model includes time varying rainfall, runoff, surface water evaporation, outflow and advancement of wetting front length as external inputs. The TE model includes two external inputs; surface water evaporation and advancement of wetting front length. Both the models also consider saturated hydraulic conductivity and fillable porosity of the pond's bed material as their parameters. The solution of the HWDS model involved numerical iteration in successive time intervals. The HWDS model has successfully evaluated with 3 years of field data from two small ponds located within a watershed in a semi-arid region in western India. The HWDS model simulated time varying water depth in the ponds with high accuracy as shown by correlation coefficient (R2 ⩾ 0.9765), index of agreement (d ⩾ 0.9878), root mean square errors (RMSE ⩽ 0.20 m) and percent bias (PB ⩽ 6.23%) for the pooled data sets of the measured and simulated water depth. The statistical F and t-tests also confirmed the reliability of the HWDS model at probability level, p ⩽ 0.0001. The response of the TE model showed its ability to estimate the time to empty the ponds. An additional field calibration and validation of the HWDS and TE models with observed field data in varied hydro-climatic conditions could be conducted to increase the applicability and credibility of the models.

  1. Continuous Sub-daily Rainfall Simulation for Regional Flood Risk Assessment - Modelling of Spatio-temporal Correlation Structure of Extreme Precipitation in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, J. L.; Nester, T.; Komma, J.; Bloeschl, G.

    2017-12-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, and spatial and temporal correlations is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks, by reproducing antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events, and joint probability of flood waves at confluences. In this work, a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is first modeled on a station basis as a multivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space. The spatial and temporal correlation structures are imposed in the Normal space, allowing for a different temporal autocorrelation parameter for each station, and simultaneously ensuring the positive-definiteness of the correlation matrix of the mAr errors. The Normal rainfall is then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space, with parameters varying monthly according to a sinusoidal function, in order to adapt to the observed rainfall seasonality. One of the main differences with the original model is the simulation time-step, reduced from 24h to 6h. Due to a larger availability of daily rainfall data, as opposite to sub-daily (e.g. hourly), the parameters of the Gamma distributions are calibrated to reproduce simultaneously a series of daily rainfall characteristics (mean daily rainfall, standard deviations of daily rainfall, and 24h intensity-duration-frequency [IDF] curves), as well as other aggregated rainfall measures (mean annual rainfall, and monthly rainfall). The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the catchment-averaged IDF curves aggregated at different temporal scales fit the measured ones. The rainfall model is used to generate 10.000 years of synthetic

  2. Effects of Land Use Changes on the Runoff in the Landscape Based on Hydrological Simulation in HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS Using Different Elevation Data

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Josef Divín

    2016-01-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to determine the effects of land use changes on the runoff in the landscape by means of hydrological modelling. Our partial aim is also to determine the effect of different elevation data and define optimal data sources for this modelling. The research was conducted on the Starozuberský stream experimental watershed. For comparing elevation models, three scenarios were developed with different input data. Based on a comparison of these models an optimal data source for hydrological modelling was selected. To simulate the change in land use, we have created two scenarios based either upon the current land use and historical data from the fifties of the twentieth century. Comparison was carried out using the HEC-HMS software interface for rainfall-runoff simulation and HEC-RAS for the flooding simulation. Data for the simulation were prepared using the ESRI ArcGIS extensions, namely HEC- GeoHMS and HEC-GeoRAS.

  3. Continuous rainfall simulation for regional flood risk assessment - application in the Austrian Alps

    Science.gov (United States)

    Salinas, Jose Luis; Nester, Thomas; Komma, Jürgen; Blöschl, Günter

    2017-04-01

    Generation of realistic synthetic spatial rainfall is of pivotal importance for assessing regional hydroclimatic hazard as the input for long term rainfall-runoff simulations. The correct reproduction of the observed rainfall characteristics, such as regional intensity-duration-frequency curves, is necessary to adequately model the magnitude and frequency of the flood peaks. Furthermore, the replication of the observed rainfall spatial and temporal correlations allows to model important other hydrological features like antecedent soil moisture conditions before extreme rainfall events. In this work, we present an application in the Tirol region (Austrian alps) of a modification of the model presented by Bardossy and Platte (1992), where precipitation is modeled on a station basis as a mutivariate autoregressive model (mAr) in a Normal space, and then transformed to a Gamma-distributed space. For the sake of simplicity, the parameters of the Gamma distributions are assumed to vary monthly according to a sinusoidal function, and are calibrated trying to simultaneously reproduce i) mean annual rainfall, ii) mean daily rainfall amounts, iii) standard deviations of daily rainfall amounts, and iv) 24-hours intensity duration frequency curve. The calibration of the spatial and temporal correlation parameters is performed in a way that the intensity-duration-frequency curves aggregated at different spatial and temporal scales reproduce the measured ones. Bardossy, A., and E. J. Plate (1992), Space-time model for daily rainfall using atmospheric circulation patterns, Water Resour. Res., 28(5), 1247-1259, doi:10.1029/91WR02589.

  4. The XXL Survey. I. Scientific motivations - XMM-Newton observing plan - Follow-up observations and simulation programme

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pierre, M.; Pacaud, F.; Adami, C.; Alis, S.; Altieri, B.; Baran, N.; Benoist, C.; Birkinshaw, M.; Bongiorno, A.; Bremer, M. N.; Brusa, M.; Butler, A.; Ciliegi, P.; Chiappetti, L.; Clerc, N.; Corasaniti, P. S.; Coupon, J.; De Breuck, C.; Democles, J.; Desai, S.; Delhaize, J.; Devriendt, J.; Dubois, Y.; Eckert, D.; Elyiv, A.; Ettori, S.; Evrard, A.; Faccioli, L.; Farahi, A.; Ferrari, C.; Finet, F.; Fotopoulou, S.; Fourmanoit, N.; Gandhi, P.; Gastaldello, F.; Gastaud, R.; Georgantopoulos, I.; Giles, P.; Guennou, L.; Guglielmo, V.; Horellou, C.; Husband, K.; Huynh, M.; Iovino, A.; Kilbinger, M.; Koulouridis, E.; Lavoie, S.; Le Brun, A. M. C.; Le Fevre, J. P.; Lidman, C.; Lieu, M.; Lin, C. A.; Mantz, A.; Maughan, B. J.; Maurogordato, S.; McCarthy, I. G.; McGee, S.; Melin, J. B.; Melnyk, O.; Menanteau, F.; Novak, M.; Paltani, S.; Plionis, M.; Poggianti, B. M.; Pomarede, D.; Pompei, E.; Ponman, T. J.; Ramos-Ceja, M. E.; Ranalli, P.; Rapetti, D.; Raychaudury, S.; Reiprich, T. H.; Rottgering, H.; Rozo, E.; Rykoff, E.; Sadibekova, T.; Santos, J.; Sauvageot, J. L.; Schimd, C.; Sereno, M.; Smith, G. P.; Smolčić, V.; Snowden, S.; Spergel, D.; Stanford, S.; Surdej, J.; Valageas, P.; Valotti, A.; Valtchanov, I.; Vignali, C.; Willis, J.; Ziparo, F.

    2016-06-01

    Context. The quest for the cosmological parameters that describe our universe continues to motivate the scientific community to undertake very large survey initiatives across the electromagnetic spectrum. Over the past two decades, the Chandra and XMM-Newton observatories have supported numerous studies of X-ray-selected clusters of galaxies, active galactic nuclei (AGNs), and the X-ray background. The present paper is the first in a series reporting results of the XXL-XMM survey; it comes at a time when the Planck mission results are being finalised. Aims: We present the XXL Survey, the largest XMM programme totaling some 6.9 Ms to date and involving an international consortium of roughly 100 members. The XXL Survey covers two extragalactic areas of 25 deg2 each at a point-source sensitivity of ~5 × 10-15 erg s-1 cm-2 in the [0.5-2] keV band (completeness limit). The survey's main goals are to provide constraints on the dark energy equation of state from the space-time distribution of clusters of galaxies and to serve as a pathfinder for future, wide-area X-ray missions. We review science objectives, including cluster studies, AGN evolution, and large-scale structure, that are being conducted with the support of approximately 30 follow-up programmes. Methods: We describe the 542 XMM observations along with the associated multi-λ and numerical simulation programmes. We give a detailed account of the X-ray processing steps and describe innovative tools being developed for the cosmological analysis. Results: The paper provides a thorough evaluation of the X-ray data, including quality controls, photon statistics, exposure and background maps, and sky coverage. Source catalogue construction and multi-λ associations are briefly described. This material will be the basis for the calculation of the cluster and AGN selection functions, critical elements of the cosmological and science analyses. Conclusions: The XXL multi-λ data set will have a unique lasting legacy

  5. COUNTS-IN-CYLINDERS IN THE SLOAN DIGITAL SKY SURVEY WITH COMPARISONS TO N-BODY SIMULATIONS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Berrier, Heather D.; Barton, Elizabeth J.; Bullock, James S.; Berrier, Joel C.; Zentner, Andrew R.; Wechsler, Risa H.

    2011-01-01

    Environmental statistics provide a necessary means of comparing the properties of galaxies in different environments, and a vital test of models of galaxy formation within the prevailing hierarchical cosmological model. We explore counts-in-cylinders, a common statistic defined as the number of companions of a particular galaxy found within a given projected radius and redshift interval. Galaxy distributions with the same two-point correlation functions do not necessarily have the same companion count distributions. We use this statistic to examine the environments of galaxies in the Sloan Digital Sky Survey Data Release 4 (SDSS DR4). We also make preliminary comparisons to four models for the spatial distributions of galaxies, based on N-body simulations and data from SDSS DR4, to study the utility of the counts-in-cylinders statistic. There is a very large scatter between the number of companions a galaxy has and the mass of its parent dark matter halo and the halo occupation, limiting the utility of this statistic for certain kinds of environmental studies. We also show that prevalent empirical models of galaxy clustering, that match observed two- and three-point clustering statistics well, fail to reproduce some aspects of the observed distribution of counts-in-cylinders on 1, 3, and 6 h -1 Mpc scales. All models that we explore underpredict the fraction of galaxies with few or no companions in 3 and 6 h -1 Mpc cylinders. Roughly 7% of galaxies in the real universe are significantly more isolated within a 6 h -1 Mpc cylinder than the galaxies in any of the models we use. Simple phenomenological models that map galaxies to dark matter halos fail to reproduce high-order clustering statistics in low-density environments.

  6. A rainfall-runoff model for two small ungauged catchment using the water balance of a reservoir for calibration

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    de Hamer, W.; Love, D.; Booij, Martijn J.; Hoekstra, Arjen Ysbert

    2007-01-01

    In semi‐arid regions, small artificial surface reservoirs are important to meet the domestic and agricultural water requirements of smallholder farmers. The research objective of the study was to determine the rainfall‐runoff relation of two ungauged rivers using the measured water levels of the

  7. Assessment of evapotranspiration and soil water content in the Kysuca River basin (Slovakia) using a rainfall-runoff model

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Košková, Romana; Němečková, Soňa; Sitková, Z.

    2008-01-01

    Roč. 4, č. 1 (2008), s. 012002 ISSN 1755-1315. [Conference of the Danubian Countries /24./. Bled, 02.06.2008-04.06.2008] R&D Projects: GA AV ČR(CZ) KJB300600602 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : hydrological modelling * soil water content * evapotranspiration * SWIM model Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology http://www.iop.org/EJ/abstract/1755-1315/4/1/012002

  8. Event-Based Analysis of Rainfall-Runoff Response to Assess Wetland-Stream Interaction in the Prairie Pothole Region

    Science.gov (United States)

    Haque, M. A.; Ross, C.; Schmall, A.; Bansah, S.; Ali, G.

    2016-12-01

    Process-based understanding of wetland response to precipitation is needed to quantify the extent to which non-floodplain wetlands - such as Prairie potholes - generate flow and transmit that flow to nearby streams. While measuring wetland-stream (W-S) interaction is difficult, it is possible to infer it by examining hysteresis characteristics between wetland and stream stage during individual precipitation events. Hence, to evaluate W-S interaction, 10 intact and 10 altered/lost potholes were selected for study; they are located in Broughton's Creek Watershed (Manitoba, Canada) on both sides of a 5 km creek reach. Stilling wells (i.e., above ground wells) were deployed in the intact and altered wetlands to monitor surface water level fluctuations while water table wells were drilled below drainage ditches to a depth of 1 m to monitor shallow groundwater fluctuations. All stilling wells and water table wells were equipped with capacitance water level loggers to monitor fluctuations in surface water and shallow groundwater every 15 minutes. In 2013 (normal year) and 2014 (wet year), 15+ precipitation events were identified and scatter plots of wetland (x-axis) versus stream (y-axis) stage were built to identify W-S hysteretic dynamics. Initial data analysis reveals that in dry antecedent conditions, intact and altered wetlands show clockwise W-S relations, while drained wetlands show anticlockwise W-S hysteresis. However, in wetter antecedent conditions, all wetland types show anticlockwise hysteresis. Future analysis will target the identification of thresholds in antecedent moisture conditions that determine significant changes in event wetland response characteristics (e.g., the delay between the start of rainfall and stream stage, the maximum water level rise in each wetland during each event, the delay between the start of rainfall and peak wetland stage) as well as hysteresis properties (e.g., gradient and area of the hysteresis loop).

  9. Rainfall-runoff-soil and nutrient loss relationships for plot size areas of bhetagad watershed in Central Himalaya, India

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kothyari, B. P.; Verma, P. K.; Joshi, B. K.; Kothyari, U. C.

    2004-06-01

    The Bhetagad watershed in Kumaon Hills of Central Himalaya represents for hydro-meteorological conditions of the middle mountains over the Hindu Kush Himalayas. This study was conducted to assess the runoff, soil loss and subsequent nutrient losses from different prominent land uses in the Bhetagad watershed of Central Himalayas. Four experimental natural plots each of 20 m length and 5 m width were delineated on four most common land covers viz, pine forests, tea plantation, rainfed agricultural and degraded lands. Monthly values of runoff, soil loss and nutrient loss, for four successive years (1998-2001), from these land uses were quantified following standard methodologies. The annual runoff in these plots ranged between 51 and 3593 m 3/ha while the annual soil loss varied between 0.06 and 5.47 tonnes/ha during the entire study period. The loss of organic matter was found to be maximum in plot having pine forest followed by plot having tea plantation as the land cover. Annual loss of total N (6.24 kg/ha), total P (3.88 kg/ha) and total K (5.98 kg/ha),per unit loss of soil (tonnes/ha), was maximum from the plot having rainfed agricultural crop as the land cover. The loss of total N ranged between 0.30 and 21.27 kg/ha, total P ranged between 0.14 and 9.42 kg/ha, total K ranged from 0.12 to 11.31 kg/ha whereas organic matter loss varied between 3.65 and 255.16 kg/ha, from different experimental plots. The findings will lead towards devising better conservation/management options for mountain land use systems.

  10. A simple rainfall-runoff model for the single and long term hydrological performance of green roofs

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Locatelli, Luca; Mark, Ole; Mikkelsen, Peter Steen

    Green roofs are being widely implemented for storm water control and runoff reduction. There is need for incorporating green roofs into urban drainage models in order to evaluate their impact. These models must have low computational costs and fine time resolution. This paper aims to develop...... a model of green roof hydrological performance. A simple conceptual model for the long term and single event hydrological performance of green roofs, shows to be capable of reproducing observed runoff measurements. The model has surface and subsurface storage components representing the overall retention...... capacity of the green roof. The runoff from the system is described by the non-linear reservoir method and the storage capacity of the green roof is continuously re-established by evapotranspiration. Runoff data from a green roof in Denmark are collected and used for parameter calibration....

  11. Rainfall-runoff modeling of the Chapel Branch Creek Watershed using GIS-based rational and SCS-CN methods

    Science.gov (United States)

    Elizabeth N. Mihalik; Norm S. Levine; Devendra M. Amatya

    2008-01-01

    Chapel Branch Creek (CBC), located within the Town of Santee adjacent to Lake Marion in Orangeburg County, SC, is listed on the SC 2004 303(d) list of impaired waterbodies due to elevated levels of nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), chlorophyll-a, and pH. In this study, using a GIS-based approach, two runoff modeling methods, the Rational and SCS-CN methods, have been...

  12. Scale effects of Hortonian overland flow and rainfall-runoff dynamics in a West African catena landscape

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Giesen, van de N.C.; Stomph, T.J.; Ridder, de N.

    2000-01-01

    Hortonian runoff was measured from plots with lengths of 1?25 and 12 m, and at watershed level for rainstorms during the 1996 rainy season in cental Côte d'Ivoire, Africa. A clear reduction in runoff coefficients was found with increasing slope lengths, giving order of magnitude differences between

  13. Scaling properties of rainfall-runoff generation processes and nutrient flushing mechanisms in the Oregon Cascade Mountain

    Science.gov (United States)

    Segura, C.; Nickolas, L. B.; Leshchinsky, B. A.

    2015-12-01

    Even though it is widely recognized that water quality and availability are crucial to society and wildlife sustainability, we are still not able to predict how much water is moved through a given catchment after a storm event nor what nutrients, solutes, and contaminates are mobilized. We will present preliminary results of a study incorporating of hydrometric information, water stable isotopes (δ18O), and concentrations of total nitrogen (TN), ammonia (NH3), and nitrate (NO3) within 4 sites in a nested framework at the HJ Andrews Experimental Forest (HJA), OR. Preliminary analysis of 2 storms (54mm and 145mm) indicate highly variable responses across space along with a positive relation between transit time of event water and storm magnitude in all catchments. In addition there appears to be a moisture threshold after which transit time scales with drainage area across the landscape likely related to higher degree of connectivity. We also found a strong correlation between transit times computed based on temporal variability of δ18O and electrical connectivity (EC). This lead to the analysis of over 50 storm across 10 catchments in the HJA during the last 3 years. In-stream NO3- during storm response are highest within the smaller catchments (1-5 km2) and tend to remain elevated throughout the response period. The larger catchments (15-64 km2) demonstrate smaller increases in NO3-, the response time lags behind that of the smaller catchments, and the concentration returns rapidly to baseflow conditions rather than remaining elevated. In contrast, in-stream NH3 show a higher degree of similarity between sites in terms of magnitude and timing of increases in concentration over the duration of the response period. Ultimately we found that fractions of inorganic nitrogen correlate with transit time and drainage area, opening the possibility of a catchment wide model of nutrient export prediction.

  14. The use of geostationary satellite based rainfall estimation and rainfall-runoff modelling for regional flash flood assessment

    OpenAIRE

    Suseno, Dwi Prabowo Yuga

    2013-01-01

    The availability of rainfall triggered hazard information such as flash flood is crucial in the flood disaster management and mitigation. However, providing that information is mainly hampered by the shortage of data because of the sparse, uneven or absence the hydrological or meteorological observation. Remote sensing techniques that make frequent observations with continuous spatial coverage provide useful information for detecting the hydrometeorological phenomena such as rainfall and floo...

  15. Assimilating Merged Remote Sensing and Ground based Snowpack Information for Runoff Simulation and Forecasting using Hydrological Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Infante Corona, J. A.; Lakhankar, T.; Khanbilvardi, R.; Pradhanang, S. M.

    2013-12-01

    Stream flow estimation and flood prediction influenced by snow melting processes have been studied for the past couple of decades because of their destruction potential, money losses and demises. It has been observed that snow, that was very stationary during its seasons, now is variable in shorter time-scales (daily and hourly) and rapid snowmelt can contribute or been the cause of floods. Therefore, good estimates of snowpack properties on ground are necessary in order to have an accurate prediction of these destructive events. The snow thermal model (SNTHERM) is a 1-dimensional model that analyzes the snowpack properties given the climatological conditions of a particular area. Gridded data from both, in-situ meteorological observations and remote sensing data will be produced using interpolation methods; thus, snow water equivalent (SWE) and snowmelt estimations can be obtained. The soil and water assessment tool (SWAT) is a hydrological model capable of predicting runoff quantity and quality of a watershed given its main physical and hydrological properties. The results from SNTHERM will be used as an input for SWAT in order to have simulated runoff under snowmelt conditions. This project attempts to improve the river discharge estimation considering both, excess rainfall runoff and the snow melting process. Obtaining a better estimation of the snowpack properties and evolution is expected. A coupled use of SNTHERM and SWAT based on meteorological in situ and remote sensed data will improve the temporal and spatial resolution of the snowpack characterization and river discharge estimations, and thus flood prediction.

  16. Method for Modeling High-Temporal-Resolution Stream Inflows in a Long-Term ParFlow.CLM Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Miller, G. R.; Merket, C.

    2017-12-01

    Traditional hydrologic modeling has compartmentalized the water cycle into distinct components (e.g. rainfall-runoff, river routing, or groundwater flow models). An integrated, process-based modeling framework assesses two or more of these components simultaneously, reducing the error associated with approximated boundary conditions. One integrated model, ParFlow.CLM, offers the advantage of parallel computing, but it lacks any mechanism for incorporating time-varying streamflow as an upstream boundary condition. Here, we present a generalized method for applying transient streamflow at an upstream boundary in ParFlow.CLM. Downstream flow values are compared to predictions by traditional runoff and routing methods as implemented in HEC-HMS. Additionally, we define a model spin-up process which includes initialization of steady-state streamflow. The upstream inflow method was successfully tested on two domains - one synthetic tilted V catchment and an idealized small stream catchment in the Brazos River Basin. The stream in the idealized domain is gaged at the upstream and downstream boundaries. Both tests assumed a homogeneous subsurface so that the efficacy of the transient streamflow method could be evaluated with minimal complications by groundwater interactions. In the tilted V catchment, spin-up criteria were achieved within 6 model years. A 25 x 25 x 66 cell model grid was run at a computational efficiency of values early in the simulation.

  17. Simulated JWST/NIRISS Spectroscopy of Anticipated TESS Planets and Selected Super-Earths Discovered from K2 and Ground-Based Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louie, Dana; Albert, Loic; Deming, Drake

    2017-01-01

    The 2018 launch of James Webb Space Telescope (JWST), coupled with the 2017 launch of the Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS), heralds a new era in Exoplanet Science, with TESS projected to detect over one thousand transiting sub-Neptune-sized planets (Ricker et al, 2014), and JWST offering unprecedented spectroscopic capabilities. Sullivan et al (2015) used Monte Carlo simulations to predict the properties of the planets that TESS is likely to detect, and published a catalog of 962 simulated TESS planets. Prior to TESS launch, the re-scoped Kepler K2 mission and ground-based surveys such as MEarth continue to seek nearby Earth-like exoplanets orbiting M-dwarf host stars. The exoplanet community will undoubtedly employ JWST for atmospheric characterization follow-up studies of promising exoplanets, but the targeted planets for these studies must be chosen wisely to maximize JWST science return. The goal of this project is to estimate the capabilities of JWST’s Near InfraRed Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (NIRISS)—operating with the GR700XD grism in Single Object Slitless Spectrography (SOSS) mode—during observations of exoplanets transiting their host stars. We compare results obtained for the simulated TESS planets, confirmed K2-discovered super-Earths, and exoplanets discovered using ground-based surveys. By determining the target planet characteristics that result in the most favorable JWST observing conditions, we can optimize the choice of target planets in future JWST follow-on atmospheric characterization studies.

  18. Why continuous simulation? The role of antecedent moisture in design flood estimation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pathiraja, S.; Westra, S.; Sharma, A.

    2012-06-01

    Continuous simulation for design flood estimation is increasingly becoming a viable alternative to traditional event-based methods. The advantage of continuous simulation approaches is that the catchment moisture state prior to the flood-producing rainfall event is implicitly incorporated within the modeling framework, provided the model has been calibrated and validated to produce reasonable simulations. This contrasts with event-based models in which both information about the expected sequence of rainfall and evaporation preceding the flood-producing rainfall event, as well as catchment storage and infiltration properties, are commonly pooled together into a single set of "loss" parameters which require adjustment through the process of calibration. To identify the importance of accounting for antecedent moisture in flood modeling, this paper uses a continuous rainfall-runoff model calibrated to 45 catchments in the Murray-Darling Basin in Australia. Flood peaks derived using the historical daily rainfall record are compared with those derived using resampled daily rainfall, for which the sequencing of wet and dry days preceding the heavy rainfall event is removed. The analysis shows that there is a consistent underestimation of the design flood events when antecedent moisture is not properly simulated, which can be as much as 30% when only 1 or 2 days of antecedent rainfall are considered, compared to 5% when this is extended to 60 days of prior rainfall. These results show that, in general, it is necessary to consider both short-term memory in rainfall associated with synoptic scale dependence, as well as longer-term memory at seasonal or longer time scale variability in order to obtain accurate design flood estimates.

  19. Using internal discharge data in a distributed conceptual model to reduce uncertainty in streamflow simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guerrero, J.; Halldin, S.; Xu, C.; Lundin, L.

    2011-12-01

    Distributed hydrological models are important tools in water management as they account for the spatial variability of the hydrological data, as well as being able to produce spatially distributed outputs. They can directly incorporate and assess potential changes in the characteristics of our basins. A recognized problem for models in general is equifinality, which is only exacerbated for distributed models who tend to have a large number of parameters. We need to deal with the fundamentally ill-posed nature of the problem that such models force us to face, i.e. a large number of parameters and very few variables that can be used to constrain them, often only the catchment discharge. There is a growing but yet limited literature showing how the internal states of a distributed model can be used to calibrate/validate its predictions. In this paper, a distributed version of WASMOD, a conceptual rainfall runoff model with only three parameters, combined with a routing algorithm based on the high-resolution HydroSHEDS data was used to simulate the discharge in the Paso La Ceiba basin in Honduras. The parameter space was explored using Monte-Carlo simulations and the region of space containing the parameter-sets that were considered behavioral according to two different criteria was delimited using the geometric concept of alpha-shapes. The discharge data from five internal sub-basins was used to aid in the calibration of the model and to answer the following questions: Can this information improve the simulations at the outlet of the catchment, or decrease their uncertainty? Also, after reducing the number of model parameters needing calibration through sensitivity analysis: Is it possible to relate them to basin characteristics? The analysis revealed that in most cases the internal discharge data can be used to reduce the uncertainty in the discharge at the outlet, albeit with little improvement in the overall simulation results.

  20. Large-scale derived flood frequency analysis based on continuous simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Dung Nguyen, Viet; Hundecha, Yeshewatesfa; Guse, Björn; Vorogushyn, Sergiy; Merz, Bruno

    2016-04-01

    There is an increasing need for spatially consistent flood risk assessments at the regional scale (several 100.000 km2), in particular in the insurance industry and for national risk reduction strategies. However, most large-scale flood risk assessments are composed of smaller-scale assessments and show spatial inconsistencies. To overcome this deficit, a large-scale flood model composed of a weather generator and catchments models was developed reflecting the spatially inherent heterogeneity. The weather generator is a multisite and multivariate stochastic model capable of generating synthetic meteorological fields (precipitation, temperature, etc.) at daily resolution for the regional scale. These fields respect the observed autocorrelation, spatial correlation and co-variance between the variables. They are used as input into catchment models. A long-term simulation of this combined system enables to derive very long discharge series at many catchment locations serving as a basic for spatially consistent flood risk estimates at the regional scale. This combined model was set up and validated for major river catchments in Germany. The weather generator was trained by 53-year observation data at 528 stations covering not only the complete Germany but also parts of France, Switzerland, Czech Republic and Australia with the aggregated spatial scale of 443,931 km2. 10.000 years of daily meteorological fields for the study area were generated. Likewise, rainfall-runoff simulations with SWIM were performed for the entire Elbe, Rhine, Weser, Donau and Ems catchments. The validation results illustrate a good performance of the combined system, as the simulated flood magnitudes and frequencies agree well with the observed flood data. Based on continuous simulation this model chain is then used to estimate flood quantiles for the whole Germany including upstream headwater catchments in neighbouring countries. This continuous large scale approach overcomes the several

  1. Causal factors of low stakeholder engagement : A survey of expert opinions in the context of healthcare simulation projects

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jahangirian, Mohsen; Borsci, Simone; Shah, Syed Ghulam Sarwar; Taylor, Simon J.E.

    2015-01-01

    While simulation methods have proved to be very effective in identifying efficiency gains, low stakeholder engagement creates a significant limitation on the achievement of simulation modeling projects in practice. This study reports causal factors—at two hierarchical levels (i.e., primary and

  2. Simulation Network for Test and Evaluation of Defense Systems. Phase I. Survey of DoD Testbed Requirements,

    Science.gov (United States)

    1983-05-15

    Interconnection (ISO 051) is the model used as a guide for this introduction to network protocols [30] T. Utsumi, " GLOSAS Project (GLObal Systems...Analysis and Simulation)," Proceedings of the 1980 Winter Simulation * Conference, Orlando, Fl., December, 1980, pp. 165-217. GLOSAS Project proposes the

  3. INFLUENCE OF RIVER BED ELEVATION SURVEY CONFIGURATIONS AND INTERPOLATION METHODS ON THE ACCURACY OF LIDAR DTM-BASED RIVER FLOW SIMULATIONS

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    J. R. Santillan

    2016-09-01

    Full Text Available In this paper, we investigated how survey configuration and the type of interpolation method can affect the accuracy of river flow simulations that utilize LIDAR DTM integrated with interpolated river bed as its main source of topographic information. Aside from determining the accuracy of the individually-generated river bed topographies, we also assessed the overall accuracy of the river flow simulations in terms of maximum flood depth and extent. Four survey configurations consisting of river bed elevation data points arranged as cross-section (XS, zig-zag (ZZ, river banks-centerline (RBCL, and river banks-centerline-zig-zag (RBCLZZ, and two interpolation methods (Inverse Distance-Weighted and Ordinary Kriging were considered. Major results show that the choice of survey configuration, rather than the interpolation method, has significant effect on the accuracy of interpolated river bed surfaces, and subsequently on the accuracy of river flow simulations. The RMSEs of the interpolated surfaces and the model results vary from one configuration to another, and depends on how each configuration evenly collects river bed elevation data points. The large RMSEs for the RBCL configuration and the low RMSEs for the XS configuration confirm that as the data points become evenly spaced and cover more portions of the river, the resulting interpolated surface and the river flow simulation where it was used also become more accurate. The XS configuration with Ordinary Kriging (OK as interpolation method provided the best river bed interpolation and river flow simulation results. The RBCL configuration, regardless of the interpolation algorithm used, resulted to least accurate river bed surfaces and simulation results. Based on the accuracy analysis, the use of XS configuration to collect river bed data points and applying the OK method to interpolate the river bed topography are the best methods to use to produce satisfactory river flow simulation outputs

  4. FY 2000 report on the survey on the future development of high grade board forming simulation technology; 2000 nendo kodoban seikei simulation gijutsu no kongo no tenkai ni kansuru chosa hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    For the purpose of achieving energy conservation by reducing weight of vehicles, survey was made of forming/processing technology of new materials such as high-tensile steel and aluminum alloys, and the future development was studied of 'high grade board forming simulation technology.' The subject of the board forming simulation is to develop a method to precisely predict dimensional accuracy (mainly spring back) and sectional shape. When applying the forming simulation technology to difficult-processing materials such as high-tensile steel and aluminum alloys and unknown materials such as super metal, subjects seem to remain in the predicted accuracy because the material models used do not describe characteristics of these materials. The important subject is to upgrade the forming simulation of difficult-processing materials and unknown materials such as by precisely describing plastic anisotropy and instable phenomena of materials into the shape suitable for difficult-processing materials. The subject is also the development of the continuous simulation technology including a series of more than one processes in press processing - welding assembly - strength analysis. (NEDO)

  5. FY 2000 report on the survey on the future development of high grade board forming simulation technology; 2000 nendo kodoban seikei simulation gijutsu no kongo no tenkai ni kansuru chosa hokokusho

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2001-03-01

    For the purpose of achieving energy conservation by reducing weight of vehicles, survey was made of forming/processing technology of new materials such as high-tensile steel and aluminum alloys, and the future development was studied of 'high grade board forming simulation technology.' The subject of the board forming simulation is to develop a method to precisely predict dimensional accuracy (mainly spring back) and sectional shape. When applying the forming simulation technology to difficult-processing materials such as high-tensile steel and aluminum alloys and unknown materials such as super metal, subjects seem to remain in the predicted accuracy because the material models used do not describe characteristics of these materials. The important subject is to upgrade the forming simulation of difficult-processing materials and unknown materials such as by precisely describing plastic anisotropy and instable phenomena of materials into the shape suitable for difficult-processing materials. The subject is also the development of the continuous simulation technology including a series of more than one processes in press processing - welding assembly - strength analysis. (NEDO)

  6. Development of a numerical simulation method for melting/solidification and dissolution/precipitation phenomena. 1. Literature survey for computer program design

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Uchibori, Akihiro; Ohshima, Hiroyuki

    2004-04-01

    Survey research of numerical methods for melting/solidification and dissolution/precipitation phenomena was performed to determine the policy for a simulation program development. Melting/solidification and dissolution/ precipitation have been key issues for feasibility evaluation of several techniques applied in the nuclear fuel cycle processes. Physical models for single-component melting/solidification, two-component solution solidification or precipitation by cooling and precipitation by electrolysis, which are moving boundary problems, were made clear from the literature survey. The transport equations are used for thermal hydraulic analysis in the solid and the liquid regions. Behavior of the solid-liquid interface is described by the heat and mass transfer model. These physical models need to be introduced into the simulation program. The numerical methods for the moving boundary problems are categorized into two types: interface tracking method and interface capturing method. Based on the classification, performance of each numerical method was evaluated. The interface tracking method using the Lagrangian moving mesh requires relatively complicated algorithm. The algorithm has high accuracy for predicting the moving interface. On the other hand, the interface capturing method uses the Eulerian fixing mesh, leading to simple algorithm. Prediction accuracy of the method is relatively low. The extended finite element method classified as the interface capturing method can predict the interface behavior accurately even though the Eulerian fixing mesh is used. We decided to apply the extended finite element method to the simulation program. (author)

  7. Analysis of Adaptive Team Concept through Simulation Models: A Survey (toetsing van adaptieve teamconcepten door middel van simulatiemodellen: een verkenning)

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    van den Broek, J

    2006-01-01

    .... The primary goal of the simulation model is to determine, which organizational structures best fit the demands of different mission environments and how and when these changes are best effectuated...

  8. Simulation of water-energy fluxes through small-scale reservoir systems under limited data availability

    Science.gov (United States)

    Papoulakos, Konstantinos; Pollakis, Giorgos; Moustakis, Yiannis; Markopoulos, Apostolis; Iliopoulou, Theano; Dimitriadis, Panayiotis; Koutsoyiannis, Demetris; Efstratiadis, Andreas

    2017-04-01

    Small islands are regarded as promising areas for developing hybrid water-energy systems that combine multiple sources of renewable energy with pumped-storage facilities. Essential element of such systems is the water storage component (reservoir), which implements both flow and energy regulations. Apparently, the representation of the overall water-energy management problem requires the simulation of the operation of the reservoir system, which in turn requires a faithful estimation of water inflows and demands of water and energy. Yet, in small-scale reservoir systems, this task in far from straightforward, since both the availability and accuracy of associated information is generally very poor. For, in contrast to large-scale reservoir systems, for which it is quite easy to find systematic and reliable hydrological data, in the case of small systems such data may be minor or even totally missing. The stochastic approach is the unique means to account for input data uncertainties within the combined water-energy management problem. Using as example the Livadi reservoir, which is the pumped storage component of the small Aegean island of Astypalaia, Greece, we provide a simulation framework, comprising: (a) a stochastic model for generating synthetic rainfall and temperature time series; (b) a stochastic rainfall-runoff model, whose parameters cannot be inferred through calibration and, thus, they are represented as correlated random variables; (c) a stochastic model for estimating water supply and irrigation demands, based on simulated temperature and soil moisture, and (d) a daily operation model of the reservoir system, providing stochastic forecasts of water and energy outflows. Acknowledgement: This research is conducted within the frame of the undergraduate course "Stochastic Methods in Water Resources" of the National Technical University of Athens (NTUA). The School of Civil Engineering of NTUA provided moral support for the participation of the students

  9. The SLUGGS survey: a comparison of total-mass profiles of early-type galaxies from observations and cosmological simulations, to ˜4 effective radii

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bellstedt, Sabine; Forbes, Duncan A.; Romanowsky, Aaron J.; Remus, Rhea-Silvia; Stevens, Adam R. H.; Brodie, Jean P.; Poci, Adriano; McDermid, Richard; Alabi, Adebusola; Chevalier, Leonie; Adams, Caitlin; Ferré-Mateu, Anna; Wasserman, Asher; Pandya, Viraj

    2018-06-01

    We apply the Jeans Anisotropic Multi-Gaussian Expansion dynamical modelling method to SAGES Legacy Unifying Globulars and GalaxieS (SLUGGS) survey data of early-type galaxies in the stellar mass range 1010 physical processes shaping the mass distributions of galaxies in cosmological simulations are still incomplete. For galaxies with M* > 1010.7 M⊙ in the Magneticum simulations, we identify a significant anticorrelation between total-mass density profile slopes and the fraction of stellar mass formed ex situ (i.e. accreted), whereas this anticorrelation is weaker for lower stellar masses, implying that the measured total-mass density slopes for low-mass galaxies are less likely to be determined by merger activity.

  10. Evaluation of Nine Consensus Indices in Delphi Foresight Research and Their Dependency on Delphi Survey Characteristics: A Simulation Study and Debate on Delphi Design and Interpretation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Birko, Stanislav; Dove, Edward S; Özdemir, Vural

    2015-01-01

    The extent of consensus (or the lack thereof) among experts in emerging fields of innovation can serve as antecedents of scientific, societal, investor and stakeholder synergy or conflict. Naturally, how we measure consensus is of great importance to science and technology strategic foresight. The Delphi methodology is a widely used anonymous survey technique to evaluate consensus among a panel of experts. Surprisingly, there is little guidance on how indices of consensus can be influenced by parameters of the Delphi survey itself. We simulated a classic three-round Delphi survey building on the concept of clustered consensus/dissensus. We evaluated three study characteristics that are pertinent for design of Delphi foresight research: (1) the number of survey questions, (2) the sample size, and (3) the extent to which experts conform to group opinion (the Group Conformity Index) in a Delphi study. Their impacts on the following nine Delphi consensus indices were then examined in 1000 simulations: Clustered Mode, Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Conger's Kappa, De Moivre index, Extremities Version of the Clustered Pairwise Agreement, Fleiss' Kappa, Mode, the Interquartile Range and Pairwise Agreement. The dependency of a consensus index on the Delphi survey characteristics was expressed from 0.000 (no dependency) to 1.000 (full dependency). The number of questions (range: 6 to 40) in a survey did not have a notable impact whereby the dependency values remained below 0.030. The variation in sample size (range: 6 to 50) displayed the top three impacts for the Interquartile Range, the Clustered Mode and the Mode (dependency = 0.396, 0.130, 0.116, respectively). The Group Conformity Index, a construct akin to measuring stubbornness/flexibility of experts' opinions, greatly impacted all nine Delphi consensus indices (dependency = 0.200 to 0.504), except the Extremity CPWA and the Interquartile Range that were impacted only beyond the first decimal point (dependency = 0

  11. Model simulations of flood and debris flow timing in steep catchments after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rengers, Francis K.; McGuire, Luke; Kean, Jason W.; Staley, Dennis M.; Hobley, D.E.J

    2016-01-01

    Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most post-wildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris-flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's $n$) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.

  12. Model simulations of flood and debris flow timing in steep catchments after wildfire

    Science.gov (United States)

    Rengers, F. K.; McGuire, L. A.; Kean, J. W.; Staley, D. M.; Hobley, D. E. J.

    2016-08-01

    Debris flows are a typical hazard on steep slopes after wildfire, but unlike debris flows that mobilize from landslides, most postwildfire debris flows are generated from water runoff. The majority of existing debris flow modeling has focused on landslide-triggered debris flows. In this study we explore the potential for using process-based rainfall-runoff models to simulate the timing of water flow and runoff-generated debris flows in recently burned areas. Two different spatially distributed hydrologic models with differing levels of complexity were used: the full shallow water equations and the kinematic wave approximation. Model parameter values were calibrated in two different watersheds, spanning two orders of magnitude in drainage area. These watersheds were affected by the 2009 Station Fire in the San Gabriel Mountains, CA, USA. Input data for the numerical models were constrained by time series of soil moisture, flow stage, and rainfall collected at field sites, as well as high-resolution lidar-derived digital elevation models. The calibrated parameters were used to model a third watershed in the burn area, and the results show a good match with observed timing of flow peaks. The calibrated roughness parameter (Manning's n) was generally higher when using the kinematic wave approximation relative to the shallow water equations, and decreased with increasing spatial scale. The calibrated effective watershed hydraulic conductivity was low for both models, even for storms occurring several months after the fire, suggesting that wildfire-induced changes to soil-water infiltration were retained throughout that time. Overall, the two model simulations were quite similar suggesting that a kinematic wave model, which is simpler and more computationally efficient, is a suitable approach for predicting flood and debris flow timing in steep, burned watersheds.

  13. Simulation-based training and assessment of non-technical skills in the Norwegian Helicopter Emergency Medical Services: a cross-sectional survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Abrahamsen, Håkon B; Sollid, Stephen J M; Öhlund, Lennart S; Røislien, Jo; Bondevik, Gunnar Tschudi

    2015-08-01

    Human error and deficient non-technical skills (NTSs) among providers of ALS in helicopter emergency medical services (HEMS) is a threat to patient and operational safety. Skills can be improved through simulation-based training and assessment. To document the current level of simulation-based training and assessment of seven generic NTSs in crew members in the Norwegian HEMS. A cross-sectional survey, either electronic or paper-based, of all 207 physicians, HEMS crew members (HCMs) and pilots working in the civilian Norwegian HEMS (11 bases), between 8 May and 25 July 2012. The response rate was 82% (n=193). A large proportion of each of the professional groups lacked simulation-based training and assessment of their NTSs. Compared with pilots and HCMs, physicians undergo statistically significantly less frequent simulation-based training and assessment of their NTSs. Fifty out of 82 (61%) physicians were on call for more than 72 consecutive hours on a regular basis. Of these, 79% did not have any training in coping with fatigue. In contrast, 72 out of 73 (99%) pilots and HCMs were on call for more than 3 days in a row. Of these, 54% did not have any training in coping with fatigue. Our study indicates a lack of simulation-based training and assessment. Pilots and HCMs train and are assessed more frequently than physicians. All professional groups are on call for extended hours, but receive limited training in how to cope with fatigue. Published by the BMJ Publishing Group Limited. For permission to use (where not already granted under a licence) please go to http://group.bmj.com/group/rights-licensing/permissions.

  14. Computational Analysis and Simulation of Empathic Behaviors: a Survey of Empathy Modeling with Behavioral Signal Processing Framework.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Xiao, Bo; Imel, Zac E; Georgiou, Panayiotis; Atkins, David C; Narayanan, Shrikanth S

    2016-05-01

    Empathy is an important psychological process that facilitates human communication and interaction. Enhancement of empathy has profound significance in a range of applications. In this paper, we review emerging directions of research on computational analysis of empathy expression and perception as well as empathic interactions, including their simulation. We summarize the work on empathic expression analysis by the targeted signal modalities (e.g., text, audio, and facial expressions). We categorize empathy simulation studies into theory-based emotion space modeling or application-driven user and context modeling. We summarize challenges in computational study of empathy including conceptual framing and understanding of empathy, data availability, appropriate use and validation of machine learning techniques, and behavior signal processing. Finally, we propose a unified view of empathy computation and offer a series of open problems for future research.

  15. Evaluation of Surface Runoff Generation Processes Using a Rainfall Simulator: A Small Scale Laboratory Experiment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Danáčová, Michaela; Valent, Peter; Výleta, Roman

    2017-12-01

    of 5 mm/min was used to irrigate a corrupted soil sample. The experiment was undertaken for several different slopes, under the condition of no vegetation cover. The results of the rainfall simulation experiment complied with the expectations of a strong relationship between the slope gradient, and the amount of surface runoff generated. The experiments with higher slope gradients were characterised by larger volumes of surface runoff generated, and by shorter times after which it occurred. The experiments with rainfall simulators in both laboratory and field conditions play an important role in better understanding of runoff generation processes. The results of such small scale experiments could be used to estimate some of the parameters of complex hydrological models, which are used to model rainfall-runoff and erosion processes at catchment scale.

  16. Simulated JWST/NIRISS Transit Spectroscopy of Anticipated TESS Planets Compared to Select Discoveries from Space-Based and Ground-Based Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louie, Dana; Deming, Drake; Albert, Loic; Bouma, Luke; Bean, Jacob; Lopez-Morales, Mercedes

    2018-01-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will embark in 2018 on a 2-year wide-field survey mission of most of the celestial sky, discovering over a thousand super-Earth and sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets potentially suitable for follow-up observations using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). Bouma et al. (2017) and Sullivan et al. (2015) used Monte Carlo simulations to predict the properties of the planetary systems that TESS is likely to detect, basing their simulations upon Kepler-derived planet occurrence rates and photometric performance models for the TESS cameras. We employed a JWST Near InfraRed Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (NIRISS) simulation tool to estimate the signal-to-noise (S/N) that JWST/NIRISS will attain in transmission spectroscopy of these anticipated TESS discoveries, and we then compared the S/N for anticipated TESS discoveries to our estimates of S/N for 18 known exoplanets. We analyzed the sensitivity of our results to planetary composition, cloud cover, and presence of an observational noise floor. We find that only a few anticipated TESS discoveries in the terrestrial planet regime will result in better JWST/NIRISS S/N than currently known exoplanets, such as the TRAPPIST-1 planets, GJ1132b, or LHS1140b. However, we emphasize that this outcome is based upon Kepler-derived occurrence rates, and that co-planar compact systems (e.g. TRAPPIST-1) were not included in predicting the anticipated TESS planet yield. Furthermore, our results show that several hundred anticipated TESS discoveries in the super-Earth and sub-Neptune regime will produce S/N higher than currently known exoplanets such as K2-3b or K2-3c. We apply our results to estimate the scope of a JWST follow-up observation program devoted to mapping the transition region between high molecular weight and primordial planetary atmospheres.

  17. Investigation of the SCS-CN initial abstraction ratio using a Monte Carlo simulation for the derived flood frequency curves

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caporali, E.; Chiarello, V.; Galeati, G.

    2014-12-01

    Peak discharges estimates for a given return period are of primary importance in engineering practice for risk assessment and hydraulic structure design. Different statistical methods are chosen here for the assessment of flood frequency curve: one indirect technique based on the extreme rainfall event analysis, the Peak Over Threshold (POT) model and the Annual Maxima approach as direct techniques using river discharge data. In the framework of the indirect method, a Monte Carlo simulation approach is adopted to determine a derived frequency distribution of peak runoff using a probabilistic formulation of the SCS-CN method as stochastic rainfall-runoff model. A Monte Carlo simulation is used to generate a sample of different runoff events from different stochastic combination of rainfall depth, storm duration, and initial loss inputs. The distribution of the rainfall storm events is assumed to follow the GP law whose parameters are estimated through GEV's parameters of annual maximum data. The evaluation of the initial abstraction ratio is investigated since it is one of the most questionable assumption in the SCS-CN model and plays a key role in river basin characterized by high-permeability soils, mainly governed by infiltration excess mechanism. In order to take into account the uncertainty of the model parameters, this modified approach, that is able to revise and re-evaluate the original value of the initial abstraction ratio, is implemented. In the POT model the choice of the threshold has been an essential issue, mainly based on a compromise between bias and variance. The Generalized Extreme Value (GEV) distribution fitted to the annual maxima discharges is therefore compared with the Pareto distributed peaks to check the suitability of the frequency of occurrence representation. The methodology is applied to a large dam in the Serchio river basin, located in the Tuscany Region. The application has shown as Monte Carlo simulation technique can be a useful

  18. A PARAMETERIZED GALAXY CATALOG SIMULATOR FOR TESTING CLUSTER FINDING, MASS ESTIMATION, AND PHOTOMETRIC REDSHIFT ESTIMATION IN OPTICAL AND NEAR-INFRARED SURVEYS

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Song, Jeeseon; Mohr, Joseph J.; Barkhouse, Wayne A.; Rude, Cody; Warren, Michael S.; Dolag, Klaus

    2012-01-01

    We present a galaxy catalog simulator that converts N-body simulations with halo and subhalo catalogs into mock, multiband photometric catalogs. The simulator assigns galaxy properties to each subhalo in a way that reproduces the observed cluster galaxy halo occupation distribution, the radial and mass-dependent variation in fractions of blue galaxies, the luminosity functions in the cluster and the field, and the color-magnitude relation in clusters. Moreover, the evolution of these parameters is tuned to match existing observational constraints. Parameterizing an ensemble of cluster galaxy properties enables us to create mock catalogs with variations in those properties, which in turn allows us to quantify the sensitivity of cluster finding to current observational uncertainties in these properties. Field galaxies are sampled from existing multiband photometric surveys of similar depth. We present an application of the catalog simulator to characterize the selection function and contamination of a galaxy cluster finder that utilizes the cluster red sequence together with galaxy clustering on the sky. We estimate systematic uncertainties in the selection to be at the ≤15% level with current observational constraints on cluster galaxy populations and their evolution. We find the contamination in this cluster finder to be ∼35% to redshift z ∼ 0.6. In addition, we use the mock galaxy catalogs to test the optical mass indicator B gc and a red-sequence redshift estimator. We measure the intrinsic scatter of the B gc -mass relation to be approximately log normal with σ log10M ∼0.25 and we demonstrate photometric redshift accuracies for massive clusters at the ∼3% level out to z ∼ 0.7.

  19. Pitot survey of exhaust flow field of a 2-D scramjet nozzle at Mach 6 with air or freon and argon used for exhaust simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Monta, William J.

    1992-01-01

    A pitot-rake survey of the simulated exhaust of a half-span scramjet nozzle model was conducted in the Langley 20-Inch Mach 6 Tunnel to provide an additional data set for computational fluid dynamics (CFD) code comparisons. A wind-tunnel model was tested with a 26-tube pitot rake that could be manually positioned along the mid-semispan plane of the model. The model configuration had an external expansion surface of 20 degrees and an internal cowl expansion of 12 degrees; tests were also performed with a flow fence. Tests were conducted at a free-stream Reynolds number of approximately 6.5 x 10(exp 6) per foot and a model angle of attack of -0.75 degrees. The two exhaust gas mediums that were tested were air and a Freon 12-argon mixture. Each medium was tested at two jet total pressures at approximately 28 and 14 psia. This document presents the flow-field survey results in graphical as well as tabular form, and several observations concerning the results are discussed. The surveys reveal the major expected flow-field characteristics for each test configuration. For a 50-percent freon 12 and 50-percent argon mixture by volume (Fr-Ar), the exhaust jet pressures were slightly higher than those for air. The addition of a flow fence slightly raised the pitot pressure for the Fr-Ar mixture, but it produced little change for air. For the Fr-Ar exhaust, the plume was larger and the region between the shock wave and plume was smaller.

  20. Tsengwen Reservoir Watershed Hydrological Flood Simulation Under Global Climate Change Using the 20 km Mesh Meteorological Research Institute Atmospheric General Circulation Model (MRI-AGCM

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Nobuaki Kimura

    2014-01-01

    Full Text Available Severe rainstorms have occurred more frequently in Taiwan over the last decade. To understand the flood characteristics of a local region under climate change, a hydrological model simulation was conducted for the Tsengwen Reservoir watershed. The model employed was the Integrated Flood Analysis System (IFAS, which has a conceptual, distributed rainfall-runoff analysis module and a GIS data-input function. The high-resolution rainfall data for flood simulation was categorized into three terms: 1979 - 2003 (Present, 2015 - 2039 (Near-future, and 2075 - 2099 (Future, provided by the Meteorological Research Institute atmospheric general circulation model (MRI-AGCM. Ten extreme rainfall (top ten events were selected for each term in descending order of total precipitation volume. Due to the small watershed area the MRI-AGCM3.2S data was downsized into higher resolution data using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. The simulated discharges revealed that most of the Near-future and Future peaks caused by extreme rainfall increased compared to the Present peak. These ratios were 0.8 - 1.6 (Near-future/Present and 0.9 - 2.2 (Future/Present, respectively. Additionally, we evaluated how these future discharges would affect the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity, specifically the excess water volume required to be stored while maintaining dam releases up to the dam¡¦s spillway capacity or the discharge peak design for flood prevention. The results for the top ten events show that the excess water for the Future term exceeded the reservoir¡¦s flood control capacity and was approximately 79.6 - 87.5% of the total reservoir maximum capacity for the discharge peak design scenario.

  1. Simulation of hydrological balance on experimental catchments Všeminka and Dřevnice in the extreme periods 1992 and 1997

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Kovář, P.; Cudlín, Pavel; Šafář, P.

    2004-01-01

    Roč. 50, č. 11 (2004), s. 478-483 ISSN 0370-663X R&D Projects: GA ČR GA103/99/1470 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z6087904 Keywords : water balance * rainfall- runoff processes * hydrological models Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology Impact factor: 0.379, year: 2004

  2. Water allocation assessment in low flow river under data scarce conditions: a study of hydrological simulation in Mediterranean basin.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bangash, Rubab F; Passuello, Ana; Hammond, Michael; Schuhmacher, Marta

    2012-12-01

    River Francolí is a small river in Catalonia (northeastern Spain) with an average annual low flow (~2 m(3)/s). The purpose of the River Francolí watershed assessments is to support and inform region-wide planning efforts from the perspective of water protection, climate change and water allocation. In this study, a hydrological model of the Francolí River watershed was developed for use as a tool for watershed planning, water resource assessment, and ultimately, water allocation purposes using hydrological data from 2002 to 2006 inclusive. The modeling package selected for this application is DHI's MIKE BASIN. This model is a strategic scale water resource management simulation model, which includes modeling of both land surface and subsurface hydrological processes. Topographic, land use, hydrological, rainfall, and meteorological data were used to develop the model segmentation and input. Due to the unavailability of required catchment runoff data, the NAM rainfall-runoff model was used to calculate runoff of all the sub-watersheds. The results reveal a potential pressure on the availability of groundwater and surface water in the lower part of River Francolí as was expected by the IPCC for Mediterranean river basins. The study also revealed that due to the complex hydrological regime existing in the study area and data scarcity, a comprehensive physically based method was required to better represent the interaction between groundwater and surface water. The combined ArcGIS/MIKE BASIN models appear as a useful tool to assess the hydrological cycle and to better understand water allocation to different sectors in the Francolí River watershed. Copyright © 2012 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.

  3. Itzï (version 17.1): an open-source, distributed GIS model for dynamic flood simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Guillaume Courty, Laurent; Pedrozo-Acuña, Adrián; Bates, Paul David

    2017-05-01

    Worldwide, floods are acknowledged as one of the most destructive hazards. In human-dominated environments, their negative impacts are ascribed not only to the increase in frequency and intensity of floods but also to a strong feedback between the hydrological cycle and anthropogenic development. In order to advance a more comprehensive understanding of this complex interaction, this paper presents the development of a new open-source tool named Itzï that enables the 2-D numerical modelling of rainfall-runoff processes and surface flows integrated with the open-source geographic information system (GIS) software known as GRASS. Therefore, it takes advantage of the ability given by GIS environments to handle datasets with variations in both temporal and spatial resolutions. Furthermore, the presented numerical tool can handle datasets from different sources with varied spatial resolutions, facilitating the preparation and management of input and forcing data. This ability reduces the preprocessing time usually required by other models. Itzï uses a simplified form of the shallow water equations, the damped partial inertia equation, for the resolution of surface flows, and the Green-Ampt model for the infiltration. The source code is now publicly available online, along with complete documentation. The numerical model is verified against three different tests cases: firstly, a comparison with an analytic solution of the shallow water equations is introduced; secondly, a hypothetical flooding event in an urban area is implemented, where results are compared to those from an established model using a similar approach; and lastly, the reproduction of a real inundation event that occurred in the city of Kingston upon Hull, UK, in June 2007, is presented. The numerical approach proved its ability at reproducing the analytic and synthetic test cases. Moreover, simulation results of the real flood event showed its suitability at identifying areas affected by flooding

  4. Effect of vegetation and surface amelioration on simulated landform evolution of the post-mining landscape at ERA Ranger mine, Northern Territory. Supervising Scientist report 134

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Evans, K.G.; Saynor, M.J.; House, T.; The University of Newcastle, Callaghan, NSW; Willgoose, G.

    1998-01-01

    The effect of vegetation and surface ripping on evolution of the ERA Ranger Mine (ERARM) post-mining landform was assessed using the SIBERIA landform evolution model. Data were collected from four sites on the waste rock dump at ERARM-(1) the cap site which was unvegetated and unripped with a surface slope of 0.028 m/m; (2) the batter site, surface slope 0.207 rn/m, also unvegetated and unripped but with a covering of coarse rock material; (3) the soil site, surface slope 0.012 m/m, which had ∼90% vegetation cover of low shrubs and grasses and had been topsoiled and surface ripped; and (4) the fire site, surface slope 0.023 m/m, which was topsoiled and ripped and is presently vegetated with well established trees, grasses and shrubs. Natural rainfall events were monitored on the four sites to collect rainfall, runoff and soil loss data to parameterise the SIBERIA sediment discharge equation. The SIBERIA sediment discharge equation was calibrated using output from a sediment transport model of the form T=β 2 S n1 ∫ Q m1 dt, and the DISTFW rainfall-runoff model. Low frequency high intensity events resulted in the greatest soil loss. Therefore, it is important that sediment loss during high intensity events is predicted accurately. Storms with a range of intensities were selected to derive the sediment transport model. DISTFW hydrology model parameters were derived by fitting four monitored events simultaneously. SIBERIA simulations of post-mining rehabilitated landform evolution showed that for the unvegetated and unripped surface, the landform at 1000 y would be dissected by localised erosion valleys (maximum depth = 7 6 m) with deposited fans (maximum depth 14.8 m) at the outlet of the valleys. Simulated valley form has been recognised in nature which indicates that SIBERIA models natural processes efficiently. For the vegetated and ripped condition reduced valley development (maximum 1000 y depth = 2 4 m) and deposition (maximum 1000 y depth = 4.8 m) occurred

  5. SILVERRUSH. VI. A simulation of Lyα emitters in the reionization epoch and a comparison with Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam survey early data

    Science.gov (United States)

    Inoue, Akio K.; Hasegawa, Kenji; Ishiyama, Tomoaki; Yajima, Hidenobu; Shimizu, Ikkoh; Umemura, Masayuki; Konno, Akira; Harikane, Yuichi; Shibuya, Takatoshi; Ouchi, Masami; Shimasaku, Kazuhiro; Ono, Yoshiaki; Kusakabe, Haruka; Higuchi, Ryo; Lee, Chien-Hsiu

    2018-05-01

    The survey of Lyman α emitters (LAEs) with the Subaru Hyper Suprime-Cam, called SILVERRUSH (Ouchi et al. 2018, PASJ, 70, S13), is producing massive data of LAEs at z ≳ 6. Here we present LAE simulations to compare the SILVERRUSH data. In 1623 comoving Mpc3 boxes, where numerical radiative transfer calculations of reionization were performed, LAEs have been modeled with physically motivated analytic recipes as a function of halo mass. We have examined 23 models depending on the presence or absence of dispersion of halo Lyα emissivity, dispersion of the halo Lyα optical depth, τα, and halo mass dependence of τα. The unique free parameter in our model, a pivot value of τα, is calibrated so as to reproduce the z = 5.7 Lyα luminosity function (LF) of SILVERRUSH. We compare our model predictions with Lyα LFs at z = 6.6 and 7.3, LAE angular auto-correlation functions (ACFs) at z = 5.7 and 6.6, and LAE fractions in Lyman break galaxies at 5 Based on our best model, we present a formula to estimate the intergalactic neutral hydrogen fraction, x_{H I}, from the observed Lyα luminosity density at z ≳ 6. We finally obtain x_{H I}=0.5_{-0.3}^{+0.1} as a volume-average at z = 7.3.

  6. Business process simulation - tool survey

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Jansen-Vullers, M.H.; Netjes, M.; Jensen, K.

    2006-01-01

    In the nineties, more and more attention was raised for process oriented analysis of the performance of companies. Nowadays, many process aware information systems are implemented (e.g., workflow management systems) and business processes are evaluated and redesigned. The discipline related to this

  7. The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France: hydrological analyses, inundation mapping and impact estimations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Payrastre, Olivier; Bourgin, François; Lebouc, Laurent; Le Bihan, Guillaume; Gaume, Eric

    2017-04-01

    The October 2015 flash-floods in south eastern France caused more than twenty fatalities, high damages and large economic losses in high density urban areas of the Mediterranean coast, including the cities of Mandelieu-La Napoule, Cannes and Antibes. Following a post event survey and preliminary analyses conducted within the framework of the Hymex project, we set up an entire simulation chain at the regional scale to better understand this outstanding event. Rainfall-runoff simulations, inundation mapping and a first estimation of the impacts are conducted following the approach developed and successfully applied for two large flash-flood events in two different French regions (Gard in 2002 and Var in 2010) by Le Bihan (2016). A distributed rainfall-runoff model applied at high resolution for the whole area - including numerous small ungauged basins - is used to feed a semi-automatic hydraulic approach (Cartino method) applied along the river network - including small tributaries. Estimation of the impacts is then performed based on the delineation of the flooded areas and geographic databases identifying buildings and population at risk.

  8. Simulated JWST/NIRISS Transit Spectroscopy of Anticipated Tess Planets Compared to Select Discoveries from Space-based and Ground-based Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Louie, Dana R.; Deming, Drake; Albert, Loic; Bouma, L. G.; Bean, Jacob; Lopez-Morales, Mercedes

    2018-04-01

    The Transiting Exoplanet Survey Satellite (TESS) will embark in 2018 on a 2 year wide-field survey mission, discovering over a thousand terrestrial, super-Earth and sub-Neptune-sized exoplanets ({R}pl}≤slant 4 {R}\\oplus ) potentially suitable for follow-up observations using the James Webb Space Telescope (JWST). This work aims to understand the suitability of anticipated TESS planet discoveries for atmospheric characterization by JWST’s Near InfraRed Imager and Slitless Spectrograph (NIRISS) by employing a simulation tool to estimate the signal-to-noise (S/N) achievable in transmission spectroscopy. We applied this tool to Monte Carlo predictions of the TESS expected planet yield and then compared the S/N for anticipated TESS discoveries to our estimates of S/N for 18 known exoplanets. We analyzed the sensitivity of our results to planetary composition, cloud cover, and presence of an observational noise floor. We find that several hundred anticipated TESS discoveries with radii 1.5 {R}\\oplus R}pl}≤slant 2.5 {R}\\oplus will produce S/N higher than currently known exoplanets in this radius regime, such as K2-3b or K2-3c. In the terrestrial planet regime, we find that only a few anticipated TESS discoveries will result in higher S/N than currently known exoplanets, such as the TRAPPIST-1 planets, GJ1132b, and LHS1140b. However, we emphasize that this outcome is based upon Kepler-derived occurrence rates, and that co-planar compact multi-planet systems (e.g., TRAPPIST-1) may be under-represented in the predicted TESS planet yield. Finally, we apply our calculations to estimate the required magnitude of a JWST follow-up program devoted to mapping the transition region between hydrogen-dominated and high molecular weight atmospheres. We find that a modest observing program of between 60 and 100 hr of charged JWST time can define the nature of that transition (e.g., step function versus a power law).

  9. Surveying Future Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carlstrom, John E.

    2016-06-01

    The now standard model of cosmology has been tested and refined by the analysis of increasingly sensitive, large astronomical surveys, especially with statistically significant millimeter-wave surveys of the cosmic microwave background and optical surveys of the distribution of galaxies. This talk will offer a glimpse of the future, which promises an acceleration of this trend with cosmological information coming from new surveys across the electromagnetic spectrum as well as particles and even gravitational waves.

  10. Applications of simulation technique on debris-flow hazard zone delineation: a case study in Hualien County, Taiwan

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    S. M. Hsu

    2010-03-01

    Full Text Available Debris flows pose severe hazards to communities in mountainous areas, often resulting in the loss of life and property. Helping debris-flow-prone communities delineate potential hazard zones provides local authorities with useful information for developing emergency plans and disaster management policies. In 2003, the Soil and Water Conservation Bureau of Taiwan proposed an empirical model to delineate hazard zones for all creeks (1420 in total with potential of debris flows and utilized the model to help establish a hazard prevention system. However, the model does not fully consider hydrologic and physiographical conditions for a given creek in simulation. The objective of this study is to propose new approaches that can improve hazard zone delineation accuracy and simulate hazard zones in response to different rainfall intensity. In this study, a two-dimensional commercial model FLO-2D, physically based and taking into account the momentum and energy conservation of flow, was used to simulate debris-flow inundated areas.

    Sensitivity analysis with the model was conducted to determine the main influence parameters which affect debris flow simulation. Results indicate that the roughness coefficient, yield stress and volumetric sediment concentration dominate the computed results. To improve accuracy of the model, the study examined the performance of the rainfall-runoff model of FLO-2D as compared with that of the HSPF (Hydrological Simulation Program Fortran model, and then the proper values of the significant parameters were evaluated through the calibration process. Results reveal that the HSPF model has a better performance than the FLO-2D model at peak flow and flow recession period, and the volumetric sediment concentration and yield stress can be estimated by the channel slope. The validation of the model for simulating debris-flow hazard zones has been confirmed by a comparison of field evidence from historical debris

  11. Transfer of spatio-temporal multifractal properties of rainfall to simulated surface runoff

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gires, Auguste; Giangola-Murzyn, Agathe; Richard, Julien; Abbes, Jean-Baptiste; Tchiguirinskaia, Ioulia; Schertzer, Daniel; Willinger, Bernard; Cardinal, Hervé; Thouvenot, Thomas

    2014-05-01

    In this paper we suggest to use scaling laws and more specifically Universal Multifractals (UM) to analyse in a spatio-temporal framework both the radar rainfall and the simulated surface runoff. Such tools have been extensively used to analyse and simulate geophysical fields extremely variable over wide range of spatio-temporal scales such as rainfall, but have not often if ever been applied to surface runoff. Such novel combined analysis helps to improve the understanding of the rainfall-runoff relationship. Two catchments of the chair "Hydrology for resilient cities" sponsored by Véolia, and of the European Interreg IV RainGain project are used. They are both located in the Paris area: a 144 ha flat urban area in the Seine-Saint-Denis County, and a 250 ha urban area with a significant portion of forest located on a steep hillside of the Bièvre River. A fully distributed urban hydrological model currently under development called Multi-Hydro is implemented to represent the catchments response. It consists in an interacting core between open source software packages, each of them representing a portion of the water cycle in urban environment. The fully distributed model is tested with pixels of size 5, 10 and 20 m. In a first step the model is validated for three rainfall events that occurred in 2010 and 2011, for which the Météo-France radar mosaic with a resolution of 1 km in space and 5 min in time is available. These events generated significant surface runoff and some local flooding. The sensitivity of the model to the rainfall resolution is briefly checked by stochastically generating an ensemble of realistic downscaled rainfall fields (obtained by continuing the underlying cascade process which is observed on the available range of scales) and inputting them into the model. The impact is significant on both the simulated sewer flow and surface runoff. Then rainfall fields are generated with the help of discrete multifractal cascades and inputted in the

  12. Uncertainties of flood frequency estimation approaches based on continuous simulation using data resampling

    Science.gov (United States)

    Arnaud, Patrick; Cantet, Philippe; Odry, Jean

    2017-11-01

    Flood frequency analyses (FFAs) are needed for flood risk management. Many methods exist ranging from classical purely statistical approaches to more complex approaches based on process simulation. The results of these methods are associated with uncertainties that are sometimes difficult to estimate due to the complexity of the approaches or the number of parameters, especially for process simulation. This is the case of the simulation-based FFA approach called SHYREG presented in this paper, in which a rainfall generator is coupled with a simple rainfall-runoff model in an attempt to estimate the uncertainties due to the estimation of the seven parameters needed to estimate flood frequencies. The six parameters of the rainfall generator are mean values, so their theoretical distribution is known and can be used to estimate the generator uncertainties. In contrast, the theoretical distribution of the single hydrological model parameter is unknown; consequently, a bootstrap method is applied to estimate the calibration uncertainties. The propagation of uncertainty from the rainfall generator to the hydrological model is also taken into account. This method is applied to 1112 basins throughout France. Uncertainties coming from the SHYREG method and from purely statistical approaches are compared, and the results are discussed according to the length of the recorded observations, basin size and basin location. Uncertainties of the SHYREG method decrease as the basin size increases or as the length of the recorded flow increases. Moreover, the results show that the confidence intervals of the SHYREG method are relatively small despite the complexity of the method and the number of parameters (seven). This is due to the stability of the parameters and takes into account the dependence of uncertainties due to the rainfall model and the hydrological calibration. Indeed, the uncertainties on the flow quantiles are on the same order of magnitude as those associated with

  13. A software-based sensor for combined sewer overflows.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Leonhardt, G; Fach, S; Engelhard, C; Kinzel, H; Rauch, W

    2012-01-01

    A new methodology for online estimation of excess flow from combined sewer overflow (CSO) structures based on simulation models is presented. If sufficient flow and water level data from the sewer system is available, no rainfall data are needed to run the model. An inverse rainfall-runoff model was developed to simulate net rainfall based on flow and water level data. Excess flow at all CSO structures in a catchment can then be simulated with a rainfall-runoff model. The method is applied to a case study and results show that the inverse rainfall-runoff model can be used instead of missing rain gauges. Online operation is ensured by software providing an interface to the SCADA-system of the operator and controlling the model. A water quality model could be included to simulate also pollutant concentrations in the excess flow.

  14. The role of basin physical property data in assessing water stress in water resources studies: The application of the Pitman Rainfall-runoff model in Nigeria

    CSIR Research Space (South Africa)

    Ayeni, AO

    2012-11-01

    Full Text Available literature (Adegbola, 1979; Oyenuga, 1967; Sobulo, 1985; Sonneveld, 1996; Iloeje, 2001; Aregheore, 2009). The monthly rainfall records of 28 years (1981 – 2008) for Asa, Owena, and Ogun basin were available for the study. As a result of challenges... is produced. The participation of the second author was made possible through the Young Researcher Establishment Fund (YREF), project number ECHS019, provided by the CSIR. References 1. Adegbola S. A. (1979): An Agricultural Atlas of Nigeria. University...

  15. Holocene rainfall runoff in the central Ethiopian highlands and evolution of the River Nile drainage system as revealed from a sediment record from Lake Dendi

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wagner, Bernd; Wennrich, Volker; Viehberg, Finn; Junginger, Annett; Kolvenbach, Anne; Rethemeyer, Janet; Schaebitz, Frank; Schmiedl, Gerhard

    2018-04-01

    A 12 m long sediment sequence was recovered from the eastern Dendi Crater lake, located on the central Ethiopian Plateau and in the region of the Blue Nile headwaters. 24 AMS radiocarbon dates from bulk organic carbon samples indicate that the sediment sequence spans the last ca. 12 cal kyr BP. Sedimentological and geochemical data from the sediment sequence that were combined with initial diatom information show only moderate change in precipitation and catchment runoff during that period, probably due to the elevated location of the study region in the Ethiopian highlands. Less humid conditions prevailed during the Younger Dryas (YD). After the return to full humid conditions of the African Humid Period (AHP), a 2 m thick tephra layer, probably originating from an eruption of the Wenchi crater 12 km to the west of the lake, was deposited at 10.2 cal kyr BP. Subsequently, single thin horizons of high clastic matter imply that short spells of dry conditions and significantly increased rainfall, respectively, superimpose the generally humid conditions. The end of the AHP is rather gradual and precedes relatively stable and less humid conditions around 3.9 cal kyr BP. Subsequently, slightly increasing catchment runoff led to sediment redeposition, increasing nutrient supply, and highest trophic states in the lake until 1.5 cal kyr BP. A highly variable increase in clastic matter indicates fluctuating and increasing catchment runoff over the last 1500 years. The data from Lake Dendi show, in concert with other records from the Nile catchment and the Eastern Mediterranean Sea (EMS), that the Blue Nile discharge was relatively high between ca. 10.0 and 8.7 cal kyr BP. Subsequent aridification peaked with some regional differences between ca. 4.0 and 2.6 cal kyr BP. Higher discharge in the Blue Nile hydraulic regime after 2.6 cal kyr BP is probably triggered by more local increase in rainfall, which is tentatively caused by a change in the influence of the Indian Ocean monsoon.

  16. Hydrology in a mediterranean mountain environment. The Vallcebre research catchment (north eastern Spain) II. Rainfall-runoff relationships and runoff processes

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Latron, J.; Solar, M.; Nord, G.; Llorens, P.; Gallart, F.

    2009-01-01

    Hydrological response and runoff processes have been studied in the Vallcebre research basins (North Eastern Spain) for almost 20 years. Results obtained allowed to build a more complete perceptual model of the hydrological functioning of Mediterranean mountains basins. On a seasonal and monthly scale, there was no simple relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. Monthly rainfall and runoff values revealed the existence of a threshold in the relationship between rainfall and runoff depths. At the event scale, the storm-flow coefficient had a clear seasonal pattern. The effect of the water table position on how rainfall and runoff volumes relate was observed. Examination of soil water potential and water table dynamics during representative floods helped to identify 3 types of characteristic hydrological behaviour during the year. Under dry conditions, runoff was generated essentially as infiltration excess runoff in low permeable areas, whereas saturation excess runoff dominated during wetting-up and wet conditions. During wetting-up transition, saturated areas resulted from the development of scattered perched water tables, whereas in wet conditions they were linked to the rise of the shallow water table. (Author) 8 refs.

  17. Long term high resolution rainfall runoff observations for improved water balance uncertainty and database QA-QC in the Walnut Gulch Experimental Watershed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bitew, M. M.; Goodrich, D. C.; Demaria, E.; Heilman, P.; Kautz, M. A.

    2017-12-01

    Walnut Gulch is a semi-arid environment experimental watershed and Long Term Agro-ecosystem Research (LTAR) site managed by USDA-ARS Southwest Watershed Research Center for which high-resolution long-term hydro-climatic data are available across its 150 km2 drainage area. In this study, we present the analysis of 50 years of continuous hourly rainfall data to evaluate runoff control and generation processes for improving the QA-QC plans of Walnut Gulch to create high-quality data set that is critical for reducing water balance uncertainties. Multiple linear regression models were developed to relate rainfall properties, runoff characteristics and watershed properties. The rainfall properties were summarized to event based total depth, maximum intensity, duration, the location of the storm center with respect to the outlet, and storm size normalized to watershed area. We evaluated the interaction between the runoff and rainfall and runoff as antecedent moisture condition (AMC), antecedent runoff condition (ARC) and, runoff depth and duration for each rainfall events. We summarized each of the watershed properties such as contributing area, slope, shape, channel length, stream density, channel flow area, and percent of the area of retention stock ponds for each of the nested catchments in Walnut Gulch. The evaluation of the model using basic and categorical statistics showed good predictive skill throughout the watersheds. The model produced correlation coefficients ranging from 0.4-0.94, Nash efficiency coefficients up to 0.77, and Kling-Gupta coefficients ranging from 0.4 to 0.98. The model predicted 92% of all runoff generations and 98% of no-runoff across all sub-watersheds in Walnut Gulch. The regression model also indicated good potential to complement the QA-QC procedures in place for Walnut Gulch dataset publications developed over the years since the 1960s through identification of inconsistencies in rainfall and runoff relations.

  18. Understanding the relationship between DOC and nitrate export and dominant rainfall-runoff processes through long-term high frequency measurements

    Science.gov (United States)

    Schwab, Michael; Klaus, Julian; Pfister, Laurent; Weiler, Markus

    2016-04-01

    Over the past decades, stream sampling protocols for hydro-geochemical parameters were often limited by logistical and technological constraints. While long-term monitoring protocols were typically based on weekly sampling intervals, high frequency sampling was commonly limited to a few single events. In our study, we combined high frequency and long-term measurements to understand the DOC and nitrate behaviour and dynamics for different runoff events and seasons. Our study area is the forested Weierbach catchment (0.47 km2) in Luxembourg. The fractured schist bedrock is covered by cambisol soils. The runoff response of the catchment is characterized by a double peak behaviour. A first discharge peak occurs during or right after a rainfall event (triggered by fast near surface runoff generation processes), while a second delayed peak lasts several days (generated by subsurface flow/ shallow groundwater flow). Peaks in DOC concentrations are closely linked to the first discharge peak, whereas nitrate concentrations follow the second peak. Our observations were carried out with the field deployable instrument spectro::lyser (scan Messtechnik GmbH). This instrument relies on the principles of UV-Vis spectrometry and measures DOC and nitrate concentrations. The measurements were carried out at a high frequency of 15 minutes in situ in the Weierbach creek for more than two years. In addition, a long-term validation was carried out with data obtained from the analysis of water collected with automatic samplers. The long-term, high-frequency measurements allowed us to calculate a complete and detailed balance of DOC and nitrate export over two years. Transport behaviour of the DOC and nitrate showed different dynamics between the first and second hydrograph peaks. DOC is mainly exported during first peaks, while nitrate is mostly exported during the delayed second peaks. In combination with other measurements in the catchment, the long and detailed observations have enabled us to derive relationships between DOC and nitrate export and different catchment states: soil wetness and groundwater levels, precipitation and seasonality. Altogether, the long-term and high-frequency time series provides the opportunity to study DOC and nitrate export without having to just rely only on either a few single event measurements or coarse measurement protocols.

  19. Incorporation of an evolutionary algorithm to estimate transfer-functions for a parameter regionalization scheme of a rainfall-runoff model

    Science.gov (United States)

    Klotz, Daniel; Herrnegger, Mathew; Schulz, Karsten

    2016-04-01

    This contribution presents a framework, which enables the use of an Evolutionary Algorithm (EA) for the calibration and regionalization of the hydrological model COSEROreg. COSEROreg uses an updated version of the HBV-type model COSERO (Kling et al. 2014) for the modelling of hydrological processes and is embedded in a parameter regionalization scheme based on Samaniego et al. (2010). The latter uses subscale-information to estimate model via a-priori chosen transfer functions (often derived from pedotransfer functions). However, the transferability of the regionalization scheme to different model-concepts and the integration of new forms of subscale information is not straightforward. (i) The usefulness of (new) single sub-scale information layers is unknown beforehand. (ii) Additionally, the establishment of functional relationships between these (possibly meaningless) sub-scale information layers and the distributed model parameters remain a central challenge in the implementation of a regionalization procedure. The proposed method theoretically provides a framework to overcome this challenge. The implementation of the EA encompasses the following procedure: First, a formal grammar is specified (Ryan et al., 1998). The construction of the grammar thereby defines the set of possible transfer functions and also allows to incorporate hydrological domain knowledge into the search itself. The EA iterates over the given space by combining parameterized basic functions (e.g. linear- or exponential functions) and sub-scale information layers into transfer functions, which are then used in COSEROreg. However, a pre-selection model is applied beforehand to sort out unfeasible proposals by the EA and to reduce the necessary model runs. A second optimization routine is used to optimize the parameters of the transfer functions proposed by the EA. This concept, namely using two nested optimization loops, is inspired by the idea of Lamarckian Evolution and Baldwin Effect (Whitley et al., 1994), which might be understood as the idea that acquired characteristics during the lifetime of an individual can be transferred between generations. A hierarchical objective function is used for the model evaluation. This enables model preemption (Tolson et al., 2010) and reduces the amount of model evaluations in the early stages of optimization. References: • Samaniego, L., Kumar, R., Attinger, S. (2010): Multiscale parameter regionalization of a grid-based hydrologic model at the mesoscale, Water Resour. Res., doi: 10.1029/2008WR007327 • Kling, H., Stanzel, P., Fuchs, M., and Nachtnebel, H. P. (2014): Performance of the COSERO precipitation-runoff model under non-stationary conditions in basins with different climates, Hydrolog. Sci. J., doi:10.1080/02626667.2014.959956. • C. Ryan, J.J. Collins, Ji, Collins, M. O'Neil (1998): Evolving Programs for an Arbitrary Language, Lecture Notes in Computer Science 1391, Proceedings of the First European Workshop on Genetic Programming. • B.A. Tolson, S. Razavi, L.S. Matott, N.R. Thomson, A. MacLean, F.R. Seglenieks (2010): Reducing the computational cost of automatic calibration through model preemption, Water Resour. Res., 46, W11523, doi:10.1029/2009WR008957. • D. Whitley, S. Gordon, K. Mathias (1994): Lamarckian evolution, the Baldwin effect, and function optimization, in Parallel Problem Solving from Nature (PPSN) III, Y. Davidor, H.-P. Schwefel, and R. Manner, Eds. Berlin: Springer-Verlag, pp. 6-15.

  20. Identifying the Tillage Effects on Phosphorus Export from Phaeozems-Dominated Agricultural Watershed: a Plot-Scale Rainfall-Runoff Study in Northeast China

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhou, Yuyan; Xu, Y. Jun; Xiao, Weihua; Wang, Jianhua; Hao, Cailian; Zhou, Pu; Shi, Min

    2017-12-01

    Evaluating tillage effects on soil phosphorus (P) loss at the plot-scale has significant implication for developing best management practices (BMPs) to protect water quality and soil productivity management in agricultural watersheds. This paper aims to quantify P loss from tilled soils under different rainfall patterns in a Phaeozems-dominated agricultural watershed. Eleven rainfall events were monitored at three experimental sites growing corns with conventional till, conservational till, and no-till during a growing season from July to August in 2013. Mean event mean concentration of dissolved phosphorus was 0.130, 0.213 and 0.614 mg L-1 and mean particulate phosphorus transfer rate was 103.502, 33.359 and 27.127 g ha-1 hr-1, respectively for three tillage practices. Results showed that less tillage practices could significantly reduce sediment runoff and PP loss, accompanied with a moderate reduction of runoff yield. While the proportion of PP has been cut down, the proportion of DP could account for the majority. Hydrological factors, including antecedent soil moisture and rainfall variables, could exert various effects on DP, PP and sediment losses under different tillage conditions. Further, the results of this study imply that the soil P loss management and water quality protection in black soil region of Northeast China should take consideration of diverse effects of tillage on phosphorus loss and the dynamics of P between different forms.

  1. A Bézier-Spline-based Model for the Simulation of Hysteresis in Variably Saturated Soil

    Science.gov (United States)

    Cremer, Clemens; Peche, Aaron; Thiele, Luisa-Bianca; Graf, Thomas; Neuweiler, Insa

    2017-04-01

    Most transient variably saturated flow models neglect hysteresis in the p_c-S-relationship (Beven, 2012). Such models tend to inadequately represent matrix potential and saturation distribution. Thereby, when simulating flow and transport processes, fluid and solute fluxes might be overestimated (Russo et al., 1989). In this study, we present a simple, computationally efficient and easily applicable model that enables to adequately describe hysteresis in the p_c-S-relationship for variably saturated flow. This model can be seen as an extension to the existing play-type model (Beliaev and Hassanizadeh, 2001), where scanning curves are simplified as vertical lines between main imbibition and main drainage curve. In our model, we use continuous linear and Bézier-Spline-based functions. We show the successful validation of the model by numerically reproducing a physical experiment by Gillham, Klute and Heermann (1976) describing primary drainage and imbibition in a vertical soil column. With a deviation of 3%, the simple Bézier-Spline-based model performs significantly better that the play-type approach, which deviates by 30% from the experimental results. Finally, we discuss the realization of physical experiments in order to extend the model to secondary scanning curves and in order to determine scanning curve steepness. {Literature} Beven, K.J. (2012). Rainfall-Runoff-Modelling: The Primer. John Wiley and Sons. Russo, D., Jury, W. A., & Butters, G. L. (1989). Numerical analysis of solute transport during transient irrigation: 1. The effect of hysteresis and profile heterogeneity. Water Resources Research, 25(10), 2109-2118. https://doi.org/10.1029/WR025i010p02109. Beliaev, A.Y. & Hassanizadeh, S.M. (2001). A Theoretical Model of Hysteresis and Dynamic Effects in the Capillary Relation for Two-phase Flow in Porous Media. Transport in Porous Media 43: 487. doi:10.1023/A:1010736108256. Gillham, R., Klute, A., & Heermann, D. (1976). Hydraulic properties of a porous

  2. Future change of water vaiables from HadGEM2-AO simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kim, Moon-Hyun; Kang, Hyun-Suk; Lee, Johan; Baek, Hee-Jeong; Cho, Chunho

    2013-04-01

    Complex global models developed for climate prediction are now applied to the future climate projection in a number of global modeling centers around the world. In climate prediction aspects, an atmosphere-ocean coupled model (one-tier climate system) has been recognized to exhibit useful skill for a global or certain regions (Graham et al., 2005). Wang et al. (2005) demonstrates that an AGCM coupled with an ocean model, simulates realistic SST-rainfall relationships for the Asia during the summer period. Also the transition from two-tier to one-tier approach in climate prediction are mainly caused by recent progresses in development of coupled climate models and enlargement of understanding air-sea interactions obtained from international collaborative efforts such as TOGA (the Tropical Ocean-Global Atmosphere) program (Wang et al., 2009). Meanwhile, water resource including river outflow in association with surface and sub-surface water flow is an important part of the global hydrological cycle, and is affected by climate variability and change through recharge processes (Chen et al., 2002), as well as by human interventions in many locations (Petheram et al., 2001). Also, water is critical resource to the social, economic and environmental aspects, and advances of these core elements requires improved water resource management. Better management and use of water need to abundant real time hydro-meteorological (river and weather) information as well as accurate water resource forecasting (Barrett, 1990). For this reason, many studies have recently carrying out the water resource prediction and estimation using hydrology and climate model. For example, Shiklomanov et al. (2011) predicted that water resource in Russian territory increases about 8-10% during 2010-2020 using the unit hydrograph (UH) model based on hydrologic rainfall-runoff model. Anderson et al. (2000) explained the probabilistic seasonal prediction of drought with a simplified climate model coupled

  3. Simulation of infiltration and redistribution of intense rainfall using Land Surface Models

    Science.gov (United States)

    Mueller, Anna; Verhoef, Anne; Cloke, Hannah

    2016-04-01

    describe and deal with this top boundary condition definition. All three LSMs discretise the spatial derivative in the Richards equation (∂/∂z) using central finite differences, which is a 2nd order method, that according to Godunov's theorem is non-monotone. It is prone to producing non-physical oscillations in the solution. We performed a mesh and timestep dependence study for hypothetical soil columns and showed the presence of the oscillations in Jules and SWAP solutions. We also investigated the rainfall/runoff partition and redistribution in case of intense rainfall using these three models.

  4. The simulation research of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus non-point source pollution in Xiao-Jiang watershed of Three Gorges Reservoir area.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wu, Lei; Long, Tian-Yu; Li, Chong-Ming

    2010-01-01

    Xiao-jiang, with a basin area of almost 5,276 km(2) and a length of 182.4 km, is located in the center of the Three Gorges Reservoir Area, and is the largest tributary of the central section in Three Gorges Reservoir Area, farmland accounts for a large proportion of Xiao-jiang watershed, and the hilly cropland of purple soil is much of the farmland of the watershed. After the second phase of water storage in the Three Gorges Reservoir, the majority of sub-rivers in the reservoir area experienced eutrophication phenomenon frequently, and non-point source (NPS) pollution has become an important source of pollution in Xiao-jiang Watershed. Because dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus non-point source pollution are related to surface runoff and interflow, using climatic, topographic and land cover data from the internet and research institutes, the Semi-Distributed Land-use Runoff Process (SLURP) hydrological model was introduced to simulate the complete hydrological cycle of the Xiao-jiang Watershed. Based on the SLURP distributed hydrological model, non-point source pollution annual output load models of land use and rural residents were respectively established. Therefore, using GIS technology, considering the losses of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus in the course of transport, a dissolved non-point source pollution load dynamic model was established by the organic coupling of the SLURP hydrological model and land-use output model. Through the above dynamic model, the annual dissolved non-point source nitrogen and phosphorus pollution output as well as the load in different types were simulated and quantitatively estimated from 2001 to 2008, furthermore, the loads of Xiao-jiang Watershed were calculated and expressed by temporal and spatial distribution in the Three Gorges Reservoir Area. The simulation results show that: the temporal changes of dissolved nitrogen and phosphorus load in the watershed are close to the inter-annual changes of rainfall runoff, and the

  5. Distributed modelling of hydrologic regime at three subcatchments of Kopaninský tok catchment

    Science.gov (United States)

    Žlábek, Pavel; Tachecí, Pavel; Kaplická, Markéta; Bystřický, Václav

    2010-05-01

    Kopaninský tok catchment is situated in crystalline area of Bohemo-Moravian highland hilly region, with cambisol cover and prevailing agricultural land use. It is a subject of long term (since 1980's) observation. Time series (discharge, precipitation, climatic parameters...) are nowadays available in 10 min. time step, water quality average daily composit samples plus samples during events are available. Soil survey resulting in reference soil hydraulic properties for horizons and vegetation cover survey incl. LAI measurement has been done. All parameters were analysed and used for establishing of distributed mathematical models of P6, P52 and P53 subcatchments, using MIKE SHE 2009 WM deterministic hydrologic modelling system. The aim is to simulate long-term hydrologic regime as well as rainfall-runoff events, serving the base for modelling of nitrate regime and agricultural management influence in the next step. Mentioned subcatchments differs in ratio of artificial drainage area, soil types, land use and slope angle. The models are set-up in a regular computational grid of 2 m size. Basic time step was set to 2 hrs, total simulated period covers 3 years. Runoff response and moisture regime is compared using spatially distributed simulation results. Sensitivity analysis revealed most important parameters influencing model response. Importance of spatial distribution of initial conditions was underlined. Further on, different runoff components in terms of their origin, flow paths and travel time were separated using a combination of two runoff separation techniques (a digital filter and a simple conceptual model GROUND) in 12 subcatchments of Kopaninský tok catchment. These two methods were chosen based on a number of methods testing. Ordinations diagrams performed with Canoco software were used to evaluate influence of different catchment parameters on different runoff components. A canonical ordination method analyses (RDA) was used to explain one data set

  6. A survey of elementary plasma instabilities and ECH wave noise properties relevant to plasma sounding by means of particle in cell simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Dieckmann, M.E.

    1999-01-01

    In this work the emission of high amplitude wave packets into a plasma is examined. The plasma is modelled by an 1 1/2D electromagnetic and relativistic particle in cell code. The antenna is modelled by applying forced electrostatic field oscillations to a subset of the simulation grid cells. The emitted wave packets are followed in space and time. It is investigated how the wave packets are affected by instabilities. The detected instabilities affecting ECH waves have been identified as wave decay, nonlinear damping due to trapping and modulational instabilities. These instabilities have been discussed with hindsight to the plasma sounding experiment. A plasma sounder is an experiment emitting short wave packets into the ambient plasma and then it listens to the response. The assumption that the emitted waves are linear waves then allows to determine the plasma magnetic field strength, the electron density and possibly the electron thermal velocity from the response spectrum. The impact of the non-linear instabilities on the plasma wave response spectrum provided by a sounder have been predicted in this work and the predictions have been shown to match a wide range of experimental observations. A dependence of the instabilities on the simulation noise levels, for example the dependence of the wave interaction time in a wave decay on the noise electric field amplitudes, required it to investigate the simulation noise properties (spectral distribution) and to compare it to real plasma thermal noise. It has also been examined how a finite length antenna would filter the simulation noise. (author)

  7. Design of a multi-agent hydroeconomic model to simulate a complex human-water system: Early insights from the Jordan Water Project

    Science.gov (United States)

    Yoon, J.; Klassert, C. J. A.; Lachaut, T.; Selby, P. D.; Knox, S.; Gorelick, S.; Rajsekhar, D.; Tilmant, A.; Avisse, N.; Harou, J. J.; Gawel, E.; Klauer, B.; Mustafa, D.; Talozi, S.; Sigel, K.

    2015-12-01

    Our work focuses on development of a multi-agent, hydroeconomic model for purposes of water policy evaluation in Jordan. The model adopts a modular approach, integrating biophysical modules that simulate natural and engineered phenomena with human modules that represent behavior at multiple levels of decision making. The hydrologic modules are developed using spatially-distributed groundwater and surface water models, which are translated into compact simulators for efficient integration into the multi-agent model. For the groundwater model, we adopt a response matrix method approach in which a 3-dimensional MODFLOW model of a complex regional groundwater system is converted into a linear simulator of groundwater response by pre-processing drawdown results from several hundred numerical simulation runs. Surface water models for each major surface water basin in the country are developed in SWAT and similarly translated into simple rainfall-runoff functions for integration with the multi-agent model. The approach balances physically-based, spatially-explicit representation of hydrologic systems with the efficiency required for integration into a complex multi-agent model that is computationally amenable to robust scenario analysis. For the multi-agent model, we explicitly represent human agency at multiple levels of decision making, with agents representing riparian, management, supplier, and water user groups. The agents' decision making models incorporate both rule-based heuristics as well as economic optimization. The model is programmed in Python using Pynsim, a generalizable, open-source object-oriented code framework for modeling network-based water resource systems. The Jordan model is one of the first applications of Pynsim to a real-world water management case study. Preliminary results from a tanker market scenario run through year 2050 are presented in which several salient features of the water system are investigated: competition between urban and

  8. Response to FESAC survey, non-fusion connections to Fusion Energy Sciences. Applications of the FES-supported beam and plasma simulation code, Warp

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Friedman, A. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Grote, D. P. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States); Vay, J. L. [Lawrence Livermore National Lab. (LLNL), Livermore, CA (United States)

    2015-05-29

    The Fusion Energy Sciences Advisory Committee’s subcommittee on non-fusion applications (FESAC NFA) is conducting a survey to obtain information from the fusion community about non-fusion work that has resulted from their DOE-funded fusion research. The subcommittee has requested that members of the community describe recent developments connected to the activities of the DOE Office of Fusion Energy Sciences. Two questions in particular were posed by the subcommittee. This document contains the authors’ responses to those questions.

  9. Real Rainfall Time Series for Storm Sewer Design

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Larsen, Torben

    1981-01-01

    to a storm sewer system. The output of the simulation is the frequency distribution of the peak flow, overflow volume etc. from the overflow or the retention storage. The parameters in the transfer model are found either from rainfall/runoff measurements in the catchment or from one or more simulations...

  10. Hydrological modeling in semi-arid region using HEC-HMS model ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The purpose of this study is to simulate rainfall-runoff in the semi-arid region of ... the frequency storm is used for the meteorological model, the SCS curve number is ... SCS unit hydrograph method have been applied to simulate the runoff rate.

  11. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume II – Hydraulics

    Science.gov (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and gene...

  12. Storm Water Management Model Reference Manual Volume III – Water Quality

    Science.gov (United States)

    SWMM is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. The runoff component of SWMM operates on a collection of subcatchment areas that receive precipitation and gene...

  13. STORM WATER MANAGEMENT MODEL USER'S MANUAL VERSION 5.0

    Science.gov (United States)

    The EPA Storm Water Management Model (SWMM) is a dynamic rainfall-runoff simulation model used for single event or long-term (continuous) simulation of runoff quantity and quality from primarily urban areas. SWMM was first developed in 1971 and has undergone several major upgrade...

  14. Study on tsunami due to offshore earthquakes for Korea coast. Literature survey and numerical simulation on earthquake and tsunami in the Japan Sea and the East China Sea

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Matsuyama, Masafumi; Aoyagi, Yasuhira; Inoue, Daiei; Choi, Weon-Hack; Kang, Keum-Seok

    2008-01-01

    In Korea, there has been a concern on tsumami risks for the Nuclear Power Plants since the 1983 Nihonkai-Chubu earthquake tsunami. The maximum run-up height reached 4 m to north of the Ulchin nuclear power plant site. The east coast of Korea was also attacked by a few meters high tsunami generated by the 1993 Hokkaido Nansei-Oki earthquake. Both source areas of them were in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea, which remains another tsunami potential. Therefore it is necessary to study tsunami risks for coast of Korea by means of geological investigation and numerical simulation. Historical records of earthquake and tsunami in the Japan Sea were re-compiled to evaluate tsunami potential. A database of marine active faults in the Japan Sea was compiled to decide a regional potential of tsunami. Many developed reverse faults are found in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea. The authors have found no historical earthquake in the East China Sea which caused tunami observed at coast of Korea. Therefore five fault models were determined on the basis of the analysis results of historical records and recent research results of fault parameter and tunami. Tsunami heights were estimated by numerical simulation of nonlinear dispersion wave theory. The results of the simulations indicate that the tsunami heights in these cases are less than 0.25 m along the coast of Korea, and the tsunami risk by these assumed faults does not lead to severe impact. It is concluded that tsunami occurred in the areas western off Hokkaido to the eastern margin of the Japan Sea leads the most significant impact to Korea consequently. (author)

  15. Fire simulation in large compartments with a fire model 'CFAST'. Part 1. Survey of applicability for analyzing air-temperature profile in compartments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hattori, Yasuo; Suto, Hitoshi; Shirai, Koji; Eguchi, Yuzuru; Sano, Tadashi

    2012-01-01

    The basic performance of numerical analysis of air-temperature profiles in large-scale compartments by using a zone model, CFAST (Consolidated model of Fire growth And Smoke Transport), which has been widely applied for fire protection design of buildings is examined. Special attentions are paid to the dependence of the setting boundary conditions and the choosing model parameters. The simulations carried out under the denkyoken-test conditions, in which the air-temperature profiles in compartments and the heat-release rate of a fire have been precisely measured, indicate that the CFAST has a capability to appropriately represent the time-histories of air-temperature in the high air-temperature layer generated in the vicinity of ceiling of the compartment which includes the source of a fire, by applying the proper boundary conditions, i.e., time-histories of air-temperature in the upper (high temperature) layer given by the CFAST agree well with those of observations. The sensitivity analysis in the simulations also reveals that the appropriately setting of the boundary-conditions, especially for the heat-release ratio from a fire and the heat-transfer rate from walls of compartments to ambient air is vital. Contrary to this, the impacts of choosing numerical parameters on the air-temperature analysis are quite small. (author)

  16. Stochastic approximation methods-Powerful tools for simulation and optimization: A survey of some recent work on multi-agent systems and cyber-physical systems

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Yin, George; Wang, Le Yi; Zhang, Hongwei

    2014-01-01

    Stochastic approximation methods have found extensive and diversified applications. Recent emergence of networked systems and cyber-physical systems has generated renewed interest in advancing stochastic approximation into a general framework to support algorithm development for information processing and decisions in such systems. This paper presents a survey on some recent developments in stochastic approximation methods and their applications. Using connected vehicles in platoon formation and coordination as a platform, we highlight some traditional and new methodologies of stochastic approximation algorithms and explain how they can be used to capture essential features in networked systems. Distinct features of networked systems with randomly switching topologies, dynamically evolving parameters, and unknown delays are presented, and control strategies are provided

  17. A Graphical-User Interface for the U. S. Geological Survey's SUTRA Code using Argus ONE (for simulation of variable-density saturated-unsaturated ground-water flow with solute or energy transport)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Voss, Clifford I.; Boldt, David; Shapiro, Allen M.

    1997-01-01

    This report describes a Graphical-User Interface (GUI) for SUTRA, the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) model for saturated-unsaturated variable-fluid-density ground-water flow with solute or energy transport,which combines a USGS-developed code that interfaces SUTRA with Argus ONE, a commercial software product developed by Argus Interware. This product, known as Argus Open Numerical Environments (Argus ONETM), is a programmable system with geographic-information-system-like (GIS-like) functionality that includes automated gridding and meshing capabilities for linking geospatial information with finite-difference and finite-element numerical model discretizations. The GUI for SUTRA is based on a public-domain Plug-In Extension (PIE) to Argus ONE that automates the use of ArgusONE to: automatically create the appropriate geospatial information coverages (information layers) for SUTRA, provide menus and dialogs for inputting geospatial information and simulation control parameters for SUTRA, and allow visualization of SUTRA simulation results. Following simulation control data and geospatial data input bythe user through the GUI, ArgusONE creates text files in a format required for normal input to SUTRA,and SUTRA can be executed within the Argus ONE environment. Then, hydraulic head, pressure, solute concentration, temperature, saturation and velocity results from the SUTRA simulation may be visualized. Although the GUI for SUTRA discussed in this report provides all of the graphical pre- and post-processor functions required for running SUTRA, it is also possible for advanced users to apply programmable features within Argus ONE to modify the GUI to meet the unique demands of particular ground-water modeling projects.

  18. Using Monte Carlo Simulation to Improve the Performance of Semivariograms for Choosing the Remote Sensing Imagery Resolution for Natural Resource Surveys: Case Study on Three Counties in East, Central, and West China

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Juanle Wang

    2018-01-01

    Full Text Available Semivariograms have been widely used in research to obtain optimal resolutions for ground features. To obtain the semivariogram curve and its attributes (range and sill, parameters including sample size (SS, maximum distance (MD, and group number (GN have to be defined, as well as a mathematic model for fitting the curve. However, a clear guide on parameter setting and model selection is currently not available. In this study, a Monte Carlo simulation-based approach (MCS is proposed to enhance the performance of semivariograms by optimizing the parameters, and case studies in three regions are conducted to determine the optimal resolution for natural resource surveys. Those parameters are optimized one by one through several rounds of MCS. The result shows that exponential model is better than sphere model; sample size has a positive relationship with R2, while the group number has a negative one; increasing the simulation number could improve the accuracy of estimation; and eventually the optimized parameters improved the performance of semivariogram. In case study, the average sizes for three general ground features (grassland, farmland, and forest of three counties (Ansai, Changdu, and Taihe in different geophysical locations of China were acquired and compared, and imagery with an appropriate resolution is recommended. The results show that the ground feature sizes acquired by means of MCS and optimized parameters in this study match well with real land cover patterns.

  19. Report on technological survey in fiscal 1999. Demonstration test for smoothing grid interconnection (Demonstration test using simulation); 1999 nendo keito renkei enkatsuka jissho shiken chosa hokokusho. Simulation ni yoru jissho shiken

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    NONE

    2000-03-01

    Examinations have been made by using simulation on a device having single operation detecting function, that is the single operation detector. The discussions are given on (1) an induction generator and a reactive power compensation type detector system interconnected to a high-voltage grid, and (2) a three-phase inverter, a reactive power variation type detector, and a QC mode frequency shifting detector system. In Item (1), it was learned that, because of variation induction force being small in the case of operation having become single operation, the variation signal must be made greater, and in Item (2), the discussions have not gone as far as a conclusion can be drawn. In addition, assuming a synchronous motor interconnected to a high voltage grid, discussions were given on the effects of disturbance to the interconnected system on the functions of the single operation detector, whereas it was verified that there are no problems in practical use. Furthermore, discussions were given on the self excitation phenomenon in an induction generator, and requirements for omitting the ground fault overvoltage relay in a discrete type power supply. (NEDO)

  20. "Suntelligence" Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    ... to the American Academy of Dermatology's "Suntelligence" sun-smart survey. Please answer the following questions to measure ... be able to view a ranking of major cities suntelligence based on residents' responses to this survey. ...

  1. Estimating runoff from ungauged catchments for reservoir water ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    The Lower Middle Zambezi Basin is sandwiched between three hydropower ... This study applied a rainfall-runoff model (HEC-HMS) and GIS techniques to ... Missing data were generated using the mean value infilling method. ... A hydrological model, HEC- HMS, was used to simulate runoff from the ungauged catchments.

  2. Runoff and soil erosion from two rangeland sites

    Science.gov (United States)

    Historically over 50 years of rainfall/runoff research using rainfall simulators has been conducted at various rangeland sites in the West, however these sites rarely have consecutive yearly measurements. This limits the understanding of dynamic annual conditions and the interactions of grazing, pla...

  3. Soil-Erosion Models: Where do we Really Stand? Short Communication (Discussion) on the papers by Wainwright et al. (2008a, b, c)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Wainwright, et al. (Earth Surface Processes and Landforms; 2008a, b, c) propose a new model (MAHLERAN) for simulating catchment-scale erosion resulting from rainfall-runoff events. In justification for this new model, several existing process-based models are criticized in regard to their theoretic...

  4. A new time-space accounting scheme to predict stream water residence time and hydrograph source components at the watershed scale

    Science.gov (United States)

    Takahiro Sayama; Jeffrey J. McDonnell

    2009-01-01

    Hydrograph source components and stream water residence time are fundamental behavioral descriptors of watersheds but, as yet, are poorly represented in most rainfall-runoff models. We present a new time-space accounting scheme (T-SAS) to simulate the pre-event and event water fractions, mean residence time, and spatial source of streamflow at the watershed scale. We...

  5. Integration of hydro-climatic data and land use in neural networks for ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    In a context of climate disruption due to uncontrolled human activities, the classical models of rainfall - runoff modeling are almost unusable. In addition on the Lobo River (Southwest of Côte d'Ivoire), no simulation study has been carried out yet despite that, this river has flooded fields and villages causing huge losses in ...

  6. Journal of EEA, Vol. 31, 2014 1 ASSESSMENT OF THE USE OF ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    useful to simulate rainfall runoff process for better .... file format for defining lumped land areas called .... Rchrg_dp. Deep aquifer percolation fraction. 0. 1. 1.78. Very high. 3. GWQMN. Threshold water depth in the shallow aquifer for return flow.

  7. Role of vegetation in the variability of water regimes in the Šumava Mts forest

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Buchtele, Josef; Buchtelová, Marie; Tesař, Miroslav

    2006-01-01

    Roč. 61, Suppl. 19 (2006), S246-S250 ISSN 1335-6372 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/06/0375 Institutional research plan: CEZ:AV0Z20600510 Keywords : runoff changes * deforestation * flood flows * rainfall-runoff simulation Subject RIV: BK - Fluid Dynamics

  8. Overland erosion of uranium-mill-tailings impoundments: physical processes and computational methods

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Walters, M.H.

    1983-03-01

    The surface runoff and erosional processes of watersheds caused by rainfall-runoff are reviewed. Soil properties, topography, and rainstorm distribution are discussed with respect to their effects on soil erosion. The effects of climate and vegetation are briefly presented. Regression models and physical process simulation models are reviewed

  9. Vliv vegetační pokrývky na režim odtoku povrchové a podzemní vody

    Czech Academy of Sciences Publication Activity Database

    Buchtele, Josef; Tesař, Miroslav

    2013-01-01

    Roč. 63, č. 8 (2013), s. 256-261 ISSN 1211-0760 R&D Projects: GA ČR GA205/09/1918; GA MŽP SP/1A6/151/07 Institutional support: RVO:67985874 Keywords : vegetation change * land use * rainfall-runoff simulation * evapotranspiration demand * components of evapotranspiration Subject RIV: DA - Hydrology ; Limnology

  10. Simulations of cm-wavelength Sunyaev-Zel'dovich galaxy cluster and point source blind sky surveys and predictions for the RT32/OCRA-f and the Hevelius 100-m radio telescope

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Lew, Bartosz; Kus, Andrzej [Toruń Centre for Astronomy, Nicolaus Copernicus University, ul. Gagarina 11, 87-100 Toruń (Poland); Birkinshaw, Mark [HH Wills Physics Laboratory, University of Bristol, Tyndall Avenue, Bristol BS8 1TL (United Kingdom); Wilkinson, Peter, E-mail: blew@astro.uni.torun.pl, E-mail: Mark.Birkinshaw@bristol.ac.uk, E-mail: peter.wilkinson@manchester.ac.uk, E-mail: ajk@astro.uni.torun.pl [Jodrell Bank Centre for Astrophysics, The University of Manchester, Alan Turing Building, Manchester M13 9PL (United Kingdom)

    2015-02-01

    We investigate the effectiveness of blind surveys for radio sources and galaxy cluster thermal Sunyaev-Zel'dovich effects (TSZEs) using the four-pair, beam-switched OCRA-f radiometer on the 32-m radio telescope in Poland. The predictions are based on mock maps that include the cosmic microwave background, TSZEs from hydrodynamical simulations of large scale structure formation, and unresolved radio sources. We validate the mock maps against observational data, and examine the limitations imposed by simplified physics. We estimate the effects of source clustering towards galaxy clusters from NVSS source counts around Planck-selected cluster candidates, and include appropriate correlations in our mock maps. The study allows us to quantify the effects of halo line-of-sight alignments, source confusion, and telescope angular resolution on the detections of TSZEs. We perform a similar analysis for the planned 100-m Hevelius radio telescope (RTH) equipped with a 49-beam radio camera and operating at frequencies up to 22 GHz.We find that RT32/OCRA-f will be suitable for small-field blind radio source surveys, and will detect 33{sup +17}{sub −11} new radio sources brighter than 0.87 mJy at 30 GHz in a 1 deg{sup 2} field at > 5σ CL during a one-year, non-continuous, observing campaign, taking account of Polish weather conditions. It is unlikely that any galaxy cluster will be detected at 3σ CL in such a survey. A 60-deg{sup 2} survey, with field coverage of 2{sup 2} beams per pixel, at 15 GHz with the RTH, would find <1.5 galaxy clusters per year brighter than 60 μJy (at 3σ CL), and would detect about 3.4 × 10{sup 4} point sources brighter than 1 mJy at 5σ CL, with confusion causing flux density errors ∼< 2% (20%) in 68% (95%) of the detected sources.A primary goal of the planned RTH will be a wide-area (π sr) radio source survey at 15 GHz. This survey will detect nearly 3 × 10{sup 5} radio sources at 5σ CL down to 1.3 mJy, and tens of galaxy

  11. SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff - a Vietnam river basin study

    Science.gov (United States)

    Vu, M. T.; Raghavan, S. V.; Liong, S. Y.

    2012-08-01

    next best dataset that was applied to the runoff modelling, with NSE and R2 of 0.46 and 0.51, respectively. The PERSIANN and TRMM rainfall data driven runoff did not show good agreement compared to the station data as both the NSE and R2 indices showed a low value of 0.3. GHCN2 and NCEP also did not show good correlations. The varied results by using these datasets indicate that although the gauge based and satellite-gauge merged products use some ground truth data, the different interpolation techniques and merging algorithms could also be a source of uncertainties. This entails a good understanding of the response of the hydrological model to different datasets and a quantification of the uncertainties in these datasets. Such a methodology is also useful for planning on Rainfall-runoff and even reservoir/river management both at rural and urban scales.

  12. SWAT use of gridded observations for simulating runoff – a Vietnam river basin study

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    M. T. Vu

    2012-08-01

    .68 and 0.71. The GPCP proved to be the next best dataset that was applied to the runoff modelling, with NSE and R2 of 0.46 and 0.51, respectively. The PERSIANN and TRMM rainfall data driven runoff did not show good agreement compared to the station data as both the NSE and R2 indices showed a low value of 0.3. GHCN2 and NCEP also did not show good correlations. The varied results by using these datasets indicate that although the gauge based and satellite-gauge merged products use some ground truth data, the different interpolation techniques and merging algorithms could also be a source of uncertainties. This entails a good understanding of the response of the hydrological model to different datasets and a quantification of the uncertainties in these datasets. Such a methodology is also useful for planning on Rainfall-runoff and even reservoir/river management both at rural and urban scales.

  13. Survey research.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Alderman, Amy K; Salem, Barbara

    2010-10-01

    Survey research is a unique methodology that can provide insight into individuals' perspectives and experiences and can be collected on a large population-based sample. Specifically, in plastic surgery, survey research can provide patients and providers with accurate and reproducible information to assist with medical decision-making. When using survey methods in research, researchers should develop a conceptual model that explains the relationships of the independent and dependent variables. The items of the survey are of primary importance. Collected data are only useful if they accurately measure the concepts of interest. In addition, administration of the survey must follow basic principles to ensure an adequate response rate and representation of the intended target sample. In this article, the authors review some general concepts important for successful survey research and discuss the many advantages this methodology has for obtaining limitless amounts of valuable information.

  14. Groundwater quality and simulation of sources of water to wells in the Marsh Creek valley at the U.S. Geological Survey Northern Appalachian Research Laboratory, Tioga County, Pennsylvania

    Science.gov (United States)

    Risser, Dennis W.; Breen, Kevin J.

    2012-01-01

    This report provides a November 2010 snapshot of groundwater quality and an analysis of the sources of water to wells at the U.S. Geological Survey (USGS) Northern Appalachian Research Laboratory (NARL) near Wellsboro, Pennsylvania. The laboratory, which conducts fisheries research, currently (2011) withdraws 1,000 gallons per minute of high-quality groundwater from three wells completed in the glacial sand and gravel aquifer beneath the Marsh Creek valley; a fourth well that taps the same aquifer provides the potable supply for the facility. The study was conducted to document the source areas and quality of the water supply for this Department of Interior facility, which is surrounded by the ongoing development of natural gas from the Marcellus Shale. Groundwater samples were collected from the four wells used by the NARL and from two nearby domestic-supply wells. The domestic-supply wells withdraw groundwater from bedrock of the Catskill Formation. Samples were analyzed for major ions, nutrients, trace metals, radiochemicals, dissolved gases, and stable isotopes of oxygen and hydrogen in water and carbon in dissolved carbonate to document groundwater quality. Organic constituents (other than hydrocarbon gases) associated with hydraulic fracturing and other human activities were not analyzed as part of this assessment. Results show low concentrations of all constituents. Only radon, which ranged from 980 to 1,310 picocuries per liter, was somewhat elevated. These findings are consistent with the pristine nature of the aquifer in the Marsh Creek valley, which is the reason the laboratory was sited at this location. The sources of water and areas contributing recharge to wells were identified by the use of a previously documented MODFLOW groundwater-flow model for the following conditions: (1) withdrawals of 1,000 to 3,000 gallons per minute from the NARL wells, (2) average or dry hydrologic conditions, and (3) withdrawals of 1,000 gallons per minute from a new

  15. Surveys & Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Employment and Payroll Survey of Business Owners Work from Home Our statistics highlight trends in household statistics from multiple surveys. Data Tools & Apps Main American FactFinder Census Business Builder My residential construction. Business Dynamics Statistics (BDS) Provides measures of openings and closings, job

  16. Engineering surveying

    CERN Document Server

    Schofield, W

    2001-01-01

    The aim of Engineering Surveying has always been to impart and develop a clear understanding of the basic topics of the subject. The author has fully revised the book to make it the most up-to-date and relevant textbook available on the subject.The book also contains the latest information on trigonometric levelling, total stations and one-person measuring systems. A new chapter on satellites ensures a firm grasp of this vitally important topic.The text covers engineering surveying modules for civil engineering students on degree courses and forms a reference for the engineering surveying module in land surveying courses. It will also prove to be a valuable reference for practitioners.* Simple clear introduction to surveying for engineers* Explains key techniques and methods* Details reading systems and satellite position fixing

  17. Survey Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — Cleaned and QCd data for the Fishing Effort Survey. Questions on fishing and other out are asked on weather and outdoor activity, including fishing trips. Used for...

  18. Surveying Humaness

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Markussen, Randi; Gad, Christopher

    carried out in a Danish county in order to improve treatment of people who have suffered from long-term illnesses. The surveys concern not only feed back on how people experience their present and past interaction with the social services and health care system; they also ask people to indicate the state......Christopher Gad. Ph.d. Dept. of Information and Media Studies Randi Markussen. Associate Professor, Dept. of Information and Media Studies. rmark@imv.au.dk   Abstract:   Surveying humanness -politics of care improvement   For various reasons we both were subjected to a specific survey procedure...... and development of a large collection of biological and psychological symptoms and psycho-social problems. However, the surveys say nothing about how the information will be of use to the people who answer the procedure or how this scientific intervention will be put to use more specifically within the public...

  19. Uncertainty in prediction and simulation of flow in sewer systems

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Breinholt, Anders

    the uncertainty in the state variables. Additionally the observation noise is accounted for by a separate observation noise term. This approach is also referred to as stochastic grey-box modelling. A state dependent diffusion term was developed using a Lamperti transformation of the states, and implemented...... performance beyond the one-step. The reliability was satisfied for the one-step prediction but were increasingly biased as the prediction horizon was expanded, particularly in rainy periods. GLUE was applied for estimating uncertainty in such a way that the selection of behavioral parameter sets continued....... Conversely the parameter estimates of the stochastic approach are physically meaningful. This thesis has contributed to developing simplified rainfall-runoff models that are suitable for model predictive control of urban drainage systems that takes uncertainty into account....

  20. Redshift Survey Strategies

    Science.gov (United States)

    Jones, A. W.; Bland-Hawthorn, J.; Kaiser, N.

    1994-12-01

    In the first half of 1995, the Anglo-Australian Observatory is due to commission a wide field (2.1(deg) ), 400-fiber, double spectrograph system (2dF) at the f/3.3 prime focus of the AAT 3.9m bi-national facility. The instrument should be able to measure ~ 4000 galaxy redshifts (assuming a magnitude limit of b_J ~\\ 20) in a single dark night and is therefore ideally suited to studies of large-scale structure. We have carried out simple 3D numerical simulations to judge the relative merits of sparse surveys and contiguous surveys. We generate a survey volume and fill it randomly with particles according to a selection function which mimics a magnitude-limited survey at b_J = 19.7. Each of the particles is perturbed by a gaussian random field according to the dimensionless power spectrum k(3) P(k) / 2pi (2) determined by Feldman, Kaiser & Peacock (1994) from the IRAS QDOT survey. We introduce some redshift-space distortion as described by Kaiser (1987), a `thermal' component measured from pairwise velocities (Davis & Peebles 1983), and `fingers of god' due to rich clusters at random density enhancements. Our particular concern is to understand how the window function W(2(k)) of the survey geometry compromises the accuracy of statistical measures [e.g., P(k), xi (r), xi (r_sigma ,r_pi )] commonly used in the study of large-scale structure. We also examine the reliability of various tools (e.g. genus) for describing the topological structure within a contiguous region of the survey.

  1. Graphical Interfaces for Simulation.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hollan, J. D.; And Others

    This document presents a discussion of the development of a set of software tools to assist in the construction of interfaces to simulations and real-time systems. Presuppositions to the approach to interface design that was used are surveyed, the tools are described, and the conclusions drawn from these experiences in graphical interface design…

  2. Handbook of simulation optimization

    CERN Document Server

    Fu, Michael C

    2014-01-01

    The Handbook of Simulation Optimization presents an overview of the state of the art of simulation optimization, providing a survey of the most well-established approaches for optimizing stochastic simulation models and a sampling of recent research advances in theory and methodology. Leading contributors cover such topics as discrete optimization via simulation, ranking and selection, efficient simulation budget allocation, random search methods, response surface methodology, stochastic gradient estimation, stochastic approximation, sample average approximation, stochastic constraints, variance reduction techniques, model-based stochastic search methods and Markov decision processes. This single volume should serve as a reference for those already in the field and as a means for those new to the field for understanding and applying the main approaches. The intended audience includes researchers, practitioners and graduate students in the business/engineering fields of operations research, management science,...

  3. Engineering surveying

    CERN Document Server

    Schofield, W

    2007-01-01

    Engineering surveying involves determining the position of natural and man-made features on or beneath the Earth's surface and utilizing these features in the planning, design and construction of works. It is a critical part of any engineering project. Without an accurate understanding of the size, shape and nature of the site the project risks expensive and time-consuming errors or even catastrophic failure.Engineering Surveying 6th edition covers all the basic principles and practice of this complex subject and the authors bring expertise and clarity. Previous editions of this classic text have given readers a clear understanding of fundamentals such as vertical control, distance, angles and position right through to the most modern technologies, and this fully updated edition continues that tradition.This sixth edition includes:* An introduction to geodesy to facilitate greater understanding of satellite systems* A fully updated chapter on GPS, GLONASS and GALILEO for satellite positioning in surveying* Al...

  4. Surveying Education

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Enemark, Stig

    2009-01-01

    In relation to surveying education there is one big question to be asked: Is the role of the surveyors changing? In a global perspective the answer will be "Yes". There is a big swing that could be entitled "From Measurement to Management". This does not imply that measurement is no longer....... In surveying education there are a range of other challenges to be faced. These relate to the focus on learning to learn; the need for flexible curriculum to deal with constant change; the move towards introducing virtual academy; the demand for creating a quality culture; and the perspective of lifelong...... on an efficient interaction between education, research, and professional practice....

  5. Network Simulation

    CERN Document Server

    Fujimoto, Richard

    2006-01-01

    "Network Simulation" presents a detailed introduction to the design, implementation, and use of network simulation tools. Discussion topics include the requirements and issues faced for simulator design and use in wired networks, wireless networks, distributed simulation environments, and fluid model abstractions. Several existing simulations are given as examples, with details regarding design decisions and why those decisions were made. Issues regarding performance and scalability are discussed in detail, describing how one can utilize distributed simulation methods to increase the

  6. Environmental surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Costa-Ribeiro, C.

    1977-01-01

    An environmental survey conducted in high natural radioactivity areas and methods used to evaluated radiation doses received by the population are presented. It is shown doses absorved due to ingestion of radioactively contaminated food and water. Exposure to external gamma radiation fields or inhalation of abnormal quantities of natural airborne radioactivity are discussed [pt

  7. Survey < > Creation

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    2017-01-01

    The project, Survey Creation suggests that point cloud models from 3D scans of an existing space can be the source for explorative drawings. By probing into the procedure of 3D laser scanning, it became possible to make use of the available point clouds to both access geometric representation......) and the creation drawing (of the anticipated)....

  8. Simulators IV

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairchild, B.T.

    1987-01-01

    These proceedings contain papers on simulators with artificial intelligence, and the human decision making process; visuals for simulators: human factors, training, and psycho-physical impacts; the role of institutional structure on simulation projects; maintenance trainers for economic value and safety; biomedical simulators for understanding nature, for medical benefits, and the physiological effects of simulators; the mathematical models and numerical techniques that drive today's simulators; and the demography of simulators, with census papers identifying the population of real-time simulator training devices; nuclear reactors

  9. A survey of TRIPOLI-4

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Both, J.P.; Derriennic, H.; Morillon, B.; Nimal, J.C.

    1994-01-01

    A survey of the new version of the TRIPOLI code used in shielding calculations, is presented. The main new features introduced in this version are: combinatorial geometry, a multigroup automatic weighting scheme, and complete treatment of nuclear evaluation files; a simulation implementation including strategy for parallelization of the code is presented. Some benchmark calculations are also presented. 7 figs., 5 tabs., 4 refs

  10. Readership survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1984-01-01

    The article reviews the last readership survey, which helped to check readers' reactions and the level and style of the journal. The majority of readers (32 per cent), not surprisingly, work in high energy physics. In fact, if the estimate of the world high energy physics population as some 5000 people is correct, CERN Courier reaches every one of them. The next large category of readers is the teaching profession (21 percent), with industrialists (12 per cent) in third place

  11. Simulation Activity in Otolaryngology Residencies.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Deutsch, Ellen S; Wiet, Gregory J; Seidman, Michael; Hussey, Heather M; Malekzadeh, Sonya; Fried, Marvin P

    2015-08-01

    Simulation has become a valuable tool in medical education, and several specialties accept or require simulation as a resource for resident training or assessment as well as for board certification or maintenance of certification. This study investigates current simulation resources and activities in US otolaryngology residency programs and examines interest in advancing simulation training and assessment within the specialty. Web-based survey. US otolaryngology residency training programs. An electronic web-based survey was disseminated to all US otolaryngology program directors to determine their respective institutional and departmental simulation resources, existing simulation activities, and interest in further simulation initiatives. Descriptive results are reported. Responses were received from 43 of 104 (43%) residency programs. Simulation capabilities and resources are available in most respondents' institutions (78.6% report onsite resources; 73.8% report availability of models, manikins, and devices). Most respondents (61%) report limited simulation activity within otolaryngology. Areas of simulation are broad, addressing technical and nontechnical skills related to clinical training (94%). Simulation is infrequently used for research, credentialing, or systems improvement. The majority of respondents (83.8%) expressed interest in participating in multicenter trials of simulation initiatives. Most respondents from otolaryngology residency programs have incorporated some simulation into their curriculum. Interest among program directors to participate in future multicenter trials appears high. Future research efforts in this area should aim to determine optimal simulators and simulation activities for training and assessment as well as how to best incorporate simulation into otolaryngology residency training programs. © American Academy of Otolaryngology—Head and Neck Surgery Foundation 2015.

  12. Total Survey Error for Longitudinal Surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Lynn, Peter; Lugtig, P.J.

    2016-01-01

    This article describes the application of the total survey error paradigm to longitudinal surveys. Several aspects of survey error, and of the interactions between different types of error, are distinct in the longitudinal survey context. Furthermore, error trade-off decisions in survey design and

  13. The DENIS & 2MASS Near Infrared Surveys

    OpenAIRE

    Mamon, Gary

    1996-01-01

    The DENIS and 2MASS near infrared surveys are presented. Their applications in extragalactic astronomy and cosmology are listed. The prospects for a rapid spectroscopic followup survey of a near infrared selected sample of nearly $10^5$ galaxies are illustrated with Monte-Carlo simulations.

  14. Geological survey by high resolution electrical survey on granite areas

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Sugimoto, Yoshihiro; Yamada, Naoyuki

    2002-03-01

    As an Integral part of the geological survey in 'The study of the regions ground water flow system' that we are carrying out with Tono Geoscience Center, we proved the relation between the uncontinuation structure such as lineament in the base rock and resistivity structure (resistivity distribution), for the purpose of that confirms the efficacy of the high resolution electrical survey as geological survey, we carried out high resolution electrical survey on granite area. We obtained the following result, by the comparison of resistivity distribution with established geological survey, lineament analysis and investigative drilling. 1. The resistivity structure of this survey area is almost able to classify it into the following four range. 1) the low resistivity range of 50-800 Ωm, 2) The resistivity range like the middle of 200-2000 Ωm, 3) The high resistivity range of 2000 Ωm over, 4) The low resistivity range of depth of the survey line 400-550 section. 2. The low resistivity range of 4) that correspond with the established geological data is not admitted. 3. It was confirmed that resistivity structure almost correspond to geological structure by the comparison with the established data. 4. The small-scale low resistivity area is admitted in the point equivalent to the lineament position of established. 5. We carried out it with the simulation method about the low resistivity range of 4). As a result, it understood that it has the possibility that the narrow ratio low resistivity area is shown as the wide ratio resistivity range in the analysis section. In the survey in this time, it is conceivable that the resistivity distribution with the possibility of the unhomogeneous and uncontinuation structure of the base rock is being shown conspicuously, the efficacy of the high resolution resistivity survey as geological survey on granite was shown. (author)

  15. Multiple Surveys of Students and Survey Fatigue

    Science.gov (United States)

    Porter, Stephen R.; Whitcomb, Michael E.; Weitzer, William H.

    2004-01-01

    This chapter reviews the literature on survey fatigue and summarizes a research project that indicates that administering multiple surveys in one academic year can significantly suppress response rates in later surveys. (Contains 4 tables.)

  16. Comment on “Beyond the SCS-CN method: A theoretical framework for spatially lumped rainfall-runoff response” by M.S. Bartlett, A.J. Parolari, J.J. McDonnell and A. Porporato

    Science.gov (United States)

    Bartlett et al. [2016] performed a re-interpretation and modification of the space-time lumped USDA NRCS (formerly SCS) Curve Number (CN) method to extend its applicability to forested watersheds. We believe that the well documented limitations of the CN method severely constrains the applicability ...

  17. Reader survey

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Anon.

    1993-10-15

    Many, thanks to the hundreds of people who took the time to reply to the CERN Courier readership survey questionnaire published in our May issue. Bringing out a monthly journal is a lonely business. Issue after issue goes out, and the only response is when there's an occasional factual error. Send out a readership survey and a faint echo comes back. Most striking was the sheer enthusiasm of the replies. Despite the current erosion of support in the US (see page 2), subatomic physics has significant world-wide box-office appeal. Most important was to find out who our readers are. 61% of the replies came from Europe, 21% from the USA, 14% from elsewhere, (including the former Soviet Union), and 4% from inside CERN. Not surprisingly, the main audience (37%) is in the high energy physics sector. Then comes teaching (31%), followed closely by accelerators operations and design (12%) and industry (11%). Apart from detailed breakdowns of readership and feedback on the journal's content and style, the replies revealed several major features. Firstly, the CERN Courier is widely read and appreciated. There are a lot of people outside the immediate research field who want to keep broadly up to date with the latest developments in high energy physics and related fields, without getting too involved in details. It was gratifying to receive replies from far-flung places (Nepal, Indonesia,....), and learn how much distant readers appreciate getting such regular information. 'It helps us feel part of the world scene,' was a typical such reply, from Australia. Despite jet airplanes, fax and electronic mail, our planet is still big.

  18. Reader survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon.

    1993-01-01

    Many, thanks to the hundreds of people who took the time to reply to the CERN Courier readership survey questionnaire published in our May issue. Bringing out a monthly journal is a lonely business. Issue after issue goes out, and the only response is when there's an occasional factual error. Send out a readership survey and a faint echo comes back. Most striking was the sheer enthusiasm of the replies. Despite the current erosion of support in the US (see page 2), subatomic physics has significant world-wide box-office appeal. Most important was to find out who our readers are. 61% of the replies came from Europe, 21% from the USA, 14% from elsewhere, (including the former Soviet Union), and 4% from inside CERN. Not surprisingly, the main audience (37%) is in the high energy physics sector. Then comes teaching (31%), followed closely by accelerators operations and design (12%) and industry (11%). Apart from detailed breakdowns of readership and feedback on the journal's content and style, the replies revealed several major features. Firstly, the CERN Courier is widely read and appreciated. There are a lot of people outside the immediate research field who want to keep broadly up to date with the latest developments in high energy physics and related fields, without getting too involved in details. It was gratifying to receive replies from far-flung places (Nepal, Indonesia,....), and learn how much distant readers appreciate getting such regular information. 'It helps us feel part of the world scene,' was a typical such reply, from Australia. Despite jet airplanes, fax and electronic mail, our planet is still big

  19. The LSST operations simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    Delgado, Francisco; Saha, Abhijit; Chandrasekharan, Srinivasan; Cook, Kem; Petry, Catherine; Ridgway, Stephen

    2014-08-01

    The Operations Simulator for the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope (LSST; http://www.lsst.org) allows the planning of LSST observations that obey explicit science driven observing specifications, patterns, schema, and priorities, while optimizing against the constraints placed by design-specific opto-mechanical system performance of the telescope facility, site specific conditions as well as additional scheduled and unscheduled downtime. It has a detailed model to simulate the external conditions with real weather history data from the site, a fully parameterized kinematic model for the internal conditions of the telescope, camera and dome, and serves as a prototype for an automatic scheduler for the real time survey operations with LSST. The Simulator is a critical tool that has been key since very early in the project, to help validate the design parameters of the observatory against the science requirements and the goals from specific science programs. A simulation run records the characteristics of all observations (e.g., epoch, sky position, seeing, sky brightness) in a MySQL database, which can be queried for any desired purpose. Derivative information digests of the observing history are made with an analysis package called Simulation Survey Tools for Analysis and Reporting (SSTAR). Merit functions and metrics have been designed to examine how suitable a specific simulation run is for several different science applications. Software to efficiently compare the efficacy of different survey strategies for a wide variety of science applications using such a growing set of metrics is under development. A recent restructuring of the code allows us to a) use "look-ahead" strategies that avoid cadence sequences that cannot be completed due to observing constraints; and b) examine alternate optimization strategies, so that the most efficient scheduling algorithm(s) can be identified and used: even few-percent efficiency gains will create substantive scientific

  20. Simulating Vito

    CERN Document Server

    Fragapane, Alexander

    2013-01-01

    This paper discusses the techniques used to simulate the proposed upgrade to the ASPIC line at ISOLDE, VITO. It discusses the process used in the program SIMION by explaining how to start with an Autodesk Inventor drawing and import this into SIMION to get a working simulation. It then goes on to discuss the pieces of VITO which have been simulated in the program and how they were simulated. Finally, it explains a little about the simulations of the full beamline which have been done and discusses what still needs to be done.

  1. Simulators of nuclear power stations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Zanobetti, D.

    1984-01-01

    The report deals with the simulators of nuclear power stations used for the training of operators and for the analysis of operations. It reviews the development of analogical, hybrid and digital simulators up to the present, indicating the impact resulting from the TMI-2 accident. It indicates, the components of simulators and the present accepted terminology for a classification of the various types of simulators. It reviews the present state of the art of the technology: how a basic mathematical model of a nuclear power system is worked out and what are the technical problems associated with more accurate models. Examples of elaborate models are given: for a PWR pressurizer, for an AGR steam generator. It also discusses certain problems of hardware technology. Characteristics of present replica simulators are given with certain details: simulated transient evolutions and malfunctions, accuracy of simulation. The work concerning the assessment of the validity of certain simulators is reported. A list of simulator manufacturers and a survey of the principal simulators in operation in the countries of the European Community, in the United States, and in certain other countries are presented. Problem associated with the use of simulators as training facilities, and their use as operational devices are discussed. Studies and research in progress for the expected future development of simulators are reviewed

  2. Multi-filter spectrophotometry simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Callaghan, Kim A. S.; Gibson, Brad K.; Hickson, Paul

    1993-01-01

    To complement both the multi-filter observations of quasar environments described in these proceedings, as well as the proposed UBC 2.7 m Liquid Mirror Telescope (LMT) redshift survey, we have initiated a program of simulated multi-filter spectrophotometry. The goal of this work, still very much in progress, is a better quantitative assessment of the multiband technique as a viable mechanism for obtaining useful redshift and morphological class information from large scale multi-filter surveys.

  3. Literature survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Drury, J.S.; Michelson, D.; Ensminger, J.T.

    1982-01-01

    Literature was searched for methods of removing uranium from drinking water. No relevant papers were found, but approximately 1000 publications were identified in a less specific search for methods of removing uranium from water. Most of the latter publications dealt with the recovery of uranium from ores, industrial and analytical chemistry solutions, or seawater. The conditions under which these studies were performed were usually quite different from those normally occurring in municipal water treatment practice, but some potentially interesting systems of recovery were identified. A few papers addressed the problem of removing uranium from natural fresh waters and established the effectiveness of using adsorbents or coprecipitants, such as aluminum hydroxide, ferric hydroxide, activated carbon, and ion exchangers, under certain conditions. Also, many US manufacturers and users of water treatment equipment and products were contacted regarding recommended methods of removing uranium from potable water. Based on the results of these surveys, it is recommended that untreated, partially treated, and finished water samples from municipal water treatment facilities be analyzed to determine their extent of removal of uranium by presently used procedures. In addition, laboratory studies are suggested to determine what changes, if any, are needed to maximize the effectiveness of treatments that are already in use in existing water treatment plants

  4. Simulation games

    OpenAIRE

    Giddings, S.

    2013-01-01

    This chapter outlines the conventions and pleasures of simulation games as a category, and explores the complicated and contested term simulation. This concept goes to the heart of what computer games and video games are, and the ways in which they articulate ideas, processes, and phenomena between their virtual worlds and the actual world. It has been argued that simulations generate and communicate knowledge and events quite differently from the long-­dominant cultural mode of narrative. Th...

  5. Simulation reframed.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kneebone, Roger L

    2016-01-01

    Simulation is firmly established as a mainstay of clinical education, and extensive research has demonstrated its value. Current practice uses inanimate simulators (with a range of complexity, sophistication and cost) to address the patient 'as body' and trained actors or lay people (Simulated Patients) to address the patient 'as person'. These approaches are often separate.Healthcare simulation to date has been largely for the training and assessment of clinical 'insiders', simulating current practices. A close coupling with the clinical world restricts access to the facilities and practices of simulation, often excluding patients, families and publics. Yet such perspectives are an essential component of clinical practice. This paper argues that simulation offers opportunities to move outside a clinical 'insider' frame and create connections with other individuals and groups. Simulation becomes a bridge between experts whose worlds do not usually intersect, inviting an exchange of insights around embodied practices-the 'doing' of medicine-without jeopardising the safety of actual patients.Healthcare practice and education take place within a clinical frame that often conceals parallels with other domains of expert practice. Valuable insights emerge by viewing clinical practice not only as the application of medical science but also as performance and craftsmanship.Such connections require a redefinition of simulation. Its essence is not expensive elaborate facilities. Developments such as hybrid, distributed and sequential simulation offer examples of how simulation can combine 'patient as body' with 'patient as person' at relatively low cost, democratising simulation and exerting traction beyond the clinical sphere.The essence of simulation is a purposeful design, based on an active process of selection from an originary world, abstraction of what is criterial and re - presentation in another setting for a particular purpose or audience. This may be done within

  6. Simulated experiments

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Bjerknes, R.

    1977-01-01

    A cybernetic model has been developed to elucidate some of the main principles of the growth regulation system in the epidermis of the hairless mouse. A number of actual and theoretical biological experiments have been simulated on the model. These included simulating the cell kinetics as measured by pulse labelling with tritiated thymidine and by continuous labelling with tritiated thymidine. Other simulated experiments included steady state, wear and tear, painting with a carcinogen, heredity and heredity and tumour. Numerous diagrams illustrate the results of these simulated experiments. (JIW)

  7. Science with Synthetic Stellar Surveys

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sanderson, Robyn Ellyn

    2018-04-01

    A new generation of observational projects is poised to revolutionize our understanding of the resolved stellar populations of Milky-Way-like galaxies at an unprecedented level of detail, ushering in an era of precision studies of galaxy formation. In the Milky Way itself, astrometric, spectroscopic and photometric surveys will measure three-dimensional positions and velocities and numerous chemical abundances for stars from the disk to the halo, as well as for many satellite dwarf galaxies. In the Local Group and beyond, HST, JWST and eventually WFIRST will deliver pristine views of resolved stars. The groundbreaking scale and dimensionality of this new view of resolved stellar populations in galaxies challenge us to develop new theoretical tools to robustly compare these surveys to simulated galaxies, in order to take full advantage of our new ability to make detailed predictions for stellar populations within a cosmological context. I will describe a framework for generating realistic synthetic star catalogs and mock surveys from state-of-the-art cosmological-hydrodynamical simulations, and present several early scientific results from, and predictions for, resolved stellar surveys of our Galaxy and its neighbors.

  8. Excel simulations

    CERN Document Server

    Verschuuren, Gerard M

    2013-01-01

    Covering a variety of Excel simulations, from gambling to genetics, this introduction is for people interested in modeling future events, without the cost of an expensive textbook. The simulations covered offer a fun alternative to the usual Excel topics and include situations such as roulette, password cracking, sex determination, population growth, and traffic patterns, among many others.

  9. Simulating Science

    Science.gov (United States)

    Markowitz, Dina; Holt, Susan

    2011-01-01

    Students use manipulative models and small-scale simulations that promote learning of complex biological concepts. The authors have developed inexpensive wet-lab simulations and manipulative models for "Diagnosing Diabetes," "A Kidney Problem?" and "A Medical Mystery." (Contains 5 figures and 3 online resources.)

  10. Studying dark energy with galaxy cluster surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, Joseph J.; O'Shea, Brian; Evrard, August E.; Bialek, John; Haiman, Zoltan

    2003-01-01

    Galaxy cluster surveys provide a powerful means of studying the density and nature of the dark energy. The redshift distribution of detected clusters in a deep, large solid angle SZE or X-ray survey is highly sensitive to the dark energy equation of state. Accurate constraints at the 5% level on the dark energy equation of state require that systematic biases in the mass estimators must be controlled at better than the ∼10% level. Observed regularity in the cluster population and the availability of multiple, independent mass estimators suggests these precise measurements are possible. Using hydrodynamical simulations that include preheating, we show that the level of preheating required to explain local galaxy cluster structure has a dramatic effect on X-ray cluster surveys, but only a mild effect on SZE surveys. This suggests that SZE surveys may be optimal for cosmology while X-ray surveys are well suited for studies of the thermal history of the intracluster medium

  11. Simulation tools

    CERN Document Server

    Jenni, F

    2006-01-01

    In the last two decades, simulation tools made a significant contribution to the great progress in development of power electronics. Time to market was shortened and development costs were reduced drastically. Falling costs, as well as improved speed and precision, opened new fields of application. Today, continuous and switched circuits can be mixed. A comfortable number of powerful simulation tools is available. The users have to choose the best suitable for their application. Here a simple rule applies: The best available simulation tool is the tool the user is already used to (provided, it can solve the task). Abilities, speed, user friendliness and other features are continuously being improved—even though they are already powerful and comfortable. This paper aims at giving the reader an insight into the simulation of power electronics. Starting with a short description of the fundamentals of a simulation tool as well as properties of tools, several tools are presented. Starting with simplified models ...

  12. Alumni Perspectives Survey, 2010. Survey Report

    Science.gov (United States)

    Sheikh, Sabeen

    2010-01-01

    During the months of April and September of 2009, the Graduate Management Admission Council[R] (GMAC[R]) conducted the Alumni Perspectives Survey, a longitudinal study of prior respondents to the Global Management Education Graduate Survey of management students nearing graduation. A total of 3,708 alumni responded to the April 2009 survey,…

  13. A Bayesian Hierarchical Modeling Approach to Predicting Flow in Ungauged Basins

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gronewold, A.; Alameddine, I.; Anderson, R. M.

    2009-12-01

    Recent innovative approaches to identifying and applying regression-based relationships between land use patterns (such as increasing impervious surface area and decreasing vegetative cover) and rainfall-runoff model parameters represent novel and promising improvements to predicting flow from ungauged basins. In particular, these approaches allow for predicting flows under uncertain and potentially variable future conditions due to rapid land cover changes, variable climate conditions, and other factors. Despite the broad range of literature on estimating rainfall-runoff model parameters, however, the absence of a robust set of modeling tools for identifying and quantifying uncertainties in (and correlation between) rainfall-runoff model parameters represents a significant gap in current hydrological modeling research. Here, we build upon a series of recent publications promoting novel Bayesian and probabilistic modeling strategies for quantifying rainfall-runoff model parameter estimation uncertainty. Our approach applies alternative measures of rainfall-runoff model parameter joint likelihood (including Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, among others) to simulate samples from the joint parameter posterior probability density function. We then use these correlated samples as response variables in a Bayesian hierarchical model with land use coverage data as predictor variables in order to develop a robust land use-based tool for forecasting flow in ungauged basins while accounting for, and explicitly acknowledging, parameter estimation uncertainty. We apply this modeling strategy to low-relief coastal watersheds of Eastern North Carolina, an area representative of coastal resource waters throughout the world because of its sensitive embayments and because of the abundant (but currently threatened) natural resources it hosts. Consequently, this area is the subject of several ongoing studies and large-scale planning initiatives, including those conducted through the United

  14. Estimating Composite Curve Number Using an Improved SCS-CN Method with Remotely Sensed Variables in Guangzhou, China

    OpenAIRE

    Fan, Fenglei; Deng, Yingbin; Hu, Xuefei; Weng, Qihao

    2013-01-01

    The rainfall and runoff relationship becomes an intriguing issue as urbanization continues to evolve worldwide. In this paper, we developed a simulation model based on the soil conservation service curve number (SCS-CN) method to analyze the rainfall-runoff relationship in Guangzhou, a rapid growing metropolitan area in southern China. The SCS-CN method was initially developed by the Natural Resources Conservation Service (NRCS) of the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), and is on...

  15. Combining Hydrological Modeling and Remote Sensing Observations to Enable Data-Driven Decision Making for Devils Lake Flood Mitigation in a Changing Climate

    Science.gov (United States)

    Zhang, Xiaodong; Kirilenko, Andrei; Lim, Howe; Teng, Williams

    2010-01-01

    This slide presentation reviews work to combine the hydrological models and remote sensing observations to monitor Devils Lake in North Dakota, to assist in flood damage mitigation. This reports on the use of a distributed rainfall-runoff model, HEC-HMS, to simulate the hydro-dynamics of the lake watershed, and used NASA's remote sensing data, including the TRMM Multi-Satellite Precipitation Analysis (TMPA) and AIRS surface air temperature, to drive the model.

  16. Final Report on Geoscience Center Research

    Science.gov (United States)

    1992-11-01

    utilizes the capabilities of AutoCAD version 9 and three AutoLISP programs: BASINS, PLANES and CHANNELS, to extract, organize and display watershed data...capabilities of AutoCAD rainfall-runoff simulation and an example application version 9 and three programs, BASINS, PLANES, and CHAN- to Macks Creek...the program CN to calculate some HEC-1 parameter values, machine, a True Grid 8017 digitizing tablet, AutoCAD Phase I utilizes the program HECUPDATE to

  17. Simulator justifications

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fairchild, B.T.

    1990-01-01

    For several years, the authors have been convinced by overwhelming evidence that dynamic simulators are justified for many applications where acceptance has been slow. They speculate as to why this situation has existed and list many benefits that accrue to those who use simulators for training and other purposes. This paper along may be sufficient to convince a receptive approval chain of the value of simulator ownership. It is intended primarily as an aid and supporting document for those who find it necessary to build a detailed justification for a specific simulator acquisition. The purchase of a simulator requires justification. For new military aircraft and for spacecraft, a simulator for training and performance evaluation is virtually assumed, value having been proven many times over. for commercial aircraft, safety is the overwhelming justification. For nuclear power plants, government regulations require operators to be licensed by examination on a certified simulator. For other applications, including air traffic control, biomedical, communications, electronic power transmission and distribution, emergency engineering and management, fossil power plants, gaming land vehicles, manufacturing, maintenance, marine vehicles, process plants, weapons, etc

  18. An overview of the design and analysis of simulation experiments for sensitivity analysis

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Kleijnen, J.P.C.

    2005-01-01

    Sensitivity analysis may serve validation, optimization, and risk analysis of simulation models. This review surveys 'classic' and 'modern' designs for experiments with simulation models. Classic designs were developed for real, non-simulated systems in agriculture, engineering, etc. These designs

  19. Process simulation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Cao, E.G.; Suarez, P.S.; Pantaleon, J.C.

    1984-01-01

    The search for an optimal design of a heavy water plant is done by means of a simulation model for the mass and enthalpy balances of the SH 2 -H 2 O exchange process. A symplified model for the simulation diagram where the entire plant is represented by a sole tray tower with recicles, and heat and mass feeds/extractions was used. The tower is simulated by the method developed by Tomich with the convergence part given by the algorithm of Broyden. The concluding part of the work is centered in setting the design parameters (flowrates, heat exchange rates, number of plates) wich give the desired process operating conditions. (author) [es

  20. Solar Simulator

    Science.gov (United States)

    1981-01-01

    Oriel Corporation's simulators have a high pressure xenon lamp whose reflected light is processed by an optical system to produce a uniform solar beam. Because of many different types of applications, the simulators must be adjustable to replicate many different areas of the solar radiation spectrum. Simulators are laboratory tools for such purposes as testing and calibrating solar cells, or other solar energy systems, testing dyes, paints and pigments, pharmaceuticals and cosmetic preparations, plant and animal studies, food and agriculture studies and oceanographic research.

  1. Multimagnetical simulations

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Hansmann, U.; Berg, B.A.; Florida State Univ., Tallahassee, FL; Neuhaus, T.

    1992-01-01

    We modified the recently proposed multicanonical MC algorithm for the case of a magnetic field driven order-order phase transition. We test this multimagnetic Monte Carlo algorithm for the D = 2 Ising model at β = 0.5 and simulate square lattices up to size 100 x 100. On these lattices with periodic boundary conditions it is possible to enhance the appearance of order-order interfaces during the simulation by many orders of magnitude as compared to the standard Monte Carlo simulation

  2. Lesotho - Enterprise Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    Millennium Challenge Corporation — The 2011 MCA-Lesotho baseline enterprise survey is a national survey of enterprises. The main objective of the survey was to assess the current status of businesses...

  3. 2015 Community Survey Data

    Data.gov (United States)

    Town of Chapel Hill, North Carolina — These are the answers to the 2015 Community Survey.A comprehensive summary of the survey results can be found here.The survey asked town members to address their...

  4. Transport of lincomycin to surface and ground water from manure-amended cropland.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kuchta, Sandra L; Cessna, Allan J; Elliott, Jane A; Peru, Kerry M; Headley, John V

    2009-01-01

    Livestock manure containing antimicrobials becomes a possible source of these compounds to surface and ground waters when applied to cropland as a nutrient source. The potential for transport of the veterinary antimicrobial lincomycin to surface waters via surface runoff and to leach to ground water was assessed by monitoring manure-amended soil, simulated rainfall runoff, snowmelt runoff, and ground water over a 2-yr period in Saskatchewan, Canada, after fall application of liquid swine manure to cropland. Liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry was used to quantify lincomycin in all matrix extracts. Initial concentrations in soil (46.3-117 mug kg(-1)) were not significantly different (p > 0.05) for manure application rates ranging from 60,000 to 95,000 L ha(-1) and had decreased to nondetectable levels by mid-summer the following year. After fall manure application, lincomycin was present in all simulated rainfall runoff (0.07-2.7 mug L(-1)) and all snowmelt runoff (0.038-3.2 mug L(-1)) samples. Concentrations in snowmelt runoff were not significantly different from those in simulated rainfall runoff the previous fall. On average, lincomycin concentrations in ephemeral wetlands dissipated by 50% after 31 d. Concentrations of lincomycin in ground water were generally <0.005 mug L(-1). This study demonstrates that the management practice of using livestock manure from confined animal feeding operations as a plant nutrient source on cropland may result in antimicrobial transport to surface and ground waters.

  5. What can be learned from the Simonette flood of August 1987?

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Rodman, R.F.

    1991-01-01

    The 1987 Simonette flood in Alberta was of unprecedented magnitude. It has been estimated as a 300- to 500-year return period event. Approximately 220 mm of precipitation fell over the 5,050 km 2 area in a day and a half, with 85% falling in a 24 hour period. The Streamflow Synthesis and Reservoir Regulation (SSARR) rainfall-runoff model of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers, was used to try to simulate the flood. It was concluded that the flood could not be modelled because cascading debris dams and a landslide modified the rainfall-runoff hydrograph. Physical processes such as debris dams and landslides should be allowed for when selecting design events in hydrotechnical engineering. Sound engineering judgement must be applied on a case-by-case specific basis to justify this additional design allowance. 11 refs., 5 figs., 1 tab

  6. Structured building model reduction toward parallel simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Dobbs, Justin R. [Cornell University; Hencey, Brondon M. [Cornell University

    2013-08-26

    Building energy model reduction exchanges accuracy for improved simulation speed by reducing the number of dynamical equations. Parallel computing aims to improve simulation times without loss of accuracy but is poorly utilized by contemporary simulators and is inherently limited by inter-processor communication. This paper bridges these disparate techniques to implement efficient parallel building thermal simulation. We begin with a survey of three structured reduction approaches that compares their performance to a leading unstructured method. We then use structured model reduction to find thermal clusters in the building energy model and allocate processing resources. Experimental results demonstrate faster simulation and low error without any interprocessor communication.

  7. Using Electronic Surveys: Advice from Survey Professionals.

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David M. Shannon

    2002-01-01

    Full Text Available The study reports the perceptions and recommendations of sixty-two experienced survey..researchers from the American Educational Research Association regarding the use of..electronic surveys. The most positive aspects cited for the use of electronic surveys were..reduction of costs (i.e., postage, phone charges, the use of electronic mail for pre-notification or..follow-up purposes, and the compatibility of data with existing software programs. These..professionals expressed limitations in using electronic surveys pertaining to the limited..sampling frame as well as issues of confidentiality, privacy, and the credibility of the sample...They advised that electronic surveys designed with the varied technological background and..capabilities of the respondent in mind, follow sound principles of survey construction, and be..administered to pre-notified, targeted populations with published email addresses.

  8. HOST GALAXY IDENTIFICATION FOR SUPERNOVA SURVEYS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Ravi R.; Kuhlmann, Steve; Kovacs, Eve; Spinka, Harold; Kessler, Richard; Goldstein, Daniel A.; Liotine, Camille; Pomian, Katarzyna; D’Andrea, Chris B.; Sullivan, Mark; Carretero, Jorge; Castander, Francisco J.; Nichol, Robert C.; Finley, David A.; Fischer, John A.; Foley, Ryan J.; Kim, Alex G.; Papadopoulos, Andreas; Sako, Masao; Scolnic, Daniel M.; Smith, Mathew; Tucker, Brad E.; Uddin, Syed; Wolf, Rachel C.; Yuan, Fang; Abbott, Tim M. C.; Abdalla, Filipe B.; Benoit-Lévy, Aurélien; Bertin, Emmanuel; Brooks, David; Rosell, Aurelio Carnero; Kind, Matias Carrasco; Cunha, Carlos E.; Costa, Luiz N. da; Desai, Shantanu; Doel, Peter; Eifler, Tim F.; Evrard, August E.; Flaugher, Brenna; Fosalba, Pablo; Gaztañaga, Enrique; Gruen, Daniel; Gruendl, Robert; James, David J.; Kuehn, Kyler; Kuropatkin, Nikolay; Maia, Marcio A. G.; Marshall, Jennifer L.; Miquel, Ramon; Plazas, Andrés A.; Romer, A. Kathy; Sánchez, Eusebio; Schubnell, Michael; Sevilla-Noarbe, Ignacio; Sobreira, Flávia; Suchyta, Eric; Swanson, Molly E. C.; Tarle, Gregory; Walker, Alistair R.; Wester, William

    2016-11-08

    Host galaxy identification is a crucial step for modern supernova (SN) surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, which will discover SNe by the thousands. Spectroscopic resources are limited, and so in the absence of real-time SN spectra these surveys must rely on host galaxy spectra to obtain accurate redshifts for the Hubble diagram and to improve photometric classification of SNe. In addition, SN luminosities are known to correlate with host-galaxy properties. Therefore, reliable identification of host galaxies is essential for cosmology and SN science. We simulate SN events and their locations within their host galaxies to develop and test methods for matching SNe to their hosts. We use both real and simulated galaxy catalog data from the Advanced Camera for Surveys General Catalog and MICECATv2.0, respectively. We also incorporate "hostless" SNe residing in undetected faint hosts into our analysis, with an assumed hostless rate of 5%. Our fully automated algorithm is run on catalog data and matches SNe to their hosts with 91% accuracy. We find that including a machine learning component, run after the initial matching algorithm, improves the accuracy (purity) of the matching to 97% with a 2% cost in efficiency (true positive rate). Although the exact results are dependent on the details of the survey and the galaxy catalogs used, the method of identifying host galaxies we outline here can be applied to any transient survey.

  9. HOST GALAXY IDENTIFICATION FOR SUPERNOVA SURVEYS

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Gupta, Ravi R.; Kuhlmann, Steve; Kovacs, Eve; Spinka, Harold; Liotine, Camille; Pomian, Katarzyna [Argonne National Laboratory, 9700 South Cass Avenue, Lemont, IL 60439 (United States); Kessler, Richard; Scolnic, Daniel M. [Kavli Institute for Cosmological Physics, University of Chicago, Chicago, IL 60637 (United States); Goldstein, Daniel A. [Department of Astronomy, University of California, Berkeley, 501 Campbell Hall #3411, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); D’Andrea, Chris B.; Nichol, Robert C.; Papadopoulos, Andreas [Institute of Cosmology and Gravitation, University of Portsmouth, Portsmouth, PO1 3FX (United Kingdom); Sullivan, Mark [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Southampton, Southampton, SO17 1BJ (United Kingdom); Carretero, Jorge; Castander, Francisco J. [Institut de Ciències de l’Espai, IEEC-CSIC, Campus UAB, Carrer de Can Magrans, s/n, E-08193 Bellaterra, Barcelona (Spain); Finley, David A. [Fermi National Accelerator Laboratory, P.O. Box 500, Batavia, IL 60510 (United States); Fischer, John A.; Sako, Masao [Department of Physics and Astronomy, University of Pennsylvania, 209 South 33rd Street, Philadelphia, PA 19104 (United States); Foley, Ryan J. [Department of Astronomy, University of Illinois, 1002 W. Green Street, Urbana, IL 61801 (United States); Kim, Alex G., E-mail: raviryan@gmail.com [Physics Division, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, 1 Cyclotron Road, Berkeley, CA 94720 (United States); and others

    2016-12-01

    Host galaxy identification is a crucial step for modern supernova (SN) surveys such as the Dark Energy Survey and the Large Synoptic Survey Telescope, which will discover SNe by the thousands. Spectroscopic resources are limited, and so in the absence of real-time SN spectra these surveys must rely on host galaxy spectra to obtain accurate redshifts for the Hubble diagram and to improve photometric classification of SNe. In addition, SN luminosities are known to correlate with host-galaxy properties. Therefore, reliable identification of host galaxies is essential for cosmology and SN science. We simulate SN events and their locations within their host galaxies to develop and test methods for matching SNe to their hosts. We use both real and simulated galaxy catalog data from the Advanced Camera for Surveys General Catalog and MICECATv2.0, respectively. We also incorporate “hostless” SNe residing in undetected faint hosts into our analysis, with an assumed hostless rate of 5%. Our fully automated algorithm is run on catalog data and matches SNe to their hosts with 91% accuracy. We find that including a machine learning component, run after the initial matching algorithm, improves the accuracy (purity) of the matching to 97% with a 2% cost in efficiency (true positive rate). Although the exact results are dependent on the details of the survey and the galaxy catalogs used, the method of identifying host galaxies we outline here can be applied to any transient survey.

  10. Simulation optimisation

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Anon

    2010-01-01

    Over the past decade there has been a significant advance in flotation circuit optimisation through performance benchmarking using metallurgical modelling and steady-state computer simulation. This benchmarking includes traditional measures, such as grade and recovery, as well as new flotation measures, such as ore floatability, bubble surface area flux and froth recovery. To further this optimisation, Outotec has released its HSC Chemistry software with simulation modules. The flotation model developed by the AMIRA P9 Project, of which Outotec is a sponsor, is regarded by industry as the most suitable flotation model to use for circuit optimisation. This model incorporates ore floatability with flotation cell pulp and froth parameters, residence time, entrainment and water recovery. Outotec's HSC Sim enables you to simulate mineral processes in different levels, from comminution circuits with sizes and no composition, through to flotation processes with minerals by size by floatability components, to full processes with true particles with MLA data.

  11. Grey Forecast Rainfall with Flow Updating Algorithm for Real-Time Flood Forecasting

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Jui-Yi Ho

    2015-04-01

    Full Text Available The dynamic relationship between watershed characteristics and rainfall-runoff has been widely studied in recent decades. Since watershed rainfall-runoff is a non-stationary process, most deterministic flood forecasting approaches are ineffective without the assistance of adaptive algorithms. The purpose of this paper is to propose an effective flow forecasting system that integrates a rainfall forecasting model, watershed runoff model, and real-time updating algorithm. This study adopted a grey rainfall forecasting technique, based on existing hourly rainfall data. A geomorphology-based runoff model can be used for simulating impacts of the changing geo-climatic conditions on the hydrologic response of unsteady and non-linear watershed system, and flow updating algorithm were combined to estimate watershed runoff according to measured flow data. The proposed flood forecasting system was applied to three watersheds; one in the United States and two in Northern Taiwan. Four sets of rainfall-runoff simulations were performed to test the accuracy of the proposed flow forecasting technique. The results indicated that the forecast and observed hydrographs are in good agreement for all three watersheds. The proposed flow forecasting system could assist authorities in minimizing loss of life and property during flood events.

  12. Nonstationarities in Catchment Response According to Basin and Rainfall Characteristics: Application to Korean Watershed

    Science.gov (United States)

    Kwon, Hyun-Han; Kim, Jin-Guk; Jung, Il-Won

    2015-04-01

    It must be acknowledged that application of rainfall-runoff models to simulate rainfall-runoff processes are successful in gauged watershed. However, there still remain some issues that will need to be further discussed. In particular, the quantitive representation of nonstationarity issue in basin response (e.g. concentration time, storage coefficient and roughness) along with ungauged watershed needs to be studied. In this regard, this study aims to investigate nonstationarity in basin response so as to potentially provide useful information in simulating runoff processes in ungauged watershed. For this purpose, HEC-1 rainfall-runoff model was mainly utilized. In addition, this study combined HEC-1 model with Bayesian statistical model to estimate uncertainty of the parameters which is called Bayesian HEC-1 (BHEC-1). The proposed rainfall-runofall model is applied to various catchments along with various rainfall patterns to understand nonstationarities in catchment response. Further discussion about the nonstationarity in catchment response and possible regionalization of the parameters for ungauged watershed are discussed. KEYWORDS: Nonstationary, Catchment response, Uncertainty, Bayesian Acknowledgement This research was supported by a Grant (13SCIPA01) from Smart Civil Infrastructure Research Program funded by the Ministry of Land, Infrastructure and Transport (MOLIT) of Korea government and the Korea Agency for Infrastructure Technology Advancement (KAIA).

  13. Simulating Gravity

    Science.gov (United States)

    Pipinos, Savas

    2010-01-01

    This article describes one classroom activity in which the author simulates the Newtonian gravity, and employs the Euclidean Geometry with the use of new technologies (NT). The prerequisites for this activity were some knowledge of the formulae for a particle free fall in Physics and most certainly, a good understanding of the notion of similarity…

  14. Plant simulator

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Fukumitsu, Hiroyuki

    1998-01-01

    A simulator of a reactor plant of the present invention comprises a plurality of distributed computers, an indication processing section and an operation section. The simulation calculation functions of various kinds of plant models in the plant are shared by the plurality of computers. The indication processing section controls collection of data of the plant simulated by the computers and instructions of an operator. The operation section is operated by the operator and the results of operation are transmitted to the indication processing section, to conduct operation trainings and display the results of the simulation. Each of the computers and the indication processing portion are connected with each other by a network having a memory for common use. Data such as the results of calculation of plant models and various kinds of parameters of the plant required commonly to the calculators and the indication processing section are stored in the common memory, and adapted to be used by way of the network. (N.H.)

  15. BPU Simulator

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Rehr, Martin; Skovhede, Kenneth; Vinter, Brian

    2013-01-01

    in that process. Our goal is to support all execution platforms, and in this work we introduce the Bohrium Processing Unit, BPU, which will be the FPGA backend for Bohrium. The BPU is modeled as a PyCSP application, and the clear advantages of using CSP for simulating a new CPU is described. The current Py...

  16. Simulations of seismic acquisition footprint

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Cooper, J.; Margrave, G.; Lawton, D. [Calgary Univ., AB (Canada)

    2008-07-01

    Numerical simulations were performed to investigate the causes of commonly observed artefacts in seismic field data. These seismic acquisition footprints typically consist of modulations in recorded amplitudes that are spatially correlated to the surface locations of sources and receivers used in a survey. Two broad classes of footprint were considered, notably amplitude variations related to the edges of the survey and the amplitude variations in the interior of the survey. The variations in amplitude obscure the true reflection response of the subsurface. The MATLAB numerical modelling code was used to produce the synthetic seismic data and create a thorough dataset using a survey design incorporating dense grids of sources and receivers. The footprint consisting of periodic amplitude variations in the interior of the surveys, similar to that observed in field data and likely produced by poor sampling, was observed in the decimated dataset. This type of footprint varied in strength between images produced with different processing algorithms. The observed footprint in these simulations was most organized in the unmigrated stack and was somewhat randomized after poststack. 2 refs., 1 tab., 3 figs.

  17. The environmental survey manual

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    1987-08-01

    The purpose of this manual is to provide guidance to the Survey and Sampling and Analysis teams that conduct the one-time Environmental Survey of the major US Department of Energy (DOE) operating facilities. This manual includes a discussion of DOE's policy on environmental issues, a review of statutory guidance as it applies to the Survey, the procedures and protocols to be used by the Survey teams, criteria for the use of the Survey teams in evaluating existing environmental data for the Survey effort, generic technical checklists used in every Survey, health and safety guidelines for the personnel conducting the Survey, including the identification of potential hazards, prescribed protective equipment, and emergency procedures, the required formats for the Survey reports, guidance on identifying environmental problems that need immediate attention by the Operations Office responsible for the particular facility, and procedures and protocols for the conduct of sampling and analysis

  18. Aerial radiation surveys

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Jobst, J.

    1980-01-01

    A recent aerial radiation survey of the surroundings of the Vitro mill in Salt Lake City shows that uranium mill tailings have been removed to many locations outside their original boundary. To date, 52 remote sites have been discovered within a 100 square kilometer aerial survey perimeter surrounding the mill; 9 of these were discovered with the recent aerial survey map. Five additional sites, also discovered by aerial survey, contained uranium ore, milling equipment, or radioactive slag. Because of the success of this survey, plans are being made to extend the aerial survey program to other parts of the Salt Lake valley where diversions of Vitro tailings are also known to exist

  19. Observing Galaxy Mergers in Simulations

    Science.gov (United States)

    Snyder, Gregory

    2018-01-01

    I will describe results on mergers and morphology of distant galaxies. By mock-observing 3D cosmological simulations, we aim to contrast theory with data, design better diagnostics of physical processes, and examine unexpected signatures of galaxy formation. Recently, we conducted mock surveys of the Illustris Simulations to learn how mergers would appear in deep HST and JWST surveys. With this approach, we reconciled merger rates estimated using observed close galaxy pairs with intrinsic merger rates predicted by theory. This implies that the merger-pair observability time is probably shorter in the early universe, and therefore that major mergers are more common than implied by the simplest arguments. Further, we show that disturbance-based diagnostics of late-stage mergers can be improved significantly by combining multi-dimensional image information with simulated merger identifications to train automated classifiers. We then apply these classifiers to real measurements from the CANDELS fields, recovering a merger fraction increasing with redshift in broad agreement with pair fractions and simulations, and with statistical errors smaller by a factor of two than classical morphology estimators. This emphasizes the importance of using robust training sets, including cosmological simulations and multidimensional data, for interpreting observed processes in galaxy evolution.

  20. A coupled hydrological-hydraulic flood inundation model calibrated using post-event measurements and integrated uncertainty analysis in a poorly gauged Mediterranean basin

    Science.gov (United States)

    Hdeib, Rouya; Abdallah, Chadi; Moussa, Roger; Colin, Francois

    2017-04-01

    Developing flood inundation maps of defined exceedance probabilities is required to provide information on the flood hazard and the associated risk. A methodology has been developed to model flood inundation in poorly gauged basins, where reliable information on the hydrological characteristics of floods are uncertain and partially captured by the traditional rain-gauge networks. Flood inundation is performed through coupling a hydrological rainfall-runoff (RR) model (HEC-HMS) with a hydraulic model (HEC-RAS). The RR model is calibrated against the January 2013 flood event in the Awali River basin, Lebanon (300 km2), whose flood peak discharge was estimated by post-event measurements. The resulting flows of the RR model are defined as boundary conditions of the hydraulic model, which is run to generate the corresponding water surface profiles and calibrated against 20 post-event surveyed cross sections after the January-2013 flood event. An uncertainty analysis is performed to assess the results of the models. Consequently, the coupled flood inundation model is simulated with design storms and flood inundation maps are generated of defined exceedance probabilities. The peak discharges estimated by the simulated RR model were in close agreement with the results from different empirical and statistical methods. This methodology can be extended to other poorly gauged basins facing common stage-gauge failure or characterized by floods with a stage exceeding the gauge measurement level, or higher than that defined by the rating curve.

  1. Simulating events

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Ferretti, C; Bruzzone, L [Techint Italimpianti, Milan (Italy)

    2000-06-01

    The Petacalco Marine terminal on the Pacific coast in the harbour of Lazaro Carclenas (Michoacan) in Mexico, provides coal to the thermoelectric power plant at Pdte Plutarco Elias Calles in the port area. The plant is being converted from oil to burn coal to generate 2100 MW of power. The article describes the layout of the terminal and equipment employed in the unloading, coal stacking, coal handling areas and the receiving area at the power plant. The contractor Techint Italimpianti has developed a software system, MHATIS, for marine terminal management which is nearly complete. The discrete event simulator with its graphic interface provides a real-type decision support system for simulating changes to the terminal operations and evaluating impacts. The article describes how MHATIS is used. 7 figs.

  2. Cluster cosmology with next-generation surveys.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Ascaso, B.

    2017-03-01

    The advent of next-generation surveys will provide a large number of cluster detections that will serve the basis for constraining cos mological parameters using cluster counts. The main two observational ingredients needed are the cluster selection function and the calibration of the mass-observable relation. In this talk, we present the methodology designed to obtain robust predictions of both ingredients based on realistic cosmological simulations mimicking the following next-generation surveys: J-PAS, LSST and Euclid. We display recent results on the selection functions for these mentioned surveys together with others coming from other next-generation surveys such as eROSITA, ACTpol and SPTpol. We notice that the optical and IR surveys will reach the lowest masses between 0.3simulations, obtaining similar scatter to other observational results limited to higher redshifts. Finally, we describe the technique that we are developing to perform a Fisher Matrix analysis to provide cosmological constraints for the considered next-generation surveys and introduce very preliminary results.

  3. SURVEY, BUFFALO COUNTY, NE

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  4. Patient survey (HCAHPS) - National

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — The national average for the HCAHPS survey categories. HCAHPS is a national, standardized survey of hospital patients about their experiences during a recent...

  5. Survey, OCONEE COUNTY, SC

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  6. SURVEY, DOUGLAS COUNTY, MN

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  7. GDOT employee survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    2017-07-04

    The research team worked in collaboration with GDOT to conduct the 2016 GDOT Employee Survey. This research study aimed to increase the response rate and the usefulness of the feedback from the GDOT employee survey to support organizational decisions...

  8. SURVEY, KENAI PENINSULSA, AK

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  9. SURVEY, BROADWATER COUNTY, MT

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  10. SURVEY, OSCEOLA COUNTY, FLORIDA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  11. SURVEY, POTTAWATTAMIE COUNTY, IA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  12. Large Pelagics Intercept Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The Large Pelagics Intercept Survey (LPIS) is a dockside survey of private and charterboat captains who have just completed fishing trips directed at large pelagic...

  13. MAX and Survey Linkages

    Data.gov (United States)

    U.S. Department of Health & Human Services — CMS is interested in linking MAX files with survey data, including four surveys conducted by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) - the National Health...

  14. SURVEY, LAKE COUNTY, MT

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  15. NGS Survey Control Map

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The NGS Survey Control Map provides a map of the US which allows you to find and display geodetic survey control points stored in the database of the National...

  16. SURVEY, Lowndes County, MS

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  17. SURVEY, REFUGIO COUNTY, TEXAS

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  18. SURVEY, FAIRFIELD COUNTY, CT

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  19. Designing an Effective Survey

    National Research Council Canada - National Science Library

    Kasunic, Mark

    2005-01-01

    ... of them. However, to protect the validity of conclusions drawn from a survey, certain procedures must be followed throughout the process of designing, developing, and distributing the survey questionnaire...

  20. Sea Scallop Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Department of Commerce — The standardized NEFSC Sea Scallop Survey began in 1980 and has covered an area from Cape Hatteras to Georges Bank. The survey aims to determine the distribution and...

  1. SURVEY, MISSOULA COUNTY, MT

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  2. SURVEY, Northumberland County, VA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — The field survey data for this coastal study includes a field report that exhibits photos and transect information collected in the field survey phase of the study....

  3. SURVEY, BARNSTABLE COUNTY, MA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  4. SURVEY, CASCADE COUNTY, MT

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  5. SURVEY, NATCHITOCHES PARISH, USA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  6. SURVEY, HOLMES COUNTY, MS

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  7. Iowa Intensive Archaeological Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    Iowa State University GIS Support and Research Facility — This shape file contains intensive level archaeological survey areas for the state of Iowa. All intensive Phase I surveys that are submitted to the State Historic...

  8. SURVEY, MONO COUNTY, CALIFORNIA

    Data.gov (United States)

    Federal Emergency Management Agency, Department of Homeland Security — Survey data includes spatial datasets and data tables necessary to digitally represent data collected in the survey phase of the study. (Source: FEMA Guidelines and...

  9. Manufactured Porous Ambient Surface Simulants

    Science.gov (United States)

    Carey, Elizabeth M.; Peters, Gregory H.; Chu, Lauren; Zhou, Yu Meng; Cohen, Brooklin; Panossian, Lara; Green, Jacklyn R.; Moreland, Scott; Backes, Paul

    2016-01-01

    The planetary science decadal survey for 2013-2022 (Vision and Voyages, NRC 2011) has promoted mission concepts for sample acquisition from small solar system bodies. Numerous comet-sampling tools are in development to meet this standard. Manufactured Porous Ambient Surface Simulants (MPASS) materials provide an opportunity to simulate variable features at ambient temperatures and pressures to appropriately test potential sample acquisition systems for comets, asteroids, and planetary surfaces. The original "flavor" of MPASS materials is known as Manufactured Porous Ambient Comet Simulants (MPACS), which was developed in parallel with the development of the Biblade Comet Sampling System (Backes et al., in review). The current suite of MPACS materials was developed through research of the physical and mechanical properties of comets from past comet missions results and modeling efforts, coordination with the science community at the Jet Propulsion Laboratory and testing of a wide range of materials and formulations. These simulants were required to represent the physical and mechanical properties of cometary nuclei, based on the current understanding of the science community. Working with cryogenic simulants can be tedious and costly; thus MPACS is a suite of ambient simulants that yields a brittle failure mode similar to that of cryogenic icy materials. Here we describe our suite of comet simulants known as MPACS that will be used to test and validate the Biblade Comet Sampling System (Backes et al., in review).

  10. GIS-Based KW-GIUH hydrological model of semiarid catchments: The case of Faria Catchment, Palestine

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Shadeed, S.; Shaheen, H.; Jayyousi, A.

    2007-01-01

    Among the most basic challenges of hydrology are the quantitative understanding of the processes of runoff generation and prediction of flow hydrographs. Traditional techniques have been widely applied for the estimation of runoff hydrographs of gauged catchments using historical rainfall-runoff data and unit hydrographs. Such procedures are questioned as to their reliability and their application to ungauged, arid and semiarid catchments. To overcome such difficulties, the use of physically based rainfall-runoff process of Faria Catchment using the lately developed KW-GIUH. Faria catchment, located in the northeastern part of the West Bank, Palestine, is characterized as a semiarid region with annual rainfall depths ranging on average from 150 to 640 mm at both ends of the catchment. The Geographical Information System (GIS) techniques were used to shape the geomorphological features of the catchment. A GIS based KW-GIUH hydrological model was used to stimulate the rainfall-runoff process in the three sub-catchments of Faria, namely: Al-Badan, Al-Faria and Al-Malaqi. The simulated runoff hydrographs proved that the GIS-based KW-GIUH model is applicable to semiarid regions and can be used to estimate the unit hydrographs in the West Bank catchments. (author)

  11. Simulating Galaxies and Active Galactic Nuclei in the LSST Image Simulation Effort

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Pizagno II, Jim; Ahmad, Z.; Bankert, J.; Bard, D.; Connolly, A.; Chang, C.; Gibson, R. R.; Gilmore, K.; Grace, E.; Hannel, M.; Jernigan, J. G.; Jones, L.; Kahn, S. M.; Krughoff, S. K.; Lorenz, S.; Marshall, S.; Shmakova, S. M.; Sylvestri, N.; Todd, N.; Young, M.

    We present an extragalactic source catalog, which includes galaxies and Active Galactic Nuclei, that is used for the Large Survey Synoptic Telescope Imaging Simulation effort. The galaxies are taken from the De Lucia et. al. (2006) semi-analytic modeling (SAM) of the Millennium Simulation. The LSST

  12. Learner Satisfaction in Marketing Simulation Games: Antecedents and Influencers

    Science.gov (United States)

    Caruana, Albert; La Rocca, Antonella; Snehota, Ivan

    2016-01-01

    Simulation games have become widespread in business courses, yet the understanding of their learning effects remains limited. The effectiveness of using simulation in marketing classes is not uniform, and not all students welcome it to the same extent. Drawing on a survey among 173 students engaged in a simulation game as part of a course in a…

  13. Massachusetts reservoir simulation tool—User’s manual

    Science.gov (United States)

    Levin, Sara B.

    2016-10-06

    IntroductionThe U.S. Geological Survey developed the Massachusetts Reservoir Simulation Tool to examine the effects of reservoirs on natural streamflows in Massachusetts by simulating the daily water balance of reservoirs. The simulation tool was developed to assist environmental managers to better manage water withdrawals in reservoirs and to preserve downstream aquatic habitats.

  14. Primer on Health Surveys

    OpenAIRE

    David L Nordstrom; David L Nordstrom

    2012-01-01

    The aim of this paper is to introduce novice researchers to surveys as a method of data collection. It starts with the definition of a survey, its major purposes and types as well as changes in the goals surveys have helped to achieve over time. Advantages and disadvantages of surveys over population censuses and medical examinations are discussed. Approaches to questionnaire construction are introduced along with properties that questionnaires are evaluated for. Modes of administration, sam...

  15. Surveying ethnic minorities

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Joost Kappelhof

    2015-01-01

    Obtaining accurate survey data on ethnic minorities is not easy. Ethnic minorities are usually underrepresented in surveys, and it is moreover not certain that those who do take part in surveys are representative of the group the researcher is interested in. For example, is it only people with

  16. GIS Readiness Survey 2014

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Schrøder, Lise; Hvingel, Line Træholt; Hansen, Henning Sten

    2014-01-01

    The GIS Readiness Survey 2014 is a follow-up to the corresponding survey that was carried out among public institutions in Denmark in 2009. The present survey thus provides an updated image of status and challenges in relation to the use of spatial information, the construction of the com- mon...

  17. Conducting online surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Selm, M. van; Jankowski, N.W.

    2006-01-01

    The World Wide Web (WWW) is increasingly being used as a tool and platform for survey research. Two types of electronic or online surveys available for data collection are the email and Web based survey, and they constitute the focus of this paper. We address a multitude of issues researchers should

  18. A Subaru galaxy redshift survey: WFMOS survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Takada, M

    2008-01-01

    A planned galaxy redshift survey with the Subaru 8.2m telescope, the WFMOS survey, offers a unique opportunity for probing detailed properties of large-scale structure formation in the expanding universe by measuring clustering strength of galaxy distribution as a function of distance scale and redshift. In particular, the precise measurement of the galaxy power spectrum, combined with the cosmic microwave background experiments, allows us to obtain stringent constraints on or even determine absolute mass scales of the Big-Bang relic neutrinos as the neutrinos imprint characteristic scale- and redshift-dependent modifications onto the galaxy power spectrum shape. Here we describe the basic concept of how the galaxy clustering measurement can be used to explore the neutrino masses, with particular emphasis on advantages of the WFMOS survey over the existing low-redshift surveys such as SDSS

  19. Environmental Survey preliminary report

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1988-04-01

    This report presents the preliminary findings from the first phase of the Environmental Survey of the United States Department of Energy (DOE) Sandia National Laboratories conducted August 17 through September 4, 1987. The objective of the Survey is to identify environmental problems and areas of environmental risk associated with Sandia National Laboratories-Albuquerque (SNLA). The Survey covers all environmental media and all areas of environmental regulation. It is being performed in accordance with the DOE Environmental Survey Manual. This phase of the Survey involves the review of existing site environmental data, observations of the operations carried on at SNLA, and interviews with site personnel. 85 refs., 49 figs., 48 tabs.

  20. Primer on Health Surveys

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    David L Nordstrom

    2012-06-01

    Full Text Available The aim of this paper is to introduce novice researchers to surveys as a method of data collection. It starts with the definition of a survey, its major purposes and types as well as changes in the goals surveys have helped to achieve over time. Advantages and disadvantages of surveys over population censuses and medical examinations are discussed. Approaches to questionnaire construction are introduced along with properties that questionnaires are evaluated for. Modes of administration, sample size issues, and data analysis approaches are also introduced. The primer is illustrated with examples of surveys conducted in different countries with various public health purposes.

  1. Developing the online survey.

    Science.gov (United States)

    Gordon, Jeffry S; McNew, Ryan

    2008-12-01

    Institutions of higher education are now using Internet-based technology tools to conduct surveys for data collection. Research shows that the type and quality of responses one receives with online surveys are comparable with what one receives in paper-based surveys. Data collection can take place on Web-based surveys, e-mail-based surveys, and personal digital assistants/Smartphone devices. Web surveys can be subscription templates, software packages installed on one's own server, or created from scratch using Web programming development tools. All of these approaches have their advantages and disadvantages. The survey owner must make informed decisions as to the right technology to implement. The correct choice can save hours of work in sorting, organizing, and analyzing data.

  2. Neuromechanical simulation

    Directory of Open Access Journals (Sweden)

    Donald H Edwards

    2010-07-01

    Full Text Available The importance of the interaction between the body and the brain for the control of behavior has been recognized in recent years with the advent of neuromechanics, a field in which the coupling between neural and biomechanical processes is an explicit focus. A major tool used in neuromechanics is simulation, which connects computational models of neural circuits to models of an animal’s body situated in a virtual physical world. This connection closes the feedback loop that links the brain, the body, and the world through sensory stimuli, muscle contractions and body movement. Neuromechanical simulations enable investigators to explore the dynamical relationships between the brain, the body, and the world in ways that are difficult or impossible through experiment alone. Studies in a variety of animals have permitted the analysis of extremely complex and dynamic neuromechanical systems, they have demonstrated that the nervous system functions synergistically with the mechanical properties of the body, they have examined hypotheses that are difficult to test experimentally, and they have explored the role of sensory feedback in controlling complex mechanical systems with many degrees of freedom. Each of these studies confronts a common set of questions: (i how to abstract key features of the body, the world and the CNS in a useful model, (ii how to ground model parameters in experimental reality, (iii how to optimize the model and identify points of sensitivity and insensitivity, and (iv how to share neuromechanical models for examination, testing, and extension by others.

  3. Biomass Gasifier for Computer Simulation; Biomassa foergasare foer Computer Simulation

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Hansson, Jens; Leveau, Andreas; Hulteberg, Christian [Nordlight AB, Limhamn (Sweden)

    2011-08-15

    This report is an effort to summarize the existing data on biomass gasifiers as the authors have taken part in various projects aiming at computer simulations of systems that include biomass gasification. Reliable input data is paramount for any computer simulation, but so far there is no easy-accessible biomass gasifier database available for this purpose. This study aims at benchmarking current and past gasifier systems in order to create a comprehensive database for computer simulation purposes. The result of the investigation is presented in a Microsoft Excel sheet, so that the user easily can implement the data in their specific model. In addition to provide simulation data, the technology is described briefly for every studied gasifier system. The primary pieces of information that are sought for are temperatures, pressures, stream compositions and energy consumption. At present the resulting database contains 17 gasifiers, with one or more gasifier within the different gasification technology types normally discussed in this context: 1. Fixed bed 2. Fluidised bed 3. Entrained flow. It also contains gasifiers in the range from 100 kW to 120 MW, with several gasifiers in between these two values. Finally, there are gasifiers representing both direct and indirect heating. This allows for a more qualified and better available choice of starting data sets for simulations. In addition to this, with multiple data sets available for several of the operating modes, sensitivity analysis of various inputs will improve simulations performed. However, there have been fewer answers to the survey than expected/hoped for, which could have improved the database further. However, the use of online sources and other public information has to some extent counterbalanced the low response frequency of the survey. In addition to that, the database is preferred to be a living document, continuously updated with new gasifiers and improved information on existing gasifiers.

  4. Next Generation Simulation Training for Pararescue Forces

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-02-13

    design, and analysis as well as the build out of its information technology systems and training infrastructure at its Design and Development Center...sessions conducted immediately after training. • Written feedback – Obtained through a web-based survey tool (SurveyMonkey) Data Analysis : Analysis of the...brevity, being detailed in a classical Strengths, Weatknesses, Opportunities, Threats ( SWOT ) structure. STRENGTHS: Identified strengths of the simulation

  5. Web survey methodology

    CERN Document Server

    Callegaro, Mario; Vehovar, Asja

    2015-01-01

    Web Survey Methodology guides the reader through the past fifteen years of research in web survey methodology. It both provides practical guidance on the latest techniques for collecting valid and reliable data and offers a comprehensive overview of research issues. Core topics from preparation to questionnaire design, recruitment testing to analysis and survey software are all covered in a systematic and insightful way. The reader will be exposed to key concepts and key findings in the literature, covering measurement, non-response, adjustments, paradata, and cost issues. The book also discusses the hottest research topics in survey research today, such as internet panels, virtual interviewing, mobile surveys and the integration with passive measurements, e-social sciences, mixed modes and business intelligence. The book is intended for students, practitioners, and researchers in fields such as survey and market research, psychological research, official statistics and customer satisfaction research.

  6. Aerial radiation survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Pradeep Kumar, K.S.

    1998-01-01

    Aerial gamma spectrometry surveys are the most effective, comprehensive and preferred tool to delimit the large area surface contamination in a radiological emergency either due to a nuclear accident or following a nuclear strike. The airborne survey apart from providing rapid and economical evaluation of ground contamination over large areas due to larger ground clearance and higher speed, is the only technique to overcome difficulties posed by ground surveys of inaccessible region. The aerial survey technique can also be used for searching of lost radioactive sources, tracking of radioactive plume and generation of background data on the Emergency Planning Zone (EPZ) of nuclear installations

  7. Survey of photovoltaic systems

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    1979-08-01

    In developing this survey of photovoltaic systems, the University of Alabama in Huntsville assembled a task team to perform an extensive telephone survey of all known photovoltaic manufacturers. Three US companies accounted for 77% of the total domestic sales in 1978. They are Solarex Corporation, Solar Power Croporation, and ARCO Solar, Inc. This survey of solar photovoltaic (P/V) manufacturers and suppliers consists of three parts: a catalog of suppliers arranged alphabetically, data sheets on specific products, and typical operating, installation, or maintenance instructions and procedures. This report does not recommend or endorse any company product or information presented within as the results of this survey.

  8. Management Satisfaction Survey

    Data.gov (United States)

    Office of Personnel Management — The Chief Human Capital Officers' Managers' Satisfaction Survey asks managers to rate their perception of workforce planning, interaction with and levels of support...

  9. A Survey of the Innovation Surveys

    NARCIS (Netherlands)

    Hong, Shangqin; Oxley, Les; McCann, Philip

    Both theoretical and conceptual understanding of innovation has developed significantly since the early 1980s. More noticeable, however, are the major changes that have been experienced in empirically-oriented innovation research as a result of the introduction of firm level innovation surveys.

  10. Critical Infrastructure Protection and Resilience Literature Survey: Modeling and Simulation

    Science.gov (United States)

    2014-11-01

    Strategy A literature search was conducted in the Scopus , IE Compendex, Inspec and National Technical Information Service (NTIS) databases. The basic...scores should also be accompanied by a review of actual values over time wherever possible. 7.4 Sources Consulted Licensed databases: Scopus EI

  11. A survey of Strong Convergent Schemes for the Simulation of ...

    African Journals Online (AJOL)

    PROF. OLIVER OSUAGWA

    2014-12-01

    Dec 1, 2014 ... 1Department of Mathematics and Computer Science, Benue State University, Makurdi, , 2Department of. Mathematics ... modelling stochastic processes in applied mathematics ..... symbolic computations through its symbolic ...

  12. American Housing Survey (AHS)

    Science.gov (United States)

    Employment and Payroll Survey of Business Owners Work from Home Our statistics highlight trends in household statistics from multiple surveys. Data Tools & Apps Main American FactFinder Census Business Builder My Classification Codes (i.e., NAICS) Economic Census Economic Indicators Economic Studies Industry Statistics

  13. Our Surveys & Programs

    Science.gov (United States)

    Employment and Payroll Survey of Business Owners Work from Home Our statistics highlight trends in household statistics from multiple surveys. Data Tools & Apps Main American FactFinder Census Business Builder My Classification Codes (i.e., NAICS) Economic Census Economic Indicators Economic Studies Industry Statistics

  14. Marine gamma spectrometric survey

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Kostoglodov, V.V.

    1979-01-01

    Presented are theoretical problems physical and geochemical prerequisites and possibilities of practical application of the method of continuous submarine gamma-spectrometric survey and radiometric survey destined for rapid study of the surface layer of marine sediments. Shown is high efficiency and advantages of this method in comparison with traditional and widely spread in marine geology methods of bottom sediments investigation

  15. IT Barometer survey, Denmark

    DEFF Research Database (Denmark)

    Howard, Rob

    1998-01-01

    Survey results from Danish architects, engineers, contractors and property managers in the construction industry concerning their use of computers, communications, problems and needs.......Survey results from Danish architects, engineers, contractors and property managers in the construction industry concerning their use of computers, communications, problems and needs....

  16. Cosmology with cluster surveys

    Indian Academy of Sciences (India)

    Abstract. Surveys of clusters of galaxies provide us with a powerful probe of the den- sity and nature of the dark energy. The red-shift distribution of detected clusters is highly sensitive to the dark energy equation of state parameter w. Upcoming Sunyaev–. Zel'dovich (SZ) surveys would provide us large yields of clusters to ...

  17. Simulation and Non-Simulation Based Human Reliability Analysis Approaches

    Energy Technology Data Exchange (ETDEWEB)

    Boring, Ronald Laurids [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Shirley, Rachel Elizabeth [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Joe, Jeffrey Clark [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States); Mandelli, Diego [Idaho National Lab. (INL), Idaho Falls, ID (United States)

    2014-12-01

    Part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) Program, the Risk-Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) Pathway develops approaches to estimating and managing safety margins. RISMC simulations pair deterministic plant physics models with probabilistic risk models. As human interactions are an essential element of plant risk, it is necessary to integrate human actions into the RISMC risk model. In this report, we review simulation-based and non-simulation-based human reliability assessment (HRA) methods. Chapter 2 surveys non-simulation-based HRA methods. Conventional HRA methods target static Probabilistic Risk Assessments for Level 1 events. These methods would require significant modification for use in dynamic simulation of Level 2 and Level 3 events. Chapter 3 is a review of human performance models. A variety of methods and models simulate dynamic human performance; however, most of these human performance models were developed outside the risk domain and have not been used for HRA. The exception is the ADS-IDAC model, which can be thought of as a virtual operator program. This model is resource-intensive but provides a detailed model of every operator action in a given scenario, along with models of numerous factors that can influence operator performance. Finally, Chapter 4 reviews the treatment of timing of operator actions in HRA methods. This chapter is an example of one of the critical gaps between existing HRA methods and the needs of dynamic HRA. This report summarizes the foundational information needed to develop a feasible approach to modeling human interactions in the RISMC simulations.

  18. The VLA Sky Survey

    Science.gov (United States)

    Lacy, Mark; VLASS Survey Team, VLASS Survey Science Group

    2018-01-01

    The VLA Sky Survey (VLASS), which began in September 2017, is a seven year project to image the entire sky north of Declination -40 degrees in three epochs. The survey is being carried out in I,Q and U polarization at a frequency of 2-4GHz, and a resolution of 2.5 arcseconds, with each epoch being separated by 32 months. Raw data from the survey, along with basic "quicklook" images are made freely available shortly after observation. Within a few months, NRAO will begin making available further basic data products, including refined images and source lists. In this talk I shall describe the science goals and methodology of the survey, the current survey status, and some early results, along with plans for collaborations with external groups to produce enhanced, high level data products.

  19. Physics Survey Overview

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    2002-01-01

    An overview of a series of assignments of the branches of physics carried out by the Board on Physics and Astronomy of the National Research Council. It identifies further theories in physics and makes recommendations on preventive priorities. The Board on Physics and Astronomy (BPA) has conducted a new decadal survey of physics entitled ''Physics in a New Era''. The survey includes assessments of the main branches of physics as well as certain selected emerging areas. The various elements of the survey were prepared by separately-appointed National Research Council (NRC) committees. The BPA formed the Physics Survey Overview Committee (PSOVC) to complete the survey by preparing an overview of the field of physics to summarize and synthesize the results of the various assessments and to address cross-cutting issues that concern physics as a whole

  20. The Dark Energy Survey Data Management System

    International Nuclear Information System (INIS)

    Mohr, Joseph J.; Darnell, J.Anthony; Beldica, Cristina; Barkhouse, Wayne; Bertin, Emmanuel; Dora Cai, Y.; Daues, Gregory E.; Gower, Michelle; Nicolaci da Costa, Luiz A.; Jarvis, Michael; Lin, Huan

    2008-01-01

    The Dark Energy Survey (DES) collaboration will study cosmic acceleration with a 5000 deg2 griZY survey in the southern sky over 525 nights from 2011-2016. The DES data management (DESDM) system will be used to process and archive these data and the resulting science ready data products. The DESDM system consists of an integrated archive, a processing framework, an ensemble of astronomy codes and a data access framework. We are developing the DESDM system for operation in the high performance computing (HPC) environments at the National Center for Supercomputing Applications (NCSA) and Fermilab. Operating the DESDM system in an HPC environment offers both speed and flexibility. We will employ it for our regular nightly processing needs, and for more compute-intensive tasks such as large scale image coaddition campaigns, extraction of weak lensing shear from the full survey dataset, and massive seasonal reprocessing of the DES data. Data products will be available to the Collaboration and later to the public through a virtual-observatory compatible web portal. Our approach leverages investments in publicly available HPC systems, greatly reducing hardware and maintenance costs to the project, which must deploy and maintain only the storage, database platforms and orchestration and web portal nodes that are specific to DESDM. In Fall 2007, we tested the current DESDM system on both simulated and real survey data. We used TeraGrid to process 10 simulated DES nights (3TB of raw data), ingesting and calibrating approximately 250 million objects into the DES Archive database. We also used DESDM to process and calibrate over 50 nights of survey data acquired with the Mosaic2 camera. Comparison to truth tables in the case of the simulated data and internal crosschecks in the case of the real data indicate that astrometric and photometric data quality is excellent